Science.gov

Sample records for nested regional climate

  1. Prediction of future climate change for the Blue Nile, using a nested Regional Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Soliman, E.; Jeuland, M.

    2009-04-01

    Although the Nile River Basin is rich in natural resources, it faces many challenges. Rainfall is highly variable across the region, on both seasonal and inter-annual scales. This variability makes the region vulnerable to droughts and floods. Many development projects involving Nile waters are currently underway, or being studied. These projects will lead to land-use patterns changes and water distribution and availability. It is thus important to assess the effects of a) these projects and b) evolving water resource management and policies, on regional hydrological processes. This paper seeks to establish a basis for evaluation of such impacts within the Blue Nile River sub-basin, using the RegCM3 Regional Climate Model to simulate interactions between the land surface and climatic processes. We first present results from application of this RCM model nested with downscaled outputs obtained from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 transient simulations for the 20th Century. We then investigate changes associated with mid-21st century emissions forcing of the SRES A1B scenario. The results obtained from the climate model are then fed as inputs to the Nile Forecast System (NFS), a hydrologic distributed rainfall runoff model of the Nile Basin, The interaction between climatic and hydrological processes on the land surface has been fully coupled. Rainfall patterns and evaporation rates have been generated using RegCM3, and the resulting runoff and Blue Nile streamflow patterns have been simulated using the NFS. This paper compares the results obtained from the RegCM3 climate model with observational datasets for precipitation and temperature from the Climate Research Unit (UK) and the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center GPCP (USA) for 1985-2000. The validity of the streamflow predictions from the NFS is assessed using historical gauge records. Finally, we present results from modeling of the A1B emissions scenario of the IPCC for the years 2034-2055. Our results indicate that future

  2. Examining Interior Grid Nudging Techniques Using Two-Way Nesting in the WRF Model for Regional Climate Modeling

    EPA Science Inventory

    This study evaluates interior nudging techniques using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for regional climate modeling over the conterminous United States (CONUS) using a two-way nested configuration. NCEP–Department of Energy Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Pro...

  3. Simulations of present and future climates in the western U.S. with four nested regional climate models

    SciTech Connect

    Duffy, P B; Arritt, R W; Coquard, J; Gutowski, W; Han, J; Iorio, J; Kim, J; Leung, L R; Roads, J; Zeledon, E

    2004-06-15

    We analyze simulations of present and future climates in the western U.S. performed with four regional climate models (RCMs) nested within two global ocean-atmosphere climate models. Our primary goal is to assess the range of regional climate responses to increased greenhouse gases in available RCM simulations. The four RCMs used different geographical domains, different increased greenhouse gas scenarios for future-climate simulations, and (in some cases) different lateral boundary conditions. For simulations of the present climate, we compare RCM results to observations and to results of the GCM that provided lateral boundary conditions to the RCM. For future-climate (increased greenhouse gas) simulations, we compare RCM results to each other and to results of the driving GCMs. When results are spatially averaged over the western U.S., we find that the results of each RCM closely follow those of the driving GCM in the same region, in both present and future climates. In present-climate simulations, the RCMs have biases in spatially-averaged simulated precipitation and near-surface temperature that seem to be very close to those of the driving GCMs. In future-climate simulations, the spatially-averaged RCM-projected responses in precipitation and near-surface temperature are also very close to those of the respective driving GCMs. Precipitation responses predicted by the RCMs are in many regions not statistically significant compared to interannual variability. Where the predicted precipitation responses are statistically significant, they are positive. The models agree that near-surface temperatures will increase, but do not agree on the spatial pattern of this increase. The four RCMs produce very different estimates of water content of snow in the present climate, and of the change in this water content in response to increased greenhouse gases.

  4. Regional Air Quality Under Climate Change Using a Nested Global-Regional Modeling System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dawson, J.; Racherla, P.; Lynn, B.; Adams, P.; Pandis, S.

    2006-12-01

    Strong links between climate, particulate matter and ozone make it likely that climate change will have impacts on air quality. This study examines the effects that climate change will have on concentrations of PM2.5 and ozone in the Eastern US. The changes examined are between the present day and the 2050s. This is accomplished by developing the Global-Regional Climate Air Pollution Modeling System (GRE-CAPS). GRE-CAPS couples a general circulation model (GCM) / global chemical transport model (CTM), a regional meteorological model, and a regional chemical transport model. Present and future climates are simulated by the GISS-II' GCM with an embedded gas-phase and aerosol chemistry model. Meteorology generated by the GCM is downscaled to the regional modeling domain using the MM5 regional climate model. The downscaled meteorology is passed to the regional chemical transport model PMCAMx. In addition to the downscaled meteorology, chemical boundary conditions for the regional model are derived from the global model. The coupled model system is evaluated for the present day by comparing model-predicted concentrations of O3 and PM2.5 to measured concentrations during the last decade. This comparison between typical present- day measurements and model predictions is made for three modeled present-day Julys (both PM2.5 and O3) and three modeled Januaries (PM2.5). Future concentrations (using the IPCC A2 scenario) are compared to present-day concentrations. Concentrations in specific sites and statistical distributions of concentrations will be examined.

  5. Projected changes of extreme precipitation over Contiguous United States with Nested regional climate model (NRCM)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, J.

    2013-12-01

    Extreme weather events have already significantly influenced North America. During 2005-2011, the extreme events have increased by 250 %, from four or fewer events occurring in 2005, while 14 events occurring in 2011 (www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/). In addition, extreme rainfall amounts, frequency, and intensity were all expected to increase under greenhouse warming scenarios (Wehner 2005; Kharin et al. 2007; Tebaldi et al. 2006). Global models are powerful tools to investigate the climate and climate change on large scales. However, such models do not represent local terrain and mesoscale weather systems well owing to their coarse horizontal resolution (150-300 km). To capture the fine-scale features of extreme weather events, regional climate models (RCMs) with a more realistic representation of the complex terrain and heterogeneous land surfaces are needed (Mass et al. 2002). This study uses the Nested Regional Climate model (NRCM) to perform regional scale climate simulations on a 12-km × 12-km high resolution scale over North America (including Alaska; with 600 × 515 grid cells at longitude and latitude), known as CORDEX_North America, instead of small regions as studied previously (eg., Dominguez et al. 2012; Gao et al. 2012). The performance and the biases of the NRCM extreme precipitation calculations (2000-2010) have been evaluated with PRISM precipitation (Daly et al. 1997) by Wang and Kotamarthi (2013): the NRCM replicated very well the monthly amount of extreme precipitation with less than 3% overestimation over East CONUS, and the frequency of extremes over West CONUS and upper Mississippi River Basin. The Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and RCP 4.5 from the new Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM v1.0) are dynamically downscaled to predict the extreme rainfall events at the end-of-century (2085-2095) and to explore the uncertainties of future extreme precipitation induced by different scenarios over distinct regions. We have

  6. Two-way against one-way nesting for climate downscaling in Europe and the Mediterranean region using LMDZ4

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Shan; Li, Laurent; Le Treut, Hervé

    2016-04-01

    In the 21st century, the estimated surface temperature warming projected by General Circulation Models (GCMs) is between 0.3 and 4.8 °C, depending on the scenario considered. GCMs exhibit a good representation of climate on a global scale, but they are not able to reproduce regional climate processes with the same level of accuracy. Society and policymakers need model projections to define climate change adaptation and mitigation policies on a global, regional and local scale. Climate downscaling is mostly conducted with a regional model nested into the outputs of a global model. This one-way nesting approach is generally used in the climate community without feedbacks from Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to GCMs. This lack of interaction between the two models may affect regional modes of variability, in particular those with a boundary conflict. The objective of this study is to evaluate a two-way nesting configuration that makes an interactive coupling between the RCM and the GCM, an approach against the traditional configuration of one-way nesting system. An additional aim of this work is to examine if the two-way nesting system can improve the RCM performance. The atmospheric component of the IPSL integrated climate model (LMDZ) is configured at both regional (LMDZ-regional) and global (LMDZ-global) scales. The two models have the same configuration for the dynamical framework and the physical forcings. The climatology values of sea surface temperature (SST) are prescribed for the two models. The stretched-grid of LMDZ-global is applied to a region defined by Europe, the Mediterranean, North Africa and Western North Atlantic. To ensure a good statistical significance of results, all simulations last at least 80 years. The nesting process of models is performed by a relaxation procedure of a time scale of 90 minutes. In the case of two-way nesting, the exchange between the two models is every two hours. The relaxation procedure induces a boundary conflict

  7. Considerations on domain location according to the jump of resolution between the driving data and the nested regional climate model within the Big-Brother experiment.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matte, D.; Laprise, R.; Theriault, J. M.; Lucas-Picher, P.

    2015-12-01

    Many studies have shown the importance of choosing the domain size adequately for dynamical downscaling with nested regional climate models. It is well known that domain should not be too large to avoid large departure from the driving data, and not be too small to provide sufficient distance from the lateral inflow to allow a full development of the small-scale features resolved by the increase resolution. Although practitioners of dynamical downscaling are well aware that the jump of resolution between the driving data and the nested regional climate model impacts the simulated climate, the issue has never been properly study. Larger is the jump of resolution, larger is the distance from the lateral inflow to fully develop the small-scale features permitted by the increase resolution. Our investigation compares direct nesting to achieve a grid mesh of 0.15o from driving data at 3.6°, 1.8o, 0.45° and 0.15° using the perfect-prognostic approach of the Big-Brother protocol. The results show that the small-scale transient-eddy component struggles to be fully developed with reduced resolution of the driving data. Overall, this study suggests that domain location (i.e. domain of interest or subsequent nested domains) must be chosen carefully according to the jump of resolution to allow the optimal development of small-scale features allowed by the increase resolution of the nested model.

  8. Nested-model approach to investigate climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hay, Lauren E.; Leavesley, George H.

    1994-01-01

    Determination of the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation in mountainous regions is critical for assessing the effects of climate variability on water resources in these regions. Potential effects of climate change on water resources in the Gunnison River basin of southwestern Colorado currently are being studied using a nested-model approach to disaggregate large-scale general circulation model output to account for smaller-scale processes. This paper presents a disaggregation technique in which scenarios of possible climate change will be developed by nesting a global general circulation model, a mesoscale climate model, a local orographic precipitation model, and a watershed model.

  9. Long-Term Climate Forcing in Loggerhead Sea Turtle Nesting

    PubMed Central

    Van Houtan, Kyle S.; Halley, John M.

    2011-01-01

    The long-term variability of marine turtle populations remains poorly understood, limiting science and management. Here we use basin-scale climate indices and regional surface temperatures to estimate loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) nesting at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Borrowing from fisheries research, our models investigate how oceanographic processes influence juvenile recruitment and regulate population dynamics. This novel approach finds local populations in the North Pacific and Northwest Atlantic are regionally synchronized and strongly correlated to ocean conditions—such that climate models alone explain up to 88% of the observed changes over the past several decades. In addition to its performance, climate-based modeling also provides mechanistic forecasts of historical and future population changes. Hindcasts in both regions indicate climatic conditions may have been a factor in recent declines, but future forecasts are mixed. Available climatic data suggests the Pacific population will be significantly reduced by 2040, but indicates the Atlantic population may increase substantially. These results do not exonerate anthropogenic impacts, but highlight the significance of bottom-up oceanographic processes to marine organisms. Future studies should consider environmental baselines in assessments of marine turtle population variability and persistence. PMID:21589639

  10. Long-term climate forcing in loggerhead sea turtle nesting.

    PubMed

    Van Houtan, Kyle S; Halley, John M

    2011-01-01

    The long-term variability of marine turtle populations remains poorly understood, limiting science and management. Here we use basin-scale climate indices and regional surface temperatures to estimate loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) nesting at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Borrowing from fisheries research, our models investigate how oceanographic processes influence juvenile recruitment and regulate population dynamics. This novel approach finds local populations in the North Pacific and Northwest Atlantic are regionally synchronized and strongly correlated to ocean conditions--such that climate models alone explain up to 88% of the observed changes over the past several decades. In addition to its performance, climate-based modeling also provides mechanistic forecasts of historical and future population changes. Hindcasts in both regions indicate climatic conditions may have been a factor in recent declines, but future forecasts are mixed. Available climatic data suggests the Pacific population will be significantly reduced by 2040, but indicates the Atlantic population may increase substantially. These results do not exonerate anthropogenic impacts, but highlight the significance of bottom-up oceanographic processes to marine organisms. Future studies should consider environmental baselines in assessments of marine turtle population variability and persistence. PMID:21589639

  11. Potential Influences of Climate and Nest Structure on Spotted Owl Reproductive Success: A Biophysical Approach

    PubMed Central

    Rockweit, Jeremy T.; Franklin, Alan B.; Bakken, George S.; Gutiérrez, R. J.

