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Sample records for negative predictive values

  1. Negative predictive value of procalcitonin in medullary thyroid carcinoma.

    PubMed

    Lim, Soo Kyung; Guéchot, Jérôme; Vaubourdolle, Michel

    2016-01-01

    Calcitonin (CT), the major biochemical marker in medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) is prone to in vitro instability and suffers from scarcity of clinical laboratory platforms. Procalcitonin (PCT), the precursor of CT, free of these shortcomings, has been reported as a potential MTC marker. The aim of this study was to assess the negative predictive value (NPV) of PCT as a first-line marker in MTC. 476 serum samples referred to our laboratory for CT measurements were analyzed for PCT. NPVs of PCT were assessed at 3 cut-offs (0.05, 0.10 and 0.15 ng/mL) and the diagnosis of MTC was based on CT levels. PCT and CT levels were correlated (r=0.7554 for CT levels above 10 pg/mL, n=66). Accepting the CT cut-off based on the upper reference limit the NPV of PCT were 98.1% (0.05 ng/mL), 96.3% (0.10 ng/mL) and 95.4% (0.15 ng/mL) respectively. For a CT cut-off of 100 pg/mL the NPVs of PCT were 100% for all PCT thresholds. Serum PCT has a strong NPV and could be a good candidate for a first-line screening test to exclude MTC in patients with suspicious thyroid nodules or suggestive symptoms. Larger prospective studies are necessary to confirm our results. PMID:26806393

  2. Negative predictive value of cardiac troponin for predicting adverse cardiac events following blunt chest trauma.

    PubMed

    Guild, Cameron S; deShazo, Matthew; Geraci, Stephen A

    2014-01-01

    Cardiac-specific troponins (Tns) are sensitive and specific markers of myocardial injury that have been shown to be predictive of outcomes in many cardiac and noncardiac conditions. We sought to determine whether normal cardiac Tn concentrations obtained during the first 24 hours following blunt chest trauma would predict good cardiac outcomes. A PubMed/MEDLINE search was performed to identify prospective studies in patients with blunt chest trauma in which serial cardiac TnT or TnI values were measured within 24 hours of admission and clinical outcomes assessed. Ten studies qualified for review. Studies that used the lower reference limit of Tn as the cutoff for cardiac injury showed 100% negative predictive value (NPV) for developing cardiac complications, whereas studies using higher Tn cutoffs showed wider variation in NPV (50%-98%). Cardiac Tn measured within 24 hours using the lower reference limit (LRL) as the cutoff appears to have excellent NPV for clinically significant adverse cardiac events. This could allow for early discharge after a 24-hour observation period in otherwise uncomplicated blunt chest trauma patients and avoid the need for more expensive cardiac imaging and additional resource utilization. PMID:24389788

  3. Value of integron detection for predicting antibiotic resistance in patients with Gram-negative septicaemia.

    PubMed

    Barraud, Olivier; François, Bruno; Chainier, Delphine; Vignaud, Julie; Ploy, Marie-Cécile

    2014-10-01

    Multidrug-resistant Enterobacteriaceae are a major public health threat and complicate the choice of drugs for empirical antibiotic therapy, especially in sepsis patients who require rapid, appropriate treatment. The objective of this study was to examine the value of integrons as a global predictive marker of acquired antibiotic resistance in septicaemia-causing Enterobacteriaceae by direct detection in positive blood cultures. The integron genetic marker can be detected in a single test, whereas multiple PCRs are needed to detect the hundreds of known antibiotic resistance genes. A total of 166 positive blood cultures were included in the study, and integrons were detected with a quantitative PCR method both in positive blood cultures and isolated Enterobacteriaceae. The results of integron detection directly on positive blood cultures were consistent in 98.8% of cases with integron detection in isolated Enterobacteriaceae. Negative predictive values (NPVs) were >90% for resistance to third-generation cephalosporins, aminoglycosides, ciprofloxacin and trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole. In the current context of antibiotic stewardship, these good NPVs indicate that this method might be useful for preserving broad-spectrum antibiotics. The results of this proof-of-concept study must be confirmed in order to demonstrate the clinical relevance of integron detection, not only in positive blood cultures but also, to gain time, in raw biological samples. PMID:25130099

  4. Negativity bias and basic values.

    PubMed

    Schwartz, Shalom H

    2014-06-01

    Basic values explain more variance in political attitudes and preferences than other personality and sociodemographic variables. The values most relevant to the political domain are those likely to reflect the degree of negativity bias. Value conflicts that represent negativity bias clarify differences between what worries conservatives and liberals and suggest that relations between ideology and negativity bias are linear. PMID:24970450

  5. Positive and Negative Predictive Value of PET-CT in Skull Base Lesions: Case Series and Systematic Literature Review

    PubMed Central

    Hines, John Peyton; Howard, Brittany E.; Hoxworth, Joseph M.; Lal, Devyani

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To study positive (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of positron emission tomography with computed tomography (PET-CT) scans in determining malignancy in skull base lesions and perform a systematic literature review for optimal PET-CT interpretation. Design Retrospective case series and systematic literature review of the current English literature. Setting Tertiary referral academic medical center. Participants All patients with skull base lesions that underwent PET-CT and tissue biopsy from 2010 to 2013. Main Outcome Measures PPV and NPV of radiologist's report and standardized uptake value (SUV) cutoff of 2.5 and 3, biopsy with pathologic interpretation, clinical follow-up. Results A total of 31 PET-CT scans of 16 patients were studied; 10 PET-CT were performed upfront for diagnostic purposes and 21 were post-treatment surveillance scans. The PPV of radiologist's interpretation, SUV cutoff of 2.5, and SUV cutoff of 3.0 was 80%, 60%, and 68.4%, with a NPV of 100%, 83.3%, and 75%, respectively. Literature search yielded 500 abstracts; 7 studies met inclusion criteria for detailed review. No consensus or guidelines for optimal SUV cutoff value was found. Conclusions PET-CT based on SUV cutoff criteria alone has high NPV but low PPV in determining malignancy in skull base lesions. Interpretation by a radiologist experienced in nuclear medicine and neuroradiology, synthesizing clinical, SUV, and radiologic data are of superior value. PMID:26937333

  6. Negative predictive value of preoperative computed tomography in determining pathologic local invasion, nodal disease, and abdominal metastases in gastric cancer

    PubMed Central

    Kagedan, D.J.; Frankul, F.; El-Sedfy, A.; McGregor, C.; Elmi, M.; Zagorski, B.; Dixon, M.E.; Mahar, A.L.; Vasilevska-Ristovska, J.; Helyer, L.; Rowsell, C.; Swallow, C.J.; Law, C.H.; Coburn, N.G.

    2016-01-01

    Background Before undergoing curative-intent resection of gastric adenocarcinoma (ga), most patients undergo abdominal computed tomography (ct) imaging to determine contraindications to resection (local invasion, distant metastases). However, the ability to detect contraindications is variable, and the literature is limited to single-institution studies. We sought to assess, on a population level, the clinical relevance of preoperative ct in evaluating the resectability of ga tumours in patients undergoing surgery. Methods In a provincial cancer registry, 2414 patients with ga diagnosed during 2005–2008 at 116 institutions were identified, and a primary chart review of radiology, operative, and pathology reports was performed for all patients. Preoperative abdominal ct reports were compared with intraoperative findings and final pathology reports (reference standard) to determine the negative predictive value (npv) of ct in assessing local invasion, nodal involvement, and intra-abdominal metastases. Results Among patients undergoing gastrectomy, the npv of ct imaging in detecting local invasion was 86.9% (n = 536). For nodal metastasis, the npv of ct was 43.3% (n = 450). Among patients undergoing surgical exploration, the npv of ct for intra-abdominal metastases was 52.3% (n = 407). Conclusions Preoperative abdominal ct imaging reported as negative is most accurate in determining local invasion and least accurate in nodal assessment. The poor npv of ct should be taken into account when selecting patients for staging laparoscopy. PMID:27536178

  7. The negative predictive value of ultrasound-guided 14-gauge core needle biopsy of breast masses: a validation study of 339 cases

    PubMed Central

    Lewis, Darrell R.; Nasute, Paola; Hayes, Malcolm; Warren, Linda J.; Gordon, Paula B.

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Purpose: To determine the negative predictive value of sonographically guided 14-gauge core needle biopsy of breast masses, with detailed analysis of any false-negative cases. Materials and methods: We reviewed 669 cases of sonographically guided 14-gauge core needle biopsies that had benign pathologic findings. Given a benign pathology on core biopsy, true-negatives had either benign pathology on surgical excision or at least 2 years of stable imaging and/or clinical follow-up; false-negatives had malignant histology on surgical excision. Results: Follow-up was available for 339 breast lesions; 117 were confirmed to be benign via surgical excision, and 220 were stable after 2 years or more of imaging or clinical follow-up (mean follow-up time 33.1 months, range 24–64 months). The negative predictive value was determined to be 99.4%. There were 2 false-negative cases, giving a false-negative rate of 0.1%. There was no delay in diagnosis in either case because the radiologist noted discordance between imaging and core biopsy pathology, and recommended surgical excision despite the benign core biopsy pathology. Conclusions: Sonographically guided 14-gauge core needle biopsy provides a high negative predictive value in assessing breast lesions. Radiologic/pathologic correlation should be performed to avoid delay in the diagnosis of carcinoma. PMID:23113970

  8. Analysis of Sensitivity, Specificity, and Positive and Negative Predictive Values of Smear and Colposcopy in Diagnosis of Premalignant and Malignant Cervical Lesions.

    PubMed

    Barut, Mert Ulaş; Kale, Ahmet; Kuyumcuoğlu, Umur; Bozkurt, Murat; Ağaçayak, Elif; Özekinci, Server; Gül, Talip

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND This study aimed to examine the positive and negative predictive value in the diagnosis of premalignant and malignant lesions of cervical colposcopy, the sensitivity and specificity of smear, and to evaluate the correlation with histopathology of abnormal cytology and colposcopy. MATERIAL AND METHODS The criteria for inclusion of patients with unhealthy cervix in the study were: Erosion, Chronic cervicitis, and Healed lacerations, Hypertrophied cervix, bleeding on touch, suspicious growth/ulcer/polyp on the cervix, and abnormal discharges from the cervix. Women with frank carcinoma cervix, pregnant females, patients with bleeding per vaginum at the time of examination, and those who had used vaginal medications, vaginal contraceptives or douches in the last 48 h of examination were excluded from the study. Demographic analysis was performed for 450 patients who were admitted to the clinic. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive values of patients to identify cervical pathologies of smear and colposcopy were histopathologically calculated. The statistical software package SPSS 15.0 (SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, USA) and Spearman's and Chi-Square tests were used for statistical analysis. RESULTS Sensitivity, specificity, PPD and NDP of smear were 0.57%, 0.76%, 0.26%, 0.92% respectively. Sensitivity, specificity, PPD and NDP of colposcopy were 0.92%, 0.67%, 0.52%, 0.96% respectively. A statistically significant correlation was found between abnormal cytology and histopathology, and abnormal colposcopy finding and histopathology. CONCLUSIONS Women with clinical diagnosis of unhealthy cervix should be evaluated by cytology to detect any premalignant or malignant lesions. It was concluded that Pap smear, colposcopy and histopathology should be collectively evaluated to evaluate cervical findings in low socio-economic regions. PMID:26655816

  9. Transcriptome Analysis of Triple-Negative Breast Cancer Reveals an Integrated mRNA-lncRNA Signature with Predictive and Prognostic Value.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Yi-Zhou; Liu, Yi-Rong; Xu, Xiao-En; Jin, Xi; Hu, Xin; Yu, Ke-Da; Shao, Zhi-Ming

    2016-04-15

    While recognized as a generally aggressive disease, triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is highly diverse in different patients with variable outcomes. In this prospective observational study, we aimed to develop an RNA signature of TNBC patients to improve risk stratification and optimize the choice of adjuvant therapy. Transcriptome microarrays for 33 paired TNBC and adjacent normal breast tissue revealed tumor-specific mRNAs and long noncoding RNAs (lncRNA) that were associated with recurrence-free survival. Using the Cox regression model, we developed an integrated mRNA-lncRNA signature based on the mRNA species for FCGR1A, RSAD2, CHRDL1, and the lncRNA species for HIF1A-AS2 and AK124454 The prognostic and predictive accuracy of this signature was evaluated in a training set of 137 TNBC patients and then validated in a second independent set of 138 TNBC patients. In addition, we enrolled 82 TNBC patients who underwent taxane-based neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NCT) to further verify the predictive value of the signature. In both the training and validation sets, the integrated signature had better prognostic value than clinicopathologic parameters. We also confirmed the interaction between the administration of taxane-based NCT and different risk groups. In the NCT cohort, patients in the low-risk group were more likely to achieve pathologic complete remission after taxane-based NCT (P = 0.014). Functionally, we showed that HIF1A-AS2 and AK124454 promoted cell proliferation and invasion in TNBC cells and contributed there to paclitaxel resistance. Overall, our results established an integrated mRNA-lncRNA signature as a reliable tool to predict tumor recurrence and the benefit of taxane chemotherapy in TNBC, warranting further investigation in larger populations to help frame individualized treatments for TNBC patients. Cancer Res; 76(8); 2105-14. ©2016 AACR. PMID:26921339

  10. The 'negative cost' of value engineering.

    PubMed

    Wilkinson, Martin

    2012-06-01

    Martin Wilkinson, national sales manager at system protection specialist, Spirotech UK, highlights the 'potential negative consequences' of value engineering in heating system specification in the healthcare sector, and argues that system protection products such as de-aerators and dirt separators have considerable value in preventative maintenance, and in helping to extend the useful life of both the system as a whole, and its vital parts. PMID:22764628

  11. Visual mismatch negativity: a predictive coding view.

    PubMed

    Stefanics, Gábor; Kremláček, Jan; Czigler, István

    2014-01-01

    An increasing number of studies investigate the visual mismatch negativity (vMMN) or use the vMMN as a tool to probe various aspects of human cognition. This paper reviews the theoretical underpinnings of vMMN in the light of methodological considerations and provides recommendations for measuring and interpreting the vMMN. The following key issues are discussed from the experimentalist's point of view in a predictive coding framework: (1) experimental protocols and procedures to control "refractoriness" effects; (2) methods to control attention; (3) vMMN and veridical perception. PMID:25278859

  12. Visual mismatch negativity: a predictive coding view

    PubMed Central

    Stefanics, Gábor; Kremláček, Jan; Czigler, István

    2014-01-01

    An increasing number of studies investigate the visual mismatch negativity (vMMN) or use the vMMN as a tool to probe various aspects of human cognition. This paper reviews the theoretical underpinnings of vMMN in the light of methodological considerations and provides recommendations for measuring and interpreting the vMMN. The following key issues are discussed from the experimentalist's point of view in a predictive coding framework: (1) experimental protocols and procedures to control “refractoriness” effects; (2) methods to control attention; (3) vMMN and veridical perception. PMID:25278859

  13. The Predictive Value of IQ.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sternberg, Robert J.; Grigorenko, Elena L.; Bundy, Donald A.

    2001-01-01

    Reviews findings on the predictive validity of psychometric tests of intelligence. Concludes that conventional tests of intelligence can be useful but only if they are interpreted very carefully, taking into account the factors that can affect them, and in conjunction with other measures. (Author)

  14. The habenula encodes negative motivational value associated with primary punishment in humans

    PubMed Central

    Lawson, Rebecca P.; Seymour, Ben; Loh, Eleanor; Lutti, Antoine; Dolan, Raymond J.; Dayan, Peter; Weiskopf, Nikolaus; Roiser, Jonathan P.

    2014-01-01

    Learning what to approach, and what to avoid, involves assigning value to environmental cues that predict positive and negative events. Studies in animals indicate that the lateral habenula encodes the previously learned negative motivational value of stimuli. However, involvement of the habenula in dynamic trial-by-trial aversive learning has not been assessed, and the functional role of this structure in humans remains poorly characterized, in part, due to its small size. Using high-resolution functional neuroimaging and computational modeling of reinforcement learning, we demonstrate positive habenula responses to the dynamically changing values of cues signaling painful electric shocks, which predict behavioral suppression of responses to those cues across individuals. By contrast, negative habenula responses to monetary reward cue values predict behavioral invigoration. Our findings show that the habenula plays a key role in an online aversive learning system and in generating associated motivated behavior in humans. PMID:25071182

  15. It's difficult, but important, to make negative predictions.

    PubMed

    Williams, Richard V; Amberg, Alexander; Brigo, Alessandro; Coquin, Laurence; Giddings, Amanda; Glowienke, Susanne; Greene, Nigel; Jolly, Robert; Kemper, Ray; O'Leary-Steele, Catherine; Parenty, Alexis; Spirkl, Hans-Peter; Stalford, Susanne A; Weiner, Sandy K; Wichard, Joerg

    2016-04-01

    At the confluence of predictive and regulatory toxicologies, negative predictions may be the thin green line that prevents populations from being exposed to harm. Here, two novel approaches to making confident and robust negative in silico predictions for mutagenicity (as defined by the Ames test) have been evaluated. Analyses of 12 data sets containing >13,000 compounds, showed that negative predictivity is high (∼90%) for the best approach and features that either reduce the accuracy or certainty of negative predictions are identified as misclassified or unclassified respectively. However, negative predictivity remains high (and in excess of the prevalence of non-mutagens) even in the presence of these features, indicating that they are not flags for mutagenicity. PMID:26785392

  16. Prognostic value of Ki67 and p53 in patients with estrogen receptor-positive and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative breast cancer: Validation of the cut-off value of the Ki67 labeling index as a predictive factor

    PubMed Central

    OHARA, MASAHIRO; MATSUURA, KAZUO; AKIMOTO, ETSUSHI; NOMA, MIDORI; DOI, MIHOKO; NISHIZAKA, TAKASHI; KAGAWA, NAOKI; ITAMOTO, TOSHIYUKI

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the significance of the Ki67 labeling index and p53 status as prognostic and predictive indicators of operable estrogen receptor (ER)-positive and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative breast cancer. Among 697 consecutive patients with primary breast cancer who underwent curative surgery between 2002 and 2013, 308 patients with ER-positive and HER2-negative breast cancer were assessed. The results of the multivariate Cox analysis demonstrated that a high Ki67 labeling index was significantly associated with a short recurrence-free interval (RFI) (p=0.004) and was marginally associated with a worse overall survival (p=0.074). A positive p53 status was not associated with worse outcomes. To validate the cut-off values of the Ki67 labeling index for identifying patients who may benefit from additional chemotherapy, prognostic factors were investigated in breast cancer patients treated postoperatively with endocrine therapy alone. Analysis of receiver operating characteristic curves demonstrated that a Ki67 labeling index cut-off of 20.0% was optimal for predicting recurrence among patients who did not receive adjuvant chemotherapy. The 5-year RFIs for patients with Ki67 <20 and ≥20% were 97.2 and 86.6%, respectively (p=0.0244). A high Ki67 labeling index (≥20%) was significantly associated with large tumors (p<0.01), lymph node metastasis (p=0.0236) and positive p53 status (p<0.001). The univariate analysis demonstrated that Ki67 labeling index ≥20%, lymph node metastasis and progesterone receptor negativity were significant worse prognostic factors for RFI (p=0.0333, 0.0116 and 0.0573, respectively). The Ki67 labeling index was found to be a useful prognostic factor in patients with ER-positive and HER2-negative breast cancer and the cut-off values of the Ki67 labeling index for making a decision regarding adjuvant treatment were validated. PMID:27073684

  17. Praise for regret: People value regret above other negative emotions

    PubMed Central

    Saffrey, Colleen; Summerville, Amy

    2008-01-01

    What do people think about the emotion of regret? Recent demonstrations of the psychological benefits of regret have been framed against an assumption that most people find regret to be aversive, both when experienced but also when recalled later. Two studies explored lay evaluations of regret experiences, revealing them to be largely favorable rather than unfavorable. Study 1 demonstrated that regret, but not other negative emotions, was dominated by positive more than negative evaluations. In both studies 1 and 2, although participants saw a great deal of benefit from their negative emotions, regret stood out as particularly beneficial. Indeed, in study 2, regret was seen to be the most beneficial of 12 negative emotions on all five functions of: making sense of past experiences, facilitating approach behaviors, facilitating avoidance behaviors, gaining insights into the self, and in preserving social harmony. Moreover, in study 2, individuals made self-serving ascriptions of regret, reporting greater regret experiences for themselves than for others. In short, people value their regrets substantially more than they do other negative emotions. PMID:18535665

  18. Personality Moderates the Interaction between Positive and Negative Daily Events Predicting Negative Affect and Stress

    PubMed Central

    Longua, Julie; DeHart, Tracy; Tennen, Howard; Armeli, Stephen

    2009-01-01

    A 30-day diary study examined personality moderators (neuroticism and extraversion) of the interaction between positive and negative daily events predicting daily negative affect and night-time stress. Multilevel analyses revealed positive daily events buffered the effect of negative daily events on negative affect for individuals low in neuroticism and individuals high in extraversion, but not for individuals high in neuroticism or individuals low in extraversion. Positive daily events also buffered the effect of negative daily events on that night’s stress, but only for participants low in neuroticism. As such, this research linked today’s events to tonight’s stressfulness. This study advances our understanding of how neuroticism and extraversion influence within-person associations between positive and negative events predicting negative affect and stress. PMID:20161239

  19. Values and uncertainties in climate prediction, revisited.

    PubMed

    Parker, Wendy

    2014-06-01

    Philosophers continue to debate both the actual and the ideal roles of values in science. Recently, Eric Winsberg has offered a novel, model-based challenge to those who argue that the internal workings of science can and should be kept free from the influence of social values. He contends that model-based assignments of probability to hypotheses about future climate change are unavoidably influenced by social values. I raise two objections to Winsberg's argument, neither of which can wholly undermine its conclusion but each of which suggests that his argument exaggerates the influence of social values on estimates of uncertainty in climate prediction. I then show how a more traditional challenge to the value-free ideal seems tailor-made for the climate context. PMID:25051868

  20. The Role of Sexual Orientation in Predicting Outcome Value and Communication Behaviors.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mottet, Timothy P.

    The purpose of this study was to first, examine the role of sexual orientation in determining positive or negative predicted outcome value during initial interactions and second, to test predicted-outcome-value (POV) theory which posits that predicted outcome values are related to future communication behaviors. Participants, 284 students enrolled…

  1. Prognostic and predictive value of NanoString-based immune-related gene signatures in a neoadjuvant setting of triple-negative breast cancer: relationship to tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes.

    PubMed

    Lee, Hee Jin; Lee, Jeong-Ju; Song, In Hye; Park, In Ah; Kang, Jun; Yu, Jong Han; Ahn, Jin-Hee; Gong, Gyungyub

    2015-06-01

    The prognostic significance of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes and immune signals has been described previously in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). Furthermore, recent studies have shown that immunologic parameters are relevant for the response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) in breast cancer as well as for outcomes after adjuvant chemotherapy. However, immune signals are variable, and which signals are important is largely unknown. We, therefore, evaluated the expression of immune-related genes in TNBC treated with NAC. We retrospectively evaluated biopsy tissue from 55 patients with primary TNBC treated with NAC (anthracycline, cyclophosphamide, and docetaxel) against the NanoString nCounter GX Human Immunology Panel (579 immune-related genes). Higher expression of cytotoxic molecules, T cell receptor signaling pathway components, cytokines related to T helper cell type 1 (Th1), and B cell markers was associated with a pathologic complete response (pCR). Higher expression of NFKB1, MAPK1, TRAF1, CXCL13, GZMK, and IL7R was significantly associated with pCR, higher Miller-Payne grade, and lower residual cancer burden class. Expression of NFKB1, TRAF1, and CXCL13genes, in particular, was significantly correlated with a longer disease-free survival rate. Conversely, patients those who failed to achieve a pCR showed increased expression of genes related to neutrophils. Higher expression of cytotoxic molecules, T cell receptor signaling pathway components, Th1-related cytokines, and B cell markers is correlated with pCR and survival in TNBC patients treated with NAC. Our results suggest that the activation status of neutrophils may provide additional predictive information for TNBC patients treated with NAC. PMID:26006068

  2. Predictive value and reward in implicit classification learning.

    PubMed

    Lam, Judith M; Wächter, Tobias; Globas, Christoph; Karnath, Hans-Otto; Luft, Andreas R

    2013-01-01

    Learning efficacy depends on its emotional context. The contents learned and the feedback received during training tinges this context. The objective here was to investigate the influence of content and feedback on the efficacy of implicit learning and to explore using functional imaging how these factors are processed in the brain. Twenty-one participants completed 150 trials of a probabilistic classification task (predicting sun or rain based on combinations of playing cards). Smileys or frowneys were presented as feedback. In 10 of these subjects, the task was performed during functional magnetic resonance imaging. Card combinations predicting sun were remembered better than those predicting rain. Similarly, positive feedback fortified learning more than negative feedback. The presentation of smileys recruited bilateral nucleus accumbens, sensorimotor cortex, and posterior cingulum more than negative feedback did. The higher the predictive value of a card combination, the more activation was found in the lateral cerebellum. Both context and feedback influence implicit classification learning. Similar to motor skill acquisition, positive feedback during classification learning is processed in part within the sensorimotor cortex, potentially reflecting the activation of a dopaminergic projection to motor cortex (Hosp et al., 2011). Activation of the lateral cerebellum during learning of combinations with high predictive value may reflect the formation of an internal model. PMID:22419392

  3. Error-related negativity predicts reinforcement learning and conflict biases.

    PubMed

    Frank, Michael J; Woroch, Brion S; Curran, Tim

    2005-08-18

    The error-related negativity (ERN) is an electrophysiological marker thought to reflect changes in dopamine when participants make errors in cognitive tasks. Our computational model further predicts that larger ERNs should be associated with better learning to avoid maladaptive responses. Here we show that participants who avoided negative events had larger ERNs than those who were biased to learn more from positive outcomes. We also tested for effects of response conflict on ERN magnitude. While there was no overall effect of conflict, positive learners had larger ERNs when having to choose among two good options (win/win decisions) compared with two bad options (lose/lose decisions), whereas negative learners exhibited the opposite pattern. These results demonstrate that the ERN predicts the degree to which participants are biased to learn more from their mistakes than their correct choices and clarify the extent to which it indexes decision conflict. PMID:16102533

  4. Predictive and prognostic value of FDG-PET

    PubMed Central

    Oyen, Wim J.G.

    2008-01-01

    Abstract The predictive and prognostic value of fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG)-positron emission tomography (PET) in non-small-cell lung carcinoma, colorectal carcinoma and lymphoma is discussed. The degree of FDG uptake is of prognostic value at initial presentation, after induction treatment prior to resection and in the case of relapse of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). In locally advanced and advanced stages of NSCLC, FDG-PET has been shown to be predictive for clinical outcome at an early stage of treatment. In colorectal carcinoma, limited studies are available on the prognostic value of FDG-PET, however, the technique appears to have great potential in monitoring the success of local ablative therapies soon after intervention and in the prediction and evaluation of response to radiotherapy, systemic therapy, and combinations thereof. The prognostic value of end-of treatment FDG-PET for FDG-avid lymphomas has been established, and the next step is to define how to use this information to optimize patient outcome. In Hodgkin's lymphoma, FDG-PET has a high negative predictive value, however, histological confirmation of positive findings should be sought where possible. For non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, the opposite applies. The newly published standardized guidelines for interpretation formulates specific criteria for visual interpretation and for defining PET positivity in the liver, spleen, lung, bone marrow and small residual lesions. The introduction of these guidelines should reduce variability among studies. Interim PET offers a reliable method for early prediction of long-term remission, however it should only be performed in prospective randomized controlled trials. Many of the diagnostic and management questions considered in this review are relevant to other tumour types. Further research in this field is of great importance, since it may lead to a change in the therapeutic concept of cancer. The preliminary findings call for systematic inclusion of FDG

  5. Emotion and hypervigilance: negative affect predicts increased P1 responses to non-negative pictorial stimuli.

    PubMed

    Schomberg, Jessica; Schöne, Benjamin; Gruber, Thomas; Quirin, Markus

    2016-06-01

    Previous research has demonstrated that negative affect influences attentional processes. Here, we investigate whether pre-experimental negative affect predicts a hypervigilant neural response as indicated by increased event-related potential amplitudes in response to neutral and positive visual stimuli. In our study, seventeen male participants filled out the German version of the positive and negative affect schedule (Watson et al. in J Pers Soc Psychol 54:1063-1070, 1988; Krohne et al. in Diagnostica 42:139-156, 1996) and subsequently watched positive (erotica, extreme sports, beautiful women) and neutral (daily activities) photographs while electroencephalogram was recorded. In line with our hypothesis, low state negative affect but not (reduced) positive affect predicted an increase in the first positive event-related potential amplitude P1 as a typical marker of increased selective attention. As this effect occurred in response to non-threatening picture conditions, negative affect may foster an individual's general hypervigilance, a state that has formerly been associated with psychopathology only. PMID:26749180

  6. Impaired Neural Response to Negative Prediction Errors in Cocaine Addiction

    PubMed Central

    Parvaz, Muhammad A.; Konova, Anna B.; Proudfit, Greg H.; Dunning, Jonathan P.; Malaker, Pias; Moeller, Scott J.; Maloney, Tom; Alia-Klein, Nelly

    2015-01-01

    Learning can be guided by unexpected success or failure, signaled via dopaminergic positive reward prediction error (+RPE) and negative reward-prediction error (−RPE) signals, respectively. Despite conflicting empirical evidence, RPE signaling is thought to be impaired in drug addiction. To resolve this outstanding question, we studied as a measure of RPE the feedback negativity (FN) that is sensitive to both reward and the violation of expectation. We examined FN in 25 healthy controls; 25 individuals with cocaine-use disorder (CUD) who tested positive for cocaine on the study day (CUD+), indicating cocaine use within the past 72 h; and in 25 individuals with CUD who tested negative for cocaine (CUD−). EEG was acquired while the participants performed a gambling task predicting whether they would win or lose money on each trial given three known win probabilities (25, 50, or 75%). FN was scored for the period in each trial when the actual outcome (win or loss) was revealed. A significant interaction between prediction, outcome, and group revealed that controls showed increased FN to unpredicted compared with predicted wins (i.e., intact +RPE) and decreased FN to unpredicted compared with predicted losses (i.e., intact −RPE). However, neither CUD subgroup showed FN modulation to loss (i.e., impaired −RPE), and unlike CUD+ individuals, CUD− individuals also did not show FN modulation to win (i.e., impaired +RPE). Thus, using FN, the current study directly documents −RPE deficits in CUD individuals. The mechanisms underlying −RPE signaling impairments in addiction may contribute to the disadvantageous nature of excessive drug use, which can persist despite repeated unfavorable life experiences (e.g., frequent incarcerations). PMID:25653348

  7. Impaired neural response to negative prediction errors in cocaine addiction.

    PubMed

    Parvaz, Muhammad A; Konova, Anna B; Proudfit, Greg H; Dunning, Jonathan P; Malaker, Pias; Moeller, Scott J; Maloney, Tom; Alia-Klein, Nelly; Goldstein, Rita Z

    2015-02-01

    Learning can be guided by unexpected success or failure, signaled via dopaminergic positive reward prediction error (+RPE) and negative reward-prediction error (-RPE) signals, respectively. Despite conflicting empirical evidence, RPE signaling is thought to be impaired in drug addiction. To resolve this outstanding question, we studied as a measure of RPE the feedback negativity (FN) that is sensitive to both reward and the violation of expectation. We examined FN in 25 healthy controls; 25 individuals with cocaine-use disorder (CUD) who tested positive for cocaine on the study day (CUD+), indicating cocaine use within the past 72 h; and in 25 individuals with CUD who tested negative for cocaine (CUD-). EEG was acquired while the participants performed a gambling task predicting whether they would win or lose money on each trial given three known win probabilities (25, 50, or 75%). FN was scored for the period in each trial when the actual outcome (win or loss) was revealed. A significant interaction between prediction, outcome, and group revealed that controls showed increased FN to unpredicted compared with predicted wins (i.e., intact +RPE) and decreased FN to unpredicted compared with predicted losses (i.e., intact -RPE). However, neither CUD subgroup showed FN modulation to loss (i.e., impaired -RPE), and unlike CUD+ individuals, CUD- individuals also did not show FN modulation to win (i.e., impaired +RPE). Thus, using FN, the current study directly documents -RPE deficits in CUD individuals. The mechanisms underlying -RPE signaling impairments in addiction may contribute to the disadvantageous nature of excessive drug use, which can persist despite repeated unfavorable life experiences (e.g., frequent incarcerations). PMID:25653348

  8. Predicting Positive and Negative Relationships in Large Social Networks

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Guan-Nan; Gao, Hui; Chen, Lian; Mensah, Dennis N. A.; Fu, Yan

    2015-01-01

    In a social network, users hold and express positive and negative attitudes (e.g. support/opposition) towards other users. Those attitudes exhibit some kind of binary relationships among the users, which play an important role in social network analysis. However, some of those binary relationships are likely to be latent as the scale of social network increases. The essence of predicting latent binary relationships have recently began to draw researchers' attention. In this paper, we propose a machine learning algorithm for predicting positive and negative relationships in social networks inspired by structural balance theory and social status theory. More specifically, we show that when two users in the network have fewer common neighbors, the prediction accuracy of the relationship between them deteriorates. Accordingly, in the training phase, we propose a segment-based training framework to divide the training data into two subsets according to the number of common neighbors between users, and build a prediction model for each subset based on support vector machine (SVM). Moreover, to deal with large-scale social network data, we employ a sampling strategy that selects small amount of training data while maintaining high accuracy of prediction. We compare our algorithm with traditional algorithms and adaptive boosting of them. Experimental results of typical data sets show that our algorithm can deal with large social networks and consistently outperforms other methods. PMID:26075404

  9. Prediction of negative dispersion by a nonlocal poroelastic theory.

    PubMed

    Chakraborty, Abir

    2008-01-01

    The objective of this work is to show that the negative dispersion of ultrasonic waves propagating in cancellous bone can be explained by a nonlocal version of Biot's theory of poroelasticity. The nonlocal poroelastic formulation is presented in this work and the exact solutions for one- and two-dimensional systems are obtained by the method of Fourier transform. The nonlocal phase speeds for solid- and fluid-borne waves show the desired negative dispersion where the magnitude of dispersion is strongly dependent on the nonlocal parameters and porosity. Dependence of the phase speed and attenuation is studied for both porosity and frequency variation. It is shown that the nonlocal parameter can be easily estimated by comparing the theoretical dispersion rate with experimental observations. It is also shown that the modes of Lamb waves show similar negative dispersion when predicted by the nonlocal poroelastic theory. PMID:18177138

  10. The Roles of Negative Career Thoughts and Sense of Coherence in Predicting Career Decision Status

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Austin, R. Kirk; Dahl, A. Dennis; Wagner, Bruce D.

    2010-01-01

    The relationship between sense of coherence and negative career thoughts was investigated in a non-college-based population to determine the relationship and predictive value of these factors toward career decision status. Participants completed the Orientation to Life Questionnaire, Career Thoughts Inventory, and Career Decision Profile's…

  11. Chasing probabilities - Signaling negative and positive prediction errors across domains.

    PubMed

    Meder, David; Madsen, Kristoffer H; Hulme, Oliver; Siebner, Hartwig R

    2016-07-01

    Adaptive actions build on internal probabilistic models of possible outcomes that are tuned according to the errors of their predictions when experiencing an actual outcome. Prediction errors (PEs) inform choice behavior across a diversity of outcome domains and dimensions, yet neuroimaging studies have so far only investigated such signals in singular experimental contexts. It is thus unclear whether the neuroanatomical distribution of PE encoding reported previously pertains to computational features that are invariant with respect to outcome valence, sensory domain, or some combination of the two. We acquired functional MRI data while volunteers performed four probabilistic reversal learning tasks which differed in terms of outcome valence (reward-seeking versus punishment-avoidance) and domain (abstract symbols versus facial expressions) of outcomes. We found that ventral striatum and frontopolar cortex coded increasingly positive PEs, whereas dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC) traced increasingly negative PEs, irrespectively of the outcome dimension. Individual reversal behavior was unaffected by context manipulations and was predicted by activity in dACC and right inferior frontal gyrus (IFG). The stronger the response to negative PEs in these areas, the lower was the tendency to reverse choice behavior in response to negative events, suggesting that these regions enforce a rule-based strategy across outcome dimensions. Outcome valence influenced PE-related activity in left amygdala, IFG, and dorsomedial prefrontal cortex, where activity selectively scaled with increasingly positive PEs in the reward-seeking but not punishment-avoidance context, irrespective of sensory domain. Left amygdala displayed an additional influence of sensory domain. In the context of avoiding punishment, amygdala activity increased with increasingly negative PEs, but only for facial stimuli, indicating an integration of outcome valence and sensory domain during probabilistic

  12. Believing Is Seeing: Fixation Duration Predicts Implicit Negative Attitudes

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    A prototypical finding of social cognition is that social experiences influence later performance even though those experiences are not introspectively available. Building on social cognition research on implicit attitudes, we evaluate whether ethnic category/attribute pairs influence eye movements during the Implicit Association Test (IAT, Greenwald, McGhee, & Schwartz 1998). Results show that fixation duration predicted implicit attitudes such that when the category/attribute pairs disconfirmed one's implicit negative attitude fixation duration toward that pair increased. The present research provides evidence that eye movements and implicit processes inherent in the IAT are more broadly connected than previously thought. PMID:25133639

  13. Negative correlation learning for customer churn prediction: a comparison study.

    PubMed

    Rodan, Ali; Fayyoumi, Ayham; Faris, Hossam; Alsakran, Jamal; Al-Kadi, Omar

    2015-01-01

    Recently, telecommunication companies have been paying more attention toward the problem of identification of customer churn behavior. In business, it is well known for service providers that attracting new customers is much more expensive than retaining existing ones. Therefore, adopting accurate models that are able to predict customer churn can effectively help in customer retention campaigns and maximizing the profit. In this paper we will utilize an ensemble of Multilayer perceptrons (MLP) whose training is obtained using negative correlation learning (NCL) for predicting customer churn in a telecommunication company. Experiments results confirm that NCL based MLP ensemble can achieve better generalization performance (high churn rate) compared with ensemble of MLP without NCL (flat ensemble) and other common data mining techniques used for churn analysis. PMID:25879060

  14. Negative Correlation Learning for Customer Churn Prediction: A Comparison Study

    PubMed Central

    Faris, Hossam

    2015-01-01

    Recently, telecommunication companies have been paying more attention toward the problem of identification of customer churn behavior. In business, it is well known for service providers that attracting new customers is much more expensive than retaining existing ones. Therefore, adopting accurate models that are able to predict customer churn can effectively help in customer retention campaigns and maximizing the profit. In this paper we will utilize an ensemble of Multilayer perceptrons (MLP) whose training is obtained using negative correlation learning (NCL) for predicting customer churn in a telecommunication company. Experiments results confirm that NCL based MLP ensemble can achieve better generalization performance (high churn rate) compared with ensemble of MLP without NCL (flat ensemble) and other common data mining techniques used for churn analysis. PMID:25879060

  15. The devil is in the specificity: the negative effect of prediction specificity on prediction accuracy.

    PubMed

    Yoon, Song-Oh; Suk, Kwanho; Goo, Jin Kyung; Lee, Jiheon; Lee, Seon Min

    2013-07-01

    In the research reported here, we proposed and demonstrated the prediction-specificity effect, which states that people's prediction of the general outcome of an event (e.g., the winner of a soccer match) is less accurate when the prediction question is framed in a more specific manner (e.g., guessing the score) rather than in a less specific manner (e.g., guessing the winner). We demonstrated this effect by examining people's predictions on actual sports games both in field and laboratory studies. In Study 1, the analysis of 19 billion bets from a commercial sports-betting business provided evidence for the effect of prediction specificity. This effect was replicated in three controlled laboratory studies, in which participants predicted the outcomes of a series of soccer matches. Furthermore, the negative effect of prediction specificity was mediated by participants' underweighting of important holistic information during decision making. PMID:23660410

  16. Predictive value of induction of psychogenic seizures by suggestion.

    PubMed

    Lancman, M E; Asconapé, J J; Craven, W J; Howard, G; Penry, J K

    1994-03-01

    Induction by suggestion has previously been reported to be effective in the diagnosis of psychogenic seizures (PS). However, the sensitivity and specificity of this procedure has not previously been studied. Results of induction of PS by suggestion were analyzed in 93 patients with purely PS. The diagnosis of PS was based on the recording of a clinical event on video-electroencephalography, the absence of clinical or electroencephalography the absence of clinical or electroencephalographic evidence of epilepsy, and the subsequent followup and withdrawal of anticonvulsants supporting the diagnosis of PS. A control-group was composed of 20 patients with epilepsy in which induction was tried. Both groups were comparable for age, sex, and educational level. Induction was performed following a standardized protocol. The test was carried out placing a colored patch on the neck. The test was considered positive when the induced clinical events were typical, according to a witness familiar with the patient's seizures. Induction was positive in 72 of 93 cases with PS and in none with epilepsy. Sensitivity of this test for the diagnosis of PS was 77.4%, specificity 100%, positive predictive value 100%, and negative predictive value 48.7%. PMID:8122889

  17. Human attitudes towards herpetofauna: The influence of folklore and negative values on the conservation of amphibians and reptiles in Portugal

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Human values and folklore of wildlife strongly influence the effectiveness of conservation efforts. These values and folklore may also vary with certain demographic characteristics such as gender, age, or education. Reptiles and amphibians are among the least appreciated of vertebrates and are victims of many negative values and wrong ideas resulting from the direct interpretation of folklore. We try to demonstrate how these values and folklore can affect the way people relate to them and also the possible conservation impacts on these animals. Methods A questionnaire survey distributed to 514 people in the district of Évora, Portugal, was used to obtain data regarding the hypothesis that the existence of wrong ideas and negative values contributes to the phenomenon of human-associated persecution of these animals. A structural equation model was specified in order to confirm the hypothesis about the possible relationships between the presence of perceptions and negative values about amphibians and reptiles and persecution and anti-conservation attitudes. Sociodemographic variables were also added. Results The results of the model suggest that the presence of folklore and negative values clearly predicts persecution and anti-conservation attitudes towards amphibians and reptiles. Also, the existence of folklore varies sociodemographically, but negative values concerning these animals are widespread in the population. Conclusions With the use of structural equation models, this work is a contribution to the study of how certain ideas and values can directly influence human attitudes towards herpetofauna and how they can be a serious conservation issue. PMID:22316318

  18. Negative-Margin Criterion for Impact-Response Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, Denton

    2006-01-01

    Some space missions require a nuclear-power source to generate electrical power to meet mission objectives. At present, the nuclear-power source is an assembly of modular heat sources called the general purpose heat source (GPHS) modules. Each module comprises graphite shells designed to protect iridium-alloy clads which serve as the primary containment shells for the radioactive, heat-producing material. In the course of launching the space vehicle to perform its mission the nuclear heat source may be exposed to severe accident environments. One particular environment is a primary impact event where individual GPHS modules impact hard surfaces at speeds in the range of 50 meters per second or more. Tests have shown that some clads may be breached in particularly severe impacts and release a small fraction of their contents. This paper presents an empirical model for predicting essential ingredients for assessing the risk associated with primary impact events. The ingredients include: clad failure probability, release fraction of clad contents, characterization of the released material in terms of particle-size distribution and a means to estimate uncertainty in the prediction process. The empirical model focuses on the deformation of the clads and their capability to withstand deformation without breaching, measured by ductility. The basic criterion used to estimate all ingredients is called ``negative margin''. The procedure for estimating risk factors entails calculation of clad distortion by, e.g. hydrocode simulation, and high-strain-rate ductility of the iridium alloy. Negative margin is a linear combination of distortion and ductility. Regression equations derived from test data are used to calculate the clad failure probability and the fractional activity release as functions of negative margin. The mass-based particle-size distribution is calculated as a function of release fraction. Cumulative uncertainty in this computing process is evaluated using

  19. Evaluating the Predictive Value of Growth Prediction Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Murphy, Daniel L.; Gaertner, Matthew N.

    2014-01-01

    This study evaluates four growth prediction models--projection, student growth percentile, trajectory, and transition table--commonly used to forecast (and give schools credit for) middle school students' future proficiency. Analyses focused on vertically scaled summative mathematics assessments, and two performance standards conditions (high…

  20. Childhood negative emotionality predicts biobehavioral dysregulation fifteen years later.

    PubMed

    Hagan, Melissa J; Luecken, Linda J; Modecki, Kathryn L; Sandler, Irwin N; Wolchik, Sharlene A

    2016-09-01

    The temperamental trait of negative emotionality (NE) plays an important role in maladaptation among adults experiencing significant life stress. However, the prospective relation between childhood NE and subsequent interrelated behavioral, emotional, and biological dysregulation in later life has not yet been established among children who experience early adversity. Using a longitudinal sample of youth who experienced parental divorce during childhood (N = 160; 53% male; 83% White), we tested the hypothesis that childhood NE would predict physiological, emotional, and behavioral dysregulation 15 years later. NE was assessed by maternal report when youth were between 9 and 12 years old. Fifteen years later, young adults (mean age = 25.55 years) participated in a psychosocial stress task to assess cortisol reactivity and reported on internalizing symptoms and problematic alcohol use. Structural equation modeling revealed that higher childhood NE predicted significantly greater alcohol use, internalizing symptoms, and total cortisol output during a stress task 15 years later. Importantly, these findings held after adjusting for childhood internalizing symptoms. In addition, problematic alcohol use was associated with greater cortisol reactivity and internalizing symptoms. Findings suggest that childhood NE is a critical risk marker for interrelated forms of dysregulation in young adulthood among at-risk youth. (PsycINFO Database Record PMID:27100364

  1. Predictive value of primate models for AIDS.

    PubMed

    Haigwood, Nancy L

    2004-01-01

    A number of obstacles remain in the search for an animal model for HIV infection and pathogenesis that can serve to predict efficacy in humans. HIV-1 fails to replicate and cause disease except in humans or chimpanzees, thereby limiting our ability to evaluate compounds or vaccines prior to human testing. Despite this limitation, nonhuman primate lentivirus models have been established that recapitulate the modes of infection, disease course, and antiviral immunity that is seen in HIV infection of humans. These models have been utilized to understand key aspects of disease and to evaluate concepts in therapies and vaccine development. By necessity, animal models can only be validated after successful trials in humans and the determination of correlates of protection. Because the only vaccine product tested in phase III trials in humans failed to achieve the desired protective threshold, we are as yet unable to validate any of the currently used nonhuman primate models for vaccine research. In the absence of a validated model, many experts in the field have concluded that prophylactic vaccines and therapeutic concepts should bypass primate models, and rely solely upon the systematic testing of each individual and combined vaccine element in human phase I or I/II trials to determine their relative merits. Indeed, a large effort is underway to expand efforts to test all products as part of an international effort termed "The HIV Vaccine Enterprise", with major contributions from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. This Herculean task could potentially be reduced if it were possible to utilize even partially validated nonhuman primate models as part of the screening efforts. The purpose of this article is to review the data from nonhuman primate models that have contributed to our understanding of lentivirus infection and pathogenesis, and to critically evaluate how well these models have predicted outcomes in humans. Key features of the models developed to date are

  2. Predicting Response to Depression Treatment: The Role of Negative Cognition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beevers, Christopher G.; Wells, Tony T.; Miller, Ivan W.

    2007-01-01

    Repeated experiences with major depressive disorder (MDD) may strengthen associations between negative thinking and dysphoria, rendering negative cognition more accessible and pronounced with each episode. According to cognitive theory, greater negative cognition should lead to a more protracted episode of depression. In this study of 121 adults…

  3. Negative HPV screening test predicts low cervical cancer risk better than negative Pap test

    Cancer.gov

    Based on a study that included more than 1 million women, investigators at NCI have determined that a negative test for HPV infection compared to a negative Pap test provides greater safety, or assurance, against future risk of cervical cancer.

  4. Platelet Mass Predicts Intracranial Hemorrhage in Neonates With Gram-negative Sepsis.

    PubMed

    Mitsiakos, Georgios; Pana, Zoe-Dorothea; Chatziioannidis, Ilias; Piltsouli, Dimitra; Lazaridou, Eleni; Koulourida, Vasiliki; Papadimitriou, Aikaterini; Nikolaidis, Nikolaos; Roilides, Emmanuel

    2015-10-01

    Neonatal sepsis due to gram-negative bacteria is associated with severe hemorrhagic conditions, such as intracranial hemorrhage (ICH). The aim of the study was to investigate the significance of platelet (PLT) count and platelet mass (PM) in predicting promptly neonatal ICH. Demographics, species, PLT, PM, ICH, and outcome for neonates with gram-negative sepsis for the period 2005 to 2012 were retrospectively recorded. Eighty-four infants were enrolled with median gestational age 30 weeks, median birthweight 1481.5 g, and median age at sepsis diagnosis 23 days. The most frequently isolated bacteria were Enterobacter spp. (38.1%). ICH occurred in 16 neonates (19%), whereas the mortality rate was 25% (21 neonates). The median PLT count and PM at days 1, 2, and 3 after diagnosis of gram-negative sepsis was significantly associated with the presence of ICH. Regression analysis revealed the cutoff predictive value of 355 fL/nL for the PM at day 3 (area under the curve: 75, sensitivity 90%, P=0.002). PM levels could play an important role in predicting the occurrence of ICH in high-risk neonates. PMID:26376234

  5. Predictive value of mean platelet volume in gold induced thrombocytopenia.

    PubMed Central

    Klimiuk, P S; Holt, P J; Clague, R B; Herod, E; Dyer, P A

    1987-01-01

    In rheumatoid arthritis the mean platelet volume does not alter with the institution of parenteral gold therapy and with long term gold therapy. It appears to have no value in predicting the onset of thrombocytopenia. It may, however, predict a haemorrhagic diathesis once gold induced thrombocytopenia is established. PMID:3813673

  6. When bad moods may not be so bad: Valuing negative affect is associated with weakened affect-health links.

    PubMed

    Luong, Gloria; Wrzus, Cornelia; Wagner, Gert G; Riediger, Michaela

    2016-04-01

    Bad moods are considered "bad" not only because they may be aversive experiences in and of themselves, but also because they are associated with poorer psychosocial functioning and health. We propose that people differ in their negative affect valuation (NAV; the extent to which negative affective states are valued as pleasant, useful/helpful, appropriate, and meaningful experiences) and that affect-health links are moderated by NAV. These predictions were tested in a life span sample of 365 participants ranging from 14-88 years of age using reports of momentary negative affect and physical well-being (via experience sampling) and assessments of NAV and psychosocial and physical functioning (via computer-assisted personal interviews and behavioral measures of hand grip strength). Our study demonstrated that the more individuals valued negative affect, the less pronounced (and sometimes even nonexistent) were the associations between everyday experiences of negative affect and a variety of indicators of poorer psychosocial functioning (i.e., emotional health problems, social integration) and physical health (i.e., number of health conditions, health complaints, hand grip strength, momentary physical well-being). Exploratory analyses revealed that valuing positive affect was not associated with the analogous moderating effects as NAV. These findings suggest that it may be particularly important to consider NAV in models of affect-health links. (PsycINFO Database Record PMID:26571077

  7. Mechanism of negative thermal expansion in LaC2 from first-principles prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Yaming; Jia, Yu; Sun, Qiang; Liang, Erjun

    2015-01-01

    Based on density functional theory and quasiharmonic approximation, the coefficients of thermal expansion (CTE) and negative thermal expansion (NTE) mechanism of tetragonal LaC2 are studied. Numerical results show that there is an obvious NTE parallel to c-axis, and the CTE is approximately αc = - 1.67 ×10-6K-1, which coincides with the experimental data - 1.0 ×10-6K-1. In particular, a tiny NTE phenomenon along a-axis below 10 K has been predicted. The vibrational modes Eu and Eg at Γ (0 , 0 , 0), and other three modes at M (0.5 , 0.5 , 0) and Z (0 , 0 , 0.5), give rise to negative Grüneisen parameters and therefore contribute to the NTE along a- and c-axis. Additionally, the bulk CTE was calculated to be positive, our CTE values and temperature intervals agree well with the presented experiments.

  8. Accurate perception of negative emotions predicts functional capacity in schizophrenia.

    PubMed

    Abram, Samantha V; Karpouzian, Tatiana M; Reilly, James L; Derntl, Birgit; Habel, Ute; Smith, Matthew J

    2014-04-30

    Several studies suggest facial affect perception (FAP) deficits in schizophrenia are linked to poorer social functioning. However, whether reduced functioning is associated with inaccurate perception of specific emotional valence or a global FAP impairment remains unclear. The present study examined whether impairment in the perception of specific emotional valences (positive, negative) and neutrality were uniquely associated with social functioning, using a multimodal social functioning battery. A sample of 59 individuals with schizophrenia and 41 controls completed a computerized FAP task, and measures of functional capacity, social competence, and social attainment. Participants also underwent neuropsychological testing and symptom assessment. Regression analyses revealed that only accurately perceiving negative emotions explained significant variance (7.9%) in functional capacity after accounting for neurocognitive function and symptoms. Partial correlations indicated that accurately perceiving anger, in particular, was positively correlated with functional capacity. FAP for positive, negative, or neutral emotions were not related to social competence or social attainment. Our findings were consistent with prior literature suggesting negative emotions are related to functional capacity in schizophrenia. Furthermore, the observed relationship between perceiving anger and performance of everyday living skills is novel and warrants further exploration. PMID:24524947

  9. Caregiving and Dementia: Predicting Negative and Positive Outcomes for Caregivers.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gold, Dolores Pushkar; And Others

    1995-01-01

    Interviewed a sample of 118 caregivers maintaining relatives with dementia at home, who completed questionnaires at initial and follow-up assessment 6 months later. All dependents received a cognitive assessment. Results of data analysis supported a model of caregiving in which negative outcomes of burden and impaired health reduced positive…

  10. Positive and negative emotional contexts unevenly predict episodic memory.

    PubMed

    Martínez-Galindo, Joyce Graciela; Cansino, Selene

    2015-09-15

    The aim of this study was to investigate whether the recognition of faces with neutral expressions differs when they are encoded under different emotional contexts (positive, negative or non-emotional). The effects of the emotional valence context on the subsequent memory effect (SME) and the autonomic responses were also examined. Twenty-eight participants performed a betting-game task in which the faces of their virtual opponents were presented in each trial. The probability of winning or losing was manipulated to generate positive or negative contexts, respectively. Additionally, the participants performed the same task without betting as a non-emotional condition. After the encoding phase, an old/new paradigm was performed for the faces of the virtual opponents. The recognition was superior for the faces encoded in the positive contexts than for the faces encoded in the non-emotional contexts. The skin conductance response amplitude was equivalent for both of the emotional contexts. The N170 and P300 components at occipital sites and the frontal slow wave manifested SMEs that were modulated by positive contexts; neither negative nor non-emotional contexts influenced these effects. The behavioral and neurophysiological data demonstrated that positive contexts are stronger predictors of episodic memory than negative or non-emotional contexts. PMID:26003944

  11. Amygdala reactivity predicts automatic negative evaluations for facial emotions.

    PubMed

    Dannlowski, Udo; Ohrmann, Patricia; Bauer, Jochen; Kugel, Harald; Arolt, Volker; Heindel, Walter; Suslow, Thomas

    2007-01-15

    The amygdala is a key structure in a limbic circuit involved in the rapid and unconscious processing of facial emotions. In the present study, the role of the amygdala in automatic, involuntary appraisal processes, which are believed to be a crucial component of emotion processing, was investigated in 23 healthy subjects. Amygdala activity was recorded in response to masked displays of angry, sad, and happy facial expressions using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). In a subsequent experiment, the subjects performed a masked affective priming task that characterizes automatic emotion processing by investigating the biasing effect of subliminally presented emotional faces on evaluative ratings to subsequently presented neutral stimuli. In the affective priming task, significant valence-congruent evaluation manipulation was observed. Subjects rated neutral targets more positively if they were primed by happy faces. Significant correlations were found between amygdala responses to masked negative facial expressions and negative evaluation shifts elicited by the corresponding emotion quality in the affective priming task. Spontaneous amygdala reactivity to facial emotions appears to be a determinant of automatic negative evaluative response tendencies. This finding might shed some light on how amygdala hyperresponsivity contributes to negative cognitive biases commonly observed in affective disorders. PMID:17182226

  12. Multiple trait genomic selection methods increase genetic value prediction accuracy

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Genomic selection predicts genetic values with genome-wide markers. It is rapidly emerging in plant breeding and is widely implemented in animal breeding. Genetic correlations between quantitative traits are pervasive in many breeding programs. These correlations indicate that measurements of one tr...

  13. Value Preferences Predicting Narcissistic Personality Traits in Young Adults

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gungor, Ibrahim Halil; Eksi, Halil; Aricak, Osman Tolga

    2012-01-01

    This study aimed at showing how the value preferences of young adults could predict the narcissistic characteristics of young adults according to structural equation modeling. 133 female (59.6%) and 90 male (40.4%), total 223 young adults participated the study (average age: 25.66, ranging from 20 to 38). Ratio group sampling method was used while…

  14. Observed Measures of Negative Parenting Predict Brain Development during Adolescence

    PubMed Central

    Whittle, Sarah; Vijayakumar, Nandita; Dennison, Meg; Schwartz, Orli; Simmons, Julian G.; Sheeber, Lisa; Allen, Nicholas B.

    2016-01-01

    Limited attention has been directed toward the influence of non-abusive parenting behaviour on brain structure in adolescents. It has been suggested that environmental influences during this period are likely to impact the way that the brain develops over time. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between aggressive and positive parenting behaviors on brain development from early to late adolescence, and in turn, psychological and academic functioning during late adolescence, using a multi-wave longitudinal design. Three hundred and sixty seven magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans were obtained over three time points from 166 adolescents (11–20 years). At the first time point, observed measures of maternal aggressive and positive behaviors were obtained. At the final time point, measures of psychological and academic functioning were obtained. Results indicated that a higher frequency of maternal aggressive behavior was associated with alterations in the development of right superior frontal and lateral parietal cortical thickness, and of nucleus accumbens volume, in males. Development of the superior frontal cortex in males mediated the relationship between maternal aggressive behaviour and measures of late adolescent functioning. We suggest that our results support an association between negative parenting and adolescent functioning, which may be mediated by immature or delayed brain maturation. PMID:26824348

  15. Observed Measures of Negative Parenting Predict Brain Development during Adolescence.

    PubMed

    Whittle, Sarah; Vijayakumar, Nandita; Dennison, Meg; Schwartz, Orli; Simmons, Julian G; Sheeber, Lisa; Allen, Nicholas B

    2016-01-01

    Limited attention has been directed toward the influence of non-abusive parenting behaviour on brain structure in adolescents. It has been suggested that environmental influences during this period are likely to impact the way that the brain develops over time. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between aggressive and positive parenting behaviors on brain development from early to late adolescence, and in turn, psychological and academic functioning during late adolescence, using a multi-wave longitudinal design. Three hundred and sixty seven magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans were obtained over three time points from 166 adolescents (11-20 years). At the first time point, observed measures of maternal aggressive and positive behaviors were obtained. At the final time point, measures of psychological and academic functioning were obtained. Results indicated that a higher frequency of maternal aggressive behavior was associated with alterations in the development of right superior frontal and lateral parietal cortical thickness, and of nucleus accumbens volume, in males. Development of the superior frontal cortex in males mediated the relationship between maternal aggressive behaviour and measures of late adolescent functioning. We suggest that our results support an association between negative parenting and adolescent functioning, which may be mediated by immature or delayed brain maturation. PMID:26824348

  16. Regulatory Forum Opinion Piece*: The Value of Publishing Negative Scientific Study Data.

    PubMed

    Boorman, Gary A; Foster, John R; Laast, Victoria A; Francke, Sabine

    2015-10-01

    Historically it has been easier to publish positive scientific results than negative data not supporting the research hypothesis. This appears to be increasing, with fewer negative studies appearing in the literature across many disciplines. Failure to recognize the value of negative results has important implications for the toxicology community. Implications include perpetuating scientific fields based upon selective or occasionally erroneous, positive results. One example is decreased vaccination rates and increased measles infections that can lead to childhood mortality following one erroneous positive study linking vaccination to adverse effects despite multiple negative studies. Publication of negative data that challenges existing paradigms enhances progress by stopping further investment in scientifically barren topics, decreases the use of animals, and focuses research in more fruitful areas. The National Toxicology Program (NTP) publishes both positive and negative rodent data. Retrospective analysis of the NTP database has provided insights on the carcinogenic process and in the gradual acceptance of using fewer animals in safety studies. This article proposes that careful publication of both positive and negative data can enhance product safety assessment, add robustness to safety determinations in the regulatory decision-making process, and should be actively encouraged by those determining journal editorial policy. PMID:26269614

  17. Predictive Value of HIV-1 Genotypic Resistance Test Interpretation Algorithms

    PubMed Central

    Rhee, Soo-Yon; Fessel, W. Jeffrey; Liu, Tommy F.; Marlowe, Natalia M.; Rowland, Charles M.; Rode, Richard A.; Vandamme, Anne-Mieke; Laethem, Kristel Van; Brun-Vezinet, Francçoise; Calvez, Vincent; Taylor, Jonathan; Hurley, Leo; Horberg, Michael; Shafer, Robert W.

    2016-01-01

    Background Interpreting human immunodeficienc virus type 1 (HIV-1) genotypic drug-resistance test results is challenging for clinicians treating HIV-1–infected patients. Multiple drug-resistance interpretation algorithms have been developed, but their predictive value has rarely been evaluated using contemporary clinical data sets. Methods We examined the predictive value of 4 algorithms at predicting virologic response (VR) during 734 treatment-change episodes (TCEs). VR was define as attaining plasma HIV-1 RNA levels below the limit of quantification Drug-specifi genotypic susceptibility scores (GSSs) were calculated by applying each algorithm to the baseline genotype. Weighted GSSs were calculated by multiplying drug-specifi GSSs by antiretroviral (ARV) potency factors. Regimen-specifi GSSs (rGSSs) were calculated by adding unweighted or weighted drug-specif c GSSs for each salvage therapy ARV. The predictive value of rGSSs were estimated by use of multivariate logistic regression. Results Of 734 TCEs, 475 (65%) were associated with VR. The rGSSs for the 4 algorithms were the variables most strongly predictive of VR. The adjusted rGSS odds ratios ranged from 1.6 to 2.2 (P < .001). Using 10-fold cross-validation, the averaged area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for all algorithms increased from 0.76 with unweighted rGSSs to 0.80 with weighted rGSSs. Conclusions Unweighted and weighted rGSSs of 4 genotypic resistance algorithms were the strongest independent predictors of VR. Optimizing ARV weighting may further improve VR predictions. PMID:19552527

  18. Mismatch negativity encoding of prediction errors predicts S-ketamine-induced cognitive impairments.

    PubMed

    Schmidt, André; Bachmann, Rosilla; Kometer, Michael; Csomor, Philipp A; Stephan, Klaas E; Seifritz, Erich; Vollenweider, Franz X

    2012-03-01

    Psychotomimetics like the N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor (NMDAR) antagonist ketamine and the 5-hydroxytryptamine2A receptor (5-HT(2A)R) agonist psilocybin induce psychotic symptoms in healthy volunteers that resemble those of schizophrenia. Recent theories of psychosis posit that aberrant encoding of prediction errors (PE) may underlie the expression of psychotic symptoms. This study used a roving mismatch negativity (MMN) paradigm to investigate whether the encoding of PE is affected by pharmacological manipulation of NMDAR or 5-HT(2A)R, and whether the encoding of PE under placebo can be used to predict drug-induced symptoms. Using a double-blind within-subject placebo-controlled design, S-ketamine and psilocybin, respectively, were administrated to two groups of healthy subjects. Psychological alterations were assessed using a revised version of the Altered States of Consciousness (ASC-R) questionnaire. As an index of PE, we computed changes in MMN amplitudes as a function of the number of preceding standards (MMN memory trace effect) during a roving paradigm. S-ketamine, but not psilocybin, disrupted PE processing as expressed by a frontally disrupted MMN memory trace effect. Although both drugs produced positive-like symptoms, the extent of PE processing under placebo only correlated significantly with the severity of cognitive impairments induced by S-ketamine. Our results suggest that the NMDAR, but not the 5-HT(2A)R system, is implicated in PE processing during the MMN paradigm, and that aberrant PE signaling may contribute to the formation of cognitive impairments. The assessment of the MMN memory trace in schizophrenia may allow detecting early phases of the illness and might also serve to assess the efficacy of novel pharmacological treatments, in particular of cognitive impairments. PMID:22030715

  19. Prediction of mortality rates in the presence of missing values

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, Chon Sern; Pooi, Ah Hin

    2015-12-01

    A time series model based on multivariate power-normal distribution has been applied in the past literature on the United States (US) mortality data from the years 1933 to 2000 to forecast the future age-specific mortality rates of the years 2001 to 2010. In this paper, we show that the method based on multivariate power-normal distribution can still be used for an incomplete US mortality dataset that contains some missing values. The prediction intervals based on this incomplete training data are found to still have good ability of covering the observed future mortality rates although the interval lengths may become wider for long-range prediction.

  20. Predicting Bullying: Exploring the Contributions of Childhood Negative Life Experiences in Predicting Adolescent Bullying Behavior.

    PubMed

    Connell, Nadine M; Morris, Robert G; Piquero, Alex R

    2016-07-01

    Although there has been much interest in research on aggression and in particular bullying, a relatively less charted area of research has centered on articulating a better understanding of the mechanisms and processes by which persons are at increased risk for bullying. Furthermore, those studies that have investigated the linkages between childhood experiences and bullying perpetration have been limited with respect to definitional and operational issues, reliance on cross-sectional data, and the lack of assessing competing explanations of bullying perpetration. Using five waves of data from a community-based longitudinal sample of children followed through age 18 (N = 763), the current study examines the extent to which childhood negative life events in a variety of domains predict adolescent bullying. Results show that early childhood experiences, particularly those within the family and school domains, may alter life trajectories and can act as predictors for later adolescent bullying, thereby underscoring the potential importance that relatively minor experiences can have over the long term. Implications for future research based on these analyses are examined. PMID:25759430

  1. Immunodiagnostic Tests’ Predictive Values for Progression to Tuberculosis in Transplant Recipients

    PubMed Central

    Muñoz, Laura; Gomila, Aina; Casas, Susana; Castellote, José; Arnan, Montserrat; Rafecas, Antoni; Santin, Miguel

    2015-01-01

    Background Little is known about the predictive value for progression to tuberculosis (TB) of interferon-γ release assays and how they compare with the tuberculin skin test (TST) in assessing the risk of TB infection in transplant recipients. Methods We screened 50 liver transplant (LT) and 26 hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT) recipients with both QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-tube (QFT-GT) and TST and prospectively followed them for a median of 47 months without preventive chemoprophylaxis. Results In the LT cohort, 1 in 22 (4.5%) QFT-GT–positive patients developed posttransplant TB, compared with none of the QFT-GT–negative patients. In the HSCT cohort, none of the 7 QFT-GT–positive patients developed TB, whereas 1 case (5.3%) progressed to active TB among the 19 QFT-GT-negative patients. Comparable results were obtained with the TST: in the LT group, 1 of 23 TST-positive and none of the 27 TST-negative patients developed TB; and in the HSCT group, none of the 8 TST-positive and one of the 18 TST-negative patients progressed to active TB. Conclusions In this cohort of transplant recipients, the positive predictive value of QFT-GT for progression to active TB was low and comparable to that of TST. Although the risk of developing TB in patients with negative results at baseline is very low, some cases may still occur.

  2. Initial Value Predictability of Intrinsic Oceanic Modes and Implications for Decadal Prediction over North America

    SciTech Connect

    Branstator, Grant

    2014-12-09

    The overall aim of our project was to quantify and characterize predictability of the climate as it pertains to decadal time scale predictions. By predictability we mean the degree to which a climate forecast can be distinguished from the climate that exists at initial forecast time, taking into consideration the growth of uncertainty that occurs as a result of the climate system being chaotic. In our project we were especially interested in predictability that arises from initializing forecasts from some specific state though we also contrast this predictability with predictability arising from forecasting the reaction of the system to external forcing – for example changes in greenhouse gas concentration. Also, we put special emphasis on the predictability of prominent intrinsic patterns of the system because they often dominate system behavior. Highlights from this work include: • Development of novel methods for estimating the predictability of climate forecast models. • Quantification of the initial value predictability limits of ocean heat content and the overturning circulation in the Atlantic as they are represented in various state of the artclimate models. These limits varied substantially from model to model but on average were about a decade with North Atlantic heat content tending to be more predictable than North Pacific heat content. • Comparison of predictability resulting from knowledge of the current state of the climate system with predictability resulting from estimates of how the climate system will react to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. It turned out that knowledge of the initial state produces a larger impact on forecasts for the first 5 to 10 years of projections. • Estimation of tbe predictability of dominant patterns of ocean variability including well-known patterns of variability in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. For the most part these patterns were predictable for 5 to 10 years. • Determination of

  3. Method to predict length dependency of negative bias temperature instability degradation in p-MOSFETs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seo, Ji-Hoon; Kim, Gang-Jun; Son, Donghee; Lee, Nam-Hyun; Kang, Yongha; Kang, Bongkoo

    2016-08-01

    We propose a method to predict the length dependency of the magnitude of degradation caused by negative bias temperature instability (NBTI) stress applied to a p-MOSFET. Threshold voltage degradation ΔV th varied according to the drain bias V d, during the measurement of drain current I d. The depletion length L dep into the channel was calculated based on a particular V d value and the channel doping concentration. L dep was used to extract the channel edge region length L edge, then the center channel region length L cen was obtained by subtracting L edge from the gate length L gate. We proposed an equation that uses L dep, L cen, L edge and degree of ΔV th variation to calculate ΔV th according to L gate while the p-MOSFET is under NBTI stress. Equation estimates of ΔV th at different L gate were similar to measurements.

  4. Trait Reappraisal Predicts Affective Reactivity to Daily Positive and Negative Events

    PubMed Central

    Gunaydin, Gul; Selcuk, Emre; Ong, Anthony D.

    2016-01-01

    Past research on emotion regulation has provided evidence that cognitive reappraisal predicts reactivity to affective stimuli and challenge tests in laboratory settings. However, little is known about how trait reappraisal might contribute to affective reactivity to everyday positive and negative events. Using a large, life-span sample of adults (N = 1755), the present study addressed this important gap in the literature. Respondents completed a measure of trait reappraisal and reported on their daily experiences of positive and negative events and positive and negative affect for eight consecutive days. Results showed that trait reappraisal predicted lower increases in negative affect in response to daily negative events and lower increases in positive affect in response to daily positive events. These findings advance our understanding of the role of reappraisal in emotion regulation by showing how individual differences in the use of this strategy relate to emotional reactions to both positive and negative events outside the laboratory. PMID:27445954

  5. Predictive value of ventilatory inflection points determined under field conditions.

    PubMed

    Heyde, Christian; Mahler, Hubert; Roecker, Kai; Gollhofer, Albert

    2016-05-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive potential provided by two ventilatory inflection points (VIP1 and VIP2) examined in field without using gas analysis systems and uncomfortable facemasks. A calibrated respiratory inductance plethysmograph (RIP) and a computerised routine were utilised, respectively, to derive ventilation and to detect VIP1 and VIP2 during a standardised field ramp test on a 400 m running track on 81 participants. In addition, average running speed of a competitive 1000 m run (S1k) was observed as criterion. The predictive value of running speed at VIP1 (SVIP1) and the speed range between VIP1 and VIP2 in relation to VIP2 (VIPSPAN) was analysed via regression analysis. VIPSPAN rather than running speed at VIP2 (SVIP2) was operationalised as a predictor to consider the covariance between SVIP1 and SVIP2. SVIP1 and VIPSPAN, respectively, provided 58.9% and 22.9% of explained variance in regard to S1k. Considering covariance, the timing of two ventilatory inflection points provides predictive value in regard to a competitive 1000 m run. This is the first study to apply computerised detection of ventilatory inflection points in a field setting independent on measurements of the respiratory gas exchange and without using any facemasks. PMID:26190229

  6. Suboptimal Choice in Pigeons: Stimulus Value Predicts Choice over Frequencies.

    PubMed

    Smith, Aaron P; Bailey, Alexandria R; Chow, Jonathan J; Beckmann, Joshua S; Zentall, Thomas R

    2016-01-01

    Pigeons have shown suboptimal gambling-like behavior when preferring a stimulus that infrequently signals reliable reinforcement over alternatives that provide greater reinforcement overall. As a mechanism for this behavior, recent research proposed that the stimulus value of alternatives with more reliable signals for reinforcement will be preferred relatively independently of their frequencies. The present study tested this hypothesis using a simplified design of a Discriminative alternative that, 50% of the time, led to either a signal for 100% reinforcement or a blackout period indicative of 0% reinforcement against a Nondiscriminative alternative that always led to a signal that predicted 50% reinforcement. Pigeons showed a strong preference for the Discriminative alternative that remained despite reducing the frequency of the signal for reinforcement in subsequent phases to 25% and then 12.5%. In Experiment 2, using the original design of Experiment 1, the stimulus following choice of the Nondiscriminative alternative was increased to 75% and then to 100%. Results showed that preference for the Discriminative alternative decreased only when the signals for reinforcement for the two alternatives predicted the same probability of reinforcement. The ability of several models to predict this behavior are discussed, but the terminal link stimulus value offers the most parsimonious account of this suboptimal behavior. PMID:27441394

  7. Suboptimal Choice in Pigeons: Stimulus Value Predicts Choice over Frequencies

    PubMed Central

    Bailey, Alexandria R.; Chow, Jonathan J.; Beckmann, Joshua S.; Zentall, Thomas R.

    2016-01-01

    Pigeons have shown suboptimal gambling-like behavior when preferring a stimulus that infrequently signals reliable reinforcement over alternatives that provide greater reinforcement overall. As a mechanism for this behavior, recent research proposed that the stimulus value of alternatives with more reliable signals for reinforcement will be preferred relatively independently of their frequencies. The present study tested this hypothesis using a simplified design of a Discriminative alternative that, 50% of the time, led to either a signal for 100% reinforcement or a blackout period indicative of 0% reinforcement against a Nondiscriminative alternative that always led to a signal that predicted 50% reinforcement. Pigeons showed a strong preference for the Discriminative alternative that remained despite reducing the frequency of the signal for reinforcement in subsequent phases to 25% and then 12.5%. In Experiment 2, using the original design of Experiment 1, the stimulus following choice of the Nondiscriminative alternative was increased to 75% and then to 100%. Results showed that preference for the Discriminative alternative decreased only when the signals for reinforcement for the two alternatives predicted the same probability of reinforcement. The ability of several models to predict this behavior are discussed, but the terminal link stimulus value offers the most parsimonious account of this suboptimal behavior. PMID:27441394

  8. Expectation Value Theorem for Thermo Vacuum States of Optical Chaotic Field and Negative-Binomial Field

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wan, Zhi-Long; Fan, Hong-Yi

    2016-02-01

    For the density operator (mixed state) describing chaotic light and negative-binomial field there exist the corresponding thermal vacuum state (pure state) in the real-fictitious space. Using the method of integration within ordered product of operators we find the expectation value theorem in these two thermo vacuum states respectively. The thermal average theorem of translation operator is also deduced. Application of the new thermo vacuum state in calculating photon number disturibution and fluctuation and thermal average is presented.

