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1

Application of data-based mechanistic modelling for flood forecasting at multiple locations in the Eden catchment in the National Flood Forecasting System (England and Wales)  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The Delft Flood Early Warning System provides a versatile framework for real-time flood forecasting. The UK Environment Agency has adopted the Delft framework to deliver its National Flood Forecasting System. The Delft system incorporates new flood forecasting models very easily using an "open shell" framework. This paper describes how we added the data-based mechanistic modelling approach to the model inventory and presents a case study for the Eden catchment (Cumbria, UK).

Leedal, D.; Weerts, A. H.; Smith, P. J.; Beven, K. J.

2013-01-01

2

Real-time flood forecasting  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Researchers at the Hydroinformatic Research and Development Team (HIRDT) of the National Taiwan University undertook a project to create a real time flood forecasting model, with an aim to predict the current in the Tamsui River Basin. The model was designed based on deterministic approach with mathematic modeling of complex phenomenon, and specific parameter values operated to produce a discrete result. The project also devised a rainfall-stage model that relates the rate of rainfall upland directly to the change of the state of river, and is further related to another typhoon-rainfall model. The geographic information system (GIS) data, based on precise contour model of the terrain, estimate the regions that were perilous to flooding. The HIRDT, in response to the project's progress, also devoted their application of a deterministic model to unsteady flow of thermodynamics to help predict river authorities issue timely warnings and take other emergency measures.

Lai, C.; Tsay, T. -K.; Chien, C. -H.; Wu, I. -L.

2009-01-01

3

Forecasters priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have in recent years been increasingly used for the operational forecasting of floods by hydrometeorological agencies. The most obvious advantages of HEPS are that more of the uncertainty in the modelling system can be assessed; and that ensemble prediction systems generally have better skill than deterministic systems both in the terms of the mean forecast performance and the potential forecasting of extreme events. Research efforts have so far mostly been devoted to the improvement of the technical aspects of the model systems themselves. However, in this paper we argue that there are other areas of HEPS that need urgent attention; such as assessment of the full uncertainty in the forecast chain, multimodel approaches, robust forecast skill assessment and further collaboration and knowledge exchange between operational forecasters and the model development community. In light of limited resources we suggest a simple model to classify the identified priorities in terms of their cost and complexity to decide in which order to tackle them This model is then used to create an action plan of short-, medium- and long-term research priorities with the ultimate goal of an optimal improvement in operational HEPS.

Wetterhall, F.; Pappenberger, F.; Cloke, H. L.; Thielen-del Pozo, J.; Balabanova, S.; Da?helka, J.; Vogelbacher, A.; Salamon, P.; Carrasco, I.; Cabrera-Tordera, A. J.; Corzo-Toscano, M.; Garcia-Padilla, M.; Garcia-Sanchez, R. J.; Ardilouze, C.; Jurela, S.; Terek, B.; Csik, A.; Casey, J.; Stank?navi?ius, G.; Ceres, V.; Sprokkereef, E.; Stam, J.; Anghel, E.; Vladikovic, D.; Alionte Eklund, C.; Hjerdt, N.; Djerv, H.; Holmberg, F.; Nilsson, J.; Nyström, K.; Sušnik, M.; Hazlinger, M.; Holubecka, M.

2013-02-01

4

Evaluation of Flood Forecast and Warning in Elbe river basin - Impact of Forecaster's Strategy  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI) is responsible for flood forecasting and warning in the Czech Republic. To meet that issue CHMI operates hydrological forecasting systems and publish flow forecast in selected profiles. Flood forecast and warning is an output of system that links observation (flow and atmosphere), data processing, weather forecast (especially NWP's QPF), hydrological modeling and modeled outputs evaluation and interpretation by forecaster. Forecast users are interested in final output without separating uncertainties of separate steps of described process. Therefore an evaluation of final operational forecasts was done for profiles within Elbe river basin produced by AquaLog forecasting system during period 2002 to 2008. Effects of uncertainties of observation, data processing and especially meteorological forecasts were not accounted separately. Forecast of flood levels exceedance (peak over the threshold) during forecasting period was the main criterion as flow increase forecast is of the highest importance. Other evaluation criteria included peak flow and volume difference. In addition Nash-Sutcliffe was computed separately for each time step (1 to 48 h) of forecasting period to identify its change with the lead time. Textual flood warnings are issued for administrative regions to initiate flood protection actions in danger of flood. Flood warning hit rate was evaluated at regions level and national level. Evaluation found significant differences of model forecast skill between forecasting profiles, particularly less skill was evaluated at small headwater basins due to domination of QPF uncertainty in these basins. The average hit rate was 0.34 (miss rate = 0.33, false alarm rate = 0.32). However its explored spatial difference is likely to be influenced also by different fit of parameters sets (due to different basin characteristics) and importantly by different impact of human factor. Results suggest that the practice of interactive model operation, experience and forecasting strategy differs between responsible forecasting offices. Warning is based on model outputs interpretation by hydrologists-forecaster. Warning hit rate reached 0.60 for threshold set to lowest flood stage of which 0.11 was underestimation of flood degree (miss 0.22, false alarm 0.28). Critical success index of model forecast was 0.34, while the same criteria for warning reached 0.55. We assume that the increase accounts not only to change of scale from single forecasting point to region for warning, but partly also to forecaster's added value. There is no official warning strategy preferred in the Czech Republic (f.e. tolerance towards higher false alarm rate). Therefore forecaster decision and personal strategy is of great importance. Results show quite successful warning for 1st flood level exceedance, over-warning for 2nd flood level, but under-warning for 3rd (highest) flood level. That suggests general forecaster's preference of medium level warning (2nd flood level is legally determined to be the start of the flood and flood protection activities). In conclusion human forecaster's experience and analysis skill increases flood warning performance notably. However society preference should be specifically addressed in the warning strategy definition to support forecaster's decision making.

Danhelka, Jan; Vlasak, Tomas

2010-05-01

5

An internet-based flood forecasting system  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Modern flood forecasting systems have developed from simple forecasting engines to sophisticated but user-friendly real-time decision support systems for region-wide forecasting. Such flood forecasting systems must provide reliable, accurate and timely forecasts for a range of catchments; from small rapidly responding urban areas, to large, more slowly responding fluvial systems, often within the same region. Forecasting of fast response catchments requires rainfall-runoff modelling combined with real-time precipitation data and quantitative precipitation forecasts. In such cases the potential benefits of using weather radar, particularly in terms of increasing forecast lead-time can be substantial. Forecasting of large fluvial systems often requires hydraulic modelling where the use of real-time water level and discharge data for updating is crucial. In this paper a comprehensive regional flood forecasting system for the Anglian Region of the Environment Agency is presented. The system, based on state-of-the-art database, GIS and Internet technology, provides a user-friendly real-time operational tool that allows the consistent application of different data, and modelling approaches. This paper will show how the system was designed in co-operation with the Anglian Region of Environment Agency, who are responsible for flood warning and management to meet their operational requirements while providing a generic system.

Butts, M. B.; Klinting, A.; van Kalken, T.; Cadman, D.; Price, D.; Hoest-Madsen, J.

2003-04-01

6

Flood Forecasting in River System Using ANFIS  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The aim of the present study is to investigate applicability of artificial intelligence techniques such as ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) in forecasting flood flow in a river system. The proposed technique combines the learning ability of neural network with the transparent linguistic representation of fuzzy system. The technique is applied to forecast discharge at a downstream station using flow information at various upstream stations. A total of three years data has been selected for the implementation of this model. ANFIS models with various input structures and membership functions are constructed, trained and tested to evaluate efficiency of the models. Statistical indices such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Correlation Coefficient (CORR) and Coefficient of Efficiency (CE) are used to evaluate performance of the ANFIS models in forecasting river flood. The values of the indices show that ANFIS model can accurately and reliably be used to forecast flood in a river system.

Ullah, Nazrin; Choudhury, P.

2010-10-01

7

Flood Forecasting in River System Using ANFIS  

SciTech Connect

The aim of the present study is to investigate applicability of artificial intelligence techniques such as ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) in forecasting flood flow in a river system. The proposed technique combines the learning ability of neural network with the transparent linguistic representation of fuzzy system. The technique is applied to forecast discharge at a downstream station using flow information at various upstream stations. A total of three years data has been selected for the implementation of this model. ANFIS models with various input structures and membership functions are constructed, trained and tested to evaluate efficiency of the models. Statistical indices such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Correlation Coefficient (CORR) and Coefficient of Efficiency (CE) are used to evaluate performance of the ANFIS models in forecasting river flood. The values of the indices show that ANFIS model can accurately and reliably be used to forecast flood in a river system.

Ullah, Nazrin; Choudhury, P. [Dept. of Civil Eng., NIT, Silchar (India)

2010-10-26

8

Development and application of an atmospheric-hydrologic-hydraulic flood forecasting model driven by TIGGE ensemble forecasts  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A coupled atmospheric-hydrologic-hydraulic ensemble flood forecasting model, driven by The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) data, has been developed for flood forecasting over the Huaihe River. The incorporation of numerical weather prediction (NWP) information into flood forecasting systems may increase forecast lead time from a few hours to a few days. A single NWP model forecast from a single forecast center, however, is insufficient as it involves considerable non-predictable uncertainties and leads to a high number of false alarms. The availability of global ensemble NWP systems through TIGGE offers a new opportunity for flood forecast. The Xinanjiang model used for hydrological rainfall-runoff modeling and the one-dimensional unsteady flow model applied to channel flood routing are coupled with ensemble weather predictions based on the TIGGE data from the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the UK Met Office (UKMO), and the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The developed ensemble flood forecasting model is applied to flood forecasting of the 2007 flood season as a test case. The test case is chosen over the upper reaches of the Huaihe River above Lutaizi station with flood diversion and retarding areas. The input flood discharge hydrograph from the main channel to the flood diversion area is estimated with the fixed split ratio of the main channel discharge. The flood flow inside the flood retarding area is calculated as a reservoir with the water balance method. The Muskingum method is used for flood routing in the flood diversion area. A probabilistic discharge and flood inundation forecast is provided as the end product to study the potential benefits of using the TIGGE ensemble forecasts. The results demonstrate satisfactory flood forecasting with clear signals of probability of floods up to a few days in advance, and show that TIGGE ensemble forecast data are a promising tool for forecasting of flood inundation, comparable with that driven by raingauge observations.

Bao, Hongjun; Zhao, Linna

2012-02-01

9

Medium range flood forecasts at global scale  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

While weather and climate forecast methods have advanced greatly over the last two decades, this capability has yet to be evidenced in mitigation of water-related natural hazards (primarily floods and droughts), especially in the developing world. Examples abound of extreme property damage and loss of life due to floods in the underdeveloped world. For instance, more than 4.5 million people were affected by the July 2000 flooding of the Mekong River and its tributaries in Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos and Thailand. The February- March 2000 floods in the Limpopo River of Mozambique caused extreme disruption to that country's fledgling economy. Mitigation of these events through advance warning has typically been modest at best. Despite the above noted improvement in weather and climate forecasts, there is at present no system for forecasting of floods globally, notwithstanding that the potential clearly exists. We describe a methodology that is eventually intended to generate global flood predictions routinely. It draws heavily from the experimental North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) and the companion Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) for development of nowcasts, and the University of Washington Experimental Hydrologic Prediction System to develop ensemble hydrologic forecasts based on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models which serve both as nowcasts (and hence reduce the need for in situ precipitation and other observations in parts of the world where surface networks are critically deficient) and provide forecasts for lead times as long as fifteen days. The heart of the hydrologic modeling system is the University of Washington/Princeton University Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrology model. In the prototype (tested using retrospective data), VIC is driven globally up to the time of forecast with daily ERA40 precipitation (rescaled on a monthly basis to a station-based global climatology), ERA40 wind, and ERA40 average surface air temperature (with temperature ranges adjusted to a station-based climatology). In the retrospective forecasting mode, VIC is driven by global NCEP ensemble 15-day reforecasts provided by Tom Hamill (NOAA/ERL), bias corrected with respect to the adjusted ERA40 data and further downscaled spatially using higher spatial resolution Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) 1dd daily precipitation. Downward solar and longwave radiation, surface relative humidity, and other model forcings are derived from relationships with the daily temperature range during both the retrospective (spinup) and forecast period. The initial system is implemented globally at one-half degree spatial resolution. We evaluate model performance retrospectively for predictions of major floods for the Oder River in 1997, the Mekong River in 2000 and the Limpopo River in 2000.

Voisin, N.; Wood, A. W.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Wood, E. F.

2006-12-01

10

Evaluation of Flood Forecast and Warning in Elbe river basin - Impact of Forecaster's Strategy  

Microsoft Academic Search

Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI) is responsible for flood forecasting and warning in the Czech Republic. To meet that issue CHMI operates hydrological forecasting systems and publish flow forecast in selected profiles. Flood forecast and warning is an output of system that links observation (flow and atmosphere), data processing, weather forecast (especially NWP's QPF), hydrological modeling and modeled outputs evaluation and

Jan Danhelka; Tomas Vlasak

2010-01-01

11

A data based mechanistic real-time flood forecasting module for NFFS FEWS  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The data based mechanistic (DBM) approach for identifying and estimating rainfall to level, and level to level models has been shown to perform well for flood forecasting in several studies. The DELFT-FEWS open shell operational flood forecasting system provides a framework linking hydrological/meteorological real-time data, real-time forecast models, and a human/computer interaction interface. This infrastructure is used by the UK National Flood Forecasting System (NFFS) and the European Flood Alert System (EFAS) among others. The open shell nature of the FEWS framework has been specifically designed to make it easy to add new forecasting models written as FEWS modules. This paper shows the development of the DBM forecast model as a FEWS module and presents results for the Eden catchment (Cumbria UK) as a case study.

Leedal, D.; Weerts, A. H.; Smith, P. J.; Beven, K. J.

2012-06-01

12

Operational flash flood forecasting platform based on grid technology  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flash flood events of south of France such as the 8th and 9th September 2002 in the Grand Delta territory caused important economic and human damages. Further to this catastrophic hydrological situation, a reform of flood warning services have been initiated (set in 2006). Thus, this political reform has transformed the 52 existing flood warning services (SAC) in 22 flood forecasting services (SPC), in assigning them territories more hydrological consistent and new effective hydrological forecasting mission. Furthermore, national central service (SCHAPI) has been created to ease this transformation and support local services in their new objectives. New functioning requirements have been identified: - SPC and SCHAPI carry the responsibility to clearly disseminate to public organisms, civil protection actors and population, crucial hydrologic information to better anticipate potential dramatic flood event, - a new effective hydrological forecasting mission to these flood forecasting services seems essential particularly for the flash floods phenomenon. Thus, models improvement and optimization was one of the most critical requirements. Initially dedicated to support forecaster in their monitoring mission, thanks to measuring stations and rainfall radar images analysis, hydrological models have to become more efficient in their capacity to anticipate hydrological situation. Understanding natural phenomenon occuring during flash floods mainly leads present hydrological research. Rather than trying to explain such complex processes, the presented research try to manage the well-known need of computational power and data storage capacities of these services. Since few years, Grid technology appears as a technological revolution in high performance computing (HPC) allowing large-scale resource sharing, computational power using and supporting collaboration across networks. Nowadays, EGEE (Enabling Grids for E-science in Europe) project represents the most important effort in term of grid technology development. This paper presents an operational flash flood forecasting platform which have been developed in the framework of CYCLOPS European project providing one of virtual organizations of EGEE project. This platform has been designed to enable multi-simulations processes to ease forecasting operations of several supervised watersheds on Grand Delta (SPC-GD) territory. Grid technology infrastructure, in providing multiple remote computing elements enables the processing of multiple rainfall scenarios, derived to the original meteorological forecasting transmitted by Meteo-France, and their respective hydrological simulations. First results show that from one forecasting scenario, this new presented approach can permit simulations of more than 200 different scenarios to support forecasters in their aforesaid mission and appears as an efficient hydrological decision-making tool. Although, this system seems operational, model validity has to be confirmed. So, further researches are necessary to improve models core to be more efficient in term of hydrological aspects. Finally, this platform could be an efficient tool for developing others modelling aspects as calibration or data assimilation in real time processing.

Thierion, V.; Ayral, P.-A.; Angelini, V.; Sauvagnargues-Lesage, S.; Nativi, S.; Payrastre, O.

2009-04-01

13

A data based mechanistic approach to nonlinear flood routing and adaptive flood level forecasting  

Microsoft Academic Search

Operational flood forecasting requires accurate forecasts with a suitable lead time, in order to be able to issue appropriate warnings and take appropriate emergency actions. Recent improvements in both flood plain characterization and computational capabilities have made the use of distributed flood inundation models more common. However, problems remain with the application of such models. There are still uncertainties associated

Renata J. Romanowicz; Peter C. Young; Keith J. Beven; Florian Pappenberger

2008-01-01

14

Application and improvement of BFS in Flood forecasting  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Application and improvement of BFS in Flood forecasting Since the existence of flood forecasting uncertainties have been widely accepted gradually recently, how to quantitatively describe these uncertainties and achieve probabilistic forecasting becomes a hot topic. To realize probabilistic flood forecasting, the hydrologic uncertainty processor (HUP) within Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) was employed to investigate the hydrologic forecasting uncertainties in the article, and then probabilistic flood forecasting was realized. As a determinate hydrological model, Xin'anjiang model which is widespreadly applied in humid region was used to yield initial discharge forecasting series, meanwhile, the posterior distribution of discharge could be solved with selected prior distribution and likelihood function based on Bayesian theory, then, the probabilistic flood forecasting results at any time during the duration of flood hydrograph could be obtained according to the posterior distribution of discharge. It needs to point out that the method can not only achieve a good precision but also provide rich uncertainty information such as average, variance, quantile of different confidence interval and so on. In research or practice, the mean value of posterior distribution of discharge is always adopted as the final forecasting result. Analyzing the statistical characteristic of the ultimate forecasting results, a law that the forecasting precision is higher when the discharge magnitude is large was discovered. To overcome the disadvantage that forecasting accuracy is lower in the case of small discharge magnitude, according to the magnitude of the forecasting results, an improvement method of which kernel is selected two kinds of likelihood functions for different magnitudes discharge series to deduce posterior distribution was proposed. As an example, finally, BFS was applied to the probabilistic flood forecasting for MiSai basin in south of China, It indicates that BFS can improve forecasting accuracy appropriately and the improvement method of BFS is effective. Furthermore, the improved BFS can achieve a better precision when the discharge magnitude is small.

Wang, J.; Liang, Z.; Hu, Y.

2012-04-01

15

Fuzzy forecast of flood disaster caused by solar proton flares.  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The flood disaster caused by solar proton flares is forecasted using the theory of fuzzy mathematics. The index system and standards of fuzzy evaluation, as well as the membership function are proposed. A practical software of computer data processing for forecasting flood disaster is given.

Han, Zhengzhong; Tang, Yuhua

1999-01-01

16

Role of Passive Microwave Remote Sensing in Improving Flood Forecasts  

Microsoft Academic Search

Accurate information concerning antecedent soil moisture conditions is a key source of hydrologic forecasting skill for regional-scale flooding events occurring over time scales of days to weeks. Remotely sensed surface soil moisture observations are a viable source of such information and can potentially improve flood peak timing and magnitude forecasting in such events. C- and X-band brightness temperature data from

Rajat Bindlish; Wade T. Crow; Thomas J. Jackson

2009-01-01

17

Application research for 4D technology in flood forecasting and evaluation  

Microsoft Academic Search

In order to monitor the region which disaster flood happened frequently in China, satisfy the great need of province governments for high accuracy monitoring and evaluated data for disaster and improve the efficiency for repelling disaster, under the Ninth Five-year National Key Technologies Programme, the method was researched for flood forecasting and evaluation using satellite and aerial remoted sensed image

Ziwei Li; Yutong Liu; Hongjie Cao

1998-01-01

18

The use of HBV model for flash flood forecasting  

Microsoft Academic Search

The standard conceptual HBV model was originally developed with daily data and is normally operated on daily time step. But many floods in Slovenia are usually flash floods as result of intense frontal precipitation combined with orographic enhancement. Peak discharges are maintained only for hours or even minutes. To use the HBV model for flash flood forecasting, the version of

M. Kobold; M. Brilly

2006-01-01

19

Quantitative flood forecasting using multisensor data and neural networks  

Microsoft Academic Search

Accurate quantitative forecasting of rainfall for basins with a short response time is essential to predict streamflow and flash floods. Previously, neural networks were used to develop a Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting model that highly improved forecasting skill at specific locations in Pennsylvania, using both Numerical Weather Prediction output and rainfall and radiosonde data. The objective of this study was to

Gwangseob Kim; Ana P Barros

2001-01-01

20

Operational flood forecasting system of Umbria Region "Functional Centre  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The hydrometeorological alert office (called "Decentrate Functional Centre" - CFD) of Umbria Region, in central Italy, is the office that provides technical tools able to support decisions when significant flood/landslide events occur, furnishing 24h support for the whole duration of the emergency period, according to the national directive DPCM 27 February 2004 concerning the "Operating concepts for functional management of national and regional alert system during flooding and landslide events for civil protection activities purposes" that designs, within the Italian Civil Defence Emergency Management System, a network of 21 regional Functional Centres coordinated by a central office at the National Civil Protection Department in Rome. Due to its "linking" role between Civil Protection "real time" activities and environmental/planning "deferred time" ones, the Centre is in charge to acquire and collect both real time and quasi-static data: quantitative data from monitoring networks (hydrometeorological stations, meteo radar, ...), meteorological forecasting models output, Earth Observation data, hydraulic and hydrological simulation models, cartographic and thematic GIS data (vectorial and raster type), planning studies related to flooding areas mapping, dam managing plans during flood events, non instrumental information from direct control of "territorial presidium". A detailed procedure for the management of critical events was planned, also in order to define the different role of various authorities and institutions involved. Tiber River catchment, of which Umbria region represents the main upper-medium portion, includes also regional trans-boundary issues very important to cope with, especially for what concerns large dam behavior and management during heavy rainfall. The alert system is referred to 6 different warning areas in which the territory has been divided into and based on a threshold system of three different increasing critical levels according to the expected ground effects: ordinary, moderate and high. Particularly, hydrometric and rainfall thresholds for both floods and landslides alarms were assessed. Based on these thresholds, at the Umbria Region Functional Centre an automatic phone-call and SMS alert system is operating. For a real time flood forecasting system, at the CFD several hydrological and hydraulic models were developed. Three rainfall-runoff hydrological models, using different quantitative meteorological forecasts, are available: the event based models X-Nash (based on the Nash theory) and Mike-Drift coupled with the hydraulic model Mike-11 (developed by the Danish Hydraulic Institute - DHI); and the physically-based continuous model Mobidic (MOdello di Bilancio Idrologico DIstribuito e Continuo - Distributed and Continuous Model for the Hydrological Balance, developed by the University of Florence in cooperation with the Functional Centre of Tuscany Region). Other two hydrological models, using observed data of the real time hydrometeorological network, were implemented: the first one is the rainfall-runoff hydrological model Hec-Hms coupled with the hydraulic model Hec-Ras (United States Army Corps of Engineers - USACE). Moreover, Hec-Hms, is coupled also with a continuous soil moisture model for a more precise evaluation of the antecedent moisture condition of the basin, which is a key factor for a correct runoff volume evaluation. The second one is the routing hydrological model Stafom (STage FOrecasting Model, developed by the Italian Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection of the National Research Council - IRPI-CNR). This model is an adaptive model for on-line stage forecasting for river branches where significant lateral inflow contributions occur and, up to now, it is implemented for the main Tiber River branch and it allows a forecasting lead time up to 10 hours for the downstream river section. Recently, during the period between December the 4th and the 16th 2008, Umbria region territory was interested

Berni, N.; Pandolfo, C.; Stelluti, M.; Ponziani, F.; Viterbo, A.

2009-04-01

21

The National Collegiate Forecasting Contest  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This undergraduate meteorology tutorial from Texas A&M University explains the basic rules of the National Collegiate Weather Forecasting Contest, the procedure for entering a forecast, and a technique for converting from Greenwich Time to local time.

Nielsen-Gammon, John

1996-01-01

22

Seasonal Flood Forecasts and Dynamic Flood Risk Management  

Microsoft Academic Search

Recent developments in predicting seasonal flood peaks\\/volumes conditioned on ocean, atmospheric and land surface conditions offer the scope for dynamic flood risk management. We address a deficiency of the traditional assumption that flood series are stationary, independent and identically distributed (iid). In this study, we evaluate a semi-parametric methodology based on local likelihood estimation for estimating the flood quantiles based

S. Arumugam; U. Lall

2004-01-01

23

Climate Forecasts in Flood Planning: Promise and Ambiguity  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Recent technical and scientific advances have increased the potential use of long term, seasonal climate forecasts for improving water resource management. This paper examines the role that forecasts, in particular those based on the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, can play in flood planning in the Pacific Northwest. While strong evidence exists of an association between ENSO signals and flooding in the region, this association is open to more than one interpretation depending on: (a) the metric used to test the strength of the association; (b) the definition of critical flood events; (c) site specific features of watersheds; and (d) the decision environment of flood management institutions. A better understanding and appreciation of such ambiguities, both social and statistical, will help facilitate the use of climate forecast information for flood planning and response.

Wernstedt, Kris; Hersh, Robert

2002-12-01

24

A Web-based flood forecasting system for Shuangpai region  

Microsoft Academic Search

Traditional flood forecasting and operation of reservoirs in China are based on manual calculations by hydrologists or through standalone computer programs. The main drawbacks of these methods are shortage of prediction time due to time-consuming nature, individual knowledge, lack of communication, absence of experts, etc. A Web-based flood forecasting system (WFFS), which includes five main modules: real-time rainfall data conversion,

Xiang-yang Li; K. W. Chau; Chun-tian Cheng; Y. S. Li

2006-01-01

25

Weather Forecasting: National Weather Service's Operations Prototype Needs More Rigorous Planning.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

Using advanced systems and trained specialists located in 122 weather forecast offices throughout the country, the National Weather Service (NWS) provides storm and flood warnings and weather forecasts to protect life and property and to enhance the natio...

2007-01-01

26

Forecasting Extreme Flooding in South Asia (Invited)  

Microsoft Academic Search

In most years there is extensive flooding across India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. On average, 40 million people are displaced by floods in India and half that many again in Bangladesh. Occasionally, even more extensive and severe flooding occurs across South Asia. In 2007 and 2008 the Brahmaputra flooded three times causing severe disruption of commerce, agriculture and life in general.

P. J. Webster

2010-01-01

27

The policy and science supporting flash flood forecasting in Scotland  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In 2012, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) published its Flood Warning Strategy. The strategy aims to ensure that emerging science is at the heart of supporting its strategic aim of reducing the impact of river flooding through the provision of reliable and timely flood warnings and allowing Scotland's flood warning authority to develop forecasting approaches in areas not previously considered. One specific area of agreed commitment is in the development of methods for forecasting in rapid response or flashy catchments. Previous policies have stated that flood warning provision would not be possible without adequate hydrological response time (greater than three hours). The particular challenge with meeting this new aim is on the reliance of increasingly uncertain flooding predictions at the shorter timescale against a more cautious and traditional approach to flood warning which relies on hydrological observations and real time verification of forecasts. This therefore places increasing demands on developing hydrometeorological forecasting capabilities. This paper will present on some scientific developments supporting the latest policy. In particular on Grid-2-Grid, a distributed hydrological model, which has been in operation across Scotland for over a year (Cranston, et al., 2012) and on a specific assessment of its capabilities using high resolution and ensemble rainfall forecasts. The paper will focus on Comrie, a community in Scotland that has been devastated twice during 2012 by flash flooding and considers the various challenges in meeting this strategic aim. References Cranston, M., Maxey, R., Tavendale, A., Buchanan, P., Motion, A., Moore, R. M., Cole, S., Robson, A. and Minett, A. (2012) Countrywide flood forecasting in Scotland: challenges for hydrometeorological uncertainty and prediction. Weather Radar and Hydrology (Proceedings of a symposium held in Exeter, UK, April 2011), IAHS Publ. 351, 2012)

Cranston, Michael; Maxey, Richard; Speight, Linda; Tavendale, Amy; Cole, Steven; Robson, Alice; Moore, Robert

2013-04-01

28

Evaluation of NWP Precipitation Forecasts for Global Flood Warning  

Microsoft Academic Search

Precipitation forecasts from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models can potentially improve our ability for global flood and landslide warning. In this study, the skills and errors of three NWP precipitation forecast products were analyzed. These forecast products include GEOS5, GDAS and ECMWF, with lead time ranging from 12 hours to 5 days. They were evaluated against the satellite-based, gauge-corrected precipitation

Y. Tian; R. F. Adler; C. D. Peters-Lidard

2008-01-01

29

Public perception of flood risks, flood forecasting and mitigation  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A multidisciplinary and integrated approach to the flood mitigation decision making process should provide the best response of society in a flood hazard situation including preparation works and post hazard mitigation. In Slovenia, there is a great lack of data on social aspects and public response to flood mitigation measures and information management. In this paper, two studies of flood perception in the Slovenian town Celje are represented. During its history, Celje was often exposed to floods, the most recent serious floods being in 1990 and in 1998, with a hundred and fifty return period and more than ten year return period, respectively. Two surveys were conducted in 1997 and 2003, with 157 participants from different areas of the town in the first, and 208 in the second study, aiming at finding the general attitude toward the floods. The surveys revealed that floods present a serious threat in the eyes of the inhabitants, and that the perception of threat depends, to a certain degree, on the place of residence. The surveys also highlighted, among the other measures, solidarity and the importance of insurance against floods.

Brilly, M.; Polic, M.

2005-04-01

30

A Bayesian approach for real-time flood forecasting  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The paper describes a methodology based on the Bayesian Forecasting System (BFS), aimed at evaluating total uncertainty in real-time forecasting of flood events. The system was adapted for a small basin in the Calabria region (Southern Italy), assuming a stochastic model as rainfall predictor and a distributed rainfall-runoff model for simulating the hydrological response. Through two separate processors, the system evaluates the input uncertainty and the hydrological uncertainty, associated with all other possible sources of error. To discriminate adequately the effect of more intense rainfall in the hydrological response, the total uncertainty consists of a mixture of two components, conditioned on forecast rainfall, with respect to an assigned threshold, and on discharge observed at the forecast time. The results highlight the role of each BFS component in the real-time forecasting of a flood event.

Biondi, D.; De Luca, D. L.

31

Application of a developed atmospheric-hydrologic-hydraulic flood forecasting model driven by ensemble weather predictions to Chinese watershed  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A coupled atmospheric-hydrologic-hydraulic ensemble flood forecast model, driven by the ‘THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble' (TIGGE) ensemble weather predictions, was developed for flood forecast purpose of complex watershed with flood diversion and retention areas. Hydrological model is used to forecast rainfall-runoff hydrograph, and hydraulic model is used for channel flood routing. In the case of precipitation, NWPs' corrected precipitation is the input of hydrological model. The Xinanjiang model was used for the hydrological rainfall-runoff modeling. One-dimension unsteady flow model was applied for main channel flood routing. The nonlinear of the channel without cross-section data was discussed by non-liner Muskingum method. The input flood discharge hydrograph from the main channel to the flood diversion area is estimated with the fixed split ratio of the main channel discharge. The flood flow inside the flood retention area is calculated as a reservoir with the water balance method. Muskingum method was used for flood routing in flood diversion area. The upper reaches of the Huaihe River above Lutaizi station in China was taken as the test case. The test case, which is a humid watershed, drains an area of 8.86×104 km2, and the length of the channel from Wangjiaba to Lutaizi is 155.16 km. There are three flood diversion areas, four flood retention areas and nine large reservoirs in the test case. There are three large tributaries: the Shi River and Pi River to the south of the Huaihe River, and the Shaying River to the north. The coupled ensemble flood forecasting model was applied to flood forecasting of the upper reaches of the Huaihe River above Lutaizi station during the 2007 and 2008 flood seasons. A probabilistic discharge and flood inundation forecast was provided as the end product to study the potential benefits of using the TIGGE NWPs. The results demonstrated satisfactory flood forecasting with clear signals of probability of floods up to 10 days in advance, and showed that ensemble weather predictions is a promising tool to forecast flood inundation, comparable with that driven by raingauge observation. ACKNOWLEDGE:This work was supported by the Research Fund for Commonweal Trades (Meteorology) (Grant number: GYHY200906007, GYHY200706037 and GYHY(QX)2007-6-1), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 50479017 and 40971016), Innovation China UK(ICUK) Foundation, and the Program for Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Teams in Universities (Grant No. IRT071) Corresponding author (e-mail: baohongjun@cma.gov.cn)

Bao, Hongjun; Zhao, Linna; Li, Zhijia; He, Yi; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Cloke, Hannah; Pappenberger, Florian; Manful, Desmond; Wang, Lili

2010-05-01

32

Flood monitoring for ungauged rivers: the power of combining space-based monitoring and global forecasting models  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flood warning systems typically rely on forecasts from national meteorological services and in-situ observations from hydrological gauging stations. This capacity is not equally developed in flood-prone developing countries. Low-cost satellite monitoring systems and global flood forecasting systems can be an alternative source of information for national flood authorities. The Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) has been develop jointly with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) and the Joint Research Centre, and it is running quasi operational now since June 2011. The system couples state-of-the art weather forecasts with a hydrological model driven at a continental scale. The system provides downstream countries with information on upstream river conditions as well as continental and global overviews. In its test phase, this global forecast system provides probabilities for large transnational river flooding at the global scale up to 30 days in advance. It has shown its real-life potential for the first time during the flood in Southeast Asia in 2011, and more recently during the floods in Australia in March 2012, India (Assam, September-October 2012) and Chad Floods (August-October 2012).The Joint Research Centre is working on further research and development, rigorous testing and adaptations of the system to create an operational tool for decision makers, including national and regional water authorities, water resource managers, hydropower companies, civil protection and first line responders, and international humanitarian aid organizations. Currently efforts are being made to link GloFAS to the Global Flood Detection System (GFDS). GFDS is a Space-based river gauging and flood monitoring system using passive microwave remote sensing which was developed by a collaboration between the JRC and Dartmouth Flood Observatory. GFDS provides flood alerts based on daily water surface change measurements from space. Alerts are shown on a world map, with detailed reports for individual gauging sites. A comparison of discharge estimates from the Global Flood Detection System (GFDS) and the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) with observations for representative climatic zones is presented. Both systems have demonstrated strong potential in forecasting and detecting recent catastrophic floods. The usefulness of their combined information on global scale for decision makers at different levels is discussed. Combining space-based monitoring and global forecasting models is an innovative approach and has significant benefits for international river commissions as well as international aid organisations. This is in line with the objectives of the Hyogo and the Post-2015 Framework that aim at the development of systems which involve trans-boundary collaboration, space-based earth observation, flood forecasting and early warning.

Revilla-Romero, Beatriz; Netgeka, Victor; Raynaud, Damien; Thielen, Jutta

2013-04-01

33

Linking a mesoscale atmospheric model to a catchment model for flood forecasting in New Zealand  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

New Zealand is a land drained by short steep rivers that rise rapidly in response to heavy rainfall (more than 10,000 mm/y in parts of the Southern Alps). Flood forecasting systems that use only measured upstream flows or water levels provide limited flood warning lead times. For many New Zealand rivers there is a need for longer flood warning lead times if flood damage is to be reduced. We report on the feasibility of using meso-scale precipitation model forecasts as input to rainfall-to-runoff models, for the purpose of increasing the lead times for flood forecasts. We have linked the output of the RAMS mesoscale atmospheric model to Topnet, a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff-routing model based around TOPMODEL and kinematic wave routing in a river network. The reliability of the method has been tested on the extensive set of detailed meteorological and hydrological measurements made as part of the 1996 Southern Alps Experiment (SALPEX), in 23 catchments of varying size along both flanks of the Southern Alps. The testing used precipitation generated on a 20 km grid and provided a succession of 48 hour ahead runoff forecasts on a daily basis. The results of the tests indicated that useful runoff forecasts were produced by the combined system and so the development of an operational forecasting system is now in progress. The rainfall produced from the initial mesoscale model had a significant bias (underestimation): further investigation has shown that this was caused by (i) unresolved subgrid variability (a 5km grid is needed) and (ii) an inappropriate cloud physics parameterisation. We report on the resolution of these issues, and our progress in extending the spatial coverage of the hydrological models, with the eventual goal of making national flood forecasts for thousands of river reaches.

Ibbitt, R. P.; Henderson, R. D.; Woods, R. A.; Gray, W. G.; Turner, R.

2003-04-01

34

Flood forecasting and early warning system for Dungun River Basin  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Floods can bring such disasters to the affected dweller due to loss of properties, crops and even deaths. The damages to properties and crops by the severe flooding are occurred due to the increase in the economic value of the properties as well as the extent of the flood. Flood forecasting & warning system is one of the examples of the non-structural measures which can give early warning to the affected people. People who live near the flood-prone areas will be warned so that they can evacuate themselves and their belongings before the arrival of the flood. This can considerably reduce flood loss and damage and above all, the loss of human lives. Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS) model is a runoff analysis model converting rainfall into runoff for a given river basin. The simulation can be done using either ground or satellite-based rainfall to produce calculated discharge within the river. The calculated discharge is used to generate the flood inundation map within the catchment area for the selected flood event using Infowork RS.

Hafiz, I.; Nor, M. D.; Sidek, L. M.; Basri, H.; Fukami, K.; Hanapi, M. N.; Livia, L.

2013-06-01

35

Application research for 4D technology in flood forecasting and evaluation  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In order to monitor the region which disaster flood happened frequently in China, satisfy the great need of province governments for high accuracy monitoring and evaluated data for disaster and improve the efficiency for repelling disaster, under the Ninth Five-year National Key Technologies Programme, the method was researched for flood forecasting and evaluation using satellite and aerial remoted sensed image and land monitor data. The effective and practicable flood forecasting and evaluation system was established and DongTing Lake was selected as the test site. Modern Digital photogrammetry, remote sensing and GIS technology was used in this system, the disastrous flood could be forecasted and loss can be evaluated base on '4D' (DEM -- Digital Elevation Model, DOQ -- Digital OrthophotoQuads, DRG -- Digital Raster Graph, DTI -- Digital Thematic Information) disaster background database. The technology of gathering and establishing method for '4D' disaster environment background database, application technology for flood forecasting and evaluation based on '4D' background data and experimental results for DongTing Lake test site were introduced in detail in this paper.

Li, Ziwei; Liu, Yutong; Cao, Hongjie

1998-08-01

36

Review of British Flood Forecasting Practice.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The feasibility and success of a flood warning scheme depend on many factors, of which data acquisition and procedures for disseminating warnings are particularly important. Although the review examines these topics in some detail, the core of the materia...

D. W. Reed

1984-01-01

37

VERIFICATION OF LONG-RANGE FLOOD FORECASTING PRODUCTS FOR EASTERN IOWA  

Microsoft Academic Search

After the devastating flood of 2008 in Iowa, communities throughout Iowa are recognizing the need to better anticipate future floods. Flood prediction and usage of reliable forecast systems is essential to better prepare the community for the dangers encountered with floods. One of the currently used forecasting systems for eastern Iowa is the Advanced Hydrological Prediction System (AHPS), developed and

M. A. Habib; A. Bradley

2009-01-01

38

Analysis of weather radar and rain gauges for flood forecasting  

Microsoft Academic Search

Real time rainfall for flood forecasting is predominately measured by rain gauges and weather radars. Analysis of rainfall data measured simultaneously by a dense rain gauge network and weather radar over the Brue catchment, during a period of six years, was undertaken using Principal Component Analysis and Cluster Analysis. Wind, temperature, relative humidity for the major storms events over the

M. T. J. Bray; D. Han; I. Cluckie; M. Rico-Ramirez

39

Flash Flood Forecasting: An Ingredients-Based Methodology  

Microsoft Academic Search

An approach to forecasting the potential for flash flood - producing storms is developed, using the notion of basic ingredients. Heavy precipitation is the result of sustained high rainfall rates. In turn, high rainfall rates involve the rapid ascent of air containing substantial water vapor and also depend on the precipitation efficiency. The duration of an event is associated with

Charles A. Doswell; Harold E. Brooks; Robert A. Maddox

1996-01-01

40

Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasts for Flash Flood Warnings at Ungauged Locations  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Development of operational flash flood warning systems is one of the challenges in operational hydrology: flash floods are devastating but difficult to monitor and predict due to their nature. To provide flash flood warnings for ungauged basins, Météo-France and Irstea (formally Cemagref) have developed a discharge-threshold flood warning system called AIGA, which combines radar-gauge rainfall grids with a simplified distributed rainfall-runoff model run every 15 minutes at a 1-km² resolution. Operational since 2005 in the Southern part of France, the AIGA system produces, every 15 minutes, a map of the river network with a color chart indicating the range of the estimated return period of the ongoing flood event. To increase forecast lead time and quantify the forcing input uncertainty, the rainfall-runoff distributed model ingests the 11 precipitation ensemble members from the PEARP ensemble prediction system of Météo-France. Performance of the experimental probabilistic precipitation and flow forecasts is evaluated from a variety of ensemble verification metrics (e.g., Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score, Relative Operating Characteristic score) for different French basins. We also discuss planned enhancements and challenges to assess other sources of hydrologic uncertainty and effectively communicate the uncertainty information to forecasters for better risk-based decision making.

Demargne, Julie; Javelle, Pierre; Organde, Didier; Ramos, Maria-Helena

2013-04-01

41

Development of coupled atmospheric-hydrologic-hydraulic flood forecasting system driven by ensemble weather predictions  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A coupled atmospheric-hydrologic-hydraulic ensemble flood forecast model, driven by the ‘THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble’ (TIGGE) ensemble weather predictions, was developed for flood forecast in complex watersheds with flood diversion and retarding areas. Hydrologic model is used to forecast rainfall-runoff and hydraulic model is used for channel flood routing. The Xinanjiang model was used for the hydrologic rainfall-runoff modeling. One-dimension unsteady flow model was applied for main channel flood routing. The channel routing nonlinear was discussed by non-liner Muskingum method. The flood flow inside the flood retarding area is calculated as a reservoir with the water balance method. Muskingum method was used for flood routing in flood diversion area. The upper reaches with three large tributaties in the Huaihe River above Lutaizi station was taken as the test case. There are four flood diversion areas, three flood retarding areas and nine large reservoirs in the study area. The coupled ensemble flood forecast model was applied for flood forecasting in the upper reaches of the Huaihe River above Lutaizi station during the 2007 and 2008 flood seasons. The results demonstrated satisfactory flood forecasting with clear signals of probability of floods up to 10 days in advance, and showed that ensemble weather predictions is a promising tool to forecast flood inundation, and results are comparable with these driven by using raingauge observations.

Bao, H.; Li, Z.; Yu, Z.

2009-12-01

42

Fuzzy exemplar-based inference system for flood forecasting  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuzzy inference systems have been successfully applied in numerous fields since they can effectively model human knowledge and adaptively make decision processes. In this paper we present an innovative fuzzy exemplar-based inference system (FEIS) for flood forecasting. The FEIS is based on a fuzzy inference system, with its clustering ability enhanced through the Exemplar-Aided Constructor of Hyper-rectangles algorithm, which can effectively simulate human intelligence by learning from experience. The FEIS exhibits three important properties: knowledge extraction from numerical data, knowledge (rule) modeling, and fuzzy reasoning processes. The proposed model is employed to predict streamflow 1 hour ahead during flood events in the Lan-Yang River, Taiwan. For the purpose of comparison the back propagation neural network (BPNN) is also performed. The results show that the FEIS model performs better than the BPNN. The FEIS provides a great learning ability, robustness, and high predictive accuracy for flood forecasting.

Chang, Li-Chiu; Chang, Fi-John; Tsai, Ya-Hsin

2005-02-01

43

Merging multiple precipitation sources for flash flood forecasting  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We investigated the effectiveness of combining gauge observations and satellite-derived precipitation on flood forecasting. Two data merging processes were proposed: the first one assumes that the individual precipitation measurement is non-bias, while the second process assumes that each precipitation source is biased and both weighting factor and bias parameters are to be calculated. Best weighting factors as well as the bias parameters were calculated by minimizing the error of hourly runoff prediction over Wu-Tu watershed in Taiwan. To simulate the hydrologic response from various sources of rainfall sequences, in our experiment, a recurrent neural network (RNN) model was used. The results demonstrate that the merged method used in this study can efficiently combine the information from both rainfall sources to improve the accuracy of flood forecasting during typhoon periods. The contribution of satellite-based rainfall, being represented by the weighting factor, to the merging product, however, is highly related to the effectiveness of ground-based rainfall observation provided gauged. As the number of gauge observations in the basin is increased, the effectiveness of satellite-based observation to the merged rainfall is reduced. This is because the gauge measurements provide sufficient information for flood forecasting; as a result the improvements added on satellite-based rainfall are limited. This study provides a potential advantage for extending satellite-derived precipitation to those watersheds where gauge observations are limited.

Chiang, Yen-Ming; Hsu, Kuo-Lin; Chang, Fi-John; Hong, Yang; Sorooshian, Soroosh

2007-07-01

44

A Modeling Approach for Flash Flood Forecasting for Small Watersheds in Iowa  

Microsoft Academic Search

Current flood predictions are limited by often out-dated statistical guidance and a rigid modeling system that seldom accounts for basin-specific hydrologic response times. The National Weather Service (NWS) SACramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model (SACSMA), which is used to generate short-range (1-7 days) streamflow forecasts, is most commonly run at a 6-hour timestep. The 6-hour timestep can be inadequate for capturing

W. S. Lincoln; K. J. Franz

2008-01-01

45

Performance assessment of a Bayesian Forecasting System (BFS) for real-time flood forecasting  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We evaluate the performance of a BFS adapted for flood prediction in a small basin. Hydrologic uncertainty is crucial for the predictive distribution of river discharge. Four hypotheses, resulting from the BFS properties, were examined. The results emphasize the importance of using different diagnostic approaches to analyze the forecast quality.

Biondi, D.; De Luca, D. L.

2013-02-01

46

Flooding and Flood Management  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Floods result in great human disasters globally and nationally, causing an average of $4 billion of damages each year in the United States. Minnesota has its share of floods and flood damages, and the state has awarded nearly $278 million to local units of government for flood mitigation projects through its Flood Hazard Mitigation Grant Program. Since 1995, flood mitigation in the Red River Valley has exceeded $146 million. Considerable local and state funding has been provided to manage and mitigate problems of excess stormwater in urban areas, flooding of farmlands, and flood damages at road crossings. The cumulative costs involved with floods and flood mitigation in Minnesota are not known precisely, but it is safe to conclude that flood mitigation is a costly business. This chapter begins with a description of floods in Minneosta to provide examples and contrasts across the state. Background material is presented to provide a basic understanding of floods and flood processes, predication, and management and mitigation. Methods of analyzing and characterizing floods are presented because they affect how we respond to flooding and can influence relevant practices. The understanding and perceptions of floods and flooding commonly differ among those who work in flood forecasting, flood protection, or water resource mamnagement and citizens and businesses affected by floods. These differences can become magnified following a major flood, pointing to the need for better understanding of flooding as well as common language to describe flood risks and the uncertainty associated with determining such risks. Expectations of accurate and timely flood forecasts and our ability to control floods do not always match reality. Striving for clarity is important in formulating policies that can help avoid recurring flood damages and costs.

Brooks, K. N.; Fallon, J. D.; Lorenz, D. L.; Stark, J. R.; Menard, Jason

2011-01-01

47

Spatially distributed flood forecasting in flash flood prone areas: Application to road network supervision in Southern France  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A Road Inundation Warning System has been developed for an entire region in France. The system was validated against observed inundations during recent flash floods. It provides satisfactory forecasts of the locations and magnitudes of the floods. The estimation of the road susceptibility to flooding is a key element of the system. Simple rainfall-runoff model may provide valuable information for event management.