    2012-01-01

    Many bird species do not make their own nests; therefore, selection of existing sites that provide adequate microclimates is critical. This is particularly true for owls in north temperate climates that often nest early in the year when inclement weather is common. Spotted owls use three main types of nest structures, each of which are structurally distinct and may provide varying levels of protection to the eggs or young. We tested the hypothesis that spotted owl nest configuration influences nest microclimate using both experimental and observational data. We used a wind tunnel to estimate the convective heat transfer coefficient (hc) of eggs in 25 potential nest configurations that mimicked 2 nest types (top-cavity and platform nests), at 3 different wind speeds. We then used the estimates of hc in a biophysical heat transfer model to estimate how long it would take unattended eggs to cool from incubation temperature (∼36°C) to physiological zero temperature (PZT; ∼26°C) under natural environmental conditions. Our results indicated that the structural configuration of nests influences the cooling time of the eggs inside those nests, and hence, influences the nest microclimate. Estimates of time to PZT ranged from 10.6 minutes to 33.3 minutes. Nest configurations that were most similar to platform nests always had the fastest egg cooling times, suggesting that platform nests were the least protective of those nests we tested. Our field data coupled with our experimental results suggested that nest choice is important for the reproductive success of owls during years of inclement weather or in regions characterized by inclement weather during the nesting season. PMID:22859993

  12. Climate change simulations of Tasmanian precipitation using multiple nesting

    SciTech Connect

    Mcgregor, J.L.; Walsh, K.

    1994-10-01

    The present-day precipitation climatology of Tasmania, Australia, has been simulated for January and July using a limited area model with multiple nesting down to a resolution of 60 km. The results are superior to simulations at lower resolutions, although the high-resolution model produces excessive precipitation in regions of steep orography. A preliminary precipitation climatology is constructed for 2 x CO2 conditions from the results of the simulations for January and July. In the simulations, climate change causes precipitation to decrease over Tasmania during January, while it is increased during July. Examination of daily precipitation frequency indicates that precipitation events in January becomes less intense, but those in July become more intense. The changes in precipitation are related to modifications to the low-level synoptic fields. Some strengthening of low-level winds as a result of climate change is also noted for July.

  13. Regional Model Nesting Within GFS Daily Forecasts Over West Africa

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew; Lonergan, Patrick; Worrell, Ruben

    2010-01-01

    The study uses the RM3, the regional climate model at the Center for Climate Systems Research of Columbia University and the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (CCSR/GISS). The paper evaluates 30 48-hour RM3 weather forecasts over West Africa during September 2006 made on a 0.5 grid nested within 1 Global Forecast System (GFS) global forecasts. September 2006 was the Special Observing Period #3 of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA). Archived GFS initial conditions and lateral boundary conditions for the simulations from the US National Weather Service, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration were interpolated four times daily. Results for precipitation forecasts are validated against Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite estimates and data from the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS), which includes rain gauge measurements, and forecasts of circulation are compared to reanalysis 2. Performance statistics for the precipitation forecasts include bias, root-mean-square errors and spatial correlation coefficients. The nested regional model forecasts are compared to GFS forecasts to gauge whether nesting provides additional realistic information. They are also compared to RM3 simulations driven by reanalysis 2, representing high potential skill forecasts, to gauge the sensitivity of results to lateral boundary conditions. Nested RM3/GFS forecasts generate excessive moisture advection toward West Africa, which in turn causes prodigious amounts of model precipitation. This problem is corrected by empirical adjustments in the preparation of lateral boundary conditions and initial conditions. The resulting modified simulations improve on the GFS precipitation forecasts, achieving time-space correlations with TRMM of 0.77 on the first day and 0.63 on the second day. One realtime RM3/GFS precipitation forecast made at and posted by the African Centre of Meteorological Application for Development (ACMAD) in Niamey, Niger

  14. Duck nest success in the prairie pothole region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Klett, A.T.; Shaffer, T.L.; Johnson, D.H.

    1988-01-01

    We estimated nest success of mallard (Anas platyrhynchos), gadwall (A. strepera), blue-winged teal (A. discors), northern shoveler (A. clypeata), and northern pintail (A. acuta) for 5 regions in North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota, for 1-3 periods between 1966 and 1984, and for 8 habitat classes. We obtained composite estimates of nest success for regions and periods by weighting each habitat proportional to the number of nest initiations. The distribution of nest initiations was derived from estimates of breeding populations, preferences of species for nesting habitats, and availability of habitats. Nest success rates ranged from <5 to 36% among regions, periods, and species. Rates were lowest in western Minnesota (MNW) and eastern North Dakota (NDE), intermediate in central North Dakota (NDC) and eastern South Dakota (SDE), and highest in central South Dakota (SDC). In regions with comparable data, no consistent trend in nest success was apparent from early to late periods. Gadwalls and blue-winged teal nested more successfully than mallards and pintails; the relative success of shovelers varied regionally. Ducks nesting in idle grassland were the most successful and those nesting in cropland were least successful. Mammalian predation was the major cause of nesting failure (54-85%) in all habitats, but farming operations resulted in 37 and 27% of the nesting failures in cropland and hayland, respectively. Most of the populations studied were not self-sustaining.

  15. The influence of regional hydrology on nesting behavior and nest fate of the American alligator

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ugarte, Cristina A.; Bass, Oron L.; Nuttle, William; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Rice, Kenneth G.; Fujisaki, Ikuko; Whelan, Kevin R.T.

    2013-01-01

    Hydrologic conditions are critical to the nesting behavior and reproductive success of crocodilians. In South Florida, USA, growing human settlement has led to extensive surface water management and modification of historical water flows in the wetlands, which have affected regional nesting of the American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis). Although both natural and anthropogenic factors are considered to determine hydrologic conditions, the aspects of hydrological patterns that affect alligator nest effort, flooding (partial and complete), and failure (no hatchling) are unclear. We deconstructed annual hydrological patterns using harmonic models that estimated hydrological matrices including mean, amplitude, timing of peak, and periodicity of surface water depth and discharge and examined their effects on alligator nesting using survey data from Shark Slough, Everglades National Park, from 1985 to 2005. Nest effort increased in years with higher mean and lesser periodicity of water depth. A greater proportion of nests were flooded and failed when peak discharge occurred earlier in the year. Also, nest flooding rates were greater in years with greater periodicity of water depth, and nest failure rate was greater when mean discharge was higher. This study guides future water management decisions to mitigate negative impacts on reproduction of alligators and provides wildlife managers with a tool for assessing and modifying annual water management plans to conserve crocodilians and other wetland species.

  16. Nesting Phenology of Marine Turtles: Insights from a Regional Comparative Analysis on Green Turtle (Chelonia mydas)

    PubMed Central

    Dalleau, Mayeul; Ciccione, Stéphane; Mortimer, Jeanne A.; Garnier, Julie; Benhamou, Simon; Bourjea, Jérôme

    2012-01-01

    Changes in phenology, the timing of seasonal activities, are among the most frequently observed responses to environmental disturbances and in marine species are known to occur in response to climate changes that directly affects ocean temperature, biogeochemical composition and sea level. We examined nesting seasonality data from long-term studies at 8 green turtle (Chelonia mydas) rookeries that include 21 specific nesting sites in the South-West Indian Ocean (SWIO). We demonstrated that temperature drives patterns of nesting seasonality at the regional scale. We found a significant correlation between mean annual Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and dates of peak nesting with rookeries exposed to higher SST having a delayed nesting peak. This supports the hypothesis that temperature is the main factor determining peak nesting dates. We also demonstrated a spatial synchrony in nesting activity amongst multiple rookeries in the northern part of the SWIO (Aldabra, Glorieuses, Mohéli, Mayotte) but not with the eastern and southern rookeries (Europa, Tromelin), differences which could be attributed to females with sharply different adult foraging conditions. However, we did not detect a temporal trend in the nesting peak date over the study period or an inter-annual relation between nesting peak date and SST. The findings of our study provide a better understanding of the processes that drive marine species phenology. The findings will also help to predict their ability to cope with climate change and other environmental perturbations. Despite demonstrating this spatial shift in nesting phenology, no trend in the alteration of nesting dates over more than 20 years was found. PMID:23056527

  17. Regional warming and the thermal regimes of American crocodile nests in the Tempisque Basin, Costa Rica.

    PubMed

    Murray, Christopher M; Easter, Michael; Padilla, Sergio; Marin, Mahmood Sasa; Guyer, Craig

    2016-08-01

    Spatial variation in global climate change makes population-specific responses to this enigmatic threat pertinent on a regional scale. Organisms with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) potentially possess a unique physiological susceptibility that threatens population viability if rapid environmental effects on sex ratios render populations non-viable. A heavily male-biased sex ratio for hatchling American crocodiles of the Tempisque Basin, Costa Rica requires assessment of how nest temperature affects sex determination at this site, how females might compensate for these effects when creating nests, and how current patterns of climate change might alter future sex ratios and survival in hatchling cohorts. We demonstrate high within-nest variation in temperature but predict a female bias at hatching based on nest temperatures quantified here. Further, our data suggest that egg size and metabolic heating associated with this factor outweighs microhabitat parameters and depth in influencing nest thermal regimes. Finally, we document regional warming in the Tempisque Basin over the last 15 years and project that further heating over the next 15 years will not yield hatchling sex ratios as male biased as those currently found at this site. Thus, we find no support for nest temperature or climate change as likely explanations for male-biased American crocodile (Crocodylus acutus) sex ratios in the Tempisque Basin. PMID:27503716

  18. Regional Climate Modeling: Progress, Challenges, and Prospects

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Yuqing; Leung, Lai R.; McGregor, John L.; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Wang, Wei-Chyung; Ding, Yihui; Kimura, Fujio

    2004-12-01

    Regional climate modeling with regional climate models (RCMs) has matured over the past decade and allows for meaningful utilization in a broad spectrum of applications. In this paper, latest progresses in regional climate modeling studies are reviewed, including RCM development, applications of RCMs to dynamical downscaling for climate change assessment, seasonal climate predictions and climate process studies, and the study of regional climate predictability. Challenges and potential directions of future research in this important area are discussed, with the focus on those to which less attention has been given previously, such as the importance of ensemble simulations, further development and improvement of regional climate modeling approach, modeling extreme climate events and sub-daily variation of clouds and precipitation, model evaluation and diagnostics, applications of RCMs to climate process studies and seasonal predictions, and development of regional earth system models. It is believed that with both the demonstrated credibility of RCMs’ capability in reproducing not only monthly to seasonal mean climate and interannual variability but also the extreme climate events when driven by good quality reanalysis and the continuous improvements in the skill of global general circulation models (GCMs) in simulating large-scale atmospheric circulation, regional climate modeling will remain an important dynamical downscaling tool for providing the needed information for assessing climate change impacts and seasonal climate predictions, and a powerful tool for improving our understanding of regional climate processes. An internationally coordinated effort can be developed with different focuses by different groups to advance regional climate modeling studies. It is also recognized that since the final quality of the results from nested RCMs depends in part on the realism of the large-scale forcing provided by GCMs, the reduction of errors and improvement in

  19. Tropical cyclone activity in nested regional and global grid-refined simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hashimoto, Atsushi; Done, James M.; Fowler, Laura D.; Bruyère, Cindy L.

    2016-07-01

    The capacity of two different grid refinement methods—two-way limited area nesting and variable-mesh refinement—to capture Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone (TC) activity is compared in a suite of single-year continuous simulations. Simulations are conducted with and without regional grid refinement from approximately 100-20 km grid spacing over the Northwest Pacific. The capacity to capture smooth transitions between the two resolutions varies by grid refinement method. Nesting shows adverse influence of the nest boundary, with the boundary evident in seasonal average cloud patterns and precipitation, and contortions of the seasonal mean mid-latitude jet. Variable-mesh, on the other hand, reduces many of these effects and produced smoother cloud patterns and mid-latitude jet structure. Both refinement methods lead to increased TC frequency in the region of refinement compared to simulations without grid refinement, although nesting adversely affects TC tracks through the contorted mid-latitude jet. The variable-mesh approach leads to enhanced TC activity over the Southern Indian and Southwest Pacific basins, compared to a uniform mesh simulation. Nesting, on the other hand, does not appear to influence basins outside the region of grid refinement. This study provides evidence that variable mesh may bring benefits to seasonal TC simulation over traditional nesting, and demonstrates capacity of variable mesh refinement for regional climate simulation.

  20. Climatic Concepts and Regions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thomas, Paul F.

    Designed for students in grades 7 through 12, this teaching unit presents illustrative resource materials depicting concepts related to climate and geographic regions. Emphasis is on giving students an understanding of climatic elements and factors, not as isolated, disjointed entities, but as a dynamic interplay of forces having a very definite…

  1. Numerical Weather Prediction Over Caucasus Region With Nested Grid Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davitashvili, Dr.; Kutaladze, Dr.; Kvatadze, Dr.

    2010-09-01

    territory of Georgia. Both use the default 31 vertical levels. We have studied the effect of thermal and advective-dynamic factors of atmosphere on the changes of the West Georgian climate. We have shown that non-proportional warming of the Black Sea and Colkhi lowland provokes the intensive strengthening of circulation. Some results of calculations of the interaction of airflow with complex orography of Caucasus with horizontal grid-point resolutions of 15 and 5 km are presented. Also with the purpose of study behavior of nested grid method above complex terrain we have elaborated in sigma coordinate system short term prediction regional numerical model for Caucasus region. The results of computation carried out with one directional, two directional and new combined methods are given.

  2. A Hierarchical Evaluation of Regional Climate Simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Ringler, Todd; Collins, William D.; Taylor, Mark; Ashfaq, Moetasim

    2013-08-20

    Global climate models (GCMs) are the primary tools for predicting the evolution of the climate system. Through decades of development, GCMs have demonstrated useful skill in simulating climate at continental to global scales. However, large uncertainties remain in projecting climate change at regional scales, which limit our ability to inform decisions on climate change adaptation and mitigation. To bridge this gap, different modeling approaches including nested regional climate models (RCMs), global stretch-grid models, and global high-resolution atmospheric models have been used to provide regional climate simulations (Leung et al. 2003). In previous efforts to evaluate these approaches, isolating their relative merits was not possible because factors such as dynamical frameworks, physics parameterizations, and model resolutions were not systematically constrained. With advances in high performance computing, it is now feasible to run coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs at horizontal resolution comparable to what RCMs use today. Global models with local refinement using unstructured grids have become available for modeling regional climate (e.g., Rauscher et al. 2012; Ringler et al. 2013). While they offer opportunities to improve climate simulations, significant efforts are needed to test their veracity for regional-scale climate simulations.

