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1

Flood Forecasting Case Study: International Edition  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This module allows users to explore the flood forecasting process by assuming the role of a visiting hydrologist intern at the National Hydrologic Service in Main Country. Fictional senior hydrologists guide the intern through an idealized flooding event that takes place over Main Country's Mainstem river basin and its tributary basins, each with varying landscapes and observation systems. Users will examine how these variations impact the quality and type of forecast that can be achieved. Users will also learn about common problems encountered in flood forecasting, and how to adjust forecasts accordingly. This module is intended for a diverse audience that uses a variety of observing and computing technologies, and builds upon material covered in the foundation topics of the International Basic Hydrologic Sciences Course. These core foundation topics are recommended as a prerequisite since this module assumes some pre-existing knowledge of hydrologic principles.

2014-09-14

2

Flood Forecasting in a Grid Computing Environment  

Microsoft Academic Search

\\u000a This paper presents a prototype of a flood forecasting system based on Grid computing. Flood forecasting is a complex problem\\u000a that requires cooperation and coupling of many simulation models. To enable this coupling in an effective way, a part of the\\u000a CrossGrid project is aimed towards developing a Grid Computing Environment (GCE) for flood forecasting, as described here.\\u000a The Grid

Ladislav Hluchý; Ján Astalos; Miroslav Dobrucký; Ondrej Habala; Branislav Simo; Viet D. Tran

2003-01-01

3

Forecasting Extreme Flooding in South Asia (Invited)  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In most years there is extensive flooding across India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. On average, 40 million people are displaced by floods in India and half that many again in Bangladesh. Occasionally, even more extensive and severe flooding occurs across South Asia. In 2007 and 2008 the Brahmaputra flooded three times causing severe disruption of commerce, agriculture and life in general. Systems set up by an international collaboration predicted these Bangladesh floods with an operational system at the 10 and 15-day horizon. These forecasts determined the risk of flooding and allowed the Bangladeshis in peril to prepare, harvesting crops and storing of household and agricultural assets. Savings in increments of annual income resulted form the forecasts. In July and August 2010, severe flooding occurred in Pakistan causing horrendous damage and loss of life. But these floods were also predictable at the 10-day time scale if the same forecasting system developed for Bangladesh had been implemented. Similar systems could be implemented in India but would require local cooperation. We describe the manner in which quantified probabilistic precipitation forecasts, coupled with hydrological models can provide useful and timely extended warnings of flooding.

Webster, P. J.

2010-12-01

4

Local flood forecasting - From data collection to communicating forecasts  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An important aspect of improving resilience to flooding is the provision of timely warnings to flood sensitive locations thus allowing mitigating measures to be implemented. For specific locations such small communities (often in head water catchments) or river side factories the ability of traditional centralised forecasting systems to provide timely & accurate forecasts may be challenged. This is due in part to the finite resources of monitoring agencies which results in courser spatial scales of model and data collection then may be required for the generation of accurate forecasts. One strategy to improve flood resilience at such locations is to develop automated location specific forecasts. In this presentation we outline a methodology to achieve this based on the installation of adequate telemetered monitoring equipment; generally a water level sensor and a rain gauge. This allows the construction of a local flood forecasting model which may be coupled with available precipitation forecasts. The construction of the hydrological forecasting model consists of a guided process which incorporates both data assimilation and the representation of the forecast uncertainty based on post processing. The guided process requires the modeller to make only a few choices thus allowing rapid model deployment and revision. To be of use the derived forecasts must be made available in real time and updated frequently; maybe every five minutes. Traditional practices in issuing warnings dependent on expert interpretation must therefore be altered so that those at the site of interest become their own `experts'. To aid this appropriate presentation of both the predictions and past performance of the model, designed to encourage realistic interpretation of the forecasts and their uncertainties is considered. The resulting forecast chain is demonstrated on UK case studies.

Smith, P. J.; Beven, K.

2013-12-01

5

Flood Forecasting in River System Using ANFIS  

SciTech Connect

The aim of the present study is to investigate applicability of artificial intelligence techniques such as ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) in forecasting flood flow in a river system. The proposed technique combines the learning ability of neural network with the transparent linguistic representation of fuzzy system. The technique is applied to forecast discharge at a downstream station using flow information at various upstream stations. A total of three years data has been selected for the implementation of this model. ANFIS models with various input structures and membership functions are constructed, trained and tested to evaluate efficiency of the models. Statistical indices such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Correlation Coefficient (CORR) and Coefficient of Efficiency (CE) are used to evaluate performance of the ANFIS models in forecasting river flood. The values of the indices show that ANFIS model can accurately and reliably be used to forecast flood in a river system.

Ullah, Nazrin; Choudhury, P. [Dept. of Civil Eng., NIT, Silchar (India)

2010-10-26

6

Flood Forecasting in River System Using ANFIS  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The aim of the present study is to investigate applicability of artificial intelligence techniques such as ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) in forecasting flood flow in a river system. The proposed technique combines the learning ability of neural network with the transparent linguistic representation of fuzzy system. The technique is applied to forecast discharge at a downstream station using flow information at various upstream stations. A total of three years data has been selected for the implementation of this model. ANFIS models with various input structures and membership functions are constructed, trained and tested to evaluate efficiency of the models. Statistical indices such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Correlation Coefficient (CORR) and Coefficient of Efficiency (CE) are used to evaluate performance of the ANFIS models in forecasting river flood. The values of the indices show that ANFIS model can accurately and reliably be used to forecast flood in a river system.

Ullah, Nazrin; Choudhury, P.

2010-10-01

7

USE OF MESOSCALE WEATHER FORECASTING FOR EARLY FLOOD WARNING ON EUROPEAN SCALE  

Microsoft Academic Search

SUMMARY The European Flood Forecasting System project (EFFS) aims at developing a prototype of an integrated European flood forecasting system. This Pan-European early flood warning system is to provide National Water Authorities, Civil Protection Authorities and international aid-organisations with a large lead-time to prepare for possible flood crises. The broad objectives of the still ongoing project are to use operationally

A. de Roo; J. Thielen; B. Gouweleeuw; G. Schmuck

8

Probabilistic Flash Flood Forecasting using Stormscale Ensembles  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flash flooding is one of the most costly and deadly natural hazards in the US and across the globe. The loss of life and property from flash floods could be mitigated with better guidance from hydrological models, but these models have limitations. For example, they are commonly initialized using rainfall estimates derived from weather radars, but the time interval between observations of heavy rainfall and a flash flood can be on the order of minutes, particularly for small basins in urban settings. Increasing the lead time for these events is critical for protecting life and property. Therefore, this study advances the use of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) from a stormscale NWP ensemble system into a distributed hydrological model setting to yield basin-specific, probabilistic flash flood forecasts (PFFFs). Rainfall error characteristics of the individual members are first diagnosed and quantified in terms of structure, amplitude, and location (SAL; Wernli et al., 2008). Amplitude and structure errors are readily correctable due to their diurnal nature, and the fine scales represented by the CAPS QPF members are consistent with radar-observed rainfall, mainly showing larger errors with afternoon convection. To account for the spatial uncertainty of the QPFs, we use an elliptic smoother, as in Marsh et al. (2012), to produce probabilistic QPFs (PQPFs). The elliptic smoother takes into consideration underdispersion, which is notoriously associated with stormscale ensembles, and thus, is good for targeting the approximate regions that may receive heavy rainfall. However, stormscale details contained in individual members are still needed to yield reasonable flash flood simulations. Therefore, on a case study basis, QPFs from individual members are then run through the hydrological model with their predicted structure and corrected amplitudes, but the locations of individual rainfall elements are perturbed within the PQPF elliptical regions using Monte Carlo sampling. This yields an ensemble of flash flood simulations. These simulated flows are compared to historically-based flow thresholds at each grid point to identify basin scales most susceptible to flash flooding, therefore, deriving PFFF products. This new approach is shown to: 1) identify the specific basin scales within the broader regions that are forecast to be impacted by flash flooding based on cell movement, rainfall intensity, duration, and the basin's susceptibility factors such as initial soil moisture conditions; 2) yield probabilistic information about on the forecast hydrologic response; and 3) improve lead time by using stormscale NWP ensemble forecasts.

Hardy, J.; Gourley, J. J.; Kain, J. S.; Clark, A.; Novak, D.; Hong, Y.

2013-12-01

9

Timetable of an operational flood forecasting system  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

At present a new underground part of Zurich main station is under construction. For this purpose the runoff capacity of river Sihl, which is passing beneath the main station, is reduced by 40%. If a flood is to occur the construction site is evacuated and gates can be opened for full runoff capacity to prevent bigger damages. However, flooding the construction site, even if it is controlled, is coupled with costs and retardation. The evacuation of the construction site at Zurich main station takes about 2 to 4 hours and opening the gates takes another 1 to 2 hours each. In the upper part of the 336 km2 Sihl catchment the Sihl lake, a reservoir lake, is situated. It belongs and is used by the Swiss Railway Company for hydropower production. This lake can act as a retention basin for about 46% of the Sihl catchment. Lowering the lake level to gain retention capacity, and therewith safety, is coupled with direct loss for the Railway Company. To calculate the needed retention volume and the water to be released facing unfavourable weather conditions, forecasts with a minimum lead time of 2 to 3 days are needed. Since the catchment is rather small, this can only be realised by the use of meteorological forecast data. Thus the management of the construction site depends on accurate forecasts to base their decisions on. Therefore an operational hydrological ensemble prediction system (HEPS) was introduced in September 2008 by the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL). It delivers daily discharge forecasts with a time horizon of 5 days. The meteorological forecasts are provided by MeteoSwiss and stem from the operational limited-area COSMO-LEPS which downscales the ECMWF ensemble prediction system to a spatial resolution of 7 km. Additional meteorological data for model calibration and initialisation (air temperature, precipitation, water vapour pressure, global radiation, wind speed and sunshine duration) and radar data are also provided by MeteoSwiss. Additional meteorological and hydrological observations are provided by a hydropower company, the Canton of Zurich and the Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN). The hydrological forecasting is calculated by the semi-distributed hydrological model PREVAH (Precipitation-Runoff-EVapotranspiration-HRU-related Model) and is further processed by the hydraulic model FLORIS. Finally the forecasts and alerts along with additional meteorological and hydrological observations and forecasts from collaborating institution are sent to a webserver accessible for decision makers. We will document the setup of our operational flood forecasting system, evaluate its performance and show how the collaboration and communication between science and practice, including all the different interests, works for this particular example.

Liechti, Katharina; Jaun, Simon; Zappa, Massimiliano

2010-05-01

10

Reliability of An Hydrometeorological Flood Forecasting Procedure  

Microsoft Academic Search

A flood forecasting procedure, based on the coupling of numerical weather prediction to hydrological rainfall-runoff models, is presented. The aim of this research is to evaluate the reliability of the proposed procedure. A meteorological limited area model (LAM), with 10x10 km2 spatial resolution and 1 hour temporal resolution, has been used. The procedure has been applied to the case-study basins

G. Calenda; M. Cerri; M. di Lazzaro; E. Volpi

2002-01-01

11

A data based mechanistic real-time flood forecasting module for NFFS FEWS  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The data based mechanistic (DBM) approach for identifying and estimating rainfall to level, and level to level models has been shown to perform well for flood forecasting in several studies. The DELFT-FEWS open shell operational flood forecasting system provides a framework linking hydrological/meteorological real-time data, real-time forecast models, and a human/computer interaction interface. This infrastructure is used by the UK National Flood Forecasting System (NFFS) and the European Flood Alert System (EFAS) among others. The open shell nature of the FEWS framework has been specifically designed to make it easy to add new forecasting models written as FEWS modules. This paper shows the development of the DBM forecast model as a FEWS module and presents results for the Eden catchment (Cumbria UK) as a case study.

Leedal, D.; Weerts, A. H.; Smith, P. J.; Beven, K. J.

2012-06-01

12

Interactive Forecasting with the National Weather Service River Forecast System  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

The National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) consists of several major hydrometeorologic subcomponents to model the physics of the flow of water through the hydrologic cycle. The entire NWSRFS currently runs in both mainframe and minicomputer environments, using command oriented text input to control the system computations. As computationally powerful and graphically sophisticated scientific workstations became available, the National Weather Service (NWS) recognized that a graphically based, interactive environment would enhance the accuracy and timeliness of NWS river and flood forecasts. Consequently, the operational forecasting portion of the NWSRFS has been ported to run under a UNIX operating system, with X windows as the display environment on a system of networked scientific workstations. In addition, the NWSRFS Interactive Forecast Program was developed to provide a graphical user interface to allow the forecaster to control NWSRFS program flow and to make adjustments to forecasts as necessary. The potential market for water resources forecasting is immense and largely untapped. Any private company able to market the river forecasting technologies currently developed by the NWS Office of Hydrology could provide benefits to many information users and profit from providing these services.

Smith, George F.; Page, Donna

1993-01-01

13

Operational flash flood forecasting platform based on grid technology  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flash flood events of south of France such as the 8th and 9th September 2002 in the Grand Delta territory caused important economic and human damages. Further to this catastrophic hydrological situation, a reform of flood warning services have been initiated (set in 2006). Thus, this political reform has transformed the 52 existing flood warning services (SAC) in 22 flood forecasting services (SPC), in assigning them territories more hydrological consistent and new effective hydrological forecasting mission. Furthermore, national central service (SCHAPI) has been created to ease this transformation and support local services in their new objectives. New functioning requirements have been identified: - SPC and SCHAPI carry the responsibility to clearly disseminate to public organisms, civil protection actors and population, crucial hydrologic information to better anticipate potential dramatic flood event, - a new effective hydrological forecasting mission to these flood forecasting services seems essential particularly for the flash floods phenomenon. Thus, models improvement and optimization was one of the most critical requirements. Initially dedicated to support forecaster in their monitoring mission, thanks to measuring stations and rainfall radar images analysis, hydrological models have to become more efficient in their capacity to anticipate hydrological situation. Understanding natural phenomenon occuring during flash floods mainly leads present hydrological research. Rather than trying to explain such complex processes, the presented research try to manage the well-known need of computational power and data storage capacities of these services. Since few years, Grid technology appears as a technological revolution in high performance computing (HPC) allowing large-scale resource sharing, computational power using and supporting collaboration across networks. Nowadays, EGEE (Enabling Grids for E-science in Europe) project represents the most important effort in term of grid technology development. This paper presents an operational flash flood forecasting platform which have been developed in the framework of CYCLOPS European project providing one of virtual organizations of EGEE project. This platform has been designed to enable multi-simulations processes to ease forecasting operations of several supervised watersheds on Grand Delta (SPC-GD) territory. Grid technology infrastructure, in providing multiple remote computing elements enables the processing of multiple rainfall scenarios, derived to the original meteorological forecasting transmitted by Meteo-France, and their respective hydrological simulations. First results show that from one forecasting scenario, this new presented approach can permit simulations of more than 200 different scenarios to support forecasters in their aforesaid mission and appears as an efficient hydrological decision-making tool. Although, this system seems operational, model validity has to be confirmed. So, further researches are necessary to improve models core to be more efficient in term of hydrological aspects. Finally, this platform could be an efficient tool for developing others modelling aspects as calibration or data assimilation in real time processing.

Thierion, V.; Ayral, P.-A.; Angelini, V.; Sauvagnargues-Lesage, S.; Nativi, S.; Payrastre, O.

2009-04-01

14

Impact of rainfall spatial variability on Flash Flood Forecasting  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

According to the United States National Hazard Statistics database, flooding and flash flooding have caused the largest number of deaths of any weather-related phenomenon over the last 30 years (Flash Flood Guidance Improvement Team, 2003). Like the storms that cause them, flash floods are very variable and non-linear phenomena in time and space, with the result that understanding and anticipating flash flood genesis is far from straightforward. In the U.S., the Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) estimates the average number of inches of rainfall for given durations required to produce flash flooding in the indicated county. In Europe, flash flood often occurred on small catchments (approximately 100 km2) and it has been shown that the spatial variability of rainfall has a great impact on the catchment response (Le Lay and Saulnier, 2007). Therefore, in this study, based on the Flash flood Guidance method, rainfall spatial variability information is introduced in the threshold estimation. As for FFG, the threshold is the number of millimeters of rainfall required to produce a discharge higher than the discharge corresponding to the first level (yellow) warning of the French flood warning service (SCHAPI: Service Central d'Hydrométéorologie et d'Appui à la Prévision des Inondations). The indexes ?1 and ?2 of Zoccatelli et al. (2010), based on the spatial moments of catchment rainfall, are used to characterize the rainfall spatial distribution. Rainfall spatial variability impacts on warning threshold and on hydrological processes are then studied. The spatially distributed hydrological model MARINE (Roux et al., 2011), dedicated to flash flood prediction is forced with synthetic rainfall patterns of different spatial distributions. This allows the determination of a warning threshold diagram: knowing the spatial distribution of the rainfall forecast and therefore the 2 indexes ?1 and ?2, the threshold value is read on the diagram. A warning threshold diagram is built for each studied catchment. The proposed methodology is applied on three Mediterranean catchments often submitted to flash floods. The new forecasting method as well as the Flash Flood Guidance method (uniform rainfall threshold) are tested on 25 flash floods events that had occurred on those catchments. Results show a significant impact of rainfall spatial variability. Indeed, it appears that the uniform rainfall threshold (FFG threshold) always overestimates the observed rainfall threshold. The difference between the FFG threshold and the proposed threshold ranges from 8% to 30%. The proposed methodology allows the calculation of a threshold more representative of the observed one. However, results strongly depend on the related event duration and on the catchment properties. For instance, the impact of the rainfall spatial variability seems to be correlated with the catchment size. According to these results, it seems to be interesting to introduce information on the catchment properties in the threshold calculation. Flash Flood Guidance Improvement Team, 2003. River Forecast Center (RFC) Development Management Team. Final Report. Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD), Silver Spring, Mary-land. Le Lay, M. and Saulnier, G.-M., 2007. Exploring the signature of climate and landscape spatial variabilities in flash flood events: Case of the 8-9 September 2002 Cévennes-Vivarais catastrophic event. Geophysical Research Letters, 34(L13401), doi:10.1029/2007GL029746. Roux, H., Labat, D., Garambois, P.-A., Maubourguet, M.-M., Chorda, J. and Dartus, D., 2011. A physically-based parsimonious hydrological model for flash floods in Mediterranean catchments. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. J1 - NHESS, 11(9), 2567-2582. Zoccatelli, D., Borga, M., Zanon, F., Antonescu, B. and Stancalie, G., 2010. Which rainfall spatial information for flash flood response modelling? A numerical investigation based on data from the Carpathian range, Romania. Journal of Hydrology, 394(1-2), 148-161.

Douinot, Audrey; Roux, Hélène; Garambois, Pierre-André; Larnier, Kevin

2014-05-01

15

Delft FEWS: An open shell flood forecasting platform  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DELFT FEWS is a flood forecasting system developed over several years at Delft Hydraulics. The main philosophy underlying the system is to provide an open shell tool, that allows integration of arbitrary hydrological and river routing models with meteorological data and numerical weather forecasts. In its actual form DELFT-FEWS constitutes a collection of platform-independent software modules, linked to a central database. The database is used to store historical runoff data from gauging stations, and meteorological data from local and synoptic meteorological stations. These can be updated on-line through direct access to national weather services, weather forecast centres and hydro-meteorological services. In addition, the platform is designed to import and convert numerical weather forecasts produced by weather agencies, and interface them with the database. The system incorporates a wide range of algorithms for data verification, interpolation, model updating and data assimilation. These can be employed for data verification and reconstruction of missing values, as well as for pre processing of meteorological data, such that are made ready for use in hydrological models. The various hydrological and routing models are included into the system via appropriate model adapters, that convert data in the database to specific model data formats and vice versa. In this manner a concatenation of various operational and already tested models into model cascades is facilitated within a single and consistent computational framework. To date the system has been successfully tested with various numerical weather forecasts, including deterministic and ensemble forecasts provided by national weather forecast centres and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast. The hydrodynamic river routing module SOBEK, the LISFLOOD suite of raster-based hydrology and hydraulic codes and the well-known HBV hydrological model were included for the computation of the hydrologic response of major river systems. The main application of the forecasting system within the EFFS project is an early warning system for the river Rhine, providing discharge forecasts with a lead-time between 4 and 10 days. Besides application in the EFFS project the system lies at the heart of flood forecasting systems currently under development in The Netherlands, Switzerland and the United Kingdom.

Reggiani, P.; Kwadijk, J. C. J.; Werner, M. G. F.; van Dijk, M. J.; Schellekens, J.; van Kappel, R. R.; Sprokkereef, E.

2003-04-01

16

Real-time application of meteorological ensembles for Danube flood forecasting  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flood forecasting schemes may have the most diverse structure depending on catchment size, response or concentration time and the availability of real time input data. The centre of weight of the hydrological forecasting system is often shifted from hydrological tools to the meteorological observation and forecasting systems. At lowland river sections simple flood routing techniques prevail where accuracy of discharge estimation might depend mostly on the accuracy of upstream discharge estimation. In large river basin systems both elements are present. Attempts are made enabling the use of ensemble of short and medium term meteorological forecast results for real-time flood forecasting by coupling meteorological and hydrological modelling tools. The system is designed in three parts covering the upper and central Danube. The large number of nodes (41) makes the system in fact semi distributed in basin scale. All of the nodes are prepared for forecast purposes. Real time mode runs are carried out in 6 hourly time steps. The available meteorological analysis and forecasting tools are linked to the flood forecasting system. Meteorological forecasts include 6 days and 12 days out of the ECMWF 10-14-day ahead EPS and VarEPS. The hydrological side of the system includes the data ingestion part producing semi distributed catchment wise input from gridded fields and rainfall-runoff, flood routing modules. Operational application of the of the ensemble system has been studied by the comparison of real time deterministic forecast and the experimental real time ensemble forecast results since the summer of 2008 on the river Danube. The period of June-October 2008 included mostly low water period interrupted by smaller floods. The real time ensemble hydrological forecasting experiment proved that the use of meteorological ensembles to produce sets of hydrological predictions increased the capability to issue forecasts with describing current uncertainties. As the result of the demonstration experiment was that the NHFS (VITUKI National Hydrological Forecasting Service of Hungary) system can be used for such a purpose like real-time usage. The relative large number of model runs could be performed within reasonable time. Suggestions are given to adjust appropriate decision support rules to utilise the array of flood forecasts for flood management and warning purposes. The proper estimation of the contribution to forecast error by different modules of the system may help to better understand expected current uncertainty of the forecast. The given research has been partly supported by EC under INTEGRATED PROJECT PREVIEW PREVention, Information and Early Warning Proposal/Contract: 516172. Keywords: real time flood forecast, hydrological ensembles, meteorological ensembles, River Danube, quantitative precipitation forecast, gridded fields, semi-distributed.

Csík, A.; Gauzer, B.; Gnandt, B.; Balint, G.

2009-04-01

17

Flood Hazards - A National Threat  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This USGS Fact Sheet (2006-3026) illustrates the national scope of the risk of flooding events in the US. The vast majority of counties have experienced at least one presidential disaster declaration related to flooding since 1965. The fact sheet examines the risks and how USGS scientists are studying floods in order to reduce future risks to the US population, property, and infrastructure.

USGS

18

The National Collegiate Forecasting Contest  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This undergraduate meteorology tutorial from Texas A&M University explains the basic rules of the National Collegiate Weather Forecasting Contest, the procedure for entering a forecast, and a technique for converting from Greenwich Time to local time.

Nielsen-Gammon, John

1996-01-01

19

Operational flood forecasting system of Umbria Region "Functional Centre  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The hydrometeorological alert office (called "Decentrate Functional Centre" - CFD) of Umbria Region, in central Italy, is the office that provides technical tools able to support decisions when significant flood/landslide events occur, furnishing 24h support for the whole duration of the emergency period, according to the national directive DPCM 27 February 2004 concerning the "Operating concepts for functional management of national and regional alert system during flooding and landslide events for civil protection activities purposes" that designs, within the Italian Civil Defence Emergency Management System, a network of 21 regional Functional Centres coordinated by a central office at the National Civil Protection Department in Rome. Due to its "linking" role between Civil Protection "real time" activities and environmental/planning "deferred time" ones, the Centre is in charge to acquire and collect both real time and quasi-static data: quantitative data from monitoring networks (hydrometeorological stations, meteo radar, ...), meteorological forecasting models output, Earth Observation data, hydraulic and hydrological simulation models, cartographic and thematic GIS data (vectorial and raster type), planning studies related to flooding areas mapping, dam managing plans during flood events, non instrumental information from direct control of "territorial presidium". A detailed procedure for the management of critical events was planned, also in order to define the different role of various authorities and institutions involved. Tiber River catchment, of which Umbria region represents the main upper-medium portion, includes also regional trans-boundary issues very important to cope with, especially for what concerns large dam behavior and management during heavy rainfall. The alert system is referred to 6 different warning areas in which the territory has been divided into and based on a threshold system of three different increasing critical levels according to the expected ground effects: ordinary, moderate and high. Particularly, hydrometric and rainfall thresholds for both floods and landslides alarms were assessed. Based on these thresholds, at the Umbria Region Functional Centre an automatic phone-call and SMS alert system is operating. For a real time flood forecasting system, at the CFD several hydrological and hydraulic models were developed. Three rainfall-runoff hydrological models, using different quantitative meteorological forecasts, are available: the event based models X-Nash (based on the Nash theory) and Mike-Drift coupled with the hydraulic model Mike-11 (developed by the Danish Hydraulic Institute - DHI); and the physically-based continuous model Mobidic (MOdello di Bilancio Idrologico DIstribuito e Continuo - Distributed and Continuous Model for the Hydrological Balance, developed by the University of Florence in cooperation with the Functional Centre of Tuscany Region). Other two hydrological models, using observed data of the real time hydrometeorological network, were implemented: the first one is the rainfall-runoff hydrological model Hec-Hms coupled with the hydraulic model Hec-Ras (United States Army Corps of Engineers - USACE). Moreover, Hec-Hms, is coupled also with a continuous soil moisture model for a more precise evaluation of the antecedent moisture condition of the basin, which is a key factor for a correct runoff volume evaluation. The second one is the routing hydrological model Stafom (STage FOrecasting Model, developed by the Italian Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection of the National Research Council - IRPI-CNR). This model is an adaptive model for on-line stage forecasting for river branches where significant lateral inflow contributions occur and, up to now, it is implemented for the main Tiber River branch and it allows a forecasting lead time up to 10 hours for the downstream river section. Recently, during the period between December the 4th and the 16th 2008, Umbria region territory was interested

Berni, N.; Pandolfo, C.; Stelluti, M.; Ponziani, F.; Viterbo, A.

2009-04-01

20

Flash flood warnings using the ensemble precipitation forecasting technique: A case study on forecasting floods in Taiwan caused by typhoons  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A flash flood is an event that develops rapidly. Given early warnings with sufficient lead time, flood forecasting can help people prepare disaster prevention measures. To provide this early warning, a statistics-based flood forecasting model was developed to evaluate the flooding potential in urban areas using ensemble quantitative precipitation forecasts (the Taiwan Cooperative Precipitation Ensemble Forecast Experiment, TAPEX). The proposed model uses different sources of information, such as (i) the designed capacity of storm sewer systems, (ii) a flood inundation potential database, and (iii) historical flooding observations, to evaluate the potential for flash flooding situations to occur. Using 24-, 48- and 72-h ahead precipitation forecasts from the TAPEX, the proposed model can assess the flooding potential with two levels of risk and at the township scale with a 3-day lead time. The proposed model is applied to Pingtung County, which includes 33 townships and is located in southern Taiwan. A dataset of typhoon storms from 2010 to 2014 was used to evaluate the model performance. The accuracy and threat score for testing events are 0.68 and 0.30, respectively, with a lead time of 24 h. The accuracy and threat score for training events are 0.82 and 0.31, respectively, with a lead time of 24 h. The model performance decreases when the lead time is extended. However, the model demonstrates its potential as a valuable reference to improve emergency responses to alleviate the loss of lives and property due to flooding.

Yang, Tsun-Hua; Yang, Sheng-Chi; Ho, Jui-Yi; Lin, Gwo-Fong; Hwang, Gong-Do; Lee, Cheng-Shang

2015-01-01

21

Understanding uncertainty in distributed flash flood forecasting for semiarid regions  

E-print Network

Understanding uncertainty in distributed flash flood forecasting for semiarid regions Soni Yatheendradas,1 Thorsten Wagener,2 Hoshin Gupta,3 Carl Unkrich,4 David Goodrich,4 Mike Schaffner,5 and Anne. [1] Semiarid flash floods pose a significant danger for life and property in many dry regions around

Wagener, Thorsten

22

MIKE FLOOD WATCH - Managing Real-Time Forecasting  

Microsoft Academic Search

The human and economic losses caused by floods worldwide have increased dramatically over the recent decades. Experience has shown, however, that the losses can be significantly reduced if ample warning is given. The time available from heavy rainfall or snowmelt begins till the flood occurs is often short, so it is important that the forecast calculation and warning dissemination is

Claus Skotner; Anders Klinting; Hans Christian Ammentorp

23

Delft FEWS: An open shell flood forecasting platform  

Microsoft Academic Search

DELFT FEWS is a flood forecasting system developed over several years at Delft Hydraulics. The main philosophy underlying the system is to provide an open shell tool, that allows integration of arbitrary hydrological and river routing models with meteorological data and numerical weather forecasts. In its actual form DELFT-FEWS constitutes a collection of platform-independent software modules, linked to a central

P. Reggiani; J. C. J. Kwadijk; M. G. F. Werner; M. J. van Dijk; J. Schellekens; R. R. van Kappel; E. Sprokkereef

2003-01-01

24

Short-term Ensemble Flood Forecasting Experiments in Brazil  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flood Forecasting and issuing early warnings to communities under risk can help reduce the impacts of those events. However, to be effective, warnings should be given several hours in advance. The best solution to extend the lead time is possibly the use of rainfall-runoff models with input given by rainfall and streamflow observations and by forecasts of future precipitation derived from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Recent studies showed that probabilistic or ensemble flood forecasts produced using ensemble precipitation forecasts as input data outperform deterministic flood forecasts in several cases in Europe and the United States, and ensemble flood forecasting systems are increasingly becoming operational in these regions. In Brazil, on the other hand, operational flood warning systems are rare, and often based on simpli?ed river routing or linear transfer function models. However, a large number of global and regional meteorological models is operationally run covering most of the country, and forecasts of those models are available for recent years. We used this available data to conduct experiments of short term ensemble flood forecasting in the Paraopeba River basin (12 thousand km2), located in Southeastern Brazil. Streamflow forecasts were produced using the MGB-IPH hydrological model, using a simple empirical state updating method and using an ensemble of precipitation forecasts generated by several models, with different initial conditions and parameterizations, from several weather forecasting centers. A single deterministic streamflow forecast, based on a quantitative precipitation forecast derived from the optimal combination of several outputs of NWP models was used as a reference to assess the performance of the ensemble streamflow forecasts. Flood forecasts experiments were performed for three rainy seasons (austral summer) between 2008-2011. The results for predictions of dichotomous events, which mean exceeding or not flood warning thresholds, showed that the upper quantiles of the ensemble (e.g. 80th and 90th quantiles) over performed the deterministic forecast and even the ensemble mean. In most cases we observed an increase in the proportion of correctly forecasted events while keeping false alarm rates at low levels. This benefit was generally higher for higher flow thresholds and for longer lead times, which are the most important situations for flood impact mitigation. In parallel with the ensemble forecasts studies, a forecasting system platform fully coupled to a GIS tool (Mapwindow GIS) is being developed, which facilitates the system operation and interpretation of results. Currently, this system is being tested, however using only deterministic precipitation forecasts, in two large scale river basins in Brazil: the São Francisco River upstream of Pirapora (60 thousand km2) and the Tocantins River (300 thousand km2). Results obtained in the Paraopeba River are now motivating the incorporation of NWP ensemble outputs in these systems to make probabilistic predictions.

Collischonn, Walter; Meller, Adalberto; Fan, Fernando; Moreira, Demerval; Dias, Pedro; Buarque, Diogo; Bravo, Juan

2013-04-01

25

SOM-based Hybrid Neural Network Model for Flood Inundation Extent Forecasting  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In recent years, the increasing frequency and severity of floods caused by climate change and/or land overuse has been reported both nationally and globally. Therefore, estimation of flood depths and extents may provide disaster information for alleviating risk and loss of life and property. The conventional inundation models commonly need a huge amount of computational time to carry out a high resolution spatial inundation map. Moreover, for implementing appropriate mitigation strategies of various flood conditions, different flood scenarios and the corresponding mitigation alternatives are required. Consequently, it is difficult to reach real-time forecast of the inundation extent by conventional inundation models. This study proposed a SOM-RNARX model, for on-line forecasting regional flood inundation depths and extents. The SOM-RNARX model is composed of SOM (Self-Organizing Map) and RNARX (recurrent configuration of nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous inputs). The SOM network categorizes various flood inundation maps of the study area to produce a meaningful regional flood topological map. The RNARX model is built to forecast the total flooded volume of the study area. To find the neuron with the closest total inundated volume to the forecasted total inundated volumes, the forecasted value is used to adjust the weights (inundated depths) of the closest neuron and obtain a regional flood inundation map. The proposed methodology was trained and tested based on a large number of inundation data generated by a well validated two-dimensional simulation model in Yilan County, Taiwan. For comparison, the CHIM (clustering-based hybrid inundation model) model which was issued by Chang et al. (2010) was performed. The major difference between these two models is that CHIM classify flooding characteristics, and SOM-RNARX extracts the relationship between rainfall pattern and flooding spatial distribution. The results show that (1)two models can adequately provide on-line forecasts of 3-h-ahead flood inundation depths in the study area; and (2)SOM-RNARX consistently outperform CHIM in online multistep-ahead inundation forecasts, while SOM-RNARX needs more storage for model parameters than CHIM and increases the loading of database as well.

Chang, Li-Chiu; Shen, Hung-Yu; Chang, Fi-John

2014-05-01

26

Forecasting Severe Floods for the Meghna River Basin  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Accurate prediction of extreme floods in Bangladesh is vital for the agricultural practices and planning in the region, and to provide warnings for evacuation in case of flooding. Hopson and Webster (2010) developed and implemented a short-term flood forecasting scheme in Bangladesh for the Ganges and Brahmaputra basins that performs significantly better than the climatological and persistence forecasts at all lead times. Probabilistic forecast of river discharge at two entry points into Bangladesh of the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers was developed using a hydrologic multimodel initialized by NASA and NOAA rainfall products, whose fluxes were forecasted forward using calibrated ECMWF ensemble prediction system products. We investigate whether extreme floods in the Bangladesh for the Meghna river basin are equally predictable on a 1-15 day time scale. The Hopson and Webster meteorological-hydrological forecast model developed for the Ganges and Brahmaputra basins is calibrated and adapted for the Meghna basin at Bhairab Bazar. It is found that, on 1-15 day time scales, the floods for the summers of 2007-2010 are well predicted.

Toma, V. E.; Jian, J.; Hopson, T. M.; Webster, P. J.

2010-12-01

27

Real-time error correction method combined with combination flood forecasting technique for improving the accuracy of flood forecasting  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flood forecasting has been recognized as one of the most important and reliable ways for flood management. It is therefore necessary to improve the reliability and accuracy of the flood forecasting model. Flood error correction (FEC) and multi-model composition (MC) methods are two effective ways to enhance the model performance. The current focus seems to be on either of these two methods. In this study, we combine these two methods and propose three combined methods, namely flood error correction together with multi-model composition method (FEC-MC), multi-model composition method together with flood error correction (MC-FEC), and global real-time combination method (GRCM). The Three Gorge Reservoir (TGR) and Jinsha River are selected as case studies. First, the flood error correction method and multi-model composition techniques are used separately. Then, the three combined methods are employed. The performances of the five models are compared using the root-mean-square error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency R2, and qualified rate ?. Results show that the combined methods perform better than the single FEC and MC methods. The proposed GRCM method is found to be the most effective method for improving the accuracy of discharge predicted by the flood forecasting model.

Chen, Lu; Zhang, Yongchuan; Zhou, Jianzhong; Singh, Vijay P.; Guo, Shenglian; Zhang, Junhong

2015-02-01

28

Flood forecasting for River Mekong with data-based models  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

many regions of the world, the task of flood forecasting is made difficult because only a limited database is available for generating a suitable forecast model. This paper demonstrates that in such cases parsimonious data-based hydrological models for flood forecasting can be developed if the special conditions of climate and topography are used to advantage. As an example, the middle reach of River Mekong in South East Asia is considered, where a database of discharges from seven gaging stations on the river and 31 rainfall stations on the subcatchments between gaging stations is available for model calibration. Special conditions existing for River Mekong are identified and used in developing first a network connecting all discharge gages and then models for forecasting discharge increments between gaging stations. Our final forecast model (Model 3) is a linear combination of two structurally different basic models: a model (Model 1) using linear regressions for forecasting discharge increments, and a model (Model 2) using rainfall-runoff models. Although the model based on linear regressions works reasonably well for short times, better results are obtained with rainfall-runoff modeling. However, forecast accuracy of Model 2 is limited by the quality of rainfall forecasts. For best results, both models are combined by taking weighted averages to form Model 3. Model quality is assessed by means of both persistence index PI and standard deviation of forecast error.

Shahzad, Khurram M.; Plate, Erich J.

2014-09-01

29

Flood monitoring for ungauged rivers: the power of combining space-based monitoring and global forecasting models  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flood warning systems typically rely on forecasts from national meteorological services and in-situ observations from hydrological gauging stations. This capacity is not equally developed in flood-prone developing countries. Low-cost satellite monitoring systems and global flood forecasting systems can be an alternative source of information for national flood authorities. The Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) has been develop jointly with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) and the Joint Research Centre, and it is running quasi operational now since June 2011. The system couples state-of-the art weather forecasts with a hydrological model driven at a continental scale. The system provides downstream countries with information on upstream river conditions as well as continental and global overviews. In its test phase, this global forecast system provides probabilities for large transnational river flooding at the global scale up to 30 days in advance. It has shown its real-life potential for the first time during the flood in Southeast Asia in 2011, and more recently during the floods in Australia in March 2012, India (Assam, September-October 2012) and Chad Floods (August-October 2012).The Joint Research Centre is working on further research and development, rigorous testing and adaptations of the system to create an operational tool for decision makers, including national and regional water authorities, water resource managers, hydropower companies, civil protection and first line responders, and international humanitarian aid organizations. Currently efforts are being made to link GloFAS to the Global Flood Detection System (GFDS). GFDS is a Space-based river gauging and flood monitoring system using passive microwave remote sensing which was developed by a collaboration between the JRC and Dartmouth Flood Observatory. GFDS provides flood alerts based on daily water surface change measurements from space. Alerts are shown on a world map, with detailed reports for individual gauging sites. A comparison of discharge estimates from the Global Flood Detection System (GFDS) and the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) with observations for representative climatic zones is presented. Both systems have demonstrated strong potential in forecasting and detecting recent catastrophic floods. The usefulness of their combined information on global scale for decision makers at different levels is discussed. Combining space-based monitoring and global forecasting models is an innovative approach and has significant benefits for international river commissions as well as international aid organisations. This is in line with the objectives of the Hyogo and the Post-2015 Framework that aim at the development of systems which involve trans-boundary collaboration, space-based earth observation, flood forecasting and early warning.

Revilla-Romero, Beatriz; Netgeka, Victor; Raynaud, Damien; Thielen, Jutta

2013-04-01

30

Evaluation of flash-flood discharge forecasts in complex terrain using precipitation  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Operational prediction of flash floods produced by thunderstorm (convective) precipitation in mountainous areas requires accurate estimates or predictions of the precipitation distribution in space and time. The details of the spatial distribution are especially critical in complex terrain because the watersheds are generally small in size, and small position errors in the forecast or observed placement of the precipitation can distribute the rain over the wrong watershed. In addition to the need for good precipitation estimates and predictions, accurate flood prediction requires a surface-hydrologic model that is capable of predicting stream or river discharge based on the precipitation-rate input data. Different techniques for the estimation and prediction of convective precipitation will be applied to the Buffalo Creek, Colorado flash flood of July 1996, where over 75 mm of rain from a thunderstorm fell on the watershed in less than 1 h. The hydrologic impact of the precipitation was exacerbated by the fact that a significant fraction of the watershed experienced a wildfire approximately two months prior to the rain event. Precipitation estimates from the National Weather Service's operational Weather Surveillance Radar-Doppler 1988 and the National Center for Atmospheric Research S-band, research, dual-polarization radar, colocated to the east of Denver, are compared. In addition, very short range forecasts from a convection-resolving dynamic model, which is initialized variationally using the radar reflectivity and Doppler winds, are compared with forecasts from an automated-algorithmic forecast system that also employs the radar data. The radar estimates of rain rate, and the two forecasting systems that employ the radar data, have degraded accuracy by virtue of the fact that they are applied in complex terrain. Nevertheless, the radar data and forecasts from the dynamic model and the automated algorithm could be operationally useful for input to surface-hydrologic models employed for flood warning. Precipitation data provided by these various techniques at short time scales and at fine spatial resolutions are employed as detailed input to a distributed-parameter hydrologic model for flash-flood prediction and analysis. With the radar-based precipitation estimates employed as input, the simulated flood discharge was similar to that observed. The dynamic-model precipitation forecast showed the most promise in providing a significant discharge-forecast lead time. The algorithmic system's precipitation forecast did not demonstrate as much skill, but the associated discharge forecast would still have been sufficient to have provided an alert of impending flood danger.

Yates, D.; Warner, T.T.; Brandes, E.A.; Leavesley, G.H.; Sun, J.; Mueller, C.K.

2001-01-01

31

Understanding uncertainty in distributed flash flood forecasting for semiarid regions  

Microsoft Academic Search

Semiarid flash floods pose a significant danger for life and property in many dry regions around the world. One effective way to mitigate flood risk lies in implementing a real-time forecast and warning system based on a rainfall-runoff model. This study used a semiarid, physics-based, and spatially distributed watershed model driven by high-resolution radar rainfall input to evaluate such a

Soni Yatheendradas; Thorsten Wagener; Hoshin Gupta; Carl Unkrich; David Goodrich; Mike Schaffner; Anne Stewart

2008-01-01

32

Flood Forecasting for the Upper and Middle Odra River Basin  

Microsoft Academic Search

The objective of the authors’ work in the area of flood forecasting and distributed modelling is to determine how different\\u000a model formulations and different rainfall inputs contribute to forecast accuracy and uncertainty. To address these issues\\u000a within the EU project FLOODRELIEF, a comprehensive distributed catchment model has been formulated and tested for the upper\\u000a and middle Odra River. Within the

M. Butts; A. Dubicki; K. Stronska; G. JØrgensen; A. Nalberczynski; A. Lewandowski; T. van Kalken

33

Improving real time flood forecasting using fuzzy inference system  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In order to improve the real time forecasting of foods, this paper proposes a modified Takagi Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy inference system termed as threshold subtractive clustering based Takagi Sugeno (TSC-T-S) fuzzy inference system by introducing the concept of rare and frequent hydrological situations in fuzzy modeling system. The proposed modified fuzzy inference systems provide an option of analyzing and computing cluster centers and membership functions for two different hydrological situations, i.e. low to medium flows (frequent events) as well as high to very high flows (rare events) generally encountered in real time flood forecasting. The methodology has been applied for flood forecasting using the hourly rainfall and river flow data of upper Narmada basin, Central India. The available rainfall-runoff data has been classified in frequent and rare events and suitable TSC-T-S fuzzy model structures have been suggested for better forecasting of river flows. The performance of the model during calibration and validation is evaluated by performance indices such as root mean square error (RMSE), model efficiency and coefficient of correlation (R). In flood forecasting, it is very important to know the performance of flow forecasting model in predicting higher magnitude flows. The above described performance criteria do not express the prediction ability of the model precisely from higher to low flow region. Therefore, a new model performance criterion termed as peak percent threshold statistics (PPTS) is proposed to evaluate the performance of a flood forecasting model. The developed model has been tested for different lead periods using hourly rainfall and discharge data. Further, the proposed fuzzy model results have been compared with artificial neural networks (ANN), ANN models for different classes identified by Self Organizing Map (SOM) and subtractive clustering based Takagi Sugeno fuzzy model (SC-T-S fuzzy model). It has been concluded from the study that the TSC-T-S fuzzy model provide reasonably accurate forecast with sufficient lead-time.

Lohani, Anil Kumar; Goel, N. K.; Bhatia, K. K. S.

2014-02-01

34

Impact of precipitation forecast uncertainties and initial soil moisture conditions on a probabilistic flood forecasting chain  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

One of the main difficulties that flood forecasters are faced with is evaluating how errors and uncertainties in forecasted precipitation propagate into streamflow forecast. These errors, must be combined with the effects of different initial soil moisture conditions that generally have a significant impact on the final results of a flood forecast. This is further complicated by the fact that a probabilistic approach is needed, especially when small and medium size basins are considered (the variability of the streamflow scenarios is in fact strongly influenced by the aforementioned factors). Moreover, the ensemble size is a degree of freedom when a precipitation downscaling algorithm is part of the forecast chain. In fact, a change of ensemble size could lead to different final results once the other inputs and parameters are fixed. In this work, a series of synthetic experiments have been designed and implemented to test an operational probabilistic flood forecast system in order to augment the knowledge of how streamflow forecasts can be affected by errors and uncertainties associated with the three aforementioned elements: forecasted rainfall, soil moisture initial conditions, and ensemble size.

Silvestro, Francesco; Rebora, Nicola

2014-11-01

35

Medium Range Ensembles Flood Forecasts for Community Level Applications  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Early warning is a key element for disaster risk reduction. In recent decades, there has been a major advancement in medium range and seasonal forecasting. These could provide a great opportunity to improve early warning systems and advisories for early action for strategic and long term planning. This could result in increasing emphasis on proactive rather than reactive management of adverse consequences of flood events. This can be also very helpful for the agricultural sector by providing a diversity of options to farmers (e.g. changing cropping pattern, planting timing, etc.). An experimental medium range (1-10 days) flood forecasting model has been developed for Bangladesh which provides 51 set of discharge ensembles forecasts of one to ten days with significant persistence and high certainty. This could help communities (i.e. farmer) for gain/lost estimation as well as crop savings. This paper describe the application of ensembles probabilistic flood forecast at the community level for differential decision making focused on agriculture. The framework allows users to interactively specify the objectives and criteria that are germane to a particular situation, and obtain the management options that are possible, and the exogenous influences that should be taken into account before planning and decision making. risk and vulnerability assessment was conducted through community consultation. The forecast lead time requirement, users' needs, impact and management options for crops, livestock and fisheries sectors were identified through focus group discussions, informal interviews and questionnaire survey.

Fakhruddin, S.; Kawasaki, A.; Babel, M. S.; AIT

2013-05-01

36

A first large-scale flood inundation forecasting model  

SciTech Connect

At present continental to global scale flood forecasting focusses on predicting at a point discharge, with little attention to the detail and accuracy of local scale inundation predictions. Yet, inundation is actually the variable of interest and all flood impacts are inherently local in nature. This paper proposes a first large scale flood inundation ensemble forecasting model that uses best available data and modeling approaches in data scarce areas and at continental scales. The model was built for the Lower Zambezi River in southeast Africa to demonstrate current flood inundation forecasting capabilities in large data-scarce regions. The inundation model domain has a surface area of approximately 170k km2. ECMWF meteorological data were used to force the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) macro-scale hydrological model which simulated and routed daily flows to the input boundary locations of the 2-D hydrodynamic model. Efficient hydrodynamic modeling over large areas still requires model grid resolutions that are typically larger than the width of many river channels that play a key a role in flood wave propagation. We therefore employed a novel sub-grid channel scheme to describe the river network in detail whilst at the same time representing the floodplain at an appropriate and efficient scale. The modeling system was first calibrated using water levels on the main channel from the ICESat (Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite) laser altimeter and then applied to predict the February 2007 Mozambique floods. Model evaluation showed that simulated flood edge cells were within a distance of about 1 km (one model resolution) compared to an observed flood edge of the event. Our study highlights that physically plausible parameter values and satisfactory performance can be achieved at spatial scales ranging from tens to several hundreds of thousands of km2 and at model grid resolutions up to several km2. However, initial model test runs in forecast mode revealed that it is crucial to account for basin-wide hydrological response time when assessing lead time performances notwithstanding structural limitations in the hydrological model and possibly large inaccuracies in precipitation data.

Schumann, Guy J-P; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Voisin, Nathalie; Andreadis, Konstantinos M.; Pappenberger, Florian; Phanthuwongpakdee, Kay; Hall, Amanda C.; Bates, Paul D.

2013-11-04

37

National Flood Insurance Program: Flood Hazard Mapping  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has created this helpful set of resources for policymakers, elected officials, journalists, and members of the general public who would like to know more about the world of flood hazard mapping. On this site, visitors can find a host of resources and over a dozen thematic links, such as Coastal Projects, Change My Flood Zone Designation, and User Groups. Each link is preceded by a brief introduction to the resource, along with a description of the various items within each link. Visitors shouldn't miss the Online Tutorials offered here, as they include several multimedia instructional resources designed to provide in-depth training on different facets on these programs.

38

Importance of Spatial Precipitation for Calibrating a Flood Forecasting System?  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

This paper presents the role of regionalized precipitation as input data for hydrological model calibration in a flood forecasting system. Simulation results out of two differently calibrated hydrological models are compared during the flood event from 21 to 25 July 2012 for the Mur watershed in Austria that is about 10000 km² until the border to Slovenia. The original calibration done in 2005 uses regionalized station precipitation. For calibration purpose hourly precipitation values have been calculated for 40 sub-catchments using the simple Thiessen Polygon method from 1995 to 2002. This simple method has the huge advantage to be very fast so that it can be used in operational system like for the Mur watershed. The modified calibration uses precipitation prepared from the Austrian meteorological institute (ZAMG) mixing information from stations, radars and satellites. Since 2009 hourly quasi real time flood forecasting simulations are made using these precipitation data until time of forecast and results from different meteorological models for 8 days ahead. Thus, implicitly it is considered that ZAMG delivers "regionalized measured precipitation" until time of forecast. That's the reason why in May 2010 it was decided to save these data in a special "grid based" database with an hourly precipitation values per cell with a resolution of 1*1 km. These data have been retrieved for the 40 sub-catchments from the Mur flood forecasting system for the new calibration period extending from May 2010 to April 2012. Simulations compared at the gauging stations on the Mur river are much better using the modified parameters. This is true for all stations except the station Zeltweg with a drained area of 2960 km². The reasons for this specific behavior could not be clearly identified until now. Nevertheless it can be clearly demonstrated that the modified calibration gives much better simulation results for the mid-July flood as the original system. This is true even if the modified calibration covers only a two years period compared to the seven years used in the original calibration. This example shows that the simulation quality for the Mur river flood forecasting system depends very much on the precipitation data used during both calibration and operational application. The apparent detriment of a short calibration period seems to be compensated with the benefit of calibrated parameters in "harmony" with spatial precipitation delivered during operational applications. Following the results from the present analysis it can be concluded that apparently the same precipitation type should be used for both modeling phases: calibration and operational application. Such a finding, if applicable to other flood forecasting systems, means (1) that collaboration between meteorologists and hydrologists must be strengthen and (2) that many hydrological models implemented in flood forecasting systems must be re-calibrated.

