Sample records for negative predictive values

  1. Impact of the endoscopist's experience on the negative predictive value of capsule endoscopy.

    PubMed

    Velayos Jiménez, Benito; Alcaide Suárez, Noelia; González Redondo, Guillermo; Fernández Salazar, Luis; Aller de la Fuente, Rocío; Del Olmo Martínez, Lourdes; Ruiz Rebollo, Lourdes; González Hernández, José Manuel

    2017-01-01

    The impact of the accumulated experience of the capsule endoscopy (CE) reader on the accuracy of this test is discussed. To determine whether the negative predictive value of CE findings changes along the learning curve. We reviewed the first 900 CE read by 3 gastroenterologists experienced in endoscopy over 8 years. These 900 CE were divided into 3 groups (300 CE each): group 1 consisted of the sum of the first 100 CE read by each of the 3 endoscopists; group 2, the sum of the second 100 and groups 3, the sum of the third 100. Patients with normal CE were monitored for at least 28 months to estimate the negative predictive value. A total of 54 (18%) CE in group 1, 58 (19.3%) in group 2 and 47 (15.6%) in group 3 were normal, although only 34 patients in group 1, 38 in group 2 and 36 in group 3 with normal CE completed follow up and were eventually studied. The negative predictive value was 88.2% in group 1, 89.5% in group 2 and 97% in group 3 (P>.05). The negative predictive value tended to increase, but remained high and did not change significantly after the first 100 when readers are experienced in conventional endoscopy and have preliminary specific training. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U., AEEH y AEG. All rights reserved.

  2. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values: diagnosing purple mange.

    PubMed

    Collier, Jill; Huebscher, Roxana

    2010-04-01

    To shed light on several epidemiological terms for better understanding of diagnostic testing measures by using a mythical condition, "purple mange." Scientific literature related to epidemiology and statistical tests. Nurse practitioners (NPs) use the concepts of sensitivity (SEN), specificity (SPEC), positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) daily in primary care and specialty areas. In addition, PPV and NPV vary with the prevalence of a condition. At times, NPs misunderstand the meaning of these terms. In order to develop appropriate treatment plans, an understanding of the concepts of SEN, SPEC, PPV, and NPV is important for interpreting test results. The authors have used this mythical condition purple mange as a teaching tool for NP students.

  3. The value of negative Chlamydia trachomatis antibody in prediction of normal tubes in infertile women.

    PubMed

    Raoofi, Z; Barchinegad, M; Haghighi, L

    2013-01-01

    To evaluate the value of Chlamydia trachomatis antibody testing in prediction of at least one normal tube in infertile women. Eighty infertile women without any history of abdominal or pelvic surgery, pelvic inflammatory disease, and endometriosis were recruited in this cross-sectional study from 2009 to 2010. The patients underwent hysterosalpingography, laparoscopy, and anti Chlamydia trachomatis IgG antibody (CAT) testing. We compared laparoscopy findings and CAT regarding sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and predicting value of tubal conditions. The CAT was positive in 50 patients (62.5%) and laparoscopy was positive in 32 patients (40%). The CAT was significantly higher in women with tubal disease (1.88 +/- 0.34) versus in women with normal tubes (1.21 +/- 0.28) (p = 0.003). Five out of 30 sero-negative women had unilateral tubal abnormality and none of them had bilateral tubal obstruction or severe pelvic adhesion. The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value, and accuracy of the CAT in prediction of one normal tube were 100%, 42.25%, 18%, 100%, and 48.75%, respectively. The negative predictive value of CAT to predict at least one normal tube in infertile women without history of abdominal or pelvic surgery, pelvic inflammatory disease, and endometriosis was 100%.

  4. The sensitivity and negative predictive value of a pediatric cervical spine clearance algorithm that minimizes computerized tomography.

    PubMed

    Arbuthnot, Mary; Mooney, David P

    2017-01-01

    It is crucial to identify cervical spine injuries while minimizing ionizing radiation. This study analyzes the sensitivity and negative predictive value of a pediatric cervical spine clearance algorithm. We performed a retrospective review of all children <21years old who were admitted following blunt trauma and underwent cervical spine clearance utilizing our institution's cervical spine clearance algorithm over a 10-year period. Age, gender, International Classification of Diseases 9th Edition diagnosis codes, presence or absence of cervical collar on arrival, Injury Severity Score, and type of cervical spine imaging obtained were extracted from the trauma registry and electronic medical record. Descriptive statistics were used and the sensitivity and negative predictive value of the algorithm were calculated. Approximately 125,000 children were evaluated in the Emergency Department and 11,331 were admitted. Of the admitted children, 1023 patients arrived in a cervical collar without advanced cervical spine imaging and were evaluated using the cervical spine clearance algorithm. Algorithm sensitivity was 94.4% and the negative predictive value was 99.9%. There was one missed injury, a spinous process tip fracture in a teenager maintained in a collar. Our algorithm was associated with a low missed injury rate and low CT utilization rate, even in children <3years old. IV. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  5. Naked-eye inspection of the cervix after acetic acid application may improve the predictive value of negative cytologic screening.

    PubMed

    Frisch, L E; Milner, F H; Ferris, D G

    1994-11-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the predictive value of naked-eye inspection of the cervix (NIC) after acetic acid application as an adjunct to Papanicolaou (Pap) testing for cervical cancer screening. Study subjects were women attending a medical college student health clinic either for cervical cytologic screening (67%) or because of a recent atypical cytologic screening result (33%). All study participants received cytologic screening, cervicography, and NIC. Of the 95 patients, 71 (75%) had abnormal findings on NIC. Fifty-one patients underwent colposcopy with biopsy, including 48 of the 71 with an abnormal finding on NIC. The results of 40 of the biopsies were abnormal: 36 showed human papillomavirus or low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions, 3 showed high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions, and 1 showed invasive cervical cancer. Sixty-five percent (26) of the abnormal biopsy findings occurred in women with normal cytologic test results. NIC and cervicography both were effective in identifying patients with abnormalities, but the combination of NIC followed by cervicography referred fewer women for colposcopy than did a positive result on NIC alone (52% vs 75%). The combination of a negative Pap smear and a negative NIC result had a 91% predictive value for the absence of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia. This was a significant improvement over cytologic screening alone. In this study, the combination of cytologic screening (Pap smear) and NIC increased the screening yield as compared with a Pap smear alone but with some loss of positive predictive value. NIC significantly improved the predictive value of negative cytologic screening results.

  6. The habenula encodes negative motivational value associated with primary punishment in humans.

    PubMed

    Lawson, Rebecca P; Seymour, Ben; Loh, Eleanor; Lutti, Antoine; Dolan, Raymond J; Dayan, Peter; Weiskopf, Nikolaus; Roiser, Jonathan P

    2014-08-12

    Learning what to approach, and what to avoid, involves assigning value to environmental cues that predict positive and negative events. Studies in animals indicate that the lateral habenula encodes the previously learned negative motivational value of stimuli. However, involvement of the habenula in dynamic trial-by-trial aversive learning has not been assessed, and the functional role of this structure in humans remains poorly characterized, in part, due to its small size. Using high-resolution functional neuroimaging and computational modeling of reinforcement learning, we demonstrate positive habenula responses to the dynamically changing values of cues signaling painful electric shocks, which predict behavioral suppression of responses to those cues across individuals. By contrast, negative habenula responses to monetary reward cue values predict behavioral invigoration. Our findings show that the habenula plays a key role in an online aversive learning system and in generating associated motivated behavior in humans.

  7. Serum procalcitonin has negative predictive value for bacterial infection in active systemic lupus erythematosus.

    PubMed

    Bador, K M; Intan, S; Hussin, S; Gafor, A H A

    2012-10-01

    Previous studies in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients have produced conflicting results regarding the diagnostic utility of procalcitonin (PCT). The aim of this study was to determine predictive values of PCT and C-reactive protein (CRP) for bacterial infection in SLE patients. This was a cross-sectional study of clinic and hospitalized SLE patients with and without bacterial infection recruited over 18 months. Bacterial infection was defined as positive culture results. SLE disease activity was measured using SLEDAI. PCT and CRP were measured by automated immunoassays. Sixty-eight patients (57 females) were studied. Ten patients (15%) had infection. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for PCT and CRP were not significantly different [0.797 (CI 0.614-0.979) versus 0.755 (CI 0.600-0.910)]. In lupus flare patients, PCT but not CRP was higher with infection (p = 0.019 versus 0.195). A PCT of <0.17 ng/ml ruled out infection with 94% negative predictive value (NPV). In remission patients, CRP but not PCT was elevated with infection (p = 0.036 versus 0.103). CRP < 0.57 mg/dl had 96% NPV. PCT may be a better marker to rule out bacterial infection in lupus flare but not in remission or general screening.

  8. True negative predictive value of endobronchial ultrasound in lung cancer: are we being conservative enough?

    PubMed

    Whitson, Bryan A; Groth, Shawn S; Odell, David D; Briones, Eleazar P; Maddaus, Michael A; D'Cunha, Jonathan; Andrade, Rafael S

    2013-05-01

    Mediastinal staging in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with endobronchial ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration (EBUS-FNA) requires a high negative predictive value (NPV) (ie, low false negative rate). We provide a conservative calculation of NPV that calls for caution in the interpretation of EBUS results. We retrospectively analyzed our prospectively gathered database (January 2007 to November 2011) to include NSCLC patients who underwent EBUS-FNA for mediastinal staging. We excluded patients with metastatic NSCLC and other malignancies. We assessed FNAs with rapid on-site evaluation (ROSE). The calculation of NPV is NPV = true negatives/true negatives + false negatives. However, this definition ignores nondiagnostic samples. Nondiagnostic samples should be added to the NPV denominator because decisions based on nondiagnostic samples could be flawed. We conservatively calculated NPV for EBUS-FNA as NPV = true negatives/true negatives + false negatives + nondiagnostic. We defined false negatives as negative FNAs but NSCLC-positive surgical biopsy of the same site. Nondiagnostic FNAs were nonrepresentative of lymphoid tissue. We compared diagnostic performance with the inclusion and exclusion of nondiagnostic procedures. We studied 120 patients with NSCLC who underwent EBUS-FNA; 5 patients had false negative findings and 10 additional patients had nondiagnostic results. The NPV with and without inclusion of nondiagnostic samples was 65.9% and 85.3%, respectively. The inclusion of nondiagnostic specimens into the conservative, worst-case-scenario calculation of NPV for EBUS-FNA in NSCLC lowers the NPV from 85.3% to 65.9%. The true NPV is likely higher than 65.9% as few nondiagnostic specimens are false negatives. Caution is imperative for the safe application of EBUS-FNA in NSCLC staging. Copyright © 2013 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Context-sensitivity of the feedback-related negativity for zero-value feedback outcomes.

    PubMed

    Pfabigan, Daniela M; Seidel, Eva-Maria; Paul, Katharina; Grahl, Arvina; Sailer, Uta; Lanzenberger, Rupert; Windischberger, Christian; Lamm, Claus

    2015-01-01

    The present study investigated whether the same visual stimulus indicating zero-value feedback (€0) elicits feedback-related negativity (FRN) variation, depending on whether the outcomes correspond with expectations or not. Thirty-one volunteers performed a monetary incentive delay (MID) task while EEG was recorded. FRN amplitudes were comparable and more negative when zero-value outcome deviated from expectations than with expected gain or loss, supporting theories emphasising the impact of unexpectedness and salience on FRN amplitudes. Surprisingly, expected zero-value outcomes elicited the most negative FRNs. However, source localisation showed that such outcomes evoked less activation in cingulate areas than unexpected zero-value outcomes. Our study illustrates the context dependency of identical zero-value feedback stimuli. Moreover, the results indicate that the incentive cues in the MID task evoke different reward prediction error signals. These prediction signals differ in FRN amplitude and neuronal sources, and have to be considered in the design and interpretation of future studies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Prospect theory does not describe the feedback-related negativity value function.

    PubMed

    Sambrook, Thomas D; Roser, Matthew; Goslin, Jeremy

    2012-12-01

    Humans handle uncertainty poorly. Prospect theory accounts for this with a value function in which possible losses are overweighted compared to possible gains, and the marginal utility of rewards decreases with size. fMRI studies have explored the neural basis of this value function. A separate body of research claims that prediction errors are calculated by midbrain dopamine neurons. We investigated whether the prospect theoretic effects shown in behavioral and fMRI studies were present in midbrain prediction error coding by using the feedback-related negativity, an ERP component believed to reflect midbrain prediction errors. Participants' stated satisfaction with outcomes followed prospect theory but their feedback-related negativity did not, instead showing no effect of marginal utility and greater sensitivity to potential gains than losses. Copyright © 2012 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

  11. Addendum to the article: Misuse of null hypothesis significance testing: Would estimation of positive and negative predictive values improve certainty of chemical risk assessment?

    PubMed

    Bundschuh, Mirco; Newman, Michael C; Zubrod, Jochen P; Seitz, Frank; Rosenfeldt, Ricki R; Schulz, Ralf

    2015-03-01

    We argued recently that the positive predictive value (PPV) and the negative predictive value (NPV) are valuable metrics to include during null hypothesis significance testing: They inform the researcher about the probability of statistically significant and non-significant test outcomes actually being true. Although commonly misunderstood, a reported p value estimates only the probability of obtaining the results or more extreme results if the null hypothesis of no effect was true. Calculations of the more informative PPV and NPV require a priori estimate of the probability (R). The present document discusses challenges of estimating R.

  12. Anticipating Their Future: Adolescent Values for the Future Predict Adult Behaviors

    PubMed Central

    Finlay, Andrea; Wray-Lake, Laura; Warren, Michael; Maggs, Jennifer L.

    2014-01-01

    Adolescent future values – beliefs about what will matter to them in the future – may shape their adult behavior. Utilizing a national longitudinal British sample, this study examined whether adolescent future values in six domains (i.e., family responsibility, full-time job, personal responsibility, autonomy, civic responsibility, and hedonistic privilege) predicted adult social roles, civic behaviors, and alcohol use. Future values positively predicted behaviors within the same domain; fewer cross-domain associations were evident. Civic responsibility positively predicted adult civic behaviors, but negatively predicted having children. Hedonistic privilege positively predicted adult alcohol use and negatively predicted civic behaviors. Results suggest that attention should be paid to how adolescents are thinking about their futures due to the associated links with long-term social and health behaviors. PMID:26279595

  13. Systematic bias of correlation coefficient may explain negative accuracy of genomic prediction.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Yao; Vales, M Isabel; Wang, Aoxue; Zhang, Zhiwu

    2017-09-01

    Accuracy of genomic prediction is commonly calculated as the Pearson correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed phenotypes in the inference population by using cross-validation analysis. More frequently than expected, significant negative accuracies of genomic prediction have been reported in genomic selection studies. These negative values are surprising, given that the minimum value for prediction accuracy should hover around zero when randomly permuted data sets are analyzed. We reviewed the two common approaches for calculating the Pearson correlation and hypothesized that these negative accuracy values reflect potential bias owing to artifacts caused by the mathematical formulas used to calculate prediction accuracy. The first approach, Instant accuracy, calculates correlations for each fold and reports prediction accuracy as the mean of correlations across fold. The other approach, Hold accuracy, predicts all phenotypes in all fold and calculates correlation between the observed and predicted phenotypes at the end of the cross-validation process. Using simulated and real data, we demonstrated that our hypothesis is true. Both approaches are biased downward under certain conditions. The biases become larger when more fold are employed and when the expected accuracy is low. The bias of Instant accuracy can be corrected using a modified formula. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  14. Predictive value and construct validity of the work functioning screener-healthcare (WFS-H).

    PubMed

    Boezeman, Edwin J; Nieuwenhuijsen, Karen; Sluiter, Judith K

    2016-05-25

    To test the predictive value and convergent construct validity of a 6-item work functioning screener (WFS-H). Healthcare workers (249 nurses) completed a questionnaire containing the work functioning screener (WFS-H) and a work functioning instrument (NWFQ) measuring the following: cognitive aspects of task execution and general incidents, avoidance behavior, conflicts and irritation with colleagues, impaired contact with patients and their family, and level of energy and motivation. Productivity and mental health were also measured. Negative and positive predictive values, AUC values, and sensitivity and specificity were calculated to examine the predictive value of the screener. Correlation analysis was used to examine the construct validity. The screener had good predictive value, since the results showed that a negative screener score is a strong indicator of work functioning not hindered by mental health problems (negative predictive values: 94%-98%; positive predictive values: 21%-36%; AUC:.64-.82; sensitivity: 42%-76%; and specificity 85%-87%). The screener has good construct validity due to moderate, but significant (p<.001), associations with productivity (r=.51), mental health (r=.48), and distress (r=.47). The screener (WFS-H) had good predictive value and good construct validity. Its score offers occupational health professionals a helpful preliminary insight into the work functioning of healthcare workers.

  15. A 3-Year Study of Predictive Factors for Positive and Negative Appendicectomies.

    PubMed

    Chang, Dwayne T S; Maluda, Melissa; Lee, Lisa; Premaratne, Chandrasiri; Khamhing, Srisongham

    2018-03-06

    Early and accurate identification or exclusion of acute appendicitis is the key to avoid the morbidity of delayed treatment for true appendicitis or unnecessary appendicectomy, respectively. We aim (i) to identify potential predictive factors for positive and negative appendicectomies; and (ii) to analyse the use of ultrasound scans (US) and computed tomography (CT) scans for acute appendicitis. All appendicectomies that took place at our hospital from the 1st of January 2013 to the 31st of December 2015 were retrospectively recorded. Test results of potential predictive factors of acute appendicitis were recorded. Statistical analysis was performed using Fisher exact test, logistic regression analysis, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values calculation. 208 patients were included in this study. 184 patients had histologically proven acute appendicitis. The other 24 patients had either nonappendicitis pathology or normal appendix. Logistic regression analysis showed statistically significant associations between appendicitis and white cell count, neutrophil count, C-reactive protein, and bilirubin. Neutrophil count was the test with the highest sensitivity and negative predictive values, whereas bilirubin was the test with the highest specificity and positive predictive values (PPV). US and CT scans had high sensitivity and PPV for diagnosing appendicitis. No single test was sufficient to diagnose or exclude acute appendicitis by itself. Combining tests with high sensitivity (abnormal neutrophil count, and US and CT scans) and high specificity (raised bilirubin) may predict acute appendicitis more accurately.

  16. Predictive value of diminutive colonic adenoma trial: the PREDICT trial.

    PubMed

    Schoenfeld, Philip; Shad, Javaid; Ormseth, Eric; Coyle, Walter; Cash, Brooks; Butler, James; Schindler, William; Kikendall, Walter J; Furlong, Christopher; Sobin, Leslie H; Hobbs, Christine M; Cruess, David; Rex, Douglas

    2003-05-01

    Diminutive adenomas (1-9 mm in diameter) are frequently found during colon cancer screening with flexible sigmoidoscopy (FS). This trial assessed the predictive value of these diminutive adenomas for advanced adenomas in the proximal colon. In a multicenter, prospective cohort trial, we matched 200 patients with normal FS and 200 patients with diminutive adenomas on FS for age and gender. All patients underwent colonoscopy. The presence of advanced adenomas (adenoma >or= 10 mm in diameter, villous adenoma, adenoma with high grade dysplasia, and colon cancer) and adenomas (any size) was recorded. Before colonoscopy, patients completed questionnaires about risk factors for adenomas. The prevalence of advanced adenomas in the proximal colon was similar in patients with diminutive adenomas and patients with normal FS (6% vs. 5.5%, respectively) (relative risk, 1.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.5-2.6). Diminutive adenomas on FS did not accurately predict advanced adenomas in the proximal colon: sensitivity, 52% (95% CI, 32%-72%); specificity, 50% (95% CI, 49%-51%); positive predictive value, 6% (95% CI, 4%-8%); and negative predictive value, 95% (95% CI, 92%-97%). Male gender (odds ratio, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.01-2.61) was associated with an increased risk of proximal colon adenomas. Diminutive adenomas on sigmoidoscopy may not accurately predict advanced adenomas in the proximal colon.

  17. Decisions on Further Research for Predictive Biomarkers of High-Dose Alkylating Chemotherapy in Triple-Negative Breast Cancer: A Value of Information Analysis.

    PubMed

    Miquel-Cases, Anna; Retèl, Valesca P; van Harten, Wim H; Steuten, Lotte M G

    2016-06-01

    To inform decisions about the design and priority of further studies of emerging predictive biomarkers of high-dose alkylating chemotherapy (HDAC) in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) using value-of-information analysis. A state transition model compared treating women with TNBC with current clinical practice and four biomarker strategies to personalize HDAC: 1) BRCA1-like profile by array comparative genomic hybridization (aCGH) testing; 2) BRCA1-like profile by multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification (MLPA) testing; 3) strategy 1 followed by X-inactive specific transcript gene (XIST) and tumor suppressor p53 binding protein (53BP1) testing; and 4) strategy 2 followed by XIST and 53BP1 testing, from a Dutch societal perspective and a 20-year time horizon. Input data came from literature and expert opinions. We assessed the expected value of partial perfect information, the expected value of sample information, and the expected net benefit of sampling for potential ancillary studies of an ongoing randomized controlled trial (RCT; NCT01057069). The expected value of partial perfect information indicated that further research should be prioritized to the parameter group including "biomarkers' prevalence, positive predictive value (PPV), and treatment response rates (TRRs) in biomarker-negative patients and patients with TNBC" (€639 million), followed by utilities (€48 million), costs (€40 million), and transition probabilities (TPs) (€30 million). By setting up four ancillary studies to the ongoing RCT, data on 1) TP and MLPA prevalence, PPV, and TRR; 2) aCGH and aCGH/MLPA plus XIST and 53BP1 prevalence, PPV, and TRR; 3) utilities; and 4) costs could be simultaneously collected (optimal size = 3000). Further research on predictive biomarkers for HDAC should focus on gathering data on TPs, prevalence, PPV, TRRs, utilities, and costs from the four ancillary studies to the ongoing RCT. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and

  18. [Study of the predictive value of detection tests for silent aspirations].

    PubMed

    Woisard, V; Réhault, E; Brouard, C; Fichaux-Bourin, P; Puech, M; Grand, S

    2009-01-01

    Screening for aspiration in patients with swallowing disorders is important in preventing complications. The tests used in this regard are insufficient due to silent aspiration relating to abnormal protective reflexes in many patients with swallowing problems. The aim of this study is to determine the predictive values of simple tests in screening for silent aspiration. The reference test used was videofluoroscopic examination on swallowing. In the presence of aspiration (FR+) the presence (ME+) or not (ME-) of a cough of throat clearing was noted. The tests being studied were a nasal test with isotonic saline and swallowing according to a set time. For screening for aspiration the presence of a "wet voice" was considered to be a sign of reduced protective reflexes. 1) During the nasal test, the results are 100% for the positive predictive value (VPp) and 83.3% for the negative predictive value (VPn); 2) These results are respectively 84.6% and 35.9% during the swallowing test. Regarding screening for silent aspiration, 1) during the nasal test, the results are 62.5% for the positive predictive value (VPp) and 36.3% for the negative predictive value (VPn); 2) These results are respectively 54.5% and 26.6% during the swallowing test. This preliminary study points out the lack of predictive value of the nasal test and the swallow test for the silent aspirations. However the results could be useful for other researchers developing other tests in this area.

  19. [Evaluation of thermal comfort in a student population: predictive value of an integrated index (Fanger's predicted mean value].

    PubMed

    Catenacci, G; Terzi, R; Marcaletti, G; Tringali, S

    1989-01-01

    Practical applications and predictive values of a thermal comfort index (Fanger's PRV) were verified on a sample school population (1236 subjects) by studying the relationships between thermal sensations (subjective analysis), determined by means of an individual questionnaire, and the values of thermal comfort index (objective analysis) obtained by calculating the PMV index individually in the subjects under study. In homogeneous conditions of metabolic expenditure rate and thermal impedence from clothing, significant differences were found between the two kinds of analyses. At 22 degrees C mean radiant and operative temperature, the PMV values averaged 0 and the percentage of subjects who experienced thermal comfort did not exceed 60%. The high level of subjects who were dissatisfied with their environmental thermal conditions confirms the doubts regarding the use of the PMV index as a predictive indicator of thermal comfort, especially considering that the negative answers were not homogeneous nor attributable to the small thermal fluctuations (less than 0.5 degree C) measured in the classrooms.

  20. Precision and negative predictive value of links between ClinicalTrials.gov and PubMed.

    PubMed

    Huser, Vojtech; Cimino, James J

    2012-01-01

    One of the goals of translational science is to shorten the time from discovery to clinical use. Clinical trial registries were established to increase transparency in completed and ongoing clinical trials, and they support linking trials with resulting publications. We set out to investigate precision and negative predictive value (NPV) of links between ClinicalTrials.gov (CT.gov) and PubMed. CT.gov has been established to increase transparency in clinical trials and the link to PubMed is crucial for supporting a number of important functions, including ascertaining publication bias. We drew a random sample of trials downloaded from CT.gov and performed manual review of retrieved publications. We characterize two types of links between trials and publications (NCT-link originating from MEDLINE and PMID-link originating from CT.gov).The link precision is different based on type (NCT-link: 100%; PMID-link: 63% to 96%). In trials with no linked publication, we were able to find publications 44% of the time (NPV=56%) by searching PubMed. This low NPV shows that there are potentially numerous publications that should have been formally linked with the trials. Our results indicate that existing trial registry and publisher policies may not be fully enforced. We suggest some automated methods for improving link quality.

  1. Does Spontaneous Favorability to Power (vs. Universalism) Values Predict Spontaneous Prejudice and Discrimination?

    PubMed

    Souchon, Nicolas; Maio, Gregory R; Hanel, Paul H P; Bardin, Brigitte

    2017-10-01

    We conducted five studies testing whether an implicit measure of favorability toward power over universalism values predicts spontaneous prejudice and discrimination. Studies 1 (N = 192) and 2 (N = 86) examined correlations between spontaneous favorability toward power (vs. universalism) values, achievement (vs. benevolence) values, and a spontaneous measure of prejudice toward ethnic minorities. Study 3 (N = 159) tested whether conditioning participants to associate power values with positive adjectives and universalism values with negative adjectives (or inversely) affects spontaneous prejudice. Study 4 (N = 95) tested whether decision bias toward female handball players could be predicted by spontaneous attitude toward power (vs. universalism) values. Study 5 (N = 123) examined correlations between spontaneous attitude toward power (vs. universalism) values, spontaneous importance toward power (vs. universalism) values, and spontaneous prejudice toward Black African people. Spontaneous positivity toward power (vs. universalism) values was associated with spontaneous negativity toward minorities and predicted gender bias in a decision task, whereas the explicit measures did not. These results indicate that the implicit assessment of evaluative responses attached to human values helps to model value-attitude-behavior relations. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Personality Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  2. Sample size for positive and negative predictive value in diagnostic research using case–control designs

    PubMed Central

    Steinberg, David M.; Fine, Jason; Chappell, Rick

    2009-01-01

    Important properties of diagnostic methods are their sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV). These methods are typically assessed via case–control samples, which include one cohort of cases known to have the disease and a second control cohort of disease-free subjects. Such studies give direct estimates of sensitivity and specificity but only indirect estimates of PPV and NPV, which also depend on the disease prevalence in the tested population. The motivating example arises in assay testing, where usage is contemplated in populations with known prevalences. Further instances include biomarker development, where subjects are selected from a population with known prevalence and assessment of PPV and NPV is crucial, and the assessment of diagnostic imaging procedures for rare diseases, where case–control studies may be the only feasible designs. We develop formulas for optimal allocation of the sample between the case and control cohorts and for computing sample size when the goal of the study is to prove that the test procedure exceeds pre-stated bounds for PPV and/or NPV. Surprisingly, the optimal sampling schemes for many purposes are highly unbalanced, even when information is desired on both PPV and NPV. PMID:18556677

  3. Meningitis in adult patients with a negative direct cerebrospinal fluid examination: value of cytochemical markers for differential diagnosis

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Introduction The objective of this study was to determine the ability of various parameters commonly used for the diagnosis of acute meningitis to differentiate between bacterial and viral meningitis, in adult patients with a negative direct cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) examination. Methods This was a prospective study, started in 1997, including all patients admitted to the emergency unit with acute meningitis and a negative direct CSF examination. Serum and CSF samples were taken immediately on admission. The patients were divided into two groups according to the type of meningitis: bacterial (BM; group I) or viral (VM; group II). The CSF parameters investigated were cytology, protein, glucose, and lactate; the serum parameters evaluated were C-reactive protein and procalcitonin. CSF/serum glucose and lactate ratios were also assessed. Results Of the 254 patients with meningitis with a negative direct CSF examination, 35 had BM and 181, VM. The most highly discriminative parameters for the differential diagnosis of BM proved to be CSF lactate, with a sensitivity of 94%, a specificity of 92%, a negative predictive value of 99%, a positive predictive value of 82% at a diagnostic cut-off level of 3.8 mmol/L (area under the curve (AUC), 0.96; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.95 to 1), and serum procalcitonin, with a sensitivity of 95%, a specificity of 100%, a negative predictive value of 100%, and a positive predictive value of 97% at a diagnostic cut-off level of 0.28 ng/ml (AUC, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.99 to 1). Conclusions Serum procalcitonin and CSF lactate concentrations appear to be the most highly discriminative parameters for the differential diagnosis of BM and VM. PMID:21645387

  4. Predictive Value of Matrix Metalloproteinases and Their Inhibitors for Mortality in Septic Patients: A Cohort Study.

    PubMed

    Serrano-Gomez, Sergio; Burgos-Angulo, Gabriel; Niño-Vargas, Daniela Camila; Niño, María Eugenia; Cárdenas, María Eugenia; Chacón-Valenzuela, Estephania; McCosham, Diana Margarita; Peinado-Acevedo, Juan Sebastián; Lopez, M Marcos; Cunha, Fernando; Pazin-Filho, Antonio; Ilarraza, Ramses; Schulz, Richard; Torres-Dueñas, Diego

    2017-01-01

    Over 170 biomarkers are being investigated regarding their prognostic and diagnostic accuracy in sepsis in order to find new tools to reduce morbidity and mortality. Matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) and their inhibitors have been recently studied as promising new prognostic biomarkers in patients with sepsis. This study is aimed at determining the utility of several cutoff points of these biomarkers to predict mortality in patients with sepsis. A multicenter, prospective, analytic cohort study was performed in the metropolitan area of Bucaramanga, Colombia. A total of 289 patients with sepsis and septic shock were included. MMP-9, MMP-2, tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase 1 (TIMP-1), TIMP-2, TIMP-1/MMP-9 ratio, and TIMP-2/MMP-2 ratio were determined in blood samples. Value ranges were correlated with mortality to estimate sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and area under the receiving operating characteristic curve. Sensitivity ranged from 33.3% (MMP-9/TIMP-1 ratio) to 60.6% (TIMP-1) and specificity varied from 38.8% (MMP-2/TIMP-2 ratio) to 58.5% (TIMP-1). As for predictive values, positive predictive value range was from 17.5% (MMP-9/TIMP-1 ratio) to 70.4% (MMP-2/TIMP-2 ratio), whereas negative predictive values were between 23.2% (MMP-2/TIMP-2 ratio) and 80.9% (TIMP-1). Finally, area under the curve scores ranged from 0.31 (MMP-9/TIMP-1 ratio) to 0.623 (TIMP-1). Although TIMP-1 showed higher sensitivity, specificity, and negative predictive value, with a representative population sample, we conclude that none of the evaluated biomarkers had significant predictive value for mortality.

  5. Sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of anterior chamber tap in cases of bacterial endophthalmitis.

    PubMed

    Sjoholm-Gomez de Liano, Carl; Soberon-Ventura, Vidal F; Salcedo-Villanueva, Guillermo; Santos-Palacios, Abril; Guerrero-Naranjo, Jose Luis; Fromow-Guerra, Jans; García-Aguirre, Gerardo; Morales-Canton, Virgilio; Velez-Montoya, Raul

    2017-01-01

    To assess the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of anterior chamber tap for the diagnosis of bacterial endophthalmitis on a population with high prevalence. Retrospective, single centre, case series study. We reviewed all medical records with clinical diagnosis of bacterial endophthalmitis in our hospital from January 1st, 2000 to December 31st 2014. From each record, we documented general demographic data, best corrected visual acuity and vitreous and aqueous tap microbiological results. All cases were further divided according to the endophthalmitis aetiology to perform individual calculations of sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, accuracy and prevalence. We used the results of the vitreous tap as the gold standard for diagnosis of bacterial endophthalmitis. We excluded those records in which the aqueous and vitreous samples were not taken simultaneously or had an incomplete microbiological report. Significance were assessed with chi squared statistics, with an alpha value of 0.05 for statistical significance. A total of 190 cases fulfilled the inclusion/exclusion criteria. Positive culture rate from vitreous samples was 64.74%. Positive culture rate from aqueous sample was 32.11%. Bacteria isolated from aqueous samples matched those isolated from vitreous samples 78.68% of the time. The overall sensitivity was 38.21%, specificity: 75.51%, positive predictive value: 79.66%, negative predictive value: 32.74% ( p  = 0.08). Subgroup analysis showed that anterior chamber taps in cases of post-surgical endophthalmitis had a moderate to low sensitivity (37.73%), high specificity (93%) and high positive predictive value (95%) ( p  < 0.04). The sensitivity and specificity of anterior chamber tap are low and should not be used for critical therapeutic decisions in patients with suspected bacterial endophthalmitis. In cases of post-surgical endophthalmitis, the result of an

  6. Predictive value of bacterial analysis of laparotomy wounds.

    PubMed

    Minutolo, Mario; Blandino, Giovanna; Arena, Manuel; Licciardello, Alessio; Di Stefano, Biagio; Lanteri, Raffaele; Puleo, Stefano; Licata, Antonio; Minutolo, Vincenzo

    2014-01-01

    Despite improvements in antibiotic prophylaxis, surgical site infections represent the most common postoperative complication with important clinical consequences for patients. The hypothesis that a bacterial analysis of the surgical wound in the operating room could predict the likelihood of developing a clinical infection, and might allow a tailored and preemptive approach, aimed to reduce the consequences of an infection, seems appealing. We would like to present a prospective study on the predictive value of the bacterial analysis of laparotomy wounds. Seventy eight prospective patients undergoing surgery were included in the study. To evaluate the risk factors associated with increased rate of wound infection, we performed a bacterial analysis of the wound. 48 patients out of 78 (61%) had positive cultures. 23 patients out of 32 patients (72%) who didn't receive antibiotic prophylaxis were positive to the wound culture whereas 25 patients out of 46 patients (54%) grew positive cultures in the group of patients that received antibiotic prophylaxis. None of the 30 patients with negative cultures developed clinical infection. Only 6 patients out of 48 patients who had positive cultures (12.5%) developed wound infection. Clinical infection occurred in 5 patients who had gram-negative contamination of the wound. No clinical infection occurred in patients who had gram-positive contamination. Wound cultures and their positivity are predictive tools to identify the patients that are at risk to develop wound infection. The positive predictive value of the bacterial analysis of the wound was 12.5%. Abdominal surgery, Bacterial analysis, Wound infection.

  7. The importance of negative predictive value (NPV) of vulnerable elderly survey (VES 13) as a pre-screening test in older patients with cancer.

    PubMed

    Castagneto, B; Di Pietrantonj, C; Stevani, I; Anfossi, A; Arzese, M; Giorcelli, L; Giaretto, L

    2013-12-01

    The importance of prognostic value of the comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) is well known in geriatric oncology, but there is no consensus on the use of alternative abbreviated screening methods for the evaluation of older patient disabilities. The participants in this study underwent vulnerable elderly survey 13 (VES 13) at first entry in Oncology Department and were later assessed by a geriatrician according to CGA. A score >3 for VES 13 identified patients as vulnerable. Aim of this study was to evaluate the specificity, sensibility, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of VES 13 versus cumulative illness rating scale (CIRS), activities of daily living (ADL), instrumental activities of daily living (IADL), and short portable mental status questionnaire (SPMSQ). Hundred and seventeen patients (mean age 78.8 years) entered the study. The NPV of VES was 74.6% for CIRS, 90.1% for IADL, 93.0% for ADL, and 100% for SPMSQ. As for PPV, the VES 13 showed no accuracy. We can conclude that VES 13 demonstrated sufficient accuracy as a screening test in identifying elderly "fit" patients in order to spare the more time-consuming CGA.

  8. Clinical validation of an epigenetic assay to predict negative histopathological results in repeat prostate biopsies.

    PubMed

    Partin, Alan W; Van Neste, Leander; Klein, Eric A; Marks, Leonard S; Gee, Jason R; Troyer, Dean A; Rieger-Christ, Kimberly; Jones, J Stephen; Magi-Galluzzi, Cristina; Mangold, Leslie A; Trock, Bruce J; Lance, Raymond S; Bigley, Joseph W; Van Criekinge, Wim; Epstein, Jonathan I

    2014-10-01

    The DOCUMENT multicenter trial in the United States validated the performance of an epigenetic test as an independent predictor of prostate cancer risk to guide decision making for repeat biopsy. Confirming an increased negative predictive value could help avoid unnecessary repeat biopsies. We evaluated the archived, cancer negative prostate biopsy core tissue samples of 350 subjects from a total of 5 urological centers in the United States. All subjects underwent repeat biopsy within 24 months with a negative (controls) or positive (cases) histopathological result. Centralized blinded pathology evaluation of the 2 biopsy series was performed in all available subjects from each site. Biopsies were epigenetically profiled for GSTP1, APC and RASSF1 relative to the ACTB reference gene using quantitative methylation specific polymerase chain reaction. Predetermined analytical marker cutoffs were used to determine assay performance. Multivariate logistic regression was used to evaluate all risk factors. The epigenetic assay resulted in a negative predictive value of 88% (95% CI 85-91). In multivariate models correcting for age, prostate specific antigen, digital rectal examination, first biopsy histopathological characteristics and race the test proved to be the most significant independent predictor of patient outcome (OR 2.69, 95% CI 1.60-4.51). The DOCUMENT study validated that the epigenetic assay was a significant, independent predictor of prostate cancer detection in a repeat biopsy collected an average of 13 months after an initial negative result. Due to its 88% negative predictive value adding this epigenetic assay to other known risk factors may help decrease unnecessary repeat prostate biopsies. Copyright © 2014 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. High test positivity and low positive predictive value for colorectal cancer of continued faecal occult blood test screening after negative colonoscopy.

    PubMed

    Brown, Jeremy P; Wooldrage, Kate; Wright, Suzanne; Nickerson, Claire; Cross, Amanda J; Atkin, Wendy S

    2018-06-01

    Objectives The English Bowel Cancer Screening Programme offers biennial guaiac faecal occult blood test (gFOBT) screening to 60-74-year-olds. Participants with positive results are referred for follow-up, but many do not have significant findings. If they remain age eligible, these individuals are reinvited for gFOBT screening. We evaluated the performance of repeat screening in this group. Methods We analysed data on programme participants reinvited to gFOBT screening after either previous negative gFOBT ( n = 327,542), or positive gFOBT followed by a diagnostic investigation negative for colorectal cancer (CRC) or adenomas requiring surveillance ( n = 42,280). Outcomes calculated were uptake, test positivity, yield of CRC, and positive predictive value (PPV) of gFOBT for CRC. Results For participants with a previous negative gFOBT, uptake in the subsequent screening round was 87.5%, positivity was 1.3%, yield of CRC was 0.112% of those adequately screened, and the PPV of gFOBT for CRC was 9.1%. After a positive gFOBT and a negative diagnostic investigation, uptake in the repeat screening round was 82.6%, positivity was 11.3%, CRC yield was 0.172% of participants adequately screened, and the PPV of gFOBT for CRC was 1.7%. Conclusion With high positivity and low PPV for CRC, the suitability of routine repeat gFOBT screening in two years among individuals with a previous positive test and a negative diagnostic examination needs to be carefully considered.

  10. Predictive values of thermal and electrical dental pulp tests: a clinical study.

    PubMed

    Villa-Chávez, Carlos E; Patiño-Marín, Nuria; Loyola-Rodríguez, Juan P; Zavala-Alonso, Norma V; Martínez-Castañón, Gabriel A; Medina-Solís, Carlo E

    2013-08-01

    For a diagnostic test to be useful, it is necessary to determine the probability that the test will provide the correct diagnosis. Therefore, it is necessary to calculate the predictive value of diagnostics. The aim of the present study was to identify the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, accuracy, and reproducibility of thermal and electrical tests of pulp sensitivity. The thermal tests studied were the 1, 1, 1, 2-tetrafluoroethane (cold) and hot gutta-percha (hot) tests. For the electrical test, the Analytic Technology Pulp Tester (Analytic Technology, Redmond, WA) was used. A total of 110 teeth were tested: 60 teeth with vital pulp and 50 teeth with necrotic pulps (disease prevalence of 45%). The ideal standard was established by direct pulp inspection. The sensitivities of the diagnostic tests were 0.88 for the cold test, 0.86 for the heat test, and 0.76 for the electrical test, and the specificity was 1.0 for all 3 tests. The negative predictive value was 0.90 for the cold test, 0.89 for the heat test, and 0.83 for the electrical test, and the positive predictive value was 1.0 for all 3 tests. The highest accuracy (0.94) and reproducibility (0.88) were observed for the cold test. The cold test was the most accurate method for diagnostic testing. Copyright © 2013 American Association of Endodontists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. A weighted generalized score statistic for comparison of predictive values of diagnostic tests.

    PubMed

    Kosinski, Andrzej S

    2013-03-15

    Positive and negative predictive values are important measures of a medical diagnostic test performance. We consider testing equality of two positive or two negative predictive values within a paired design in which all patients receive two diagnostic tests. The existing statistical tests for testing equality of predictive values are either Wald tests based on the multinomial distribution or the empirical Wald and generalized score tests within the generalized estimating equations (GEE) framework. As presented in the literature, these test statistics have considerably complex formulas without clear intuitive insight. We propose their re-formulations that are mathematically equivalent but algebraically simple and intuitive. As is clearly seen with a new re-formulation we presented, the generalized score statistic does not always reduce to the commonly used score statistic in the independent samples case. To alleviate this, we introduce a weighted generalized score (WGS) test statistic that incorporates empirical covariance matrix with newly proposed weights. This statistic is simple to compute, always reduces to the score statistic in the independent samples situation, and preserves type I error better than the other statistics as demonstrated by simulations. Thus, we believe that the proposed WGS statistic is the preferred statistic for testing equality of two predictive values and for corresponding sample size computations. The new formulas of the Wald statistics may be useful for easy computation of confidence intervals for difference of predictive values. The introduced concepts have potential to lead to development of the WGS test statistic in a general GEE setting. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  12. A weighted generalized score statistic for comparison of predictive values of diagnostic tests

    PubMed Central

    Kosinski, Andrzej S.

    2013-01-01

    Positive and negative predictive values are important measures of a medical diagnostic test performance. We consider testing equality of two positive or two negative predictive values within a paired design in which all patients receive two diagnostic tests. The existing statistical tests for testing equality of predictive values are either Wald tests based on the multinomial distribution or the empirical Wald and generalized score tests within the generalized estimating equations (GEE) framework. As presented in the literature, these test statistics have considerably complex formulas without clear intuitive insight. We propose their re-formulations which are mathematically equivalent but algebraically simple and intuitive. As is clearly seen with a new re-formulation we present, the generalized score statistic does not always reduce to the commonly used score statistic in the independent samples case. To alleviate this, we introduce a weighted generalized score (WGS) test statistic which incorporates empirical covariance matrix with newly proposed weights. This statistic is simple to compute, it always reduces to the score statistic in the independent samples situation, and it preserves type I error better than the other statistics as demonstrated by simulations. Thus, we believe the proposed WGS statistic is the preferred statistic for testing equality of two predictive values and for corresponding sample size computations. The new formulas of the Wald statistics may be useful for easy computation of confidence intervals for difference of predictive values. The introduced concepts have potential to lead to development of the weighted generalized score test statistic in a general GEE setting. PMID:22912343

  13. Prediction of large negative shaded-side spacecraft potentials

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prokopenko, S. M. L.; Laframboise, J. G.

    1977-01-01

    A calculation by Knott, for the floating potential of a spherically symmetric synchronous-altitude satellite in eclipse, was adapted to provide simple calculations of upper bounds on negative potentials which may be achieved by electrically isolated shaded surfaces on spacecraft in sunlight. Large (approximately 60 percent) increases in predicted negative shaded-side potentials are obtained. To investigate effective potential barrier or angular momentum selection effects due to the presence of less negative sunlit-side or adjacent surface potentials, these expressions were replaced by the ion random current, which is a lower bound for convex surfaces when such effects become very severe. Further large increases in predicted negative potentials were obtained, amounting to a doubling in some cases.

  14. Utility of prior cultures in predicting antibiotic resistance of bloodstream infections due to Gram-negative pathogens: a multicentre observational cohort study.

    PubMed

    MacFadden, D R; Coburn, B; Shah, N; Robicsek, A; Savage, R; Elligsen, M; Daneman, N

    2018-05-01

    Appropriate empiric antibiotic therapy in patients with bloodstream infections due to Gram-negative pathogens can improve outcomes. We evaluated the utility of prior microbiologic results for guiding empiric treatment in Gram-negative bloodstream infections. We conducted a multicentre observational cohort study in two large health systems in Canada and the United States, including 1832 hospitalized patients with Gram-negative bloodstream infection (community, hospital and intensive care unit acquired) from April 2010 to March 2015. Among 1832 patients with Gram-negative bloodstream infection, 28% (n = 504) of patients had a documented prior Gram-negative organism from a nonscreening culture within the previous 12 months. A most recent prior Gram-negative organism resistant to a given antibiotic was strongly predictive of the current organism's resistance to the same antibiotic. The overall specificity was 0.92 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.91-0.93), and positive predictive value was 0.66 (95% CI 0.61-0.70) for predicting antibiotic resistance. Specificities and positive predictive values ranged from 0.77 to 0.98 and 0.43 to 0.78, respectively, across different antibiotics, organisms and patient subgroups. Increasing time between cultures was associated with a decrease in positive predictive value but not specificity. An heuristic based on a prior resistant Gram-negative pathogen could have been applied to one in four patients and in these patients would have changed therapy in one in five. In patients with a bloodstream infection with a Gram-negative organism, identification of a most recent prior Gram-negative organism resistant to a drug of interest (within the last 12 months) is highly specific for resistance and should preclude use of that antibiotic. Copyright © 2017 European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Negative values of quasidistributions and quantum wave and number statistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peřina, J.; Křepelka, J.

    2018-04-01

    We consider nonclassical wave and number quantum statistics, and perform a decomposition of quasidistributions for nonlinear optical down-conversion processes using Bessel functions. We show that negative values of the quasidistribution do not directly represent probabilities; however, they directly influence measurable number statistics. Negative terms in the decomposition related to the nonclassical behavior with negative amplitudes of probability can be interpreted as positive amplitudes of probability in the negative orthogonal Bessel basis, whereas positive amplitudes of probability in the positive basis describe classical cases. However, probabilities are positive in all cases, including negative values of quasidistributions. Negative and positive contributions of decompositions to quasidistributions are estimated. The approach can be adapted to quantum coherence functions.

  16. The predictive value of MRI in detecting thyroid gland invasion in patients with advanced laryngeal or hypopharyngeal carcinoma.

    PubMed

    Lin, Peiliang; Huang, Xiaoming; Zheng, Chushan; Cai, Qian; Guan, Zhong; Liang, Faya; Zheng, Yiqing

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive value of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in detecting thyroid gland invasion (TGI) in patients with advanced laryngeal or hypopharyngeal carcinoma. In a retrospective chart review, 41 patients with advanced laryngeal or hypopharyngeal carcinoma underwent MRI scan before total laryngectomy and ipsilateral or bilateral thyroidectomy during the past 5 years. The MRI findings were compared with the postoperative pathological results. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were calculated. Among the 41 patients, 3 had thyroid gland invasion in postoperative pathological results. MRI correctly predicted the absence of TGI in 37 of 38 patients and TGI in all 3 patients. The sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of MRI were 100.0, 97.4, 75.0, and 100 %, respectively, with the diagnostic accuracy of 97.6 %. In consideration of the high negative predictive value of MRI, it may help surgeons selectively preserve thyroid gland in total laryngectomy and reduce the incidence of hypothyroidism and hypoparathyroidism postoperatively.

  17. Quantification, Prediction, and the Online Impact of Sentence Truth-Value: Evidence From Event-Related Potentials

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Do negative quantifiers like “few” reduce people’s ability to rapidly evaluate incoming language with respect to world knowledge? Previous research has addressed this question by examining whether online measures of quantifier comprehension match the “final” interpretation reflected in verification judgments. However, these studies confounded quantifier valence with its impact on the unfolding expectations for upcoming words, yielding mixed results. In the current event-related potentials study, participants read negative and positive quantifier sentences matched on cloze probability and on truth-value (e.g., “Most/Few gardeners plant their flowers during the spring/winter for best results”). Regardless of whether participants explicitly verified the sentences or not, true-positive quantifier sentences elicited reduced N400s compared with false-positive quantifier sentences, reflecting the facilitated semantic retrieval of words that render a sentence true. No such facilitation was seen in negative quantifier sentences. However, mixed-effects model analyses (with cloze value and truth-value as continuous predictors) revealed that decreasing cloze values were associated with an interaction pattern between truth-value and quantifier, whereas increasing cloze values were associated with more similar truth-value effects regardless of quantifier. Quantifier sentences are thus understood neither always in 2 sequential stages, nor always in a partial-incremental fashion, nor always in a maximally incremental fashion. Instead, and in accordance with prediction-based views of sentence comprehension, quantifier sentence comprehension depends on incorporation of quantifier meaning into an online, knowledge-based prediction for upcoming words. Fully incremental quantifier interpretation occurs when quantifiers are incorporated into sufficiently strong online predictions for upcoming words. PMID:26375784

  18. Emotion and hypervigilance: negative affect predicts increased P1 responses to non-negative pictorial stimuli.

    PubMed

    Schomberg, Jessica; Schöne, Benjamin; Gruber, Thomas; Quirin, Markus

    2016-06-01

    Previous research has demonstrated that negative affect influences attentional processes. Here, we investigate whether pre-experimental negative affect predicts a hypervigilant neural response as indicated by increased event-related potential amplitudes in response to neutral and positive visual stimuli. In our study, seventeen male participants filled out the German version of the positive and negative affect schedule (Watson et al. in J Pers Soc Psychol 54:1063-1070, 1988; Krohne et al. in Diagnostica 42:139-156, 1996) and subsequently watched positive (erotica, extreme sports, beautiful women) and neutral (daily activities) photographs while electroencephalogram was recorded. In line with our hypothesis, low state negative affect but not (reduced) positive affect predicted an increase in the first positive event-related potential amplitude P1 as a typical marker of increased selective attention. As this effect occurred in response to non-threatening picture conditions, negative affect may foster an individual's general hypervigilance, a state that has formerly been associated with psychopathology only.

  19. The predictive value of single-photon emission computed tomography/computed tomography for sentinel lymph node localization in head and neck cutaneous malignancy.

    PubMed

    Remenschneider, Aaron K; Dilger, Amanda E; Wang, Yingbing; Palmer, Edwin L; Scott, James A; Emerick, Kevin S

    2015-04-01

    Preoperative localization of sentinel lymph nodes in head and neck cutaneous malignancies can be aided by single-photon emission computed tomography/computed tomography (SPECT/CT); however, its true predictive value for identifying lymph nodes intraoperatively remains unquantified. This study aims to understand the sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of SPECT/CT in sentinel lymph node biopsy for cutaneous malignancies of the head and neck. Blinded retrospective imaging review with comparison to intraoperative gamma probe confirmed sentinel lymph nodes. A consecutive series of patients with a head and neck cutaneous malignancy underwent preoperative SPECT/CT followed by sentinel lymph node biopsy with a gamma probe. Two nuclear medicine physicians, blinded to clinical data, independently reviewed each SPECT/CT. Activity within radiographically defined nodal basins was recorded and compared to intraoperative gamma probe findings. Sensitivity, specificity, and negative and positive predictive values were calculated with subgroup stratification by primary tumor site. Ninety-two imaging reads were performed on 47 patients with cutaneous malignancy who underwent SPECT/CT followed by sentinel lymph node biopsy. Overall sensitivity was 73%, specificity 92%, positive predictive value 54%, and negative predictive value 96%. The predictive ability of SPECT/CT to identify the basin or an adjacent basin containing the single hottest node was 92%. SPECT/CT overestimated uptake by an average of one nodal basin. In the head and neck, SPECT/CT has higher reliability for primary lesions of the eyelid, scalp, and cheek. SPECT/CT has high sensitivity, specificity, and negative predictive value, but may overestimate relevant nodal basins in sentinel lymph node biopsy. © 2014 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

  20. Evaluation of non-negative matrix factorization of grey matter in age prediction.

    PubMed

    Varikuti, Deepthi P; Genon, Sarah; Sotiras, Aristeidis; Schwender, Holger; Hoffstaedter, Felix; Patil, Kaustubh R; Jockwitz, Christiane; Caspers, Svenja; Moebus, Susanne; Amunts, Katrin; Davatzikos, Christos; Eickhoff, Simon B

    2018-06-01

    The relationship between grey matter volume (GMV) patterns and age can be captured by multivariate pattern analysis, allowing prediction of individuals' age based on structural imaging. Raw data, voxel-wise GMV and non-sparse factorization (with Principal Component Analysis, PCA) show good performance but do not promote relatively localized brain components for post-hoc examinations. Here we evaluated a non-negative matrix factorization (NNMF) approach to provide a reduced, but also interpretable representation of GMV data in age prediction frameworks in healthy and clinical populations. This examination was performed using three datasets: a multi-site cohort of life-span healthy adults, a single site cohort of older adults and clinical samples from the ADNI dataset with healthy subjects, participants with Mild Cognitive Impairment and patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) subsamples. T1-weighted images were preprocessed with VBM8 standard settings to compute GMV values after normalization, segmentation and modulation for non-linear transformations only. Non-negative matrix factorization was computed on the GM voxel-wise values for a range of granularities (50-690 components) and LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator) regression were used for age prediction. First, we compared the performance of our data compression procedure (i.e., NNMF) to various other approaches (i.e., uncompressed VBM data, PCA-based factorization and parcellation-based compression). We then investigated the impact of the granularity on the accuracy of age prediction, as well as the transferability of the factorization and model generalization across datasets. We finally validated our framework by examining age prediction in ADNI samples. Our results showed that our framework favorably compares with other approaches. They also demonstrated that the NNMF based factorization derived from one dataset could be efficiently applied to compress VBM data of another dataset and that

  1. Preoperative cow-side lactatemia measurement predicts negative outcome in Holstein dairy cattle with right abomasal disorders.

    PubMed

    Boulay, G; Francoz, D; Doré, E; Dufour, S; Veillette, M; Badillo, M; Bélanger, A-M; Buczinski, S

    2014-01-01

    The objectives of the current study were (1) to determine the gain in prognostic accuracy of preoperative l-lactate concentration (LAC) measured on farm on cows with right displaced abomasum (RDA) or abomasal volvulus (AV) for predicting negative outcome; and (2) to suggest clinically relevant thresholds for such use. A cohort of 102 cows with on-farm surgical diagnostic of RDA or AV was obtained from June 2009 through December 2011. Blood was drawn from coccygeal vessels before surgery and plasma LAC was immediately measured by using a portable clinical analyzer. Dairy producers were interviewed by phone 30 d following surgery and the outcome was determined: a positive outcome if the owner was satisfied of the overall evolution 30 d postoperatively, and a negative outcome if the cow was culled, died, or if the owner reported being unsatisfied 30 d postoperatively. The area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic curve for LAC was 0.92 and was significantly greater than the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic curve of heart rate (HR; 0.77), indicating that LAC, in general, performed better than HR to predict a negative outcome. Furthermore, the ability to predict a negative outcome was significantly improved when LAC measurement was considered in addition to the already available HR data (area under the curve: 0.93 and 95% confidence interval: 0.87, 0.99). Important inflection points of the misclassification cost term function were noted at thresholds of 2 and 6 mmol/L, suggesting the potential utility of these cut-points. The 2 and 6 mmol/L thresholds had a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value for predicting a negative outcome of 76.2, 82.7, 53.3, and 93.1%, and of 28.6, 97.5, 75, and 84%, respectively. In terms of clinical interpretation, LAC ≤2 mmol/L appeared to be a good indicator of positive outcome and could be used to support a surgical treatment decision. The

  2. Human attitudes towards herpetofauna: the influence of folklore and negative values on the conservation of amphibians and reptiles in Portugal.

    PubMed

    Ceríaco, Luis Mp

    2012-02-08

    Human values and folklore of wildlife strongly influence the effectiveness of conservation efforts. These values and folklore may also vary with certain demographic characteristics such as gender, age, or education. Reptiles and amphibians are among the least appreciated of vertebrates and are victims of many negative values and wrong ideas resulting from the direct interpretation of folklore. We try to demonstrate how these values and folklore can affect the way people relate to them and also the possible conservation impacts on these animals. A questionnaire survey distributed to 514 people in the district of Évora, Portugal, was used to obtain data regarding the hypothesis that the existence of wrong ideas and negative values contributes to the phenomenon of human-associated persecution of these animals. A structural equation model was specified in order to confirm the hypothesis about the possible relationships between the presence of perceptions and negative values about amphibians and reptiles and persecution and anti-conservation attitudes. Sociodemographic variables were also added. The results of the model suggest that the presence of folklore and negative values clearly predicts persecution and anti-conservation attitudes towards amphibians and reptiles. Also, the existence of folklore varies sociodemographically, but negative values concerning these animals are widespread in the population. With the use of structural equation models, this work is a contribution to the study of how certain ideas and values can directly influence human attitudes towards herpetofauna and how they can be a serious conservation issue.

  3. Negatively valenced expectancy violation predicts emotionality: A longitudinal analysis.

    PubMed

    Bettencourt, B Ann; Manning, Mark

    2016-09-01

    We hypothesized that negatively valenced expectancy violations about the quality of 1's life would predict negative emotionality. We tested this hypothesis in a 4-wave longitudinal study of breast cancer survivors. The findings showed that higher levels of negatively valenced expectancy violation, at earlier time points, were associated with greater negative emotionality, at later time points. Implications of the findings are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  4. Risk score predicts high-grade prostate cancer in DNA-methylation positive, histopathologically negative biopsies.

    PubMed

    Van Neste, Leander; Partin, Alan W; Stewart, Grant D; Epstein, Jonathan I; Harrison, David J; Van Criekinge, Wim

    2016-09-01

    Prostate cancer (PCa) diagnosis is challenging because efforts for effective, timely treatment of men with significant cancer typically result in over-diagnosis and repeat biopsies. The presence or absence of epigenetic aberrations, more specifically DNA-methylation of GSTP1, RASSF1, and APC in histopathologically negative prostate core biopsies has resulted in an increased negative predictive value (NPV) of ∼90% and thus could lead to a reduction of unnecessary repeat biopsies. Here, it is investigated whether, in methylation-positive men, DNA-methylation intensities could help to identify those men harboring high-grade (Gleason score ≥7) PCa, resulting in an improved positive predictive value. Two cohorts, consisting of men with histopathologically negative index biopsies, followed by a positive or negative repeat biopsy, were combined. EpiScore, a methylation intensity algorithm was developed in methylation-positive men, using area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic as metric for performance. Next, a risk score was developed combining EpiScore with traditional clinical risk factors to further improve the identification of high-grade (Gleason Score ≥7) cancer. Compared to other risk factors, detection of DNA-methylation in histopathologically negative biopsies was the most significant and important predictor of high-grade cancer, resulting in a NPV of 96%. In methylation-positive men, EpiScore was significantly higher for those with high-grade cancer detected upon repeat biopsy, compared to those with either no or low-grade cancer. The risk score resulted in further improvement of patient risk stratification and was a significantly better predictor compared to currently used metrics as PSA and the prostate cancer prevention trial (PCPT) risk calculator (RC). A decision curve analysis indicated strong clinical utility for the risk score as decision-making tool for repeat biopsy. Low DNA-methylation levels in PCa-negative biopsies led

  5. Neurophysiology of Reward-Guided Behavior: Correlates Related to Predictions, Value, Motivation, Errors, Attention, and Action.

    PubMed

    Bissonette, Gregory B; Roesch, Matthew R

    2016-01-01

    Many brain areas are activated by the possibility and receipt of reward. Are all of these brain areas reporting the same information about reward? Or are these signals related to other functions that accompany reward-guided learning and decision-making? Through carefully controlled behavioral studies, it has been shown that reward-related activity can represent reward expectations related to future outcomes, errors in those expectations, motivation, and signals related to goal- and habit-driven behaviors. These dissociations have been accomplished by manipulating the predictability of positively and negatively valued events. Here, we review single neuron recordings in behaving animals that have addressed this issue. We describe data showing that several brain areas, including orbitofrontal cortex, anterior cingulate, and basolateral amygdala signal reward prediction. In addition, anterior cingulate, basolateral amygdala, and dopamine neurons also signal errors in reward prediction, but in different ways. For these areas, we will describe how unexpected manipulations of positive and negative value can dissociate signed from unsigned reward prediction errors. All of these signals feed into striatum to modify signals that motivate behavior in ventral striatum and guide responding via associative encoding in dorsolateral striatum.

  6. Neurophysiology of Reward-Guided Behavior: Correlates Related to Predictions, Value, Motivation, Errors, Attention, and Action

    PubMed Central

    Roesch, Matthew R.

    2017-01-01

    Many brain areas are activated by the possibility and receipt of reward. Are all of these brain areas reporting the same information about reward? Or are these signals related to other functions that accompany reward-guided learning and decision-making? Through carefully controlled behavioral studies, it has been shown that reward-related activity can represent reward expectations related to future outcomes, errors in those expectations, motivation, and signals related to goal- and habit-driven behaviors. These dissociations have been accomplished by manipulating the predictability of positively and negatively valued events. Here, we review single neuron recordings in behaving animals that have addressed this issue. We describe data showing that several brain areas, including orbitofrontal cortex, anterior cingulate, and basolateral amygdala signal reward prediction. In addition, anterior cingulate, basolateral amygdala, and dopamine neurons also signal errors in reward prediction, but in different ways. For these areas, we will describe how unexpected manipulations of positive and negative value can dissociate signed from unsigned reward prediction errors. All of these signals feed into striatum to modify signals that motivate behavior in ventral striatum and guide responding via associative encoding in dorsolateral striatum. PMID:26276036

  7. Two roads diverged: Distinct mechanisms of attentional bias differentially predict negative affect and persistent negative thought.

    PubMed

    Onie, Sandersan; Most, Steven B

    2017-08-01

    Attentional biases to threatening stimuli have been implicated in various emotional disorders. Theoretical approaches often carry the implicit assumption that various attentional bias measures tap into the same underlying construct, but attention itself is not a unitary mechanism. Most attentional bias tasks-such as the dot probe (DP)-index spatial attention, neglecting other potential attention mechanisms. We compared the DP with emotion-induced blindness (EIB), which appears to be mechanistically distinct, and examined the degree to which these tasks predicted (a) negative affect, (b) persistent negative thought (i.e., worry, rumination), and (c) each other. The 2 tasks did not predict each other, and they uniquely accounted for negative affect in a regression analysis. The relationship between EIB and negative affect was mediated by persistent negative thought, whereas that between the DP and negative affect was not, suggesting that EIB may be more intimately linked than spatial attention with persistent negative thought. Experiment 2 revealed EIB to have a favorable test-retest reliability. Together, these findings underscore the importance of distinguishing between attentional bias mechanisms when constructing theoretical models of, and interventions that target, particular emotional disorders. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  8. Negative Example Selection for Protein Function Prediction: The NoGO Database

    PubMed Central

    Youngs, Noah; Penfold-Brown, Duncan; Bonneau, Richard; Shasha, Dennis

    2014-01-01

    Negative examples – genes that are known not to carry out a given protein function – are rarely recorded in genome and proteome annotation databases, such as the Gene Ontology database. Negative examples are required, however, for several of the most powerful machine learning methods for integrative protein function prediction. Most protein function prediction efforts have relied on a variety of heuristics for the choice of negative examples. Determining the accuracy of methods for negative example prediction is itself a non-trivial task, given that the Open World Assumption as applied to gene annotations rules out many traditional validation metrics. We present a rigorous comparison of these heuristics, utilizing a temporal holdout, and a novel evaluation strategy for negative examples. We add to this comparison several algorithms adapted from Positive-Unlabeled learning scenarios in text-classification, which are the current state of the art methods for generating negative examples in low-density annotation contexts. Lastly, we present two novel algorithms of our own construction, one based on empirical conditional probability, and the other using topic modeling applied to genes and annotations. We demonstrate that our algorithms achieve significantly fewer incorrect negative example predictions than the current state of the art, using multiple benchmarks covering multiple organisms. Our methods may be applied to generate negative examples for any type of method that deals with protein function, and to this end we provide a database of negative examples in several well-studied organisms, for general use (The NoGO database, available at: bonneaulab.bio.nyu.edu/nogo.html). PMID:24922051

  9. Improving compound-protein interaction prediction by building up highly credible negative samples.

    PubMed

    Liu, Hui; Sun, Jianjiang; Guan, Jihong; Zheng, Jie; Zhou, Shuigeng

    2015-06-15

    Computational prediction of compound-protein interactions (CPIs) is of great importance for drug design and development, as genome-scale experimental validation of CPIs is not only time-consuming but also prohibitively expensive. With the availability of an increasing number of validated interactions, the performance of computational prediction approaches is severely impended by the lack of reliable negative CPI samples. A systematic method of screening reliable negative sample becomes critical to improving the performance of in silico prediction methods. This article aims at building up a set of highly credible negative samples of CPIs via an in silico screening method. As most existing computational models assume that similar compounds are likely to interact with similar target proteins and achieve remarkable performance, it is rational to identify potential negative samples based on the converse negative proposition that the proteins dissimilar to every known/predicted target of a compound are not much likely to be targeted by the compound and vice versa. We integrated various resources, including chemical structures, chemical expression profiles and side effects of compounds, amino acid sequences, protein-protein interaction network and functional annotations of proteins, into a systematic screening framework. We first tested the screened negative samples on six classical classifiers, and all these classifiers achieved remarkably higher performance on our negative samples than on randomly generated negative samples for both human and Caenorhabditis elegans. We then verified the negative samples on three existing prediction models, including bipartite local model, Gaussian kernel profile and Bayesian matrix factorization, and found that the performances of these models are also significantly improved on the screened negative samples. Moreover, we validated the screened negative samples on a drug bioactivity dataset. Finally, we derived two sets of new

  10. Program ratings do not predict negative content in commercials on children's channels.

    PubMed

    Dale, Lourdes P; Klein, Jordana; DiLoreto, James; Pidano, Anne E; Borto, Jolanta W; McDonald, Kathleen; Olson, Heather; Neace, William P

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the presence of negative content in commercials airing on 3 children's channels (Disney Channel, Nickelodeon, and Cartoon Network). The 1681 commercials were coded with a reliable coding system and content comparisons were made. Although the majority of the commercials were coded as neutral, negative content was present in 13.5% of commercials. This rate was significantly more than the predicted value of zero and more similar to the rates cited in previous research examining content during sporting events. The rate of negative content was less than, but not significantly different from, the rate of positive content. Thus, our findings did not support our hypothesis that there would be more commercials with positive content than with negative content. Logistic regression analysis indicated that channel, and not rating, was a better predictor of the presence of overall negative content and the presence of violent behaviors. Commercials airing on the Cartoon Network had significantly more negative content, and those airing on Disney Channel had significantly less negative content than the other channels. Within the individual channels, program ratings did not relate to the presence of negative content. Parents cannot assume the content of commercials will be consistent with the program rating or label. Pediatricians and psychologists should educate parents about the potential for negative content in commercials and advocate for a commercials rating system to ensure that there is greater parity between children's programs and the corresponding commercials.

  11. Human attitudes towards herpetofauna: The influence of folklore and negative values on the conservation of amphibians and reptiles in Portugal

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Human values and folklore of wildlife strongly influence the effectiveness of conservation efforts. These values and folklore may also vary with certain demographic characteristics such as gender, age, or education. Reptiles and amphibians are among the least appreciated of vertebrates and are victims of many negative values and wrong ideas resulting from the direct interpretation of folklore. We try to demonstrate how these values and folklore can affect the way people relate to them and also the possible conservation impacts on these animals. Methods A questionnaire survey distributed to 514 people in the district of Évora, Portugal, was used to obtain data regarding the hypothesis that the existence of wrong ideas and negative values contributes to the phenomenon of human-associated persecution of these animals. A structural equation model was specified in order to confirm the hypothesis about the possible relationships between the presence of perceptions and negative values about amphibians and reptiles and persecution and anti-conservation attitudes. Sociodemographic variables were also added. Results The results of the model suggest that the presence of folklore and negative values clearly predicts persecution and anti-conservation attitudes towards amphibians and reptiles. Also, the existence of folklore varies sociodemographically, but negative values concerning these animals are widespread in the population. Conclusions With the use of structural equation models, this work is a contribution to the study of how certain ideas and values can directly influence human attitudes towards herpetofauna and how they can be a serious conservation issue. PMID:22316318

  12. Transient giant negative T wave in acute anterior myocardial infarction predicts R wave recovery and preservation of left ventricular function.

    PubMed Central

    Agetsuma, H.; Hirai, M.; Hirayama, H.; Suzuki, A.; Takanaka, C.; Yabe, S.; Inagaki, H.; Takatsu, F.; Hayashi, H.; Saito, H.

    1996-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate the value of a giant negative T wave (> or = 1.0 mV) in precordial leads of 12-lead electrocardiograms in the acute phase of Q wave myocardial infarction as a predictor of myocardial salvage. METHODS: Coronary angiographic and electrocardiographic findings, left ventricular ejection fraction in the chronic stage, and levels of cardiac enzymes were compared in patients with myocardial infarction with (group GNT, n = 31) and without (group N, n = 20) a giant negative T wave. GNT patients were divided into two subgroups according to the presence (GNT:R[+], n = 10) or absence (GNT: R[-], n = 21) of R wave recovery with an amplitude > or = 0.1 mV in at least one lead that had shown Q waves. RESULTS: The maximum level of creatine kinase and the total creatine kinase were lower in group GNT compared with group N (P < 0.05). The left ventricular ejection fraction was higher in group GNT than in group N (P < 0.05). The maximum creatine kinase and total creatine kinase were lower in GNT:R(+) than in GNT:R(-) (P < 0.01). The left ventricular ejection fraction was higher in GNT:R(+) than in GNT:R(-) (P < 0.01). The frequency of R wave recovery was significantly higher when giant negative T waves appeared within 100 h of myocardial infarction or when the maximum potential was > or = 1.4 mV. The appearance of a giant negative T wave > or = 1.4 mV had a sensitivity of 90%, a specificity of 71.4%, a diagnostic accuracy of 77.4%, a positive predictive value of 60%, and a negative predictive value of 93.8% for prediction of R wave recovery. CONCLUSIONS: The appearance of a giant negative T wave, especially within 100 h of the onset of myocardial infarction, with a maximum potential of > or = 1.4 mV, may predict a reappearance of the R wave and a better left ventricular function in patients in the chronic stage of anterior myocardial infarction. PMID:8800983

  13. Prediction of lipoprotein signal peptides in Gram-negative bacteria.

    PubMed

    Juncker, Agnieszka S; Willenbrock, Hanni; Von Heijne, Gunnar; Brunak, Søren; Nielsen, Henrik; Krogh, Anders

    2003-08-01

    A method to predict lipoprotein signal peptides in Gram-negative Eubacteria, LipoP, has been developed. The hidden Markov model (HMM) was able to distinguish between lipoproteins (SPaseII-cleaved proteins), SPaseI-cleaved proteins, cytoplasmic proteins, and transmembrane proteins. This predictor was able to predict 96.8% of the lipoproteins correctly with only 0.3% false positives in a set of SPaseI-cleaved, cytoplasmic, and transmembrane proteins. The results obtained were significantly better than those of previously developed methods. Even though Gram-positive lipoprotein signal peptides differ from Gram-negatives, the HMM was able to identify 92.9% of the lipoproteins included in a Gram-positive test set. A genome search was carried out for 12 Gram-negative genomes and one Gram-positive genome. The results for Escherichia coli K12 were compared with new experimental data, and the predictions by the HMM agree well with the experimentally verified lipoproteins. A neural network-based predictor was developed for comparison, and it gave very similar results. LipoP is available as a Web server at www.cbs.dtu.dk/services/LipoP/.

  14. Predictive value of T2 relative signal intensity for response to somatostatin analogs in newly diagnosed acromegaly.

    PubMed

    Shen, Ming; Zhang, Qilin; Liu, Wenjuan; Wang, Meng; Zhu, Jingjing; Ma, Zengyi; He, Wenqiang; Li, Shiqi; Shou, Xuefei; Li, Yiming; Zhang, Zhaoyun; Ye, Hongying; He, Min; Lu, Bin; Yao, Zhenwei; Lu, Yun; Qiao, Nidan; Ye, Zhao; Zhang, Yichao; Yang, Yeping; Zhao, Yao; Wang, Yongfei

    2016-11-01

    The difficulty of predicting the efficacy of somatostatin analogs (SSA) is not fully resolved. Here, we quantitatively evaluated the predictive value of relative signal intensity (rSI) on T1- and T2-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for the short-term efficacy (3 months) of SSA therapy in patients with active acromegaly and assessed the correlation between MRI rSI and expression of somatostatin receptors (SSTR). This was a retrospective review of prospectively recorded data. Ninety-two newly diagnosed patients (37 males and 55 females) with active acromegaly were recruited. All patients were treated with pre-surgical SSA, followed by reassessment and transspenoidal surgery. rSI values were generated by calculating the ratio of SI in the tumor to the SI of normal frontal white matter. The Youden indices were calculated to determine the optimal cutoff of rSI to determine the efficacy of SSA. The correlation between rSI and expression of SSTR2/5 was analyzed by the Spearman rank correlation coefficient. T2 rSI was strongly correlated with biochemical sensitivity to SSA. The cutoff value of T2 rSI to distinguish biochemical sensitivity was 1.205, with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 81.5 % and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 77.3 %. No correlation was found between MRI and tumor size sensitivity. Moreover, T2 rSI was negatively correlated with the expression of SSTR5. T2 rSI correlates with the expression of SSTR5 and quantitatively predicts the biochemical efficacy of SSA in acromegaly.

  15. A comparison of positive and negative alcohol expectancy and value and their multiplicative composite as predictors of post-treatment abstinence survivorship.

    PubMed

    Jones, B T; McMahon, J

    1996-01-01

    Within social learning theory, positive alcohol expectancies represent motivation to drink and negative expectancies, motivation to restrain. It is also recognized that a subjective evaluation of expectancies ought to moderate their impact, although the evidence for this in social drinkers is problematic. This paper addresses the speculation that the moderating effect will be more evident in clinical populations. This study shows that (i) both expectancy and value reliably, independently and equally predict clients' abstinence survivorship following discharge from a treatment programme (and that this is almost entirely confined to the negative rather than positive terms). When (ii) expectancy evaluations are processed against expectancy through multiplicative composites (i.e. expectancy x value), their predictive power is only equivalent to either expectancy or value on its own. However (iii) when the multiplicative composite is assessed following the statistical guidelines advocated by Evans (1991) (i.e. within the same model as its constituents, expectancy and value) the increase in outcome variance explained by its inclusion is negligible and casts doubt upon its use in alcohol research. This does not appear to apply to value, however, and its possible role in treatment is discussed.

  16. Number of Negative Lymph Nodes Can Predict Survival after Postmastectomy Radiotherapy According to Different Breast Cancer Subtypes

    PubMed Central

    Wu, San-Gang; Peng, Fang; Zhou, Juan; Sun, Jia-Yuan; Li, Feng-Yan; Lin, Qin; Lin, Huan-Xin; Bao, Yong; He, Zhen-Yu

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: To assess the prognostic value of the number of negative lymph nodes (NLNs) in breast cancer patients with positive axillary lymph nodes after mastectomy and its predictive value for radiotherapy efficacy of different breast cancer subtypes (BCS). Methods: The records of 1,260 breast cancer patients with positive axillary lymph nodes who received mastectomy between January 1998 and December 2007 were reviewed. The prognostic impact and predictive value of the number of NLNs with respect to locoregional recurrence-free survival (LRFS), disease-free survival (DFS), and overall survival (OS) were analyzed. Results: The median follow-up time was 58 months, and 444 patients (35.2%) received postmastectomy radiotherapy (PMRT). Univariate and multivariate Cox survival analysis indicated the number of NLNs was an independent prognostic factor of LRFS, DFS, and OS. Patients with a higher number of NLNs had better survival. PMRT improved the LRFS of patients with ≤ 8 NLNs ( p < 0.001), while failing to improve the LRFS of patients with > 8 NLNs (p = 0.075). In patients with luminal A subtype, PMRT improved the LRFS, DFS, and OS of patients with ≤ 8 NLNs, but in patients with > 8 NLNs only the LRFS was improved. For patients with luminal B subtype, PMRT only improved the LRFS of patients with ≤ 8 NLNs. The number of NLNs had no predictive value for the efficacy with PMRT in Her2+ and triple-negative subtypes. Conclusions: The number of NLNs is a prognostic indicator in patients with node-positive breast cancer, and it can predict the efficacy of PMRT according to different BCS. PMID:25663944

  17. When bad moods may not be so bad: Valuing negative affect is associated with weakened affect-health links.

    PubMed

    Luong, Gloria; Wrzus, Cornelia; Wagner, Gert G; Riediger, Michaela

    2016-04-01

    Bad moods are considered "bad" not only because they may be aversive experiences in and of themselves, but also because they are associated with poorer psychosocial functioning and health. We propose that people differ in their negative affect valuation (NAV; the extent to which negative affective states are valued as pleasant, useful/helpful, appropriate, and meaningful experiences) and that affect-health links are moderated by NAV. These predictions were tested in a life span sample of 365 participants ranging from 14-88 years of age using reports of momentary negative affect and physical well-being (via experience sampling) and assessments of NAV and psychosocial and physical functioning (via computer-assisted personal interviews and behavioral measures of hand grip strength). Our study demonstrated that the more individuals valued negative affect, the less pronounced (and sometimes even nonexistent) were the associations between everyday experiences of negative affect and a variety of indicators of poorer psychosocial functioning (i.e., emotional health problems, social integration) and physical health (i.e., number of health conditions, health complaints, hand grip strength, momentary physical well-being). Exploratory analyses revealed that valuing positive affect was not associated with the analogous moderating effects as NAV. These findings suggest that it may be particularly important to consider NAV in models of affect-health links. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  18. Interrelation and independence of positive and negative psychological constructs in predicting general treatment adherence in coronary artery patients - Results from the THORESCI study.

    PubMed

    van Montfort, Eveline; Denollet, Johan; Widdershoven, Jos; Kupper, Nina

    2016-09-01

    In cardiac patients, positive psychological factors have been associated with improved medical and psychological outcomes. The current study examined the interrelation between and independence of multiple positive and negative psychological constructs. Furthermore, the potential added predictive value of positive psychological functioning regarding the prediction of patients' treatment adherence and participation in cardiac rehabilitation (CR) was investigated. 409 percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) patients were included (mean age = 65.6 ± 9.5; 78% male). Self-report questionnaires were administered one month post-PCI. Positive psychological constructs included positive affect (GMS) and optimism (LOT-R); negative constructs were depression (PHQ-9, BDI), anxiety (GAD-7) and negative affect (GMS). Six months post-PCI self-reported general adherence (MOS) and CR participation were determined. Factor Analysis (Oblimin rotation) revealed two components (r = − 0.56), reflecting positive and negative psychological constructs. Linear regression analyses showed that in unadjusted analyses both optimism and positive affect were associated with better general treatment adherence at six months (p < 0.05). In adjusted analyses, optimism's predictive values remained, independent of sex, age, PCI indication, depression and anxiety. Univariate logistic regression analysis showed that in patients with a cardiac history, positive affect was significantly associated with CR participation. After controlling for multiple covariates, this relation was no longer significant. Positive and negative constructs should be considered as two distinct dimensions. Positive psychological constructs (i.e. optimism) may be of incremental value to negative psychological constructs in predicting patients' treatment adherence. A more complete view of a patients' psychological functioning will open new avenues for treatment. Additional research is needed to investigate the relationship between

  19. Predicting Negative Emotions Based on Mobile Phone Usage Patterns: An Exploratory Study

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Pei-Ching; Chang, Chia-Chi; Chiang, Jung-Hsien; Chen, Ying-Yeh

    2016-01-01

    Background Prompt recognition and intervention of negative emotions is crucial for patients with depression. Mobile phones and mobile apps are suitable technologies that can be used to recognize negative emotions and intervene if necessary. Objective Mobile phone usage patterns can be associated with concurrent emotional states. The objective of this study is to adapt machine-learning methods to analyze such patterns for the prediction of negative emotion. Methods We developed an Android-based app to capture emotional states and mobile phone usage patterns, which included call logs (and use of apps). Visual analog scales (VASs) were used to report negative emotions in dimensions of depression, anxiety, and stress. In the system-training phase, participants were requested to tag their emotions for 14 consecutive days. Five feature-selection methods were used to determine individual usage patterns and four machine-learning methods were tested. Finally, rank product scoring was used to select the best combination to construct the prediction model. In the system evaluation phase, participants were then requested to verify the predicted negative emotions for at least 5 days. Results Out of 40 enrolled healthy participants, we analyzed data from 28 participants, including 30% (9/28) women with a mean (SD) age of 29.2 (5.1) years with sufficient emotion tags. The combination of time slots of 2 hours, greedy forward selection, and Naïve Bayes method was chosen for the prediction model. We further validated the personalized models in 18 participants who performed at least 5 days of model evaluation. Overall, the predictive accuracy for negative emotions was 86.17%. Conclusion We developed a system capable of predicting negative emotions based on mobile phone usage patterns. This system has potential for ecological momentary intervention (EMI) for depressive disorders by automatically recognizing negative emotions and providing people with preventive treatments before it

  20. Phosphorene/rhenium disulfide heterojunction-based negative differential resistance device for multi-valued logic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shim, Jaewoo; Oh, Seyong; Kang, Dong-Ho; Jo, Seo-Hyeon; Ali, Muhammad Hasnain; Choi, Woo-Young; Heo, Keun; Jeon, Jaeho; Lee, Sungjoo; Kim, Minwoo; Song, Young Jae; Park, Jin-Hong

    2016-11-01

    Recently, negative differential resistance devices have attracted considerable attention due to their folded current-voltage characteristic, which presents multiple threshold voltage values. Because of this remarkable property, studies associated with the negative differential resistance devices have been explored for realizing multi-valued logic applications. Here we demonstrate a negative differential resistance device based on a phosphorene/rhenium disulfide (BP/ReS2) heterojunction that is formed by type-III broken-gap band alignment, showing high peak-to-valley current ratio values of 4.2 and 6.9 at room temperature and 180 K, respectively. Also, the carrier transport mechanism of the BP/ReS2 negative differential resistance device is investigated in detail by analysing the tunnelling and diffusion currents at various temperatures with the proposed analytic negative differential resistance device model. Finally, we demonstrate a ternary inverter as a multi-valued logic application. This study of a two-dimensional material heterojunction is a step forward toward future multi-valued logic device research.

  1. Phosphorene/rhenium disulfide heterojunction-based negative differential resistance device for multi-valued logic

    PubMed Central

    Shim, Jaewoo; Oh, Seyong; Kang, Dong-Ho; Jo, Seo-Hyeon; Ali, Muhammad Hasnain; Choi, Woo-Young; Heo, Keun; Jeon, Jaeho; Lee, Sungjoo; Kim, Minwoo; Song, Young Jae; Park, Jin-Hong

    2016-01-01

    Recently, negative differential resistance devices have attracted considerable attention due to their folded current–voltage characteristic, which presents multiple threshold voltage values. Because of this remarkable property, studies associated with the negative differential resistance devices have been explored for realizing multi-valued logic applications. Here we demonstrate a negative differential resistance device based on a phosphorene/rhenium disulfide (BP/ReS2) heterojunction that is formed by type-III broken-gap band alignment, showing high peak-to-valley current ratio values of 4.2 and 6.9 at room temperature and 180 K, respectively. Also, the carrier transport mechanism of the BP/ReS2 negative differential resistance device is investigated in detail by analysing the tunnelling and diffusion currents at various temperatures with the proposed analytic negative differential resistance device model. Finally, we demonstrate a ternary inverter as a multi-valued logic application. This study of a two-dimensional material heterojunction is a step forward toward future multi-valued logic device research. PMID:27819264

  2. Predictive value of uterine Doppler waveform during pregnancies complicated by diabetes.

    PubMed

    Haddad, B; Uzan, M; Tchobroutsky, C; Uzan, S; Papiernik-Berkhauer, E

    1993-01-01

    Diabetes, whether or not it is insulin deficient, is frequently associated with vascular complications during pregnancies. It is accepted nowadays that the uterine artery velocity waveform is predictive concerning pregnancy-induced hypertension (PIH) and its complications. It thus seemed interesting to analyse the predictivity of vascular complications of diabetes by using uterine artery velocity waveforms. We have thus explored 37 diabetic patients [group 1: insulin-deficient diabetes (IDD), n = 10; group 2: gestational IDD, n = 6; and gestational non-IDD, n = 21). We have found vascular complications for 10 patients, divided between all 2 groups: 2 pre-eclampsia, 2 fetal suffering before any labour, 2 cases of intra-uterine growth retardation (including a trisomy 18) and 5 PIH. The uterine artery velocimetry measurement has been found to be pathological 5 times, and always in patients who later developed vascular complications. Among this selected population and excluding the trisomy 18, the sensitivity is of 44.5%, the specificity of 100%, the positive predictive value of 100%, and the negative predictive value of 84.3%. If these results are confirmed, this examination could be an excellent marker of the vascular risk and thus would have its place during systematic survey of pregnancies complicated by diabetes.

  3. A prospective analysis of physical examination findings in the diagnosis of facial fractures: Determining predictive value

    PubMed Central

    Timashpolsky, Alisa; Dagum, Alexander B; Sayeed, Syed M; Romeiser, Jamie L; Rosenfeld, Elisheva A; Conkling, Nicole

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND There are >150,000 patient visits per year to emergency rooms for facial trauma. The reliability of a computed tomography (CT) scan has made it the primary modality for diagnosing facial skeletal injury, with the physical examination playing more a cursory role. Knowing the predictive value of physical findings in facial skeletal injuries may enable more appropriate use of imaging and health care resources. OBJECTIVE A blinded prospective study was undertaken to assess the predictive value of physical examination findings in detecting maxillofacial fracture in trauma patients, and in determining whether a patient will require surgical intervention. METHODS Over a four-month period, the authors’ team examined patients admitted with facial trauma to the emergency department of their hospital. The evaluating physician completed a standardized physical examination evaluation form indicating the physical findings. Corresponding CT scans and surgical records were then reviewed, and the results recorded by a plastic surgeon who was blinded to the results of the physical examination. RESULTS A total of 57 patients met the inclusion criteria; there were 44 male and 13 female patients. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of grouped physical examination findings were determined in major areas. In further analysis, specific examination findings with n≥9 (15%) were also reported. CONCLUSIONS The data demonstrated a high negative predictive value of at least 90% for orbital floor, zygomatic, mandibular and nasal bone fractures compared with CT scan. Furthermore, none of the patients who did not have a physical examination finding for a particular facial fracture required surgery for that fracture. Thus, the instrument performed well at ruling out fractures in these areas when there were none. Ultimately, these results may help reduce unnecessary radiation and costly imaging in patients with facial trauma without

  4. A prospective analysis of physical examination findings in the diagnosis of facial fractures: Determining predictive value.