  3. Northwest Regional Climate Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lipschultz, Fred

    2011-01-01

    Objectives are to establish a continuing, inclusive National process that: 1) synthesizes relevant science and information 2) increases understanding of what is known & not known 3) identifies information needs related to preparing for climate variability and change, and reducing climate impacts and vulnerability 4) evaluates progress of adaptation & mitigation activities 5) informs science priorities 6) builds assessment capacity in regions and sectors 7) builds understanding & skilled use of findings

  4. A nested model study of the Sahelian climate response to sea-surface temperature anomalies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Semazzi, Fredrick H. M.; Lin, Neng-Huei; Lin, Yuh-Lang; Giorgi, Filippo

    1993-12-01

    A nested high resolution atmospheric model is used to investigate the sensitivity of the Sahelian climate to large-scale sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The nested system has realistic vegetation and detailed bottom orography. Two separate sets of northern hemispheric summer (June, July and August) numerical integrations are performed; one corresponding to the SST anomalies in 1950 when the Sahelian region was relatively much wetter than the long-term average conditions and a second integration based on 1984 SST anomalies when one of the driest rain seasons in the last few decades was experienced. Although the low resolution (R15 ≈ 4.5° by 7.5° latitude by longitude) stand-alone global climate model reasonably simulates the lower rainfall amounts in 1984 compared to 1950, the nested system yields more realistic regional climate because its forcing includes more detailed effects of topography, land-sea contrasts, and land surface processes. In particular, two distinct rainfall maxima primarily anchored to the regions of highest terrain are simulated by the model. One corresponding to the highlands in Cameroon over the Adamawa Plateau and a second maxima over Guinea and Sierra-Leone. Inspection of model circulation indicates that the weaker moist cross-equatorial monsoon flow in the 1984 is responsible for the lower amounts of the Sahelian rainfall compared to 1950. Our results are in agreement with several diagnostic and modeling studies performed in the recent years which show that deficient sub-Saharan rainy seasons tends to coincide with the southwesterly surface monsoon flow not extending as far north along the West African coast as in the wetter years (Lamb and Peppier, 1990, and others).

  5. Techniques for studying nest success of ducks in upland habitats in the prairie pothole region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Klett, A.T.; Duebbert, H.F.; Faanes, C.A.; Higgins, K.F.

    1986-01-01

    Selected procedures are described for conducting nesting studies of upland nesting ducks in the prairie pothole region. Emphasis is on the use of standard procedures so that comparable results can be obtained. Major topics addressed are finding nests by flushing hens with drags pulled by vehicles, recording of appropriate data, and calculating nest success rates. Techniques are described for conducting nest searches, candling eggs in the field, determining fate of clutches, and identifying species from evidence at nests. Two methods are presented for calculating nest success.

  6. Procedures for offline grid nesting in regional ocean models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mason, Evan; Molemaker, Jeroen; Shchepetkin, Alexander F.; Colas, Francois; McWilliams, James C.; Sangrà, Pablo

    One-way offline nesting of a primitive-equation regional ocean numerical model (ROMS) is investigated, with special attention to the boundary forcing file creation process. The model has a modified open boundary condition which minimises false wave reflections, and is optimised to utilise high-frequency boundary updates. The model configuration features a previously computed solution which supplies boundary forcing data to an interior domain with an increased grid resolution. At the open boundaries of the interior grid (the child) the topography is matched to that of the outer grid (the parent), over a narrow transition region. A correction is applied to the normal baroclinic and barotropic velocities at the open boundaries of the child to ensure volume conservation. It is shown that these steps, together with a carefully constructed interpolation of the parent data, lead to a high-quality child solution, with minimal artifacts such as persistent rim currents and wave reflections at the boundaries. Sensitivity experiments provide information about the robustness of the model open boundary condition to perturbations in the surface wind stress forcing field, to the perturbation of the volume conservation enforcement in the boundary forcing, and to perturbation of the vertical density structure in the boundary forcing. This knowledge is important when extending the nesting technique to include external data from alien sources, such as ocean models with physics and/or numerics different from ROMS, or from observed climatologies of temperature, salinity and sea level.

  7. Do regional climate models represent regional climate?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maraun, Douglas; Widmann, Martin

    2014-05-01

    When using climate change scenarios - either from global climate models or further downscaled - to assess localised real world impacts, one has to ensure that the local simulation indeed correctly represents the real world local climate. Representativeness has so far mainly been discussed as a scale issue: simulated meteorological variables in general represent grid box averages, whereas real weather is often expressed by means of point values. As a result, in particular simulated extreme values are not directly comparable with observed local extreme values. Here we argue that the issue of representativeness is more general. To illustrate this point, assume the following situations: first, the (GCM or RCM) simulated large scale weather, e.g., the mid-latitude storm track, might be systematically distorted compared to observed weather. If such a distortion at the synoptic scale is strong, the simulated local climate might be completely different from the observed. Second, the orography even of high resolution RCMs is only a coarse model of true orography. In particular in mountain ranges the simulated mesoscale flow might therefore considerably deviate from the observed flow, leading to systematically displaced local weather. In both cases, the simulated local climate does not represent observed local climate. Thus, representativeness also encompasses representing a particular location. We propose to measure this aspect of representativeness for RCMs driven with perfect boundary conditions as the correlation between observations and simulations at the inter-annual scale. In doing so, random variability generated by the RCMs is largely averaged out. As an example, we assess how well KNMIs RACMO2 RCM at 25km horizontal resolution represents winter precipitation in the gridded E-OBS data set over the European domain. At a chosen grid box, RCM precipitation might not be representative of observed precipitation, in particular in the rain shadow of major moutain ranges

  8. Large increase in nest size linked to climate change: an indicator of life history, senescence and condition.

    PubMed

    Møller, Anders Pape; Nielsen, Jan Tøttrup

    2015-11-01

    Many animals build extravagant nests that exceed the size required for successful reproduction. Large nests may signal the parenting ability of nest builders suggesting that nests may have a signaling function. In particular, many raptors build very large nests for their body size. We studied nest size in the goshawk Accipiter gentilis, which is a top predator throughout most of the Nearctic. Both males and females build nests, and males provision their females and offspring with food. Nest volume in the goshawk is almost three-fold larger than predicted from their body size. Nest size in the goshawk is highly variable and may reach more than 600 kg for a bird that weighs ca. 1 kg. While 8.5% of nests fell down, smaller nests fell down more often than large nests. There was a hump-shaped relationship between nest volume and female age, with a decline in nest volume late in life, as expected for senescence. Clutch size increased with nest volume. Nest volume increased during 1977-2014 in an accelerating fashion, linked to increasing spring temperature during April, when goshawks build and start reproduction. These findings are consistent with nest size being a reliable signal of parental ability, with large nest size signaling superior parenting ability and senescence, and also indicating climate warming. PMID:26154876

  9. Prediction of future climate change for the Blue Nile, using RCM nested in GCM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sayed, E.; Jeuland, M.; Aty, M.

    2009-04-01

    Although the Nile River Basin is rich in natural resources, it faces many challenges. Rainfall is highly variable across the region, on both seasonal and inter-annual scales. This variability makes the region vulnerable to droughts and floods. Many development projects involving Nile waters are currently underway, or being studied. These projects will lead to land-use patterns changes and water distribution and availability. It is thus important to assess the effects of a) these projects and b) evolving water resource management and policies, on regional hydrological processes. This paper seeks to establish a basis for evaluation of such impacts within the Blue Nile River sub-basin, using the RegCM3 Regional Climate Model to simulate interactions between the land surface and climatic processes. We first present results from application of this RCM model nested with downscaled outputs obtained from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 transient simulations for the 20th Century. We then investigate changes associated with mid-21st century emissions forcing of the SRES A1B scenario. The results obtained from the climate model are then fed as inputs to the Nile Forecast System (NFS), a hydrologic distributed rainfall runoff model of the Nile Basin, The interaction between climatic and hydrological processes on the land surface has been fully coupled. Rainfall patterns and evaporation rates have been generated using RegCM3, and the resulting runoff and Blue Nile streamflow patterns have been simulated using the NFS. This paper compares the results obtained from the RegCM3 climate model with observational datasets for precipitation and temperature from the Climate Research Unit (UK) and the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center GPCP (USA) for 1985-2000. The validity of the streamflow predictions from the NFS is assessed using historical gauge records. Finally, we present results from modeling of the A1B emissions scenario of the IPCC for the years 2034-2055. Our results indicate that future

  10. Simulating Regional Climate Change in New Hampshire

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Komurcu, M.; Acosta, R. P.; Huber, M.

    2014-12-01

    Dynamical downscaling of Global Climate Model (GCM) simulated future projections using smaller scale, higher resolution models is widely used to assess the regional impacts of climate change on weather, ecosystems and economy. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to dynamically downscale Community Earth System Model (CESM) future projections using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 to simulate the possible effects of climate change in New Hampshire (NH). The first step to ensure that the downscaled model output is representative of the NH region is to find the correct WRF model set up for the region. This task is accomplished using CESM simulations of the historical period as forcing for WRF simulations and performing multiple sensitivity tests with different options for WRF physics parameterizations such as boundary layer, cloud microphysics and convection parameterizations. Simulated precipitation, temperature and other variables are compared with observations to obtain the more suitable model setup for NH. WRF simulations are performed on nested grids with 36, 12 and 4 km grid spacing, and the smallest grid sized nest is focused over NH. Furthermore, to prevent the drift of regional model from global model simulated climatology, WRF is reinitialized from GCM output every five days. Previous studies have shown that future regional climate model predictions of precipitation and snow water equivalent depend on the re-initialization interval of WRF from GCM forcing specifically over the western U.S, where topography is high. This problem is mainly because re-initialization erases the simulated memory for certain variables such as soil moisture. To evaluate whether re-initialization time-scale is also important in the Eastern US, in this study, the effects of 5-daily versus monthly re-initialization of WRF using CESM output on model simulated precipitation are also investigated. The obtained WRF model setup is

  11. Historical versus contemporary climate forcing on the annual nesting variability of loggerhead sea turtles in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean.

    PubMed

    Arendt, Michael D; Schwenter, Jeffrey A; Witherington, Blair E; Meylan, Anne B; Saba, Vincent S

    2013-01-01

    A recent analysis suggested that historical climate forcing on the oceanic habitat of neonate sea turtles explained two-thirds of interannual variability in contemporary loggerhead (Caretta caretta) sea turtle nest counts in Florida, where nearly 90% of all nesting by this species in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean occurs. Here, we show that associations between annual nest counts and climate conditions decades prior to nest counts and those conditions one year prior to nest counts were not significantly different. Examination of annual nest count and climate data revealed that statistical artifacts influenced the reported 31-year lag association with nest counts. The projected importance of age 31 neophytes to annual nest counts between 2020 and 2043 was modeled using observed nest counts between 1989 and 2012. Assuming consistent survival rates among cohorts for a 5% population growth trajectory and that one third of the mature female population nests annually, the 41% decline in annual nest counts observed during 1998-2007 was not projected for 2029-2038. This finding suggests that annual nest count trends are more influenced by remigrants than neophytes. Projections under the 5% population growth scenario also suggest that the Peninsular Recovery Unit could attain the demographic recovery criteria of 106,100 annual nests by 2027 if nest counts in 2019 are at least comparable to 2012. Because the first year of life represents only 4% of the time elapsed through age 31, cumulative survival at sea across decades explains most cohort variability, and thus, remigrant population size. Pursuant to the U.S. Endangered Species Act, staggered implementation of protection measures for all loggerhead life stages has taken place since the 1970s. We suggest that the 1998-2007 nesting decline represented a lagged perturbation response to historical anthropogenic impacts, and that subsequent nest count increases since 2008 reflect a potential recovery response. PMID:24339901

  12. Historical versus Contemporary Climate Forcing on the Annual Nesting Variability of Loggerhead Sea Turtles in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean

    PubMed Central

    Arendt, Michael D.; Schwenter, Jeffrey A.; Witherington, Blair E.; Meylan, Anne B.; Saba, Vincent S.

    2013-01-01

    A recent analysis suggested that historical climate forcing on the oceanic habitat of neonate sea turtles explained two-thirds of interannual variability in contemporary loggerhead (Caretta caretta) sea turtle nest counts in Florida, where nearly 90% of all nesting by this species in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean occurs. Here, we show that associations between annual nest counts and climate conditions decades prior to nest counts and those conditions one year prior to nest counts were not significantly different. Examination of annual nest count and climate data revealed that statistical artifacts influenced the reported 31-year lag association with nest counts. The projected importance of age 31 neophytes to annual nest counts between 2020 and 2043 was modeled using observed nest counts between 1989 and 2012. Assuming consistent survival rates among cohorts for a 5% population growth trajectory and that one third of the mature female population nests annually, the 41% decline in annual nest counts observed during 1998–2007 was not projected for 2029–2038. This finding suggests that annual nest count trends are more influenced by remigrants than neophytes. Projections under the 5% population growth scenario also suggest that the Peninsular Recovery Unit could attain the demographic recovery criteria of 106,100 annual nests by 2027 if nest counts in 2019 are at least comparable to 2012. Because the first year of life represents only 4% of the time elapsed through age 31, cumulative survival at sea across decades explains most cohort variability, and thus, remigrant population size. Pursuant to the U.S. Endangered Species Act, staggered implementation of protection measures for all loggerhead life stages has taken place since the 1970s. We suggest that the 1998–2007 nesting decline represented a lagged perturbation response to historical anthropogenic impacts, and that subsequent nest count increases since 2008 reflect a potential recovery response. PMID

  13. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions.

