Sample records for national flood forecasting

  1. Experiences from coordinated national-level landslide and flood forecasting in Norway

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krøgli, Ingeborg; Fleig, Anne; Glad, Per; Dahl, Mads-Peter; Devoli, Graziella; Colleuille, Hervé

    2015-04-01

    While flood forecasting at national level is quite well established and operational in many countries worldwide, landslide forecasting at national level is still seldom. Examples of coordinated flood and landslide forecasting are even rarer. Most of the time flood and landslide forecasters work separately (investigating, defining thresholds, and developing models) and most of the time without communication with each other. One example of coordinated operational early warning systems (EWS) for flooding and shallow landslides is found at the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) in Norway. In this presentation we give an introduction to the two separate but tightly collaborative EWSs and to the coordination of these. The two EWSs are being operated from the same office, every day using similar hydro-meteorological prognosis and hydrological models. Prognosis and model outputs on e.g. discharge, snow melt, soil water content and exceeded landslide thresholds are evaluated in a web based decision-making tool (xgeo.no). The experts performing forecasts are hydrologists, geologists and physical geographers. A similar warning scale, based on colors (green, yellow, orange and red) is used for both EWSs, however thresholds for flood and landslide warning levels are defined differently. Also warning areas may not necessary be the same for both hazards and depending on the specific meteorological event, duration of the warning periods can differ. We present how knowledge, models and tools, but also human and economic resources are being shared between the two EWSs. Moreover, we discuss challenges faced in the communication of warning messages using recent flood and landslide events as examples.

  2. Real-time flood forecasting

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lai, C.; Tsay, T.-K.; Chien, C.-H.; Wu, I.-L.

    2009-01-01

    Researchers at the Hydroinformatic Research and Development Team (HIRDT) of the National Taiwan University undertook a project to create a real time flood forecasting model, with an aim to predict the current in the Tamsui River Basin. The model was designed based on deterministic approach with mathematic modeling of complex phenomenon, and specific parameter values operated to produce a discrete result. The project also devised a rainfall-stage model that relates the rate of rainfall upland directly to the change of the state of river, and is further related to another typhoon-rainfall model. The geographic information system (GIS) data, based on precise contour model of the terrain, estimate the regions that were perilous to flooding. The HIRDT, in response to the project's progress, also devoted their application of a deterministic model to unsteady flow of thermodynamics to help predict river authorities issue timely warnings and take other emergency measures.

  3. Flood Forecasting Case Study: International Edition

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    COMET

    2011-05-17

    This module allows users to explore the flood forecasting process by assuming the role of a visiting hydrologist intern at the National Hydrologic Service in Main Country. Fictional senior hydrologists guide the intern through an idealized flooding event that takes place over Main Country's Mainstem river basin and its tributary basins, each with varying landscapes and observation systems. Users will examine how these variations impact the quality and type of forecast that can be achieved. Users will also learn about common problems encountered in flood forecasting, and how to adjust forecasts accordingly. This module is intended for a diverse audience that uses a variety of observing and computing technologies, and builds upon material covered in the foundation topics of the International Basic Hydrologic Sciences Course. These core foundation topics are recommended as a prerequisite since this module assumes some pre-existing knowledge of hydrologic principles.

  4. Flood forecasting for Tucurui Hydroelectrical Plant, Brazil

    SciTech Connect

    Solomon, S.I.; Basso, E.; Osorio, C.; Melo de Moraes, H.; Serrano, A.

    1986-04-01

    The construction of the Tucurui Hydroelectric Plant on the Tocantins River basin in Brazil requires flood forecasting to ensure the safety of the cofferdam. The latter has been initially designed for a flood with a return frequency of one in 25 years. Lack of adequate forecasting facilities during the earlier stages of construction has resulted in significant damages and construction delays. Statistical forecasting models were developed by Projeto de Hidrologia y Climatologie da Amazonia (PHCA) for the purpose of preventing further damage at the site. The application of these models during the 1980 flood season, when the highest flood on record occurred at the Tucurui site, proved of great assistance in preventing the flooding of the cofferdam. In conjunction with the development of these models a number of data collection platforms using data transmission through the GOES system were installed to provide the data required for forecasting.

  5. National Flood Interoperability Experiment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maidment, D. R.

    2014-12-01

    The National Flood Interoperability Experiment is led by the academic community in collaboration with the National Weather Service through the new National Water Center recently opened on the Tuscaloosa campus of the University of Alabama. The experiment will also involve the partners in IWRSS (Integrated Water Resources Science and Services), which include the USGS, the Corps of Engineers and FEMA. The experiment will address the following questions: (1) How can near-real-time hydrologic forecasting at high spatial resolution, covering the nation, be carried out using the NHDPlus or next generation geofabric (e.g. hillslope, watershed scales)? (2) How can this lead to improved emergency response and community resilience? (3) How can improved an improved interoperability framework support the first two goals and lead to sustained innovation in the research to operations process? The experiment will run from September 2014 through August 2015, in two phases. The mobilization phase from September 2014 until May 2015 will assemble the components of the interoperability framework. A Summer Institute to integrate the components will be held from June to August 2015 at the National Water Center involving faculty and students from the University of Alabama and other institutions coordinated by CUAHSI. It is intended that the insight that arises from this experiment will help lay the foundation for a new national scale, high spatial resolution, near-real-time hydrologic simulation system for the United States.

  6. Forecasting Extreme Flooding in South Asia (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Webster, P. J.

    2010-12-01

    In most years there is extensive flooding across India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. On average, 40 million people are displaced by floods in India and half that many again in Bangladesh. Occasionally, even more extensive and severe flooding occurs across South Asia. In 2007 and 2008 the Brahmaputra flooded three times causing severe disruption of commerce, agriculture and life in general. Systems set up by an international collaboration predicted these Bangladesh floods with an operational system at the 10 and 15-day horizon. These forecasts determined the risk of flooding and allowed the Bangladeshis in peril to prepare, harvesting crops and storing of household and agricultural assets. Savings in increments of annual income resulted form the forecasts. In July and August 2010, severe flooding occurred in Pakistan causing horrendous damage and loss of life. But these floods were also predictable at the 10-day time scale if the same forecasting system developed for Bangladesh had been implemented. Similar systems could be implemented in India but would require local cooperation. We describe the manner in which quantified probabilistic precipitation forecasts, coupled with hydrological models can provide useful and timely extended warnings of flooding.

  7. Recent advances in flood forecasting and flood risk assessment

    Microsoft Academic Search

    G. Arduino; P. Reggiani; E. Todini

    2005-01-01

    Recent large floods in Europe have led to increased interest in research and development of flood forecasting systems. Some of these events have been provoked by some of the wettest rainfall periods on record which has led to speculation that such extremes are attributable in some measure to anthropogenic global warming and represent the beginning of a period of higher

  8. Flood Forecasting in Wales: Challenges and Solutions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    How, Andrew; Williams, Christopher

    2015-04-01

    With steep, fast-responding river catchments, exposed coastal reaches with large tidal ranges and large population densities in some of the most at-risk areas; flood forecasting in Wales presents many varied challenges. Utilising advances in computing power and learning from best practice within the United Kingdom and abroad have seen significant improvements in recent years - however, many challenges still remain. Developments in computing and increased processing power comes with a significant price tag; greater numbers of data sources and ensemble feeds brings a better understanding of uncertainty but the wealth of data needs careful management to ensure a clear message of risk is disseminated; new modelling techniques utilise better and faster computation, but lack the history of record and experience gained from the continued use of more established forecasting models. As a flood forecasting team we work to develop coastal and fluvial forecasting models, set them up for operational use and manage the duty role that runs the models in real time. An overview of our current operational flood forecasting system will be presented, along with a discussion on some of the solutions we have in place to address the challenges we face. These include: • real-time updating of fluvial models • rainfall forecasting verification • ensemble forecast data • longer range forecast data • contingency models • offshore to nearshore wave transformation • calculation of wave overtopping

  9. USE OF MESOSCALE WEATHER FORECASTING FOR EARLY FLOOD WARNING ON EUROPEAN SCALE

    Microsoft Academic Search

    A. de Roo; J. Thielen; B. Gouweleeuw; G. Schmuck

    SUMMARY The European Flood Forecasting System project (EFFS) aims at developing a prototype of an integrated European flood forecasting system. This Pan-European early flood warning system is to provide National Water Authorities, Civil Protection Authorities and international aid-organisations with a large lead-time to prepare for possible flood crises. The broad objectives of the still ongoing project are to use operationally

  10. Recent Operational Innovations and Future Developments at the Flood Forecasting Centre

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Millard, Jon; Pilling, Charlie

    2015-04-01

    The Flood Forecasting Centre (FFC) was established in 2009 to give an overview of flood risk across England and Wales and is a partnership between the UK Met Office, the Environment Agency and Natural Resources Wales. Primarily serving the emergency response community, the FFC aims to provide trusted guidance to help protect lives and livelihoods from flooding across England and Wales from its base at the Met Office in Exeter. The flood forecasts consist of an assessment of the likelihood as well as the expected level of impacts of flood events during the next five days. The FFC provide forecasts for all natural sources of flooding, namely; fluvial, coastal, surface water and groundwater but liaise closely with meteorologists at the Met Office and local flood forecasters at the Environment Agency and Natural Resources Wales. Key challenges include providing; forecasts with longer lead times especially for fluvial and coastal events, forecasts at shorter timescales and with more spatial focus for rapid response catchments and surface water events, and also clear communications of forecast uncertainties. As well as operational activities, the FFC run a significant development and improvement programme and are linked in with Met Office and Environment Agency science projects in order to bring new science into operations to try and meet these challenges and improve performance. Latest developments which are now being applied operationally to provide an enhanced flood warning service will be presented. Examples include; the use of the national hydrological model Grid to Grid (G2G) for both fluvial and surface water flooding, extended surge ensembles for coastal flooding, enhancements in the surface water forecasting tool, and improvements to products communicating these forecasts. An overview of the current projects under development will also be provided, including; improvements to data within G2G, surface water hazard impact modelling, 7 day wave ensemble forecasts, regime analysis for longer lead time coastal flood forecasting and improving products and communications.

  11. NOAA Graphical Flood Severity Inundation Mapping: Enhancing River Forecasts with Geographic Information Systems (GIS)

    Microsoft Academic Search

    D. Marcy; T. Donaldson

    2006-01-01

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) provides flood forecast information in a variety of formats, including graphical hydrographs and text products. Beginning in 2002, the NOAA Coastal Services Center (CSC) and NWS have worked in partnership to develop geographic information systems (GIS) based graphical flood severity inundation products. GIS techniques are used along with the

  12. A methodology for forecasting carbon dioxide flooding performance 

    E-print Network

    Marroquin Cabrera, Juan Carlos

    1998-01-01

    A methodology was developed for forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) flooding performance quickly and reliably. The feasibility of carbon dioxide flooding in the Dollarhide Clearfork "AB" Unit was evaluated using the methodology. This technique is very...

  13. Streamflow Forecast Verification in the National Weather Service

    Microsoft Academic Search

    K. Werner; L. Holts

    2008-01-01

    Recent progress in verifying hydrologic forecasts in the NOAA\\/National Weather Service (NWS), USA, has produced interesting results. The NWS produces hydrologic forecasts across timescales from hours to months to support a wide variety of applications including public safety during flooding and economic well being for large scale water management. While these forecasts are a valuable part of the decision making

  14. Prospects for Season-ahead Global Flood Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, D.; Block, P. J.; Ward, P.

    2014-12-01

    Flood events rank as one of the most destructive natural hazards, with associated global economic losses increasing starkly over the past half century. This has drawn attention to prospects for flood forecasts to protect life and livelihoods. Typical forecasts emphasize the short-term (hours to days) scale to inform immediate response action. Longer-range forecasts, on the order of months to seasons, however, could compliment short-range forecasts by focusing on disaster preparedness. Initially, we define key flood seasons globally, at grid and basin scales, which are most likely to contain the most severe annual flood using observational (GRDC) and model (PCR-GLOBWB) streamflow data over 1958-2000. Model-defined flood seasons strongly agree (89% of time) with flood seasons defined through observations. Model-defined flood seasons were also qualitatively verified with actual flood records over 1985-2008 from the Dartmouth Flood Observatory records. Subsequently we have begun investigating the effects of inter-annual climate variability on seasonal maximum floods, particularly how ENSO and other large-scale phenomena may modulate discharge and flood severity. Skillful relationship have led to preliminary seasonal global flood forecast models, at the basin scale, providing early (season-ahead) flood probabilities, flood extent, and estimated damages.

  15. Delft FEWS: An open shell flood forecasting platform

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reggiani, P.; Kwadijk, J. C. J.; Werner, M. G. F.; van Dijk, M. J.; Schellekens, J.; van Kappel, R. R.; Sprokkereef, E.

    2003-04-01

    DELFT FEWS is a flood forecasting system developed over several years at Delft Hydraulics. The main philosophy underlying the system is to provide an open shell tool, that allows integration of arbitrary hydrological and river routing models with meteorological data and numerical weather forecasts. In its actual form DELFT-FEWS constitutes a collection of platform-independent software modules, linked to a central database. The database is used to store historical runoff data from gauging stations, and meteorological data from local and synoptic meteorological stations. These can be updated on-line through direct access to national weather services, weather forecast centres and hydro-meteorological services. In addition, the platform is designed to import and convert numerical weather forecasts produced by weather agencies, and interface them with the database. The system incorporates a wide range of algorithms for data verification, interpolation, model updating and data assimilation. These can be employed for data verification and reconstruction of missing values, as well as for pre processing of meteorological data, such that are made ready for use in hydrological models. The various hydrological and routing models are included into the system via appropriate model adapters, that convert data in the database to specific model data formats and vice versa. In this manner a concatenation of various operational and already tested models into model cascades is facilitated within a single and consistent computational framework. To date the system has been successfully tested with various numerical weather forecasts, including deterministic and ensemble forecasts provided by national weather forecast centres and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast. The hydrodynamic river routing module SOBEK, the LISFLOOD suite of raster-based hydrology and hydraulic codes and the well-known HBV hydrological model were included for the computation of the hydrologic response of major river systems. The main application of the forecasting system within the EFFS project is an early warning system for the river Rhine, providing discharge forecasts with a lead-time between 4 and 10 days. Besides application in the EFFS project the system lies at the heart of flood forecasting systems currently under development in The Netherlands, Switzerland and the United Kingdom.

  16. Using ensemble rainfall predictions in a countrywide flood forecasting model in Scotland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cranston, M. D.; Maxey, R.; Tavendale, A. C. W.; Buchanan, P.

    2012-04-01

    Improving flood predictions for all sources of flooding is at the centre of flood risk management policy in Scotland. With the introduction of the Flood Risk Management (Scotland) Act providing a new statutory basis for SEPA's flood warning responsibilities, the pressures on delivering hydrological science developments in support of this legislation has increased. Specifically, flood forecasting capabilities need to develop in support of the need to reduce the impact of flooding through the provision of actively disseminated, reliable and timely flood warnings. Flood forecasting in Scotland has developed significantly in recent years (Cranston and Tavendale, 2012). The development of hydrological models to predict flooding at a catchment scale has relied upon the application of rainfall runoff models utilising raingauge, radar and quantitative precipitation forecasts in the short lead time (less than 6 hours). Single or deterministic forecasts based on highly uncertain rainfall predictions have led to the greatest operational difficulties when communicating flood risk with emergency responders, therefore the emergence of probability-based estimates offers the greatest opportunity for managing uncertain predictions. This paper presents operational application of a physical-conceptual distributed hydrological model on a countrywide basis across Scotland. Developed by CEH Wallingford for SEPA in 2011, Grid-to-Grid (G2G) principally runs in deterministic mode and employs radar and raingauge estimates of rainfall together with weather model predictions to produce forecast river flows, as gridded time-series at a resolution of 1km and for up to 5 days ahead (Cranston, et al., 2012). However the G2G model is now being run operationally using ensemble predictions of rainfall from the MOGREPS-R system to provide probabilistic flood forecasts. By presenting a range of flood predictions on a national scale through this approach, hydrologists are now able to consider an objective measure of the likelihood of flooding impacts to help with risk based emergency communication.

  17. Fuzzy forecast of flood disaster caused by solar proton flares

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Zhengzhong Han; Yuhua Tang

    1999-01-01

    The flood disaster caused by solar proton flares is forecasted using the theory of fuzzy mathematics. The index system and standards of fuzzy evaluation, as well as the membership function are proposed. A practical software of computer data processing for forecasting flood disaster is given.

  18. Flood Hazards - A National Threat

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    USGS

    This USGS Fact Sheet (2006-3026) illustrates the national scope of the risk of flooding events in the US. The vast majority of counties have experienced at least one presidential disaster declaration related to flooding since 1965. The fact sheet examines the risks and how USGS scientists are studying floods in order to reduce future risks to the US population, property, and infrastructure.

  19. Operational flood forecasting system of Umbria Region "Functional Centre

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berni, N.; Pandolfo, C.; Stelluti, M.; Ponziani, F.; Viterbo, A.

    2009-04-01

    The hydrometeorological alert office (called "Decentrate Functional Centre" - CFD) of Umbria Region, in central Italy, is the office that provides technical tools able to support decisions when significant flood/landslide events occur, furnishing 24h support for the whole duration of the emergency period, according to the national directive DPCM 27 February 2004 concerning the "Operating concepts for functional management of national and regional alert system during flooding and landslide events for civil protection activities purposes" that designs, within the Italian Civil Defence Emergency Management System, a network of 21 regional Functional Centres coordinated by a central office at the National Civil Protection Department in Rome. Due to its "linking" role between Civil Protection "real time" activities and environmental/planning "deferred time" ones, the Centre is in charge to acquire and collect both real time and quasi-static data: quantitative data from monitoring networks (hydrometeorological stations, meteo radar, ...), meteorological forecasting models output, Earth Observation data, hydraulic and hydrological simulation models, cartographic and thematic GIS data (vectorial and raster type), planning studies related to flooding areas mapping, dam managing plans during flood events, non instrumental information from direct control of "territorial presidium". A detailed procedure for the management of critical events was planned, also in order to define the different role of various authorities and institutions involved. Tiber River catchment, of which Umbria region represents the main upper-medium portion, includes also regional trans-boundary issues very important to cope with, especially for what concerns large dam behavior and management during heavy rainfall. The alert system is referred to 6 different warning areas in which the territory has been divided into and based on a threshold system of three different increasing critical levels according to the expected ground effects: ordinary, moderate and high. Particularly, hydrometric and rainfall thresholds for both floods and landslides alarms were assessed. Based on these thresholds, at the Umbria Region Functional Centre an automatic phone-call and SMS alert system is operating. For a real time flood forecasting system, at the CFD several hydrological and hydraulic models were developed. Three rainfall-runoff hydrological models, using different quantitative meteorological forecasts, are available: the event based models X-Nash (based on the Nash theory) and Mike-Drift coupled with the hydraulic model Mike-11 (developed by the Danish Hydraulic Institute - DHI); and the physically-based continuous model Mobidic (MOdello di Bilancio Idrologico DIstribuito e Continuo - Distributed and Continuous Model for the Hydrological Balance, developed by the University of Florence in cooperation with the Functional Centre of Tuscany Region). Other two hydrological models, using observed data of the real time hydrometeorological network, were implemented: the first one is the rainfall-runoff hydrological model Hec-Hms coupled with the hydraulic model Hec-Ras (United States Army Corps of Engineers - USACE). Moreover, Hec-Hms, is coupled also with a continuous soil moisture model for a more precise evaluation of the antecedent moisture condition of the basin, which is a key factor for a correct runoff volume evaluation. The second one is the routing hydrological model Stafom (STage FOrecasting Model, developed by the Italian Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection of the National Research Council - IRPI-CNR). This model is an adaptive model for on-line stage forecasting for river branches where significant lateral inflow contributions occur and, up to now, it is implemented for the main Tiber River branch and it allows a forecasting lead time up to 10 hours for the downstream river section. Recently, during the period between December the 4th and the 16th 2008, Umbria region territory was interested

  20. Mapping Coastal Flood Zones for the National Flood Insurance Program

    Microsoft Academic Search

    D. Carlton; C. L. Cook; J. Weber

    2004-01-01

    The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) was created by Congress in 1968, and significantly amended in 1973 to reduce loss of life and property caused by flooding, reduce disaster relief costs caused by flooding and make Federally backed flood insurance available to property owners. These goals were to be achieved by requiring building to be built to resist flood damages,

  1. Flash flood warnings using the ensemble precipitation forecasting technique: A case study on forecasting floods in Taiwan caused by typhoons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Tsun-Hua; Yang, Sheng-Chi; Ho, Jui-Yi; Lin, Gwo-Fong; Hwang, Gong-Do; Lee, Cheng-Shang

    2015-01-01

    A flash flood is an event that develops rapidly. Given early warnings with sufficient lead time, flood forecasting can help people prepare disaster prevention measures. To provide this early warning, a statistics-based flood forecasting model was developed to evaluate the flooding potential in urban areas using ensemble quantitative precipitation forecasts (the Taiwan Cooperative Precipitation Ensemble Forecast Experiment, TAPEX). The proposed model uses different sources of information, such as (i) the designed capacity of storm sewer systems, (ii) a flood inundation potential database, and (iii) historical flooding observations, to evaluate the potential for flash flooding situations to occur. Using 24-, 48- and 72-h ahead precipitation forecasts from the TAPEX, the proposed model can assess the flooding potential with two levels of risk and at the township scale with a 3-day lead time. The proposed model is applied to Pingtung County, which includes 33 townships and is located in southern Taiwan. A dataset of typhoon storms from 2010 to 2014 was used to evaluate the model performance. The accuracy and threat score for testing events are 0.68 and 0.30, respectively, with a lead time of 24 h. The accuracy and threat score for training events are 0.82 and 0.31, respectively, with a lead time of 24 h. The model performance decreases when the lead time is extended. However, the model demonstrates its potential as a valuable reference to improve emergency responses to alleviate the loss of lives and property due to flooding.

  2. Towards operational flood forecasting using Data Assimilation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piacentini, A.; Ricci, S. M.; Le Pape, E.; Habert, J.; Jonville, G.; Goutal, N.; Barthélémy, S.; Morel, T.; Duchaine, F.; Thual, O.

    2012-12-01

    Over the last few years, a collaborative work between CERFACS, LNHE (EDF R&D), SCHAPI and CETMEF resulted in the implementation of a Data Assimilation (DA) method on top of MASCARET, in the framework of real-time forecasting. This prototype named DAMP (Data Assimilation with MASCARET Prototype) showed promising results on the Adour and Marne catchments as it improves the forecast skills of the hydraulic model using water level and discharge in-situ observations (Ricci et al, 2011) as show in Figure 1. In the existing prototype, data assimilation was implemented with the OpenPalm coupler following two different and sequentially applied approaches based on the Kalman Filter algorithm: the correction of the upstream and lateral inflow to the model and the direct correction of the water level and discharge. As of today both technical and research developments on DAMP are on going. The implementation of DAMP for operational use at SCHAPI is on going within the modeling plateform POM (Plateforme Opérationnelle pour la Modélisation) that will provide integrated numerical models for the major French catchments. The DAMP will also benefits from numerical developments by LNHE on MASCARET that was recently instrumented with interface commands (API) and formulated as an IRF module (Initialize-Run-Finalize). These solutions allow to minimize the interlocking of the DA algorithm and MASCARET sources codes. In addition, the Palm-Parasol functionality in Open-Palm is now used to efficiently spawn an ensemble of MASCARET integrations used to formulate the DA algorithm. Along with these technical aspects, the DA algorithm is also being improved. Sensitivity study carried out: the control vector should be extended, especially to include the Strickler coefficients. An ensemble based DA algorithm (EnKF) is also currently being implemented to improve the modelling of the background error covariance matrix used to distribute the correction to the water level and discharge states when observations are assimilated from observation points to the entire state. Building on the existing prototype and by methodological and theoretical advances, the operational use of the DAMP offers great perspective for the use of DA for flood forecasting with direct application at the French SPC (Service de Prévision des Crues).

  3. Hydrologic ensemble forecasting in the National Weather Service: Status, plans and challenges

    Microsoft Academic Search

    D. Seo; G. M. Bonnin; J. Roe; P. J. Restrepo

    2009-01-01

    Water resources and flood forecast products from short to long ranges which include quantified estimates of uncertainty are one of the most pressing needs in operational hydrologic forecasting today. The National Weather Service (NWS) Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD), in collaboration with the NWS River Forecast Centers, Deltares and other partners, has been developing the Experimental Ensemble Forecast System (XEFS)

  4. Short-term Ensemble Flood Forecasting Experiments in Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Collischonn, Walter; Meller, Adalberto; Fan, Fernando; Moreira, Demerval; Dias, Pedro; Buarque, Diogo; Bravo, Juan

    2013-04-01

    Flood Forecasting and issuing early warnings to communities under risk can help reduce the impacts of those events. However, to be effective, warnings should be given several hours in advance. The best solution to extend the lead time is possibly the use of rainfall-runoff models with input given by rainfall and streamflow observations and by forecasts of future precipitation derived from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Recent studies showed that probabilistic or ensemble flood forecasts produced using ensemble precipitation forecasts as input data outperform deterministic flood forecasts in several cases in Europe and the United States, and ensemble flood forecasting systems are increasingly becoming operational in these regions. In Brazil, on the other hand, operational flood warning systems are rare, and often based on simpli?ed river routing or linear transfer function models. However, a large number of global and regional meteorological models is operationally run covering most of the country, and forecasts of those models are available for recent years. We used this available data to conduct experiments of short term ensemble flood forecasting in the Paraopeba River basin (12 thousand km2), located in Southeastern Brazil. Streamflow forecasts were produced using the MGB-IPH hydrological model, using a simple empirical state updating method and using an ensemble of precipitation forecasts generated by several models, with different initial conditions and parameterizations, from several weather forecasting centers. A single deterministic streamflow forecast, based on a quantitative precipitation forecast derived from the optimal combination of several outputs of NWP models was used as a reference to assess the performance of the ensemble streamflow forecasts. Flood forecasts experiments were performed for three rainy seasons (austral summer) between 2008-2011. The results for predictions of dichotomous events, which mean exceeding or not flood warning thresholds, showed that the upper quantiles of the ensemble (e.g. 80th and 90th quantiles) over performed the deterministic forecast and even the ensemble mean. In most cases we observed an increase in the proportion of correctly forecasted events while keeping false alarm rates at low levels. This benefit was generally higher for higher flow thresholds and for longer lead times, which are the most important situations for flood impact mitigation. In parallel with the ensemble forecasts studies, a forecasting system platform fully coupled to a GIS tool (Mapwindow GIS) is being developed, which facilitates the system operation and interpretation of results. Currently, this system is being tested, however using only deterministic precipitation forecasts, in two large scale river basins in Brazil: the São Francisco River upstream of Pirapora (60 thousand km2) and the Tocantins River (300 thousand km2). Results obtained in the Paraopeba River are now motivating the incorporation of NWP ensemble outputs in these systems to make probabilistic predictions.

  5. Guest column: Improve flood forecasting Des Moines Register, June 22, 2008

    E-print Network

    Debinski, Diane M.

    Guest column: Improve flood forecasting Des Moines Register, June 22, 2008 by Kristie Franz The recent flooding in Iowa may have some people wondering: How are flood forecasts made, are they any good, and what is needed to improve them? There are a number of ways to predict floods. In the short term, flash-flood

  6. Flood monitoring for ungauged rivers: the power of combining space-based monitoring and global forecasting models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Revilla-Romero, Beatriz; Netgeka, Victor; Raynaud, Damien; Thielen, Jutta

    2013-04-01

    Flood warning systems typically rely on forecasts from national meteorological services and in-situ observations from hydrological gauging stations. This capacity is not equally developed in flood-prone developing countries. Low-cost satellite monitoring systems and global flood forecasting systems can be an alternative source of information for national flood authorities. The Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) has been develop jointly with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) and the Joint Research Centre, and it is running quasi operational now since June 2011. The system couples state-of-the art weather forecasts with a hydrological model driven at a continental scale. The system provides downstream countries with information on upstream river conditions as well as continental and global overviews. In its test phase, this global forecast system provides probabilities for large transnational river flooding at the global scale up to 30 days in advance. It has shown its real-life potential for the first time during the flood in Southeast Asia in 2011, and more recently during the floods in Australia in March 2012, India (Assam, September-October 2012) and Chad Floods (August-October 2012).The Joint Research Centre is working on further research and development, rigorous testing and adaptations of the system to create an operational tool for decision makers, including national and regional water authorities, water resource managers, hydropower companies, civil protection and first line responders, and international humanitarian aid organizations. Currently efforts are being made to link GloFAS to the Global Flood Detection System (GFDS). GFDS is a Space-based river gauging and flood monitoring system using passive microwave remote sensing which was developed by a collaboration between the JRC and Dartmouth Flood Observatory. GFDS provides flood alerts based on daily water surface change measurements from space. Alerts are shown on a world map, with detailed reports for individual gauging sites. A comparison of discharge estimates from the Global Flood Detection System (GFDS) and the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) with observations for representative climatic zones is presented. Both systems have demonstrated strong potential in forecasting and detecting recent catastrophic floods. The usefulness of their combined information on global scale for decision makers at different levels is discussed. Combining space-based monitoring and global forecasting models is an innovative approach and has significant benefits for international river commissions as well as international aid organisations. This is in line with the objectives of the Hyogo and the Post-2015 Framework that aim at the development of systems which involve trans-boundary collaboration, space-based earth observation, flood forecasting and early warning.

  7. Flood forecasting for River Mekong with data-based models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shahzad, Khurram M.; Plate, Erich J.

    2014-09-01

    In many regions of the world, the task of flood forecasting is made difficult because only a limited database is available for generating a suitable forecast model. This paper demonstrates that in such cases parsimonious data-based hydrological models for flood forecasting can be developed if the special conditions of climate and topography are used to advantage. As an example, the middle reach of River Mekong in South East Asia is considered, where a database of discharges from seven gaging stations on the river and 31 rainfall stations on the subcatchments between gaging stations is available for model calibration. Special conditions existing for River Mekong are identified and used in developing first a network connecting all discharge gages and then models for forecasting discharge increments between gaging stations. Our final forecast model (Model 3) is a linear combination of two structurally different basic models: a model (Model 1) using linear regressions for forecasting discharge increments, and a model (Model 2) using rainfall-runoff models. Although the model based on linear regressions works reasonably well for short times, better results are obtained with rainfall-runoff modeling. However, forecast accuracy of Model 2 is limited by the quality of rainfall forecasts. For best results, both models are combined by taking weighted averages to form Model 3. Model quality is assessed by means of both persistence index PI and standard deviation of forecast error.

  8. Probability Forecasts: a Survey of National Weather Service Forecasters

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Allan H. Murphy; Robert L. Winkler

    1974-01-01

    Some results of a nationwide survey of National Weather Service forecasters with regard to probability forecasting in general and precipitation probability forecasting in particular are summarized. Specifically, the questionnaire which was used in the survey, the participants in the survey (i.e., the forecasters). and the nature of the results are briefly described, and some recommendations based upon these results are

  9. Understanding uncertainty in distributed flash flood forecasting for semiarid regions

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Soni Yatheendradas; Thorsten Wagener; Hoshin Gupta; Carl Unkrich; David Goodrich; Mike Schaffner; Anne Stewart

    2008-01-01

    Semiarid flash floods pose a significant danger for life and property in many dry regions around the world. One effective way to mitigate flood risk lies in implementing a real-time forecast and warning system based on a rainfall-runoff model. This study used a semiarid, physics-based, and spatially distributed watershed model driven by high-resolution radar rainfall input to evaluate such a

  10. An Operational Flood Forecast System for the Indus Valley

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shrestha, K.; Webster, P. J.

    2012-12-01

    The Indus River is central to agriculture, hydroelectric power, and the potable water supply in Pakistan. The ever-present risk of drought - leading to poor soil conditions, conservative dam practices, and higher flood risk - amplifies the consequences of abnormally large precipitation events during the monsoon season. Preparation for the 2010 and 2011 floods could have been improved by coupling quantitative precipitation forecasts to a distributed hydrological model. The nature of slow-rise discharge on the Indus and overtopping of riverbanks in this basin indicate that medium-range (1-10 day) probabilistic weather forecasts can be used to assess flood risk at critical points in the basin. We describe a process for transforming these probabilities into an alert system for supporting flood mitigation and response decisions on a daily basis. We present a fully automated two-dimensional flood forecast methodology based on meteorological variables from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Variable Ensemble Prediction System (VarEPS). Energy and water fluxes are calculated in 25km grid cells using macroscale hydrologic parameterizations from the UW Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. A linear routing model transports grid cell surface runoff and baseflow within each grid cell to the outlet and into the stream network. The overflow points are estimated using flow directions, flow velocities, and maximum discharge thresholds from each grid cell. Flood waves are then deconvolved from the in-channel discharge time series and propagated into adjacent cells until a storage criterion based on average grid cell elevation is met. Floodwaters are drained back into channels as a continuous process, thus simulating spatial extent, depth, and persistence on the plains as the ensemble forecast evolves with time.

  11. Current status on flood forecasting and early warning in Africa

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Vera Thiemig; A. P. D. de Roo; Hussein Gadain

    2011-01-01

    An overview of the current state of flood forecasting and early warning in Africa is provided in order to identify future user needs and research. Information was collected by reviewing previously published research in the scientific literature and from institutional websites. This information was supplemented by data collected from a questionnaire sent to hydrological and meteorological institutions that were identified

  12. Flash Flood Forecasting: An Ingredients-Based Methodology

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Charles A. Doswell; Harold E. Brooks; Robert A. Maddox

    1996-01-01

    An approach to forecasting the potential for flash flood - producing storms is developed, using the notion of basic ingredients. Heavy precipitation is the result of sustained high rainfall rates. In turn, high rainfall rates involve the rapid ascent of air containing substantial water vapor and also depend on the precipitation efficiency. The duration of an event is associated with

  13. PROBABILISTIC FLOOD FORECASTING USING A DISTRIBUTED RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODEL

    E-print Network

    Fernandez, Thomas

    PROBABILISTIC FLOOD FORECASTING USING A DISTRIBUTED RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODEL PAUL JAMES SMITH 2005 #12 nowcasting of rainfall patterns provided by Professor Eiichi Nakakita. Thanks is extended to Mr. Katsuyoshi., for their assistance regarding rainfall- runoff modeling, and to Yoshiyuki Zushi of the Foundation of River and Basin

  14. A pan-African medium-range ensemble flood forecast system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thiemig, Vera; Bisselink, Bernard; Pappenberger, Florian; Thielen, Jutta

    2015-04-01

    The African Flood Forecasting System (AFFS) is a probabilistic flood forecast system for medium- to large-scale African river basins, with lead times of up to 15 days. The key components are the hydrological model LISFLOOD, the African GIS database, the meteorological ensemble predictions of the ECMWF and critical hydrological thresholds. In this study the predictive capability is investigated, to estimate AFFS' potential as an operational flood forecasting system for the whole of Africa. This is done in a hindcast mode, by reproducing pan-African hydrological predictions for the whole year of 2003 where important flood events were observed. Results were analysed in two ways, each with its individual objective. The first part of the analysis is of paramount importance for the assessment of AFFS as a flood forecasting system, as it focuses on the detection and prediction of flood events. Here, results were verified with reports of various flood archives such as Dartmouth Flood Observatory, the Emergency Event Database, the NASA Earth Observatory and Reliefweb. The number of hits, false alerts and missed alerts as well as the Probability of Detection, False Alarm Rate and Critical Success Index were determined for various conditions (different regions, flood durations, average amount of annual precipitations, size of affected areas and mean annual discharge). The second part of the analysis complements the first by giving a basic insight into the prediction skill of the general streamflow. For this, hydrological predictions were compared against observations at 36 key locations across Africa and the Continuous Rank Probability Skill Score (CRPSS), the limit of predictability and reliability were calculated. Results showed that AFFS detected around 70 % of the reported flood events correctly. In particular, the system showed good performance in predicting riverine flood events of long duration (> 1 week) and large affected areas (> 10 000 km2) well in advance, whereas AFFS showed limitations for small-scale and short duration flood events. Also the forecasts showed on average a good reliability, and the CRPSS helped identifying regions to focus on for future improvements. The case study for the flood event in March 2003 in the Sabi Basin (Zimbabwe and Mozambique) illustrated the good performance of AFFS in forecasting timing and severity of the floods, gave an example of the clear and concise output products, and showed that the system is capable of producing flood warnings even in ungauged river basins. Hence, from a technical perspective, AFFS shows a good prospective as an operational system, as it has demonstrated its significant potential to contribute to the reduction of flood-related losses in Africa by providing national and international aid organizations timely with medium-range flood forecast information. However, issues related to the practical implication will still need to be investigated.

  15. A first large-scale flood inundation forecasting model

    SciTech Connect

    Schumann, Guy J-P; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Voisin, Nathalie; Andreadis, Konstantinos M.; Pappenberger, Florian; Phanthuwongpakdee, Kay; Hall, Amanda C.; Bates, Paul D.

    2013-11-04

    At present continental to global scale flood forecasting focusses on predicting at a point discharge, with little attention to the detail and accuracy of local scale inundation predictions. Yet, inundation is actually the variable of interest and all flood impacts are inherently local in nature. This paper proposes a first large scale flood inundation ensemble forecasting model that uses best available data and modeling approaches in data scarce areas and at continental scales. The model was built for the Lower Zambezi River in southeast Africa to demonstrate current flood inundation forecasting capabilities in large data-scarce regions. The inundation model domain has a surface area of approximately 170k km2. ECMWF meteorological data were used to force the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) macro-scale hydrological model which simulated and routed daily flows to the input boundary locations of the 2-D hydrodynamic model. Efficient hydrodynamic modeling over large areas still requires model grid resolutions that are typically larger than the width of many river channels that play a key a role in flood wave propagation. We therefore employed a novel sub-grid channel scheme to describe the river network in detail whilst at the same time representing the floodplain at an appropriate and efficient scale. The modeling system was first calibrated using water levels on the main channel from the ICESat (Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite) laser altimeter and then applied to predict the February 2007 Mozambique floods. Model evaluation showed that simulated flood edge cells were within a distance of about 1 km (one model resolution) compared to an observed flood edge of the event. Our study highlights that physically plausible parameter values and satisfactory performance can be achieved at spatial scales ranging from tens to several hundreds of thousands of km2 and at model grid resolutions up to several km2. However, initial model test runs in forecast mode revealed that it is crucial to account for basin-wide hydrological response time when assessing lead time performances notwithstanding structural limitations in the hydrological model and possibly large inaccuracies in precipitation data.

  16. Flood forecasting model based on geographical information system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dong, A.; Zhi-Jia, L.; Yong-Tuo, W.; Cheng, Y.; Yi-Heng, D.

    2015-05-01

    In this paper, the Antecedent Precipitation Index Model (API) combined with Nash's Instantaneous Unit Curve Method is adopted for flood forecasting. The parameters n and k of Nash's Method is obtained by setting up the mathematic relation between these two parameters and topographic characteristics. Based on the DEM information, ArcGIS software is used to get the topographic characteristics and the topographic parameters. The Tunxi basin in the humid region was taken as an example for analysis. Through comparison with the simulation results of the Xinanjiang model, the detailed analysis of our simulation results is carried out giving a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency 0.80 for the combined model and 0.94 for the Xinanjiang model. This indicates that the combined model as well as the Xinanjiang Model has a good performance in the simulation process. The combined model has great potential as a new efficient approach for flood forecasting in similar basins.

  17. A Modeling Approach for Flash Flood Forecasting for Small Watersheds in Iowa

    Microsoft Academic Search

    W. S. Lincoln; K. J. Franz

    2008-01-01

    Current flood predictions are limited by often out-dated statistical guidance and a rigid modeling system that seldom accounts for basin-specific hydrologic response times. The National Weather Service (NWS) SACramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model (SACSMA), which is used to generate short-range (1-7 days) streamflow forecasts, is most commonly run at a 6-hour timestep. The 6-hour timestep can be inadequate for capturing

  18. FEWS Vecht, a crossing boundaries flood forecasting system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Heeringen, Klaas-Jan; Filius, Pieter; Tromp, Gerben; Renner, Tobias

    2013-04-01

    The river Vecht is a cross boundary river, starting in Germany and flowing to the Netherlands. The river is completely dependant on rainfall in the catchment. Being one of the smaller big rivers in the Netherlands, there was still no operational forecasting system avaible because of the hugh number of involved organisations (2 in Germany, 5 in the Netherlands) and many other stake holders. In 2011 a first operational forecasting system has been build by using the Delft-FEWS software. It collects the real time fluvial and meteorological observations from all the organisations, in that sense being a portal where all the collected information is available and can be consistantly interpreted as a whole. In 2012 an HBV rainfall runoff model and a Sobek 1D hydraulic model has been build. These models have been integrated into the FEWS system and are operationally running since the 2012 autumn. The system forecasts 5 days ahead using a 5 days ECMWF rainfall ensemble forecast. It enables making scenarios, especially useful for the operation of storage reservoirs. During the 2012 Christmas days a (relatively small) T=2 flood occurred (Q=175-200 m3/s) and proved the system to run succesfully. Dissemination of the forecasts is performed by using the FEWS system in all organisations, connected to the central system through internet. There is also a (password protected) website available that provides the current forecast to all stake holders in the catchment. The challenge of the project was not to make the models and to build the fews, but to connect all data and all operators together into one system, even cross boundary. Also in that sense the FEWS Vecht system has proved to be very succesful.

  19. Application of hydrological models for flood forecasting and flood control in India and Bangladesh

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Refsgaard, J. C.; Havnø, K.; Ammentorp, H. C.; Verwey, A.

    A general mathematical modelling system for real-time flood forecasting and flood control planning is described. The system comprises a lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model, a hydrodynamic model for river routing, reservoir and flood plain simulation, an updating procedure for real-time operation and a comprehensive data management system. The system is presently applied for real-time forecasting of the two 20 000 km 2 (Yamuna and Damodar) catchments in India as well as for flood control modelling at the same two catchments in India. In another project the system is being established for the entire Bangladesh with a coarse discretization and for the South East Region of Bangladesh with a fine model discretization. The objectives of the modelling application in Bangladesh are to enable predictions of the effects of alternative river regulation structures in terms of changes in water levels, inundations, siltration and salinity. The modelling system has been transferred to the Central Water Commission of India and the Master Plan Organization of Bangladesh in connection with comprehensive training programmes. The models are presently being operated by Indian and Bangladeshi engineers in the two countries.

  20. Forecasting of Storm Surge Floods Using ADCIRC and Optimized DEMs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Valenti, Elizabeth; Fitzpatrick, Patrick

    2005-01-01

    Increasing the accuracy of storm surge flood forecasts is essential for improving preparedness for hurricanes and other severe storms and, in particular, for optimizing evacuation scenarios. An interactive database, developed by WorldWinds, Inc., contains atlases of storm surge flood levels for the Louisiana/Mississippi gulf coast region. These atlases were developed to improve forecasting of flooding along the coastline and estuaries and in adjacent inland areas. Storm surge heights depend on a complex interaction of several factors, including: storm size, central minimum pressure, forward speed of motion, bottom topography near the point of landfall, astronomical tides, and most importantly, maximum wind speed. The information in the atlases was generated in over 100 computational simulations, partly by use of a parallel-processing version of the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model. ADCIRC is a nonlinear computational model of hydrodynamics, developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the US Navy, as a family of two- and three-dimensional finite element based codes. It affords a capability for simulating tidal circulation and storm surge propagation over very large computational domains, while simultaneously providing high-resolution output in areas of complex shoreline and bathymetry. The ADCIRC finite-element grid for this project covered the Gulf of Mexico and contiguous basins, extending into the deep Atlantic Ocean with progressively higher resolution approaching the study area. The advantage of using ADCIRC over other storm surge models, such as SLOSH, is that input conditions can include all or part of wind stress, tides, wave stress, and river discharge, which serve to make the model output more accurate.

  1. Karst flash-flood forecasting in the city of Nmes1 (southern France)2

    E-print Network

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    1 Karst flash-flood forecasting in the city of Nîmes1 (southern France)2 Fleury, P., Maréchal, J ABSTRACT5 In southern France, karst flash-floods may be the result of two, potentially cumulative,6 phenomena:7 - Floods from highly localized events that mostly occur during autumn and are locally8 known

  2. Flood quantiles in a changing climate: Seasonal forecasts and causal relations

    E-print Network

    Arumugam, Sankar

    potential is discussed. INDEX TERMS: 1821 Hydrology: Floods; 1833 Hydrology: Hydroclimatology; 4522Flood quantiles in a changing climate: Seasonal forecasts and causal relations A maximum floods at a given location may change over time in response to interannual and longer climate

  3. National Flood Risk Management Planning Center of Expertise

    E-print Network

    US Army Corps of Engineers

    and Development Center, National Flood Proofing Committee, Great Lakes and Ohio River National Flood Risk Management Planning Center of Expertise The Flood Risk Management Planning Center of Expertise (FRM-PCX) was established

  4. Urban flood early warning systems: approaches to hydrometeorological forecasting and communicating risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cranston, Michael; Speight, Linda; Maxey, Richard; Tavendale, Amy; Buchanan, Peter

    2015-04-01

    One of the main challenges for the flood forecasting community remains the provision of reliable early warnings of surface (or pluvial) flooding. The Scottish Flood Forecasting Service has been developing approaches for forecasting the risk of surface water flooding including capitalising on the latest developments in quantitative precipitation forecasting from the Met Office. A probabilistic Heavy Rainfall Alert decision support tool helps operational forecasters assess the likelihood of surface water flooding against regional rainfall depth-duration estimates from MOGREPS-UK linked to historical short-duration flooding in Scotland. The surface water flood risk is communicated through the daily Flood Guidance Statement to emergency responders. A more recent development is an innovative risk-based hydrometeorological approach that links 24-hour ensemble rainfall forecasts through a hydrological model (Grid-to-Grid) to a library of impact assessments (Speight et al., 2015). The early warning tool - FEWS Glasgow - presents the risk of flooding to people, property and transport across a 1km grid over the city of Glasgow with a lead time of 24 hours. Communication of the risk was presented in a bespoke surface water flood forecast product designed based on emergency responder requirements and trialled during the 2014 Commonwealth Games in Glasgow. The development of new approaches to surface water flood forecasting are leading to improved methods of communicating the risk and better performance in early warning with a reduction in false alarm rates with summer flood guidance in 2014 (67%) compared to 2013 (81%) - although verification of instances of surface water flooding remains difficult. However the introduction of more demanding hydrometeorological capabilities with associated greater levels of uncertainty does lead to an increased demand on operational flood forecasting skills and resources. Speight, L., Cole, S.J., Moore, R.J., Pierce, C., Wright, B., Golding, B., Cranston, M., Tavendale, A., Ghimire, S., and Dhondia, J. (2015) Developing surface water flood forecasting capabilities in Scotland: an operational pilot for the 2014 Commonwealth Games in Glasgow. Journal of Flood Risk Management, In Press.

  5. Fews-Risk: A step towards risk-based flood forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bachmann, Daniel; Eilander, Dirk; de Leeuw, Annemargreet; Diermanse, Ferdinand; Weerts, Albrecht; de Bruijn, Karin; Beckers, Joost; Boelee, Leonore; Brown, Emma; Hazlewood, Caroline

    2015-04-01

    Operational flood prediction and the assessment of flood risk are important components of flood management. Currently, the model-based prediction of discharge and/or water level in a river is common practice for operational flood forecasting. Based on the prediction of these values decisions about specific emergency measures are made within operational flood management. However, the information provided for decision support is restricted to pure hydrological or hydraulic aspects of a flood. Information about weak sections within the flood defences, flood prone areas and assets at risk in the protected areas are rarely used in a model-based flood forecasting system. This information is often available for strategic planning, but is not in an appropriate format for operational purposes. The idea of FEWS-Risk is the extension of existing flood forecasting systems with elements of strategic flood risk analysis, such as probabilistic failure analysis, two dimensional flood spreading simulation and the analysis of flood impacts and consequences. Thus, additional information is provided to the decision makers, such as: • Location, timing and probability of failure of defined sections of the flood defence line; • Flood spreading, extent and hydraulic values in the hinterland caused by an overflow or a breach flow • Impacts and consequences in case of flooding in the protected areas, such as injuries or casualties and/or damages to critical infrastructure or economy. In contrast with purely hydraulic-based operational information, these additional data focus upon decision support for answering crucial questions within an operational flood forecasting framework, such as: • Where should I reinforce my flood defence system? • What type of action can I take to mend a weak spot in my flood defences? • What are the consequences of a breach? • Which areas should I evacuate first? This presentation outlines the additional required workflows towards risk-based flood forecasting systems. In a cooperation between HR Wallingford and Deltares, the extended workflows are being integrated into the Delft-FEWS software system. Delft-FEWS provides modules for managing the data handling and forecasting process. Results of a pilot study that demonstrates the new tools are presented. The value of the newly generated information for decision support during a flood event is discussed.

  6. Model initialisation, data assimilation and probabilistic flood forecasting for distributed hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cole, S. J.; Robson, A. J.; Bell, V. A.; Moore, R. J.

    2009-04-01

    The hydrological forecasting component of the Natural Environment Research Council's FREE (Flood Risk from Extreme Events) project "Exploitation of new data sources, data assimilation and ensemble techniques for storm and flood forecasting" addresses the initialisation, data assimilation and uncertainty of hydrological flood models utilising advances in rainfall estimation and forecasting. Progress will be reported on the development and assessment of simple model-initialisation and state-correction methods for a distributed grid-based hydrological model, the G2G Model. The potential of the G2G Model for area-wide flood forecasting is demonstrated through a nationwide application across England and Wales. Probabilistic flood forecasting in spatial form is illustrated through the use of high-resolution NWP rainfalls, and pseudo-ensemble forms of these, as input to the G2G Model. The G2G Model is configured over a large area of South West England and the Boscastle storm of 16 August 2004 is used as a convective case study. Visualisation of probabilistic flood forecasts is achieved through risk maps of flood threshold exceedence that indicate the space-time evolution of flood risk during the event.

  7. A Distributed Hydrologic Model, HL-RDHM, for Flash Flood Forecasting in Hawaiian Watersheds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fares, A.; Awal, R.; Michaud, J.; Chu, P.; Fares, S.; Kevin, K.; Rosener, M.

    2012-12-01

    Hawai'i's watersheds are flash flood prone due to their small contributing areas, and frequent intense spatially variable precipitation. Accurate simulation of the hydrology of these watersheds should incorporate spatial variability of at least the major input data, e.g., precipitation. The goal of this study is to evaluate the performance of the U.S. National Weather Service Hydrology Laboratory Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM) in flash flood forecasting at Hanalei watershed, Kauai, Hawai'i. Some of the major limitations of using HL-RDHM in Hawaii are: i) Hawaii lies outside the Hydrologic Rainfall Analysis Project (HRAP) coordinate system of the continental US (CONUS), unavailability of a priori SAC-SMA parameter grids, and absence of hourly multi-sensor NEXRAD based precipitation grids. The specific objectives of this study were to i) run HL-RDHM outside CONUS domain, and ii) evaluate the performance of HL-RDHM for flash flood forecasting in the flood prone Hanalei watershed, Kauai, Hawai'i. We i) modified HRAP coordinate system; ii) generated input data of precipitation grids at different resolutions using data from 20 precipitation gauges five of which were within Hanalei watershed; iii) and generated SAC-SMA and routing parameter grids for the modified HRAP coordinate system. The one HRAP resolution grid (4 km x 4 km) was not accurate; thus, the basin averaged annual hourly precipitation of 1 HRAP grid is comparatively lower than that of ½ and ¼ HRAP grids. The performance of HL-RDHM using basin averaged a priori grids and distributed a priori grids was reasonable even using non-optimized a priori parameter values for 2008 data. HL-RDHM reasonably matched the observed streamflow magnitudes of peaks and time to peak during the calibration and validation periods. Overall, HL-RDHM performance is "good" to "very good" if we use input data of finer resolution grids (½ HRAP or ¼ HRAP) and precipitation grids interpolated from sufficient data of rain gauges. Results of this study show the potential of using HL-RDHM for flood forecasting in Hawaii; however, there are still some necessary modifications of HL-RDHM that should be implemented to make it more user friendly. There is also a need to produce HRAP quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) grids for Hawaii. The size and coordinate system of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) grids for Hawaii are different from those for the CONUS; hence, further work should focus on generating QPE grids and incorporating QPF grids in HL-RDHM model.

  8. Implementing the national AIGA flash flood warning system in France

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Organde, Didier; Javelle, Pierre; Demargne, Julie; Arnaud, Patrick; Caseri, Angelica; Fine, Jean-Alain; de Saint Aubin, Céline

    2015-04-01

    The French national hydro-meteorological and flood forecasting centre (SCHAPI) aims to implement a national flash flood warning system to improve flood alerts for small-to-medium (up to 1000 km2) ungauged basins. This system is based on the AIGA method, co-developed by IRSTEA these last 10 years. The method, initially set up for the Mediterranean area, is based on a simple event-based hourly hydrologic distributed model run every 15 minutes (Javelle et al. 2014). The hydrologic model ingests operational radar-gauge rainfall grids from Météo-France at a 1-km² resolution to produce discharges for successive outlets along the river network. Discharges are then compared to regionalized flood quantiles of given return periods and warnings (expressed as the range of the return period estimated in real-time) are provided on a river network map. The main interest of the method is to provide forecasters and emergency services with a synthetic view in real time of the ongoing flood situation, information that is especially critical in ungauged flood prone areas. In its enhanced national version, the hourly event-based distributed model is coupled to a continuous daily rainfall-runoff model which provides baseflow and a soil moisture index (for each 1-km² pixel) at the beginning of the hourly simulation. The rainfall-runoff models were calibrated on a selection of 700 French hydrometric stations with Météo-France radar-gauge reanalysis dataset for the 2002-2006 period. To estimate model parameters for ungauged basins, the 2 hydrologic models were regionalised by testing both regressions (using different catchment attributes, such as catchment area, soil type, and climate characteristic) and spatial proximity techniques (transposing parameters from neighbouring donor catchments), as well as different homogeneous hydrological areas. The most valuable regionalisation method was determined for each model through jack-knife cross-validation. The system performance was then evaluated with contingency criteria (e.g., Critical Success Index, Probability Of Detection, Success Ratio) using operational rainfall radar-gauge products from Météo-France for the 2009-2012 period. The regionalised parameters of the distributed model were finally adjusted for each homogeneous hydrological area to optimize the Heidke skill score (HSS) calculated with three levels of warnings (2-, 10- and 50-year flood quantiles). This work is currently being implemented by the SCHAPI to set up an automated national flash flood warning system by 2016. Planned improvements include developing a unique continuous model to be run at a sub-hourly timestep, discharge assimilation, as well as integrating precipitation forecasts while accounting for the main sources of forecast uncertainty. Javelle, P., Demargne, J., Defrance, D., and Arnaud, P. 2014. Evaluating flash flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system. Hydrological Sciences Journal, DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2014.923970

  9. Spatially distributed flood forecasting in flash flood prone areas: Application to road network supervision in Southern France

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naulin, J.-P.; Payrastre, O.; Gaume, E.

    2013-04-01

    SummaryAccurate flood forecasts are critical to an efficient flood event management strategy. Until now, hydro-meteorological forecasts have mainly been used to establish early-warnings in France (meteorological and flood vigilance maps) or over the world (flash-flood guidances). These forecasts are typically limited either to the main streams covered by the flood forecasting services or to watersheds with specific assets like check dams, which in most cases are well gauged river sections, thus leaving aside large parts of the territory. This paper presents a distributed hydro-meteorological forecasting approach, which makes use of the high spatial and temporal resolution rainfall estimates that are now available, to provide information at ungauged sites. The proposed system intended to detect road inundation risks had initially been developed and tested in areas of limited size. This paper presents the extension of such a system to an entire region (i.e. the Gard region in Southern France), including over 2000 crossing points between rivers and roads and its validation with respect to a large data set of actual reported road inundations observed during recent flash flood events. These initial validation results appear to be most promising. The eventual proposed tool would provide the necessary information for flood event management services to identify the areas at risk and adopt appropriate safety and rescue measures: i.e. pre-positioning of rescue equipment, interruption of the traffic on the exposed roads and determination of safe access or evacuation routes. Moreover, beyond the specific application to the supervision of a road network, the research undertaken herein also provides results for the performance of hydro-meteorological forecasts on ungauged headwaters.

  10. Application of Medium and Seasonal Flood Forecasts for Agriculture Damage Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fakhruddin, Shamsul; Ballio, Francesco; Menoni, Scira

    2015-04-01

    Early warning is a key element for disaster risk reduction. In recent decades, major advancements have been made in medium range and seasonal flood forecasting. This progress provides a great opportunity to reduce agriculture damage and improve advisories for early action and planning for flood hazards. This approach can facilitate proactive rather than reactive management of the adverse consequences of floods. In the agricultural sector, for instance, farmers can take a diversity of options such as changing cropping patterns, applying fertilizer, irrigating and changing planting timing. An experimental medium range (1-10 day) and seasonal (20-25 days) flood forecasting model has been developed for Thailand and Bangladesh. It provides 51 sets of discharge ensemble forecasts of 1-10 days with significant persistence and high certainty and qualitative outlooks for 20-25 days. This type of forecast could assist farmers and other stakeholders for differential preparedness activities. These ensembles probabilistic flood forecasts have been customized based on user-needs for community-level application focused on agriculture system. The vulnerabilities of agriculture system were calculated based on exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Indicators for risk and vulnerability assessment were conducted through community consultations. The forecast lead time requirement, user-needs, impacts and management options for crops were identified through focus group discussions, informal interviews and community surveys. This paper illustrates potential applications of such ensembles for probabilistic medium range and seasonal flood forecasts in a way that is not commonly practiced globally today.