Naulin, J.-P.; Payrastre, O.; Gaume, E.

2013-04-01

48

Status and Future of Global Flood and Landslide Nowcasts and Forecasts Using Satellite Precipitation Observations (Invited)  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The advent of quasi-global, real-time precipitation analyses has lead to the reality of running global hydrological models and algorithms for the estimation of the occurrence of floods and rain-induced landslides. These calculations provide information useful to national and international agencies in understanding the intensity, timeline and impact on populations of these significant hazard events. The quality of such applied hydrological estimations should improve with time due to continuation and improvement of multi-satellite precipitation observations through the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) program and the further development of the models and algorithms. This talk will summarize the results from the NASA-based, real-time flood and landslide nowcasts and forecasts and describe directions for improving results going into the GPM era. Global flood and landslide estimation systems have been running in real-time at 0.25° latitude/longitude resolution using multi-satellite rainfall analyses for several years, with results available through the TRMM website (trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov). Published evaluations of the current system indicate useful skill in comparison with global event inventories. The evaluations indicate higher skill for larger rainfall systems (e.g., tropical cyclone landfall vs. flash flood). This result is reasonable considering the resolution of the rainfall information (0.25° and 3-hr) and the resolution of the current models/algorithms (0.25°). Improvements over the next few years will include 1) better precipitation analyses utilizing space-time interpolations that maintain accurate intensity distributions, 2) improved rain estimation for shallow, orographic rainfall systems and some types of monsoon rainfall, 3) higher resolution landslide algorithms with combined physical/empirical approaches, 4) higher resolution flood models with accurate routing and regional calibration, and 5) use of satellite soil moisture for more accurate pre-conditions. In addition, the satellite rainfall and surface observations will be integrated with regional atmospheric models to provide enhanced information for the hydrologic calculations. One example of an experimental step in the use of atmospheric models is the linking of the satellite rainfall to global numerical rainfall forecasts to extend the usefulness of the flood and landslide forecasts. In this example of potential enhancement the model rainfall is adjusted by the satellite observations to provide improved rainfall amounts and flood forecasts. In addition recent results with an improved global hydrological model running at 1/8th degree resolution will be discussed that are shown to produce more realistic evolution of flooding events and more detailed information. These improvements are a few steps in a continuous pathway to simultaneously improve satellite rainfall estimates and their applications to increase the accuracy of hazard estimation and forecasts on a global basis.

Adler, R. F.; Wu, H.; Kirschbaum, D. B.; Policelli, F.; Hong, Y.; Tian, Y.; Pierce, H.

2010-12-01

49

Real-time Flood Forecasting in China Using TOPKAPI  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The early development of real time flood forecasting in China can be dated at the beginning of the '80s of last century. It was at that time that a group of researchers, lead by Prof. Wang Juemou, set up a quasi real-time system at the Ministry of Water Resources, based on a 6 hour collection of data dispatched to Bei Jing via telegraph from all parts of China. Forecasts were then available for the major rivers, such as the Yellow River, the Yangtze River, the Huai He River and the Pearl River. Models were based on the Xinan Jiang model developed by Prof. Zhao and on the S-CLS, namely the combination of the Xinan Jiang model with the CLS, developed by Todini. Later on, other models were also introduced, such as the Sacramento model on the Yellow River on behalf of the Yellow River Conservancy Commission, the Arno model on the Fuchun River, within the frame of a EU funded project and the Mike 11 model on the Yangtze. More recently the distributed hydrological model TOPKAPI, developed at the University of Bologna, was introduced in China as part of the renewal and upgrade of the real time flood forecasting systems in the of Sanmenxia to Huayuankou reach of the Yellow River as well as on the Fuchun River from the outlet of the Xinan Jiang reservoir to Hangzhou. The paper will describe the new real-time flood forecasting systems and their extended performances in the light of the historical development that has taken place during more than 30 years in China,

Todini, E.; Mazzetti, C.

2012-04-01

50

Potential role of passive microwave remote sensing in improving flood forecasts  

Microsoft Academic Search

The potential of using satellite based microwave observations of soil moisture to improve flood predictability was explored during a specific major flood event. Predictability is a key contribution to forecasting skill for regional-scale flooding events occurring over time scales of days to weeks and remote sensing observations could add skill to predictions of flood peak timing and magnitude. Data from

Rajat Bindlish; Wade T. Crow; Thomas J. Jackson

2004-01-01

51

Identifying Effects of Forecast Uncertainty on Flood Control Decision - A Hydro-economic Hedging Framework  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Different from conventional studies developing reservoir operation models and treating forecast as input to obtain operation decisions case by case, this study issues a hydro-economic analysis framework and derives some general relationships between optimal flood control decision and streamflow forecast. By analogy with the hedging rule theory for water supply, we formulate reservoir flood control with a two-stage optimization model, in which the properties of flood damage (i.e., diminishing marginal damage) and the characteristics of forecast uncertainty (i.e., the longer the forecast horizon, the larger the forecast uncertainty) are incorporated to minimize flood risk. We define flood conveying capacity surplus (FCCS) variables to elaborate the trade-offs between the release of current stage (i.e., stage 1) and in the release of future stage (i.e., stage 2). Using Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions, the flood risk trade-off between the two stages is theoretically represented and illustrated by three typical situations depending on forecast uncertainty and flood magnitude. The analytical results also show some complicated effects of forecast uncertainty and flood magnitude on real-time flood control decision: 1) When there is a big flood with a small FCCS, the whole FCCS should be allocated to the current stage to hedge against the more certain and urgent flood risk in the current stage; 2) when there is a medium flood with a moderate FCCS, some FCCS should be allocated to the future stage but more FCCS still should be allocated to the current stage; and 3) when there is a small flood with a large FCCS, more FCCS should be allocated to the future stage than the current stage, as a large FCCS in the future stage can still induce some flood risk (distribution of future stage forecast uncertainty is more disperse) while a moderate FCCS in the current stage can induce a small risk. Moreover, this study also presents a hypothetical case study to analyze the flood risk under Pseudo probabilistic streamflow forecast (pPSF, deterministic forecast with variance) and Real probabilistic streamflow forecast (rPSF, ensemble forecast) forecast uncertainties, which shows ensemble forecast techniques are more efficient on mitigating flood risk.

Zhao, T.; Zhao, J.; Cai, X.; Yang, D.

2011-12-01

52

Application of tank, NAM, ARMA and neural network models to flood forecasting  

Microsoft Academic Search

Two lumped conceptual hydrological models, namely tank and NAM and a neural network model are applied to flood forecasting in two river basins in Thailand, the Wichianburi on the Pasak River and the Tha Wang Pha on the Nan River using the flood forecasting procedure developed in this study. The tank and NAM models were calibrated and verified and found

Tawatchai Tingsanchali; Mahesh Raj Gautam

2000-01-01

53

Radar rainfall estimation for flash flood forecasting in small urban watersheds  

Microsoft Academic Search

Radar rainfall estimation for flash flood forecasting in small, urban catchments is examined through analyses of radar, rain gage and discharge observations from the 14.3 km2 Dead Run drainage basin in Baltimore County, Maryland. The flash flood forecasting problem pushes the envelope of rainfall estimation to time and space scales that are commensurate with the scales at which the fundamental

James A. Smith; Mary Lynn Baeck; Katherine L. Meierdiercks; Andrew J. Miller; Witold F. Krajewski

2007-01-01

54

Radar rainfall estimation for flash flood forecasting in small urban watersheds  

Microsoft Academic Search

Radar rainfall estimation for flash flood forecasting in small, urban catchments is examined through analyses of radar, rain gage and discharge observations from the 14.3km2 Dead Run drainage basin in Baltimore County, Maryland. The flash flood forecasting problem pushes the envelope of rainfall estimation to time and space scales that are commensurate with the scales at which the fundamental governing

James A. Smith; Mary Lynn Baeck; Katherine L. Meierdiercks; Andrew J. Miller; Witold F. Krajewski

2007-01-01

55

Real-Time Flood Forecasting System Using Channel Flow Routing Model with Updating by Particle Filter  

Microsoft Academic Search

A real-time flood forecasting system using channel flow routing model was developed for runoff forecasting at water gauged and ungaged points along river channels. The system is based on a flood runoff model composed of upstream part models, tributary part models and downstream part models. The upstream part models and tributary part models are lumped rainfall-runoff models, and the downstream

R. Kudo; H. Chikamori; A. Nagai

2008-01-01

56

POTENTIAL ROLE OF PASSIVE MICROWAVE REMOTE SENSING IN IMPROVING FLOOD FORECASTS  

Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

The potential of using satellite based microwave observations of soil moisture to improve flood predictability was explored during a specific major flood event. Predictability is a key contribution to forecasting skill for regional-scale flooding events occurring over time scales of days to weeks a...

57

A Modeling Approach for Flash Flood Forecasting for Small Watersheds in Iowa  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Current flood predictions are limited by often out-dated statistical guidance and a rigid modeling system that seldom accounts for basin-specific hydrologic response times. The National Weather Service (NWS) SACramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model (SACSMA), which is used to generate short-range (1-7 days) streamflow forecasts, is most commonly run at a 6-hour timestep. The 6-hour timestep can be inadequate for capturing flood crests in small watersheds (<1500 km2) with 6-12 hour response times. Flood warnings and watches are issued according to Flash Flood Guidance (FFG). FFG is based on statistical relationships between historical streamflow observations, antecedent precipitation and rain rates, and is seldom updated. Modern hydrologic modeling techniques may improve flood forecasting accuracy and lead time in small watersheds. In this study, we apply the US Army Corps Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrological Modeling System (HEC-HMS) to small forecast basins in central Iowa to test the feasibility of using the HEC-HMS in real-time at the Des Moines Weather Forecast Office (DMX). The watershed is configured in a semi- distributed, event-based manner, using the Green and Ampt infiltration model and Muskingum routing. Basin specific soil parameters are estimated from historical simulations from the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model, which is run by Iowa State University's Daily Erosion Project. Additional model parameters are found via GIS and automatic and manual calibration methods. The model is driven by basin-average precipitation estimates obtained from the University of Iowa Hydro-NEXRAD system (based on a 1.0km CAPPI height and simple bias correction). Initial soil moisture estimates are derived from the WEPP product. Input uncertainties, based on radar data analysis, are carried through the operational modeling process to find lower and upper uncertainty bounds for every forecast. Preliminary analysis of the parameters derived from the WEPP product and initial model runs indicate that adjustment of soil surface parameters require continual adjustment throughout the spring and summer season in this highly managed landscape. Future work will include expansion of the current analysis to additional watersheds, and evaluation by NWS personnel at the DMX for operational potential.

Lincoln, W. S.; Franz, K. J.

2008-12-01

58

Estimating the benefits of single value and probability forecasting for flood warning  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flood risk can be reduced by means of flood forecasting, warning and response systems (FFWRS). These systems include a forecasting sub-system which is imperfect, meaning that inherent uncertainties in hydrological forecasts may result in false alarms and missed events. This forecasting uncertainty decreases the potential reduction of flood risk, but is seldom accounted for in estimates of the benefits of FFWRSs. In the present paper, a method to estimate the benefits of (imperfect) FFWRSs in reducing flood risk is presented. The method is based on a hydro-economic model of expected annual damage (EAD) due to flooding, combined with the concept of Relative Economic Value (REV). The estimated benefits include not only the reduction of flood losses due to a warning response, but also consider the costs of the warning response itself, as well as the costs associated with forecasting uncertainty. The method allows for estimation of the benefits of FFWRSs that use either deterministic or probabilistic forecasts. Through application to a case study, it is shown that FFWRSs using a probabilistic forecast have the potential to realise higher benefits at all lead-times. However, it is also shown that provision of warning at increasing lead-time does not necessarily lead to an increasing reduction of flood risk, but rather that an optimal lead-time at which warnings are provided can be established as a function of forecast uncertainty and the cost-loss ratio of the user receiving and responding to the warning.

Verkade, J. S.; Werner, M. G. F.

2011-12-01

59

Cyclone induced storm surge and flood forecasting in the northern Bay of Bengal  

Microsoft Academic Search

A cyclone induced storm surge and flood forecasting system that has been developed for the northern Bay of Bengal is presented. The developed system includes a cyclone forecasting model that uses statistical models for forecasting of the cyclone track and maximum wind speed, and an analytical cyclone model for generation of cyclone wind and pressure fields. A data assimilation system

Henrik Madsen; Flemming Jakobsen

2004-01-01

60

Challenges in communicating and using ensemble forecasts in operational flood risk management  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Following trends in operational weather forecasting, where ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are now increasingly the norm, a number of hydrological and flood forecasting centres internationally have begun to experiment with using similar ensemble methods. Most of the research to date has focused on the substantial technical challenges of developing coupled rainfall-runoff systems to represent the full cascade of uncertainties involved in predicting future flooding. As a consequence much less attention has been given to the communication and eventual use of EPS flood forecasts. Thus, this talk addresses the general understanding and communicative challenges in using EPS in operational flood forecasting. Drawing on a set of 48 semi-structured interviews conducted with flood forecasters, meteorologists and civil protection authorities (CPAs) dispersed across 17 European countries, this presentation pulls out some of the tensions between the scientific development of EPS and their application in flood risk management. The scientific uncertainties about whether or not a flood will occur comprise only part of the wider ‘decision' uncertainties faced by those charged with flood protection, who must also consider questions about how warnings they issue will subsequently be interpreted. By making those first order scientific uncertainties more explicit, ensemble forecasts can sometimes complicate, rather than clarify, the second order decision uncertainties they are supposed to inform.

Nobert, Sébastien; Demeritt, David; Cloke, Hannah

2010-05-01

61

New radar technology may improve flash flood forecasting  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Between rain and hail lies the story. Recognizing the difference between the two forms of precipitation could provide more accurate—and possibly earlier—warnings of flash floods, such as those that have plagued parts of the U.S. West this summer.The NEXRAD, or WSR-88D, Doppler National Weather Service (NWS) radars, which measure only the horizontal polarity of the precipitation, cannot distinguish between the two. But an experimental type of radar with dual-polarimetry technology can tell the rain from the hail. While this polarimetric technology is no magic pill for protecting people and property from flash floods, it could make a big difference, according to some weather experts. Scientists currently are conducting field tests of the devices, and hope to convince federal funding agencies that the technology offers social and economic benefits significant enough to justify retrofitting NWS radars within a few years.

Showstack, Randy

62

Application Study of Empirical Model and Xiaohuajian Flood Forecasting Model in the Middle Yellow River  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiaolandi-Huayuankou region is an important rainstorm centre in the middle Yellow river, which drainage area of 35883km2. A set of forecasting methods applied in this region was formed throughout years of practice. The Xiaohuajian flood forecasting model and empirical model were introduced in this paper. The simulated processes of the Xiaohuajian flood forecasting model include evapotranspiration, infiltration, runoff, river flow. Infiltration and surface runoff are calculated utilizing the Horton model for infiltration into multilayered soil profiles. Overland flow is routed by Nash instantaneous unit hydrograph and Section Muskingum method. The empirical model are simulated using P~Pa~R and empirical relation approach for runoff generation and concentration. The structures of these two models were analyzed and compared in detail. Yihe river basin located in Xiaolandi-Huayuankou region was selected for the purpose of the study. The results show that the accuracy of the two methods are similar, however, the accuracy of Xiaohuajian flood forecasting model for flood forecasting is relatively higher, especially the process of the flood; the accuracy of the empirical methods is much worse, but it can also be accept. The two models are both practicable, so the two models can be combined to apply. The result of the Xiaohuajian flood forecasting model can be used to guide the reservoir for flood control, and the result of empirical methods can be as a reference.

Hu, Caihong

2013-04-01

63

Emerging Trends of Computational Grid Based Near Real Time\\/Real Time Flood Assessment and Forecasting Models  

Microsoft Academic Search

From recent past, the computational Grid based flood assessment and forecasting models is getting emerged as an interdisciplinary integrated `near real time\\/real time model'. Many such, Grid based flood assessment and forecasting model supports in logically integrating various components of flood related scientific simulations such as Metrological, Hydrological, Hydraulic, RADAR, LIDAR Remote Sensing, GIS, Satellite Communication and other technologies and

M. Manavalan; S. Chattopadhyay; M. Mangala; Y. S. Rao

2010-01-01

64

Using High Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction Models to Reduce and Estimate Uncertainty in Flood Forecasting  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forecast rainfall from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and/or nowcasting systems is a major source of uncertainty for short-term flood forecasting. One approach for reducing and estimating this uncertainty is to use high resolution NWP models that should provide better rainfall predictions. The potential benefit of running the Met Office Unified Model (UM) with a grid spacing of 4 and 1 km compared to the current operational resolution of 12 km is assessed using the January 2005 Carlisle flood in northwest England. These NWP rainfall forecasts, and forecasts from the Nimrod nowcasting system, were fed into the lumped Probability Distributed Model (PDM) and the distributed Grid-to-Grid model to predict river flow at the outlets of two catchments important for flood warning. The results show the benefit of increased resolution in the UM, the benefit of coupling the high- resolution rainfall forecasts to hydrological models and the improvement in timeliness of flood warning that might have been possible. Ongoing work aims to employ these NWP rainfall forecasts in ensemble form as part of a procedure for estimating the uncertainty of flood forecasts.

Cole, S. J.; Moore, R. J.; Roberts, N.

2007-12-01

65

A distributed hydrological model for drought and flood forecast in the upper Yangtze River basin  

Microsoft Academic Search

The Yangzte River (also called Changjiang in Chinese) is the largest river basin in China, which has frequent flood and drought. Building on the physically-based description of hydrological processes, a distributed model has been established in the upper Yangtze River for drought and flood forecast have been addressed in this study. For assessing water resources and drought, a large scale

X. Jijun; Y. Dawen; L. Zhidong; H. Wei

2007-01-01

66

Accounting for Uncertainties in Generating Reliable Probabilistic Flood Forecasts for Bangladesh  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The country of Bangladesh experiences life-threatening floods in the basins of the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers flowing through the country with tragic regularity. These floods result in loss of life on a scale that often greatly eclipses the deaths due to natural disasters in developed countries. Flooding in these basins can occur on weekly time scales (as occurred during the severe Brahmaputra floods of 2004 and of this year) to seasonal time scales (as occurred during the disastrous floods of 1998). Beginning in 2003, the Climate Forecasting Applications for Bangladesh (CFAB) project began issuing operational probabilistic flood forecasts to the country of Bangladesh over a wide-range of time scales to provide advanced warning of severe flood-stage discharges in the catchments of the Ganges and Brahmaputra basins. In this paper we discuss the uncertainty estimator module to our 1- to 10-day in-advance automated real-time operational multi-model flood forecast scheme for the upper basins of the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers. These forecasts are based on an application of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 51-member ensemble weather forecasts, near-real-time GPCP and CMORPH satellite and NOAA CPC rain gauge precipitation estimates, and near-real- time discharge estimates from the Bangladesh Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre. The uncertainty estimator module estimates multi-model hydrologic error utilizing daily-updated hindcasts, which are separate from the forecasted weather variable uncertainty. Such a separation of error sources is done to maximize the sharpness of the final forecast probability distribution function (PDF), as well as to enhance the utility of the ensemble spread as an indicator of ensemble skill; for this latter feature of ensemble forecasts, we also present a new measure to test the spread-skill utility. In the final step of the uncertainty module, we merge these two sources of uncertainty together while at the same time providing an additional forecast error correction. This last step utilizes a relatively- unused statistical tool that ensures reliability in the PDF while ensuring skill no worse than a climatological forecast or persistence.

Hopson, T. M.; Webster, P. J.

2007-12-01

67

Using High Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction Models to Reduce and Estimate Uncertainty in Flood Forecasting  

Microsoft Academic Search

Forecast rainfall from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and\\/or nowcasting systems is a major source of uncertainty for short-term flood forecasting. One approach for reducing and estimating this uncertainty is to use high resolution NWP models that should provide better rainfall predictions. The potential benefit of running the Met Office Unified Model (UM) with a grid spacing of 4 and 1

S. J. Cole; R. J. Moore; N. Roberts

2007-01-01

68

A methodology for evaluation of flood forecast-response systems: 1. Analyses and concepts  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Determination of the value of flood forecasts at a microeconomic level necessitates the consideration of numerous hydrologic, organizational, behavioral, and economic factors. These factors and their interactions are captured in a concept of a flood forecast-response (FFR) system. The forecast system extends from the collection of data through the forecasting of floods to the dissemination of warnings. The response system encompasses decision making by the floodplain dweller and the protective actions he takes. A methodology for evaluation of the performance of FFR systems is presented. It concerns specifically the economic evaluation of the effectiveness of riverine flood forecasts as a means of reducing property damage. The methodology is built of (1) a model of the FFR process and (2) a performance theory. The first element provides a comprehensive mathematical description of the physical FFR process which takes place during floodings; it outputs the expected annual losses (cost of protective action plus flood damage) incurred by the floodplain dweller under several scenarios. The second element establishes the performance measures and expresses them in terms of the outputs of the FFR model; the measures consist of values (expected annual reductions of the loss), efficiencies, and expected opportunity losses. This part presents a system analysis of the FFR process, describes the general structure of the methodology, and introduces the performance theory. The second part details the theory, and the third part reports three case studies.

Krzysztofowicz, Roman; Davis, Donald R.

1983-12-01

69

Flash-flood early warning using weather radar data: from nowcasting to forecasting  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

This study explores the limits of radar-based forecasting for hydrological runoff prediction. Two novel probabilistic radar-based forecasting chains for flash-flood early warning are investigated in three catchments in the Southern Swiss Alps and set in relation to deterministic discharge forecast for the same catchments. The first probabilistic radar-based forecasting chain is driven by NORA (Nowcasting of Orographic Rainfall by means of Analogues), an analogue-based heuristic nowcasting system to predict orographic rainfall for the following eight hours. The second probabilistic forecasting system evaluated is REAL-C2, where the numerical weather prediction COSMO-2 is initialized with 25 different initial conditions derived from a four-day nowcast with the radar ensemble REAL. Additionally, three deterministic forecasting chains were analysed. The performance of these five flash-flood forecasting systems was analysed for 1389 h between June 2007 and December 2010 for which NORA forecasts were issued, due to the presence of orographic forcing. We found a clear preference for the probabilistic approach. Discharge forecasts perform better when forced by NORA rather than by a persistent radar QPE for lead times up to eight hours and for all discharge thresholds analysed. The best results were, however, obtained with the REAL-C2 forecasting chain, which was also remarkably skilful even with the highest thresholds. However, for regions where REAL cannot be produced, NORA might be an option for forecasting events triggered by orographic precipitation.

Liechti, K.; Panziera, L.; Germann, U.; Zappa, M.

2013-01-01

70

Flash-flood early warning using weather radar data: from nowcasting to forecasting  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In our study we explore the limits of radar-based forecasting for hydrological runoff prediction. Two novel probabilistic radar-based forecasting chains for flash-flood early warning are investigated in three catchments in the Southern Swiss Alps and set in relation to deterministic discharge forecast for the same catchments. The first probabilistic radar-based forecasting chain is driven by NORA (Nowcasting of Orographic Rainfall by means of Analogues), an analogue-based heuristic nowcasting system to predict orographic rainfall for the following eight hours. The second probabilistic forecasting system evaluated is REAL-C2, where the numerical weather prediction COSMO-2 is initialized with 25 different initial conditions derived from a four-day nowcast with the radar ensemble REAL. Additionally, three deterministic forecasting chains were analysed. The performance of these five flash-flood forecasting systems was analysed for 1389 hours between June 2007 and December 2010 for which NORA forecasts were issued, due to the presence of orographic forcing. We found a clear preference for the probabilistic approach. Discharge forecasts perform better when forced by NORA rather than by a persistent radar QPE for lead times up to eight hours and for all discharge thresholds analysed. The best results were, however, obtained with the REAL-C2 forecasting chain, which was also remarkably skilful even with the highest thresholds. However, for regions where REAL cannot be produced, NORA might be an option for forecasting events triggered by orographic forcing.

Liechti, Katharina; Panziera, Luca; Germann, Urs; Zappa, Massimiliano

2013-04-01

71

Forecasting skills of the ensemble hydro-meteorological system for the Po river floods  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The Po basin is the largest and most economically important river-basin in Italy. Extreme hydrological events, including floods, flash floods and droughts, are expected to become more severe in the next future due to climate change, and related ground effects are linked both with environmental and social resilience. A Warning Operational Center (WOC) for hydrological event management was created in Emilia Romagna region. In the last years, the WOC faced challenges in legislation, organization, technology and economics, achieving improvements in forecasting skill and information dissemination. Since 2005, an operational forecasting and modelling system for flood modelling and forecasting has been implemented, aimed at supporting and coordinating flood control and emergency management on the whole Po basin. This system, referred to as FEWSPo, has also taken care of environmental aspects of flood forecast. The FEWSPo system has reached a very high level of complexity, due to the combination of three different hydrological-hydraulic chains (HEC-HMS/RAS - MIKE11 NAM/HD, Topkapi/Sobek), with several meteorological inputs (forecasted - COSMOI2, COSMOI7, COSMO-LEPS among others - and observed). In this hydrological and meteorological ensemble the management of the relative predictive uncertainties, which have to be established and communicated to decision makers, is a debated scientific and social challenge. Real time activities face professional, modelling and technological aspects but are also strongly interrelated with organization and human aspects. The authors will report a case study using the operational flood forecast hydro-meteorological ensemble, provided by the MIKE11 chain fed by COSMO_LEPS EQPF. The basic aim of the proposed approach is to analyse limits and opportunities of the long term forecast (with a lead time ranging from 3 to 5 days), for the implementation of low cost actions, also looking for a well informed decision making and the improvement of flood preparedness and crisis management for basins greater than 1.000 km2.

Ricciardi, Giuseppe; Montani, Andrea; Paccagnella, Tiziana; Pecora, Silvano; Tonelli, Fabrizio

2013-04-01

72

Study on snowmelt flood forecasting based on 3S technologies and DSS  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flood disaster is one of the most frequently and the biggest natural disasters in the world, and snowmelt floods which break out in spring often bring enormous social and economic loss, especially in arid and semi-arid areas, such as in Northern Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang, China. Any effective prevention or mitigation of disasters is built on the basis of forecasting, so the real-time processing, snow information analysis, and weather forecasting, are combined into a system which can provide intelligent reports and prewarning information of snowmelt flood duly and accurately for the government departments or other organizations. So it is of great significance for flood prevention and disaster reduction. Furthermore, effective forecasting and prewarning can generate enormous social, economic and ecological benefits, so the establishment of a real-time, efficient and reliable Flood Forecasting/Prewarning DSS, is an important part of the building of non-engineering measures for flood prevention and disaster reduction. Now the integrated applications of remote sensing(RS), geographic information systems(GIS) and global positioning systems(GPS), named "3S" technologies, have been infiltrated through hydrology and water resource management, and there are rapid developments and extensive applications of Decision Support System (DSS) in recent years in many fields. But there is seldom appearance of mature applications of Snowmelt Flood Forecasting/Prewarning DSS, and a shortage of study on effective Snowmelt Flood Forecasting. In this paper, firstly, a Distributed Snowmelt Runoff Model had been built based on the "3S" technologies, and then a Snowmelt Flood Forecasting DSS based on the B/S (Browser server) and J2EE structure had been established, then introduced the T213 Numerical Forecasting Production from WRF mode and revised it with our synchronous field observation data. Various snow information and other basic geoinformation also had been extracted from RS imagines or other data with RS and GIS tools. At last, snowmelt flood based on "3S" technologies and DSS had been forested in the typical study area, Quergou River Basin, which is located in the middle of the Northern Tianshan Mountains, Xinjiang, China, and is contrasted with the latter measured runoff. Good forecasting results had been achieved, and the average accuracy was up to 0.90.

Fang, Shifeng; Pei, Huan; Liu, Zhihui; Dai, Wei; Liu, Yongqiang; Zhao, Qiudong; Feng, Lin

2008-10-01

73

Flash floods forecasting without rainfalls forecasts by recurrent neural networks. Case study on the Mialet basin (Southern France)  

Microsoft Academic Search

The feasibility of flash flood prediction without rainfall forecasts nor previous discharge is considered. After a presentation of the important stakes involved in this task (23 fatalities in the Var event in June 2010, France) the important stage of variable and complexity selection is addressed for the small basin of Mialet (a part of the Gardon d'Anduze basin, in Southern

G. Artigue; A. Johannet; V. Borrell; S. Pistre

2011-01-01

74

24 CFR 570.605 - National Flood Insurance Program.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

...2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false National Flood Insurance Program. 570.605 Section...Program Requirements § 570.605 National Flood Insurance Program. Notwithstanding...CFR part 91), section 202(a) of the Flood Disaster Protection Act of 1973...

2013-04-01

75

Improving probabilistic flood forecasting through a data assimilation scheme based on genetic programming  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Opportunities offered by high performance computing provide a significant degree of promise in the enhancement of the performance of real-time flood forecasting systems. In this paper, a real-time framework for probabilistic flood forecasting through data assimilation is presented. The distributed rainfall-runoff real-time interactive basin simulator (RIBS) model is selected to simulate the hydrological process in the basin. Although the RIBS model is deterministic, it is run in a probabilistic way through the results of calibration developed in a previous work performed by the authors that identifies the probability distribution functions that best characterise the most relevant model parameters. Adaptive techniques improve the result of flood forecasts because the model can be adapted to observations in real time as new information is available. The new adaptive forecast model based on genetic programming as a data assimilation technique is compared with the previously developed flood forecast model based on the calibration results. Both models are probabilistic as they generate an ensemble of hydrographs, taking the different uncertainties inherent in any forecast process into account. The Manzanares River basin was selected as a case study, with the process being computationally intensive as it requires simulation of many replicas of the ensemble in real time.

Mediero, L.; Garrote, L.; Chavez-Jimenez, A.

2012-12-01

76

Use of a snowmelt model for weekly flood forecast for a major reservoir in Lithuania  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A snowmelt model is used for the weekly forecast of daily discharges in the Kaunas reservoir, Lithuania. The results are used to feed a risk-based decision-making model developed by the first author for dam operation during floods. Physically based calibration of a degree-day model is carried out and coupled with flow routing using Nash's instantaneous unit hydrograph theory. Temperature forecast is used as the driving variable. Due to the relative smoothness of snowmelt over time and the considerable basin size, the model provides acceptable results. Kalman filtering is then used to merge the estimates from the snowmelt model with those from an ARIMA flow model, resulting in better forecasting than that using each method alone. Uncertainty analysis of the snowmelt-model results is then carried out, showing considerable influence of the main parameter degree-day and of soil moisture conditions. Therefore these must be accurately estimated for forecasting purposes during flood events.

Simaityte, Jurgita; Bocchiola, Daniele; Augutis, Juozas; Rosso, Renzo

77

Limitations of real-time models for forecasting river flooding from monsoon rainfall  

Microsoft Academic Search

Very intense rainfall during the southwest and northeast monsoons causes severe river flooding in India. Some traditional\\u000a techniques used for real-time forecasting of flooding involve the relationship between effective rainfall and direct surface\\u000a runoff, which simplifies the complex interactions between rainfall and runoff processes. There are, however, serious problems\\u000a in deducing these variables in real time, so it is highly

Muthiah Perumal; Bhabagrahi Sahoo

2007-01-01

78

Status and Future of a Real-time Global Flood Detection and Forecasting System Using Satellite Rainfall Information  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Over the last several years a Global Flood Monitoring System (GFMS) has been running in real-time to detect the occurrence of floods (see trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov and click on "Floods and Landslides"). The system uses 3-hr resolution composite rainfall analyses (TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis [TMPA]) as input into a hydrological model that calculates water depth at each grid (at 0.25 degree latitude-longitude) over the tropics and mid-latitudes. These calculations can provide information useful to national and international agencies in understanding the location, intensity, timeline and impact on populations of these significant hazard events. The status of these flood calculations will be shown by case study examples and a statistical comparison against a global flood event database. The validation study indicates that results improve with longer duration (> 3 days) floods and that the statistics are impacted by the presence of dams, which are not accounted for in the model calculations. Limitations in the flood calculations that are related to the satellite rainfall estimates include space and time resolution limitations and underestimation of shallow orographic and monsoon system rainfall. The current quality of these flood estimations is at the level of being useful, but there is a potential for significant improvement, mainly through improved and more timely satellite precipitation information and improvement in the hydrological models being used. NASA's Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) program should lead to better precipitation analyses utilizing space-time interpolations that maintain accurate intensity distributions along with methods to disaggregate the rain information research should lead to improved rain estimation for shallow, orographic rainfall systems and some types of monsoon rainfall, a current problem area for satellite rainfall. Higher resolution flood models with accurate routing and regional calibration, and the use of satellite soil moisture retrievals should advance the state-of-the-art. Examples of some of these advances will be shown, focusing on the use of higher resolution hydrologic models. The use of forecast precipitation to augment the satellite-observed rainfall estimates and extrapolate the flood estimates for 1-5 day forecasts will also be discussed.

Adler, R. F.; Wu, H.; Hong, Y.; Policelli, F.; Pierce, H.

2011-12-01

79

Climate and National Security: Securing Better Forecasts.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The Office of Naval Research served as an important donor to a symposium held June 21-23, 2010 at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography entitled Climate and National Security: Securing Better Forecasts . The Principal Investigator was Reno L. Harnish II...

2011-01-01

80

A channel dynamics model for real-time flood forecasting  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A new channel dynamics scheme (alternative system predictor in real time (ASPIRE)), designed specifically for real-time river flow forecasting, is introduced to reduce uncertainty in the forecast. ASPIRE is a storage routing model that limits the influence of catchment model forecast errors to the downstream station closest to the catchment. Comparisons with the Muskingum routing scheme in field tests suggest that the ASPIRE scheme can provide more accurate forecasts, probably because discharge observations are used to a maximum advantage and routing reaches (and model errors in each reach) are uncoupled. Using ASPIRE in conjunction with the Kalman filter did not improve forecast accuracy relative to a deterministic updating procedure. Theoretical analysis suggests that this is due to a large process noise to measurement noise ratio.

Hoos, Anne B.; Koussis, Antonis D.; Beale, Guy O.

1989-04-01

81

A comparison of different approaches for forecasting spring floods in Sweden  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In seasonally snow covered regions, such as Sweden, the winter precipitation often falls as snow which is temporarily stored in the snow pack during the colder months. This storage is later released over a relatively short period of intense flows during in the warmer months. These spring flood events dominate the hydrology of these regions and therefore there is a real interest in reliable hydrological forecasts of these events. In the state-of-the-art forecasting approach for three catchments in Sweden, the HBV model is firstly run using observed temperature and precipitation up until the time of the forecast, that way producing an optimal description of the hydro-meteorological conditions. Then temperature and precipitation data, for the period corresponding with that being forecasted, from all historical years since 1961 is used to create an ensemble of model runs representing possible evolutions in the coming period. Since all historical years are used, the (median) forecast is climatological, i.e. it predicts the spring flood under the assumption that the development of the weather in the forecasting period will be normal. The forecast error will thus be larger the more unusual the weather develops, provided that the initial HBV-condition represents reality well. In this study, three different ensemble forecast approaches to spring flood forecasting were compared to the state-of-the-art operational method. (1) A reduced historical ensemble approach, where analogue years from the historical dataset are selected to run the hydrological model. (2) Using meteorological seasonal forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to run the hydrological model. (3) Statically downscaling large-scale circulation variables from ECMWF seasonal forecasts to accumulated discharge using the Singular Value Decomposition method. The different approaches were evaluated for forecasts issued on 1/1, 1/3 and 1/5 for the spring floods 2000-2010 in the rivers Vindelälven, Ångermanälven and Ljusnan. The evaluation was mainly performed in terms of the mean absolute error (MAE) of accumulated discharge with the state-of-the-art forecast as a reference. Also the frequency of cases when the new approach outperformed the state-of-the-art forecast was calculated and used. The results indicate that some reduction of the forecast error seems attainable for Vindelälven and Ångermanälven, whereas none of the single approaches generated any clear improvement for Ljusnan. This is probably because the spring floods in the former rivers are more clearly related to snow melt. The largest improvement was found for the 1/1-forecasts using the statistical downscaling approach, while the reduced ensemble approach gave the best improvement when considering all forecast dates. Using ECMWF seasonal forecasts approach did not generate any improvements; an analysis of the ECWMF forecasts indicated clearly overestimated precipitation in Feb-Apr and temperature in Jun-Jul, as compared with catchment observations.

Foster, K.; Olsson, J.; Uvo, C.; Yang, W.; Söderling, J.

2012-04-01

82

Ensemble Flood Forecasting in Africa: A Feasibility Study in the Juba-Shabelle River Basin  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Over the last years the African continent has increasingly experienced severe transnational floods that caused substantial socio-economic losses and put enormous pressure on countries across the continent. The planning, coordination and realization of flood prevention, protection and mitigation measures require time, which can be provided through an early flood prediction. In this paper, the transferability of the European Flood Alert System (EFAS) to equatorial African basins is assessed. EFAS achieves early flood warnings for large to medium-size river basins with lead times of 10 days. This is based on probabilistic weather forecasts, the exceedance of alert thresholds and persistence indicators. These methodologies, having been tested for different events and time scales in mid-latitude basins in Europe, are being applied in this paper to the Juba-Shabella river basin, shared between Ethopia and Somalia. A variety of different meteorological data sources have been used, including ERA-40 and CHARM for the calculation of climatologies. The unique re-forecasts of the current operational ECMWF model provided hindcasts of historic flood events. The results show that for the selected flood events a detection rate of 85% was achieved, with a high accuracy in terms of timing and magnitude.

Thiemig, Vera; Pappenberger, Florian; Thielen, Jutta; Gadain, Hussein; de Roo, Ad; Bodis, Katalin; Del Medico, Mauro; Muthusi, Flavian

2010-05-01

83

Continuous hydrological modelling in the context of real time flood forecasting in alpine Danube tributary catchments  

Microsoft Academic Search

A hydrological modelling framework applied within operational flood forecasting systems in three alpine Danube tributary basins, Traisen, Salzach and Enns, is presented. A continuous, semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model, accounting for the main hydrological processes of snow accumulation and melt, interception, evapotranspiration, infiltration, runoff generation and routing is set up. Spatial discretization relies on the division of watersheds into subbasins and subsequently

Philipp Stanzel; Bianca Kahl; Ulrich Haberl; Mathew Herrnegger; H. P. Nachtnebel

2008-01-01

84

Rainfall forecasting using an artificial neural network model to prevent flash floods  

Microsoft Academic Search

Flash floods are a dangerous natural disaster as they have killed more people than any other natural disaster and caused millions of ringgit in property damage. This paper presents a new approach for modeling rainfall forecasting using the artificial neural network technique (ANN). Daily actual data from the years 2007 to 2010, collected from 3 main stations in Selangor, were

Izyan'Izzati Abdul Rahman; Nik Mohd Asrol Alias

2011-01-01

85

Hydrological flood forecasting for permeable catchments using extended rainfall-runoff models  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A groundwater model component is formulated for use as an extension of existing rainfall-runoff models so as to improve flood forecasts for permeable catchments. It accommodates common hydrological features that many rainfall-runoff models do not represent: ephemeral streamflow, pumped abstractions, external spring flows and underflows beneath the river gauging station. It also supports simulation of well levels in addition to river flows. Here, the utility for real-time flood forecasting of the groundwater model component is assessed by using it as an extension of the PDM (Probability Distributed Model), a rainfall-runoff model employed operationally in many countries. Two catchments on the Chalk Downs of southern England are used as case studies. A major challenge when introducing the new functionality for permeable catchments is to enforce mass balance in a conceptually meaningful way, paying special attention to the specification of the model inputs. Sensitivity analyses on the forms of model input to use operationally are performed, which quantify the impact of factors such as varying the combination of raingauges used and their weighting, the value of radar rainfall, and the choice of potential evaporation and abstraction records to employ. An emulation of the real-time application of the model in forecast-mode demonstrates its potential to forewarn of the rapid rise in river flow during the onset of major flood events. Model performance assessments highlight the benefit the extended PDM could have for flood warning and advance operation of flood alleviation facilities for permeable catchments.

Howard, Phil J.; Cole, Steven J.; Moore, Robert J.

2010-05-01

86

Application of Grey Model and Artificial Neural Networks to Flood Forecasting  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The main focus of this study was to compare the Grey model and several artificial neural network (ANN) models for real time flood forecasting, including a comparison of the models for various lead times (ranging from one to six hours). For hydrological applications, the Grey model has the advantage that it can easily be used in forecasting without assuming that forecast storm events exhibit the same stochastic characteristics as the storm events themselves. The major advantage of an ANN in rainfall-runoff modeling is that there is no requirement for any prior assumptions regarding the processes involved. The Grey model and three ANN models were applied to a 2,509 km2 watershed in the Republic of Korea to compare the results for real time flood forecasting with from one to six hours of lead time. The fifth-order Grey model and the ANN models with the optimal network architectures, represented by ANN1004 (34 input nodes, 21 hidden nodes, and 1 output node), ANN1010 (40 input nodes, 25 hidden nodes, and 1 output node), and ANN1004T (14 input nodes, 21 hidden nodes, and 1 output node), were adopted to evaluate the effects of time lags and differences between area mean and point rainfall. The Grey model and the ANN models, which provided reliable forecasts with one to six hours of lead time, were calibrated and their datasets validated. The results showed that the Grey model and the ANN1010 model achieved the highest level of performance in forecasting runoff for one to six lead hours. The ANN model architectures (ANN1004 and ANN1010) that used point rainfall data performed better than the model that used mean rainfall data (ANN1004T) in the real time forecasting. The selected models thus appear to be a useful tool for flood forecasting in Korea.

Kang, Moon Seong; Kang, Min Goo; Park, Seung Woo; Lee, Jeong Jae; Yoo, Kyung Hak

2006-04-01

87

Climate forecasts in disaster management: Red Cross flood operations in West Africa, 2008.  

PubMed

In 2008, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) used a seasonal forecast for West Africa for the first time to implement an Early Warning, Early Action strategy for enhanced flood preparedness and response. Interviews with disaster managers suggest that this approach improved their capacity and response. Relief supplies reached flood victims within days, as opposed to weeks in previous years, thereby preventing further loss of life, illness, and setbacks to livelihoods, as well as augmenting the efficiency of resource use. This case demonstrates the potential benefits to be realised from the use of medium-to-long-range forecasts in disaster management, especially in the context of potential increases in extreme weather and climate-related events due to climate variability and change. However, harnessing the full potential of these forecasts will require continued effort and collaboration among disaster managers, climate service providers, and major humanitarian donors. PMID:23066755

Braman, Lisette Martine; van Aalst, Maarten Krispijn; Mason, Simon J; Suarez, Pablo; Ait-Chellouche, Youcef; Tall, Arame

2012-10-16

88

GloFAS - global ensemble streamflow forecasting and flood early warning  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anticipation and preparedness for large-scale flood events have a key role in mitigating their impact and optimizing the strategic planning of water resources. Although several developed countries have well-established systems for river monitoring and flood early warning, figures of populations affected every year by floods in developing countries are unsettling. This paper presents the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS), which has been set up to provide an overview on upcoming floods in large world river basins. GloFAS is based on distributed hydrological simulation of numerical ensemble weather predictions with global coverage. Streamflow forecasts are compared statistically to climatological simulations to detect probabilistic exceedance of warning thresholds. In this article, the system setup is described, together with an evaluation of its performance over a two-year test period and a qualitative analysis of a case study for the Pakistan flood, in summer 2010. It is shown that hazardous events in large river basins can be skilfully detected with a forecast horizon of up to 1 month. In addition, results suggest that an accurate simulation of initial model conditions and an improved parameterization of the hydrological model are key components to reproduce accurately the streamflow variability in the many different runoff regimes of the earth.

Alfieri, L.; Burek, P.; Dutra, E.; Krzeminski, B.; Muraro, D.; Thielen, J.; Pappenberger, F.

2013-03-01

89

Scientific and Engineering Issues in Design and Forecasting for Floods  

Microsoft Academic Search

The article assesses problem areas identified in publications dealing with the 1993 flood on the Mississippi and Missouri river basins. This event, because of its long duration, gave federal and state agencies an unequaled opportunity to marshal1 data-gathering teams who collected data as the event progressed. Recent development of new instruments and strategies for measuring streamflows and bathymetry quickly and

W. Hall C. Maxwell

1996-01-01

90

Forecasting future water levels to aid in flash flood risk management  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flash floods are typically triggered by local intense rainfall in small catchments with short response times. The work presented explores the use of ensemble numerical weather prediction products coupled with a simplified hydrological model to forecast such floods, with up to 2 days lead time, when water level observations can be regularly assimilated. The techniques outlined are presented with reference to a case study, the Gardon d'Anduze basin in France. A Data Based Mechanistic time series model of the rainfall run-off dynamics of the catchment is constructed. The model formulated to address two common sources of observational errors, shifting baselines in the water level observation and incorrect characterisation of the magnitude of the precipitation. It is cast in a state space form shown to be an effective forecaster when driven by observed precipitation data. Substitution of ensemble precipitation forecasts the observed data is used to generate forecasts with with longer lead times. A simple adaptation of the hydrological model is used to represent the uncertainty in the forecasts that may result from incorrect characterisation of the magnitude of the forecast precipitation. Observed water levels are assimilated condition the model forecasts. They can be used both to condition the initial states to the hydrological model prior to being run with the ensemble NWP input but also to condition the hydrological forecasts generated by running the ensemble NWP inputs after they have been generated. The balance between using the hydrological forecasts of most recent NWP ensemble, or those of an older generated by an older ensemble which have undergone more data assimilation is considered.

Smith, P. J.; Beven, K.; Marchandise, A.; Pappenberger, F.

2012-04-01

91

River flood forecasting with a neural network model  

Microsoft Academic Search

A neural network model was developed to analyze and forecast the behavior of the river Tagliamento, in Italy, during heavy rain periods. The model makes use of distributed rainfall information coming from several rain gauges in the mountain district and predicts the water level of the river at the section closing the mountain district. The water level at the closing

Marina Campolo; Paolo Andreussi; Alfredo Soldati

1999-01-01

92

Short-term flood forecasting with a neurofuzzy model  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

This study explores the potential of the neurofuzzy computing paradigm to model the rainfall-runoff process for forecasting the river flow of Kolar basin in India. The neurofuzzy computing technique is a combination of a fuzzy computing approach and an artificial neural network technique. Parameter optimization in the model was performed by a combination of backpropagation and least squares error methods. Performance of the neurofuzzy model was comprehensively evaluated with that of independent fuzzy and neural network models developed for the same basin. The values of three performance evaluation criteria, namely, the coefficient of efficiency, the root-mean-square error, and the coefficient of correlation, were found to be very good and consistent for flows forecasted 1 hour in advance by the neurofuzzy model. The value of the relative error in peak flow prediction was within reasonable limits for the neurofuzzy model. The neurofuzzy model forecasted 47.95% of the total number of flow values 1 hour in advance with less than 1% relative error, while for the neural network and fuzzy models the corresponding values were 36.96 and 18.89%, respectively. The forecasts by the neurofuzzy model at higher lead times (up to 6 hours) are found to be better than those from the neural network model or the fuzzy model, implying that the neurofuzzy model seems to be well suited to exploit the information to model the nonlinear dynamics of the rainfall-runoff process.

Nayak, P. C.; Sudheer, K. P.; Rangan, D. M.; Ramasastri, K. S.