    PubMed

    Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Parks, Sean A

    2016-01-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported. PMID:27476545

  14. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

    PubMed Central

    Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported. PMID:27476545

  15. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.

    2016-08-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported.

  16. Comparison between high-resolution climate simulations using single- and double-nesting approaches within the Big-Brother experimental protocol

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matte, Dominic; Laprise, René; Thériault, Julie Mireille

    2016-02-01

    Regional climate models (RCM) are widely used to downscale global climate models' (GCMs) simulations. As the resolution of RCM increases faster than that of GCM used for climate-change projections till the end of this century, the resolution jump will become an issue. Cascade with multiple nesting offers an approach to reach high resolution while keeping reasonable computational cost. Few studies have addressed whether the best results are obtained with the single- or multiple-nesting approaches. In this study the results obtained with single and double nesting are compared within the idealised "perfect model" framework of the Big-Brother Experiment. This method consists in first realizing a simulation, nicknamed the Big-Brother (BB) simulation, on a relatively large domain at the desired resolution, to serve as reference dataset. The BB results are then processed by a low-pass filter to emulate a coarse-resolution dataset to be used as LBC to drive further simulations, nicknamed the Little-Brother (LB) simulations, using an identical model formulation and resolution as the BB simulation. For the single nesting, the LB simulations are directly simulated, while for the double nesting a surrogate intermediate-resolution simulation is used. The study of the time-mean (stationary) component shows that little difference is noted between the single- and double-nesting approaches. The time-deviation (transient-eddy) component, however, shows important differences. The double-nesting approach weakly degrades the large scales but allows a significant reduction of the required domain size to allow adequate spin-up of fine-scale features. This results in an important saving in the computational cost.

  17. Regional Climate Change Projections over Northeast Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cassain Sales, Domingo; Araújo Costa, Alexandre; Mariano da Silva, Emerson; Cavalcante, Arnóbio M. B.; das Chagas Vasconcelos Júnior, Francisco; Martins de Araújo Junior, Luiz; Oliveira Guimarães, Sullyandro

    2013-04-01

    Climate change and climate change impact studies often require a spatial resolution beyond the horizontal grid spacing of the data generated by Global Climate Models (GCMs). Dynamical Downscaling is one of techniques that allow regionalization of information from such models, in which the GCM data drive a Regional Climate Model (RCM) that in turn, at least theoretically, presents the climatological fields in more detail and can add value to climatic analysis. In this context, CORDEX is a coordinated experiment that standardizes dynamical downscaling simulations over continental regions, to provide a contribution from the regional climate modeling community to the IPCC/AR5 and beyond. Because computer resources are limited, a modeling group involved in CORDEX typically chooses one or few of the suggested domains, and use one or a few CMIP5 GCM data to drive its regional model. At the State University of Ceará (UECE), in Brazil, we used RAMS6.0 (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System Version 6.0), driven by HadGEM2-ES (Hadley Centre Global Enviroment Model Version 2 - Earth System) data, over a extended CORDEX Central America domain (longitude: 124.5W to 24.5W, latitude: 33.5N to 17.5S). This work presents the evaluation of climatological features of precipitation and temperature over Northeast Brazil region (longitude: 47W to 34.5W, latitude: 2.5S to 17.5S) for 20 years of the historical period (1985-2005) evaluating short-term (2015-2035), mid-term (2045-2065) and long-term (2079-2099) changes, under the RCP4.5 e RCP8.5 scenarios. For the historical period, the results were compared against several observed data sets, in order to evaluate the performance of RAMS6.0 nested to HadGEM2-ES. The correlation between the simulated and observed annual cycle of precipitation is high (above 0.93). RAMS6.0 shows a wet bias of 0.706 mm/day that is larger than HadGEM2-ES bias (0.197 mm/day), however the regional model corrects the month of maximum precipitation (the global model

  18. Duck nest success on Conservation Reserve Program land in the prairie pothole region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kantrud, H.A.

    1993-01-01

    Habitat fragmentation from intensified farming has concentrated nesting waterfowl and their predators in the remaining, relatively small untitled habitats of the prairie pothole region in the United States. The areas of land that have been enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) in this area could help disperse these concentrations and reduce losses to predators. The presence of CRP land may influence decisions about intensive management of public lands devoted to waterfowl production. During 1989-1991, waterfowl nest success on CRP fields in areas of high wetland density in the prairie pothole region was 23.1 percent compared to 8.2 percent on similar covers on federal waterfowl production areas. CRP fields thus provided more secure nesting cover for upland-nesting ducks than waterfowl production areas. However, nest success and use of the fields by ducks varied greatly. CRP fields are abundant and of a wide variety of age classes and sizes. These characteristics make CRP fields well suited as study sites for determining the effects of cover area, distance to water, and cover age on nest success of ducks.

  19. Factors associated with duck nest success in the prairie pothole region of Canada

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Greenwood, R.J.; Sargeant, A.B.; Johnson, D.H.; Cowardin, L.; Shaffer, T.L.

    1995-01-01

    Populations of some dabbling ducks have declined sharply in recent decades and information is needed to understand reasons for this. During 1982-85, we studied duck nesting for 1-4 years in 17 1.6 by 16.0-km, high-density duck areas in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of Canada, 9 in parkland and 8 in prairie. We estimated nest-initiation dates, habitat preferences, nest success, and nest fates for mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), gadwalls (A. strepera), blue-winged teals (A. discors), northern shovelers (A. clypeata), and northern pintails (A. acuta). We also examined the relation of mallard production to geographic and temporal variation in wetlands, breeding populations, nesting effort, and hatch rate.Average periods of nest initiation were similar for mallards and northern pintails, and nearly twice as long as those of gadwalls, blue-winged teals, and northern shovelers. Median date of nest initiation was related to presence of wet wetlands (contained visible standing water), spring precipitation, and May temperature. Length of initiation period was related to presence of wet wetlands and precipitation in May, June temperature, and nest success; it was negatively related overall to drought that prevailed over much of Prairie Canada during the study, especially in 1984.Mallards, gadwalls, and northern pintails nested most often in brush in native grassland, blue-winged teals in road rights-of-way, and northern shovelers in hayfields and small (<2 ha) untilled tracts of upland habitat (hereafter called Odd area). Among 8 habitat classes that composed all suitable nesting habitat of each study area, nest success estimates averaged 25% in Woodland, 19% in Brush, 18% in Hayland, 16% in Wetland, 15% in Grass, 11% in Odd area, 8% in Right-of-way, and 2% in Cropland. We detected no significant difference in nest success among species: mallard (11%), gadwall (14%), blue-winged teal (15%), northern shoveler (12%), and northern pintail (7%). Annual nest success (pooled by

  20. Communal nesting under climate change: fitness consequences of higher incubation temperatures for a nocturnal lizard.

    PubMed

    Dayananda, Buddhi; Gray, Sarah; Pike, David; Webb, Jonathan K

    2016-07-01

    Communal nesting lizards may be vulnerable to climate warming, particularly if air temperatures regulate nest temperatures. In southeastern Australia, velvet geckos Oedura lesueurii lay eggs communally inside rock crevices. We investigated whether increases in air temperatures could elevate nest temperatures, and if so, how this could influence hatching phenotypes, survival, and population dynamics. In natural nests, maximum daily air temperature influenced mean and maximum daily nest temperatures, implying that nest temperatures will increase under climate warming. To determine whether hotter nests influence hatchling phenotypes, we incubated eggs under two fluctuating temperature regimes to mimic current 'cold' nests (mean = 23.2 °C, range 10-33 °C) and future 'hot' nests (27.0 °C, 14-37 °C). 'Hot' incubation temperatures produced smaller hatchlings than did cold temperature incubation. We released individually marked hatchlings into the wild in 2014 and 2015, and monitored their survival over 10 months. In 2014 and 2015, hot-incubated hatchlings had higher annual mortality (99%, 97%) than cold-incubated (11%, 58%) or wild-born hatchlings (78%, 22%). To determine future trajectories of velvet gecko populations under climate warming, we ran population viability analyses in Vortex and varied annual rates of hatchling mortality within the range 78- 96%. Hatchling mortality strongly influenced the probability of extinction and the mean time to extinction. When hatchling mortality was >86%, populations had a higher probability of extinction (PE: range 0.52- 1.0) with mean times to extinction of 18-44 years. Whether future changes in hatchling survival translate into reduced population viability will depend on the ability of females to modify their nest-site choices. Over the period 1992-2015, females used the same communal nests annually, suggesting that there may be little plasticity in maternal nest-site selection. The impacts of climate change may

  1. Landscape and regional context differentially affect nest parasitism and nest predation for Wood Thrush in central Virginia, USA (Presentation)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Many empirical studies have shown that forest-breeding songbirds suffer greater rates of nest predation and nest parasitism in smaller forest patches and in fragmented landscapes. To compare the performance of different metrics of spatial habitat configuration resulting from defo...

  2. Climate Simulations based on a different-grid nested and coupled model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Dan; Ji, Jinjun; Li, Yinpeng

    2002-05-01

    An atmosphere-vegetation interaction model (A VIM) has been coupled with a nine-layer General Cir-culation Model (GCM) of Institute of Atmospheic Physics/State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (IAP/LASG), which is rhomboidally truncated at zonal wave number 15, to simulate global climatic mean states. A VIM is a model having inter-feedback between land surface processes and eco-physiological processes on land. As the first step to couple land with atmosphere completely, the physiological processes are fixed and only the physical part (generally named the SVAT (soil-vegetation-atmosphere-transfer scheme) model) of AVIM is nested into IAP/LASG L9R15 GCM. The ocean part of GCM is prescribed and its monthly sea surface temperature (SST) is the climatic mean value. With respect to the low resolution of GCM, i.e., each grid cell having lon-gitude 7.5° and latitude 4.5°, the vegetation is given a high resolution of 1.5° by 1.5° to nest and couple the fine grid cells of land with the coarse grid cells of atmosphere. The coupling model has been integrated for 15 years and its last ten-year mean of outputs was chosen for analysis. Compared with observed data and NCEP reanalysis, the coupled model simulates the main characteris-tics of global atmospheric circulation and the fields of temperature and moisture. In particular, the simu-lated precipitation and surface air temperature have sound results. The work creates a solid base on coupling climate models with the biosphere.

  3. Climate Impacts on Sea Turtle Breeding Phenology in Greece and Associated Foraging Habitats in the Wider Mediterranean Region

    PubMed Central

    Morreale, Stephen J.; Saba, Vincent S.; Panagopoulou, Aliki; Margaritoulis, Dimitris; Spotila, James R.

    2016-01-01

    Sea turtles are vulnerable to climate change impacts in both their terrestrial (nesting beach) and oceanic habitats. From 1982 to 2012, air and sea surface temperatures at major high use foraging and nesting regions (n = 5) of loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) nesting in Greece have steadily increased. Here, we update the established relationships between sea surface temperature and nesting data from Zakynthos (latitude: 37.7°N), a major nesting beach, while also expanding these analyses to include precipitation and air temperature and additional nesting data from two other key beaches in Greece: Kyparissia Bay (latitude: 37.3°N) and Rethymno, Crete (latitude: 35.4°N). We confirmed that nesting phenology at Zakynthos has continued to be impacted by breeding season temperature; however, temperature has no consistent relationship with nest numbers, which are declining on Zakynthos and Crete but increasing at Kyparissia. Then using statistically downscaled outputs of 14 climate models assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we projected future shifts in nesting for these populations. Based on the climate models, we projected that temperature at the key foraging and breeding sites (Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea, Crete, Gulf of Gabès and Zakynthos/Kyparissia Bay; overall latitudinal range: 33.0°—45.8°N) for loggerhead turtles nesting in Greece will rise by 3–5°C by 2100. Our calculations indicate that the projected rise in air and ocean temperature at Zakynthos could cause the nesting season in this major rookery to shift to an earlier date by as much as 50–74 days by 2100. Although an earlier onset of the nesting season may provide minor relief for nest success as temperatures rise, the overall climatic changes to the various important habitats will most likely have an overall negative impact on this population. PMID:27332550

  4. Climate Impacts on Sea Turtle Breeding Phenology in Greece and Associated Foraging Habitats in the Wider Mediterranean Region.