  11. Flood forecasting with the A&M watershed model: a hydrometeorological study

    E-print Network

    Robinson, Cedric Glynn

    1990-01-01

    Integrator and Processor (VIP) levels and the shape of the storm on the precipitation grid. VIP levels represent precipitation intensity ranges. The VIP levels and the default rainfall intensity values in the ARM Watershed Model are as follows: VIP LEVEL... of Precipitation Single Parameter Measurement Technique Dual Parameter Measurement Technique III FLOOD FORECASTING DATA PROCESSING 4 5 7 15 24 IV FLOOD FORECASTING WITH THE A&M WATERSHED MODEL 28 Preparation of the Watershed, Radar and Precipitation...

  12. COMPOSITE MEANS AND ANOMALIES OF METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS FOR SUMMERTIME FLASH FLOODING IN THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN REGION

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Alan M. Cope; Lee Robertson

    The purpose of this study was to identify weather parameters associated with summertime flash flooding in the eastern United States, and more specifically, to investigate how these parameters may be similar or different across different parts of the Eastern Region of the National Weather Service (NWS-ER). Flash flooding in the NWS-ER is a very serious forecast and warning challenge. Over

  13. Understanding uncertainty in distributed flash flood forecasting for semiarid regions 1909

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Semi-arid flash floods pose a significant danger for life and property in the US. One effective way to mitigate flood risk is by implementing a rainfall-runoff model in a real-time forecast and warning system. This study used a physically based, distributed semi-arid rainfall-runoff model driven by ...

  14. Study on snowmelt flood forecasting based on 3S technologies and DSS

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Shifeng Fang; Huan Pei; Zhihui Liu; Wei Dai; Yongqiang Liu; Qiudong Zhao; Lin Feng

    2008-01-01

    Flood disaster is one of the most frequently and the biggest natural disasters in the world, and snowmelt floods which break out in spring often bring enormous social and economic loss, especially in arid and semi-arid areas, such as in Northern Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang, China. Any effective prevention or mitigation of disasters is built on the basis of forecasting,

  15. Operational flash flood forecasting platform based on grid technology

    Microsoft Academic Search

    V. Thierion; P.-A. Ayral; V. Angelini; S. Sauvagnargues-Lesage; S. Nativi; O. Payrastre

    2009-01-01

    Flash flood events of south of France such as the 8th and 9th September 2002 in the Grand Delta territory caused important economic and human damages. Further to this catastrophic hydrological situation, a reform of flood warning services have been initiated (set in 2006). Thus, this political reform has transformed the 52 existing flood warning services (SAC) in 22 flood

  16. Using subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) extreme rainfall forecasts for extended-range flood prediction in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    White, C. J.; Franks, S. W.; McEvoy, D.

    2015-06-01

    Meteorological and hydrological centres around the world are looking at ways to improve their capacity to be able to produce and deliver skilful and reliable forecasts of high-impact extreme rainfall and flooding events on a range of prediction timescales (e.g. sub-daily, daily, multi-week, seasonal). Making improvements to extended-range rainfall and flood forecast models, assessing forecast skill and uncertainty, and exploring how to apply flood forecasts and communicate their benefits to decision-makers are significant challenges facing the forecasting and water resources management communities. This paper presents some of the latest science and initiatives from Australia on the development, application and communication of extreme rainfall and flood forecasts on the extended-range "subseasonal-to-seasonal" (S2S) forecasting timescale, with a focus on risk-based decision-making, increasing flood risk awareness and preparedness, capturing uncertainty, understanding human responses to flood forecasts and warnings, and the growing adoption of "climate services". The paper also demonstrates how forecasts of flood events across a range of prediction timescales could be beneficial to a range of sectors and society, most notably for disaster risk reduction (DRR) activities, emergency management and response, and strengthening community resilience. Extended-range S2S extreme flood forecasts, if presented as easily accessible, timely and relevant information are a valuable resource to help society better prepare for, and subsequently cope with, extreme flood events.

  17. General characteristics of causes of urban flood damage and flood forecasting/warning system in Seoul, Korea Young-Il Moon1, 2, Jong-Suk Kim1, 2 1 Department of Civil Engineering, University of Seoul, Seoul 130-743, South Korea 2 Urban Flood Research Inst

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moon, Young-Il; Kim, Jong-Suk

    2015-04-01

    Due to rapid urbanization and climate change, the frequency of concentrated heavy rainfall has increased, causing urban floods that result in casualties and property damage. As a consequence of natural disasters that occur annually, the cost of damage in Korea is estimated to be over two billion US dollars per year. As interest in natural disasters increase, demands for a safe national territory and efficient emergency plans are on the rise. In addition to this, as a part of the measures to cope with the increase of inland flood damage, it is necessary to build a systematic city flood prevention system that uses technology to quantify flood risk as well as flood forecast based on both rivers and inland water bodies. Despite the investment and efforts to prevent landside flood damage, research and studies of landside-river combined hydro-system is at its initial stage in Korea. Therefore, the purpose of this research introduces the causes of flood damage in Seoul and shows a flood forecasting and warning system in urban streams of Seoul. This urban flood forecasting and warning system conducts prediction on flash rain or short-term rainfall by using radar and satellite information and performs prompt and accurate prediction on the inland flooded area and also supports synthetic decision-making for prevention through real-time monitoring. Although we cannot prevent damage from typhoons or localized heavy rain, we can minimize that damage with accurate and timely forecast and a prevention system. To this end, we developed a flood forecasting and warning system, so in case of an emergency there is enough time for evacuation and disaster control. Keywords: urban flooding, flood risk, inland-river system, Korea Acknowledgments This research was supported by a grant (13AWMP-B066744-01) from Advanced Water Management Research Program (AWMP) funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

  18. Forecasting skills of the ensemble hydro-meteorological system for the Po river floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ricciardi, Giuseppe; Montani, Andrea; Paccagnella, Tiziana; Pecora, Silvano; Tonelli, Fabrizio

    2013-04-01

    The Po basin is the largest and most economically important river-basin in Italy. Extreme hydrological events, including floods, flash floods and droughts, are expected to become more severe in the next future due to climate change, and related ground effects are linked both with environmental and social resilience. A Warning Operational Center (WOC) for hydrological event management was created in Emilia Romagna region. In the last years, the WOC faced challenges in legislation, organization, technology and economics, achieving improvements in forecasting skill and information dissemination. Since 2005, an operational forecasting and modelling system for flood modelling and forecasting has been implemented, aimed at supporting and coordinating flood control and emergency management on the whole Po basin. This system, referred to as FEWSPo, has also taken care of environmental aspects of flood forecast. The FEWSPo system has reached a very high level of complexity, due to the combination of three different hydrological-hydraulic chains (HEC-HMS/RAS - MIKE11 NAM/HD, Topkapi/Sobek), with several meteorological inputs (forecasted - COSMOI2, COSMOI7, COSMO-LEPS among others - and observed). In this hydrological and meteorological ensemble the management of the relative predictive uncertainties, which have to be established and communicated to decision makers, is a debated scientific and social challenge. Real time activities face professional, modelling and technological aspects but are also strongly interrelated with organization and human aspects. The authors will report a case study using the operational flood forecast hydro-meteorological ensemble, provided by the MIKE11 chain fed by COSMO_LEPS EQPF. The basic aim of the proposed approach is to analyse limits and opportunities of the long term forecast (with a lead time ranging from 3 to 5 days), for the implementation of low cost actions, also looking for a well informed decision making and the improvement of flood preparedness and crisis management for basins greater than 1.000 km2.

  19. An operational real-time flood forecasting system in Southern Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ortiz, Enrique; Coccia, Gabriele; Todini, Ezio

    2015-04-01

    A real-time flood forecasting system has been operating since year 2012 as a non-structural measure for mitigating the flood risk in Campania Region (Southern Italy), within the Sele river basin (3.240 km2). The Sele Flood Forecasting System (SFFS) has been built within the FEWS (Flood Early Warning System) platform developed by Deltares and it assimilates the numerical weather predictions of the COSMO LAM family: the deterministic COSMO-LAMI I2, the deterministic COSMO-LAMI I7 and the ensemble numerical weather predictions COSMO-LEPS (16 members). Sele FFS is composed by a cascade of three main models. The first model is a fully continuous physically based distributed hydrological model, named TOPKAPI-eXtended (Idrologia&Ambiente s.r.l., Naples, Italy), simulating the dominant processes controlling the soil water dynamics, runoff generation and discharge with a spatial resolution of 250 m. The second module is a set of Neural-Networks (ANN) built for forecasting the river stages at a set of monitored cross-sections. The third component is a Model Conditional Processor (MCP), which provides the predictive uncertainty (i.e., the probability of occurrence of a future flood event) within the framework of a multi-temporal forecast, according to the most recent advancements on this topic (Coccia and Todini, HESS, 2011). The MCP provides information about the probability of exceedance of a maximum river stage within the forecast lead time, by means of a discrete time function representing the variation of cumulative probability of exceeding a river stage during the forecast lead time and the distribution of the time occurrence of the flood peak, starting from one or more model forecasts. This work shows the Sele FFS performance after two years of operation, evidencing the added-values that can provide to a flood early warning and emergency management system.

  20. The potential of remotely sensed soil moisture for operational flood forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wanders, N.; Karssenberg, D.; de Roo, A.; de Jong, S.; Bierkens, M. F.

    2013-12-01

    Nowadays, remotely sensed soil moisture is readily available from multiple space born sensors. The high temporal resolution and global coverage make these products very suitable for large-scale land-surface applications. The potential to use these products in operational flood forecasting has thus far not been extensively studied. In this study, we evaluate the added value of assimilated remotely sensed soil moisture for the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) and its potential to improve the timing and height of the flood peak and low flows. EFAS is used for operational flood forecasting in Europe and uses a distributed hydrological model for flood predictions for lead times up to 10 days. Satellite-derived soil moisture from ASCAT, AMSR-E and SMOS is assimilated into the EFAS system for the Upper Danube basin and results are compared to assimilation of only discharge observations. Discharge observations are available at the outlet and at six additional locations throughout the catchment. To assimilate soil moisture data into EFAS, an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is used. Information on the spatial (cross-) correlation of the errors in the satellite products, derived from a detailed model-satellite soil moisture comparison study, is included to ensure optimal performance of the EnKF. For the validation, additional discharge observations not used in the EnKF are used as an independent validation dataset. Our results show that the accuracy of flood forecasts is increased when more discharge observations are used in that the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of the ensemble mean is reduced by 65%. The additional inclusion of satellite data results in a further increase of the performance: forecasts of base flows are better and the uncertainty in the overall discharge is reduced, shown by a 10% reduction in the MAE. In addition, floods are predicted with a higher accuracy and the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) shows a performance increase of 10-15% on average, compared to assimilation of discharge only. The rank histograms show that the forecast is not biased. The timing errors in the flood predictions are decreased when soil moisture data is used and imminent floods can be forecasted with skill one day earlier. In conclusion, our study shows that assimilation of satellite soil moisture increases the performance of flood forecasting systems for large catchments, like the Upper Danube. The additional gain is highest when discharge observations from both upstream and downstream areas are used in combination with the soil moisture data. These results show the potential of future soil moisture missions with a higher spatial resolution like SMAP to improve near-real time flood forecasting in large catchments.

  1. The Design and Implementation of a Real-Time Flood Forecasting System in Durban, South Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sinclair, Scott; Pegram, Geoff

    2003-04-01

    In South Africa, five flood events during the period 1994-1996 resulted in the loss of 173 lives, more than 7000 people requiring evacuation and/or emergency shelter and damages to the value of R680 million (White paper on Disaster Management 1998). The South African Disaster management bill provides for "...preventing or reducing the risk of disasters, mitigating the severity of disasters ...". To this end a pilot study funded by the Water Research Commission aims at providing flood forecasts for the Mgeni and Mlazi catchments near the city of Durban in South Africa. The importance and usefulness of flood forecasting is particularly evident in an urban context where the density of population and infrastructure provide great potential for disaster. A reliable flood warning or forecasting system cannot prevent the occurrence of floods, but provides a key tool that can allow decision makers to be proactive rather than reactive in their response to a flooding event. Taking preventative measures before the fact can significantly reduce the social and economic impacts associated with a disaster. The flood forecasting system described here makes use of a "best estimate" spatial rainfield (obtained by combining radar and telemetered rain gauge rainfall estimates) as input to a linear catchment model. The catchment model parameters are dynamically updated in response to measured streamflows using Kalman filtering techniques, allowing improved forecasts of streamflow as the catchment conditions change. Precomputed flood lines and a graphical representation of the spatial rainfield are dynamically displayed on a GIS in the Durban disaster management control center enabling Disaster Managers to be proactive in times of impending floods.

  2. Evaluation of Mekong River commission operational flood forecasts, 2000-2012

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pagano, T. C.

    2014-07-01

    This study created a 13-year historical archive of operational flood forecasts issued by the Regional Flood Management and Mitigation Center (RFMMC) of the Mekong River Commission. The RFMMC issues 1- to 5-day daily deterministic river height forecasts for 22 locations throughout the wet season (June-October). When these forecasts reach near flood level, government agencies and the public are encouraged to take protective action against damages. When measured by standard skill scores, the forecasts perform exceptionally well (e.g., 1 day-ahead Nash-Sutcliffe > 0.99) although much of this apparent skill is due to the strong seasonal cycle and the narrow natural range of variability at certain locations. Five-day forecasts upstream of Phnom Penh typically have 0.8 m error standard deviation, whereas below Phnom Penh the error is typically 0.3 m. The coefficients of persistence for 1-day forecasts are typically 0.4-0.8 and 5-day forecasts are typically 0.1-0.7. RFMMC uses a series of benchmarks to define a metric of percentage satisfactory forecasts. As the benchmarks were derived based on the average error, certain locations and lead times consistently appear less satisfactory than others. Instead, different benchmarks were proposed and derived based on the 70th percentile of absolute error over the 13-year period. There are no obvious trends in the percentage of satisfactory forecasts from 2002 to 2012, regardless of the benchmark chosen. Finally, when evaluated from a categorical "crossing above/not-crossing above flood level" perspective, the forecasts have a moderate probability of detection (48% at 1 day ahead, 31% at 5 days ahead) and false alarm rate (13% at 1 day ahead, 74% at 5 days ahead).

  3. The Hurricane-Flood-Landslide Continuum: Forecasting Hurricane Effects at Landfall

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Negri, A.; Golden, J. H.; Updike, R.

    2004-01-01

    Hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones strike Central American, Caribbean, Southeast Asian and Pacific Island nations even more frequently than the U.S. The global losses of life and property from the floods, landslides and debris flows caused by cyclonic storms are staggering. One of the keys to reducing these losses, both in the U.S. and internationally, is to have better forecasts of what is about to happen from several hours to days before the event. Particularly in developing nations where science, technology and communication are limited, advance-warning systems can have great impact. In developing countries, warnings of even a few hours or days can mitigate or reduce catastrophic losses of life. With the foregoing needs in mind, we propose an initial project of three years total duration that will aim to develop and transfer a warning system for a prototype region in the Central Caribbean, specifically the islands of Puerto Rico and Hispanola. The Hurricane-Flood-Landslide Continuum will include satellite observations to track and nowcast dangerous levels of precipitation, atmospheric and hydrological models to predict near-future runoff, and streamflow changes in affected regions, and landslide models to warn when and where landslides and debris flows are imminent. Since surface communications are likely to be interrupted during these crises, the project also includes the capability to communicate disaster information via satellite to vital government officials in Puerto Rico, Haiti, and Dominican Republic.

  4. 76 FR 7508 - National Flood Insurance Program, Policy Wording Correction

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-02-10

    ...SECURITY Federal Emergency Management Agency 44 CFR Part 61...1660-AA70 National Flood Insurance Program...Federal Emergency Management Agency, DHS. ACTION...the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) provides...insurance protection against flood damage to...

  5. Use of Precipitation Data Derived from Satellite Data for Hydrologic Modeling: Flood Forecasting and Snowpack Monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Artan, G. A.; Shrestha, M.; Tokar, S.; Rowland, J.; Verdin, J. P.; Amer, S.

    2012-12-01

    Floods are the most common and widespread climate-related hazards throughout the globe. Most human losses due to floods occur in the tropical regions of Africa, Asia, and Central America. The use of flood forecasting can reduce the death toll associated with floods. Recent research suggests that the frequency and severity of extreme rainfall events will increase; therefore, there is an urgent need for timely flood forecasting. In those tropical regions, a paucity of the ground-based precipitation data collection networks and the lack of data sharing across international borders for trans-boundary basins have made it impractical to use traditional flood forecasting that relies on station-measured precipitation data. Precipitation estimated from satellite data offers an effective means for calculating areal precipitation estimates in sparsely gauged regions. Because of the apparent uncertainty associated with satellite-based precipitation estimates, the use of such data in hydrologic modeling has been limited in the past. We will present results from our research on the utility of precipitation estimates from satellite data for flood forecasting and snowpack monitoring purposes. We found that remotely sensed precipitation data in combination with distributed hydrologic models can play an important role in early warning and monitoring of floods. For large basins the results of hydrologic models forced with satellite-based precipitation were comparable those the stream flow simulated stream using precipitation measured with ground-based networks. Snowpack simulated with precipitation estimates from satellite data underestimated the snow water content compared with snow water recorded by the SNOTEL network or simulated by SNODAS system; nevertheless, the estimates were found to be useful in mapping the snowpack.

  6. A modeling approach for operational flash flood forecasting for small-scale watersheds in central Iowa

    Microsoft Academic Search

    William Scott Lincoln

    2009-01-01

    National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters currently have access to a limited set of models that may not be suitable for all Iowa basins or forecasting situations, such as small, fast responding streams. Flexible modeling systems that allow model configurations to change according to the watershed characteristics may provide useful predictive information to supplement existing forecast products. The United States Army

  7. A channel dynamics model for real-time flood forecasting

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hoos, A.B.; Koussis, A.D.; Beale, G.O.

    1989-01-01

    A new channel dynamics scheme ASPIRE (alternative system predictor in real time), designed specifically for real-time river flow forecasting, is introduced to reduce uncertainty in the forecast. ASPIRE is a storage routing model that limits the influence of catchment model forecast errors to the downstream station closest to the catchment. Comparisons with the Muskingum routing scheme in field tests suggest that the ASPIRE scheme can provide more accurate forecasts, probably because discharge observations are used to a maximum advantage and routing reaches (and model errors in each reach) are uncoupled. Using ASPIRE in conjunction with the Kalman filter did not improve forecast accuracy relative to a deterministic updating procedure. Theoretical analysis suggests that this is due to a large process noise to measurement noise ratio. -Authors

  8. THE GREAT NILE FLOODS OF 1998 AND 1999 ; SUCESSFUL FORECASTS USING SOLAR TERRESTRIAL RELATIONS AND REAL DATA

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Shahinaz Yousef; Hassan Osman

    In 1995,in a paper on long range forecasting of Nile floods , the first author stressed the possibility of successive high floods and called upon the Egyptian authorities to be ready with the Tushka canal. Indeed , the 1996 was the first high flood in the series and there was a spillage for the first time in the Tushka canal.

  9. Satellite-supported flood forecasting in river networks: A real case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    García-Pintado, Javier; Mason, David C.; Dance, Sarah L.; Cloke, Hannah L.; Neal, Jeff C.; Freer, Jim; Bates, Paul D.

    2015-04-01

    Satellite-based (e.g., Synthetic Aperture Radar [SAR]) water level observations (WLOs) of the floodplain can be sequentially assimilated into a hydrodynamic model to decrease forecast uncertainty. This has the potential to keep the forecast on track, so providing an Earth Observation (EO) based flood forecast system. However, the operational applicability of such a system for floods developed over river networks requires further testing. One of the promising techniques for assimilation in this field is the family of ensemble Kalman (EnKF) filters. These filters use a limited-size ensemble representation of the forecast error covariance matrix. This representation tends to develop spurious correlations as the forecast-assimilation cycle proceeds, which is a further complication for dealing with floods in either urban areas or river junctions in rural environments. Here we evaluate the assimilation of WLOs obtained from a sequence of real SAR overpasses (the X-band COSMO-Skymed constellation) in a case study. We show that a direct application of a global Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) suffers from filter divergence caused by spurious correlations. However, a spatially-based filter localization provides a substantial moderation in the development of the forecast error covariance matrix, directly improving the forecast and also making it possible to further benefit from a simultaneous online inflow error estimation and correction. Additionally, we propose and evaluate a novel along-network metric for filter localization, which is physically-meaningful for the flood over a network problem. Using this metric, we further evaluate the simultaneous estimation of channel friction and spatially-variable channel bathymetry, for which the filter seems able to converge simultaneously to sensible values. Results also indicate that friction is a second order effect in flood inundation models applied to gradually varied flow in large rivers. The study is not conclusive regarding whether in an operational situation the simultaneous estimation of friction and bathymetry helps the current forecast. Overall, the results indicate the feasibility of stand-alone EO-based operational flood forecasting.

  10. The suitability of remotely sensed soil moisture for improving operational flood forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wanders, N.; Karssenberg, D.; de Roo, A.; de Jong, S. M.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2013-11-01

    We evaluate the added value of assimilated remotely sensed soil moisture for the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) and its potential to improve the prediction of the timing and height of the flood peak and low flows. EFAS is an operational flood forecasting system for Europe and uses a distributed hydrological model for flood predictions with lead times up to 10 days. For this study, satellite-derived soil moisture from ASCAT, AMSR-E and SMOS is assimilated into the EFAS system for the Upper Danube basin and results are compared to assimilation of discharge observations only. To assimilate soil moisture and discharge data into EFAS, an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is used. Information on the spatial (cross-) correlation of the errors in the satellite products, is included to ensure optimal performance of the EnKF. For the validation, additional discharge observations not used in the EnKF, are used as an independent validation dataset. Our results show that the accuracy of flood forecasts is increased when more discharge observations are assimilated; the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of the ensemble mean is reduced by 65%. The additional inclusion of satellite data results in a further increase of the performance: forecasts of base flows are better and the uncertainty in the overall discharge is reduced, shown by a 10% reduction in the MAE. In addition, floods are predicted with a higher accuracy and the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) shows a performance increase of 5-10% on average, compared to assimilation of discharge only. When soil moisture data is used, the timing errors in the flood predictions are decreased especially for shorter lead times and imminent floods can be forecasted with more skill. The number of false flood alerts is reduced when more data is assimilated into the system and the best performance is achieved with the assimilation of both discharge and satellite observations. The additional gain is highest when discharge observations from both upstream and downstream areas are used in combination with the soil moisture data. These results show the potential of remotely sensed soil moisture observations to improve near-real time flood forecasting in large catchments.

  11. The suitability of remotely sensed soil moisture for improving operational flood forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wanders, N.; Karssenberg, D.; de Roo, A.; de Jong, S. M.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2014-06-01

    We evaluate the added value of assimilated remotely sensed soil moisture for the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) and its potential to improve the prediction of the timing and height of the flood peak and low flows. EFAS is an operational flood forecasting system for Europe and uses a distributed hydrological model (LISFLOOD) for flood predictions with lead times of up to 10 days. For this study, satellite-derived soil moisture from ASCAT (Advanced SCATterometer), AMSR-E (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - Earth Observing System) and SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) is assimilated into the LISFLOOD model for the Upper Danube Basin and results are compared to assimilation of discharge observations only. To assimilate soil moisture and discharge data into the hydrological model, an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is used. Information on the spatial (cross-) correlation of the errors in the satellite products, is included to ensure increased performance of the EnKF. For the validation, additional discharge observations not used in the EnKF are used as an independent validation data set. Our results show that the accuracy of flood forecasts is increased when more discharge observations are assimilated; the mean absolute error (MAE) of the ensemble mean is reduced by 35%. The additional inclusion of satellite data results in a further increase of the performance: forecasts of baseflows are better and the uncertainty in the overall discharge is reduced, shown by a 10% reduction in the MAE. In addition, floods are predicted with a higher accuracy and the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) shows a performance increase of 5-10% on average, compared to assimilation of discharge only. When soil moisture data is used, the timing errors in the flood predictions are decreased especially for shorter lead times and imminent floods can be forecasted with more skill. The number of false flood alerts is reduced when more observational data is assimilated into the system. The added values of the satellite data is largest when these observations are assimilated in combination with distributed discharge observations. These results show the potential of remotely sensed soil moisture observations to improve near-real time flood forecasting in large catchments.

  12. On noise specification in data assimilation schemes for improved flood forecasting using distributed hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Noh, S.; Rakovec, O.; Weerts, A.; Tachikawa, Y.

    2013-12-01

    While important advances have been achieved in flood forecasting, due to various uncertainties that originate from simulation models, observations, and forcing data, they are still insufficient to obtain accurate prediction results with the required lead times. To increase the certainty of the hydrological forecast, data assimilation (DA) may be utilized to consider or propagate all of these sources of uncertainty through the hydrological modelling chain embedded in a flood forecasting system. Although numerous sophisticated DA algorithms have been proposed to mitigate uncertainty, DA methods dealing with the correction of model inputs, states, and initial conditions are conducted in a rather empirical and subjective way, which may reduce credibility and transparency to operational forecasts. In this study, we investigate the effect of noise specification on the quality of hydrological forecasts via an advanced DA procedure using a distributed hydrological model driven by numerical weather predictions. The sequential DA procedure is based on (1) a multivariate rainfall ensemble generator, which provides spatial and temporal correlation error structures of input forcing and (2) lagged particle filtering to update past and current state variables simultaneously in a lag-time window to consider the response times of internal hydrologic processes. The strength of the proposed procedure is that it requires less subjectivity to implement DA compared to conventional methods using consistent and objectively-induced error models. The procedure is evaluated for streamflow forecasting of three flood events in two Japanese medium-sized catchments. The rainfall ensembles are derived from ground based rain gauge observations for the analysis step and numerical weather predictions for the forecast step. Sensitivity analysis is performed to assess the impacts of uncertainties coming from DA such as random walk state noise and different DA methods with/without objectively-induced rainfall uncertainty conditions. The results show that multivariate rainfall ensembles provide sound input perturbations and model states updated by lagged particle filtering produce improved streamflow forecasts in conjunction with fine-resolution numerical weather predictions.

  13. Impact of Different Data Assimilation Strategies for SMOS Observations on Flood Forecasting Accuracy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pauwels, V. R. N.; Verhoest, N.; Lievens, H.; Martens, B.; van Den Berg, M. J.; Al-Bitar, A.; Merlin, O.; Kumar Tomer, S.; Cabot, F.; Kerr, Y. H.; Pan, M.; Wood, E. F.; Drusch, M.; Hendricks Franssen, H. J.; Vereecken, H.; De Lannoy, G. J. M.; Dumedah, G.; Walker, J. P.

    2014-12-01

    During the last decade, significant efforts have been directed towards establishing and improving flood forecasting systems for large river basins. Examples include the European Flood Alert System, and the Bureau of Meteorology Flood Warning Systems in Australia. A number of attempts have also been made to increase the accuracy of the forecasted flood volumes from these systems. One attractive way in which this can be achieved is to use remotely sensed surface soil moisture contents to constrain the hydrologic model predictions. Satellite missions such as SMOS can provide very useful information on the wetness conditions of these basins, which in many cases is an important initial condition for discharge generation. Assimilation of these satellite data is thus a logical way to proceed. We will present results from two different assimilation strategies for the Murray-Darling basin in Australia using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. Firstly, the SMOS soil moisture data are assimilated into the hydrologic model at their original spatial resolution. As the spatial resolution of the remote sensing data (25 km) is coarser than the spatial resolution of the model (10 km), a multiscale data assimilation algorithm needs to be implemented. Secondly, the SMOS data are downscaled to the model resolution, prior to their assimilation. In this presentation, the impact of the assimilation of both products on the accuracy of the forecasted flood volumes is assessed.

  14. Operational aspects of asynchronous filtering for flood forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rakovec, O.; Weerts, A. H.; Sumihar, J.; Uijlenhoet, R.

    2015-06-01

    This study investigates the suitability of the asynchronous ensemble Kalman filter (AEnKF) and a partitioned updating scheme for hydrological forecasting. The AEnKF requires forward integration of the model for the analysis and enables assimilation of current and past observations simultaneously at a single analysis step. The results of discharge assimilation into a grid-based hydrological model (using a soil moisture error model) for the Upper Ourthe catchment in the Belgian Ardennes show that including past predictions and observations in the data assimilation method improves the model forecasts. Additionally, we show that elimination of the strongly non-linear relation between the soil moisture storage and assimilated discharge observations from the model update becomes beneficial for improved operational forecasting, which is evaluated using several validation measures.

  15. Assimilation of Satellite Based Soil Moisture Data in the National Weather Service's Flash Flood Guidance System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seo, D.; Lakhankar, T.; Cosgrove, B.; Khanbilvardi, R.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change and variability increases the probability of frequency, timing, intensity, and duration of flood events. After rainfall, soil moisture is the most important factor dictating flash flooding, since rainfall infiltration and runoff are based on the saturation of the soil. It is difficult to conduct ground-based measurements of soil moisture consistently and regionally. As such, soil moisture is often derived from models and agencies such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service (NOAA/NWS) use proxy estimates of soil moisture at the surface in order support operational flood forecasting. In particular, a daily national map of Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) is produced that is based on surface soil moisture deficit and threshold runoff estimates. Flash flood warnings are issued by Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) and are underpinned by information from the Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) system operated by the River Forecast Centers (RFCs). This study analyzes the accuracy and limitations of the FFG system using reported flash flood cases in 2010 and 2011. The flash flood reports were obtained from the NWS Storm Event database for the Arkansas-Red Basin RFC (ABRFC). The current FFG system at the ABRFC provides gridded flash flood guidance (GFFG) System using the NWS Hydrology Laboratory-Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM) to translate the upper zone soil moisture to estimates of Soil Conservation Service Curve Numbers. Comparison of the GFFG and real-time Multi-sensor Precipitation Estimator derived Quantitative Precipitation Estimate (QPE) for the same duration and location were used to analyze the success of the system. Improved flash flood forecasting requires accurate and high resolution soil surface information. The remote sensing observations of soil moisture can improve the flood forecasting accuracy. The Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP) and Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellites are two potential sources of remotely sensed soil moisture data. SMOS measures the microwave radiation emitted from the Earth's surface operating at L-band (1.20-1.41 GHz) to measure surface soil moisture directly. Microwave radiation at this wavelength offers relatively deeper penetration and has lower sensitivity to vegetation impacts. The main objective of this research is to evaluate the contribution of remote sensing technology to quantifiable improvements in flash flood applications as well as adding a remote sensing component to the NWS FFG Algorithm. The challenge of this study is employing the direct soil moisture data from SMOS to replace the model-calculated soil moisture state which is based on the soil water balance in 4 km x 4 km Hydrologic Rainfall Analysis Project (HRAP) grid cells. In order to determine the value of the satellite data to NWS operations, the streamflow generated by HL-RDHM with and without soil moisture assimilation will be compared to USGS gauge data. Furthermore, we will apply the satellite-based soil moisture data with the FFG algorithm to evaluate how many hits, misses and false alarms are generated. This study will evaluate the value of remote sensing data in constraining the state of the system for main-stem and flash flood forecasting.

  16. Application of stochastic differential equation to reservoir routing with probabilistic inflow forecasting and flood control risk analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liang, Z.; Hu, Y.; Wang, J.

    2012-04-01

    Real-time flood control of a reservoir system involves various uncertainties including the prediction uncertainty of inflow flood events, uncertainties in boundary conditions such as the reservoir storage curve, release capacity curve, and the uncertainty within the reservoir flood routing model itself. In this study, the hydrologic uncertainty processor (PUB) under the framework of Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) is adopted to quantify the uncertainty of flood prediction, providing with the probabilistic forecasting for real-time flood events. A Gaussian form of distribution is used to describe uncertainty of reservoir storage or release capacity; parameters of the distribution are estimated by historical measurements. In order to route the flood hydrograph with probability feature, i.e. a probabilistic forecasting flood event, stochastic differential equation (SDE) is introduced to build the reservoir flood routing model. By introducing a Gaussian white noise term, the traditional reservoir's water balance equation is altered to a kind of Ito stochastic differential equation. The solutions of Ito equation provide a probabilistic form of forecasting for reservoir stage process and outflow hydrograph. Both the analytical and numerical approaches are applied to solve the Ito stochastic differential equation, and their applicability for reservoir stochastic flood routing is testified. By assigning a specific flood limit level or reservoir beginning water level on which a real-time flood event is started to route through using the SDE, a corresponding probabilistic reservoir stage processes can be forecasted. For a designed control water level (DCWL), the risk rate or the largest probability that the forecasted reservoir stage excesses DCWL can be computed. Setting a series of flood limit levels, for a forecasted probabilistic inflow hydrograph, there obtains the corresponding reservoir stage processes, and in turn the risk rate of flood protection. By checking if the risk rate is less than a preassigned acceptable risk or flood control standard, a reasonable flood limit water level is determined to raise the utilization ratio of flood resources. As an example, the approach is applied to Dahuofang reservoir, which is located on Hun river in Northeast China. A typical flood event occurred in the flooding season of 2005 is analyzed to demonstrate the application of proposed procedure.

  17. River flood forecasting with a neural network model

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Marina Campolo; Paolo Andreussi; Alfredo Soldati

    1999-01-01

    A neural network model was developed to analyze and forecast the behavior of the river Tagliamento, in Italy, during heavy rain periods. The model makes use of distributed rainfall information coming from several rain gauges in the mountain district and predicts the water level of the river at the section closing the mountain district. The water level at the closing

  18. Remodeling and Flood Forecasting due to Climate Change and Land Used:

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohammad, Munira; Bárdossy, András.

    2010-05-01

    This study is to review the impact of climate change and land used on flooding through the SMART Project. It also simulate the Flood Forecasting in Klang River Basin in order to compare the changes in the existing river system in Klang River Basin with the Storm water Management and Road Tunnel (SMART) which is now already operating in the city center of Kuala Lumpur.The catchment area of the Klang River basin is 1,288 square kilometers (km2), and it is the most urbanized region in Malaysia, encompassing the Federal Territory of Kuala Lumpur and part of the state of Selangor. The basin spreads over nine local government authorities and faces serious environmental degradation and flooding problems from urbanization, industrialization, and population growth. More than half of the basin has been urbanized, and much of this continuing urban development has taken place on land that is prone to flooding. Flooding problem in Klang River Basin is still exist even measures and numerous flood mitigation projects and programs has been carried out by many parties. Even though that the new drainage guideline has been proposed since year 2000, flood reduction for Klang River basins is not successful enough. This problem contributed to the needs of this research to enhance the existing flood forecasting and mitigation project. This study analyzed and quantified the spatial patterns and time-variability of daily, monthly and yearly rainfall in Kuala Lumpur. An overview of rainfall patterns will be obtained through the analysis of 12 point data sources. Statistical properties of annual, monthly, and daily rainfall were derived. Spatial correlation fields for the annual and monthly rainfalls were studied.

  19. Verification of National Weather Service River Stage Forecasts

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Edwin Welles; Neftali Cajina; Hank Herr

    The National Weather Service (NWS) has initiated an effort to verify the river stage forecasts issued by the NWS River Forecast Centers. This effort has brought to light the difficulties associated with evaluating river forecasts at single points and aggregating scores over multiple points. As a first step toward developing a coherent set of statistics that effectively capture the quality

  20. A Rolling Flood Forecast Method for River Basins with Newly-Built Meteorological and Hydrological Station Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shi, H.

    2014-12-01

    Destructive flash floods occurred more frequently in the small and medium river basins in China recently. However, meteorological and hydrological station networks in such river basins were usually poor. Some of them were newly-built only several years ago so that long-series observations are unavailable; and therefore, it is impossible to gain the most suitable parameters for flood forecast from the historical data directly. This paper developed a rolling flood forecast method for such regions, taking the Leli River basin in Guangxi Province, China, as the study area. The Digital Yellow River Integrated Model (DYRIM) was adopted to simulate the streamflows of the Tianlin hydrological station for each flood during the study period, and the model parameters were rolling optimized in real time as follows. First, the parameters were calibrated with the observed rainfall and streamflow data of the first flood, and they were used to forecast the flood caused by the next rain. Second, when the rain came true, the parameters were modified with the newly-observed rainfall and streamflow data if the simulation result obtained with the parameters of the last flood was not satisfied; and the new parameters would be used to forecast the next flood. Through repeating the above two steps for each flood, the parameters may be optimized constantly; and finally, the value ranges of the parameters could be obtained. From a sample demonstration, it can be concluded that this flood forecast method was feasible; it would be valuable for the flood forecast of river basins with newly-built meteorological and hydrological station network.

  1. Downscaling Global Weather Forecast Outputs Using ANN for Flood Prediction

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Nam Do Hoai; Keiko Udo; Akira Mano

    2011-01-01

    Downscaling global weather prediction model outputs to individual locations or\\u000alocal scales is a common practice for operational weather forecast in order to\\u000acorrect the model outputs at subgrid scales. This paper presents an\\u000aempirical-statistical downscaling method for precipitation prediction which uses\\u000aa feed-forward multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network. The MLP architecture\\u000awas optimized by considering physical bases that determine

  2. The potential of satellite radar altimetry in flood forecasting: concept and implementation for the Niger-Benue river basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pandey, R.; Amarnath, G.

    2015-06-01

    Flood forecasting in the downstream part of any hydrological basin is extremely difficult due to the lack of basin-wide hydrological information in near real-time and the absence of a data-sharing treaty among the transboundary nations. The accuracy of forecasts emerging from a hydrological model could be compromised without prior knowledge of the day-to-day flow regulation at different locations upstream of the Niger and Benue rivers. Only satellite altimeter monitoring allows us to identify the actual river levels upstream that reflect the human intervention at that location. This is critical for making accurate downstream forecasts. This present study aims to demonstrate the capability of altimeter-based flood forecasting along the Niger-Benue River in Nigeria. The study includes the comparison of decadal (at every 10 days from Jason-2) or monthly (at every 35 days from Envisat/AltiKa) observations from 2002 to 2014, with historical in situ measurements from 1990 to 2012. The water level obtained from these sources shows a good correlation (0.7-0.9). After validation of hydrological parameters obtained from two sources, a quantitative relation (rating curve) of upstream water level and downstream discharge is derived. This relation is then adopted for calculation of discharge at observation points, which is used to propagate the flow downstream at a desired location using a hydraulic river model. Results from this study from Jason-2 shows a promising correlation (R2 ? 90% with a Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of more than 0.70) with 5~days ahead of downstream flow prediction over the Benue stream.

  3. Flood forecast in complex orography coupling distributed hydro-meteorological models and in-situ and remote sensing data

    Microsoft Academic Search

    M. Verdecchia; E. Coppola; C. Faccani; R. Ferretti; A. Memmo; M. Montopoli; G. Rivolta; T. Paolucci; E. Picciotti; A. Santacasa; B. Tomassetti; G. Visconti; F. S. Marzano

    2008-01-01

    Summary  A flood forecast chain, developed at the Centre of Excellence for Remote Sensing and Hydro-Meteorology (CETEMPS) and based\\u000a on coupled mesoscale atmospheric and a newly developed distributed hydrological model with in-situ and remote sensing data\\u000a integration, is illustrated. The focus is on small-catchment flood forecast in complex topography in Central Italy, but the\\u000a developed modelling and processing integrated tools may

  4. Probabilistic flood forecasting for Rapid Response Catchments using a countrywide distributed hydrological model: experience from the UK

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cole, Steven J.; Moore, Robert J.; Robson, Alice J.; Mattingley, Paul S.

    2014-05-01

    Across Britain, floods in rapidly responding catchments are a major concern and regularly cause significant damage (e.g. Boscastle 2004, Morpeth 2008, Cornwall 2010 and Comrie 2012). Typically these catchments have a small area and are characterised by steep slopes and/or significant suburban/urban land-cover. The meteorological drivers can be of convective origin or frontal with locally intense features (e.g. embedded convection or orographic enhancement); saturated catchments can amplify the flood response. Both rainfall and flood forecasting for Rapid Response Catchments (RRCs)are very challenging due to the often small-scale nature of the intense rainfall which is of most concern, the small catchment areas, and the short catchment response times. Over the last 3 to 4 years, new countrywide Flood Forecasting Systems based on the Grid-to-Grid (G2G) distributed hydrological (rainfall-runoff and routing) model have been implemented across Britain for use by the Flood Forecasting Centre and Scottish Flood Forecasting Service. This has achieved a step-change in operational capability with forecasts of flooding several days ahead "everywhere" on a 1 km grid now possible. The modelling and forecasting approach underpins countrywide Flood Guidance Statements out to 5 days which are used by emergency response organisations for planning and preparedness. The initial focus of these systems has been to provide a countrywide overview of flood risk. However, recent research has explored the potential of the G2G approach to support more frequent and detailed alerts relevant to flood warning in RRCs. Integral to this activity is the use of emerging high-resolution (~1.5km) rainfall forecast products, in deterministic and ensemble form. High spatial resolutions are required to capture some of the small-scale processes and intense rainfall features such as orographic enhancement and convective storm evolution. Even though a deterministic high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) model can provide realistic looking rainfall forecasts, significant uncertainties remain in timing, location and whether a particular feature develops or not. Generally the smaller the scale of the rainfall feature, the shorter the lead-time at which these uncertainties become important. Therefore ensembles are needed to provide uncertainty context for longer lead-time G2G flow forecasts, particularly for small-scale RRCs. A systematic assessment framework has been developed for exploring and understanding the utility of G2G flood forecasts for RRCs. Firstly perfect knowledge of rainfall observations is assumed for past and future times, so as not to confound the hydrological model analysis with errors from rainfall forecasts. Secondly an assessment is made of using deterministic rainfall forecasts (from NWP UKV) in a full emulation of real-time G2G forecasts, and using foreknowledge of rainfall observations as a reference baseline. Finally use of rainfall forecast ensembles with G2G to produce probabilistic flood forecasts is considered, empploying a combination of case-study and longer-term analyses. Blended Ensemble rainfall forecasts (combining radar ensemble nowcast and NWP rainfalls) are assessed in two forms: forecasts out to 24 hours updated 4 times a day, and nowcasts out to 7 hours updated every 15 minutes. Results from the assessment will be presented along with candidates for new operational products and tools that can support flood warning for RRCs, taking account of the inherent uncertainty in the forecasts.

  5. Use of geostationary meteorological satellite images in convective rain estimation for flash-flood forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wardah, T.; Abu Bakar, S. H.; Bardossy, A.; Maznorizan, M.

    2008-07-01

    SummaryFrequent flash-floods causing immense devastation in the Klang River Basin of Malaysia necessitate an improvement in the real-time forecasting systems being used. The use of meteorological satellite images in estimating rainfall has become an attractive option for improving the performance of flood forecasting-and-warning systems. In this study, a rainfall estimation algorithm using the infrared (IR) information from the Geostationary Meteorological Satellite-5 (GMS-5) is developed for potential input in a flood forecasting system. Data from the records of GMS-5 IR images have been retrieved for selected convective cells to be trained with the radar rain rate in a back-propagation neural network. The selected data as inputs to the neural network, are five parameters having a significant correlation with the radar rain rate: namely, the cloud-top brightness-temperature of the pixel of interest, the mean and the standard deviation of the temperatures of the surrounding five by five pixels, the rate of temperature change, and the sobel operator that indicates the temperature gradient. In addition, three numerical weather prediction (NWP) products, namely the precipitable water content, relative humidity, and vertical wind, are also included as inputs. The algorithm is applied for the areal rainfall estimation in the upper Klang River Basin and compared with another technique that uses power-law regression between the cloud-top brightness-temperature and radar rain rate. Results from both techniques are validated against previously recorded Thiessen areal-averaged rainfall values with coefficient correlation values of 0.77 and 0.91 for the power-law regression and the artificial neural network (ANN) technique, respectively. An extra lead time of around 2 h is gained when the satellite-based ANN rainfall estimation is coupled with a rainfall-runoff model to forecast a flash-flood event in the upper Klang River Basin.

  6. Simulating and Forecasting Flooding Events in the City of Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghostine, Rabih; Viswanadhapalli, Yesubabu; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2014-05-01

    Metropolitan cities in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, as Jeddah and Riyadh, are more frequently experiencing flooding events caused by strong convective storms that produce intense precipitation over a short span of time. The flooding in the city of Jeddah in November 2009 was described by civil defense officials as the worst in 27 years. As of January 2010, 150 people were reported killed and more than 350 were missing. Another flooding event, less damaging but comparably spectacular, occurred one year later (Jan 2011) in Jeddah. Anticipating floods before they occur could minimize human and economic losses through the implementation of appropriate protection, provision and rescue plans. We have developed a coupled hydro-meteorological model for simulating and predicting flooding events in the city of Jeddah. We use the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model assimilating all available data in the Jeddah region for simulating the storm events in Jeddah. The resulting rain is then used on 10 minutes intervals to feed up an advanced numerical shallow water model that has been discretized on an unstructured grid using different numerical schemes based on the finite elements or finite volume techniques. The model was integrated on a high-resolution grid size varying between 0.5m within the streets of Jeddah and 500m outside the city. This contribution will present the flooding simulation system and the simulation results, focusing on the comparison of the different numerical schemes on the system performances in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency.

  7. Comparison of regression models, grey models, and supervised learning models for forecasting flood stage caused by typhoon events

    Microsoft Academic Search

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, four simple dynamic prediction methods and two supervised learning techniques including a linear regression model, a quadratic regression model, an original grey prediction model, a modified grey prediction model, a back?propagation neural network model, and an epsilon?SVM regression model were investigated for the forecasting of flood stage one hour ahead for early warning of flooding hazards. Quantitative

  8. Towards spatially distributed flood forecasts in flash flood prone areas: application to the supervision of a road network in the South of France

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naulin, Jean-Philippe; Payrastre, Olivier; Gaume, Eric; Delrieu, Guy

    2013-04-01

    Accurate flood forecasts are crucial for an efficient flood event management. Until now, hydro-meteorological forecasts have been mainly used for early-warnings in France (Meteorological and flood vigilance maps) or over the world (Flash-flood guidances). These forecasts are generally limited to the main streams covered by the flood forecasting services or to specific watersheds with particular assets like check dams which are in most cases well gauged river sections, leaving aside large parts of the territory. A distributed hydro-meteorological forecasting approach will be presented, able to take advantage of the high spatial and temporal resolution rainfall estimates that are now available to provide information at ungauged sites. The proposed system aiming at detecting road inundation risks had been initially developed and tested in areas of limited size. Its extension to a whole region (the Gard region in the South of France) will be presented, including over 2000 crossing points between rivers and roads and its validation against a large data set of actually reported road inundations observed during recent flash-flood events. These first validation results appear promising. Such a tool would provide the necessary information for flood event management services to identify the areas at risk and to take the appropriate safety and rescue measures: pre-positioning of rescue means, stopping of the traffic on exposed roads, determination of safe accesses or evacuation routes. Moreover, beyond the specific application to the supervision of a road network, this work provides also results concerning the performances of hydro-meteorological forecasts for ungauged headwaters.

  9. A real-time flood forecasting and simulation system based on GIS and DEM: Analysis of sensitivity to scale factors

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Sandra G. Garcia

    2000-01-01

    The hydrometeorological telemetric networks in real time interrelated with weather forecasting and rainfall information obtained from remote sensing, constitute real forecasting and protection instruments in the event of flash flooding, so typical of semiarid environments. In this Thesis, spatial analysis approached with functions embedded in a Geographical Information System (GIS) are proposed. The aims are: (a) To combine efficiently information

  10. Flooding in Virginia

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    Drew Patrick

    In this activity, students use a National Weather Service flood forecast, USGS gauging data, and other reports to estimate the maximum storm discharge from the New River and Wolf Creek, two streams in the Southeast U.S. which experienced flooding in November 2003. Topographic and urban maps are used to predict where flooding would occur and to evaluate strategies for reducing flood risk for the residents of the region.

  11. A search for model parsimony in a real time flood forecasting system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grossi, G.; Balistrocchi, M.

    2009-04-01

    As regards the hydrological simulation of flood events, a physically based distributed approach is the most appealing one, especially in those areas where the spatial variability of the soil hydraulic properties as well as of the meteorological forcing cannot be left apart, such as in mountainous regions. On the other hand, dealing with real time flood forecasting systems, less detailed models requiring a minor number of parameters may be more convenient, reducing both the computational costs and the calibration uncertainty. In fact in this case a precise quantification of the entire hydrograph pattern is not necessary, while the expected output of a real time flood forecasting system is just an estimate of the peak discharge, the time to peak and in some cases the flood volume. In this perspective a parsimonious model has to be found in order to increase the efficiency of the system. A suitable case study was identified in the northern Apennines: the Taro river is a right tributary to the Po river and drains about 2000 km2 of mountains, hills and floodplain, equally distributed . The hydrometeorological monitoring of this medium sized watershed is managed by ARPA Emilia Romagna through a dense network of uptodate gauges (about 30 rain gauges and 10 hydrometers). Detailed maps of the surface elevation, land use and soil texture characteristics are also available. Five flood events were recorded by the new monitoring network in the years 2003-2007: during these events the peak discharge was higher than 1000 m3/s, which is actually quite a high value when compared to the mean discharge rate of about 30 m3/s. The rainfall spatial patterns of such storms were analyzed in previous works by means of geostatistical tools and a typical semivariogram was defined, with the aim of establishing a typical storm structure leading to flood events in the Taro river. The available information was implemented into a distributed flood event model with a spatial resolution of 90m; then the hydrologic detail was reduced by progressively assuming a uniform rainfall field and constant soil properties. A semi-distributed model, obtained by subdividing the catchment into three sub-catchment, and a lumped model were also applied to simulate the selected flood events. Errors were quantified in terms of the peak discharge ratio, the flood volume and the time to peak by comparing the simulated hydrographs to the observed ones.

  12. Historical Floods in the Northeast

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    This site reviews major flooding in the Northeastern United States, as reported by the Northeast River Forecast Center (NERFC), a division of the National Weather Service. It includes photos, rainfall maps, and descriptions of record-breaking floods that occured between the years 1927 and 1996. Descriptions include specific causes of flooding, weather patterns leading up to flooding, as well as results and actions taken due to flooding in the regions discussed.

  13. FLOOD RISK - OPTIMIZING A NATIONAL PROGRAM

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Charles Scawthorn

    Floods are a major natural hazard substantially impacting the developed and developing world. Recent floods have caused near-record natural hazards losses in regions as disparate as Mozambique, and central and eastern Europe. A comprehensive detailed analysis was performed for a Study Region in eastern Europe, with the goal of identifying an economically efficient insurance program appropriate for that region. A

  14. The total probabilities from high-resolution ensemble forecasting of floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olav Skøien, Jon; Bogner, Konrad; Salamon, Peter; Smith, Paul; Pappenberger, Florian

    2015-04-01

    Ensemble forecasting has for a long time been used in meteorological modelling, to give an indication of the uncertainty of the forecasts. As meteorological ensemble forecasts often show some bias and dispersion errors, there is a need for calibration and post-processing of the ensembles. Typical methods for this are Bayesian Model Averaging (Raftery et al., 2005) and Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) (Gneiting et al., 2005). There are also methods for regionalizing these methods (Berrocal et al., 2007) and for incorporating the correlation between lead times (Hemri et al., 2013). To make optimal predictions of floods along the stream network in hydrology, we can easily use the ensemble members as input to the hydrological models. However, some of the post-processing methods will need modifications when regionalizing the forecasts outside the calibration locations, as done by Hemri et al. (2013). We present a method for spatial regionalization of the post-processed forecasts based on EMOS and top-kriging (Skøien et al., 2006). We will also look into different methods for handling the non-normality of runoff and the effect on forecasts skills in general and for floods in particular. Berrocal, V. J., Raftery, A. E. and Gneiting, T.: Combining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in Probabilistic Weather Forecasts, Mon. Weather Rev., 135(4), 1386-1402, doi:10.1175/MWR3341.1, 2007. Gneiting, T., Raftery, A. E., Westveld, A. H. and Goldman, T.: Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting Using Ensemble Model Output Statistics and Minimum CRPS Estimation, Mon. Weather Rev., 133(5), 1098-1118, doi:10.1175/MWR2904.1, 2005. Hemri, S., Fundel, F. and Zappa, M.: Simultaneous calibration of ensemble river flow predictions over an entire range of lead times, Water Resour. Res., 49(10), 6744-6755, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20542, 2013. Raftery, A. E., Gneiting, T., Balabdaoui, F. and Polakowski, M.: Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Calibrate Forecast Ensembles, Mon. Weather Rev., 133(5), 1155-1174, doi:10.1175/MWR2906.1, 2005. Skøien, J. O., Merz, R. and Blöschl, G.: Top-kriging - Geostatistics on stream networks, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 10(2), 277-287, 2006.

  15. Building Cyberinfrastructure to Support a Real-time National Flood Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salas, F. R.; Maidment, D. R.; Tolle, K.; Navarro, C.; David, C. H.; Corby, R.

    2014-12-01

    The National Weather Service (NWS) is divided into 13 regional forecast centers across the country where the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model is run on average over a 10 day period, 5 days in the past and 5 days in the future. Model inputs and outputs such as precipitation and surface runoff are spatially aggregated over approximately 6,600 forecast basins with an average area of 1,200 square kilometers. In contrast, the NHDPlus dataset, which represents the geospatial fabric of the country, defines over 3 million catchments with an average area of 3 square kilometers. Downscaling the NWS land surface model outputs to the NHDPlus catchment scale in real-time requires the development of cyberinfrastructure to manage, share, compute and visualize large quantities of hydrologic data; streamflow computations through time for over 3 million river reaches. Between September 2014 and May 2015, the National Flood Interoperability Experiment (NFIE), coordinated through the Integrated Water Resource Science and Services (IWRSS) partners, will focus on building a national flood model for the country. This experiment will work to seamlessly integrate data and model services available on local and cloud servers (e.g. Azure) through disparate data sources operating at various spatial and temporal scales. As such, this paper will present a scalable information model that leverages the Routing Application for Parallel Computation of Discharge (RAPID) model to produce real-time flow estimates for approximately 67,000 NHDPlus river reaches in the NWS West Gulf River Forecast Center region.

  16. Development of Hydrological Model of Klang River Valley for flood forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohammad, M.; Andras, B.

    2012-12-01

    This study is to review the impact of climate change and land used on flooding through the Klang River and to compare the changes in the existing river system in Klang River Basin with the Storm water Management and Road Tunnel (SMART) which is now already operating in the city centre of Kuala Lumpur. Klang River Basin is the most urbanized region in Malaysia. More than half of the basin has been urbanized on the land that is prone to flooding. Numerous flood mitigation projects and studies have been carried out to enhance the existing flood forecasting and mitigation project. The objective of this study is to develop a hydrological model for flood forecasting in Klang Basin Malaysia. Hydrological modelling generally requires large set of input data and this is more often a challenge for a developing country. Due to this limitation, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rainfall measurement, initiated by the US space agency NASA and Japanese space agency JAXA was used in this study. TRMM data was transformed and corrected by quantile to quantile transformation. However, transforming the data based on ground measurement doesn't make any significant improvement and the statistical comparison shows only 10% difference. The conceptual HYMOD model was used in this study and calibrated using ROPE algorithm. But, using the whole time series of the observation period in this area resulted in insufficient performance. The depth function which used in ROPE algorithm are then used to identified and calibrated using only unusual event to observed the improvement and efficiency of the model.

  17. Development Of An Open System For Integration Of Heterogeneous Models For Flood Forecasting And Hazard Mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, W.; Tsai, W.; Lin, F.; Lin, S.; Lien, H.; Chung, T.; Huang, L.; Lee, K.; Chang, C.

    2008-12-01

    During a typhoon or a heavy storm event, using various forecasting models to predict rainfall intensity, and water level variation in rivers and flood situation in the urban area is able to reveal its capability technically. However, in practice, the following two causes tend to restrain the further application of these models as a decision support system (DSS) for the hazard mitigation. The first one is due to the difficulty of integration of heterogeneous models. One has to take into consideration the different using format of models, such as input files, output files, computational requirements, and so on. The second one is that the development of DSS requires, due to the heterogeneity of models and systems, a friendly user interface or platform to hide the complexity of various tools from users. It is expected that users can be governmental officials rather than professional experts, therefore the complicated interface of DSS is not acceptable. Based on the above considerations, in the present study, we develop an open system for integration of several simulation models for flood forecasting by adopting the FEWS (Flood Early Warning System) platform developed by WL | Delft Hydraulics. It allows us to link heterogeneous models effectively and provides suitable display modules. In addition, FEWS also has been adopted by Water Resource Agency (WRA), Taiwan as the standard operational system for river flooding management. That means this work can be much easily integrated with the use of practical cases. In the present study, based on FEWS platform, the basin rainfall-runoff model, SOBEK channel-routing model, and estuary tide forecasting model are linked and integrated through the physical connection of model initial and boundary definitions. The work flow of the integrated processes of models is shown in Fig. 1. This differs from the typical single model linking used in FEWS, which only aims at data exchange but without much physical consideration. So it really makes the tighter collaboration work among these hydrological models. In addition, in order to make communication between system users and decision makers efficient and effective, a real-time and multi-user communication platform, designated as Co-life, is incorporated in the present study. Through its application sharing function, the flood forecasting results can be displayed for all attendees situated at different locations to help the processes of decision making for hazard mitigation. Fig. 2 shows the cyber-conference of WRA officials with the Co-life system for hazard mitigation during the typhoon event.