    PubMed

    Timashpolsky, Alisa; Dagum, Alexander B; Sayeed, Syed M; Romeiser, Jamie L; Rosenfeld, Elisheva A; Conkling, Nicole

    2016-01-01

    There are >150,000 patient visits per year to emergency rooms for facial trauma. The reliability of a computed tomography (CT) scan has made it the primary modality for diagnosing facial skeletal injury, with the physical examination playing more a cursory role. Knowing the predictive value of physical findings in facial skeletal injuries may enable more appropriate use of imaging and health care resources. A blinded prospective study was undertaken to assess the predictive value of physical examination findings in detecting maxillofacial fracture in trauma patients, and in determining whether a patient will require surgical intervention. Over a four-month period, the authors' team examined patients admitted with facial trauma to the emergency department of their hospital. The evaluating physician completed a standardized physical examination evaluation form indicating the physical findings. Corresponding CT scans and surgical records were then reviewed, and the results recorded by a plastic surgeon who was blinded to the results of the physical examination. A total of 57 patients met the inclusion criteria; there were 44 male and 13 female patients. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of grouped physical examination findings were determined in major areas. In further analysis, specific examination findings with n≥9 (15%) were also reported. The data demonstrated a high negative predictive value of at least 90% for orbital floor, zygomatic, mandibular and nasal bone fractures compared with CT scan. Furthermore, none of the patients who did not have a physical examination finding for a particular facial fracture required surgery for that fracture. Thus, the instrument performed well at ruling out fractures in these areas when there were none. Ultimately, these results may help reduce unnecessary radiation and costly imaging in patients with facial trauma without facial fractures.

  5. The predictive value of baseline NAA/Cr for treatment response of first-episode schizophrenia: A ¹H MRS study.

    PubMed

    Liu, Weibo; Yu, Hualiang; Jiang, Biao; Pan, Bing; Yu, Shaohua; Li, Huichun; Zheng, Leilei

    2015-07-23

    The study focused on the predictive value of baseline metabolite ratios in bilateral hippocampus of first-episode schizophrenia by using proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy ((1)H MRS). (1)H MRS data were acquired from 23 hallucination and 17 non-hallucination first-episode schizophrenia patients compared with 17 healthy participants. Clinical characteristics of patients were rated using the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) before and after 3-month treatment. The schizophrenia patients showed lower NAA/Cr ratio than healthy participants respectively (p=0.024; p=0.001), and non-hallucination patients had even lower NAA/Cr ratio than hallucination patients (p=0.033). After 3-month treatment, hallucination patients had greater improvement in negative symptoms than non-hallucination patients (p=0.018). The reduction of PANSS total score and negative factor score was positively correlated with the left NAA/Cr in both group patients (p<0.05). Given that the bilateral hippocampal baseline NAA/Cr had predictive value for the whole treatment response, and the left hippocampal NAA/Cr can predict the prognosis of negative symptoms during acute phase medication in first-episode schizophrenia. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Prediction of lipoprotein signal peptides in Gram-negative bacteria

    PubMed Central

    Juncker, Agnieszka S.; Willenbrock, Hanni; von Heijne, Gunnar; Brunak, Søren; Nielsen, Henrik; Krogh, Anders

    2003-01-01

    A method to predict lipoprotein signal peptides in Gram-negative Eubacteria, LipoP, has been developed. The hidden Markov model (HMM) was able to distinguish between lipoproteins (SPaseII-cleaved proteins), SPaseI-cleaved proteins, cytoplasmic proteins, and transmembrane proteins. This predictor was able to predict 96.8% of the lipoproteins correctly with only 0.3% false positives in a set of SPaseI-cleaved, cytoplasmic, and transmembrane proteins. The results obtained were significantly better than those of previously developed methods. Even though Gram-positive lipoprotein signal peptides differ from Gram-negatives, the HMM was able to identify 92.9% of the lipoproteins included in a Gram-positive test set. A genome search was carried out for 12 Gram-negative genomes and one Gram-positive genome. The results for Escherichia coli K12 were compared with new experimental data, and the predictions by the HMM agree well with the experimentally verified lipoproteins. A neural network-based predictor was developed for comparison, and it gave very similar results. LipoP is available as a Web server at www.cbs.dtu.dk/services/LipoP/. PMID:12876315

  7. Beyond Generalized Sexual Prejudice: Need for Closure Predicts Negative Attitudes Toward Bisexual People Relative to Gay/Lesbian People.

    PubMed

    Burke, Sara E; Dovidio, John F; LaFrance, Marianne; Przedworski, Julia M; Perry, Sylvia P; Phelan, Sean M; Burgess, Diana J; Hardeman, Rachel R; Yeazel, Mark W; van Ryn, Michelle

    2017-07-01

    Increasing evidence suggests that bisexual people are sometimes evaluated more negatively than heterosexual and gay/lesbian people. A common theoretical account for this discrepancy argues that bisexuality is perceived by some as introducing ambiguity into a binary model of sexuality. The present brief report tests a single key prediction of this theory, that evaluations of bisexual people have a unique relationship with Need for Closure (NFC), a dispositional preference for simple ways of structuring information. Participants ( n =3406) were heterosexual medical students from a stratified random sample of 49 U.S. medical schools. As in prior research, bisexual targets were evaluated slightly more negatively than gay/lesbian targets overall. More importantly for the present investigation, higher levels of NFC predicted negative evaluations of bisexual people after accounting for negative evaluations of gay/lesbian people, and higher levels of NFC also predicted an explicit evaluative preference for gay/lesbian people over bisexual people. These results suggest that differences in evaluations of sexual minority groups partially reflect different psychological processes, and that NFC may have a special relevance for bisexual targets even beyond its general association with prejudice. The practical value of testing this theory on new physicians is also discussed.

  8. Negative measurement sensitivity values of planar capacitive imaging probes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yin, Xiaokang; Chen, Guoming; Li, Wei; Hutchins, David

    2014-02-01

    The measurement sensitivity distribution of planar capacitive imaging (CI) probes describes how effectively each region in the sensing area is contributing to the measured charge signal on the sensing electrode. It can be used to determine the imaging ability of a CI probe. It is found in previous work that, there are regions in the sensing area where the change of the charge output and the change of targeting physical parameter are of opposite trends. This opposite correlation implies that the measurement sensitivity values in such regions are negative. In this work, the cause of negative sensitivity is discussed. Experiments are also designed and performed so as to verify the existence of negative sensitivity and study the factors that may affect the negative sensitivity distributions.

  9. Value of a negative aeroallergen skin-prick test result in the diagnosis of asthma in young adults: correlative study with methacholine challenge testing.

    PubMed

    Graif, Yael; Yigla, Mordechai; Tov, Naveh; Kramer, Mordechai R

    2002-09-01

    None of the existing tests for the diagnosis of asthma are considered to be definitive. Certain circumstances require prompt diagnosis, and a test able to predict the absence of asthma would be very useful. To evaluate the contribution of a skin-prick test (SPT) to the diagnostic workup of subjects with suspected asthma. The study included three groups of subjects aged 18 to 24 years: group A, asthmatic patients (n = 175); group B, control subjects (n = 100); and group C, subjects with suspected asthma (n = 150) with normal spirometry findings and a negative exercise challenge test result. All underwent an SPT to a battery of common aeroallergens, and group C underwent a methacholine challenge test (MCT) in addition. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive values (NPV) of the SPT were calculated using provocative concentrations of methacholine causing a 20% fall in FEV(1) (PC(20)) of < 4 mg/mL and < 8 mg/mL as diagnostic cutoff values for asthma in the MCT. Bayes' formula was used to determine posttest probabilities of having asthma, both for positive and negative SPT results. A positive SPT result to at least one allergen was found in 95.5%, 54%, and 69% of patients in the three groups, respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, and NPV of the SPT were 90.7%, 52.0%, and 84.8%, respectively, with a cutoff value of PC(20) < 8 mg/mL. The lower cutoff, PC(20) < 4 mg/mL, increased the sensitivity and NPV to 98.2% and 97.8%, respectively. A negative SPT result decreased the probability of having asthma by 10-fold to 20-fold in subjects whose pretest probability was low to moderate. Incorporating an SPT into the workup of subjects with suspected asthma can reduce the cost of this process significantly. The SPT may be used as a simple, fast, safe, inexpensive, and reliable method to predict the absence of asthma in young adults.

  10. The value of temporary external lumbar CSF drainage in predicting the outcome of shunting on normal pressure hydrocephalus

    PubMed Central

    Walchenbach, R; Geiger, E; Thomeer, R; Vanneste, J

    2002-01-01

    Objective: It has been reported that temporary external lumbar CSF drainage (ELD) is a very accurate test for predicting the outcome after ventricular shunting in patients with normal pressure hydrocephalus (NPH). However, only a limited number of patients have been studied for assessing the predictive accuracy of ELD. Therefore, the value of ELD in predicting the outcome after a ventriculoperitoneal shunt in patients with presumed NPH was assessed. Methods: All patients with presumed NPH were invited to participate in this study. Clinical assessment, MRI, and neuropsychological evaluation were followed by a lumbar CSF tap test consisting of removing 40 ml CSF. When this test resulted in marked clinical improvement of gait impairment, mental disturbances, or both, the patient was shunted without further tests. In patients with either questionable or no improvement after the CSF tap test, ELD was carried out. The value of ELD for predicting the outcome after shunting was calculated by correlating the results of ELD with that of ventriculoperitoneal shunting. Results: Between January 1994 and December 2000, 49 presumed NPH patients from three institutes were included. Forty three had idiopathic, and the remaining six had secondary NPH. Forty eight patients were shunted; 39 had an ELD of whom 38 completed the test. After 2 months 35 of the 48 (73%) shunted patients had improved. The predictive value of a positive ELD was 87% (95% confidence interval (95% CI) 62–98) and that of a negative ELD 36% (95% CI 17–59). In two patients serious test related complications (meningitis) occurred without residual deficit. Conclusion: The study suggests that although the predictive value of a positive ELD is high, that of a negative ELD is deceptively low because of the high rate of false negative results. The costs and invasiveness of the test and the possibility of serious test related complications further limits its usefulness in managing patients with presumed NPH. PMID

  11. Predictive Value of Panoramic Radiography for Injury of Inferior Alveolar Nerve After Mandibular Third Molar Surgery.

    PubMed

    Su, Naichuan; van Wijk, Arjen; Berkhout, Erwin; Sanderink, Gerard; De Lange, Jan; Wang, Hang; van der Heijden, Geert J M G

    2017-04-01

    The purpose of the present systematic review was to assess the added value of panoramic radiography in predicting postoperative injury of the inferior alveolar nerve (IAN) in the decision-making before mandibular third molar (MM3) surgery. MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched electronically to identify the diagnostic accuracy of studies that had assessed the predictive value of 7 panoramic radiographic signs, including root-related signs (darkening of the root, deflection of the root, narrowing of the root, and dark and bifid apex of the root) and canal-related signs (interruption of the white line of the canal, diversion of the canal, and narrowing of the canal) for IAN injury after MM3 surgery. A total of 8 studies qualified for the meta-analysis. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of the 7 signs ranged from 0.06 to 0.49 and 0.81 to 0.97, respectively. The area under the summary area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranged from 0.42 to 0.89. The pooled positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) ranged from 7.5 to 26.6% and 95.9 to 97.7%, respectively. The added value of a positive sign for ruling in an IAN injury (PPV minus the prior probability) ranged from 3.4 to 22.2%. The added value of a negative sign for ruling out an IAN injury (NPV minus [1 minus the prior probability]) ranged from 0.1 to 2.2%. For all 7 signs, the added value of panoramic radiography is too low to consider it appropriate for ruling out postoperative IAN in the decision-making before MM3 surgery. The added value of panoramic radiography for determining the presence of diversion of the canal, interruption of the white line of the canal, and darkening of the root can be considered sufficient for ruling in the risk of postoperative IAN injury in the decision-making before MM3 surgery. Copyright © 2016 American Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. [Predictive value of breast imaging report and database system (BIRADS) to detect cancer in a reference regional hospital].

    PubMed

    Bellolio, Enrique; Pineda, Viviana; Burgos, María Eugenia; Iriarte, M José; Becker, Renato; Araya, Juan Carlos; Villaseca, Miguel; Mardones, Noldy

    2015-12-01

    To validate the BIRADS in mammography, the calculation of its predictive value in each center is required, as recommended by the American College of Radiology. To determine the predictive value of the BIRADS system in our center. All ultrasound guided needle percutaneous biopsies, performed at our center between 2006 and 2010 were reviewed. Predictive value, sensitivity, specificity and diagnostic accuracy of BIRADS were calculated, with a confidence interval of 95%. Of 1,313 biopsies available, 1,058 met the inclusion criteria. Fifty eight percent of biopsies were performed to women with mammographies classified as BIRADS 4 or 5. The presence of cancer in mammographies classified as BIRADS 0 was 4%. The prevalence of cancer for mammographies BIRADS 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 were 0, 3, 2.7, 17.7 and 72.4% respectively. The positive and negative predictive values of BIRADS classification were 55 and 92 % respectively. In our institution BIRADS classification 4 and 5 has a high positive predictive value for detecting cancer as in developed countries.

  13. The reliability, validity, sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale.

    PubMed

    Chen, Chia-Wei; Chu, Hsin; Tsai, Chia-Fen; Yang, Hui-Ling; Tsai, Jui-Chen; Chung, Min-Huey; Liao, Yuan-Mei; Chi, Mei-Ju; Chou, Kuei-Ru

    2015-11-01

    The purpose of this study was to translate the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale into Chinese and to evaluate the psychometric properties (reliability and validity) and the diagnostic properties (sensitivity, specificity and predictive values) of the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale. The accurate detection of early dementia requires screening tools with favourable cross-cultural linguistic and appropriate sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values, particularly for Chinese-speaking populations. This was a cross-sectional, descriptive study. Overall, 130 participants suspected to have cognitive impairment were enrolled in the study. A test-retest for determining reliability was scheduled four weeks after the initial test. Content validity was determined by five experts, whereas construct validity was established by using contrasted group technique. The participants' clinical diagnoses were used as the standard in calculating the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value. The study revealed that the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale exhibited a test-retest reliability of 0.90, an internal consistency reliability of 0.71, an inter-rater reliability (kappa value) of 0.88 and a content validity index of 0.97. Both the patients and healthy contrast group exhibited significant differences in their cognitive ability. The optimal cut-off points for the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale in the test for mild cognitive impairment and dementia were 24 and 22, respectively; moreover, for these two conditions, the sensitivities of the scale were 0.79 and 0.76, the specificities were 0.91 and 0.81, the areas under the curve were 0.85 and 0.78, the positive predictive values were 0.99 and 0.83 and the negative predictive values were 0.96 and 0.91 respectively. The Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale

  14. Performance of the dipstick screening test as a predictor of negative urine culture

    PubMed Central

    Marques, Alexandre Gimenes; Doi, André Mario; Pasternak, Jacyr; Damascena, Márcio dos Santos; França, Carolina Nunes; Martino, Marinês Dalla Valle

    2017-01-01

    ABSTRACT Objective To investigate whether the urine dipstick screening test can be used to predict urine culture results. Methods A retrospective study conducted between January and December 2014 based on data from 8,587 patients with a medical order for urine dipstick test, urine sediment analysis and urine culture. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were determined and ROC curve analysis was performed. Results The percentage of positive cultures was 17.5%. Nitrite had 28% sensitivity and 99% specificity, with positive and negative predictive values of 89% and 87%, respectively. Leukocyte esterase had 79% sensitivity and 84% specificity, with positive and negative predictive values of 51% and 95%, respectively. The combination of positive nitrite or positive leukocyte esterase tests had 85% sensitivity and 84% specificity, with positive and negative predictive values of 53% and 96%, respectively. Positive urinary sediment (more than ten leukocytes per microliter) had 92% sensitivity and 71% specificity, with positive and negative predictive values of 40% and 98%, respectively. The combination of nitrite positive test and positive urinary sediment had 82% sensitivity and 99% specificity, with positive and negative predictive values of 91% and 98%, respectively. The combination of nitrite or leukocyte esterase positive tests and positive urinary sediment had the highest sensitivity (94%) and specificity (84%), with positive and negative predictive values of 58% and 99%, respectively. Based on ROC curve analysis, the best indicator of positive urine culture was the combination of positives leukocyte esterase or nitrite tests and positive urinary sediment, followed by positives leukocyte and nitrite tests, positive urinary sediment alone, positive leukocyte esterase test alone, positive nitrite test alone and finally association of positives nitrite and urinary sediment (AUC: 0.845, 0.844, 0.817, 0.814, 0.635 and 0.626, respectively

  15. ClubSub-P: Cluster-Based Subcellular Localization Prediction for Gram-Negative Bacteria and Archaea

    PubMed Central

    Paramasivam, Nagarajan; Linke, Dirk

    2011-01-01

    The subcellular localization (SCL) of proteins provides important clues to their function in a cell. In our efforts to predict useful vaccine targets against Gram-negative bacteria, we noticed that misannotated start codons frequently lead to wrongly assigned SCLs. This and other problems in SCL prediction, such as the relatively high false-positive and false-negative rates of some tools, can be avoided by applying multiple prediction tools to groups of homologous proteins. Here we present ClubSub-P, an online database that combines existing SCL prediction tools into a consensus pipeline from more than 600 proteomes of fully sequenced microorganisms. On top of the consensus prediction at the level of single sequences, the tool uses clusters of homologous proteins from Gram-negative bacteria and from Archaea to eliminate false-positive and false-negative predictions. ClubSub-P can assign the SCL of proteins from Gram-negative bacteria and Archaea with high precision. The database is searchable, and can easily be expanded using either new bacterial genomes or new prediction tools as they become available. This will further improve the performance of the SCL prediction, as well as the detection of misannotated start codons and other annotation errors. ClubSub-P is available online at http://toolkit.tuebingen.mpg.de/clubsubp/ PMID:22073040

  16. Parametric Bayesian priors and better choice of negative examples improve protein function prediction.

    PubMed

    Youngs, Noah; Penfold-Brown, Duncan; Drew, Kevin; Shasha, Dennis; Bonneau, Richard

    2013-05-01

    Computational biologists have demonstrated the utility of using machine learning methods to predict protein function from an integration of multiple genome-wide data types. Yet, even the best performing function prediction algorithms rely on heuristics for important components of the algorithm, such as choosing negative examples (proteins without a given function) or determining key parameters. The improper choice of negative examples, in particular, can hamper the accuracy of protein function prediction. We present a novel approach for choosing negative examples, using a parameterizable Bayesian prior computed from all observed annotation data, which also generates priors used during function prediction. We incorporate this new method into the GeneMANIA function prediction algorithm and demonstrate improved accuracy of our algorithm over current top-performing function prediction methods on the yeast and mouse proteomes across all metrics tested. Code and Data are available at: http://bonneaulab.bio.nyu.edu/funcprop.html

  17. Can overt diabetes mellitus be predicted by an early A1C value in gestational diabetics?

    PubMed

    Granada, Catalina; Forbes, Joanna; Sangi-Haghpeykar, Haleh; Davidson, Christina

    2014-01-01

    To test the hypothesis that a hemoglobin A1C value (A1C) in early pregnancy is predictive of overt diabetes mellitus (DM) postpartum in women with gestational diabetes (GDM). In this case-control analysis of women with an early pregnancy diagnosis of GDM, we estimated the association between an early pregnancy A1C and subsequent diagnosis of DM. Women with a normal postpartum diabetic screen (controls) were compared against those with confirmed postpartum DM (cases). Ability of A1C levels to predict DM was examined via logistic regression analysis and corresponding receiver operating characteristic values. During the 10-year study period 166 women met the inclusion criteria: 140 (84%) had normal postpartum testing (controls), and 26 (16%) were diagnosed with DM (cases). The mean A1C value was significantly higher among cases than controls (6.7 vs. 5.6, p < 0.0001, SD 1.3-5). Cases had A1Cs ranging from 5.5- 11.7%, while controls had A1Cs ranging from 4.3-7.8%. The best discriminatory cut point for postpartum DM was an A1C > 5.9% (sensitivity 81%, specificity 83%, positive predictive value 47%, negative predictive value Our findings suggest that an elevated early pregnancy A1C may be predictive of overt DM. Larger studies are needed to further validate this association.

  18. Predicting Positive and Negative Relationships in Large Social Networks.

    PubMed

    Wang, Guan-Nan; Gao, Hui; Chen, Lian; Mensah, Dennis N A; Fu, Yan

    2015-01-01

    In a social network, users hold and express positive and negative attitudes (e.g. support/opposition) towards other users. Those attitudes exhibit some kind of binary relationships among the users, which play an important role in social network analysis. However, some of those binary relationships are likely to be latent as the scale of social network increases. The essence of predicting latent binary relationships have recently began to draw researchers' attention. In this paper, we propose a machine learning algorithm for predicting positive and negative relationships in social networks inspired by structural balance theory and social status theory. More specifically, we show that when two users in the network have fewer common neighbors, the prediction accuracy of the relationship between them deteriorates. Accordingly, in the training phase, we propose a segment-based training framework to divide the training data into two subsets according to the number of common neighbors between users, and build a prediction model for each subset based on support vector machine (SVM). Moreover, to deal with large-scale social network data, we employ a sampling strategy that selects small amount of training data while maintaining high accuracy of prediction. We compare our algorithm with traditional algorithms and adaptive boosting of them. Experimental results of typical data sets show that our algorithm can deal with large social networks and consistently outperforms other methods.

  19. Negative symptoms in schizophrenia result from a failure to represent the expected value of rewards: Behavioral and computational modeling evidence

    PubMed Central

    Gold, James M.; Waltz, James A.; Matveeva, Tatyana M.; Kasanova, Zuzana; Strauss, Gregory P.; Herbener, Ellen S.; Collins, Anne G.E.; Frank, Michael J.

    2015-01-01

    Context Negative symptoms are a core feature of schizophrenia, but their pathophysiology remains unclear. Objective Negative symptoms are defined by the absence of normal function. However, there must be a productive mechanism that leads to this absence. Here, we test a reinforcement learning account suggesting that negative symptoms result from a failure to represent the expected value of rewards coupled with preserved loss avoidance learning. Design Subjects performed a probabilistic reinforcement learning paradigm involving stimulus pairs in which choices resulted in either reward or avoidance of loss. Following training, subjects indicated their valuation of the stimuli in a transfer task. Computational modeling was used to distinguish between alternative accounts of the data. Setting A tertiary care research outpatient clinic. Patients A total of 47 clinically stable patients with a diagnosis of schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder and 28 healthy volunteers participated. Patients were divided into high and low negative symptom groups. Main Outcome measures 1) The number of choices leading to reward or loss avoidance and 2) performance in the transfer phase. Quantitative fits from three different models were examined. Results High negative symptom patients demonstrated impaired learning from rewards but intact loss avoidance learning, and failed to distinguish rewarding stimuli from loss-avoiding stimuli in the transfer phase. Model fits revealed that high negative symptom patients were better characterized by an “actor-critic” model, learning stimulus-response associations, whereas controls and low negative symptom patients incorporated expected value of their actions (“Q-learning”) into the selection process. Conclusions Negative symptoms are associated with a specific reinforcement learning abnormality: High negative symptoms patients do not represent the expected value of rewards when making decisions but learn to avoid punishments through the

  20. [Predictive value of qualitative assessment of general movements for adverse outcomes at 24 months of age in infants with asphyxia].

    PubMed

    Chen, Nan; Wen, Xiao-Hong; Huang, Jin-Hua; Wang, Shui-Yun; Zhu, Yue-E

    2015-12-01

    To investigate the predictive value of the qualitative assessment of general movements (GMs) for adverse outcomes at 24 months of age in full-term infants with asphyxia. A total of 114 full-term asphyxiated infants, who were admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit between 2009 and 2012 and took part in follow-ups after discharge were included in the study. All of them received the qualitative assessment of GMs within 3 months after birth. The development quotient was determined with the Bayley Scales of Infant Development at 24 months of age. The results of the qualitative assessment of GMs within 3 months after birth showed that among 114 infants, 20 (17.5%) had poor repertoire movements and 7 (6.1%) had cramped-synchronized movements during the writhing movements period; 8 infants (7.0%) had the absence of fidgety movements during the fidgety movements period. The results of development quotient at 24 months of age showed that 7 infants (6.1%) had adverse developmental outcomes: 6 cases of cerebral palsy and mental retardation and 1 case of mental retardation. There was a poor consistency between poor repertoire movements during the writhing movements period and the developmental outcomes at 24 months of age (Kappa=-0.019; P>0.05). There was a high consistency between cramped-synchronized movements during the writhing movements period and the developmental outcomes at 24 months of age (Kappa=0.848; P<0.05), and the results of predictive values of cramped-synchronized movements were shown as follows: predictive validity 98.2%, sensitivity 85.7%, specificity 99.1%, positive predictive value 85.7%, and negative predictive value 99.1%. There was a high consistency between the absence of fidgety movements during the fidgety movements period and the developmental outcomes at 24 months of age (Kappa=0.786; P<0.05), and its predictive values were expressed as follows: predictive validity 97.4%, sensitivity 85.7%, specificity 98.1%, positive predictive value 75

  1. The predictive value of external continuous lumbar drainage, with cerebrospinal fluid outflow controlled by medium pressure valve, in normal pressure hydrocephalus.

    PubMed

    Panagiotopoulos, V; Konstantinou, D; Kalogeropoulos, A; Maraziotis, T

    2005-09-01

    Although sporadic studies have described temporary external cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) lumbar drainage as a highly accurate test for predicting the outcome after ventricular shunting in normal pressure hydrocephalus (NPH) patients, a more recent study reports that the positive predictive value of external lumbar drainage (ELD) is high but the negative predictive value is deceptively low. Therefore, we conducted a prospective study in order to evaluate the predictive value of a continuous ELD, with CSF outflow controlled by medium pressure valve, in NPH patients. Twenty-seven patients with presumed NPH were admitted to our department and CSF drainage was carried out by a temporary (ELD) with CSF outflow controlled by a medium pressure valve for five days. All patients received a ventriculoperitoneal shunt using a medium pressure valve based upon preoperative clinical and radiographic criteria of NPH, regardless of ELD outcome. Clinical evaluation of gait disturbances, urinary incontinence and mental status, and radiological evaluation with brain CT was performed prior to and after ELD test, as well as three months after shunting. Twenty-two patients were finally shunted and included in this study. In a three-month follow-up, using a previously validated score system, overall improvement after permanent shunting correlated well to improvement after ELD test (Spearman's rho = 0.462, p = 0.03). When considering any degree of improvement as a positive response, ELD test yielded high positive predictive values for all individual parameters (gait disturbances 94%, 95% CI 71%-100%, urinary incontinence 100%, 95% CI 66%-100%, and mental status 100%, 95% CI 66%-100%) but negative predictive values were low (< 50%) except for cognitive impairment (85%, 95% CI 55%-98%). This study suggests that a positive ELD-valve system test should be considered a reliable criterion for preoperative selection of shunt-responsive NPH patients. In case of a negative ELD-valve system test

  2. Predicting complex syntactic structure in real time: Processing of negative sentences in Russian.

    PubMed

    Kazanina, Nina

    2017-11-01

    In Russian negative sentences the verb's direct object may appear either in the accusative case, which is licensed by the verb (as is common cross-linguistically), or in the genitive case, which is licensed by the negation (Russian-specific "genitive-of-negation" phenomenon). Such sentences were used to investigate whether case marking is employed for anticipating syntactic structure, and whether lexical heads other than the verb can be predicted on the basis of a case-marked noun phrase. Experiment 1, a completion task, confirmed that genitive-of-negation is part of Russian speakers' active grammatical repertoire. In Experiments 2 and 3, the genitive/accusative case manipulation on the preverbal object led to shorter reading times at the negation and verb in the genitive versus accusative condition. Furthermore, Experiment 3 manipulated linear order of the direct object and the negated verb in order to distinguish whether the abovementioned facilitatory effect was predictive or integrative in nature, and concluded that the parser actively predicts a verb and (otherwise optional) negation on the basis of a preceding genitive-marked object. Similarly to a head-final language, case-marking information on preverbal noun phrases (NPs) is used by the parser to enable incremental structure building in a free-word-order language such as Russian.

  3. Predictive Value of Tertiary Lymphoid Structures Assessed by High Endothelial Venule Counts in the Neoadjuvant Setting of Triple-Negative Breast Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Song, In Hye; Heo, Sun-Hee; Bang, Won Seon; Park, Hye Seon; Park, In Ah; Kim, Young-Ae; Park, Suk Young; Roh, Jin; Gong, Gyungyub; Lee, Hee Jin

    2017-01-01

    Purpose The tertiary lymphoid structure (TLS) is an important source of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs), which have a strong prognostic and predictive value in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). A previous study reported that the levels of CXCL13 mRNA expression were associated with TLSs, but measuring the gene expression is challenging in routine practice. Therefore, this study evaluated the MECA79-positive high endothelial venule (HEV) densities and their association with the histopathologically assessed TLSs in biopsy samples. In addition, the relationship of TLSs with the CXCL13 transcript levels and clinical outcomes were examined. Materials and Methods A total of 108 TNBC patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) were studied. The amounts of TILs and TLSs were measured histopathologically using hematoxylin and eosin–stained slides. The HEV densities and TIL subpopulations were measured by immunohistochemistry for MECA79, CD3, CD8, and CD20. CXCL13mRNA expression levels using a NanoString assay (NanoString Technologies). Results The mean number of HEVs in pre-NAC biopsies was 12 (range, 0 to 72). The amounts of TILs and TLSs, HEV density, and CXCL13 expression showed robust correlations with each other. A lower pre-NAC clinical T stage, higher TIL and TLS levels, a higher HEV density, CD20-positive cell density, and CXCL13 expression were significant predictors of a pathologic complete response (pCR). Higher CD8-positive cell density and levels of CXCL13 expression were significantly associated with a better disease-free survival rate. Conclusion MECA79-positive HEV density in pre-NAC biopsies is an objective and quantitative surrogate marker of TLS and might be a valuable tool for predicting pCR of TNBC in routine pathology practice. PMID:27488875

  4. 21 CFR 868.1890 - Predictive pulmonary-function value calculator.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Predictive pulmonary-function value calculator. 868.1890 Section 868.1890 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN... pulmonary-function value calculator. (a) Identification. A predictive pulmonary-function value calculator is...

  5. 21 CFR 868.1890 - Predictive pulmonary-function value calculator.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Predictive pulmonary-function value calculator. 868.1890 Section 868.1890 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN... pulmonary-function value calculator. (a) Identification. A predictive pulmonary-function value calculator is...

  6. Psychometric schizotypy predicts psychotic-like, paranoid, and negative symptoms in daily life.

    PubMed

    Barrantes-Vidal, Neus; Chun, Charlotte A; Myin-Germeys, Inez; Kwapil, Thomas R

    2013-11-01

    Positive and negative schizotypy exhibit differential patterns of impairment in social relations, affect, and functioning in daily life. However, studies have not examined the association of schizotypy with real-world expression of psychotic-like, paranoid, and negative symptoms. The present study employed experience-sampling methodology (ESM) to assess positive and negative schizotypy in daily life in a nonclinical sample of 206 Spanish young adults. Participants were prompted randomly 8 times daily for 1 week to complete assessments of their current symptoms and experiences. Positive schizotypy was associated with psychotic-like and paranoid symptoms in daily life. Negative schizotypy was associated with a subset of these symptoms and with negative symptoms in daily life. Momentary stress was associated with psychotic-like and paranoid symptoms, but only for those high in positive schizotypy. Social stress predicted momentary psychotic-like symptoms in both positive and negative schizotypy. Time-lagged analyses indicated that stress at the preceding signal predicted psychotic-like symptoms at the current assessment, but only for individuals high in positive schizotypy. The results are consistent with models linking stress sensitivity with the experience of psychotic symptoms. The findings provide cross-cultural support for the multidimensional model of schizotypy and schizophrenia. Furthermore, the findings demonstrate that ESM is an effective method for predicting the experience of psychotic-like symptoms, as well as their precursors, in daily life. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

  7. Exercise identity and attribution properties predict negative self-conscious emotions for exercise relapse.

    PubMed

    Flora, Parminder K; Strachan, Shaelyn M; Brawley, Lawrence R; Spink, Kevin S

    2012-10-01

    Research on exercise identity (EXID) indicates that it is related to negative affect when exercisers are inconsistent or relapse. Although identity theory suggests that causal attributions about this inconsistency elicit negative self-conscious emotions of shame and guilt, no EXID studies have examined this for exercise relapse. Weiner's attribution-based theory of interpersonal motivation (2010) offers a means of testing the attribution-emotion link. Using both frameworks, we examined whether EXID and attributional properties predicted negative emotions for exercise relapse. Participants (n = 224) read an exercise relapse vignette, and then completed EXID, attributions, and emotion measures. Hierarchical multiple regression models using EXID and the attributional property of controllability significantly predicted each of shame and guilt, R² adjusted = .09, ps ≤ .001. Results support identity theory suggestions and Weiner's specific attribution-emotion hypothesis. This first demonstration of an interlinking of EXID, controllability, and negative self-conscious emotions offers more predictive utility using complementary theories than either theory alone.

  8. Reality television predicts both positive and negative outcomes for adolescent girls.

    PubMed

    Ferguson, Christopher J; Salmond, Kimberlee; Modi, Kamla

    2013-06-01

    To assess the influence of media, specifically reality television, on adolescent behavior. A total of 1141 preteen and adolescent girls (age range 11-17) answered questions related to their reality television viewing, personality, self-esteem, relational aggression, appearance focus, and desire for fame. Our results indicated that the influence of reality television on adolescent behavior is complex and potentially related to the adolescents' intended uses and gratifications for using reality television. Reality television viewing was positively related to increased self-esteem and expectations of respect in dating relationships. However, watching reality television also was related to an increased focus on appearance and willingness to compromise other values for fame. Reality television viewing did not predict relational aggression. The potential influences of reality television use on adolescent girls are both positive and negative, defying easy categorization. Copyright © 2013 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Weak values, 'negative probability', and the uncertainty principle

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Sokolovski, D.

    2007-10-15

    A quantum transition can be seen as a result of interference between various pathways (e.g., Feynman paths), which can be labeled by a variable f. An attempt to determine the value of f without destroying the coherence between the pathways produces a weak value of f. We show f to be an average obtained with an amplitude distribution which can, in general, take negative values, which, in accordance with the uncertainty principle, need not contain information about the actual range of f which contributes to the transition. It is also demonstrated that the moments of such alternating distributions have amore » number of unusual properties which may lead to a misinterpretation of the weak-measurement results. We provide a detailed analysis of weak measurements with and without post-selection. Examples include the double-slit diffraction experiment, weak von Neumann and von Neumann-like measurements, traversal time for an elastic collision, phase time, and local angular momentum.« less

  10. Testing predictive models of positive and negative affect with psychosocial, acculturation, and coping variables in a multiethnic undergraduate sample.

    PubMed

    Kuo, Ben Ch; Kwantes, Catherine T

    2014-01-01

    Despite the prevalence and popularity of research on positive and negative affect within the field of psychology, there is currently little research on affect involving the examination of cultural variables and with participants of diverse cultural and ethnic backgrounds. To the authors' knowledge, currently no empirical studies have comprehensively examined predictive models of positive and negative affect based specifically on multiple psychosocial, acculturation, and coping variables as predictors with any sample populations. Therefore, the purpose of the present study was to test the predictive power of perceived stress, social support, bidirectional acculturation (i.e., Canadian acculturation and heritage acculturation), religious coping and cultural coping (i.e., collective, avoidance, and engagement coping) in explaining positive and negative affect in a multiethnic sample of 301 undergraduate students in Canada. Two hierarchal multiple regressions were conducted, one for each affect as the dependent variable, with the above described predictors. The results supported the hypotheses and showed the two overall models to be significant in predicting affect of both kinds. Specifically, a higher level of positive affect was predicted by a lower level of perceived stress, less use of religious coping, and more use of engagement coping in dealing with stress by the participants. Higher level of negative affect, however, was predicted by a higher level of perceived stress and more use of avoidance coping in responding to stress. The current findings highlight the value and relevance of empirically examining the stress-coping-adaptation experiences of diverse populations from an affective conceptual framework, particularly with the inclusion of positive affect. Implications and recommendations for advancing future research and theoretical works in this area are considered and presented.

  11. [Clinical value of angiogenin in predicting the prognosis of patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis].

    PubMed

    Bai, Yanling; Zhu, Haiyan; Sun, Qiyu; Gu, Guozhong; Zhang, Lingyu; Li, Ying; Yang, Baofeng

    2017-09-01

    To explore the relationship between angiogenin-1/2 (Ang-1/2) and clinical parameters of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), and to assess the value of Ang-1/2 in predicting the prognosis of patients with IPF. A retrospective analysis was conducted. Ninety-one patients diagnosed as IPF by high resolution CT (HRCT) and lung biopsy admitted to Daqing Oil Field General Hospital from March 2014 to January 2015 were enrolled. The general data, serum parameters and pulmonary function parameters of all patients were collected. After treatment, all of the 91 patients were followed-up to 2 years. The patients were divided into favorable prognosis group and unfavorable prognosis group according to follow-up results. The differences in all parameters between the two groups were compared. The relationship between Ang-1, Ang-2 and lung function parameters was analyzed by Pearson correlation analysis. Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to evaluate the effect of clinical parameters on the prognosis of patients with IPF. The effect of Ang-2 in predicting prognosis of patients with IPF was analyzed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. During the 2-year follow-up period, 30 of 91 patients showed a favorable prognosis, and 55 showed an unfavorable prognosis with a poor prognosis rate of 64.71%, and 6 patients withdrew from the study due to loss of follow-up and death. Compared with the favorable prognosis group, Ang-2 level in the unfavorable prognosis group was significantly increased (μg/L: 2.88±1.63 vs. 1.89±1.22, t = 2.909, P = 0.005), but Ang-1 only showed a slight increase (μg/L: 28.70±14.26 vs. 25.62±11.95, t = 1.005, P = 0.318). The results of Pearson correlation analysis showed that Ang-2 level was negatively correlated with forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FVC1) and the percentage of carbon monoxide diffusing capacity accounting for the expected value (DLCO%: r value was -0.227 and -0.206, and P value was 0.147 and 0.253, respectively

  12. Bidirectional-Compounding Effects of Rumination and Negative Emotion in Predicting Impulsive Behavior: Implications for Emotional Cascades.

    PubMed

    Selby, Edward A; Kranzler, Amy; Panza, Emily; Fehling, Kara B

    2016-04-01

    Influenced by chaos theory, the emotional cascade model proposes that rumination and negative emotion may promote each other in a self-amplifying cycle that increases over time. Accordingly, exponential-compounding effects may better describe the relationship between rumination and negative emotion when they occur in impulsive persons, and predict impulsive behavior. Forty-seven community and undergraduate participants who reported frequent engagement in impulsive behaviors monitored their ruminative thoughts and negative emotion multiple times daily for two weeks using digital recording devices. Hypotheses were tested using cross-lagged mixed model analyses. Findings indicated that rumination predicted subsequent elevations in rumination that lasted over extended periods of time. Rumination and negative emotion predicted increased levels of each other at subsequent assessments, and exponential functions for these associations were supported. Results also supported a synergistic effect between rumination and negative emotion, predicting larger elevations in subsequent rumination and negative emotion than when one variable alone was elevated. Finally, there were synergistic effects of rumination and negative emotion in predicting number of impulsive behaviors subsequently reported. These findings are consistent with the emotional cascade model in suggesting that momentary rumination and negative emotion progressively propagate and magnify each other over time in impulsive people, promoting impulsive behavior. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  13. Praise for regret: People value regret above other negative emotions.

    PubMed

    Saffrey, Colleen; Summerville, Amy; Roese, Neal J

    2008-03-01

    What do people think about the emotion of regret? Recent demonstrations of the psychological benefits of regret have been framed against an assumption that most people find regret to be aversive, both when experienced but also when recalled later. Two studies explored lay evaluations of regret experiences, revealing them to be largely favorable rather than unfavorable. Study 1 demonstrated that regret, but not other negative emotions, was dominated by positive more than negative evaluations. In both studies 1 and 2, although participants saw a great deal of benefit from their negative emotions, regret stood out as particularly beneficial. Indeed, in study 2, regret was seen to be the most beneficial of 12 negative emotions on all five functions of: making sense of past experiences, facilitating approach behaviors, facilitating avoidance behaviors, gaining insights into the self, and in preserving social harmony. Moreover, in study 2, individuals made self-serving ascriptions of regret, reporting greater regret experiences for themselves than for others. In short, people value their regrets substantially more than they do other negative emotions.

  14. Praise for regret: People value regret above other negative emotions

    PubMed Central

    Saffrey, Colleen; Summerville, Amy

    2008-01-01

    What do people think about the emotion of regret? Recent demonstrations of the psychological benefits of regret have been framed against an assumption that most people find regret to be aversive, both when experienced but also when recalled later. Two studies explored lay evaluations of regret experiences, revealing them to be largely favorable rather than unfavorable. Study 1 demonstrated that regret, but not other negative emotions, was dominated by positive more than negative evaluations. In both studies 1 and 2, although participants saw a great deal of benefit from their negative emotions, regret stood out as particularly beneficial. Indeed, in study 2, regret was seen to be the most beneficial of 12 negative emotions on all five functions of: making sense of past experiences, facilitating approach behaviors, facilitating avoidance behaviors, gaining insights into the self, and in preserving social harmony. Moreover, in study 2, individuals made self-serving ascriptions of regret, reporting greater regret experiences for themselves than for others. In short, people value their regrets substantially more than they do other negative emotions. PMID:18535665

  15. The primate amygdala represents the positive and negative value of visual stimuli during learning

    PubMed Central

    Paton, Joseph J.; Belova, Marina A.; Morrison, Sara E.; Salzman, C. Daniel

    2008-01-01

    Visual stimuli can acquire positive or negative value through their association with rewards and punishments, a process called reinforcement learning. Although we now know a great deal about how the brain analyses visual information, we know little about how visual representations become linked with values. To study this process, we turned to the amygdala, a brain structure implicated in reinforcement learning1–5. We recorded the activity of individual amygdala neurons in monkeys while abstract images acquired either positive or negative value through conditioning. After monkeys had learned the initial associations, we reversed image value assignments. We examined neural responses in relation to these reversals in order to estimate the relative contribution to neural activity of the sensory properties of images and their conditioned values. Here we show that changes in the values of images modulate neural activity, and that this modulation occurs rapidly enough to account for, and correlates with, monkeys’ learning. Furthermore, distinct populations of neurons encode the positive and negative values of visual stimuli. Behavioural and physiological responses to visual stimuli may therefore be based in part on the plastic representation of value provided by the amygdala. PMID:16482160

  16. The interplay of personality and negative comments about appearance in predicting body image.

    PubMed

    Kvalem, Ingela Lundin; von Soest, Tilmann; Roald, Helge E; Skolleborg, Knut Chr

    2006-09-01

    This study investigates how personality traits in combination with frequency of and emotional reaction to negative comments about appearance while growing up are related to appearance evaluation and orientation among adult women. Nine hundred and seven participants from a representative sample of Norwegian women aged 22-55, answered questions measuring body image, personality (Big Five), and history of experiencing negative comments about appearance. Results indicated that only emotional reaction to negative comments about appearance significantly predicted both appearance evaluation and orientation, while frequency of negative comments did not. Being extrovert predicted more positive appearance evaluation and being more appearance oriented than being introvert. Scoring high on neuroticism was related to negative appearance evaluation and high appearance orientation. The findings demonstrate the importance of differentiating between the frequency and the emotional impact of teasing as well as including personality traits when studying body image.

  17. [Diagnostic value of a predictive model for complete ruptures of the rotator cuff associated to subacromial impingement].

    PubMed

    Águila-Ledesma, I R; Córdova-Fonseca, J L; Medina-Pontaza, O; Núñez-Gómez, D A; Calvache-García, C; Pérez-Atanasio, J M; Torres-González, R

    2017-01-01

    Pathology related to the rotator cuff remains among the most prevalent musculoskeletal diseases. There is an increasing need for imaging studies (MRI, US, arthroscopy) to test the diagnostic performance of the medical history and physical examination. To prove the diagnostic value of a clinical-radiographic predictive model to find complete ruptures of the rotator cuff. Descriptive, observational, prospective, transversal and analytical study. Fifty-five patients with preoperative shoulder pain were evaluated with 13 predictive variables: age > 50 years, nocturnal pain, muscle weakness, clinical signs of Neer, Hawkins, Jobe, external rotation lag (ERLS), belly-press, bear hug, and lift-off, radiographic measurement of subacromial space, acromial index and critical shoulder angle. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were measured in each variable, comparing the results of each one against the postoperative findings. Of the 55 patients evaluated, 42 had a complete rupture of the rotator cuff in the postoperative period. The eight variables with a higher diagnostic value were selected and a ROC curve was performed, providing an area under the curve of 0.88. This predictive model uses eight variables (age > 50 years, nocturnal pain, muscle weakness, Jobe, Hawkins, ERLS, subacromial space ≤ 6 mm, and critical shoulder angle > 35°), which together add the predictive value of 0.88 (AUC) to diagnose complete ruptures of the supraspinatus tendon.

  18. Predictive diagnostic value of the tourniquet test for the diagnosis of dengue infection in adults

    PubMed Central

    Mayxay, Mayfong; Phetsouvanh, Rattanaphone; Moore, Catrin E; Chansamouth, Vilada; Vongsouvath, Manivanh; Sisouphone, Syho; Vongphachanh, Pankham; Thaojaikong, Thaksinaporn; Thongpaseuth, Soulignasack; Phongmany, Simmaly; Keolouangkhot, Valy; Strobel, Michel; Newton, Paul N

    2011-01-01

    Objective To examine the accuracy of the admission tourniquet test in the diagnosis of dengue infection among Lao adults. Methods Prospective assessment of the predictive diagnostic value of the tourniquet test for the diagnosis of dengue infection, as defined by IgM, IgG and NS1 ELISAs (Panbio Ltd, Australia), among Lao adult inpatients with clinically suspected dengue infection. Results Of 234 patients with clinically suspected dengue infection on admission, 73% were serologically confirmed to have dengue, while 64 patients with negative dengue serology were diagnosed as having scrub typhus (39%), murine typhus (11%), undetermined typhus (12%), Japanese encephalitis virus (5%), undetermined flavivirus (5%) and typhoid fever (3%); 25% had no identifiable aetiology. The tourniquet test was positive in 29.1% (95% CI = 23.2–34.9%) of all patients and in 34.1% (95% CI = 27.0–41.2%) of dengue-seropositive patients, in 32.7% (95% CI = 23.5–41.8) of those with dengue fever and in 36.4% (95% CI = 24.7–48.0) of those with dengue haemorrhagic fever. Interobserver agreement for the tourniquet test was 90.2% (95% CI = 86.4–94.0) (Kappa = 0.76). Using ELISAs as the diagnostic gold standard, the sensitivity of the tourniquet test was 33.5–34%; its specificity was 84–91%. The positive and negative predictive values were 85–90% and 32.5–34%, respectively. Conclusions The admission tourniquet test has low sensitivity and adds relatively little value to the diagnosis of dengue among Lao adult inpatients with suspected dengue. Although a positive tourniquet test suggests dengue and that treatment of alternative diagnoses may not be needed, a negative test result does not exclude dengue. PMID:20958892

  19. Predictive value of painful popping for a posterior root tear of the medial meniscus in middle-aged to older Asian patients.

    PubMed

    Bae, Ji-Hoon; Paik, Nak Hwan; Park, Gyu-Won; Yoon, Jung-Ro; Chae, Dong-Ju; Kwon, Jae Ho; Kim, Jong In; Nha, Kyung-Wook

    2013-03-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of a single event of painful popping in the presence of a posterior root tear of the medial meniscus in middle-aged to older Asian patients. We conducted a retrospective review of medical records of 936 patients who underwent arthroscopic surgeries for an isolated medial meniscus tear between January 2000 and December 2010. There were 332 men and 604 women with a mean age of 41 years (range, 25 to 66 years). The accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of a painful popping sensation for a posterior root tear of the medial meniscus were calculated. Arthroscopy confirmed the presence of posterior root tears of the medial menisci in 237 of 936 patients (25.3%). A single event of a painful popping sensation was present in 86 of these 936 patients (9.1%). Of these 86 patients with a painful popping sensation, 83 (96.5%) were categorized as having an isolated posterior root tear of the medial meniscus. The positive predictive value of a painful popping sensation in identifying a posterior root tear of the medial meniscus was 96.5%, the negative predictive value was 81.8%, the sensitivity was 35.0%, the specificity was 99.5%, and the diagnostic accuracy was 77.9%. A single event of painful popping can be a highly predictive clinical sign of a posterior root tear of the medial meniscus in the middle-aged to older Asian population. However, it has low sensitivity for the detection of a posterior root tear of the medial meniscus. Level IV, therapeutic case series. Copyright © 2013 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. THE PREDICTIVE VALUE OF SERUM URIC ACID FOR THE OCCURRENCE, SEVERITY AND OUTCOMES OF PRE-ECLAMPSIA AMONG PARTURIENTS AT NNEWI, NIGERIA.

    PubMed

    Osakwe, Chukwudi Richmond; Ikpeze, Okechukwu C; Ezebialu, Ifeanyi Uzoma; Osakwe, Joy Oluchi; Mbadugha, Norah Nwadiogo

    2015-01-01

    To determine the predictive value of serum uric acid for preeclampsia, its severity and pregnancy outcome. This is a cohort study that was performed on normal pregnant women attending antenatal clinic at Nnamdi Azikiwe University Teaching Hospital Nnewi Nigeria. Serum uric acid was determined in 200 women attending antenatal clinic between the gestational ages of 14 and 26 weeks. The women were followed up at 2 weekly intervals until 36 weeks and weekly thereafter until delivery. Women who developed pre-eclampsia or eclampsia were identified. Pregnancy outcomes were determined as well as fetal and placental weights. The data was analised with SPSS version 16.0. The chi square was used for test of significance. The positive and negative predictive values were determined. A total of 200 normal pregnant women were recruited for the study. Nine of them were lost to follow up. Subsequently, 10.5% of the women developed preeclampsia. The positive and negative predictive values of serum uric acid for preeclampsia were 78.9% and 97.1%, respectively. Serum uric acid was found to be a useful predictor of the occurrence of preeclampsia and its severity.

  1. Phase angle assessment by bioelectrical impedance analysis and its predictive value for malnutrition risk in hospitalized geriatric patients.

    PubMed

    Varan, Hacer Dogan; Bolayir, Basak; Kara, Ozgur; Arik, Gunes; Kizilarslanoglu, Muhammet Cemal; Kilic, Mustafa Kemal; Sumer, Fatih; Kuyumcu, Mehmet Emin; Yesil, Yusuf; Yavuz, Burcu Balam; Halil, Meltem; Cankurtaran, Mustafa

    2016-12-01

    Phase angle (PhA) value determined by bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) is an indicator of cell membrane damage and body cell mass. Recent studies have shown that low PhA value is associated with increased nutritional risk in various group of patients. However, there have been only a few studies performed globally assessing the relationship between nutritional risk and PhA in hospitalized geriatric patients. The aim of the study is to evaluate the predictive value of the PhA for malnutrition risk in hospitalized geriatric patients. One hundred and twenty-two hospitalized geriatric patients were included in this cross-sectional study. Comprehensive geriatric assessment tests and BIA measurements were performed within the first 48 h after admission. Nutritional risk state of the patients was determined with NRS-2002. Phase angle values of the patients with malnutrition risk were compared with the patients that did not have the same risk. The independent variables for predicting malnutrition risk were determined. SPSS version 15 was utilized for the statistical analyzes. The patients with malnutrition risk had significantly lower phase angle values than the patients without malnutrition risk (p = 0.003). ROC curve analysis suggested that the optimum PhA cut-off point for malnutrition risk was 4.7° with 79.6 % sensitivity, 64.6 % specificity, 73.9 % positive predictive value, and 73.9 % negative predictive value. BMI, prealbumin, PhA, and Mini Mental State Examination Test scores were the independent variables for predicting malnutrition risk. PhA can be a useful, independent indicator for predicting malnutrition risk in hospitalized geriatric patients.

  2. Value of supervised learning events in predicting doctors in difficulty.

    PubMed

    Patel, Mumtaz; Agius, Steven; Wilkinson, Jack; Patel, Leena; Baker, Paul

    2016-07-01

    In the UK, supervised learning events (SLE) replaced traditional workplace-based assessments for foundation-year trainees in 2012. A key element of SLEs was to incorporate trainee reflection and assessor feedback in order to drive learning and identify training issues early. Few studies, however, have investigated the value of SLEs in predicting doctors in difficulty. This study aimed to identify principles that would inform understanding about how and why SLEs work or not in identifying doctors in difficulty (DiD). A retrospective case-control study of North West Foundation School trainees' electronic portfolios was conducted. Cases comprised all known DiD. Controls were randomly selected from the same cohort. Free-text supervisor comments from each SLE were assessed for the four domains defined in the General Medical Council's Good Medical Practice Guidelines and each scored blindly for level of concern using a three-point ordinal scale. Cumulative scores for each SLE were then analysed quantitatively for their predictive value of actual DiD. A qualitative thematic analysis was also conducted. The prevalence of DiD in this sample was 6.5%. Receiver operator characteristic curve analysis showed that Team Assessment of Behaviour (TAB) was the only SLE strongly predictive of actual DiD status. The Educational Supervisor Report (ESR) was also strongly predictive of DiD status. Fisher's test showed significant associations of TAB and ESR for both predicted and actual DiD status and also the health and performance subtypes. None of the other SLEs showed significant associations. Qualitative data analysis revealed inadequate completion and lack of constructive, particularly negative, feedback. This indicated that SLEs were not used to their full potential. TAB and the ESR are strongly predictive of DiD. However, SLEs are not being used to their full potential, and the quality of completion of reports on SLEs and feedback needs to be improved in order to better identify

  3. Negative Emotions Predict Elevated Interleukin-6 in the United States but not in Japan

    PubMed Central

    Miyamoto, Yuri; Boylan, Jennifer Morozink; Coe, Christopher L.; Curhan, Katherine B.; Levine, Cynthia S.; Markus, Hazel Rose; Park, Jiyoung; Kitayama, Shinobu; Kawakami, Norito; Karasawa, Mayumi; Love, Gayle D.; Ryff, Carol D.

    2013-01-01

    Previous studies conducted in Western cultures have shown that negative emotions predict higher levels of pro-inflammatory biomarkers, specifically interleukin-6 (IL-6). This link between negative emotions and IL-6 may be specific to Western cultures where negative emotions are perceived to be problematic and thus may not extend to Eastern cultures where negative emotions are seen as acceptable and normal. Using samples of 1044 American and 382 Japanese middle-aged and older adults, we investigated whether the relationship between negative emotions and IL-6 varies by cultural context. Negative emotions predicted higher IL-6 among American adults, whereas no association was evident among Japanese adults. Furthermore, the interaction between culture and negative emotions remained even after controlling for demographic variables, psychological factors (positive emotions, neuroticism, extraversion), health behaviors (smoking status, alcohol consumption), and health status (chronic conditions, BMI). These findings highlight the role of cultural context in shaping how negative emotions affect inflammatory physiology and underscore the importance of cultural ideas and practices relevant to negative emotions for understanding of the interplay between psychology, physiology, and health. PMID:23911591

  4. Motivated prediction of future feelings: effects of negative mood and mood orientation on affective forecasts.

    PubMed

    Buehler, Roger; McFarland, Cathy; Spyropoulos, Vassili; Lam, Kent C H

    2007-09-01

    This article examines the role of motivational factors in affective forecasting. The primary hypothesis was that people predict positive emotional reactions to future events when they are motivated to enhance their current feelings. Three experiments manipulated participants' moods (negative vs. neutral) and orientation toward their moods (reflective vs. ruminative) and then assessed the positivity of their affective predictions for future events. As hypothesized, when participants adopted a reflective orientation, and thus should have been motivated to engage in mood-regulation processes, they predicted more positive feelings in the negative than in the neutral mood condition. This pattern of mood-incongruent affective prediction was not exhibited when participants adopted a ruminative orientation. Additionally, within the negative mood condition, generating affective forecasts had a more positive emotional impact on reflectors than on ruminators. The findings suggest that affective predictions are sometimes driven by mood-regulatory motives.

  5. Predictive value of flat-panel CT for haemorrhagic transformations in patients with acute stroke treated with thrombectomy.

    PubMed

    Rouchaud, Aymeric; Pistocchi, Silvia; Blanc, Raphaël; Engrand, Nicolas; Bartolini, Bruno; Piotin, Michel

    2014-03-01

    Haemorrhagic transformations are pejorative for patients with acute ischaemic stroke (AIS). We estimated flat-panel CT performances to detect brain parenchymal hyperdense lesions immediately after mechanical thrombectomy directly on the angiography table in patients with AIS, and its ability to predict haemorrhagic transformation. We also evaluated an easy-reading protocol for post-procedure flat-panel CT evaluation by clinicians to enable them to determine the potential risk of haemorrhage. Two neuroradiologists retrospectively reviewed post-procedural flat-panel CT and 24 h follow-up imaging. We evaluated hyperdense lesions on flat-panel CT to predict the occurrence of haemorrhagic transformation within 24 h detected with conventional imaging. Of 63 patients, 60.3% presented post-procedural parenchymal hyperdensity and 54.0% had haemorrhagic transformation. Significantly more patients with hyperdense lesions on post-thrombectomy flat-panel CT presented haemorrhagic transformation (84.2% vs 8.0%; p<0.0001). No significant haemorrhagic transformations were detected for patients without parenchymal hyperdensity. Sensitivity and specificity of hyperdense lesions on flat-panel CT for the prediction of haemorrhagic transformation were 94.1% (80.3-99.3%) and 79.3% (60.3-92.0%), respectively. The positive and negative predictive values for the occurrence of haemorrhage were 84.2% (68.8-94.0%) and 92.0% (74.0-99.0%), respectively. For significant parenchymal haemorrhage type 2, sensitivity and negative predictive values were 100%. We observed good homogeneity between the different readers. Hyperdensity on post-procedural flat-panel CT was associated with a tendency for higher risk of death and lower risk of good clinical outcome. Flat-panel CT appears to be a good tool to detect brain parenchymal hyperdensities after mechanical thrombectomy in patients with AIS and to predict haemorrhagic transformation.

  6. Negative emotions predict elevated interleukin-6 in the United States but not in Japan.

    PubMed

    Miyamoto, Yuri; Boylan, Jennifer Morozink; Coe, Christopher L; Curhan, Katherine B; Levine, Cynthia S; Markus, Hazel Rose; Park, Jiyoung; Kitayama, Shinobu; Kawakami, Norito; Karasawa, Mayumi; Love, Gayle D; Ryff, Carol D

    2013-11-01

    Previous studies conducted in Western cultures have shown that negative emotions predict higher levels of pro-inflammatory biomarkers, specifically interleukin-6 (IL-6). This link between negative emotions and IL-6 may be specific to Western cultures where negative emotions are perceived to be problematic and thus may not extend to Eastern cultures where negative emotions are seen as acceptable and normal. Using samples of 1044 American and 382 Japanese middle-aged and older adults, we investigated whether the relationship between negative emotions and IL-6 varies by cultural context. Negative emotions predicted higher IL-6 among American adults, whereas no association was evident among Japanese adults. Furthermore, the interaction between culture and negative emotions remained even after controlling for demographic variables, psychological factors (positive emotions, neuroticism, extraversion), health behaviors (smoking status, alcohol consumption), and health status (chronic conditions, BMI). These findings highlight the role of cultural context in shaping how negative emotions affect inflammatory physiology and underscore the importance of cultural ideas and practices relevant to negative emotions for understanding of the interplay between psychology, physiology, and health. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Error-related negativities elicited by monetary loss and cues that predict loss.

    PubMed

    Dunning, Jonathan P; Hajcak, Greg

    2007-11-19

    Event-related potential studies have reported error-related negativity following both error commission and feedback indicating errors or monetary loss. The present study examined whether error-related negativities could be elicited by a predictive cue presented prior to both the decision and subsequent feedback in a gambling task. Participants were presented with a cue that indicated the probability of reward on the upcoming trial (0, 50, and 100%). Results showed a negative deflection in the event-related potential in response to loss cues compared with win cues; this waveform shared a similar latency and morphology with the traditional feedback error-related negativity.

  8. The role of negative affectivity and negative reactivity to emotions in predicting outcomes in the unified protocol for the transdiagnostic treatment of emotional disorders.

    PubMed

    Sauer-Zavala, Shannon; Boswell, James F; Gallagher, Matthew W; Bentley, Kate H; Ametaj, Amantia; Barlow, David H

    2012-09-01

    The present study aimed to understand the contributions of both the trait tendency to experience negative emotions and how one relates to such experience in predicting symptom change during participation in the Unified Protocol (UP), a transdiagnostic treatment for emotional disorders. Data were derived from a randomized controlled trial comparing the UP to a waitlist control/delayed-treatment condition. First, effect sizes of pre- to post-treatment change for frequency of negative emotions and several variables measuring reactivity to emotional experience (emotional awareness and acceptance, fear of emotions, and anxiety sensitivity) were examined. Second, the relative contributions of change in negative emotions and emotional reactivity in predicting symptom (clinician-rated anxiety, depression, and severity of principal diagnosis) reductions were investigated. Results suggested that decreases in the frequency of negative emotions and reactivity to emotions following participation in the UP were both large in magnitude. Further, two emotional reactivity variables (fear of emotions and anxiety sensitivity) remained significantly related to symptom outcomes when controlling for negative emotions, and accounted for significant incremental variance in their prediction. These findings lend support to the notion that psychological health depends less on the frequency of negative emotions and more on how one relates to these emotions when they occur. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Pretest variables that improve the predictive value of exercise testing in women.

    PubMed

    Lamont, L S; Bobb, J; Blissmer, B; Desai, V

    2015-12-01

    Graded exercise testing (GXT) is used in coronary artery disease (CAD) prevention and rehabilitation programs. In women, this test has a decreased accuracy and predictive value but there are few studies that examine the predictors of a verified positive test. The aim of this study was to determine those pretest variables that might enhance the predictive value of the GXT in women clients. Medical records of 1761 patients referred for GXT's over a 5 yr period of time were screened. Demographic, medical, and exercise test variables were analyzed. The GXT's of 403 women were available for inclusion and they were stratified into 3 groups: positive responders that were subsequently shown to have CAD (N.=28 verified positive [VP]), positive responders that were not shown to have CAD (N.=84 non-verified positive [NVP]) and negative GXT responders (N.=291). Both univariate and a multivariate step-wise regression statistics were performed on this data. Pretest variables that differentiated between VP and NVP groups are: (an older age=65.8 vs. 60.2 yrs. P<0.05; a greater BMI=30.8 vs. 28.8 kg/m2; diabetes status or an elevated fasting glucose =107.4 vs. 95.2 mg/dL P<0.05; and the use of some cardiovascular medications. Our subsequent linear regression analysis emphasized that HDL cholesterol and beta blocker usage were the most predictive of a positive exercise test in this cohort. The American Heart Association recommends GXT's in women with an intermediate pretest probability of CAD. But there are only two clinical variables available prior to testing to make this probability decision: age and quality of chest pain. This study outlined that other pre-exercise test variables such as: BMI, blood chemistry (glucose and lipoprotein levels) and the use of cardiovascular medications are useful in clinical decision making. These pre-exercise test variables improved the predictive value of the GXT's in our sample.

  10. Predictive value of stroke discharge diagnoses in the Danish National Patient Register.

    PubMed

    Lühdorf, Pernille; Overvad, Kim; Schmidt, Erik B; Johnsen, Søren P; Bach, Flemming W

    2017-08-01

    To determine the positive predictive values for stroke discharge diagnoses, including subarachnoidal haemorrhage, intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral infarction in the Danish National Patient Register. Participants in the Danish cohort study Diet, Cancer and Health with a stroke discharge diagnosis in the National Patient Register between 1993 and 2009 were identified and their medical records were retrieved for validation of the diagnoses. A total of 3326 records of possible cases of stroke were reviewed. The overall positive predictive value for stroke was 69.3% (95% confidence interval (CI) 67.8-70.9%). The predictive values differed according to hospital characteristics, with the highest predictive value of 87.8% (95% CI 85.5-90.1%) found in departments of neurology and the lowest predictive value of 43.0% (95% CI 37.6-48.5%) found in outpatient clinics. The overall stroke diagnosis in the Danish National Patient Register had a limited predictive value. We therefore recommend the critical use of non-validated register data for research on stroke. The possibility of optimising the predictive values based on more advanced algorithms should be considered.

  11. Solution Path for Pin-SVM Classifiers With Positive and Negative $\\tau $ Values.

    PubMed

    Huang, Xiaolin; Shi, Lei; Suykens, Johan A K

    2017-07-01

    Applying the pinball loss in a support vector machine (SVM) classifier results in pin-SVM. The pinball loss is characterized by a parameter τ . Its value is related to the quantile level and different τ values are suitable for different problems. In this paper, we establish an algorithm to find the entire solution path for pin-SVM with different τ values. This algorithm is based on the fact that the optimal solution to pin-SVM is continuous and piecewise linear with respect to τ . We also show that the nonnegativity constraint on τ is not necessary, i.e., τ can be extended to negative values. First, in some applications, a negative τ leads to better accuracy. Second, τ = -1 corresponds to a simple solution that links SVM and the classical kernel rule. The solution for τ = -1 can be obtained directly and then be used as a starting point of the solution path. The proposed method efficiently traverses τ values through the solution path, and then achieves good performance by a suitable τ . In particular, τ = 0 corresponds to C-SVM, meaning that the traversal algorithm can output a result at least as good as C-SVM with respect to validation error.

  12. Acculturation Predicts Negative Affect and Shortened Telomere Length.

    PubMed

    Ruiz, R Jeanne; Trzeciakowski, Jerome; Moore, Tiffany; Ayers, Kimberly S; Pickler, Rita H

    2016-10-12

    Chronic stress may accelerate cellular aging. Telomeres, protective "caps" at the end of chromosomes, modulate cellular aging and may be good biomarkers for the effects of chronic stress, including that associated with acculturation. The purpose of this analysis was to examine telomere length (TL) in acculturating Hispanic Mexican American women and to determine the associations among TL, acculturation, and psychological factors. As part of a larger cross-sectional study of 516 pregnant Hispanic Mexican American women, we analyzed DNA in blood samples (N = 56) collected at 22-24 weeks gestation for TL as an exploratory measure using monochrome multiplex quantitative telomere polymerase chain reaction (PCR). We measured acculturation with the Acculturation Rating Scale for Mexican Americans, depression with the Beck Depression Inventory, discrimination with the Experiences of Discrimination Scale, and stress with the Perceived Stress Scale. TL was negatively moderately correlated with two variables of acculturation: Anglo orientation and greater acculturation-level scores. We combined these scores for a latent variable, acculturation, and we combined depression, stress, and discrimination scores in another latent variable, "negative affectivity." Acculturation and negative affectivity were bidirectionally correlated. Acculturation significantly negatively predicted TL. Using structural equation modeling, we found the model had an excellent fit with the root mean square error of approximation estimate = .0001, comparative fit index = 1.0, Tucker-Lewis index = 1.0, and standardized root mean square residual = .05. The negative effects of acculturation on the health of Hispanic women have been previously demonstrated. Findings from this analysis suggest a link between acculturation and TL, which may indicate accelerated cellular aging associated with overall poor health outcomes. © The Author(s) 2016.

  13. In monkeys making value-based decisions, amygdala neurons are sensitive to cue value as distinct from cue salience.

    PubMed

    Leathers, Marvin L; Olson, Carl R

    2017-04-01

    Neurons in the lateral intraparietal (LIP) area of macaque monkey parietal cortex respond to cues predicting rewards and penalties of variable size in a manner that depends on the motivational salience of the predicted outcome (strong for both large reward and large penalty) rather than on its value (positive for large reward and negative for large penalty). This finding suggests that LIP mediates the capture of attention by salient events and does not encode value in the service of value-based decision making. It leaves open the question whether neurons elsewhere in the brain encode value in the identical task. To resolve this issue, we recorded neuronal activity in the amygdala in the context of the task employed in the LIP study. We found that responses to reward-predicting cues were similar between areas, with the majority of reward-sensitive neurons responding more strongly to cues that predicted large reward than to those that predicted small reward. Responses to penalty-predicting cues were, however, markedly different. In the amygdala, unlike LIP, few neurons were sensitive to penalty size, few penalty-sensitive neurons favored large over small penalty, and the dependence of firing rate on penalty size was negatively correlated with its dependence on reward size. These results indicate that amygdala neurons encoded cue value under circumstances in which LIP neurons exhibited sensitivity to motivational salience. However, the representation of negative value, as reflected in sensitivity to penalty size, was weaker than the representation of positive value, as reflected in sensitivity to reward size. NEW & NOTEWORTHY This is the first study to characterize amygdala neuronal responses to cues predicting rewards and penalties of variable size in monkeys making value-based choices. Manipulating reward and penalty size allowed distinguishing activity dependent on motivational salience from activity dependent on value. This approach revealed in a previous study

  14. Sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of pediatric metabolic syndrome components in relation to adult metabolic syndrome: the Princeton LRC follow-up study.

    PubMed

    Huang, Terry T-K; Nansel, Tonja R; Belsheim, Allen R; Morrison, John A

    2008-02-01

    To estimate the sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of pediatric metabolic syndrome (MetS) components (obesity, fasting glucose, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein, and blood pressure) at various cutoff points in relation to adult MetS. Data from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Lipid Research Clinics Princeton Prevalence Study (1973-1976) and the Princeton Follow-up Study (2000-2004) were used to calculate sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values for each component at a given cutoff point and for aggregates of components. Individual pediatric components alone showed low to moderate sensitivity, high specificity, and moderate predictive values in relation to adult MetS. When all 5 pediatric MetS components were considered, the presence of at least 1 abnormality had higher sensitivity for adult MetS than individual components alone. When multiple abnormalities were mandatory for MetS, positive predictive value was high and sensitivity was low. Childhood body mass alone showed neither high sensitivity nor high positive predictive value for adult MetS. Considering multiple metabolic variables in childhood can improve the predictive usefulness for adult MetS, compared with each component or body mass alone. MetS variables may be useful for identifying some children who are at risk for prevention interventions.

  15. Sensitivity, Specificity, and Predictive Values of Pediatric Metabolic Syndrome Components in Relation to Adult Metabolic Syndrome: The Princeton LRC Follow-up Study

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Terry T-K; Nansel, Tonja R.; Belsheim, Allen R.; Morrison, John A.

    2008-01-01

    Objective To estimate the sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of pediatric metabolic syndrome (MetS) components (obesity, fasting glucose, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein, and blood pressure) at various cutoffs in relation to adult MetS. Study design Data from the NHLBI Lipid Research Clinics (LRC) Princeton Prevalence Study (1973–76) and the Princeton Follow-up Study (PFS, 2000-4) were used to calculate sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values for each component at a given cutoff, as well as for aggregates of components. Results Individual pediatric components alone showed low to moderate sensitivity, high specificity, and moderate predictive values in relation to adult MetS. When all five pediatric MetS components were considered, the presence of at least one abnormality had higher sensitivity for adult MetS than individual components alone. When multiple abnormalities were mandatory for MetS, positive predictive value was high and sensitivity was low. Childhood body mass alone showed neither high sensitivity nor high positive predictive value for adult MetS. Conclusions Considering multiple metabolic variables in childhood can improve the predictive utility for adult MetS, compared to each component or body mass alone. MetS variables may be useful for identifying some at risk children for prevention interventions. PMID:18206687

  16. The Functional Movement Screen and Injury Risk: Association and Predictive Value in Active Men.

    PubMed

    Bushman, Timothy T; Grier, Tyson L; Canham-Chervak, Michelle; Anderson, Morgan K; North, William J; Jones, Bruce H

    2016-02-01

    The Functional Movement Screen (FMS) is a series of 7 tests used to assess the injury risk in active populations. To determine the association of the FMS with the injury risk, assess predictive values, and identify optimal cut points using 3 injury types. Cohort study; Level of evidence, 2. Physically active male soldiers aged 18 to 57 years (N = 2476) completed the FMS. Demographic and fitness data were collected by survey. Medical record data for overuse injuries, traumatic injuries, and any injury 6 months after the FMS assessment were obtained. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were calculated along with the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) to determine the area under the curve (AUC) and identify optimal cut points for the risk assessment. Risks, risk ratios (RRs), odds ratios (ORs), and 95% CIs were calculated to assess injury risks. Soldiers who scored ≤14 were at a greater risk for injuries compared with those who scored >14 using the composite score for overuse injuries (RR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.63-2.09), traumatic injuries (RR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.03-1.54), and any injury (RR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.45-1.77). When controlling for other known injury risk factors, multivariate logistic regression analysis identified poor FMS performance (OR [score ≤14/19-21], 2.00; 95% CI, 1.42-2.81) as an independent risk factor for injuries. A cut point of ≤14 registered low measures of predictive value for all 3 injury types (sensitivity, 28%-37%; PPV, 19%-52%; AUC, 54%-61%). Shifting the injury risk cut point of ≤14 to the optimal cut points indicated by the ROC did not appreciably improve sensitivity or the PPV. Although poor FMS performance was associated with a higher risk of injuries, it displayed low sensitivity, PPV, and AUC. On the basis of these findings, the use of the FMS to screen for the injury risk is not recommended in this population because of the low predictive value and misclassification of the

  17. Predictive Model of Linear Antimicrobial Peptides Active against Gram-Negative Bacteria.

    PubMed

    Vishnepolsky, Boris; Gabrielian, Andrei; Rosenthal, Alex; Hurt, Darrell E; Tartakovsky, Michael; Managadze, Grigol; Grigolava, Maya; Makhatadze, George I; Pirtskhalava, Malak

    2018-05-29

    Antimicrobial peptides (AMPs) have been identified as a potential new class of anti-infectives for drug development. There are a lot of computational methods that try to predict AMPs. Most of them can only predict if a peptide will show any antimicrobial potency, but to the best of our knowledge, there are no tools which can predict antimicrobial potency against particular strains. Here we present a predictive model of linear AMPs being active against particular Gram-negative strains relying on a semi-supervised machine-learning approach with a density-based clustering algorithm. The algorithm can well distinguish peptides active against particular strains from others which may also be active but not against the considered strain. The available AMP prediction tools cannot carry out this task. The prediction tool based on the algorithm suggested herein is available on https://dbaasp.org.

  18. Predictive value of autoantibody testing for validating self-reported diagnoses of rheumatoid arthritis in the Women's Health Initiative.

    PubMed

    Walitt, Brian; Mackey, Rachel; Kuller, Lewis; Deane, Kevin D; Robinson, William; Holers, V Michael; Chang, Yue-Fang; Moreland, Larry

    2013-05-01

    Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) research using large databases is limited by insufficient case validity. Of 161,808 postmenopausal women in the Women's Health Initiative, 15,691 (10.2%) reported having RA, far higher than the expected 1% population prevalence. Since chart review for confirmation of an RA diagnosis is impractical in large cohort studies, the current study (2009-2011) tested the ability of baseline serum measurements of rheumatoid factor and anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide antibodies, second-generation assay (anti-CCP2), to identify physician-validated RA among the chart-review study participants with self-reported RA (n = 286). Anti-CCP2 positivity had the highest positive predictive value (PPV) (80.0%), and rheumatoid factor positivity the lowest (44.6%). Together, use of disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs and anti-CCP2 positivity increased PPV to 100% but excluded all seronegative cases (approximately 15% of all RA cases). Case definitions inclusive of seronegative cases had PPVs between 59.6% and 63.6%. False-negative results were minimized in these test definitions, as evidenced by negative predictive values of approximately 90%. Serological measurements, particularly measurement of anti-CCP2, improved the test characteristics of RA case definitions in the Women's Health Initiative.

  19. Phospho-T356RB1 predicts survival in HPV-negative squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck

    PubMed Central

    Handorf, Elizabeth; Nikonova, Anna; Dubyk, Cara; Peri, Suraj; Lango, Miriam; Ridge, John A.; Serebriiskii, Ilya G.; Burtness, Barbara; Golemis, Erica A.; Mehra, Ranee

    2015-01-01

    Locally advanced squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (SCCHN) that is not associated with human papillomavirus (HPV) has a poor prognosis in contrast to HPV-positive disease. To better understand the importance of RB1 activity in HPV-negative SCCHN, we investigated the prognostic value of inhibitory CDK4/6 phosphorylation of RB1 on threonine 356 (T356) in archival HPV-negative tumor specimens from patients who underwent surgical resection and adjuvant radiation. We benchmarked pT356RB1 to total RB1, Ki67, pT202/Y204ERK1/2, and TP53, as quantified by automatic quantitative analysis (AQUA), and correlated protein expression with tumor stage and grade. High expression of pT356RB1 but not total RB1 predicted reduced overall survival (OS; P = 0.0295), indicating the potential relevance of post-translational phosphorylation. Paired analysis of The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) data for regulators of this RB1 phosphorylation identified loss or truncating mutation of negative regulator CDKN2A (p16) and elevated expression of the CDK4/6 activator CCND1 (cyclin D) as also predicting poor survival. Given that CDK4/6 inhibitors have been most effective in the context of functional RB1 and low expression or deletion of p16 in other tumor types, these data suggest such agents may merit evaluation in HPV-negative SCCHN, specifically in cases associated with high pT356RB1. PMID:26265441

  20. Predictive value of general movements' quality in low-risk infants for minor neurological dysfunction and behavioural problems at preschool age.

    PubMed

    Bennema, Anne N; Schendelaar, Pamela; Seggers, Jorien; Haadsma, Maaike L; Heineman, Maas Jan; Hadders-Algra, Mijna

    2016-03-01

    General movement (GM) assessment is a well-established tool to predict cerebral palsy in high-risk infants. Little is known on the predictive value of GM assessment in low-risk populations. To assess the predictive value of GM quality in early infancy for the development of the clinically relevant form of minor neurological dysfunction (complex MND) and behavioral problems at preschool age. Prospective cohort study. A total of 216 members of the prospective Groningen Assisted Reproductive Techniques (ART) cohort study were included in this study. ART did not affect neurodevelopmental outcome of these relatively low-risk infants born to subfertile parents. GM quality was determined at 2 weeks and 3 months. At 18 months and 4 years, the Hempel neurological examination was used to assess MND. At 4 years, parents completed the Child Behavior Checklist; this resulted in the total problem score (TPS), internalizing problem score (IPS), and externalizing problem score (EPS). Predictive values of definitely (DA) and mildly (MA) abnormal GMs were calculated. DA GMs at 2 weeks were associated with complex MND at 18 months and atypical TPS and IPS at 4 years (all p<0.05). Sensitivity and positive predictive value of DA GMs at 2 weeks were rather low (13%-60%); specificity and negative predictive value were excellent (92%-99%). DA GMs at 3 months occurred too infrequently to calculate prediction. MA GMs were not associated with outcome. GM quality as a single predictor for complex MND and behavioral problems at preschool age has limited clinical value in children at low risk for developmental disorders. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. The Nature and Predictive Value of Mothers’ Beliefs Regarding Infants’ and Toddlers’ TV/Video Viewing: Applying the Integrative Model of Behavioral Prediction

    PubMed Central

    Vaala, Sarah E.

    2014-01-01

    Viewing television and video programming has become a normative behavior among US infants and toddlers. Little is understood about parents’ decision-making about the extent of their young children’s viewing, though numerous organizations are interested in reducing time spent viewing among infants and toddlers. Prior research has examined parents’ belief in the educational value of TV/videos for young children and the predictive value of this belief for understanding infant/toddler viewing rates, though other possible salient beliefs remain largely unexplored. This study employs the integrative model of behavioral prediction (Fishbein & Ajzen, 2010) to examine 30 maternal beliefs about infants’ and toddlers’ TV/video viewing which were elicited from a prior sample of mothers. Results indicate that mothers tend to hold more positive than negative beliefs about the outcomes associated with young children’s TV/video viewing, and that the nature of the aggregate set of beliefs is predictive of their general attitudes and intentions to allow their children to view, as well as children’s estimated viewing rates. Analyses also uncover multiple dimensions within the full set of beliefs, which explain more variance in mothers’ attitudes and intentions and children’s viewing than the uni-dimensional index. The theoretical and practical implications of the findings are discussed. PMID:25431537

  2. Predictive value of sperm morphology and progressively motile sperm count for pregnancy outcomes in intrauterine insemination.

    PubMed

    Lemmens, Louise; Kos, Snjezana; Beijer, Cornelis; Brinkman, Jacoline W; van der Horst, Frans A L; van den Hoven, Leonie; Kieslinger, Dorit C; van Trooyen-van Vrouwerff, Netty J; Wolthuis, Albert; Hendriks, Jan C M; Wetzels, Alex M M

    2016-06-01

    To investigate the value of sperm parameters to predict an ongoing pregnancy outcome in couples treated with intrauterine insemination (IUI), during a methodologically stable period of time. Retrospective, observational study with logistic regression analyses. University hospital. A total of 1,166 couples visiting the fertility laboratory for their first IUI episode, including 4,251 IUI cycles. None. Sperm morphology, total progressively motile sperm count (TPMSC), and number of inseminated progressively motile spermatozoa (NIPMS); odds ratios (ORs) of the sperm parameters after the first IUI cycle and the first finished IUI episode; discriminatory accuracy of the multivariable model. None of the sperm parameters was of predictive value for pregnancy after the first IUI cycle. In the first finished IUI episode, a positive relationship was found for ≤4% of morphologically normal spermatozoa (OR 1.39) and a moderate NIPMS (5-10 million; OR 1.73). Low NIPMS showed a negative relation (≤1 million; OR 0.42). The TPMSC had no predictive value. The multivariable model (i.e., sperm morphology, NIPMS, female age, male age, and the number of cycles in the episode) had a moderate discriminatory accuracy (area under the curve 0.73). Intrauterine insemination is especially relevant for couples with moderate male factor infertility (sperm morphology ≤4%, NIPMS 5-10 million). In the multivariable model, however, the predictive power of these sperm parameters is rather low. Copyright © 2016 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Using the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) to Define Different Domains of Negative Symptoms: Prediction of Everyday Functioning by Impairments in Emotional Expression and Emotional Experience.

    PubMed

    Harvey, Philip D; Khan, Anzalee; Keefe, Richard S E

    2017-12-01

    Background: Reduced emotional experience and expression are two domains of negative symptoms. The authors assessed these two domains of negative symptoms using previously developed Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) factors. Using an existing dataset, the authors predicted three different elements of everyday functioning (social, vocational, and everyday activities) with these two factors, as well as with performance on measures of functional capacity. Methods: A large (n=630) sample of people with schizophrenia was used as the data source of this study. Using regression analyses, the authors predicted the three different aspects of everyday functioning, first with just the two Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale factors and then with a global negative symptom factor. Finally, we added neurocognitive performance and functional capacity as predictors. Results: The Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale reduced emotional experience factor accounted for 21 percent of the variance in everyday social functioning, while reduced emotional expression accounted for no variance. The total Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale negative symptom factor accounted for less variance (19%) than the reduced experience factor alone. The Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale expression factor accounted for, at most, one percent of the variance in any of the functional outcomes, with or without the addition of other predictors. Implications: Reduced emotional experience measured with the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale, often referred to as "avolition and anhedonia," specifically predicted impairments in social outcomes. Further, reduced experience predicted social impairments better than emotional expression or the total Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale negative symptom factor. In this cross-sectional study, reduced emotional experience was specifically related with social outcomes, accounting for essentially no variance in work or everyday activities, and being the

  4. Negative (but not Positive) Parenting Interacts with Infant Negative Affect to Predict Infant Approach: Evidence of Diathesis-Stress.

    PubMed

    Holzman, Jacob B; Burt, Nicole M; Edwards, Erin S; Rosinski, Leanna D; Bridgett, David J

    2018-01-01

    Temperament by parenting interactions may reflect that individuals with greater risk are more likely to experience negative outcomes in adverse contexts (diathesis-stress) or that these individuals are more susceptible to contextual influences in a 'for better or for worse' pattern (differential susceptibility). Although such interactions have been identified for a variety of child outcomes, prior research has not examined approach characteristics - excitement and approach toward pleasurable activities - in the first year of life. Therefore, the current study investigated whether 6-month maternal reported infant negative affect - a phenotypic marker of risk/susceptibility - interacted with 8-month observed parenting behaviors (positive parenting, negative parenting) to predict 12-month infant behavioral approach. Based a sample of mothers and their infants ( N =150), results indicated that negative parenting was inversely associated with subsequent approach for infants with high, but not low, levels of early negative affect. Similar results did not occur regarding positive parenting. These findings better fit a diathesis-stress model rather than a differential susceptibility model. Implications and limitations of these findings are discussed.

  5. [Predictive value of Ages & Stages Questionnaires for cognitive performance at early years of schooling].

    PubMed

    Schonhaut B, Luisa; Pérez R, Marcela; Castilla F, Ana María; Castro M, Sonia; Salinas A, Patricia; Armijo R, Iván

    2017-02-01

    The Ages and Stages questionnaires (ASQ) has been recently validated in our country for developmental screening. The objective of this study is evaluate the validity of ASQ to predict low cognitive performance in the early years of schooling. Diagnostic test studies conducted on a sample of children of medium-high socioeconomic level were evaluated using ASQ at least once at 8, 18 and/or 30 months old, and later, between 6 and 9 years old, reevaluated using the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-third edition (WISC-III). Each ASQ evaluation was recorded independently. WISC-III was standardized, considering underperformance when the total score were under -1 standard deviation. 123 children, corresponding to 174 ASQ assessments (42 of them were 8 months old, 55 were 18 months and 77 were 30 months of age) were included. An area under the ROC curve of 80.7% was obtained, showing higher values at 8 months (98.0%) compared to 18 and 30 months old (78.1 and 79.3%, respectively). Considering different ASQ scoring criteria, a low sensitivity (27.8 to 50.0%), but a high specificity (78.8 to 96.2%) were obtained; the positive predictive value ranged between 21 and 46%, while the negative value was 92.0-93.2%. Conclusion ASQ has low sensitivity but excellent specificity to predict a low cognitive performance during the first years of schooling, being a good alternative to monitor psychomotor development in children who attend the private sector healthcare in our country.