    PubMed

    Patel, Samir H; Morreale, Stephen J; Saba, Vincent S; Panagopoulou, Aliki; Margaritoulis, Dimitris; Spotila, James R

    2016-01-01

    Sea turtles are vulnerable to climate change impacts in both their terrestrial (nesting beach) and oceanic habitats. From 1982 to 2012, air and sea surface temperatures at major high use foraging and nesting regions (n = 5) of loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) nesting in Greece have steadily increased. Here, we update the established relationships between sea surface temperature and nesting data from Zakynthos (latitude: 37.7°N), a major nesting beach, while also expanding these analyses to include precipitation and air temperature and additional nesting data from two other key beaches in Greece: Kyparissia Bay (latitude: 37.3°N) and Rethymno, Crete (latitude: 35.4°N). We confirmed that nesting phenology at Zakynthos has continued to be impacted by breeding season temperature; however, temperature has no consistent relationship with nest numbers, which are declining on Zakynthos and Crete but increasing at Kyparissia. Then using statistically downscaled outputs of 14 climate models assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we projected future shifts in nesting for these populations. Based on the climate models, we projected that temperature at the key foraging and breeding sites (Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea, Crete, Gulf of Gabès and Zakynthos/Kyparissia Bay; overall latitudinal range: 33.0°-45.8°N) for loggerhead turtles nesting in Greece will rise by 3-5°C by 2100. Our calculations indicate that the projected rise in air and ocean temperature at Zakynthos could cause the nesting season in this major rookery to shift to an earlier date by as much as 50-74 days by 2100. Although an earlier onset of the nesting season may provide minor relief for nest success as temperatures rise, the overall climatic changes to the various important habitats will most likely have an overall negative impact on this population. PMID:27332550

  5. Contaminant exposure and reproductive success of ospreys (Pandion haliaetus) nesting in Chesapeake Bay regions of concern.

    PubMed

    Rattner, B A; McGowan, P C; Golden, N H; Hatfield, J S; Toschik, P C; Lukei, R F; Hale, R C; Schmitz-Afonso, I; Rice, C P

    2004-07-01

    The Chesapeake Bay osprey population has more than doubled in size since restrictions were placed on the production and use of DDT and other toxic organochlorine contaminants in the 1970s. Ospreys are now nesting in the most highly polluted portions of the Bay. In 2000 and 2001, contaminant exposure and reproduction were monitored in ospreys nesting in regions of concern, including Baltimore Harbor and the Patapsco River, the Anacostia and middle Potomac rivers, and the Elizabeth River, and a presumed reference site consisting of the South, West, and Rhode rivers. A "sample egg" from each study nest was collected for contaminant analysis, and the fate of eggs remaining in each nest (n = 14-16/site) was monitored at 7- to 10-day intervals from egg incubation through fledging of young. Ospreys fledged young in regions of concern (observed success: 0.88-1.53 fledglings/active nest), although productivity was marginal for sustaining local populations in Baltimore Harbor and the Patapsco River and in the Anacostia and middle Potomac rivers. Concentrations of p,p'-DDE and many other organochlorine pesticides or metabolites, total PCBs, some arylhydrocarbon receptor-active PCB congeners and polybrominated diphenyl ether congeners, and perfluorooctanesulfonate were often greater in sample eggs from regions of concern compared to the reference site. Nonetheless, logistic regression analyses did not provide evidence linking marginal productivity to p,p'-DDE, total PCBs, or arylhydrocarbon receptor-active PCB congener exposure in regions of concern. In view of the moderate concentrations of total PCBs in eggs from the reference site, concerns related to new and emerging toxicants, and the absence of ecotoxicological data for terrestrial vertebrates in many Bay tributaries, a more thorough spatial evaluation of contaminant exposure in ospreys throughout the Chesapeake may be warranted. PMID:15346786

  6. Contaminant exposure and reproductive success of Ospreys (Pandion haliaetus) nesting in Chesapeake Bay regions of concern

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rattner, B.A.; McGowan, P.C.; Golden, N.H.; Hatfield, J.S.; Toschik, P.C.; Lukei, R.F., Jr.; Hale, R.C.; Schmitz-Afonso, I.; Rice, C.P.

    2004-01-01

    The Chesapeake Bay osprey population has more than doubled in size since restrictions were placed on the production and use of DDT and other toxic organochlorine contaminants in the 1970s. Ospreys are now nesting in the most highly polluted portions of the Bay. In 2000 and 2001, contaminant exposure and reproduction were monitored in ospreys nesting in regions of concern, including Baltimore Harbor and the Patapsco River, the Anacostia and middle Potomac rivers, and the Elizabeth River, and a presumed reference site consisting of the South, West, and Rhode rivers. A 'sample egg' from each study nest was collected for contaminant analysis, and the fate of eggs remaining in each nest (n = 14-16/site) was monitored at 7- to 10-day intervals from egg incubation through fledging of young. Ospreys fledged young in regions of concern (observed success: 0.88 -1.53 fledglings/active nest), although productivity was marginal for sustaining local populations in Baltimore Harbor and the Patapsco River and in the Anacostia and middle Potomac rivers. Concentrations of p,p'DDE and many other organochlorine pesticides or metabolites, total PCBs, some arylhydrocarbon receptor-active PCB congeners and polybrominated diphenyl ether congeners, and perfluorooctanesulfonate were often greater in sample eggs from regions of concern compared to the reference site. Nonetheless, logistic regression analyses did not provide evidence linking marginal productivity to p,p' -DDE, total PCBs, or arylhydrocarbon receptor-active PCB congener exposure in regions of concern. In view of the moderate concentrations of total PCBs in eggs from the reference site, concerns related to new and emerging toxicants, and the absence of ecotoxicological data for terrestrial vertebrates in many Bay tributaries, a more thorough spatial evaluation of contaminant exposure in ospreys throughout the Chesapeake may be warranted.

  7. Effects of climate and exurban development on nest predation and predator presence in the southern Appalachian Mountains (USA).

    PubMed

    Lumpkin, Heather A; Pearson, Scott M; Turner, Monica G

    2012-08-01

    In the eastern United States, land-use and climate change have likely contributed to declines in the abundance of Neotropical migrant birds that occupy forest interiors, but the mechanisms are not well understood. We conducted a nest-predation experiment in southern Appalachian Mountain forests (North Carolina, U.S.A.) during the 2009 and 2010 breeding seasons to determine the effects of exurban development and temperature on predator presence and the average number of days until eggs in an artificial nest were disturbed by predators. We baited artificial nests with quail (Excalfactoria chinensi) eggs and monitored them for 18 days. We used clay eggs, track plates, and motion-triggered cameras to detect and identify nest predators. The average number of days a nest was undisturbed decreased as mean temperature increased and, to a lesser extent, as the density of buildings increased. Nests on the ground were more often depredated than those in trees, likely due to increased predation by opossum (Didelphis virginiana) and other carnivores. Raccoons (Procyon lotor), opossums, corvids (Corvus brachyrhynchos and Cyanocitta cristata), chipmunks (Tamias striatus), black bears (Ursus americanus), and domestic cats (Felis catus) were the most commonly detected predators. Presence of these predators did not vary as a function of mean temperature. Domestic cats and corvids were detected more frequently in plots with high rather than low densities of buildings. Forest-interior specialists and Neotropical migrants often nest in cool, high-elevation areas with low housing density. These bird species, especially those that nest on the ground, may be most vulnerable to increased nest predation if temperature and exurban development increase at higher elevations as anticipated. PMID:22624665

  8. Effects of human presence on chimpanzee nest location in the Lebialem-Mone forest landscape, Southwest Region, Cameroon.

    PubMed

    Last, Cadell; Muh, Bernice

    2013-01-01

    In several areas of Africa, great apes experience increasing predation pressure as a result of human activities. In this study, terrestrial and arboreal nest construction among chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes ellioti) populations was investigated in the Lebialem-Mone Forest Landscape (LMFL), Southwest Region, Cameroon, to examine the anthropogenic effects on nest location. Data on the height, distribution and approximate age of chimpanzee night nests were collected during two 4-week primate field surveys (July to August 2010; July 2011) at two field sites (Bechati and Andu) within the LMFL. Data were collected using the line transect method. Chimpanzee night nests were categorized by their location: arboreal versus terrestrial. During the two field surveys, arboreal night nests were the most frequently constructed nest type at both sites, and the only type of night nest constructed at Bechati. Terrestrial night nests were also constructed at Andu. The main difference between these two sites is the level of human predation and agricultural development. At Bechati chimpanzees inhabit forest regions around dense, expanding villages and are regularly hunted by humans. However, at Andu the chimpanzee populations are not under the same threat. Therefore, terrestrial night nest construction in the LMFL appears to be a behavior exhibited where there is less human presence. PMID:23406888

  9. Regional climate change projections over southern Africa: Benefits of a high resolution climate change simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haensler, A.; Hagemann, S.; Jacob, D.

    2009-12-01

    The southern African region is known to be a biodiversity hotspot but future climate change is likely to have a major influence on the biodiversity. To estimate the impacts of climate change on the biosphere high resolution climate information is needed for both current and future conditions. In the framework of the BIOTA South project we are therefore applying the regional climate model (RCM) REMO of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) over the southern African region. The model is integrated for a transient climate change simulation for the time period 1960 to 2100 at 1/2 degree and 1/6 degree horizontal resolution using a double-nesting approach. The 1/6 degree simulation is the first long-term climate projection for southern Africa on such a high horizontal resolution. The boundary forcing for the 1/2 degree projection is taken from a global ECHAM5/MPIOM IPCC A1B scenario simulation. In the current study we will analyse projected changes on the hydrological cycle, thereby focusing on the Orange river catchment and on the main BIOTA research transect, which spans from the north-east corner of Namibia to the Cape region in the South. In order to quantify the impact of model resolution on the projected changes we will intercompare the two REMO simulations and the ECHAM5/MPIOM forcing data. A comparison for the high resolution REMO validation simulation and its forcing ERA40 data already revealed an added value in the representation of the seasonal rainfall characteristics for the region. The benefits of using high resolution RCM data for climate change studies will be highlighted and uncertainties introduced by the application of an RCM will be discussed.

  10. Investigation of Northeastern North America Coastal Circulation Using a Nested Regional Circulation Hindcast Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, K.; He, R.

    2008-12-01

    A regional coastal circulation model was used to hindcast circulation over the middle Atlantic Bight (MAB) and Gulf of Maine (GOM) shelf from November 2003 to June 2008. Realistic atmospheric forcing, tidal harmonics and real-time river runoff data were used to drive the hindcast. In addition, this regional model was nested inside the data assimilative global HYCOM, which provides dynamically consistent and numerically accurate its initial and open boundary conditions. Model hindcast solutions were gauged against in situ observations, including coastal sea levels, satellite altimeter sea surface height, mooring observed temperature and salinity time series, glider hydrographic transects, and long term means of depth-averaged current analysis. Such data/model comparisons show the nested regional model is skillful in capturing major regional shelf circulation variability, lending confidence for using 4-year of time and space continuous hindcast fields (January 2004-December 2007) to depict shelf- wide circulation dynamics, along- and cross-shelf transport and the associated momentum balances. Model hindcast solutions confirm the existence of the equatorward shelf circulation with gradually decreased alongshore transport from north to south. Mean alongshelf current is characterized by a strong shelf-break jet, whereas the cross-shelf current is characterized by complex convergence and divergence on the shelf. Mean cross-shelf transports were estimated along 200-m isobath. Momentum balance analyses further nonlinear advection, stress and diffusion term all contribute to the ageostrophic circulation in the along- isobath directions, whereas in the across-isobath direction, the nonlinear advection is predominate. Our nested regional circulation model was also coupled with a 11-component ecosystem model. Some preliminary bio-physical modeling result will also be presented.

  11. FY08 LDRD Final Report Regional Climate

    SciTech Connect

    Bader, D C; Chin, H; Caldwell, P M

    2009-05-19

    An integrated, multi-model capability for regional climate change simulation is needed to perform original analyses to understand and prepare for the impacts of climate change on the time and space scales that are critical to California's future environmental quality and economic prosperity. Our intent was to develop a very high resolution regional simulation capability to address consequences of climate change in California to complement the global modeling capability that is supported by DOE at LLNL and other institutions to inform national and international energy policies. The California state government, through the California Energy Commission (CEC), institutionalized the State's climate change assessment process through its biennial climate change reports. The bases for these reports, however, are global climate change simulations for future scenarios designed to inform international policy negotiations, and are primarily focused on the global to continental scale impacts of increasing emissions of greenhouse gases. These simulations do not meet the needs of California public and private officials who will make major decisions in the next decade that require an understanding of climate change in California for the next thirty to fifty years and its effects on energy use, water utilization, air quality, agriculture and natural ecosystems. With the additional development of regional dynamical climate modeling capability, LLNL will be able to design and execute global simulations specifically for scenarios important to the state, then use those results to drive regional simulations of the impacts of the simulated climate change for regions as small as individual cities or watersheds. Through this project, we systematically studied the strengths and weaknesses of downscaling global model results with a regional mesoscale model to guide others, particularly university researchers, who are using the technique based on models with less complete parameterizations or

  12. High Resolution Regional Climate Modeling for Lebanon, Eastern Mediterranean Coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Katurji, Marwan; Soltanzadeh, Iman; Kuhnlein, Meike; Zawar-Reza, Peyman

    2013-04-01

    The Eastern Mediterranean coast consists of Lebanon, Palestine, Syria, Israel and a small part of southern Turkey. The region lies between latitudes 30 degrees S and 40 degrees N, which makes its climate affected by westerly propagating wintertime cyclones spinning off mid-latitude troughs (December, January and February), while during summer (June, July and August) the area is strongly affected by the sub-tropical anti-cyclonic belt as a result of the descending air of the Hadley cell circulation system. The area is considered to be in a transitional zone between tropical to mid-latitude climate regimes, and having a coastal topography up to 3000 m in elevation (like in the Western Ranges of Lebanon), which emphasizes the complexity of climate variability in this area under future predictions of climate change. This research incorporates both regional climate numerical simulations, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite derived and surface rain gauge rainfall data to evaluate the Regional Climate Model (RegCM) version 4 ability to represent both the mean and variance of observed precipitation in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, with emphasis on the Lebanese coastal terrain and mountain ranges. The adopted methodology involves dynamically down scaling climate data from reanalysis synoptic files through a double nesting procedure. The retrospective analysis of 13 years with both 50 and 10 km spatial resolution allows for the assessment of the model results on both a climate scale and specific high intensity precipitating events. The spatial averaged mean bias error in precipitation rate for the rainy season predicted by RegCM 50 and 10 km resolution grids was 0.13 and 0.004 mm hr-1 respectively. When correlating RegCM and TRMM precipitation rate for the domain covering Lebanon's coastal mountains, the root mean square error (RMSE) for the mean quantities over the 13-year period was only 0.03, while the RMSE for the standard deviation was higher by one

  13. Towards predictive understanding of regional climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, Shang-Ping; Deser, Clara; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Collins, Matthew; Delworth, Thomas L.; Hall, Alex; Hawkins, Ed; Johnson, Nathaniel C.; Cassou, Christophe; Giannini, Alessandra; Watanabe, Masahiro

    2015-10-01

    Regional information on climate change is urgently needed but often deemed unreliable. To achieve credible regional climate projections, it is essential to understand underlying physical processes, reduce model biases and evaluate their impact on projections, and adequately account for internal variability. In the tropics, where atmospheric internal variability is small compared with the forced change, advancing our understanding of the coupling between long-term changes in upper-ocean temperature and the atmospheric circulation will help most to narrow the uncertainty. In the extratropics, relatively large internal variability introduces substantial uncertainty, while exacerbating risks associated with extreme events. Large ensemble simulations are essential to estimate the probabilistic distribution of climate change on regional scales. Regional models inherit atmospheric circulation uncertainty from global models and do not automatically solve the problem of regional climate change. We conclude that the current priority is to understand and reduce uncertainties on scales greater than 100 km to aid assessments at finer scales.