  18. Skill in Precipitation Forecasting in the National Weather Service

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Jerome P. Charba; William H. Klein

    1980-01-01

    All known long-term records of forecasting performance for different types of precipitation forecasts in the National Weather Service were examined for relative skill and secular trends in skill. The largest upward trends were achieved by local probability of precipitation (PoP) forecasts for the periods 24-36 h and 36-48 h after 0000 and 1200 GMT. Over the last 13 years, the

  19. Improving the effectiveness of real-time flood forecasting through Predictive Uncertainty estimation: the multi-temporal approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barbetta, Silvia; Coccia, Gabriele; Moramarco, Tommaso; Todini, Ezio

    2015-04-01

    The negative effects of severe flood events are usually contrasted through structural measures that, however, do not fully eliminate flood risk. Non-structural measures, such as real-time flood forecasting and warning, are also required. Accurate stage/discharge future predictions with appropriate forecast lead-time are sought by decision-makers for implementing strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of floods. Traditionally, flood forecasting has been approached by using rainfall-runoff and/or flood routing modelling. Indeed, both types of forecasts, cannot be considered perfectly representing future outcomes because of lacking of a complete knowledge of involved processes (Todini, 2004). Nonetheless, although aware that model forecasts are not perfectly representing future outcomes, decision makers are de facto implicitly assuming the forecast of water level/discharge/volume, etc. as "deterministic" and coinciding with what is going to occur. Recently the concept of Predictive Uncertainty (PU) was introduced in hydrology (Krzysztofowicz, 1999), and several uncertainty processors were developed (Todini, 2008). PU is defined as the probability of occurrence of the future realization of a predictand (water level/discharge/volume) conditional on: i) prior observations and knowledge, ii) the available information obtained on the future value, typically provided by one or more forecast models. Unfortunately, PU has been frequently interpreted as a measure of lack of accuracy rather than the appropriate tool allowing to take the most appropriate decisions, given a model or several models' forecasts. With the aim to shed light on the benefits for appropriately using PU, a multi-temporal approach based on the MCP approach (Todini, 2008; Coccia and Todini, 2011) is here applied to stage forecasts at sites along the Upper Tiber River. Specifically, the STAge Forecasting-Rating Curve Model Muskingum-based (STAFOM-RCM) (Barbetta et al., 2014) along with the Rating-Curve Model in Real Time (RCM-RT) (Barbetta and Moramarco, 2014) are used to this end. Both models without considering rainfall information explicitly considers, at each time of forecast, the estimate of lateral contribution along the river reach for which the stage forecast is performed at downstream end. The analysis is performed for several reaches using different lead times according to the channel length. Barbetta, S., Moramarco, T., Brocca, L., Franchini, M. and Melone, F. 2014. Confidence interval of real-time forecast stages provided by the STAFOM-RCM model: the case study of the Tiber River (Italy). Hydrological Processes, 28(3),729-743. Barbetta, S. and Moramarco, T. 2014. Real-time flood forecasting by relating local stage and remote discharge. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59(9 ), 1656-1674. Coccia, G. and Todini, E. 2011. Recent developments in predictive uncertainty assessment based on the Model Conditional Processor approach. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 3253-3274. doi:10.5194/hess-15-3253-2011. Krzysztofowicz, R. 1999. Bayesian theory of probabilistic forecasting via deterministic hydrologic model, Water Resour. Res., 35, 2739-2750. Todini, E. 2004. Role and treatment of uncertainty in real-time flood forecasting. Hydrological Processes 18(14), 2743_2746. Todini, E. 2008. A model conditional processor to assess predictive uncertainty in flood forecasting. Intl. J. River Basin Management, 6(2): 123-137.

  20. Comparative Verification of Recent Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts in the National Weather Service: A Simple Approach for Scoring Forecast Accuracy

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Jerome P. Charba; David W. Reynolds; Brett E. McDonald; Gary M. Carter

    2003-01-01

    Comparative verification of operational 6-h quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) products used for stream- flow models run at National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers (RFCs) is presented. The QPF products include 1) national guidance produced by operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models run at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), 2) guidance produced by forecasters at the Hydrometeorological Prediction

  1. Data assimilation method for real-time flash flood forecasting using a physically based distributed model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Larnier, K.; Roux, H.; Garambois, P.; Dartus, D.

    2012-04-01

    The MARINE model (Roux et al, 2011) is a physically based distributed model dedicated to real time flash flood forecasting on small to medium catchments. The infiltration capacity is evaluated by the Green and Ampt equation and the surface runoff calculation is divided into two parts: the land surface flow and the flow in the drainage network both based on kinematic wave hypothesis. In order to take into account rainfall spatial-temporal variability as well as the various behaviours of soil types among the catchment, the model is spatially distributed, which can also help to understand the flood driving processes. The model integrates remote sensing data such as the land coverage map with spatial resolution adapted to hydrological scales. Minimal data requirements for the model are: the Digital Elevation Model describing catchment topography and the location and description of the drainage network. Moreover some parameters are not directly measurable and need to be calibrated. Most of the sources of uncertainties can be propagated thanks to variational method (Castaings et al, 2009) and finally help to determine time dependent uncertainty intervals. This study also investigates the methodology developed for real-time flash flood forecasting using the MARINE model and data assimilation techniques. According to prior sensitivity analyses and calibrations, parameters values were determined as constants or initial guess. Then a data assimilation method called the adjoint state method is used to update some of the most sensitive parameters to improve accuracy of discharges predictions. The forecast errors are evaluated as a function of lead time and discussed from an operational point of view. Multiple strategies in term of updatable parameters set, length of time window, parameters bounds and observation threshold used to trigger the assimilation method are discussed regarding accuracy, robustness and real-time feasibility.

  2. NWS tools to forecast river stages in the coastal zones

    Microsoft Academic Search

    David B. Reed; Jeffrey S. Graschel; David M. Welch; David A. Ramirez

    2009-01-01

    The National Weather Service (NWS) is the federal agency with the mandate to provide river and flood forecasts to save lives and property and support the Nation's economy. To accomplish this mission, the NWS provides forecasted river levels five days in the future at over 4,000 locations. The NWS Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center (LMRFC) is responsible for providing forecasts

  3. Storm surge forecasting for operating the Venice Flood Barrier with minimal impact on port activities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cecconi, Giovanni

    2015-04-01

    The operation of the Venice storm barrier, due to enter into operation by the end of 2017 , is particularly demanding in terms of the required accuracy of the forecast of the max water level for the time lead of 3-6 hours. With present sea level and safeguard level established at 1.1 m a.s.l. of 1895 the barrier is expected to be operated 10 times a year to cope with an average of 5 storms with around 15 redirections of the navigation through the locks. The 5 extra closures and the 10 extra interferences with navigation are needed for compensating the present forecast uncertainty of 10 cm in the maximum storm high for the required time lead of three hours, the time needed to stop navigation before the closures of the lagoon inlets. A decision support system based on these rules have been tested along the last four year with satisfactory results in term of reliability easy of operations. The forecast is presently based on a statistical model associated with a deterministic local model; the main source of uncertainty is related to the prediction of the local wind. Due to delays in the completion of Venice local protection till 1.1 m it is expected that the population will urge a reduction of the safeguard level from 1.1m to 0.9m with an exponential increase in the number of closures with greater impact on navigation. The present acceleration in sea level rise will also contribute to the increase in the number of closures. To reduce the impact on port activity, better forecast accuracy is required together with experimenting new operational closures : e.g. activating only the northern barriers. The paper evaluate the problem and the possible solutions in terms of improving storm surge forecast and developing new schemes for partial operation of the barriers for predicted limited floods not requiring complete closures.

  4. Time Series Models Adoptable for Forecasting Nile Floods and Ethiopian Rainfalls.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    El-Fandy, M. G.; Taiel, S. M. M.; Ashour, Z. H.

    1994-01-01

    Long-term rainfall forecasting is used in making economic and agricultural decisions in many countries. It may also be a tool in minimizing the devastation resulting from recurrent droughts. To be able to forecast the total annual rainfall or the levels of seasonal floods, a class of models has first been chosen. The model parameters have then been estimated with an appropriate parameter estimation algorithm. Finally, diagnostic tests have been performed to verify the adequacy of the model. These are the general principles of system identification, which is the most crucial part of the forecasting procedure. In this paper several sets of data have been studied using different statistical procedures. The examined data include a historical 835-year record representing the levels of the seasonal Nile floods in Cairo, Egypt, during the period A.D. 622-1457. These readings were originally carried out by the Arabsto a great degree of accuracy in order to be used in estimating yearly taxes or Zacat (islamic duties). The observations also comprise recent total annual rainfall data over Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) (1907-1984), the total annual discharges of Ethiopian rivers (including the river Sobat discharges at Hillet Doleib, Blue Nile discharge at Roseris, river Dinder, river Rahar, and river Atbara), equatorial lake plateau supply as contributed at Aswan during the period 1912-1982, and the total annual discharges at Aswan during the period 1871-1982. Periodograms have been used to uncover possible peridodicities. Trends of rainfall and discharges of some rivers of east and central Africa have been also estimated.Using the first half of the available record, two autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series models have been identified, one for the levels of the seasonal Nile floods in Cairo, the second to model the annual rainfall over Ethiopia. The time series models have been applied in 1-year-ahead forecasting to the other hall of the available record and give fairly promising results, thus indicating the adequacy of the fitted models.

  5. Distributed precipitation corrections in Alpine areas for a real-time flood forecasting system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herrnegger, Mathew; Senoner, Tobias; Nachtnebel, Hans-Peter

    2014-05-01

    This contribution presents a method for estimating spatial and temporal distributed precipitation correction factors. The approach is applied for a flood forecasting model in the Upper Enns and Upper Mur catchments in the Central Austrian Alps. Precipitation exhibits a large spatio-temporal variability in Alpine areas. Additionally the density of the monitoring network is low and measurements are subjected to major errors. This can lead to significant deficits in stream flow simulations, e.g. for flood forecasting models. Therefore precipitation correction factors are frequently applied. These correction factors are however mostly applied for whole catchments in a lumped manor, neglecting, that the magnitude of precipitation errors are spatially distributed. For the presented study a multiplicative linear correction model is therefore implemented, which enables a distribution of the correction factors as a function of elevation. The applied rainfall-runoff model COSERO is set up with a spatial resolution of 1x1km2. The correction of the rainfall pattern is thereby applied for every grid cell. To account for the local meteorological conditions, the correction model is derived for two elevation zones: (1) Valley floors to 2000 m a.s.l. and (2) above 2000 m a.s.l. to mountain peaks. Measurement errors also depend on the precipitation type, with higher magnitudes in winter months during snow fall. Therefore additionally separate correction factors for winter and summer months are estimated. The parameters for the correction model are estimated for every catchment based on independent station observations and observed and simulated runoff of the conceptual rainfall-runoff model. As driving input the INCA-precipitation fields of the Austrian Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) are used. Due to the mentioned errors, these precipitation fields are corrected according to the described method. The results show a significant improvement of the simulated runoff, not only concerning the long-term water balance and snow melt, but also the simulation of flood peaks.

  6. The 1998 Yangtze Floods: The Use of Short-Term Forecasts in the Context of Seasonal to Interannual Water Resource Management

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Qian Ye; Michael H. Glantz

    2005-01-01

    This paper reviews changes in the use of short-term climate information for water management in China after the 1998 Great Flood in the Yangtze River basin. This devastating flood is now believed to have been caused mainly by the 1997–98 El Niño event. Although the short-term climate forecasts and weather forecasts are considered to be useful in planning for flood

  7. A flood routing Muskingum type simulation and forecasting model based on level data alone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Franchini, Marco; Lamberti, Paolo

    1994-07-01

    While the use of remote hydrometers for measuring the level in water courses is both economical and widespread, the same cannot be said for cross section and channel profile measurements and, even less, for rating curves at the measuring cross sections, all of which are more often than not incomplete, out of date, and unreliable. The mass of data involved in level measurements alone induces a degree of perplexity in those who try to use them, for example, for flood event simulations or the construction of forecasting models which are not purely statistical. This paper proposes a method which uses recorded level data alone to construct a simulation model and a forecasting model, both of them characterized by an extremely simple structure that can be used on any pocket calculator. These models, referring to a river reach bounded by two measuring sections, furnish the downstream levels, where the upstream levels are known, and the downstream level at time t + ?t*, where the upstream and downstream levels are known at time t, respectively. The numerical applications performed show that while the simulation model is somewhat penalized by the simplifications adopted, giving not consistently satisfactory results on validation, the forecasting model generated good results in all the cases examined and seems reliable.

  8. Forecasts, warnings and social response to flash floods: Is temporality a major problem? The case of the September 2005 flash flood in the Gard region (France)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lutoff, C.; Anquetin, S.; Ruin, I.; Chassande, M.

    2009-09-01

    Flash floods are complex phenomena. The atmospheric and hydrological generating mechanisms of the phenomenon are not completely understood, leading to highly uncertain forecasts of and warnings for these events. On the other hand warning and crisis response to such violent and fast events is not a straightforward process. In both the social and physical aspect of the problem, space and time scales involved either in hydrometeorology, human behavior and social organizations sciences are of crucial importance. Forecasters, emergency managers, mayors, school superintendents, school transportation managers, first responders and road users, all have different time and space frameworks that they use to take emergency decision for themselves, their group or community. The integration of space and time scales of both the phenomenon and human activities is therefore a necessity to better deal with questions as forecasting lead-time and warning efficiency. The aim of this oral presentation is to focus on the spatio-temporal aspects of flash floods to improve our understanding of the event dynamic compared to the different scales of the social response. The authors propose a framework of analysis to compare the temporality of: i) the forecasts (from Méteo-France and from EFAS (Thielen et al., 2008)), ii) the meteorological and hydrological parameters, iii) the social response at different scales. The September 2005 event is particularly interesting for such analysis. The rainfall episode lasted nearly a week with two distinct phases separated by low intensity precipitations. Therefore the Méteo-France vigilance bulletin where somehow disconnected from the local flood’s impacts. Our analysis focuses on the timings of different types of local response, including the delicate issue of school transportation, in regard to the forecasts and the actual dynamic of the event.

  9. Combination of different types of ensembles for the adaptive simulation of probabilistic flood forecasts: hindcasts for the Mulde 2002 extreme event

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dietrich, J.; Trepte, S.; Wang, Y.; Schumann, A. H.; Voß, F.; Hesser, F. B.; Denhard, M.

    2008-03-01

    Flood forecasts are essential to issue reliable flood warnings and to initiate flood control measures on time. The accuracy and the lead time of the predictions for head waters primarily depend on the meteorological forecasts. Ensemble forecasts are a means of framing the uncertainty of the potential future development of the hydro-meteorological situation. This contribution presents a flood management strategy based on probabilistic hydrological forecasts driven by operational meteorological ensemble prediction systems. The meteorological ensemble forecasts are transformed into discharge ensemble forecasts by a rainfall-runoff model. Exceedance probabilities for critical discharge values and probabilistic maps of inundation areas can be computed and presented to decision makers. These results can support decision makers in issuing flood alerts. The flood management system integrates ensemble forecasts with different spatial resolution and different lead times. The hydrological models are controlled in an adaptive way, mainly depending on the lead time of the forecast, the expected magnitude of the flood event and the availability of measured data. The aforementioned flood forecast techniques have been applied to a case study. The Mulde River Basin (South-Eastern Germany, Czech Republic) has often been affected by severe flood events including local flash floods. Hindcasts for the large scale extreme flood in August 2002 have been computed using meteorological predictions from both the COSMO-LEPS ensemble prediction system and the deterministic COSMO-DE local model. The temporal evolution of a) the meteorological forecast uncertainty and b) the probability of exceeding flood alert levels is discussed. Results from the hindcast simulations demonstrate, that the systems would have predicted a high probability of an extreme flood event, if they would already have been operational in 2002. COSMO-LEPS showed a reasonably good performance within a lead time of 2 to 3 days. Some of the deterministic very short-range forecast initializations were able to predict the dynamics of the event, but others underpredicted rainfall. Thus a lagged average ensemble approach is suggested. The findings from the case study support the often proposed added value of ensemble forecasts and their probabilistic evaluation for flood management decisions.

  10. Taking into account hydrological modelling uncertainty in Mediterranean flash-floods forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Edouard, Simon; Béatrice, Vincendon; Véronique, Ducrocq

    2015-04-01

    Title : Taking into account hydrological modelling uncertainty in Mediterranean flash-floods forecasting Authors : Simon EDOUARD*, Béatrice VINCENDON*, Véronique Ducrocq* * : GAME/CNRM(Météo-France, CNRS)Toulouse,France Mediterranean intense weather events often lead to devastating flash-floods (FF). Increasing the lead time of FF forecasts would permit to better anticipate their catastrophic consequences. These events are one part of Mediterranean hydrological cycle. HyMeX (HYdrological cycle in the Mediterranean EXperiment) aims at a better understanding and quantification of the hydrological cycle and related processes in the Mediterranean. In order to get a lot of data, measurement campaigns were conducted. The first special observing period (SOP1) of these campaigns, served as a test-bed for a real-time hydrological ensemble prediction system (HEPS) dedicated to FF forecasting. It produced an ensemble of quantitative discharge forecasts (QDF) using the ISBA-TOP system. ISBATOP is a coupling between the surface scheme ISBA and a version of TOPMODEL dedicated to Mediterranean fast responding rivers. ISBA-TOP was driven with several quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) ensembles based on AROME atmospheric convection-permitting model. This permitted to take into account the uncertainty that affects QPF and that propagates up to the QDF. This uncertainty is major for discharge forecasting especially in the case of Mediterranean flash-floods. But other sources of uncertainty need to be sampled in HEPS systems. One of them is inherent to the hydrological modelling. The ISBA-TOP coupled system has been improved since the initial version, that was used for instance during Hymex SOP1. The initial ISBA-TOP consisted into coupling a TOPMODEL approach with ISBA-3L, which represented the soil stratification with 3 layers. The new version consists into coupling the same TOPMODEL approach with a version of ISBA where more than ten layers describe the soil vertical stratification, that is ISBA-DF. The use of ISBA-DF into ISBA-TOP coupling permits to get rid of the calibration issues but also to change the pedometer functions used to compute the main hydrological parameters (saturated water content, saturated hydraulic conductivity,...). The first step of this work is thus to assess the impact of these new options on discharge simulations. This was carried out through an academic case to reduce the degrees of freedom of the system. Each parameter is then tested one after another to determine which has the greatest impact on discharge simulations. Finally, the conclusions of the sensitivity analyses are cheeked in realistic configurations. The following step is to vary initial conditions which is another part of modelling uncertainty. The most important parameter tested is soil moisture. The last step will be to slightly vary the ISBA-TOP sensitive parameters so as to produce an QDF ensemble from a given single rainfall forcing field. Later on, this will be applied to ISBA-TOP driven by QPF ensembles. This should improve the HEPS performances.

  11. Assimilation of soil moisture observations from remote sensing in operational flood forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mazzoleni, Maurizio; Alfonso, Leonardo; Ferri, Michele; Monego, Martina; Norbiato, Daniele; Solomatine, Dimitri P.

    2014-05-01

    Flooding and the resulting damages occurred in Europe in recent decades showed that the need of a preparation to critical events can be considered as a key factor in reducing their impact on society. It has been shown that early warning systems may reduce significantly the direct and indirect damages and costs of a flood impact. In order to improve the forecasting systems, data assimilation methods were proposed in the last years to integrate real-time observations into hydrological and hydrodynamic models. The aim of this work is to assimilate observations of soil moisture into an operational flood forecasting system in Italy in order to evaluate the effect on the water level along the main river channel. The methodology is applied in the Bacchiglione catchment, located in the North of Italy, having a drainage area of about 1400 km2, length of main reach of 118km and average discharge of 30m3/s at Padova. In order to represent this system, the Bacchiglione basin was considered as a set of different sub-basins characterized by its own hydrologic response and connected each other mainly by propagation phenomena. A 1D hydrodynamic model was then used to estimate water level along the main channel. The assimilation of the soil moisture observations was carried out using a variant of the Kalman filter-based technique. The main idea of this study was to update the model state (the soil water capacity) as response of the distributed information of soil moisture, and then estimate the flow hydrograph at the basin outlet. As a basis we used the approach by Brocca et al.(2012), using a different model structure and with adaption allowing for real-time use. The results of this work show how the added value of soil moisture into the hydrological model can improve the forecast of the flow hydrograph and the consequent water level in the main channel. This study is part of the FP7 European Project WeSenseIt. [1] Brocca, L., Moramarco, T., Melone, F., Wagner, W., Hasenauer, S., and Hahn, S. (2012) Assimilation of Surface- and Root-Zone ASCAT Soil Moisture Products Into Rainfall-Runoff Modeling, IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, 50(7), 2542-2555

  12. Forecasting of Storm-Surge Floods Using ADCIRC and Optimized DEMs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Valenti, Elizabeth; Fitzpatrick, Patrick

    2006-01-01

    Increasing the accuracy of storm-surge flood forecasts is essential for improving preparedness for hurricanes and other severe storms and, in particular, for optimizing evacuation scenarios. An interactive database, developed by WorldWinds, Inc., contains atlases of storm-surge flood levels for the Louisiana/Mississippi gulf coast region. These atlases were developed to improve forecasting of flooding along the coastline and estuaries and in adjacent inland areas. Storm-surge heights depend on a complex interaction of several factors, including: storm size, central minimum pressure, forward speed of motion, bottom topography near the point of landfall, astronomical tides, and, most importantly, maximum wind speed. The information in the atlases was generated in over 100 computational simulations, partly by use of a parallel-processing version of the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model. ADCIRC is a nonlinear computational model of hydrodynamics, developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the US Navy, as a family of two- and three-dimensional finite-element-based codes. It affords a capability for simulating tidal circulation and storm-surge propagation over very large computational domains, while simultaneously providing high-resolution output in areas of complex shoreline and bathymetry. The ADCIRC finite-element grid for this project covered the Gulf of Mexico and contiguous basins, extending into the deep Atlantic Ocean with progressively higher resolution approaching the study area. The advantage of using ADCIRC over other storm-surge models, such as SLOSH, is that input conditions can include all or part of wind stress, tides, wave stress, and river discharge, which serve to make the model output more accurate. To keep the computational load manageable, this work was conducted using only the wind stress, calculated by using historical data from Hurricane Camille, as the input condition for the model. Hurricane storm-surge simulations were performed on an eight-node Linux computer cluster. Each node contained dual 2-GHz processors, 2GB of memory, and a 40GB hard drive. The digital elevation model (DEM) for this region was specified using a combination of Navy data (over water), NOAA data (for the coastline), and optimized Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data (over land). This high-resolution topographical data of the Mississippi coastal region provided the ADCIRC model with improved input with which to calculate improved storm-surge forecasts.

  13. Efficiency of a real time flood forecasting system in the Alps and in the Apennines: deterministic versus ensemble predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grossi, G.

    2009-04-01

    Real time hydrological forecasting is still a challenging task for most of the Italian territory, especially in mountain areas where both the topography and the meteorological forcing are affected by a strong spatial variability. Nevertheless there is an increasing request to provide some clues for the development of efficient real time flood forecasting systems, for warning population as well as for water management purposes. In this perspective the efficiency of a real time forecasting system needs to be investigated, with particular care to the uncertainty of the provided prediction and to how this prediction will be handled by water resources managers and land protection services. To this aim a real time flood forecasting system using both deterministic and ensemble meteorological predictions has been implemented at University of Brescia and applied to an Alpine area (the Toce River - Piemonte Region) and to an Apennine area (the Taro River - Emilia Romagna Region). The Map D- Phase experiment (autumn 2007) was a good test for the implemented system: daily rainfall fields provided by high resolution deterministic limited area meteorological models and esemble rainfall predictions provided by coarser resolution meteorological models could be used to force a hydrological model and produce either a single deterministic or an esemble of flood forecats. Namely only minor flood events occurred in the Alpine area in autumn 2007, while one major flood event affected the Taro river at the end of November 2007. Focusing on this major event the potentials of the forecasting system was tested and evaluated with reference also to the geographical and climatic characteristics of the investigated area.

  14. Neural network modeling and geochemical water analyses to understand and forecast karst and non-karst part of flash floods (case study on the Lez river, Southern France)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Darras, T.; Raynaud, F.; Borrell Estupina, V.; Kong-A-Siou, L.; Van-Exter, S.; Vayssade, B.; Johannet, A.; Pistre, S.

    2015-06-01

    Flash floods forecasting in the Mediterranean area is a major economic and societal issue. Specifically, considering karst basins, heterogeneous structure and nonlinear behaviour make the flash flood forecasting very difficult. In this context, this work proposes a methodology to estimate the contribution from karst and non-karst components using toolbox including neural networks and various hydrological methods. The chosen case study is the flash flooding of the Lez river, known for his complex behaviour and huge stakes, at the gauge station of Lavallette, upstream of Montpellier (400 000 inhabitants). After application of the proposed methodology, discharge at the station of Lavallette is spited between hydrographs of karst flood and surface runoff, for the two events of 2014. Generalizing the method to future events will allow designing forecasting models specifically for karst and surface flood increasing by this way the reliability of the forecasts.

  15. A hydro-meteorological ensemble prediction system for real-time flood forecasting purposes in the Milano area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ravazzani, Giovanni; Amengual, Arnau; Ceppi, Alessandro; Romero, Romualdo; Homar, Victor; Mancini, Marco

    2015-04-01

    Analysis of forecasting strategies that can provide a tangible basis for flood early warning procedures and mitigation measures over the Western Mediterranean region is one of the fundamental motivations of the European HyMeX programme. Here, we examine a set of hydro-meteorological episodes that affected the Milano urban area for which the complex flood protection system of the city did not completely succeed before the occurred flash-floods. Indeed, flood damages have exponentially increased in the area during the last 60 years, due to industrial and urban developments. Thus, the improvement of the Milano flood control system needs a synergism between structural and non-structural approaches. The flood forecasting system tested in this work comprises the Flash-flood Event-based Spatially distributed rainfall-runoff Transformation, including Water Balance (FEST-WB) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models, in order to provide a hydrological ensemble prediction system (HEPS). Deterministic and probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) have been provided by WRF model in a set of 48-hours experiments. HEPS has been generated by combining different physical parameterizations (i.e. cloud microphysics, moist convection and boundary-layer schemes) of the WRF model in order to better encompass the atmospheric processes leading to high precipitation amounts. We have been able to test the value of a probabilistic versus a deterministic framework when driving Quantitative Discharge Forecasts (QDFs). Results highlight (i) the benefits of using a high-resolution HEPS in conveying uncertainties for this complex orographic area and (ii) a better simulation of the most of extreme precipitation events, potentially enabling valuable probabilistic QDFs. Hence, the HEPS copes with the significant deficiencies found in the deterministic QPFs. These shortcomings would prevent to correctly forecast the location and timing of high precipitation rates and total amounts at the catchment scale, thus impacting heavily the deterministic QDFs. In contrast, early warnings would have been possible within a HEPS context for the Milano area, proving the suitability of such system for civil protection purposes.

  16. Improving National Air Quality Forecasts with Satellite Aerosol Observations.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Al-Saadi, Jassim; Szykman, James; Pierce, R. Bradley; Kittaka, Chieko; Neil, Doreen; Chu, D. Allen; Remer, Lorraine; Gumley, Liam; Prins, Elaine; Weinstock, Lewis; MacDonald, Clinton; Wayland, Richard; Dimmick, Fred; Fishman, Jack

    2005-09-01

    Accurate air quality forecasts can allow for mitigation of the health risks associated with high levels of air pollution. During September 2003, a team of NASA, NOAA, and EPA researchers demonstrated a prototype tool for improving fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air quality forecasts using satellite aerosol observations. Daily forecast products were generated from a near-real-time fusion of multiple input data products, including aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)/ Earth Observing System (EOS) instrument on the NASA Terra satellite, PM2.5 concentration from over 300 state/local/national surface monitoring stations, meteorological fields from the NOAA/NCEP Eta Model, and fire locations from the NOAA/National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Wildfire Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm (WF_ABBA) product. The products were disseminated via a Web interface to a small group of forecasters representing state and local air management agencies and the EPA. The MODIS data improved forecaster knowledge of synoptic-scale air pollution events, particularly over oceans and in regions devoid of surface monitors. Forecast trajectories initialized in regions of high AOD offered guidance for identifying potential episodes of poor air quality. The capability of this approach was illustrated with a case study showing that aerosol resulting from wildfires in the northwestern United States and southwestern Canada is transported across the continent to influence air quality in the Great Lakes region a few days later. The timing of this demonstration was selected to help improve the accuracy of the EPA's AIRNow (www.epa.gov/airnow/) air quality index next-day PM2.5 forecast, which began on 1 October 2003. Based on the positive response from air quality managers and forecasters, this prototype was expanded and transitioned to an operational provider during the summer of 2004.


  17. Sub-Optimal Ensemble Filters and distributed hydrologic modeling: a new challenge in flood forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baroncini, F.; Castelli, F.

    2009-09-01

    Data assimilation techniques based on Ensemble Filtering are widely regarded as the best approach in solving forecast and calibration problems in geophysics models. Often the implementation of statistical optimal techniques, like the Ensemble Kalman Filter, is unfeasible because of the large amount of replicas used in each time step of the model for updating the error covariance matrix. Therefore the sub optimal approach seems to be a more suitable choice. Various sub-optimal techniques were tested in atmospheric and oceanographic models, some of them are based on the detection of a "null space". Distributed Hydrologic Models differ from the other geo-fluid-dynamics models in some fundamental aspects that make complex to understanding the relative efficiency of the different suboptimal techniques. Those aspects include threshold processes , preferential trajectories for convection and diffusion, low observability of the main state variables and high parametric uncertainty. This research study is focused on such topics and explore them through some numerical experiments on an continuous hydrologic model, MOBIDIC. This model include both water mass balance and surface energy balance, so it's able to assimilate a wide variety of datasets like traditional hydrometric "on ground" measurements or land surface temperature retrieval from satellite. The experiments that we present concern to a basin of 700 kmq in center Italy, with hourly dataset on a 8 months period that includes both drought and flood events, in this first set of experiment we worked on a low spatial resolution version of the hydrologic model (3.2 km). A new Kalman Filter based algorithm is presented : this filter try to address the main challenges of hydrological modeling uncertainty. The proposed filter use in Forecast step a COFFEE (Complementary Orthogonal Filter For Efficient Ensembles) approach with a propagation of both deterministic and stochastic ensembles to improve robustness and convergence proprieties. After, through a P.O.D. Reduction from control theory, we compute a Reduced Order Forecast Covariance matrix . In analysis step the filter uses a LE (Local Ensemble) Kalman Filter approach. We modify the LE Kalman Filter assimilation scheme and we adapt its formulation to the P.O.D. Reduced sub-space propagated in forecast step. Through this, assimilation of observations is made only in the maximum covariance directions of the model error. Then the efficiency of this technique is weighed in term of hydrometric forecast accuracy in a preliminary convergence test of a synthetic rainfall event toward a real rain fall event.

  18. Application of generic data assimilation tools (DATools) for flood forecasting purposes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weerts, Albrecht H.; El Serafy, Ghada Y.; Hummel, Stef; Dhondia, Juzer; Gerritsen, Herman

    2010-04-01

    This paper describes the generic data assimilation software tool DATools. DATools can be used as standalone or within Delft-FEWS. DATools is completely configurable via XML configuration. DATools is built up of three components: a Filter, a Stochastic Modeler, and a Stochastic Observer. Configuration of all these three parts is explained in detail. At the moment two data assimilation filters are available within DATools: (1) ensemble Kalman Filter and (2) the residual resampling filter. Results of a twin experiment with both filters with DATtools show similar results as a previous study performed with custom implementations. It is also shown that DATools can function inside Delft-FEWS software used for operational flood forecasting. Applying EnKF to a 1D hydrodynamic SOBEK-RE model of the river Rhine within the operational system FEWS-NL Rhine and Meuse improves the forecasts at the Lobith gaugin station and downstream of Lobith. DATools has been coupled with the HBV-96, SOBEK, and REW models and will be coupled to MODFLOW, Delft-3D, and the geotechnical model MSetlle in the near future. Uncertainty analysis with this tool is also possible and calibration will be added later this year.

  19. A Research on Development of The Multi-mode Flood Forecasting System Version Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shen, J.-C.; Chang, C. H.; Lien, H. C.; Wu, S. J.; Horng, M. J.

    2009-04-01

    With the global economy and technological development, the degree of urbanization and population density relative to raise. At the same time, a natural buffer space and resources year after year, the situation has been weakened, not only lead to potential environmental disasters, more and more serious, disaster caused by the economy, loss of natural environment at all levels has been expanded. In view of this, the active participation of all countries in the world cross-sectoral integration of disaster prevention technology research and development, in addition, the specialized field of disaster prevention technology, science and technology development, network integration technology, high-speed data transmission and information to support the establishment of mechanisms for disaster management The decision-making and cross-border global disaster information network building and other related technologies, has become the international anti-disaster science and technology development trends, this trend. Naturally a few years in Taiwan, people's lives and property losses caused by many problems related to natural disaster prevention and disaster prevention and the establishment of applications has become a very important. For FEWS_Taiwan, flood warning system developed by the Delft Hydraulics and introduced the Water Resources Agency (WRA), it provides those functionalities for users to modify contents to add the basins, regions, data sources, models and etc. Despite this advantage, version differences due to different users or different teams yet bring about the difficulties on synchronization and integration.At the same time in different research teams will also add different modes of meteorological and hydrological data. From the government perspective of WRA, the need to plan standard operation procedures for system integration demands that the effort for version control due to version differences must be cost down or yet canceled out. As for FEWS_Taiwan, this paper proposed the feasible avenues and solutions to smoothly integrate different configurations from different teams. In the current system has been completed by 20 of Taiwan's main rivers in the building of the basic structure of the flood forecasting. And regular updating of the relevant parameters, using the new survey results, in order to have a better flood forecasting results.

  20. 44 CFR Appendix B to Part 62 - National Flood Insurance Program

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ...2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false National Flood Insurance Program B Appendix B to Part...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program SALE OF INSURANCE AND...B Appendix B to Part 62—National Flood Insurance Program A Plan to...

  1. Floods

    MedlinePLUS

    ... development can change the natural drainage and create brand new flood risks. That's because new buildings, parking ... the NFIP visit www.FloodSmart.gov . Flood Safety Awareness Week is March 16 to 22, find out ...

  2. GEO-SPATIAL TECHNOLOGY USE TO MODEL FLOODING POTENTIAL IN CHESTATEE RIVER WATERSHED

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Sarah Skelton; Sudhanshu S Panda

    2009-01-01

    Since 2002, the National Weather Service uses Flash Flood Monitoring Program (FFMP) and Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) to predict flash flood events. However, these programs contain several deficiencies for several forecast areas in the nation. Developing a GIS based model that incorporates basin physiographic characteristics will allow the hydrologist to better predict flash flood events. In this study, we have

  3. Towards a better knowledge of flash flood forecasting at the Three Gorges Region: Progress over the past decade and challenges ahead

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Zhe; Yang, Dawen; Yang, Hanbo; Wu, Tianjiao; Xu, Jijun; Gao, Bing; Xu, Tao

    2015-04-01

    The study area, the Three Gorges Region (TGR), plays a critical role in predicting the floods drained into the Three Gorges Reservoir, as reported local floods often exceed 10000m3/s during rainstorm events and trigger fast as well as significant impacts on the Three Gorges Reservoir's regulation. Meanwhile, it is one of typical mountainous areas in China, which is located in the transition zone between two monsoon systems: the East Asian monsoon and the South Asian (Indian) monsoon. This climatic feature, combined with local irregular terrains, has shaped complicated rainfall-runoff regimes in this focal region. However, due to the lack of high-resolution hydrometeorological data and physically-based hydrologic modeling framework, there was little knowledge about rainfall variability and flood pattern in this historically ungauged region, which posed great uncertainties to flash flood forecasting in the past. The present study summarize latest progresses of regional flash floods monitoring and prediction, including installation of a ground-based Hydrometeorological Observation Network (TGR-HMON), application of a regional geomorphology-based hydrological model (TGR-GBHM), development of an integrated forecasting and modeling system (TGR-INFORMS), and evaluation of quantitative precipitation estimations (QPE) and quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) products in TGR flash flood forecasting. With these continuing efforts to improve the forecasting performance of flash floods in TGR, we have addressed several critical issues: (1) Current observation network is still insufficient to capture localized rainstorms, and weather radar provides valuable information to forecast flash floods induced by localized rainstorms, although current radar QPE products can be improved substantially in future; (2) Long-term evaluation shows that the geomorphology-based distributed hydrologic model (GBHM) is able to simulate flash flooding processes reasonably, while model performance will decline at hourly scale with larger uncertainties. However, model comparison suggests that this physically-based distributed model (GBHM), compared with a traditional lumped model (Xin'anjiang model), shows more robust performance and larger transferability for prediction in those ungauged basins in TGR; (3) Operational test of our integrated forecasting system (TRG-INFORMS) shows that it works reasonably to simulate the flood routing in Three Gorges reservoir, indicating the accuracy of simulation of total floods generated at region scale; (4) Current operational QPF is too coarse to provide valuable information even for flood forecasting of whole TGR, thus, downscaling and high-resolution QPF are necessary to unravel the potentials of weather forecasting. Finally, according to these results, we also discuss about some possible solutions with high priority for future advanced forecasting scheme of local flash floods in TGR.

  4. Ultraviolet index forecasts issued by the National Weather Service

    Microsoft Academic Search

    C. S. Long; A. J. Miller; H. T. Lee

    1996-01-01

    The National Weather Service (NWS), in collaboration with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), now issues an Ultraviolet (UV) index forecast. The UV index (UVI) is a mechanism by which the American public is forewarned of the next day`s noontime intensity of UV radiation at locations within the United States. The EPA`s role in this effort is to alert the public

  5. Ultraviolet Index Forecasts Issued by the National Weather Service

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Craig S. Long; Alvin J. Miller; Hai-Tien Lee; Jeannette D. Wild; Richard C. Przywarty; Drusilia Hufford

    1996-01-01

    The National Weather Service (NWS), in collaboration with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), now issues an Ultraviolet (UV) index forecast. The UV index (UVI) is a mechanism by which the American public is forewarned of the next day's noontime intensity of UV radiation at locations within the United States. The EPA's role in this effort is to alert the public

  6. Flash Flood Early Warning System Reference Guide

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    COMET

    2011-10-18

    The Flash Flood Warning System Reference Guide is intended to promote the implementation of flash flood early warning systems based upon proven and effective methods already in use in flash-flood prone nations around the world. Both governmental and non-governmental decision makers can use it to better understand flash floods and the elements that constitute a robust, end-to-end flash flood early warning system. The guide includes chapters on Flash Flood Science, Flash Flood Forecasting Methods, Monitoring Networks, Technology Infrastructure, Warning Dissemination and Notification, and Community-based Disaster Management, and offers several examples of warning systems.

  7. Verification of Hydrologic and Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasts in the National Weather Service

    Microsoft Academic Search

    J. Demargne; J. D. Brown; L. Wu; Y. Liu; D. Seo

    2008-01-01

    In this presentation, we describe recent progress in verifying streamflow, precipitation and temperature ensemble forecasts in the NOAA National Weather Service (NWS). The NWS Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD) has been developing an experimental hydrologic ensemble forecasting system to produce reliable hydrometeorological and hydrologic ensemble forecasts that account for atmospheric and hydrologic uncertainties. To validate and enhance the ensemble forecasting

  8. Flooding

    MedlinePLUS

    ... con monóxido de carbono. Limit contact with flood water. Flood water may have high levels of raw ... from Centers for Disease Control Alert: Boil Drinking Water If your water may not be safe, bring ...

  9. Uncertainty propagation for flood forecasting in the Alps: different views and impacts from MAP D-PHASE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rotach, M. W.; Arpagaus, M.; Dorninger, M.; Hegg, C.; Montani, A.; Ranzi, R.

    2012-08-01

    D-PHASE was a Forecast Demonstration Project of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) related to the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP). Its goal was to demonstrate the reliability and quality of operational forecasting of orographically influenced (determined) precipitation in the Alps and its consequences on the distribution of run-off characteristics. A special focus was, of course, on heavy-precipitation events. The D-PHASE Operations Period (DOP) ran from June to November~2007, during which an end-to-end forecasting system was operated covering many individual catchments in the Alps, with their water authorities, civil protection organizations or other end users. The forecasting system's core piece was a Visualization Platform where precipitation and flood warnings from some 30 atmospheric and 7 hydrological models (both deterministic and probabilistic) and corresponding model fields were displayed in uniform and comparable formats. Also, meteograms, nowcasting information and end user communication was made available to all the forecasters, users and end users. D-PHASE information was assessed and used by some 50 different groups ranging from atmospheric forecasters to civil protection authorities or water management bodies. In the present contribution, D-PHASE is briefly presented along with its outstanding scientific results and, in particular, the lessons learnt with respect to uncertainty propagation. A focus is thereby on the transfer of ensemble prediction information into the hydrological community and its use with respect to other aspects of societal impact. Objective verification of forecast quality is contrasted to subjective quality assessments during the project (end user workshops, questionnaires) and some general conclusions concerning forecast demonstration projects are drawn.

  10. A Multiseason Climate Forecast System at the National Meteorological Center

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Ming Ji; Arun Kumar; Ants Leetmaa

    1994-01-01

    The Coupled Model Project was established at the National Meteorological Center(NMC)in January l991 to develop a multiseason forecast system based on coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models. This provided a focus to combine expertise in near real-time ocean modeling and analyses situated in the Climate Analysis Center (CAC) with expertise in atmospheric modeling and data assimilation in the Development Division.

  11. NatioNal aNd Global Forecasts West VirGiNia ProFiles aNd Forecasts

    E-print Network

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    · NatioNal aNd Global Forecasts · West VirGiNia ProFiles aNd Forecasts · eNerGy · Healt Department of Revenue Jeff Herholdt Director, West Virginia Division of Energy Tom Jones President & CEO 17 Employment 17 Income 17 Population 17 Energy 17 Healthcare 20 Wholesale and Retail Trade 20

  12. Skill Assessment and Benefits on Applying the New Weather Research and Forecast Model to National Weather Service Forecast Operations

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Peter A. Bogenschutz

    2004-01-01

    Under the auspices of a nationwide effort led by NOAA, known as the Coastal Storms Initiative (CSI), the new Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) mesoscale model has been installed at the Jacksonville, FL (JAX) National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Office (WFO). The purpose of the CSI project is to lessen the impacts of storms on coastal communities. This research

  13. A two-stage method of quantitative flood risk analysis for reservoir real-time operation using ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, P.

    2013-12-01

    Quantitative analysis of the risk for reservoir real-time operation is a hard task owing to the difficulty of accurate description of inflow uncertainties. The ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts directly depict the inflows not only the marginal distributions but also their persistence via scenarios. This motivates us to analyze the reservoir real-time operating risk with ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts as inputs. A method is developed by using the forecast horizon point to divide the future time into two stages, the forecast lead-time and the unpredicted time. The risk within the forecast lead-time is computed based on counting the failure number of forecast scenarios, and the risk in the unpredicted time is estimated using reservoir routing with the design floods and the reservoir water levels of forecast horizon point. As a result, a two-stage risk analysis method is set up to quantify the entire flood risks by defining the ratio of the number of scenarios that excessive the critical value to the total number of scenarios. The China's Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) is selected as a case study, where the parameter and precipitation uncertainties are implemented to produce ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts. The Bayesian inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, is used to account for the parameter uncertainty. Two reservoir operation schemes, the real operated and scenario optimization, are evaluated for the flood risks and hydropower profits analysis. With the 2010 flood, it is found that the improvement of the hydrologic forecast accuracy is unnecessary to decrease the reservoir real-time operation risk, and most risks are from the forecast lead-time. It is therefore valuable to decrease the avarice of ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts with less bias for a reservoir operational purpose.

  14. Flood Proofing This report was prepared for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' National

    E-print Network

    US Army Corps of Engineers

    Local Flood Proofing Programs June 199" #12;This report was prepared for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' National Flood Proofing Committee by French & Associates, Ltd., 153 Nanti, Park Forest, Illinois who have designed or implemented flood proofing financial assistance programs. The cost data

  15. Flood

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    The Flood site is an experiment with a stream table to see what happens during a flood. It was originally a joint project between a 6th grade class and the Bureau of Economic Geography. There are explanations and photographs of the experimental set up and of students and their observation of rivers forming and the creation of a flood. There is also a worksheet for experimental notes and a sheet containing the experimental method and instructions.

  16. Cross-institutional Flood Forecasting in Regional Water Systems;Innovative application of Delft-FEWS in The Netherlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Heeringen, Klaas-Jan; Douben, Klaas-Jan; van de Wouw, Mark; IJpelaar, Ruben; van Loenen, Arnejan

    2015-04-01

    The regional water system in the North-Brabant province in The Netherlands is (operationally) managed by four different Water Authorities: Rijkswaterstaat Southern-Netherlands, and the three Regional Water Authorities (RWA's) Aa & Maas, De Dommel and Brabantse Delta. The water systems basically consist of mid-sized (navigable) canals, semi-natural brook valleys in mildly sloping sandy soils, and man-made watercourses in clayey polder areas. The management areas of the De Dommel and Brabantse Delta RWA's are bordering Belgium over a total length of approx. 185 km, and are prone to transboundary flood flows. The current project 'Dynamic Water Management' intends to improve the mutual cooperation and communication between the RWA's and Rijkswaterstaat during periods of both high and low water stages. The project deals with governance issues such as water agreements and water systems analyses. A powerful product of the project is a DSS for flood forecasting ('DSS Brabant'). One of the main benefits of cooperation between the RWA's and Rijkswaterstaat is to enable assistance during peak flows and flood events and to try to optimise operational water systems management by deploying drainage and storage facilities by using the connecting (navigable) canals. A set of hydraulic structures like pumps, weirs and sluices facilitate the control and routing of the water flows. Especially during peak flow and flood events, these canals allow to deviate excess flow to neighbours who suffer less from flooding. During regular conditions the water systems are fully independent, but during floods connections are made by using the canal system. The heart of DSS Brabant consists of a Delft-FEWS application, containing several RTC (1st) and hydrodynamic Sobek (2nd order) models FEWS is receiving a variety of data on hourly or six-hourly basis, consisting of measured and forecasted meteorological input (radar-precipitation/HIRLAM, evaporation and wind), water levels and discharges at (transboundary) model boundary locations. Three RTC models, which are running continuously, are fed with the output of conceptual rainfall-runoff models to simulate water level, discharge and weir height forecasts. These RTC models simulate a five days period within a few minutes. In addition, an ECWMF ensemble of 50 members runs each 12 hours to estimate the reliability and uncertainties of forecasted water levels and discharges. The FEWS application in DSS Brabant also contains three additional RTC (beta) models that optimise the (penalty based) settings of weirs and gates, and the deployment of water retention areas. Four different hydrodynamic Sobek models are used for routing purposes and more detailed overland flow forecasts on various 'key' locations. These models run standard on a six hourly basis, but can also be used manually to simulate the impacts of the various operational measures. These 2nd order model runs are intended to run within one hour.

  17. Near-real-time simulation and internet-based delivery of forecast-flood inundation maps using two-dimensional hydraulic modeling--A pilot study for the Snoqualmie River, Washington

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jones, Joseph L.; Fulford, Janice M.; Voss, Frank D.

    2002-01-01

    A system of numerical hydraulic modeling, geographic information system processing, and Internet map serving, supported by new data sources and application automation, was developed that generates inundation maps for forecast floods in near real time and makes them available through the Internet. Forecasts for flooding are generated by the National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Center (RFC); these forecasts are retrieved automatically by the system and prepared for input to a hydraulic model. The model, TrimR2D, is a new, robust, two-dimensional model capable of simulating wide varieties of discharge hydrographs and relatively long stream reaches. TrimR2D was calibrated for a 28-kilometer reach of the Snoqualmie River in Washington State, and is used to estimate flood extent, depth, arrival time, and peak time for the RFC forecast. The results of the model are processed automatically by a Geographic Information System (GIS) into maps of flood extent, depth, and arrival and peak times. These maps subsequently are processed into formats acceptable by an Internet map server (IMS). The IMS application is a user-friendly interface to access the maps over the Internet; it allows users to select what information they wish to see presented and allows the authors to define scale-dependent availability of map layers and their symbology (appearance of map features). For example, the IMS presents a background of a digital USGS 1:100,000-scale quadrangle at smaller scales, and automatically switches to an ortho-rectified aerial photograph (a digital photograph that has camera angle and tilt distortions removed) at larger scales so viewers can see ground features that help them identify their area of interest more effectively. For the user, the option exists to select either background at any scale. Similar options are provided for both the map creator and the viewer for the various flood maps. This combination of a robust model, emerging IMS software, and application interface programming should allow the technology developed in the pilot study to be applied to other river systems where NWS forecasts are provided routinely.

  18. Verification of Experimental Hydrometeorological and Hydrological Ensemble Forecasts in the U.S. National Weather Service

    Microsoft Academic Search

    J. Demargne; S. Cong; L. Wu; D. Seo

    2006-01-01

    An ensemble preprocessor is being developed by the Office of Hydrological Development (OHD) of the National Weather Service (NWS) to produce reliable short-term hydro-meteorological (precipitation and temperature) ensemble forecasts from the corresponding single-value forecasts. The hydro-meteorological ensemble forecasts from the preprocessor are ingested to the NWS Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) system to produce probabilistic hydrological forecasts that would reflect the

  19. Verification of National Weather Service Hydrologic Forecasts for the Upper Mississippi River Basin for 2006-2008

    Microsoft Academic Search

    K. J. Franz; M. Deweese; J. Demargne; J. Bauman

    2008-01-01

    The US National Weather Service (NWS) North Central River Forecast Center (NCRFC) produces short- range streamflow forecasts (1-7 days) for locations in the Upper Mississippi River basin. Forecasts are issued for select locations on a daily basis, or in some cases as needed during times of high water. The short-range forecasts are produced using the NWS river forecasting system (NWSRFS)

  20. Floods

    MedlinePLUS

    ... when a levee is breached, or when a dam breaks. Flash floods, which can develop quickly, often ... lying area, near water or downstream from a dam. Although there are no guarantees of safety during ...

  1. Floods

    MedlinePLUS

    ... About CDC.gov . Natural Disasters and Severe Weather Earthquakes Being Prepared Emergency Supplies Home Hazards Indoor Safety ... What's New A - Z Index Disasters & Severe Weather Earthquakes Extreme Heat Floods Hurricanes Landslides Tornadoes Tsunamis Volcanoes ...

  2. Impact of ASAR soil moisture data on the MM5 precipitation forecast for the Tanaro flood event of April 2009

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Panegrossi, G.; Ferretti, R.; Pulvirenti, L.; Pierdicca, N.

    2011-12-01

    The representation of land-atmosphere interactions in weather forecast models has a strong impact on the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) and, in turn, on the forecast. Soil moisture is one of the key variables in land surface modelling, and an inadequate initial soil moisture field can introduce major biases in the surface heat and moisture fluxes and have a long-lasting effect on the model behaviour. Detecting the variability of soil characteristics at small scales is particularly important in mesoscale models because of the continued increase of their spatial resolution. In this paper, the high resolution soil moisture field derived from ENVISAT/ASAR observations is used to derive the soil moisture initial condition for the MM5 simulation of the Tanaro flood event of April 2009. The ASAR-derived soil moisture field shows significantly drier conditions compared to the ECMWF analysis. The impact of soil moisture on the forecast has been evaluated in terms of predicted precipitation and rain gauge data available for this event have been used as ground truth. The use of the drier, highly resolved soil moisture content (SMC) shows a significant impact on the precipitation forecast, particularly evident during the early phase of the event. The timing of the onset of the precipitation, as well as the intensity of rainfall and the location of rain/no rain areas, are better predicted. The overall accuracy of the forecast using ASAR SMC data is significantly increased during the first 30 h of simulation. The impact of initial SMC on the precipitation has been related to the change in the water vapour field in the PBL prior to the onset of the precipitation, due to surface evaporation. This study represents a first attempt to establish whether high resolution SAR-based SMC data might be useful for operational use, in anticipation of the launch of the Sentinel-1 satellite.

  3. Comparison of short-term rainfall prediction models for real-time flood forecasting

    Microsoft Academic Search

    E. Toth; A. Brath; A. Montanari

    2000-01-01

    This study compares the accuracy of the short-term rainfall forecasts obtained with time-series analysis techniques, using past rainfall depths as the only input information. The techniques proposed here are linear stochastic auto-regressive moving-average (ARMA) models, artificial neural networks (ANN) and the non-parametric nearest-neighbours method. The rainfall forecasts obtained using the considered methods are then routed through a lumped, conceptual, rainfall–runoff

  4. Development of flood profiles and flood-inundation maps for the Village of Killbuck, Ohio

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ostheimer, Chad J.

    2013-01-01

    Digital flood-inundation maps for a reach of Killbuck Creek near the Village of Killbuck, Ohio, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with Holmes County, Ohio. The inundation maps depict estimates of the areal extent of flooding corresponding to water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage Killbuck Creek near Killbuck (03139000) and were completed as part of an update to Federal Emergency Management Agency Flood-Insurance Study. The maps were provided to the National Weather Service (NWS) for incorporation into a Web-based flood-warning system that can be used in conjunction with NWS flood-forecast data to show areas of predicted flood inundation associated with forecasted flood-peak stages. The digital maps also have been submitted for inclusion in the data libraries of the USGS interactive Flood Inundation Mapper. Data from the streamgage can be used by emergency-management personnel, in conjunction with the flood-inundation maps, to help determine a course of action when flooding is imminent. Flood profiles for selected reaches were prepared by calibrating a steady-state step-backwater model to an established streamgage rating curve. The step-backwater model then was used to determine water-surface-elevation profiles for 10 flood stages at the streamgage with corresponding streamflows ranging from approximately the 50- to 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities. The computed flood profiles were used in combination with digital elevation data to delineate flood-inundation areas.

  5. A Performance Evaluation of the National Air Quality Forecast Capability for the Summer of 2007

    EPA Science Inventory

    This paper provides a performance evaluation of the real-time, CONUS-scale National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC), developed collaboratively by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), that supported, in part,...

  6. Uncertainty analysis of neural network based flood forecasting models: An ensemble based approach for constructing prediction interval

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kasiviswanathan, K.; Sudheer, K.

    2013-05-01

    Artificial neural network (ANN) based hydrologic models have gained lot of attention among water resources engineers and scientists, owing to their potential for accurate prediction of flood flows as compared to conceptual or physics based hydrologic models. The ANN approximates the non-linear functional relationship between the complex hydrologic variables in arriving at the river flow forecast values. Despite a large number of applications, there is still some criticism that ANN's point prediction lacks in reliability since the uncertainty of predictions are not quantified, and it limits its use in practical applications. A major concern in application of traditional uncertainty analysis techniques on neural network framework is its parallel computing architecture with large degrees of freedom, which makes the uncertainty assessment a challenging task. Very limited studies have considered assessment of predictive uncertainty of ANN based hydrologic models. In this study, a novel method is proposed that help construct the prediction interval of ANN flood forecasting model during calibration itself. The method is designed to have two stages of optimization during calibration: at stage 1, the ANN model is trained with genetic algorithm (GA) to obtain optimal set of weights and biases vector, and during stage 2, the optimal variability of ANN parameters (obtained in stage 1) is identified so as to create an ensemble of predictions. During the 2nd stage, the optimization is performed with multiple objectives, (i) minimum residual variance for the ensemble mean, (ii) maximum measured data points to fall within the estimated prediction interval and (iii) minimum width of prediction interval. The method is illustrated using a real world case study of an Indian basin. The method was able to produce an ensemble that has an average prediction interval width of 23.03 m3/s, with 97.17% of the total validation data points (measured) lying within the interval. The derived prediction interval for a selected hydrograph in the validation data set is presented in Fig 1. It is noted that most of the observed flows lie within the constructed prediction interval, and therefore provides information about the uncertainty of the prediction. One specific advantage of the method is that when ensemble mean value is considered as a forecast, the peak flows are predicted with improved accuracy by this method compared to traditional single point forecasted ANNs. Fig. 1 Prediction Interval for selected hydrograph

  7. Policy tenure under the U.S. National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP).

    PubMed

    Michel-Kerjan, Erwann; Lemoyne de Forges, Sabine; Kunreuther, Howard

    2012-04-01

    In the United States, insurance against flood hazard (inland flooding or storm surge from hurricanes) has been provided mainly through the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) since 1968. The NFIP covers $1.23 trillion of assets today. This article provides the first analysis of flood insurance tenure ever undertaken: that is, the number of years that people keep their flood insurance policy before letting it lapse. Our analysis of the entire portfolio of the NFIP over the period 2001-2009 reveals that the median tenure of new policies during that time is between two and four years; it is also relatively stable over time and levels of flood hazard. Prior flood experience can affect tenure: people who have experienced small flood claims tend to hold onto their insurance longer; people who have experienced large flood claims tend to let their insurance lapse sooner. To overcome the policy and governance challenges posed by homeowners' inadequate insurance coverage, we discuss policy recommendations that include for banks and government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) strengthening their requirements and the introduction of multiyear flood insurance contracts attached to the property, both of which are likely to provide more coverage stability and encourage investments in risk-reduction measures. PMID:21919928

  8. Cost of Flooding

    MedlinePLUS

    Floodsmart.gov The official site of the National Flood Insurance Program Call toll free: 1-888-379- ... Term(s): Home What Causes Flooding Coastal Flooding Defining Flood Risks Understanding Flood Maps Undergoing a Map Change ...