  6. Dopamine prediction error responses integrate subjective value from different reward dimensions

    PubMed Central

    Lak, Armin; Stauffer, William R.; Schultz, Wolfram

    2014-01-01

    Prediction error signals enable us to learn through experience. These experiences include economic choices between different rewards that vary along multiple dimensions. Therefore, an ideal way to reinforce economic choice is to encode a prediction error that reflects the subjective value integrated across these reward dimensions. Previous studies demonstrated that dopamine prediction error responses reflect the value of singular reward attributes that include magnitude, probability, and delay. Obviously, preferences between rewards that vary along one dimension are completely determined by the manipulated variable. However, it is unknown whether dopamine prediction error responses reflect the subjective value integrated from different reward dimensions. Here, we measured the preferences between rewards that varied along multiple dimensions, and as such could not be ranked according to objective metrics. Monkeys chose between rewards that differed in amount, risk, and type. Because their choices were complete and transitive, the monkeys chose “as if” they integrated different rewards and attributes into a common scale of value. The prediction error responses of single dopamine neurons reflected the integrated subjective value inferred from the choices, rather than the singular reward attributes. Specifically, amount, risk, and reward type modulated dopamine responses exactly to the extent that they influenced economic choices, even when rewards were vastly different, such as liquid and food. This prediction error response could provide a direct updating signal for economic values. PMID:24453218

  7. Values and uncertainties in climate prediction, revisited.

    PubMed

    Parker, Wendy

    2014-06-01

    Philosophers continue to debate both the actual and the ideal roles of values in science. Recently, Eric Winsberg has offered a novel, model-based challenge to those who argue that the internal workings of science can and should be kept free from the influence of social values. He contends that model-based assignments of probability to hypotheses about future climate change are unavoidably influenced by social values. I raise two objections to Winsberg's argument, neither of which can wholly undermine its conclusion but each of which suggests that his argument exaggerates the influence of social values on estimates of uncertainty in climate prediction. I then show how a more traditional challenge to the value-free ideal seems tailor-made for the climate context.

  8. Predictive Value of Glasgow Coma Score and Full Outline of Unresponsiveness Score on the Outcome of Multiple Trauma Patients.

    PubMed

    Baratloo, Alireza; Shokravi, Masumeh; Safari, Saeed; Aziz, Awat Kamal

    2016-03-01

    The Full Outline of Unresponsiveness (FOUR) score was developed to compensate for the limitations of Glasgow coma score (GCS) in recent years. This study aimed to assess the predictive value of GCS and FOUR score on the outcome of multiple trauma patients admitted to the emergency department. The present prospective cross-sectional study was conducted on multiple trauma patients admitted to the emergency department. GCS and FOUR scores were evaluated at the time of admission and at the sixth and twelfth hours after admission. Then the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, sensitivity, specificity, as well as positive and negative predictive value of GCS and FOUR score were evaluated to predict patients' outcome. Patients' outcome was divided into discharge with and without a medical injury (motor deficit, coma or death). Finally, 89 patients were studied. Sensitivity and specificity of GCS in predicting adverse outcome (motor deficit, coma or death) were 84.2% and 88.6% at the time of admission, 89.5% and 95.4% at the sixth hour and 89.5% and 91.5% at the twelfth hour, respectively. These values for the FOUR score were 86.9% and 88.4% at the time of admission, 89.5% and 100% at the sixth hour and 89.5% and 94.4% at the twelfth hour, respectively. Findings of this study indicate that the predictive value of FOUR score and GCS on the outcome of multiple trauma patients admitted to the emergency department is similar.

  9. Fear among the extremes: how political ideology predicts negative emotions and outgroup derogation.

    PubMed

    van Prooijen, Jan-Willem; Krouwel, André P M; Boiten, Max; Eendebak, Lennart

    2015-04-01

    The "rigidity of the right" hypothesis predicts that particularly the political right experiences fear and derogates outgroups. We propose that above and beyond that, the political extremes (at both sides of the spectrum) are more likely to display these responses than political moderates. Results of a large-scale sample reveal the predicted quadratic term on socio-economic fear. Moreover, although the political right is more likely to derogate the specific category of immigrants, we find a quadratic effect on derogation of a broad range of societal categories. Both extremes also experience stronger negative emotions about politics than politically moderate respondents. Finally, the quadratic effects on derogation of societal groups and negative political emotions were mediated by socio-economic fear, particularly among left- and right-wing extremists. It is concluded that negative emotions and outgroup derogation flourish among the extremes. © 2015 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

  10. Neural responses to negative outcomes predict success in community-based substance use treatment

    PubMed Central

    Forster, Sarah E.; Finn, Peter R.; Brown, Joshua W.

    2017-01-01

    Background and aims Activation in some specific brain regions has demonstrated promise as prognostic indicators in substance dependent individuals (SDIs) but this issue has not yet been explored in SDIs attending typical of community-based treatment. We used a data-driven, exploratory approach to identify brain-based predictors of treatment outcome in a representative community sample of SDIs. The predictive utility of brain-based measures was evaluated against clinical indicators, cognitive-behavioral performance, and self-report assessments. Design Prospective clinical outcome design, evaluating baseline functional magnetic resonance imaging data from the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART) as a predictor of 3-month substance use treatment outcomes. Setting Community-based substance use programs in Bloomington, Indiana, USA. Participants Twenty-three SDIs (17 male, ages 18–43) in an intensive outpatient or residential treatment program; abstinent 1–4 weeks at baseline. Measurements Event-related brain response, BART performance, and self-report scores at treatment onset, substance use outcome measure (based on days of use) Findings Using voxel-level predictive modeling and leave-one-out cross-validation, an elevated response to unexpected negative feedback in bilateral amygdala and anterior hippocampus (Amyg/aHipp) at baseline successfully predicted greater substance use over the 3-month study interval (p ≤ 0.006, cluster-corrected). This effect was robust to inclusion of significant non-brain-based covariates. A larger response to negative feedback in bilateral Amyg/aHipp was also associated with faster reward-seeking responses after negative feedback (r(23) = −0.544, p = 0.007; r(23) = −0.588, p = 0.003). A model including Amyg/aHipp activation, faster reward-seeking after negative feedback, and significant self-report scores accounted for 45% of the variance in substance use outcomes in our sample. Conclusions An elevated response to unexpected

  11. Positive and negative life events and personality traits in predicting course of depression and anxiety.

    PubMed

    Spinhoven, P; Elzinga, B M; Hovens, J G F M; Roelofs, K; van Oppen, P; Zitman, F G; Penninx, B W J H

    2011-12-01

    To examine the prognostic value of personality dimensions and negative and positive life events for diagnostic and symptom course trajectories in depressive and anxiety disorder. A total of 1209 subjects (18-65 years) with depressive and/or anxiety disorder were recruited in primary and specialized mental health care. Personality dimensions at baseline were assessed with the NEO-FFI and incidence and date of life events retrospectively with a structured interview at 2-year follow-up. DSM-IV-based diagnostic interviews as well as life chart assessments allowed course assessment at both the diagnostic and symptom trajectory level over 2 years. Life events were significantly related to diagnostic and symptom course trajectories of depression and anxiety also after correcting for sociodemographic and clinical characteristics. Only negative life events prospectively predicted longer time to remission of depressive disorder. Prospective associations of neuroticism and extraversion with prognosis of anxiety and depression were greatly reduced after correcting for baseline severity and duration of index disorder. Personality traits did not moderate the effect of life events on 2-year course indicators. Negative life events have an independent effect on diagnostic and symptom course trajectories of depression and to a lesser extent anxiety unconfounded by sociodemographic, clinical, and personality characteristics. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

  12. Predictive value of serum β-hCG for early pregnancy outcomes among women with recurrent spontaneous abortion.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yinglin; Liu, Yukun; Li, Xuejiao; Jiao, Xuedan; Zhang, Rui; Zhang, Jianping

    2016-10-01

    To examine peak serum levels of the β-subunit of human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG) for prediction of early pregnancy outcomes among women with recurrent spontaneous abortion (RSA). In a retrospective study, the medical records of pregnant women with a history of RSA treated at Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital, China, between January 2011 and July 2013 were reviewed. Serum β-hCG had been measured twice weekly from 5 to 13weeks of pregnancy, and pregnancy was monitored by transvaginal ultrasonography to 13(+6)weeks. Optimal cutoff for peak β-hCG level was determined by receiver operator characteristic curve analysis and Youden index. Women were divided into four groups on the basis of optimal peak β-hCG cutoff and pregnancy outcome (pregnancy at 13weeks or spontaneous abortion). Peak β-hCG levels and length of pregnancy at this peak were examined. Overall, 1240 patients were included. The optimal cutoff value of peak β-hCG was 88 468IU/L, with a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value for successful pregnancy of 95.6%, 88.0%, 95.6%, and 89.0%, respectively. A faster rise in β-hCG, higher peak β-hCG, and longer pregnancy length at peak β-hCG were associated with successful early pregnancy. A cutoff value of serum β-hCG of 88 000IU/L could be used to predict early pregnancy outcomes for women with a history of RSA. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  13. Misestimating betting behavior: the role of negative asymmetries in emotional self prediction.

    PubMed

    Andrade, Eduardo B; Claro, Danny P; Islam, Gazi

    2014-12-01

    This paper addresses the role of negative asymmetries in emotional self-prediction by looking at the extent to which individuals misestimate their own betting behavior in sequential gambles. In a series of three experimental studies, we demonstrate that losses lead to higher than planned bets whereas bets are on average carried over after gains. Such asymmetric deviations from the plan emerge (1) when monetary and non-monetary incentives are used, and (2) when participants face fair and unfair gambles. The asymmetry is based on people's inability to predict how much the negative emotions generated by a bad experience (e.g. the loss) will influence them to put more effort (e.g. bet more) than planned in an attempt to re-establish a homeostatic state in the prospect of a good experience (e.g. winning).

  14. Predictive value of abdominal CT in evaluating internal herniation after bariatric laparoscopic Roux-en-Y gastric bypass.

    PubMed

    Ederveen, J C; van Berckel, M M G; Nienhuijs, S W; Weber, R J P; Nederend, J

    2018-06-04

    Internal herniation, a serious complication after bariatric surgery, is challenging to diagnose. The aim of this study was to determine the accuracy of abdominal CT in diagnosing internal herniation. The study included consecutive patients who had undergone laparoscopic gastric bypass surgery between 1 January 2011 and 1 January 2015 at a bariatric centre of excellence. To select patients suspected of having internal herniation, reports of abdominal CT and reoperations up to 1 January 2017 were screened. CT was presumed negative for internal herniation if no follow-up CT or reoperation was performed within 90 days after the initial CT, or no internal herniation was found during reoperation. The accuracy of abdominal CT in diagnosing internal herniation was calculated using two-way contingency tables. A total of 1475 patients were included (84·7 per cent women, mean age 46·5 years, median initial BMI 41·8 kg/m 2 ). CT and/or reoperation was performed in 192 patients (13·0 per cent) in whom internal herniation was suspected. Internal herniation was proven laparoscopically in 37 of these patients. The incidence of internal herniation was 2·5 per cent. An analysis by complaint included a total of 265 episodes, for which 247 CT scans were undertaken. CT was not used to investigate 18 episodes, but internal herniation was encountered in one-third of these during reoperation. Combining the follow-up and intraoperative findings, the accuracy of CT for internal herniation had a sensitivity of 83·8 (95 per cent c.i. 67·3 to 93·2) per cent, a specificity of 87·1 (81·7 to 91·2) per cent, a positive predictive value of 53·4 (40·0 to 66·5) per cent and a negative predictive value of 96·8 (92·9 to 98·7) per cent. Abdominal CT is an important tool in diagnosing internal herniation, with a high specificity and a high negative predictive value. © 2018 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. The preference of probability over negative values in action selection.

    PubMed

    Neyedli, Heather F; Welsh, Timothy N

    2015-01-01

    It has previously been found that when participants are presented with a pair of motor prospects, they can select the prospect with the largest maximum expected gain (MEG). Many of those decisions, however, were trivial because of large differences in MEG between the prospects. The purpose of the present study was to explore participants' preferences when making non-trivial decisions between two motor prospects. Participants were presented with pairs of prospects that: 1) differed in MEG with either only the values or only the probabilities differing between the prospects; and 2) had similar MEG with one prospect having a larger probability of hitting the target and a higher penalty value and the other prospect a smaller probability of hitting the target but a lower penalty value. In different experiments, participants either had 400 ms or 2000 ms to decide between the prospects. It was found that participants chose the configuration with the larger MEG more often when the probability varied between prospects than when the value varied. In pairs with similar MEGs, participants preferred a larger probability of hitting the target over a smaller penalty value. These results indicate that participants prefer probability information over negative value information in a motor selection task.

  16. Hemispheric Asymmetries in Striatal Reward Responses Relate to Approach-Avoidance Learning and Encoding of Positive-Negative Prediction Errors in Dopaminergic Midbrain Regions.

    PubMed

    Aberg, Kristoffer Carl; Doell, Kimberly C; Schwartz, Sophie

    2015-10-28

    Some individuals are better at learning about rewarding situations, whereas others are inclined to avoid punishments (i.e., enhanced approach or avoidance learning, respectively). In reinforcement learning, action values are increased when outcomes are better than predicted (positive prediction errors [PEs]) and decreased for worse than predicted outcomes (negative PEs). Because actions with high and low values are approached and avoided, respectively, individual differences in the neural encoding of PEs may influence the balance between approach-avoidance learning. Recent correlational approaches also indicate that biases in approach-avoidance learning involve hemispheric asymmetries in dopamine function. However, the computational and neural mechanisms underpinning such learning biases remain unknown. Here we assessed hemispheric reward asymmetry in striatal activity in 34 human participants who performed a task involving rewards and punishments. We show that the relative difference in reward response between hemispheres relates to individual biases in approach-avoidance learning. Moreover, using a computational modeling approach, we demonstrate that better encoding of positive (vs negative) PEs in dopaminergic midbrain regions is associated with better approach (vs avoidance) learning, specifically in participants with larger reward responses in the left (vs right) ventral striatum. Thus, individual dispositions or traits may be determined by neural processes acting to constrain learning about specific aspects of the world. Copyright © 2015 the authors 0270-6474/15/3514491-10$15.00/0.

  17. Inducing Negative Affect Increases the Reward Value of Appetizing Foods in Dieters

    PubMed Central

    Wagner, Dylan D.; Boswell, Rebecca G.; Kelley, William M.; Heatherton, Todd F.

    2013-01-01

    Experiencing negative affect frequently precedes lapses in self-control for dieters, smokers, and drug addicts. Laboratory research has similarly shown that inducing negative emotional distress increases the consumption of food or drugs. One hypothesis for this finding is that emotional distress sensitizes the brain’s reward system to appetitive stimuli. Using functional neuroimaging, we demonstrate that inducing negative affect in chronic dieters increases activity in brain regions representing the reward value of appetitive stimuli when viewing appetizing food cues. Thirty female chronic dieters were randomly assigned to receive either a negative (n = 15) or neutral mood induction (n = 15) immediately followed by exposure to images of appetizing foods and natural scenes during functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Compared to chronic dieters in a neutral mood, those receiving a negative mood induction showed increased activity in the orbitofrontal cortex to appetizing food images. In addition, activity to food images in the orbitofrontal cortex and ventral striatum was correlated with individual differences in the degree to which the negative mood induction decreased participants’ self-esteem. These findings suggest that distress sensitizes the brain’s reward system to appetitive cues thereby offering a mechanism for the oft-observed relationship between negative affect and disinhibited eating. PMID:22524295

  18. Added value of delayed computed tomography angiography in primary intracranial hemorrhage and hematoma size for predicting spot sign.

    PubMed

    Wu, Te Chang; Chen, Tai Yuan; Shiue, Yow Ling; Chen, Jeon Hor; Hsieh, Tsyh-Jyi; Ko, Ching Chung; Lin, Ching Po

    2018-04-01

    Background The computed tomography angiography (CTA) spot sign represents active contrast extravasation within acute primary intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) and is an independent predictor of hematoma expansion (HE) and poor clinical outcomes. The spot sign could be detected on first-pass CTA (fpCTA) or delayed CTA (dCTA). Purpose To investigate the additional benefits of dCTA spot sign in primary ICH and hematoma size for predicting spot sign. Material and Methods This is a retrospective study of 100 patients who underwent non-contrast CT (NCCT) and CTA within 24 h of onset of primary ICH. The presence of spot sign on fpCTA or dCTA, and hematoma size on NCCT were recorded. The spot sign on fpCTA or dCTA for predicting significant HE, in-hospital mortality, and poor clinical outcomes (mRS ≥ 4) are calculated. The hematoma size for prediction of CTA spot sign was also analyzed. Results Only the spot sign on dCTA could predict high risk of significant HE and poor clinical outcomes as on fpCTA ( P < 0.05). With dCTA, there is increased sensitivity and negative predictive value (NPV) for predicting significant HE, in-hospital mortality, and poor clinical outcomes. The XY value (product of the two maximum perpendicular axial dimensions) is the best predictor (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.82) for predicting spot sign on fpCTA or dCTA in the absence of intraventricular and subarachnoid hemorrhage. Conclusion This study clarifies that dCTA imaging could improve predictive performance of CTA in primary ICH. Furthermore, the XY value is the best predictor for CTA spot sign.

  19. Predicting double negativity using transmitted phase in space coiling metamaterials.

    PubMed

    Maurya, Santosh K; Pandey, Abhishek; Shukla, Shobha; Saxena, Sumit

    2018-05-01

    Metamaterials are engineered materials that offer the flexibility to manipulate the incident waves leading to exotic applications such as cloaking, extraordinary transmission, sub-wavelength imaging and negative refraction. These concepts have largely been explored in the context of electromagnetic waves. Acoustic metamaterials, similar to their optical counterparts, demonstrate anomalous effective elastic properties. Recent developments have shown that coiling up the propagation path of acoustic wave results in effective elastic response of the metamaterial beyond the natural response of its constituent materials. The effective response of metamaterials is generally evaluated using the 'S' parameter retrieval method based on amplitude of the waves. The phase of acoustic waves contains information of wave pressure and particle velocity. Here, we show using finite-element methods that phase reversal of transmitted waves may be used to predict extreme acoustic properties in space coiling metamaterials. This change is the difference in the phase of the transmitted wave with respect to the incident wave. This method is simpler when compared with the more rigorous 'S' parameter retrieval method. The inferences drawn using this method have been verified experimentally for labyrinthine metamaterials by showing negative refraction for the predicted band of frequencies.

  20. Negative ?Nd in Anorthositic Clasts in Yamato 86032 and MAC88105: Evidence for the LMO?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nyquist, L. E.; Bogard, D. D.; Shih, C. Y.; Wiesmann, H.

    2002-03-01

    The LMO model predicts flotation cumulates with negative epsilon Nd values, but Apollo 16 FANs have positive epsilon Nd values. Ar-Ar ages plus bulk-rock Sm-Nd data for two FAN breccias from two lunar meteorites give negative epsilon Nd values.

  1. On prediction of genetic values in marker-assisted selection.

    PubMed Central

    Lange, C; Whittaker, J C

    2001-01-01

    We suggest a new approximation for the prediction of genetic values in marker-assisted selection. The new approximation is compared to the standard approach. It is shown that the new approach will often provide substantially better prediction of genetic values; furthermore the new approximation avoids some of the known statistical problems of the standard approach. The advantages of the new approach are illustrated by a simulation study in which the new approximation outperforms both the standard approach and phenotypic selection. PMID:11729177

  2. Negative affective spillover from daily events predicts early response to cognitive therapy for depression.

    PubMed

    Cohen, Lawrence H; Gunthert, Kathleen C; Butler, Andrew C; Parrish, Brendt P; Wenze, Susan J; Beck, Judith S

    2008-12-01

    This study evaluated the predictive role of depressed outpatients' (N = 62) affective reactivity to daily stressors in their rates of improvement in cognitive therapy (CT). For 1 week before treatment, patients completed nightly electronic diaries that assessed daily stressors and negative affect (NA). The authors used multilevel modeling to compute each patient's within-day relationship between daily stressors and daily NA (within-day reactivity), as well as the relationship between daily stressors and next-day NA (next-day reactivity; affective spillover). In growth model analyses, the authors evaluated the predictive role of patients' NA reactivity in their early (Sessions 1-4) and late (Sessions 5-12) response to CT. Within-day NA reactivity did not predict early or late response to CT. However, next-day reactivity predicted early response to CT, such that patients who had greater NA spillover in response to negative events had a slower rate of symptom change during the first 4 sessions. Affective spillover did not influence later response to CT. The findings suggest that depressed patients who have difficulty bouncing back the next day from their NA reactions to a relative increase in daily negative events will respond less quickly to the early sessions of CT.

  3. TargetMiner: microRNA target prediction with systematic identification of tissue-specific negative examples.

    PubMed

    Bandyopadhyay, Sanghamitra; Mitra, Ramkrishna

    2009-10-15

    Prediction of microRNA (miRNA) target mRNAs using machine learning approaches is an important area of research. However, most of the methods suffer from either high false positive or false negative rates. One reason for this is the marked deficiency of negative examples or miRNA non-target pairs. Systematic identification of non-target mRNAs is still not addressed properly, and therefore, current machine learning approaches are compelled to rely on artificially generated negative examples for training. In this article, we have identified approximately 300 tissue-specific negative examples using a novel approach that involves expression profiling of both miRNAs and mRNAs, miRNA-mRNA structural interactions and seed-site conservation. The newly generated negative examples are validated with pSILAC dataset, which elucidate the fact that the identified non-targets are indeed non-targets.These high-throughput tissue-specific negative examples and a set of experimentally verified positive examples are then used to build a system called TargetMiner, a support vector machine (SVM)-based classifier. In addition to assessing the prediction accuracy on cross-validation experiments, TargetMiner has been validated with a completely independent experimental test dataset. Our method outperforms 10 existing target prediction algorithms and provides a good balance between sensitivity and specificity that is not reflected in the existing methods. We achieve a significantly higher sensitivity and specificity of 69% and 67.8% based on a pool of 90 feature set and 76.5% and 66.1% using a set of 30 selected feature set on the completely independent test dataset. In order to establish the effectiveness of the systematically generated negative examples, the SVM is trained using a different set of negative data generated using the method in Yousef et al. A significantly higher false positive rate (70.6%) is observed when tested on the independent set, while all other factors are kept the

  4. Virtual World Currency Value Fluctuation Prediction System Based on User Sentiment Analysis.

    PubMed

    Kim, Young Bin; Lee, Sang Hyeok; Kang, Shin Jin; Choi, Myung Jin; Lee, Jung; Kim, Chang Hun

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we present a method for predicting the value of virtual currencies used in virtual gaming environments that support multiple users, such as massively multiplayer online role-playing games (MMORPGs). Predicting virtual currency values in a virtual gaming environment has rarely been explored; it is difficult to apply real-world methods for predicting fluctuating currency values or shares to the virtual gaming world on account of differences in domains between the two worlds. To address this issue, we herein predict virtual currency value fluctuations by collecting user opinion data from a virtual community and analyzing user sentiments or emotions from the opinion data. The proposed method is straightforward and applicable to predicting virtual currencies as well as to gaming environments, including MMORPGs. We test the proposed method using large-scale MMORPGs and demonstrate that virtual currencies can be effectively and efficiently predicted with it.

  5. Virtual World Currency Value Fluctuation Prediction System Based on User Sentiment Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Young Bin; Lee, Sang Hyeok; Kang, Shin Jin; Choi, Myung Jin; Lee, Jung; Kim, Chang Hun

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we present a method for predicting the value of virtual currencies used in virtual gaming environments that support multiple users, such as massively multiplayer online role-playing games (MMORPGs). Predicting virtual currency values in a virtual gaming environment has rarely been explored; it is difficult to apply real-world methods for predicting fluctuating currency values or shares to the virtual gaming world on account of differences in domains between the two worlds. To address this issue, we herein predict virtual currency value fluctuations by collecting user opinion data from a virtual community and analyzing user sentiments or emotions from the opinion data. The proposed method is straightforward and applicable to predicting virtual currencies as well as to gaming environments, including MMORPGs. We test the proposed method using large-scale MMORPGs and demonstrate that virtual currencies can be effectively and efficiently predicted with it. PMID:26241496

  6. Clinical value of preoperative serum CA 19-9 and CA 125 levels in predicting the resectability of hilar cholangiocarcinoma.

    PubMed

    Hu, Hai-Jie; Mao, Hui; Tan, Yong-Qiong; Shrestha, Anuj; Ma, Wen-Jie; Yang, Qin; Wang, Jun-Ke; Cheng, Nan-Sheng; Li, Fu-Yu

    2016-01-01

    To examine the predictive value of tumor markers for evaluating tumor resectability in patients with hilar cholangiocarcinoma and to explore the prognostic effect of various preoperative factors on resectability in patients with potentially resectable tumors. Patients with potentially resectable tumors judged by radiologic examination were included. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was conducted to evaluate serum carbohydrate antigenic determinant 19-9 (CA 19-9), carbohydrate antigen 125 (CA 125) and carcino embryonie antigen levels on tumor resectability. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were also conducted to analysis the correlation of preoperative factors with resectability. In patients with normal bilirubin levels, ROC curve analysis calculated the ideal CA 19-9 cut-off value of 203.96 U/ml in prediction of resectability, with a sensitivity of 83.7 %, specificity of 80 %, positive predictive value of 91.1 % and negative predictive value of 66.7 %. Meanwhile, the optimal cut-off value for CA 125 to predict resectability was 25.905 U/ml (sensitivity, 78.6 %; specificity, 67.5 %). In a multivariate logistic regression model, tumor size ≤3 cm (OR 4.149, 95 % CI 1.326-12.981, P = 0.015), preoperative CA 19-9 level ≤200 U/ml (OR 20.324, 95 % CI 6.509-63.467, P < 0.001), preoperative CA 125 levels ≤26 U/ml (OR 8.209, 95 % CI 2.624-25.677, P < 0.001) were independent determinants of resectability in patients diagnosed as hilar cholangiocarcinoma. Preoperative CA 19-9 and CA 125 levels predict resectability in patients with radiological resectable hilar cholangiocarcinoma. Increased preoperative CA 19-9 levels and CA 125 levels are associated with poor resectability rate.

  7. [Predictive value of Ages & Stages Questionnaires for cognitive performance at early years of schooling].

    PubMed

    Schonhaut B, Luisa; Pérez R, Marcela; Castilla F, Ana María; Castro M, Sonia; Salinas A, Patricia; Armijo R, Iván

    2016-10-13

    The Ages and Stages questionnaires (ASQ) has been recently validated in our country for developmental screening. The objective of this study is evaluate the validity of ASQ to predict low cognitive performance in the early years of schooling. Diagnostic test studies conducted on a sample of children of medium-high socioeconomic level were evaluated using ASQ at least once at 8, 18 and/or 30 months old, and later, between 6 and 9 years old, reevaluated using the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-third edition (WISC-III). Each ASQ evaluation was recorded independently. WISC-III was standardized, considering underperformance when the total score were under -1 standard deviation RESULTS: 123 children, corresponding to 174 ASQ assessments (42 of them were 8 months old, 55 were 18 months and 77 were 30 months of age) were included. An area under the ROC curve of 80.7% was obtained, showing higher values at 8 months (98.0%) compared to 18 and 30 months old (78.1 and 79.3%, respectively). Considering different ASQ scoring criteria, a low sensitivity (27.8 to 50.0%), but a high specificity (78.8 to 96.2%) were obtained; the positive predictive value ranged between 21 and 46%, while the negative value was 92.0-93.2%. ASQ has low sensitivity but excellent specificity to predict a low cognitive performance during the first years of schooling, being a good alternative to monitor psychomotor development in children who attend the private sector healthcare in our country. Copyright © 2016 Sociedad Chilena de Pediatría. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  8. Predicting Negative Discipline in Traditional Families: A Multi-Dimensional Stress Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fisher, Philip A.

    An attempt is made to integrate existing theories of family violence by introducing the concept of family role stress. Role stressors may be defined as factors inhibiting the enactment of family roles. Multiple regression analyses were performed on data from 190 families to test a hypothesis involving the prediction of negative discipline at…

  9. Clinical value of whole-blood interferon-gamma assay in patients with suspected pulmonary tuberculosis and AFB smear- and polymerase chain reaction-negative bronchial aspirates.

    PubMed

    Lee, Jaehee; Lee, Shin Yup; Yoo, Seung Soo; Cha, Seung Ick; Won, Dong Il; Park, Jae Yong; Lee, Won-Kil; Kim, Chang Ho

    2012-07-01

    Combining a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test with bronchoscopy is frequently performed to allow a rapid diagnosis of smear-negative pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB). However, limited data are available concerning clinical judgment in patients with suspected PTB and AFB smear- and PCR-negative bronchial aspirates (BA). The present study evaluated the usefulness of whole-blood QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube (QFT) testing in these patients. Of 166 patients with suspected PTB who had undergone bronchoscopy because of smear-negative sputum or inadequate sputum production, 93 (56%) were diagnosed with culture-positive PTB. Seventy-four patients were either AFB smear- or PCR-positive. In the 75 patients whose BA AFB smear and PCR results were both negative, 19 were finally diagnosed with PTB by culture. The QFT test had a negative predictive value of 91% for PTB. The QFT test may be useful for excluding PTB in patients with suspected PTB whose BA AFB smear and PCR results are both negative. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Predictive value and efficiency of laboratory testing.

    PubMed

    Galen, R S

    1980-11-01

    Literature on determining reference values and reference intervals on "normal" or "healthy" individuals is abundant. It is impossible, however, to evaluate a data set of reference values and select a suitable reference interval that will be meaningful for the practice of medicine. The reference interval, no matter how derived statistically, tells us nothing about disease. This is the main reason the concepts of "normal values" have failed us and why "reference values" will prove similarly disappointing. By studying these same constituents in a variety of disease states as well, it will be possible to select "referent values" that will make the test procedure meaningful for diagnostic purposes. In order to obtain meaningful referent values for predicting disease, it is necessary to study not only the "healthy" reference population, but patients with the disease in question, and patients who are free of the disease in question but who have other diseases. Studies of this type are not frequently found for laboratory tests that are in common use today.

  11. The diagnostic value of troponin T testing in the community setting.

    PubMed

    Planer, David; Leibowitz, David; Paltiel, Ora; Boukhobza, Rina; Lotan, Chaim; Weiss, Teddy A

    2006-03-08

    Many patients presenting with chest pain to their family physician are referred to the emergency room, in part, due to lack of accurate objective diagnostic tools. This study aimed to assess the diagnostic value of bedside troponin T kit testing in patients presenting with chest pain to their family physician. Prospective, multi-center study. Consecutive subjects with chest pain were recruited from 44 community clinics in Jerusalem. Following clinical assessment by the family physician, qualitative troponin kit testing was performed. Patients with a negative clinical assessment and negative troponin kit were sent home and all others were referred to the emergency room. The final diagnosis at the time of hospital discharge was recorded and telephone follow up was performed after 60 days. Positive predictive value, negative predictive value, sensitivity and specificity of troponin kit for myocardial infarction diagnosis and of family physician for hospitalization, were assessed. Of 392 patients enrolled, 349 (89%) were included in the final analysis. The prevalence of myocardial infarction was 1.7%. The positive and negative predictive values of the troponin kit for myocardial infarction diagnosis were 100% and 99.7%, respectively. The positive and negative predictive values of the family physician's assessment to predict hospitalization were 41.4% and 94.1%, respectively. Troponin kit testing is an important tool to assist the family physician in the assessment of patients with chest pain in the community setting. Troponin kit testing may identify otherwise undiagnosed cases of myocardial infarctions, and reduce unnecessary referrals to the emergency room.

  12. Mothers' depressive symptoms predict both increased and reduced negative reactivity: aversion sensitivity and the regulation of emotion.

    PubMed

    Dix, Theodore; Moed, Anat; Anderson, Edward R

    2014-07-01

    This study examined whether, as mothers' depressive symptoms increase, their expressions of negative emotion to children increasingly reflect aversion sensitivity and motivation to minimize ongoing stress or discomfort. In multiple interactions over 2 years, negative affect expressed by 319 mothers and their children was observed across variations in mothers' depressive symptoms, the aversiveness of children's immediate behavior, and observed differences in children's general negative reactivity. As expected, depressive symptoms predicted reduced maternal negative reactivity when child behavior was low in aversiveness, particularly with children who were high in negative reactivity. Depressive symptoms predicted high negative reactivity and steep increases in negative reactivity as the aversiveness of child behavior increased, particularly when high and continued aversiveness from the child was expected (i.e., children were high in negative reactivity). The findings are consistent with the proposal that deficits in parenting competence as depressive symptoms increase reflect aversion sensitivity and motivation to avoid conflict and suppress children's aversive behavior. © The Author(s) 2014.

  13. The predictive value of the baseline Oswestry Disability Index in lumbar disc arthroplasty.

    PubMed

    Deutsch, Harel

    2010-06-01

    The goal of the study was to determine patient factors predictive of good outcome after lumbar disc arthroplasty. Specifically, the paper examines the relationship of the preoperative Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) to patient outcome at 1 year. The study is a retrospective review of 20 patients undergoing a 1-level lumbar disc arthroplasty at the author's institution between 2004 and 2008. All data were collected prospectively. Data included the ODI, visual analog scale scores, and patient demographics. All patients underwent a 1-level disc arthroplasty at L4-5 or L5-S1. The patients were divided into 2 groups based on their baseline ODI. Patients with an ODI between 38 and 59 demonstrated better outcomes with lumbar disc arthroplasty. Only 1 (20%) of 5 patients with a baseline ODI higher than 60 reported a good outcome. In contrast, 13 (87%) of 15 patients with an ODI between 38 and 59 showed a good outcome (p = 0.03). The negative predictive value of using ODI > 60 is 60% in patients who are determined to be candidates for lumbar arthroplasty. Lumbar arthroplasty is very effective in some patients. Other patients do not improve after surgery. The baseline ODI results are predictive of outcome in patients selected for lumbar disc arthroplasty. A baseline ODI > 60 is predictive of poor outcome. A high ODI may be indicative of psychosocial overlay.

  14. Negative methylation status of Vimentin predicts improved prognosis in pancreatic carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Zhou, Yi-Feng; Xu, Wei; Wang, Xia; Sun, Jin-Shan; Xiang, Jing-Jing; Li, Zhao-Shen; Zhang, Xiao-Feng

    2014-01-01

    AIM: To determine the existence of a potential relationship between the methylation state of the Vimentin gene and its prognostic value in pancreatic cancer. METHODS: Sixty-four primary tumor specimens and normal tissues were collected consecutively from pancreatic cancer patients during surgery at Hangzhou First People’s Hospital and Affiliated Hospital of the Logistics University of the Chinese People’s Armed Police Force. DNA was extracted from the samples and subsequently quantitative methylation-specific polymerase chain reaction was used to detect the Vimentin methylation status of the samples. All of the patients were followed up to December 2012. χ2 test, Kaplan-Meier survival and Cox regression statistical models were used. RESULTS: Out of 64 pancreatic cancer tissues, 21 were marked as Vimentin methylation-positive, and 43 were marked as Vimentin methylation-negative. The location of pancreatic carcinoma was related to the Vimentin methylation state. The pathological T staging (P < 0.001), adjuvant chemotherapy (P = 0.003) and the Vimentin methylation state (P = 0.037) were independent prognostic factors. CONCLUSION: In our study, Vimentin methylation status can predict the prognosis of pancreatic cancer patients. However, additional experiments and clinical trials are needed to accurately validate this observation. PMID:25278713

  15. Pupillary reactivity to negative stimuli prospectively predicts recurrence of major depressive disorder in women.

    PubMed

    Kudinova, Anastacia Y; Burkhouse, Katie L; Siegle, Greg; Owens, Max; Woody, Mary L; Gibb, Brandon E

    2016-12-01

    There is a large body of research supporting the association between disrupted physiological reactivity to negative stimuli and depression. The present study aimed to examine whether physiological reactivity to emotional stimuli, assessed via pupil dilation, served as a biological marker of risk for depression recurrence among individuals who are known to be at a higher risk due to having previous history of depression. Participants were 57 women with a history of major depressive disorder (MDD). Pupil dilation to angry, happy, sad, and neutral faces was recorded. Participants' diagnoses and symptoms were assessed 24 months after the initial assessment. We found that women's pupillary reactivity to negative (sad or angry faces) but not positive stimuli prospectively predicted MDD recurrence. Additionally, we found that both hyper- and hypopupillary reactivity to angry faces predicted risk for MDD recurrence. These findings suggest that disrupted physiological response to negative stimuli indexed via pupillary dilation could serve as a physiological marker of MDD risk, thus presenting clinicians with a convenient and inexpensive method to predict which of the at-risk women are more likely to experience depression recurrence. © 2016 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

  16. Predictive value of pulse pressure variation for fluid responsiveness in septic patients using lung-protective ventilation strategies.

    PubMed

    Freitas, F G R; Bafi, A T; Nascente, A P M; Assunção, M; Mazza, B; Azevedo, L C P; Machado, F R

    2013-03-01

    The applicability of pulse pressure variation (ΔPP) to predict fluid responsiveness using lung-protective ventilation strategies is uncertain in clinical practice. We designed this study to evaluate the accuracy of this parameter in predicting the fluid responsiveness of septic patients ventilated with low tidal volumes (TV) (6 ml kg(-1)). Forty patients after the resuscitation phase of severe sepsis and septic shock who were mechanically ventilated with 6 ml kg(-1) were included. The ΔPP was obtained automatically at baseline and after a standardized fluid challenge (7 ml kg(-1)). Patients whose cardiac output increased by more than 15% were considered fluid responders. The predictive values of ΔPP and static variables [right atrial pressure (RAP) and pulmonary artery occlusion pressure (PAOP)] were evaluated through a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Thirty-four patients had characteristics consistent with acute lung injury or acute respiratory distress syndrome and were ventilated with high levels of PEEP [median (inter-quartile range) 10.0 (10.0-13.5)]. Nineteen patients were considered fluid responders. The RAP and PAOP significantly increased, and ΔPP significantly decreased after volume expansion. The ΔPP performance [ROC curve area: 0.91 (0.82-1.0)] was better than that of the RAP [ROC curve area: 0.73 (0.59-0.90)] and pulmonary artery occlusion pressure [ROC curve area: 0.58 (0.40-0.76)]. The ROC curve analysis revealed that the best cut-off for ΔPP was 6.5%, with a sensitivity of 0.89, specificity of 0.90, positive predictive value of 0.89, and negative predictive value of 0.90. Automatized ΔPP accurately predicted fluid responsiveness in septic patients ventilated with low TV.

  17. Do cognitive deficits predict negative emotionality and aggression in schizophrenia?

    PubMed

    Ahmed, Anthony O; Richardson, Jenae; Buckner, Alex; Romanoff, Sabrina; Feder, Michelle; Oragunye, Njideka; Ilnicki, Andriana; Bhat, Ishrat; Hoptman, Matthew J; Lindenmayer, Jean-Pierre

    2018-01-01

    Schizophrenia is associated with an elevated risk of aggression. Cognitive deficits have been associated with inpatient aggression and future violence. The relationship between cognitive deficits and violent behavior has however been inconsistent across studies. In addition, studies have failed to inform how cognitive deficits may contribute to aggression in schizophrenia. The current study examined the association of cognitive deficits with schizophrenia-related aggression and violent offending. It also explored the putative mediating role of negative emotionality on the impact of cognitive deficits on aggression. People with schizophrenia and schizoaffective disorder (N = 78) were recruited from a state hospital. Participants were classified based on their history of violent offending. Participants completed measures of cognition, symptoms, and aggression. Deficits in working memory, reasoning/problem-solving, and verbal learning were the most prioritized for the prediction of violent offender status. Violent offenders demonstrated greater impairments in most cognitive domains especially working memory and verbal learning. Offenders also demonstrated greater negative emotionality, excitement/agitation, and incidents of verbal and physical aggression. Negative emotionality and excitement/agitation fully transmitted the effect of cognitive deficits on impulsive aggression in meditational models. Cognitive deficits increase the risk of impulsive aggression in schizophrenia via inefficient regulation of negative affective states. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Negative correlation learning for customer churn prediction: a comparison study.

    PubMed

    Rodan, Ali; Fayyoumi, Ayham; Faris, Hossam; Alsakran, Jamal; Al-Kadi, Omar

    2015-01-01

    Recently, telecommunication companies have been paying more attention toward the problem of identification of customer churn behavior. In business, it is well known for service providers that attracting new customers is much more expensive than retaining existing ones. Therefore, adopting accurate models that are able to predict customer churn can effectively help in customer retention campaigns and maximizing the profit. In this paper we will utilize an ensemble of Multilayer perceptrons (MLP) whose training is obtained using negative correlation learning (NCL) for predicting customer churn in a telecommunication company. Experiments results confirm that NCL based MLP ensemble can achieve better generalization performance (high churn rate) compared with ensemble of MLP without NCL (flat ensemble) and other common data mining techniques used for churn analysis.

  19. Negative Correlation Learning for Customer Churn Prediction: A Comparison Study

    PubMed Central

    Faris, Hossam

    2015-01-01

    Recently, telecommunication companies have been paying more attention toward the problem of identification of customer churn behavior. In business, it is well known for service providers that attracting new customers is much more expensive than retaining existing ones. Therefore, adopting accurate models that are able to predict customer churn can effectively help in customer retention campaigns and maximizing the profit. In this paper we will utilize an ensemble of Multilayer perceptrons (MLP) whose training is obtained using negative correlation learning (NCL) for predicting customer churn in a telecommunication company. Experiments results confirm that NCL based MLP ensemble can achieve better generalization performance (high churn rate) compared with ensemble of MLP without NCL (flat ensemble) and other common data mining techniques used for churn analysis. PMID:25879060

  20. Event-related potentials reveal task-dependence and inter-individual differences in negation processing during silent listening and explicit truth-value evaluation.

    PubMed

    Herbert, C; Kissler, J

    2014-09-26

    In sentences such as dogs cannot fly/bark, evaluation of the truth-value of the sentence is assumed to appear after the negation has been integrated into the sentence structure. Moreover negation processing and truth-value processing are considered effortful processes, whereas processing of the semantic relatedness of the words within sentences is thought to occur automatically. In the present study, modulation of event-related brain potentials (N400 and late positive potential, LPP) was investigated during an implicit task (silent listening) and active truth-value evaluation to test these theoretical assumptions and determine if truth-value evaluation will be modulated by the way participants processed the negated information implicitly prior to truth-value verification. Participants first listened to negated sentences and then evaluated these sentences for their truth-value in an active evaluation task. During passive listening, the LPP was generally more pronounced for targets in false negative (FN) than true negative (TN) sentences, indicating enhanced attention allocation to semantically-related but false targets. N400 modulation by truth-value (FN>TN) was observed in 11 out of 24 participants. However, during active evaluation, processing of semantically-unrelated but true targets (TN) elicited larger N400 and LPP amplitudes as well as a pronounced frontal negativity. This pattern was particularly prominent in those 11 individuals, whose N400 modulation during silent listening indicated that they were more sensitive to violations of the truth-value than to semantic priming effects. The results provide evidence for implicit truth-value processing during silent listening of negated sentences and for task dependence related to inter-individual differences in implicit negation processing. Copyright © 2014 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Time-to-positivity, type of culture media and oxidase test performed on positive blood culture vials to predict Pseudomonas aeruginosa in patients with Gram-negative bacilli bacteraemia.

    PubMed

    Cobos-Triguero, N; Zboromyrska, Y; Morata, L; Alejo, I; De La Calle, C; Vergara, A; Cardozo, C; Arcas, M P; Soriano, A; Marco, F; Mensa, J; Almela, M; Martínez, J A

    2017-02-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the usefulness of oxidase test and time-to-positivity (TTP) in aerobic and anaerobic blood culture vials to detect the presence of Pseudomonas aeruginosa in patients with Gram-negative bacilli (GNB) bacteraemia. TTP was recorded for each aerobic and anaerobic blood culture vial of monomicrobial bacteraemia due to GNB. Oxidase test was performed in a pellet of the centrifuged content of the positive blood culture. An algorithm was developed in order to perform the oxidase test efficiently taking into account TTP and type of vial. A total of 341 episodes of GNB bacteraemia were analysed. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the oxidase test performed on positive vials with GNB to predict P. aeruginosa were 95%, 99%, 91%, and 99%, respectively. When growth was first or exclusively detected in anaerobic vials, P. aeruginosa was never identified hence the performance of the oxidase test could be avoided. When growth was only or first detected in aerobic vials, a TTP≥8h predicted P. aeruginosa in 37% or cases (63 of 169), therefore oxidase test is highly recommended. Oxidase test performed onto positive blood culture vials previously selected by TTP and type of vials is an easy and inexpensive way to predict P. aeruginosa. In most cases, this can lead to optimization of treatment in less than 24 hours.

  2. How useful are ARFI elastography cut-off values proposed by meta-analysis for predicting the significant fibrosis and compensated liver cirrhosis?

    PubMed

    Bota, Simona; Sporea, Ioan; Sirli, Roxana; Popescu, Alina; Gradinaru-Tascau, Oana

    2015-06-01

    To evaluate how often do we "miss" chronic hepatitis C patients with at least significant fibrosis (F>/=2) and those with compensated cirrhosis, by using Acoustic Radiation Force Impulse (ARFI) elastography cut-off values proposed by meta-analysis. Our study included 132 patients with chronic hepatitis C, evaluated by means of ARFI and liver biopsy (LB), in the same session. Reliable measurements were defined as: median value of 10 liver stiffness (LS) measurements with a success rate>/=60% and an interquartile range interval<30%. For predicting F>/=2 and F=4 we used the LS cut-offs proposed in the last published meta-analysis: 1.35 m/s and 1.87 m/s, respectively. Reliable LS measurements by means of ARFI were obtained in 117 patients (87.9%). In our study, 58 patients (49.6%) had LS values <1.35 m/s; from these 75.8% had F>/=2 in LB. From the 59 patients (50.4%) with LS values>/=1.35 m/s, only 6.8% had F0 or F1 in LB. Also, in our study, 88 patients (75.3%) had LS values <1.87 m/s; from these only 2.2 % had F4 in LB. From the 29 patients (24.7%) with LS values>/=1.87 m/s, 41.3% had F4 in LB. Both for prediction of at least significant fibrosis and liver cirrhosis, higher aminotransferases levels were associated with wrongly classified patients, in univariate and multivariate analysis. ARFI elastography had a very good positive predictive value (93.2%) for predicting the presence of significant fibrosis and excellent negative predictive value (97.8%) for excluding the presence of compensated liver cirrhosis.

  3. Predictive value of high-sensitivity troponin-I for future adverse cardiovascular outcome in stable patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Introduction High-sensitivity cardiac troponin I(hs-TnI) and T levels(hs-TnT) are sensitive biomarkers of cardiomyocyte turnover or necrosis. Prior studies of the predictive role of hs-TnT in type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM) patients have yielded conflicting results. This study aimed to determine whether hs-TnI, which is detectable in a higher proportion of normal subjects than hsTnT, is associated with a major adverse cardiovascular event(MACE) in T2DM patients. Methods and results We compared hs-TnI level in stored serum samples from 276 consecutive patients (mean age 65 ± 10 years; 57% male) with T2DM with that of 115 age-and sex-matched controls. All T2DM patients were prospectively followed up for at least 4 years for incidence of MACE including heart failure(HF), myocardial infarction(MI) and cardiovascular mortality. At baseline, 274(99%) patients with T2DM had detectable hs-TnI, and 57(21%) had elevated hs-TnI (male: 8.5 ng/L, female: 7.6 ng/L, above the 99th percentile in healthy controls). A total of 43 MACE occurred: HF(n = 18), MI(n = 11) and cardiovascular mortality(n = 14). Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that an elevated hs-TnI was associated with MACE, HF, MI and cardiovascular mortality. Although multivariate analysis revealed that an elevated hs-TnI independently predicted MACE, it had limited sensitivity(62.7%) and positive predictive value(38.5%). Contrary to this, a normal hs-TnI level had an excellent negative predictive value(92.2%) for future MACE in patients with T2DM. Conclusion The present study demonstrates that elevated hs-TnI in patients with T2DM is associated with increased MACE, HF, MI and cardiovascular mortality. Importantly, a normal hs-TnI level has an excellent negative predictive value for future adverse cardiovascular events during long-term follow-up. PMID:24661773

  4. Markovian prediction of future values for food grains in the economic survey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sathish, S.; Khadar Babu, S. K.

    2017-11-01

    Now-a-days prediction and forecasting are plays a vital role in research. For prediction, regression is useful to predict the future value and current value on production process. In this paper, we assume food grain production exhibit Markov chain dependency and time homogeneity. The economic generative performance evaluation the balance time artificial fertilization different level in Estrusdetection using a daily Markov chain model. Finally, Markov process prediction gives better performance compare with Regression model.

  5. Prediction of anaerobic power values from an abbreviated WAnT protocol.

    PubMed

    Stickley, Christopher D; Hetzler, Ronald K; Kimura, Iris F

    2008-05-01

    The traditional 30-second Wingate anaerobic test (WAnT) is a widely used anaerobic power assessment protocol. An abbreviated protocol has been shown to decrease the mild to severe physical discomfort often associated with the WAnT. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to determine whether a 20-second WAnT protocol could be used to accurately predict power values of a standard 30-second WAnT. In 96 college females, anaerobic power variables were assessed using a standard 30-second WAnT protocol. Maximum power values as well as instantaneous power at 10, 15, and 20 seconds were recorded. Based on these results, stepwise regression analysis was performed to determine the accuracy with which mean power, minimum power, 30-second power, and percentage of fatigue for a standard 30-second WAnT could be predicted from values obtained during the first 20 seconds of testing. Mean power values showed the highest level of predictability (R2 = 0.99) from the 20-second values. Minimum power, 30-second power, and percentage of fatigue also showed high levels of predictability (R2 = 0.91, 0.84, and 0.84, respectively) using only values obtained during the first 20 seconds of the protocol. An abbreviated (20-second) WAnT protocol appears to effectively predict results of a standard 30-second WAnT in college-age females, allowing for comparison of data to published norms. A shortened test may allow for a decrease in unwanted side effects associated with the traditional WAnT protocol.

  6. Risk factors influencing the early outcome results after laparoscopic repair of perforated duodenal ulcer and their predictive value.

    PubMed

    Lunevicius, Raimundas; Morkevicius, Matas

    2005-09-01

    Clear patient selection criteria and indications for laparoscopic repair of perforated duodenal ulcers are necessary. The aims of our study are to report the early outcome results after operation and to define the predictive values of risk factors influencing conversion rate and genesis of suture leakage. Sixty nonrandomly selected patients operated on laparoscopically in a tertiary care academic center between October 1996 and May 2004 for perforated duodenal ulcers were retrospectively analyzed. The primary outcome measures included the duration of symptoms, shock, underlying medical illness, ulcer size, age, Boey score, and the collective predictive value of these variables for conversion and suture leakage rates. Laparoscopic repair was completed in 46 patients (76.7%). Fourteen patients (23.3%) underwent conversion to open repair. Eight patients (13.3%) had postoperative complications. Suture leakage was confirmed in four patients (6.7%). Hospital stay was 7.8+/-5.3 days. There was no mortality. Patients with an ulcer perforation size of >8 mm had a significantly increased risk for conversion to open repair (p<0.05): positive predictive value (PPV) 75%, sensitivity 27%, specificity 98%, and negative predictive value (NPV) 85%. The significance of ulcer perforation size was confirmed by a stepwise logistic regression test (p=0.0201). All patients who developed suture leakage had acute symptoms for >9 h preoperatively (p<0.001): PPV 31%, specificity 84%, sensitivity 100%, and NPV 100%. Conversions happened with surgeons whose previous experience involved 1.8+/-2.3 cases compared to 3.9+/-2.9 cases in successful laparoscopic repair (p=0.039, t test). Ulcer perforation size of >8 mm is a significant risk factor influencing the conversion rate. An increase in the suture leakage rate is predicted by delayed presentation of >9 h.

  7. Predictive value of IL-35 and IL-17 in diagnosis of childhood asthma.

    PubMed

    Mansour, Amira Ibrahim; Abd Almonaem, Eman Rateb; Behairy, Ola Galal; Gouda, Tahany Mahmoud

    2017-09-01

    This study aimed to evaluate the correlation between serum levels of IL-17 and IL-35 and the presence and severity of childhood asthma. The study was performed on 60 diagnosed asthmatic children, who were further classified into four groups according to the Global Initiative for Asthma Guidelines for Asthma Severity and Control (GINA) 2016, plus 30 age- and sex-matched apparently healthy children. All participants were subjected to full medical history, clinical examination, pulmonary function tests and laboratory evaluation in the form of complete blood count (CBC), serum total IgE, IL-17 and IL-35 by ELISA. Our results revealed that eosinophils count, IgE and IL-17 were significantly higher in the asthmatic group than the control group (p < .001), while IL-35 levels were significantly lower in asthmatics than control (p < .001). A strong negative correlation was found between serum IL-17 and serum IL-35; a positive correlation was found between serum IL-17 and both of serum total IgE and eosinophils counts in atopic asthmatic patients, and serum IL-35 showed significant negative correlations with both. ROC analysis of the data showed that the cut-off value of IL-35 level was <189.5 pg/mL and for IL-17 level, it was >13.1 pg/mL; this value could predict childhood asthma with sensitivity of 81.7% and 83.3%, and specificity of 76.7% and 70%, respectively. A combination of both cytokines yielded an increase in sensitivity to 95%. In conclusion, in the current study, IL-17 is upregulated while IL-35 is downregulated in childhood asthma with a significant negative correlation between both. These results suggest that both may play an important role in the pathogenesis of childhood asthma.

  8. A culture-brain link: Negative age stereotypes predict Alzheimer's disease biomarkers.

    PubMed

    Levy, Becca R; Ferrucci, Luigi; Zonderman, Alan B; Slade, Martin D; Troncoso, Juan; Resnick, Susan M

    2016-02-01

    Although negative age stereotypes have been found to predict adverse outcomes among older individuals, it was unknown whether the influence of stereotypes extends to brain changes associated with Alzheimer's disease. To consider this possibility, we drew on dementia-free participants, in the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging, whose age stereotypes were assessed decades before yearly magnetic resonance images and brain autopsies were performed. Those holding more-negative age stereotypes earlier in life had significantly steeper hippocampal-volume loss and significantly greater accumulation of neurofibrillary tangles and amyloid plaques, adjusting for relevant covariates. These findings suggest a new pathway to identifying mechanisms and potential interventions related to the pathology of Alzheimer's disease. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  9. Chronic and Daily Stressors Along With Negative Affect Interact to Predict Daily Tiredness.

    PubMed

    Hartsell, Elizabeth N; Neupert, Shevaun D

    2017-11-01

    The present study examines the within-person relationship of daily stressors and tiredness and whether this depends on daily negative affect and individual differences in chronic stress. One hundred sixteen older adult participants were recruited via Amazon's Mechanical Turk for a 9-day daily diary study. Daily tiredness, daily stressors, and negative affect were measured each day, and chronic stress was measured at baseline. Daily stressors, daily negative affect, and chronic stress interacted to predict daily tiredness. People with high chronic stress who experienced an increase in daily negative affect were the most reactive to daily stressors in terms of experiencing an increase in daily tiredness. We also found that people with low levels of chronic stress were the most reactive to daily stressors when they experienced low levels of daily negative affect. Our results highlight the need for individualized and contextualized approaches to combating daily tiredness in older adults.

  10. Predictive value of plasma β2-microglobulin on human body function and senescence.

    PubMed

    Dong, X-M; Cai, R; Yang, F; Zhang, Y-Y; Wang, X-G; Fu, S-L; Zhang, J-R

    2016-06-01

    To explore the correlation between plasma β2-microglobulin (β2-MG) as senescence factor with age, heart, liver and kidney function as well as the predictive value of β2-MG in human metabolism function and senescence. 387 cases of healthy people of different ages were selected and the automatic biochemical analyzer was used to test β2-MG in plasma based on immunoturbidimetry and also all biochemical indexes. The correlation between β2-MG and age, gender and all biochemical indexes was analyzed. β2-MG was positively correlated to age, r = 0.373; and the difference was of statistical significance (p < 0.010). It was significantly negative correlated to HDL-C but positively correlated to LP (a), BUN, CREA, UA, CYS-C, LDH, CK-MB, HBDH, AST, GLB and HCY. β2-MG was closely correlated to age, heart, kidney and liver biochemical indexes, which can be taken as an important biomarker for human body function and anti-senescence and have significant basic research and clinical guidance values.

  11. Cardiothoracic ratio for prediction of left ventricular dilation: a systematic review and pooled analysis.

    PubMed

    Loomba, Rohit S; Shah, Parinda H; Nijhawan, Karan; Aggarwal, Saurabh; Arora, Rohit

    2015-03-01

    Increased cardiothoracic ratio noted on chest radiographs often prompts concern and further evaluation with additional imaging. This study pools available data assessing the utility of cardiothoracic ratio in predicting left ventricular dilation. A systematic review of the literature was conducted to identify studies comparing cardiothoracic ratio by chest x-ray to left ventricular dilation by echocardiography. Electronic databases were used to identify studies which were then assessed for quality and bias, with those with adequate quality and minimal bias ultimately being included in the pooled analysis. The pooled data were used to determine the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of cardiomegaly in predicting left ventricular dilation. A total of six studies consisting of 466 patients were included in this analysis. Cardiothoracic ratio had 83.3% sensitivity, 45.4% specificity, 43.5% positive predictive value and 82.7% negative predictive value. When a secondary analysis was conducted with a pediatric study excluded, a total of five studies consisting of 371 patients were included. Cardiothoracic ratio had 86.2% sensitivity, 25.2% specificity, 42.5% positive predictive value and 74.0% negative predictive value. Cardiothoracic ratio as determined by chest radiograph is sensitive but not specific for identifying left ventricular dilation. Cardiothoracic ratio also has a strong negative predictive value for identifying left ventricular dilation.

  12. High positive predictive value of Gram stain on catheter-drawn blood samples for the diagnosis of catheter-related bloodstream infection in intensive care neonates.

    PubMed

    Deleers, M; Dodémont, M; Van Overmeire, B; Hennequin, Y; Vermeylen, D; Roisin, S; Denis, O

    2016-04-01

    Catheter-related bloodstream infections (CRBSIs) remain a leading cause of healthcare-associated infections in preterm infants. Rapid and accurate methods for the diagnosis of CRBSIs are needed in order to implement timely and appropriate treatment. A retrospective study was conducted during a 7-year period (2005-2012) in the neonatal intensive care unit of the University Hospital Erasme to assess the value of Gram stain on catheter-drawn blood samples (CDBS) to predict CRBSIs. Both peripheral samples and CDBS were obtained from neonates with clinically suspected CRBSI. Gram stain, automated culture and quantitative cultures on blood agar plates were performed for each sample. The paired quantitative blood culture was used as the standard to define CRBSI. Out of 397 episodes of suspected CRBSIs, 35 were confirmed by a positive ratio of quantitative culture (>5) or a colony count of CDBS culture >100 colony-forming units (CFU)/mL. All but two of the 30 patients who had a CDBS with a positive Gram stain were confirmed as having a CRBSI. Seven patients who had a CDBS with a negative Gram stain were diagnosed as CRBSI. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of Gram stain on CDBS were 80, 99.4, 93.3 and 98.1 %, respectively. Gram staining on CDBS is a viable method for rapidly (<1 h) detecting CRBSI without catheter withdrawal.

  13. Negative predictive value and potential cost savings of acute nuclear myocardial perfusion imaging in low risk patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome: A prospective single blinded study

    PubMed Central

    Forberg, Jakob L; Hilmersson, Catarina E; Carlsson, Marcus; Arheden, Håkan; Björk, Jonas; Hjalte, Krister; Ekelund, Ulf

    2009-01-01

    Background Previous studies from the USA have shown that acute nuclear myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) in low risk emergency department (ED) patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome (ACS) can be of clinical value. The aim of this study was to evaluate the utility and hospital economics of acute MPI in Swedish ED patients with suspected ACS. Methods We included 40 patients (mean age 55 ± 2 years, 50% women) who were admitted from the ED at Lund University Hospital for chest pain suspicious of ACS, and who had a normal or non-ischemic ECG and no previous myocardial infarction. All patients underwent MPI from the ED, and the results were analyzed only after patient discharge. The current diagnostic practice of admitting the included patients for observation and further evaluation was compared to a theoretical "MPI strategy", where patients with a normal MPI test would have been discharged home from the ED. Results Twenty-seven patients had normal MPI results, and none of them had ACS. MPI thus had a negative predictive value for ACS of 100%. With the MPI strategy, 2/3 of the patients would thus have been discharged from the ED, resulting in a reduction of total hospital cost by some 270 EUR and of bed occupancy by 0.8 days per investigated patient. Conclusion Our findings in a Swedish ED support the results of larger American trials that acute MPI has the potential to safely reduce the number of admissions and decrease overall costs for low-risk ED patients with suspected ACS. PMID:19545365

  14. The predictive value of the clinical sign of limited hip abduction for developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH).

    PubMed

    Čustović, Svemir; Šadić, Sahmir; Vujadinović, Aleksandar; Hrustić, Asmir; Jašarević, Mahir; Čustović, Amer; Krupić, Ferid

    2018-08-01

    Aim To assess the relationship between the clinical sign of limited hip abduction and developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH). Methods A research was conducted on 450 newborns at the Neonatal Unit at the Clinic of Gynaecology and Obstetrics and the Orthopaedics and Traumatology Clinic of the University Clinical Centre, Tuzla, between 30th August 2011 and 30th April 2012. Clinical (degree of hip abduction) and ultrasound examination of all newborns' hips were performed using the Graf method on their first day of life. Results Clinical sign of limited hip abduction showed significant predictive value for DDH. There were 67 (14.7%) newborns with the clinical sign of limited hip abduction, of which 26 (5.7%) were on the left hip, 11 (2.4%) on the right hip and 30 (6.6%) on both hips. Limited hip abduction had a positive predictive value (PPV) of 40.3% and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 80.4% for DDH. Conclusion Limited hip abduction, especially unilateral, is a useful and important clinical sign of DDH. Doctors, who perform the first examination of the child after birth, would have to pay attention to this clinical sign. Newborns with this clinical sign would have to go to an ultrasound examination of the hips for further diagnosis. Copyright© by the Medical Assotiation of Zenica-Doboj Canton.

  15. Protein charge ladders reveal that the net charge of ALS-linked superoxide dismutase can be different in sign and magnitude from predicted values

    PubMed Central

    Shi, Yunhua; Abdolvahabi, Alireza; Shaw, Bryan F

    2014-01-01

    This article utilized “protein charge ladders”—chemical derivatives of proteins with similar structure, but systematically altered net charge—to quantify how missense mutations that cause amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) affect the net negative charge (Z) of superoxide dismutase-1 (SOD1) as a function of subcellular pH and Zn2+ stoichiometry. Capillary electrophoresis revealed that the net charge of ALS-variant SOD1 can be different in sign and in magnitude—by up to 7.4 units per dimer at lysosomal pH—than values predicted from standard pKa values of amino acids and formal oxidation states of metal ions. At pH 7.4, the G85R, D90A, and G93R substitutions diminished the net negative charge of dimeric SOD1 by up to +2.29 units more than predicted; E100K lowered net charge by less than predicted. The binding of a single Zn2+ to mutant SOD1 lowered its net charge by an additional +2.33 ± 0.01 to +3.18 ± 0.02 units, however, each protein regulated net charge when binding a second, third, or fourth Zn2+ (ΔZ < 0.44 ± 0.07 per additional Zn2+). Both metalated and apo-SOD1 regulated net charge across subcellular pH, without inverting from negative to positive at the theoretical pI. Differential scanning calorimetry, hydrogen-deuterium exchange, and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry confirmed that the structure, stability, and metal content of mutant proteins were not significantly affected by lysine acetylation. Measured values of net charge should be used when correlating the biophysical properties of a specific ALS-variant SOD1 protein with its observed aggregation propensity or clinical phenotype. PMID:25052939

  16. Predicting liver metastasis of gastrointestinal tract cancer by diffusion-weighted imaging of apparent diffusion coefficient values

    PubMed Central

    Zheng, De-Xian; Meng, Shu-Chun; Liu, Qing-Jun; Li, Chuan-Ting; Shang, Xi-Dan; Zhu, Yu-Seng; Bai, Tian-Jun; Xu, Shi-Ming

    2016-01-01

    AIM: To determine if efficacy of chemotherapy on liver metastasis of gastrointestinal tract cancer can be predicted by apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values of diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI). METHODS: In total, 86 patients with liver metastasis of gastrointestinal tract cancer (156 metastatic lesions) diagnosed in our hospital were included in this study. The maximum diameters of these tumors were compared with each other before treatment, 2 wk after treatment, and 12 wk after treatment. Selected patients were classified as the effective group and the ineffective group, depending on the maximum diameter of the tumor after 12 wk of treatment; and the ADC values at different treatment times between the two groups were compared. Spearman rank correlation was used to analyze the relationship between ADC value and tumor diameter. Receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve) was used to analyze the ADC values before treatment to predict the patient’s sensitivity and specificity degree of efficacy to the chemotherapy. RESULTS: There was no difference in age between the two groups and in maximum tumor diameter before treatment and 2 wk after treatment. However, after 12 wk of treatment, maximum tumor diameter in the effective group was significantly lower than that in the ineffective group (P < 0.05). Before treatment, ADC values in the ineffective group were significantly higher than those in the effective group (P < 0.05). There was no difference in ADC values between the effective and ineffective groups after 2 and 12 wk of treatment. However, ADC values were significantly higher after 2 and 12 wk of treatment compared to before treatment in the effective group (P < 0.05). Spearman rank correlation analysis showed that ADC value before treatment and the reduced percentage of the maximum tumor diameter after 12 wk of treatment were negatively correlated, while the increase in the percentage of the ADC value 12 wk after treatment and the decrease in the

  17. [Predictive value of postural and dynamic walking parameters after high-volume lumbar puncture in normal pressure hydrocephalus].

    PubMed

    Mary, P; Gallisa, J-M; Laroque, S; Bedou, G; Maillard, A; Bousquet, C; Negre, C; Gaillard, N; Dutray, A; Fadat, B; Jurici, S; Olivier, N; Cisse, B; Sablot, D

    2013-04-01

    Normal pressure hydrocephalus (NPH) was described by Adams et al. (1965). The common clinical presentation is the triad: gait disturbance, cognitive decline and urinary incontinence. Although these symptoms are suggestive, they are not specific to diagnosis. The improvement of symptoms after high-volume lumbar puncture (hVLP) could be a strong criterion for diagnosis. We tried to determine a specific pattern of dynamic walking and posture parameters in NPH. Additionally, we tried to specify the evolution of these criteria after hVLP and to determine predictive values of ventriculoperitoneal shunting (VPS) efficiency. Sixty-four patients were followed during seven years from January 2002 to June 2009. We identified three periods: before (S1), after hVLP (S2) and after VPS (S3). The following criteria concerned walking and posture parameters: walking parameters were speed, step length and step rhythm; posture parameters were statokinesigram total length and surface, length according to the surface (LFS), average value of equilibration for lateral movements (Xmoyen), anteroposterior movements (Ymoyen), total movement length in lateral axis (longX) and anteroposterior axis (longY). Among the 64 patients included, 22 had VPS and 16 were investigated in S3. All kinematic criteria are decreased in S1 compared with normal values. hVLP improved these criteria significantly (S2). Among posture parameters, only total length and surface of statokinesigram showed improvement in S1, but no improvement in S2. A gain in speed greater or equal to 0.15m/s between S1 and S2 predicted the efficacy of VPS with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 87.1% and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 69.7% (area under the ROC curve [AUC]: 0.86). Kinematic walking parameters are the most disruptive and are partially improved after hVLP. These parameters could be an interesting test for selecting candidates for VPS. These data have to be confirmed in a larger cohort. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier

  18. The predictive value of selected serum microRNAs for acute GVHD by TaqMan MicroRNA arrays.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Chunyan; Bai, Nan; Huang, Wenrong; Zhang, Pengjun; Luo, Yuan; Men, Shasha; Wen, Ting; Tong, Hongli; Wang, Shuhong; Tian, Ya-Ping

    2016-10-01

    Currently, the diagnosis of acute graft-versus-host disease (aGVHD) is mainly based on clinical symptoms and biopsy results. This study was designed to further explore new no noninvasive biomarkers for aGVHD prediction/diagnosis. We profiled miRNAs in serum pools from patients with aGVHD (grades II-IV) (n = 9) and non-aGVHD controls (n = 9) by real-time qPCR-based TaqMan MicroRNA arrays. Then, predictive models were established using related miRNAs (n = 38) and verified by a double-blind trial (n = 54). We found that miR-411 was significantly down regulated when aGVHD developed and recovered when aGVHD was controlled, which demonstrated that miR-411 has potential as an indicator for aGVHD monitoring. We developed and validated a predictive model and a diagnostic model for aGVHD. The predictive model included two miRNAs (miR-26b and miR-374a), which could predict an increased risk for aGVHD 1 or 2 weeks in advance, with an AUC, Positive Predictive Value (PPV), and Negative Predictive Value (NPV) of 0.722, 76.19 %, and 69.70 %, respectively. The diagnostic model included three miRNAs (miR-28-5p, miR-489, and miR-671-3p) with an AUC, PPV, and NPV of 0.841, 85.71 % and 83.33 %, respectively. Our results show that circulating miRNAs (miR-26b and miR-374a, miR-28-5p, miR-489 and miR-671-3p) may serve as biomarkers for the prediction and diagnosis of grades II-IV aGVHD.

  19. Conceptual beliefs about human values and their implications: human nature beliefs predict value importance, value trade-offs, and responses to value-laden rhetoric.

    PubMed

    Bain, Paul G; Kashima, Yoshihisa; Haslam, Nick

    2006-08-01

    Beliefs that may underlie the importance of human values were investigated in 4 studies, drawing on research that distinguishes natural-kind (natural), nominal-kind (conventional), and artifact (functional) beliefs. Values were best characterized by artifact and nominal-kind beliefs, as well as a natural-kind belief specific to the social domain, "human nature" (Studies 1 and 2). The extent to which values were considered central to human nature was associated with value importance in both Australia and Japan (Study 2), and experimentally manipulating human nature beliefs influenced value importance (Study 3). Beyond their association with importance, human nature beliefs predicted participants' reactions to value trade-offs (Study 1) and to value-laden rhetorical statements (Study 4). Human nature beliefs therefore play a central role in the psychology of values.

  20. A neuronal model of predictive coding accounting for the mismatch negativity.

    PubMed

    Wacongne, Catherine; Changeux, Jean-Pierre; Dehaene, Stanislas

    2012-03-14

    The mismatch negativity (MMN) is thought to index the activation of specialized neural networks for active prediction and deviance detection. However, a detailed neuronal model of the neurobiological mechanisms underlying the MMN is still lacking, and its computational foundations remain debated. We propose here a detailed neuronal model of auditory cortex, based on predictive coding, that accounts for the critical features of MMN. The model is entirely composed of spiking excitatory and inhibitory neurons interconnected in a layered cortical architecture with distinct input, predictive, and prediction error units. A spike-timing dependent learning rule, relying upon NMDA receptor synaptic transmission, allows the network to adjust its internal predictions and use a memory of the recent past inputs to anticipate on future stimuli based on transition statistics. We demonstrate that this simple architecture can account for the major empirical properties of the MMN. These include a frequency-dependent response to rare deviants, a response to unexpected repeats in alternating sequences (ABABAA…), a lack of consideration of the global sequence context, a response to sound omission, and a sensitivity of the MMN to NMDA receptor antagonists. Novel predictions are presented, and a new magnetoencephalography experiment in healthy human subjects is presented that validates our key hypothesis: the MMN results from active cortical prediction rather than passive synaptic habituation.

  1. Feedback-related negativity codes outcome valence, but not outcome expectancy, during reversal learning.

    PubMed

    von Borries, A K L; Verkes, R J; Bulten, B H; Cools, R; de Bruijn, E R A

    2013-12-01

    Optimal behavior depends on the ability to assess the predictive value of events and to adjust behavior accordingly. Outcome processing can be studied by using its electrophysiological signatures--that is, the feedback-related negativity (FRN) and the P300. A prominent reinforcement-learning model predicts an FRN on negative prediction errors, as well as implying a role for the FRN in learning and the adaptation of behavior. However, these predictions have recently been challenged. Notably, studies so far have used tasks in which the outcomes have been contingent on the response. In these paradigms, the need to adapt behavioral responses is present only for negative, not for positive feedback. The goal of the present study was to investigate the effects of positive as well as negative violations of expectancy on FRN amplitudes, without the usual confound of behavioral adjustments. A reversal-learning task was employed in which outcome value and outcome expectancy were orthogonalized; that is, both positive and negative outcomes were equally unexpected. The results revealed a double dissociation, with effects of valence but not expectancy on the FRN and, conversely, effects of expectancy but not valence on the P300. While FRN amplitudes were largest for negative-outcome trials, irrespective of outcome expectancy, P300 amplitudes were largest for unexpected-outcome trials, irrespective of outcome valence. These FRN effects were interpreted to reflect an evaluation along a good-bad dimension, rather than reflecting a negative prediction error or a role in behavioral adaptation. By contrast, the P300 reflects the updating of information relevant for behavior in a changing context.

  2. Monoamine Oxidase A (MAOA) Genotype Predicts Greater Aggression Through Impulsive Reactivity to Negative Affect

    PubMed Central

    Chester, David S.; DeWall, C. Nathan; Derefinko, Karen J.; Estus, Steven; Peters, Jessica R.; Lynam, Donald R.; Jiang, Yang

    2015-01-01

    Low functioning MAOA genotypes have been reliably linked to increased reactive aggression, yet the psychological mechanisms of this effect remain largely unknown. The low functioning MAOA genotype’s established link to diminished inhibition and greater reactivity to conditions of negative affect suggest that negative urgency, the tendency to act impulsively in the context of negative affect, may fill this mediating role. Such MAOA carriers may have higher negative urgency, which may in turn predict greater aggressive responses to provocation. To test these hypotheses, 277 female and male participants were genotyped for an MAOA SNP yet to be linked to aggression (rs1465108), and then reported their negative urgency and past aggressive behavior. We replicated the effect of the low functioning MAOA genotype on heightened aggression, which was mediated by greater negative urgency. These results suggest that disrupted serotonergic systems predispose individuals towards aggressive behavior by increasing impulsive reactivity to negative affect. PMID:25637908

  3. The effect of deviance predictability on mismatch negativity in schizophrenia patients.

    PubMed

    Horacek, Magdalena; Kärgel, Christian; Scherbaum, Norbert; Müller, Bernhard W

    2016-03-23

    Mismatch negativity (MMN) is an electrophysiological index of prediction error processing and recently has been considered an endophenotype marker in schizophrenia. While the prediction error is a core concept in the MMN generation, predictability of deviance occurrence has rarely been assessed in MMN research and in schizophrenia patients. We investigated the MMN to 12% temporally predictable or unpredictable duration decrement deviant stimuli in two runs in 29 healthy controls and 31 schizophrenia patients. We analyzed MMN amplitudes and latencies and its associations with clinical symptoms at electrode Fz. With a stimulus onset asynchronicity of 500 ms in the regular predictable condition, a deviant occurred every 4s while it varied randomly in the unpredictable condition. In the random condition we found diminished MMN amplitudes in patients which normalized in the regular deviance condition, resulting in an analysis of variance main effect of predictability and a predictability x group interaction. Deviance predictability did not affect the MMN of control subjects and we found no relevant results with regard to MMN latencies. Our results indicate that MMN amplitudes in patients normalize to the level of the control subjects in the case of a temporally fixed regular deviant. In schizophrenia patients the detection of deviance is basically intact. However, the temporal uncertainty of deviance occurrence may be of substantial relevance to the highly replicated MMN deficit in schizophrenia patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Predictive models of alcohol use based on attitudes and individual values.

    PubMed

    García del Castillo Rodríguez, José A; López-Sánchez, Carmen; Quiles Soler, M Carmen; García del Castillo-López, Alvaro; Gázquez Pertusa, Mónica; Marzo Campos, Juan Carlos; Inglés, Candido J

    2013-01-01

    Two predictive models are developed in this article: the first is designed to predict people's attitudes to alcoholic drinks, while the second sets out to predict the use of alcohol in relation to selected individual values. University students (N = 1,500) were recruited through stratified sampling based on sex and academic discipline. The questionnaire used obtained information on participants' alcohol use, attitudes and personal values. The results show that the attitudes model correctly classifies 76.3% of cases. Likewise, the model for level of alcohol use correctly classifies 82% of cases. According to our results, we can conclude that there are a series of individual values that influence drinking and attitudes to alcohol use, which therefore provides us with a potentially powerful instrument for developing preventive intervention programs.

  5. Performance of the dipstick screening test as a predictor of negative urine culture.

    PubMed

    Marques, Alexandre Gimenes; Doi, André Mario; Pasternak, Jacyr; Damascena, Márcio Dos Santos; França, Carolina Nunes; Martino, Marinês Dalla Valle

    2017-01-01

    To investigate whether the urine dipstick screening test can be used to predict urine culture results. A retrospective study conducted between January and December 2014 based on data from 8,587 patients with a medical order for urine dipstick test, urine sediment analysis and urine culture. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were determined and ROC curve analysis was performed. The percentage of positive cultures was 17.5%. Nitrite had 28% sensitivity and 99% specificity, with positive and negative predictive values of 89% and 87%, respectively. Leukocyte esterase had 79% sensitivity and 84% specificity, with positive and negative predictive values of 51% and 95%, respectively. The combination of positive nitrite or positive leukocyte esterase tests had 85% sensitivity and 84% specificity, with positive and negative predictive values of 53% and 96%, respectively. Positive urinary sediment (more than ten leukocytes per microliter) had 92% sensitivity and 71% specificity, with positive and negative predictive values of 40% and 98%, respectively. The combination of nitrite positive test and positive urinary sediment had 82% sensitivity and 99% specificity, with positive and negative predictive values of 91% and 98%, respectively. The combination of nitrite or leukocyte esterase positive tests and positive urinary sediment had the highest sensitivity (94%) and specificity (84%), with positive and negative predictive values of 58% and 99%, respectively. Based on ROC curve analysis, the best indicator of positive urine culture was the combination of positives leukocyte esterase or nitrite tests and positive urinary sediment, followed by positives leukocyte and nitrite tests, positive urinary sediment alone, positive leukocyte esterase test alone, positive nitrite test alone and finally association of positives nitrite and urinary sediment (AUC: 0.845, 0.844, 0.817, 0.814, 0.635 and 0.626, respectively). A negative urine culture can be

  6. Relationships among values, achievement orientations, and attitudes in youth sport.

    PubMed

    Lee, Martin J; Whitehead, Jean; Ntoumanis, Nikos; Hatzigeorgiadis, Antonis

    2008-10-01

    This research examines the value-expressive function of attitudes and achievement goal theory in predicting moral attitudes. In Study 1, the Youth Sport Values Questionnaire (YSVQ; Lee, Whitehead, & Balchin, 2000) was modified to measure moral, competence, and status values. In Study 2, structural equation modeling on data from 549 competitors (317 males, 232 females) aged 12-15 years showed that moral and competence values predicted prosocial attitudes, whereas moral (negatively) and status values (positively) predicted antisocial attitudes. Competence and status values predicted task and ego orientation, respectively, and task and ego orientation partially mediated the effect of competence values on prosocial attitudes and of status values on antisocial attitudes, respectively. The role of sport values is discussed, and new research directions are proposed.

  7. Object relations predicts borderline personality disorder symptoms beyond emotional dysregulation, negative affect, and impulsivity.

    PubMed

    Huprich, Steven K; Nelson, Sharon M; Paggeot, Amy; Lengu, Ketrin; Albright, Jeremy

    2017-01-01

    Many studies have determined that the traits of emotional dysregulation, negative affect, and impulsivity are the strongest predictors of borderline personality disorder (BPD). Although psychodynamic, empirically supported BPD treatments (i.e., transference-focused, mentalization based) focus upon changing the internal representations of self and other, no studies have simultaneously evaluated the contribution of object relations in relation to these traits in predicting BPD symptoms. This study sought to determine the combined effects of emotional dysregulation, negative affect, impulsivity, and object relations in the prediction of BPD through the use of mediation modeling in 4 a priori hypothesized relationships among these variables. One hundred sixty-nine psychiatric outpatients and 171 undergraduate students were evaluated with self-reported trait and object relations measures and were administered 2 semistructured diagnostic interviews for BPD. Although all trait and object relations measures were correlated with BPD symptoms, the best fitting model was one in which object relations partially mediated the relationship of negative affect and impulsivity with BPD symptoms. Direct effects of the traits were also observed in mediation. Self-reported object relational quality had more of an effect on the prediction of BPD than previously recognized within a trait-framework, thus further supporting the model explicated in psychodynamic and relationally based treatments for BPD. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  8. Validity, accuracy, and predictive value of urinary tract infection signs and symptoms in individuals with spinal cord injury on intermittent catheterization.

    PubMed

    Massa, Luiz M; Hoffman, Jeanne M; Cardenas, Diana D

    2009-01-01

    To determine the validity, accuracy, and predictive value of the signs and symptoms of urinary tract infection (UTI) for individuals with spinal cord injury (SCI) using intermittent catheterization (IC) and the accuracy of individuals with SCI on IC at predicting their own UTI. Prospective cohort based on data from the first 3 months of a 1-year randomized controlled trial to evaluate UTI prevention effectiveness of hydrophilic and standard catheters. Fifty-six community-based individuals on IC. Presence of UTI as defined as bacteriuria with a colony count of at least 10(5) colony-forming units/mL and at least 1 sign or symptom of UTI. Analysis of monthly urine culture and urinalysis data combined with analysis of monthly data collected using a questionnaire that asked subjects to self-report on UTI signs and symptoms and whether or not they felt they had a UTI. Overall, "cloudy urine" had the highest accuracy (83.1%), and "leukocytes in the urine" had the highest sensitivity (82.8%). The highest specificity was for "fever" (99.0%); however, it had a very low sensitivity (6.9%). Subjects were able to predict their own UTI with an accuracy of 66.2%, and the negative predictive value (82.8%) was substantially higher than the positive predictive value (32.6%). The UTI signs and symptoms can predict a UTI more accurately than individual subjects can by using subjective impressions of their own signs and symptoms. Subjects were better at predicting when they did not have a UTI than when they did have a UTI.

  9. Maternal Sensitivity Predicts Fewer Sleep Problems at Early Adolescence for Toddlers with Negative Emotionality: A Case of Differential Susceptibility.

    PubMed

    Conway, Anne; Modrek, Anahid; Gorroochurn, Prakash

    2018-02-01

    Theory underscores the importance of parenting in sleep development, but few studies have examined whether links vary by temperament. To address this gap, we tested whether potential links between early maternal sensitivity and early adolescent sleep problems varied by child negative emotionality and delay of gratification. Using data from the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development (N = 820), we found that high maternal sensitivity predicted fewer bedtime problems and longer sleep duration at 6th grade for toddlers with high negative emotionality, whereas low maternal sensitivity predicted the reverse. No differences were observed for low negative emotionality. Moreover, delay of gratification predicted fewer bedtime problems at 6th grade, but did not moderate associations between maternal sensitivity, negative emotionality, and sleep. Findings demonstrate that high, but not low, negative emotionality renders toddlers differentially susceptible and receptive to maternal sensitivity in relation to sleep.

  10. Explaining negative refraction without negative refractive indices.

    PubMed

    Talalai, Gregory A; Garner, Timothy J; Weiss, Steven J

    2018-03-01

    Negative refraction through a triangular prism may be explained without assigning a negative refractive index to the prism by using array theory. For the case of a beam incident upon the wedge, the array theory accurately predicts the beam transmission angle through the prism and provides an estimate of the frequency interval at which negative refraction occurs. The hypotenuse of the prism has a staircase shape because it is built of cubic unit cells. The large phase delay imparted by each unit cell, combined with the staircase shape of the hypotenuse, creates the necessary conditions for negative refraction. Full-wave simulations using the finite-difference time-domain method show that array theory accurately predicts the beam transmission angle.

  11. The Predicted Cross Value for Genetic Introgression of Multiple Alleles

    PubMed Central

    Han, Ye; Cameron, John N.; Wang, Lizhi; Beavis, William D.

    2017-01-01

    We consider the plant genetic improvement challenge of introgressing multiple alleles from a homozygous donor to a recipient. First, we frame the project as an algorithmic process that can be mathematically formulated. We then introduce a novel metric for selecting breeding parents that we refer to as the predicted cross value (PCV). Unlike estimated breeding values, which represent predictions of general combining ability, the PCV predicts specific combining ability. The PCV takes estimates of recombination frequencies as an input vector and calculates the probability that a pair of parents will produce a gamete with desirable alleles at all specified loci. We compared the PCV approach with existing estimated-breeding-value approaches in two simulation experiments, in which 7 and 20 desirable alleles were to be introgressed from a donor line into a recipient line. Results suggest that the PCV is more efficient and effective for multi-allelic trait introgression. We also discuss how operations research can be used for other crop genetic improvement projects and suggest several future research directions. PMID:28122824

  12. Microbiology of liver abscesses and the predictive value of abscess gram stain and associated blood cultures.

    PubMed

    Chemaly, Roy F; Hall, Gerri S; Keys, Thomas F; Procop, Gary W

    2003-08-01

    Although rare, pyogenic liver abscesses are potentially fatal. We evaluated the predictive value of Gram stain of liver abscess aspirates and temporally associated blood cultures. Gram stains detected bacteria in 79% of the liver abscesses tested. The sensitivity and specificity of Gram stain of the liver abscesses were 90% and 100% for Gram-positive cocci (GPC) and 52% and 94% for Gram-negative bacilli (GNB). The sensitivities of the blood cultures for any GPC and GNB present in the liver abscess were 30% and 39%, respectively. Although, Gram stains and blood cultures offer incomplete detection of the microbial contents of pyogenic liver abscesses, both tests should always accompany liver abscess cultures.

  13. Duration of untreated psychosis: Impact of the definition of treatment onset on its predictive value over three years of treatment.

    PubMed

    Golay, Philippe; Alameda, Luis; Baumann, Philipp; Elowe, Julien; Progin, Pierre; Polari, Andrea; Conus, Philippe

    2016-06-01

    While reduction of DUP (Duration of Untreated Psychosis) is a key goal in early intervention strategies, the predictive value of DUP on outcome has been questioned. We planned this study in order to explore the impact of three different definition of "treatment initiation" on the predictive value of DUP on outcome in an early psychosis sample. 221 early psychosis patients aged 18-35 were followed-up prospectively over 36 months. DUP was measured using three definitions for treatment onset: Initiation of antipsychotic medication (DUP1); engagement in a specialized programme (DUP2) and combination of engagement in a specialized programme and adherence to medication (DUP3). 10% of patients never reached criteria for DUP3 and therefore were never adequately treated over the 36-month period of care. While DUP1 and DUP2 had a limited predictive value on outcome, DUP3, based on a more restrictive definition for treatment onset, was a better predictor of positive and negative symptoms, as well as functional outcome at 12, 24 and 36 months. Globally, DUP3 explained 2 to 5 times more of the variance than DUP1 and DUP2, with effect sizes falling in the medium range according to Cohen. The limited predictive value of DUP on outcome in previous studies may be linked to problems of definitions that do not take adherence to treatment into account. While they need replication, our results suggest effort to reduce DUP should continue and aim both at early detection and development of engagement strategies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. FDG-PET Response Prediction in Pediatric Hodgkin's Lymphoma: Impact of Metabolically Defined Tumor Volumes and Individualized SUV Measurements on the Positive Predictive Value.