2005-04-01

93

Application of mathematical models for flood forecasting in Sri Lanka  

Microsoft Academic Search

With the introduction of micro computers, the application of mathematical models in water resources planning and forecasting became increasingly popular during the last decade in Sri Lanka. The selection of a particular model for a specific river basin was done as far as possible on the basis of an objective criteria to judge the model efficiency. Among the black box

G. T. DHARMASENA

1997-01-01

94

Application of stochastic differential equation to reservoir routing with probabilistic inflow forecasting and flood control risk analysis  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Real-time flood control of a reservoir system involves various uncertainties including the prediction uncertainty of inflow flood events, uncertainties in boundary conditions such as the reservoir storage curve, release capacity curve, and the uncertainty within the reservoir flood routing model itself. In this study, the hydrologic uncertainty processor (PUB) under the framework of Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) is adopted to quantify the uncertainty of flood prediction, providing with the probabilistic forecasting for real-time flood events. A Gaussian form of distribution is used to describe uncertainty of reservoir storage or release capacity; parameters of the distribution are estimated by historical measurements. In order to route the flood hydrograph with probability feature, i.e. a probabilistic forecasting flood event, stochastic differential equation (SDE) is introduced to build the reservoir flood routing model. By introducing a Gaussian white noise term, the traditional reservoir's water balance equation is altered to a kind of Ito stochastic differential equation. The solutions of Ito equation provide a probabilistic form of forecasting for reservoir stage process and outflow hydrograph. Both the analytical and numerical approaches are applied to solve the Ito stochastic differential equation, and their applicability for reservoir stochastic flood routing is testified. By assigning a specific flood limit level or reservoir beginning water level on which a real-time flood event is started to route through using the SDE, a corresponding probabilistic reservoir stage processes can be forecasted. For a designed control water level (DCWL), the risk rate or the largest probability that the forecasted reservoir stage excesses DCWL can be computed. Setting a series of flood limit levels, for a forecasted probabilistic inflow hydrograph, there obtains the corresponding reservoir stage processes, and in turn the risk rate of flood protection. By checking if the risk rate is less than a preassigned acceptable risk or flood control standard, a reasonable flood limit water level is determined to raise the utilization ratio of flood resources. As an example, the approach is applied to Dahuofang reservoir, which is located on Hun river in Northeast China. A typical flood event occurred in the flooding season of 2005 is analyzed to demonstrate the application of proposed procedure.

Liang, Z.; Hu, Y.; Wang, J.

2012-04-01

95

Interpolation of observed rainfall fields for flood forecasting in data poor areas  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Observed rainfall fields constitute a crucial input for operational flood forecasting, providing boundary conditions to hydrological models for prediction of flows and levels in relevant forecast points. Such observed fields are derived through interpolation from available observed data from rain gauges. The reliability of the derived rainfall field depends on the density of the gauge network within the basin, as well as on the variability of the rainfall itself, and the interpolation method. In this paper interpolation methods to estimate rainfall fields under data- poor environments are researched, with the derived rainfall fields being used in operational flood warnings. Methods are applied in a small catchment in Bogotá, Colombia. This catchment has a complex climatology, which is strongly influenced by the inter-tropical convergence zone and orographic enhancement. As is common in such catchments in developing countries, the rainfall gauging network is sparse, while the need for reliable rainfall in flood forecasting is high. The extensive high flood risk zones in the lower areas of the catchment, where urbanization processes are characterized by unplanned occupation of areas close to rivers, is common in developing countries. Results show the sensitivity of interpolated rainfall fields to the interpolation methods chosen, and the importance of the use of indicator variables for improving the spatial distribution of interpolated rainfall. The value of these methods in establishing optimal new gauging sites for augmenting the sparse gauge network is demonstrated.

Rogelis Prada, M. C.; Werner, M. G. F.

2010-09-01

96

Real-Time Flood Stage Forecasting Using Support Vector Regression  

Microsoft Academic Search

The support vector machine, a novel artificial intelligence-based approach developed from statistical learning theory, is\\u000a used in this work to develop a real-time stage forecasting model. The orders of the input variables are determined by applying\\u000a the hydrological concept of the time of response, and a two-step grid search method is used to find the optimal parameters,\\u000a and thus overcome

P.-S. Yu; S.-T. Chen; I. F. Chang

97

Real-Time Flood Forecasting on the Blue Nile River  

Microsoft Academic Search

The SMAR-AR Model is used for real-time riverflow forecasting on the Blue Nile catchment at Eldeim Station, which is located near the Sudanese-Ethiopian border. The SMAR-AR model is calibrated using data for the period 1992–1994 and verified by the data for the year 1995. The results of the SMAR-AR model are compared with those of the SAMFIL model that is

Asaad Y. Shamseldin; Gamal M. Abdo; Abderhman S. Elzein

1999-01-01

98

National flood modelling for insurance purposes: using IFSAR for flood risk estimation in Europe  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flood risk poses a major problem for insurers and governments who ultimately pay the financial costs of losses resulting from flood events. Insurers therefore face the problem of how to assess their exposure to floods and how best to price the flood element of their insurance products. This paper looks at the insurance implications of recent flood events in Europe and the issues surrounding insurance of potential future events. In particular, the paper will focus on the flood risk information needs of insurers and how these can be met. The data requirements of national and regional flood models are addressed in the context of the accuracy of available data on property location. Terrain information is generally the weakest component of sophisticated flood models. Therefore, various sources of digital terrain models (DTM) are examined and discussed with consideration of the vertical and horizontal accuracy, the speed of acquisition, the costs and the comprehensiveness of the data. The NEXTMap DTM series from Intermap Technologies Inc. is proposed as a suitable DTM for flood risk identification and mapping, following its use in the UK. Its acquisition, processing and application is described and future plans discussed. Examples are included of the application of flood information to insurance property information and the potential benefits and advantages of using suitable hazard modelling data sources are detailed.

Sanders, R.; Shaw, F.; Mackay, H.; Galy, H.; Foote, M.

2005-10-01

99

Fuzzy computing based rainfall-runoff model for real time flood forecasting  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

This paper analyses the skills of fuzzy computing based rainfall-runoff model in real time flood forecasting. The potential of fuzzy computing has been demonstrated by developing a model for forecasting the river flow of Narmada basin in India. This work has demonstrated that fuzzy models can take advantage of their capability to simulate the unknown relationships between a set of relevant hydrological data such as rainfall and river flow. Many combinations of input variables were presented to the model with varying structures as a sensitivity study to verify the conclusions about the coherence between precipitation, upstream runoff and total watershed runoff. The most appropriate set of input variables was determined, and the study suggests that the river flow of Narmada behaves more like an autoregressive process. As the precipitation is weighted only a little by the model, the last time-steps of measured runoff are dominating the forecast. Thus a forecast based on expected rainfall becomes very inaccurate. Although good results for one-step-ahead forecasts are received, the accuracy deteriorates as the lead time increases. Using the one-step-ahead forecast model recursively to predict flows at higher lead time, however, produces better results as opposed to different independent fuzzy models to forecast flows at various lead times.

Nayak, P. C.; Sudheer, K. P.; Ramasastri, K. S.

2005-03-01

100

Flood forecast in complex orography coupling distributed hydro-meteorological models and in-situ and remote sensing data  

Microsoft Academic Search

Summary  A flood forecast chain, developed at the Centre of Excellence for Remote Sensing and Hydro-Meteorology (CETEMPS) and based\\u000a on coupled mesoscale atmospheric and a newly developed distributed hydrological model with in-situ and remote sensing data\\u000a integration, is illustrated. The focus is on small-catchment flood forecast in complex topography in Central Italy, but the\\u000a developed modelling and processing integrated tools may

M. Verdecchia; E. Coppola; C. Faccani; R. Ferretti; A. Memmo; M. Montopoli; G. Rivolta; T. Paolucci; E. Picciotti; A. Santacasa; B. Tomassetti; G. Visconti; F. S. Marzano

2008-01-01

101

A fuzzy inference method based on association rule analysis with application to river flood forecasting.  

PubMed

In this paper, a computationally efficient version of the widely used Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy reasoning method is proposed, and applied to river flood forecasting. It is well known that the number of fuzzy rules of traditional fuzzy reasoning methods exponentially increases as the number of input parameters increases, often causing prohibitive computational burden. The proposed method greatly reduces the number of fuzzy rules by making use of the association rule analysis on historical data, and therefore achieves computational efficiency for the cases of a large number of input parameters. In the end, we apply this new method to a case study of river flood forecasting, which demonstrates that the proposed fuzzy reasoning engine can achieve better prediction accuracy than the widely used Muskingum-Cunge scheme. PMID:22949238

Zhang, Chi; Wang, Yilun; Zhang, Lili; Zhou, Huicheng

2012-01-01

102

Towards a flash flood early warning system through hydrological simulation of probabilistic ensemble forecasts  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In this work we test a flash flood early warning system based on state-of-the-art probabilistic weather forecasting input data. We make use of the Limited area Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS) provided by the Consortium for Small scale Modeling (COSMO). COSMO-LEPS ensembles are fed into a distributed hydrological model, to obtain discharge estimates. Likewise, discharge climatology is created from a continuous meteorological dataset based on 30-year COSMO-LEPS hindcasts, and used as reference to detect threshold exceedance in the operational ensemble hydrographs. Coherent reference climatology is particularly useful for flash flood events, as they often take place in small watersheds, where no gauge measurements are available. The concept of persistence of meteorological forecasts is also tested as a method to improve the detection of severe events. Starting from the operational 5-km simulation at the European scale, when a signal for possible flash flooding is detected a regional catchment-scale simulation is activated on a finer spatial scale (1 km grid). Two targeted analyses are carried out to investigate: a) an automatic rule to activate the fine-scale analysis, and b) the influence of initial conditions on the estimated hydrographs, and in turn on threshold exceedances. The Gardon d'Anduze catchment, in the south of France, is chosen as a case study. A number of simulations are performed and results are analyzed and discussed. Our findings show that flash floods can sometimes be detected with a considerable lead time, especially if compared to the response time of the catchments where these phenomena take place. However, the amount of uncertainty related to the forecast is considerable, therefore the choice of appropriate thresholds for flash flood detection is of crucial importance and should account for the maximum acceptable number of either false alarms and undetected events.

Alfieri, Lorenzo; Thielen Del Pozo, Jutta

2010-05-01

103

A distributed hydrological model for drought and flood forecast in the upper Yangtze River basin  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The Yangzte River (also called Changjiang in Chinese) is the largest river basin in China, which has frequent flood and drought. Building on the physically-based description of hydrological processes, a distributed model has been established in the upper Yangtze River for drought and flood forecast have been addressed in this study. For assessing water resources and drought, a large scale distributed hydrological model has been chosen for the upper Yangtze River which has about 1 million km2 area. In this model, the whole area is divided into a discrete grid system of 10km size, and each grid is represented by a number of geometrically-symmetrical hillslopes. Hydrological simulation has been carried out during 1961~2000, the simulated river discharges, soil moisture and evapotranspiration provided an inside investigation into water resources in the study basin. Results showed that the ratio of seasonal runoff to annual one has a significant increasing trend in summer in the eastern Sichuan basin and the Three Gorges region in the 1990s, but a decreasing trend in autumn. This implies an increasing flood risk in summer and water shortage in autumn. Based on the results of hydrological simulation, a new monthly drought index, GBHM-PDSI, was proposed based on the Palmer Drought Severity Index. It was found that the new drought index has advantages for describing the temporal change of drought severity and the spatial variation. In order to reduce the uncertainties of real time flood forecast in the Three Gorges region, the radar rainfall data has been used together with the smaller scale (1km grid size) distributed hydrological model. Results showed, by means of distributed model combining with radar rainfall data, it could capture adequately the spatial variation of rainstorm, and provide better flood forecast at real time.

Jijun, X.; Dawen, Y.; Zhidong, L.; Wei, H.

2007-12-01

104

Use of weather radar for flood forecasting in the Sieve River Basin: A sensitivity analysis  

SciTech Connect

Weather radar, in combination with a distributed rainfall-runoff model, promises to significantly improve real-time flood forecasting. This paper investigates the value of radar-derived precipitation in forecasting streamflow in the Sieve River basin, near Florence, Italy. The basin is modeled with a distributed rainfall-runoff model that exploits topographic information available from digital elevation maps. The sensitivity of the flood forecast to various properties of the radar-derived rainfall is studied. It is found that use of the proper radar reflectivity-rainfall intensity (Z-R) relationship is the most crucial factor in obtaining correct flood hydrographs. Errors resulting from spatially averaging radar rainfall are acceptable, but the use of discrete point information (i.e. raingage) can lead to serious problems. Reducing the resolution of the 5-min radar signal by temporally averaging over 15 and 30 min does not lead to major errors. Using 3-bit radar data (rather than the usual 8-bit data) to represent intensities results in significant operational savings without serious problems in hydrograph accuracy. 24 refs., 28 figs., 2 tabs.

Pessoa, M.L.; Bras, R.L.; Williams, E.R. (Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, Cambridge (United States))

1993-03-01

105

Development of web-based services for a novel ensemble flood forecasting and risk assessment system  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flooding is a wide spread and devastating natural disaster worldwide. Floods that took place in the last decade in China were ranked the worst amongst recorded floods worldwide in terms of the number of human fatalities and economic losses (Munich Re-Insurance). Rapid economic development and population expansion into low lying flood plains has worsened the situation. Current conventional flood prediction systems in China are neither suited to the perceptible climate variability nor the rapid pace of urbanization sweeping the country. Flood prediction, from short-term (a few hours) to medium-term (a few days), needs to be revisited and adapted to changing socio-economic and hydro-climatic realities. The latest technology requires implementation of multiple numerical weather prediction systems. The availability of twelve global ensemble weather prediction systems through the ‘THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble’ (TIGGE) offers a good opportunity for an effective state-of-the-art early forecasting system. A prototype of a Novel Flood Early Warning System (NEWS) using the TIGGE database is tested in the Huai River basin in east-central China. It is the first early flood warning system in China that uses the massive TIGGE database cascaded with river catchment models, the Xinanjiang hydrologic model and a 1-D hydraulic model, to predict river discharge and flood inundation. The NEWS algorithm is also designed to provide web-based services to a broad spectrum of end-users. The latter presents challenges as both databases and proprietary codes reside in different locations and converge at dissimilar times. NEWS will thus make use of a ready-to-run grid system that makes distributed computing and data resources available in a seamless and secure way. An ability to run or function on different operating systems and provide an interface or front that is accessible to broad spectrum of end-users is additional requirement. The aim is to achieve robust interoperability through strong security and workflow capabilities. A physical network diagram and a work flow scheme of all the models, codes and databases used to achieve the NEWS algorithm are presented. They constitute a first step in the development of a platform for providing real time flood forecasting services on the web to mitigate 21st century weather phenomena.

He, Y.; Manful, D. Y.; Cloke, H. L.; Wetterhall, F.; Li, Z.; Bao, H.; Pappenberger, F.; Wesner, S.; Schubert, L.; Yang, L.; Hu, Y.

2009-12-01

106

Development of web-based services for an ensemble flood forecasting and risk assessment system  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flooding is a wide spread and devastating natural disaster worldwide. Floods that took place in the last decade in China were ranked the worst amongst recorded floods worldwide in terms of the number of human fatalities and economic losses (Munich Re-Insurance). Rapid economic development and population expansion into low lying flood plains has worsened the situation. Current conventional flood prediction systems in China are neither suited to the perceptible climate variability nor the rapid pace of urbanization sweeping the country. Flood prediction, from short-term (a few hours) to medium-term (a few days), needs to be revisited and adapted to changing socio-economic and hydro-climatic realities. The latest technology requires implementation of multiple numerical weather prediction systems. The availability of twelve global ensemble weather prediction systems through the ‘THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble' (TIGGE) offers a good opportunity for an effective state-of-the-art early forecasting system. A prototype of a Novel Flood Early Warning System (NEWS) using the TIGGE database is tested in the Huai River basin in east-central China. It is the first early flood warning system in China that uses the massive TIGGE database cascaded with river catchment models, the Xinanjiang hydrologic model and a 1-D hydraulic model, to predict river discharge and flood inundation. The NEWS algorithm is also designed to provide web-based services to a broad spectrum of end-users. The latter presents challenges as both databases and proprietary codes reside in different locations and converge at dissimilar times. NEWS will thus make use of a ready-to-run grid system that makes distributed computing and data resources available in a seamless and secure way. An ability to run or function on different operating systems and provide an interface or front that is accessible to broad spectrum of end-users is additional requirement. The aim is to achieve robust interoperability through strong security and workflow capabilities. A physical network diagram and a work flow scheme of all the models, codes and databases used to achieve the NEWS algorithm are presented. They constitute a first step in the development of a platform for providing real time flood forecasting services on the web to mitigate 21st century weather phenomena.

Yaw Manful, Desmond; He, Yi; Cloke, Hannah; Pappenberger, Florian; Li, Zhijia; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Huang, Yingchun; Hu, Yuzhong

2010-05-01

107

Towards spatially distributed flood forecasts in flash flood prone areas: application to the supervision of a road network in the South of France  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Accurate flood forecasts are crucial for an efficient flood event management. Until now, hydro-meteorological forecasts have been mainly used for early-warnings in France (Meteorological and flood vigilance maps) or over the world (Flash-flood guidances). These forecasts are generally limited to the main streams covered by the flood forecasting services or to specific watersheds with particular assets like check dams which are in most cases well gauged river sections, leaving aside large parts of the territory. A distributed hydro-meteorological forecasting approach will be presented, able to take advantage of the high spatial and temporal resolution rainfall estimates that are now available to provide information at ungauged sites. The proposed system aiming at detecting road inundation risks had been initially developed and tested in areas of limited size. Its extension to a whole region (the Gard region in the South of France) will be presented, including over 2000 crossing points between rivers and roads and its validation against a large data set of actually reported road inundations observed during recent flash-flood events. These first validation results appear promising. Such a tool would provide the necessary information for flood event management services to identify the areas at risk and to take the appropriate safety and rescue measures: pre-positioning of rescue means, stopping of the traffic on exposed roads, determination of safe accesses or evacuation routes. Moreover, beyond the specific application to the supervision of a road network, this work provides also results concerning the performances of hydro-meteorological forecasts for ungauged headwaters.

Naulin, Jean-Philippe; Payrastre, Olivier; Gaume, Eric; Delrieu, Guy

2013-04-01

108

Application of tank, NAM, ARMA and neural network models to flood forecasting  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Two lumped conceptual hydrological models, namely tank and NAM and a neural network model are applied to flood forecasting in two river basins in Thailand, the Wichianburi on the Pasak River and the Tha Wang Pha on the Nan River using the flood forecasting procedure developed in this study. The tank and NAM models were calibrated and verified and found to give similar results. The results were found to improve significantly by coupling stochastic and deterministic models (tank and NAM) for updating forecast output. The neural network (NN) model was compared with the tank and NAM models. The NN model does not require knowledge of catchment characteristics and internal hydrological processes. The training process or calibration is relatively simple and less time consuming compared with the extensive calibration effort required by the tank and NAM models. The NN model gives good forecasts based on available rainfall, evaporation and runoff data. The black-box nature of the NN model and the need for selecting parameters based on trial and error or rule-of-thumb, however, characterizes its inherent weakness. The performance of the three models was evaluated statistically.

Tingsanchali, Tawatchai; Gautam, Mahesh Raj

2000-10-01

109

A search for model parsimony in a real time flood forecasting system  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

As regards the hydrological simulation of flood events, a physically based distributed approach is the most appealing one, especially in those areas where the spatial variability of the soil hydraulic properties as well as of the meteorological forcing cannot be left apart, such as in mountainous regions. On the other hand, dealing with real time flood forecasting systems, less detailed models requiring a minor number of parameters may be more convenient, reducing both the computational costs and the calibration uncertainty. In fact in this case a precise quantification of the entire hydrograph pattern is not necessary, while the expected output of a real time flood forecasting system is just an estimate of the peak discharge, the time to peak and in some cases the flood volume. In this perspective a parsimonious model has to be found in order to increase the efficiency of the system. A suitable case study was identified in the northern Apennines: the Taro river is a right tributary to the Po river and drains about 2000 km2 of mountains, hills and floodplain, equally distributed . The hydrometeorological monitoring of this medium sized watershed is managed by ARPA Emilia Romagna through a dense network of uptodate gauges (about 30 rain gauges and 10 hydrometers). Detailed maps of the surface elevation, land use and soil texture characteristics are also available. Five flood events were recorded by the new monitoring network in the years 2003-2007: during these events the peak discharge was higher than 1000 m3/s, which is actually quite a high value when compared to the mean discharge rate of about 30 m3/s. The rainfall spatial patterns of such storms were analyzed in previous works by means of geostatistical tools and a typical semivariogram was defined, with the aim of establishing a typical storm structure leading to flood events in the Taro river. The available information was implemented into a distributed flood event model with a spatial resolution of 90m; then the hydrologic detail was reduced by progressively assuming a uniform rainfall field and constant soil properties. A semi-distributed model, obtained by subdividing the catchment into three sub-catchment, and a lumped model were also applied to simulate the selected flood events. Errors were quantified in terms of the peak discharge ratio, the flood volume and the time to peak by comparing the simulated hydrographs to the observed ones.

Grossi, G.; Balistrocchi, M.

2009-04-01

110

Real-Time Flood Forecasting System Using Channel Flow Routing Model with Updating by Particle Filter  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A real-time flood forecasting system using channel flow routing model was developed for runoff forecasting at water gauged and ungaged points along river channels. The system is based on a flood runoff model composed of upstream part models, tributary part models and downstream part models. The upstream part models and tributary part models are lumped rainfall-runoff models, and the downstream part models consist of a lumped rainfall-runoff model for hillslopes adjacent to a river channel and a kinematic flow routing model for a river channel. The flow forecast of this model is updated by Particle filtering of the downstream part model as well as by the extended Kalman filtering of the upstream part model and the tributary part models. The Particle filtering is a simple and powerful updating algorithm for non-linear and non-gaussian system, so that it can be easily applied to the downstream part model without complicated linearization. The presented flood runoff model has an advantage in simlecity of updating procedure to the grid-based distributed models, which is because of less number of state variables. This system was applied to the Gono-kawa River Basin in Japan, and flood forecasting accuracy of the system with both Particle filtering and extended Kalman filtering and that of the system with only extended Kalman filtering were compared. In this study, water gauging stations in the objective basin were divided into two types of stations, that is, reference stations and verification stations. Reference stations ware regarded as ordinary water gauging stations and observed data at these stations are used for calibration and updating of the model. Verification stations ware considered as ungaged or arbitrary points and observed data at these stations are used not for calibration nor updating but for only evaluation of forecasting accuracy. The result confirms that Particle filtering of the downstream part model improves forecasting accuracy of runoff at verification stations as well as at reference stations, although observed data at verification stations were not used for updating of the model.

Kudo, R.; Chikamori, H.; Nagai, A.

2008-12-01

111

The potential of radar-based ensemble forecasts for flash-flood early warning in the southern Swiss Alps  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

This study explores the limits of radar-based forecasting for hydrological runoff prediction. Two novel radar-based ensemble forecasting chains for flash-flood early warning are investigated in three catchments in the southern Swiss Alps and set in relation to deterministic discharge forecasts for the same catchments. The first radar-based ensemble forecasting chain is driven by NORA (Nowcasting of Orographic Rainfall by means of Analogues), an analogue-based heuristic nowcasting system to predict orographic rainfall for the following eight hours. The second ensemble forecasting system evaluated is REAL-C2, where the numerical weather prediction COSMO-2 is initialised with 25 different initial conditions derived from a four-day nowcast with the radar ensemble REAL. Additionally, three deterministic forecasting chains were analysed. The performance of these five flash-flood forecasting systems was analysed for 1389 h between June 2007 and December 2010 for which NORA forecasts were issued, due to the presence of orographic forcing. A clear preference was found for the ensemble approach. Discharge forecasts perform better when forced by NORA and REAL-C2 rather then by deterministic weather radar data. Moreover, it was observed that using an ensemble of initial conditions at the forecast initialisation, as in REAL-C2, significantly improved the forecast skill. These forecasts also perform better then forecasts forced by ensemble rainfall forecasts (NORA) initialised form a single initial condition of the hydrological model. Thus the best results were obtained with the REAL-C2 forecasting chain. However, for regions where REAL cannot be produced, NORA might be an option for forecasting events triggered by orographic precipitation.

Liechti, K.; Panziera, L.; Germann, U.; Zappa, M.

2013-10-01

112

Visualising probabilistic flood forecast information: expert preferences and perceptions of best practice in uncertainty communication  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The aim of this paper is to understand and to contribute to improved communication of the probabilistic flood forecasts generated by Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems (HEPS) with particular focus on the inter expert communication. Different users are likely to require different kinds of information from HEPS and thus different visualizations. The perceptions of this expert group are important both because they are the designers and primary users of existing HEPS. Nevertheless, they have sometimes resisted the release of uncertainty information to the general public because of doubts about whether it can be successfully communicated in ways that would be readily understood to non-experts. In this paper we explore the strengths and weaknesses of existing HEPS visualization methods and thereby formulate some wider recommendations about best practice for HEPS visualization and communication. We suggest that specific training on probabilistic forecasting would foster use of probabilistic forecasts with a wider range of applications. The result of a case study exercise showed that there is no overarching agreement between experts on how to display probabilistic forecasts and what they consider essential information that should accompany plots and diagrams. In this paper we propose a list of minimum properties that, if consistently displayed with probabilistic forecasts, would make the products more easily understandable.

Pappenberger, F.; Stephens, E. M.; Thielen, J.; Salomon, P.; Demeritt, D.; van Andel, S.; Wetterhall, F.; Alfieri, L.

2011-12-01

113

Correction of upstream flow and hydraulic state with data assimilation in the context of flood forecasting  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The present study describes the assimilation of river water level observations and the resulting improvement of the river flood forecast. The BLUE algorithm was built on top of the one-dimensional hydraulics model MASCARET. The assimilation algorithm folds in two steps: the first one is based on the assumption that the upstream flow can be adjusted using a three-parameter correction, the second one consists in directly correcting the hydraulic state. This procedure is applied on a four-day sliding window over the whole flood event. The background error covariances for water level and discharge are represented with asymmetric correlation functions where the upstream correlation length is bigger than the downstream correlation length. This approach is motivated by the implementation of a Kalman Filter algorithm on top of an advection-diffusion toy model. The assimilation study with MASCARET is carried out on the Adour and the Marne Vallage (France) catchments. The correction of the upstream flow as well as the control of the hydraulic state along the flood event leads to a significant improvement of the water level and discharge in analysis and forecast modes.

Ricci, S.; Piacentini, A.; Thual, O.; Le Pape, E.; Jonville, G.

2010-11-01

114

Data assimilation method for real-time flash flood forecasting using a physically based distributed model  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The MARINE model (Roux et al, 2011) is a physically based distributed model dedicated to real time flash flood forecasting on small to medium catchments. The infiltration capacity is evaluated by the Green and Ampt equation and the surface runoff calculation is divided into two parts: the land surface flow and the flow in the drainage network both based on kinematic wave hypothesis. In order to take into account rainfall spatial-temporal variability as well as the various behaviours of soil types among the catchment, the model is spatially distributed, which can also help to understand the flood driving processes. The model integrates remote sensing data such as the land coverage map with spatial resolution adapted to hydrological scales. Minimal data requirements for the model are: the Digital Elevation Model describing catchment topography and the location and description of the drainage network. Moreover some parameters are not directly measurable and need to be calibrated. Most of the sources of uncertainties can be propagated thanks to variational method (Castaings et al, 2009) and finally help to determine time dependent uncertainty intervals. This study also investigates the methodology developed for real-time flash flood forecasting using the MARINE model and data assimilation techniques. According to prior sensitivity analyses and calibrations, parameters values were determined as constants or initial guess. Then a data assimilation method called the adjoint state method is used to update some of the most sensitive parameters to improve accuracy of discharges predictions. The forecast errors are evaluated as a function of lead time and discussed from an operational point of view. Multiple strategies in term of updatable parameters set, length of time window, parameters bounds and observation threshold used to trigger the assimilation method are discussed regarding accuracy, robustness and real-time feasibility.

Larnier, K.; Roux, H.; Garambois, P.; Dartus, D.

2012-04-01

115

Forecasting Solar Radiation -- Preliminary Evaluation of an Approach Based upon the National Forecast Database  

SciTech Connect

Our objective is to develop, and undertake a preliminary evaluation of a simple solar radiation forecast model using sky cover predictions from the National Digital Forecast Database as an input. This report describes the model and presents a limited evaluation of its performance against ground-measured and satellite-derived irradiances in Albany, New York.

Perez, R.; Moore, K.; Wilcox, S.; Renne, D.; Zelenka, A.

2007-01-01

116

Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Flood Insurance Program: Call for Issues Status Report.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

For decades the national response to flood disasters was generally limited to constructing flood control works, such as dams, levees, and seawalls, and providing disaster relief to flood victims. This approach did not reduce losses or discourage unwise de...

2000-01-01

117

Flood Hazard Evaluation for Divide and Wild Creeks, Glacier National Park.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

Glacier National Park (GLAC) has experienced recurring flooding problems in developments located along Divide and Wild Creeks near the town of St. Mary, Montana. Park facilities along Divide Creek have flooded twice and have been threatened by flooding on...

G. M. Smillie D. Ellerbroek

1991-01-01

118

Flood forecasting for the Ukrainian part of the Tisza Basin: linking with the numerical weather forecasts, comparative testing of distributed and lumped models  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The implementation of new flood forecasting systems for the Ukrainian part of the Tisza basin has started last years by the customisation of Mike-11 model for the Uzh River and Latoritsa River (part of the Bodrog Catchment) in the frame of the joint project with the 'DHI Water&Environment'. The calibration and testing of the lumped parameter model NAM was provided in collaboration with the Ukrainian Hydrometcenter and the Uzhgorod Hydrometcenter for the period 1998-2000, which includes two hazardous floods of years 1998 and 2000. The tuning of hydrodynamical module of Mike-11 is provided in collaboration with the Transcarpathian Branch of State Committee of Water Management (SCWM), Uzhgorod. The information about existing and designed hydraulic structures in the river channels, -bridges, polders, dikes, pump stations is used for the model tuning. The flood forecasting system for Uzh River and Latoritsa River based on Mike -11 is in pre-operational use in Uzhgorod Hydromet and SCUWM offices. The advance time of the flood forecasts can be increased by the real-time assimilation of the precipitation forecasts of a Numerical Weather Predictions (NWP) model. The Penn State University /UCAR NWP model MM5 was customized for the Ukrainian territory in resolution 30*30 km on the basis of the rare gridded forecasting data from the German meteorological center Offenbach, assimilating the data from the Ukrainian meteorological stations, processed by the Ukrainian Hydrometcenter. The region of the Uzh and Latoritsa watersheds was simulated by MM5 in the resolution 10*10 km for the linking with the Mike -11 (NAM). The preliminary results of flood forecasting on the basis of the meteorological forecasts are analyzed. For further improvement of the flood forecasting systems the implementations of GIS based distributed models are planned. Two types of distributed models based upon physically meaningful parameters are comparatively studied- 2-D finite- difference model RUNTOX (Kivva, Zheleznyak, 2001) based on Saint Venant equations and TOPographic Kinematic Approximation and Integration - TOPKAPI model (Todini, 1995,2000). The new computer code was developed, based on the TOPKAPI equations. Both models was initially tested for the small watersheds ( from 0.085 km2 to 0.40 km2 ) of the Boguslav Field Experimental Laboratory of the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute. The comparison with the experimental data shows that TOPKAPI produces the reasonable results for the different floods without special tuning of the model parameters. The study of the applicability of TOPKAPI for the sub-watersheds of Uzh and Latoritsa rivers is going on.

Belov, S.; Donchytz, G.; Kivva, S.; Kuschan, A.; Zheleznyak, M.

2003-04-01

119

Floods  

MedlinePLUS

... in to NOAA Weather Radio, commercial radio or television for information. Flash Flood Watch - Flash flooding is ... listen to NOAA Weather Radio, commercial radio or television for information. Flood Warning - Flooding is occurring or ...

120

FUNDAMENTAL STUDY ON REAL-TIME FLOOD FORECASTING METHOD FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN URBAN DRAINAGE AREAS  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Recently, locally heavy rainfall occurs frequently at highly urbanized area, and causes serious personal accidents, so importance of flood forecasting system is growing in order to reduce damage of inundation. However, flood forecasting that secured lead-time for evacuation is extremely difficult, because the rainfall flows out rapidly. In this study, the numerical simulation model that can finely express inundation mechanism of urban drainage areas was applied with the most recent available data and analysis tool. The influence of the factor (i.e. sewer system, overland and rainfall information) which affected inundation mechanism was evaluated through the sensibility analysis with this model, and evaluation results show some requirements of model condition and information on time and space resolution of real-time flood forecasting.

Kimura, Makoto; Kido, Yoshinobu; Nakakita, Eiichi

121

Verification of Severe Local Storms Forecasts Issued by the National Severe Storms Forecast Center: 1992.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The SELS Unit of the National Severe Storms Forecast Center routinely issues convective outlooks and severe local storm watches to delineate areas that are favorable for development of severe local storms. The report summarizes verification of those forec...

R. W. Anthony

1993-01-01

122

Verification of Severe Local Storms Forecasts Issued by the National Severe Storms Forecast Center: 1993.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The SELS Unit of the National Severe Storms Forecast Center routinely issues convective outlooks and severe local storm watches to delineate areas that are favorable for development of severe local storms. During 1993 the SELS Unit issued 957 severe local...

R. W. Anthony

1994-01-01

123

Flood forecasting for the Ukrainian part of the Tisza Basin: linking with the numerical weather forecasts, comparative testing of distributed and lumped models  

Microsoft Academic Search

The implementation of new flood forecasting systems for the Ukrainian part of the Tisza basin has started last years by the customisation of Mike-11 model for the Uzh River and Latoritsa River (part of the Bodrog Catchment) in the frame of the joint project with the 'DHI Water&Environment'. The calibration and testing of the lumped parameter model NAM was provided

S. Belov; G. Donchytz; S. Kivva; A. Kuschan; M. Zheleznyak

2003-01-01

124

Uncertainty of high-resolution forecasting of a flood event near Venice  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heavy precipitation due to the development of a mesoscale convective system (MCS) affected the area of the Venice Lagoon during the early morning of 26 September 2007. As a consequence of the impressive amount of rainfall (more than 300 mm in less than 12 hours), flooding was reported. The quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) provided by the high-resolution, convection-resolving model MOLOCH, operated daily at ISAC-CNR, allowed a suitable warning at least 36 hours in advance. However, remarkable sensitivity in terms of QPF to the specification of the initial and boundary conditions, as well as to different model configurations, was detected. Although in principle precipitation events characterized by deep convective activity are expected to have low predictability, the large scale flow in which the MCS development was embedded favoured a relatively small growth of the forecast error. Moreover, the analysis of the precipitation patterns and of other meteorological fields provided by several additional simulations allowed to identify the relevant mechanisms responsible for the flood and to capture the main characteristics of the MCS

Davolio, S.; Drofa, O.; Buzzi, A.

2009-04-01

125

Assessment of a fuzzy based flood forecasting system optimized by simulated annealing  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flood forecasting is an important tool to mitigate harmful effects of floods. Among the many different approaches for forecasting, Fuzzy Logic (FL) is one that has been increasingly applied over the last decade. This method is principally based on the linguistic description of Rule Systems (RS). A RS is a specific combination of membership functions of input and output variables. Setting up the RS can be implemented either automatically or manually, the choice of which can strongly influence the resulting rule systems. It is therefore the objective of this study to assess the influence that the parameters of an automated rule generation based on Simulated Annealing (SA) have on the resulting RS. The study area is the upper Main River area, located in the northern part of Bavaria, Germany. The data of Mainleus gauge with area of 1165 km2 was investigated in the whole period of 1984 and 2004. The highest observed discharge of 357 m3/s was recorded in 1995. The input arguments of the FL model were daily precipitation, forecasted precipitation, antecedent precipitation index, temperature and melting rate. The FL model of this study has one output variable, daily discharge and was independently set up for three different forecast lead times, namely one-, two- and three-days ahead. In total, each RS comprised 55 rules and all input and output variables were represented by five sets of trapezoidal and triangular fuzzy numbers. Simulated Annealing, which is a converging optimum solution algorithm, was applied for optimizing the RSs in this study. In order to assess the influence of its parameters (number of iterations, temperature decrease rate, initial value for generating random numbers, initial temperature and two other parameters), they were individually varied while keeping the others fixed. With each of the resulting parameter sets, a full-automatic SA was applied to gain optimized fuzzy rule systems for flood forecasting. Evaluation of the performance of the resulting fuzzy rule forecasting systems (with the intention to draw conclusions on the best SA parameters) was carried out in two steps: a) Evaluation of objective functions such as Nash-Sutcliffe and RMSE for all RSs. b) Manual evaluation of the preselected results from the first step. The evaluation was based on visual inspection (scatter plots, time-series and Degree Of Fulfilment (DOF) graphs) as well as logical interpretation of the rule systems. Comparing the results showed that there were SA parameter sets which lead to forecast systems of equally high quality (with respect to objective criteria such as Nash-Sutcliffe), however the underlying rule systems significantly varied from each other. Therefore, manual inspection played a key role in finding the overall best results. In the presentation, the procedure of preparing different sets of SA parameters, the evaluation process of different results and the performance of the optimal RS will be explained and presented by an example.

Reyhani Masouleh, Aida; Pakosch, Sabine; Disse, Markus

2010-05-01

126

A flood routing Muskingum type simulation and forecasting model based on level data alone  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

While the use of remote hydrometers for measuring the level in water courses is both economical and widespread, the same cannot be said for cross section and channel profile measurements and, even less, for rating curves at the measuring cross sections, all of which are more often than not incomplete, out of date, and unreliable. The mass of data involved in level measurements alone induces a degree of perplexity in those who try to use them, for example, for flood event simulations or the construction of forecasting models which are not purely statistical. This paper proposes a method which uses recorded level data alone to construct a simulation model and a forecasting model, both of them characterized by an extremely simple structure that can be used on any pocket calculator. These models, referring to a river reach bounded by two measuring sections, furnish the downstream levels, where the upstream levels are known, and the downstream level at time t + ?t*, where the upstream and downstream levels are known at time t, respectively. The numerical applications performed show that while the simulation model is somewhat penalized by the simplifications adopted, giving not consistently satisfactory results on validation, the forecasting model generated good results in all the cases examined and seems reliable.

Franchini, Marco; Lamberti, Paolo

1994-07-01

127

INFERNO - A PROJECT FOR THE INTEGRATION OF REMOTE SENSING INFORMATION IN OPERATIONAL WATER BALANCE MODELLING AND FLOOD FORECASTING  

Microsoft Academic Search

Methods to accurately assess and forecast flood discharge are a fundamental requirement in practical hydrology. However, existing rainfall-runoff models, seldom consider the spatial characterisation of the land surface, which is essential for an accurate description of processes relevant for runoff formation. Especially land surface conditions of high temporal variability, like soil moisture and snow properties, influence the extent of a

F. Appel; H. Bach; A. Löw; B. Waske; R. Ludwig; W. Mauser; W. Schulz; U. Merkel; N. Demuth

2005-01-01

128

Combination of different types of ensembles for the adaptive simulation of probabilistic flood forecasts: hindcasts for the Mulde 2002 extreme event  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flood forecasts are essential to issue reliable flood warnings and to initiate flood control measures on time. The accuracy and the lead time of the predictions for head waters primarily depend on the meteorological forecasts. Ensemble forecasts are a means of framing the uncertainty of the potential future development of the hydro-meteorological situation. This contribution presents a flood management strategy based on probabilistic hydrological forecasts driven by operational meteorological ensemble prediction systems. The meteorological ensemble forecasts are transformed into discharge ensemble forecasts by a rainfall-runoff model. Exceedance probabilities for critical discharge values and probabilistic maps of inundation areas can be computed and presented to decision makers. These results can support decision makers in issuing flood alerts. The flood management system integrates ensemble forecasts with different spatial resolution and different lead times. The hydrological models are controlled in an adaptive way, mainly depending on the lead time of the forecast, the expected magnitude of the flood event and the availability of measured data. The aforementioned flood forecast techniques have been applied to a case study. The Mulde River Basin (South-Eastern Germany, Czech Republic) has often been affected by severe flood events including local flash floods. Hindcasts for the large scale extreme flood in August 2002 have been computed using meteorological predictions from both the COSMO-LEPS ensemble prediction system and the deterministic COSMO-DE local model. The temporal evolution of a) the meteorological forecast uncertainty and b) the probability of exceeding flood alert levels is discussed. Results from the hindcast simulations demonstrate, that the systems would have predicted a high probability of an extreme flood event, if they would already have been operational in 2002. COSMO-LEPS showed a reasonably good performance within a lead time of 2 to 3 days. Some of the deterministic very short-range forecast initializations were able to predict the dynamics of the event, but others underpredicted rainfall. Thus a lagged average ensemble approach is suggested. The findings from the case study support the often proposed added value of ensemble forecasts and their probabilistic evaluation for flood management decisions.

Dietrich, J.; Trepte, S.; Wang, Y.; Schumann, A. H.; Voß, F.; Hesser, F. B.; Denhard, M.

2008-03-01

129

76 FR 64361 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Proposed Collection; Comment Request; National Flood...  

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013

...National Flood Insurance Program Claims Appeals Process AGENCY: Federal Emergency Management Agency, DHS...revision of the National Flood Insurance Claims Appeals Process. The appeal process establishes a formal mechanism to allow...

2011-10-18

130

Efficiency of a real time flood forecasting system in the Alps and in the Apennines: deterministic versus ensemble predictions  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Real time hydrological forecasting is still a challenging task for most of the Italian territory, especially in mountain areas where both the topography and the meteorological forcing are affected by a strong spatial variability. Nevertheless there is an increasing request to provide some clues for the development of efficient real time flood forecasting systems, for warning population as well as for water management purposes. In this perspective the efficiency of a real time forecasting system needs to be investigated, with particular care to the uncertainty of the provided prediction and to how this prediction will be handled by water resources managers and land protection services. To this aim a real time flood forecasting system using both deterministic and ensemble meteorological predictions has been implemented at University of Brescia and applied to an Alpine area (the Toce River - Piemonte Region) and to an Apennine area (the Taro River - Emilia Romagna Region). The Map D- Phase experiment (autumn 2007) was a good test for the implemented system: daily rainfall fields provided by high resolution deterministic limited area meteorological models and esemble rainfall predictions provided by coarser resolution meteorological models could be used to force a hydrological model and produce either a single deterministic or an esemble of flood forecats. Namely only minor flood events occurred in the Alpine area in autumn 2007, while one major flood event affected the Taro river at the end of November 2007. Focusing on this major event the potentials of the forecasting system was tested and evaluated with reference also to the geographical and climatic characteristics of the investigated area.

Grossi, G.

2009-04-01

131

Short period forecasting of catchment-scale precipitation. Part II: a water-balance storm model for short-term rainfall and flood forecasting  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A simple two-dimensional rainfall model, based on advection and conservation of mass in a vertical cloud column, is investigated for use in short-term rainfall and flood forecasting at the catchment scale under UK conditions. The model is capable of assimilating weather radar, satellite infra-red and surface weather observations, together with forecasts from a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model, to obtain frequently updated forecasts of rainfall fields. Such data assimilation helps compensate for the simplified model dynamics and, taken together, provides a practical real-time forecasting scheme for catchment scale applications. Various ways are explored for using information from a numerical weather prediction model (16.8 km grid) within the higher resolution model (5 km grid). A number of model variants is considered, ranging from simple persistence and advection methods used as a baseline, to different forms of the dynamic rainfall model. Model performance is assessed using data from the Wardon Hill radar in Dorset for two convective events, on 10 June 1993 and 16 July 1995, when thunderstorms occurred over southern Britain. The results show that (i) a simple advection-type forecast may be improved upon by using multiscan radar data in place of data from the lowest scan, and (ii) advected, steady-state predictions from the dynamic model, using "inferred updraughts", provides the best performance overall. Updraught velocity is inferred at the forecast origin from the last two radar fields, using the mass-balance equation and associated data and is held constant over the forecast period. This inference model proves superior to the buoyancy parameterisation of updraught employed in the original formulation. A selection of the different rainfall forecasts is used as input to a catchment flow forecasting model, the IH PDM (Probability Distributed Moisture) model, to assess their effect on flow forecast accuracy for the 135 km2 Brue catchment in Somerset.

Bell, V. A.; Moore, R. J.

132

Hydrologic Forecasting at the US National Weather Service in the 21st Century: Transition from the NWS River Forecast System (NWSRFS) to the Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS)  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The US National Weather Service developed the River Forecast System (NWSRFS) since the 1970s as the platform for performing hydrologic forecasts. The system, originally developed for the computers of that era, was optimized for speed of execution and compact and fast data storage and retrieval. However, with modern computers those features became less of a driver, and, instead, the ability to maintain and transition of new developments in data and modeling research into operations have become the top system priorities for hydrologic forecasting software applications. To address those two new priorities, and to allow the hydrologic research community at large to be able to contribute models and forecasting techniques, the National Weather Service proposed the development of the Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS). CHPS must be sufficiently flexible not only to ensure current operational models and data remain available, but also to integrate readily modeling approaches and data from the wider community of practitioners and scientists involved in hydro-meteorological forecasting. Portability considerations require the computational infrastructure to be programmed in a language such as Java, and data formats conform to open standards such as XML. After examining a number of potential candidates, the NWS settled on the Delft Flood Early Warning System (Delft FEWS) from Deltares as the basis for CHPS, since it shares the basic design characteristics, the underlying community philosophy and was being successfully used in operations in several countries. This paper describes the characteristics of CHPS and the transition path to make it operational and available to the community.

Restrepo, Pedro; Roe, Jon; Dietz, Christine; Werner, Micha; Gijsbers, Peter; Hartman, Robert; Opitz, Harold; Olsen, Billy; Halquist, John; Shedd, Robert

2010-05-01

133

Sub-Optimal Ensemble Filters and distributed hydrologic modeling: a new challenge in flood forecasting  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Data assimilation techniques based on Ensemble Filtering are widely regarded as the best approach in solving forecast and calibration problems in geophysics models. Often the implementation of statistical optimal techniques, like the Ensemble Kalman Filter, is unfeasible because of the large amount of replicas used in each time step of the model for updating the error covariance matrix. Therefore the sub optimal approach seems to be a more suitable choice. Various sub-optimal techniques were tested in atmospheric and oceanographic models, some of them are based on the detection of a "null space". Distributed Hydrologic Models differ from the other geo-fluid-dynamics models in some fundamental aspects that make complex to understanding the relative efficiency of the different suboptimal techniques. Those aspects include threshold processes , preferential trajectories for convection and diffusion, low observability of the main state variables and high parametric uncertainty. This research study is focused on such topics and explore them through some numerical experiments on an continuous hydrologic model, MOBIDIC. This model include both water mass balance and surface energy balance, so it's able to assimilate a wide variety of datasets like traditional hydrometric "on ground" measurements or land surface temperature retrieval from satellite. The experiments that we present concern to a basin of 700 kmq in center Italy, with hourly dataset on a 8 months period that includes both drought and flood events, in this first set of experiment we worked on a low spatial resolution version of the hydrologic model (3.2 km). A new Kalman Filter based algorithm is presented : this filter try to address the main challenges of hydrological modeling uncertainty. The proposed filter use in Forecast step a COFFEE (Complementary Orthogonal Filter For Efficient Ensembles) approach with a propagation of both deterministic and stochastic ensembles to improve robustness and convergence proprieties. After, through a P.O.D. Reduction from control theory, we compute a Reduced Order Forecast Covariance matrix . In analysis step the filter uses a LE (Local Ensemble) Kalman Filter approach. We modify the LE Kalman Filter assimilation scheme and we adapt its formulation to the P.O.D. Reduced sub-space propagated in forecast step. Through this, assimilation of observations is made only in the maximum covariance directions of the model error. Then the efficiency of this technique is weighed in term of hydrometric forecast accuracy in a preliminary convergence test of a synthetic rainfall event toward a real rain fall event.

Baroncini, F.; Castelli, F.