  9. Expectation Value Theorem for Thermo Vacuum States of Optical Chaotic Field and Negative-Binomial Field

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wan, Zhi-Long; Fan, Hong-Yi

    2016-07-01

    For the density operator (mixed state) describing chaotic light and negative-binomial field there exist the corresponding thermal vacuum state (pure state) in the real-fictitious space. Using the method of integration within ordered product of operators we find the expectation value theorem in these two thermo vacuum states respectively. The thermal average theorem of translation operator is also deduced. Application of the new thermo vacuum state in calculating photon number disturibution and fluctuation and thermal average is presented.

  10. Thrombin time and anti-IIa dabigatran's activity: hypothesis of thrombin time's predictive value.

    PubMed

    Le Guyader, Maïlys; Kaabar, Mohammed; Lemaire, Pierre; Pineau Vincent, Fabienne

    2015-01-01

    Dabigatran etexilate (Pradaxa®) is a new oral anticoagulant, competitive inhibitor, selective, fast, direct and reversible of thrombin. Dabigatran has an impact on a large panel of used coagulation tests. There is no relationship between thrombin time's lengthening and anti-IIa activity. This study defines thrombin time's predictive value, when its time is normal. The result of negative value is 97,6%. 255 patients were studied between January 2013 and July 2014. Thrombin time and anti-IIa activity were dosed for each patient. This study can be an assistant for therapeutic decision for laboratories without specialized test. PMID:26489812

  11. Monoamine Oxidase A (MAOA) Genotype Predicts Greater Aggression Through Impulsive Reactivity to Negative Affect

    PubMed Central

    Chester, David S.; DeWall, C. Nathan; Derefinko, Karen J.; Estus, Steven; Peters, Jessica R.; Lynam, Donald R.; Jiang, Yang

    2015-01-01

    Low functioning MAOA genotypes have been reliably linked to increased reactive aggression, yet the psychological mechanisms of this effect remain largely unknown. The low functioning MAOA genotype’s established link to diminished inhibition and greater reactivity to conditions of negative affect suggest that negative urgency, the tendency to act impulsively in the context of negative affect, may fill this mediating role. Such MAOA carriers may have higher negative urgency, which may in turn predict greater aggressive responses to provocation. To test these hypotheses, 277 female and male participants were genotyped for an MAOA SNP yet to be linked to aggression (rs1465108), and then reported their negative urgency and past aggressive behavior. We replicated the effect of the low functioning MAOA genotype on heightened aggression, which was mediated by greater negative urgency. These results suggest that disrupted serotonergic systems predispose individuals towards aggressive behavior by increasing impulsive reactivity to negative affect. PMID:25637908

  12. [NIRS for Predicting Nutritive Value of Elymus sibiricus].

    PubMed

    Yan, Xu; Bai, Shi-qie; Yan, Jia-jun; Hu, Chao; Li, Da-xu; You, Ming-hong; Zhang, Yu; Dao, Zhi-xue; Zhang, Chang-bing; Gan, You-min

    2015-08-01

    Siberian wildrye (Elymus sibiricus L.) is one of the predominant pasture species in Qinghai-Tibet plateau of China. It supplies a large number of fodders to domestic animals in spring and winter, and provides a large proportion of the summer and autumn grazing in these alpine regions. Crude protein (CP), acid detergent fiber (ADF), neutral detergent fiber (NDF) and in vitro dry matter digestibility (IVDMD) are the most important aspects of nutritive value of forages. A successful application of near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) in combination with partial least square regression (PLSR) for the determination of four parameters (CP, ADF, NDF and IVDMD) of Siberian wildrye was developed. The standard errors of calibration (SEC, %DM) and Rcal(2) values (in parentheses) were 0.3299(0.9945), 0.7799(0.9499), 1.3430(0.9133), and 1.3762(0.9822) for CP, ADF, NDF and IVDMD equations, respectively. The standard errors of prediction (SEP, %DM) and Rval(2) values (in parentheses) were 0.3621(0.9938), 0.7878(0.9449), 1.3852(0.8907), and 1.4303(0.9790) for CP, ADF, NDF and IVDMD, respectively. A good correlation (r>0.9438) was found between results from NIRS and the traditional chemical method, and residual predictive deviation (RPD) ranged from 3.02 to 12.63. It was concluded that NIR spectroscopic technique associated with chemometrics is sufficiently sensitive to allow the accurate prediction of the concentrations of compo nents (CP, ADF and NDF) and IVDMD of Siberian wildrye. PMID:26672275

  13. Improving compound–protein interaction prediction by building up highly credible negative samples

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Hui; Sun, Jianjiang; Guan, Jihong; Zheng, Jie; Zhou, Shuigeng

    2015-01-01

    Motivation: Computational prediction of compound–protein interactions (CPIs) is of great importance for drug design and development, as genome-scale experimental validation of CPIs is not only time-consuming but also prohibitively expensive. With the availability of an increasing number of validated interactions, the performance of computational prediction approaches is severely impended by the lack of reliable negative CPI samples. A systematic method of screening reliable negative sample becomes critical to improving the performance of in silico prediction methods. Results: This article aims at building up a set of highly credible negative samples of CPIs via an in silico screening method. As most existing computational models assume that similar compounds are likely to interact with similar target proteins and achieve remarkable performance, it is rational to identify potential negative samples based on the converse negative proposition that the proteins dissimilar to every known/predicted target of a compound are not much likely to be targeted by the compound and vice versa. We integrated various resources, including chemical structures, chemical expression profiles and side effects of compounds, amino acid sequences, protein–protein interaction network and functional annotations of proteins, into a systematic screening framework. We first tested the screened negative samples on six classical classifiers, and all these classifiers achieved remarkably higher performance on our negative samples than on randomly generated negative samples for both human and Caenorhabditis elegans. We then verified the negative samples on three existing prediction models, including bipartite local model, Gaussian kernel profile and Bayesian matrix factorization, and found that the performances of these models are also significantly improved on the screened negative samples. Moreover, we validated the screened negative samples on a drug bioactivity dataset. Finally, we derived

  14. The interplay of personality and negative comments about appearance in predicting body image.

    PubMed

    Kvalem, Ingela Lundin; von Soest, Tilmann; Roald, Helge E; Skolleborg, Knut Chr

    2006-09-01

    This study investigates how personality traits in combination with frequency of and emotional reaction to negative comments about appearance while growing up are related to appearance evaluation and orientation among adult women. Nine hundred and seven participants from a representative sample of Norwegian women aged 22-55, answered questions measuring body image, personality (Big Five), and history of experiencing negative comments about appearance. Results indicated that only emotional reaction to negative comments about appearance significantly predicted both appearance evaluation and orientation, while frequency of negative comments did not. Being extrovert predicted more positive appearance evaluation and being more appearance oriented than being introvert. Scoring high on neuroticism was related to negative appearance evaluation and high appearance orientation. The findings demonstrate the importance of differentiating between the frequency and the emotional impact of teasing as well as including personality traits when studying body image. PMID:18089229

  15. Predicting Negative Emotions Based on Mobile Phone Usage Patterns: An Exploratory Study

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Pei-Ching; Chang, Chia-Chi; Chiang, Jung-Hsien; Chen, Ying-Yeh

    2016-01-01

    Background Prompt recognition and intervention of negative emotions is crucial for patients with depression. Mobile phones and mobile apps are suitable technologies that can be used to recognize negative emotions and intervene if necessary. Objective Mobile phone usage patterns can be associated with concurrent emotional states. The objective of this study is to adapt machine-learning methods to analyze such patterns for the prediction of negative emotion. Methods We developed an Android-based app to capture emotional states and mobile phone usage patterns, which included call logs (and use of apps). Visual analog scales (VASs) were used to report negative emotions in dimensions of depression, anxiety, and stress. In the system-training phase, participants were requested to tag their emotions for 14 consecutive days. Five feature-selection methods were used to determine individual usage patterns and four machine-learning methods were tested. Finally, rank product scoring was used to select the best combination to construct the prediction model. In the system evaluation phase, participants were then requested to verify the predicted negative emotions for at least 5 days. Results Out of 40 enrolled healthy participants, we analyzed data from 28 participants, including 30% (9/28) women with a mean (SD) age of 29.2 (5.1) years with sufficient emotion tags. The combination of time slots of 2 hours, greedy forward selection, and Naïve Bayes method was chosen for the prediction model. We further validated the personalized models in 18 participants who performed at least 5 days of model evaluation. Overall, the predictive accuracy for negative emotions was 86.17%. Conclusion We developed a system capable of predicting negative emotions based on mobile phone usage patterns. This system has potential for ecological momentary intervention (EMI) for depressive disorders by automatically recognizing negative emotions and providing people with preventive treatments before it

  16. Negative Emotions Predict Elevated Interleukin-6 in the United States but not in Japan

    PubMed Central

    Miyamoto, Yuri; Boylan, Jennifer Morozink; Coe, Christopher L.; Curhan, Katherine B.; Levine, Cynthia S.; Markus, Hazel Rose; Park, Jiyoung; Kitayama, Shinobu; Kawakami, Norito; Karasawa, Mayumi; Love, Gayle D.; Ryff, Carol D.

    2013-01-01

    Previous studies conducted in Western cultures have shown that negative emotions predict higher levels of pro-inflammatory biomarkers, specifically interleukin-6 (IL-6). This link between negative emotions and IL-6 may be specific to Western cultures where negative emotions are perceived to be problematic and thus may not extend to Eastern cultures where negative emotions are seen as acceptable and normal. Using samples of 1044 American and 382 Japanese middle-aged and older adults, we investigated whether the relationship between negative emotions and IL-6 varies by cultural context. Negative emotions predicted higher IL-6 among American adults, whereas no association was evident among Japanese adults. Furthermore, the interaction between culture and negative emotions remained even after controlling for demographic variables, psychological factors (positive emotions, neuroticism, extraversion), health behaviors (smoking status, alcohol consumption), and health status (chronic conditions, BMI). These findings highlight the role of cultural context in shaping how negative emotions affect inflammatory physiology and underscore the importance of cultural ideas and practices relevant to negative emotions for understanding of the interplay between psychology, physiology, and health. PMID:23911591

  17. Seizure Prediction and Detection via Phase and Amplitude Lock Values.

    PubMed

    Myers, Mark H; Padmanabha, Akshay; Hossain, Gahangir; de Jongh Curry, Amy L; Blaha, Charles D

    2016-01-01

    A robust seizure prediction methodology would enable a "closed-loop" system that would only activate as impending seizure activity is detected. Such a system would eliminate ongoing stimulation to the brain, thereby eliminating such side effects as coughing, hoarseness, voice alteration, and paresthesias (Murphy et al., 1998; Ben-Menachem, 2001), while preserving overall battery life of the system. The seizure prediction and detection algorithm uses Phase/Amplitude Lock Values (PLV/ALV) which calculate the difference of phase and amplitude between electroencephalogram (EEG) electrodes local and remote to the epileptic event. PLV is used as the seizure prediction marker and signifies the emergence of abnormal neuronal activations through local neuron populations. PLV/ALVs are used as seizure detection markers to demarcate the seizure event, or when the local seizure event has propagated throughout the brain turning into a grand-mal event. We verify the performance of this methodology against the "CHB-MIT Scalp EEG Database" which features seizure attributes for testing. Through this testing, we can demonstrate a high degree of sensivity and precision of our methodology between pre-ictal and ictal events. PMID:27014017

  18. Seizure Prediction and Detection via Phase and Amplitude Lock Values

    PubMed Central

    Myers, Mark H.; Padmanabha, Akshay; Hossain, Gahangir; de Jongh Curry, Amy L.; Blaha, Charles D.

    2016-01-01

    A robust seizure prediction methodology would enable a “closed-loop” system that would only activate as impending seizure activity is detected. Such a system would eliminate ongoing stimulation to the brain, thereby eliminating such side effects as coughing, hoarseness, voice alteration, and paresthesias (Murphy et al., 1998; Ben-Menachem, 2001), while preserving overall battery life of the system. The seizure prediction and detection algorithm uses Phase/Amplitude Lock Values (PLV/ALV) which calculate the difference of phase and amplitude between electroencephalogram (EEG) electrodes local and remote to the epileptic event. PLV is used as the seizure prediction marker and signifies the emergence of abnormal neuronal activations through local neuron populations. PLV/ALVs are used as seizure detection markers to demarcate the seizure event, or when the local seizure event has propagated throughout the brain turning into a grand-mal event. We verify the performance of this methodology against the “CHB-MIT Scalp EEG Database” which features seizure attributes for testing. Through this testing, we can demonstrate a high degree of sensivity and precision of our methodology between pre-ictal and ictal events. PMID:27014017

  19. Predictive value of robotic-assisted total hip arthroplasty.

    PubMed

    El Bitar, Youssef F; Jackson, Timothy J; Lindner, Dror; Botser, Itamar B; Stake, Christine E; Domb, Benjamin G

    2015-01-01

    Acetabular cup positioning, leg-length discrepancy, and global offset are important parameters associated with outcomes following total hip arthroplasty (THA). Deviation from an accepted range of values can lead to significant complications, including dislocation, leg-length discrepancy, impingement, accelerated bearing surface wear, and revisions. The purpose of this study was to assess whether robotic-assisted THA was reliable in predicting radiographic measurements of cup inclination and anteversion, leg-length change, and global offset change. All 61 robotic-assisted THAs that met the inclusion and exclusion criteria were performed by a single surgeon through a mini-posterior approach. Data provided by the robot were collected prospectively, and radiographic data were collected retrospectively by 2 blinded independent reviewers. The cohort in this study consisted of 27 male and 34 female patients, with an average age of 60.5 years. A strong inter- and intraobserver correlation was found for the radiographic measurements of cup inclination, cup anteversion, leg-length discrepancy, and global offset (r>0.8 with P<.001 for all). Ninety-six point seven percent of robotic-measured inclination angles and 98.4% of robotic-measured anteversion angles were within 10° of radiographic measurements. One hundred percent of robotic-measured leg-length change and 91.8% of robotic-measured global offset change were within 10 mm of radiographic measurements. Robotic-assisted THA showed good predictive value for cup inclination and anteversion angles and measurements of leg-length change and global offset change done postoperatively on plain radiographs. Further refinement of the robotic system would make it more accurate in predicting the postoperative parameters mentioned. PMID:25611417

  20. Predictive value of ceruloplasmin for metabolic syndrome in adolescents.

    PubMed

    González-Jiménez, Emilio; Schmidt-Riovalle, Jacqueline; Sinausía, Laura; Carmen Valenza, Maríe; Perona, Javier S

    2016-01-01

    The metabolic syndrome (MetS) is precisely defined and the cardiovascular risk associated with the clustering of its components has been demonstrated in adults. However, data on children and adolescents are still scarce, in part, because of difficulties in transposing the definition from adults. The identification of risk factors for the development of MetS at an early age is essential for prevention purposes with low-grade inflammation acting as a determinant for the association among the MetS components. The aim of this study was to investigate the associations of the MetS with systemic markers of inflammation and ceruloplasmin in a population of adolescents. The present is a cross-sectional study whose sample population consisted of 976 adolescents, 13.2 ± 1.2 years of age. Interleukin-6 (IL-6) and tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) were determined by ELISA. High-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) was determined by a solid-phase chemiluminiscent immunometric assay. Ceruloplasmin was measured by immunoturbidimetry. MetS adolescents exhibited higher levels of TNF-α, IL-6, CRP, and ceruloplasmin compared to non-MetS individuals. TNF-α, IL-6, and CRP showed strong correlations with the MetS components and insulin resistance but not relevant predictive values according to ROC curves (AUC values 0.544- 0.555). In contrast, ceruloplasmin only showed significant correlations in non-Mets individuals, but exhibited a very high predictive value (AUC=0.941, P < 0.001). The determination of serum ceruloplasmin in adolescents might be a useful tool to identify patients with the highest risk of future cardiovascular disease. © 2016 BioFactors, 42(2):163-170, 2016. PMID:27083758

  1. External validation of a prediction model for pathologic N2 among patients with a negative mediastinum by positron emission tomography

    PubMed Central

    Backhus, Leah M.; Varghese, Thomas K.; Manning, James P.; Cheng, Aaron M.; Mulligan, Michael S.; Wood, Douglas E.

    2015-01-01

    Background A prediction model for pathologic N2 (pN2) among lung cancer patients with a negative mediastinum by positron emission tomography (PET) was recently internally validated. Our study sought to determine the external validity of that model. Methods A cohort study [2005-2013] was performed of lung cancer patients with a negative mediastinum by PET. Previously published model coefficients were used to estimate the probability of pN2 based on tumor location and size, nodal enlargement by computed tomography (CT), maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax) of the primary tumor, N1 disease by PET, and pretreatment histology. Results Among 239 patients, 18 had pN2 [7.5%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 4.5-12%]. Model discrimination was excellent (c-statistic 0.80, 95% CI: 0.75-0.85) and the model fit the data well (P=0.191). The accuracy of the model was as follows: sensitivity 100%, 95% CI: 81-100%; specificity 49%, 95% CI: 42-56%; positive predictive value (PPV) 14%, 95% CI: 8-21%, and negative predictive value (NPV) 100%, 95% CI: 97-100%. CI inspection revealed a significantly higher c-statistic in this external validation cohort compared to the internal validation cohort. The model’s apparently poor specificity for patient selection is in fact significantly better than usual care (i.e., aggressive but allowable guideline concordant staging) and minimum guideline mandated selection criteria for invasive staging. Conclusions A prediction model for pN2 is externally valid. The high NPV of this model may allow pulmonologists and thoracic surgeons to more comfortably minimize the number of invasive procedures performed among patients with a negative mediastinum by PET. PMID:25973222

  2. Negative example selection for protein function prediction: the NoGO database.

    PubMed

    Youngs, Noah; Penfold-Brown, Duncan; Bonneau, Richard; Shasha, Dennis

    2014-06-01

    Negative examples - genes that are known not to carry out a given protein function - are rarely recorded in genome and proteome annotation databases, such as the Gene Ontology database. Negative examples are required, however, for several of the most powerful machine learning methods for integrative protein function prediction. Most protein function prediction efforts have relied on a variety of heuristics for the choice of negative examples. Determining the accuracy of methods for negative example prediction is itself a non-trivial task, given that the Open World Assumption as applied to gene annotations rules out many traditional validation metrics. We present a rigorous comparison of these heuristics, utilizing a temporal holdout, and a novel evaluation strategy for negative examples. We add to this comparison several algorithms adapted from Positive-Unlabeled learning scenarios in text-classification, which are the current state of the art methods for generating negative examples in low-density annotation contexts. Lastly, we present two novel algorithms of our own construction, one based on empirical conditional probability, and the other using topic modeling applied to genes and annotations. We demonstrate that our algorithms achieve significantly fewer incorrect negative example predictions than the current state of the art, using multiple benchmarks covering multiple organisms. Our methods may be applied to generate negative examples for any type of method that deals with protein function, and to this end we provide a database of negative examples in several well-studied organisms, for general use (The NoGO database, available at: bonneaulab.bio.nyu.edu/nogo.html). PMID:24922051

  3. Negative Example Selection for Protein Function Prediction: The NoGO Database

    PubMed Central

    Youngs, Noah; Penfold-Brown, Duncan; Bonneau, Richard; Shasha, Dennis

    2014-01-01

    Negative examples – genes that are known not to carry out a given protein function – are rarely recorded in genome and proteome annotation databases, such as the Gene Ontology database. Negative examples are required, however, for several of the most powerful machine learning methods for integrative protein function prediction. Most protein function prediction efforts have relied on a variety of heuristics for the choice of negative examples. Determining the accuracy of methods for negative example prediction is itself a non-trivial task, given that the Open World Assumption as applied to gene annotations rules out many traditional validation metrics. We present a rigorous comparison of these heuristics, utilizing a temporal holdout, and a novel evaluation strategy for negative examples. We add to this comparison several algorithms adapted from Positive-Unlabeled learning scenarios in text-classification, which are the current state of the art methods for generating negative examples in low-density annotation contexts. Lastly, we present two novel algorithms of our own construction, one based on empirical conditional probability, and the other using topic modeling applied to genes and annotations. We demonstrate that our algorithms achieve significantly fewer incorrect negative example predictions than the current state of the art, using multiple benchmarks covering multiple organisms. Our methods may be applied to generate negative examples for any type of method that deals with protein function, and to this end we provide a database of negative examples in several well-studied organisms, for general use (The NoGO database, available at: bonneaulab.bio.nyu.edu/nogo.html). PMID:24922051

  4. Estimating the predictive value of the Test of Memory Malingering: an illustrative example for clinicians.

    PubMed

    O'Bryant, Sid E; Lucas, John A

    2006-09-01

    Recent years have witnessed an explosion in the amount of research literature dedicated to the identification of symptom exaggeration and/or malingering in neuropsychological assessments. Additionally, there is now a growing literature devoted to estimating the base rates of symptom exaggeration/malingering in a range of populations and settings. However, very little literature has been devoted to estimating the positive predictive value (PPV) or negative predictive value (NPV) of these assessment devices and/or strategies. The current project was conducted to provide an illustrative example of how to use the research literature to calculate both PPV and NPV in everyday clinical practice. When the Word Memory Test (WMT) was used as the "gold standard" to which the Test of Memory Malingering (TOMM) was compared, the TOMM achieved very high PPV (.98) and acceptable NPV (.78). How to incorporate the strategy used into clinical practice is discussed. PMID:16895864

  5. Doing Gender for Different Reasons: Why Gender Conformity Positively and Negatively Predicts Self-Esteem

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Good, Jessica J.; Sanchez, Diana T.

    2010-01-01

    Past research has shown that valuing gender conformity is associated with both positive and negative consequences for self-esteem and positive affect. The current research (women, n= 226; men, n= 175) explored these conflicting findings by separating out investing in societal gender ideals from personally valuing one's gender identity ("private…

  6. Predictive Values of Optical Coherence Tomography (OCT) Parameters in Assessment of Glaucoma progression

    PubMed Central

    Kasumovic, Sanja Sefic; Kasumovic, Aida; Pavljasevic, Suzana; Cabric, Emir; Mavija, Milka; Sesar, Irena; Lepara, Sabina Dacić-; Jankov, Mirko

    2014-01-01

    SUMMARY Goal: the purpose of the current study was to estimate the predictive values of optical coherence tomography parameters in early, developed perimetric and terminal glaucoma. Methods: 180 eyes of 120 consecutive patients were evaluated in this retrospective cross sectional pilot study. Copernicus Spectral –domain optical coherence tomography with resolution of 3 mm obtained throught the optic nerve head were included. All examined eyes were divided to four groups (healthy,early, developed perimetric glaucoma and terminal glaucoma). The values of the thicknes of the retinal nerve fibre layer, the size of the disk, the volume of the cup, the E/D parameter and the size of the RIM were compared in four study groups. Results: The sensitivity of RNFL was 90,0%, specificity 82,0 %, positive predictability 83,3 % and negative predictability was 89,1 %. The total accuracy was 86,0 % and area under curve (AUC) was 0,878 for RNFL indeks compering early to developed glaucoma. The sensitivity for CUP was 78%, the specificity was 80,8 %, the positive predictability 81,2% and the negative predictability was 77,5 %. The total accuracy was 79,3 % and area under curve (AUC) was 0,86 compering early to developed glaucoma. The sensitivity for E/D was 82,0%, the specificity was 82,9 % the positive predictability 83,7 % and the negative predictability was 81,3 %. The total accuracy was 82,5 % and area under curve (AUC) for E/D was 0,89 compering eearly to developed glaucoma. The sensitivity for RIM was 78,0%, the specificity was 76,6 %, the positive predictability was 84,7 and the negative predictability was 67,7 %. The total accuracy was 77,5 % and area under curve (AUC) for the RIM compering the developed to terminal glaucoma was 0,792. The sensitivity of RNFL was 88,0 %, the specificity was 66,7 %, the positive predictability was 81,5% and the negative predictability was 76,9%. The total accuracy was 80,0% and the area under curve (AUC) for RNFL compering developed to

  7. Residential property values predict prevalent obesity but do not predict 1 year weight change

    PubMed Central

    Drewnowski, Adam; Aggarwal, Anju; Tang, Wesley; Moudon, Anne Vernez

    2014-01-01

    Objective Lower socioeconomic status (SES) has been linked with higher obesity rates but not with weight gain. This study examined whether SES can predict short-term weight change. Design and Methods The Seattle Obesity Study II was based on an observational cohort of 440 adults. Weights and heights were measured at baseline and at 1 y. Self-reported education and incomes were obtained by questionnaire. Home addresses were linked to tax parcel property values from the King Co. tax assessor. Associations among SES variables, prevalent obesity, and 1 y weight change were examined using multivariable linear regressions. Results Low residential property values at tax parcel predicted prevalent obesity at baseline and at 1 y. Living in the top quartile of house prices reduced obesity risk by 80% at both time points. At 1 year, about 38% of the sample lost >1kg body weight; 32% maintained (± 1kg), and 30% gained >1kg. In adjusted models, none of the baseline SES measures had any impact on 1 y weight change. Conclusions SES variables, including tax parcel property values predicted prevalent obesity but did not predict short-term weight change. These findings, based on longitudinal cohort data, suggest other mechanisms are involved in short-term weight change. PMID:25684713

  8. The value of "negative" appraisals for resilience. Is positive (re)appraisal always good and negative always bad?

    PubMed

    Freund, Alexandra M; Staudinger, Ursula M

    2015-01-01

    In contrast to the PASTOR model by Kalisch et al. we point to the potential negative long-term effects of positive (re)appraisals of events for resilience. This perspective posits that emotional reactions to events provide important guidelines as to which events, environments, or social relations should be sought out and which ones should be avoided in the future. PMID:26785853

  9. Predictive value of topoisomerase IIα immunostaining in urothelial bladder carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Nakopoulou, L; Zervas, A; Lazaris, A; Constantinides, C; Stravodimos, C; Davaris, P; Dimopoulos, C

    2001-01-01

    Aims—The nuclear enzyme DNA topoisomerase II has been shown to be required for chromatin condensation and chromosomal segregation during mitosis; its isoform topo IIα is linked with active cell proliferation in mammalian cells. The aim of this study was to examine the relation of the expression of topo IIα to the biological behaviour of conventional urinary bladder cancer. Methods—Formalin fixed, paraffin wax embedded tissue from 94 specimens of bladder urothelial cancer were immunohistochemically stained for topo IIα. For each case, a topo IIα index was determined. A similar index had been determined for Ki-67, a known cell proliferation marker. Each case had also been graded, staged, and evaluated for DNA ploidy as well as for p53 and bcl-2 immunoreactivity. Results—Raised topo IIα expression (in ≥ 10% of malignant nuclei) correlated with two adverse prognosticators—high grade (p = 0.027) and invasion of the muscularis propria (p = 0.013), but with no other evaluated parameter. By multivariate survival analysis using Cox's proportional hazard model, high expression of topo IIα was found to be predictive for worse survival (p = 0.0047). Patients' age, tumour stage, and grade were also retained as independent prognostic factors (p = 0.0349, p = 0.00005, and p = 0.0130, respectively). The negative influence of increased topo IIα immunopositivity on patients' survival was also seen in the subgroup of patients with non-muscle invasive carcinomas (p = 0.0004), in patients with a bcl-2 negative phenotype (p = 0.0330), and in those with low Ki-67 indices (p = 0.0341). Conclusions—Because topo IIα and Ki-67 failed to demonstrate a significant inter-relation, they appear to be different molecules that both function at separate phases in the complex process of cellular proliferation. The assessment of increased topo IIα immunoreactivity in specimens from urothelial carcinomas might help to select patients (particularly among those with superficial

  10. Why do oceanic negative cloud-to-ground lightning exhibit larger peak current values?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chronis, T.; Koshak, W.; McCaul, E.

    2016-04-01

    This study examines the temporal (monthly) and spatial climatology (2004-2010) of the first return stroke of the cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning flash peak current (Ip) across various land/water boundaries over the contiguous United States. Four regions are examined: the Gulf of Mexico (region 1), the Florida peninsula (region 2), Lake Michigan (region 3), and part of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic (region 4). The crosss across the coastlines of regions 1, 2, and 4 show a gradual oceanward increase in the mean negative polarity CG peak current values (-Ip). This transition along the respective land/ocean boundaries is not sharp but gradual. In direct contrast with ocean, there is no consistent behavior in -Ip values as we move from land out across the fresh water of Lake Michigan (region 3). Meanwhile, the positive CG flash peak current (+Ip) values do not exhibit a consistent variation across any coastal boundary. For region 1, the -Ip values increase as we move toward the coast (southwards) especially during the wet season (June-October). This finding is in direct contrast with studies that documented winter as the season of maximum -Ip values. The zonal and seasonal variations of -Ip values across region 4 are not quite as pronounced, but the oceanic -Ip values are still larger than over the adjoining landmass. We explore in turn which up to date hypotheses pertinent to the oceanic -Ip enhancement are supported or refuted by our findings. It is concluded that the oceanic -Ip enhancement is not an artifact related to CG detection or Ip retrieval methods, nor is it likely related to the cloud top heights or CG activity. The study cannot refute the role of electrical conductivity and its contribution to CG leader attachment processes. However, given the observed "blurred transition" of the Ip values across the coastlines this paper suggests that likely the main physical mechanism is acting on the thundercloud potential. The recently suggested role of sodium chloride (Na

  11. Toddlers' Empathy-Related Responding to Distress: Predictions from Negative Emotionality and Maternal Behavior in Infancy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Spinrad, Tracy L.; Stifter, Cynthia A.

    2006-01-01

    This study focused on the predictive contributions of infants' temperamental negative emotionality (proneness to fear, anger), sex, maternal responsivity, and their interaction on toddlers' empathy-related responding to distress in 3 contexts. Ninety-eight infants and their mothers participated in a longitudinal study. When the infants were 10…

  12. Negative Affective Spillover from Daily Events Predicts Early Response to Cognitive Therapy for Depression

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cohen, Lawrence H.; Gunthert, Kathleen C.; Butler, Andrew C.; Parrish, Brendt P.; Wenze, Susan J.; Beck, Judith S.

    2008-01-01

    This study evaluated the predictive role of depressed outpatients' (N = 62) affective reactivity to daily stressors in their rates of improvement in cognitive therapy (CT). For 1 week before treatment, patients completed nightly electronic diaries that assessed daily stressors and negative affect (NA). The authors used multilevel modeling to…

  13. Positive and negative family emotional climate differentially predict youth anxiety and depression via distinct affective pathways.

    PubMed

    Luebbe, Aaron M; Bell, Debora J

    2014-08-01

    A socioaffective specificity model was tested in which positive and negative affect differentially mediated relations of family emotional climate to youth internalizing symptoms. Participants were 134 7(th)-9(th) grade adolescents (65 girls; 86 % Caucasian) and mothers who completed measures of emotion-related family processes, experienced affect, anxiety, and depression. Results suggested that a family environment characterized by maternal psychological control and family negative emotion expressiveness predicted greater anxiety and depression, and was mediated by experienced negative affect. Conversely, a family emotional environment characterized by low maternal warmth and low positive emotion expressiveness predicted only depression, and was mediated through lowered experienced positive affect. This study synthesizes a theoretical model of typical family emotion socialization with an extant affect-based model of shared and unique aspects of anxiety and depression symptom expression. PMID:24356797

  14. Predictive Value of Auricular Diagnosis on Coronary Heart Disease

    PubMed Central

    Kwai-Ping Suen, Lorna; Lau, Yuk-kong; Ma, Hok-cheung; Lai, Kam-wai; Holroyd, Eleanor

    2012-01-01

    The ear has a reflexive property; therefore, various physical attributes may appear on the auricle when disorders of the internal organs or other parts of the body exist. Auricular diagnostics is an objective, painless, and noninvasive method that provides rapid access to information. Thus, the association between auricular signals and coronary heart disease (CHD) should be further investigated. A case control study was conducted to determine the predictive value of auricular signals on 100 cases of CHD (CHD+ve = 50; CHD−ve = 50) via visual inspection, electrical skin resistance measurement, and tenderness testing. The results showed that the presence of an ear lobe crease (ELC) was significantly associated with coronary heart disease. The “heart” zone of the CHD+ve group significantly exhibited higher conductivity on both ears than that of the controls. The CHD+ve group experienced significant tenderness in the “heart” region compared with those in the CHD−ve group in both acute and chronic conditions. Further studies that take into consideration the impact of age, race, and earlobe shape on ELC prevalence in a larger sample should be done. PMID:23326290

  15. No added value of interferon-γ release to a prediction model for childhood tuberculosis.

    PubMed

    Togun, Toyin O; Egere, Uzochukwu; Gomez, Marie P; Sillah, Abdou K; Daramy, Mohammed; Tientcheu, Leopold D; S Sutherland, Jayne; Hill, Philip C; Kampmann, Beate

    2016-01-01

    The predictive value of a combination of clinical and radiological features with interferon-γ release assay (IGRA) for diagnosis of active tuberculosis (TB) disease among TB-exposed children is unknown.150 symptomatic HIV-negative children (aged 3 months to 14 years), prospectively recruited through active contact tracing, were included. Backward stepwise logistic regression and bootstrapping techniques were used for the development and internal validation of a clinical prediction model for active TB disease. Model discrimination and incremental value of a positive IGRA test were assessed by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).35 (23%) children were diagnosed with active TB disease and started on treatment and 115 (77%) had other respiratory tract infections. A final parsimonious clinical model, comprising age <5 years (adjusted (a)OR 4.8, 95% CI 2.0-11.5) and lymphadenopathy on clinical examination (aOR 4.9, 95% CI 1.8-13.0) discriminated active TB disease from other disease with an AUC of 0.70 (95% CI 0.61-0.80). A positive IGRA result did not improve the discriminatory ability of the clinical model (c-statistic 0.72 versus 0.70; p=0.644).A clinical algorithm, including age <5 years and lymphadenopathy classified 70% of active TB disease among symptomatic TB-exposed children. IGRA does not add any discriminatory value to this prediction model. PMID:26493802

  16. Interaction of noradrenaline and cortisol predicts negative intrusive memories in posttraumatic stress disorder.

    PubMed

    Nicholson, Emma L; Bryant, Richard A; Felmingham, Kim L

    2014-07-01

    Recent evidence suggests that an interaction of noradrenaline (NE) and cortisol (CORT) during encoding leads to greater consolidation of emotional memories. Convergent models of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) suggest the release of CORT and NE lead to greater intrusive memories in PTSD. This study examined the effect of NE and CORT during encoding on recall and intrusive memories in PTSD. Fifty-eight participants (18 participants with PTSD, 20 trauma-exposed controls, and 20 non-trauma exposed controls) provided saliva samples of NE (indexed by salivary alpha amylase; sAA) and CORT at (a) baseline and (b) after viewing negative emotional stimuli. Delayed memory recall and number of intrusive memories of negative, neutral and positive stimuli were recorded two days after this initial testing session. The PTSD group had greater NE levels to negative stimuli and reported greater numbers of intrusive memories of negative stimuli than controls. Regression analyses revealed that the interaction of CORT and NE significantly predicted negative intrusive memories in the PTSD group. The trauma-exposed group reported significantly greater recall of negative images compared to controls, but did not differ significantly from the PTSD group. The PTSD group reported greater levels of suppression of negative images during encoding compared to the other groups. Our results confirm that the interaction of NE and CORT significantly predicts greater negative intrusive memories, but this occurs specifically in the PTSD group. This suggests that a level of heightened arousal is required for the relationship between stress hormones and emotional memory to manifest in PTSD. PMID:24296460

  17. Cultural Values Predicting Acculturation Orientations: Operationalizing a Quantitative Measure

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ehala, Martin

    2012-01-01

    This article proposes that acculturation orientations are related to two sets of cultural values: utilitarianism (Ut) and traditionalism (Tr). While utilitarian values enhance assimilation, traditional values support language and identity maintenance. It is proposed that the propensity to either end of this value opposition can be measured by an…

  18. A Values-Affirmation Intervention Does Not Benefit Negatively Stereotyped Immigrant Students in the Netherlands.

    PubMed

    de Jong, Elisabeth M; Jellesma, Francine C; Koomen, Helma M Y; de Jong, Peter F

    2016-01-01

    Previous research showed that a values-affirmation intervention can help reduce the achievement gap between African American and European American students in the US. In the present study, it was examined if these results would generalize to ethnic minority students in a country outside the US, namely the Netherlands, where there is also an achievement gap between native and ethnic minority students. This type of intervention was tested in two separate studies, the first among first-year pre-vocational students (n = 361, 84% ethnic minority), and the second among sixth grade students (n = 290, 96% ethnic minority). Most minority participants had a Turkish-Dutch or Moroccan-Dutch immigrant background. In the second study, a third condition was added to the original paradigm, in which students elaborated on either their affirmation- or a control exercise with the help of a teaching assistant. We also examined whether values affirmation affected the level of problem behavior of negatively stereotyped ethnic minority youth. Contrary to what was expected, multilevel analyses revealed that the intervention had no effect on the school achievement or the problem behavior of the ethnic minority students. Possible explanations for these findings, mainly related to contextual and cultural differences between the Netherlands and the US, are discussed. PMID:27242604

  19. A Values-Affirmation Intervention Does Not Benefit Negatively Stereotyped Immigrant Students in the Netherlands

    PubMed Central

    de Jong, Elisabeth M.; Jellesma, Francine C.; Koomen, Helma M. Y.; de Jong, Peter F.

    2016-01-01

    Previous research showed that a values-affirmation intervention can help reduce the achievement gap between African American and European American students in the US. In the present study, it was examined if these results would generalize to ethnic minority students in a country outside the US, namely the Netherlands, where there is also an achievement gap between native and ethnic minority students. This type of intervention was tested in two separate studies, the first among first-year pre-vocational students (n = 361, 84% ethnic minority), and the second among sixth grade students (n = 290, 96% ethnic minority). Most minority participants had a Turkish-Dutch or Moroccan-Dutch immigrant background. In the second study, a third condition was added to the original paradigm, in which students elaborated on either their affirmation- or a control exercise with the help of a teaching assistant. We also examined whether values affirmation affected the level of problem behavior of negatively stereotyped ethnic minority youth. Contrary to what was expected, multilevel analyses revealed that the intervention had no effect on the school achievement or the problem behavior of the ethnic minority students. Possible explanations for these findings, mainly related to contextual and cultural differences between the Netherlands and the US, are discussed. PMID:27242604

  20. Predicting Genetic Values: A Kernel-Based Best Linear Unbiased Prediction With Genomic Data

    PubMed Central

    Ober, Ulrike; Erbe, Malena; Long, Nanye; Porcu, Emilio; Schlather, Martin; Simianer, Henner

    2011-01-01

    Genomic data provide a valuable source of information for modeling covariance structures, allowing a more accurate prediction of total genetic values (GVs). We apply the kriging concept, originally developed in the geostatistical context for predictions in the low-dimensional space, to the high-dimensional space spanned by genomic single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) vectors and study its properties in different gene-action scenarios. Two different kriging methods [“universal kriging” (UK) and “simple kriging” (SK)] are presented. As a novelty, we suggest use of the family of Matérn covariance functions to model the covariance structure of SNP vectors. A genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) is applied as a reference method. The three approaches are compared in a whole-genome simulation study considering additive, additive-dominance, and epistatic gene-action models. Predictive performance is measured in terms of correlation between true and predicted GVs and average true GVs of the individuals ranked best by prediction. We show that UK outperforms GBLUP in the presence of dominance and epistatic effects. In a limiting case, it is shown that the genomic covariance structure proposed by VanRaden (2008) can be considered as a covariance function with corresponding quadratic variogram. We also prove theoretically that if a specific linear relationship exists between covariance matrices for two linear mixed models, the GVs resulting from BLUP are linked by a scaling factor. Finally, the relation of kriging to other models is discussed and further options for modeling the covariance structure, which might be more appropriate in the genomic context, are suggested. PMID:21515573

  1. Predicting First Onset of Depression in Young Girls: Interaction of Diurnal Cortisol and Negative Life Events

    PubMed Central

    LeMoult, Joelle; Ordaz, Sarah J.; Kircanski, Katharina; Singh, Manpreet K.; Gotlib, Ian H.

    2015-01-01

    Interactions between biological vulnerability and environmental adversity are central to the pathophysiology of depression. Given evidence that the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis influences biological responses to environmental events, in the current longitudinal study we examined HPA-axis functioning, negative life events, and their interaction as predictors of the first onset of depression. At baseline, girls ages 9 to 14 years provided saliva samples to assess levels of diurnal cortisol production, quantified by total cortisol production (area under the curve with respect to ground; AUCg) and the cortisol awakening response (CAR). We then followed these participants until they reached age 18 in order to assess their subsequent experience of negative life events and the onset of a depressive episode. We found that the influence of negative life events on the subsequent onset of depression depended on HPA-axis functioning at baseline. Specifically, negative life events predicted the onset of depression in girls with higher levels AUCg, but not in girls with lower levels of AUCg. In contrast, CAR did not predict the onset of depression either alone or in interaction with negative life events. These findings suggest that elevated total cortisol production in daily life potentiates susceptibility to environmental adversity and signals the need for early intervention. PMID:26595472

  2. Predicting first onset of depression in young girls: Interaction of diurnal cortisol and negative life events.

    PubMed

    LeMoult, Joelle; Ordaz, Sarah J; Kircanski, Katharina; Singh, Manpreet K; Gotlib, Ian H

    2015-11-01

    Interactions between biological vulnerability and environmental adversity are central to the pathophysiology of depression. Given evidence that the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis influences biological responses to environmental events, in the current longitudinal study the authors examined HPA-axis functioning, negative life events, and their interaction as predictors of the first onset of depression. At baseline, girls ages 9 to 14 years provided saliva samples to assess levels of diurnal cortisol production, quantified by total cortisol production (area under the curve with respect to ground; AUCg) and the cortisol awakening response (CAR). The authors then followed these participants until they reached age 18 in order to assess their subsequent experience of negative life events and the onset of a depressive episode. They found that the influence of negative life events on the subsequent onset of depression depended on HPA-axis functioning at baseline. Specifically, negative life events predicted the onset of depression in girls with higher levels of AUCg, but not in girls with lower levels of AUCg. In contrast, CAR did not predict the onset of depression either alone or in interaction with negative life events. These findings suggest that elevated total cortisol production in daily life potentiates susceptibility to environmental adversity and signals the need for early intervention. PMID:26595472

  3. Early Negative Affect Predicts Anxiety, not Autism, in Preschool Boys with Fragile X Syndrome

    PubMed Central

    Tonnsen, Bridgette L.; Malone, Patrick S.; Hatton, Deborah D.

    2012-01-01

    Children with fragile X syndrome (FXS) face high risk for anxiety disorders, yet no studies have explored FXS as a high-risk sample for investigating early manifestations of anxiety outcomes. Negative affect is one of the most salient predictors of problem behaviors and has been associated with both anxiety and autistic outcomes in clinical and non-clinical pediatric samples. In light of the high comorbidity between autism and anxiety within FXS, the present study investigates the relationship between longitudinal trajectories of negative affect (between 8 and 71 months) and severity of anxiety and autistic outcomes in young males with FXS (n= 25). Multilevel models indicated associations between elevated anxiety and higher fear and sadness, lower soothability, and steeper longitudinal increases in approach. Autistic outcomes were unrelated to negative affect. These findings suggest early negative affect differentially predicts anxiety, not autistic symptoms, within FXS. Future research is warranted to determine the specificity of the relationship between negative affect and anxiety, as well as to explore potential moderators. Characterizing the relationship between early negative affect and anxiety within FXS may inform etiology and treatment considerations specific to children with FXS, as well as lend insight into precursors of anxiety disorders in other clinical groups and community samples. PMID:23011214

  4. BacPP: a web-based tool for Gram-negative bacterial promoter prediction.

    PubMed

    de Avila E Silva, S; Notari, D L; Neis, F A; Ribeiro, H G; Echeverrigaray, S

    2016-01-01

    Bacterial Promoter Prediction (BacPP) is a tool used to predict given sequences as promoters of Gram-negative bacteria according to the σ factor that recognizes it. The first version of BacPP was implemented in Python language in a desktop version without a friendly interface. For this reason, a web version of BacPP is now available with the purpose of improving its usability and availability. The present paper describes the implementation of the web version of this tool, focusing on its software architecture and user functionalities. The software is available at www.bacpp.bioinfoucs.com/home. PMID:27173187

  5. Attention to Faces Expressing Negative Emotion at 7 Months Predicts Attachment Security at 14 Months.

    PubMed

    Peltola, Mikko J; Forssman, Linda; Puura, Kaija; van IJzendoorn, Marinus H; Leppänen, Jukka M

    2015-01-01

    To investigate potential infant-related antecedents characterizing later attachment security, this study tested whether attention to facial expressions, assessed with an eye-tracking paradigm at 7 months of age (N = 73), predicted infant-mother attachment in the Strange Situation Procedure at 14 months. Attention to fearful faces at 7 months predicted attachment security, with a smaller attentional bias to fearful expressions associated with insecure attachment. Attachment disorganization in particular was linked to an absence of the age-typical attentional bias to fear. These data provide the first evidence linking infants' attentional bias to negative facial expressions with attachment formation and suggest reduced sensitivity to facial expressions of negative emotion as a testable trait that could link attachment disorganization with later behavioral outcomes. PMID:26011101

  6. Negative cognitive style and looming cognitive style synergistically predict stress generation.

    PubMed

    Kleiman, Evan M; Riskind, John H

    2014-05-01

    There is a growing body of evidence that suggests that cognitive vulnerabilities to depression or anxiety may lead individuals to generate negative interpersonal life events. However, there has been no study to date that examines the effects of co-occurring vulnerabilities to depression and anxiety. In a sample of 304 participants, we examined the potential interaction of co-occurring negative cognitive style, a vulnerability to depression and looming cognitive style, vulnerability to anxiety. Results indicate that co-occurring cognitive vulnerabilities synergistically predict higher levels of negative interpersonal life events six weeks later, even when controlling for initial levels of stressful life events and symptoms of depression and anxiety. Thus, co-occurring vulnerabilities may have stronger stress generating effects than would be expected from the additive effects of each vulnerability considered separately. This finding highlights the importance of examining cognitive vulnerabilities as interactive effects rather than as individual vulnerabilities. PMID:24180249

  7. Prognostic Value of Cancer Stem Cells Markers in Triple-Negative Breast Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Collina, Francesca; Di Bonito, Maurizio; Li Bergolis, Valeria; De Laurentiis, Michelino; Vitagliano, Carlo; Cerrone, Margherita; Nuzzo, Francesco; Cantile, Monica; Botti, Gerardo

    2015-01-01

    Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) has a significant clinical relevance of being associated with a shorter median time to relapse and death and does not respond to endocrine therapy or other available targeted agents. Increased aggressiveness of this tumor, as well as resistance to standard drug therapies, may be associated with the presence of stem cell populations within the tumor. Several stemness markers have been described for the various histological subtypes of breast cancer, such as CD44, CD24, CD133, ALDH1, and ABCG2. The role of these markers in breast cancer is not clear yet and above all there are conflicting opinions about their real prognostic value. To investigate the role of CSCs markers in TNBC cancerogenesis and tumor progression, we selected 160 TNBCs samples on which we detected protein expression of CD44, CD24, CD133, ALDH1, and ABCG2 by immunohistochemistry. Our results highlighted a real prognostic role only for CD44 in TNBCs. All other CSCs markers do not appear to be related to the survival of TNBC patients. In conclusion, despite the fact that the presence of the cancer stem cells in the tumor provides important information on its potential aggressiveness, today their detection by immunohistochemistry is not sufficient to confirm their role in carcinogenesis, because specific markers probably are not yet identified. PMID:26504780

  8. The Predictive Value of Scores Used in Intensive Care Unit for Burn Patients Prognostic

    PubMed Central

    NOVAC, M.; DRAGOESCU, ALICE; STANCULESCU, ANDREEA; DUCA, LUCICA; CERNEA, DANIELA

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: Statistical evaluation of the prognosis of burned patients based on the analysis of prognostic scores as quickly and easily obtainable that track the evolution of burned patient in ICU. Material / Methods: The prospective study included 92 patients were performed with severe burns on 35-67% body surface large area, aiming to establish a cut-off score for each studied and statistically significant prognostic parameter for assessing the risk of mortality. The control group was represented by 20 patients with burns on the body surface of <10%. Results: The death rate was not statistically significant on burned (p> 0.05) sex (male / female), but we had p <0.001 when we referred to the total body surface area, and p <0.05 when we took into account the degree burns, acute respiratory distress syndrome and age. For each index / prognostic score studied by making ROC curve when they take different values, we set a cut-off. Quantification of variables by calculating the area under the ROC curve (AUC), sensitivity and sensitivity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV), allowed a better appreciation of these prognostic scores. Conclusions: These systems applicable to the burned patient scores, making a cut-off of each index / mortality probability score, he can manifest usefulness in medical decision making process and strategy to reduce the risk of death in patients with severe burns. PMID:26793322

  9. Predictive value of tender joints compared to synovitis for structural damage in rheumatoid arthritis

    PubMed Central

    Cheung, Peter P; Mari, Karine; Devauchelle-Pensec, Valérie; Jousse-Joulin, Sandrine; D'Agostino, Maria Antonietta; Chalès, Gérard; Gaudin, Philippe; Mariette, Xavier; Saraux, Alain; Dougados, Maxime

    2016-01-01

    Objective To evaluate the predictive value of tender joints compared to synovitis for structural damage in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Methods A post hoc analysis was performed on a prospective 2-year study of 59 patients with active RA starting on antitumour necrosis factor (TNF). Tenderness and synovitis was assessed clinically at baseline, followed by blinded ultrasound assessment (B-mode and power Doppler ultrasound (PDUS)) on the hands and feet (2 wrists, 10 metacarpophalangeal, 10 proximal interphalangeal and 10 metatarsophalangeal (MTP) joints). Radiographs of these joints were performed at baseline and at 2 years. The risk of radiographic progression with respect to the presence of baseline tenderness or synovitis, as well as its persistence (after 4 months of anti-TNF), was estimated by OR (95% CI). Results Baseline tender joints were the least predictive for radiographic progression (OR=1.53 (95% CI 1.02 to 2.29) p<0.04), when compared to synovitis (clinical OR=2.08 (95% CI 1.39 to 3.11) p<0.001 or PDUS OR=1.80 (95% CI 1.20 to 2.71) p=0.005, respectively). Tender joints with the presence of synovitis were predictive of radiographic progression (OR=1.89 (95% CI 1.25 to 2.85) p=0.002), especially seen in the MTP joints. Non-tender joints with no synovitis were negatively predictive (OR=0.57 (95% CI 0.39 to 0.82) p=0.003). Persistence of tender joints was negatively predictive (OR=0.38 (95% CI 0.18 to 0.78) p=0.009) while persistence of synovitis was predictive (OR=2.41 (95% CI 1.24 to 4.67) p=0.01) of radiographic progression. Conclusions Synovitis is better than tenderness to predict for subsequent structural progression. However, coexistence of tenderness and synovitis at the level of an individual joint is predictive of structural damage, particularly in the MTP joints. Trial registration number NCT00444691. PMID:27042336

  10. A field evaluation of the predictive value of a hand-held drum pressure detection device.

    PubMed

    Pannell, Michael A; Brandt, Michael T; Boatright, Daniel T

    2004-05-01

    According to Environmental Protection Agency estimates, 20% of hazardous waste drums currently managed in the 6500 known, uncontrolled Superfund removal or remediation sites contain some degree of elevated internal pressurization. This estimate increases to 90% during the summer months, and, overall, up to 5% of the drums stored in active treatment, storage, and disposal facilities may be pressurized. The ability to identify pressurized drums in real-time would enhance worker health and safety, reduce the potential for environmental contamination, and minimize property damage. A prototype hand-held drum pressure detection device was field tested at an active Resource Conservation and Recovery Act mixed waste operation using acoustic resonance spectroscopy technology to identify pressurized drums. The waste operation used a drum venting system that measured the actual drum pressure of retrieved drums. Drum venting system data were analyzed to quantify the ability of the drum pressure detection device to correctly identify drums with elevated internal pressure. After 456 drums were measured, the dichotomous pressure data (pressurized vs. nonpressurized) were analyzed. The relationship between the drum venting system and drum pressure detection device pressure data was found to be statistically significant. With alpha and beta values of 0.05, the negative predictive value was 0.94, the positive predictive value was 0.47, the sensitivity was 0.82, and the specificity was 0.77. Although capable of identifying nonpressurized drums, this instrument may not be appropriate for general use. Study results and critical improvements necessary to improve the instrument's predictive value, specificity, and sensitivity are presented. PMID:15238340

  11. [Predictive value of cognitive variables for the information utilization process].

    PubMed

    Hussy, W; Scheller, R

    1977-01-01

    Sequential predictive behaviour is used to analyse human problem solving. The most predictive and discriminative variables regarding the observable information reducing phases of the problem solving process are variables of cognitive complexity. The same holds for variables of cognitive flexibility regarding the information generating phase. Empirical evidence with respect to the thereby occurring interaction between the heuristic and epistemic part of the cognitive structure is yielded. PMID:603376

  12. Gaze-fixation to happy faces predicts mood repair after a negative mood induction.

    PubMed

    Sanchez, Alvaro; Vazquez, Carmelo; Gomez, Diego; Joormann, Jutta

    2014-02-01

    The present study tested the interplay between mood and attentional deployment by examining attention to positive (i.e., happy faces) and negative (i.e., angry and sad faces) stimuli in response to experimental inductions of sad and happy mood. Participants underwent a negative, neutral, or positive mood induction procedure (MIP) which was followed by an assessment of their attentional deployment to emotional faces using eye-tracking technology. Faces were selected from the Karolinska Directed Emotional Faces (KDEF) database (Lundqvist, Flykt, & Öhman, 1998). In the positive MIP condition, analyses revealed a mood-congruent relation between positive mood and greater attentional deployment to happy faces. In the negative MIP condition, however, analyses revealed a mood-incongruent relation between increased negative mood and greater attentional deployment to happy faces. Furthermore, attentional deployment to happy faces after the negative MIP predicted participants' mood recovery at the end of the experimental session. These results suggest that attentional processing of positive information may play a role in mood repair, which may have important clinical implications. PMID:24188064

  13. Incremental Validity of Positive and Negative Valence in Predicting Personality Disorder

    PubMed Central

    Simms, Leonard J.; Yufik, Tom; Gros, Daniel F.

    2010-01-01

    The Big Seven model of personality includes five dimensions similar to the Big Five model as well as two evaluative dimensions—Positive Valence (PV) and Negative Valence (NV)—which reflect extremely positive and negative person descriptors, respectively. Recent theory and research have suggested that PV and NV predict significant variance in personality disorder (PD) above that predicted by the Big Five, but firm conclusions have not been possible because previous studies have been limited to only single measures of PV, NV, and the Big Five traits. In the present study, we replicated and extended previous findings using three markers of all key constructs—including PV, NV, and the Big Five—in a diverse sample of 338 undergraduates. Results of hierarchical multiple regression analyses revealed that PV incrementally predicted Narcissistic and Histrionic PDs above the Big Five and that NV non-specifically incremented the prediction of most PDs. Implications for dimensional models of personality pathology are discussed. PMID:20730038

  14. The Predictive and Instructional Value of Interim Assessments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pon, Kathleen

    2013-01-01

    This mixed design study investigated the predictive and instructional uses of two different types of interim mathematics assessments given in two different districts. One district administered the same summative type of assessment three times a year, while the other district administered a different interim assessment after six-week intervals of…

  15. Gender, Race, and the Predictive Value of the LSAT.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Simon, Rita J.; Danner, Mona J. E.

    1990-01-01

    A study evaluated the accuracy of Law School Admission Test (LSAT) scores in predicting student law school performance. Male and female scores and White, Black, or Hispanic scores were compared. Data were drawn from 1987 and 1988 graduating classes of five geographically diverse law schools. No significant differences between groups were found.…

  16. Financial Strain and Stressful Events Predict Newlyweds’ Negative Communication Independent of Relationship Satisfaction

    PubMed Central

    Williamson, Hannah C.; Karney, Benjamin R.; Bradbury, Thomas N.

    2013-01-01

    Social-learning perspectives explicitly recognize the role of partners’ personal histories and contexts as possible causes of couple communication behavior, but these assumptions are rarely tested directly, and operationalizations of context in behavioral research on couples rarely extend beyond the interacting dyad. To broaden our understanding of why couples differ in communication, the current study examined whether observed behaviors in marital interactions covary with individual experiences and contextual factors. Behaviors coded from in-home conversations of 414 ethnically-diverse newlywed couples were examined simultaneously in relation to childhood and family-of-origin experiences, financial strain and stressful life events, depressive symptoms, and relationship satisfaction. A latent factor representing financial strain and stressful life events was the strongest correlate of negative communication, with higher levels of stress predicting more negativity. Relationship satisfaction was the strongest correlate of observed positivity, with higher levels of satisfaction predicting more positivity. Childhood and family experiences were unrelated to behaviors, whereas results for depressive symptoms were complex and counterintuitive. Because the negative behaviors highlighted in social-learning models of relationship functioning, and often targeted in educational interventions, covary reliably with the stresses and financial strains that couples experience, contextual factors merit greater emphasis in models designed to explain and prevent marital deterioration. PMID:23421833

  17. Phospho-T356RB1 predicts survival in HPV-negative squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck

    PubMed Central

    Handorf, Elizabeth; Nikonova, Anna; Dubyk, Cara; Peri, Suraj; Lango, Miriam; Ridge, John A.; Serebriiskii, Ilya G.; Burtness, Barbara; Golemis, Erica A.; Mehra, Ranee

    2015-01-01

    Locally advanced squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (SCCHN) that is not associated with human papillomavirus (HPV) has a poor prognosis in contrast to HPV-positive disease. To better understand the importance of RB1 activity in HPV-negative SCCHN, we investigated the prognostic value of inhibitory CDK4/6 phosphorylation of RB1 on threonine 356 (T356) in archival HPV-negative tumor specimens from patients who underwent surgical resection and adjuvant radiation. We benchmarked pT356RB1 to total RB1, Ki67, pT202/Y204ERK1/2, and TP53, as quantified by automatic quantitative analysis (AQUA), and correlated protein expression with tumor stage and grade. High expression of pT356RB1 but not total RB1 predicted reduced overall survival (OS; P = 0.0295), indicating the potential relevance of post-translational phosphorylation. Paired analysis of The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) data for regulators of this RB1 phosphorylation identified loss or truncating mutation of negative regulator CDKN2A (p16) and elevated expression of the CDK4/6 activator CCND1 (cyclin D) as also predicting poor survival. Given that CDK4/6 inhibitors have been most effective in the context of functional RB1 and low expression or deletion of p16 in other tumor types, these data suggest such agents may merit evaluation in HPV-negative SCCHN, specifically in cases associated with high pT356RB1. PMID:26265441

  18. Cumulative activation during positive and negative events and state anxiety predicts subsequent inertia of amygdala reactivity

    PubMed Central

    Miendlarzewska, Ewa A.; Eryilmaz, Hamdi; Vuilleumier, Patrik

    2015-01-01

    Inertia, together with intensity and valence, is an important component of emotion. We tested whether positive and negative events generate lingering changes in subsequent brain responses to unrelated threat stimuli and investigated the impact of individual anxiety. We acquired fMRI data while participants watched positive or negative movie-clips and subsequently performed an unrelated task with fearful and neutral faces. We quantified changes in amygdala reactivity to fearful faces as a function of the valence of preceding movies and cumulative neural activity evoked during them. We demonstrate that amygdala responses to emotional movies spill over to subsequent processing of threat information in a valence-specific manner: negative movies enhance later amygdala activation whereas positive movies attenuate it. Critically, the magnitude of such changes is predicted by a measure of cumulative amygdala responses to the preceding positive or negative movies. These effects appear independent of overt attention, are regionally limited to amygdala, with no changes in functional connectivity. Finally, individuals with higher state anxiety displayed stronger modulation of amygdala reactivity by positive movies. These results suggest that intensity and valence of emotional events as well as anxiety levels promote local changes in amygdala sensitivity to threat, highlighting the importance of past experience in shaping future affective reactivity. PMID:24603023

  19. The neural correlates of negative prediction error signaling in human fear conditioning.

    PubMed

    Spoormaker, V I; Andrade, K C; Schröter, M S; Sturm, A; Goya-Maldonado, R; Sämann, P G; Czisch, M

    2011-02-01

    In a temporal difference (TD) learning approach to classical conditioning, a prediction error (PE) signal shifts from outcome deliverance to the onset of the conditioned stimulus. Omission of an expected outcome results in a negative PE signal, which is the initial step towards successful extinction. In order to visualize negative PE signaling during fear conditioning, we employed combined functional magnetic resonance (fMRI) and skin conductance response (SCR) measurements in a conditioning task with visual stimuli and mild electrical shocks. Positive PE signaling was associated with increased activation in the bilateral insula, supplementary motor area, brainstem, and visual cortices. Negative PE signaling was associated with increased activation in the ventromedial and dorsolateral prefrontal cortices, the left lateral orbital gyrus, the middle temporal gyri, angular gyri, and visual cortices. The involvement of the ventromedial prefrontal and orbitofrontal cortex in extinction learning has been well documented, and this study provides evidence for the notion that these regions are already involved in negative PE signaling during fear conditioning. PMID:20869454

  20. Mindfulness Trait Predicts Neurophysiological Reactivity Associated with Negativity Bias: An ERP Study

    PubMed Central

    Ho, Nerissa S. P.; Sun, Delin; Ting, Kin-Hung; Chan, Chetwyn C. H.; Lee, Tatia M. C.

    2015-01-01

    This study explored the relationship of mindfulness trait with the early and late stages of affective processing, by examining the two corresponding ERP components, P2 and LPP, collected from twenty-two male Chinese participants with a wide range of meditation experiences. Multiple regression analyses was performed on the mindfulness scores, as measured by CAMS-R, with the subjective affective ratings and ERP data collected during an emotion processing task. The results showed that increased mindfulness scores predicted increased valence ratings of negative stimuli (less negative), as well as increased P2 amplitudes at the frontocentral location for positive compared to negative stimuli. Based on these findings, a plausible mechanism of mindfulness in reducing negativity bias was discussed. Moreover, our results replicated previous findings on the age-related increase of P2 amplitudes at the frontal sites for positive compared to neutral stimuli. Since the locations at which P2 amplitudes were found as associated with age and mindfulness differed, as did the emotional contents of the stimuli being compared, indicating that the effect of age did not confound our findings on mindfulness and the two factors might operate on early affective processing from distinct sources and mechanisms. PMID:26124852

  1. Mothers' depressive symptoms predict both increased and reduced negative reactivity: aversion sensitivity and the regulation of emotion.

    PubMed

    Dix, Theodore; Moed, Anat; Anderson, Edward R

    2014-07-01

    This study examined whether, as mothers' depressive symptoms increase, their expressions of negative emotion to children increasingly reflect aversion sensitivity and motivation to minimize ongoing stress or discomfort. In multiple interactions over 2 years, negative affect expressed by 319 mothers and their children was observed across variations in mothers' depressive symptoms, the aversiveness of children's immediate behavior, and observed differences in children's general negative reactivity. As expected, depressive symptoms predicted reduced maternal negative reactivity when child behavior was low in aversiveness, particularly with children who were high in negative reactivity. Depressive symptoms predicted high negative reactivity and steep increases in negative reactivity as the aversiveness of child behavior increased, particularly when high and continued aversiveness from the child was expected (i.e., children were high in negative reactivity). The findings are consistent with the proposal that deficits in parenting competence as depressive symptoms increase reflect aversion sensitivity and motivation to avoid conflict and suppress children's aversive behavior. PMID:24796661

  2. Choosing negative examples for the prediction of protein-protein interactions

    PubMed Central

    Ben-Hur, Asa; Noble, William Stafford

    2006-01-01

    The protein-protein interaction networks of even well-studied model organisms are sketchy at best, highlighting the continued need for computational methods to help direct experimentalists in the search for novel interactions. This need has prompted the development of a number of methods for predicting protein-protein interactions based on various sources of data and methodologies. The common method for choosing negative examples for training a predictor of protein-protein interactions is based on annotations of cellular localization, and the observation that pairs of proteins that have different localization patterns are unlikely to interact. While this method leads to high quality sets of non-interacting proteins, we find that this choice can lead to biased estimates of prediction accuracy, because the constraints placed on the distribution of the negative examples makes the task easier. The effects of this bias are demonstrated in the context of both sequence-based and non-sequence based features used for predicting protein-protein interactions. PMID:16723005

  3. Predictive value of fine needle aspiration biopsy of axillary lymph nodes in preoperative breast cancer staging

    PubMed Central

    Akıncı, Muzaffer; Bulut, Serap Pamak; Erözgen, Fazilet; Gürbüzel, Mihriban; Gülşen, Gökçe; Kocakuşak, Ahmet; Gülen, Mehmet; Kaplan, Rafet

    2016-01-01

    Objective Diagnosis of axillary nodal involvement is significant in the management of breast cancer as well as in predicting prognosis. In this prospective study, we evaluated the efficiency of US-guided fine needle aspiration biopsy (FNAB) in preoperative axillary staging of early breast cancer. Material and Methods Between January 2011 and July 2013, 46 women were prospectively enrolled in the study. Ultrasound guided-FNABs for axillary assessment were performed preoperatively. Cytology results were compared with histopathology reports to determine its sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive predictive value and accuracy. Results Nineteen cases that had malignant cytology on FNAB also had axillary involvement in axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) without any false-positive results. The sensitivity and specificity of US-guided FNAB were 63.3% and 100%, respectively. US-guided FNAB was accurate in predicting the status of the axilla in 76.1% of patients. Conclusion Although this technique is favorable due to its minimally invasive nature, it is not as effective as sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) in terms of detecting axillary metastasis preoperatively. The low sensitivity and low accuracy rates decrease the usefulness of the technique. Therefore, it seems that US-guided FNAB alone could not replace SLNB. Nevertheless, combining some other molecular studies may be useful in increasing the technique’s sensitivity. These issues should be determined by comprehensive clinical trials. PMID:27528822

  4. Computational prediction of type III and IV secreted effectors in Gram-negative bacteria

    SciTech Connect

    McDermott, Jason E.; Corrigan, Abigail L.; Peterson, Elena S.; Oehmen, Christopher S.; Niemann, George; Cambronne, Eric; Sharp, Danna; Adkins, Joshua N.; Samudrala, Ram; Heffron, Fred

    2011-01-01

    In this review, we provide an overview of the methods employed by four recent papers that described novel methods for computational prediction of secreted effectors from type III and IV secretion systems in Gram-negative bacteria. The results of the studies in terms of performance at accurately predicting secreted effectors and similarities found between secretion signals that may reflect biologically relevant features for recognition. We discuss the web-based tools for secreted effector prediction described in these studies and announce the availability of our tool, the SIEVEserver (http://www.biopilot.org). Finally, we assess the accuracy of the three type III effector prediction methods on a small set of proteins not known prior to the development of these tools that we have recently discovered and validated using both experimental and computational approaches. Our comparison shows that all methods use similar approaches and, in general arrive at similar conclusions. We discuss the possibility of an order-dependent motif in the secretion signal, which was a point of disagreement in the studies. Our results show that there may be classes of effectors in which the signal has a loosely defined motif, and others in which secretion is dependent only on compositional biases. Computational prediction of secreted effectors from protein sequences represents an important step toward better understanding the interaction between pathogens and hosts.

  5. Predicting p Ka values from EEM atomic charges

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    The acid dissociation constant p Ka is a very important molecular property, and there is a strong interest in the development of reliable and fast methods for p Ka prediction. We have evaluated the p Ka prediction capabilities of QSPR models based on empirical atomic charges calculated by the Electronegativity Equalization Method (EEM). Specifically, we collected 18 EEM parameter sets created for 8 different quantum mechanical (QM) charge calculation schemes. Afterwards, we prepared a training set of 74 substituted phenols. Additionally, for each molecule we generated its dissociated form by removing the phenolic hydrogen. For all the molecules in the training set, we then calculated EEM charges using the 18 parameter sets, and the QM charges using the 8 above mentioned charge calculation schemes. For each type of QM and EEM charges, we created one QSPR model employing charges from the non-dissociated molecules (three descriptor QSPR models), and one QSPR model based on charges from both dissociated and non-dissociated molecules (QSPR models with five descriptors). Afterwards, we calculated the quality criteria and evaluated all the QSPR models obtained. We found that QSPR models employing the EEM charges proved as a good approach for the prediction of p Ka (63% of these models had R2 > 0.9, while the best had R2 = 0.924). As expected, QM QSPR models provided more accurate p Ka predictions than the EEM QSPR models but the differences were not significant. Furthermore, a big advantage of the EEM QSPR models is that their descriptors (i.e., EEM atomic charges) can be calculated markedly faster than the QM charge descriptors. Moreover, we found that the EEM QSPR models are not so strongly influenced by the selection of the charge calculation approach as the QM QSPR models. The robustness of the EEM QSPR models was subsequently confirmed by cross-validation. The applicability of EEM QSPR models for other chemical classes was illustrated by a case study focused on

  6. Predicting p Ka values from EEM atomic charges.

    PubMed

    Vařeková, Radka Svobodová; Geidl, Stanislav; Ionescu, Crina-Maria; Skřehota, Ondřej; Bouchal, Tomáš; Sehnal, David; Abagyan, Ruben; Koča, Jaroslav

    2013-01-01

    : The acid dissociation constant p Ka is a very important molecular property, and there is a strong interest in the development of reliable and fast methods for p Ka prediction. We have evaluated the p Ka prediction capabilities of QSPR models based on empirical atomic charges calculated by the Electronegativity Equalization Method (EEM). Specifically, we collected 18 EEM parameter sets created for 8 different quantum mechanical (QM) charge calculation schemes. Afterwards, we prepared a training set of 74 substituted phenols. Additionally, for each molecule we generated its dissociated form by removing the phenolic hydrogen. For all the molecules in the training set, we then calculated EEM charges using the 18 parameter sets, and the QM charges using the 8 above mentioned charge calculation schemes. For each type of QM and EEM charges, we created one QSPR model employing charges from the non-dissociated molecules (three descriptor QSPR models), and one QSPR model based on charges from both dissociated and non-dissociated molecules (QSPR models with five descriptors). Afterwards, we calculated the quality criteria and evaluated all the QSPR models obtained. We found that QSPR models employing the EEM charges proved as a good approach for the prediction of p Ka (63% of these models had R2 > 0.9, while the best had R2 = 0.924). As expected, QM QSPR models provided more accurate p Ka predictions than the EEM QSPR models but the differences were not significant. Furthermore, a big advantage of the EEM QSPR models is that their descriptors (i.e., EEM atomic charges) can be calculated markedly faster than the QM charge descriptors. Moreover, we found that the EEM QSPR models are not so strongly influenced by the selection of the charge calculation approach as the QM QSPR models. The robustness of the EEM QSPR models was subsequently confirmed by cross-validation. The applicability of EEM QSPR models for other chemical classes was illustrated by a case study focused on

  7. 21 CFR 868.1890 - Predictive pulmonary-function value calculator.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Predictive pulmonary-function value calculator. 868.1890 Section 868.1890 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN... pulmonary-function value calculator. (a) Identification. A predictive pulmonary-function value calculator...

  8. The Role of Negative Affectivity and Negative Reactivity to Emotions in Predicting Outcomes in the Unified Protocol for the Transdiagnostic Treatment of Emotional Disorders

    PubMed Central

    Sauer-Zavala, Shannon; Boswell, James F.; Gallagher, Matthew W.; Bentley, Kate H.; Ametaj, Amantia; Barlow, David H.

    2012-01-01

    The present study aimed to understand the contributions of both the trait tendency to experience negative emotions and how one relates to such experience in predicting symptom change during participation in the Unified Protocol (UP), a transdiagnostic treatment for emotional disorders. Data were derived from a randomized controlled trial comparing the UP to a wait-list control / delayed-treatment condition. First, effect sizes of pre- to post-treatment change for frequency of negative emotions and several variables measuring reactivity to emotional experience (emotional awareness and acceptance, fear of emotions, and anxiety sensitivity) were examined. Second, the relative contributions of change in negative emotions and emotional reactivity in predicting symptom (clinician-rated anxiety, depression, and severity of principal diagnosis) reductions were investigated. Results suggested that decreases in the frequency of negative emotions and reactivity to emotions following participation in the UP were both large in magnitude. Further, two emotional reactivity variables (fear of emotions and anxiety sensitivity) remained significantly related to symptom outcomes when controlling for negative emotions, and accounted for significant incremental variance in their prediction. These findings lend support to the notion that psychological health depends less on the frequency of negative emotions and more on how one relates to these emotions when they occur. PMID:22738907

  9. Quantification, Prediction, and the Online Impact of Sentence Truth-Value: Evidence From Event-Related Potentials

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Do negative quantifiers like “few” reduce people’s ability to rapidly evaluate incoming language with respect to world knowledge? Previous research has addressed this question by examining whether online measures of quantifier comprehension match the “final” interpretation reflected in verification judgments. However, these studies confounded quantifier valence with its impact on the unfolding expectations for upcoming words, yielding mixed results. In the current event-related potentials study, participants read negative and positive quantifier sentences matched on cloze probability and on truth-value (e.g., “Most/Few gardeners plant their flowers during the spring/winter for best results”). Regardless of whether participants explicitly verified the sentences or not, true-positive quantifier sentences elicited reduced N400s compared with false-positive quantifier sentences, reflecting the facilitated semantic retrieval of words that render a sentence true. No such facilitation was seen in negative quantifier sentences. However, mixed-effects model analyses (with cloze value and truth-value as continuous predictors) revealed that decreasing cloze values were associated with an interaction pattern between truth-value and quantifier, whereas increasing cloze values were associated with more similar truth-value effects regardless of quantifier. Quantifier sentences are thus understood neither always in 2 sequential stages, nor always in a partial-incremental fashion, nor always in a maximally incremental fashion. Instead, and in accordance with prediction-based views of sentence comprehension, quantifier sentence comprehension depends on incorporation of quantifier meaning into an online, knowledge-based prediction for upcoming words. Fully incremental quantifier interpretation occurs when quantifiers are incorporated into sufficiently strong online predictions for upcoming words. PMID:26375784

  10. Triple-negative breast cancer: bridging the gap from cancer genomics to predictive biomarkers

    PubMed Central

    Davis, S. Lindsey; Eckhardt, S. Gail; Tentler, John J.

    2014-01-01

    Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) represents a challenge clinically due to a lack of response to hormonal and HER2-targeted agents coupled with an aggressive disease course. As the biology of this breast cancer subtype is better understood, it is clear that TNBC is a heterogeneous disease and one targeted therapy is unlikely to be active in all patients. Biomarkers predictive of response to treatment are thus of great importance in TNBC. This review outlines studies evaluating biomarkers predictive of response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy and to targeted therapies in the advanced setting. The development of validated biomarkers in conjunction with novel targeted therapies represents an opportunity to improve patient outcomes in TNBC. PMID:24790649

  11. Encoding of both positive and negative reward prediction errors by neurons of the primate lateral prefrontal cortex and caudate nucleus.