    PubMed

    Hussien, Amr Elsayed M; Furth, Christian; Schönberger, Stefan; Hundsdoerfer, Patrick; Steffen, Ingo G; Amthauer, Holger; Müller, Hans-Wilhelm; Hautzel, Hubertus

    2015-01-28

    In pediatric Hodgkin's lymphoma (pHL) early response-to-therapy prediction is metabolically assessed by (18)F-FDG PET carrying an excellent negative predictive value (NPV) but an impaired positive predictive value (PPV). Aim of this study was to improve the PPV while keeping the optimal NPV. A comparison of different PET data analyses was performed applying individualized standardized uptake values (SUV), PET-derived metabolic tumor volume (MTV) and the product of both parameters, termed total lesion glycolysis (TLG); One-hundred-eight PET datasets (PET1, n = 54; PET2, n = 54) of 54 children were analysed by visual and semi-quantitative means. SUVmax, SUVmean, MTV and TLG were obtained the results of both PETs and the relative change from PET1 to PET2 (Δ in %) were compared for their capability of identifying responders and non-responders using receiver operating characteristics (ROC)-curves. In consideration of individual variations in noise and contrasts levels all parameters were additionally obtained after threshold correction to lean body mass and background; All semi-quantitative SUV estimates obtained at PET2 were significantly superior to the visual PET2 analysis. However, ΔSUVmax revealed the best results (area under the curve, 0.92; p < 0.001; sensitivity 100%; specificity 85.4%; PPV 46.2%; NPV 100%; accuracy, 87.0%) but was not significantly superior to SUVmax-estimation at PET2 and ΔTLGmax. Likewise, the lean body mass and background individualization of the datasets did not impove the results of the ROC analyses; Sophisticated semi-quantitative PET measures in early response assessment of pHL patients do not perform significantly better than the previously proposed ΔSUVmax. All analytical strategies failed to improve the impaired PPV to a clinically acceptable level while preserving the excellent NPV.

  15. Do positive or negative stressful events predict the development of new brain lesions in people with Multiple Sclerosis?

    PubMed Central

    Burns, Michelle Nicole; Nawacki, Ewa; Kwasny, Mary J.; Pelletier, Daniel; Mohr, David C.

    2014-01-01

    Background Stressful life events have long been suspected to contribute to multiple sclerosis (MS) disease activity. The few studies examining the relationship between stressful events and neuroimaging markers have been small and inconsistent. This study examined whether different types of stressful events and perceived stress could predict development of brain lesions. Methods This was a secondary analysis of 121 patients with MS followed for 48 weeks during a randomized controlled trial comparing Stress Management Therapy for MS to a waitlist control. Patients underwent MRI’s every 8 weeks. Monthly, patients completed an interview measure assessing stressful life events, and self-report measures of perceived stress, anxiety, and depressive symptoms, which were used to predict the presence of gadolinium enhancing (Gd+) and T2 lesions on MRI’s 29–62 days later. Participants classified stressful events as positive or negative. Negative events were considered “major” if they involved physical threat or threat to the patient’s family structure, and “moderate” otherwise. Results Positive stressful events predicted decreased risk for subsequent Gd+ lesions in the control group (OR=.53 for each additional positive stressful event, 95% CI=.30–.91) and less risk for new or enlarging T2 lesions regardless of group assignment (OR=.74, 95% CI=.55–.99). Across groups, major negative stressful events predicted Gd+ lesions (OR=1.77, 95% CI=1.18–2.64) and new or enlarging T2 lesions (OR=1.57, 95% CI=1.11–2.23), while moderate negative stressful events, perceived stress, anxiety, and depressive symptoms did not. Conclusions Major negative stressful events predict increased risk for Gd+ and T2 lesions, while positive stressful events predict decreased risk. PMID:23680407

  16. Incorporating geographical factors with artificial neural networks to predict reference values of erythrocyte sedimentation rate

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background The measurement of the Erythrocyte Sedimentation Rate (ESR) value is a standard procedure performed during a typical blood test. In order to formulate a unified standard of establishing reference ESR values, this paper presents a novel prediction model in which local normal ESR values and corresponding geographical factors are used to predict reference ESR values using multi-layer feed-forward artificial neural networks (ANN). Methods and findings Local normal ESR values were obtained from hospital data, while geographical factors that include altitude, sunshine hours, relative humidity, temperature and precipitation were obtained from the National Geographical Data Information Centre in China. The results show that predicted values are statistically in agreement with measured values. Model results exhibit significant agreement between training data and test data. Consequently, the model is used to predict the unseen local reference ESR values. Conclusions Reference ESR values can be established with geographical factors by using artificial intelligence techniques. ANN is an effective method for simulating and predicting reference ESR values because of its ability to model nonlinear and complex relationships. PMID:23497145

  17. Incorporating geographical factors with artificial neural networks to predict reference values of erythrocyte sedimentation rate.

    PubMed

    Yang, Qingsheng; Mwenda, Kevin M; Ge, Miao

    2013-03-12

    The measurement of the Erythrocyte Sedimentation Rate (ESR) value is a standard procedure performed during a typical blood test. In order to formulate a unified standard of establishing reference ESR values, this paper presents a novel prediction model in which local normal ESR values and corresponding geographical factors are used to predict reference ESR values using multi-layer feed-forward artificial neural networks (ANN). Local normal ESR values were obtained from hospital data, while geographical factors that include altitude, sunshine hours, relative humidity, temperature and precipitation were obtained from the National Geographical Data Information Centre in China.The results show that predicted values are statistically in agreement with measured values. Model results exhibit significant agreement between training data and test data. Consequently, the model is used to predict the unseen local reference ESR values. Reference ESR values can be established with geographical factors by using artificial intelligence techniques. ANN is an effective method for simulating and predicting reference ESR values because of its ability to model nonlinear and complex relationships.

  18. Gaze-fixation to happy faces predicts mood repair after a negative mood induction.

    PubMed

    Sanchez, Alvaro; Vazquez, Carmelo; Gomez, Diego; Joormann, Jutta

    2014-02-01

    The present study tested the interplay between mood and attentional deployment by examining attention to positive (i.e., happy faces) and negative (i.e., angry and sad faces) stimuli in response to experimental inductions of sad and happy mood. Participants underwent a negative, neutral, or positive mood induction procedure (MIP) which was followed by an assessment of their attentional deployment to emotional faces using eye-tracking technology. Faces were selected from the Karolinska Directed Emotional Faces (KDEF) database (Lundqvist, Flykt, & Öhman, 1998). In the positive MIP condition, analyses revealed a mood-congruent relation between positive mood and greater attentional deployment to happy faces. In the negative MIP condition, however, analyses revealed a mood-incongruent relation between increased negative mood and greater attentional deployment to happy faces. Furthermore, attentional deployment to happy faces after the negative MIP predicted participants' mood recovery at the end of the experimental session. These results suggest that attentional processing of positive information may play a role in mood repair, which may have important clinical implications. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  19. Confucian Values, Negative Life Events, and Rural Young Suicide with Major Depression in China.

    PubMed

    Jia, Cun-Xian; Zhang, Jie

    2017-11-01

    The aim of this research was to understand the characteristics of rural young suicides with major depression in China and the relationship of these events with Confucian values and negative life events. Our cases were 90 rural suicides with major depression with victims aged 15 to 34 years and living matched controls of the same gender, age (within 3 years), and county of residence. Confucian values appear to be a protective factor for men but a risk factor for women with regard to suicide with major depression. More attention should be paid to Confucian values in suicide prevention efforts.

  20. A Culture-Brain Link: Negative Age Stereotypes Predict Alzheimer’s-disease Biomarkers

    PubMed Central

    Levy, Becca R.; Ferrucci, Luigi; Zonderman, Alan B.; Slade, Martin D.; Troncoso, Juan; Resnick, Susan M.

    2016-01-01

    Although negative age stereotypes have been found to predict adverse outcomes among older individuals, it was unknown whether the influence of stereotypes extends to brain changes associated with Alzheimer’s disease. To consider this possibility, we drew on the age stereotypes of dementia-free participants in the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging that had been measured decades before yearly MRIs and brain autopsies were performed. Those with more negative age stereotypes earlier in life had significantly steeper hippocampal-volume loss, and significantly greater accumulation of neurofibrillary tangles and amyloid plaques at autopsy, adjusting for relevant covariates. These findings suggest a new pathway to identifying mechanisms and potential interventions related to the neuropathology of Alzheimer’s disease. PMID:26641877

  1. The predictive value of methylene blue dye as a single technique in breast cancer sentinel node biopsy: a study from Dharmais Cancer Hospital.

    PubMed

    Brahma, Bayu; Putri, Rizky Ifandriani; Karsono, Ramadhan; Andinata, Bob; Gautama, Walta; Sari, Lenny; Haryono, Samuel J

    2017-02-07

    Axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) has been the standard treatment of breast cancer axillary staging in Indonesia. The limited facilities of radioisotope tracer and isosulfan or patent blue dye (PBD) have been the major obstacles to perform sentinel node biopsy (SNB) in our country. We studied the application of 1% methylene blue dye (MBD) alone for SNB to overcome the problem. This prospective study enrolled 108 patients with suspicious malignant lesions or breast cancer stages I-III. SNB was performed using 2-5 cc of 1% MBD and proceeded with ALND. The histopathology results of sentinel nodes (SNs) were compared with axillary lymph nodes (ALNs) for diagnostic value assessments. There were 96 patients with invasive carcinoma from July 2012 to September 2014 who were included in the final analysis. The median age was 50 (25-69) years, and the median pathological tumor size was 3 cm (1-10). Identification rate of SNs was 91.7%, and the median number of the identified SNs was 2 (1-8). Sentinel node metastasis was found in 53.4% cases and 89.4% of them were macrometastases. The negative predictive value (NPV) of SNs to predict axillary metastasis was 90% (95% CI, 81-99%). There were no anaphylactic reactions, but we found 2 cases with skin necrosis. The application of 1% MBD as a single technique in breast cancer SNB has favorable identification rates and predictive values. It can be used for axillary staging, but nevertheless the technique should be applied with attention to the tumor size and grade to avoid false negative results.

  2. Predict value of adiponectin for coronary atherosclerosis plaques according to computed tomography angiography in an asymptomatic population.

    PubMed

    Gan, Lu; Yang, Li; Yan, Guangtao

    2018-05-25

    The association between serum adiponectin levels and coronary atherosclerosis plaque characteristics in asymptomatic populations is unclear. To examine the predictive value of serum adiponectin levels for coronary high risk plaques as detected by computed tomography angiography (CTA). This was a cross-sectional study. All patients were divided into high risk plaque group and non high risk plaque group. The FRS was calculated for each patient. CTA was performed for each patient. Adiponectin levels were measured by flow fluorescence immunmicrobead assay (FFIA). Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves and multivariate analysis was used to determine the predictive value of adiponectin for high risk plaques. The high risk plaque group showed lower adiponectin levels than non high risk plaque group (median, 7.27 vs. 8.51 μg/ml, P = 0.003). The multivariate analysis showed that age (OR = 2.62, 95%CI: 1.51-4.56, P = 0.001), hyperlipidemia (OR = 1.89, 95%CI: 1.07-3.36, P = 0.029), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) (OR = 0.46, 95%CI: 0.24-0.87, P = 0.02), the ratio of total cholesterol to high-density lipoproteincholesterol (TC/HDL-C) (OR = 0.69, 95%CI: 0.50-0.94, P = 0.02), apolipoprotein B (apoB) (OR = 3.08, 95%CI: 1.50-6.32, P = 0.002), and adiponectin (OR = 0.37, 95%CI: 0.19-0.74, P = 0.005) were independently associated with the presence of high risk plaques. AUC of the multivariate model for high-risk plaques was 0.728 (95%CI: 0.627-0.783). Sensitivity was 74.9%, specificity was 60.2%, the positive predictive value was 65.3%, and the negative predictive value was 70.6%. Decreased adiponectin levels were associated with the presence of high-risk plaques in asymptomatic populations at low to intermediate FRS. Adiponectin can play an important role in plaque screening before coronary CTA. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Predicting quantitative and qualitative values of recreation participation

    Treesearch

    Elwood L., Jr. Shafer; George Moeller

    1971-01-01

    If future recreation consumption and associated intangible values can be predicted, the problem of rapid decision making in recreation-resource management can be reduced, and the problems of implementing those decisions can be anticipated. Management and research responsibilities for meeting recreation demand are discussed, and proved methods for forecasting recreation...

  4. Assessing the predictive value of the American Board of Family Practice In-training Examination.

    PubMed

    Replogle, William H; Johnson, William D

    2004-03-01

    The American Board of Family Practice In-training Examination (ABFP ITE) is a cognitive examination similar in content to the ABFP Certification Examination (CE). The ABFP ITE is widely used in family medicine residency programs. It was originally developed and intended to be used for assessment of groups of residents. Despite lack of empirical support, however, some residency programs are using ABFP ITE scores as individual resident performance indicators. This study's objective was to estimate the positive predictive value of the ABFP ITE for identifying residents at risk for poor performance on the ABFP CE or a subsequent ABFP ITE. We used a normal distribution model for correlated test scores and Monte Carlo simulation to investigate the effect of test reliability (measurement errors) on the positive predictive value of the ABFP ITE. The positive predictive value of the composite score was .72. The positive predictive value of the eight specialty subscales ranged from .26 to .57. Only the composite score of the ABFP ITE has acceptable positive predictive value to be used as part of a comprehension resident evaluation system. The ABFP ITE specialty subscales do not have sufficient positive predictive value or reliability to warrant use as performance indicators.

  5. [Evaluation of performance of five bioinformatics software for the prediction of missense mutations].

    PubMed

    Chen, Qianting; Dai, Congling; Zhang, Qianjun; Du, Juan; Li, Wen

    2016-10-01

    To study the prediction performance evaluation with five kinds of bioinformatics software (SIFT, PolyPhen2, MutationTaster, Provean, MutationAssessor). From own database for genetic mutations collected over the past five years, Chinese literature database, Human Gene Mutation Database, and dbSNP, 121 missense mutations confirmed by functional studies, and 121 missense mutations suspected to be pathogenic by pedigree analysis were used as positive gold standard, while 242 missense mutations with minor allele frequency (MAF)>5% in dominant hereditary diseases were used as negative gold standard. The selected mutations were predicted with the five software. Based on the results, the performance of the five software was evaluated for their sensitivity, specificity, positive predict value, false positive rate, negative predict value, false negative rate, false discovery rate, accuracy, and receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). In terms of sensitivity, negative predictive value and false negative rate, the rank was MutationTaster, PolyPhen2, Provean, SIFT, and MutationAssessor. For specificity and false positive rate, the rank was MutationTaster, Provean, MutationAssessor, SIFT, and PolyPhen2. For positive predict value and false discovery rate, the rank was MutationTaster, Provean, MutationAssessor, PolyPhen2, and SIFT. For area under the ROC curve (AUC) and accuracy, the rank was MutationTaster, Provean, PolyPhen2, MutationAssessor, and SIFT. The prediction performance of software may be different when using different parameters. Among the five software, MutationTaster has the best prediction performance.

  6. Doing Gender for Different Reasons: Why Gender Conformity Positively and Negatively Predicts Self-Esteem

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Good, Jessica J.; Sanchez, Diana T.

    2010-01-01

    Past research has shown that valuing gender conformity is associated with both positive and negative consequences for self-esteem and positive affect. The current research (women, n= 226; men, n= 175) explored these conflicting findings by separating out investing in societal gender ideals from personally valuing one's gender identity ("private…

  7. Sensitivity, specificity and predictive probability values of serum agglutination test titres for the diagnosis of Salmonella Dublin culture-positive bovine abortion and stillbirth.

    PubMed

    Sánchez-Miguel, C; Crilly, J; Grant, J; Mee, J F

    2018-06-01

    The objective of this study was to determine the diagnostic value of maternal serology for the diagnosis of Salmonella Dublin bovine abortion and stillbirth. A retrospective, unmatched, case-control study was carried out using twenty year's data (1989-2009) from bovine foetal submissions to an Irish government veterinary laboratory. Cases (n = 214) were defined as submissions with a S. Dublin culture-positive foetus from a S. Dublin unvaccinated dam where results of maternal S. Dublin serology were available. Controls (n = 415) were defined as submissions where an alternative diagnosis other than S. Dublin was made in a foetus from an S. Dublin unvaccinated dam where the results of maternal S. Dublin serology were available. A logistic regression model was fitted to the data: the dichotomous dependent variable was the S. Dublin foetal culture result, and the independent variables were the maternal serum agglutination test (SAT) titre results. Salmonella serology correctly classified 87% of S. Dublin culture-positive foetuses at a predicted probability threshold of 0.44 (cut-off at which sensitivity and specificity are at a maximum, J = 0.67). The sensitivity of the SAT at the same threshold was 73.8% (95% CI: 67.4%-79.5%), and the specificity was 93.2% (95% CI: 90.3%-95.4%). The positive and negative predictive values were 84.9% (95% CI: 79.3%-88.6%) and 87.3% (95% CI: 83.5%-91.3%), respectively. This study illustrates that the use of predicted probability values, rather than the traditional arbitrary breakpoints of negative, inconclusive and positive, increases the diagnostic value of the maternal SAT. Veterinary laboratory diagnosticians and veterinary practitioners can recover from the test results, information previously categorized, particularly from those results declared to be inconclusive. © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  8. Fronto-temporal connectivity predicts cognitive empathy deficits and experiential negative symptoms in schizophrenia.

    PubMed

    Abram, Samantha V; Wisner, Krista M; Fox, Jaclyn M; Barch, Deanna M; Wang, Lei; Csernansky, John G; MacDonald, Angus W; Smith, Matthew J

    2017-03-01

    Impaired cognitive empathy is a core social cognitive deficit in schizophrenia associated with negative symptoms and social functioning. Cognitive empathy and negative symptoms have also been linked to medial prefrontal and temporal brain networks. While shared behavioral and neural underpinnings are suspected for cognitive empathy and negative symptoms, research is needed to test these hypotheses. In two studies, we evaluated whether resting-state functional connectivity between data-driven networks, or components (referred to as, inter-component connectivity), predicted cognitive empathy and experiential and expressive negative symptoms in schizophrenia subjects. Study 1: We examined associations between cognitive empathy and medial prefrontal and temporal inter-component connectivity at rest using a group-matched schizophrenia and control sample. We then assessed whether inter-component connectivity metrics associated with cognitive empathy were also related to negative symptoms. Study 2: We sought to replicate the connectivity-symptom associations observed in Study 1 using an independent schizophrenia sample. Study 1 results revealed that while the groups did not differ in average inter-component connectivity, a medial-fronto-temporal metric and an orbito-fronto-temporal metric were related to cognitive empathy. Moreover, the medial-fronto-temporal metric was associated with experiential negative symptoms in both schizophrenia samples. These findings support recent models that link social cognition and negative symptoms in schizophrenia. Hum Brain Mapp 38:1111-1124, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  9. Structural features that predict real-value fluctuations of globular proteins.

    PubMed

    Jamroz, Michal; Kolinski, Andrzej; Kihara, Daisuke

    2012-05-01

    It is crucial to consider dynamics for understanding the biological function of proteins. We used a large number of molecular dynamics (MD) trajectories of nonhomologous proteins as references and examined static structural features of proteins that are most relevant to fluctuations. We examined correlation of individual structural features with fluctuations and further investigated effective combinations of features for predicting the real value of residue fluctuations using the support vector regression (SVR). It was found that some structural features have higher correlation than crystallographic B-factors with fluctuations observed in MD trajectories. Moreover, SVR that uses combinations of static structural features showed accurate prediction of fluctuations with an average Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.669 and a root mean square error of 1.04 Å. This correlation coefficient is higher than the one observed in predictions by the Gaussian network model (GNM). An advantage of the developed method over the GNMs is that the former predicts the real value of fluctuation. The results help improve our understanding of relationships between protein structure and fluctuation. Furthermore, the developed method provides a convienient practial way to predict fluctuations of proteins using easily computed static structural features of proteins. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  10. Structural features that predict real-value fluctuations of globular proteins

    PubMed Central

    Jamroz, Michal; Kolinski, Andrzej; Kihara, Daisuke

    2012-01-01

    It is crucial to consider dynamics for understanding the biological function of proteins. We used a large number of molecular dynamics trajectories of non-homologous proteins as references and examined static structural features of proteins that are most relevant to fluctuations. We examined correlation of individual structural features with fluctuations and further investigated effective combinations of features for predicting the real-value of residue fluctuations using the support vector regression. It was found that some structural features have higher correlation than crystallographic B-factors with fluctuations observed in molecular dynamics trajectories. Moreover, support vector regression that uses combinations of static structural features showed accurate prediction of fluctuations with an average Pearson’s correlation coefficient of 0.669 and a root mean square error of 1.04 Å. This correlation coefficient is higher than the one observed for the prediction by the Gaussian network model. An advantage of the developed method over the Gaussian network models is that the former predicts the real-value of fluctuation. The results help improve our understanding of relationships between protein structure and fluctuation. Furthermore, the developed method provides a convienient practial way to predict fluctuations of proteins using easily computed static structural features of proteins. PMID:22328193

  11. The Predictive Value of Coefficient of PCT × BG for Anastomotic Leak in Esophageal Carcinoma Patients With ARDS After Esophagectomy.

    PubMed

    Li, Huan; Wang, Daofeng; Wei, Wenxiao; Ouyang, Lamei; Lou, Ning

    2017-01-01

    Anastomotic leak was a potentially severe life-threatening complication of esophagectomy, which drew attention in consequence of progressive dyspnea until acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) due to the early asymptomatic presentation. Respiratory failure, caused by ARDS as the severe presentation of anastomotic leak, is the most common organ failure. CRP (C-reactive protein), procalcitonin (PCT), and Blood G (BG) test are the sensitivity markers for inflammatory, sepsis, and fungemia, respectively. Early recognition and intervention treatment of anastomotic leak may alleviate complication and improve outcome. We retrospectively analyzed 71 patients, accepting mechanical ventilation support because of ARDS as the complication after radical resection of esophagus cancer. Clinical data were collected from the patients' electronic medical records, including their clinically hematological examination, drainage fluid cultures, and sputum culture. Accord to appearance of anastomotic leak or not, all patients were divided into 2 groups, leak group and no-leak group. Inflammatory markers, such as CRP, PCT, and the coefficient of BG and PCT, were significantly different between the 2 groups. Respiratory index, white blood cell, hemoglobin (HBG), platelet (PLT), and other clinical factors were not significantly different between the 2 groups. Receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed to calculate the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and area under the curve for various cutoff levels of several factors. Blood G tests presented the better predicting value for anastomotic leak. Blood G tests and PCT should be tested after esophagectomy. The coefficient of PCT and BG (>260) is of great significance, and clinical value to predict anastomotic leak for patients with postesophagectomy ARDS, early PCT and BG test, and especially, dynamic variation may alleviate complication and improve outcome.

  12. Determinants of work ability and its predictive value for disability.

    PubMed

    Alavinia, S M; de Boer, A G E M; van Duivenbooden, J C; Frings-Dresen, M H W; Burdorf, A

    2009-01-01

    Maintaining the ability of workers to cope with physical and psychosocial demands at work becomes increasingly important in prolonging working life. To analyse the effects of work-related factors and individual characteristics on work ability and to determine the predictive value of work ability on receiving a work-related disability pension. A longitudinal study was conducted among 850 construction workers aged 40 years and older, with average follow-up period of 23 months. Disability was defined as receiving a disability pension, granted to workers unable to continue working in their regular job. Work ability was assessed using the work ability index (WAI). Associations between work-related factors and individual characteristics with work ability at baseline were evaluated using linear regression analysis, and Cox regression analysis was used to evaluate the predictive value of work ability for disability. Work-related factors were associated with a lower work ability at baseline, but had little prognostic value for disability during follow-up. The hazard ratios for disability among workers with a moderate and poor work ability at baseline were 8 and 32, respectively. All separate scales in the WAI had predictive power for future disability with the highest influence of current work ability in relation to job demands and lowest influence of diseases diagnosed by a physician. A moderate or poor work ability was highly predictive for receiving a disability pension. Preventive measures should facilitate a good balance between work performance and health in order to prevent quitting labour participation.

  13. A comparison between the clinical significance and growth mixture modelling early change methods at predicting negative outcomes.

    PubMed

    Flood, Nicola; Page, Andrew; Hooke, Geoff

    2018-05-03

    Routine outcome monitoring benefits treatment by identifying potential no change and deterioration. The present study compared two methods of identifying early change and their ability to predict negative outcomes on self-report symptom and wellbeing measures. 1467 voluntary day patients participated in a 10-day group Cognitive Behaviour Therapy (CBT) program and completed the symptom and wellbeing measures daily. Early change, as defined by (a) the clinical significance method and (b) longitudinal modelling, was compared on each measure. Early change, as defined by the simpler clinical significance method, was superior at predicting negative outcomes than longitudinal modelling. The longitudinal modelling method failed to detect a group of deteriorated patients, and agreement between the early change methods and the final unchanged outcome was higher for the clinical significance method. Therapists could use the clinical significance early change method during treatment to alert them of patients at risk for negative outcomes, which in turn could allow therapists to prevent those negative outcomes from occurring.

  14. Colonic polyps: application value of computer-aided detection in computed tomographic colonography.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Hui-Mao; Guo, Wei; Liu, Gui-Feng; An, Dong-Hong; Gao, Shuo-Hui; Sun, Li-Bo; Yang, Hai-Shan

    2011-02-01

    Colonic polyps are frequently encountered in clinics. Computed tomographic colonography (CTC), as a painless and quick detection, has high values in clinics. In this study, we evaluated the application value of computer-aided detection (CAD) in CTC detection of colonic polyps in the Chinese population. CTC was performed with a GE 64-row multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) scanner. Data of 50 CTC patients (39 patients positive for at least one polyp of ≥ 0.5 cm in size and the other 11 patients negative by endoscopic detection) were retrospectively reviewed first without computer-aided detection (CAD) and then with CAD by four radiologists (two were experienced and another two inexperienced) blinded to colonoscopy findings. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy of detected colonic polyps, as well as the areas under the ROC curves (Az value) with and without CAD were calculated. CAD increased the overall sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and accuracy of the colonic polyps detected by experienced and inexperienced readers. The sensitivity in detecting small polyps (5 - 9 mm) with CAD in experienced and inexperienced readers increased from 82% and 44% to 93% and 82%, respectively (P > 0.05 and P < 0.001). With the use of CAD, the overall false positive rate and false negative rate for the detection of polyps by experienced and inexperienced readers decreased in different degrees. Among 13 sessile polyps not detected by CAD, two were ≥ 1.0 cm, eleven were 5 - 9 mm in diameter, and nine were flat-shaped lesions. The application of CAD in combination with CTC can increase the ability to detect colonic polyps, particularly for inexperienced readers. However, CAD is of limited value for the detection of flat polyps.

  15. Positive predictive value of infective endocarditis in the Danish National Patient Registry: a validation study.

    PubMed

    Østergaard, Lauge; Adelborg, Kasper; Sundbøll, Jens; Pedersen, Lars; Loldrup Fosbøl, Emil; Schmidt, Morten

    2018-05-30

    The positive predictive value of an infective endocarditis diagnosis is approximately 80% in the Danish National Patient Registry. However, since infective endocarditis is a heterogeneous disease implying long-term intravenous treatment, we hypothesiszed that the positive predictive value varies by length of hospital stay. A total of 100 patients with first-time infective endocarditis in the Danish National Patient Registry were identified from January 2010 - December 2012 at the University hospital of Aarhus and regional hospitals of Herning and Randers. Medical records were reviewed. We calculated the positive predictive value according to admission length, and separately for patients with a cardiac implantable electronic device and a prosthetic heart valve using the Wilson score method. Among the 92 medical records available for review, the majority of the patients had admission length ⩾2 weeks. The positive predictive value increased with length of admission. In patients with admission length <2 weeks the positive predictive value was 65% while it was 90% for admission length ⩾2 weeks. The positive predictive value was 81% for patients with a cardiac implantable electronic device and 87% for patients with a prosthetic valve. The positive predictive value of the infective endocarditis diagnosis in the Danish National Patient Registry is high for patients with admission length ⩾2 weeks. Using this algorithm, the Danish National Patient Registry provides a valid source for identifying infective endocarditis for research.

  16. Measuring the value of accurate link prediction for network seeding.

    PubMed

    Wei, Yijin; Spencer, Gwen

    2017-01-01

    The influence-maximization literature seeks small sets of individuals whose structural placement in the social network can drive large cascades of behavior. Optimization efforts to find the best seed set often assume perfect knowledge of the network topology. Unfortunately, social network links are rarely known in an exact way. When do seeding strategies based on less-than-accurate link prediction provide valuable insight? We introduce optimized-against-a-sample ([Formula: see text]) performance to measure the value of optimizing seeding based on a noisy observation of a network. Our computational study investigates [Formula: see text] under several threshold-spread models in synthetic and real-world networks. Our focus is on measuring the value of imprecise link information. The level of investment in link prediction that is strategic appears to depend closely on spread model: in some parameter ranges investments in improving link prediction can pay substantial premiums in cascade size. For other ranges, such investments would be wasted. Several trends were remarkably consistent across topologies.

  17. Negative vacuum energy densities and the causal diamond measure

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Salem, Michael P.

    2009-07-15

    Arguably a major success of the landscape picture is the prediction of a small, nonzero vacuum energy density. The details of this prediction depend in part on how the diverging spacetime volume of the multiverse is regulated, a question that remains unresolved. One proposal, the causal diamond measure, has demonstrated many phenomenological successes, including predicting a distribution of positive vacuum energy densities in good agreement with observation. In the string landscape, however, the vacuum energy density is expected to take positive and negative values. We find the causal diamond measure gives a poor fit to observation in such a landscapemore » - in particular, 99.6% of observers in galaxies seemingly just like ours measure a vacuum energy density smaller than we do, most of them measuring it to be negative.« less

  18. The predictive value of fall assessment tools for patients admitted to hospice care.

    PubMed

    Patrick, Rebecca J; Slobodian, Dana; Debanne, Sara; Huang, Ying; Wellman, Charles

    2017-09-01

    Fall assessment tools are commonly used to evaluate the likelihood of fall. For patients found to be at high risk, patient-specific fall prevention interventions are implemented. The purposes of this study were to describe the population, evaluate and compare the efficacy of fall assessment tools, and suggest the best use for these tools in hospice. Data were downloaded from the electronic medical record for all patients who were admitted to and died in hospice care in 2013. Variables included demographic, clinical and initial fall assessment scores that had been computed on admission to hospice care, using our standard fall assessment tool. To facilitate comparison among three tools, additional fall assessment calculations were made for each patient using the Morse Fall Scale and MACH-10, two tools commonly used in a variety of healthcare settings. Data were available for 3446 hospice patients. Female patients were less likely to fall than males; Fallers lived longer than Nonfallers; and patients with a primary dementia diagnosis fell 10 days sooner than those with a primary non-dementia diagnosis. A comparison of three fall assessment tools revealed that no tool had a good positive predictive value, but each demonstrated a good negative predictive value. Fall assessment scores should not be used as the sole predictor of likelihood of fall, and are best used as a supplement to clinical judgement. Patients with a primary dementia diagnosis are likely to fall earlier in their hospice care than those with other primary diagnoses. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  19. Positive Parenting Interacts with Child Temperament and Negative Parenting to Predict Children’s Socially Appropriate Behavior

    PubMed Central

    Danzig, Allison P.; Dyson, Margaret W.; Olino, Thomas M.; Laptook, Rebecca S.; Klein, Daniel N.

    2017-01-01

    This study examined the effects of parents’ positive and negative affect and behavior while interacting with their preschool child and the moderating role of child temperament in predicting children’s subsequent difficulty with socially appropriate behavior around school-entry. Independent observational measures were used to assess child temperament (dysphoria; exuberance) and parenting at age 3, and multi-informant reports of child socially appropriate behavior were collected at age 6 (N = 219). Hierarchical multiple regression analyses revealed that children’s temperamental dysphoria moderated the relationship between positive parenting and later socially appropriate behavior. High- and low-dysphoric children trended in opposite directions; highly dysphoric children experienced greater difficulty with socially appropriate behavior as levels of positive parenting increased, whereas low-dysphoric children experienced less difficulty with socially appropriate behavior with higher levels of positive parenting. There was also an interaction between positive and negative parenting, whereby the combination of elevated positive and negative parenting predicted children’s later difficulty with socially appropriate behavior. The findings suggest that positive parenting interacts with early child temperament and negative parenting to impact the development of children’s socially appropriate behavior. PMID:28824223

  20. Added value of multiple versus single sessions of repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation in predicting motor cortex stimulation efficacy for refractory neuropathic pain.

    PubMed

    Pommier, Benjamin; Quesada, Charles; Fauchon, Camille; Nuti, Christophe; Vassal, François; Peyron, Roland

    2018-05-18

    OBJECTIVE Selection criteria for offering patients motor cortex stimulation (MCS) for refractory neuropathic pain are a critical topic of research. A single session of repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) has been advocated for selecting MCS candidates, but it has a low negative predictive value. Here the authors investigated whether multiple rTMS sessions would more accurately predict MCS efficacy. METHODS Patients included in this longitudinal study could access MCS after at least four rTMS sessions performed 3-4 weeks apart. The positive (PPV) and negative (NPV) predictive values of the four rTMS sessions and the correlation between the analgesic effects of the two treatments were assessed. RESULTS Twelve MCS patients underwent an average of 15.9 rTMS sessions prior to surgery; nine of the patients were rTMS responders. Postoperative follow-up was 57.8 ± 15.6 months (mean ± standard deviation). Mean percentage of pain relief (%R) was 21% and 40% after the first and fourth rTMS sessions, respectively. The corresponding mean durations of pain relief were respectively 2.4 and 12.9 days. A cumulative effect of the rTMS sessions was observed on both %R and duration of pain relief (p < 0.01). The %R value obtained with MCS was 35% after 6 months and 43% at the last follow-up. Both the PPV and NPV of rTMS were 100% after the fourth rTMS session (p = 0.0045). A significant correlation was found between %R or duration of pain relief after the fourth rTMS session and %R at the last MCS follow-up (R 2 = 0.83, p = 0.0003). CONCLUSIONS Four rTMS sessions predicted MCS efficacy better than a single session in neuropathic pain patients. Taking into account the cumulative effects of rTMS, the authors found a high-level correlation between the analgesic effects of rTMS and MCS.

  1. Predictive value of symptoms and demographics in diagnosing malignancy or peptic stricture

    PubMed Central

    Murray, Iain A; Palmer, Joanne; Waters, Carolyn; Dalton, Harry R

    2012-01-01

    < 0.0005), progressive symptoms (OR 1.3-2.6: progressive 14.8%, intermittent 9.3%, P < 0.001), with weight loss of ≥ 2 kg (OR 2.5-5.1, weight loss 22.1%, without weight loss 6.4%, P < 0.0005) and without reflux (OR 1.2-2.5, reflux 7.2%, no reflux 15.5%, P < 0.0005). The likelihood of malignancy was greater in those who described true dysphagia (food or drink sticking within 5 s of swallowing than those who did not (15.1% vs 5.2% respectively, P < 0.001). The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the EDS were 98.4%, 9.3%, 11.8% and 98.0% respectively. Three patients with an EDS of 3 (high risk EDS ≥ 3.5) had malignancy. Unlike the original validation cohort, there was no difference in likelihood of malignancy based on level of dysphagia (pharyngeal level dysphagia 11.9% vs mid sternal or lower sternal dysphagia 12.4%). Peptic stricture was statistically more frequent in those with longer duration of symptoms (> 6 mo, OR 1.2-2.9, ≤ 8 wk 9.8%, 8-26 wk 10.6%, > 26 wk 15.7%, P < 0.05) and over 60 s (OR 1.2-3.0, age < 60 years 6.2%, 60-73 years 10.2%, > 73 years 10.6%, P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Malignancy and peptic stricture are frequent findings in those referred with dysphagia. The predictive value for associated features could help determine need for fast track investigation whilst reducing service pressures. PMID:22969199

  2. Negative thermal expansion in TiF3 from the first-principles prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Lei; Yuan, Peng-Fei; Wang, Fei; Sun, Qiang; Liang, Er-Jun; Jia, Yu; Guo, Zheng-Xiao

    2014-08-01

    In negative thermal expansion (NTE) materials, rhombohedral TiF3 as a new member is predicted from first-principles calculation. The NTE behavior of rhombohedral TiF3 occurs at low temperatures. In our work, the NTE mechanism is elaborated in accordance with vibrational modes. It is confirmed that the rigid unit mode (RUM) of internal TiF6 octahedra in low-frequency optical range is most responsible for the NTE properties.

  3. Negative Affective Spillover from Daily Events Predicts Early Response to Cognitive Therapy for Depression

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cohen, Lawrence H.; Gunthert, Kathleen C.; Butler, Andrew C.; Parrish, Brendt P.; Wenze, Susan J.; Beck, Judith S.

    2008-01-01

    This study evaluated the predictive role of depressed outpatients' (N = 62) affective reactivity to daily stressors in their rates of improvement in cognitive therapy (CT). For 1 week before treatment, patients completed nightly electronic diaries that assessed daily stressors and negative affect (NA). The authors used multilevel modeling to…

  4. Childhood negative emotionality predicts biobehavioral dysregulation 15 years later

    PubMed Central

    Hagan, Melissa J.; Luecken, Linda J.; Modecki, Kathryn L.; Sandler, Irwin N.; Wolchik, Sharlene A.

    2016-01-01

    The temperamental trait of negative emotionality (NE) plays an important role in maladaptation among adults experiencing significant life stress. However, the prospective relation between childhood NE and subsequent inter-related behavioral, emotional, and biological dysregulation in later life has not yet been established among children who experience early adversity. Using a longitudinal sample of youth who experienced parental divorce during childhood (N = 160; 53% male; 83% White), we tested the hypothesis that childhood NE would predict physiological, emotional, and behavioral dysregulation 15 years later. NE was assessed by maternal report when youth were between 9-12 years old. Fifteen years later, young adults (mean age = 25.55 years) participated in a psychosocial stress task to assess cortisol reactivity and reported on internalizing symptoms and problematic alcohol use. Structural equation modeling revealed that higher childhood NE predicted significantly greater alcohol use, internalizing symptoms, and total cortisol output during a stress task 15 years later. Importantly, these findings held adjusting for childhood internalizing symptoms. In addition, problematic alcohol use was associated with greater cortisol reactivity and internalizing symptoms. Findings suggest that childhood NE is a critical risk marker for interrelated forms of dysregulation in young adulthood among at-risk youth. PMID:27100364

  5. Predictive value of magnetic resonance for identifying neurovascular compressions in trigeminal neuralgia.

    PubMed

    Ruiz-Juretschke, F; Guzmán-de-Villoria, J G; García-Leal, R; Sañudo, J R

    2017-05-23

    Microvascular decompression (MVD) is accepted as the only aetiological surgical treatment for refractory classic trigeminal neuralgia (TN). There is therefore increasing interest in establishing the diagnostic and prognostic value of identifying neurovascular compressions (NVC) using preoperative high-resolution three-dimensional magnetic resonance (MRI) in patients with classic TN who are candidates for surgery. This observational study includes a series of 74 consecutive patients with classic TN treated with MVD. All patients underwent a preoperative three-dimensional high-resolution MRI with DRIVE sequences to diagnose presence of NVC, as well as the degree, cause, and location of compressions. MRI results were analysed by doctors blinded to surgical findings and subsequently compared to those findings. After a minimum follow-up time of six months, we assessed the surgical outcome and graded it on the Barrow Neurological Institute pain intensity score (BNI score). The prognostic value of the preoperative MRI was estimated using binary logistic regression. Preoperative DRIVE MRI sequences showed a sensitivity of 95% and a specificity of 87%, with a 98% positive predictive value and a 70% negative predictive value. Moreover, Cohen's kappa (CK) indicated a good level of agreement between radiological and surgical findings regarding presence of NVC (CK 0.75), type of compression (CK 0.74) and the site of compression (CK 0.72), with only moderate agreement as to the degree of compression (CK 0.48). After a mean follow-up of 29 months (range 6-100 months), 81% of the patients reported pain control with or without medication (BNI score i-iiiI). Patients with an excellent surgical outcome, i.e. without pain and off medication (BNI score i), made up 66% of the total at the end of follow-up. Univariate analysis using binary logistic regression showed that a diagnosis of NVC on the preoperative MRI was a favorable prognostic factor that significantly increased the odds of

  6. Diagnostic value of contrast-enhanced ultrasound in thyroid nodules with calcification.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Jue; Shang, Xu; Wang, Hua; Xu, Yong-Bo; Gao, Ya; Zhou, Qi

    2015-03-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the diagnostic values of conventional ultrasound and contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) in benign and malignant thyroid nodules with calcification. Conventional ultrasound and CEUS were performed in 122 patients with thyroid nodules with calcification. The thyroid nodules were characterized as benign or malignant by pathological diagnosis. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and diagnostic accordance rate of the two imaging methods were determined. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) was used to assess the diagnostic values of the two imaging methods. In 122 cases of thyroid nodules with calcification, 73 benign nodules and 49 malignant nodules were verified by pathological diagnosis. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and diagnostic accordance rate of conventional ultrasound were 50%, 77%, 59%, 69%, and 66%, respectively, and those of CEUS were 90%, 92%, 88%, 93%, and 91%, respectively. There were significant differences between the two imaging methods. AUCs of conventional ultrasound and CEUS were 0.628 ± 0.052 and 0.908 ± 0.031, suggesting low and high diagnostic values, respectively. CEUS has high diagnostic values, being significantly greater than those of conventional ultrasound, in differential diagnosis of benign and malignant thyroid nodules with calcification. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Taiwan.

  7. Thinking while drinking: Fear of negative evaluation predicts drinking behaviors of students with social anxiety.

    PubMed

    Villarosa-Hurlocker, Margo C; Whitley, Robert B; Capron, Daniel W; Madson, Michael B

    2018-03-01

    College students with social anxiety disorder experience more alcohol-related negative consequences, regardless of the amount of alcohol they consume. Social anxiety refers to psychological distress and physiological arousal in social situations due to an excessive fear of negative evaluation by others. The current study examined within-group differences in alcohol-related negative consequences of students who met or exceeded clinically-indicated social anxiety symptoms. In particular, we tested a sequential mediation model of the cognitive (i.e., fear of negative evaluation) and behavioral (protective behavioral strategies) mechanisms for the link between social anxiety disorder subtypes (i.e., interaction and performance-type) and alcohol-related negative consequences. Participants were 412 traditional-age college student drinkers who met or exceeded the clinically-indicated threshold for social anxiety disorder and completed measures of fear of negative evaluation, protective behavioral strategies (controlled consumption and serious harm reduction), and alcohol-related negative consequences. Fear of negative evaluation and serious harm reduction strategies sequentially accounted for the relationship between interaction social anxiety disorder and alcohol-related negative consequences, such that students with more severe interaction social anxiety symptoms reported more fear of negative evaluation, which was related to more serious harm reduction strategies, which predicted fewer alcohol-related negative consequences. Future directions and implications are discussed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Follow-up of pediatric celiac disease: value of antibodies in predicting mucosal healing, a prospective cohort study.

    PubMed

    Vécsei, Edith; Steinwendner, Stephanie; Kogler, Hubert; Innerhofer, Albina; Hammer, Karin; Haas, Oskar A; Amann, Gabriele; Chott, Andreas; Vogelsang, Harald; Schoenlechner, Regine; Huf, Wolfgang; Vécsei, Andreas

    2014-02-13

    In diagnosing celiac disease (CD), serological tests are highly valuable. However, their role in following up children with CD after prescription of a gluten-free diet is unclear. This study aimed to compare the performance of antibody tests in predicting small-intestinal mucosal status in diagnosis vs. follow-up of pediatric CD. We conducted a prospective cohort study at a tertiary-care center. 148 children underwent esophohagogastroduodenoscopy with biopsies either for symptoms ± positive CD antibodies (group A; n = 95) or following up CD diagnosed ≥ 1 year before study enrollment (group B; n = 53). Using biopsy (Marsh ≥ 2) as the criterion standard, areas under ROC curves (AUCs) and likelihood-ratios were calculated to estimate the performance of antibody tests against tissue transglutaminase (TG2), deamidated gliadin peptide (DGP) and endomysium (EMA). AUCs were higher when tests were used for CD diagnosis vs. follow-up: 1 vs. 0.86 (P = 0.100) for TG2-IgA, 0.85 vs. 0.74 (P = 0.421) for TG2-IgG, 0.97 vs. 0.61 (P = 0.004) for DPG-IgA, and 0.99 vs. 0.88 (P = 0.053) for DPG-IgG, respectively. Empirical power was 85% for the DPG-IgA comparison, and on average 33% (range 13-43) for the non-significant comparisons. Among group B children, 88.7% showed mucosal healing (median 2.2 years after primary diagnosis). Only the negative likelihood-ratio of EMA was low enough (0.097) to effectively rule out persistent mucosal injury. However, out of 12 EMA-positive children with mucosal healing, 9 subsequently turned EMA-negative. Among the CD antibodies examined, negative EMA most reliably predict mucosal healing. In general, however, antibody tests, especially DPG-IgA, are of limited value in predicting the mucosal status in the early years post-diagnosis but may be sufficient after a longer period of time.

  9. Predictive value of impaired evacuation at proctography in diagnosing anismus.

    PubMed

    Halligan, S; Malouf, A; Bartram, C I; Marshall, M; Hollings, N; Kamm, M A

    2001-09-01

    We aimed to determine the positive predictive value of impaired evacuation during evacuation proctography for the subsequent diagnosis of anismus. Thirty-one adults with signs of impaired evacuation (defined as the inability to evacuate two thirds of a 120 mL contrast enema within 30 sec) during evacuation proctography underwent subsequent anorectal physiologic testing for anismus. A physiologic diagnosis of anismus was based on a typical clinical history of the condition combined with impaired rectal balloon expulsion or abnormal surface electromyogram. Twenty-eight (90%) of the 31 patients with impaired proctographic evacuation were found to have anismus at subsequent physiologic testing. Among the 28 were all 10 patients who evacuated no contrast medium and all 11 patients with inadequate pelvic floor descent, giving evacuation proctography a positive predictive value of 90% for the diagnosis of anismus. A prominent puborectal impression was seen in only three subjects during proctography, one of whom subsequently showed no physiologic sign of anismus. Impaired evacuation during evacuation proctography is highly predictive for diagnosis of anismus.

  10. Progress in the prediction of pKa values in proteins

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Alexov, Emil; Mehler, Ernest L.; Baker, Nathan A.

    2011-12-15

    The pKa-cooperative aims to provide a forum for experimental and theoretical researchers interested in protein pKa values and protein electrostatics in general. The first round of the pKa -cooperative, which challenged computational labs to carry out blind predictions against pKas experimentally determined in the laboratory of Bertrand Garcia-Moreno, was completed and results discussed at the Telluride meeting (July 6-10, 2009). This paper serves as an introduction to the reports submitted by the blind prediction participants that will be published in a special issue of PROTEINS: Structure, Function and Bioinformatics. Here we briefly outline existing approaches for pKa calculations, emphasizing methodsmore » that were used by the participants in calculating the blind pKa values in the first round of the cooperative. We then point out some of the difficulties encountered by the participating groups in making their blind predictions, and finally try to provide some insights for future developments aimed at improving the accuracy of pKa calculations.« less

  11. Metacognitive deficits predict future levels of negative symptoms in schizophrenia controlling for neurocognition, affect recognition, and self-expectation of goal attainment.

    PubMed

    Lysaker, Paul H; Kukla, Marina; Dubreucq, Julien; Gumley, Andrew; McLeod, Hamish; Vohs, Jenifer L; Buck, Kelly D; Minor, Kyle S; Luther, Lauren; Leonhardt, Bethany L; Belanger, Elizabeth A; Popolo, Raffaele; Dimaggio, Giancarlo

    2015-10-01

    The recalcitrance of negative symptoms in the face of pharmacologic treatment has spurred interest in understanding the psychological factors that contribute to their formation and persistence. Accordingly, this study investigated whether deficits in metacognition, or the ability to form integrated ideas about oneself, others, and the world, prospectively predicted levels of negative symptoms independent of deficits in neurocognition, affect recognition and defeatist beliefs. Participants were 53 adults with a schizophrenia spectrum disorder. Prior to entry into a rehabilitation program, all participants completed concurrent assessments of metacognition with the Metacognitive Assessment Scale-Abbreviated, negative symptoms with the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale, neurocognition with the MATRICS battery, affect recognition with the Bell Lysaker Emotion Recognition Task, and one form of defeatist beliefs with the Recovery Assessment Scale. Negative symptoms were then reassessed one week, 9weeks, and 17weeks after entry into the program. A mixed effects regression model revealed that after controlling for baseline negative symptoms, a general index of neurocognition, defeatist beliefs and capacity for affect recognition, lower levels of metacognition predicted higher levels of negative symptoms across all subsequent time points. Poorer metacognition was able to predict later levels of elevated negative symptoms even after controlling for initial levels of negative symptoms. Results may suggest that metacognitive deficits are a risk factor for elevated levels of negative symptoms in the future. Clinical implications are also discussed. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  12. The predictive value of quantitative fibronectin testing in combination with cervical length measurement in symptomatic women.

    PubMed

    Bruijn, Merel M C; Kamphuis, Esme I; Hoesli, Irene M; Martinez de Tejada, Begoña; Loccufier, Anne R; Kühnert, Maritta; Helmer, Hanns; Franz, Marie; Porath, Martina M; Oudijk, Martijn A; Jacquemyn, Yves; Schulzke, Sven M; Vetter, Grit; Hoste, Griet; Vis, Jolande Y; Kok, Marjolein; Mol, Ben W J; van Baaren, Gert-Jan

    2016-12-01

    The combination of the qualitative fetal fibronectin test and cervical length measurement has a high negative predictive value for preterm birth within 7 days; however, positive prediction is poor. A new bedside quantitative fetal fibronectin test showed potential additional value over the conventional qualitative test, but there is limited evidence on the combination with cervical length measurement. The purpose of this study was to compare quantitative fetal fibronectin and qualitative fetal fibronectin testing in the prediction of spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days in symptomatic women who undergo cervical length measurement. We performed a European multicenter cohort study in 10 perinatal centers in 5 countries. Women between 24 and 34 weeks of gestation with signs of active labor and intact membranes underwent quantitative fibronectin testing and cervical length measurement. We assessed the risk of preterm birth within 7 days in predefined strata based on fibronectin concentration and cervical length. Of 455 women who were included in the study, 48 women (11%) delivered within 7 days. A combination of cervical length and qualitative fibronectin resulted in the identification of 246 women who were at low risk: 164 women with a cervix between 15 and 30 mm and a negative fibronectin test (<50 ng/mL; preterm birth rate, 2%) and 82 women with a cervix at >30 mm (preterm birth rate, 2%). Use of quantitative fibronectin alone resulted in a predicted risk of preterm birth within 7 days that ranged from 2% in the group with the lowest fibronectin level (<10 ng/mL) to 38% in the group with the highest fibronectin level (>500 ng/mL), with similar accuracy as that of the combination of cervical length and qualitative fibronectin. Combining cervical length and quantitative fibronectin resulted in the identification of an additional 19 women at low risk (preterm birth rate, 5%), using a threshold of 10 ng/mL in women with a cervix at <15 mm, and 6 women at high risk

  13. Demands, values, and burnout

    PubMed Central

    Leiter, Michael P.; Frank, Erica; Matheson, Timothy J.

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVE T o explore the interaction between workload and values congruence (personal values with health care system values) in the context of burnout and physician engagement and to explore the relative importance of these factors by sex, given the distinct work patterns of male and female physicians. DESIGN National mailed survey. SETTING Canada. PARTICIPANTS A random sample of 8100 Canadian physicians (response rate 40%, N = 3213); 2536 responses (from physicians working more than 35 hours per week) were analyzed. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Levels of burnout, values congruence, and workload, by sex, measured by the Maslach Burnout Inventory—General Scale and the Areas of Worklife Scale. RESULTS Results showed a moderate level of burnout among Canadian physicians, with relatively positive scores on exhaustion, average scores on cynicism, and mildly negative scores on professional efficacy. A series of multiple regression analyses confirmed parallel main effect contributions from manageable workload and values congruence. Both workload and values congruence predicted exhaustion and cynicism for men and women (P = .001). Only values congruence provided a significant prediction of professional efficacy for both men and women (P = .001) These predictors interacted for women on all 3 aspects of burnout (exhaustion, cynicism, and diminished efficacy). Howevever, overall levels of the burnout indicators departed only modestly from normative levels. CONCLUSION W orkload and values congruence make distinct contributions to physician burnout. Work overload contributes to predicting exhaustion and cynicism; professional values crises contribute to predicting exhaustion, cynicism, and low professional efficacy. The interaction of values and workload for women in particular has implications for the distinct work-life patterns of male and female physicians. Specifically, the congruence of individual values with values inherent in the health care system appeared to be of greater

  14. Predictive value of cerebrospinal fluid parameters in neonates with intraventricular drainage devices.

    PubMed

    Lenfestey, Robert W; Smith, P Brian; Moody, M Anthony; Clark, Reese H; Cotten, C Michael; Seed, Patrick C; Benjamin, Daniel K

    2007-09-01

    Infection is a common and potentially devastating complication following placement of ventriculoperitoneal (VP) shunts and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) reservoirs in neonates. The goal of this study was to determine the normal ranges for cell count parameters in neonates with VP shunts and CSF reservoirs, as well as to determine the predictive value of CSF parameters as markers of infection. The authors evaluated neonates from 150 different neonatal intensive care units of the Pediatrix Medical Group who had undergone a lumbar puncture, VP shunt insertion, or CSF reservoir placement between 1997 and 2004. Data were collected from 9704 neonates with a mean birthweight of 2573 g and a mean gestational age of 35 weeks. Of these neonates, 181 had VP shunt insertions or CSF reservoir placements. In neonates with negative CSF cultures, significant differences were found between those with and without VP shunts or CSF reservoirs when comparing red blood cell (RBC) count (620/mm' compared with 155/mm3, p < 0.05), absolute eosinophil count (4/mm3 compared with 2/mm3, p < 0.001), protein levels (179 mg/dl compared with 115 mg/dl, p < 0.001), and glucose levels (27.5 mg/dl compared with 49 mg/dl, p < 0.001). No significant difference was found between white blood cell (WBC) counts in neonates with or without VP shunts who had negative CSF cultures. The sensitivity and specificity of a cutoff value of 20 WBCs/mm3 for diagnosing meningitis in neonates with positive cultures and intraventricular drainage devices were 67% and 62%, respectively. Although differences exist between CSF parameters found in neonates with or without VP shunts or CSF reservoirs, only the difference in RBC count is large enough to be clinically significant. The authors found that the utility of CSF parameters in neonates with VP shunts or CSF reservoirs was limited due to poor diagnostic sensitivity and specificity.

  15. Sensitivity, Specificity, and Predictive Values: Foundations, Pliabilities, and Pitfalls in Research and Practice.

    PubMed

    Trevethan, Robert

    2017-01-01

    Within the context of screening tests, it is important to avoid misconceptions about sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values. In this article, therefore, foundations are first established concerning these metrics along with the first of several aspects of pliability that should be recognized in relation to those metrics. Clarification is then provided about the definitions of sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values and why researchers and clinicians can misunderstand and misrepresent them. Arguments are made that sensitivity and specificity should usually be applied only in the context of describing a screening test's attributes relative to a reference standard; that predictive values are more appropriate and informative in actual screening contexts, but that sensitivity and specificity can be used for screening decisions about individual people if they are extremely high; that predictive values need not always be high and might be used to advantage by adjusting the sensitivity and specificity of screening tests; that, in screening contexts, researchers should provide information about all four metrics and how they were derived; and that, where necessary, consumers of health research should have the skills to interpret those metrics effectively for maximum benefit to clients and the healthcare system.

  16. Sensitivity, Specificity, and Predictive Values: Foundations, Pliabilities, and Pitfalls in Research and Practice

    PubMed Central

    Trevethan, Robert

    2017-01-01

    Within the context of screening tests, it is important to avoid misconceptions about sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values. In this article, therefore, foundations are first established concerning these metrics along with the first of several aspects of pliability that should be recognized in relation to those metrics. Clarification is then provided about the definitions of sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values and why researchers and clinicians can misunderstand and misrepresent them. Arguments are made that sensitivity and specificity should usually be applied only in the context of describing a screening test’s attributes relative to a reference standard; that predictive values are more appropriate and informative in actual screening contexts, but that sensitivity and specificity can be used for screening decisions about individual people if they are extremely high; that predictive values need not always be high and might be used to advantage by adjusting the sensitivity and specificity of screening tests; that, in screening contexts, researchers should provide information about all four metrics and how they were derived; and that, where necessary, consumers of health research should have the skills to interpret those metrics effectively for maximum benefit to clients and the healthcare system. PMID:29209603

  17. Intratumor heterogeneity predicts metastasis of triple-negative breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Yang, Fang; Wang, Yucai; Li, Quan; Cao, Lulu; Sun, Zijia; Jin, Juan; Fang, Hehui; Zhu, Aiyu; Li, Yan; Zhang, Wenwen; Wang, Yanru; Xie, Hui; Gustafsson, Jan-Åke; Wang, Shui; Guan, Xiaoxiang

    2017-09-01

    Even with the identical clinicopathological features, the ability for metastasis is vastly different among triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) patients. Intratumor heterogeneity (ITH), which is common in breast cancer, may be a key mechanism leading to the tumor progression. In this study, we studied whether a quantitative genetic definition of ITH can predict clinical outcomes in patients with TNBC. We quantified ITH by calculating Shannon index, a measure of diversity in a population, based on Myc, epidermal growth factor receptor/centromeric probe 7 (EGFR/CEP7) and cyclin D1/centromeric probe 11 (CCND1/CEP11) copy number variations (CNVs) in 300 cells at three different locations of a tumor. Among 75 TNBC patients, those who developed metastasis had significantly higher ITH, that is Shannon indices of EGFR/CEP7 and CCND1/CEP11 CNVs. Higher Shannon indices of EGFR/CEP7 and CCND1/CEP11 CNVs were significantly associated with the development of metastasis and were predictive of significantly worse metastasis-free survival (MFS). Regional heterogeneity, defined as the difference in copy numbers of Myc, EGFR or CCND1 at different locations, was found in 52 patients. However, the presence of regional heterogeneity did not correlate with metastasis or MFS. Our findings demonstrate that higher ITH of EGFR/CEP7 and CCND1/CEP11 CNVs is predictive of metastasis and is associated with significantly worse MFS in TNBC patients, suggesting that ITH is a very promising novel prognostic factor in TNBC. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  18. Predicting Changes in Depressive Symptoms from Pregnancy to Postpartum: The Role of Brooding Rumination and Negative Inferential Styles

    PubMed Central

    Barnum, Sarah E.; Woody, Mary L.; Gibb, Brandon E.

    2014-01-01

    The current study examined the role of cognitive factors in the development and maintenance of depressive symptoms from pregnancy into the postpartum period. One hundred and one women were assessed for levels of rumination (brooding and reflection), negative inferential styles, and depressive symptoms in their third trimester of pregnancy and depressive symptom levels again at four and eight weeks postpartum. We found that, although none of the three cognitive variables predicted women’s initial depressive reactions following childbirth (from pregnancy to one month postpartum), brooding rumination and negative inferential styles predicted longer-term depressive symptom changes (from pregnancy to two months postpartum). However, the predictive validity of women’s negative inferential styles was limited to women already exhibiting relatively high depressive symptom levels during pregnancy, suggesting that it was more strongly related to the maintenance of depressive symptoms into the postpartum period rather than increases in depressive symptoms following childbirth. Modifying cognitive risk factors, therefore, may be an important focus of intervention for depression during pregnancy. PMID:25401383

  19. Early Negative Affect Predicts Anxiety, not Autism, in Preschool Boys with Fragile X Syndrome

    PubMed Central

    Tonnsen, Bridgette L.; Malone, Patrick S.; Hatton, Deborah D.

    2012-01-01

    Children with fragile X syndrome (FXS) face high risk for anxiety disorders, yet no studies have explored FXS as a high-risk sample for investigating early manifestations of anxiety outcomes. Negative affect is one of the most salient predictors of problem behaviors and has been associated with both anxiety and autistic outcomes in clinical and non-clinical pediatric samples. In light of the high comorbidity between autism and anxiety within FXS, the present study investigates the relationship between longitudinal trajectories of negative affect (between 8 and 71 months) and severity of anxiety and autistic outcomes in young males with FXS (n= 25). Multilevel models indicated associations between elevated anxiety and higher fear and sadness, lower soothability, and steeper longitudinal increases in approach. Autistic outcomes were unrelated to negative affect. These findings suggest early negative affect differentially predicts anxiety, not autistic symptoms, within FXS. Future research is warranted to determine the specificity of the relationship between negative affect and anxiety, as well as to explore potential moderators. Characterizing the relationship between early negative affect and anxiety within FXS may inform etiology and treatment considerations specific to children with FXS, as well as lend insight into precursors of anxiety disorders in other clinical groups and community samples. PMID:23011214

  20. Diagnostic value and cost utility analysis for urine Gram stain and urine microscopic examination as screening tests for urinary tract infection.

    PubMed

    Wiwanitkit, Viroj; Udomsantisuk, Nibhond; Boonchalermvichian, Chaiyaporn

    2005-06-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic properties of urine Gram stain and urine microscopic examination for screening for urinary tract infection (UTI), and to perform an additional cost utility analysis. This descriptive study was performed on 95 urine samples sent for urine culture to the Department of Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, Chulalongkorn University. The first part of the study was to determine the diagnostic properties of two screening tests (urine Gram stain and urine microscopic examination). Urine culture was set as the gold standard and the results from both methods were compared to this. The second part of this study was to perform a cost utility analysis. The sensitivity of urine Gram stain was 96.2%, the specificity 93.0%, the positive predictive value 94.3% and the negative predictive value 95.2%. False positives occurred with a frequency of 7.0% and false negatives 3.8%. For the microscopic examination, the sensitivity was 65.4%, specificity 74.4%, positive predictive value 75.6% and negative predictive value 64.0%. False positives occurred with a frequency of 25.6% and false negatives 34.6%. Combining urine Gram stain and urine microscopic examination, the sensitivity was 98.1%, specificity 74.4%, positive predictive value 82.3% and negative predictive value 97.0%. False positives occurred with a frequency of 25.6% and false negatives 1.9%. However, the cost per utility of the combined method was higher than either urine microscopic examination or urine Gram stain alone. Urine Gram stain provided the lowest cost per utility. Economically, urine Gram stain is the proper screening tool for presumptive diagnosis of UTI.

  1. Sensitivity and specificity of subacute computerized neurocognitive testing and symptom evaluation in predicting outcomes after sports-related concussion.

    PubMed

    Lau, Brian C; Collins, Michael W; Lovell, Mark R

    2011-06-01

    Concussions affect an estimated 136 000 high school athletes yearly. Computerized neurocognitive testing has been shown to be appropriately sensitive and specific in diagnosing concussions, but no studies have assessed its utility to predict length of recovery. Determining prognosis during subacute recovery after sports concussion will help clinicians more confidently address return-to-play and academic decisions. To quantify the prognostic ability of computerized neurocognitive testing in combination with symptoms during the subacute recovery phase from sports-related concussion. Cohort study (prognosis); Level of evidence, 2. In sum, 108 male high school football athletes completed a computer-based neurocognitive test battery within 2.23 days of injury and were followed until returned to play as set by international guidelines. Athletes were grouped into protracted recovery (>14 days; n = 50) or short-recovery (≤14 days; n = 58). Separate discriminant function analyses were performed using total symptom score on Post-Concussion Symptom Scale, symptom clusters (migraine, cognitive, sleep, neuropsychiatric), and Immediate Postconcussion Assessment and Cognitive Testing neurocognitive scores (verbal memory, visual memory, reaction time, processing speed). Multiple discriminant function analyses revealed that the combination of 4 symptom clusters and 4 neurocognitive composite scores had the highest sensitivity (65.22%), specificity (80.36%), positive predictive value (73.17%), and negative predictive value (73.80%) in predicting protracted recovery. Discriminant function analyses of total symptoms on the Post-Concussion Symptom Scale alone had a sensitivity of 40.81%; specificity, 79.31%; positive predictive value, 62.50%; and negative predictive value, 61.33%. The 4 symptom clusters alone discriminant function analyses had a sensitivity of 46.94%; specificity, 77.20%; positive predictive value, 63.90%; and negative predictive value, 62.86%. Discriminant function

  2. A prediction tool for nosocomial multi-drug Resistant Gram-Negative Bacilli infections in critically ill patients - prospective observational study.

    PubMed

    Vasudevan, Anupama; Mukhopadhyay, Amartya; Li, Jialiang; Yuen, Eugene Goh Yu; Tambyah, Paul Ananth

    2014-11-25

    The widespread use of empiric broad spectrum antibiotics has contributed to the global increase of Resistant Gram-Negative Bacilli (RGNB) infections in intensive care units (ICU). The aim of this study was to develop a tool to predict nosocomial RGNB infections among ICU patients for targeted therapy. We conducted a prospective observational study from August'07 to December'11. All adult patients who were admitted and stayed for more than 24 hours at the medical and surgical ICU's were included. All patients who developed nosocomial RGNB infections 48 hours after ICU admission were identified. A prediction score was formulated by using independent risk factors obtained from logistic regression analysis. This was prospectively validated with a subsequent cohort of patients admitted to the ICUs during the following time period of January-September 2012. Seventy-six patients with nosocomial RGNB Infection (31bacteremia) were compared with 1398 patients with Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) without any gram negative bacterial infection/colonization admitted to the ICUs during the study period. The following independent risk factors were obtained by a multivariable logistic regression analysis - prior isolation of Gram negative organism (coeff: 1.1, 95% CI 0.5-1.7); Surgery during current admission (coeff: 0.69, 95% CI 0.2-1.2); prior Dialysis with end stage renal disease (coeff: 0.7, 95% CI 0.1-1.1); prior use of Carbapenems (coeff: 1.3, 95% CI 0.3-2.3) and Stay in the ICU for more than 5 days (coeff: 2.4, 95% CI 1.6-3.2). It was validated prospectively in a subsequent cohort (n = 408) and the area-under-the-curve (AUC) of the GSDCS score for predicting nosocomial ICU acquired RGNB infection and bacteremia was 0.77 (95% CI 0.68-0.89 and 0.78 (95% CI 0.69-0.89) respectively. The GSDCS (0-4.3) score clearly differentiated the low (0-1.3), medium (1.4-2.3) and high (2.4-4.3) risk patients, both for RGNB infection (p:0.003) and bacteremia (p:0

  3. The value of a registry negative urine pregnancy test for the prediction of a future unintended pregnancy among young women.

    PubMed

    Rottenstreich, Misgav; Grisaru-Granovsky, Sorina; Rottenstreich, Amihai

    2018-06-01

    Performance of urine pregnancy test in general adolescents' clinic reflects caregiver or woman's concern that there might be a pregnancy. We aimed to assess whether young-unmarried women in whom a negative urine pregnancy test was registered would be at increased risk of a future unintended pregnancy. The study cohort included consecutive women drafted by the Israeli military between 2013 and 2015. The risk of unintended pregnancy was compared between women with a negative urine pregnancy test (n = 2774), the study group, and those in whom urine pregnancy test was not carried out (n = 126,659), the control group. During the study period, 2147 (1.7%) women experienced an unintended pregnancy. The risk of unintended pregnancy was significantly higher in patients in whom a past pregnancy test was negative 4.3% (n = 118), as compared with the control group 1.6% (n = 2028) (odds ratio [OR], 2.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.23-3.26). In multivariate analysis history of a negative pregnancy test results was an independent predictor for a future unintended pregnancy (adjusted OR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.63-2.52). A history of a negative pregnancy test among young conscripted women is a significant risk indicator for a future unintended pregnancy. Directed efforts should be made in this particular vulnerable group of patients.

  4. Methods of developing core collections based on the predicted genotypic value of rice ( Oryza sativa L.).

    PubMed

    Li, C T; Shi, C H; Wu, J G; Xu, H M; Zhang, H Z; Ren, Y L

    2004-04-01

    The selection of an appropriate sampling strategy and a clustering method is important in the construction of core collections based on predicted genotypic values in order to retain the greatest degree of genetic diversity of the initial collection. In this study, methods of developing rice core collections were evaluated based on the predicted genotypic values for 992 rice varieties with 13 quantitative traits. The genotypic values of the traits were predicted by the adjusted unbiased prediction (AUP) method. Based on the predicted genotypic values, Mahalanobis distances were calculated and employed to measure the genetic similarities among the rice varieties. Six hierarchical clustering methods, including the single linkage, median linkage, centroid, unweighted pair-group average, weighted pair-group average and flexible-beta methods, were combined with random, preferred and deviation sampling to develop 18 core collections of rice germplasm. The results show that the deviation sampling strategy in combination with the unweighted pair-group average method of hierarchical clustering retains the greatest degree of genetic diversities of the initial collection. The core collections sampled using predicted genotypic values had more genetic diversity than those based on phenotypic values.

  5. OSPREY Predicts Resistance Mutations Using Positive and Negative Computational Protein Design.

    PubMed

    Ojewole, Adegoke; Lowegard, Anna; Gainza, Pablo; Reeve, Stephanie M; Georgiev, Ivelin; Anderson, Amy C; Donald, Bruce R

    2017-01-01

    Drug resistance in protein targets is an increasingly common phenomenon that reduces the efficacy of both existing and new antibiotics. However, knowledge of future resistance mutations during pre-clinical phases of drug development would enable the design of novel antibiotics that are robust against not only known resistant mutants, but also against those that have not yet been clinically observed. Computational structure-based protein design (CSPD) is a transformative field that enables the prediction of protein sequences with desired biochemical properties such as binding affinity and specificity to a target. The use of CSPD to predict previously unseen resistance mutations represents one of the frontiers of computational protein design. In a recent study (Reeve et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 112(3):749-754, 2015), we used our OSPREY (Open Source Protein REdesign for You) suite of CSPD algorithms to prospectively predict resistance mutations that arise in the active site of the dihydrofolate reductase enzyme from methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (SaDHFR) in response to selective pressure from an experimental competitive inhibitor. We demonstrated that our top predicted candidates are indeed viable resistant mutants. Since that study, we have significantly enhanced the capabilities of OSPREY with not only improved modeling of backbone flexibility, but also efficient multi-state design, fast sparse approximations, partitioned continuous rotamers for more accurate energy bounds, and a computationally efficient representation of molecular-mechanics and quantum-mechanical energy functions. Here, using SaDHFR as an example, we present a protocol for resistance prediction using the latest version of OSPREY. Specifically, we show how to use a combination of positive and negative design to predict active site escape mutations that maintain the enzyme's catalytic function but selectively ablate binding of an inhibitor.

  6. The Predictive Validity of the ABFM's In-Training Examination.

    PubMed

    O'Neill, Thomas R; Li, Zijia; Peabody, Michael R; Lybarger, Melanie; Royal, Kenneth; Puffer, James C

    2015-05-01

    Our objective was to examine the predictive validity of the American Board of Family Medicine's (ABFM) In-Training Examination (ITE) with regard to predicting outcomes on the ABFM certification examination. This study used a repeated measures design across three levels of medical training (PGY1--PGY2, PGY2--PGY3, and PGY3--initial certification) with three different cohorts (2010--2011, 2011--2012, and 2012--2013) to examine: (1) how well the residents' ITE scores correlated with their test scores in the following year, (2) what the typical score increase was across training years, and (3) what was the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the PGY3 scores with regard to predicting future results on the MC-FP Examination. ITE scores generally correlate at about .7 with the following year's ITE or with the following year's certification examination. The mean growth from PGY1 to PGY2 was 52 points, from PGY2 to PGY3 was 34 points, and from PGY3 to initial certification was 27 points. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were .91, .47, .96, and .27, respectively. The ITE is a useful predictor of future ITE and initial certification examination performance.

  7. Resources predicting positive and negative affect during the experience of stress: a study of older Asian Indian immigrants in the United States.

    PubMed

    Diwan, Sadhna; Jonnalagadda, Satya S; Balaswamy, Shantha

    2004-10-01

    Using the life stress model of psychological well-being, in this study we examined risks and resources predicting the occurrence of both positive and negative affect among older Asian Indian immigrants who experienced stressful life events. We collected data through a telephone survey of 226 respondents (aged 50 years and older) in the Southeastern United States. We used hierarchical, negative binomial regression analyses to examine correlates of positive and negative affect. Different coping resources influenced positive and negative affect when stressful life events were controlled for. Being female was a common risk factor for poorer positive and increased negative affect. Satisfaction with friendships and a cultural or ethnic identity that is either bicultural or more American were predictive of greater positive affect. Greater religiosity and increased mastery were resources predicting less negative affect. Cognitive and structural interventions that increase opportunities for social integration, increasing mastery, and addressing spiritual concerns are discussed as ways of coping with stress to improve the well-being of individuals in this immigrant community.

  8. A Prospective Study on the Predictive Value of Plasma BK Virus-DNA Load for Hemorrhagic Cystitis in Pediatric Patients After Stem Cell Transplantation.

    PubMed

    Cesaro, Simone; Tridello, Gloria; Pillon, Marta; Calore, Elisabetta; Abate, Davide; Tumino, Manuela; Carucci, Nicolina; Varotto, Stefania; Cannata, Elisa; Pegoraro, Anna; Barzon, Luisa; Palù, Giorgio; Messina, Chiara

    2015-06-01

    In hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT), late hemorrhagic cystitis (HC) has been associated with BK virus (BKV) infection. We assessed the value of plasma BKV load in predicting HC. Plasma and urine BKV-DNA load were assessed prospectively in 107 pediatric patients. Twenty patients developed grade II and III HC, with 100-day cumulative incidence of 18.8%. At diagnosis of HC, the median load of BKV DNA was 2.3 × 10(3) copies/mL. A plasma BKV-DNA load of 10(3) copies/mL had a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of 86% with a negative predictive value (NPV) of 100% and a positive predictive value (PPV) of 39% for HC. A urine BKV-DNA load of >10(7) copies/mL had a sensitivity of 86% and a specificity of 60% with a NPV of 98% and a PPV of 14% for HC. A BKV load of 10(3) copies/mL on plasma was significantly associated with HC in multivariate analysis (hazard ratio [HR], 6.1; P = .0006). Patients with HC had a significantly higher risk of mortality than patients who did not have HC (HR, 2.6; P = .018). The above values were used to monitor plasma BKV-DNA load, and they provided a better prediction of patients at risk of HC than urine BKV-DNA load. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Pediatric Infectious Diseases Society. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  9. Arterial spin labeling-based Z-maps have high specificity and positive predictive value for neurodegenerative dementia compared to FDG-PET.

    PubMed

    Fällmar, David; Haller, Sven; Lilja, Johan; Danfors, Torsten; Kilander, Lena; Tolboom, Nelleke; Egger, Karl; Kellner, Elias; Croon, Philip M; Verfaillie, Sander C J; van Berckel, Bart N M; Ossenkoppele, Rik; Barkhof, Frederik; Larsson, Elna-Marie

    2017-10-01

    Cerebral perfusion analysis based on arterial spin labeling (ASL) MRI has been proposed as an alternative to FDG-PET in patients with neurodegenerative disease. Z-maps show normal distribution values relating an image to a database of controls. They are routinely used for FDG-PET to demonstrate disease-specific patterns of hypometabolism at the individual level. This study aimed to compare the performance of Z-maps based on ASL to FDG-PET. Data were combined from two separate sites, each cohort consisting of patients with Alzheimer's disease (n = 18 + 7), frontotemporal dementia (n = 12 + 8) and controls (n = 9 + 29). Subjects underwent pseudocontinuous ASL and FDG-PET. Z-maps were created for each subject and modality. Four experienced physicians visually assessed the 166 Z-maps in random order, blinded to modality and diagnosis. Discrimination of patients versus controls using ASL-based Z-maps yielded high specificity (84%) and positive predictive value (80%), but significantly lower sensitivity compared to FDG-PET-based Z-maps (53% vs. 96%, p < 0.001). Among true-positive cases, correct diagnoses were made in 76% (ASL) and 84% (FDG-PET) (p = 0.168). ASL-based Z-maps can be used for visual assessment of neurodegenerative dementia with high specificity and positive predictive value, but with inferior sensitivity compared to FDG-PET. • ASL-based Z-maps yielded high specificity and positive predictive value in neurodegenerative dementia. • ASL-based Z-maps had significantly lower sensitivity compared to FDG-PET-based Z-maps. • FDG-PET might be reserved for ASL-negative cases where clinical suspicion persists. • Findings were similar at two study sites.

  10. Evidence that specific executive functions predict symptom variance among schizophrenia patients with a predominantly negative symptom profile.

    PubMed

    Donohoe, Gary; Corvin, Aiden; Robertson, Ian H

    2006-01-01

    Although deficits in executive functioning in schizophrenia have been consistently reported, their precise relationship to symptomatology remains unclear. Recent approaches to executive functioning in nonschizophrenia studies have aimed to "fractionate" the individual cognitive processes involved. In this study, we hypothesised that if these processes are fractionable, then particular symptom syndromes may be selectively related to executive deficits. In particular, it was hoped that this approach could clarify whether negative and positive symptoms of schizophrenia are differentially related to particular aspects of executive/attentional functions. A total of 32 patients with schizophrenia and 16 matched controls were assessed on a series of tasks designed to tap the theoretically derived executive functions of Inhibition, Shifting set, Working memory, and Sustained attention. Negative symptoms were significantly predicted by performance on an "Inhibition" task (Stroop), and not by performance on any other task. Furthermore, for a subgroup of patients with predominantly negative symptoms variance in positive symptoms was only significantly predicted by performance on a set-shifting task (Visual Elevator), and not by performance on other tasks, including inhibition. Our results support the contention that negative symptoms can, at least partly, be conceived of as cognitive behaviours expressing specific executive deficits. Specifically, we discuss the possibility that negative symptoms may, in part, express a failure in response monitoring. We further suggest that the disordered metacognition resulting in positive symptoms may be mediated by cognitive flexibility in patients with a predominantly negative symptom profile.

  11. The value of non-echo planar HASTE diffusion-weighted MR imaging in the detection, localisation and prediction of extent of postoperative cholesteatoma.

    PubMed

    Khemani, S; Lingam, R K; Kalan, A; Singh, A

    2011-08-01

    To evaluate the diagnostic performance of half-Fourier-acquisition single-shot turbo-spin-echo (HASTE) diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging in the detection, localisation and prediction of extent of cholesteatoma following canal wall up mastoid surgery. Prospective blinded observational study. University affiliated teaching hospital. Forty-eight patients undergoing second-look surgery after previous canal wall up mastoid surgery for primary acquired cholesteatoma. All patients underwent non-echo planar HASTE diffusion-weighted imaging prior to being offered 'second-look' surgery. Radiological findings were correlated with second-look intra-operative findings in 38 cases with regard to presence, location and maximum dimensions of cholesteatoma. Half-Fourier-acquisition single-shot turbo-spin-echo diffusion-weighted imaging accurately predicted the presence of cholesteatoma in 23 of 28 cases, and it correctly excluded in nine of 10 cases. Five false negatives were caused by keratin pearls of <2 mm and in one case 5 mm. Overall sensitivity and specificity for detection of cholesteatoma were 82% (95% confidence interval [CI] 62-94%) and 90% (CI 55-100%), respectively. Positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 96% (CI 79-100%) and 64% (CI 35-87%), respectively. Overall accuracy for detection of cholesteatoma was 84% (CI 69-94%). Half-Fourier-acquisition single-shot turbo-spin-echo diffusion-weighted imaging has good performance in localising cholesteatoma to a number of anatomical sub-sites within the middle ear and mastoid (sensitivity ranging from 75% to 88% and specificity ranging from 94% to 100%). There was no statistically significant difference in the size of cholesteatoma detected radiologically and that found during surgery (paired t-test, P = 0.16). However, analysis of size agreement suggests possible radiological underestimation of size when using HASTE diffusion-weighted imaging (mean difference -0.6 mm, CI -5.3 to 4.6 mm). Half

  12. Estimating cross-validatory predictive p-values with integrated importance sampling for disease mapping models.

    PubMed

    Li, Longhai; Feng, Cindy X; Qiu, Shi

    2017-06-30

    An important statistical task in disease mapping problems is to identify divergent regions with unusually high or low risk of disease. Leave-one-out cross-validatory (LOOCV) model assessment is the gold standard for estimating predictive p-values that can flag such divergent regions. However, actual LOOCV is time-consuming because one needs to rerun a Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis for each posterior distribution in which an observation is held out as a test case. This paper introduces a new method, called integrated importance sampling (iIS), for estimating LOOCV predictive p-values with only Markov chain samples drawn from the posterior based on a full data set. The key step in iIS is that we integrate away the latent variables associated the test observation with respect to their conditional distribution without reference to the actual observation. By following the general theory for importance sampling, the formula used by iIS can be proved to be equivalent to the LOOCV predictive p-value. We compare iIS and other three existing methods in the literature with two disease mapping datasets. Our empirical results show that the predictive p-values estimated with iIS are almost identical to the predictive p-values estimated with actual LOOCV and outperform those given by the existing three methods, namely, the posterior predictive checking, the ordinary importance sampling, and the ghosting method by Marshall and Spiegelhalter (2003). Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  13. Prediction of textural attributes using color values of banana (Musa sapientum) during ripening.

    PubMed

    Jaiswal, Pranita; Jha, Shyam Narayan; Kaur, Poonam Preet; Bhardwaj, Rishi; Singh, Ashish Kumar; Wadhawan, Vishakha

    2014-06-01

    Banana is an important sub-tropical fruit in international trade. It undergoes significant textural and color transformations during ripening process, which in turn influence the eating quality of the fruit. In present study, color ('L', 'a' and 'b' value) and textural attributes of bananas (peel, fruit and pulp firmness; pulp toughness; stickiness) were studied simultaneously using Hunter Color Lab and Texture Analyser, respectively, during ripening period of 10 days at ambient atmosphere. There was significant effect of ripening period on all the considered textural characteristics and color properties of bananas except color value 'b'. In general, textural descriptors (peel, fruit and pulp firmness; and pulp toughness) decreased during ripening except stickiness, while color values viz 'a' and 'b' increased with ripening barring 'L' value. Among various textural attributes, peel toughness and pulp firmness showed highest correlation (r) with 'a' value of banana peel. In order to predict textural properties using color values of banana, five types of equations (linear/polynomial/exponential/logarithmic/power) were fitted. Among them, polynomial equation was found to be the best fit (highest coefficient of determination, R(2)) for prediction of texture using color properties for bananas. The pulp firmness, peel toughness and pulp toughness showed R(2) above 0.84 with indicating its potentiality of the fitted equations for prediction of textural profile of bananas non-destructively using 'a' value.

  14. Prognostic and predictive value of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes in two phase III randomized adjuvant breast cancer trials

    PubMed Central

    Dieci, M. V.; Mathieu, M. C.; Guarneri, V.; Conte, P.; Delaloge, S.; Andre, F.; Goubar, A.

    2015-01-01

    Background Tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) are emerging as strong prognostic factor for early breast cancer patients, especially in the triple-negative subtype. Here, we aim to validate previous findings on the prognostic role of TIL in the context of two randomized adjuvant trials and to investigate whether lymphocyte infiltrates can predict benefit from adjuvant anthracyclines. Patients and methods A total of 816 patients enrolled and treated at the Gustave Roussy in the context of two multicentric randomized trials comparing adjuvant anthracyclines versus no chemotherapy were included in the present analysis. Primary end point was overall survival (OS). Hematoxilin and eosin slides of primary tumors were retrieved and evaluated for the percentage of intratumoral (It) and stromal (Str) TIL. Each case was also defined as high-TIL or low-TIL breast cancer adopting previously validated cutoffs. Results TIL were assessable for 781 of 816 cases. High-TIL cases were more likely grade 3 and estrogen receptor (ER)-negative (P < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, both continuous It-TIL and Str-TIL were strong prognostic factors for OS [hazard ratio (HR) 0.85, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.77–0.95 P = 0.003; HR 0.89, 95% CI 0.81–0.96, P = 0.005 for It-TIL and Str-TIL, respectively]. The prognostic effect of continuous TIL was limited to triple-negative and HER2-positive patients. Ten-year OS rates were: 89% and 68% for triple-negative high-TIL and low-TIL, respectively (HR 0.44, 95% CI 0.18–1.10, P = 0.07) and 78% and 57% for HER2-positive high-TIL versus low-TIL, respectively (HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.20–1.11, P = 0.08). Either continuous or binary TIL variables did not predict for the efficacy of anthracyclines. Test for interaction P value was not significant in the whole study population and in subgroups (ER+/HER2−, HER2+, ER−/HER2−). Conclusions We confirmed the prognostic role of TIL in triple-negative early breast cancer and suggested a prognostic

  15. Interactions between the nucleus accumbens and auditory cortices predict music reward value.

    PubMed

    Salimpoor, Valorie N; van den Bosch, Iris; Kovacevic, Natasa; McIntosh, Anthony Randal; Dagher, Alain; Zatorre, Robert J

    2013-04-12

    We used functional magnetic resonance imaging to investigate neural processes when music gains reward value the first time it is heard. The degree of activity in the mesolimbic striatal regions, especially the nucleus accumbens, during music listening was the best predictor of the amount listeners were willing to spend on previously unheard music in an auction paradigm. Importantly, the auditory cortices, amygdala, and ventromedial prefrontal regions showed increased activity during listening conditions requiring valuation, but did not predict reward value, which was instead predicted by increasing functional connectivity of these regions with the nucleus accumbens as the reward value increased. Thus, aesthetic rewards arise from the interaction between mesolimbic reward circuitry and cortical networks involved in perceptual analysis and valuation.

  16. Predictive values of urinary bladder tumor markers survivin and soluble-Fas comparison with cystoscopy and bladder tumor antigen.

    PubMed

    Ganas, V; Kalaitzis, C; Sountoulides, P; Giannakopoulos, S; Touloupidis, S

    2012-12-01

    The aim of the study was to evaluate the predictive values of two novel urinary markers for bladder cancer: survivin and soluble-Fas (s-Fas). The study included 84 individuals divided in two groups. The first group contained 47 patients, who underwent transurethral bladder tumor resection and the second, control, group 20 patients with non-malignant conditions, who underwent cystoscopy and 17 health volunteers. Fresh, second morning voided urine was collected for measurement of s-Fas, survivin, BTA and for cytology. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values and accuracy were calculated. Bladder tumor patients had significantly higher survivin urine levels in comparison to the controls. Survivin correlated also with the tumor stage. Combination of survivin with BTA had a sensitivity of 86.4% but still lower than that of cystoscopy (97.8%). Only the specificity of the combination between survivin and BTA was higher than that of cystoscopy (86.4% and 75.6%, respectively). Survivin was a better marker for tumor detection than s-Fas and was better enough to discriminate cancer stage. Combination of survivin and BTA had a specificity of 86.4% to exclude bladder malignancy and the combination of s-Fas with survivin and BTA had a sensitivity of 93.6% to detect bladder cancer.