2009-09-01

134

A Multitemporal Remote Sensing Approach to Streamflow Prediction and Flood Vulnerability Forecasting  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The Guadalupe and San Antonio River basins of south-central Texas have a long history of catastrophic flooding events. Recent events in July 2002 and October 1998 resulted in enormous property losses and dozens of deaths. More than 48,000 homes were damaged or destroyed during the 2002 event, when as much as 35 inches of rain fell in parts of the upper and middle reaches of both river basins over an 8 day period. Eighty Texas counties were affected in some way by this catastrophe, with damage estimates exceeding $1.5 billion. The USGS currently operates and monitors 27 streamflow gaging stations within the Guadalupe and neighboring San Antonio river basins, providing adequate coverage for select reaches of main channels and major tributaries. However, numerous watersheds within both basins remain ungaged. Driven by budget constraints, these ungaged watersheds will likely remain so; thus contributing little hydrologic information toward a better understanding of basin flood hydrology while potentially contributing catastrophic runoff outflows during major precipitation events. A streamflow prediction model for gaged and ungaged watersheds in the Guadalupe and San Antonio river basins is currently under development based on multitemporal remote sensing imagery from the MODIS/Terra satellite platform. Recognizing that antecedent soil moisture plays a vital role in a watershed's hydrologic response to a precipitation event, the characterization of the antecedent moisture state of a watershed from remotely sensed biophysical variables could parameterize a statistical streamflow or runoff prediction model solely utilizing gaged, radar and/or satellite-based precipitation records and these remotely sensed variables. A 1418 km2 rural watershed in the central region of the Guadalupe River basin, a watershed that experienced a 90,000 cfs peak flow rate during the 1998 flood event, was selected for the model training phase of this project. A multiple regression model of gaged precipitation, land surface temperature, and select vegetation indices accounted for 78% (R2adj = 0.78) of the variance of gage station observed streamflow for calendar year 2004. Efforts are underway to calibrate and validate this model for other time periods within the data availability window of MODIS imagery products, and for other watersheds of varying size and similar climatic regime within the Guadalupe River and neighboring basins. The success of this remote sensing approach will have implications for developing near real-time flood risk and vulnerability forecasting models for both gaged and ungaged watersheds, as well as water supply management in regions of the world with limited resources to undertake conventional ground-based hydrologic studies.

Weissling, B. P.; Xie, H.

2006-12-01

135

Improving National Air Quality Forecasts with Satellite Aerosol Observations.  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Accurate air quality forecasts can allow for mitigation of the health risks associated with high levels of air pollution. During September 2003, a team of NASA, NOAA, and EPA researchers demonstrated a prototype tool for improving fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air quality forecasts using satellite aerosol observations. Daily forecast products were generated from a near-real-time fusion of multiple input data products, including aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)/ Earth Observing System (EOS) instrument on the NASA Terra satellite, PM2.5 concentration from over 300 state/local/national surface monitoring stations, meteorological fields from the NOAA/NCEP Eta Model, and fire locations from the NOAA/National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Wildfire Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm (WF_ABBA) product. The products were disseminated via a Web interface to a small group of forecasters representing state and local air management agencies and the EPA. The MODIS data improved forecaster knowledge of synoptic-scale air pollution events, particularly over oceans and in regions devoid of surface monitors. Forecast trajectories initialized in regions of high AOD offered guidance for identifying potential episodes of poor air quality. The capability of this approach was illustrated with a case study showing that aerosol resulting from wildfires in the northwestern United States and southwestern Canada is transported across the continent to influence air quality in the Great Lakes region a few days later. The timing of this demonstration was selected to help improve the accuracy of the EPA's AIRNow (www.epa.gov/airnow/) air quality index next-day PM2.5 forecast, which began on 1 October 2003. Based on the positive response from air quality managers and forecasters, this prototype was expanded and transitioned to an operational provider during the summer of 2004.


Al-Saadi, Jassim; Szykman, James; Pierce, R. Bradley; Kittaka, Chieko; Neil, Doreen; Chu, D. Allen; Remer, Lorraine; Gumley, Liam; Prins, Elaine; Weinstock, Lewis; MacDonald, Clinton; Wayland, Richard; Dimmick, Fred; Fishman, Jack

2005-09-01

136

Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts  

EIA Publications

The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

Information Center

2010-06-01

137

Continuum: a distributed hydrological model for water management and flood forecasting  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Full process description and distributed hydrological models are very useful tools in hydrology as they can be applied in different contexts and for a wide range of aims such as flood and drought forecasting, water management, prediction of impact on the hydrologic cycle due to natural and human changes to catchment features in present and changing climates. Since they must mimic a variety of physical processes they can be very complex and with a high degree of parameterization. This complexity can be increased by the need to relate the state variables to observations in order to allow data assimilation. In this work a model, aiming at balancing the need to reproduce the physical processes with the practical goal of avoiding over-parameterization, is presented. The model is designed to be implemented in different contexts with a special focus on data scarce environments. All the main hydrological phenomena are modeled in a distributed way. Mass balance and energy balance are solved explicitly. Land surface temperature, which is particularly suited to being extensively observed and assimilated, is an explicit state variable. An objective performance evaluation, based on both traditional and satellite derived data, is presented with a specific reference to the application in an Italian catchment. The model has been calibrated and validated using different data sets on two nested outlet sections and the capability of the model in reproducing both the stream-flow measurements and the land surface temperature retrieved by satellite measurements, has been investigated.

Silvestro, F.; Gabellani, S.; Delogu, F.; Rudari, R.; Boni, G.

2012-06-01

138

A study of effectiveness of the ensemble long-term forecasts of spring floods issued with physically based models of the river runoff formation  

Microsoft Academic Search

In this paper, possible ways to increase effectiveness of the long-term ensemble spring floods forecasting and to assess their\\u000a uncertainty based on the physical-mathematical model of the runoff formation (for the Vyatka River case study) are studied.\\u000a It is shown that deterministic forecasts issued by using this approach are more accurate than those obtained from the traditional\\u000a forecasting methods based

L. S. Kuchment; A. N. Gelfan

2009-01-01

139

Flood  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

The Flood site is an experiment with a stream table to see what happens during a flood. It was originally a joint project between a 6th grade class and the Bureau of Economic Geography. There are explanations and photographs of the experimental set up and of students and their observation of rivers forming and the creation of a flood. There is also a worksheet for experimental notes and a sheet containing the experimental method and instructions.

140

Uncertainty propagation for flood forecasting in the Alps: different views and impacts from MAP D-PHASE  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D-PHASE was a Forecast Demonstration Project of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) related to the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP). Its goal was to demonstrate the reliability and quality of operational forecasting of orographically influenced (determined) precipitation in the Alps and its consequences on the distribution of run-off characteristics. A special focus was, of course, on heavy-precipitation events. The D-PHASE Operations Period (DOP) ran from June to November~2007, during which an end-to-end forecasting system was operated covering many individual catchments in the Alps, with their water authorities, civil protection organizations or other end users. The forecasting system's core piece was a Visualization Platform where precipitation and flood warnings from some 30 atmospheric and 7 hydrological models (both deterministic and probabilistic) and corresponding model fields were displayed in uniform and comparable formats. Also, meteograms, nowcasting information and end user communication was made available to all the forecasters, users and end users. D-PHASE information was assessed and used by some 50 different groups ranging from atmospheric forecasters to civil protection authorities or water management bodies. In the present contribution, D-PHASE is briefly presented along with its outstanding scientific results and, in particular, the lessons learnt with respect to uncertainty propagation. A focus is thereby on the transfer of ensemble prediction information into the hydrological community and its use with respect to other aspects of societal impact. Objective verification of forecast quality is contrasted to subjective quality assessments during the project (end user workshops, questionnaires) and some general conclusions concerning forecast demonstration projects are drawn.

Rotach, M. W.; Arpagaus, M.; Dorninger, M.; Hegg, C.; Montani, A.; Ranzi, R.

2012-08-01

141

Comparison between genetic programming and an ensemble Kalman filter as data assimilation techniques for probabilistic flood forecasting  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flood events are among the natural disasters that cause most economic and social damages in Europe. Information and Communication Technology (ICT) developments in last years have enabled hydrometeorological observations available in real-time. High performance computing promises the improvement of real-time flood forecasting systems and makes the use of post processing techniques easier. This is the case of data assimilation techniques, which are used to develop an adaptive forecast model. In this paper, a real-time framework for probabilistic flood forecasting is presented and two data assimilation techniques are compared. The first data assimilation technique uses genetic programming to adapt the model to the observations as new information is available, updating the estimation of the probability distribution of the model parameters. The second data assimilation technique uses an ensemble Kalman filter to quantify errors in both hydrologic model and observations, updating estimates of system states. Both forecast models take the result of the hydrologic model calibration as a starting point and adapts the individuals of this first population to the new observations in each operation time step. Data assimilation techniques have great potential when are used in hydrological distributed models. The distributed RIBS (Real-time Interactive Basin Simulator) rainfall-runoff model was selected to simulate the hydrological process in the basin. The RIBS model is deterministic, but it is run in a probabilistic way through Monte Carlo simulations over the probability distribution functions that best characterise the most relevant model parameters, which were identified by a probabilistic multi-objective calibration developed in a previous work. The Manzanares River basin was selected as a case study. Data assimilation processes are computationally intensive. Therefore, they are well suited to test the applicability of the potential of the Grid technology to hydrometeorological research.

Mediero, L.; Garrote, L.; Requena, A.; Chávez, A.

2012-04-01

142

Coupling Radar estimated precipitation with distributed hydrological model for flood forecast  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

CINRAD radar is China’s new generation digital weather radar with which more than 100 systems have been deployed currently in China. CINRAD uses a mixture of C-Band and S-Band radars that can detect heavy rain at an interval of 5-6 minutes at 9 elevation angles in the precipitation detection mode with a maximum radius of 460 km. CINRAD can work reliably under extreme weather conditions and at high spatial resolution (depending on the distance to the radar and not greater than 4 km2 spatial resolution). It is expected that CINRAD will contribute to the observation of extreme storms and estimate precipitation quantitatively over much of populated China at high temporal and spatial resolution. In particular, in Southern China where many extreme floods derive from Topical Cyclones the S-Band Doppler radars are likely to revolutionise the development of real-time flood forecasting system design. Physically based distributed hydrological models, which discrete the terrain of a whole basin into a number of squared grids, and assign different model parameters and rainfall to different grids, thus a better representation of the basin characteristics and the hydrologic process, has the potential to better simulate and predict the flood processes. In this study the method coupling a physically based distributed hydrological model-the Liuxihe Model with CINRAD estimated precipitation is tested in several cases in Southern China, including small catchments, large river basins and urban area. The three CINRAD radars studied include the ones deployed in Guangzhou, Shaoguan and Meizhou Cites with data in the past three years. Before employed to estimate precipitation, the radar data reflectivity data was first quality controlled with several procedures including volume scan data, missing data interpolation, abnormal reflectivity detection and correction and fine day reflectivity removal. The estimated precipitation then is corrected with the observed rain gauge precipitation before inputting to the hydrological model. Liuxihe Model divides the studied basin into a number of cells horizontally, which are further divided into 3 layers vertically. All cells are classified as hillslope cells, river cells and reservoir cells according to their flow accumulation while having its own properties and model parameters. The saturation excess mechanism is employed to determine the surface runoff while the interflow is calculated using Campbell’s equation. The runoff routing is divided into hillslope routing and river routing. The model parameters are categorized as unadjustable and adjustable parameters. The unadjustable parameters are derived directly from the cell’s properties, whlie the adjustable parameters are adjusted to improve the model performance with an iterative procedure. The results shows that the simulated peak flow and the hydrograph are quite reasonable compared with the observed river discharge. From this study it can be concluded that weather radar has advantages over rain gauges during extremely weather condition as it can provide reliable precipitation estimation and to better represent the spatial distribution of precipitation over the river basin.

Chen, Y.

2009-12-01

143

National Weather Service Public Forecast Verification Summary, April 1973 to March 1978.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

Both WSFO (Weather Service Forecast Office) and NMC (National Weather Service) forecasts of temperature and precipitation made gradual improvements during the 5-year period from 1973 to 1977. One notable exception occurred during 1977, when the percent co...

D. S. Cooley F. S. Zbar D. F. Dubofsky A. K. Campbell

1981-01-01

144

Development of A Real Time Physically-based Flood Forecasting System In The Piemonte Region, Italy  

Microsoft Academic Search

The development and implementation of the Piemonte RegionSs real-time Flood Fore- casting System is described. The area of interest is the Upper Po River basin (North- west Italy) of approximately 37000 km2 and its river network of about 3000 Km and 3 big lakes. FloodWatch, a GIS-based decision support system for real-time flood fore- casting has been developed and operationally

S. P. Barbero; D. Rabuffetti; M. Buffo; M. Graziadei

2002-01-01

145

Idaho National Laboratory Materials and Fuels Complex Natural Phenomena Hazards Flood Assessment  

SciTech Connect

This report presents the results of flood hazards analyses performed for the Materials and Fuels Complex (MFC) and the adjacent Transient Reactor Experiment and Test Facility (TREAT) located at Idaho National Laboratory. The requirements of these analyses are provided in the U.S. Department of Energy Order 420.1B and supporting Department of Energy (DOE) Natural Phenomenon Hazard standards. The flood hazards analyses were performed by Battelle Energy Alliance and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. The analyses addressed the following: • Determination of the design basis flood (DBFL) • Evaluation of the DBFL versus the Critical Flood Elevations (CFEs) for critical existing structures, systems, and components (SSCs).

Gerald Sehlke; Paul Wichlacz

2010-12-01

146

The skill of precipitation and surface temperature forecasts by the NMC global model during DERF II. [NMC (National Meteorological Center) DERF II (Dynamical Extended Range Forecast II)  

SciTech Connect

This study assesses the skill of forecasts of precipitation and surface temperature by the National Meteorological Center's (NMC) global model in the 108 consecutive 30-day forecasts (known as Dynamical Extended Range Forecast II (DERF II)) that were made from initial conditions 24 h apart between 14 December 1986 and 31 March 1987. Model precipitation accumulated during the first 24 h of each 30-day forecast was used for verification. Anomalies were calculated by averaging the precipitation for a given forecast length over all 108 forecasts and subtracting the resulting mean from the precipitation for that forecast length. A similar procedure was used for surface skin temperature. The skill of the model's forecasts of precipitation and surface temperature anomalies was assessed, using anomalies from day-1 forecasts as verification. Precipitation forecasts for all regions of the globe exhibit more skill than persistence. Precipitation forecasts for the Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropics show skill 1.5 days further into the forecasts than forecasts for the tropics and exceed the mean skill of 1-day persistence forecasts until day 7. Even the worst individual forecast for the NH extratropics exceeds the mean skill of persistence through day 5. Time-mean precipitation forecasts for the NH extratropics display an anomaly correlation of 0.69 for forecast days 2-5 and 0.53 for forecast days 2-10 when verified against day-1 precipitation anomalies. Surface skin-temperature anomalies are more persistent than precipitation anomalies; forecasts of surface temperature anomalies have higher skill than forecasts of precipitation anomalies. Forecasts of time-mean surface temperature anomalies for the NH extratropics for forecast days 2-30 and 11-30 exhibit levels of skill similar to forecasts of time-mean precipitation anomalies. This implies that forecast skill for such long forecast periods reflects skill in predicting planetary-scale variations. 26 refs., 7 figs., 1 tab.

White, G.H.; Kalnay, E.; Gardner, R.; Kanamitsu, M. (National Meteorological Center, Washington, DC (United States))

1993-03-01

147

The effect of multi-nationality on the precision of management earnings forecasts  

Microsoft Academic Search

This study examines the relationship between a firm's degree of multi-nationality and its managers' earnings forecasts. Firms with a high degree of multi nationality are subject to greater uncertainty regarding earnings forecasts due to the additional risk resulting from the morecomplex multi-national environment. Prior research demonstrates that firms that fail to meet or beat market expectations experience disproportionate market losses

L. Murphy Smith; Bruce Runyan

2007-01-01

148

Flood  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This lesson plan is part of the discoveryschool.com lesson plan library for grades 6-8. It focuses on how flooding can occur due to different types of soil and how soils are able to retain rainwater. It includes objectives, materials, procedures, discussion questions, evaluation ideas, performing extensions, suggested readings, and vocabulary. There are videos available to order which complement this lesson, audio vocabulary, and links to teaching tools for making custom quizzes, worksheets, puzzles and lesson plans.

149

Development of flood profiles and flood-inundation maps for the Village of Killbuck, Ohio  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Digital flood-inundation maps for a reach of Killbuck Creek near the Village of Killbuck, Ohio, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with Holmes County, Ohio. The inundation maps depict estimates of the areal extent of flooding corresponding to water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage Killbuck Creek near Killbuck (03139000) and were completed as part of an update to Federal Emergency Management Agency Flood-Insurance Study. The maps were provided to the National Weather Service (NWS) for incorporation into a Web-based flood-warning system that can be used in conjunction with NWS flood-forecast data to show areas of predicted flood inundation associated with forecasted flood-peak stages. The digital maps also have been submitted for inclusion in the data libraries of the USGS interactive Flood Inundation Mapper. Data from the streamgage can be used by emergency-management personnel, in conjunction with the flood-inundation maps, to help determine a course of action when flooding is imminent. Flood profiles for selected reaches were prepared by calibrating a steady-state step-backwater model to an established streamgage rating curve. The step-backwater model then was used to determine water-surface-elevation profiles for 10 flood stages at the streamgage with corresponding streamflows ranging from approximately the 50- to 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities. The computed flood profiles were used in combination with digital elevation data to delineate flood-inundation areas.

Ostheimer, Chad J.

2013-01-01

150

Mortality from flash floods: a review of national weather service reports, 1969-81.  

PubMed Central

Of all weather-related disasters that occur in the United States, floods are the main cause of death, and most flood-related deaths are attributed to flash floods. Whenever a weather-related disaster involves 30 or more deaths or more than $100 million in property damage, the National Weather Service (NWS) forms a survey team to investigate the disaster and write a report of findings. All NWS survey reports on flash floods issued during 1969-81 were reviewed to determine the mortality resulting from such floods, the effect of warnings on mortality, and the circumstances contributing to death. A total of 1,185 deaths were associated with 32 flash floods, an average of 37 deaths per flash flood. The highest average number of deaths per event was associated with the four flash floods in which dams broke after heavy rains. Although there were 18 flash floods in 1977-81 and only 14 in 1969-76, the number of deaths was 2 1/2 times greater during the earlier period. More than twice as many deaths were associated with flash floods for which the survey team considered the warnings inadequate than with those with warnings considered adequate. Ninety-three percent of the deaths were due to drowning and 42 percent of these drownings were car related. The other drownings occurred in homes, at campsites, or when persons were crossing bridges and streams. The need for monitoring dams during periods of heavy rainfall is highlighted.

French, J; Ing, R; Von Allmen, S; Wood, R

1983-01-01

151

M5 Model Trees and Neural Networks: Application to Flood Forecasting in the Upper Reach of the Huai River in China  

Microsoft Academic Search

The applicability and performance of the so-called M5 model tree machine learning technique is investigated in a flood forecasting problem for the upper reach of the Huai River in China. In one of configurations this technique is compared to multilayer perceptron artificial neural network (ANN). It is shown that model trees, being analogous to piecewise linear functions, have certain advantages

Dimitri P. Solomatine; Yunpeng Xue

2004-01-01

152

Hydrological data assimilation with the Ensemble Square-Root-Filter: Use of streamflow observations to update model states for real-time flash flood forecasting  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The objective of the study is to evaluate the potential of a data assimilation system for real-time flash flood forecasting over small watersheds by updating model states. To this end, the Ensemble Square-Root-Filter (EnSRF) based on the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) technique was coupled to a widely used conceptual rainfall-runoff model called HyMOD. Two small watersheds susceptible to flash flooding from America and China were selected in this study. The modeling and observational errors were considered in the framework of data assimilation, followed by an ensemble size sensitivity experiment. Once the appropriate model error and ensemble size was determined, a simulation study focused on the performance of a data assimilation system, based on the correlation between streamflow observation and model states, was conducted. The EnSRF method was implemented within HyMOD and results for flash flood forecasting were analyzed, where the calibrated streamflow simulation without state updating was treated as the benchmark or nature run. Results for twenty-four flash-flood events in total from the two watersheds indicated that the data assimilation approach effectively improved the predictions of peak flows and the hydrographs in general. This study demonstrated the benefit and efficiency of implementing data assimilation into a hydrological model to improve flash flood forecasting over small, instrumented basins with potential application to real-time alert systems.

Chen, He; Yang, Dawen; Hong, Yang; Gourley, Jonathan J.; Zhang, Yu

2013-09-01

153

Real-Time Flood Forecasting System Based on Simple Lumped Rainfall-Runoff Models Combined with Channel Flow Routing Model Using Particle Filter  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A real-time flood forecasting system was developed for runoff forecasting at several water gauging points. The system is based on a flood runoff model composed of the upstream part and the downstream part models which are respectively simulating runoff for the upstream and downstream parts of the objective basin. The upstream part model is a lumped rainfall-runoff model, and the downstream part model consists of lumped rainfall-runoff models for hillslopes adjacent to a river channel and a kinematic flow routing model for the river channel. The system is updated by Particle filtering of the downstream part model as well as by the extended Kalman filtering of the upstream part model. The Particle filtering is a simple and powerful updating algorithm for non-linear and non-gaussian system, so that it can be easily applied to the downstream part model without complicated linearization. The system applied to the Yoshii River Basin located in Okayama Prefecture, and flood forecasting accuracy of the developed system was examined. The comparison between the forecasting accuracy of the system with both Particle filtering and extended Kalman filtering and that with only extended Kalman filtering shows that Particle filtering of the downstream part model well improves forecasting accuracy particularly for the basin having relatively large area ratio of the downstream part.

Kudo, Ryoji; Chikamori, Hidetaka; Nagai, Akihiro

154

Selecting a Methodology for Delineating Mudslide Hazard Areas for the National Flood Insurance Program.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The mudslide provisions of the National Flood Insurance Program and the problems associated with defining the term 'mudslide' are reviewed. The phenomena that can occur as a result of heavy rain in mountain drainage basins are described. A distinction is ...

1982-01-01

155

A Performance Evaluation of the National Air Quality Forecast Capability for the Summer of 2007  

EPA Science Inventory

This paper provides a performance evaluation of the real-time, CONUS-scale National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC), developed collaboratively by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), that supported, in part,...

156

Flash vaporization forecast and control in the heavy oil production well by steam flood  

Microsoft Academic Search

In the production process of heavy oil production well by steam flooding, local pressure drop is caused by the suction of pump when the oil-water mixture flows through the fixed valve, which causes flash vaporization in the pump. Flash vaporization in the pump will cause pump air lock, tubing and pump damage, fluid production decreased. Based on borehole temperature, pressure

Chunsheng Wang; Shuren Yang; Guoshuai Ju

2010-01-01

157

Costs and Consequences of Flooding and the Impact of the National Flood Insurance Program.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

This study examines the cost effectiveness of the NFIP in reducing flood costs to residences in SFHAs as well as in reducing costs to taxpayers. It also examines how well the NFIP serves low-income households. The study answers fundamental questions about...

C. Sarmiento T. R. Miller

2006-01-01

158

Understanding sources of uncertainty in flash-flood forecasting for semi-arid regions 1913  

Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

About one-third of the earth’s landsurface is located in arid or semi-arid regions, often in areas suffering severely from the negative impacts of desertification and population pressure. Reliable hydrological forecasts across spatial and temporal scales are crucial in order to achieve water securit...

159

The skill of precipitation and surface temperature forecasts by the NMC global model during DERF II. [NMC (National Meteorological Center) DERF II (Dynamical Extended Range Forecast II)  

Microsoft Academic Search

This study assesses the skill of forecasts of precipitation and surface temperature by the National Meteorological Center's (NMC) global model in the 108 consecutive 30-day forecasts (known as Dynamical Extended Range Forecast II (DERF II)) that were made from initial conditions 24 h apart between 14 December 1986 and 31 March 1987. Model precipitation accumulated during the first 24 h

G. H. White; E. Kalnay; R. Gardner; M. Kanamitsu

1993-01-01

160

Numerical Study of the Port of Miami (Importance of Dodge Island) in Storm Surge and Flooding Forecasting in North Biscayne Bay  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The importance of Port of Miami (Dodge Island) in storm surge and flooding forecasting in North Biscayne Bay was investigated by using the numerical model Coastal and Estuarine Storm Tide (CEST). Firstly, CEST was applied to Hurricane Andrew of 1992 in the Biscayne Bay basin and validated by in situ measurements, which indicated the model results had good agreement with measured data. Secondly, two sets of experiments using Hurricane Miami of 1926 were conducted to study the role of Dodge Island in storm surge and flooding forecasting in North Biscayne Bay: one set of experiments were run in today's Biscayne Bay basin and another set of experiments were run in Biscayne Bay basin of 1926 in which Dodge Island was not created yet. Results indicated that storm surge and flooding areas were reduced a little bit in Miami River areas when Dodge Island was not there. Meanwhile, storm surge and flooding areas in North Miami and Miami Beach regions were largely increased. Results further indicated that as long as the hurricane made landfall in south of Dodge Island, it can provide a good protection for Miami Beach area to reduce storm surge and flooding impacts.

Liu, H.; Zhang, K.; Li, Y.

2011-12-01

161

Improving National Air Quality Forecasts with Satellite Aerosol Observations  

Microsoft Academic Search

Accurate air quality forecasts can allow for mitigation of the health risks associated with high levels of air pollution. During September 2003, a team of NASA, NOAA, and EPA researchers demonstrated a prototype tool for improving fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air quality forecasts using satellite aerosol observations. Daily forecast products were generated from a near-real-time fusion of multiple input data

Jassim Al-Saadi; James Szykman; R. Bradley Pierce; Chieko Kittaka; Doreen Neil; D. Allen Chu; Lorraine Remer; Liam Gumley; Elaine Prins; Lewis Weinstock; Clinton MacDonald; Richard Wayland; Fred Dimmick; Jack Fishman

2005-01-01

162

A Novel Hydro-information System for Improving National Weather Service River Forecast System  

Microsoft Academic Search

A novel hydro-information system has been developed to improve the forecast accuracy of the NOAA National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS). An MKF-based (Multiscale Kalman Filter) spatial data assimilation framework, together with the NOAH land surface model, is employed in our system to assimilate satellite surface soil moisture data to yield improved evapotranspiration. The latter are then integrated into

Z. Nan; S. Wang; X. Liang; T. E. Adams; W. L. Teng; Y. Liang

2009-01-01

163

Weather and Forecasting Challenges in the Pacific Region of the National Weather Service  

Microsoft Academic Search

The large area of responsibility covered by the Pacific Region of the National Weather Service provides a unique set of challenges to operational forecasters. Extratropical, subtropical, and tropical meteorological phe- nomena on a wide range of temporal and spatial scales must be considered on a daily basis. Compounding the problems of forecasting diverse weather for such a large area of

Kevin R. Kodama; Steven Businger

1998-01-01

164

IMPROVING NATIONAL AIR QUALITY FORECASTS WITH SATELLITE AEROSOL OBSERVATIONS  

EPA Science Inventory

Air quality forecasts for major US metropolitan areas have been provided to the public through a partnership between the US Environmental Protection Agency and state and local air agencies since 1997. Recent years have witnessed improvement in forecast skill and expansion of fore...

165

National Delegates Board Meeting, Paris, 18 March 1976. Technical Presentations on Scientific and Technological Forecasting.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

This publication contains three papers on Scientific and Technological Forecasting delivered at the Technical Presentations Session of the AGARD Spring 1976 National Delegates Board Meeting. The papers are by Admiral Sir Peter Hill-Norton, Chairman, North...

1976-01-01

166

Meteorological and Hydrogeological Warning Thresholds in the operational bulletins of the Albanian National Centre for Forecast and Monitoring of Natural Risks  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Most operational meteo-hydrological warning system uses fixed rainfall thresholds on given durations to switch alerting bulletins. This may be a too rough approximation in regions with strong climate gradient like Albanian, especially when this bulletins need to include the evaluation of potential ground effect like floods. In the framework of the International cooperation between the Civil Protection of Italy and Albania, the National Centre for Forecast and Monitoring of Natural Risks has been established at the Institute of Geosciences, Energy, Water and Environment (IGEWE). The Centre is supported by expertise of CIMA Research Foundation - International Centre on Environmental Monitoring. The Centre issues (every morning) on a daily basis a Meteorological Warning Bulletin (the first bulletin was issued quite recently on the 20th of December 2011). It is mostly dedicated to the precipitation forecast, the most important hazard in Albania. It covers 36 hours, starting for the noon of the current day till the end of the next day. It offers a detailed precipitation forecast for each prefecture of Albania (12 in total). The prefectures that have to do with the most problematic river (Drini) are divided in a few warning areas each homogenous with respect to climatologic and hydrologic conditions. The meteo-warning is synthetically evaluated for each prefecture; it contains the assessment of the experts about the severity of the forecasted storm in terms of average precipitations, and maximum and, possible storms (if rainfall intensity exceed 90 mm in 3 hours). Reference meteorological model is COSMO LAMI7 (managed by ARPA Bologna, Italy), its spatial resolution is 7 km and temporal resolution for the outputs is 3 hours. Also ECMWF model is available. After the pure meteorological evaluation, possible adverse ground effects are assessed with a second level of variable rainfall thresholds, whose estimated recurrence interval is compared to soil moisture dependent values. The soil moisture conditions are computed by the operational probabilistic forecasting model Flood Proofs, implemented by CIMA for the Drin and lake of Shkodra basins. Flood Proof is also used to forecast river discharge at the mains hydraulic cross-section of the basins; the third level of assessment is based on discharge thresholds. All the meteorological and hydrological forecast models are available in the open source web-based platform DEWETRA (DEWETRA has been developed by CIMA on behalf of the Italian department of Civil Protection who uses it routinely for its activities of forecast, monitor and surveillance of Natural Risks) Meteo-Warning classification is chosen to be similar to MeteoAlarm; in the future the Center wish to participate in this European activity. Hydrological warnings are expressed in terms of risk scenarios.

Marku, M.; Mustaqi, V.; Abazi, E.; Zaimi, K.; Vako, E.; Gjonaj, M.; Hoxhaj, F.; Deda, M.; Fiori, E.; Massabò, M.; Castelli, F.

2012-04-01

167

Evaluation of Uncertainty in Nested Flood Forecasts by Coupling a Multifractal Precipitation Downscaling Model and a Fully-Distributed Hydrological Model  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Despite progress in satellite remote sensing, the use of space-borne precipitation fields in hydrological models remains elusive, in particular with respect to the space and time scales appropriate for flood forecasting. A major limitation towards use of coarse satellite products is the lack of a formal framework for downscaling precipitation fields in space and time over the catchment of interest. In this work, we develop and test a hydrometeorological forecasting procedure intended to evaluate the uncertainty incorporated into streamflow predictions through the use of downscaled precipitation products. Our approach relies on using a space-time multifractal model to downscale a coarse precipitation product, such as a satellite observation, and generating an ensemble of precipitation fields at high resolution. These synthetic fields are used to force a fully distributed hydrological model known as the TIN-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS) for flood prediction at multiple, nested locations. For this study, we first investigate the scaling properties of precipitation derived from the NEXRAD radar network in the Arkansas Red River Basin for the 1997-2003 summer months. We then calibrate a multifractal model based on a log-Poisson generator, exploring the linkages between the model parameters and the large scale meteorological observables. We also evaluate the accuracy of the downscaling products relative to the high resolution observed fields. Subsequently, we force tRIBS model with the synthetic downscaled precipitation ensemble to predict streamflow in the Baron Fork basin in Oklahoma and at nested interior locations. The resulting ensembles of synthetic hourly hydrographs and observed streamflow values are then post-processed to verify the forecast procedure. Scalar and non-scalar measures are used to evaluate the forecast reliability, resolution, sharpness and bias. The plausibility of the consistency condition for the ensemble forecast procedure is also investigated through the analysis of the verification rank histogram. Furthermore, we identify the catchment scale dependency in the forecast performance through analysis at multiple nested basins. To conclude, we summarize how ensemble forecast metrics can be used to quantify propagation of uncertainty from downscaled precipitation products to distributed flood forecasts.

Mascaro, G.; Vivoni, E. R.; Deidda, R.

2006-12-01

168

Analysis of Flood Hazards for the Materials and Fuels Complex at the Idaho National Laboratory Site  

SciTech Connect

Researchers at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory conducted a flood hazard analysis for the Materials and Fuels Complex (MFC) site located at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) site in southeastern Idaho. The general approach for the analysis was to determine the maximum water elevation levels associated with the design-basis flood (DBFL) and compare them to the floor elevations at critical building locations. Two DBFLs for the MFC site were developed using different precipitation inputs: probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and 10,000 year recurrence interval precipitation. Both precipitation inputs were used to drive a watershed runoff model for the surrounding upland basins and the MFC site. Outflows modeled with the Hydrologic Engineering Centers Hydrologic Modeling System were input to the Hydrologic Engineering Centers River Analysis System hydrodynamic flood routing model.

Skaggs, Richard; Breithaupt, Stephen A.; Waichler, Scott R.; Kim, Taeyun; Ward, Duane L.

2010-11-01

169

A national econometric forecasting model of the dental sector.  

PubMed Central

The Econometric Model of the the Dental Sector forecasts a broad range of dental sector variables, including dental care prices; the amount of care produced and consumed; employment of hygienists, dental assistants, and clericals; hours worked by dentists; dental incomes; and number of dentists. These forecasts are based upon values specified by the user for the various factors which help determine the supply an demand for dental care, such as the size of the population, per capita income, the proportion of the population covered by private dental insurance, the cost of hiring clericals and dental assistants, and relevant government policies. In a test of its reliability, the model forecast dental sector behavior quite accurately for the period 1971 through 1977.

Feldstein, P J; Roehrig, C S

1980-01-01

170

Robust multi-objective calibration strategies - possibilities for improving flood forecasting  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Process-oriented rainfall-runoff models are designed to approximate the complex hydrologic processes within a specific catchment and in particular to simulate the discharge at the catchment outlet. Most of these models exhibit a high degree of complexity and require the determination of various parameters by calibration. Recently, automatic calibration methods became popular in order to identify parameter vectors with high corresponding model performance. The model performance is often assessed by a purpose-oriented objective function. Practical experience suggests that in many situations one single objective function cannot adequately describe the model's ability to represent any aspect of the catchment's behaviour. This is regardless of whether the objective is aggregated of several criteria that measure different (possibly opposite) aspects of the system behaviour. One strategy to circumvent this problem is to define multiple objective functions and to apply a multi-objective optimisation algorithm to identify the set of Pareto optimal or non-dominated solutions. Nonetheless, there is a major disadvantage of automatic calibration procedures that understand the problem of model calibration just as the solution of an optimisation problem: due to the complex-shaped response surface, the estimated solution of the optimisation problem can result in different near-optimum parameter vectors that can lead to a very different performance on the validation data. Bárdossy and Singh (2008) studied this problem for single-objective calibration problems using the example of hydrological models and proposed a geometrical sampling approach called Robust Parameter Estimation (ROPE). This approach applies the concept of data depth in order to overcome the shortcomings of automatic calibration procedures and find a set of robust parameter vectors. Recent studies confirmed the effectivity of this method. However, all ROPE approaches published so far just identify robust model parameter vectors with respect to one single objective. The consideration of multiple objectives is just possible by aggregation. In this paper, we present an approach that combines the principles of multi-objective optimisation and depth-based sampling, entitled Multi-Objective Robust Parameter Estimation (MOROPE). It applies a multi-objective optimisation algorithm in order to identify non-dominated robust model parameter vectors. Subsequently, it samples parameter vectors with high data depth using a further developed sampling algorithm presented in Krauße and Cullmann (2012a). We study the effectivity of the proposed method using synthetical test functions and for the calibration of a distributed hydrologic model with focus on flood events in a small, pre-alpine, and fast responding catchment in Switzerland.

Krauße, T.; Cullmann, J.; Saile, P.; Schmitz, G. H.

2012-10-01

171

Beach erosion rates and the National Flood Insurance Program  

Microsoft Academic Search

Thirty of the nation's 50 states have coastlines on the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Great Lakes. These 30 states contain approximately 85% of the nation's population, and about half of this population resides in the coastal zone. Continued population growth is projected in the future, with a greatly increasing demand for beachfront development. At

Stephen P. Leatherman; Robert G. Dean

1991-01-01

172

Hydrologic Forecasting at the US National Weather Service in the 21st Century: Transition from the NWS River Forecast System (NWSRFS) to the Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS)  

Microsoft Academic Search

The US National Weather Service developed the River Forecast System (NWSRFS) since the 1970s as the platform for performing hydrologic forecasts. The system, originally developed for the computers of that era, was optimized for speed of execution and compact and fast data storage and retrieval. However, with modern computers those features became less of a driver, and, instead, the ability

Pedro Restrepo; Jon Roe; Christine Dietz; Micha Werner; Peter Gijsbers; Robert Hartman; Harold Opitz; Billy Olsen; John Halquist; Robert Shedd

2010-01-01

173

Application of a rule-based system for flash flood forecasting taking into account climate change in the Llobregat basin  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

IMPRINTS, an EC 7th Framework Programme project, has the main objective of contributing to the reduction of loss of lives and economic damage through the improvement of preparedness and operational risk management of flash floods (FF) and debris flow (DF) events. Global change is expected to put more stress on the entire water cycle and extreme events are likely to increase due to climate change. Thus, in the context of this project, impacts of future changes are analysed. The results of the project have been tested in the Llobregat river basin, in the Northeastern part of Spain. Its source is in the Pyrenees, and due to the rough orography of the region and the reduced size of most of the sub-basins, the hydrologic response times of these watersheds are around a few hours. The basin presents the typical Mediterranean climate where one third of the average annual precipitation can fall in less than 48h. Hence, flash floods occur during convective storms in many of the sub-basins. For this study, the Alt Llobregat, Anoia and Gaverresa sub-basins have been studied. One of the tasks of the IMPRINTS Project dealt with the development of different rule-based FF and DF forecasting systems, with the final goal of providing early warnings to the river basin authorities, improving the operation and management of extreme events. Nevertheless, in this work future climate change scenarios were implemented in the FF rule-based system for the mentioned Llobregat sub-basins. Despite losing the operational function, this could also be an issue of high interest, so the ability to represent the future with this system can be tested, and the possible future impacts can be assessed. The rule-based system used, based on daily precipitation data and developed by WSL, allows to determine future peak flows in some of the existing gauges, being able to approximate the increase of future extreme events. This was done using the future climate scenarios (2011 - 2100) developed by SMC and corrected by CRAHI to better represent the spatial variability. Using the previously described information, the future discharge time series for the A2 and B1 SRES scenarios were obtained and a Peak Over Threshold (POT) analysis was undertaken. By comparing the control period to the future ones, the expected changes of flash flood events in terms of occurrence and intensity were assessed. Despite the uncertainties that appear in the process (and which will be further studied in a next phase), the results obtained can shed some light on how future FF events may be. For the three sub-basins of the Llobregat river studied, the results coincide: an increase of both the occurrence and intensity of the peak discharge values will occur.

Velasco, M.; Cabello, A.; Barrera-Escoda, A.; Versini, P. A.; Zappa, M.

2012-04-01

174

Beach erosion rates and the National Flood Insurance Program  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thirty of the nation's 50 states have coastlines on the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Great Lakes. These 30 states contain approximately 85% of the nation's population, and about half of this population resides in the coastal zone. Continued population growth is projected in the future, with a greatly increasing demand for beachfront development. At present, there is considerable public concern over coastal erosion, erosion control measures, and land use regulations [National Research Council, 1990].Beach erosion is a significant and growing national problem. The National Shoreline Study, conducted by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers in 1971, was the first national appraisal of shore erosion problems. Significant erosion was found to occur along 43% of the U.S. shoreline if Alaska is excluded. Other large sections of sandy shoreline are also eroding, but the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers categorized it as noncritical erosion largely because of the lack of immediate threat to buildings and infrastructure at that time.

Leatherman, Stephen P.; Dean, Robert G.

175

Forecasting  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This site is a joint effort of NOAA Research and the College of Education at the University of South Alabama. The goal of the site is to provide middle school science students and teachers with research and investigation experiences using on-line resources. In this unit students look at the science of weather forecasting as a science by exploring cloud, temperatures, and air pressure data and information. Students apply this information to interpret and relate meteorological maps to each other. Parts of the unit include gathering information from other websites, applying the data gathered, and performing enrichment exercises. This site contains a downloadable teachers guide, student guide, and all activity sheets to make the unit complete.

176

Correcting the radar rainfall forcing of a hydrological model with data assimilation: application to flood forecasting in the Lez catchment in Southern France  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The present study explores the application of a data assimilation (DA) procedure to correct the radar rainfall inputs of an event-based, distributed, parsimonious hydrological model. An extended Kalman filter algorithm was built on top of a rainfall-runoff model in order to assimilate discharge observations at the catchment outlet. This work focuses primarily on the uncertainty in the rainfall data and considers this as the principal source of error in the simulated discharges, neglecting simplifications in the hydrological model structure and poor knowledge of catchment physics. The study site is the 114 km2 Lez catchment near Montpellier, France. This catchment is subject to heavy orographic rainfall and characterised by a karstic geology, leading to flash flooding events. The hydrological model uses a derived version of the SCS method, combined with a Lag and Route transfer function. Because the radar rainfall input to the model depends on geographical features and cloud structures, it is particularly uncertain and results in significant errors in the simulated discharges. This study seeks to demonstrate that a simple DA algorithm is capable of rendering radar rainfall suitable for hydrological forecasting. To test this hypothesis, the DA analysis was applied to estimate a constant hyetograph correction to each of 19 flood events. The analysis was carried in two different modes: by assimilating observations at all available time steps, referred to here as reanalysis mode, and by using only observations up to 3 h before the flood peak to mimic an operational environment, referred to as pseudo-forecast mode. In reanalysis mode, the resulting correction of the radar rainfall data was then compared to the mean field bias (MFB), a corrective coefficient determined using rain gauge measurements. It was shown that the radar rainfall corrected using DA leads to improved discharge simulations and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency criteria compared to the MFB correction. In pseudo-forecast mode, the reduction of the uncertainty in the rainfall data leads to a reduction of the error in the simulated discharge, but uncertainty from the model parameterisation diminishes data assimilation efficiency. While the DA algorithm used is this study is effective in correcting uncertain radar rainfall, model uncertainty remains an important challenge for flood forecasting within the Lez catchment.

Harader, E.; Borrell-Estupina, V.; Ricci, S.; Coustau, M.; Thual, O.; Piacentini, A.; Bouvier, C.

2012-11-01

177

Evaluation of a Non-Structural Flood Management and Habitat Enhancement Alternative at the San Joaquin River National Wildlife Refuge  

Microsoft Academic Search

As a result of the January 1997 floods, the San Joaquin River National Wildlife Refuge (SJRNWR) worked with the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to plan a non-structural flood management alternative (NSA). This alternative included breaching existing mainstem San Joaquin River levees on recently acquired refuge land to protect and restore wetland and riparian habitat. The proposed NSA will

C. L. LOWNEY; E. S. ANDREWS; C. B. BOWLES; J. A. HAAS; S. BLAKE

178

Decision support for dam release during floods using a distributed biosphere hydrological model driven by quantitative precipitation forecasts  

Microsoft Academic Search

This study proposes a decision support system for real-time dam operation during heavy rainfall. It uses an operational mesoscale quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) to force a hydrological model and considers the forecast error from the previous time step, which is introduced as a perturbation range applied to the most recent QPF. A weighting module accounts for the location, intensity, and

Oliver C. Saavedra Valeriano; Toshio Koike; Kun Yang; Tobias Graf; Xin Li; Lei Wang; Xujun Han

2010-01-01

179

The Impact of Corps Flood Control Reservoirs in the June 2008 Upper Mississippi Flood  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The US Army Corps of Engineers is responsible for a multitude of flood control project on the Mississippi River and its tributaries, including levees that protect land from flooding, and dams to help regulate river flows. The first six months of 2008 were the wettest on record in the upper Mississippi Basin. During the first 2 weeks of June, rainfall over the Midwest ranged from 6 to as much as 16 inches, overwhelming the flood protection system, causing massive flooding and damage. Most severely impacted were the States of Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, and Wisconsin. In Iowa, flooding occurred on almost every river in the state. On the Iowa River, record flooding occurred from Marshalltown, Iowa, downstream to its confluence with the Mississippi River. At several locations, flooding exceeded the 500-year event. The flooding affected agriculture, transportation, and infrastructure, including homes, businesses, levees, and other water-control structures. It has been estimated that there was at least 7 billion dollars in damages. While the flooding in Iowa was extraordinary, Corps of Engineers flood control reservoirs helped limit damage and prevent loss of life, even though some reservoirs were filled beyond their design capacity. Coralville Reservoir on the Iowa River, for example, filled to 135% of its design flood storage capacity, with stage a record five feet over the crest of the spillway. In spite of this, the maximum reservoir release was limited to 39,500 cfs, while a peak inflow of 57,000 cfs was observed. CWMS, the Corps Water Management System, is used to help regulate Corps reservoirs, as well as track and evaluate flooding and flooding potential. CWMS is a comprehensive data acquisition and hydrologic modeling system for short-term decision support of water control operations in real time. It encompasses data collection, validation and transformation, data storage, visualization, real time model simulation for decision-making support, and data dissemination. The system uses precipitation and flow data, collected in real-time, along with forecasted flow from the National Weather Service to model and optimize reservoir operations and forecast downstream flows and stages, providing communities accurate and timely information to aid their flood-fighting. This involves integrating several simulation modeling programs, including HEC-HMS to forecast flows, HEC-ResSim to model reservoir operations and HEC-RAS to compute forecasted stage hydrographs. An inundation boundary and depth map of water in the flood plain can be calculated from the HEC-RAS results using ArcInfo. By varying future precipitation and releases, engineers can evaluate different "What if?" scenarios. The effectiveness of this tool and Corps reservoirs are examined.

Charley, W. J.; Stiman, J. A.

2008-12-01

180

Potential hazards from flood in part of the Chalone Creek and Bear Valley drainage basins, Pinnacles National Monument, California  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Areas of Chalone Creek and Bear Valley drainage basins in Pinnacles National Monument, California, are subject to frontal storms that can cause major flooding from November to April in areas designated for public use. To enhance visitor safety and to protect cultural and natural resources, the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the National Park Service studied flood-hazard potentials within the boundaries of the Pinnacles National Monument. This study area extends from about a quarter of a mile north of Chalone Creek Campground to the mouth of Bear Valley and from the east monument entrance to Chalone Creek. Historical data of precipitation and floodflow within the monument area are sparse to nonexistent, therefore, U.S. Soil Conservation Service unit-hydrograph procedures were used to determine the magnitude of a 100-year flood. Because of a lack of specific storm-rainfall data, a simulated storm was applied to the basins using a digital-computer model developed by the Soil Conservation Service. A graphical relation was used to define the regionally based maximum flood for Chalone Creek and Bear Valley. Water-surface elevations and inundation areas were determined using a conventional step-backwater program. Flood-zone boundaries were derived from the computed water-surface elevations. The 100-year flood plain for both streams would be inundated at all points by the regional maximum flood. Most of the buildings and proposed building sites in the monument area are above the elevation of the 100-year flood, except the proposed building sites near the horse corral and the east monument entrance. The 100-year flood may cause reverse flow through a 12-inch culvert embedded in the embankment of Old Pinnacles Campground Road in the center of Chalone Creek Campground. The likelihood of this occurring is dependant upon the amount of aggradation that occurs upstream; therefore, the campground area also is considered to be within the 100-year flood zone.

Meyer, Robert W.