  9. Improvement of watershed flood forecasting by typhoon rainfall climate model with an ANN-based southwest monsoon rainfall enhancement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pan, Tsung-Yi; Yang, Yi-Ting; Kuo, Hung-Chi; Tan, Yih-Chi; Lai, Jihn-Sung; Chang, Tsang-Jung; Lee, Cheng-Shang; Hsu, Kathryn Hua

    2013-12-01

    This paper improves the typhoon flood forecasting over a watershed in a mountainous island of Taiwan. In the presence of the stiff topography in Taiwan, the typhoon rainfall is often phased-locked with terrain and the typhoon rainfall in general is best predicted by the typhoon rainfall climate model (TRCM) (Lee et al., 2006). However, the TRCM often underestimates the rainfall amount in cases of slowing moving storms with strong southwest monsoon supply of water vapor flux. We apply an artificial neural network (ANN) based southwest monsoon rainfall enhancement (AME) to improve TRCM rainfall forecasting for the Tsengwen Reservoir watershed in the southwestern Taiwan where maximum typhoon rainfall frequently occurred. Six typhoon cases with significant southwest monsoon water vapor flux are used for the test cases. The precipitations of seven rain gauge stations in the watershed and the southwest monsoon water vapor flux are analyzed to get the spatial distribution of the effective water vapor flux threshold, and the threshold is further used to build the AME model. The results indicate that the flux threshold is related to the topographic lifting of the moist air, with lower threshold in the upstream high altitude stations in the watershed. The lower flux threshold allows a larger rainfall amount with AME. We also incorporated the rainfall prediction with a state space neural network (SSNN) to simulate rainfall-runoff processes. Our improved method is robust and produces better flood predictions of total rainfall and multiple rainfall peaks. The runoff processes in the watershed are improved in terms of coefficient of efficiency, peak discharge, and total volume.

  10. Ensemble Statistical Post-Processing of the National Air Quality Forecast Capability: Enhancing Ozone Forecasts in Baltimore, Maryland

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Garner, Gregory G.; Thompson, Anne M.

    2013-01-01

    An ensemble statistical post-processor (ESP) is developed for the National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) to address the unique challenges of forecasting surface ozone in Baltimore, MD. Air quality and meteorological data were collected from the eight monitors that constitute the Baltimore forecast region. These data were used to build the ESP using a moving-block bootstrap, regression tree models, and extreme-value theory. The ESP was evaluated using a 10-fold cross-validation to avoid evaluation with the same data used in the development process. Results indicate that the ESP is conditionally biased, likely due to slight overfitting while training the regression tree models. When viewed from the perspective of a decision-maker, the ESP provides a wealth of additional information previously not available through the NAQFC alone. The user is provided the freedom to tailor the forecast to the decision at hand by using decision-specific probability thresholds that define a forecast for an ozone exceedance. Taking advantage of the ESP, the user not only receives an increase in value over the NAQFC, but also receives value for An ensemble statistical post-processor (ESP) is developed for the National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) to address the unique challenges of forecasting surface ozone in Baltimore, MD. Air quality and meteorological data were collected from the eight monitors that constitute the Baltimore forecast region. These data were used to build the ESP using a moving-block bootstrap, regression tree models, and extreme-value theory. The ESP was evaluated using a 10-fold cross-validation to avoid evaluation with the same data used in the development process. Results indicate that the ESP is conditionally biased, likely due to slight overfitting while training the regression tree models. When viewed from the perspective of a decision-maker, the ESP provides a wealth of additional information previously not available through the NAQFC alone. The user is provided the freedom to tailor the forecast to the decision at hand by using decision-specific probability thresholds that define a forecast for an ozone exceedance. Taking advantage of the ESP, the user not only receives an increase in value over the NAQFC, but also receives value for

  11. Evaluation of the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model for Flood Forecasting in a Hawaiian Watershed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Awal, R.; Fares, A.; Michaud, J.; Chu, P.; Fares, S.; Rosener, M.; Kevin, K.

    2012-12-01

    The focus of this study was to assess the performance of the U.S. National Weather Service Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model (SAC-SMA) on the flash flood prone Hanalei watershed, Kauai, Hawaii, using site specific hydrologic data. The model was calibrated and validated using six-years of observed field hydrological data, e.g., stream flow, and spatially distributed rainfall. The ordinary kriging method was used to calculate mean watershed wide hourly precipitation for the six years using data from twenty rain gauges from north shore Kauai including five rain gauges within the watershed. Ranges of the values of a priori SAC-SMA parameters were also estimated based on the site specific soil hydrological properties; these calculated values were well within those reported in literature for different watersheds SAC-SMA was run for one year runs using the calibration and validation data. The performance of model in predicting streamflow using average watershed wide values of the a priori parameters was very poor. SAC-SMA over predicted streamflow throughout the year as compared to observed streamflow data. The upper limit of the lower layer tension water capacity, LZTWM, parameter was higher than those reported in the literature this might be due to the wetter conditions, higher precipitation, in Hanalei watershed (>6400mm) than the other previously studied watersheds (<1600mm). When the upper bound of LZTWM varied between 2500 and 3000 during calibration, SAC-SMA's performance improved to satisfactory and even to good for almost all years based on PBIAS and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients of efficiency. When we used optimized parameter of one year to other years for the validation, the performance of optimized parameter of year 2005 was satisfactory for most of the year when upper bound of LZTWM = 2500 and the optimized parameter of year 2004 was satisfactory for most of the year when upper bound of LZTWM = 3000. The annual precipitation of 2004 was the highest however, that of 2005 was the closest to the mean annual precipitation of the study period (2001-2010). The upper bound of LZTWM increased as a function of precipitation, it was equal to 3000 for the 2004 wet year and 2500 for the 2005 which had an average precipitation. Although we increased the upper bound of LZTWM, the performance of SAC-SMA was not satisfactory in all years for both calibration and validation. The main reason for poor performance is due to the high spatial variation of precipitation across the watershed. Furthermore, studies on other tropical basins will help to generalize these findings.

  12. Flood

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    This lesson plan is part of the discoveryschool.com lesson plan library for grades 6-8. It focuses on how flooding can occur due to different types of soil and how soils are able to retain rainwater. It includes objectives, materials, procedures, discussion questions, evaluation ideas, performing extensions, suggested readings, and vocabulary. There are videos available to order which complement this lesson, audio vocabulary, and links to teaching tools for making custom quizzes, worksheets, puzzles and lesson plans.

  13. What is the Safest Way to Cross the Valley of Death: Wisdom gained from Making a Satellite based Flood Forecasting System Operational and Owned by Stakeholders

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hossain, F.

    2013-12-01

    More than a decade ago, the National Research Council report popularized the term 'Valley of Death' to describe the region where research on Weather Satellites had struggled to survive before reaching maturity for societal applications. For example, the space vantage of earth observing satellites can solve some of the world's otherwise fundamentally intractable operational problems on water resources. However, recent experiences show that many of the potential beneficiaries, who are not as familiar with water cycle remote sensing missions or anthropogenic climate studies, referred here as the ';non-traditional consumers,' may have a more skeptical view based on their current practices. This talk will focus on one such non-traditional consumer group: the water resources managers/staff in developing nations of South Asia. Using real-world examples on applications and hands-on-training to make a satellite based flood forecasting system operational, the talk will dissect the view that is shared by many water managers of Bangladesh on satellite remote sensing for day to day decision making. The talk will share the experience and wisdom generated in the successful capacity building of emerging satellite technology for water management. It will end with an overview of initiatives for more effective promotion of the value of planned water cycle satellite missions for water resources management community in the developing world.

  14. Real time flood forecasting in the Nan Basin, Thailand, by using a distributed Xin'anjiang Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Xiaohong; Qiu, Xiaobin

    2015-04-01

    Taking Nan basin in Thailand as a research case, on the basis of DEM, this paper extracts the digital information of Nan basin and divides it into ten sub-basins, considering the land usage and terrain distribution, to construct the distributed Xinanjiang model. Before the model simulation, various digital basin information is established involving elevation matrix, river net matrix, direction matrix and so on. The three-water-source Xinanjiang model is adopted in the grids to calculate the runoff yield under a specific precipitation in grids, and then all the water flows of the grids are convoluted to the sub-basin's outlet to synthesize the runoff process of a subbasin. Eventually the subbasin runoff is routed to the basin outlet to obtain runoff process of the whole basin with real-time correction. The model parameters are calibrated by using the trial and error method. The sensitivity and uncertainty of the parameters are analyzed. The main achievements of this paper are as follows. (1) The basin information is extracted and the digital NAN basin is constructed on the basis of DEM data. As a result, a series of basin information matrix and digital Nan basin are generated. (2) The constant flow in grids and isochrones concept are used to replace the unit hydrograph of sub-basins. The basin discharge process is obtained through calculating the grid runoff yield and subbasin runoff convolution and routing the subbasin runoffs to the basin outlet. (3) The model is calibrated on more than 50 historical flood processes. The sensitivity and uncertainty of model parameters are analyzed by the perturbation analysis method, showing that some parameters, including KC, KKG, KKSS, WUM, KG, WLM, KSS and WDM are more sensitive. At the same time, the model uncertainty is analyed by the GLUE method and the results illustrate that the simulation effect depends on the values of parameter group while the observed runoff is in the uncertainty range. (4) The calculated discharge process is adaptively corrected by Attenuation memory least squares method to obtain final forecasting flood process. Verifications of this real-time flood forecasting model show high precision and the model system has been practically used in Thailand.

  15. An overview of the National Weather Service's centralized statistical quantitative precipitation forecasts

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Mark S Antolik

    2000-01-01

    The current operational statistical quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) system of the US National Weather Service (NWS) is described. This system produces categorical QPF for stations within the contiguous US and Alaska, and utilizes the Model Output Statistics (MOS) technique applied to output from the NWS Nested Grid Model (NGM). Operational forecasts from this system improve significantly over the gridpoint precipitation

  16. A Novel Hydro-information System for Improving National Weather Service River Forecast System

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Z. Nan; S. Wang; X. Liang; T. E. Adams; W. L. Teng; Y. Liang

    2009-01-01

    A novel hydro-information system has been developed to improve the forecast accuracy of the NOAA National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS). An MKF-based (Multiscale Kalman Filter) spatial data assimilation framework, together with the NOAH land surface model, is employed in our system to assimilate satellite surface soil moisture data to yield improved evapotranspiration. The latter are then integrated into

  17. The impact of satellite temperature soundings on the forecasts of a small national meteorological service

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wolfson, N.; Thomasell, A.; Alperson, Z.; Brodrick, H.; Chang, J. T.; Gruber, A.; Ohring, G.

    1984-01-01

    The impact of introducing satellite temperature sounding data on a numerical weather prediction model of a national weather service is evaluated. A dry five level, primitive equation model which covers most of the Northern Hemisphere, is used for these experiments. Series of parallel forecast runs out to 48 hours are made with three different sets of initial conditions: (1) NOSAT runs, only conventional surface and upper air observations are used; (2) SAT runs, satellite soundings are added to the conventional data over oceanic regions and North Africa; and (3) ALLSAT runs, the conventional upper air observations are replaced by satellite soundings over the entire model domain. The impact on the forecasts is evaluated by three verification methods: the RMS errors in sea level pressure forecasts, systematic errors in sea level pressure forecasts, and errors in subjective forecasts of significant weather elements for a selected portion of the model domain. For the relatively short range of the present forecasts, the major beneficial impacts on the sea level pressure forecasts are found precisely in those areas where the satellite sounding are inserted and where conventional upper air observations are sparse. The RMS and systematic errors are reduced in these regions. The subjective forecasts of significant weather elements are improved with the use of the satellite data. It is found that the ALLSAT forecasts are of a quality comparable to the SAR forecasts.

  18. Coupling Green-Ampt infiltration method and two-dimensional kinematic wave theory for flood forecast in semi-arid catchment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, L.-L.; Chen, D.-H.; Li, Z.-J.; Zhao, L.-N.

    2011-08-01

    Due to the specific characteristics of semi-arid catchments, this paper aims to establish a grid-and-Green-Ampt-and-two-dimensional-kinematic-wave-based distributed hydrological physical model (Grid-GA-2D model) coupling Green-Ampt infiltration method and two dimensional overland flow routing model based on kinematic wave theory for flood simulation and forecasting with using GIS technology and digital elevation model (DEM). Taking into consideration the soil moisture redistribution at hillslope, Green-Ampt infiltration physical method is applied for grid-based runoff generation and two-dimensional implicit finite difference kinematic wave model is introduced to solve depressions water storing for grid-based overland flow concentration routing in the Grid-GA-2D model. The Grid-GA-2D model, the Grid-GA model with coupling Green-Ampt infiltration method and one-dimension kinematic wave theory, and Shanbei model were employed to the upper Kongjiapo catchment in Qin River, a tributary of the Yellow River, with an area of 1454 km2 for flood simulation. Results show that two grid-based distributed hydrological models perform better in flood simulation and can be used for flood forecasting in semi-arid catchments. Comparing with the Grid-GA model, the flood peak simulation accuracy of the newly developed model is higher.

  19. Numerical Study of the Port of Miami (Importance of Dodge Island) in Storm Surge and Flooding Forecasting in North Biscayne Bay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, H.; Zhang, K.; Li, Y.

    2011-12-01

    The importance of Port of Miami (Dodge Island) in storm surge and flooding forecasting in North Biscayne Bay was investigated by using the numerical model Coastal and Estuarine Storm Tide (CEST). Firstly, CEST was applied to Hurricane Andrew of 1992 in the Biscayne Bay basin and validated by in situ measurements, which indicated the model results had good agreement with measured data. Secondly, two sets of experiments using Hurricane Miami of 1926 were conducted to study the role of Dodge Island in storm surge and flooding forecasting in North Biscayne Bay: one set of experiments were run in today's Biscayne Bay basin and another set of experiments were run in Biscayne Bay basin of 1926 in which Dodge Island was not created yet. Results indicated that storm surge and flooding areas were reduced a little bit in Miami River areas when Dodge Island was not there. Meanwhile, storm surge and flooding areas in North Miami and Miami Beach regions were largely increased. Results further indicated that as long as the hurricane made landfall in south of Dodge Island, it can provide a good protection for Miami Beach area to reduce storm surge and flooding impacts.

  20. Seasonal Drought Prediction in East Africa: Can National Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts Help?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shukla, Shraddhanand; Roberts, J. B.; Funk, Christopher; Robertson, F. R.; Hoell, Andrew

    2015-01-01

    The increasing food and water demands of East Africa's growing population are stressing the region's inconsistent water resources and rain-fed agriculture. As recently as in 2011 part of this region underwent one of the worst famine events in its history. Timely and skillful drought forecasts at seasonal scale for this region can inform better water and agro-pastoral management decisions, support optimal allocation of the region's water resources, and mitigate socio-economic losses incurred by droughts. However seasonal drought prediction in this region faces several challenges. Lack of skillful seasonal rainfall forecasts; the focus of this presentation, is one of those major challenges. In the past few decades, major strides have been taken towards improvement of seasonal scale dynamical climate forecasts. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) National Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) is one such state-of-the-art dynamical climate forecast system. The NMME incorporates climate forecasts from 6+ fully coupled dynamical models resulting in 100+ ensemble member forecasts. Recent studies have indicated that in general NMME offers improvement over forecasts from any single model. However thus far the skill of NMME for forecasting rainfall in a vulnerable region like the East Africa has been unexplored. In this presentation we report findings of a comprehensive analysis that examines the strength and weakness of NMME in forecasting rainfall at seasonal scale in East Africa for all three of the prominent seasons for the region. (i.e. March-April-May, July-August-September and October-November- December). Simultaneously we also describe hybrid approaches; that combine statistical approaches with NMME forecasts; to improve rainfall forecast skill in the region when raw NMME forecasts lack in skill.

  1. Seasonal Drought Prediction in East Africa: Can National Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts Help?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shukla, Shraddhanand; Roberts, J. B.; Funk, Christopher; Robertson, F. R.; Hoell, Andrew

    2014-01-01

    The increasing food and water demands of East Africa's growing population are stressing the region's inconsistent water resources and rain-fed agriculture. As recently as in 2011 part of this region underwent one of the worst famine events in its history. Timely and skillful drought forecasts at seasonal scale for this region can inform better water and agro-pastoral management decisions, support optimal allocation of the region's water resources, and mitigate socio-economic losses incurred by droughts. However seasonal drought prediction in this region faces several challenges. Lack of skillful seasonal rainfall forecasts; the focus of this presentation, is one of those major challenges. In the past few decades, major strides have been taken towards improvement of seasonal scale dynamical climate forecasts. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) National Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) is one such state-of-the-art dynamical climate forecast system. The NMME incorporates climate forecasts from 6+ fully coupled dynamical models resulting in 100+ ensemble member forecasts. Recent studies have indicated that in general NMME offers improvement over forecasts from any single model. However thus far the skill of NMME for forecasting rainfall in a vulnerable region like the East Africa has been unexplored. In this presentation we report findings of a comprehensive analysis that examines the strength and weakness of NMME in forecasting rainfall at seasonal scale in East Africa for all three of the prominent seasons for the region. (i.e. March-April-May, July-August-September and October-November- December). Simultaneously we also describe hybrid approaches; that combine statistical approaches with NMME forecasts; to improve rainfall forecast skill in the region when raw NMME forecasts lack in skill.

  2. Assessment of the total predictive uncertainty of a real-time hydro-meteorological flood forecasting system using bivariate meta-gaussian density.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hostache, R.; Matgen, P.; Montanari, M.; Fosty, C.; Pfister, L.

    2009-05-01

    Medium range rainfall forecasts are increasingly used in operational flood forecasting applications as they provide an inviting option for extending prediction lead-times. Nonetheless, there is significant uncertainty associated with hydro-meteorological simulations. As a matter of fact, techniques for assessing hydro- meteorological model uncertainty have received a great deal of attention by researchers in recent years. In any flood forecasting system, the predictive uncertainty originates from several causes interacting between each other, namely input uncertainty, model structure uncertainty and parameter uncertainty. Furthermore, it appears to be difficult to isolate the errors that stem from the individual model components. In this framework, the study focuses on the analysis of the statistical properties of deterministic hydro- meteorological model error series, computed with respect to historic time series of observed discharge, in order to provide confidence intervals of discharge forecasts. Based on model error statistics, the proposed approach leads to the estimation of the uncertainty in an aggregated system (coupled atmospheric-hydrologic models), thereby rendering the assessment of uncertainty originating from the individual contributions unnecessary. Nevertheless, it is difficult to infer statistical properties from the prediction error since the residuals often appear to be non-stationary, in particular heteroscedastic, affected by serial correlation and with a non normal distribution. To solve this problem, the estimation of probability distributions of runoff simulation errors, conditioned by the value of flow, is performed using a meta-gaussian model. The latter is based on the application of a standard Normal Quantile Transform that makes the distribution of the model outputs and the model errors Gaussian in order to render straightforward the computation of confidence intervals. The approach is tested by the means of a case study that focuses on a real-time flood forecasting system that was set-up on the Alzette River in Luxembourg. The integrated flood forecasting system uses the rainfall and temperature forecasts of the American atmospheric GFS model (deterministic run) as forcing data in a conceptual hydrological model (deterministic run) to predict river discharge. Confidence intervals of discharge forecasts are computed for various prediction lead times and compared with the respective observations of river discharge.

  3. 75 FR 54076 - National Flood Insurance Program, Policy Wording Correction

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-09-03

    ...Children From Environmental Health Risks and Safety Risks...create environmental health risks or safety risks...Children From Environmental Health Risks and Safety Risks...Subjects in 44 CFR Part 61 Flood insurance, Reporting...Administrator, Federal Emergency Management Agency. [FR Doc....

  4. Skill Assessment of National Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts for Seasonal Drought Prediction in East Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shukla, S.; Hoell, A.; Roberts, J. B.; Funk, C. C.; Robertson, F. R.

    2014-12-01

    The increasing food and water demands of East Africa's growing population are stressing the region's inconsistent water resources and rain-fed agriculture. As recently as 2011, part of this region underwent one of the worst famine events in its history. Timely and skillful drought forecasts at a seasonal scale for this region can inform better water and agro-pastoral management decisions, support optimal allocation of the region's water resources, and mitigate socio-economic losses incurred by droughts. However, seasonal drought prediction in this region faces several challenges including lack of skillful seasonal rainfall forecasts. The National Multi-model Ensemble (NMME); a state-of-the-art dynamical climate forecast system is potentially a promising tool for drought prediction in this region. The NMME incorporates climate forecasts from 6+ fully coupled dynamical models resulting in 100+ forecasts ensemble members. Recent studies have indicated that in general NMME offers improvement over forecasts from any of the individual model. However, thus far the skill of NMME for forecasting rainfall in a vulnerable region like East Africa has largely been unexplored. In this presentation we report findings of a comprehensive analysis that examines the strength and weakness of NMME in forecasting rainfall at seasonal scale in East Africa for all three of the prominent seasons of the region. (i.e. March-April-May, July-August-September, and October-November-December). Additionally we describe a hybrid approach that combines statistical method with NMME forecasts to improve rainfall forecast skill in the region when raw NMME forecasts skill is lacking. This approach uses constructed analog method to improve NMME's March-April-May rainfall forecast skill in East Africa.

  5. Using ensemble NWP wind power forecasts to improve national power system management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cannon, D.; Brayshaw, D.; Methven, J.; Coker, P.; Lenaghan, D.

    2014-12-01

    National power systems are becoming increasingly sensitive to atmospheric variability as generation from wind (and other renewables) increases. As such, the days-ahead predictability of wind power has significant implications for power system management. At this time horizon, power system operators plan transmission line outages for maintenance. In addition, forecast users begin to form backup strategies to account for the uncertainty in wind power predictions. Under-estimating this uncertainty could result in a failure to meet system security standards, or in the worst instance, a shortfall in total electricity supply. On the other hand, overly conservative assumptions about the forecast uncertainty incur costs associated with the unnecessary holding of reserve power. Using the power system of Great Britain (GB) as an example, we construct time series of GB-total wind power output using wind speeds from either reanalyses or global weather forecasts. To validate the accuracy of these data sets, wind power reconstructions using reanalyses and forecast analyses over a recent period are compared to measured GB-total power output. The results are found to be highly correlated on time scales greater than around 6 hours. Results are presented using ensemble wind power forecasts from several national and international forecast centres (obtained through TIGGE). Firstly, the skill with which global ensemble forecasts can represent the uncertainty in the GB-total power output at up to 10 days ahead is quantified. Following this, novel ensemble forecast metrics are developed to improve estimates of forecast uncertainty within the context of power system operations, thus enabling the development of more cost effective strategies. Finally, the predictability of extreme events such as prolonged low wind periods or rapid changes in wind power output are examined in detail. These events, if poorly forecast, induce high stress scenarios that could threaten the security of the power system.

  6. Hydrologic Forecasting at the US National Weather Service in the 21st Century: Transition from the NWS River Forecast System (NWSRFS) to the Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS)

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Pedro Restrepo; Jon Roe; Christine Dietz; Micha Werner; Peter Gijsbers; Robert Hartman; Harold Opitz; Billy Olsen; John Halquist; Robert Shedd

    2010-01-01

    The US National Weather Service developed the River Forecast System (NWSRFS) since the 1970s as the platform for performing hydrologic forecasts. The system, originally developed for the computers of that era, was optimized for speed of execution and compact and fast data storage and retrieval. However, with modern computers those features became less of a driver, and, instead, the ability

  7. Verification of Experimental Short-Term Streamflow Ensemble Forecasts Produced by the U.S. National Weather Service

    Microsoft Academic Search

    J. Demargne; L. Wu; S. K. Regonda; J. D. Brown

    2010-01-01

    As challenges in water resources management and risk mitigation continue to increase, the Office of Hydrologic Development of NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS), in collaboration with the NWS River Forecast Centers, has been actively developing an experimental capability for Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) to better quantify the uncertainties associated with the major sources of error in hydrologic forecasting. The

  8. Forecasting

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    This site is a joint effort of NOAA Research and the College of Education at the University of South Alabama. The goal of the site is to provide middle school science students and teachers with research and investigation experiences using on-line resources. In this unit students look at the science of weather forecasting as a science by exploring cloud, temperatures, and air pressure data and information. Students apply this information to interpret and relate meteorological maps to each other. Parts of the unit include gathering information from other websites, applying the data gathered, and performing enrichment exercises. This site contains a downloadable teachers guide, student guide, and all activity sheets to make the unit complete.

  9. Avalanche Forecasting for Transportation Corridor and Backcountry in Glacier National Park (BC, Canada)

    E-print Network

    Smith, Dan

    Avalanche Forecasting for Transportation Corridor and Backcountry in Glacier National Park (BC, 2500 University Drive NW Calgary AB T2N 1N4, Canada David Skjonsberg Avalanche Control, Mt. Revelstoke and Glacier National Parks, PO Box 350 Revelstoke BC V0E 2S0, Canada ABSTRACT. The Avalanche Control Section

  10. NOAA'S Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service: Building Pathways for Better Science in Water Forecasting.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McEnery, John; Ingram, John; Duan, Qingyun; Adams, Thomas; Anderson, Lee

    2005-03-01

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) program was established to meet our nation's need for more precise flash-flood forecast information. AHPS uses NOAA investments in remote sensing, precipitation forecasts, climate predictions, data automation, hydrologic science, and operational forecast system technologies. AHPS establishes a pathway for the infusion of new verified science and technology, and expands the use of NWS climate, weather, and water analyses and information products. State-of-the-art science is used for improved operational forecasting of floods, and drought conditions. The objective is to deliver more precise forecast information over greater temporal scales (hours, days, and months) and to depict the magnitude and certainty of occurrence for events ranging from droughts to floods. The AHPS program improves flash-flood forecasts, and provides ensemble streamflow forecasting and flood-forecast maps. AHPS information is accessible to customers by the internet with texts and graphics. This paper describes AHPS forecasting services and their implementation status.

  11. Analysis of Flood Hazards for the Materials and Fuels Complex at the Idaho National Laboratory Site

    SciTech Connect

    Skaggs, Richard; Breithaupt, Stephen A.; Waichler, Scott R.; Kim, Taeyun; Ward, Duane L.

    2010-11-01

    Researchers at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory conducted a flood hazard analysis for the Materials and Fuels Complex (MFC) site located at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) site in southeastern Idaho. The general approach for the analysis was to determine the maximum water elevation levels associated with the design-basis flood (DBFL) and compare them to the floor elevations at critical building locations. Two DBFLs for the MFC site were developed using different precipitation inputs: probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and 10,000 year recurrence interval precipitation. Both precipitation inputs were used to drive a watershed runoff model for the surrounding upland basins and the MFC site. Outflows modeled with the Hydrologic Engineering Centers Hydrologic Modeling System were input to the Hydrologic Engineering Centers River Analysis System hydrodynamic flood routing model.

  12. Application of a rule-based system for flash flood forecasting taking into account climate change in the Llobregat basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Velasco, M.; Cabello, A.; Barrera-Escoda, A.; Versini, P. A.; Zappa, M.

    2012-04-01

    IMPRINTS, an EC 7th Framework Programme project, has the main objective of contributing to the reduction of loss of lives and economic damage through the improvement of preparedness and operational risk management of flash floods (FF) and debris flow (DF) events. Global change is expected to put more stress on the entire water cycle and extreme events are likely to increase due to climate change. Thus, in the context of this project, impacts of future changes are analysed. The results of the project have been tested in the Llobregat river basin, in the Northeastern part of Spain. Its source is in the Pyrenees, and due to the rough orography of the region and the reduced size of most of the sub-basins, the hydrologic response times of these watersheds are around a few hours. The basin presents the typical Mediterranean climate where one third of the average annual precipitation can fall in less than 48h. Hence, flash floods occur during convective storms in many of the sub-basins. For this study, the Alt Llobregat, Anoia and Gaverresa sub-basins have been studied. One of the tasks of the IMPRINTS Project dealt with the development of different rule-based FF and DF forecasting systems, with the final goal of providing early warnings to the river basin authorities, improving the operation and management of extreme events. Nevertheless, in this work future climate change scenarios were implemented in the FF rule-based system for the mentioned Llobregat sub-basins. Despite losing the operational function, this could also be an issue of high interest, so the ability to represent the future with this system can be tested, and the possible future impacts can be assessed. The rule-based system used, based on daily precipitation data and developed by WSL, allows to determine future peak flows in some of the existing gauges, being able to approximate the increase of future extreme events. This was done using the future climate scenarios (2011 - 2100) developed by SMC and corrected by CRAHI to better represent the spatial variability. Using the previously described information, the future discharge time series for the A2 and B1 SRES scenarios were obtained and a Peak Over Threshold (POT) analysis was undertaken. By comparing the control period to the future ones, the expected changes of flash flood events in terms of occurrence and intensity were assessed. Despite the uncertainties that appear in the process (and which will be further studied in a next phase), the results obtained can shed some light on how future FF events may be. For the three sub-basins of the Llobregat river studied, the results coincide: an increase of both the occurrence and intensity of the peak discharge values will occur.

  13. Calibration and Evaluation of a Flood Forecasting System: Utility of Numerical Weather Prediction Model, Data Assimilation and Satellite-based Rainfall

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yucel, Ismail; Onen, Alper; Yilmaz, Koray; Gochis, David

    2015-04-01

    A fully-distributed, multi-physics, multi-scale hydrologic and hydraulic modeling system, WRF-Hydro, is used to assess the potential for skillful flood forecasting based on precipitation inputs derived from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the EUMETSAT Multi-sensor Precipitation Estimates (MPEs). Similar to past studies it was found that WRF model precipitation forecast errors related to model initial conditions are reduced when the three dimensional atmospheric data assimilation (3DVAR) scheme in the WRF model simulations is used. The study then undertook a comparative evaluation of the impact of MPE versus WRF precipitation estimates, both with and without data assimilation, in driving WRF-Hydro simulated streamflow. Several flood events that occurred in the Black Sea region were used for testing and evaluation. Following model calibration, the WRF-Hydro system was capable of skillfully reproducing observed flood hydrographs in terms of the volume of the runoff produced and the overall shape of the hydrograph. Streamflow simulation skill was significantly improved for those WRF model simulations where storm precipitation was accurately depicted with respect to timing, location and amount. Accurate streamflow simulations were more evident in WRF model simulations where the 3DVAR scheme was used compared to when it was not used. Because of substantial dry bias feature of MPE, streamflow derived using this precipitation product is in general very poor. Overall, root mean squared errors for runoff were reduced by 22.2% when hydrological model calibration is performed with WRF precipitation. Errors were reduced by 36.9% (above uncalibrated model performance) when both WRF model data assimilation and hydrological model calibration was utilized. Our results also indicated that when assimilated precipitation and model calibration is performed jointly, the calibrated parameters at the gauged sites could be transferred to ungauged neighboring basins where WRF-Hydro reduced mean root mean squared error from 8.31 m3/s to 6.51 m3/s.

  14. Tracking and forecasting the Nation’s water quality - Priorities and strategies for 2013-2023

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rowe, Gary L.; Gilliom, Robert J.; Woodside, Michael D.

    2013-01-01

    Water-quality issues facing the Nation are growing in number and complexity, and solutions are becoming more challenging and costly. Key factors that affect the quality of our drinking water supplies and ecosystem health include contaminants of human and natural origin in streams and groundwater; excess nutrients and sediment; alteration of natural streamflow; eutrophication of lakes, reservoirs, and coastal estuaries; and changes in surface and groundwater quality associated with changes in climate, land and water use, and management practices. Tracking and forecasting the Nation's water quality in the face of these and other pressing water-quality issues are important goals for 2013-2023, the third decade of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) program. In consultation with stakeholders and the National Research Council, a new strategic Science Plan has been developed that describes a strategy for building upon and enhancing assessment of the Nation's freshwater quality and aquatic ecosystems. The plan continues strategies that have been central to the NAWQA program's long-term success, but it also makes adjustments to the monitoring and modeling approaches NAWQA will use to address critical data and science information needs identified by stakeholders. This fact sheet describes surface-water and groundwater monitoring and modeling activities that will start in fiscal year 2013. It also provides examples of the types of data and information products planned for the next decade, including (1) restored monitoring for reliable and timely status and trend assessments, (2) maps and models that show the distribution of selected contaminants (such as atrazine, nitrate, and arsenic) in streams and aquifers, and (3) Web-based modeling tools that allow managers to evaluate how water quality may change in response to different scenarios of population growth, climate change, or land-use management.

  15. Error discrimination of an operational hydrological forecasting system at a national scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jordan, F.; Brauchli, T.

    2010-09-01

    The use of operational hydrological forecasting systems is recommended for hydropower production as well as flood management. However, the forecast uncertainties can be important and lead to bad decisions such as false alarms and inappropriate reservoir management of hydropower plants. In order to improve the forecasting systems, it is important to discriminate the different sources of uncertainties. To achieve this task, reanalysis of past predictions can be realized and provide information about the structure of the global uncertainty. In order to discriminate between uncertainty due to the weather numerical model and uncertainty due to the rainfall-runoff model, simulations assuming perfect weather forecast must be realized. This contribution presents the spatial analysis of the weather uncertainties and their influence on the river discharge prediction of a few different river basins where an operational forecasting system exists. The forecast is based on the RS 3.0 system [1], [2], which is also running the open Internet platform www.swissrivers.ch [3]. The uncertainty related to the hydrological model is compared to the uncertainty related to the weather prediction. A comparison between numerous weather prediction models [4] at different lead times is also presented. The results highlight an important improving potential of both forecasting components: the hydrological rainfall-runoff model and the numerical weather prediction models. The hydrological processes must be accurately represented during the model calibration procedure, while weather prediction models suffer from a systematic spatial bias. REFERENCES [1] Garcia, J., Jordan, F., Dubois, J. & Boillat, J.-L. 2007. "Routing System II, Modélisation d'écoulements dans des systèmes hydrauliques", Communication LCH n° 32, Ed. Prof. A. Schleiss, Lausanne [2] Jordan, F. 2007. Modèle de prévision et de gestion des crues - optimisation des opérations des aménagements hydroélectriques à accumulation pour la réduction des débits de crue, thèse de doctorat n° 3711, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale, Lausanne [3] Keller, R. 2009. "Le débit des rivières au peigne fin", Revue Technique Suisse, N°7/8 2009, Swiss engineering RTS, UTS SA, Lausanne, p. 11 [4] Kaufmann, P., Schubiger, F. & Binder, P. 2003. Precipitation forecasting by a mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model : eight years of experience, Hydrology and Earth System

  16. Development of a flood-warning network and flood-inundation mapping for the Blanchard River in Ottawa, Ohio

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Whitehead, Matthew T.

    2011-01-01

    Digital flood-inundation maps of the Blanchard River in Ottawa, Ohio, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Natural Resources Conservation Service and the Village of Ottawa, Ohio. The maps, which correspond to water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage at Ottawa (USGS streamgage site number 04189260), were provided to the National Weather Service (NWS) for incorporation into a Web-based flood-warning Network that can be used in conjunction with NWS flood-forecast data to show areas of predicted flood inundation associated with forecasted flood-peak stages. Flood profiles were computed by means of a step-backwater model calibrated to recent field measurements of streamflow. The step-backwater model was then used to determine water-surface-elevation profiles for 12 flood stages with corresponding streamflows ranging from less than the 2-year and up to nearly the 500-year recurrence-interval flood. The computed flood profiles were used in combination with digital elevation data to delineate flood-inundation areas. Maps of the Village of Ottawa showing flood-inundation areas overlain on digital orthophotographs are presented for the selected floods. As part of this flood-warning network, the USGS upgraded one streamgage and added two new streamgages, one on the Blanchard River and one on Riley Creek, which is tributary to the Blanchard River. The streamgage sites were equipped with both satellite and telephone telemetry. The telephone telemetry provides dual functionality, allowing village officials and the public to monitor current stage conditions and enabling the streamgage to call village officials with automated warnings regarding flood stage and/or predetermined rates of stage increase. Data from the streamgages serve as a flood warning that emergency management personnel can use in conjunction with the flood-inundation maps by to determine a course of action when flooding is imminent.

  17. Flood-inundation maps for the White River near Edwardsport, Indiana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fowler, Kathleen K.

    2014-01-01

    The availability of these maps, along with Internet information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgage 03360730 White River near Edwardsport, Ind., and forecasted stream stages from the National Weather Service, provides emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for post-flood recovery efforts.

  18. Flood Risk and Flood hazard maps - Visualisation of hydrological risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spachinger, Karl; Dorner, Wolfgang; Metzka, Rudolf; Serrhini, Kamal; Fuchs, Sven

    2008-11-01

    Hydrological models are an important basis of flood forecasting and early warning systems. They provide significant data on hydrological risks. In combination with other modelling techniques, such as hydrodynamic models, they can be used to assess the extent and impact of hydrological events. The new European Flood Directive forces all member states to evaluate flood risk on a catchment scale, to compile maps of flood hazard and flood risk for prone areas, and to inform on a local level about these risks. Flood hazard and flood risk maps are important tools to communicate flood risk to different target groups. They provide compiled information to relevant public bodies such as water management authorities, municipalities, or civil protection agencies, but also to the broader public. For almost each section of a river basin, run-off and water levels can be defined based on the likelihood of annual recurrence, using a combination of hydrological and hydrodynamic models, supplemented by an analysis of historical records and mappings. In combination with data related to the vulnerability of a region risk maps can be derived. The project RISKCATCH addressed these issues of hydrological risk and vulnerability assessment focusing on the flood risk management process. Flood hazard maps and flood risk maps were compiled for Austrian and German test sites taking into account existing national and international guidelines. These maps were evaluated by eye-tracking using experimental graphic semiology. Sets of small-scale as well as large-scale risk maps were presented to test persons in order to (1) study reading behaviour as well as understanding and (2) deduce the most attractive components that are essential for target-oriented risk communication. A cognitive survey asking for negative and positive aspects and complexity of each single map complemented the experimental graphic semiology. The results indicate how risk maps can be improved to fit the needs of different user groups. Recommendations were developed of how to provide stakeholder-oriented information on hydrological risks.

  19. Effects of forcing uncertainties in the improvement skills of assimilating satellite soil moisture retrievals into flood forecasting models

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Floods have negative impacts on society, causing damages in infrastructures and industry, and in the worst cases, causing loss of human lives. Thus early and accurate warning is crucial to significantly reduce the impacts on public safety and economy. Reliable flood warning can be generated using ...

  20. Water availability and flood hazards in the John Day Fossil Beds National Monument, Oregon

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Frank, Frank J.; Oster, E.A.

    1979-01-01

    The rock formations of the John Day Fossil Beds National Monument area are aquifers that can be expected to yield less than 10 gallons of water per minute to wells. The most permeable of the geologic units is the alluvium that occurs at low elevations along the John Day River and most of the smaller streams. Wells in the alluvial deposits can be expected to yield adequate water supplies for recreational areas; also, wells completed in the underlying bedrock at depths ranging from 50 to 200 feet could yield as much as 10 gallons per minute. Pumping tests on two unused wells indicated yields of 8 gallons per minute and 2 gallons per minute. Nine of the ten springs measured in and near the monument area in late August of 1978 were flowing 0.2 to 30 gallons per minute. Only the Cant Ranch spring and the Johnny Kirk Spring near the Sheep Rock unit had flows exceeding 6 gallons per minute. Chemical analyses of selected constituents of the ground water indicated generally low concentrations of dissolved minerals. Although cloudbursts in the Painted Hills unit could generate a flood wave on the valley floors, flood danger can be reduced by locating recreational sites on high ground. The campground in Indian Canyon of the Clarno unit is vulnerable to cloudburst flooding. About 80 percent of the proposed campground on the John Day River in the Sheep Rock unit is above the estimated level of 1-percent chance flood (100-year flood) of the river. The 1-percent chance flood would extend about 120 feet from the riverbank into the upstream end of the campground. (USGS).

  1. Flood producing mechanism identification in Otava river

    Microsoft Academic Search

    T. Vlasák

    2009-01-01

    Variability of flood causes is strongly determined by geographic environment of catchment area. Identification of unique flood characteristics such as seasonality, precipitation pattern, or typical interference of flood peaks at river confluences could be very useful for flood forecasting and control. Analysis of historical flood causes is proved method to get this knowledge. Paper describes compilation and analysis of Flood

  2. Aiming towards improved flood forecasting: Identification of an adequate model structure for a semi-arid and data-scarce region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pilz, Tobias; Francke, Till; Bronstert, Axel

    2015-04-01

    A lot of effort has already been put into the development of forecasting systems to warn people of approaching flood events. Such systems, however, are influenced by various sources of uncertainty which constrain the skill of forecasts. The main goal of this study is the identification, quantification and reduction of uncertainties to provide improved early warnings with adequate lead times in a data-scarce region with strong seasonality of the hydrological regime. This includes the setup of hydrological models and post-processing of simulation results by mathematical means such as data assimilation. The focus area is the Jaguaribe watershed in northeastern Brazil. The region is characterized by a seasonal climate with strong inter-annual variation and recurrent droughts. To ensure a secure water supply also during the dry season several thousand small and some large reservoirs have been constructed. On the other hand, floods caused by heavy rain events are an issue as well. This topic, however, so far has hardly been considered by the scientific community and until today no flood forecasting system exists for that region. To identify the most appropriate model structure for the catchment the process-based hydrological model for semi-arid environments WASA was implemented into the eco-hydrological simulation environment ECHSE. The environment consists of a generic part providing data types and simulation methods, and a problem-specific part where the user can implement different model formulations. This provides the possibility to test various process realisations under consistent input and output data structures. The most appropriate model structure can then be determined by statistical means such as Bayesian model averaging. Subsequently, forecast results may be updated by post-processing and/or data assimilation. Furthermore, methods of data fusion can be used to combine measurements of different quality and resolution, such as in-situ and remotely sensed data, and reduce uncertainties in input data and boundary conditions of the model and in the data assimilation procedure. In this contribution the setup of the simulation environment and identification of an appropriate model structure for a meso-scale and data-scarce region in a semi-arid environment is presented.

  3. On the use of wave parameterizations and a storm impact scaling model in National Weather Service Coastal Flood and decision support operations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mignone, Anthony; Stockdon, H.; Willis, M.; Cannon, J.W.; Thompson, R.

    2012-01-01

    National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFO) are responsible for issuing coastal flood watches, warnings, advisories, and local statements to alert decision makers and the general public when rising water levels may lead to coastal impacts such as inundation, erosion, and wave battery. Both extratropical and tropical cyclones can generate the prerequisite rise in water level to set the stage for a coastal impact event. Forecasters use a variety of tools including computer model guidance and local studies to help predict the potential severity of coastal flooding. However, a key missing component has been the incorporation of the effects of waves in the prediction of total water level and the associated coastal impacts. Several recent studies have demonstrated the importance of incorporating wave action into the NWS coastal flood program. To follow up on these studies, this paper looks at the potential of applying recently developed empirical parameterizations of wave setup, swash, and runup to the NWS forecast process. Additionally, the wave parameterizations are incorporated into a storm impact scaling model that compares extreme water levels to beach elevation data to determine the mode of coastal change at predetermined “hotspots” of interest. Specifically, the storm impact model compares the approximate storm-induced still water level, which includes contributions from tides, storm surge, and wave setup, to dune crest elevation to determine inundation potential. The model also compares the combined effects of tides, storm surge, and the 2 % exceedance level for vertical wave runup (including both wave setup and swash) to dune toe and crest elevations to determine if erosion and/or ocean overwash may occur. The wave parameterizations and storm impact model are applied to two cases in 2009 that led to significant coastal impacts and unique forecast challenges in North Carolina: the extratropical “Nor'Ida” event during 11-14 November and the large swell event from distant Hurricane Bill on 22 August. The coastal impacts associated with Nor'Ida were due to the combined effects of surge, tide, and wave processes and led to an estimated 5.8 million dollars in damage. While the impacts from Hurricane Bill were not as severe as Nor'Ida, they were mainly associated with wave processes. Thus, this event exemplifies the importance of incorporating waves into the total water level and coastal impact prediction process. These examples set the stage for potential future applications including adaption to the more complex topography along the New England coast.

  4. Probabilistic calibration of the distributed hydrological model RIBS applied to real-time flood forecasting: the Harod river basin case study (Israel)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nesti, Alice; Mediero, Luis; Garrote, Luis; Caporali, Enrica

    2010-05-01

    An automatic probabilistic calibration method for distributed rainfall-runoff models is presented. The high number of parameters in hydrologic distributed models makes special demands on the optimization procedure to estimate model parameters. With the proposed technique it is possible to reduce the complexity of calibration while maintaining adequate model predictions. The first step of the calibration procedure of the main model parameters is done manually with the aim to identify their variation range. Afterwards a Monte-Carlo technique is applied, which consists on repetitive model simulations with randomly generated parameters. The Monte Carlo Analysis Toolbox (MCAT) includes a number of analysis methods to evaluate the results of these Monte Carlo parameter sampling experiments. The study investigates the use of a global sensitivity analysis as a screening tool to reduce the parametric dimensionality of multi-objective hydrological model calibration problems, while maximizing the information extracted from hydrological response data. The method is applied to the calibration of the RIBS flood forecasting model in the Harod river basin, placed on Israel. The Harod basin has an extension of 180 km2. The catchment has a Mediterranean climate and it is mainly characterized by a desert landscape, with a soil that is able to absorb large quantities of rainfall and at the same time is capable to generate high peaks of discharge. Radar rainfall data with 6 minute temporal resolution are available as input to the model. The aim of the study is the validation of the model for real-time flood forecasting, in order to evaluate the benefits of improved precipitation forecasting within the FLASH European project.

  5. Long-term trends in flood fatalities in the United State

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharif, Hatim; Chaturvedi, Smita

    2015-04-01

    This presentation reviews flood-related fatalities in the United States between 1959 and 2013. Information on flood fatality victims and the flood-causing events was obtained from the National Climatic Data Center. The data collected included the date, time, location, and weather conditions and the gender and age of the flood victims. Long term trends in the numbers of fatalities and fatality rates were analyzed. For most of the states fatalities were largely caused by single catastrophic events. The analysis indicates that the standardized annual flood fatality rates are decreasing significantly for all states. Vehicle related fatalities represent more than 50% of flood fatalities for most of the states and can be as high as 77%. A combination of improved hydrometeorological forecasting, educational programs aimed at enhancing public awareness of flood risk and the seriousness of flood warnings, and timely and appropriate action by local emergency and safety authorities will help further reduce flood fatalities in Texas.

  6. Improving Projected Potential Evapotranspiration Estimates Using National Weather Service Forecasts

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Steven J. Meyer; Kenneth G. Hubbard; Donald A. Wilhite

    1988-01-01

    In a recent survey conducted by the University of Nebrask's Center for Agricultural Meteorology and Climatology of Agricultural Network (AGNET) users, the results of potential evapotranspiration (ETp) projections (calculated using the Blaney-Criddle approach, which employs `normal' climatic data to project ETp, estimates up to three days into the future) were labeled `unrealistic'. To improve these projection National Weather Service (NWS)

  7. Verification of National Weather Service Ensemble Streamflow Predictions for Water Supply Forecasting in the Colorado River Basin

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Kristie J. Franz; Holly C. Hartmann; Soroosh Sorooshian; Roger Bales

    2003-01-01

    The Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) system, developed by the National Weather Service (NWS), uses conceptual hydrologic models and historical data to generate a set, or ensemble, of possible streamflow scenarios conditioned on the initial states of a given basin. Using this approach, simulated historical probabilistic forecasts were generated for 14 forecast points in the Colorado River basin, and the statistical

  8. PROFS to hone local storm forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Richman, Barbara T.

    Short-range forecasting of local tornadoes, flash floods, blizzards, and other severe storms is at best a tangle of myriad pieces of weather data, intricate processing of the data, careful interpretation of the results, and effective and rapid dissemination of the appropriate information; and because accuracy matters, the job becomes Herculean. A prototype program within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has shouldered the task of developing a systematic way to look at weather information and of translating it into operational forecasts for local, severe storms occurring within the proceeding 24 hours.The Prototype Regional Observing and Forecasting Service (PROFS), underway at NOAA's Environmental Research Laboratories in Boulder, Colo., mixes and matches an assortment of techniques used to gather and analyze weather data to see which combination yields the most accurate forecast. PROFS is a cooperative program between the National Weather Service, the National Environmental Satellite Service, and the Environmental Research Laboratories.

  9. 77 FR 31814 - National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP); Insurance Coverage and Rates

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-05-30

    ...community's FIRM are at a greater risk of incurring flood loss because they were constructed...losses, or with two or more flood losses cumulatively greater than the building's value...full-risk premiums for flood insurance coverage to a...

  10. Flooding on the Mighty Mississippi

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    This week, floodwaters of the Mississippi River crested, leading several counties in Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois, and Wisconsin to declare states of emergency. Floodwaters have reached over 22 feet in Davenport Iowa, closing in on the 1993 record water level. Davenport is perhaps particularly hard hit because it is not equipped with concrete levees, as it relies heavily on its riverfront as a tourist attraction, and city residents feel that levees would create an unsightly barrier. Also, many hydrology experts will agree that levees might not be the wisest choice for flood management because they intensify the flooding downriver. This Week's In the News features Websites dealing with Mississippi River flood data, flood management, and general water resources.Readers who wish to catch up on the situation should browse the first few news sites listed above. The first (1), coming straight from the flood frontlines, is from the Minneapolis Star Tribune giving general news about the Mississippi flood. The next two sites cover the situation in Davenport, IA and the controversy over constructing flood walls. The second site (2) is an article from the Los Angeles Times reviewing the controversy over building flood barriers in Davenport. It mentions how other Iowa towns built levees after the disastrous floods of 1965 while Davenport did not. The third site (3) is a special section of Davenport's Quad City Times entitled Flood 2001. Flood 2001 holds a small archive of recent articles about the flood from the Quad City Times along with other regional papers, hosts an online poll about installing levees, and provides video clips (RealPlayer) and still photos of the flood. It also gives shots from a "floodcam" poised along the banks of the Mississippi. The next few resources house hydrologic data. The US Geological Survey (USGS) posts real-time water data online (4). The plain-text data from all states can be accessed via a clickable map or from lists by state or by station. The National Weather Service's Quad Cities division (the "quad cities" of Davenport, Bettendorf, Moline, and Rock Island straddle the Mississippi River on the Illinois-Iowa border) provides graphs of flood stages of rivers and streams (selected using a clickable map) and real-time weather conditions, forecasts, and flood warnings online (5). Readers will probably encounter the term "100 Year Flood" while reading flood news and stage data. If you are unfamiliar with this term, which refers to the estimated probability that a flood event has a one-in-one hundred chance of occurrence in any given year, this site (7) from an environmental consulting firm gives a nice explanation of the term and its uses. Another educational site comes from the International Rivers Network. About Rivers and Dams (8), gives an overview of the function of dams (for flood control, power generation, water collection) and presents the environmental case against damming of rivers. Other sites related to the environmental impacts of flood control include Cadillac Desert (9), a supplement to the award-winning PBS documentary series on water and the control of nature, and the Powell Consortium (10), a network of research institutions dealing with water management in the arid American West. Another neat site from PBS Online is the supplement to the film "American Experience: Fatal Flood" (11), documenting the 1927 flooding of the Mississippi and its impacts on residents of Greenville, MS. The Fatal Flood site features video clips and interviews with survivors of the 1927 flood.

  11. Flood-inundation maps for the Hoosic River, North Adams and Williamstown, Massachusetts, from the confluence with the North Branch Hoosic River to the Vermont State line

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lombard, Pamela J.; Bent, Gardner C.

    2015-01-01

    The availability of the flood-inundation maps, combined with information regarding current (near real-time) stage from USGS streamgage Hoosic River near Williamstown, and forecasted flood stages from the National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service will provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures, and post-flood recovery efforts. The flood-inundation maps are nonregulatory, but provide Federal, State, and local agencies and the public with estimates of the potential extent of flooding during selected peak-flow events.

  12. Flood management in a complex river basin with a real-time decision support system based on hydrological forecasts

    E-print Network

    for Environment (FOEV), Roads and Water courses Service of the Wallis Canton, Energy Service of the Wallis Canton) at each grid point over the soil #Temperature (T) at each grid point at different altitudes and hp levels,...), rivers, derivations, junctions,... o Database with observed data and meteorological forecasts MINERVE

  13. Probabilistic forecasts for Decision Support at the North Central River Forecast Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Restrepo, Pedro; Buan, Steven; Connelly, Brian; DeWeese, Michael; Diamond, Laura; Ellis, Larry; Goering, Dustin; Holz, Andrea; Husaby, James; Merrigan, Douglas; Palmer, Justin; Pokorny, Daniel; Reckel, Holly; Sites, William; Stockhaus, Scott; Thornburg, Jonathon; Wavrin, Robert.; Ziemer, Mark

    2013-04-01

    The North Central River Forecast Center (NCRFC) of the US National Weather Service has the responsibility for issuing river forecasts at 426 points over an area of nearly 890,000 km2, covering the Upper Mississippi river basin, the US watersheds flowing to lakes Superior, Huron and Michigan, and rivers flowing from the US to the Hudson Bay in Canada. The NCRFC issues probabilistic outlook forecasts at all its forecast points starting on December. While focused primarily on the risks associated with flooding during the spring snow melt down, the RFC frequently issues probabilistic forecasts to deal with water resources operations during drought times. This presentation will focus on probabilistic forecasts issued to assess flooding risk at Red River of the North , to support navigation operations on the Mississippi river during drought conditions, and on support of reservoir operations for hydropower generation and recreation. The presentation will discuss the improvements over the current practice that will be possible to achieve once the NWS Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasting System is put into operations later this year.

  14. Table of Contents Page 2National High Magnetic Field Laboratory and Its Forecasted Impact on the Florida Economy

    E-print Network

    Weston, Ken

    Impact on the Florida Economy History and Evaluation of the Economic Impact of the Magnet Lab Forecasted Impact on the Florida Economy The National Science Foundation (NSF) awarded the National High generated by Magnet Lab activities across the broader statewide economy. Since 1990, the Magnet Lab has

  15. Flooding and Schools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Clearinghouse for Educational Facilities, 2011

    2011-01-01

    According to the Federal Emergency Management Agency, flooding is the nation's most common natural disaster. Some floods develop slowly during an extended period of rain or in a warming trend following a heavy snow. Flash floods can occur quickly, without any visible sign of rain. Catastrophic floods are associated with burst dams and levees,…

  16. Configuring the HYSPLIT Model for National Weather Service Forecast Office and Spaceflight Meteorology Group Applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dreher, Joseph G.

    2009-01-01

    For expedience in delivering dispersion guidance in the diversity of operational situations, National Weather Service Melbourne (MLB) and Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) are becoming increasingly reliant on the PC-based version of the HYSPLIT model run through a graphical user interface (GUI). While the GUI offers unique advantages when compared to traditional methods, it is difficult for forecasters to run and manage in an operational environment. To alleviate the difficulty in providing scheduled real-time trajectory and concentration guidance, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) configured a Linux version of the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) (HYSPLIT) model that ingests the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) guidance, such as the North American Mesoscale (NAM) and the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) models. The AMU configured the HYSPLIT system to automatically download the NCEP model products, convert the meteorological grids into HYSPLIT binary format, run the model from several pre-selected latitude/longitude sites, and post-process the data to create output graphics. In addition, the AMU configured several software programs to convert local Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model output into HYSPLIT format.