  17. The prognostic value of standardized reference values for speckle-tracking global longitudinal strain in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

    PubMed

    Hartlage, Gregory R; Kim, Jonathan H; Strickland, Patrick T; Cheng, Alan C; Ghasemzadeh, Nima; Pernetz, Maria A; Clements, Stephen D; Williams, B Robinson

    2015-03-01

    Speckle-tracking left ventricular global longitudinal strain (GLS) assessment may provide substantial prognostic information for hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) patients. Reference values for GLS have been recently published. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of standardized reference values for GLS in HCM patients. An analysis of HCM clinic patients who underwent GLS was performed. GLS was defined as normal (more negative or equal to -16%) and abnormal (less negative than -16%) based on recently published reference values. Patients were followed for a composite of events including heart failure hospitalization, sustained ventricular arrhythmia, and all-cause death. The power of GLS to predict outcomes was assessed relative to traditional clinical and echocardiographic variables present in HCM. 79 HCM patients were followed for a median of 22 months (interquartile range 9-30 months) after imaging. During follow-up, 15 patients (19%) met the primary outcome. Abnormal GLS was the only echocardiographic variable independently predictive of the primary outcome [multivariate Hazard ratio 5.05 (95% confidence interval 1.09-23.4, p = 0.038)]. When combined with traditional clinical variables, abnormal GLS remained independently predictive of the primary outcome [multivariate Hazard ratio 5.31 (95 % confidence interval 1.18-24, p = 0.030)]. In a model including the strongest clinical and echocardiographic predictors of the primary outcome, abnormal GLS demonstrated significant incremental benefit for risk stratification [net reclassification improvement 0.75 (95 % confidence interval 0.21-1.23, p < 0.0001)]. Abnormal GLS is an independent predictor of adverse outcomes in HCM patients. Standardized use of GLS may provide significant incremental value over traditional variables for risk stratification.

  18. Emotion, working memory task demands and individual differences predict behavior, cognitive effort and negative affect.

    PubMed

    Storbeck, Justin; Davidson, Nicole A; Dahl, Chelsea F; Blass, Sara; Yung, Edwin

    2015-01-01

    We examined whether positive and negative affect motivates verbal and spatial working memory processes, respectively, which have implications for the expenditure of mental effort. We argue that when emotion promotes cognitive tendencies that are goal incompatible with task demands, greater cognitive effort is required to perform well. We sought to investigate whether this increase in cognitive effort impairs behavioural control over a broad domain of self-control tasks. Moreover, we predicted that individuals with higher behavioural inhibition system (BIS) sensitivities would report more negative affect within the goal incompatible conditions because such individuals report higher negative affect during cognitive challenge. Positive or negative affective states were induced followed by completing a verbal or spatial 2-back working memory task. All participants then completed one of three self-control tasks. Overall, we observed that conditions of emotion and working memory incompatibility (positive/spatial and negative/verbal) performed worse on the self-control tasks, and within the incompatible conditions individuals with higher BIS sensitivities reported more negative affect at the end of the study. The combination of findings suggests that emotion and working memory compatibility reduces cognitive effort and impairs behavioural control.

  19. Value Preferences Predicting Narcissistic Personality Traits in Young Adults

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gungor, Ibrahim Halil; Eksi, Halil; Aricak, Osman Tolga

    2012-01-01

    This study aimed at showing how the value preferences of young adults could predict the narcissistic characteristics of young adults according to structural equation modeling. 133 female (59.6%) and 90 male (40.4%), total 223 young adults participated the study (average age: 25.66, ranging from 20 to 38). Ratio group sampling method was used while…

  20. Etiologic predictive value of a rapid immunoassay for the detection of group A Streptococcus antigen from throat swabs in patients presenting with a sore throat.

    PubMed

    Orda, Ulrich; Gunnarsson, Ronny; Orda, Sabine; Fitzgerald, Mark; Rofe, Geoff; Dargan, Anna

    2016-04-01

    Clinical reasoning utilizing certain symptoms and scores has not proven to be a reliable decision-making tool to determine whether or not to suspect a group A Streptococcus (GAS) infection in the patient presenting with a sore throat. Culture as the so-called 'gold standard' is impracticable because it takes 1 to 2 days (and even longer in remote locations) for a result, and thus treatment decisions will be made without the result available. Rapid diagnostic antigen tests have demonstrated sufficient sensitivities and specificities in detecting GAS antigens to identify GAS throat infections. Throat swab samples were collected from patients attending the Mount Isa Hospital emergency department for a sore throat; these samples were compared to swab samples collected from healthy controls who did not have a sore throat. Both groups were aged 3-15 years. All swab samples were analyzed with a point-of-care test (Alere Test Pack +Plus with OBC Strep A). The etiologic predictive value (EPV) of the throat swab was calculated. The 95% confidence interval for positive EPV was 88-100% and for negative EPV was 97-99%, depending on assumptions made. This study demonstrates that the point-of-care test Alere Test Pack +Plus Strep A has a high positive predictive value and is able to rule in GAS infection as long as the proportion of carriers is low. Also the negative predictive value for ruling out GAS as the etiologic agent is very high irrespective of the carrier rate. Hence, this test is always useful to rule out GAS infection. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  1. The diagnostic value of specific IgE to Ara h 2 to predict peanut allergy in children is comparable to a validated and updated diagnostic prediction model.

    PubMed

    Klemans, Rob J B; Otte, Dianne; Knol, Mirjam; Knol, Edward F; Meijer, Yolanda; Gmelig-Meyling, Frits H J; Bruijnzeel-Koomen, Carla A F M; Knulst, André C; Pasmans, Suzanne G M A

    2013-01-01

    A diagnostic prediction model for peanut allergy in children was recently published, using 6 predictors: sex, age, history, skin prick test, peanut specific immunoglobulin E (sIgE), and total IgE minus peanut sIgE. To validate this model and update it by adding allergic rhinitis, atopic dermatitis, and sIgE to peanut components Ara h 1, 2, 3, and 8 as candidate predictors. To develop a new model based only on sIgE to peanut components. Validation was performed by testing discrimination (diagnostic value) with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and calibration (agreement between predicted and observed frequencies of peanut allergy) with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and a calibration plot. The performance of the (updated) models was similarly analyzed. Validation of the model in 100 patients showed good discrimination (88%) but poor calibration (P < .001). In the updating process, age, history, and additional candidate predictors did not significantly increase discrimination, being 94%, and leaving only 4 predictors of the original model: sex, skin prick test, peanut sIgE, and total IgE minus sIgE. When building a model with sIgE to peanut components, Ara h 2 was the only predictor, with a discriminative ability of 90%. Cutoff values with 100% positive and negative predictive values could be calculated for both the updated model and sIgE to Ara h 2. In this way, the outcome of the food challenge could be predicted with 100% accuracy in 59% (updated model) and 50% (Ara h 2) of the patients. Discrimination of the validated model was good; however, calibration was poor. The discriminative ability of Ara h 2 was almost comparable to that of the updated model, containing 4 predictors. With both models, the need for peanut challenges could be reduced by at least 50%. Copyright © 2012 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Discussion about different cut-off values of conventional hamstring-to-quadriceps ratio used in hamstring injury prediction among professional male football players.

    PubMed

    Grygorowicz, Monika; Michałowska, Martyna; Walczak, Tomasz; Owen, Adam; Grabski, Jakub Krzysztof; Pyda, Andrzej; Piontek, Tomasz; Kotwicki, Tomasz

    2017-01-01

    To measure the sensitivity and specificity of differences cut-off values for isokinetic Hcon/Qcon ratio in order to improve the capacity to evaluate (retrospectively) the injury of hamstring muscles in professional soccer screened with knee isokinetic tests. Retrospective study. Medical and biomechanical data of professional football players playing for the same team for at least one season between 2010 and 2016 were analysed. Hamstring strain injury cases and the reports generated via isokinetic testing were investigated. Isokinetic concentric(con) hamstring(H) and quadriceps(Q) absolute strength in addition with Hcon/Qcon ratio were examined for the injured versus uninjured limbs among injured players, and for the injured and non-injured players. 2 x 2 contingency table was used for comparing variables: predicted injured or predicted uninjured with actual injured or actual uninjured. Sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive and negative predictive values, and positive and negative likelihood ratio were calculated for three different cut-off values (0.47 vs. 0.6 vs. 0.658) to compare the discriminative power of an isokinetic test, whilst examining the key value of Hcon/Qcon ratio which may indicate the highest level of ability to predispose a player to injury. McNemar's chi2 test with Yates's correction was used to determine agreement between the tests. PQStat software was used for all statistical analysis, and an alpha level of p <0.05 was used for all statistical comparisons. 340 isokinetic test reports on both limbs of 66 professional soccer players were analysed. Eleven players suffered hamstring injuries during the analysed period. None of these players sustained recurrence of hamstring injury. One player sustained hamstring strain injury on both legs, thus the total number of injuries was 12. Application of different cut-off values for Hcon/Qcon significantly affected the sensitivity and specificity of isokinetic test used as a tool for muscle injury

  3. Toddlers' Empathy-Related Responding to Distress: Predictions from Negative Emotionality and Maternal Behavior in Infancy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Spinrad, Tracy L.; Stifter, Cynthia A.

    2006-01-01

    This study focused on the predictive contributions of infants' temperamental negative emotionality (proneness to fear, anger), sex, maternal responsivity, and their interaction on toddlers' empathy-related responding to distress in 3 contexts. Ninety-eight infants and their mothers participated in a longitudinal study. When the infants were 10…

  4. Mismatch Negativity Encoding of Prediction Errors Predicts S-ketamine-Induced Cognitive Impairments

    PubMed Central

    Schmidt, André; Bachmann, Rosilla; Kometer, Michael; Csomor, Philipp A; Stephan, Klaas E; Seifritz, Erich; Vollenweider, Franz X

    2012-01-01

    Psychotomimetics like the N-methyl--aspartate receptor (NMDAR) antagonist ketamine and the 5-hydroxytryptamine2A receptor (5-HT2AR) agonist psilocybin induce psychotic symptoms in healthy volunteers that resemble those of schizophrenia. Recent theories of psychosis posit that aberrant encoding of prediction errors (PE) may underlie the expression of psychotic symptoms. This study used a roving mismatch negativity (MMN) paradigm to investigate whether the encoding of PE is affected by pharmacological manipulation of NMDAR or 5-HT2AR, and whether the encoding of PE under placebo can be used to predict drug-induced symptoms. Using a double-blind within-subject placebo-controlled design, S-ketamine and psilocybin, respectively, were administrated to two groups of healthy subjects. Psychological alterations were assessed using a revised version of the Altered States of Consciousness (ASC-R) questionnaire. As an index of PE, we computed changes in MMN amplitudes as a function of the number of preceding standards (MMN memory trace effect) during a roving paradigm. S-ketamine, but not psilocybin, disrupted PE processing as expressed by a frontally disrupted MMN memory trace effect. Although both drugs produced positive-like symptoms, the extent of PE processing under placebo only correlated significantly with the severity of cognitive impairments induced by S-ketamine. Our results suggest that the NMDAR, but not the 5-HT2AR system, is implicated in PE processing during the MMN paradigm, and that aberrant PE signaling may contribute to the formation of cognitive impairments. The assessment of the MMN memory trace in schizophrenia may allow detecting early phases of the illness and might also serve to assess the efficacy of novel pharmacological treatments, in particular of cognitive impairments. PMID:22030715

  5. Viscosity negatively affects the nutritional value of blue lupin seeds for broilers.

    PubMed

    Konieczka, P; Smulikowska, S

    2018-06-01

    This study examines the impact of Lupinus angustifolius variety (C) and inclusion level (L) in broiler diets on the nutritional value, viscosity of ileal digesta and activity of gut microbiota. The experiment was conducted on 154 female 21-day-old broilers, allocated to 11 groups (kept individually). A reference lupin-free diet and 10 test diets containing one of five lupin seeds; Kadryl, Regent, Dalbor, Bojar and Tango, mixed with the reference diet at a ratio of 25 : 75 or 32 : 68 dry matter (DM) (low or high level of inclusion) were prepared. Diets were fed for 6 days, excreta were collected over last 4 days. Apparent metabolizable energy corrected to zero N balance (AMEN) of diets and AMEN of lupin seeds were calculated. Birds were sacrificed, ileal and caecal digesta were pooled by segments from two birds, and the activity of bacterial enzymes was determined. The ileal digesta viscosity was measured immediately (ileal viscosity immediate (IVI)) or after 6 days storage at -18°C (ileal viscosity frozen). AMEN of test diets were lower than the reference diet. Lupin AMEN values ranged from 6.04 MJ/kg DM for Regent at high level to 9.25 MJ/kg DM for Bojar at low level. High inclusion level numerically decreased AMEN value in all cultivars, except for Kadryl, for which it increased (significant C×L interaction). The IVI value was 2.6 mPa·s in the reference group, but ranged from 6.3 to 21.7 mPa·s in lupin-fed birds. It increased significantly with level for Regent, Dalbor and Tango but not for the other two cultivars (significant C×L interaction). There was a negative correlation between IVI and: apparent total tract N retention, fat digestibility from test diets, AMEN of diets and lupins. Ileal viscosity immediate was positively correlated with the activity of ileal α- and β-glucosidase and negatively with ileal α-galactosidase and caecal α-glucosidase. Ileal viscosity frozen ranged from 3.2 to 5 mPa·s and it was not correlated with lupins AMEN. This

  6. Predictive value of C-reactive protein for tuberculosis, bloodstream infection or death among HIV-infected individuals with chronic, non-specific symptoms and negative sputum smear microscopy.

    PubMed

    Bedell, Richard A; van Lettow, Monique; Meaney, Christopher; Corbett, Elizabeth L; Chan, Adrienne K; Heyderman, Robert S; Anderson, Suzanne T; Åkesson, Ann; Kumwenda, Moses; Zachariah, Rony; Harries, Anthony D; Ramsay, Andrew R

    2018-03-01

    C-reactive protein (CRP) is an inflammatory biomarker that may identify patients at risk of infections or death. Mortality among HIV-infected persons commencing antiretroviral therapy (ART) is often attributed to tuberculosis (TB) or bloodstream infections (BSI). In two district hospitals in southern Malawi, we recruited HIV-infected adults with one or more unexplained symptoms present for at least one month (weight loss, fever or diarrhoea) and negative expectorated sputum microscopy for TB. CRP determination for 452 of 469 (96%) participants at study enrolment was analysed for associations with TB, BSI or death to 120 days post-enrolment. Baseline CRP was significantly elevated among patients with confirmed or probable TB (52), BSI (50) or death (60) compared to those with no identified infection who survived at least 120 days (269). A CRP value of >10 mg/L was associated with confirmed or probable TB (adjusted odds ratio 5.7; 95% CI 2.6, 14.3; 87% sensitivity) or death by 30 days (adjusted odds ratio 9.2; 95% CI 2.2, 55.1; 88% sensitivity). CRP was independently associated with TB, BSI or death, but the prediction of these endpoints was enhanced by including haemoglobin (all outcomes), CD4 count (BSI, death) and whether ART was started (death) in logistic regression models. High CRP at the time of ART initiation is associated with TB, BSI and early mortality and so has potential utility for stratifying patients for intensified clinical and laboratory investigation and follow-up. They may also be considered for empirical treatment of opportunistic infections including TB. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Clinical value of serum anti-mullerian hormone and inhibin B in prediction of ovarian response in patients with polycystic ovary syndrome.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Fan; Liu, Xiao-Ling; Rong, Nan; Huang, Xiao-Wen

    2017-02-01

    The present study aimed to investigate the clinical value of serum anti-mullerian hormone (AMH) and inhibin B (INHB) in predicting the ovarian response of patients with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). A total of 120 PCOS patients were enrolled and divided into three groups in terms of the ovarian response: a low-response group (n=36), a normal-response group (n=44), and a high-response group (n=40). The serum AMH and INHB levels were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The follicle stimulating hormone (FSH), luteinizing hormone (LH), and estradiol (E2) levels were determined by chemiluminescence microparticle immunoassay. The correlation of the serum AMH and INHB levels with other indicators was analyzed. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was established to analyze the prediction of ovarian response by AMH and INHB. The results showed that there were significant differences in age, body mass index (BMI), FSH, total gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH), LH, E2, and antral follicle counts (AFCs) between the groups (P<0.05). The serum AMH and INHB levels were increased significantly with the ovarian response of PCOS patients increasing (P<0.05). The serum AMH and INHB levels were negatively correlated with the age, BMI, FSH level, Gn, and E2 levels (P<0.05). They were positively correlated with the LH levels and AFCs (P<0.05). ROC curve analysis of serum AMH and INHB in prediction of a low ovarian response showed that the area under the ROC curve (AUC) value of the serum AMH level was 0.817, with a cut-off value of 1.29 ng/mL. The sensitivity and specificity were 71.2% and 79.6%, respectively. The AUC value of serum INHB was 0.674, with a cut-off value of 38.65 ng/mL, and the sensitivity and specificity were 50.7% and 74.5%, respectively. ROC curve analysis showed when the serum AMH and INHB levels were used to predict a high ovarian response, the AUC value of the serum AMH level was 0.742, with a cut-off value of 2.84 ng/mL, and

  8. Gram-negative bacteremia: which empirical antibiotic therapy?

    PubMed

    Shoai Tehrani, M; Hajage, D; Fihman, V; Tankovic, J; Cau, S; Day, N; Visseaux, C; Carbonnelle, E; Kouatchet, A; Cattoir, V; Nhan, T X; Corvec, S; Jacquier, H; Jauréguy, F; Le Monnier, A; Morand, P; Zahar, J R

    2014-04-01

    Given the increasing frequency of cefotaxime-resistant strains, third-generation cephalosporins (3GC e.g. cefotaxime, ceftriaxone) might not be recommended any longer as empirical antibiotic therapy for community-acquired Gram-negative bacteremia (CA-GNB). We conducted a multicenter prospective descriptive study including patients with CA-GNB. Two hundred and nineteen patients were included. Escherichia coli and Pseudomonas aeruginosa were the most frequently isolated species in 63% (n=138) and 11% (n=24) of the cases, respectively. The prevalence of cefotaxime-resistance reached 18% (n=39) mostly due to intrinsic resistance (27 cases, 12%). The presence of invasive material (P<0.001), the origin of the patient (Paris region or West of France) (P=0.006), and home health care (P<0.001) were variables predicting resistant GNB. The negative predictive value for resistance in patients with invasive material coming from the West of France, or without invasive material and with home health care was 94%. The positive predictive value for patients with invasive material living in Paris, or without invasive material and with home health care only reached 58 and 54%, respectively. Using 3GC for CA-GNB due to cefotaxime-resistant strains was relatively frequent, ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae being rarely involved. Our study highlights the role of local epidemiology; before any changes to first-line antibiotic therapy, local epidemiological data should be taken into account. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  9. Dynamic Divisive Normalization Predicts Time-Varying Value Coding in Decision-Related Circuits

    PubMed Central

    LoFaro, Thomas; Webb, Ryan; Glimcher, Paul W.

    2014-01-01

    Normalization is a widespread neural computation, mediating divisive gain control in sensory processing and implementing a context-dependent value code in decision-related frontal and parietal cortices. Although decision-making is a dynamic process with complex temporal characteristics, most models of normalization are time-independent and little is known about the dynamic interaction of normalization and choice. Here, we show that a simple differential equation model of normalization explains the characteristic phasic-sustained pattern of cortical decision activity and predicts specific normalization dynamics: value coding during initial transients, time-varying value modulation, and delayed onset of contextual information. Empirically, we observe these predicted dynamics in saccade-related neurons in monkey lateral intraparietal cortex. Furthermore, such models naturally incorporate a time-weighted average of past activity, implementing an intrinsic reference-dependence in value coding. These results suggest that a single network mechanism can explain both transient and sustained decision activity, emphasizing the importance of a dynamic view of normalization in neural coding. PMID:25429145

  10. The value of genetic information for diabetes risk prediction - differences according to sex, age, family history and obesity.

    PubMed

    Mühlenbruch, Kristin; Jeppesen, Charlotte; Joost, Hans-Georg; Boeing, Heiner; Schulze, Matthias B

    2013-01-01

    Genome-wide association studies have identified numerous single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with type 2 diabetes through the past years. In previous studies, the usefulness of these genetic markers for prediction of diabetes was found to be limited. However, differences may exist between substrata of the population according to the presence of major diabetes risk factors. This study aimed to investigate the added predictive value of genetic information (42 single nucleotide polymorphisms) in subgroups of sex, age, family history of diabetes, and obesity. A case-cohort study (random subcohort N = 1,968; incident cases: N = 578) within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition Potsdam study was used. Prediction models without and with genetic information were evaluated in terms of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and the integrated discrimination improvement. Stratified analyses included subgroups of sex, age (<50 or ≥50 years), family history (positive if either father or mother or a sibling has/had diabetes), and obesity (BMI< or ≥30 kg/m(2)). A genetic risk score did not improve prediction above classic and metabolic markers, but - compared to a non-invasive prediction model - genetic information slightly improved the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (difference [95%-CI]: 0.007 [0.002-0.011]). Stratified analyses showed stronger improvement in the older age group (0.010 [0.002-0.018]), the group with a positive family history (0.012 [0.000-0.023]) and among obese participants (0.015 [-0.005-0.034]) compared to the younger participants (0.005 [-0.004-0.014]), participants with a negative family history (0.003 [-0.001-0.008]) and non-obese (0.007 [0.000-0.014]), respectively. No difference was found between men and women. There was no incremental value of genetic information compared to standard non-invasive and metabolic markers. Our study suggests that inclusion of genetic

  11. Value of surgery in patients with negative imaging and sporadic Zollinger-Ellison syndrome.

    PubMed

    Norton, Jeffrey A; Fraker, Douglas L; Alexander, H Richard; Jensen, Robert T

    2012-09-01

    To address the value of surgery in patients with sporadic Zollinger-Ellison syndrome (ZES) with negative imaging studies. Medical control of acid hypersecretion in patients with sporadic ZES is highly effective. This has led to these patients frequently not being sent to surgery, especially if preoperative imaging studies are negative, due, in large part, to existence of almost no data on the success of surgery in this group. Fifty-eight prospectively studied patients with sporadic ZES (17% of total studied) had negative imaging studies, and their surgical outcome was compared with 117 patients with positive imaging results. Thirty-five patients had negative imaging studies in the pre-somatostatin receptor scintigraphy (SRS) era, and 23 patients in the post-SRS era. Patients with negative imaging studies had long disease histories before surgery [mean ± SEM (from onset) = 7.9 ± 1 [range, -0.25 to 35 years]) and 25% were followed for 2 or more years from diagnosis. At surgery, gastrinoma was found in 57 of 58 patients (98%). Tumors were small (mean = 0.8 cm, 60% <1 cm). The most common primary sites were duodenal 64%, pancreatic 17%, and lymph node (10%). Fifty percent had a primary-only, 41% primary + lymph node, and 7% had liver metastases. Thirty-five of 58 patients (60%) were cured immediately postoperatively, and at last follow-up [mean = -9.4 years; range, 0.2-22 years], 27 patients (46%) remained cured. During follow-up, 3 patients died, each had liver metastases at surgery. In comparison to positive imaging patients, those with negative imaging studies had lower preoperative fasting gastrin levels; had a longer delay before surgery; more frequently had a small duodenal tumor; less frequently had a pancreatic tumor, multiple tumors, or developed a new lesion postoperatively; and had a longer survival. Sporadic ZES patients with negative imaging studies are not rare even in the post-SRS period. An experienced surgeon can find gastrinoma in almost every

  12. The role of sense of coherence and physical activity in positive and negative affect of Turkish adolescents.

    PubMed

    Oztekin, Ceyda; Tezer, Esin

    2009-01-01

    This study investigated the role of sense of coherence and total physical activity in positive and negative affect. Participants were 376 (169 female, 206 male, and 1 missing value) student volunteers from different faculties of Middle East Technical University. Three questionnaires: Sense of Coherence Scale (SOC), Physical Activity Assessment Questionnaire (PAAQ), and Positive and Negative Affect Schedule (PANAS) were administered to the students together with the demographic information sheet. Two separate stepwise multiple linear regression analyses were conducted to examine the predictive power of sense of coherence and total physical activity on positive and negative affect scores. Results revealed that both sense of coherence and total physical activity predicted the positive affect whereas only the sense of coherence predicted the negative affect on university students. Findings are discussed in light of sense of coherence, physical activity, and positive and negative affect literature.

  13. Assessment of real-time PCR cycle threshold values in Microsporum canis culture-positive and culture-negative cats in an animal shelter: a field study.

    PubMed

    Jacobson, Linda S; McIntyre, Lauren; Mykusz, Jenny

    2018-02-01

    Objectives Real-time PCR provides quantitative information, recorded as the cycle threshold (Ct) value, about the number of organisms detected in a diagnostic sample. The Ct value correlates with the number of copies of the target organism in an inversely proportional and exponential relationship. The aim of the study was to determine whether Ct values could be used to distinguish between culture-positive and culture-negative samples. Methods This was a retrospective analysis of Ct values from dermatophyte PCR results in cats with suspicious skin lesions or suspected exposure to dermatophytosis. Results One hundred and thirty-two samples were included. Using culture as the gold standard, 28 were true positives, 12 were false positives and 92 were true negatives. The area under the curve for the pretreatment time point was 96.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] 94.2-99.5) compared with 74.3% (95% CI 52.6-96.0) for pooled data during treatment. Before treatment, a Ct cut-off of <35.7 (approximate DNA count 300) provided a sensitivity of 92.3% and specificity of 95.2%. There was no reliable cut-off Ct value between culture-positive and culture-negative samples during treatment. Ct values prior to treatment differed significantly between the true-positive and false-positive groups ( P = 0.0056). There was a significant difference between the pretreatment and first and second negative culture time points ( P = 0.0002 and P <0.0001, respectively). However, there was substantial overlap between Ct values for true positives and true negatives, and for pre- and intra-treatment time points. Conclusions and relevance Ct values had limited usefulness for distinguishing between culture-positive and culture-negative cases when field study samples were analyzed. In addition, Ct values were less reliable than fungal culture for determining mycological cure.

  14. [Predictive value of Hodgkin's lymphoma tumor burden in present].

    PubMed

    Kulyova, S A; Karitsky, A P

    2014-01-01

    Today approximately 70% of patients with Hodgkin lymphoma can be cured with the combined-modality therapy. Tumor burden, the importance of which was demonstrated 15 years ago for the first time, is a powerful prognostic factor. Data of literature of representations on predictive value of Hodgkin's lymphoma tumor burden are shown in the article. The difficult immunological relations between tumor cells and reactive ones lead to development of the main symptoms. Nevertheless, the collective sign of tumor burden shows the greatest influence on survival and on probability of resistance, which relative risk can be predicted on this variable and treatment program. Patients with bulky disease need escalated therapy with high-dose chemotherapy. Integration into predictive models of the variable will change an expected contribution of clinical and laboratory parameters in the regression analyses constructed on patients with Hodgkin's lymphoma. Today the role of diagnostic functional methods, in particular a positron emission tomography, for metabolic active measurement is conducted which allows excluding a reactive component.

  15. Getting off on the right foot: subjective value versus economic value in predicting longitudinal job outcomes from job offer negotiations.

    PubMed

    Curhan, Jared R; Elfenbein, Hillary Anger; Kilduff, Gavin J

    2009-03-01

    Although negotiation experiences can affect a negotiator's ensuing attitudes and behavior, little is known about their long-term consequences. Using a longitudinal survey design, the authors tested the degree to which economic and subjective value achieved in job offer negotiations predicts employees' subsequent job attitudes and intentions concerning turnover. Results indicate that subjective value predicts greater compensation satisfaction and job satisfaction and lower turnover intention measured 1 year later. Surprisingly, the economic outcomes that negotiators achieved had no apparent effects on these factors. Implications, limitations, and future directions are discussed. (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

  16. Does exposure to simulated patient cases improve accuracy of clinicians' predictive value estimates of diagnostic test results? A within-subjects experiment at St Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada.

    PubMed

    Armstrong, Bonnie; Spaniol, Julia; Persaud, Nav

    2018-02-13

    Clinicians often overestimate the probability of a disease given a positive test result (positive predictive value; PPV) and the probability of no disease given a negative test result (negative predictive value; NPV). The purpose of this study was to investigate whether experiencing simulated patient cases (ie, an 'experience format') would promote more accurate PPV and NPV estimates compared with a numerical format. Participants were presented with information about three diagnostic tests for the same fictitious disease and were asked to estimate the PPV and NPV of each test. Tests varied with respect to sensitivity and specificity. Information about each test was presented once in the numerical format and once in the experience format. The study used a 2 (format: numerical vs experience) × 3 (diagnostic test: gold standard vs low sensitivity vs low specificity) within-subjects design. The study was completed online, via Qualtrics (Provo, Utah, USA). 50 physicians (12 clinicians and 38 residents) from the Department of Family and Community Medicine at St Michael's Hospital in Toronto, Canada, completed the study. All participants had completed at least 1 year of residency. Estimation accuracy was quantified by the mean absolute error (MAE; absolute difference between estimate and true predictive value). PPV estimation errors were larger in the numerical format (MAE=32.6%, 95% CI 26.8% to 38.4%) compared with the experience format (MAE=15.9%, 95% CI 11.8% to 20.0%, d =0.697, P<0.001). Likewise, NPV estimation errors were larger in the numerical format (MAE=24.4%, 95% CI 14.5% to 34.3%) than in the experience format (MAE=11.0%, 95% CI 6.5% to 15.5%, d =0.303, P=0.015). Exposure to simulated patient cases promotes accurate estimation of predictive values in clinicians. This finding carries implications for diagnostic training and practice. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights

  17. Evidence That a Psychopathology Interactome Has Diagnostic Value, Predicting Clinical Needs: An Experience Sampling Study

    PubMed Central

    van Os, Jim; Lataster, Tineke; Delespaul, Philippe; Wichers, Marieke; Myin-Germeys, Inez

    2014-01-01

    Background For the purpose of diagnosis, psychopathology can be represented as categories of mental disorder, symptom dimensions or symptom networks. Also, psychopathology can be assessed at different levels of temporal resolution (monthly episodes, daily fluctuating symptoms, momentary fluctuating mental states). We tested the diagnostic value, in terms of prediction of treatment needs, of the combination of symptom networks and momentary assessment level. Method Fifty-seven patients with a psychotic disorder participated in an ESM study, capturing psychotic experiences, emotions and circumstances at 10 semi-random moments in the flow of daily life over a period of 6 days. Symptoms were assessed by interview with the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS); treatment needs were assessed using the Camberwell Assessment of Need (CAN). Results Psychotic symptoms assessed with the PANSS (Clinical Psychotic Symptoms) were strongly associated with psychotic experiences assessed with ESM (Momentary Psychotic Experiences). However, the degree to which Momentary Psychotic Experiences manifested as Clinical Psychotic Symptoms was determined by level of momentary negative affect (higher levels increasing probability of Momentary Psychotic Experiences manifesting as Clinical Psychotic Symptoms), momentary positive affect (higher levels decreasing probability of Clinical Psychotic Symptoms), greater persistence of Momentary Psychotic Experiences (persistence predicting increased probability of Clinical Psychotic Symptoms) and momentary environmental stress associated with events and activities (higher levels increasing probability of Clinical Psychotic Symptoms). Similarly, the degree to which momentary visual or auditory hallucinations manifested as Clinical Psychotic Symptoms was strongly contingent on the level of accompanying momentary paranoid delusional ideation. Momentary Psychotic Experiences were associated with CAN unmet treatment needs, over and above PANSS

  18. The importance of values in predicting Turkish youth's opinions about the European Union in light of the Copenhagen Political Criteria.

    PubMed

    Kuşdil, M Ersin; Simşek, Sefa

    2008-12-01

    The enlargement process of the European Union may be regarded as one of the most important social projects of human history in that it is trying to unite several nation-states under a "European identity." As a historically and culturally "distant" candidate, Turkey has been asked to meet a set of expectations referred to as the "Copenhagen Criteria," requiring a series of large-scale reforms to the infrastructure and superstructure of the country. Taking advantage of the unique opportunity to relate Turkish people's opinions on the criteria to their values, hypotheses based on Schwartz's model of values were tested. Schwartz's Personal Values Questionnaire and a questionnaire measuring opinions on the criteria and the Union were completed by 368 Turkish university students. Factor analysis of the opinion items yielded five factors: reduction of military influence in civil life, scepticism towards Europe and the European Union, improvement of human rights and liberties, improvement of minority rights, and lack of transparency in public institutions. Regression analyses showed that values and nationalism were powerful predictors of opinions whereas the effect of religiosity was limited only to the prediction of a preference for the reduction of military influence in civil life. Preference for openness to change values were successful in predicting variance in three of the five criteria: The more the participants favoured these values, the more they supported the improvement of human rights and liberties, the improvement of minority rights, and regretted the lack of transparency. Self-transcendence values were also positively related to support for the same three criteria together with a preference for reduction of military influence. As for nationalism, the results showed that this variable was related negatively to reduction of the military influence, improvement of human rights and liberties, improvement of minority rights; and positively to scepticism.

  19. Negative affect and a fluctuating jumping to conclusions bias predict subsequent paranoia in daily life: An online experience sampling study.

    PubMed

    Lüdtke, Thies; Kriston, Levente; Schröder, Johanna; Lincoln, Tania M; Moritz, Steffen

    2017-09-01

    Negative affect and a tendency to "jump to conclusions" (JTC) are associated with paranoia. So far, only negative affect has been examined as a precursor of subsequent paranoia in daily life using experience sampling (ESM). We addressed this research gap and used ESM to test whether JTC fluctuates in daily life, whether it predicts subsequent paranoia, and whether it mediates the effect of negative affect on paranoia. Thirty-five participants with schizophrenia spectrum disorders repeatedly self-reported negative affect, JTC, and paranoia via online questionnaires on two consecutive days. We measured JTC with a paradigm consisting of ambiguous written scenarios. Multilevel linear models were conducted. Most participants showed JTC consistently on two days rather than only on one day. When time was used as a predictor of JTC, significant slope variance indicated that for a subgroup of participants JTC fluctuated over time. For 48% of participants, these fluctuations equaled changes of approximately ±1 point on the four-point JTC scale within one day. There was no mediation. However, negative affect and JTC both significantly predicted subsequent paranoia. The ESM assessment period was short and encompassed few assessments (8 in total). Our findings indicate that JTC is both stable (regarding its mere occurrence) and fluctuating simultaneously (regarding its magnitude). Although JTC was not a mediator linking negative affect and paranoia, it did predict paranoia. Further ESM studies on JTC are needed to confirm our findings in longer assessment periods and with other JTC paradigms. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Computational prediction of type III and IV secreted effectors in Gram-negative bacteria

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    McDermott, Jason E.; Corrigan, Abigail L.; Peterson, Elena S.

    2011-01-01

    In this review, we provide an overview of the methods employed by four recent papers that described novel methods for computational prediction of secreted effectors from type III and IV secretion systems in Gram-negative bacteria. The results of the studies in terms of performance at accurately predicting secreted effectors and similarities found between secretion signals that may reflect biologically relevant features for recognition. We discuss the web-based tools for secreted effector prediction described in these studies and announce the availability of our tool, the SIEVEserver (http://www.biopilot.org). Finally, we assess the accuracy of the three type III effector prediction methods onmore » a small set of proteins not known prior to the development of these tools that we have recently discovered and validated using both experimental and computational approaches. Our comparison shows that all methods use similar approaches and, in general arrive at similar conclusions. We discuss the possibility of an order-dependent motif in the secretion signal, which was a point of disagreement in the studies. Our results show that there may be classes of effectors in which the signal has a loosely defined motif, and others in which secretion is dependent only on compositional biases. Computational prediction of secreted effectors from protein sequences represents an important step toward better understanding the interaction between pathogens and hosts.« less

  1. Predictive value of cognition for different domains of outcome in recent-onset schizophrenia.

    PubMed

    Holthausen, Esther A E; Wiersma, Durk; Cahn, Wiepke; Kahn, René S; Dingemans, Peter M; Schene, Aart H; van den Bosch, Robert J

    2007-01-15

    The aim of this study was to see whether and how cognition predicts outcome in recent-onset schizophrenia in a large range of domains such as course of illness, self-care, interpersonal functioning, vocational functioning and need for care. At inclusion, 115 recent-onset patients were tested on a cognitive battery and 103 patients participated in the follow-up 2 years after inclusion. Differences in outcome between cognitively normal and cognitively impaired patients were also analysed. Cognitive measures at inclusion did not predict number of relapses, activities of daily living and interpersonal functioning. Time in psychosis or in full remission, as well as need for care, were partly predicted by specific cognitive measures. Although statistically significant, the predictive value of cognition with regard to clinical outcome was limited. There was a significant difference between patients with and without cognitive deficits in competitive employment status and vocational functioning. The predictive value of cognition for different social outcome domains varies. It seems that cognition most strongly predicts work performance, where having a cognitive deficit, regardless of the nature of the deficit, acts as a rate-limiting factor.

  2. Impact of creatine kinase correction on the predictive value of S-100B after mild traumatic brain injury.

    PubMed

    Bazarian, Jeffrey J; Beck, Christopher; Blyth, Brian; von Ahsen, Nicolas; Hasselblatt, Martin

    2006-01-01

    To validate a correction factor for the extracranial release of the astroglial protein, S-100B, based on concomitant creatine kinase (CK) levels. The CK- S-100B relationship in non-head injured marathon runners was used to derive a correction factor for the extracranial release of S-100B. This factor was then applied to a separate cohort of 96 mild traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients in whom both CK and S-100B levels were measured. Corrected S-100B was compared to uncorrected S-100B for the prediction of initial head CT, three-month headache and three-month post concussive syndrome (PCS). Corrected S-100B resulted in a statistically significant improvement in the prediction of 3-month headache (area under curve [AUC] 0.46 vs 0.52, p=0.02), but not PCS or initial head CT. Using a cutoff that maximizes sensitivity (> or = 90%), corrected S-100B improved the prediction of initial head CT scan (negative predictive value from 75% [95% CI, 2.6%, 67.0%] to 96% [95% CI: 83.5%, 99.8%]). Although S-100B is overall poorly predictive of outcome, a correction factor using CK is a valid means of accounting for extracranial release. By increasing the proportion of mild TBI patients correctly categorized as low risk for abnormal head CT, CK-corrected S100-B can further reduce the number of unnecessary brain CT scans performed after this injury.

  3. Comparative values of medical school assessments in the prediction of internship performance.

    PubMed

    Lee, Ming; Vermillion, Michelle

    2018-02-01

    Multiple undergraduate achievements have been used for graduate admission consideration. Their relative values in the prediction of residency performance are not clear. This study compared the contributions of major undergraduate assessments to the prediction of internship performance. Internship performance ratings of the graduates of a medical school were collected from 2012 to 2015. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses were used to examine the predictive values of undergraduate measures assessing basic and clinical sciences knowledge and clinical performances, after controlling for differences in the Medical College Admission Test (MCAT). Four hundred eighty (75%) graduates' archived data were used in the study. Analyses revealed that clinical competencies, assessed by the USMLE Step 2 CK, NBME medicine exam, and an eight-station objective structured clinical examination (OSCE), were strong predictors of internship performance. Neither the USMLE Step 1 nor the inpatient internal medicine clerkship evaluation predicted internship performance. The undergraduate assessments as a whole showed a significant collective relationship with internship performance (ΔR 2  = 0.12, p < 0.001). The study supports the use of clinical competency assessments, instead of pre-clinical measures, in graduate admission consideration. It also provides validity evidence for OSCE scores in the prediction of workplace performance.

  4. Attentional bias to negative affect moderates negative affect's relationship with smoking abstinence.

    PubMed

    Etcheverry, Paul E; Waters, Andrew J; Lam, Cho; Correa-Fernandez, Virmarie; Vidrine, Jennifer Irvin; Cinciripini, Paul M; Wetter, David W

    2016-08-01

    To examine whether initial orienting (IO) and inability to disengage (ITD) attention from negative affective stimuli moderate the association of negative affect with smoking abstinence during a quit attempt. Data were from a longitudinal cohort study of smoking cessation (N = 424). A negative affect modified Stroop task was administered 1 week before and on quit day to measure IO and ITD. Ecological Momentary Assessments were used to create negative affect intercepts and linear slopes for the week before quitting and on quit day. Quit day and long-term abstinence measures were collected. Continuation ratio logit model analyses found significant interactions for prequit negative affect slope with prequit ITD, odds ratio (OR) = 0.738 (0.57, 0.96), p = .02, and for quit day negative affect intercept with quit day ITD, OR = 0.62 (0.41, 950), p = .03, predicting abstinence. The Prequit Negative Affect Intercept × Prequit IO interaction predicting quit day abstinence was significant, OR = 1.42 (1.06, 1.90), p = .02, as was the Quit Day Negative Affect Slope × Quit Day IO interaction predicting long-term abstinence, OR = 1.45 (1.02, 2.08), p = .04. The hypothesis that the association of negative affect with smoking abstinence would be moderated by ITD was generally supported. Among individuals with high ITD, negative affect was inversely related to abstinence, but unrelated to abstinence among individuals with lower levels of ITD. Unexpectedly, among individuals with low IO, negative affect was inversely related to abstinence, but unrelated to abstinence among individuals with higher levels of ITD. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  5. Parametric response mapping cut-off values that predict survival of hepatocellular carcinoma patients after TACE.

    PubMed

    Nörthen, Aventinus; Asendorf, Thomas; Shin, Hoen-Oh; Hinrichs, Jan B; Werncke, Thomas; Vogel, Arndt; Kirstein, Martha M; Wacker, Frank K; Rodt, Thomas

    2018-04-21

    Parametric response mapping (PRM) is a novel image-analysis technique applicable to assess tumor viability and predict intrahepatic recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients treated with transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). However, to date, the prognostic value of PRM for prediction of overall survival in HCC patients undergoing TACE is unclear. The objective of this explorative, single-center study was to identify cut-off values for voxel-specific PRM parameters that predict the post TACE overall survival in HCC patients. PRM was applied to biphasic CT data obtained at baseline and following 3 TACE treatments of 20 patients with HCC tumors ≥ 2 cm. The individual portal venous phases were registered to the arterial phases followed by segmentation of the largest lesion, i.e., the region of interest (ROI). Segmented voxels with their respective arterial and portal venous phase density values were displayed as a scatter plot. Voxel-specific PRM parameters were calculated and compared to patients' survival at 1, 2, and 3 years post treatment to identify the maximal predictive parameters. The hypervascularized tissue portion of the ROI was found to represent an independent predictor of the post TACE overall survival. For this parameter, cut-off values of 3650, 2057, and 2057 voxels, respectively, were determined to be optimal to predict overall survival at 1, 2, and 3 years after TACE. Using these cut points, patients were correctly classified as having died with a sensitivity of 80, 92, and 86% and as still being alive with a specificity of 60, 75, and 83%, respectively. The prognostic accuracy measured by area under the curve (AUC) values ranged from 0.73 to 0.87. PRM may have prognostic value to predict post TACE overall survival in HCC patients.

  6. Dynamic divisive normalization predicts time-varying value coding in decision-related circuits.

    PubMed

    Louie, Kenway; LoFaro, Thomas; Webb, Ryan; Glimcher, Paul W

    2014-11-26

    Normalization is a widespread neural computation, mediating divisive gain control in sensory processing and implementing a context-dependent value code in decision-related frontal and parietal cortices. Although decision-making is a dynamic process with complex temporal characteristics, most models of normalization are time-independent and little is known about the dynamic interaction of normalization and choice. Here, we show that a simple differential equation model of normalization explains the characteristic phasic-sustained pattern of cortical decision activity and predicts specific normalization dynamics: value coding during initial transients, time-varying value modulation, and delayed onset of contextual information. Empirically, we observe these predicted dynamics in saccade-related neurons in monkey lateral intraparietal cortex. Furthermore, such models naturally incorporate a time-weighted average of past activity, implementing an intrinsic reference-dependence in value coding. These results suggest that a single network mechanism can explain both transient and sustained decision activity, emphasizing the importance of a dynamic view of normalization in neural coding. Copyright © 2014 the authors 0270-6474/14/3416046-12$15.00/0.

  7. Clinical utility of an epigenetic assay to detect occult prostate cancer in histopathologically negative biopsies: results of the MATLOC study.

    PubMed

    Stewart, Grant D; Van Neste, Leander; Delvenne, Philippe; Delrée, Paul; Delga, Agnès; McNeill, S Alan; O'Donnell, Marie; Clark, James; Van Criekinge, Wim; Bigley, Joseph; Harrison, David J

    2013-03-01

    Concern about possible false-negative prostate biopsy histopathology findings often leads to rebiopsy. A quantitative methylation specific polymerase chain reaction assay panel, including GSTP1, APC and RASSF1, could increase the sensitivity of detecting cancer over that of pathological review alone, leading to a high negative predictive value and a decrease in unnecessary repeat biopsies. The MATLOC study blindly tested archived prostate biopsy needle core tissue samples of 498 subjects from the United Kingdom and Belgium with histopathologically negative prostate biopsies, followed by positive (cases) or negative (controls) repeat biopsy within 30 months. Clinical performance of the epigenetic marker panel, emphasizing negative predictive value, was assessed and cross-validated. Multivariate logistic regression was used to evaluate all risk factors. The epigenetic assay performed on the first negative biopsies of this retrospective review cohort resulted in a negative predictive value of 90% (95% CI 87-93). In a multivariate model correcting for patient age, prostate specific antigen, digital rectal examination and first biopsy histopathological characteristics the epigenetic assay was a significant independent predictor of patient outcome (OR 3.17, 95% CI 1.81-5.53). A multiplex quantitative methylation specific polymerase chain reaction assay determining the methylation status of GSTP1, APC and RASSF1 was strongly associated with repeat biopsy outcome up to 30 months after initial negative biopsy in men with suspicion of prostate cancer. Adding this epigenetic assay could improve the prostate cancer diagnostic process and decrease unnecessary repeat biopsies. Copyright © 2013 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Predictive value of cervical length in women with twin pregnancy presenting with threatened preterm labor.

    PubMed

    Melamed, N; Hiersch, L; Gabbay-Benziv, R; Bardin, R; Meizner, I; Wiznitzer, A; Yogev, Y

    2015-07-01

    To assess the accuracy and determine the optimal threshold of sonographic cervical length (CL) for the prediction of preterm delivery (PTD) in women with twin pregnancies presenting with threatened preterm labor (PTL). This was a retrospective study of women with twin pregnancies who presented with threatened PTL and underwent sonographic measurement of CL in a tertiary center. The accuracy of CL in predicting PTD in women with twin pregnancies was compared with that in a control group of women with singleton pregnancies. Overall, 218 women with a twin pregnancy and 1077 women with a singleton pregnancy, who presented with PTL, were included in the study. The performance of CL as a predictive test for PTD was similar in twins and singletons, as reflected by the similar correlation between CL and the examination-to-delivery interval (r, 0.30 vs 0.29; P = 0.9), the similar association of CL with risk of PTD, and the similar areas under the receiver-operating characteristics curves for differing delivery outcomes (range, 0.653-0.724 vs 0.620-0.682, respectively; P = 0.3). The optimal threshold of CL for any given target sensitivity or specificity was lower in twin than in singleton pregnancies. However, in order to achieve a negative predictive value of 95%, a higher threshold (28-30 mm) should be used in twin pregnancies. Using this twin-specific CL threshold, women with twins who present with PTL are more likely to have a positive CL test, and therefore to require subsequent interventions, than are women with singleton pregnancies with PTL (55% vs 4.2%, respectively). In women with PTL, the performance of CL as a test for the prediction of PTD is similar in twin and singleton pregnancies. However, the optimal threshold of CL for the prediction of PTD appears to be higher in twin pregnancies, mainly owing to the higher baseline risk for PTD in these pregnancies. Copyright © 2014 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Positive and Negative Emotion Prospectively Predict Trajectories of Resilience and Distress Among High-Exposure Police Officers

    PubMed Central

    Galatzer-Levy, Isaac R.; Brown, Adam D.; Henn-Haase, Clare; Metzler, Thomas J.; Neylan, Thomas C.; Marmar, Charles R.

    2013-01-01

    Responses to both potentially traumatic events and other significant life stressors have been shown to conform to discrete patterns of response such as resilience, anticipatory stress, initial distress with gradual recovery, and chronic distress. The etiology of these trajectories is still unclear. Individual differences in levels of negative and positive emotion are believed to play a role in determining risk and resilience following traumatic exposure. In the current investigation, we followed police officers prospectively from academy training through 48 months of active duty, assessing levels of distress every 12 months. Using latent class growth analysis, we identified 4 trajectories closely conforming to prototypical patterns. Furthermore, we found that lower levels of self-reported negative emotion during academy training prospectively predicted membership in the resilient trajectory compared with the more symptomatic trajectories following the initiation of active duty, whereas higher levels of positive emotion during academy training differentiated resilience from a trajectory that was equivalently low on distress during academy training but consistently grew in distress through 4 years of active duty. These findings emerging from a prospective longitudinal design provide evidence that resilience is predicted by both lower levels of negative emotion and higher levels of positive emotion prior to active duty stressor exposure. PMID:23339621

  10. Discussion about different cut-off values of conventional hamstring-to-quadriceps ratio used in hamstring injury prediction among professional male football players

    PubMed Central

    Michałowska, Martyna; Walczak, Tomasz; Owen, Adam; Grabski, Jakub Krzysztof; Pyda, Andrzej; Piontek, Tomasz; Kotwicki, Tomasz

    2017-01-01

    Objective To measure the sensitivity and specificity of differences cut-off values for isokinetic Hcon/Qcon ratio in order to improve the capacity to evaluate (retrospectively) the injury of hamstring muscles in professional soccer screened with knee isokinetic tests. Design Retrospective study. Methods Medical and biomechanical data of professional football players playing for the same team for at least one season between 2010 and 2016 were analysed. Hamstring strain injury cases and the reports generated via isokinetic testing were investigated. Isokinetic concentric(con) hamstring(H) and quadriceps(Q) absolute strength in addition with Hcon/Qcon ratio were examined for the injured versus uninjured limbs among injured players, and for the injured and non-injured players. 2 x 2 contingency table was used for comparing variables: predicted injured or predicted uninjured with actual injured or actual uninjured. Sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive and negative predictive values, and positive and negative likelihood ratio were calculated for three different cut-off values (0.47 vs. 0.6 vs. 0.658) to compare the discriminative power of an isokinetic test, whilst examining the key value of Hcon/Qcon ratio which may indicate the highest level of ability to predispose a player to injury. McNemar’s chi2 test with Yates’s correction was used to determine agreement between the tests. PQStat software was used for all statistical analysis, and an alpha level of p <0.05 was used for all statistical comparisons. Results 340 isokinetic test reports on both limbs of 66 professional soccer players were analysed. Eleven players suffered hamstring injuries during the analysed period. None of these players sustained recurrence of hamstring injury. One player sustained hamstring strain injury on both legs, thus the total number of injuries was 12. Application of different cut-off values for Hcon/Qcon significantly affected the sensitivity and specificity of isokinetic test

  11. Effects of reinforcement value on instruction following under schedules of negative reinforcement.

    PubMed

    Alessandri, Jérôme; Cançado, Carlos R X; Abreu-Rodrigues, Josele

    2017-12-01

    The effects of reinforcement value and social control on instruction following under a negative-reinforcement (escape) schedule were studied. Initially, responding produced timeouts from pressing a force cell under a low and a high force requirement on a fixed-ratio 1 schedule of reinforcement. Next, participants were reexposed to the low and high force requirements, but were instructed that the experimenter expected them to decrease the number of timeouts relative to the previous exposures to the procedure. Even though following the instruction led to a decrease in number of timeouts and to an increase in effort (i.e., was non-efficient), instruction following occurred consistently for each participant and was modulated by reinforcement value. That is, the decrease in the number of timeouts (i.e., instruction following) was lower under the high force requirement than under the low force requirement. These results replicate and extend previous findings that instructions interact with social and nonsocial contingencies in controlling human behavior. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. The predicted influence of climate change on lesser prairie-chicken reproductive parameters

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grisham, Blake A.; Boal, Clint W.; Haukos, David A.; Davis, D.; Boydston, Kathy K.; Dixon, Charles; Heck, Willard R.

    2013-01-01

    The Southern High Plains is anticipated to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change. These changes may influence the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) in positive or negative ways. We assessed the potential changes in clutch size, incubation start date, and nest survival for lesser prairie-chickens for the years 2050 and 2080 based on modeled predictions of climate change and reproductive data for lesser prairie-chickens from 2001-2011 on the Southern High Plains of Texas and New Mexico. We developed 9 a priori models to assess the relationship between reproductive parameters and biologically relevant weather conditions. We selected weather variable(s) with the most model support and then obtained future predicted values from climatewizard.org. We conducted 1,000 simulations using each reproductive parameter's linear equation obtained from regression calculations, and the future predicted value for each weather variable to predict future reproductive parameter values for lesser prairie-chickens. There was a high degree of model uncertainty for each reproductive value. Winter temperature had the greatest effect size for all three parameters, suggesting a negative relationship between above-average winter temperature and reproductive output. The above-average winter temperatures are correlated to La Nina events, which negatively affect lesser prairie-chickens through resulting drought conditions. By 2050 and 2080, nest survival was predicted to be below levels considered viable for population persistence; however, our assessment did not consider annual survival of adults, chick survival, or the positive benefit of habitat management and conservation, which may ultimately offset the potentially negative effect of drought on nest survival.

  13. Estimating Time-Varying PCB Exposures Using Person-Specific Predictions to Supplement Measured Values: A Comparison of Observed and Predicted Values in Two Cohorts of Norwegian Women

    PubMed Central

    Nøst, Therese Haugdahl; Breivik, Knut; Wania, Frank; Rylander, Charlotta; Odland, Jon Øyvind; Sandanger, Torkjel Manning

    2015-01-01

    , Rylander C, Odland JØ, Sandanger TM. 2016. Estimating time-varying PCB exposures using person-specific predictions to supplement measured values: a comparison of observed and predicted values in two cohorts of Norwegian women. Environ Health Perspect 124:299–305; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1409191 PMID:26186800

  14. Implicit Theories, Expectancies, and Values Predict Mathematics Motivation and Behavior across High School and College.

    PubMed

    Priess-Groben, Heather A; Hyde, Janet Shibley

    2017-06-01

    Mathematics motivation declines for many adolescents, which limits future educational and career options. The present study sought to identify predictors of this decline by examining whether implicit theories assessed in ninth grade (incremental/entity) predicted course-taking behaviors and utility value in college. The study integrated implicit theory with variables from expectancy-value theory to examine potential moderators and mediators of the association of implicit theories with college mathematics outcomes. Implicit theories and expectancy-value variables were assessed in 165 American high school students (47 % female; 92 % White), who were then followed into their college years, at which time mathematics courses taken, course-taking intentions, and utility value were assessed. Implicit theories predicted course-taking intentions and utility value, but only self-concept of ability predicted courses taken, course-taking intentions, and utility value after controlling for prior mathematics achievement and baseline values. Expectancy for success in mathematics mediated associations between self-concept of ability and college outcomes. This research identifies self-concept of ability as a stronger predictor than implicit theories of mathematics motivation and behavior across several years: math self-concept is critical to sustained engagement in mathematics.

  15. Accuracy of ultrasound for the prediction of placenta accreta.

    PubMed

    Bowman, Zachary S; Eller, Alexandra G; Kennedy, Anne M; Richards, Douglas S; Winter, Thomas C; Woodward, Paula J; Silver, Robert M

    2014-08-01

    Ultrasound has been reported to be greater than 90% sensitive for the diagnosis of accreta. Prior studies may be subject to bias because of single expert observers, suspicion for accreta, and knowledge of risk factors. We aimed to assess the accuracy of ultrasound for the prediction of accreta. Patients with accreta at a single academic center were matched to patients with placenta previa, but no accreta, by year of delivery. Ultrasound studies with views of the placenta were collected, deidentified, blinded to clinical history, and placed in random sequence. Six investigators prospectively interpreted each study for the presence of accreta and findings reported to be associated with its diagnosis. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive, negative predictive value, and accuracy were calculated. Characteristics of accurate findings were compared using univariate and multivariate analyses. Six investigators examined 229 ultrasound studies from 55 patients with accreta and 56 controls for 1374 independent observations. 1205/1374 (87.7% overall, 90% controls, 84.9% cases) studies were given a diagnosis. There were 371 (27.0%) true positives; 81 (5.9%) false positives; 533 (38.8%) true negatives, 220 (16.0%) false negatives, and 169 (12.3%) with uncertain diagnosis. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy were 53.5%, 88.0%, 82.1%, 64.8%, and 64.8%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, true positives were more likely to have placental lacunae (odds ratio [OR], 1.5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.4-1.6), loss of retroplacental clear space (OR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.1-4.9), or abnormalities on color Doppler (OR, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.8-2.4). Ultrasound for the prediction of placenta accreta may not be as sensitive as previously described. Copyright © 2014 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. The chronic obstructive pulmonary disease assessment test improves the predictive value of previous exacerbations for poor outcomes in COPD.

    PubMed

    Miravitlles, Marc; García-Sidro, Patricia; Fernández-Nistal, Alonso; Buendía, María Jesús; Espinosa de Los Monteros, María José; Esquinas, Cristina; Molina, Jesús

    2015-01-01

    Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations have a negative impact on the quality of life of patients and the evolution of the disease. We have investigated the prognostic value of several health-related quality of life questionnaires to predict the appearance of a composite event (new ambulatory or emergency exacerbation, hospitalization, or death) over a 1-year follow-up. This was a multicenter, prospective, observational study. Patients completed four questionnaires after recovering from an exacerbation (COPD Assessment Test [CAT], a Clinical COPD Questionnaire [CCQ], COPD Severity Score [COPDSS], and Airways Questionnaire [AQ20]). Patients were followed-up until the appearance of the composite event or for 1 year, whichever came first. A total of 497 patients were included in the study. The majority of them were men (89.7%), with a mean age of 68.7 (SD 9.2) years, and a forced expiratory volume in 1 second of 47.1% (SD 17.5%). A total of 303 (61%) patients experienced a composite event. Patients with an event had worse mean scores of all questionnaires at baseline compared to patients without event: CAT=12.5 vs 11.3 (P=0.028); CCQ=2.2 vs 1.9 (P=0.013); COPDSS=12.3 vs 10.9 (P=0.001); AQ20=8.3 vs 7.5 (P=0.048). In the multivariate analysis, only previous history of exacerbations and CAT score ≥13.5 were significant risk factors for the composite event. A CAT score ≥13.5 increased the predictive value of previous exacerbations with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.864 (95% CI: 0.829-0.899; P=0.001). The predictive value of previous exacerbations significantly increased only in one of the four trialled questionnaires, namely in the CAT questionnaire. However, previous history of exacerbations was the strongest predictor of the composite event.

  17. Predictive Value of an Early Amplitude Integrated Electroencephalogram and Neurologic Examination

    PubMed Central

    Pappas, Athina; McDonald, Scott A.; Laptook, Abbot R.; Bara, Rebecca; Ehrenkranz, Richard A.; Tyson, Jon E.; Goldberg, Ronald; Donovan, Edward F.; Fanaroff, Avroy A.; Das, Abhik; Poole, W. Kenneth; Walsh, Michele; Higgins, Rosemary D.; Welsh, Cherie; Salhab, Walid; Carlo, Waldemar A.; Poindexter, Brenda; Stoll, Barbara J.; Guillet, Ronnie; Finer, Neil N.; Stevenson, David K.; Bauer, Charles R.

    2011-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To examine the predictive validity of the amplitude integrated electroencephalogram (aEEG) and stage of encephalopathy among infants with hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy (HIE) eligible for therapeutic whole-body hypothermia. DESIGN: Neonates were eligible for this prospective study if moderate or severe HIE occurred at <6 hours and an aEEG was obtained at <9 hours of age. The primary outcome was death or moderate/severe disability at 18 months. RESULTS: There were 108 infants (71 with moderate HIE and 37 with severe HIE) enrolled in the study. aEEG findings were categorized as normal, with continuous normal voltage (n = 12) or discontinuous normal voltage (n = 12), or abnormal, with burst suppression (n = 22), continuous low voltage (n = 26), or flat tracing (n = 36). At 18 months, 53 infants (49%) experienced death or disability. Severe HIE and an abnormal aEEG were related to the primary outcome with univariate analysis, whereas severe HIE alone was predictive of outcome with multivariate analysis. Addition of aEEG pattern to HIE stage did not add to the predictive value of the model; the area under the curve changed from 0.72 to 0.75 (P = .19). CONCLUSIONS: The aEEG background pattern did not significantly enhance the value of the stage of encephalopathy at study entry in predicting death and disability among infants with HIE. PMID:21669899

  18. Predictive value of ventilatory inflection points determined under field conditions.

    PubMed

    Heyde, Christian; Mahler, Hubert; Roecker, Kai; Gollhofer, Albert

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive potential provided by two ventilatory inflection points (VIP1 and VIP2) examined in field without using gas analysis systems and uncomfortable facemasks. A calibrated respiratory inductance plethysmograph (RIP) and a computerised routine were utilised, respectively, to derive ventilation and to detect VIP1 and VIP2 during a standardised field ramp test on a 400 m running track on 81 participants. In addition, average running speed of a competitive 1000 m run (S1k) was observed as criterion. The predictive value of running speed at VIP1 (SVIP1) and the speed range between VIP1 and VIP2 in relation to VIP2 (VIPSPAN) was analysed via regression analysis. VIPSPAN rather than running speed at VIP2 (SVIP2) was operationalised as a predictor to consider the covariance between SVIP1 and SVIP2. SVIP1 and VIPSPAN, respectively, provided 58.9% and 22.9% of explained variance in regard to S1k. Considering covariance, the timing of two ventilatory inflection points provides predictive value in regard to a competitive 1000 m run. This is the first study to apply computerised detection of ventilatory inflection points in a field setting independent on measurements of the respiratory gas exchange and without using any facemasks.

  19. Predictive factors for somatization in a trauma sample

    PubMed Central

    2009-01-01

    Background Unexplained somatic symptoms are common among trauma survivors. The relationship between trauma and somatization appears to be mediated by posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). However, only few studies have focused on what other psychological risk factors may predispose a trauma victim towards developing somatoform symptoms. Methods The present paper examines the predictive value of PTSD severity, dissociation, negative affectivity, depression, anxiety, and feeling incompetent on somatization in a Danish sample of 169 adult men and women who were affected by a series of explosions in a firework factory settled in a residential area. Results Negative affectivity and feelings of incompetence significantly predicted somatization, explaining 42% of the variance. PTSD was significant until negative affectivity was controlled for. Conclusion Negative affectivity and feelings of incompetence significantly predicted somatization in the trauma sample whereas dissociation, depression, and anxiety were not associated with degree of somatization. PTSD as a risk factor was mediated by negative affectivity. PMID:19126224

  20. Early prediction of blonanserin response in Japanese patients with schizophrenia.

    PubMed

    Kishi, Taro; Matsuda, Yuki; Fujita, Kiyoshi; Iwata, Nakao

    2014-01-01

    Blonanserin is a second-generation antipsychotic used for the treatment of schizophrenia in Japan and Korea. The present study aimed to examine early prediction of blonanserin in patients with schizophrenia. An 8-week, prospective, single-arm, flexible-dose clinical trial of blonanserin in patients with schizophrenia was conducted under real-world conditions. The inclusion criteria were antipsychotic naïve, and first-episode schizophrenia patients or schizophrenia patients with no consumption of any antipsychotic medication for more than 4 weeks before enrollment in this study. The positive predictive value, negative predictive value, sensitivity, specificity, and predictive power were calculated for the response status at week 4 to predict the subsequent response at week 8. Thirty-seven patients were recruited (56.8% of them had first-episode schizophrenia), and 28 (75.7%) completed the trial. At week 8, blonanserin was associated with a significant improvement in the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) total score (P<0.0001) and in positive (P<0.0001), negative (P<0.0001), and general subscale scores (P<0.0001). In terms of percentage improvement of PANSS total scores from baseline to week 8, 64.9% of patients showed a ≥20% reduction in the PANSS total score and 48.6% showed a ≥30% reduction. However, 8.1% of patients experienced at least one adverse event. Using the 20% reduction in the PANSS total score at week 4 as a definition of an early response, the negative predictive values for later responses (ie, reductions of ≥30 and ≥40 in the PANSS total scores) were 88.9% and 94.1%, respectively. The specificities were 80.0% and 51.6%, respectively. Our results suggest that the blonanserin response at week 4 could predict the later response at week 8.

  1. Early prediction of blonanserin response in Japanese patients with schizophrenia

    PubMed Central

    Kishi, Taro; Matsuda, Yuki; Fujita, Kiyoshi; Iwata, Nakao

    2014-01-01

    Background Blonanserin is a second-generation antipsychotic used for the treatment of schizophrenia in Japan and Korea. The present study aimed to examine early prediction of blonanserin in patients with schizophrenia. Methods An 8-week, prospective, single-arm, flexible-dose clinical trial of blonanserin in patients with schizophrenia was conducted under real-world conditions. The inclusion criteria were antipsychotic naïve, and first-episode schizophrenia patients or schizophrenia patients with no consumption of any antipsychotic medication for more than 4 weeks before enrollment in this study. The positive predictive value, negative predictive value, sensitivity, specificity, and predictive power were calculated for the response status at week 4 to predict the subsequent response at week 8. Results Thirty-seven patients were recruited (56.8% of them had first-episode schizophrenia), and 28 (75.7%) completed the trial. At week 8, blonanserin was associated with a significant improvement in the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) total score (P<0.0001) and in positive (P<0.0001), negative (P<0.0001), and general subscale scores (P<0.0001). In terms of percentage improvement of PANSS total scores from baseline to week 8, 64.9% of patients showed a ≥20% reduction in the PANSS total score and 48.6% showed a ≥30% reduction. However, 8.1% of patients experienced at least one adverse event. Using the 20% reduction in the PANSS total score at week 4 as a definition of an early response, the negative predictive values for later responses (ie, reductions of ≥30 and ≥40 in the PANSS total scores) were 88.9% and 94.1%, respectively. The specificities were 80.0% and 51.6%, respectively. Conclusion Our results suggest that the blonanserin response at week 4 could predict the later response at week 8. PMID:25285009

  2. How reliably can computed tomography predict thyroid invasion prior to laryngectomy?

    PubMed

    Harris, Andrew S; Passant, Carl D; Ingrams, Duncan R

    2018-05-01

    There is little evidence to support the removal of thyroid tissue during total laryngectomy. Although oncological control of the tumor is the priority, thyroidectomy can lead to hypothyroidism and hypoparathyroidism. This study aimed to test the usefulness of preoperative computed tomography in predicting histological invasion of the thyroid. Ambispective cohort study. All patients undergoing total laryngectomy for squamous cell carcinoma at one center from 2006 to 2016 were included. Data were recorded prospectively as part of the patients' standard care, but were collated retrospectively, giving this study an ambispective design. The histology report for thyroid invasion was taken as the gold standard. The computed tomography report was categorized by invasion of tumor into intralaryngeal, laryngeal cartilage involvement, and extralaryngeal tissues. Seventy-nine patients were included. Nine patients had thyroid involvement on histology, translating to an incidence of 11.29% in this population. The positive predictive value for cartilage involvement on computed tomography for thyroid invasion was 52.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 28.5%-76.1%) and the negative predictive value was 100% (95% CI: 92.7%-100%).The positive predictive value for extralaryngeal spread on computed tomography for thyroid involvement was 100% (95% CI: 62.9%-100%), and the negative predictive value was also 100% (95% CI: 93.5%-100%). This study has shown that preoperative computed tomography is an effective method of ruling out thyroid gland invasion. The absence of extralaryngeal spread on computed tomography has been shown to be the most useful finding, with a high negative predictive value and a narrow 95% CI. 4. Laryngoscope, 128:1099-1102, 2018. © 2017 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

  3. Attentional Bias to Negative Affect Moderates Negative Affect’s Relationship with Smoking Abstinence

    PubMed Central

    Etcheverry, Paul E.; Waters, Andrew J.; Lam, Cho; Correa-Fernandez, Virmarie; Vidrine, Jennifer Irvin; Cinciripini, Paul M.; Wetter, David W.

    2016-01-01

    Objective To examine whether initial orienting (IO) and inability to disengage attention (ITD) from negative affective stimuli moderate the association of negative affect with smoking abstinence during a quit attempt. Methods Data were from a longitudinal cohort study of smoking cessation (N=424). A negative affect modified Stroop was administered one week before and on quit day to measure IO and ITD. Ecological Momentary Assessments were used to create negative affect intercepts and linear slopes for the week before quitting and on quit day. Quit day and long-term abstinence measures were collected. Results Continuation ratio (CR) logit model analyses found significant interactions of pre-quit negative affect slope with pre-quit ITD [OR = .738(.57, .96), p= .02] and quit day negative affect intercept with quit day ITD [OR = .62(.41, 950), p= .03] predicting abstinence. The interaction of pre-quit negative affect intercept and pre-quit IO predicting quit day abstinence was significant [OR = 1.42(1.06, 1.90), p= .02], as was the interaction of quit day negative affect slope and quit day IO predicting long-term abstinence [OR = 1.45(1.02, 2.08), p= .04]. Conclusions The hypothesis that the association of negative affect with smoking abstinence would be moderated by ITD was generally supported. Among individuals with high ITD, negative affect was inversely related to abstinence, but unrelated to abstinence among individuals with lower levels of ITD. Unexpectedly, among individuals with low IO negative affect was inversely related to abstinence, but unrelated to abstinence among individuals with higher levels of ITD. PMID:27505211

  4. Maternal prenatal cortisol predicts infant negative emotionality in a sex-dependent manner.

    PubMed

    Braithwaite, Elizabeth C; Pickles, Andrew; Sharp, Helen; Glover, Vivette; O'Donnell, Kieran J; Tibu, Florin; Hill, Jonathan

    2017-06-01

    Prenatal stress influences fetal developmental trajectories, which may implicate glucocorticoid mechanisms. There is also emerging evidence that effects of prenatal stress on offspring development are sex-dependent. However, little is known about the prospective relationship between maternal prenatal cortisol levels and infant behaviour, and whether it may be different in male and female infants. We sought to address this question using data from a prospective longitudinal cohort, stratified by risk. The Wirral Child Health and Development Study (WCHADS) cohort (n=1233) included a stratified random sub-sample (n=216) who provided maternal saliva samples, assayed for cortisol, at home over two days at 32weeks of pregnancy (on waking, 30-min post-waking and during the evening) and a measure of infant negative emotionality from the Neonatal Behavioural Assessment Scale (NBAS) at five weeks-of-age. General population estimates of associations among measures were obtained using inverse probability weights. Maternal prenatal cortisol sampled on waking predicted infant negative emotionality in a sex-dependent manner (interaction term, p=0.005); female infants exposed to high levels of prenatal cortisol were more negative (Beta=0.440, p=0.042), whereas male infants were less negative (Beta=-0.407, p=0.045). There was no effect of the 30-min post-waking measure or evening cortisol. Our findings add to an emerging body of work that has highlighted sex differences in fetal programming, whereby females become more reactive following prenatal stress, and males less reactive. A more complete understanding of sex-specific developmental trajectories in the context of prenatal stress is essential for the development of targeted prevention strategies. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  5. Effect of obesity on preterm delivery prediction by transabdominal recording of uterine electromyography.

    PubMed

    Lucovnik, Miha; Chambliss, Linda R; Blumrick, Richard; Balducci, James; Gersak, Ksenija; Garfield, Robert E

    2016-10-01

    It has been shown that noninvasive uterine electromyography (EMG) can identify true preterm labor more accurately than methods available to clinicians today. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of body mass index (BMI) on the accuracy of uterine EMG in predicting preterm delivery. Predictive values of uterine EMG for preterm delivery were compared in obese versus overweight/normal BMI patients. Hanley-McNeil test was used to compare receiver operator characteristics curves in these groups. Previously reported EMG cutoffs were used to determine groups with false positive/false negative and true positive/true negative EMG results. BMI in these groups was compared with Student t test (p < 0.05 significant). A total of 88 patients were included: 20 obese, 64 overweight, and four with normal BMI. EMG predicted preterm delivery within 7 days with area under the curve = 0.95 in the normal/overweight group, and with area under the curve = 1.00 in the obese group (p = 0.08). Six patients in true preterm labor (delivering within 7 days from EMG measurement) had low EMG values (false negative group). There were no false positive results. No significant differences in patient's BMI were noted between false negative group patients and preterm labor patients with high EMG values (true positive group) and nonlabor patients with low EMG values (true negative group; p = 0.32). Accuracy of noninvasive uterine EMG monitoring and its predictive value for preterm delivery are not affected by obesity. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  6. Novel immunohistochemistry-based signatures to predict metastatic site of triple-negative breast cancers.

    PubMed

    Klimov, Sergey; Rida, Padmashree Cg; Aleskandarany, Mohammed A; Green, Andrew R; Ellis, Ian O; Janssen, Emiel Am; Rakha, Emad A; Aneja, Ritu

    2017-09-05

    Although distant metastasis (DM) in breast cancer (BC) is the most lethal form of recurrence and the most common underlying cause of cancer related deaths, the outcome following the development of DM is related to the site of metastasis. Triple negative BC (TNBC) is an aggressive form of BC characterised by early recurrences and high mortality. Athough multiple variables can be used to predict the risk of metastasis, few markers can predict the specific site of metastasis. This study aimed at identifying a biomarker signature to predict particular sites of DM in TNBC. A clinically annotated series of 322 TNBC were immunohistochemically stained with 133 biomarkers relevant to BC, to develop multibiomarker models for predicting metastasis to the bone, liver, lung and brain. Patients who experienced metastasis to each site were compared with those who did not, by gradually filtering the biomarker set via a two-tailed t-test and Cox univariate analyses. Biomarker combinations were finally ranked based on statistical significance, and evaluated in multivariable analyses. Our final models were able to stratify TNBC patients into high risk groups that showed over 5, 6, 7 and 8 times higher risk of developing metastasis to the bone, liver, lung and brain, respectively, than low-risk subgroups. These models for predicting site-specific metastasis retained significance following adjustment for tumour size, patient age and chemotherapy status. Our novel IHC-based biomarkers signatures, when assessed in primary TNBC tumours, enable prediction of specific sites of metastasis, and potentially unravel biomarkers previously unknown in site tropism.

  7. Failing to learn from negative prediction errors: Obesity is associated with alterations in a fundamental neural learning mechanism.

    PubMed

    Mathar, David; Neumann, Jane; Villringer, Arno; Horstmann, Annette

    2017-10-01

    Prediction errors (PEs) encode the difference between expected and actual action outcomes in the brain via dopaminergic modulation. Integration of these learning signals ensures efficient behavioral adaptation. Obesity has recently been linked to altered dopaminergic fronto-striatal circuits, thus implying impairments in cognitive domains that rely on its integrity. 28 obese and 30 lean human participants performed an implicit stimulus-response learning paradigm inside an fMRI scanner. Computational modeling and psycho-physiological interaction (PPI) analysis was utilized for assessing PE-related learning and associated functional connectivity. We show that human obesity is associated with insufficient incorporation of negative PEs into behavioral adaptation even in a non-food context, suggesting differences in a fundamental neural learning mechanism. Obese subjects were less efficient in using negative PEs to improve implicit learning performance, despite proper coding of PEs in striatum. We further observed lower functional coupling between ventral striatum and supplementary motor area in obese subjects subsequent to negative PEs. Importantly, strength of functional coupling predicted task performance and negative PE utilization. These findings show that obesity is linked to insufficient behavioral adaptation specifically in response to negative PEs, and to associated alterations in function and connectivity within the fronto-striatal system. Recognition of neural differences as a central characteristic of obesity hopefully paves the way to rethink established intervention strategies: Differential behavioral sensitivity to negative and positive PEs should be considered when designing intervention programs. Measures relying on penalization of unwanted behavior may prove less effective in obese subjects than alternative approaches. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Predictive Value of Parkinsonian Primates in Pharmacologic Studies: A Comparison between the Macaque, Marmoset, and Squirrel Monkey.

    PubMed

    Veyres, Nicolas; Hamadjida, Adjia; Huot, Philippe

    2018-05-01

    The 1-methyl-4-phenyl-1,2,3,6-tetrahydropyridine (MPTP)-lesioned primate is the gold-standard animal model of Parkinson disease (PD) and has been used to assess the effectiveness of experimental drugs on dyskinesia, parkinsonism, and psychosis. Three species have been used in most studies-the macaque, marmoset, and squirrel monkey-the last much less so than the first two species; however, the predictive value of each species at forecasting clinical efficacy, or lack thereof, is poorly documented. Here, we have reviewed all the published literature detailing pharmacologic studies that assessed the effects of experimental drugs on dyskinesia, parkinsonism, and psychosis in each of these species and have calculated their predictive value of success and failure at the clinical level. We found that, for dyskinesia, the macaque has a positive predictive value of 87.5% and a false-positive rate of 38.1%, whereas the marmoset has a positive predictive value of 76.9% and a false-positive rate of 15.6%. For parkinsonism, the macaque has a positive predictive value of 68.2% and a false-positive rate of 44.4%, whereas the marmoset has a positive predictive value of 86.9% and a false-positive rate of 41.7%. No drug that alleviates psychosis in the clinic has shown efficacy at doing so in the macaque, whereas the marmoset has 100% positive predictive value. The small number of studies conducted in the squirrel monkey precluded us from calculating its predictive efficacy. We hope our results will help in the design of pharmacologic experiments and will facilitate the drug discovery and development process in PD. Copyright © 2018 by The American Society for Pharmacology and Experimental Therapeutics.

  9. Testing Small Variance Priors Using Prior-Posterior Predictive p Values.

    PubMed

    Hoijtink, Herbert; van de Schoot, Rens

    2017-04-03

    Muthén and Asparouhov (2012) propose to evaluate model fit in structural equation models based on approximate (using small variance priors) instead of exact equality of (combinations of) parameters to zero. This is an important development that adequately addresses Cohen's (1994) The Earth is Round (p < .05), which stresses that point null-hypotheses are so precise that small and irrelevant differences from the null-hypothesis may lead to their rejection. It is tempting to evaluate small variance priors using readily available approaches like the posterior predictive p value and the DIC. However, as will be shown, both are not suited for the evaluation of models based on small variance priors. In this article, a well behaving alternative, the prior-posterior predictive p value, will be introduced. It will be shown that it is consistent, the distributions under the null and alternative hypotheses will be elaborated, and it will be applied to testing whether the difference between 2 means and the size of a correlation are relevantly different from zero. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  10. Determination of the diagnostic value of the Modified Mallampati Score, Upper Lip Bite Test and Facial Angle in predicting difficult intubation: A prospective descriptive study.

    PubMed

    Mahmoodpoor, Ata; Soleimanpour, Hassan; Golzari, Samad Ej; Nejabatian, Arezoo; Pourlak, Tannaz; Amani, Masoumeh; Hajmohammadi, Saeed; Hosseinzadeh, Hamzeh; Esfanjani, Robab Mehdizadeh

    2017-02-01

    Difficult intubation is a significant cause of mortality and morbidity related to anesthesia. We decided to evaluate the value of Modified Mallampati Score, Upper Lip Bite Test and Facial Angle in the prediction of difficult intubation. In a prospective descriptive study, data from 132 patients who were candidates for elective maxillofacial surgeries under general anesthesia were gathered. Facial Angles were measured by a maxillofacial surgeon according to cephalometry. The Modified Mallampati Score and Upper Lip Bite Test were first measured by an anesthesiologist and then another anesthesiologist was assigned to record the Cormack and Lehane score during the intubation. Grades 3 and 4 were considered as difficult intubation. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and Youden index were calculated for all tests. Difficult intubation was reported in 12% of the patients. Facial Angle≤82.5° can predict difficult intubation with 87.5% sensitivity and 88.8% specificity. Among the three tests, a high Modified Mallampati Score had the highest specificity (94.5%) and a high Modified Mallampati Score and Facial Angle (FA≤82.5°) had the highest sensitivity (87.5%). The highest NPV, sensitivity and Youden index were observed when using Facial Angle with the Modified Mallampati Score or with Upper Lip Bite Test. Facial Angle has a high sensitivity, NPV and Youden index for the prediction of difficult intubation, but the best result is achieved when Facial Angle is used in combination with either the Modified Mallampati Score or Upper Lip Bit Test. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. The prognostic value of the hawkins sign and diagnostic value of MRI after talar neck fractures.

    PubMed

    Chen, Hao; Liu, Wenzhou; Deng, Lianfu; Song, Weidong

    2014-12-01

    The early diagnosis of avascular necrosis of the talus (AVN) and prediction of ankle function for talar fractures are important. The Hawkins sign, as a radiographic predictor, could exclude the possibility of developing ischemic bone necrosis after talar neck fractures, but its relationship with ankle function remains unclear. The purpose of this study was to illustrate the prognostic effect of the Hawkins sign on ankle function after talar neck fractures and to study the value of early MRI in detecting the AVN changes after talus fractures. Cases of talar neck fractures between November 2008 and November 2013 were evaluated. The occurrences of the Hawkins sign and AVN were studied. X-ray imaging was performed at multiple time points from the 4th to the 12th week after the fractures, and MRI examinations were used in the Hawkins sign negative group, with the time span ranging from 1.5 to 12 months. AOFAS scores of the Hawkins sign positive and negative groups were compared during the follow-up. Forty-four cases (48 feet) were evaluated. The occurrence of positive Hawkins sign was 50%, 30%, and 33.3%, the incidence of AVN was 0%, 10%, and 50%, respectively, in type I, type II, and type III and IV talus fractures, respectively. The AOFAS scores showed no statistically significant difference between Hawkins sign positive group and negative group in type I and II fractures. The Hawkins sign positive group had better AOFAS scores than the negative group in type III and IV fractures. However, there was no statistically significant difference between Hawkins sign positive and negative groups when AVN cases were excluded in type III and IV fractures. The Hawkins sign was a reliable predictor excluding the possibility of AVN. It did not have predictive value on the ankle function in low-energy fractures and may predict better ankle function in high-energy fractures. MRI can diagnose AVN during an earlier period, and we believe Hawkins sign negative patients should undergo

  12. [Value of ultrasonography to predict the endometrial cancer in postmenopausal bleeding].

    PubMed

    Bouzid, A; Ayachi, A; Mourali, M

    2015-10-01

    To build mathematical models for evaluating the individual risk of endometrial malignancy in women with postmenopausal bleeding and a thick endometrium using clinical data, sonographic endometrial thickness and power Doppler ultrasound findings. A total of 117 patients underwent transvaginal two-dimensional gray-scale and power Doppler ultrasound examination of the endometrium before getting endometrial biopsy. Inclusion criteria were post-menopausal bleeding and a thick endometrium greater than 5mm. The ultrasound image showing the most vascularized section through the endometrium as assessed by power Doppler was frozen to estimate endometrial thickness and features. The vascularity index was calculated using computer software. A structured history was taken to collect clinical information. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to create mathematical models to predict endometrial malignancy. There were 31 (26.4%) malignant and 86 (74.6%) benign endometria… Women with a malignant endometrium were older (median age 61 vs 56 years, P=0.036) and had a thicker endometrium (median thickness 18.8mm vs 12.5; P=0.002) and higher values for vascularity index. When using only clinical data to build a model for estimating the risk of endometrial malignancy, a model including the variables age had the largest area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUC), with a value of 0.69 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.59-0.79). A model including age and endometrial thickness had an AUC of 0.72 (95% CI, 0.50-0.96), and one including age, endometrial thickness and vascularity index had an AUC of 0.91 (95% CI, 0.62-0.97). Using a risk cut-off of 12%, the latter model had sensitivity 89%, specificity 74%, positive likelihood ratio 3.42 and negative likelihood ratio 0.14. Postmenopausal bleeding is a frequent cause of consultation in gynecological particularly in peri- or post-menopausal period. They are the main alarm sign of endometrial carcinoma. Vaginal

  13. Predictive and prognostic value of PET/CT imaging post-chemoradiotherapy and clinical decision-making consequences in locally advanced head & neck squamous cell carcinoma: a retrospective study.

    PubMed

    Kim, Ryul; Ock, Chan-Young; Keam, Bhumsuk; Kim, Tae Min; Kim, Jin Ho; Paeng, Jin Chul; Kwon, Seong Keun; Hah, J Hun; Kwon, Tack-Kyun; Kim, Dong-Wan; Wu, Hong-Gyun; Sung, Myung-Whun; Heo, Dae Seog

    2016-02-17

    The accuracy of (18)F-fluorodeoxygluocose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) in predicting immediate failure after radical chemoradiotherapy (CRT) for HNSCC is poorly characterized at present. The purpose of this study was to examine PET/CT as a predictive and prognostic gauge of immediate failure after CRT and determine the impact of these studies on clinical decision making in terms of salvage surgery. Medical records of 78 consecutive patients receiving radical CRT for locally advanced HNSCC were reviewed, analyzing PET/CTs done before and 3 months after CRT. Immediate failure was defined as residual disease or locoregional and/or systemic relapse within 6 months after CRT. Maximum standard uptake value (SUV) of post CRT PET/CT (postSUVmax) was found optimal for predicting immediate failure at a cutpoint of 4.4. Sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value (NPV), and positive predictive value (PPV) were 90.0%, 83.8%, 98.3%, and 45.0%, respectively. Of 78 patients studied, postSUVmax ≥ 4.4 prevailed in 20 (25.6%), with postSUVmax <4.4 in 58 (74.4%). At postSUVmax ≥ 4.4 (vs. postSUVmax <4.4) OS was poorer by comparison (3-year OS: 56.9 vs. 87.7%; P = 0.005), as was progression-free survival (3-year PFS: 42.9 vs. 81.1%; P < 0.001). At postSUVmax ≥ 4.4, OS with and without immediate salvage surgery did not differ significantly (3-year OS: 60.0 vs. 55.6%; Log-rank P = 0.913). Post CRT PET/CT imaging has prognostic value in terms of OS and PFS and is useful in predicting immediate therapeutic failure, given its high NPV. However, OS was not significantly altered by early salvage surgery done on the basis of post CRT PET/CT findings.