    PubMed

    Asaad, Wael F; Eskandar, Emad N

    2011-12-01

    Learning can be motivated by unanticipated success or unexpected failure. The former encourages us to repeat an action or activity, whereas the latter leads us to find an alternative strategy. Understanding the neural representation of these unexpected events is therefore critical to elucidate learning-related circuits. We examined the activity of neurons in the lateral prefrontal cortex (PFC) and caudate nucleus of monkeys as they performed a trial-and-error learning task. Unexpected outcomes were widely represented in both structures, and neurons driven by unexpectedly negative outcomes were as frequent as those activated by unexpectedly positive outcomes. Moreover, both positive and negative reward prediction errors (RPEs) were represented primarily by increases in firing rate, unlike the manner in which dopamine neurons have been observed to reflect these values. Interestingly, positive RPEs tended to appear with shorter latency than negative RPEs, perhaps reflecting the mechanism of their generation. Last, in the PFC but not the caudate, trial-by-trial variations in outcome-related activity were linked to the animals' subsequent behavioral decisions. More broadly, the robustness of RPE signaling by these neurons suggests that actor-critic models of reinforcement learning in which the PFC and particularly the caudate are considered primarily to be "actors" rather than "critics," should be reconsidered to include a prominent evaluative role for these structures. PMID:22159094

  12. Predicting response and survival in chemotherapy-treated triple-negative breast cancer

    PubMed Central

    Prat, A; Lluch, A; Albanell, J; Barry, W T; Fan, C; Chacón, J I; Parker, J S; Calvo, L; Plazaola, A; Arcusa, A; Seguí-Palmer, M A; Burgues, O; Ribelles, N; Rodriguez-Lescure, A; Guerrero, A; Ruiz-Borrego, M; Munarriz, B; López, J A; Adamo, B; Cheang, M C U; Li, Y; Hu, Z; Gulley, M L; Vidal, M J; Pitcher, B N; Liu, M C; Citron, M L; Ellis, M J; Mardis, E; Vickery, T; Hudis, C A; Winer, E P; Carey, L A; Caballero, R; Carrasco, E; Martín, M; Perou, C M; Alba, E

    2014-01-01

    Background: In this study, we evaluated the ability of gene expression profiles to predict chemotherapy response and survival in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). Methods: Gene expression and clinical–pathological data were evaluated in five independent cohorts, including three randomised clinical trials for a total of 1055 patients with TNBC, basal-like disease (BLBC) or both. Previously defined intrinsic molecular subtype and a proliferation signature were determined and tested. Each signature was tested using multivariable logistic regression models (for pCR (pathological complete response)) and Cox models (for survival). Within TNBC, interactions between each signature and the basal-like subtype (vs other subtypes) for predicting either pCR or survival were investigated. Results: Within TNBC, all intrinsic subtypes were identified but BLBC predominated (55–81%). Significant associations between genomic signatures and response and survival after chemotherapy were only identified within BLBC and not within TNBC as a whole. In particular, high expression of a previously identified proliferation signature, or low expression of the luminal A signature, was found independently associated with pCR and improved survival following chemotherapy across different cohorts. Significant interaction tests were only obtained between each signature and the BLBC subtype for prediction of chemotherapy response or survival. Conclusions: The proliferation signature predicts response and improved survival after chemotherapy, but only within BLBC. This highlights the clinical implications of TNBC heterogeneity, and suggests that future clinical trials focused on this phenotypic subtype should consider stratifying patients as having BLBC or not. PMID:25101563

  13. What predicts negative effects of rheumatoid arthritis? A follow-up two years after diagnosis.

    PubMed

    Gåfvels, Catharina; Hägerström, Margareta; Nordmark, Birgitta; Wändell, Per

    2014-01-01

    We aimed at analyzing important predictive factors for experienced negative emotional and social effects of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) two years after diagnosis in patients aged 18-65 years. The first group included 41 participants, who had psychosocial problems (PSP) already at diagnosis, and who received an intervention by a medical social worker to improve coping capacity and social situation. The second group included 54 patients (NPSP) without such problems at diagnosis. All completed a questionnaire mapping their social situation, the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), the Sense of Coherence Scale (SOC) and the General Coping Questionnaire (GCQ) at diagnosis and after 24 months. The most pronounced predictive factor for a strong impact of the disease was high scores on HADS depression scale. After 24 months, PSP participants had a more strained life situation, with higher scores on anxiety and depression and lower on SOC, in comparison with NPSP. NPSP participants improved their coping strategies regarding self-trust, cognitive revaluation, protest and intrusion, but deteriorated regarding problem focusing and social trust. PSP patients kept their initial coping strategies, except for intrusion decreasing over time, and seemed to have a more rigid coping pattern. However, the experienced negative impact of the disease increased over time in both groups despite improvement in sickness related data. Mostly influenced areas were economy, leisure time activities and social life. We conclude that psychosocial consequences of RA are more connected to emotional and social vulnerability than are RA-related clinical factors. PMID:24634809

  14. Valence-separated representation of reward prediction error in feedback-related negativity and positivity.

    PubMed

    Bai, Yu; Katahira, Kentaro; Ohira, Hideki

    2015-02-11

    Feedback-related negativity (FRN) is an event-related brain potential (ERP) component elicited by errors and negative outcomes. Previous studies proposed that FRN reflects the activity of a general error-processing system that incorporates reward prediction error (RPE). However, other studies reported inconsistent results on this issue - namely, that FRN only reflects the valence of feedback and that the magnitude of RPE is reflected by the other ERP component called P300. The present study focused on the relationship between the FRN amplitude and RPE. ERPs were recorded during a reversal learning task performed by the participants, and a computational model was used to estimate trial-by-trial RPEs, which we correlated with the ERPs. The results indicated that FRN and P300 reflected the magnitude of RPE in negative outcomes and positive outcomes, respectively. In addition, the correlation between RPE and the P300 amplitude was stronger than the correlation between RPE and the FRN amplitude. These differences in the correlation between ERP and RPE components may explain the inconsistent results reported by previous studies; the asymmetry in the correlations might make it difficult to detect the effect of the RPE magnitude on the FRN and makes it appear that the FRN only reflects the valence of feedback. PMID:25634316

  15. School Leadership in Turbulent Times and the Value of Negative Capability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clarke, Simon

    2016-01-01

    Given the turbulence of the contemporary education environment this paper argues it is necessary to adopt more flexible approaches to leadership than has traditionally been the case and involving new ways of learning and behaviours. In this regard, the paper investigates the paradoxical concept of "negative capability" and its potential…

  16. Leadership Values, Trust and Negative Capability: Managing the Uncertainties of Future English Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jameson, Jill

    2012-01-01

    The complex leadership attribute of "negative capability" in managing uncertainty and engendering trust may be amongst the qualities enabling institutions to cope with multiple recent government policy challenges affecting English higher education, including significant increases in student fees. Research findings are reported on changes in…

  17. Bidirectional-Compounding Effects of Rumination and Negative Emotion in Predicting Impulsive Behavior: Implications for Emotional Cascades.

    PubMed

    Selby, Edward A; Kranzler, Amy; Panza, Emily; Fehling, Kara B

    2016-04-01

    Influenced by chaos theory, the emotional cascade model proposes that rumination and negative emotion may promote each other in a self-amplifying cycle that increases over time. Accordingly, exponential-compounding effects may better describe the relationship between rumination and negative emotion when they occur in impulsive persons, and predict impulsive behavior. Forty-seven community and undergraduate participants who reported frequent engagement in impulsive behaviors monitored their ruminative thoughts and negative emotion multiple times daily for two weeks using digital recording devices. Hypotheses were tested using cross-lagged mixed model analyses. Findings indicated that rumination predicted subsequent elevations in rumination that lasted over extended periods of time. Rumination and negative emotion predicted increased levels of each other at subsequent assessments, and exponential functions for these associations were supported. Results also supported a synergistic effect between rumination and negative emotion, predicting larger elevations in subsequent rumination and negative emotion than when one variable alone was elevated. Finally, there were synergistic effects of rumination and negative emotion in predicting number of impulsive behaviors subsequently reported. These findings are consistent with the emotional cascade model in suggesting that momentary rumination and negative emotion progressively propagate and magnify each other over time in impulsive people, promoting impulsive behavior. PMID:25388298

  18. Genome-wide DNA methylation profiling in triple-negative breast cancer reveals epigenetic signatures with important clinical value

    PubMed Central

    Stirzaker, Clare; Zotenko, Elena; Clark, Susan J

    2016-01-01

    abstract Analysis of cancer methylomes has dramatically changed our concept of the potential of diagnostic and prognostic methylation biomarkers in disease stratification. Through whole-genome methylation capture sequencing of triple-negative breast cancers (TNBCs) we recently identified differentially methylated regions with diagnostic and prognostic value that promise to stratify TNBCs for more personalized management. PMID:27308556

  19. Genome-wide DNA methylation profiling in triple-negative breast cancer reveals epigenetic signatures with important clinical value.

    PubMed

    Stirzaker, Clare; Zotenko, Elena; Clark, Susan J

    2016-01-01

    Analysis of cancer methylomes has dramatically changed our concept of the potential of diagnostic and prognostic methylation biomarkers in disease stratification. Through whole-genome methylation capture sequencing of triple-negative breast cancers (TNBCs) we recently identified differentially methylated regions with diagnostic and prognostic value that promise to stratify TNBCs for more personalized management. PMID:27308556

  20. Getting off on the right foot: subjective value versus economic value in predicting longitudinal job outcomes from job offer negotiations.

    PubMed

    Curhan, Jared R; Elfenbein, Hillary Anger; Kilduff, Gavin J

    2009-03-01

    Although negotiation experiences can affect a negotiator's ensuing attitudes and behavior, little is known about their long-term consequences. Using a longitudinal survey design, the authors tested the degree to which economic and subjective value achieved in job offer negotiations predicts employees' subsequent job attitudes and intentions concerning turnover. Results indicate that subjective value predicts greater compensation satisfaction and job satisfaction and lower turnover intention measured 1 year later. Surprisingly, the economic outcomes that negotiators achieved had no apparent effects on these factors. Implications, limitations, and future directions are discussed. PMID:19271806

  1. The Value of Serum NR2 Antibody in Prediction of Post-Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation Survival

    PubMed Central

    Bidari, Ali; Vaziri, Samira; Moazen Zadeh, Ehsan; Farahmand, Sahar; Talachian, Elham

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor subunits antibody (NR2-ab) is a sensitive marker of ischemic brain damage in clinical circumstances, such as cerebrovascular accidents. We aimed to assess the value of serum NR2-ab in predicting the post-cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) survival. Methods: In this cohort study, we examined serum NR2-ab levels 1 hour after the return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) in 49 successfully resuscitated patients. Patients with traumatic or asphyxic arrests, prior neurological insults, or major medical illnesses were excluded. Participants were followed until death or hospital discharge. Demographic data, coronary artery disease risk factors, time before initiation of CPR, and CPR duration were documented. In addition, Glasgow coma scale (GCS), blood pressure, and survival status of patients were recorded at 1, 6, 24, and 72 hour(s) after ROSC. Descriptive analyses were performed, and the Cox proportional hazard model was applied to assess if NR2-ab level is an independent predictive factor of survival. Results: 49 successfully resuscitated patients were evaluated; 27 (55%) survived to hospital discharge, 4 (8.1%) were in vegetative state, 10 (20.4%) were physically disabled, and 13 (26.5%) were physically functional. Within 72 hours of ROSC all of the 12 NR2-ab positive patients died. In contrast, 31 (84%) of the NR2-ab negative patients survived. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios of NR2-ab in prediction of survival were 54.5% (95%CI=32.7%-74.9%), 100% (95%CI=84.5%-100%), infinite, and 45.5% (95%CI=28.8%-71.8%), respectively. Subsequent analysis showed that both NR2-ab status and GCS were independent risk factors of death. Conclusions: A positive NR2-ab serum test 1 hour after ROSC correlated with lower 72-hour survival. Further studies are required to validate this finding and demonstrate the value of a quantitative NR2-ab assay and its optimal time of measurement. PMID:26495391

  2. Predictive Value of Somatosensory Evoked Potential Monitoring during Resection of Intraparenchymal and Intraventricular Tumors Using an Endoscopic Port

    PubMed Central

    Lai, Daniel; Engh, Jonathan; Habeych, Miguel; Crammond, Donald; Balzer, Jeffrey

    2013-01-01

    Background and Purpose Intraoperative neurophysiological monitoring (IONM) using upper and lower somatosensory evoked potentials (SSEPs) is an established technique used to predict and prevent neurologic injury during intracranial tumor resections. Endoscopic port surgery (EPS) is a minimally-invasive approach to deep intraparenchymal and intraventricular brain tumors. The authors intended to evaluate the predictive value of SSEP monitoring during resection of intracranial brain tumors using a parallel endoscopic technique. Methods A retrospective review was conducted of patients operated on from 2007-2010 utilizing IONM in whom endoscopic ports were used to remove either intraparenchymal or intraventricular tumors. Cases were eligible for review if an endoscopic port was used to resect an intracranial tumor and the electronic chart included all intraoperative monitoring data as well as pre- and post-operative neurologic exams. Results 139 EPS cases met criteria for inclusion. Eighty five patients (61%) had intraparenchymal and fifty four (39%) had intraventricular tumors or colloid cysts. SSEP changes were seen in eleven cases (7.9%), being irreversible in three (2.2%) and reversible in eight cases (5.8%). Seven patients (5.0%) with intraparenchymal tumors had SSEP changes which met our criterea for significant changes while there were four (2.9%) with intraventricular (p-value=0.25). Five patients suffered post operative deficits, two reversible and two irreversible SSEP changes. Only one case exhibited post operative hemiparesis with no SSEP changes. The positive predictive value of SSEP was 45.4% and the negative predictive value was 99.2%. Conclusions Based on the high negative and low positive predictive values, the utility of SSEP monitoring for cylindrical port resections may be limited. However, the use of SSEP monitoring can be helpful in reducing the impact of endoscopic port manipulation when the tumor is closer to the somatosensory pathway. PMID

  3. K-Ras Mutations in Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer: Prognostic and Predictive Value

    PubMed Central

    D'Arcangelo, Manolo; Cappuzzo, Federico

    2012-01-01

    Non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is a heterogeneous disease due to the presence of different clinically relevant molecular subtypes. Until today, several biological events have been identified in lung adenocarcinoma, including epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutations and anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK) translocations, offering new hopes to patients with metastatic disease. Unfortunately, in approximately 50% of adenocarcinoma and for those harbouring K-RAS mutations, the most frequent mutation in Caucasian lung adenocarcinoma, so far no specific drug demonstrated efficacy. The rat sarcoma (RAS) genes, including H-RAS, K-RAS, and N-RAS, encode a family of proteins regulating cell growth, differentiation, and apoptosis. K-RAS mutations are present in 20–30% of NSCLC and occur most commonly, but not exclusively, in adenocarcinoma histology and life-long smokers. Although in colorectal cancer patients K-RAS mutations represent a validated negative predictive biomarker for treatment with anti-EGFR monoclonal antibodies, their role in selecting specific treatment for NSCLC patients remains undefined. Aim of the present paper is to critically analyze the prognostic and predictive value of K-RAS mutations in NSCLC.

  4. Harsh Parenting and Fearfulness in Toddlerhood Interact to Predict Amplitudes of Preschool Error-Related Negativity

    PubMed Central

    Brooker, Rebecca J.; Buss, Kristin A.

    2014-01-01

    Temperamentally fearful children are at increased risk for the development of anxiety problems relative to less-fearful children. This risk is even greater when early environments include high levels of harsh parenting behaviors. However, the mechanisms by which harsh parenting may impact fearful children’s risk for anxiety problems are largely unknown. Recent neuroscience work has suggested that punishment is associated with exaggerated error-related negativity (ERN), an event-related potential linked to performance monitoring, even after the threat of punishment is removed. In the current study, we examined the possibility that harsh parenting interacts with fearfulness, impacting anxiety risk via neural processes of performance monitoring. We found that greater fearfulness and harsher parenting at 2 years of age predicted greater fearfulness and greater ERN amplitudes at age 4. Supporting the role of cognitive processes in this association, greater fearfulness and harsher parenting also predicted less efficient neural processing during preschool. This study provides initial evidence that performance monitoring may be a candidate process by which early parenting interacts with fearfulness to predict risk for anxiety problems. PMID:24721466

  5. The predictive value of core antigen testing for the management of hepatitis C patients receiving pegylated interferon/ribavirin treatment.

    PubMed

    Pradat, Pierre; Maynard, Marianne; Buti, Maria; Berthillon, Pascale; Picchio, Gaston; Tillmann, Hans L; Wiegand, Johannes; Voirin, Nicolas; Manns, Michael P; Esteban, Juan-Ignacio; Martinot, Michèle; Marcellin, Patrick; Trepo, Christian

    2004-07-01

    A new quantitative marker of HCV viremia based on the detection of the core antigen of the virus has recently become commercially available in Europe. The usefulness of this test was examined for the management of patients treated with pegylated interferon/ribavirin. One hundred twenty-eight pegylated interferon/ribavirin treated patients were studied. Serum samples were available at baseline, week 4 and week 12 time-points, respectively. Core antigen was quantified using the trak-C assay (Ortho Clinical Diagnostics, Raritan, NJ). For all genotypes at week 4, the positive and negative predictive values of HCV core antigen were 81.4 and 92.9%, respectively, while at week 12 they were 67.9 and 100%, respectively. These predictive values varied substantially according to viral genotype. Among patients with a negative core antigen level (<1.5 pg/ml) at week 12, only 33% of those who were positive at week 4 achieved a sustained virological response whereas 85% of those who were already negative did (P < 0.001). The core antigen assay may be used at week 4 and week 12 to distinguish patients who will achieve a sustained virological response from those who will relapse/breakthrough. This assay is a new reliable alternative for early prediction of virological non-response in patients treated with pegylated interferon/ribavirin. PMID:15170634

  6. Prognostic value of FDG PET/CT-based metabolic tumor volumes in metastatic triple negative breast cancer patients

    PubMed Central

    Marinelli, Brett; Espinet-Col, Carina; Ulaner, Gary A; McArthur, Heather L; Gonen, Mithat; Jochelson, Maxine; Weber, Wolfgang A

    2016-01-01

    FDG PET/CT-based measures of tumor burden show promise to predict survival in patients with metastatic breast cancer, but the patient populations studied so far are heterogeneous. The reports may have been confounded by the markedly different prognosis of the various subtypes of breast cancer. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the correlation between tumor burden on FDG PET/CT and overall survival (OS) in patients within a defined population: metastatic triple negative breast cancer (MTNBC). FDG PET/CT scans of 47 consecutive MTNBC patients (54±12 years-old) with no other known malignancies were analyzed. A total 393 lesions were identified, and maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax), mean SUV, metabolic tumor volume (MTV), total lesion number (TLN) and total lesion glycolysis (TLG), were measured and correlated with patient survival by Mantel-Cox tests and Cox regression analysis. At a median follow-up time of 12.4 months, 41 patients died with a median OS of 12.1 months. Patients with MTV less than 51.5 ml lived nearly three times longer (22 vs 7.1 months) than those with a higher MTV (χ2=21.3, P<0.0001). In a multivariate Cox regression analysis only TLN and MTV were significantly correlated with survival. Those with an MTV burden in the 75th percentile versus the 25th percentile had a hazard ratio of 6.94 (p=0.001). In patients with MTNBC, MTV appears to be a strong prognostic factor. If validated in prospective studies, MTV may be a valuable tool for risk stratification of MTNBC patients in clinical trials and to guide patient management. PMID:27186439

  7. Predictive value of procalcitonin decrease in patients with severe sepsis: a prospective observational study

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Introduction This prospective study investigated the predictive value of procalcitonin (PCT) for survival in 242 adult patients with severe sepsis and septic shock treated in intensive care. Methods PCT was analyzed from blood samples of all patients at baseline, and 155 patients 72 hours later. Results The median PCT serum concentration on day 0 was 5.0 ng/ml (interquartile range (IQR) 1.0 and 20.1 ng/ml) and 1.3 ng/ml (IQR 0.5 and 5.8 ng/ml) 72 hours later. Hospital mortality was 25.6% (62/242). Median PCT concentrations in patients with community-acquired infections were higher than with nosocomial infections (P = 0.001). Blood cultures were positive in 28.5% of patients (n = 69), and severe sepsis with positive blood cultures was associated with higher PCT levels than with negative cultures (P = < 0.001). Patients with septic shock had higher PCT concentrations than patients without (P = 0.02). PCT concentrations did not differ between hospital survivors and nonsurvivors (P = 0.64 and P = 0.99, respectively), but mortality was lower in patients whose PCT concentration decreased > 50% (by 72 hours) compared to those with a < 50% decrease (12.2% vs. 29.8%, P = 0.007). Conclusions PCT concentrations were higher in more severe forms of severe sepsis, but a substantial concentration decrease was more important for survival than absolute values. PMID:21078153

  8. Criterion-based Screening for Sexually Transmitted Infection: Sensitivity, Specificity, and Predictive Values of Commonly Used Questions

    PubMed Central

    Murphy, Patricia; Jacobson, Janet; Turok, David K.

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Practice protocols that mandate prescreening for sexually transmitted infection prior to insertion of an intrauterine device for contraception can pose obstacles for women seeking this highly effective method of birth control. Some practices screen for presumed risk factors for sexually transmitted infection in order to identify those who may be infected or those in whom laboratory testing should be obtained. The value of such criterion-based screening is unclear. Methods Data from a prospective observational trial of offering the copper intrauterine device for emergency contraception were used to assess the value of several screening questions in predicting the presence of sexually transmitted infection. Criteria evaluated were age under 25 years, history of a sexually transmitted infection, and having 2 or more sexual partners in the previous 3 months. The sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratio of both positive and negative test results and positive and negative predictive values were calculated for 3 separate questions as well as for combinations of these 3 questions. Results There were 197 women who received a copper intrauterine device for emergency contraception at the same time they were tested for sexually transmitted infection. In this sample, there were 8 cases of Chlamydia trachomatis identified and no cases of Neisseria gonorrhoeae. The sensitivity of individual and combined questions in identifying those who were infected ranged from 0% to 88%; specificity ranged from 37% to 97%. The positive predictive values for single or combined screening questions were in the range of 4% to 6%. Likelihood ratios for both positive and negative test results did not change posttest likelihood of disease in any appreciable way. Discussion Standard screening questions used to identify sexually transmitted infection risk could presume infection in large numbers of uninfected women and are of little value in identifying the women who are truly

  9. Virtual World Currency Value Fluctuation Prediction System Based on User Sentiment Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Young Bin; Lee, Sang Hyeok; Kang, Shin Jin; Choi, Myung Jin; Lee, Jung; Kim, Chang Hun

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we present a method for predicting the value of virtual currencies used in virtual gaming environments that support multiple users, such as massively multiplayer online role-playing games (MMORPGs). Predicting virtual currency values in a virtual gaming environment has rarely been explored; it is difficult to apply real-world methods for predicting fluctuating currency values or shares to the virtual gaming world on account of differences in domains between the two worlds. To address this issue, we herein predict virtual currency value fluctuations by collecting user opinion data from a virtual community and analyzing user sentiments or emotions from the opinion data. The proposed method is straightforward and applicable to predicting virtual currencies as well as to gaming environments, including MMORPGs. We test the proposed method using large-scale MMORPGs and demonstrate that virtual currencies can be effectively and efficiently predicted with it. PMID:26241496

  10. Predictive Models of Alcohol Use Based on Attitudes and Individual Values

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Del Castillo Rodríguez, José A. García; López-Sánchez, Carmen; Soler, M. Carmen Quiles; Del Castillo-López, Álvaro García; Pertusa, Mónica Gázquez; Campos, Juan Carlos Marzo; Inglés, Cándido J.

    2013-01-01

    Two predictive models are developed in this article: the first is designed to predict people' attitudes to alcoholic drinks, while the second sets out to predict the use of alcohol in relation to selected individual values. University students (N = 1,500) were recruited through stratified sampling based on sex and academic discipline. The…

  11. Prediction of delayed treatment response in pulmonary tuberculosis: use of time to positivity values of Bactec cultures.

    PubMed

    Carroll, N M; Uys, P; Hesseling, A; Lawrence, K; Pheiffer, C; Salker, F; Duncan, K; Beyers, N; van Helden, P D

    2008-11-01

    New drugs that can shorten tuberculosis (TB) treatment and target drug resistant strains are urgently needed. A test which could predict patients at risk of a delayed response to treatment would facilitate clinical trials of new anti-tuberculosis drugs. A widely-used test for the assessment of response to treatment is sputum smear examination. Patients who are smear positive after 2 and 3 months of treatment are said to have delayed and significantly delayed treatment responses respectively. Time to positivity (TTP) values of Bactec cultures, from the first 2 weeks of treatment were used to predict delayed and significantly delayed treatment responses in patients with first time pulmonary tuberculosis. Changes in TTP values early in treatment were transformed to a response ratio (r). Values of r that were less than a threshold value (r(c)) indicated patients who were at risk of having delayed or significantly delayed response to treatment. Accuracy of prediction was sensitive to the timing of sputum sampling and adherence to therapy in the first 2 weeks. Based on TTP data from the first 2 weeks of treatment, significantly delayed treatment response could be predicted with a sensitivity of 75% and a specificity of 62% while the positive (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV) were 14% and 97% respectively. While the high NPV indicates that a large proportion of patients with a satisfactory response to treatment can be reliably identified, the low PPV value underlines the need to use TTP in conjunction with other markers of disease activity to predict unfavourable treatment response in tuberculosis treatment. PMID:18456556

  12. Inter-individual differences in the experience of negative emotion predict variations in functional brain architecture.

    PubMed

    Petrican, Raluca; Saverino, Cristina; Shayna Rosenbaum, R; Grady, Cheryl

    2015-12-01

    Current evidence suggests that two spatially distinct neuroanatomical networks, the dorsal attention network (DAN) and the default mode network (DMN), support externally and internally oriented cognition, respectively, and are functionally regulated by a third, frontoparietal control network (FPC). Interactions among these networks contribute to normal variations in cognitive functioning and to the aberrant affective profiles present in certain clinical conditions, such as major depression. Nevertheless, their links to non-clinical variations in affective functioning are still poorly understood. To address this issue, we used fMRI to measure the intrinsic functional interactions among these networks in a sample of predominantly younger women (N=162) from the Human Connectome Project. Consistent with the previously documented dichotomous motivational orientations (i.e., withdrawal versus approach) associated with sadness versus anger, we hypothesized that greater sadness would predict greater DMN (rather than DAN) functional dominance, whereas greater anger would predict the opposite. Overall, there was evidence of greater DAN (rather than DMN) functional dominance, but this pattern was modulated by current experience of specific negative emotions, as well as subclinical depressive and anxiety symptoms. Thus, greater levels of currently experienced sadness and subclinical depression independently predicted weaker DAN functional dominance (i.e., weaker DAN-FPC functional connectivity), likely reflecting reduced goal-directed attention towards the external perceptual environment. Complementarily, greater levels of currently experienced anger and subclinical anxiety predicted greater DAN functional dominance (i.e., greater DAN-FPC functional connectivity and, for anxiety only, also weaker DMN-FPC coupling). Our findings suggest that distinct affective states and subclinical mood symptoms have dissociable neural signatures, reflective of the symbiotic relationship

  13. Predictability influences whether outcomes are processed in terms of original or relative values.

    PubMed

    Zeng, Jianmin; Cao, Zhipeng; Huang, Jiajin; Hitchman, Glenn; Zhang, Qinglin

    2014-10-01

    Previous studies have provided insights into the representations of original and relative values and the influence of predictability on decision making. However, whether the predictability of outcomes can influence the processing manner of outcomes (i.e. whether the outcomes are processed in terms of original or relative values) is still unknown. To investigate this issue, we had participants perform a monetary decision task which resulted in two outcomes with the same relative values but different original values in either a predictable or unpredictable condition, while recording event-related potentials (ERP). ERP results showed that the outcome processing in the unpredictable condition elicited more positive deflections in the time window of 300-500ms (P300) than did those in the predictable condition. More importantly, the outcome with high original value elicited a greater P300 component than did that with low original value in the unpredictable condition even though these two outcomes had the same relative values, while in the predictable condition no significant difference was observed between ERPs elicited by the two outcomes even though their original values were different. These results suggest that the outcomes might be processed in terms of relative values in the predictable condition but original values in the unpredictable condition. PMID:24905428

  14. Diabetic foot wounds: the value of negative pressure wound therapy with instillation.

    PubMed

    Dalla Paola, Luca

    2013-12-01

    Chronic wounds such as diabetic foot wounds are a tremendous burden to the health care system and often require a multidisciplinary approach to prevent amputations. Advanced technologies such as negative pressure wound therapy (NPWT) and bioengineered tissues have been successfully used in the treatment of these types of complex wounds. However, the introduction of NPWT with instillation (NPWTi) has provided an alternative treatment for treating complex and difficult-to-heal wounds. This article provides an overview of NPWT and the new NPWTi system and describes preliminary experience using NPWTi on patients with complicated infected diabetic foot wounds after surgical debridement and in a multidisciplinary setting. PMID:24251841

  15. High-density lipoprotein cholesterol values independently and inversely predict cardiac troponin T and I concentration

    PubMed Central

    Lo Cascio, Claudia; Brocco, Giorgio; Danese, Elisa; Montagnana, Martina; Bassi, Antonella; Caruso, Beatrice; Bovo, Chiara; Salvagno, Gian Luca

    2016-01-01

    Background This retrospective study was planned to establish potential associations between circulating values of cardiac troponins and those of conventional blood lipids. Methods The study population consisted of patients attending an inpatient clinic of the University Hospital of Verona during the year 2015 as part of routine cardiovascular risk assessment. No exclusion criteria were applied. Serum lipids including total cholesterol (TC), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and triglycerides (TG) were measured using reference enzymatic techniques, whereas troponin T (TnT) was measured using a high-sensitivity (HS) immunoassay. A second analysis was also performed in the General Hospital of Verona, extracting data from the local laboratory database of all patients in whom troponin I (TnI) and blood lipids were simultaneously measured during the same year. Results In univariate analysis, HS-TnT was found to be associated with age, sex, TC, LDL-C, HDL-C, but not with TG. In multivariate linear regression analysis, age (positive correlation; P<0.001) and HDL-C (negative correlation; P=0.032) remained significantly associated with HS-TnT. The frequency of HS-TnT values >50 ng/L was higher in subjects with HDL-C <1 mmol/L than in those with HDL-C ≥1 mmol/L [odds ratio (OR), 1.84; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.03–3.32]. The frequency of HS-TnT values >50 ng/L was also higher in elderly subjects than in younger ones (OR, 2.10; 95% CI, 1.15–3.84). The combination of age and HDL-C explained 35% of overall variability of TnT concentration. In the second analysis, HDL-C was also found to be an independent and negative predictor of TnI in multivariate linear regression analysis (P=0.010). The combination of age and HDL-C explained approximately 28% of the overall variability of TnI concentration. Conclusions Our study suggests that HDL-C values inversely predict cardiac troponins concentration irrespective of age

  16. Negative Ion Photoelectron Spectroscopy Confirms the Prediction that (CO)5 and (CO)6 Each Has a Singlet Ground State

    SciTech Connect

    Bao, Xiaoguang; Hrovat, David; Borden, Weston; Wang, Xue B.

    2013-03-20

    Cyclobutane-1,2,3,4-tetraone has been both predicted and found to have a triplet ground state, in which a b2g MO and an a2u MO is each singly occupied. In contrast, (CO)5 and (CO)6 have each been predicted to have a singlet ground state. This prediction has been tested by generating the (CO)5 - and (CO)6 - anions in the gas-phase by electrospray vaporization of solutions of, respectively, the croconate (CO)52- and rhodizonate (CO)62- dianions. The negative ion photoelectron (NIPE) spectra of the (CO)5•- radical anion give electron affinity (EA) = 3.830 eV and a singlet ground state for (CO)5, with the triplet higher in energy by 0.850 eV (19.6 kcal/mol). The NIPE spectra of the (CO)6•- radical anion give EA = 3.785 eV and a singlet ground state for (CO)6, with the triplet higher in energy by 0.915 eV (21.1 kcal/mol). (RO)CCSD(T)/aug-cc-pVTZ//(U)B3LYP/6-311+G(2df) calculations give EA values that are only ca. 1 kcal/mol lower than those measured and EST values that are only 2 - 3 kcal/mol higher than those obtained from the NIPE spectra. Thus, the calculations support the interpretations of the NIPE spectra and the finding, based on the spectra, that (CO)5 and (CO)6 both have a singlet ground state.

  17. The Positive Predictive Value of Lyme Elisa for the Diagnosis of Lyme Disease in Children.

    PubMed

    Lipsett, Susan C; Pollock, Nira R; Branda, John A; Gordon, Caroline D; Gordon, Catherine R; Lantos, Paul M; Nigrovic, Lise E

    2015-11-01

    By using a Lyme enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), we demonstrated that high ELISA index values are strongly predictive of Lyme disease. In children with clinical presentations consistent with Lyme disease, ELISA index values ≥3.0 had a positive predictive value of 99.4% (95% confidence interval: 98.1-99.8%) for Lyme disease, making a supplemental Western immunoblot potentially unnecessary. PMID:26222064

  18. Methylome sequencing in triple-negative breast cancer reveals distinct methylation clusters with prognostic value.

    PubMed

    Stirzaker, Clare; Zotenko, Elena; Song, Jenny Z; Qu, Wenjia; Nair, Shalima S; Locke, Warwick J; Stone, Andrew; Armstong, Nicola J; Robinson, Mark D; Dobrovic, Alexander; Avery-Kiejda, Kelly A; Peters, Kate M; French, Juliet D; Stein, Sandra; Korbie, Darren J; Trau, Matt; Forbes, John F; Scott, Rodney J; Brown, Melissa A; Francis, Glenn D; Clark, Susan J

    2015-01-01

    Epigenetic alterations in the cancer methylome are common in breast cancer and provide novel options for tumour stratification. Here, we perform whole-genome methylation capture sequencing on small amounts of DNA isolated from formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue from triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) and matched normal samples. We identify differentially methylated regions (DMRs) enriched with promoters associated with transcription factor binding sites and DNA hypersensitive sites. Importantly, we stratify TNBCs into three distinct methylation clusters associated with better or worse prognosis and identify 17 DMRs that show a strong association with overall survival, including DMRs located in the Wilms tumour 1 (WT1) gene, bi-directional-promoter and antisense WT1-AS. Our data reveal that coordinated hypermethylation can occur in oestrogen receptor-negative disease, and that characterizing the epigenetic framework provides a potential signature to stratify TNBCs. Together, our findings demonstrate the feasibility of profiling the cancer methylome with limited archival tissue to identify regulatory regions associated with cancer. PMID:25641231

  19. Prediction of psychopathology and functional impairment by positive and negative schizotypy in the Chapmans' ten-year longitudinal study.

    PubMed

    Kwapil, Thomas R; Gross, Georgina M; Silvia, Paul J; Barrantes-Vidal, Neus

    2013-08-01

    The present study examined the predictive validity of psychometrically assessed positive and negative schizotypy in the Chapmans' 10-year longitudinal data set. Schizotypy provides a useful construct for understanding the etiology and development of schizophrenia and related disorders. Schizotypy and schizophrenia share a common multidimensional structure that includes positive and negative symptom dimensions. Recent cross-sectional studies have supported the validity of psychometric positive and negative schizotypy; however, the present study is the first to examine the predictive validity of these dimensions. The Chapmans' longitudinal data provided an ideal opportunity because of the large sample size, high reassessment rate, and extended interval between assessments. A total of 534 psychometric high-risk and control participants were initially assessed, and 95% of this sample was reinterviewed 10 years later. As hypothesized, positive and negative schizotypy uniquely predicted the development of schizophrenia-spectrum disorders. At the reassessment, both positive and negative schizotypy predicted psychotic-like, schizotypal, and paranoid symptoms, as well as poorer adjustment. The positive dimension was associated with mood and substance use disorders and mental health treatment. Negative schizotypy was associated with schizoid symptoms and social impairment at the follow-up. The results extend the growing validity findings for psychometrically assessed positive and negative schizotypy by demonstrating that they are associated with the development of differential patterns of symptoms and impairment. PMID:24016018

  20. Value of Superficial Cultures for Prediction of Catheter-Related Bloodstream Infection in Long-Term Catheters: a Prospective Study

    PubMed Central

    Martín-Rabadán, P.; Echenagusia, A.; Camúñez, F.; Rodríguez-Rosales, G.; Simó, G.; Echenagusia, M.; Bouza, E.

    2013-01-01

    Cultures taken from the skin and from the hubs of short-term central venous catheters can help us to predict catheter-related bloodstream infections (C-RBSIs). The value of these cultures for such predictions has not been assessed in long-term catheters. Our objective was to assess the value of superficial cultures for the prediction of C-RBSI among patients with long-term catheters. Over a 2-year period, we prospectively obtained cultures from the skin overlying reservoir ports (group A) and from the skin insertion site and hubs of all tunneled catheters (group B). This routine was performed by vascular and interventional radiologists immediately before catheter removal (irrespective of the reason for withdrawal). Swabs were processed semiquantitatively. Catheter tips from both groups were cultured using Maki's semiquantitative technique and sonication. We also performed cultures of the reservoir ports at different sites. C-RBSI was defined as the isolation of the same species of microorganism(s) both in the colonized catheter and in at least 1 peripheral blood culture. We included 372 catheters (group A, 223; group B, 149) during the study period. The catheter colonization rate was 23.4% (87/372), and 28 patients had C-RBSI. Validity index values for the capacity of surface cultures to predict C-RBSI in groups A and B were, respectively, as follows: sensitivity, 23.5% and 45.5%; specificity, 59.7% and 63.0%; positive predictive value, 4.6% and 8.9%; and negative predictive value, 90.4% and 93.5%. Superficial cultures of patients with long-term catheters could help us to rule out the catheter as the portal of entry of bloodstream infections. Superficial cultures (from skin and hubs) proved to be a useful conservative diagnostic tool for ruling out C-RBSI among patients with long-term tunneled catheters and totally implantable venous access ports. PMID:23850957

  1. Value attainment: an explanation for the negative effects of work-family conflict on job and life satisfaction.

    PubMed

    Perrewé, P L; Hochwarter, W A; Kiewitz, C

    1999-10-01

    Perceptions of work interfering with family life and family issues interfering with work are examined as 2 distinct constructs representing work-family conflict. Experienced work-family conflict is argued to reduce one's value attainment which, in turn, lowers both job and life satisfaction. This study examines value attainment as a mediating variable in the work-family conflict and satisfaction relationship. Responses from 270 hotel managers indicate that value attainment either partially or fully mediates the relationship between work interference with family and family interference with work and both job and life satisfaction. Value attainment is argued to be a meaningful explanatory variable for the negative relationship between work-family conflict and job-life satisfaction. PMID:10526836

  2. Sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of immunochromatographic strip test in diagnosis of childhood kala-azar.

    PubMed

    Rouf, M A; Rahman, M E; Islam, M N; Islam, M N; Ferdous, N N; Hossain, M A

    2009-01-01

    In Bangladesh, the total population at risk for kala-azar exceeds 20 million (18%) living in 88 Thana (19%) of 27 districts (42%). A confirmatory diagnosis of visceral leishmaniasis (kala-azar) is done by demonstration of the parasite (LD body) in organ aspirates or tissue biopsy sample, an invasive procedure with relatively low sensitivity. To assess the diagnostic usefulness of ICT for antibody against the leishmanial antigen rK39 & its feasibility for use under field conditions (rural areas). An experimental study conducted during January, 2003 to July, 2003 in pediatrics department of MMCH including 60 confirmedly diagnosed KA cases & 60 controls having diseases other than KA. One drop of peripheral blood is applied to the nitrocellulose strip & 3 drops of test buffer is added to the dried blood. Observing 2 visible bands indicates presence of IgG anti-K39. The rK39 strip test was positive in 57 out of 60 confirmed KA case diagnosed by LD body demonstration in splenic or bone marrow aspirate. The estimated sensitivity was 95%. One control diagnosed as other than KA had positive strip test but negative aspirate smear. The estimated specificity of the strip test was 98.3%. The predictive value of a positive result is 98.3% & that of a negative result is 93.5%. rK39 strip test is highly sensitive & specific in our situation & it can be used as a simple & the best method for diagnosis of KA in rural areas. PMID:19377416

  3. The hotelling principle and in-ground values of oil reserves: Why the principle over-predicts actual values

    SciTech Connect

    McDonald, S.L.

    1994-12-31

    Two articles previously published in this Journal reported that the valuation version of the Hotelling Principle over-predicts in-ground values of oil and gas reserves by a factor of approximately two. This paper shows these results are to be expected once it is understood that: (1) the Principle assumes individual operators have the effective freedom to schedule extraction rates so as to make net prices rise at the rate of discount, regardless of the course of gross (wellhead) prices; and (2) the long-prevailing system of regulating oil well spacing and extraction rates in the United States and Canada, designed to deal with the common pool problem, effectively denies operators that freedom. The discrepancy between actual in-ground values and those predicted by the Hotelling Principle suggests the benefits to be had by substituting compulsory reservoir unitization cum manager freedom for the current system of regulation.10 refs., 1 tab., 1 fig.

  4. Predictive value of epigenetic alterations in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Koffler, Jennifer; Sharma, Sarika; Hess, Jochen

    2014-01-01

    Head and neck cancer collectively describes malignant tumors originating from the mucosal surface of the upper aerodigestive tract. These tumors pose a great threat to public health because of their high incidence and mortality. Traditional risk factors are tobacco and alcohol abuse. More recently, infection by high-risk types of human papilloma virus (HPV) has been identified as an additional risk factor, especially for oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC). Moreover, HPV-positive OPSCC is considered a distinct tumor entity with an improved clinical outcome compared to HPV-negative OPSCC. Epigenetic alterations act as key events in the pathogenesis of cancer and are of special interest for basic and translational oncology because of their reversible nature. This review provides a comprehensive summary of alterations of the epigenome in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) with a focus on the methylome (hypomethylation and hypermethylation) and its predictive value in the evaluation of pathologic states and clinical outcome, or monitoring response rates to certain therapies. PMID:27308324

  5. The prognostic value of BRCA1 promoter methylation in early stage triple negative breast cancer

    PubMed Central

    Kimler, Bruce F.; Sethi, Geetika; Petroff, Brian K.; Phillips, Teresa A.; Tawfik, Ossama W.; Godwin, Andrew K.; Jensen, Roy A.

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Methylation of the BRCA1 promoter is frequent in triple negative breast cancers (TNBC) and results in a tumor phenotype similar to BRCA1-mutated tumors. BRCA1 mutation-associated cancers are more sensitive to DNA damaging agents as compared to conventional chemotherapy agents. It is not known if there is an interaction between the presence of BRCA1 promoter methylation (PM) and response to chemotherapy agents in sporadic TNBC. We sought to investigate the prognostic significance of BRCA1 PM in TNBC patients receiving standard chemotherapy. Methods Subjects with stage I-III TNBC treated with chemotherapy were identified and their formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tumor specimens retrieved. Genomic DNA was isolated and subjected to methylation-specific PCR (MSPCR). Results DNA was isolated from primary tumor of 39 subjects. BRCA1 PM was detected in 30% of patients. Presence of BRCA1 PM was associated with lower BRCA1 transcript levels, suggesting epigenetic BRCA1 silencing. All patients received chemotherapy (anthracycline:90%, taxane:69%). At a median follow-up of 64 months, 46% of patients have recurred and 36% have died. On univariate analysis, African-American race, node positivity, stage, and BRCA1 PM were associated with worse RFS and OS. Five year OS was 36% for patients with BRCA1 PM vs. 77% for patients without BRCA1 PM (p=0.004). On multivariable analysis, BRCA1 PM was associated with significantly worse RFS and OS. Conclusions We show that BRCA1 PM is common in TNBC and has the potential to identify a significant fraction of TNBC patients who have suboptimal outcomes with standard chemotherapy. PMID:25177489

  6. Predicting the heating value of MSW with a feed forward neural network

    SciTech Connect

    Dong Changqing; Jin Baosheng; Li Daji

    2003-07-01

    The influence of the heating value of municipal solid waste (MSW) is very important on the combustion efficiency of MSW incinerators. The heating value of MSW is determined by the elementary chemical composition of its various components. Commonly, calorimetric measurement and empirical methods are available for this determination. In this analysis, the relationship between the physical composition and the low heating value (LHV) was studied. A feed forward neural network (FFNN) can be very helpful in predicting the heating value of MSW from its physical composition. The results of this analysis show that the prediction of LHV of MSW with FFNN is much better than conventional models.

  7. Negative Social Relationships Predict Posttraumatic Stress Symptoms Among War-Affected Children Via Posttraumatic Cognitions.

    PubMed

    Palosaari, Esa; Punamäki, Raija-Leena; Peltonen, Kirsi; Diab, Marwan; Qouta, Samir R

    2016-07-01

    Post traumatic cognitions (PTCs) are important determinants of post traumatic stress symptoms (PTS symptoms). We tested whether risk factors of PTS symptoms (trauma, demographics, social and family-related factors) predict PTCs and whether PTCs mediate the association between risk factors and PTS symptoms among war-affected children. The participants were 240 Palestinian children 10-12 years old, half boys and half girls, and their parents. Children reported about psychological maltreatment, sibling and peer relations, war trauma, PTCs, PTS symptoms, and depression. Parents reported about their socioeconomic status and their own PTS symptoms. The associations between the variables were estimated in structural equation models. In models which included all the variables, PTCs were predicted by and mediated the effects of psychological maltreatment, war trauma, sibling conflict, and peer unpopularity on PTS symptoms. Other predictors had statistically non-significant effects. Psychological maltreatment had the largest indirect effect (b* = 0.29, p = 0.002) and the indirect effects of war trauma (b* = 0.10, p = 0.045), sibling conflict (b* = 0.10, p = 0.045), and peer unpopularity (b* = 0.10, p = 0.094) were lower and about the same size. Age-salient social relationships are potentially important in the development of both PTCs and PTS symptoms among preadolescents. Furthermore, PTCs mediate the effects of the risk factors of PTS symptoms. The causality of the associations among the variables is not established but it could be studied in the future with interventions which improve the negative aspects of traumatized children's important social relationships. PMID:26362037

  8. The predictive value of kidney biopsy in renal vasculitis: a multicenter cohort study.

    PubMed

    Diaz-Crespo, Francisco; Villacorta, Javier; Acevedo, Mercedes; Cavero, Teresa; Guerrero, Carmen; García Díaz, Eugenio; Orradre, Juan Luis; Martinez, Miguel Angel; Praga, Manuel; Fernandez-Juarez, Gema

    2016-06-01

    The histopathologic classification of antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-associated vasculitis has been demonstrated to have prognostic value in small cohorts of patients with pauci-immune extracapillary glomerulonephritis. We aimed to validate this histologic subgrouping system in a large cohort of patients with renal vasculitis from 3 Spanish centers. The additional value of several histologic parameters for predicting renal outcome was investigated. A total of 151 biopsies of patients with renal vasculitis were reviewed and classified as follows: 41% crescentic, 24% mixed, 21% focal, and 14% sclerotic. The cumulative proportions of renal survival at 5 years were 83.2%, 81.2%, 60.5%, and 50.7% for the focal, mixed, crescentic, and sclerotic categories, respectively (P < .05). In the crescentic category, patients with less than 75% of glomeruli showing crescents had better survival at 1 and 5 years compared with those having greater than or equal to 75% of crescents (77.9% and 70.6% versus 51.3% and 45.6%; P = .02). When adjusted by renal function and other histologic parameters, the percentage of extracapillary proliferation and glomerulosclerosis remained as significant predictors for renal survival (hazard ratio, 1.03; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.05; P = .001, and hazard ratio, 1.03; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.05; P = .002, respectively). In conclusion, patients with pauci-immune crescentic glomerulonephritis experienced different outcomes depending on the percentage of crescents observed, so that extensive extracapillary proliferation was associated with the poorest renal survival. These findings validate the prognostic utility of the histologic classification scheme in antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody positive and negative patients and suggest a subdivision of crescentic category (<75% and ≥75% of crescents) based on the different survival rates observed among these subgroups. PMID:26980047

  9. The clinical and predictive value of the initial dream of treatment.

    PubMed

    Glucksman, Myron L; Kramer, Milton

    2011-01-01

    The authors collected the initial dreams of treatment from 63 patients and independently evaluated the manifest dream report (MDR). Variables included: Affect and Valence of Affect; Associations; Psychodynamic Theme; Psychodynamic Theme as Predictor of Core Psychodynamic Issues; Transference; Gender; Psychodynamic Theme Categories; Clinical Progress in relation to Psychodynamic Theme Categories and Transference. The initial MDR invariably contains Affect that is frequently Negative. The Psychodynamic Themes of MDRs are dependable predictors of Core Psychodynamic Issues that emerge during treatment. Transference is evident in a significant number of MDRs and is often Negative. Gender of the majority of MDRs is predictable. The most frequent Psychodynamic Themes of initial MDRs fall into Relational and Injury Categories. Relational and Injury Themes, as well as Positive and Negative Transference, are associated with clinical progress. This study confirms that the initial MDR of treatment provides a significant amount of clinical and predictive information. PMID:21699352

  10. Supersonic intensity and non-negative intensity for prediction of radiated sound.

    PubMed

    Liu, Daipei; Peters, Herwig; Marburg, Steffen; Kessissoglou, Nicole

    2016-05-01

    Two numerical methods to identify the surface areas of a vibrating structure that radiate sound are presented. The supersonic intensity identifies only the supersonic wave components of the sound field contributing to far-field radiated sound. The supersonic intensity is calculated using a two-dimensional convolution between a spatial radiation filter and the sound field. To compute the spatial radiation filter, the shortest surface distance between two points on the structure is calculated using the geodesic distance method. The non-negative intensity is based on acoustic radiation modes and identifies the radiated sound power from a vibrating structure. Numerical models of a baffled plate, a cylinder and an engine crankcase are presented. The supersonic intensity is shown to be difficult to implement at low frequencies due to the size of the spatial radiation filter and accuracy of the surface distances. A cut-off coefficient associated with the acoustic wavenumber of the spatial radiation filter is used to reduce the aperture error. A comparison of the two intensity-based techniques both in terms of a sound power ratio and the modal assurance criterion is introduced to identify the optimal values of the cut-off coefficients that result in better convergence between the intensity techniques. PMID:27250172

  11. Beyond the E-Value: Stratified Statistics for Protein Domain Prediction.

    PubMed

    Ochoa, Alejandro; Storey, John D; Llinás, Manuel; Singh, Mona

    2015-11-01

    E-values have been the dominant statistic for protein sequence analysis for the past two decades: from identifying statistically significant local sequence alignments to evaluating matches to hidden Markov models describing protein domain families. Here we formally show that for "stratified" multiple hypothesis testing problems-that is, those in which statistical tests can be partitioned naturally-controlling the local False Discovery Rate (lFDR) per stratum, or partition, yields the most predictions across the data at any given threshold on the FDR or E-value over all strata combined. For the important problem of protein domain prediction, a key step in characterizing protein structure, function and evolution, we show that stratifying statistical tests by domain family yields excellent results. We develop the first FDR-estimating algorithms for domain prediction, and evaluate how well thresholds based on q-values, E-values and lFDRs perform in domain prediction using five complementary approaches for estimating empirical FDRs in this context. We show that stratified q-value thresholds substantially outperform E-values. Contradicting our theoretical results, q-values also outperform lFDRs; however, our tests reveal a small but coherent subset of domain families, biased towards models for specific repetitive patterns, for which weaknesses in random sequence models yield notably inaccurate statistical significance measures. Usage of lFDR thresholds outperform q-values for the remaining families, which have as-expected noise, suggesting that further improvements in domain predictions can be achieved with improved modeling of random sequences. Overall, our theoretical and empirical findings suggest that the use of stratified q-values and lFDRs could result in improvements in a host of structured multiple hypothesis testing problems arising in bioinformatics, including genome-wide association studies, orthology prediction, and motif scanning. PMID:26575353

  12. Infant neurological examination from 3 to 12 months: predictive value of the single items.

    PubMed

    Pizzardi, A; Romeo, D M M; Cioni, M; Romeo, M G; Guzzetta, A

    2008-12-01

    The prognostic value of the single items of a standardised neurological examination, the Hammersmith Infant Neurologic Examination (HINE), was explored longitudinally in 658 infants at 3, 6, 9 and 12 months post-term age. ROC curves were built based on the presence/absence of cerebral palsy at 2 years of age. Global HINE scores showed very high prediction (ROC curve areas above 0.9) at all ages. The items with the highest predictive value were always movement quality and quantity. In the first semester, among the most predictive items were those assessing tone, while beyond that time they were reflexes and reactions. Our results show that the high predictive value of the HINE across the first year of life is granted by the successful combination of different groups of items for each age-period. This should be recognised in clinical practice when assessing the significance of individual neurological profiles. PMID:19568999

  13. Negative relational schemas predict the trajectory of coercive dynamics during early childhood.

    PubMed

    Smith, Justin D; Dishion, Thomas J; Shaw, Daniel S; Wilson, Melvin N

    2015-05-01

    Coercive family processes are germane to the development of problem behaviors in early childhood, yet the cognitive and affective underpinnings are not well understood. We hypothesized that one antecedent of early coercive interactions is the caregiver's implicit affective attitudes toward the child, which in this article are termed relational schemas. Relational schemas have previously been linked to coercion and problem behaviors, but there has yet to be an examination of the association between relational schemas and trajectories of coercion during early childhood. We examined 731 indigent caregiver-child dyads (49 % female children) from a randomized intervention trial of the Family Check-Up. Predominantly biological mothers participated. A speech sample was used to assess relational schemas at age 2. Coercive interactions were assessed observationally each year between ages 2 and 4. Caregiver and teacher reports of children's oppositional and aggressive behaviors were collected at age 7.5 and 8.5. Path analysis revealed that negative relational schemas were associated with less steep declines in coercion during this period, which in turn were predictive of ratings of oppositional and aggressive behaviors at age 7.5/8.5 after controlling for baseline levels, positive relational schemas, child gender, ethnicity, and cumulative risk. Intervention condition assignment did not moderate this relationship, suggesting the results represent a naturally occurring process. Given the link between persistent early coercion and later deleterious outcomes, relational schemas that maintain and amplify coercive dynamics represent a potential target for early intervention programs designed to improve parent-child relationships. PMID:25208813

  14. Negative Relational Schemas Predict the Trajectory of Coercive Dynamics During Early Childhood

    PubMed Central

    Smith, Justin D.; Dishion, Thomas J.; Shaw, Daniel S.; Wilson, Melvin N.

    2014-01-01

    Coercive family processes are germane to the development of problem behaviors in early childhood, yet the cognitive and affective underpinnings are not well understood. We hypothesized that one antecedent of early coercive interactions is the caregiver’s implicit affective attitudes toward the child, which in this article are termed relational schemas. Relational schemas have previously been linked to coercion and problem behaviors, but there has yet to be an examination of the association between relational schemas and trajectories of coercion during early childhood. We examined 731 indigent caregiver-child dyads (49% female children) from a randomized intervention trial of the Family Check-Up. Predominantly biological mothers participated. A speech sample was used to assess relational schemas at age 2. Coercive interactions were assessed observationally each year between ages 2 and 4. Caregiver and teacher reports of children’s oppositional and aggressive behaviors were collected at age 7.5 and 8.5. Path analysis revealed that negative relational schemas were associated with less steep declines in coercion during this period, which in turn were predictive of ratings of oppositional and aggressive behaviors at age 7.5/8.5 after controlling for baseline levels, positive relational schemas, child gender, ethnicity, and cumulative risk. Intervention condition assignment did not moderate this relationship, suggesting the results represent a naturally occurring process. Given the link between persistent early coercion and later deleterious outcomes, relational schemas that maintain and amplify coercive dynamics represent a potential target for early intervention programs designed to improve parent–child relationships. PMID:25208813

  15. Predicting liver metastasis of gastrointestinal tract cancer by diffusion-weighted imaging of apparent diffusion coefficient values

    PubMed Central

    Zheng, De-Xian; Meng, Shu-Chun; Liu, Qing-Jun; Li, Chuan-Ting; Shang, Xi-Dan; Zhu, Yu-Seng; Bai, Tian-Jun; Xu, Shi-Ming

    2016-01-01

    AIM: To determine if efficacy of chemotherapy on liver metastasis of gastrointestinal tract cancer can be predicted by apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values of diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI). METHODS: In total, 86 patients with liver metastasis of gastrointestinal tract cancer (156 metastatic lesions) diagnosed in our hospital were included in this study. The maximum diameters of these tumors were compared with each other before treatment, 2 wk after treatment, and 12 wk after treatment. Selected patients were classified as the effective group and the ineffective group, depending on the maximum diameter of the tumor after 12 wk of treatment; and the ADC values at different treatment times between the two groups were compared. Spearman rank correlation was used to analyze the relationship between ADC value and tumor diameter. Receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve) was used to analyze the ADC values before treatment to predict the patient’s sensitivity and specificity degree of efficacy to the chemotherapy. RESULTS: There was no difference in age between the two groups and in maximum tumor diameter before treatment and 2 wk after treatment. However, after 12 wk of treatment, maximum tumor diameter in the effective group was significantly lower than that in the ineffective group (P < 0.05). Before treatment, ADC values in the ineffective group were significantly higher than those in the effective group (P < 0.05). There was no difference in ADC values between the effective and ineffective groups after 2 and 12 wk of treatment. However, ADC values were significantly higher after 2 and 12 wk of treatment compared to before treatment in the effective group (P < 0.05). Spearman rank correlation analysis showed that ADC value before treatment and the reduced percentage of the maximum tumor diameter after 12 wk of treatment were negatively correlated, while the increase in the percentage of the ADC value 12 wk after treatment and the decrease in the

  16. Predictive Value of Autoantibody Testing for Validating Self-reported Diagnoses of Rheumatoid Arthritis in the Women's Health Initiative

    PubMed Central

    Walitt, Brian; Mackey, Rachel; Kuller, Lewis; Deane, Kevin D.; Robinson, William; Holers, V. Michael; Chang, Yue-Fang; Moreland, Larry

    2013-01-01

    Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) research using large databases is limited by insufficient case validity. Of 161,808 postmenopausal women in the Women's Health Initiative, 15,691 (10.2%) reported having RA, far higher than the expected 1% population prevalence. Since chart review for confirmation of an RA diagnosis is impractical in large cohort studies, the current study (2009–2011) tested the ability of baseline serum measurements of rheumatoid factor and anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide antibodies, second-generation assay (anti-CCP2), to identify physician-validated RA among the chart-review study participants with self-reported RA (n = 286). Anti-CCP2 positivity had the highest positive predictive value (PPV) (80.0%), and rheumatoid factor positivity the lowest (44.6%). Together, use of disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs and anti-CCP2 positivity increased PPV to 100% but excluded all seronegative cases (approximately 15% of all RA cases). Case definitions inclusive of seronegative cases had PPVs between 59.6% and 63.6%. False-negative results were minimized in these test definitions, as evidenced by negative predictive values of approximately 90%. Serological measurements, particularly measurement of anti-CCP2, improved the test characteristics of RA case definitions in the Women's Health Initiative. PMID:23492764

  17. The Nature and Predictive Value of Mothers’ Beliefs Regarding Infants’ and Toddlers’ TV/Video Viewing: Applying the Integrative Model of Behavioral Prediction

    PubMed Central

    Vaala, Sarah E.

    2014-01-01

    Viewing television and video programming has become a normative behavior among US infants and toddlers. Little is understood about parents’ decision-making about the extent of their young children’s viewing, though numerous organizations are interested in reducing time spent viewing among infants and toddlers. Prior research has examined parents’ belief in the educational value of TV/videos for young children and the predictive value of this belief for understanding infant/toddler viewing rates, though other possible salient beliefs remain largely unexplored. This study employs the integrative model of behavioral prediction (Fishbein & Ajzen, 2010) to examine 30 maternal beliefs about infants’ and toddlers’ TV/video viewing which were elicited from a prior sample of mothers. Results indicate that mothers tend to hold more positive than negative beliefs about the outcomes associated with young children’s TV/video viewing, and that the nature of the aggregate set of beliefs is predictive of their general attitudes and intentions to allow their children to view, as well as children’s estimated viewing rates. Analyses also uncover multiple dimensions within the full set of beliefs, which explain more variance in mothers’ attitudes and intentions and children’s viewing than the uni-dimensional index. The theoretical and practical implications of the findings are discussed. PMID:25431537

  18. The Nature and Predictive Value of Mothers' Beliefs Regarding Infants' and Toddlers' TV/Video Viewing: Applying the Integrative Model of Behavioral Prediction.

    PubMed

    Vaala, Sarah E

    2014-01-01

    Viewing television and video programming has become a normative behavior among US infants and toddlers. Little is understood about parents' decision-making about the extent of their young children's viewing, though numerous organizations are interested in reducing time spent viewing among infants and toddlers. Prior research has examined parents' belief in the educational value of TV/videos for young children and the predictive value of this belief for understanding infant/toddler viewing rates, though other possible salient beliefs remain largely unexplored. This study employs the integrative model of behavioral prediction (Fishbein & Ajzen, 2010) to examine 30 maternal beliefs about infants' and toddlers' TV/video viewing which were elicited from a prior sample of mothers. Results indicate that mothers tend to hold more positive than negative beliefs about the outcomes associated with young children's TV/video viewing, and that the nature of the aggregate set of beliefs is predictive of their general attitudes and intentions to allow their children to view, as well as children's estimated viewing rates. Analyses also uncover multiple dimensions within the full set of beliefs, which explain more variance in mothers' attitudes and intentions and children's viewing than the uni-dimensional index. The theoretical and practical implications of the findings are discussed. PMID:25431537

  19. Positive predictive values of abused drug immunoassays on the Beckman Synchron in a veteran population.

    PubMed

    Dietzen, D J; Ecos, K; Friedman, D; Beason, S

    2001-04-01

    The pressure to reduce the cost of analytic testing makes it tempting to discontinue routine confirmation of urine specimens positive for drugs of abuse by immunoassay. Beyond the economic motivation, the requirement for confirmation should be driven by the positive predictive value of the screening tests. We have quantitated positive predictive values of our screening immunoassays in a large metropolitan Veterans Affairs Medical Center. We reviewed the confirmatory rate of urine specimens positive for drugs of abuse with Beckman Synchron reagents from June 1998 to June 1999 and tabulated the false-positive screening rate. There were 175 instances of false-positive screens during the 13 months we analyzed. Positive predictive values ranged from 0% (amphetamine) to 100% (THC). We determined that the low positive predictive value of the amphetamine assay in our laboratory was primarily due to the use of ranitidine (Zantac). Urine specimens containing greater than 43 microg/mL ranitidine were positive in our amphetamine assay. This concentration is routinely exceeded in our patients taking ranitidine. In our clinical and analytic setting, the Beckman THC assay did not require confirmation. The positive predictive values of the Beckman opiate, cocaine, barbiturate, propoxyphene, and methadone immunoassays dictate routine confirmatory testing in specimens that screen positive for these substances. Finally, because of its extreme sensitivity to ranitidine, the Beckman amphetamine assay has little utility in our laboratory setting. PMID:11327349

  20. Relational Aggression, Positive Urgency and Negative Urgency: Predicting Alcohol Use and Consequences among College Students

    PubMed Central

    Grimaldi, Elizabeth M.; Napper, Lucy E.; LaBrie, Joseph W.

    2014-01-01

    Research on relational aggression (indirect and social means of inflicting harm) has previously focused on adolescent populations. The current study extends this research by exploring both the frequency of perpetrating and being the target of relational aggression as it relates to alcohol use outcomes in a college population. Further, this study examines whether positive urgency (e.g. acting impulsively in response to positive emotions) and negative urgency (e.g., acting impulsively in response to negative emotions) moderate the relationship between relational aggression and alcohol outcomes. In this study, 245 college students (65.7% female) completed an online survey. Results indicated greater frequency of perpetrating relational aggression, higher levels of positive urgency, or higher levels of negative urgency was associated with more negative consequences. Further, negative urgency moderated the relationship between frequency of perpetrating aggression and consequences such that aggression was more strongly associated with consequences for those high in urgency. Counter to the adolescent literature, the frequency of being the target of aggression was not associated with more alcohol use. These findings suggest that perpetrators of relational aggression may be at particular risk for negative alcohol-related consequences when they act impulsively in response to negative, but not positive, emotions. These students may benefit from interventions exploring alternative ways to cope with negative emotions. PMID:25134025

  1. Prenatal Maternal Anxiety and Depression Predict Negative Behavioral Reactivity in Infancy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Davis, Elysia Poggi; Snidman, Nancy; Wadhwa, Pathik D.; Glynn, Laura M.; Schetter, Chris Dunkel; Sandman, Curt A.

    2004-01-01

    The effects of maternal antenatal and postnatal anxiety and depression on infant negative behavioral reactivity were examined in a sample of 22 mother-infant pairs. Maternal anxiety and depression were assessed by standardized measures during the third trimester of pregnancy and postpartum. Infant negative behavioral responses to novelty were…

  2. Estimating Time-Varying PCB Exposures Using Person-Specific Predictions to Supplement Measured Values: A Comparison of Observed and Predicted Values in Two Cohorts of Norwegian Women

    PubMed Central

    Nøst, Therese Haugdahl; Breivik, Knut; Wania, Frank; Rylander, Charlotta; Odland, Jon Øyvind; Sandanger, Torkjel Manning

    2015-01-01

    , Rylander C, Odland JØ, Sandanger TM. 2016. Estimating time-varying PCB exposures using person-specific predictions to supplement measured values: a comparison of observed and predicted values in two cohorts of Norwegian women. Environ Health Perspect 124:299–305; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1409191 PMID:26186800

  3. The importance of values in predicting Turkish youth's opinions about the European Union in light of the Copenhagen Political Criteria.

    PubMed

    Kuşdil, M Ersin; Simşek, Sefa

    2008-12-01

    The enlargement process of the European Union may be regarded as one of the most important social projects of human history in that it is trying to unite several nation-states under a "European identity." As a historically and culturally "distant" candidate, Turkey has been asked to meet a set of expectations referred to as the "Copenhagen Criteria," requiring a series of large-scale reforms to the infrastructure and superstructure of the country. Taking advantage of the unique opportunity to relate Turkish people's opinions on the criteria to their values, hypotheses based on Schwartz's model of values were tested. Schwartz's Personal Values Questionnaire and a questionnaire measuring opinions on the criteria and the Union were completed by 368 Turkish university students. Factor analysis of the opinion items yielded five factors: reduction of military influence in civil life, scepticism towards Europe and the European Union, improvement of human rights and liberties, improvement of minority rights, and lack of transparency in public institutions. Regression analyses showed that values and nationalism were powerful predictors of opinions whereas the effect of religiosity was limited only to the prediction of a preference for the reduction of military influence in civil life. Preference for openness to change values were successful in predicting variance in three of the five criteria: The more the participants favoured these values, the more they supported the improvement of human rights and liberties, the improvement of minority rights, and regretted the lack of transparency. Self-transcendence values were also positively related to support for the same three criteria together with a preference for reduction of military influence. As for nationalism, the results showed that this variable was related negatively to reduction of the military influence, improvement of human rights and liberties, improvement of minority rights; and positively to scepticism. PMID

  4. Evaluation of the efficiency of artificial neural networks for genetic value prediction.

    PubMed

    Silva, G N; Tomaz, R S; Sant'Anna, I C; Carneiro, V Q; Cruz, C D; Nascimento, M

    2016-01-01

    Artificial neural networks have shown great potential when applied to breeding programs. In this study, we propose the use of artificial neural networks as a viable alternative to conventional prediction methods. We conduct a thorough evaluation of the efficiency of these networks with respect to the prediction of breeding values. Therefore, we considered eight simulated scenarios, and for the purpose of genetic value prediction, seven statistical parameters in addition to the phenotypic mean in a network designed as a multilayer perceptron. After an evaluation of different network configurations, the results demonstrated the superiority of neural networks compared to estimation procedures based on linear models, and indicated high predictive accuracy and network efficiency. PMID:27051007

  5. Accuracy of Predicted Genomic Breeding Values in Purebred and Crossbred Pigs

    PubMed Central

    Hidalgo, André M.; Bastiaansen, John W. M.; Lopes, Marcos S.; Harlizius, Barbara; Groenen, Martien A. M.; de Koning, Dirk-Jan

    2015-01-01

    Genomic selection has been widely implemented in dairy cattle breeding when the aim is to improve performance of purebred animals. In pigs, however, the final product is a crossbred animal. This may affect the efficiency of methods that are currently implemented for dairy cattle. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine the accuracy of predicted breeding values in crossbred pigs using purebred genomic and phenotypic data. A second objective was to compare the predictive ability of SNPs when training is done in either single or multiple populations for four traits: age at first insemination (AFI); total number of piglets born (TNB); litter birth weight (LBW); and litter variation (LVR). We performed marker-based and pedigree-based predictions. Within-population predictions for the four traits ranged from 0.21 to 0.72. Multi-population prediction yielded accuracies ranging from 0.18 to 0.67. Predictions across purebred populations as well as predicting genetic merit of crossbreds from their purebred parental lines for AFI performed poorly (not significantly different from zero). In contrast, accuracies of across-population predictions and accuracies of purebred to crossbred predictions for LBW and LVR ranged from 0.08 to 0.31 and 0.11 to 0.31, respectively. Accuracy for TNB was zero for across-population prediction, whereas for purebred to crossbred prediction it ranged from 0.08 to 0.22. In general, marker-based outperformed pedigree-based prediction across populations and traits. However, in some cases pedigree-based prediction performed similarly or outperformed marker-based prediction. There was predictive ability when purebred populations were used to predict crossbred genetic merit using an additive model in the populations studied. AFI was the only exception, indicating that predictive ability depends largely on the genetic correlation between PB and CB performance, which was 0.31 for AFI. Multi-population prediction was no better than within

  6. Accuracy of Predicted Genomic Breeding Values in Purebred and Crossbred Pigs.

    PubMed

    Hidalgo, André M; Bastiaansen, John W M; Lopes, Marcos S; Harlizius, Barbara; Groenen, Martien A M; de Koning, Dirk-Jan

    2015-08-01

    Genomic selection has been widely implemented in dairy cattle breeding when the aim is to improve performance of purebred animals. In pigs, however, the final product is a crossbred animal. This may affect the efficiency of methods that are currently implemented for dairy cattle. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine the accuracy of predicted breeding values in crossbred pigs using purebred genomic and phenotypic data. A second objective was to compare the predictive ability of SNPs when training is done in either single or multiple populations for four traits: age at first insemination (AFI); total number of piglets born (TNB); litter birth weight (LBW); and litter variation (LVR). We performed marker-based and pedigree-based predictions. Within-population predictions for the four traits ranged from 0.21 to 0.72. Multi-population prediction yielded accuracies ranging from 0.18 to 0.67. Predictions across purebred populations as well as predicting genetic merit of crossbreds from their purebred parental lines for AFI performed poorly (not significantly different from zero). In contrast, accuracies of across-population predictions and accuracies of purebred to crossbred predictions for LBW and LVR ranged from 0.08 to 0.31 and 0.11 to 0.31, respectively. Accuracy for TNB was zero for across-population prediction, whereas for purebred to crossbred prediction it ranged from 0.08 to 0.22. In general, marker-based outperformed pedigree-based prediction across populations and traits. However, in some cases pedigree-based prediction performed similarly or outperformed marker-based prediction. There was predictive ability when purebred populations were used to predict crossbred genetic merit using an additive model in the populations studied. AFI was the only exception, indicating that predictive ability depends largely on the genetic correlation between PB and CB performance, which was 0.31 for AFI. Multi-population prediction was no better than within

  7. Working memory capacity and spontaneous emotion regulation: high capacity predicts self-enhancement in response to negative feedback.

    PubMed

    Schmeichel, Brandon J; Demaree, Heath A

    2010-10-01

    Although previous evidence suggests that working memory capacity (WMC) is important for success at emotion regulation, that evidence may reveal simply that people with higher WMC follow instructions better than those with lower WMC. The present study tested the hypothesis that people with higher WMC more effectively engage in spontaneous emotion regulation following negative feedback, relative to those with lower WMC. Participants were randomly assigned to receive either no feedback or negative feedback about their emotional intelligence. They then completed a disguised measure of self-enhancement and a self-report measure of affect. Experimental condition and WMC interacted such that higher WMC predicted more self-enhancement and less negative affect following negative feedback. This research provides novel insight into the consequences of individual differences in WMC and illustrates that cognitive capacity may facilitate the spontaneous self-regulation of emotion. PMID:21038959

  8. Metacognitive functioning predicts positive and negative symptoms over 12 months in first episode psychosis.

    PubMed

    McLeod, Hamish J; Gumley, Andrew I; Macbeth, Angus; Schwannauer, Matthias; Lysaker, Paul H

    2014-07-01

    The negative symptoms of schizophrenia are a major source of impairment and distress but both pharmacological and psychological treatment options provide only modest benefit. Developing more effective psychological treatments for negative symptoms will require a more sophisticated understanding of the psychological processes that are implicated in their development and maintenance. We extended previous work by demonstrating that metacognitive functioning is related to negative symptom expression across the first 12 months of first episode psychosis (FEP). Previous studies in this area have either been cross-sectional or have used much older participants with long-standing symptoms. In this study, forty-five FEP participants were assessed three times over 12 months and provided data on PANSS rated symptoms, premorbid adjustment, metacognitive functioning, and DUP. Step-wise linear regression showed that adding metacognition scores to known predictors of negative symptoms (baseline symptom severity, gender, DUP, and premorbid academic and social adjustment) accounted for 62% of the variance in PANSS negative symptom scores at six months and 38% at 12 months. The same predictors also explained 47% of the variance in positive symptoms at both six and 12 months. However, exploration of the simple correlations between PANSS symptom scores and metacognition suggests a stronger univariate relationship between metacognition and negative symptoms. Overall, the results indicate that problems with mental state processing may be important determinants of negative symptom expression from the very early stages of psychosis. These results provide further evidence that metacognitive functioning is a potentially relevant target for psychological interventions. PMID:24725651

  9. Electrophysiological changes elicited by auditory stimuli given a positive or negative value: a study comparing anhedonic with hedonic subjects.