1995-01-01

181

Assessing the impact of updating approaches of the performances on a real-time flood forecasting model: a study on 178 French catchments  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We present the comparison of performances obtained by a real-time operational rainfall-runoff model running with different updating methods based on the assimilation of past observed streamflow data. The tested updating techniques are: (i) direct state updating, (ii) parameter updating and (iii) output updating (various methods ranging from simple regressions to ARIMA models and artificial neural network (ANN) approach). The comparison is drawn over a large sample of 178 French catchments encompassing the hydroclimatic variability of the country. The model is a continuous one, specifically designed to be run in 'forecasting' mode. We study specifically the impact of the updating method on model performance. Characteristic times of the updating techniques are defined and then compared to characteristic times of the model, the catchment and to the desired lead times. This approach helps to understand when and where a given updating technique is appropriate. The comparison gives results we believe useful for operational forecaster to choose their real-time flood forecasting system.

Berthet, L.; Andréassian, V.; Perrin, C.

2009-04-01

182

Hydrologic Forecasting in the 21st Century: Challenges and Directions of Research  

Microsoft Academic Search

Traditionally, the role of the Hydrology program of the National Weather Service has been centered around forecasting floods, in order to minimize loss of lives and damage to property as a result of floods as well as water levels for navigable rivers, and water supply in some areas of the country. A number of factors, including shifting population patterns, widespread

P. Restrepo; J. Schaake

2009-01-01

183

Towards large scale stochastic rainfall models for flood risk assessment in trans-national basins  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

While extensive research has been devoted to rainfall-runoff modelling for risk assessment in small and medium size watersheds, less attention has been paid, so far, to large scale trans-national basins, where flood events have severe societal and economic impacts with magnitudes quantified in billions of Euros. As an example, in the April 2006 flood events along the Danube basin at least 10 people lost their lives and up to 30 000 people were displaced, with overall damages estimated at more than half a billion Euros. In this context, refined analytical methods are fundamental to improve the risk assessment and, then, the design of structural and non structural measures of protection, such as hydraulic works and insurance/reinsurance policies. Since flood events are mainly driven by exceptional rainfall events, suitable characterization and modelling of space-time properties of rainfall fields is a key issue to perform a reliable flood risk analysis based on alternative precipitation scenarios to be fed in a new generation of large scale rainfall-runoff models. Ultimately, this approach should be extended to a global flood risk model. However, as the need of rainfall models able to account for and simulate spatio-temporal properties of rainfall fields over large areas is rather new, the development of new rainfall simulation frameworks is a challenging task involving that faces with the problem of overcoming the drawbacks of the existing modelling schemes (devised for smaller spatial scales), but keeping the desirable properties. In this study, we critically summarize the most widely used approaches for rainfall simulation. Focusing on stochastic approaches, we stress the importance of introducing suitable climate forcings in these simulation schemes in order to account for the physical coherence of rainfall fields over wide areas. Based on preliminary considerations, we suggest a modelling framework relying on the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS). This approach allows exploiting climate variables to improve the simulation of the spatio-temporal rainfall structure through dynamically varying marginal and joint distributions. The preliminary results of the spatio-temporal analysis and modelling of a large data set of daily rainfall time series from 15 countries in the Central Eastern Europe are shown. Finally, indications are given of how the model outputs will be used with rainfall runoff models for estimating collective flood risk across the Danube basin.

Serinaldi, F.; Kilsby, C. G.

2012-04-01

184

Verification of National Weather Service Ensemble Streamflow Predictions for Water Supply Forecasting in the Colorado River Basin  

Microsoft Academic Search

The Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) system, developed by the National Weather Service (NWS), uses conceptual hydrologic models and historical data to generate a set, or ensemble, of possible streamflow scenarios conditioned on the initial states of a given basin. Using this approach, simulated historical probabilistic forecasts were generated for 14 forecast points in the Colorado River basin, and the statistical

Kristie J. Franz; Holly C. Hartmann; Soroosh Sorooshian; Roger Bales

2003-01-01

185

PROFS to hone local storm forecasts  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Short-range forecasting of local tornadoes, flash floods, blizzards, and other severe storms is at best a tangle of myriad pieces of weather data, intricate processing of the data, careful interpretation of the results, and effective and rapid dissemination of the appropriate information; and because accuracy matters, the job becomes Herculean. A prototype program within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has shouldered the task of developing a systematic way to look at weather information and of translating it into operational forecasts for local, severe storms occurring within the proceeding 24 hours.The Prototype Regional Observing and Forecasting Service (PROFS), underway at NOAA's Environmental Research Laboratories in Boulder, Colo., mixes and matches an assortment of techniques used to gather and analyze weather data to see which combination yields the most accurate forecast. PROFS is a cooperative program between the National Weather Service, the National Environmental Satellite Service, and the Environmental Research Laboratories.

Richman, Barbara T.

186

Regional Sources of Error Growth in the National Meteorological Center's Medium-Range Forecast Model  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The full spatial structure of systematic and random error growth in the National Meteorological Center's Medium -Range Forecast Model is investigated in an effort to identify the sources of error growth. The random error growth is partitioned into two types: external error growth, which is due to model deficiencies, and internal error growth, which is the unstable growth of errors in the initial conditions. Data from winter 1987, summer 1990 and winter 1992 are compared to assess seasonal variations in regional error growth, as well as to forecast model improvement. (1) The tropical upper-tropospheric easterly bias in the forecast model is strongest in the regions of the upper-tropospheric westerlies. The structure of the evolution with forecast time of the U -field variance is consistent with the theory of stronger meridional propagation of extratropical disturbances where the U-field is westerly and energy accumulation where delta U/delta x is negative. (2) The spatial structure of the external error growth in the extratropics reveals that the representation of orography in the model is inadequate. There is evidence of enhanced external error growth over the Rockies, Himalayas, and Antarctica. (3) In the tropics, high external error at the 200 mb level is closely associated with deep convection. There is evidence of significant model improvements in the tropics at the 850 mb level between 1987 and 1992. (4) Internal error growth in the mid-latitudes is strongly associated with blocking phenomena, especially over the North Atlantic and Europe. (5) In the tropics, there is some evidence of internal error accumulation in regions where delta U/delta x is negative. The results of this study are physically meaningful and in agreement with previous predictability studies, as well as current knowledge of forecast model deficiencies, while at the same time, providing new information about the full spatial and temporal distributions of forecast errors.

Reynolds, Carolyn A.

187

Potential flood and debris hazards at Cottonwood Cove, Lake Mead National Recreation Area, Clark County, Nevada  

USGS Publications Warehouse

At Cottonwood Cove, Nevada, most of the existing dikes at the recreation sites are effective in diverting and routing floodflows, up to and including the 100-year flood, away from people and facilities. The dikes across Ranger Residence Wash and Access Road Wash at the mouth divert floods up to the 50-year recurrence interval away from residential areas. Flow and debris damage in protected areas will be relatively minor minor for floods including the 100-year flood, whereas damage caused by sediment deposition at the mouths of the washes near Lake Mohave could be significant for floods equal to or less than the 100-year flood. The extreme flood, a flood meteorologically and hydrologically possible but so rare as to preclude a frequency estimate, could cause great damage and possible loss of life. The present dikes would be topped or breached by such flooding. (USGS)

Moosburner, Otto

1981-01-01

188

A Quantitative Approach to Flash Flood Prediction in Southern Utah  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flash flood monitoring and prediction is considered to be a critical part of National Weather Service (NWS) severe weather operations in the semi-arid western United States. The complex terrain and steep slopes in this area, combined with impervious rock and soils, can induce flash flooding with relatively light rainfall. This reduces the value of using the more common conceptual flash flood models developed for the central and eastern United States. Thus, forecasters at the NWS Weather Forecast Office in Salt Lake City, Utah, have relied on a locally developed conceptual model to predict the likelihood of flash flooding on a given day. Until this study, common practice was to assume that humid and unstable air combined with low wind speeds in the lower troposphere would yield rainfall conductive to flash flooding. A new approach to flash flood prediction, exploring the connection between atmospheric variables and flash flood reports, will increase situational awareness and provide forecasters with quantitative flash flood guidance. A record of historical flash floods in southern Utah was compiled to determine the frequency of events from 1959 to 2003. A complete data set, consisting of both historical flash flooding days and non-event days, was assembled. A trial of the 2003 three-month flash flood season assessed which variables and which dataset to use in studying the eight flash flood seasons from 1996 to 2003; the trial concluded that the best source of atmospheric data was a set of soundings from Flagstaff, Arizona, a location close to and generally upstream of southern Utah. Neural networks were used to determine the relationship between the atmospheric state and a particular day's flash flood severity. The final neural network used six input variables and a discretized output variable. Precipitable water, low-level relative humidity, convective available potential energy, the 500hPa height change between 12Z and 0Z the following day, and the previous day's flash flood severity were found to be the important determinants of flash flooding in southern Utah. Data collected throughout the 2004 flash flood season was used to verify the accuracy of the above-mentioned flash flood prediction algorithm.

Hurwitz, M. M.; Gibson, C. V.; Jackson, M.; McInerney, B.

2005-05-01

189

Flash floods in India  

Microsoft Academic Search

After a brief description of the magnitude and nature of floods in Indian rivers, this paper describes the existing flood forecasting organisation in the country and the proposed plans to augment its services. The occurrence of intense, short duration rainfall during the south­ west monsoon period is then examined with respect to the regions of occurrence, frequency and magnitude. It

Pritam Singh; A. S. Ramanathan; V. G. Ghanekar

190

On the identification of flood prone areas from national scale territorial information: the case study of Italy  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The magnitude of recent flood events (e.g., Mississippi, 1993; Elba and Danube, 2002; Iowa and Midwest US, 2008) in terms of their spatial extent and economic impact calls for enhanced descriptions of flood risk scenarios. An evaluation of flood risk can be obtained through a lasting effort aimed at the collection of all the elements that contribute to risk definition: identification of flood prone areas, associated hazard levels, exposed values and vulnerabilities. This framework would benefit from a preliminary ranking able to identify those areas in which the hazard, the exposed values, or both are significant. This first risk evaluation has the indubitable advantage of using widely available information and could guide the risk evaluation process by defining a prioritization of river segments to be analyzed. In the present work a risk-ranking model, originally intended for insurance purposes, is presented. The model is based on the combination of information extracted from multiple catalogues, representing either physical aspects related to the flooding processes or economic and trading information, mainly related to exposed values and vulnerabilities. In this framework, digital terrain elevation and drainage network models are used to derive flood susceptibility, while data on the geographic location of population, industries, public services, infrastructures and land use are used as proxies of exposed values and vulnerability. To enhance the information content of the data, the model operates at both the national and the local scale of analysis. An application to the Italian territory shows that is possible to identify areas that, in resource-limited conditions, should be first selected for detailed studies. Results are finally compared against detailed studies provided by Basin Authorities, where available, and against the historical flood events catalogue "Aree Vulnerate Italiane" (AVI, http://avi.gndci.cnr.it/), produced by the Italian National Research Council.

Taramasso, A. C.; Roth, G.; Rudari, R.; Lomazzi, M.; Ghizzoni, T.

2009-12-01

191

Use of Land Information System Products to Monitor and Forecast Drought and Flood Conditions in the Columbia River Basin  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The Land Information System (LIS) software employs land surface models (LSMs) and can incorporate improved land surface parameters and assimilate appropriate, quality-controlled remote sensing and in-situ fields. These enhanced models produce a wide range of water and energy budget variables that can be used in modeling and predicting drought and flood conditions. One region that LIS is being customized for involves the Columbia River Basin in Washington where major flood and drought events have occurred in the recent past. The meteorological forcing fields used to drive and the parameter files used in the LSMs are validated against other in-situ or satellite datasets to determine their level of accuracy and their impact on the LSMs. The LIS output products are also validated against observations and are to be tested and evaluated in the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation decision support systems, like RiverWare. Some of the products include snow cover, snow water equivalent, land surface temperature, and evapotranspiration. Results from the LIS LSM experiment runs will be compared with observations and will be presented at the meeting.

Arsenault, K.; Hunter, S.; Holroyd, E.; Houser, P.

2005-12-01

192

Ensemble stream flow predictions, a way towards better hydrological forecasting  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The hydrological forecasting division at SMHI has been using hydrological EPS and hydrological probabilities forecasts operationally since some years ago. The inputs to the hydrological model HBV are the EPS forecasts from ECMWF. From the ensemble, non-exceedance probabilities are estimated and final correction of the ensemble spread, based on evaluation is done. Ensemble stream flow predictions are done for about 80 indicator basins in Sweden, where there is a real-time discharge gauge. The EPS runs are updated daily against the latest observed discharge. Flood probability maps for exceeding a certain threshold, i.e. a certain warning level, are produced automatically once a day. The flood probabilistic forecasts are based on a HBV- model application, (called HBV-Sv, HBV Sweden) that covers the whole country and consist of 1001 subbasins with an average size between 200 and 700 km2. Probabilities computations for exceeding a certain warning level are made for each one of these 1001 subbasins. Statistical flood levels have been calculated for each river sub-basin. Hydrological probability forecasts should be seen as an early warning product that can give better support in decision making to end-users communities, for instance Civil Protections Offices and County Administrative Boards, within flood risk management. The main limitations with probability forecasts are: on one hand, difficulties to catch small-scale rain (mainly due to resolution of meteorological models); on the other hand, the hydrological model can't be updated against observations in all subbasins. The benefits of working with probabilities consist, first of all, of a new approach when working with flood risk management and scenarios. A probability forecast can give an early indication for Civil Protection that "something is going to happen" and to gain time in preparing aid operations. The ensemble stream flow prediction at SMHI is integrated with the national forecasting system and the products are available to specialized end-users via Internet.

Edlund, C.

2009-04-01

193

3 CFR 8830 - Proclamation 8830 of May 25, 2012. National Hurricane Preparedness Week, 2012  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

...communities at risk of catastrophic damage from storm surges, flooding, high winds, and...take necessary steps to prepare before storms strike. With the National Oceanic and Atmospheric...we continue to advance accurate tropical storm forecasting that gives...

2013-01-01

194

Floods and flood management in Pakistan  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flooding is the most devastating natural hazard in Pakistan and the recent flooding has demonstrated its severeness. Floods are common throughout the country. However, their characteristics differ from region to region. Flooding behavior of the major basins and flood management at the national level are investigated in this article. Monsoon rainfalls are the main source of floods in the Indus Basin, while Mediterranean Waves and Cyclones, which are generated over the Arabian Sea, induce flooding in the Kharan Basin and the Makran Coastal Area. Fluvial floods in the Indus Basin have caused major economic losses. Pakistan's government has spent vast resources on relief operations and flood works since the country came into existence in 1947. A number of provincial and federal acts, ordinances, accords, and treaties shape the national flood policy. Institutional setup for flood hazard and crisis management has evolved over the years. Nevertheless, data show no major reduction in the flood-to-damage ratio. The inter-linkage of structural and non-structural measures and their combined efficiency must be analyzed and optimized for more effective flood management.

Tariq, Muhammad Atiq Ur Rehman; van de Giesen, Nick

195

Department of Energy award DE-SC0004164 Climate and National Security: Securing Better Forecasts  

SciTech Connect

The Climate and National Security: Securing Better Forecasts symposium was attended by senior policy makers and distinguished scientists. The juxtaposition of these communities was creative and fruitful. They acknowledged they were speaking past each other. Scientists were urged to tell policy makers about even improbable outcomes while articulating clearly the uncertainties around the outcomes. As one policy maker put it, we are accustomed to making these types of decisions. These points were captured clearly in an article that appeared on the New York Times website and can be found with other conference materials most easily on our website, www.scripps.ucsd.edu/cens/. The symposium, generously supported by the NOAA/JIMO, benefitted the public by promoting scientifically informed decision making and by the transmission of objective information regarding climate change and national security.

Reno Harnish

2011-08-16

196

A Novel Hydro-information System for Improving National Weather Service River Forecast System  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A novel hydro-information system has been developed to improve the forecast accuracy of the NOAA National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS). An MKF-based (Multiscale Kalman Filter) spatial data assimilation framework, together with the NOAH land surface model, is employed in our system to assimilate satellite surface soil moisture data to yield improved evapotranspiration. The latter are then integrated into the distributed version of the NWSRFS to improve its forecasting skills, especially for droughts, but also for disaster management in general. Our system supports an automated flow into the NWSRFS of daily satellite surface soil moisture data, derived from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System (AMSR-E), and the forcing information of the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). All data are custom processed, archived, and supported by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data Information and Services Center (GES DISC). An optional data fusing component is available in our system, which fuses NEXRAD Stage III precipitation data with the NLDAS precipitation data, using the MKF-based framework, to provide improved precipitation inputs. Our system employs a plug-in, structured framework and has a user-friendly, graphical interface, which can display, in real-time, the spatial distributions of assimilated state variables and other model-simulated information, as well as their behaviors in time series. The interface can also display watershed maps, as a result of the integration of the QGIS library into our system. Extendibility and flexibility of our system are achieved through the plug-in design and by an extensive use of XML-based configuration files. Furthermore, our system can be extended to support multiple land surface models and multiple data assimilation schemes, which would further increase its capabilities. Testing of the integration of the current system into the NWSRFS is ongoing.

Nan, Z.; Wang, S.; Liang, X.; Adams, T. E.; Teng, W. L.; Liang, Y.

2009-12-01

197

The August 2002 flood in Salzburg / Austria experience gained and lessons learned from the ``Flood of the century''?  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

On the {12th} of August 2002 a low pressure system moved slowly from northern Italy towards Slovakia. It continuously carried moist air from the Mediterranean towards the northern rim of the Alps with the effect of wide-spread heavy rainfall in Salzburg and other parts of Austria. Daily precipitation amounts of 100 - 160 mm, in some parts even more, as well as rainfall intensities of 5 - 10 mm/h , combined with well saturated soils lead to a rare flood with a return period of 100 years and more. This rare hydrological event not only caused a national catastrophe with damages of several Billion Euro, but also endangered more than 200,000 people, and even killed some. As floods are dangerous, life-threatening, destructive, and certainly amongst the most frequent and costly natural disasters in terms of human hardship as well as economic loss, a great effort, therefore, has to be made to protect people against negative impacts of floods. In order to achieve this objective, various regulations in land use planning (flood maps), constructive measurements (river regulations and technical constructions) as well as flood warning systems, which are not suitable to prevent big floods, but offer in-time-warnings to minimize the loss of human lives, are used in Austria. HYDRIS (Hydrological Information System for flood forecasting in Salzburg), a modular river basin model, developed at Technical University Vienna and operated by the Hydrological Service of Salzburg, was used during the August 2002 flood providing accurate 3 to 4 hour forecasts within 3 % of the real peak discharge of the fast flowing River Salzach. The August {12^th}} flood was in many ways an exceptional, very fast happening event which took many people by surprise. At the gauging station Salzburg / Salzach (catchment area 4425 {km^2}) it took only eighteen hours from mean annual discharge (178 {m3/s}) to the hundred years flood (2300 {m3/s}). The August flood made clear, that there is a strong need for longer lead times in Salzburg's flood forecasts. Methods to incorporate precipitation forecasts, provided by the Met Office, as well as observations of actual soil conditions, therefore, have to be developed and should enable hydrologists to predict possible scenarios and impacts of floods, forecasted for the next 24 hours. As a further consequence of the August 2002 flood, building regulations, e.g. the use of oil tanks in flood prone areas, have to be checked and were necessary adapted. It is also necessary to make people, who already live in flood prone areas, aware of the dangers of floods. They also need to know about the limits of flood protection measurements and about what happens, if flood protection design values are exceeded. Alarm plans, dissemination of information by using modern communication systems (Internet) as well as communication failure in peak times and co-ordination of rescue units are also a subject to be looked at carefully. The above mentioned measurements are amongst others of a 10 point program, developed by the Government of the Province of Salzburg and at present checked with regards to feasibility. As it is to be expected, that the August 2002 flood was not the last rare one of this century, experience gained should be valuably for the next event.

Wiesenegger, H.

2003-04-01

198

Progress and challenges with Warn-on-Forecast  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The current status and challenges associated with two aspects of Warn-on-Forecast—a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration research project exploring the use of a convective-scale ensemble analysis and forecast system to support hazardous weather warning operations—are outlined. These two project aspects are the production of a rapidly-updating assimilation system to incorporate data from multiple radars into a single analysis, and the ability of short-range ensemble forecasts of hazardous convective weather events to provide guidance that could be used to extend warning lead times for tornadoes, hailstorms, damaging windstorms and flash floods. Results indicate that a three-dimensional variational assimilation system, that blends observations from multiple radars into a single analysis, shows utility when evaluated by forecasters in the Hazardous Weather Testbed and may help increase confidence in a warning decision. The ability of short-range convective-scale ensemble forecasts to provide guidance that could be used in warning operations is explored for five events: two tornadic supercell thunderstorms, a macroburst, a damaging windstorm and a flash flood. Results show that the ensemble forecasts of the three individual severe thunderstorm events are very good, while the forecasts from the damaging windstorm and flash flood events, associated with mesoscale convective systems, are mixed. Important interactions between mesoscale and convective-scale features occur for the mesoscale convective system events that strongly influence the quality of the convective-scale forecasts. The development of a successful Warn-on-Forecast system will take many years and require the collaborative efforts of researchers and operational forecasters to succeed.

Stensrud, David J.; Wicker, Louis J.; Xue, Ming; Dawson, Daniel T.; Yussouf, Nusrat; Wheatley, Dustan M.; Thompson, Therese E.; Snook, Nathan A.; Smith, Travis M.; Schenkman, Alexander D.; Potvin, Corey K.; Mansell, Edward R.; Lei, Ting; Kuhlman, Kristin M.; Jung, Youngsun; Jones, Thomas A.; Gao, Jidong; Coniglio, Michael C.; Brooks, Harold E.; Brewster, Keith A.

2013-04-01

199

Notes on vocalisations of giant otters in the flooded Igapó forests of Jaú National Park, Amazonas, Brazil  

Microsoft Academic Search

Between January and June 2008, we surveyed three flooded Igapó areas (>5 km2 in total) in Jaú National Park, Amazonas, Brazil. The objective of this note is to provide quantitative information on the\\u000a vocalisations of the giant otters inhabiting these areas. We encountered the giant otters in January, February, March and\\u000a April 2008. From one to five individuals were observed during

B. M. Bezerra; A. S. Souto; N. Schiel; G. Jones

2011-01-01

200

Flood-inundation maps for the Suncook River in Epsom, Pembroke, Allenstown, and Chichester, New Hampshire  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 16.5-mile reach of the Suncook River in Epsom, Pembroke, Allenstown, and Chichester, N.H., from the confluence with the Merrimack River to U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Suncook River streamgage 01089500 at Depot Road in North Chichester, N.H., were created by the USGS in cooperation with the New Hampshire Department of Homeland Security and Emergency Management. The inundation maps presented in this report depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage at Suncook River at North Chichester, N.H. (station 01089500). The current conditions at the USGS streamgage may be obtained on the Internet (http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nh/nwis/uv/?site_no=01089500&PARAmeter_cd=00065,00060). The National Weather Service forecasts flood hydrographs at many places that are often collocated with USGS streamgages. Forecasted peak-stage information is available on the Internet at the National Weather Service (NWS) Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) flood-warning system site (http://water.weather.gov/ahps/) and may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. These maps along with real-time stream stage data from the USGS Suncook River streamgage (station 01089500) and forecasted stream stage from the NWS will provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood-response activities, such as evacuations, road closures, disaster declarations, and post-flood recovery. The maps, along with current stream-stage data from the USGS Suncook River streamgage and forecasted stream-stage data from the NWS, can be accessed at the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/.

Flynn, Robert H.; Johnston, Craig M.; Hays, Laura

2012-01-01

201

National Forecast for Geothermal Resource Exploration and Development with Techniques for Policy Analysis and Resource Assessment.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The backgrund, structure and use of modern forecasting methods for estimating the future development of geothermal energy in the United States are documented. The forecasting instrument may be divided into two sequential submodels. The first predicts the ...

T. A. V. Cassel G. T. Shimamoto C. B. Amundsen P. D. Blair W. F. Finan

1982-01-01

202

National ocean partnership project advances real-time coastal ocean forecasting  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A 1999-2000 National Ocean Partnership Project (NOPP) has demonstrated highly accurate predictions of ocean temperatures, currents, and surface elevation through a model that integrates the state of the ocean to routinely produce real-time nowcasts and forecasts. The success is attributed to a new technology for model-assimilation of satellite-derived surface observations with observations from in situ equipment. Because the Chesapeake Bay and the northwestern Atlantic boarding the east coast of the United States is an area of intense ocean harvest, recreational boating, and major shipping —activities that depend on near-term prediction of near-surface conditions of the waters off the eastern coast—it served as the test-bed for the “Coastal Marine Demonstration Project”

Thiebaux, Jean; Katz, Bert; Kelley, John; Breaker, Laurence; Balasubramaniyan, Bhavani

203

A coupled modelling system for the Irish Sea and Liverpool Bay with application to coastal flood forecasting and beyond  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The POLCOMS-WAM coupled wave and hydrodynamic model has been implemented at 1.8km resolution for the Irish Sea and 180m in a nested model of Liverpool Bay. It can be forced with output from the UK Met Office Unified Model. This allows the use of Smith and Banke (1975) and Charnock (1955) formulations for the wind-stress. The former gives an underestimate of the wind-stress, requiring enhanced winds for accurate surge hindcasts. While the latter gives good results for the Irish Sea and Liverpool Bay, with different values of the Charnock coefficient, it also allows the inclusion of a coupled wave stress into the wind-stress (Brown and Wolf, 2009). New results have been obtained by using wind and pressures from the WRF atmospheric model, allowing further development of air-sea coupling. The coupled model also includes bottom friction and the Doppler shift of the waves by the depth-averaged current), as well as advanced coupling procedures: use of the 3D current in the wave physics and calculation of radiation stress and Stokes' drift (Brown et al., 2011). During storm conditions it is found that the radiation stress is the most important term in this shallow water application. However, WAM runs in near real time, making this model only practical for research purposes. The model system has been used to hindcast tides, surges and waves in Liverpool Bay. Data are readily available from the Liverpool Bay Coastal Observatory to quantify the importance of each coupled term with the aim of producing the most accurate model setup for coastal forecasting. A storm event, 18th January 2007, has been hindcast to investigate extreme tide-surge-wave condition both offshore and inshore. During storm events, wave setup in shallow regions can contribute significantly to the total water elevation. The application of a 2D method to calculate radiation stress in a 3D hydrodynamic model is thoroughly examined by comparison with observations and a 3D model (Mellor, 2003). The results show that the 2D method is not only more computationally efficient, so more relevant for operational use, than the 3D solution, but also provides a more plausible solution, especially when coupled to a circulation model to allow proper distribution of wave setup. Radiation stress is demonstrated to be of major importance at an estuary mouth and along the coast, while having lesser impact within an estuary and further offshore. Further development of the coupled system includes modelling of SPM and water quality, both important and complex in this region of freshwater influence. Brown, J.M., Bolaños, R., Wolf, J., 2011. Impact assessment of advanced coupling features in a tide-surge-wave model, POLCOMS-WAM, in a shallow water application. Journal of Marine Systems, 87(1), 13-24. Brown, J. and Wolf, J. 2009 Coupled wave and surge modelling for the eastern Irish Sea and implications for model wind-stress. Continental Shelf Research 29 (10), 1329-1342. Charnock, H., 1955: Wind stress over a water surface. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 81, 639-640. Mellor, G., 2003. The three-dimensional current and surface wave equations. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 33(9), 1978-1989. Smith, S. D., Banke, E. G., 1975. Variation of the surface drag coefficient with wind speed. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 429, 665-673.

Wolf, J.; Bricheno, L. R.; Brown, J. E.; Bolaños, R.

2012-04-01

204

Major floods, poor land use delay return of sedimentation to normal ...  

Treesearch

... from flood-accelerated sedimentation affects both estimates of long-term average ... Keywords: watershed management, forest management, streamflow, logging effects, floods, sediment transport, sedimentation, water quality, forecasting.

205

Nuptiality Models and the Two-Sex Problem in National Population Forecasts-with an Emphasis on the Netherlands.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

This paper deals with possible solutions for the two-sex problem in nuptiality models focusing on applications in national population forecasts. Requirements for a realistic two-sex marriage model as described in the literature are mentioned, as well as a...

N. Keilman

1982-01-01

206

A successful forecast of an El Nino winter  

SciTech Connect

This year, for the first time, weather forecasters used signs of a warming in the tropical Pacific as the basis for a long-range prediction of winter weather patterns across the United States. Now forecasters are talking about the next step: stretching the lead time for such forecasts by a year or more. That seems feasible because although this Pacific warming was unmistakable by the time forecasters at the National Weather Service's Climate Analysis Center (CAC) in Camp Springs, Maryland, issued their winter forecast, the El Nino itself had been predicted almost 2 years in advance by a computer model. Next time around, the CAC may well be listening to the modelers and predicting El Nino-related patterns of warmth and flooding seasons in advance.

Kerr, R.A.

1992-01-24

207

78 FR 52780 - National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP); Assistance to Private Sector Property Insurers...  

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013

...WYO) Program Financial Assistance/Subsidy Arrangement (Arrangement), 85 (as of June 2013) private sector property...flood insurance claims under their own names based on an Arrangement with the Federal Insurance and Mitigation...

2013-08-26

208

77 FR 36566 - National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP); Assistance to Private Sector Property Insurers...  

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013

...WYO) Program Financial Assistance/Subsidy Arrangement (Arrangement), 82 (as of April, 2012) private sector...flood insurance claims under their own names based on an Arrangement with the Federal Insurance and Mitigation...

2012-06-19

209

76 FR 45281 - National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP); Assistance to Private Sector Property Insurers...  

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013

...WYO) Program Financial Assistance/Subsidy Arrangement (Arrangement), 87 (as of July 1, 2011) private sector...flood insurance claims under their own names based on an Arrangement with the Federal Insurance Administration...

2011-07-28

210

Development of flood-inundation maps for the West Branch Susquehanna River near the Borough of Jersey Shore, Lycoming County, Pennsylvania  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Streamflow data, water-surface-elevation profiles derived from a Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System hydraulic model, and geographical information system digital elevation models were used to develop a set of 18 flood-inundation maps for an approximately 5-mile reach of the West Branch Susquehanna River near the Borough of Jersey Shore, Pa. The inundation maps were created by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Susquehanna River Basin Commission and Lycoming County as part of an ongoing effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service to focus on continued improvements to the flood forecasting and warning abilities in the Susquehanna River Basin and to modernize flood-forecasting methodologies. The maps, ranging from 23.0 to 40.0 feet in 1-foot increments, correspond to river stage at the U.S. Geological Survey streamgage 01549760 at Jersey Shore. The electronic files used to develop the maps were provided to the National Weather Service for incorporation into their Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service website. The maps are displayed on this website, which serves as a web-based floodwarning system, and can be used to identify areas of predicted flood inundation associated with forecasted flood-peak stages. During times of flooding or predicted flooding, these maps can be used by emergency managers and the public to take proactive steps to protect life and reduce property damage caused by floods.

Roland, Mark A.; Hoffman, Scott A.

2011-01-01

211

Flood analysis along the Little Missouri River within and adjacent to Theodore Roosevelt National Park, North Dakota  

USGS Publications Warehouse

The Little Missouri River flows through Theodore Roosevelt National Park, which consists of three separate units: South Unit, Elkhorn Ranch Site, and North Unit. The park is located in the Little Missouri badlands. Discharges and water surface elevations for 100 yr or 500 yr floods or both were computed for selected reaches along the Little Missouri River and three of its tributaries (Knutson Creek, Paddock Creek, and Squaw Creek) within and adjacent to Theodore Roosevelt National Park. The 100-yr flood discharge determined for the Little Missouri River South Unit reach was 65,300 cu ft/sec; the discharge determined for the Little Missouri River Elkhorn Ranch Site reach was 69 ,000 cu ft/sec; and the discharge determined for the Little Missouri River North Unit reach was 78,800 cu ft/sec. A multiple regression equation based on drainage area and infiltration index was used in the flood flow frequency analysis for the creeks. The 100 yr flood discharge determined for Knutson Creek reach was 31,800 cu ft/sec; the discharge determined for Paddock Creek reach was 18,500 cu ft/sec; and the discharge determined for Squaw Creek reach was 24,600 cu ft/sec. Cross-sectional data were obtained by field surveys. Water surface elevations were computed using step-backwater methods. Streamflow records for two stations on the Little Missouri River were used to develop maximum observed backwater envelope curves and elevation frequency curves. The maximum observed backwater envelope curves show a trend in which the backwater decreases as the discharge increases. The backwater due to ice approaches zero before reaching the computed elevations for the 100 yr discharges. (Lantz-PTT)

Emerson, D. G.; Macek-Rowland, Kathleen

1986-01-01

212

Development of a flood-warning system and flood-inundation mapping in Licking County, Ohio  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Digital flood-inundation maps for selected reaches of South Fork Licking River, Raccoon Creek, North Fork Licking River, and the Licking River in Licking County, Ohio, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Ohio Department of Transportation; U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration; Muskingum Watershed Conservancy District; U.S. Department of Agriculture, Natural Resources Conservation Service; and the City of Newark and Village of Granville, Ohio. The inundation maps depict estimates of the areal extent of flooding corresponding to water levels (stages) at the following USGS streamgages: South Fork Licking River at Heath, Ohio (03145173); Raccoon Creek below Wilson Street at Newark, Ohio (03145534); North Fork Licking River at East Main Street at Newark, Ohio (03146402); and Licking River near Newark, Ohio (03146500). The maps were provided to the National Weather Service (NWS) for incorporation into a Web-based flood-warning system that can be used in conjunction with NWS flood-forecast data to show areas of predicted flood inundation associated with forecasted flood-peak stages. As part of the flood-warning streamflow network, the USGS re-installed one streamgage on North Fork Licking River, and added three new streamgages, one each on North Fork Licking River, South Fork Licking River, and Raccoon Creek. Additionally, the USGS upgraded a lake-level gage on Buckeye Lake. Data from the streamgages and lake-level gage can be used by emergency-management personnel, in conjunction with the flood-inundation maps, to help determine a course of action when flooding is imminent. Flood profiles for selected reaches were prepared by calibrating steady-state step-backwater models to selected, established streamgage rating curves. The step-backwater models then were used to determine water-surface-elevation profiles for up to 10 flood stages at a streamgage with corresponding streamflows ranging from approximately the 50 to 0.2-percent chance annual-exceedance probabilities for each of the 4 streamgages that correspond to the flood-inundation maps. The computed flood profiles were used in combination with digital elevation data to delineate flood-inundation areas. Maps of Licking County showing flood-inundation areas overlain on digital orthophotographs are presented for the selected floods. The USGS also developed an unsteady-flow model for a reach of South Fork Licking River for use by the NWS to enhance their ability to provide advanced flood warning in the region north of Buckeye Lake, Ohio. The unsteady-flow model was calibrated based on data from four flooding events that occurred from June 2008 to December 2011. Model calibration was approximate due to the fact that there were unmeasured inflows to the river that were not able to be considered during the calibration. Information on unmeasured inflow derived from NWS hydrologic models and additional flood-event data could enable the NWS to further refine the unsteady-flow model.

Ostheimer, Chad J.

2012-01-01

213

Early flood warning for Linyi watershed by the GRAPES/XXT model using TIGGE data  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Early and effective flood warning is essential for reducing loss of life and economic damage. Three global ensemble weather prediction systems of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in THORPEX (The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) archive are used in this research to drive the Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System (GRAPES) to produce 6-h lead time forecasts. The output (precipitation, air temperature, humidity, and pressure) in turn drives a hydrological model XXT (the first X stands for Xinanjiang, the second X stands for hybrid, and T stands for TOPMODEL), the hybrid model that combines the TOPMODEL (a topography based hydrological model) and the Xinanjiang model, for a case study of a flood event that lasted from 18 to 20 July 2007 in the Linyi watershed. The results show that rainfall forecasts by GRAPES using TIGGE data from the three forecast centers all underestimate heavy rainfall rates; the rainfall forecast by GRAPES using the data from the NCEP is the closest to the observation while that from the CMA performs the worst. Moreover, the ensemble is not better than individual members for rainfall forecasts. In contrast to corresponding rainfall forecasts, runoff forecasts are much better for all three forecast centers, especially for the NCEP. The results suggest that early flood warning by the GRAPES/XXT model based on TIGGE data is feasible and this provides a new approach to raise preparedness and thus to reduce the socio-economic impact of floods.

Xu, Jingwen; Zhang, Wanchang; Zheng, Ziyan; Jiao, Meiyan; Chen, Jing

2012-02-01

214

44 CFR Appendix B to Part 62 - National Flood Insurance Program  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

...on-site reviews of the Company's files by us or our designee. Furthermore, we believe...ensure that the financial data reported to us accurately represents the flood insurance...requirements). The Company must file with us a report of the CPA firm's detailed...

2012-10-01

215

The proposal about constructing the National Disaster Monitoring, Forecast and Control System  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

It is known that different kinds of natural disaster cause big loss in people's lives and damage in properties every year in many countries, and the monitoring, forecast and control to prevent as mitigate the harm is very important indeed. Some kinds of disasters might be foreseen and the developing trend may be understood from the observation facilities under management of professional department. Here we suggest that the existing domestic and foreign monitoring systems, especially the space systems already in use, should be utilized for disaster mitigation purpose before some new system being developed specially for it. The information collection part of the Disaster Monitoring, Forecast and Control System (DMFCS) may be composed of three layers of sensing implements, the earth observing satellites, the remote sensing airplanes and the local ground sensing instruments whose data could be sent to the centers concerned through the data collcetion system (DCS) of various kinds of satellits. In coordination with the monitoring systems, the position fixing satellite system, the Global Positioning System (GPS/GLONASS) or the Radiodetermination Satellite Service (RDSS) which in China was named the Bisatellite Position Determination System (BPDS) under developing is also indispensable. In DMFCS the nucleus is the Control Center (DMFCC). It is connected with the centers of the existing professional organizations and the Regional Disaster Control Centers (RDCC). In this paper we pay more attention to the construction of DMFCC. The center should be led by the department particularly concerned with disaster prevention, preparedness and relief (as it has been announced by the United Nations). The Centers will fully utilize the real time information from the monitoring means and the information stored in the data base to display the state of the disasters, to help the decision of the department leader to issue instructions to the Regional Centers to take measures for controlling, rescue and salvation. It is also pointed out that the fundamental research works are necessary for the study of the cause, prediction and the social effect of natural disasters and the accumulation of data is important for further use too.

Chen, Fang-yun; Tong, Kai; Yang, Jia-chi

216

Weather Forecasting  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Weather Forecasting is a set of computer-based learning modules that teach students about meteorology from the point of view of learning how to forecast the weather. The modules were designed as the primary teaching resource for a seminar course on weather forecasting at the introductory college level (originally METR 151, later ATMO 151) and can also be used in the laboratory component of an introductory atmospheric science course. The modules assume no prior meteorological knowledge. In addition to text and graphics, the modules include interactive questions and answers designed to reinforce student learning. The module topics are: 1. How to Access Weather Data, 2. How to Read Hourly Weather Observations, 3. The National Collegiate Weather Forecasting Contest, 4. Radiation and the Diurnal Heating Cycle, 5. Factors Affecting Temperature: Clouds and Moisture, 6. Factors Affecting Temperature: Wind and Mixing, 7. Air Masses and Fronts, 8. Forces in the Atmosphere, 9. Air Pressure, Temperature, and Height, 10. Winds and Pressure, 11. The Forecasting Process, 12. Sounding Diagrams, 13. Upper Air Maps, 14. Satellite Imagery, 15. Radar Imagery, 16. Numerical Weather Prediction, 17. NWS Forecast Models, 18. Sources of Model Error, 19. Sea Breezes, Land Breezes, and Coastal Fronts, 20. Soundings, Clouds, and Convection, 21. Snow Forecasting.

Nielsen-Gammon, John

1996-09-01

217

Data and Administrative Considerations for Two District Flood Plain Zoning.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

National flood plain management policy has shifted from placing the primary emphasis on structural controls to a balance between structural and regulatory type controls. Two district flood plain zoning, in which the flood hazard area is divided into flood...

S. J. Burges J. S. Hillmer

1974-01-01

218

Integrated Forecast and Reservoir Management for Northern California  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The INFORM (Integrated Forecast and Reservoir Management) Demonstration Project was created to demonstrate the utility of climate, weather and hydrologic predictions for water resources management in Northern California (includes Trinity River, the Sacramento River, the Feather River, the American River, the San Joaquin River, and the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta). The INFORM system integrates climate-weather-hydrology forecasting and adaptive reservoir management methods, explicitly accounting for system input and model uncertainties. Operational ensemble forecasts from the Global Forecast System (GFS) and the Climate Forecast System (CFS) of the National Centers of Environmental Prediction (NCEP) are used to drive the WRF model and an Intermediate Complexity Regional Model (ICRM) to produce ensemble precipitation and temperature forecasts with a 10km x 10km resolution and from 6 hours to 30 days. These forecasts feed hydrologic models and provide ensemble inflow forecasts for the major reservoirs of Northern California. The ensemble inflow forecasts are input to a multiobjective and multisite adaptive decision support system designed to support the planning and management processes by deriving real time trade-offs among all relevant water management objectives (i.e., water supply and conservation, hydroelectric power production, flood control, and fisheries and environmental management) at user preferred risk levels. Operational tests over an initial three-year demonstration phase showed good operational performance both for wet and dry years. The presentation focuses on (1) modeling aspects of the current forecast and reservoir components and recent tests and (2) use of recent forecasts for the generation of applicable operational tradeoffs. The test results corroborate the operational value of the integrated forecast-management system.

Georgakakos, K. P.; Graham, N.; Georgakakos, A. P.; Yao, H.

2011-12-01

219

COMPARISON OF FLOOD PREDICTION MODELS FOR RIVER LOKOJA, NIGERIA  

Microsoft Academic Search

Flood estimation is one of the major aspects of hydrologic design and is the first in planning for flood regulation and protection measures. This research work was aimed at comparing prediction models for forecasting flood occurrences in River Lokoja, located in Kogi State of Nigeria. Relevant climatic data such as rainfalls, flood discharges, river stages of 24 years duration (1980

220

Flood-inundation maps for an 8.9-mile reach of the South Fork Little River at Hopkinsville, Kentucky  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Digital flood-inundation maps for an 8.9-mile reach of South Fork Little River at Hopkinsville, Kentucky, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the City of Hopkinsville Community Development Services. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/ depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage at South Fork Little River at Highway 68 By-Pass at Hopkinsville, Kentucky (station no. 03437495). Current conditions for the USGS streamgage may be obtained online at the USGS National Water Information System site (http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/inventory?agency_code=USGS&site_no=03437495). In addition, the information has been provided to the National Weather Service (NWS) for incorporation into their Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service flood warning system (http://water.weather.gov/ahps/). The NWS forecasts flood hydrographs at many places that are often co-located at USGS streamgages. The forecasted peak-stage information, also available on the Internet, may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. In this study, flood profiles were computed for the South Fork Little River reach by using HEC-RAS, a one-dimensional step-backwater model developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The hydraulic model was calibrated by using the most current (2012) stage-discharge relation at the South Fork Little River at Highway 68 By-Pass at Hopkinsville, Kentucky, streamgage and measurements collected during recent flood events. The calibrated model was then used to calculate 13 water-surface profiles for a sequence of flood stages, most at 1-foot intervals, referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from a stage near bank full to the estimated elevation of the 1.0-percent annual exceedance probability flood at the streamgage. To delineate the flooded area at each interval flood stage, the simulated water-surface profiles were combined with a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the study area by using Geographic Information System (GIS) software. The DEM consisted of bare-earth elevations within the study area and was derived from a Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) dataset having a 3.28-foot horizontal resolution. These flood-inundation maps, along with online information regarding current stages from USGS streamgage and forecasted stages from the NWS, provide emergency management and local residents with critical information for flood response activities such as evacuations, road closures, and post-flood recovery efforts.

Lant, Jeremiah G.

2013-01-01

221

Probability Forecasting in Meteorology  

Microsoft Academic Search

Efforts to quantify the uncertainty in weather forecasts began more than 75 years ago, and many studies and experiments involving objective and subjective probability forecasting have been conducted in meteorology in the intervening period. Moreover, the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) initiated a nationwide program in 1965 in which precipitation probability forecasts were formulated on an operational basis and routinely

Allan H. Murphy; Robert L. Winkler

1984-01-01

222

Thirty Years Later: Reflections of the Big Thompson Flood, Colorado, 1976 to 2006  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thirty years ago, over 300 mm of rain fell in about 4 to 6 hours in the middle reaches of the Big Thompson River Basin during the devastating flash flood on July 31, 1976. The rainstorm produced flood discharges that exceeded 40 m3/s/km2. A peak discharge of 883 m3/s was estimated at the Big Thompson River near Drake streamflow-gaging station. The raging waters left 144 people dead, 250 injured, and over 800 people were evacuated by helicopter. Four-hundred eighteen homes and businesses were destroyed, as well as 438 automobiles, and damage to infrastructure left the canyon reachable only via helicopter. Total damage was estimated in excess of $116 million (2006 dollars). Natural hazards similar to the Big Thompson flood are rare, but the probability of a similar event hitting the Front Range, other parts of Colorado, or other parts of the Nation is real. Although much smaller in scale than the Big Thompson flood, several flash floods have happened during the monsoon in early July 2006 in the Colorado foothills that reemphasized the hazards associated with flash flooding. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducts flood research to help understand and predict the magnitude and likelihood of large streamflow events such as the Big Thompson flood. A summary of hydrologic conditions of the 1976 flood, what the 1976 flood can teach us about flash floods, a description of some of the advances in USGS flood science as a consequence of this disaster, and lessons that we learned to help reduce loss of life from this extraordinary flash flood are discussed. In the 30 years since the Big Thompson flood, there have been important advances in streamflow monitoring and flood warning. The National Weather Service (NWS) NEXRAD radar allows real-time monitoring of precipitation in most places in the United States. The USGS currently (2006) operates about 7,250 real-time streamflow-gaging stations in the United States that are monitored by the USGS, the NWS, and emergency managers. When substantial flooding occurs, the USGS mobilizes personnel to collect streamflow data in affected areas. Streamflow data improve flood forecasting and provide data for flood-frequency analysis for floodplain management, design of structures located in floodplains, and related water studies. An important lesson learned is that nature provides environmental signs before and during floods that can help people avoid hazard areas. Important contributions to flood science as a result of the 1976 flood include development of paleoflood methods to interpret the preserved flood-plain stratigraphy to document the number, magnitude, and age of floods that occurred prior to streamflow monitoring. These methods and data on large floods can be used in many mountain-river systems to help us better understand flood hazards and plan for the future. For example, according to conventional flood-frequency analysis, the 1976 Big Thompson flood had a flood recurrence interval of about 100 years. However, paleoflood research indicated the 1976 flood was the largest in about the last 10,000 years in the basin and had a flood recurrence interval in excess of 1,000 years.

Jarrett, R. D.; Costa, J. E.; Brunstein, F. C.; Quesenberry, C. A.; Vandas, S. J.; Capesius, J. P.; O'Neill, G. B.

2006-12-01

223

Ecological Effects of the Lawn Lake Flood of 1982, Rocky Mountain National Park.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

Contents: Hydrology and Geomorphology of the 1982 Lawn Lake Dam Failure, Colorado; Geomorphic Response of the Fall River, Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado; Alpine Sediment Movement and Erosion in the Roaring River Watershed, Rocky Mountain National ...

H. E. McCutchen R. Herrmann D. R. Stevens

1993-01-01

224

44 CFR 60.3 - Flood plain management criteria for flood-prone areas.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

... 1 2009-10-01 2009-10-01 false Flood plain management criteria for flood-prone areas. 60.3 Section 60.3 Emergency...SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program CRITERIA FOR LAND...