  14. Keratin 17 is overexpressed and predicts poor survival in estrogen receptor-negative/human epidermal growth factor receptor-2-negative breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Merkin, Ross D; Vanner, Elizabeth A; Romeiser, Jamie L; Shroyer, A Laurie W; Escobar-Hoyos, Luisa F; Li, Jinyu; Powers, Robert S; Burke, Stephanie; Shroyer, Kenneth R

    2017-04-01

    Clinicopathological features of breast cancer have limited accuracy to predict survival. By immunohistochemistry (IHC), keratin 17 (K17) expression has been correlated with triple-negative status (estrogen receptor [ER]/progesterone receptor/human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 [HER2] negative) and decreased survival, but K17 messenger RNA (mRNA) expression has not been evaluated in breast cancer. K17 is a potential prognostic cancer biomarker, targeting p27, and driving cell cycle progression. This study compared K17 protein and mRNA expression to ER/progesterone receptor/HER2 receptor status and event-free survival. K17 IHC was performed on 164 invasive breast cancers and K17 mRNA was evaluated in 1097 breast cancers. The mRNA status of other keratins (16/14/9) was evaluated in 113 ER - /HER2 - ductal carcinomas. IHC demonstrated intense cytoplasmic and membranous K17 localization in myoepithelial cells of benign ducts and lobules and tumor cells of ductal carcinoma in situ. In ductal carcinomas, K17 protein was detected in most triple-negative tumors (28/34, 82%), some non-triple-negative tumors (52/112, 46%), but never in lobular carcinomas (0/15). In ductal carcinomas, high K17 mRNA was associated with reduced 5-year event-free survival in advanced tumor stage (n = 149, hazard ratio [HR] = 3.68, P = .018), and large (n = 73, HR = 3.95, P = .047), triple-negative (n = 103, HR = 2.73, P = .073), and ER - /HER2 - (n = 113, HR = 2.99, P = .049) tumors. There were significant correlations among keratins 17, 16, 14, and 9 mRNA levels suggesting these keratins (all encoded on chromosome 17) could be coordinately expressed in breast cancer. Thus, K17 is expressed in a subset of triple-negative breast cancers, and is a marker of poor prognosis in patients with advanced stage and ER - /HER2 - breast cancer. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Autocorrelation structure at rest predicts value correlates of single neurons during reward-guided choice

    PubMed Central

    Cavanagh, Sean E; Wallis, Joni D; Kennerley, Steven W; Hunt, Laurence T

    2016-01-01

    Correlates of value are routinely observed in the prefrontal cortex (PFC) during reward-guided decision making. In previous work (Hunt et al., 2015), we argued that PFC correlates of chosen value are a consequence of varying rates of a dynamical evidence accumulation process. Yet within PFC, there is substantial variability in chosen value correlates across individual neurons. Here we show that this variability is explained by neurons having different temporal receptive fields of integration, indexed by examining neuronal spike rate autocorrelation structure whilst at rest. We find that neurons with protracted resting temporal receptive fields exhibit stronger chosen value correlates during choice. Within orbitofrontal cortex, these neurons also sustain coding of chosen value from choice through the delivery of reward, providing a potential neural mechanism for maintaining predictions and updating stored values during learning. These findings reveal that within PFC, variability in temporal specialisation across neurons predicts involvement in specific decision-making computations. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.18937.001 PMID:27705742

  16. Fast and simultaneous prediction of animal feed nutritive values using near infrared reflectance spectroscopy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Samadi; Wajizah, S.; Munawar, A. A.

    2018-02-01

    Feed plays an important factor in animal production. The purpose of this study is to apply NIRS method in determining feed values. NIRS spectra data were acquired for feed samples in wavelength range of 1000 - 2500 nm with 32 scans and 0.2 nm wavelength. Spectral data were corrected by de-trending (DT) and standard normal variate (SNV) methods. Prediction of in vitro dry matter digestibility (IVDMD) and in vitro organic matter digestibility (IVOMD) were established as model by using principal component regression (PCR) and validated using leave one out cross validation (LOOCV). Prediction performance was quantified using coefficient correlation (r) and residual predictive deviation (RPD) index. The results showed that IVDMD and IVOMD can be predicted by using SNV spectra data with r and RPD index: 0.93 and 2.78 for IVDMD ; 0.90 and 2.35 for IVOMD respectively. In conclusion, NIRS technique appears feasible to predict animal feed nutritive values.

  17. [Serum PTH levels as a predictive factor of hypocalcaemia after total thyroidectomy].

    PubMed

    Díez Alonso, Manuel; Sánchez López, José Daniel; Sánchez-Seco Peña, María Isabel; Ratia Jiménez, Tomás; Arribas Gómez, Ignacio; Rodríguez Pascual, Angel; Martín-Duce, Antonio; Guadalix Hidalgo, Gregorio; Hernández Domínguez, Sara; Granell Vicent, Javier

    2009-02-01

    Postoperative parathyroid hormone (PTH) levels as a predictor of hypocalcaemia in patients subjected to total thyroidectomy is analyzed. Prospective study involving 67 patients who underwent total thyroidectomy due to a benign disease. Serum PTH and ionised calcium were measured 20 h after surgery. Sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of PTH and ionised calcium levels were calculated to predict clinical and analytical hypocalcaemia. A total of 42 (62.7%) patients developed hypocalcaemia (ionised calcium<0.95 mmol/l), but only 20 (29.9%) presented with symptoms. PTH concentration the day after surgery was significantly lower in the group that developed symptomatic hypocalcaemia (5.57+/-6.4 pg/ml) than in the asymptomatic (21.5+/-15.3 pg/ml) or normocalcaemic (26.8+/-24.9 pg/ml) groups (p=0.001). Taking the value of 13 pg/ml as a cut-off point of PTH levels, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 54%, 72%, 76% and 48%, respectively. On the other hand, sensitivity for predicting symptomatic hypocalcaemia was 95% and specificity was 76%. The test showed a high incidence of false positives (11/30, 36%). Negative predictive value was 97% and positive predictive value was 65%. In multivariate analysis, PTH and ionised calcium were the only perioperative factors that showed an independent predictive value as risk indicators of symptomatic hypocalcaemia. Normal PTH levels 20 h after surgery practically rule out the subsequent appearance of hypocalcaemia symptoms. On the other hand, low PTH levels are not necessarily associated to symptomatic hypocalcaemia due to the high number of false positives.

  18. Relationships between social competence, psychopathology and work performance and their predictive value for vocational rehabilitation of schizophrenic outpatients.

    PubMed

    Hoffmann, H; Kupper, Z

    1997-01-17

    Earlier studies suggest that social competence has a higher predictive value for vocational outcome than psychopathology. These studies, however, show methodological shortcomings, including the fact that the instruments used for assessing social competence, psychopathology and work performance are strongly interrelated. The present study, involving a population of 34 chronically schizophrenic outpatients enrolled in a vocational rehabilitation program, was conducted in order to determine: (1) how closely the Role Play Test, the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale and the Work Behavior Assessment Scale are related to each other; and (2) whether social competence is a better predictor of work performance and outcome of vocational rehabilitation than psychopathology. Factor analysis has revealed that the instruments are interrelated, mainly in the dimensions of negative symptoms, social relationships, non-verbal measures of social competence and conceptual disorganization. In backward regression analyses, psychopathological indicators proved to be the best predictors of work performance both cross-sectionally as well as in the longterm course. In the traditional two-syndrome model of schizophrenic psychopathology only negative symptoms were left in the regression model. In a four-dimension model the disorder of relating and the conceptual disorganization dimension were the best predictors. Differences between disorder of relating and social competence, assessed by the Role Play Test, are discussed here as well as the implications of this study for rehabilitation.

  19. Using the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) to Define Different Domains of Negative Symptoms

    PubMed Central

    Khan, Anzalee; Keefe, Richard S. E.

    2017-01-01

    Background: Reduced emotional experience and expression are two domains of negative symptoms. The authors assessed these two domains of negative symptoms using previously developed Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) factors. Using an existing dataset, the authors predicted three different elements of everyday functioning (social, vocational, and everyday activities) with these two factors, as well as with performance on measures of functional capacity. Methods: A large (n=630) sample of people with schizophrenia was used as the data source of this study. Using regression analyses, the authors predicted the three different aspects of everyday functioning, first with just the two Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale factors and then with a global negative symptom factor. Finally, we added neurocognitive performance and functional capacity as predictors. Results: The Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale reduced emotional experience factor accounted for 21 percent of the variance in everyday social functioning, while reduced emotional expression accounted for no variance. The total Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale negative symptom factor accounted for less variance (19%) than the reduced experience factor alone. The Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale expression factor accounted for, at most, one percent of the variance in any of the functional outcomes, with or without the addition of other predictors. Implications: Reduced emotional experience measured with the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale, often referred to as “avolition and anhedonia,” specifically predicted impairments in social outcomes. Further, reduced experience predicted social impairments better than emotional expression or the total Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale negative symptom factor. In this cross-sectional study, reduced emotional experience was specifically related with social outcomes, accounting for essentially no variance in work or everyday activities, and being

  20. The predictive value of quantitative DCE metrics for immediate therapeutic response of high-intensity focused ultrasound ablation (HIFU) of symptomatic uterine fibroids.

    PubMed

    Wei, Chao; Fang, Xin; Wang, Chuan-Bin; Chen, Yu; Xu, Xiao; Dong, Jiang-Ning

    2017-12-04

    The aim of this study was to investigate the value of quantitative DCE-MRI parameters for predicting the immediate non-perfused volume ratio (NPVR) of HIFU therapy in the treatment of symptomatic uterine fibroids. A total of 78 symptomatic uterine fibroids in 65 female patients were treated with US-HIFU therapy. All patients underwent conventional MRI and DCE-MRI scans 1 day before and 3 days after HIFU treatment. Permeability parameters K trans , K ep , V e , and V p and T1 perfusion parameters BF and BV of pretreatment were measured as a baseline, while NPVR was used to assess immediate ablation efficiency. Data were assigned to NPVR ≧ 70% and NPVR < 70% groups. Then, the predictive performances of different parameters for ablation efficacy were studied to seek the optimal cut-off value, and the length of time to calculate the variable parameters in each case was recorded. (1) It was observed that the pretreatment K trans , K ep , V e , and BF values of the NPVR ≧ 70% group were significantly lower compared to the NPVR < 70% group (p < 0.05). (2) The immediate NPVR was negatively correlated with the K trans , BF, and BV values before HIFU treatment (r = - 0.561, - 0.712, and - 0.528, respectively, p < 0.05 for all). (3) The AUCs of pretreatment K trans , BF, BV values, and K trans combined with BF used to predict the immediate NPVR were 0.810, 0.909, 0.795, and 0.922, respectively (p < 0.05 for all). (4) The mean time to calculate the variable parameters in each case was 7.5 min. Higher K trans , BF, and BV values at baseline DCE-MRI suggested a poor ablation efficacy of HIFU therapy for symptomatic uterine fibroids, while the pretreatment DCE-MRI parameters could be useful biomarkers for predicting the ablation efficacy in select cases. The software used to calculate DCE-MRI parameters was simpler, quicker, and easier to incorporate into clinical practice.

  1. Predictive values of BI-RADS(®) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in the detection of breast ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS).

    PubMed

    Badan, Gustavo Machado; Piato, Sebastião; Roveda, Décio; de Faria Castro Fleury, Eduardo

    2016-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate BI-RADS indicators in the detection of DCIS by MRI. Prospective observational study that started in 2014 and lasted 24 months. A total of 110 consecutive patients were evaluated, who presented with suspicious or highly suspicious microcalcifications on screening mammography (BI-RADS categories 4 and 5) and underwent stereotactic-guided breast biopsy, having had an MRI scan performed prior to biopsy. Altogether, 38 cases were characterized as positive for malignancy, of which 25 were DCIS and 13 were invasive ductal carcinoma cases. MRI had a sensitivity of 96%; specificity of 75.67%; positive predictive value (PPV) for DCIS detection of 57.14%; negative predictive value (NPV) in the detection of DCIS of 98.24%; and an accuracy of 80.80%. BI-RADS as a tool for the detection of DCIS by MRI is a powerful instrument whose sensitivity was higher when compared to that observed for mammography in the literature. Likewise, the PPV obtained by MRI was higher than that observed in the present study for mammography, and the high NPV obtained on MRI scans can provide early evidence to discourage breast biopsy in selected cases. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Procalcitonin levels in gram-positive, gram-negative, and fungal bloodstream infections.

    PubMed

    Leli, Christian; Ferranti, Marta; Moretti, Amedeo; Al Dhahab, Zainab Salim; Cenci, Elio; Mencacci, Antonella

    2015-01-01

    Procalcitonin (PCT) can discriminate bacterial from viral systemic infections and true bacteremia from contaminated blood cultures. The aim of this study was to evaluate PCT diagnostic accuracy in discriminating Gram-positive, Gram-negative, and fungal bloodstream infections. A total of 1,949 samples from patients with suspected bloodstream infections were included in the study. Median PCT value in Gram-negative (13.8 ng/mL, interquartile range (IQR) 3.4-44.1) bacteremias was significantly higher than in Gram-positive (2.1 ng/mL, IQR 0.6-7.6) or fungal (0.5 ng/mL, IQR 0.4-1) infections (P < 0.0001). Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed an area under the curve (AUC) for PCT of 0.765 (95% CI 0.725-0.805, P < 0.0001) in discriminating Gram-negatives from Gram-positives at the best cut-off value of 10.8 ng/mL and an AUC of 0.944 (95% CI 0.919-0.969, P < 0.0001) in discriminating Gram-negatives from fungi at the best cut-off of 1.6 ng/mL. Additional results showed a significant difference in median PCT values between Enterobacteriaceae and nonfermentative Gram-negative bacteria (17.1 ng/mL, IQR 5.9-48.5 versus 3.5 ng/mL, IQR 0.8-21.5; P < 0.0001). This study suggests that PCT may be of value to distinguish Gram-negative from Gram-positive and fungal bloodstream infections. Nevertheless, its utility to predict different microorganisms needs to be assessed in further studies.

  3. The diagnostic value of interleukin-6 and interleukin-8 for early prediction of bacteremia and sepsis in children with febrile neutropenia and cancer.

    PubMed

    Urbonas, Vincas; Eidukaitė, Audronė; Tamulienė, Indrė

    2012-03-01

    Early diagnosis of sepsis in children with febrile neutropenia and cancer still remains a challenge for modern medicine because of lack of specific laboratory markers and clinical signs especially at the beginning of the infection. The objective of this study was to evaluate the ability of interleukin-6 and interleukin-8 to predict bacteremia and sepsis during the first 2 days in oncohematologic patients with febrile neutropenia. A total of 61 febrile neutropenic episodes in 37 children were studied. Serum samples were collected on day 1 and day 2 from the onset of fever and analyzed using an automated random access analyzer. Neutropenic children with febrile episodes were classified into the following 2 groups: (1) fever of unknown origin group--patients with a negative blood culture--and (2) bacteremia/sepsis group--patients with a positive blood culture or clinical sepsis. High negative predictive values were found on day 1 for interleukin-6 and interleukin-8 (89% and 82%, respectively) for exclusion of bacteremia/sepsis. These interleukins could be used as a screening tool for the rejection of sepsis or bacteremia on the first day of fever in neutropenic children with cancer.

  4. Impact of sleep quality on amygdala reactivity, negative affect, and perceived stress.

    PubMed

    Prather, Aric A; Bogdan, Ryan; Hariri, Ahmad R

    2013-05-01

    Research demonstrates a negative impact of sleep disturbance on mood and affect; however, the biological mechanisms mediating these links are poorly understood. Amygdala reactivity to negative stimuli has emerged as one potential pathway. Here, we investigate the influence of self-reported sleep quality on associations between threat-related amygdala reactivity and measures of negative affect and perceived stress. Analyses on data from 299 participants (125 men, 50.5% white, mean [standard deviation] age = 19.6 [1.3] years) who completed the Duke Neurogenetics Study were conducted. Participants completed several self-report measures of negative affect and perceived stress. Threat-related (i.e., angry and fearful facial expressions) amygdala reactivity was assayed using blood oxygen level-dependent functional magnetic resonance imaging. Global sleep quality was assessed using the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index. Amygdala reactivity to fearful facial expressions predicted greater depressive symptoms and higher perceived stress in poor (β values = 0.18-1.86, p values < .05) but not good sleepers (β values = -0.13 to -0.01, p values > .05). In sex-specific analyses, men reporting poorer global sleep quality showed a significant association between amygdala reactivity and levels of depression and perceived stress (β values = 0.29-0.44, p values < .05). In contrast, no significant associations were observed in men reporting good global sleep quality or in women, irrespective of sleep quality. This study provides novel evidence that self-reported sleep quality moderates the relationships between amygdala reactivity, negative affect, and perceived stress, particularly among men.

  5. Medico-economic impact of MSKCC non-sentinel node prediction nomogram for ER-positive HER2-negative breast cancers.

    PubMed

    Bonsang-Kitzis, Hélène; Mouttet-Boizat, Delphine; Guillot, Eugénie; Feron, Jean-Guillaume; Fourchotte, Virginie; Alran, Séverine; Pierga, Jean-Yves; Cottu, Paul; Lerebours, Florence; Stevens, Denise; Vincent-Salomon, Anne; Sigal-Zafrani, Brigitte; Campana, François; Rouzier, Roman; Reyal, Fabien

    2017-01-01

    Avoiding axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) for invasive breast cancers with isolated tumor cells or micrometastatic sentinel node biopsy (SNB) could decrease morbidity with minimal clinical significance. The aim of this study is to simulate the medico-economic impact of the routine use of the MSKCC non-sentinel node (NSN) prediction nomogram for ER+ HER2- breast cancer patients. We studied 1036 ER+ HER2- breast cancer patients with a metastatic SNB. All had a complementary ALND. For each patient, we calculated the probability of the NSN positivity using the MSKCC nomogram. After validation of this nomogram in the population, we described how the patients' characteristics spread as the threshold value changed. Then, we performed an economic simulation study to estimate the total cost of caring for patients treated according to the MSKCC predictive nomogram results. A 0.3 threshold discriminate the type of sentinel node (SN) metastases: 98.8% of patients with pN0(i+) and 91.6% of patients with pN1(mic) had a MSKCC score under 0.3 (false negative rate = 6.4%). If we use the 0.3 threshold for economic simulation, 43% of ALND could be avoided, reducing the costs of caring by 1 051 980 EUROS among the 1036 patients. We demonstrated the cost-effectiveness of using the MSKCC NSN prediction nomogram by avoiding ALND for the pN0(i+) or pN1(mic) ER+ HER2- breast cancer patients with a MSKCC score of less than or equal to 0.3.

  6. Medico-economic impact of MSKCC non-sentinel node prediction nomogram for ER-positive HER2-negative breast cancers

    PubMed Central

    Guillot, Eugénie; Feron, Jean-Guillaume; Fourchotte, Virginie; Alran, Séverine; Pierga, Jean-Yves; Cottu, Paul; Lerebours, Florence; Stevens, Denise; Vincent-Salomon, Anne; Sigal-Zafrani, Brigitte; Campana, François; Rouzier, Roman; Reyal, Fabien

    2017-01-01

    Background Avoiding axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) for invasive breast cancers with isolated tumor cells or micrometastatic sentinel node biopsy (SNB) could decrease morbidity with minimal clinical significance. Purpose The aim of this study is to simulate the medico-economic impact of the routine use of the MSKCC non-sentinel node (NSN) prediction nomogram for ER+ HER2- breast cancer patients. Methods We studied 1036 ER+ HER2- breast cancer patients with a metastatic SNB. All had a complementary ALND. For each patient, we calculated the probability of the NSN positivity using the MSKCC nomogram. After validation of this nomogram in the population, we described how the patients’ characteristics spread as the threshold value changed. Then, we performed an economic simulation study to estimate the total cost of caring for patients treated according to the MSKCC predictive nomogram results. Results A 0.3 threshold discriminate the type of sentinel node (SN) metastases: 98.8% of patients with pN0(i+) and 91.6% of patients with pN1(mic) had a MSKCC score under 0.3 (false negative rate = 6.4%). If we use the 0.3 threshold for economic simulation, 43% of ALND could be avoided, reducing the costs of caring by 1 051 980 EUROS among the 1036 patients. Conclusion We demonstrated the cost-effectiveness of using the MSKCC NSN prediction nomogram by avoiding ALND for the pN0(i+) or pN1(mic) ER+ HER2- breast cancer patients with a MSKCC score of less than or equal to 0.3. PMID:28241044

  7. The Predicted Influence of Climate Change on Lesser Prairie-Chicken Reproductive Parameters

    PubMed Central

    Grisham, Blake A.; Boal, Clint W.; Haukos, David A.; Davis, Dawn M.; Boydston, Kathy K.; Dixon, Charles; Heck, Willard R.

    2013-01-01

    The Southern High Plains is anticipated to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change. These changes may influence the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) in positive or negative ways. We assessed the potential changes in clutch size, incubation start date, and nest survival for lesser prairie-chickens for the years 2050 and 2080 based on modeled predictions of climate change and reproductive data for lesser prairie-chickens from 2001–2011 on the Southern High Plains of Texas and New Mexico. We developed 9 a priori models to assess the relationship between reproductive parameters and biologically relevant weather conditions. We selected weather variable(s) with the most model support and then obtained future predicted values from climatewizard.org. We conducted 1,000 simulations using each reproductive parameter’s linear equation obtained from regression calculations, and the future predicted value for each weather variable to predict future reproductive parameter values for lesser prairie-chickens. There was a high degree of model uncertainty for each reproductive value. Winter temperature had the greatest effect size for all three parameters, suggesting a negative relationship between above-average winter temperature and reproductive output. The above-average winter temperatures are correlated to La Niña events, which negatively affect lesser prairie-chickens through resulting drought conditions. By 2050 and 2080, nest survival was predicted to be below levels considered viable for population persistence; however, our assessment did not consider annual survival of adults, chick survival, or the positive benefit of habitat management and conservation, which may ultimately offset the potentially negative effect of drought on nest survival. PMID:23874549

  8. The predicted influence of climate change on lesser prairie-chicken reproductive parameters.

    PubMed

    Grisham, Blake A; Boal, Clint W; Haukos, David A; Davis, Dawn M; Boydston, Kathy K; Dixon, Charles; Heck, Willard R

    2013-01-01

    The Southern High Plains is anticipated to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change. These changes may influence the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) in positive or negative ways. We assessed the potential changes in clutch size, incubation start date, and nest survival for lesser prairie-chickens for the years 2050 and 2080 based on modeled predictions of climate change and reproductive data for lesser prairie-chickens from 2001-2011 on the Southern High Plains of Texas and New Mexico. We developed 9 a priori models to assess the relationship between reproductive parameters and biologically relevant weather conditions. We selected weather variable(s) with the most model support and then obtained future predicted values from climatewizard.org. We conducted 1,000 simulations using each reproductive parameter's linear equation obtained from regression calculations, and the future predicted value for each weather variable to predict future reproductive parameter values for lesser prairie-chickens. There was a high degree of model uncertainty for each reproductive value. Winter temperature had the greatest effect size for all three parameters, suggesting a negative relationship between above-average winter temperature and reproductive output. The above-average winter temperatures are correlated to La Niña events, which negatively affect lesser prairie-chickens through resulting drought conditions. By 2050 and 2080, nest survival was predicted to be below levels considered viable for population persistence; however, our assessment did not consider annual survival of adults, chick survival, or the positive benefit of habitat management and conservation, which may ultimately offset the potentially negative effect of drought on nest survival.

  9. Prediction of major complications after hepatectomy using liver stiffness values determined by magnetic resonance elastography.

    PubMed

    Sato, N; Kenjo, A; Kimura, T; Okada, R; Ishigame, T; Kofunato, Y; Shimura, T; Abe, K; Ohira, H; Marubashi, S

    2018-04-23

    Liver fibrosis is a risk factor for hepatectomy but cannot be determined accurately before hepatectomy because diagnostic procedures are too invasive. Magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) can determine liver stiffness (LS), a surrogate marker for assessing liver fibrosis, non-invasively. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the LS value determined by MRE is predictive of major complications after hepatectomy. This prospective study enrolled consecutive patients who underwent hepatic resection between April 2013 and August 2016. LS values were measured by imaging shear waves by MRE in the liver before hepatectomy. The primary endpoint was major complications, defined as Clavien-Dindo grade IIIa or above. Logistic regression analysis identified independent predictive factors, from which a logistic model to estimate the probability of major complications was constructed. A total of 96 patients were included in the study. Major complications were observed in 15 patients (16 per cent). Multivariable logistic analysis confirmed that higher LS value (P = 0·021) and serum albumin level (P = 0·009) were independent predictive factors for major complications after hepatectomy. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis showed that the best LS cut-off value was 4·3 kPa for detecting major complications, comparable to liver fibrosis grade F4, with a sensitivity of 80 per cent and specificity of 82 per cent. A logistic model using the LS value and serum albumin level to estimate the probability of major complications was constructed; the area under the ROC curve for predicting major complications was 0·84. The LS value determined by MRE in patients undergoing hepatectomy was an independent predictive factor for major complications. © 2018 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Negative HPV screening test predicts low cervical cancer risk better than negative Pap test

    Cancer.gov

    Based on a study that included more than 1 million women, investigators at NCI have determined that a negative test for HPV infection compared to a negative Pap test provides greater safety, or assurance, against future risk of cervical cancer.

  11. Reproducibility and predictive value of scoring stromal tumour infiltrating lymphocytes in triple-negative breast cancer: a multi-institutional study.

    PubMed

    O'Loughlin, Mark; Andreu, Xavier; Bianchi, Simonetta; Chemielik, Ewa; Cordoba, Alicia; Cserni, Gábor; Figueiredo, Paulo; Floris, Giuseppe; Foschini, Maria P; Heikkilä, Päivi; Kulka, Janina; Liepniece-Karele, Inta; Regitnig, Peter; Reiner, Angelika; Ryska, Ales; Sapino, Anna; Shalaby, Aliaa; Stovgaard, Elisabeth Specht; Quinn, Cecily; Walsh, Elaine M; Zolota, Vicky; Glynn, Sharon A; Callagy, Grace

    2018-05-17

    Several studies have demonstrated a prognostic role for stromal tumour infiltrating lymphocytes (sTILs) in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). The reproducibility of scoring sTILs is variable with potentially excellent concordance being achievable using a software tool. We examined agreement between breast pathologists across Europe scoring sTILs on H&E-stained sections without software, an approach that is easily applied in clinical practice. The association between sTILs and response to anthracycline-taxane NACT was also examined. Pathologists from the European Working Group for Breast Screening Pathology scored sTILs in 84 slides from 75 TNBCs using the immune-oncology biomarker working group guidance in two circulations. There were 16 participants in the first and 19 in the second circulation. Moderate agreement was achieved for absolute sTILs scores (intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) = 0.683, 95% CI 0.601-0.767, p-value < 0.001). Agreement was less when a 25% threshold was used (ICC 0.509, 95% CI 0.416-0.614, p-value < 0.001) and for lymphocyte predominant breast cancer (LPBC) (ICC 0.504, 95% CI 0.412-0.610, p-value < 0.001). Intra-observer agreement was strong for absolute sTIL values (Spearman ρ = 0.727); fair for sTILs ≥ 25% (κ = 0.53) and for LPBC (κ = 0.49), but poor for sTILs as 10% increments (κ = 0.24). Increasing sTILs was significantly associated with an increased likelihood of a pathological complete response (pCR) on multivariable analysis. Increasing sTILs in TNBCs improves the likelihood of a pCR. However, inter-observer agreement is such that H&E-based assessment is not sufficiently reproducible for clinical application. Other methodologies should be explored, but may be at the cost of ease of application.

  12. Ruminative self-focus, negative life events, and negative affect

    PubMed Central

    Moberly, Nicholas J.; Watkins, Edward R.

    2008-01-01

    Ruminative thinking is believed to exacerbate the psychological distress that follows stressful life events. An experience-sampling study was conducted in which participants recorded negative life events, ruminative self-focus, and negative affect eight times daily over one week. Occasions when participants reported a negative event were marked by higher levels of negative affect. Additionally, negative events were prospectively associated with higher levels of negative affect at the next sampling occasion, and this relationship was partially mediated by momentary ruminative self-focus. Depressive symptoms were associated with more frequent negative events, but not with increased reactivity to negative events. Trait rumination was associated with reports of more severe negative events and increased reactivity to negative events. These results suggest that the extent to which a person engages in ruminative self-focus after everyday stressors is an important determinant of the degree of distress experienced after such events. Further, dispositional measures of rumination predict mood reactivity to everyday stressors in a non-clinical sample. PMID:18684437

  13. Value of Surgery In Patients With Negative Imaging And Sporadic Zollinger-Ellison Syndrome (ZES)

    PubMed Central

    Norton, Jeffrey A.; Fraker, Douglas L.; Alexander, H. Richard; Jensen, Robert T

    2012-01-01

    Objectives To address the value of surgery in sporadic Zollinger-Ellison syndrome (ZES) patients with negative imaging studies. Background Medical control of acid hypersecretion in patients with sporadic Zollinger-Ellison syndrome (ZES) is highly effective. This has led to these patients frequently not sent to surgery, especially if preoperative imaging studies are negative, due in large part because almost no data exists on the success of surgery in this group. Methods 58 prospectively studied sporadic ZES patients (17% of total studied) had negative imaging studies and their surgical outcome was compared to 117 patients with positive imaging results. Results 35 patients had negative imaging in the pre-somatostatin receptor scintigraphy era (SRS) and 23 in the post-SRS era. The image negative patients had long disease histories prior to surgery (mean±SEM, from onset=7.9±1[range −0.25-35 yrs]) and 25% were followed ≥2yrs from diagnosis. At surgery, gastrinoma was found in 57/58 patients (98%). Tumors were small (mean=0.8cm, 60% < 1 cm). The most common primary sites were: duodenal 64%, pancreatic 17%, and lymph node (LN)(10%). 50% had a primary only, 41% primary + LN, and 7% had liver metastases. 35/58(60%) were cured immediately postoperatively and at last follow-up [mean-9.4yrs, range 0.2-22yrs], 27 patients (46%) remained cured. During follow-up 3 patients died, each was found to have liver metastases at surgery. In comparison to the image positive patients, those with negative imaging had lower preop fasting gastrin levels; a longer delay prior to surgery; more frequently had a small duodenal tumors; less frequently had a pancreatic tumor, multiple tumors or developed a new lesion postoperatively and had a longer survival. Conclusions Imaging negative sporadic ZES patients are not rare even in the post-SRS period. An experienced surgeon can find gastrinoma in almost every patient (98%) and nearly one-half (46%) are cured, a rate similar to imaging

  14. The Socialization of Culturally Related Values and Prosocial Tendencies among Mexican American Adolescents

    PubMed Central

    Knight, George P.; Carlo, Gustavo; Mahrer, Nicole E.; Davis, Alexandra N.

    2016-01-01

    The socialization of cultural values, ethnic identity, and prosocial behaviors is examined in a sample of 749 Mexican American adolescents [age 9–12 at the 5th grade; M(SD) = 10.42(.55); 49% female], their mothers, and fathers at the 5th, 7th and 10th grades. Parents’ familism values positively predicted their ethnic socialization practices. Mothers’ ethnic socialization positively predicted adolescents’ ethnic identity, which positively predicted adolescents’ familism. Familism was associated with several types of prosocial tendencies. Adolescents’ material success and personal achievement values were negatively associated with altruistic helping and positively associated with public helping, but not their parents’ corresponding values. Findings support cultural socialization models, asserting that parents’ traditional cultural values influence their socialization practices, youth cultural values, and youth prosocial behaviors. PMID:28262940

  15. Childhood adversity predicts reduced physiological flexibility during the processing of negative affect among adolescents with major depression histories.

    PubMed

    Daches, Shimrit; Kovacs, Maria; George, Charles J; Yaroslavsky, Ilya; Kiss, Eniko; Vetró, Ágnes; Dochnal, Roberta; Benák, István; Baji, Ildikó; Halas, Kitti; Makai, Attila; Kapornai, Krisztina; Rottenberg, Jonathan

    2017-11-01

    Adversity during early development has been shown to have enduring negative physiological consequences. In turn, atypical physiological functioning has been associated with maladaptive processing of negative affect, including its regulation. The present study therefore explored whether exposure to adverse life events in childhood predicted maladaptive (less flexible) parasympathetic nervous system functioning during the processing of negative affect among adolescents with depression histories. An initially clinic-referred, pediatric sample (N=189) was assessed at two time points. At Time 1, when subjects were 10.17years old (SD=1.42), on average, and were depressed, parents reported on adverse life events the offspring experienced up to that point. At Time 2, when subjects were 17.18years old (SD=1.28), and were remitted from depression, parents again reported on adverse life events in their offspring's lives for the interim period. At time 2, subjects' parasympathetic nervous system functioning (quantified as respiratory sinus arrhythmia) also was assessed at rest, during sad mood induction, and during instructed mood repair. Extent of adverse life events experienced by T1 (but not events occurring between T1 and T2) predicted less flexible RSA functioning 7years later during the processing of negative affect. Adolescents with more extensive early life adversities exhibited less vagal withdrawal following negative mood induction and tended to show less physiological recovery following mood repair. Early adversities appear to be associated with less flexible physiological regulatory control during negative affect experience, when measured later in development. Stress-related autonomic dysfunction in vulnerable youths may contribute to the unfavorable clinical prognosis associated with juvenile-onset depression. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Cross-Lagged Associations Between Adolescents' Depressive Symptoms and Negative Cognitive Style: The Role of Negative Life Events.

    PubMed

    Kindt, Karlijn C M; Kleinjan, Marloes; Janssens, Jan M A M; Scholte, Ron H J

    2015-11-01

    Previous research has established that cognitive theory-based depression prevention programs aiming change in negative cognitive style in early adolescents do not have strong effects in universal settings. Although theories suggest that a negative cognitive style precedes depressive symptoms, empirical findings are mixed. We hypothesized that negative cognitive style may not predict depressive symptoms in adolescents with normative depressive symptoms. Depressive symptoms, negative cognitive style and dependent negative life events were assessed in young adolescents (N = 1343; mean age = 13.4 years, SD = 0.77; 52.3 % girls) at four time points over an 18-month period. Using a cross-lagged panel design, results revealed that depressive symptoms predicted a negative cognitive style but not vice versa. However, when including dependent negative life events as a variable, depressive symptoms did not prospect a negative cognitive style consistently. When dependent negative life events were used as a time-varying covariate, depressive symptoms and a negative cognitive style were not related. We concluded that negative cognitive style is not predictive of depressive symptoms in a community sample of young adolescents. Moreover, the findings suggest that longitudinal relationships between depressive symptoms and a negative cognitive style are not meaningful when dependent negative life events are not considered.

  17. The value of FATS expression in predicting sensitivity to radiotherapy in breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Jun; Wu, Nan; Zhang, Tiemei; Sun, Tao; Su, Yi; Zhao, Jing; Mu, Kun; Jin, Zhao; Gao, Ming; Liu, Juntian; Gu, Lin

    2017-06-13

    The fragile-site associated tumor suppressor (FATS) is a newly identified tumor suppressor involved in radiation-induced tumorigenesis. The purpose of this study was to characterize FATS expression in breast cancers about radiotherapy benefit, patient characteristics, and prognosis. The expression of FATS mRNA was silent or downregulated in 95.2% of breast cancer samples compared with paired normal controls (P < .0001). Negative status of FATS was correlated with higher nuclear grade (P = .01) and shorter disease-free survival (DFS) of breast cancer (P = .036). In a multivariate analysis, FATS expression showed favorable prognostic value for DFS (odds ratio, 0.532; 95% confidence interval, 0.299 to 0.947; (P = .032). Furthermore, improved survival time was seen in FATS-positive patients receiving radiotherapy (P = .006). The results of multivariate analysis revealed independent prognostic value of FATS expression in predicting longer DFS (odds ratio, 0.377; 95% confidence interval, 0.176 to 0.809; P = 0.012) for patients receiving adjuvant radiotherapy. In support of this, reduction of FATS expression in breast cancer cell lines, FATS positive group significantly sensitized than Knock-down of FATS group. Tissue samples from 156 breast cancer patients and 42 controls in tumor bank were studied. FATS gene expression was evaluated using quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR). FATS function was examined in breast cancer cell lines using siRNA knock-downs and colony forming assays after irradiation. FATS status is a biomarker in breast cancer to identify individuals likely to benefit from radiotherapy.

  18. The value of FATS expression in predicting sensitivity to radiotherapy in breast cancer

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Tiemei; Sun, Tao; Su, Yi; Zhao, Jing; Mu, Kun; Jin, Zhao; Gao, Ming; Liu, Juntian; Gu, Lin

    2017-01-01

    Purpose The fragile-site associated tumor suppressor (FATS) is a newly identified tumor suppressor involved in radiation-induced tumorigenesis. The purpose of this study was to characterize FATS expression in breast cancers about radiotherapy benefit, patient characteristics, and prognosis. Results The expression of FATS mRNA was silent or downregulated in 95.2% of breast cancer samples compared with paired normal controls (P < .0001). Negative status of FATS was correlated with higher nuclear grade (P = .01) and shorter disease-free survival (DFS) of breast cancer (P = .036). In a multivariate analysis, FATS expression showed favorable prognostic value for DFS (odds ratio, 0.532; 95% confidence interval, 0.299 to 0.947; (P = .032). Furthermore, improved survival time was seen in FATS-positive patients receiving radiotherapy (P = .006). The results of multivariate analysis revealed independent prognostic value of FATS expression in predicting longer DFS (odds ratio, 0.377; 95% confidence interval, 0.176 to 0.809; P = 0.012) for patients receiving adjuvant radiotherapy. In support of this, reduction of FATS expression in breast cancer cell lines, FATS positive group significantly sensitized than Knock-down of FATS group. Materials and Methods Tissue samples from 156 breast cancer patients and 42 controls in tumor bank were studied. FATS gene expression was evaluated using quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR). FATS function was examined in breast cancer cell lines using siRNA knock-downs and colony forming assays after irradiation. Conclusions FATS status is a biomarker in breast cancer to identify individuals likely to benefit from radiotherapy. PMID:28402275

  19. The predictive value of noninvasive serum markers of liver fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis C.

    PubMed

    Gökcan, Hale; Kuzu, Ufuk Barış; Öztaş, Erkin; Saygılı, Fatih; Öztuna, Derya; Suna, Nuretdin; Tenlik, İlyas; Akdoğan, Meral; Kaçar, Sabite; Kılıç, Zeki Mesut Yalın; Kayaçetin, Ertuğrul

    2016-03-01

    This study aims to show the predictive value of noninvasive serum markers on the hepatic fibrosis level. This cross sectional study involves 120 patients with chronic hepatitis C. The noninvasive markers used were as follows: age-platelet index (AP index), cirrhosis discriminant score (CDS), aspartate aminotransferase (AST)-alanine aminotransferase (ALT) ratio (AAR), fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index, AST-platelet ratio index (APRI), Goteborg University Cirrhosis Index (GUCI), FibroQ, King's score, platelet count. Concurrent liver biopsies were evaluated using the modified Ishak and Knodell scoring systems. In accordance with the Knodell scores, F3-F4 scores were defined as "severe fibrosis," and the modified Ishak scores stage of ≥3 (F3-F6) were defined as "clinically significant fibrosis." Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were carried out to compare the noninvasive markers with hepatic fibrosis level. Mean age of the patients was 51.7±11.6. A total of 10 patients (8.3%) with Knodell scores and 24 patients (20%) with modified Ishak scores were evaluated to have ≥F3 hepatic fibrosis. ROC analyses with the Knodell and modified Ishak scores were as follows: AP index=0.61-0.57, CDS=0.66-0.55, AAR=0.60-0.49, FIB-4=0.70-0.68, APRI=0.67-0.72, GUCI=0.66-0.72, FibroQ=0.64-0.54, King's score=0.68-0.54, platelet count=0.61-0.55. We found that APRI, FIB-4, King's score, and GUCI can be used to determination patients with mild fibrosis with a high negative predictive value and in the differentiation of severe/significant fibrosis from mild to moderate fibrosis.

  20. Echocardiography and risk prediction in advanced heart failure: incremental value over clinical markers.

    PubMed

    Agha, Syed A; Kalogeropoulos, Andreas P; Shih, Jeffrey; Georgiopoulou, Vasiliki V; Giamouzis, Grigorios; Anarado, Perry; Mangalat, Deepa; Hussain, Imad; Book, Wendy; Laskar, Sonjoy; Smith, Andrew L; Martin, Randolph; Butler, Javed

    2009-09-01

    Incremental value of echocardiography over clinical parameters for outcome prediction in advanced heart failure (HF) is not well established. We evaluated 223 patients with advanced HF receiving optimal therapy (91.9% angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin receptor blocker, 92.8% beta-blockers, 71.8% biventricular pacemaker, and/or defibrillator use). The Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) was used as the reference clinical risk prediction scheme. The incremental value of echocardiographic parameters for event prediction (death or urgent heart transplantation) was measured by the improvement in fit and discrimination achieved by addition of standard echocardiographic parameters to the SHFM. After a median follow-up of 2.4 years, there were 38 (17.0%) events (35 deaths; 3 urgent transplants). The SHFM had likelihood ratio (LR) chi(2) 32.0 and C statistic 0.756 for event prediction. Left ventricular end-systolic volume, stroke volume, and severe tricuspid regurgitation were independent echocardiographic predictors of events. The addition of these parameters to SHFM improved LR chi(2) to 72.0 and C statistic to 0.866 (P < .001 and P=.019, respectively). Reclassifying the SHFM-predicted risk with use of the echocardiography-added model resulted in improved prognostic separation. Addition of standard echocardiographic variables to the SHFM results in significant improvement in risk prediction for patients with advanced HF.

  1. Depression-related difficulties disengaging from negative faces are associated with sustained attention to negative feedback during social evaluation and predict stress recovery

    PubMed Central

    Romero, Nuria; De Raedt, Rudi

    2017-01-01

    The present study aimed to clarify: 1) the presence of depression-related attention bias related to a social stressor, 2) its association with depression-related attention biases as measured under standard conditions, and 3) their association with impaired stress recovery in depression. A sample of 39 participants reporting a broad range of depression levels completed a standard eye-tracking paradigm in which they had to engage/disengage their gaze with/from emotional faces. Participants then underwent a stress induction (i.e., giving a speech), in which their eye movements to false emotional feedback were measured, and stress reactivity and recovery were assessed. Depression level was associated with longer times to engage/disengage attention with/from negative faces under standard conditions and with sustained attention to negative feedback during the speech. These depression-related biases were associated and mediated the association between depression level and self-reported stress recovery, predicting lower recovery from stress after giving the speech. PMID:28362826

  2. The value of Doppler ultrasound in predicting delayed graft function occurrence after kidney transplantation.

    PubMed

    Mocny, Grzegorz; Bachul, Piotr; Chang, Ea-Sle; Kulig, Piotr

    The aim of this study was to assess the predictive value of blood flow velocity and vascular resistance measured by Doppler ultrasound in terms of pulsatility index (PI) and resistive index (RI) respectively, in the occurrence of delayed graft function (DGF) after kidney transplantation. This prospective study enrolled kidney transplant recipients operated from January 2005 to April 2009 in the 1st Department of General, Oncological and Gastroenterological Surgery, Jagiellonian University Medical College, Kraków, Poland. The medical records of 53 kidney transplant recipients from deceased donors were reviewed. PI and RI values of the graft arcuate artery were calculated immediately after blood flow restoration and on the 1st, 2nd, 4th and 8th post-operative day. DGF was observed in 20 patients (37.7%), while 33 patients (62.3%) had immediate restoration of the kidney function. The mean intraoperative values of RI and PI from patients with DGF were significantly higher in comparison to patients without DGF (0.9 vs. 0.74, p <0.001; 1.76 vs. 1.54, p = 0.019, respectively). Post-operatively, the RI and PI values remained stable and significantly higher in DGF group. The highest sensitivity of RI to predict DGF occurrence was observed intraoperatively and on the first postoperative day, with values of 77.8% and 72.2%, respectively. The risk of DGF occurrence with intraoperative RI value ≥0.9 increased by 13-fold, and with intraoperative PI value ≥1.9 by 12-fold. This increase was even more prominent during the first post-operative day with RI value ≥0.9 or PI value ≥1.9 with 19-fold increase in the risk of DGF occurrence. According to our study, the utilization of Doppler ultrasound with measurement of hemodynamic parameters (PI, RI), play a crucial role in predicting the outcomes of kidney transplantation.

  3. Nonparametric functional data estimation applied to ozone data: prediction and extreme value analysis.

    PubMed

    Quintela-del-Río, Alejandro; Francisco-Fernández, Mario

    2011-02-01

    The study of extreme values and prediction of ozone data is an important topic of research when dealing with environmental problems. Classical extreme value theory is usually used in air-pollution studies. It consists in fitting a parametric generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution to a data set of extreme values, and using the estimated distribution to compute return levels and other quantities of interest. Here, we propose to estimate these values using nonparametric functional data methods. Functional data analysis is a relatively new statistical methodology that generally deals with data consisting of curves or multi-dimensional variables. In this paper, we use this technique, jointly with nonparametric curve estimation, to provide alternatives to the usual parametric statistical tools. The nonparametric estimators are applied to real samples of maximum ozone values obtained from several monitoring stations belonging to the Automatic Urban and Rural Network (AURN) in the UK. The results show that nonparametric estimators work satisfactorily, outperforming the behaviour of classical parametric estimators. Functional data analysis is also used to predict stratospheric ozone concentrations. We show an application, using the data set of mean monthly ozone concentrations in Arosa, Switzerland, and the results are compared with those obtained by classical time series (ARIMA) analysis. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Preoperative Prediction of Node-Negative Disease After Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in Patients Presenting with Node-Negative or Node-Positive Breast Cancer.

    PubMed

    Murphy, Brittany L; L Hoskin, Tanya; Heins, Courtney Day N; Habermann, Elizabeth B; Boughey, Judy C

    2017-09-01

    Axillary node status after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) influences the axillary surgical staging procedure as well as recommendations regarding reconstruction and radiation. Our aim was to construct a clinical preoperative prediction model to identify the likelihood of patients being node negative after NAC. Using the National Cancer Database (NCDB) from January 2010 to December 2012, we identified cT1-T4c, N0-N3 breast cancer patients treated with NAC. The effects of patient and tumor factors on pathologic node status were assessed by multivariable logistic regression separately for clinically node negative (cN0) and clinically node positive (cN+) disease, and two models were constructed. Model performance was validated in a cohort of NAC patients treated at our institution (January 2013-July 2016), and model discrimination was assessed by estimating the area under the curve (AUC). Of 16,153 NCDB patients, 6659 (41%) were cN0 and 9494 (59%) were cN+. Factors associated with pathologic nodal status and included in the models were patient age, tumor grade, biologic subtype, histology, clinical tumor category, and, in cN+ patients only, clinical nodal category. The validation dataset included 194 cN0 and 180 cN+ patients. The cN0 model demonstrated good discrimination, with an AUC of 0.73 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.72-0.74) in the NCDB and 0.77 (95% CI 0.68-0.85) in the external validation, while the cN+ patient model AUC was 0.71 (95% CI 0.70-0.72) in the NCDB and 0.74 (95% CI 0.67-0.82) in the external validation. We constructed two models that showed good discrimination for predicting ypN0 status following NAC in cN0 and cN+ patients. These clinically useful models can guide surgical planning after NAC.

  5. Feasibility of using negative ultrasonography results of axillary lymph nodes to predict sentinel lymph node metastasis in breast cancer patients.

    PubMed

    Chen, Xue; He, Yingjian; Wang, Jiwei; Huo, Ling; Fan, Zhaoqing; Li, Jinfeng; Xie, Yuntao; Wang, Tianfeng; Ouyang, Tao

    2018-06-14

    Knowledge of the pathology of axillary lymph nodes (ALN) in breast cancer patients is critical for determining their treatment. Ultrasound is the best noninvasive evaluation for the ALN status. However, the correlation between negative ultrasound results and the sentinel lymph nodes (SLN) pathology remains unknown. To test the hypothesis that negative ultrasound results of ALN predict the negative pathology results of SLN in breast cancer patients, we assessed the association between ALN ultrasonography-negative results and the SLN pathology in 3115 patients with breast cancer recruited between October 2010 and April 2016 from a single cancer center, prospective database. Of these patients who met the inclusion criteria, 2317 (74.4%) had no SLN pathological metastasis. In the univariate analysis, other 798 patient with positive SLN tended to be under age 40 and premenopausal, having large tumor sizes (>2 cm), higher histological grade of primary tumor, positive hormone receptors, and negative HER-2 status (P < .05 for all). In the multivariate analysis, menstrual status, tumor size, ER status and histological types of primary tumor remained to be independent predictors for SLN pathological metastasis. The area under curve (AUC) was 0.658 (95% CI = 0.637-0.679), P > .05. In conclusion, only a 74.4% consistency between ALN ultrasonography-negative results and negative pathological SLN results, although menstrual status, tumor size, histologic subtypes of primary tumor and ER status were found to be statistically independent predictors of positive SLN among patients negative for ALN ultrasonography. Therefore, the present study suggests that negative ultrasound results of ALN do not adequately predict the negative pathology results of SLN in breast cancer patients. © 2018 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. The Predictive Value of Selection Criteria in an Urban Magnet School

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lohmeier, Jill Hendrickson; Raad, Jennifer

    2012-01-01

    The predictive value of selection criteria on outcome data from two cohorts of students (Total N = 525) accepted to an urban magnet high school were evaluated. Regression analyses of typical screening variables (suspensions, absences, metropolitan achievement tests, middle school grade point averages [GPAs], Matrix Analogies test scores, and…

  7. Accuracy of Predicted Genomic Breeding Values in Purebred and Crossbred Pigs.

    PubMed

    Hidalgo, André M; Bastiaansen, John W M; Lopes, Marcos S; Harlizius, Barbara; Groenen, Martien A M; de Koning, Dirk-Jan

    2015-05-26

    Genomic selection has been widely implemented in dairy cattle breeding when the aim is to improve performance of purebred animals. In pigs, however, the final product is a crossbred animal. This may affect the efficiency of methods that are currently implemented for dairy cattle. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine the accuracy of predicted breeding values in crossbred pigs using purebred genomic and phenotypic data. A second objective was to compare the predictive ability of SNPs when training is done in either single or multiple populations for four traits: age at first insemination (AFI); total number of piglets born (TNB); litter birth weight (LBW); and litter variation (LVR). We performed marker-based and pedigree-based predictions. Within-population predictions for the four traits ranged from 0.21 to 0.72. Multi-population prediction yielded accuracies ranging from 0.18 to 0.67. Predictions across purebred populations as well as predicting genetic merit of crossbreds from their purebred parental lines for AFI performed poorly (not significantly different from zero). In contrast, accuracies of across-population predictions and accuracies of purebred to crossbred predictions for LBW and LVR ranged from 0.08 to 0.31 and 0.11 to 0.31, respectively. Accuracy for TNB was zero for across-population prediction, whereas for purebred to crossbred prediction it ranged from 0.08 to 0.22. In general, marker-based outperformed pedigree-based prediction across populations and traits. However, in some cases pedigree-based prediction performed similarly or outperformed marker-based prediction. There was predictive ability when purebred populations were used to predict crossbred genetic merit using an additive model in the populations studied. AFI was the only exception, indicating that predictive ability depends largely on the genetic correlation between PB and CB performance, which was 0.31 for AFI. Multi-population prediction was no better than within

  8. Need for Affect and Attitudes Toward Drugs: The Mediating Role of Values.

    PubMed

    Lins de Holanda Coelho, Gabriel; H P Hanel, Paul; Vilar, Roosevelt; P Monteiro, Renan; Gouveia, Valdiney V; R Maio, Gregory

    2018-05-04

    Human values and affective traits were found to predict attitudes toward the use of different types of drugs (e.g., alcohol, marijuana, and other illegal drugs). In this study (N = 196, M age = 23.09), we aimed to gain a more comprehensive understanding of those predictors of attitudes toward drug use in a mediated structural equation model, providing a better overview of a possible motivational path that drives to such a risky behavior. Specifically, we predicted and found that the relations between need for affect and attitudes toward drug use were mediated by excitement values. Also, results showed that excitement values and need for affect positively predicted attitudes toward the use of drugs, whereas normative values predicted it negatively. The pattern of results remained the same when we investigated attitudes toward alcohol, marijuana, or illegal drugs separately. Overall, the findings indicate that emotions operate via excitement and normative values to influence risk behavior.

  9. Structured Parent-Child Observations Predict Development of Conduct Problems: the Importance of Parental Negative Attention in Child-Directed Play.

    PubMed

    Fleming, Andrew P; McMahon, Robert J; King, Kevin M

    2017-04-01

    Structured observations of parent-child interactions are commonly used in research and clinical settings, but require additional empirical support. The current study examined the capacity of child-directed play, parent-directed play, and parent-directed chore interaction analogs to uniquely predict the development of conduct problems across a 6-year follow-up period. Parent-child observations were collected from 338 families from high-risk neighborhoods during the summer following the child's first-grade year. Participating children were 49.2 % female, 54.4 % white, and 45.6 % black, and had an average age of 7.52 years at the first assessment. Conduct problems were assessed via parent report and teacher report at five assessment points between first grade and seventh grade. Latent growth curve modeling was used to analyze predictors of conduct problem trajectory across this 6-year follow-up period. When race, sex, socioeconomic status, and maternal depressive symptoms were controlled, parental negative attention during child-directed play predicted higher levels of parent-reported conduct problems concurrently and after a 6-year follow-up period. Parental negative attention during child-directed play also predicted higher teacher-reported conduct problems 6 years later. Findings support the use of child-directed play and parent-directed chore analogs in predicting longitudinal development of conduct problems. The presence of parental negative attention during child-directed play appears to be an especially important predictor of greater conduct problems over time and across multiple domains. Additionally, the potential importance of task-incongruent behavior is proposed for further study.

  10. A multigene assay to predict recurrence of tamoxifen-treated, node-negative breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Paik, Soonmyung; Shak, Steven; Tang, Gong; Kim, Chungyeul; Baker, Joffre; Cronin, Maureen; Baehner, Frederick L; Walker, Michael G; Watson, Drew; Park, Taesung; Hiller, William; Fisher, Edwin R; Wickerham, D Lawrence; Bryant, John; Wolmark, Norman

    2004-12-30

    The likelihood of distant recurrence in patients with breast cancer who have no involved lymph nodes and estrogen-receptor-positive tumors is poorly defined by clinical and histopathological measures. We tested whether the results of a reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain-reaction (RT-PCR) assay of 21 prospectively selected genes in paraffin-embedded tumor tissue would correlate with the likelihood of distant recurrence in patients with node-negative, tamoxifen-treated breast cancer who were enrolled in the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project clinical trial B-14. The levels of expression of 16 cancer-related genes and 5 reference genes were used in a prospectively defined algorithm to calculate a recurrence score and to determine a risk group (low, intermediate, or high) for each patient. Adequate RT-PCR profiles were obtained in 668 of 675 tumor blocks. The proportions of patients categorized as having a low, intermediate, or high risk by the RT-PCR assay were 51, 22, and 27 percent, respectively. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of the rates of distant recurrence at 10 years in the low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups were 6.8 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 4.0 to 9.6), 14.3 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 8.3 to 20.3), and 30.5 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 23.6 to 37.4). The rate in the low-risk group was significantly lower than that in the high-risk group (P<0.001). In a multivariate Cox model, the recurrence score provided significant predictive power that was independent of age and tumor size (P<0.001). The recurrence score was also predictive of overall survival (P<0.001) and could be used as a continuous function to predict distant recurrence in individual patients. The recurrence score has been validated as quantifying the likelihood of distant recurrence in tamoxifen-treated patients with node-negative, estrogen-receptor-positive breast cancer. Copyright 2004 Massachusetts Medical Society.

  11. Biases associated with genotype and sex in prediction of fat-free lean mass and carcass value in hogs.

    PubMed

    Hicks, C; Schinckel, A P; Forrest, J C; Akridge, J T; Wagner, J R; Chen, W

    1998-09-01

    Carcass and live measurements of 165 market hogs that represented seven genotypes were used to investigate genotype and sex biases associated with the prediction of fat-free lean mass (FFLM) and carcass value. Carcass value was determined as the sum of the product of weight of individual cuts and their average unit prices adjusted for slaughter and processing costs. Independent variables used in the prediction equations included carcass measurements, such as optical probe, midline ruler, ribbed carcass measurements, and electromagnetic scanning (EMSCAN), and live animal ultrasonic scanning. The effect of including subpopulation mean values of independent variables in the prediction equations for FFLM and carcass value was also investigated. Genotype and sex biases were found in equations in which midline backfat, ribbed carcass, EMSCAN, and live ultrasonic scanning were used as single technology sets of measurements. The prediction equations generally undervalued genotypes with above-average carcass value. Biases were reduced when measurements of combined technologies and mean adjusted variables were used. The FFLM and carcass value of gilts were underestimated, and they were overestimated of barrows. Equations that combined OP and EMSCAN technologies were the most accurate and least biased for both FFLM and carcass value. Equations that included carcass weight and midline last-rib backfat thickness measurements were the least accurate and most biased. Genotype and sex biases must be considered when predicting FFLM and carcass value.

  12. Where there's smoke, there's fire: the brain reactivity of chronic smokers when exposed to the negative value of smoking.

    PubMed

    Dinh-Williams, Laurence; Mendrek, Adrianna; Bourque, Josiane; Potvin, Stéphane

    2014-04-03

    The addictive nature of smoking is characterized by responses to cigarette stimuli that significantly impede smoking cessation efforts. Studies have shown that smokers are roused by appetitive smoking-related stimuli, and their consumption tends to be unaffected by the negative value of smoking. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, the goal of this study was two-fold: to examine the brain reactivity of chronic smokers when processing the negative value of smoking using aversive smoking-related cues; to further characterize this response by comparing the latter to the processing of aversive nonsmoking-related and appetitive smoking-related cues. Thirty chronic smokers passively viewed aversive smoking-related, aversive nonsmoking-related, appetitive smoking-related and neutral images presented in a block design while being scanned. Aversive smoking-related stimuli elicited significantly greater activation in the medial prefrontal cortex, amygdala, inferior frontal gyrus and lateral orbitofrontal cortex than neutral stimuli. Aversive smoking-related stimuli elicited lower activation in the parahippocampal gyrus, insula and inferior frontal gyrus compared to the aversive nonsmoking-related condition, as well as lower activation in the posterior cingulate, precuneus and medial prefrontal cortices compared to appetitive smoking-related cues. The brain activation pattern observed suggests that chronic smokers experience an aversive response when processing aversive smoking-related stimuli, however we argue that the latter triggers a weaker negative emotional and driving response than the aversive non-smoking-related and appetitive smoking-related cues respectively. These fMRI results highlight potentially important processes underlying the insensitivity to the negative value of smoking, an important characteristic of addiction. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Value of IgA tTG in Predicting Mucosal Recovery in Children with Celiac Disease on a Gluten Free Diet

    PubMed Central

    Leonard, Maureen M.; Weir, Dascha C.; DeGroote, Maya; Mitchell, Paul D.; Singh, Prashant; Silvester, Jocelyn A.; Leichtner, Alan M.; Fasano, Alessio

    2017-01-01

    Objective Our objective was to determine the rate of mucosal recovery in pediatric patients with celiac disease on a gluten free diet. We also sought to determine whether IgA tissue transglutaminase (tTG) correlates with mucosal damage at the time of a repeat endoscopy with duodenal biopsy in these patients. Methods We performed a retrospective chart review of one-hundred and three pediatric patients, under 21 years of age, with a diagnosis of celiac disease defined as Marsh 3 histology, and who underwent a repeat endoscopy with duodenal biopsy at least twelve months after initiating a gluten free diet. Results We found that 19% of pediatric patients treated with a gluten free diet had persistent enteropathy. At the time of the repeat biopsy, tTG was elevated in 43% of cases with persistent enteropathy and 32% of cases in which there was mucosal recovery. Overall the positive predictive value of the autoantibody tissue transglutaminase was 25% and the negative predictive value was 83% in patients on a gluten free diet for a median of 2.4 years. Conclusions Nearly one in five children with celiac disease in our population had persistent enteropathy despite maintaining a gluten free diet and IgA tTG was not an accurate marker of mucosal recovery. Neither the presence of symptoms nor positive serology were predictive of a patient’s histology at the time of repeat biopsy. These findings suggest a revisitation of monitoring and management criteria of celiac disease in childhood. PMID:28112686

  14. [Formula: see text]-convergence, complete convergence, and weak laws of large numbers for asymptotically negatively associated random vectors with values in [Formula: see text].

    PubMed

    Ko, Mi-Hwa

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, based on the Rosenthal-type inequality for asymptotically negatively associated random vectors with values in [Formula: see text], we establish results on [Formula: see text]-convergence and complete convergence of the maximums of partial sums are established. We also obtain weak laws of large numbers for coordinatewise asymptotically negatively associated random vectors with values in [Formula: see text].

  15. Differential encoding of factors influencing predicted reward value in monkey rostral anterior cingulate cortex.

    PubMed

    Toda, Koji; Sugase-Miyamoto, Yasuko; Mizuhiki, Takashi; Inaba, Kiyonori; Richmond, Barry J; Shidara, Munetaka

    2012-01-01

    The value of a predicted reward can be estimated based on the conjunction of both the intrinsic reward value and the length of time to obtain it. The question we addressed is how the two aspects, reward size and proximity to reward, influence the responses of neurons in rostral anterior cingulate cortex (rACC), a brain region thought to play an important role in reward processing. We recorded from single neurons while two monkeys performed a multi-trial reward schedule task. The monkeys performed 1-4 sequential color discrimination trials to obtain a reward of 1-3 liquid drops. There were two task conditions, a valid cue condition, where the number of trials and reward amount were associated with visual cues, and a random cue condition, where the cue was picked from the cue set at random. In the valid cue condition, the neuronal firing is strongly modulated by the predicted reward proximity during the trials. Information about the predicted reward amount is almost absent at those times. In substantial subpopulations, the neuronal responses decreased or increased gradually through schedule progress to the predicted outcome. These two gradually modulating signals could be used to calculate the effect of time on the perception of reward value. In the random cue condition, little information about the reward proximity or reward amount is encoded during the course of the trial before reward delivery, but when the reward is actually delivered the responses reflect both the reward proximity and reward amount. Our results suggest that the rACC neurons encode information about reward proximity and amount in a manner that is dependent on utility of reward information. The manner in which the information is represented could be used in the moment-to-moment calculation of the effect of time and amount on predicted outcome value.

  16. Prediction of Breeding Values for Dairy Cattle Using Artificial Neural Networks and Neuro-Fuzzy Systems

    PubMed Central

    Shahinfar, Saleh; Mehrabani-Yeganeh, Hassan; Lucas, Caro; Kalhor, Ahmad; Kazemian, Majid; Weigel, Kent A.

    2012-01-01

    Developing machine learning and soft computing techniques has provided many opportunities for researchers to establish new analytical methods in different areas of science. The objective of this study is to investigate the potential of two types of intelligent learning methods, artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy systems, in order to estimate breeding values (EBV) of Iranian dairy cattle. Initially, the breeding values of lactating Holstein cows for milk and fat yield were estimated using conventional best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) with an animal model. Once that was established, a multilayer perceptron was used to build ANN to predict breeding values from the performance data of selection candidates. Subsequently, fuzzy logic was used to form an NFS, a hybrid intelligent system that was implemented via a local linear model tree algorithm. For milk yield the correlations between EBV and EBV predicted by the ANN and NFS were 0.92 and 0.93, respectively. Corresponding correlations for fat yield were 0.93 and 0.93, respectively. Correlations between multitrait predictions of EBVs for milk and fat yield when predicted simultaneously by ANN were 0.93 and 0.93, respectively, whereas corresponding correlations with reference EBV for multitrait NFS were 0.94 and 0.95, respectively, for milk and fat production. PMID:22991575

  17. Procalcitonin Levels in Gram-Positive, Gram-Negative, and Fungal Bloodstream Infections

    PubMed Central

    Ferranti, Marta; Moretti, Amedeo; Al Dhahab, Zainab Salim; Cenci, Elio; Mencacci, Antonella

    2015-01-01

    Procalcitonin (PCT) can discriminate bacterial from viral systemic infections and true bacteremia from contaminated blood cultures. The aim of this study was to evaluate PCT diagnostic accuracy in discriminating Gram-positive, Gram-negative, and fungal bloodstream infections. A total of 1,949 samples from patients with suspected bloodstream infections were included in the study. Median PCT value in Gram-negative (13.8 ng/mL, interquartile range (IQR) 3.4–44.1) bacteremias was significantly higher than in Gram-positive (2.1 ng/mL, IQR 0.6–7.6) or fungal (0.5 ng/mL, IQR 0.4–1) infections (P < 0.0001). Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed an area under the curve (AUC) for PCT of 0.765 (95% CI 0.725–0.805, P < 0.0001) in discriminating Gram-negatives from Gram-positives at the best cut-off value of 10.8 ng/mL and an AUC of 0.944 (95% CI 0.919–0.969, P < 0.0001) in discriminating Gram-negatives from fungi at the best cut-off of 1.6 ng/mL. Additional results showed a significant difference in median PCT values between Enterobacteriaceae and nonfermentative Gram-negative bacteria (17.1 ng/mL, IQR 5.9–48.5 versus 3.5 ng/mL, IQR 0.8–21.5; P < 0.0001). This study suggests that PCT may be of value to distinguish Gram-negative from Gram-positive and fungal bloodstream infections. Nevertheless, its utility to predict different microorganisms needs to be assessed in further studies. PMID:25852221

  18. Meta-analysis of the predictive value of DNA aneuploidy in malignant transformation of oral potentially malignant disorders.

    PubMed

    Alaizari, Nader A; Sperandio, Marcelo; Odell, Edward W; Peruzzo, Daiane; Al-Maweri, Sadeq A

    2018-02-01

    DNA aneuploidy is an imbalance of chromosomal DNA content that has been highlighted as a predictor of biological behavior and risk of malignant transformation. To date, DNA aneuploidy in oral potentially malignant diseases (OPMD) has been shown to correlate strongly with severe dysplasia and high-risk lesions that appeared non-dysplastic can be identified by ploidy analysis. Nevertheless, the prognostic value of DNA aneuploidy in predicting malignant transformation of OPMD remains to be validated. The aim of this meta-analysis was to assess the role of DNA aneuploidy in predicting malignant transformation in OPMD. The questions addressed were (i) Is DNA aneuploidy a useful marker to predict malignant transformation in OPMD? (ii) Is DNA diploidy a useful negative marker of malignant transformation in OPMD? These questions were addressed using the PECO method. Five studies assessing aneuploidy as a risk marker of malignant change were pooled into the meta-analysis. Aneuploidy was found to be associated with a 3.12-fold increased risk to progress into cancer (RR=3.12, 95% CI 1.86-5.24). Based on the five studies meta-analyzed, "no malignant progression" was more likely to occur in DNA diploid OPMD by 82% when compared to aneuploidy (RR=0.18, 95% CI 0.08-0.41). In conclusion, aneuploidy is a useful marker of malignant transformation in OPMD, although a diploid result should be interpreted with caution. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Can blood and semen presepsin levels in males predict pregnancy in couples undergoing intra-cytoplasmic sperm injection?

    PubMed

    Ovayolu, Ali; Arslanbuğa, Cansev Yilmaz; Gun, Ismet; Devranoglu, Belgin; Ozdemir, Arman; Cakar, Sule Eren

    2016-01-01

    To determine whether semen and plasma presepsin values measured in men with normozoospermia and oligoasthenospermia undergoing invitro-fertilization would be helpful in predicting ongoing pregnancy and live birth. Group-I was defined as patients who had pregnancy after treatment and Group-II comprised those with no pregnancy. Semen and blood presepsin values were subsequently compared between the groups. Parametric comparisons were performed using Student's t-test, and non-parametric comparisons were conducted using the Mann-Whitney U test. There were 42 patients in Group-I and 72 in Group-II. In the context of successful pregnancy and live birth, semen presepsin values were statistically significantly higher in Group-I than in Group-II (p= 0.004 and p= 0.037, respectively). The most appropriate semen presepsin cut-off value for predicting both ongoing pregnancy and live birth was calculated as 199 pg/mL. Accordingly, their sensitivity was 64.5% to 59.3%, their specificity was 57.0% to 54.2%, and their positive predictive value was 37.0% to 29.6%, respectively; their negative predictive value was 80.4% in both instances. Semen presepsin values could be a new marker that may enable the prediction of successful pregnancy and/or live birth. Its negative predictive values are especially high.

  20. CD-Based Indices for Link Prediction in Complex Network.

    PubMed

    Wang, Tao; Wang, Hongjue; Wang, Xiaoxia

    2016-01-01

    Lots of similarity-based algorithms have been designed to deal with the problem of link prediction in the past decade. In order to improve prediction accuracy, a novel cosine similarity index CD based on distance between nodes and cosine value between vectors is proposed in this paper. Firstly, node coordinate matrix can be obtained by node distances which are different from distance matrix and row vectors of the matrix are regarded as coordinates of nodes. Then, cosine value between node coordinates is used as their similarity index. A local community density index LD is also proposed. Then, a series of CD-based indices include CD-LD-k, CD*LD-k, CD-k and CDI are presented and applied in ten real networks. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of CD-based indices. The effects of network clustering coefficient and assortative coefficient on prediction accuracy of indices are analyzed. CD-LD-k and CD*LD-k can improve prediction accuracy without considering the assortative coefficient of network is negative or positive. According to analysis of relative precision of each method on each network, CD-LD-k and CD*LD-k indices have excellent average performance and robustness. CD and CD-k indices perform better on positive assortative networks than on negative assortative networks. For negative assortative networks, we improve and refine CD index, referred as CDI index, combining the advantages of CD index and evolutionary mechanism of the network model BA. Experimental results reveal that CDI index can increase prediction accuracy of CD on negative assortative networks.

  1. CD-Based Indices for Link Prediction in Complex Network

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Tao; Wang, Hongjue; Wang, Xiaoxia

    2016-01-01

    Lots of similarity-based algorithms have been designed to deal with the problem of link prediction in the past decade. In order to improve prediction accuracy, a novel cosine similarity index CD based on distance between nodes and cosine value between vectors is proposed in this paper. Firstly, node coordinate matrix can be obtained by node distances which are different from distance matrix and row vectors of the matrix are regarded as coordinates of nodes. Then, cosine value between node coordinates is used as their similarity index. A local community density index LD is also proposed. Then, a series of CD-based indices include CD-LD-k, CD*LD-k, CD-k and CDI are presented and applied in ten real networks. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of CD-based indices. The effects of network clustering coefficient and assortative coefficient on prediction accuracy of indices are analyzed. CD-LD-k and CD*LD-k can improve prediction accuracy without considering the assortative coefficient of network is negative or positive. According to analysis of relative precision of each method on each network, CD-LD-k and CD*LD-k indices have excellent average performance and robustness. CD and CD-k indices perform better on positive assortative networks than on negative assortative networks. For negative assortative networks, we improve and refine CD index, referred as CDI index, combining the advantages of CD index and evolutionary mechanism of the network model BA. Experimental results reveal that CDI index can increase prediction accuracy of CD on negative assortative networks. PMID:26752405

  2. Solitary Alcohol Use in Teens Is Associated With Drinking in Response to Negative Affect and Predicts Alcohol Problems in Young Adulthood

    PubMed Central

    Creswell, Kasey G.; Chung, Tammy; Clark, Duncan B.; Martin, Christopher S.

    2015-01-01

    Adolescent solitary drinking may represent an informative divergence from normative behavior, with important implications for understanding risk for alcohol-use disorders later in life. Within a self-medication framework, we hypothesized that solitary alcohol use would be associated with drinking in response to negative affect and that such a pattern of drinking would predict alcohol problems in young adulthood. We tested these predictions in a longitudinal study in which we examined whether solitary drinking in adolescence (ages 12–18) predicted alcohol-use disorders in young adulthood (age 25) in 466 alcohol-using teens recruited from clinical programs and 243 alcohol-using teens recruited from the community. Findings showed that solitary drinking was associated with drinking in response to negative affect during adolescence and predicted alcohol problems in young adulthood. Results indicate that drinking alone is an important type of alcohol-use behavior that increases risk for the escalation of alcohol use and the development of alcohol problems. PMID:25977842

  3. Solitary Alcohol Use in Teens Is Associated With Drinking in Response to Negative Affect and Predicts Alcohol Problems in Young Adulthood.

    PubMed

    Creswell, Kasey G; Chung, Tammy; Clark, Duncan B; Martin, Christopher S

    2014-09-01

    Adolescent solitary drinking may represent an informative divergence from normative behavior, with important implications for understanding risk for alcohol-use disorders later in life. Within a self-medication framework, we hypothesized that solitary alcohol use would be associated with drinking in response to negative affect and that such a pattern of drinking would predict alcohol problems in young adulthood. We tested these predictions in a longitudinal study in which we examined whether solitary drinking in adolescence (ages 12-18) predicted alcohol-use disorders in young adulthood (age 25) in 466 alcohol-using teens recruited from clinical programs and 243 alcohol-using teens recruited from the community. Findings showed that solitary drinking was associated with drinking in response to negative affect during adolescence and predicted alcohol problems in young adulthood. Results indicate that drinking alone is an important type of alcohol-use behavior that increases risk for the escalation of alcohol use and the development of alcohol problems.

  4. The value of nodal information in predicting lung cancer relapse using 4DPET/4DCT

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Li, Heyse, E-mail: heyse.li@mail.utoronto.ca; Becker, Nathan; Raman, Srinivas

    2015-08-15

    Purpose: There is evidence that computed tomography (CT) and positron emission tomography (PET) imaging metrics are prognostic and predictive in nonsmall cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treatment outcomes. However, few studies have explored the use of standardized uptake value (SUV)-based image features of nodal regions as predictive features. The authors investigated and compared the use of tumor and node image features extracted from the radiotherapy target volumes to predict relapse in a cohort of NSCLC patients undergoing chemoradiation treatment. Methods: A prospective cohort of 25 patients with locally advanced NSCLC underwent 4DPET/4DCT imaging for radiation planning. Thirty-seven image features were derivedmore » from the CT-defined volumes and SUVs of the PET image from both the tumor and nodal target regions. The machine learning methods of logistic regression and repeated stratified five-fold cross-validation (CV) were used to predict local and overall relapses in 2 yr. The authors used well-known feature selection methods (Spearman’s rank correlation, recursive feature elimination) within each fold of CV. Classifiers were ranked on their Matthew’s correlation coefficient (MCC) after CV. Area under the curve, sensitivity, and specificity values are also presented. Results: For predicting local relapse, the best classifier found had a mean MCC of 0.07 and was composed of eight tumor features. For predicting overall relapse, the best classifier found had a mean MCC of 0.29 and was composed of a single feature: the volume greater than 0.5 times the maximum SUV (N). Conclusions: The best classifier for predicting local relapse had only tumor features. In contrast, the best classifier for predicting overall relapse included a node feature. Overall, the methods showed that nodes add value in predicting overall relapse but not local relapse.« less

  5. First trimester prediction of maternal glycemic status.

    PubMed

    Gabbay-Benziv, Rinat; Doyle, Lauren E; Blitzer, Miriam; Baschat, Ahmet A

    2015-05-01

    To predict gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) or normoglycemic status using first trimester maternal characteristics. We used data from a prospective cohort study. First trimester maternal characteristics were compared between women with and without GDM. Association of these variables with sugar values at glucose challenge test (GCT) and subsequent GDM was tested to identify key parameters. A predictive algorithm for GDM was developed and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) statistics was used to derive the optimal risk score. We defined normoglycemic state, when GCT and all four sugar values at oral glucose tolerance test, whenever obtained, were normal. Using same statistical approach, we developed an algorithm to predict the normoglycemic state. Maternal age, race, prior GDM, first trimester BMI, and systolic blood pressure (SBP) were all significantly associated with GDM. Age, BMI, and SBP were also associated with GCT values. The logistic regression analysis constructed equation and the calculated risk score yielded sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of 85%, 62%, 13.8%, and 98.3% for a cut-off value of 0.042, respectively (ROC-AUC - area under the curve 0.819, CI - confidence interval 0.769-0.868). The model constructed for normoglycemia prediction demonstrated lower performance (ROC-AUC 0.707, CI 0.668-0.746). GDM prediction can be achieved during the first trimester encounter by integration of maternal characteristics and basic measurements while normoglycemic status prediction is less effective.

  6. EMG prediction from Motor Cortical Recordings via a Non-Negative Point Process Filter

    PubMed Central

    Nazarpour, Kianoush; Ethier, Christian; Paninski, Liam; Rebesco, James M.; Miall, R. Chris; Miller, Lee E.

    2012-01-01

    A constrained point process filtering mechanism for prediction of electromyogram (EMG) signals from multi-channel neural spike recordings is proposed here. Filters from the Kalman family are inherently sub-optimal in dealing with non-Gaussian observations, or a state evolution that deviates from the Gaussianity assumption. To address these limitations, we modeled the non-Gaussian neural spike train observations by using a generalized linear model (GLM) that encapsulates covariates of neural activity, including the neurons’ own spiking history, concurrent ensemble activity, and extrinsic covariates (EMG signals). In order to predict the envelopes of EMGs, we reformulated the Kalman filter (KF) in an optimization framework and utilized a non-negativity constraint. This structure characterizes the non-linear correspondence between neural activity and EMG signals reasonably. The EMGs were recorded from twelve forearm and hand muscles of a behaving monkey during a grip-force task. For the case of limited training data, the constrained point process filter improved the prediction accuracy when compared to a conventional Wiener cascade filter (a linear causal filter followed by a static non-linearity) for different bin sizes and delays between input spikes and EMG output. For longer training data sets, results of the proposed filter and that of the Wiener cascade filter were comparable. PMID:21659018

  7. Choice Defines Value: A Predictive Modeling Competition in Health Preference Research.

    PubMed

    Jakubczyk, Michał; Craig, Benjamin M; Barra, Mathias; Groothuis-Oudshoorn, Catharina G M; Hartman, John D; Huynh, Elisabeth; Ramos-Goñi, Juan M; Stolk, Elly A; Rand, Kim

    2018-02-01

    To identify which specifications and approaches to model selection better predict health preferences, the International Academy of Health Preference Research (IAHPR) hosted a predictive modeling competition including 18 teams from around the world. In April 2016, an exploratory survey was fielded: 4074 US respondents completed 20 out of 1560 paired comparisons by choosing between two health descriptions (e.g., longer life span vs. better health). The exploratory data were distributed to all teams. By July, eight teams had submitted their predictions for 1600 additional pairs and described their analytical approach. After these predictions had been posted online, a confirmatory survey was fielded (4148 additional respondents). The victorious team, "Discreetly Charming Econometricians," led by Michał Jakubczyk, achieved the smallest χ 2 , 4391.54 (a predefined criterion). Its primary scientific findings were that different models performed better with different pairs, that the value of life span is not constant proportional, and that logit models have poor predictive validity in health valuation. The results demonstrated the diversity and potential of new analytical approaches in health preference research and highlighted the importance of predictive validity in health valuation. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Evaluation of predictive capacities of biomarkers based on research synthesis.

    PubMed

    Hattori, Satoshi; Zhou, Xiao-Hua

    2016-11-10

    The objective of diagnostic studies or prognostic studies is to evaluate and compare predictive capacities of biomarkers. Suppose we are interested in evaluation and comparison of predictive capacities of continuous biomarkers for a binary outcome based on research synthesis. In analysis of each study, subjects are often classified into two groups of the high-expression and low-expression groups according to a cut-off value, and statistical analysis is based on a 2 × 2 table defined by the response and the high expression or low expression of the biomarker. Because the cut-off is study specific, it is difficult to interpret a combined summary measure such as an odds ratio based on the standard meta-analysis techniques. The summary receiver operating characteristic curve is a useful method for meta-analysis of diagnostic studies in the presence of heterogeneity of cut-off values to examine discriminative capacities of biomarkers. We develop a method to estimate positive or negative predictive curves, which are alternative to the receiver operating characteristic curve based on information reported in published papers of each study. These predictive curves provide a useful graphical presentation of pairs of positive and negative predictive values and allow us to compare predictive capacities of biomarkers of different scales in the presence of heterogeneity in cut-off values among studies. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. [The value of SYNTAX score in predicting outcome patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention].

    PubMed

    Gao, Yue-chun; Yu, Xian-peng; He, Ji-qiang; Chen, Fang

    2012-01-01

    To assess the value of SYNTAX score to predict major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) among patients with three-vessel or left-main coronary artery disease undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention. 190 patients with three-vessel or left-main coronary artery disease undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with Cypher select drug-eluting stent were enrolled. SYNTAX score and clinical SYNTAX score were retrospectively calculated. Our clinical Endpoint focused on MACCE, a composite of death, nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI), stroke and repeat revascularization. The value of SYNTAX score and clinical SYNTAX score to predict MACCE were studied respectively. 29 patients were observed to suffer from MACCE, accounting 18.5% of the overall 190 patients. MACCE rates of low (≤ 20.5), intermediate (21.0 - 31.0), and high (≥ 31.5) tertiles according to SYNTAX score were 9.1%, 16.2% and 30.9% respectively. Both univariate and multivariate analysis showed that SYNTAX score was the independent predictor of MACCE. MACCE rates of low (≤ 19.5), intermediate (19.6 - 29.1), and high (≥ 29.2) tertiles according to clinical SYNTAX score were 14.9%, 9.8% and 30.6% respectively. Both univariate and multivariate analysis showed that clinical SYNTAX score was the independent predictor of MACCE. ROC analysis showed both SYNTAX score (AUC = 0.667, P = 0.004) and clinical SYNTAX score (AUC = 0.636, P = 0.020) had predictive value of MACCE. Clinical SYNTAX score failed to show better predictive ability than the SYNTAX score. Both SYNTAX score and clinical SYNTAX score could be independent risk predictors for MACCE among patients with three-vessel or left-main coronary artery disease undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention. Clinical SYNTAX score failed to show better predictive ability than the SYNTAX score in this group of patients.

  10. Concomitant semi-quantitative and visual analysis improves the predictive value on treatment outcome of interim 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose / Positron Emission Tomography in advanced Hodgkin lymphoma.

    PubMed

    Biggi, Alberto; Bergesio, Fabrizio; Chauvie, Stephane; Bianchi, Andrea; Menga, Massimo; Fallanca, Federico; Hutchings, Martin; Gregianin, Michele; Meignan, Michel; Gallamini, Andrea

    2017-07-27

    Qualitative assessment using the Deauville five-point scale (DS) is the gold standard for interim and end-of treatment PET interpretation in lymphoma. In the present study we assessed the reliability and the prognostic value of different semi- quantitative (SQ) parameters in comparison with DS for interim PET (iPET) interpretation in Hodgkin lymphoma (HL). A cohort of 82 out of 260 patients with advanced stage HL enrolled in the International Validation Study (IVS), scored as 3 to 5 by the expert panel was included in the present report. Two nuclear medicine physicians blinded to patient history, clinical data and treatment outcome reviewed independently the iPET using the following parameters: DS, SUVMax, SUVPeak of the most active lesion, QMax (ratio of SUVMax of the lesion to liver SUVMax) and QRes (ratio of SUVPeak of the lesion to liver SUVMean). The optimal sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value to predict treatment outcome was calculated for all the above parameters with the Receiver Operator Characteristics analysis. The prognostic value of all parameters were similar, the best cut-off value being 4 for DS (Area Under the Curve, AUC, 0.81 CI95%: 0.72-0.90), 3.81 for SUVMax (AUC 0.82 CI95%: 0.73-0.91), 3.20 for SUVPeak (AUC 0.86 CI95%: 0.77-0.94), 1.07 for QMax (AUC 0.84 CI95%: 0.75-0.93) and 1.38 for QRes (AUC 0.84 CI95%: 0.75-0.93). The reproducibility of different parameters was similar as the inter-observer variability measured with Cohen's kappa were 0.93 (95% CI 0.84-1.01) for the DS, 0.88 (0.77-0.98) for SUVMax, 0.82 (0.70-0.95) for SUVPeak, 0.85 (0.74-0.97) for QRes and 0.78 (0.65-0.92) for QMax. Due to the high specificity of SUVPeak (0.87) and to the good sensitivity of DS (0.86), upon the use of both parameters the positive predictive value increased from 0.65 of the DS alone to 0.79. When both parameters were positive in iPET, 3-years Failure-Free Survival (FFS) was significantly lower compared to patients whose iPET was

  11. The accuracy of new wheelchair users' predictions about their future wheelchair use.

    PubMed

    Hoenig, Helen; Griffiths, Patricia; Ganesh, Shanti; Caves, Kevin; Harris, Frances

    2012-06-01

    This study examined the accuracy of new wheelchair user predictions about their future wheelchair use. This was a prospective cohort study of 84 community-dwelling veterans provided a new manual wheelchair. The association between predicted and actual wheelchair use was strong at 3 mos (ϕ coefficient = 0.56), with 90% of those who anticipated using the wheelchair at 3 mos still using it (i.e., positive predictive value = 0.96) and 60% of those who anticipated not using it indeed no longer using the wheelchair (i.e., negative predictive value = 0.60, overall accuracy = 0.92). Predictive accuracy diminished over time, with overall accuracy declining from 0.92 at 3 mos to 0.66 at 6 mos. At all time points, and for all types of use, patients better predicted use as opposed to disuse, with correspondingly higher positive than negative predictive values. Accuracy of prediction of use in specific indoor and outdoor locations varied according to location. This study demonstrates the importance of better understanding the potential mismatch between the anticipated and actual patterns of wheelchair use. The findings suggest that users can be relied upon to accurately predict their basic wheelchair-related needs in the short-term. Further exploration is needed to identify characteristics that will aid users and their providers in more accurately predicting mobility needs for the long-term.

  12. A two step Bayesian approach for genomic prediction of breeding values.

    PubMed

    Shariati, Mohammad M; Sørensen, Peter; Janss, Luc

    2012-05-21

    In genomic models that assign an individual variance to each marker, the contribution of one marker to the posterior distribution of the marker variance is only one degree of freedom (df), which introduces many variance parameters with only little information per variance parameter. A better alternative could be to form clusters of markers with similar effects where markers in a cluster have a common variance. Therefore, the influence of each marker group of size p on the posterior distribution of the marker variances will be p df. The simulated data from the 15th QTL-MAS workshop were analyzed such that SNP markers were ranked based on their effects and markers with similar estimated effects were grouped together. In step 1, all markers with minor allele frequency more than 0.01 were included in a SNP-BLUP prediction model. In step 2, markers were ranked based on their estimated variance on the trait in step 1 and each 150 markers were assigned to one group with a common variance. In further analyses, subsets of 1500 and 450 markers with largest effects in step 2 were kept in the prediction model. Grouping markers outperformed SNP-BLUP model in terms of accuracy of predicted breeding values. However, the accuracies of predicted breeding values were lower than Bayesian methods with marker specific variances. Grouping markers is less flexible than allowing each marker to have a specific marker variance but, by grouping, the power to estimate marker variances increases. A prior knowledge of the genetic architecture of the trait is necessary for clustering markers and appropriate prior parameterization.

  13. The predictive value of the sacral base pressure test in detecting specific types of sacroiliac dysfunction

    PubMed Central

    Mitchell, Travis D.; Urli, Kristina E.; Breitenbach, Jacques; Yelverton, Chris

    2007-01-01

    Abstract Objective This study aimed to evaluate the validity of the sacral base pressure test in diagnosing sacroiliac joint dysfunction. It also determined the predictive powers of the test in determining which type of sacroiliac joint dysfunction was present. Methods This was a double-blind experimental study with 62 participants. The results from the sacral base pressure test were compared against a cluster of previously validated tests of sacroiliac joint dysfunction to determine its validity and predictive powers. The external rotation of the feet, occurring during the sacral base pressure test, was measured using a digital inclinometer. Results There was no statistically significant difference in the results of the sacral base pressure test between the types of sacroiliac joint dysfunction. In terms of the results of validity, the sacral base pressure test was useful in identifying positive values of sacroiliac joint dysfunction. It was fairly helpful in correctly diagnosing patients with negative test results; however, it had only a “slight” agreement with the diagnosis for κ interpretation. Conclusions In this study, the sacral base pressure test was not a valid test for determining the presence of sacroiliac joint dysfunction or the type of dysfunction present. Further research comparing the agreement of the sacral base pressure test or other sacroiliac joint dysfunction tests with a criterion standard of diagnosis is necessary. PMID:19674694

  14. Threshold Values for Identification of Contamination Predicted by Reduced-Order Models

    DOE PAGES

    Last, George V.; Murray, Christopher J.; Bott, Yi-Ju; ...