    PubMed

    Pierson, A; Ragot, R; Ripoche, A; Lesevre, N

    1987-07-01

    The present experiment investigates in 'normal' subjects the relationship between personality characteristics (anhedonia versus hedonia) and the influence of the affective value of acoustic stimuli (positive, negative, neutral) on various electrophysiological indices reflecting either tonic activation or phasic arousal (EEG power spectra, contingent negative variation: CNV, heart rate, skin potential responses: SPR) as well as on behavioural indices (reaction time: RT). Eighteen subjects were divided into two groups according to their scores at two self-rating questionnaires, the Chapman's Physical Anhedonia Scale (PAS) and the Beck-Weissman's Dysfunctional Attitude Scale (DAS) that quantifies cognitive distortions presumed to constitute high risk for depression: 9 with high scores at both scales formed the A group (Anhedonic-dysfunctional), 9 with low scores at both scales, the H group (Hedonic-adapted) The electrophysiological indices were recorded during 3 situations: the first one was a classical CNV paradigm with a motor reaction time task in which one of 3 tones of different pitch represented the warning stimulus S1; during the second, conditioning phase, two of these tones were associated with either a success (and reward) or a failure (and punishment) during a memory task in order to make them acquire either a positive or a negative affective value; the third situation consisted in the repeating of the first CNV paradigm in order to test the effect of the positive and the negative stimuli versus the neutral one on RTs and electrophysiological data. Significant between-group differences were found regarding tonic activation as well as phasic arousal indices from the very beginning of the experiment when all stimuli were neutral ones, the anhedonics exhibiting higher activation and arousal than the hedonics at the cortical (increased CNV amplitude, increased power in the beta frequency band), cardiovascular (higher heart rate habituating more slowly) and

  10. Prediction of textural attributes using color values of banana (Musa sapientum) during ripening.

    PubMed

    Jaiswal, Pranita; Jha, Shyam Narayan; Kaur, Poonam Preet; Bhardwaj, Rishi; Singh, Ashish Kumar; Wadhawan, Vishakha

    2014-06-01

    Banana is an important sub-tropical fruit in international trade. It undergoes significant textural and color transformations during ripening process, which in turn influence the eating quality of the fruit. In present study, color ('L', 'a' and 'b' value) and textural attributes of bananas (peel, fruit and pulp firmness; pulp toughness; stickiness) were studied simultaneously using Hunter Color Lab and Texture Analyser, respectively, during ripening period of 10 days at ambient atmosphere. There was significant effect of ripening period on all the considered textural characteristics and color properties of bananas except color value 'b'. In general, textural descriptors (peel, fruit and pulp firmness; and pulp toughness) decreased during ripening except stickiness, while color values viz 'a' and 'b' increased with ripening barring 'L' value. Among various textural attributes, peel toughness and pulp firmness showed highest correlation (r) with 'a' value of banana peel. In order to predict textural properties using color values of banana, five types of equations (linear/polynomial/exponential/logarithmic/power) were fitted. Among them, polynomial equation was found to be the best fit (highest coefficient of determination, R(2)) for prediction of texture using color properties for bananas. The pulp firmness, peel toughness and pulp toughness showed R(2) above 0.84 with indicating its potentiality of the fitted equations for prediction of textural profile of bananas non-destructively using 'a' value. PMID:24876653

  11. Predictive Response Value of Pre- and Postchemoradiotherapy Variables in Rectal Cancer: An Analysis of Histological Data

    PubMed Central

    Santos, Marisa D.; Silva, Cristina; Rocha, Anabela; Nogueira, Carlos; Matos, Eduarda; Lopes, Carlos

    2016-01-01

    Background. Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) followed by curative surgery in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) improves pelvic disease control. Survival improvement is achieved only if pathological response occurs. Mandard tumor regression grade (TRG) proved to be a valid system to measure nCRT response. Potential predictive factors for Mandard response are analyzed. Materials and Methods. 167 patients with LARC were treated with nCRT and curative surgery. Tumor biopsies and surgical specimens were reviewed and analyzed regarding mitotic count, necrosis, desmoplastic reaction, and inflammatory infiltration grade. Surgical specimens were classified according to Mandard TRG. The patients were divided as “good responders” (Mandard TRG1-2) and “bad responders” (Mandard TRG3-5). According to results from our previous data, good responders have better prognosis than bad responders. We examined predictive factors for Mandard response and performed statistical analysis. Results. In univariate analysis, distance from anal verge and ten other postoperative variables related with nCRT tumor response had predictive value for Mandard response. In multivariable analysis only mitotic count, necrosis, and differentiation grade in surgical specimen had predictive value. Conclusions. There is a lack of clinical and pathological preoperative variables able to predict Mandard response. Only postoperative pathological parameters related with nCRT response have predictive value. PMID:26885438

  12. Sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of a forearm blood pressure measurement method in severe obesity.

    PubMed

    Leblanc, Marie-Ève; Cloutier, Lyne; Poirier, Paul

    2015-04-01

    For blood pressure assessment, it has been reported that forearm blood pressure measurement appears to be as valid as an upper-arm blood pressure measurement method in individuals with severe obesity when correlated to the intra-arterial method, considered as the gold standard. Sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values for the presence of systemic hypertension in 25 severely obese patients from 352 blood pressure measurements were calculated. The sensitivity (0.98) and the positive predictive value (0.93) for hypertension on forearm blood pressure measurements are excellent, indicating that the forearm approach is a promising alternative to systemic hypertension diagnosis in severe obesity. PMID:25757220

  13. The dark side of optimism: unrealistic optimism about problems with alcohol predicts subsequent negative event experiences.

    PubMed

    Dillard, Amanda J; Midboe, Amanda M; Klein, William M P

    2009-11-01

    College students were identified who were unrealistically optimistic about the likelihood they would experience severe problems due to alcohol consumption. These individuals were then followed over a 2-year period to determine whether they were more likely to report experiencing a range of alcohol-related negative events. Unlike the majority of studies on unrealistic optimism, this study (a) assessed bias at the individual rather than group level and (b) used a prospective rather than cross-sectional design. Participants completed measures at four times, each separated by 4-6 months. Findings showed that unrealistic optimism at Time 1 was associated with a greater number of negative events at Times 2, 3, and 4. Similarly, unrealistic optimism at Time 2 was associated with more negative events at Times 3 and 4. In all cases, the relationships were significant when controlling for previous negative events, suggesting the effects of unrealistic optimism can mount over time. PMID:19721102

  14. Negative cognitive styles synergistically predict suicidal ideation in bipolar spectrum disorders: a 3-year prospective study.

    PubMed

    Stange, Jonathan P; Hamilton, Jessica L; Burke, Taylor A; Kleiman, Evan M; O'Garro-Moore, Jared K; Seligman, Nicole D; Abramson, Lyn Y; Alloy, Lauren B

    2015-03-30

    Rates of suicidal ideation and behavior are extremely high in bipolar spectrum disorders (BSDs). However, relatively little work has evaluated potentially synergistic relationships between cognitive and emotion-regulatory processes proposed by theoretical models of suicidality in BSDs. The present study evaluated whether negative cognitive style and subtypes of rumination would exacerbate the impact of self-criticism on suicidal ideation in a prospective study of individuals with BSDs. Seventy-two young adults with BSDs (bipolar II, bipolar NOS, or cyclothymia) completed diagnostic interviews and trait measures of self-criticism, negative cognitive style, and brooding and reflective rumination at a baseline assessment. The occurrence of suicidal ideation was assessed as part of diagnostic interviews completed every 4 months for an average of 3 years of follow-up. Negative cognitive style and reflective rumination strengthened the association between self-criticism and the prospective occurrence of suicidal ideation across follow-up. Individuals with high levels of self-criticism in conjunction with negative cognitive style or reflective rumination were most likely to experience the onset of suicidal ideation. Self-criticism may work synergistically with negative cognitive style and rumination to confer risk for suicidal ideation in bipolar spectrum disorders. These results support theoretical models of suicidality in BSDs and indicate that evaluating and understanding negative cognitive styles may help to identify individuals who are at risk of suicide. PMID:25660736

  15. Correlates of reward-predictive value in learning-related hippocampal neural activity

    PubMed Central

    Okatan, Murat

    2009-01-01

    Temporal difference learning (TD) is a popular algorithm in machine learning. Two learning signals that are derived from this algorithm, the predictive value and the prediction error, have been shown to explain changes in neural activity and behavior during learning across species. Here, the predictive value signal is used to explain the time course of learning-related changes in the activity of hippocampal neurons in monkeys performing an associative learning task. The TD algorithm serves as the centerpiece of a joint probability model for the learning-related neural activity and the behavioral responses recorded during the task. The neural component of the model consists of spiking neurons that compete and learn the reward-predictive value of task-relevant input signals. The predictive-value signaled by these neurons influences the behavioral response generated by a stochastic decision stage, which constitutes the behavioral component of the model. It is shown that the time course of the changes in neural activity and behavioral performance generated by the model exhibits key features of the experimental data. The results suggest that information about correct associations may be expressed in the hippocampus before it is detected in the behavior of a subject. In this way, the hippocampus may be among the earliest brain areas to express learning and drive the behavioral changes associated with learning. Correlates of reward-predictive value may be expressed in the hippocampus through rate remapping within spatial memory representations, they may represent reward-related aspects of a declarative or explicit relational memory representation of task contingencies, or they may correspond to reward-related components of episodic memory representations. These potential functions are discussed in connection with hippocampal cell assembly sequences and their reverse reactivation during the awake state. The results provide further support for the proposal that neural

  16. On the hydrophobicity of peptides: Comparing empirical predictions of peptide log P values.

    PubMed

    Thompson, Sarah J; Hattotuwagama, Channa K; Holliday, John D; Flower, Darren R

    2006-01-01

    Peptides are of great therapeutic potential as vaccines and drugs. Knowledge of physicochemical descriptors, including the partition coefficient logP, is useful for the development of predictive Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationships (QSARs). We have investigated the accuracy of available programs for the prediction of logP values for peptides with known experimental values obtained from the literature. Eight prediction programs were tested, of which seven programs were fragment-based methods: XLogP, LogKow, PLogP, ACDLogP, AlogP, Interactive Analysis's LogP and MlogP; and one program used a whole molecule approach: QikProp. The predictive accuracy of the programs was assessed using r(2) values, with ALogP being the most effective (r( 2) = 0.822) and MLogP the least (r(2) = 0.090). We also examined three distinct types of peptide structure: blocked, unblocked, and cyclic. For each study (all peptides, blocked, unblocked and cyclic peptides) the performance of programs rated from best to worse is as follows: all peptides - ALogP, QikProp, PLogP, XLogP, IALogP, LogKow, ACDLogP, and MlogP; blocked peptides - PLogP, XLogP, ACDLogP, IALogP, LogKow, QikProp, ALogP, and MLogP; unblocked peptides - QikProp, IALogP, ALogP, ACDLogP, MLogP, XLogP, LogKow and PLogP; cyclic peptides - LogKow, ALogP, XLogP, MLogP, QikProp, ACDLogP, IALogP. In summary, all programs gave better predictions for blocked peptides, while, in general, logP values for cyclic peptides were under-predicted and those of unblocked peptides were over-predicted. PMID:17597897

  17. [Critical evaluation and predictive value of clinical presentation in out-patients with acute community-acquired pneumonia].

    PubMed

    Mayaud, C; Fartoukh, M; Prigent, H; Parrot, A; Cadranel, J

    2006-01-01

    Diagnostic probability of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) depends on data related to age and clinical and radiological findings. The critical evaluation of data in the literature leads to the following conclusions: 1) the prevalence of CAP in a given population with acute respiratory disease is 5% in outpatients and 10% in an emergency care unit. This could be as low as 2% in young people and even higher than 40% in hospitalized elderly patients; 2) the collection of clinical data is linked to the way the patient is examined and to the expertise of the clinician. The absolute lack of "vital signs" has a good negative predictive value in CAP; presence of unilateral crackles has a good positive predictive value; 3) there is a wide range of X-ray abnormalities: localized alveolar opacities; interstitial opacities, limited of diffused. The greatest radiological difficulties are encountered in old people with disorders including chronic respiratory or cardiac opacities and as a consequence of the high prevalence of bronchopneumonia episodes at this age; 4) among patients with lower respiratory tract (LRT) infections, the blood levels of leukocytes, CRP and procalcitonine are higher in CAP patients, mainly when their disease has a bacterial origin. Since you have not a threshold value reliably demonstrated in large populations with LRT infections or acute respiratory disease, presence or absence of these parameters could only be taken as a slight hint for a CAP diagnosis. PMID:17084571

  18. Predictive value of early serum beta-human chorionic gonadotrophin for the successful outcome in women undergoing in vitro fertilization

    PubMed Central

    Singh, Neeta; Goyal, Manu; Malhotra, Neena; Tiwari, Abanish; Badiger, Shreenivas

    2013-01-01

    AIMS: Pregnancies achieved by in vitro fertilization (IVF) are at increased risk of adverse outcome. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the predictive value of β-human chorionic gonadotrophin (β-HCG) and age of the patient for the successful outcome in IVF. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective study was done in 139 pregnancies after IVF at single IVF center from June 2007 to July 2012. The age of the patient and initial serum values of β-HCG on day 14 of embryo transfer were correlated with ongoing pregnancy (>12 weeks gestation). RESULTS: The β-HCG level on day 14 of more than 347 mIU/ml has a sensitivity of 72.2% and specificity of 73.6% in prediction of pregnancy beyond 12 weeks period of gestation. Positive likelihood ratio (LR) is 2.74 and negative LR is 0.37, (receiver operating characteristic area = 0.79). DISCUSSION: In IVF cycles, there is a lot of stress on the couples while the cycle is going on. There was a positive correlation between the higher values of early serum β-HCG levels and ongoing pregnancy. Hence, it can be used as an independent predictor of a successful outcome of IVF cycle. CONCLUSION: We concluded from our study that early serum β-HCG can be used as a predictor of a successful outcome in IVF. PMID:24672163

  19. FDG-PET Response Prediction in Pediatric Hodgkin’s Lymphoma: Impact of Metabolically Defined Tumor Volumes and Individualized SUV Measurements on the Positive Predictive Value

    PubMed Central

    Hussien, Amr Elsayed M.; Furth, Christian; Schönberger, Stefan; Hundsdoerfer, Patrick; Steffen, Ingo G.; Amthauer, Holger; Müller, Hans-Wilhelm; Hautzel, Hubertus

    2015-01-01

    Background: In pediatric Hodgkin’s lymphoma (pHL) early response-to-therapy prediction is metabolically assessed by (18)F-FDG PET carrying an excellent negative predictive value (NPV) but an impaired positive predictive value (PPV). Aim of this study was to improve the PPV while keeping the optimal NPV. A comparison of different PET data analyses was performed applying individualized standardized uptake values (SUV), PET-derived metabolic tumor volume (MTV) and the product of both parameters, termed total lesion glycolysis (TLG); Methods: One-hundred-eight PET datasets (PET1, n = 54; PET2, n = 54) of 54 children were analysed by visual and semi-quantitative means. SUVmax, SUVmean, MTV and TLG were obtained the results of both PETs and the relative change from PET1 to PET2 (Δ in %) were compared for their capability of identifying responders and non-responders using receiver operating characteristics (ROC)-curves. In consideration of individual variations in noise and contrasts levels all parameters were additionally obtained after threshold correction to lean body mass and background; Results: All semi-quantitative SUV estimates obtained at PET2 were significantly superior to the visual PET2 analysis. However, ΔSUVmax revealed the best results (area under the curve, 0.92; p < 0.001; sensitivity 100%; specificity 85.4%; PPV 46.2%; NPV 100%; accuracy, 87.0%) but was not significantly superior to SUVmax-estimation at PET2 and ΔTLGmax. Likewise, the lean body mass and background individualization of the datasets did not impove the results of the ROC analyses; Conclusions: Sophisticated semi-quantitative PET measures in early response assessment of pHL patients do not perform significantly better than the previously proposed ΔSUVmax. All analytical strategies failed to improve the impaired PPV to a clinically acceptable level while preserving the excellent NPV. PMID:25635760

  20. Negative prognostic value of CD34 antigen also if expressed on a small population of acute promyelocytic leukemia cells.

    PubMed

    Breccia, Massimo; De Propris, Maria Stefania; Stefanizzi, Caterina; Raponi, Sara; Molica, Matteo; Colafigli, Gioia; Minotti, Clara; Latagliata, Roberto; Diverio, Daniela; Guarini, Anna; Foà, Robin

    2014-11-01

    Potential clinical significance of CD34 expression in acute promyelocitic leukemia (APL) has not been deeply investigated. We hereby analyzed the clinico-biological features and treatment outcome of APL patients in relation to CD34 expression, even when expressed in a small subpopulation: 114 APL patients homogeneously treated with the AIDA schedule were included in the study and prognostic correlation with respect to CD34 expression, both when expressed in association with CD2 and as isolated expression (cutoff ≥2 to <10 % or ≥10 %), were investigated. CD34 was associated to CD2 in 30 patients and was isolated in 19 patients. When compared to the CD34-negative population, CD34/CD2 expression identified a subgroup with characteristic features: M3 variant subtype (26 vs 7 % in the negative group, p = 0.02), bcr3 transcript subtype (73 vs 32 %, p = 0.001), high risk according to the risk of relapse (66 vs 17 %, p = 0.002), high incidence of differentiation syndrome (26 vs 12 %, p = 0.01), lower overall survival (88 vs 95 %), and a significantly higher rate of relapse (22 vs 13.8 %, p = 0.05). We then evaluated the prognostic value of isolated CD34 expression: it was detected in nine patients with a cutoff of expression ≥10 % and in 10 patients with a cutoff ≥2 but <10 %. Isolated CD34 positivity identified a subgroup with a classic morphology (79 %), bcr1 prevalence (53 %), higher rate of relapse (37 vs 13.8 % in the negative group, p = 0.002), higher incidence of differentiation syndrome (55 vs 12 %, p = 0.03), and lower overall survival (60 vs 95 %, p = 0.001). The results of our study confirm that CD34/CD2 expression characterizes a subset of APL with a high WBC count and a variant morphological subtype, associated with an unfavorable clinical course. We also show that the isolated expression of CD34, even at a low cutoff, identifies a group of classic APL with a negative prognosis. Further studies aimed at identifying other

  1. Prediction of breeding values for dairy cattle using artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy systems.

    PubMed

    Shahinfar, Saleh; Mehrabani-Yeganeh, Hassan; Lucas, Caro; Kalhor, Ahmad; Kazemian, Majid; Weigel, Kent A

    2012-01-01

    Developing machine learning and soft computing techniques has provided many opportunities for researchers to establish new analytical methods in different areas of science. The objective of this study is to investigate the potential of two types of intelligent learning methods, artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy systems, in order to estimate breeding values (EBV) of Iranian dairy cattle. Initially, the breeding values of lactating Holstein cows for milk and fat yield were estimated using conventional best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) with an animal model. Once that was established, a multilayer perceptron was used to build ANN to predict breeding values from the performance data of selection candidates. Subsequently, fuzzy logic was used to form an NFS, a hybrid intelligent system that was implemented via a local linear model tree algorithm. For milk yield the correlations between EBV and EBV predicted by the ANN and NFS were 0.92 and 0.93, respectively. Corresponding correlations for fat yield were 0.93 and 0.93, respectively. Correlations between multitrait predictions of EBVs for milk and fat yield when predicted simultaneously by ANN were 0.93 and 0.93, respectively, whereas corresponding correlations with reference EBV for multitrait NFS were 0.94 and 0.95, respectively, for milk and fat production. PMID:22991575

  2. The Predictive Value of Selection Criteria in an Urban Magnet School

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lohmeier, Jill Hendrickson; Raad, Jennifer

    2012-01-01

    The predictive value of selection criteria on outcome data from two cohorts of students (Total N = 525) accepted to an urban magnet high school were evaluated. Regression analyses of typical screening variables (suspensions, absences, metropolitan achievement tests, middle school grade point averages [GPAs], Matrix Analogies test scores, and…

  3. Value signals in the prefrontal cortex predict individual preferences across reward categories.

    PubMed

    Gross, Jörg; Woelbert, Eva; Zimmermann, Jan; Okamoto-Barth, Sanae; Riedl, Arno; Goebel, Rainer

    2014-05-28

    Humans can choose between fundamentally different options, such as watching a movie or going out for dinner. According to the utility concept, put forward by utilitarian philosophers and widely used in economics, this may be accomplished by mapping the value of different options onto a common scale, independent of specific option characteristics (Fehr and Rangel, 2011; Levy and Glimcher, 2012). If this is the case, value-related activity patterns in the brain should allow predictions of individual preferences across fundamentally different reward categories. We analyze fMRI data of the prefrontal cortex while subjects imagine the pleasure they would derive from items belonging to two distinct reward categories: engaging activities (like going out for drinks, daydreaming, or doing sports) and snack foods. Support vector machines trained on brain patterns related to one category reliably predict individual preferences of the other category and vice versa. Further, we predict preferences across participants. These findings demonstrate that prefrontal cortex value signals follow a common scale representation of value that is even comparable across individuals and could, in principle, be used to predict choice. PMID:24872562

  4. Discrepancy between Atwater factor predicted and empirically measured energy value of almonds in human diets

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Energy content of foods is primarily determined by the Atwater factors, which may not be accurate for certain food groups. Nuts are a food group for which evidence suggests that the Atwater factors may be poorly predictive. The objective of this study was to determine the energy value of almonds i...

  5. 21 CFR 868.1890 - Predictive pulmonary-function value calculator.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Predictive pulmonary-function value calculator. 868.1890 Section 868.1890 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) MEDICAL DEVICES ANESTHESIOLOGY DEVICES Diagnostic Devices § 868.1890...

  6. 21 CFR 868.1890 - Predictive pulmonary-function value calculator.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Predictive pulmonary-function value calculator. 868.1890 Section 868.1890 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) MEDICAL DEVICES ANESTHESIOLOGY DEVICES Diagnostic Devices § 868.1890...

  7. 21 CFR 868.1890 - Predictive pulmonary-function value calculator.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Predictive pulmonary-function value calculator. 868.1890 Section 868.1890 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) MEDICAL DEVICES ANESTHESIOLOGY DEVICES Diagnostic Devices § 868.1890...

  8. 21 CFR 868.1890 - Predictive pulmonary-function value calculator.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Predictive pulmonary-function value calculator. 868.1890 Section 868.1890 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) MEDICAL DEVICES ANESTHESIOLOGY DEVICES Diagnostic Devices § 868.1890...

  9. Significance of a Behavioral Economic Index of Reward Value in Predicting Drinking Problem Resolution

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tucker, Jalie A.; Vuchinich, Rudy E.; Black, Bethany C.; Rippens, Paula D.

    2006-01-01

    This study investigated whether a behavioral economic index of the value of rewards available over different time horizons improved prediction of drinking outcomes beyond established biopsychosocial predictors. Preferences for immediate drinking versus more delayed rewards made possible by saving money were determined from expenditures prior to…

  10. Interests, Work Values, and Occupations: Predicting Work Outcomes with the WorkKeys Fit Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Swaney, Kyle B.; Allen, Jeff; Casillas, Alex; Hanson, Mary Ann; Robbins, Steven B.

    2012-01-01

    This study examined whether a measure of person-environment (P-E) fit predicted worker ratings of work attitudes and supervisor ratings of performance. After combining extant data elements and expert ratings of interest and work value characteristics for each occupation in the O*NET system, the authors generated a "Fit Index"--involving profile…

  11. Comparing the Effects of Negative and Mixed Emotional Messages on Predicted Occasional Excessive Drinking

    PubMed Central

    Carrera, Pilar; Caballero, Amparo; Muñoz, Dolores

    2008-01-01

    In this work we present two types of emotional message, negative (sadness) versus mixed (joy and sadness), with the aim of studying their differential effect on attitude change and the probability estimated by participants of repeating the behavior of occasional excessive drinking in the near future. The results show that for the group of participants with moderate experience in this behavior the negative message, compared to the mixed one, is associated with higher probability of repeating the risk behavior and a less negative attitude toward it. These results suggest that mixed emotional messages (e.g. joy and sadness messages) could be more effective in campaigns for the prevention of this risk behavior. PMID:25977606

  12. Familiarity and anticipation of negative life events as moderator variables in predicting illness.

    PubMed

    Gardner, R M; Ostrowski, T A; Pino, R D; Morrell, J A; Kochevar, R

    1992-09-01

    A 10-month longitudinal study with 79 university students examined the role of positive and negative life experiences on the subsequent development of health problems. The Life Experiences Survey (LES; Sarason, Johnson & Siegel, 1978) was modified to measure the potential role of five moderating variables on illness. Students gave monthly reports of life events experienced, as well as health status, on the Seriousness of Illness Rating Scale (Wyler, Masuda & Holmes, 1968). Results indicated that both positive and negative life events were predictors of subsequent health problems. Negative life events that were familiar to the students and were unanticipated proved to be significant moderator variables; both factors were significant predictors of the number of health problems subsequently experienced. PMID:1401142

  13. Negative relationships in the family-of-origin predict attenuated cortisol in emerging adults

    PubMed Central

    Luecken, Linda J.; Kraft, Amy; Hagan, Melissa J.

    2009-01-01

    Negative childhood family environments have been associated with stress-related physical and psychological health consequences across the lifespan. The present study examined the relation between adverse relationships in the family of origin and physiological stress response, as measured by salivary cortisol, in emerging adulthood. Seventy-six university students (age range = 18–22) selected from intact married families-of-origin characterized by either negative (n = 39) or positive (n = 37) relationship quality engaged in a challenging role play task. Results from multilevel models indicated that those from negative families exhibited significantly lower salivary cortisol across the task than those from positive families. This relation did not change in strength or direction after controlling for experiences with abuse or recent anxiety or depressive symptoms. These findings suggest the significance of early family relationships on the long-term activity of the HPA axis. PMID:19470368

  14. Optimal Cut-Off Values of Lymph Node Ratio Predicting Recurrence in Papillary Thyroid Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Seul Gi; Ho, Joon; Choi, Jung Bum; Kim, Tae Hyung; Kim, Min Jhi; Ban, Eun Jeong; Lee, Cho Rok; Kang, Sang-Wook; Jeong, Jong Ju; Nam, Kee-Hyun; Jung, Sang Geun; Jo, Young Suk; Lee, Jandee; Chung, Woong Youn

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Regional lymph node (LN) metastasis has a significant impact for prediction of recurrence in patients with papillary thyroid cancers (PTC); however, the prognostic value of the lymph node ratio (LNR), which is defined as the ratio of the number of metastatic LNs to the total number of investigated LNs, is controversial. In this study, we determined the optimal cut-off values of LNRs for the prediction of recurrence in PTC patients. This large cohort study retrospectively evaluated 2294 patients who had undergone total thyroidectomy for PTC at a single institution from October 1985 to June 2009. The prediction probability of central LNR (cLNR, level VI) and total LNR (tLNR, levels II–VI) were estimated by binominal logistic regression analysis. Hazard ratios of the cut-off LNR values for cancer recurrence were calculated for relevant covariates using multivariate Cox regression analyses. Kaplan–Meier analyses were also utilized to assess the effects of estimated LNR cut-off values on recurrence-free survival (RFS). Of the 2294 patients, 138 (6.0%) presented cancer recurrence during the follow-up period (median duration = 107.1 months). The prediction probability indicated that LNRs of 0.4 and 0.5 for central LN and total LN, respectively, are optimal cut-off values for precise prediction with minimization of outliers. Multivariate Cox regression analyses revealed that cLNR ≥0.4 was independently predictive of recurrence in patients with N0 and N1a PTCs (hazard ratio [HR]: 7.016, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.72–12.986, P < 0.001) and that tLNR ≥0.5 indicated a significantly increased risk of recurrence in patients with N1b PTCs (HR: 2.372, 95% CI: 1.458–3.860, P < 0.001). In addition, Kaplan–Meier analyses clearly demonstrated that these LNR cut-off values are precisely operational in RFS estimation. The cut-off LNR values of 0.4 and 0.5 for cLNR and tLNR, respectively, were identified. Risk stratification combined with these LNR cut

  15. Optimal Cut-Off Values of Lymph Node Ratio Predicting Recurrence in Papillary Thyroid Cancer.

    PubMed

    Lee, Seul Gi; Ho, Joon; Choi, Jung Bum; Kim, Tae Hyung; Kim, Min Jhi; Ban, Eun Jeong; Lee, Cho Rok; Kang, Sang-Wook; Jeong, Jong Ju; Nam, Kee-Hyun; Jung, Sang Geun; Jo, Young Suk; Lee, Jandee; Chung, Woong Youn

    2016-02-01

    Regional lymph node (LN) metastasis has a significant impact for prediction of recurrence in patients with papillary thyroid cancers (PTC); however, the prognostic value of the lymph node ratio (LNR), which is defined as the ratio of the number of metastatic LNs to the total number of investigated LNs, is controversial. In this study, we determined the optimal cut-off values of LNRs for the prediction of recurrence in PTC patients.This large cohort study retrospectively evaluated 2294 patients who had undergone total thyroidectomy for PTC at a single institution from October 1985 to June 2009. The prediction probability of central LNR (cLNR, level VI) and total LNR (tLNR, levels II-VI) were estimated by binominal logistic regression analysis. Hazard ratios of the cut-off LNR values for cancer recurrence were calculated for relevant covariates using multivariate Cox regression analyses. Kaplan-Meier analyses were also utilized to assess the effects of estimated LNR cut-off values on recurrence-free survival (RFS).Of the 2294 patients, 138 (6.0%) presented cancer recurrence during the follow-up period (median duration = 107.1 months). The prediction probability indicated that LNRs of 0.4 and 0.5 for central LN and total LN, respectively, are optimal cut-off values for precise prediction with minimization of outliers. Multivariate Cox regression analyses revealed that cLNR ≥0.4 was independently predictive of recurrence in patients with N0 and N1a PTCs (hazard ratio [HR]: 7.016, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.72-12.986, P < 0.001) and that tLNR ≥0.5 indicated a significantly increased risk of recurrence in patients with N1b PTCs (HR: 2.372, 95% CI: 1.458-3.860, P < 0.001). In addition, Kaplan-Meier analyses clearly demonstrated that these LNR cut-off values are precisely operational in RFS estimation.The cut-off LNR values of 0.4 and 0.5 for cLNR and tLNR, respectively, were identified. Risk stratification combined with these LNR cut-off values may prove

  16. Modeling Polio Data Using the First Order Non-Negative Integer-Valued Autoregressive, INAR(1), Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vazifedan, Turaj; Shitan, Mahendran

    Time series data may consists of counts, such as the number of road accidents, the number of patients in a certain hospital, the number of customers waiting for service at a certain time and etc. When the value of the observations are large it is usual to use Gaussian Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) process to model the time series. However if the observed counts are small, it is not appropriate to use ARMA process to model the observed phenomenon. In such cases we need to model the time series data by using Non-Negative Integer valued Autoregressive (INAR) process. The modeling of counts data is based on the binomial thinning operator. In this paper we illustrate the modeling of counts data using the monthly number of Poliomyelitis data in United States between January 1970 until December 1983. We applied the AR(1), Poisson regression model and INAR(1) model and the suitability of these models were assessed by using the Index of Agreement(I.A.). We found that INAR(1) model is more appropriate in the sense it had a better I.A. and it is natural since the data are counts.

  17. Predictive Values of Red Blood Cell Distribution Width in Assessing Severity of Chronic Heart Failure.

    PubMed

    Liu, Sen; Wang, Ping; Shen, Ping-Ping; Zhou, Jian-Hua

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND This retrospective study was performed to evaluate the value of baseline red blood cell distribution width (RDW) for predicting the severity of chronic heart failure (CHF) compared with N-terminal prohormone brain natriuretic peptide (NT-ProBNP) and other hematological and biochemical parameters. MATERIAL AND METHODS Hematological and biochemical parameters were obtained from 179 patients with New York Heart Association (NYHA) CHF class I (n=44), II (n=39), III (n=41), and IV (n=55). Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves were used for assessing predictive values. RESULTS RDW increased significantly in class III and IV compared with class I (14.3±2.3% and 14.3±1.7% vs. 12.9±0.8%, P<0.01). Areas under ROCs (AUCs) of RDW and NT-ProBNP for class IV HF were 0.817 and 0.840, respectively. RDW was markedly elevated in the mortality group compared with the survival group (13.7±1.7 vs. 15.8±1.8, P<0.01). The predictive value of RDW was lower than that of NT-ProBNP but was comparable to white blood cell (WBC), neutrophil (NEU), lymphocyte (L), and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (N/L) for mortality during hospitalization, with AUCs of 0.837, 0.939, 0.858, 0.891, 0.885, and 0.885, respectively. RDW and NT-proBNP showed low predictive values for repeated admission (≥3). RDW was an independent risk factor for mortality (OR=2.531, 95% CI: 1.371-4.671). CONCLUSIONS RDW increased significantly in class III and IV patients and in the mortality group. The predictive value of RDW is comparable to NT-proBNP for class IV and lower than that of NT-proBNP for mortality. Elevated RDW is an independent risk factor for mortality. PMID:27324271

  18. Predictive value of hormonal parameters for live birth in women with unexplained infertility and male infertility

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Infertile women might get pregnant sometime after fertility treatment, but today, there is no prediction model on who will eventually have children. The objective of the present study was to characterize hormone levels in an arbitrary menstrual cycle in women with unexplained infertility and male infertility, and to determine the predictive value for long-term possibility of live birth. Methods In this cross-sectional study, with 71 infertile women with diagnosis unexplained infertility and male infertility, blood samples were obtained during the proliferative and secretory phases of an arbitrary menstrual cycle. Serum concentrations of FSH, LH, AMH, inhibin B, estradiol, progesterone, PRL and TSH were determined. The predictive value of ovulation and hormonal analysis was determined by identifying the proportion of women with at least one live birth. Mann Whitney U test, chi2 test and Spearman’s correlation were used for statistical analysis. A value of p < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results There were no differences in hormone values and live birth rates between women with unexplained infertility and male infertility. The best sole predictors of live birth were age of the women, followed by ovulatory cycle, defined as serum progesterone concentration of greater than or equal to 32 nmol/L, and a serum TSH concentration of less than or equal to 2.5 mIU/L. Combining the age with the ovulatory cycle and serum TSH less than or equal to 2.5 mIU/L or serum AMH greater than or equal to 10 pmol/L the predictive value was close to 90%. Conclusions Age in combination with the presence of an ovulatory cycle and serum TSH or serum AMH is predictive for long-term live birth. The advantage of serum AMH compared with serum TSH is the very little variation throughout the menstrual cycle, which makes it a useful tool in infertility diagnosis. PMID:23844631

  19. 111In platelet imaging of left ventricular thrombi. Predictive value for systemic emboli

    SciTech Connect

    Stratton, J.R.; Ritchie, J.L. )

    1990-04-01

    To determine whether a positive indium 111 platelet image for a left ventricular thrombus, which indicates ongoing thrombogenic activity, predicts an increased risk of systemic embolization, we compared the embolic rate in 34 patients with positive {sup 111}In platelet images with that in 69 patients with negative images during a mean follow-up of 38 +/- 31 (+/- SD) months after platelet imaging. The positive and negative image groups were similar with respect to age (59 +/- 11 vs. 62 +/- 10 years), prevalence of previous infarction (94% vs. 78%, p less than 0.05), time from last infarction (28 +/- 51 vs. 33 +/- 47 months), ejection fraction (29 +/- 14 vs. 33 +/- 14), long-term or paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (15% vs. 26%), warfarin therapy during follow-up (26% vs. 20%), platelet-inhibitory therapy during follow-up (50% vs. 33%), injected {sup 111}In dose (330 +/- 92 vs. 344 +/- 118 microCi), and latest imaging time (greater than or equal to 48 hours in all patients). During follow-up, embolic events occurred in 21% (seven of 34) of patients with positive platelet images for left ventricular thrombi as compared with 3% (two of 69) of patients with negative images (p = 0.002). By actuarial methods, at 42 months after platelet imaging, only 86% of patients with positive images were embolus free as compared with 98% of patients with negative images (p less than 0.01).

  20. The Predictive Value of the NICE “Red Traffic Lights” in Acutely Ill Children

    PubMed Central

    Kerkhof, Evelien; Lakhanpaul, Monica; Ray, Samiran; Verbakel, Jan Y.; Van den Bruel, Ann; Thompson, Matthew; Berger, Marjolein Y.; Moll, Henriette A.; Oostenbrink, Rianne

    2014-01-01

    Objective Early recognition and treatment of febrile children with serious infections (SI) improves prognosis, however, early detection can be difficult. We aimed to validate the predictive rule-in value of the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) most severe alarming signs or symptoms to identify SI in children. Design, Setting and Participants The 16 most severe (“red”) features of the NICE traffic light system were validated in seven different primary care and emergency department settings, including 6,260 children presenting with acute illness. Main Outcome Measures We focussed on the individual predictive value of single red features for SI and their combinations. Results were presented as positive likelihood ratios, sensitivities and specificities. We categorised “general” and “disease-specific” red features. Changes in pre-test probability versus post-test probability for SI were visualised in Fagan nomograms. Results Almost all red features had rule-in value for SI, but only four individual red features substantially raised the probability of SI in more than one dataset: “does not wake/stay awake”, “reduced skin turgor”, “non-blanching rash”, and “focal neurological signs”. The presence of ≥3 red features improved prediction of SI but still lacked strong rule-in value as likelihood ratios were below 5. Conclusions The rule-in value of the most severe alarming signs or symptoms of the NICE traffic light system for identifying children with SI was limited, even when multiple red features were present. Our study highlights the importance of assessing the predictive value of alarming signs in clinical guidelines prior to widespread implementation in routine practice. PMID:24633015

  1. Defining the cutoff value of MGMT gene promoter methylation and its predictive capacity in glioblastoma.

    PubMed

    Brigliadori, Giovanni; Foca, Flavia; Dall'Agata, Monia; Rengucci, Claudia; Melegari, Elisabetta; Cerasoli, Serenella; Amadori, Dino; Calistri, Daniele; Faedi, Marina

    2016-06-01

    Despite advances in the treatment of glioblastoma (GBM), median survival is 12-15 months. O6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) gene promoter methylation status is acknowledged as a predictive marker for temozolomide (TMZ) treatment. When MGMT promoter values fall into a "methylated" range, a better response to chemotherapy is expected. However, a cutoff that discriminates between "methylated" and "unmethylated" status has yet to be defined. We aimed to identify the best cutoff value and to find out whether variability in methylation profiles influences the predictive capacity of MGMT promoter methylation. Data from 105 GBM patients treated between 2008 and 2013 were analyzed. MGMT promoter methylation status was determined by analyzing 10 CpG islands by pyrosequencing. Patients were treated with radiotherapy followed by TMZ. MGMT promoter methylation status was classified into unmethylated 0-9 %, methylated 10-29 % and methylated 30-100 %. Statistical analysis showed that an assumed methylation cutoff of 9 % led to an overestimation of responders. All patients in the 10-29 % methylation group relapsed before the 18-month evaluation. Patients with a methylation status ≥30 % showed a median overall survival of 25.2 months compared to 15.2 months in all other patients, confirming this value as the best methylation cutoff. Despite wide variability among individual profiles, single CpG island analysis did not reveal any correlation between single CpG island methylation values and relapse or death. Specific CpG island methylation status did not influence the predictive value of MGMT. The predictive role of MGMT promoter methylation was maintained only with a cutoff value ≥30 %. PMID:27029617

  2. Early Negative Affect Predicts Anxiety, Not Autism, in Preschool Boys with Fragile X Syndrome

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tonnsen, Bridgette L.; Malone, Patrick S.; Hatton, Deborah D.; Roberts, Jane E.

    2013-01-01

    Children with fragile X syndrome (FXS) face high risk for anxiety disorders, yet no studies have explored FXS as a high-risk sample for investigating early manifestations of anxiety outcomes. Negative affect is one of the most salient predictors of problem behaviors and has been associated with both anxiety and autistic outcomes in clinical and…

  3. Prediction of Negative Attitude from Congruity, Summation, and Logarithm Formulae for the Evaluation of Complex Stimuli

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anderson, Lynn R.

    1970-01-01

    The purpose of the study was to Compare the efficacy of an averaging (congruity) formula vs. an additive formula for the evaluation of complex stimuli when negative adjectives were used to describe the attitude topic. A logarithm formula proposed by Mannis, Gleason, and Dawes was also used. (DB)

  4. Reduction in delta activity predicted improved negative affect in Major Depressive Disorder.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Philip; Goldschmied, Jennifer; Casement, Melynda; Kim, Hyang Sook; Hoffmann, Robert; Armitage, Roseanne; Deldin, Patricia

    2015-08-30

    While prior research has demonstrated a paradoxical antidepressant effect of slow-wave disruption (SWD), the specific dimensions of depression affected is still unclear. The current study aimed to extend this research by utilizing a dimensional approach in examining the antidepressant effects of SWD. Of particular interest is the affective dimension, as negative affect in depression is arguably the most salient characteristic of depression. This sample included 16 individuals with depression (10 female) recruited from the community. Participants slept in the lab for three nights (adaptation, baseline night, and SWD) with polysomnography, and completed measures of negative affect and depression severity the following morning. Results show that reduction in delta power was linearly associated with improved negative affect. Comparison of individual change scores revealed that half of the individuals showed improved negative affect, which is comparable to the reported 40-60% antidepressant response rate to sleep deprivation. Results suggest that vulnerability in the sleep homeostatic system may be a contributing individual differences factor in response to slow-wave disruption in depression. PMID:26123231

  5. Low Dispositional Mindfulness Predicts Self-Medication of Negative Emotion with Prescription Opioids

    PubMed Central

    Garland, Eric L.; Hanley, Adam W.; Thomas, Elizabeth A.; Knoll, Paul; Ferraro, Jeffrey

    2014-01-01

    Objectives Although evidence is mounting that opioids are abused to self-medicate negative emotions, little is known about the traits and factors linked to opioid self-medication. One potentially crucial psychological correlate is dispositional mindfulness. Thus, the purpose of this study was to describe the prevalence of opioid self-medication among a treatment-seeking sample of prescription opioid dependent individuals, and to specifically examine the relationship between dispositional mindfulness and opioid self-medication. Methods Participants in acute detoxification or intensive outpatient treatment for prescription opioid dependence (n = 79) were recruited from a regional hospital’s addictions treatment unit for this cross-sectional study. Sociodemographic data were collected along with surveys of opioid self-medication, pain level, and dispositional mindfulness. Results Self-medication of negative affective states with opioids was quite common - with 94.9% of individuals sampled reporting self-medication behaviors. In adjusted analyses, individuals engaging in more frequent opioid use tended to self-medicate negative emotions with opioids more often (β = −.33, p < .05). Importantly, irrespective of opioid use frequency and other clinical and sociodemographic covariates, dispositional mindfulness was inversely associated with opioid self-medication (β = −.42, p < .001), such that less mindful individuals reported using opioids more frequently to self-medicate negative emotions. Conclusions Self-medication of negative emotions with opioids was prevalent in this sample and related to low dispositional mindfulness. Plausibly, increasing mindfulness may decrease opioid self-medication. Addictive automaticity and emotion regulation are discussed as potential mechanisms linking low dispositional mindfulness and self-medication. PMID:25469652

  6. Amygdala Response to Negative Stimuli Predicts PTSD Symptom Onset following a Terrorist Attack

    PubMed Central

    McLaughlin, Katie A.; Busso, Daniel S.; Duys, Andrea; Green, Jennifer Greif; Alves, Sonia; Way, Marcus; Sheridan, Margaret A.

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE Individuals with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) exhibit heightened amygdala reactivity and atypical activation patterns in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) in response to negative emotional information. It is unknown whether these aspects of neural function are risk factors for PTSD or consequences of either trauma exposure or onset of the disorder. We had a unique opportunity to investigate this issue following the terrorist attacks at the 2013 Boston Marathon and the ensuing manhunt and shelter in place order. We examined associations of neural function measured prior to the attack with PTSD symptom onset related to these events. METHODS A sample of 15 adolescents (mean age=16.5 years) who previously participated in a neuroimaging study completed a survey assessing posttraumatic symptoms related to the terrorist attack. We examined blood oxygen-level dependent (BOLD) response to viewing and actively down-regulating emotional responses to negative stimuli in regions previously associated with PTSD, including the amygdala, hippocampus, and mPFC, as prospective predictors of posttraumatic symptom onset. RESULTS Increased BOLD signal to negative emotional stimuli in the left amygdala was strongly associated with posttraumatic symptoms following the attack. Reduced bilateral hippocampal activation during effortful attempts to down-regulate emotional responses to negative stimuli was also associated with greater posttraumatic symptoms. Associations of amygdala reactivity with posttraumatic symptoms were robust to controls for pre-existing depression, anxiety, and PTSD symptoms and prior exposure to violence. CONCLUSIONS Amygdala reactivity to negative emotional information might represent a neurobiological marker of vulnerability to traumatic stress and, potentially, a risk factor for PTSD. PMID:24995938

  7. Sensitivity, Specificity, and Predictive Values of Pediatric Metabolic Syndrome Components in Relation to Adult Metabolic Syndrome: The Princeton LRC Follow-up Study

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Terry T-K; Nansel, Tonja R.; Belsheim, Allen R.; Morrison, John A.

    2008-01-01

    Objective To estimate the sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of pediatric metabolic syndrome (MetS) components (obesity, fasting glucose, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein, and blood pressure) at various cutoffs in relation to adult MetS. Study design Data from the NHLBI Lipid Research Clinics (LRC) Princeton Prevalence Study (1973–76) and the Princeton Follow-up Study (PFS, 2000-4) were used to calculate sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values for each component at a given cutoff, as well as for aggregates of components. Results Individual pediatric components alone showed low to moderate sensitivity, high specificity, and moderate predictive values in relation to adult MetS. When all five pediatric MetS components were considered, the presence of at least one abnormality had higher sensitivity for adult MetS than individual components alone. When multiple abnormalities were mandatory for MetS, positive predictive value was high and sensitivity was low. Childhood body mass alone showed neither high sensitivity nor high positive predictive value for adult MetS. Conclusions Considering multiple metabolic variables in childhood can improve the predictive utility for adult MetS, compared to each component or body mass alone. MetS variables may be useful for identifying some at risk children for prevention interventions. PMID:18206687

  8. Unsigned value prediction-error modulates the motor system in absence of choice.

    PubMed

    Vassena, Eliana; Cobbaert, Stephanie; Andres, Michael; Fias, Wim; Verguts, Tom

    2015-11-15

    Human actions are driven by the pursuit of goals, especially when achieving these goals entails a reward. Accordingly, recent work showed that anticipating a reward in a motor task influences the motor system, boosting motor excitability and increasing overall readiness. Attaining a reward typically requires some mental or physical effort. Recent neuroimaging evidence suggested that both reward expectation and effort requirements are encoded by a partially overlapping brain network. Moreover, reward and effort information are combined in an integrative value signal. However, whether and how mental effort is integrated with reward at the motor level during task preparation remains unclear. To address these issues, we implemented a mental effort task where reward expectation and effort requirements were manipulated. During task preparation, TMS was delivered on the motor cortex and motor-evoked potentials (MEPs) were recorded on the right hand muscles to probe motor excitability. The results showed an interaction of effort and reward in modulating the motor system, reflecting an unsigned value prediction-error signal. Crucially, this was observed in the motor system in absence of a value-based decision or value-driven action selection. This suggests a high-level cognitive factor such as unsigned value prediction-error can modulate the motor system. Interestingly, effort-related motor excitability was also modulated by individual differences in tendency to engage in (and enjoy) mental effort, as measured by the Need for Cognition questionnaire, underlining a role of subjective effort experience in value-driven preparation for action. PMID:26254588

  9. The application of SEAT values for predicting how compliant seats with backrests influence vibration discomfort.

    PubMed

    Basri, Bazil; Griffin, Michael J

    2014-11-01

    The extent to which a seat can provide useful attenuation of vehicle vibration depends on three factors: the characteristics of the vehicle motion, the vibration transmissibility of the seat, and the sensitivity of the body to vibration. The 'seat effective amplitude transmissibility' (i.e., SEAT value) reflects how these three factors vary with the frequency and the direction of vibration so as to predict the vibration isolation efficiency of a seat. The SEAT value is mostly used to select seat cushions or seat suspensions based on the transmission of vertical vibration to the principal supporting surface of a seat. This study investigated the accuracy of SEAT values in predicting how seats with backrests influence the discomfort caused by multiple-input vibration. Twelve male subjects participated in a four-part experiment to determine equivalent comfort contours, the relative discomfort, the location of discomfort, and seat transmissibility with three foam seats and a rigid reference seat at 14 frequencies of vibration in the range 1-20 Hz at magnitudes of vibration from 0.2 to 1.6 ms(-2) r.m.s. The 'measured seat dynamic discomfort' (MSDD) was calculated for each foam seat from the ratio of the vibration acceleration required to cause similar discomfort with the foam seat and with the rigid reference seat. Using the frequency weightings in current standards, the SEAT values of each seat were calculated from the ratio of overall ride values with the foam seat to the overall ride values with the rigid reference seat, and compared to the corresponding MSDD at each frequency. The SEAT values provided good predictions of how the foam seats increased vibration discomfort at frequencies around the 4-Hz resonance but reduced vibration discomfort at frequencies greater than about 6.3 Hz, with discrepancies explained by a known limitation of the frequency weightings. PMID:24793821

  10. Midbrain dopamine neurons compute inferred and cached value prediction errors in a common framework

    PubMed Central

    Sadacca, Brian F; Jones, Joshua L; Schoenbaum, Geoffrey

    2016-01-01

    Midbrain dopamine neurons have been proposed to signal reward prediction errors as defined in temporal difference (TD) learning algorithms. While these models have been extremely powerful in interpreting dopamine activity, they typically do not use value derived through inference in computing errors. This is important because much real world behavior – and thus many opportunities for error-driven learning – is based on such predictions. Here, we show that error-signaling rat dopamine neurons respond to the inferred, model-based value of cues that have not been paired with reward and do so in the same framework as they track the putative cached value of cues previously paired with reward. This suggests that dopamine neurons access a wider variety of information than contemplated by standard TD models and that, while their firing conforms to predictions of TD models in some cases, they may not be restricted to signaling errors from TD predictions. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.13665.001 PMID:26949249

  11. Poverty, household chaos, and interparental aggression predict children's ability to recognize and modulate negative emotions.

    PubMed

    Raver, C Cybele; Blair, Clancy; Garrett-Peters, Patricia

    2015-08-01

    The following prospective longitudinal study considers the ways that protracted exposure to verbal and physical aggression between parents may take a substantial toll on emotional adjustment for 1,025 children followed from 6 to 58 months of age. Exposure to chronic poverty from infancy to early childhood as well as multiple measures of household chaos were also included as predictors of children's ability to recognize and modulate negative emotions in order to disentangle the role of interparental conflict from the socioeconomic forces that sometimes accompany it. Analyses revealed that exposure to greater levels of interparental conflict, more chaos in the household, and a higher number of years in poverty can be empirically distinguished as key contributors to 58-month-olds' ability to recognize and modulate negative emotion. Implications for models of experiential canalization of emotional processes within the context of adversity are discussed. PMID:25215541

  12. Amygdala Perfusion Is Predicted by Its Functional Connectivity with the Ventromedial Prefrontal Cortex and Negative Affect

    PubMed Central

    Coombs III, Garth; Loggia, Marco L.; Greve, Douglas N.; Holt, Daphne J.

    2014-01-01

    Background Previous studies have shown that the activity of the amygdala is elevated in people experiencing clinical and subclinical levels of anxiety and depression (negative affect). It has been proposed that a reduction in inhibitory input to the amygdala from the prefrontal cortex and resultant over-activity of the amygdala underlies this association. Prior studies have found relationships between negative affect and 1) amygdala over-activity and 2) reduced amygdala-prefrontal connectivity. However, it is not known whether elevated amygdala activity is associated with decreased amygdala-prefrontal connectivity during negative affect states. Methods Here we used resting-state arterial spin labeling (ASL) and blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) in combination to test this model, measuring the activity (regional cerebral blood flow, rCBF) and functional connectivity (correlated fluctuations in the BOLD signal) of one subregion of the amygdala with strong connections with the prefrontal cortex, the basolateral nucleus (BLA), and subsyndromal anxiety levels in 38 healthy subjects. Results BLA rCBF was strongly correlated with anxiety levels. Moreover, both BLA rCBF and anxiety were inversely correlated with the strength of the functional coupling of the BLA with the caudal ventromedial prefrontal cortex. Lastly, BLA perfusion was found to be a mediator of the relationship between BLA-prefrontal connectivity and anxiety. Conclusions These results show that both perfusion of the BLA and a measure of its functional coupling with the prefrontal cortex directly index anxiety levels in healthy subjects, and that low BLA-prefrontal connectivity may lead to increased BLA activity and resulting anxiety. Thus, these data provide key evidence for an often-cited circuitry model of negative affect, using a novel, multi-modal imaging approach. PMID:24816735

  13. Value of Ki-67 expression in triple-negative breast cancer before and after neoadjuvant chemotherapy with weekly paclitaxel plus carboplatin

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Ruo-Xi; Chen, Sheng; Jin, Xi; Shao, Zhi-Ming

    2016-01-01

    Neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NCT) is one of the main treatment strategies for patients with locally advanced breast cancer. In this study, we focused on the predictive and prognostic value of Ki-67 in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) patients who received NCT. Data from 280 patients with stage II–III TNBC were collected. All patients were treated according to the same protocol with weekly paclitaxel and carboplatin. The overall pCR rate was 33.9%. Both the categorical and linear Ki-67 were independently correlated with pCR (P < 0.001). There were also statistically significant differences among Ki-67 categories with respect to clinical response (P < 0.001), Miller-Payne (MP) grades (P < 0.001), and node status (P < 0.001). A significant reduction of Ki-67 after NCT was most likely observed in patients with a relatively better response. In the multivariate model for non-pCR patients, Ki-67 reduction presented an independent prognostic value for relapse of disease (HR = 0.986, 95% CI: 0.978–0.994; P = 0.001). This study had indicated that the primary Ki-67 might help in further classifying TNBCs into subtypes with different responses to chemotherapy and a significant reduction of Ki-67 after treatment could indicate a favorable prognosis in non-pCR patients. PMID:27426056

  14. The value of surrogate endpoints for predicting real-world survival across five cancer types.

    PubMed

    Shafrin, Jason; Brookmeyer, Ron; Peneva, Desi; Park, Jinhee; Zhang, Jie; Figlin, Robert A; Lakdawalla, Darius N

    2016-04-01

    Objective It is unclear how well different outcome measures in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) perform in predicting real-world cancer survival. We assess the ability of RCT overall survival (OS) and surrogate endpoints - progression-free survival (PFS) and time to progression (TTP) - to predict real-world OS across five cancers. Methods We identified 20 treatments and 31 indications for breast, colorectal, lung, ovarian, and pancreatic cancer that had a phase III RCT reporting median OS and median PFS or TTP. Median real-world OS was determined using a Kaplan-Meier estimator applied to patients in the Surveillance and Epidemiology End Results (SEER)-Medicare database (1991-2010). Performance of RCT OS and PFS/TTP in predicting real-world OS was measured using t-tests, median absolute prediction error, and R(2) from linear regressions. Results Among 72,600 SEER-Medicare patients similar to RCT participants, median survival was 5.9 months for trial surrogates, 14.1 months for trial OS, and 13.4 months for real-world OS. For this sample, regression models using clinical trial OS and trial surrogates as independent variables predicted real-world OS significantly better than models using surrogates alone (P = 0.026). Among all real-world patients using sample treatments (N = 309,182), however, adding trial OS did not improve predictive power over predictions based on surrogates alone (P = 0.194). Results were qualitatively similar using median absolute prediction error and R(2) metrics. Conclusions Among the five tumor types investigated, trial OS and surrogates were each independently valuable in predicting real-world OS outcomes for patients similar to trial participants. In broader real-world populations, however, trial OS added little incremental value over surrogates alone. PMID:26743800

  15. [Prediction of SPAD value in oilseed rape leaves using hyperspectral imaging technique].

    PubMed

    Ding, Xi-bin; Liu, Fei; Zhang, Chu; He, Yong

    2015-02-01

    In the present work, prediction models of SPAD value (Soil and Plant Analyzer Development, often used as a parameter to indicate chlorophyll content) in oilseed rape leaves were successfully built using hyperspectral imaging technique. The hy perspectral images of 160 oilseed rape leaf samples in the spectral range of 380-1030 nm were acquired. Average spectrum was extracted from the region of interest (ROI) of each sample. We chose spectral data in the spectral range of 500-900 nm for analysis. Using Monte Carlo partial least squares(MC-PLS) algorithm, 13 samples were identified as outliers and eliminated. Based on the spectral information and measured SPAD values of the rest 147 samples, several estimation models have been built based on different parameters using different algorithms for comparison, including: (1) a SPAD value estimation model based on partial least squares(PLS) in the whole wavelength region of 500-900 nm; (2) a SPAD value estimation model based on successive projections algorithmcombined with PLS(SPA-PLS); (3) 4 kind of simple experience SPAD value estimation models in which red edge position was used as an argument; (4) 4 kind of simple experience SPAD value estimation models in which three vegetation indexes R710/R760, (R750-R705)/(R750-R705) and R860/(R550 x R708), which all have been proved to have a good relevance with chlorophyll content, were used as an argument respectively; (5) a SPAD value estimation model based on PLS using the 3 vegetation indexes mentioned above. The results indicate that the optimal prediction performance is achieved by PLS model in the whole wavelength region of 500-900 nm, which has a correlation coefficient(r(p)) of 0.8339 and a root mean squares error of predicted (RMSEP) of 1.52. The SPA-PLS model can provide avery close prediction result while the calibration computation has been significantly reduced and the calibration speed has been accelerated sharply. For simple experience models based on red edge

  16. Behavioral and electrophysiological indices of negative affect predict cocaine self-administration.

    PubMed

    Wheeler, Robert A; Twining, Robert C; Jones, Joshua L; Slater, Jennifer M; Grigson, Patricia S; Carelli, Regina M

    2008-03-13

    The motivation to seek cocaine comes in part from a dysregulation of reward processing manifested in dysphoria, or affective withdrawal. Learning is a critical aspect of drug abuse; however, it remains unclear whether drug-associated cues can elicit the emotional withdrawal symptoms that promote cocaine use. Here we report that a cocaine-associated taste cue elicited a conditioned aversive state that was behaviorally and neurophysiologically quantifiable and predicted subsequent cocaine self-administration behavior. Specifically, brief intraoral infusions of a cocaine-predictive flavored saccharin solution elicited aversive orofacial responses that predicted early-session cocaine taking in rats. The expression of aversive taste reactivity also was associated with a shift in the predominant pattern of electrophysiological activity of nucleus accumbens (NAc) neurons from inhibitory to excitatory. The dynamic nature of this conditioned switch in affect and the neural code reveals a mechanism by which cues may exert control over drug self-administration. PMID:18341996

  17. The utility and predictive value of combinations of low penetrance genes for screening and risk prediction of colorectal cancer

    PubMed Central

    Hawken, Steven J.; Greenwood, Celia M. T.; Hudson, Thomas J.; Kustra, Rafal; McLaughlin, John; Yang, Quanhe; Zanke, Brent W.

    2010-01-01

    Despite the fact that colorectal cancer (CRC) is a highly treatable form of cancer if detected early, a very low proportion of the eligible population undergoes screening for this form of cancer. Integrating a genomic screening profile as a component of existing screening programs for CRC could potentially improve the effectiveness of population screening by allowing the assignment of individuals to different types and intensities of screening and also by potentially increasing the uptake of existing screening programs. We evaluated the utility and predictive value of genomic profiling as applied to CRC, and as a potential component of a population-based cancer screening program. We generated simulated data representing a typical North American population including a variety of genetic profiles, with a range of relative risks and prevalences for individual risk genes. We then used these data to estimate parameters characterizing the predictive value of a logistic regression model built on genetic markers for CRC. Meta-analyses of genetic associations with CRC were used in building science to inform the simulation work, and to select genetic variants to include in logistic regression model-building using data from the ARCTIC study in Ontario, which included 1,200 CRC cases and a similar number of cancer-free population-based controls. Our simulations demonstrate that for reasonable assumptions involving modest relative risks for individual genetic variants, that substantial predictive power can be achieved when risk variants are common (e.g., prevalence > 20%) and data for enough risk variants are available (e.g., ~140–160). Pilot work in population data shows modest, but statistically significant predictive utility for a small collection of risk variants, smaller in effect than age and gender alone in predicting an individual’s CRC risk. Further genotyping and many more samples will be required, and indeed the discovery of many more risk loci associated with

  18. Accuracy of predicting genomic breeding values for residual feed intake in Angus and Charolais beef cattle.

    PubMed

    Chen, L; Schenkel, F; Vinsky, M; Crews, D H; Li, C

    2013-10-01

    In beef cattle, phenotypic data that are difficult and/or costly to measure, such as feed efficiency, and DNA marker genotypes are usually available on a small number of animals of different breeds or populations. To achieve a maximal accuracy of genomic prediction using the phenotype and genotype data, strategies for forming a training population to predict genomic breeding values (GEBV) of the selection candidates need to be evaluated. In this study, we examined the accuracy of predicting GEBV for residual feed intake (RFI) based on 522 Angus and 395 Charolais steers genotyped on SNP with the Illumina Bovine SNP50 Beadchip for 3 training population forming strategies: within breed, across breed, and by pooling data from the 2 breeds (i.e., combined). Two other scenarios with the training and validation data split by birth year and by sire family within a breed were also investigated to assess the impact of genetic relationships on the accuracy of genomic prediction. Three statistical methods including the best linear unbiased prediction with the relationship matrix defined based on the pedigree (PBLUP), based on the SNP genotypes (GBLUP), and a Bayesian method (BayesB) were used to predict the GEBV. The results showed that the accuracy of the GEBV prediction was the highest when the prediction was within breed and when the validation population had greater genetic relationships with the training population, with a maximum of 0.58 for Angus and 0.64 for Charolais. The within-breed prediction accuracies dropped to 0.29 and 0.38, respectively, when the validation populations had a minimal pedigree link with the training population. When the training population of a different breed was used to predict the GEBV of the validation population, that is, across-breed genomic prediction, the accuracies were further reduced to 0.10 to 0.22, depending on the prediction method used. Pooling data from the 2 breeds to form the training population resulted in accuracies increased

  19. Theoretical prediction of relative and absolute pKa values of aminopyridines.

    PubMed

    Caballero, N A; Melendez, F J; Muñoz-Caro, C; Niño, A

    2006-11-20

    This work presents a study aimed at the theoretical prediction of pK(a) values of aminopyridines, as a factor responsible for the activity of these compounds as blockers of the voltage-dependent K(+) channels. To cover a large range of pK(a) values, a total of seven substituted pyridines is considered as a calibration set: pyridine, 2-aminopyridine, 3-aminopyridine, 4-aminopyridine, 2-chloropyridine, 3-chloropyridine, and 4-methylpirydine. Using ab initio G1, G2 and G3 extrapolation methods, and the CPCM variant of the Polarizable Continuum Model for solvation, we calculate gas phase and solvation free energies. pK(a) values are obtained from these data using a thermodynamic cycle for describing protonation in aqueous and gas phases. The results show that the relatively inexpensive G1 level of theory is the most accurate at predicting pK(a) values in aminopyridines. The highest standard deviation with respect to the experimental data is 0.69 pK(a) units for absolute values calculations. The difference increases slightly to 0.74 pK(a) units when the pK(a) is computed relative to the pyridine molecule. Considering only compounds at least as basic as pyridine (the values of interest for bioactive aminopyridines) the error falls to 0.10 and 0.12 pK(a) units for the absolute and relative computations, respectively. The technique can be used to predict the effect of electronegative substituents in the pK(a) of 4-AP, the most active aminopyridine considered in this work. Thus, 2-chloro and 3-chloro-4-aminopyridine are taken into account. The results show a decrease of the pK(a), suggesting that these compounds are less active than 4-AP at blocking the K(+) channel. PMID:16844281

  20. The Values of CA-125, Progesterone, ß-HCG and Estradiol in the Early Prediction of Ectopic Pregnancy

    PubMed Central

    Abdul-Hussein, Meena M.; Abdul-Rasheed, Omar F.; Al-Moayed, Hala Abdul Qadir

    2012-01-01

    Objective To explore the diagnostic value and measurement of serum CA-125, the single measurement of progesterone (P), ß-HCG, and estradiol (E2) in the early diagnosis of ectopic pregnancy. Methods Serum levels of CA-125, progesterone, ß-HCG and estradiol were measured by Enzyme Linked Immuno Sorbent Assay (ELISA) techniques in 40 symptomatic women with ectopic pregnancy and 24 women with normal intrauterine pregnancy during gestational age of 4-10 weeks at Al-Kadhmiya Teaching Hospital, Baghdad, Iraq, between November 2010 and June 2011. Results The mean ±SEM serum levels of CA-125, progesterone, ß-HCG, and estradiol in patients with ectopic pregnancies (16.51±2.39U/ml; 2.54±0.47ng/ml; 72.75±12.27mIU/ml; 13.4±2.14pg/ml; respectively) were significantly lower than the levels in normal intrauterine pregnancies (74.25±18.5U/ml; 28.36±3.7ng/ml; 249.54±18.0mIU/ml; 112.7±23.6pg/ml; respectively). When using a CA-125 concentration of 20.5 U/ml as a cut-off value for the diagnosis of ectopic pregnancy, sensitivity was 75.7%, specificity 100%, the positive predictive value was 100% and the negative predictive value 71.4%. Conclusion The measurement of CA-125 and progesterone levels is useful in discriminating ectopic from normal gestations. PMID:22496937

  1. Threshold Values for Identification of Contamination Predicted by Reduced-Order Models

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Last, George V.; Murray, Christopher J.; Bott, Yi-Ju; Brown, Christopher F.

    2014-12-31

    The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) Project is developing reduced-order models to evaluate potential impacts on underground sources of drinking water (USDWs) if CO2 or brine leaks from deep CO2 storage reservoirs. Threshold values, below which there would be no predicted impacts, were determined for portions of two aquifer systems. These threshold values were calculated using an interwell approach for determining background groundwater concentrations that is an adaptation of methods described in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Unified Guidance for Statistical Analysis of Groundwater Monitoring Data at RCRA Facilities.

  2. Predisaster Trait Anxiety and Negative Affect Predict Posttraumatic Stress in Youths after Hurricane Katrina

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weems, Carl F.; Pina, Armando A.; Costa, Natalie M.; Watts, Sarah E.; Taylor, Leslie K.; Cannon, Melinda F.

    2007-01-01

    On the basis of theory and previous research, it was hypothesized that predisaster child trait anxiety would predict disaster-related posttraumatic stress symptoms and generalized anxiety disorder symptoms, even after controlling for the number of hurricane exposure events. Results support this hypothesis and further indicate that predisaster…

  3. Local morphology predicts functional organization of experienced value signals in the human orbitofrontal cortex.

    PubMed

    Li, Yansong; Sescousse, Guillaume; Amiez, Céline; Dreher, Jean-Claude

    2015-01-28

    Experienced value representations within the human orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) are thought to be organized through an antero-posterior gradient corresponding to secondary versus primary rewards. Whether this gradient depends upon specific morphological features within this region, which displays considerable intersubject variability, remains unknown. To test the existence of such relationships, we performed a subject-by-subject analysis of fMRI data taking into account the local morphology of each individual. We tested 38 subjects engaged in a simple incentive delay task manipulating both monetary and visual erotic rewards, focusing on reward outcome (experienced value signal). The results showed reliable and dissociable primary (erotic) and secondary (monetary) experienced value signals at specific OFC sulci locations. More specifically, experienced value signal induced by monetary reward outcome was systematically located in the rostral portion of the medial orbital sulcus. Experienced value signal related to erotic reward outcome was located more posteriorly, that is, at the intersection between the caudal portion of the medial orbital sulcus and transverse orbital sulcus. Thus, the localizations of distinct experienced value signals can be predicted from the organization of the human orbitofrontal sulci. This study provides insights into the anatomo-functional parcellation of the anteroposterior OFC gradient observed for secondary versus primary rewards because there is a direct relationship between value signals at the time of reward outcome and unique OFC sulci locations. PMID:25632140

  4. Incremental value of hormonal therapy for deep vein thrombosis prediction: an adjusted Wells score for women.

    PubMed

    de Barros, Márcio Vinícius Lins; Arancibia, Ana Elisa Loyola; Costa, Ana Paula; Bueno, Fernando Brito; Martins, Marcela Aparecida Corrêa; Magalhães, Maria Cláudia; Silva, José Luiz Padilha; de Bastos, Marcos

    2016-04-01

    Deep venous thrombosis (DVT) management includes prediction rule evaluation to define standard pretest DVT probabilities in symptomatic patients. The aim of this study was to evaluate the incremental usefulness of hormonal therapy to the Wells prediction rules for DVT in women. We studied women undertaking compressive ultrasound scanning for suspected DVT. We adjusted the Wells score for DVT, taking into account the β-coefficients of the logistic regression model. Data discrimination was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The adjusted score calibration was assessed graphically and by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Reclassification tables and the net reclassification index were used for the adjusted score comparison with the Wells score for DVT. We observed 461 women including 103 DVT events. The mean age was 56 years (±21 years). The adjusted logistic regression model included hormonal therapy and six Wells prediction rules for DVT. The adjusted score weights ranged from -4 to 4. Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed a nonsignificant P value (0.69) and the calibration graph showed no differences between the expected and the observed values. The area under the ROC curve was 0.92 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.90-0.95] for the adjusted model and 0.87 (95% CI 0.84-0.91) for the Wells score for DVT (Delong test, P value < 0.01). Net reclassification index for the adjusted score was 0.22 (95% CI 0.11-0.33, P value < 0.01). Our results suggest an incremental usefulness of hormonal therapy as an independent DVT prediction rule in women compared with the Wells score for DVT. The adjusted score must be evaluated in different populations before clinical use. PMID:26757018

  5. Prognostic and predictive value of immunological parameters for chemoradioimmunotherapy in patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Karakhanova, S; Ryschich, E; Mosl, B; Harig, S; Jäger, D; Schmidt, J; Hartwig, W; Werner, J; Bazhin, A V

    2015-01-01

    Background: Chemoradioimmunotherapy of patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma from the CapRI trial did not show any benefit of interferon-α in addition to a 5-fluorouracil (5FU)-based treatment. The aim of this study was to identify immunological parameters in patients from this trial to be used for predictive and/or prognostic purposes. Methods: The following methods were used: tumour immunohistology, FACS analyses, cytokine measurement, as well as cytotoxicity and ELIspot. Immunological parameters were correlated with patients' survival using the Kaplan–Meier method. Results: Irrespective of therapy type, high lymphocyte accumulation in tumours and frequencies of NK cells and effector (eff) CD8+ T cells in peripheral blood of the patients were associated with patients' survival. Amount of CD3+ and effector-memory CD8+ blood lymphocytes, expression of CD152 and interleukin (IL)-2 serum level showed a predictive value for chemoradioimmunotherapy. Tumoural accumulation of CD3+ and CD8+ cells was predictive for outcome of chemotherapy alone. Besides, we identified the frequencies of CD3+ lymphocytes, effCD8+ T cells and NK cells in the peripheral blood of the patients, and IL-10 amount in serum, to be predictive values for 5FU-based chemotherapy. Conclusions: Immunological parameters, identified in this trial as possible markers, may be of interest in personalized medicine towards the improvement of the treatment and prognosis of pancreatic carcinoma patients. PMID:25742476

  6. Time course of thrombocytes in burn patients and its predictive value for outcome.

    PubMed

    Marck, Roos Elisabeth; Montagne, Harriet Leonie; Tuinebreijer, Willem Eduard; Breederveld, Roelf Simon

    2013-06-01

    Thrombocytopenia is common in trauma and critically ill patients and is associated with a poor outcomes. The objective of this retrospective study was to investigate the course of thrombocyte concentration changes in burn patients, the influences of various factors on this course, and a possible predictive value of thrombocyte counts on outcome in 244 patients admitted to our burn centre. Their thrombocyte counts were obtained until 50 days after burn. Data on patient demographics, total percentage burned surface area (%TBSA), sepsis and mortality were collected. Multilevel multivariable analysis was performed to investigate the influence of the variables on the platelet course. Cox regression analysis was performed to analyse the predictive value of the variables for mortality. A distinct pattern of thrombocyte counts was observed, with a nadir at day 3 followed by a peak at day 15 and a temporary thrombocytosis. %TBSA and age (p<0.05) influence this course. The mean thrombocyte course of septic and non-surviving patients depicts a significant lower nadir. Furthermore, higher age, %TBSA and low thrombocyte counts at the peak are predictive for 50 day mortality (p<0.05). Platelets follow a distinct course after burn, influenced by %TBSA and age. These factors and a low thrombocyte peak count predict mortality. PMID:23490002

  7. Predictive Value of an Early Amplitude Integrated Electroencephalogram and Neurologic Examination

    PubMed Central

    Pappas, Athina; McDonald, Scott A.; Laptook, Abbot R.; Bara, Rebecca; Ehrenkranz, Richard A.; Tyson, Jon E.; Goldberg, Ronald; Donovan, Edward F.; Fanaroff, Avroy A.; Das, Abhik; Poole, W. Kenneth; Walsh, Michele; Higgins, Rosemary D.; Welsh, Cherie; Salhab, Walid; Carlo, Waldemar A.; Poindexter, Brenda; Stoll, Barbara J.; Guillet, Ronnie; Finer, Neil N.; Stevenson, David K.; Bauer, Charles R.

    2011-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To examine the predictive validity of the amplitude integrated electroencephalogram (aEEG) and stage of encephalopathy among infants with hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy (HIE) eligible for therapeutic whole-body hypothermia. DESIGN: Neonates were eligible for this prospective study if moderate or severe HIE occurred at <6 hours and an aEEG was obtained at <9 hours of age. The primary outcome was death or moderate/severe disability at 18 months. RESULTS: There were 108 infants (71 with moderate HIE and 37 with severe HIE) enrolled in the study. aEEG findings were categorized as normal, with continuous normal voltage (n = 12) or discontinuous normal voltage (n = 12), or abnormal, with burst suppression (n = 22), continuous low voltage (n = 26), or flat tracing (n = 36). At 18 months, 53 infants (49%) experienced death or disability. Severe HIE and an abnormal aEEG were related to the primary outcome with univariate analysis, whereas severe HIE alone was predictive of outcome with multivariate analysis. Addition of aEEG pattern to HIE stage did not add to the predictive value of the model; the area under the curve changed from 0.72 to 0.75 (P = .19). CONCLUSIONS: The aEEG background pattern did not significantly enhance the value of the stage of encephalopathy at study entry in predicting death and disability among infants with HIE. PMID:21669899

  8. Belief about nicotine selectively modulates value and reward prediction error signals in smokers.

    PubMed

    Gu, Xiaosi; Lohrenz, Terry; Salas, Ramiro; Baldwin, Philip R; Soltani, Alireza; Kirk, Ulrich; Cinciripini, Paul M; Montague, P Read

    2015-02-24

    Little is known about how prior beliefs impact biophysically described processes in the presence of neuroactive drugs, which presents a profound challenge to the understanding of the mechanisms and treatments of addiction. We engineered smokers' prior beliefs about the presence of nicotine in a cigarette smoked before a functional magnetic resonance imaging session where subjects carried out a sequential choice task. Using a model-based approach, we show that smokers' beliefs about nicotine specifically modulated learning signals (value and reward prediction error) defined by a computational model of mesolimbic dopamine systems. Belief of "no nicotine in cigarette" (compared with "nicotine in cigarette") strongly diminished neural responses in the striatum to value and reward prediction errors and reduced the impact of both on smokers' choices. These effects of belief could not be explained by global changes in visual attention and were specific to value and reward prediction errors. Thus, by modulating the expression of computationally explicit signals important for valuation and choice, beliefs can override the physical presence of a potent neuroactive compound like nicotine. These selective effects of belief demonstrate that belief can modulate model-based parameters important for learning. The implications of these findings may be far ranging because belief-dependent effects on learning signals could impact a host of other behaviors in addiction as well as in other mental health problems. PMID:25605923

  9. Stable excited Au= and Pt= negative ions: A Regge-pole prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Felfli, Z.; Msezane, A. Z.; Sokolovski, D.

    2010-03-01

    Electron elastic scattering from Au and Pt atoms is investigated in the energy region E < 4.0 eV in search of the possibility of forming and observing stable excited Au= and Pt= negative ions as Regge resonances. Total elastic cross sections (TCSs) and differential cross sections (DCSs) in both impact energy and scattering angle for the excited Au and Pt atoms are calculated. The investigation uses the recent Regge-pole methodology [1] wherein is embedded the vital electron-electron correlations together with a Thomas-Fermi type potential that incorporates the crucial core-polarization interaction, essential for the existence and stability of most negative ions. From the characteristic dramatically sharp resonances in the elastic total and Mulholland partial cross sections we identify excited Au= and Pt= anions and extract their binding energies (BEs). Ramsauer-Townsend minima and shape resonances are also determined. The DCSs also yield the BEs of the Au= and Pt= anions [2]. The TCSs for the excited and ground Au= and Pt= anions are contrasted as well; they provide a clue to the significant catalytic properties of their nanoparticles. [1] D. Sokolovski et al, Phys. Rev. A 76, 012705 (2007); [2] Z. Felfli et al, NIMB, At Press (2010). Supported by U.S. DOE, AFOSR and CAU CFNM, NSF-CREST Program

  10. A Gram-Negative Bacterial Secreted Protein Types Prediction Method Based on PSI-BLAST Profile

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Prediction of secreted protein types based solely on sequence data remains to be a challenging problem. In this study, we extract the long-range correlation information and linear correlation information from position-specific score matrix (PSSM). A total of 6800 features are extracted at 17 different gaps; then, 309 features are selected by a filter feature selection method based on the training set. To verify the performance of our method, jackknife and independent dataset tests are performed on the test set and the reported overall accuracies are 93.60% and 100%, respectively. Comparison of our results with the existing method shows that our method provides the favorable performance for secreted protein type prediction. PMID:27563663

  11. Dynamic Divisive Normalization Predicts Time-Varying Value Coding in Decision-Related Circuits

    PubMed Central

    LoFaro, Thomas; Webb, Ryan; Glimcher, Paul W.