  17. Development of flood index by characterisation of flood hydrographs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhattacharya, Biswa; Suman, Asadusjjaman

    2015-04-01

    In recent years the world has experienced deaths, large-scale displacement of people, billions of Euros of economic damage, mental stress and ecosystem impacts due to flooding. Global changes (climate change, population and economic growth, and urbanisation) are exacerbating the severity of flooding. The 2010 floods in Pakistan and the 2011 floods in Australia and Thailand demonstrate the need for concerted action in the face of global societal and environmental changes to strengthen resilience against flooding. Due to climatological characteristics there are catchments where flood forecasting may have a relatively limited role and flood event management may have to be trusted upon. For example, in flash flood catchments, which often may be tiny and un-gauged, flood event management often depends on approximate prediction tools such as flash flood guidance (FFG). There are catchments fed largely by flood waters coming from upstream catchments, which are un-gauged or due to data sharing issues in transboundary catchments the flow of information from upstream catchment is limited. Hydrological and hydraulic modelling of these downstream catchments will never be sufficient to provide any required forecasting lead time and alternative tools to support flood event management will be required. In FFG, or similar approaches, the primary motif is to provide guidance by synthesising the historical data. We follow a similar approach to characterise past flood hydrographs to determine a flood index (FI), which varies in space and time with flood magnitude and its propagation. By studying the variation of the index the pockets of high flood risk, requiring attention, can be earmarked beforehand. This approach can be very useful in flood risk management of catchments where information about hydro-meteorological variables is inadequate for any forecasting system. This paper presents the development of FI and its application to several catchments including in Kentucky in the USA, Oc-gok Basin in Republic of Korea and the haor region of Bangladesh. Keywords: flood index, flood risk management, flood characteristics

  18. Weather: National | Victoria | NSW | ACT | Queensland | South Aus | Western Aus | Nthn. Territory | Tasmania FLOOD WARNING SYSTEM

    E-print Network

    Greenslade, Diana

    | Tasmania FLOOD WARNING SYSTEM for the UPPER BRISBANE RIVER ABOVE WIVENHOE DAM This brochure describes the flood warning system operated by the Bureau of Meteorology for the upper Brisbane River above Wivenhoe Dam. It includes reference information which will be useful for understanding Flood Warnings and River

  19. Department of Energy award DE-SC0004164 Climate and National Security: Securing Better Forecasts

    SciTech Connect

    Reno Harnish

    2011-08-16

    The Climate and National Security: Securing Better Forecasts symposium was attended by senior policy makers and distinguished scientists. The juxtaposition of these communities was creative and fruitful. They acknowledged they were speaking past each other. Scientists were urged to tell policy makers about even improbable outcomes while articulating clearly the uncertainties around the outcomes. As one policy maker put it, we are accustomed to making these types of decisions. These points were captured clearly in an article that appeared on the New York Times website and can be found with other conference materials most easily on our website, www.scripps.ucsd.edu/cens/. The symposium, generously supported by the NOAA/JIMO, benefitted the public by promoting scientifically informed decision making and by the transmission of objective information regarding climate change and national security.

  20. Ensemble stream flow predictions using the ECMWF forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kiczko, Adam; Romanowicz, Renata; Osuch, Marzena; Pappenberger, Florian; Karamuz, Emilia

    2015-04-01

    Floods and low flows in rivers are seasonal phenomena that can cause several problems to society. To anticipate high and low flow events, flow forecasts are crucial. They are of particular importance in mountainous catchments, where the lead time of forecasts is usually short. In order to prolong the forecast lead-time, numerical weather predictions (NWPs) are used as a hydrological model driving force. The forecasted flow is commonly given as one value, even though it is uncertain. There is an increasing interest in accounting for the uncertainty in flood early warning and decision support systems. When NWP are given in the form of ensembles, such as the ECMWF forecasts, the uncertainty of these forecasts can be accounted for. Apart from the forecast uncertainty the uncertainty related to the hydrological model used also plays an important role in the uncertainty of the final flow prediction. The aim of this study is the development of a stream flow prediction system for the Bia?a Tarnowska, a mountainous catchment in the south of Poland. We apply two different hydrological models. One is a conceptual HBV model for rainfall-flow predictions, applied within a Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) framework, the second is a data-based DBM model, adjusted for Polish conditions by adding the Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) and snow-melt modules. Both models provide the uncertainty of the predictions, but the DBM approach is much more numerically efficient, therefore more suitable for the real-time forecasting.. The ECMWF forecasts require bias reduction in order to correspond to observations. Therefore we applied Quantile Mapping with and without seasonal adjustment for bias correction. Up to seven-days ahead forecast skills are compared using the Relative Operation Characteristic (ROC) graphs, for the flood warning and flood alarm flow value thresholds. The ECMWF forecasts are obtained from the project TIGGE (http://www.ecmwf.int/en/research/projects/tigge) to prolong the lead time of the forecasts downstream. Both hydrological models show different performances when forced with raw and de-biased ECMWF ensembles. This work was partly supported by the project "Stochastic flood forecasting system (The River Vistula reach from Zawichost to Warsaw)" carried out by the Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences by order of the National Science Centre (contract No. 2011/01/B/ST10/06866). The rainfall and flow data were provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Poland.

  1. Supplementing flash flood reports with impact classifications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calianno, Martin; Ruin, Isabelle; Gourley, Jonathan J.

    2013-01-01

    SummaryIn recent years, there has been an increase in flash flood impacts, even as our ability to forecast events and warn areas at risk increases. This increase results from a combination of extreme events and the exposure of vulnerable populations. The issues of exposure and vulnerability to flash floods are not trivial because environmental circumstances in such events are specific and complex enough to challenge the general understanding of natural risks. Therefore, it seems essential to consider physical processes of flash floods concurrently with the impacts they trigger. This paper takes a first step in addressing this need by creating and testing the coherence of an impact-focused database based on two pre-existing public and expert-based survey datasets: the Severe Hazards Analysis and Verification Experiment (SHAVE) and the US National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Data. The SHAVE initiative proposes a new method for collecting near-real-time high-resolution observations on both environmental circumstances and their disastrous consequences (material and human losses) to evaluate radar-based forecasting tools. Forecast verification tools and methods are needed to pursue improving the spatial and temporal accuracy of forecasts. Nevertheless by enhancing SHAVE and NWS datasets with socially and spatially relevant information, we aim at improving future forecast ability to predict the amount and types of impacts. This paper describes the procedures developed to classify and rank the impacts from the least to the most severe, then to verify the coherence and relevance of the impact-focused SHAVE dataset via cross-tabulation analysis of reported variables and GIS-sampled spatial characteristics. By crossing impact categories with socio-spatial characteristics, this analysis showed first benchmarks for the use of exposure layers in future flash flood impact forecasting models. The enhanced impact-focused datasets were used to test the capabilities of flash flood forecasting tools in predicting different categories of impacts for two extreme cases of flash flooding in Oklahoma, USA. Results showed a general tendency for the more severe impacts to be associated to higher mean exceedances over tool values. This means that, at least for these particular case studies, the tools were able to make a distinction between less severe and more severe impacts. Finally, a critical analysis of the NWS and SHAVE data collection methodologies was completed and challenges for future work were identified.

  2. A Novel Hydro-information System for Improving National Weather Service River Forecast System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nan, Z.; Wang, S.; Liang, X.; Adams, T. E.; Teng, W. L.; Liang, Y.

    2009-12-01

    A novel hydro-information system has been developed to improve the forecast accuracy of the NOAA National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS). An MKF-based (Multiscale Kalman Filter) spatial data assimilation framework, together with the NOAH land surface model, is employed in our system to assimilate satellite surface soil moisture data to yield improved evapotranspiration. The latter are then integrated into the distributed version of the NWSRFS to improve its forecasting skills, especially for droughts, but also for disaster management in general. Our system supports an automated flow into the NWSRFS of daily satellite surface soil moisture data, derived from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System (AMSR-E), and the forcing information of the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). All data are custom processed, archived, and supported by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data Information and Services Center (GES DISC). An optional data fusing component is available in our system, which fuses NEXRAD Stage III precipitation data with the NLDAS precipitation data, using the MKF-based framework, to provide improved precipitation inputs. Our system employs a plug-in, structured framework and has a user-friendly, graphical interface, which can display, in real-time, the spatial distributions of assimilated state variables and other model-simulated information, as well as their behaviors in time series. The interface can also display watershed maps, as a result of the integration of the QGIS library into our system. Extendibility and flexibility of our system are achieved through the plug-in design and by an extensive use of XML-based configuration files. Furthermore, our system can be extended to support multiple land surface models and multiple data assimilation schemes, which would further increase its capabilities. Testing of the integration of the current system into the NWSRFS is ongoing.

  3. Hydrologic ensemble hindcasting and verification in the U.S. National Weather Service

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Julie Demargne; Yuqiong Liu; James Brown; Dong-Jun Seo; Limin Wu; Albrecht Weerts; Micha Werner

    2010-01-01

    Quantifying the predictive uncertainty in hydrologic forecasts is one of the most pressing needs in operational hydrologic forecasting, to support risk-based decision making for a wide range of applications (e.g. flood risk management, water supply management, streamflow regulation, and recreation planning). Towards this goal, the Office of Hydrologic Development of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service

  4. Necessity of Flood Early Warning Systems in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kurian, C.; Natesan, U.; Durga Rao, K. H. V.

    2014-12-01

    India is one of the highly flood prone countries in the world. National flood commission has reported that 400,000 km² of geographical area is prone to floods, constituting to twelve percent of the country's geographical area. Despite the reoccurrences of floods, India still does not have a proper flood warning system. Probably this can be attributed to the lack of trained personnel in using advanced techniques. Frequent flood hazards results in damage to livelihood, infrastructure and public utilities. India has a potential to develop an early warning system since it is one of the few countries where satellite based inputs are regularly used for monitoring and mitigating floods. However, modeling of flood extent is difficult due to the complexity of hydraulic and hydrologic processes during flood events. It has been reported that numerical methods of simulations can be effectively used to simulate the processes correctly. Progress in computational resources, data collection and development of several numerical codes has enhanced the use of hydrodynamic modeling approaches to simulate the flood extent in the floodplains. In this study an attempt is made to simulate the flood in one of the sub basins of Godavari River in India using hydrodynamic modeling techniques. The modeling environment includes MIKE software, which simulates the water depth at every grid cell of the study area. The runoff contribution from the catchment was calculated using Nebdor Afstromnings model. With the hydrodynamic modeling approach, accuracy in discharge and water level computations are improved compared to the conventional methods. The results of the study are proming to develop effective flood management plans in the basin. Similar studies could be taken up in other flood prone areas of the country for continuous modernisation of flood forecasting techniques, early warning systems and strengthening decision support systems, which will help the policy makers in developing management plans and policies.

  5. Statistical Journal of the United Nations ECE 23 (2006) 110 1 New forecast: Population decline postponed

    E-print Network

    Løw, Erik

    2006-01-01

    than the earlier forecasts did. Hence, we find that population decline is postponed in our forecast and lower mortality than that predicted by the UN and Eurostat. Hence, the population decline will happen forecast: Population decline postponed in Europe in terms of probability distributions, thus quantifying

  6. Flood Frequency Analysis

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    2014-09-14

    The Flood Frequency Analysis module offers an introduction to the use of flood frequency analysis for flood prediction and planning. Through use of rich illustrations, animations, and interactions, this module explains the basic concepts, underlying issues, and methods for analyzing flood data. Common concepts such as the 100-year flood and return periods as well as issues affecting the statistical representation of floods are discussed. Common flood data analysis methods as well as an overview of design events are also covered. As a foundation topic for the Basic Hydrologic Science course, this module may be taken on its own, but it will also be available as a supporting topic providing factual scientific information to support students in completion of the case-based forecasting modules.

  7. National plans for aircraft icing and improved aircraft icing forecasts and associated warning services

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pass, Ralph P.

    1988-01-01

    Recently, the United States has increased its activities related to aircraft icing in numerous fields: ice phobics, revised characterization of icing conditions, instrument development/evaluation, de-ice/anti-ice devices, simulated supercooled clouds, computer simulation and flight tests. The Federal Coordinator for Meteorology is involved in two efforts, one a National Plan on Aircraft Icing and the other a plan for Improved Aircraft Icing Forecasts and Associated Warning Services. These two plans will provide an approved structure for future U.S. activities related to aircraft icing. The recommended activities will significantly improve the position of government agencies to perform mandated activities and to enable U.S. manufacturers to be competitive in the world market.

  8. The August 2002 flood in Salzburg / Austria experience gained and lessons learned from the ``Flood of the century''?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wiesenegger, H.

    2003-04-01

    On the {12th} of August 2002 a low pressure system moved slowly from northern Italy towards Slovakia. It continuously carried moist air from the Mediterranean towards the northern rim of the Alps with the effect of wide-spread heavy rainfall in Salzburg and other parts of Austria. Daily precipitation amounts of 100 - 160 mm, in some parts even more, as well as rainfall intensities of 5 - 10 mm/h , combined with well saturated soils lead to a rare flood with a return period of 100 years and more. This rare hydrological event not only caused a national catastrophe with damages of several Billion Euro, but also endangered more than 200,000 people, and even killed some. As floods are dangerous, life-threatening, destructive, and certainly amongst the most frequent and costly natural disasters in terms of human hardship as well as economic loss, a great effort, therefore, has to be made to protect people against negative impacts of floods. In order to achieve this objective, various regulations in land use planning (flood maps), constructive measurements (river regulations and technical constructions) as well as flood warning systems, which are not suitable to prevent big floods, but offer in-time-warnings to minimize the loss of human lives, are used in Austria. HYDRIS (Hydrological Information System for flood forecasting in Salzburg), a modular river basin model, developed at Technical University Vienna and operated by the Hydrological Service of Salzburg, was used during the August 2002 flood providing accurate 3 to 4 hour forecasts within 3 % of the real peak discharge of the fast flowing River Salzach. The August {12^th}} flood was in many ways an exceptional, very fast happening event which took many people by surprise. At the gauging station Salzburg / Salzach (catchment area 4425 {km^2}) it took only eighteen hours from mean annual discharge (178 {m3/s}) to the hundred years flood (2300 {m3/s}). The August flood made clear, that there is a strong need for longer lead times in Salzburg's flood forecasts. Methods to incorporate precipitation forecasts, provided by the Met Office, as well as observations of actual soil conditions, therefore, have to be developed and should enable hydrologists to predict possible scenarios and impacts of floods, forecasted for the next 24 hours. As a further consequence of the August 2002 flood, building regulations, e.g. the use of oil tanks in flood prone areas, have to be checked and were necessary adapted. It is also necessary to make people, who already live in flood prone areas, aware of the dangers of floods. They also need to know about the limits of flood protection measurements and about what happens, if flood protection design values are exceeded. Alarm plans, dissemination of information by using modern communication systems (Internet) as well as communication failure in peak times and co-ordination of rescue units are also a subject to be looked at carefully. The above mentioned measurements are amongst others of a 10 point program, developed by the Government of the Province of Salzburg and at present checked with regards to feasibility. As it is to be expected, that the August 2002 flood was not the last rare one of this century, experience gained should be valuably for the next event.

  9. Flood-inundation maps for the Suncook River in Epsom, Pembroke, Allenstown, and Chichester, New Hampshire

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Flynn, Robert H.; Johnston, Craig M.; Hays, Laura

    2012-01-01

    Digital flood-inundation maps for a 16.5-mile reach of the Suncook River in Epsom, Pembroke, Allenstown, and Chichester, N.H., from the confluence with the Merrimack River to U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Suncook River streamgage 01089500 at Depot Road in North Chichester, N.H., were created by the USGS in cooperation with the New Hampshire Department of Homeland Security and Emergency Management. The inundation maps presented in this report depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage at Suncook River at North Chichester, N.H. (station 01089500). The current conditions at the USGS streamgage may be obtained on the Internet (http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nh/nwis/uv/?site_no=01089500&PARAmeter_cd=00065,00060). The National Weather Service forecasts flood hydrographs at many places that are often collocated with USGS streamgages. Forecasted peak-stage information is available on the Internet at the National Weather Service (NWS) Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) flood-warning system site (http://water.weather.gov/ahps/) and may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. These maps along with real-time stream stage data from the USGS Suncook River streamgage (station 01089500) and forecasted stream stage from the NWS will provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood-response activities, such as evacuations, road closures, disaster declarations, and post-flood recovery. The maps, along with current stream-stage data from the USGS Suncook River streamgage and forecasted stream-stage data from the NWS, can be accessed at the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/.

  10. Evaluating National Weather Service Seasonal Forecast Products in Reservoir Operation Case Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nielson, A.; Guihan, R.; Polebistki, A.; Palmer, R. N.; Werner, K.; Wood, A. W.

    2014-12-01

    Forecasts of future weather and streamflow can provide valuable information for reservoir operations and water management. A challenge confronting reservoir operators today is how to incorporate both climate and streamflow products into their operations and which of these forecast products are most informative and useful for optimized water management. This study incorporates several reforecast products provided by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) which allows a complete retrospective analysis of climate forecasts, resulting in an evaluation of each product's skill in the context of water resources management. The accuracy and value of forecasts generated from the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) are compared to the accuracy and value of using an Ensemble Streamflow Predictions (ESP) approach. Using the CFSv2 may offer more insight when responding to climate driven extremes than the ESP approach because the CFSv2 incorporates a fully coupled climate model into its forecasts rather than using all of the historic climate record as being equally probable. The role of forecast updating frequency will also be explored. Decision support systems (DSS) for both Salt Lake City Parley's System and the Snohomish County Public Utility Department's (SnoPUD) Jackson project will be used to illustrate the utility of forecasts. Both DSS include a coupled simulation and optimization model that will incorporate system constraints, operating policies, and environmental flow requirements. To determine the value of the reforecast products, performance metrics meaningful to the managers of each system are to be identified and quantified. Without such metrics and awareness of seasonal operational nuances, it is difficult to identify forecast improvements in meaningful ways. These metrics of system performance are compared using the different forecast products to evaluate the potential benefits of using CFSv2 seasonal forecasts in systems decision making.

  11. Development of flood-inundation maps for the West Branch Susquehanna River near the Borough of Jersey Shore, Lycoming County, Pennsylvania

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Roland, Mark A.; Hoffman, Scott A.

    2011-01-01

    Streamflow data, water-surface-elevation profiles derived from a Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System hydraulic model, and geographical information system digital elevation models were used to develop a set of 18 flood-inundation maps for an approximately 5-mile reach of the West Branch Susquehanna River near the Borough of Jersey Shore, Pa. The inundation maps were created by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Susquehanna River Basin Commission and Lycoming County as part of an ongoing effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service to focus on continued improvements to the flood forecasting and warning abilities in the Susquehanna River Basin and to modernize flood-forecasting methodologies. The maps, ranging from 23.0 to 40.0 feet in 1-foot increments, correspond to river stage at the U.S. Geological Survey streamgage 01549760 at Jersey Shore. The electronic files used to develop the maps were provided to the National Weather Service for incorporation into their Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service website. The maps are displayed on this website, which serves as a web-based floodwarning system, and can be used to identify areas of predicted flood inundation associated with forecasted flood-peak stages. During times of flooding or predicted flooding, these maps can be used by emergency managers and the public to take proactive steps to protect life and reduce property damage caused by floods.

  12. The FASTER Approach: A New Tool for Calculating Real-Time Tsunami Flood Hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilson, R. I.; Cross, A.; Johnson, L.; Miller, K.; Nicolini, T.; Whitmore, P.

    2014-12-01

    In the aftermath of the 2010 Chile and 2011 Japan tsunamis that struck the California coastline, emergency managers requested that the state tsunami program provide more detailed information about the flood potential of distant-source tsunamis well ahead of their arrival time. The main issue is that existing tsunami evacuation plans call for evacuation of the predetermined "worst-case" tsunami evacuation zone (typically at a 30- to 50-foot elevation) during any "Warning" level event; the alternative is to not call an evacuation at all. A solution to provide more detailed information for secondary evacuation zones has been the development of tsunami evacuation "playbooks" to plan for tsunami scenarios of various sizes and source locations. To determine a recommended level of evacuation during a distant-source tsunami, an analytical tool has been developed called the "FASTER" approach, an acronym for factors that influence the tsunami flood hazard for a community: Forecast Amplitude, Storm, Tides, Error in forecast, and the Run-up potential. Within the first couple hours after a tsunami is generated, the National Tsunami Warning Center provides tsunami forecast amplitudes and arrival times for approximately 60 coastal locations in California. At the same time, the regional NOAA Weather Forecast Offices in the state calculate the forecasted coastal storm and tidal conditions that will influence tsunami flooding. Providing added conservatism in calculating tsunami flood potential, we include an error factor of 30% for the forecast amplitude, which is based on observed forecast errors during recent events, and a site specific run-up factor which is calculated from the existing state tsunami modeling database. The factors are added together into a cumulative FASTER flood potential value for the first five hours of tsunami activity and used to select the appropriate tsunami phase evacuation "playbook" which is provided to each coastal community shortly after the forecast is provided.

  13. 78 FR 52780 - National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP); Assistance to Private Sector Property Insurers...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-08-26

    ...Insurance Program (NFIP); Assistance to Private Sector Property Insurers, Availability...Arrangement (Arrangement) to notify private insurance companies (Companies) and...Arrangement), 85 (as of June 2013) private sector property insurers sell flood...

  14. 77 FR 36566 - National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP); Assistance to Private Sector Property Insurers...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-06-19

    ...Insurance Program (NFIP); Assistance to Private Sector Property Insurers, Availability...Arrangement (Arrangement) to notify private insurance companies (Companies) and...Arrangement), 82 (as of April, 2012) private sector property insurers sell flood...

  15. 76 FR 45281 - National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP); Assistance to Private Sector Property Insurers...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-07-28

    ...Insurance Program (NFIP); Assistance to Private Sector Property Insurers, Availability...Arrangement (Arrangement) to notify private insurance companies (Companies) and...Arrangement), 87 (as of July 1, 2011) private sector property insurers issue flood...

  16. 75 FR 42766 - National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP); Assistance to Private Sector Property Insurers...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-07-22

    ...Insurance Program (NFIP); Assistance to Private Sector Property Insurers, Availability...Arrangement (Arrangement) to notify private insurance companies (Companies) and...Arrangement), (90 as of June 1, 2010) private sector property insurers issue flood...

  17. 44 CFR Appendix B to Part 62 - National Flood Insurance Program

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ...guarantor of flood insurance coverage for WYO policies issued under the WYO Arrangement. To account for and ensure appropriate spending of any taxpayer funds, the WYO companies and we will implement this Financial Control Plan (Plan). Only the Federal...

  18. 44 CFR Appendix B to Part 62 - National Flood Insurance Program

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ...guarantor of flood insurance coverage for WYO policies issued under the WYO Arrangement. To account for and ensure appropriate spending of any taxpayer funds, the WYO companies and we will implement this Financial Control Plan (Plan). Only the Federal...

  19. 44 CFR Appendix B to Part 62 - National Flood Insurance Program

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ...guarantor of flood insurance coverage for WYO policies issued under the WYO Arrangement. To account for and ensure appropriate spending of any taxpayer funds, the WYO companies and we will implement this Financial Control Plan (Plan). Only the Federal...

  20. 44 CFR Appendix B to Part 62 - National Flood Insurance Program

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ...guarantor of flood insurance coverage for WYO policies issued under the WYO Arrangement. To account for and ensure appropriate spending of any taxpayer funds, the WYO companies and we will implement this Financial Control Plan (Plan). Only the Federal...

  1. American National Standard: for determining design basis flooding at power-reactor sites

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1981-02-17

    This document presents a standard to establish design basis flooding for nuclear safety-related features at power reactor sites. Methodology is described to evaluate the flood having virtually no risk of exceedance that may be caused by: precipitation and snowmelt and any resulting dam failures; seismically induced dam failures; surge or seiche and attendant wind-generated wave activity; or a reasonable combination of these events.

  2. Flash Flood Processes

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    2014-09-14

    According to NOAA’s National Weather Service, a flash flood is a life-threatening flood that begins within 6 hours--and often within 3 hours--of a causative event. That causative event can be intense rainfall, the failure of a dam, levee, or other structure that is impounding water, or the sudden rise of water level associated with river ice jams. The “Flash Flood Processes” module offers an introduction to the distinguishing features of flash floods, the underlying hydrologic influences and the use of flash flood guidance (FFG) products. Through use of rich illustrations, animations, and interactions, this module explains the differences between flash floods and general floods and examines the hydrologic processes that impact flash flooding risk. In addition, it provides an introduction to the use of flash flood guidance (FFG) products including derivation from ThreshR and rainfall-runoff curves as well as current strengths and limitations.

  3. Use of High-Resolution Precipitation Products Derived from the Weather Research and Forecasting Model to Drive GIS-Based Hydrological Flood Inundation Modeling; Effects of Rainfall Error on Flood Accuracy

    Microsoft Academic Search

    M. R. Knebl

    2005-01-01

    This paper addresses research into a new approach that couples precipitation predictions with GIS applications and hydrological modeling to predict flood potential and thus mitigate the impacts of these natural disasters in Texas. Flooding induced from storm events is a major concern in many regions of the world, including Texas, which receives extreme precipitation events numerous times annually. The goal

  4. Sediment capture in flood plains of the Mississippi River: A case study in Cat Island National Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, M.; Bentley, S. J., Sr.

    2015-03-01

    To plan restoration of the Mississippi River Delta, it is imperative to know how much sediment the Mississippi River currently provides. Recent research has demonstrated that between Tarbert Landing and St Francisville on the Mississippi, as much as 67 million metric tons (Mt) per year is lost from river transport, of which ~16 Mt is muddy suspended sediment. So where does this sediment go? Two pathways for loss have been proposed: riverbed storage, and overbank deposition in regions that lack manmade levées. Cat Island National Wildlife Refuge, on the unleveed Mississippi River east bank near St Francisville, Louisiana, consists of undisturbed bottomland forest that is inundated most years by river flooding. To determine fluvial sediment accumulation rates (SAR) from flooding, pushcores 40-50 cm long were collected then dated by Pb-210 and Cs-137 geochronology. Preliminary data suggests that muddy sediment accumulation is 10-13% of muddy suspended sediment lost from river transport along this river reach.

  5. Weather Forecasting

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    John Nielsen-Gammon

    1996-09-01

    Weather Forecasting is a set of computer-based learning modules that teach students about meteorology from the point of view of learning how to forecast the weather. The modules were designed as the primary teaching resource for a seminar course on weather forecasting at the introductory college level (originally METR 151, later ATMO 151) and can also be used in the laboratory component of an introductory atmospheric science course. The modules assume no prior meteorological knowledge. In addition to text and graphics, the modules include interactive questions and answers designed to reinforce student learning. The module topics are: 1. How to Access Weather Data, 2. How to Read Hourly Weather Observations, 3. The National Collegiate Weather Forecasting Contest, 4. Radiation and the Diurnal Heating Cycle, 5. Factors Affecting Temperature: Clouds and Moisture, 6. Factors Affecting Temperature: Wind and Mixing, 7. Air Masses and Fronts, 8. Forces in the Atmosphere, 9. Air Pressure, Temperature, and Height, 10. Winds and Pressure, 11. The Forecasting Process, 12. Sounding Diagrams, 13. Upper Air Maps, 14. Satellite Imagery, 15. Radar Imagery, 16. Numerical Weather Prediction, 17. NWS Forecast Models, 18. Sources of Model Error, 19. Sea Breezes, Land Breezes, and Coastal Fronts, 20. Soundings, Clouds, and Convection, 21. Snow Forecasting.

  6. Flood analysis along the Little Missouri River within and adjacent to Theodore Roosevelt National Park, North Dakota

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Emerson, D.G.; Macek-Rowland, Kathleen

    1986-01-01

    The Little Missouri River flows through Theodore Roosevelt National Park, which consists of three separate units: South Unit, Elkhorn Ranch Site, and North Unit. The park is located in the Little Missouri badlands. Discharges and water surface elevations for 100 yr or 500 yr floods or both were computed for selected reaches along the Little Missouri River and three of its tributaries (Knutson Creek, Paddock Creek, and Squaw Creek) within and adjacent to Theodore Roosevelt National Park. The 100-yr flood discharge determined for the Little Missouri River South Unit reach was 65,300 cu ft/sec; the discharge determined for the Little Missouri River Elkhorn Ranch Site reach was 69 ,000 cu ft/sec; and the discharge determined for the Little Missouri River North Unit reach was 78,800 cu ft/sec. A multiple regression equation based on drainage area and infiltration index was used in the flood flow frequency analysis for the creeks. The 100 yr flood discharge determined for Knutson Creek reach was 31,800 cu ft/sec; the discharge determined for Paddock Creek reach was 18,500 cu ft/sec; and the discharge determined for Squaw Creek reach was 24,600 cu ft/sec. Cross-sectional data were obtained by field surveys. Water surface elevations were computed using step-backwater methods. Streamflow records for two stations on the Little Missouri River were used to develop maximum observed backwater envelope curves and elevation frequency curves. The maximum observed backwater envelope curves show a trend in which the backwater decreases as the discharge increases. The backwater due to ice approaches zero before reaching the computed elevations for the 100 yr discharges. (Lantz-PTT)

  7. Flooding and Flood Risks

    MedlinePLUS

    ... based on a number of factors: rainfall, river-flow and tidal-surge data, topography, flood-control measures, and changes due to building and development. Flood-hazard maps have been created to show different degrees of ...

  8. Using constructed analogs to improve the skill of National Multi-Model Ensemble March–April–May precipitation forecasts in equatorial East Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shukla, Shraddhanand; Funk, Christopher; Hoell, Andrew

    2014-09-01

    In this study we implement and evaluate a simple ‘hybrid’ forecast approach that uses constructed analogs (CA) to improve the National Multi-Model Ensemble’s (NMME) March–April–May (MAM) precipitation forecasts over equatorial eastern Africa (hereafter referred to as EA, 2°S to 8°N and 36°E to 46°E). Due to recent declines in MAM rainfall, increases in population, land degradation, and limited technological advances, this region has become a recent epicenter of food insecurity. Timely and skillful precipitation forecasts for EA could help decision makers better manage their limited resources, mitigate socio-economic losses, and potentially save human lives. The ‘hybrid approach’ described in this study uses the CA method to translate dynamical precipitation and sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts over the Indian and Pacific Oceans (specifically 30°S to 30°N and 30°E to 270°E) into terrestrial MAM precipitation forecasts over the EA region. In doing so, this approach benefits from the post-1999 teleconnection that exists between precipitation and SSTs over the Indian and tropical Pacific Oceans (Indo-Pacific) and EA MAM rainfall. The coupled atmosphere-ocean dynamical forecasts used in this study were drawn from the NMME. We demonstrate that while the MAM precipitation forecasts (initialized in February) skill of the NMME models over the EA region itself is negligible, the ranked probability skill score of hybrid CA forecasts based on Indo-Pacific NMME precipitation and SST forecasts reach up to 0.45.

  9. Development of flood-inundation maps for the Mississippi River in Saint Paul, Minnesota

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Czuba, Christiana R.; Fallon, James D.; Lewis, Corby R.; Cooper, Diane F.

    2014-01-01

    Digital flood-inundation maps for a 6.3-mile reach of the Mississippi River in Saint Paul, Minnesota, were developed through a multi-agency effort by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and in collaboration with the National Weather Service. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the U.S. Geological Survey Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/ and the National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service site at http://water.weather.gov/ahps/inundation.php, depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the U.S. Geological Survey streamgage at the Mississippi River at Saint Paul (05331000). The National Weather Service forecasted peak-stage information at the streamgage may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. In this study, flood profiles were computed for the Mississippi River by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The hydraulic model was calibrated using the most recent stage-discharge relation at the Robert Street location (rating curve number 38.0) of the Mississippi River at Saint Paul (streamgage 05331000), as well as an approximate water-surface elevation-discharge relation at the Mississippi River at South Saint Paul (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers streamgage SSPM5). The model also was verified against observed high-water marks from the recent 2011 flood event and the water-surface profile from existing flood insurance studies. The hydraulic model was then used to determine 25 water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-foot intervals ranging from approximately bankfull stage to greater than the highest recorded stage at streamgage 05331000. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model, derived from high-resolution topography data, to delineate potential areas flooded and to determine the water depths within the inundated areas for each stage at streamgage 05331000. The availability of these maps along with information regarding current stage at the U.S. Geological Survey streamgage and forecasted stages from the National Weather Service provides enhanced flood warning and visualization of the potential effects of a forecasted flood for the city of Saint Paul and its residents. The maps also can aid in emergency management planning and response activities, such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for post-flood recovery efforts.

  10. Flow ensemble prediction for flash flood warnings at ungauged basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Demargne, Julie; Javelle, Pierre; Organde, Didier; Caseri, Angelica; Ramos, Maria-Helena; de Saint Aubin, Céline; Jurdy, Nicolas

    2015-04-01

    Flash floods, which are typically triggered by severe rainfall events, are difficult to monitor and predict at the spatial and temporal scales of interest due to large meteorological and hydrologic uncertainties. In particular, uncertainties in quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) and quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) need to be taken into account to provide skillful flash flood warnings with increased warning lead time. In France, the AIGA discharge-threshold flood warning system is currently being enhanced to ingest high-resolution ensemble QPFs from convection-permitting numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, as well as probabilistic QPEs, to improve flash flood warnings for small-to-medium (from 10 to 1000 km²) ungauged basins. The current deterministic AIGA system is operational in the South of France since 2005. It ingests the operational radar-gauge QPE grids from Météo-France to run a simplified hourly distributed hydrologic model at a 1-km² resolution every 15 minutes (Javelle et al. 2014). This produces real-time peak discharge estimates along the river network, which are subsequently compared to regionalized flood frequency estimates of given return periods. Warnings are then provided to the French national hydro-meteorological and flood forecasting centre (SCHAPI) and regional flood forecasting offices, based on the estimated severity of ongoing events. The calibration and regionalization of the hydrologic model has been recently enhanced to implement an operational flash flood warning system for the entire French territory. To quantify the QPF uncertainty, the COSMO-DE-EPS rainfall ensembles from the Deutscher Wetterdienst (20 members at a 2.8-km resolution for a lead time of 21 hours), which are available on the North-eastern part of France, were ingested in the hydrologic model of the AIGA system. Streamflow ensembles were produced and probabilistic flash flood warnings were derived for the Meuse and Moselle river basins and for significant events of the 2010-2013 period. The evaluation showed significant improvements in terms of flash flood event detection and effective warning lead-time, compared to warnings from the current AIGA setup (without any future precipitation). Various verification metrics (e.g., Relative Mean Error, Continuous Rank Probability Skill Score) show the skill of ensemble precipitation and flow forecasts compared to single-valued persistency benchmarks. In addition to propagating the QPF uncertainty to streamflow forecasts, we discuss how to account for other sources of forecast uncertainty, including precipitation observational uncertainty (Caseri et al. 2014) and hydrologic uncertainties. Planned enhancements include ingesting other probabilistic nowcast and NWP products from Météo-France's convection-permitting AROME model, as well as developing comprehensive observational and post-event damage database to determine decision-relevant thresholds for flood magnitude and probability. Caseri, A., Javelle, P., Ramos, M.H., Leblois, E., 2014. Generating precipitation ensembles for flood alert and risk management. Journal of Flood Risk Management (submitted). Javelle, P., Demargne, J., Defrance, D., Arnaud, P., 2014. Evaluating flash flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system. Hydrological Sciences Journal. doi: 10.1080/02626667.2014.923970

  11. Floods: The Awesome Power

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    2002-01-01

    A newly released publication from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Weather Service, and the Red Cross is entitled "Floods: The Awesome Power." The citizen-focused sixteen-page preparedness guide explains "flood-related hazards and suggests life-saving actions you can take." Readers will learn what flash floods are, what to do if youâ??re caught in your vehicle during a flash flood, what river floods are, how tropical cyclones create floods, where to get current weather information, what your local community can do to be more prepared for floods, and much more. The graphics rich and non-technical publication with its potentially life-saving information is definitely worth a read.

  12. Probability Forecasting in Meteorology

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Allan H. Murphy; Robert L. Winkler

    1984-01-01

    Efforts to quantify the uncertainty in weather forecasts began more than 75 years ago, and many studies and experiments involving objective and subjective probability forecasting have been conducted in meteorology in the intervening period. Moreover, the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) initiated a nationwide program in 1965 in which precipitation probability forecasts were formulated on an operational basis and routinely

  13. Development of Multisensor Precipitation Nowcaster in the National Weather Service

    Microsoft Academic Search

    S. Guan; R. Fulton; F. Ding; D. Kitzmiller

    2006-01-01

    To meet the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) objective to increase lead-time and accuracy of flash flood forecasts, the NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) Office of Hydrologic Development has developed the Multisensor Precipitation Nowcaster (MPN) algorithm based on its Flash Flood Potential algorithm. In contrast to many existing nowcast algorithms that are single-radar-based, MPN integrates and mosaics data from

  14. USGS Crews Measure Historic Flooding in Fargo, ND

    USGS Multimedia Gallery

    USGS scientists Chris Laveau and Joel Galloway measure streamflow during historical flooding in Fargo, ND. This information is critical for developing flood forecasts to help protect lives and property....

  15. USGS Crews Measure Historic Flooding in Fargo, ND

    USGS Multimedia Gallery

    USGS scientists Chris Laveau and Joel Galloway measure streamflow during historical flooding in Fargo, ND. This information is critical for developing flood forecasts to help protect lives and property. ...

  16. Flood management benefits of USGS streamgaging program

    E-print Network

    Fleskes, Joe

    Flood management benefits of USGS streamgaging program October 19, 2006 National Hydrologic Warning ................................................................................................................. 6 What are the information needs for flood management in the US?........................................ 13 What is the benefit of meeting the information need for flood management project design

  17. Hydrometeorological and climatological conditions associated with flash flooding in the Catskill Mountains, NY

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teale, N. G.; Quiring, S. M.

    2014-12-01

    Flash flooding is a concern in watersheds of the New York City Water Supply System, as the turbidity associated with rapid flooding is unacceptable in an unfiltered water supply. Previous studies suggest that flash flooding will occur more frequently in this region in a changing climate. Therefore, a thorough understanding of the conditions associated with flash flooding are important for effective watershed management. Seven flash floods were identified in the hydrologic record for the Neversink River near Claryville, NY from 1 April 1987 through 15 July 2014. Case studies using Weather Prediction Center forecast maps, National Centers for Environmental Prediction/ National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis daily composites, and co-operative station data were used to characterize each event. Forecast maps indicate synoptic-scale frontal activity concurrent with all flash flood events. The four winter flash flood peaks are associated with rain on existing snowpack, with anomalously warm 1000 mb temperatures and anomalously high precipitation rates. The three summer flash flood peaks are associated with convective activity, high precipitation rates, anomalously warm 1000 mb temperatures, and southerly winds. NCEP/NCAR climate composites for winter and summer flash flood events are consistent with the case studies presented. The frequency of these broad-scale conditions suggest that localized effects of the basin conditions separate flash flood events from other high discharge events. Recognizing these conditions in the context of climate predictions is useful for effective and proactive water management in the region to maintain an unfiltered water supply for the greater New York City area.

  18. Flood-inundation maps for the Mississinewa River at Marion, Indiana, 2013

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coon, William F.

    2014-01-01

    Digital flood-inundation maps for a 9-mile (mi) reach of the Mississinewa River from 0.75 mi upstream from the Pennsylvania Street bridge in Marion, Indiana, to 0.2 mi downstream from State Route 15 were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Indiana Office of Community and Rural Affairs. The flood inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation, depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage on the Mississinewa River at Marion (station number 03326500). Near-real-time stages at this streamgage may be obtained on the Internet from the USGS National Water Information System at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ or the National Weather Service (NWS) Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http://water.weather.gov/ahps/, which also forecasts flood hydrographs at this site. Flood profiles were computed for the stream reach by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The model was calibrated by using the current stage-discharge relation at the Mississinewa River streamgage, in combination with water-surface profiles from historic floods and from the current (2002) flood-insurance study for Grant County, Indiana. The hydraulic model was then used to compute seven water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-fo (ft) intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from 10 ft, which is near bankfull, to 16 ft, which is between the water levels associated with the estimated 10- and 2-percent annual exceedance probability floods (floods with recurrence interval between 10 and 50 years) and equals the “major flood stage” as defined by the NWS. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a Geographic Information System digital elevation model (derived from light detection and ranging (lidar) data having a 0.98 ft vertical accuracy and 4.9 ft horizontal resolution) to delineate the area flooded at each water level. The availability of these maps, along with Internet information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgage and forecasted high-flow stages from the NWS, will provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for post-flood recovery efforts.

  19. 44 CFR 78.6 - Flood Mitigation Plan approval process.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ...Assistance 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Flood Mitigation Plan approval process. 78.6 Section...SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program FLOOD MITIGATION ASSISTANCE § 78.6 Flood...

  20. 44 CFR 78.6 - Flood Mitigation Plan approval process.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ...Assistance 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Flood Mitigation Plan approval process. 78.6 Section...SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program FLOOD MITIGATION ASSISTANCE § 78.6 Flood...

  1. 44 CFR 78.6 - Flood Mitigation Plan approval process.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ...Assistance 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Flood Mitigation Plan approval process. 78.6 Section...SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program FLOOD MITIGATION ASSISTANCE § 78.6 Flood...

  2. 44 CFR 78.6 - Flood Mitigation Plan approval process.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ...Assistance 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Flood Mitigation Plan approval process. 78.6 Section...SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program FLOOD MITIGATION ASSISTANCE § 78.6 Flood...

  3. 44 CFR 78.6 - Flood Mitigation Plan approval process.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ...Assistance 1 2012-10-01 2011-10-01 true Flood Mitigation Plan approval process. 78.6 Section...SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program FLOOD MITIGATION ASSISTANCE § 78.6 Flood...

  4. FLOOD PROOFING How to Evaluate Your Options

    E-print Network

    US Army Corps of Engineers

    FLOOD PROOFING How to Evaluate Your Options Decision Tree us Army Corps of £nqineer';:. -- - - . · r Flood ~ro~~IJ NATIONAL FLOOD PROOFING COMMITTEE July 1993 #12;PREFACE FLOOD PROOFING - How TO EVALUATE YOUR OPTIONS This document has been prepared to help answer the question, "Should flood proofing

  5. Flash Flood Processes: International Edition

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    COMET

    2011-02-22

    Flash floods can occur in nearly any area of the world. A rainfall-induced flash flood is a truly hydrometeorological event: one that depends on both hydrologic and meteorological conditions. Forecasting flash floods involves a detailed understanding of the local hydrologic features and continual monitoring of the current meteorological situation. This module examines both the hydrologic and meteorological processes that often contribute to the development of flash flooding. Common tools and technologies that are used in flash flood monitoring and forecasting, from manual gauging systems to complex radar- and satellite-based runoff models, are explored. This module also examines the strengths and limitations of these technologies, as well as how they are likely to advance in the future.

  6. Forecasting distributional responses of limber pine to climate change at management-relevant scales in Rocky Mountain National Park.

    PubMed

    Monahan, William B; Cook, Tammy; Melton, Forrest; Connor, Jeff; Bobowski, Ben

    2013-01-01

    Resource managers at parks and other protected areas are increasingly expected to factor climate change explicitly into their decision making frameworks. However, most protected areas are small relative to the geographic ranges of species being managed, so forecasts need to consider local adaptation and community dynamics that are correlated with climate and affect distributions inside protected area boundaries. Additionally, niche theory suggests that species' physiological capacities to respond to climate change may be underestimated when forecasts fail to consider the full breadth of climates occupied by the species rangewide. Here, using correlative species distribution models that contrast estimates of climatic sensitivity inferred from the two spatial extents, we quantify the response of limber pine (Pinus flexilis) to climate change in Rocky Mountain National Park (Colorado, USA). Models are trained locally within the park where limber pine is the community dominant tree species, a distinct structural-compositional vegetation class of interest to managers, and also rangewide, as suggested by niche theory. Model forecasts through 2100 under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5 W/m(2)) show that the distribution of limber pine in the park is expected to move upslope in elevation, but changes in total and core patch area remain highly uncertain. Most of this uncertainty is biological, as magnitudes of projected change are considerably more variable between the two spatial extents used in model training than they are between RCPs, and novel future climates only affect local model predictions associated with RCP 8.5 after 2091. Combined, these results illustrate the importance of accounting for unknowns in species' climatic sensitivities when forecasting distributional scenarios that are used to inform management decisions. We discuss how our results for limber pine may be interpreted in the context of climate change vulnerability and used to help guide adaptive management. PMID:24391742

  7. Severe Flooding in India

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    Floods devestated parts of eastern India along the Brahmaputra River in June 2000. In some tributaries of the Brahmaputra, the water reached more than 5 meters (16.5 feet) above flood stage. At least 40 residents died, and the flood waters destroyed a bridge linking the region to the rest of India. High water also threatened endangered Rhinos in Kaziranga National Park. Flooded areas are shown in red in the above image. The map was derived from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data taken on June 15, 2000. For more information on observing floods with satellites, see: Using Satellites to Keep our Head above Water and the Dartmouth Flood Observatory Image by the Dartmouth Flood Observatory

  8. Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy

    SciTech Connect

    Parks, K.; Wan, Y. H.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.

    2011-10-01

    The focus of this report is the wind forecasting system developed during this contract period with results of performance through the end of 2010. The report is intentionally high-level, with technical details disseminated at various conferences and academic papers. At the end of 2010, Xcel Energy managed the output of 3372 megawatts of installed wind energy. The wind plants span three operating companies1, serving customers in eight states2, and three market structures3. The great majority of the wind energy is contracted through power purchase agreements (PPAs). The remainder is utility owned, Qualifying Facilities (QF), distributed resources (i.e., 'behind the meter'), or merchant entities within Xcel Energy's Balancing Authority footprints. Regardless of the contractual or ownership arrangements, the output of the wind energy is balanced by Xcel Energy's generation resources that include fossil, nuclear, and hydro based facilities that are owned or contracted via PPAs. These facilities are committed and dispatched or bid into day-ahead and real-time markets by Xcel Energy's Commercial Operations department. Wind energy complicates the short and long-term planning goals of least-cost, reliable operations. Due to the uncertainty of wind energy production, inherent suboptimal commitment and dispatch associated with imperfect wind forecasts drives up costs. For example, a gas combined cycle unit may be turned on, or committed, in anticipation of low winds. The reality is winds stayed high, forcing this unit and others to run, or be dispatched, to sub-optimal loading positions. In addition, commitment decisions are frequently irreversible due to minimum up and down time constraints. That is, a dispatcher lives with inefficient decisions made in prior periods. In general, uncertainty contributes to conservative operations - committing more units and keeping them on longer than may have been necessary for purposes of maintaining reliability. The downside is costs are higher. In organized electricity markets, units that are committed for reliability reasons are paid their offer price even when prevailing market prices are lower. Often, these uplift charges are allocated to market participants that caused the inefficient dispatch in the first place. Thus, wind energy facilities are burdened with their share of costs proportional to their forecast errors. For Xcel Energy, wind energy uncertainty costs manifest depending on specific market structures. In the Public Service of Colorado (PSCo), inefficient commitment and dispatch caused by wind uncertainty increases fuel costs. Wind resources participating in the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) footprint make substantial payments in the real-time markets to true-up their day-ahead positions and are additionally burdened with deviation charges called a Revenue Sufficiency Guarantee (RSG) to cover out of market costs associated with operations. Southwest Public Service (SPS) wind plants cause both commitment inefficiencies and are charged Southwest Power Pool (SPP) imbalance payments due to wind uncertainty and variability. Wind energy forecasting helps mitigate these costs. Wind integration studies for the PSCo and Northern States Power (NSP) operating companies have projected increasing costs as more wind is installed on the system due to forecast error. It follows that reducing forecast error would reduce these costs. This is echoed by large scale studies in neighboring regions and states that have recommended adoption of state-of-the-art wind forecasting tools in day-ahead and real-time planning and operations. Further, Xcel Energy concluded reduction of the normalized mean absolute error by one percent would have reduced costs in 2008 by over $1 million annually in PSCo alone. The value of reducing forecast error prompted Xcel Energy to make substantial investments in wind energy forecasting research and development.

  9. Improving flash flood forecasting through coupling of a distributed hydrologic rainfall-runoff model (HL-RDHM) with a hydraulic model (BreZo)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nguyen, P.; Sorooshian, S.; Hsu, K.; AghaKouchak, A.; Sanders, B. F.; Smith, M. B.; Koren, V.

    2012-12-01

    Flash floods can be the most devastating events causing heavy life and economic losses. Improving flash flood warning in regions prone to hydrologic extremes is one highest priority of watershed managers. In this study, a distributed flash flood modeling system is presented. This system consists of advantages of a distributed hydrologic model (HL-RDHM) and the appropriate level of physical representation of channel flow through a high-resolution hydraulic model (BreZo). HL-RDHM is employed as a rainfall-runoff generator for runoff flow simulation, while the output from HL-RDHM is then used as input for the BreZo model, which simulates fine resolution flow in the river/channel system. The surface runoff generated from HL-RDHM is zoned to sub-catchment outlets and each outlet is considered as a point source to the channels. Multiple point sources are then simulated within BreZo to produce flash flood simulations in spatial and temporal distribution for the particular river/channel system and/or floodplain. A case study was carried out for ELDO2 catchment in Oklahoma. ArcGIS Terrain Processing tools were used to divide ELDO2 (10m resolution) into sub-catchments with outlets. The surface flow from HL-RDHM was re-gridded to 10m resolution, then zoned to the 57 sub-catchments. The results obtained are very promising not only for better simulating the total discharge at the watershed outlet, but also for capturing the spatial distribution of flooded area in the floodplains. Flooded map of ELDO2 (in meters) during the extreme event starting at 06/21/2000 10:00:00

  10. An expanded model: flood-inundation maps for the Leaf River at Hattiesburg, Mississippi, 2013

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Storm, John B.

    2014-01-01

    Digital flood-inundation maps for a 6.8-mile reach of the Leaf River at Hattiesburg, Mississippi (Miss.), were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the City of Hattiesburg, City of Petal, Forrest County, Mississippi Emergency Management Agency, Mississippi Department of Homeland Security, and the Emergency Management District. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/, depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage at Leaf River at Hattiesburg, Miss. (station no. 02473000). Current conditions for estimating near-real-time areas of inundation by use of USGS streamgage information may be obtained on the Internet at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/. In addition, the information has been provided to the National Weather Service (NWS) for incorporation into their Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) flood warning system (http://water.weather.gov/ahps/). The NWS forecasts flood hydrographs at many places that are often colocated with USGS streamgages. NWS-forecasted peak-stage information may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. In this study, flood profiles were computed for the stream reach by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The model was calibrated by using the most current stage-discharge relations at the Leaf River at Hattiesburg, Miss. streamgage (02473000) and documented high-water marks from recent and historical floods. The hydraulic model was then used to determine 13 water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1.0-foot intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from bankfull to approximately the highest recorded water level at the streamgage. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system (GIS) digital elevation model (DEM, derived from light detection and ranging (lidar) data having a 0.6-foot vertical and 9.84-foot horizontal resolution) in order to delineate the area flooded at each water level. Development of the estimated flood inundation maps as described in this report update previously published inundation estimates by including reaches of the Bouie and Leaf Rivers above their confluence. The availability of these maps along with Internet information regarding current stage from USGS streamgages and forecasted stream stages from the NWS provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures as well as for post flood recovery efforts.

  11. Weather forecast needs from the viewpoint of hydrology

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thomas, Donald M.; Buchanan, Thomas J.

    1980-01-01

    Hydrologists now depend on directly observed data in their forecasting and only infrequently use meteorological forecasts. Case studies show how reliable meteorological forecasts could be beneficial in flood and drought situations. Hydrologists need meteorological forecasts that recognize spatial variability, that are unbiased, and that have a specified degree of uncertainty. (USGS)

  12. Transition of Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) Data Products for Operational Weather Forecasting Applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, M. R.; Fuell, K.; Molthan, A.; Jedlovec, G.

    2012-12-01

    The launch of the Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) satellite provides new and exciting opportunities for the application of remotely sensed data products in operational weather forecasting environments. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center in Huntsville, Alabama is a NASA and NOAA-funded project to assist with the transition of experimental and research products to the operational weather community through partnership with NOAA/National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices (NWS WFOs) throughout the United States. This presentation will provide the S-NPP community with an update on current and future SPoRT projects related to the dissemination of S-NPP derived data to NWS WFOs and highlight unique applications and value of data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), specifically applications of high resolution visible and infrared data, uses of the day-night (or near constant contrast) band, and multispectral composites. Other applications are envisioned through use of selected channels of the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS), the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS), and the Ozone Mapper Profiler Suite (OMPS). This presentation will also highlight opportunities for future collaboration with SPoRT and activities planned for participation in the NOAA Joint Polar Satellite Program (JPSS) Proving Ground.

  13. Namibian Flood Early Warning SensorWeb Pilot

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mandl, Daniel; Policelli, Fritz; Frye, Stuart; Cappelare, Pat; Langenhove, Guido Van; Szarzynski, Joerg; Sohlberg, Rob

    2010-01-01

    The major goal of the Namibia SensorWeb Pilot Project is a scientifically sound, operational trans-boundary flood management decision support system for Southern African region to provide useful flood and waterborne disease forecasting tools for local decision makers. The Pilot Project established under the auspices of: Namibian Ministry of Agriculture Water and Forestry (MAWF), Department of Water Affairs; Committee on Earth Observing Satellites (CEOS), Working Group on Information Systems and Services (WGISS); and moderated by the United Nations Platform for Space-based Information for Disaster Management and Emergency Response (UN-SPIDER). The effort consists of identifying and prototyping technology which enables the rapid gathering and dissemination of both space-based and ground sensor data and data products for the purpose of flood disaster management and water-borne disease management.

  14. River Floods

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    Smoothstone

    This shockwave tool combines animations, text, and simulations in order to teach about floods. Topics addressed in the module include the shape of drainage basins, discharge rates, deposition, runoff, flood frequency, and related issues. Finally, the module allows the user to generate a flood and test different flood control techniques to see how a variety of conditions affect flooding.

  15. Rainfall-River Forecasting Fusion Team Rainfall-River Forecasting Summit

    E-print Network

    US Army Corps of Engineers

    1 Rainfall-River Forecasting Fusion Team Rainfall-River Forecasting Summit St. Paul, MN Monday, Oct 19, 2009 #12;2 Created as a 2008 Midwest Flood after-action from the Rainfall-River Forecasting Summit (Oct 2008) Main area of focus, Mississippi River Basin Member Agencies - USACE, USGS, NWS USACE

  16. Improvements in fast-response flood modeling: desktop parallel computing and domain tracking

    SciTech Connect

    Judi, David R [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Mcpherson, Timothy N [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Burian, Steven J [UNIV. OF UTAH

    2009-01-01

    It is becoming increasingly important to have the ability to accurately forecast flooding, as flooding accounts for the most losses due to natural disasters in the world and the United States. Flood inundation modeling has been dominated by one-dimensional approaches. These models are computationally efficient and are considered by many engineers to produce reasonably accurate water surface profiles. However, because the profiles estimated in these models must be superimposed on digital elevation data to create a two-dimensional map, the result may be sensitive to the ability of the elevation data to capture relevant features (e.g. dikes/levees, roads, walls, etc...). Moreover, one-dimensional models do not explicitly represent the complex flow processes present in floodplains and urban environments and because two-dimensional models based on the shallow water equations have significantly greater ability to determine flow velocity and direction, the National Research Council (NRC) has recommended that two-dimensional models be used over one-dimensional models for flood inundation studies. This paper has shown that two-dimensional flood modeling computational time can be greatly reduced through the use of Java multithreading on multi-core computers which effectively provides a means for parallel computing on a desktop computer. In addition, this paper has shown that when desktop parallel computing is coupled with a domain tracking algorithm, significant computation time can be eliminated when computations are completed only on inundated cells. The drastic reduction in computational time shown here enhances the ability of two-dimensional flood inundation models to be used as a near-real time flood forecasting tool, engineering, design tool, or planning tool. Perhaps even of greater significance, the reduction in computation time makes the incorporation of risk and uncertainty/ensemble forecasting more feasible for flood inundation modeling (NRC 2000; Sayers et al. 2000).

  17. A methodology for urban flood resilience assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lhomme, Serge; Serre, Damien; Diab, Youssef; Laganier, Richard

    2010-05-01

    In Europe, river floods have been increasing in frequency and severity [Szöllösi-Nagy and Zevenbergen, 2005]. Moreover, climate change is expected to exacerbate the frequency and intensity of hydro meteorological disaster [IPCC, 2007]. Despite efforts made to maintain the flood defense assets, we often observe levee failures leading to finally increase flood risk in protected area. Furthermore, flood forecasting models, although benefiting continuous improvements, remain partly inaccurate due to uncertainties arising all along data calculation processes. In the same time, the year 2007 marks a turning point in history: half of the world population now lives in cities (UN-Habitat, 2007). Moreover, the total urban population is expected to double from two to four billion over the next 30 to 35 years (United Nations, 2006). This growing rate is equivalent to the creation of a new city of one million inhabitants every week, and this during the next four decades [Flood resilience Group]. So, this quick urban development coupled with technical failures and climate change have increased flood risk and corresponding challenges to urban flood risk management [Ashley et al., 2007], [Nie et al., 2009]. These circumstances oblige to manage flood risk by integrating new concepts like urban resilience. In recent years, resilience has become a central concept for risk management. This concept has emerged because a more resilient system is less vulnerable to risk and, therefore, more sustainable [Serre et al., 2010]. But urban flood resilience is a concept that has not yet been directly assessed. Therefore, when decision makers decide to use the resilience concept to manage urban flood, they have no tool to help them. That is why this paper proposes a methodology to assess urban flood resilience in order to make this concept operational. Networks affect the well-being of the people and the smooth functioning of services and, more generally, of economical activities. Yet, multiple networks that innervate the city are particularly sensitive to flooding, through their structures and geographic constraints. Because societal functions are highly dependent on networked systems and the operability of these systems can be vulnerable to disasters, there is a need to understand how networked systems are resilient. That is why, considering that networks can be regarded as the "flood gateway" [Lhomme et al., 2009], we will focus on the resilience assessment of these critical networks before urban resilience assessment. The first part of this paper introduce resilience concept to well understand the importance of this concept to manage flood risk and of assessing this resilience. In a second part, this paper presents the use of safety methods to model network system dysfunctions during flood and then to produce resilience indicators. Finally it presents use of graph theory to assess adaptive capacity of these networks. These researches are the first steps toward the development of a GIS tool to optimize preparedness and recovery after a flood event.