Ruch, Christophe; Stöffler, Robert; Schatzl, Robert

2013-04-01

39

Operational flood forecasts for the Mur and Enns catchment in Austria - experiences from the June 2009 double flood event  

Microsoft Academic Search

Flood forecasting performance of two Austrian operational systems is evaluated in this paper using recorded data from the June 2009 double flood event. The Mur and Enns are mountainous rivers in Styria. Significant rainfall variability in both catchments is observed and hence major tributaries are included in the setups for a better description of spatial flood formation processes. Regarding the

Christophe Ruch; Christian Reszler; Robert Schatzl

2010-01-01

40

Application of WRF model forecasts and PERSIANN satellite rainfalls for real-time flood forecasting  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

This study aims to propose an approach which applies Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model forecasts and satellite rainfalls by Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) to physiographic inundation-drainage model for real-time flood forecasting. The study area is Dianbao River Basin in southern Taiwan, which is a low-relief area easily suffering flood disasters. Since the study area lacks reliable rainfall forecasting and inundation simulation models, the study proposes an approach to refine WRF model forecasts (abbreviated as WRFMFs hereafter) using satellite rainfalls by PERSIANN (abbreviated as PERSIANN rainfalls hereafter) for enhancing the inundation forecasts and prolonging the lead time. Twenty one sets of on-line WRFMFs under different hypothesized boundary conditions are provided by Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute. The WRFMFs with a spatial resolution of 5 km*5 km cover the extent of Taiwan (120°E~122°E, 22°N~25°N), which are issued for 72 hours ahead for every 6 hours. However, WRFMFs have a 6-hour delay and are quite different due to their different non-isolated boundary conditions. On the other hand, PERSIANN rainfalls provided by CHRS/UCI are based on the real-time satellite images and can provide real-time global rainfall estimation. Therefore, integrating WRFMFs and PERSIANN rainfalls may be a good approach to provide better rainfall forecasts. The main idea of this approach is to give different WRFMFs different weights by comparing to the PERSIANN rainfalls when a typhoon is formed in the open sea and approaching to Taiwan. Based on the 21 sets of WRFMFs, a pattern recognition method is used to compare the PERSIANN rainfalls to each of the 21 sets of WRFMFs during a same time period for every 6 hours. For example, at a present time (18:00) the WRFMFs are issued with a 6-hour delay from 12:00 for 72 hours ahead. The comparison between each of the 21 sets of WRFMFs and the PERSIANN rainfalls during the past 6 hours (12:00~18:00) is made. Based on the comparisons, 21 errors can be calculated for assigning the weights to the 21 sets of WRFMFs for the 66 hours ahead (herein, six hours ahead are adopted). A set of WRFMF with a smaller error is assigned to have a higher weight. Then, the ensemble approach for the 21 sets of WRFMFs with different weights is performed to obtain more reliable rainfall forecasts. Finally, the study uses physiographic inundation-drainage model for flood inundation simulation. This inundation-drainage model is a pseudo 2-D model which can reasonably simulate flood inundation under the condition of complex topography. By inputting the ensemble of WRFMFs, the inundation-drainage model can forecast the flood extent and depth with less computational time in the study area. These forecasted inundation information can be used to plot the flood inundation maps and help decision makers quickly identify the flood prone areas and make emergency preparedness in advance.

Kuo, C.; Chen, J.; Yang, T.; Lin, Y.; Wang, Y.; Hsu, K.; Sorooshian, S.; Lee, C.; Yu, P.

2013-12-01

41

An Improved Global Flood Forecasting System Using Satellite Rainfall Information and a Hydrological Model (Invited)  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A real-time experimental system to estimate and forecast floods over the globe, the Global Flood Monitoring System (GFMS), has been significantly improved to provide flood detection, streamflow and inundation mapping information at higher resolution (as fine as 1 km) and nowcasts and forecasts (out to five days). Images and output data are available for use by the community with updates available every three hours (http://flood.umd.edu). The system uses satellite-based rainfall information, currently the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis [TMPA]), other satellite and conventional information and a newly-developed hydrological and routing combination model. The improved combined model, the Dominant river Routing Integrated with VIC Environment (DRIVE) system, is based on the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) land surface model (U. of Washington) and the Dominant River Tracing Routing (DRTR) method. Within the DRIVE system the surface hydrological calculations are carried out at 0.125° latitude-longitude resolution with routing, streamflow and other calculations done at that resolution and at 1km resolution. Flood detection and intensity estimates are based on water depth and streamflow thresholds calculated from a 15-year retrospective run using the satellite rainfall and model. This period is also used for testing and evaluation with results indicating improved streamflow estimation and flood detection statistics. The satellite rainfall data are integrated with global model NASA GEOS-5 Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) rainfall predictions (adjusted to the satellite data) to extend the flood calculations out to five days. Examples of results for recent flood events are presented along with validation statistics and comparison with other flood observations (e.g., inundation calculations vs. MODIS and/or SAR flood maps). The outlook for further development in this area in terms of increased utility for national and international disaster management/response agencies is described in relation to new data sources (e.g., improved input data from GPM rainfall, SMAP soil moisture information), improved modeling, and further integration and dissemination of remote sensing flood products (e.g., hydrological calculations, MODIS/SAR flood mapping, etc.).

Adler, R. F.; Wu, H.; Tian, Y.

2013-12-01

42

FEWS Vecht, a crossing boundaries flood forecasting system  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The river Vecht is a cross boundary river, starting in Germany and flowing to the Netherlands. The river is completely dependant on rainfall in the catchment. Being one of the smaller big rivers in the Netherlands, there was still no operational forecasting system avaible because of the hugh number of involved organisations (2 in Germany, 5 in the Netherlands) and many other stake holders. In 2011 a first operational forecasting system has been build by using the Delft-FEWS software. It collects the real time fluvial and meteorological observations from all the organisations, in that sense being a portal where all the collected information is available and can be consistantly interpreted as a whole. In 2012 an HBV rainfall runoff model and a Sobek 1D hydraulic model has been build. These models have been integrated into the FEWS system and are operationally running since the 2012 autumn. The system forecasts 5 days ahead using a 5 days ECMWF rainfall ensemble forecast. It enables making scenarios, especially useful for the operation of storage reservoirs. During the 2012 Christmas days a (relatively small) T=2 flood occurred (Q=175-200 m3/s) and proved the system to run succesfully. Dissemination of the forecasts is performed by using the FEWS system in all organisations, connected to the central system through internet. There is also a (password protected) website available that provides the current forecast to all stake holders in the catchment. The challenge of the project was not to make the models and to build the fews, but to connect all data and all operators together into one system, even cross boundary. Also in that sense the FEWS Vecht system has proved to be very succesful.

van Heeringen, Klaas-Jan; Filius, Pieter; Tromp, Gerben; Renner, Tobias

2013-04-01

43

Identifying Effects of Forecast Uncertainty on Flood Control Decision - A Hydro-economic Hedging Framework  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Different from conventional studies developing reservoir operation models and treating forecast as input to obtain operation decisions case by case, this study issues a hydro-economic analysis framework and derives some general relationships between optimal flood control decision and streamflow forecast. By analogy with the hedging rule theory for water supply, we formulate reservoir flood control with a two-stage optimization model, in which the properties of flood damage (i.e., diminishing marginal damage) and the characteristics of forecast uncertainty (i.e., the longer the forecast horizon, the larger the forecast uncertainty) are incorporated to minimize flood risk. We define flood conveying capacity surplus (FCCS) variables to elaborate the trade-offs between the release of current stage (i.e., stage 1) and in the release of future stage (i.e., stage 2). Using Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions, the flood risk trade-off between the two stages is theoretically represented and illustrated by three typical situations depending on forecast uncertainty and flood magnitude. The analytical results also show some complicated effects of forecast uncertainty and flood magnitude on real-time flood control decision: 1) When there is a big flood with a small FCCS, the whole FCCS should be allocated to the current stage to hedge against the more certain and urgent flood risk in the current stage; 2) when there is a medium flood with a moderate FCCS, some FCCS should be allocated to the future stage but more FCCS still should be allocated to the current stage; and 3) when there is a small flood with a large FCCS, more FCCS should be allocated to the future stage than the current stage, as a large FCCS in the future stage can still induce some flood risk (distribution of future stage forecast uncertainty is more disperse) while a moderate FCCS in the current stage can induce a small risk. Moreover, this study also presents a hypothetical case study to analyze the flood risk under Pseudo probabilistic streamflow forecast (pPSF, deterministic forecast with variance) and Real probabilistic streamflow forecast (rPSF, ensemble forecast) forecast uncertainties, which shows ensemble forecast techniques are more efficient on mitigating flood risk.

Zhao, T.; Zhao, J.; Cai, X.; Yang, D.

2011-12-01

44

Reliability of An Hydro-meteorological Flood Forecasting Procedure  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A flood forecasting procedure, based on the coupling of numerical weather prediction to hydrological rainfall-runoff models, is presented. The aim of this research is to evaluate the reliability of the proposed procedure. A meteorological limited area model (LAM), with 10x10 km2 spatial resolution and 1 hour temporal resolution, has been used. The procedure has been applied to the case-study basins of Tiber river, closed at Ponte Nuovo station (4147 km2), and of Paglia-Chiani rivers, closed at Ponte dell'Adunata station (1320 km2). The comparison between observed and predicted rainfall has highlighted the necessity to develop statistical methods for post-processing rainfall forecast. Rainfall comparison has been made also for Rome urban area, with extension od 40x40 km2, where a dense raingauge network with a temporal resolution of 1 minute, covering a period from 1992 to 1998, is available. To fill the gap between the scale of meteorological model and hydrological rainfall- runoff model, the application of a multifractal disaggregation model, based on a wavelet expansion with coefficient extracted by a log-poisson random cascade, is proposed. Furthermore the reliability of the procedure has been evaluated comparing observed and predicted flood, using hydrological rainfall-runoff models both lumped and distributed.

Calenda, G.; Cerri, M.; di Lazzaro, M.; Volpi, E.

45

National Air Quality Forecast Capability Ivanka Stajner  

E-print Network

) · These meteorological predictions are used for all air quality predictions (October 2011) Ozone - Substantial emissionNational Air Quality Forecast Capability Ivanka Stajner NOAA NWS/OST with contributions from AQAST meeting, College Park, MD June 5, 2013 #12;National Air Quality Forecast Capability Capabilities

Jacob, Daniel J.

46

Forecasting of Storm Surge Floods Using ADCIRC and Optimized DEMs  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Increasing the accuracy of storm surge flood forecasts is essential for improving preparedness for hurricanes and other severe storms and, in particular, for optimizing evacuation scenarios. An interactive database, developed by WorldWinds, Inc., contains atlases of storm surge flood levels for the Louisiana/Mississippi gulf coast region. These atlases were developed to improve forecasting of flooding along the coastline and estuaries and in adjacent inland areas. Storm surge heights depend on a complex interaction of several factors, including: storm size, central minimum pressure, forward speed of motion, bottom topography near the point of landfall, astronomical tides, and most importantly, maximum wind speed. The information in the atlases was generated in over 100 computational simulations, partly by use of a parallel-processing version of the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model. ADCIRC is a nonlinear computational model of hydrodynamics, developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the US Navy, as a family of two- and three-dimensional finite element based codes. It affords a capability for simulating tidal circulation and storm surge propagation over very large computational domains, while simultaneously providing high-resolution output in areas of complex shoreline and bathymetry. The ADCIRC finite-element grid for this project covered the Gulf of Mexico and contiguous basins, extending into the deep Atlantic Ocean with progressively higher resolution approaching the study area. The advantage of using ADCIRC over other storm surge models, such as SLOSH, is that input conditions can include all or part of wind stress, tides, wave stress, and river discharge, which serve to make the model output more accurate.

Valenti, Elizabeth; Fitzpatrick, Patrick

2005-01-01

47

Use of weather radar for flood forecasting in the Sieve River Basin: A sensitivity analysis  

Microsoft Academic Search

Weather radar, in combination with a distributed rainfall-runoff model, promises to significantly improve real-time flood forecasting. This paper investigates the value of radar-derived precipitation in forecasting streamflow in the Sieve River basin, near Florence, Italy. The basin is modeled with a distributed rainfall-runoff model that exploits topographic information available from digital elevation maps. The sensitivity of the flood forecast to

Marcos L. Pessoa; Rafael L. Bras; Earle R. Williams

1993-01-01

48

Estimating the benefits of single value and probability forecasting for flood warning  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flood risk can be reduced by means of flood forecasting, warning and response systems (FFWRS). These systems include a forecasting sub-system which is imperfect, meaning that inherent uncertainties in hydrological forecasts may result in false alarms and missed events. This forecasting uncertainty decreases the potential reduction of flood risk, but is seldom accounted for in estimates of the benefits of FFWRSs. In the present paper, a method to estimate the benefits of (imperfect) FFWRSs in reducing flood risk is presented. The method is based on a hydro-economic model of expected annual damage (EAD) due to flooding, combined with the concept of Relative Economic Value (REV). The estimated benefits include not only the reduction of flood losses due to a warning response, but also consider the costs of the warning response itself, as well as the costs associated with forecasting uncertainty. The method allows for estimation of the benefits of FFWRSs that use either deterministic or probabilistic forecasts. Through application to a case study, it is shown that FFWRSs using a probabilistic forecast have the potential to realise higher benefits at all lead-times. However, it is also shown that provision of warning at increasing lead-time does not necessarily lead to an increasing reduction of flood risk, but rather that an optimal lead-time at which warnings are provided can be established as a function of forecast uncertainty and the cost-loss ratio of the user receiving and responding to the warning.

Verkade, J. S.; Werner, M. G. F.

2011-12-01

49

Drought Monitoring and Forecasting Using the Princeton/U Washington National Hydrologic Forecasting System  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Extreme hydrologic events in the form of droughts or floods are a significant source of social and economic damage in many parts of the world. Having sufficient warning of extreme events allows managers to prepare for and reduce the severity of their impacts. A hydrologic forecast system can give seasonal predictions that can be used by mangers to make better decisions; however there is still much uncertainty associated with such a system. Therefore it is important to understand the forecast skill of the system before transitioning to operational usage. Seasonal reforecasts (1982 - 2010) from the NCEP Climate Forecast System (both version 1 (CFS) and version 2 (CFSv2), Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlooks and the European Seasonal Interannual Prediction (EUROSIP) system, are assessed for forecasting skill in drought prediction across the U.S., both singularly and as a multi-model system The Princeton/U Washington national hydrologic monitoring and forecast system is being implemented at NCEP/EMC via their Climate Test Bed as the experimental hydrological forecast system to support U.S. operational drought prediction. Using our system, the seasonal forecasts are biased corrected, downscaled and used to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model to give seasonal forecasts of hydrologic variables with lead times of up to six months. Results are presented for a number of events, with particular focus on the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin in the South Eastern United States, which has experienced a number of severe droughts in recent years and is a pilot study basin for the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS). The performance of the VIC land surface model is evaluated using observational forcing when compared to observed streamflow. The effectiveness of the forecast system to predict streamflow and soil moisture is evaluated when compared with observed streamflow and modeled soil moisture driven by observed atmospheric forcing. The forecast skills from the dynamical seasonal models (CFSv1, CFSv2, EUROSIP) and CPC are also compared with forecasts based on the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) method, which uses initial conditions and historical forcings to generate seasonal forecasts. The skill of the system to predict drought, drought recovery and related hydrological conditions such as low-flows is assessed, along with quantified uncertainty.

Wood, E. F.; Yuan, X.; Roundy, J. K.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Mo, K. C.; Xia, Y.; Ek, M. B.

2011-12-01

50

Semi-distributed flood forecasting system for the Middle Vistula reach  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The aim of this study is the development of an integrated forecasting system for the middle reach of the River Vistula. The system consists of combined in series lumped parameter Stochastic Transfer Function models. In order to prolong the forecast lead-time, the system was extended to include gauging stations situated upstream of Zawichost. There is a number of tributaries located along the studied reach. The largest are Kamienna, Pilica and Wieprz. Therefore apart from Single- Input -Single-Output models (SISO), multiple input models were also developed (MISO). The system is based on water levels instead of flows, in order to avoid errors related to rating curve transformation. The problem of the nonlinear transformation of system inputs in order to separate the nonlinearity of the flow process to obtain the linear model dynamics is equally important for the accuracy of forecasts. The possibility of linearizing the flow routing process was investigated using a State Dependent Parameter approach. The nonparametric relationship was parameterised using a power function. This procedure allowed the application of a model with a nonlinear transformation of input in the forecasting mode. It is important to note that the applied methods are stochastic in nature and the structure of the models and their parameters are estimated from available observations, taking into account inherent observation and model approximation errors. As a result, forecasts are estimated together with uncertainty bands. We apply a Kalman filter updating of model predictions as a data assimilation procedure. The procedure involves formulating the forecasting problem in a state space form. Validation of the developed forecasting system shows that the quality of forecasts obtained using a semi-distributed lumped parameter model is comparable with the forecasts obtained using a distributed model with the advantage of obtaining forecast uncertainty by the former. This work was supported by the project "Stochastic flood forecasting system (The River Vistula reach from Zawichost to Warsaw)" carried by the Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences on the order of the National Science Centre (contract No. 2011/01/B/ST10/06866). The water level data were provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Poland.

Romanowicz, Renata; Karamuz, Emilia; Osuch, Marzena

2014-05-01

51

Challenges in communicating and using ensemble forecasts in operational flood risk management  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Following trends in operational weather forecasting, where ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are now increasingly the norm, a number of hydrological and flood forecasting centres internationally have begun to experiment with using similar ensemble methods. Most of the research to date has focused on the substantial technical challenges of developing coupled rainfall-runoff systems to represent the full cascade of uncertainties involved in predicting future flooding. As a consequence much less attention has been given to the communication and eventual use of EPS flood forecasts. Thus, this talk addresses the general understanding and communicative challenges in using EPS in operational flood forecasting. Drawing on a set of 48 semi-structured interviews conducted with flood forecasters, meteorologists and civil protection authorities (CPAs) dispersed across 17 European countries, this presentation pulls out some of the tensions between the scientific development of EPS and their application in flood risk management. The scientific uncertainties about whether or not a flood will occur comprise only part of the wider ‘decision' uncertainties faced by those charged with flood protection, who must also consider questions about how warnings they issue will subsequently be interpreted. By making those first order scientific uncertainties more explicit, ensemble forecasts can sometimes complicate, rather than clarify, the second order decision uncertainties they are supposed to inform.

Nobert, Sébastien; Demeritt, David; Cloke, Hannah

2010-05-01

52

A Distributed Hydrologic Model, HL-RDHM, for Flash Flood Forecasting in Hawaiian Watersheds  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawai'i's watersheds are flash flood prone due to their small contributing areas, and frequent intense spatially variable precipitation. Accurate simulation of the hydrology of these watersheds should incorporate spatial variability of at least the major input data, e.g., precipitation. The goal of this study is to evaluate the performance of the U.S. National Weather Service Hydrology Laboratory Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM) in flash flood forecasting at Hanalei watershed, Kauai, Hawai'i. Some of the major limitations of using HL-RDHM in Hawaii are: i) Hawaii lies outside the Hydrologic Rainfall Analysis Project (HRAP) coordinate system of the continental US (CONUS), unavailability of a priori SAC-SMA parameter grids, and absence of hourly multi-sensor NEXRAD based precipitation grids. The specific objectives of this study were to i) run HL-RDHM outside CONUS domain, and ii) evaluate the performance of HL-RDHM for flash flood forecasting in the flood prone Hanalei watershed, Kauai, Hawai'i. We i) modified HRAP coordinate system; ii) generated input data of precipitation grids at different resolutions using data from 20 precipitation gauges five of which were within Hanalei watershed; iii) and generated SAC-SMA and routing parameter grids for the modified HRAP coordinate system. The one HRAP resolution grid (4 km x 4 km) was not accurate; thus, the basin averaged annual hourly precipitation of 1 HRAP grid is comparatively lower than that of ½ and ¼ HRAP grids. The performance of HL-RDHM using basin averaged a priori grids and distributed a priori grids was reasonable even using non-optimized a priori parameter values for 2008 data. HL-RDHM reasonably matched the observed streamflow magnitudes of peaks and time to peak during the calibration and validation periods. Overall, HL-RDHM performance is "good" to "very good" if we use input data of finer resolution grids (½ HRAP or ¼ HRAP) and precipitation grids interpolated from sufficient data of rain gauges. Results of this study show the potential of using HL-RDHM for flood forecasting in Hawaii; however, there are still some necessary modifications of HL-RDHM that should be implemented to make it more user friendly. There is also a need to produce HRAP quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) grids for Hawaii. The size and coordinate system of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) grids for Hawaii are different from those for the CONUS; hence, further work should focus on generating QPE grids and incorporating QPF grids in HL-RDHM model.

Fares, A.; Awal, R.; Michaud, J.; Chu, P.; Fares, S.; Kevin, K.; Rosener, M.

2012-12-01

53

Ensemble forecasting of typhoon rainfall and floods over a mountainous watershed in Taiwan  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In this study, an ensemble meteorological modeling system is one-way coupled with a hydrological model to predict typhoon rainfall and flood responses in a mountainous watershed in Taiwan. This ensemble meteorological model framework includes perturbations of the initial conditions, data analysis methods, and physical parameterizations. The predicted rainfall from the ensemble meteorological modeling system is then used to drive a physically distributed hydrological model for flood responses in the Lanyang basin during the landfall of Typhoon Nanmadol (2011). The ensemble forecast provides track forecasts that are comparable to the operational center track forecasts and provides a more accurate rainfall forecast than a single deterministic prediction. The runoff forecast, which is driven by the ensemble rainfall prediction, can provide uncertainties for the runoff forecasts during typhoon landfall. Thus, the ensemble prediction system provides useful probability information for rainfall and runoff forecasting.

Hsiao, Ling-Feng; Yang, Ming-Jen; Lee, Cheng-Shang; Kuo, Hung-Chi; Shih, Dong-Sin; Tsai, Chin-Cheng; Wang, Chieh-Ju; Chang, Lung-Yao; Chen, Delia Yen-Chu; Feng, Lei; Hong, Jing-Shan; Fong, Chin-Tzu; Chen, Der-Song; Yeh, Tien-Chiang; Huang, Ching-Yuang; Guo, Wen-Dar; Lin, Gwo-Fong

2013-12-01

54

Emerging Trends of Computational Grid Based Near Real Time\\/Real Time Flood Assessment and Forecasting Models  

Microsoft Academic Search

From recent past, the computational Grid based flood assessment and forecasting models is getting emerged as an interdisciplinary integrated `near real time\\/real time model'. Many such, Grid based flood assessment and forecasting model supports in logically integrating various components of flood related scientific simulations such as Metrological, Hydrological, Hydraulic, RADAR, LIDAR Remote Sensing, GIS, Satellite Communication and other technologies and

M. Manavalan; S. Chattopadhyay; M. Mangala; Y. S. Rao

2010-01-01

55

A distributed hydrological model for drought and flood forecast in the upper Yangtze River basin  

Microsoft Academic Search

The Yangzte River (also called Changjiang in Chinese) is the largest river basin in China, which has frequent flood and drought. Building on the physically-based description of hydrological processes, a distributed model has been established in the upper Yangtze River for drought and flood forecast have been addressed in this study. For assessing water resources and drought, a large scale

X. Jijun; Y. Dawen; L. Zhidong; H. Wei

2007-01-01

56

Towards Long-lead Forecasting of Extreme Flood Events: A Data Mining Framework for Precipitation Cluster  

E-print Network

Towards Long-lead Forecasting of Extreme Flood Events: A Data Mining Framework for Precipitation.Small@tufts.edu Shafiqul Islam Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Tufts University Shafiqul.Islam-time (5-15 days) is of great importance to society. Extreme Flood is usually a con- sequence of a sequence

Ding, Wei

57

Forecasting skills of the ensemble hydro-meteorological system for the Po river floods  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The Po basin is the largest and most economically important river-basin in Italy. Extreme hydrological events, including floods, flash floods and droughts, are expected to become more severe in the next future due to climate change, and related ground effects are linked both with environmental and social resilience. A Warning Operational Center (WOC) for hydrological event management was created in Emilia Romagna region. In the last years, the WOC faced challenges in legislation, organization, technology and economics, achieving improvements in forecasting skill and information dissemination. Since 2005, an operational forecasting and modelling system for flood modelling and forecasting has been implemented, aimed at supporting and coordinating flood control and emergency management on the whole Po basin. This system, referred to as FEWSPo, has also taken care of environmental aspects of flood forecast. The FEWSPo system has reached a very high level of complexity, due to the combination of three different hydrological-hydraulic chains (HEC-HMS/RAS - MIKE11 NAM/HD, Topkapi/Sobek), with several meteorological inputs (forecasted - COSMOI2, COSMOI7, COSMO-LEPS among others - and observed). In this hydrological and meteorological ensemble the management of the relative predictive uncertainties, which have to be established and communicated to decision makers, is a debated scientific and social challenge. Real time activities face professional, modelling and technological aspects but are also strongly interrelated with organization and human aspects. The authors will report a case study using the operational flood forecast hydro-meteorological ensemble, provided by the MIKE11 chain fed by COSMO_LEPS EQPF. The basic aim of the proposed approach is to analyse limits and opportunities of the long term forecast (with a lead time ranging from 3 to 5 days), for the implementation of low cost actions, also looking for a well informed decision making and the improvement of flood preparedness and crisis management for basins greater than 1.000 km2.

Ricciardi, Giuseppe; Montani, Andrea; Paccagnella, Tiziana; Pecora, Silvano; Tonelli, Fabrizio

2013-04-01

58

Study on snowmelt flood forecasting based on 3S technologies and DSS  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flood disaster is one of the most frequently and the biggest natural disasters in the world, and snowmelt floods which break out in spring often bring enormous social and economic loss, especially in arid and semi-arid areas, such as in Northern Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang, China. Any effective prevention or mitigation of disasters is built on the basis of forecasting, so the real-time processing, snow information analysis, and weather forecasting, are combined into a system which can provide intelligent reports and prewarning information of snowmelt flood duly and accurately for the government departments or other organizations. So it is of great significance for flood prevention and disaster reduction. Furthermore, effective forecasting and prewarning can generate enormous social, economic and ecological benefits, so the establishment of a real-time, efficient and reliable Flood Forecasting/Prewarning DSS, is an important part of the building of non-engineering measures for flood prevention and disaster reduction. Now the integrated applications of remote sensing(RS), geographic information systems(GIS) and global positioning systems(GPS), named "3S" technologies, have been infiltrated through hydrology and water resource management, and there are rapid developments and extensive applications of Decision Support System (DSS) in recent years in many fields. But there is seldom appearance of mature applications of Snowmelt Flood Forecasting/Prewarning DSS, and a shortage of study on effective Snowmelt Flood Forecasting. In this paper, firstly, a Distributed Snowmelt Runoff Model had been built based on the "3S" technologies, and then a Snowmelt Flood Forecasting DSS based on the B/S (Browser server) and J2EE structure had been established, then introduced the T213 Numerical Forecasting Production from WRF mode and revised it with our synchronous field observation data. Various snow information and other basic geoinformation also had been extracted from RS imagines or other data with RS and GIS tools. At last, snowmelt flood based on "3S" technologies and DSS had been forested in the typical study area, Quergou River Basin, which is located in the middle of the Northern Tianshan Mountains, Xinjiang, China, and is contrasted with the latter measured runoff. Good forecasting results had been achieved, and the average accuracy was up to 0.90.

Fang, Shifeng; Pei, Huan; Liu, Zhihui; Dai, Wei; Liu, Yongqiang; Zhao, Qiudong; Feng, Lin

2008-10-01

59

Improving our understanding of flood forecasting using earlier hydro-meteorological intelligence  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In recent decades, Taiwan has suffered from severe bouts of torrential rain, and typhoon induced floods have become the major natural threat to Taiwan. In order to warn the public of potential risks, authorities are considering establishing an early warning system derived from an integrated hydro-meteorological estimation process. This study aims at the development and accuracy of such a warning system. So it is first necessary to understand the distinctive features of flood forecasting in integrated rainfall-runoff simulations. Additionally the adequacies of a warning system that is based on extracting useful intelligence from earlier, possibly faulty numerical simulation results are discussed. In order to precisely model flooding, hydrological simulations based upon spot measured rainfall data have been utilized in prior studies to calibrate model parameters. Here, precipitation inputs from an ensemble of almost 20 different realizations of rainfall fields have been used to derive flood forecasts. The flood warning system therefore integrates rainfall-runoff calculations, field observations and data assimilations. Simulation results indicate that the ensemble precipitation estimates generated by a Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model produce divergent estimates. Considerable flooding is often shown in the simulated hydrographs, but the results as to the peak time and peak stage are not always in agreement with the observations. In brief, such forecasts can be good for warning against potential damaging floods in the near future, but the meteorological inputs are not good enough to forecast the time and magnitude of the peaks. The key for such warning system is not to expect highly accurate rainfall predictions, but to improve our understanding from individual ensemble flood forecasts.

Shih, Dong-Sin; Chen, Cheng-Hsin; Yeh, Gour-Tsyh

2014-05-01

60

A systematic review of sensitivities in the Swedish flood-forecasting system  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Since the early 1970s operational flood forecasts in Sweden have been based on the hydrological HBV model. However, the model is only one component in a chain of processes for production of hydrological forecasts. During the last 35 years there has been considerable work on improving different parts of the forecast procedure and results from specific studies have been reported frequently. Yet, the results have not been compared in any overall assessment of potential for improvements. Therefore we formulated and applied a method for translating results from different studies to a common criterion of error reduction. The aim was to quantify potential improvements in a systems perspective and to identify in which part of the production chain efforts would result in significantly better forecasts. The most sensitive (> 20% error reduction) components were identified for three different operational-forecast types. From the analyses of historical efforts to minimise the errors in the Swedish flood-forecasting system, it was concluded that 1) general runoff simulations and predictions could be significantly improved by model structure and calibration, model equations (e.g. evapotranspiration expression), and new precipitation input using radar data as a complement to station gauges; 2) annual spring-flood forecasts could be significantly improved by better seasonal meteorological forecast, fresh re-calibration of the hydrological model based on long time-series, and data assimilation of snow-pack measurements using georadar or gamma-ray technique; 3) short-term (2 days) forecasts could be significantly improved by up-dating using an auto-regressive method for discharge, and by ensembles of meteorological forecasts using the median at occasions when the deterministic forecast is out of the ensemble range. The study emphasises the importance of continuously evaluating the entire production chain to search for potential improvements of hydrological forecasts in the operational environment.

Arheimer, Berit; Lindström, Göran; Olsson, Jonas

2011-05-01

61

The Hurricane-Flood-Landslide Continuum: Forecasting Hurricane Effects at Landfall  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones strike Central American, Caribbean, Southeast Asian and Pacific Island nations even more frequently than the U.S. The global losses of life and property from the floods, landslides and debris flows caused by cyclonic storms are staggering. One of the keys to reducing these losses, both in the U.S. and internationally, is to have better forecasts of what is about to happen from several hours to days before the event. Particularly in developing nations where science, technology and communication are limited, advance-warning systems can have great impact. In developing countries, warnings of even a few hours or days can mitigate or reduce catastrophic losses of life. With the foregoing needs in mind, we propose an initial project of three years total duration that will aim to develop and transfer a warning system for a prototype region in the Central Caribbean, specifically the islands of Puerto Rico and Hispanola. The Hurricane-Flood-Landslide Continuum will include satellite observations to track and nowcast dangerous levels of precipitation, atmospheric and hydrological models to predict near-future runoff, and streamflow changes in affected regions, and landslide models to warn when and where landslides and debris flows are imminent. Since surface communications are likely to be interrupted during these crises, the project also includes the capability to communicate disaster information via satellite to vital government officials in Puerto Rico, Haiti, and Dominican Republic.

Negri, A.; Golden, J. H.; Updike, R.

2004-01-01

62

Evaluation of Mekong River commission operational flood forecasts, 2000-2012  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

This study created a 13-year historical archive of operational flood forecasts issued by the Regional Flood Management and Mitigation Center (RFMMC) of the Mekong River Commission. The RFMMC issues 1- to 5-day daily deterministic river height forecasts for 22 locations throughout the wet season (June-October). When these forecasts reach near flood level, government agencies and the public are encouraged to take protective action against damages. When measured by standard skill scores, the forecasts perform exceptionally well (e.g., 1 day-ahead Nash-Sutcliffe > 0.99) although much of this apparent skill is due to the strong seasonal cycle and the narrow natural range of variability at certain locations. Five-day forecasts upstream of Phnom Penh typically have 0.8 m error standard deviation, whereas below Phnom Penh the error is typically 0.3 m. The coefficients of persistence for 1-day forecasts are typically 0.4-0.8 and 5-day forecasts are typically 0.1-0.7. RFMMC uses a series of benchmarks to define a metric of percentage satisfactory forecasts. As the benchmarks were derived based on the average error, certain locations and lead times consistently appear less satisfactory than others. Instead, different benchmarks were proposed and derived based on the 70th percentile of absolute error over the 13-year period. There are no obvious trends in the percentage of satisfactory forecasts from 2002 to 2012, regardless of the benchmark chosen. Finally, when evaluated from a categorical "crossing above/not-crossing above flood level" perspective, the forecasts have a moderate probability of detection (48% at 1 day ahead, 31% at 5 days ahead) and false alarm rate (13% at 1 day ahead, 74% at 5 days ahead).

Pagano, T. C.

2014-07-01

63

Development of Hydrometeorological Monitoring and Forecasting as AN Essential Component of the Early Flood Warning System:  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Defining issue The river inundations are the most common and destructive natural hazards in Ukraine. Among non-structural flood management and protection measures a creation of the Early Flood Warning System is extremely important to be able to timely recognize dangerous situations in the flood-prone areas. Hydrometeorological information and forecasts are a core importance in this system. The primary factors affecting reliability and a lead - time of forecasts include: accuracy, speed and reliability with which real - time data are collected. The existing individual conception of monitoring and forecasting resulted in a need in reconsideration of the concept of integrated monitoring and forecasting approach - from "sensors to database and forecasters". Result presentation The Project: "Development of Flood Monitoring and Forecasting in the Ukrainian part of the Dniester River Basin" is presented. The project is developed by the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Service in a conjunction with the Water Management Agency and the Energy Company "Ukrhydroenergo". The implementation of the Project is funded by the Ukrainian Government and the World Bank. The author is nominated as the responsible person for coordination of activity of organizations involved in the Project. The term of the Project implementation: 2012 - 2014. The principal objectives of the Project are: a) designing integrated automatic hydrometeorological measurement network (including using remote sensing technologies); b) hydrometeorological GIS database construction and coupling with electronic maps for flood risk assessment; c) interface-construction classic numerical database -GIS and with satellite images, and radar data collection; d) providing the real-time data dissemination from observation points to forecasting centers; e) developing hydrometeoroogical forecasting methods; f) providing a flood hazards risk assessment for different temporal and spatial scales; g) providing a dissemination of current information, forecasts and warnings to consumers automatically. Besides scientific and technical issues the implementation of these objectives requires solution of a number of organizational issues. Thus, as a result of the increased complexity of types of hydrometeorological data and in order to develop forecasting methods, a reconsideration of meteorological and hydrological measurement networks should be carried out. The "optimal density of measuring networks" is proposed taking into account principal terms: a) minimizing an uncertainty in characterizing the spacial distribution of hydrometeorological parameters; b) minimizing the Total Life Cycle Cost of creation and maintenance of measurement networks. Much attention will be given to training Ukrainian disaster management authorities from the Ministry of Emergencies and the Water Management Agency to identify the flood hazard risk level and to indicate the best protection measures on the basis of continuous monitoring and forecasts of evolution of meteorological and hydrological conditions in the river basin.

Manukalo, V.

2012-12-01

64

Model Integration for Real-Time Flood Forecasting Inundation Mapping for Nashville Tributaries  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In May of 2010, between 14 and 19 inches of rain fell on the Nashville metro area in two days, quickly overwhelming tributaries to the Cumberland River and causing wide-spread, serious flooding. Tractor-trailers and houses were seen floating down Mill Creek, a primary tributary in the south eastern area of Nashville. Twenty-six people died and over 2 billion dollars in damage occurred as a result of the flood. Since that time, several other significant rainfall events have occurred in the area. Emergency responders were unable to deliver aid or preventive measures to areas under threat of flooding (or under water) in time to reduce damages because they could not identify those areas far enough in advance of the floods. Nashville Metro Water, the National Weather Service, the US Geological Survey and the US Army Corps of Engineers established a joint venture to seek ways to better forecast short-term flood events in the region. One component of this effort was a pilot project to compute and display real time inundation maps for Mill Creek, a 108 square-mile basin to the south east of Nashville. HEC-RTS (Real-Time Simulation) was used to assimilate and integrate the hydrologic model HEC-HMS with the hydraulics model HEC-RAS and the inundation mapping program HEC-RAS Mapper. The USGS, along with the other agencies, installed additional precipitation and flow/stage gages in the area. Measurements are recorded every 5-30 minutes and are posted on the USGS NWIS database, which are downloaded by HEC-RTS. Using this data in combination with QPFs (Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts) from the NWS, HEC-RTS applies HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS to estimate current and forecast stage hydrographs. The peak stages are read by HEC-RAS Mapper to compute inundation depths for 6 by 6 foot grid cells. HEC-RTS displays the inundation on a high resolution MrSid aerial photo, along with subbasin boundary, street and various other layers. When a user zooms in and "mouses" over a cell, the inundation depth for that cell is displayed as a tool-tip. This procedure for real-time inundation mapping provides a relatively accurate depiction of water depths throughout the basin, as it is computed using the temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall that has actually occurred and will compute depths based on forecasted rainfall. In addition, the HEC-RAS hydraulics model can be modified as the event is occurring to represent changes in the stream channels, such as obstructions at bridges. This paper covers the procedure used and provides results and images from the integrated models for various precipitation scenarios.

Charley, W.; Moran, B.; LaRosa, J.

2012-12-01

65

A modeling approach for operational flash flood forecasting for small-scale watersheds in central Iowa  

Microsoft Academic Search

National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters currently have access to a limited set of models that may not be suitable for all Iowa basins or forecasting situations, such as small, fast responding streams. Flexible modeling systems that allow model configurations to change according to the watershed characteristics may provide useful predictive information to supplement existing forecast products. The United States Army

William Scott Lincoln

2009-01-01

66

Use of Precipitation Data Derived from Satellite Data for Hydrologic Modeling: Flood Forecasting and Snowpack Monitoring  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Floods are the most common and widespread climate-related hazards throughout the globe. Most human losses due to floods occur in the tropical regions of Africa, Asia, and Central America. The use of flood forecasting can reduce the death toll associated with floods. Recent research suggests that the frequency and severity of extreme rainfall events will increase; therefore, there is an urgent need for timely flood forecasting. In those tropical regions, a paucity of the ground-based precipitation data collection networks and the lack of data sharing across international borders for trans-boundary basins have made it impractical to use traditional flood forecasting that relies on station-measured precipitation data. Precipitation estimated from satellite data offers an effective means for calculating areal precipitation estimates in sparsely gauged regions. Because of the apparent uncertainty associated with satellite-based precipitation estimates, the use of such data in hydrologic modeling has been limited in the past. We will present results from our research on the utility of precipitation estimates from satellite data for flood forecasting and snowpack monitoring purposes. We found that remotely sensed precipitation data in combination with distributed hydrologic models can play an important role in early warning and monitoring of floods. For large basins the results of hydrologic models forced with satellite-based precipitation were comparable those the stream flow simulated stream using precipitation measured with ground-based networks. Snowpack simulated with precipitation estimates from satellite data underestimated the snow water content compared with snow water recorded by the SNOTEL network or simulated by SNODAS system; nevertheless, the estimates were found to be useful in mapping the snowpack.

Artan, G. A.; Shrestha, M.; Tokar, S.; Rowland, J.; Verdin, J. P.; Amer, S.

2012-12-01

67

A comparison of different approaches for forecasting spring floods in Sweden  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In seasonally snow covered regions, such as Sweden, the winter precipitation often falls as snow which is temporarily stored in the snow pack during the colder months. This storage is later released over a relatively short period of intense flows during in the warmer months. These spring flood events dominate the hydrology of these regions and therefore there is a real interest in reliable hydrological forecasts of these events. In the state-of-the-art forecasting approach for three catchments in Sweden, the HBV model is firstly run using observed temperature and precipitation up until the time of the forecast, that way producing an optimal description of the hydro-meteorological conditions. Then temperature and precipitation data, for the period corresponding with that being forecasted, from all historical years since 1961 is used to create an ensemble of model runs representing possible evolutions in the coming period. Since all historical years are used, the (median) forecast is climatological, i.e. it predicts the spring flood under the assumption that the development of the weather in the forecasting period will be normal. The forecast error will thus be larger the more unusual the weather develops, provided that the initial HBV-condition represents reality well. In this study, three different ensemble forecast approaches to spring flood forecasting were compared to the state-of-the-art operational method. (1) A reduced historical ensemble approach, where analogue years from the historical dataset are selected to run the hydrological model. (2) Using meteorological seasonal forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to run the hydrological model. (3) Statically downscaling large-scale circulation variables from ECMWF seasonal forecasts to accumulated discharge using the Singular Value Decomposition method. The different approaches were evaluated for forecasts issued on 1/1, 1/3 and 1/5 for the spring floods 2000-2010 in the rivers Vindelälven, Ångermanälven and Ljusnan. The evaluation was mainly performed in terms of the mean absolute error (MAE) of accumulated discharge with the state-of-the-art forecast as a reference. Also the frequency of cases when the new approach outperformed the state-of-the-art forecast was calculated and used. The results indicate that some reduction of the forecast error seems attainable for Vindelälven and Ångermanälven, whereas none of the single approaches generated any clear improvement for Ljusnan. This is probably because the spring floods in the former rivers are more clearly related to snow melt. The largest improvement was found for the 1/1-forecasts using the statistical downscaling approach, while the reduced ensemble approach gave the best improvement when considering all forecast dates. Using ECMWF seasonal forecasts approach did not generate any improvements; an analysis of the ECWMF forecasts indicated clearly overestimated precipitation in Feb-Apr and temperature in Jun-Jul, as compared with catchment observations.

Foster, K.; Olsson, J.; Uvo, C.; Yang, W.; Söderling, J.

2012-04-01

68

Ensemble Flood Forecasting in Africa: A Feasibility Study in the Juba-Shabelle River Basin  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Over the last years the African continent has increasingly experienced severe transnational floods that caused substantial socio-economic losses and put enormous pressure on countries across the continent. The planning, coordination and realization of flood prevention, protection and mitigation measures require time, which can be provided through an early flood prediction. In this paper, the transferability of the European Flood Alert System (EFAS) to equatorial African basins is assessed. EFAS achieves early flood warnings for large to medium-size river basins with lead times of 10 days. This is based on probabilistic weather forecasts, the exceedance of alert thresholds and persistence indicators. These methodologies, having been tested for different events and time scales in mid-latitude basins in Europe, are being applied in this paper to the Juba-Shabella river basin, shared between Ethopia and Somalia. A variety of different meteorological data sources have been used, including ERA-40 and CHARM for the calculation of climatologies. The unique re-forecasts of the current operational ECMWF model provided hindcasts of historic flood events. The results show that for the selected flood events a detection rate of 85% was achieved, with a high accuracy in terms of timing and magnitude.

Thiemig, Vera; Pappenberger, Florian; Thielen, Jutta; Gadain, Hussein; de Roo, Ad; Bodis, Katalin; Del Medico, Mauro; Muthusi, Flavian

2010-05-01

69

18 CFR 801.8 - Flood plain management and protection.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

...for flood plain management. (4) Promote the use of flood insurance by helping localities qualify for the national program. (5) Assist in the development of a modern flood forecasting and warning...

2010-04-01

70

18 CFR 801.8 - Flood plain management and protection.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

...for flood plain management. (4) Promote the use of flood insurance by helping localities qualify for the national program. (5) Assist in the development of a modern flood forecasting and warning...

2011-04-01

71

DETERIORATION FORECASTING IN FLEXIBLE PAVEMENTS DUE TO FLOODS AND SNOW STORMS  

E-print Network

DETERIORATION FORECASTING IN FLEXIBLE PAVEMENTS DUE TO FLOODS AND SNOW STORMS Salar Shahini.birken@neu.edu, 4 mi.wang@neu.edu ABSTRACT Roadway agencies and state DOTs utilize Pavement Management Systems (PMS process of pavements is an integral part of any Pavement Management System. As pavement condition grows

Boyer, Edmond

72

Estimating the impact of satellite observations on large-scale river flood forecasting  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Floods are one of the costliest natural disasters, posing severe risks to human population. Hydraulic models are able to predict flood characteristics, such as water surface elevations and inundated area, and are being used for forecasting operationally although there are many uncertainties. In this work, the potential value of satellite observations to initialize these hydraulic models (and their forecasts correspondingly) is explored. The Ensemble Sensitivity method is adapted to evaluate the impact of potential satellite observations on the forecasting of flood characteristics. The estimation of the impact is based on the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter, allowing for the forecast error reductions to be computed without additional model runs. The study area was located in the Ohio River basin, and the model used was the LISFLOOD-FP hydrodynamic model. The experimental design consisted of two configurations of the LISFLOOD-FP model. The first (baseline) simulation represents a calibrated 'best effort' model based on a sub-grid channel structure using observations for parameters and boundary conditions, whereas the second (background) simulation consists of estimated parameters and SRTM-based boundary conditions. Results showed that the forecast skill was improved for water heights up to lead times of 11 days, while even partial observations of the river contained information for the entire river's water surface profile and allowed forecasting 5 to 7 days ahead. On the other hand, discharge forecasts were not improved as much when assimilating water height observations although forecast errors were reduced. Finally, the potential for identifying errors in the model structure and parameterizations via the ensemble sensitivity method is discussed.

Andreadis, Konstantinos; Schumann, Guy

2014-05-01

73

Climate forecasts in disaster management: Red Cross flood operations in West Africa, 2008.  

PubMed

In 2008, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) used a seasonal forecast for West Africa for the first time to implement an Early Warning, Early Action strategy for enhanced flood preparedness and response. Interviews with disaster managers suggest that this approach improved their capacity and response. Relief supplies reached flood victims within days, as opposed to weeks in previous years, thereby preventing further loss of life, illness, and setbacks to livelihoods, as well as augmenting the efficiency of resource use. This case demonstrates the potential benefits to be realised from the use of medium-to-long-range forecasts in disaster management, especially in the context of potential increases in extreme weather and climate-related events due to climate variability and change. However, harnessing the full potential of these forecasts will require continued effort and collaboration among disaster managers, climate service providers, and major humanitarian donors. PMID:23066755

Braman, Lisette Martine; van Aalst, Maarten Krispijn; Mason, Simon J; Suarez, Pablo; Ait-Chellouche, Youcef; Tall, Arame

2013-01-01

74

Assimilation of Satellite Based Soil Moisture Data in the National Weather Service's Flash Flood Guidance System  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Climate change and variability increases the probability of frequency, timing, intensity, and duration of flood events. After rainfall, soil moisture is the most important factor dictating flash flooding, since rainfall infiltration and runoff are based on the saturation of the soil. It is difficult to conduct ground-based measurements of soil moisture consistently and regionally. As such, soil moisture is often derived from models and agencies such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service (NOAA/NWS) use proxy estimates of soil moisture at the surface in order support operational flood forecasting. In particular, a daily national map of Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) is produced that is based on surface soil moisture deficit and threshold runoff estimates. Flash flood warnings are issued by Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) and are underpinned by information from the Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) system operated by the River Forecast Centers (RFCs). This study analyzes the accuracy and limitations of the FFG system using reported flash flood cases in 2010 and 2011. The flash flood reports were obtained from the NWS Storm Event database for the Arkansas-Red Basin RFC (ABRFC). The current FFG system at the ABRFC provides gridded flash flood guidance (GFFG) System using the NWS Hydrology Laboratory-Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM) to translate the upper zone soil moisture to estimates of Soil Conservation Service Curve Numbers. Comparison of the GFFG and real-time Multi-sensor Precipitation Estimator derived Quantitative Precipitation Estimate (QPE) for the same duration and location were used to analyze the success of the system. Improved flash flood forecasting requires accurate and high resolution soil surface information. The remote sensing observations of soil moisture can improve the flood forecasting accuracy. The Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP) and Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellites are two potential sources of remotely sensed soil moisture data. SMOS measures the microwave radiation emitted from the Earth's surface operating at L-band (1.20-1.41 GHz) to measure surface soil moisture directly. Microwave radiation at this wavelength offers relatively deeper penetration and has lower sensitivity to vegetation impacts. The main objective of this research is to evaluate the contribution of remote sensing technology to quantifiable improvements in flash flood applications as well as adding a remote sensing component to the NWS FFG Algorithm. The challenge of this study is employing the direct soil moisture data from SMOS to replace the model-calculated soil moisture state which is based on the soil water balance in 4 km x 4 km Hydrologic Rainfall Analysis Project (HRAP) grid cells. In order to determine the value of the satellite data to NWS operations, the streamflow generated by HL-RDHM with and without soil moisture assimilation will be compared to USGS gauge data. Furthermore, we will apply the satellite-based soil moisture data with the FFG algorithm to evaluate how many hits, misses and false alarms are generated. This study will evaluate the value of remote sensing data in constraining the state of the system for main-stem and flash flood forecasting.

Seo, D.; Lakhankar, T.; Cosgrove, B.; Khanbilvardi, R.

2012-12-01

75

Short-term flood forecasting with a neurofuzzy model  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

This study explores the potential of the neurofuzzy computing paradigm to model the rainfall-runoff process for forecasting the river flow of Kolar basin in India. The neurofuzzy computing technique is a combination of a fuzzy computing approach and an artificial neural network technique. Parameter optimization in the model was performed by a combination of backpropagation and least squares error methods. Performance of the neurofuzzy model was comprehensively evaluated with that of independent fuzzy and neural network models developed for the same basin. The values of three performance evaluation criteria, namely, the coefficient of efficiency, the root-mean-square error, and the coefficient of correlation, were found to be very good and consistent for flows forecasted 1 hour in advance by the neurofuzzy model. The value of the relative error in peak flow prediction was within reasonable limits for the neurofuzzy model. The neurofuzzy model forecasted 47.95% of the total number of flow values 1 hour in advance with less than 1% relative error, while for the neural network and fuzzy models the corresponding values were 36.96 and 18.89%, respectively. The forecasts by the neurofuzzy model at higher lead times (up to 6 hours) are found to be better than those from the neural network model or the fuzzy model, implying that the neurofuzzy model seems to be well suited to exploit the information to model the nonlinear dynamics of the rainfall-runoff process.

Nayak, P. C.; Sudheer, K. P.; Rangan, D. M.; Ramasastri, K. S.

2005-04-01

76

Remodeling and Flood Forecasting due to Climate Change and Land Used:  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

This study is to review the impact of climate change and land used on flooding through the SMART Project. It also simulate the Flood Forecasting in Klang River Basin in order to compare the changes in the existing river system in Klang River Basin with the Storm water Management and Road Tunnel (SMART) which is now already operating in the city center of Kuala Lumpur.The catchment area of the Klang River basin is 1,288 square kilometers (km2), and it is the most urbanized region in Malaysia, encompassing the Federal Territory of Kuala Lumpur and part of the state of Selangor. The basin spreads over nine local government authorities and faces serious environmental degradation and flooding problems from urbanization, industrialization, and population growth. More than half of the basin has been urbanized, and much of this continuing urban development has taken place on land that is prone to flooding. Flooding problem in Klang River Basin is still exist even measures and numerous flood mitigation projects and programs has been carried out by many parties. Even though that the new drainage guideline has been proposed since year 2000, flood reduction for Klang River basins is not successful enough. This problem contributed to the needs of this research to enhance the existing flood forecasting and mitigation project. This study analyzed and quantified the spatial patterns and time-variability of daily, monthly and yearly rainfall in Kuala Lumpur. An overview of rainfall patterns will be obtained through the analysis of 12 point data sources. Statistical properties of annual, monthly, and daily rainfall were derived. Spatial correlation fields for the annual and monthly rainfalls were studied.

Mohammad, Munira; Bárdossy, András.