    2014-01-01

    Normalization is a widespread neural computation, mediating divisive gain control in sensory processing and implementing a context-dependent value code in decision-related frontal and parietal cortices. Although decision-making is a dynamic process with complex temporal characteristics, most models of normalization are time-independent and little is known about the dynamic interaction of normalization and choice. Here, we show that a simple differential equation model of normalization explains the characteristic phasic-sustained pattern of cortical decision activity and predicts specific normalization dynamics: value coding during initial transients, time-varying value modulation, and delayed onset of contextual information. Empirically, we observe these predicted dynamics in saccade-related neurons in monkey lateral intraparietal cortex. Furthermore, such models naturally incorporate a time-weighted average of past activity, implementing an intrinsic reference-dependence in value coding. These results suggest that a single network mechanism can explain both transient and sustained decision activity, emphasizing the importance of a dynamic view of normalization in neural coding. PMID:25429145

  12. HDAC4, a prognostic and chromosomal instability marker, refines the predictive value of MGMT promoter methylation.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Wen; Li, Mingyang; Cai, Jinquan; Wang, Kuanyu; Zhang, Chuanbao; Bao, Zhaoshi; Liu, Yanwei; Wu, Anhua

    2015-04-01

    Chromosomal instability is a hallmark of human cancers and is closely linked to tumorigenesis. The prognostic value of molecular signatures of chromosomal instability (CIN) has been validated in various cancers. However, few studies have examined the relationship between CIN and glioma. Histone deacetylases (HDACs) regulate chromosome structure and are linked to the loss of genomic integrity in cancer cells. In this study, the prognostic value of HDAC4 expression and its association with markers of CIN were investigated by analyzing data from our own and four other large sample databases. The results showed that HDAC4 expression is downregulated in high- as compared to low-grade glioma and is associated with a favorable clinical outcome. HDAC4 expression and CIN were closely related in glioma from both functional and statistical standpoints. Moreover, the predictive value of the O-6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) promoter methylation status-a widely used glioma marker-was refined by HDAC4 expression level, which was significantly related to CIN in our study. In conclusion, we propose that HDAC4 expression, a prognostic and CIN marker, enhances the predictive value of MGMT promoter methylation status for identifying patients who will most benefit from radiochemotherapy. PMID:25557107

  13. Dynamic divisive normalization predicts time-varying value coding in decision-related circuits.

    PubMed

    Louie, Kenway; LoFaro, Thomas; Webb, Ryan; Glimcher, Paul W

    2014-11-26

    Normalization is a widespread neural computation, mediating divisive gain control in sensory processing and implementing a context-dependent value code in decision-related frontal and parietal cortices. Although decision-making is a dynamic process with complex temporal characteristics, most models of normalization are time-independent and little is known about the dynamic interaction of normalization and choice. Here, we show that a simple differential equation model of normalization explains the characteristic phasic-sustained pattern of cortical decision activity and predicts specific normalization dynamics: value coding during initial transients, time-varying value modulation, and delayed onset of contextual information. Empirically, we observe these predicted dynamics in saccade-related neurons in monkey lateral intraparietal cortex. Furthermore, such models naturally incorporate a time-weighted average of past activity, implementing an intrinsic reference-dependence in value coding. These results suggest that a single network mechanism can explain both transient and sustained decision activity, emphasizing the importance of a dynamic view of normalization in neural coding. PMID:25429145

  14. Predicting interest in cosmetic surgery: interactive effects of appearance-based rejection sensitivity and negative appearance comments.

    PubMed

    Park, Lora E; Calogero, Rachel M; Harwin, Melissa J; DiRaddo, Ann Marie

    2009-06-01

    This study investigated effects of appearance-based rejection sensitivity (Appearance-RS) - the dispositional tendency to anxiously expect rejection based on one's appearance - in a sample of 133 American college students. Participants were randomly assigned to write an essay about either a negative or positive appearance comment they had received in the past. Compared to participants with lower Appearance-RS, those with higher Appearance-RS felt more rejected and expressed greater interest in cosmetic surgery after recalling a negative versus positive appearance comment. Content analysis of the essays revealed that negative appearance comments were most often made in reference to one's body weight/shape/size; positive appearance comments were most often made in reference to one's overall appearance. Peers/friends/romantic partners were the most frequently cited source of both positive and negative appearance comments. Overall, this research suggests that the interaction between the person and the situation is important to consider when predicting cosmetic surgery interest. PMID:19409866

  15. Predictive Values of Red Blood Cell Distribution Width in Assessing Severity of Chronic Heart Failure

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Sen; Wang, Ping; Shen, Ping-Ping; Zhou, Jian-Hua

    2016-01-01

    Background This retrospective study was performed to evaluate the value of baseline red blood cell distribution width (RDW) for predicting the severity of chronic heart failure (CHF) compared with N-terminal prohormone brain natriuretic peptide (NT-ProBNP) and other hematological and biochemical parameters. Material/Methods Hematological and biochemical parameters were obtained from 179 patients with New York Heart Association (NYHA) CHF class I (n=44), II (n=39), III (n=41), and IV (n=55). Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves were used for assessing predictive values. Results RDW increased significantly in class III and IV compared with class I (14.3±2.3% and 14.3±1.7% vs. 12.9±0.8%, P<0.01). Areas under ROCs (AUCs) of RDW and NT-ProBNP for class IV HF were 0.817 and 0.840, respectively. RDW was markedly elevated in the mortality group compared with the survival group (13.7±1.7 vs. 15.8±1.8, P<0.01). The predictive value of RDW was lower than that of NT-ProBNP but was comparable to white blood cell (WBC), neutrophil (NEU), lymphocyte (L), and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (N/L) for mortality during hospitalization, with AUCs of 0.837, 0.939, 0.858, 0.891, 0.885, and 0.885, respectively. RDW and NT-proBNP showed low predictive values for repeated admission (≥3). RDW was an independent risk factor for mortality (OR=2.531, 95% CI: 1.371–4.671). Conclusions RDW increased significantly in class III and IV patients and in the mortality group. The predictive value of RDW is comparable to NT-proBNP for class IV and lower than that of NT-proBNP for mortality. Elevated RDW is an independent risk factor for mortality. PMID:27324271

  16. Using Magnetic Resonance for Predicting Femoral Strength: Added Value with respect to Bone Densitometry

    PubMed Central

    Louis, Olivia; Fierens, Yves; Strantza, Maria; Luypaert, Robert; de Mey, Johan; Cattrysse, Erik

    2015-01-01

    Background and Purpose. To evaluate the added value of MRI with respect to peripheral quantitative computed tomography (pQCT) and dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) for predicting femoral strength. Material and Methods. Bone mineral density (BMD) of eighteen femur specimens was assessed with pQCT, DXA, and MRI (using ultrashort echo times (UTE) and the MicroView software). Subsequently biomechanical testing was performed to assess failure load. Simple and multiple linear regression were used with failure load as the dependent variable. Results. Simple linear regression allowed a prediction of failure load with either pQCT, DXA, or MRI in an r2 range of 0.41–0.48. Multiple linear regression with pQCT, DXA, and MRI yielded the best prediction (r2 = 0.68). Conclusions. The accuracy of MRI, using UTE and MicroView software, to predict femoral strength compares well with that of pQCT or DXA. Furthermore, the inclusion of MRI in a multiple-regression model yields the best prediction. PMID:26413544

  17. Protein functional properties prediction in sparsely-label PPI networks through regularized non-negative matrix factorization

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Background Predicting functional properties of proteins in protein-protein interaction (PPI) networks presents a challenging problem and has important implication in computational biology. Collective classification (CC) that utilizes both attribute features and relational information to jointly classify related proteins in PPI networks has been shown to be a powerful computational method for this problem setting. Enabling CC usually increases accuracy when given a fully-labeled PPI network with a large amount of labeled data. However, such labels can be difficult to obtain in many real-world PPI networks in which there are usually only a limited number of labeled proteins and there are a large amount of unlabeled proteins. In this case, most of the unlabeled proteins may not connected to the labeled ones, the supervision knowledge cannot be obtained effectively from local network connections. As a consequence, learning a CC model in sparsely-labeled PPI networks can lead to poor performance. Results We investigate a latent graph approach for finding an integration latent graph by exploiting various latent linkages and judiciously integrate the investigated linkages to link (separate) the proteins with similar (different) functions. We develop a regularized non-negative matrix factorization (RNMF) algorithm for CC to make protein functional properties prediction by utilizing various data sources that are available in this problem setting, including attribute features, latent graph, and unlabeled data information. In RNMF, a label matrix factorization term and a network regularization term are incorporated into the non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) objective function to seek a matrix factorization that respects the network structure and label information for classification prediction. Conclusion Experimental results on KDD Cup tasks predicting the localization and functions of proteins to yeast genes demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed RNMF method for

  18. Interest in Babies Negatively Predicts Testosterone Responses to Sexual Visual Stimuli Among Heterosexual Young Men.

    PubMed

    Zilioli, Samuele; Ponzi, Davide; Henry, Andrea; Kubicki, Konrad; Nickels, Nora; Wilson, M Claire; Maestripieri, Dario

    2016-01-01

    Men's testosterone may be an important physiological mechanism mediating motivational and behavioral aspects of the mating/parenting trade-off not only over time but also in terms of stable differences between mating-oriented and parenting-oriented individuals. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that self-reported interest in babies is inversely related to testosterone reactivity to cues of short-term mating among heterosexual young men. Among 100 participants, interest in babies was related to a slow life-history strategy, as assessed by the Mini-K questionnaire, and negatively related to testosterone responses to an erotic video. Interest in babies was not associated with baseline testosterone levels or with testosterone reactivity to nonsexual social stimuli. These results provide the first evidence that differential testosterone reactivity to sexual stimuli may be an important aspect of individual differences in life-history strategies among human males. PMID:26626441

  19. Negative affect predicts posttraumatic stress symptoms in Brazilian volunteer United Nations peacekeepers in Haiti.

    PubMed

    Souza, Wanderson F; Figueira, Ivan; Mendlowicz, Mauro V; Volchan, Eliane; Mendonça-de-Souza, Ana C; Duarte, Antônio F A; Monteiro da Silva, Angela M; Marques-Portella, Carla; Mari, Jair J; Coutinho, Evandro Silva Freire

    2008-11-01

    Our study evaluated the relationship between positive affect (PA) and negative affect (NA) traits on the development of posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) among peacekeepers. A longitudinal study with 138 army personnel deployed to a peacekeeping mission in Haiti was conducted. An instrument for measuring PA and NA traits was used before deployment. PTSS, indexed by posttraumatic stress disorder Checklist--Military Version (PCL-M) and frequency of stressful situations were measured after return. Regression analysis showed that both NA and number of stressful situations contributed toward increasing PCL-M scores (Adjusted R = 0.25; p < 0.001). We also found that NA traits interact with intensively stressful situations enhancing the occurrence of PTSS (Adjusted R = 0.32; p < 0.001). These findings suggest that NA traits are an important predictor for PTSS among peacekeepers and also worsen the consequences of being exposed to stressful situations. PMID:19008738

  20. Disorganization/Cognitive and Negative Symptom Dimensions in the At-Risk Mental State Predict Subsequent Transition to Psychosis

    PubMed Central

    Demjaha, Arsime; Valmaggia, Lucia; Stahl, Daniel; Byrne, Majella; McGuire, Philip

    2012-01-01

    Objective: The at-risk mental state (ARMS) is associated with a very high risk of psychosis, but it is difficult to predict which individuals will later develop psychosis on the basis of their presenting symptoms. We investigated psychopathological dimensions in subjects with an ARMS and examined whether particular symptom dimensions predicted subsequent transition to psychosis. Method: The sample comprised 122 subjects (aged 16–35 years) meeting Personal Assessment and Crisis Evaluation clinic criteria for the ARMS recruited through Outreach and Support in South London, a clinical service for people with an ARMS. A principal axis factor analysis was performed on symptom scores, obtained at presentation from the Comprehensive Assessment of the At-Risk Mental State, using Varimax rotation. The relationship between dimension scores and transition to psychosis during the following 24 months was then examined employing Cox regression analysis. Results: Factor analysis gave rise to a 5-factor solution of negative, anxiety, disorganization/cognitive, self-harm, and manic symptom dimensions, accounting for 37% of the total variance. Scores on the negative and on the disorganization/cognitive dimensions were associated with transition to psychosis during the follow-up period (P = 0.044 and P = 0.005, respectively). Conclusion: The symptoms of the ARMS have a dimensional structure similar to that evident in patients with schizophrenia except for the positive symptom dimension. The association between scores on the disorganization/cognitive and negative dimensions and later transition is consistent with independent evidence that formal thought disorder, subjective cognitive impairments, and negative symptoms are linked to the subsequent onset of psychosis. PMID:20705805

  1. Prediction of pKa values using the PM6 semiempirical method

    PubMed Central

    Kromann, Jimmy C.; Larsen, Frej; Moustafa, Hadeel

    2016-01-01

    The PM6 semiempirical method and the dispersion and hydrogen bond-corrected PM6-D3H+ method are used together with the SMD and COSMO continuum solvation models to predict pKa values of pyridines, alcohols, phenols, benzoic acids, carboxylic acids, and phenols using isodesmic reactions and compared to published ab initio results. The pKa values of pyridines, alcohols, phenols, and benzoic acids considered in this study can generally be predicted with PM6 and ab initio methods to within the same overall accuracy, with average mean absolute differences (MADs) of 0.6–0.7 pH units. For carboxylic acids, the accuracy (0.7–1.0 pH units) is also comparable to ab initio results if a single outlier is removed. For primary, secondary, and tertiary amines the accuracy is, respectively, similar (0.5–0.6), slightly worse (0.5–1.0), and worse (1.0–2.5), provided that di- and tri-ethylamine are used as reference molecules for secondary and tertiary amines. When applied to a drug-like molecule where an empirical pKa predictor exhibits a large (4.9 pH unit) error, we find that the errors for PM6-based predictions are roughly the same in magnitude but opposite in sign. As a result, most of the PM6-based methods predict the correct protonation state at physiological pH, while the empirical predictor does not. The computational cost is around 2–5 min per conformer per core processor, making PM6-based pKa prediction computationally efficient enough to be used for high-throughput screening using on the order of 100 core processors. PMID:27602298

  2. Prediction of pKa values using the PM6 semiempirical method.

    PubMed

    Kromann, Jimmy C; Larsen, Frej; Moustafa, Hadeel; Jensen, Jan H

    2016-01-01

    The PM6 semiempirical method and the dispersion and hydrogen bond-corrected PM6-D3H+ method are used together with the SMD and COSMO continuum solvation models to predict pKa values of pyridines, alcohols, phenols, benzoic acids, carboxylic acids, and phenols using isodesmic reactions and compared to published ab initio results. The pKa values of pyridines, alcohols, phenols, and benzoic acids considered in this study can generally be predicted with PM6 and ab initio methods to within the same overall accuracy, with average mean absolute differences (MADs) of 0.6-0.7 pH units. For carboxylic acids, the accuracy (0.7-1.0 pH units) is also comparable to ab initio results if a single outlier is removed. For primary, secondary, and tertiary amines the accuracy is, respectively, similar (0.5-0.6), slightly worse (0.5-1.0), and worse (1.0-2.5), provided that di- and tri-ethylamine are used as reference molecules for secondary and tertiary amines. When applied to a drug-like molecule where an empirical pKa predictor exhibits a large (4.9 pH unit) error, we find that the errors for PM6-based predictions are roughly the same in magnitude but opposite in sign. As a result, most of the PM6-based methods predict the correct protonation state at physiological pH, while the empirical predictor does not. The computational cost is around 2-5 min per conformer per core processor, making PM6-based pKa prediction computationally efficient enough to be used for high-throughput screening using on the order of 100 core processors. PMID:27602298

  3. Prognostic Value of Triple-Negative Phenotype at the Time of Locally Recurrent, Conservatively Treated Breast Cancer

    SciTech Connect

    Parikh, Rahul R.; Housman, Douglas; Yang Qifeng; Toppmeyer, Deborah; Wilson, Lynn D.; Haffty, Bruce G.

    2008-11-15

    Purpose: To evaluate the prognostic value of triple-negative (TN) ER, PR, Her2/neu basal-like carcinoma of the breast, at the time of ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence (IBTR) after conservative surgery and radiation treatment (RT). Methods and Materials: A tissue microarray was constructed of 47 IBTR specimens of patients who experienced an IBTR after conservative surgery and RT that were processed and stained for ER, PR, and HER2/neu. Results: At a median post-recurrence follow-up of 7.5 years, the 5-year overall survival (OS) and disease metastasis-free survival (DMFS) after IBTR were 91.4% and 83.0%, respectively. Median time to tumor recurrence (TTR) and IBTR was shorter in the TN phenotype (3.88 vs. 5.00 years; p = 0.09). The TN tumors were not associated with size of local recurrence or recurrence elsewhere in the breast. Despite administration of standard chemotherapy at the time of IBTR, the 5-year DMFS and 5-year OS for the TN cohort were 48.6% and 72.7%, respectively. The 5-year DMFS was 48.6% for TN tumors and 90.8% for non-TN tumors (p < 0.01). By univariate analysis, significant factors associated with poor 5-year DMFS and OS after IBTR included: TN phenotype (p < 0.01), TTR 3 years or less (p < 0.01), local recurrence at or near the original tumor site (p = 0.08). In multivariate analysis, TN was a significant independent predictor of poorer 5-year DMFS (relative risk, 5.91; 95% confidence interval, 1.83-19.01; p < 0.01) after IBTR. Conclusions: Although patients experiencing an IBTR have a relatively favorable prognosis, those with IBTR events of the TN phenotype had a rather poor prognosis despite receiving standard chemotherapy. Strategies with novel systemic therapies to improve outcomes in patients experiencing IBTR of the TN phenotype are warranted.

  4. Value of ANCA measurements during remission to predict a relapse of ANCA-associated vasculitis—a meta-analysis

    PubMed Central

    Grayson, Peter C.; Mahr, Alfred D.; LaValley, Michael; Merkel, Peter A.

    2012-01-01

    Objective. The value of repeated ANCA measurements among patients with an established diagnosis of ANCA-associated vasculitis (AAV) remains controversial. The aim of this study was to explore whether either of the two distinct patterns of ANCA values during remission, a rise in ANCA or persistently positive ANCA, predicted future relapse. Methods. MEDLINE and EMBASE searches were performed. Studies with at least 10 subjects with AAV from which both sensitivity and specificity of a rise in ANCA and/or persistent ANCA for future disease relapse could be calculated were included. Likelihood ratios were calculated for each study and pooled to arrive at summary estimates. I2-values were calculated as a measure of heterogeneity and meta-regression was used to explore sources of heterogeneity. Results. Nine articles on a rise in ANCA and nine articles on persistent ANCA were included. The summary estimates for positive likelihood ratio (LR+) and negative likelihood ratio (LR−) of a rise in ANCA during remission on subsequent relapse of disease were 2.84 (95% CI 1.65, 4.90) and 0.49 (95% CI 0.27, 0.87), respectively. The summary estimates for LR+ and LR− of persistent ANCA during remission for subsequent disease relapse were 1.97 (95% CI 1.43, 2.70) and 0.73 (95% CI 0.50, 1.06), respectively. There was substantial between-study heterogeneity, which was partially explained by the frequency of ANCA measurements. Conclusion. Among patients with AAV, a rise in or persistence of ANCA during remission is only modestly predictive of future disease relapse. There is limited use to serial ANCA measurements during disease remission to guide treatment decisions for individual patients with AAV. PMID:22039267

  5. Positive Predictive Value of the WHO Clinical and Immunologic Criteria to Predict Viral Load Failure among Adults on First, or Second-Line Antiretroviral Therapy in Kenya

    PubMed Central

    Muttai, Hellen; Ng’ang’a, Lucy; Ackers, Marta; Kim, Andrea; Miruka, Fredrick; Erick, Opiyo; Okonji, Julie; Ayuaya, Tolbert; Schwarcz, Sandra

    2016-01-01

    Routine HIV viral load (VL) monitoring is the standard of care for persons receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in developed countries. Although the World Health Organization recommends annual VL monitoring of patients on ART, recognizing difficulties in conducting routine VL testing, the WHO continues to recommend targeted VL testing to confirm treatment failure for persons who meet selected immunologic and clinical criteria. Studies have measured positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value, sensitivity and specificity of these criteria among patients receiving first-line ART but not specifically among those on second-line or subsequent regimens. Between 2008 and 2011, adult ART patients in Nyanza, Kenya who met national clinical or immunologic criteria for treatment failure received targeted VL testing. We calculated PPV and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of these criteria to detect virologic treatment failure among patients receiving a) first-line ART, b) second/subsequent ART, and c) any regimen. Of 12,134 patient specimens tested, 2,874 (23.7%) were virologically confirmed as treatment failures. The PPV for 2,834 first-line ART patients who met either the clinical or immunologic criteria for treatment failure was 34.4% (95% CI 33.2–35.7), 33.1% (95% CI 24.7–42.3) for the 40 patients on second-line/subsequent regimens, and 33.4% (95% CI 33.1–35.6) for any ART. PPV, regardless of criteria, for first-line ART patients was lowest among patients over 44 years old and highest for patients aged 15 to 34 years. PPV of immunological and clinical criteria for correctly identifying treatment failure was similarly low for adult patients receiving either first-line or second-line/subsequent ART regimens. Our data confirm the inadequacy of clinical and immunologic criteria to correctly identify treatment failure and support the implementation of routine VL testing. PMID:27383834

  6. Progress in the prediction of pKa values in proteins.

    PubMed

    Alexov, Emil; Mehler, Ernest L; Baker, Nathan; Baptista, António M; Huang, Yong; Milletti, Francesca; Nielsen, Jens Erik; Farrell, Damien; Carstensen, Tommy; Olsson, Mats H M; Shen, Jana K; Warwicker, Jim; Williams, Sarah; Word, J Michael

    2011-12-01

    The pK(a) -cooperative aims to provide a forum for experimental and theoretical researchers interested in protein pK(a) values and protein electrostatics in general. The first round of the pK(a) -cooperative, which challenged computational labs to carry out blind predictions against pK(a) s experimentally determined in the laboratory of Bertrand Garcia-Moreno, was completed and results discussed at the Telluride meeting (July 6-10, 2009). This article serves as an introduction to the reports submitted by the blind prediction participants that will be published in a special issue of PROTEINS: Structure, Function and Bioinformatics. Here, we briefly outline existing approaches for pK(a) calculations, emphasizing methods that were used by the participants in calculating the blind pK(a) values in the first round of the cooperative. We then point out some of the difficulties encountered by the participating groups in making their blind predictions, and finally try to provide some insights for future developments aimed at improving the accuracy of pK(a) calculations. PMID:22002859

  7. PROGRESS IN THE PREDICTION OF pKa VALUES IN PROTEINS

    PubMed Central

    Baker, Nathan; Baptista, Antonio; Huang, Yong; Milletti, Francesca; Nielsen, Jens Erik; Farrell, Damien; Carstensen, Tommy; Olsson, Mats H. M.; Shen, Jana K.; Warwicker, Jim; Williams, Sarah; Word, J. Michael

    2011-01-01

    The pKa-cooperative aims to provide a forum for experimental and theoretical researchers interested in protein pKa values and protein electrostatics in general. The first round of the pKa-cooperative, which challenged computational labs to carry out blind predictions against pKas experimentally determined in the laboratory of Bertrand Garcia-Moreno, was completed and results discussed at the Telluride meeting (July 6–10, 2009). This paper serves as an introduction to the reports submitted by the blind prediction participants that will be published in a special issue of PROTEINS: Structure, Function and Bioinformatics. Here we briefly outline existing approaches for pKa calculations, emphasizing methods that were used by the participants in calculating the blind pKa values in the first round of the cooperative. We then point out some of the difficulties encountered by the participating groups in making their blind predictions, and finally try to provide some insights for future developments aimed at improving the accuracy of pKa calculations. PMID:22002859

  8. Progress in the prediction of pKa values in proteins

    SciTech Connect

    Alexov, Emil; Mehler, Ernest L.; Baker, Nathan A.; Baptista, Antonio; Huang, Yong; Milletti, Francesca; Nielsen, Jens E.; Farrell, Damien; Carstensen, Tommy; Olsson, Mats H.; Shen, Jana K.; Warwicker, Jim; Williams, Sarah; Word, J Michael

    2011-12-15

    The pKa-cooperative aims to provide a forum for experimental and theoretical researchers interested in protein pKa values and protein electrostatics in general. The first round of the pKa -cooperative, which challenged computational labs to carry out blind predictions against pKas experimentally determined in the laboratory of Bertrand Garcia-Moreno, was completed and results discussed at the Telluride meeting (July 6-10, 2009). This paper serves as an introduction to the reports submitted by the blind prediction participants that will be published in a special issue of PROTEINS: Structure, Function and Bioinformatics. Here we briefly outline existing approaches for pKa calculations, emphasizing methods that were used by the participants in calculating the blind pKa values in the first round of the cooperative. We then point out some of the difficulties encountered by the participating groups in making their blind predictions, and finally try to provide some insights for future developments aimed at improving the accuracy of pKa calculations.

  9. Universal framework for temperature dependence prediction of the negative bias temperature instability based on microscope pictures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Chenyue; Zhang, Lining; Lin, Xinnan; Chan, Mansun

    2016-04-01

    A universal framework for describing the temperature enhanced negative bias temperature instability (NBTI) is developed in this paper. Analytical time evolution models of the NBTI mechanisms, as Pb center generation and hole-transport in the oxygen vacancies, are proposed based on careful investigation of atom-level microscopic pictures. A logarithmic time function is derived to describe the interface state (Pb center) generation and recovery evolution by revealing a fact that the activation energy is significantly modified by the accumulation of generated defects. Corresponding coefficients, including the generation amplitudes and time constant, are identified depending on temperature linearly and exponentially. Moreover, the unrecoverable oxide hole-trapping is proposed resulted from the hole-transport among deep-level oxygen vacancies driven by electrical field within the gate oxide. A power-law time function is derived to describing this evolution, with time exponent linear to temperature. Parameters calculated by the proposed analytical models reveal good consistent with the parameters directly extracted from the measured data, indicating the validation and universality of the physical based framework in reproducing the parametric shift of the NBTI degradation under various temperature conditions and process technologies.

  10. β1 Integrin as a Prognostic and Predictive Marker in Triple-Negative Breast Cancer.

    PubMed

    Yin, Hsin-Ling; Wu, Chun-Chieh; Lin, Chih-Hung; Chai, Chee-Yin; Hou, Ming-Feng; Chang, Shu-Jyuan; Tsai, Hung-Pei; Hung, Wen-Chun; Pan, Mei-Ren; Luo, Chi-Wen

    2016-01-01

    Triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) displays higher risk of recurrence and distant metastasis. Due to absence of estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR) and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2), TNBC lacks clinically established targeted therapies. Therefore, understanding of the mechanism underlying the aggressive behaviors of TNBC is required for the design of individualized strategies and the elongation of overall survival duration. Here, we supported a positive correlation between β1 integrin and malignant behaviors such as cell migration, invasion, and drug resistance. We found that silencing of β1 integrin inhibited cell migration, invasion, and increased the sensitivity to anti-cancer drug. In contrast, activation of β1 integrin increased cell migration, invasion, and decreased the sensitivity to anti-cancer drug. Furthermore, we found that silencing of β1 integrin abolished Focal adhesion kinese (FAK) mediated cell survival. Overexpression of FAK could restore cisplatin-induced apoptosis in β1 integrin-depleted cells. Consistent to in vitro data, β1 integrin expression was also positively correlated with FAK (p = 0.031) in clinical tissue. More importantly, β1 integrin expression was significantly correlated with patient outcome. In summary, our study indicated that β1 integrin could regulate TNBC cells migration, invasion, drug sensitivity, and be a potential prognostic biomarker in TNBC patient survival. PMID:27589736

  11. Genes associated with histopathologic features of triple negative breast tumors predict molecular subtypes.

    PubMed

    Purrington, Kristen S; Visscher, Daniel W; Wang, Chen; Yannoukakos, Drakoulis; Hamann, Ute; Nevanlinna, Heli; Cox, Angela; Giles, Graham G; Eckel-Passow, Jeanette E; Lakis, Sotiris; Kotoula, Vassiliki; Fountzilas, George; Kabisch, Maria; Rüdiger, Thomas; Heikkilä, Päivi; Blomqvist, Carl; Cross, Simon S; Southey, Melissa C; Olson, Janet E; Gilbert, Judy; Deming-Halverson, Sandra; Kosma, Veli-Matti; Clarke, Christine; Scott, Rodney; Jones, J Louise; Zheng, Wei; Mannermaa, Arto; Eccles, Diana M; Vachon, Celine M; Couch, Fergus J

    2016-05-01

    Distinct subtypes of triple negative (TN) breast cancer have been identified by tumor expression profiling. However, little is known about the relationship between histopathologic features of TN tumors, which reflect aspects of both tumor behavior and tumor microenvironment, and molecular TN subtypes. The histopathologic features of TN tumors were assessed by central review and 593 TN tumors were subjected to whole genome expression profiling using the Illumina Whole Genome DASL array. TN molecular subtypes were defined based on gene expression data associated with histopathologic features of TN tumors. Gene expression analysis yielded signatures for four TN subtypes (basal-like, androgen receptor positive, immune, and stromal) consistent with previous studies. Expression analysis also identified genes significantly associated with the 12 histological features of TN tumors. Development of signatures using these markers of histopathological features resulted in six distinct TN subtype signatures, including an additional basal-like and stromal signature. The additional basal-like subtype was distinguished by elevated expression of cell motility and glucose metabolism genes and reduced expression of immune signaling genes, whereas the additional stromal subtype was distinguished by elevated expression of immunomodulatory pathway genes. Histopathologic features that reflect heterogeneity in tumor architecture, cell structure, and tumor microenvironment are related to TN subtype. Accounting for histopathologic features in the development of gene expression signatures, six major subtypes of TN breast cancer were identified. PMID:27083182

  12. Qualities of Peer Relations on Social Networking Websites: Predictions from Negative Mother-Teen Interactions

    PubMed Central

    Szwedo, David E.; Mikami, Amori Yee; Allen, Joseph P.

    2010-01-01

    This study examined associations between characteristics of teenagers’ relationships with their mothers and their later socializing behavior and peer relationship quality online. At age 13, teenagers and their mothers participated in an interaction in which mothers’ and adolescents’ behavior undermining autonomy and relatedness was observed, and indicators of teens’ depressive symptoms and social anxiety were assessed. At age 20, youth self-reported on their online behaviors, youths’ social networking webpages were observationally coded to assess peer relationship quality online, and symptoms of depression and social anxiety were reassessed. Results suggested that problematic mother-teen relationships were predictive of youths’ later preference for online communication and greater likelihood of forming a friendship with someone met online, yet poorer quality in online relationships. Findings are discussed within a developmental framework suggesting the importance of considering youths’ family interactions during early adolescence as predictors of future online socializing behavior and online interactions with peers. PMID:21860584

  13. Traditional versus modern values and interpersonal factors predicting stress response syndromes in a Swiss elderly population.

    PubMed

    Müller, Mario; Forstmeier, Simon; Wagner, Birgit; Maercker, Andreas

    2011-12-01

    Stress response syndromes like adjustment disorders or complicated grief are assumed to be shaped by social-cultural factors in addition to biological and psychological factors. In previous research, value orientations and interpersonal factors were found to jointly predict those syndromes (Maercker, A., Mohiyeddini, C., Müller, M., Xie, W., Hui Yang, Z., Wang, J., & Müller, J. ( 2009 ). Traditional versus modern values, self-perceived interpersonal factors, and posttraumatic stress in Chinese and German crime victims. Psychology and Psychotherapy, 82(Pt 2), 219-232.). In addition to the previous finding, the current study using Swiss elderly (65-97 years) aimed to replicate patterns of predictors leading to stress responses in people with recent bereavement or severe life events. Traditional (conformity, tradition and benevolence) and modern values (stimulation, hedonism and achievement) and two self-perceived interpersonal mediator processes (disclosure intentions and social acknowledgement as a victim) were assessed. The current study confirms the previous model in parts, that is, the indirect path from social acknowledgment to stress response syndrome is mediated by disclosure intentions. Traditional values and not modern values explained substantial variance for disclosure intentions and are therefore indirectly linked to worse mental health outcomes whereas the direct association appears somewhat controversial in light of previous findings. PMID:21678201

  14. The Value of Online Algorithms to Predict T-Cell Ligands Created by Genetic Variants.

    PubMed

    van der Lee, Dyantha I; Pont, Margot J; Falkenburg, J H Frederik; Griffioen, Marieke

    2016-01-01

    Allogeneic stem cell transplantation can be a curative treatment for hematological malignancies. After HLA-matched allogeneic stem cell transplantation, beneficial anti-tumor immunity as well as detrimental side-effects can develop due to donor-derived T-cells recognizing polymorphic peptides that are presented by HLA on patient cells. Polymorphic peptides on patient cells that are recognized by specific T-cells are called minor histocompatibility antigens (MiHA), while the respective peptides in donor cells are allelic variants. MiHA can be identified by reverse strategies in which large sets of peptides are screened for T-cell recognition. In these strategies, selection of peptides by prediction algorithms may be relevant to increase the efficiency of MiHA discovery. We investigated the value of online prediction algorithms for MiHA discovery and determined the in silico characteristics of 68 autosomal HLA class I-restricted MiHA that have been identified as natural ligands by forward strategies in which T-cells from in vivo immune responses after allogeneic stem cell transplantation are used to identify the antigen. Our analysis showed that HLA class I binding was accurately predicted for 87% of MiHA of which a relatively large proportion of peptides had strong binding affinity (56%). Weak binding affinity was also predicted for a considerable number of antigens (31%) and the remaining 13% of MiHA were not predicted as HLA class I binding peptides. Besides prediction for HLA class I binding, none of the other online algorithms significantly contributed to MiHA characterization. Furthermore, we demonstrated that the majority of MiHA do not differ from their allelic variants in in silico characteristics, suggesting that allelic variants can potentially be processed and presented on the cell surface. In conclusion, our analyses revealed the in silico characteristics of 68 HLA class I-restricted MiHA and explored the value of online algorithms to predict T

  15. Signals in human striatum are appropriate for policy update rather than value prediction.

    PubMed

    Li, Jian; Daw, Nathaniel D

    2011-04-01

    Influential reinforcement learning theories propose that prediction error signals in the brain's nigrostriatal system guide learning for trial-and-error decision-making. However, since different decision variables can be learned from quantitatively similar error signals, a critical question is: what is the content of decision representations trained by the error signals? We used fMRI to monitor neural activity in a two-armed bandit counterfactual decision task that provided human subjects with information about forgone and obtained monetary outcomes so as to dissociate teaching signals that update expected values for each action, versus signals that train relative preferences between actions (a policy). The reward probabilities of both choices varied independently from each other. This specific design allowed us to test whether subjects' choice behavior was guided by policy-based methods, which directly map states to advantageous actions, or value-based methods such as Q-learning, where choice policies are instead generated by learning an intermediate representation (reward expectancy). Behaviorally, we found human participants' choices were significantly influenced by obtained as well as forgone rewards from the previous trial. We also found subjects' blood oxygen level-dependent responses in striatum were modulated in opposite directions by the experienced and forgone rewards but not by reward expectancy. This neural pattern, as well as subjects' choice behavior, is consistent with a teaching signal for developing habits or relative action preferences, rather than prediction errors for updating separate action values. PMID:21471387

  16. Predictive Value of Bronchiolitis Obliterans Syndrome Stage 0p in Chronic Graft-versus-Host Disease of the Lung

    PubMed Central

    Abedin, Sameem; Yanik, Gregory A.; Braun, Thomas; Pawarode, Attaphol; Magenau, John; Goldstein, Steven C.; Levine, John E.; Kitko, Carrie L.; Couriel, Daniel R.

    2016-01-01

    Bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS) is a significant post-transplant complication with low survival. BOS stage 0p (BOS 0p) is a parameter detected on pulmonary function tests (PFTs) after lung transplantation to identify patients at risk to develop BOS. We performed a retrospective study on 442 patients who underwent allogeneic stem cell transplant from 2007 to 2011 to evaluate whether development of BOS 0p is a risk factor in this population for BOS. Patients who met criteria for BOS 0p were significantly more likely to develop BOS (hazard ratio [HR], 3.22; P < .001). BOS 0p was significantly associated with a history of lung disease pretransplant (HR, 2.48; P =.001) and chronic graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) outside the lung post-transplant (HR, 23; P < .001). Finally, BOS 0p criteria were adequately sensitive in predicting BOS (85%), with a high negative predictive value (98%). Our findings suggest a routine PFT screening strategy with the intent of detecting BOS 0p, especially among patients with prior lung disease and who developed chronic GVHD, could suitably identify an at-risk population for the development of BOS. PMID:25687798

  17. Assisted reproductive outcomes in women with different polycystic ovary syndrome phenotypes: the predictive value of anti-Müllerian hormone.

    PubMed

    Ramezanali, Fariba; Ashrafi, Mahnaz; Hemat, Mandana; Arabipoor, Arezoo; Jalali, Samaneh; Moini, Ashraf

    2016-05-01

    This cross-sectional study aimed to evaluate IVF/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) outcomes in different polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) phenotypes (A, B, C and D) compared with a control group and the predictive values of serum anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) in PCOS phenotypes for main outcomes. This study evaluated 386 PCOS women and 350 patients with male factor infertility. Women with phenotypes A and C had significantly higher concentrations of AMH than those with phenotype B (P < 0.001). Clinical pregnancy rate (CPR) in the phenotype D group (53.3%) was higher than other groups (32.5%, 26.4% and 36.8%, respectively, in phenotypes A, B and C), but not to a significant level. Multivariable regression analysis, after adjusting for women's age and body mass index, revealed that PCOS phenotypes A and B were associated with a decreased CPR compared with the control group (odds ratio [OR]: 0.46, confidence interval [CI]: 0.26-0.8, P = 0.007 and OR: 0.34, CI: 0.18-0.62, P = 0.001, respectively). It seems a combination of hyperandrogenism and chronic anovulation is associated with a negative impact on the CPR in these patients. These results demonstrated that AMH concentration is related to PCO morphology but not predictive for CPR and live birth rate. PMID:26968928

  18. Promoting breastfeeding in Bolivia: do social networks add to the predictive value of traditional socioeconomic characteristics?

    PubMed

    Fonseca-Becker, Fannie; Valente, Thomas W

    2006-03-01

    This study tested whether the prediction of health-related knowledge (correct breastfeeding practices in this case) could be improved by including information about the composition of an individual's personal network above and beyond that predicted by his/her socioeconomic or demographic characteristics. Few studies have tested the predictive value of social networks, especially for population-based studies, despite an increased use of social networks in the past few years in several fields of health research, especially in research relating to prevention of HIV/AIDS and design of HIV/AIDS programmes. Promotion of breastfeeding practices that enhance child survival is important in Bolivia because of high infant morbidity and mortality in the country. Data on a cross-sectional urban probability sample of 2,354 women and men aged 15-49 years were collected from seven urban areas in Bolivia. Model building and the log likelihood ratio criteria were used for assessing the significance of variables in a logistic model. Results showed that the network variables added significantly (p < 0.05 for knowledge of breastfeeding only with no other liquids and for knowledge of breastfeeding only with no solids p < 0.01) to the predictive power of the socioeconomic variables. These results may also hold for other health research areas, increasingly using social network analysis, such as that of HIV/AIDS. PMID:16796153

  19. The predictive power of singular value decomposition entropy for stock market dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caraiani, Petre

    2014-01-01

    We use a correlation-based approach to analyze financial data from the US stock market, both daily and monthly observations from the Dow Jones. We compute the entropy based on the singular value decomposition of the correlation matrix for the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Index. Based on a moving window, we derive time varying measures of entropy for both daily and monthly data. We find that the entropy has a predictive ability with respect to stock market dynamics as indicated by the Granger causality tests.

  20. The value of lactate dehydrogenase serum levels as a prognostic and predictive factor for advanced pancreatic cancer patients receiving sorafenib

    PubMed Central

    Faloppi, Luca; Bianconi, Maristella; Giampieri, Riccardo; Sobrero, Alberto; Labianca, Roberto; Ferrari, Daris; Barni, Sandro; Aitini, Enrico; Zaniboni, Alberto; Boni, Corrado; Caprioni, Francesco; Mosconi, Stefania; Fanello, Silvia; Berardi, Rossana; Bittoni, Alessandro; Andrikou, Kalliopi; Cinquini, Michela; Torri, Valter; Scartozzi, Mario; Cascinu, Stefano

    2015-01-01

    Although lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) serum levels, indirect markers of angiogenesis, are associated with a worse outcome in several tumours, their prognostic value is not defined in pancreatic cancer. Moreover, high levels are associated even with a lack of efficacy of tyrosine kinase inhibitors, contributing to explain negative results in clinical trials. We assessed the role of LDH in advanced pancreatic cancer receiving sorafenib. Seventy-one of 114 patients included in the randomised phase II trial MAPS (chemotherapy plus or not sorafenib) and with available serum LDH levels, were included in this analysis. Patients were categorized according to serum LDH levels (LDH ≤vs.> upper normal rate). A significant difference was found in progression free survival (PFS) and in overall survival (OS) between patients with LDH values under or above the cut-off (PFS: 5.2 vs. 2.7 months, p = 0.0287; OS: 10.7 vs. 5.9 months, p = 0.0021). After stratification according to LDH serum levels and sorafenib treatment, patients with low LDH serum levels treated with sorafenib showed an advantage in PFS (p = 0.05) and OS (p = 0.0012). LDH appears to be a reliable parameter to assess the prognosis of advanced pancreatic cancer patients, and it may be a predictive parameter to select patients candidate to receive sorafenib. PMID:26397228

  1. The value of lactate dehydrogenase serum levels as a prognostic and predictive factor for advanced pancreatic cancer patients receiving sorafenib.

    PubMed

    Faloppi, Luca; Bianconi, Maristella; Giampieri, Riccardo; Sobrero, Alberto; Labianca, Roberto; Ferrari, Daris; Barni, Sandro; Aitini, Enrico; Zaniboni, Alberto; Boni, Corrado; Caprioni, Francesco; Mosconi, Stefania; Fanello, Silvia; Berardi, Rossana; Bittoni, Alessandro; Andrikou, Kalliopi; Cinquini, Michela; Torri, Valter; Scartozzi, Mario; Cascinu, Stefano

    2015-10-27

    Although lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) serum levels, indirect markers of angiogenesis, are associated with a worse outcome in several tumours, their prognostic value is not defined in pancreatic cancer. Moreover, high levels are associated even with a lack of efficacy of tyrosine kinase inhibitors, contributing to explain negative results in clinical trials. We assessed the role of LDH in advanced pancreatic cancer receiving sorafenib. Seventy-one of 114 patients included in the randomised phase II trial MAPS (chemotherapy plus or not sorafenib) and with available serum LDH levels, were included in this analysis. Patients were categorized according to serum LDH levels (LDH ≤ vs.> upper normal rate). A significant difference was found in progression free survival (PFS) and in overall survival (OS) between patients with LDH values under or above the cut-off (PFS: 5.2 vs. 2.7 months, p = 0.0287; OS: 10.7 vs. 5.9 months, p = 0.0021). After stratification according to LDH serum levels and sorafenib treatment, patients with low LDH serum levels treated with sorafenib showed an advantage in PFS (p = 0.05) and OS (p = 0.0012). LDH appears to be a reliable parameter to assess the prognosis of advanced pancreatic cancer patients, and it may be a predictive parameter to select patients candidate to receive sorafenib. PMID:26397228

  2. New insights into the prognostic value of Ki-67 labeling index in patients with triple-negative breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Hao, Shuang; He, Zhi-Xian; Yu, Ke-Da; Yang, Wen-Tao; Shao, Zhi-Min

    2016-04-26

    The clinicopathological importance of the Ki-67 labeling index (LI) in breast cancer has been studied intensely; however, its prognostic significance in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is unclear. We aimed to determine the optimal Ki-67 cut-off point to demonstrate its prognostic relevance for breast-cancer-specific survival (BCSS) in TNBC patients. A total of 571 female TNBC patients underwent diagnosis and surgery at our institution from January 2002 to June 2011. Clinicopathological information for all patients was available and categorized by Ki-67 LI and age at diagnosis. The cut-off values for Ki-67 LI and age were selected using the medians. A varying-coefficient Cox model was used to describe the effect of Ki-67 LI on BCSS outcomes changing with age after adjustment for disease characteristics. For survival analysis, the Kaplan-Meier method and the log-rank test were used. Cox proportional hazards models were applied to determine the association of Ki-67 LI and age with BCSS outcomes after adjustment for disease characteristics. Median age was 50 years, and median Ki-67 LI was 35% (range, 0 - 97.5%). There was no prognostic significance of stratification by Ki-67 LI in all patients. When analyzing age at diagnosis as a continuous variable, the log-transformed HRKi67 > 35% vs. ≤ 35% for BCSS increased in an S-shaped curve with increasing age up to about 50 years-old and remained higher-risk for high Ki-67 LI. After adjusting for clinicopathological risk factors, low Ki-67 LI was a poor prognostic factor for BCSS (HR: 0.36, 95% CI: 0.14-0.96, P = 0.042) in patients of ≤ 50 years, but not in patients diagnosed at > 50 years (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.57, 95% CI: 0.76-3.22, P = 0.241). In conclusion, lower Ki-67 LI has poor prognosis relevance in TNBC patients diagnosed at ≤ 50 years-old. Further validation of the clinical significance of Ki-67 LI in TNBC is required. PMID:27050075

  3. Predictive Value of 8 Genetic Loci for Serum Uric Acid Concentration

    PubMed Central

    Gunjača, Grgo; Boban, Mladen; Pehlić, Marina; Zemunik, Tatijana; Budimir, Danijela; Kolčić, Ivana; Lauc, Gordan; Rudan, Igor; Polašek, Ozren

    2010-01-01

    Aim To investigate the value of genomic information in prediction of individual serum uric acid concentrations. Methods Three population samples were investigated: from isolated Adriatic island communities of Vis (n = 980) and Korčula (n = 944), and from general population of the city of Split (n = 507). Serum uric acid concentration was correlated with the genetic risk score based on 8 previously described genes: PDZK1, GCKR, SLC2A9, ABCG2, LRRC16A, SLC17A3, SLC16A9, and SLC22A12, represented by a total of 16 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP). The data were analyzed using classification and regression tree (CART) and general linear modeling. Results The most important variables for uric acid prediction with CART were genetic risk score in men and age in women. The percent of variance for any single SNP in predicting serum uric acid concentration varied from 0.0%-2.0%. The use of genetic risk score explained 0.1%-2.5% of uric acid variance in men and 3.9%-4.9% in women. The highest percent of variance was obtained when age, sex, and genetic risk score were used as predictors, with a total of 30.9% of variance in pooled analysis. Conclusion Despite overall low percent of explained variance, uric acid seems to be among the most predictive human quantitative traits based on the currently available SNP information. The use of genetic risk scores is a valuable approach in genetic epidemiology and increases the predictability of human quantitative traits based on genomic information compared with single SNP approach. PMID:20162742

  4. Heating value prediction for combustible fraction of municipal solid waste in Semarang using backpropagation neural network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khuriati, Ainie; Setiabudi, Wahyu; Nur, Muhammad; Istadi, Istadi

    2015-12-01

    Backpropgation neural network was trained to predict of combustible fraction heating value of MSW from the physical composition. Waste-to-Energy (WtE) is a viable option for municipal solid waste (MSW) management. The influence of the heating value of municipal solid waste (MSW) is very important on the implementation of WtE systems. As MSW is heterogeneous material, direct heating value measurements are often not feasible. In this study an empirical model was developed to describe the heating value of the combustible fraction of municipal solid waste as a function of its physical composition of MSW using backpropagation neural network. Sampling process was carried out at Jatibarang landfill. The weight of each sorting sample taken from each discharged MSW vehicle load is 100 kg. The MSW physical components were grouped into paper wastes, absorbent hygiene product waste, styrofoam waste, HD plastic waste, plastic waste, rubber waste, textile waste, wood waste, yard wastes, kitchen waste, coco waste, and miscellaneous combustible waste. Network was trained by 24 datasets with 1200, 769, and 210 epochs. The results of this analysis showed that the correlation from the physical composition is better than multiple regression method .

  5. Assessing value of innovative molecular diagnostic tests in the concept of predictive, preventive, and personalized medicine.

    PubMed

    Akhmetov, Ildar; Bubnov, Rostyslav V

    2015-01-01

    Molecular diagnostic tests drive the scientific and technological uplift in the field of predictive, preventive, and personalized medicine offering invaluable clinical and socioeconomic benefits to the key stakeholders. Although the results of diagnostic tests are immensely influential, molecular diagnostic tests (MDx) are still grudgingly reimbursed by payers and amount for less than 5 % of the overall healthcare costs. This paper aims at defining the value of molecular diagnostic test and outlining the most important components of "value" from miscellaneous assessment frameworks, which go beyond accuracy and feasibility and impact the clinical adoption, informing healthcare resource allocation decisions. The authors suggest that the industry should facilitate discussions with various stakeholders throughout the entire assessment process in order to arrive at a consensus about the depth of evidence required for positive marketing authorization or reimbursement decisions. In light of the evolving "value-based healthcare" delivery practices, it is also recommended to account for social and ethical parameters of value, since these are anticipated to become as critical for reimbursement decisions and test acceptance as economic and clinical criteria. PMID:26425215

  6. Predicting Prostate Biopsy Outcomes: A Preliminary Investigation on Screening with Ultrahigh B-Value Diffusion-Weighted Imaging as an Innovative Diagnostic Biomarker

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Kun; Shen, Yanguang; Zhang, Xu; Ma, Lu; Wang, Haiyi; An, Ningyu; Guo, Aitao; Ye, Huiyi

    2016-01-01

    Background Routine screening of prostate specific antigen (PSA) is no longer recommended because of a high rate of over-diagnosis of prostate cancer (PCa). Objective To evaluate the efficacy of diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (DW-MRI) for PCa detection, and to explore the clinical utility of ultrahigh b-value DW-MRI in predicting prostate biopsy outcomes. Methodology 73 male patients were selected for the study. They underwent 3T MRI using T2WI conventional DW-MRI with b-value 1000 s/mm2, and ultrahigh b-value DW-MRI with b-values of 2000 s/mm2 and 3000 s/mm2. Two radiologists evaluated individual prostate gland images on a 5-point rating scale using PI-RADS, for the purpose of region-specific comparisons among modalities. Sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV) and likelihood ratios (LR) were investigated for each MRI modality. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was also calculated. Results Results showed the improved diagnostic value of ultrahigh b-value DWI-MRI for detection of PCa when compared to other b values and conventional MRI protocols. Sensitivity values for 3000 s/mm2 in both peripheral zone (PZ) and transition zone (TZ) were significantly higher than those observed with conventional DW-MRI—Specificity values for 3000 s/mm2 in the TZ were significantly higher than other b-value images, whereas specificity values using 3000 s/mm2 in the PZ were not significantly higher than 2000 s/mm2 images. PPV and NPV between 3000 s/mm2 and the other three modalities were significantly higher for both PZ and TZ images. The PLRs and NLRs of b-value 3000 s/mm2 DW-MRI in the PZ and TZ were also recorded. ROC analysis showed greater AUCs for the b value 3000 s/mm2 DWI than for the other three modalities. Conclusions DW-MRI with a b-value of 3000 s/mm2 was found to be the most accurate and reliable MRI modality for PCa tumor detection and localization

  7. Predictive value of attitude, cognitive ability, and personality to science achievement in the middle school

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baker, Dale R.

    This article examines the factors of attitude toward science, spatial ability, mathematical ability, and the scientific personality, as measured by the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator, in a sample of middle school students. Males and females with science grades of A and B were found to have several characteristics of the scientific personality, good grades in mathematics, but negative attitudes toward science. Males and females with science grades of C and D had a more positive attitude toward science, but poor mathematical and spatial abilities and few characteristics of the scientific personality. There were no sex differences except on the Thinking/Feeling (TF) scale of the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator. As expected females portrayed themselves as preferring the (F) scale, the use of personal values when making decisions and males portrayed themselves as preferring the (T) scale, the use of logical analysis when making decisions.

  8. Does the singular value decomposition entropy have predictive power for stock market? - Evidence from the Shenzhen stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gu, Rongbao; Xiong, Wei; Li, Xinjie

    2015-12-01

    This paper analyzes the predictive ability of the singular value decomposition entropy for the Shenzhen Component Index based on different scales. It is found that, the predictive ability of the entropy for the index is affected by the width of moving time windows and the structural break in stock market. By moving time windows with one year, the predictive power of singular value decomposition entropy of Shenzhen stock market for its component index is found after the reform of non-tradable shares.

  9. The predictive value of Alvarado score, inflammatory parameters and ultrasound imaging in the diagnosis of acute appendicitis

    PubMed Central

    Tanrıkulu, Ceren Şen; Karamercan, Mehmet Akif; Tanrıkulu, Yusuf; Öztürk, Miraç; Yüzbaşıoğlu, Yücel; Coşkun, Figen

    2016-01-01

    Objective: Acute appendicitis (AA) is one of the most common surgical emergencies. Despite extraordinary advances in modern investigations, the accurate diagnosis of AA remains an enigmatic challenge. The aim of this study was to compare and evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of inflammatory parameters [C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR)], ultrasound (US) and Alvarado score (AS) in reducing the rate of negative appendectomies. Material and Methods: Two hundred seventy-eight patients were included in this study. Patients were separated into two main groups as the surgery group (n=184) and non-operative group (n=94). Complete blood count, ESR and PCT levels were assessed, abdominal US was performed and AS was calculated for all patients. Results: In the surgery group, clinical predictive factors for histopathologic results such as AS ≥7, AA signs on US, neutrophilia and leukocytosis were significant. Neutrophilia and leukocytosis had the highest accuracy rate among these factors. Inflammatory parameters were not predictive for histopathologic results, although higher CRP and PCT levels were significant in perforated and necrotizing appendicitis. Multifactorial regression analyses showed that AS was not of significant predictive value in the non-operative group. Conclusion: There was no superiority of AS and/or US in the diagnosis of AA. Recent findings have shown the most reliable parameters in the diagnosis of AA to be primarily ‘neutrophilia’ and secondarily ‘leukocytosis’. Other results of this study indicated that inflammatory parameters (CRP, PCT, ESR) were not superior to other parameters but CRP and PCT levels were significantly high in complicated cases.

  10. The predictive value of 2-year posttreatment biopsy after prostate cancer radiotherapy for eventual biochemical outcome

    SciTech Connect

    Vance, Waseet; Tucker, Susan L.; Crevoisier, Renaud de; Kuban, Deborah A.; Cheung, M. Rex . E-mail: mrcheung@mdanderson.org

    2007-03-01

    Purpose: To determine the value of a 2-year post-radiotherapy (RT) prostate biopsy for predicting eventual biochemical failure in patients who were treated for localized prostate cancer. Methods and Materials: This study comprised 164 patients who underwent a planned 2-year post-RT prostate biopsy. The independent prognostic value of the biopsy results for forecasting eventual biochemical outcome and overall survival was tested with other factors (the Gleason score, 1992 American Joint Committee on Cancer tumor stage, pretreatment prostate-specific antigen level, risk group, and RT dose) in a multivariate analysis. The current nadir + 2 (CN + 2) definition of biochemical failure was used. Patients with rising prostate-specific antigen (PSA) or suspicious digital rectal examination before the biopsy were excluded. Results: The biopsy results were normal in 78 patients, scant atypical and malignant cells in 30, carcinoma with treatment effect in 43, and carcinoma without treatment effect in 13. Using the CN + 2 definition, we found a significant association between biopsy results and eventual biochemical failure. We also found that the biopsy status provides predictive information independent of the PSA status at the time of biopsy. Conclusion: A 2-year post-RT prostate biopsy may be useful for forecasting CN + 2 biochemical failure. Posttreatment prostate biopsy may be useful for identifying patients for aggressive salvage therapy.

  11. A CBR-Based and MAHP-Based Customer Value Prediction Model for New Product Development

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Yu-Jie; Luo, Xin-xing; Deng, Li

    2014-01-01

    In the fierce market environment, the enterprise which wants to meet customer needs and boost its market profit and share must focus on the new product development. To overcome the limitations of previous research, Chan et al. proposed a dynamic decision support system to predict the customer lifetime value (CLV) for new product development. However, to better meet the customer needs, there are still some deficiencies in their model, so this study proposes a CBR-based and MAHP-based customer value prediction model for a new product (C&M-CVPM). CBR (case based reasoning) can reduce experts' workload and evaluation time, while MAHP (multiplicative analytic hierarchy process) can use actual but average influencing factor's effectiveness in stimulation, and at same time C&M-CVPM uses dynamic customers' transition probability which is more close to reality. This study not only introduces the realization of CBR and MAHP, but also elaborates C&M-CVPM's three main modules. The application of the proposed model is illustrated and confirmed to be sensible and convincing through a stimulation experiment. PMID:25162050

  12. A CBR-based and MAHP-based customer value prediction model for new product development.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Yu-Jie; Luo, Xin-xing; Deng, Li

    2014-01-01

    In the fierce market environment, the enterprise which wants to meet customer needs and boost its market profit and share must focus on the new product development. To overcome the limitations of previous research, Chan et al. proposed a dynamic decision support system to predict the customer lifetime value (CLV) for new product development. However, to better meet the customer needs, there are still some deficiencies in their model, so this study proposes a CBR-based and MAHP-based customer value prediction model for a new product (C&M-CVPM). CBR (case based reasoning) can reduce experts' workload and evaluation time, while MAHP (multiplicative analytic hierarchy process) can use actual but average influencing factor's effectiveness in stimulation, and at same time C&M-CVPM uses dynamic customers' transition probability which is more close to reality. This study not only introduces the realization of CBR and MAHP, but also elaborates C&M-CVPM's three main modules. The application of the proposed model is illustrated and confirmed to be sensible and convincing through a stimulation experiment. PMID:25162050

  13. Positive predictive value of clinically suspected ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction using angiographic verification.

    PubMed

    Becker, Søren; Chisholm, Gro; Maeng, Michael

    2013-10-01

    Fibrinolysis has not been used for the treatment of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) in Denmark since 2005. We aimed to assess the positive predictive value of clinically suspected STEMI among consecutive patients in a real-world setting where all patients with suspected STEMI undergo acute coronary angiography. We evaluated the clinical diagnosis of consecutive patients with suspected STEMI admitted to Aarhus University Hospital between September 1, 2010, and August 31, 2011. Conclusive STEMI was defined as a patient with an identifiable culprit lesion by angiography. Of 615 patients with suspected STEMI, 483 (79%) had conclusive STEMI, and 132 (21%) did not have an identifiable culprit lesion. A higher proportion of patients with conclusive STEMI were men, whereas patients without conclusive STEMI were more likely to have diabetes mellitus (16% vs 10%; p = 0.04), left bundle branch block (24% vs 2%; p <0.001), hypertension (48% vs 36%; p = 0.01), or a history of coronary artery bypass surgery (8% vs 2%; p = 0.001). Compared with the overall 79% with conclusive STEMI, patients with left bundle branch block or a history of coronary artery bypass surgery had positive predictive values of only 26% and 41%, respectively. Our findings thus indicate that a substantial number of patients would have received fibrinolysis, without any potential benefit but with the inherent risk of bleeding complications, if acute angiography had not been an option. PMID:23768460

  14. Personality, emotions and coping styles: predictive value for the evolution of cancer patients.

    PubMed

    Cardenal, Violeta; Cerezo, M Victoria; Martínez, Joaquina; Ortiz-Tallo, Margarita; José Blanca, M

    2012-07-01

    This study had a twofold goal: to define differences in psychological aspects between cancer patients and a control group and to explore the predictive value of such aspects for the evolution of the disease two years later. Firstly, personality, anxiety, anger and depression were assessed in both groups. Results of t-analyses revealed significant group differences. In personality, cancer patients had higher levels of neuroticism and lower levels of extraversion, agreeableness and conscientiousness than the control group. In emotional variables, cancer patients had higher levels of anxiety and some aspects of anger, but there were no group differences in depression levels. Secondly, applying a quasi-prospective design, the predictive value of personality, emotions and coping styles for the evolution of cancer (favourable or unfavourable) was explored using generalized linear models and logistic regression. A four-predictor logistic model was fitted: Anger Expression-In, Resignation, Self-blame and Conscientiousness, indicating that the higher Anger Expression-in, Resignation, and Self-blame scores together with a lower Conscientiousness score, the more likely it is for patients' cancer to evolve unfavourably. These results indicate the crucial role of psychological aspects for the evolution of the disease and the need to include such aspects in the design of clinical interventions. PMID:22774449

  15. Predictive value of rectal bleeding in screening for rectal and sigmoid polyps.

    PubMed Central

    Chapuis, P H; Goulston, K J; Dent, O F; Tait, A D

    1985-01-01

    Overt rectal bleeding is a common symptom of colorectal cancer and polyps but also occurs in apparently healthy people. It is not known how often this represents bleeding from an undiagnosed rectal or sigmoid polyp or cancer. Three hundred and nineteen apparently healthy men aged over 50, selected by random sampling, were interviewed and underwent flexible sigmoidoscopy to at least 30 cm. Polyps of 10 mm or more in diameter were diagnosed in 12, one of whom also had an adenocarcinoma. Rectal bleeding during the previous six months was reported by 48, four of whom were found to have polyps; seven polyps and one cancer were diagnosed among the 271 who reported no rectal bleeding. Rectal bleeding had a specificity of 86%, a sensitivity of 33%, and a positive predictive value of 8% for rectal or sigmoid polyps or cancer. Restricting the analysis to those subjects who regularly inspected their stools did not improve the predictive value. Sigmoidoscopy in apparently healthy subjects with rectal bleeding will not result in the diagnosis of appreciable numbers of rectal and sigmoid polyps or cancers. PMID:3924158

  16. Factors predicting the persistence of genital human papillomavirus infections and PAP smear abnormality in HIV-positive and HIV-negative women during prospective follow-up.

    PubMed

    Branca, M; Garbuglia, A R; Benedetto, A; Cappiello, T; Leoncini, L; Migliore, G; Agarossi, A; Syrjänen, K

    2003-06-01

    .001), and PCR status at entry, p53 polymorphism at aa-72, oncogenic HPV type and significant PAP smear at entry remained independent predictors, with the significance level of P < 0.05. None of the significant predictors of oncogenic HPV type in univariate analysis retained their independent value in multivariate analysis. Oncogenic HPV type at entry proved to be an independent predictor of significant PAP smear (P < 0.05). The present results indicate that HIV-infected women, even on highly active antiretroviral therapy, demonstrate a more aggressive clinical course of cervical HPV infections, and fail to eradicate the disease more frequently than HIV-negative women. This persistence of HPV-positivity, oncogenic HPV type and significant PAP smear abnormality can be predicted by the results of PAP test and HPV typing in univariate analyses, and partly retain their independent predictive value also in multivariate analysis. Clearly, in addition to regular monitoring by PAP smear, HPV testing for the oncogenic HPV types seems to provide additional prognostic information in the management of cervical lesions in HIV-infected women. PMID:12816671

  17. Potential Clinical Value of Multiparametric PET in the Prediction of Alzheimer’s Disease Progression

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Xueqi; Zhou, Yun; Wang, Rongfu; Cao, Haoyin; Reid, Savina; Gao, Rui; Han, Dong

    2016-01-01

    Objective To evaluate the potential clinical value of quantitative functional FDG PET and pathological amyloid-β PET with cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers and clinical assessments in the prediction of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) progression. Methods We studied 82 subjects for up to 96 months (median = 84 months) in a longitudinal Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) project. All preprocessed PET images were spatially normalized to standard Montreal Neurologic Institute space. Regions of interest (ROI) were defined on MRI template, and standard uptake values ratios (SUVRs) to the cerebellum for FDG and amyloid-β PET were calculated. Predictive values of single and multiparametric PET biomarkers with and without clinical assessments and CSF biomarkers for AD progression were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and logistic regression model. Results The posterior precuneus and cingulate SUVRs were identified for both FDG and amyloid-β PET in predicating progression in normal controls (NCs) and subjects with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). FDG parietal and lateral temporal SUVRs were suggested for monitoring NCs and MCI group progression, respectively. 18F-AV45 global cortex attained (78.6%, 74.5%, 75.4%) (sensitivity, specificity, accuracy) in predicting NC progression, which is comparable to the 11C-PiB global cortex SUVR’s in predicting MCI to AD. A logistic regression model to combine FDG parietal and posterior precuneus SUVR and Alzheimer’s Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive (ADAS-Cog) Total Mod was identified in predicating NC progression with (80.0%, 94.9%, 93.9%) (sensitivity, specificity, accuracy). The selected model including FDG posterior cingulate SUVR, ADAS-Cog Total Mod, and Mini-Mental State Exam (MMSE) scores for predicating MCI to AD attained (96.4%, 81.2%, 83.6%) (sensitivity, specificity, accuracy). 11C-PiB medial temporal SUVR with MMSE significantly increased 11C-PiB PET AUC to 0.915 (p<0

  18. Haematological characteristics predicting susceptibility for ascites. 2. High haematocrit values in juvenile chickens.

    PubMed

    Scheele, C W; van Der Klis, J D; Kwakernaak, C; Buys, N; Decuypere, E

    2003-07-01

    values) at week 5. This is consistent with a higher ascites mortality in flock A than in flock B, over the whole period up to 6 weeks. Until 4 weeks both A and B were similar with respect to mean Ht values of High Ht and Low Ht groups. After 4 weeks Ht values were very high in the High Ht birds of stock A, possibly as a result of the susceptibility for ascites of stock A. There was a significant interaction between stock and Ht values on the ascites-related variable arterial pressure index. Only in stock A was high arterial pressure at 5 weeks related to high Ht values at d 12. 6. Overall it was concluded that a high Ht in blood of juvenile chickens has limited practical value in predicting incidence of ascites at 5 weeks of age. PMID:12964633

  19. 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) PET/CT after two cycles of neoadjuvant therapy may predict response in HER2-negative, but not in HER2-positive breast cancer

    PubMed Central

    Mo, Miao; Bao, Xiao; Zhang, Yingjian; Liu, Guangyu; Zhang, Jun; Geng, Daoying

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this prospective study was to assess the ability of 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (18FDG) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) scanning to predict pathological complete response (pCR) in breast cancer, and to investigate whether timing of the scan and trastuzumab treatment influence the accuracy of pCR prediction in human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) positive breast cancer patients. We treated 81 locally advanced breast cancer patients with four cycles of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC). HER2-negative breast cancer patients received NAC alone, while HER2-positive breast cancer patients received NAC plus trastuzumab. 18FDG PET/CT scans were scheduled at baseline and after the second cycle of NAC. Axillary lymph node (ALN) dissection was performed after the last cycle of neoadjuvant therapy. Relative changes in standardized uptake values (SUV) between the two PET/CT scans (ΔSUV) in primary tumors and ALN metastases were calculated. There were 75 patients with 150 PET/CT scans in the final analysis, including 41 HER2-negative and 34 HER2-positive cases. In the HER2-negative group, the ΔSUV predicted overall and ALN pCR; the receiver operating characteristics-areas under curve (ROC-AUC) were 0.87 and 0.80 (P = 0.0014 and 0.031, respectively) and the negative predictive values were 94% and 89% respectively. However, in the HER2-positive group, ΔSUV could predict neither overall nor ALN pCR; the ROC-AUCs were only 0.56 and 0.53, with P = 0.53 and 0.84, respectively. Hence, the ΔSUV after two cycles of neoadjuvant therapy could predict pCR in HER2-negative patients treated with NAC alone, but not in HER2-positive patients treated with NAC plus trastuzumab. PMID:26336821

  20. Predictive value of early maximal exercise test and thallium scintigraphy after successful percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty.

    PubMed Central

    Wijns, W; Serruys, P W; Simoons, M L; van den Brand, M; de Feijter, P J; Reiber, J H; Hugenholtz, P G

    1985-01-01

    Restenosis of the dilated vessel after percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty can be detected by non-invasive procedures but their ability to predict later restenosis soon after a successful angioplasty as well as recurrence of angina has not been assessed. A maximal exercise test and myocardial thallium perfusion scintigraphy were, therefore, performed in 91 asymptomatic patients a median of 5 weeks after they had undergone a technically successful angioplasty. Primary success of the procedure was confirmed by the decrease in percentage diameter stenosis from 64(12)% to 30(13)% as measured from the coronary angiograms and in the trans-stenotic pressure gradient (normalised for mean aortic pressure) from 0.61(0.16) to 0.17(0.09). A clinical follow up examination (8.6(4.9) months later) was carried out in all patients and a late coronary angiogram obtained in 77. The thallium perfusion scintigram showing the presence or absence of a reversible defect was highly predictive for restenosis whereas the exercise test was not. The positive predictive value of an abnormal scintigram was 82% compared with 60% for the exercise test (ST segment depression/or angina or both at peak workload). Angina or a new myocardial infarction occurred in 60% of patients with abnormal and in 21% of patients with normal scintigrams. PMID:3155619

  1. Metacognitive deficits predict future levels of negative symptoms in schizophrenia controlling for neurocognition, affect recognition, and self-expectation of goal attainment.

    PubMed

    Lysaker, Paul H; Kukla, Marina; Dubreucq, Julien; Gumley, Andrew; McLeod, Hamish; Vohs, Jenifer L; Buck, Kelly D; Minor, Kyle S; Luther, Lauren; Leonhardt, Bethany L; Belanger, Elizabeth A; Popolo, Raffaele; Dimaggio, Giancarlo

    2015-10-01

    The recalcitrance of negative symptoms in the face of pharmacologic treatment has spurred interest in understanding the psychological factors that contribute to their formation and persistence. Accordingly, this study investigated whether deficits in metacognition, or the ability to form integrated ideas about oneself, others, and the world, prospectively predicted levels of negative symptoms independent of deficits in neurocognition, affect recognition and defeatist beliefs. Participants were 53 adults with a schizophrenia spectrum disorder. Prior to entry into a rehabilitation program, all participants completed concurrent assessments of metacognition with the Metacognitive Assessment Scale-Abbreviated, negative symptoms with the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale, neurocognition with the MATRICS battery, affect recognition with the Bell Lysaker Emotion Recognition Task, and one form of defeatist beliefs with the Recovery Assessment Scale. Negative symptoms were then reassessed one week, 9weeks, and 17weeks after entry into the program. A mixed effects regression model revealed that after controlling for baseline negative symptoms, a general index of neurocognition, defeatist beliefs and capacity for affect recognition, lower levels of metacognition predicted higher levels of negative symptoms across all subsequent time points. Poorer metacognition was able to predict later levels of elevated negative symptoms even after controlling for initial levels of negative symptoms. Results may suggest that metacognitive deficits are a risk factor for elevated levels of negative symptoms in the future. Clinical implications are also discussed. PMID:26164820

  2. Classification of breast tissue density by optical transillumination spectroscopy: optical and physiological effects governing predictive value

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blyschak, Kristina; Simick, Michelle K.; Jong, Roberta A.; Lilge, Lothar D.

    2003-12-01

    Preventive oncology is in need of a risk assessment technique that can identify individuals at high risk for breast cancer and that has the ability to monitor the efficacy of a risk reducing intervention. Optical transillumination spectroscopy (OTS) was shown to give information about breast tissue composition and tissue density. OTS is non-invasive, and in contrast to mammography, uses non-ionizing radiation. It is safe and can be used frequently on younger women, potentially permitting early risk detection and thus increasing the time available for risk reduction interventions to assert their influence. Before OTS can be used as a risk assessment and/or monitoring technique, its predictive ability needs to be demonstrated and maximized through the construction of mathematical models relating OTS and risk. To establish a correlation between OTS and mammographic density, Principle Components Analysis (PCA), using risk classification, is employed. PCA scores are presented in 3D cluster plots and a plane of differentiation that separates high and low tissue density is used to calculate the predictive value. Stratificaiton of PCA for measurement position on the breast in cranial-caudal projection is introduced. Analysis of PCA scores as a function of the volunteer's age and body mass index (BMI) is examined. A small but significant correlation between the component scores and age or BMI is noted but the correlation is dependnet on the tissue density category examined. Correction of the component scores for age and BMI is not recommended, since a priori knowledge of a women's tissue density is required. Stratification for the center and distal measurement positions provides a predictive value for OTS above 96%.

  3. Predictive value of early brain atrophy on response in patients treated with interferon β

    PubMed Central

    Pérez-Miralles, Francisco Carlos; Vidal-Jordana, Angela; Río, Jordi; Auger, Cristina; Pareto, Deborah; Tintoré, Mar; Rovira, Alex; Montalban, Xavier

    2015-01-01

    Objective: To investigate the association between brain volume loss during the first year of interferon treatment and clinical outcome at 4 years. Methods: Patients with multiple sclerosis initiating interferon β were clinically evaluated every 6 months for the presence of relapses and assessment of global disability using the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS). MRI scans were performed at baseline and after 12 months, and the percentage of brain volume change (PBVC), brain parenchymal volume change (BPVc%), gray matter volume change (GMVc%), and white matter volume change (WMVc%) were estimated. Patients were divided based on the cutoff values for predicting confirmed EDSS worsening obtained by receiver operating characteristic analysis for all atrophy measurements. Survival curves and Cox proportional hazards regression to predict disability worsening at last observation were applied, adjusting for demographic, clinical, and radiologic variables. Results: Larger PBVC and WMVc% decreases were observed in patients with disability worsening at 4 years of follow-up, whereas no differences were found in BPVc% or GMVc%. Cutoff points were obtained for PBVC (−0.86%; sensitivity 65.5%, specificity 71.4%) and WMVc% (−2.49%; sensitivity 85.3%, specificity 43.8%). Patients with decreases of PBVC and WMVc% below cutoff values were more prone to develop disability worsening (unadjusted hazard ratio [HR] 3.875, p = 0.005; HR 4.246, p = 0.004, respectively). PBVC (HR 4.751, p = 0.008) and the interaction of new T2 lesions with WMVc% (HR 1.086, p = 0.005) were found to be independent predictors of disability worsening in the multivariate analysis. Conclusions: At the patient level, whole-brain and white matter volume changes in the first year of interferon β therapy are predictive of subsequent clinical evolution under treatment. PMID:26185778

  4. Predictive significance of DNA damage and repair biomarkers in triple-negative breast cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy: An exploratory analysis

    PubMed Central

    Ercolani, Cristiana; Pizzuti, Laura; Lauro, Luigi Di; Sergi, Domenico; Sperati, Francesca; Terrenato, Irene; Dattilo, Rosanna; Botti, Claudio; Fabi, Alessandra; Ramieri, Maria Teresa; Mentuccia, Lucia; Marinelli, Camilla; Iezzi, Laura; Gamucci, Teresa; Natoli, Clara; Vitale, Ilio; Barba, Maddalena; Mottolese, Marcella; De Maria, Ruggero; Maugeri-Saccà, Marcello

    2015-01-01

    Response of cancer cells to chemotherapy-induced DNA damage is regulated by the ATM-Chk2 and ATR-Chk1 pathways. We investigated the association between phosphorylated H2AX (γ-H2AX), a marker of DNA double-strand breaks that trigger the ATM-Chk2 cascade, and phosphorylated Chk1 (pChk1), with pathological complete response (pCR) in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy. γ-H2AX and pChk1 were retrospectively assessed by immunohistochemistry in a series of pretreatment biopsies related to 66 patients. In fifty-three tumors hormone receptor status was negative in both the diagnostic biopsies and residual cancers, whereas in 13 cases there was a slight hormone receptor expression that changed after chemotherapy. Internal validation was carried out. In the entire cohort elevated levels of γ-H2AX, but not pChk1, were associated with reduced pCR rate (p = 0.009). The association tested significant in both uni- and multivariate logistic regression models (OR 4.51, 95% CI: 1.39–14.66, p = 0.012, and OR 5.07, 95% CI: 1.28–20.09, p = 0.021, respectively). Internal validation supported the predictive value of the model. The predictive ability of γ-H2AX was further confirmed in the multivariate model after exclusion of tumors that underwent changes in hormone receptor status during chemotherapy (OR 7.07, 95% CI: 1.39–36.02, p = 0.018). Finally, in residual diseases a significant decrease of γ-H2AX levels was observed (p < 0.001). Overall, γ-H2AX showed ability to predict pCR in TNBC and deserves larger, prospective studies. PMID:26544894

  5. Which Imaging Modality Is Superior for Prediction of Response to Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in Patients with Triple Negative Breast Cancer?