  14. The Regional Impacts of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Watson, Robert T.; Zinyowera, Marufu C.; Moss, Richard H.

    1997-12-01

    The degree to which human conditions and the natural environment are vulnerable to the potential effects of climate change is a key concern for governments and the environmental science community worldwide. This book from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides the best available base of scientific information for policymakers and public use. The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability reviews state-of-the-art information on potential impacts of climate change for ecological systems, water supply, food production, coastal infrastructure, human health, and other resources for ten global regions. It also illustrates that the increasing costs of climate and climate variability, in terms of loss of human life and capital due to floods, storms, and droughts, are a result of the lack of adjustment and response in society's policies and use of resources. This book points to management options that would make many sectors more resilient to current variability in climate and thus help these sectors adapt to future changes in climate. This book will become the primary source of information on regional aspects of climate change for policymakers, the scientific community, and students.

  15. The Regional Impacts of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Watson, Robert T.; Zinyowera, Marufu C.; Moss, Richard H.

    1998-01-01

    The degree to which human conditions and the natural environment are vulnerable to the potential effects of climate change is a key concern for governments and the environmental science community worldwide. This book from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides the best available base of scientific information for policymakers and public use. The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability reviews state-of-the-art information on potential impacts of climate change for ecological systems, water supply, food production, coastal infrastructure, human health, and other resources for ten global regions. It also illustrates that the increasing costs of climate and climate variability, in terms of loss of human life and capital due to floods, storms, and droughts, are a result of the lack of adjustment and response in society's policies and use of resources. This book points to management options that would make many sectors more resilient to current variability in climate and thus help these sectors adapt to future changes in climate. This book will become the primary source of information on regional aspects of climate change for policymakers, the scientific community, and students.

  16. Great plains regional climate assessment technical report

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Great Plains region (GP) plays important role in providing food and energy to the economy of the United States. Multiple climatic and non-climatic stressors put multiple sectors, livelihoods and communities at risk, including agriculture, water, ecosystems and rural and tribal communities. The G...

  17. Regional climate service in Southern Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schipper, Janus; Hackenbruch, Julia

    2013-04-01

    Climate change challenges science, politics, business and society at the international, national and regional level. The South German Climate Office at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) is a contact for the structuring and dissemination of information on climate and climate change in the South German region. It provides scientifically based and user-oriented climate information. Thereby it builds a bridge between the climate sciences and society and provides scientific information on climate change in an understandable way. The expertise of KIT, in which several institutions operate on fundamental and applied climate research, and of partner institutions is the basis for the work in the climate office. The regional focus is on the south of Germany. Thematic focuses are e.g. regional climate modeling, trends in extreme weather events such as heavy rain and hail event, and issues for energy and water management. The South German Climate Office is one of four Regional Helmholtz Climate Offices, of which each has a regional and thematic focus. The users of the Climate Office can be summarized into three categories. First, there is the general public. This category consists mainly of non-professionals. Here, special attention is on an understandable translation of climate information. Attention is paid to application-related aspects, because each individual is affected in a different way by climate change. Typical examples of this category are school groups, citizens and the media. The second category consists of experts of other disciplines. Unlike the first category they are mainly interested in the exchange of results and data. It is important to the climate office to provide support for the use of climatological results. Typical representatives of this category are ministries, state offices, and companies. In the third and final category are scientists. In addition to the climatologists, this category also holds representatives from other scientific

  18. Automatic Multi-Scale Calibration Procedure for Nested Hydrological-Hydrogeological Regional Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Labarthe, B.; Abasq, L.; Flipo, N.; de Fouquet, C. D.

    2014-12-01

    Large hydrosystem modelling and understanding is a complex process depending on regional and local processes. A nested interface concept has been implemented in the hydrosystem modelling platform for a large alluvial plain model (300 km2) part of a 11000 km2 multi-layer aquifer system, included in the Seine basin (65000 km2, France). The platform couples hydrological and hydrogeological processes through four spatially distributed modules (Mass balance, Unsaturated Zone, River and Groundwater). An automatic multi-scale calibration procedure is proposed. Using different data sets from regional scale (117 gauging stations and 183 piezometers over the 65000 km2) to the intermediate scale(dense past piezometric snapshot), it permits the calibration and homogenization of model parameters over scales.The stepwise procedure starts with the optimisation of the water mass balance parameters at regional scale using a conceptual 7 parameters bucket model coupled with the inverse modelling tool PEST. The multi-objective function is derived from river discharges and their de-composition by hydrograph separation. The separation is performed at each gauging station using an automatic procedure based one Chapman filter. Then, the model is run at the regional scale to provide recharge estimate and regional fluxes to the groundwater local model. Another inversion method is then used to determine the local hydrodynamic parameters. This procedure used an initial kriged transmissivity field which is successively updated until the simulated hydraulic head distribution equals a reference one obtained by krigging. Then, the local parameters are upscaled to the regional model by renormalisation procedure.This multi-scale automatic calibration procedure enhances both the local and regional processes representation. Indeed, it permits a better description of local heterogeneities and of the associated processes which are transposed into the regional model, improving the overall performances

  19. Challenges in Modeling Regional Climate Change (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leung, L.

    2013-12-01

    Precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff are vital to ecosystems and human activities. Predicting changes in the space-time characteristics of these water cycle processes has been a longstanding challenge in climate modeling. Different modeling approaches have been developed to allow high resolution to be achieved using available computing resources. Although high resolution is necessary to better resolve regional forcing and processes, improvements in simulating water cycle response are difficult to demonstrate and climate models have so far shown irreducible sensitivity to model resolution, dynamical framework, and physics parameterizations that confounds reliable predictions of regional climate change. Additionally, regional climate responds to both regional and global forcing but predicting changes in regional and global forcing such as related to land use/land cover and aerosol requires improved understanding and modeling of the dynamics of human-earth system interactions. Furthermore, regional response and regional forcing may be related through complex interactions that are dependent on the regional climate regimes, making decisions on regional mitigation and adaptation more challenging. Examples of the aforementioned challenges from on-going research and possible future directions will be discussed.

  20. Regional Climate Change Hotspots over Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anber, U.; Zakey, A.; Abd El Wahab, M.

    2009-04-01

    Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI), is developed based on regional mean precipitation change, mean surface air temperature change, and change in precipitation and temperature interannual variability. The RCCI is a comparative index designed to identify the most responsive regions to climate change, or Hot- Spots. The RCCI is calculated for Seven land regions over North Africa and Arabian region from the latest set of climate change projections by 14 global climates for the A1B, A2 and B1 IPCC emission scenarios. The concept of climate change can be approaches from the viewpoint of vulnerability or from that of climate response. In the former case a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region for which potential climate change impacts on the environment or different activity sectors can be particularly pronounced. In the other case, a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region whose climate is especially responsive to global change. In particular, the characterization of climate change response-based Hot-Spot can provide key information to identify and investigate climate change Hot-Spots based on results from multi-model ensemble of climate change simulations performed by modeling groups from around the world as contributions to the Fourth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) is defined based on four variables: change in regional mean surface air temperature relative to the global average temperature change ( or Regional Warming Amplification Factor, RWAF ), change in mean regional precipitation (P % , of present day value ), change in regional surface air temperature interannual variability (T % ,of present day value), change in regional precipitation interannual variability (P % ,of present day value ). In the definition of the RCCI it is important to include quantities other than mean change because often mean changes are not the only important factors for specific impacts. We thus also include inter

  1. Regional Climate Change Hotspots over Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anber, U.

    2009-04-01

    Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI), is developed based on regional mean precipitation change, mean surface air temperature change, and change in precipitation and temperature interannual variability. The RCCI is a comparative index designed to identify the most responsive regions to climate change, or Hot- Spots. The RCCI is calculated for Seven land regions over North Africa and Arabian region from the latest set of climate change projections by 14 global climates for the A1B, A2 and B1 IPCC emission scenarios. The concept of climate change can be approaches from the viewpoint of vulnerability or from that of climate response. In the former case a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region for which potential climate change impacts on the environment or different activity sectors can be particularly pronounced. In the other case, a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region whose climate is especially responsive to global change. In particular, the characterization of climate change response-based Hot-Spot can provide key information to identify and investigate climate change Hot-Spots based on results from multi-model ensemble of climate change simulations performed by modeling groups from around the world as contributions to the Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) is defined based on four variables: change in regional mean surface air temperature relative to the global average temperature change ( or Regional Warming Amplification Factor, RWAF ), change in mean regional precipitation ( , of present day value ), change in regional surface air temperature interannual variability ( ,of present day value), change in regional precipitation interannual variability ( , of present day value ). In the definition of the RCCI it is important to include quantities other than mean change because often mean changes are not the only important factors for specific impacts. We thus also include inter annual

  2. RSL: A parallel Runtime System Library for regional atmospheric models with nesting

    SciTech Connect

    Michalakes, J.G.

    1997-08-01

    RSL is a parallel runtime system library developed at Argonne National Laboratory that is tailored to regular-grid atmospheric models with mesh refinement in the form of two-way interacting nested grids. RSL provides high-level stencil and interdomain communication, irregular domain decomposition, automatic local/global index translation, distributed I/O, and dynamic load balancing. RSL was used with Fortran90 to parallelize a well-known and widely used regional weather model, the Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale model.

  3. Regional Climate Simulation Experiments with a Variable Resolution Stretched Grid GCM

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Takacs, Lawrence L.; Stein, Uri; Govindaraju, Ravi C.

    1999-01-01

    The variable resolution stretched grid (SG) version of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) GCM has been recently developed and tested in a regional climate simulation mode. The SG-approach is an alternative to the widely used nested grid approach introduced a decade ago as a pioneering step to regional climate modeling. The region of interest with a uniform about 60 km resolution used in experiments is a rectangle over the U.S. The results of one annual as well as two-month simulations for the anomalous climate event of the U.S. drought of 1988, are validated against data analysis fields and diagnostics. The efficient regional down-scaling as well as the positive impact of fine regional resolution, are obtained. The SG-concept appeared to be a promising candidate for regional and subregional climate studies and applications.

  4. Use of regional climate models in climate based ecosystem studies

    SciTech Connect

    Hostetler, S.

    1995-09-01

    Regional climate models (RCMs) use horizontal grid spacings on the order of tens of kilometers and thus are able to simulate the climate of a limited area at resolutions much higher than can be attained by general circulation models (horizontal scales of several degrees of hundreds of kilometers). The fine mesh of RCMs allows regional scale features that exert forcings on climate (e.g., lakes, mountains, coastlines) to be resolved. As a result, RCM simulations begin to reflect the heterogeneity of climate that supports the spatially diverse distribution of ecosystems in western North American. Examples of model simulations and comparisons with reconstructions of vegetation during the last glacial maximum (21 K CAL) will be presented.

  5. One regional ARM guide for climatic evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, R.M.

    1990-04-01

    One of the early tasks of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) Program is to provide climatic guides for site selection purposes including possible continental, regional, local and on-site locations. The first guide A Preliminary ARM Guide for Climatic Evaluations'' provided some climate data on a continental scale; this one is an attempt to show the variability that exists over a region. Kansas was chosen for this particular guide because it satisfies most of the requirements given in the ARM Program Plan, i.e., climatic significance, potential for synergism with other programs and scientific and logistical viability. Kansas has extreme climatic variations, is centrally located, is compatible with other large scale programs (Fife), has good airfields and accommodations to minimize time and effort in planning and operating an ARM site for continuous use and special campaigns.