2009-10-01

225

44 CFR 60.3 - Flood plain management criteria for flood-prone areas.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

... 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Flood plain management criteria for flood-prone areas. 60.3 Section 60.3 Emergency...SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program CRITERIA FOR LAND...

2010-10-01

226

Flash Flood Processes  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

According to NOAA's National Weather Service, a flash flood is a life-threatening flood that begins within 6 hours--and often within 3 hours--of a causative event. That causative event can be intense rainfall, the failure of a dam, levee, or other structure that is impounding water, or the sudden rise of water level associated with river ice jams.

Spangler, Tim

2006-11-01

227

Flood Cleanup  

MedlinePLUS

... Flood Cleanup During a flood cleanup, the indoor air quality in your home or office may appear to ... additional resources: Fact Sheet: Flood Cleanup - Avoiding Indoor Air Quality Problems (PDF) (2 pp, 57 K, about PDF ) ...

228

A methodology for urban flood resilience assessment  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In Europe, river floods have been increasing in frequency and severity [Szöllösi-Nagy and Zevenbergen, 2005]. Moreover, climate change is expected to exacerbate the frequency and intensity of hydro meteorological disaster [IPCC, 2007]. Despite efforts made to maintain the flood defense assets, we often observe levee failures leading to finally increase flood risk in protected area. Furthermore, flood forecasting models, although benefiting continuous improvements, remain partly inaccurate due to uncertainties arising all along data calculation processes. In the same time, the year 2007 marks a turning point in history: half of the world population now lives in cities (UN-Habitat, 2007). Moreover, the total urban population is expected to double from two to four billion over the next 30 to 35 years (United Nations, 2006). This growing rate is equivalent to the creation of a new city of one million inhabitants every week, and this during the next four decades [Flood resilience Group]. So, this quick urban development coupled with technical failures and climate change have increased flood risk and corresponding challenges to urban flood risk management [Ashley et al., 2007], [Nie et al., 2009]. These circumstances oblige to manage flood risk by integrating new concepts like urban resilience. In recent years, resilience has become a central concept for risk management. This concept has emerged because a more resilient system is less vulnerable to risk and, therefore, more sustainable [Serre et al., 2010]. But urban flood resilience is a concept that has not yet been directly assessed. Therefore, when decision makers decide to use the resilience concept to manage urban flood, they have no tool to help them. That is why this paper proposes a methodology to assess urban flood resilience in order to make this concept operational. Networks affect the well-being of the people and the smooth functioning of services and, more generally, of economical activities. Yet, multiple networks that innervate the city are particularly sensitive to flooding, through their structures and geographic constraints. Because societal functions are highly dependent on networked systems and the operability of these systems can be vulnerable to disasters, there is a need to understand how networked systems are resilient. That is why, considering that networks can be regarded as the "flood gateway" [Lhomme et al., 2009], we will focus on the resilience assessment of these critical networks before urban resilience assessment. The first part of this paper introduce resilience concept to well understand the importance of this concept to manage flood risk and of assessing this resilience. In a second part, this paper presents the use of safety methods to model network system dysfunctions during flood and then to produce resilience indicators. Finally it presents use of graph theory to assess adaptive capacity of these networks. These researches are the first steps toward the development of a GIS tool to optimize preparedness and recovery after a flood event.

Lhomme, Serge; Serre, Damien; Diab, Youssef; Laganier, Richard

2010-05-01

229

Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy  

Microsoft Academic Search

The focus of this report is the wind forecasting system developed during this contract period with results of performance through the end of 2010. The report is intentionally high-level, with technical details disseminated at various conferences and academic papers. At the end of 2010, Xcel Energy managed the output of 3372 megawatts of installed wind energy. The wind plants span

K. Parks; Y. H. Wan; G. Wiener; Y. Liu

2011-01-01

230

Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy  

SciTech Connect

The focus of this report is the wind forecasting system developed during this contract period with results of performance through the end of 2010. The report is intentionally high-level, with technical details disseminated at various conferences and academic papers. At the end of 2010, Xcel Energy managed the output of 3372 megawatts of installed wind energy. The wind plants span three operating companies1, serving customers in eight states2, and three market structures3. The great majority of the wind energy is contracted through power purchase agreements (PPAs). The remainder is utility owned, Qualifying Facilities (QF), distributed resources (i.e., 'behind the meter'), or merchant entities within Xcel Energy's Balancing Authority footprints. Regardless of the contractual or ownership arrangements, the output of the wind energy is balanced by Xcel Energy's generation resources that include fossil, nuclear, and hydro based facilities that are owned or contracted via PPAs. These facilities are committed and dispatched or bid into day-ahead and real-time markets by Xcel Energy's Commercial Operations department. Wind energy complicates the short and long-term planning goals of least-cost, reliable operations. Due to the uncertainty of wind energy production, inherent suboptimal commitment and dispatch associated with imperfect wind forecasts drives up costs. For example, a gas combined cycle unit may be turned on, or committed, in anticipation of low winds. The reality is winds stayed high, forcing this unit and others to run, or be dispatched, to sub-optimal loading positions. In addition, commitment decisions are frequently irreversible due to minimum up and down time constraints. That is, a dispatcher lives with inefficient decisions made in prior periods. In general, uncertainty contributes to conservative operations - committing more units and keeping them on longer than may have been necessary for purposes of maintaining reliability. The downside is costs are higher. In organized electricity markets, units that are committed for reliability reasons are paid their offer price even when prevailing market prices are lower. Often, these uplift charges are allocated to market participants that caused the inefficient dispatch in the first place. Thus, wind energy facilities are burdened with their share of costs proportional to their forecast errors. For Xcel Energy, wind energy uncertainty costs manifest depending on specific market structures. In the Public Service of Colorado (PSCo), inefficient commitment and dispatch caused by wind uncertainty increases fuel costs. Wind resources participating in the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) footprint make substantial payments in the real-time markets to true-up their day-ahead positions and are additionally burdened with deviation charges called a Revenue Sufficiency Guarantee (RSG) to cover out of market costs associated with operations. Southwest Public Service (SPS) wind plants cause both commitment inefficiencies and are charged Southwest Power Pool (SPP) imbalance payments due to wind uncertainty and variability. Wind energy forecasting helps mitigate these costs. Wind integration studies for the PSCo and Northern States Power (NSP) operating companies have projected increasing costs as more wind is installed on the system due to forecast error. It follows that reducing forecast error would reduce these costs. This is echoed by large scale studies in neighboring regions and states that have recommended adoption of state-of-the-art wind forecasting tools in day-ahead and real-time planning and operations. Further, Xcel Energy concluded reduction of the normalized mean absolute error by one percent would have reduced costs in 2008 by over $1 million annually in PSCo alone. The value of reducing forecast error prompted Xcel Energy to make substantial investments in wind energy forecasting research and development.

Parks, K.; Wan, Y. H.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.

2011-10-01

231

Flood early warning along the East Coast of Scotland and the Storm of December 2012  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flood warning is at the heart of improved approaches to flood risk management in Scotland. The Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) is committed to reducing the impact of coastal flooding through the provision of reliable and timely flood warnings. They have specifically set out a programme of enhancing coastal flood forecasting through modelling and improved understanding of coastal flooding processes and improved approaches to wind and wave forecasting in coastal and tidal waters. In 2011, SEPA commissioned a project to develop a flood forecasting and warning system for the Firths of Forth and Tay along Scotland's North East coast. The new approach to flood forecasting has just been implemented into the Flood Early Warning System (FEWS) (Cranston and Tavendale, 2012) to contribute to the real-time flood forecasting and warning service from November 2012. The new system enables the prediction of coastal and tidal flooding and allows SEPA to warn people about potential flooding, using the latest advances in coastal modelling. The approach to the forecasting system includes: the transformation of tidal surge forecasts from Leith to 28 flood warning sites along the coast and inside the Firths of Forth and Tay; the transformation of offshore wave forecasts to inshore locations including the Firths of Forth and Tay; and the transformation of inshore wave forecasts to mean wave overtopping forecasts at six key communities at risk. In December 2012, some communities along the east coast of Scotland experienced their most severe storm damage since the Great 1953 Storm. This paper will discuss how the flood forecasting system was developed and how the system was utilised in real time during the recent storm. References Cranston, M. D. and Tavendale, A. C. W. (2012) Advances in operational flood forecasting in Scotland. Proceedings of the ICE - Water Management, 165, 2, 79-87.

Cranston, Michael; Hu, Keming

2013-04-01

232

FLOOD! Engineered Flood Controls  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

The Advanced Technology Environmental and Energy Center (ATEEC) provides this learning module on the theme of flood management. The unit "contains a variety of offerings for a unit on flood engineering controls including background information, outside resources and three learning activities." A number of activities are included which would be useful for environmental engineering students. Users must download this resource for viewing, which requires a free log-in. There is no cost to download the item. The unit is available in a ZIP file, which contains the individual lesson items.

2012-11-27

233

Estimating monetary damages from flooding under a changing climate  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Extreme precipitation events will very likely become both more frequent and more extreme under a changing climate. It follows that monetary damages from flooding are also likely to increase; yet translating forecast changes in precipitation to changes in flood damages becomes increasingly difficult as the spatial scale of analysis increases. Our goal was to develop a method for estimating changes in monetary damages from flooding under a changing climate at the national scale. To do this, we compiled precipitation and flood damage data from the 99 ASRs in the continental U.S. (a spatial scale intermediate between 4-digit and 2-digit HUCs), and used statistical modeling to quantify relationships between these variables at the scale of the 18 water resource regions (WRRs) in the U.S. Data on flood damages were obtained from the National climatic Data Center (NCDC) storms database, for the years 1993-2008. Each entry in the database includes the date on which the flood occurred; the county in which it occurred; and the crop damage, property damage, and total damage in dollars associated with the flood event. All dollar values were updated to 2007 dollars using annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) values. Counties were matched to corresponding ASRs, from which all available precipitation station data were downloaded for the same period. A logistic regression model was then used to model the probability of a flood exceeding a specified magnitude of monetary damages, by WRR. Independent variables in the model included the median precipitation across the ASR on that day, the standard deviation of precipitation in the ASR on that day, the total 1-day, 3-day, and 5-day precipitation in the ASR (measured as the sum of precipitation at all stations on the previous days), the season, and the interaction of season with median, standard deviation, and total 1-, 3-, and 5-day precipitation. Separate models were estimated for each WRR under baseline conditions, and flood damages under future climates were then modeled using a range of future precipitation scenarios. The models generally show a positive relationship between median and total precipitation and the probability of a damaging flood occurring. Seasonality also plays a very significant role, although this varies substantially across WRRs. Preliminary results indicate that monetary damages from floods are likely to increase in nearly all regions of the United States, but that changes in damages are not uniformly distributed across the nation.

Wobus, C. W.; Lawson, M.; Smith, J. B.; Jones, R.; Morlando, S.

2011-12-01

234

Flood preparedness and emergency management: people-centred approach in integrated flood risk management  

Microsoft Academic Search

Flood preparedness and flood emergency management strengthening remain core elements of MRC's Flood Management and Mitigation Programme (FMMP), as these directly address the needs of flood vulnerable communities, and also indicate\\/guide the strengthening and operations of government agencies in the Member Countries (at different levels: national, provincial, district and commune) and of national and international NGOs. This is vital for

Aslam Perwaiz

235

Historic Structure Report, Johnstown Flood National Memorial, Elias J. Unger House, Pennsylvania.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The National Park Service intends to restore the exterior and adaptively reuse the interior of the Unger House for park offices, with an addition at the basement level to accommodate a visitor center. Several alternative treatments for the Unger House hav...

E. S. Rayburn H. D. Unrau

1986-01-01

236

Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part I: Forecast uncertainty  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In Bavaria, operational flood forecasting has been established since the disastrous flood of 1999. Nowadays, forecasts based on rainfall information from about 700 raingauges and 600 rivergauges are calculated and issued for nearly 100 rivergauges. With the added experience of the 2002 and 2005 floods, awareness grew that the standard deterministic forecast, neglecting the uncertainty associated with each forecast is misleading, creating a false feeling of unambiguousness. As a consequence, a system to identify, quantify and communicate the sources and magnitude of forecast uncertainty has been developed, which will be presented in part I of this study. In this system, the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts plays a key role which will be presented in part II. Developing the system, several constraints stemming from the range of hydrological regimes and operational requirements had to be met: Firstly, operational time constraints obviate the variation of all components of the modeling chain as would be done in a full Monte Carlo simulation. Therefore, an approach was chosen where only the most relevant sources of uncertainty were dynamically considered while the others were jointly accounted for by static error distributions from offline analysis. Secondly, the dominant sources of uncertainty vary over the wide range of forecasted catchments: In alpine headwater catchments, typically of a few hundred square kilometers in size, rainfall forecast uncertainty is the key factor for forecast uncertainty, with a magnitude dynamically changing with the prevailing predictability of the atmosphere. In lowland catchments encompassing several thousands of square kilometers, forecast uncertainty in the desired range (usually up to two days) is mainly dependent on upstream gauge observation quality, routing and unpredictable human impact such as reservoir operation. The determination of forecast uncertainty comprised the following steps: a) From comparison of gauge observations and several years of archived forecasts, overall empirical error distributions termed 'overall error' were for each gauge derived for a range of relevant forecast lead times. b) The error distributions vary strongly with the hydrometeorological situation, therefore a subdivision into the hydrological cases 'low flow, 'rising flood', 'flood', flood recession' was introduced. c) For the sake of numerical compression, theoretical distributions were fitted to the empirical distributions using the method of moments. Here, the normal distribution was generally best suited. d) Further data compression was achieved by representing the distribution parameters as a function (second-order polynome) of lead time. In general, the 'overall error' obtained from the above procedure is most useful in regions where large human impact occurs and where the influence of the meteorological forecast is limited. In upstream regions however, forecast uncertainty is strongly dependent on the current predictability of the atmosphere, which is contained in the spread of an ensemble forecast. Including this dynamically in the hydrological forecast uncertainty estimation requires prior elimination of the contribution of the weather forecast to the 'overall error'. This was achieved by calculating long series of hydrometeorological forecast tests, where rainfall observations were used instead of forecasts. The resulting error distribution is termed 'model error' and can be applied on hydrological ensemble forecasts, where ensemble rainfall forecasts are used as forcing. The concept will be illustrated by examples (good and bad ones) covering a wide range of catchment sizes, hydrometeorological regimes and quality of hydrological model calibration. The methodology to combine the static and dynamic shares of uncertainty will be presented in part II of this study.

Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

2009-04-01

237

Restoring straightened rivers for sustainable flood mitigation  

Microsoft Academic Search

Purpose – This article aims to show how communities with severe river flooding can develop sustainable flood plans that remediate environmental problems caused by previous river straightening and other structural flood controls. Design\\/methodology\\/approach – The article builds on a case study of the nationally recognized Napa River Flood Protection Project (USA), which incorporates an ecological living river strategy and builds

Vanessa Bechtol; Lucie Laurian

2005-01-01

238

Flood-inundation maps for the Driftwood River and Sugar Creek near Edinburgh, Indiana  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Digital flood-inundation maps for an 11.2 mile reach of the Driftwood River and a 5.2 mile reach of Sugar Creek, both near Edinburgh, Indiana, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Camp Atterbury Joint Maneuver Training Center, Edinburgh, Indiana. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/, depict estimates of the areal extent of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage 03363000 Driftwood River near Edinburgh, Ind. Current conditions at the USGS streamgage in Indiana may be obtained on the Internet at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/in/nwis/current/?type=flow. In addition, the information has been provided to the National Weather Service (NWS) for incorporation into their Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) flood warning system at http://water.weather.gov/ahps/. The NWS forecasts flood hydrographs at many places that are often collocated at USGS streamgages. That forecasted peak-stage information, also available on the Internet, may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. For this study, flood profiles were computed for the stream reaches by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The model was calibrated using the most current stage-discharge relations at the USGS streamgage 03363000 Driftwood River near Edinburgh, Ind. The hydraulic model was then used to determine elevations throughout the study reaches for nine water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-ft intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from bankfull to nearly the highest recorded water level at the USGS streamgage 03363000 Driftwood River near Edinburgh, Ind. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geospatial digital elevation model (derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data) in order to delineate the area flooded at each water level. The availability of these maps along with real-time information available online regarding current stage from USGS streamgages and forecasted stream stages from the NWS provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures as well as for post flood recovery efforts.

Fowler, Kathleen K.; Kim, Moon H.; Menke, Chad D.

2012-01-01

239

Flood-inundation maps for the White River at Newberry, Indiana  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 4.9-mile reach of the White River at Newberry, Indiana (Ind.), were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Indiana Office of Community and Rural Affairs. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation, depict estimates of the areal extent of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at USGS streamgage 03360500, White River at Newberry, Ind. Current conditions at the USGS streamgage may be obtained on the Internet (http://waterdata.usgs.gov/in/nwis/uv?site_no=03360500). The National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts flood hydrographs at the Newberry streamgage. That forecasted peak-stage information, also available on the Internet, may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. For this study, flood profiles were computed for the White River reach by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The hydraulic model was calibrated by using the most current stage-discharge relation at USGS streamgage 03360500, White River at Newberry, Ind., and high-water marks from a flood in June 2008.The calibrated hydraulic model was then used to determine 22 water-surface profiles for flood stages a1-foot intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from bankfull to approximately the highest recorded water level at the streamgage. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model (derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data) in order to delineate the area flooded at each water level. The availability of these maps, along with Internet information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgage at Newberry, Ind., and forecasted stream stages from the NWS, provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures as well as for post-flood recovery efforts.

Fowler, Kathleen K.; Kim, Moon H.; Menke, Chad D.

2012-01-01

240

Flood-inundation maps for the Iroquois River at Rensselaer, Indiana  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 4.0-mile reach of the Iroquois River at Rensselaer, Indiana (Ind.), were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Indiana Department of Transportation. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/, depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at USGS streamgage 05522500, Iroquois River at Rensselaer, Ind. Current conditions for estimating near-real-time areas of inundation using USGS streamgage information may be obtained on the Internet at (http://waterdata.usgs.gov/in/nwis/uv?site_no=05522500). In addition, the National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts flood hydrographs at the Rensselaer streamgage. That forecasted peak-stage information, also available on the Internet (http://water.weather.gov/ahps/), may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. For this study, flood profiles were computed for the Iroquois River reach by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The hydraulic model was calibrated by using the most current (June 27, 2012) stage-discharge relations at USGS streamgage 05522500, Iroquois River at Rensselaer, Ind., and high-water marks from the flood of July 2003. The calibrated hydraulic model was then used to determine nine water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-foot intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from bankfull to the highest stage of the current stage-discharge rating curve. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a Geographic Information System digital elevation model (derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data) in order to delineate the area flooded at each water level. The availability of these maps, along with Internet information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgage at Rensselaer, Ind., and forecasted stream stages from the NWS, provides emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for post-flood recovery efforts.

Fowler, Kathleen K.; Bunch, Aubrey R.

2013-01-01

241

Flood-inundation maps for the Saddle River from Rochelle Park to Lodi, New Jersey, 2012  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 2.75-mile reach of the Saddle River from 0.2 mile upstream from the Interstate 80 bridge in Rochelle Park to 1.5 miles downstream from the U.S. Route 46 bridge in Lodi, New Jersey, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP). The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation, depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage at Saddle River at Lodi, New Jersey (station 01391500). Current conditions for estimating near real-time areas of inundation using USGS streamgage information may be obtained on the Internet at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv?site_no=01391500. The National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts flood hydrographs at many places that are often collocated with USGS streamgages. NWS-forecasted peak-stage information may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. In this study, flood profiles were computed for the stream reach by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The model was calibrated using the most current stage-discharge relations at the Saddle River at Lodi, New Jersey streamgage and documented high-water marks from recent floods. The hydraulic model was then used to determine 11 water-surface profiles for flood stages at the Saddle River streamgage at 1-ft intervals referenced to the streamgage datum, North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88), and ranging from bankfull, 0.5 ft below NWS Action Stage, to the extent of the stage-discharge rating, which is approximately 1 ft higher than the highest recorded water level at the streamgage. Action Stage is the stage which when reached by a rising stream the NWS or a partner needs to take some type of mitigation action in preparation for possible significant hydrologic activity. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system 3-meter (9.84-ft) digital elevation model (derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data) in order to delineate the area flooded at each water level. The availability of these maps, along with Internet information regarding current stage from USGS streamgages and forecasted stream stages from the NWS, provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities, such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for post-flood recovery efforts.

Hoppe, Heidi L.; Watson, Kara M.

2012-01-01

242

Flood monitoring over the Mackenzie River Basin using passive microwave data  

Microsoft Academic Search

Flooding over the Mackenzie River Basin, which is situated in northwestern Canada, is a complex and rapid process. This process is mainly controlled by the occurrence of ice jams. Flood forecasting is of very important in mitigating social and economic damage. This study investigates the potential of a rating curve model for flood forecasting. The proposed approach is based on

Marouane Temimi; Robert Leconte; Francois Brissette; Naira Chaouch

2005-01-01

243

NWS (National Weather Service) Watch/Warning Verification Flash Flood, Winter Storm, and High Wind, January 1980-June 1986.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The study presents flash flood, winter storm, and high wind watch and warning statistics of lead time, probability of detection, false alarm ratio, and critical success index. The period of record is 1980 through 1985 for flash floods and 1980 through Jun...

R. E. LaPlante

1987-01-01

244

Potential flood and debris hazards at Katherine Landing and Telephone Cove, Lake Mead National Recreation Area, Mohave County, Arizona  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Katherine Landing is a recreation site on the east shore of Lake Mohave, an impoundment on the Colorado River southeast of Las Vegas, Nevada. With proper inspection and maintenance, the present (1979) channel and diking system at Katherine Landing is judged adequate to confine and restrain floods up to and including the 100-yr flood. In contrast, the 500-yr flood probably would not be confined by some parts of the diking system. The Telephone Cove area, traversed by North and South Telephone Cove Washes, is hazardous for all floods, especially for the 100-yr and more severe floods. Determinations of peak discharge are based on streamflow regression analyses, and channel capacities are based on field surveys of channel-flow capacities. The extreme flood - a flood meteorologically and hydrologically possible but so rare as to preclude a frequency estimate - could cause great damage and possible loss of life at both the Katherine Landing and the Telephone Cove sites. The present dikes would be topped or breached by extreme flooding. (USGS)

Moosburner, Otto

1988-01-01

245

Heavy flooding effects on home range and habitat selection of free-ranging Iberian hares ( Lepus granatensis ) in Doñana National Park (SW Spain)  

Microsoft Academic Search

The Iberian hare Lepus granatensis is a common and abundant species throughout the Iberian Peninsula; however, studies documenting its ecology are scarce. Between\\u000a August 1996 and September 1997, after a long drought, we studied the effects of a widespread flood on the Iberian hare ecology\\u000a in ecotone pastures of Doñana National Park. Hares were captured using vertical nets through part

Francisco Carro; Ramón C. Soriguer; J. F. Beltrán; Ana C. Andreu

246

Communicating uncertainty in hydrological forecasts: mission impossible?  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cascading uncertainty in meteo-hydrological modelling chains for forecasting and integrated flood risk assessment is an essential step to improve the quality of hydrological forecasts. Although the best methodology to quantify the total predictive uncertainty in hydrology is still debated, there is a common agreement that one must avoid uncertainty misrepresentation and miscommunication, as well as misinterpretation of information by users. Several recent studies point out that uncertainty, when properly explained and defined, is no longer unwelcome among emergence response organizations, users of flood risk information and the general public. However, efficient communication of uncertain hydro-meteorological forecasts is far from being a resolved issue. This study focuses on the interpretation and communication of uncertain hydrological forecasts based on (uncertain) meteorological forecasts and (uncertain) rainfall-runoff modelling approaches to decision-makers such as operational hydrologists and water managers in charge of flood warning and scenario-based reservoir operation. An overview of the typical flow of uncertainties and risk-based decisions in hydrological forecasting systems is presented. The challenges related to the extraction of meaningful information from probabilistic forecasts and the test of its usefulness in assisting operational flood forecasting are illustrated with the help of two case-studies: 1) a study on the use and communication of probabilistic flood forecasting within the European Flood Alert System; 2) a case-study on the use of probabilistic forecasts by operational forecasters from the hydroelectricity company EDF in France. These examples show that attention must be paid to initiatives that promote or reinforce the active participation of expert forecasters in the forecasting chain. The practice of face-to-face forecast briefings, focusing on sharing how forecasters interpret, describe and perceive the model output forecasted scenarios, is essential. We believe that the efficient communication of uncertainty in hydro-meteorological forecasts is not a mission impossible. Questions remaining unanswered in probabilistic hydrological forecasting should not neutralize the goal of such a mission, and the suspense kept should instead act as a catalyst for overcoming the remaining challenges.

Ramos, Maria-Helena; Mathevet, Thibault; Thielen, Jutta; Pappenberger, Florian

2010-05-01

247

Navigating a Path Toward Operational, Short-term, Ensemble Based, Probablistic Streamflow Forecasts  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The National Weather Service (NWS) has federal responsibility for issuing public flood warnings in the United States. Additionally, the NWS has been engaged in longer range water resources forecasts for many years, particularly in the Western U.S. In the past twenty years, longer range forecasts have increasingly incorporated ensemble techniques. Ensemble techniques are attractive because they allow a great deal of flexibility, both temporally and in content. This technique also provides for the influence of additional forcings (i.e. ENSO), through either pre or post processing techniques. More recently, attention has turned to the use of ensemble techniques in the short-term streamflow forecasting process. While considerably more difficult, the development of reliable short-term probabilistic streamflow forecasts has clear application and value for many NWS customers and partners. During flood episodes, expensive mitigation actions are initialed or withheld and critical reservoir management decisions are made in the absence of uncertainty and risk information. Limited emergency services resources and the optimal use of water resources facilities necessitates the development of a risk-based decision making process. The development of reliable short-term probabilistic streamflow forecasts are an essential ingredient in the decision making process. This paper addresses the utility of short-term ensemble streamflow forecasts and the considerations that must be addressed as techniques and operational capabilities are developed. Verification and validation information are discussed from both a scientific and customer perspective. Education and training related to the interpretation and use of ensemble products are also addressed.

Hartman, R. K.; Schaake, J.

2004-12-01

248

Flood-inundation maps for the Wabash River at Terre Haute, Indiana  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 6.3-mi reach of the Wabash River from 0.1 mi downstream of the Interstate 70 bridge to 1.1 miles upstream of the Route 63 bridge, Terre Haute, Indiana, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Indiana Department of Transportation. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/, depict estimates of the areal extent of flooding corresponding to select water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage Wabash River at Terre Haute (station number 03341500). Current conditions at the USGS streamgage may be obtained on the Internet from the USGS National Water Information System (http://waterdata.usgs.gov/in/nwis/uv/?site_no=03341500&agency_cd=USGS&p"). In addition, the same data are provided to the National Weather Service (NWS) for incorporation into their Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) flood warning system (http://water.weather.gov/ahps//). Within this system, the NWS forecasts flood hydrographs for the Wabash River at Terre Haute that may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. In this study, flood profiles were computed for the stream reach by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The model was calibrated using the most current stage-discharge relation at the Wabash River at the Terre Haute streamgage. The hydraulic model was then used to compute 22 water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-ft interval referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from bank-full to approximately the highest recorded water level at the streamgage. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model (derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data having a 0.37-ft vertical accuracy and a 1.02-ft horizontal accuracy) to delineate the area flooded at each water level. The availability of these maps along with Internet information regarding the current stage from the USGS streamgage and forecasted stream stages from the NWS can provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures as well as for post flood recovery efforts.

Lombard, Pamela J.

2013-01-01

249

Flood-inundation maps for the East Fork White River at Columbus, Indiana  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 5.4-mile reach of the East Fork White River at Columbus, Indiana, from where the Flatrock and Driftwood Rivers combine to make up East Fork White River to just upstream of the confluence of Clifty Creek with the East Fork White River, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Indiana Department of Transportation. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation, depict estimates of the areal extent of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at USGS streamgage 03364000, East Fork White River at Columbus, Indiana. Current conditions at the USGS streamgage may be obtained on the Internet from the USGS National Water Information System (http://waterdata.usgs.gov/in/nwis/uv/?site_no=03364000&agency_cd=USGS&). The National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts flood hydrographs for the East Fork White River at Columbus, Indiana at their Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) flood warning system Website (http://water.weather.gov/ahps/), that may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. In this study, flood profiles were computed for the stream reach by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The hydraulic model was calibrated by using the most current stage-discharge relation at USGS streamgage 03364000, East Fork White River at Columbus, Indiana. The calibrated hydraulic model was then used to determine 15 water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-foot (ft) intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from bankfull to approximately the highest recorded water level at the streamgage. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model (derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data), having a 0.37-ft vertical accuracy and a 1.02 ft horizontal accuracy), in order to delineate the area flooded at each water level. The availability of these maps, along with Internet information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgage at Columbus, Indiana, and forecasted stream stages from the NWS will provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures as well as for post-flood recovery efforts.

Lombard, Pamela J.

2013-01-01

250

Real-time correction of water stage forecast during rainstorm events using combination of forecast errors  

Microsoft Academic Search

This study proposes a real-time error correction method for the forecasted water stage using a combination of forecast errors\\u000a estimated by the time series models, AR(1), AR(2), MA(1) and MA(2), and the average deviation model to update the water stage\\u000a forecast during rainstorm events. During flood forecasting and warning operations, the proposed real-time error correction\\u000a method takes advantage of being

Shiang-Jen Wu; Ho-Cheng Lien; Che-Hao Chang; Jhih-Cyuan Shen

251

44 CFR 67.4 - Proposed flood elevation determination.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

...2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Proposed flood elevation determination. 67.4 Section... INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program APPEALS FROM PROPOSED FLOOD ELEVATION DETERMINATIONS § 67.4...

2011-10-01

252

The National Flood Insurance Program and Coastal Real Estate Development: The Experience of Westerly, Charlestown, and South Kingstown, Rhode Island.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The predominant force influencing sales and development of beach properties in Westerly, Charlestown, and South Kingston, R.I. is the availability of direct financing of such properties as a result of the availability of flood insurance. Bankers and realt...

H. C. Miller

1975-01-01

253

44 CFR 65.14 - Remapping of areas for which local flood protection systems no longer provide base flood protection.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

... false Remapping of areas for which local flood protection systems no longer provide base flood protection. 65.14 Section 65.14 ...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IDENTIFICATION AND...

2009-10-01

254

44 CFR 65.14 - Remapping of areas for which local flood protection systems no longer provide base flood protection.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

... false Remapping of areas for which local flood protection systems no longer provide base flood protection. 65.14 Section 65.14 ...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IDENTIFICATION AND...

2010-10-01

255

FLOOD! Natural Flood Controls  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

The Advanced Technology Environmental and Energy Center (ATEEC) provides this learning module on the theme of flood management. The unit "contains a set of activities that ask students to investigate the characteristics of drainage basins of rivers in order to understand the relationships between landscape and the movement of water across the landscape surface." Users must download this resource for viewing, which requires a free log-in. There is no cost to download the item. The unit is available in a ZIP file, which contains the individual lesson items.

2012-11-27

256

Forecasting inflation  

Microsoft Academic Search

This paper investigates forecasts of US inflation at the 12-month horizon. The starting point is the conventional unemployment rate Phillips curve, which is examined in a simulated out-of-sample forecasting framework. Inflation forecasts produced by the Phillips curve generally have been more accurate than forecasts based on other macroeconomic variables, including interest rates, money and commodity prices. These forecasts can however

James H. Stock; Mark W. Watson

1999-01-01

257

The use of SHAVE and NWS flash flood reports for impact characterization and prediction  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surveys have been undertaken in the US to report flash flood events, including details about their magnitude and spatio-temporal extent. The first dataset is National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Data, which consists of trained spotter reports. The second comes from the Severe Hazards Analysis and Verification Experiment (SHAVE) conducted at the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) in Norman, Oklahoma [Gourley et al., 2010]. The SHAVE dataset is based on a near real-time public survey. This study provides an impact classification and analysis of these datasets to 1) improve our understanding of the different types of flash flood impacts in terms of their magnitudes and spatiotemporal characteristics, and to 2) evaluate the skill of three tools used in the US for flash flood forecasting (Flash Flood Guidance [FFG], Gridded-FFG [GFFG] and the Distributed Hydrological Model-Threshold Frequency [DHM-TF]) to predict these impacts. SHAVE impacts are analyzed in a spatio-contextual framework based on public responses to the survey questions, as well as GIS-sampled spatial attributes. This analysis showed consistent results, indicating that the impact classification was made correctly and that the SHAVE dataset (even when based on uncertain responses from the general public) is a reliable tool for flash flood characterisation. Then, for two extreme flash floods in Oklahoma, FFG, GFFG, and DHM-TF are evaluated on a YES/NO-forecast basis, but also as function of impacts, thus presenting a first example on the use of these impact-enhanced flash flood datasets.

Calianno, M.; Ruin, I.; Gourley, J. J.

2012-04-01

258

The Significance of Shifts in Precipitation Patterns: Modelling the Impacts of Climate Change and Glacier Retreat on Extreme Flood Events in Denali National Park, Alaska  

PubMed Central

In glacier-fed systems climate change may have various effects over a range of time scales, including increasing river discharge, flood frequency and magnitude. This study uses a combination of empirical monitoring and modelling to project the impacts of climate change on the glacial-fed Middle Fork Toklat River, Denali National Park, Alaska. We use a regional calibration of the model HBV to account for a paucity of long term observed flow data, validating a local application using glacial mass balance data and summer flow records. Two Global Climate Models (HADCM3 and CGCM2) and two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B2) are used to ascertain potential changes in meteorological conditions, river discharge, flood frequency and flood magnitude. Using remote sensing methods this study refines existing estimates of glacial recession rates, finding that since 2000, rates have increased from 24m per year to 68.5m per year, with associated increases in ablation zone ice loss. GCM projections indicate that over the 21st century these rates will increase still further, most extensively under the CGCM2 model, and A2 scenarios. Due to greater winter precipitation and ice and snow accumulation, glaciers release increasing meltwater quantities throughout the 21st century. Despite increases in glacial melt, results indicate that it is predominantly precipitation that affects river discharge. Three of the four IPCC scenarios project increases in flood frequency and magnitude, events which were primarily associated with changing precipitation patterns, rather than extreme temperature increases or meltwater release. Results suggest that although increasing temperatures will significantly increase glacial melt and winter baseflow, meltwater alone does not pose a significant flood hazard to the Toklat River catchment. Projected changes in precipitation are the primary concern, both through changing snow volumes available for melt, and more directly through increasing catchment runoff.

Crossman, Jill; Futter, Martyn N.; Whitehead, Paul G.

2013-01-01

259

The significance of shifts in precipitation patterns: modelling the impacts of climate change and glacier retreat on extreme flood events in denali national park, alaska.  

PubMed

In glacier-fed systems climate change may have various effects over a range of time scales, including increasing river discharge, flood frequency and magnitude. This study uses a combination of empirical monitoring and modelling to project the impacts of climate change on the glacial-fed Middle Fork Toklat River, Denali National Park, Alaska. We use a regional calibration of the model HBV to account for a paucity of long term observed flow data, validating a local application using glacial mass balance data and summer flow records. Two Global Climate Models (HADCM3 and CGCM2) and two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B2) are used to ascertain potential changes in meteorological conditions, river discharge, flood frequency and flood magnitude. Using remote sensing methods this study refines existing estimates of glacial recession rates, finding that since 2000, rates have increased from 24m per year to 68.5m per year, with associated increases in ablation zone ice loss. GCM projections indicate that over the 21(st) century these rates will increase still further, most extensively under the CGCM2 model, and A2 scenarios. Due to greater winter precipitation and ice and snow accumulation, glaciers release increasing meltwater quantities throughout the 21(st) century. Despite increases in glacial melt, results indicate that it is predominantly precipitation that affects river discharge. Three of the four IPCC scenarios project increases in flood frequency and magnitude, events which were primarily associated with changing precipitation patterns, rather than extreme temperature increases or meltwater release. Results suggest that although increasing temperatures will significantly increase glacial melt and winter baseflow, meltwater alone does not pose a significant flood hazard to the Toklat River catchment. Projected changes in precipitation are the primary concern, both through changing snow volumes available for melt, and more directly through increasing catchment runoff. PMID:24023925

Crossman, Jill; Futter, Martyn N; Whitehead, Paul G

2013-09-02

260

Flood Damage Abatement Study for Virginia.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The study gives a quick review of the national flood problem, a comprehensive review of the problem in Virginia, an identification of various programs which have attempted to ameliorate flood damages, and two major pieces of legislation recommended to be ...

W. R. Walker

1971-01-01

261

Belford proactive flood solutions: scientific evidence to influence local and national policy by multi-purpose runoff management  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The increased risk from flooding continues to be of concern to governments all around the world and flood protection is becoming more of a challenge. In the UK, climate change projections indicate more extremes within the weather systems. In addition, there is an increased demand for using land in urban areas beside channels. These developments both put pressure on our flood defences and there is a need for new solutions to managing flood risk. There is currently support within the England and Wales Environment Agency for sustainable flood management solutions such as storage ponds, wetlands, beaver dams and willow riparian features (referred to here as Runoff Attenuation Features, or RAFs). However the effectiveness of RAFs are not known at the catchment scale since they have only really been trailed at the plot scale. These types of mitigation measure can offer benefits to water quality and create ecological habitats. The village of Belford, situated in the Belford Burn catchment (6km2), northern England, has suffered from numerous flood events. In addition, the catchment suffers from water quality issues within the channel and high sediment loads are having an impact on the ecology of the nearby estuary. There was a desire by the Local Environment Agency Flood Levy team to deliver an alternative catchment-based solution to the problem. With funding from the Northumbria Regional Flood Defence Committee, the Environment Agency North East Local Levy team and Newcastle University have created a partnership to address the flood problem trailing soft engineered RAF’s at the catchment scale. The partnership project, “Belford proactive flood solutions” is testing novel techniques in reducing flood risk in small sub-catchments for the Environment Agency. The project provides the information needed to understand whether the multi-functional mitigation measures are working at the sub-catchment scale. Data suggest that the mitigation measures present have delayed the overall travel time of the flood peak in the catchment by 33%. The current maximum flood storage capacity of all the features stands at around 15,000 m3. The evidence also suggests that a dam like in-stream mitigation measure can significantly reduce sediment load. Other benefits of some mitigation features include large increase in the population of water voles over the past two years. The scheme also acts as a demonstration site for interested stakeholders where they can learn about this approach to flood risk management and see the multipurpose benefits. As the project has progressed and lessons have been learnt, it has been possible to develop a runoff management toolkit for implementing these mitigation measures in other catchments of similar size. Already, the local Environment Agency has utilised the tools and recently applied similar mitigation measures to other catchments. On-going modelling exercises in the project are using the data to explore the up-scaling of the features to larger catchments.

Wilkinson, M.; Quinn, P. F.; Jonczyk, J.

2010-12-01

262

Forecasting approaches to the Mekong River  

Microsoft Academic Search

Hydrologists distinguish between flood forecasts, which are concerned with events of the immediate future, and flood predictions, which are concerned with events that are possible, but whose date of occurrence is not determined. Although in principle both involve the determination of runoff from rainfall, the analytical approaches differ because of different objectives. The differences between the two approaches will be

E. J. Plate

2009-01-01

263

Feasibility of large-scale water monitoring and forecasting in the Asia-Pacific region  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The Asian-Pacific region (including China, India and Pakistan) is home to 51% of the global population. It accounts for 53% of agricultural and 32% of domestic water use world wide. Due to the influence of Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean circulation patterns, the region experiences strong inter-annual variations in water availability and occurrence of drought, flood and severe weather. Some of the countries in the region have national water monitoring or forecasting systems, but they are typically of fairly narrow scope. We investigated the feasibility and utility of an integrated regional water monitoring and forecasting system for water resources, floods and drought. In particular, we assessed the quality of information that can be achieved by relying on internationally available data sources, including numerical weather prediction (NWP) and satellite observations of precipitation, soil moisture and vegetation. Combining these data sources with a large scale hydrological model, we produced monitoring and forecast information for selected retrospective case studies. The information was compared to that from national systems, both in terms of information content and system characteristics (e.g. scope, data sources, and information latency). While national systems typically have better access to national observation systems, they do not always make effective use of the available data, science and technology. The relatively slow changing nature of important Pacific and Indian Ocean circulation patterns adds meaningful seasonal forecast skill for some regions. Satellite and NWP precipitation estimates can add considerable value to the national gauge networks: as forecasts, as near-real time observations and as historic reference data. Satellite observations of soil moisture and vegetation are valuable for drought monitoring and underutilised. Overall, we identify several important opportunities for better water monitoring and forecasting in the Asia-Pacific region.

van Dijk, A. I. J. M.; Peña-Arancibia, J. L.; Sardella, C. S. E.

2012-04-01

264

Estimated Flood-Inundation Mapping for the Upper Blue River, Indian Creek, and Dyke Branch in Kansas City, Missouri, 2006-08  

USGS Publications Warehouse

In the interest of improved public safety during flooding, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the city of Kansas City, Missouri, completed a flood-inundation study of the Blue River in Kansas City, Missouri, from the U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gage at Kenneth Road to 63rd Street, of Indian Creek from the Kansas-Missouri border to its mouth, and of Dyke Branch from the Kansas-Missouri border to its mouth, to determine the estimated extent of flood inundation at selected flood stages on the Blue River, Indian Creek, and Dyke Branch. The results of this study spatially interpolate information provided by U.S. Geological Survey gages, Kansas City Automated Local Evaluation in Real Time gages, and the National Weather Service flood-peak prediction service that comprise the Blue River flood-alert system and are a valuable tool for public officials and residents to minimize flood deaths and damage in Kansas City. To provide public access to the information presented in this report, a World Wide Web site (http://mo.water.usgs.gov/indep/kelly/blueriver) was created that displays the results of two-dimensional modeling between Hickman Mills Drive and 63rd Street, estimated flood-inundation maps for 13 flood stages, the latest gage heights, and National Weather Service stage forecasts for each forecast location within the study area. The results of a previous study of flood inundation on the Blue River from 63rd Street to the mouth also are available. In addition the full text of this report, all tables and maps are available for download (http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2008/5068). Thirteen flood-inundation maps were produced at 2-foot intervals for water-surface elevations from 763.8 to 787.8 feet referenced to the Blue River at the 63rd Street Automated Local Evaluation in Real Time stream gage operated by the city of Kansas City, Missouri. Each map is associated with gages at Kenneth Road, Blue Ridge Boulevard, Kansas City (at Bannister Road), U.S. Highway 71, and 63rd Street on the Blue River, and at 103rd Street on Indian Creek. The National Weather Service issues peak stage forecasts for Blue Ridge Boulevard, Kansas City (at Bannister Road), U.S. Highway 71, and 63rd Street during floods. A two-dimensional depth-averaged flow model simulated flooding within a hydraulically complex, 5.6-mile study reach of the Blue River between Hickman Mills Drive and 63rd Street. Hydraulic simulation of the study reach provided information for the estimated flood-inundation maps and water-velocity magnitude and direction maps. Flood profiles of the upper Blue River between the U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gage at Kenneth Road and Hickman Mills Drive were developed from water-surface elevations calculated using Federal Emergency Management Agency flood-frequency discharges and 2006 stage-discharge ratings at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gages. Flood profiles between Hickman Mills Drive and 63rd Street were developed from two-dimensional hydraulic modeling conducted for this study. Flood profiles of Indian Creek between the Kansas-Missouri border and the mouth were developed from water-surface elevations calculated using current stage-discharge ratings at the U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gage at 103rd Street, and water-surface slopes derived from Federal Emergency Management Agency flood-frequency stage-discharge relations. Mapped flood water-surface elevations at the mouth of Dyke Branch were set equal to the flood water-surface elevations of Indian Creek at the Dyke Branch mouth for all Indian Creek water-surface elevations; water-surface elevation slopes were derived from Federal Emergency Management Agency flood-frequency stage-discharge relations.

Kelly, Brian P.; Huizinga, Richard J.

2008-01-01

265

The Hat Yai 2000 flood: the worst flood in Thai history  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hat Yai, the largest commercial and tourist city in southern Thailand, is subjected to regular flood events, primarily during the northeast monsoon period. Flooding in this region is recognized as a serious disaster in terms of frequency, rate of risk, and affected areas. The monsoon of 21-25 November 2000 caused extremely heavy rain in the southern part of Thailand, resulting in a great flood occupying Hat Yai. This caused significant damage. Therefore, the use of both structural and non-structural measures is mandatory to reduce the economic losses and the risk for society. This paper investigates two modelling approaches for flood prevention and mitigation of Hat Yai city. First, a hard computing approach by a physically distributed model was applied to study the flood behaviour in a two-dimensional floodplain flow. Second, a soft computing approach using a neuro-genetic algorithm was used to develop a flood-forecasting tool. It was found that the great flood of 2000 can be simulated well by the FLO-2D model. Computed discharges and flood level in the floodplain are close to the observed data. Countermeasures using diversion canals are guaranteed to accelerate the floodwater drainage to Songkla Lake, significantly reducing the flood impact to the people. In addition, the flood forecasting technique developed in this study can give satisfactory results. This would be very useful as a flood-warning tool for the community

Supharatid, Seree

2006-02-01

266

Accident Risk Forecasting.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

This bibliography represents literature acquired since the establishment of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) in 1967, as related to accident forecasting. It is comprised of NHTSA contract reports, reports of other organizations c...

L. Flynn

1977-01-01

267

Flood-inundation maps for a nine-mile reach of the Des Plaines River from Riverwoods to Mettawa, Illinois  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 9-mile reach of the Des Plaines River from Riverwoods to Mettawa, Illinois, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Lake County Stormwater Management Commission and the Villages of Lincolnshire and Riverwoods. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/, depict estimates of the areal extent of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (gage heights) at the USGS streamgage at Des Plaines River at Lincolnshire, Illinois (station no. 05528100). Current conditions at the USGS streamgage may be obtained on the Internet at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/usa/nwis/uv?05528100. In addition, this streamgage is incorporated into the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) flood warning system (http://water.weather.gov/ahps/) by the National Weather Service (NWS). The NWS forecasts flood hydrographs at many places that are often co-located at USGS streamgages. The NWS forecasted peak-stage information, also shown on the Des Plaines River at Lincolnshire inundation Web site, may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. In this study, flood profiles were computed for the stream reach by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The hydraulic model was then used to determine seven water-surface profiles for flood stages at roughly 1-ft intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from the 50- to 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability flows. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a Geographic Information System (GIS) Digital Elevation Model (DEM) (derived from Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) data) in order to delineate the area flooded at each water level. These maps, along with information on the Internet regarding current gage height from USGS streamgages and forecasted stream stages from the NWS, provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for post-flood recovery efforts.

Murphy, Elizabeth A.; Soong, David T.; Sharpe, Jennifer B.