    2014-12-31

    The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) Project is developing reduced-order models to evaluate potential impacts on underground sources of drinking water (USDWs) if CO2 or brine leaks from deep CO2 storage reservoirs. Threshold values, below which there would be no predicted impacts, were determined for portions of two aquifer systems. These threshold values were calculated using an interwell approach for determining background groundwater concentrations that is an adaptation of methods described in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Unified Guidance for Statistical Analysis of Groundwater Monitoring Data at RCRA Facilities.

  15. Predictive value of early near-infrared spectroscopy monitoring of patients with traumatic brain injury.

    PubMed

    Vilkė, Alina; Bilskienė, Diana; Šaferis, Viktoras; Gedminas, Martynas; Bieliauskaitė, Dalia; Tamašauskas, Arimantas; Macas, Andrius

    2014-01-01

    Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is the leading cause of death and disability in young adults. Study aimed to define the predictive value of early near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) monitoring of TBI patients in a Lithuanian clinical setting. Data of 61 patients was analyzed. Predictive value of early NIRS monitoring, computed tomography data and regular intensive care unit (ICU) parameters was investigated. Twenty-six patients expressed clinically severe TBI; 14 patients deceased. Patients who survived expressed higher NIRS values at the periods of admission to operative room (75.4%±9.8% vs. 71.0%±20.5%; P=0.013) and 1h after admission to ICU (74.7%±1.5% vs. 61.9%±19.4%; P=0.029). The NIRS values discriminated hospital mortality groups more accurately than admission GCS score, blood sugar or hemoglobin levels. Admission INR value and NIRS value at 1h after admission to ICU were selected by discriminant analysis into the optimal set of features when classifying hospital mortality groups. Average efficiency of classification using this method was 88.9%. When rsO2 values at 1h after admission to ICU did not exceed 68.0% in the left hemisphere and 68.3% in the right hemisphere, the hazard ratio for death increased by 17.7 times (P<0.01) and 5.1 times (P<0.05), respectively. NIRS plays an important role in the clinical care of TBI patients. Regional brain saturation monitoring provides accurate predictive data, which can improve the allocation of scarce medical resources, set the treatment goals and alleviate the early communication with patients' relatives. Copyright © 2014 Lithuanian University of Health Sciences. Production and hosting by Elsevier Urban & Partner Sp. z o.o. All rights reserved.

  16. The Role of Negative Affect and Self-Concept Clarity in Predicting Self-Injurious Urges in Borderline Personality Disorder Using Ecological Momentary Assessment.

    PubMed

    Scala, J Wesley; Levy, Kenneth N; Johnson, Benjamin N; Kivity, Yogev; Ellison, William D; Pincus, Aaron L; Wilson, Stephen J; Newman, Michelle G

    2018-01-01

    Deficits in identity as well as negative affect have been shown to predict self-injurious and suicidal behaviors in individuals with borderline personality disorder (BPD). However, less is known about the interactive effects of these two predictors. We examined the moderating effect of a particular component of identity, self-concept, on the relationship between negative affect and self-injurious urges utilizing ecological momentary assessments. Outpatients diagnosed with either BPD (n = 36) or any anxiety disorder but no BPD (n = 18) completed surveys throughout the day over a 21-day period. Higher levels of momentary negative affect predicted greater subsequent urges to self-injure, but only when self-concept clarity was low (z = -3.60, p < .01). This effect did not differ between diagnostic groups. The results suggest that self-concept clarity has a protective effect against self-injurious urges in light of high negative affect, and that this effect may be transdiagnostic.

  17. Sensitivity and positive predictive value of CT, MRI and 123I-MIBG scintigraphy in localizing pheochromocytomas: a prospective study.

    PubMed

    Lumachi, Franco; Tregnaghi, Alberto; Zucchetta, Pietro; Cristina Marzola, Maria; Cecchin, Diego; Grassetto, Gaia; Bui, Franco

    2006-07-01

    To establish a standardized non-invasive imaging protocol for patients with pheochromocytoma undergoing surgery. A series of 32 consecutive patients (16 men, 16 women; median age 43 years, range 15-71 years) with biochemically confirmed pheochromocytoma underwent computed tomography (CT) scanning, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and meta-[I]iodobenzylguanidine (MIBG) whole-body scintigraphy prior to adrenalectomy or excision of extra-adrenal tumour (paraganglioma). At final pathology no malignant pheochromocytomas were found. The tumour was right-sided in 16 (50%) patients, left-sided in 13 (41%), extra-adrenal (sympathetic ganglia, upper abdomen) in two (6%) and bilateral in one (3%) patient. Overall, the median greatest diameter (size) of the tumour was 35 mm (range, 15-90 mm). The sensitivity of CT, MRI and MIBG scintigraphy was 90%, 93% and 91%, and the specificity was 93%, 93% and 100%, respectively. The three patients with false negative scintigraphy had an intra-adrenal tumour, ranging from 20 to 50 mm in size. The presence of necrosis within the mass might justify the lack of significant uptake of radiopharmaceutical in two patients, and the small size (15 mm) of the mass in the other. There were two false positive results with both CT and MRI, and no false positive MIBG scintigraphy, which had the highest (100%) positive predictive value. The combination of MRI+MIBG scintigraphy reached 100% sensitivity and positive predictive value. Our data suggest that this imaging protocol should be used in all patients with biochemically confirmed pheochromocytoma.

  18. Motivational state controls the prediction error in Pavlovian appetitive-aversive interactions.

    PubMed

    Laurent, Vincent; Balleine, Bernard W; Westbrook, R Frederick

    2018-01-01

    Contemporary theories of learning emphasize the role of a prediction error signal in driving learning, but the nature of this signal remains hotly debated. Here, we used Pavlovian conditioning in rats to investigate whether primary motivational and emotional states interact to control prediction error. We initially generated cues that positively or negatively predicted an appetitive food outcome. We then assessed how these cues modulated aversive conditioning when a novel cue was paired with a foot shock. We found that a positive predictor of food enhances, whereas a negative predictor of that same food impairs, aversive conditioning. Critically, we also showed that the enhancement produced by the positive predictor is removed by reducing the value of its associated food. In contrast, the impairment triggered by the negative predictor remains insensitive to devaluation of its associated food. These findings provide compelling evidence that the motivational value attributed to a predicted food outcome can directly control appetitive-aversive interactions and, therefore, that motivational processes can modulate emotional processes to generate the final error term on which subsequent learning is based. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Predicting Bullying: Exploring the Contributions of Childhood Negative Life Experiences in Predicting Adolescent Bullying Behavior.

    PubMed

    Connell, Nadine M; Morris, Robert G; Piquero, Alex R

    2016-07-01

    Although there has been much interest in research on aggression and in particular bullying, a relatively less charted area of research has centered on articulating a better understanding of the mechanisms and processes by which persons are at increased risk for bullying. Furthermore, those studies that have investigated the linkages between childhood experiences and bullying perpetration have been limited with respect to definitional and operational issues, reliance on cross-sectional data, and the lack of assessing competing explanations of bullying perpetration. Using five waves of data from a community-based longitudinal sample of children followed through age 18 (N = 763), the current study examines the extent to which childhood negative life events in a variety of domains predict adolescent bullying. Results show that early childhood experiences, particularly those within the family and school domains, may alter life trajectories and can act as predictors for later adolescent bullying, thereby underscoring the potential importance that relatively minor experiences can have over the long term. Implications for future research based on these analyses are examined. © The Author(s) 2015.

  20. Predictive value of focused assessment with sonography for trauma (FAST) for laparotomy in unstable polytrauma Egyptians patients.

    PubMed

    Elbaih, Adel Hamed; Abu-Elela, Sameh T

    2017-12-01

    The emergency physicians face significant clinical uncertainty when multiple trauma patients arrive in the emergency department (ED). The priorities for assessment and treatment of polytrauma patients are established in the primary survey. Focused assessment with sonography for trauma (FAST) is very essential clinical skill during trauma resuscitation. Use of point of care ultrasound among the trauma team working in the primary survey in emergency care settings is lacking in Suez Canal University Hospitals even ultrasound machine not available in ED. This study aims to evaluate the accuracy of FAST in hemodynamically unstable polytraumatized patients and to determine its role as an indication of laparotomy. This study is a cross-sectional study included 150 polytrauma patients with a blunt mechanism admitted in Suez Canal University Hospital. Firstly primary survey by airway check, cervical spine securing with neck collar, maintenance of breathing/circulation and management of life threading conditions if present were conducted accordingly to ATLS (advanced trauma life support) guidelines. The patients were assessed in the primary survey using the FAST as a tool to determine the presence of intra-abdominal collection. A total of 150 patients, and FAST scans were performed in all cases. The sensitivity and specificity were 92.6% and 100%, respectively. The negative predictive value was 92%, while the positive predictive value of FAST was 100%. The accuracy of FAST was 96%. FAST is an important method to detect intra-abdominal fluid in the initial assessment in hemodynamically unstable polytrauma patients with high accuracy. Copyright © 2017 Daping Hospital and the Research Institute of Surgery of the Third Military Medical University. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. The predictive value of mean serum uric acid levels for developing prediabetes.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Qing; Bao, Xue; Meng, Ge; Liu, Li; Wu, Hongmei; Du, Huanmin; Shi, Hongbin; Xia, Yang; Guo, Xiaoyan; Liu, Xing; Li, Chunlei; Su, Qian; Gu, Yeqing; Fang, Liyun; Yu, Fei; Yang, Huijun; Yu, Bin; Sun, Shaomei; Wang, Xing; Zhou, Ming; Jia, Qiyu; Zhao, Honglin; Huang, Guowei; Song, Kun; Niu, Kaijun

    2016-08-01

    We aimed to assess the predictive value of mean serum uric acid (SUA) levels for incident prediabetes. Normoglycemic adults (n=39,353) were followed for a median of 3.0years. Prediabetes is defined as impaired fasting glucose (IFG), impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), or impaired HbA1c (IA1c), based on the American Diabetes Association criteria. Serum SUA levels were measured annually. Four diagnostic strategies were used to detect prediabetes in four separate analyses (Analysis 1: IFG. Analysis 2: IFG+IGT. Analysis 3: IFG+IA1c. Analysis 4: IFG+IGT+IA1c). Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to assess the relationship between SUA quintiles and prediabetes. C-statistic was additionally used in the final analysis to assess the accuracy of predictions based upon baseline SUA and mean SUA, respectively. After adjustment for potential confounders, the hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) of prediabetes for the highest versus lowest quintile of mean SUA were 1.22 (1.10, 1.36) in analysis 1; 1.59 (1.23, 2.05) in analysis 2; 1.62 (1.34, 1.95) in analysis 3 and 1.67 (1.31, 2.13) in analysis 4. In contrast, for baseline SUA, significance was only reached in analyses 3 and 4. Moreover, compared with baseline SUA, mean SUA value was associated with a significant increase in the C-statistic (P<0.001). Mean SUA value was strongly and positively related to prediabetes risk, and showed better predictive ability for prediabetes than baseline SUA. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Predicting breast cancer using an expression values weighted clinical classifier.

    PubMed

    Thomas, Minta; De Brabanter, Kris; Suykens, Johan A K; De Moor, Bart

    2014-12-31

    Clinical data, such as patient history, laboratory analysis, ultrasound parameters-which are the basis of day-to-day clinical decision support-are often used to guide the clinical management of cancer in the presence of microarray data. Several data fusion techniques are available to integrate genomics or proteomics data, but only a few studies have created a single prediction model using both gene expression and clinical data. These studies often remain inconclusive regarding an obtained improvement in prediction performance. To improve clinical management, these data should be fully exploited. This requires efficient algorithms to integrate these data sets and design a final classifier. LS-SVM classifiers and generalized eigenvalue/singular value decompositions are successfully used in many bioinformatics applications for prediction tasks. While bringing up the benefits of these two techniques, we propose a machine learning approach, a weighted LS-SVM classifier to integrate two data sources: microarray and clinical parameters. We compared and evaluated the proposed methods on five breast cancer case studies. Compared to LS-SVM classifier on individual data sets, generalized eigenvalue decomposition (GEVD) and kernel GEVD, the proposed weighted LS-SVM classifier offers good prediction performance, in terms of test area under ROC Curve (AUC), on all breast cancer case studies. Thus a clinical classifier weighted with microarray data set results in significantly improved diagnosis, prognosis and prediction responses to therapy. The proposed model has been shown as a promising mathematical framework in both data fusion and non-linear classification problems.

  3. Predicting Success in an Online Course Using Expectancies, Values, and Typical Mode of Instruction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zimmerman, Whitney Alicia

    2017-01-01

    Expectancies of success and values were used to predict success in an online undergraduate-level introductory statistics course. Students who identified as primarily face-to-face learners were compared to students who identified as primarily online learners. Expectancy value theory served as a model. Expectancies of success were operationalized as…

  4. Rapid detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis and rifampicin resistance in extrapulmonary tuberculosis and sputum smear-negative pulmonary suspects using Xpert MTB/RIF.

    PubMed

    Ullah, Irfan; Javaid, Arshad; Masud, Haleema; Ali, Mazhar; Basit, Anila; Ahmad, Waqas; Younis, Faisal; Yasmin, Rehana; Khan, Afsar; Jabbar, Abdul; Husain, Masroor; Butt, Zahid Ahmad

    2017-04-01

    Tuberculosis (TB) is a serious public health problem in developing countries such as Pakistan. Rapid diagnosis of TB and detection of drug resistance are very important for timely and appropriate management of multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB). The purpose of this study was to determine the diagnostic efficacy of the Xpert MTB/RIF assay for rapid diagnosis of TB and detection of rifampicin (RIF) resistance in extrapulmonary and smear-negative pulmonary TB suspects. A total of 98 bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) and 168 extrapulmonary specimens were processed by Xpert MTB/RIF. Culture results are considered as the gold standard for diagnosis of TB, and drug susceptibility testing for detection of RIF resistance. Diagnostic efficacy was measured in terms of sensitivity, specificity and positive and negative predictive values. The Xpert MTB/RIF assay detected 40 (40.8 %) of 98 BALF of presumptive pulmonary TB and 60 (35.7 %) of 168 extrapulmonary specimens. Sensitivity and specificity of the Xpert MTB/RIF assay for detection of TB was 86 and 88.4 %, respectively. The positive predictive value was 71.5 % while negative predictive value was 95.1 %. The Xpert MTB/RIF assay is a rapid and simple technique with high sensitivity and specificity for diagnosing TB and detecting drug resistance in extrapulmonary and smear-negative TB cases.

  5. Negative-assortative mating for color in wolves.

    PubMed

    Hedrick, Philip W; Smith, Douglas W; Stahler, Daniel R

    2016-04-01

    There is strong negative-assortative mating for gray and black pelage color in the iconic wolves in Yellowstone National Park. This is the first documented case of significant negative-assortative mating in mammals and one of only a very few cases in vertebrates. Of 261 matings documented from 1995 to 2015, 63.6% were between gray and black wolves and the correlation between mates for color was -0.266. There was a similar excess of matings of both gray males × black females and black males × gray females. Using the observed frequency of negative-assortative mating in a model with both random and negative-assortative mating, the estimated proportion of negative-assortative mating was 0.430. The estimated frequency of black wolves in the population from 1996 to 2014 was 0.452 and these frequencies appear stable over this 19-year period. Using the estimated level of negative-assortative mating, the predicted equilibrium frequency of the dominant allele was 0.278, very close to the mean value of 0.253 observed. In addition, the patterns of genotype frequencies, that is, the observed proportion of black homozygotes and the observed excess of black heterozygotes, are consistent with negative-assortative mating. Importantly these results demonstrate that negative-assortative mating could be entirely responsible for the maintenance of this well-known color polymorphism. © 2016 The Author(s). Evolution © 2016 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  6. Prediction of pulmonary hypertension in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis☆

    PubMed Central

    Zisman, David A.; Ross, David J.; Belperio, John A.; Saggar, Rajan; Lynch, Joseph P.; Ardehali, Abbas; Karlamangla, Arun S.

    2007-01-01

    Summary Background Reliable, noninvasive approaches to the diagnosis of pulmonary hypertension in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis are needed. We tested the hypothesis that the forced vital capacity to diffusing capacity ratio and room air resting pulse oximetry may be combined to predict mean pulmonary artery pressure (MPAP) in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. Methods Sixty-one idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis patients with available right-heart catheterization were studied. We regressed measured MPAP as a continuous variable on pulse oximetry (SpO2) and percent predicted forced vital capacity (FVC) to percent-predicted diffusing capacity ratio (% FVC/% DLco) in a multivariable linear regression model. Results Linear regression generated the following equation: MPAP = −11.9+0.272 × SpO2+0.0659 × (100−SpO2)2+3.06 × (% FVC/% DLco); adjusted R2 = 0.55, p<0.0001. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive and negative predictive value of model-predicted pulmonary hypertension were 71% (95% confidence interval (CI): 50–89%), 81% (95% CI: 68–92%), 71% (95% CI: 51–87%) and 81% (95% CI: 68–94%). Conclusions A pulmonary hypertension predictor based on room air resting pulse oximetry and FVC to diffusing capacity ratio has a relatively high negative predictive value. However, this model will require external validation before it can be used in clinical practice. PMID:17604151

  7. Sirc-cvs cytotoxicity test: an alternative for predicting rodent acute systemic toxicity.

    PubMed

    Kitagaki, Masato; Wakuri, Shinobu; Hirota, Morihiko; Tanaka, Noriho; Itagaki, Hiroshi

    2006-10-01

    An in vitro crystal violet staining method using the rabbit cornea-derived cell line (SIRC-CVS) has been developed as an alternative to predict acute systemic toxicity in rodents. Seventy-nine chemicals, the in vitro cytotoxicity of which was already reported by the Multicenter Evaluation of In vitro Toxicity (MEIC) and ICCVAM/ECVAM, were selected as test compounds. The cells were incubated with the chemicals for 72 hrs and the IC(50) and IC(35) values (microg/mL) were obtained. The results were compared to the in vivo (rat or mouse) "most toxic" oral, intraperitoneal, subcutaneous and intravenous LD(50) values (mg/kg) taken from the RTECS database for each of the chemicals by using Pearson's correlation statistics. The following parameters were calculated: accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, prevalence, positive predictability, and negative predictability. Good linear correlations (Pearson's coefficient; r>0.6) were observed between either the IC(50) or the IC(35) values and all the LD(50) values. Among them, a statistically significant high correlation (r=0.8102, p<0.001) required for acute systemic toxicity prediction was obtained between the IC(50) values and the oral LD(50) values. By using the cut-off concentrations of 2,000 mg/kg (LD(50)) and 4,225 microg/mL (IC(50)), no false negatives were observed, and the accuracy was 84.8%. From this, it is concluded that this method could be used to predict the acute systemic toxicity potential of chemicals in rodents.

  8. Perceiving social pressure not to feel negative predicts depressive symptoms in daily life.

    PubMed

    Dejonckheere, Egon; Bastian, Brock; Fried, Eiko I; Murphy, Sean C; Kuppens, Peter

    2017-09-01

    Western societies often overemphasize the pursuit of happiness, and regard negative feelings such as sadness or anxiety as maladaptive and unwanted. Despite this emphasis on happiness, the amount of people suffering from depressive complaints is remarkably high. To explain this apparent paradox, we examined whether experiencing social pressure not to feel sad or anxious could in fact contribute to depressive symptoms. A sample of individuals (n = 112) with elevated depression scores (Patient Health Questionnaire [PHQ-9] ≥ 10) took part in an online daily diary study in which they rated their depressive symptoms and perceived social pressure not to feel depressed or anxious for 30 consecutive days. Using multilevel VAR models, we investigated the temporal relation between this perceived social pressure and depressive symptoms to determine directionality. Primary analyses consistently indicated that experiencing social pressure predicts increases in both overall severity scores and most individual symptoms of depression, but not vice versa. A set of secondary analyses, in which we adopted a network perspective on depression, confirmed these findings. Using this approach, centrality analysis revealed that perceived social pressure not to feel negative plays an instigating role in depression, reflected by the high out- and low instrength centrality of this pressure in the various depression networks. Together, these findings indicate how perceived societal norms may contribute to depression, hinting at a possible malignant consequence of society's denouncement of negative emotions. Clinical implications are discussed. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  9. Shunting normal pressure hydrocephalus: the predictive value of combined clinical and CT data.

    PubMed

    Vanneste, J; Augustijn, P; Tan, W F; Dirven, C

    1993-03-01

    The value of an ordinal global scale derived from combined clinical and CT data (clin/CT scale) to predict the clinical outcome in 112 patients shunted for presumed normal pressure hydrocephalus (NPH) was analysed. The clinical data were retrospectively collected, all CT scans were re-evaluated, and the clin/CT scale was determined blind to the results of further ancillary tests and to the post-surgical outcome. The scale ranked three classes of prediction: on the basis of clinical and CT characteristics, improvement after shunting was probable, possible, or improbable. The predictive value of the clin/CT scale for the subgroup of communicating NPH was established for two different strategies, depending on the strictness of selection criteria for shunting. In the subgroup of patients with presumed communicating NPH, the prevalence of shunt responsiveness was 29%; the best strategy was to shunt only patients with probable shunt-responsive NPH: the sensitivity was 0.54, the specificity 0.84, and the predictive accuracy 0.75, with a limited number of ineffective shunts (11%) and missed improvements (13%). The study illustrates its need to assess the pre-test probability of NPH based on combined clinical and CT data, before establishing the clinical usefulness of an ancillary test.

  10. Shunting normal pressure hydrocephalus: the predictive value of combined clinical and CT data.

    PubMed Central

    Vanneste, J; Augustijn, P; Tan, W F; Dirven, C

    1993-01-01

    The value of an ordinal global scale derived from combined clinical and CT data (clin/CT scale) to predict the clinical outcome in 112 patients shunted for presumed normal pressure hydrocephalus (NPH) was analysed. The clinical data were retrospectively collected, all CT scans were re-evaluated, and the clin/CT scale was determined blind to the results of further ancillary tests and to the post-surgical outcome. The scale ranked three classes of prediction: on the basis of clinical and CT characteristics, improvement after shunting was probable, possible, or improbable. The predictive value of the clin/CT scale for the subgroup of communicating NPH was established for two different strategies, depending on the strictness of selection criteria for shunting. In the subgroup of patients with presumed communicating NPH, the prevalence of shunt responsiveness was 29%; the best strategy was to shunt only patients with probable shunt-responsive NPH: the sensitivity was 0.54, the specificity 0.84, and the predictive accuracy 0.75, with a limited number of ineffective shunts (11%) and missed improvements (13%). The study illustrates its need to assess the pre-test probability of NPH based on combined clinical and CT data, before establishing the clinical usefulness of an ancillary test. PMID:8459240

  11. Added Value of Contrast-Enhanced Spectral Mammography in Postscreening Assessment.

    PubMed

    Tardivel, Anne-Marie; Balleyguier, Corinne; Dunant, Ariane; Delaloge, Suzette; Mazouni, Chafika; Mathieu, Marie-Christine; Dromain, Clarisse

    2016-09-01

    To assess the value on diagnostic and treatment management of contrast-enhanced spectral mammography (CESM), as adjunct to mammography (MG) and ultrasound (US) in postscreening in a breast cancer unit for patients with newly diagnosed breast cancer or with suspicious findings on conventional imaging. Retrospective review of routine use of bilateral CESM performed between September 2012 and September 2013 in 195 women with suspicious or undetermined findings on MG and/or US. CESM images were blindly reviewed by two radiologists for BI-RADS(®) assessment and probability of malignancy. Each lesion was definitely confirmed either with histopathology or follow-up. Two hundred and ninety-nine lesions were detected (221 malignant). CESM sensitivity, specificity, positive-predictive value and negative-predictive value were 94% (CI: 89-96%), 74% (CI: 63-83%), 91% (CI: 86-94%) and 81% (CI: 70-89%), respectively, with 18 false positive and 14 false negative. CESM changed diagnostic and treatment strategy in 41 (21%) patients either after detection of additional malignant lesions in 38 patients (19%)-with a more extensive surgery (n = 21) or neo-adjuvant chemotherapy (n = 1)-or avoiding further biopsy for 20 patients with negative CESM. CESM can be performed easily in a clinical assessment after positive breast cancer screening and may change significantly the diagnostic and treatment strategy through breast cancer staging. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Sensitivity, Specificity, PPV, and NPV for Predictive Biomarkers

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Molecularly targeted cancer drugs are often developed with companion diagnostics that attempt to identify which patients will have better outcome on the new drug than the control regimen. Such predictive biomarkers are playing an increasingly important role in precision oncology. For diagnostic tests, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive are usually used as performance measures. This paper discusses these indices for predictive biomarkers, provides methods for their calculation with survival or response endpoints, and describes assumptions involved in their use. PMID:26109105

  13. Can blood and semen presepsin levels in males predict pregnancy in couples undergoing intra-cytoplasmic sperm injection?

    PubMed Central

    Ovayolu, Ali; Arslanbuğa, Cansev Yilmaz; Gun, Ismet; Devranoglu, Belgin; Ozdemir, Arman; Cakar, Sule Eren

    2016-01-01

    Objective: To determine whether semen and plasma presepsin values measured in men with normozoospermia and oligoasthenospermia undergoing invitro-fertilization would be helpful in predicting ongoing pregnancy and live birth. Methods: Group-I was defined as patients who had pregnancy after treatment and Group-II comprised those with no pregnancy. Semen and blood presepsin values were subsequently compared between the groups. Parametric comparisons were performed using Student’s t-test, and non-parametric comparisons were conducted using the Mann-Whitney U test. Results: There were 42 patients in Group-I and 72 in Group-II. In the context of successful pregnancy and live birth, semen presepsin values were statistically significantly higher in Group-I than in Group-II (p= 0.004 and p= 0.037, respectively). The most appropriate semen presepsin cut-off value for predicting both ongoing pregnancy and live birth was calculated as 199 pg/mL. Accordingly, their sensitivity was 64.5% to 59.3%, their specificity was 57.0% to 54.2%, and their positive predictive value was 37.0% to 29.6%, respectively; their negative predictive value was 80.4% in both instances. Conclusion: Semen presepsin values could be a new marker that may enable the prediction of successful pregnancy and/or live birth. Its negative predictive values are especially high. PMID:27882005

  14. Repeat sentinel lymph node biopsy in patients with ipsilateral recurrent breast cancer after breast-conserving therapy and negative sentinel lymph node biopsy: a prospective study.

    PubMed

    Folli, Secondo; Falco, Giuseppe; Mingozzi, Matteo; Buggi, Federico; Curcio, Annalisa; Ferrari, Guglielmo; Taffurelli, Mario; Regolo, Lea; Nanni, Oriana

    2016-04-01

    Patients with ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence or new ipsilateral primary tumor after previous breast conservative surgery with negative sentinel lymph node biopsy need a new axillary staging procedure. However, the best surgical option, i.e. repeat sentinel lymph node biopsy or axillary lymph node dissection, is still debated. Purpose of the study is to assess the performance of repeat sentinel lymph node biopsy. In a multicenter study, lymph node biopsy completed by back-up axillary lymph node dissection was undertaken for ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence or new ipsilateral primary tumor. Tracer uptake was used to identify and isolate the sentinel lymph node during surgery, and it was classified after staining with hematoxylin and eosin and monoclonal anti-cytokeratin antibodies. Aside from negative predictive value, overall accuracy and false-negative rate of repeat sentinel lymph node biopsy were assessed. A multicenter, prospective study was conducted performing 30 repeat sentinel lymph node biopsy completed by back-up axillary lymph node dissection for ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence or new ipsilateral primary tumor in patients formerly treated with previous breast conservative surgery and negative sentinel lymph node biopsy. Negative predictive value, overall accuracy and false-negative rate of repeat sentinel lymph node biopsy were assessed. Sentinel lymph nodes were mapped in 27 patients out of 30 (90%). Aberrant drainage pathways were observed in one patient (3.7%). Tracer uptake was sufficient to identify and isolate the sentinel lymph node during surgery in 23 cases (76.6%); the patients in whom lymphoscintigraphy failed or no sentinel lymph nodes could be isolated underwent axillary lymph node dissection. The negative predictive value was 95.2%, the accuracy was 95.6% and the false-negative rate was 33%. Repeat sentinel lymph node biopsy is feasible and accurate, with a high negative predictive value. Patients with ipsilateral breast tumor

  15. Predictive value of the complex magnetocardiographic index in patients with intermediate pretest probability of chronic coronary artery disease: results of a two-center study.

    PubMed

    Chaikovsky, Illya; Hailer, Birgit; Sosnytskyy, Volodymyr; Lutay, Mykhaylo; Mjasnikov, Georgiy; Kazmirchuk, Anatoly; Bydnyk, Mykola; Lomakovskyy, Alexander; Sosnytskaja, Taisia

    2014-09-01

    The aim of this paper is to investigate the predictive value of the new integrated magnetocardiographic (MCG) index (CI) in the diagnosis of coronary artery disease (CAD) in patients with suspected CAD with intermediate pretest probability of the disease and uninformative results of routine tests. The study was carried out in the Clinic of Cardiology of the Main Military Clinical Hospital of Ukraine, Kiev (clinic 1), and in the Second Medical Clinic of the 'Katholisches Klinikum Essen', Germany (clinic 2).The main group (group 1) included 89 patients without a history of myocardial infarction. Coronary angiography was performed because of chest pain. Depending on the results of coronary angiography, this group was divided into two subgroups: (i) those with at least 70% stenosis in at least one of the main coronary arteries (subgroup 1a) and (ii) those without hemodynamically significant stenosis (subgroup 1b). The control group included 43 healthy volunteers.In all participants, the MCG examination was performed using a seven-channel MCG system located in an unshielded room. An integrated MCG index (CI), consisting of six parameters, was calculated. It can be shown that CI was significantly higher in patients with stenosis 70% or more compared with the patients without stenosis and healthy volunteers. Sensitivity was 93%, specificity was 84%, positive predictive value was 85%, and negative predictive value was 93%. The MCG test at rest has the potential to be useful in the noninvasive diagnosis of CAD in patients with intermediate pretest probability of disease and uninformative results of routine tests.

  16. Predictive value of high sensitivity CRP in patients with diastolic heart failure.

    PubMed

    Michowitz, Yoav; Arbel, Yaron; Wexler, Dov; Sheps, David; Rogowski, Ori; Shapira, Itzhak; Berliner, Shlomo; Keren, Gad; George, Jacob; Roth, Arie

    2008-04-25

    C-reactive protein (CRP) has been tested in patients with systolic heart failure (HF) and mixed results have been obtained with regards to its potential predictive value. However, the role of C-reactive protein (CRP) in patients with diastolic HF is not established. We studied the predictive role of high sensitivity CRP (hsCRP) in patients with diastolic HF. HsCRP levels were measured in a cohort of CHF outpatients, 77 patients with diastolic HF and 217 patients with systolic HF. Concentrations were compared to a large cohort of healthy population (n=7701) and associated with the HF admissions and mortality of the patients. Levels of hsCRP did not differ between patients with systolic and diastolic HF and were significantly elevated compared to the cohort of healthy subjects even after adjustment to various clinical parameters (p<0.0001). In patients with diastolic HF, hsCRP levels associated with New York Heart Association functional class (NYHA-FC) (r=0.31 p=0.01). On univariate Cox regression model hsCRP levels independently predicted hospitalizations in patients with systolic but not diastolic HF (p=0.047). HsCRP concentrations are elevated in patients with diastolic HF and correlate with disease severity; their prognostic value in this patient population should be further investigated.

  17. Predicting lumber volume and value of young-growth true firs: user's guide.

    Treesearch

    Susan Ernst; W.Y. Pong

    1982-01-01

    Equations are presented for predicting the volume and value of young-growth red, white, and grand firs. Examples of how to use them are also given. These equations were developed on trees less than 140 years old from areas in southern Oregon, northern California, and Idaho.

  18. Predictive value of Borrelia burgdorferi IgG antibody levels in patients referred to a tertiary Lyme centre.

    PubMed

    Zwerink, M; Zomer, T P; van Kooten, B; Blaauw, G; van Bemmel, T; van Hees, B C; Vermeeren, Y M; Landman, G W

    2018-03-01

    A two-step testing strategy is recommended in serological testing for Lyme borreliosis; positive and indeterminate enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) results are confirmed with immunoblots. Several ELISAs quantify the concentration of antibodies tested, however, no recommendation exists for an upper cut-off value at which an IgG ELISA is sufficient and the immunoblot can be omitted. The study objective was to determine at which IgG antibody level an immunoblot does not have any additional predictive value compared to ELISA results. Data of adult patients who visited a tertiary Lyme centre between 2008 and 2014 were analysed. Both an ELISA (Enzygnost Lyme link VlsE IgG) and immunoblot (recomLine blot Borrelia) were performed. Clinical data were extracted from the patient's digital medical record. Positive predictive values (PPVs) for either previous or active infection with Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. were calculated for different cut-off ELISA IgG antibody levels where the immunoblot was regarded as reference test. In total, 1454 patients were included. According to the two-step test strategy, 486 (33%), 69 (5%) and 899 (62%) patients had positive, indeterminate and negative Borrelia IgG serology, respectively. At IgG levels of 500 IU/ml and higher, all immunoblots were positive, resulting in a 100% PPV (95% CI: 97.0-100). At IgG levels of 200 IU/ml and higher, the PPV was 99.3% (95% CI: 97.4-99.8). In conclusion, at IgG levels of 200 IU/ml and higher, an ELISA was sufficient to detect antibodies to Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. At those IgG levels, a confirmatory immunoblot may be omitted in patients referred to a tertiary Lyme centre. Before these results can be implemented in routine diagnosis of Lyme borreliosis, confirmation of the results is necessary in other patient populations and using other quantitative ELISAs and immunoblots. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  19. Prediction of near-term breast cancer risk using a Bayesian belief network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zheng, Bin; Ramalingam, Pandiyarajan; Hariharan, Harishwaran; Leader, Joseph K.; Gur, David

    2013-03-01

    Accurately predicting near-term breast cancer risk is an important prerequisite for establishing an optimal personalized breast cancer screening paradigm. In previous studies, we investigated and tested the feasibility of developing a unique near-term breast cancer risk prediction model based on a new risk factor associated with bilateral mammographic density asymmetry between the left and right breasts of a woman using a single feature. In this study we developed a multi-feature based Bayesian belief network (BBN) that combines bilateral mammographic density asymmetry with three other popular risk factors, namely (1) age, (2) family history, and (3) average breast density, to further increase the discriminatory power of our cancer risk model. A dataset involving "prior" negative mammography examinations of 348 women was used in the study. Among these women, 174 had breast cancer detected and verified in the next sequential screening examinations, and 174 remained negative (cancer-free). A BBN was applied to predict the risk of each woman having cancer detected six to 18 months later following the negative screening mammography. The prediction results were compared with those using single features. The prediction accuracy was significantly increased when using the BBN. The area under the ROC curve increased from an AUC=0.70 to 0.84 (p<0.01), while the positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) also increased from a PPV=0.61 to 0.78 and an NPV=0.65 to 0.75, respectively. This study demonstrates that a multi-feature based BBN can more accurately predict the near-term breast cancer risk than with a single feature.

  20. Endometrial Receptivity and its Predictive Value for IVF/ICSI-Outcome

    PubMed Central

    Heger, A.; Sator, M.; Pietrowski, D.

    2012-01-01

    Endometrial receptivity plays a crucial role in the establishment of a healthy pregnancy in cycles of assisted reproduction. The endometrium as a key factor during reproduction can be assessed in multiple ways, most commonly through transvaginal grey-scale or 3-D ultrasound. It has been shown that controlled ovarian hyperstimulation has a great impact on the uterine lining, which leads to different study results for the predictive value of endometrial factors measured on different cycle days. There is no clear consensus on whether endometrial factors are appropriate to predict treatment outcome and if so, which one is suited best. The aim of this review is to summarize recent findings of studies about the influence of endometrial thickness, volume and pattern on IVF- and ICSI-treatment outcome and provide an overview of future developments in the field. PMID:25258462

  1. Endometrial Receptivity and its Predictive Value for IVF/ICSI-Outcome.

    PubMed

    Heger, A; Sator, M; Pietrowski, D

    2012-08-01

    Endometrial receptivity plays a crucial role in the establishment of a healthy pregnancy in cycles of assisted reproduction. The endometrium as a key factor during reproduction can be assessed in multiple ways, most commonly through transvaginal grey-scale or 3-D ultrasound. It has been shown that controlled ovarian hyperstimulation has a great impact on the uterine lining, which leads to different study results for the predictive value of endometrial factors measured on different cycle days. There is no clear consensus on whether endometrial factors are appropriate to predict treatment outcome and if so, which one is suited best. The aim of this review is to summarize recent findings of studies about the influence of endometrial thickness, volume and pattern on IVF- and ICSI-treatment outcome and provide an overview of future developments in the field.

  2. Predictive value of serum sST2 in preschool wheezers for development of asthma with high FeNO.

    PubMed

    Ketelaar, M E; van de Kant, K D; Dijk, F N; Klaassen, E M; Grotenboer, N S; Nawijn, M C; Dompeling, E; Koppelman, G H

    2017-11-01

    Wheezing is common in childhood. However, current prediction models of pediatric asthma have only modest accuracy. Novel biomarkers and definition of subphenotypes may improve asthma prediction. Interleukin-1-receptor-like-1 (IL1RL1 or ST2) is a well-replicated asthma gene and associates with eosinophilia. We investigated whether serum sST2 predicts asthma and asthma with elevated exhaled NO (FeNO), compared to the commonly used Asthma Prediction Index (API). Using logistic regression modeling, we found that serum sST2 levels in 2-3 years-old wheezers do not predict doctors' diagnosed asthma at age 6 years. Instead, sST2 predicts a subphenotype of asthma characterized by increased levels of FeNO, a marker for eosinophilic airway inflammation. Herein, sST2 improved the predictive value of the API (AUC=0.70, 95% CI 0.56-0.84), but had also significant predictive value on its own (AUC=0.65, 95% CI 0.52-0.79). Our study indicates that sST2 in preschool wheezers has predictive value for the development of eosinophilic airway inflammation in asthmatic children at school age. © 2017 EAACI and John Wiley and Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley and Sons Ltd.

  3. Harsh Parenting and Fearfulness in Toddlerhood Interact to Predict Amplitudes of Preschool Error-Related Negativity

    PubMed Central

    Brooker, Rebecca J.; Buss, Kristin A.

    2014-01-01

    Temperamentally fearful children are at increased risk for the development of anxiety problems relative to less-fearful children. This risk is even greater when early environments include high levels of harsh parenting behaviors. However, the mechanisms by which harsh parenting may impact fearful children’s risk for anxiety problems are largely unknown. Recent neuroscience work has suggested that punishment is associated with exaggerated error-related negativity (ERN), an event-related potential linked to performance monitoring, even after the threat of punishment is removed. In the current study, we examined the possibility that harsh parenting interacts with fearfulness, impacting anxiety risk via neural processes of performance monitoring. We found that greater fearfulness and harsher parenting at 2 years of age predicted greater fearfulness and greater ERN amplitudes at age 4. Supporting the role of cognitive processes in this association, greater fearfulness and harsher parenting also predicted less efficient neural processing during preschool. This study provides initial evidence that performance monitoring may be a candidate process by which early parenting interacts with fearfulness to predict risk for anxiety problems. PMID:24721466

  4. Predicting the rate of change in timber value for forest stands infested with gypsy moth

    Treesearch

    David A. Gansner; Owen W. Herrick

    1982-01-01

    Presents a method for estimating the potential impact of gypsy moth attacks on forest-stand value. Robust regression analysis is used to develop an equation for predicting the rate of change in timber value from easy-to-measure key characteristics of stand condition.

  5. Dopamine reward prediction error coding.

    PubMed

    Schultz, Wolfram

    2016-03-01

    Reward prediction errors consist of the differences between received and predicted rewards. They are crucial for basic forms of learning about rewards and make us strive for more rewards-an evolutionary beneficial trait. Most dopamine neurons in the midbrain of humans, monkeys, and rodents signal a reward prediction error; they are activated by more reward than predicted (positive prediction error), remain at baseline activity for fully predicted rewards, and show depressed activity with less reward than predicted (negative prediction error). The dopamine signal increases nonlinearly with reward value and codes formal economic utility. Drugs of addiction generate, hijack, and amplify the dopamine reward signal and induce exaggerated, uncontrolled dopamine effects on neuronal plasticity. The striatum, amygdala, and frontal cortex also show reward prediction error coding, but only in subpopulations of neurons. Thus, the important concept of reward prediction errors is implemented in neuronal hardware.

  6. Dopamine reward prediction error coding

    PubMed Central

    Schultz, Wolfram

    2016-01-01

    Reward prediction errors consist of the differences between received and predicted rewards. They are crucial for basic forms of learning about rewards and make us strive for more rewards—an evolutionary beneficial trait. Most dopamine neurons in the midbrain of humans, monkeys, and rodents signal a reward prediction error; they are activated by more reward than predicted (positive prediction error), remain at baseline activity for fully predicted rewards, and show depressed activity with less reward than predicted (negative prediction error). The dopamine signal increases nonlinearly with reward value and codes formal economic utility. Drugs of addiction generate, hijack, and amplify the dopamine reward signal and induce exaggerated, uncontrolled dopamine effects on neuronal plasticity. The striatum, amygdala, and frontal cortex also show reward prediction error coding, but only in subpopulations of neurons. Thus, the important concept of reward prediction errors is implemented in neuronal hardware. PMID:27069377

  7. MRI based thrombolysis for FLAIR-negative stroke patients within 4.5-6h after symptom onset.

    PubMed

    Wei, Xiao-Er; Zhou, Jia; Li, Wen-Bin; Zhao, Yu-Wu; Li, Ming-Hua; Li, Yue-Hua

    2017-01-15

    To investigate the feasibility of DWI-FLAIR mismatch in identifying patients who might benefit from thrombolytic therapy within 4.5-6h, we analyzed the data of 105 ischemic stroke patients with known time of symptom onset who underwent MRI within 6h of stroke and thrombolysis between December 2006 and December 2013. They were divided into three groups: symptom onset within 4.5h (n=66); 4.5-6h and FLAIR images negative (n=9); and 4.5-6h and FLAIR images positive (n=30). Outcome of thrombolysis was assessed for each group by recanalization rate, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) and modified Rankin Scale (mRS) scores. The results showed that mismatch between positive DWI and negative FLAIR images identified patients within 4.5h of symptom onset with sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 40.9%, 76.9%, and 75% and 43.5%. Recanalization rate, NIHSS score and mRS score were all better in both the 0-4.5h and 4.5-6h FLAIR-negative groups than in the 4.5-6h FLAIR-positive group (p<0.05). These data demonstrate that within 4.5-6h of symptom onset, patients with negative FLAIR images may benefit from thrombolysis therapy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Possibility to Probe Negative Values of a Wigner Function in Scattering of a Coherent Superposition of Electronic Wave Packets by Atoms.

    PubMed

    Karlovets, Dmitry V; Serbo, Valeriy G

    2017-10-27

    Within a plane-wave approximation in scattering, an incoming wave packet's Wigner function stays positive everywhere, which obscures such purely quantum phenomena as nonlocality and entanglement. With the advent of the electron microscopes with subnanometer-sized beams, one can enter a genuinely quantum regime where the latter effects become only moderately attenuated. Here we show how to probe negative values of the Wigner function in scattering of a coherent superposition of two Gaussian packets with a nonvanishing impact parameter between them (a Schrödinger's cat state) by atomic targets. For hydrogen in the ground 1s state, a small parameter of the problem, a ratio a/σ_{⊥} of the Bohr radius a to the beam width σ_{⊥}, is no longer vanishing. We predict an azimuthal asymmetry of the scattered electrons, which is found to be up to 10%, and argue that it can be reliably detected. The production of beams with the not-everywhere-positive Wigner functions and the probing of such quantum effects can open new perspectives for noninvasive electron microscopy, quantum tomography, particle physics, and so forth.

  9. Can urine dipstick predict an elevated serum creatinine?

    PubMed

    Shah, Kaushal; Kilian, Barbara; Hsieh, Wei-Jen; Kyrillou, Emily; Hedge, Vishal; Newman, David H

    2010-06-01

    Chart review studies have suggested that point-of-care urine dipstick testing may accurately predict an elevation in serum creatinine (Cr). We aimed to prospectively evaluate the test characteristics of proteinuria/hematuria in predicting elevated serum Cr. A prospective, observational study was conducted between March 2007 and June 2008 at 2 affiliated, urban hospitals with an annual emergency department census of 150,000. Patients undergoing laboratory urinalysis, point-of-care urine dipstick, and a serum chemistry panel were enrolled. Trained research assistants collected data on consecutive patients 18 hours per day using preformatted data forms and entry into an anonymized Access (Microsoft, Seattle, Wash) database. Demographic baseline variables including age, sex, chief complaint, vital signs, and source of sample (catheter vs "clean catch") were also collected. An elevated Cr level was defined as greater than 1.3 based on the laboratory reference range. Standard statistical methods were used to calculate diagnostic test operating characteristics of proteinuria or hematuria as a predictor of elevated serum Cr. Five thousand four hundred sixteen subjects were enrolled with 28.3% male and a mean age of 50.2 years. Elevated serum Cr greater than 1.3 mg/dL was found in 13.9% (755/5416) of subjects. The sensitivity of either proteinuria or hematuria for elevated Cr was 82.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 80%-85%) and specificity was 34.4% (95% CI, 33%-36%). Positive predictive value was 16.9% (95% CI, 16%-18%) and negative predictive value was 92.4% (95% CI, 91-94%). The likelihood ratio for a positive test was 1.3 (95% CI, 1.1-1.5), and the likelihood ratio for a negative test was 0.5 (95% CI, 0.3-0.8). Although negative predictive value was high, the presence of proteinuria/hematuria was only moderately predictive of elevated serum Cr level. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Multivariate linear regression analysis to identify general factors for quantitative predictions of implant stability quotient values

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Hairong; Xu, Zanzan; Shao, Xianhong; Wismeijer, Daniel; Sun, Ping; Wang, Jingxiao

    2017-01-01

    Objectives This study identified potential general influencing factors for a mathematical prediction of implant stability quotient (ISQ) values in clinical practice. Methods We collected the ISQ values of 557 implants from 2 different brands (SICace and Osstem) placed by 2 surgeons in 336 patients. Surgeon 1 placed 329 SICace implants, and surgeon 2 placed 113 SICace implants and 115 Osstem implants. ISQ measurements were taken at T1 (immediately after implant placement) and T2 (before dental restoration). A multivariate linear regression model was used to analyze the influence of the following 11 candidate factors for stability prediction: sex, age, maxillary/mandibular location, bone type, immediate/delayed implantation, bone grafting, insertion torque, I-stage or II-stage healing pattern, implant diameter, implant length and T1-T2 time interval. Results The need for bone grafting as a predictor significantly influenced ISQ values in all three groups at T1 (weight coefficients ranging from -4 to -5). In contrast, implant diameter consistently influenced the ISQ values in all three groups at T2 (weight coefficients ranging from 3.4 to 4.2). Other factors, such as sex, age, I/II-stage implantation and bone type, did not significantly influence ISQ values at T2, and implant length did not significantly influence ISQ values at T1 or T2. Conclusions These findings provide a rational basis for mathematical models to quantitatively predict the ISQ values of implants in clinical practice. PMID:29084260

  11. Predicting preschoolers' externalizing behaviors from toddler temperament, conflict, and maternal negativity.

    PubMed

    Rubin, Kenneth H; Burgess, Kim B; Dwyer, Kathleen M; Hastings, Paul D

    2003-01-01

    Rarely have researchers elucidated early childhood precursors of externalizing behaviors for boys and girls from a normative sample. Toddlers (N = 104; 52 girls) were observed interacting with a same-sex peer and their mothers, and indices of conflict-aggression, emotion and behavior dysregulation, parenting, and child externalizing problems were obtained. Results indicated that boys initiated more conflictual-aggressive interactions as toddlers and had more externalizing difficulties 2 years later, yet girls' (not boys') conflict-aggressive initiations at age 2 were related to subsequent externalizing problems. When such initiations were controlled for, emotional-behavioral undercontrol at age 2 also independently predicted externalizing problems at age 4. Moreover, the relation between conflict-aggressive initiations at age 2 and externalizing problems at age 4 was strongest for dysregulated toddlers. Finally, the relation between age 2 conflict-aggressive initiations and age 4 externalizing problems was strongest for those toddlers who incurred high levels of maternal negativity. These findings illustrate temperament by parenting connections in the development of externalizing problems.

  12. Cumulative activation during positive and negative events and state anxiety predicts subsequent inertia of amygdala reactivity

    PubMed Central

    Miendlarzewska, Ewa A.; Eryilmaz, Hamdi; Vuilleumier, Patrik

    2015-01-01

    Inertia, together with intensity and valence, is an important component of emotion. We tested whether positive and negative events generate lingering changes in subsequent brain responses to unrelated threat stimuli and investigated the impact of individual anxiety. We acquired fMRI data while participants watched positive or negative movie-clips and subsequently performed an unrelated task with fearful and neutral faces. We quantified changes in amygdala reactivity to fearful faces as a function of the valence of preceding movies and cumulative neural activity evoked during them. We demonstrate that amygdala responses to emotional movies spill over to subsequent processing of threat information in a valence-specific manner: negative movies enhance later amygdala activation whereas positive movies attenuate it. Critically, the magnitude of such changes is predicted by a measure of cumulative amygdala responses to the preceding positive or negative movies. These effects appear independent of overt attention, are regionally limited to amygdala, with no changes in functional connectivity. Finally, individuals with higher state anxiety displayed stronger modulation of amygdala reactivity by positive movies. These results suggest that intensity and valence of emotional events as well as anxiety levels promote local changes in amygdala sensitivity to threat, highlighting the importance of past experience in shaping future affective reactivity. PMID:24603023

  13. The developmental origins of cognitive vulnerability to depression: temperament, parenting, and negative life events in childhood as contributors to negative cognitive style.

    PubMed

    Mezulis, Amy H; Hyde, Janet Shibley; Abramson, Lyn Y

    2006-11-01

    Cognitive models of depression have been well supported with adults, but the developmental origins of cognitive vulnerability are not well understood. The authors hypothesized that temperament, parenting, and negative life events in childhood would contribute to the development of cognitive style, with withdrawal negativity and negative parental feedback moderating the effects of negative life events to predict more depressogenic cognitive styles. These constructs were assessed in 289 children and their parents followed longitudinally from infancy to 5th grade; a subsample (n = 120) also participated in a behavioral task in which maternal feedback to child failure was observed. Results indicated that greater withdrawal negativity in interaction with negative life events was associated with more negative cognitive styles. Self-reported maternal anger expression and observed negative maternal feedback to child's failure significantly interacted with child's negative events to predict greater cognitive vulnerability. There was little evidence of paternal parenting predicting child negative cognitive style.

  14. Predictive value of early changes in triglycerides and weight for longer-term changes in metabolic measures during olanzapine, ziprasidone or aripiprazole treatment for schizophrenia and schizoaffective disorder post hoc analyses of 3 randomized, controlled clinical trials.

    PubMed

    Hoffmann, Vicki P; Case, Michael; Stauffer, Virginia L; Jacobson, Jennie G; Conley, Robert R

    2010-12-01

    The objective of this study was to determine if early changes in triglycerides and weight may be useful in predicting longer-term changes in weight and other metabolic parameters. Data were from three 24- to 28-week randomized, controlled studies comparing olanzapine to ziprasidone or aripiprazole for treatment of schizophrenia. Analyses were restricted to completers with fasting laboratory data at all protocol specified time points. Analyses were primarily descriptive and included mean changes and categorical outcomes. In all treatment groups, participants who did not experience a 20 mg/dL or greater increase in triglycerides at early time points were unlikely to experience a change of 50 mg/dL or more in triglycerides after 6 months. Negative predictive values were 83% to 95%. However, early change in triglycerides was not useful for predicting later change in glucose, cholesterol, or weight. Similarly, early weight change gave robust negative predictive values for longer-term weight change (≥10 kg), but not for change in glucose or cholesterol. Lack of early elevation in triglyceride concentrations was predictive of later lack of substantial increase in triglycerides in olanzapine-, ziprasidone-, and aripiprazole-treated participants. Lack of early elevation in weight was predictive of later lack of substantial increase in weight in all 3 treatment groups. Early monitoring of triglyceride concentrations and weight may help clinicians assess risk that individuals will experience significant increase in triglycerides or weight gain, allowing assessments of potential risks and benefits earlier in treatment. Clinical monitoring is advised throughout treatment for all patients.

  15. Prediction of venous wound healing with laser speckle imaging.

    PubMed

    van Vuuren, Timme Maj; Van Zandvoort, Carina; Doganci, Suat; Zwiers, Ineke; tenCate-Hoek, Arina J; Kurstjens, Ralph Lm; Wittens, Cees Ha

    2017-12-01

    Introduction Laser speckle imaging is used for noninvasive assessment of blood flow of cutaneous wounds. The aim of this study was to assess if laser speckle imaging can be used as a predictor of venous ulcer healing. Methods After generating the flux speckle images, three regions of interest (ROI) were identified to measure the flow. Sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value, and positive predictive value for ulcer healing were calculated. Results In total, 17 limbs were included. A sensitivity of 92.3%, specificity of 75.0%, PPV of 80.0%, and NPV 75.0% were found in predicting wound healing based on laser speckle images. Mean flux values were lowest in the center (ROI I) and showed an increase at the wound edge (ROI II, p = 0.03). Conclusion Laser speckle imaging shows acceptable sensitivity and specificity rates in predicting venous ulcer healing. The wound edge proved to be the best probability for the prediction of wound healing.

  16. The value of assessing pulmonary venous flow velocity for predicting severity of mitral regurgitation: A quantitative assessment integrating left ventricular function

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pu, M.; Griffin, B. P.; Vandervoort, P. M.; Stewart, W. J.; Fan, X.; Cosgrove, D. M.; Thomas, J. D.

    1999-01-01

    Although alteration in pulmonary venous flow has been reported to relate to mitral regurgitant severity, it is also known to vary with left ventricular (LV) systolic and diastolic dysfunction. There are few data relating pulmonary venous flow to quantitative indexes of mitral regurgitation (MR). The object of this study was to assess quantitatively the accuracy of pulmonary venous flow for predicting MR severity by using transesophageal echocardiographic measurement in patients with variable LV dysfunction. This study consisted of 73 patients undergoing heart surgery with mild to severe MR. Regurgitant orifice area (ROA), regurgitant stroke volume (RSV), and regurgitant fraction (RF) were obtained by quantitative transesophageal echocardiography and proximal isovelocity surface area. Both left and right upper pulmonary venous flow velocities were recorded and their patterns classified by the ratio of systolic to diastolic velocity: normal (>/=1), blunted (<1), and systolic reversal (<0). Twenty-three percent of patients had discordant patterns between the left and right veins. When the most abnormal patterns either in the left or right vein were used for analysis, the ratio of peak systolic to diastolic flow velocity was negatively correlated with ROA (r = -0.74, P <.001), RSV (r = -0.70, P <.001), and RF (r = -0.66, P <.001) calculated by the Doppler thermodilution method; values were r = -0.70, r = -0.67, and r = -0.57, respectively (all P <.001), for indexes calculated by the proximal isovelocity surface area method. The sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of the reversed pulmonary venous flow pattern for detecting a large ROA (>0.3 cm(2)) were 69%, 98%, and 97%, respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of the normal pulmonary venous flow pattern for detecting a small ROA (<0.3 cm(2)) were 60%, 96%, and 94%, respectively. However, the blunted pattern had low sensitivity (22%), specificity (61%), and predictive values (30

  17. Diagnostic value of 18F-FDG-PET/CT for the follow-up and restaging of soft tissue sarcomas in adults.

    PubMed

    Kassem, T W; Abdelaziz, O; Emad-Eldin, S

    2017-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the clinical utility of 2-[ 18 F] fluoro-2-deoxy-D-glucose ( 18 FDG) positron emission tomography (PET)/computed tomography (CT) ( 18 F-FDG-PET/CT) in the follow-up of adult patients with soft tissue sarcomas. We prospectively evaluated 37 consecutive patients with known soft tissue sarcoma with 18 F-FDG-PET/CT examination for suspected recurrence of disease. They were 21 men and 16 women with a mean age of 49.6±10.6 (SD) years (range, 34-75years). The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV) and accuracy of 18 F-FDG-PET/CT examination were calculated on a per patient basis. 18 F-FDG-PET/CT showed an overall diagnostic accuracy of 91.8%, sensitivity of 90% and a specificity of 100%. The positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 100 and 70%, respectively. The 18 F-FDG-PET/CT interpretations were correct in 34/37 patients (91.8%). Incorrect interpretations occurred in three patients (8.1%). Reasons for false negative findings were low 18 F-FDG uptake of local recurrence in one patient and low 18 F-FDG uptake of subcentimetric inguinal lymph node metastases. 18 F-FDG-PET/CT has a high diagnostic value in the follow-up of patients with soft tissue sarcoma. Copyright © 2017 Editions françaises de radiologie. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  18. Value is in the eye of the beholder: early visual cortex codes monetary value of objects during a diverted attention task.

    PubMed

    Persichetti, Andrew S; Aguirre, Geoffrey K; Thompson-Schill, Sharon L

    2015-05-01

    A central concern in the study of learning and decision-making is the identification of neural signals associated with the values of choice alternatives. An important factor in understanding the neural correlates of value is the representation of the object itself, separate from the act of choosing. Is it the case that the representation of an object within visual areas will change if it is associated with a particular value? We used fMRI adaptation to measure the neural similarity of a set of novel objects before and after participants learned to associate monetary values with the objects. We used a range of both positive and negative values to allow us to distinguish effects of behavioral salience (i.e., large vs. small values) from effects of valence (i.e., positive vs. negative values). During the scanning session, participants made a perceptual judgment unrelated to value. Crucially, the similarity of the visual features of any pair of objects did not predict the similarity of their value, so we could distinguish adaptation effects due to each dimension of similarity. Within early visual areas, we found that value similarity modulated the neural response to the objects after training. These results show that an abstract dimension, in this case, monetary value, modulates neural response to an object in visual areas of the brain even when attention is diverted.

  19. Associations between adolescent siblings' relationship quality and similarity and differences in values.

    PubMed

    Kretschmer, Tina; Pike, Alison

    2010-08-01

    Theoretically framed by a self-determination perspective on value acquisition and taking into account research into sibling similarity and differences, the current study examined links between sibling relationship quality and adolescents' intrinsic values (benevolence and universalism) and extrinsic values (power, achievement, and materialism). Positive sibling experiences were expected to be positively linked to intrinsic values and negatively linked to extrinsic values, and negative experiences were hypothesized to fuel extrinsic values and thwart intrinsic values. Using a sample of 205 adolescent sibling pairs (older children M = 17.61 years, younger children M = 14.63 years) and multilevel modeling, we assessed within- and between-dyads differences to identify whether the sibling relationship functions as a correlate of values in a similar or different way for 2 siblings. Although siblings were not very similar in their values, sibling competition predicted sibling similarity in higher levels of extrinsic values and lower levels of intrinsic values. Implications for value acquisition research that so far has focused almost solely on parents and failed to acknowledge other processes within families are discussed.

  20. Kernel Extended Real-Valued Negative Selection Algorithm (KERNSA)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-06-01

    are discarded, which is similar to how T-cells function in the BIS. An unlabeled, future sample is considered non -self if any detectors match it. This...Affinity Performs Best With Each type of Dataset 65 5.1.4 More Kernel Functions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 5.1.5 Automate the...13 2.5 The Negative Selection Algorithm (NSA). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 2.6 Illustration of self and non -self

  1. Computer-oriented synthesis of wide-band non-uniform negative resistance amplifiers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Branner, G. R.; Chan, S.-P.

    1975-01-01

    This paper presents a synthesis procedure which provides design values for broad-band amplifiers using non-uniform negative resistance devices. Employing a weighted least squares optimization scheme, the technique, based on an extension of procedures for uniform negative resistance devices, is capable of providing designs for a variety of matching network topologies. It also provides, for the first time, quantitative results for predicting the effects of parameter element variations on overall amplifier performance. The technique is also unique in that it employs exact partial derivatives for optimization and sensitivity computation. In comparison with conventional procedures, significantly improved broad-band designs are shown to result.

  2. Prognostic value of androgen receptor in triple negative breast cancer: A meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Wang, Changjun; Pan, Bo; Zhu, Hanjiang; Zhou, Yidong; Mao, Feng; Lin, Yan; Xu, Qianqian; Sun, Qiang

    2016-07-19

    Androgen receptor (AR) is a promising therapeutic target for breast cancer. However, its prognostic value remains controversial in triple negative breast cancer (TNBC). Here we present a meta-analysis to investigate the correlation between AR expression and TNBC prognosis. Thirteen relevant studies with 2826 TNBC patients were included. AR positive rate was 24.4%. AR+ patients tended to have lower tumor grade (p< 0.001), but more lymph node metastases (p < 0.01). AR positivity was associated with prolonged disease free survival (HR 0.809, 95% CI = 0.659-0.995, p < 0.05), but had no significant impact on overall survival (HR 1.270, 95% CI=0.904-1.782, p = 0.168). No difference in survival existed between subgroups using different AR or estrogen receptor cutoff values. Literature search was performed in Pubmed, Embase and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials databases to identify relevant articles on AR and TNBC prognosis. Fixed- and random-effect meta-analyses were conducted based on the heterogeneity of included studies. Heterogeneity and impacts of covariates were further evaluated by subgroup analyses and meta-regression. AR positivity is associated with lower risk of disease recurrence in TNBC. Further clinical studies are warranted to clarify its prognostic role on TNBC recurrence and survival.

  3. The clinical value of adipokines in predicting the severity and outcome of acute pancreatitis.

    PubMed

    Karpavicius, Andrius; Dambrauskas, Zilvinas; Gradauskas, Audrius; Samuilis, Arturas; Zviniene, Kristina; Kupcinskas, Juozas; Brimas, Gintautas; Meckovski, Artur; Sileikis, Audrius; Strupas, Kestutis

    2016-08-22

    Recent data shows that patients with severe acute pancreatic might benefit from early intensive therapy, enteral nutrition and timely transfer to specialized centers. The early prophylactic use of antibiotics in AP remains controversial. The role and need for new markers in stratification of acute pancreatitis is also uncertain. This study aims to evaluate the prognostic usefulness of adipokines in prediction of the severity and outcome of acute pancreatitis (AP). Prospective study was conducted in four clinical centers. The diagnosis and severity assessment of AP was established according to the revised 2012 Atlanta classification. Adipokines, IL-6 and CRP levels were measured at admission and on 3rd day of hospital stay and compared with the control group. The predictive accuracy of each marker was measured by area under the receiver operating curve. Forty healthy controls and 102 patients were enrolled in to the study. Twenty seven (26.5 %) patients had mild, 55 (53.9 %) - moderate and 20 (19.6 %) - severe AP. Only resistin (cut-off value 13.7 ng/ml) and IL-6 (cut-off value 473.4 pg/ml) were reliable early markers of SAP. IL-6 with cut-off value of 157.0 pg/ml was a predictor of necrosis. The peripancreatic necrosis volume of 112.5 ml was a marker of SAP and 433.0 ml cut-off value could be used to predict the need of interventions. The prognostic value of adipokines in AP is limited. Only admission resistin levels could serve as an early predictor for SAP. The Lithuanian Regional Ethics Committee approved the study protocol (permission No. L-12-02/1/2/3/4) and all the patients and the control group provided written informed consent.

  4. A surge of p-values between 0.041 and 0.049 in recent decades (but negative results are increasing rapidly too)

    PubMed Central

    Dodou, Dimitra

    2015-01-01

    It is known that statistically significant (positive) results are more likely to be published than non-significant (negative) results. However, it has been unclear whether any increasing prevalence of positive results is stronger in the “softer” disciplines (social sciences) than in the “harder” disciplines (physical sciences), and whether the prevalence of negative results is decreasing over time. Using Scopus, we searched the abstracts of papers published between 1990 and 2013, and measured longitudinal trends of multiple expressions of positive versus negative results, including p-values between 0.041 and 0.049 versus p-values between 0.051 and 0.059, textual reporting of “significant difference” versus “no significant difference,” and the reporting of p < 0.05 versus p > 0.05. We found no support for a “hierarchy of sciences” with physical sciences at the top and social sciences at the bottom. However, we found large differences in reporting practices between disciplines, with p-values between 0.041 and 0.049 over 1990–2013 being 65.7 times more prevalent in the biological sciences than in the physical sciences. The p-values near the significance threshold of 0.05 on either side have both increased but with those p-values between 0.041 and 0.049 having increased to a greater extent (2013-to-1990 ratio of the percentage of papers = 10.3) than those between 0.051 and 0.059 (ratio = 3.6). Contradictorily, p < 0.05 has increased more slowly than p > 0.05 (ratios = 1.4 and 4.8, respectively), while the use of “significant difference” has shown only a modest increase compared to “no significant difference” (ratios = 1.5 and 1.1, respectively). We also compared reporting of significance in the United States, Asia, and Europe and found that the results are too inconsistent to draw conclusions on cross-cultural differences in significance reporting. We argue that the observed longitudinal trends are caused by negative factors, such as an

  5. Evaluation of the Predictive Validity of Thermography in Identifying Extravasation With Intravenous Chemotherapy Infusions.

    PubMed

    Matsui, Yuko; Murayama, Ryoko; Tanabe, Hidenori; Oe, Makoto; Motoo, Yoshiharu; Wagatsuma, Takanori; Michibuchi, Michiko; Kinoshita, Sachiko; Sakai, Keiko; Konya, Chizuko; Sugama, Junko; Sanada, Hiromi

    Early detection of extravasation is important, but conventional methods of detection lack objectivity and reliability. This study evaluated the predictive validity of thermography for identifying extravasation during intravenous antineoplastic therapy. Of 257 patients who received chemotherapy through peripheral veins, extravasation was identified in 26. Thermography was performed every 15 to 30 minutes during the infusions. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value using thermography were 84.6%, 94.8%, 64.7%, and 98.2%, respectively. This study showed that thermography offers an accurate prediction of extravasation.

  6. Evaluation of the Predictive Validity of Thermography in Identifying Extravasation With Intravenous Chemotherapy Infusions

    PubMed Central

    Murayama, Ryoko; Tanabe, Hidenori; Oe, Makoto; Motoo, Yoshiharu; Wagatsuma, Takanori; Michibuchi, Michiko; Kinoshita, Sachiko; Sakai, Keiko; Konya, Chizuko; Sugama, Junko; Sanada, Hiromi

    2017-01-01

    Early detection of extravasation is important, but conventional methods of detection lack objectivity and reliability. This study evaluated the predictive validity of thermography for identifying extravasation during intravenous antineoplastic therapy. Of 257 patients who received chemotherapy through peripheral veins, extravasation was identified in 26. Thermography was performed every 15 to 30 minutes during the infusions. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value using thermography were 84.6%, 94.8%, 64.7%, and 98.2%, respectively. This study showed that thermography offers an accurate prediction of extravasation. PMID:29112585

  7. Assessing cutoff values for increased exercise blood pressure to predict incident hypertension in a general population.

    PubMed

    Lorbeer, Roberto; Ittermann, Till; Völzke, Henry; Gläser, Sven; Ewert, Ralf; Felix, Stephan B; Dörr, Marcus

    2015-07-01

    Cutoff values for increased exercise blood pressure (BP) are not established in hypertension guidelines. The aim of the study was to assess optimal cutoff values for increased exercise BP to predict incident hypertension. Data of 661 normotensive participants (386 women) aged 25-77 years from the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP-1) with a 5-year follow-up were used. Exercise BP was measured at a submaximal level of 100 W and at maximum level of a symptom-limited cycle ergometry test. Cutoff values for increased exercise BP were defined at the maximum sum of sensitivity and specificity for the prediction of incident hypertension. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) and net reclassification index (NRI) were calculated to investigate whether increased exercise BP adds predictive value for incident hypertension beyond established cardiovascular risk factors. In men, values of 160  mmHg (100  W level; AUC = 0.7837; NRI = 0.534, P < 0.001) and 210  mmHg (maximum level; AUC = 0.7677; NRI = 0.340, P = 0.003) were detected as optimal cutoff values for the definition of increased exercise SBP. A value of 190  mmHg (AUC = 0.8347; NRI = 0.519, P < 0.001) showed relevance for the definition of increased exercise SBP in women at the maximum level. According to our analyses, 190 and 210  mmHg are clinically relevant cutoff values for increased exercise SBP at the maximum exercise level of cycle ergometry test for women and men, respectively. In addition, for men, our analyses provided a cutoff value of 160  mmHg for increased exercise SBP at the 100  W level.

  8. Ruminative Self-Focus and Negative Affect

    PubMed Central

    Moberly, Nicholas J.; Watkins, Edward R.

    2008-01-01

    The authors conducted an experience sampling study to investigate the relationship between momentary ruminative self-focus and negative affect. Ninety-three adults recorded these variables at quasi-random intervals 8 times daily for 1 week. Scores on questionnaire measures of dispositional rumination were associated with mean levels of momentary ruminative self-focus over the experience sampling week. Concurrently, momentary ruminative self-focus was positively associated with negative affect. Cross-lagged analyses revealed that whereas ruminative self-focus predicted negative affect at a subsequent occasion, negative affect also predicted ruminative self-focus at a subsequent occasion. Decomposition of the dispositional rumination measure suggested that brooding, but not reflective pondering, was associated with higher mean levels of negative affect. Though broadly consistent with Nolen-Hoeksema's (1991) response styles theory, these results suggest that a reciprocal relationship exists between ruminative self-focus and negative affect. PMID:18489207

  9. Clinical value of CT-based preoperative software assisted lung lobe volumetry for predicting postoperative pulmonary function after lung surgery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wormanns, Dag; Beyer, Florian; Hoffknecht, Petra; Dicken, Volker; Kuhnigk, Jan-Martin; Lange, Tobias; Thomas, Michael; Heindel, Walter

    2005-04-01

    This study was aimed to evaluate a morphology-based approach for prediction of postoperative forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) after lung resection from preoperative CT scans. Fifteen Patients with surgically treated (lobectomy or pneumonectomy) bronchogenic carcinoma were enrolled in the study. A preoperative chest CT and pulmonary function tests before and after surgery were performed. CT scans were analyzed by prototype software: automated segmentation and volumetry of lung lobes was performed with minimal user interaction. Determined volumes of different lung lobes were used to predict postoperative FEV1 as percentage of the preoperative values. Predicted FEV1 values were compared to the observed postoperative values as standard of reference. Patients underwent lobectomy in twelve cases (6 upper lobes; 1 middle lobe; 5 lower lobes; 6 right side; 6 left side) and pneumonectomy in three cases. Automated calculation of predicted postoperative lung function was successful in all cases. Predicted FEV1 ranged from 54% to 95% (mean 75% +/- 11%) of the preoperative values. Two cases with obviously erroneous LFT were excluded from analysis. Mean error of predicted FEV1 was 20 +/- 160 ml, indicating absence of systematic error; mean absolute error was 7.4 +/- 3.3% respective 137 +/- 77 ml/s. The 200 ml reproducibility criterion for FEV1 was met in 11 of 13 cases (85%). In conclusion, software-assisted prediction of postoperative lung function yielded a clinically acceptable agreement with the observed postoperative values. This method might add useful information for evaluation of functional operability of patients with lung cancer.

  10. Brain negativity as an indicator of predictive error processing: the contribution of visual action effect monitoring.

    PubMed

    Joch, Michael; Hegele, Mathias; Maurer, Heiko; Müller, Hermann; Maurer, Lisa Katharina

    2017-07-01

    The error (related) negativity (Ne/ERN) is an event-related potential in the electroencephalogram (EEG) correlating with error processing. Its conditions of appearance before terminal external error information suggest that the Ne/ERN is indicative of predictive processes in the evaluation of errors. The aim of the present study was to specifically examine the Ne/ERN in a complex motor task and to particularly rule out other explaining sources of the Ne/ERN aside from error prediction processes. To this end, we focused on the dependency of the Ne/ERN on visual monitoring about the action outcome after movement termination but before result feedback (action effect monitoring). Participants performed a semi-virtual throwing task by using a manipulandum to throw a virtual ball displayed on a computer screen to hit a target object. Visual feedback about the ball flying to the target was masked to prevent action effect monitoring. Participants received a static feedback about the action outcome (850 ms) after each trial. We found a significant negative deflection in the average EEG curves of the error trials peaking at ~250 ms after ball release, i.e., before error feedback. Furthermore, this Ne/ERN signal did not depend on visual ball-flight monitoring after release. We conclude that the Ne/ERN has the potential to indicate error prediction in motor tasks and that it exists even in the absence of action effect monitoring. NEW & NOTEWORTHY In this study, we are separating different kinds of possible contributors to an electroencephalogram (EEG) error correlate (Ne/ERN) in a throwing task. We tested the influence of action effect monitoring on the Ne/ERN amplitude in the EEG. We used a task that allows us to restrict movement correction and action effect monitoring and to control the onset of result feedback. We ascribe the Ne/ERN to predictive error processing where a conscious feeling of failure is not a prerequisite. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological

  11. Reference Values and Utility of Serum Total Immunoglobulin E for Predicting Atopy and Allergic Diseases in Korean Schoolchildren

    PubMed Central

    2017-01-01

    The present study aimed to investigate the distribution of total serum immunoglobulin E (IgE) levels in Korean schoolchildren and to evaluate its utility in the prediction of atopy and allergic diseases. A nationwide, cross-sectional survey was conducted in first grade students from randomly selected elementary and middle schools. Total IgE levels were measured by ImmunoCAP. Skin prick tests were performed for 18 common inhalant allergens to determine the presence of atopy. Children aged 12–13 years and parents of children aged 6–7 years were asked to complete questionnaire assessing allergic diseases. The cut-off levels of total IgE were determined by analyzing receiver operating characteristic curves. The median total IgE level was 86.7 kU/L (range: 1.5–4,523.1) in 3,753 children aged 6–7 years and 94.7 kU/L (range: 1.5–3,000.0) in 3,930 children aged 12–13 years. Total IgE concentrations were higher in children with atopy or allergic diseases than in those without (all P < 0.001). At the cut-off value of 127.7 kU/L, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV) were 67.1%, 75.4%, 65.4%, and 76.7%, respectively, in elementary schoolchildren. At the cut-off value of 63.0 kU/L, sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV were 81.9%, 66.6%, 75.0%, and 75.1%, respectively, in middle schoolchildren. PPV and NPV were ≥ 70% when cut-offs of 258.8 kU/L and 38.4 kU/L were used for the diagnosis of atopy in 6–7 year-olds and 12–13 year-olds, respectively. This nationwide population-based study provided the first normal reference ranges of total IgE in Korean schoolchildren. PMID:28378554

  12. The Accuracy of the Spot Sign and the Blend Sign for Predicting Hematoma Expansion in Patients with Spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

    PubMed

    Zheng, Jun; Yu, Zhiyuan; Xu, Zhao; Li, Mou; Wang, Xiaoze; Lin, Sen; Li, Hao; You, Chao

    2017-05-12

    BACKGROUND Hematoma expansion is associated with poor outcome in intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) patients. The spot sign and the blend sign are reliable tools for predicting hematoma expansion in ICH patients. The aim of this study was to compare the accuracy of the two signs in the prediction of hematoma expansion. MATERIAL AND METHODS Patients with spontaneous ICH were screened for the presence of the computed tomography angiography (CTA) spot sign and the non-contrast CT (NCCT) blend sign within 6 hours after onset of symptoms. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of the spot sign and the blend sign in predicting hematoma expansion were calculated. The accuracy of the spot sign and the blend sign in predicting hematoma expansion was analyzed by receiver-operator analysis. RESULTS A total of 115 patients were enrolled in this study. The spot sign was observed in 25 (21.74%) patients, whereas the blend sign was observed in 22 (19.13%) patients. Of the 28 patients with hematoma expansion, the CTA spot sign was found on admission CT scans in 16 (57.14%) and the NCCT blend sign in 12 (42.86%), respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the spot sign for predicting hematoma expansion were 57.14%, 89.66%, 64.00%, and 86.67%, respectively. In contrast, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the blend sign were 42.86%, 88.51%, 54.55%, and 82.80%, respectively. The area under the curve (AUC) of the spot sign was 0.734, which was higher than that of the blend sign (0.657). CONCLUSIONS Both the spot sign and the blend sign seemed to be good predictors for hematoma expansion, and the spot sign appeared to have better predictive accuracy.

  13. The Accuracy of the Spot Sign and the Blend Sign for Predicting Hematoma Expansion in Patients with Spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage

    PubMed Central

    Zheng, Jun; Yu, Zhiyuan; Xu, Zhao; Li, Mou; Wang, Xiaoze; Lin, Sen; Li, Hao; You, Chao

    2017-01-01

    Background Hematoma expansion is associated with poor outcome in intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) patients. The spot sign and the blend sign are reliable tools for predicting hematoma expansion in ICH patients. The aim of this study was to compare the accuracy of the two signs in the prediction of hematoma expansion. Material/Methods Patients with spontaneous ICH were screened for the presence of the computed tomography angiography (CTA) spot sign and the non-contrast CT (NCCT) blend sign within 6 hours after onset of symptoms. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of the spot sign and the blend sign in predicting hematoma expansion were calculated. The accuracy of the spot sign and the blend sign in predicting hematoma expansion was analyzed by receiver-operator analysis. Results A total of 115 patients were enrolled in this study. The spot sign was observed in 25 (21.74%) patients, whereas the blend sign was observed in 22 (19.13%) patients. Of the 28 patients with hematoma expansion, the CTA spot sign was found on admission CT scans in 16 (57.14%) and the NCCT blend sign in 12 (42.86%), respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the spot sign for predicting hematoma expansion were 57.14%, 89.66%, 64.00%, and 86.67%, respectively. In contrast, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the blend sign were 42.86%, 88.51%, 54.55%, and 82.80%, respectively. The area under the curve (AUC) of the spot sign was 0.734, which was higher than that of the blend sign (0.657). Conclusions Both the spot sign and the blend sign seemed to be good predictors for hematoma expansion, and the spot sign appeared to have better predictive accuracy. PMID:28498827

  14. The Bungee Jumper: A Comparison of Predicted and Measured Values

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biezeveld, Hubert

    2003-04-01

    The greater-than-g acceleration of a bungee jumper discussed in a previous article in this journal by Kagan and Kott led to many lively discussions among Dutch physics teachers. These inspired me to look for an inexpensive experimental setup, suitable for use in a high school physics class, that can be used to confirm that indeed the acceleration is greater than g. In this paper I describe an exercise to compare the predicted and the measured graphs for the displacement y(t) of the jumper and the force Fb(t) exerted by the bungee on the bridge to which it is fastened. In my apparatus, the "bungee" consists of a light chain and the "jumper" is a small piece of brass. Data collection and the calculation of predicted values were carried out using Coach.2 The analysis reliably leads to the conclusion that the acceleration of the falling jumper does indeed exceed g.

  15. Understanding less than nothing: children's neural response to negative numbers shifts across age and accuracy.

    PubMed

    Gullick, Margaret M; Wolford, George

    2013-01-01

    We examined the brain activity underlying the development of our understanding of negative numbers, which are amounts lacking direct physical counterparts. Children performed a paired comparison task with positive and negative numbers during an fMRI session. As previously shown in adults, both pre-instruction fifth-graders and post-instruction seventh-graders demonstrated typical behavioral and neural distance effects to negative numbers, where response times and parietal and frontal activity increased as comparison distance decreased. We then determined the factors impacting the distance effect in each age group. Behaviorally, the fifth-grader distance effect for negatives was significantly predicted only by positive comparison accuracy, indicating that children who were generally better at working with numbers were better at comparing negatives. In seventh-graders, negative number comparison accuracy significantly predicted their negative number distance effect, indicating that children who were better at working with negative numbers demonstrated a more typical distance effect. Across children, as age increased, the negative number distance effect increased in the bilateral IPS and decreased frontally, indicating a frontoparietal shift consistent with previous numerical development literature. In contrast, as negative comparison task accuracy increased, the parietal distance effect increased in the left IPS and decreased in the right, possibly indicating a change from an approximate understanding of negatives' values to a more exact, precise representation (particularly supported by the left IPS) with increasing expertise. These shifts separately indicate the effects of increasing maturity generally in numeric processing and specifically in negative number understanding.

  16. Developing hybrid approaches to predict pKa values of ionizable groups

    PubMed Central

    Witham, Shawn; Talley, Kemper; Wang, Lin; Zhang, Zhe; Sarkar, Subhra; Gao, Daquan; Yang, Wei

    2011-01-01

    Accurate predictions of pKa values of titratable groups require taking into account all relevant processes associated with the ionization/deionization. Frequently, however, the ionization does not involve significant structural changes and the dominating effects are purely electrostatic in origin allowing accurate predictions to be made based on the electrostatic energy difference between ionized and neutral forms alone using a static structure. On another hand, if the change of the charge state is accompanied by a structural reorganization of the target protein, then the relevant conformational changes have to be taken into account in the pKa calculations. Here we report a hybrid approach that first predicts the titratable groups, which ionization is expected to cause conformational changes, termed “problematic” residues, then applies a special protocol on them, while the rest of the pKa’s are predicted with rigid backbone approach as implemented in multi-conformation continuum electrostatics (MCCE) method. The backbone representative conformations for “problematic” groups are generated with either molecular dynamics simulations with charged and uncharged amino acid or with ab-initio local segment modeling. The corresponding ensembles are then used to calculate the pKa of the “problematic” residues and then the results are averaged. PMID:21744395

  17. Potential clinical value of PET/CT in predicting occult nodal metastasis in T1-T2N0M0 lung cancer patients staged by PET/CT

    PubMed Central

    Zhou, Xiang; Chen, Ruohua; Huang, Gang; Liu, Jianjun

    2017-01-01

    We assessed the clinical value of 2-fluoro-2-deoxyglucose (18F-FDG) PET/CT imaging for predicting occult nodal metastasis in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. This retrospective study included 54 patients with T1-2N0M0 NSCLC who had undergone 18F-FDG PET/CT before surgery. Occult nodal metastasis was detected in 25.9% (14/54) of the patients. Immunohistochemical analysis revealed that increased glucose transporter 1 expression was associated with occult nodal metastasis, but hexokinase 2 expression was not. Compared to the negative nodal metastasis group, the positive nodal metastasis group was associated with increased maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax) and tumor size. Multivariate analysis indicated that SUVmax and tumor size were associated with nodal metastasis. Nodal metastasis could be predicted with a sensitivity of 92.9% and a specificity of 55.0% when the SUVmax cutoff was 4.35. When patients were divided into low-risk (tumor size ≤ 2.5 cm and SUVmax ≤ 4.35), moderate-risk (tumor size ≤ 2.5 cm and SUVmax > 4.35 or tumor size > 2.5 cm and SUVmax ≤ 4.35) and high-risk (tumor size > 2.5 cm and SUVmax > 4.35) groups, the lymph node metastasis rates were 4.3%, 22.7%, and 88.9%, respectively. These results indicate that the combination of SUVmax and tumor size has potential clinical value for predicting occult nodal metastasis in NSCLC patients. PMID:29137276

  18. Prediction of alpha factor values for fine pore aeration systems.

    PubMed

    Gillot, S; Héduit, A

    2008-01-01

    The objective of this work was to analyse the impact of different geometric and operating parameters on the alpha factor value for fine bubble aeration systems equipped with EPDM membrane diffusers. Measurements have been performed on nitrifying plants operating under extended aeration and treating mainly domestic wastewater. Measurements performed on 14 nitrifying plants showed that, for domestic wastewater treatment under very low F/M ratios, the alpha factor is comprised between 0.44 and 0.98. A new composite variable (the Equivalent Contact Time, ECT) has been defined and makes it possible for a given aeration tank, knowing the MCRT, the clean water oxygen transfer coefficient and the supplied air flow rate, to predict the alpha factor value. ECT combines the effect on mass transfer of all generally accepted factors affecting oxygen transfer performances (air flow rate, diffuser submergence, horizontal flow). (c) IWA Publishing 2008.

  19. Cumulative activation during positive and negative events and state anxiety predicts subsequent inertia of amygdala reactivity.

    PubMed

    Pichon, Swann; Miendlarzewska, Ewa A; Eryilmaz, Hamdi; Vuilleumier, Patrik

    2015-02-01

    Inertia, together with intensity and valence, is an important component of emotion. We tested whether positive and negative events generate lingering changes in subsequent brain responses to unrelated threat stimuli and investigated the impact of individual anxiety. We acquired fMRI data while participants watched positive or negative movie-clips and subsequently performed an unrelated task with fearful and neutral faces. We quantified changes in amygdala reactivity to fearful faces as a function of the valence of preceding movies and cumulative neural activity evoked during them. We demonstrate that amygdala responses to emotional movies spill over to subsequent processing of threat information in a valence-specific manner: negative movies enhance later amygdala activation whereas positive movies attenuate it. Critically, the magnitude of such changes is predicted by a measure of cumulative amygdala responses to the preceding positive or negative movies. These effects appear independent of overt attention, are regionally limited to amygdala, with no changes in functional connectivity. Finally, individuals with higher state anxiety displayed stronger modulation of amygdala reactivity by positive movies. These results suggest that intensity and valence of emotional events as well as anxiety levels promote local changes in amygdala sensitivity to threat, highlighting the importance of past experience in shaping future affective reactivity. © The Author (2014). Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  20. 111In platelet imaging of left ventricular thrombi. Predictive value for systemic emboli

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Stratton, J.R.; Ritchie, J.L.