  6. One regional ARM guide for climatic evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, R.M.

    1990-04-01

    One of the early tasks of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) Program is to provide climatic guides for site selection purposes including possible continental, regional, local and on-site locations. The first guide ``A Preliminary ARM Guide for Climatic Evaluations`` provided some climate data on a continental scale; this one is an attempt to show the variability that exists over a region. Kansas was chosen for this particular guide because it satisfies most of the requirements given in the ARM Program Plan, i.e., climatic significance, potential for synergism with other programs and scientific and logistical viability. Kansas has extreme climatic variations, is centrally located, is compatible with other large scale programs (Fife), has good airfields and accommodations to minimize time and effort in planning and operating an ARM site for continuous use and special campaigns.

  7. "Climate Matters Documoments": Enabling Regionally-Specific Climate Awareness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keener, V. W.; Finucane, M.

    2012-12-01

    The Pacific Regional Integrated Sciences & Assessments (RISA) is a multidisciplinary program that enhances the ability of Pacific Island communities to understand, plan for, and adapt to climate-induced change. Using both social and physical science research methods, the Pacific RISA engages a network of regional decision-makers and stakeholders to help solve climate-related issues. Pacific RISA has a broad audience of local and regional decision-makers (i.e. natural resource managers, community planners, state and federal government agencies) and stakeholders (i.e. farmers and ranchers, fishermen, community and native islander groups). The RISA program engages with this audience through a mixed-method approach of two-way communication, including one-on-one interviews, workshops, consensus discussions and public presentations that allow us to tailor our efforts to the needs of specific stakeholders. A recent Pacific RISA project was the creation and production of four short, educational "documoment" videos that explore the different ways in which climate change in Hawaii affects stakeholders from different sectors. The documoments, generally titled "Climate Matters", start with a quote about why climate matters to each stakeholder: a rancher, a coastal hotel owner, the manager of a landfill, and the local branch of the National Weather Service. The narratives then have each stakeholder discussing how climate impacts their professional and personal lives, and describing the types of climate change they have experienced in the islands. Each video ends with a technical fact about how different climate variables in Hawaii (sea level, precipitation, ENSO) have actually changed within the last century of observational data. Freely available on www.PacificRISA.org, the Documoments have been viewed over 350 times, and have inspired similar video projects and received positive attention from different audiences of stakeholders and scientists. In other assessment work the

  8. CLIMATE IMPACTS ON REGIONAL WATER

    EPA Science Inventory

    The New England region (including the 6 New England
    states plus upstate New York) offers a very diverse geography,
    matched by an equally diverse economy and human
    population. Livelihoods throughout the region are based
    on service industries that depend heavily on comm...

  9. Changes in vegetation structure in seeded nesting cover in the prairie pothole region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Higgins, K.F.; Barker, W.T.

    1982-01-01

    A sample of 365 stands of seeded nesting cover (mixtures of cool-season grasses and legumes) was studied in the glaciated prairie pothole region during 1977-79. Measurements of species composition, canopy cover, plant height, and visual obstruction values differed with stand age but only in a general way when results from over the entire region were pooled. Maximum values for plant height and visual obstruction occurred once per stand during the first 10 growing seasons. Although the year of maximum growth was variable and unpredictable, stands showed trends of degeneration in height and visual obstruction after the year of maximum growth.Seeded nesting cover grew similarly throughout the region when on soils of capability class IV or better and within a precipitation range of 30 to 61 cm. Precipitation was the factor that most affected stand growth, especially the amount received in the year before spring measurements. Height and visual obstruction values within a stand were also directly affected by some individual species and by the percentage of grass within a stand. In 2 of the 3 study years, the height and visual obstruction values of residual cover were extremely reduced by ice pack, heavy snow pack, or a combination of snow pack and harvest by rodents. Such events, if frequent, largely negate the possibility of using minimum visual obstruction or plant height measurements for assessing quality of vegetation for wildlife cover and management purposes.Species composition, number of species, and canopy cover varied most during the first three growing seasons and least during the next six. Succession toward dominance by native grasses and forbs and woody species was retarded by the predominance of the species of seeded nesting cover, at least during the first 10 growing seasons.All stands had at least one species present that was either a noxious weed, a problem cropland weed, or a nuisance weed. Weeds were usually local in distribution. Five weed species

  10. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies

    PubMed Central

    Pierce, David W.; Barnett, Tim P.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Gleckler, Peter J.

    2009-01-01

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simulated regional climate. Accordingly, 42 performance metrics based on seasonal temperature and precipitation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are constructed and applied to 21 global models. However, no strong relationship is found between the score of the models on the metrics and results of the D&A analysis. Instead, the importance of having ensembles of runs with enough realizations to reduce the effects of natural internal climate variability is emphasized. Also, the superiority of the multimodel ensemble average (MM) to any 1 individual model, already found in global studies examining the mean climate, is true in this regional study that includes measures of variability as well. Evidence is shown that this superiority is largely caused by the cancellation of offsetting errors in the individual global models. Results with both the MM and models picked randomly confirm the original D&A results of anthropogenically forced JFM temperature changes in the western U.S. Future projections of temperature do not depend on model performance until the 2080s, after which the better performing models show warmer temperatures. PMID:19439652

  11. Regional Climate Simulation with a Variable Resolution Stretched Grid GCM: The Regional Down-Scaling Effects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.; Takacs, Lawrence L.; Suarez, Max; Sawyer, William; Govindaraju, Ravi C.

    1999-01-01

    The results obtained with the variable resolution stretched grid (SG) GEOS GCM (Goddard Earth Observing System General Circulation Models) are discussed, with the emphasis on the regional down-scaling effects and their dependence on the stretched grid design and parameters. A variable resolution SG-GCM and SG-DAS using a global stretched grid with fine resolution over an area of interest, is a viable new approach to REGIONAL and subregional CLIMATE studies and applications. The stretched grid approach is an ideal tool for representing regional to global scale interactions. It is an alternative to the widely used nested grid approach introduced a decade ago as a pioneering step in regional climate modeling. The GEOS SG-GCM is used for simulations of the anomalous U.S. climate events of 1988 drought and 1993 flood, with enhanced regional resolution. The height low level jet, precipitation and other diagnostic patterns are successfully simulated and show the efficient down-scaling over the area of interest the U.S. An imitation of the nested grid approach is performed using the developed SG-DAS (Data Assimilation System) that incorporates the SG-GCM. The SG-DAS is run with withholding data over the area of interest. The design immitates the nested grid framework with boundary conditions provided from analyses. No boundary condition buffer is needed for the case due to the global domain of integration used for the SG-GCM and SG-DAS. The experiments based on the newly developed versions of the GEOS SG-GCM and SG-DAS, with finer 0.5 degree (and higher) regional resolution, are briefly discussed. The major aspects of parallelization of the SG-GCM code are outlined. The KEY OBJECTIVES of the study are: 1) obtaining an efficient DOWN-SCALING over the area of interest with fine and very fine resolution; 2) providing CONSISTENT interactions between regional and global scales including the consistent representation of regional ENERGY and WATER BALANCES; 3) providing a high

  12. Climate Change Projections Using Regional Regression Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Griffis, V. W.; Gyawali, R.; Watkins, D. W.

    2012-12-01

    A typical approach to project climate change impacts on water resources systems is to downscale general circulation model (GCM) or regional climate model (RCM) outputs as forcing data for a watershed model. With downscaled climate model outputs becoming readily available, multi-model ensemble approaches incorporating mutliple GCMs, multiple emissions scenarios and multiple initializations are increasingly being used. While these multi-model climate ensembles represent a range of plausible futures, different hydrologic models and methods may complicate impact assessment. In particular, associated loss, flow routing, snowmelt and evapotranspiration computation methods can markedly increase hydrological modeling uncertainty. Other challenges include properly calibrating and verifying the watershed model and maintaining a consistent energy budget between climate and hydrologic models. An alternative approach, particularly appealing for ungauged basins or locations where record lengths are short, is to directly predict selected streamflow quantiles from regional regression equations that include physical basin characteristics as well as meteorological variables output by climate models (Fennessey 2011). Two sets of regional regression models are developed for the Great Lakes states using ordinary least squares and weighted least squares regression. The regional regression modeling approach is compared with physically based hydrologic modeling approaches for selected Great Lakes watersheds using downscaled outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) as inputs to the Large Basin Runoff Model (LBRM) and the U.S. Army Corps Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS).

  13. Integrating Climate Information and Decision Processes for Regional Climate Resilience

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buizer, James; Goddard, Lisa; Guido, Zackry

    2015-04-01

    An integrated multi-disciplinary team of researchers from the University of Arizona and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University have joined forces with communities and institutions in the Caribbean, South Asia and West Africa to develop relevant, usable climate information and connect it to real decisions and development challenges. The overall objective of the "Integrating Climate Information and Decision Processes for Regional Climate Resilience" program is to build community resilience to negative impacts of climate variability and change. We produce and provide science-based climate tools and information to vulnerable peoples and the public, private, and civil society organizations that serve them. We face significant institutional challenges because of the geographical and cultural distance between the locale of climate tool-makers and the locale of climate tool-users and because of the complicated, often-inefficient networks that link them. To use an accepted metaphor, there is great institutional difficulty in coordinating the supply of and the demand for useful climate products that can be put to the task of building local resilience and reducing climate vulnerability. Our program is designed to reduce the information constraint and to initiate a linkage that is more demand driven, and which provides a set of priorities for further climate tool generation. A demand-driven approach to the co-production of appropriate and relevant climate tools seeks to meet the direct needs of vulnerable peoples as these needs have been canvassed empirically and as the benefits of application have been adequately evaluated. We first investigate how climate variability and climate change affect the livelihoods of vulnerable peoples. In so doing we assess the complex institutional web within which these peoples live -- the public agencies that serve them, their forms of access to necessary information, the structural constraints

  14. CARICOF - The Caribbean Regional Climate Outlook Forum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Van Meerbeeck, Cedric

    2013-04-01

    Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) are viewed as a critical building block in the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The GFCS seeks to extend RCOFs to all vulnerable regions of the world such as the Caribbean, of which the entire population is exposed to water- and heat-related natural hazards. An RCOF is initially intended to identify gaps in information and technical capability; facilitate research cooperation and data exchange within and between regions, and improve coordination within the climate forecasting community. A focus is given on variations in climate conditions on a seasonal timescale. In this view, the relevance of a Caribbean RCOF (CARICOF) is the following: while the seasonality of the climate in the Caribbean has been well documented, major gaps in knowledge exist in terms of the drivers in the shifts of amplitude and phase of seasons (as evidenced from the worst region-wide drought period in recent history during 2009-2010). To address those gaps, CARICOF has brought together National Weather Services (NWSs) from 18 territories under the coordination of the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), to produce region-wide, consensus, seasonal climate outlooks since March 2012. These outlooks include tercile rainfall forecasts, sea and air surface temperature forecasts as well as the likely evolution of the drivers of seasonal climate variability in the region, being amongst others the El Niño Southern Oscillation or tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea temperatures. Forecasts for both the national-scale forecasts made by the NWSs and CIMH's regional-scale forecast amalgamate output from several forecasting tools. These currently include: (1) statistical models such as Canonical Correlation Analysis run with the Climate Predictability Tool, providing tercile rainfall forecasts at weather station scale; (2) a global outlooks published by the WMO appointed Global Producing

  15. Large Ensembles of Regional Climate Projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Massey, Neil; Allen, Myles; Hall, Jim

    2016-04-01

    Projections of regional climate change have great utility for impact assessment at a local scale. The CORDEX climate projection framework presents a method of providing these regional projections by driving a regional climate model (RCM) with output from CMIP5 climate projection runs of global climate models (GCM). This produces an ensemble of regional climate projections, sampling the model uncertainty, the forcing uncertainty and the uncertainty of the response of the climate system to the increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. Using the weather@home project to compute large ensembles of RCMs via volunteer distributed computing presents another method of generating projections of climate variables and also allows the sampling of the uncertainty due to internal variability. weather@home runs both a RCM and GCM on volunteer's home computers, with the free-running GCM driving the boundaries of the RCM. The GCM is an atmosphere only model and requires forcing at the lower boundary with sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice concentration (SIC) data. By constructing SST and SIC projections, using projections of GHG and other atmospheric gases, and running the weather@home RCM and GCM with these forcings, large ensembles of projections of climate variables at regional scales can be made. To construct the SSTs and SICs, a statistical model is built to represent the response of SST and SIC to increases in GHG concentrations in the CMIP5 ensemble, for both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. This statistical model uses empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) to represent the change in the long term trend of SSTs in the CMIP5 projections. A multivariate distribution of the leading principle components (PC) is produced using a copula and sampled to produce a timeseries of PCs which are recombined with the EOFs to generate a timeseries of SSTs, with internal variability added from observations. Hence, a large ensemble of SST projections is generated, with each SST

  16. Nest-climatic factors affect the abundance of biting flies and their effects on nestling condition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martínez-de la Puente, Josué; Merino, Santiago; Lobato, Elisa; Aguilar, Juan Rivero-de; del Cerro, Sara; Ruiz-de-Castañeda, Rafael; Moreno, Juan

    2010-11-01

    The first step in the establishment of a host-biting fly relationship is host location. While a number of studies highlight the role of host emitted products as important cues affecting host location by biting flies, the role of host temperature is far from clear. We investigated the role of different nest microclimatic variables affecting the interaction between pied flycatchers and two biting flies: black flies and biting midges. Biting midge abundances increased with temperature inside the nest, supporting the potential importance of nest temperature as a cue used by insects to localize their hosts. The possibility that biting fly infestations were associated to ecological conditions in the vicinity of the nests is also discussed. Furthermore, we found a negative association between nestling weight (including tarsus length as a covariate in the analyses) and the interaction between the abundance of biting midges and the presence/absence of black flies in nests. The potential negative effect of these ectoparasites on nestling weight (condition index) and potential differences in the bird phenotypic/genetic quality associated with nest site choice and parasite infestations are considered.