  18. Scientific developments within the Global Flood Partnership

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Groeve, Tom; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Thielen, Jutta

    2015-04-01

    More than 90 scientists, end users, and decision makers in the field of flood forecasting, remote sensing, hazard and risk assessment and emergency management collaborate in the Global Flood Partnership (GFP). The Partnership, launched in 2014, aims at the development of flood observational and modelling infrastructure, leveraging on existing initiatives for better predicting and managing flood disaster impacts and flood risk globally. Scientists collaborate in the GFP in different pillars, respectively focused on (1) development of tools and systems for global flood monitoring (Flood Toolbox), (2) applying the tools for publishing near real-time impact-based flood awareness information (Flood Observatory), and (3) collecting flood maps and impact information in a distributed database (Flood Record). The talk will focus on concrete collaboration results in 2014 and 2015, showing the added value of collaborating under a partnership. These include an overview of 10 services, 5 tools (algorithms or software) and 4 datasets related to global flood forecasting and observation. Through the various results (on interoperability, standards, visualization, integration and system design of integrated systems), it will be shown that a user-centric approach can lead to effective uptake of research results, rapid prototype development and experimental services that fill a gap in global flood response.

  19. Flood-inundation maps for the North Branch Elkhart River at Cosperville, Indiana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kim, Moon H.; Johnson, Esther M.

    2014-01-01

    Digital flood-inundation maps for a reach of the North Branch Elkhart River at Cosperville, Indiana (Ind.), were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Detroit District. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/ depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at USGS streamgage 04100222, North Branch Elkhart River at Cosperville, Ind. Current conditions for estimating near-real-time areas of inundation using USGS streamgage information may be obtained on the Internet at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/in/nwis/uv?site_no=04100222. In addition, information has been provided to the National Weather Service (NWS) for incorporation into their Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) flood warning system (http:/water.weather.gov/ahps/). The NWS AHPS forecasts flood hydrographs at many places that are often colocated with USGS streamgages, including the North Branch Elkhart River at Cosperville, Ind. NWS AHPS-forecast peak-stage information may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. For this study, flood profiles were computed for the North Branch Elkhart River reach by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The hydraulic model was calibrated by using the most current stage-discharge relations at USGS streamgage 04100222, North Branch Elkhart River at Cosperville, Ind., and preliminary high-water marks from the flood of March 1982. The calibrated hydraulic model was then used to determine four water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-foot intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from bankfull to the highest stage of the current stage-discharge rating curve. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system (GIS) digital elevation model (DEM, derived from Light Detection and Ranging [LiDAR]) in order to delineate the area flooded at each water level. The availability of these maps, along with Internet information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgage 04100222, North Branch Elkhart River at Cosperville, Ind., and forecast stream stages from the NWS AHPS, provides emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for post-flood recovery efforts.

  20. Flood-inundation maps for the Tippecanoe River near Delphi, Indiana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Menke, Chad D.; Bunch, Aubrey R.; Kim, Moon H.

    2013-01-01

    Digital flood-inundation maps for an 11-mile reach of the Tippecanoe River that extends from County Road W725N to State Road 18 below Oakdale Dam, Indiana (Ind.), were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Indiana Department of Transportation. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/, depict estimates of the areal extent of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at USGS streamgage 03333050, Tippecanoe River near Delphi, Ind. Current conditions at the USGS streamgages in Indiana may be obtained online at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/in/nwis/current/?type=flow. In addition, the information has been provided to the National Weather Service (NWS) for incorporation into their Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) flood warning system (http://water.weather.gov/ahps/). The NWS forecasts flood hydrographs at many places that are often co-located at USGS streamgages. That forecasted peak-stage information, also available on the Internet, may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. In this study, water-surface profiles were simulated for the stream reach by means of a hydraulic one-dimensional step-backwater model. The model was calibrated by using the most current stage-discharge relation at USGS streamgage 03333050, Tippecanoe River near Delphi, Ind., and USGS streamgage 03332605, Tippecanoe River below Oakdale Dam, Ind. The hydraulic model was then used to simulate 13 water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-foot intervals reference to the streamgage datum and ranging from bankfull to approximately the highest recorded water level at the streamgage. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model (derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data) in order to delineate the area flooded at each water level. A flood inundation map was generated for each water-surface profile stage (13 maps in all) so that, for any given flood stage, users will be able to view the estimated area of inundation. The availability of these maps, along with current stage from USGS streamgages and forecasted stream stages from the NWS, provides emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for post-flood recovery efforts.

  1. 44 CFR 73.4 - Restoration of flood insurance coverage.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ...2010-10-01 false Restoration of flood insurance coverage. 73.4 Section...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IMPLEMENTATION OF SECTION 1316 OF THE NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE ACT OF 1968 § 73.4...

  2. 44 CFR 73.4 - Restoration of flood insurance coverage.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ...2011-10-01 false Restoration of flood insurance coverage. 73.4 Section...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IMPLEMENTATION OF SECTION 1316 OF THE NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE ACT OF 1968 § 73.4...

  3. 44 CFR 73.4 - Restoration of flood insurance coverage.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ...2014-10-01 false Restoration of flood insurance coverage. 73.4 Section...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IMPLEMENTATION OF SECTION 1316 OF THE NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE ACT OF 1968 § 73.4...

  4. 44 CFR 73.4 - Restoration of flood insurance coverage.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ...2013-10-01 false Restoration of flood insurance coverage. 73.4 Section...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IMPLEMENTATION OF SECTION 1316 OF THE NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE ACT OF 1968 § 73.4...

  5. Flood Impacts

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    Flooding causes more deaths and damage than any other hydro meteorological phenomena. The Weather Service provides statistics on flood-related impacts: flood fatalities by year from present to 1903; flood damage, including kinds and value of damage, annually from present to l903. Other features include: reports of current flood watches and warnings, outlooks for impending flooding, hydrologic conditions, and links to climate information and Weather Service offices.

  6. 44 CFR 67.3 - Establishment and maintenance of a flood elevation determination docket (FEDD).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... false Establishment and maintenance of a flood elevation determination docket (FEDD). ...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program APPEALS FROM PROPOSED FLOOD ELEVATION DETERMINATIONS § 67.3...

  7. 44 CFR 67.3 - Establishment and maintenance of a flood elevation determination docket (FEDD).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... false Establishment and maintenance of a flood elevation determination docket (FEDD). ...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program APPEALS FROM PROPOSED FLOOD ELEVATION DETERMINATIONS § 67.3...

  8. 44 CFR 67.3 - Establishment and maintenance of a flood elevation determination docket (FEDD).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... false Establishment and maintenance of a flood elevation determination docket (FEDD). ...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program APPEALS FROM PROPOSED FLOOD ELEVATION DETERMINATIONS § 67.3...

  9. 44 CFR 67.3 - Establishment and maintenance of a flood elevation determination docket (FEDD).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... false Establishment and maintenance of a flood elevation determination docket (FEDD). ...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program APPEALS FROM PROPOSED FLOOD ELEVATION DETERMINATIONS § 67.3...

  10. 44 CFR 67.3 - Establishment and maintenance of a flood elevation determination docket (FEDD).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... true Establishment and maintenance of a flood elevation determination docket (FEDD). ...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program APPEALS FROM PROPOSED FLOOD ELEVATION DETERMINATIONS § 67.3...

  11. Current Usage and Future Prospects of Multispectral (RGB) Satellite Imagery in Support of NWS Forecast Offices and National Centers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Molthan, Andrew; Fuell, Kevin; Knaff, John; Lee, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    What is an RGB Composite Image? (1) Current and future satellite instruments provide remote sensing at a variety of wavelengths. (2) RGB composite imagery assign individual wavelengths or channel differences to the intensities of the red, green, and blue components of a pixel color. (3) Each red, green, and blue color intensity is related to physical properties within the final composite image. (4) Final color assignments are therefore related to the characteristics of image pixels. (5) Products may simplify the interpretation of data from multiple bands by displaying information in a single image. Current Products and Usage: Collaborations between SPoRT, CIRA, and NRL have facilitated the use and evaluation of RGB products at a variety of NWS forecast offices and National Centers. These products are listed in table.

  12. Estimating monetary damages from flooding under a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wobus, C. W.; Lawson, M.; Smith, J. B.; Jones, R.; Morlando, S.

    2011-12-01

    Extreme precipitation events will very likely become both more frequent and more extreme under a changing climate. It follows that monetary damages from flooding are also likely to increase; yet translating forecast changes in precipitation to changes in flood damages becomes increasingly difficult as the spatial scale of analysis increases. Our goal was to develop a method for estimating changes in monetary damages from flooding under a changing climate at the national scale. To do this, we compiled precipitation and flood damage data from the 99 ASRs in the continental U.S. (a spatial scale intermediate between 4-digit and 2-digit HUCs), and used statistical modeling to quantify relationships between these variables at the scale of the 18 water resource regions (WRRs) in the U.S. Data on flood damages were obtained from the National climatic Data Center (NCDC) storms database, for the years 1993-2008. Each entry in the database includes the date on which the flood occurred; the county in which it occurred; and the crop damage, property damage, and total damage in dollars associated with the flood event. All dollar values were updated to 2007 dollars using annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) values. Counties were matched to corresponding ASRs, from which all available precipitation station data were downloaded for the same period. A logistic regression model was then used to model the probability of a flood exceeding a specified magnitude of monetary damages, by WRR. Independent variables in the model included the median precipitation across the ASR on that day, the standard deviation of precipitation in the ASR on that day, the total 1-day, 3-day, and 5-day precipitation in the ASR (measured as the sum of precipitation at all stations on the previous days), the season, and the interaction of season with median, standard deviation, and total 1-, 3-, and 5-day precipitation. Separate models were estimated for each WRR under baseline conditions, and flood damages under future climates were then modeled using a range of future precipitation scenarios. The models generally show a positive relationship between median and total precipitation and the probability of a damaging flood occurring. Seasonality also plays a very significant role, although this varies substantially across WRRs. Preliminary results indicate that monetary damages from floods are likely to increase in nearly all regions of the United States, but that changes in damages are not uniformly distributed across the nation.

  13. Hydrologic Simulation in Mediterranean flood prone Watersheds using high-resolution quality data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eirini Vozinaki, Anthi; Alexakis, Dimitrios; Pappa, Polixeni; Tsanis, Ioannis

    2015-04-01

    Flooding is a significant threat causing lots of inconveniencies in several societies, worldwide. The fact that the climatic change is already happening, increases the flooding risk, which is no longer a substantial menace to several societies and their economies. The improvement of spatial-resolution and accuracy of the topography and land use data due to remote sensing techniques could provide integrated flood inundation simulations. In this work hydrological analysis of several historic flood events in Mediterranean flood prone watersheds (island of Crete/Greece) takes place. Satellite images of high resolution are elaborated. A very high resolution (VHR) digital elevation model (DEM) is produced from a GeoEye-1 0.5-m-resolution satellite stereo pair and is used for floodplain management and mapping applications such as watershed delineation and river cross-section extraction. Sophisticated classification algorithms are implemented for improving Land Use/ Land Cover maps accuracy. In addition, soil maps are updated with means of Radar satellite images. The above high-resolution data are innovatively used to simulate and validate several historical flood events in Mediterranean watersheds, which have experienced severe flooding in the past. The hydrologic/hydraulic models used for flood inundation simulation in this work are HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS. The Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) curve number (CN) approach is implemented to account for the effect of LULC and soil on the hydrologic response of the catchment. The use of high resolution data provides detailed validation results and results of high precision, accordingly. Furthermore, the meteorological forecasting data, which are also combined to the simulation model results, manage the development of an integrated flood forecasting and early warning system tool, which is capable of confronting or even preventing this imminent risk. The research reported in this paper was fully supported by the "ARISTEIA II" Action ("REINFORCE" program) of the "Operational Education and Life Long Learning programme" and is co-funded by the European Social Fund (ESF) and National Resources.

  14. Cyber Surveillance for Flood Disasters

    PubMed Central

    Lo, Shi-Wei; Wu, Jyh-Horng; Lin, Fang-Pang; Hsu, Ching-Han

    2015-01-01

    Regional heavy rainfall is usually caused by the influence of extreme weather conditions. Instant heavy rainfall often results in the flooding of rivers and the neighboring low-lying areas, which is responsible for a large number of casualties and considerable property loss. The existing precipitation forecast systems mostly focus on the analysis and forecast of large-scale areas but do not provide precise instant automatic monitoring and alert feedback for individual river areas and sections. Therefore, in this paper, we propose an easy method to automatically monitor the flood object of a specific area, based on the currently widely used remote cyber surveillance systems and image processing methods, in order to obtain instant flooding and waterlogging event feedback. The intrusion detection mode of these surveillance systems is used in this study, wherein a flood is considered a possible invasion object. Through the detection and verification of flood objects, automatic flood risk-level monitoring of specific individual river segments, as well as the automatic urban inundation detection, has become possible. The proposed method can better meet the practical needs of disaster prevention than the method of large-area forecasting. It also has several other advantages, such as flexibility in location selection, no requirement of a standard water-level ruler, and a relatively large field of view, when compared with the traditional water-level measurements using video screens. The results can offer prompt reference for appropriate disaster warning actions in small areas, making them more accurate and effective. PMID:25621609

  15. Cyber surveillance for flood disasters.

    PubMed

    Lo, Shi-Wei; Wu, Jyh-Horng; Lin, Fang-Pang; Hsu, Ching-Han

    2015-01-01

    Regional heavy rainfall is usually caused by the influence of extreme weather conditions. Instant heavy rainfall often results in the flooding of rivers and the neighboring low-lying areas, which is responsible for a large number of casualties and considerable property loss. The existing precipitation forecast systems mostly focus on the analysis and forecast of large-scale areas but do not provide precise instant automatic monitoring and alert feedback for individual river areas and sections. Therefore, in this paper, we propose an easy method to automatically monitor the flood object of a specific area, based on the currently widely used remote cyber surveillance systems and image processing methods, in order to obtain instant flooding and waterlogging event feedback. The intrusion detection mode of these surveillance systems is used in this study, wherein a flood is considered a possible invasion object. Through the detection and verification of flood objects, automatic flood risk-level monitoring of specific individual river segments, as well as the automatic urban inundation detection, has become possible. The proposed method can better meet the practical needs of disaster prevention than the method of large-area forecasting. It also has several other advantages, such as flexibility in location selection, no requirement of a standard water-level ruler, and a relatively large field of view, when compared with the traditional water-level measurements using video screens. The results can offer prompt reference for appropriate disaster warning actions in small areas, making them more accurate and effective. PMID:25621609

  16. Flood-inundation maps for the Iroquois River at Rensselaer, Indiana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fowler, Kathleen K.; Bunch, Aubrey R.

    2013-01-01

    Digital flood-inundation maps for a 4.0-mile reach of the Iroquois River at Rensselaer, Indiana (Ind.), were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Indiana Department of Transportation. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/, depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at USGS streamgage 05522500, Iroquois River at Rensselaer, Ind. Current conditions for estimating near-real-time areas of inundation using USGS streamgage information may be obtained on the Internet at (http://waterdata.usgs.gov/in/nwis/uv?site_no=05522500). In addition, the National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts flood hydrographs at the Rensselaer streamgage. That forecasted peak-stage information, also available on the Internet (http://water.weather.gov/ahps/), may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. For this study, flood profiles were computed for the Iroquois River reach by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The hydraulic model was calibrated by using the most current (June 27, 2012) stage-discharge relations at USGS streamgage 05522500, Iroquois River at Rensselaer, Ind., and high-water marks from the flood of July 2003. The calibrated hydraulic model was then used to determine nine water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-foot intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from bankfull to the highest stage of the current stage-discharge rating curve. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a Geographic Information System digital elevation model (derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data) in order to delineate the area flooded at each water level. The availability of these maps, along with Internet information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgage at Rensselaer, Ind., and forecasted stream stages from the NWS, provides emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for post-flood recovery efforts.

  17. Flood-inundation maps for the East Fork White River near Bedford, Indiana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fowler, Kathleen K.

    2014-01-01

    Digital flood-inundation maps for an 1.8-mile reach of the East Fork White River near Bedford, Indiana (Ind.) were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Indiana Department of Transportation. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/ depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selectedwater levels (stages) at USGS streamgage 03371500, East Fork White River near Bedford, Ind. Current conditions for estimating near-real-time areas of inundation using USGS streamgage information may be obtained on the Internet at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/in/nwis/uv?site_no=03371500. In addition, information has been provided to the National Weather Service (NWS) for incorporation into their Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) flood warning system (http://water.weather.gov/ahps/). The NWS forecasts flood hydrographs at many places that are often colocated with USGS streamgages, including the East Fork White River near Bedford, Ind. NWS-forecasted peak-stage information may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. For this study, flood profiles were computed for the East Fork White River reach by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The hydraulic model was calibrated by using the most current stage-discharge relations at USGS streamgage 03371500, East Fork White River near Bedford, Ind., and documented high-water marks from the flood of June 2008. The calibrated hydraulic model was then used to determine 20 water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-foot intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from bankfull to the highest stage of the current stage-discharge rating curve. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system (GIS) digital elevation model (DEM, derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data having a 0.593-foot vertical accuracy) in order to delineate the area flooded at each water level. The availability of these maps, along with Internet information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgage near Bedford, Ind., and forecasted stream stages from the NWS, provides emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for postflood recovery eforts.

  18. Flood-inundation maps for the White River at Newberry, Indiana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fowler, Kathleen K.; Kim, Moon H.; Menke, Chad D.

    2012-01-01

    Digital flood-inundation maps for a 4.9-mile reach of the White River at Newberry, Indiana (Ind.), were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Indiana Office of Community and Rural Affairs. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation, depict estimates of the areal extent of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at USGS streamgage 03360500, White River at Newberry, Ind. Current conditions at the USGS streamgage may be obtained on the Internet (http://waterdata.usgs.gov/in/nwis/uv?site_no=03360500). The National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts flood hydrographs at the Newberry streamgage. That forecasted peak-stage information, also available on the Internet, may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. For this study, flood profiles were computed for the White River reach by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The hydraulic model was calibrated by using the most current stage-discharge relation at USGS streamgage 03360500, White River at Newberry, Ind., and high-water marks from a flood in June 2008.The calibrated hydraulic model was then used to determine 22 water-surface profiles for flood stages a1-foot intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from bankfull to approximately the highest recorded water level at the streamgage. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model (derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data) in order to delineate the area flooded at each water level. The availability of these maps, along with Internet information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgage at Newberry, Ind., and forecasted stream stages from the NWS, provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures as well as for post-flood recovery efforts.

  19. Flood Management: A simulation and gaming perspective

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Yung-Fang Chen; Edward P. Borodzicz

    While flood management is not a new phenomenon media interest into the effects has increased considerably in the past decades. Typical flood management strategies tend to be protective and dominated by engineering, scientific or technical methodologies. These include structural measures, for example, levees, floodwalls and dyke systems etc; and non-structural measures, for example, the utilization of forecasting systems, early warning

  20. Forecasting inflation

    Microsoft Academic Search

    James H. Stock; Mark W. Watson

    1999-01-01

    This paper investigates forecasts of US inflation at the 12-month horizon. The starting point is the conventional unemployment rate Phillips curve, which is examined in a simulated out-of-sample forecasting framework. Inflation forecasts produced by the Phillips curve generally have been more accurate than forecasts based on other macroeconomic variables, including interest rates, money and commodity prices. These forecasts can however

  1. Flash Flood Case Studies

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    COMET

    2007-06-26

    This module takes the learner through seven case studies of flash flood events that occurred in the conterminous U.S. between 2003 and 2006. The cases covered include: * 30-31 August 2003: Chase & Lyon Counties, KS * 16-17 September 2004: Macon County, NC * 31 July 2006: Santa Catalina Mountains near Tucson, AZ * 25 December 2003: Fire burn area near San Bernardino, CA * 30 August 2004: Urban flash flood in Richmond, VA * 19-20 August 2003: Urban flash flood in Las Vegas, NV * 9 October 2005: Cheshire County, NH This module assists the learner in applying the concepts covered in the foundation topics of the Basic Hydrologic Sciences course. Some of the specific topics pertinent to these cases are the physical characteristics that make a basin prone to flash floods, basin response to precipitation, flash flood guidance (FFG), the relationship between wildfire and flash floods, and the relationship between urban development and flash floods. Related topics brought out in the cases include radar quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE), the National Weather Service Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction (NWS FFMP) products, debris flows, impounded water, and interagency communications. The core foundation topics are recommended prerequisite materials since this module assumes some pre-existing knowledge of hydrologic principles. In particular, the Runoff Processes and Flash Flood Processes modules contain material directly related to these cases.

  2. FLOOD! Engineered Flood Controls

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    The Advanced Technology Environmental and Energy Center (ATEEC) provides this learning module on the theme of flood management. The unit "contains a variety of offerings for a unit on flood engineering controls including background information, outside resources and three learning activities." A number of activities are included which would be useful for environmental engineering students. Users must download this resource for viewing, which requires a free log-in. There is no cost to download the item. The unit is available in a ZIP file, which contains the individual lesson items.

  3. Two-dimensional simulation of the June 11, 2010, flood of the Little Missouri River at Albert Pike Recreational Area, Ouachita National Forest, Arkansas

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wagner, Daniel M.

    2013-01-01

    In the early morning hours of June 11, 2010, substantial flooding occurred at Albert Pike Recreation Area in the Ouachita National Forest of west-central Arkansas, killing 20 campers. The U.S. Forest Service needed information concerning the extent and depth of flood inundation, the water velocity, and flow paths throughout Albert Pike Recreation Area for the flood and for streamflows corresponding to annual exceedence probabilities of 1 and 2 percent. The two-dimensional flow model Fst2DH, part of the Federal Highway Administration’s Finite Element Surface-water Modeling System, and the graphical user interface Surface-water Modeling System (SMS) were used to perform a steady-state simulation of the flood in a 1.5-mile reach of the Little Missouri River at Albert Pike Recreation Area. Peak streamflows of the Little Missouri River and tributary Brier Creek served as inputs to the simulation, which was calibrated to the surveyed elevations of high-water marks left by the flood and then used to predict flooding that would result from streamflows corresponding to annual exceedence probabilities of 1 and 2 percent. The simulated extent of the June 11, 2010, flood matched the observed extent of flooding at Albert Pike Recreation Area. The mean depth of inundation in the camp areas was 8.5 feet in Area D, 7.4 feet in Area C, 3.8 feet in Areas A, B, and the Day Use Area, and 12.5 feet in Lowry’s Camp Albert Pike. The mean water velocity was 7.2 feet per second in Area D, 7.6 feet per second in Area C, 7.2 feet per second in Areas A, B, and the Day Use Area, and 7.6 feet per second in Lowry’s Camp Albert Pike. A sensitivity analysis indicated that varying the streamflow of the Little Missouri River had the greatest effect on simulated water-surface elevation, while varying the streamflow of tributary Brier Creek had the least effect. Simulated water-surface elevations were lower than those modeled by the U.S. Forest Service using the standard-step method, but the comparison between the two was favorable with a mean absolute difference of 0.58 feet in Area C and 0.32 feet in Area D. Results of a HEC-RAS model of the Little Missouri River watershed upstream from the U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station near Langley showed no difference in mean depth in the areas in common between the models, and a difference in mean velocity of only 0.5 foot per second. Predictions of flooding that would result from streamflows corresponding to annual exceedence probabilities of 1 and 2 percent indicated that the extent of inundation of the June 11, 2010, flood exceeded that of the 1 percent flood, and that for both the 1 and 2 percent floods, all of Areas C and D, and parts of Areas A, B, and the Day Use Area were inundated. Predicted water-surface elevations for the 1 and 2 percent floods were approximately 1 foot lower than those predicted by the U.S. Forest Service using a standard-step model.

  4. Belford proactive flood solutions: scientific evidence to influence local and national policy by multi-purpose runoff management

    Microsoft Academic Search

    M. Wilkinson; P. F. Quinn; J. Jonczyk

    2010-01-01

    The increased risk from flooding continues to be of concern to governments all around the world and flood protection is becoming more of a challenge. In the UK, climate change projections indicate more extremes within the weather systems. In addition, there is an increased demand for using land in urban areas beside channels. These developments both put pressure on our

  5. Potential flood and debris hazards at Katherine Landing and Telephone Cove, Lake Mead National Recreation Area, Mohave County, Arizona

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Moosburner, Otto

    1988-01-01

    Katherine Landing is a recreation site on the east shore of Lake Mohave, an impoundment on the Colorado River southeast of Las Vegas, Nevada. With proper inspection and maintenance, the present (1979) channel and diking system at Katherine Landing is judged adequate to confine and restrain floods up to and including the 100-yr flood. In contrast, the 500-yr flood probably would not be confined by some parts of the diking system. The Telephone Cove area, traversed by North and South Telephone Cove Washes, is hazardous for all floods, especially for the 100-yr and more severe floods. Determinations of peak discharge are based on streamflow regression analyses, and channel capacities are based on field surveys of channel-flow capacities. The extreme flood - a flood meteorologically and hydrologically possible but so rare as to preclude a frequency estimate - could cause great damage and possible loss of life at both the Katherine Landing and the Telephone Cove sites. The present dikes would be topped or breached by extreme flooding. (USGS)

  6. Flood-inundation maps for the West Branch Susquehanna River near the Boroughs of Lewisburg and Milton, Pennsylvania

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Roland, Mark A.; Hoffman, Scott A.

    2014-01-01

    Digital flood-inundation maps for an approximate 8-mile reach of the West Branch Susquehanna River from approximately 2 miles downstream from the Borough of Lewisburg, extending upstream to approximately 1 mile upstream from the Borough of Milton, Pennsylvania, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Susquehanna River Basin Commission (SRBC). The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/, depict the estimated areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage 01553500, West Branch Susquehanna River at Lewisburg, Pa. In addition, the information has been provided to the Susquehanna River Basin Commission (SRBC) for incorporation into their Susquehanna Inundation Map Viewer (SIMV) flood warning system (http://maps.srbc.net/simv/). The National Weather Service (NWS) forecasted peak-stage information (http://water.weather.gov/ahps) for USGS streamgage 01553500, West Branch Susquehanna River at Lewisburg, Pa., may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. In this study, flood profiles were computed for the stream reach by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. Calibration of the model was achieved using the most current stage-discharge relations (rating number 11.1) at USGS streamgage 01553500, West Branch Susquehanna River at Lewisburg, Pa., a documented water-surface profile from the December 2, 2010, flood, and recorded peak stage data. The hydraulic model was then used to determine 26 water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-foot intervals referenced to the streamgage datum ranging from 14 feet (ft) to 39 ft. Modeled flood stages, as defined by NWS, include Action Stage, 14 ft; Flood Stage, 18 ft; Moderate Flood Stage, 23 ft; and Major Flood Stage, 28 ft. Geographic information system (GIS) technology was then used to combine the simulated water-surface profiles with a digital elevation model (DEM) derived from light detection and ranging (lidar) data to delineate the area flooded at each water level. The availability of these maps, along with World Wide Web information regarding current stage from USGS streamgages and forecasted stream stages from the NWS, provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities, such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for post-flood recovery efforts.

  7. Developing and Evaluating RGB Composite MODIS Imagery for Applications in National Weather Service Forecast Offices

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Oswald, Hayden; Molthan, Andrew L.

    2011-01-01

    Satellite remote sensing has gained widespread use in the field of operational meteorology. Although raw satellite imagery is useful, several techniques exist which can convey multiple types of data in a more efficient way. One of these techniques is multispectral compositing. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed two multispectral satellite imagery products which utilize data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites, based upon products currently generated and used by the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT). The nighttime microphysics product allows users to identify clouds occurring at different altitudes, but emphasizes fog and low cloud detection. This product improves upon current spectral difference and single channel infrared techniques. Each of the current products has its own set of advantages for nocturnal fog detection, but each also has limiting drawbacks which can hamper the analysis process. The multispectral product combines each current product with a third channel difference. Since the final image is enhanced with color, it simplifies the fog identification process. Analysis has shown that the nighttime microphysics imagery product represents a substantial improvement to conventional fog detection techniques, as well as provides a preview of future satellite capabilities to forecasters.

  8. Prediflood: A French research project aiming at developing a road submersion warning system for flash flood prone areas

    Microsoft Academic Search

    J. P. Naulin; O. Payrastre; E. Gaume; G. Delrieu; P. Arnaud; C. Lutoff; B. Vincendon

    2010-01-01

    Accurate flood forecasts are crucial for an efficient flood event management. Until now, hydro-meteorological forecasts have been mainly used for early-warnings in France (Meteorological and flood vigilance maps) or over the world (Flash-flood guidances). Forecasts are also often limited to the main streams or to specific watersheds with particular assets like hydropower dams, leaving aside large parts of the territory.

  9. ENVIRONMENTAL OUTLOOK, 1977 NATIONAL, REGIONAL AND SECTORAL TRENDS AND FORECASTS 1975, 1985, 1990

    EPA Science Inventory

    This document contains projections of residuals from various energy and industrial activities which may enter the environment as an outcome of implementing the President's National Energy Plan (NEP) issued on April 29, 1977. The Strategic Environmental Assessment System (SEAS) wa...

  10. Real-time flash flood prediction system in the United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gourley, Jonathan; Flamig, Zachary; Vergara, Humberto; Clark, Robert; Kirstetter, Pierre; Terti, Galatia; Hong, Yang; Howard, Kenneth

    2015-04-01

    This study describes the Flooded Locations and Simulated Hydrographs (FLASH) project in the U.S. that has been designed to develop, evaluate, and transition the latest rainfall-driven flash flood prediction tools to the National Weather Service (NWS). The FLASH system is based on radar-based rainfall estimates from the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system, providing mosaicked rainfall rates at 1-km/2-min resolution across the conterminous U.S. Products include rainfall average recurrence intervals (ARIs), ratios of rainfall to flash flood guidance (FFG) values, and simulated streamflow ARIs from a distributed hydrologic modeling framework. NWS forecasters evaluated each of these experimental tools during the inaugural Hazardous Weather Testbed Hydrology experiment (HWT-Hydro) in the summer of 2014. In additional to a subjective evaluation from HWT-Hydro, we present findings from an objective evaluation of the distributed hydrologic modeling approaches that incorporate recent developments in a-priori parameter estimation, improvements in channel routing and model physics, model reanalysis leveraging datasets from the Multi-Year Reanalysis Of Remotely-Sensed Storms (MYRORSS) project, and error models developed for output products. FLASH skill is assessed using a very large dataset of observed flooding as measured by US Geologic Survey (USGS) stream gauges. In addition to the evaluation, this presentation will provide an overview of the latest advances in the FLASH project including forthcoming impact-specific products, probabilistic forecasts, and forcing from short-term precipitation forecasts.

  11. Analysis of institutional mechanisms that support community response to impacts of floods in the middle-zambezi river basin, Zimbabwe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muhonda, P.; Mabiza, C.; Makurira, H.; Kujinga, K.; Nhapi, I.; Goldin, J.; Mashauri, D. A.

    In recent years, the frequency of occurrence of floods has increased in Southern Africa. An increase in the frequency of extreme events is partly attributed to climate change. Floods negatively impact on livelihoods, especially those classified as poor, mainly by reducing livelihood options and also contributing to reduced crop yields. In response to these climatic events, governments within Southern Africa have formulated policies which try to mitigate the impacts of floods. Floods can be deadly, often occurring at short notice, lasting for short periods, and causing widespread damage to infrastructure. This study analysed institutional mechanisms in Mbire District of Zimbabwe which aim at mitigating the impact of floods. The study used both quantitative (i.e. questionnaires) and qualitative (i.e. key informant interviews, focus group discussions and observations) data collection methods. Secondary data such as policy and legislation documents and operational manuals of organisations that support communities affected by disasters were reviewed. Qualitative data was analysed using the thematic approach and social network analysis using UCINET 6. Quantitative data were analysed using SPSS 19.0. The study found out that there exists institutional framework that has been developed at the national and local level to support communities in the study area in response to the impacts of floods. This is supported by various pieces of legislation that are housed in different government departments. However, the existing institutional framework does not effectively strengthen disaster management mechanisms at the local level. Lack of financial resources and appropriate training and skills to undertake flood management activities reduce the capacity of communities and disaster management organisations to effectively mitigate the impacts of floods. The study also found that there are inadequate hydro-meteorological stations to enable accurate forecasts. Even in those cases where forecasts predicting extreme weather events have been made, communities have difficulties accessing and interpreting such forecasts due to inadequate communication systems. Such factors reduce the preparedness of communities to deal with extreme weather events.

  12. Flood-inundation maps for the Elkhart River at Goshen, Indiana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Strauch, Kellan R.

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Indiana Office of Community and Rural Affairs, created digital flood-inundation maps for an 8.3-mile reach of the Elkhart River at Goshen, Indiana, extending from downstream of the Goshen Dam to downstream from County Road 17. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/, depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to nine selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage at Elkhart River at Goshen (station number 04100500). Current conditions for the USGS streamgages in Indiana may be obtained on the Internet at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/. In addition, stream stage data have been provided to the National Weather Service (NWS) for incorporation into their Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) flood warning system (http://water.weather.gov/ahps/). The NWS forecasts flood hydrographs at many places that are often colocated with USGS streamgages. NWS-forecasted peak-stage information may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. In this study, flood profiles were computed for the stream reach by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The model was calibrated using the most current stage-discharge relation at the Elkhart River at Goshen streamgage. The hydraulic model was then used to compute nine water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-foot (ft) intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from approximately bankfull (5 ft) to greater than the highest recorded water level (13 ft). The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system (GIS) digital-elevation model (DEM), derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data having a 0.37-ft vertical accuracy and 3.9-ft horizontal resolution in order to delineate the area flooded at each water level. The availability of these maps, along with Internet information regarding current stage from USGS streamgages and forecasted stream stages from the NWS, provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures as well as for postflood recovery efforts.

  13. Flood-inundation maps for the East Fork White River at Columbus, Indiana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lombard, Pamela J.

    2013-01-01

    Digital flood-inundation maps for a 5.4-mile reach of the East Fork White River at Columbus, Indiana, from where the Flatrock and Driftwood Rivers combine to make up East Fork White River to just upstream of the confluence of Clifty Creek with the East Fork White River, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Indiana Department of Transportation. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation, depict estimates of the areal extent of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at USGS streamgage 03364000, East Fork White River at Columbus, Indiana. Current conditions at the USGS streamgage may be obtained on the Internet from the USGS National Water Information System (http://waterdata.usgs.gov/in/nwis/uv/?site_no=03364000&agency_cd=USGS&). The National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts flood hydrographs for the East Fork White River at Columbus, Indiana at their Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) flood warning system Website (http://water.weather.gov/ahps/), that may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. In this study, flood profiles were computed for the stream reach by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The hydraulic model was calibrated by using the most current stage-discharge relation at USGS streamgage 03364000, East Fork White River at Columbus, Indiana. The calibrated hydraulic model was then used to determine 15 water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-foot (ft) intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from bankfull to approximately the highest recorded water level at the streamgage. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model (derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data), having a 0.37-ft vertical accuracy and a 1.02 ft horizontal accuracy), in order to delineate the area flooded at each water level. The availability of these maps, along with Internet information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgage at Columbus, Indiana, and forecasted stream stages from the NWS will provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures as well as for post-flood recovery efforts.

  14. Flood-inundation maps for the Wabash River at Terre Haute, Indiana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lombard, Pamela J.

    2013-01-01

    Digital flood-inundation maps for a 6.3-mi reach of the Wabash River from 0.1 mi downstream of the Interstate 70 bridge to 1.1 miles upstream of the Route 63 bridge, Terre Haute, Indiana, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Indiana Department of Transportation. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/, depict estimates of the areal extent of flooding corresponding to select water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage Wabash River at Terre Haute (station number 03341500). Current conditions at the USGS streamgage may be obtained on the Internet from the USGS National Water Information System (http://waterdata.usgs.gov/in/nwis/uv/?site_no=03341500&agency_cd=USGS&p"). In addition, the same data are provided to the National Weather Service (NWS) for incorporation into their Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) flood warning system (http://water.weather.gov/ahps//). Within this system, the NWS forecasts flood hydrographs for the Wabash River at Terre Haute that may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. In this study, flood profiles were computed for the stream reach by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The model was calibrated using the most current stage-discharge relation at the Wabash River at the Terre Haute streamgage. The hydraulic model was then used to compute 22 water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-ft interval referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from bank-full to approximately the highest recorded water level at the streamgage. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model (derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data having a 0.37-ft vertical accuracy and a 1.02-ft horizontal accuracy) to delineate the area flooded at each water level. The availability of these maps along with Internet information regarding the current stage from the USGS streamgage and forecasted stream stages from the NWS can provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures as well as for post flood recovery efforts.

  15. Feasibility of large-scale water monitoring and forecasting in the Asia-Pacific region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Dijk, A. I. J. M.; Peña-Arancibia, J. L.; Sardella, C. S. E.

    2012-04-01

    The Asian-Pacific region (including China, India and Pakistan) is home to 51% of the global population. It accounts for 53% of agricultural and 32% of domestic water use world wide. Due to the influence of Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean circulation patterns, the region experiences strong inter-annual variations in water availability and occurrence of drought, flood and severe weather. Some of the countries in the region have national water monitoring or forecasting systems, but they are typically of fairly narrow scope. We investigated the feasibility and utility of an integrated regional water monitoring and forecasting system for water resources, floods and drought. In particular, we assessed the quality of information that can be achieved by relying on internationally available data sources, including numerical weather prediction (NWP) and satellite observations of precipitation, soil moisture and vegetation. Combining these data sources with a large scale hydrological model, we produced monitoring and forecast information for selected retrospective case studies. The information was compared to that from national systems, both in terms of information content and system characteristics (e.g. scope, data sources, and information latency). While national systems typically have better access to national observation systems, they do not always make effective use of the available data, science and technology. The relatively slow changing nature of important Pacific and Indian Ocean circulation patterns adds meaningful seasonal forecast skill for some regions. Satellite and NWP precipitation estimates can add considerable value to the national gauge networks: as forecasts, as near-real time observations and as historic reference data. Satellite observations of soil moisture and vegetation are valuable for drought monitoring and underutilised. Overall, we identify several important opportunities for better water monitoring and forecasting in the Asia-Pacific region.

  16. 44 CFR 67.4 - Proposed flood elevation determination.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

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  17. 44 CFR 61.13 - Standard Flood Insurance Policy.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

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  18. 44 CFR 61.14 - Standard Flood Insurance Policy Interpretations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

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  19. 44 CFR 61.14 - Standard Flood Insurance Policy Interpretations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

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  20. 44 CFR 61.17 - Group Flood Insurance Policy.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ...2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Group Flood Insurance Policy. 61.17 Section...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program INSURANCE COVERAGE AND RATES § 61.17 Group Flood Insurance Policy. (a) A...

  1. 44 CFR 67.4 - Proposed flood elevation determination.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ...2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Proposed flood elevation determination. 67.4 Section... INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program APPEALS FROM PROPOSED FLOOD ELEVATION DETERMINATIONS § 67.4...

  2. 44 CFR 61.14 - Standard Flood Insurance Policy Interpretations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

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  3. 44 CFR 61.17 - Group Flood Insurance Policy.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

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  4. 44 CFR 61.13 - Standard Flood Insurance Policy.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

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  5. 44 CFR 61.17 - Group Flood Insurance Policy.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

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  6. 44 CFR 61.14 - Standard Flood Insurance Policy Interpretations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

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  7. 44 CFR 67.4 - Proposed flood elevation determination.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

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  8. 44 CFR 67.4 - Proposed flood elevation determination.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

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  9. 44 CFR 61.13 - Standard Flood Insurance Policy.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

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  10. 44 CFR 67.4 - Proposed flood elevation determination.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

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  11. 44 CFR 61.14 - Standard Flood Insurance Policy Interpretations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

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  12. 44 CFR 61.17 - Group Flood Insurance Policy.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

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  13. 44 CFR 61.13 - Standard Flood Insurance Policy.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

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  14. Ensemble Streamflow Forecast Improvements in NYC's Operations Support Tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, L.; Weiss, W. J.; Porter, J.; Schaake, J. C.; Day, G. N.; Sheer, D. P.

    2013-12-01

    Like most other water supply utilities, New York City's Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) has operational challenges associated with drought and wet weather events. During drought conditions, DEP must maintain water supply reliability to 9 million customers as well as meet environmental release requirements downstream of its reservoirs. During and after wet weather events, DEP must maintain turbidity compliance in its unfiltered Catskill and Delaware reservoir systems and minimize spills to mitigate downstream flooding. Proactive reservoir management - such as release restrictions to prepare for a drought or preventative drawdown in advance of a large storm - can alleviate negative impacts associated with extreme events. It is important for water managers to understand the risks associated with proactive operations so unintended consequences such as endangering water supply reliability with excessive drawdown prior to a storm event are minimized. Probabilistic hydrologic forecasts are a critical tool in quantifying these risks and allow water managers to make more informed operational decisions. DEP has recently completed development of an Operations Support Tool (OST) that integrates ensemble streamflow forecasts, real-time observations, and a reservoir system operations model into a user-friendly graphical interface that allows its water managers to take robust and defensible proactive measures in the face of challenging system conditions. Since initial development of OST was first presented at the 2011 AGU Fall Meeting, significant improvements have been made to the forecast system. First, the monthly AR1 forecasts ('Hirsch method') were upgraded with a generalized linear model (GLM) utilizing historical daily correlations ('Extended Hirsch method' or 'eHirsch'). The development of eHirsch forecasts improved predictive skill over the Hirsch method in the first week to a month from the forecast date and produced more realistic hydrographs on the tail end of high flow periods. These improvements allowed DEP to more effectively manage water quality control and spill mitigation operations immediately after storm events. Later on, post-processed hydrologic forecasts from the National Weather Service (NWS) including the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) and the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) were implemented into OST. These forecasts further increased the predictive skill over the initial statistical models as current basin conditions (e.g. soil moisture, snowpack) and meteorological forecasts (with HEFS) are now explicitly represented. With the post-processed HEFS forecasts, DEP may now truly quantify impacts associated with wet weather events on the horizon, rather than relying on statistical representations of current hydrologic trends. This presentation will highlight the benefits of the improved forecasts using examples from actual system operations.

  15. 44 CFR 65.14 - Remapping of areas for which local flood protection systems no longer provide base flood protection.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

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  16. 44 CFR 65.14 - Remapping of areas for which local flood protection systems no longer provide base flood protection.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

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  17. 44 CFR 65.12 - Revision of flood insurance rate maps to reflect base flood elevations caused by proposed...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

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  18. 44 CFR 60.5 - Flood plain management criteria for flood-related erosion-prone areas.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Flood plain management criteria for flood-related erosion-prone areas. 60.5 Section...SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program CRITERIA FOR LAND...

  19. 44 CFR 65.12 - Revision of flood insurance rate maps to reflect base flood elevations caused by proposed...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ...2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Revision of flood insurance rate maps to reflect base flood elevations caused by proposed encroachments... INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IDENTIFICATION AND...

  20. 44 CFR 65.14 - Remapping of areas for which local flood protection systems no longer provide base flood protection.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... false Remapping of areas for which local flood protection systems no longer provide base flood protection. 65.14 Section 65.14 ...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IDENTIFICATION AND...

  1. 44 CFR 65.12 - Revision of flood insurance rate maps to reflect base flood elevations caused by proposed...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ...2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Revision of flood insurance rate maps to reflect base flood elevations caused by proposed encroachments... INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IDENTIFICATION AND...

  2. 44 CFR 65.14 - Remapping of areas for which local flood protection systems no longer provide base flood protection.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... false Remapping of areas for which local flood protection systems no longer provide base flood protection. 65.14 Section 65.14 ...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IDENTIFICATION AND...

  3. 44 CFR 65.12 - Revision of flood insurance rate maps to reflect base flood elevations caused by proposed...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ...2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Revision of flood insurance rate maps to reflect base flood elevations caused by proposed encroachments... INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IDENTIFICATION AND...

  4. The significance of shifts in precipitation patterns: modelling the impacts of climate change and glacier retreat on extreme flood events in Denali National Park, Alaska.

    PubMed

    Crossman, Jill; Futter, Martyn N; Whitehead, Paul G

    2013-01-01

    In glacier-fed systems climate change may have various effects over a range of time scales, including increasing river discharge, flood frequency and magnitude. This study uses a combination of empirical monitoring and modelling to project the impacts of climate change on the glacial-fed Middle Fork Toklat River, Denali National Park, Alaska. We use a regional calibration of the model HBV to account for a paucity of long term observed flow data, validating a local application using glacial mass balance data and summer flow records. Two Global Climate Models (HADCM3 and CGCM2) and two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B2) are used to ascertain potential changes in meteorological conditions, river discharge, flood frequency and flood magnitude. Using remote sensing methods this study refines existing estimates of glacial recession rates, finding that since 2000, rates have increased from 24 m per year to 68.5m per year, with associated increases in ablation zone ice loss. GCM projections indicate that over the 21(st) century these rates will increase still further, most extensively under the CGCM2 model, and A2 scenarios. Due to greater winter precipitation and ice and snow accumulation, glaciers release increasing meltwater quantities throughout the 21(st) century. Despite increases in glacial melt, results indicate that it is predominantly precipitation that affects river discharge. Three of the four IPCC scenarios project increases in flood frequency and magnitude, events which were primarily associated with changing precipitation patterns, rather than extreme temperature increases or meltwater release. Results suggest that although increasing temperatures will significantly increase glacial melt and winter baseflow, meltwater alone does not pose a significant flood hazard to the Toklat River catchment. Projected changes in precipitation are the primary concern, both through changing snow volumes available for melt, and more directly through increasing catchment runoff. PMID:24023925

  5. Weather Forecasting

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    2010-01-01

    Weather Forecasting is one of several online guides produced by the Weather World 2010 project at the University of Illinois. These guides use multimedia technology and the dynamic capabilities of the web to incorporate text, colorful diagrams, animations, computer simulations, audio, and video to introduce topics and concepts in the atmospheric sciences. This module introduces forecast methods and the numerous factors one must consider when attempting to make an accurate forecast. Sections include forecasting methods for different scenarios, surface features affecting forecasting, forecasting temperatures for day and night, and factors for forecasting precipitation.

  6. Flood Visualizations

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    NASA Goddard Space Flight Center SVS

    A lengthy listing of all of NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio visualizations that have flood as a keyword. The listing includes many visualizations of specific flood instances, as well as visualizations of floods caused by hurricanes. The visualizations are available in a wide variety of formats.

  7. Flood discharges and hydraulics near the mouths of Wolf Creek, Craig Branch, Manns Creek, Dunloup Creek, and Mill Creek in the New River Gorge National River, West Virginia

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wiley, J.B.

    1994-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, studied the frequency and magnitude of flooding near the mouths of five tributaries to the New River in the New River Gorge National River. The 100-year peak discharge at each tributary was determined from regional frequency equations. The 100-year discharge at Wolf Creek, Craig Branch, Manns Creek, Dunloup Creek, and Mill Creek was 3,400 cubic feet per second, 640 cubic feet per second, 8,200 cubic feet per second, 7,100 cubic feet per second, and 9,400 cubic feet per second, respectively. Flood elevations for each tributary were determined by application of a steady-state, one-dimensional flow model. Manning's roughness coefficients for the stream channels ranged from 0.040 to 0.100. Bridges that would be unable to contain the 100-year flood within the bridge opening included: the State Highway 82 bridge on Wolf Creek, the second Fayette County Highway 25 bridge upstream from the confluence with New River on Dunloup Creek, and an abandoned log bridge on Mill Creek.

  8. Belford proactive flood solutions: scientific evidence to influence local and national policy by multi-purpose runoff management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilkinson, M.; Quinn, P. F.; Jonczyk, J.

    2010-12-01

    The increased risk from flooding continues to be of concern to governments all around the world and flood protection is becoming more of a challenge. In the UK, climate change projections indicate more extremes within the weather systems. In addition, there is an increased demand for using land in urban areas beside channels. These developments both put pressure on our flood defences and there is a need for new solutions to managing flood risk. There is currently support within the England and Wales Environment Agency for sustainable flood management solutions such as storage ponds, wetlands, beaver dams and willow riparian features (referred to here as Runoff Attenuation Features, or RAFs). However the effectiveness of RAFs are not known at the catchment scale since they have only really been trailed at the plot scale. These types of mitigation measure can offer benefits to water quality and create ecological habitats. The village of Belford, situated in the Belford Burn catchment (6km2), northern England, has suffered from numerous flood events. In addition, the catchment suffers from water quality issues within the channel and high sediment loads are having an impact on the ecology of the nearby estuary. There was a desire by the Local Environment Agency Flood Levy team to deliver an alternative catchment-based solution to the problem. With funding from the Northumbria Regional Flood Defence Committee, the Environment Agency North East Local Levy team and Newcastle University have created a partnership to address the flood problem trailing soft engineered RAF’s at the catchment scale. The partnership project, “Belford proactive flood solutions” is testing novel techniques in reducing flood risk in small sub-catchments for the Environment Agency. The project provides the information needed to understand whether the multi-functional mitigation measures are working at the sub-catchment scale. Data suggest that the mitigation measures present have delayed the overall travel time of the flood peak in the catchment by 33%. The current maximum flood storage capacity of all the features stands at around 15,000 m3. The evidence also suggests that a dam like in-stream mitigation measure can significantly reduce sediment load. Other benefits of some mitigation features include large increase in the population of water voles over the past two years. The scheme also acts as a demonstration site for interested stakeholders where they can learn about this approach to flood risk management and see the multipurpose benefits. As the project has progressed and lessons have been learnt, it has been possible to develop a runoff management toolkit for implementing these mitigation measures in other catchments of similar size. Already, the local Environment Agency has utilised the tools and recently applied similar mitigation measures to other catchments. On-going modelling exercises in the project are using the data to explore the up-scaling of the features to larger catchments.

  9. Seasonally Flooded Grasslands -Grand CaymanSeasonally Flooded Grasslands -Grand Cayman 0 1 2 3 4 50.5

    E-print Network

    Exeter, University of

    Seasonally Flooded Grasslands - Grand CaymanSeasonally Flooded Grasslands - Grand Cayman 0 1 2 3 4 Protected Areas Seasonally Flooded Grasslands V.A.1.N.g. #12;Seasonally Flooded Grasslands - Little CaymanSeasonally Flooded Grasslands - Little Cayman 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.50.25 Kilometers Cayman Islands National Biodiversity

  10. 78 FR 8089 - Proposed Flood Elevation Determinations

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-02-05

    ...addresses the flooding sources Big Run, Little Loyalsock Creek...addressed the flooding sources Big Run, Little Loyalsock Creek...Big Run...National Geodetic Vertical Datum. + North American Vertical...

  11. 77 FR 67324 - Proposed Flood Elevation Determinations

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-11-09

    ...addresses the flooding sources Big Run, Little Loyalsock Creek...addressed the flooding sources Big Run, Little Loyalsock Creek...Big Run...National Geodetic Vertical Datum. + North American Vertical...

  12. FLOOD! Natural Flood Controls

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    The Advanced Technology Environmental and Energy Center (ATEEC) provides this learning module on the theme of flood management. The unit "contains a set of activities that ask students to investigate the characteristics of drainage basins of rivers in order to understand the relationships between landscape and the movement of water across the landscape surface." Users must download this resource for viewing, which requires a free log-in. There is no cost to download the item. The unit is available in a ZIP file, which contains the individual lesson items.

  13. Teaching Floods and Flooding Quantitatively

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    Baer, Eric M.

    This page helps faculty communicate essential ideas that students struggle with in terms of floods and flooding. It takes into account the concepts of probability and recurrence interval and discusses hydrologic terminology, relations between discharge and stage, and the meaning of the '100 year flood.'

  14. The WMO Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project (CIFDP)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Boram; Resio, Don; Swail, Val; Fakhruddin, Shm; Horsburgh, Kevin

    2014-05-01

    Coastal inundations are an increasing threat to the lives and livelihoods of people living in low-lying, highly-populated coastal areas. According to the World Bank Report 2005, at least 2.6 million people have drowned in coastal inundation, particularly caused by storm surges, over the last 200 years. The purpose of the WMO Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project (CIFDP) is to meet the challenges of coastal communities' safety and to support sustainable development through enhancing coastal inundation forecasting and warning systems at the regional scale. Upon completion of national sub-projects of CIFDP, countries will implement an operational system for integrated coastal inundation forecasting and warning, providing an objective basis for coastal disaster (flooding) management; contributing to saving lives, reducing loss of livelihood and property, and enhancing resilience and sustainability in coastal communities. Operation and maintenance of the CIF system would be the responsibility of national operational agencies with a mandate for coastal inundation warnings. The main focus of the CIFDP will be to facilitate the development of efficient forecasting and warning systems for coastal inundation based on robust science and observations: The presentation will describe the scope and the technical framework for CIFDP and describe its implementation in the various sub-projects presently underway.

  15. Identification of flood-rich and flood-poor periods in flood series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mediero, Luis; Santillán, David; Garrote, Luis

    2015-04-01

    Recently, a general concern about non-stationarity of flood series has arisen, as changes in catchment response can be driven by several factors, such as climatic and land-use changes. Several studies to detect trends in flood series at either national or trans-national scales have been conducted. Trends are usually detected by the Mann-Kendall test. However, the results of this test depend on the starting and ending year of the series, which can lead to different results in terms of the period considered. The results can be conditioned to flood-poor and flood-rich periods located at the beginning or end of the series. A methodology to identify statistically significant flood-rich and flood-poor periods is developed, based on the comparison between the expected sampling variability of floods when stationarity is assumed and the observed variability of floods in a given series. The methodology is applied to a set of long series of annual maximum floods, peaks over threshold and counts of annual occurrences in peaks over threshold series observed in Spain in the period 1942-2009. Mediero et al. (2014) found a general decreasing trend in flood series in some parts of Spain that could be caused by a flood-rich period observed in 1950-1970, placed at the beginning of the flood series. The results of this study support the findings of Mediero et al. (2014), as a flood-rich period in 1950-1970 was identified in most of the selected sites. References: Mediero, L., Santillán, D., Garrote, L., Granados, A. Detection and attribution of trends in magnitude, frequency and timing of floods in Spain, Journal of Hydrology, 517, 1072-1088, 2014.

  16. Climate change and plant community composition in national parks of the southwestern US: forecasting regional, long-term effects to meet management needs

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Munson, Seth M.; Belnap, Jayne; Webb, Robert H.; Hubbard, J. Andrew; Reiser, M. Hildegard; Gallo, Kirsten

    2014-01-01

    The National Park Service (NPS) faces tremendous management challenges in the future as climates alter the abundance and distribution of plant species. These challenges will be especially daunting in the southwestern U.S., where large increases in aridity are forecasted. The expected reduction in water availability will negatively affect plant growth and may result in shifts of plant community composition. Synthesis of climate and plant vital sign data from National Park Service Inventory and Monitoring (I&M) networks is essential to provide park managers with important insights into contemporary climate responses and a sound basis to forecast likely future changes at species, community, and ecosystem scales. We describe a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and NPS in which we have conducted regional cross-site assessments across the Sonoran and Chihuahuan Deserts to understand plant species responses to past climate and forecast future plant community composition. We also determined whether a widely-implemented vegetation monitoring protocol in these deserts is suitable to track long-term vegetation changes caused by climate and other factors. Our results from these analyses are intended to help natural resource managers identify and prepare for changes in plant cover and community composition and evaluate the efficacy of current monitoring programs.

  17. Flood-inundation maps for the White River at Spencer, Indiana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nystrom, Elizabeth A.

    2013-01-01

    Digital flood-inundation maps for a 5.3-mile reach of the White River at Spencer, Indiana, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Indiana Office of Community and Rural Affairs. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/, depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage White River at Spencer, Indiana (sta. no. 03357000). Current conditions for estimating near-real-time areas of inundation using USGS streamgage information may be obtained on the Internet at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/. National Weather Service (NWS)-forecasted peak-stage inforamation may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. In this study, flood profiles were computed for the stream reach by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The model was calibrated by using the most current stage-discharge relation at the White River at Spencer, Indiana, streamgage and documented high-water marks from the flood of June 8, 2008. The hydraulic model was then used to compute 20 water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-foot intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from the NWS action stage (9 feet) to the highest rated stage (28 feet) at the streamgage. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model (derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data) in order to delineate the area flooded at each water level. The availability of these maps along with Internet information regarding the current stage from the Spencer USGS streamgage and forecasted stream stages from the NWS will provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities, such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for post-flood recovery efforts.

  18. Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems 

    E-print Network

    Poulin, L.