2012-01-01

268

Tracking the uncertainty in flood alerts driven by grand ensemble weather predictions  

Microsoft Academic Search

The incorporation of numerical weather predictions (NWP) into a flood warning system can increase forecast lead times from a few hours to a few days. A single NWP forecast from a single forecast centre, however, is insufficient as it involves considerable non-predictable uncertainties and can lead to a high number of false or missed warnings. Weather forecasts using multiple NWPs

Y. He; F. Wetterhall; H. L. Cloke; F. Pappenberger; M. Wilson; J. Freer; G. McGregor

2009-01-01

269

Macroeconomic forecasts and microeconomic forecasters  

Microsoft Academic Search

In the presence of principal-agent problems, published macroeconomic forecasts by professional economists may not measure expectations. Forecasters may use their forecasts in order to manipulate beliefs about their ability. I test a cross-sectional implication of models of reputation and information-revelation. I find that as forecasters become older and more established, they produce more radical forecasts. Since these more radical forecasts

Owen A. Lamont

2002-01-01

270

Health impacts of extreme weather: Flood fatalities in Texas  

Microsoft Academic Search

Floods are the leading cause of fatalities related to natural disasters in Texas. Texas leads the nation in flash flood fatalities. From 1959 through 2009 there were three times more fatalities in Texas (840) than the following state Pennsylvania (265). Texas also leads the nation in flood-related injuries (7753). Flood fatalities in Texas represent a serious public health problem. This

Hatim Osman Sharif

2009-01-01

271

Weather Forecasting  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Weather Forecasting is one of several online guides produced by the Weather World 2010 project at the University of Illinois. These guides use multimedia technology and the dynamic capabilities of the web to incorporate text, colorful diagrams, animations, computer simulations, audio, and video to introduce topics and concepts in the atmospheric sciences. This module introduces forecast methods and the numerous factors one must consider when attempting to make an accurate forecast. Sections include forecasting methods for different scenarios, surface features affecting forecasting, forecasting temperatures for day and night, and factors for forecasting precipitation.

2010-01-01

272

FLOOD EXTENT PREDICTION FROM LAKE HEIGHTS AND WATER LEVEL ESTIMATION FROM FLOOD EXTENTS USING RIVER GAUGES, ELEVATION MODELS AND ENVISAT DATA  

Microsoft Academic Search

Water levels and water extents are essential information in flood monitoring and forecasting. Two experimental and complementary ways were explored in order to estimate water level and water extent and forecast them: 1) The estimation of water level through combining water extents derived from earth observation data with elevation from a Digital Elevation Model; 2) The estimation of flood extents

ANDREOLI Rémi; YESOU Hervé; Bld Sébastien Brant

2007-01-01

273

Polymer flooding  

Microsoft Academic Search

This book covers all aspects of polymer flooding, an enhanced oil recovery method using water soluble polymers to increase the viscosity of flood water, for the displacement of crude oil from porous reservoir rocks. Although this method is becoming increasingly important, there is very little literature available for the engineer wishing to embark on such a project. In the past,

Littmann

1988-01-01

274

Hydrological simulation of extreme flood scenarios for operational flood management at the Middle Elbe river  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Operational flood management at the Middle Elbe river requires comprehensive knowledge about the magnitude and characteristics of possible extreme flood events. Since these events are not sufficiently included in available historical records, an extended sample of extreme flood events was generated by hydrological scenario simulation. Present paper emphasises simulations in the German part of the catchment of the Middle Elbe river and introduces the stochastic-conceptual precipitation-runoff model which was developed for this task. After validation of this model and its coupling with the weather forecast model COSMO and hydraulic-numerical models, a set of 25 flood scenarios could be simulated and provided for a planning of flood protection measures. Analysis of simulated scenarios reveal that extreme flood events at the Mulde and Middle Elbe rivers may have a wide spectrum of characteristics and may considerably exceed the magnitude of past flood events (e.g., those of August 2002).

Helms, M.; Ihringer, J.; Mikovec, R.

2012-12-01

275

Flooding in West Africa: An ASMET Project  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

The rainy season in Sahelian West Africa extends from June to September and is tied to the position of the intertropical front. During this period, mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) often produce significant rainfall that can lead to flooding. This module examines an extreme flooding event that occurred in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso from 31 August to 1 September 2009. Learners assume the role of forecaster, assessing meteorological conditions to see if an MSC will develop that can lead to heavy rain and flooding. They follow a forecast process that emphasizes the use of satellite data, standard surface and upper-air charts, and model output. The forecast process is tied to a conceptual model of the key thermodynamic features that drive convective activities in West Africa.

2012-01-11

276

Flood-inundation maps for the Saluda River from Old Easley Bridge Road to Saluda Lake Dam near Greenville, South Carolina  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 3.95-mile reach of the Saluda River from approximately 815 feet downstream from Old Easley Bridge Road to approximately 150 feet downstream from Saluda Lake Dam near Greenville, South Carolina, were developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/, depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage at Saluda River near Greenville, South Carolina (station 02162500). Current conditions at the USGS streamgage may be obtained through the National Water Information System Web site at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/sc/nwis/uv/?site_no=02162500&PARAmeter_cd=00065,00060,00062. The National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts flood hydrographs at many places that are often collocated with USGS streamgages. Forecasted peak-stage information is available on the Internet at the NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) flood-warning system Web site (http://water.weather.gov/ahps/) and may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation.In this study, flood profiles were computed for the stream reach by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The model was calibrated using the most current stage-streamflow relations at USGS streamgage station 02162500, Saluda River near Greenville, South Carolina. The hydraulic model was then used to determine water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1.0-foot intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from approximately bankfull to 2 feet higher than the highest recorded water level at the streamgage. The simulated water-surface profiles were then exported to a geographic information system, ArcGIS, and combined with a digital elevation model (derived from Light Detection and Ranging [LiDAR] data with a 0.6-foot vertical Root Mean Square Error [RMSE] and a 3.0-foot horizontal RMSE), using HEC-GeoRAS tools in order to delineate the area flooded at each water level. The availability of these maps, along with real-time stage data from the USGS streamgage station 02162500 and forecasted stream stages from the NWS, can provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical during flood-response and flood-recovery activities, such as evacuations, road closures, and disaster declarations.

Benedict, Stephen T.; Caldwell, Andral W.; Clark, Jimmy M.

2013-01-01

277

Development of a Peruvian National Environmental Forecasting Service, Volume 5. SIGAP Integrated Logistics Support Plan for CONADE. Task 4.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The purpose of the study was to carefully analyze the present state of the hydrometeorological forecasting service in Peru, and to make recommendations for their general modernization and enhancement. The study includes field studies, interviews and techn...

1996-01-01

278

Flood Estimation at Ungauged Sites Using a New Hybrid Model  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

As flood forecasting in ungauged basins has been an area of extensive research, new techniques have been introduced to minimize the forecast errors and to issue more accurate forecasts. The use of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) in flood forecasting is new and still in the evolution stage. In this study, MLP and Elman networks and also a new nonlinear regression model are applied and combined with each other for T-year flood estimation in western basins of Urmia Lake. At first, these networks used physiographic and climatic data selected from the regression model, to train. Finally, the best structure of the networks is chosen based on correlation coefficient between observed and estimated discharges. In order to train the models well, the return period variable is considered as one of the input variables of them. The obtained results have proved the ability of the hybrid model to predict T-year flood events and the effect of networks types on prediction precision.

Hassanpour Kashani, Mahsa; Montaseri, Majid; Lotfollahi Yaghin, Mohammad Ali

279

Tornado forecasting: A review  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Present-day operational tornado forecasting can be thought of in two parts: anticipation of tornadic potential in the storm environment and recognition of tornadic storms once they develop. The former is a forecasting issue, while the latter is associated with warnings (or so-called nowcasting). This paper focuses on the forecasting aspect of tornadoes by dealing primarily with the relationship between the tornadic storm and its environment (Recognition and detection issues are treated by Burgess et al. [this volume]). We begin with a short history of tornado forecasting and related research in section 2; in section 3 we provide an overview of current tornado forecasting procedures within the Severe Local Storms (SELS) Unit at the National Severe Storms Forecast Center (NSSFC). In section 4 we give a short summary of 35 years of SELS tornado and severe thunderstorm forecast verification. In section 5 we describe our current understanding of the connection between tornadoes and their environment. We conclude in section 6 with our thoughts about the future of tornado forecasting.

Doswell, Charles A., III; Weiss, Steven J.; Johns, Robert H.

280

Urbanization, climate change and flood policy in the United States  

Microsoft Academic Search

The average annual cost of floods in the United States has been estimated at about $2 billion (current US dollars). The federal\\u000a government, through the creation of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), has assumed responsibility for mitigating\\u000a the societal and economic impacts of flooding by establishing a national policy that provides subsidized flood insurance.\\u000a Increased flood costs during the

Alexandros A. Ntelekos; Michael Oppenheimer; James A. Smith; Andrew J. Miller

2010-01-01

281

Verification of Advances in a Coupled Snow-runoff Modeling Framework for Operational Streamflow Forecasts  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) River Forecast Centers (RFCs) issue hydrologic forecasts related to flood events, reservoir operations for water supply, streamflow regulation, and recreation on the nation's streams and rivers. The RFCs use the National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) for streamflow forecasting which relies on a coupled snow model (i.e. SNOW17) and rainfall-runoff model (i.e. SAC-SMA) in snow-dominated regions of the US. Errors arise in various steps of the forecasting system from input data, model structure, model parameters, and initial states. The goal of the current study is to undertake verification of potential improvements in the SNOW17-SAC-SMA modeling framework developed for operational streamflow forecasts. We undertake verification for a range of parameters sets (i.e. RFC, DREAM (Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis)) as well as a data assimilation (DA) framework developed for the coupled models. Verification is also undertaken for various initial conditions to observe the influence of variability in initial conditions on the forecast. The study basin is the North Fork America River Basin (NFARB) located on the western side of the Sierra Nevada Mountains in northern California. Hindcasts are verified using both deterministic (i.e. Nash Sutcliffe efficiency, root mean square error, and joint distribution) and probabilistic (i.e. reliability diagram, discrimination diagram, containing ratio, and Quantile plots) statistics. Our presentation includes comparison of the performance of different optimized parameters and the DA framework as well as assessment of the impact associated with the initial conditions used for streamflow forecasts for the NFARB.

Barik, M. G.; Hogue, T. S.; Franz, K. J.; He, M.

2011-12-01

282

Hydrologic ensemble hindcasting and verification in the U.S. National Weather Service  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quantifying the predictive uncertainty in hydrologic forecasts is one of the most pressing needs in operational hydrologic forecasting, to support risk-based decision making for a wide range of applications (e.g. flood risk management, water supply management, streamflow regulation, and recreation planning). Towards this goal, the Office of Hydrologic Development of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS), in collaboration with the NWS River Forecast Centers, Deltares and other partners, has been developing the Experimental Ensemble Forecast System (XEFS). The XEFS includes the Ensemble Pre-Processor, the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction subsystem, the Ensemble Post-Processor, the Hydrologic Model Output Statistics streamflow ensemble processor, as well as the Ensemble Verification System for assessing the quality of the probabilistic forecasts generated therein. It is currently being integrated into the NWS's Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS), which builds on the service-oriented architecture of the Delft FEWS Flood Early Warning System. The CHPS-XEFS also provides ensemble hindcasting capabilities to retroactively apply the newly developed ensemble forecasting approaches, and produce large samples of ensemble hindcasts that are necessary for verification. The verification results based on these hindcasts may be used to evaluate the benefits of new or improved ensemble forecasting approaches. Additionally these can be used to analyze the various sources of uncertainty and error in the forecasting system, as well as guide targeted improvements. Hindcasts may also be required by sophisticated forecast users to calibrate their decision support system, and could help operational forecasters identify historical analogue forecasts to make informed decisions in real-time. In this paper, we describe our hindcasting procedures using CHPS-XEFS, present verification results of ensemble hindcasts generated therein, and discuss the scientific challenges in developing meaningful forecasting, hindcasting and verification capabilities and products.

Demargne, Julie; Liu, Yuqiong; Brown, James; Seo, Dong-Jun; Wu, Limin; Weerts, Albrecht; Werner, Micha

2010-05-01

283

Rhine and Meuse Floods of 1995—how predictable are water levels in The Netherlands?  

Microsoft Academic Search

Extreme amounts of precipitation in the drainage basins of the Rhine and Meuse caused peak flows in both rivers in January 1995. Critical water levels were exceeded, and by way of precaution more than 200 000 people were evacuated. During such floods, water level forecasts are important as base information for flood management. The forecasts for the Rhine and Meuse

BART PARMET

1997-01-01

284

Program for Prediction, Prevention and Mitigation of Forest Fire and Flood risk in Albania  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The rationale lying behind the program jointly managed by the Albanian and the Italian Civil protections is that of strengthening the Albanian National System for the prediction and prevention of forest fires and flooding. This is an initiative of the Italian government aimed at implementing in Albania the systems currently used by the Italian National "Functional Centers". The "Functional Centers" are the Operations Centers in charge for assessment forecasting, and surveillance of natural and man-made risks and represent a key component of the Italian Civil Protection System. CIMA Foundation is acting in its capacity as Executing Agency of the Italian Department of Civil Protection (DPC) in the framework of the International Cooperation between the two Countries. CIMA Foundation has been founded by DPC and the University of Genoa with the aim of advancing the scientific research and technical development, high profile engineering and environmental science education, whose ultimate goal is to guarantee public health and safety as well as to safeguard land and sea ecosystems. The "Program for Prediction, Prevention and Mitigation of Forest Fire and Flood risk in Albania" addresses four objectives: Object 1- to establish a National Center for Forecasting and Monitoring of Natural Risk/National Functional Center, a National Operations Center and two Regional Operations Centers; Object 2 to design and to implement an intensive training programme for risk assessment and management; Object 3 - to adapt the Italian Early Warning System for forest fires to the whole Albanian territory; Object 4 - to adapt the Italian Early Warning System for flooding to the Buna river and the Shkodra region, the latter recently affected by two disastrous floods.

Centoducati, C.; D'Angelo, L.; Deda, M.; Ferraris, L.; Fiori, E.; Gjonaj, M.; Kelmendi, S.; Massabò, M.; Olli, A.; Siccardi, F.

2012-04-01

285

Post processing rainfall forecasts from numerical weather prediction models for short term streamflow forecasting  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sub-daily ensemble rainfall forecasts that are bias free and reliably quantify forecast uncertainty are critical for flood and short-term ensemble streamflow forecasting. Post processing of rainfall predictions from numerical weather prediction models is typically required to provide rainfall forecasts with these properties. In this paper, a new approach to generate ensemble rainfall forecasts by post processing raw NWP rainfall predictions is introduced. The approach uses a simplified version of the Bayesian joint probability modelling approach to produce forecast probability distributions for individual locations and forecast periods. Ensemble forecasts with appropriate spatial and temporal correlations are then generated by linking samples from the forecast probability distributions using the Schaake shuffle. The new approach is evaluated by applying it to post process predictions from the ACCESS-R numerical weather prediction model at rain gauge locations in the Ovens catchment in southern Australia. The joint distribution of NWP predicted and observed rainfall is shown to be well described by the assumed log-sinh transformed multivariate normal distribution. Ensemble forecasts produced using the approach are shown to be more skilful than the raw NWP predictions both for individual forecast periods and for cumulative totals throughout the forecast periods. Skill increases result from the correction of not only the mean bias, but also biases conditional on the magnitude of the NWP rainfall prediction. The post processed forecast ensembles are demonstrated to successfully discriminate between events and non-events for both small and large rainfall occurrences, and reliably quantify the forecast uncertainty. Future work will assess the efficacy of the post processing method for a wider range of climatic conditions and also investigate the benefits of using post processed rainfall forecast for flood and short term streamflow forecasting.

Robertson, D. E.; Shrestha, D. L.; Wang, Q. J.

2013-05-01

286

Post-processing rainfall forecasts from numerical weather prediction models for short-term streamflow forecasting  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sub-daily ensemble rainfall forecasts that are bias free and reliably quantify forecast uncertainty are critical for flood and short-term ensemble streamflow forecasting. Post-processing of rainfall predictions from numerical weather prediction models is typically required to provide rainfall forecasts with these properties. In this paper, a new approach to generate ensemble rainfall forecasts by post-processing raw numerical weather prediction (NWP) rainfall predictions is introduced. The approach uses a simplified version of the Bayesian joint probability modelling approach to produce forecast probability distributions for individual locations and forecast lead times. Ensemble forecasts with appropriate spatial and temporal correlations are then generated by linking samples from the forecast probability distributions using the Schaake shuffle. The new approach is evaluated by applying it to post-process predictions from the ACCESS-R numerical weather prediction model at rain gauge locations in the Ovens catchment in southern Australia. The joint distribution of NWP predicted and observed rainfall is shown to be well described by the assumed log-sinh transformed bivariate normal distribution. Ensemble forecasts produced using the approach are shown to be more skilful than the raw NWP predictions both for individual forecast lead times and for cumulative totals throughout all forecast lead times. Skill increases result from the correction of not only the mean bias, but also biases conditional on the magnitude of the NWP rainfall prediction. The post-processed forecast ensembles are demonstrated to successfully discriminate between events and non-events for both small and large rainfall occurrences, and reliably quantify the forecast uncertainty. Future work will assess the efficacy of the post-processing method for a wider range of climatic conditions and also investigate the benefits of using post-processed rainfall forecasts for flood and short-term streamflow forecasting.

Robertson, D. E.; Shrestha, D. L.; Wang, Q. J.

2013-09-01

287

Urban flooding and Resilience: concepts and needs  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

During the recent years, a growing interest for resilience has been expressed in the natural disaster mitigation area and especially in the flood related events. The European Union, under the Seventh Framework Programme (FP7), has initiated several research initiatives in order to explore this concept especially for the urban environments. Under urban resilience is underlined the ability of system potentially exposed to hazard to resist, respond, recover and reflect up to stage which is enough to preserve level of functioning and structure. Urban system can be resilient to lot of different hazards. Urban resilience is defined as the degree to which cities are able to tolerate some disturbance before reorganizing around a new set of structures and processes (Holling 1973, De Bruijn 2005). The United Nation's International strategy for Disaster Reductions has defined resilience as "the capacity of a system, community or society potentially exposed to hazards to adapt, by resisting or changing in order to reach and maintain an acceptable level of functioning and structure. This is determined by the degree to which the social system is capable of organizing itself to increase this capacity for learning from past disasters for better future protection and to improve risk reduction measures."(UN/ISDR 2004). According to that, system should be able to accept the hazard and be able to recover up to condition that provides acceptable operational level of city structure and population during and after hazard event. Main elements of urban system are built environment and population. Physical characteristic of built environment and social characteristic of population have to be examined in order to evaluate resilience. Therefore presenting methodology for assessing flood resilience in urban areas has to be one of the focal points for the exposed cities. Strategies under flood management planning related to resilience of urban systems are usually regarding controlling runoff volume, increasing capacity of drainage systems, spatial planning, building regulations, etc. Resilience also considers resilience of population to floods and it's measured with time. Assessment of resilience that is focused on population is following bottom-up approach starting from individual and then assessing community level. Building resilience involves also contribution of social networks, increasing response capacity of communities, self-organization, learning and education and cheering adaptation culture. Measures for improving social side of resilience covers: raising public awareness, implementation of flood forecasting and warning, emergency response planning and training, sharing information, education and communication. Most of these aspects are analyzed with the CORFU FP7 project. Collaborative Research on Flood Resilience in Urban areas (CORFU) is a major project involving 17 European and Asian institutions, funded by a grant from the European Commission under the Seventh Framework Programme. The overall aim of CORFU is to enable European and Asian partners to learn from each other through joint investigation, development, implementation and dissemination of short to medium term strategies that will enable more scientifically sound management of the consequences of urban flooding in the future and to develop resilience strategies according to each situation. The CORFU project looks at advanced and novel strategies and provide adequate measures for improved flood management in cities. The differences in urban flooding problems in Asia and in Europe range from levels of economic development, infrastructure age, social systems and decision making processes, to prevailing drainage methods, seasonality of rainfall patterns and climate change trends. The study cases are, in Europe, the cities of Hamburg, Barcelona and Nice, and in Asia, Beijing, Dhaka, Mumbai, Taipei, Seoul and Incheon.

Gourbesville, Ph.

2012-04-01

288

Forecasting Elections  

Microsoft Academic Search

Using the 2008 elections, I explore the accuracy and informational content of forecasts derived from two different types of data: polls and prediction markets. Both types of data suffer from inherent biases, and this is the first analysis to compare the accuracy of these forecasts adjusting for these biases. Moreover, the analysis expands on previous research by evaluating state-level forecasts

David Rothschild

2009-01-01

289

Weather Forecasting  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Students consider how weather forecasting plays an important part in their daily lives. They learn about the history of weather forecasting â from old weather proverbs to modern forecasting equipment â and how improvements in weather technology have saved lives by providing advance warning of natural hazards.

Integrated Teaching And Learning Program

290

Load Forecasting  

Microsoft Academic Search

Load forecasting is vitally important for the electric industry in the deregulated economy. It has many applications including\\u000a energy purchasing and generation, load switching, contract evaluation, and infrastructure development. A large variety of\\u000a mathematical methods have been developed for load forecasting. In this chapter we discuss various approaches to load forecasting.

Eugene A. Feinberg; Dora Genethliou

291

FLDVIEW: THE NWS FLOOD FORECAST MAPPING APPLICATION  

Microsoft Academic Search

Research Institute's (ESRI's) ArcView 3.1* software along with the Spatial Analyst* and 3-D Analyst* extensions. It uses custom scripts written in Avenue, ArcView's scripting language, to produce a map of the inundated area in both raster and vector formats. This paper describes the capabilities of FLDVIEW and its application on the Juniata River in the vicinity of Lewistown, PA. OVERVIEW

Neftali Cajina; Janice Sylvestre; Edward Henderson; Michael Logan; Michael Richardson

292

INFORMATION NEEDS WHEN ESTIMATING ICE JAM FLOODS AND ICE RUNS  

Microsoft Academic Search

Ice jams are a major cause of floods in mid- to high-latitude regions. This paper discusses the information needs in estimating\\u000a ice jam floods and for forecasting major ice runs (sometimes called ice gorges) that may precede ice cover formation and jamming,\\u000a or be consequent to the sudden collapse of a jam. It outlines how ice-jam floods are influenced not

ROBERT ETTEMA

293

Assessing Risk in Operational Decisions Using Great Lakes Probabilistic Water Level Forecasts  

PubMed

/ A method adapted from the National Weather Service's Extended Streamflow Prediction technique is applied retrospectively to three Great Lakes case studies to show how risk assessment using probabilistic monthly water level forecasts could have contributed to the decision-mak-ing process. The first case study examines the 1985 International Joint Commission (IJC) decision to store water in Lake Superior to reduce high levels on the downstream lakes. Probabilistic forecasts are generated for Lake Superior and Lakes Michigan-Huron and used with riparian inundation value functions to assess the relative impacts of the IJC's decision on riparian interests for both lakes. The second case study evaluates the risk of flooding at Milwaukee, Wisconsin, and the need to implement flood-control projects if Lake Michigan levels were to continue to rise above the October 1986 record. The third case study quantifies the risks of impaired municipal water works operation during the 1964-1965 period of extreme low water levels on Lakes Huron, St. Clair, Erie, and Ontario. Further refinements and other potential applications of the probabilistic forecast technique are discussed.KEY WORDS: Great Lakes; Water levels; Forecasting; Risk; Decision making PMID:8939784

LEE; CLITES; KEILLOR

1997-01-01

294

Is It Going to Rain Today? Understanding the Weather Forecast.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Presents a resource for science teachers to develop a better understanding of weather forecasts, including outlooks, watches, warnings, advisories, severe local storms, winter storms, floods, hurricanes, nonprecipitation hazards, precipitation probabilities, sky condition, and UV index. (MKR)

Allsopp, Jim; And Others

1996-01-01

295

Is It Going to Rain Today? Understanding the Weather Forecast.  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

|Presents a resource for science teachers to develop a better understanding of weather forecasts, including outlooks, watches, warnings, advisories, severe local storms, winter storms, floods, hurricanes, nonprecipitation hazards, precipitation probabilities, sky condition, and UV index. (MKR)|

Allsopp, Jim; And Others

1996-01-01

296

Scheduling satellite-based SAR acquisition for sequential assimilation of water level observations into flood modelling  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

We assimilate satellite SAR-derived water level with an ensemble filter (ETKF).We evaluate the forecast sensitivity to satellite first visit and revisit time.Online correction of imposed bias clearly improves the 2D flood model/DA forecast.Imagery obtained early in the flood has a large influence on the forecast.Revisit interval is most influential for early observations.

García-Pintado, Javier; Neal, Jeff C.; Mason, David C.; Dance, Sarah L.; Bates, Paul D.

2013-07-01

297

An areal rainfall forecasting method based on fuzzy optimum neural network and Geography Information System  

Microsoft Academic Search

An areal rainfall is important basic data in a real time flood warning system. Good areal rainfall calculation means we can forecast flood more accurately and in time. Here, we propose an areal rainfall forecasting methodology integrated fuzzy optimized neural network with Geography Information System (GIS) methods. GIS has an advantage of processing spatial information. Using many models and methods

Shouyu Chen; Qingguo Li

2004-01-01

298

Integration of transfer function model and back propagation neural network for forecasting storm sewer flow in Taipei metropolis  

Microsoft Academic Search

Typhoons and storms have often brought heavy rainfalls and induced floods that have frequently caused severe damage and loss\\u000a of life in Taiwan. Our ability to predict sewer discharge and forecast floods in advance during storm seasons plays an important\\u000a role in flood warning and flood hazard mitigation. In this paper, we develop an integrated model (TFMBPN) for forecasting\\u000a sewer

Chih-Chiang Lu; Chu-Hui Chen; Tian-Chyi J. Yeh; Cheng-Mau Wu; I-Fang Yau

2006-01-01

299

Flood Analysis  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Students learn how to use and graph real-world stream gage data to create event and annual hydrographs and calculate flood frequency statistics. Using an Excel spreadsheet of real-world event, annual and peak streamflow data, they manipulate the data (converting units, sorting, ranking, plotting), solve problems using equations, and calculate return periods and probabilities. Prompted by worksheet questions, they analyze the runoff data as engineers would. Students learn how hydrographs help engineers make decisions and recommendations to community stakeholders concerning water resources and flooding.

Integrated Teaching And Learning Program

300

Flood Risk Management in Iowa through an Integrated Flood Information System  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The Iowa Flood Information System (IFIS) is a web-based platform developed by the Iowa Flood Center (IFC) to provide access to flood inundation maps, real-time flood conditions, flood forecasts both short-term and seasonal, flood-related data, information and interactive visualizations for communities in Iowa. The key element of the system's architecture is the notion of community. Locations of the communities, those near streams and rivers, define basin boundaries. The IFIS provides community-centric watershed and river characteristics, weather (rainfall) conditions, and streamflow data and visualization tools. Interactive interfaces allow access to inundation maps for different stage and return period values, and flooding scenarios with contributions from multiple rivers. Real-time and historical data of water levels, gauge heights, and rainfall conditions are available in the IFIS by streaming data from automated IFC bridge sensors, USGS stream gauges, NEXRAD radars, and NWS forecasts. Simple 2D and 3D interactive visualizations in the IFIS make the data more understandable to general public. Users are able to filter data sources for their communities and selected rivers. The data and information on IFIS is also accessible through web services and mobile applications. The IFIS is optimized for various browsers and screen sizes to provide access through multiple platforms including tablets and mobile devices. The IFIS includes a rainfall-runoff forecast model to provide a five-day flood risk estimate for around 1100 communities in Iowa. Multiple view modes in the IFIS accommodate different user types from general public to researchers and decision makers by providing different level of tools and details. River view mode allows users to visualize data from multiple IFC bridge sensors and USGS stream gauges to follow flooding condition along a river. The IFIS will help communities make better-informed decisions on the occurrence of floods, and will alert communities in advance to help minimize damage of floods. This presentation provides an overview and live demonstration of the tools and interfaces in the IFIS developed to date to provide a platform for one-stop access to flood related data, visualizations, flood conditions, and forecast.

Demir, Ibrahim; Krajewski, Witold

2013-04-01

301

44 CFR 59.22 - Prerequisites for the sale of flood insurance.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

... false Prerequisites for the sale of flood insurance. 59.22 Section 59.22...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program GENERAL PROVISIONS...59.22 Prerequisites for the sale of flood insurance. (a) To qualify for...

2010-10-01

302

44 CFR 60.22 - Planning considerations for flood-prone areas.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

...2009-10-01 false Planning considerations for flood-prone areas. 60.22 Section 60...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program CRITERIA FOR LAND MANAGEMENT... Additional Considerations in Managing Flood-Prone, Mudslide (i.e.,...

2009-10-01

303

44 CFR 60.22 - Planning considerations for flood-prone areas.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

...2010-10-01 false Planning considerations for flood-prone areas. 60.22 Section 60...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program CRITERIA FOR LAND MANAGEMENT... Additional Considerations in Managing Flood-Prone, Mudslide (i.e.,...

2010-10-01

304

24 CFR 3285.102 - Installation of manufactured homes in flood hazard areas.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

... Installation of manufactured homes in flood hazard areas. 3285.102 Section 3285... Installation of manufactured homes in flood hazard areas. (a) Definitions. ...defined in 44 CFR 59.1 of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)...

2013-04-01

305

Martian Floods  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This Windows to the Universe site provides beginner, intermediate and advanced information about Martian flooding. It includes a NASA image of Mars despicting outflow channels and river valley networks, which provide evidence for two theories about the global Martian water cycle.

Johnson, Roberta

306

Flooding Exercises  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This homework exercise, developed for an undergraduate geology course at Tulane University, leads students through the steps involved in determining the probability that a flood of a given discharge will occur in any given year. Students retrieve discharge data from U.S. Geological Services Internet sites for Dry Creek, LA, Rapid Creek, SD and Red River, ND to make their calculations.

Nelson, Stephen

307

Downscaling Extended Weather Forecasts for Hydrologic Prediction  

SciTech Connect

Weather and climate forecasts are critical inputs to hydrologic forecasting systems. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) issues 8-15 days outlook daily for the U.S. based on the Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model, which is a global model applied at about 2? spatial resolution. Because of the relatively coarse spatial resolution, weather forecasts produced by the MRF model cannot be applied directly to hydrologic forecasting models that require high spatial resolution to represent land surface hydrology. A mesoscale atmospheric model was used to dynamically downscale the 1-8 day extended global weather forecasts to test the feasibility of hydrologic forecasting through this model nesting approach. Atmospheric conditions of each 8-day forecast during the period 1990-2000 were used to provide initial and boundary conditions for the mesoscale model to produce an 8-day atmospheric forecast for the western U.S. at 30 km spatial resolution. To examine the impact of initialization of the land surface state on forecast skill, two sets of simulations were performed with the land surface state initialized based on the global forecasts versus land surface conditions from a continuous mesoscale simulation driven by the NCEP reanalysis. Comparison of the skill of the global and downscaled precipitation forecasts in the western U.S. showed higher skill for the downscaled forecasts at all precipitation thresholds and increasingly larger differences at the larger thresholds. Analyses of the surface temperature forecasts show that the mesoscale forecasts generally reduced the root-mean-square error by about 1.5 C compared to the global forecasts, because of the much better resolved topography at 30 km spatial resolution. In addition, initialization of the land surface states has large impacts on the temperature forecasts, but not the precipitation forecasts. The improvements in forecast skill using downscaling could be potentially significant for improving hydrologic forecasts for managing river basins.

Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Qian, Yun

2005-03-01

308

Resource Assessment of the June 27 and 28, 1995 Floods and Debris Flows in Shenandoah National Park.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

Stationary thunderstorms and prolonged, intense rains in late June 1995 caused major ecological changes to watersheds and damaged roads and trails throughout Shenandoah National Park (SNP). Teams were mobilized to determine the extent of damage to roads a...

J. Karish T. Blount B. Krumenaker

1997-01-01

309

Proposed Future Disposition of Certain Cerro Grande Fire Flood and Sediment Retention Structures at Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico  

SciTech Connect

This environmental assessment (EA) has been prepared to analyze the environmental consequences resulting from the future disposition of certain flood retention structures built in the wake of the Cerro Grande Fire within the boundaries of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). In May 2000, a prescription burn, started on Federally-administered land to the northwest of LANL, blew out of control and was designated as a wildfire. This wildfire, which became known as the Cerro Grande Fire, burned approximately 7,650 acres (3,061 hectares) within the boundaries of LANL before it was extinguished. During the fire a number of emergency actions were undertaken by the Department of Energy (DOE), National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) to suppress and extinguish the fire within LANL; immediately thereafter, NNSA undertook additional emergency actions to address the post-fire conditions. Due to hydrophobic soils (non-permeable soil areas created as a result of very high temperatures often associated with wild fires) and the loss of vegetation from steep canyon sides caused by the fire, surface runoff and soil erosion on hillsides above LANL were greatly increased over prefire levels. The danger to LANL facilities and structures and homes located down-canyon from the burned area was magnified.

N /A

2002-08-07

310

Weather Forecasting  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This activity (on page 2 of the PDF) is a full inquiry investigation into meteorology and forecasting. Learners will research weather folklore, specifically looking for old-fashioned ways of predicting the weather. Then, they'll record observations of these predictors along with readings from their own homemade barometer, graphing the correct predictions for analysis. Relates to linked video, DragonflyTV: Forecasting.

Twin Cities Public Television, Inc.

2005-01-01

311

Research on assessment system of flood losses for Poyang Lake area based on GIS  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In order to assess flood losses accurately and rapidly, the author has developed the assessment system of flood losses for Poyang Lake area based on GIS. Firstly, the author has established the assessment model of flood losses for Poyang Lake area, which contains building flood hazard database, selecting flood hazard factors, improving neural network training model, verifying analysis, etc. Secondly, the author has designed the system structure, which includes six sub-system, water regime acquisition, flood forecasting, information inquiry, assessment of flood losses, flood scheduling and system settings. Then the assessment system of flood losses has been developed by using Visual Basic 6.0 and MATLAB in Arc Engine. Finally, the system has been applied in the Poyang Lake area, and the application result shows that the assessment system of flood losses has good feasibility and practicality.

Liu, Xiaosheng; Yu, Haofeng; Sun, Qun

2008-10-01

312

A Decision Support System for Monitoring, Reporting, and Forecasting Ecological Conditions of the Appalachian National Scenic Trail  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

This project represents a collaborative multi-agency effort to support decision-making for the A.T. by providing a coherent framework for data integration, monitoring, reporting and forecasting. The A.T.-DSS integrates NASA multi-platform sensor data, NASA Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS) models, and in situ measurements from A.T. MEGA-Transect partners to address the management issues of the A.T. environment. The A.T.-DSS focuses on primary vital signs of phenology and climate, forest health and landscape dynamics, among others.

2012-01-01

313

Considering Correlation between Variables to Improve Spatiotemporal Forecasting  

Microsoft Academic Search

The importance of forecasting cannot be overemphasized in modern environment surveillance applications, including flood control,\\u000a rainfall analysis, pollution study, nuclear leakage prevention and so on. That is why we proposed STIFF (SpatioTemporal Integrated\\u000a Forecasting Framework) in previous work [11], trying to answer such a challenging problem of doing forecasting in natural environment with both spatial and temporal\\u000a characteristics involved. However,

Zhigang Li; Liangang Liu; Margaret H. Dunham

2003-01-01

314

Development of Multisensor Precipitation Nowcaster in the National Weather Service  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

To meet the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) objective to increase lead-time and accuracy of flash flood forecasts, the NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) Office of Hydrologic Development has developed the Multisensor Precipitation Nowcaster (MPN) algorithm based on its Flash Flood Potential algorithm. In contrast to many existing nowcast algorithms that are single-radar-based, MPN integrates and mosaics data from multiple radars to provide seamless regional gridded rainfall nowcast products that alleviate known problems in estimating and nowcasting rainfall resulting from range-related degradation of rainfall estimates. Even for local forecasting operations, forecasters can benefit from MPN by viewing data from multiple radars simultaneously and by using it to evaluate possible upstream features which are distant from the local radar. Instead of using radar-only rainfall estimates as its input, MPN uses rain gauge-adjusted rainfall estimates from the Multisensor Precipitation Estimator (MPE) algorithm that have been adjusted for possible biases using real-time gauge data. An example in the region of the Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center is used to demonstrate MPN short term quantitative precipitation forecasts using a multisensor approach and multiple radars. The rain rates observed by radars are adjusted according rain gauge data to remove the bias and are mosaicked by MPE. MPN uses those data as input and forecasts 1-hour accumulated precipitation and 0-1 hour rain rates. Our results indicate that MPN can produce 1-hour quantitative precipitation forecasts that substantially improve the probability of detection, the false-alarm rate, the critical success index, the correlation coefficient, and the root mean square error when compared with persistence methods. This study and our other studies confirm that MPN improves lead-time and accuracy of precipitation forecasts and is suitable for operational implementation.

Guan, S.; Fulton, R.; Ding, F.; Kitzmiller, D.

2006-05-01

315

Sediment Transport During Three Controlled-Flood Experiments on the Colorado River Downstream from Glen Canyon Dam, with Implications for Eddy-Sandbar Deposition in Grand Canyon National Park  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Three large-scale field experiments were conducted on the Colorado River downstream from Glen Canyon Dam in 1996, 2004, and 2008 to evaluate whether artificial (that is, controlled) floods released from the dam could be used in conjunction with the sand supplied by downstream tributaries to rebuild and sustainably maintain eddy sandbars in the river in Grand Canyon National Park. Higher suspended-sand concentrations during a controlled flood will lead to greater eddy-sandbar deposition rates. During each controlled flood experiment, sediment-transport and bed-sediment data were collected to evaluate sediment-supply effects on sandbar deposition. Data collection substantially increased in spatial and temporal density with each subsequent experiment. The suspended- and bed-sediment data collected during all three controlled-flood experiments are presented and analyzed in this report. Analysis of these data indicate that in designing the hydrograph of a controlled flood that is optimized for sandbar deposition in a given reach of the Colorado River, both the magnitude and the grain size of the sand supply must be considered. Because of the opposing physical effects of bed-sand area and bed-sand grain size in regulating suspended-sand concentration, larger amounts of coarser sand on the bed can lead to lower suspended-sand concentrations, and thus lower rates of sandbar deposition, during a controlled flood than can lesser amounts of finer sand on the bed. Although suspended-sand concentrations were higher at all study sites during the 2008 controlled-flood experiment (CFE) than during either the 1996 or 2004 CFEs, these higher concentrations were likely associated with more sand on the bed of the Colorado River in only lower Glen Canyon. More sand was likely present on the bed of the river in Grand Canyon during the 1996 CFE than during either the 2004 or 2008 CFEs. The question still remains as to whether sandbars can be sustained in the Colorado River in Grand Canyon National Park through use of controlled floods in conjunction with typical amounts and grain sizes of sand supplied by the tributaries that enter the Colorado River downstream from Glen Canyon Dam.

Topping, David J.; Rubin, David M.; Grams, Paul E.; Griffiths, Ronald E.; Sabol, Thomas A.; Voichick, Nicholas; Tusso, Robert B.; Vanaman, Karen M.; McDonald, Richard R.

2010-01-01

316

Olympian weather forecasting  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A unique public-private partnership will provide detailed weather information at the 2002 Winter Olympics in Utah, 8-24 February About 50 meteorologists with the National Weather Service (NWS) and several private groups will work in the background to provide accurate forecasts.This is the first time that U.S. government and private meteorologists will share forecasting responsibilities for the Olympics, according to the Salt Lake Organizing Committee for the Olympic Games. The partnership includes meteorologists with the University of Utah and KSL-TV in Salt Lake City.

Showstack, Randy

317

Newton's Apple: Floods  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Lesson plan on floods provides background information, compares the roles of wetlands and flood plains in a river's natural flood control with the pros and cons of engineered flood control. Includes glossary, resources and additional sources of information, discussion questions. Student activity demonstrates water movement on a wide flood plain and narrow channel.

318

Official forecasts pushed out to a year ahead  

Microsoft Academic Search

The National Weather Service is about to unveil 15 month forecasting. NWS will not be predicting individual storms in these long-range forecasts, but rather large regions of above, below, or near normal temperature and precipitation. NWS meterologists are adopting three standard techniques for long-range forecasting, two based on objective methods for forecasting El Nino, and one, canonical correlation analysis, an

R. A. Kerr

1994-01-01

319

Distributed models for operational river forecasting: research, development, and implementation  

Microsoft Academic Search

The National Weather Service (NWS) is uniquely mandated amongst federal agencies to provide river forecasts for the United States. To accomplish this mission, the NWS uses the NWS River Forecast System (NWSRFS). The NWSRFS is a collection of hydrologic, hydraulic, data collection, and forecast display algorithms employed at 13 River Forecast Centers (RFCs) throughout the US. Within the NWS, the

M. Smith

2003-01-01

320

Hydrologic Forecasting and Hydropower Production  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hydroelectric power production is one of many competing demands for available water along with other priority uses such as irrigation, thermoelectric cooling, municipal, recreation, and environmental performance. Increasingly, hydroelectric generation is being used to offset the intermittent nature of some renewable energy sources such as wind-generated power. An accurate forecast of the magnitude and timing of water supply assists managers in integrated planning and operations to balance competing water uses against current and future supply while protecting against the possibility of water or energy shortages and excesses with real-time actions. We present a medium-range to seasonal ensemble streamflow forecasting system where uncertainty in forecasts is addressed explicitly. The integrated forecast system makes use of remotely-sensed data and automated spatial and temporal data assimilation. Remotely-sensed snow cover, observed snow water equivalent, and observed streamflow data are used to update the hydrologic model state prior to the forecast. In forecast mode, the hydrology model is forced by calibrated ensemble weather/climate forecasts. This system will be fully integrated into a water optimization toolset to inform reservoir and power operations, and guide environmental performance decision making. This flow forecast system development is carried out in agreement with the National Weather Service so that the system can later be incorporated into the NOAA eXperimental Ensemble Forecast Service (XEFS).

Wigmosta, M. S.; Voisin, N.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Coleman, A.; Mishra, V.; Schaner, N. A.

2011-12-01

321

Business Forecasting  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Created by Fred Collopy, Weatherhead School of Management, Case Western Reserve University, this site provides access to current research in business forecasting. The most up-to-date information is maintained in the News section, complete with links to up-coming conferences, competitions, and publications. Annotated links to major business forecasting associations, datasets, and software providers are also provided, in addition to a bibliography of print materials and M-Competition Data--time series from three forecasting competitions available for download on site.

2007-05-20

322

A Decision Support System for effective use of probability forecasts  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Often, water management decisions are based on hydrological forecasts. These forecasts, however, are affected by inherent uncertainties. It is increasingly common for forecasting agencies to make explicit estimates of these uncertainties and thus produce probabilistic forecasts. Associated benefits include the decision makers' increased awareness of forecasting uncertainties and the potential for risk-based decision-making. Also, a stricter separation of responsibilities between forecasters and decision maker can be made. However, simply having probabilistic forecasts available is not sufficient to realise the associated benefits. Additional effort is required in areas such as forecast visualisation and communication, decision making in uncertainty and forecast verification. Also, revised separation of responsibilities requires a shift in institutional arrangements and responsibilities. A recent study identified a number of additional issues related to the effective use of probability forecasts. When moving from deterministic to probability forecasting, a dimension is added to an already multi-dimensional problem; this makes it increasingly difficult for forecast users to extract relevant information from a forecast. A second issue is that while probability forecasts provide a necessary ingredient for risk-based decision making, other ingredients may not be present. For example, in many cases no estimates of flood damage, of costs of management measures and of damage reduction are available. This paper presents the results of the study, including some suggestions for resolving these issues and the integration of those solutions in a prototype decision support system (DSS). A pathway for further development of the DSS is outlined.

De Kleermaeker, Simone; Verkade, Jan

2013-04-01

323

Feedback on flood risk management  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

For several years, as floods were increasing in South of France, local communities felt deprive to assume their mission of protection and information of citizens, and were looking for assistance in flood management. In term of flood disaster, the fact is that physical protection is necessary but inevitably limited. Tools and structures of assistance to anticipation remain slightly developed. To manage repeated crisis, local authorities need to be able to base their policy against flood on prevention, warnings, post-crisis analysis and feedback from former experience. In this objective, after 3 years of test and improvement since 2003, the initiative Predict-Services was developed in South of France: it aims at helping communities and companies to face repeated flood crisis. The principle is to prepare emergency plans, to organize crisis management and reduce risks; to help and assist communities and companies during crisis to activate and adapt their emergency plans with enough of anticipation; and to analyse floods effects and improve emergency plans afterwards. With the help of Meteo France datas and experts, Predict services helps local communities and companies in decision making for flood management. In order to reduce risks, and to keep the benefits of such an initiative, local communities and companies have to maintain the awareness of risk of the citizens and employees. They also have to maintain their safety plans to keep them constantly operational. This is a part of the message relayed. Companies, Local communities, local government authorities and basin stakeholders are the decision makers. Companies and local communities have to involve themselves in the elaboration of safety plans. They are also completely involved in their activation that is their own responsability. This applies to other local government authorities, like districts one's and basin stakeholders, which participle in the financing community safety plans and adminitrative district which are responsible of the transmission of meteorological alert and of rescue actions. In the crossing of the géo-information stemming from the space technology, communication, meteorology, hydraulics and hydrology, Predict-services brings help to local communities in their mission of protection and information to the citizens, for flood problems and helps companies to limit and delete operating losses facing floods. The initiative, developped by BRL, EADS Astrium, in association with Meteo France, has been employed and is functioning on cities of south of France, notably on Montpellier, and also on the scale of catchment area ( BRL is a regional development company, a public private partnership controlled by the local gouvernments of the Languedoc-Roussillon Region). The initiative has to be coordinated with state services to secure continuity and coherence of information. This initiative is developped in dialogue with State services as Météo France, the Ministry for the interior, the Ministry for ecology and the durable development, the Regional Direction of the Environment (DIREN), the Central service of Hydrometeorology and Support to the Forecast of the Floods ( SCHAPI) and service of forecast of rising (SPC). It has been successfully functioning for 5 years with 300 southern cities from South West to South East of France and notably Montpellier and Sommières, famous for it's flood problems on the Vidourle river where no human loss was to regret and where the economic impacts were minimized. Actually developed in cities of South of France, this initiative is to be developed nationaly and very soon internationally. Thanks to the efficiency of it's method, this initiative is also developed in partnership with insurance company involved in prevention actions. After more than 100 events observed and analysed in South of France, the experience gained, allowed PREDICT Services to better anticipate phenomena and also to better manage them. The presentation will expose the feedback of this initiative and lessons learned on risk management.

Moreau, K.; Roumagnac, A.

2009-09-01

324

Flood-hydrology data for the Potomac River and selected tributaries in the vicinity of the Chesapeake and Ohio Canal National Historical Park, Maryland, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia  

USGS Publications Warehouse

This report presents flood-hydrology data for the Potomac River and selected tributaries in the vicinity of the Chesapeake and Ohio Canal National Park (C & O Canal NHP). Data were compiled for the floods of (1) March 17-19, 1936; (2) June 22-24, 1972; (3) November 4-7, 1985; (4) January 19-21, 1996; (5) September 6-8, 1996; and (6) the peak of record for 6 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging stations on the Potomac River and 10 streamflow-gaging stations on selected tributaries to the Potomac River. Peak discharge, peak gage height, the date and time of the peak, and approximate recurrence interval are presented for each flood event at these streamflow-gaging stations.Data compiled from selected high-flow discharge measurements on the six Potomac River streamflow- gaging stations are presented. The gage height, top width, cross-sectional area, mean velocity, maximum velocity, and discharge are presented for each selected discharge measurement. Any corresponding discharge on the C & O Canal that was measured or estimated for these dischrge measurements is presented. Ranges of Manning's roughness coefficient were computed for the range of selected discharge measurements, based on estimates of water-surface slope or the channel-bed slope. These data will be used for subsequent hydraulic studies by engineers for maintenance, protection, or restoration of the C & O Canal. An inventory of selected references, flood studies, and additional USGS data along the Potomac River and the C & O Canal NHP also are presented. Included are (1) a listing of selected flood studies and reports, and (2) a listing of USGS indirect flood-discharge measurements that have been made at the six Potomac River streamflow-gaging stations in the vicinity of the C & O Canal NHP. Information on historical streamflow-gaging station records and discharge measurements on the C & O Canal also is presented.

Doheny, Edward J.