2010-05-01

77

Operational water management of Rijnland water system and pilot of ensemble forecasting system for flood control  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The Rijnland water system is situated in the western part of the Netherlands, and is a low-lying area of which 90% is below sea-level. The area covers 1,100 square kilometres, where 1.3 million people live, work, travel and enjoy leisure. The District Water Control Board of Rijnland is responsible for flood defence, water quantity and quality management. This includes design and maintenance of flood defence structures, control of regulating structures for an adequate water level management, and waste water treatment. For water quantity management Rijnland uses, besides an online monitoring network for collecting water level and precipitation data, a real time control decision support system. This decision support system consists of deterministic hydro-meteorological forecasts with a 24-hr forecast horizon, coupled with a control module that provides optimal operation schedules for the storage basin pumping stations. The uncertainty of the rainfall forecast is not forwarded in the hydrological prediction. At this moment 65% of the pumping capacity of the storage basin pumping stations can be automatically controlled by the decision control system. Within 5 years, after renovation of two other pumping stations, the total capacity of 200 m3/s will be automatically controlled. In critical conditions there is a need of both a longer forecast horizon and a probabilistic forecast. Therefore ensemble precipitation forecasts of the ECMWF are already consulted off-line during dry-spells, and Rijnland is running a pilot operational system providing 10-day water level ensemble forecasts. The use of EPS during dry-spells and the findings of the pilot will be presented. Challenges and next steps towards on-line implementation of ensemble forecasts for risk-based operational management of the Rijnland water system will be discussed. An important element in that discussion is the question: will policy and decision makers, operator and citizens adapt this Anticipatory Water management, including temporary lower storage basin levels and a reduction in extra investments for infrastructural measures.

van der Zwan, Rene

2013-04-01

78

Fuzzy computing based rainfall-runoff model for real time flood forecasting  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

This paper analyses the skills of fuzzy computing based rainfall-runoff model in real time flood forecasting. The potential of fuzzy computing has been demonstrated by developing a model for forecasting the river flow of Narmada basin in India. This work has demonstrated that fuzzy models can take advantage of their capability to simulate the unknown relationships between a set of relevant hydrological data such as rainfall and river flow. Many combinations of input variables were presented to the model with varying structures as a sensitivity study to verify the conclusions about the coherence between precipitation, upstream runoff and total watershed runoff. The most appropriate set of input variables was determined, and the study suggests that the river flow of Narmada behaves more like an autoregressive process. As the precipitation is weighted only a little by the model, the last time-steps of measured runoff are dominating the forecast. Thus a forecast based on expected rainfall becomes very inaccurate. Although good results for one-step-ahead forecasts are received, the accuracy deteriorates as the lead time increases. Using the one-step-ahead forecast model recursively to predict flows at higher lead time, however, produces better results as opposed to different independent fuzzy models to forecast flows at various lead times.

Nayak, P. C.; Sudheer, K. P.; Ramasastri, K. S.

2005-03-01

79

Assessment of sewer flooding model based on ensemble quantitative precipitation forecast  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Short duration rainfall intensity in Taiwan has increased in recent years, which results in street runoff exceeding the design capacity of storm sewer systems and causing inundation in urban areas. If potential inundation areas could be forecasted in advance and warnings message disseminated in time, additional reaction time for local disaster mitigation units and residents should be able to reduce inundation damage. In general, meteorological-hydrological ensemble forecast systems require moderately long lead times. The time-consuming modeling process is usually less amenable to the needs of real-time flood warnings. Therefore, the main goal of this study is to establish an inundation evaluation system suitable for all metropolitan areas in Taiwan in conjunction with the quantitative precipitation forecast technology developed by the Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute, which can be used for inundation forecast 24 h before the arrival of typhoons. In this study, information for the design capacity of storm sewer throughout Taiwan was collected. Two methods are proposed to evaluate the inundations: (a) evaluation based on the criterion of sewer capacity (CSC), and (b) evaluation based on the percentage of ensemble members (PEM). In addition, the probability of inundation is classified into four levels (high, medium, low, and no inundation). To verify the accuracy of the proposed system, Typhoon Megi and Typhoon Nanmadol were used as test cases. Four verification indices were adopted to evaluate the probability of inundation for metropolitan areas during typhoons. The inundation evaluation results basically match the observed data on flooding, which demonstrate that this flood evaluation system has an effective grasp on the probability of inundation for storm sewer systems.

Lee, Cheng-Shang; Ho, Hsin-Ya; Lee, Kwan Tun; Wang, Yu-Chi; Guo, Wen-Dar; Chen, Delia Yen-Chu; Hsiao, Ling-Feng; Chen, Cheng-Hsin; Chiang, Chou-Chun; Yang, Ming-Jen; Kuo, Hung-Chi

2013-12-01

80

A distributed hydrological model for drought and flood forecast in the upper Yangtze River basin  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The Yangzte River (also called Changjiang in Chinese) is the largest river basin in China, which has frequent flood and drought. Building on the physically-based description of hydrological processes, a distributed model has been established in the upper Yangtze River for drought and flood forecast have been addressed in this study. For assessing water resources and drought, a large scale distributed hydrological model has been chosen for the upper Yangtze River which has about 1 million km2 area. In this model, the whole area is divided into a discrete grid system of 10km size, and each grid is represented by a number of geometrically-symmetrical hillslopes. Hydrological simulation has been carried out during 1961~2000, the simulated river discharges, soil moisture and evapotranspiration provided an inside investigation into water resources in the study basin. Results showed that the ratio of seasonal runoff to annual one has a significant increasing trend in summer in the eastern Sichuan basin and the Three Gorges region in the 1990s, but a decreasing trend in autumn. This implies an increasing flood risk in summer and water shortage in autumn. Based on the results of hydrological simulation, a new monthly drought index, GBHM-PDSI, was proposed based on the Palmer Drought Severity Index. It was found that the new drought index has advantages for describing the temporal change of drought severity and the spatial variation. In order to reduce the uncertainties of real time flood forecast in the Three Gorges region, the radar rainfall data has been used together with the smaller scale (1km grid size) distributed hydrological model. Results showed, by means of distributed model combining with radar rainfall data, it could capture adequately the spatial variation of rainstorm, and provide better flood forecast at real time.

Jijun, X.; Dawen, Y.; Zhidong, L.; Wei, H.

2007-12-01

81

Simulating and Forecasting Flooding Events in the City of Jeddah, Saudi Arabia  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metropolitan cities in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, as Jeddah and Riyadh, are more frequently experiencing flooding events caused by strong convective storms that produce intense precipitation over a short span of time. The flooding in the city of Jeddah in November 2009 was described by civil defense officials as the worst in 27 years. As of January 2010, 150 people were reported killed and more than 350 were missing. Another flooding event, less damaging but comparably spectacular, occurred one year later (Jan 2011) in Jeddah. Anticipating floods before they occur could minimize human and economic losses through the implementation of appropriate protection, provision and rescue plans. We have developed a coupled hydro-meteorological model for simulating and predicting flooding events in the city of Jeddah. We use the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model assimilating all available data in the Jeddah region for simulating the storm events in Jeddah. The resulting rain is then used on 10 minutes intervals to feed up an advanced numerical shallow water model that has been discretized on an unstructured grid using different numerical schemes based on the finite elements or finite volume techniques. The model was integrated on a high-resolution grid size varying between 0.5m within the streets of Jeddah and 500m outside the city. This contribution will present the flooding simulation system and the simulation results, focusing on the comparison of the different numerical schemes on the system performances in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency.

Ghostine, Rabih; Viswanadhapalli, Yesubabu; Hoteit, Ibrahim

2014-05-01

82

Coupling meteorological and hydrological models for flood forecasting Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 9(4), 333346 (2005) EGU  

E-print Network

Coupling meteorological and hydrological models for flood forecasting 333 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 9(4), 333346 (2005) © EGU Coupling meteorological and hydrological models for flood.bartholmes@jrc.it Abstract This paper deals with the problem of analysing the coupling of meteorological meso

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

83

Flooding in Virginia  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

In this activity, students use a National Weather Service flood forecast, USGS gauging data, and other reports to estimate the maximum storm discharge from the New River and Wolf Creek, two streams in the Southeast U.S. which experienced flooding in November 2003. Topographic and urban maps are used to predict where flooding would occur and to evaluate strategies for reducing flood risk for the residents of the region.

Patrick, Ew

84

A search for model parsimony in a real time flood forecasting system  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

As regards the hydrological simulation of flood events, a physically based distributed approach is the most appealing one, especially in those areas where the spatial variability of the soil hydraulic properties as well as of the meteorological forcing cannot be left apart, such as in mountainous regions. On the other hand, dealing with real time flood forecasting systems, less detailed models requiring a minor number of parameters may be more convenient, reducing both the computational costs and the calibration uncertainty. In fact in this case a precise quantification of the entire hydrograph pattern is not necessary, while the expected output of a real time flood forecasting system is just an estimate of the peak discharge, the time to peak and in some cases the flood volume. In this perspective a parsimonious model has to be found in order to increase the efficiency of the system. A suitable case study was identified in the northern Apennines: the Taro river is a right tributary to the Po river and drains about 2000 km2 of mountains, hills and floodplain, equally distributed . The hydrometeorological monitoring of this medium sized watershed is managed by ARPA Emilia Romagna through a dense network of uptodate gauges (about 30 rain gauges and 10 hydrometers). Detailed maps of the surface elevation, land use and soil texture characteristics are also available. Five flood events were recorded by the new monitoring network in the years 2003-2007: during these events the peak discharge was higher than 1000 m3/s, which is actually quite a high value when compared to the mean discharge rate of about 30 m3/s. The rainfall spatial patterns of such storms were analyzed in previous works by means of geostatistical tools and a typical semivariogram was defined, with the aim of establishing a typical storm structure leading to flood events in the Taro river. The available information was implemented into a distributed flood event model with a spatial resolution of 90m; then the hydrologic detail was reduced by progressively assuming a uniform rainfall field and constant soil properties. A semi-distributed model, obtained by subdividing the catchment into three sub-catchment, and a lumped model were also applied to simulate the selected flood events. Errors were quantified in terms of the peak discharge ratio, the flood volume and the time to peak by comparing the simulated hydrographs to the observed ones.

Grossi, G.; Balistrocchi, M.

2009-04-01

85

Real-time forecast of the 2005 and 2007 summer severe floods in the Huaihe River Basin of China  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

SummaryWe have developed a one-way coupled hydro-meteorological modeling system consisting of the mesoscale atmospheric model MC2 (Canadian Mesoscale Compressible Community), the Chinese Xinanjiang hydrological model for runoff generation, a flow routing model, and a module for acquiring real-time gauge precipitation. The system had been successfully tested in a hindcast mode using a total of 18 meteorological cases from 1998 and 2003 in the Huaihe River Basin (HRB; 270,000 km 2) of China, and has been used to generate daily precipitation and flood forecasts in real-time for the 2005, 2006 and 2007 flooding season over the Wangjiaba sub-basin (30,500 km 2), part of the HRB. We run MC2 daily to produce a 96-h precipitation forecast, and then use the combined gauge-model precipitation to drive the hydrological model off-line to forecast the hydrograph at the Wangjiaba Station that is at the outlet of the Wangjiaba sub-basin. We examine the daily forecasts for the two most severe flood events encountered in the past three flooding seasons. The two events occurred in July 4-15, 2005 and June 30-July 25, 2007, which necessitated the use of several flood spillway and flood detention areas along the mainstream of the Huaihe River. A total of 19 daily 96-h precipitation forecasts from the two events are examined. The 19 daily forecasts with different lead times compare reasonably well with observations, although the skill as measured by the MC2 relative error and the MC2 forecast success rate is uneven over a 4-day forecast period. MC2 can better forecast the 96-h accumulation compared to 24-h amounts. We also analyze 10 daily hydrograph forecasts from the two events. The flood peak of the two events at the Wangjiaba Station is predicted well in both timing and intensity with a lead time beyond four days, although the quality of our daily hydrograph forecasts as measured by the relative percentage error of the forecast peak discharge and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient is not uniform over different forecast days. It is clear that the skill of the MC2 precipitation has the largest effect on the predicted hydrographs, and the accuracy of daily hydrograph forecasts can be improved substantially using the up-to-date gauge precipitation to complement the MC2 precipitation for driving the hydrological model in real-time flood forecast. Our results demonstrate the applicability and the value of using mesoscale model precipitation for real-time flood forecast over the Wangjiaba sub-basin, which can provide a long lead time of heavy precipitation and subsequent flooding for authorities in operational flood management decision making. The results also illustrate the potential of applying the coupled hydro-meteorological modeling system for real-time flood forecast over other regions.

Lin, Charles A.; Wen, Lei; Lu, Guihua; Wu, Zhiyong; Zhang, Jianyun; Yang, Yang; Zhu, Yufei; Tong, Linying

2010-02-01

86

75 FR 54076 - National Flood Insurance Program, Policy Wording Correction  

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013

...Management Agency 44 CFR Part 61 [Docket ID: FEMA-2010-0021] RIN 1660-AA70 National Flood...the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is proposing a technical correction to the FEMA, Federal Insurance and Mitigation...

2010-09-03

87

76 FR 7508 - National Flood Insurance Program, Policy Wording Correction  

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013

...Management Agency 44 CFR Part 61 [Docket ID: FEMA-2010-0021] RIN 1660-AA70 National Flood...Rulemaking, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) proposed a technical correction to the FEMA, Federal Insurance and Mitigation...

2011-02-10

88

Visualising probabilistic flood forecast information: expert preferences and perceptions of best practice in uncertainty communication  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The aim of this paper is to understand and to contribute to improved communication of the probabilistic flood forecasts generated by Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems (HEPS) with particular focus on the inter expert communication. Different users are likely to require different kinds of information from HEPS and thus different visualizations. The perceptions of this expert group are important both because they are the designers and primary users of existing HEPS. Nevertheless, they have sometimes resisted the release of uncertainty information to the general public because of doubts about whether it can be successfully communicated in ways that would be readily understood to non-experts. In this paper we explore the strengths and weaknesses of existing HEPS visualization methods and thereby formulate some wider recommendations about best practice for HEPS visualization and communication. We suggest that specific training on probabilistic forecasting would foster use of probabilistic forecasts with a wider range of applications. The result of a case study exercise showed that there is no overarching agreement between experts on how to display probabilistic forecasts and what they consider essential information that should accompany plots and diagrams. In this paper we propose a list of minimum properties that, if consistently displayed with probabilistic forecasts, would make the products more easily understandable.

Pappenberger, F.; Stephens, E. M.; Thielen, J.; Salomon, P.; Demeritt, D.; van Andel, S.; Wetterhall, F.; Alfieri, L.

2011-12-01

89

Development of Hydrological Model of Klang River Valley for flood forecasting  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

This study is to review the impact of climate change and land used on flooding through the Klang River and to compare the changes in the existing river system in Klang River Basin with the Storm water Management and Road Tunnel (SMART) which is now already operating in the city centre of Kuala Lumpur. Klang River Basin is the most urbanized region in Malaysia. More than half of the basin has been urbanized on the land that is prone to flooding. Numerous flood mitigation projects and studies have been carried out to enhance the existing flood forecasting and mitigation project. The objective of this study is to develop a hydrological model for flood forecasting in Klang Basin Malaysia. Hydrological modelling generally requires large set of input data and this is more often a challenge for a developing country. Due to this limitation, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rainfall measurement, initiated by the US space agency NASA and Japanese space agency JAXA was used in this study. TRMM data was transformed and corrected by quantile to quantile transformation. However, transforming the data based on ground measurement doesn't make any significant improvement and the statistical comparison shows only 10% difference. The conceptual HYMOD model was used in this study and calibrated using ROPE algorithm. But, using the whole time series of the observation period in this area resulted in insufficient performance. The depth function which used in ROPE algorithm are then used to identified and calibrated using only unusual event to observed the improvement and efficiency of the model.

Mohammad, M.; Andras, B.

2012-12-01

90

Advance flood forecasting for flood stricken Bangladesh with a fuzzy reasoning method  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An artificial Neural Network (NN) was successfully applied, in an earlier study, as a prediction tool to forecast water level at Dhaka (Bangladesh), for up to seven lead days in advance, with a high accuracy level. In addition, this high accuracy degree was accompanied with a very short computational time. Both make NN a desirable advance warming forecasting tool. In a later study, a sensitivity analysis was also performed to retain only the most sensitive gauging stations for the Dhaka station. The resulting reduction of gauging stations insignificantly affects the prediction accuracy level.The work concerning the possibility of measurement failure in any of the gauging stations during the critical flow level at Dhaka requires prediction tools which can interpret linguistic assessment of flow levels. A fuzzy logic approach is introduced with two or three membership functions, depending on necessity, for the input stations with five membership functions for the output station. Membership functions for each station are derived from their respective water level frequency distributions, after the Kohonen neural network is used to group the data into clusters. The proposed approach in deriving membership function shows a number of advances over the approach commonly used. When prediction results are compared with measured data, the prediction accuracy level is comparable with that of the data driven neural network approach.

Liong, Shie-Yui; Lim, Wee-Han; Kojiri, Toshiharu; Hori, Tomoharu

2000-02-01

91

Probabilistic flood forecasting tool for Andalusia (Spain). Application to September 2012 disaster event in Vera Playa.  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torrential and heavy rains are frequent in Andalusia (Southern Spain) due to the characteristic Mediterranean climate (semi-arid areas). This, in combination with a massive occupation of floodable (river sides) and coastal areas, produces severe problems of management and damage to the population and social and economical activities when extreme events occur. Some of the most important problems are being produced during last years in Almería (Southeastern Andalusia). Between 27 and 28 September 2012 rainstorms characterized by 240mm in 24h (exceeding precipitation for a return period of 500 years) occurred. Antas River and Jático creek, that are normally dry, became raging torrents. The massive flooding of occupied areas resulted in eleven deaths and two missing in Andalucía, with a total estimated cost of all claims for compensation on the order of 197 million euros. This study presents a probabilistic flood forecasting tool including the effect of river and marine forcings. It is based on a distributed, physically-based hydrological model (WiMMed). For Almería the model has been calibrated with the largest event recorded in Cantoria gauging station (data since 1965) on 19 October 1973. It was then validated with the second strongest event (26 October 1977). Among the different results of the model, it can provide probability floods scenarios in Andalusia with up 10 days weather forecasts. The tool has been applied to Vera, a 15.000 inhabitants town located in the east of Almería along the Antas River at an altitude of 95 meters. Its main economic resource is the "beach and sun" based-tourism, which has experienced an enormous growth during last decades. Its coastal stretch has been completely built in these years, occupying floodable areas and constricting the channel and rivers mouths. Simulations of the model in this area for the 1973 event and published in March 2011 on the internet event already announced that the floods of September 2012 may occur.

García, Darío; Baquerizo, Asunción; Ortega, Miguel; Herrero, Javier; Ángel Losada, Miguel

2013-04-01

92

Observed and forecast flood-inundation mapping application-A pilot study of an eleven-mile reach of the White River, Indianapolis, Indiana  

USGS Publications Warehouse

A Service-Oriented Architecture-based dynamic flood-inundation application was developed and was designed to start automatically during a flood, obtain near real-time and forecast data (from the colocated USGS streamgage and NWS flood forecast point within the study reach), run the two-dimensional hydraulic model, and produce flood-inundation maps. The application used local building data and depth-damage curves to estimate flood losses based on the maps, and it served inundation maps and flood-loss estimates through a Web-based graphical user interface.

Kim, Moon H.; Morlock, Scott E.; Arihood, Leslie D.; Kiesler, James L.

2011-01-01

93

Flood forecasting for the Ukrainian part of the Tisza Basin: linking with the numerical weather forecasts, comparative testing of distributed and lumped models  

Microsoft Academic Search

The implementation of new flood forecasting systems for the Ukrainian part of the Tisza basin has started last years by the customisation of Mike-11 model for the Uzh River and Latoritsa River (part of the Bodrog Catchment) in the frame of the joint project with the 'DHI Water&Environment'. The calibration and testing of the lumped parameter model NAM was provided

S. Belov; G. Donchytz; S. Kivva; A. Kuschan; M. Zheleznyak

2003-01-01

94

Assessment of a fuzzy based flood forecasting system optimized by simulated annealing  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flood forecasting is an important tool to mitigate harmful effects of floods. Among the many different approaches for forecasting, Fuzzy Logic (FL) is one that has been increasingly applied over the last decade. This method is principally based on the linguistic description of Rule Systems (RS). A RS is a specific combination of membership functions of input and output variables. Setting up the RS can be implemented either automatically or manually, the choice of which can strongly influence the resulting rule systems. It is therefore the objective of this study to assess the influence that the parameters of an automated rule generation based on Simulated Annealing (SA) have on the resulting RS. The study area is the upper Main River area, located in the northern part of Bavaria, Germany. The data of Mainleus gauge with area of 1165 km2 was investigated in the whole period of 1984 and 2004. The highest observed discharge of 357 m3/s was recorded in 1995. The input arguments of the FL model were daily precipitation, forecasted precipitation, antecedent precipitation index, temperature and melting rate. The FL model of this study has one output variable, daily discharge and was independently set up for three different forecast lead times, namely one-, two- and three-days ahead. In total, each RS comprised 55 rules and all input and output variables were represented by five sets of trapezoidal and triangular fuzzy numbers. Simulated Annealing, which is a converging optimum solution algorithm, was applied for optimizing the RSs in this study. In order to assess the influence of its parameters (number of iterations, temperature decrease rate, initial value for generating random numbers, initial temperature and two other parameters), they were individually varied while keeping the others fixed. With each of the resulting parameter sets, a full-automatic SA was applied to gain optimized fuzzy rule systems for flood forecasting. Evaluation of the performance of the resulting fuzzy rule forecasting systems (with the intention to draw conclusions on the best SA parameters) was carried out in two steps: a) Evaluation of objective functions such as Nash-Sutcliffe and RMSE for all RSs. b) Manual evaluation of the preselected results from the first step. The evaluation was based on visual inspection (scatter plots, time-series and Degree Of Fulfilment (DOF) graphs) as well as logical interpretation of the rule systems. Comparing the results showed that there were SA parameter sets which lead to forecast systems of equally high quality (with respect to objective criteria such as Nash-Sutcliffe), however the underlying rule systems significantly varied from each other. Therefore, manual inspection played a key role in finding the overall best results. In the presentation, the procedure of preparing different sets of SA parameters, the evaluation process of different results and the performance of the optimal RS will be explained and presented by an example.

Reyhani Masouleh, Aida; Pakosch, Sabine; Disse, Markus

2010-05-01

95

A flood routing Muskingum type simulation and forecasting model based on level data alone  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

While the use of remote hydrometers for measuring the level in water courses is both economical and widespread, the same cannot be said for cross section and channel profile measurements and, even less, for rating curves at the measuring cross sections, all of which are more often than not incomplete, out of date, and unreliable. The mass of data involved in level measurements alone induces a degree of perplexity in those who try to use them, for example, for flood event simulations or the construction of forecasting models which are not purely statistical. This paper proposes a method which uses recorded level data alone to construct a simulation model and a forecasting model, both of them characterized by an extremely simple structure that can be used on any pocket calculator. These models, referring to a river reach bounded by two measuring sections, furnish the downstream levels, where the upstream levels are known, and the downstream level at time t + ?t*, where the upstream and downstream levels are known at time t, respectively. The numerical applications performed show that while the simulation model is somewhat penalized by the simplifications adopted, giving not consistently satisfactory results on validation, the forecasting model generated good results in all the cases examined and seems reliable.

Franchini, Marco; Lamberti, Paolo

1994-07-01

96

On noise specification in data assimilation schemes for improved flood forecasting using distributed hydrological models  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We investigate the effects of noise specification on the quality of hydrological forecasts via an advanced data assimilation (DA) procedure using a distributed hydrological model driven by numerical weather predictions. The sequential DA procedure is based on (1) a multivariate rainfall ensemble generator, which provides spatial and temporal correlation error structures of input forcing, and (2) lagged particle filtering to update past and current state variables simultaneously in a lag-time window to consider the response times of internal hydrologic processes. The procedure is evaluated for streamflow forecasting of three flood events in two fast-responding catchments in Japan (Maruyama and Katsura). The rainfall ensembles are derived from ground-based rain gauge observations for the analysis step and numerical weather predictions for the forecast step. The ensemble simulation performs multi-site updating using information from the streamflow gauging network and considers the artificial effects of reservoir release. Sensitivity analysis is performed to assess the impacts of noise specification in DA, comparing a different setup of random state noise and input forcing with/without multivariate conditional simulation (MCS) of rainfall ensembles. The results show that lagged particle filtering (LPF) forced with MCS provides good performance with small and consistent random state noise, whereas LPF forced with Thiessen rainfall interpolation requires larger random state noise to yield performance comparable to that of LPF + MCS for short lead times.

Noh, Seong Jin; Rakovec, Old?ich; Weerts, Albrecht H.; Tachikawa, Yasuto

2014-11-01

97

Assimilation of soil moisture observations from remote sensing in operational flood forecasting  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flooding and the resulting damages occurred in Europe in recent decades showed that the need of a preparation to critical events can be considered as a key factor in reducing their impact on society. It has been shown that early warning systems may reduce significantly the direct and indirect damages and costs of a flood impact. In order to improve the forecasting systems, data assimilation methods were proposed in the last years to integrate real-time observations into hydrological and hydrodynamic models. The aim of this work is to assimilate observations of soil moisture into an operational flood forecasting system in Italy in order to evaluate the effect on the water level along the main river channel. The methodology is applied in the Bacchiglione catchment, located in the North of Italy, having a drainage area of about 1400 km2, length of main reach of 118km and average discharge of 30m3/s at Padova. In order to represent this system, the Bacchiglione basin was considered as a set of different sub-basins characterized by its own hydrologic response and connected each other mainly by propagation phenomena. A 1D hydrodynamic model was then used to estimate water level along the main channel. The assimilation of the soil moisture observations was carried out using a variant of the Kalman filter-based technique. The main idea of this study was to update the model state (the soil water capacity) as response of the distributed information of soil moisture, and then estimate the flow hydrograph at the basin outlet. As a basis we used the approach by Brocca et al.(2012), using a different model structure and with adaption allowing for real-time use. The results of this work show how the added value of soil moisture into the hydrological model can improve the forecast of the flow hydrograph and the consequent water level in the main channel. This study is part of the FP7 European Project WeSenseIt. [1] Brocca, L., Moramarco, T., Melone, F., Wagner, W., Hasenauer, S., and Hahn, S. (2012) Assimilation of Surface- and Root-Zone ASCAT Soil Moisture Products Into Rainfall-Runoff Modeling, IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, 50(7), 2542-2555

Mazzoleni, Maurizio; Alfonso, Leonardo; Ferri, Michele; Monego, Martina; Norbiato, Daniele; Solomatine, Dimitri P.

2014-05-01

98

Forecasting of Storm-Surge Floods Using ADCIRC and Optimized DEMs  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Increasing the accuracy of storm-surge flood forecasts is essential for improving preparedness for hurricanes and other severe storms and, in particular, for optimizing evacuation scenarios. An interactive database, developed by WorldWinds, Inc., contains atlases of storm-surge flood levels for the Louisiana/Mississippi gulf coast region. These atlases were developed to improve forecasting of flooding along the coastline and estuaries and in adjacent inland areas. Storm-surge heights depend on a complex interaction of several factors, including: storm size, central minimum pressure, forward speed of motion, bottom topography near the point of landfall, astronomical tides, and, most importantly, maximum wind speed. The information in the atlases was generated in over 100 computational simulations, partly by use of a parallel-processing version of the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model. ADCIRC is a nonlinear computational model of hydrodynamics, developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the US Navy, as a family of two- and three-dimensional finite-element-based codes. It affords a capability for simulating tidal circulation and storm-surge propagation over very large computational domains, while simultaneously providing high-resolution output in areas of complex shoreline and bathymetry. The ADCIRC finite-element grid for this project covered the Gulf of Mexico and contiguous basins, extending into the deep Atlantic Ocean with progressively higher resolution approaching the study area. The advantage of using ADCIRC over other storm-surge models, such as SLOSH, is that input conditions can include all or part of wind stress, tides, wave stress, and river discharge, which serve to make the model output more accurate. To keep the computational load manageable, this work was conducted using only the wind stress, calculated by using historical data from Hurricane Camille, as the input condition for the model. Hurricane storm-surge simulations were performed on an eight-node Linux computer cluster. Each node contained dual 2-GHz processors, 2GB of memory, and a 40GB hard drive. The digital elevation model (DEM) for this region was specified using a combination of Navy data (over water), NOAA data (for the coastline), and optimized Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data (over land). This high-resolution topographical data of the Mississippi coastal region provided the ADCIRC model with improved input with which to calculate improved storm-surge forecasts.

Valenti, Elizabeth; Fitzpatrick, Patrick

2006-01-01

99

An integrated error parameter estimation and lag-aware data assimilation scheme for real-time flood forecasting  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

For operational flood forecasting, discharge observations may be assimilated into a hydrologic model to improve forecasts. However, the performance of conventional filtering schemes can be degraded by ignoring the time lag between soil moisture and discharge responses. This has led to ongoing development of more appropriate ways to implement sequential data assimilation. In this paper, an ensemble Kalman smoother (EnKS) with fixed time window is implemented for the GR4H hydrologic model (modèle du Génie Rural à 4 paramètres Horaire) to update current and antecedent model states. Model and observation error parameters are estimated through the maximum a posteriori method constrained by prior information drawn from flow gauging data. When evaluated in a hypothetical forecasting mode using observed rainfall, the EnKS is found to be more stable and produce more accurate discharge forecasts than a standard ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) by reducing the mean of the ensemble root mean squared error (MRMSE) by 13-17%. The latter tends to over-correct current model states and leads to spurious peaks and oscillations in discharge forecasts. When evaluated in a real-time forecasting mode using rainfall forecasts from a numerical weather prediction model, the benefit of the EnKS is reduced as uncertainty in rainfall forecasts becomes dominant, especially at large forecast lead time.

Li, Yuan; Ryu, Dongryeol; Western, Andrew W.; Wang, Q. J.; Robertson, David E.; Crow, Wade T.

2014-11-01

100

Calibration and parameterization of a semi-distributed hydrological model to support sub-daily ensemble flood forecasting; a watershed in southeast Brazil  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The use of distributed or semi-distributed models to represent the processes and dynamics of a watershed in the last few years has increased. These models are important tools to predict and forecast the hydrological responses of the watersheds, and they can subside disaster risk management and planning. However they usually have a lot of parameters, of which, due to the spatial and temporal variability of the processes, are not known, specially in developing countries; therefore a robust and sensible calibration is very important. This study conduced a sub-daily calibration and parameterization of the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for a 12,600 km2 watershed in southeast Brazil, and uses ensemble forecasts to evaluate if the model can be used as a tool for flood forecasting. The Piracicaba Watershed, in São Paulo State, is mainly rural, but has about 4 million of population in highly relevant urban areas, and three cities in the list of critical cities of the National Center for Natural Disasters Monitoring and Alerts. For calibration: the watershed was divided in areas with similar hydrological characteristics, for each of these areas one gauge station was chosen for calibration; this procedure was performed to evaluate the effectiveness of calibrating in fewer places, since areas with the same group of groundwater, soil, land use and slope characteristics should have similar parameters; making calibration a less time-consuming task. The sensibility analysis and calibration were performed on the software SWAT-CUP with the optimization algorithm: Sequential Uncertainly Fitting Version 2 (SUFI-2), which uses Latin hypercube sampling scheme in an iterative process. The performance of the models to evaluate the calibration and validation was done with: Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE), determination coefficient (r2), root mean square error (RMSE), and percent bias (PBIAS), with monthly average values of NSE around 0.70, r2 of 0.9, normalized RMSE of 0.01, and PBIAS of 10. Past events were analysed to evaluate the possibility of using the SWAT developed model for Piracicaba watershed as a tool for ensemble flood forecasting. For the ensemble evaluation members from the numerical model Eta were used. Eta is an atmospheric model used for research and operational purposes, with 5km resolution, and is updated twice a day (00 e 12 UTC) for a ten day horizon, with precipitation and weather estimates for each hour. The parameterized SWAT model performed overall well for ensemble flood forecasting.

de Almeida Bressiani, D.; Srinivasan, R.; Mendiondo, E. M.

2013-12-01

101

Real-time multi-step-ahead water level forecasting by recurrent neural networks for urban flood control  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urban flood control is a crucial task, which commonly faces fast rising peak flows resulting from urbanization. To mitigate future flood damages, it is imperative to construct an on-line accurate model to forecast inundation levels during flood periods. The Yu-Cheng Pumping Station located in Taipei City of Taiwan is selected as the study area. Firstly, historical hydrologic data are fully explored by statistical techniques to identify the time span of rainfall affecting the rise of the water level in the floodwater storage pond (FSP) at the pumping station. Secondly, effective factors (rainfall stations) that significantly affect the FSP water level are extracted by the Gamma test (GT). Thirdly, one static artificial neural network (ANN) (backpropagation neural network-BPNN) and two dynamic ANNs (Elman neural network-Elman NN; nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs-NARX network) are used to construct multi-step-ahead FSP water level forecast models through two scenarios, in which scenario I adopts rainfall and FSP water level data as model inputs while scenario II adopts only rainfall data as model inputs. The results demonstrate that the GT can efficiently identify the effective rainfall stations as important inputs to the three ANNs; the recurrent connections from the output layer (NARX network) impose more effects on the output than those of the hidden layer (Elman NN) do; and the NARX network performs the best in real-time forecasting. The NARX network produces coefficients of efficiency within 0.9-0.7 (scenario I) and 0.7-0.5 (scenario II) in the testing stages for 10-60-min-ahead forecasts accordingly. This study suggests that the proposed NARX models can be valuable and beneficial to the government authority for urban flood control.

Chang, Fi-John; Chen, Pin-An; Lu, Ying-Ray; Huang, Eric; Chang, Kai-Yao

2014-09-01

102

Operational hydro-meteorological warning and real-time flood forecasting:the Piemonte region case study Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 9(4), 457466 (2005) EGU  

E-print Network

Operational hydro-meteorological warning and real-time flood forecasting:the Piemonte region case study 457 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 9(4), 457466 (2005) © EGU Operational hydro-meteorological forecasting system in the context of the Piemonte Regions hydro-meteorological operational alert procedure

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

103

A Multiseason Climate Forecast System at the National Meteorological Center  

Microsoft Academic Search

The Coupled Model Project was established at the National Meteorological Center(NMC)in January l991 to develop a multiseason forecast system based on coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models. This provided a focus to combine expertise in near real-time ocean modeling and analyses situated in the Climate Analysis Center (CAC) with expertise in atmospheric modeling and data assimilation in the Development Division.

Ming Ji; Arun Kumar; Ants Leetmaa

1994-01-01

104

Floods  

MedlinePLUS

... resources to educate and inform communities about the importance of flood safety awareness. After The Flood Fact Sheet Outreach Toolkit Materials As a leader in public information response to emergency situations, the ...

105

Comparison between genetic programming and an ensemble Kalman filter as data assimilation techniques for probabilistic flood forecasting  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flood events are among the natural disasters that cause most economic and social damages in Europe. Information and Communication Technology (ICT) developments in last years have enabled hydrometeorological observations available in real-time. High performance computing promises the improvement of real-time flood forecasting systems and makes the use of post processing techniques easier. This is the case of data assimilation techniques, which are used to develop an adaptive forecast model. In this paper, a real-time framework for probabilistic flood forecasting is presented and two data assimilation techniques are compared. The first data assimilation technique uses genetic programming to adapt the model to the observations as new information is available, updating the estimation of the probability distribution of the model parameters. The second data assimilation technique uses an ensemble Kalman filter to quantify errors in both hydrologic model and observations, updating estimates of system states. Both forecast models take the result of the hydrologic model calibration as a starting point and adapts the individuals of this first population to the new observations in each operation time step. Data assimilation techniques have great potential when are used in hydrological distributed models. The distributed RIBS (Real-time Interactive Basin Simulator) rainfall-runoff model was selected to simulate the hydrological process in the basin. The RIBS model is deterministic, but it is run in a probabilistic way through Monte Carlo simulations over the probability distribution functions that best characterise the most relevant model parameters, which were identified by a probabilistic multi-objective calibration developed in a previous work. The Manzanares River basin was selected as a case study. Data assimilation processes are computationally intensive. Therefore, they are well suited to test the applicability of the potential of the Grid technology to hydrometeorological research.

Mediero, L.; Garrote, L.; Requena, A.; Chávez, A.

2012-04-01

106

A two-stage method of quantitative flood risk analysis for reservoir real-time operation using ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quantitative analysis of the risk for reservoir real-time operation is a hard task owing to the difficulty of accurate description of inflow uncertainties. The ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts directly depict the inflows not only the marginal distributions but also their persistence via scenarios. This motivates us to analyze the reservoir real-time operating risk with ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts as inputs. A method is developed by using the forecast horizon point to divide the future time into two stages, the forecast lead-time and the unpredicted time. The risk within the forecast lead-time is computed based on counting the failure number of forecast scenarios, and the risk in the unpredicted time is estimated using reservoir routing with the design floods and the reservoir water levels of forecast horizon point. As a result, a two-stage risk analysis method is set up to quantify the entire flood risks by defining the ratio of the number of scenarios that excessive the critical value to the total number of scenarios. The China's Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) is selected as a case study, where the parameter and precipitation uncertainties are implemented to produce ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts. The Bayesian inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, is used to account for the parameter uncertainty. Two reservoir operation schemes, the real operated and scenario optimization, are evaluated for the flood risks and hydropower profits analysis. With the 2010 flood, it is found that the improvement of the hydrologic forecast accuracy is unnecessary to decrease the reservoir real-time operation risk, and most risks are from the forecast lead-time. It is therefore valuable to decrease the avarice of ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts with less bias for a reservoir operational purpose.

Liu, P.

2013-12-01

107

Developing a Web-based flood forecasting system for reservoirs with J2EE \\/ Développement sur Internet avec J2EE d’un système de prévision de crue pour barrages  

Microsoft Academic Search

A flood forecasting system is a crucial component in flood mitigation. For certain important large-scale reservoirs, cooperation and communication among federal, state, and local stakeholders are required when heavy flood events are encountered. The Web-based environment is emerging as a very important development and delivery platform for real-time flood forecasting systems. In this paper, the findings of a case study

Chun-Tian Cheng; K. W. Chau; Xiang-Yang Li; Gang Li

2004-01-01

108

Coupling Radar estimated precipitation with distributed hydrological model for flood forecast  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

CINRAD radar is China’s new generation digital weather radar with which more than 100 systems have been deployed currently in China. CINRAD uses a mixture of C-Band and S-Band radars that can detect heavy rain at an interval of 5-6 minutes at 9 elevation angles in the precipitation detection mode with a maximum radius of 460 km. CINRAD can work reliably under extreme weather conditions and at high spatial resolution (depending on the distance to the radar and not greater than 4 km2 spatial resolution). It is expected that CINRAD will contribute to the observation of extreme storms and estimate precipitation quantitatively over much of populated China at high temporal and spatial resolution. In particular, in Southern China where many extreme floods derive from Topical Cyclones the S-Band Doppler radars are likely to revolutionise the development of real-time flood forecasting system design. Physically based distributed hydrological models, which discrete the terrain of a whole basin into a number of squared grids, and assign different model parameters and rainfall to different grids, thus a better representation of the basin characteristics and the hydrologic process, has the potential to better simulate and predict the flood processes. In this study the method coupling a physically based distributed hydrological model-the Liuxihe Model with CINRAD estimated precipitation is tested in several cases in Southern China, including small catchments, large river basins and urban area. The three CINRAD radars studied include the ones deployed in Guangzhou, Shaoguan and Meizhou Cites with data in the past three years. Before employed to estimate precipitation, the radar data reflectivity data was first quality controlled with several procedures including volume scan data, missing data interpolation, abnormal reflectivity detection and correction and fine day reflectivity removal. The estimated precipitation then is corrected with the observed rain gauge precipitation before inputting to the hydrological model. Liuxihe Model divides the studied basin into a number of cells horizontally, which are further divided into 3 layers vertically. All cells are classified as hillslope cells, river cells and reservoir cells according to their flow accumulation while having its own properties and model parameters. The saturation excess mechanism is employed to determine the surface runoff while the interflow is calculated using Campbell’s equation. The runoff routing is divided into hillslope routing and river routing. The model parameters are categorized as unadjustable and adjustable parameters. The unadjustable parameters are derived directly from the cell’s properties, whlie the adjustable parameters are adjusted to improve the model performance with an iterative procedure. The results shows that the simulated peak flow and the hydrograph are quite reasonable compared with the observed river discharge. From this study it can be concluded that weather radar has advantages over rain gauges during extremely weather condition as it can provide reliable precipitation estimation and to better represent the spatial distribution of precipitation over the river basin.

Chen, Y.

2009-12-01

109

Development of A Real Time Physically-based Flood Forecasting System In The Piemonte Region, Italy  

Microsoft Academic Search

The development and implementation of the Piemonte RegionSs real-time Flood Fore- casting System is described. The area of interest is the Upper Po River basin (North- west Italy) of approximately 37000 km2 and its river network of about 3000 Km and 3 big lakes. FloodWatch, a GIS-based decision support system for real-time flood fore- casting has been developed and operationally

S. P. Barbero; D. Rabuffetti; M. Buffo; M. Graziadei

2002-01-01

110

Flood forecasting and analysis within the Ulus Basin, Turkey, using geographic information systems  

Microsoft Academic Search

Floods have been the most severe natural disasters in the West Black Sea Region of Turkey for many years; therefore Ulus Basin\\u000a is selected as a study area for a thorough hydrologic flood analysis. The lack of embankments around the Ulus River and careless\\u000a changes to the riverbed made by villagers, resulted in major flood events in the basin, causing

Nurünnisa Usul; Burak Turan

2006-01-01

111

Near-real-time simulation and internet-based delivery of forecast-flood inundation maps using two-dimensional hydraulic modeling--A pilot study for the Snoqualmie River, Washington  

USGS Publications Warehouse

A system of numerical hydraulic modeling, geographic information system processing, and Internet map serving, supported by new data sources and application automation, was developed that generates inundation maps for forecast floods in near real time and makes them available through the Internet. Forecasts for flooding are generated by the National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Center (RFC); these forecasts are retrieved automatically by the system and prepared for input to a hydraulic model. The model, TrimR2D, is a new, robust, two-dimensional model capable of simulating wide varieties of discharge hydrographs and relatively long stream reaches. TrimR2D was calibrated for a 28-kilometer reach of the Snoqualmie River in Washington State, and is used to estimate flood extent, depth, arrival time, and peak time for the RFC forecast. The results of the model are processed automatically by a Geographic Information System (GIS) into maps of flood extent, depth, and arrival and peak times. These maps subsequently are processed into formats acceptable by an Internet map server (IMS). The IMS application is a user-friendly interface to access the maps over the Internet; it allows users to select what information they wish to see presented and allows the authors to define scale-dependent availability of map layers and their symbology (appearance of map features). For example, the IMS presents a background of a digital USGS 1:100,000-scale quadrangle at smaller scales, and automatically switches to an ortho-rectified aerial photograph (a digital photograph that has camera angle and tilt distortions removed) at larger scales so viewers can see ground features that help them identify their area of interest more effectively. For the user, the option exists to select either background at any scale. Similar options are provided for both the map creator and the viewer for the various flood maps. This combination of a robust model, emerging IMS software, and application interface programming should allow the technology developed in the pilot study to be applied to other river systems where NWS forecasts are provided routinely.

Jones, Joseph L.; Fulford, Janice M.; Voss, Frank D.

2002-01-01

112

Floods  

MedlinePLUS

... when a levee is breached, or when a dam breaks. Flash floods, which can develop quickly, often ... lying area, near water or downstream from a dam. Although there are no guarantees of safety during ...

113

A Performance Evaluation of the National Air Quality Forecast Capability for the Summer of 2007  

EPA Science Inventory

This paper provides a performance evaluation of the real-time, CONUS-scale National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC), developed collaboratively by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), that supported, in part,...

114

CLIMATE, CYCLONES, AND LARGE FLOODS IN THE ASIA-AUSTRALIA MONSOON National University of Singapore  

E-print Network

CLIMATE, CYCLONES, AND LARGE FLOODS IN THE ASIA-AUSTRALIA MONSOON REGION R.J.Wasson National University of Singapore Date: 2 November 2011 Venue: Blue 5.1.01 Time: 1-2pm Tropical cyclones (hurricanes cyclones and large floods are not stationary, and the relationship with average climate is complex. Also

115

Floods  

MedlinePLUS

... Children Safe From Drowning in Flooded Areas Avoiding Carbon Monoxide Poisoning During a Power Outage Driving Through Water After a Disaster Preventing Trench Foot or Immersion Foot Identification and Treatment of Hypothermia Related to Exposure While Working in Cold Water General Information about ...

116

Flood forecasting using a fully distributed model: application of the TOPKAPI model to the Upper Xixian Catchment Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 9(4), 347364 (2005) EGU  

E-print Network

Xixian Catchment 347 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 9(4), 347364 (2005) © EGU Flood forecasting Liu1 , Mario L.V. Martina2 and Ezio Todini2 1 Bureau of Hydrology, Ministry of Water Resources, 2 Lane TOPKAPI is a physically-based, fully distributed hydrological model with a simple and parsimonious

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

117

In Brief: Flood impact map  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have created an interactive “flood impact map.” The map, available at http://www.floodsmart.gov/noaa, features localized, searchable data about the scope and severity of flood events in recent years. Other forecasting and warning tools include those available at http://www.weather.gov/water and NOAA Weather Radio (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/nwr/).

Showstack, Randy

2010-03-01

118

Mortality from flash floods: a review of national weather service reports, 1969-81.  

PubMed Central

Of all weather-related disasters that occur in the United States, floods are the main cause of death, and most flood-related deaths are attributed to flash floods. Whenever a weather-related disaster involves 30 or more deaths or more than $100 million in property damage, the National Weather Service (NWS) forms a survey team to investigate the disaster and write a report of findings. All NWS survey reports on flash floods issued during 1969-81 were reviewed to determine the mortality resulting from such floods, the effect of warnings on mortality, and the circumstances contributing to death. A total of 1,185 deaths were associated with 32 flash floods, an average of 37 deaths per flash flood. The highest average number of deaths per event was associated with the four flash floods in which dams broke after heavy rains. Although there were 18 flash floods in 1977-81 and only 14 in 1969-76, the number of deaths was 2 1/2 times greater during the earlier period. More than twice as many deaths were associated with flash floods for which the survey team considered the warnings inadequate than with those with warnings considered adequate. Ninety-three percent of the deaths were due to drowning and 42 percent of these drownings were car related. The other drownings occurred in homes, at campsites, or when persons were crossing bridges and streams. The need for monitoring dams during periods of heavy rainfall is highlighted. PMID:6419273

French, J; Ing, R; Von Allmen, S; Wood, R

1983-01-01

119

Evaluation of the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model for Flood Forecasting in a Hawaiian Watershed  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The focus of this study was to assess the performance of the U.S. National Weather Service Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model (SAC-SMA) on the flash flood prone Hanalei watershed, Kauai, Hawaii, using site specific hydrologic data. The model was calibrated and validated using six-years of observed field hydrological data, e.g., stream flow, and spatially distributed rainfall. The ordinary kriging method was used to calculate mean watershed wide hourly precipitation for the six years using data from twenty rain gauges from north shore Kauai including five rain gauges within the watershed. Ranges of the values of a priori SAC-SMA parameters were also estimated based on the site specific soil hydrological properties; these calculated values were well within those reported in literature for different watersheds SAC-SMA was run for one year runs using the calibration and validation data. The performance of model in predicting streamflow using average watershed wide values of the a priori parameters was very poor. SAC-SMA over predicted streamflow throughout the year as compared to observed streamflow data. The upper limit of the lower layer tension water capacity, LZTWM, parameter was higher than those reported in the literature this might be due to the wetter conditions, higher precipitation, in Hanalei watershed (>6400mm) than the other previously studied watersheds (<1600mm). When the upper bound of LZTWM varied between 2500 and 3000 during calibration, SAC-SMA's performance improved to satisfactory and even to good for almost all years based on PBIAS and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients of efficiency. When we used optimized parameter of one year to other years for the validation, the performance of optimized parameter of year 2005 was satisfactory for most of the year when upper bound of LZTWM = 2500 and the optimized parameter of year 2004 was satisfactory for most of the year when upper bound of LZTWM = 3000. The annual precipitation of 2004 was the highest however, that of 2005 was the closest to the mean annual precipitation of the study period (2001-2010). The upper bound of LZTWM increased as a function of precipitation, it was equal to 3000 for the 2004 wet year and 2500 for the 2005 which had an average precipitation. Although we increased the upper bound of LZTWM, the performance of SAC-SMA was not satisfactory in all years for both calibration and validation. The main reason for poor performance is due to the high spatial variation of precipitation across the watershed. Furthermore, studies on other tropical basins will help to generalize these findings.

Awal, R.; Fares, A.; Michaud, J.; Chu, P.; Fares, S.; Rosener, M.; Kevin, K.

2012-12-01

120

Ensemble Statistical Post-Processing of the National Air Quality Forecast Capability: Enhancing Ozone Forecasts in Baltimore, Maryland  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

An ensemble statistical post-processor (ESP) is developed for the National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) to address the unique challenges of forecasting surface ozone in Baltimore, MD. Air quality and meteorological data were collected from the eight monitors that constitute the Baltimore forecast region. These data were used to build the ESP using a moving-block bootstrap, regression tree models, and extreme-value theory. The ESP was evaluated using a 10-fold cross-validation to avoid evaluation with the same data used in the development process. Results indicate that the ESP is conditionally biased, likely due to slight overfitting while training the regression tree models. When viewed from the perspective of a decision-maker, the ESP provides a wealth of additional information previously not available through the NAQFC alone. The user is provided the freedom to tailor the forecast to the decision at hand by using decision-specific probability thresholds that define a forecast for an ozone exceedance. Taking advantage of the ESP, the user not only receives an increase in value over the NAQFC, but also receives value for An ensemble statistical post-processor (ESP) is developed for the National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) to address the unique challenges of forecasting surface ozone in Baltimore, MD. Air quality and meteorological data were collected from the eight monitors that constitute the Baltimore forecast region. These data were used to build the ESP using a moving-block bootstrap, regression tree models, and extreme-value theory. The ESP was evaluated using a 10-fold cross-validation to avoid evaluation with the same data used in the development process. Results indicate that the ESP is conditionally biased, likely due to slight overfitting while training the regression tree models. When viewed from the perspective of a decision-maker, the ESP provides a wealth of additional information previously not available through the NAQFC alone. The user is provided the freedom to tailor the forecast to the decision at hand by using decision-specific probability thresholds that define a forecast for an ozone exceedance. Taking advantage of the ESP, the user not only receives an increase in value over the NAQFC, but also receives value for

Garner, Gregory G.; Thompson, Anne M.

2013-01-01

121

Improvement of watershed flood forecasting by typhoon rainfall climate model with an ANN-based southwest monsoon rainfall enhancement  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

This paper improves the typhoon flood forecasting over a watershed in a mountainous island of Taiwan. In the presence of the stiff topography in Taiwan, the typhoon rainfall is often phased-locked with terrain and the typhoon rainfall in general is best predicted by the typhoon rainfall climate model (TRCM) (Lee et al., 2006). However, the TRCM often underestimates the rainfall amount in cases of slowing moving storms with strong southwest monsoon supply of water vapor flux. We apply an artificial neural network (ANN) based southwest monsoon rainfall enhancement (AME) to improve TRCM rainfall forecasting for the Tsengwen Reservoir watershed in the southwestern Taiwan where maximum typhoon rainfall frequently occurred. Six typhoon cases with significant southwest monsoon water vapor flux are used for the test cases. The precipitations of seven rain gauge stations in the watershed and the southwest monsoon water vapor flux are analyzed to get the spatial distribution of the effective water vapor flux threshold, and the threshold is further used to build the AME model. The results indicate that the flux threshold is related to the topographic lifting of the moist air, with lower threshold in the upstream high altitude stations in the watershed. The lower flux threshold allows a larger rainfall amount with AME. We also incorporated the rainfall prediction with a state space neural network (SSNN) to simulate rainfall-runoff processes. Our improved method is robust and produces better flood predictions of total rainfall and multiple rainfall peaks. The runoff processes in the watershed are improved in terms of coefficient of efficiency, peak discharge, and total volume.

Pan, Tsung-Yi; Yang, Yi-Ting; Kuo, Hung-Chi; Tan, Yih-Chi; Lai, Jihn-Sung; Chang, Tsang-Jung; Lee, Cheng-Shang; Hsu, Kathryn Hua

2013-12-01

122

An integrated hydrological modelling approach for flood forecasting using GIS: An example of Gottleuba Catchment, Saxony, Germany  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hydrological modelling is a powerful tool for hydrologist and engineers involved in the planning and development of integrated approach for the management of water resources. With the recent advent of computational power and the growing availability of spatial data, it is possible to accurately describe watershed characteristics in particularly when determining runoff response to rainfall input. The main objective of this study is to improve the spatial input parameters which were used to generate a precise hydrological modelling tool. For the spatial database creation, high resolution 2 m laser scanning digital elevation model (DEM), soil map, and land use map were used. Rainfall records were transformed into a runoff through hydrological parameterization of the watershed and the river network for rainfall-runoff simulation. The soil conservation services curve number (SCS-CN) method was selected to calculate the rainfall losses as it relates the precipitation losses to the land use and soil type. Additionally, the effect of soil moisture was taken into consideration during modeling phase. Soil moisture was derived using the BROOK90 model for evaporation, soil water, and stream flow simulation. Finally, the developed integrated hydrological model was applied to the test site of the Gottleuba catchment area which covers approximately 250 km2 in southern Pirna, Saxony, Germany. Model runs were carried out using gridded precipitation data for 10 and 30 years return periods. Further, the model was calibrated and optimized against the observed runoff data, which was measured in the studied area during a storm flood event recorded between the 11th and the 13th of August, 2002. The simulation results showed a reasonable match between the simulated and the observed hydrographs. Quantitatively the paper concluded that based on forecasted meteorological data, the model could be used as a tool for flood forecasting system.