    2013-01-01

    Lewis Poulin Implementation and Operational Services Section Canadian Meteorological Centre, Dorval, Qc National Prediction Operations Division ICEBO 2013, Montreal, Qc October 10 2013 Version 2013-09-27 Weather Forecast Data An Important... and weather information ? Numerical weather forecast production 101 ? From deterministic to probabilistic forecasts ? Some MSC weather forecast (NWP) datasets ? Finding the appropriate data for the appropriate forecast ? Preparing for probabilistic...

  19. Prediction and Forecasting

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has compiled this excellent site containing information on "meteorology, weather, and prediction". Visitors to the site can peruse NCAR information by topic. Some of the topics on the site include: short-term weather forecasting, precipitation, and severe storm prediction among others. This is an excellent resource for students, teachers, and anyone who is interested in learning about weather and weather forecasting from a highly respected site.

  20. The Hydroclimatology of Flash Flooding in the Urban Corridor of the Northeastern US

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Long; Smith, James; Baeck, Mary Lynn; Niyogi, Dev

    2015-04-01

    We examine the hydroclimatology of flash flooding in the urban corridor of the northeastern US, focusing on the densely urbanized region from Philadelphia PA to New York, NY. We examine the hydrometerology of flash flooding in the region through empirical studies using "storm catalogs" of flash flood producing storms in the region and through numerical modeling experiments using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Empirical analyses are based primarily on volume scan reflectivity observations from the WSR-88D radar network and cloud-to-ground lightning observations from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). Empirical and numerical modeling analyses are designed to determine the role of spatial heterogeneities of land surface properties (both natural and man-made) in controlling rainfall properties of flash flood producing storms. We focus on Lagrangian properties of storms in both empirical and numerical modeling studies. Analyses of urban flooding focus on the Pennypack Creek watershed in Philadelphia and the Harry's Brook watershed in Princeton, NJ. We examine the interplay of storm properties and drainage basin properties in determining flood hazards in urban watersheds.

  1. Stream Floods

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    Warren Huff

    2000-11-03

    This exercise is designed to explore the nature of floods and flood prediction. Prediction of flooding relies heavily upon statistical techniques based on historical records of stream behavior. This series of exercises first reviews basic concepts in flood prediction such as calculating the Recurrence Interval (RI), which is the average interval in years between occurrences of two discharges of equal magnitude; and the Weibull equation, which calculates the probability that a given discharge will be exceeded in any particular year. The student then accesses historical data on U.S. stream flow and performs these calculations independently.

  2. How much are you prepared to PAY for a forecast?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnal, Louise; Coughlan, Erin; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Pappenberger, Florian; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Bachofen, Carina; van Andel, Schalk Jan

    2015-04-01

    Probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts are a crucial element of the decision-making chain in the field of flood prevention. The operational use of probabilistic forecasts is increasingly promoted through the development of new novel state-of-the-art forecast methods and numerical skill is continuously increasing. However, the value of such forecasts for flood early-warning systems is a topic of diverging opinions. Indeed, the word value, when applied to flood forecasting, is multifaceted. It refers, not only to the raw cost of acquiring and maintaining a probabilistic forecasting system (in terms of human and financial resources, data volume and computational time), but also and most importantly perhaps, to the use of such products. This game aims at investigating this point. It is a willingness to pay game, embedded in a risk-based decision-making experiment. Based on a ``Red Cross/Red Crescent, Climate Centre'' game, it is a contribution to the international Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX). A limited number of probabilistic forecasts will be auctioned to the participants; the price of these forecasts being market driven. All participants (irrespective of having bought or not a forecast set) will then be taken through a decision-making process to issue warnings for extreme rainfall. This game will promote discussions around the topic of the value of forecasts for decision-making in the field of flood prevention.

  3. 44 CFR 63.12 - Setback and community flood plain management requirements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ...2013-10-01 false Setback and community flood plain management requirements. 63...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IMPLEMENTATION OF SECTION 1306(c) OF THE NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE ACT OF 1968 General §...

  4. 44 CFR 63.12 - Setback and community flood plain management requirements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ...2014-10-01 false Setback and community flood plain management requirements. 63...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IMPLEMENTATION OF SECTION 1306(c) OF THE NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE ACT OF 1968 General §...

  5. 44 CFR 63.12 - Setback and community flood plain management requirements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ...2011-10-01 true Setback and community flood plain management requirements. 63...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IMPLEMENTATION OF SECTION 1306(c) OF THE NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE ACT OF 1968 General §...

  6. Volcanoes magnify Metro Manila's southwest monsoon rains and lethal floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lagmay, Alfredo Mahar; Bagtasa, Gerry; Crisologo, Irene; Racoma, Bernard Alan; David, Carlos Primo

    Many volcanoes worldwide are located near populated cities that experience monsoon seasons, characterised by shifting winds each year. Because of the severity of flood impact to large populations, it is worthy of investigation in the Philippines and elsewhere to better understand the phenomenon for possible hazard mitigating solutions, if any. During the monsoon season, the change in flow direction of winds brings moist warm air to cross the mountains and volcanoes in western Philippines and cause lift into the atmosphere, which normally leads to heavy rains and floods. Heavy southwest monsoon rains from 18-21 August 2013 flooded Metro Manila (population of 12 million) and its suburbs paralyzing the nation’s capital for an entire week. Called the 2013 Habagat event, it was a repeat of the 2012 Habagat or extreme southwest monsoon weather from 6-9 August, which delivered record rains in the mega city. In both the 2012 and 2013 Habagat events, cyclones, the usual suspects for the delivery of heavy rains, were passing northeast of the Philippine archipelago, respectively, and enhanced the southwest monsoon. Analysis of Doppler data, rainfall measurements, and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations show that two large stratovolcanoes, Natib and Mariveles, across from Manila Bay and approximately 70 km west of Metro Manila, played a substantial role in delivering extreme rains and consequent floods to Metro Manila. The study highlights how volcanoes, with their shape and height create an orographic effect and dispersive tail of rain clouds which constitutes a significant flood hazard to large communities like Metro Manila.

  7. Flood Maps

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    Alex Tingle

    This map, created by combining data from Google Maps and NASA, shows which land areas would be flooded by sea level rises between 0 and 14 meters. The NASA data set used is only of limited reliability, but the map provides a fascinating view of the consequences of rising sea levels, and the consequent floods of costal areas.

  8. Progress in Multi-Center Probabilistic Wave Forecasting and Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation using LETKF at the US National Weather Service

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alves, Jose-Henrique; Bernier, Natacha; Etala, Paula; Wittmann, Paul

    2015-04-01

    The combination of ensemble predictions of Hs made by the US National Weather Service (NEW) and the US Navy Fleet Numerical Meteorological and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) has established the NFCENS, a probabilistic wave forecast system in operations at NCEP since 2011. Computed from 41 combined wave ensemble members, the new product outperforms deterministic and probabilistic forecasts and nowcasts of Hs issued separately at each forecast center, at all forecast ranges. The successful implementation of the NFCENS has brought new opportunities for collaboration with Environment Canada (EC). EC is in the process of adding new global wave model ensemble products to its existing suite of operational regional products. The planned upgrade to the current NFCENS wave multi-center ensemble includes the addition of 20 members from the Canadian WES. With this upgrade, the NFCENS will be renamed North American Wave Ensemble System (NAWES). As part of the new system implementation, new higher-resolution grids and upgrades to model physics using recent advances in source-term parameterizations are being tested. We provide results of a first validation of NAWES relative to global altimeter data, and buoy measurements of waves, as well as its ability to forecast waves during the 2012 North Atlantic hurricane Sandy. A second line of research involving wave ensembles at the NWS is the implementation of a LETKF-based data assimilation system developed in collaboration with the Argentinian Navy Meteorological Service. The project involves an implementation of the 4D-LETKF in the NWS global wave ensemble forecast system GWES. The 4-D scheme initializes a full 81-member ensemble in a 6-hour cycle. The LETKF determines the analysis ensemble locally in the space spanned by the ensemble, as a linear combination of the background perturbations. Observations from three altimeters and one scatterometer were used. Preliminary results for a prototype system running at the NWS, including significant wave observations from altimeters show stable errors after the spin-up in the significant wave height, when the background fields are compared to the observations. The same can be said when compared to independent observations from off-shore moored buoys. The observational departures from the full 6-hour assimilation window show a much smoother behavior than the errors at the analysis time, at the ending time of the window.

  9. Retrospective Analysis of Recent Flood Events With Persistent High Surface Runoff From Hydrological Modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joshi, S.; Hakeem, K. Abdul; Raju, P. V.; Rao, V. V.; Yadav, A.; Diwakar, P. G.; Dadhwal, V. K.

    2014-11-01

    Floods are one of the most common and widespread disasters in India, with an estimated 40Mha of land prone to this natural disaster (National Flood Commission, India). Significant loss of property, infrastructure, livestock, public utilities resulting in large economic losses due to floods are recurrent every year in many parts of India. Flood forecasting and early warning is widely recognized and adopted as non-structural measure to lower the damages caused by the flood events. Estimating the rainfall excess that results into excessive river flow is preliminary effort in riverine flood estimation. Flood forecasting models are in general, are event based and do not fully account for successive and persistent excessive surface runoff conditions. Successive high rainfall events result in saturated soil moisture conditions, favourable for high surface runoff conditions. The present study is to explore the usefulness of hydrological model derived surface runoff, running on continuous times-step, to relate to the occurrence of flood inundation due to persistent and successive high surface runoff conditions. Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC), a macro-scale hydrological model, was used to simulate daily runoff at systematic grid level incorporating daily meteorological data and land cover data. VIC is a physically based, semi-distributed macroscale hydrological model that represents surface and subsurface hydrologic process on spatially distributed grid cell. It explicitly represents sub-grid heterogeneity in land cover classes, taking their phenological changes into account. In this study, the model was setup for entire India using geo-spatial data available from multiple sources (NRSC, NBSS&LUP, NOAA, and IMD) and was calibrated with river discharge data from CWC at selected river basins. Using the grid-wise surface runoff estimates from the model, an algorithm was developed through a set of thresholds of successive high runoff values in order to identify grids/locations with probable flooding conditions. These thresholds were refined through iterative process by comparing with satellite data derived flood maps of 2013 and 2014 monsoon season over India. India encountered many cyclonic flood events during Oct-Dec 2013, among which Phailin, Lehar, and Madi were rated to be very severe cyclonic storm. The path and intensity of these cyclonic events was very well captured by the model and areas were marked with persistent coverage of high runoff risk/flooded area. These thresholds were used to monitor floods in Jammu Kashmir during 4-5 Sep and Odisha during 8-9 Aug, 2014. The analysis indicated the need to vary the thresholds across space considering the terrain and geographical conditions. With respect to this a sub-basin wise study was made based on terrain characteristics (slope, elevation) using Aster DEM. It was found that basins with higher elevation represent higher thresholds as compared to basins with lesser elevation. The results show very promising correlation with the satellite derived flood maps. Further refinement and optimization of thresholds, varying them spatially accounting for topographic/terrain conditions, would lead to estimation of high runoff/flood risk areas for both riverine and drainage congested areas. Use of weather forecast data (NCMWRF, (GEFS/R)), etc. would enhance the scope to develop early warning systems.

  10. Flood Risk and Global Change: Future Prospects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serra-Llobet, A.

    2014-12-01

    Global flood risk is increasing in response to population growth in flood-prone areas, human encroachment into natural flood paths (exacerbating flooding in areas formerly out of harm's way), and climate change (which alters variables driving floods). How will societies respond to and manage flood risk in coming decades? Analysis of flood policy evolution in the EU and US demonstrates that changes occurred in steps, in direct response to disasters. After the flood produced by the collapse of Tous Dam in 1982, Spain initiated a systematic assessment of areas of greatest flood risk and civil protection response. The devastating floods on the Elbe and elsewhere in central Europe in 2002 motivated adoption of the EU Floods Directive (2007), which requires member states to develop systematic flood risk maps (now due) and flood risk management plans (due in 2015). The flooding of New Orleans by Hurricane Katrina in 2005 resulted in a nationwide levee-safety assessment and improvements in communicating risk, but overall less fundamental change in US flood management than manifest in the EU since 2007. In the developing world, large (and increasing) concentrations of populations in low-lying floodplains, deltas, and coasts are increasingly vulnerable, and governments mostly ill-equipped to implement fundamental changes in land use to prevent future increases in exposure, nor to develop responses to the current threats. Even in the developed world, there is surprisingly little research on how well residents of flood-prone lands understand their true risk, especially when they are 'protected' by '100-year' levees. Looking ahead, researchers and decision makers should prioritize improvements in flood risk perception, river-basin-scale assessment of flood runoff processes (under current and future climate and land-use conditions) and flood management alternatives, and bridging the disconnect between national and international floodplain management policies and local land-use decisions.

  11. Flood enhancement through flood control

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Criss, Robert E.; Shock, Everett L.

    2001-10-01

    Flood stages for constant discharge have increased 2 4 m over the past century at numerous locations in the Mississippi River basin. However, no increases are observed on rivers such as the Meramec and the upper Missouri, which have been spared extensive river engineering projects. Flood-stage increases on the middle Mississippi River and lower Missouri River are mostly attributable to channelization.

  12. Program for Prediction, Prevention and Mitigation of Forest Fire and Flood risk in Albania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Centoducati, C.; D'Angelo, L.; Deda, M.; Ferraris, L.; Fiori, E.; Gjonaj, M.; Kelmendi, S.; Massabò, M.; Olli, A.; Siccardi, F.

    2012-04-01

    The rationale lying behind the program jointly managed by the Albanian and the Italian Civil protections is that of strengthening the Albanian National System for the prediction and prevention of forest fires and flooding. This is an initiative of the Italian government aimed at implementing in Albania the systems currently used by the Italian National "Functional Centers". The "Functional Centers" are the Operations Centers in charge for assessment forecasting, and surveillance of natural and man-made risks and represent a key component of the Italian Civil Protection System. CIMA Foundation is acting in its capacity as Executing Agency of the Italian Department of Civil Protection (DPC) in the framework of the International Cooperation between the two Countries. CIMA Foundation has been founded by DPC and the University of Genoa with the aim of advancing the scientific research and technical development, high profile engineering and environmental science education, whose ultimate goal is to guarantee public health and safety as well as to safeguard land and sea ecosystems. The "Program for Prediction, Prevention and Mitigation of Forest Fire and Flood risk in Albania" addresses four objectives: Object 1- to establish a National Center for Forecasting and Monitoring of Natural Risk/National Functional Center, a National Operations Center and two Regional Operations Centers; Object 2 to design and to implement an intensive training programme for risk assessment and management; Object 3 - to adapt the Italian Early Warning System for forest fires to the whole Albanian territory; Object 4 - to adapt the Italian Early Warning System for flooding to the Buna river and the Shkodra region, the latter recently affected by two disastrous floods.

  13. Integration of transfer function model and back propagation neural network for forecasting storm sewer flow in Taipei metropolis

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Chih-Chiang Lu; Chu-Hui Chen; Tian-Chyi J. Yeh; Cheng-Mau Wu; I-Fang Yau

    2006-01-01

    Typhoons and storms have often brought heavy rainfalls and induced floods that have frequently caused severe damage and loss\\u000a of life in Taiwan. Our ability to predict sewer discharge and forecast floods in advance during storm seasons plays an important\\u000a role in flood warning and flood hazard mitigation. In this paper, we develop an integrated model (TFMBPN) for forecasting\\u000a sewer

  14. Flash flood modeling with the MARINE hydrological distributed model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Estupina-Borrell, V.; Dartus, D.; Ababou, R.

    2006-11-01

    Flash floods are characterized by their violence and the rapidity of their occurrence. Because these events are rare and unpredictable, but also fast and intense, their anticipation with sufficient lead time for warning and broadcasting is a primary subject of research. Because of the heterogeneities of the rain and of the behavior of the surface, spatially distributed hydrological models can lead to a better understanding of the processes and so on they can contribute to a better forecasting of flash flood. Our main goal here is to develop an operational and robust methodology for flash flood forecasting. This methodology should provide relevant data (information) about flood evolution on short time scales, and should be applicable even in locations where direct observations are sparse (e.g. absence of historical and modern rainfalls and streamflows in small mountainous watersheds). The flash flood forecast is obtained by the physically based, space-time distributed hydrological model "MARINE'' (Model of Anticipation of Runoff and INondations for Extreme events). This model is presented and tested in this paper for a real flash flood event. The model consists in two steps, or two components: the first component is a "basin'' flood module which generates flood runoff in the upstream part of the watershed, and the second component is the "stream network'' module, which propagates the flood in the main river and its subsidiaries. The basin flash flood generation model is a rainfall-runoff model that can integrate remotely sensed data. Surface hydraulics equations are solved with enough simplifying hypotheses to allow real time exploitation. The minimum data required by the model are: (i) the Digital Elevation Model, used to calculate slopes that generate runoff, it can be issued from satellite imagery (SPOT) or from French Geographical Institute (IGN); (ii) the rainfall data from meteorological radar, observed or anticipated by the French Meteorological Service (Météo France); and (iii) the spatially distributed soil and other surface properties viewed from space (land cover map from SPOT or LANDSAT, main rivers, ...). The stream flood propagation model simulates flood propagation in main rivers by solving 1-D Saint Venant equations. The data required for this part of the model are the river morphology, topography and roughness. The MARINE model has already been used previously for real time flash floods forecasting in the frame of the PACTES project on "forecasting and anticipation of floods with spatial techniques'' (funded by the CNES and the French Ministry of Research) concerning the catastrophic 1999 flash flood that occurred in the South of France. The main advantages of MARINE are its ability to run on insufficiently gauged basins (with the help of satellite information) and to run in an operational mode for real-time flood forecasting.

  15. Urban flooding and Resilience: concepts and needs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gourbesville, Ph.

    2012-04-01

    During the recent years, a growing interest for resilience has been expressed in the natural disaster mitigation area and especially in the flood related events. The European Union, under the Seventh Framework Programme (FP7), has initiated several research initiatives in order to explore this concept especially for the urban environments. Under urban resilience is underlined the ability of system potentially exposed to hazard to resist, respond, recover and reflect up to stage which is enough to preserve level of functioning and structure. Urban system can be resilient to lot of different hazards. Urban resilience is defined as the degree to which cities are able to tolerate some disturbance before reorganizing around a new set of structures and processes (Holling 1973, De Bruijn 2005). The United Nation's International strategy for Disaster Reductions has defined resilience as "the capacity of a system, community or society potentially exposed to hazards to adapt, by resisting or changing in order to reach and maintain an acceptable level of functioning and structure. This is determined by the degree to which the social system is capable of organizing itself to increase this capacity for learning from past disasters for better future protection and to improve risk reduction measures."(UN/ISDR 2004). According to that, system should be able to accept the hazard and be able to recover up to condition that provides acceptable operational level of city structure and population during and after hazard event. Main elements of urban system are built environment and population. Physical characteristic of built environment and social characteristic of population have to be examined in order to evaluate resilience. Therefore presenting methodology for assessing flood resilience in urban areas has to be one of the focal points for the exposed cities. Strategies under flood management planning related to resilience of urban systems are usually regarding controlling runoff volume, increasing capacity of drainage systems, spatial planning, building regulations, etc. Resilience also considers resilience of population to floods and it's measured with time. Assessment of resilience that is focused on population is following bottom-up approach starting from individual and then assessing community level. Building resilience involves also contribution of social networks, increasing response capacity of communities, self-organization, learning and education and cheering adaptation culture. Measures for improving social side of resilience covers: raising public awareness, implementation of flood forecasting and warning, emergency response planning and training, sharing information, education and communication. Most of these aspects are analyzed with the CORFU FP7 project. Collaborative Research on Flood Resilience in Urban areas (CORFU) is a major project involving 17 European and Asian institutions, funded by a grant from the European Commission under the Seventh Framework Programme. The overall aim of CORFU is to enable European and Asian partners to learn from each other through joint investigation, development, implementation and dissemination of short to medium term strategies that will enable more scientifically sound management of the consequences of urban flooding in the future and to develop resilience strategies according to each situation. The CORFU project looks at advanced and novel strategies and provide adequate measures for improved flood management in cities. The differences in urban flooding problems in Asia and in Europe range from levels of economic development, infrastructure age, social systems and decision making processes, to prevailing drainage methods, seasonality of rainfall patterns and climate change trends. The study cases are, in Europe, the cities of Hamburg, Barcelona and Nice, and in Asia, Beijing, Dhaka, Mumbai, Taipei, Seoul and Incheon.

  16. Flood inundation maps for the Wabash and Eel Rivers at Logansport, Indiana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fowler, Kathleen K.

    2014-01-01

    Digital flood-inundation maps for an 8.3-mile reach of the Wabash River and a 7.6-mile reach of the Eel River at Logansport, Indiana (Ind.), were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Indiana Office of Community and Rural Affairs. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/, depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at USGS streamgage Wabash River at Logansport, Ind. (sta. no. 03329000) and USGS streamgage Eel River near Logansport, Ind. (sta. no. 03328500). Current conditions for estimating near-real-time areas of inundation using USGS streamgage information may be obtained on the Internet at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/. In addition, information has been provided to the National Weather Service (NWS) for incorporation into their Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) flood warning system http:/water.weather.gov/ahps/). The NWS forecasts flood hydrographs at many places that are often colocated with USGS streamgages. NWS-forecasted peak-stage information may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. For this study, flood profiles were computed for the stream reaches by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The hydraulic model was calibrated by using the most current stage-discharge relations at USGS streamgages 03329000, Wabash River at Logansport, Ind., and 03328500, Eel River near Logansport, Ind. The calibrated hydraulic model was then used to determine five water-surface profiles for flood stage at 1-foot intervals referenced to the Wabash River streamgage datum, and four water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-foot intervals referenced to the Eel River streamgage datum. The stages range from bankfull to approximately the highest stages that have occurred since 1967 when three flood control dams were built upstream of Logansport, Ind. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system (GIS) digital elevation model (DEM, derived from Light Detection and Ranging [lidar] data having a 0.37-foot vertical accuracy and 3.9-foot horizontal resolution) in order to delineate the area flooded at each stage. The availability of these maps, along with information available on the Internet regarding current stages from the USGS streamgages at Logansport, Ind., and forecasted stream stages from the NWS, provides emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for post flood recovery efforts.

  17. 2-D Numerical Simulation of Flooding Effects Caused by South-to-North Water Transfer Project

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Dong-po SUN; Hai XUE; Peng-tao WANG; Rui-li LU; Xiao-long LIAO

    2008-01-01

    Since the General Channel designed for the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in China has to cross many rivers and streams flowing from west to east, there are potentially serious effects additional flooding on the western side of the project alignment. Therefore, a 2-D numerical model for forecasting basin flood disasters was established and verified using historical flood data. The model

  18. Section "Informatics" MULTICRITERIA ANALYSIS APPLIED TO A FLOOD EVENT ON RIVER

    E-print Network

    Mustakerov, Ivan

    Section "Informatics" 1 MULTICRITERIA ANALYSIS APPLIED TO A FLOOD EVENT ON RIVER MARITZA1 1 Institute of Information Technologies ­ Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Bulgaria ABSTRACT Floods. The flood disaster management is highly dependent on early information and needs forecasts and data from

  19. A conceptual framework for space-borne flood detection\\/monitoring system

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Y. Hong; R. Adler; G. Huffman; A. Negri

    2006-01-01

    Floods account for the largest number of natural disasters and affect more people than any other types of natural disasters in many regions of the world. Heavy rainfall is the primary causative factor for floods in many temperate and tropical regions across the world. Advances in flood monitoring\\/forecasting have been constrained by the difficulty of estimating rainfall continuously over space

  20. Weather Forecasting

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    Twin Cities Public Television, Inc.

    2005-01-01

    This activity (on page 2 of the PDF) is a full inquiry investigation into meteorology and forecasting. Learners will research weather folklore, specifically looking for old-fashioned ways of predicting the weather. Then, they'll record observations of these predictors along with readings from their own homemade barometer, graphing the correct predictions for analysis. Relates to linked video, DragonflyTV: Forecasting.

  1. Weather Forecasting

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    This activity is designed to give students an understanding of how to forecast weather and how to use weather reports for their personal benefit. They will be able to tell what weather is, read weather instruments, understand basic cloud formations in relation to the weather, and make forecasts for two days in advance.

  2. Flood Hazard Causes and Flood Protection Recommendations for Belgian River Basins

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Etienne Persoons; Marnik Vanclooster; Albert Desmed

    2002-01-01

    The two recent disastrous floods of the river Meuse of December 1993 and January 1995 initiated a thorough discussion about the different aspects of flood protection in Belgium. For helping decision makers in improving the national flood protection policies, an interdisciplinary group of experts was established with members belonging to the academic and the administrative communities. The goal of the

  3. Assessment of reservoir system variable forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kistenmacher, Martin; Georgakakos, Aris P.

    2015-05-01

    Forecast ensembles are a convenient means to model water resources uncertainties and to inform planning and management processes. For multipurpose reservoir systems, forecast types include (i) forecasts of upcoming inflows and (ii) forecasts of system variables and outputs such as reservoir levels, releases, flood damage risks, hydropower production, water supply withdrawals, water quality conditions, navigation opportunities, and environmental flows, among others. Forecasts of system variables and outputs are conditional on forecasted inflows as well as on specific management policies and can provide useful information for decision-making processes. Unlike inflow forecasts (in ensemble or other forms), which have been the subject of many previous studies, reservoir system variable and output forecasts are not formally assessed in water resources management theory or practice. This article addresses this gap and develops methods to rectify potential reservoir system forecast inconsistencies and improve the quality of management-relevant information provided to stakeholders and managers. The overarching conclusion is that system variable and output forecast consistency is critical for robust reservoir management and needs to be routinely assessed for any management model used to inform planning and management processes. The above are demonstrated through an application from the Sacramento-American-San Joaquin reservoir system in northern California.

  4. A hybrid multi-model approach to river level forecasting

    Microsoft Academic Search

    LINDA SEE; STAN OPENSHAW

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents four different approaches for integrating conventional and AI-based forecasting models to provide a hybridized solution to the continuous river level and flood prediction problem. Individual forecasting models were developed on a stand alone basis using historical time series data from the River Ouse in northern England. These include a hybrid neural network, a simple rule-based fuzzy logic

  5. Flood Frequency Analysis of the Waimakariri River

    E-print Network

    Reale, Marco

    Flood Frequency Analysis of the Waimakariri River Robert Ware1 and Frank Lad2 Abstract Different from the Waimakariri River in Canterbury, New Zealand. Finally, we compare the appropriateness forecasting; Scoring Rules; Waimakariri River. 1 Introduction A common problem in many areas of environmental

  6. Integration of Snow Data from Remote Sensing into Operational Streamflow Forecasting in the Western United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bender, S.; Painter, T. H.; Miller, W. P.; Andreadis, K.

    2014-12-01

    Managers of water resources depend on snowmelt-driven runoff for multiple purposes including water supply, irrigation, attainment of environmental goals, and power generation. Emergency managers track flood potential, particularly in years with above-normal snow conditions. The Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) of the National Weather Service issues operational streamflow forecasts in the western United States. Runoff during the critical April through July period is predominantly driven by snowmelt; therefore, the CBRFC and users of its forecasts consider snow observations to be highly valuable. In CBRFC's area of responsibility, the density of stations within gauge-based observation networks is not ideal. Snowpack estimates from satellite-borne instruments may aid in filling data gaps where information from point networks is unavailable. CBRFC has partnered with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) under funding from NASA to incorporate remotely-sensed snow data from NASA's MODIS instrument into CBRFC forecasts. The partnership will enter its third year in 2015 and demonstrates an invaluable collaboration between operational and research scientists. Research indicates that streamflow prediction errors could be reduced through use of remotely-sensed snow data. In the first two years of collaboration, CBRFC and JPL increased forecaster awareness of snow conditions via the MODIS datasets, which subsequently increased forecaster confidence in manual modifications to snowpack simulations. Indication of the presence or lack of snow by MODIS assisted CBRFC forecasters in determining the cause of divergence between modeled and gauged streamflow. Indication of albedo conditions at the snow surface provided supporting information about the potential for accelerated snowmelt rates. CBRFC and JPL also continued retrospective analysis of relationships between the remotely-sensed snow data and streamflow patterns. Utilization of remotely-sensed snow data is an important piece of the snowmelt-driven streamflow prediction challenge. The CBRFC-JPL collaboration is expected to continue over the next several years as CBRFC and JPL work together to improve estimates of snowpack conditions used in operational forecasting of snowmelt-driven streamflow.

  7. An empirical method for estimating future flood risks for flood warnings

    Microsoft Academic Search

    H. Hlavcova; S. Kohnova; R. Kubes; J. Szolgay; M. Zvolensky

    2005-01-01

    Since medium and long-term precipitation forecasts are still not reliable enough, rough estimates of the degree of the extremity of forthcoming flood events that might occur in the course of dangerous meteorological situations approaching a basin could be useful to decision-makers as additional information for flood warnings. One approach to answering such a problem is to use real-time data on

  8. Crowdsourcing detailed flood data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walliman, Nicholas; Ogden, Ray; Amouzad*, Shahrzhad

    2015-04-01

    Over the last decade the average annual loss across the European Union due to flooding has been 4.5bn Euros, but increasingly intense rainfall, as well as population growth, urbanisation and the rising costs of asset replacements, may see this rise to 23bn Euros a year by 2050. Equally disturbing are the profound social costs to individuals, families and communities which in addition to loss of lives include: loss of livelihoods, decreased purchasing and production power, relocation and migration, adverse psychosocial effects, and hindrance of economic growth and development. Flood prediction, management and defence strategies rely on the availability of accurate information and flood modelling. Whilst automated data gathering (by measurement and satellite) of the extent of flooding is already advanced it is least reliable in urban and physically complex geographies where often the need for precise estimation is most acute. Crowdsourced data of actual flood events is a potentially critical component of this allowing improved accuracy in situations and identifying the effects of local landscape and topography where the height of a simple kerb, or discontinuity in a boundary wall can have profound importance. Mobile 'App' based data acquisition using crowdsourcing in critical areas can combine camera records with GPS positional data and time, as well as descriptive data relating to the event. This will automatically produce a dataset, managed in ArcView GIS, with the potential for follow up calls to get more information through structured scripts for each strand. Through this local residents can provide highly detailed information that can be reflected in sophisticated flood protection models and be core to framing urban resilience strategies and optimising the effectiveness of investment. This paper will describe this pioneering approach that will develop flood event data in support of systems that will advance existing approaches such as developed in the in the UK in the more generalised RASP project (DEFRA and the Environment Agency), and in line with the expressed needs of the ABI (Association of British Insurers) and National Flood Forum. The detailed data produced will also support improved flood risk assessment for the provision of affordable insurance.

  9. A Decision Support System for Monitoring, Reporting, and Forecasting Ecological Conditions of the Appalachian National Scenic Trail

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    2012-01-01

    This project represents a collaborative multi-agency effort to support decision-making for the A.T. by providing a coherent framework for data integration, monitoring, reporting and forecasting. The A.T.-DSS integrates NASA multi-platform sensor data, NASA Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS) models, and in situ measurements from A.T. MEGA-Transect partners to address the management issues of the A.T. environment. The A.T.-DSS focuses on primary vital signs of phenology and climate, forest health and landscape dynamics, among others.

  10. Hydroclimate Forecasts in Ethiopia: Benefits, Impediments, and Ways Forward

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Block, P. J.

    2014-12-01

    Numerous hydroclimate forecast models, tools, and guidance exist for application across Ethiopia and East Africa in the agricultural, water, energy, disasters, and economic sectors. This has resulted from concerted local and international interdisciplinary efforts, yet little evidence exists of rapid forecast uptake and use. We will review projected benefits and gains of seasonal forecast application, impediments, and options for the way forward. Specific case studies regarding floods, agricultural-economic links, and hydropower will be reviewed.

  11. 44 CFR 63.3 - Requirement to be covered by a contract for flood insurance by June 1, 1988.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ...Requirement to be covered by a contract for flood insurance by June 1, 1988. 63.3...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IMPLEMENTATION OF SECTION 1306(c) OF THE NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE ACT OF 1968 General §...

  12. 44 CFR 63.3 - Requirement to be covered by a contract for flood insurance by June 1, 1988.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ...Requirement to be covered by a contract for flood insurance by June 1, 1988. 63.3...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IMPLEMENTATION OF SECTION 1306(c) OF THE NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE ACT OF 1968 General §...

  13. 44 CFR 63.3 - Requirement to be covered by a contract for flood insurance by June 1, 1988.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ...Requirement to be covered by a contract for flood insurance by June 1, 1988. 63.3...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IMPLEMENTATION OF SECTION 1306(c) OF THE NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE ACT OF 1968 General §...

  14. 44 CFR 63.3 - Requirement to be covered by a contract for flood insurance by June 1, 1988.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ...Requirement to be covered by a contract for flood insurance by June 1, 1988. 63.3...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IMPLEMENTATION OF SECTION 1306(c) OF THE NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE ACT OF 1968 General §...

  15. 44 CFR 63.3 - Requirement to be covered by a contract for flood insurance by June 1, 1988.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ...Requirement to be covered by a contract for flood insurance by June 1, 1988. 63.3...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IMPLEMENTATION OF SECTION 1306(c) OF THE NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE ACT OF 1968 General §...

  16. Rivers and Flooding Lab

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    Laurel Senft

    Understand flooding - why it occurs, how to measure the size and frequency of a flood, the relationship between size and flooding, and how human activity can increase the frequency of flooding events.

  17. The Hydroclimatology of Extreme Flooding in the Lower Mississippi River

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, James; Baeck, Mary Lynn

    2015-04-01

    The 1927 flood in the lower Mississippi River was the most destructive flood in American history, inundating more than 68,000 square kilometers of land, resulting in approximately 500 fatalities and leaving more than 700,000 people homeless. Despite the prominence of the 1927 flood, hard details on the flood, and the storms that produced the flood, are sparse. We examine the hydrometeorology, hydroclimatolgy and hydrology of the 1927 flood in the lower Mississippi River through empirical analyses of rainfall and streamflow records and through downscaling simulations of the storms that were responsible for cata-strophic flooding. We use 20th Century Reanalysis fields as boundary conditions and initial conditions for downscaling simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We place the hydrometeorological analyses of the 1927 storms in a hydroclimatolog-ical context through analyses of the 20th Century Reanalysis fields. Analyses are designed to assess the physical processes that control the upper tail of flooding in the lower Missis-sippi River. We compare the 1927 flood in the Lower Mississippi River to floods in 2011, 1937 and 1973 that represent the most extreme flooding in the Lower Mississippi River. Our results show that extreme flooding is tied to anomalous water vapor transport linked to strength and position of the North Atlantic Subtropical High. More generally, the results are designed to provide insights to the hydroclimatology of flooding in large rivers.

  18. 44 CFR 59.22 - Prerequisites for the sale of flood insurance.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ...participate in the National Flood Insurance Program... (3) A copy of the flood plain management regulations the community...subdivision regulations, health codes, special purpose ordinances (such as a flood plain ordinance,...

  19. 44 CFR 60.2 - Minimum compliance with flood plain management criteria.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ...2011-10-01 false Minimum compliance with flood plain management criteria. 60.2...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program CRITERIA FOR LAND MANAGEMENT AND USE Requirements for Flood Plain Management Regulations §...

  20. 44 CFR 65.6 - Revision of base flood elevation determinations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ...2011-10-01 false Revision of base flood elevation determinations. 65.6 Section...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IDENTIFICATION AND...HAZARD AREAS § 65.6 Revision of base flood elevation determinations. (a)...

  1. 44 CFR 60.24 - Planning considerations for flood-related erosion-prone areas.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ...2010-10-01 false Planning considerations for flood-related erosion-prone areas. 60...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program CRITERIA FOR LAND MANAGEMENT... Additional Considerations in Managing Flood-Prone, Mudslide (i.e.,...

  2. 44 CFR 65.16 - Standard Flood Hazard Determination Form and Instructions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ...2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Standard Flood Hazard Determination Form and Instructions...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IDENTIFICATION AND...SPECIAL HAZARD AREAS § 65.16 Standard Flood Hazard Determination Form and...

  3. 24 CFR 3285.102 - Installation of manufactured homes in flood hazard areas.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... Installation of manufactured homes in flood hazard areas. 3285.102 Section 3285... Installation of manufactured homes in flood hazard areas. (a) Definitions. ...defined in 44 CFR 59.1 of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)...

  4. 44 CFR 60.7 - Revisions of criteria for flood plain management regulations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... false Revisions of criteria for flood plain management regulations. 60...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program CRITERIA FOR LAND MANAGEMENT AND USE Requirements for Flood Plain Management Regulations §...

  5. 44 CFR 65.16 - Standard Flood Hazard Determination Form and Instructions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ...2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Standard Flood Hazard Determination Form and Instructions...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IDENTIFICATION AND...SPECIAL HAZARD AREAS § 65.16 Standard Flood Hazard Determination Form and...

  6. 44 CFR 66.3 - Establishment of community case file and flood elevation study docket.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ...Establishment of community case file and flood elevation study docket. 66.3 Section...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program CONSULTATION WITH LOCAL...Establishment of community case file and flood elevation study docket. (a)...

  7. 44 CFR 61.12 - Rates based on a flood protection system involving Federal funds.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ...2010-10-01 false Rates based on a flood protection system involving Federal funds...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program INSURANCE COVERAGE AND RATES § 61.12 Rates based on a flood protection system involving Federal...

  8. 44 CFR 65.11 - Evaluation of sand dunes in mapping coastal flood hazard areas.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ...Evaluation of sand dunes in mapping coastal flood hazard areas. 65.11 Section 65...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IDENTIFICATION AND...Evaluation of sand dunes in mapping coastal flood hazard areas. (a) General...

  9. 44 CFR 60.24 - Planning considerations for flood-related erosion-prone areas.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ...2011-10-01 false Planning considerations for flood-related erosion-prone areas. 60...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program CRITERIA FOR LAND MANAGEMENT... Additional Considerations in Managing Flood-Prone, Mudslide (i.e.,...

  10. 24 CFR 3285.102 - Installation of manufactured homes in flood hazard areas.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... Installation of manufactured homes in flood hazard areas. 3285.102 Section 3285... Installation of manufactured homes in flood hazard areas. (a) Definitions. ...defined in 44 CFR 59.1 of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)...

  11. 44 CFR 61.12 - Rates based on a flood protection system involving Federal funds.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ...2011-10-01 false Rates based on a flood protection system involving Federal funds...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program INSURANCE COVERAGE AND RATES § 61.12 Rates based on a flood protection system involving Federal...

  12. 44 CFR 66.3 - Establishment of community case file and flood elevation study docket.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ...Establishment of community case file and flood elevation study docket. 66.3 Section...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program CONSULTATION WITH LOCAL...Establishment of community case file and flood elevation study docket. (a)...

  13. 44 CFR 60.7 - Revisions of criteria for flood plain management regulations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... false Revisions of criteria for flood plain management regulations. 60...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program CRITERIA FOR LAND MANAGEMENT AND USE Requirements for Flood Plain Management Regulations §...

  14. 24 CFR 3285.102 - Installation of manufactured homes in flood hazard areas.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... Installation of manufactured homes in flood hazard areas. 3285.102 Section 3285... Installation of manufactured homes in flood hazard areas. (a) Definitions. ...defined in 44 CFR 59.1 of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)...

  15. 44 CFR 60.24 - Planning considerations for flood-related erosion-prone areas.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ...2013-10-01 false Planning considerations for flood-related erosion-prone areas. 60...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program CRITERIA FOR LAND MANAGEMENT... Additional Considerations in Managing Flood-Prone, Mudslide (i.e.,...

  16. 44 CFR 61.12 - Rates based on a flood protection system involving Federal funds.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ...2013-10-01 false Rates based on a flood protection system involving Federal funds...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program INSURANCE COVERAGE AND RATES § 61.12 Rates based on a flood protection system involving Federal...

  17. 44 CFR 66.3 - Establishment of community case file and flood elevation study docket.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ...Establishment of community case file and flood elevation study docket. 66.3 Section...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program CONSULTATION WITH LOCAL...Establishment of community case file and flood elevation study docket. (a)...

  18. 44 CFR 61.12 - Rates based on a flood protection system involving Federal funds.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ...2014-10-01 false Rates based on a flood protection system involving Federal funds...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program INSURANCE COVERAGE AND RATES § 61.12 Rates based on a flood protection system involving Federal...

  19. 44 CFR 59.22 - Prerequisites for the sale of flood insurance.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... false Prerequisites for the sale of flood insurance. 59.22 Section 59.22...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program GENERAL PROVISIONS...59.22 Prerequisites for the sale of flood insurance. (a) To qualify for...

  20. 44 CFR 60.7 - Revisions of criteria for flood plain management regulations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... false Revisions of criteria for flood plain management regulations. 60...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program CRITERIA FOR LAND MANAGEMENT AND USE Requirements for Flood Plain Management Regulations §...

  1. 44 CFR 66.3 - Establishment of community case file and flood elevation study docket.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ...Establishment of community case file and flood elevation study docket. 66.3 Section...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program CONSULTATION WITH LOCAL...Establishment of community case file and flood elevation study docket. (a)...

  2. 24 CFR 3285.102 - Installation of manufactured homes in flood hazard areas.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... Installation of manufactured homes in flood hazard areas. 3285.102 Section 3285... Installation of manufactured homes in flood hazard areas. (a) Definitions. ...defined in 44 CFR 59.1 of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)...

  3. 44 CFR 65.16 - Standard Flood Hazard Determination Form and Instructions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ...2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Standard Flood Hazard Determination Form and Instructions...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IDENTIFICATION AND...SPECIAL HAZARD AREAS § 65.16 Standard Flood Hazard Determination Form and...

  4. 44 CFR 59.22 - Prerequisites for the sale of flood insurance.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... false Prerequisites for the sale of flood insurance. 59.22 Section 59.22...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program GENERAL PROVISIONS...59.22 Prerequisites for the sale of flood insurance. (a) To qualify for...

  5. 44 CFR 60.24 - Planning considerations for flood-related erosion-prone areas.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ...2014-10-01 false Planning considerations for flood-related erosion-prone areas. 60...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program CRITERIA FOR LAND MANAGEMENT... Additional Considerations in Managing Flood-Prone, Mudslide (i.e.,...

  6. 44 CFR 65.16 - Standard Flood Hazard Determination Form and Instructions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ...2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Standard Flood Hazard Determination Form and Instructions...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IDENTIFICATION AND...SPECIAL HAZARD AREAS § 65.16 Standard Flood Hazard Determination Form and...

  7. 44 CFR 65.16 - Standard Flood Hazard Determination Form and Instructions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ...2012-10-01 2011-10-01 true Standard Flood Hazard Determination Form and Instructions...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IDENTIFICATION AND...SPECIAL HAZARD AREAS § 65.16 Standard Flood Hazard Determination Form and...

  8. 44 CFR 60.7 - Revisions of criteria for flood plain management regulations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ...2011-10-01 true Revisions of criteria for flood plain management regulations. 60...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program CRITERIA FOR LAND MANAGEMENT AND USE Requirements for Flood Plain Management Regulations §...

  9. 44 CFR 61.12 - Rates based on a flood protection system involving Federal funds.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ...2011-10-01 true Rates based on a flood protection system involving Federal funds...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program INSURANCE COVERAGE AND RATES § 61.12 Rates based on a flood protection system involving Federal...

  10. Densified GPS Estimates of Integrated Precipitable Water Vapor Improve Weather Forecasting during the North American Monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moore, A. W.; Small, I.; Gutman, S. I.; Bock, Y.; Dumas, J.; Haase, J. S.; Laber, J. L.

    2013-12-01

    Continuous GPS (CGPS) stations for observing crustal motion in the western U.S. now number more than 1200, with over 500 of them operating in real time. Tropospheric wet delay from real-time processing of the GPS data, along with co-located or nearby surface and temperature measurements, are being operationally converted to Integrated Precipitable Water Vapor (IPW) for evaluation as a forecasting tool (Gutman, 2011). The available density of real-time GPS in southern California now allows us to explore usage of densified GPS IPW in operational weather forecasting during weather conditions involving moisture extremes. Under a NASA Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) project, 27 southern California stations have been added to the NOAA GPS-Met observing network providing 30-minute estimates of IPW for ingestion into operational NOAA weather models, as well as for direct use by National Weather Service forecasters in monitoring developing weather conditions. The densified network proved advantageous in the 2013 North American Monsoon season, allowing forecasters to visualize rapid moisture increases at intervals between model runs and radiosonde observations and assisting in flood watch/warning decisions. We discuss the observed relationship between IPW and onset of precipitation in monsoon events in southern California and possibilities for additional decision support tools for forecasters.

  11. Flood Analysis

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    Integrated Teaching and Learning Program,

    Students learn how to use and graph real-world stream gage data to create event and annual hydrographs and calculate flood frequency statistics. Using an Excel spreadsheet of real-world event, annual and peak streamflow data, they manipulate the data (converting units, sorting, ranking, plotting), solve problems using equations, and calculate return periods and probabilities. Prompted by worksheet questions, they analyze the runoff data as engineers would. Students learn how hydrographs help engineers make decisions and recommendations to community stakeholders concerning water resources and flooding.

  12. New weather forecasting aid

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    A new, computerized weather analysis and display system developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is being used to provide air traffic controllers in Colorado with up-to-date information on weather systems that could affect aircraft within their control areas. The system, called PROFS (Prototype Regional Observing and Forecasting Services), was under development for four years at NOAA's Environmental Research Laboratories in Boulder, and is undergoing operational evaluation at the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA's) Denver Air Route Traffic Control Center in Longmont, Colo. FAA officials see the new system as a first step in upgrading the weather support services for the nation's air traffic control system. Originally created to help National Weather Service personnel with their forecasting duties (Eos, April 13, 1982, p. 233), the PROFS system was specially tailored for aviation use before being installed at the Longmont center. The system uses computers to process weather data from satellites, regional radar, wind profilers, a network of automated weather stations in eastern Colorado, and other sources, some of which are not normally available to forecasters. When this information is collected and formatted, weather personnel at the center can choose from several types of visual display on their terminals, depending on what information they require. The forecasters can then make printed copies of any display and distribute them within moments to controllers who use the information to alert air traffic to storms, wind shifts, and other weather disturbances.

  13. 44 CFR 73.3 - Denial of flood insurance coverage.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ...2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Denial of flood insurance coverage. 73.3 Section...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IMPLEMENTATION OF SECTION 1316 OF THE NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE ACT OF 1968 § 73.3...

  14. 44 CFR 73.3 - Denial of flood insurance coverage.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ...2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Denial of flood insurance coverage. 73.3 Section...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IMPLEMENTATION OF SECTION 1316 OF THE NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE ACT OF 1968 § 73.3...

  15. 44 CFR 73.3 - Denial of flood insurance coverage.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ...2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Denial of flood insurance coverage. 73.3 Section...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IMPLEMENTATION OF SECTION 1316 OF THE NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE ACT OF 1968 § 73.3...

  16. 44 CFR 73.3 - Denial of flood insurance coverage.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ...2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Denial of flood insurance coverage. 73.3 Section...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IMPLEMENTATION OF SECTION 1316 OF THE NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE ACT OF 1968 § 73.3...

  17. 44 CFR 73.3 - Denial of flood insurance coverage.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ...2012-10-01 2011-10-01 true Denial of flood insurance coverage. 73.3 Section...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IMPLEMENTATION OF SECTION 1316 OF THE NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE ACT OF 1968 § 73.3...

  18. The Effect of NEXRAD Image Looping and National Convective Weather Forecast Product on Pilot Decision Making in the Use of a Cockpit Weather Information Display

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Burgess, Malcolm A.; Thomas, Rickey P.

    2004-01-01

    This experiment investigated improvements to cockpit weather displays to better support the hazardous weather avoidance decision-making of general aviation pilots. Forty-eight general aviation pilots were divided into three equal groups and presented with a simulated flight scenario involving embedded convective activity. The control group had access to conventional sources of pre-flight and in-flight weather products. The two treatment groups were provided with a weather display that presented NEXRAD mosaic images, graphic depiction of METARs, and text METARs. One treatment group used a NEXRAD image looping feature and the second group used the National Convective Weather Forecast (NCWF) product overlaid on the NEXRAD display. Both of the treatment displays provided a significant increase in situation awareness but, they provided incomplete information required to deal with hazardous convective weather conditions, and would require substantial pilot training to permit their safe and effective use.

  19. Flood Cleanup

    MedlinePLUS

    ... epa.gov/naturalevents/hurricanes EPA's Office of Children’s Health - in the Aftermath of Floods - http://yosemite.epa.gov/ochp/ochpweb.nsf/content/ ... Carbon Monoxide Information Natural Emergencies [ en ... Federal Emergency Management Agency ( www.fema.gov ) Hurricane Response and Recovery ...

  20. Flooding Exercises

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    Stephen Nelson

    This homework exercise, developed for an undergraduate geology course at Tulane University, leads students through the steps involved in determining the probability that a flood of a given discharge will occur in any given year. Students retrieve discharge data from U.S. Geological Services Internet sites for Dry Creek, LA, Rapid Creek, SD and Red River, ND to make their calculations.

  1. Development of an Impact-Oriented Quantitative Coastal Inundation forecasting and early warning system with social and economic assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fakhruddin, S. H. M.; Babel, Mukand S.; Kawasaki, Akiyuki

    2014-05-01

    Coastal inundations are an increasing threat to the lives and livelihoods of people living in low-lying, highly-populated coastal areas. According to a World Bank Report in 2005, at least 2.6 million people may have drowned due to coastal inundation, particularly caused by storm surges, over the last 200 years. Forecasting and prediction of natural events, such as tropical and extra-tropical cyclones, inland flooding, and severe winter weather, provide critical guidance to emergency managers and decision-makers from the local to the national level, with the goal of minimizing both human and economic losses. This guidance is used to facilitate evacuation route planning, post-disaster response and resource deployment, and critical infrastructure protection and securing, and it must be available within a time window in which decision makers can take appropriate action. Recognizing this extreme vulnerability of coastal areas to inundation/flooding, and with a view to improve safety-related services for the community, research should strongly enhance today's forecasting, prediction and early warning capabilities in order to improve the assessment of coastal vulnerability and risks and develop adequate prevention, mitigation and preparedness measures. This paper tries to develop an impact-oriented quantitative coastal inundation forecasting and early warning system with social and economic assessment to address the challenges faced by coastal communities to enhance their safety and to support sustainable development, through the improvement of coastal inundation forecasting and warning systems.

  2. Monitoring and research to describe geomorphic effects of the 2011 controlled flood on the Green River in the Canyon of Lodore, Dinosaur National Monument, Colorado and Utah

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mueller, Erich R.; Grams, Paul E.; Schmidt, John C.; Hazel, Joseph E., Jr.; Kaplinski, Matt; Alexander, Jason A.; Kohl, Keith

    2014-01-01

    In 2011, a large magnitude flow release from Flaming Gorge Reservoir, Wyoming and Utah, occurred in response to high snowpack in the middle Rocky Mountains. This was the third highest recorded discharge along the Green River downstream of Flaming Gorge Dam, Utah, since its initial closure in November 1962 and motivated a research effort to document effects of these flows on channel morphology and sedimentology at four long-term monitoring sites within the Canyon of Lodore in Dinosaur National Monument, Colorado and Utah. Data collected in September 2011 included raft-based bathymetric surveys, ground-based surveys of banks, channel cross sections and vegetation-plot locations, sand-bar stratigraphy, and painted rock recovery on gravel bars. As part of this surveying effort, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data were collected at benchmarks on the canyon rim and along the river corridor to establish a high-resolution survey control network. This survey control network allows for the collection of repeatable spatial and elevation data necessary for high accuracy geomorphic change detection. Nearly 10,000 ground survey points and more than 20,000 bathymetric points (at 1-meter resolution) were collected over a 5-day field campaign, allowing for the construction of reach-scale digital elevation models (DEMs). Additionally, we evaluated long-term geomorphic change at these sites using repeat topographic surveys of eight monumented cross sections at each of the four sites. Analysis of DEMs and channel cross sections show a spatially variable pattern of erosion and deposition, both within and between reaches. As much as 5 meters of scour occurred in pools downstream from flow constrictions, especially in channel segments where gravel bars were absent. By contrast, some channel cross sections were stable during the 2011 floods, and have shown almost no change in over a decade of monitoring. Partial mobility of gravel bars occurred, and although in some locations vegetation such as tamarisk (Tamarix ramosissima) was damaged, wholesale bed motion necessary to fully clear these surfaces was not evident. In flow recirculation zones, eddy sandbars aggraded one meter or more, increasing the area of bars exposed during typical dam operations. Yet overall, the 2011 flood resulted in a decrease in reach-scale sand storage because bed degradation exceeded bar deposition. The 2011 response is consistent with that of a similar event in 1999, which was followed by sand-bar erosion and sediment accumulation on the bed during subsequent years of normal dam operational flows. Although the 1999 and 2011 floods were exceptional in the post-dam system, they did not exceed the pre-dam 2-year flood, isolating their effects to the modern active channel with minor erosion or reworking of pre-dam deposits stabilized through vegetation encroachment.

  3. Seasonal hydrological ensemble forecasts over Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnal, Louise; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Pappenberger, Florian

    2015-04-01

    Seasonal forecasts have an important socio-economic value in hydro-meteorological forecasting. The applications are for example hydropower management, spring flood prediction and water resources management. The latter includes prediction of low flows, primordial for navigation, water quality assessment, droughts and agricultural water needs. Traditionally, seasonal hydrological forecasts are done using the observed discharge from previous years, so called Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP). With the recent increasing development of seasonal meteorological forecasts, the incentive for developing and improving seasonal hydrological forecasts is great. In this study, a seasonal hydrological forecast, driven by the ECMWF's System 4 (SEA), was compared with an ESP of modelled discharge using observations. The hydrological model used for both forecasts was the LISFLOOD model, run over a European domain with a spatial resolution of 5 km. The forecasts were produced from 1990 until the present time, with a daily time step. They were issued once a month with a lead time of seven months. The SEA forecasts are constituted of 15 ensemble members, extended to 51 members every three months. The ESP forecasts comprise 20 ensembles and served as a benchmark for this comparative study. The forecast systems were compared using a diverse set of verification metrics, such as continuous ranked probability scores, ROC curves, anomaly correlation coefficients and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients. These metrics were computed over several time-scales, ranging from a weekly to a six-months basis, for each season. The evaluation enabled the investigation of several aspects of seasonal forecasting, such as limits of predictability, timing of high and low flows, as well as exceedance of percentiles. The analysis aimed at exploring the spatial distribution and timely evolution of the limits of predictability.

  4. Comparing Non-homogeneous Gaussian Regression and Bayesian Model Averaging for post-processing hydrological ensemble forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, Paul; Pappenberger, Florian

    2015-04-01

    Bayesian Model Averaging and Non-homogeneous Gaussian Regression have been proposed as techniques for post-processing ensemble forecasts into predictive probability distributions. Both methods make use of past forecast data for which observations are available to propose weights for the ensemble members along with bias and dispersion corrections. The mathematical basis and application of these methods though differs significantly. In this work we contrast the forecast results derived using these methods within the European Flood Awareness System, an operational flood forecasting system covering Europe. The performance of the different methods at lead times up to 15 days is compared at multiple sites and for notable flood events.

  5. Fires, Floods, and Hurricanes: Is ENSO to Blame?

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    James W. Mjelde

    2007-03-01

    Scientists have associated the El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon with extreme climate events such as flooding in California, droughts in Australia, fires in Indonesia, and increased hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean. Because most textbooks fail to adequately cover this important topic, an ENSO learning experience was developed that is directed toward middle level students. It teaches them about climate science and forecasting with an in-depth study of ENSO. This article focuses on the ENSO-related material located on the DECIDE website (see Resources), a resource developed by teachers at Texas AandM University and College Station Independent School District with funding from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

  6. Sediment Transport During Three Controlled-Flood Experiments on the Colorado River Downstream from Glen Canyon Dam, with Implications for Eddy-Sandbar Deposition in Grand Canyon National Park

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Topping, David J.; Rubin, David M.; Grams, Paul E.; Griffiths, Ronald E.; Sabol, Thomas A.; Voichick, Nicholas; Tusso, Robert B.; Vanaman, Karen M.; McDonald, Richard R.

    2010-01-01

    Three large-scale field experiments were conducted on the Colorado River downstream from Glen Canyon Dam in 1996, 2004, and 2008 to evaluate whether artificial (that is, controlled) floods released from the dam could be used in conjunction with the sand supplied by downstream tributaries to rebuild and sustainably maintain eddy sandbars in the river in Grand Canyon National Park. Higher suspended-sand concentrations during a controlled flood will lead to greater eddy-sandbar deposition rates. During each controlled flood experiment, sediment-transport and bed-sediment data were collected to evaluate sediment-supply effects on sandbar deposition. Data collection substantially increased in spatial and temporal density with each subsequent experiment. The suspended- and bed-sediment data collected during all three controlled-flood experiments are presented and analyzed in this report. Analysis of these data indicate that in designing the hydrograph of a controlled flood that is optimized for sandbar deposition in a given reach of the Colorado River, both the magnitude and the grain size of the sand supply must be considered. Because of the opposing physical effects of bed-sand area and bed-sand grain size in regulating suspended-sand concentration, larger amounts of coarser sand on the bed can lead to lower suspended-sand concentrations, and thus lower rates of sandbar deposition, during a controlled flood than can lesser amounts of finer sand on the bed. Although suspended-sand concentrations were higher at all study sites during the 2008 controlled-flood experiment (CFE) than during either the 1996 or 2004 CFEs, these higher concentrations were likely associated with more sand on the bed of the Colorado River in only lower Glen Canyon. More sand was likely present on the bed of the river in Grand Canyon during the 1996 CFE than during either the 2004 or 2008 CFEs. The question still remains as to whether sandbars can be sustained in the Colorado River in Grand Canyon National Park through use of controlled floods in conjunction with typical amounts and grain sizes of sand supplied by the tributaries that enter the Colorado River downstream from Glen Canyon Dam.