    PubMed Central

    Atkins, Jordan J.; Appleton, Catherine M.; Fisher, Carla S.; Gao, Feng; Margenthaler, Julie A.

    2013-01-01

    Background and Objectives. Triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) has been shown to be generally chemosensitive. We sought to investigate the utility of mammography (MMG), ultrasonography (US), and breast magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in predicting residual disease following neoadjuvant chemotherapy for TNBC. Methods. We identified 148 patients with 151 Stage I–III TNBC treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Residual tumor size was estimated by MMG, US, and/or MRI prior to surgical intervention and compared to the subsequent pathologic residual tumor size. Data were compared using chi-squared test. Results. Of 151 tumors, 44 (29%) did not have imaging performed prior to surgical treatment. Thirty-eight (25%) tumors underwent a pathologic complete response (pCR), while 113 (75%) had residual invasive disease. The imaging modality was accurate to within 1 cm of the final pathologic residual disease in 74 (69%) cases and within 2 cm in 94 (88%) cases. Groups were similar with regards to patient age, race, tumor size and grade, and clinical stage (P > 0.05). Accuracy to within 1 cm was the highest for US (83%) and the lowest for MMG (56%) (P < 0.05). Conclusions. Breast US and MRI were more accurate than MMG in predicting residual tumor size following neoadjuvant chemotherapy in patients with TNBC. None of the imaging modalities were predictive of a pCR. PMID:23476649

  6. Probabilistic prediction of severe weather using new products based on generalized extreme value theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prates, F.; Buizza, Roberto

    2009-09-01

    One of ECMWF's main goals is to improve its capability to provide early warnings of severe weather to its users, in particular to its Members Sates and Co-operating States. Forecasters have access to both probabilistic forecasts generated by the Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) and single forecasts generated by the high resolution model. In this work, the concept of the return period of a rare event is used to generate a new type of probabilistic product from the EPS. This new approach can lead to a better understanding of the intensity and rarity of the predicted severe weather, especially when the EPS forecast distribution falls outside the range of the model climate distribution. Attention is focused on temperature. First, annual maxima of the daily maximum temperature are extracted from EPS re-forecasts of past years and used as an input to the generalized extreme value family of distributions. This allows return levels to be estimated for return periods longer than the length of the model climate. Probabilities can be then generated from the EPS forecast for these exceptional values. Objective verification measures are applied to assess the quality of these forecasts. In the first part of the talk, the theoretical framework used in the present study will be described. Then a few severe cases of heat waves that affected Europe in the recent years will be presented to illustrate the potential usefulness of return period probabilities to the forecasters. Finally, average diagnostics will be presented, and the potential value for weather-risk management of this new type of forecasts will be discussed.

  7. Predictive Value of IL-8 for Sepsis and Severe Infections after Burn Injury - A Clinical Study

    PubMed Central

    Kraft, Robert; Herndon, David N; Finnerty, Celeste C; Cox, Robert A; Song, Juquan; Jeschke, Marc G

    2014-01-01

    The inflammatory response induced by burn injury contributes to increased incidence of infections, sepsis, organ failure, and mortality. Thus, monitoring post-burn inflammation is of paramount importance but so far there are no reliable biomarkers available to monitor and/or predict infectious complications after burn. As IL-8 is a major mediator for inflammatory responses, the aim of our study was to determine whether IL-8 expression can be used to predict post-burn sepsis, infections, and mortality other outcomes post-burn. Plasma cytokines, acute phase proteins, constitutive proteins, and hormones were analyzed during the first 60 days post injury from 468 pediatric burn patients. Demographics and clinical outcome variables (length of stay, infection, sepsis, multiorgan failure (MOF), and mortality were recorded. A cut-off level for IL-8 was determined using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Statistical significance is set at (p<0.05). ROC analysis identified a cut-off level of 234 pg/ml for IL-8 for survival. Patients were grouped according to their average IL-8 levels relative to this cut off and stratified into high (H) (n=133) and low (L) (n=335) groups. In the L group, regression analysis revealed a significant predictive value of IL-8 to percent of total body surface area (TBSA) burned and incidence of MOF (p<0.001). In the H group IL-8 levels were able to predict sepsis (p<0.002). In the H group, elevated IL-8 was associated with increased inflammatory and acute phase responses compared to the L group (p<0.05). High levels of IL-8 correlated with increased MOF, sepsis, and mortality. These data suggest that serum levels of IL-8 may be a valid biomarker for monitoring sepsis, infections, and mortality in burn patients. PMID:25514427

  8. Poor predictive value of contemporary bleeding risk scores during long-term treatment of venous thromboembolism. A multicentre retrospective cohort study.

    PubMed

    Riva, N; Bellesini, M; Di Minno, M N D; Mumoli, N; Pomero, F; Franchini, M; Fantoni, C; Lupoli, R; Brondi, B; Borretta, V; Bonfanti, C; Ageno, W; Dentali, F

    2014-09-01

    Bleeding is a common and feared complication of oral anticoagulant therapy. Several prediction models have been recently developed, but there is a lack of evidence in patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE). The aim of this study was to validate currently available bleeding risk scores during long-term oral anticoagulation for VTE. We retrospectively included adult patients on vitamin K antagonists for VTE secondary prevention, followed by five Italian Anticoagulation Clinics (Cuneo, Livorno, Mantova, Napoli, Varese), between January 2010 and August 2012. All bleeding events were classified as major bleeding (MB) or clinically-relevant-non-major-bleeding (CRNMB). A total of 681 patients were included (median age 63 years; 52.0% female). During a mean follow-up of 8.82 (± 3.59) months, 50 bleeding events occurred (13 MB and 37 CRNMB), for an overall bleeding incidence of 9.99/100 patient-years. The rate of bleeding was higher in the first three months of treatment (15.86/100 patient-years) than afterwards (7.13/100 patient-years). The HAS-BLED showed the best predictive value for bleeding complications during the first three months of treatment (area under the curve [AUC] 0.68, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.59-0.78), while only the ACCP score showed a modest predictive value after the initial three months (AUC 0.61, 95%CI 0.51-0.72). These two scores had also the highest sensitivity and the highest negative predictive value. None of the scores predicted MB better than chance. Currently available bleeding risk scores had only a modest predictive value for patients with VTE. Future studies should aim at the creation of a new prediction rule, in order to better define the risk of bleeding of VTE patients. PMID:24899092

  9. Arginine Patch Predicts the RNA Annealing Activity of Hfq from Gram-Negative and Gram-Positive Bacteria.

    PubMed

    Zheng, Amy; Panja, Subrata; Woodson, Sarah A

    2016-06-01

    The Sm-protein Hfq facilitates interactions between small non-coding RNA (sRNA) and target mRNAs. In enteric Gram-negative bacteria, Hfq is required for sRNA regulation, and hfq deletion results in stress intolerance and reduced virulence. By contrast, the role of Hfq in Gram-positive is less established and varies among species. The RNA binding and RNA annealing activity of Hfq from Escherichia coli, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Listeria monocytogenes, Bacillus subtilis, and Staphylococcus aureus were compared using minimal RNAs and fluorescence spectroscopy. The results show that RNA annealing activity increases with the number of arginines in a semi-conserved patch on the rim of the Hfq hexamer and correlates with the previously reported requirement for Hfq in sRNA regulation. Thus, the amino acid sequence of the arginine patch can predict the chaperone function of Hfq in sRNA regulation in different organisms. PMID:27049793

  10. Risk of Tuberculosis Among Patients on Dialysis: The Predictive Value of Serial Interferon-Gamma Release Assay.

    PubMed

    Shu, Chin-Chung; Hsu, Chia-Lin; Wei, Yu-Feng; Lee, Chih-Yuan; Liou, Hung-Hsiang; Wu, Vin-Cent; Yang, Feng-Jung; Lin, Hsien-Ho; Wang, Jann-Yuan; Chen, Jin-Shing; Yu, Chong-Jen; Lee, Li-Na

    2016-05-01

    Patients on long-term dialysis are at high risk for tuberculosis (TB). Although latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) is good target for TB eradication, interferon-gamma release assay-defined LTBI has a high proportion of negative conversion and lacks active TB correlation among patients on dialysis.Patients on long-term dialysis were screened in multiple centers in Taiwan. QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-tube (QFT-GIT) was used to define LTBI and was performed thrice at 6-month intervals. The primary outcome was active TB diagnosed after LTBI screening. The incidence and predictive value of QFT-GIT were analyzed.The 940 dialysis patients enrolled had an average age of 59.3 years. The initial QFT-GIT results were positive in 193, including 49.6% with persistent positive results on second check. In an average follow-up period of 3 years, 7 patients had TB. Three (319.1 per 100,000 person-yrs) and 4 (141.8 per 100,000 person-yrs) of them were prevalent and incident TB cases, respectively. Persistent positive QFT-GIT for 2 and 3 times correlated with increased hazard ratio for TB (14.44 and 20.29, respectively) compared with a single positive result (hazard ratio 10.38). Among those with 3 positive QFT-GIT results, TB development rate was 4.5% and incidence rate was 1352.3 per 100,000 person-years. In contrast, none of the incident TB occurred in those with initial positive and then negative conversion of QFT-GIT.In an area of intermediate TB incidence, dialysis patients have high TB risk. LTBI status is a good predictor of TB development, especially for those with more than 1 positive result. After excluding prevalent TB cases, serial follow-up of LTBI may narrow the target population to reduce treatment costs. PMID:27258523

  11. MELANCHOLIC DEPRESSION PREDICTION BY IDENTIFYING REPRESENTATIVE FEATURES IN METABOLIC AND MICROARRAY PROFILES WITH MISSING VALUES

    PubMed Central

    Nie, Zhi; Yang, Tao; Liu, Yashu; Lin, Binbin; Li, Qingyang; Narayan, Vaibhav A; Wittenberg, Gayle; Ye, Jieping

    2014-01-01

    Recent studies have revealed that melancholic depression, one major subtype of depression, is closely associated with the concentration of some metabolites and biological functions of certain genes and pathways. Meanwhile, recent advances in biotechnologies have allowed us to collect a large amount of genomic data, e.g., metabolites and microarray gene expression. With such a huge amount of information available, one approach that can give us new insights into the understanding of the fundamental biology underlying melancholic depression is to build disease status prediction models using classification or regression methods. However, the existence of strong empirical correlations, e.g., those exhibited by genes sharing the same biological pathway in microarray profiles, tremendously limits the performance of these methods. Furthermore, the occurrence of missing values which are ubiquitous in biomedical applications further complicates the problem. In this paper, we hypothesize that the problem of missing values might in some way benefit from the correlation between the variables and propose a method to learn a compressed set of representative features through an adapted version of sparse coding which is capable of identifying correlated variables and addressing the issue of missing values simultaneously. An efficient algorithm is also developed to solve the proposed formulation. We apply the proposed method on metabolic and microarray profiles collected from a group of subjects consisting of both patients with melancholic depression and healthy controls. Results show that the proposed method can not only produce meaningful clusters of variables but also generate a set of representative features that achieve superior classification performance over those generated by traditional clustering and data imputation techniques. In particular, on both datasets, we found that in comparison with the competing algorithms, the representative features learned by the proposed

  12. Melancholic depression prediction by identifying representative features in metabolic and microarray profiles with missing values.

    PubMed

    Nie, Zhi; Yang, Tao; Liu, Yashu; Li, Qingyang; Narayan, Vaibhav A; Wittenberg, Gayle; Ye, Jieping

    2015-01-01

    Recent studies have revealed that melancholic depression, one major subtype of depression, is closely associated with the concentration of some metabolites and biological functions of certain genes and pathways. Meanwhile, recent advances in biotechnologies have allowed us to collect a large amount of genomic data, e.g., metabolites and microarray gene expression. With such a huge amount of information available, one approach that can give us new insights into the understanding of the fundamental biology underlying melancholic depression is to build disease status prediction models using classification or regression methods. However, the existence of strong empirical correlations, e.g., those exhibited by genes sharing the same biological pathway in microarray profiles, tremendously limits the performance of these methods. Furthermore, the occurrence of missing values which are ubiquitous in biomedical applications further complicates the problem. In this paper, we hypothesize that the problem of missing values might in some way benefit from the correlation between the variables and propose a method to learn a compressed set of representative features through an adapted version of sparse coding which is capable of identifying correlated variables and addressing the issue of missing values simultaneously. An efficient algorithm is also developed to solve the proposed formulation. We apply the proposed method on metabolic and microarray profiles collected from a group of subjects consisting of both patients with melancholic depression and healthy controls. Results show that the proposed method can not only produce meaningful clusters of variables but also generate a set of representative features that achieve superior classification performance over those generated by traditional clustering and data imputation techniques. In particular, on both datasets, we found that in comparison with the competing algorithms, the representative features learned by the proposed

  13. Discrete coding of stimulus value, reward expectation, and reward prediction error in the dorsal striatum.

    PubMed

    Oyama, Kei; Tateyama, Yukina; Hernádi, István; Tobler, Philippe N; Iijima, Toshio; Tsutsui, Ken-Ichiro

    2015-11-01

    To investigate how the striatum integrates sensory information with reward information for behavioral guidance, we recorded single-unit activity in the dorsal striatum of head-fixed rats participating in a probabilistic Pavlovian conditioning task with auditory conditioned stimuli (CSs) in which reward probability was fixed for each CS but parametrically varied across CSs. We found that the activity of many neurons was linearly correlated with the reward probability indicated by the CSs. The recorded neurons could be classified according to their firing patterns into functional subtypes coding reward probability in different forms such as stimulus value, reward expectation, and reward prediction error. These results suggest that several functional subgroups of dorsal striatal neurons represent different kinds of information formed through extensive prior exposure to CS-reward contingencies. PMID:26378201

  14. Harvestable vibrational energy from an avian source: theoretical predictions vs. measured values

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shafer, Michael W.; MacCurdy, Robert; Garcia, Ephrahim; Winkler, David

    2012-04-01

    For many reasons, it would be beneficial to have the capability of powering a wildlife tag over the course of multiple migratory seasons. Such an energy harvesting system would allow for more data collection and eliminate the need to replace depleted batteries. In this work, we investigate energy harvesting on birds and focus on vibrational energy harvesting. We review a method of predicting the amount of power that can be safely harvested from the birds such that the effect on their longterm survivability is not compromised. After showing that the safely harvestable power is significant in comparison to the circuits used in avian tags, we present testing results for the flight accelerations of two species of birds. Using these measured values, we then design harvesters that matched the flight acceleration frequency and are sufficiently low mass to be carried by the birds.

  15. Predictive control for voltage collapse avoidance using a modified discrete multi-valued PSO algorithm.

    PubMed

    Pourjafari, Ebrahim; Mojallali, Hamed

    2011-04-01

    Voltage stability is one of the most challenging concerns that power utilities are confronted with, and this paper proposes a voltage control scheme based on Model Predictive Control (MPC) to overcome this kind of instability. Voltage instability has a close relation with the adequacy of reactive power and the response of Under Load Tap Changers (ULTCs) to the voltage drop after the occurrence of a contingency. Therefore, the proposed method utilizes reactive power injection and tap changing to avoid voltage collapse. Considering discrete nature of the changes in the tap ratio and also in the reactive power injected by capacitor banks, the search area for the optimizer of MPC will be an integer area; consequently, a modified discrete multi-valued Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is considered to perform this optimization. Simulation results of applying the proposed control scheme to a 4-bus system confirm its capability to prevent voltage collapse. PMID:21251650

  16. Using a set of GM(1,1) models to predict values of diagnostic symptoms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tabaszewski, Maciej; Cempel, Czeslaw

    2015-02-01

    The main purpose of this study is to develop a methodology of predicting values of vibration symptoms of fan mills in a combined heat and power (CHP) plant. The study was based on grey system theory and GM(1,1) prognostic models with different window sizes for estimating model parameters. Such models have a number of features that are desirable from the point of view of data characteristics collected by the diagnostic system. When using moving window, GM(1,1) models tend to be adaptive. However, selecting an inappropriate window size can result in excessive forecast errors. The present study proposes three possible methods that can be used in automated diagnostic systems to counteract the excessive increase in the forecast error. A comparative analysis of their performance was conducted using data from fan mills in order to select the method which minimises the forecast error.

  17. Predictive value of myocardial radioisotope scanning in animals treated with doxorubicin

    SciTech Connect

    Gorton, S.J.; Wilson, G.A.; Sutherland, R.; Schenk, E.; Chacko, A.K.; Durakovic, A.; Bennett, J.M.

    1980-06-01

    Thirty-four New Zealand white rabbit were treated with doxorubicin and imaged weekly with Tc-99m pyrophosphate to define the value of abnormal myocardial images in predicting doxorubicin-induced cardiac toxicity. Increased myocardial uptake was detected in most animals on sustained treatment with doxorubicin. A greater proportion of the heart was involved with doxorubicin-related histologic changes in animals with strongly positive myocardial images than in treated animals with moderately positive or normal scans. The myocardial images returned to normal levels 2-6 wk after doxorubicin was discontinued. Five of seven rabbits that received doxorubicin after they had three moderately positive myocardial scans, died from congestive heart failure. Three rabbits whose doxorubicin was discontinued because of scan findings, survived for 6 wk or more before dying from renal failure. The three rabbits who received the highest total dose of doxorubicin died of renal failure without developing abnormal myocardial scans.

  18. Prior-predictive value from fast-growth simulations: Error analysis and bias estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Favaro, Alberto; Nickelsen, Daniel; Barykina, Elena; Engel, Andreas

    2015-01-01

    Variants of fluctuation theorems recently discovered in the statistical mechanics of nonequilibrium processes may be used for the efficient determination of high-dimensional integrals as typically occurring in Bayesian data analysis. In particular for multimodal distributions, Monte Carlo procedures not relying on perfect equilibration are advantageous. We provide a comprehensive statistical error analysis for the determination of the prior-predictive value (the evidence) in a Bayes problem, building on a variant of the Jarzynski equation. Special care is devoted to the characterization of the bias intrinsic to the method and statistical errors arising from exponential averages. We also discuss the determination of averages over multimodal posterior distributions with the help of a consequence of the Crooks relation. All our findings are verified by extensive numerical simulations of two model systems with bimodal likelihoods.

  19. A comparison of airborne wake vortex detection measurements with values predicted from potential theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stewart, Eric C.

    1991-01-01

    An analysis of flight measurements made near a wake vortex was conducted to explore the feasibility of providing a pilot with useful wake avoidance information. The measurements were made with relatively low cost flow and motion sensors on a light airplane flying near the wake vortex of a turboprop airplane weighing approximately 90000 lbs. Algorithms were developed which removed the response of the airplane to control inputs from the total airplane response and produced parameters which were due solely to the flow field of the vortex. These parameters were compared with values predicted by potential theory. The results indicated that the presence of the vortex could be detected by a combination of parameters derived from the simple sensors. However, the location and strength of the vortex cannot be determined without additional and more accurate sensors.

  20. Strongyloides stercoralis, Eosinophilia, and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: The Predictive Value of Eosinophilia in the Diagnosis of S stercoralis Infection in an Endemic Community.

    PubMed

    Hays, Russell; Thompson, Fintan; Esterman, Adrian; McDermott, Robyn

    2016-01-01

    Background.  This study examines the predictive value of eosinophilia for Strongyloides stercoralis infection, as measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) testing, in an endemic community. In remote communities, eosinophilia is frequently used as a proxy test for the presence of helminth infections. Past studies of eosinophilia and Strongyloides infection have been conducted in specific groups such as immigrants and refugees, or in subpopulations of nonendemic communities, rather than in endemic communities. Methods.  We conducted a cross-sectional study of the relationship between eosinophilia and Strongyloides ELISA serology, as part of a study into the relationship between S stercoralis infection and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in an Indigenous community in northern Australia. Results.  Two hundred thirty-nine adults had their eosinophil count and S stercoralis ELISA serology measured in 2012 and 2013, along with other biometric and metabolic data. Eosinophilia was found to have a relatively poor sensitivity (60.9%), specificity (71.1%), positive predictive value (54.6%), and negative predictive value (76.1%) for S stercoralis ELISA positivity in this group. However, there was a more constant relationship between eosinophilia and S Stercoralis ELISA positivity in patients with T2DM (negative predictive value 87.5%). Conclusion.  This study suggests that the presence or absence of eosinophilia is not an adequate proxy test for S stercoralis infection in a community where the infection is prevalent, and that the association between eosinophilia and S stercoralis ELISA positivity is more constant in patients with T2DM. PMID:26989753

  1. Strongyloides stercoralis, Eosinophilia, and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: The Predictive Value of Eosinophilia in the Diagnosis of S stercoralis Infection in an Endemic Community

    PubMed Central

    Hays, Russell; Thompson, Fintan; Esterman, Adrian; McDermott, Robyn

    2016-01-01

    Background. This study examines the predictive value of eosinophilia for Strongyloides stercoralis infection, as measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) testing, in an endemic community. In remote communities, eosinophilia is frequently used as a proxy test for the presence of helminth infections. Past studies of eosinophilia and Strongyloides infection have been conducted in specific groups such as immigrants and refugees, or in subpopulations of nonendemic communities, rather than in endemic communities. Methods. We conducted a cross-sectional study of the relationship between eosinophilia and Strongyloides ELISA serology, as part of a study into the relationship between S stercoralis infection and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in an Indigenous community in northern Australia. Results. Two hundred thirty-nine adults had their eosinophil count and S stercoralis ELISA serology measured in 2012 and 2013, along with other biometric and metabolic data. Eosinophilia was found to have a relatively poor sensitivity (60.9%), specificity (71.1%), positive predictive value (54.6%), and negative predictive value (76.1%) for S stercoralis ELISA positivity in this group. However, there was a more constant relationship between eosinophilia and S Stercoralis ELISA positivity in patients with T2DM (negative predictive value 87.5%). Conclusion. This study suggests that the presence or absence of eosinophilia is not an adequate proxy test for S stercoralis infection in a community where the infection is prevalent, and that the association between eosinophilia and S stercoralis ELISA positivity is more constant in patients with T2DM. PMID:26989753

  2. Predictive value of serum medroxyprogesterone acetate concentration for response in advanced or recurrent breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Nishimura, R; Nagao, K; Matsuda, M; Baba, K; Matsuoka, Y; Yamashita, H; Fukuda, M; Higuchi, A; Ikeda, K

    1997-08-01

    Medroxyprogesterone acetate (MPA) is one of the most commonly prescribed drugs for endocrine therapy of metastatic breast cancer. In this study, the serum MPA concentration was measured by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and evaluated for its usefulness in predicting the response in 79 cases of advanced or recurrent breast cancers. Overall, 29 patients (37%) achieved an objective response. The response rate correlated significantly with the oestrogen receptor (ER) status (P = 0.03), proliferative activity determined by DNA polymerase alpha (P = 0.04), the disease-free interval (DFI) (P = 0.05) and the serum MPA concentration (P < 0.001). Patients with ER-positive tumours, lower proliferative activity, a longer (DFI) or a higher serum MPA concentration responded more frequently. The mean serum MPA concentration in the responders with ER-positive tumours (P = 0.01) or tumours with a lower proliferative activity (P = 0.008) were significantly lower than in cases with ER-negative tumours or tumours with a higher proliferative activity, respectively. Cases with soft tissue metastases showed responses at significantly lower MPA concentrations (P = 0.003) than those with bone or visceral metastases. Furthermore, there was a dramatic decrease in the MPA concentration when a responder with a high concentration became unresponsive to the therapy. Thus, the serum MPA concentration is a determining factor for the response to treatment. PMID:9337682

  3. Positive predictive value of diagnosis coding for hemolytic anemias in the Danish National Patient Register

    PubMed Central

    Hansen, Dennis Lund; Overgaard, Ulrik Malthe; Pedersen, Lars; Frederiksen, Henrik

    2016-01-01

    Purpose The nationwide public health registers in Denmark provide a unique opportunity for evaluation of disease-associated morbidity if the positive predictive values (PPVs) of the primary diagnosis are known. The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive values of hemolytic anemias registered in the Danish National Patient Register. Patients and methods All patients with a first-ever diagnosis of hemolytic anemia from either specialist outpatient clinic contact or inpatient admission at Odense University Hospital from January 1994 through December 2011 were considered for inclusion. Patients with mechanical reason for hemolysis such as an artificial heart valve, and patients with vitamin-B12 or folic acid deficiency were excluded. Results We identified 412 eligible patients: 249 with a congenital hemolytic anemia diagnosis and 163 with acquired hemolytic anemia diagnosis. In all, hemolysis was confirmed in 359 patients, yielding an overall PPV of 87.1% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 83.5%–90.2%). A diagnosis could be established in 392 patients of whom 355 patients had a hemolytic diagnosis. Diagnosis was confirmed in 197 of the 249 patients with congenital hemolytic anemia, yielding a PPV of 79.1% (95% CI: 73.5%–84.0%). Diagnosis of acquired hemolytic anemia could be confirmed in 136 of the 163 patients, resulting in a PPV of 83.4% (95% CI: 76.8%–88.8%). For hemoglobinopathy PPV was 84.1% (95% CI: 77.4%–89.4%), for hereditary spherocytosis PPV was 80.6% (95% CI: 69.5%–88.9%), and for autoimmune hemolytic anemia PPV was 78.4% (95% CI: 70.4%–85.0%). Conclusion The PPV of hemolytic anemias was moderately high. The PPVs were comparable in the three main categories of overall hemolysis, and congenital and acquired hemolytic anemia. PMID:27445504

  4. On marker-assisted prediction of genetic value: beyond the ridge.

    PubMed Central

    Gianola, Daniel; Perez-Enciso, Miguel; Toro, Miguel A

    2003-01-01

    Marked-assisted genetic improvement of agricultural species exploits statistical dependencies in the joint distribution of marker genotypes and quantitative traits. An issue is how molecular (e.g., dense marker maps) and phenotypic information (e.g., some measure of yield in plants) is to be used for predicting the genetic value of candidates for selection. Multiple regression, selection index techniques, best linear unbiased prediction, and ridge regression of phenotypes on marker genotypes have been suggested, as well as more elaborate methods. Here, phenotype-marker associations are modeled hierarchically via multilevel models including chromosomal effects, a spatial covariance of marked effects within chromosomes, background genetic variability, and family heterogeneity. Lorenz curves and Gini coefficients are suggested for assessing the inequality of the contribution of different marked effects to genetic variability. Classical and Bayesian methods are presented. The Bayesian approach includes a Markov chain Monte Carlo implementation. The generality and flexibility of the Bayesian method is illustrated when a Lorenz curve is to be inferred. PMID:12586721

  5. Prognostic and Predictive Value of DAMPs and DAMP-Associated Processes in Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Fucikova, Jitka; Moserova, Irena; Urbanova, Linda; Bezu, Lucillia; Kepp, Oliver; Cremer, Isabelle; Salek, Cyril; Strnad, Pavel; Kroemer, Guido; Galluzzi, Lorenzo; Spisek, Radek

    2015-01-01

    It is now clear that human neoplasms form, progress, and respond to therapy in the context of an intimate crosstalk with the host immune system. In particular, accumulating evidence demonstrates that the efficacy of most, if not all, chemo- and radiotherapeutic agents commonly employed in the clinic critically depends on the (re)activation of tumor-targeting immune responses. One of the mechanisms whereby conventional chemotherapeutics, targeted anticancer agents, and radiotherapy can provoke a therapeutically relevant, adaptive immune response against malignant cells is commonly known as “immunogenic cell death.” Importantly, dying cancer cells are perceived as immunogenic only when they emit a set of immunostimulatory signals upon the activation of intracellular stress response pathways. The emission of these signals, which are generally referred to as “damage-associated molecular patterns” (DAMPs), may therefore predict whether patients will respond to chemotherapy or not, at least in some settings. Here, we review clinical data indicating that DAMPs and DAMP-associated stress responses might have prognostic or predictive value for cancer patients. PMID:26300886

  6. Prognostic and Predictive Values of Subcellular Localisation of RET in Renal Clear-Cell Carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Lei; Zhang, Yu; Gao, Yu; Fan, Yang; Chen, Luyao; Liu, Kan; Meng, Qingyu; Zhao, Chaofei; Ma, Xin

    2016-01-01

    Metastatic renal cell carcinoma (RCC) presents a poor prognosis and an unpredictable course. To date, no validated biomarkers can predict the outcome of RCC. Ongoing efforts are conducted to identify the molecular markers of RCC progression, as well as the targets for novel therapeutic approaches. RET is a tyrosine kinase receptor which has been investigated as a possible target in other cancers because it is involved in oncogenic activation. To evaluate the predictive and prognostic functions of RET in ccRCC, a tissue microarray study was conducted on 273 ccRCC patients. Results showed that both RET cytoplasmic and nuclear expression were independently associated with PFS and OS, and the combined RET cytoplasmic and nuclear statuses demonstrated that the ratio of high nuclear RET and cytoplasmic RET was the strongest predictor of both PFS and OS. The high cytoplasmic RET expression retained its independent poor prognostic value in targeted drug treated patients. The RET nuclear expression was associated with distant metastasis. Moreover, the RET nuclear expression was an independent predictor of ccRCC postoperative metastasis. In conclusion, RET may be useful in prognostication and can be used at initial diagnosis to identify patients with high potential to develop metastasis. PMID:27092013

  7. Value of MR histogram analyses for prediction of microvascular invasion of hepatocellular carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Ya-Qin; Liang, He-Yue; Yang, Zhao-Xia; Ding, Ying; Zeng, Meng-Su; Rao, Sheng-Xiang

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The objective is to explore the value of preoperative magnetic resonance (MR) histogram analyses in predicting microvascular invasion (MVI) of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Fifty-one patients with histologically confirmed HCC who underwent diffusion-weighted and contrast-enhanced MR imaging were included. Histogram analyses were performed and mean, variance, skewness, kurtosis, 1th, 10th, 50th, 90th, and 99th percentiles were derived. Quantitative histogram parameters were compared between HCCs with and without MVI. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analyses were generated to compare the diagnostic performance of tumor size, histogram analyses of apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) maps, and MR enhancement. The mean, 1th, 10th, and 50th percentiles of ADC maps, and the mean, variance. 1th, 10th, 50th, 90th, and 99th percentiles of the portal venous phase (PVP) images were significantly different between the groups with and without MVI (P <0.05), with area under the ROC curves (AUCs) of 0.66 to 0.74 for ADC and 0.76 to 0.88 for PVP. The largest AUC of PVP (1th percentile) showed significantly higher accuracy compared with that of arterial phase (AP) or tumor size (P <0.001). MR histogram analyses—in particular for 1th percentile for PVP images—held promise for prediction of MVI of HCC. PMID:27368028

  8. Poor Predictive Value of Intraoperative Real-Time Dosimetry for Prostate Seed Brachytherapy

    SciTech Connect

    Igidbashian, Levon; Donath, David; Carrier, Jean-Francois; Lassalle, Stephanie; Hervieux, Yannick; David, Sandrine; Bahary, Jean-Paul; Taussky, Daniel

    2008-10-01

    Purpose: To identify dosimetric parameters predictive of a good prostate seed I{sup 125} quality implant. We analyzed preimplant and postimplant realtime dosimetry in patients treated with intraoperative (IO) inverse planning. Methods and Materials: We analyzed 127 consecutively treated patients with primarily low-risk prostate carcinoma who underwent prostate permanent seed I{sup 125} brachytherapy using an IO planning approach. The implant was done using the three-dimensional transrectal ultrasound (PRE-TRUS)-guided IO interactive inverse preplanning system. The TRUS was repeated in the operating room after the implant procedure was complete (POST-TRUS). The prostate was recontoured and postimplant dosimetry was calculated. Each patient underwent computed tomography scan on Day 28 (CT-D28) to evaluate implant quality. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC) was evaluated for models predictive of a V100 of {>=}90% and a D90 of {>=}140 Gy on the basis of CT-D28 values. Results: On CT-D28, 72.4% of patients had a V100 of {>=}90% and 74.8% had a D90 of {>=}140 Gy. AUROC for a V100 of {>=}90% was 0.665 (p = 0.004) on PRE-TRUS and 0.619 (p = 0.039) on POST-TRUS. AUROC for D90 of {>=}140 Gy was 0.602 (p = 0.086) on PRE-TRUS and 0.614 (p = 0.054) on POST-TRUS. Using PRE-TRUS V100 cutoff of >97% gives sensitivity of 88% and a false-positive rate of 63%. A POST-TRUS D90 cutoff of >170 Gy resulted in a sensitivity of 62% and a false-positive rate of 34%. Conclusions: Because of unacceptably high false-positive rates, IO preimplant and postimplant TRUS-based dosimetry are not accurate tools to predict for postimplant computed tomography-based dosimetry.

  9. Culture-negative Bartonella endocarditis in a patient with renal failure: the value of molecular methods in diagnosis.

    PubMed

    Todd, S; Xu, J; Millar, B C; Moore, J E; Crowe, M; Raoult, D; Harrison, T; Hill, C; Douglas, J

    2004-01-01

    Members of the genus Bartonella are increasingly recognised as a cause of culture-negative endocarditis, particularly in those patients with underlying risk factors (e.g., homelessness and alcoholism (B. quintana) or valvulopathy and cat ownership (B. henselae). The aortic and mitral-valves are most commonly involved. Here, a case is reported of culture-negative right-sided endocarditis, without any of the above risk factors, due to Bartonella sp. in a 69-year-old man who presented with acute renal failure. The diagnosis was made using a broad-range 16S rRNA polymerase chain reaction (PCR) technique and direct automated sequencing on a peripheral blood sample, which was subsequently confirmed serologically. A review of the literature on Bartonella endocarditis is also presented. Molecular laboratory methods using peripheral blood or blood cultures may be very useful in the diagnosis of causal agents in culture-negative endocarditis and add further support to the recently inclusion of molecular (PCR) diagnosis, as a major Duke's criterion, for the diagnosis of infective endocarditis. PMID:15649011

  10. Tree-Based Models for Predicting Mortality in Gram-Negative Bacteremia: Avoid Putting the CART before the Horse

    PubMed Central

    O'Donnell, J. Nicholas; Lizza, Bryan D.; McLaughlin, Milena M.; Esterly, John S.

    2015-01-01

    Increasingly, infectious disease studies employ tree-based approaches, e.g., classification and regression tree modeling, to identify clinical thresholds. We present tree-based-model-derived thresholds along with their measures of uncertainty. We explored individual and pooled clinical cohorts of bacteremic patients to identify modified acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (II) (m-APACHE-II) score mortality thresholds using a tree-based approach. Predictive performance measures for each candidate threshold were calculated. Candidate thresholds were examined according to binary logistic regression probabilities of the primary outcome, correct classification predictive matrices, and receiver operating characteristic curves. Three individual cohorts comprising a total of 235 patients were studied. Within the pooled cohort, the mean (± standard deviation) m-APACHE-II score was 13.6 ± 5.3, with an in-hospital mortality of 16.6%. The probability of death was greater at higher m-APACHE II scores in only one of three cohorts (odds ratio for cohort 1 [OR1] = 1.15, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.99 to 1.34; OR2 = 1.04, 95% CI = 0.94 to 1.16; OR3 = 1.18, 95% CI = 1.02 to 1.38) and was greater at higher scores within the pooled cohort (OR4 = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.04 to 1.19). In contrast, tree-based models overcame power constraints and identified m-APACHE-II thresholds for mortality in two of three cohorts (P = 0.02, 0.1, and 0.008) and the pooled cohort (P = 0.001). Predictive performance at each threshold was highly variable among cohorts. The selection of any one predictive threshold value resulted in fixed sensitivity and specificity. Tree-based models increased power and identified threshold values from continuous predictor variables; however, sample size and data distributions influenced the identified thresholds. The provision of predictive matrices or graphical displays of predicted probabilities within infectious disease studies can improve the

  11. Relative value of ZAP-70, CD38, and immunoglobulin mutation status in predicting aggressive disease in chronic lymphocytic leukemia

    PubMed Central

    Rassenti, Laura Z.; Jain, Sonia; Keating, Michael J.; Wierda, William G.; Grever, Michael R.; Byrd, John C.; Kay, Neil E.; Brown, Jennifer R.; Gribben, John G.; Neuberg, Donna S.; He, Feng; Greaves, Andrew W.; Rai, Kanti R.

    2008-01-01

    Leukemia-cell expression of ZAP-70, CD38, or unmutated immunoglobulin heavy chain variable region genes (U-IGHV) each is associated with aggressive disease in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). To assess the relative strength of each marker, we defined thresholds for designating a case as positive for CD38 or ZAP-70 in a test cohort of 307 patients and used these data-defined criteria to stratify patients in an independent cohort of 705 patients. Multivariable analysis revealed that ZAP-70 was the strongest risk factor. Knowledge of the IGHV mutation status or CD38 did not improve our ability to predict the time to first treatment except for ZAP-70–negative cases, which could be segregated into 2 groups of intermediate-risk or low-risk disease based on whether they expressed unmutated or mutated IGHV. ZAP-70 maintained its high relative prognostic value for the subset of patients with early-stage, asymptomatic disease, including patients evaluated within 1 year of diagnosis. Although it is premature to recommend therapy based on these risk factors, patients with ZAP-70–positive CLL cells should be monitored closely for disease progression as they have a median time from diagnosis to requiring initial therapy by standard criteria of approximately 3 years. PMID:18577710

  12. The role of negative mood states and consequences of hypersexual behaviours in predicting hypersexuality among university students

    PubMed Central

    Dhuffar, Manpreet K.; Pontes, Halley M.; Griffiths, Mark D.

    2015-01-01

    Background and Aims The issue of whether hypersexual behaviours exist among university students is controversial because many of these individuals engage in sexual exploration during their time at university. To date, little is known about the correlates of hypersexual behaviours among university students in the UK. Therefore, the aims of this exploratory study were two-fold. Firstly, to explore and establish the correlates of hypersexual behaviours, and secondly, to investigate whether hypersexuality among university students can be predicted by variables relating to negative mood states (i.e., emotional dysregulation, loneliness, shame, and life satisfaction) and consequences of hypersexual behaviour. Methods Survey data from 165 British university students was analysed using regression analyses. Results The full regression model significantly predicted hypersexual behaviours. However, only a small number of predictor variables (i.e., gender, consequences of hypersexual behaviours, life satisfaction and emotional dysregulation) accounted for the significant unique influence on hypersexual behaviours among the sample. Conclusions The study empirically supported the concept of hypersexual disorder. The implications of these findings are also discussed. PMID:26551908

  13. Increased firing to cues that predict low-value reward in the medial orbitofrontal cortex.

    PubMed

    Burton, Amanda C; Kashtelyan, Vadim; Bryden, Daniel W; Roesch, Matthew R

    2014-12-01

    Anatomical, imaging, and lesion work have suggested that medial and lateral aspects of orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) play different roles in reward-guided decision-making, yet few single-neuron recording studies have examined activity in more medial parts of the OFC (mOFC) making it difficult to fully assess its involvement in motivated behavior. Previously, we have shown that neurons in lateral parts of the OFC (lOFC) selectively fire for rewards of different values. In that study, we trained rats to respond to different fluid wells for rewards of different sizes or delivered at different delays. Rats preferred large over small reward, and rewards delivered after short compared with long delays. Here, we recorded from single neurons in rat rostral mOFC as they performed the same task. Similar to the lOFC, activity was attenuated for rewards that were delivered after long delays and was enhanced for delivery of larger rewards. However, unlike lOFC, odor-responsive neurons in the mOFC were more active when cues predicted low-value outcomes. These data suggest that odor-responsive mOFC neurons signal the association between environmental cues and unfavorable outcomes during decision making. PMID:23901075

  14. Prediction of breeding values for tenderness of market animals from measurements on bulls.

    PubMed

    Barkhouse, K L; Van Vleck, L D; Cundiff, L V; Koohmaraie, M; Lunstra, D D; Crouse, J D

    1996-11-01

    Data were tenderness measures on steaks from 237 bulls (Group II) slaughtered after producing freezable semen and on 1,431 related steers and heifers (market animals, Group I) from Angus, Hereford, Pinzgauer, Brahman, and Sahiwal crosses from the Germ Plasm Evaluation project at the U.S. Meat Animal Research Center. Tenderness was assessed through Warner-Bratzler Shear Force (SF), taste panel tenderness (TPT), marbling score (MS), and myofibrillar fragmentation index (MFI). For all traits, as fraction Bos indicus inheritance increased, implied tenderness decreased. Heritability estimates were generally not significantly different from zero. Genetic correlations generally indicated favorable associations among the traits. The range in predicted breeding values of bulls for market animal tenderness was small and from -.34 to .32 kg for market animal shear force. Because of low estimates of heritability for SF or TPT, results from this experiment indicate that selection based on tenderness of steaks sampled from intact or late castrate males slaughtered following collection of freezable quality semen would not be very effective in improving average tenderness of steaks from steers of heifer progeny. If a mean of heritability estimates reported in the literature of .27 for shear value was assumed for market steer and heifer progeny instead of .02 as found in the present study, then selection based on estimates of shear force in young bulls would be relatively more effective in improving shear force of market progeny. PMID:8923175

  15. Using heuristic value prediction and dynamic task granularity resizing to improve software speculation.

    PubMed

    Xu, Fan; Shen, Li; Wang, Zhiying; Su, Bo; Guo, Hui; Chen, Wei

    2014-01-01

    Exploiting potential thread-level parallelism (TLP) is becoming the key factor to improving performance of programs on multicore or many-core systems. Among various kinds of parallel execution models, the software-based speculative parallel model has become a research focus due to its low cost, high efficiency, flexibility, and scalability. The performance of the guest program under the software-based speculative parallel execution model is closely related to the speculation accuracy, the control overhead, and the rollback overhead of the model. In this paper, we first analyzed the conventional speculative parallel model and presented an analytic model of its expectation of the overall overhead, then optimized the conventional model based on the analytic model, and finally proposed a novel speculative parallel model named HEUSPEC. The HEUSPEC model includes three key techniques, namely, the heuristic value prediction, the value based correctness checking, and the dynamic task granularity resizing. We have implemented the runtime system of the model in ANSI C language. The experiment results show that when the speedup of the HEUSPEC model can reach 2.20 on the average (15% higher than conventional model) when depth is equal to 3 and 4.51 on the average (12% higher than conventional model) when speculative depth is equal to 7. Besides, it shows good scalability and lower memory cost. PMID:24971374

  16. Prediction of hepatic microsomal intrinsic clearance and human clearance values for drugs.

    PubMed

    Nikolic, Katarina; Agababa, Danica

    2009-10-01

    Twenty-nine drugs of different structures were used in theoretical QSAR analysis of human hepatic microsomal intrinsic clearance (in vitro T(1/2) and in vitro CL'(int)) and whole body clearance (CL(blood)). The examined compounds demonstrated a wide range of scaled intrinsic clearance values. Constitutional, geometrical, physico-chemical and electronic descriptors were computed for the examined structures by use of the Marvin Sketch 5.1.3_2, the Chem3D Ultra 7.0.0 and the Dragon 5.4 program. Partial least squares regression (PLSR), has been applied for selection of the most relevant molecular descriptors and development of quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) model for human hepatic microsomal intrinsic clearance (in vitro T(1/2)). Optimal QSAR models with nine and ten variables, R(2)>0.808 and cross-validation parameter q(pre)(2)>0.623, were selected and compared. Since the microsomal in vitro T(1/2) data can be used for calculation of in vitro CL'(int) and in vivo CL(blood), the developed QSAR model will enable one to analyze the kinetics of cytochrome P450-mediated reactions in term of intrinsic clearance and whole body clearance. A comparison is made between predictions produced from the QSAR analysis and experimental data, and there appears to be generally satisfactory correlations with the literature values for intrinsic clearance data. PMID:19713138

  17. Protein charge ladders reveal that the net charge of ALS-linked superoxide dismutase can be different in sign and magnitude from predicted values

    PubMed Central

    Shi, Yunhua; Abdolvahabi, Alireza; Shaw, Bryan F

    2014-01-01

    This article utilized “protein charge ladders”—chemical derivatives of proteins with similar structure, but systematically altered net charge—to quantify how missense mutations that cause amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) affect the net negative charge (Z) of superoxide dismutase-1 (SOD1) as a function of subcellular pH and Zn2+ stoichiometry. Capillary electrophoresis revealed that the net charge of ALS-variant SOD1 can be different in sign and in magnitude—by up to 7.4 units per dimer at lysosomal pH—than values predicted from standard pKa values of amino acids and formal oxidation states of metal ions. At pH 7.4, the G85R, D90A, and G93R substitutions diminished the net negative charge of dimeric SOD1 by up to +2.29 units more than predicted; E100K lowered net charge by less than predicted. The binding of a single Zn2+ to mutant SOD1 lowered its net charge by an additional +2.33 ± 0.01 to +3.18 ± 0.02 units, however, each protein regulated net charge when binding a second, third, or fourth Zn2+ (ΔZ < 0.44 ± 0.07 per additional Zn2+). Both metalated and apo-SOD1 regulated net charge across subcellular pH, without inverting from negative to positive at the theoretical pI. Differential scanning calorimetry, hydrogen-deuterium exchange, and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry confirmed that the structure, stability, and metal content of mutant proteins were not significantly affected by lysine acetylation. Measured values of net charge should be used when correlating the biophysical properties of a specific ALS-variant SOD1 protein with its observed aggregation propensity or clinical phenotype. PMID:25052939

  18. Incremental shuttle walk test: Reference values and predictive equation for healthy Indian adults

    PubMed Central

    Agarwal, Bela; Shah, Monal; Andhare, Nilesh; Mullerpatan, Rajani

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: Physical inactivity in Indians is leading to an increase in noncommunicable disorders at an early age in life. Early identification and quantification of the lack of physical activity using simple and reliable exercise testing is the need of the hour. The incremental shuttle walk test (ISWT) is an externally paced walk test widely used for the evaluation of exercise capacity. Currently the normative values available for clinical reference are generated from Western populations. Hence, the study was conducted to find normative values for the ISWT in healthy Indian adults (17-75 years). Materials and Methods: A convenience sample of 862 subjects was recruited after ethical approval was obtained. All subjects were divided into groups as per age and gender. For age, the grouping was as follows: Group 1: Young adulthood (17-40 years), group 2: Middle adulthood (40-65 years), and group 3: Old adulthood (>65 years). The ISWT was performed as per standard protocol by Sally Singh. Results: The average distance walked were 709.2m,556.4m and 441.3m in females and 807.9 m, 639.6 m and 478.2 m in males in the three respective age groups. Stepwise regression analysis revealed age and gender as key variables correlating with incremental shuttle walk distance (ISWD). The derived predictive equations for males and females may be given as follows: 740.351 - (5.676 × age) + (99.007 × gender). Conclusion: Reference values were generated for healthy Indian adults. Physiological response to the ISWT was shown to be affected by gender and increasing age. Easily measurable variables explained 68% of the variance seen in the test, making the reference equation a relevant part of the evaluation of the ISWT. PMID:26933305

  19. Generalized approach for using unbiased symmetric metrics with negative values: normalized mean bias factor and normalized mean absolute error factor

    SciTech Connect

    Gustafson, William I.; Yu, Shaocai

    2012-10-23

    Unbiased symmetric metrics provide a useful measure to quickly compare two datasets, with similar interpretations for both under and overestimations. Two examples include the normalized mean bias factor and normalized mean absolute error factor. However, the original formulations of these metrics are only valid for datasets with positive means. This paper presents a methodology to use and interpret the metrics with datasets that have negative means. The updated formulations give identical results compared to the original formulations for the case of positive means, so researchers are encouraged to use the updated formulations going forward without introducing ambiguity.

  20. Climate change is predicted to negatively influence Moroccan endemic reptile richness. Implications for conservation in protected areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martínez-Freiría, Fernando; Argaz, Hamida; Fahd, Soumía; Brito, José C.

    2013-09-01

    The identification of species-rich areas and their prognosticated turnover under climate change are crucial for the conservation of endemic taxa. This study aims to identify areas of reptile endemicity richness in a global biodiversity hot spot (Morocco) under current and future climatic conditions and to investigate the role of protected areas in biodiversity conservation under climate change. Species distribution models (SDM) were performed over the distribution of 21 endemic reptiles, combined to estimate current species richness at 1 × 1 km resolution and projected to years 2050 and 2080 according to distinct story lines and ensemble global circulation models, assuming unlimited and null dispersion ability. Generalized additive models were performed between species richness and geographic characteristics of 43 protected areas. SDM found precipitation as the most important factor related to current species distributions. Important reductions in future suitable areas were predicted for 50 % of species, and four species were identified as highly vulnerable to extinction. Drastic reductions in species-rich areas were predicted for the future, with considerable variability between years and dispersal scenarios. High turnover rates of species composition were predicted for eastern Morocco, whereas low values were forecasted for the Northern Atlantic coast and mountains. Species richness for current and future conditions was significantly related to the altitude and latitude of protected areas. Protected areas located in mountains and/or in the Northern Atlantic coast were identified as refugia, where population monitoring and conservation management is needed.

  1. Predictive value of bovine follicular components as markers of oocyte developmental potential.

    PubMed

    Matoba, Satoko; Bender, Katrin; Fahey, Alan G; Mamo, Solomon; Brennan, Lorraine; Lonergan, Patrick; Fair, Trudee

    2014-01-01

    The follicle is a unique micro-environment within which the oocyte can develop and mature to a fertilisable gamete. The aim of this study was to investigate the ability of a panel of follicular parameters, including intrafollicular steroid and metabolomic profiles and theca, granulosa and cumulus cell candidate gene mRNA abundance, to predict the potential of bovine oocytes to develop to the blastocyst stage in vitro. Individual follicles were dissected from abattoir ovaries, carefully ruptured under a stereomicroscope and the oocyte was recovered and individually processed through in vitro maturation, fertilisation and culture. The mean (±s.e.m.) follicular concentrations of testosterone (62.8±4.8 ngmL(-1)), progesterone (616.8±31.9 ngmL(-1)) and oestradiol (14.4±2.4 ngmL(-1)) were not different (P>0.05) between oocytes that formed (competent) or failed to form (incompetent) blastocysts. Principal-component analysis of the quantified aqueous metabolites in follicular fluid showed differences between oocytes that formed blastocysts and oocytes that degenerated; l-alanine, glycine and l-glutamate were positively correlated and urea was negatively correlated with blastocyst formation. Follicular fluid associated with competent oocytes was significantly lower in palmitic acid (P=0.023) and total fatty acids (P=0.031) and significantly higher in linolenic acid (P=0.036) than follicular fluid from incompetent oocytes. Significantly higher (P<0.05) transcript abundance of LHCGR in granulosa cells, ESR1 and VCAN in thecal cells and TNFAIP6 in cumulus cells was associated with competent compared with incompetent oocytes. PMID:23514964

  2. Anti-citrullinated peptide antibodies and their value for predicting responses to biologic agents: a review.

    PubMed

    Martin-Mola, Emilio; Balsa, Alejandro; García-Vicuna, Rosario; Gómez-Reino, Juan; González-Gay, Miguel Angel; Sanmartí, Raimon; Loza, Estíbaliz

    2016-08-01

    Anti-citrullinated peptide antibodies (ACPAs) play an important pathogenic role both at the onset and during the disease course. These antibodies precede the clinical appearance of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and are associated with a less favorable prognosis, both clinically and radiologically. The objective of this work was to conduct a comprehensive review of studies published through September 2015 of ACPAs' role as a predictor of the therapeutic response to the biological agents in RA patients. The review also includes summary of the biology and detection of ACPAs as well as ACPAs in relation to joint disease and CV disease and the possible role of seroconversion. The reviews of studies examining TNF inhibitors and tocilizumab yielded negative results. In the case of rituximab, the data indicated a greater probability of clinical benefit in ACPA(+) patients versus ACPA(-) patients, as has been previously described for rheumatoid factor. Nonetheless, the effect is discreet and heterogeneous. Another drug that may have greater effectiveness in ACPA(+) patients is abatacept. Some studies have suggested that the drug is more efficient in ACPA(+) patients and that those patients show greater drug retention. In a subanalysis of the AMPLE trial, patients with very high ACPA titers who were treated with abatacept had a statistically significant response compared to patients with lower titers. In summary, the available studies suggest that the presence of or high titers of ACPA may predict a better response to rituximab and/or abatacept. Evidence regarding TNFi and tocilizumab is lacking. However, there is a lack of studies with appropriate designs to demonstrate that some drugs are superior to others for ACPA(+) patients. PMID:27271502

  3. Computational analysis of image-based drug profiling predicts synergistic drug combinations: applications in triple-negative breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Brandl, Miriam B; Pasquier, Eddy; Li, Fuhai; Beck, Dominik; Zhang, Sufang; Zhao, Hong; Kavallaris, Maria; Wong, Stephen T C

    2014-12-01

    An imaged-based profiling and analysis system was developed to predict clinically effective synergistic drug combinations that could accelerate the identification of effective multi-drug therapies for the treatment of triple-negative breast cancer and other challenging malignancies. The identification of effective drug combinations for the treatment of triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) was achieved by integrating high-content screening, computational analysis, and experimental biology. The approach was based on altered cellular phenotypes induced by 55 FDA-approved drugs and biologically active compounds, acquired using fluorescence microscopy and retained in multivariate compound profiles. Dissimilarities between compound profiles guided the identification of 5 combinations, which were assessed for qualitative interaction on TNBC cell growth. The combination of the microtubule-targeting drug vinblastine with KSP/Eg5 motor protein inhibitors monastrol or ispinesib showed potent synergism in 3 independent TNBC cell lines, which was not substantiated in normal fibroblasts. The synergistic interaction was mediated by an increase in mitotic arrest with cells demonstrating typical ispinesib-induced monopolar mitotic spindles, which translated into enhanced apoptosis induction. The antitumour activity of the combination vinblastine/ispinesib was confirmed in an orthotopic mouse model of TNBC. Compared to single drug treatment, combination treatment significantly reduced tumour growth without causing increased toxicity. Image-based profiling and analysis led to the rapid discovery of a drug combination effective against TNBC in vitro and in vivo, and has the potential to lead to the development of new therapeutic options in other hard-to-treat cancers. PMID:24997502

  4. The value of using feasibility models in systematic conservation planning to predict landholder management uptake.

    PubMed

    Tulloch, Ayesha I T; Tulloch, Vivitskaia J D; Evans, Megan C; Mills, Morena

    2014-12-01

    Understanding the social dimensions of conservation opportunity is crucial for conservation planning in multiple-use landscapes. However, factors that influence the feasibility of implementing conservation actions, such as the history of landscape management, and landholders' willingness to engage are often difficult or time consuming to quantify and rarely incorporated into planning. We examined how conservation agencies could reduce costs of acquiring such data by developing predictive models of management feasibility parameterized with social and biophysical factors likely to influence landholders' decisions to engage in management. To test the utility of our best-supported model, we developed 4 alternative investment scenarios based on different input data for conservation planning: social data only; biological data only; potential conservation opportunity derived from modeled feasibility that incurs no social data collection costs; and existing conservation opportunity derived from feasibility data that incurred collection costs. Using spatially explicit information on biodiversity values, feasibility, and management costs, we prioritized locations in southwest Australia to control an invasive predator that is detrimental to both agriculture and natural ecosystems: the red fox (Vulpes vulpes). When social data collection costs were moderate to high, the most cost-effective investment scenario resulted from a predictive model of feasibility. Combining empirical feasibility data with biological data was more cost-effective for prioritizing management when social data collection costs were low (<4% of the total budget). Calls for more data to inform conservation planning should take into account the costs and benefits of collecting and using social data to ensure that limited funding for conservation is spent in the most cost-efficient and effective manner. PMID:25382827

  5. Prognostic and predictive value of YKL-40 in stage IIB-III melanoma.

    PubMed

    Krogh, Merete; Christensen, Ib; Bouwhuis, Marna; Johansen, Julia S; Nørgaard, Peter; Schmidt, Henrik; Hansson, Johan; Suciu, Stefan; Eggermont, Alexander M M; Bastholt, Lars

    2016-08-01

    This study investigates the prognostic and predictive value of YKL-40 in stage IIB-III melanoma patients who were randomized to adjuvant interferon α-2b (IFN) or observation. Serum YKL-40 was determined postoperatively in patients from the Nordic IFN Trial (n=602), EORTC 18952 (n=246), and EORTC 18991 (n=386) (EORTC, European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer). YKL-40 protein expression was determined in 300 tissue sections of primary melanoma or lymph node metastases from 204 Danish patients from the Nordic IFN Trial. Multivariate Cox analysis (including sex, age, stage, ulceration, YKL-40) showed that elevated baseline YKL-40 level was associated with shorter overall survival (OS) in observation groups from the Nordic IFN Trial and EORTC 18952 [hazard ratio (HR)=1.33; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-1.74; P=0.04], but not in the interferon groups (1-year IFN: HR=0.97; 95% CI 0.76-1.25; P=0.83; 2-years IFN: HR=1.06; 95% CI 0.83-1.34; P=0.64). During follow-up, increases in YKL-40 were significantly associated with shorter OS, but not with recurrence-free survival in univariate analysis. YKL-40 expression was stronger in tumor-associated macrophages than melanoma cells in primary melanoma. High YKL-40 expression in macrophages in lymph node metastases was associated with shorter OS in the observation group (HR=2.76; 95% CI: 1.13-6.76, P=0.02), but not in the interferon-treated groups. YKL-40 was an independent prognostic biomarker of OS in melanoma patients stage IIB-III. High serum YKL-40 in poor-prognosis patients may originate from macrophages in the tumor microenvironment and the melanoma cells. Furthermore, we hypothesize that elevated serum YKL-40 after surgery may predict the efficacy of adjuvant IFN treatment. PMID:27076041

  6. The dynamic of nasogastric decompression after esophagectomy and its predictive value of postoperative complications

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Yan; Guo, Jie; You, Bin; Hou, Shengcai; Hu, Bin

    2016-01-01

    from their predictive values respectively according to the former equation (P<0.01), but the data of anastomotic leakage cases had no significance difference (P=0.344). Conclusions It is found that the volume of postoperative nasogastric decompression presents a quadratic trend based on the days after esophagectomy. Gastric conduit reconstruction, smoking history, age and histological type were independent factors affecting on the volume of postoperative nasogastric decompression. Also, the volume of nasogastric decompression has validity and application value for predicting postoperative complications. PMID:26941977

  7. Predictive Value of Endothelial Function by Non-invasive Peripheral Arterial Tonometry for Coronary Artery Disease

    PubMed Central

    Matsuzawa, Yasushi; Li, Jing; Aoki, Tatsuo; Guddeti, Raviteja R.; Kwon, Taek-Geun; Cilluffo, Rebecca; Widmer, R. Jay.; Gulati, Rajiv; Lennon, Ryan J.; Lerman, Lilach O.; Lerman, Amir

    2014-01-01

    Background Endothelial dysfunction is a key step in the initiation and progression of atherosclerosis and subsequent cardiovascular complications. We examined whether peripheral endothelial function, as assessed by fingertip reactive hyperemia-peripheral arterial tonometry (RH-PAT) can provide additional clinical value to traditional risk factors for cardiovascular diseases in predicting coronary artery disease (CAD). Methods We included 118 stable patients who were referred for coronary angiography for chest pain evaluation or abnormal stress test. A natural logarithmic value of RH-PAT index (Ln_RHI) was obtained before cardiac catheterization by an independent operator. Significant CAD was defined as luminal stenosis ≥70% (≥50% at left main) and/or fractional flow reserve ≤0.80 in one or more major coronary arteries or their major branches. Results Levels of Ln_RHI were significantly lower in patients with CAD (n=60) compared to patients without CAD (n=58) (0.69±0.29 vs. 0.88±0.27, p<0.001). Ln_RHI was significantly associated with CAD independent from traditional risk factors (odds ratio [OR] for 0.1 decrease in Ln_RHI 1.25, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04 to 1.52, p=0.01). The net reclassification index was improved when Ln_RHI was added to traditional risk factors (0.62, 95% CI: 0.27 to 0.97, p=0.001). Conclusions Peripheral endothelial function, as assessed by RH-PAT, improved risk stratification when added to traditional risk factors. RH-PAT is potentially useful for identifying patients at high risk for CAD. PMID:25503420

  8. 77 FR 17413 - Notice of Final Determination of Sales at Less Than Fair Value and Negative Critical...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-03-26

    ...We determine that imports of narrow bottom mount combination refrigerator-freezers (bottom mount refrigerators) from the Republic of Korea (Korea) are being, or are likely to be, sold in the United States at less than fair value (LTFV), as provided in section 735 of the Tariff Act of 1930, as amended (the Act). In addition, we determine that there is no reasonable basis to believe or suspect......

  9. Molecular value predictions: associations with beef quality, carcass, production, behavior, and efficiency phenotypes in Brahman cattle.

    PubMed

    Greenwood, P L; Cafe, L M; McIntyre, B L; Geesink, G H; Thompson, J M; Polkinghorne, R; Pethick, D W; Robinson, D L

    2013-12-01

    Data from 2 previously published experiments, New South Wales (NSW; n = 161) and Western Australia (WA; n = 135), were used to test molecular value predictions (MVP), generated from commercially available gene markers, on economically important traits of Bos indicus (Brahman) cattle. Favorable tenderness MVP scores were associated with reduced shear force values of strip loin (LM) steaks aged 7 d from Achilles-hung carcasses (P ≤ 0.06), as well as steaks aged 1 (P ≤ 0.08) or 7 d (P ≤ 0.07) from carcasses hung from the pelvis (tenderstretch). Favorable tenderness MVP scores were also associated with improved consumer tenderness ratings for strip loin steaks aged 7 d and either Achilles hung (P ≤ 0.006) or tenderstretched (P ≤ 0.07). Similar results were observed in NSW for rump (top butt; gluteus medius) steaks, with favorable tenderness MVP scores associated with more tender (P = 0.006) and acceptable (P = 0.008) beef. Favorable marbling MVP scores were associated with improved (P ≤ 0.021) marbling scores and intramuscular fat (IMF) content in the NSW experiment, despite low variation in marbling in the Brahman cattle. For the WA experiment, however, there were no (P ≥ 0.71) relationships between marbling MVP and marbling scores or IMF content. Although residual (net) feed intake (RFI) was not associated (P = 0.63) with the RFI (feed efficiency) MVP, the RFI MVP was adversely associated with LM tenderness and acceptability of 7-d-aged Achilles-hung carcasses in NSW (P ≤ 0.031) and WA (P ≤ 0.037). Some other relationships and trends were noted between the MVP and the other traits, but few reached statistical significance, and none were evident in both experiments. Results from this study provide evidence to support the use of the tenderness MVP. The value of the marbling MVP, which was associated with marbling in only 1 herd, warrants further evaluation; however, there appears to be no evidence to support use of the RFI MVP in Brahman cattle. PMID

  10. Value of cyst localization to predict cystobiliary communication in patients undergoing conservative surgery with hydatid cyst

    PubMed Central

    Alan, Bircan; Kapan, Murat; Teke, Memik; Hattapoğlu, Salih; Arıkanoğlu, Zülfü

    2016-01-01

    Objective The objectives of this study were to investigate the relationship between the segmental localization of liver hydatid cyst by computed tomography (CT) and the presence of cystobiliary communication (CBC) and to identify the risk factors for CBC. Patients and methods One hundred and eleven of 163 patients who underwent liver hydatid surgery between January 2011 and September 2014 were included in this study and analyzed retrospectively. The size, number, stage, and segmental and lobar localization of the cysts were investigated by CT. The presence of CBC and preoperative laboratory findings were recorded from operation notes. Results CBC was more frequent in single large cysts. CBC was most commonly detected in segment 1 (50%), 8 (48.3%), 7 (41.2%), and 4 (40%). CBC was more frequent in the right lobe (40.4%) and Gharbi stage 3 (41.8%) and 4 (55.6%) lesions. There were no differences in CBC according to distance from the hilus. In addition, preoperative total bilirubin, direct bilirubin, alkaline phosphatase (ALP), and gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) elevations were associated with higher CBC frequency (P<0.05). Cyst diameter, number of cysts, and ALP and GGT elevations were independent predictors of CBC presence. Conclusion The evaluation of hydatid cyst diameter, morphological stage, and segmental and lobar localization by abdominal CT and measurement of preoperative cyst diameter, number of cysts, and ALP and GGT values may predict the presence of CBC. PMID:27366078

  11. From 'solution shop' model to 'focused factory' in hospital surgery: increasing care value and predictability.

    PubMed

    Cook, David; Thompson, Jeffrey E; Habermann, Elizabeth B; Visscher, Sue L; Dearani, Joseph A; Roger, Veronique L; Borah, Bijan J

    2014-05-01

    The full-service US hospital has been described organizationally as a "solution shop," in which medical problems are assumed to be unstructured and to require expert physicians to determine each course of care. If universally applied, this model contributes to unwarranted variation in care, which leads to lower quality and higher costs. We purposely disrupted the adult cardiac surgical practice that we led at Mayo Clinic, in Rochester, Minnesota, by creating a "focused factory" model (characterized by a uniform approach to delivering a limited set of high-quality products) within the practice's solution shop. Key elements of implementing the new model were mapping the care process, segmenting the patient population, using information technology to communicate clearly defined expectations, and empowering nonphysician providers at the bedside. Using a set of criteria, we determined that the focused-factory model was appropriate for 67 percent of cardiac surgical patients. We found that implementation of the model reduced resource use, length-of-stay, and cost. Variation was markedly reduced, and outcomes were improved. Assigning patients to different care models increases care value and the predictability of care process, outcomes, and costs while preserving (in a lesser clinical footprint) the strengths of the solution shop. We conclude that creating a focused-factory model within a solution shop, by applying industrial engineering principles and health information technology tools and changing the model of work, is very effective in both improving quality and reducing costs. PMID:24799570

  12. The Value of Conditioning Data for Prediction of Conservative Solute Transport at the Oyster Site, Virginia

    SciTech Connect

    Scheibe, Timothy D.

    2001-12-01

    The large and diverse body of subsurface characterization data generated at a field research site near Oyster, VA provides a unique opportunity to test various approaches for characterizing field-scale heterogeneity in aquifer properties and modeling subsurface flow and transport. We are using observed bromide breakthrough curves (BTCs) from an injection experiment conducted in 1999 as a baseline for evaluating data worth and model effectiveness. BTCs are available at 24 multi-level samplers, eight ports each (192 total sampling points). Each BTC is a time series of measured concentrations, spaced two to twelve hours apart over the seven-day field experiment. A detailed model, implemented using the RAFT code, is used to simulate breakthrough curves at the sampler locations. This model requires the specification of spatial distributions of hydrologic parameters such as hydraulic conductivity. This in turn involves the integration of data of various types and amounts into a conceptual model framework. The number of possible conceptualizations and methods for data integration is nearly limitless, and each gives rise to a different prediction of bromide breakthrough at sampling points. To evaluate the relative appropriateness of each approach, and the value of the data utilized therein, we simulate BTCs at each sampler location and quantitatively compare them to the observed BTCs.

  13. Prognostic and predictive values of long non-coding RNA LINC00472 in breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Shen, Yi; Katsaros, Dionyssios; Loo, Lenora W M; Hernandez, Brenda Y; Chong, Clayton; Canuto, Emilie Marion; Biglia, Nicoletta; Lu, Lingeng; Risch, Harvey; Chu, Wen-Ming; Yu, Herbert

    2015-04-20

    LINC00472 is a novel long intergenic non-coding RNA. We evaluated LINC00472 expression in breast tumor samples using RT-qPCR, performed a meta-analysis of over 20 microarray datasets from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database, and investigated the effect of LINC00472 expression on cell proliferation and migration in breast cancer cells transfected with a LINC00472-expressing vector. Our qPCR results showed that high LINC00472 expression was associated with less aggressive breast tumors and more favorable disease outcomes. Patients with high expression of LINC00472 had significantly reduced risk of relapse and death compared to those with low expression. Patients with high LINC00472 expression also had better responses to adjuvant chemo- or hormonal therapy than did patients with low expression. Results of meta-analysis on multiple studies from the GEO database were in agreement with the findings of our study. High LINC00472 was also associated with favorable molecular subtypes, Luminal A or normal-like tumors. Cell culture experiments showed that up-regulation of LINC00472 expression could suppress breast cancer cell proliferation and migration. Collectively, our clinical and in vitro studies suggest that LINC00472 is a tumor suppressor in breast cancer. Evaluating this long non-coding RNA in breast tumors may have prognostic and predictive value in the clinical management of breast cancer. PMID:25865225

  14. Prognostic and predictive values of long non-coding RNA LINC00472 in breast cancer

    PubMed Central

    Shen, Yi; Katsaros, Dionyssios; Loo, Lenora W. M.; Hernandez, Brenda Y.; Chong, Clayton; Canuto, Emilie Marion; Biglia, Nicoletta; Lu, Lingeng; Risch, Harvey; Chu, Wen-Ming; Yu, Herbert

    2015-01-01

    LINC00472 is a novel long intergenic non-coding RNA. We evaluated LINC00472 expression in breast tumor samples using RT-qPCR, performed a meta-analysis of over 20 microarray datasets from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database, and investigated the effect of LINC00472 expression on cell proliferation and migration in breast cancer cells transfected with a LINC00472-expressing vector. Our qPCR results showed that high LINC00472 expression was associated with less aggressive breast tumors and more favorable disease outcomes. Patients with high expression of LINC00472 had significantly reduced risk of relapse and death compared to those with low expression. Patients with high LINC00472 expression also had better responses to adjuvant chemo- or hormonal therapy than did patients with low expression. Results of meta-analysis on multiple studies from the GEO database were in agreement with the findings of our study. High LINC00472 was also associated with favorable molecular subtypes, Luminal A or normal-like tumors. Cell culture experiments showed that up-regulation of LINC00472 expression could suppress breast cancer cell proliferation and migration. Collectively, our clinical and in vitro studies suggest that LINC00472 is a tumor suppressor in breast cancer. Evaluating this long non-coding RNA in breast tumors may have prognostic and predictive value in the clinical management of breast cancer. PMID:25865225

  15. Evaluation of the positive predictive value of a rapid Immunochromatographic test to detect Campylobacter in stools.

    PubMed

    Floch, Pauline; Goret, Julien; Bessède, Emilie; Lehours, Philippe; Mégraud, Francis

    2012-01-01

    The recently developed rapid immunochromatographic tests (ICT) have the potential to provide a quick and easy diagnosis of Campylobacter enteritis in comparison to culture. In a previous study we found them sensitive but lacking in specificity. The aim of the present study was to focus on the problem of specificity and determine the positive predictive value (PPV) of a positive result of the ImmunoCard Stat! Campy (Meridian Bioscience, Cincinnati, OH, USA). For this purpose, the stools positive by ICT were cultured according to 3 different protocols: Karmali agar, Preston enrichment broth subcultured on Karmali agar, and a filtration method on a blood agar without antibiotics, all incubated for 7 days at 37°C. Out of 609 stools from adults and children with community acquired enteritis, the reference methods detected 25 positive cases (4.1%) (culture: 19, specific PCR and ELISA both positive: 6) and the ICT: 31 including the 25 true positives. The PPV was 80.6%. We conclude that ICT is a good method to screen Campylobacter positive stools but because of its lack of specificity the positive stools must be tested by another method. PMID:23206554

  16. The predictive value of white matter organization in posterior parietal cortex for spatial visualization ability.

    PubMed

    Wolbers, Thomas; Schoell, Eszter D; Büchel, Christian

    2006-09-01

    Humans differ substantially in their ability to imagine spatial transformations of novel stimuli (i.e., mental rotation). Whereas "high-spatial" individuals are able to maintain high-quality representations even after complex mental transformations, "low-spatial" individuals often experience substantial degradation of the initial representation. Even though subdivisions of the posterior parietal cortex are known to instantiate the necessary spatial transformations, a direct demonstration of neuroanatomical differences predicting this behavioral variability is currently missing. Because recent evidence suggests that interindividual differences on the behavioral level might be related to regionally specific white matter organization, we addressed this question using diffusion tensor imaging in combination with well-established psychometric tests. As expected, behavioral results revealed a substantial disparity in mental rotation performance. Most importantly, despite controlling for differences in spatial short-term memory capacity, we observed a tight relationship between mental rotation proficiency and white matter organization near the anterior part of the intraparietal sulcus. Whereas high-level proficiency was paralleled by high fractional anisotropy (FA) values, the opposite pattern was observed in "low spatials". The present results strongly indicate that the efficiency of information transfer between posterior parietal regions involved in the mental transformation process could be one decisive factor in individual spatial visualization proficiency. PMID:16793288

  17. Bullying and cyberbullying: overlapping and predictive value of the co-occurrence.

    PubMed

    del Rey, Rosario; Elipe, Paz; Ortega-Ruiz, Rosario

    2012-11-01

    Several studies show certain co-occurrence of the traditional bullying and the cyberbullying. However, the results about relation and homogeneity among the roles of each of them are not unanimous. The present study intends to advance in the knowledge about the above-mentioned co-occurrence by exploring the dimensions of victimization and traditional aggression and cyber-victimization and cyber-aggression and by identifying its eventual directionality. A short-term longitudinal design was developed. The sample was formed by 274 adolescents, aging 12 to 18 years-old, belonging to 2 schools of Andalusia (South of Spain). In order to value the impact of bullying and cyberbullying the European Cyberbullying Intervention Project Questionnaire (ECIPQ) and the European Bullying Intervention Project Questionnaire (EBIPQ) were used. The results show important simultaneity among both phenomena and suggest that although in cyberbullying -cyber-victimization and cyber-aggression- may be predicted because of previous involvement of the subject in traditional bullying, on the contrary it does not happen. In addition, previous victimization is a risk factor for traditional bullying and for cyberbullying. Results are discussed in relation to the process and socio-group dynamics arising from the bullying and cyberbullying phenomena, and in terms of their prevention. PMID:23079359

  18. Clinical value and severity of myocardial perfusion defects in asymptomatic diabetic patients with negative or weakly positive exercise treadmill test

    PubMed Central

    Zakavi, Seyed Rasoul; Taherpour, Mehdi; Moossavi, Zohreh; Sadeghi, Ramin; Kakhki, Vahidreza Dabbagh; Rokni, Haleh

    2013-01-01

    Objective: Although coronary artery disease (CAD) is the leading cause of death in type 2 diabetic patients, it is frequently asymptomatic. Myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) is reported to show ischemia in a significant number of asymptomatic diabetic patients. We studied the prevalence and severity of myocardial perfusion defects in asymptomatic diabetic patients and its clinical impact. Methods and patients: One hundred thirty consecutive asymptomatic patients, aged 35-65 years with type 2 diabetes mellitus and with no history of CAD and no cardiac symptoms were recruited in the study. Echocardiography, electrocardiography (ECG), routine laboratory tests and exercise treadmill test (ETT) were performed and patients with weakly positive or negative ETT underwent Dipyridamole MPI. Patients with positive ETT were referred to coronary angiography. Patients were followed for at least 17 months (mean 21.7 months) and any cardiac event was recorded. Results: We studied 81 female and 49 male patients with mean age of 51.8 years. Negative, weakly positive and positive ETT result was noted in 74.3%, 15% and 10.7% respectively. 75% of patients with positive ETT had coronary artery disease in angiography. Gated myocardial perfusion SPECT was done in 106 patients. MPI showed reversible defect in 26.9% of the patients with a mean summed stress score of 3.3±1.8. Follow up completed in 112 patients and only one patient with abnormal MPI underwent coronary angiography followed by PTCA. No cardiac death, MI, UA or hospital admission occurred among our patients during follow up (17-26 months). Mean stress end diastolic volume (EDV) was significantly higher in patients with reversible defect compared to patients without reversible defect based on MPI findings (62.0±31.6 Vs 48.5±18.4 ml, P=0.04). Blood glucose and HbA1c were significantly higher in patients with ischemia compared to patients without ischemia (P<0.05). Meanwhile the ratio of TG to HDL was 6.06±3.2 in ischemic

  19. Negative Ion Photoelectron Spectroscopy Confirms the Prediction that D-3h Carbontrioxide (CO3) Has a Singlet Ground State

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Hrovat, David; Hou, Gao-Lei; Chen, Bo; Wang, Xue B.; Borden, Weston

    2015-11-13

    The CO3 radical anion (CO3•–) has been formed by electrospraying carbonate dianion (CO32–) into the gas phase. The negative ion photoelectron (NIPE) spectrum of CO3•– shows that, unlike trimethylenemethane [C(CH2)3], carbontrioxide (CO3) has a singlet ground state. From the NIPE spectrum, the electron affinity of CO3 was determined to be EA = 4.06 ± 0.03 eV, and the singlet-triplet energy difference was found to be ΔEST = - 17.8 ± 0.9 kcal/mol. B3LYP, CCSD(T), and CASPT2 calculations all find that the two lowest triplet states of CO3 are very close in energy, a prediction that is confirmed by the relativemore » intensities of the bands in the NIPE spectrum of CO3•–. The 560 cm-1 vibrational progression, seen in the low energy region of the triplet band, enables the identification of the lowest, Jahn-Teller-distorted, triplet state as 3A1, in which both unpaired electrons reside in σ MOs, rather than 3A2, in which one unpaired electron occupies the b2 σ MO, and the other occupies the b1 π MO.« less

  20. Incremental predictive value of natriuretic peptides for prognosis in the chronic stable heart failure population: a systematic review.