Elbialy, Samy; Mahmoud, Ali; Pradhan, Biswajeet; Buchroithner, Manfred

2010-05-01

123

Understanding sources of uncertainty in flash- flood forecasting for semi-arid regions  

Microsoft Academic Search

About one-third of the Earth's land surface is located in arid or semi-arid regions, often in areas suffering severely from the negative impacts of desertification and population pressure. Reliable hydrological forecasts across spatial and temporal scales are crucial in order to achieve water security - protection from excess and lack of water - for people and ecosystems in these areas.

THORSTEN WAGENER; HOSHIN GUPTA; SONI YATHEENDRADAS; DAVID GOODRICH; CARL UNKRICH; MIKE SCHAFFNER

124

IMPROVING NATIONAL AIR QUALITY FORECASTS WITH SATELLITE AEROSOL OBSERVATIONS  

EPA Science Inventory

Air quality forecasts for major US metropolitan areas have been provided to the public through a partnership between the US Environmental Protection Agency and state and local air agencies since 1997. Recent years have witnessed improvement in forecast skill and expansion of fore...

125

Ensemble statistical post-processing of the National Air Quality Forecast Capability: Enhancing ozone forecasts in Baltimore, Maryland  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An ensemble statistical post-processor (ESP) is developed for the National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) to address the unique challenges of forecasting surface ozone in Baltimore, MD. Air quality and meteorological data were collected from the eight monitors that constitute the Baltimore forecast region. These data were used to build the ESP using a moving-block bootstrap, regression tree models, and extreme-value theory. The ESP was evaluated using a 10-fold cross-validation to avoid evaluation with the same data used in the development process. Results indicate that the ESP is conditionally biased, likely due to slight overfitting while training the regression tree models. When viewed from the perspective of a decision-maker, the ESP provides a wealth of additional information previously not available through the NAQFC alone. The user is provided the freedom to tailor the forecast to the decision at hand by using decision-specific probability thresholds that define a forecast for an ozone exceedance. Taking advantage of the ESP, the user not only receives an increase in value over the NAQFC, but also receives value for costly decisions that the NAQFC couldn't provide alone.

Garner, Gregory G.; Thompson, Anne M.

2013-12-01

126

The impact of satellite temperature soundings on the forecasts of a small national meteorological service  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

The impact of introducing satellite temperature sounding data on a numerical weather prediction model of a national weather service is evaluated. A dry five level, primitive equation model which covers most of the Northern Hemisphere, is used for these experiments. Series of parallel forecast runs out to 48 hours are made with three different sets of initial conditions: (1) NOSAT runs, only conventional surface and upper air observations are used; (2) SAT runs, satellite soundings are added to the conventional data over oceanic regions and North Africa; and (3) ALLSAT runs, the conventional upper air observations are replaced by satellite soundings over the entire model domain. The impact on the forecasts is evaluated by three verification methods: the RMS errors in sea level pressure forecasts, systematic errors in sea level pressure forecasts, and errors in subjective forecasts of significant weather elements for a selected portion of the model domain. For the relatively short range of the present forecasts, the major beneficial impacts on the sea level pressure forecasts are found precisely in those areas where the satellite sounding are inserted and where conventional upper air observations are sparse. The RMS and systematic errors are reduced in these regions. The subjective forecasts of significant weather elements are improved with the use of the satellite data. It is found that the ALLSAT forecasts are of a quality comparable to the SAR forecasts.

Wolfson, N.; Thomasell, A.; Alperson, Z.; Brodrick, H.; Chang, J. T.; Gruber, A.; Ohring, G.

1984-01-01

127

FLEXIBLE PROCESS-BASED HYDROLOGICAL MODELLING FRAMEWORK FOR FLOOD FORECASTING – MIKE SHE  

Microsoft Academic Search

Abstract New developments ,of grid-based hydrological modelling ,have been spurred by increasing access to meteorological modelling, radar and satellite remote sensing. However, state of the art operational hydrological forecasting models ,are usually sub-catchment-based conceptual orempirical models, using to a greater or lesser degree the physics of rainfall-runoff processes. By contrast, state-of-the-art hydrological modelling is represented by fully distributed physically-based modelling

W. Szalinska

128

Use of Performance Metrics to Forecast Success in the National Hockey League  

E-print Network

- cess in the National Hockey League. Our approach combines traditional statistics, such as goals and lack of events (goals). This paper describes a National Hockey League (NHL) Case Study in which weUse of Performance Metrics to Forecast Success in the National Hockey League Joshua Weissbock

Inkpen, Diana

129

Meteorological and Hydrogeological Warning Thresholds in the operational bulletins of the Albanian National Centre for Forecast and Monitoring of Natural Risks  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Most operational meteo-hydrological warning system uses fixed rainfall thresholds on given durations to switch alerting bulletins. This may be a too rough approximation in regions with strong climate gradient like Albanian, especially when this bulletins need to include the evaluation of potential ground effect like floods. In the framework of the International cooperation between the Civil Protection of Italy and Albania, the National Centre for Forecast and Monitoring of Natural Risks has been established at the Institute of Geosciences, Energy, Water and Environment (IGEWE). The Centre is supported by expertise of CIMA Research Foundation - International Centre on Environmental Monitoring. The Centre issues (every morning) on a daily basis a Meteorological Warning Bulletin (the first bulletin was issued quite recently on the 20th of December 2011). It is mostly dedicated to the precipitation forecast, the most important hazard in Albania. It covers 36 hours, starting for the noon of the current day till the end of the next day. It offers a detailed precipitation forecast for each prefecture of Albania (12 in total). The prefectures that have to do with the most problematic river (Drini) are divided in a few warning areas each homogenous with respect to climatologic and hydrologic conditions. The meteo-warning is synthetically evaluated for each prefecture; it contains the assessment of the experts about the severity of the forecasted storm in terms of average precipitations, and maximum and, possible storms (if rainfall intensity exceed 90 mm in 3 hours). Reference meteorological model is COSMO LAMI7 (managed by ARPA Bologna, Italy), its spatial resolution is 7 km and temporal resolution for the outputs is 3 hours. Also ECMWF model is available. After the pure meteorological evaluation, possible adverse ground effects are assessed with a second level of variable rainfall thresholds, whose estimated recurrence interval is compared to soil moisture dependent values. The soil moisture conditions are computed by the operational probabilistic forecasting model Flood Proofs, implemented by CIMA for the Drin and lake of Shkodra basins. Flood Proof is also used to forecast river discharge at the mains hydraulic cross-section of the basins; the third level of assessment is based on discharge thresholds. All the meteorological and hydrological forecast models are available in the open source web-based platform DEWETRA (DEWETRA has been developed by CIMA on behalf of the Italian department of Civil Protection who uses it routinely for its activities of forecast, monitor and surveillance of Natural Risks) Meteo-Warning classification is chosen to be similar to MeteoAlarm; in the future the Center wish to participate in this European activity. Hydrological warnings are expressed in terms of risk scenarios.

Marku, M.; Mustaqi, V.; Abazi, E.; Zaimi, K.; Vako, E.; Gjonaj, M.; Hoxhaj, F.; Deda, M.; Fiori, E.; Massabò, M.; Castelli, F.

2012-04-01

130

Assimilation of brightness temperature observations into a process-based hydrological model for flood forecasting applications  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The aim of this project, sponsored by the Dutch agency for aerospace programmes, is to demonstrate that assimilation of soil moisture data obtained from AMSR-E remotely sensed brightness temperature measurements leads to a reduction of the uncertainty in the stream flow predictions. The method is applied to the 60000 km2 Mosel sub-basin of the river Rhine. Data streams are provided from ground-based telemetric observation networks and from AMSR-E remotely sensed brightness temperature measurements. The satellite soil moisture observations are assimilated into the physcially based representative elementary watershed (REW) model of the Mosel by means of an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) over a historical simulation time window. The model is then driven in forecast mode with deterministic medium-range weather prediction products. The aim is to demonstrate that the predictive uncertainty on streamflow forecasts due to model deficiencies and errors in the observations can be effectively limited through exploitation of additional information about the system. Remotely sensed brightness temperature observations will be compared with the results of a process-based hydrological modeling platform in which spatial distribution of surface soil moisture and its effect on hydrological response signals can be adequately taken into consideration.

Weerts, A.; Reggiani, P.; Kwadijk, J.; de Jeu, R.

2006-12-01

131

A statistical forecast model for Tropical Cyclone Rainfall and flood events for the Hudson River  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) lead to potentially severe coastal flooding through wind surge and also through rainfall-runoff processes. There is growing interest in modeling these processes simultaneously. Here, a statistical approach that can facilitate this process is presented with an application to the Hudson River Basin that is associated with the New York City metropolitan area. Three submodels are used in sequence. The first submodel is a stochastic model of the complete life cycle of North Atlantic (NA) tropical cyclones developed by Hall and Yonekura (2011). It uses archived data of TCs throughout the North Atlantic to estimate landfall rates at high geographic resolution as a function of the ENSO state and of sea surface temperature (SST). The second submodel translates the attributes of a tropical cyclone simulated by the first model to rainfall intensity at selected stations within the watershed of Hudson River. Two different approaches are used and compared: artificial neural network (ANN) and k-nearest neighbor (KNN). Finally, the third submodel transforms, once again, by using an ANN approach and KNN, the rainfall intensities, calculated for the ensemble of the stations, to the streamflows at specific points of the tributaries of the Hudson River. These streamflows are to be used as inputs in a hydrodynamic model that includes storm surge surge dynamics for the simulation of coastal flooding along the Hudson River. Calibration and validation of the model is carried out by using, selected tropical cyclone data since 1950, and hourly station rainfall and streamflow recorded for such extreme events. Four stream gauges (Troy dam, Mohawk River at Cohoes, Mohawk River diversion at Crescent Dam, Hudson River above lock one nr Waterford), a gauge from a tributary in the lower Hudson River, and over 20 rain gauges are used. The performance of the proposed model as tool for storm events is then analyzed and discussed.

Cioffi, Francesco; Conticello, Federico; Hall, Thimoty; Lall, Upmanu; Orton, Philip

2014-05-01

132

Forecasting Flooding in the Brahmaputra and Ganges Delta of Bangladesh on Short (1-10 days), Medium (20-30 days) and Seasonal Time Scales (1-6 months)  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Following the devastating flood years of 1998 during which 60% of Bangladesh was under water for a period of 3 months, the Climate Forecast Applications in Bangladesh (CFAB) project was formed with funding by USAID and NSF which eventually resulted in a joint project with the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), the Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre (ADPC) and the Bangladesh Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre. The project was organized and developed through the Georgia Institute of Technology. The aim of CFAB was to develop innovative methods of extending the warning of flooding in Bangladesh noting that there was a unique problem: India provided no upstream discharge data to Bangladesh so that before CFAB the maximum lead time of a forecast was that given by measuring river discharge at the India-Bangladesh border: no lead-time at the border and 2 days in the southern parts of the country. Given that the Brahmaputra and Ganges catchment areas had to be regarded as essentially unguaged, it was clear that innovative techniques had to be developed. On of the basic criterion was that the system should provide probabilistic forecasts in order for the Bangladeshis to assess risk. A three-tier system was developed to allow strategic and tactical decisions to be made for agricultural purposes and disaster mitigation: seasonal (1-6 months: strategic), medium range (20-30 days: strategic/tactical) and short range (1-10 days: tactical). The system that has been developed brings together for the first time operational meteorological forecasts (ensemble forecasts from ECMWF), with satellite and discharge data and a suite of hydrological models. In addition, with ADPC and FFWC we have developed an in-country forecast dispersion system that allows a rapid dissemination. The system has proven to be rather successful, especially in the short range. The flooding events of 2004 were forecast with all forecasting tiers at the respective lead time. In particular, the short-term forecasts picked 10 days ahead of time the double flooding peak. In 2007, the system forecast the commencement and retreat of the July- August floods allowing for the first time for the Bangladesh Disaster Management Committee to act proactively rather than reactively. As a result, many thousands of villagers were evacuated out of harms way. The forecasting system will be discussed in some detail together with examples of forecasts made during the last 5 years. Most importantly, we see the method we have developed as a template for flood forecasting in the developing world where modern technology from the United States and Europe interfaces, interacts and supports local infrastructure.

Webster, P. J.; Hoyos, C. D.; Hopson, T. M.; Chang, H.; Jian, J.

2007-12-01

133

A national econometric forecasting model of the dental sector.  

PubMed Central

The Econometric Model of the the Dental Sector forecasts a broad range of dental sector variables, including dental care prices; the amount of care produced and consumed; employment of hygienists, dental assistants, and clericals; hours worked by dentists; dental incomes; and number of dentists. These forecasts are based upon values specified by the user for the various factors which help determine the supply an demand for dental care, such as the size of the population, per capita income, the proportion of the population covered by private dental insurance, the cost of hiring clericals and dental assistants, and relevant government policies. In a test of its reliability, the model forecast dental sector behavior quite accurately for the period 1971 through 1977. PMID:7461974

Feldstein, P J; Roehrig, C S

1980-01-01

134

NFI Forecasts Methodology NFI Forecasts Methodology  

E-print Network

NFI Forecasts Methodology NFI Forecasts Methodology Overview Issued by: National Forest Inventory.brewer@forestry.gsi.gov.uk Website: www.forestry.gov.uk/inventory 1 NFI Softwood Forecasts Methodology Overview #12;NFI Forecasts Methodology Contents Contents

135

December 2011 NATIONAL HARMFUL ALGAL BLOOM (HAB) FORECAST SYSTEM  

E-print Network

). · Weekly model prediction and model/observation comparison issued beginning in April or sooner if there dynamics data · Remote sensing sea surface temperature data (NOAA CoastWatch) · In situ data (NERACOOS, Eco forecast products: · In situ optical data from moored/motion sensors (ESP data reported by WHOI) · Public

136

Avalanche Forecasting for Transportation Corridor and Backcountry in Glacier National Park (BC, Canada)  

E-print Network

Avalanche Forecasting for Transportation Corridor and Backcountry in Glacier National Park (BC, 2500 University Drive NW Calgary AB T2N 1N4, Canada David Skjonsberg Avalanche Control, Mt. Revelstoke and Glacier National Parks, PO Box 350 Revelstoke BC V0E 2S0, Canada ABSTRACT. The Avalanche Control Section

Smith, Dan

137

Bulletin of Forest Fire risk in Albania- The experience of the Albania National Centre for forecast and Monitoring of Natural Risks  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In the territory of Albania usually every year around 1000 ha are affected by forest fires, from which about 500 ha are completely destroyed. The number of forest fires (nf), with the burning surface (bs) in years has been like this: during the years 1988-1998: nf / bs = 2.19, 1998-2001: nf / bs = 5.66, year 2002 -2005: nf / bs = 8.2, and during the years 2005-2006: nf / bs = 11.9, while economic losses in a year by forest fires is about 2 million of Euro. The increase in years of these figures and the last floods which happened in the last two years in Shkoder, led to an international cooperation, that between the Italian Civil Protection Department and the Albania General Directorate of Civil Emergency. The focus of this cooperation was the building capacity of the Albanian National System of Civil Protection in forecasting, monitoring and prevention forest fires and floods risks. As a result of this collaboration the "National Center for the Forecast and Monitoring of Natural Risks", was set up at the Institute of Geosciences, Energy, Water and Environment. The Center is the first of its kind in Albania. The mission of the Center is the prediction and monitoring of the forest fire and flood risk in the Albanian territory, as a tools for risk reduction and mitigation. The first step to achieve this strategy was the implementation of the forest fires risk forecast model "RISICO". RISICO was adapted for whole Albania territory by CIMA Research Foundation. The Center, in the summer season, issues a daily bulletin. The bulletin reports the potential risk scenarios related with the ignition and propagation of fires in Albania. The bulletin is broadcasted through email or fax within 12.00 AM of each working day. It highlights where and when severe risk conditions may occur within the next 48 hours

Berdufi, I.; Jaupaj, O.; Marku, M.; Deda, M.; Fiori, E.; D'Andrea, M.; Biondi, G.; Fioruci, P.; Massabò, M.; Zorba, P.; Gjonaj, M.

2012-04-01

138

Forecasting  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This site is a joint effort of NOAA Research and the College of Education at the University of South Alabama. The goal of the site is to provide middle school science students and teachers with research and investigation experiences using on-line resources. In this unit students look at the science of weather forecasting as a science by exploring cloud, temperatures, and air pressure data and information. Students apply this information to interpret and relate meteorological maps to each other. Parts of the unit include gathering information from other websites, applying the data gathered, and performing enrichment exercises. This site contains a downloadable teachers guide, student guide, and all activity sheets to make the unit complete.

139

Flood inundation simulation in Ajoy River using MIKE-FLOOD  

Microsoft Academic Search

Control and risk management of floods using non-structural measures such as flood forecasting and flood warning, flood hazard mapping and flood risk zoning are quite effective. Of these, preparation of flood hazard maps and flood plain zoning require flood inundation simulation, for which various numerical models are available, for example, one-dimensional (1D), two-dimensional (2D) and 1D-2D-coupled models. In the present

Prashant Kadam; Dhrubajyoti Sen

2012-01-01

140

Analysis of Flood Hazards for the Materials and Fuels Complex at the Idaho National Laboratory Site  

SciTech Connect

Researchers at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory conducted a flood hazard analysis for the Materials and Fuels Complex (MFC) site located at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) site in southeastern Idaho. The general approach for the analysis was to determine the maximum water elevation levels associated with the design-basis flood (DBFL) and compare them to the floor elevations at critical building locations. Two DBFLs for the MFC site were developed using different precipitation inputs: probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and 10,000 year recurrence interval precipitation. Both precipitation inputs were used to drive a watershed runoff model for the surrounding upland basins and the MFC site. Outflows modeled with the Hydrologic Engineering Centers Hydrologic Modeling System were input to the Hydrologic Engineering Centers River Analysis System hydrodynamic flood routing model.

Skaggs, Richard; Breithaupt, Stephen A.; Waichler, Scott R.; Kim, Taeyun; Ward, Duane L.

2010-11-01

141

National scale high-resolution quantification of fluvial flood risk in Great Britain  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Britain has experienced repeated episodes of widespread river flooding in recent years, with considerable implications for insurance companies. Probabilistic models enable these companies to robustly quantify flood risk. Because flood events are often very localised, the models would ideally incorporate high-resolution flood data, but although such data are increasingly available at a national scale their inclusion has, to date, been a daunting 'big data' challenge. Here, we discuss some of the scientific and technological advancements we have made to develop a detailed probabilistic model which is underpinned by high-resolution flood data. Return period river flows were first estimated at a large number of locations along the national river network using the Flood Estimation Handbook approach. These flows were then routed across a high-resolution Digital Terrain Model using our 2D hydraulic model, JFlow, to produce 5m resolution river flood hazard maps for the entire county. Our probabilistic model integrates these 'design' hazard data, a state-of-the-art stochastic event set containing tens of thousands of synthetic extreme flow events, a 'built environment' database and 'vulnerability functions' (which relate water depth and damage) to determine the probability distribution of annual river flood losses to insured properties. Stochastic events were carefully assigned to 'years' in the simulation period, with each year being a plausible version of 'next year'. The flood footprint associated with each simulated event was defined, and event-by-event total damage and insured loss calculated. Precise property locations could be provided as an input, and all calculations were carried out on an extremely fine grid to minimise uncertainties due to data aggregation. Being comprised of large data tables, models of this nature are computationally demanding; to enable full analyses on reasonable timescales, our model was re-coded to run on IBM's PureData for Analytics appliance. The model will also be made available in the Oasis Loss Modelling Framework. Uncertainty in the results stems from numerous sources. Two are particularly important: i) uncertainty in the magnitude of long return period river flows, and ii) uncertainty in the damage expected given flooding of a known depth. Whilst the former could not be reduced without access to longer records, the latter could be reduced somewhat by further empirical studies.

Thornton, James; Thomson, Tina; Liu, Ye; Chaney, Sarah; Dunning, Paul; Hutchings, Stephen; Taylor, Peter; Pickering, Cathy

2014-05-01

142

A grid-based distributed flood forecasting model for use with weather radar data: Part 1. Formulation  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A practical methodology for distributed rainfall-runoff modelling using grid square weather radar data is developed for use in real-time flood forecasting. The model, called the Grid Model, is configured so as to share the same grid as used by the weather radar, thereby exploiting the distributed rainfall estimates to the full. Each grid square in the catchment is conceptualised as a storage which receives water as precipitation and generates water by overflow and drainage. This water is routed across the catchment using isochrone pathways. These are derived from a digital terrain model assuming two fixed velocities of travel for land and river pathways which are regarded as model parameters to be optimised. Translation of water between isochrones is achieved using a discrete kinematic routing procedure, parameterised through a single dimensionless wave speed parameter, which advects the water and incorporates diffusion effects through the discrete space-time formulation. The basic model routes overflow and drainage separately through a parallel system of kinematic routing reaches, characterised by different wave speeds but using the same isochrone-based space discretisation; these represent fast and slow pathways to the basin outlet, respectively. A variant allows the slow pathway to have separate isochrones calculated using Darcy velocities controlled by the hydraulic gradient as estimated by the local gradient of the terrain. Runoff production within a grid square is controlled by its absorption capacity which is parameterised through a simple linkage function to the mean gradient in the square, as calculated from digital terrain data. This allows absorption capacity to be specified differently for every grid square in the catchment through the use of only two regional parameters and a DTM measurement of mean gradient for each square. An extension of this basic idea to consider the distribution of gradient within the square leads analytically to a Pareto distribution of absorption capacity, given a power distribution of gradient within the square. The probability-distributed model theory (Moore, 1985) can then be used directly to obtain the integrated runoff production for the square for routing to the catchment outlet. justification for the simple linkage function is in part sought through consideration of variants on the basic model where (i) runoff production is based on a topographic index control on saturation and (ii) absorption capacity is related to the Integrated Air Capacity of the soil, as obtained from soil survey. An impervious area fraction is also introduced based on the use of Landsat classified urban areas. The Grid Model and its variants are assessed in Part 2 (Bell and Moore, 1998), first as simulation models and then as forecasting models, following the development of updating procedures to accommodate recent observations of flow so as to improve forecast performance in a real-time context.

Bell, V. A.; Moore, R. J.

143

THE NOAA - EPA NATIONAL AIR QUALITY FORECASTING SYSTEM  

EPA Science Inventory

Building upon decades of collaboration in air pollution meteorology research, in 2003 the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) signed formal partnership agreements to develop and implement an operationa...

144

Flood characteristics for the New River in the New River Gorge National River, West Virginia  

USGS Publications Warehouse

The frequency and magnitude of flooding of the New River in the New River Gorge National River was studied. A steady-state, one-dimensional flow model was applied to the study reach. Rating curves, cross sections, and Manning's roughness coefficients that were used are presented in this report. Manning's roughness coefficients were evaluated by comparing computed elevations (from application of the steady-state, one-dimensional flow model) to rated elevations at U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging stations and miscellaneous-rating sites. Manning's roughness coefficients ranged from 0.030 to 0.075 and varied with hydraulic depth. The 2-, 25-, and 100-year flood discharges were esti- mated on the basis of information from flood- insurance studies of Summers County, Fayette County, and the city of Hinton, and flood-frequency analysis of discharge records for the USGS streamflow-gaging stations at Hinton and Thurmond. The 100-year discharge ranged from 107,000 cubic feet per second at Hinton to 150,000 cubic feet per second at Fayette.

Wiley, J.B.; Cunningham, M.K.

1994-01-01

145

Configuring the HYSPLIT Model for National Weather Service Forecast Office and Spaceflight Meteorology Group Applications  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) is responsible for providing meteorological support to state and county emergency management agencies across East Central Florida in the event of incidents involving the significant release of harmful chemicals, radiation, and smoke from fires and/or toxic plumes into the atmosphere. NWS MLB uses the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model to provide trajectory, concentration, and deposition guidance during such events. Accurate and timely guidance is critical for decision makers charged with protecting the health and well-being of populations at risk. Information that can describe the geographic extent of areas possibly affected by a hazardous release, as well as to indicate locations of primary concern, offer better opportunity for prompt and decisive action. In addition, forecasters at the NWS Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have expressed interest in using the HYSPLIT model to assist with Weather Flight Rules during Space Shuttle landing operations. In particular, SMG would provide low and mid-level HYSPLIT trajectory forecasts for cumulus clouds associated with smoke plumes, and high-level trajectory forecasts for thunderstorm anvils. Another potential benefit for both NWS MLB and SMG is using the HYSPLIT model concentration and deposition guidance in fog situations.

Dreher, Joseph; Blottman, Peter F.; Sharp, David W.; Hoeth, Brian; Van Speybroeck, Kurt

2009-01-01

146

Flooding and Flood Risks  

MedlinePLUS

... to serious flooding. Learn More Understanding flood maps FEMA conducts a Flood Insurance Study and uses this ... Flood risk can and does change over time. FEMA frequently updates flood hazard maps. Learn More Flood ...

147

Potential hazards from flood in part of the Chalone Creek and Bear Valley drainage basins, Pinnacles National Monument, California  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Areas of Chalone Creek and Bear Valley drainage basins in Pinnacles National Monument, California, are subject to frontal storms that can cause major flooding from November to April in areas designated for public use. To enhance visitor safety and to protect cultural and natural resources, the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the National Park Service studied flood-hazard potentials within the boundaries of the Pinnacles National Monument. This study area extends from about a quarter of a mile north of Chalone Creek Campground to the mouth of Bear Valley and from the east monument entrance to Chalone Creek. Historical data of precipitation and floodflow within the monument area are sparse to nonexistent, therefore, U.S. Soil Conservation Service unit-hydrograph procedures were used to determine the magnitude of a 100-year flood. Because of a lack of specific storm-rainfall data, a simulated storm was applied to the basins using a digital-computer model developed by the Soil Conservation Service. A graphical relation was used to define the regionally based maximum flood for Chalone Creek and Bear Valley. Water-surface elevations and inundation areas were determined using a conventional step-backwater program. Flood-zone boundaries were derived from the computed water-surface elevations. The 100-year flood plain for both streams would be inundated at all points by the regional maximum flood. Most of the buildings and proposed building sites in the monument area are above the elevation of the 100-year flood, except the proposed building sites near the horse corral and the east monument entrance. The 100-year flood may cause reverse flow through a 12-inch culvert embedded in the embankment of Old Pinnacles Campground Road in the center of Chalone Creek Campground. The likelihood of this occurring is dependant upon the amount of aggradation that occurs upstream; therefore, the campground area also is considered to be within the 100-year flood zone.

Meyer, Robert W.

1995-01-01

148

NatioNal aNd Global Forecasts West VirGiNia ProFiles aNd Forecasts  

E-print Network

Population 2 GlOBAl OUTlOOk 3 Current Trends 3 Forecast 6 UNITED STATES OUTlOOk 9 Global and United States Forecast Risk 12 WEST VIRGINIA PROFIlE 12 Overview 12 Population 12 West Virginia Gross State Product (GSP) 14 Personal Income 14 labor Force, Employment, and Wages 14 WEST VIRGINIA OUTlOOk 17 Economic Growth

Mohaghegh, Shahab

149

Flooding on the Mighty Mississippi  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This week, floodwaters of the Mississippi River crested, leading several counties in Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois, and Wisconsin to declare states of emergency. Floodwaters have reached over 22 feet in Davenport Iowa, closing in on the 1993 record water level. Davenport is perhaps particularly hard hit because it is not equipped with concrete levees, as it relies heavily on its riverfront as a tourist attraction, and city residents feel that levees would create an unsightly barrier. Also, many hydrology experts will agree that levees might not be the wisest choice for flood management because they intensify the flooding downriver. This Week's In the News features Websites dealing with Mississippi River flood data, flood management, and general water resources.Readers who wish to catch up on the situation should browse the first few news sites listed above. The first (1), coming straight from the flood frontlines, is from the Minneapolis Star Tribune giving general news about the Mississippi flood. The next two sites cover the situation in Davenport, IA and the controversy over constructing flood walls. The second site (2) is an article from the Los Angeles Times reviewing the controversy over building flood barriers in Davenport. It mentions how other Iowa towns built levees after the disastrous floods of 1965 while Davenport did not. The third site (3) is a special section of Davenport's Quad City Times entitled Flood 2001. Flood 2001 holds a small archive of recent articles about the flood from the Quad City Times along with other regional papers, hosts an online poll about installing levees, and provides video clips (RealPlayer) and still photos of the flood. It also gives shots from a "floodcam" poised along the banks of the Mississippi. The next few resources house hydrologic data. The US Geological Survey (USGS) posts real-time water data online (4). The plain-text data from all states can be accessed via a clickable map or from lists by state or by station. The National Weather Service's Quad Cities division (the "quad cities" of Davenport, Bettendorf, Moline, and Rock Island straddle the Mississippi River on the Illinois-Iowa border) provides graphs of flood stages of rivers and streams (selected using a clickable map) and real-time weather conditions, forecasts, and flood warnings online (5). Readers will probably encounter the term "100 Year Flood" while reading flood news and stage data. If you are unfamiliar with this term, which refers to the estimated probability that a flood event has a one-in-one hundred chance of occurrence in any given year, this site (7) from an environmental consulting firm gives a nice explanation of the term and its uses. Another educational site comes from the International Rivers Network. About Rivers and Dams (8), gives an overview of the function of dams (for flood control, power generation, water collection) and presents the environmental case against damming of rivers. Other sites related to the environmental impacts of flood control include Cadillac Desert (9), a supplement to the award-winning PBS documentary series on water and the control of nature, and the Powell Consortium (10), a network of research institutions dealing with water management in the arid American West. Another neat site from PBS Online is the supplement to the film "American Experience: Fatal Flood" (11), documenting the 1927 flooding of the Mississippi and its impacts on residents of Greenville, MS. The Fatal Flood site features video clips and interviews with survivors of the 1927 flood.

2001-01-01

150

European Flood Awareness System - now operational  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The European Commission's Communication "Towards a Stronger European Union Disaster Response" adopted and endorsed by the Council in 2010, underpins the importance of strengthening concerted actions for natural disasters including floods, which are amongst the costliest natural disasters in the EU. The European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) contributes in the case of major flood events. to better protection of the European Citizen, the environment, property and cultural heritage. The disastrous floods in Elbe and Danube rivers in 2002 confronted the European Commission with non-coherent flood warning information from different sources and of variable quality, complicating planning and organisation of aid. Thus, the Commission initiated the development of a European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) which is now going operational. EFAS has been developed and tested at the Joint Research Centre, the Commission's in house science service, in close collaboration with the National hydrological and meteorological services, European Civil Protection through the Monitoring and Information Centre (MIC) and other research institutes. EFAS provides Pan-European overview maps of flood probabilities up to 10 days in advance as well as detailed forecasts at stations where the National services are providing real time data. More than 30 hydrological services and civil protection services in Europe are part of the EFAS network. Since 2011, EFAS is part of the COPERNICUS Emergency Management Service, (EMS) and is now an operational service since 2012. The Operational EFAS is being executed by several consortia dealing with different operational aspects: • EFAS Hydrological data collection centre —REDIAM and ELIMCO- will be collecting historic and realtime discharge and water levels data in support to EFAS • EFAS Meteorological data collection centre —outsourced but running onsite of JRC Ispra. Will be collecting historic and realtime meteorological data in support to EFAS • EFAS Computational centre - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts - will be running the forecasts, post-processing and operating the EFAS-Information System platform • EFAS Dissemination centre—Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute and Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst (the Netherlands)—analyse the results on a daily basis, assess the situation, and disseminate information to the EFAS partners The European Commission is responsible for contract management. The Joint Research Centre further provides support for EFAS through research and development. Aims of EFAS operational • added value early flood forecasting products to hydrological services • unique overview products of ongoing and forecast floods in Europe more than 3 days in advance • create a European network of operational hydrological services

Alionte Eklund, Cristina.; Hazlinger, Michal; Sprokkereef, Eric; Garcia Padilla, Mercedes; Garcia, Rafael J.; Thielen, Jutta; Salamon, Peter; Pappenberger, Florian

2013-04-01

151

RIVER NILE FLOOD FORECASTING AND ITS EFFECT ON NATIONAL PROJECTS IMPLEMENTATION  

Microsoft Academic Search

Since long time in the history, Egyptian civilizati on has depended on the live-giving waters of the River Nile. It is recognized as the l ongest river in the world. It gets its water from Lake Victoria and Lake Albert in central Africa through the White Nile and from Lake Tana in Ethiopia through the Blue Nile. Over the last

Nahla Sadek

152

Table of Contents Page 2National High Magnetic Field Laboratory and Its Forecasted Impact on the Florida Economy  

E-print Network

Impact on the Florida Economy History and Evaluation of the Economic Impact of the Magnet Lab Forecasted Impact on the Florida Economy The National Science Foundation (NSF) awarded the National High generated by Magnet Lab activities across the broader statewide economy. Since 1990, the Magnet Lab has

Weston, Ken

153

Configuring the HYSPLIT Model for National Weather Service Forecast Office and Spaceflight Meteorology Group Applications  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

For expedience in delivering dispersion guidance in the diversity of operational situations, National Weather Service Melbourne (MLB) and Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) are becoming increasingly reliant on the PC-based version of the HYSPLIT model run through a graphical user interface (GUI). While the GUI offers unique advantages when compared to traditional methods, it is difficult for forecasters to run and manage in an operational environment. To alleviate the difficulty in providing scheduled real-time trajectory and concentration guidance, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) configured a Linux version of the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) (HYSPLIT) model that ingests the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) guidance, such as the North American Mesoscale (NAM) and the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) models. The AMU configured the HYSPLIT system to automatically download the NCEP model products, convert the meteorological grids into HYSPLIT binary format, run the model from several pre-selected latitude/longitude sites, and post-process the data to create output graphics. In addition, the AMU configured several software programs to convert local Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model output into HYSPLIT format.

Dreher, Joseph G.

2009-01-01

154

Flash Flood Nowcasting in an Urban Watershed  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flash floods occur when particular meteorological events are combined with certain hydrologic conditions. Several approaches to nowcast flash floods are being developed,> However, predictions of the magnitude and timing of flash flood events is a major challenge. Nowcasts of convective storm events need to be linked with robust hydrologic modeling and analysis in order to produce useful flash flood predictions in terms of timing, and the spatial and temporal distribution of the runoff. Advances in radar-rainfall estimation and two-dimensional physically based runoff modeling offer tools to improve flash flooding forecasting and to reduce the potential for loss of life and property damage in urban catchments. The ability to model extreme hydrologic events in detail was demonstrated using the physically based distributed-parameter hydrologic model GSSHA (Downer and Ogden, 2002) on an urban watershed in Denver, Colorado (Sharif et al., 2002). The study addressed the necessary detail in urban topography and drainage characteristics needed for accurate simulations of urban flood events. With this kind of detailed hydrologic model, accurate short-range meteorological nowcasts (30 60 minutes) would prove useful. Such a nowcast is available from the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s (NCAR) Autonowcaster, a data fusion system that combines several predictor fields with membership functions and weighting schemes to produce automated time and place specific nowcasts of convective rainfall. Predictor fields are derived from characteristics of boundary layer convergence regions, storm characteristics, and dynamic and kinematic attributes of the boundary layer. Simple extrapolations are also used as benchmark nowcasts. The GSSHA model was coupled with the Autonowcaster to produce distributed, physics-based hydrologic predictions in the urban setting. Flash flood predictions of the coupled system are compared to predictions computed using traditional approaches and lumped hydrologic models. This study highlights both the meteorological and hydrologic aspects of the flash flood problem in an effort to develop a real-time flash flood forecasting system.

Sharif, H.; Yates, D.; Roberts, R.; Brandes, E.

2003-04-01

155

Department of Energy award DE-SC0004164 Climate and National Security: Securing Better Forecasts  

SciTech Connect

The Climate and National Security: Securing Better Forecasts symposium was attended by senior policy makers and distinguished scientists. The juxtaposition of these communities was creative and fruitful. They acknowledged they were speaking past each other. Scientists were urged to tell policy makers about even improbable outcomes while articulating clearly the uncertainties around the outcomes. As one policy maker put it, we are accustomed to making these types of decisions. These points were captured clearly in an article that appeared on the New York Times website and can be found with other conference materials most easily on our website, www.scripps.ucsd.edu/cens/. The symposium, generously supported by the NOAA/JIMO, benefitted the public by promoting scientifically informed decision making and by the transmission of objective information regarding climate change and national security.

Reno Harnish

2011-08-16

156

Probabilistic forecasts for Decision Support at the North Central River Forecast Center  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The North Central River Forecast Center (NCRFC) of the US National Weather Service has the responsibility for issuing river forecasts at 426 points over an area of nearly 890,000 km2, covering the Upper Mississippi river basin, the US watersheds flowing to lakes Superior, Huron and Michigan, and rivers flowing from the US to the Hudson Bay in Canada. The NCRFC issues probabilistic outlook forecasts at all its forecast points starting on December. While focused primarily on the risks associated with flooding during the spring snow melt down, the RFC frequently issues probabilistic forecasts to deal with water resources operations during drought times. This presentation will focus on probabilistic forecasts issued to assess flooding risk at Red River of the North , to support navigation operations on the Mississippi river during drought conditions, and on support of reservoir operations for hydropower generation and recreation. The presentation will discuss the improvements over the current practice that will be possible to achieve once the NWS Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasting System is put into operations later this year.

Restrepo, Pedro; Buan, Steven; Connelly, Brian; DeWeese, Michael; Diamond, Laura; Ellis, Larry; Goering, Dustin; Holz, Andrea; Husaby, James; Merrigan, Douglas; Palmer, Justin; Pokorny, Daniel; Reckel, Holly; Sites, William; Stockhaus, Scott; Thornburg, Jonathon; Wavrin, Robert.; Ziemer, Mark

2013-04-01

157

Revisions Recommended to Bulletin 17B - US National Flood Frequency Guidelines  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Work Group (HFAWG) has synthesized recent research and completed its own studies to support proposed revisions to the current the US national flood frequency guidelines (Bulletin 17B). Bulletin 17 was originally issued in 1976; Bulletin 17B, the last revision, was published in 1982, over 30 years ago. To reflect advances that have occurred since 1982, the HFAWG has proposed revisions in four main areas: (1) use of historical information; (2) the motivation for low outlier identification and their statistical definition and treatment; (3) procedures for estimating generalized/regional skew; and (4) procedures for estimating confidence intervals for estimated quantiles. We present overviews of the HFAWG process and technical studies that led us to these revisions. The focus is on the use of the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA) with the log-Pearson Type III distribution. A new Multiple Grubbs-Beck low outlier test and improved EMA confidence intervals are important parts of the revision.

England, J. F.; Cohn, T. A.; Faber, B. A.; Stedinger, J. R.; Thomas, W. O.; Mason, R. R.

2013-12-01

158

Flooding and Schools  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

According to the Federal Emergency Management Agency, flooding is the nation's most common natural disaster. Some floods develop slowly during an extended period of rain or in a warming trend following a heavy snow. Flash floods can occur quickly, without any visible sign of rain. Catastrophic floods are associated with burst dams and levees,…

National Clearinghouse for Educational Facilities, 2011

2011-01-01

159

On the identification of flood prone areas from national scale territorial information: the case study of Italy  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The magnitude of recent flood events (e.g., Mississippi, 1993; Elba and Danube, 2002; Iowa and Midwest US, 2008) in terms of their spatial extent and economic impact calls for enhanced descriptions of flood risk scenarios. An evaluation of flood risk can be obtained through a lasting effort aimed at the collection of all the elements that contribute to risk definition: identification of flood prone areas, associated hazard levels, exposed values and vulnerabilities. This framework would benefit from a preliminary ranking able to identify those areas in which the hazard, the exposed values, or both are significant. This first risk evaluation has the indubitable advantage of using widely available information and could guide the risk evaluation process by defining a prioritization of river segments to be analyzed. In the present work a risk-ranking model, originally intended for insurance purposes, is presented. The model is based on the combination of information extracted from multiple catalogues, representing either physical aspects related to the flooding processes or economic and trading information, mainly related to exposed values and vulnerabilities. In this framework, digital terrain elevation and drainage network models are used to derive flood susceptibility, while data on the geographic location of population, industries, public services, infrastructures and land use are used as proxies of exposed values and vulnerability. To enhance the information content of the data, the model operates at both the national and the local scale of analysis. An application to the Italian territory shows that is possible to identify areas that, in resource-limited conditions, should be first selected for detailed studies. Results are finally compared against detailed studies provided by Basin Authorities, where available, and against the historical flood events catalogue "Aree Vulnerate Italiane" (AVI, http://avi.gndci.cnr.it/), produced by the Italian National Research Council.

Taramasso, A. C.; Roth, G.; Rudari, R.; Lomazzi, M.; Ghizzoni, T.

2009-12-01

160

Verification of Experimental Short-Term Streamflow Ensemble Forecasts Produced by the U.S. National Weather Service  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

As challenges in water resources management and risk mitigation continue to increase, the Office of Hydrologic Development of NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS), in collaboration with the NWS River Forecast Centers, has been actively developing an experimental capability for Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) to better quantify the uncertainties associated with the major sources of error in hydrologic forecasting. The current HEFS capability uses two different approaches to generate uncertainty-quantified hydrologic forecasts. The first approach aims to separately model the different sources of uncertainty by including the following components: 1) the atmospheric ensemble pre-processor (EPP) that accounts for the input uncertainty to produce reliable and skillful atmospheric ensembles for the hydrologic models at the required space and time scales; 2) the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) component that propagates the input uncertainty through a suite of hydrologic models to generate streamflow ensembles using the current hydrologic conditions; 3) the hydrologic ensemble post-processor (EnsPost) that accounts for the hydrologic uncertainty and corrects for remaining systematic bias in the streamflow ensembles. In addition to the first approach, the current HEFS capability includes the Hydrologic Model Output Statistics (HMOS) streamflow ensemble processor, which quantifies the total uncertainty associated with the single-valued hydrologic forecast while correcting the bias and preserving the skill that is present in the short range forecast horizon. In these two approaches, ensembles can be generated from single-valued forecasts of precipitation, temperature, or streamflow, based on statistical relations between the single-valued forecasts and corresponding observations from a multi-year archive. To evaluate the performance of these two approaches, hindcasting is performed to retroactively produce large samples of EPP-ESP-EnsPost and HMOS streamflow ensembles. We present dependent verification results of these two sets of streamflow ensembles for up to five forecast lead days and for multiple locations.

Demargne, J.; Wu, L.; Regonda, S. K.; Brown, J. D.

2010-12-01

161

Flood Risk and Flood hazard maps - Visualisation of hydrological risks  

Microsoft Academic Search

Hydrological models are an important basis of flood forecasting and early warning systems. They provide significant data on hydrological risks. In combination with other modelling techniques, such as hydrodynamic models, they can be used to assess the extent and impact of hydrological events. The new European Flood Directive forces all member states to evaluate flood risk on a catchment scale,

Karl Spachinger; Wolfgang Dorner; Rudolf Metzka; Kamal Serrhini; Sven Fuchs

2008-01-01

162

FLOOD WARNING SYSTEM MOONIE RIVER  

E-print Network

River during flood events. Qualitative flood forecasts are issued whenever widespread minor flood levels issue. Local response organisations Page 2 of 6 04/2014 #12;These include the Councils, Police Bulletins and other weather related data is available on the Bureau's Web page at http

Greenslade, Diana

163

National plans for aircraft icing and improved aircraft icing forecasts and associated warning services  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Recently, the United States has increased its activities related to aircraft icing in numerous fields: ice phobics, revised characterization of icing conditions, instrument development/evaluation, de-ice/anti-ice devices, simulated supercooled clouds, computer simulation and flight tests. The Federal Coordinator for Meteorology is involved in two efforts, one a National Plan on Aircraft Icing and the other a plan for Improved Aircraft Icing Forecasts and Associated Warning Services. These two plans will provide an approved structure for future U.S. activities related to aircraft icing. The recommended activities will significantly improve the position of government agencies to perform mandated activities and to enable U.S. manufacturers to be competitive in the world market.

Pass, Ralph P.

1988-01-01

164

Cost of Flooding  

MedlinePLUS

... Simulator About The National Insurance Program Residential Coverage Commercial Coverage PolicyHolder Resources Preparation & Recovery Agent Site Agent ... devastating testimonials about flooding to our Home Personified commercials. Watch Now Flood Risk Scenarios There are many ...

165

Flood Frequency Analysis  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

The Flood Frequency Analysis module offers an introduction to the use of flood frequency analysis for flood prediction and planning. Through use of rich illustrations, animations, and interactions, this module explains the basic concepts, underlying issues, and methods for analyzing flood data. Common concepts such as the 100-year flood and return periods as well as issues affecting the statistical representation of floods are discussed. Common flood data analysis methods as well as an overview of design events are also covered. As a foundation topic for the Basic Hydrologic Science course, this module may be taken on its own, but it will also be available as a supporting topic providing factual scientific information to support students in completion of the case-based forecasting modules.

Comet

2006-10-10

166

Coastal ocean forecasting systems in Europe  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

During my tour as the liaison oceanographer at the Office of Naval Research's European branch, I conducted a focused study of coastal ocean forecasting systems. This study is of direct interest to ONR because of an increased interest in the coastal zone and to the civilian U.S. oceanographic community because of numerous problems in the coastal zone that could be alleviated with an operational forecasting system. The Europeans have a long history of excellent research and developmental work in this area. The Europeans' distinguished history in coastal ocean forecasting is due in part to their strong dependence on the sea. However, the original motivation for these systems was the recognition early in this century that weather conditions were responsible for damaging storm surges around the periphery of the North Sea and that science could predict these catastrophic floods. Forecasting systems called tide-surge prediction systems, which provide warnings of impending flood conditions, were designed and constructed and are operational in the various meteorological centers of the nations surrounding the North Sea. Over time, the services have been extended to provide forecasts of ocean waves, water depth for navigation, and currents for a large customer base. These systems now are being extended further into the three-dimensional domain that is required for management of problems associated with water quality, pollution, and aquaculture and fisheries interests.

Dugan, John

167

The August 2002 flood in Salzburg / Austria experience gained and lessons learned from the ``Flood of the century''?  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

On the {12th} of August 2002 a low pressure system moved slowly from northern Italy towards Slovakia. It continuously carried moist air from the Mediterranean towards the northern rim of the Alps with the effect of wide-spread heavy rainfall in Salzburg and other parts of Austria. Daily precipitation amounts of 100 - 160 mm, in some parts even more, as well as rainfall intensities of 5 - 10 mm/h , combined with well saturated soils lead to a rare flood with a return period of 100 years and more. This rare hydrological event not only caused a national catastrophe with damages of several Billion Euro, but also endangered more than 200,000 people, and even killed some. As floods are dangerous, life-threatening, destructive, and certainly amongst the most frequent and costly natural disasters in terms of human hardship as well as economic loss, a great effort, therefore, has to be made to protect people against negative impacts of floods. In order to achieve this objective, various regulations in land use planning (flood maps), constructive measurements (river regulations and technical constructions) as well as flood warning systems, which are not suitable to prevent big floods, but offer in-time-warnings to minimize the loss of human lives, are used in Austria. HYDRIS (Hydrological Information System for flood forecasting in Salzburg), a modular river basin model, developed at Technical University Vienna and operated by the Hydrological Service of Salzburg, was used during the August 2002 flood providing accurate 3 to 4 hour forecasts within 3 % of the real peak discharge of the fast flowing River Salzach. The August {12^th}} flood was in many ways an exceptional, very fast happening event which took many people by surprise. At the gauging station Salzburg / Salzach (catchment area 4425 {km^2}) it took only eighteen hours from mean annual discharge (178 {m3/s}) to the hundred years flood (2300 {m3/s}). The August flood made clear, that there is a strong need for longer lead times in Salzburg's flood forecasts. Methods to incorporate precipitation forecasts, provided by the Met Office, as well as observations of actual soil conditions, therefore, have to be developed and should enable hydrologists to predict possible scenarios and impacts of floods, forecasted for the next 24 hours. As a further consequence of the August 2002 flood, building regulations, e.g. the use of oil tanks in flood prone areas, have to be checked and were necessary adapted. It is also necessary to make people, who already live in flood prone areas, aware of the dangers of floods. They also need to know about the limits of flood protection measurements and about what happens, if flood protection design values are exceeded. Alarm plans, dissemination of information by using modern communication systems (Internet) as well as communication failure in peak times and co-ordination of rescue units are also a subject to be looked at carefully. The above mentioned measurements are amongst others of a 10 point program, developed by the Government of the Province of Salzburg and at present checked with regards to feasibility. As it is to be expected, that the August 2002 flood was not the last rare one of this century, experience gained should be valuably for the next event.

Wiesenegger, H.

2003-04-01

168

Flood-inundation maps for the Suncook River in Epsom, Pembroke, Allenstown, and Chichester, New Hampshire  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 16.5-mile reach of the Suncook River in Epsom, Pembroke, Allenstown, and Chichester, N.H., from the confluence with the Merrimack River to U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Suncook River streamgage 01089500 at Depot Road in North Chichester, N.H., were created by the USGS in cooperation with the New Hampshire Department of Homeland Security and Emergency Management. The inundation maps presented in this report depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage at Suncook River at North Chichester, N.H. (station 01089500). The current conditions at the USGS streamgage may be obtained on the Internet (http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nh/nwis/uv/?site_no=01089500&PARAmeter_cd=00065,00060). The National Weather Service forecasts flood hydrographs at many places that are often collocated with USGS streamgages. Forecasted peak-stage information is available on the Internet at the National Weather Service (NWS) Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) flood-warning system site (http://water.weather.gov/ahps/) and may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. These maps along with real-time stream stage data from the USGS Suncook River streamgage (station 01089500) and forecasted stream stage from the NWS will provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood-response activities, such as evacuations, road closures, disaster declarations, and post-flood recovery. The maps, along with current stream-stage data from the USGS Suncook River streamgage and forecasted stream-stage data from the NWS, can be accessed at the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/.

Flynn, Robert H.; Johnston, Craig M.; Hays, Laura

2012-01-01

169

Flash Flood Processes  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

According to NOAA’s National Weather Service, a flash flood is a life-threatening flood that begins within 6 hours--and often within 3 hours--of a causative event. That causative event can be intense rainfall, the failure of a dam, levee, or other structure that is impounding water, or the sudden rise of water level associated with river ice jams. The “Flash Flood Processes” module offers an introduction to the distinguishing features of flash floods, the underlying hydrologic influences and the use of flash flood guidance (FFG) products. Through use of rich illustrations, animations, and interactions, this module explains the differences between flash floods and general floods and examines the hydrologic processes that impact flash flooding risk. In addition, it provides an introduction to the use of flash flood guidance (FFG) products including derivation from ThreshR and rainfall-runoff curves as well as current strengths and limitations.

COMET

2006-11-08

170

Weather Forecasting  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Weather Forecasting is a set of computer-based learning modules that teach students about meteorology from the point of view of learning how to forecast the weather. The modules were designed as the primary teaching resource for a seminar course on weather forecasting at the introductory college level (originally METR 151, later ATMO 151) and can also be used in the laboratory component of an introductory atmospheric science course. The modules assume no prior meteorological knowledge. In addition to text and graphics, the modules include interactive questions and answers designed to reinforce student learning. The module topics are: 1. How to Access Weather Data, 2. How to Read Hourly Weather Observations, 3. The National Collegiate Weather Forecasting Contest, 4. Radiation and the Diurnal Heating Cycle, 5. Factors Affecting Temperature: Clouds and Moisture, 6. Factors Affecting Temperature: Wind and Mixing, 7. Air Masses and Fronts, 8. Forces in the Atmosphere, 9. Air Pressure, Temperature, and Height, 10. Winds and Pressure, 11. The Forecasting Process, 12. Sounding Diagrams, 13. Upper Air Maps, 14. Satellite Imagery, 15. Radar Imagery, 16. Numerical Weather Prediction, 17. NWS Forecast Models, 18. Sources of Model Error, 19. Sea Breezes, Land Breezes, and Coastal Fronts, 20. Soundings, Clouds, and Convection, 21. Snow Forecasting.