  7. Survey of foodservice production forecasting.

    PubMed

    Repko, C J; Miller, J L

    1990-08-01

    Assessment of the state of practice in forecasting production demand in foodservice operations is needed to provide a base for research in model development and implementation. A survey to document the forecasting techniques utilized by foodservice directors was administered to the 464 members of the National Association of College and University Food Services; 282 questionnaires (60.7%) were returned. Fewer than 16% of the respondents used mathematical models for forecasting demand. The moving average technique was the most frequently used mathematical model (8.5%). Variations of the naive or nonmathematical model were used by the majority of respondents. Judgment based on the past records was the most frequently cited variation (89.4%). The foodservice director/manager was the person most frequently responsible for forecasting decisions (83.7%). Typically, determining production demand was conducted 1 week in advance (36.5%). Computers were used by fewer than 38% of respondents for production forecasting. Approximately 79% indicated that forecasting was very important. Respondents indicated a need for improvement in practice and additional training in the area of forecasting. Therefore, continuing education in forecasting should remain a priority for dietetic practitioners. PMID:2380453

  8. Assessing the Capability of a Regional-Scale Weather Model to Simulate Extreme Precipitation Patterns and Flooding in Central Texas

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Marla R. Knebl Lowrey; Zong-Liang Yang

    2008-01-01

    A regional-scale weather model is used to determine the potential for flood forecasting based on model- predicted rainfall. Extreme precipitation and flooding events are a significant concern in central Texas, due to both the high occurrence and severity of flooding in the area. However, many current regional prediction models do not provide sufficient accuracy at the watershed scale necessary for

  9. Effects of the duration of flooding on species richness and floristic composition in three hectares in the Jau´ National Park in floodplain forests in central Amazonia

    Microsoft Academic Search

    LEANDRO VALLE FERREIRA

    1997-01-01

    Rivers in Central Amazonia show annual water level fluctuations of up to 14m; the flooding period ranges from 50 to 270 days between the rising and falling phases. Differences in duration and type of flood in Amazonian floodplain forests result in a mosaic of habitats which include lakes, grasslands, forests, streams etc. To study the floristic composition, structure, variation on

  10. Flood-hydrology data for the Potomac River and selected tributaries in the vicinity of the Chesapeake and Ohio Canal National Historical Park, Maryland, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Doheny, Edward J.

    1997-01-01

    This report presents flood-hydrology data for the Potomac River and selected tributaries in the vicinity of the Chesapeake and Ohio Canal National Park (C & O Canal NHP). Data were compiled for the floods of (1) March 17-19, 1936; (2) June 22-24, 1972; (3) November 4-7, 1985; (4) January 19-21, 1996; (5) September 6-8, 1996; and (6) the peak of record for 6 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging stations on the Potomac River and 10 streamflow-gaging stations on selected tributaries to the Potomac River. Peak discharge, peak gage height, the date and time of the peak, and approximate recurrence interval are presented for each flood event at these streamflow-gaging stations.Data compiled from selected high-flow discharge measurements on the six Potomac River streamflow- gaging stations are presented. The gage height, top width, cross-sectional area, mean velocity, maximum velocity, and discharge are presented for each selected discharge measurement. Any corresponding discharge on the C & O Canal that was measured or estimated for these dischrge measurements is presented. Ranges of Manning's roughness coefficient were computed for the range of selected discharge measurements, based on estimates of water-surface slope or the channel-bed slope. These data will be used for subsequent hydraulic studies by engineers for maintenance, protection, or restoration of the C & O Canal. An inventory of selected references, flood studies, and additional USGS data along the Potomac River and the C & O Canal NHP also are presented. Included are (1) a listing of selected flood studies and reports, and (2) a listing of USGS indirect flood-discharge measurements that have been made at the six Potomac River streamflow-gaging stations in the vicinity of the C & O Canal NHP. Information on historical streamflow-gaging station records and discharge measurements on the C & O Canal also is presented.

  11. The Financial Benefit of Early Flood Warnings in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pappenberger, Florian; Cloke, Hannah L.; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Parker, Dennis J.; Richardson, David; Thielen, Jutta

    2015-04-01

    Effective disaster risk management relies on science based solutions to close the gap between prevention and preparedness measures. The outcome of consultations on the UNIDSR post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction highlight the need for cross-border early warning systems to strengthen the preparedness phases of disaster risk management in order to save people's lives and property and reduce the overall impact of severe events. In particular, continental and global scale flood forecasting systems provide vital information to various decision makers with which early warnings of floods can be made. Here the potential monetary benefits of early flood warnings using the example of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) are calculated based on pan-European Flood damage data and calculations of potential flood damage reductions. The benefits are of the order of 400 Euro for every 1 Euro invested. Because of the uncertainties which accompany the calculation, a large sensitivity analysis is performed in order to develop an envelope of possible financial benefits. Current EFAS system skill is compared against perfect forecasts to demonstrate the importance of further improving the skill of the forecasts. Improving the response to warnings is also essential in reaping the benefits of flood early warnings.

  12. Newton's Apple: Floods

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    Lesson plan on floods provides background information, compares the roles of wetlands and flood plains in a river's natural flood control with the pros and cons of engineered flood control. Includes glossary, resources and additional sources of information, discussion questions. Student activity demonstrates water movement on a wide flood plain and narrow channel.

  13. Flood Plain Management. 

    E-print Network

    McNeely, John G.; Lacewell, Ronald D.

    1976-01-01

    characteristics fairly representative for the en- tire length of each reach. Flood frequency data for the various streams in the study are developed from dis- charge-frequency relationships based on regionalized hydrologic analyses. Using the peak discharges... Contents Introduction.. .................................... 4 Agricultural Flood Plain Management ............... Flood Hazard Studies ............................. Federal Flood Insurance .......................... 11 Flood Insurance...

  14. MOUNTAIN WEATHER PREDICTION: PHENOMENOLOGICAL CHALLENGES AND FORECAST METHODOLOGY

    E-print Network

    Steenburgh, Jim

    MOUNTAIN WEATHER PREDICTION: PHENOMENOLOGICAL CHALLENGES AND FORECAST METHODOLOGY Michael P. Meyers NOAA/National Weather Service, Grand Junction, Colorado and W. James Steenburgh Department of the American Meteorological Society Mountain Weather and Forecasting Monograph Draft from Friday, May 21, 2010

  15. BASELINE EMISSIONS FORECASTS FOR INDUSTRIAL NON-BOILER SOURCES

    EPA Science Inventory

    The report gives regional air emission forecasts from three Process Model Projection Technique (PROMPT) runs. These estimates illustrate a range of possible future emissions. PROMPT, one of a number of National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program emission forecasting models, pr...

  16. Development of Flood GIS Database of River Indus using RS and GIS Techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siddiqui, Z.; Farooq, M.; Shah, S.

    Remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) are information technologies that furnish a broad range of tools to assist in preparing for the next flood and for obtaining vital information about the flood plain. This type of information is used to improve flood forecasting and preparedness, monitoring flood conditions, assess flood damage, relief efforts, flood control etc. Severe floods of varied magnitudes have occurred in the river Indus and its tributaries viz; Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej during the past three decades covering the Indus flood plain from Cheshma Barrage in the province of Punjab to downstream of Kotri Barrage in the souh of Sindh province of Pakistan. Digital mapping of different floods in the Indus Basin was carried out using both MSS and TM data of Landsat yielding flood maps. These maps depict flood extent and other relevant information in the flood plain. In order to create comprehensive GIS database, various hydrologic information such as rainfall, river discharge, canal withdrawal, embankment, breach etc. were incorporated. Flood database provide comprehensive information both in separate layer and combination of multiple layers pertaining to floods that occurred in the past three decades . GIS database on flood provides easy access to updated in-situ geographic information to planners and irrigation engineers concerned with overall river Indus operation and management system. GIS database of Indus floods can als o be used to improve the efficiency of decision making and management by collecting, organizing and integrating geographic, environmental and socio-economic spatial data and information.

  17. Federal Flood Assessment Conference Recommendations and Proceedings 

    E-print Network

    Reyes, Silvestre; Brock, Peter; Michelsen, Ari

    2006-09-06

    and severe localized and widespread flooding. According to the National Weather service, the July 31 to August 4 rains alone were more like a 100-150 year recurring event over the areas hardest hit. These floods that continued over a period of more than a...

  18. Ensemble Forecasts with Useful Skill-Spread Relationships for African meningitis and Asia Streamflow Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hopson, T. M.

    2014-12-01

    One potential benefit of an ensemble prediction system (EPS) is its capacity to forecast its own forecast error through the ensemble spread-error relationship. In practice, an EPS is often quite limited in its ability to represent the variable expectation of forecast error through the variable dispersion of the ensemble, and perhaps more fundamentally, in its ability to provide enough variability in the ensembles dispersion to make the skill-spread relationship even potentially useful (irrespective of whether the EPS is well-calibrated or not). In this paper we examine the ensemble skill-spread relationship of an ensemble constructed from the TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) dataset of global forecasts and a combination of multi-model and post-processing approaches. Both of the multi-model and post-processing techniques are based on quantile regression (QR) under a step-wise forward selection framework leading to ensemble forecasts with both good reliability and sharpness. The methodology utilizes the ensemble's ability to self-diagnose forecast instability to produce calibrated forecasts with informative skill-spread relationships. A context for these concepts is provided by assessing the constructed ensemble in forecasting district-level humidity impacting the incidence of meningitis in the meningitis belt of Africa, and in forecasting flooding events in the Brahmaputra and Ganges basins of South Asia.

  19. Information Forecasting.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hanneman, Gerhard J.

    Information forecasting provides a means of anticipating future message needs of a society or predicting the necessary types of information that will allow smooth social functioning. Periods of unrest and uncertainty in societies contribute to "societal information overload," whereby an abundance of information channels can create communication…

  20. Reasonable Forecasts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taylor, Kelley R.

    2010-01-01

    This article presents a sample legal battle that illustrates school officials' "reasonable forecasts" of substantial disruption in the school environment. In 2006, two students from a Texas high school came to school carrying purses decorated with images of the Confederate flag. The school district has a zero-tolerance policy for clothing or…

  1. Flood Modelling in Jakarta 

    E-print Network

    Diamantidis, Georgios

    2009-11-26

    Flooding is a major issue that affects the well being of a big part of the global population. This project is concerned with flooding caused by extreme rainfall events. Its aim is the development of a flood prediction ...

  2. Tsunami Forecast for Galapagos Islands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Renteria, W.

    2012-04-01

    The objective of this study is to present a model for the short-term and long-term tsunami forecast for Galapagos Islands. For both cases the ComMIT/MOST(Titov,et al 2011) numerical model and methodology have been used. The results for the short-term model has been compared with the data from Lynett et al, 2011 surveyed from the impacts of the March/11 in the Galapagos Islands. For the case of long-term forecast, several scenarios have run along the Pacific, an extreme flooding map is obtained, the method is considered suitable for places with poor or without tsunami impact information, but under tsunami risk geographic location.

  3. 44 CFR 65.5 - Revision to special hazard area boundaries with no change to base flood elevation determinations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ...hazard area boundaries with no change to base flood elevation determinations. 65.5 Section...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IDENTIFICATION AND...hazard area boundaries with no change to base flood elevation determinations. (a)...

  4. 44 CFR 65.5 - Revision to special hazard area boundaries with no change to base flood elevation determinations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ...hazard area boundaries with no change to base flood elevation determinations. 65.5 Section...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IDENTIFICATION AND...hazard area boundaries with no change to base flood elevation determinations. (a)...

  5. 44 CFR 61.11 - Effective date and time of coverage under the Standard Flood Insurance Policy-New Business...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ...and time of coverage under the Standard Flood Insurance Policy-New Business Applications...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program INSURANCE COVERAGE...and time of coverage under the Standard Flood Insurance Policy—New Business...

  6. 44 CFR 60.12 - Flood plain management criteria for State-owned properties in special hazard areas.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ...2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Flood plain management criteria for State-owned...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program CRITERIA FOR LAND MANAGEMENT AND USE Requirements for State Flood Plain Management Regulations §...

  7. 44 CFR 60.12 - Flood plain management criteria for State-owned properties in special hazard areas.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ...2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Flood plain management criteria for State-owned...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program CRITERIA FOR LAND MANAGEMENT AND USE Requirements for State Flood Plain Management Regulations §...

  8. 44 CFR 61.11 - Effective date and time of coverage under the Standard Flood Insurance Policy-New Business...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ...and time of coverage under the Standard Flood Insurance Policy-New Business Applications...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program INSURANCE COVERAGE...and time of coverage under the Standard Flood Insurance Policy—New Business...

  9. 44 CFR 61.11 - Effective date and time of coverage under the Standard Flood Insurance Policy-New Business...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ...and time of coverage under the Standard Flood Insurance Policy-New Business Applications...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program INSURANCE COVERAGE...and time of coverage under the Standard Flood Insurance Policy—New Business...

  10. 44 CFR 60.12 - Flood plain management criteria for State-owned properties in special hazard areas.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ...2012-10-01 2011-10-01 true Flood plain management criteria for State-owned...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program CRITERIA FOR LAND MANAGEMENT AND USE Requirements for State Flood Plain Management Regulations §...

  11. 44 CFR 61.11 - Effective date and time of coverage under the Standard Flood Insurance Policy-New Business...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ...and time of coverage under the Standard Flood Insurance Policy-New Business Applications...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program INSURANCE COVERAGE...and time of coverage under the Standard Flood Insurance Policy—New Business...

  12. > BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS

    E-print Network

    Greenslade, Diana

    > BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS BRISBANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS The Bureau of Meteorology is progressively upgrading its forecast system to provide more detailed forecasts across Australia and Sunshine Coast. FURTHER INFORMATION : www.bom.gov.au/NexGenFWS © Commonwealth of Australia, 2013 Links

  13. 44 CFR 71.3 - Denial of flood insurance.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ...2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Denial of flood insurance. 71.3 Section 71.3...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IMPLEMENTATION OF COASTAL...BARRIER LEGISLATION § 71.3 Denial of flood insurance. (a) No new...

  14. 44 CFR 71.3 - Denial of flood insurance.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ...2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Denial of flood insurance. 71.3 Section 71.3...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IMPLEMENTATION OF COASTAL...BARRIER LEGISLATION § 71.3 Denial of flood insurance. (a) No new...

  15. Supporting technology for enhanced oil recovery: Chemical flood predictive model

    Microsoft Academic Search

    R. M. Ray; J. D. Munoz

    1986-01-01

    The Chemical Flood Predictive Model (CFPM) was developed by Scientific Software-Intercomp for the US Department of Energy and was used in the National Petroleum Council's (NPC) 1984 survey of US enhanced oil recovery potential (NPC, 1984). The CFPM models micellar (surfactant)-polymer (MP) floods in reservoirs which have been previously waterflooded to residual oil saturation. Thus, only true tertiary floods are

  16. 44 CFR 71.3 - Denial of flood insurance.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ...2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Denial of flood insurance. 71.3 Section 71.3...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IMPLEMENTATION OF COASTAL...BARRIER LEGISLATION § 71.3 Denial of flood insurance. (a) No new...

  17. 44 CFR 71.3 - Denial of flood insurance.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ...2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Denial of flood insurance. 71.3 Section 71.3...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IMPLEMENTATION OF COASTAL...BARRIER LEGISLATION § 71.3 Denial of flood insurance. (a) No new...

  18. 44 CFR 71.3 - Denial of flood insurance.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ...2012-10-01 2011-10-01 true Denial of flood insurance. 71.3 Section 71.3...INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IMPLEMENTATION OF COASTAL...BARRIER LEGISLATION § 71.3 Denial of flood insurance. (a) No new...

  19. 44 CFR 73.4 - Restoration of flood insurance coverage.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ...Assistance 1 2012-10-01 2011-10-01 true Restoration of flood insurance coverage. 73.4 Section 73.4...1316 OF THE NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE ACT OF 1968 § 73.4 Restoration of flood insurance coverage. (a) Insurance...

  20. 75 FR 82272 - Changes in Flood Elevation Determinations

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-12-30

    ...participation in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP...Regulatory Flexibility Act. As flood elevation determinations are...of Subjects in 44 CFR Part 65 Flood insurance, Floodplains, Reporting...Mayor, City of The Tulsa World. Tulsa, 175 East 2nd...

  1. 76 FR 37893 - Loans in Areas Having Special Flood Hazards

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-06-28

    ...Loans in Areas Having Special Flood Hazards AGENCY: Office of Thrift...post comments and the related index on the OTS Internet Site at...Loans in Areas Having Special Flood Hazards. OMB Number: 1550-0088...Description: The National Flood Insurance Act of 1968 (42...

  2. A Wind Forecasting System for Energy Application

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Courtney, Jennifer; Lynch, Peter; Sweeney, Conor

    2010-05-01

    Accurate forecasting of available energy is crucial for the efficient management and use of wind power in the national power grid. With energy output critically dependent upon wind strength there is a need to reduce the errors associated wind forecasting. The objective of this research is to get the best possible wind forecasts for the wind energy industry. To achieve this goal, three methods are being applied. First, a mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model called WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) is being used to predict wind values over Ireland. Currently, a gird resolution of 10km is used and higher model resolutions are being evaluated to establish whether they are economically viable given the forecast skill improvement they produce. Second, the WRF model is being used in conjunction with ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ensemble forecasts to produce a probabilistic weather forecasting product. Due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, a single, deterministic weather forecast can only have limited skill. The ECMWF ensemble methods produce an ensemble of 51 global forecasts, twice a day, by perturbing initial conditions of a 'control' forecast which is the best estimate of the initial state of the atmosphere. This method provides an indication of the reliability of the forecast and a quantitative basis for probabilistic forecasting. The limitation of ensemble forecasting lies in the fact that the perturbed model runs behave differently under different weather patterns and each model run is equally likely to be closest to the observed weather situation. Models have biases, and involve assumptions about physical processes and forcing factors such as underlying topography. Third, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is being applied to the output from the ensemble forecasts in order to statistically post-process the results and achieve a better wind forecasting system. BMA is a promising technique that will offer calibrated probabilistic wind forecasts which will be invaluable in wind energy management. In brief, this method turns the ensemble forecasts into a calibrated predictive probability distribution. Each ensemble member is provided with a 'weight' determined by its relative predictive skill over a training period of around 30 days. Verification of data is carried out using observed wind data from operational wind farms. These are then compared to existing forecasts produced by ECMWF and Met Eireann in relation to skill scores. We are developing decision-making models to show the benefits achieved using the data produced by our wind energy forecasting system. An energy trading model will be developed, based on the rules currently used by the Single Electricity Market Operator for energy trading in Ireland. This trading model will illustrate the potential for financial savings by using the forecast data generated by this research.

  3. 100-Year Flood-It's All About Chance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holmes, Robert R.; Dinicola, Karen

    2010-01-01

    In the 1960's, the United States government decided to use the 1-percent annual exceedance probability (AEP) flood as the basis for the National Flood Insurance Program. The 1-percent AEP flood was thought to be a fair balance between protecting the public and overly stringent regulation. Because the 1-percent AEP flood has a 1 in 100 chance of being equaled or exceeded in any 1 year, and it has an average recurrence interval of 100 years, it often is referred to as the '100-year flood'. The term '100-year flood' is part of the national lexicon, but is often a source of confusion by those not familiar with flood science and statistics. This poster is an attempt to explain the concept, probabilistic nature, and inherent uncertainties of the '100-year flood' to the layman.

  4. TRAVEL FORECASTER

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mauldin, L. E.

    1994-01-01

    Business travel planning within an organization is often a time-consuming task. Travel Forecaster is a menu-driven, easy-to-use program which plans, forecasts cost, and tracks actual vs. planned cost for business-related travel of a division or branch of an organization and compiles this information into a database to aid the travel planner. The program's ability to handle multiple trip entries makes it a valuable time-saving device. Travel Forecaster takes full advantage of relational data base properties so that information that remains constant, such as per diem rates and airline fares (which are unique for each city), needs entering only once. A typical entry would include selection with the mouse of the traveler's name and destination city from pop-up lists, and typed entries for number of travel days and purpose of the trip. Multiple persons can be selected from the pop-up lists and multiple trips are accommodated by entering the number of days by each appropriate month on the entry form. An estimated travel cost is not required of the user as it is calculated by a Fourth Dimension formula. With this information, the program can produce output of trips by month with subtotal and total cost for either organization or sub-entity of an organization; or produce outputs of trips by month with subtotal and total cost for international-only travel. It will also provide monthly and cumulative formats of planned vs. actual outputs in data or graph form. Travel Forecaster users can do custom queries to search and sort information in the database, and it can create custom reports with the user-friendly report generator. Travel Forecaster 1.1 is a database program for use with Fourth Dimension Runtime 2.1.1. It requires a Macintosh Plus running System 6.0.3 or later, 2Mb of RAM and a hard disk. The standard distribution medium for this package is one 3.5 inch 800K Macintosh format diskette. Travel Forecaster was developed in 1991. Macintosh is a registered trademark of Apple Computer, Inc. Fourth Dimension is a registered trademark of Acius, Inc.

  5. Implementing the EU Floods Directive (2007/60/EC) in Austria: Flood Risk Management Plans

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neuhold, Clemens

    2013-04-01

    he Directive 2007/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2007 on the assessment and management of flood risks (EFD) aims at the reduction of the adverse consequences for human health, the environment, cultural heritage and economic activity associated with floods in the Community. This task is to be achieved based on three process steps (1) preliminary flood risk assessment (finalised by the end of 2011), (2) flood hazard maps and flood risk maps (due 2013) and (3) flood risk management plans (due 2015). Currently, an interdisciplinary national working group is defining the methodological framework for flood risk management plans in Austria supported by a constant exchange with international bodies and experts. Referring to the EFD the components of the flood risk management plan are (excerpt): 1. conclusions of the preliminary flood risk assessment 2. flood hazard maps and flood risk maps and the conclusions that can be drawn from those maps 3. a description of the appropriate objectives of flood risk management 4. a summary of measures and their prioritisation aiming to achieve the appropriate objectives of flood risk management The poster refers to some of the major challenges in this process, such as the legal provisions, coordination of administrative units, definition of public relations, etc. The implementation of the EFD requires the harmonisation of legal instruments of various disciplines (e.g. water management, spatial planning, civil protection) enabling a coordinated - and ideally binding - practice of flood risk management. This process is highly influenced by the administrative organisation in Austria - federal, provincial and municipality level. The Austrian approach meets this organisational framework by structuring the development of the flood risk management plan into 3 time-steps: (a) federal blueprint, (b) provincial editing and (c) federal finishing as well as reporting to the European Commission. Each time-step addresses different administrative levels and spatial scales accompanied by the active involvement of interested parties.

  6. Rainfall-River Forecasting Colonel Thatch Shepard

    E-print Network

    US Army Corps of Engineers

    Division October 19, 2009 #12;BUILDING STRONG® Northwestern Division Mississippi Valley Division Great engineering solutions that will reduce risks through the reduction of flood damage potential, maintain to respond to Regional and National emergencies. #12;BUILDING STRONG® Regional Flood Risk Management Team

  7. Prospects for development of unified global flood observation and prediction systems (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2013-12-01

    Floods are among the most damaging of natural hazards, with global flood losses in 2011 alone estimated to have exceeded $100B. Historically, flood economic damages have been highest in the developed world (due in part to encroachment on historical flood plains), but loss of life, and human impacts have been greatest in the developing world. However, as the 2011 Thailand floods show, industrializing countries, many of which do not have well developed flood protection systems, are increasingly vulnerable to economic damages as they become more industrialized. At present, unified global flood observation and prediction systems are in their infancy; notwithstanding that global weather forecasting is a mature field. The summary for this session identifies two evolving capabilities that hold promise for development of more sophisticated global flood forecast systems: global hydrologic models and satellite remote sensing (primarily of precipitation, but also of flood inundation). To this I would add the increasing sophistication and accuracy of global precipitation analysis (and forecast) fields from numerical weather prediction models. In this brief overview, I will review progress in all three areas, and especially the evolution of hydrologic data assimilation which integrates modeling and data sources. I will also comment on inter-governmental and inter-agency cooperation, and related issues that have impeded progress in the development and utilization of global flood observation and prediction systems.

  8. Franklin's Forecast

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    Weather related information that includes weather satellites (their history, science, and imaging), Radar (history, detection, and types), and lightning (how it happens and detection) can be found on this site. An interactive section allows users to practice forecasting. There are links to up-to-date weather information and a make your own weather station project. The El Nino section discusses major topics surrounding this weather phenomenon. For teachers, there are links to more activities and a curriculum connection section.

  9. Using high-resolution future climate scenarios to forecast Bromus tectorum invasion in Rocky Mountain National Park.

    PubMed

    West, Amanda M; Kumar, Sunil; Wakie, Tewodros; Brown, Cynthia S; Stohlgren, Thomas J; Laituri, Melinda; Bromberg, Jim

    2015-01-01

    National Parks are hallmarks of ecosystem preservation in the United States. The introduction of alien invasive plant species threatens protection of these areas. Bromus tectorum L. (commonly called downy brome or cheatgrass), which is found in Rocky Mountain National Park (hereafter, the Park), Colorado, USA, has been implicated in early spring competition with native grasses, decreased soil nitrogen, altered nutrient and hydrologic regimes, and increased fire intensity. We estimated the potential distribution of B. tectorum in the Park based on occurrence records (n = 211), current and future climate, and distance to roads and trails. An ensemble of six future climate scenarios indicated the habitable area of B. tectorum may increase from approximately 5.5% currently to 20.4% of the Park by the year 2050. Using ordination methods we evaluated the climatic space occupied by B. tectorum in the Park and how this space may shift given future climate change. Modeling climate change at a small extent (1,076 km2) and at a fine spatial resolution (90 m) is a novel approach in species distribution modeling, and may provide inference for microclimates not captured in coarse-scale models. Maps from our models serve as high-resolution hypotheses that can be improved over time by land managers to set priorities for surveys and removal of invasive species such as B. tectorum. PMID:25695255

  10. Using High-Resolution Future Climate Scenarios to Forecast Bromus tectorum Invasion in Rocky Mountain National Park

    PubMed Central

    West, Amanda M.; Kumar, Sunil; Wakie, Tewodros; Brown, Cynthia S.; Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Laituri, Melinda; Bromberg, Jim

    2015-01-01

    National Parks are hallmarks of ecosystem preservation in the United States. The introduction of alien invasive plant species threatens protection of these areas. Bromus tectorum L. (commonly called downy brome or cheatgrass), which is found in Rocky Mountain National Park (hereafter, the Park), Colorado, USA, has been implicated in early spring competition with native grasses, decreased soil nitrogen, altered nutrient and hydrologic regimes, and increased fire intensity. We estimated the potential distribution of B. tectorum in the Park based on occurrence records (n = 211), current and future climate, and distance to roads and trails. An ensemble of six future climate scenarios indicated the habitable area of B. tectorum may increase from approximately 5.5% currently to 20.4% of the Park by the year 2050. Using ordination methods we evaluated the climatic space occupied by B. tectorum in the Park and how this space may shift given future climate change. Modeling climate change at a small extent (1,076 km2) and at a fine spatial resolution (90 m) is a novel approach in species distribution modeling, and may provide inference for microclimates not captured in coarse-scale models. Maps from our models serve as high-resolution hypotheses that can be improved over time by land managers to set priorities for surveys and removal of invasive species such as B. tectorum. PMID:25695255

  11. Controls on flood and sediment wave propagation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bakker, Maarten; Lane, Stuart N.; Costa, Anna; Molnar, Peter

    2015-04-01

    The understanding of flood wave propagation - celerity and transformation - through a fluvial system is of generic importance for flood forecasting/mitigation. In association with flood wave propagation, sediment wave propagation may induce local erosion and sedimentation, which will affect infrastructure and riparian natural habitats. Through analysing flood and sediment wave propagation, we gain insight in temporal changes in transport capacity (the flood wave) and sediment availability and transport (the sediment wave) along the river channel. Heidel (1956) was amongst the first to discuss the progressive lag of sediment concentration behind the corresponding flood wave based on field measurements. Since then this type of hysteresis has been characterized in a number of studies, but these were often based on limited amount of floods and measurement sites, giving insufficient insight into associated forcing mechanisms. Here, as part of a project concerned with the hydrological and geomorphic forcing of sediment transfer processes in alpine environments, we model the downstream propagation of short duration, high frequency releases of water and sediment (purges) from a flow intake in the Borgne d'Arolla River in south-west Switzerland. A total of >50 events were measured at 1 minute time intervals using pressure transducers and turbidity probes at a number of sites along the river. We show that flood and sediment wave propagation can be well represented through simple convection diffusion models. The models are calibrated/validated to describe the set of measured waves and used to explain the observed variation in wave celerity and diffusion. In addition we explore the effects of controlling factors including initial flow depth, flood height, flood duration, bed roughness, bed slope and initial sediment concentration, on the wave propagation processes. We show that the effects of forcing mechanisms on flood and sediment wave propagation will lead to different temporal and spatial erosion and deposition patterns. Knowledge of these forcing mechanisms and flood and sediment wave propagation in general can be applied in flow management and infrastructural/ecological development along the river. Heidel, S. G. (1956). "The progressive lag of sediment concentration with flood waves." Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union 37(1): 56-66.

  12. 77 FR 51745 - Proposed Flood Elevation Determinations

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-08-27

    ...following flooding sources: Big Elk Creek, Christina Creek...upstream of Old Telegraph Road. Big Elk Creek...National Geodetic Vertical Datum. # Depth in feet above ground. + North American Vertical Datum. [caret] Mean Sea...

  13. Determining Plausible Forecast Outcomes

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    2014-09-14

    The content of this lesson will assist the forecaster with the third step of the forecast process, namely, determining plausible forecast outcomes forward in time. The lesson will highlight the role of probabilistic forecast tools to assess the degree of uncertainty in a forecast, as well as suggest an approach for evaluating past and present model performance.

  14. Against all odds -- Probabilistic forecasts and decision making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liechti, Katharina; Zappa, Massimiliano

    2015-04-01

    In the city of Zurich (Switzerland) the setting is such that the damage potential due to flooding of the river Sihl is estimated to about 5 billion US dollars. The flood forecasting system that is used by the administration for decision making runs continuously since 2007. It has a time horizon of max. five days and operates at hourly time steps. The flood forecasting system includes three different model chains. Two of those are run by the deterministic NWP models COSMO-2 and COSMO-7 and one is driven by the probabilistic NWP COSMO-Leps. The model chains are consistent since February 2010, so five full years are available for the evaluation for the system. The system was evaluated continuously and is a very nice example to present the added value that lies in probabilistic forecasts. The forecasts are available on an online-platform to the decision makers. Several graphical representations of the forecasts and forecast-history are available to support decision making and to rate the current situation. The communication between forecasters and decision-makers is quite close. To put it short, an ideal situation. However, an event or better put a non-event in summer 2014 showed that the knowledge about the general superiority of probabilistic forecasts doesn't necessarily mean that the decisions taken in a specific situation will be based on that probabilistic forecast. Some years of experience allow gaining confidence in the system, both for the forecasters and for the decision-makers. Even if from the theoretical point of view the handling during crisis situation is well designed, a first event demonstrated that the dialog with the decision-makers still lacks of exercise during such situations. We argue, that a false alarm is a needed experience to consolidate real-time emergency procedures relying on ensemble predictions. A missed event would probably also fit, but, in our case, we are very happy not to report about this option.

  15. Flood Inundation Mapper

    USGS Multimedia Gallery

    A powerful new tool for flood response and mitigation are digital geospatial flood-inundation maps that show flood water extent and depth on the land surface. Because floods are the leading cause of natural-disaster losses, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is actively involved in the development of...

  16. Delivering integrated HAZUS-MH flood loss analyses and flood inundation maps over the Web

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hearn, Paul P.; Longenecker, Herbert E., III; Aguinaldo, John J.; Rahav, Ami N.

    2013-01-01

    Catastrophic flooding is responsible for more loss of life and damages to property than any other natural hazard. Recently developed flood inundation mapping technologies make it possible to view the extent and depth of flooding on the land surface over the Internet; however, by themselves these technologies are unable to provide estimates of losses to property and infrastructure. The Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA's) HAZUS-MH software is extensively used to conduct flood loss analyses in the United States, providing a nationwide database of population and infrastructure at risk. Unfortunately, HAZUS-MH requires a dedicated Geographic Information System (GIS) workstation and a trained operator, and analyses are not adapted for convenient delivery over the Web. This article describes a cooperative effort by the US Geological Survey (USGS) and FEMA to make HAZUS-MH output GIS and Web compatible and to integrate these data with digital flood inundation maps in USGS’s newly developed Inundation Mapping Web Portal. By running the computationally intensive HAZUS-MH flood analyses offline and converting the output to a Web-GIS compatible format, detailed estimates of flood losses can now be delivered to anyone with Internet access, thus dramatically increasing the availability of these forecasts to local emergency planners and first responders.

  17. Flood of Evidence

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    David Tenenbaum

    2000-03-16

    This article is a Why Files report on the increase in "natural" disasters from floods, probably the most destructive type of natural disaster. The article notes that in constant dollars, the cost in 1998 alone exceeded the economic toll of the entire decade of the 1980s. Evidence is cited that inundations reflect human action rather than simply rainfall amounts. The report covers: furious floods (including possible human-induced causes), too many floods (recent flood events), do fewer trees create more floods?, wetlands and floods, and flood prevention: the engineering structure or earthmover approach. Six scientists and researchers were interviewed for this report.

  18. Environment Agency England flood warning systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strong, Chris; Walters, Mark; Haynes, Elizabeth; Dobson, Peter

    2015-04-01

    Context In England around 5 million homes are at risk of flooding. We invest significantly in flood prevention and management schemes but we can never prevent all flooding. Early alerting systems are fundamental to helping us reduce the impacts of flooding. The Environment Agency has had the responsibility for flood warning since 1996. In 2006 we invested in a new dissemination system that would send direct messages to pre-identified recipients via a range of channels. Since then we have continuously improved the system and service we offer. In 2010 we introduced an 'opt-out' service where we pre-registered landline numbers in flood risk areas, significantly increasing the customer base. The service has performed exceptionally well under intense flood conditions. Over a period of 3 days in December 2013, when England was experiencing an east coast storm surge, the system sent nearly 350,000 telephone messages, 85,000 emails and 70,000 text messages, with a peak call rate of around 37,000 per hour and 100% availability. The Floodline Warnings Direct (FWD) System FWD provides warnings in advance of flooding so that people at risk and responders can take action to minimise the impact of the flood. Warnings are sent via telephone, fax, text message, pager or e-mail to over 1.1 million properties located within flood risk areas in England. Triggers for issuing alerts and warnings include attained and forecast river levels and rainfall in some rapidly responding locations. There are three levels of warning: Flood Alert, Flood Warning and Severe Flood Warning, and a stand down message. The warnings can be updated to include relevant information to help inform those at risk. Working with our current provider Fujitsu, the system is under a programme of continuous improvement including expanding the 'opt-out' service to mobile phone numbers registered to at risk addresses, allowing mobile registration to the system for people 'on the move' and providing access to registration via third parties. The 'Future Flood Warning System' Our research shows that people want more choice on how they access and receive warnings. Many want a service tailored to their own risk, rather than that of their community. They also want more information about the forecast and the situation to that they can make decisions personal to their circumstances. Our future flood warning system will build upon the success of our existing service and will aim to: • provide our customers with a more flexible and personalised self-service approach which caters for the diverse range of user needs • alert people wherever they are, not just in properties • be flexible enough to respond to user feedback to make improvements and utilise new technology as it becomes available • provide real-time visualisation of system performance, to assist our flood response • capture greater levels of information from the recipients of our warnings • be efficient for operators of the system and utilise automation where relevant • take a risk based approach to resilience to provide the highest level of reliability when needed at a reduced cost

  19. Estimation of the Relative Severity of Floods in Small Ungauged Catchments for Preliminary Observations on Flash Flood Preparedness: A Case Study in Korea

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Eung Seok; Choi, Hyun Il

    2012-01-01

    An increase in the occurrence of sudden local flooding of great volume and short duration has caused significant danger and loss of life and property in Korea as well as many other parts of the World. Since such floods usually accompanied by rapid runoff and debris flow rise quite quickly with little or no advance warning to prevent flood damage, this study presents a new flash flood indexing methodology to promptly provide preliminary observations regarding emergency preparedness and response to flash flood disasters in small ungauged catchments. Flood runoff hydrographs are generated from a rainfall-runoff model for the annual maximum rainfall series of long-term observed data in the two selected small ungauged catchments. The relative flood severity factors quantifying characteristics of flood runoff hydrographs are standardized by the highest recorded maximum value, and then averaged to obtain the flash flood index only for flash flood events in each study catchment. It is expected that the regression equations between the proposed flash flood index and rainfall characteristics can provide the basis database of the preliminary information for forecasting the local flood severity in order to facilitate flash flood preparedness in small ungauged catchments. PMID:22690208

  20. Estimation of the relative severity of floods in small ungauged catchments for preliminary observations on flash flood preparedness: a case study in Korea.

    PubMed

    Kim, Eung Seok; Choi, Hyun Il

    2012-04-01

    An increase in the occurrence of sudden local flooding of great volume and short duration has caused significant danger and loss of life and property in Korea as well as many other parts of the World. Since such floods usually accompanied by rapid runoff and debris flow rise quite quickly with little or no advance warning to prevent flood damage, this study presents a new flash flood indexing methodology to promptly provide preliminary observations regarding emergency preparedness and response to flash flood disasters in small ungauged catchments. Flood runoff hydrographs are generated from a rainfall-runoff model for the annual maximum rainfall series of long-term observed data in the two selected small ungauged catchments. The relative flood severity factors quantifying characteristics of flood runoff hydrographs are standardized by the highest recorded maximum value, and then averaged to obtain the flash flood index only for flash flood events in each study catchment. It is expected that the regression equations between the proposed flash flood index and rainfall characteristics can provide the basis database of the preliminary information for forecasting the local flood severity in order to facilitate flash flood preparedness in small ungauged catchments. PMID:22690208

  1. 12 CFR 208.25 - Loans in areas having special flood hazards.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... false Loans in areas having special flood hazards. 208.25 Section 208.25...208.25 Loans in areas having special flood hazards. (a) Purpose and scope ...implement the requirements of the National Flood Insurance Act of 1968 and the Flood...

  2. 12 CFR 208.25 - Loans in areas having special flood hazards.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... false Loans in areas having special flood hazards. 208.25 Section 208.25...208.25 Loans in areas having special flood hazards. (a) Purpose and scope ...implement the requirements of the National Flood Insurance Act of 1968 and the Flood...

  3. Weather Forecasting

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    In this online, interactive module, students will learn how to interpret weather patterns from satellite images, predict storm paths and forecast the weather for their area. The module is part of an online course for grades 7-12 in satellite meteorology, which includes 10 interactive modules. The site also includes lesson plans developed by teachers and links to related resources. Each module is designed to serve as a stand-alone lesson, however, a sequential approach is recommended. Designed to challenge students through the end of 12th grade, middle school teachers and students may choose to skim or skip a few sections.

  4. Seasonal streamflow forecasting with the global hydrological forecasting system FEWS-World

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Candogan Yossef, N.; Van Beek, L. P.; Winsemius, H.; Bierkens, M. F.

    2011-12-01

    The year-to-year variability of river discharge brings about risks and opportunities in water resources management. Reliable hydrological forecasts and effective communication allow several sectors to make more informed management decisions. In many developing regions of the world, there are no efficient hydrological forecasting systems. For these regions, a global forecasting system which indicates increased probabilities of streamflow excesses or shortages over long lead-times can be of great value. FEWS-World is developed for this purpose. The system incorporates the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB and delivers streamflow forecasts on a global scale. This study investigates the skill and value of FEWS-World. Skill is defined as the ability of the system to forecast discharge extremes; and value is its usefulness for possible users and ultimately for affected populations. Skill is assessed in historical simulation mode as well as retroactive forecasting mode. The eventual goal is to transfer FEWS-World to operational forecasting mode, where the system will use operational seasonal forecasts from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The results will be disseminated on the internet to provide valuable information for users in data and model-poor regions of the world. The preliminary skill assessment of PCR-GLOBWB in reproducing flow extremes is carried out for a selection of 20 large rivers of the world. The model is run for a historical period, with a meteorological forcing data set based on observations from the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, and the ERA-40 reanalysis of ECMWF. Model skill in reproducing monthly anomalies as well as floods and droughts is assessed by applying verification measures developed for deterministic meteorological forecasts. The results of this preliminary analysis shows that even where the simulated hydrographs are biased, higher skills can be attained in reproducing monthly anomalies and extreme events. The prospects for seasonal/monthly forecasting of hydrological extremes are therefore positive. Next, the true skill of the global hydrological forecasting system FEWS-World is assessed in retroactive forecasting mode, using seasonal meteorological forecasts subject to uncertainty from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The system is forced with ensemble seasonal meteorological forecasts from the seasonal forecast archives of ECMWF. We assess the skill of FEWS-World in forecasting monthly anomalies and extreme events on a range of different lead-times by applying verification measures for ensemble forecasts. Although forecasting skill decreases with increasing lead time, the value of forecasts does not necessarily do so. The real value of a forecast is to be determined on the basis of the benefits and costs of possible actions that can be taken in response to a forecast, provided that information on forecast reliability is properly communicated. A preliminary investigation of the forecast requirements and response options of several sectors over lead times from short-range through medium-range to monthly and seasonal show that most sectors benefit from seasonal forecasts to prepare for appropriate response.

  5. ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK MODELS INVESTIGATION FOR EUPHRATES RIVER FORECASTING &BACK CASTING

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Cheleng A. Arslan

    2013-01-01

    The development of stream flow forecasting model is one of the most important aspects in water resources planning and management , since it can help in providing early warning of river flooding as well as in short term operation of water supply system. In this research the best ANN artificial neural networks model for simulation and forecasting of Euphrates river

  6. HydroMet: Real-time Forecasting System for Hydrologic Hazards

    Microsoft Academic Search

    L. E. Band; D. Shin; T. Hwang; J. Goodall; M. Reed; M. Rynge; L. Stillwell; K. Galluppi

    2007-01-01

    Recent devastating floods and severe droughts in North Carolina called attention to the need of a reliable nowcasting and forecasting system for these hydrologic hazards. In response to the demand, HydroMet project was launched by RENCI (Renaissance Computing Institute). On a supercomputer in the institute, we integrated (1) WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) for the mesoscale numerical weather prediction, (2)

  7. A hydrometeorological forecasting approach for basins with complex flow regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zarkadoulas, Akis; Mantesi, Konstantina; Efstratiadis, Andreas; Koussis, Antonis; Mazi, Aikaterini; Katsanos, Demetris; Koukouvinos, Antonis; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

    2015-04-01

    The combined use of weather forecasting models and hydrological models in flood risk estimations is an established technique, with several successful applications worldwide. However, most known hydrometeorological forecasting systems have been established in large rivers with perpetual flow. Experience from small- and medium-scale basins, which are often affected by flash floods, is very limited. In this work we investigate the perspectives of hydrometeorological forecasting, by emphasizing two issues: (a) which modelling approach can credibly represent the complex dynamics of basins with highly variable runoff (intermittent or ephemeral); and (b) which transformation of point-precipitation forecasts provides the most reliable estimations of spatially aggregated data, to be used as inputs to semi-distributed hydrological models. Using as case studies the Sarantapotamos river basin, in Eastern Greece (145 km2), and the Nedontas river basin, in SW Peloponnese (120 km2), we demonstrate the advantages of continuous simulation through the HYDROGEIOS model. This employs conjunctive modelling of surface and groundwater flows and their interactions (percolation, infiltration, underground losses), which are key processes in river basins characterized by significantly variability of runoff. The model was calibrated against hourly flow data at two and three hydrometric stations, respectively, for a 3-year period (2011-2014). Next we attempted to reproduce the most intense flood events of that period, by substituting observed rainfall by forecast scenarios. In this respect, we used consecutive point forecasts of a 6-hour lead time, provided by the numerical weather prediction model WRF (Advanced Research version), dynamically downscaled from the ~1° forecast of GSF-NCEP/NOAA successively first to ~18 km, then to ~6 km and ultimately at the horizontal grid resolution of 2x2 km2. We examined alternative spatial integration approaches, using as reference the rainfall stations over the two basins. By combining consecutive rainfall forecasts at the sub-basin scale (a kind of ensemble prediction), we run the model in forecast mode to generate trajectories of flow predictions and associated uncertainty bounds.

  8. > BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS DISTRICT FORECASTS

    E-print Network

    Greenslade, Diana

    > BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS DISTRICT FORECASTS IMPROVEMENTS FOR QUEENSLAND across Australia From October 2013, new and improved district forecasts will be introduced in Queensland Protection times FURTHER INFORMATION : www.bom.gov.au/NexGenFWS © Commonwealth of Australia, 2013 PTO> Wind

  9. Forecasting phenology under global warming

    E-print Network

    Silander Jr., John A.

    Forecasting phenology under global warming Ine´s Iba´n~ez1,*, Richard B. Primack2, Abraham J Department of Biology, Boston University, Boston, MA 02215, USA 3 USA National Phenology Network, Tucson, AZ and autumn phenologies have been shifting, with corresponding changes in the length of the growing season

  10. On the integration of HydroProg and FloodMap: towards real-time inundation predictions in the upper Nysa Klodzka basin (SW Poland)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Dapeng; Mizinski, Bartlomiej; Latocha, Agnieszka; Parzoch, Krzysztof; Niedzielski, Tomasz

    2015-04-01

    The paper summarizes attempts to link the HydroProg system for issuing the real-time warnings against hydrologic hazards (research project no. 2011/01/D/ST10/04171 of the National Science Centre of Poland) with the hydrodynamic FloodMap model. HydroProg itself integrates hydrometeorological gauging networks with dissimilar hydrologic models in order to deliver multiple river stage prognoses and their multimodel ensemble prediction. FloodMap uses HydroProg-delivered forecasts and, along with data on topography and bed profiles, produces short-term (3-hour) prognoses of inundation. The research is carried out in five test sites located in the upper Nysa Klodzka basin (SW Poland), where the HydroProg-Klodzko prototype is experimentally implemented, and is steadily providing the users with experimental prognoses of river stages (www.klodzko.hydroprog.uni.wroc.pl). The successful implementation of HydroProg in Klodzko County is due to the partnership with its authorities who developed and maintain the Local System for Flood Monitoring (Lokalny System Oslony Przeciwpowodziowej - LSOP). For the purpose of HydroProg-FloodMap integration we selected: (1) three hydrograph prediction approaches offered by HydroProg-Klodzko, (2) five specific peak flow events, and (3) five test sites along four mountainous rivers of the study area, focusing on 3-hour hydrograph predictions. The calibration of the FloodMap model is based on an overbank flow reconstruction, produced as a result of mapping geomorphological consequences of the flood that occurred in the Zelazno site on 26-28 June 2009. The discussion as to whether the calibrated model can be extrapolated and used in the remaining test sites is also provided. By utilizing FloodMap with observed water depth data we produce simulated inundation, which we verify against the orthophoto images acquired by the Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV). Subsequently, we again run the FloodMap model with the HydroProg-delivered prognoses of hydrographs. This allows us to compare the simulated inundation (which we provisionally assume to be close-to-observed water extent) with the predicted inundation. This comparison enables us to evaluate how skillful the HydroProg-FloodMap approach is in the process of forecasting future overbank flow events. The results of the investigations are implemented in practice, and the 3-hour (15-minute updated) predictions of inundation for the five test sites are included in the real-time service.

  11. AIR QUALITY FORECAST VERIFICATION USING SATELLITE DATA

    EPA Science Inventory

    NOAA 's operational geostationary satellite retrievals of aerosol optical depths (AODs) were used to verify National Weather Service (NWS) experimental (research mode) particulate matter (PM2.5) forecast guidance issued during the summer 2004 International Consortium for Atmosp...

  12. Severe Weather 101: Flood Basics

    MedlinePLUS

    Severe Weather 101 Flood Basics What is flooding? Flooding is an overflowing of water onto land that is normally dry. Floods can happen during heavy rains, when ocean waves come on shore, when snow melts too fast, ...

  13. Modeling for Tsunami Forecast

    E-print Network

    Modeling for Tsunami Forecast Vasily Titov NOAA Center for Tsunami Research Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory Seattle, WA #12;Outline Tsunami Modeling Development Toward Real- time Tsunami Forecast Challenges Modeling development in 1990 -2000 Short-term Inundation Forecast for Tsunamis Forecast system

  14. Issues in Sports Forecasting

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Herman O. Stekler; David Sendor; Richard Verlander

    2009-01-01

    A great amount of effort is spent in forecasting the outcome of sporting events, but few papers have focused exclusively on the characteristics of sports forecasts. Rather, many papers have been written about the efficiency of sports betting markets. As it turns out, it is possible to derive considerable information about the forecasts and the forecasting process from the studies

  15. Significant Floods in the United States During the 20th Century - USGS Measures a Century of Floods

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    Charles Perry

    During the 20th century, floods were the number-one natural disaster in the United States in terms of the number of lives lost and property damage. For more than 110 years the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has measured floods for the Nation's benefit while supplying additional streamflow data with its extensive stream-gaging network. Thirty-two of the most significant floods (in terms of number of lives lost and (or) property damage) in the United States during the 20th century are listed according to the various types of floods. Internet sites for acquiring near-real-time streamflow data and other pertinent flood information are provided.

  16. Ensemble-based analysis of Front Range severe convection on 6-7 June 2012: Forecast uncertainty and communication of weather information to Front Range decision-makers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vincente, Vanessa

    The variation of topography in Colorado not only adds to the beauty of its landscape, but also tests our ability to predict warm season severe convection. Deficient radar coverage and limited observations make quantitative precipitation forecasting quite a challenge. Past studies have suggested that greater forecast skill of mesoscale convection initiation and precipitation characteristics are achievable considering an ensemble with explicitly predicted convection compared to one that has parameterized convection. The range of uncertainty and probabilities in these forecasts can help forecasters in their precipitation predictions and communication of weather information to emergency managers (EMs). EMs serve an integral role in informing and protecting communities in anticipation of hazardous weather. An example of such an event occurred on the evening of 6 June 2012, where areas to the lee of the Rocky Mountain Front Range were impacted by flash-flood-producing severe convection that included heavy rain and copious amounts of hail. Despite the discrepancy in the timing, location and evolution of convection, the convection-allowing ensemble forecasts generally outperformed those of the convection-parameterized ensemble in representing the mesoscale processes responsible for the 6-7 June severe convective event. Key features sufficiently reproduced by several of the convection-allowing ensemble members resembled the observations: 1) general location of a convergence boundary east of Denver, 2) convective initiation along the boundary, 3) general location of a weak cold front near the Wyoming/Nebraska border, and 4) cold pools and moist upslope characteristics that contributed to the backbuilding of convection. Members from the convection-parameterized ensemble that failed to reproduce these results displaced the convergence boundary, produced a cold front that moved southeast too quickly, and used the cold front for convective initiation. The convection-allowing ensemble also showed greater skill in forecasting heavy precipitation amounts in the vicinity of where they were observed during the most active convective period, particularly near urbanized areas. A total of 9 Front Range EMs were interviewed to research how they understood hazardous weather information, and how their perception of forecast uncertainty would influence their decision making following a heavy rain event. Many of the EMs use situational awareness and past experiences with major weather events to guide their emergency planning. They also highly valued their relationship with the National Weather Service to improve their understanding of weather forecasts and ask questions about the uncertainties. Most of the EMs perceived forecast uncertainty in terms of probability and with the understanding that forecasting the weather is an imprecise science. The greater the likelihood of occurrence (implied by a higher probability of precipitation) showed greater confidence in the forecast that an event was likely to happen. Five probabilistic forecast products were generated from the convection-allowing ensemble output to generate a hypothetical warm season heavy rain event scenario. Responses varied between the EMs in which products they found most practical or least useful. Most EMs believed that there was a high probability for flooding, as illustrated by the degree of forecasted precipitation intensity. Most confirmed perceiving uncertainty in the different forecast representations, sharing the idea that there is an inherent uncertainty that follows modeled forecasts. The long-term goal of this research is to develop and add reliable probabilistic forecast products to the "toolbox" of decision-makers to help them better assess hazardous weather information and improve warning notifications and response.

  17. Toward Improved Land Surface Initialization in Support of Regional WRF Forecasts at the Kenya Meteorological Department

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Case. Jonathan; Mungai, John; Sakwa, Vincent; Kabuchanga, Eric; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Limaye, Ashutosh S.

    2014-01-01

    Flooding and drought are two key forecasting challenges for the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD). Atmospheric processes leading to excessive precipitation and/or prolonged drought can be quite sensitive to the state of the land surface, which interacts with the boundary layer of the atmosphere providing a source of heat and moisture. The development and evolution of precipitation systems are affected by heat and moisture fluxes from the land surface within weakly-sheared environments, such as in the tropics and sub-tropics. These heat and moisture fluxes during the day can be strongly influenced by land cover, vegetation, and soil moisture content. Therefore, it is important to represent the land surface state as accurately as possible in numerical weather prediction models. Enhanced regional modeling capabilities have the potential to improve forecast guidance in support of daily operations and high-end events over east Africa. KMD currently runs a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in real time to support its daily forecasting operations, invoking the Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) dynamical core. They make use of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration / National Weather Service Science and Training Resource Center's Environmental Modeling System (EMS) to manage and produce the WRF-NMM model runs on a 7-km regional grid over eastern Africa. Two organizations at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, AL, SERVIR and the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, have established a working partnership with KMD for enhancing its regional modeling capabilities. To accomplish this goal, SPoRT and SERVIR will provide experimental land surface initialization datasets and model verification capabilities to KMD. To produce a land-surface initialization more consistent with the resolution of the KMD-WRF runs, the NASA Land Information System (LIS) will be run at a comparable resolution to provide real-time, daily soil initialization data in place of interpolated Global Forecast System soil moisture and temperature data. Additionally, real-time green vegetation fraction data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite will be incorporated into the KMD-WRF runs, once it becomes publicly available from the National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service. Finally, model verification capabilities will be transitioned to KMD using the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) package, in order to quantify possible improvements in simulated temperature, moisture and precipitation resulting from the experimental land surface initialization. The transition of these MET tools will enable KMD to monitor model forecast accuracy in near real time. This presentation will highlight preliminary verification results of WRF runs over east Africa using the LIS land surface initialization.

  18. Global Storm Surge Forecasting and Information System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buckman, Lorraine; Verlaan, Martin; Weerts, Albrecht

    2015-04-01

    The Global Storm Surge Forecasting and Information System is a first-of-its-kind operational forecasting system for storm surge prediction on a global scale, taking into account tidal and extra-tropical storm events in real time. The system, built and hosted by Deltares, provides predictions of water level and surge height up to 10 days in advance from numerical simulations and measurement data integrated within an operational IT environment. The Delft-FEWS software provides the operational environment in which wind forecasts and measurement data are collected and processed, and serves as a platform from which to run the numerical model. The global Delft3D model is built on a spherical, flexible mesh with a resolution around 5 km in near-shore coastal waters and an offshore resolution of 50 km to provide detailed information at the coast while limiting the computational time required. By using a spherical grid, the model requires no external boundary conditions. Numerical global wind forecasts are used as forcing for the model, with plans to incorporate regional meteorological forecasts to better capture smaller, tropical storms using the Wind Enhanced Scheme for generation of tropical winds (WES). The system will be automated to collect regional wind forecasts and storm warning bulletins which are incorporated directly into the model calculations. The forecasting system provides real-time water level and surge information in areas that currently lack local storm surge prediction capability. This information is critical for coastal communities in planning their flood strategy and during disaster response. The system is also designed to supply boundary conditions for coupling finer-scale regional models. The Global Storm Surge Forecasting and Information System is run within the Deltares iD-Lab initiative aiming at collaboration with universities, consultants and interested organizations. The results of the system will be made available via standards such as netCDF-CF, OpenDAP, WaterML2 and/or JSON REST as an interoperability experiment.

  19. River Flood Animation

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    2002-01-01

    Use this animation to learn about floods. You will learn about drainage basins, discharge, hydrographs, floodplain deposition, and infiltration. You will also learn about the frequency of floods and what we are doing to control them.

  20. FLOOD EVENT MAPPING IMAGES

    EPA Science Inventory

    OSEI flood products (FLD) include multichannel color composite imagery and single-channel grayscale imagery of enlarged river areas or increased sediment flow. Typically, these events are displayed by comparison to imagery taken when flooding was not occurring....