    PubMed

    Don-Wauchope, Andrew C; Santaguida, Pasqualina L; Oremus, Mark; McKelvie, Robert; Ali, Usman; Brown, Judy A; Bustamam, Amy; Sohel, Nazmul; Hill, Stephen A; Booth, Ronald A; Balion, Cynthia; Raina, Parminder

    2014-08-01

    The aim of this study was to determine whether measurement of natriuretic peptides independently adds incremental predictive value for mortality and morbidity in patients with chronic stable heart failure (CSHF). We electronically searched Medline®, Embase™, AMED, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and CINAHL from 1989 to June 2012. We also searched reference lists of included articles, systematic reviews, and the gray literature. Studies were screened for eligibility criteria and assessed for methodological quality. Data were extracted on study design, population demographics, assay cutpoints, prognostic risk prediction model covariates, statistical methods, outcomes, and results. One hundred and eighty-three studies were identified as prognostic in the systematic review. From these, 15 studies (all NT-proBNP) considered incremental predictive value in CSHF subjects. Follow-up varied from 12 to 37 months. All studies presented at least one estimate of incremental predictive value of NT-proBNP relative to the base prognostic model. Using discrimination or likelihood statistics, these studies consistently showed that NT-proBNP increased model performance. Three studies used re-classification and model validation computations to establish incremental predictive value; these studies showed less consistency with respect to added value. Although there were differences in the base risk prediction models, assay cutpoints, and lengths of follow-up, there was consistency in NT-proBNP adding incremental predictive value for prognostic models in chronic stable CSHF patients. The limitations in the literature suggest that studies designed to evaluate prognostic models should be undertaken to evaluate the incremental value of natriuretic peptide as a predictor of mortality and morbidity in CSHF. PMID:25120174

  1. Negative δ 18O values in Allan Hills 84001 carbonate: Possible evidence for water precipitation on mars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holland, G.; Saxton, J. M.; Lyon, I. C.; Turner, G.

    2005-03-01

    The Martian meteorite ALH84001 contains ˜1% by weight of carbonate formed by secondary processes on the Martian surface or in the shallow subsurface. The major form of this carbonate is chemically and isotopically zoned rosettes which have been well documented elsewhere. This study concentrates upon carbonate regions ˜200 μm across which possess previously unobserved magnesium rich inner cores, interpreted here as rosette fragments, surrounded by a later stage cement containing rare Ca-rich carbonates (up to Ca 81Mg 07Fe 04Mn 07) intimately associated with feldspar. High spatial resolution ion probe analyses of Ca-rich carbonate surrounding rosette fragments have δ 18O V-SMOW values as low as -10 ‰. These values are not compatible with deposition from a global Martian atmosphere invoked to explain ALH84001 rosettes. The range of δ 18O values are also incompatible with a fluid that has equilibrated with the Martian crust at high temperature or from remobilisation of carbonate of rosette isotopic composition. At Martian atmospheric temperatures, the small CO 2(gas)-CO 2(ice) fractionation makes meteoric CO 2 an unlikely source for -10 ‰ carbonates. In contrast, closed system Rayleigh fractionation of H 2O can generate δ 18O H2O -30 ‰, as observed at high latitudes on Earth. We suggest that atmospheric transport and precipitation of H 2O in a similar fashion to that on Earth provides a source of suitably 18O depleted water for generation of carbonate with δ 18O V-SMOW = -10 ‰.

  2. The predictive value of multiple electrode platelet aggregometry for postoperative bleeding complications in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery

    PubMed Central

    Woźniak, Karolina; Hryniewiecki, Tomasz; Kruk, Mariusz; Różański, Jacek; Kuśmierczyk, Mariusz

    2016-01-01

    Bleeding Academic Research Consortium’ (‘Circulation’, 2011) for BARC type 4 bleeding (i.e. CABG-related bleeding). Results An ROC curve was constructed for the ASPI test and ADP test for a total of 200 patients. No significant correlations were demonstrated between the ASPI test results and either the primary endpoint or the secondary endpoints. A correlation was found between the ADP test results and the composite primary endpoint and each of the secondary endpoints. The primary endpoint of major postoperative bleeding occurred in 16 subjects. From the ROC curve, we established the optimal cut-off value for the ADP test of 26 U at sensitivity of 72%, specificity of 69%, positive predictive value of 69.90%, and negative predictive value of 71.13%. Conclusions In patients on antiplatelet therapy, an ADP test result of < 26 U is strongly predictive of serious bleeding complications after CABG surgery. The MEA ADP test allows to identify the group of patients at an increased risk of postoperative bleeding. PMID:27212971

  3. The properties of the Poisson's ratio of microcellular foams with low porosity: non-stationary, negative value, and singularity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, J. K.; Zhu, J.; Wang, J.; Yuan, M.; Chu, H. J.

    2006-12-01

    The properties of the Poisson’s ratio of microcellular foams with an internal pressure in the voids and low porosity are investigated. Of prime interest is the effect of the matrix creep on the deformation of the foam and how this effect influences the later deformation characteristics of the material in terms of a Poisson description. First, the definitions of Poisson’s ratio for the microcellular foams under uniaxial stress are reviewed. Second, the deformation of the microvoids under the influence of the internal pressure is analyzed by means of Eshelby’s equivalent inclusion method. Next, the formula of the macroscopic strain of the microcellular foams is derived by using Mori-Tanaka’s scheme, and based on this formula, the expression of the Poisson’s ratio of the material is obtained. Further, the calculation of the Poisson’s ratio of the material is then carried out. Numerical results show that the Poisson’s ratio of the microcellular foams is a time-dependent parameter. It is also discussed that because of the effect of the internal pressure in the voids, the global Poisson’s ratio may be negative. Under the action of remote compressive load, the Poisson’s ratio of the microcellular foams may be unbounded. Finally, the effects of the loading rate, the Poisson’s ratio and the relaxation time of the polymeric matrix material, the porosity, and the pressure in the microvoids on the Poisson’s ratio are discussed with the aid of numerical estimates. These analytical results indicate that the Poisson’s ratio under uniaxial tension is different from that under uniaxial compression.

  4. Nomograms for predicting prognostic value of inflammatory biomarkers in colorectal cancer patients after radical resection.

    PubMed

    Li, Yaqi; Jia, Huixun; Yu, Wencheng; Xu, Ye; Li, Xinxiang; Li, Qingguo; Cai, Sanjun

    2016-07-01

    Increasing evidence indicates that inflammation plays a vital role in tumorigenesis and progression. However, the prognostic value of inflammatory biomarkers in colorectal cancer (CRC) has not been established. In this study, a retrospective analysis was conducted in patients with CRC in Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center (FUSCC) between April 1, 2007 and April 30, 2014, and 5,336 patients were identified eligible. Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR), and albumin/globulin ratio (AGR) were analyzed. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to calculate the 5-year overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS). Cox regression analysis was performed to assess the prognostic factors. Nomograms were established to predict OS and DFS, and Harrell's concordance index (c-index) was adopted to evaluate prediction accuracy. As results, the 5-year OS was 79.2% and the 5-year DFS was 56.0% in the cohort. Patients were stratified into 2 groups by NLR (≤2.72 and >2.72), PLR (≤219.00 and >219.00), LMR (≤2.83 and >2.83) and AGR (<1.50 and ≥1.50). Patients with NLR > 2.72, PLR > 219.00, LMR ≤ 2.83 and AGR < 1.50 were significantly associated with decreased OS and DFS (p < 0.001). Multivariate analysis indicated that NLR, LMR and AGR were independent factors of OS (p = 0.047, p = 0.008 and p < 0.001, respectively) and DFS (p = 0.009, p < 0.001 and p = 0.008, respectively). In addition, nomograms on OS and DFS were established according to all significant factors, and c-indexes were 0.765 (95% CI: 0.744-0.785) and 0.735 (95% CI: 0.721-0.749), respectively. Nomograms based on OS and DFS can be recommended as practical models to evaluate prognosis for CRC patients. PMID:26933932

  5. Positive Predictive Value of True Bacteremia according to the Number of Positive Culture Sets in Adult Patients

    PubMed Central

    Kitaura, Tsuyoshi; Chikumi, Hiroki; Fujiwara, Hiromitsu; Okada, Kensaku; Hayabuchi, Tatsuya; Nakamoto, Masaki; Takata, Miyako; Yamasaki, Akira; Igishi, Tadashi; Burioka, Naoto; Shimizu, Eiji

    2014-01-01

    Background Performing multiple blood culture sets simultaneously is a standard blood culture methodology, although it is often difficult to distinguish true bacteremia from contamination when only one of several blood culture sets is positive. This study clarified the relationship between the number of positive blood culture sets and clinical significance in patients with positive blood culture. Methods Patients aged 18 years and over with at least 1 positive blood culture were enrolled. Positive blood culture episodes were categorized from clinical records as true bacteremia, contamination, or unknown clinical significance. The associations among episodes of true bacteremia, isolated bacteria, the number of positive blood culture sets from among the performed sets, and the clinical background of patients were analyzed. Results Among a total of 407 episodes, 262, 67 and 78 were true bacteremia, contamination and unknown clinical significance, respectively. The positive predictive values (PPVs) of 1 out of 1, 1 out of 2 and 2 out of 2 positive sets in cases of Staphylococcus aureus, were 81.3%, 50% and 100% respectively; those in cases of coagulase-negative Staphylococci were 20.5%, 10.8% and 63.5%, respectively. Almost all cases of Escherichia coli, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Klebsiella species and Candida species were true bacteremia. The probability of true bacteremia was strongly associated with recent surgery in multivariate analysis (P < 0.05). Conclusion The probability of true bacteremia based on the number of positive culture sets from among the performed sets varies by microorganism. Therefore, PPVs calculated using this method may help physicians distinguish true bacteremia from contamination. PMID:25901103

  6. Identifying bereaved subjects at risk of complicated grief: Predictive value of questionnaire items in a cohort study

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Bereavement is a condition which most people experience several times during their lives. A small but noteworthy proportion of bereaved individuals experience a syndrome of prolonged psychological distress in relation to bereavement. The aim of the study was to develop a clinical tool to identify bereaved individuals who had a prognosis of complicated grief and to propose a model for a screening tool to identify those at risk of complicated grief applicable among bereaved patients in general practice and palliative care. Methods We examined the responses of 276 newly bereaved individuals to a variety of standardised and ad hoc questionnaire items eight weeks post loss. Inventory of Complicated Grief (ICG-R) was used as a gold standard of distress at six months after bereavement. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves analysis was performed for all scales and items regarding ICG-R score. Sensitivity, specificity and area under curve (AUC) were calculated for scales and items with the most promising ROC curve analyses. Results Beck's Depression Inventory (BDI) was the scale with the highest AUC (0.83) and adding a single item question ('Even while my relative was dying, I felt a sense of purpose in my life') gave a sensitivity of 80% and specificity of 75%. The positive/negative predictive values for this combination of questions were 70% and 85%, respectively. With this screening tool bereaved people could be categorized into three groups where group 1 had 7%, group 2 had 23% and group 3 had 64% propensity of suffering from complicated grief six months post loss. Conclusions This study shows that the BDI in combination with a single item question eight weeks post loss may be used for clinical screening for risk of developing complicated grief after six months. The feasibility and clinical implications of the screening tool has to be tested in a clinical setting. PMID:21575239

  7. Predicting pathogen risks to aid beach management: the real value of quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA).

    PubMed

    Ashbolt, Nicholas J; Schoen, Mary E; Soller, Jeffrey A; Roser, David J

    2010-09-01

    There has been an ongoing dilemma for agencies that set criteria for safe recreational waters in how to provide for a seasonal assessment of a beach site versus guidance for day-to-day management. Typically an overall 'safe' criterion level is derived from epidemiologic studies of sewage-impacted beaches. The decision criterion is based on a percentile value for a single sample or a moving median of a limited number (e.g. five per month) of routine samples, which are reported at least the day after recreator exposure has occurred. The focus of this paper is how to better undertake day-to-day recreational site monitoring and management. Internationally, good examples exist where predictive empirical regression models (based on rainfall, wind speed/direction, etc.) may provide an estimate of the target faecal indicator density for the day of exposure. However, at recreational swimming sites largely impacted by non-sewage sources of faecal indicators, there is concern that the indicator-illness associations derived from studies at sewage-impacted beaches may be inappropriate. Furthermore, some recent epidemiologic evidence supports the relationship to gastrointestinal (GI) illness with qPCR-derived measures of Bacteroidales/Bacteroides spp. as well as more traditional faecal indicators, but we understand less about the environmental fate of these molecular targets and their relationship to bather risk. Modelling pathogens and indicators within a quantitative microbial risk assessment framework is suggested as a way to explore the large diversity of scenarios for faecal contamination and hydrologic events, such as from waterfowl, agricultural animals, resuspended sediments and from the bathers themselves. Examples are provided that suggest that more site-specific targets derived by QMRA could provide insight, directly translatable to management actions. PMID:20638095

  8. A Global Overview of Short-Term Foreshocks and Their Predictive Value

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papadopoulos, G. A.; Avlonitis, M.; Di Fiore, B.; Minadakis, G.

    2014-12-01

    Foreshocks preceding mainshocks in the short-term, ranging from minutes to a few months prior the mainshock, have been known from several decades ago. Understanding the generation mechanisms of foreshocks was supported by seismicity observations and statistics, laboratory experiments, theoretical considerations and simulation results. However, important issues remain open. For example, (1) Why only some mainshocks are preceded by foreshocks and not others? (2) Is the mainshock size dependent on some attributes of the foreshock sequence? (3) Is that possible to discriminate foreshocks from other seismicity styles (e.g. swarms)? To approach possible replies to these issues we reviewed about 400 papers, reports, books and other documents referring to foreshocks as well as to relevant laboratory experiments. We found that the ratio of mainshocks preceded by foreshocks increases with the increase of monitoring capabilities and that foreshock activity is dependent on source mechanical properties and favoured by material heterogeneity. Also, the mainshock size does not depend on the largest foreshock size but rather by the foreshock area. Seismicity statistics may account for an effective discrimination of foreshocks from other seismicity styles. Our literature survey showed that only the last years the seismicity catalogs organized in some well monitored areas are adequately complete to search foreshock activities. Therefore, we investigated for a set of "positive foreshock examples" covering a wide range of mainshock magnitudes from 4.5 to 9 in Japan, S. California, Italy and Greece. The positive examples used indicate that foreshocks bear important value not only for the mainshock prediction but also for the operational discrimination between different styles of activity such as background seismicity, swarms, foreshocks, aftershocks.

  9. A Rabbit Langendorff Heart Proarrhythmia Model: Predictive Value for Clinical Identification of Torsades de Pointes

    PubMed Central

    Lawrence, C L; Bridgland-Taylor, M H; Pollard, C E; Hammond, T G; Valentin, J-P

    2006-01-01

    Background and purpose: The rabbit isolated Langendorff heart model (SCREENIT) was used to investigate the proarrhythmic potential of a range of marketed drugs or drugs intended for market. These data were used to validate the SCREENIT model against clinical outcomes. Experimental approach: Fifty-five drugs, 3 replicates and 2 controls were tested in a blinded manner. Proarrhythmia variables included a 10% change in MAPD60, triangulation, instability and reverse frequency-dependence of the MAP. Early after-depolarisations, ventricular tachycardia, TdP and ventricular fibrillation were noted. Data are reported at nominal concentrations relative to EFTPCmax. Proarrhythmic scores were assigned to each drug and each drug category. Key results: Category 1 and 2 drugs have the highest number of proarrhythmia variables and overt proarrhythmia while Category 5 drugs have the lowest, at every margin. At 30-fold the EFTPCmax, the mean proarrhythmic scores are: Category 1, 101±24; Category 2, 101±14; Category 3, 72±20; Category 4, 59±16 and Category 5, 22±9 points. Only drugs in Category 5 have mean proarrhythmic scores, below 30-fold, that remain within the Safety Zone. Conclusions and Implications: A 30-fold margin between effects and EFTPCmax is sufficiently stringent to provide confidence to proceed with a new chemical entity, without incurring the risk of eliminating potentially beneficial drugs. The model is particularly useful where compounds have small margins between the hERG IC50 and predicted EFTPCmax. These data suggest this is a robust and reliable assay that can add value to an integrated QT/TdP risk assessment. PMID:17031389

  10. How long the singular value decomposed entropy predicts the stock market? - Evidence from the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gu, Rongbao; Shao, Yanmin

    2016-07-01

    In this paper, a new concept of multi-scales singular value decomposition entropy based on DCCA cross correlation analysis is proposed and its predictive power for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is studied. Using Granger causality analysis with different time scales, it is found that, the singular value decomposition entropy has predictive power for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index for period less than one month, but not for more than one month. This shows how long the singular value decomposition entropy predicts the stock market that extends Caraiani's result obtained in Caraiani (2014). On the other hand, the result also shows an essential characteristic of stock market as a chaotic dynamic system.

  11. Transforming growth factor-β, insulin-like growth factor I/insulin-like growth factor I receptor and vascular endothelial growth factor-A: Prognostic and predictive markers in triple-negative and non-triple-negative breast cancer

    PubMed Central

    BAHHNASSY, ABEER; MOHANAD, MARWA; SHAARAWY, SABRY; ISMAIL, MANAL F.; EL-BASTAWISY, AHMED; ASHMAWY, ABEER M.; ZEKRI, ABDEL-RAHMAN

    2015-01-01

    In the current study, the prognostic and predictive values of serum transforming growth factor-β1 (TGF-β1), insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I)/IGF-I receptor (IGF-IR) and vascular endothelial growth factor-A (VEGF-A) were evaluated in triple-negative and non-triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC and non-TNBC). The aim was to identify a group of serological biomarkers and to identify possible candidates for targeted therapy in patients with TNBC and non-TNBC. Protein levels of TGF-β1, IGF-I/IGF-IR and VEGF-A in the serum were measured in 43 TNBC, 53 non-TNBC and 20 normal control participants using quantitative ELISA assays. Results were correlated against standard prognostic factors, response to treatment and survival. TNBC was identified to be associated with poor prognosis and serum levels of VEGF-A and IGF/IGF-IR were significantly higher in the TNBC group compared with the non-TNBC group. IGF-IR and VEGF-A overexpression was observed to be correlated with TGF-β1 expression and all of the markers investigated were associated with metastasis and disease progression. In the multivariate analysis, VEGF-A, IGF-I and IGF-IR were observed to be independent predictors for overall survival, whereas TGF-β1 and lymph node status were identified as independent predictors for disease-free survival. The overall response rate was significantly lower in patients with TNBC and those with high levels of TGF-β1, IGF-I/IGF-IR and VEGF-A. In view of the present results, it was concluded that TGF-β1, IGF-I/IGF-IR and VEGF-A overexpression is associated with the presence of aggressive tumors, which exhibit an increased probability of metastasis, a poor response to treatment and reduced survival rate. This indicates that VEGF-A, IGF-IR and IGF-I have the potential to be used as surrogate biomarkers and are promising candidates for targeted therapy, particularly in patients with TNBC. PMID:25824321

  12. A surge of p-values between 0.041 and 0.049 in recent decades (but negative results are increasing rapidly too)

    PubMed Central

    Dodou, Dimitra

    2015-01-01

    It is known that statistically significant (positive) results are more likely to be published than non-significant (negative) results. However, it has been unclear whether any increasing prevalence of positive results is stronger in the “softer” disciplines (social sciences) than in the “harder” disciplines (physical sciences), and whether the prevalence of negative results is decreasing over time. Using Scopus, we searched the abstracts of papers published between 1990 and 2013, and measured longitudinal trends of multiple expressions of positive versus negative results, including p-values between 0.041 and 0.049 versus p-values between 0.051 and 0.059, textual reporting of “significant difference” versus “no significant difference,” and the reporting of p < 0.05 versus p > 0.05. We found no support for a “hierarchy of sciences” with physical sciences at the top and social sciences at the bottom. However, we found large differences in reporting practices between disciplines, with p-values between 0.041 and 0.049 over 1990–2013 being 65.7 times more prevalent in the biological sciences than in the physical sciences. The p-values near the significance threshold of 0.05 on either side have both increased but with those p-values between 0.041 and 0.049 having increased to a greater extent (2013-to-1990 ratio of the percentage of papers = 10.3) than those between 0.051 and 0.059 (ratio = 3.6). Contradictorily, p < 0.05 has increased more slowly than p > 0.05 (ratios = 1.4 and 4.8, respectively), while the use of “significant difference” has shown only a modest increase compared to “no significant difference” (ratios = 1.5 and 1.1, respectively). We also compared reporting of significance in the United States, Asia, and Europe and found that the results are too inconsistent to draw conclusions on cross-cultural differences in significance reporting. We argue that the observed longitudinal trends are caused by negative factors, such as an

  13. Clinical value of CT-based preoperative software assisted lung lobe volumetry for predicting postoperative pulmonary function after lung surgery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wormanns, Dag; Beyer, Florian; Hoffknecht, Petra; Dicken, Volker; Kuhnigk, Jan-Martin; Lange, Tobias; Thomas, Michael; Heindel, Walter

    2005-04-01

    This study was aimed to evaluate a morphology-based approach for prediction of postoperative forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) after lung resection from preoperative CT scans. Fifteen Patients with surgically treated (lobectomy or pneumonectomy) bronchogenic carcinoma were enrolled in the study. A preoperative chest CT and pulmonary function tests before and after surgery were performed. CT scans were analyzed by prototype software: automated segmentation and volumetry of lung lobes was performed with minimal user interaction. Determined volumes of different lung lobes were used to predict postoperative FEV1 as percentage of the preoperative values. Predicted FEV1 values were compared to the observed postoperative values as standard of reference. Patients underwent lobectomy in twelve cases (6 upper lobes; 1 middle lobe; 5 lower lobes; 6 right side; 6 left side) and pneumonectomy in three cases. Automated calculation of predicted postoperative lung function was successful in all cases. Predicted FEV1 ranged from 54% to 95% (mean 75% +/- 11%) of the preoperative values. Two cases with obviously erroneous LFT were excluded from analysis. Mean error of predicted FEV1 was 20 +/- 160 ml, indicating absence of systematic error; mean absolute error was 7.4 +/- 3.3% respective 137 +/- 77 ml/s. The 200 ml reproducibility criterion for FEV1 was met in 11 of 13 cases (85%). In conclusion, software-assisted prediction of postoperative lung function yielded a clinically acceptable agreement with the observed postoperative values. This method might add useful information for evaluation of functional operability of patients with lung cancer.

  14. Predicting missing expression values in gene regulatory networks using a discrete logic modeling optimization guided by network stable states

    PubMed Central

    Crespo, Isaac; Krishna, Abhimanyu; Le Béchec, Antony; del Sol, Antonio

    2013-01-01

    The development of new high-throughput technologies enables us to measure genome-wide transcription levels, protein abundance, metabolite concentration, etc. Nevertheless, these experimental data are often noisy and incomplete, which hinders data analysis, modeling and prediction. Here, we propose a method to predict expression values of genes involved in stable cellular phenotypes from the expression values of the remaining genes in a literature-based gene regulatory network. The consistency between predicted and known stable states from experimental data is used to guide an iterative network pruning that contextualizes the network to the biological conditions under which the expression data were obtained. Using the contextualized network and the property of network stability we predict gene expression values missing from experimental data. The prediction method assumes a Boolean model to compute steady states of networks and an evolutionary algorithm to iteratively prune the networks. The evolutionary algorithm samples the probability distribution of positive feedback loops or positive circuits and individual interactions within the subpopulation of the best-pruned networks at each iteration. The resulting expression inference is based not only on previous knowledge about local connectivity but also on a global network property (stability), providing robustness in the predictions. PMID:22941654

  15. Sun Series program for the REEDA System. [predicting orbital lifetime using sunspot values

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shankle, R. W.

    1980-01-01

    Modifications made to data bases and to four programs in a series of computer programs (Sun Series) which run on the REEDA HP minicomputer system to aid NASA's solar activity predictions used in orbital life time predictions are described. These programs utilize various mathematical smoothing technique and perform statistical and graphical analysis of various solar activity data bases residing on the REEDA System.

  16. The weather roulette: assessing the economic value of seasonal wind speed predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Christel, Isadora; Cortesi, Nicola; Torralba-Fernandez, Veronica; Soret, Albert; Gonzalez-Reviriego, Nube; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco

    2016-04-01

    Climate prediction is an emerging and highly innovative research area. For the wind energy sector, predicting the future variability of wind resources over the coming weeks or seasons is especially relevant to quantify operation and maintenance logistic costs or to inform energy trading decision with potential cost savings and/or economic benefits. Recent advances in climate predictions have already shown that probabilistic forecasting can improve the current prediction practices, which are based in the use of retrospective climatology and the assumption that what happened in the past is the best estimation of future conditions. Energy decision makers now have this new set of climate services but, are they willing to use them? Our aim is to properly explain the potential economic benefits of adopting probabilistic predictions, compared with the current practice, by using the weather roulette methodology (Hagedorn & Smith, 2009). This methodology is a diagnostic tool created to inform in a more intuitive and relevant way about the skill and usefulness of a forecast in the decision making process, by providing an economic and financial oriented assessment of the benefits of using a particular forecast system. We have selected a region relevant to the energy stakeholders where the predictions of the EUPORIAS climate service prototype for the energy sector (RESILIENCE) are skillful. In this region, we have applied the weather roulette to compare the overall prediction success of RESILIENCE's predictions and climatology illustrating it as an effective interest rate, an economic term that is easier to understand for energy stakeholders.

  17. Resources Predicting Positive and Negative Affect during the Experience of Stress: A Study of Older Asian Indian Immigrants in the United States.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Diwan, Sadhna; Jonnalagadda, Satya S.; Balaswamy, Shantha

    2004-01-01

    Purpose: Using the life stress model of psychological well-being, in this study we examined risks and resources predicting the occurrence of both positive and negative affect among older Asian Indian immigrants who experienced stressful life events. Design and Methods: We collected data through a telephone survey of 226 respondents (aged 50 years…

  18. Relationship between obesity, negative affect and basal heart rate in predicting heart rate reactivity to psychological stress among adolescents

    PubMed Central

    Park, Andres E.; Huynh, Pauline; Schell, Anne M.; Baker, Laura A.

    2015-01-01

    Reduced cardiovascular responses to psychological stressors have been found to be associated with both obesity and negative affect in adults, but have been less well studied in children and adolescent populations. These findings have most often been interpreted as reflecting reduced sympathetic nervous system response, perhaps associated with heightened baseline sympathetic activation among the obese and those manifesting negative affect. However, obesity and negative affect may themselves be correlated, raising the question of whether they both independently affect cardiovascular reactivity. The present study thus examined the separate effects of obesity and negative affect on both cardiovascular and skin conductance responses to stress (e.g., during a serial subtraction math task) in adolescents, while controlling for baseline levels of autonomic activity during rest. Both obesity and negative affect had independent and negative associations with cardiovascular reactivity, such that reduced stress responses were apparent for obese adolescents and those with high levels of negative affect. In contrast, neither obesity nor negative affect was related to skin conductance responses to stress, implicating specifically noradrenergic mechanisms rather than sympathetic mechanisms generally as being deficient. Moreover, baseline heart rate was unrelated to obesity in this sample, which suggests that heightened baseline of sympathetic activity is not necessary for the reduced cardiovascular reactivity to stress. PMID:26049136

  19. The value of streamflow data in improving TSS predictions - Bayesian multi-objective calibration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sikorska, A. E.; Del Giudice, D.; Banasik, K.; Rieckermann, J.

    2015-11-01

    The concentration of total suspended solids (TSS) in surface waters is a commonly used indicator of water quality impairments. Its accurate prediction remains, however, problematic because: (i) TSS build-up, erosion, and wash-off are not easily identifiable; (ii) calibrating a TSS model requires observations of sediment loads, which are rare, and streamflow observations to calculate concentrations; and (iii) predicted TSS usually deviate systematically from observations, an effect which is commonly neglected. Ignoring systematic errors during calibration can lead to overconfident (i.e. unreliable) uncertainty estimates during predictions. In this paper, we therefore investigate whether a statistical description of systematic model errors makes it possible to generate reliable predictions for TSS. In addition, we explore how the reliability of TSS predictions increases when streamflow data are additionally used in model calibration. A key aspect of our study is that we use a Bayesian multi-output calibration and a novel autoregressive error model, which describes the model predictive error as a sum of independent random noise and autocorrelated bias. Our results show that using a statistical description of model bias provides more reliable uncertainty estimates of TSS than before and including streamflow data into calibration makes TSS predictions more precise. For a case study of a small ungauged catchment, this improvement was as much as 15%. Our approach can be easily implemented for other water quality variables which are dependent on streamflow.

  20. Quantitation of Pretreatment Serum IP-10 Improves the Predictive Value of an IL28B Gene Polymorphism for Hepatitis C Treatment Response

    PubMed Central

    Darling, Jama M.; Aerssens, Jeroen; Fanning, Gregory; McHutchison, John G.; Goldstein, David B.; Thompson, Alexander J.; Shianna, Kevin V.; Afdhal, Nezam H.; Hudson, Michael L.; Howell, Charles D.; Talloen, Willem; Bollekens, Jacques; De Wit, Mieke; Scholliers, Annick; Fried, Michael W.

    2011-01-01

    Polymorphisms of IL28B gene are highly associated with sustained virological response (SVR) in patients with chronic hepatitis C treated with peginterferon and ribavirin. Quantitation of Interferon-γ Inducible Protein-10 (IP-10) may also differentiate antiviral response. We evaluated IP-10 levels in pretreatment serum from 115 non-responders and 157 sustained responders in the VIRAHEP-C cohort, including African Americans (AA) and Caucasian Americans (CA). Mean IP-10 was lower in sustained responders compared to non-responders (460 ± 37 pg/ml vs 697 ± 49 pg/ml, p<0.001), both in AA and CA. The positive predictive value of low IP-10 levels (<600 pg/ml) for SVR was 69% while the negative predictive value of high IP-10 levels (>600 pg/ml) was 67%. We assessed the combination of pretreatment IP-10 levels with IL28B genotype as predictors of treatment response. The IL28B polymorphism rs12979860 was tested in 210 participants. CC, CT, or TT genotypes were found in 30%, 49%, and 21%, respectively, with corresponding SVR rates of 87%, 50%, and 39% (p<0.0001). Serum IP-10 levels within the IL28B genotype groups provided additional information regarding the likelihood of SVR (p< 0.0001). CT carriers with low IP-10 had 64% SVR versus 24% with high IP-10. Similarly, a higher SVR rate was identified for TT and CC carriers with low versus high IP-10 (TT: 48% versus 20%, CC: 89% versus 79%). IL28B genotype and baseline IP-10 levels were additive but independent when predicting SVR in both AA and CA. Conclusions When IL28B genotype is combined with pretreatment serum IP-10 measurement, the predictive value for discrimination between SVR and non-response is significantly improved, especially in non-CC genotypes. This relationship warrants further investigation to elucidate mechanisms of antiviral response and prospective validation. PMID:21254158

  1. Do experiences of racial discrimination predict cardiovascular disease among African American Men? The moderating role of internalized negative racial group attitudes

    PubMed Central

    Lincoln, Karen D; Adler, Nancy E; Syme, S. Leonard

    2010-01-01

    Studies examining associations between racial discrimination and cardiovascular health outcomes have been inconsistent, with some studies finding the highest risk of hypertension among African Americans who report no discrimination. A potential explanation of the latter is that hypertension and other cardiovascular problems are fostered by internalization and denial of racial discrimination. To explore this hypothesis, the current study examines the role of internalized negative racial group attitudes in linking experiences of racial discrimination and history of cardiovascular disease among African American men. We predicted a significant interaction between reported discrimination and internalized negative racial group attitudes in predicting cardiovascular disease. Weighted logistic regression analyses were conducted among 1216 African American men from the National Survey of American Life (NSAL; 2001– 2003). We found no main effect of racial discrimination in predicting history of cardiovascular disease. However, agreeing with negative beliefs about Blacks was positively associated with cardiovascular disease history, and also moderated the effect of racial discrimination. Reporting racial discrimination was associated with higher risk of cardiovascular disease among African American men who disagreed with negative beliefs about Blacks. However, among African American men who endorsed negative beliefs about Blacks, the risk of cardiovascular disease was greatest among those reporting no discrimination. Findings suggest that racial discrimination and the internalization of negative racial group attitudes are both risk factors for cardiovascular disease among African American men. Furthermore, the combination of internalizing negative beliefs about Blacks and the absence of reported racial discrimination appear to be associated with particularly poor cardiovascular health. Steps to address racial discrimination as well as programs aimed at developing a positive

  2. High Throughput pharmacokinetic modeling using computationally predicted parameter values: dissociation constants (TDS)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Estimates of the ionization association and dissociation constant (pKa) are vital to modeling the pharmacokinetic behavior of chemicals in vivo. Methodologies for the prediction of compound sequestration in specific tissues using partition coefficients require a parameter that ch...

  3. Testing the predictive value of peripheral gene expression for nonremission following citalopram treatment for major depression.

    PubMed

    Guilloux, Jean-Philippe; Bassi, Sabrina; Ding, Ying; Walsh, Chris; Turecki, Gustavo; Tseng, George; Cyranowski, Jill M; Sibille, Etienne

    2015-02-01

    Major depressive disorder (MDD) in general, and anxious-depression in particular, are characterized by poor rates of remission with first-line treatments, contributing to the chronic illness burden suffered by many patients. Prospective research is needed to identify the biomarkers predicting nonremission prior to treatment initiation. We collected blood samples from a discovery cohort of 34 adult MDD patients with co-occurring anxiety and 33 matched, nondepressed controls at baseline and after 12 weeks (of citalopram plus psychotherapy treatment for the depressed cohort). Samples were processed on gene arrays and group differences in gene expression were investigated. Exploratory analyses suggest that at pretreatment baseline, nonremitting patients differ from controls with gene function and transcription factor analyses potentially related to elevated inflammation and immune activation. In a second phase, we applied an unbiased machine learning prediction model and corrected for model-selection bias. Results show that baseline gene expression predicted nonremission with 79.4% corrected accuracy with a 13-gene model. The same gene-only model predicted nonremission after 8 weeks of citalopram treatment with 76% corrected accuracy in an independent validation cohort of 63 MDD patients treated with citalopram at another institution. Together, these results demonstrate the potential, but also the limitations, of baseline peripheral blood-based gene expression to predict nonremission after citalopram treatment. These results not only support their use in future prediction tools but also suggest that increased accuracy may be obtained with the inclusion of additional predictors (eg, genetics and clinical scales). PMID:25176167

  4. Measuring Negative Attitudes towards Overweight and Obesity in the German Population – Psychometric Properties and Reference Values for the German Short Version of the Fat Phobia Scale (FPS)

    PubMed Central

    Stein, Janine; Luppa, Melanie; Ruzanska, Ulrike; Sikorski, Claudia; König, Hans-Helmut; Riedel-Heller, Steffi G.

    2014-01-01

    Objective Obesity is one of the leading public health problems worldwide. Obese individuals are often stigmatized and the psychosocial consequences of overweight and obesity are the subject of current research. To detect stigmatizing attitudes towards obese people, the Fat Phobia Scale (FPS) was developed in the USA in the early nineties. In addition, the 14-item short form of the FPS was constructed. The FPS belongs to the most commonly used instruments for measuring negative attitudes towards obese people because of its good psychometric properties. For the recently developed German short form of the FPS, however, the comprehensive investigation of the psychometric properties and the determination of reference values are still pending. Thus, the main objectives of this study were the evaluation of the psychometric quality of the scale as well as the calculation of reference values. Methods The study was based on a representative survey in the German general population. A sample of 1,657 subjects (18–94 years) was assessed via structured telephone interviews including the 14-item German version of the FPS. Descriptive statistics and inference-statistical analyses were conducted. Reference values in terms of percentage ranks were calculated. Results Substantial evidence for the reliability and validity of the German short version of the FPS was found. This study, for the first time in Germany, provides age-specific reference values for the German short form of the FPS allowing the interpretation of individual test scores. Conclusion Facing the far-reaching consequences of experienced stigmatization of obese individuals, these study results provide an important basis for further studies aiming at the investigation of negative attitudes towards overweight and obesity. PMID:25474195

  5. Predicted Outcome Value of E-Mail Communication: Factors that Foster Professional Relational Development between Students and Teachers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Young, Stacy; Kelsey, Dawn; Lancaster, Alexander

    2011-01-01

    Using predicted outcome value theory as a guide, this study investigated the link between e-mail correspondence as a form of computer mediated extra class communication and how it may shape students' desire to foster student-teacher relational development. The findings revealed that when students believe their teacher e-mails the class frequently,…

  6. Is the prediction of pKa values by constant-pH molecular dynamics being hindered by inherited problems?

    PubMed

    Machuqueiro, Miguel; Baptista, António M

    2011-12-01

    In this study, we investigate two factors that can hinder the performance of constant-pH molecular dynamics methods in predicting protein pK(a) values, using hen egg white lysozyme as a test system. The first factor is related to the molecular definition and pK(a) value of model compounds in the Poisson-Boltzmann framework. We address this by defining the model compound as a molecular fragment with an associated pK(a) value that is calibrated against experimental data, which results in a decrease of 0.12 units in pK(a) errors. The second addressed factor is the possibility that detrimental structural distortions are being introduced in the simulations by the underlying molecular mechanics force field. This issue is investigated by analyzing how the gradual structural rearrangements affect the predicted pK(a) values. The two GROMOS force fields studied here (43A1 and 53A6) yield good pK(a) predictions, although a time-dependent performance is observed: 43A1 performs better after a few nanoseconds of structural reorganization (pK(a) errors of ~0.45), while 53A6 gives the best prediction right at the first nanosecond (pK(a) errors of 0.42). These results suggest that the good performance of constant-pH molecular dynamics methods could be further improved if these force field limitations were overcome. PMID:22072522

  7. Predictive Relationships between Secondary School Students' Human Values, Motivational Beliefs, and Self-Regulated Learning Strategies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tanriseven, Isil; Dilmac, Bulent

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the exploratory and predictive relationships between secondary school students' human values and their motivational beliefs and self-regulated learning strategies and thus to test the relevant model was developed. A correlational filed study was used in this research. The sample of the research…

  8. Development and Predictive Value of Early Vocalizations in Very-Low-Birth-Weight Children: A Longitudinal Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stolt, Suvi; Lehtonen, Liisa; Haataja, Leena; Lapinleimu, Helena

    2012-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to analyze early vocalization development, the predictive value of this development in terms of later language skills, and possible gender difference in early vocalization development in a selected cohort of 32 very-low-birth-weight (VLBW) children and 35 full-term controls. The data on early vocalization…

  9. Validation of Prediction Equations of Energy Values of a Single Ingredient or Their Combinations in Male Broilers

    PubMed Central

    Alvarenga, R. R.; Rodrigues, P. B.; Zangeronimo, M. G.; Oliveira, E. C.; Mariano, F. C. M. Q.; Lima, E. M. C.; Garcia, A. A. P.; Naves, L. P.; Nardelli, N. B. S.

    2015-01-01

    A set of prediction equations to estimate the nitrogen-corrected apparent metabolizable energy (AMEn) of individual ingredients and diets used in the poultry feed industry was evaluated. The AMEn values of three energy ingredients (maize, sorghum and defatted maize germ meal), four protein ingredients (soybean meal, maize gluten meal 60% crude protein, integral micronized soy and roasted whole soybean) and four diets (three containing four feedstuffs, complex diets, and one containing only corn-soybean meal, basal diet) were determined using a metabolism assay with male broilers from 1 to 7, 8 to 21, 22 to 35, and 36 to 42 days old. These values were compared to the AMEn values presented in the tables of energy composition or estimated by equation predictions based on chemical composition data of feedstuffs. In general, the equation predictions more precisely estimated the AMEn of feedstuffs when compared to the tables of energy composition. The equation AMEn (dry matter [DM] basis) = 4,164.187+51.006 ether extract (% in DM basis)–197.663 ash–35.689 crude fiber (% in DM basis)–20.593 neutral detergent fiber (% in DM basis) (R2 = 0.75) was the most applicable for the prediction of the energy values of feedstuffs and diets used in the poultry feed industry. PMID:26194230

  10. Validation of Prediction Equations of Energy Values of a Single Ingredient or Their Combinations in Male Broilers.

    PubMed

    Alvarenga, R R; Rodrigues, P B; Zangeronimo, M G; Oliveira, E C; Mariano, F C M Q; Lima, E M C; Garcia, A A P; Naves, L P; Nardelli, N B S

    2015-09-01

    A set of prediction equations to estimate the nitrogen-corrected apparent metabolizable energy (AMEn) of individual ingredients and diets used in the poultry feed industry was evaluated. The AMEn values of three energy ingredients (maize, sorghum and defatted maize germ meal), four protein ingredients (soybean meal, maize gluten meal 60% crude protein, integral micronized soy and roasted whole soybean) and four diets (three containing four feedstuffs, complex diets, and one containing only corn-soybean meal, basal diet) were determined using a metabolism assay with male broilers from 1 to 7, 8 to 21, 22 to 35, and 36 to 42 days old. These values were compared to the AMEn values presented in the tables of energy composition or estimated by equation predictions based on chemical composition data of feedstuffs. In general, the equation predictions more precisely estimated the AMEn of feedstuffs when compared to the tables of energy composition. The equation AMEn (dry matter [DM] basis) = 4,164.187+51.006 ether extract (% in DM basis)-197.663 ash-35.689 crude fiber (% in DM basis)-20.593 neutral detergent fiber (% in DM basis) (R(2) = 0.75) was the most applicable for the prediction of the energy values of feedstuffs and diets used in the poultry feed industry. PMID:26194230

  11. Differences between absolute and predicted values of forced expiratory volumes to classify ventilatory impairment in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

    PubMed

    Checkley, William; Foreman, Marilyn G; Bhatt, Surya P; Dransfield, Mark T; Han, MeiLan; Hanania, Nicola A; Hansel, Nadia N; Regan, Elizabeth A; Wise, Robert A

    2016-02-01

    The Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) severity criterion for COPD is used widely in clinical and research settings; however, it requires the use of ethnic- or population-specific reference equations. We propose two alternative severity criteria based on absolute post-bronchodilator FEV1 values (FEV1 and FEV1/height2) that do not depend on reference equations. We compared the accuracy of these classification schemasto those based on % predicted values (GOLD criterion) and Z-scores of post-bronchodilator FEV1 to predict COPD-related functional outcomes or percent emphysema by computerized tomography of the lung. We tested the predictive accuracy of all severity criteria for the 6-minute walk distance (6MWD), St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ), 36-item Short-Form Health Survey physical health component score (SF-36) and the MMRC Dyspnea Score. We used 10-fold cross-validation to estimate average prediction errors and Bonferroni-adjusted t-tests to compare average prediction errors across classification criteria. We analyzed data of 3772 participants with COPD (average age 63 years, 54% male). Severity criteria based on absolute post-bronchodilator FEV1 or FEV1/height2 yielded similar prediction errors for 6MWD, SGRQ, SF-36 physical health component score, and the MMRC Dyspnea Score when compared to the GOLD criterion (all p > 0.34); and, had similar predictive accuracy when compared with the Z-scores criterion, with the exception for 6MWD where post-bronchodilator FEV1 appeared to perform slightly better than Z-scores (p = 0.01). Subgroup analyses did not identify differences across severity criteria by race, sex, or age between absolute values and the GOLD criterion or one based on Z-scores. Severity criteria for COPD based on absolute values of post-bronchodilator FEV1 performed equally as well as did criteria based on predicted values when benchmarked against COPD-related functional and structural outcomes, are simple to use

  12. Anticipating Their Future: Adolescent Values for the Future Predict Adult Behaviors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Finlay, Andrea K.; Wray-Lake, Laura; Warren, Michael; Maggs, Jennifer

    2015-01-01

    Adolescent future values--beliefs about what will matter to them in the future--may shape their adult behavior. Utilizing a national longitudinal British sample, this study examined whether adolescent future values in six domains (i.e., family responsibility, full-time job, personal responsibility, autonomy, civic responsibility, and hedonistic…

  13. Total motile sperm count has a superior predictive value over the WHO 2010 cut-off values for the outcomes of intracytoplasmic sperm injection cycles.

    PubMed

    Borges, E; Setti, A S; Braga, D P A F; Figueira, R C S; Iaconelli, A

    2016-09-01

    The objective of this study was to compare (i) the intracytoplasmic sperm injection outcomes among groups with different total motile sperm count ranges, (ii) the intracytoplasmic sperm injection outcomes between groups with normal and abnormal total motile sperm count, and (iii) the predictive values of WHO 2010 cut-off values and pre-wash total motile sperm count for the intracytoplasmic sperm injection outcomes, in couples with male infertility. This study included data from 518 patients undergoing their first intracytoplasmic sperm injection cycle as a result of male infertility. Couples were divided into five groups according to their total motile sperm count: Group I, total motile sperm count <1 × 10(6) ; group II, total motile sperm count 1-5 × 10(6) ; group III, total motile sperm count 5-10 × 10(6) ; group IV, total motile sperm count 10-20 × 10(6) ; and group V, total motile sperm count >20 × 10(6) (which was considered a normal total motile sperm count value). Then, couples were grouped into an abnormal and normal total motile sperm count group. The groups were compared regarding intracytoplasmic sperm injection outcomes. The predictive values of WHO 2010 cut-off values and total motile sperm count for the intracytoplasmic sperm injection outcomes were also investigated. The fertilization rate was lower in total motile sperm count group I compared to total motile sperm count group V (72.5 ± 17.6 vs. 84.9 ± 14.4, p = 0.011). The normal total motile sperm count group had a higher fertilization rate (84.9 ± 14.4 vs. 81.1 ± 15.8, p = 0.016) and lower miscarriage rate (17.9% vs. 29.5%, p = 0.041) compared to the abnormal total motile sperm count group. The total motile sperm count was the only parameter that demonstrated a predictive value for the formation of high-quality embryos on D2 (OR: 1.18, p = 0.013), formation of high-quality embryos on D3 (OR: 1.12, p = 0.037), formation of blastocysts on D5 (OR: 1.16, p = 0

  14. What is the diagnostic value of head MRI after negative head CT in ED patients presenting with symptoms atypical of stroke?

    PubMed

    Hammoud, Khaled; Lanfranchi, Michael; Li, Sean X; Mehan, William A

    2016-08-01

    The diagnostic value of head magnetic resonance imaging after negative head computed tomography for emergency department patients with vague neurologic symptoms, such as dizziness and altered mental status, remains an ongoing discussion. The objective of this study is to detect the subgroup of patients with such presentations having minor strokes whom may benefit from primary and secondary stroke prevention. We conducted a retrospective analysis and stratified patient risk factors associated with positive findings on subsequent head MRI ordered by the emergency department physician following a normal head CT. Two hundred fifty-two patients presenting with atypical stroke symptoms to the emergency department had a negative head CT followed by head MRI within 24 h ordered by emergency department clinician (123 males and 129 females; mean age of 59.4). Twenty nine of the 252 patients (11.5 %) had findings of acute to subacute infarct on the subsequent MRI. Positive MRI findings were statistically correlated with the following variables: age (p < 0.001), history of hyperlipidemia (p = 0.019), hypertension (p < 0.001), diabetes (p = 0.004), anticoagulation use (p = 0.029), and prior transient ischemic attack or stroke (p < 0.001). The mean age of the MRI-positive group was 74.1 years, with a mean difference of 16.7 ± 2.4 years more than the MRI-negative group (95 % CI, 11.8-21.5 years) (t = 6.8, p < 0.001). Emergency physicians caring for patients with vague neurologic complaints should maintain a lower threshold for ordering a head MRI despite a negative head CT for elderly patients with a history of prior stroke or transient ischemic attack to exclude a CT occult or minor ischemic stroke. PMID:27220652

  15. Accuracy of genomic prediction using deregressed breeding values estimated from purebred and crossbred offspring phenotypes in pigs.

    PubMed

    Hidalgo, A M; Bastiaansen, J W M; Lopes, M S; Veroneze, R; Groenen, M A M; de Koning, D-J

    2015-07-01

    Genomic selection is applied to dairy cattle breeding to improve the genetic progress of purebred (PB) animals, whereas in pigs and poultry the target is a crossbred (CB) animal for which a different strategy appears to be needed. The source of information used to estimate the breeding values, i.e., using phenotypes of CB or PB animals, may affect the accuracy of prediction. The objective of our study was to assess the direct genomic value (DGV) accuracy of CB and PB pigs using different sources of phenotypic information. Data used were from 3 populations: 2,078 Dutch Landrace-based, 2,301 Large White-based, and 497 crossbreds from an F1 cross between the 2 lines. Two female reproduction traits were analyzed: gestation length (GLE) and total number of piglets born (TNB). Phenotypes used in the analyses originated from offspring of genotyped individuals. Phenotypes collected on CB and PB animals were analyzed as separate traits using a single-trait model. Breeding values were estimated separately for each trait in a pedigree BLUP analysis and subsequently deregressed. Deregressed EBV for each trait originating from different sources (CB or PB offspring) were used to study the accuracy of genomic prediction. Accuracy of prediction was computed as the correlation between DGV and the DEBV of the validation population. Accuracy of prediction within PB populations ranged from 0.43 to 0.62 across GLE and TNB. Accuracies to predict genetic merit of CB animals with one PB population in the training set ranged from 0.12 to 0.28, with the exception of using the CB offspring phenotype of the Dutch Landrace that resulted in an accuracy estimate around 0 for both traits. Accuracies to predict genetic merit of CB animals with both parental PB populations in the training set ranged from 0.17 to 0.30. We conclude that prediction within population and trait had good predictive ability regardless of the trait being the PB or CB performance, whereas using PB population(s) to predict

  16. Relationship among performance, carcass, and feed efficiency characteristics, and their ability to predict economic value in the feedlot.

    PubMed

    Retallick, K M; Faulkner, D B; Rodriguez-Zas, S L; Nkrumah, J D; Shike, D W

    2013-12-01

    A 4-yr study was conducted using 736 steers of known Angus, Simmental, or Simmental × Angus genetics to determine performance, carcass, and feed efficiency factors that explained variation in economic performance. Steers were pen fed and individual DMI was recorded using a GrowSafe automated feeding system (GrowSafe Systems Ltd., Airdrie, Alberta, Canada). Steers consumed a similar diet and received similar management each year. The objectives of this study were to: 1) determine current economic value of feed efficiency and 2) identify performance, carcass, and feed efficiency characteristics that predict: carcass value, profit, cost of gain, and feed costs. Economic data used were from 2011 values. Feed efficiency values investigated were: feed conversion ratio (FCR; feed to gain), residual feed intake (RFI), residual BW gain (RG), and residual intake and BW gain (RIG). Dependent variables were carcass value ($/steer), profit ($/steer), feed costs ($/steer • d(-1)), and cost of gain ($/kg). Independent variables were year, DMI, ADG, HCW, LM area, marbling, yield grade, dam breed, and sire breed. A 10% improvement in RG (P < 0.05) yielded the lowest cost of gain at $0.09/kg and highest carcass value at $17.92/steer. Carcass value increased (P < 0.05) as feed efficiency improved for FCR, RG, and RIG. Profit increased with a 10% improvement in feed efficiency (P < 0.05) with FCR at $34.65/steer, RG at $31.21/steer, RIG at $21.66/steer, and RFI at $11.47/steer. The carcass value prediction model explained 96% of the variation among carcasses and included HCW, marbling score, and yield grade. Average daily gain, marbling score, yield grade, DMI, HCW, and year born constituted 81% of the variation for prediction of profit. Eighty-five percent of the variation in cost of gain was explained by ADG, DMI, HCW, and year. Prediction equations were developed that excluded ADG and DMI, and included feed efficiency values. Using these equations, cost of gain was explained

  17. Negative Cognitive Styles Synergistically Predict Suicidal Ideation in Bipolar Spectrum Disorders: A Three-Year Prospective Study

    PubMed Central

    Stange, Jonathan P.; Hamilton, Jessica L.; Burke, Taylor A.; Kleiman, Evan M.; O’Garro-Moore, Jared K.; Seligman, Nicole D.; Abramson, Lyn Y.; Alloy, Lauren B.

    2015-01-01

    Rates of suicidal ideation and behavior are extremely high in Bipolar Spectrum Disorders (BSDs). However, relatively little work has evaluated potentially synergistic relationships between cognitive and emotion-regulatory processes proposed by theoretical models of suicidality in BSDs. The present study evaluated whether negative cognitive style and subtypes of rumination would exacerbate the impact of self-criticism on suicidal ideation in a prospective study of individuals with BSDs. Seventy-two young adults with BSDs (bipolar II, bipolar NOS, or cyclothymia) completed diagnostic interviews and trait measures of self-criticism, negative cognitive style, and brooding and reflective rumination at a baseline assessment. The occurrence of suicidal ideation was assessed as part of diagnostic interviews completed every four months for an average of three years of follow-up. Negative cognitive style and reflective rumination strengthened the association between self-criticism and the prospective occurrence of suicidal ideation across follow-up. Individuals with high levels of self-criticism in conjunction with negative cognitive style or reflective rumination were most likely to experience the onset of suicidal ideation. Self-criticism may work synergistically with negative cognitive style and rumination to confer risk for suicidal ideation in bipolar spectrum disorders. These results support theoretical models of suicidality in BSDs and indicate that evaluating and understanding negative cognitive styles may help to identify individuals who are at risk for suicide. PMID:25660736

  18. Relative value of diverse brain MRI and blood-based biomarkers for predicting cognitive decline in the elderly

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madsen, Sarah K.; Ver Steeg, Greg; Daianu, Madelaine; Mezher, Adam; Jahanshad, Neda; Nir, Talia M.; Hua, Xue; Gutman, Boris A.; Galstyan, Aram; Thompson, Paul M.

    2016-03-01

    Cognitive decline accompanies many debilitating illnesses, including Alzheimer's disease (AD). In old age, brain tissue loss also occurs along with cognitive decline. Although blood tests are easier to perform than brain MRI, few studies compare brain scans to standard blood tests to see which kinds of information best predict future decline. In 504 older adults from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI), we first used linear regression to assess the relative value of different types of data to predict cognitive decline, including 196 blood panel biomarkers, 249 MRI biomarkers obtained from the FreeSurfer software, demographics, and the AD-risk gene APOE. A subset of MRI biomarkers was the strongest predictor. There was no specific blood marker that increased predictive accuracy on its own, we found that a novel unsupervised learning method, CorEx, captured weak correlations among blood markers, and the resulting clusters offered unique predictive power.

  19. Oxygen isotopes in Indian Plate eclogites (Kaghan Valley, Pakistan): Negative δ18O values from a high latitude protolith reset by Himalayan metamorphism

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rehman, Hafiz Ur; Tanaka, Ryoji; O'Brien, Patrick J.; Kobayashi, Katsura; Tsujimori, Tatsuki; Nakamura, Eizo; Yamamoto, Hiroshi; Khan, Tahseenullah; Kaneko, Yoshiyuki

    2014-11-01

    Oxygen isotope compositions are reported for the first time for the Himalayan metabasites of the Kaghan Valley, Pakistan in this study. The highest metamorphic grades are recorded in the north of the valley, near the India-Asia collision boundary, in the form of high-pressure (HP: Group I) and ultrahigh-pressure (UHP: Group II) eclogites. The rocks show a step-wise decrease in grade from the UHP to HP eclogites and amphibolites. The protoliths of these metabasites were the Permian Panjal Trap basalts (ca. 267 ± 2.4 Ma), which were emplaced along the northern margin of India when it was part of Gondwana. After the break-up of Gondwana, India drifted northward, subducted beneath Asia and underwent UHP metamorphism during the Eocene (ca. 45 ± 1.2 Ma). At the regional scale, amphibolites, Group I and II eclogites yielded δ18O values of + 5.84 and + 5.91‰, + 1.66 to + 4.24‰, and - 2.25 to + 0.76‰, respectively, relative to VSMOW. On a more local scale, within a single eclogite body, the δ18O values were the lowest (- 2.25 to- 1.44‰) in the central, the best preserved (least retrograded) parts, and show a systematic increase outward into more retrograded rocks, reaching up to + 0.12‰. These values are significantly lower than the typical mantle values for basalts of + 5.7 ± 0.3‰. The unusually low or negative δ18O values in Group II eclogites potentially resulted from hydrothermal alteration of the protoliths by interactions with meteoric water when the Indian plate was at southern high latitudes (~ 60°S). The stepwise increase in δ18O values, among different eclogite bodies in general and at single outcrop-scales in particular, reflects differing degrees of resetting of the oxygen isotope compositions during exhumation-related retrogression.

  20. Prediction of postoperative pulmonary function following thoracic operations. Value of ventilation-perfusion scanning

    SciTech Connect

    Bria, W.F.; Kanarek, D.J.; Kazemi, H.

    1983-08-01

    Surgical resection of lung cancer is frequently required in patients with severely impaired lung function resulting from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Twenty patients with obstructive lung disease and cancer (mean preoperative forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) . 1.73 L) were studied preoperatively and postoperatively by spirometry and radionuclide perfusion, single-breath ventilation, and washout techniques to test the ability of these methods to predict preoperatively the partial loss of lung function by the resection. Postoperative FEV1 and forced vital capacity (FVC) were accurately predicted by the formula: postoperative FEV1 (or FVC) . preoperative FEV1 X percent function of regions of lung not to be resected (r . 0.88 and 0.95, respectively). Ventilation and perfusion scans are equally effective in prediction. Washout data add to the sophistication of the method by permitting the qualitative evaluation of ventilation during tidal breathing. Criteria for patients requiring the study are suggested.

  1. Management of hepatocellular carcinoma: Predictive value of immunohistochemical markers for postoperative survival

    PubMed Central

    Niu, Zhao-Shan; Niu, Xiao-Jun; Wang, Mei

    2015-01-01

    Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) accounts for over 90% of all primary liver cancers. With an ever increasing incidence trend year by year, it has become the third most common cause of death from cancer worldwide. Hepatic resection is generally considered to be one of the most effective therapies for HCC patients, however, there is a high risk of recurrence in postoperative HCC. In clinical practice, there exists an urgent need for valid prognostic markers to identify patients with prognosis, hence the importance of studies on prognostic markers in improving the prediction of HCC prognosis. This review focuses on the most promising immunohistochemical prognostic markers in predicting the postoperative survival of HCC patients. PMID:25624992

  2. Value of apparent diffusion coefficient for predicting malignancy of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Lei; Rao, Sheng-Xiang; Xu, Xue-Feng; Wang, Dan-Song; Jin, Da-Yong; Zeng, Meng-Su

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE We aimed to explore the potential value of the whole tumor apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) for discriminating between benign and malignant intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) of the pancreas. METHODS Forty-two patients underwent 1.5 T magnetic resonance imaging that included diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI, b=0.500 s/mm2). The mean, minimum, and maximum ADC values were measured for the whole tumor. The differences between benign and malignant IPMNs were calculated for the mean ADC, ADC-min, and ADC-max values. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis was conducted to evaluate their potential diagnostic performance. RESULTS Fifteen of 25 benign IPMNs demonstrated low or iso-signal intensity on DWI with a b value of 500 s/mm2 compared with normal pancreatic parenchyma, whereas all malignant IPMNs demonstrated high signal intensity. The mean value of ADC was significantly higher in benign IPMNs compared with malignant IPMNs (3.39×10−3 mm2/s vs. 2.39×10−3 mm2/s, P < 0.001), with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.92 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.79–0.98). The ADC-min value of malignant IPMNs was also significantly lower than that of benign IPMNs (1.24×10−3 mm2/s vs. 2.58×10−3 mm2/s, P < 0.001), with an AUC of 0.94 (95% CI, 0.82–0.99). No marked difference was found between benign and malignant IPMNs for the ADC-max value (3.89×10−3 mm2/s vs. 3.78×10−3 mm2/s, P = 0.299). CONCLUSION Lower mean and minimum ADC values of the whole tumor might be potential predictors of malignant IPMNs of the pancreas. PMID:27283593

  3. The predictive value of early treatment response in antipsychotic-naive patients with first-episode psychosis: Haloperidol versus olanzapine.

    PubMed

    Rasmussen, Sean A; Rosebush, Patricia I; Anglin, Rebecca E; Mazurek, Michael F

    2016-07-30

    Early antipsychotic response predicts outcomes for psychotic patients, but recent evidence suggests that this may not be true for patients treated with olanzapine. In this study, we assessed the predictive value of early response to olanzapine or haloperidol in 75 antipsychotic-naive, first-episode psychosis inpatients. Patients were assessed weekly using the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS), Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HAM-D), Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale (HAM-A), and Young Mania Rating Scale (YMRS). Regression analyses were used to determine whether improvement at week 2 or week 3 predicted improvement at hospital discharge. The majority of patients in both groups experienced a decrease in symptom severity of ≥50% at week 2. In the haloperidol group, week 2 improvement predicted improvement at discharge for all measures except the HAM-A. In the olanzapine group, week 2 improvement only predicted improvement at discharge for HAM-D scores. However, week 3 improvement in the olanzapine group predicted improvement at discharge for all measures except the HAM-A. Olanzapine non-responders at week 3 (but not week 2) benefited from having olanzapine switched to another antipsychotic. These results suggest that a 2 week trial of haloperidol is sufficient to predict treatment outcomes, while a 3 week trial is required for olanzapine. PMID:27156027

  4. Predicting College Grades: The Value of Achievement Goals in Supplementing Ability Measures

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Young, John W.

    2007-01-01

    Achievement goal theory is an important theoretical framework for understanding achievement motivation. In previous studies, a mastery orientation has been shown to be related to students' interest, while a performance orientation has been found to be predictive of academic performance outcomes such as course grades. In this study, the two mastery…

  5. Value of College Education Mediating the Predictive Effects of Causal Attributions on Academic Success

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dong, Ying; Stupnisky, Robert H.; Obade, Masela; Gerszewski, Tammy; Ruthig, Joelle C.

    2015-01-01

    Causal attributions (explanations for outcomes) have been found to predict college students' academic success; however, not all students attributing success or failure to adaptive (i.e., controllable) causes perform well in university. Eccles et al.'s ("Achievement and achievement motives." W.H. Freeman, San Francisco, pp 75-145, 1983)…

  6. Sampling the Airway: Improving the Predictive and Toxicological Value of Bronchoalveolar Lavage

    EPA Science Inventory

    Bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) is a relatively simple technique to obtain biological material in the form of BAL fluid (BALF) from airways of humans and laboratory animals. Numerous predictive biomarkers of pulmonary injury and diseases can be detected in BALF which aid in diagnosi...

  7. Predictive Value of Morphological Features in Patients with Autism versus Normal Controls

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ozgen, H.; Hellemann, G. S.; de Jonge, M. V.; Beemer, F. A.; van Engeland, H.

    2013-01-01

    We investigated the predictive power of morphological features in 224 autistic patients and 224 matched-pairs controls. To assess the relationship between the morphological features and autism, we used the receiver operator curves (ROC). In addition, we used recursive partitioning (RP) to determine a specific pattern of abnormalities that is…

  8. Comparison of breeding value prediction for two traits in a Nellore-Angus crossbred population using different Bayesian modeling methodologies

    PubMed Central

    Hulsman Hanna, Lauren L.; Garrick, Dorian J.; Gill, Clare A.; Herring, Andy D.; Sanders, James O.; Riley, David G.

    2014-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to 1) compare four models for breeding value prediction using genomic or pedigree information and 2) evaluate the impact of fixed effects that account for family structure. Comparisons were made in a Nellore-Angus population comprising F2, F3 and half-siblings to embryo transfer F2 calves with records for overall temperament at weaning (TEMP; n = 769) and Warner-Bratzler shear force (WBSF; n = 387). After quality control, there were 34,913 whole genome SNP markers remaining. Bayesian methods employed were BayesB (π̃ = 0.995 or 0.997 for WBSF or TEMP, respectively) and BayesC (π = 0 and π̃), where π̃ is the ideal proportion of markers not included. Direct genomic values (DGV) from single trait Bayesian analyses were compared to conventional pedigree-based animal model breeding values. Numerically, BayesC procedures (using π̃) had the highest accuracy of all models for WBSF and TEMP (ρ̂gĝ = 0.843 and 0.923, respectively), but BayesB had the least bias (regression of performance on prediction closest to 1, β̂y,x = 2.886 and 1.755, respectively). Accounting for family structure decreased accuracy and increased bias in prediction of DGV indicating a detrimental impact when used in these prediction methods that simultaneously fit many markers. PMID:25505837

  9. Prognostic Value of Molecular Subtypes, Ki67 Expression and Impact of Postmastectomy Radiation Therapy in Breast Cancer Patients With Negative Lymph Nodes After Mastectomy

    SciTech Connect

    Selz, Jessica; Stevens, Denise; Jouanneau, Ludivine; Labib, Alain; Le Scodan, Romuald

    2012-12-01

    Purpose: To determine whether Ki67 expression and breast cancer subtypes could predict locoregional recurrence (LRR) and influence the postmastectomy radiotherapy (PMRT) decision in breast cancer (BC) patients with pathologic negative lymph nodes (pN0) after modified radical mastectomy (MRM). Methods and Materials: A total of 699 BC patients with pN0 status after MRM, treated between 2001 and 2008, were identified from a prospective database in a single institution. Tumors were classified by intrinsic molecular subtype as luminal A or B, HER2+, and triple-negative (TN) using estrogen, progesterone, and HER2 receptors. Multivariate Cox analysis was used to determine the risk of LRR associated with intrinsic subtypes and Ki67 expression, adjusting for known prognostic factors. Results: At a median follow-up of 56 months, 17 patients developed LRR. Five-year LRR-free survival and overall survival in the entire population were 97%, and 94.7%, respectively, with no difference between the PMRT (n=191) and no-PMRT (n=508) subgroups. No constructed subtype was associated with an increased risk of LRR. Ki67 >20% was the only independent prognostic factor associated with increased LRR (hazard ratio, 4.18; 95% CI, 1.11-15.77; P<.0215). However, PMRT was not associated with better locoregional control in patients with proliferative tumors. Conclusions: Ki67 expression but not molecular subtypes are predictors of locoregional recurrence in breast cancer patients with negative lymph nodes after MRM. The benefit of adjuvant RT in patients with proliferative tumors should be further investigated in prospective studies.

  10. Comparing Quantitative Values of Two Generations of Laser-Assisted Indocyanine Green Dye Angiography Systems: Can We Predict Necrosis?

    PubMed Central

    Fourman, Mitchell S.; Rivara, Andrew; Dagum, Alexander B.; Huston, Tara L.; Ganz, Jason C.; Bui, Duc T.; Khan, Sami U.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: Several devices exist today to assist the intraoperative determination of skin flap perfusion. Laser-Assisted Indocyanine Green Dye Angiography (LAICGA) has been shown to accurately predict mastectomy skin flap necrosis using quantitative perfusion values. The laser properties of the latest LAICGA device (SPY Elite) differ significantly from its predecessor system (SPY 2001), preventing direct translation of previous published data. The purpose of this study was to establish a mathematical relationship of perfusion values between these 2 devices. Methods: Breast reconstruction patients were prospectively enrolled into a clinical trial where skin flap evaluation and excision was based on quantitative SPY Q values previously established in the literature. Initial study patients underwent mastectomy skin flap evaluation using both SPY systems simultaneously. Absolute perfusion unit (APU) values at identical locations on the breast were then compared graphically. Results: 210 data points were identified on the same patients (n = 4) using both SPY systems. A linear relationship (y = 2.9883x + 12.726) was identified with a high level or correlation (R2 = 0.744). Previously published values using SPY 2001 (APU 3.7) provided a value of 23.8 APU on the SPY Elite. In addition, postoperative necrosis in these patients correlated to regions of skin identified with the SPY Elite with APU less than 23.8. Conclusion: Intraoperative comparison of LAICGA systems has provided direct correlation of perfusion values predictive of necrosis that were previously established in the literature. An APU value of 3.7 from the SPY 2001 correlates to a SPY Elite APU value of 23.8. PMID:25525483

  11. Prevalence and Predictive Value of Dyspnea Ratings in Hospitalized Patients: Pilot Studies

    PubMed Central

    Stevens, Jennifer P.

    2016-01-01

    Background Dyspnea (breathing discomfort) can be as powerfully aversive as pain, yet is not routinely assessed and documented in the clinical environment. Routine identification and documentation of dyspnea is the first step to improved symptom management and it may also identify patients at risk of negative clinical outcomes. Objective To estimate the prevalence of dyspnea and of dyspnea-associated risk among hospitalized patients. Design Two pilot prospective cohort studies. Setting Single academic medical center. Patients Consecutive patients admitted to four inpatient units: cardiology, hematology/oncology, medicine, and bariatric surgery. Measurements In Study 1, nurses documented current and recent patient-reported dyspnea at the time of the Initial Patient Assessment in 581 inpatients. In Study 2, nurses documented current dyspnea at least once every nursing shift in 367 patients. We describe the prevalence of burdensome dyspnea, and compare it to pain. We also compared dyspnea ratings with a composite of adverse outcomes: 1) receipt of care from the hospital’s rapid response system, 2) transfer to the intensive care unit, or 3) death in hospital. We defined burdensome dyspnea as a rating of 4 or more on a 10-point scale. Results Prevalence of burdensome current dyspnea upon admission (Study 1) was 13% (77 of 581, 95% CI 11%-16%). Prevalence of burdensome dyspnea at some time during the hospitalization (Study 2) was 16% (57 of 367, 95% CI 12%-20%). Dyspnea was associated with higher odds of a negative outcome. Conclusions In two pilot studies, we identified a significant symptom burden of dyspnea in hospitalized patients. Patients reporting dyspnea may benefit from a more careful focus on symptom management and may represent a population at greater risk for negative outcomes. PMID:27070144

  12. Random forest predictive modeling of mineral prospectivity with small number of prospects and data with missing values in Abra (Philippines)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carranza, Emmanuel John M.; Laborte, Alice G.

    2015-01-01

    Machine learning methods that have been used in data-driven predictive modeling of mineral prospectivity (e.g., artificial neural networks) invariably require large number of training prospect/locations and are unable to handle missing values in certain evidential data. The Random Forests (RF) algorithm, which is a machine learning method, has recently been applied to data-driven predictive mapping of mineral prospectivity, and so it is instructive to further study its efficacy in this particular field. This case study, carried out using data from Abra (Philippines), examines (a) if RF modeling can be used for data-driven modeling of mineral prospectivity in areas with a few (i.e., <20) mineral occurrences and (b) if RF modeling can handle evidential data with missing values. We found that RF modeling outperforms weights-of-evidence (WofE) modeling of porphyry-Cu prospectivity in the Abra area, where 12 porphyry-Cu prospects are known to exist. Moreover, just like WofE modeling, RF modeling allows analysis of the spatial associations of known prospects with individual layers of evidential data. Furthermore, RF modeling can handle missing values in evidential data through an RF-based imputation technique whereas in WofE modeling values are simply represented by zero weights. Therefore, the RF algorithm is potentially more useful than existing methods that are currently used for data-driven predictive mapping of mineral prospectivity. In particular, it is not a purely black-box method like artificial neural networks in the context of data-driven predictive modeling of mineral prospectivity. However, further testing of the method in other areas with a few mineral occurrences is needed to fully investigate its usefulness in data-driven predictive modeling of mineral prospectivity.

  13. Graphical assessment of incremental value of novel markers in prediction models: From statistical to decision analytical perspectives.

    PubMed

    Steyerberg, Ewout W; Vedder, Moniek M; Leening, Maarten J G; Postmus, Douwe; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Van Calster, Ben; Pencina, Michael J

    2015-07-01

    New markers may improve prediction of diagnostic and prognostic outcomes. We aimed to review options for graphical display and summary measures to assess the predictive value of markers over standard, readily available predictors. We illustrated various approaches using previously published data on 3264 participants from the Framingham Heart Study, where 183 developed coronary heart disease (10-year risk 5.6%). We considered performance measures for the incremental value of adding HDL cholesterol to a prediction model. An initial assessment may consider statistical significance (HR = 0.65, 95% confidence interval 0.53 to 0.80; likelihood ratio p < 0.001), and distributions of predicted risks (densities or box plots) with various summary measures. A range of decision thresholds is considered in predictiveness and receiver operating characteristic curves, where the area under the curve (AUC) increased from 0.762 to 0.774 by adding HDL. We can furthermore focus on reclassification of participants with and without an event in a reclassification graph, with the continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI) as a summary measure. When we focus on one particular decision threshold, the changes in sensitivity and specificity are central. We propose a net reclassification risk graph, which allows us to focus on the number of reclassified persons and their event rates. Summary measures include the binary AUC, the two-category NRI, and decision analytic variants such as the net benefit (NB). Various graphs and summary measures can be used to assess the incremental predictive value of a marker. Important insights for impact on decision making are provided by a simple graph for the net reclassification risk. PMID:25042996

  14. The value of serum Wisteria floribunda agglutinin-positive human Mac-2-binding protein as a predictive marker for hepatitis C virus-related complications after systemic chemotherapy.