Nielsen-Gammon, John

1996-09-01

171

A comparison of the causes, effects and aftermaths of the coastal flooding of England in 1953 and France in 2010  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

This paper provides a comparison of the causes, effects and aftermaths of the coastal flooding that occurred on the east coast of England in 1953 and the west coast of France in 2010 that resulted in 307 and 47 deaths respectively. The causes of both events are strikingly similar. Both were caused by a combination of high tides, low atmospheric pressure, high winds and the failure of poorly maintained flood defences. In both cases the number of deaths was related to the vulnerability of the buildings and people. Buildings in the flood zones were often single storey bungalows and the people who died were mostly over 60 yr of age. Both tragedies were national disasters. The 1953 flood in England acted as a catalyst for an acceleration in flood risk management policy and practice. It resulted in: the development of a Storm Tide Warning System for the east coast of England; the setting of new design standards for coastal flood defences; increased investment in improving coastal defences; and a substantial new research effort into coastal processes, protection and forecasting. In France there has also been an episodic shift in flood risk management policy with the focus falling on: control of urban developments in areas at risk of flooding; improved coastal forecasting and warning; strengthening of flood defences; and developing a "culture of risk awareness". This paper outlines the lessons that can be learnt from the two events and provides recommendations concerning how future loss of life as a result of coastal flooding can be reduced.

Lumbroso, D. M.; Vinet, F.

2011-08-01

172

Flood characteristics for the Nisqually River and susceptibility of Sunshine Point and Longmire facilities to flooding in Mount Rainier National Park, Washington  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Inundation from 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year floods at Sunshine Point and Longmire facilities and the Longmire visitors ' center and ranger station generally is not a serious hazard as long as the existing dikes and banks of the Nisqually River and Tahoma Creek remain intact and flood capacities of the channels are maintained. However, average water velocities during floods are high (as much as 23 ft/sec) and the channel, banks, and some dikes are composed of unstable materials. Sunshine Point campground is particularly susceptible to flooding and damage from Tahoma Creek, and to a lesser extent from the Nisqually River, if large amounts of debris or rock material accumulate in the channels and change the flood elevation or courses of either stream. At Longmire flood inundation or damage from the Nisqually River is much less, but flooding is still possible. There, high ridges upstream protect the several park facilities from the river, but accumulations of debris or rock in the channel could cause flooding from overtopping of dikes or riverbanks. Glacial outburst floods are a matter of serious concern at both Sunshine Point campground and Longmire. Glacial outbursts can and have produced very large flood discharges and transported large quantities of debris and rock materials. Although none have been known to transport these materials from Tahoma Glacier as far as Sunshine Point campground, one in 1955 from Nisqually Glacier (estimated at 70,000 cu ft/sec near the glacier) did appreciably increase the magnitude of the water discharge at Longmire. For safety, campers and visitors need to be advised about the potential flood hazards at both facilities. (Author 's abstract)

Nelson, L.M.

1987-01-01

173

Probability Forecasting in Meteorology  

Microsoft Academic Search

Efforts to quantify the uncertainty in weather forecasts began more than 75 years ago, and many studies and experiments involving objective and subjective probability forecasting have been conducted in meteorology in the intervening period. Moreover, the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) initiated a nationwide program in 1965 in which precipitation probability forecasts were formulated on an operational basis and routinely

Allan H. Murphy; Robert L. Winkler

1984-01-01

174

Floods: The Awesome Power  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

A newly released publication from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Weather Service, and the Red Cross is entitled "Floods: The Awesome Power." The citizen-focused sixteen-page preparedness guide explains "flood-related hazards and suggests life-saving actions you can take." Readers will learn what flash floods are, what to do if youâÂÂre caught in your vehicle during a flash flood, what river floods are, how tropical cyclones create floods, where to get current weather information, what your local community can do to be more prepared for floods, and much more. The graphics rich and non-technical publication with its potentially life-saving information is definitely worth a read.

2002-01-01

175

Flood Early Warning with Integration of Hydrologic and Hydraulic Models, RS and GIS (Case Study: Madarsoo basin, Iran)  

Microsoft Academic Search

Flood warning and forecasting could be one of the most effective non-structural procedures in managing floods that decreases the risks and disasters floods may cause. The main aim of this paper is to investigate the application of RS and GIS techniques associated with hydrological model related to flood forecasting. To achieve the aim, Madarsoo river basin as a flood prone

Aliakbar Matkan; Alireza Shakiba; Hossain Pourali; Hamid Azari

2009-01-01

176

Flood Management Scenarios Based on Hydrodynamic Modeling  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper describes the scenarios developed to assist in the understanding of possible future situations of the complex river system as a part of knowledge acquisition process. Due to complexity of river system, knowledge acquisition is a major bottleneck to develop an expert system for forecasting flood. Operation of flood control gates has a very important role in flood alleviation.

Ian David

2008-01-01

177

The predictability of Iowa's hydroclimate through analog forecasts  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iowa has long been affected by periods characterized by extreme drought and flood. In 2008, Cedar Rapids, Iowa was devastated by a record flood with damages around 3 billion. Several years later, Iowa was affected by severe drought in 2012, causing upwards of 30 billion in damages and losses across the United States. These climatic regimes can quickly transition from one regime to another, as was observed in the June 2013 major floods to the late summer 2013 severe drought across eastern Iowa. Though it is not possible to prevent a natural disaster from occurring, we explore how predictable these events are by using forecast models and analogs. Iowa's climate records are analyzed from 1950 to 2012 to determine if there are specific surface and upper-air pressure patterns linked to climate regimes (i.e., cold/hot and dry/wet conditions for a given month). We found that opposing climate regimes in Iowa have reversed anomalies in certain geographical regions of the northern hemisphere. These defined patterns and waves suggested to us that it could be possible to forecast extreme temperature and precipitation periods over Iowa if given a skillful forecast system. We examined the CMC, COLA, and GFDL models within the National Multi-Model Ensemble suite to create analog forecasts based on either surface or upper-air pressure forecasts. The verification results show that some analogs have predictability skill at the 0.5-month lead time exceeding random chance, but our overall confidence in the analog forecasts is not high enough to allow us to issue statewide categorical temperature and precipitation climate forecasts.

Rowe, Scott Thomas

178

A 2D simulation model for urban flood management  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The European Floods Directive, which came into force on 26 November 2007, requires member states to assess all their water courses and coast lines for risk of flooding, to map flood extents and assets and humans at risk, and to take adequate and coordinated measures to reduce the flood risk in consultation with the public. Flood Risk Management Plans are to be in place by 2015. There are a number of reasons for the promotion of this Directive, not least because there has been much urban and other infrastructural development in flood plains, which puts many at risk of flooding along with vital societal assets. In addition there is growing awareness that the changing climate appears to be inducing more frequent extremes of rainfall with a consequent increases in the frequency of flooding. Thirdly, the growing urban populations in Europe, and especially in the developing countries, means that more people are being put at risk from a greater frequency of urban flooding in particular. There are urgent needs therefore to assess flood risk accurately and consistently, to reduce this risk where it is important to do so or where the benefit is greater than the damage cost, to improve flood forecasting and warning, to provide where necessary (and possible) flood insurance cover, and to involve all stakeholders in decision making affecting flood protection and flood risk management plans. Key data for assessing risk are water levels achieved or forecasted during a flood. Such levels should of course be monitored, but they also need to be predicted, whether for design or simulation. A 2D simulation model (PriceXD) solving the shallow water wave equations is presented specifically for determining flood risk, assessing flood defense schemes and generating flood forecasts and warnings. The simulation model is required to have a number of important properties: -Solve the full shallow water wave equations using a range of possible solutions; -Automatically adjust the time step and keep it as large as possible while maintaining the stability of the flow calculations; -Operate on a square grid at any resolution while retaining at least some details of the ground topography of the basic grid, the storage, and the form roughness and conveyance of the ground surface; -Account for the overall average ground slope for particular coarse cells; -Have the facility to refine the grid locally; -Have the facility to treat ponds or lakes as single, irregular cells; -Permit prescribed inflows and arbitrary outflows across the boundaries of the model domain or internally, and sources and sinks at any interior cell; -Simulate runoff for spatial rainfall while permitting infiltration; -Use ground surface cover and soil type indices to determine surface roughness, interception and infiltration parameters; -Present results at the basic cell level; -Have the facility to begin a model run with monitored soil moisture data; -Have the facility to hot-start a simulation using dumped data from a previous simulation; -Operate with a graphics cards for parallel processing; -Have the facility to link directly to the urban drainage simulation software such as SWMM through an Open Modelling Interface; -Be linked to the Netherlands national rainfall database for continuous simulation of rainfall-runoff for particular polders and urban areas; -Make the engine available as Open Source together with benchmark datasets; PriceXD forms a key modelling component of an integrated urban water management system consisting of an on-line database and a number of complementary modelling systems for urban hydrology, groundwater, potable water distribution, wastewater and stormwater drainage (separate and combined sewerage), wastewater treatment, and surface channel networks. This will be a 'plug and play' system. By linking the models together, confidence in the accuracy of the above-ground damage and construction costs is comparable to the below-ground costs. What is more, PriceXD can be used to examine additional physical phenomenon such as the interaction between flood flows and

Price, Roland; van der Wielen, Jonathan; Velickov, Slavco; Galvao, Diogo

2014-05-01

179

Forecasting distributional responses of limber pine to climate change at management-relevant scales in Rocky Mountain National Park.  

PubMed

Resource managers at parks and other protected areas are increasingly expected to factor climate change explicitly into their decision making frameworks. However, most protected areas are small relative to the geographic ranges of species being managed, so forecasts need to consider local adaptation and community dynamics that are correlated with climate and affect distributions inside protected area boundaries. Additionally, niche theory suggests that species' physiological capacities to respond to climate change may be underestimated when forecasts fail to consider the full breadth of climates occupied by the species rangewide. Here, using correlative species distribution models that contrast estimates of climatic sensitivity inferred from the two spatial extents, we quantify the response of limber pine (Pinus flexilis) to climate change in Rocky Mountain National Park (Colorado, USA). Models are trained locally within the park where limber pine is the community dominant tree species, a distinct structural-compositional vegetation class of interest to managers, and also rangewide, as suggested by niche theory. Model forecasts through 2100 under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5 W/m(2)) show that the distribution of limber pine in the park is expected to move upslope in elevation, but changes in total and core patch area remain highly uncertain. Most of this uncertainty is biological, as magnitudes of projected change are considerably more variable between the two spatial extents used in model training than they are between RCPs, and novel future climates only affect local model predictions associated with RCP 8.5 after 2091. Combined, these results illustrate the importance of accounting for unknowns in species' climatic sensitivities when forecasting distributional scenarios that are used to inform management decisions. We discuss how our results for limber pine may be interpreted in the context of climate change vulnerability and used to help guide adaptive management. PMID:24391742

Monahan, William B; Cook, Tammy; Melton, Forrest; Connor, Jeff; Bobowski, Ben

2013-01-01

180

7 CFR 621.45 - Flood insurance studies.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

...FEMA), and within the limits of available resources, NRCS...out flood insurance studies of various types under the National Flood Insurance Program (Pub. L. 90-448, 82 Statute...determine the extent and frequency of flooding. The flood...

2011-01-01

181

7 CFR 621.45 - Flood insurance studies.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

...FEMA), and within the limits of available resources, NRCS...out flood insurance studies of various types under the National Flood Insurance Program (Pub. L. 90-448, 82 Statute...determine the extent and frequency of flooding. The flood...

2010-01-01

182

7 CFR 621.45 - Flood insurance studies.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

...FEMA), and within the limits of available resources, NRCS...out flood insurance studies of various types under the National Flood Insurance Program (Pub. L. 90-448, 82 Statute...determine the extent and frequency of flooding. The flood...

2013-01-01

183

7 CFR 621.45 - Flood insurance studies.  

...FEMA), and within the limits of available resources, NRCS...out flood insurance studies of various types under the National Flood Insurance Program (Pub. L. 90-448, 82 Statute...determine the extent and frequency of flooding. The flood...

2014-01-01

184

7 CFR 621.45 - Flood insurance studies.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

...FEMA), and within the limits of available resources, NRCS...out flood insurance studies of various types under the National Flood Insurance Program (Pub. L. 90-448, 82 Statute...determine the extent and frequency of flooding. The flood...

2012-01-01

185

Flood-inundation maps for the Mississinewa River at Marion, Indiana, 2013  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 9-mile (mi) reach of the Mississinewa River from 0.75 mi upstream from the Pennsylvania Street bridge in Marion, Indiana, to 0.2 mi downstream from State Route 15 were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Indiana Office of Community and Rural Affairs. The flood inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation, depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage on the Mississinewa River at Marion (station number 03326500). Near-real-time stages at this streamgage may be obtained on the Internet from the USGS National Water Information System at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ or the National Weather Service (NWS) Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http://water.weather.gov/ahps/, which also forecasts flood hydrographs at this site. Flood profiles were computed for the stream reach by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The model was calibrated by using the current stage-discharge relation at the Mississinewa River streamgage, in combination with water-surface profiles from historic floods and from the current (2002) flood-insurance study for Grant County, Indiana. The hydraulic model was then used to compute seven water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-fo (ft) intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from 10 ft, which is near bankfull, to 16 ft, which is between the water levels associated with the estimated 10- and 2-percent annual exceedance probability floods (floods with recurrence interval between 10 and 50 years) and equals the “major flood stage” as defined by the NWS. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a Geographic Information System digital elevation model (derived from light detection and ranging (lidar) data having a 0.98 ft vertical accuracy and 4.9 ft horizontal resolution) to delineate the area flooded at each water level. The availability of these maps, along with Internet information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgage and forecasted high-flow stages from the NWS, will provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for post-flood recovery efforts.

Coon, William F.

2014-01-01

186

USGS Crews Measure Historic Flooding in Fargo, ND  

USGS Multimedia Gallery

USGS scientists Chris Laveau and Joel Galloway measure streamflow during historical flooding in Fargo, ND. This information is critical for developing flood forecasts to help protect lives and property....

2009-03-30

187

Warm Season Storms, Floods, and Tributary Sand Inputs below Glen Canyon Dam: Investigating Salience to Adaptive Management in the Context of a 10-Year Long Controlled Flooding Experiment in Grand Canyon National Park, AZ, USA  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The planning and decision processes in the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program (GCDAMP) strive to balance numerous, often competing, objectives, such as, water supply, hydropower generation, low flow maintenance, maximizing conservation of downstream tributary sand supply, endangered native fish, and other sociocultural resources of Glen Canyon National Recreation Area and Grand Canyon National Park. In this context, use of monitored and predictive information on the warm season floods (at point-to-regional scales) has been identified as lead-information for a new 10-year long controlled flooding experiment (termed the High-Flow Experiment Protocol) intended to determine management options for rebuilding and maintaining sandbars in Grand Canyon; an adaptive strategy that can potentially facilitate improved planning and dam operations. In this work, we focus on a key concern identified by the GCDAMP, related to the timing and volume of tributary sand input from the Paria and Little Colorado Rivers (located 26 and 124 km below the dam, respectively) into the Colorado River in Grand Canyon National Park. Episodic and intraseasonal variations (with links to equatorial and sub-tropical Pacific sea surface temperature variability) in the southwest hydroclimatology are investigated to understand the magnitude, timing and spatial scales of warm season floods from this relatively small, but prolific sand producing drainage of the semi-arid Colorado Plateau. The coupled variations of the flood-driven sediment input (magnitude and timing) from these two drainages into the Colorado River are also investigated. The physical processes, including diagnosis of storms and moisture sources, are mapped alongside the planning and decision processes for the ongoing experimental flood releases from the Glen Canyon Dam which are aimed at achieving restoration and maintenance of sandbars and instream ecology. The GCDAMP represents one of the most visible and widely recognized adaptive management efforts in the world to manage resources under growing environmental uncertainty as climate change and global warming continues.

Jain, S.; Melis, T. S.; Topping, D. J.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Eischeid, J.

2013-12-01

188

Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy  

SciTech Connect

The focus of this report is the wind forecasting system developed during this contract period with results of performance through the end of 2010. The report is intentionally high-level, with technical details disseminated at various conferences and academic papers. At the end of 2010, Xcel Energy managed the output of 3372 megawatts of installed wind energy. The wind plants span three operating companies1, serving customers in eight states2, and three market structures3. The great majority of the wind energy is contracted through power purchase agreements (PPAs). The remainder is utility owned, Qualifying Facilities (QF), distributed resources (i.e., 'behind the meter'), or merchant entities within Xcel Energy's Balancing Authority footprints. Regardless of the contractual or ownership arrangements, the output of the wind energy is balanced by Xcel Energy's generation resources that include fossil, nuclear, and hydro based facilities that are owned or contracted via PPAs. These facilities are committed and dispatched or bid into day-ahead and real-time markets by Xcel Energy's Commercial Operations department. Wind energy complicates the short and long-term planning goals of least-cost, reliable operations. Due to the uncertainty of wind energy production, inherent suboptimal commitment and dispatch associated with imperfect wind forecasts drives up costs. For example, a gas combined cycle unit may be turned on, or committed, in anticipation of low winds. The reality is winds stayed high, forcing this unit and others to run, or be dispatched, to sub-optimal loading positions. In addition, commitment decisions are frequently irreversible due to minimum up and down time constraints. That is, a dispatcher lives with inefficient decisions made in prior periods. In general, uncertainty contributes to conservative operations - committing more units and keeping them on longer than may have been necessary for purposes of maintaining reliability. The downside is costs are higher. In organized electricity markets, units that are committed for reliability reasons are paid their offer price even when prevailing market prices are lower. Often, these uplift charges are allocated to market participants that caused the inefficient dispatch in the first place. Thus, wind energy facilities are burdened with their share of costs proportional to their forecast errors. For Xcel Energy, wind energy uncertainty costs manifest depending on specific market structures. In the Public Service of Colorado (PSCo), inefficient commitment and dispatch caused by wind uncertainty increases fuel costs. Wind resources participating in the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) footprint make substantial payments in the real-time markets to true-up their day-ahead positions and are additionally burdened with deviation charges called a Revenue Sufficiency Guarantee (RSG) to cover out of market costs associated with operations. Southwest Public Service (SPS) wind plants cause both commitment inefficiencies and are charged Southwest Power Pool (SPP) imbalance payments due to wind uncertainty and variability. Wind energy forecasting helps mitigate these costs. Wind integration studies for the PSCo and Northern States Power (NSP) operating companies have projected increasing costs as more wind is installed on the system due to forecast error. It follows that reducing forecast error would reduce these costs. This is echoed by large scale studies in neighboring regions and states that have recommended adoption of state-of-the-art wind forecasting tools in day-ahead and real-time planning and operations. Further, Xcel Energy concluded reduction of the normalized mean absolute error by one percent would have reduced costs in 2008 by over $1 million annually in PSCo alone. The value of reducing forecast error prompted Xcel Energy to make substantial investments in wind energy forecasting research and development.

Parks, K.; Wan, Y. H.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.

2011-10-01

189

COMPARISON OF FLOOD PREDICTION MODELS FOR RIVER LOKOJA, NIGERIA  

Microsoft Academic Search

Flood estimation is one of the major aspects of hydrologic design and is the first in planning for flood regulation and protection measures. This research work was aimed at comparing prediction models for forecasting flood occurrences in River Lokoja, located in Kogi State of Nigeria. Relevant climatic data such as rainfalls, flood discharges, river stages of 24 years duration (1980

190

Flash Flood Processes: International Edition  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Flash floods can occur in nearly any area of the world. A rainfall-induced flash flood is a truly hydrometeorological event: one that depends on both hydrologic and meteorological conditions. Forecasting flash floods involves a detailed understanding of the local hydrologic features and continual monitoring of the current meteorological situation. This module examines both the hydrologic and meteorological processes that often contribute to the development of flash flooding. Common tools and technologies that are used in flash flood monitoring and forecasting, from manual gauging systems to complex radar- and satellite-based runoff models, are explored. This module also examines the strengths and limitations of these technologies, as well as how they are likely to advance in the future.

COMET

2011-02-22

191

Improving flash flood forecasting through coupling of a distributed hydrologic rainfall-runoff model (HL-RDHM) with a hydraulic model (BreZo)  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flash floods can be the most devastating events causing heavy life and economic losses. Improving flash flood warning in regions prone to hydrologic extremes is one highest priority of watershed managers. In this study, a distributed flash flood modeling system is presented. This system consists of advantages of a distributed hydrologic model (HL-RDHM) and the appropriate level of physical representation of channel flow through a high-resolution hydraulic model (BreZo). HL-RDHM is employed as a rainfall-runoff generator for runoff flow simulation, while the output from HL-RDHM is then used as input for the BreZo model, which simulates fine resolution flow in the river/channel system. The surface runoff generated from HL-RDHM is zoned to sub-catchment outlets and each outlet is considered as a point source to the channels. Multiple point sources are then simulated within BreZo to produce flash flood simulations in spatial and temporal distribution for the particular river/channel system and/or floodplain. A case study was carried out for ELDO2 catchment in Oklahoma. ArcGIS Terrain Processing tools were used to divide ELDO2 (10m resolution) into sub-catchments with outlets. The surface flow from HL-RDHM was re-gridded to 10m resolution, then zoned to the 57 sub-catchments. The results obtained are very promising not only for better simulating the total discharge at the watershed outlet, but also for capturing the spatial distribution of flooded area in the floodplains. Flooded map of ELDO2 (in meters) during the extreme event starting at 06/21/2000 10:00:00

Nguyen, P.; Sorooshian, S.; Hsu, K.; AghaKouchak, A.; Sanders, B. F.; Smith, M. B.; Koren, V.

2012-12-01

192

Transition of Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) Data Products for Operational Weather Forecasting Applications  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The launch of the Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) satellite provides new and exciting opportunities for the application of remotely sensed data products in operational weather forecasting environments. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center in Huntsville, Alabama is a NASA and NOAA-funded project to assist with the transition of experimental and research products to the operational weather community through partnership with NOAA/National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices (NWS WFOs) throughout the United States. This presentation will provide the S-NPP community with an update on current and future SPoRT projects related to the dissemination of S-NPP derived data to NWS WFOs and highlight unique applications and value of data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), specifically applications of high resolution visible and infrared data, uses of the day-night (or near constant contrast) band, and multispectral composites. Other applications are envisioned through use of selected channels of the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS), the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS), and the Ozone Mapper Profiler Suite (OMPS). This presentation will also highlight opportunities for future collaboration with SPoRT and activities planned for participation in the NOAA Joint Polar Satellite Program (JPSS) Proving Ground.

Smith, M. R.; Fuell, K.; Molthan, A.; Jedlovec, G.

2012-12-01

193

Flood estimates for ungaged streams in Glacier and Yellowstone National Parks, Montana  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Estimates of 100-year discharges were made at 59 sites in Glacier National Park and 21 sites in Yellowstone National Park to assist the National Park Services in quantifying stream inflow and outflow in the Parks. The estimates were made using regression equations previously developed for Montana. The resulting 100-year discharges are listed in tables; the discharges ranged from 260 to 53,200 cu ft/s in Glacier National Park and from 110 to 27,900 cu ft/s in Yellowstone National Park. (USGS)

Omang, R.J.; Parrett, Charles; Hull, J.A.

1983-01-01

194

National forecast for geothermal resource exploration and development with techniques for policy analysis and resource assessment  

SciTech Connect

The backgrund, structure and use of modern forecasting methods for estimating the future development of geothermal energy in the United States are documented. The forecasting instrument may be divided into two sequential submodels. The first predicts the timing and quality of future geothermal resource discoveries from an underlying resource base. This resource base represents an expansion of the widely-publicized USGS Circular 790. The second submodel forecasts the rate and extent of utilization of geothermal resource discoveries. It is based on the joint investment behavior of resource developers and potential users as statistically determined from extensive industry interviews. It is concluded that geothermal resource development, especially for electric power development, will play an increasingly significant role in meeting US energy demands over the next 2 decades. Depending on the extent of R and D achievements in related areas of geosciences and technology, expected geothermal power development will reach between 7700 and 17300 Mwe by the year 2000. This represents between 8 and 18% of the expected electric energy demand (GWh) in western and northwestern states.

Cassel, T.A.V.; Shimamoto, G.T.; Amundsen, C.B.; Blair, P.D.; Finan, W.F.; Smith, M.R.; Edeistein, R.H.

1982-03-31

195

Thirty Years Later: Reflections of the Big Thompson Flood, Colorado, 1976 to 2006  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thirty years ago, over 300 mm of rain fell in about 4 to 6 hours in the middle reaches of the Big Thompson River Basin during the devastating flash flood on July 31, 1976. The rainstorm produced flood discharges that exceeded 40 m3/s/km2. A peak discharge of 883 m3/s was estimated at the Big Thompson River near Drake streamflow-gaging station. The raging waters left 144 people dead, 250 injured, and over 800 people were evacuated by helicopter. Four-hundred eighteen homes and businesses were destroyed, as well as 438 automobiles, and damage to infrastructure left the canyon reachable only via helicopter. Total damage was estimated in excess of $116 million (2006 dollars). Natural hazards similar to the Big Thompson flood are rare, but the probability of a similar event hitting the Front Range, other parts of Colorado, or other parts of the Nation is real. Although much smaller in scale than the Big Thompson flood, several flash floods have happened during the monsoon in early July 2006 in the Colorado foothills that reemphasized the hazards associated with flash flooding. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducts flood research to help understand and predict the magnitude and likelihood of large streamflow events such as the Big Thompson flood. A summary of hydrologic conditions of the 1976 flood, what the 1976 flood can teach us about flash floods, a description of some of the advances in USGS flood science as a consequence of this disaster, and lessons that we learned to help reduce loss of life from this extraordinary flash flood are discussed. In the 30 years since the Big Thompson flood, there have been important advances in streamflow monitoring and flood warning. The National Weather Service (NWS) NEXRAD radar allows real-time monitoring of precipitation in most places in the United States. The USGS currently (2006) operates about 7,250 real-time streamflow-gaging stations in the United States that are monitored by the USGS, the NWS, and emergency managers. When substantial flooding occurs, the USGS mobilizes personnel to collect streamflow data in affected areas. Streamflow data improve flood forecasting and provide data for flood-frequency analysis for floodplain management, design of structures located in floodplains, and related water studies. An important lesson learned is that nature provides environmental signs before and during floods that can help people avoid hazard areas. Important contributions to flood science as a result of the 1976 flood include development of paleoflood methods to interpret the preserved flood-plain stratigraphy to document the number, magnitude, and age of floods that occurred prior to streamflow monitoring. These methods and data on large floods can be used in many mountain-river systems to help us better understand flood hazards and plan for the future. For example, according to conventional flood-frequency analysis, the 1976 Big Thompson flood had a flood recurrence interval of about 100 years. However, paleoflood research indicated the 1976 flood was the largest in about the last 10,000 years in the basin and had a flood recurrence interval in excess of 1,000 years.

Jarrett, R. D.; Costa, J. E.; Brunstein, F. C.; Quesenberry, C. A.; Vandas, S. J.; Capesius, J. P.; O'Neill, G. B.

2006-12-01

196

An expanded model: flood-inundation maps for the Leaf River at Hattiesburg, Mississippi, 2013  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 6.8-mile reach of the Leaf River at Hattiesburg, Mississippi (Miss.), were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the City of Hattiesburg, City of Petal, Forrest County, Mississippi Emergency Management Agency, Mississippi Department of Homeland Security, and the Emergency Management District. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/, depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage at Leaf River at Hattiesburg, Miss. (station no. 02473000). Current conditions for estimating near-real-time areas of inundation by use of USGS streamgage information may be obtained on the Internet at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/. In addition, the information has been provided to the National Weather Service (NWS) for incorporation into their Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) flood warning system (http://water.weather.gov/ahps/). The NWS forecasts flood hydrographs at many places that are often colocated with USGS streamgages. NWS-forecasted peak-stage information may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. In this study, flood profiles were computed for the stream reach by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The model was calibrated by using the most current stage-discharge relations at the Leaf River at Hattiesburg, Miss. streamgage (02473000) and documented high-water marks from recent and historical floods. The hydraulic model was then used to determine 13 water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1.0-foot intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from bankfull to approximately the highest recorded water level at the streamgage. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system (GIS) digital elevation model (DEM, derived from light detection and ranging (lidar) data having a 0.6-foot vertical and 9.84-foot horizontal resolution) in order to delineate the area flooded at each water level. Development of the estimated flood inundation maps as described in this report update previously published inundation estimates by including reaches of the Bouie and Leaf Rivers above their confluence. The availability of these maps along with Internet information regarding current stage from USGS streamgages and forecasted stream stages from the NWS provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures as well as for post flood recovery efforts.

Storm, John B.

2014-01-01

197

Namibian Flood Early Warning SensorWeb Pilot  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

The major goal of the Namibia SensorWeb Pilot Project is a scientifically sound, operational trans-boundary flood management decision support system for Southern African region to provide useful flood and waterborne disease forecasting tools for local decision makers. The Pilot Project established under the auspices of: Namibian Ministry of Agriculture Water and Forestry (MAWF), Department of Water Affairs; Committee on Earth Observing Satellites (CEOS), Working Group on Information Systems and Services (WGISS); and moderated by the United Nations Platform for Space-based Information for Disaster Management and Emergency Response (UN-SPIDER). The effort consists of identifying and prototyping technology which enables the rapid gathering and dissemination of both space-based and ground sensor data and data products for the purpose of flood disaster management and water-borne disease management.

Mandl, Daniel; Policelli, Fritz; Frye, Stuart; Cappelare, Pat; Langenhove, Guido Van; Szarzynski, Joerg; Sohlberg, Rob

2010-01-01

198

Assessment of NOx and O3 forecasting performances in the U.S. National Air Quality Forecasting Capability before and after the 2012 major emissions updates  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In this study, we address outdated emissions inventory problems in air quality forecasting systems. The National Emissions Inventory for NOx from area and mobile sources is projected from 2005 to 2012 and NOx from point sources is projected from 2010 to 2012, in which we find that NOx emissions from area, mobile and point sources reduce by 8.1%, 37.8% and 4.1%, respectively. The majority of the NOx emissions reduction occurs in megacities over the CONtiguous U.S. (CONUS), in which the spatial distribution pattern is generally supported by the NO2 column result retrieved from the GOME-2 satellite data. The CMAQ-predicted NOx and O3 concentrations using updated NOx emissions were then compared to Air Quality System (AQS) ground observations in order to evaluate the updated NOx emissions inventory. The comparison showed an improvement in NOx and O3 predictions over the CONUS. The NOx bias, in July 2011, for urban, suburban and rural land-use types was reduced by 2.34 ppb, 2.09 ppb and 0.57 ppb, respectively. Meanwhile, the O3 bias is reduced by 0.92 ppb, 1.26 ppb and 1.87 ppb, respectively. However, problems remain in CMAQ for NOx and O3 simulations despite undertaking this emissions adjustment. For example, the O3 overestimation in CMAQ during the daytime over the CONUS decreases when the NOx underestimation increases, suggesting that in addition to the NOx emissions inventory, further study of VOC emissions, NOx chemical and physical mechanisms as well as meteorology parameters in the NAQFC is necessary.

Pan, Li; Tong, Daniel; Lee, Pius; Kim, H.-C.; Chai, Tianfeng

2014-10-01

199

The Effects of the Saluda Dam on the Surface-Water and Ground-Water Hydrology of the Congaree National Park Flood Plain, South Carolina  

USGS Publications Warehouse

The Congaree National Park was established '... to preserve and protect for the education, inspiration, and enjoyment of present and future generations an outstanding example of a near-virgin, southern hardwood forest situated in the Congaree River flood plain in Richland County, South Carolina' (Public Law 94-545). The resource managers at Congaree National Park are concerned about the timing, frequency, magnitude, and duration of flood-plain inundation of the Congaree River. The dynamics of the Congaree River directly affect ground-water levels in the flood plain, and the delivery of sediments and nutrients is constrained by the duration, extent, and frequency of flooding from the Congaree River. The Congaree River is the southern boundary of the Congaree National Park and is formed by the convergence of the Saluda and Broad Rivers 24 river miles upstream from the park. The streamflow of the Saluda River has been regulated since 1929 by the operation of the Saluda Dam at Lake Murray. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, Congaree National Park, studied the interaction between surface water in the Congaree River and ground water in the flood plain to determine the effect Saluda Dam operations have on water levels in the Congaree National Park flood plain. Analysis of peak flows showed the reduction in peak flows after the construction of Lake Murray was more a result of climate variability and the absence of large floods after 1930 than the operation of the Lake Murray dam. Dam operations reduced the recurrence interval of the 2-year to 100-year peak flows by 6.1 to 17.6 percent, respectively. Analysis of the daily gage height of the Congaree River showed that the dam has had the effect of lowering high gage heights (95th percentile) in the first half of the year (December to May) and raising low gage heights (5th percentile) in the second half of the year (June to November). The dam has also had the effect of increasing the 1-, 3-, 7-, 30-, and 90-day minimum gage heights by as much as 23.9 percent and decreasing the 1-, 3-, 7-, 30-, and 90-day maximum gage heights by as much as 7.2 percent. Analysis of the ground-water elevations in the Congaree National Park flood plain shows similar results as the gage-height analysis--the dam has had the effect of lowering high ground-water elevations and increasing low ground-water elevations. Overall, the operation of the dam has had a greater effect on the gage heights within the river banks than gage heights in the flood plain. This result may have a greater effect on the subsurface water levels of the surficial flood-plain aquifer than the frequency and magnitude of inundation of the flood plain.

Conrads, Paul A.; Feaster, Toby D.; Harrelson, Larry G.

2008-01-01

200

A methodology for urban flood resilience assessment  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In Europe, river floods have been increasing in frequency and severity [Szöllösi-Nagy and Zevenbergen, 2005]. Moreover, climate change is expected to exacerbate the frequency and intensity of hydro meteorological disaster [IPCC, 2007]. Despite efforts made to maintain the flood defense assets, we often observe levee failures leading to finally increase flood risk in protected area. Furthermore, flood forecasting models, although benefiting continuous improvements, remain partly inaccurate due to uncertainties arising all along data calculation processes. In the same time, the year 2007 marks a turning point in history: half of the world population now lives in cities (UN-Habitat, 2007). Moreover, the total urban population is expected to double from two to four billion over the next 30 to 35 years (United Nations, 2006). This growing rate is equivalent to the creation of a new city of one million inhabitants every week, and this during the next four decades [Flood resilience Group]. So, this quick urban development coupled with technical failures and climate change have increased flood risk and corresponding challenges to urban flood risk management [Ashley et al., 2007], [Nie et al., 2009]. These circumstances oblige to manage flood risk by integrating new concepts like urban resilience. In recent years, resilience has become a central concept for risk management. This concept has emerged because a more resilient system is less vulnerable to risk and, therefore, more sustainable [Serre et al., 2010]. But urban flood resilience is a concept that has not yet been directly assessed. Therefore, when decision makers decide to use the resilience concept to manage urban flood, they have no tool to help them. That is why this paper proposes a methodology to assess urban flood resilience in order to make this concept operational. Networks affect the well-being of the people and the smooth functioning of services and, more generally, of economical activities. Yet, multiple networks that innervate the city are particularly sensitive to flooding, through their structures and geographic constraints. Because societal functions are highly dependent on networked systems and the operability of these systems can be vulnerable to disasters, there is a need to understand how networked systems are resilient. That is why, considering that networks can be regarded as the "flood gateway" [Lhomme et al., 2009], we will focus on the resilience assessment of these critical networks before urban resilience assessment. The first part of this paper introduce resilience concept to well understand the importance of this concept to manage flood risk and of assessing this resilience. In a second part, this paper presents the use of safety methods to model network system dysfunctions during flood and then to produce resilience indicators. Finally it presents use of graph theory to assess adaptive capacity of these networks. These researches are the first steps toward the development of a GIS tool to optimize preparedness and recovery after a flood event.

Lhomme, Serge; Serre, Damien; Diab, Youssef; Laganier, Richard

2010-05-01

201

Improvements in fast-response flood modeling: desktop parallel computing and domain tracking  

SciTech Connect

It is becoming increasingly important to have the ability to accurately forecast flooding, as flooding accounts for the most losses due to natural disasters in the world and the United States. Flood inundation modeling has been dominated by one-dimensional approaches. These models are computationally efficient and are considered by many engineers to produce reasonably accurate water surface profiles. However, because the profiles estimated in these models must be superimposed on digital elevation data to create a two-dimensional map, the result may be sensitive to the ability of the elevation data to capture relevant features (e.g. dikes/levees, roads, walls, etc...). Moreover, one-dimensional models do not explicitly represent the complex flow processes present in floodplains and urban environments and because two-dimensional models based on the shallow water equations have significantly greater ability to determine flow velocity and direction, the National Research Council (NRC) has recommended that two-dimensional models be used over one-dimensional models for flood inundation studies. This paper has shown that two-dimensional flood modeling computational time can be greatly reduced through the use of Java multithreading on multi-core computers which effectively provides a means for parallel computing on a desktop computer. In addition, this paper has shown that when desktop parallel computing is coupled with a domain tracking algorithm, significant computation time can be eliminated when computations are completed only on inundated cells. The drastic reduction in computational time shown here enhances the ability of two-dimensional flood inundation models to be used as a near-real time flood forecasting tool, engineering, design tool, or planning tool. Perhaps even of greater significance, the reduction in computation time makes the incorporation of risk and uncertainty/ensemble forecasting more feasible for flood inundation modeling (NRC 2000; Sayers et al. 2000).

Judi, David R [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Mcpherson, Timothy N [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Burian, Steven J [UNIV. OF UTAH

2009-01-01

202

Rainfall-River Forecasting Fusion Team Rainfall-River Forecasting Summit  

E-print Network

1 Rainfall-River Forecasting Fusion Team Rainfall-River Forecasting Summit St. Paul, MN Monday, Oct 19, 2009 #12;2 Created as a 2008 Midwest Flood after-action from the Rainfall-River Forecasting Summit (Oct 2008) Main area of focus, Mississippi River Basin Member Agencies - USACE, USGS, NWS USACE

US Army Corps of Engineers

203

Short-range ensemble streamflow forecasting of the Upper Trinity River - Evaluation via hindcasting experiments  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

By allowing for routine use of longer-lead quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) in hydrologic prediction, ensemble forecasting offers hope for extending the lead time for short-range flood forecasting. In this work, we assess this potential by evaluating the quality of short-range streamflow hindcasts for five headwater basins in the Upper Trinity River Basin in North Texas. The hindcasts are generated from the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS) of the National Weather Service (NWS). The HEFS operates as a part of the Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS) of the NWS. Currently, the HEFS models the input and hydrologic uncertainties using the Meteorological Ensemble Forecast Processor (MEFP) and the Ensemble Post-Processor (EnsPost), respectively. For generation of short-range ensemble precipitation forecasts, the MEFS models the conditional probability distribution of observed precipitation given the single-valued quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF). For hydrologic uncertainty, EnsPost models the conditional distribution of observed streamflow given the simulated streamflow and the most recently observed streamflow. We design and carry out hindcasting experiments to evaluate the quality of both precipitation and streamflow ensembles, and to assess the value of short-range ensemble streamflow forecasts relative to the existing single-valued forecasts. For the above, we used the Ensemble Verification System (EVS) also developed by the NWS. We describe the hindcasting experiments, summarize the results, and identify issues and challenges.

Saharia, M.; Seo, D.; Corby, R.; He, K.

2013-05-01

204

Current Usage and Future Prospects of Multispectral (RGB) Satellite Imagery in Support of NWS Forecast Offices and National Centers  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

What is an RGB Composite Image? (1) Current and future satellite instruments provide remote sensing at a variety of wavelengths. (2) RGB composite imagery assign individual wavelengths or channel differences to the intensities of the red, green, and blue components of a pixel color. (3) Each red, green, and blue color intensity is related to physical properties within the final composite image. (4) Final color assignments are therefore related to the characteristics of image pixels. (5) Products may simplify the interpretation of data from multiple bands by displaying information in a single image. Current Products and Usage: Collaborations between SPoRT, CIRA, and NRL have facilitated the use and evaluation of RGB products at a variety of NWS forecast offices and National Centers. These products are listed in table.

Molthan, Andrew; Fuell, Kevin; Knaff, John; Lee, Thomas

2012-01-01

205

Current Usage and Future Prospects of Multispectral (RGB) Satellite Imagery in Support of NWS Forecast Offices and National Centers  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Current and future satellite sensors provide remotely sensed quantities from a variety of wavelengths ranging from the visible to the passive microwave, from both geostationary and low-Earth orbits. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has a long history of providing multispectral imagery from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard NASA s Terra and Aqua satellites in support of NWS forecast office activities. Products from MODIS have recently been extended to include a broader suite of multispectral imagery similar to those developed by EUMETSAT, based upon the spectral channel s available from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) aboard METEOSAT-9. This broader suite includes products that discriminate between air mass types associated with synoptic-scale features, assists in the identification of dust, and improves upon paired channel difference detection of fog and low cloud events. Similarly, researchers at NOAA/NESDIS and CIRA have developed air mass discrimination capabilities using channels available from the current GOES Sounders. Other applications of multispectral composites include combinations of high and low frequency, horizontal and vertically polarized passive microwave brightness temperatures to discriminate tropical cyclone structures and other synoptic-scale features. Many of these capabilities have been transitioned for evaluation and operational use at NWS Weather Forecast Offices and National Centers through collaborations with SPoRT and CIRA. Future instruments will continue the availability of these products and also expand upon current capabilities. The Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) on GOES-R will improve the spectral, spatial, and temporal resolution of our current geostationary capabilities, and the recent launch of the Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) carries instruments such as the Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS), and the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS), which have unrivaled spectral and spatial resolution, as precursors to the JPSS era (i.e., the next generation of polar orbiting satellites). At the same time, new image manipulation and display capabilities are available within AWIPS II, the next generation of the NWS forecaster decision support system. This presentation will present a review of SPoRT, CIRA, and NRL collaborations regarding multispectral satellite imagery and articulate an integrated and collaborative path forward with Raytheon AWIPS II development staff for integrating current and future capabilities that support new satellite instrumentation and the AWIPS II decision support system.

Molthan, Andrew L.; Fuell, Kevin K.; Knaff, John; Lee, Thomas

2012-01-01

206

USDA's national aquaculture production outlook for 2006: Growth and expansion forecasted Still more imports Even with these changes, imports of aqua-  

E-print Network

USDA's national aquaculture production outlook for 2006: Growth and expansion forecasted Still more aquaculture operations were not severely impacted by storms. Factors for growth The overall picture of anticipated growth in the domestic aquaculture and seafood industries during 2006 is based on four major

Florida, University of

207

Estimating monetary damages from flooding under a changing climate  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Extreme precipitation events will very likely become both more frequent and more extreme under a changing climate. It follows that monetary damages from flooding are also likely to increase; yet translating forecast changes in precipitation to changes in flood damages becomes increasingly difficult as the spatial scale of analysis increases. Our goal was to develop a method for estimating changes in monetary damages from flooding under a changing climate at the national scale. To do this, we compiled precipitation and flood damage data from the 99 ASRs in the continental U.S. (a spatial scale intermediate between 4-digit and 2-digit HUCs), and used statistical modeling to quantify relationships between these variables at the scale of the 18 water resource regions (WRRs) in the U.S. Data on flood damages were obtained from the National climatic Data Center (NCDC) storms database, for the years 1993-2008. Each entry in the database includes the date on which the flood occurred; the county in which it occurred; and the crop damage, property damage, and total damage in dollars associated with the flood event. All dollar values were updated to 2007 dollars using annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) values. Counties were matched to corresponding ASRs, from which all available precipitation station data were downloaded for the same period. A logistic regression model was then used to model the probability of a flood exceeding a specified magnitude of monetary damages, by WRR. Independent variables in the model included the median precipitation across the ASR on that day, the standard deviation of precipitation in the ASR on that day, the total 1-day, 3-day, and 5-day precipitation in the ASR (measured as the sum of precipitation at all stations on the previous days), the season, and the interaction of season with median, standard deviation, and total 1-, 3-, and 5-day precipitation. Separate models were estimated for each WRR under baseline conditions, and flood damages under future climates were then modeled using a range of future precipitation scenarios. The models generally show a positive relationship between median and total precipitation and the probability of a damaging flood occurring. Seasonality also plays a very significant role, although this varies substantially across WRRs. Preliminary results indicate that monetary damages from floods are likely to increase in nearly all regions of the United States, but that changes in damages are not uniformly distributed across the nation.

Wobus, C. W.; Lawson, M.; Smith, J. B.; Jones, R.; Morlando, S.

2011-12-01

208

Utilization of Precipitation and Moisture Products Derived from Satellites to Support NOAA Operational Precipitation Forecasts  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

NOAA/NESDIS operates a constellation of polar and geostationary orbiting satellites to support weather forecasts and to monitor the climate. Additionally, NOAA utilizes satellite assets from other U.S. agencies like NASA and the Department of Defense, as well as those from other nations with similar weather and climate responsibilities (i.e., EUMETSAT and JMA). Over the past two decades, through joint efforts between U.S. and international government researchers, academic partners, and private sector corporations, a series of "value added" products have been developed to better serve the needs of weather forecasters and to exploit the full potential of precipitation and moisture products generated from these satellites. In this presentation, we will focus on two of these products - Ensemble Tropical Rainfall Potential (eTRaP) and Blended Total Precipitable Water (bTPW) - and provide examples on how they contribute to hydrometeorological forecasts. In terms of passive microwave satellite products, TPW perhaps is most widely used to support real-time forecasting applications, as it accurately depicts tropospheric water vapor and its movement. In particular, it has proven to be extremely useful in determining the location, timing, and duration of "atmospheric rivers" which contribute to and sustain flooding events. A multi-sensor approach has been developed and implemented at NESDIS in which passive microwave estimates from multiple satellites and sensors are merged to create a seamless, bTPW product that is more efficient for forecasters to use. Additionally, this product is being enhanced for utilization for television weather forecasters. Examples will be shown to illustrate the roll of atmospheric rivers and contribution to flooding events, and how the bTPW product was used to improve the forecast of these events. Heavy rains associated with land falling tropical cyclones (TC) frequently trigger floods that cause millions of dollars of damage and tremendous loss of lives. To provide observations-based forecast guidance for TC heavy rain, the Tropical Rainfall Potential (TRaP), an extrapolation forecast generated by accumulating rainfall estimates from satellites with microwave sensors as the storm is translated along the forecast track, was originally developed to predict the maximum rainfall at landfall, as well as the spatial pattern of precipitation. More recently, an enhancement has been made to combine the TRaP forecasts from multiple sensors and various start times into an ensemble (eTRaP). The ensemble approach provides not only more accurate quantitative precipitation forecasts, including more skillful maximum rainfall amount and location, it also produces probabilistic forecasts of rainfall exceeding various thresholds that decision makers can use to make critical risk assessments. Examples of the utilization and performance of eTRaP will be given in the presentation.

Ferraro, R.; Zhao, L.; Kuligowski, R. J.; Kusselson, S.; Ma, L.; Kidder, S. Q.; Forsythe, J. M.; Jones, A. S.; Ebert, E. E.; Valenti, E.

2012-12-01

209

Cyber surveillance for flood disasters.  

PubMed

Regional heavy rainfall is usually caused by the influence of extreme weather conditions. Instant heavy rainfall often results in the flooding of rivers and the neighboring low-lying areas, which is responsible for a large number of casualties and considerable property loss. The existing precipitation forecast systems mostly focus on the analysis and forecast of large-scale areas but do not provide precise instant automatic monitoring and alert feedback for individual river areas and sections. Therefore, in this paper, we propose an easy method to automatically monitor the flood object of a specific area, based on the currently widely used remote cyber surveillance systems and image processing methods, in order to obtain instant flooding and waterlogging event feedback. The intrusion detection mode of these surveillance systems is used in this study, wherein a flood is considered a possible invasion object. Through the detection and verification of flood objects, automatic flood risk-level monitoring of specific individual river segments, as well as the automatic urban inundation detection, has become possible. The proposed method can better meet the practical needs of disaster prevention than the method of large-area forecasting. It also has several other advantages, such as flexibility in location selection, no requirement of a standard water-level ruler, and a relatively large field of view, when compared with the traditional water-level measurements using video screens. The results can offer prompt reference for appropriate disaster warning actions in small areas, making them more accurate and effective. PMID:25621609

Lo, Shi-Wei; Wu, Jyh-Horng; Lin, Fang-Pang; Hsu, Ching-Han

2015-01-01

210

ENVIRONMENTAL OUTLOOK, 1977 NATIONAL, REGIONAL AND SECTORAL TRENDS AND FORECASTS 1975, 1985, 1990  

EPA Science Inventory

This document contains projections of residuals from various energy and industrial activities which may enter the environment as an outcome of implementing the President's National Energy Plan (NEP) issued on April 29, 1977. The Strategic Environmental Assessment System (SEAS) wa...

211

Forecasting inflation  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper investigates forecasts of US inflation at the 12-month horizon. The starting point is the conventional unemployment rate Phillips curve, which is examined in a simulated out-of-sample forecasting framework. Inflation forecasts produced by the Phillips curve generally have been more accurate than forecasts based on other macroeconomic variables, including interest rates, money and commodity prices. These forecasts can however

James H. Stock; Mark W. Watson

1999-01-01

212

Flood-inundation maps for the Driftwood River and Sugar Creek near Edinburgh, Indiana  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Digital flood-inundation maps for an 11.2 mile reach of the Driftwood River and a 5.2 mile reach of Sugar Creek, both near Edinburgh, Indiana, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Camp Atterbury Joint Maneuver Training Center, Edinburgh, Indiana. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/, depict estimates of the areal extent of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage 03363000 Driftwood River near Edinburgh, Ind. Current conditions at the USGS streamgage in Indiana may be obtained on the Internet at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/in/nwis/current/?type=flow. In addition, the information has been provided to the National Weather Service (NWS) for incorporation into their Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) flood warning system at http://water.weather.gov/ahps/. The NWS forecasts flood hydrographs at many places that are often collocated at USGS streamgages. That forecasted peak-stage information, also available on the Internet, may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. For this study, flood profiles were computed for the stream reaches by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The model was calibrated using the most current stage-discharge relations at the USGS streamgage 03363000 Driftwood River near Edinburgh, Ind. The hydraulic model was then used to determine elevations throughout the study reaches for nine water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-ft intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from bankfull to nearly the highest recorded water level at the USGS streamgage 03363000 Driftwood River near Edinburgh, Ind. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geospatial digital elevation model (derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data) in order to delineate the area flooded at each water level. The availability of these maps along with real-time information available online regarding current stage from USGS streamgages and forecasted stream stages from the NWS provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures as well as for post flood recovery efforts.

Fowler, Kathleen K.; Kim, Moon H.; Menke, Chad D.

2012-01-01

213

Flash Flood Case Studies  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This module takes the learner through seven case studies of flash flood events that occurred in the conterminous U.S. between 2003 and 2006. The cases covered include: * 30-31 August 2003: Chase & Lyon Counties, KS * 16-17 September 2004: Macon County, NC * 31 July 2006: Santa Catalina Mountains near Tucson, AZ * 25 December 2003: Fire burn area near San Bernardino, CA * 30 August 2004: Urban flash flood in Richmond, VA * 19-20 August 2003: Urban flash flood in Las Vegas, NV * 9 October 2005: Cheshire County, NH This module assists the learner in applying the concepts covered in the foundation topics of the Basic Hydrologic Sciences course. Some of the specific topics pertinent to these cases are the physical characteristics that make a basin prone to flash floods, basin response to precipitation, flash flood guidance (FFG), the relationship between wildfire and flash floods, and the relationship between urban development and flash floods. Related topics brought out in the cases include radar quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE), the National Weather Service Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction (NWS FFMP) products, debris flows, impounded water, and interagency communications. The core foundation topics are recommended prerequisite materials since this module assumes some pre-existing knowledge of hydrologic principles. In particular, the Runoff Processes and Flash Flood Processes modules contain material directly related to these cases.