    To determine whether a positive indium 111 platelet image for a left ventricular thrombus, which indicates ongoing thrombogenic activity, predicts an increased risk of systemic embolization, we compared the embolic rate in 34 patients with positive {sup 111}In platelet images with that in 69 patients with negative images during a mean follow-up of 38 +/- 31 (+/- SD) months after platelet imaging. The positive and negative image groups were similar with respect to age (59 +/- 11 vs. 62 +/- 10 years), prevalence of previous infarction (94% vs. 78%, p less than 0.05), time from last infarction (28 +/- 51more » vs. 33 +/- 47 months), ejection fraction (29 +/- 14 vs. 33 +/- 14), long-term or paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (15% vs. 26%), warfarin therapy during follow-up (26% vs. 20%), platelet-inhibitory therapy during follow-up (50% vs. 33%), injected {sup 111}In dose (330 +/- 92 vs. 344 +/- 118 microCi), and latest imaging time (greater than or equal to 48 hours in all patients). During follow-up, embolic events occurred in 21% (seven of 34) of patients with positive platelet images for left ventricular thrombi as compared with 3% (two of 69) of patients with negative images (p = 0.002). By actuarial methods, at 42 months after platelet imaging, only 86% of patients with positive images were embolus free as compared with 98% of patients with negative images (p less than 0.01).« less

  1. Prediction of genetic values of quantitative traits with epistatic effects in plant breeding populations.

    PubMed

    Wang, D; Salah El-Basyoni, I; Stephen Baenziger, P; Crossa, J; Eskridge, K M; Dweikat, I

    2012-11-01

    Though epistasis has long been postulated to have a critical role in genetic regulation of important pathways as well as provide a major source of variation in the process of speciation, the importance of epistasis for genomic selection in the context of plant breeding is still being debated. In this paper, we report the results on the prediction of genetic values with epistatic effects for 280 accessions in the Nebraska Wheat Breeding Program using adaptive mixed least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO). The development of adaptive mixed LASSO, originally designed for association mapping, for the context of genomic selection is reported. The results show that adaptive mixed LASSO can be successfully applied to the prediction of genetic values while incorporating both marker main effects and epistatic effects. Especially, the prediction accuracy is substantially improved by the inclusion of two-locus epistatic effects (more than onefold in some cases as measured by cross-validation correlation coefficient), which is observed for multiple traits and planting locations. This points to significant potential in using non-additive genetic effects for genomic selection in crop breeding practices.

  2. Beyond Negative Pain-Related Psychological Factors: Resilience Is Related to Lower Pain Affect in Healthy Adults.

    PubMed

    Hemington, Kasey S; Cheng, Joshua C; Bosma, Rachael L; Rogachov, Anton; Kim, Junseok A; Davis, Karen D

    2017-09-01

    Resilience, a characteristic that enhances adaptation in response to stressful events, is a positive psychological factor that can predict and modulate health outcomes. However, resilience is rarely considered in pain research. Conversely, negative psychological factors (eg, anxiety, depression) are known to be related to the affective dimension of pain. It is critical to understand all potential psychological drivers of pain affect, a prominent component of chronic pain. We tested the hypothesis that higher resilience is associated with lower pain affect, above and beyond the predictive value of negative psychological factors. Healthy adults underwent psychophysical testing to acquire ratings of heat pain intensity and unpleasantness and completed the Resilience Scale, the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (trait form), Beck Depression Inventory, Pain Catastrophizing Scale, and the Pain Vigilance and Attention Questionnaire. Multiple regression modeling (n = 68) showed resilience to be a negatively associated with pain affect (unpleasantness). Furthermore, in individuals with higher anxiety scores, resilience was protective against higher pain affect. This highlights the importance of resilience, a positive psychological factor, in the affective dimension of pain. This study is the first to assess a positive psychological factor and experimental pain affect, and has the potential to improve prediction of and treatment strategies for clinical pain. We report that resilience, a positive psychological factor, interacts with anxiety and is associated with heat pain affect (unpleasantness) in healthy individuals. Resilience may provide predictive value of chronic pain affect and treatment outcomes, and could be a target for behavioral therapy. Copyright © 2017 American Pain Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Predicting drug-induced liver injury in human with Naïve Bayes classifier approach.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Hui; Ding, Lan; Zou, Yi; Hu, Shui-Qing; Huang, Hai-Guo; Kong, Wei-Bao; Zhang, Ji

    2016-10-01

    Drug-induced liver injury (DILI) is one of the major safety concerns in drug development. Although various toxicological studies assessing DILI risk have been developed, these methods were not sufficient in predicting DILI in humans. Thus, developing new tools and approaches to better predict DILI risk in humans has become an important and urgent task. In this study, we aimed to develop a computational model for assessment of the DILI risk with using a larger scale human dataset and Naïve Bayes classifier. The established Naïve Bayes prediction model was evaluated by 5-fold cross validation and an external test set. For the training set, the overall prediction accuracy of the 5-fold cross validation was 94.0 %. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 97.1, 89.2, 93.5 and 95.1 %, respectively. The test set with the concordance of 72.6 %, sensitivity of 72.5 %, specificity of 72.7 %, positive predictive value of 80.4 %, negative predictive value of 63.2 %. Furthermore, some important molecular descriptors related to DILI risk and some toxic/non-toxic fragments were identified. Thus, we hope the prediction model established here would be employed for the assessment of human DILI risk, and the obtained molecular descriptors and substructures should be taken into consideration in the design of new candidate compounds to help medicinal chemists rationally select the chemicals with the best prospects to be effective and safe.

  4. What Is the Negative Predictive Value of Multiparametric Magnetic Resonance Imaging in Excluding Prostate Cancer at Biopsy? A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis from the European Association of Urology Prostate Cancer Guidelines Panel.

    PubMed

    Moldovan, Paul C; Van den Broeck, Thomas; Sylvester, Richard; Marconi, Lorenzo; Bellmunt, Joaquim; van den Bergh, Roderick C N; Bolla, Michel; Briers, Erik; Cumberbatch, Marcus G; Fossati, Nicola; Gross, Tobias; Henry, Ann M; Joniau, Steven; van der Kwast, Theo H; Matveev, Vsevolod B; van der Poel, Henk G; De Santis, Maria; Schoots, Ivo G; Wiegel, Thomas; Yuan, Cathy Yuhong; Cornford, Philip; Mottet, Nicolas; Lam, Thomas B; Rouvière, Olivier

    2017-08-01

    It remains unclear whether patients with a suspicion of prostate cancer (PCa) and negative multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) can safely obviate prostate biopsy. To systematically review the literature assessing the negative predictive value (NPV) of mpMRI in patients with a suspicion of PCa. The Embase, Medline, and Cochrane databases were searched up to February 2016. Studies reporting prebiopsy mpMRI results using transrectal or transperineal biopsy as a reference standard were included. We further selected for meta-analysis studies with at least 10-core biopsies as the reference standard, mpMRI comprising at least T2-weighted and diffusion-weighted imaging, positive mpMRI defined as a Prostate Imaging Reporting Data System/Likert score of ≥3/5 or ≥4/5, and results reported at patient level for the detection of overall PCa or clinically significant PCa (csPCa) defined as Gleason ≥7 cancer. A total of 48 studies (9613 patients) were eligible for inclusion. At patient level, the median prevalence was 50.4% (interquartile range [IQR], 36.4-57.7%) for overall cancer and 32.9% (IQR, 28.1-37.2%) for csPCa. The median mpMRI NPV was 82.4% (IQR, 69.0-92.4%) for overall cancer and 88.1% (IQR, 85.7-92.3) for csPCa. NPV significantly decreased when cancer prevalence increased, for overall cancer (r=-0.64, p<0.0001) and csPCa (r=-0.75, p=0.032). Eight studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria for meta-analysis. Seven reported results for overall PCa. When the overall PCa prevalence increased from 30% to 60%, the combined NPV estimates decreased from 88% (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 77-99%) to 67% (95% CI, 56-79%) for a cut-off score of 3/5. Only one study selected for meta-analysis reported results for Gleason ≥7 cancers, with a positive biopsy rate of 29.3%. The corresponding NPV for a cut-off score of ≥3/5 was 87.9%. The NPV of mpMRI varied greatly depending on study design, cancer prevalence, and definitions of positive mpMRI and csPCa. As

  5. [Role of parathyroid hormone measurement in prediction for symptomatic hypocalcaemia after total thyroidectomy].

    PubMed

    An, Chang-ming; Tang, Ping-zhang; Xu, Zhen-gang; Zhang, Bin; Zhang, Zong-min; Yan, Dan-gui; Li, Zheng-jiang

    2010-03-01

    To evaluate the role of parathyroid hormone (PTH) and serum calcium in prediction for hypocalcaemia after total thyroidectomy. One hundred and sixty-five patients undergoing total or complete total thyroidectomy were reviewed retrospectively. The indications included bilateral carcinoma, undifferential carcinoma, surroundings invasion, distant metastasis and huge benign lesions. Preoperative and postoperative PTH, calcium concentrations and their decline levels were compared between Jan. 2005 and May 2009. The role of PTH value and decline level predicting for symptomatic hypocalcaemia were analyzed by receiver operator characteristics (ROC) curve. After total thyroidectomy, 85 patients (51.5%) developed hypocalcemia. Symptoms were reported by 36 patients (21.8%). The mean concentration of PTH for normocalcaemia (80 cases), asymptomatic hypocalcaemia (49 cases) and symptomatic patients (36 cases) were 31.0 ng/L, 19.6 ng/L and 11.9 ng/L, respectively. The mean decline level for the three groups were 28.6%, 52.6% and 78.0%, respectively. PTH value and its decline level had a poor predicting value for symptomatic hypocalcaemia and high negative predicting value for asymptomatic patients. The serum calcium concentration more than 2.0 mmol/L, PTH level higher than 15 ng/L and PTH decline less than 50% had the good negative predicting value of 97.6%, 90.3% and 96.5%, respectively. Postoperative PTH and its decline level were significantly correlated with postoperative serum calcium concentration but had a low accuracy for predicting symptomatic hypocalcaemia. The serum calcium concentration more than 2.0 mmol/L, PTH level higher than 15 ng/L and PTH decline less than 50% had the good predicting value for asymptomatic patients. Calcium should be routinely supplemented in the first 24 h after total thyroidectomy to reduce the rate of hypocalcemia and the severity of hypocalcemia symptoms.

  6. Prediction value of the Canadian CT head rule and the New Orleans criteria for positive head CT scan and acute neurosurgical procedures in minor head trauma: a multicenter external validation study.

    PubMed

    Bouida, Wahid; Marghli, Soudani; Souissi, Sami; Ksibi, Hichem; Methammem, Mehdi; Haguiga, Habib; Khedher, Sonia; Boubaker, Hamdi; Beltaief, Kaouthar; Grissa, Mohamed Habib; Trimech, Mohamed Naceur; Kerkeni, Wiem; Chebili, Nawfel; Halila, Imen; Rejeb, Imen; Boukef, Riadh; Rekik, Noureddine; Bouhaja, Bechir; Letaief, Mondher; Nouira, Semir

    2013-05-01

    The New Orleans Criteria and the Canadian CT Head Rule have been developed to decrease the number of normal computed tomography (CT) results in mild head injury. We compare the performance of both decision rules for identifying patients with intracranial traumatic lesions and those who require an urgent neurosurgical intervention after mild head injury. This was an observational cohort study performed between 2008 and 2011 on patients with mild head injury who were aged 10 years or older. We collected prospectively clinical head CT scan findings and outcome. Primary outcome was need for neurosurgical intervention, defined as either death or craniotomy, or the need of intubation within 15 days of the traumatic event. Secondary outcome was the presence of traumatic lesions on head CT scan. New Orleans Criteria and Canadian CT Head Rule decision rules were compared by using sensitivity specifications and positive and negative predictive value. We enrolled 1,582 patients. Neurosurgical intervention was performed in 34 patients (2.1%) and positive CT findings were demonstrated in 218 patients (13.8%). Sensitivity and specificity for need for neurosurgical intervention were 100% (95% confidence interval [CI] 90% to 100%) and 60% (95% CI 44% to 76%) for the Canadian CT Head Rule and 82% (95% CI 69% to 95%) and 26% (95% CI 24% to 28%) for the New Orleans Criteria. Negative predictive values for the above-mentioned clinical decision rules were 100% and 99% and positive values were 5% and 2%, respectively, for the Canadian CT Head Rule and New Orleans Criteria. Sensitivity and specificity for clinical significant head CT findings were 95% (95% CI 92% to 98%) and 65% (95% CI 62% to 68%) for the Canadian CT Head Rule and 86% (95% CI 81% to 91%) and 28% (95% CI 26% to 30%) for the New Orleans Criteria. A similar trend of results was found in the subgroup of patients with a Glasgow Coma Scale score of 15. For patients with mild head injury, the Canadian CT Head Rule had higher

  7. Development of an evidence-based approach to external quality assurance for breast cancer hormone receptor immunohistochemistry: comparison of reference values.

    PubMed

    Makretsov, Nikita; Gilks, C Blake; Alaghehbandan, Reza; Garratt, John; Quenneville, Louise; Mercer, Joel; Palavdzic, Dragana; Torlakovic, Emina E

    2011-07-01

    External quality assurance and proficiency testing programs for breast cancer predictive biomarkers are based largely on traditional ad hoc design; at present there is no universal consensus on definition of a standard reference value for samples used in external quality assurance programs. To explore reference values for estrogen receptor and progesterone receptor immunohistochemistry in order to develop an evidence-based analytic platform for external quality assurance. There were 31 participating laboratories, 4 of which were previously designated as "expert" laboratories. Each participant tested a tissue microarray slide with 44 breast carcinomas for estrogen receptor and progesterone receptor and submitted it to the Canadian Immunohistochemistry Quality Control Program for analysis. Nuclear staining in 1% or more of the tumor cells was a positive score. Five methods for determining reference values were compared. All reference values showed 100% agreement for estrogen receptor and progesterone receptor scores, when indeterminate results were excluded. Individual laboratory performance (agreement rates, test sensitivity, test specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and κ value) was very similar for all reference values. Identification of suboptimal performance by all methods was identical for 30 of 31 laboratories. Estrogen receptor assessment of 1 laboratory was discordant: agreement was less than 90% for 3 of 5 reference values and greater than 90% with the use of 2 other reference values. Various reference values provide equivalent laboratory rating. In addition to descriptive feedback, our approach allows calculation of technical test sensitivity and specificity, positive and negative predictive values, agreement rates, and κ values to guide corrective actions.

  8. Relationship between efficiency and predictability in stock price change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eom, Cheoljun; Oh, Gabjin; Jung, Woo-Sung

    2008-09-01

    In this study, we evaluate the relationship between efficiency and predictability in the stock market. The efficiency, which is the issue addressed by the weak-form efficient market hypothesis, is calculated using the Hurst exponent and the approximate entropy (ApEn). The predictability corresponds to the hit-rate; this is the rate of consistency between the direction of the actual price change and that of the predicted price change, as calculated via the nearest neighbor prediction method. We determine that the Hurst exponent and the ApEn value are negatively correlated. However, predictability is positively correlated with the Hurst exponent.

  9. Does Enjoying Friendship Help or Impede Academic Achievement? Academic and Social Intrinsic Value Profiles Predict Academic Achievement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Seo, Eunjin; Lee, You-kyung

    2018-01-01

    We examine the intrinsic value students placed on schoolwork (i.e. academic intrinsic value) and social relationships (i.e. social intrinsic value). We then look at how these values predict middle and high school achievement. To do this, we came up with four profiles based on cluster analyses of 6,562 South Korean middle school students. The four…

  10. Choosing a design to fit the situation: how to improve specificity and positive predictive values using Bayesian lot quality assurance sampling.

    PubMed

    Olives, Casey; Pagano, Marcello

    2013-02-01

    Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS) is a provably useful tool for monitoring health programmes. Although LQAS ensures acceptable Producer and Consumer risks, the literature alleges that the method suffers from poor specificity and positive predictive values (PPVs). We suggest that poor LQAS performance is due, in part, to variation in the true underlying distribution. However, until now the role of the underlying distribution in expected performance has not been adequately examined. We present Bayesian-LQAS (B-LQAS), an approach to incorporating prior information into the choice of the LQAS sample size and decision rule, and explore its properties through a numerical study. Additionally, we analyse vaccination coverage data from UNICEF's State of the World's Children in 1968-1989 and 2008 to exemplify the performance of LQAS and B-LQAS. Results of our numerical study show that the choice of LQAS sample size and decision rule is sensitive to the distribution of prior information, as well as to individual beliefs about the importance of correct classification. Application of the B-LQAS approach to the UNICEF data improves specificity and PPV in both time periods (1968-1989 and 2008) with minimal reductions in sensitivity and negative predictive value. LQAS is shown to be a robust tool that is not necessarily prone to poor specificity and PPV as previously alleged. In situations where prior or historical data are available, B-LQAS can lead to improvements in expected performance.

  11. Choosing a design to fit the situation: how to improve specificity and positive predictive values using Bayesian lot quality assurance sampling

    PubMed Central

    Olives, Casey; Pagano, Marcello

    2013-01-01

    Background Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS) is a provably useful tool for monitoring health programmes. Although LQAS ensures acceptable Producer and Consumer risks, the literature alleges that the method suffers from poor specificity and positive predictive values (PPVs). We suggest that poor LQAS performance is due, in part, to variation in the true underlying distribution. However, until now the role of the underlying distribution in expected performance has not been adequately examined. Methods We present Bayesian-LQAS (B-LQAS), an approach to incorporating prior information into the choice of the LQAS sample size and decision rule, and explore its properties through a numerical study. Additionally, we analyse vaccination coverage data from UNICEF’s State of the World’s Children in 1968–1989 and 2008 to exemplify the performance of LQAS and B-LQAS. Results Results of our numerical study show that the choice of LQAS sample size and decision rule is sensitive to the distribution of prior information, as well as to individual beliefs about the importance of correct classification. Application of the B-LQAS approach to the UNICEF data improves specificity and PPV in both time periods (1968–1989 and 2008) with minimal reductions in sensitivity and negative predictive value. Conclusions LQAS is shown to be a robust tool that is not necessarily prone to poor specificity and PPV as previously alleged. In situations where prior or historical data are available, B-LQAS can lead to improvements in expected performance. PMID:23378151

  12. Investigation on financial crises with the negative-information-propagation-induced model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fan, Feng-Hua; Deng, Yanbin; Huang, Yong-Chang

    2017-03-01

    We first argue about the similarity between the propagation phenomenon of negative information about potential deterioration of economic situation in group of investors and the propagation phenomenon of infectious disease in crowd Applying the negative-information-propagation-induced model built based on above argument, we investigate the relationship between the generation of financial crises and propagation effects of negative information We introduce the discrimination parameter to distinguish whether or not negative information will be propagated extensively in group of investors. We also introduce the target critical value of financial crises. By comparing the theoretically predicted ratio of the long term projected number of total investors to the total number of investors at some time as initial time with target critical value of financial crises, the model can provide real-time monitoring of whether the curve of total number of investors is progressing toward the direction of generating financial crises or running on track of financial markets safety. If at some time this ratio is computed to be less than the target critical value of financial crises, governments can take relevant measures to prevent the generation of financial crises in advance Governments' interference helps to recover the confidence of investors so that they never will again believe in negative information to continue their investment. Results from theoretical and numerical analysis show that the number of investors who hold the belief of potential deterioration of economic situation, and the number of investors who withdraw capital and depart from financial markets for avoiding business loss when governments make appropriate interference are lowered compared to that without appropriate governments' interference. The results show the effectiveness of governments in preventing financial crises from the viewpoint of the negative information-propagation-induced model, namely governments

  13. Transdiagnostic assessment of repetitive negative thinking and responses to positive affect: Structure and predictive utility for depression, anxiety, and mania symptoms.

    PubMed

    McEvoy, Peter M; Hyett, Matthew P; Ehring, Thomas; Johnson, Sheri L; Samtani, Suraj; Anderson, Rebecca; Moulds, Michelle L

    2018-05-01

    Repetitive negative thinking (RNT) is a cognitive process that is repetitive, passive, relatively uncontrollable, and focused on negative content, and is elevated in emotional disorders including depression and anxiety disorders. Repetitive positive thinking is associated with bipolar disorder symptoms. The unique contributions of positive versus negative repetitive thinking to emotional symptoms are unknown. The first aim of this study was to use confirmatory factor analyses to evaluate the psychometrics of two transdiagnostic measures of RNT, the Repetitive Thinking Questionnaire (RTQ-10) and Perseverative Thinking Questionnaire (PTQ), and a measure of repetitive positive thinking, the Responses to Positive Affect (RPA) Questionnaire. The second aim was to determine incremental predictive utility of these measures. All measures were administered to a sample of 2088 undergraduate students from the Netherlands (n = 992), Australia (n = 698), and America (n = 398). Unidimensional, bifactor, and three-factor models were supported for the RTQ-10, PTQ, and RPA, respectively. A common factor measured by all PTQ items explained most variance in PTQ scores suggesting that this measure is essentially unidimensional. The RNT factor of the RTQ-10 demonstrated the strongest predictive utility, although the PTQ was also uniquely although weakly associated with anxiety, depression, and mania symptoms. The RPA dampening factor uniquely predicted anxiety and depression symptoms, suggesting that this scale is a separable process to RNT as measured by the RTQ-10 and PTQ. Findings were cross-sectional and need to be replicated in clinical samples. Transdiagnostic measures of RNT are essentially unidimensional, whereas RPA is multidimensional. RNT and RPA have unique predictive utility. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Additional Value of Transluminal Attenuation Gradient in CT Angiography to Predict Hemodynamic Significance of Coronary Artery Stenosis

    PubMed Central

    Stuijfzand, Wynand J.; Danad, Ibrahim; Raijmakers, Pieter G.; Marcu, C. Bogdan; Heymans, Martijn W.; van Kuijk, Cornelis C.; van Rossum, Albert C.; Nieman, Koen; Min, James K.; Leipsic, Jonathon; van Royen, Niels; Knaapen, Paul

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVES The current study evaluates the incremental value of transluminal attenuation gradient (TAG), TAG with corrected contrast opacification (CCO), and TAG with exclusion of calcified coronary segments (ExC) over coronary computed tomography angiogram (CTA) alone using fractional flow reserve (FFR) as the gold standard. BACKGROUND TAG is defined as the contrast opacification gradient along the length of a coronary artery on a coronary CTA. Preliminary data suggest that TAG provides additional functional information. Interpretation of TAG is hampered by multiple heartbeat acquisition algorithms and coronary calcifications. Two correction models have been proposed based on either dephasing of contrast delivery by relating coronary density to corresponding descending aortic opacification (TAG-CCO) or excluding calcified coronary segments (TAG-ExC). METHODS Eighty-five patients with intermediate probability of coronary artery disease were prospectively included. All patients underwent step-and-shoot 256-slice coronary CTA. TAG, TAG-CCO, and TAG-ExC analyses were performed followed by invasive coronary angiography in conjunction with FFR measurements of all major coronary branches. RESULTS Thirty-four patients (40%) were diagnosed with hemodynamically-significant coronary artery disease (i.e., FFR ≤0.80). On a per-vessel basis (n = 253), 59 lesions (23%) were graded as hemodynamically significant, and the diagnostic accuracy of coronary CTA (diameter stenosis ≥50%) was 95%, 75%, 98%, and 54% for sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value, and positive predictive value, respectively. TAG and TAG-ExC did not discriminate between vessels with or without hemodynamically significant lesions (−13.5 ± 17.1 HU [Hounsfield units] × 10 mm−1 vs. −11.6 ± 13.3 HU × 10 mm−1, p = 0.36; and 13.1 ± 15.9 HU × 10 mm−1 vs. −11.4 ± 11.7 HU × 10 mm−1, p = 0.77, respectively). TAG-CCO was lower in vessels with a hemodynamically-significant lesion (−0

  15. Training for assessment of negative symptoms of schizophrenia across languages and cultures: comparison of the NSA-16 with the PANSS Negative Subscale and Negative Symptom factor.

    PubMed

    Daniel, David G; Alphs, Larry; Cazorla, Pilar; Bartko, John J; Panagides, John

    2011-07-01

    The 16-item Negative Symptom Assessment scale (NSA-16) has been validated in English-speaking raters. We analyzed the level of agreement achieved among raters of different nationalities using the NSA-16 and the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) negative subscale and Marder negative factor. Raters participating in two international trials were trained in the use of each instrument through lectures and feedback on their ratings of at least one videotaped interview of a schizophrenic patient. Overall and regional (North America, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, South/Central America, and Australia and South Africa combined) kappa values were calculated and mean total scores were compared (1-way analysis of variance) by region for each instrument. In addition, within-scales variance was calculated by item to help identify negative symptoms that were particularly challenging to obtain agreement on across cultures. In the combined group of international raters, the kappa values for ratings of the NSA-16, PANSS negative subscale, and Marder negative factors were 0.89, 0.84, and 0.82, respectively. Kappa values calculated by geographic region ranged from 0.87 to 0.94 for the NSA-16 compared with 0.82 to 0.86 for the PANSS negative subscale and 0.79 to 0.87 for the PANSS Marder negative factor. Despite cultural and linguistic differences among raters, standardizing measurement of negative symptoms in international clinical trials is possible using available rating scales: NSA-16, PANSS negative subscale, and Marder negative subscale. Agreement among raters was at least as high using the NSA-16 as using the PANSS instruments.

  16. Behavioral observations of positive and negative valence systems in early childhood predict physiological measures of emotional processing three years later.

    PubMed

    Kessel, Ellen M; Kujawa, Autumn; Goldstein, Brandon; Hajcak, Greg; Bufferd, Sara J; Dyson, Margaret; Klein, Daniel N

    2017-07-01

    The Research Domain Criteria (RDoC) constructs of Positive Valence Systems (PVS) and Negative Valence Systems (NVS) are presumed to manifest behaviorally through early-emerging temperamental negative affectivity (NA) and positive affectivity (PA). The late positive potential (LPP) is a physiological measure of attention towards both negative and positive emotional stimuli; however, its associations with behavioral aspects of PVS and NVS have yet to be examined. In a community sample of children (N = 340), we examined longitudinal relationships between observational measures of temperamental PA and NA assessed at age 6, and the LPP to both pleasant and unpleasant images assessed at age 9. Lower PA at age 6 predicted reduced LPP amplitudes to pleasant, but not unpleasant, images. NA as a composite measure was not related to the LPP, but specific associations were observed with facets of NA: greater fear predicted an enhanced LPP to unpleasant images, whereas greater sadness predicted a reduced LPP to unpleasant images. We were unable to evaluate concurrent associations between behavioral observations of temperament and the LPP, and effect sizes were modest. Results support correspondence between behavioral and physiological measures of emotional processing across development, and provide evidence of discriminant validity in that PA was specifically related to the LPP to pleasant images, while facets of NA were specifically linked to the LPP to unpleasant images. Distinct associations of temperamental sadness and fear with the LPP highlight the importance of further evaluating subconstructs of NVS. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Predictive value of the transtheoretical model to smoking cessation in hospitalized patients with cardiovascular disease.

    PubMed

    Chouinard, Maud-Christine; Robichaud-Ekstrand, Sylvie

    2007-02-01

    Several authors have questioned the transtheoretical model. Determining the predictive value of each cognitive-behavioural element within this model could explain the multiple successes reported in smoking cessation programmes. The purpose of this study was to predict point-prevalent smoking abstinence at 2 and 6 months, using the constructs of the transtheoretical model, when applied to a pooled sample of individuals who were hospitalized for a cardiovascular event. The study follows a predictive correlation design. Recently hospitalized patients (n=168) with cardiovascular disease were pooled from a randomized, controlled trial. Independent variables of the predictive transtheoretical model comprise stages and processes of change, pros and cons to quit smoking (decisional balance), self-efficacy, and social support. These were evaluated at baseline, 2 and 6 months. Compared to smokers, individuals who abstained from smoking at 2 and 6 months were more confident at baseline to remain non-smokers, perceived less pros and cons to continue smoking, utilized less consciousness raising and self-re-evaluation experiential processes of change, and received more positive reinforcement from their social network with regard to their smoke-free behaviour. Self-efficacy and stages of change at baseline were predictive of smoking abstinence after 6 months. Other variables found to be predictive of smoking abstinence at 6 months were an increase in self-efficacy; an increase in positive social support behaviour and a decrease of the pros within the decisional balance. The results partially support the predictive value of the transtheoretical model constructs in smoking cessation for cardiovascular disease patients.

  18. Clinical value of gallium-67 scintigraphy in assessment of disease activity in Wegener's granulomatosis

    PubMed Central

    Slart, R; Jager, P; Poot, L; Piers, D; Cohen, T; Stegeman, C

    2003-01-01

    Background: Diagnosis of active pulmonary and paranasal involvement in patients with Wegener's granulomatosis (WG) can be difficult. The diagnostic value of gallium-67 scintigraphy in WG is unclear. Objective: To evaluate the added diagnostic value of gallium-67 scintigraphy in patients with WG with suspected granulomatous inflammation in the paranasal and chest regions. Methods: Retrospectively, the diagnostic contribution of chest and head planar gallium scans in 40 episodes of suspected vasculitis disease activity in 28 patients with WG was evaluated. Scans were grouped into normal or increased uptake for each region. Histological proof or response to treatment was the "gold standard" for the presence of WG activity. Results: WG activity was confirmed in 8 (20%) episodes, with pulmonary locations in three, paranasal in four, and both in one (n=7 patients); all these gallium scans showed increased gallium uptake (sensitivity 100%). Gallium scans were negative for the pulmonary area in 23/36 scans (specificity 64%), and negative for paranasal activity in 13/16 scans (specificity 81%) in episodes without WG activity. Positive predictive value of WG activity for lungs and paranasal region was 24% and 63%, respectively, negative predictive value was 100% for both regions. False positive findings were caused by bacterial or viral infections. Conclusion: Gallium scans are clinically helpful as a negative scan virtually excludes active WG. Gallium scintigraphy of chest and nasal region has a high sensitivity for the detection of disease activity in WG. However, because of positive scans in cases of bacterial or viral infections, specificity was lower. PMID:12810430

  19. Mindful attention predicts greater recovery from negative emotions, but not reduced reactivity.

    PubMed

    Cho, Sinhae; Lee, Hyejeen; Oh, Kyung Ja; Soto, José A

    2017-09-01

    This study investigated the role of dispositional mindful attention in immediate reactivity to, and subsequent recovery from, laboratory-induced negative emotion. One hundred and fourteen undergraduates viewed blocks of negative pictures followed by neutral pictures. Participants' emotional responses to negative pictures and subsequent neutral pictures were assessed via self-reported ratings. Participants' emotional response to negative pictures was used to index level of emotional reactivity to unpleasant stimuli; emotional response to neutral pictures presented immediately after the negative pictures was used to index level of emotional recovery from pre-induced negative emotion (residual negativity). Results indicated that mindful attention was not associated with the emotional response to negative pictures, but it was associated with reduced negative emotion in response to the neutral pictures presented immediately after the negative pictures, suggesting better recovery as opposed to reduced reactivity. This effect was especially pronounced in later experimental blocks when the accumulation of negative stimuli produced greater negative emotion from which participants had to recover. The current study extends previous findings on the relationship between dispositional mindfulness and reduced negative emotion by demonstrating that mindful attention may facilitate better recovery from negative emotion, possibly through more effective disengagement from previous stimuli.

  20. Does the Value of Dynamic Assessment in Predicting End-of-First-Grade Mathematics Performance Differ as a Function of English Language Proficiency?

    PubMed Central

    Seethaler, Pamela M.; Fuchs, Lynn S.; Fuchs, Douglas; Compton, Donald L.

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the added value of dynamic assessment (DA) beyond more conventional static measures for predicting individual differences in year-end 1st-grade calculation (CA) and word-problem (WP) performance, as a function of limited English proficiency (LEP) status. At the start of 1st grade, students (129 LEP; 163 non-LEP) were assessed on a brief static mathematics test, an extended static mathematics test, static tests of domain-general abilities associated with CAs and WPs (vocabulary; reasoning), and DA. Near end of 1st grade, they were assessed on CA and WP. Regression analyses indicated that the value of the predictor depends on the predicted outcome and LEP status. In predicting CAs, the extended mathematics test and DA uniquely explained variance for LEP children, with stronger predictive value for the extended mathematics test; for non-LEP children, the extended mathematics test was the only significant predictor. However, in predicting WPs, only DA and vocabulary were uniquely predictive for LEP children, with stronger value for DA; for non-LEP children, the extended mathematics test and DA were comparably uniquely predictive. Neither the brief static mathematics test nor reasoning was significant in predicting either outcome. The potential value of a gated screening process, using an extended mathematics assessment to predict CAs and using DA to predict WPs, is discussed. PMID:26523068

  1. The incremental value of self-reported mental health measures in predicting functional outcomes of veterans.

    PubMed

    Eisen, Susan V; Bottonari, Kathryn A; Glickman, Mark E; Spiro, Avron; Schultz, Mark R; Herz, Lawrence; Rosenheck, Robert; Rofman, Ethan S

    2011-04-01

    Research on patient-centered care supports use of patient/consumer self-report measures in monitoring health outcomes. This study examined the incremental value of self-report mental health measures relative to a clinician-rated measure in predicting functional outcomes among mental health service recipients. Participants (n = 446) completed the Behavior and Symptom Identification Scale, the Brief Symptom Inventory, and the Veterans/Rand Short Form-36 at enrollment in the study (T1) and 3 months later (T2). Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF) ratings, mental health service utilization, and psychiatric diagnoses were obtained from administrative data files. Controlling for demographic and clinical variables, results indicated that improvement based on the self-report measures significantly predicted one or more functional outcomes (i.e., decreased likelihood of post-enrollment psychiatric hospitalization and increased likelihood of paid employment), above and beyond the predictive value of the GAF. Inclusion of self-report measures may be a useful addition to performance measurement efforts.

  2. The application of SEAT values for predicting how compliant seats with backrests influence vibration discomfort.

    PubMed

    Basri, Bazil; Griffin, Michael J

    2014-11-01

    The extent to which a seat can provide useful attenuation of vehicle vibration depends on three factors: the characteristics of the vehicle motion, the vibration transmissibility of the seat, and the sensitivity of the body to vibration. The 'seat effective amplitude transmissibility' (i.e., SEAT value) reflects how these three factors vary with the frequency and the direction of vibration so as to predict the vibration isolation efficiency of a seat. The SEAT value is mostly used to select seat cushions or seat suspensions based on the transmission of vertical vibration to the principal supporting surface of a seat. This study investigated the accuracy of SEAT values in predicting how seats with backrests influence the discomfort caused by multiple-input vibration. Twelve male subjects participated in a four-part experiment to determine equivalent comfort contours, the relative discomfort, the location of discomfort, and seat transmissibility with three foam seats and a rigid reference seat at 14 frequencies of vibration in the range 1-20 Hz at magnitudes of vibration from 0.2 to 1.6 ms(-2) r.m.s. The 'measured seat dynamic discomfort' (MSDD) was calculated for each foam seat from the ratio of the vibration acceleration required to cause similar discomfort with the foam seat and with the rigid reference seat. Using the frequency weightings in current standards, the SEAT values of each seat were calculated from the ratio of overall ride values with the foam seat to the overall ride values with the rigid reference seat, and compared to the corresponding MSDD at each frequency. The SEAT values provided good predictions of how the foam seats increased vibration discomfort at frequencies around the 4-Hz resonance but reduced vibration discomfort at frequencies greater than about 6.3 Hz, with discrepancies explained by a known limitation of the frequency weightings. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

  3. The predictive value of physical examination findings in patients with suspected acute heart failure syndrome.

    PubMed

    Jang, Timothy B; Aubin, Chandra; Naunheim, Rosanne; Lewis, Lawrence M; Kaji, Amy H

    2012-06-01

    It can be difficult to differentiate acute heart failure syndrome (AHFS) from other causes of acute dyspnea, especially when patients present in extremis. The objective of the study was to determine the predictive value of physical examination findings for pulmonary edema and elevated B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels in patients with suspected AHFS. This was a secondary analysis of a previously reported prospective study of jugular vein ultrasonography in patients with suspected AHFS. Charts were reviewed for physical examination findings, which were then compared to pulmonary edema on chest radiography (CXR) read by radiologists blinded to clinical information and BNP levels measured at presentation. The predictive value of every sign and combination of signs for pulmonary edema on CXR or an elevated BNP was poor. Since physical examination findings alone are not predictive of pulmonary edema or an elevated BNP, clinicians should have a low threshold for using CXR or BNP in clinical evaluation. This brief research report suggests that no physical examination finding or constellation of findings can be used to reliably predict pulmonary edema or an elevated BNP in patients with suspected AHFS.

  4. Relationship among performance, carcass, and feed efficiency characteristics, and their ability to predict economic value in the feedlot.

    PubMed

    Retallick, K M; Faulkner, D B; Rodriguez-Zas, S L; Nkrumah, J D; Shike, D W

    2013-12-01

    A 4-yr study was conducted using 736 steers of known Angus, Simmental, or Simmental × Angus genetics to determine performance, carcass, and feed efficiency factors that explained variation in economic performance. Steers were pen fed and individual DMI was recorded using a GrowSafe automated feeding system (GrowSafe Systems Ltd., Airdrie, Alberta, Canada). Steers consumed a similar diet and received similar management each year. The objectives of this study were to: 1) determine current economic value of feed efficiency and 2) identify performance, carcass, and feed efficiency characteristics that predict: carcass value, profit, cost of gain, and feed costs. Economic data used were from 2011 values. Feed efficiency values investigated were: feed conversion ratio (FCR; feed to gain), residual feed intake (RFI), residual BW gain (RG), and residual intake and BW gain (RIG). Dependent variables were carcass value ($/steer), profit ($/steer), feed costs ($/steer • d(-1)), and cost of gain ($/kg). Independent variables were year, DMI, ADG, HCW, LM area, marbling, yield grade, dam breed, and sire breed. A 10% improvement in RG (P < 0.05) yielded the lowest cost of gain at $0.09/kg and highest carcass value at $17.92/steer. Carcass value increased (P < 0.05) as feed efficiency improved for FCR, RG, and RIG. Profit increased with a 10% improvement in feed efficiency (P < 0.05) with FCR at $34.65/steer, RG at $31.21/steer, RIG at $21.66/steer, and RFI at $11.47/steer. The carcass value prediction model explained 96% of the variation among carcasses and included HCW, marbling score, and yield grade. Average daily gain, marbling score, yield grade, DMI, HCW, and year born constituted 81% of the variation for prediction of profit. Eighty-five percent of the variation in cost of gain was explained by ADG, DMI, HCW, and year. Prediction equations were developed that excluded ADG and DMI, and included feed efficiency values. Using these equations, cost of gain was explained

  5. Positive and negative emotional contexts unevenly predict episodic memory.

    PubMed

    Martínez-Galindo, Joyce Graciela; Cansino, Selene

    2015-09-15

    The aim of this study was to investigate whether the recognition of faces with neutral expressions differs when they are encoded under different emotional contexts (positive, negative or non-emotional). The effects of the emotional valence context on the subsequent memory effect (SME) and the autonomic responses were also examined. Twenty-eight participants performed a betting-game task in which the faces of their virtual opponents were presented in each trial. The probability of winning or losing was manipulated to generate positive or negative contexts, respectively. Additionally, the participants performed the same task without betting as a non-emotional condition. After the encoding phase, an old/new paradigm was performed for the faces of the virtual opponents. The recognition was superior for the faces encoded in the positive contexts than for the faces encoded in the non-emotional contexts. The skin conductance response amplitude was equivalent for both of the emotional contexts. The N170 and P300 components at occipital sites and the frontal slow wave manifested SMEs that were modulated by positive contexts; neither negative nor non-emotional contexts influenced these effects. The behavioral and neurophysiological data demonstrated that positive contexts are stronger predictors of episodic memory than negative or non-emotional contexts. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Conflicts among human values and trust in institutions.

    PubMed

    Devos, Thierry; Spini, Dario; Schwartz, Shalom H

    2002-12-01

    Institutions contribute to maintaining social order and stability in society. At the same time, they restrain the freedom of individuals. Based on the theory of value structure and content (Schwartz, 1992), we hypothesized about the relations of people's trust in institutions to their value priorities. More precisely, we predicted and found that the level of trust in various institutions correlated positively with values that stress stability, protection, and preservation of traditional practices, and negatively with values that emphasize independent thought and action and favour change. In addition, we demonstrated that groups defined on the basis of religious affiliation or political orientation exhibited contrasting value priorities on the same bipolar dimension. Moreover, differences in value priorities accounted for the fact that religious individuals and right-wing supporters expressed more trust in institutions than non-religious individuals and left-wing supporters.

  7. Non-negative infrared patch-image model: Robust target-background separation via partial sum minimization of singular values

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dai, Yimian; Wu, Yiquan; Song, Yu; Guo, Jun

    2017-03-01

    To further enhance the small targets and suppress the heavy clutters simultaneously, a robust non-negative infrared patch-image model via partial sum minimization of singular values is proposed. First, the intrinsic reason behind the undesirable performance of the state-of-the-art infrared patch-image (IPI) model when facing extremely complex backgrounds is analyzed. We point out that it lies in the mismatching of IPI model's implicit assumption of a large number of observations with the reality of deficient observations of strong edges. To fix this problem, instead of the nuclear norm, we adopt the partial sum of singular values to constrain the low-rank background patch-image, which could provide a more accurate background estimation and almost eliminate all the salient residuals in the decomposed target image. In addition, considering the fact that the infrared small target is always brighter than its adjacent background, we propose an additional non-negative constraint to the sparse target patch-image, which could not only wipe off more undesirable components ulteriorly but also accelerate the convergence rate. Finally, an algorithm based on inexact augmented Lagrange multiplier method is developed to solve the proposed model. A large number of experiments are conducted demonstrating that the proposed model has a significant improvement over the other nine competitive methods in terms of both clutter suppressing performance and convergence rate.

  8. [Diagnostic value of dynamic monitoring of C-reactive protein in drain drainage to predict early anastomotic leakage after colorectal cancer surgery].

    PubMed

    Lu, Jia; Zheng, Lei; Li, Runtian; Hao, Chunmin; Gao, Wenbin; Feng, Ziwei; Yin, Guangya; Wang, Yue

    2017-09-25

    (all P>0.05). ROC curve was drawn with AL condition as state variables and CRP level as test variables. The AUC of POD 1 to 4 was 0.425, 0.487, 0.510, 0.522 respectively and the AUC of POD 5 was the largest, 0.657 (95%CI:0.537-0.777). The largest Youden Index was 0.274. The critical value of CRP was 27.15 g/L. When this value was used as the point of tangency to predict the occurrence of AL, the sensitivity was 87.5%, the specificity was 39.9%, positive predictive value was 19.1%, and negative predictive value was 95.2%. Continuous increase of CRP level in abdominal drainage fluid from POD 1 to POD 5 indicates the occurrence of AL after colorectal cancer operation, especially the detection of CRP level at POD 5 is important.

  9. How long the singular value decomposed entropy predicts the stock market? - Evidence from the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gu, Rongbao; Shao, Yanmin

    2016-07-01

    In this paper, a new concept of multi-scales singular value decomposition entropy based on DCCA cross correlation analysis is proposed and its predictive power for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is studied. Using Granger causality analysis with different time scales, it is found that, the singular value decomposition entropy has predictive power for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index for period less than one month, but not for more than one month. This shows how long the singular value decomposition entropy predicts the stock market that extends Caraiani's result obtained in Caraiani (2014). On the other hand, the result also shows an essential characteristic of stock market as a chaotic dynamic system.

  10. Can history and exam alone reliably predict pneumonia?

    PubMed

    Graffelman, A W; le Cessie, S; Knuistingh Neven, A; Wilemssen, F E J A; Zonderland, H M; van den Broek, P J

    2007-06-01

    Prediction rules based on clinical information have been developed to support the diagnosis of pneumonia and help limit the use of expensive diagnostic tests. However, these prediction rules need to be validated in the primary care setting. Adults who met our definition of lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) were recruited for a prospective study on the causes of LRTI, between November 15, 1998 and June 1, 2001 in the Leiden region of The Netherlands. Clinical information was collected and chest radiography was performed. A literature search was also done to find prediction rules for pneumonia. 129 patients--26 with pneumonia and 103 without--were included, and 6 prediction rules were applied. Only the model with the addition of a test for C-reactive protein had a significant area under the curve of 0.69 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.58-0.80), with a positive predictive value of 47% (95% CI, 23-71) and a negative predictive value of 84% (95% CI, 77-91). The pretest probabilities for the presence and absence of pneumonia were 20% and 80%, respectively. Models based only on clinical information do not reliably predict the presence of pneumonia. The addition of an elevated C-reactive protein level seems of little value.

  11. Prediction of main factors’ values of air transportation system safety based on system dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spiridonov, A. Yu; Rezchikov, A. F.; Kushnikov, V. A.; Ivashchenko, V. A.; Bogomolov, A. S.; Filimonyuk, L. Yu; Dolinina, O. N.; Kushnikova, E. V.; Shulga, T. E.; Tverdokhlebov, V. A.; Kushnikov, O. V.; Fominykh, D. S.

    2018-05-01

    On the basis of the system-dynamic approach [1-8], a set of models has been developed that makes it possible to analyse and predict the values of the main safety indicators for the operation of aviation transport systems.

  12. CA19-9 serum levels predict micrometastases in patients with gastric cancer

    PubMed Central

    Potrc, Stojan; Mis, Katarina; Plankl, Mojca; Mars, Tomaz

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Background We explored the prognostic value of the up-regulated carbohydrate antigen (CA19-9) in node-negative patients with gastric cancer as a surrogate marker for micrometastases. Patients and methods Micrometastases were determined using reverse transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) for a subgroup of 30 node-negative patients. This group was used to determine the cut-off for preoperative CA19-9 serum levels as a surrogate marker for micrometastases. Then 187 node-negative T1 to T4 patients were selected to validate the predictive value of this CA19-9 threshold. Results Patients with micrometastases had significantly higher preoperative CA19-9 serum levels compared to patients without micrometastases (p = 0.046). CA19-9 serum levels were significantly correlated with tumour site, tumour diameter, and perineural invasion. Although not reaching significance, subgroup analysis showed better five-year survival rates for patients with CA19-9 serum levels below the threshold, compared to patients with CA19-9 serum levels above the cut-off. The cumulative survival for T2 to T4 node-negative patients was significantly better with CA19-9 serum levels below the cut-off (p = 0.04). Conclusions Preoperative CA19-9 serum levels can be used to predict higher risk for haematogenous spread and micrometastases in node-negative patients. However, CA19-9 serum levels lack the necessary sensitivity and specificity to reliably predict micrometastases. PMID:27247553

  13. Vasospasm on transcranial Doppler is predictive of delayed cerebral ischemia in aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Kumar, Gyanendra; Shahripour, Reza Bavarsad; Harrigan, Mark R

    2016-05-01

    OBJECT The impact of transcranial Doppler (TCD) ultrasonography evidence of vasospasm on patient-centered clinical outcomes following aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) is unknown. Vasospasm is known to lead to delayed cerebral ischemia (DCI) and poor outcomes. This systematic review and meta-analysis evaluates the predictive value of vasospasm on DCI, as diagnosed on TCD. METHODS MEDLINE, Scopus, the Cochrane trial register, and clinicaltrials.gov were searched through September 2014 using key words and the terms "subarachnoid hemorrhage," "aneurysm," "aneurysmal," "cerebral vasospasm," "vasospasm," "transcranial Doppler," and "TCD." Sensitivities, specificities, and positive and negative predictive values were pooled by a DerSimonian and Laird random-effects model. RESULTS Seventeen studies (n = 2870 patients) met inclusion criteria. The amount of variance attributable to heterogeneity was significant (I(2) > 50%) for all syntheses. No studies reported the impact of TCD evidence of vasospasm on functional outcome or mortality. TCD evidence of vasospasm was found to be highly predictive of DCI. Pooled estimates for TCD diagnosis of vasospasm (for DCI) were sensitivity 90% (95% confidence interval [CI] 77%-96%), specificity 71% (95% CI 51%-84%), positive predictive value 57% (95% CI 38%-71%), and negative predictive value 92% (95% CI 83%-96%). CONCLUSIONS TCD evidence of vasospasm is predictive of DCI with high accuracy. Although high sensitivity and negative predictive value make TCD an ideal monitoring device, it is not a mandated standard of care in aSAH due to the paucity of evidence on clinically relevant outcomes, despite recommendation by national guidelines. High-quality randomized trials evaluating the impact of TCD monitoring on patient-centered and physician-relevant outcomes are needed.

  14. Pathway-Enriched Gene Signature Associated with 53BP1 Response to PARP Inhibition in Triple-Negative Breast Cancer.

    PubMed

    Hassan, Saima; Esch, Amanda; Liby, Tiera; Gray, Joe W; Heiser, Laura M

    2017-12-01

    Effective treatment of patients with triple-negative (ER-negative, PR-negative, HER2-negative) breast cancer remains a challenge. Although PARP inhibitors are being evaluated in clinical trials, biomarkers are needed to identify patients who will most benefit from anti-PARP therapy. We determined the responses of three PARP inhibitors (veliparib, olaparib, and talazoparib) in a panel of eight triple-negative breast cancer cell lines. Therapeutic responses and cellular phenotypes were elucidated using high-content imaging and quantitative immunofluorescence to assess markers of DNA damage (53BP1) and apoptosis (cleaved PARP). We determined the pharmacodynamic changes as percentage of cells positive for 53BP1, mean number of 53BP1 foci per cell, and percentage of cells positive for cleaved PARP. Inspired by traditional dose-response measures of cell viability, an EC 50 value was calculated for each cellular phenotype and each PARP inhibitor. The EC 50 values for both 53BP1 metrics strongly correlated with IC 50 values for each PARP inhibitor. Pathway enrichment analysis identified a set of DNA repair and cell cycle-associated genes that were associated with 53BP1 response following PARP inhibition. The overall accuracy of our 63 gene set in predicting response to olaparib in seven breast cancer patient-derived xenograft tumors was 86%. In triple-negative breast cancer patients who had not received anti-PARP therapy, the predicted response rate of our gene signature was 45%. These results indicate that 53BP1 is a biomarker of response to anti-PARP therapy in the laboratory, and our DNA damage response gene signature may be used to identify patients who are most likely to respond to PARP inhibition. Mol Cancer Ther; 16(12); 2892-901. ©2017 AACR . ©2017 American Association for Cancer Research.

  15. The Predictive Role of Values and Perceived Social Support Variables in Marital Adjustment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mert, Abdullah

    2018-01-01

    The aim of this study was to examine the predictive role of values and perceived social support variables in marital adjustment level among married individuals. A total of 422 (211 pairs) married individuals who agreed to participate voluntarily were included. The study was conducted in accordance with the relational screening model. "Dyadic…

  16. Evaluating the Predictive Value of Growth Prediction Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Murphy, Daniel L.; Gaertner, Matthew N.

    2014-01-01

    This study evaluates four growth prediction models--projection, student growth percentile, trajectory, and transition table--commonly used to forecast (and give schools credit for) middle school students' future proficiency. Analyses focused on vertically scaled summative mathematics assessments, and two performance standards conditions (high…

  17. Curiosity and reward: Valence predicts choice and information prediction errors enhance learning.

    PubMed

    Marvin, Caroline B; Shohamy, Daphna

    2016-03-01

    Curiosity drives many of our daily pursuits and interactions; yet, we know surprisingly little about how it works. Here, we harness an idea implied in many conceptualizations of curiosity: that information has value in and of itself. Reframing curiosity as the motivation to obtain reward-where the reward is information-allows one to leverage major advances in theoretical and computational mechanisms of reward-motivated learning. We provide new evidence supporting 2 predictions that emerge from this framework. First, we find an asymmetric effect of positive versus negative information, with positive information enhancing both curiosity and long-term memory for information. Second, we find that it is not the absolute value of information that drives learning but, rather, the gap between the reward expected and reward received, an "information prediction error." These results support the idea that information functions as a reward, much like money or food, guiding choices and driving learning in systematic ways. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  18. Different predictive values of interim 18F-FDG PET/CT in germinal center like and non-germinal center like diffuse large B-cell lymphoma.

    PubMed

    Kim, Jihyun; Lee, Jeong-Ok; Paik, Jin Ho; Lee, Won Woo; Kim, Sang Eun; Song, Yoo Sung

    2017-01-01

    Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) is a pathologically heterogeneous disease with different prognoses according to its molecular profiles. Despite the broad usage of 18 F-fluoro-2-dexoxy-D-glucose (FDG) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT), previous studies that have investigated the value of interim 18 F-FDG PET/CT in DLBCL have given the controversial results. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of interim 18 F-FDG PET/CT in DLBCL according to germinal center B cell-like (GCB) and non-GCB molecular profiling. We enrolled 118 newly diagnosed DLBCL patients treated with rituximab, cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, and prednisolone (R-CHOP). Interim 18 F-FDG PET/CT scans performed after 2 or 3 cycles of R-CHOP treatment were evaluated based on the Lugano response criteria. Patients were grouped as GCB or non-GCB molecular subtypes according to immunohistochemistry results of CD10, BCL6, and MUM1, based on Hans' algorithm. In total 118 DLBCL patients, 35 % were classified as GCB, and 65 % were classified as non-GCB. Interim PET/CT was negative in 70 %, and positive in 30 %. During the median follow-up period of 23 months, the positive interim 18 F-FDG PET/CT group showed significantly inferior progression free survival (PFS) compared to the negative interim 18 F-FDG PET/CT group (P = 0.0004) in entire patients. A subgroup analysis according to molecular profiling demonstrated significant difference of PFS between the positive and negative interim 18 F-FDG PET groups in GCB subtype of DLBCL (P = 0.0001), but there was no significant difference of PFS between the positive and negative interim 18 F-FDG PET groups in non-GCB subtype of DLBCL. Interim 18 F-FDG PET/CT scanning had a significant predictive value for disease progression in patients with the GCB subtype of DLBCL treated with R-CHOP, but not in those with the non-GCB subtype. Therefore, molecular profiles of DLBCL should be considered for

  19. Prediction of strain values in reinforcements and concrete of a RC frame using neural networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vafaei, Mohammadreza; Alih, Sophia C.; Shad, Hossein; Falah, Ali; Halim, Nur Hajarul Falahi Abdul

    2018-03-01

    The level of strain in structural elements is an important indicator for the presence of damage and its intensity. Considering this fact, often structural health monitoring systems employ strain gauges to measure strains in critical elements. However, because of their sensitivity to the magnetic fields, inadequate long-term durability especially in harsh environments, difficulties in installation on existing structures, and maintenance cost, installation of strain gauges is not always possible for all structural components. Therefore, a reliable method that can accurately estimate strain values in critical structural elements is necessary for damage identification. In this study, a full-scale test was conducted on a planar RC frame to investigate the capability of neural networks for predicting the strain values. Two neural networks each of which having a single hidden layer was trained to relate the measured rotations and vertical displacements of the frame to the strain values measured at different locations of the frame. Results of trained neural networks indicated that they accurately estimated the strain values both in reinforcements and concrete. In addition, the trained neural networks were capable of predicting strains for the unseen input data set.

  20. Genetic parameters and prediction of genotypic values for root quality traits in cassava using REML/BLUP.

    PubMed

    Oliveira, E J; Santana, F A; Oliveira, L A; Santos, V S

    2014-08-28

    The aim of this study was to estimate the genetic parameters and predict the genotypic values of root quality traits in cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz) using restricted maximum likelihood (REML) and best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP). A total of 471 cassava accessions were evaluated over two years of cultivation. The evaluated traits included amylose content (AML), root dry matter (DMC), cyanogenic compounds (CyC), and starch yield (StYi). Estimates of the individual broad-sense heritability of AML were low (hg(2) = 0.07 ± 0.02), medium for StYi and DMC, and high for CyC. The heritability of AML was substantially improved based on mean of accessions (hm(2) = 0.28), indicating that some strategies such as increasing the number of repetitions can be used to increase the selective efficiency. In general, the observed genotypic values were very close to the predicted average of the improved population, most likely due to the high accuracy (>0.90), especially for DMC, CyC, and StYi. Gains via selection of the 30 best genotypes for each trait were 4.8 and 3.2% for an increase and decrease for AML, respectively, an increase of 10.75 and 74.62% for DMC for StYi, respectively, and a decrease of 89.60% for CyC in relation to the overall mean of the genotypic values. Genotypic correlations between the quality traits of the cassava roots collected were generally favorable, although they were low in magnitude. The REML/BLUP method was adequate for estimating genetic parameters and predicting the genotypic values, making it useful for cassava breeding.

  1. The influence of prostate-specific antigen density on positive and negative predictive values of multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging to detect Gleason score 7-10 prostate cancer in a repeat biopsy setting.

    PubMed

    Hansen, Nienke L; Barrett, Tristan; Koo, Brendan; Doble, Andrew; Gnanapragasam, Vincent; Warren, Anne; Kastner, Christof; Bratt, Ola

    2017-05-01

    To evaluate the influence of prostate-specific antigen density (PSAD) on positive (PPV) and negative (NPV) predictive values of multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) to detect Gleason score ≥7 cancer in a repeat biopsy setting. Retrospective study of 514 men with previous prostate biopsy showing no or Gleason score 6 cancer. All had mpMRI, graded 1-5 on a Likert scale for cancer suspicion, and subsequent targeted and 24-core systematic image-fusion guided transperineal biopsy in 2013-2015. The NPVs and PPVs of mpMRIs for detecting Gleason score ≥7 cancer were calculated (±95% confidence intervals) for PSAD ≤0.1, 0.1-0.2, ≤0.2 and >0.2 ng/mL/mL, and compared by chi-square test for linear trend. Gleason score ≥7 cancer was detected in 31% of the men. The NPV of Likert 1-2 mpMRI was 0.91 (±0.04) with a PSAD of ≤0.2 ng/mL/mL and 0.71 (±0.16) with a PSAD of >0.2 ng/mL/mL (P = 0.003). For Likert 3 mpMRI, PPV was 0.09 (±0.06) with a PSAD of ≤0.2 ng/mL/mL and 0.44 (±0.19) with a PSAD of >0.2 ng/mL/mL (P = 0.002). PSAD also significantly affected the PPV of Likert 4-5 mpMRI lesions: the PPV was 0.47 (±0.08) with a PSAD of ≤0.2 ng/mL/mL and 0.66 (±0.10) with a PSAD of >0.2 ng/mL/mL (P < 0.001). In a repeat biopsy setting, a PSAD of ≤0.2 ng/mL/mL is associated with low detection of Gleason score ≥7 prostate cancer, not only in men with negative mpMRI, but also in men with equivocal imaging. Surveillance, rather than repeat biopsy, may be appropriate for these men. Conversely, biopsies are indicated in men with a high PSAD, even if an mpMRI shows no suspicious lesion, and in men with an mpMRI suspicious for cancer, even if the PSAD is low. © 2016 The Authors BJU International © 2016 BJU International Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Changes of Attention during Value-Based Reversal Learning Are Tracked by N2pc and Feedback-Related Negativity

    PubMed Central

    Oemisch, Mariann; Watson, Marcus R.; Womelsdorf, Thilo; Schubö, Anna

    2017-01-01

    Previously learned reward values can have a pronounced impact, behaviorally and neurophysiologically, on the allocation of selective attention. All else constant, stimuli previously associated with a high value gain stronger attentional prioritization than stimuli previously associated with a low value. The N2pc, an ERP component indicative of attentional target selection, has been shown to reflect aspects of this prioritization, by changes of mean amplitudes closely corresponding to selective enhancement of high value target processing and suppression of high value distractor processing. What has remained unclear so far is whether the N2pc also reflects the flexible and repeated behavioral adjustments needed in a volatile task environment, in which the values of stimuli are reversed often and unannounced. Using a value-based reversal learning task, we found evidence that the N2pc amplitude flexibly and reversibly tracks value-based choices during the learning of reward associated stimulus colors. Specifically, successful learning of current value-contingencies was associated with reduced N2pc amplitudes, and this effect was more apparent for distractor processing, compared with target processing. In addition, following a value reversal the feedback related negativity(FRN), an ERP component that reflects feedback processing, was amplified and co-occurred with increased N2pc amplitudes in trials following low-value feedback. Importantly, participants that showed the greatest adjustment in N2pc amplitudes based on feedback were also the most efficient learners. These results allow further insight into how changes in attentional prioritization in an uncertain and volatile environment support flexible adjustments of behavior. PMID:29163113

  3. Changes of Attention during Value-Based Reversal Learning Are Tracked by N2pc and Feedback-Related Negativity.

    PubMed

    Oemisch, Mariann; Watson, Marcus R; Womelsdorf, Thilo; Schubö, Anna

    2017-01-01

    Previously learned reward values can have a pronounced impact, behaviorally and neurophysiologically, on the allocation of selective attention. All else constant, stimuli previously associated with a high value gain stronger attentional prioritization than stimuli previously associated with a low value. The N2pc, an ERP component indicative of attentional target selection, has been shown to reflect aspects of this prioritization, by changes of mean amplitudes closely corresponding to selective enhancement of high value target processing and suppression of high value distractor processing. What has remained unclear so far is whether the N2pc also reflects the flexible and repeated behavioral adjustments needed in a volatile task environment, in which the values of stimuli are reversed often and unannounced. Using a value-based reversal learning task, we found evidence that the N2pc amplitude flexibly and reversibly tracks value-based choices during the learning of reward associated stimulus colors. Specifically, successful learning of current value-contingencies was associated with reduced N2pc amplitudes, and this effect was more apparent for distractor processing, compared with target processing. In addition, following a value reversal the feedback related negativity(FRN), an ERP component that reflects feedback processing, was amplified and co-occurred with increased N2pc amplitudes in trials following low-value feedback. Importantly, participants that showed the greatest adjustment in N2pc amplitudes based on feedback were also the most efficient learners. These results allow further insight into how changes in attentional prioritization in an uncertain and volatile environment support flexible adjustments of behavior.

  4. Prognostic Value of Negative Coronary CT Angiography in Severely Obese Patients Prior to Bariatric Surgery: a Follow-Up After 6 Years.

    PubMed

    Messerli, Michael; Maywald, Céline; Wälti, Stephan; Warschkow, René; Wildermuth, Simon; Alkadhi, Hatem; Leschka, Sebastian; Schiesser, Marc

    2017-08-01

    This study aims to determine the long-term prognostic value of coronary CT angiography (CCTA) prior to bariatric surgery in severely obese patients with a body mass index (BMI) ≥35 kg/m 2 . Seventy consecutive patients undergoing cardiac CT for coronary assessment prior to bariatric surgery were prospectively included. Images were analysed for the presence of coronary calcification and for non-obstructive (<50%) or obstructive (>50% stenosis) coronary artery disease (CAD). A median clinical follow-up of 6.1 years in 54 patients was obtained for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs), defined as death, non-fatal myocardial infarction or coronary revascularisation. Weight loss and BMI decrease following bariatric surgery were recorded. The median BMI prior to surgery was 46.9 kg/m 2 . The median percentage of excess BMI loss after surgery was 75%. CT showed coronary calcification in 26 (48%) patients, whereas 28 (52%) patients had no calcification. CCTA revealed normal coronaries in 47 (87%) and non-obstructive CAD in 7 (13%) patients. No obstructive CAD was found. All patients successfully underwent bariatric surgery, and no MACE occurred neither perioperatively nor in the follow-up period. The negative predictive value of CCTA was 100% (95% confidence interval of 90.1-100.0%). In severely obese patients, the absence of obstructive CAD in cardiac CT prior to bariatric surgery with subsequently marked weight reduction has strong long-term prognostic implications for ruling out major adverse cardiac events in the postoperative period.

  5. HTR2A A-1438G/T102C polymorphisms predict negative symptoms performance upon aripiprazole treatment in schizophrenic patients.

    PubMed

    Chen, Shih-Fen; Shen, Yu-Chih; Chen, Chia-Hsiang

    2009-08-01

    Aripiprazole acts as a partial agonist at dopamine D2 and D3 and serotonin 1A receptors and as an antagonist at serotonin 2A receptors (HTR2A). Since aripiprazole acts as an antagonist at HTR2A, genetic variants of HTR2A may be important in explaining variability in response to aripiprazole. This study investigated whether the efficacy of aripiprazole can be predicted by functional HTR2A A-1438G/T102C polymorphisms (rs63311/rs6313) as modified by clinical factors in Han Chinese hospitalized patients with acutely exacerbated schizophrenia. After hospitalization, the patients (n = 128) were given a 4-week course of aripiprazole. Patients were genotyped for HTR2A A-1438G/T102C polymorphisms via the restriction fragment length polymorphism method. Clinical factors such as gender, age, duration of illness, education level, diagnostic subtype, and medication dosage were noted as well. The researchers measured psychopathology biweekly, using the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS). A mixed model regression approach (SAS Proc MIXED) was used to analyze the effects of genetic and clinical factors on PANSS performance after aripiprazole treatment. We found that the GG/CC genotype group of HTR2A A-1438G/T102C polymorphisms predicts poor aripiprazole response specifically for negative symptoms. In addition, the clinical factors, including dosage of aripiprazole, age, duration of illness, and diagnostic subtype, were found to influence PANSS performance after aripiprazole treatment. The data suggest HTR2A A-1438G/T102C polymorphisms may predict negative symptoms performance upon aripiprazole treatment in schizophrenic patients as modified by clinical factors.

  6. Predictive genetic testing for the identification of high-risk groups: a simulation study on the impact of predictive ability

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Genetic risk models could potentially be useful in identifying high-risk groups for the prevention of complex diseases. We investigated the performance of this risk stratification strategy by examining epidemiological parameters that impact the predictive ability of risk models. Methods We assessed sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive value for all possible risk thresholds that can define high-risk groups and investigated how these measures depend on the frequency of disease in the population, the frequency of the high-risk group, and the discriminative accuracy of the risk model, as assessed by the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC). In a simulation study, we modeled genetic risk scores of 50 genes with equal odds ratios and genotype frequencies, and varied the odds ratios and the disease frequency across scenarios. We also performed a simulation of age-related macular degeneration risk prediction based on published odds ratios and frequencies for six genetic risk variants. Results We show that when the frequency of the high-risk group was lower than the disease frequency, positive predictive value increased with the AUC but sensitivity remained low. When the frequency of the high-risk group was higher than the disease frequency, sensitivity was high but positive predictive value remained low. When both frequencies were equal, both positive predictive value and sensitivity increased with increasing AUC, but higher AUC was needed to maximize both measures. Conclusions The performance of risk stratification is strongly determined by the frequency of the high-risk group relative to the frequency of disease in the population. The identification of high-risk groups with appreciable combinations of sensitivity and positive predictive value requires higher AUC. PMID:21797996

  7. Developing Risk Prediction Models for Kidney Injury and Assessing Incremental Value for Novel Biomarkers

    PubMed Central

    Kerr, Kathleen F.; Meisner, Allison; Thiessen-Philbrook, Heather; Coca, Steven G.

    2014-01-01

    The field of nephrology is actively involved in developing biomarkers and improving models for predicting patients’ risks of AKI and CKD and their outcomes. However, some important aspects of evaluating biomarkers and risk models are not widely appreciated, and statistical methods are still evolving. This review describes some of the most important statistical concepts for this area of research and identifies common pitfalls. Particular attention is paid to metrics proposed within the last 5 years for quantifying the incremental predictive value of a new biomarker. PMID:24855282

  8. Sensitivity, Specificity, PPV, and NPV for Predictive Biomarkers.

    PubMed

    Simon, Richard

    2015-08-01

    Molecularly targeted cancer drugs are often developed with companion diagnostics that attempt to identify which patients will have better outcome on the new drug than the control regimen. Such predictive biomarkers are playing an increasingly important role in precision oncology. For diagnostic tests, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive are usually used as performance measures. This paper discusses these indices for predictive biomarkers, provides methods for their calculation with survival or response endpoints, and describes assumptions involved in their use. Published by Oxford University Press 2015. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

  9. Predictive value of the present-on-admission indicator for hospital-acquired venous thromboembolism.

    PubMed

    Khanna, Raman R; Kim, Sharon B; Jenkins, Ian; El-Kareh, Robert; Afsarmanesh, Nasim; Amin, Alpesh; Sand, Heather; Auerbach, Andrew; Chia, Catherine Y; Maynard, Gregory; Romano, Patrick S; White, Richard H

    2015-04-01

    Hospital-acquired venous thromboembolic (HA-VTE) events are an important, preventable cause of morbidity and death, but accurately identifying HA-VTE events requires labor-intensive chart review. Administrative diagnosis codes and their associated "present-on-admission" (POA) indicator might allow automated identification of HA-VTE events, but only if VTE codes are accurately flagged "not present-on-admission" (POA=N). New codes were introduced in 2009 to improve accuracy. We identified all medical patients with at least 1 VTE "other" discharge diagnosis code from 5 academic medical centers over a 24-month period. We then sampled, within each center, patients with VTE codes flagged POA=N or POA=U (insufficient documentation) and POA=Y or POA=W (timing clinically uncertain) and abstracted each chart to clarify VTE timing. All events that were not clearly POA were classified as HA-VTE. We then calculated predictive values of the POA=N/U flags for HA-VTE and the POA=Y/W flags for non-HA-VTE. Among 2070 cases with at least 1 "other" VTE code, we found 339 codes flagged POA=N/U and 1941 flagged POA=Y/W. Among 275 POA=N/U abstracted codes, 75.6% (95% CI, 70.1%-80.6%) were HA-VTE; among 291 POA=Y/W abstracted events, 73.5% (95% CI, 68.0%-78.5%) were non-HA-VTE. Extrapolating from this sample, we estimated that 59% of actual HA-VTE codes were incorrectly flagged POA=Y/W. POA indicator predictive values did not improve after new codes were introduced in 2009. The predictive value of VTE events flagged POA=N/U for HA-VTE was 75%. However, sole reliance on this flag may substantially underestimate the incidence of HA-VTE.

  10. An initial investigation on developing a new method to predict short-term breast cancer risk based on deep learning technology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qiu, Yuchen; Wang, Yunzhi; Yan, Shiju; Tan, Maxine; Cheng, Samuel; Liu, Hong; Zheng, Bin

    2016-03-01

    In order to establish a new personalized breast cancer screening paradigm, it is critically important to accurately predict the short-term risk of a woman having image-detectable cancer after a negative mammographic screening. In this study, we developed and tested a novel short-term risk assessment model based on deep learning method. During the experiment, a number of 270 "prior" negative screening cases was assembled. In the next sequential ("current") screening mammography, 135 cases were positive and 135 cases remained negative. These cases were randomly divided into a training set with 200 cases and a testing set with 70 cases. A deep learning based computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) scheme was then developed for the risk assessment, which consists of two modules: adaptive feature identification module and risk prediction module. The adaptive feature identification module is composed of three pairs of convolution-max-pooling layers, which contains 20, 10, and 5 feature maps respectively. The risk prediction module is implemented by a multiple layer perception (MLP) classifier, which produces a risk score to predict the likelihood of the woman developing short-term mammography-detectable cancer. The result shows that the new CAD-based risk model yielded a positive predictive value of 69.2% and a negative predictive value of 74.2%, with a total prediction accuracy of 71.4%. This study demonstrated that applying a new deep learning technology may have significant potential to develop a new short-term risk predicting scheme with improved performance in detecting early abnormal symptom from the negative mammograms.

  11. The predictive value of 201Tl rest-redistribution and 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose SPECT for wall motion recovery after recent reperfused myocardial infarction.

    PubMed

    González, Patricio; Massardo, Teresa; Coll, Claudia; Humeres, Pamela; Sierralta, Paulina; Jofré, M Josefina; Yovanovich, Jorge; Aramburu, Ivonne; Brugère, Solange; Chamorro, Hernán

    2004-04-01

    201Tl and 18F-FDG are useful for acute myocardial infarction (MI) assessment. The goal of this study was to compare their predictive value for wall motion recovery in the culprit area after a recent reperfused MI using SPECT technique. Forty-one patients (mean age: 56 +/- 12 years) were included, 81% of them male; all were studied within 1-24 days post MI. They underwent angioplasty in 27 cases (12 primary); bypass grafting in 10 cases and successful thrombolysis in 4. SPECT 201Tl injected at rest and redistribution (R-R) and also 18F-FDG, were performed on different days. Processed tomograms were interpreted blinded to clinical or angiographic data. Segmental wall motion assessed with echocardiography at baseline was compared with the 3 month follow up. Sensitivity [Confidence Interval] for 201Tl R-R was 74.6% [60.5-84.5], for FDG it was 82.1% [70.8-90.4]; specificities were 73% [64.3-80.5] and 54.8% [45.6-63.7], respectively. 18F-FDG tended to be more sensitive than 201Tl R-R, but the latter was more specific (p < 0.0004). Both 201Tl RR and 18F-FDG presented high negative predictive value (p: ns). In recent MI, SPECT 201Tl R-R is a valuable and widely available technique for viability detection, with similar sensitivity and significant better specificity than SPECT 18F-FDG.

  12. A Values-Affirmation Intervention Does Not Benefit Negatively Stereotyped Immigrant Students in the Netherlands

    PubMed Central

    de Jong, Elisabeth M.; Jellesma, Francine C.; Koomen, Helma M. Y.; de Jong, Peter F.

    2016-01-01

    Previous research showed that a values-affirmation intervention can help reduce the achievement gap between African American and European American students in the US. In the present study, it was examined if these results would generalize to ethnic minority students in a country outside the US, namely the Netherlands, where there is also an achievement gap between native and ethnic minority students. This type of intervention was tested in two separate studies, the first among first-year pre-vocational students (n = 361, 84% ethnic minority), and the second among sixth grade students (n = 290, 96% ethnic minority). Most minority participants had a Turkish-Dutch or Moroccan-Dutch immigrant background. In the second study, a third condition was added to the original paradigm, in which students elaborated on either their affirmation- or a control exercise with the help of a teaching assistant. We also examined whether values affirmation affected the level of problem behavior of negatively stereotyped ethnic minority youth. Contrary to what was expected, multilevel analyses revealed that the intervention had no effect on the school achievement or the problem behavior of the ethnic minority students. Possible explanations for these findings, mainly related to contextual and cultural differences between the Netherlands and the US, are discussed. PMID:27242604

  13. Predictive value of the korean academy of family medicine in-training examination for certifying examination.

    PubMed

    Cho, Jung-Jin; Kim, Ji-Yong

    2011-09-01

    In-training examination (ITE) is a cognitive examination similar to the written test, but it is different from the Clinical Practice Examination of the Korean Academy of Family Medicine (KAFM) Certification Examination (CE). The objective of this is to estimate the positive predictive value of the KAFM-ITE for identifying residents at risk for poor performance on the three types of KAFM-CE. 372 residents who completed the KAFM-CE in 2011 were included. We compared the mean KAFM-CE scores with ITE experience. We evaluated the correlation and the positive predictive value (PPV) of ITE for the multiple choice question (MCQ) scores of 1st written test & 2nd slide examination, the total clinical practice examination scores, and the total sum of 2nd test. 275 out of 372 residents completed ITE. Those who completed ITE had significantly higher MCQ scores of 1st written test than those who did not. The correlation of ITE scores with 1st written MCQ (0.627) was found to be the highest among the other kinds of CE. The PPV of the ITE score for 1st written MCQ scores was 0.672. The PPV of the ITE score ranged from 0.376 to 0.502. The score of the KAFM ITE has acceptable positive predictive value that could be used as a part of comprehensive evaluation system for residents in cognitive field.

  14. Fatty liver index and hepatic steatosis index for prediction of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in type 1 diabetes.

    PubMed

    Sviklāne, Laura; Olmane, Evija; Dzērve, Zane; Kupčs, Kārlis; Pīrāgs, Valdis; Sokolovska, Jeļizaveta

    2018-01-01

    Little is known about the diagnostic value of hepatic steatosis index (HSI) and fatty liver index (FLI), as well as their link to metabolic syndrome in type 1 diabetes mellitus. We have screened the effectiveness of FLI and HSI in an observational pilot study of 40 patients with type 1 diabetes. FLI and HSI were calculated for 201 patients with type 1 diabetes. Forty patients with FLI/HSI values corresponding to different risk of liver steatosis were invited for liver magnetic resonance study. In-phase/opposed-phase technique of magnetic resonance was used. Accuracy of indices was assessed from the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Twelve (30.0%) patients had liver steatosis. For FLI, sensitivity was 90%; specificity, 74%; positive likelihood ratio, 3.46; negative likelihood ratio, 0.14; positive predictive value, 0.64; and negative predictive value, 0.93. For HSI, sensitivity was 86%; specificity, 66%; positive likelihood ratio, 1.95; negative likelihood ratio, 0.21; positive predictive value, 0.50; and negative predictive value, 0.92. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for FLI was 0.86 (95% confidence interval [0.72; 0.99]); for HSI 0.75 [0.58; 0.91]. Liver fat correlated with liver enzymes, waist circumference, triglycerides, and C-reactive protein. FLI correlated with C-reactive protein, liver enzymes, and blood pressure. HSI correlated with waist circumference and C-reactive protein. FLI ≥ 60 and HSI ≥ 36 were significantly associated with metabolic syndrome and nephropathy. The tested indices, especially FLI, can serve as surrogate markers for liver fat content and metabolic syndrome in type 1 diabetes. © 2017 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  15. Total motile sperm count has a superior predictive value over the WHO 2010 cut-off values for the outcomes of intracytoplasmic sperm injection cycles.

    PubMed

    Borges, E; Setti, A S; Braga, D P A F; Figueira, R C S; Iaconelli, A

    2016-09-01

    The objective of this study was to compare (i) the intracytoplasmic sperm injection outcomes among groups with different total motile sperm count ranges, (ii) the intracytoplasmic sperm injection outcomes between groups with normal and abnormal total motile sperm count, and (iii) the predictive values of WHO 2010 cut-off values and pre-wash total motile sperm count for the intracytoplasmic sperm injection outcomes, in couples with male infertility. This study included data from 518 patients undergoing their first intracytoplasmic sperm injection cycle as a result of male infertility. Couples were divided into five groups according to their total motile sperm count: Group I, total motile sperm count <1 × 10(6) ; group II, total motile sperm count 1-5 × 10(6) ; group III, total motile sperm count 5-10 × 10(6) ; group IV, total motile sperm count 10-20 × 10(6) ; and group V, total motile sperm count >20 × 10(6) (which was considered a normal total motile sperm count value). Then, couples were grouped into an abnormal and normal total motile sperm count group. The groups were compared regarding intracytoplasmic sperm injection outcomes. The predictive values of WHO 2010 cut-off values and total motile sperm count for the intracytoplasmic sperm injection outcomes were also investigated. The fertilization rate was lower in total motile sperm count group I compared to total motile sperm count group V (72.5 ± 17.6 vs. 84.9 ± 14.4, p = 0.011). The normal total motile sperm count group had a higher fertilization rate (84.9 ± 14.4 vs. 81.1 ± 15.8, p = 0.016) and lower miscarriage rate (17.9% vs. 29.5%, p = 0.041) compared to the abnormal total motile sperm count group. The total motile sperm count was the only parameter that demonstrated a predictive value for the formation of high-quality embryos on D2 (OR: 1.18, p = 0.013), formation of high-quality embryos on D3 (OR: 1.12, p = 0.037), formation of blastocysts on D5 (OR: 1.16, p = 0

  16. Prediction of genetic values of quantitative traits in plant breeding using pedigree and molecular markers.

    PubMed

    Crossa, José; Campos, Gustavo de Los; Pérez, Paulino; Gianola, Daniel; Burgueño, Juan; Araus, José Luis; Makumbi, Dan; Singh, Ravi P; Dreisigacker, Susanne; Yan, Jianbing; Arief, Vivi; Banziger, Marianne; Braun, Hans-Joachim

    2010-10-01

    The availability of dense molecular markers has made possible the use of genomic selection (GS) for plant breeding. However, the evaluation of models for GS in real plant populations is very limited. This article evaluates the performance of parametric and semiparametric models for GS using wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and maize (Zea mays) data in which different traits were measured in several environmental conditions. The findings, based on extensive cross-validations, indicate that models including marker information had higher predictive ability than pedigree-based models. In the wheat data set, and relative to a pedigree model, gains in predictive ability due to inclusion of markers ranged from 7.7 to 35.7%. Correlation between observed and predictive values in the maize data set achieved values up to 0.79. Estimates of marker effects were different across environmental conditions, indicating that genotype × environment interaction is an important component of genetic variability. These results indicate that GS in plant breeding can be an effective strategy for selecting among lines whose phenotypes have yet to be observed.

  17. Prognostic and predictive value of TP53 mutations in node-positive breast cancer patients treated with anthracycline- or anthracycline/taxane-based adjuvant therapy: results from the BIG 02-98 phase III trial

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Introduction Pre-clinical data suggest p53-dependent anthracycline-induced apoptosis and p53-independent taxane activity. However, dedicated clinical research has not defined a predictive role for TP53 gene mutations. The aim of the current study was to retrospectively explore the prognosis and predictive values of TP53 somatic mutations in the BIG 02-98 randomized phase III trial in which women with node-positive breast cancer were treated with adjuvant doxorubicin-based chemotherapy with or without docetaxel. Methods The prognostic and predictive values of TP53 were analyzed in tumor samples by gene sequencing within exons 5 to 8. Patients were classified according to p53 protein status predicted from TP53 gene sequence, as wild-type (no TP53 variation or TP53 variations which are predicted not to modify p53 protein sequence) or mutant (p53 nonsynonymous mutations). Mutations were subcategorized according to missense or truncating mutations. Survival analyses were performed using the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test. Cox-regression analysis was used to identify independent predictors of outcome. Results TP53 gene status was determined for 18% (520 of 2887) of the women enrolled in BIG 02-98. TP53 gene variations were found in 17% (90 of 520). Nonsynonymous p53 mutations, found in 16.3% (85 of 520), were associated with older age, ductal morphology, higher grade and hormone-receptor negativity. Of the nonsynonymous mutations, 12.3% (64 of 520) were missense and 3.6% were truncating (19 of 520). Only truncating mutations showed significant independent prognostic value, with an increased recurrence risk compared to patients with non-modified p53 protein (hazard ratio = 3.21, 95% confidence interval = 1.740 to 5.935, P = 0.0002). p53 status had no significant predictive value for response to docetaxel. Conclusions p53 truncating mutations were uncommon but associated with poor prognosis. No significant predictive role for p53 status was detected. Trial

  18. Screening of Obstructive Sleep Apnea during Pregnancy: Differences in Predictive Values of Questionnaires across Trimesters

    PubMed Central

    Tantrakul, Visasiri; Sirijanchune, Piyaporn; Panburana, Panyu; Pengjam, Janejira; Suwansathit, Worakot; Boonsarngsuk, Viboon; Guilleminault, Christian

    2015-01-01

    Study Objectives: Evaluation of Berlin and Stop-Bang questionnaires in detecting obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) across trimesters of pregnancy. Methods: Pregnant women from a high-risk pregnancy clinic were recruited to complete sleep evaluations including Berlin and Stop-Bang questionnaires. Overnight testing with Watch-PAT200 for diagnosis of OSA (cutoff point of apneahypopnea index ≥ 5 events/h) was performed. Results: Seventy-two singleton pregnant women participated in the study. Enrollment consisted of 23, 24, and 25 women during first, second, and third trimesters, respectively. Of 72 pregnancies, 23 patients (31.9%) had OSA. Prevalence of OSA classified by trimesters from first to third was 30.4%, 33.33%, and 32.0%, respectively. Overall predictive values of Berlin and Stop-Bang questionnaires were fair (ROC area under curve, AUC 0.72 for Berlin, p = 0.003; 0.75 for Stop-Bang, p = 0.001). When categorized according to trimesters, predictive values substantially improved in second (AUC: 0.84 for Berlin; 0.78 for Stop-Bang) and third trimesters (AUC: 0.81 for Berlin; 0.75 for Stop-Bang), whereas performances of both questionnaires during first trimester were poorer (AUC: 0.49 for Berlin; 0.71 for Stop-Bang). Multivariate analyses show that pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) in first trimester, snore often in second trimester, and weight gain and pregnancy BMI in third trimester were significantly associated with OSA. Conclusions: In high-risk pregnancy, Berlin and Stop-Bang questionnaires were of limited usefulness in the first trimester. However their predictive values are acceptable as pregnancy progresses, particularly in second trimester. OSA in pregnancy seems to be a dynamic process with different predictors association during each trimester. Citation: Trantrakul V, Sirijanchune P, Panburana P, Pengjam J, Suwansathit W, Boonsarngsuk V, Guilleminault C. Screening of obstructive sleep apnea during pregnancy: differences in predictive values of

  19. A Clinical Score to Predict Appendicitis in Older Male Children.

    PubMed

    Kharbanda, Anupam B; Monuteaux, Michael C; Bachur, Richard G; Dudley, Nanette C; Bajaj, Lalit; Stevenson, Michelle D; Macias, Charles G; Mittal, Manoj K; Bennett, Jonathan E; Sinclair, Kelly; Dayan, Peter S

    2017-04-01

    To develop a clinical score to predict appendicitis among older, male children who present to the emergency department with suspected appendicitis. Patients with suspected appendicitis were prospectively enrolled at 9 pediatric emergency departments. A total of 2625 patients enrolled; a subset of 961 male patients, age 8-18 were analyzed in this secondary analysis. Outcomes were determined using pathology, operative reports, and follow-up calls. Clinical and laboratory predictors with <10% missing data and kappa > 0.4 were entered into a multivariable model. Resultant β-coefficients were used to develop a clinical score. Test performance was assessed by calculating the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and likelihood ratios. The mean age was 12.2 years; 49.9% (480) had appendicitis, 22.3% (107) had perforation, and the negative appendectomy rate was 3%. In patients with and without appendicitis, overall imaging rates were 68.6% (329) and 84.4% (406), respectively. Variables retained in the model included maximum tenderness in the right lower quadrant, pain with walking/coughing or hopping, and the absolute neutrophil count. A score ≥8.1 had a sensitivity of 25% (95% confidence interval [CI], 20%-29%), specificity of 98% (95% CI, 96%-99%), and positive predictive value of 93% (95% CI, 86%-97%) for ruling in appendicitis. We developed an accurate scoring system for predicting appendicitis in older boys. If validated, the score might allow clinicians to manage a proportion of male patients without diagnostic imaging. Copyright © 2016 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Impact of fitting dominance and additive effects on accuracy of genomic prediction of breeding values in layers.

    PubMed

    Heidaritabar, M; Wolc, A; Arango, J; Zeng, J; Settar, P; Fulton, J E; O'Sullivan, N P; Bastiaansen, J W M; Fernando, R L; Garrick, D J; Dekkers, J C M

    2016-10-01

    Most genomic prediction studies fit only additive effects in models to estimate genomic breeding values (GEBV). However, if dominance genetic effects are an important source of variation for complex traits, accounting for them may improve the accuracy of GEBV. We investigated the effect of fitting dominance and additive effects on the accuracy of GEBV for eight egg production and quality traits in a purebred line of brown layers using pedigree or genomic information (42K single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) panel). Phenotypes were corrected for the effect of hatch date. Additive and dominance genetic variances were estimated using genomic-based [genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP)-REML and BayesC] and pedigree-based (PBLUP-REML) methods. Breeding values were predicted using a model that included both additive and dominance effects and a model that included only additive effects. The reference population consisted of approximately 1800 animals hatched between 2004 and 2009, while approximately 300 young animals hatched in 2010 were used for validation. Accuracy of prediction was computed as the correlation between phenotypes and estimated breeding values of the validation animals divided by the square root of the estimate of heritability in the whole population. The proportion of dominance variance to total phenotypic variance ranged from 0.03 to 0.22 with PBLUP-REML across traits, from 0 to 0.03 with GBLUP-REML and from 0.01 to 0.05 with BayesC. Accuracies of GEBV ranged from 0.28 to 0.60 across traits. Inclusion of dominance effects did not improve the accuracy of GEBV, and differences in their accuracies between genomic-based methods were small (0.01-0.05), with GBLUP-REML yielding higher prediction accuracies than BayesC for egg production, egg colour and yolk weight, while BayesC yielded higher accuracies than GBLUP-REML for the other traits. In conclusion, fitting dominance effects did not impact accuracy of genomic prediction of breeding values in