1997-01-01

325

Societal landslide and flood risk in Italy  

Microsoft Academic Search

We assessed societal landslide and flood risk to the population of Italy. The assessment was conducted at the national (synoptic) and at the regional scales. For the assessment, we used an improved version of the catalogue of historical landslide and flood events that have resulted in loss of life, missing persons, injuries and homelessness in Italy, from 1850 to 2008.

P. Salvati; C. Bianchi; M. Rossi; F. Guzzetti

2010-01-01

326

Forecasting Flu  

MedlinePLUS

... regular feature of the annual flu season. Adapting Weather Models Flu forecasting adapts approaches used by meteorologists ... when meteorologists seem to get it wrong, but weather prediction is actually very good," says Jeffrey Shaman, ...

327

Innovation Forecasting.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

Technological forecasting is premised on a certain orderliness of the innovation process. Myriad studies of technological substitution, diffusion, and transfer processes have yielded conceptual models of what matters for successful innovation. Yet most te...

A. L. Porter R. J. Watts

1997-01-01

328

Forecasting Skill.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The accuracy of centrally produced prognoses has improved throughout the past 20 years; however, several studies have shown negligible improvement in weather forecasting. Available data, more than 100 journal articles, were reviewed to independently evalu...

K. E. German

1981-01-01

329

Assessing the Capability of a Regional-Scale Weather Model to Simulate Extreme Precipitation Patterns and Flooding in Central Texas  

Microsoft Academic Search

A regional-scale weather model is used to determine the potential for flood forecasting based on model- predicted rainfall. Extreme precipitation and flooding events are a significant concern in central Texas, due to both the high occurrence and severity of flooding in the area. However, many current regional prediction models do not provide sufficient accuracy at the watershed scale necessary for

Marla R. Knebl Lowrey; Zong-Liang Yang

2008-01-01

330

HESS Opinions "On forecast (in)consistency in a hydro-meteorological chain: curse or blessing?"  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flood forecasting increasingly relies on numerical weather prediction forecasts to achieve longer lead times. One of the key difficulties that is emerging in constructing a decision framework for these flood forecasts is what to dowhen consecutive forecasts are so different that they lead to different conclusions regarding the issuing of warnings or triggering other action. In this opinion paper we explore some of the issues surrounding such forecast inconsistency (also known as "Jumpiness", "Turning points", "Continuity" or number of "Swings"). In thsi opinion paper we define forecast inconsistency; discuss the reasons why forecasts might be inconsistent; how we should analyse inconsistency; and what we should do about it; how we should communicate it and whether it is a totally undesirable property. The property of consistency is increasingly emerging as a hot topic in many forecasting environments.

Pappenberger, F.; Cloke, H. L.; Persson, A.; Demeritt, D.

2011-07-01

331

Deriving global flood hazard maps of fluvial floods through a physical model cascade  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Global flood hazard maps can be used in the assessment of flood risk in a number of different applications, including (re)insurance and large scale flood preparedness. Such global hazard maps can be generated using large scale physically based models of rainfall-runoff and river routing, when used in conjunction with a number of post-processing methods. In this study, the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) land surface model is coupled to ERA-Interim reanalysis meteorological forcing data, and resultant runoff is passed to a river routing algorithm which simulates floodplains and flood flow across the global land area. The global hazard map is based on a 30 yr (1979-2010) simulation period. A Gumbel distribution is fitted to the annual maxima flows to derive a number of flood return periods. The return periods are calculated initially for a 25 × 25 km grid, which is then reprojected onto a 1 × 1 km grid to derive maps of higher resolution and estimate flooded fractional area for the individual 25 × 25 km cells. Several global and regional maps of flood return periods ranging from 2 to 500 yr are presented. The results compare reasonably to a benchmark data set of global flood hazard. The developed methodology can be applied to other datasets on a global or regional scale.

Pappenberger, F.; Dutra, E.; Wetterhall, F.; Cloke, H. L.

2012-11-01

332

Deriving global flood hazard maps of fluvial floods through a physical model cascade  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Global flood hazard maps can be used in the assessment of flood risk in a number of different applications, including (re)insurance and large scale flood preparedness. Such global hazard maps can be generated using large scale physically based models of rainfall-runoff and river routing, when used in conjunction with a number of post-processing methods. In this study, the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) land surface model is coupled to ERA-Interim reanalysis meteorological forcing data, and resultant runoff is passed to a river routing algorithm which simulates floodplains and flood flow across the global land area. The global hazard map is based on a 30 yr (1979-2010) simulation period. A Gumbel distribution is fitted to the annual maxima flows to derive a number of flood return periods. The return periods are calculated initially for a 25 × 25 km grid, which is then reprojected onto a 1 × 1 km grid to derive maps of higher resolution and estimate flooded fractional area for the individual 25 × 25 km cells. Several global and regional maps of flood return periods ranging from 2 to 500 yr are presented. The results compare reasonably to a benchmark data set of global flood hazard. The developed methodology can be applied to other datasets on a global or regional scale.

Pappenberger, F.; Dutra, E.; Wetterhall, F.; Cloke, H.

2012-05-01

333

Deriving global flood hazard maps of fluvial floods through a physical model cascade  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Global flood hazard maps can be used in the assessment of flood risk in a number of different applications, including (re)insurance and large scale flood preparedness. Such global hazard maps can be generated using large scale physically based models of rainfall-runoff and river routing, when used in conjunction with a number of post-processing methods. In this study, the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) land surface model is coupled to ERA-Interim reanalysis meteorological forcing data, and resultant runoff is passed to a river routing algorithm which simulates floodplains and flood flow across the global land area. The global hazard map is based on a 30 yr (1979-2010) simulation period. A Gumbel distribution is fitted to the annual maxima flows to derive a number of flood return periods. The return periods are calculated initially for a 25 × 25 km grid, which is then reprojected onto a 1 × 1 km grid to derive maps of higher resolution and estimate flooded fractional area for the individual 25 × 25 km cells. Several global and regional maps of flood return periods ranging from 2 to 500 yr are presented. The results compare reasonably to a benchmark data set of global flood hazard. The developed methodology can be applied to other datasets on a global or regional scale.

Pappenberger, Florian; Dutra, Emanuel; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Cloke, Hannah L.

2013-04-01

334

Feedback on flood risk management  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

For several years, as floods were increasing in South of France, local communities felt deprive to assume their mission of protection and information of citizens, and were looking for assistance in flood management. In term of flood disaster, the fact is that physical protection is necessary but inevitably limited. Tools and structures of assistance to anticipation remain slightly developed. To manage repeated crisis, local authorities need to be able to base their policy against flood on prevention, warnings, post-crisis analysis and feedback from former experience. In this objective, after 3 years of test and improvement since 2003, the initiative Predict-Services was developped in South of France: it aims at helping communities and companies to face repeated flood crisis. The principle is to prepare emergency plans, to organize crisis management and reduce risks; to help and assist communities and companies during crisis to activate and adapt their emergency plans with enough of anticipation; and to analyse floods effects and improve emergency plans afterwards. In order to reduce risks, and to keep the benefits of such an initiative, local communities and companies have to maintain the awareness of risk of the citizens and employees. They also have to maintain their safety plans to keep them constantly operational. This is a part of the message relayed. Companies, Local communities, local government authorities and basin stakeholders are the decision makers. Companies and local communities have to involve themselves in the elaboration of safety plans. They are also completely involved in their activation that is their own responsability. This applies to other local government authorities, like districts one's and basin stakeholders, which participle in the financing community safety plans and adminitrative district which are responsible of the transmission of meteorological alert and of rescue actions. In the crossing of the géo-information stemming from the space technology, communication, meteorology, hydraulics and hydrology, Predict-services brings help to local communities in their mission of protection and information to the citizens, for flood problems and helps companies to limit and delete operating losses facing floods. The initiative, developped by BRL, EADS Astrium, in association with Meteo France, has been employed and is functioning on cities of south of France, notably on Montpellier, and also on the scale of catchment area( BRL is a regional development company, a public private partnership controlled by the local gouvernments of the Languedoc-Roussillon Region). The initiative has to be coordinated with state services to secure continuity and coherence of information. This initiative is developped in dialogue with State services as Météo France, the Ministry for the interior, the Ministry for ecology and the durable development, the Regional Direction of the Environment (DIREN), the Central service of Hydrometeorology and Support to the Forecast of the Floods ( SCHAPI) and service of forecast of rising (SPC). It has been successfully functioning for 5 years with 300 southern cities from South West to South East of France and notably Montpellier and Sommières, famous for it’s flood problems on the Vidourle river where no human loss was to regret and where the economic impacts were minimized. Actually developed in cities of South of France, this initiative is to be developed nationaly and very soon internationally. Thanks to the efficiency of it’s method, this initiative is also developed in partnership with insurance company involved in prevention actions. The presentation will expose the feedback of this initiative and lessons learned.

Moreau, K.; Roumagnac, A.

2009-09-01

335

Development of Flood GIS Database of River Indus using RS and GIS Techniques  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) are information technologies that furnish a broad range of tools to assist in preparing for the next flood and for obtaining vital information about the flood plain. This type of information is used to improve flood forecasting and preparedness, monitoring flood conditions, assess flood damage, relief efforts, flood control etc. Severe floods of varied magnitudes have occurred in the river Indus and its tributaries viz; Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej during the past three decades covering the Indus flood plain from Cheshma Barrage in the province of Punjab to downstream of Kotri Barrage in the souh of Sindh province of Pakistan. Digital mapping of different floods in the Indus Basin was carried out using both MSS and TM data of Landsat yielding flood maps. These maps depict flood extent and other relevant information in the flood plain. In order to create comprehensive GIS database, various hydrologic information such as rainfall, river discharge, canal withdrawal, embankment, breach etc. were incorporated. Flood database provide comprehensive information both in separate layer and combination of multiple layers pertaining to floods that occurred in the past three decades . GIS database on flood provides easy access to updated in-situ geographic information to planners and irrigation engineers concerned with overall river Indus operation and management system. GIS database of Indus floods can als o be used to improve the efficiency of decision making and management by collecting, organizing and integrating geographic, environmental and socio-economic spatial data and information.

Siddiqui, Z.; Farooq, M.; Shah, S.

336

Assessing options for the development of surface water flood warning in England and Wales.  

PubMed

This paper explores the technical options for warning of surface water flooding in England and Wales and presents the results of an Environment Agency funded project. Following the extensive surface water flooding experienced in summer 2007 a rainfall threshold-based Extreme Rainfall Alert (ERA) was piloted by the Met Office and Environment Agency providing initial steps towards the establishment of a warning for some types of surface water flooding. The findings of this paper are based primarily on feedback on technical options from a range of professionals involved in flood forecasting and warning and flood risk management, about the current alerts and about the potential options for developing a more targeted surface water flood warning service. Providing surface water flooding warnings presents a set of technical, forecasting and warning challenges related to the rapid onset of flooding, the localised nature of the flooding, and the linking of rainfall and flood forecasts to flood likelihood and impact on the ground. Some examples of rainfall alerting and surface water flood warning services from other countries are evaluated, as well as a small number of recently implemented local services in England and Wales. Various potential options for implementation of a service are then explored and assessed. The paper concludes that development of a surface water flood warning service for England and Wales is feasible and is likely to be useful to emergency responders and operational agencies, although developing such a service for the pluvial components of this type of flooding is likely to be feasible sooner than for other components of surface water flooding such as that caused by sewers. A targeted surface water flood warning service could be developed for professional emergency responders in the first instance rather than for the public for whom such a service without further operational testing and piloting would be premature. PMID:21862203

Priest, S J; Parker, D J; Hurford, A P; Walker, J; Evans, K

2011-09-08

337

76 FR 62777 - Forum-Trends and Causes of Observed Changes in Heat Waves, Cold Waves, Floods and Drought  

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013

...in Heat Waves, Cold Waves, Floods and Drought AGENCY: National Environmental Satellite...gov/heatwaves-coldwaves-floods-drought/. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT...gov/heatwaves-coldwaves-floods-drought/ . Topics To Be Addressed This...

2011-10-11

338

Intertercomparison of Traditional and Learning Algorithms For Hydrological Forecasting  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuzzy rules have been applied to different hydrological problems. They can express non-linear relationships between variables in an easy to understand form. Models for forecasting daily discharge and water level are presented in this paper. As base for the fuzzy rule arguments on-line available data were selected. Fuzzy rules were derived from observed flood events using a combinatorial optimisation technique - in this case Simulated Annealing. A split-sampling and cross-validation comparison with Wiener Filter and Nearest Neighbour methods shows that the fuzzy forecasts perform signifi- cantly better. An adaptive rule estimation method for possible operational forecasting is also presented. The different approaches for short term hydrological forecasting have been compared for the middle current of the River Danube. Results were also compared with Nash cascade based flood routing technique used in operational regime of forecasting.

Bardossy, A.; Keve, G.; Balint, G.

339

Forecast Survey, The U.S. Economy: 1976 I to 1977 IV.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The paper presents a composite forecast of the U.S. economy based on some of the nation's leading private forecasts. The individual forecasts comprising the composite were made in March 1976, and incorporate the rebenchmarked and rebased (1972) Department...

1976-01-01

340

Coupled Teleconnections and River Dynamics for Enhanced Hydrologic Forecasting in the Upper Colorado River Basin USA  

Microsoft Academic Search

Accuracy of water supply forecasts has improved for some river basins in the western U.S.A. by integrating knowledge of climate teleconnections, such as El Niño\\/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), into forecasting routines, but in other basins, such as the Colorado River Basin (CRB), forecast accuracy has declined (Pagano et al. 2004). Longer lead time and more accurate seasonal forecasts, particularly during floods

M. A. Matter; L. A. Garcia; D. G. Fontane

2005-01-01

341

Projected Annual Resource Requirements at the National and Regional Level for the Department of Commerce Energy Forecast 1985 and 2000.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

This report presents an analysis of the national and regional resource requirements (capital, material, manpower, etc.) associated with future energy development in the U.S. This analysis, using Bechtel's Energy Supply Planning Model (ESPM) indicates proj...

A. L. Watson R. G. J. Zimmerman

1979-01-01

342

Implementing the EU Floods Directive (2007/60/EC) in Austria: Flood Risk Management Plans  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

he Directive 2007/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2007 on the assessment and management of flood risks (EFD) aims at the reduction of the adverse consequences for human health, the environment, cultural heritage and economic activity associated with floods in the Community. This task is to be achieved based on three process steps (1) preliminary flood risk assessment (finalised by the end of 2011), (2) flood hazard maps and flood risk maps (due 2013) and (3) flood risk management plans (due 2015). Currently, an interdisciplinary national working group is defining the methodological framework for flood risk management plans in Austria supported by a constant exchange with international bodies and experts. Referring to the EFD the components of the flood risk management plan are (excerpt): 1. conclusions of the preliminary flood risk assessment 2. flood hazard maps and flood risk maps and the conclusions that can be drawn from those maps 3. a description of the appropriate objectives of flood risk management 4. a summary of measures and their prioritisation aiming to achieve the appropriate objectives of flood risk management The poster refers to some of the major challenges in this process, such as the legal provisions, coordination of administrative units, definition of public relations, etc. The implementation of the EFD requires the harmonisation of legal instruments of various disciplines (e.g. water management, spatial planning, civil protection) enabling a coordinated - and ideally binding - practice of flood risk management. This process is highly influenced by the administrative organisation in Austria - federal, provincial and municipality level. The Austrian approach meets this organisational framework by structuring the development of the flood risk management plan into 3 time-steps: (a) federal blueprint, (b) provincial editing and (c) federal finishing as well as reporting to the European Commission. Each time-step addresses different administrative levels and spatial scales accompanied by the active involvement of interested parties.

Neuhold, Clemens

2013-04-01

343

Ocean oil spill concentration and trajectory forecast project. Final report  

SciTech Connect

This report covers the development of forecast methods to predict the movement and behavior of ocean oil spills. The main purpose of the project was to implement the forecast method for routine use in the National Weather Service (NWS). During oil spill events, the forecast method will be used by the responsible NWS Forecast Offices to support the clean-up and preventive operations. Oil spill forecast models can also be used for design and planning purposes in the coastal areas.

Barrientos, C.S.; Hess, K.W.

1983-08-01

344

Estimating extreme flood probabilities  

Microsoft Academic Search

Estimates of the exceedance probabilities of extreme floods are needed for the assessment of flood hazard at Department of Energy facilities. A new approach using a joint probability distribution of extreme rainfalls and antecedent soil moisture conditions, along with a rainfall runoff model, provides estimates of probabilities for floods approaching the probable maximum flood. This approach is illustrated for a

T. A. Fontaine; K. W. Potter; C. A. Rodgers

1994-01-01

345

National Coal Utilization Assessment: a preliminary assessment of coal utilizaton in the South. [Southern USA to 2020; forecasting  

SciTech Connect

Some of the major problems and issues related to coal development and use in the South are identified and assessed assuming a base-case energy scenario for the next 45 years. This scenario assumes a midrange of coal use and a relatively high rate of nuclear use over the forecast period. The potential impacts from coal development and use are significant, particularly in the 1990-2020 time period. Practically all available sites suitable for power plant development in the assessment will be utilized by 2020. Overall, sulfur dioxide will be well below the annual primary standard; however, several local hot-spot areas were identified. In addition, sulfate concentrations will be increased significantly, particularly over Virginia, West Virginia, and northern Kentucky. Coal mining is expected to affect 6 of the 12 major ecological regions. Coal mining will lead to increased average suspended sediment concentrations in some river basins, and special measures will be required to control acid discharges from active mines in pyritic regions. The increased mining of coal and subsequent sulfur dioxide increases from its combustion may also give rise to a land-use confrontation with food and fiber production. Potential health effects from exposure to sulfur dioxide and sulfates are expected to increase rapidly in several areas, particularly in parts of Kentucky, Maryland, District of Columbia, and Georgia. Regional social costs should be relatively low, although some site-specific costs are expected to be very high. Alternative energy technologies, careful siting selection, and deployment of environmental control technologies and operating policies will be required to reduce or mitigate these potential impacts.

Berry, L. B.; Bjornstad, D. J.; Boercker, F. D.

1978-01-01

346

Nonparametric Framework for Long-Range Streamflow Forecasting.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The Extended Streamflow Prediction (ESP) procedure of the National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) produces long range forecasts of streamflow through the use of hydrologic models. A nonparametric statistical framework is developed for long...

J. A. Smith G. N. Day M. D. Kane

1991-01-01

347

Forecasting State Government Revenues in Arizona: Some Economic Planning Elements.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

Success in forecasting state tax revenues is dependent upon an ability to forecast changes in the State's major tax revenue bases: income, property value, motor vehicles, and sales. Arizonas economy is closely related to and responsive to the national eco...

R. D. Beeman

1971-01-01

348

Flood-inundation maps for the Saddle River from Upper Saddle River Borough to Saddle River Borough, New Jersey, 2013  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 4.1-mile reach of the Saddle River from 0.6 miles downstream from the New Jersey-New York State boundary in Upper Saddle River Borough to 0.2 miles downstream from the East Allendale Road bridge in Saddle River Borough, New Jersey, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP). The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/, depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to select water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage 01390450, Saddle River at Upper Saddle River, New Jersey. Current conditions for estimating near real-time areas of inundation using USGS streamgage information may be obtained on the Internet at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv?site_no=01390450. The National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts flood hydrographs at many places that are often collocated with USGS streamgages. NWS-forecasted peak-stage information may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. In this study, flood profiles were computed for the stream reach by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The model was calibrated by using the most current stage-discharge relations (in effect March 2013) at USGS streamgage 01390450, Saddle River at Upper Saddle River, New Jersey, and documented high-water marks from recent floods. The hydraulic model was then used to determine eight water-surface profiles for flood stages at 0.5-foot (ft) intervals referenced to the streamgage datum, North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88), and ranging from bankfull, 0.5 ft below NWS Action Stage, to the upper extent of the stage-discharge rating which is approximately 1 ft higher than the highest recorded water level at the streamgage. Action Stage is the stage which when reached by a rising stream the NWS or a partner needs to take some type of mitigation action in preparation for possible significant hydrologic activity. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system 3-meter (9.84 ft) digital elevation model (derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data) in order to delineate the area flooded at each water level. The availability of these maps along with real-time streamflow data and information regarding current stage from USGS streamgages and forecasted stream stages from the NWS provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities, such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for post-flood recovery efforts.

Watson, Kara M.; Hoppe, Heidi L.

2013-01-01

349

Precipitation forecasts for rainfall runoff predictions. A case study in poorly gauged Ribb and Gumara catchments, upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quantitative precipitation forecasts were used in flow forecasting of two catchments.QPF flow forecasts performed better than those using monthly mean rainfall.In poorly gauged catchments using QPFs is helpful to indicate upcoming floods.Freely available atmospheric products can provide information for peak flow events.

Seyoum, Mesgana; van Andel, Schalk Jan; Xuan, Yunqing; Amare, Kibreab

350

Developing air quality forecasts  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Third International Workshop on Air Quality Forecasting Research; Potomac, Maryland, 29 November to 1 December 2011 Elevated concentrations of both near-surface ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter smaller than 2.5 micrometers in diameter have been implicated in increased mortality and other human health impacts. In light of these known influences on human health, many governments around the world have instituted air quality forecasting systems to provide their citizens with advance warning of impending poor air quality so that they can take actions to limit exposure. In an effort to improve the performance of air quality forecasting systems and provide a forum for the exchange of the latest research in air quality modeling, the International Workshop on Air Quality Forecasting Research (IWAQFR) was established in 2009 and is cosponsored by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Environment Canada (EC), and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The steering committee for IWAQFR's establishment was composed of Véronique Bouchet, Mike Howe, and Craig Stoud (EC); Greg Carmichael (University of Iowa); Paula Davidson and Jim Meagher (NOAA); and Liisa Jalkanen (WMO). The most recent workshop took place in Maryland.

Lee, Pius; Saylor, Rick; Meagher, James

2012-05-01

351

Delivering integrated HAZUS-MH flood loss analyses and flood inundation maps over the Web  

USGS Publications Warehouse

Catastrophic flooding is responsible for more loss of life and damages to property than any other natural hazard. Recently developed flood inundation mapping technologies make it possible to view the extent and depth of flooding on the land surface over the Internet; however, by themselves these technologies are unable to provide estimates of losses to property and infrastructure. The Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA's) HAZUS-MH software is extensively used to conduct flood loss analyses in the United States, providing a nationwide database of population and infrastructure at risk. Unfortunately, HAZUS-MH requires a dedicated Geographic Information System (GIS) workstation and a trained operator, and analyses are not adapted for convenient delivery over the Web. This article describes a cooperative effort by the US Geological Survey (USGS) and FEMA to make HAZUS-MH output GIS and Web compatible and to integrate these data with digital flood inundation maps in USGS’s newly developed Inundation Mapping Web Portal. By running the computationally intensive HAZUS-MH flood analyses offline and converting the output to a Web-GIS compatible format, detailed estimates of flood losses can now be delivered to anyone with Internet access, thus dramatically increasing the availability of these forecasts to local emergency planners and first responders.

Hearn, Paul P., Jr.; Longenecker, Herbert E., III; Aguinaldo, John J.; Rahav, Ami N.

2013-01-01

352

Reasonable Forecasts  

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

|This article presents a sample legal battle that illustrates school officials' "reasonable forecasts" of substantial disruption in the school environment. In 2006, two students from a Texas high school came to school carrying purses decorated with images of the Confederate flag. The school district has a zero-tolerance policy for clothing or…

Taylor, Kelley R.

2010-01-01

353

Development of Operational Hydrologic Forecasting Capabilities  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Two obstacles limit the use of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model output in hydrologic prediction systems. First, meteorological forecasts from current-day NWP models are laden with biases. Secondly, NWP model forecasts at the space/time scales used in hydrologic models are unreliable. Both of these obstacles can be overcome through statistical downscaling using Model Output Statistics (MOS), where the development of empirical relationships between grid point values of NWP output (e.g., vertical velocity, total column precipitable water, static stability) and observed data (e.g., maximum temperature at a point location) provide a statistical correction of NWP forecasts. However, statistical intervention using MOS is difficult to apply in practice because operational modeling centers continually update ("improve") forecast models. Such frequent updates ensures a state-of-the-art forecasting system, but severely degrades the utility of archived forecasts from previous versions of the NWP models. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Diagnostics Center (CDC), in collaboration with the Climate Research Division of SCRIPPS, is generating a re-forecast data set using a fixed version (circa 1998) of the NCEP operational NWP model. In this study, we statistically downscale the forecast archive to improve model forecasts of precipitation and temperature, and assess the benefits of a fixed version of the NWP model for hydrologic predictions. Results from cross-validated prediction experiments show that statistically downscaled forecasts of precipitation and temperature are free of systematic biases, and of higher skill than the raw NWP output. These downscaled NWP forecasts are used as input to hydrologic models in select river basins in the contiguous United States, and the performance of the NWP-based forecasts is compared against the National Weather Service (NWS) Extended Streamflow Prediction (ESP) procedure. Hydrologic forecasts made using statistically downscaled fixed NWP output were significantly more accurate, both in terms of deterministic and probabilistic forecast skill, than hydrologic forecasts made using the NWS ESP approach. Forecast improvements were most pronounced in snowmelt-dominated river basins, where short-term variations in runoff are more strongly influenced by variations in temperature than variations in precipitation. Hydrologic forecasts based on raw (uncorrected) NWP output were of similar accuracy, and in some cases worse, than the NWS ESP forecasts. For the purposes of hydrologic prediction, it is preferable to use an older fixed version of the NWP model with a long archive of forecasts than to have a current state-of-the-art NWP model that includes no forecast archive at all.

Clark, M. P.; Hay, L. E.; Whitaker, J. S.

2001-12-01

354

12 CFR 208.25 - Loans in areas having special flood hazards.  

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

... false Loans in areas having special flood hazards. 208.25 Section 208.25...208.25 Loans in areas having special flood hazards. (a) Purpose and scope ...implement the requirements of the National Flood Insurance Act of 1968 and the Flood...

2013-01-01

355

Tsunami Forecast for Galapagos Islands  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The objective of this study is to present a model for the short-term and long-term tsunami forecast for Galapagos Islands. For both cases the ComMIT/MOST(Titov,et al 2011) numerical model and methodology have been used. The results for the short-term model has been compared with the data from Lynett et al, 2011 surveyed from the impacts of the March/11 in the Galapagos Islands. For the case of long-term forecast, several scenarios have run along the Pacific, an extreme flooding map is obtained, the method is considered suitable for places with poor or without tsunami impact information, but under tsunami risk geographic location.

Renteria, W.

2012-04-01

356

King Tide floods in Tuvalu  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The spatial and temporal distributions of sea level rise present regional floods in some certain areas. The low-lying island countries are obviously the spots affected severely. Tuvalu, an atoll island country located in the south-west Pacific Ocean, is suffering the devastating effects of losing life, property, and intending migration caused by floods. They blame the regional flooding to King Tide, a term used but not clearly identified by Pacific islanders. In this study, we clarify what King Tide is first. By the tide gauge and topography data, we estimated the reasonable value of 3.2 m as the threshold of King Tide. This definition also fits to the statement by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of King Tide occurring once or twice a year. In addition, We cross validate the 19 yr data of tide gauge and satellite altimeter (1993-2012), the correlation coefficient indicates King Tide phenomenon is considerable connected to warm water mass. The 28 King Tide events revealed the fact that flooding can be referenced against spring tide levels, so can it be turned up by warm water mass. The warm water mass pushes up sea level; once spring tide, storm surge, or other climate variability overlaps it, the rising sea level might overflow and so has been called "King Tide" for the floods in Tuvalu. This study provides more understanding of the signals of King Tide and an island country case study of regional sea level rise.

Lin, C.-C.; Ho, C.-R.; Cheng, Y.-H.

2013-05-01

357

New Techniques for Real-Time Stage Forecasting for Tributaries in the Nashville Area  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

On Saturday, May 1, 2010, heavy rain began falling in the Cumberland River Valley, Tennessee, and continued through the following day. 13.5 inches was measured at Nashville, an unprecedented amount that doubled the previous 2-day record, and exceeded the May monthly total record of 11 inches. Elsewhere in the valley, amounts of over 19 inches were measured. This intensity of rainfall quickly overwhelmed tributaries to the Cumberland in the Nashville area, causing wide-spread and serious flooding. Tractor-trailers and houses were seen floating down Mill Creek, a primary tributary in the south eastern area of Nashville. Twenty-six people died and over 2 billion dollars in damage occurred as a result of the flood. Since that time, several other significant rainfall events have occurred in the area. As a result of the flood, agencies in the Nashville area want better capabilities to forecast stages for the local tributaries. Better stage forecasting will help local agencies close roads, evacuate homes and businesses and similar actions. An interagency group, consisting of Metro Nashville Water Services and Office of Emergency Management, the National Weather Service, the US Geological Survey and the US Army Corps of Engineers, has been established to seek ways to better forecast short-term events in the region. It should be noted that the National Weather Service has the official responsibility of forecasting stages. This paper examines techniques and algorithms that are being developed to meet this need and the practical aspects of integrating them into a usable product that can quickly and accurately forecast stages in the short-time frame of the tributaries. This includes not only the forecasting procedure, but also the procedure to acquire the latest precipitation and stage data to make the forecasts. These procedures are integrated into the program HEC-RTS, the US Army Corps of Engineers Real-Time Simulation program. HEC-RTS is a Java-based integration tool that has been derived from the Corps Water Management System (CWMS). The modeling component takes observed and forecasted rainfall to compute river flow with the program HEC-HMS. The river hydraulics program, HEC-RAS, computes river stages and water surface profiles. An inundation boundary and depth map of water in the flood plain is computed from HEC-RAS Mapper. The user-configurable sequence of modeling software allows engineers to evaluate and compare hydraulic impacts for various "what if?" scenarios. The implementation of these techniques and HEC-RTS is examined for the Mill Creek basin, the 108 square mile tributary basin south east of Nashville. Mill Creek has an average annual flow of 150 CFS and a short response time. It has suffered major damage from the 2010 and other events. The accuracy and effectiveness of the techniques in the integrated tool HEC-RTS is evaluated.

Charley, W.; Moran, B.; LaRosa, J.

2011-12-01

358

Estimation of the Relative Severity of Floods in Small Ungauged Catchments for Preliminary Observations on Flash Flood Preparedness: A Case Study in Korea  

PubMed Central

An increase in the occurrence of sudden local flooding of great volume and short duration has caused significant danger and loss of life and property in Korea as well as many other parts of the World. Since such floods usually accompanied by rapid runoff and debris flow rise quite quickly with little or no advance warning to prevent flood damage, this study presents a new flash flood indexing methodology to promptly provide preliminary observations regarding emergency preparedness and response to flash flood disasters in small ungauged catchments. Flood runoff hydrographs are generated from a rainfall-runoff model for the annual maximum rainfall series of long-term observed data in the two selected small ungauged catchments. The relative flood severity factors quantifying characteristics of flood runoff hydrographs are standardized by the highest recorded maximum value, and then averaged to obtain the flash flood index only for flash flood events in each study catchment. It is expected that the regression equations between the proposed flash flood index and rainfall characteristics can provide the basis database of the preliminary information for forecasting the local flood severity in order to facilitate flash flood preparedness in small ungauged catchments.

Kim, Eung Seok; Choi, Hyun Il

2012-01-01

359

Impact on hydrological confidence intervals on floods damage potential estimations  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hydrological knowledge is essential for the production of flood hazard maps, the base of flood risk evaluation processes. Hydrological analyses including uncertainty quantification are necessary for understanding river flow variations overtime and determining floods occurrence probability. Beyond flood maps production, flood frequency analyses are necessary for quantifying the flood risk, i.e. combination of the flood events probabilities of occurrence and the associated consequences. These evaluations of floods damage potential and their economic risks are essential for flood management studies. Even though hydrologic uncertainty is considered the major source of uncertainty on flood damage evaluations, few studies analyze how they are propagated into the damage evaluation process. No standards exist for determining uncertainty acceptance levels for hydrological analyses. In France, the confidence interval of 70% and 90% of the peak discharge value is generally used for rural areas and urban areas, respectively. Despite that the choice of the confidence interval is determinant to the results of hydrological analyzes, no studies were developed for quantifying the impact of this choice on flood damages estimations. This work presents how the methods used for analyzing measured gauged series and the considered confidence interval influence the results of future floods damage evaluations. The Bruche's River case study, in France, was retained with this purpose. Firstly, we analyzed how discharge and frequency forecasts were affected by the statistical distribution retained. Four statistical distributions were compared during the analyses: GEV, Gumbel, Lognormal, and Pearson distribution. Two confidence intervals were adopted for determining flood flow return periods, 70% and 90%, respectively. We analysed uncertainty propagation, linked both to the choice of the statistical distribution and its confidence intervals, in the production of flood maps and further on the evaluation of flood damages. 108 flood maps produced using the different approaches were used for quantifying flood damages and expected annual damages. The choice of statistical distributions strongly influenced the results of damage evaluations, e.g. the expected annual damage estimations may double depending on the distribution used. The variability of results induced by the choice of the confidence intervals was higher than that associated to statistical distributions, e.g. when using different confidence intervals, expected annual damages were 6 times higher using different methods. Therefore, the uncertainty acceptance levels for hydrological analyses should receive more attention when producing flood maps, especially when those maps are used for quantifying monetary damages of floods.

Eleuterio, J.; Mosé, R.; Rozan, A.; Payraudeau, S.

2012-04-01

360

Franklin's Forecast  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

As part of the Franklin Institute of Science Museum, the Franklin's Forecast Web site provides several weather-related activities and information geared to kids. Visitors can learn about El Nino, lightening, weather satellites, and radar; build a weather station; check what the weather is right now; and more. As part of making a weather station, kids can surprisingly build a barometer, hygrometer, rain gauge, weather vane, and compass, all from (mostly) ordinary objects around the house. Students are also encouraged to begin a weather journal along with the weather station to learn how to collect and compare data among themselves and other sources, like those found within the site. As a learning tool and information source, Franklin's Forecast does a good job of providing everything that may be needed for students to grasp the basic concepts of weather and meteorology.

1997-01-01

361

Franklin's Forecast  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Weather related information that includes weather satellites (their history, science, and imaging), Radar (history, detection, and types), and lightning (how it happens and detection) can be found on this site. An interactive section allows users to practice forecasting. There are links to up-to-date weather information and a make your own weather station project. The El Nino section discusses major topics surrounding this weather phenomenon. For teachers, there are links to more activities and a curriculum connection section.

362

A Large-Scale Experiment to Determine the Effectiveness of Controlled Floods and Tamarisk Removal in Rehabilitating the Green River, Dinosaur National Monument, Colorado  

Microsoft Academic Search

A large-scale field experiment is underway on the Green River in the Canyon of Lodore to evaluate the effectiveness of tamarisk (Tamarix ramosissima) removal and increased magnitude and duration of floods released from Flaming Gorge Dam (FGD) for the purpose of increasing active channel width and increasing entrainment rates on gravel bars where there are large proportions of fines. Results

J. C. Schmidt; D. J. Cooper; G. P. Larson

2002-01-01

363

Atmospheric predictors for major floods in the Negev Desert, Israel  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The study examines the ability of a set of atmospheric variables to predict major floods in the Negev Desert in the southern part of Israel. The two dominant synoptic types, which contributed over 70% of the major floods during 1965-94 in that region, were examined. These are: the active Red Sea trough (ARST), a surface trough along the Red Sea, combined with a pronounced upper trough; and the Syrian low (SL), an intense Mediterranean cyclone centred over Syria.For each synoptic type, a set of atmospheric variables (predictors) was chosen to reflect its unique atmospheric features, and a prediction score was calculated as the ratio between the number of flood-producing storms and the total number of events in which all the variables exceeded their threshold values.The prediction score for the ARST type is 86%. Moreover, the predictors identify the major flood dates without any false date (100%) for 4 of the 5 months in which major floods of this type had occurred. Most of the predictors are found at the 500 hPa level, and the most powerful is the v/u ratio, which represents the southerly wind component and is responsible for the transport of moist tropical air masses (essential for convection) toward the Middle East. The prediction score for the SL type is 73%. The intensity and structure of the surface cyclone are found to be most powerful predictors, although the importance of geopotential height at 500 hPa indicates that these types of flood depend on the combined effect of several factors. Transforming these remarkably high scores into a high-skill operational forecast of major floods in the Negev requires reliable forecast models to supply the desired variables with reasonable accuracy. It seems that the current operational models, together with our derived predictors, have the potential to yield a successful forecast of major floods 2 days in advance.

Kahana, Ron; Ziv, Baruch; Dayan, Uri; Enzel, Yehouda

2004-07-01

364

Flash Flood Warning System - One Model, Two Methods  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

This paper presents recent flash flood warning developments in small catchments in Southern Austria. The work is carried out in close cooperation between end-users and developers. Two different methods following the specific needs of the end-users are tested. The first method is a simple and robust flood catalogue approach where the catalogue is a compilation of historical flood peaks and flood peaks derived from simulated scenarios. Food peaks are predicted offline depending on the precipitation amount and duration as well as the antecedent soil moisture conditions. Soil moisture is stratified into four classes ("very wet", "wet", "dry", "very dry"), and precipitation amount is calculated for one, three and six hours. The second method is based on the development of an operational hydrological flood forecasting system. For both methods the same hydrological model is used - the spatially distributed continuous model KAMPUS (Blöschl et al., 2008) - with the same structure and parameters. For generating the flood scenarios in the catalogue the model is used as an event based model. The methods are tested in the well-equipped catchment of the Sulm River (1100km2) in western Styria with sub catchment sizes in the range of 30 to 300km2. The model is calibrated to a runoff data set from 1999 to 2009 comprising a wide range of hydro-meteorological conditions. For flood warning, in the first method the user manually characterizes the actual soil moisture conditions in the catchments and retrieves forecasted precipitation amounts for the three precipitation durations defined above. This information allows the user to estimate a range of possible flood peaks in the catalogue. Using the second method one flood peak is simulated for each forecast point in a deterministic manner. In both cases the resulting flood peaks are compared to a critical discharge according to different warning levels. For method one only one critical discharge (bankfull) is defined, whereas method two includes three warning levels corresponding to different discharge values with different return periods. Blöschl, G., Ch. Reszler & J. Komma (2008): A spatially distributed flash flood forecasting model. Environmental Modelling & Software, 23, 4; 464-478; doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2007.06.010

Ruch, C.; Reszler, C.; Rock, G.; Plieschnegger, M.

2012-04-01

365

Customer Requirements for Hydrologic Forecast Uncertainty Information  

Microsoft Academic Search

The National Weather Service (NWS) issues long-term probabilistic streamflow forecasts through the NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) web site and is developing methods to issue short-term probabilistic streamflow forecasts. Through customer evaluations of the AHPS web site it became clear that customers do not fully understand the probabilistic graphics and how the information conveyed could be used to make

M. G. Mullusky; S. Teodoru; F. Richards

2006-01-01

366

River Flood Animation  

NSDL National Science Digital Library

Use this animation to learn about floods. You will learn about drainage basins, discharge, hydrographs, floodplain deposition, and infiltration. You will also learn about the frequency of floods and what we are doing to control them.

2002-01-01

367

Flood Management in India  

Microsoft Academic Search

In this paper, flood problems in India, regional variabilityof the problem, present status of the ongoing management measures, their effectiveness and futureneeds in flood management are covered. Flood problems in India are presented by four zonesof flooding, viz. (a) Brahmaputra River Basin, (b) Ganga River Basin, (c) North-WestRivers Basin, and (d) Central India and Deccan Rivers Basin. Some special problems,related

P. K. Mohapatra; R. D. Singh

2003-01-01

368

A pilot operational flood warning system in Andalusia (Spain): presentation and first results  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The Guadalhorce Basin is located in Andalusia (South of Spain). Its floods have historically represented a major hazard for the city of Málaga. In 2008 it has been decided to implement a pilot operational flood warning system (GFWS) with the aim of analyzing the capability to minimize the risk to people, and economic activity, as well as for guiding water resources management. The system is oriented to provide distributed warnings based on rainfall accumulations and discharge forecasts. Rainfall accumulation maps are generated according to the interpolation of rain gauge measurements and weather radar rainfall maps whereas discharge forecasts are computed using a distributed rainfall-runoff model. Due to the lack of flow measurements, the model was calibrated a priori in most of the basin area. The performance of the system has been tested on two recent rainfall events which caused many inundations. First results show how the GFWS performed well and was able to forecast the location and timing of flooding. It demonstrates that a simple model and a rough calibration could be enough to issue valuable warnings. Moreover, the European Flood Alert System (EFAS) forecasts have been used to prevent from the flood several days in advance. With low resolution and long anticipation, EFAS appears as a good complement tool to improve flood forecasting and compensate for the short lead times of the GFWS.

Versini, P.-A.; Berenguer, M.; Corral, C.; Sempere-Torres, D.; Santiago-Gahete, A.

2011-11-01

369

California 2011-2040 County-Level Economic Forecast.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The 2011 county-level long term forecast for all 58 counties of California is presented in this edition of the CalTrans Economic Forecast. The forecast was conducted from June 2011 through August 2011. Actual information for the state, the nation and the ...

M. Schniepp

2011-01-01

370

California 2010-2035 County-Level Economic Forecast.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The 2010 county-level long term forecast for all 58 counties of California is presented in this edition of the Caltrans Economic Forecast. The forecast was conducted from November 2009 through February 2010. Actual information for the state, the nation an...

M. Schniepp

2010-01-01

371

California 2012-2040 County-Level Economic Forecast.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The 2012 county-level long term forecast for all 58 counties of California is presented in this edition of the CalTrans Economic Forecast. The forecast was conducted from June 2012 through September 2012. Actual information for the state, the nation and t...

M. Schniepp

2012-01-01

372

Commuter Airline Forecasts.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

This publication presents forecasts of commuter air carrier activity and describes the models designed for forecasting Conterminous United States, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, Hawaii, and individual airport activity. These forecasts take into accou...

H. Medville C. Starry G. Bernstein

1981-01-01

373

Global warming: Forecasts by scientists versus scientific forecasts  

Microsoft Academic Search

In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Working Group One, a panel of experts established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme, issued its Fourth Assessment Report. The Report included predictions of dramatic increases in average world temperatures over the next 92 years and serious harm resulting from the predicted temperature increases. Using forecasting principles

Kesten C. Green; J. Scott Armstrong

2007-01-01

374

Seasonal streamflow forecasting with the global hydrological forecasting system FEWS-World  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The year-to-year variability of river discharge brings about risks and opportunities in water resources management. Reliable hydrological forecasts and effective communication allow several sectors to make more informed management decisions. In many developing regions of the world, there are no efficient hydrological forecasting systems. For these regions, a global forecasting system which indicates increased probabilities of streamflow excesses or shortages over long lead-times can be of great value. FEWS-World is developed for this purpose. The system incorporates the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB and delivers streamflow forecasts on a global scale. This study investigates the skill and value of FEWS-World. Skill is defined as the ability of the system to forecast discharge extremes; and value is its usefulness for possible users and ultimately for affected populations. Skill is assessed in historical simulation mode as well as retroactive forecasting mode. The eventual goal is to transfer FEWS-World to operational forecasting mode, where the system will use operational seasonal forecasts from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The results will be disseminated on the internet to provide valuable information for users in data and model-poor regions of the world. The preliminary skill assessment of PCR-GLOBWB in reproducing flow extremes is carried out for a selection of 20 large rivers of the world. The model is run for a historical period, with a meteorological forcing data set based on observations from the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, and the ERA-40 reanalysis of ECMWF. Model skill in reproducing monthly anomalies as well as floods and droughts is assessed by applying verification measures developed for deterministic meteorological forecasts. The results of this preliminary analysis shows that even where the simulated hydrographs are biased, higher skills can be attained in reproducing monthly anomalies and extreme events. The prospects for seasonal/monthly forecasting of hydrological extremes are therefore positive. Next, the true skill of the global hydrological forecasting system FEWS-World is assessed in retroactive forecasting mode, using seasonal meteorological forecasts subject to uncertainty from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The system is forced with ensemble seasonal meteorological forecasts from the seasonal forecast archives of ECMWF. We assess the skill of FEWS-World in forecasting monthly anomalies and extreme events on a range of different lead-times by applying verification measures for ensemble forecasts. Although forecasting skill decreases with increasing lead time, the value of forecasts does not necessarily do so. The real value of a forecast is to be determined on the basis of the benefits and costs of possible actions that can be taken in response to a forecast, provided that information on forecast reliability is properly communicated. A preliminary investigation of the forecast requirements and response options of several sectors over lead times from short-range through medium-range to monthly and seasonal show that most sectors benefit from seasonal forecasts to prepare for appropriate response.

Candogan Yossef, N.; Van Beek, L. P.; Winsemius, H.; Bierkens, M. F.

2011-12-01

375

Climate informed monthly streamflow forecasts for the Brazilian hydropower network using a periodic ridge regression model  

Microsoft Academic Search

summary Streamflow simulation and forecasts have been widely used in water resources management, particularly for flood and drought analysis and for the determination of optimal operational rules for reservoir sys- tems used for water supply and energy production. Here we include climate information in a periodic- auto-regressive model in order to provide monthly streamflow forecasts for 54 hydropower sites in

Carlos H. R. Lima; Upmanu Lall

2010-01-01

376

Measuring consensus in binary forecasts: NFL game predictions  

Microsoft Academic Search

Previous research on defining and measuring consensus (agreement) among forecasters has been concerned with the evaluation of forecasts of continuous variables. This previous work is not relevant when the forecasts involve binary decisions: up-down or win-lose. In this paper we use Cohen’s kappa coefficient, a measure of inter-rater agreement involving binary choices, to evaluate forecasts of National Football League games.

ChiUng Song; Bryan L. Boulier; Herman O. Stekler

2009-01-01

377

Statistical Methods for Solar Flare Probability Forecasting.  

National Technical Information Service (NTIS)

The Space Environment Services Center (SESC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration provides probability forecasts of regional solar flare disturbances. This report describes a statistical method useful to obtain 24 hour solar flare foreca...

D. F. Vecchia P. V. Tryon G. Caldwell R. H. Jones

1980-01-01

378

Energy demand forecasting  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Energy demand forecasting and its connection with national energy policies and decisions is examined in light of recent, sharply revised estimates of future energy requirements. Techniques of economic projects are examined. Modeling of energy demands is discussed. Renewable energy sources are discussed. The shift away from reliance of domestic users on oil and natural gas toward electricity as a primary energy resource is examined in the context of the need to conserve energy and expand generating capacity in order to avoid a significant electricity shortfall.

379

Climate Change Impacts to Flooding Damages in the U.S.  

EPA Science Inventory

A national-scale analysis of potential changes in monetary damages from flooding under climate change. The approach uses empirically based statistical relationships between historical precipitation and flood damage records from 18 hydrologic regions of the United States, along w...

380

Biological implications of the 1996 controlled flood  

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The 1996 controlled flood provided evidence that elevated releases from Glen Canyon Dam can enhance short-term primary and secondary production of aquatic resources of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon National Park. The flood scoured substantial proportions of benthic algae and macroinvertebrates and removed fine sediments from the channel, which ultimately stimulated primary productivity and consumer biomass. Channel margin sand deposits buried riparian vegetation and leaf litter, entraining nutrients for later incorporation into the upper trophic levels. The flood restructured high-stage sand bars and associated eddy return channels (i.e., backwaters used as nurseries by native and non-native fish), but many were short-lived because reattachment bars were eroded shortly after the flood. The flood was of insufficient magnitude to permanently suppress non-native fish populations, even though there was significant population depletion at some collecting sites. Pre-spawning aggregations, spawning ascents of tributaries, and habitat use by native fishes were unaffected by the flood. Adult rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in the Lees Ferry tailwater fishery were also unaffected, but the proportion of juveniles <152 mm total length decreased by 10% a strong year class following the flood indicated replacement through successful reproduction.

Valdez, Richard A.; Shannon, Joseph P.; Blinn, Dean W.