COMET

2007-06-26

214

Navigating a Path Toward Operational, Short-term, Ensemble Based, Probablistic Streamflow Forecasts  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The National Weather Service (NWS) has federal responsibility for issuing public flood warnings in the United States. Additionally, the NWS has been engaged in longer range water resources forecasts for many years, particularly in the Western U.S. In the past twenty years, longer range forecasts have increasingly incorporated ensemble techniques. Ensemble techniques are attractive because they allow a great deal of flexibility, both temporally and in content. This technique also provides for the influence of additional forcings (i.e. ENSO), through either pre or post processing techniques. More recently, attention has turned to the use of ensemble techniques in the short-term streamflow forecasting process. While considerably more difficult, the development of reliable short-term probabilistic streamflow forecasts has clear application and value for many NWS customers and partners. During flood episodes, expensive mitigation actions are initialed or withheld and critical reservoir management decisions are made in the absence of uncertainty and risk information. Limited emergency services resources and the optimal use of water resources facilities necessitates the development of a risk-based decision making process. The development of reliable short-term probabilistic streamflow forecasts are an essential ingredient in the decision making process. This paper addresses the utility of short-term ensemble streamflow forecasts and the considerations that must be addressed as techniques and operational capabilities are developed. Verification and validation information are discussed from both a scientific and customer perspective. Education and training related to the interpretation and use of ensemble products are also addressed.

Hartman, R. K.; Schaake, J.

2004-12-01

215

Belford proactive flood solutions: scientific evidence to influence local and national policy by multi-purpose runoff management  

Microsoft Academic Search

The increased risk from flooding continues to be of concern to governments all around the world and flood protection is becoming more of a challenge. In the UK, climate change projections indicate more extremes within the weather systems. In addition, there is an increased demand for using land in urban areas beside channels. These developments both put pressure on our

M. Wilkinson; P. F. Quinn; J. Jonczyk

2010-01-01

216

Prediction of a Flash Flood in Complex Terrain. Part II: A Comparison of Flood Discharge Simulations Using Rainfall Input from Radar, a Dynamic Model, and an Automated Algorithmic System.  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Three techniques were employed for the estimation and prediction of precipitation from a thunderstorm that produced a flash flood in the Buffalo Creek watershed located in the mountainous Front Range near Denver, Colorado, on 12 July 1996. The techniques included 1) quantitative precipitation estimation using the National Weather Service's Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler and the National Center for Atmospheric Research's S-band, dual-polarization radars, 2) quantitative precipitation forecasting utilizing a dynamic model, and 3) quantitative precipitation forecasting using an automated algorithmic system for tracking thunderstorms. Rainfall data provided by these various techniques at short timescales (6 min) and at fine spatial resolutions (150 m to 2 km) served as input to a distributed-parameter hydrologic model for analysis of the flash flood. The quantitative precipitation estimates from the weather radar demonstrated their ability to aid in simulating a watershed's response to precipitation forcing from small-scale, convective weather in complex terrain. That is, with the radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates employed as input, the simulated peak discharge was similar to that estimated. The dynamic model showed the most promise in providing a significant forecast lead time for this flash-flood event. The algorithmic system did not show as much skill in comparison with the dynamic model in providing precipitation forcing to the hydrologic model. The discharge forecasts based on the dynamic-model and algorithmic-system inputs point to the need to improve the ability to forecast convective storms, especially if models such as these eventually are to be used in operational flood forecasting.

Yates, David N.; Warner, Thomas T.; Leavesley, George H.

2000-06-01

217

Catchment dynamics and social response during flash floods  

Microsoft Academic Search

The objective of this study is to examine how the current techniques for flash-flood monitoring and forecasting can meet the requirements of the population at risk to evaluate the severity of the flood and anticipate its danger. To this end, we identify the social response time for different social actions in the course of two well studied flash flood events

J. D. Creutin; C. Lutoff; I. Ruin; A. Scolobig; L. Créton-Cazanave

2009-01-01

218

75 FR 35672 - Changes in Flood Elevation Determinations  

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013

...participation in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP...Regulatory Flexibility Act. As flood elevation determinations are...of Subjects in 44 CFR Part 65 Flood insurance, Floodplains, Reporting...March 26, 2010; The Honorable Mike August 2,...

2010-06-23

219

76 FR 76052 - Changes in Flood Elevation Determinations  

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013

...participation in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP...Regulatory Flexibility Act. As flood elevation determinations are...of Subjects in 44 CFR Part 65 Flood insurance, Floodplains, Reporting...September 8, 2011; The Honorable Mike January 13,...

2011-12-06

220

Relationships between Return Period and Flash Flooding in the United States  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oftentimes, a given return period of streamflow (typically a 2- or 5-year flow) is used as a proxy for the onset of a flash flood, indicating bankfull conditions. This information is useful in the context of ungauged basins, where simulated return periods might be available, but there is no stream gauge to measure the discharge. While a given observation of streamflow does not necessarily indicate a flash flood, existing streamflow records are useful in providing long-term, continuous measurements at a point, which can be used to augment databases of flash flood reports submitted by humans. There are a total of 10,106 USGS stream gauges with records dating from Jul 1927 through Sep 2010. Of these gauges, 3,490 have defined stage heights associated to stream bankfull conditions, warning, minor, moderate, and major flood stages. Local National Weather Service offices define these thresholds based on impacts to lives and/or property in coordination with the local emergency management and stakeholder community. This study uses a recently published database of flash floods in the United States to relate observed return periods to flood stages at the stream gauges with NWS-defined flood stages. The relationship between return period and certain geological and climatological factors is explored. Since bankfull conditions are often linked to rules-of-thumb regarding return period, the results have useful implications for those in the forecasting community.

Erlingis, J. M.; Gourley, J. J.; Hong, Y.

2013-12-01

221

Scientific Foundations for Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts for Hydrologic Application in the U.S. National Weather Service  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

This presentation will begin with a review the functional requirements for ensemble precipitation forecasts and the sources of "raw" atmospheric forecast information that are being used experimentally as input to an Ensemble Pre-Processing (EPP) system that produces the required ensemble precipitation forecasts. The EPP can support use of single-value and/or ensemble "raw" atmospheric forecasts from multiple sources and for different forecast periods ranging from less than one-day up to one-year. These "raw" forecasts often have bias and spread problems that the EPP is designed to fix. The current EPP generates ensemble members in a two-step process. The first step is to specify a set of "events" to be predicted. An event is the amount of precipitation that will occur over a specified time period beginning with a prescribed lead time to the event. The available "raw" atmospheric forecast information is used to estimate a probability distribution for each of these events taking into account the climatology of the events and the forecasts as well as their past joint distribution. The second step is to create a set of sample functions (i.e. ensemble members) whose values preserve this set of forecast distributions. Test results suggest that this approach can preserve temporal scale-dependency in the variability of the ensemble members and in the forecast uncertainty associated with the members. Some of the many science issues that need to be explored, not only to test and improve the EPP algorithms but to make the best possible use of them with the information that is currently available, will be identified.

Schaake, J.

2008-12-01

222

Weather Forecasting  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Weather Forecasting is one of several online guides produced by the Weather World 2010 project at the University of Illinois. These guides use multimedia technology and the dynamic capabilities of the web to incorporate text, colorful diagrams, animations, computer simulations, audio, and video to introduce topics and concepts in the atmospheric sciences. This module introduces forecast methods and the numerous factors one must consider when attempting to make an accurate forecast. Sections include forecasting methods for different scenarios, surface features affecting forecasting, forecasting temperatures for day and night, and factors for forecasting precipitation.

2010-01-01

223

Uncertainties in Weather Forecast – Reasons and Handling  

Microsoft Academic Search

\\u000a The generation of precipitation forecasts by means of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is increasingly becoming an\\u000a important input for hydrological models. Over the past decades the quality and spatial resolution of meteorological numerical\\u000a models has been drastically improved, which makes it now possible to incorporate high-resolution NWP output directly into\\u000a flood forecasting systems. The quality of forecasted precipitation, however,

Dirk Schüttemeyer; Clemens Simmer

224

Ensemble Streamflow Forecast Improvements in NYC's Operations Support Tool  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Like most other water supply utilities, New York City's Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) has operational challenges associated with drought and wet weather events. During drought conditions, DEP must maintain water supply reliability to 9 million customers as well as meet environmental release requirements downstream of its reservoirs. During and after wet weather events, DEP must maintain turbidity compliance in its unfiltered Catskill and Delaware reservoir systems and minimize spills to mitigate downstream flooding. Proactive reservoir management - such as release restrictions to prepare for a drought or preventative drawdown in advance of a large storm - can alleviate negative impacts associated with extreme events. It is important for water managers to understand the risks associated with proactive operations so unintended consequences such as endangering water supply reliability with excessive drawdown prior to a storm event are minimized. Probabilistic hydrologic forecasts are a critical tool in quantifying these risks and allow water managers to make more informed operational decisions. DEP has recently completed development of an Operations Support Tool (OST) that integrates ensemble streamflow forecasts, real-time observations, and a reservoir system operations model into a user-friendly graphical interface that allows its water managers to take robust and defensible proactive measures in the face of challenging system conditions. Since initial development of OST was first presented at the 2011 AGU Fall Meeting, significant improvements have been made to the forecast system. First, the monthly AR1 forecasts ('Hirsch method') were upgraded with a generalized linear model (GLM) utilizing historical daily correlations ('Extended Hirsch method' or 'eHirsch'). The development of eHirsch forecasts improved predictive skill over the Hirsch method in the first week to a month from the forecast date and produced more realistic hydrographs on the tail end of high flow periods. These improvements allowed DEP to more effectively manage water quality control and spill mitigation operations immediately after storm events. Later on, post-processed hydrologic forecasts from the National Weather Service (NWS) including the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) and the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) were implemented into OST. These forecasts further increased the predictive skill over the initial statistical models as current basin conditions (e.g. soil moisture, snowpack) and meteorological forecasts (with HEFS) are now explicitly represented. With the post-processed HEFS forecasts, DEP may now truly quantify impacts associated with wet weather events on the horizon, rather than relying on statistical representations of current hydrologic trends. This presentation will highlight the benefits of the improved forecasts using examples from actual system operations.

Wang, L.; Weiss, W. J.; Porter, J.; Schaake, J. C.; Day, G. N.; Sheer, D. P.

2013-12-01

225

Belford proactive flood solutions: scientific evidence to influence local and national policy by multi-purpose runoff management  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The increased risk from flooding continues to be of concern to governments all around the world and flood protection is becoming more of a challenge. In the UK, climate change projections indicate more extremes within the weather systems. In addition, there is an increased demand for using land in urban areas beside channels. These developments both put pressure on our flood defences and there is a need for new solutions to managing flood risk. There is currently support within the England and Wales Environment Agency for sustainable flood management solutions such as storage ponds, wetlands, beaver dams and willow riparian features (referred to here as Runoff Attenuation Features, or RAFs). However the effectiveness of RAFs are not known at the catchment scale since they have only really been trailed at the plot scale. These types of mitigation measure can offer benefits to water quality and create ecological habitats. The village of Belford, situated in the Belford Burn catchment (6km2), northern England, has suffered from numerous flood events. In addition, the catchment suffers from water quality issues within the channel and high sediment loads are having an impact on the ecology of the nearby estuary. There was a desire by the Local Environment Agency Flood Levy team to deliver an alternative catchment-based solution to the problem. With funding from the Northumbria Regional Flood Defence Committee, the Environment Agency North East Local Levy team and Newcastle University have created a partnership to address the flood problem trailing soft engineered RAF’s at the catchment scale. The partnership project, “Belford proactive flood solutions” is testing novel techniques in reducing flood risk in small sub-catchments for the Environment Agency. The project provides the information needed to understand whether the multi-functional mitigation measures are working at the sub-catchment scale. Data suggest that the mitigation measures present have delayed the overall travel time of the flood peak in the catchment by 33%. The current maximum flood storage capacity of all the features stands at around 15,000 m3. The evidence also suggests that a dam like in-stream mitigation measure can significantly reduce sediment load. Other benefits of some mitigation features include large increase in the population of water voles over the past two years. The scheme also acts as a demonstration site for interested stakeholders where they can learn about this approach to flood risk management and see the multipurpose benefits. As the project has progressed and lessons have been learnt, it has been possible to develop a runoff management toolkit for implementing these mitigation measures in other catchments of similar size. Already, the local Environment Agency has utilised the tools and recently applied similar mitigation measures to other catchments. On-going modelling exercises in the project are using the data to explore the up-scaling of the features to larger catchments.

Wilkinson, M.; Quinn, P. F.; Jonczyk, J.

2010-12-01

226

Performance and robustness of probabilistic river forecasts computed with quantile regression based on multiple independent variables in the North Central USA  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

This study further develops the method of quantile regression (QR) to predict exceedance probabilities of flood stages by post-processing forecasts. Using data from the 82 river gages, for which the National Weather Service's North Central River Forecast Center issues forecasts daily, this is the first QR application to US American river gages. Archived forecasts for lead times up to six days from 2001-2013 were analyzed. Earlier implementations of QR used the forecast itself as the only independent variable (Weerts et al., 2011; López López et al., 2014). This study adds the rise rate of the river stage in the last 24 and 48 h and the forecast error 24 and 48 h ago to the QR model. Including those four variables significantly improved the forecasts, as measured by the Brier Skill Score (BSS). Mainly, the resolution increases, as the original QR implementation already delivered high reliability. Combining the forecast with the other four variables results in much less favorable BSSs. Lastly, the forecast performance does not depend on the size of the training dataset, but on the year, the river gage, lead time and event threshold that are being forecast. We find that each event threshold requires a separate model configuration or at least calibration.

Hoss, F.; Fischbeck, P. S.

2014-10-01

227

Seasonally Flooded Grasslands -Grand CaymanSeasonally Flooded Grasslands -Grand Cayman 0 1 2 3 4 50.5  

E-print Network

Seasonally Flooded Grasslands - Grand CaymanSeasonally Flooded Grasslands - Grand Cayman 0 1 2 3 4 Protected Areas Seasonally Flooded Grasslands V.A.1.N.g. #12;Seasonally Flooded Grasslands - Little CaymanSeasonally Flooded Grasslands - Little Cayman 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.50.25 Kilometers Cayman Islands National Biodiversity

Exeter, University of

228

Section "Informatics" MULTICRITERIA ANALYSIS APPLIED TO A FLOOD EVENT ON RIVER  

E-print Network

. The flood disaster management is highly dependent on early information and needs forecasts and data from disaster management is highly dependent on early information and needs forecasts and data from the river

Mustakerov, Ivan

229

Teaching floods and flooding quantitatively  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This page helps faculty communicate essential ideas that students struggle with in terms of floods and flooding. It takes into account the concepts of probability and recurrence interval and discusses hydrologic terminology, relations between discharge and stage, and the meaning of the '100 year flood.'

Baer, Eric

2007-01-01

230

The WMO Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project (CIFDP)  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coastal inundations are an increasing threat to the lives and livelihoods of people living in low-lying, highly-populated coastal areas. According to the World Bank Report 2005, at least 2.6 million people have drowned in coastal inundation, particularly caused by storm surges, over the last 200 years. The purpose of the WMO Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project (CIFDP) is to meet the challenges of coastal communities' safety and to support sustainable development through enhancing coastal inundation forecasting and warning systems at the regional scale. Upon completion of national sub-projects of CIFDP, countries will implement an operational system for integrated coastal inundation forecasting and warning, providing an objective basis for coastal disaster (flooding) management; contributing to saving lives, reducing loss of livelihood and property, and enhancing resilience and sustainability in coastal communities. Operation and maintenance of the CIF system would be the responsibility of national operational agencies with a mandate for coastal inundation warnings. The main focus of the CIFDP will be to facilitate the development of efficient forecasting and warning systems for coastal inundation based on robust science and observations: The presentation will describe the scope and the technical framework for CIFDP and describe its implementation in the various sub-projects presently underway.

Lee, Boram; Resio, Don; Swail, Val; Fakhruddin, Shm; Horsburgh, Kevin

2014-05-01

231

Climate change and plant community composition in national parks of the southwestern US: forecasting regional, long-term effects to meet management needs  

USGS Publications Warehouse

The National Park Service (NPS) faces tremendous management challenges in the future as climates alter the abundance and distribution of plant species. These challenges will be especially daunting in the southwestern U.S., where large increases in aridity are forecasted. The expected reduction in water availability will negatively affect plant growth and may result in shifts of plant community composition. Synthesis of climate and plant vital sign data from National Park Service Inventory and Monitoring (I&M) networks is essential to provide park managers with important insights into contemporary climate responses and a sound basis to forecast likely future changes at species, community, and ecosystem scales. We describe a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and NPS in which we have conducted regional cross-site assessments across the Sonoran and Chihuahuan Deserts to understand plant species responses to past climate and forecast future plant community composition. We also determined whether a widely-implemented vegetation monitoring protocol in these deserts is suitable to track long-term vegetation changes caused by climate and other factors. Our results from these analyses are intended to help natural resource managers identify and prepare for changes in plant cover and community composition and evaluate the efficacy of current monitoring programs.

Munson, Seth M.; Belnap, Jayne; Webb, Robert H.; Hubbard, J. Andrew; Reiser, M. Hildegard; Gallo, Kirsten

2014-01-01

232

Distributed quantitative precipitation forecasts combining information from radar and numerical weather prediction model outputs  

E-print Network

Applications of distributed Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) range from flood forecasting to transportation. Obtaining QPF is acknowledged to be one of the most challenging areas in hydrology and meteorology. ...

Ganguly, Auroop Ratan

2002-01-01

233

QUNATITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTING USING CLOUD-BASED TECHNIQUES ON AVHRR DATA  

Microsoft Academic Search

Tri-yearly recurrence of flooding in Malaysia has made floods the most important significant natural disaster in the country in terms of cost and damage to property. Many hydrological and hydraulic flood models have been implemented but are yet to meet the requirement of a near real-time flood forecasting. This study envisage the \\

L Billa; S. B. Mansor; A. R. Mahamud

234

Flood risk awareness during the 2011 floods in the central United States: showcasing the importance of hydrologic data and interagency collaboration  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Floods have long had a major impact on society and the environment, evidenced by the more than 1,500 federal disaster declarations since 1952 that were associated with flooding. Calendar year 2011 was an epic year for floods in the United States, from the flooding on the Red River of the North in late spring to the Ohio, Mississippi, and Missouri River basin floods in the spring and summer to the flooding caused by Hurricane Irene along the eastern seaboard in August. As a society, we continually seek to reduce flood impacts, with these efforts loosely grouped into two categories: mitigation and risk awareness. Mitigation involves such activities as flood assessment, flood control implementation, and regulatory activities such as storm water and floodplain ordinances. Risk awareness ranges from issuance of flood forecasts and warnings to education of lay audiences about the uncertainties inherent in assessing flood probability and risk. This paper concentrates on the issue of flood risk awareness, specifically the importance of hydrologic data and good interagency communication in providing accurate and timely flood forecasts to maximize risk awareness. The 2011 floods in the central United States provide a case study of the importance of hydrologic data and the value of proper, timely, and organized communication and collaboration around the collection and dissemination of that hydrologic data in enhancing the effectiveness of flood forecasting and flood risk awareness.

Holmes, Robert R.; Schwein, Noreen O.; Shadie, Charles E.

2012-01-01

235

From flood management systems to flood resilient systems: integration of flood resilient technologies  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flooding has always been a major risk world-wide. Humans chose to live and develop settlements close to water (rivers, seas) due to the resources water brings, i.e. food, energy, capacity to economically transport persons and goods, and recreation. However, the risk from flooding, including pluvial flooding, often offsets these huge advantages. Floods sometimes have terrible consequences from both a human and economic point of view. The permanence and growth of urban areas in flood-prone zones despite these risks is a clear indication of the choices of concerned human groups. The observed growing concentration of population along the sea shore, the increase of urban population worldwide, the exponential growth of the world population and possibly climate change are factors that confirm flood will remain a major issue for the next decades. Flood management systems are designed and implemented to cope with such situations. In spite of frequent events, lessons look to be difficult to draw out and progresses are rather slow. The list of potential triggers to improve flood management systems is nevertheless well established: information, education, awareness raising, alert, prevention, protection, feedback from events, ... Many disciplines are concerned which cover a wide range of soft and hard sciences. A huge amount of both printed and electronic literature is available. Regulations are abundant. In spite of all these potentially favourable elements, similar questions spring up after each new significant event: • Was the event forecast precise enough? • Was the alert system efficient? • Why were buildings built in identified flood prone areas? • Why did the concerned population not follow instructions? • Why did the dike break? • What should we do to avoid it happens again? • What about damages evaluation, wastes and debris evacuation, infrastructures and buildings repair, activity recovery, temporary relocation of inhabitants, health concerns, insurance concerns, water-resistant materials, vulnerability assessment ? Flood resilient system (FReS) concept has been proposed as a new framework to address flood situations. Such systems intend to better approach such situations from a holistic point of view. FReS encompass ecologic, spatial, structural, social, disaster relief and flood risk aspects. FReS design and implementation conditions have been addressed by the FP7 SMARTeST (Smart Resilience Technology, Systems and Tools) project. The focus of this Project on the use of available and innovative communication, forecasting and flood protection technologies leads to an original contribution which highlights both the scope and the limits of this technology driven approach. These reflexions contribute to the elaboration of guidelines for the design of FReS.

Salagnac, J.-L.; Diez, J.; Tourbier, J.

2012-04-01

236

Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems  

E-print Network

Lewis Poulin Implementation and Operational Services Section Canadian Meteorological Centre, Dorval, Qc National Prediction Operations Division ICEBO 2013, Montreal, Qc October 10 2013 Version 2013-09-27 Weather Forecast Data An Important... and weather information ? Numerical weather forecast production 101 ? From deterministic to probabilistic forecasts ? Some MSC weather forecast (NWP) datasets ? Finding the appropriate data for the appropriate forecast ? Preparing for probabilistic...

Poulin, L.

2013-01-01

237

Verification of Ensemble Forecasts for the New York City Operations Support Tool  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The New York City water supply system operated by the Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) serves nine million people. It covers 2,000 square miles of portions of the Catskill, Delaware, and Croton watersheds, and it includes nineteen reservoirs and three controlled lakes. DEP is developing an Operations Support Tool (OST) to support its water supply operations and planning activities. OST includes historical and real-time data, a model of the water supply system complete with operating rules, and lake water quality models developed to evaluate alternatives for managing turbidity in the New York City Catskill reservoirs. OST will enable DEP to manage turbidity in its unfiltered system while satisfying its primary objective of meeting the City's water supply needs, in addition to considering secondary objectives of maintaining ecological flows, supporting fishery and recreation releases, and mitigating downstream flood peaks. The current version of OST relies on statistical forecasts of flows in the system based on recent observed flows. To improve short-term decision making, plans are being made to transition to National Weather Service (NWS) ensemble forecasts based on hydrologic models that account for short-term weather forecast skill, longer-term climate information, as well as the hydrologic state of the watersheds and recent observed flows. To ensure that the ensemble forecasts are unbiased and that the ensemble spread reflects the actual uncertainty of the forecasts, a statistical model has been developed to post-process the NWS ensemble forecasts to account for hydrologic model error as well as any inherent bias and uncertainty in initial model states, meteorological data and forecasts. The post-processor is designed to produce adjusted ensemble forecasts that are consistent with the DEP historical flow sequences that were used to develop the system operating rules. A set of historical hindcasts that is representative of the real-time ensemble forecasts is needed to verify that the post-processed forecasts are unbiased, statistically reliable, and preserve the skill inherent in the "raw" NWS ensemble forecasts. A verification procedure and set of metrics will be presented that provide an objective assessment of ensemble forecasts. The procedure will be applied to both raw ensemble hindcasts and to post-processed ensemble hindcasts. The verification metrics will be used to validate proper functioning of the post-processor and to provide a benchmark for comparison of different types of forecasts. For example, current NWS ensemble forecasts are based on climatology, using each historical year to generate a forecast trace. The NWS Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS) under development will utilize output from both the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and the Climate Forecast System (CFS). Incorporating short-term meteorological forecasts and longer-term climate forecast information should provide sharper, more accurate forecasts. Hindcasts from HEFS will enable New York City to generate verification results to validate the new forecasts and further fine-tune system operating rules. Project verification results will be presented for different watersheds across a range of seasons, lead times, and flow levels to assess the quality of the current ensemble forecasts.

Day, G.; Schaake, J. C.; Thiemann, M.; Draijer, S.; Wang, L.

2012-12-01

238

Verification of Advances in a Coupled Snow-runoff Modeling Framework for Operational Streamflow Forecasts  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) River Forecast Centers (RFCs) issue hydrologic forecasts related to flood events, reservoir operations for water supply, streamflow regulation, and recreation on the nation's streams and rivers. The RFCs use the National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) for streamflow forecasting which relies on a coupled snow model (i.e. SNOW17) and rainfall-runoff model (i.e. SAC-SMA) in snow-dominated regions of the US. Errors arise in various steps of the forecasting system from input data, model structure, model parameters, and initial states. The goal of the current study is to undertake verification of potential improvements in the SNOW17-SAC-SMA modeling framework developed for operational streamflow forecasts. We undertake verification for a range of parameters sets (i.e. RFC, DREAM (Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis)) as well as a data assimilation (DA) framework developed for the coupled models. Verification is also undertaken for various initial conditions to observe the influence of variability in initial conditions on the forecast. The study basin is the North Fork America River Basin (NFARB) located on the western side of the Sierra Nevada Mountains in northern California. Hindcasts are verified using both deterministic (i.e. Nash Sutcliffe efficiency, root mean square error, and joint distribution) and probabilistic (i.e. reliability diagram, discrimination diagram, containing ratio, and Quantile plots) statistics. Our presentation includes comparison of the performance of different optimized parameters and the DA framework as well as assessment of the impact associated with the initial conditions used for streamflow forecasts for the NFARB.

Barik, M. G.; Hogue, T. S.; Franz, K. J.; He, M.

2011-12-01

239

Aurora Forecast  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

The Aurora Forecast from the Geophysical Institute at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks, provides aurora activity predictions for different locations around the world. Predictions are available as maps or as audio files. Users select a geographical area, and they are presented with a forecast map with the approximate Universal Time of greatest activity for the selected longitude about an hour before local geomagnetic midnight. Also included are links to information about the forecasts, how to interpret the forecasts, geomagnetic activity, and aurora links.

240

Stream Floods  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This exercise is designed to explore the nature of floods and flood prediction. Prediction of flooding relies heavily upon statistical techniques based on historical records of stream behavior. This series of exercises first reviews basic concepts in flood prediction such as calculating the Recurrence Interval (RI), which is the average interval in years between occurrences of two discharges of equal magnitude; and the Weibull equation, which calculates the probability that a given discharge will be exceeded in any particular year. The student then accesses historical data on U.S. stream flow and performs these calculations independently.

Huff, Warren

2000-11-03

241

Weather Forecasting  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Students consider how weather forecasting plays an important part in their daily lives. They learn about the history of weather forecasting — from old weather proverbs to modern forecasting equipment — and how improvements in weather technology have saved lives by providing advance warning of natural hazards.

Integrated Teaching and Learning Program,

242

Flood Maps  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This map, created by combining data from Google Maps and NASA, shows which land areas would be flooded by sea level rises between 0 and 14 meters. The NASA data set used is only of limited reliability, but the map provides a fascinating view of the consequences of rising sea levels, and the consequent floods of costal areas.

Tingle, Alex; Nasa; Maps, Google; Self-Published

243

2011 Spring Flood  

USGS Multimedia Gallery

Left to Right: George Arcement, Phil Turnipseed USGS Louisiana Water Science Center Director George Arcement and USGS National Wetlands Research Center Director Phil Turnipseed are coordinating USGS efforts in Louisiana to respond to the record-setting 2011 flood. Although fairly new to their posit...

244

Flood Estimation at Ungauged Sites Using a New Hybrid Model  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

As flood forecasting in ungauged basins has been an area of extensive research, new techniques have been introduced to minimize the forecast errors and to issue more accurate forecasts. The use of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) in flood forecasting is new and still in the evolution stage. In this study, MLP and Elman networks and also a new nonlinear regression model are applied and combined with each other for T-year flood estimation in western basins of Urmia Lake. At first, these networks used physiographic and climatic data selected from the regression model, to train. Finally, the best structure of the networks is chosen based on correlation coefficient between observed and estimated discharges. In order to train the models well, the return period variable is considered as one of the input variables of them. The obtained results have proved the ability of the hybrid model to predict T-year flood events and the effect of networks types on prediction precision.

Hassanpour Kashani, Mahsa; Montaseri, Majid; Lotfollahi Yaghin, Mohammad Ali

245

Program for Prediction, Prevention and Mitigation of Forest Fire and Flood risk in Albania  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The rationale lying behind the program jointly managed by the Albanian and the Italian Civil protections is that of strengthening the Albanian National System for the prediction and prevention of forest fires and flooding. This is an initiative of the Italian government aimed at implementing in Albania the systems currently used by the Italian National "Functional Centers". The "Functional Centers" are the Operations Centers in charge for assessment forecasting, and surveillance of natural and man-made risks and represent a key component of the Italian Civil Protection System. CIMA Foundation is acting in its capacity as Executing Agency of the Italian Department of Civil Protection (DPC) in the framework of the International Cooperation between the two Countries. CIMA Foundation has been founded by DPC and the University of Genoa with the aim of advancing the scientific research and technical development, high profile engineering and environmental science education, whose ultimate goal is to guarantee public health and safety as well as to safeguard land and sea ecosystems. The "Program for Prediction, Prevention and Mitigation of Forest Fire and Flood risk in Albania" addresses four objectives: Object 1- to establish a National Center for Forecasting and Monitoring of Natural Risk/National Functional Center, a National Operations Center and two Regional Operations Centers; Object 2 to design and to implement an intensive training programme for risk assessment and management; Object 3 - to adapt the Italian Early Warning System for forest fires to the whole Albanian territory; Object 4 - to adapt the Italian Early Warning System for flooding to the Buna river and the Shkodra region, the latter recently affected by two disastrous floods.

Centoducati, C.; D'Angelo, L.; Deda, M.; Ferraris, L.; Fiori, E.; Gjonaj, M.; Kelmendi, S.; Massabò, M.; Olli, A.; Siccardi, F.

2012-04-01

246

Urbanization, climate change and flood policy in the United States  

Microsoft Academic Search

The average annual cost of floods in the United States has been estimated at about $2 billion (current US dollars). The federal\\u000a government, through the creation of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), has assumed responsibility for mitigating\\u000a the societal and economic impacts of flooding by establishing a national policy that provides subsidized flood insurance.\\u000a Increased flood costs during the

Alexandros A. Ntelekos; Michael Oppenheimer; James A. Smith; Andrew J. Miller

2010-01-01

247

Evaluating the Performance of a Coupled Distributed Hydrologic - Hydraulic Model for Flash Flood Modeling Using Multiple Precipitation Data Sources  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flash floods are considered one of the most hazardous natural disasters, which kills thousands of people and causes billions of US dollar economic damages annually world-wide. Forecasting flash floods to provide accurate warnings in a timely manner is still challenging. At the Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing (CHRS) at the University of California, Irvine, we have been developing a coupled high resolution distributed hydrologic-hydraulic system for flash flood modeling which has been successfully tested for some selected areas in the U.S. and has potential to be implemented in global scale. The system employs the National Weather Service's distributed hydrologic model (HL-RDHM) as a rainfall-runoff generator, and a high-resolution hydraulic model (BreZo) for simulating the channel and flood-plain flows realistically. In this research, we evaluate the system for flash flood warning using multiple precipitation sources (gauge, radar and satellite and forecast). A flash flood event occurring on June 11, 2010 in the Upper Little Missouri River watershed in Arkansas is used as a case study. The catchment was delineated into 123 sub-catchments based on the 10m Digital Elevation Model (DEM) topography data from USGS. From HL-RDHM surface runoff, 123 hydrographs can be derived and connected as inputs to BreZo. The system was calibrated using NEXRAD Stage IV radar-based rainfall by tuning the roughness parameter in BreZo to best match the USGS discharge observation at the catchment outlet. The results show good agreement with the USGS gauge flow measurement (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient = 0.91) when using Stage IV data. The system is under investigation with satellite-based precipitation data, rain gauge and Global Forecast System (GFS) data and will be reported in the presentation.

Nguyen, P.; Sorooshian, S.; Hsu, K.; AghaKouchak, A.; Sanders, B. F.

2013-12-01

248

Assessment of flash flood warning procedures  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Assessment of four alternate flash flood warning procedures was conducted to ascertain their suitability for forecast operations using radar-rainfall imagery. The procedures include (1) areal mean basin effective rainfall, (2) unit hydrograph, (3) time-area, and (4) 2-D numerical modeling. The Buffalo Creek flash flood of July 12, 1996, was used as a case study for application of each of the procedures. A significant feature of the Buffalo Creek event was a forest fire that occurred a few months before the flood and significantly affected watershed runoff characteristics. Objectives were to assess the applicability of the procedures for watersheds having spatial and temporal scale similarities to Buffalo Creek, to compare their technical characteristics, and to consider forecaster usability. Geographic information system techniques for hydrologic database development and flash flood potential computations are illustrated. Generalizations of the case study results are offered relative to their suitability for flash flood forecasting operations. Although all four methods have relative advantages, their application to the Buffalo Creek event resulted in mixed performance. Failure of any method was due primarily to uncertainties of the land surface response (i.e., burn area imperviousness). Results underscore the need for model calibration; a difficult requirement for real-time forecasting.

Johnson, Lynn E.

2000-01-01

249

Modelling and forecasting snowmelt floods for operational forecasting in Finland  

Microsoft Academic Search

A modified version of HBV-3 model is in operational use on nine river basins ranging from 300 to 30 000 km2 in Finland. The snowmelt model used is a modified degree-day method with temperature and precipi­ tation as input data. For one experimental area (21 km2) different types of snowmelt models are tested including degree-day models, energy balance models and

BERTEL VEHVILAINEN

250

Urban flooding and Resilience: concepts and needs  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

During the recent years, a growing interest for resilience has been expressed in the natural disaster mitigation area and especially in the flood related events. The European Union, under the Seventh Framework Programme (FP7), has initiated several research initiatives in order to explore this concept especially for the urban environments. Under urban resilience is underlined the ability of system potentially exposed to hazard to resist, respond, recover and reflect up to stage which is enough to preserve level of functioning and structure. Urban system can be resilient to lot of different hazards. Urban resilience is defined as the degree to which cities are able to tolerate some disturbance before reorganizing around a new set of structures and processes (Holling 1973, De Bruijn 2005). The United Nation's International strategy for Disaster Reductions has defined resilience as "the capacity of a system, community or society potentially exposed to hazards to adapt, by resisting or changing in order to reach and maintain an acceptable level of functioning and structure. This is determined by the degree to which the social system is capable of organizing itself to increase this capacity for learning from past disasters for better future protection and to improve risk reduction measures."(UN/ISDR 2004). According to that, system should be able to accept the hazard and be able to recover up to condition that provides acceptable operational level of city structure and population during and after hazard event. Main elements of urban system are built environment and population. Physical characteristic of built environment and social characteristic of population have to be examined in order to evaluate resilience. Therefore presenting methodology for assessing flood resilience in urban areas has to be one of the focal points for the exposed cities. Strategies under flood management planning related to resilience of urban systems are usually regarding controlling runoff volume, increasing capacity of drainage systems, spatial planning, building regulations, etc. Resilience also considers resilience of population to floods and it's measured with time. Assessment of resilience that is focused on population is following bottom-up approach starting from individual and then assessing community level. Building resilience involves also contribution of social networks, increasing response capacity of communities, self-organization, learning and education and cheering adaptation culture. Measures for improving social side of resilience covers: raising public awareness, implementation of flood forecasting and warning, emergency response planning and training, sharing information, education and communication. Most of these aspects are analyzed with the CORFU FP7 project. Collaborative Research on Flood Resilience in Urban areas (CORFU) is a major project involving 17 European and Asian institutions, funded by a grant from the European Commission under the Seventh Framework Programme. The overall aim of CORFU is to enable European and Asian partners to learn from each other through joint investigation, development, implementation and dissemination of short to medium term strategies that will enable more scientifically sound management of the consequences of urban flooding in the future and to develop resilience strategies according to each situation. The CORFU project looks at advanced and novel strategies and provide adequate measures for improved flood management in cities. The differences in urban flooding problems in Asia and in Europe range from levels of economic development, infrastructure age, social systems and decision making processes, to prevailing drainage methods, seasonality of rainfall patterns and climate change trends. The study cases are, in Europe, the cities of Hamburg, Barcelona and Nice, and in Asia, Beijing, Dhaka, Mumbai, Taipei, Seoul and Incheon.

Gourbesville, Ph.

2012-04-01

251

Introduction to Ensembles: Forecasting Hurricane Sandy  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This module provides an introduction to ensemble forecast systems with an operational case study of Hurricane Sandy. The module concentrates on models from NCEP and FNMOC available to forecasters in the U.S. Navy, including NAEFS (North American Ensemble Forecast System), and NUOPC (National Unified Operational Prediction Capability). Probabilistic forecasts of winds and waves developed from these ensemble forecast systems are applied to a ship transit and coastal resource protection. Lessons integrated in the case study provide information on ensemble statistics, products, bias correction and verification. Additional lessons address multimodel ensembles, extreme events, and automated forecasting.

Comet

2013-03-28

252

Estimated flood-inundation mapping for the Lower Blue River in Kansas City, Missouri, 2003-2005  

USGS Publications Warehouse

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the city of Kansas City, Missouri, began a study in 2003 of the lower Blue River in Kansas City, Missouri, from Gregory Boulevard to the mouth at the Missouri River to determine the estimated extent of flood inundation in the Blue River valley from flooding on the lower Blue River and from Missouri River backwater. Much of the lower Blue River flood plain is covered by industrial development. Rapid development in the upper end of the watershed has increased the volume of runoff, and thus the discharge of flood events for the Blue River. Modifications to the channel of the Blue River began in late 1983 in response to the need for flood control. By 2004, the channel had been widened and straightened from the mouth to immediately downstream from Blue Parkway to convey a 30-year flood. A two-dimensional depth-averaged flow model was used to simulate flooding within a 2-mile study reach of the Blue River between 63rd Street and Blue Parkway. Hydraulic simulation of the study reach provided information for the design and performance of proposed hydraulic structures and channel improvements and for the production of estimated flood-inundation maps and maps representing an areal distribution of water velocity, both magnitude and direction. Flood profiles of the Blue River were developed between Gregory Boulevard and 63rd Street from stage elevations calculated from high water marks from the flood of May 19, 2004; between 63rd Street and Blue Parkway from two-dimensional hydraulic modeling conducted for this study; and between Blue Parkway and the mouth from an existing one-dimensional hydraulic model by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Twelve inundation maps were produced at 2-foot intervals for Blue Parkway stage elevations from 750 to 772 feet. Each map is associated with National Weather Service flood-peak forecast locations at 63rd Street, Blue Parkway, Stadium Drive, U.S. Highway 40, 12th Street, and the Missouri River at the Hannibal railroad bridge in Kansas City. The National Weather Service issues peak-stage forecasts for these locations during times of flooding. Missouri River backwater inundation profiles were developed using interpolated Missouri River stage elevations at the mouth of the Blue River. Twelve backwater-inundation maps were produced at 2-foot intervals for the mouth of the Blue River from 730.9 to 752.9. To provide public access to the information presented in this report, a World Wide Web site (http://mo.water.usgs.gov/indep/kelly/blueriver/index.htm) was created that displays the results of two-dimensional modeling between 63rd Street and Blue Parkway, estimated flood-inundation maps, estimated backwater-inundation maps, and the latest gage heights and National Weather Service stage forecast for each forecast location within the study area. In addition, the full text of this report, all tables, and all plates are available for download at http://pubs.water.usgs.gov/sir2006-5089.

Kelly, Brian P.; Rydlund, Paul H.

2006-01-01

253

Spatial Forecast Verification Eric Gilleland  

E-print Network

Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research Co-authors: D. Ahijevych, B.G. Brown, B. Casati, and E.E. Ebert 2010 ASP Colloquium #12;Spatial Forecast Verification Methods Inter-Comparison Project (ICP) #12

Gilleland, Eric

254

Flood inundation maps for the Wabash and Eel Rivers at Logansport, Indiana  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Digital flood-inundation maps for an 8.3-mile reach of the Wabash River and a 7.6-mile reach of the Eel River at Logansport, Indiana (Ind.), were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Indiana Office of Community and Rural Affairs. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/, depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at USGS streamgage Wabash River at Logansport, Ind. (sta. no. 03329000) and USGS streamgage Eel River near Logansport, Ind. (sta. no. 03328500). Current conditions for estimating near-real-time areas of inundation using USGS streamgage information may be obtained on the Internet at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/. In addition, information has been provided to the National Weather Service (NWS) for incorporation into their Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) flood warning system http:/water.weather.gov/ahps/). The NWS forecasts flood hydrographs at many places that are often colocated with USGS streamgages. NWS-forecasted peak-stage information may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. For this study, flood profiles were computed for the stream reaches by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The hydraulic model was calibrated by using the most current stage-discharge relations at USGS streamgages 03329000, Wabash River at Logansport, Ind., and 03328500, Eel River near Logansport, Ind. The calibrated hydraulic model was then used to determine five water-surface profiles for flood stage at 1-foot intervals referenced to the Wabash River streamgage datum, and four water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-foot intervals referenced to the Eel River streamgage datum. The stages range from bankfull to approximately the highest stages that have occurred since 1967 when three flood control dams were built upstream of Logansport, Ind. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system (GIS) digital elevation model (DEM, derived from Light Detection and Ranging [lidar] data having a 0.37-foot vertical accuracy and 3.9-foot horizontal resolution) in order to delineate the area flooded at each stage. The availability of these maps, along with information available on the Internet regarding current stages from the USGS streamgages at Logansport, Ind., and forecasted stream stages from the NWS, provides emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for post flood recovery efforts.

Fowler, Kathleen K.

2014-01-01

255

Weather Forecasting  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This activity (on page 2 of the PDF) is a full inquiry investigation into meteorology and forecasting. Learners will research weather folklore, specifically looking for old-fashioned ways of predicting the weather. Then, they'll record observations of these predictors along with readings from their own homemade barometer, graphing the correct predictions for analysis. Relates to linked video, DragonflyTV: Forecasting.

2012-06-26

256

Towards real-time eruption forecasting in the Auckland Volcanic Field: application of BET_EF during the New Zealand National Disaster Exercise `Ruaumoko'  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF) is a young basaltic field that lies beneath the urban area of Auckland, New Zealand’s largest city. Over the past 250,000 years the AVF has produced at least 49 basaltic centers; the last eruption was only 600 years ago. In recognition of the high risk associated with a possible future eruption in Auckland, the New Zealand government ran Exercise Ruaumoko in March 2008, a test of New Zealand’s nation-wide preparedness for responding to a major disaster resulting from a volcanic eruption in Auckland City. The exercise scenario was developed in secret, and covered the period of precursory activity up until the eruption. During Exercise Ruaumoko we adapted a recently developed statistical code for eruption forecasting, namely BET_EF (Bayesian Event Tree for Eruption Forecasting), to independently track the unrest evolution and to forecast the most likely onset time, location and style of the initial phase of the simulated eruption. The code was set up before the start of the exercise by entering reliable information on the past history of the AVF as well as the monitoring signals expected in the event of magmatic unrest and an impending eruption. The average probabilities calculated by BET_EF during Exercise Ruaumoko corresponded well to the probabilities subjectively (and independently) estimated by the advising scientists (differences of few percentage units), and provided a sound forecast of the timing (before the event, the eruption probability reached 90%) and location of the eruption. This application of BET_EF to a volcanic field that has experienced no historical activity and for which otherwise limited prior information is available shows its versatility and potential usefulness as a tool to aid decision-making for a wide range of volcano types. Our near real-time application of BET_EF during Exercise Ruaumoko highlighted its potential to clarify and possibly optimize decision-making procedures in a future AVF eruption crisis, and as a rational starting point for discussions in a scientific advisory group. It also stimulated valuable scientific discussion around how a future AVF eruption might progress, and highlighted areas of future volcanological research that would reduce epistemic uncertainties through the development of better input models.

Lindsay, Jan; Marzocchi, Warner; Jolly, Gill; Constantinescu, Robert; Selva, Jacopo; Sandri, Laura

2010-03-01

257

Remote Sensing and River Discharge Forecasting for Major Rivers in South Asia (Invited)  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The South Asia is a flashpoint for natural disasters particularly flooding of the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra has profound societal impacts for the region and globally. The 2007 Brahmaputra floods affecting India and Bangladesh, the 2008 avulsion of the Kosi River in India, the 2010 flooding of the Indus River in Pakistan and the 2013 Uttarakhand exemplify disasters on scales almost inconceivable elsewhere. Their frequent occurrence of floods combined with large and rapidly growing populations, high levels of poverty and low resilience, exacerbate the impact of the hazards. Mitigation of these devastating hazards are compounded by limited flood forecast capability, lack of rain/gauge measuring stations and forecast use within and outside the country, and transboundary data sharing on natural hazards. Here, we demonstrate the utility of remotely-derived hydrologic and weather products in producing skillful flood forecasting information without reliance on vulnerable in situ data sources. Over the last decade a forecast system has been providing operational probabilistic forecasts of severe flooding of the Brahmaputra and Ganges Rivers in Bangldesh was developed (Hopson and Webster 2010). The system utilizes ECMWF weather forecast uncertainty information and ensemble weather forecasts, rain gauge and satellite-derived precipitation estimates, together with the limited near-real-time river stage observations from Bangladesh. This system has been expanded to Pakistan and has successfully forecast the 2010-2012 flooding (Shrestha and Webster 2013). To overcome the in situ hydrological data problem, recent efforts in parallel with the numerical modeling have utilized microwave satellite remote sensing of river widths to generate operational discharge advective-based forecasts for the Ganges and Brahmaputra. More than twenty remotely locations upstream of Bangldesh were used to produce stand-alone river flow nowcasts and forecasts at 1-15 days lead time. showing that satellite-based flow estimates are a useful source of dynamical surface water information in data-scarce regions and that they could be used for model calibration and data assimilation purposes in near-time hydrologic forecast applications (Hirpa et al. 2013). More recent efforts during this year's monsoon season are optimally combining these different independent sources of river forecast information along with archived flood inundation imagery of the Dartmouth Flood Observatory to improve the visualization and overall skill of the ongoing CFAB ensemble weather forecast-based flood forecasting system within the unique context of the ongoing flood forecasting efforts for Bangladesh.

Webster, P. J.; Hopson, T. M.; Hirpa, F. A.; Brakenridge, G. R.; De-Groeve, T.; Shrestha, K.; Gebremichael, M.; Restrepo, P. J.

2013-12-01

258

Business Forecasting  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Created by Fred Collopy, Weatherhead School of Management, Case Western Reserve University, this site provides access to current research in business forecasting. The most up-to-date information is maintained in the News section, complete with links to up-coming conferences, competitions, and publications. Annotated links to major business forecasting associations, datasets, and software providers are also provided, in addition to a bibliography of print materials and M-Competition Data--time series from three forecasting competitions available for download on site.

1999-01-01

259

The Effect of NEXRAD Image Looping and National Convective Weather Forecast Product on Pilot Decision Making in the Use of a Cockpit Weather Information Display  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

This experiment investigated improvements to cockpit weather displays to better support the hazardous weather avoidance decision-making of general aviation pilots. Forty-eight general aviation pilots were divided into three equal groups and presented with a simulated flight scenario involving embedded convective activity. The control group had access to conventional sources of pre-flight and in-flight weather products. The two treatment groups were provided with a weather display that presented NEXRAD mosaic images, graphic depiction of METARs, and text METARs. One treatment group used a NEXRAD image looping feature and the second group used the National Convective Weather Forecast (NCWF) product overlaid on the NEXRAD display. Both of the treatment displays provided a significant increase in situation awareness but, they provided incomplete information required to deal with hazardous convective weather conditions, and would require substantial pilot training to permit their safe and effective use.

Burgess, Malcolm A.; Thomas, Rickey P.

2004-01-01

260

Considering Correlation between Variables to Improve Spatiotemporal Forecasting  

Microsoft Academic Search

The importance of forecasting cannot be overemphasized in modern environment surveillance applications, including flood control,\\u000a rainfall analysis, pollution study, nuclear leakage prevention and so on. That is why we proposed STIFF (SpatioTemporal Integrated\\u000a Forecasting Framework) in previous work [11], trying to answer such a challenging problem of doing forecasting in natural environment with both spatial and temporal\\u000a characteristics involved. However,

Zhigang Li; Liangang Liu; Margaret H. Dunham

2003-01-01

261

Research Spotlight: New method could improve hurricane surge forecasting  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In recent years, hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, including Katrina and Ike, caused some of the highest surges on record and significant flooding, highlighting the need for good surge forecasts that can be used for early warning and evacuation. However, current approaches for surge forecasting use models that take too much computational time or have spatial resolution too low to provide adequate forecast accuracy. Irish et al. propose a new method for determining probabilistic maximum hurricane surge forecasts. Their approach is based on calculations of surge response functions, which are derived from numerical simulations, along with analysis of meteorological forecasts. They applied the method to data from Hurricane Ike and found that they could accurately compute surge forecast probabilities within seconds, given publicly available meteorological forecast data. The method can provide a forecast of how surge would vary along the coast and identify areas most vulnerable to high surges. (Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2010GL046347, 2011)

Tretkoff, Ernie

2011-03-01

262

Flooding Exercises  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This homework exercise, developed for an undergraduate geology course at Tulane University, leads students through the steps involved in determining the probability that a flood of a given discharge will occur in any given year. Students retrieve discharge data from U.S. Geological Services Internet sites for Dry Creek, LA, Rapid Creek, SD and Red River, ND to make their calculations.

Nelson, Stephen

263

44 CFR 73.3 - Denial of flood insurance coverage.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

...2011-10-01 false Denial of flood insurance coverage. 73.3 Section 73.3 ...AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IMPLEMENTATION OF SECTION...

2011-10-01

264

44 CFR 61.13 - Standard Flood Insurance Policy.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

... 2011-10-01 false Standard Flood Insurance Policy. 61.13 Section 61.13 ...AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program INSURANCE COVERAGE AND RATES...

2011-10-01

265

44 CFR 61.13 - Standard Flood Insurance Policy.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

... 2010-10-01 false Standard Flood Insurance Policy. 61.13 Section 61.13 ...AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program INSURANCE COVERAGE AND RATES...

2010-10-01

266

44 CFR 61.17 - Group Flood Insurance Policy.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

...2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Group Flood Insurance Policy. 61.17 Section 61.17 ...AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program INSURANCE COVERAGE AND RATES...

2010-10-01

267

ParBreZo: A parallel, unstructured grid, Godunov-type, shallow-water code for high-resolution flood inundation modeling at the regional scale  

E-print Network

: Flood inundation model Parallel computing Unstructured grid Dam-break flood Hurricane Katrina Storm-time nowcasts and/or forecasts that can be used for emergency management purposes such as evacuation, adaptive

Detwiler, Russell

268

Monitoring and research to describe geomorphic effects of the 2011 controlled flood on the Green River in the Canyon of Lodore, Dinosaur National Monument, Colorado and Utah  

USGS Publications Warehouse

In 2011, a large magnitude flow release from Flaming Gorge Reservoir, Wyoming and Utah, occurred in response to high snowpack in the middle Rocky Mountains. This was the third highest recorded discharge along the Green River downstream of Flaming Gorge Dam, Utah, since its initial closure in November 1962 and motivated a research effort to document effects of these flows on channel morphology and sedimentology at four long-term monitoring sites within the Canyon of Lodore in Dinosaur National Monument, Colorado and Utah. Data collected in September 2011 included raft-based bathymetric surveys, ground-based surveys of banks, channel cross sections and vegetation-plot locations, sand-bar stratigraphy, and painted rock recovery on gravel bars. As part of this surveying effort, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data were collected at benchmarks on the canyon rim and along the river corridor to establish a high-resolution survey control network. This survey control network allows for the collection of repeatable spatial and elevation data necessary for high accuracy geomorphic change detection. Nearly 10,000 ground survey points and more than 20,000 bathymetric points (at 1-meter resolution) were collected over a 5-day field campaign, allowing for the construction of reach-scale digital elevation models (DEMs). Additionally, we evaluated long-term geomorphic change at these sites using repeat topographic surveys of eight monumented cross sections at each of the four sites. Analysis of DEMs and channel cross sections show a spatially variable pattern of erosion and deposition, both within and between reaches. As much as 5 meters of scour occurred in pools downstream from flow constrictions, especially in channel segments where gravel bars were absent. By contrast, some channel cross sections were stable during the 2011 floods, and have shown almost no change in over a decade of monitoring. Partial mobility of gravel bars occurred, and although in some locations vegetation such as tamarisk (Tamarix ramosissima) was damaged, wholesale bed motion necessary to fully clear these surfaces was not evident. In flow recirculation zones, eddy sandbars aggraded one meter or more, increasing the area of bars exposed during typical dam operations. Yet overall, the 2011 flood resulted in a decrease in reach-scale sand storage because bed degradation exceeded bar deposition. The 2011 response is consistent with that of a similar event in 1999, which was followed by sand-bar erosion and sediment accumulation on the bed during subsequent years of normal dam operational flows. Although the 1999 and 2011 floods were exceptional in the post-dam system, they did not exceed the pre-dam 2-year flood, isolating their effects to the modern active channel with minor erosion or reworking of pre-dam deposits stabilized through vegetation encroachment.