    PubMed

    Totani, Haruhito; Kusumoto, Shigeru; Tanaka, Yasuhito; Suzuki, Nana; Hagiwara, Shinya; Kinoshita, Shiori; Iio, Etsuko; Ito, Asahi; Ri, Masaki; Ishida, Takashi; Komatsu, Hirokazu; Iida, Shinsuke

    2016-09-01

    Wisteria floribunda agglutinin-positive human Mac-2-binding protein (WFA(+)-M2BP) was developed recently as a predictive marker of progression to liver fibrosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients seropositive for hepatitis C virus (HCV). We retrospectively analyzed 16 HCV-seropositive patients who received systemic chemotherapy for hematologic malignancies to evaluate the usefulness of WFA(+)-M2BP for predicting HCV-related complications. These were defined as the onset of significant liver damage (LD) with increased HCV RNA levels, leading to interrupted or discontinued chemotherapy or the occurrence of HCC after chemotherapy. Baseline WFA(+)-M2BP levels were determined using preserved serum samples. The median level of WFA(+)-M2BP was 1.59 [cutoff index (C.O.I.) value range 0.38-6.66]. With a median follow-up of 623 days (range 120-2404), LD and HCC were observed in three and two patients, respectively. Detectable HCV RNA and WFA(+)-M2BP ≥2.0 C.O.I. at baseline were identified as risk factors for these HCV-related complications (P = 0.034 and P = 0.005, respectively). The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of the WFA(+)-M2BP level (cutoff point: 2.0 C.O.I.) for the occurrence of HCV-related complications were 100.0, 81.8, 71.4, and 100.0 %, respectively. WFA(+)-M2BP may be a useful marker for the prediction of HCV-related complications in HCV-seropositive patients following systemic chemotherapy. PMID:27255233

  15. Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Pancreatic Amylase Value on Postoperative Day 1 After Pancreatic Resection to Predict Postoperative Pancreatic Fistula.

    PubMed

    Lu, Xiongxiong; Wang, Xinjing; Fang, Yuan; Chen, Hao; Peng, Chenghong; Li, Hongwei; Deng, Xiaxing; Shen, Baiyong

    2016-02-01

    Early detection of postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) may help to improve the outcome following pancreatic surgery, and exclusion of POPF may allow early drain removal which can accelerate recovery. The aim of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of drain/plasma pancreatic amylase values on postoperative day 1 (DPA1/PPA1) in POPF by means of a systemic review and meta-analysis.Online journal databases and a manual search up to March 2015 were used. Studies clearly documenting DPA1 or PPA1 in predicting overall POPF (Grade 0 vs A+B+C) or clinically relevant POPF (Grade 0+A vs B+C) following pancreatic surgery were selected. Pooled predictive parameters were performed using STATA 12.0.Fifteen studies were finally identified with a total of 4331 patients. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of DPA1 were 0.92 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.81-0.96) and 0.77 (95% CI 0.64-0.86) for predicting overall POPF and 0.79 (95% CI 0.61-0.90) and 0.83 (95% CI 0.74-0.89) for predicting clinically relevant POPF. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of PPA1 were 0.74 (95% CI 0.63-0.82) and 0.62 (95% CI 0.55-0.70) for overall POPF. After the DPA1 at/over cutoff values for overall POPF or clinically relevant POPF, corresponding post-test probability (Post-test (+)) (if pretest probability was 50%) was 80% and 82% respectively, while, if values were below the cutoff values, the post-test probability (Post-test (-)) was 10% and 20% respectively. Post-test (+) and Post-test (-) of PPA1 for overall POPF were 66% and 30% respectively. In subgroup analysis, the summary sensitivities of cutoff <1000 group and cutoff >1000 group were 0.96 (0.92-0.98) and 0.85 (0.64-0.95), respectively; the summary specificities were 0.59 (0.44-0.72) and 0.86 (0.80-0.91) respectively. Positive LR were 2.3 (1.7-3.3) and 6.2 (3.7-10.2) respectively. Negative LR were 0.06 (0.03-0.14) and 0.18 (0.07-0.47) respectively.DPA1 is a useful predictive test for overall POPF and clinically

  16. P04.10PREDICTIVE VALUE OF MGMT PROMOTER METHYLATION QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT IN GLIOBLASTOMA, WHICH OPTIMAL CUT-POINT?

    PubMed Central

    de Saint-Denis, T.; Lerhun, E.; Ramirez, C.; Devos, P.; Maurage, C.A.; Dubois, F.; Reyns, N.; Escande, F.

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The methylation in the promoter region of the MGMT gene encoding the DNA repair protein O6-methyl guanine-DNA methyl transferase is a predictive marker for benefit from alkylating agent therapy and a prognostic factor in glioblastoma. Pyrosequencing-based assessement of MGMT promoter status is of particularly interest, but analytical methods and cut-points may varied from one center to another. We intend to establish a correlation between quantitative methylation of MGMT promoter values and overall survival (OS) or progression-free survival (PFS). METHODS: The clinical and biological data of 159 newly diagnosed glioblastoma recruited in Lille University Hospital between 2008 and 2011 were retrospectively collected. For the patients, the methylation status has been assessed by pyrosequencing on 5 CpG islands. Statistical analyses were performed using SAS software V9.3. RESULTS: Median age of the patients was 61 years. Sixty three patients were male. Of 159 patients, 156 underwent a surgery (40,4% of complete resection), 3 patients were diagnosed only by biopsies. 123 received concomitant radiotherapy and temozolomide and adjuvant temozolomide. The median PFS and the median OS were 9,9 and 15,9. The most significant cut-off methylation determined on 5 sites mean methylaion value was 12% for both predictive and pronostic evaluations. Site 1 methylation status was the best predictive value for both PFS and OS compared to the other CpG islands. On this site 1, a >3% methylation status was a significant predictive factor for reponse to standard treatment for PFS and a >25% site 1 methylation status was a strong pronostic factor for 2 years survival (OS) (47%). CONCLUSIONS: Even a low MGMT methylation (>3%) status on selected CpG site can already be a predictive factor for response to treatment in glioblastoma and allow us to reduce the cut-off values. Highest methylations status are correlated with the longest overall survival and therefore confirm the

  17. Concordance and predictive value of two adverse drug event data sets

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Accurate prediction of adverse drug events (ADEs) is an important means of controlling and reducing drug-related morbidity and mortality. Since no single “gold standard” ADE data set exists, a range of different drug safety data sets are currently used for developing ADE prediction models. There is a critical need to assess the degree of concordance between these various ADE data sets and to validate ADE prediction models against multiple reference standards. Methods We systematically evaluated the concordance of two widely used ADE data sets – Lexi-comp from 2010 and SIDER from 2012. The strength of the association between ADE (drug) counts in Lexi-comp and SIDER was assessed using Spearman rank correlation, while the differences between the two data sets were characterized in terms of drug categories, ADE categories and ADE frequencies. We also performed a comparative validation of the Predictive Pharmacosafety Networks (PPN) model using both ADE data sets. The predictive power of PPN using each of the two validation sets was assessed using the area under Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUROC). Results The correlations between the counts of ADEs and drugs in the two data sets were 0.84 (95% CI: 0.82-0.86) and 0.92 (95% CI: 0.91-0.93), respectively. Relative to an earlier snapshot of Lexi-comp from 2005, Lexi-comp 2010 and SIDER 2012 introduced a mean of 1,973 and 4,810 new drug-ADE associations per year, respectively. The difference between these two data sets was most pronounced for Nervous System and Anti-infective drugs, Gastrointestinal and Nervous System ADEs, and postmarketing ADEs. A minor difference of 1.1% was found in the AUROC of PPN when SIDER 2012 was used for validation instead of Lexi-comp 2010. Conclusions In conclusion, the ADE and drug counts in Lexi-comp and SIDER data sets were highly correlated and the choice of validation set did not greatly affect the overall prediction performance of PPN. Our results also suggest

  18. Negative Events in Childhood Predict Trajectories of Internalizing Symptoms Up to Young Adulthood: An 18-Year Longitudinal Study

    PubMed Central

    Melchior, Maria; Touchette, Évelyne; Prokofyeva, Elena; Chollet, Aude; Fombonne, Eric; Elidemir, Gulizar; Galéra, Cédric

    2014-01-01

    Background Common negative events can precipitate the onset of internalizing symptoms. We studied whether their occurrence in childhood is associated with mental health trajectories over the course of development. Methods Using data from the TEMPO study, a French community-based cohort study of youths, we studied the association between negative events in 1991 (when participants were aged 4–16 years) and internalizing symptoms, assessed by the ASEBA family of instruments in 1991, 1999, and 2009 (n = 1503). Participants' trajectories of internalizing symptoms were estimated with semi-parametric regression methods (PROC TRAJ). Data were analyzed using multinomial regression models controlled for participants' sex, age, parental family status, socio-economic position, and parental history of depression. Results Negative childhood events were associated with an increased likelihood of concurrent internalizing symptoms which sometimes persisted into adulthood (multivariate ORs associated with > = 3 negative events respectively: high and decreasing internalizing symptoms: 5.54, 95% CI: 3.20–9.58; persistently high internalizing symptoms: 8.94, 95% CI: 2.82–28.31). Specific negative events most strongly associated with youths' persistent internalizing symptoms included: school difficulties (multivariate OR: 5.31, 95% CI: 2.24–12.59), parental stress (multivariate OR: 4.69, 95% CI: 2.02–10.87), serious illness/health problems (multivariate OR: 4.13, 95% CI: 1.76–9.70), and social isolation (multivariate OR: 2.24, 95% CI: 1.00–5.08). Conclusions Common negative events can contribute to the onset of children's lasting psychological difficulties. PMID:25485875

  19. Genomic prediction of breeding values in the New Zealand sheep industry using a 50K SNP chip.

    PubMed

    Auvray, B; McEwan, J C; Newman, S-A N; Lee, M; Dodds, K G

    2014-10-01

    The aim of genomic prediction is to predict breeding value from genomic data. We describe the development of genomic prediction equations and accuracies for molecular breeding values (MBV) for industry use, focusing on the methodology used to deal with predictions for the New Zealand sheep population structure. This is made up of a mixture of pure and crossbred animals, but principally Romney based. In particular, we used pedigree-based EBV for 8 traits (weaning weight as a direct effect, weaning weight as a maternal effect, live weight at 8 mo, live weight at 12 mo, greasy fleece weight at 12 mo, lamb fleece weight, adult fleece weight, and number of lambs born) and Illumina OvineSNP50 BeadChip genotypes from 13,420 animals to investigate BLUP with different genomic relationship matrices (GRM) based on SNP markers and to investigate varying sets of older animals (training sets) to predict the MBV of younger animals (validation sets). The GRM tested included modifications to account for allele frequency differences between breeds, rescaling so that the mean GRM is equal to the mean of the traditional pedigree numerator relationship matrix A: , and combining of the GRM with A: using a convex combination with a weight estimated by maximizing a conditional restricted likelihood. We found that these modifications were beneficial and recommend using a breed-adjusted GRM combined with A: . Training data sets with Romney, Coopworth, and Perendale animals all together usually predicted better than using just a pure breed training data set for all traits. But predictions for the breed Perendale were more accurate with a Perendale training set for 3 of the 8 traits. We concluded that using a mixed-breed training set for all combinations of traits and breeds was best but advise that increasing the number of Perendale animals genotyped should be a priority to increase the MBV accuracies obtained for that breed. PMID:25149326

  20. Predictive value of cell assays for developmental toxicity and embryotoxicity of conazole fungicides.

    PubMed

    Dreisig, Karin; Taxvig, Camilla; Birkhøj Kjærstad, Mia; Nellemann, Christine; Hass, Ulla; Vinggaard, Anne Marie

    2013-01-01

    This paper evaluates in vivo predictability of a battery of in vitro tests covering developmental toxicity and embryotoxicity of five widely used conazole fungicides. The conazoles were investigated in the embryonic stem cell test, and data were compared to in vivo embryotoxicity data. The same conazoles were evaluated on the basis of data from a battery of cell assays for endocrine activity, including assays for AR, ER, AhR, and sex hormone synthesis, and data were compared to in vivo developmental toxicity data. Overall, the ranking of the five conazole fungicides based on in vitro data were in reasonably good agreement with available in vivo effects. Ketoconazole and epoxiconazole are the most potent embryotoxic compounds, whereas prochloraz belongs to the most potent developmental toxicants. In conclusion, a rough prediction of the ranking of these conazole fungicides for in vivo toxicity data was possible by a holistic evaluation of data from a panel of cell-based assays. PMID:23861077

  1. Predictive value of symptoms of atypical depression for differential drug treatment outcome.

    PubMed

    McGrath, P J; Stewart, J W; Harrison, W M; Ocepek-Welikson, K; Rabkin, J G; Nunes, E N; Wager, S G; Tricamo, E; Quitkin, F M; Klein, D F

    1992-06-01

    Data for 401 depressed outpatients with mood reactivity who participated in a randomized trial comparing placebo, imipramine, and phenelzine were analyzed for predictors of differential response by stepwise multiple regression techniques. Features of the Columbia criteria for atypical depression including oversleeping, overeating, severe anergy, and pathologic rejection sensitivity were each predictive of a poorer response to imipramine than to phenelzine only when compared to those patients with none of the features. These features were not additive in their contribution to differential outcome. Lack of endogenous features was not predictive of a differential drug treatment response. Compared with patients who have no symptoms of atypical depression, patients with any of the four features had an inferior imipramine response rather than a superior phenelzine response. These analyses indicate that the clear differential responsivity to medication treatment in atypical depression is not simply related to any one defining symptom and that further correlates of this apparent biological heterogeneity need to be explored. PMID:1629387

  2. Eye spy: the predictive value of fixation patterns in detecting subtle and extreme emotions from faces.

    PubMed

    Vaidya, Avinash R; Jin, Chenshuo; Fellows, Lesley K

    2014-11-01

    Successful social interaction requires recognizing subtle changes in the mental states of others. Deficits in emotion recognition are found in several neurological and psychiatric illnesses, and are often marked by disturbances in gaze patterns to faces, typically interpreted as a failure to fixate on emotionally informative facial features. However, there has been very little research on how fixations inform emotion recognition in healthy people. Here, we asked whether fixations predicted detection of subtle and extreme emotions in faces. We used a simple model to predict emotion detection scores from participants' fixation patterns. The best fit of this model heavily weighted fixations to the eyes in detecting subtle fear, disgust and surprise, with less weight, or zero weight, given to mouth and nose fixations. However, this model could not successfully predict detection of subtle happiness, or extreme emotional expressions, with the exception of fear. These findings argue that detection of most subtle emotions is best served by fixations to the eyes, with some contribution from nose and mouth fixations. In contrast, detection of extreme emotions and subtle happiness appeared to be less dependent on fixation patterns. The results offer a new perspective on some puzzling dissociations in the neuropsychological literature, and a novel analytic approach for the study of eye gaze in social or emotional settings. PMID:25151253

  3. HPA axis genetic variation, pubertal status, and sex interact to predict amygdala and hippocampus responses to negative emotional faces in school-age children.

    PubMed

    Pagliaccio, David; Luby, Joan L; Bogdan, Ryan; Agrawal, Arpana; Gaffrey, Michael S; Belden, Andrew C; Botteron, Kelly N; Harms, Michael P; Barch, Deanna M

    2015-04-01

    Accumulating evidence suggests a role for stress exposure, particularly during early life, and for variation in genes involved in stress response pathways in neural responsivity to emotional stimuli. Understanding how individual differences in these factors predict differences in emotional responsivity may be important for understanding both normative emotional development and for understanding the mechanisms underlying internalizing disorders, like anxiety and depression, that have often been related to increased amygdala and hippocampus responses to negatively valenced emotional stimuli. The present study examined whether stress exposure and genetic profile scores (10 single nucleotide polymorphisms within four hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis genes: CRHR1, NR3C2, NR3C1, and FKBP5) predict individual differences in amygdala and hippocampus responses to fearful vs. neutral faces in school-age children (7-12 year olds; N = 107). Experience of more stressful and traumatic life events predicted greater left amygdala responses to negative emotional stimuli. Genetic profile scores interacted with sex and pubertal status to predict amygdala and hippocampus responses. Specifically, genetic profile scores were a stronger predictor of amygdala and hippocampus responses among pubertal vs. prepubertal children where they positively predicted responses to fearful faces among pubertal girls and positively predicted responses to neutral faces among pubertal boys. The current results suggest that genetic and environmental stress-related factors may be important in normative individual differences in responsivity to negative emotional stimuli, a potential mechanism underlying internalizing disorders. Further, sex and pubertal development may be key moderators of the effects of stress-system genetic variation on amygdala and hippocampus responsivity, potentially relating to sex differences in stress-related psychopathology. PMID:25583614

  4. HPA Axis Genetic Variation, Pubertal Status, and Sex Interact to Predict Amygdala and Hippocampus Responses to Negative Emotional Faces in School-Age Children

    PubMed Central

    Pagliaccio, David; Luby, Joan L.; Bogdan, Ryan; Agrawal, Arpana; Gaffrey, Michael S.; Belden, Andrew C.; Botteron, Kelly N.; Harms, Michael P.; Barch, Deanna M.

    2015-01-01

    Accumulating evidence suggests a role for stress exposure, particularly during early life, and for variation in genes involved in stress response pathways in neural responsivity to emotional stimuli. Understanding how individual differences in these factors predict differences in emotional responsivity may be important for understanding both normative emotional development and for understanding the mechanisms underlying internalizing disorders, like anxiety and depression, that have often been related to increased amygdala and hippocampus responses to negatively valenced emotional stimuli. The present study examined whether stress exposure and genetic profile scores (10 single nucleotide polymorphisms within four hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis genes: CRHR1, NR3C2, NR3C1, and FKBP5) predict individual differences in amygdala and hippocampus responses to fearful vs. neutral faces in school-age children (7–12 year olds; N=107). Experience of more stressful and traumatic life events predicted greater left amygdala responses to negative emotional stimuli. Genetic profile scores interacted with sex and pubertal status to predict amygdala and hippocampus responses. Specifically, genetic profile scores were a stronger predictor of amygdala and hippocampus responses among pubertal vs. prepubertal children where they positively predicted responses to fearful faces among pubertal girls and positively predicted responses to neutral faces among pubertal boys. The current results suggest that genetic and environmental stress-related factors may be important in normative individual differences in responsivity to negative emotional stimuli, a potential mechanism underlying internalizing disorders. Further, sex and pubertal development may be key moderators of the effects of stress-system genetic variation on amygdala and hippocampus responsivity, potentially relating to sex differences in stress-related psychopathology. PMID:25583614

  5. Predicting Problem Behaviors with Multiple Expectancies: Expanding Expectancy-Value Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Borders, Ashley; Earleywine, Mitchell; Huey, Stanley J.

    2004-01-01

    Expectancy-value theory emphasizes the importance of outcome expectancies for behavioral decisions, but most tests of the theory focus on a single behavior and a single expectancy. However, the matching law suggests that individuals consider expected outcomes for both the target behavior and alternative behaviors when making decisions. In this…

  6. Predicting attitudes toward nanotechnology: The influence of cultural and predispositional values

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shih, Tsung-Jen

    Past experience in dealing with biotechnology has suggested that public opinion plays an important role in determining the prosperity of emerging technologies. A great amount of money and energy, therefore, were invested to understand nanotechnology's impact on the society and the public, in addition to the technical advancement of the technology. However, most studies examining public opinion have focused on personal level factors and have ignored the potential influence of cultural factors. This study addresses this gap by analyzing public opinion in 21 countries, including the US and 20 European countries. Specifically, this study examines the impact of predispositional and cultural values on public support for nanotechnology, with the mediating roles of moral judgment and risk perception accounted for. This study also looks into the dynamics between cultural values and predispositional values; that is, how cultural values may moderate the effects of predispositional values in affecting attitudes toward nanotechnology. The results indicate that people rely on "information shortcuts," such as confidence and religious belief, for decision making. Individual-level factors still play an important role in shaping public attitudes even after country-level factors are controlled. Furthermore, aggregate cultural values provide people with important "mental programs" to interpret nanotechnology. They explain why people in different cultures have different moral and risk perceptions. However, most of the cultural values do not affect public support directly, suggesting that public support is contingent greatly on the core characteristics of nanotechnology, such as its usefulness, risk, and moral acceptability, which, in turn, is influenced by personal beliefs and cultural givens. The results also suggest that people in different cultures respond to survey questions in different manners. People living in cultures emphasizing uncertainty avoidance and individualism are more

  7. Predicting Negative Life Outcomes from Early Aggressive-Disruptive Behavior Trajectories: Gender Differences in Maladaptation across Life Domains

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bradshaw, Catherine P.; Schaeffer, Cindy M.; Petras, Hanno; Ialongo, Nicholas

    2010-01-01

    Transactional theories of development suggest that displaying high levels of antisocial behavior early in life and persistently over time causes disruption in multiple life domains, which in turn places individuals at risk for negative life outcomes. We used longitudinal data from 1,137 primarily African American urban youth (49.1% female) to…

  8. The utility of MMPI-2-RF substantive scales in prediction of negative treatment outcomes in a community mental health center.

    PubMed

    Anestis, Joye C; Gottfried, Emily D; Joiner, Thomas E

    2015-02-01

    This study examined the utility of the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory-2-Restructured Form (MMPI-2-RF) substantive scales in the prediction of premature termination and therapy no-shows while controlling for other relevant predictors in a university-based community mental health center, a sample at high risk of both premature termination and no-show appointments. Participants included 457 individuals seeking services from a university-based psychology clinic. Results indicated that Juvenile Conduct Problems (JCP) predicted premature termination and Behavioral/Externalizing Dysfunction and JCP predicted number of no-shows, when accounting for initial severity of illness, personality disorder diagnosis, therapist experience, and other related MMPI-2-RF scales. The MMPI-2-RF Aesthetic-Literary Interests scale also predicted number of no-shows. Recommendations for applying these findings in clinical practice are discussed. PMID:24891426

  9. Clinical Value of Natriuretic Peptides in Predicting Time to Dialysis in Stage 4 and 5 Chronic Kidney Disease Patients

    PubMed Central

    Sundqvist, Sofia; Larson, Thomas; Cauliez, Bruno; Bauer, Fabrice; Dumont, Audrey; Le Roy, Frank; Hanoy, Mélanie; Fréguin-Bouilland, Caroline; Godin, Michel

    2016-01-01

    Background Anticipating the time to renal replacement therapy (RRT) in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients is an important but challenging issue. Natriuretic peptides are biomarkers of ventricular dysfunction related to poor outcome in CKD. We comparatively investigated the value of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) as prognostic markers for the risk of RRT in stage 4 and 5 CKD patients, and in foretelling all-cause mortality and major cardiovascular events within a 5-year follow-up period. Methods Baseline plasma BNP (Triage, Biosite) and NT-proBNP (Elecsys, Roche) were measured at inclusion. Forty-three patients were followed-up during 5 years. Kaplan-Meier analysis, with log-rank testing and hazard ratios (HR), were calculated to evaluate survival without RRT, cardiovascular events or mortality. The independent prognostic value of the biomarkers was estimated in separate Cox multivariate analysis, including estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), creatininemia and comorbidities. Results During the first 12-month follow-up period, 16 patients started RRT. NT-proBNP concentration was higher in patients who reached endpoint (3221 ng/L vs 777 ng/L, p = 0.02). NT-proBNP concentration > 1345 ng/L proved significant predictive value on survival analysis for cardiovascular events (p = 0.04) and dialysis within 60 months follow-up (p = 0.008). BNP concentration > 140 ng/L was an independent predictor of RRT after 12 months follow-up (p<0.005), and of significant predictive value for initiation of dialysis within 60 months follow-up. Conclusions Our results indicate a prognostic value for BNP and NT-proBNP in predicting RRT in stage 4 and 5 CKD patients, regarding both short- and long-term periods. NT-proBNP also proved a value in predicting cardiovascular events. Natriuretic peptides could be useful predictive biomarkers for therapeutic guidance in CKD. PMID:27548064

  10. Genetic parameters and prediction of genotypic values for root quality traits in cassava using REML/BLUP.

    PubMed

    Oliveira, E J; Santana, F A; Oliveira, L A; Santos, V S

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to estimate the genetic parameters and predict the genotypic values of root quality traits in cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz) using restricted maximum likelihood (REML) and best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP). A total of 471 cassava accessions were evaluated over two years of cultivation. The evaluated traits included amylose content (AML), root dry matter (DMC), cyanogenic compounds (CyC), and starch yield (StYi). Estimates of the individual broad-sense heritability of AML were low (hg(2) = 0.07 ± 0.02), medium for StYi and DMC, and high for CyC. The heritability of AML was substantially improved based on mean of accessions (hm(2) = 0.28), indicating that some strategies such as increasing the number of repetitions can be used to increase the selective efficiency. In general, the observed genotypic values were very close to the predicted average of the improved population, most likely due to the high accuracy (>0.90), especially for DMC, CyC, and StYi. Gains via selection of the 30 best genotypes for each trait were 4.8 and 3.2% for an increase and decrease for AML, respectively, an increase of 10.75 and 74.62% for DMC for StYi, respectively, and a decrease of 89.60% for CyC in relation to the overall mean of the genotypic values. Genotypic correlations between the quality traits of the cassava roots collected were generally favorable, although they were low in magnitude. The REML/BLUP method was adequate for estimating genetic parameters and predicting the genotypic values, making it useful for cassava breeding. PMID:25177949

  11. Prognostic Value of Metabolic Tumor Volume and Velocity in Predicting Head-and-Neck Cancer Outcomes

    SciTech Connect

    Chu, Karen P.; Murphy, James D.; La, Trang H.; Krakow, Trevor E.; Iagaru, Andrei; Graves, Edward E.; Hsu, Annie; Maxim, Peter G.; Loo, Billy; Chang, Daniel T.; Le, Quynh-Thu

    2012-08-01

    Purpose: We previously showed that metabolic tumor volume (MTV) on positron emission tomography-computed tomography (PET-CT) predicts for disease recurrence and death in head-and-neck cancer (HNC). We hypothesized that increases in MTV over time would correlate with tumor growth and biology, and would predict outcome. We sought to examine tumor growth over time in serial pretreatment PET-CT scans. Methods and Materials: From 2006 to 2009, 51 patients had two PET-CT scans before receiving HNC treatment. MTV was defined as the tumor volume {>=}50% of maximum SUV (SUV{sub max}). MTV was calculated for the primary tumor, nodal disease, and composite (primary tumor + nodes). MTV and SUV velocity were defined as the change in MTV or SUV{sub max} over time, respectively. Cox regression analyses were used to examine correlations between SUV, MTV velocity, and outcome (disease progression and overall survival). Results: The median follow-up time was 17.5 months. The median time between PET-CT scans was 3 weeks. Unexpectedly, 51% of cases demonstrated a decrease in SUV{sub max} (average, -0.1 cc/week) and MTV (average, -0.3 cc/week) over time. Despite the variability in MTV, primary tumor MTV velocity predicted disease progression (hazard ratio 2.94; p = 0.01) and overall survival (hazard ratio 1.85; p = 0.03). Conclusions: Primary tumor MTV velocity appears to be a better prognostic indicator of disease progression and survival in comparison to nodal MTV velocity. However, substantial variability was found in PET-CT biomarkers between serial scans. Caution should be used when PET-CT biomarkers are integrated into clinical protocols for HNC.

  12. Characteristics and Predictive Value of Blood Transcriptome Signature in Males with Autism Spectrum Disorders

    PubMed Central

    Shimizu-Motohashi, Yuko; Holm, Ingrid A.; Campbell, Malcolm G.; Lee, In-Hee; Brewster, Stephanie J.; Hanson, Ellen; Harris, Heather K.; Lowe, Kathryn R.; Saada, Adrianna; Mora, Andrea; Madison, Kimberly; Hundley, Rachel; Egan, Jessica; McCarthy, Jillian; Eran, Ally; Galdzicki, Michal; Rappaport, Leonard; Kunkel, Louis M.; Kohane, Isaac S.

    2012-01-01

    Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD) is a spectrum of highly heritable neurodevelopmental disorders in which known mutations contribute to disease risk in 20% of cases. Here, we report the results of the largest blood transcriptome study to date that aims to identify differences in 170 ASD cases and 115 age/sex-matched controls and to evaluate the utility of gene expression profiling as a tool to aid in the diagnosis of ASD. The differentially expressed genes were enriched for the neurotrophin signaling, long-term potentiation/depression, and notch signaling pathways. We developed a 55-gene prediction model, using a cross-validation strategy, on a sample cohort of 66 male ASD cases and 33 age-matched male controls (P1). Subsequently, 104 ASD cases and 82 controls were recruited and used as a validation set (P2). This 55-gene expression signature achieved 68% classification accuracy with the validation cohort (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC): 0.70 [95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.62–0.77]). Not surprisingly, our prediction model that was built and trained with male samples performed well for males (AUC 0.73, 95% CI 0.65–0.82), but not for female samples (AUC 0.51, 95% CI 0.36–0.67). The 55-gene signature also performed robustly when the prediction model was trained with P2 male samples to classify P1 samples (AUC 0.69, 95% CI 0.58–0.80). Our result suggests that the use of blood expression profiling for ASD detection may be feasible. Further study is required to determine the age at which such a test should be deployed, and what genetic characteristics of ASD can be identified. PMID:23227143

  13. Risk prediction models: I. Development, internal validation, and assessing the incremental value of a new (bio)marker.

    PubMed

    Moons, Karel G M; Kengne, Andre Pascal; Woodward, Mark; Royston, Patrick; Vergouwe, Yvonne; Altman, Douglas G; Grobbee, Diederick E

    2012-05-01

    Prediction models are increasingly used to complement clinical reasoning and decision making in modern medicine in general, and in the cardiovascular domain in particular. Developed models first and foremost need to provide accurate and (internally and externally) validated estimates of probabilities of specific health conditions or outcomes in targeted patients. The adoption of such models must guide physician's decision making and an individual's behaviour, and consequently improve individual outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of care. In a series of two articles we review the consecutive steps generally advocated for risk prediction model research. This first article focuses on the different aspects of model development studies, from design to reporting, how to estimate a model's predictive performance and the potential optimism in these estimates using internal validation techniques, and how to quantify the added or incremental value of new predictors or biomarkers (of whatever type) to existing predictors. Each step is illustrated with empirical examples from the cardiovascular field. PMID:22397945

  14. Using Rényi parameter to improve the predictive power of singular value decomposition entropy on stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Jiaqi; Gu, Rongbao

    2016-04-01

    This paper generalizes the method of traditional singular value decomposition entropy by incorporating orders q of Rényi entropy. We analyze the predictive power of the entropy based on trajectory matrix using Shanghai Composite Index and Dow Jones Index data in both static test and dynamic test. In the static test on SCI, results of global granger causality tests all turn out to be significant regardless of orders selected. But this entropy fails to show much predictability in American stock market. In the dynamic test, we find that the predictive power can be significantly improved in SCI by our generalized method but not in DJI. This suggests that noises and errors affect SCI more frequently than DJI. In the end, results obtained using different length of sliding window also corroborate this finding.

  15. The predictive value of semen analysis in the evaluation of stallion fertility.

    PubMed

    Colenbrander, B; Gadella, B M; Stout, T A E

    2003-08-01

    Pregnancy rates in managed horse populations depend on the innate fertility of the mares and stallions involved and on the quality of breeding management. Of course, because a single stallion usually mates many mares, stallion fertility is a critical factor in the overall success of a breeding program. Unfortunately, accurate evaluation of stallion fertility per se requires a large number of normal mares to be mated and is necessarily retrospective. Rather, the ideal is to predict fertility in advance of the stallion's breeding career, and this is currently attempted by way of a thorough physical examination and a routine analysis of semen quality. However, while such a 'breeding soundness examination' identifies stallions that clearly lack the capacity for adequate fertility, it is of limited use for predicting the level of fertility and fails to identify some seriously sub-fertile animals. Similarly, while various sperm function tests (e.g., sperm head morphometry, the hypoosmotic swelling test, glass wool-sephadex filtration, progesterone receptor exposure) have been shown to correlate fairly well with fertility in the field, most examine only a single or a narrow range of the attributes that a sperm must possess if it is to fertilize an oocyte in vivo, and are thus more useful for identifying specific causes of sub-fertility than for predicting the level of fertility. On the other hand, combining the results of the various sperm function tests does improve the reliability of fertility estimation and current research is therefore concentrated on identifying a range of tests that covers as many important sperm attributes as possible but that can be performed rapidly and cheaply. In this respect, flow-cytometry has proven to be an ideal tool because it allows the objective, rapid and simultaneous analysis of a number of properties in a large number of sperm. Moreover, stains are available for an increasing range of sperm characteristics including viability

  16. The value of remorse: how drivers' responses to police predict fines for speeding.

    PubMed

    Day, Martin V; Ross, Michael

    2011-06-01

    After they stop drivers for exceeding the speed limit, police often have the discretion to alter the penalty. We investigated the degree to which extra-legal factors (apologies and other verbal responses), in addition to speed over the limit, predict ticket costs for speeding. Surveys of speeders were conducted in the U.S. and Canada. The data suggest that what people say to police matters. Participants who reported statements of remorse, e.g., "I'm sorry," received lower fines for speeding. The relation of speeders' responses to ticket costs is discussed from legal and psychological perspectives. PMID:20556494

  17. Risk Stratification for Sudden Cardiac Death: Current Approaches and Predictive Value

    PubMed Central

    Lopera, Gustavo; Curtis, Anne B.

    2009-01-01

    Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is a serious public health problem; the annual incidence of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in North America is approximately 166,200. Identifying patients at risk is a difficult proposition. At the present time, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) remains the single most important marker for risk stratification. According to current guidelines, most patients with LVEF <35% could benefit from prophylactic ICD implantation, particularly in the setting of symptomatic heart failure. Current risk stratification strategies fail to identify patients at risk of SCD in larger population groups encompassing a greater number of potential SCD victims. However, the best approach to identifying patients and the value of various risk stratification tools is not entirely clear. The goal of this review is to discuss the problem of SCD and the value of the different risk stratification markers and their potential clinical use either alone or in combination with other risk stratification markers. PMID:20066150

  18. Prognostic significance of two sub-categorization methods for the treatment of binge eating disorder: negative affect and overvaluation predict, but do not moderate, specific outcomes.

    PubMed

    Masheb, R M; Grilo, C M

    2008-04-01

    Given the absence of known predictors and moderators for binge eating disorder (BED) treatment outcome and recent findings regarding meaningful sub-categorizations of BED patients, we tested the predictive validity of two subtyping methods. Seventy-five overweight patients with BED who participated in a randomized clinical trial of guided self-help treatments (cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBTgsh) and behavioral weight loss (BWLgsh)) were categorized in two ways. First, a cluster analytic approach yielded dietary-negative affect (29%) and pure dietary (71%) subtypes. Second, research conventions for categorizing patients based upon shape or weight self-evaluation yielded clinical overvaluation (51%) and subclinical overvaluation (49%) subtypes. At the end of treatment, participants subtyped as dietary-negative affect reported more frequent binge episodes compared to the pure dietary subtype, and those with clinical overvaluation reported greater eating disorder psychopathology compared to the subclinical overvaluation group. Neither method predicted binge remission, depressive symptoms, or weight loss. Neither sub-categorization moderated the effects of guided self-help CBT and BWL treatments on any BED outcomes, suggesting that these two specific treatments perform comparably across BED subtypes. In conclusion, dietary-negative affect subtyping and overvaluation subtyping each predicted, but did not moderate, specific and important dimensions of BED treatment outcome. PMID:18328464

  19. The strategy of psychopathy: primary psychopathic traits predict defection on low-value relationships.

    PubMed

    Gervais, Matthew M; Kline, Michelle; Ludmer, Mara; George, Rachel; Manson, Joseph H

    2013-04-22

    Recent evidence suggests that psychopathy is a trait continuum. This has unappreciated implications for understanding the selective advantage of psychopathic traits. Although clinical psychopathy is typically construed as a strategy of unconditional defection, subclinical psychopathy may promote strategic conditional defection, broadening the adaptive niche of psychopathy within human societies. To test this, we focus on a ubiquitous real-life source of conditional behaviour: the expected relational value of social partners, both in terms of their quality and the likely quantity of future interactions with them. We allow for conversational interaction among participants prior to their playing an unannounced, one-shot prisoner's dilemma game, which fosters naturalistic interpersonal evaluation and conditional behaviour, while controlling punishment and reputation effects. Individuals scoring higher on factor 1 (callous affect, interpersonal manipulation) of the Levenson self-report psychopathy scale defected conditionally on two kinds of low-value partners: those who interrupted them more during the conversation, and those with whom they failed to discover cues to future interaction. Both interaction effects support the hypothesis that subclinical primary psychopathy potentiates defection on those with low expected relational value. These data clarify the function and form of psychopathic traits, while highlighting adaptive variation in human social strategies. PMID:23446522

  20. Hierarchical cultural values predict success and mortality in high-stakes teams

    PubMed Central

    Anicich, Eric M.; Swaab, Roderick I.; Galinsky, Adam D.

    2015-01-01

    Functional accounts of hierarchy propose that hierarchy increases group coordination and reduces conflict. In contrast, dysfunctional accounts claim that hierarchy impairs performance by preventing low-ranking team members from voicing their potentially valuable perspectives and insights. The current research presents evidence for both the functional and dysfunctional accounts of hierarchy within the same dataset. Specifically, we offer empirical evidence that hierarchical cultural values affect the outcomes of teams in high-stakes environments through group processes. Experimental data from a sample of expert mountain climbers from 27 countries confirmed that climbers expect that a hierarchical culture leads to improved team coordination among climbing teams, but impaired psychological safety and information sharing compared with an egalitarian culture. An archival analysis of 30,625 Himalayan mountain climbers from 56 countries on 5,104 expeditions found that hierarchy both elevated and killed in the Himalayas: Expeditions from more hierarchical countries had more climbers reach the summit, but also more climbers die along the way. Importantly, we established the role of group processes by showing that these effects occurred only for group, but not solo, expeditions. These findings were robust to controlling for environmental factors, risk preferences, expedition-level characteristics, country-level characteristics, and other cultural values. Overall, this research demonstrates that endorsing cultural values related to hierarchy can simultaneously improve and undermine group performance. PMID:25605883

  1. The strategy of psychopathy: primary psychopathic traits predict defection on low-value relationships

    PubMed Central

    Gervais, Matthew M.; Kline, Michelle; Ludmer, Mara; George, Rachel; Manson, Joseph H.

    2013-01-01

    Recent evidence suggests that psychopathy is a trait continuum. This has unappreciated implications for understanding the selective advantage of psychopathic traits. Although clinical psychopathy is typically construed as a strategy of unconditional defection, subclinical psychopathy may promote strategic conditional defection, broadening the adaptive niche of psychopathy within human societies. To test this, we focus on a ubiquitous real-life source of conditional behaviour: the expected relational value of social partners, both in terms of their quality and the likely quantity of future interactions with them. We allow for conversational interaction among participants prior to their playing an unannounced, one-shot prisoner's dilemma game, which fosters naturalistic interpersonal evaluation and conditional behaviour, while controlling punishment and reputation effects. Individuals scoring higher on factor 1 (callous affect, interpersonal manipulation) of the Levenson self-report psychopathy scale defected conditionally on two kinds of low-value partners: those who interrupted them more during the conversation, and those with whom they failed to discover cues to future interaction. Both interaction effects support the hypothesis that subclinical primary psychopathy potentiates defection on those with low expected relational value. These data clarify the function and form of psychopathic traits, while highlighting adaptive variation in human social strategies. PMID:23446522

  2. Hierarchical cultural values predict success and mortality in high-stakes teams.

    PubMed

    Anicich, Eric M; Swaab, Roderick I; Galinsky, Adam D

    2015-02-01

    Functional accounts of hierarchy propose that hierarchy increases group coordination and reduces conflict. In contrast, dysfunctional accounts claim that hierarchy impairs performance by preventing low-ranking team members from voicing their potentially valuable perspectives and insights. The current research presents evidence for both the functional and dysfunctional accounts of hierarchy within the same dataset. Specifically, we offer empirical evidence that hierarchical cultural values affect the outcomes of teams in high-stakes environments through group processes. Experimental data from a sample of expert mountain climbers from 27 countries confirmed that climbers expect that a hierarchical culture leads to improved team coordination among climbing teams, but impaired psychological safety and information sharing compared with an egalitarian culture. An archival analysis of 30,625 Himalayan mountain climbers from 56 countries on 5,104 expeditions found that hierarchy both elevated and killed in the Himalayas: Expeditions from more hierarchical countries had more climbers reach the summit, but also more climbers die along the way. Importantly, we established the role of group processes by showing that these effects occurred only for group, but not solo, expeditions. These findings were robust to controlling for environmental factors, risk preferences, expedition-level characteristics, country-level characteristics, and other cultural values. Overall, this research demonstrates that endorsing cultural values related to hierarchy can simultaneously improve and undermine group performance. PMID:25605883

  3. Predictive Value of Neutrophil Lymphocyte Ratio and Platelet Lymphocyte Ratio in Patients with Coronary Slow Flow

    PubMed Central

    Çetin, Mustafa; Kiziltunc, Emrullah; Elalmış, Özgül Uçar; Çetin, Zehra Güven; Demirçelik, Muhammed Bora; Çiçekçioğlu, Hülya; Kurtul, Alparslan; Özkan, Selçuk; Avan, Candan Mansuroğlu; Örnek, Ender; Ulusoy, Feridun Vasfi

    2016-01-01

    Background Increased microvascular resistance due to chronic inflammation is assumed to be one of the mechanisms associated with coronary slow flow (CSF). Previous studies have shown that the platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) are markers of inflammation for various diseases. In this study we aimed to evaluate the relationship between CSF and PLR-NLR. Methods Seventy-eight patients with CSF and 50 patients with normal coronary flow were enrolled into this study. The study subjects underwent medical examination and testing, after which their platelet-to-lymphocyte ratios and NLR values were calculated. An independent observer measured the coronary flow rate by Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction Frame Count (TFC) method. The platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio and NLR values were compared between the groups and correlation analysis was performed to explore the relationship between mean TFC with PLR and NLR. Results Platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio and NLR values were significantly higher in patients with CSF (p < 0.001). There was a positive significant correlation between TFC with NLR and PLR (Spearman’s Rho: 0.59, p < 0.001 and Spearman’s Rho: 0.30, p = 0.001, respectively). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that NLR is the one independent predictor for CSF. Conclusions This study demonstrated an association between CSF and PLR-NLR. Although the exact mechanism could not be explained, our findings support the possible role of inflammation in CSF physiopathology. PMID:27274171

  4. The predictive value of arterial stiffness on major adverse cardiovascular events in individuals with mildly impaired renal function

    PubMed Central

    Han, Jie; Wang, Xiaona; Ye, Ping; Cao, Ruihua; Yang, Xu; Xiao, Wenkai; Zhang, Yun; Bai, Yongyi; Wu, Hongmei

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Despite growing evidence that arterial stiffness has important predictive value for cardiovascular disease in patients with advanced stages of chronic kidney disease, the predictive significance of arterial stiffness in individuals with mildly impaired renal function has not been established. The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive value of arterial stiffness on cardiovascular disease in this specific population. Materials and methods We analyzed measurements of arterial stiffness (carotid–femoral pulse-wave velocity [cf-PWV]) and the incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in 1,499 subjects from a 4.8-year longitudinal study. Results A multivariate Cox proportional-hazard regression analysis showed that in individuals with normal renal function (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] ≥90 mL/min/1.73 m2), the baseline cf-PWV was not associated with occurrence of MACEs (hazard ratio 1.398, 95% confidence interval 0.748–2.613; P=0.293). In individuals with mildly impaired renal function (eGFR <90 mL/min/1.73 m2), a higher baseline cf-PWV level was associated with a higher risk of MACEs (hazard ratio 2.334, 95% confidence interval 1.082–5.036; P=0.031). Conclusion Arterial stiffness is a moderate and independent predictive factor for MACEs in individuals with mildly impaired renal function (eGFR <90 mL/min/1.73 m2). PMID:27621605

  5. Personality at Face Value: Facial Appearance Predicts Self and Other Personality Judgments among Strangers and Spouses

    PubMed Central

    Petrican, Raluca; Todorov, Alexander; Grady, Cheryl

    2016-01-01

    Character judgments, based on facial appearance, impact both perceivers’ and targets’ interpersonal decisions and behaviors. Nonetheless, the resilience of such effects in the face of longer acquaintanceship duration is yet to be determined. To address this question, we had 51 elderly long-term married couples complete self and informant versions of a Big Five Inventory. Participants were also photographed, while they were requested to maintain an emotionally neutral expression. A subset of the initial sample completed a shortened version of the Big Five Inventory in response to the pictures of other opposite sex participants (with whom they were unacquainted). Oosterhof and Todorov’s (2008) computer-based model of face evaluation was used to generate facial trait scores on trustworthiness, dominance, and attractiveness, based on participants’ photographs. Results revealed that structural facial characteristics, suggestive of greater trustworthiness, predicted positively biased, global informant evaluations of a target’s personality, among both spouses and strangers. Among spouses, this effect was impervious to marriage length. There was also evidence suggestive of a Dorian Gray effect on personality, since facial trustworthiness predicted not only spousal and stranger, but also self-ratings of extraversion. Unexpectedly, though, follow-up analyses revealed that (low) facial dominance, rather than (high) trustworthiness, was the strongest predictor of self-rated extraversion. Our present findings suggest that subtle emotional cues, embedded in the structure of emotionally neutral faces, exert long-lasting effects on personality judgments even among very well-acquainted targets and perceivers. PMID:27330234

  6. Poverty, household chaos, and interparental aggression predict children’s ability to recognize and modulate negative emotions

    PubMed Central

    Raver, C. Cybele; Blair, Clancy; Garrett-Peters, Patricia

    2015-01-01

    The following prospective longitudinal study considers the ways that protracted exposure to verbal and physical aggression between parents may take a substantial toll on emotional adjustment for 1,025 children followed from 6 to 58 months of age. Exposure to chronic poverty from infancy to early childhood as well as multiple measures of household chaos were also included as predictors of children’s ability to recognize and modulate negative emotions in order to disentangle the role of interparental conflict from the socioeconomic forces that sometimes accompany it. Analyses revealed that exposure to greater levels of interparental conflict, more chaos in the household, and a higher number of years in poverty can be empirically distinguished as key contributors to 58-month-olds’ ability to recognize and modulate negative emotion. Implications for models of experiential canalization of emotional processes within the context of adversity are discussed. PMID:25215541

  7. Predictive value of arterial ammonia for complications and outcome in acute liver failure

    PubMed Central

    Bhatia, V; Singh, R; Acharya, S K

    2006-01-01

    Background and aim In acute liver failure (ALF), the brain is exposed to high levels of ammonia. Human studies defining the clinical significance of ammonia in ALF are lacking. This prospective study evaluated the relationship of arterial ammonia levels at admission to complications and survival among patients with ALF. Methods Eighty consecutive ALF patients admitted from March 2001 to December 2003 were followed up until death or complete recovery. All had arterial ammonia estimation at admission (enzymatic method). Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent predictors of mortality. Results Forty two (52.5%) patients died. Non‐survivors had significantly higher median ammonia levels than survivors (174.7 v 105.0 μmol/l; p<0.001). An arterial ammonia level of ⩾ 124 μmol/l was found to predict mortality with 78.6% sensitivity and 76.3% specificity, and had 77.5% diagnostic accuracy. Patients with higher ammonia levels also developed more complications, including deeper encephalopathy (p = 0.055), cerebral oedema (p = 0.020), need for ventilation (p<0.001), and seizures (p = 0.006). Logistic regression analysis showed that pH, presence of cerebral oedema, and arterial ammonia at admission were independent predictors of mortality (odds ratios 6.6, 12.6, and 10.9, respectively). Incorporating these variables, a score predicting mortality risk at admission was derived: 2.53 + 2.91 ammonia + 2.41 oedema + 1.40 pH, where ammonia is scored as 0 (if <124 μmol/l) or 1 (if ⩾124 μmol/l); oedema is scored as 0 (absent) or 1(present); and pH is scored as 1 (if ⩽7.40) or 0 (if >7.40). Levels of partial pressure of ammonia were equally correlated with outcome. Conclusion Arterial ammonia at presentation is predictive of outcome and can be used for risk stratification. Ammonia lowering therapies in patients with ALF should be evaluated. PMID:16024550

  8. The role of chronic pain and current substance use in predicting negative social support among disadvantaged persons living with HIV/AIDS.

    PubMed

    Mitchell, Mary M; Maragh-Bass, Allysha C; Nguyen, Trang Q; Isenberg, Sarina; Knowlton, Amy R

    2016-10-01

    Chronic pain and substance use can strain the supportive relationships of persons with serious chronic illness, which may increase the likelihood of receiving negative, rather than positive, social support from informal caregivers and social network members. To our knowledge, this is the first study to longitudinally examine the effects of chronic pain and substance use on negative social support. The sample (N = 383) comprised disadvantaged, primarily African-American, persons living with HIV/AIDS with a history of injection drug use, 32.4% of whom reported frequent or constant pain in the prior 6 months. Using factor analysis and structural equation modeling, current substance use and greater levels of chronic pain positively predicted negative social support 12 months later, after controlling for baseline negative support, viral load, age and sex. We also found a significant interaction effect such that among those not using substances, there was a significant positive association between pain and negative support, but no such association among those currently using substances. The findings emphasize the importance of treatment of chronic pain and substance use in the supportive functioning of social networks of a disadvantaged population with serious chronic conditions and persistent health disparities. PMID:27050708

  9. Measuring and predicting Delta(vap)H298 values of ionic liquids.

    PubMed

    Deyko, Alexey; Lovelock, Kevin R J; Corfield, Jo-Anne; Taylor, Alasdair W; Gooden, Peter N; Villar-Garcia, Ignacio J; Licence, Peter; Jones, Robert G; Krasovskiy, Vladimir G; Chernikova, Elena A; Kustov, Leonid M

    2009-10-14

    We report the enthalpies of vaporisation (measured using temperature programmed desorption by mass spectrometry) of twelve ionic liquids (ILs), covering four imidazolium, [C(m)C(n)Im]+, five pyrrolidinium, [C(n)C(m)Pyrr]+, two pyridinium, [C(n)Py]+, and a dication, [C3(C1Im)2]2+ based IL. These cations were paired with a range of anions: [BF4]-, [FeCl4]-, [N(CN)2]-, [PF3(C2F5)3]- ([FAP]-), [(CF3SO2)2N]- ([Tf2N]-) and [SCN]-. Using these results, plus those for a further eight imidazolium based ILs published earlier (which include the anions [CF3SO3]- ([TfO]-), [PF6]- and [EtSO4]-), we show that the enthalpies of vaporisation can be decomposed into three components. The first component is the Coulombic interaction between the ions, DeltaU(Cou,R), which is a function of the IL molar volume, V(m), and a parameter R(r) which quantifies the relative change in anion-cation distance on evaporation from the liquid phase to the ion pair in the gas phase. The second and third components are the van der Waals contributions from the anion, DeltaH(vdw,A), and the cation, DeltaH(vdw,C). We derive a universal value for R(r), and individual values of DeltaH(vdw,A) and DeltaH(vdw,C) for each of the anions and cations considered in this study. Given the molar volume, it is possible to estimate the enthalpies of vaporisation of ILs composed of any combination of the ions considered here; values for fourteen ILs which have not yet been studied experimentally are given. PMID:19774286

  10. Reliability of internal prediction/estimation and its application. I. Adaptive action selection reflecting reliability of value function.

    PubMed

    Sakaguchi, Yutaka; Takano, Mitsuo

    2004-09-01

    This article proposes an adaptive action-selection method for a model-free reinforcement learning system, based on the concept of the 'reliability of internal prediction/estimation'. This concept is realized using an internal variable, called the Reliability Index (RI), which estimates the accuracy of the internal estimator. We define this index for a value function of a temporal difference learning system and substitute it for the temperature parameter of the Boltzmann action-selection rule. Accordingly, the weight of exploratory actions adaptively changes depending on the uncertainty of the prediction. We use this idea for tabular and weighted-sum type value functions. Moreover, we use the RI to adjust the learning coefficient in addition to the temperature parameter, meaning that the reliability becomes a general basis for meta-learning. Numerical experiments were performed to examine the behavior of the proposed method. The RI-based Q-learning system demonstrated its features when the adaptive learning coefficient and large RI-discount rate (which indicate how the RI values of future states are reflected in the RI value of the current state) were introduced. Statistical tests confirmed that the algorithm spent more time exploring in the initial phase of learning, but accelerated learning from the midpoint of learning. It is also shown that the proposed method does not work well with the actor-critic models. The limitations of the proposed method and its relationship to relevant research are discussed. PMID:15312837

  11. [Treatment of bacterial pneumonias with cefuroxime-axetil. Predictive value of measurement of the in vitro susceptibility].

    PubMed

    Cluzel, R; Portier, H; Modaï, J

    1996-03-01

    Cefuroxime axetil is an oral cephalosporin with proven efficacy in adult lower respiratory tract infections. Indeed, it has a broad spectrum of activity in vitro, covering most pathogens isolated in this setting and showing good stability in the presence of betalactamases. In vitro susceptibility data are a major element in the choice of antimicrobial agent. The aim of this study was to determine the predictive value of the cefuroxime minimal inhibitory concentration (MIC) on the clinical outcome of infections treated with cefuroxime axetil. One hundred-and-seventeen (117) patients with radiologically confirmed community-acquired pneumonia of presumed bacterial origin were enrolled in a prospective multicenter trial of cefuroxime axetil therapy (500 mg twice daily). The pathogen was identified in 44 patients who were treated for a mean of 8.8 days. Most isolates were S. pneumoniae (65.9%) and H. influenzae (15.9%). The MIC was known for 35 isolates and was < or = 4 micrograms/ml in 30 cases (85.7%). The MIC value was a good predictor of clinical efficacy with a sensitivity of 100%, a specificity of 83% and a positive predictive value of 97%; the latter value indicates that therapeutic success is virtually certain when the bacterium causing pneumonia is susceptible to cefuroxime. PMID:8761613

  12. Comparison of IEUBK model predictions and actual blood lead values at a former battery recycling site.

    PubMed

    Lewandowski, T A; Forslund, B L

    1994-12-01

    This paper presents an evaluation of US EPA's integrated exposureuptake biokinetic model for lead (IEUBK model) using data obtained during emergency removal operations at a former lead-acid battery recycling plant and the surrounding community. Data employed in the study include soil lead and interior dust lead, air lead levels collected at the site perimeter, drinking water lead levels at the community water main and blood lead data collected from an annual blood lead monitoring programme conducted over a four year period during the remediation activities.Geometric mean soil and dust concentrations were found to be a better predictor of blood lead than arithmetic mean data. However, weight based dust lead data were believed to be an inappropriate measure of dust lead levels. Estimates of household dust lead concentrations based upon surface loading data (μg m(-2)) yielded blood lead predictions which were more consistent with data collected in the blood lead monitoring programme. PMID:24197215

  13. Prognostic and predictive value of MET deregulation in non-small cell lung cancer

    PubMed Central

    Toschi, Luca; Gianoncelli, Letizia; Baretti, Marina; Santoro, Armando

    2015-01-01

    Recent progress in cancer biology has led to the discovery of increasing number of oncogene alterations that have dramatically changed the paradigm of lung cancer treatment. MET is a tyrosine kinase receptor for the hepatocyte growth factor (HGF) that is deregulated in several malignancies, including non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Abnormal MET-HGF signaling pathway activation can occur via different mechanisms, including HGF and/or MET overexpression, MET gene amplification, mutations or rearrangements. MET protein overexpression and increased MET gene number have been identified as poor prognostic factors in several series of surgically resected NSCLC making this receptor an attractive target for cancer treatment. Several clinical trials have recently evaluated the activity of a variety of anti-MET strategies in NSCLC patients with or without molecular selection with a variable degree of success, underscoring the need of establishing the best predictive biomarker for the identification of responding patients. PMID:25992382

  14. The value of high-resolution prediction of weather and crop productivity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcia-Carreras, Luis; Challinor, Andrew J.; Parkes, Ben J.

    2013-04-01

    Global climate and weather models are a key tool for the prediction of future crop productivity. Convective rainfall systems are too spatially small to be resolved by any current global model and must therefore be parameterised. Parameterisations of convection, however, all exhibit common deficiencies in the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall when compared to observations. Generally, rainfall peaks too early in the day (midday as opposed to the evening) and is too weak and widespread compared to the intense, localized storms which occur in reality. Because the simulated cloud cover is maximized at a different time of day compared to reality there are also knock-on effects on the mean incoming radiation and surface temperatures. Previous modelling studies over West Africa have also shown that these errors can upscale to affect the intensity and structure of the entire regional-scale monsoon circulation. All these factors constitute a significant source of error for any crop model that depends on inputs from global models in order to determine regional scale yields. Furthermore, as these errors are likely to be similar in all global models, they will not be captured in the uncertainty derived from existing climate model intercomparisons. In this study the General Large Area Model for annual crops (GLAM) is driven by Met Office Unified Model atmospheric data from regional-scale simulations of one cropping season over West Africa at different resolutions (40 and 12km with parameterised convection, 12 and 4km with resolved convection). These are used to assess the impact of both model resolution and the use of a parameterisation of convection on the prediction of groundnut yields. The use of two runs with the same resolution but a different representation of convection allows us to separate the impact of resolution from the parameterisation. Observed regional crop yield returns are used to evaluate the skill of the crop model output from the different runs.

  15. Value of medium range weather forecasts in the improvement of seasonal hydrologic prediction skill

    SciTech Connect

    Shukla, Shraddhanand; Voisin, Nathalie; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2012-08-15

    We investigated the contribution of medium range weather forecasts with lead times up to 14 days to seasonal hydrologic prediction skill over the Conterminous United States (CONUS). Three different Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)-based experiments were performed for the period 1980-2003 using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model to generate forecasts of monthly runoff and soil moisture (SM) at lead-1 (first month of the forecast period) to lead-3. The first experiment (ESP) used a resampling from the retrospective period 1980-2003 and represented full climatological uncertainty for the entire forecast period. In the second and third experiments, the first 14 days of each ESP ensemble member were replaced by either observations (perfect 14-day forecast) or by a deterministic 14-day weather forecast. We used Spearman rank correlations of forecasts and observations as the forecast skill score. We estimated the potential and actual improvement in baseline skill as the difference between the skill of experiments 2 and 3 relative to ESP, respectively. We found that useful runoff and SM forecast skill at lead-1 to -3 months can be obtained by exploiting medium range weather forecast skill in conjunction with the skill derived by the knowledge of initial hydrologic conditions. Potential improvement in baseline skill by using medium range weather forecasts, for runoff (SM) forecasts generally varies from 0 to 0.8 (0 to 0.5) as measured by differences in correlations, with actual improvement generally from 0 to 0.8 of the potential improvement. With some exceptions, most of the improvement in runoff is for lead-1 forecasts, although some improvement in SM was achieved at lead-2.

  16. Predicting Falls in Parkinson Disease: What Is the Value of Instrumented Testing in OFF Medication State?

    PubMed Central

    Hoskovcová, Martina; Dušek, Petr; Sieger, Tomáš; Brožová, Hana; Zárubová, Kateřina; Bezdíček, Ondřej; Šprdlík, Otakar; Jech, Robert; Štochl, Jan; Roth, Jan; Růžička, Evžen

    2015-01-01

    Background Falls are a common complication of advancing Parkinson's disease (PD). Although numerous risk factors are known, reliable predictors of future falls are still lacking. The objective of this prospective study was to investigate clinical and instrumented tests of balance and gait in both OFF and ON medication states and to verify their utility in the prediction of future falls in PD patients. Methods Forty-five patients with idiopathic PD were examined in defined OFF and ON medication states within one examination day including PD-specific clinical tests, instrumented Timed Up and Go test (iTUG) and computerized dynamic posturography. The same gait and balance tests were performed in 22 control subjects of comparable age and sex. Participants were then followed-up for 6 months using monthly fall diaries and phone calls. Results During the follow-up period, 27/45 PD patients and 4/22 control subjects fell one or more times. Previous falls, fear of falling, more severe motor impairment in the OFF state, higher PD stage, more pronounced depressive symptoms, higher daily levodopa dose and stride time variability in the OFF state were significant risk factors for future falls in PD patients. Increased stride time variability in the OFF state in combination with faster walking cadence appears to be the most significant predictor of future falls, superior to clinical predictors. Conclusion Incorporating instrumented gait measures into the baseline assessment battery as well as accounting for both OFF and ON medication states might improve future fall prediction in PD patients. However, instrumented testing in the OFF state is not routinely performed in clinical practice and has not been used in the development of fall prevention programs in PD. New assessment methods for daylong monitoring of gait, balance and falls are thus required to more effectively address the risk of falling in PD patients. PMID:26443998

  17. Short and long term predictive value of admission wall motion score in acute myocardial infarction. A cross sectional echocardiographic study of 345 patients.

    PubMed Central

    Kan, G; Visser, C A; Koolen, J J; Dunning, A J

    1986-01-01

    A score of left ventricular segmental wall motion was used as a convenient rapid way to assess overall left ventricular function in acute myocardial infarction. Its success in risk stratification at admission was assessed by a blind review of cross sectional echocardiographic tape recordings from multiple acoustic windows. Sixty nine (20%) of the 345 patients died during hospital stay or within a one year follow up. The mean (SD) wall motion score in those who died was significantly higher than in those who survived (16.2 (5.9) vs 5.7 (3.9)). There were no differences between the group that died in hospital within three months of discharge and the group that died between three months and one year after discharge. Among the 31 patients who died in hospital, however, wall motion score was highest in 15 patients dying of cardiogenic shock (19.2 (4.2)). In 16 patients with lethal ruptures it was 13.5 (6.1). The nine patients with free wall ruptures had higher wall motion scores than those with ventricular septal rupture or papillary muscle rupture (15.7 (6.9) vs 8.5 (5.3)). Eight (3.3%) of 245 patients with a score less than 10 died, compared with 61 (61%) of 100 scoring greater than or equal to 10. The sensitivity of a score of greater than or equal to 10 in predicting death within one year was 88%, the specificity was 86%, the positive predictive value was 61%, and the negative predictive value was 97%. PMID:3790378

  18. The predictive value of plasma biomarkers in discharged heart failure patients: the role of plasma BNP.

    PubMed

    Beltrami, Matteo; Palazzuoli, Alberto; Ruocco, Gaetano; Aspromonte, Nadia

    2016-04-01

    To date, heart failure (HF) prognosis is still difficult: symptoms and signs are often non-specific, and poor sensitive indicators for HF severity. Brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) is now included in the current guidelines for HF diagnosis, management and risk assessment because of its high specificity and sensibility. BNP became a first-line exam in HF patients' evaluation at hospital admission together with clinical and chest X-ray. In discharged patients, the prognostic role of BNP is associated with decongestion and its significant reduction compared to admission level appears one of the best outcome predictors. In fact BNP measurement could identify patients with increased risk of adverse events and left ventricular remodeling. Although a single BNP value assay and the absolute value during hospitalization is related to the prognosis, especially at discharge. On the other hand, hormone levels could be influenced by several factors (i.e., renal dysfunction, anemia, age, liver insufficiency, Body Mass Index) independently from systemic and pulmonary congestion. Therefore, a new approach which considers a multimodality strategy including BNP assay among the traditional clinical examination and imaging studies should be routinely encouraged to better define cardiac dysfunction's etiology and severity, as well as to recognize patients at risk of adverse outcome. PMID:26474369

  19. Negative Urgency and Lack of Perseverance: Identification of Differential Pathways of Onset and Maintenance Risk in the Longitudinal Prediction of Nonsuicidal Self-Injury.

    PubMed

    Riley, Elizabeth N; Combs, Jessica L; Jordan, Carol E; Smith, Gregory T

    2015-07-01

    Many researchers have identified impulsivity-related personality traits as correlates of and risk factors for nonsuicidal self-injury (NSSI). Using a longitudinal design, we tested the hypothesis that one such trait, negative urgency (the tendency to act rashly when distressed), predicts the onset of NSSI during the first year of college and a different trait, lack of perseverance (the disposition to fail to maintain focus on tasks that are difficult or boring), predicts the maintenance of NSSI during the first year of college. In a sample of n=1,158 college women (mean age=18.04, 95% of participants were 18 at Time 1), we found support for these hypotheses. Negative urgency, measured prior to college entry, predicted the onset of NSSI behavior across the first year of college (odds ratio=1.58). Lack of perseverance predicted the maintenance of NSSI status across the first year of college, controlling for prior NSSI behavior (odds ratio=1.73). These findings indicate that different impulsivity-related personality traits may play different roles in the risk process for NSSI. PMID:26163709

  20. Incremental Predictive Value of Serum AST-to-ALT Ratio for Incident Metabolic Syndrome: The ARIRANG Study

    PubMed Central

    Ahn, Song Vogue; Baik, Soon Koo; Cho, Youn zoo; Koh, Sang Baek; Huh, Ji Hye; Chang, Yoosoo; Sung, Ki-Chul; Kim, Jang Young

    2016-01-01

    Aims The ratio of aspartate aminotransferase (AST) to alanine aminotransferase (ALT) is of great interest as a possible novel marker of metabolic syndrome. However, longitudinal studies emphasizing the incremental predictive value of the AST-to-ALT ratio in diagnosing individuals at higher risk of developing metabolic syndrome are very scarce. Therefore, our study aimed to evaluate the AST-to-ALT ratio as an incremental predictor of new onset metabolic syndrome in a population-based cohort study. Material and Methods The population-based cohort study included 2276 adults (903 men and 1373 women) aged 40–70 years, who participated from 2005–2008 (baseline) without metabolic syndrome and were followed up from 2008–2011. Metabolic syndrome was defined according to the harmonized definition of metabolic syndrome. Serum concentrations of AST and ALT were determined by enzymatic methods. Results During an average follow-up period of 2.6-years, 395 individuals (17.4%) developed metabolic syndrome. In a multivariable adjusted model, the odds ratio (95% confidence interval) for new onset of metabolic syndrome, comparing the fourth quartile to the first quartile of the AST-to-ALT ratio, was 0.598 (0.422–0.853). The AST-to-ALT ratio also improved the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for predicting new cases of metabolic syndrome (0.715 vs. 0.732, P = 0.004). The net reclassification improvement of prediction models including the AST-to-ALT ratio was 0.23 (95% CI: 0.124–0.337, P<0.001), and the integrated discrimination improvement was 0.0094 (95% CI: 0.0046–0.0143, P<0.001). Conclusions The AST-to-ALT ratio independently predicted the future development of metabolic syndrome and had incremental predictive value for incident metabolic syndrome. PMID:27560931

  1. Characterization and Predictive Value of Near Infrared 2-Deoxyglucose Optical Imaging in Severe Acute Pancreatitis

    PubMed Central

    de Oliveira, Cristiane; Patel, Krutika; Mishra, Vivek; Trivedi, Ram N.; Noel, Pawan; Singh, Abhilasha; Yaron, Jordan R.; Singh, Vijay P.

    2016-01-01

    concentrations and mortality, which were not predicted by the blood parameters. Conclusion In-vivo fluorescent imaging of a non-radioactive near infrared 2-DG optical probe can predict the AP severity early during the disease. PMID:26901564

  2. Assessing "economic value": symbolic-number mappings predict risky and riskless valuations.

    PubMed

    Schley, Dan R; Peters, Ellen

    2014-03-01

    Diminishing marginal utility (DMU) is a basic tenet of economic and psychological models of judgment and choice, but its determinants are little understood. In the research reported here, we tested whether insensitivities in valuations of dollar amounts (e.g., $40, $100) may be due to inexact mappings of symbolic numbers (i.e., "40," "100") onto mental magnitudes. In three studies, we demonstrated that inexact mappings appear to guide valuation and mediate numeracy's relations with riskless valuations (Studies 1 and 1a) and risky choices (Study 2). The results highlight the fundamental notion that individuals' valuations of $100 depend critically on how individuals perceive and map the symbolic quantity "100." This notion has implications for conceptualizations of value, risk aversion, intertemporal choice, and dual-process theories of decision making. Normative implications are also briefly discussed. PMID:24452604

  3. Predictive value of determinations of zinc protoporphyrin for increased blood lead concentrations.

    PubMed

    Froom, P; Kristal-Boneh, E; Benbassat, J; Ashkanazi, R; Ribak, J

    1998-06-01

    Blood lead (PbB) and red cell zinc protoporphyrin (ZPP) concentrations are widely used biomarkers for lead toxicity. It is uncertain, however, whether either or both are needed for monitoring lead exposure and how discordant PbB and ZPP values should be interpreted. We reviewed the results of PbB and ZPP determinations in 94 workers in a lead-battery plant over a 13-year period and retrieved all 807 sets of tests in which both PbB and ZPP were available, with a follow-up PbB value 6 months later. PbB exceeded 1.93 micromol/L (40 microg/dL) in 414 (51%), and 2.90 micromol/L (60 microg/dL) in 105 (14%) of the blood samples. We derived the test properties of various ZPP concentrations for concurrent "toxic" PbB concentrations, defined as > or = 1.93 and 2.90 micromol/L (40 and 60 microg/dL). The results indicated that, given a population of lead-exposed workers with a 10% prevalence of PbB of > or = 2.90 micromol/L (60 microg/dL), a policy of testing PbB only in those with ZPP > 0.71 micromol/L (40 microg/dL) would obviate 42% of the PbB tests, but would miss about three cases with toxic PbB concentrations in every 200 workers at risk. A finding of increased ZPP concentrations with a concurrent "nontoxic" PbB was associated with an increased risk of a toxic PbB concentration 6 months later. We conclude that (a) screening by testing only ZPP does not safeguard exposed persons against lead toxicity, and (b) the frequency of PbB monitoring should be guided by estimates of the risk of future lead toxicity in individual workers. PMID:9625054

  4. Short-term foreshock activity and its value for the earthquake prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Orfanogiannaki, Katerina; Daskalaki, Elena; Minadakis, George; Papadopoulos, Gerasimos

    2014-05-01

    Seismicity often occurs in space-time clusters: swarms, short-term foreshocks, aftershocks. Swarms are space-time clusters that do not conclude with a mainshock. Earthquake statistics shows that in areas of good seismicity monitoring foreshocks precede sizeable (M5.5 or more) mainshocks at a rate of about half percent. Therefore, discrimination between foreshocks and swarms is of crucial importance with the aim to use foreshocks as a diagnostic of forthcoming strong mainshock in real-time conditions. We analyzed seismic sequences in Greece and Italy with the application of our algorithm FORMA (Foreshocks-Mainshock-Aftershocks) and discriminate between foreshocks and swarms based on the seismicity significant changes in the space-time-magnitude domains. We support that different statistical properties is a diagnostic of foreshocks (e.g. b-value drop) against swarms (b-value increase). A complementary approach is based on the development of Poisson Hidden Markov Models (PHMM's) which are introduced to model significant temporal seismicity changes. In a PHMM the unobserved sequence of states is a finite-state Markov chain and the distribution of the observation at any time is Poissonian with rate depending only on the current state of the chain. Thus, PHMM allows a region to have varying seismicity rate. PHMM is a promising diagnostic since the transition from one state to another does not only depend on the total number of events involved but also on the current state of the system. A third methodological experiment was performed based on the complex network theory. We found that the earthquake networks examined form a scale-free degree distribution. By computing their basic statistical measures, such as the Average Clustering Coefficient, Mean Path Length and Entropy, we found that they underline the strong space-time clustering of swarms, foreshocks and aftershocks but also their important differences. Therefore, network theory is an additional, promising tool to

  5. Alpha-fetoprotein and its value for predicting pregnancy outcomes – a re-evaluation

    PubMed Central

    Darouich, Ayham Alhaj; Liehr, Thomas; Weise, Anja; Schlembach, Dietmar; Schleußner, Ekkehart; Kiehntopf, Michael; Schreyer, Isolde

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) concentrations can be determined framing others from invasively acquired amnion fluid (AF-AFP). While the biological role of AFP remains unclear it is well known that AFP-levels can be altered in connection with specific clinical and/or genetic alterations of the fetus. Materials and Method here a retrospective study based on 3,119 singleton and 56 twin pregnancies is presented. The standard levels of amnion fluid derived alpha-fetoprotein level (AF-AFP) between 12th and 36th weeks of gestation were determined. Additionally, acetylcholinesterase (AChE) test results for 63 cases, ultrasonography results for 32 cases and abnormal karyotypic findings for 100 cases were available for selected cases. Results and Discussion according to the present data the AF-AFP test is reliable and provides expected test results in terms of population studies. However, individual AF-AFP test results can be subject to high individual variations. In this study AF-AFP multiple of medians (MoM) over 1.7 were indicative for neuronal tube defects and/or omphalocele in only 6.3% of the cases, while such AF-AFP values were hints on severe sonographic signs in 62% of the cases. Also, altered AF-AFP concentrations were present in 82% of cytogenetically abnormal cases. Overall, even though predicative value of the AF-AFP-test is matter of discussion it continues to be widely applied in invasive prenatal diagnostics. This study indicates that it only can be applied reliably in combination with other tests like banding cytogenetics, ultrasonography and all embedded in well-established genetic counseling. PMID:27358693

  6. Value of Computed Tomography for Predicting the Outcome After Percutaneous Nephrolithotomy

    PubMed Central

    Shaker, Hassan; Ismail, Mohamed Ali Ahmed; Kamal, Ahmed M.; Safa, Mohamed; Refaat, Hisham; Abdelsalam, Ahmed; Badawy, Mohamed H.; Elganzoury, Hossam; Elkhouly, Amr; Ghobashy, Samir; Elesaily, Khalid; Eldahshan, Samoir; Nour, Hani H.

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Computerized tomography of the urinary tract (CT-UT) has been established as the diagnostic procedure of choice for urinary stones. This study aimed to evaluate its role in predicting the outcome of percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL) in terms of stone free rate and residual fragments. Method This prospective cohort study was conducted on 34 patients in the Urology Department of Theodor Bilharz Research Institute from January 2013 to March 2014. The patients who had large and/or multiple renal stones, including staghorn stones, in 19 renal units scheduled for PCNL were included in this study. All had a pre-operative CT-UT to determine the stones’ characteristics and renal anatomy. CT-UT, together with a kidney-Ureter-Bladder (KUB) film, was taken on the first post-operative day. The data were analyzed by SPSS version 17 using independent-samples t-test and the chi-squared test. Results CT-UT showed a statistical significant sensitivity in detecting residual fragments over standard KUB, yet this significance was lost when corrected to significant residual. Stone size and density were independent factors for the presence of residual stones. Conclusion CT-UT post PCNL was sensitive to detect residual fragments, yet it showed no superiority over standard KUB in detecting significant residual. PMID:26767106

  7. A systematic typology for negative Poisson's ratio materials and the prediction of complete auxeticity in pure silica zeolite JST.

    PubMed

    Siddorn, M; Coudert, F-X; Evans, K E; Marmier, A

    2015-07-21

    Single crystals can commonly have