Mueller, Erich R.; Grams, Paul E.; Schmidt, John C.; Hazel, Joseph E., Jr.; Kaplinski, Matt; Alexander, Jason A.; Kohl, Keith

2014-01-01

269

Fires, Floods, and Hurricanes: Is ENSO to Blame?  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Scientists have associated the El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon with extreme climate events such as flooding in California, droughts in Australia, fires in Indonesia, and increased hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean. Because most textbooks fail to adequately cover this important topic, an ENSO learning experience was developed that is directed toward middle level students. It teaches them about climate science and forecasting with an in-depth study of ENSO. This article focuses on the ENSO-related material located on the DECIDE website (see Resources), a resource developed by teachers at Texas AandM University and College Station Independent School District with funding from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

James W. Mjelde

2007-03-01

270

Sediment Transport During Three Controlled-Flood Experiments on the Colorado River Downstream from Glen Canyon Dam, with Implications for Eddy-Sandbar Deposition in Grand Canyon National Park  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Three large-scale field experiments were conducted on the Colorado River downstream from Glen Canyon Dam in 1996, 2004, and 2008 to evaluate whether artificial (that is, controlled) floods released from the dam could be used in conjunction with the sand supplied by downstream tributaries to rebuild and sustainably maintain eddy sandbars in the river in Grand Canyon National Park. Higher suspended-sand concentrations during a controlled flood will lead to greater eddy-sandbar deposition rates. During each controlled flood experiment, sediment-transport and bed-sediment data were collected to evaluate sediment-supply effects on sandbar deposition. Data collection substantially increased in spatial and temporal density with each subsequent experiment. The suspended- and bed-sediment data collected during all three controlled-flood experiments are presented and analyzed in this report. Analysis of these data indicate that in designing the hydrograph of a controlled flood that is optimized for sandbar deposition in a given reach of the Colorado River, both the magnitude and the grain size of the sand supply must be considered. Because of the opposing physical effects of bed-sand area and bed-sand grain size in regulating suspended-sand concentration, larger amounts of coarser sand on the bed can lead to lower suspended-sand concentrations, and thus lower rates of sandbar deposition, during a controlled flood than can lesser amounts of finer sand on the bed. Although suspended-sand concentrations were higher at all study sites during the 2008 controlled-flood experiment (CFE) than during either the 1996 or 2004 CFEs, these higher concentrations were likely associated with more sand on the bed of the Colorado River in only lower Glen Canyon. More sand was likely present on the bed of the river in Grand Canyon during the 1996 CFE than during either the 2004 or 2008 CFEs. The question still remains as to whether sandbars can be sustained in the Colorado River in Grand Canyon National Park through use of controlled floods in conjunction with typical amounts and grain sizes of sand supplied by the tributaries that enter the Colorado River downstream from Glen Canyon Dam.

Topping, David J.; Rubin, David M.; Grams, Paul E.; Griffiths, Ronald E.; Sabol, Thomas A.; Voichick, Nicholas; Tusso, Robert B.; Vanaman, Karen M.; McDonald, Richard R.

2010-01-01

271

A uniform technique for flood frequency analysis.  

USGS Publications Warehouse

This uniform technique consisted of fitting the logarithms of annual peak discharges to a Pearson Type III distribution using the method of moments. The objective was to adopt a consistent approach for the estimation of floodflow frequencies that could be used in computing average annual flood losses for project evaluation. In addition, a consistent approach was needed for defining equitable flood-hazard zones as part of the National Flood Insurance Program. -from ASCE Publications Information

Thomas, W.O., Jr.

1985-01-01

272

MOUNTAIN WEATHER PREDICTION: PHENOMENOLOGICAL CHALLENGES AND FORECAST METHODOLOGY  

E-print Network

MOUNTAIN WEATHER PREDICTION: PHENOMENOLOGICAL CHALLENGES AND FORECAST METHODOLOGY Michael P. Meyers NOAA/National Weather Service, Grand Junction, Colorado and W. James Steenburgh Department of the American Meteorological Society Mountain Weather and Forecasting Monograph Draft from Friday, May 21, 2010

Steenburgh, Jim

273

BASELINE EMISSIONS FORECASTS FOR INDUSTRIAL NON-BOILER SOURCES  

EPA Science Inventory

The report gives regional air emission forecasts from three Process Model Projection Technique (PROMPT) runs. These estimates illustrate a range of possible future emissions. PROMPT, one of a number of National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program emission forecasting models, pr...

274

A Prototype National Educational Finance Planning Model. Projections of Educational Needs, Resources and Disparities under Various Forecasting and Policy Assumptions.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

The development and application of a computerized model, designed to stimulate the nation's future educational needs and resources and the disaprities between them, are described. The results of the simulation, reported by region and by type of residential area, allow the following types of projections through 1980: (1) enrollment given…

Sklar, Sigmund L.; Ioup, William E.

275

Application of Thorpex-Tigge Multi-Center Weather Forecasts for River Discharge Forecasting: Application to Major Rivers in South Asia  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

TIGGE, the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble, is designed to accelerate the improvements in the accuracy of 1-day to 2 week high-impact weather forecasts for the benefit of humanity. In this presentation we examine the precipitation forecasting skill of the TIGGE ensemble to flood forecasting in South Asia. Natural flood disasters impact South Asia with profound societal impacts for the region and globally, with half the world's population depending on the region's great rivers: the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra. The 2007 Brahmaputra floods affecting India and Bangladesh, and the 2010 flooding of the Indus River in Pakistan exemplify disasters on scales almost inconceivable elsewhere. In this presentation we examine the TIGGE precipitation forecasting skill over the basins of the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Indus. Recent work (Hamill 2012) has shown the benefits of Tigge to precipitation forecasting over the conterminous US. In this work we also explore its utility in improving the skill of the Climate Forecasting Applications for Bangladesh (CFAB) forecast system, which has been providing operational probabilistic forecasts over the last decade of severe flooding of the Brahmaputra and Ganges Rivers as part of a humanitarian effort to mitigate the impacts of these events on the country of Bangladesh

Hopson, T. M.; Hamill, T.; Webster, P. J.

2013-12-01

276

Dynamic control of flood limited water level for reservoir operation by considering inflow uncertainty  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

SummaryAccording to the Chinese Flood Control Act, reservoir water levels generally are not allowed to exceed the flood limited water level (FLWL) during flood season in order to offer adequate storage for flood prevention. However, the operation rules based on the current FLWL have neglected meteorological and real-time flood forecasting information and give too much priority to low probability floods. For floodwater utilization, dynamic control of reservoir FLWL is a valuable and effective methodology to compromise between flood control and conservation for reservoir operation during the flood season. The dynamic control bound is a fundamental key element for implementing reservoir FLWL dynamic control operation. In this paper, a dynamic control operation model that considers inflow uncertainty, i.e. the inflow forecasting error and uncertainty of the flood hydrograph shape is proposed and developed. The model consists of three modules: the first one is a pre-release module, which is used to estimate the upper boundary of dynamic control bound on basis of inflow forecasting results; the second one is a refill operation module, which is used to retain recession flood, and the third one is a risk analysis module, which is used to assess flood risk. The acceptable flood control operation risk constraints and quantificational analysis methods are given, and the dynamic control bound of reservoir FLWL is estimated by using Monte Carlo simulation. The China's three gorges reservoir (TGR) is selected as a case study. A multiple-input single-output linear systematic model is chosen for inflow forecasting of the TGR, and the future inflows are derived from gauged records by assuming that the inflow forecasting error follows a normal distribution. The application results show that the dynamic control of reservoir FLWL can effectively increase hydropower generation and the floodwater utilization rate without increasing flood control risk.

Li, Xiang; Guo, Shenglian; Liu, Pan; Chen, Guiya

2010-09-01

277

Reasonable Forecasts  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

This article presents a sample legal battle that illustrates school officials' "reasonable forecasts" of substantial disruption in the school environment. In 2006, two students from a Texas high school came to school carrying purses decorated with images of the Confederate flag. The school district has a zero-tolerance policy for clothing or…

Taylor, Kelley R.

2010-01-01

278

Forecasting Earthquakes  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

In this video there are scenes of damage from the Northridge Earthquake and interviews with Dr. Andrea Donnelan, Geophysics at JPL, and Dr. Jim Dolan, earthquake geologist from Cal. Tech. The interviews discuss earthquake forecasting by tracking changes in the earth's crust using antenna receiving signals from a series of satellites called the Global Positioning System (GPS).

1994-01-01

279

44 CFR 73.4 - Restoration of flood insurance coverage.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

...Assistance 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Restoration of flood insurance coverage. 73.4 Section 73.4...1316 OF THE NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE ACT OF 1968 § 73.4 Restoration of flood insurance coverage. (a) Insurance...

2011-10-01

280

44 CFR 73.4 - Restoration of flood insurance coverage.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

...Assistance 1 2012-10-01 2011-10-01 true Restoration of flood insurance coverage. 73.4 Section 73.4...1316 OF THE NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE ACT OF 1968 § 73.4 Restoration of flood insurance coverage. (a) Insurance...

2012-10-01

281

44 CFR 73.4 - Restoration of flood insurance coverage.  

...Assistance 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Restoration of flood insurance coverage. 73.4 Section 73.4...1316 OF THE NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE ACT OF 1968 § 73.4 Restoration of flood insurance coverage. (a) Insurance...

2014-10-01

282

44 CFR 73.4 - Restoration of flood insurance coverage.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

...Assistance 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Restoration of flood insurance coverage. 73.4 Section 73.4...1316 OF THE NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE ACT OF 1968 § 73.4 Restoration of flood insurance coverage. (a) Insurance...

2010-10-01

283

Deriving global flood hazard maps of fluvial floods through a physical model cascade  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Global flood hazard maps can be used in the assessment of flood risk in a number of different applications, including (re)insurance and large scale flood preparedness. Such global hazard maps can be generated using large scale physically based models of rainfall-runoff and river routing, when used in conjunction with a number of post-processing methods. In this study, the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) land surface model is coupled to ERA-Interim reanalysis meteorological forcing data, and resultant runoff is passed to a river routing algorithm which simulates floodplains and flood flow across the global land area. The global hazard map is based on a 30 yr (1979-2010) simulation period. A Gumbel distribution is fitted to the annual maxima flows to derive a number of flood return periods. The return periods are calculated initially for a 25 × 25 km grid, which is then reprojected onto a 1 × 1 km grid to derive maps of higher resolution and estimate flooded fractional area for the individual 25 × 25 km cells. Several global and regional maps of flood return periods ranging from 2 to 500 yr are presented. The results compare reasonably to a benchmark data set of global flood hazard. The developed methodology can be applied to other datasets on a global or regional scale.

Pappenberger, Florian; Dutra, Emanuel; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Cloke, Hannah L.

2013-04-01

284

TRAVEL FORECASTER  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Business travel planning within an organization is often a time-consuming task. Travel Forecaster is a menu-driven, easy-to-use program which plans, forecasts cost, and tracks actual vs. planned cost for business-related travel of a division or branch of an organization and compiles this information into a database to aid the travel planner. The program's ability to handle multiple trip entries makes it a valuable time-saving device. Travel Forecaster takes full advantage of relational data base properties so that information that remains constant, such as per diem rates and airline fares (which are unique for each city), needs entering only once. A typical entry would include selection with the mouse of the traveler's name and destination city from pop-up lists, and typed entries for number of travel days and purpose of the trip. Multiple persons can be selected from the pop-up lists and multiple trips are accommodated by entering the number of days by each appropriate month on the entry form. An estimated travel cost is not required of the user as it is calculated by a Fourth Dimension formula. With this information, the program can produce output of trips by month with subtotal and total cost for either organization or sub-entity of an organization; or produce outputs of trips by month with subtotal and total cost for international-only travel. It will also provide monthly and cumulative formats of planned vs. actual outputs in data or graph form. Travel Forecaster users can do custom queries to search and sort information in the database, and it can create custom reports with the user-friendly report generator. Travel Forecaster 1.1 is a database program for use with Fourth Dimension Runtime 2.1.1. It requires a Macintosh Plus running System 6.0.3 or later, 2Mb of RAM and a hard disk. The standard distribution medium for this package is one 3.5 inch 800K Macintosh format diskette. Travel Forecaster was developed in 1991. Macintosh is a registered trademark of Apple Computer, Inc. Fourth Dimension is a registered trademark of Acius, Inc.

Mauldin, L. E.

1994-01-01

285

100-Year Flood-It's All About Chance  

USGS Publications Warehouse

In the 1960's, the United States government decided to use the 1-percent annual exceedance probability (AEP) flood as the basis for the National Flood Insurance Program. The 1-percent AEP flood was thought to be a fair balance between protecting the public and overly stringent regulation. Because the 1-percent AEP flood has a 1 in 100 chance of being equaled or exceeded in any 1 year, and it has an average recurrence interval of 100 years, it often is referred to as the '100-year flood'. The term '100-year flood' is part of the national lexicon, but is often a source of confusion by those not familiar with flood science and statistics. This poster is an attempt to explain the concept, probabilistic nature, and inherent uncertainties of the '100-year flood' to the layman.

Holmes, Robert R.; Dinicola, Karen

2010-01-01

286

Reapplication of Traditional Hydrological Forecasting Methods  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

At the end of the last Century Jozsef Pech, who was the head of the Hydrological Fore- casting Department in Hungary, developed graphical methods for hydrological fore- casting. These methods made possible to solve non- linear forecasting problems. To involve non-linearity into the models handmade drawings were applied. Basic ideas of these methods are still useful nowadays. Computers make easier the enormous graph- ical work that had to be carried out a century ago. In our investigation all the graphs, nomograms and equations of Pech were put into a computer, after adjusting them to the present hydrological boundary conditions. Routing of floods in time and space are shown on 3D maps. Connected water-level data from upstream and downstream gauges along with the propagation times are also displayed as surfaces. These graphs help to analyse flood events. Based on these analyses, computerised forecasting tools were made for the practical use of the models. The so-updated model has been tested on the Tisza, a river having countless of tributaries. In the last two years three extreme flood events have been experienced along this river, which have turned the attention towards the application of accurate flood forecasting methods. As Pech developed his model exactly for the Tisza its reapplication is very actual issue. As 1D hydraulic models are also being developed for this river (that also enable flood forecasting) it will be possible to compare the accuracy of the different methods. It may happen that methods developed by our forefathers will prove to be applicable in our times too.

Kontur, I.; Keve, G.

287

Development of Flood GIS Database of River Indus using RS and GIS Techniques  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) are information technologies that furnish a broad range of tools to assist in preparing for the next flood and for obtaining vital information about the flood plain. This type of information is used to improve flood forecasting and preparedness, monitoring flood conditions, assess flood damage, relief efforts, flood control etc. Severe floods of varied magnitudes have occurred in the river Indus and its tributaries viz; Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej during the past three decades covering the Indus flood plain from Cheshma Barrage in the province of Punjab to downstream of Kotri Barrage in the souh of Sindh province of Pakistan. Digital mapping of different floods in the Indus Basin was carried out using both MSS and TM data of Landsat yielding flood maps. These maps depict flood extent and other relevant information in the flood plain. In order to create comprehensive GIS database, various hydrologic information such as rainfall, river discharge, canal withdrawal, embankment, breach etc. were incorporated. Flood database provide comprehensive information both in separate layer and combination of multiple layers pertaining to floods that occurred in the past three decades . GIS database on flood provides easy access to updated in-situ geographic information to planners and irrigation engineers concerned with overall river Indus operation and management system. GIS database of Indus floods can als o be used to improve the efficiency of decision making and management by collecting, organizing and integrating geographic, environmental and socio-economic spatial data and information.

Siddiqui, Z.; Farooq, M.; Shah, S.

288

New Techniques for Real-Time Stage Forecasting for Tributaries in the Nashville Area  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

On Saturday, May 1, 2010, heavy rain began falling in the Cumberland River Valley, Tennessee, and continued through the following day. 13.5 inches was measured at Nashville, an unprecedented amount that doubled the previous 2-day record, and exceeded the May monthly total record of 11 inches. Elsewhere in the valley, amounts of over 19 inches were measured. This intensity of rainfall quickly overwhelmed tributaries to the Cumberland in the Nashville area, causing wide-spread and serious flooding. Tractor-trailers and houses were seen floating down Mill Creek, a primary tributary in the south eastern area of Nashville. Twenty-six people died and over 2 billion dollars in damage occurred as a result of the flood. Since that time, several other significant rainfall events have occurred in the area. As a result of the flood, agencies in the Nashville area want better capabilities to forecast stages for the local tributaries. Better stage forecasting will help local agencies close roads, evacuate homes and businesses and similar actions. An interagency group, consisting of Metro Nashville Water Services and Office of Emergency Management, the National Weather Service, the US Geological Survey and the US Army Corps of Engineers, has been established to seek ways to better forecast short-term events in the region. It should be noted that the National Weather Service has the official responsibility of forecasting stages. This paper examines techniques and algorithms that are being developed to meet this need and the practical aspects of integrating them into a usable product that can quickly and accurately forecast stages in the short-time frame of the tributaries. This includes not only the forecasting procedure, but also the procedure to acquire the latest precipitation and stage data to make the forecasts. These procedures are integrated into the program HEC-RTS, the US Army Corps of Engineers Real-Time Simulation program. HEC-RTS is a Java-based integration tool that has been derived from the Corps Water Management System (CWMS). The modeling component takes observed and forecasted rainfall to compute river flow with the program HEC-HMS. The river hydraulics program, HEC-RAS, computes river stages and water surface profiles. An inundation boundary and depth map of water in the flood plain is computed from HEC-RAS Mapper. The user-configurable sequence of modeling software allows engineers to evaluate and compare hydraulic impacts for various "what if?" scenarios. The implementation of these techniques and HEC-RTS is examined for the Mill Creek basin, the 108 square mile tributary basin south east of Nashville. Mill Creek has an average annual flow of 150 CFS and a short response time. It has suffered major damage from the 2010 and other events. The accuracy and effectiveness of the techniques in the integrated tool HEC-RTS is evaluated.

Charley, W.; Moran, B.; LaRosa, J.

2011-12-01

289

Hazards of Extreme Weather: Flood Fatalities in Texas  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) considers flooding “America’s Number One Natural Hazard”. Despite flood management efforts in many communities, U.S. flood damages remain high, due, in large part, to increasing population and property development in flood-prone areas. Floods are the leading cause of fatalities related to natural disasters in Texas. Texas leads the nation in flash flood fatalities. There are three times more fatalities in Texas (840) than the following state Pennsylvania (265). This study examined flood fatalities that occurred in Texas between 1960 and 2008. Flood fatality statistics were extracted from three sources: flood fatality databases from the National Climatic Data Center, the Spatial Hazard Event and Loss Database for the United States, and the Texas Department of State Health Services. The data collected for flood fatalities include the date, time, gender, age, location, and weather conditions. Inconsistencies among the three databases were identified and discussed. Analysis reveals that most fatalities result from driving into flood water (about 65%). Spatial analysis indicates that more fatalities occurred in counties containing major urban centers. Hydrologic analysis of a flood event that resulted in five fatalities was performed. A hydrologic model was able to simulate the water level at a location where a vehicle was swept away by flood water resulting in the death of the driver.

Sharif, H. O.; Jackson, T.; Bin-Shafique, S.

2009-12-01

290

Current problems in communication from the weather forecast in the prevention of hydraulic and hydrogeological risk  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The Italian territory is one of the most fragile hydraulic and hydro geologic of the world, due to its complexity physiographic, lithological and above meteo-climatic too. Moreover, In recent years, the unhappy urbanization, the abandonment of mountain areas and countryside have fostered hydro geological instability, ever more devastating, in relation to the extremes of meteorological events. After the dramatic floods and landscapes of the last 24 months - in which more than 50 people died - it is actually open a public debate on the issues related to prevention, forecasting and management of hydro-meteorological risk. Aim of the correct weather forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales is to avoid or minimize the potential occurrence of damage or human losses resulting from the increasingly of frequent extreme weather events. In Italy, there are two major complex problems that do not allow for effective dissemination of the correct weather forecasting. First, the absence of a national meteorological service - which can ensure the quality of information. In this regard, it is at an advanced stage the establishment of a unified national weather service - formed by technicians to national and regional civil protection and the Meteorological Service of the Air Force, which will ensure the quality of the prediction, especially through exclusive processing of national and local weather forecasting and hydro geological weather alert. At present, however, this lack favors the increasing diffusion of meteorological sites more or less professional - often totally not "ethical" - which, at different spatial scales, tend to amplify the signals from the weather prediction models, describing them the users of the web such as exceptional or rare phenomena and often causing unjustified alarmism. This behavior is almost always aimed at the desire of give a forecast before other sites and therefore looking for new commercial sponsors, with easy profits. On the other hand, however, the almost complete absence of education to environmental risks - also from as primary school - does not allow the users to know to select the information ethically and technically correct, increasingly favoring the proliferation of most of the "weather-commercial" or private weather websites. It would seem therefore essential to implement the activities of specific information by the universities and public institutions responsible for forecasting and prevention-hydrological forecast.

Fazzini, Massimiliano; Vaccaro, Carmela

2014-05-01

291

Determining Plausible Forecast Outcomes  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

The content of this lesson will assist the forecaster with the third step of the forecast process, namely, determining plausible forecast outcomes forward in time. The lesson will highlight the role of probabilistic forecast tools to assess the degree of uncertainty in a forecast, as well as suggest an approach for evaluating past and present model performance.

COMET

2010-08-17

292

Prospects for development of unified global flood observation and prediction systems (Invited)  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Floods are among the most damaging of natural hazards, with global flood losses in 2011 alone estimated to have exceeded $100B. Historically, flood economic damages have been highest in the developed world (due in part to encroachment on historical flood plains), but loss of life, and human impacts have been greatest in the developing world. However, as the 2011 Thailand floods show, industrializing countries, many of which do not have well developed flood protection systems, are increasingly vulnerable to economic damages as they become more industrialized. At present, unified global flood observation and prediction systems are in their infancy; notwithstanding that global weather forecasting is a mature field. The summary for this session identifies two evolving capabilities that hold promise for development of more sophisticated global flood forecast systems: global hydrologic models and satellite remote sensing (primarily of precipitation, but also of flood inundation). To this I would add the increasing sophistication and accuracy of global precipitation analysis (and forecast) fields from numerical weather prediction models. In this brief overview, I will review progress in all three areas, and especially the evolution of hydrologic data assimilation which integrates modeling and data sources. I will also comment on inter-governmental and inter-agency cooperation, and related issues that have impeded progress in the development and utilization of global flood observation and prediction systems.

Lettenmaier, D. P.

2013-12-01

293

Flood Inundation Mapper  

USGS Multimedia Gallery

A powerful new tool for flood response and mitigation are digital geospatial flood-inundation maps that show flood water extent and depth on the land surface. Because floods are the leading cause of natural-disaster losses, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is actively involved in the development of...

294

Facilitating Interdisciplinary Geosciences and Societal Impacts Research and Education via Dynamically Adaptive, Interoperable Data and Forecasting Systems  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The problems monitoring, predicting, and responding to coastal inundation and inland flooding situations are inherently multidisciplinary. Predicting precipitation and streamflow require expertise in meteorology and hydrology. Oceanography also enters the picture in the cases where the severe storm occurs in a coastal area. Appropriate responses to such natural hazards requires integration of infrastructure and demographics data systems associated with the societal impacts community. Building and disseminating a system that will address this problem in a comprehensive and coherent manner can only be done by a team with the a broad range of technological and scientific expertise and community connections. Efforts are underway to develop interoperable data systems among the atmospheric science, hydrology, coastal oceans, and societal impacts communities, so they may conveniently and rapidly share data among their systems in cases where hazardous events threaten infrastructure and human health. The basic approach is to build on a dynamically adaptive data access and high resolution, local forecasting system being developed for the LEAD (Linked Environments for Atmospheric Discovery) project. At present, the LEAD technology is confined to local weather forecasts automatically steered by algorithms analyzing data from national forecasts. But efforts are underway to develop an expanded team that would include expertise in coupling atmospheric forecast models with hydrological and storm surge forecast models and, in turn, to coordinate those data systems with those of the GIS (Geographic Information System) community which contain most of the demographic and infrastructure information related to societal impacts. The paper will provide an update on the status of these efforts and a demonstration of how such a dynamically adaptive forecasting system focused high resolution local forecast model runs on Hurricane Katrina.

Weber, J.; Domenico, B.; Chiswell, S.; Baltzer, T.

2005-12-01

295

Impacts of climate change on coastal flood risk in England and Wales: 2030-2100  

Microsoft Academic Search

Coastal flood risk is a function of the probability of coastal flooding and the consequential damage. Scenarios of potential changes in coastal flood risk due to changes in climate, society and the economy over the 21 st Century have been analysed using a national-scale quantified flood risk analysis methodology. If it is assumed that there will be no adaptation to

Jim W Hall; Paul B Sayers; Mike J A Walkden; Mike Panzeri

2004-01-01

296

Impacts of climate change on coastal flood risk in England and Wales: 2030–2100  

Microsoft Academic Search

Coastal flood risk is a function of the probability of coastal flooding and the consequential damage. Scenarios of potential changes in coastal flood risk due to changes in climate, society and the economy over the 21st Century have been analysed using a national-scale quantified flood risk analysis methodology. If it is assumed that there will be no adaptation to increasing

Jim W. Hall; Paul B. Sayers; Mike J. A. Walkden; Mike Panzeri

2006-01-01

297

Flood Plain Management.  

E-print Network

of 1973 is an expanded flood insurance program, intended as a substitute and eventual replacement for Federal disaster relief for flood occurrences. It combines sub- sidized flood insurance for existing development with required insurance based... on actuarial rates for future development in flood-prone areas. An immediate problem for the Federal Insurance Administration (FIA) has been the documentation of !he flood risk for purposes of ratemaking. The U.S. Corps of Engineers is making a limited...

McNeely, John G.; Lacewell, Ronald D.

1976-01-01

298

Delivering integrated HAZUS-MH flood loss analyses and flood inundation maps over the Web.  

PubMed

Catastrophic flooding is responsible for more loss of life and damages to property than any other natural hazard. Recently developed flood inundation mapping technologies make it possible to view the extent and depth of flooding on the land surface over the Internet; however, by themselves these technologies are unable to provide estimates of losses to property and infrastructure. The Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA's) HAZUS-MH software is extensively used to conduct flood loss analyses in the United States, providing a nationwide database of population and infrastructure at risk. Unfortunately, HAZUS-MH requires a dedicated Geographic Information System (GIS) workstation and a trained operator, and analyses are not adapted for convenient delivery over the Web. This article describes a cooperative effort by the US Geological Survey (USGS) and FEMA to make HAZUS-MH output GIS and Web compatible and to integrate these data with digital flood inundation maps in USGS's newly developed Inundation Mapping Web Portal. By running the computationally intensive HAZUS-MH flood analyses offline and converting the output to a Web-GIS compatible format, detailed estimates of flood losses can now be delivered to anyone with Internet access, thus dramatically increasing the availability of these forecasts to local emergency planners and first responders. PMID:24303773

Hearn, Paul P; Longenecker, Herbert E; Aguinaldo, John J; Rahav, Ami N

2013-01-01

299

Delivering integrated HAZUS-MH flood loss analyses and flood inundation maps over the Web  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Catastrophic flooding is responsible for more loss of life and damages to property than any other natural hazard. Recently developed flood inundation mapping technologies make it possible to view the extent and depth of flooding on the land surface over the Internet; however, by themselves these technologies are unable to provide estimates of losses to property and infrastructure. The Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA's) HAZUS-MH software is extensively used to conduct flood loss analyses in the United States, providing a nationwide database of population and infrastructure at risk. Unfortunately, HAZUS-MH requires a dedicated Geographic Information System (GIS) workstation and a trained operator, and analyses are not adapted for convenient delivery over the Web. This article describes a cooperative effort by the US Geological Survey (USGS) and FEMA to make HAZUS-MH output GIS and Web compatible and to integrate these data with digital flood inundation maps in USGS’s newly developed Inundation Mapping Web Portal. By running the computationally intensive HAZUS-MH flood analyses offline and converting the output to a Web-GIS compatible format, detailed estimates of flood losses can now be delivered to anyone with Internet access, thus dramatically increasing the availability of these forecasts to local emergency planners and first responders.

Hearn, Paul P.; Longenecker, Herbert E., III; Aguinaldo, John J.; Rahav, Ami N.

2013-01-01

300

Flood Facts  

MedlinePLUS

... Home About The National Insurance Program Residential Coverage Commercial Coverage PolicyHolder Resources Preparation & Recovery Agent Site Agent ... home and its contents and $643 for a commercial building and its contents.* *$129 residential annual premium ...

301

AIR QUALITY FORECAST VERIFICATION USING SATELLITE DATA  

EPA Science Inventory

NOAA 's operational geostationary satellite retrievals of aerosol optical depths (AODs) were used to verify National Weather Service (NWS) experimental (research mode) particulate matter (PM2.5) forecast guidance issued during the summer 2004 International Consortium for Atmosp...

302

Forecast Mekong: 2011 update  

USGS Publications Warehouse

In 2009, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary R. Clinton joined with the Foreign Ministers of Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam in launching the Lower Mekong Initiative to enhance U.S. engagement with the Lower Mekong countries in the areas of environment, health, education, and infrastructure. Part of the Lower Mekong Initiative, the U.S. Geological Survey's Forecast Mekong project is engaging the United States in scientific research relevant to environmental issues in the Lower Mekong River countries and is staying the course in support of the Mekong Nations with a suite of new projects for 2011.

Turnipseed, D. Phil

2011-01-01

303

Thunderstorm-Scale Ensemble Forecasting  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thunderstorms present an important weather forecast problem. Both the initiation and the general behavior of convection in the atmosphere are challenging to predict. In order to resolve the gross features of individual convective elements in numerical models, grid spacing of a kilometer or less is required, much finer than the current generation of operational numerical weather forecasting models. Sensitivities to small changes in the initial conditions and the physical parameterizations in the models have been shown to have important effects on some occasions at that scale. In order to address the predictability of thunderstorms with numerical models and to experiment with techniques to provide operationally useful information for weather forecasters, an ensemble of thunderstorm simulations initalized with conditions from larger scale models has been run experimentally in near-real time since June 2001 at the National Severe Storms Laboratory for use by forecasters from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. In addition, previous cases run in a non-operational, research mode have been expanded to look at sensitivity to inclusion of ice-phase microphysics. In general, it appears that forecasters find the information from the ensemble frequently agrees with their subjective assessment of the thunderstorm potential. This suggests that if computational resources were sufficient, the ensemble could play an important role in the thunderstorm forecasting process. The ice-phase microphysics sensitivity tests have shown that, in some cases, the inclusion of ice in the ensemble has a profound impact on the estimate of the probable lifetime of storms. The sensitivity due to the changes in model formulation may be as large or larger than the sensitivity due to initial condition uncertainty. Other parameterizations have not been tested in this experiment to date, but it suggests that consideration of both initial condition uncertainty and model formulation may be necessary to develop an ensemble that provides reliable guidance about thunderstorms for weather forecasters. >http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/Spring_2001/elmore

Brooks, H. E.; Elmore, K. L.

2001-12-01

304

Forecast Mekong  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Forecast Mekong is part of the U.S. Department of State's Lower Mekong Initiative, which was launched in 2009 by Secretary Hillary Clinton and the Foreign Ministers of Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam to enhance partnerships between the U.S. and the Lower Mekong River countries in the areas of environment, health, education, and infrastructure. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is working in close cooperation with the U.S. Department of State to use research and data from the Lower Mekong Basin to provide hands-on results that will help decision makers in Lower Mekong River countries in the planning and design for restoration, conservation, and management efforts in the basin.

Turnipseed, D. Phil

2011-01-01

305

HydroMet: Real-time Forecasting System for Hydrologic Hazards  

Microsoft Academic Search

Recent devastating floods and severe droughts in North Carolina called attention to the need of a reliable nowcasting and forecasting system for these hydrologic hazards. In response to the demand, HydroMet project was launched by RENCI (Renaissance Computing Institute). On a supercomputer in the institute, we integrated (1) WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) for the mesoscale numerical weather prediction, (2)

L. E. Band; D. Shin; T. Hwang; J. Goodall; M. Reed; M. Rynge; L. Stillwell; K. Galluppi

2007-01-01

306

On-line river flow forecasting with `Hydromax' : successes and challenges after  

E-print Network

: "Hydromax" is the river flow forecasting system for the early warning of extreme hydrological events (floods, Conceptual model, Forecasting, Hydrology 1. INTRODUCTION The early warning for extreme hydrological events in a reliable data base with advanced management tools for data reconciliation, data quality control and data

Bastin, Georges

307

How Does Climate Impact Floods? Closing the Knowledge Gap  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Destructive floods impose severe consequences on societies, leaving havoc and death in their wake. Annually, an average of 9000 people are killed, and 115 million require immediate assistance or are displaced by floods worldwide. Because of population increase in flood-prone areas alone, the number of people exposed to floods in North America is expected to almost double in 2030 compared to 1970 [National Research Council, 2013]. It is no wonder that floods are considered serious threats by government agencies and municipal planners, but the impact of climate change on these numbers is still somewhat uncertain.

Paasche, Øyvind; Støren, Eivind W. N.

2014-07-01

308

Science and Technology in Regional Flood Disaster Pilots: A GEOSS Capacity Building Imperative  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

This paper describes activities and results of melding basic scientific research in remote sensing with applied science and technology development and infusion to implement regional flood pilot programs in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Caribbean Region. These regional flood pilots support local and national agency involvement in emergency response and humanitarian assistance activities using orbital, sub-orbital, and in-situ sensors combined with predictive models and socio-economic data to form a cohesive, interoperable set of systems that cover the full cycle of disaster mitigation, warning, response, and recovery for societal benefit. Global satellite coverage is coordinated through the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) in conjunction with the United Nations Space Platform for Space-based Information for Disaster Management and Emergency Response (UN-SPIDER). Other international non-government organizations plus regional and local agencies all play individual roles in exploring the science results, applying the observations and model outputs to form geo-referenced maps that provide improved situational awareness and environmental intelligence for disaster management. The improvements to flood forecast and nowcast outputs include higher resolution drainage and hydrology mapping, improved retrievals for microwave data for soil moisture, plus improved validation from regional ground truth databases. Flow gauge and river depth archive data from local assets provide improved validation of flood model results. Incorporation of atmospheric correction using ground truth data from calibration and validation sites enables better detection and classification of plant species identification and plant stress. Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standards for Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) are implemented to provide internet access to satellite tasking, data processing, and distribution/notification in addition to model outputs and other local and regional data sets. The Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) Architecture has shown to be flexible and scalable in the process.

Frye, S. W.; Cappelaere, P. G.; Mandl, D.

2009-12-01

309

Practical Experience of Discharge Measurement in Flood Conditions with ADP  

Microsoft Academic Search

Accurate discharge estimation is important for an efficient river basin management and especially for flood forecasting. The traditional way of estimating the discharge in hydrological practice is to measure the water stage and to convert the recorded water stage values into discharge by using the single-valued rating curve .Relationship between the stage and discharge values of the rating curve for

A. Vidmar; M. Brilly; S. Rusjan

2009-01-01

310

Significant Floods in the United States During the 20th Century - USGS Measures a Century of Floods  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

During the 20th century, floods were the number-one natural disaster in the United States in terms of the number of lives lost and property damage. For more than 110 years the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has measured floods for the Nation's benefit while supplying additional streamflow data with its extensive stream-gaging network. Thirty-two of the most significant floods (in terms of number of lives lost and (or) property damage) in the United States during the 20th century are listed according to the various types of floods. Internet sites for acquiring near-real-time streamflow data and other pertinent flood information are provided.

Charles Perry

311

Flood of April 13, 1980, Mobile, Alabama  

USGS Publications Warehouse

This report presents basic data collected during the flood of April 13, 1980, in Mobile, Alabama. The data consists of high-water marks, accumulative rainfall, peak discharge at local gaging stations, hydrographs of discharge and rainfall, and photographs at various locations taken during and immediately after the flood. The report presented in map-series and lists data that are readily usable by local planners and developers. During th afternoon of April 13, 1980, the National Weather Service at Mobile recorded a total of 10.4 inches of rainfall. Immediately after the flood approximately 60 to 70 percent of the roads in the Mobile area were impassable. (USGS)

Hannum, Curtis H.; Nelson, George H., Jr.

1980-01-01

312

A System for Continuous Hydrological Ensemble Forecasting (SCHEF) to lead times of 9 days  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

This study describes a System for Continuous Hydrological Ensemble Forecasting (SCHEF) designed to forecast streamflows to lead times of 9 days. SCHEF is intended to support optimal management of water resources for consumptive and environmental purposes and ultimately to support the management of impending floods. Deterministic rainfall forecasts from the ACCESS-G numerical weather prediction (NWP) model are post-processed using a Bayesian joint probability model to correct biases and quantify uncertainty. Realistic temporal and spatial characteristics are instilled in the rainfall forecast ensemble with the Schaake shuffle. The ensemble rainfall forecasts are then used as inputs to the GR4H hydrological model to produce streamflow forecasts. A hydrological error correction is applied to ensure forecasts transit smoothly from recent streamflow observations. SCHEF forecasts streamflows skilfully for a range of hydrological and climate conditions. Skill is particularly evident in forecasts of streamflows at lead times of 1-6 days. Forecasts perform best in temperate perennially flowing rivers, while forecasts are poorest in intermittently flowing rivers. The poor streamflow forecasts in intermittent rivers are primarily the result of poor rainfall forecasts, rather than an inadequate representation of hydrological processes. Forecast uncertainty becomes more reliably quantified at longer lead times; however there is considerable scope for improving the reliability of streamflow forecasts at all lead times. Additionally, we show that the choice of forecast time-step can influence forecast accuracy: forecasts generated at a 1-h time-step tend to be more accurate than at longer time-steps (e.g. 1-day). This is largely because at shorter time-steps the hydrological error correction is able to correct streamflow forecasts with more recent information, rather than the ability of GR4H to simulate hydrological processes better at shorter time-steps. SCHEF will form the basis of a streamflow forecast service for Australia to be operated by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Bennett, James C.; Robertson, David E.; Shrestha, Durga Lal; Wang, Q. J.; Enever, David; Hapuarachchi, Prasantha; Tuteja, Narendra K.

2014-11-01

313

River Flood Animation  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Use this animation to learn about floods. You will learn about drainage basins, discharge, hydrographs, floodplain deposition, and infiltration. You will also learn about the frequency of floods and what we are doing to control them.

2002-01-01

314

FLOOD EVENT MAPPING IMAGES  

EPA Science Inventory

OSEI flood products (FLD) include multichannel color composite imagery and single-channel grayscale imagery of enlarged river areas or increased sediment flow. Typically, these events are displayed by comparison to imagery taken when flooding was not occurring....

315

Ensemble-based analysis of Front Range severe convection on 6-7 June 2012: Forecast uncertainty and communication of weather information to Front Range decision-makers  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The variation of topography in Colorado not only adds to the beauty of its landscape, but also tests our ability to predict warm season severe convection. Deficient radar coverage and limited observations make quantitative precipitation forecasting quite a challenge. Past studies have suggested that greater forecast skill of mesoscale convection initiation and precipitation characteristics are achievable considering an ensemble with explicitly predicted convection compared to one that has parameterized convection. The range of uncertainty and probabilities in these forecasts can help forecasters in their precipitation predictions and communication of weather information to emergency managers (EMs). EMs serve an integral role in informing and protecting communities in anticipation of hazardous weather. An example of such an event occurred on the evening of 6 June 2012, where areas to the lee of the Rocky Mountain Front Range were impacted by flash-flood-producing severe convection that included heavy rain and copious amounts of hail. Despite the discrepancy in the timing, location and evolution of convection, the convection-allowing ensemble forecasts generally outperformed those of the convection-parameterized ensemble in representing the mesoscale processes responsible for the 6-7 June severe convective event. Key features sufficiently reproduced by several of the convection-allowing ensemble members resembled the observations: 1) general location of a convergence boundary east of Denver, 2) convective initiation along the boundary, 3) general location of a weak cold front near the Wyoming/Nebraska border, and 4) cold pools and moist upslope characteristics that contributed to the backbuilding of convection. Members from the convection-parameterized ensemble that failed to reproduce these results displaced the convergence boundary, produced a cold front that moved southeast too quickly, and used the cold front for convective initiation. The convection-allowing ensemble also showed greater skill in forecasting heavy precipitation amounts in the vicinity of where they were observed during the most active convective period, particularly near urbanized areas. A total of 9 Front Range EMs were interviewed to research how they understood hazardous weather information, and how their perception of forecast uncertainty would influence their decision making following a heavy rain event. Many of the EMs use situational awareness and past experiences with major weather events to guide their emergency planning. They also highly valued their relationship with the National Weather Service to improve their understanding of weather forecasts and ask questions about the uncertainties. Most of the EMs perceived forecast uncertainty in terms of probability and with the understanding that forecasting the weather is an imprecise science. The greater the likelihood of occurrence (implied by a higher probability of precipitation) showed greater confidence in the forecast that an event was likely to happen. Five probabilistic forecast products were generated from the convection-allowing ensemble output to generate a hypothetical warm season heavy rain event scenario. Responses varied between the EMs in which products they found most practical or least useful. Most EMs believed that there was a high probability for flooding, as illustrated by the degree of forecasted precipitation intensity. Most confirmed perceiving uncertainty in the different forecast representations, sharing the idea that there is an inherent uncertainty that follows modeled forecasts. The long-term goal of this research is to develop and add reliable probabilistic forecast products to the "toolbox" of decision-makers to help them better assess hazardous weather information and improve warning notifications and response.

Vincente, Vanessa

316

A modeling study of contaminant transport resulting from flooding of Pit 9 at the Radioactive Waste Management Complex, Idaho National Engineering Laboratory  

SciTech Connect

A simulation study was conducted to determine if dissolved-phase transport due to flooding is a viable mechanism for explaining the presence of radionuclides in sedimentary interbeds below the Radioactive Waste Management Complex. In particular, the study focused on {sup 241}Am migration due to flooding of Pit 9 in 1969. A kinetically-controlled source term model was used to estimate the mass of {sup 241}Am that leached as a function of a variable surface infiltration rate. This mass release rate was then used in a numerical simulation of unsaturated flow and transport to estimate the advance due to flooding of the {sup 241}Am front down towards the 110 ft interbed. The simulation included the effect of fractures by superimposing them onto elements that represented the basalt matrix. For the base case, hydraulic and transport parameters were assigned using the best available data. The advance of the {sup 241}Am front due to flooding for this case was minimal, on the order of a few meters. This was due to the strong tendency for {sup 241}Am to sorb onto both basalts and sediments. In addition to the base case simulation, a parametric sensitivity study was conducted which tested the effect of sorption in the fractures, in the kinetic source term, and in the basalt matrix. Of these, the only case which resulted in significant transport was when there was no sorption in the basalt matrix. The indication being that other processes such as transport by radiocolloids or organic complexation may have contributed. However, caution is advised in interpreting these results due to approximations in the numerical method that was used incorporate fractures into the simulation. The approximations are a result of fracture apertures being significantly smaller than the elements over which they are superimposed. The sensitivity of the {sup 241}Am advance to the assumed hydraulic conductivity for the fractures was also tested.

Magnuson, S.O.; Sondrup, A.J.

1992-09-01

317

"Fossil" Forecasting.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Presents a density study in which students calculate the density of limestone substrate to determine if the specimen contains any fossils. Explains how to make fossils and addresses national standards. (YDS)

Brody, Michael J.; deOnis, Ann

2001-01-01

318

Flood Aftermath, Boulder, Colo.  

USGS Multimedia Gallery

This flooded culvert is located on Monarch Road just east of the Diagonal Highway in Boulder, Colo. Numerous rivers flooded during a significant September 2013 rain event along Colorado's Front Range, damaging or destroying several USGS streamgages. In response, USGS field crews measured flood...

319

HESS Opinions "On forecast (in)consistency in a hydro-meteorological chain: curse or blessing?"  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flood forecasting increasingly relies on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts to achieve longer lead times (see Cloke et al., 2009; Cloke and Pappenberger, 2009). One of the key difficulties that is emerging in constructing a decision framework for these flood forecasts is when consecutive forecasts are different, leading to different conclusions regarding the issuing of forecasts, and hence inconsistent. In this opinion paper we explore some of the issues surrounding such forecast inconsistency (also known as "jumpiness", "turning points", "continuity" or number of "swings"; Zoster et al., 2009; Mills and Pepper, 1999; Lashley et al., 2008). We begin by defining what forecast inconsistency is; why forecasts might be inconsistent; how we should analyse it; what we should do about it; how we should communicate it and whether it is a totally undesirable property. The property of consistency is increasingly emerging as a hot topic in many forecasting environments (for a limited discussion on NWP inconsistency see Persson, 2011). However, in this opinion paper we restrict the discussion to a hydro-meteorological forecasting chain in which river discharge forecasts are produced using inputs from NWP. In this area of research (in)consistency is receiving recent interest and application (see e.g., Bartholmes et al., 2008; Pappenberger et al., 2011).

Pappenberger, F.; Cloke, H. L.; Persson, A.; Demeritt, D.

2011-01-01

320

Ensemble Forecasting at NCEP and the Breeding Method  

Microsoft Academic Search

The breeding method has been used to generate perturbations for ensemble forecasting at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (formerly known as the National Meteorological Center) since December 1992. At that time a single breeding cycle with a pair of bred forecasts was implemented. In March 1994, the ensemble was expanded to seven independent breeding cycles on the Cray C90

Zoltan Toth; Eugenia Kalnay

1997-01-01

321

Western U.S. Water Supply Forecasting: A Tradition Evolves  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Since 2011, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) and three major river forecasting centers of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) have discontinued a long-standing practice of publishing consensus water supply forecasts in western U.S. river basins.

Pagano, Thomas; Wood, Andrew; Werner, Kevin; Tama-Sweet, Rashawn

2014-01-01

322

Flood and drought disasters and water resource management in Xinjiang  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xinjiang located in the center of Eurasia and is far away from oceans. It features arid and semiarid continental climate, large area and complex terrestrial. The ecological system in Xinjiang is very fragile and changeable. Water resource management is critical to the development of local economy, especially to agriculture and livestock. Droughts occurred frequently in Xinjiang. On the other hand, mountains floods erupted in some years. In these years, snow melted rapidly because of mountains precipitation increasing abnormly and temperature getting higher. In these cases, mountains floods occurred easily. We have some experiences on forecasting these kinds of floods, for example, if 24h accumulated precipitation exceeds 25mm within 200km in mountains area, floods may happen. Another interesting fact is that we monitored through satellite images that there are heavy precipitations in the center of Tarim basin, this is very important to local water resource management. So accurate predictions of drought and flood disasters are very important to water resource management. This paper reports some research results of rules of drought and flood occurring and some forecasting methods

Lu, Guoying

2003-07-01

323

Visualising interactive flood risk maps in a dynamic Geobrowser  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Communicating flood forecast products effectively to end-users is the final step in the flood event simulation process. A prototype of the Novel Flood Early Warning System (NEWS) based on the TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) database explores new avenues to visualise flood forecast products in a dynamic and interactive manner. One of the possibilities NEWS is currently assessing is Google Maps. Google Maps is a basic web mapping service application and technology provided by Google, free (for non-commercial use). It powers many map-based services including maps embedded on third-party websites via the Google Maps API. Creating a customized map interface requires adding the Google JavaScript code to a page, and then using Javascript functions to add points to the map. Flood maps allow end-users to visualise and navigate a world that is too large and complex to be seen directly. The NEWS software will attempt to deal with the following issues: • Uncertainty visualization in hazards maps • Visualizing uncertainty for sector specific risk managers • Uncertainty representation of point and linear data The objective is improve the information content of flood risk maps making them more useful to specific end-users.

Yaw Manful, Desmond; He, Yi; Cloke, Hannah; Pappenberger, Florian; Li, Zhijia; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Huang, Yingchun; Hu, Yuzhong

2010-05-01

324

Forecasting the 12-14 March 1993 superstorm  

SciTech Connect

This paper describes the decision-making process used by the forecasters in the National Meteorological Center`s (NMC`s) Meterolological Operations Division and in Weather Forecast Offices of the National Weather Service to provide the successful forecasts of the superstorm of 12-14 March 1993. This review illustrates (1) the difficult decisions forecasters faced when using sometimes conflicting model guidance, (2) the forecasters` success in recognizing the mesoscale aspects of the storm as it began to develop and move along the Gulf and East Coasts of the United States, and (3) their ability to produce one of the most successful heavy snow and blizzard forecasts ever for a major winter storm that affected the eastern third of the United States. The successful aspects of the forecasts include the following. (1) Cyclogenesis was predicted up to 5 days prior to its onset. (2) The unusual intensity of the storm was predicted three days in advance, allowing forecasters, government officials, and the media ample time to prepare the public, marine, and aviation interests to take precautions for the protection of life and property. (3) The excessive amounts and areal distribution of snowfall were prediceted two days in advance of its onset. (4) An extensive number of blizzard watches and warnings were issued throughout the eastern United States with unprecedented lead times. (5) The coordination of forecasts within the National Weather Service and between the National Weather Service, private forecasters, and media meteorologists was perhaps the most extensive in recent history.

Uccellini, L.W.; Kocin, P.J.; Schneider, R.S.; Stokols, P.M.; Dorr, R.A. [National Weather Service, Camp Springs, MD (United States)] [National Weather Service, Camp Springs, MD (United States); [National Weather Service, Bohemia, NY (United States)

1995-02-01

325

Improved Anvil Forecasting  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

This report describes the outcome of Phase 1 of the AMU's Improved Anvil Forecasting task. Forecasters in the 45th Weather Squadron and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group have found that anvil forecasting is a difficult task when predicting LCC and FR violations. The purpose of this task is to determine the technical feasibility of creating an anvil-forecasting tool. Work on this study was separated into three steps: literature search, forecaster discussions, and determination of technical feasibility. The literature search revealed no existing anvil-forecasting techniques. However, there appears to be growing interest in anvils in recent years. If this interest continues to grow, more information will be available to aid in developing a reliable anvil-forecasting tool. The forecaster discussion step revealed an array of methods on how better forecasting techniques could be developed. The forecasters have ideas based on sound meteorological principles and personal experience in forecasting and analyzing anvils. Based on the information gathered in the discussions with the forecasters, the conclusion of this report is that it is technically feasible at this time to develop an anvil forecasting technique that will significantly contribute to the confidence in anvil forecasts.

Lambert, Winifred C.

2000-01-01

326

Convective Weather Forecast Accuracy Analysis at Center and Sector Levels  

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

This paper presents a detailed convective forecast accuracy analysis at center and sector levels. The study is aimed to provide more meaningful forecast verification measures to aviation community, as well as to obtain useful information leading to the improvements in the weather translation capacity models. In general, the vast majority of forecast verification efforts over past decades have been on the calculation of traditional standard verification measure scores over forecast and observation data analyses onto grids. These verification measures based on the binary classification have been applied in quality assurance of weather forecast products at the national level for many years. Our research focuses on the forecast at the center and sector levels. We calculate the standard forecast verification measure scores for en-route air traffic centers and sectors first, followed by conducting the forecast validation analysis and related verification measures for weather intensities and locations at centers and sectors levels. An approach to improve the prediction of sector weather coverage by multiple sector forecasts is then developed. The weather severe intensity assessment was carried out by using the correlations between forecast and actual weather observation airspace coverage. The weather forecast accuracy on horizontal location was assessed by examining the forecast errors. The improvement in prediction of weather coverage was determined by the correlation between actual sector weather coverage and prediction. observed and forecasted Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM) data collected from June to September in 2007. CWAM zero-minute forecast data with aircraft avoidance probability of 60% and 80% are used as the actual weather observation. All forecast measurements are based on 30-minute, 60- minute, 90-minute, and 120-minute forecasts with the same avoidance probabilities. The forecast accuracy analysis for times under one-hour showed that the errors in intensity and location for center forecast are relatively low. For example, 1-hour forecast intensity and horizontal location errors for ZDC center were about 0.12 and 0.13. However, the correlation between sector 1-hour forecast and actual weather coverage was weak, for sector ZDC32, about 32% of the total variation of observation weather intensity was unexplained by forecast; the sector horizontal location error was about 0.10. The paper also introduces an approach to estimate the sector three-dimensional actual weather coverage by using multiple sector forecasts, which turned out to produce better predictions. Using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model for this approach, the correlations between actual observation and the multiple sector forecast model prediction improved by several percents at 95% confidence level in comparison with single sector forecast.

Wang, Yao; Sridhar, Banavar

2010-01-01

327

Application of a medium-range global hydrologic probabilistic forecast scheme to the Ohio River Basin  

SciTech Connect

A 10-day globally applicable flood prediction scheme was evaluated using the Ohio River basin as a test site for the period 2003-2007. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model was initialized with the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis temperatures and wind, and Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission Multi Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) precipitation up to the day of forecast. In forecast mode, the VIC model was then forced with a calibrated and statistically downscaled ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) 10-day ensemble forecast. A parallel set up was used where ECMWF EPS forecasts were interpolated to the spatial scale of the hydrology model. Each set of forecasts was extended by 5 days using monthly mean climatological variables and zero precipitation in order to account for the effect of initial conditions. The 15-day spatially distributed ensemble runoff forecasts were then routed to four locations in the basin, each with different drainage areas. Surrogates for observed daily runoff and flow were provided by the reference run, specifically VIC simulation forced with ECMWF analysis fields and TMPA precipitation fields. The flood prediction scheme using the calibrated and downscaled ECMWF EPS forecasts was shown to be more accurate and reliable than interpolated forecasts for both daily distributed runoff forecasts and daily flow forecasts. Initial and antecedent conditions dominated the flow forecasts for lead times shorter than the time of concentration depending on the flow forecast amounts and the drainage area sizes. The flood prediction scheme had useful skill for the 10 following days at all sites.

Voisin, Nathalie; Pappenberger, Florian; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Buizza, Roberto; Schaake, John

2011-08-15

328

Flood routing in channels with flood plains  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Experimental data on unsteady flows in a channel with flood plains obtained in a laboratory test facility are presented. Flood flow at the upstream end of the channel was produced by an electrically actuated butterfly valve in the supply pipe. Water level variations were recorded at nine stations along the channel using capacitance probes and a computerized data acquisition system. Tests were conducted for various initial conditions, and duration and peak of the flood wave. Complete data for two tests are presented which may be used to verify numerical models. A one-dimensional numerical model was developed to simulate flood flow. The model solves the St. Venant equations by using the Preissmann four-point implicit finite-difference scheme. The suitability of two procedures for approximating the channel cross-section is investigated: (1) the flow velocity over the flood plains is negligible, the flood plain acts as storage only and does not contribute to the momentum (the flood plains and the main channel are separated by a vertical line at their interface and the division line is not included in the wetted perimeter); (2) the entire channel section contributes to momentum flux, the entire channel section has uniform average flow velocity and the non-uniform velocity is taken into consideration by a momentum coefficient. Although comparisons between the computed and experimental results are satisfactory in both cases, Approximation (1) gives better results than Approximation (2).

Mizanur Rashid, R. S. M.; Hanif Chaudhry, M.

1995-09-01

329

A neural network short-term forecast of significant thunderstorms  

SciTech Connect

Neural networks, an artificial-intelligence tools that excels in pattern recognition, are reviewed, and a 3-7-h significant thunderstorm forecast developed with this technique is discussed. Two neural networks learned to forecast significant thunderstorms from fields of surface-based lifted index and surface moisture convergence. These networks are sensitive to the patterns that skilled forecasters recognize as occurring prior to strong thunderstorms. The two neural networks are combined operationally at the National Severe Storm Forecast Center into a single hourly product that enhances pattern-recognition skills. Examples of neural network products are shown, and their potential impact on significant thunderstorm forecasting is demonstrated. 22 refs.

Mccann, D.W. (NOAA, National Severe Storms Forecast Center, Kansas City, MO (United States))

1992-09-01

330

Addressing the Challenges of Distributed Hydrologic Modeling for Operational Forecasting  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Operational forecasting systems must provide reliable, accurate and timely flood forecasts for a range of catchments from small rapidly responding mountain catchments and urban areas to large, complex but more slowly responding fluvial systems. Flood forecasting systems have evolved from simple forecasting for flood mitigation to real-time decision support systems for real-time reservoir operations for water supply, navigation, hydropower, for managing environmental flows and habitat protection, cooling water and water quality forecasting. These different requirements lead to a number of challenges in applying distributed modelling in an operational context. These challenges include, the often short time available for forecasting that requires a trade-off between model complexity and accuracy on the one hand and on the other hand the need for efficient calculations to reduce the computation times. Limitations in the data available in real-time require modelling tools that can not only operate on a minimum of data but also take advantage of new data sources such as weather radar, satellite remote sensing, wireless sensors etc. Finally, models must not only accurately predict flood peaks but also forecast low flows and surface water-groundwater interactions, water quality, water temperature, optimal reservoir levels, and inundated areas. This paper shows how these challenges are being addressed in a number of case studies. The central strategy has been to develop a flexible modelling framework that can be adapted to different data sources, different levels of complexity and spatial distribution and different modelling objectives. The resulting framework allows amongst other things, optimal use of grid-based precipitation fields from weather radar and numerical weather models, direct integration of satellite remote sensing, a unique capability to treat a range of new forecasting problems such as flooding conditioned by surface water-groundwater interactions. Results from flood modelling on the Odra River in Poland show that this model system can perform as well as traditional models and gives good predictions in mountainous catchments. By allowing different process representations to be applied within the same framework, it is possible to develop hydrological models in a phased manner. This phased approach was used for example in the Napa Valley, California where it is important to balance water demands for urban areas, agriculture, and ecosystem preservation while maintaining flood protection and water quality. A first regional model was developed with a detailed description of the surface process and a simple linear reservoir was used to simulate the groundwater component. Then a more detailed fully-distributed finite-difference groundwater model was constructed within the same framework while maintaining the surface water components. In the DMIP case study, Blue River, Oklahoma, this flexibility has been used to evaluate the performance of different model structures, and to determine the impact of grid resolution on model accuracy. The results show clear limits to the benefit attained by increasing model complexity and resolution. In contrast, detailed flood mapping using high resolution topography carried out with this tool in South Boulder Creek, Colorado show that very detailed description of the topography and flows paths are required for accurate flood mapping and determination of the flood risk. This framework is now being used to develop a flood forecasting system for the Big Cypress Basin in Florida.

Butts, M. B.; Yamagata, K.; Kobor, J.; Fontenot, E.

2008-05-01

331

Biological implications of the 1996 controlled flood  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The 1996 controlled flood provided evidence that elevated releases from Glen Canyon Dam can enhance short-term primary and secondary production of aquatic resources of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon National Park. The flood scoured substantial proportions of benthic algae and macroinvertebrates and removed fine sediments from the channel, which ultimately stimulated primary productivity and consumer biomass. Channel margin sand deposits buried riparian vegetation and leaf litter, entraining nutrients for later incorporation into the upper trophic levels. The flood restructured high-stage sand bars and associated eddy return channels (i.e., backwaters used as nurseries by native and non-native fish), but many were short-lived because reattachment bars were eroded shortly after the flood. The flood was of insufficient magnitude to permanently suppress non-native fish populations, even though there was significant population depletion at some collecting sites. Pre-spawning aggregations, spawning ascents of tributaries, and habitat use by native fishes were unaffected by the flood. Adult rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in the Lees Ferry tailwater fishery were also unaffected, but the proportion of juveniles <152 mm total length decreased by 10% a strong year class following the flood indicated replacement through successful reproduction.

Valdez, Richard A.; Shannon, Joseph P.; Blinn, Dean W.

332

A case study in coastal flooding analysis  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Floods are among the most frequent and costly natural disasters in terms of human hardship and economic loss. Depending on topography, soil condition, ground cover, human settlements and other factors, flood can produce catastrophic impacts both in terms of damages and modification of the landscape. The Salerno province experienced numerous flooding events after heavy thunderstorm, that triggered intense landslides (debris-mudflow), inundations, denudation, shore line progradation, etc. Recent study (Porfido et al. 2009) show that in this area more than 100 flooding events occurred since 1500. Among these four events have been estimate in the maximum severity class. Research into the historical flooding highlights the case of the event of 11 November 1773 as one of the major flooding occurred in Cava de' Tirreni, Campanian region, Southern Italy. About 400 - 450 people died; severe damage to the buildings were registered in a wide area of the Salerno province; several mud flows invested large areas of coastal territory which caused progradation phenomena of the shoreline of several hundreds of meters. The main objectives of this paper are: the historical reconstruction of the event considering contemporary documents found at Archives and National Libreries; characterization of the rainfall timing using historical descriptions; delimitation of inundated area; distribution of damage levels and identification and classification of flood-induced geological phenomena.

Esposito, E.; Porfido, S.; Santoro, G.; Violante, C.; Foscari, G.; Sciarrotta, S.; Alaia, F.

2009-04-01

333

Flood analyses for Department of Energy Y-12, ORNL and K-25 Plants. Flood analyses in support of flood emergency planning  

SciTech Connect

The study involved defining the flood potential and local rainfall depth and duration data for the Department of Energy`s (DOE) Y-12, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and K-25 plants. All three plants are subject to flooding from the Clinch River. In addition, the Y-12 plant is subject to flooding from East Fork Poplar and Bear Creeks, the ORNL plant from Whiteoak Creek and Melton Branch, and the K-25 plant from Poplar Creek. Determination of flood levels included consideration of both rainfall events and postulated failures of Norris and Melton Hill Dams in seismic events.

NONE

1995-05-01

334

A Comparison of Multisensor Precipitation Estimation Methods in Complex Terrain for Flash Flood Warning and Mitigation  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Investigating the uncertainties and improving the accuracy of quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) is a critical mission of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). QPE is extremely challenging in regions of complex terrain like the western U.S. because of the sparse coverage of ground-based radar, complex orographic precipitation processes, and the effects of beam blockages (e.g., Westrick et al. 1999). In addition, the rain gauge density in complex terrain is often inadequate to capture spatial variability in the precipitation patterns. The NOAA Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) conducts research on precipitation and weather conditions that can lead to flooding, and fosters transition of scientific advances and new tools into forecasting operations (see hmt.noaa.gov). The HMT program consists of a series of demonstration projects in different geographical regions to enhance understanding of region specific processes related to precipitation, including QPE. There are a number of QPE systems that are widely used across NOAA for precipitation estimation (e.g., Cifelli et al. 2011; Chandrasekar et al. 2012). Two of these systems have been installed at the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory: Multisensor Precipitation Estimator (MPE) and National Mosaic and Multi-sensor QPE (NMQ) developed by NWS and NSSL, respectively. Both provide gridded QPE products that include radar-only, gauge-only and gauge-radar-merged, etc; however, these systems often provide large differences in QPE (in terms of amounts and spatial patterns) due to differences in Z-R selection, vertical profile of reflectivity correction, and gauge interpolation procedures. Determining the appropriate QPE product and quantification of QPE uncertainty is critical for operational applications, including water management decisions and flood warnings. For example, hourly QPE is used to correct radar based rain rates used by the Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction (FFMP) package in the NWS forecast offices for issuance of flash flood warnings. This study will evaluate the performance of MPE and NMQ QPE products using independent gauges, object identification techniques for spatial verification and impact on surface runoff using a distributed hydrologic model. The effort will consist of baseline evaluations of these QPE systems to determine which combination of algorithm features is appropriate as well as investigate new methods for combining the gage and radar data. The Russian River Basin in California is used to demonstrate the comparison methodology with data collected from several rainfall events in March 2012.

Cifelli, R.; Chen, H.; Chandrasekar, C. V.; Willie, D.; Reynolds, D.; Campbell, C.; Zhang, Y.; Sukovich, E.

2012-12-01

335

Coupling Radar Rainfall Estimation and Hydrological Modelling For Flash-flood Hazard Mitigation  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flood risk mitigation is accomplished through managing either or both the hazard and vulnerability. Flood hazard may be reduced through structural measures which alter the frequency of flood levels in the area. The vulnerability of a community to flood loss can be mitigated through changing or regulating land use and through flood warning and effective emergency response. When dealing with flash-flood hazard, it is gener- ally accepted that the most effective way (and in many instances the only affordable in a sustainable perspective) to mitigate the risk is by reducing the vulnerability of the involved communities, in particular by implementing flood warning systems and community self-help programs. However, both the inherent characteristics of the at- mospheric and hydrologic processes involved in flash-flooding and the changing soci- etal needs provide a tremendous challenge to traditional flood forecasting and warning concepts. In fact, the targets of these systems are traditionally localised like urbanised sectors or hydraulic structures. Given the small spatial scale that characterises flash floods and the development of dispersed urbanisation, transportation, green tourism and water sports, human lives and property are exposed to flash flood risk in a scat- tered manner. This must be taken into consideration in flash flood warning strategies and the investigated region should be considered as a whole and every section of the drainage network as a potential target for hydrological warnings. Radar technology offers the potential to provide information describing rain intensities almost contin- uously in time and space. Recent research results indicate that coupling radar infor- mation to distributed hydrologic modelling can provide hydrologic forecasts at all potentially flooded points of a region. Nevertheless, very few flood warning services use radar data more than on a qualitative basis. After a short review of current under- standing in this area, two issues are examined: advantages and caveats of using radar rainfall estimates in operational flash flood forecasting, methodological problems as- sociated to the use of hydrological models for distributed flash flood forecasting with rainfall input estimated from radar.

Borga, M.; Creutin, J. D.

336

EMISSIONS FORECASTS FOR INDUSTRIAL PROCESS SOURCES  

EPA Science Inventory

The report gives national and regional air emissions forecasts from several sulfur oxide and nitrogen oxide (SOx and NOx) emissions control Process Model Projection Technique (PROMPT) test runs. PROMPT, one of a number of National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program emission fo...

337

Urban flood risk mitigation: from vulnerability assessment to resilient city  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urban flood risk mitigation: from vulnerability assessment to resilient city Bruno Barroca1, Damien Serre2 1Laboratory of Urban Engineering, Environment and Building (L G U E H) - Université de Marne-la-Vallée - Pôle Ville, 5, Bd Descartes - Bâtiment Lavoisier - 77454 Marne la Vallée Cedex 2 - France 2City of Paris Engineering School, Construction - Environment Department, 15 rue Fénelon, 75010 Paris, France In France, as in Europe and more generally throughout the world, river floods have been increasing in frequency and severity over the last ten years, and there are more instances of rivers bursting their banks, aggravating the impact of the flooding of areas supposedly protected by flood defenses. Despite efforts made to well maintain the flood defense assets, we often observe flood defense failures leading to finally increase flood risk in protected area during major flood events. Furthermore, flood forecasting models, although they benefit continuous improvements, remain partly inaccurate due to uncertainties populated all along data calculation processes. These circumstances obliged stakeholders and the scientific communities to manage flood risk by integrating new concepts like stakes management, vulnerability assessments and more recently urban resilience development. Definitively, the goal is to reduce flood risk by managing of course flood defenses and improving flood forecasting models, but also stakes and vulnerability of flooded areas to achieve urban resilience face to flood events. Vulnerability to flood is essentially concentrated in urban areas. Assessing vulnerability of a city is very difficult. Indeed, urban area is a complex system composed by a sum of technical sub-systems as complex as the urban area itself. Assessing city vulnerability consists in talking into account each sub system vulnerability and integrating all direct and indirect impacts generally depending from city shape and city spatial organization. At this time, although some research activities have been undertaken, there are no specific methods and tools to assess flood vulnerability at the scale of the city. Indeed, by studying literature we can list some vulnerability indicators and a few Geographic Information System (GIS) tools. But generally indicators and GIS are not developed specifically at the city scale: often a regional scale is used. Analyzing vulnerability at this scale needs more accurate and formalized indicators and GIS tools. The second limit of existing GIS is temporal: even if vulnerability could be assessed and localized through GIS, such tools cannot assist city managers in their decision to efficiency recover after a severe flood event. Due to scale and temporal limits, methods and tools available to assess urban vulnerability need large improvements. Talking into account all these considerations and limits, our research is focusing on: • vulnerability indicators design; • recovery scenarios design; • GIS for city vulnerability assessment and recovery scenarios. Dealing with vulnerability indicators, the goal is to design a set of indicators of city sub systems. Sub systems are seen like assets of high value and complex and interdependent infrastructure networks (i.e. power supplies, communications, water, transport etc.). The infrastructure networks are critical for the continuity of economic activities as well as for the people's basic living needs. Their availability is also required for fast and effective recovery after flood disasters. The severity of flood damage therefore largely depends on the degree that both high value assets and critical urban infrastructure are affected, either directly or indirectly. To face the challenge of designing indicators, a functional model of the city system (and sub systems) has to be built to analyze the system response to flood solicitation. Then, a coherent and an efficient set of vulnerability of indicators could be built up. With such methods city stakeholders will be informed on how and how much their systems are vulnerable. It is a first level of inform

Serre, D.; Barroca, B.

2009-04-01

338

The Forecast Process  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This undergraduate meteorology tutorial from Texas A&M University introduces the recommended procedure for forecasting, and allows students to follow along as the instructor reasons his way to a forecast for two cities in the United States.

Nielsen-Gammon, John

1996-01-01

339

Technology Forecasting Introduction 333  

E-print Network

Technology Forecasting Introduction 333 Iridium and the Challenges of Uncertainty and Technology- mercial adoption issues. The case of the Iridium satellite platform is particularly illustrative as Internet sources (Iridium; Whalen). Iridium and the Challenges of Uncertainty and Technology Forecasting

340

NOAA'S CLIMATE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS: INITIAL ASSESSMENT OF UTILITY FOR AGRICULTURAL APPLICATIONS  

Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

Experimental seasonal precipitation climate forecasts are issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center. These forecasts specify the probabilities for total precipitation relative to climatological distributions, for 13 overlapping 3-month periods coverin...

341

AN OPERATIONAL EVALUATION OF THE ETA-CMAQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST MODEL  

EPA Science Inventory

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), in collaboration with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), are developing an Air Quality Forecasting Program that will eventually result in an operational Nationwide Air Quality Forecasting System. The initial pha...

342

Flood in Central Europe: Could ECMWF have provided early warnings?  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The summer 2002 will be remembered for the floods that devastated many parts of Central Europe. Early warnings 3 to 4 days in advance might have mitigated some of the devastations. Both synoptic and quantitative aspects of ECMWF deterministic and ensemble forecasts will be discussed. It will be shown that although some indication of large rainfall accumulation could be found in the forecasts, their location did vary a lot throughout the forecast range. Sources of this inconsistency will be briefly addressed. It will be concluded that although ECMWF forecasts could have triggered early warnings, the low detection level needed would in other cases generate large numbers of false alarms. It is not clear therefore how such a positive but small level of skill could be used in practice.

Grazzini, F.; van der Grijn, G. A.

2003-04-01

343

Principles of Forecasting Project  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Directed by J. Scott Armstrong at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, the Principles of Forecasting Project seeks to "develop a comprehensive and structured review of the state of knowledge in the field of forecasting" in order to aid future research. The project will lead to a book entitled Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners, and sample chapters, contact information, updates, and links to forecasting resources add value to this expanding compilation.

344

Communicating Uncertainties in Weather and Climate Information: Results of a National Academies Workshop  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

When a major East Coast snowstorm was forecast during the winter of 2001, people began preparing - both the public and the decision-makers responsible for public services. There was an air of urgency, heightened because just the previous year the region had been hit hard by a storm of unpredicted strength. But this time, the storm never materialized and people were left wondering what went "wrong" with the forecast. Did something go wrong or did forecasters just fail to communicate their information in an effective way? Did they convey a sense of the likelihood of the event and keep people up to date as information changed? In the summer of 2001, the National Academies' Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate hosted a workshop designed to explore the communication of uncertainty in weather and climate information. Workshop participants examined five case studies that were chosen to illustrate a range of forecast timescales and certainty levels. The cases were: Red River Flood, Grand Forks, April 1997; East Coast Winter Storm, March 2001; Oklahoma-Kansas Tornado Outbreak, May 3, 1999; El Nino 1997-1998, and Climate Change Science, a report issued in 2001. In each of these cases, participants examined who said what, when, to whom, how, and with what effect. The last two cases specifically address climate-related topics. This paper summarizes the final workshop report (Communicating Uncertainties in Weather and Climate Information: Summary of a Workshop, NRC 2002), including an overview of the five cases and lessons learned about communicating uncertainties in weather and climate forecasts. Among other findings, the report stresses that communication and appropriate dissemination of information, including information about uncertainty in the forecasts and the forecaster's confidence in the product, should be an integral, ongoing part of the forecasting process, not an afterthought. Explaining uncertainty should be an integral part of what weather and climate forecasters do and is essential to delivering accurate and useful information.

Friday, E.; Barron, E. J.; Elfring, C.; Geller, L.

2002-12-01

345

Forecasting Eastern Mediterranean Droughts  

Microsoft Academic Search

A dynamically motivated statistical forecasting scheme for eastern Mediterranean winter rainfall is presented. The scheme is based on North Atlantic sea level pressure precursors. The resulting forecasts are robust and statistically significant at ;13 months lead time, and improve at ;7 months lead. It is suggested that these forecasts form a foundation for an operational early-warning system for eastern Mediterranean

Gidon Eshel; Mark A. Cane; Brian F. Farrell

2000-01-01

346

Rainfall-River Forecasting  

E-print Network

Rainfall-River Forecasting: Overview of NOAA's Role, Responsibilities, and Services Rainfall-River Services Division NWS Headquarters Steve Buan Service Coordination Hydrologist NWS North Central River Forecast Center Rainfall-River Forecasting Joint Summit II October 19, 2008 St. Paul, Minnesota 1 #12

US Army Corps of Engineers

347

FOMC consensus forecasts  

Microsoft Academic Search

In November 2007, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a change in the way it communicates its view of the economic outlook: It increased the frequency of its forecasts from two to four times per year, and it increased the length of the forecasting horizon from two to three years. The FOMC does not release the individual members' forecasts

William T. Gavin; Geetanjali Pande

2008-01-01

348

Technology Forecasting Scenario Development  

E-print Network

Technology Forecasting and Scenario Development Newsletter No. 1 June 1998 Systems Analysis research programme (tenta- tively titled: Technology Forecasting and Scenario Development). The tentative. This newsletter presents the status on the Risø initiative on technology forecasting and scenario development

349

Assimilation of NASA MODIS Flood Mapping Product into Operational Flash Flood Warning Systems  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Regional operational systems that support forecasters for the real-time warning of flash flood events have been implemented worldwide in the last decade. These systems provide hydrological and meteorological agencies the tools to make possible timely alerts and warnings for flash floods in small basins (area of order of 100 km2). The output of the model consists of indices that estimate the amount of rain of a certain duration that is needed over a given small basin in order to cause minor flooding (bankfull flow) at its outlet. These indices are adjusted and used with local available data and nowcast products by forecasters and enable the generation of prompt flash flood warnings and alerts. Soil moisture is the principal state variable in estimating the rainfall-runoff relationship in a given catchment. Antecedent soil moisture conditions directly impact the ability of additional precipitation to infiltrate, rather than becoming surface runoff. In the operational systems the focus is on the water balance over the flash-flood prone small watersheds. Backwater catchment inundation from swollen rivers or regional groundwater inputs is not significant over the spatial and temporal scales for the majority of the upland flash flood prone basins, and as such, these effects are not considered. However, some lowland areas and flat terrain near large rivers experience standing water long after local precipitation has ceased as a result of phenomena outside of local forcing. The NASA Office of Applied Science is producing an experimental product from the MODIS instrument on the Terra and Aqua satellites that detects standing water, beyond reference water, at a daily time interval and with a 250m resolution. This presentation discusses the potential utility of this product to adjust the soil water estimates of the operational systems for flash flood prone basins in low lying areas to improve local flash flood warnings. Given that a portion of the catchment area is inundated, the total volume of the upper soil water content of the catchment can be expressed with respect to the proportion of inundated area, and with respect to the modeled soil saturation fraction and its error. These relations are used to derive an error estimate for the modeled soil saturation fraction; whereby, the soil saturation fraction model state can be updated given the availability of observed inundation. At its limit, the difference between modeled soil saturation fraction estimates and unity, representing full inundation, for those basin-days experiencing full inundation was found to be nearly normally distributed. In order to represent uncertainty in error estimates, conditional sampling was used to generate an ensemble of model error estimates for a given range of modeled upper soil water. Those error estimates were used in the context of Monte Carlo ensemble forecasting of soil water and flash flood potential. Numerical experiments with six months of data (July 2012 - December 2012) showed that MODIS inundation data, when assimilated to correct soil moisture estimates, increased the likelihood that bankfull flow would occur, over non-assimilated modeling, at catchment outlets for approximately 44% of basin-days during the study time period. For these basins this is a significant reduction of the bias that leads forecasters to underestimate local flash flood threat.

Posner, A. J.; Georgakakos, K. P.; Shamir, E.

2013-12-01

350

A Large-Scale Experiment to Determine the Effectiveness of Controlled Floods and Tamarisk Removal in Rehabilitating the Green River, Dinosaur National Monument, Colorado  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A large-scale field experiment is underway on the Green River in the Canyon of Lodore to evaluate the effectiveness of tamarisk (Tamarix ramosissima) removal and increased magnitude and duration of floods released from Flaming Gorge Dam (FGD) for the purpose of increasing active channel width and increasing entrainment rates on gravel bars where there are large proportions of fines. Results to date demonstrate that effectiveness varies with small scale geomorphic setting, and that channel widening in some parts of the river may be impossible without regular removal, which is unlikely. Our approach is important in channel rehabilitation planning, yet the difficulties of conducting such experiments are apparent in the first 2 yrs of the project. All tamarisk are being removed in 3, 0.8 to 1.6 km long study reaches. Three control reaches, immediately upstream or downstream from removal reaches, are also being monitored. We are making detailed measurements of scour and fill, substrate, and composition of riparian vegetation communities in removal and control reaches, and in response to high flood releases from FGD. Difficulties in implementation of the experiment include the multi-year process of tamarisk removal. Tamarisk immediately reestablishes itself on moist substrate following removal; thus, some parts of removal reaches have young tamarisk seedlings and other parts have tamarisk not yet removed. Experimental dam releases have not yet occurred due to drought in the watershed and other water delivery imperatives. We have also compared the distribution of tamarisk on the nearby Yampa River, where an unregulated flow regime exists and where tamarisk are absent or in low densities. The comparison between the distribution, density, and age characteristics of tamarisk on the 2 streams will lead to recommendations as to the sites on the Green River where eradication efforts are best directed. Despite the difficulties of experiment implementation, such large-scale efforts are an essential component of developing a long-term plan for dam releases, because they will lead to definition of a schedule of floods, or repeated removal activities, necessary to achieve project goals.

Schmidt, J. C.; Cooper, D. J.; Larson, G. P.

2002-12-01

351

In Brief: Forecasting meningitis threats  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), in conjunction with a team of health and weather organizations, has launched a project to provide weather forecasts to medical officials in Africa to help reduce outbreaks of meningitis. The forecasts will enable local health care providers to target vaccination programs more effectively. In 2009, meteorologists with the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is managed by UCAR, will begin issuing 14-day forecasts of atmospheric conditions in Ghana. Later, UCAR plans to work closely with health experts from several African countries to design and test a decision support system to provide health officials with useful meteorological information. ``By targeting forecasts in regions where meningitis is a threat, we may be able to help vulnerable populations. Ultimately, we hope to build on this project and provide information to public health programs battling weather-related diseases in other parts of the world,'' said Rajul Pandya, director of UCAR's Community Building Program. Funding for the project comes from a $900,000 grant from Google.org, the philanthropic arm of the Internet search company.

Showstack, Randy

2008-12-01

352

Assessment of flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flood is one of the most significant natural hazards in Japan. The Tokyo metropolitan area has been affected by several large flood disasters. Therefore, investigating potential flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area is important for development of adaptation strategy for future climate change. We aim to develop a method for evaluating flood risk in Tokyo Metropolitan area by considering effect of historical land use and land cover change, socio-economic change, and climatic change. Ministry of land, infrastructure, transport and tourism in Japan published 'Statistics of flood', which contains data for flood causes, number of damaged houses, area of wetted surface, and total amount of damage for each flood at small municipal level. By using these flood data, we estimated damage by inundation inside a levee for each prefecture based on a statistical method. On the basis of estimated damage, we developed flood risk curves in the Tokyo metropolitan area, representing relationship between damage and exceedance probability of flood for the period 1976-2008 for each prefecture. Based on the flood risk curve, we attempted evaluate potential flood risk in the Tokyo metropolitan area and clarify the cause for regional difference of flood risk. By analyzing flood risk curves, we found out regional differences of flood risk. We identified high flood risk in Tokyo and Saitama prefecture. On the other hand, flood risk was relatively low in Ibaraki and Chiba prefecture. We found that these regional differences of flood risk can be attributed to spatial distribution of entire property value and ratio of damaged housing units in each prefecture.We also attempted to evaluate influence of climate change on potential flood risk by considering variation of precipitation amount and precipitation intensity in the Tokyo metropolitan area. Results shows that we can evaluate potential impact of precipitation change on flood risk with high accuracy by using our methodology. Acknowledgments This study is conducted as part of the research subject "Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Water Hazard Assessed Using Regional Climate Scenarios in the Tokyo Region' (National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention; PI: Koji Dairaku) of Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation (RECCA) and was supported by the SOUSEI Program, funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Government of Japan

Hirano, J.; Dairaku, K.

2013-12-01

353

Flood-inundation maps for Peachtree Creek from the Norfolk Southern Railway bridge to the Moores Mill Road NW bridge, Atlanta, Georgia  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 5.5-mile reach of the Peachtree Creek from the Norfolk Southern Railway bridge to the Moores Mill Road NW bridge, were developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the City of Atlanta, Georgia. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/, depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage at Peachtree Creek at Atlanta, Georgia (02336300) and the USGS streamgage at Chattahoochee River at Georgia 280, near Atlanta, Georgia (02336490). Current water level (stage) at these USGS streamgages may be obtained at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ and can be used in conjunction with these maps to estimate near real-time areas of inundation. The National Weather Service (NWS) is incorporating results from this study into the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) flood warning system (http:/water.weather.gov/ahps/). The NWS forecasts flood hydrographs at many places that commonly are collocated at USGS streamgages. The forecasted peak-stage information for the USGS streamgage at Peachtree Creek, which is available through the AHPS Web site, may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. A one-dimensional step-backwater model was developed using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers HEC–RAS software for a 6.5-mile reach of Peachtree Creek and was used to compute flood profiles for a 5.5-mile reach of the creek. The model was calibrated using the most current stage-discharge relations at the Peachtree Creek at Atlanta, Georgia, streamgage (02336300), and the Chattahoochee River at Georgia 280, near Atlanta, Georgia, streamgage (02336490) as well as high water marks collected during the 2010 annual peak flow event. The hydraulic model was then used to determine 50 water-surface profiles. The profiles are for 10 flood stages at the Peachtree Creek streamgage at 1-foot intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from just above bankfull stage (15.0 feet) to approximately the highest recorded water level at the streamgage (24.0 feet). At each stage on Peachtree Creek, five stages at the Chattahoochee River streamgage, from 26.4 feet to 38.4 feet in 3-foot intervals, were used to determine backwater effects. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model—derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data having a 0.3-foot vertical and 16.4-foot horizontal resolution—to delineate the area flooded for each 1-foot increment of stream stage. The availability of these maps, when combined with real-time information regarding current stage from USGS streamgages and forecasted stream stages from the NWS, provide emergency management personnel and residents with critical information during flood response activities, such as evacuations and road closures as well as for postflood-recovery efforts.

Musser, Jonathan W.

2012-01-01

354

Alabama district flood plan  

USGS Publications Warehouse

The purpose of this flood plan is to outline and record advance planning for flood emergencies, so that all personnel will know the general plan and have a ready-reference for necessary information. This will ensure that during any flood event, regardless of the extent or magnitude, the resources of the District can be mobilized into a maximum data collection operation with a mimimum of effort.

Hedgecock, T. Scott; Pearman, J. Leroy; Stricklin, Victor E.

2002-01-01

355

Flood frequency in Alaska  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Records of peak discharge at 183 sites were used to study flood frequency in Alaska. The vast size of Alaska, its great ranges of physiography, and the lack of data for much of the State precluded a comprehensive analysis of all flood determinants. Peak stream discharges, where gaging-station records were available, were analyzed for 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, 25-year, and 50-year average-recurrence intervals. A regional analysis of the flood characteristics by multiple-regression methods gave a set of equations that can be used to estimate floods of selected recurrence intervals up to 50 years for any site on any stream in Alaska. The equations relate floods to drainage-basin characteristics. The study indicates that in Alaska the 50-year flood can be estimated from 10-year gaging- station records with a standard error of 22 percent whereas the 50-year flood can be estimated from the regression equation with a standard error of 53 percent. Also, maximum known floods at more than 500 gaging stations and miscellaneous sites in Alaska were related to drainage-area size. An envelope curve of 500 cubic feet per second per square mile covered all but 2 floods in the State.

Childers, J.M.

1970-01-01

356

Forecast-skill-based simulation of streamflow forecasts  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Streamflow forecasts are updated periodically in real time, thereby facilitating forecast evolution. This study proposes a forecast-skill-based model of forecast evolution that is able to simulate dynamically updated streamflow forecasts. The proposed model applies stochastic models that deal with streamflow variability to generate streamflow scenarios, which represent cases without forecast skill of future streamflow. The model then employs a coefficient of prediction to determine forecast skill and to quantify the streamflow variability ratio explained by the forecast. By updating the coefficients of prediction periodically, the model efficiently captures the evolution of streamflow forecast. Simulated forecast uncertainty increases with increasing lead time; and simulated uncertainty during a specific future period decreases over time. We combine the statistical model with an optimization model and design a hypothetical case study of reservoir operation. The results indicate the significance of forecast skill in forecast-based reservoir operation. Shortage index reduces as forecast skill increases and ensemble forecast outperforms deterministic forecast at a similar forecast skill level. Moreover, an effective forecast horizon exists beyond which more forecast information does not contribute to reservoir operation and higher forecast skill results in longer effective forecast horizon. The results illustrate that the statistical model is efficient in simulating forecast evolution and facilitates analysis of forecast-based decision making.

Zhao, Tongtiegang; Zhao, Jianshi

2014-09-01

357

Artificial neural networks modeling for forecasting the maximum daily total precipitation at Athens, Greece  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Extreme daily precipitation events are involved in significant environmental damages, even in life loss, because of causing adverse impacts, such as flash floods, in urban and sometimes in rural areas. Thus, long-term forecast of such events is of great importance for the preparation of local authorities in order to confront and mitigate the adverse consequences. The objective of this study is to estimate the possibility of forecasting the maximum daily precipitation for the next coming year. For this reason, appropriate prognostic models, such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) were developed and applied. The data used for the analysis concern annual maximum daily precipitation totals, which have been recorded at the National Observatory of Athens (NOA), during the long term period 1891-2009. To evaluate the potential of daily extreme precipitation forecast by the applied ANNs, a different period for validation was considered than the one used for the ANNs training. Thus, the datasets of the period 1891-1980 were used as training datasets, while the datasets of the period 1981-2009 as validation datasets. Appropriate statistical indices, such as the coefficient of determination (R2), the index of agreement (IA), the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and the Mean Bias Error (MBE), were applied to test the reliability of the models. The findings of the analysis showed that, a quite satisfactory relationship (R2 = 0.482, IA = 0.817, RMSE = 16.4 mm and MBE = + 5.2 mm) appears between the forecasted and the respective observed maximum daily precipitation totals one year ahead. The developed ANN seems to overestimate the maximum daily precipitation totals appeared in 1988 while underestimate the maximum in 1999, which could be attributed to the relatively low frequency of occurrence of these extreme events within GAA having impact on the optimum training of ANN.

Nastos, P. T.; Paliatsos, A. G.; Koukouletsos, K. V.; Larissi, I. K.; Moustris, K. P.

2014-07-01

358

Hindcast experiments of ensemble streamflow forecasting for the Paraopeba river (Brazil)  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Streamflow forecasts are routinely produced and used in Brazil to predict inflow to major hydropower reservoirs . In this field of application quantitative precipitation forecasts are becoming increasingly used to extend the range and increase the skill of streamflow forecasts. Forecasting systems designed to provide flood alert, on the other side, are relatively rare in Brazil, and are often based on simplified river routing models. However, a number of recent floods with significant loss of lives and economical impact is now motivating the creation of a new governmental institution dedicated to natural disaster and flood forecasting. This will further motivate the incorporation of numerical weather predictions (NWP) as input data to hydrological flood forecasting models, with the aim of increasing forecast lead time. In this context ensemble meteorological forecasts will be increasingly useful, since it is expected that ensembles can give some idea of the confidence level of the forecasts, and that extremes can be better captured by a high number of NWP runs with different initial conditions, or with different meteorological models. Silva Dias and Moreira (2006) organized a grand ensemble including several different models and model members for South America. We used forecasts of individual models of this grand ensemble to run a series of streamflow hindcast experiments (in forecast mode), using the MGB-IPH hydrological model. These tests were conducted in the Paraopeba river basin, which is a tributary of the São Francisco river, located in Minas Gerais State, in a Tropical region in the range from 21 S to 19 S. Results of 72 hour streamflow forecasts were compared to hourly observed discharge at Porto Mesquita gauging station, were the drainage area is 10280 square kilometers, during the Austral Summer of 2011. Results were assessed by visual inspection of hydrographs and by the analysis of a number of summary statistics. These preliminary results suggest that the ensemble spread generally includes the observed streamflow, even during floods. Results also suggest that a very simple combination of the individual forecasts obtained by averaging the forecasting hydrographs is a better predictor of future river discharge than any other individual run. In future work this analysis will be extended to a wider area, with other river gauging stations, and to a time range of several years.

Collischonn, W.; Meller, A.; Dias, P. L. S.; Moreira, D. S.

2012-04-01

359

Results from the Second Forum on the Future Role of the Human in the Forecast Process. Part II: Cognitive Psychological Aspects of Expert Weather Forecasters  

E-print Network

1 Results from the Second Forum on the Future Role of the Human in the Forecast Process. Part II: Cognitive Psychological Aspects of Expert Weather Forecasters NEIL A. STUART* NOAA/National Weather Service;2 ABSTRACT The Second Forum on the Future Role of the Human in the Forecast Process occurred on 2­3 August

Schultz, David

360

Flood risk assessment in France: comparison of extreme flood estimation methods (EXTRAFLO project, action 7)  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In flood risk assessment the methods can be divided in two families: deterministic methods and probabilistic methods. In the French hydrologic community the probabilistic methods are historically preferred to the deterministic ones. Presently a French research project named EXTRAFLO (RiskNat Program of the French National Research Agency, https://extraflo.cemagref.fr) deals with the design values for extreme rainfall and floods. The object of this project is to carry out a comparison of the main methods used in France for estimating extreme values of rainfall and floods, to obtain a better grasp of their respective fields of application. In this framework we present the results of Action 7 of EXTRAFLO project. Focusing on five French watersheds, we compare the main extreme flood estimation methods used in French background: (i) standard flood frequency analysis (Gumbel and GEV distribution), (ii) regional flood frequency analysis (regional Gumbel and GEV distribution), (iii) flood frequency analysis improved by historical information (Naulet et al., 2005), (iv) simplify probabilistic method based on rainfall information (i.e. Gradex method (CFGB, 1994), Agregee method (Margoum, 1992) and Speed method (Cayla, 1995)), (v) flood frequency analysis by continuous simulation approach and based on rainfall information (i.e. Schadex method (Paquet et al., 2006, Garavaglia et al. 2010), Shyreg method (Lavabre et al., 2003)) and (vi) multifractal approach. The main result of this comparative study is that probabilistic methods based on additional information (i.e. regional, historical and rainfall information) provide better estimations than the standard flood frequency analysis. Another interesting result is that, the differences between the various extreme flood quantile estimations of compared methods increase with return period, staying relatively moderate up to 100-years return levels. Results and discussions are here illustrated throughout with the example of the Ardeche watershed (South of France).

Garavaglia, F.; Paquet, E.; Lang, M.; Renard, B.; Arnaud, P.; Aubert, Y.; Carre, J.-C.; Bernardara, P.

2012-04-01

361

Seasonal Water Resources Management and Probabilistic Operations Forecast in the San Juan Basin  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Projections of reservoir conditions and operations of major water resources systems in the Colorado River Basin are generated each month for a 2-year period by the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) using the 24-Month Study (24MS) model. This is a monthly timestep deterministic model that incorporates a single streamflow forecast trace produced by the National Weather Service (NWS) Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC), resulting in the most probable reservoir operations projection. Using an Extended Streamflow Prediction (ESP) method and a physically based hydrologic model, the CBRFC produces an ensemble of streamflow forecasts by sampling historical weather sequences conditioned on 3-7 month seasonal climate forecasts starting from the model's current initial conditions. Using the 24MS model with the most probable forecast from the ESP ensemble, Reclamation manually inputs projected operations, adjusting the operations to meet system objectives. The result is a single most probable operations forecast that does not quantify the uncertainty associated with the ensemble flow projections. In addition, the variability in the ESP method is limited by the flows that result from the historical meteorological record. This research addresses these shortcomings by using an alternative method of generating an ensemble of forecasts with greater variability and applies these to a rulebased operations model to produce a probabilistic projection of operations. To accomplish this, we combined an enhanced ESP with a probabilistic version of the 24MS model known as the Mid-Term Operations Model (MTOM). The MTOM has captured the operating policies in a set of rules that are designed to meet system objectives for a wide range of hydrologic conditions, thus can be used to simulate operations for many hydrologic scenarios. For each year, stochastic weather sequences are generated conditioned on probabilistic seasonal climate forecasts which are coupled with the SAC-SMA model within the NWS Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS) to produce an ensemble streamflow forecast. The ensemble traces are used to drive the MTOM with the initial conditions of the water resources system and the operating rules, to provide ensembles of water resources management and operation metrics. We applied this integrated approach to forecasting in the San Juan River Basin (SJRB) using a portion of the Colorado River MTOM. The management objectives in the basin include water supply for irrigation, tribal water rights, environmental flows, and flood control. The spring streamflow ensembles were issued at four different lead times on the first of each month from January - April, and are incorporated into the MTOM for the period 2002-2010. Ensembles of operational performance metrics for the SJRB such as Navajo Reservoir releases, end of water year storage, environmental flows and water supply for irrigation were computed and their skills evaluated against variables obtained in a baseline simulation using historical streamflow. Preliminary results indicate that thus obtained probabilistic forecasts may produce increased skill especially at long lead time (e.g., on Jan and Feb 1st). The probabilistic information for water management variables provide risks of system vulnerabilities and thus enables risk-based efficient planning and operations.

Daugherty, L.; Zagona, E. A.; Rajagopalan, B.; Grantz, K.; Miller, W. P.; Werner, K.

2013-12-01

362

New Operational Tsunami Forecast: Accuracy Assessment of Tsunami Amplitude Predictions  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

NOAA has accepted a new tsunami forecast method in operational use to predict tsunami flooding, amplitudes and other tsunami parameters in real-time, while tsunami is still propagating. The method (called Short-term Inundation Forecast for Tsunamis -- SIFT) uses DART real-time data to improve the accuracy of coastal tsunami forecast, when compared with just the seismic data-based assessment. The main goal of the forecast system is to forecast flooding due to tsunami wave at specific coastal locations. Other tsunami parameters are also computed to estimate overall hazard at a given location for a specific tsunami event. Knowing the accuracy of the forecast is extremely important for making right decisions throughout tsunami warnings procedures. During operational testing of the system a comprehensive analysis of accuracy of the system has been performed. The presentation will present the accuracy analysis of the tsunami forecast and implications for future development and improvements of tsunami forecasting.The rapid development of computing technology allowed us to look into the tsunami impact caused by above hypotheses using high-resolution models with large coverage of Pacific Northwest. With the slab model of MaCrory et al. (2012) (as part of the USGS slab 1.0 model) for the Cascadia earthquake, we tested the above hypotheses to assess the tsunami hazards along the entire U.S. West Coast. The modeled results indicate these hypothetical scenarios may cause runup heights very similar to those observed along Japan's coastline during the 2011 Japan tsunami,. Comparing to a long rupture, the Tohoku-type rupture may cause more serious impact at the adjacent coastline, independent of where it would occur in the Cascadia subduction zone. These findings imply that the Cascadia tsunami hazard may be greater than originally thought.

Titov, V.

2013-12-01

363

Operational Ensemble River Forecasting in the United States and Australia: Practices and Challenges  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Operational river forecasts have been long produced to support water resources management in the United States and Australia. These forecasts cover a range of timescales from flash flooding (e.g. minutes to hours ahead) to seasonal (e.g. months ahead) and are generated by a range of statistical (e.g. regression-based) and dynamical (e.g. rainfall-runoff) model based techniques. Forecast uncertainty is commonly estimated operationally by using an ensemble of future precipitation scenarios and/or a measure of historical model error. Retrospective ensemble forecasting and the use of reforecasts for bias-adjustment and post-processing have become popular research topics and a few successful demonstration projects exist in both countries. Practical methods of post-processing, such as ensemble dressing, have been used to improve the probabilistic reliability of forecasts. The translation of predictions of probability distributions of streamflow into temporally and spatially consistent ensemble hydrographs remains an area for further development. However, probabilistic forecast communication and use remains a stumbling block for many. Furthermore, ensemble generation and post-processing typically require completely automated systems, making it difficult for humans to contribute their expertise to the forecasting process. This talk draws on ten years of experience as an operational forecaster with the US Department of Agriculture and as a developer of short-term flood forecasting systems to support the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

Pagano, T. C.

2012-04-01

364

2011 Spring Flood  

USGS Multimedia Gallery

Left to Right: Bill Stiles, Dan Kroes USGS Hydrologist Dan Kroes shows Congressional staffers the difference in turbidity levels of the water in Bayou Sorrel. As the record flood waters of the 2011 flood inundate the Atchafalaya Basin, they begin to flush out the stagnant swamp water, or

365

Discover Floods Educators Guide  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Now available as a Download! This valuable resource helps educators teach students about both the risks and benefits of flooding through a series of engaging, hands-on activities. Acknowledging the different roles that floods play in both natural and urban communities, the book helps young people gain a global understanding of this common--and…

Project WET Foundation, 2009

2009-01-01

366

Improving Radar QPE's in Complex Terrain for Improved Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) is extremely challenging in regions of complex terrain due to a combination of issues related to sampling. In particular, radar beams are often blocked or scan above the liquid precipitation zone while rain gauge density is often too low to properly characterize the spatial distribution of precipitation. Due to poor radar coverage, rain gauge networks are used by the National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers as the principal source for QPE across the western U.S. The California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC) uses point rainfall measurements and historical rainfall runoff relationships to derive river stage forecasts. The point measurements are interpolated to a 4 km grid using Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) data to develop a gridded 6-hour QPE product (hereafter referred to as RFC QPE). Local forecast offices can utilize the Multi-sensor Precipitation Estimator (MPE) software to improve local QPE’s and thus local flash flood monitoring and prediction. MPE uses radar and rain gauge data to develop a combined QPE product at 1-hour intervals. The rain gauge information is used to bias correct the radar precipitation estimates so that, in situations where the rain gauge density and radar coverage are adequate, MPE can take advantage of the spatial coverage of the radar and the “ground truth” of the rain gauges to provide an accurate QPE. The MPE 1-hour QPE analysis should provide better spatial and temporal resolution for short duration hydrologic events as compared to 6-hour analyses. These hourly QPEs are then used to correct radar derived rain rates used by the Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction (FFMP) software in forecast offices for issuance of flash flood warnings. Although widely used by forecasters across the eastern U.S., MPE is not used extensively by the NWS in the west. Part of the reason for the lack of use of MPE across the west is that there has been little quantitative evaluation of MPE performance in this region compared to simply using a gage only analysis. In this study, an evaluation of MPE and RFC QPE is performed in a portion of the CNRFC (including the Russian and American River basins) using an independent set of rain gauge data from the Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT). Data from a precipitation event in January 2010 are used to establish the comparison methodology and for preliminary evaluation. For this multi-day event, it is shown that the RFC QPE shows generally better agreement with the HMT gauges compared to MPE in terms of storm total precipitation. However, the bias in RFC:MPE is shown to vary as a function of terrain and time. Moreover, for a subset of the HMT gauges in Sonoma county, the 1-hour MPE precipitation totals are found to be generally well correlated to the HMT gauge totals with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.6-0.9. For the Sonoma county gauges, the MPE product generally underestimates rainfall compared to HMT, probably as a consequence of low-level, orographically forced precipitation that was not well captured by the MPE radar analysis.

Cifelli, R.; Streubel, D. P.; Reynolds, D.

2010-12-01

367

Continental Portuguese Territory Flood Social Susceptibility Index  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The combination of human exposure, extreme weather events and lack of adaptation strategies to cope with flood related impacts can potentially increase losses not only on infrastructure but also on human lives. These impacts are usually difficult to quantify due to the lack of data and for this reason most of the studies developed at the national scale only include the main characteristics that define the societal or individual predisposition to be affected, resist, adapt or recover, when exposed to a flood. The main objective of this work was to develop a flood social susceptibility index for the continental Portuguese territory based on the most representative variables able to characterize different influencing factors. This index is part of the national vulnerability index developed in the scope of Flood Maps in Climate Change Scenarios (CIRAC) project, supported by the Portuguese Association of Insurers (APS). The main results showed that the proposed index correctly identified populations more socially susceptible to floods, mostly concentrated in rural inland areas with lower income and education levels, when compared with the coastal region between Viana do Castelo and Setúbal.

Grosso, N.; Dias, L.; Costa, H. P.; Santos, F. D.; Garrett, P.

2014-12-01

368

FOMC Consensus Forecasts  

E-print Network

In November 2007, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a change in the way it communicates its view of the economic outlook: It increased the frequency of its forecasts from two to four times per year, and it increased the length of the forecasting horizon from two to three years. The FOMC does not release the individual members ’ forecasts or standard measures of consensus such as the mean or median. Rather, it continues to release the forecast information as a range of forecasts, both the full range between the high and the low and a central tendency that omits the extreme values. This paper uses individual forecaster data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) to mimic the FOMC’s method for creating their central tendency. The authors show that the midpoint of the central tendency of the SPF is a reliable measure of the consensus, suggesting that the FOMC reporting method is also a reliable measure of consensus. For the dates when both are available, the authors also compare the relative forecast accuracy of the FOMC and SPF consensus forecasts for output growth and inflation. Overall, the differences in forecast accuracy are too small to be statistically significant. (JEL C42, E17, E37, E52)

William T. Gavin; Geetanjali P

369

Flood characteristics of the Buffalo River at Tyler Bend, Arkansas  

USGS Publications Warehouse

The Buffalo River is located in the Ozark Mountains in north-central Arkansas. Tyler Bend is on the Buffalo River about 1.5 miles upstream from U.S. Highway 65. The National Park Service is developing several recreational park sites along this scenic river. The magnitude, frequency, duration and velocities of floods are primary factors needed for establishing guidelines for developing facilities and managing park sites. The Park Service plans to develop park facilities at Tyler Bend and needs flood information at this site. This report provides information on the 100-, 75-, 50-, 30-, 20-, 10-, and 5-year floods on the Buffalo River at Tyler Bend. It was prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the National Park Service and is based on data collected during the December 1982 flood, gaging station data for the Buffalo River near St. Joe, Arkansas and a Statewide flood-frequency report. (Lantz-PTT)

Neely, Braxtel L.

1987-01-01

370

One step forward, two steps back: Flood management policy in the United States  

Microsoft Academic Search

After reviewing two core flood hazard mitigation policies within the United States – the 100-year standard and the National Flood Insurance Program – this discussion focuses upon policy recommendations for improving flood hazard mitigation in the US. In the end, it is found that flood hazard mitigation policy within the US, while full of good intentions, has unintentionally produced many hurdles. These hurdles are

Michael S. Carolan

2007-01-01

371