  17. Shading and Watering as a Tool to Mitigate the Impacts of Climate Change in Sea Turtle Nests

    PubMed Central

    Hill, Jacob E.; Paladino, Frank V.; Spotila, James R.; Tomillo, Pilar Santidrián

    2015-01-01

    Increasing sand temperatures resulting from climate change may negatively impact sea turtle nests by altering sex ratios and decreasing reproductive output. We analyzed the effect of nest shading and watering on sand temperatures as climate mitigation strategies in a beach hatchery at Playa Grande, Costa Rica. We set up plots and placed thermocouples at depths of 45cm and 75cm. Half of the plots were shaded and half were exposed to the sun. Within these exposure treatments, we applied three watering treatments over one month, replicating local climatic conditions experienced in this area. We also examined gravimetric water content of sand by collecting sand samples the day before watering began, the day after watering was complete, and one month after completion. Shading had the largest impact on sand temperature, followed by watering and depth. All watering treatments lowered sand temperature, but the effect varied with depth. Temperatures in plots that received water returned to control levels within 10 days after watering stopped. Water content increased at both depths in the two highest water treatments, and 30 days after the end of water application remained higher than plots with low water. While the impacts of watering on sand temperature dissipate rapidly after the end of application, the impacts on water content are much more lasting. Although less effective at lowering sand temperatures than shading, watering may benefit sea turtle clutches by offsetting negative impacts of low levels of rain in particularly dry areas. Prior to implementing such strategies, the natural conditions at the location of interest (e.g. clutch depth, environmental conditions, and beach characteristics) and natural hatchling sex ratios should be taken into consideration. These results provide insight into the effectiveness of nest shading and watering as climate mitigation techniques and illustrate important points of consideration in the crafting of such strategies. PMID

  18. Assessing the effect of domain size over the Caribbean region using the PRECIS regional climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Centella-Artola, Abel; Taylor, Michael A.; Bezanilla-Morlot, Arnoldo; Martinez-Castro, Daniel; Campbell, Jayaka D.; Stephenson, Tannecia S.; Vichot, Alejandro

    2015-04-01

    This study investigates the sensitivity of the one-way nested PRECIS regional climate model (RCM) to domain size for the Caribbean region. Simulated regional rainfall patterns from experiments using three domains with horizontal resolution of 50 km are compared with ERA reanalysis and observed datasets to determine if there is an optimal RCM configuration with respect to domain size and the ability to reproduce important observed climate features in the Caribbean. Results are presented for the early wet season (May-July) and late wet season (August-October). There is a relative insensitivity to domain size for simulating some important features of the regional circulation and key rainfall characteristics e.g. the Caribbean low level jet and the mid summer drought (MSD). The downscaled precipitation has a systematically negative precipitation bias, even when the domain was extended to the African coast to better represent circulation associated with easterly waves and tropical cyclones. The implications for optimizing modelling efforts within resource-limited regions like the Caribbean are discussed especially in the context of the region's participation in global initiatives such as CORDEX.

  19. Landscape and regional context differentially affect nest parasitism and nest predation for Wood Thrush in central Virginia, USA

    EPA Science Inventory

    Many empirical studies have shown that forest-breeding songbirds, and neotropical migrants in particular, are found in lower abundance in small patches of forest in the Eastern United States compared to similar, but larger patches in the same region. A common hypothesis for the ...

  20. Time-lagged variation in pond density and primary productivity affects duck nest survival in the Prairie Pothole Region.

    PubMed

    Walker, Johann; Rotella, Jay J; Stephens, Scott E; Lindberg, Mark S; Ringelman, James K; Hunter, Christine; Smith, Aaron J

    2013-07-01

    The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is the primary breeding region for most species of North American dabbling ducks (Anas spp.). Conservation of these species is guided in part by knowledge of relationships between nest survival probability and habitat features. Positive relationships between duck nest survival and amount and configuration of herbaceous perennial vegetation have been observed in previous studies, but these 2- to 4-year studies might not have adequately characterized the temporal effect of wet-dry episodes on nest survival. Over an eight-year period, we studied nest survival of five species of ducks in the PPR relative to spatial and temporal variation in pond density, primary productivity, and hydrologic status of wetlands, soil, and vegetation on 52 study sites selected to span a gradient of spatial variation in proportion of herbaceous perennial vegetation and in number of wetland basins. We observed the fate of 12 754 nests. Consistent with past studies, 90% of nests that failed to hatch were destroyed by predators. Nest survival probability was positively related to current-year pond density and primary productivity, negatively related to pond density and primary productivity during the previous two years, and positively related to the number of wetland basins on the study site. Predicted relationships between nest survival and proportion or configuration of herbaceous perennial vegetation in the surrounding landscape were not supported. For mallard (Anas platyrhynchos), median estimated nest survival probability ranged from 0.02 (SE = 0.01) to 0.22 (SE = 0.02). Estimated nest survival was greatest on sites with numerous wetland basins that had transitioned from dry, unproductive conditions to wet, productive conditions in the previous 1-2 years. Our results were consistent with time-lagged responses of food webs to resource pulses in a broad array of ecosystems. Our study highlighted the importance of wetland basins and wet-dry episodes to duck

  1. Regional climate change and national responsibilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko

    2016-03-01

    Global warming over the past several decades is now large enough that regional climate change is emerging above the noise of natural variability, especially in the summer at middle latitudes and year-round at low latitudes. Despite the small magnitude of warming relative to weather fluctuations, effects of the warming already have notable social and economic impacts. Global warming of 2 °C relative to preindustrial would shift the ‘bell curve’ defining temperature anomalies a factor of three larger than observed changes since the middle of the 20th century, with highly deleterious consequences. There is striking incongruity between the global distribution of nations principally responsible for fossil fuel CO2 emissions, known to be the main cause of climate change, and the regions suffering the greatest consequences from the warming, a fact with substantial implications for global energy and climate policies.

  2. Regional downscaling of global climate runs for Nepal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Granerød, M.; Mesquita, M. D.; Basnayake, S.

    2011-12-01

    Nepal is a vulnerable country to changes in climate. This is mainly due to its dependency on water resources from the Himalayas. There is evidence of significant warming in Nepal, with an average trend of around +0.06 degrees Celsius per year. Studies have shown that the warming rates are higher in higher altitudes. Such temperature trend will have an impact on the melting of the glaciers and consequently on Nepal. Precipitation has also been observed to have increased, but not at the same magnitude as temperature. The water supply is affected by more unpredictable precipitation that can lead to droughts and shorter heavy rainfall. Future projections can give an indication whether these factors will affect river runoff, which can have large impacts on agriculture and in other sectors. Global Climate Models (GCMs) have a coarse resolution and limitations in the numerical and in the physical treatment. More detailed climate datasets are needed to produce climate projections for countries like Nepal. In this study, we use the climate version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (clWRF3.1.1, developed at the University of Cantabria, Spain), which is a regional climate model (RCM), to provide a more detailed description of future climate scenarios in Nepal. The Atmospheric General Circulation Model, ARPEGE, has been used to provide lateral boundary conditions for the model evaluation. A control simulation from 1970 to 2000, and 4 future climate scenario runs from 2030 to 2060 are created based on these data. The parent domain has a horizontal grid resolution of 48 km, covering the area 68 to 100 degrees East and 1 degree South to 38 degree North. The nested domain has a horizontal grid resolution of 12 km, covering the area 79 to 90 degree East and 25 to 32 degree North. Both domains are run with 37 vertical levels reaching up to 50 hPa. In the clWRF setup, the microphysical scheme used is the WRF Single-Moment 3-class scheme and the cumulus option is the Grell

  3. The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM: a review.

    PubMed

    Rummukainen, Markku; Bergström, Sten; Persson, Gunn; Rodhe, Johan; Tjernström, Michael

    2004-06-01

    The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM, was a 6.5-year national research network for regional climate modeling, regional climate change projections and hydrological impact assessment and information to a wide range of stakeholders. Most of the program activities focussed on the regional climate system of Northern Europe. This led to the establishment of an advanced, coupled atmosphere-ocean-hydrology regional climate model system, a suite of regional climate change projections and progress on relevant data and process studies. These were, in turn, used for information and educational purposes, as a starting point for impact analyses on different societal sectors and provided contributions also to international climate research. PMID:15264594

  4. Detection and Attribution of Regional Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Bala, G; Mirin, A

    2007-01-19

    We developed a high resolution global coupled modeling capability to perform breakthrough studies of the regional climate change. The atmospheric component in our simulation uses a 1{sup o} latitude x 1.25{sup o} longitude grid which is the finest resolution ever used for the NCAR coupled climate model CCSM3. Substantial testing and slight retuning was required to get an acceptable control simulation. The major accomplishment is the validation of this new high resolution configuration of CCSM3. There are major improvements in our simulation of the surface wind stress and sea ice thickness distribution in the Arctic. Surface wind stress and ocean circulation in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current are also improved. Our results demonstrate that the FV version of the CCSM coupled model is a state of the art climate model whose simulation capabilities are in the class of those used for IPCC assessments. We have also provided 1000 years of model data to Scripps Institution of Oceanography to estimate the natural variability of stream flow in California. In the future, our global model simulations will provide boundary data to high-resolution mesoscale model that will be used at LLNL. The mesoscale model would dynamically downscale the GCM climate to regional scale on climate time scales.

  5. GFDL's unified regional-global weather-climate modeling system with variable resolution capability for severe weather predictions and regional climate simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, S. J.

    2015-12-01

    The NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory has been developing a unified regional-global modeling system with variable resolution capabilities that can be used for severe weather predictions (e.g., tornado outbreak events and cat-5 hurricanes) and ultra-high-resolution (1-km) regional climate simulations within a consistent global modeling framework. The fundation of this flexible regional-global modeling system is the non-hydrostatic extension of the vertically Lagrangian dynamical core (Lin 2004, Monthly Weather Review) known in the community as FV3 (finite-volume on the cubed-sphere). Because of its flexability and computational efficiency, the FV3 is one of the final candidates of NOAA's Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS). We have built into the modeling system a stretched (single) grid capability, a two-way (regional-global) multiple nested grid capability, and the combination of the stretched and two-way nests, so as to make convection-resolving regional climate simulation within a consistent global modeling system feasible using today's High Performance Computing System. One of our main scientific goals is to enable simulations of high impact weather phenomena (such as tornadoes, thunderstorms, category-5 hurricanes) within an IPCC-class climate modeling system previously regarded as impossible. In this presentation I will demonstrate that it is computationally feasible to simulate not only super-cell thunderstorms, but also the subsequent genesis of tornadoes using a global model that was originally designed for century long climate simulations. As a unified weather-climate modeling system, we evaluated the performance of the model with horizontal resolution ranging from 1 km to as low as 200 km. In particular, for downscaling studies, we have developed various tests to ensure that the large-scale circulation within the global varaible resolution system is well simulated while at the same time the small-scale can be accurately captured

  6. South Asian Summer Monsoon Dynamics In A High-Resolution Nested Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ashfaq, M.; Ying, S.; Tung, W.; Trapp, R. J.; Gao, X.; Pal, J. S.; Diffenbuagh, N. S.

    2007-12-01

    We present results from a high-resolution climate simulation of the south Asian monsoon using the Abdus Salam Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model (RegCM3). The RegCM3 experiment consists of a 30-year integration from 1961 to 1990 performed at a 25 km grid spacing. Atmospheric boundary conditions for the integration are provided by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Finite Volume General Circulation Model (FVGCM). The ability of RegCM3 to simulate the dynamics of the summer monsoon is tested by comparing a number of fields with observations, including upper and lower level circulation patterns, seasonal mean precipitation and temperature, and variations in tropospheric temperature gradient and easterly vertical shear. Our results show that RegCM3 is able to simulate the dynamical features of the South Asian summer monsoon reasonably well. For instance, the seasonal reversal of tropospheric temperature gradient and strengthening of easterly vertical shear compare well with observations. Furthermore, summer monsoon onset dates over land match reasonably well with the long-term onset-climatology, and the interannual variations in the anomalies of the local Hadley circulation and summer monsoon precipitation are strongly correlated. The primary discrepancies occur over areas of high seasonal precipitation - such as the west coasts of India and Myanmar - where RegCM3 values exceed those found in the observations. Similarly, RegCM3 overestimates precipitation values on the lee side of the Western Ghats. Compared to the driving FVGCM simulation, the RegCM3 simulation shows significant improvement in spatial pattern of seasonal precipitation.

  7. Climatic Effects of Regional Nuclear War

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Oman, Luke D.

    2011-01-01

    We use a modern climate model and new estimates of smoke generated by fires in contemporary cities to calculate the response of the climate system to a regional nuclear war between emerging third world nuclear powers using 100 Hiroshima-size bombs (less than 0.03% of the explosive yield of the current global nuclear arsenal) on cities in the subtropics. We find significant cooling and reductions of precipitation lasting years, which would impact the global food supply. The climate changes are large and longlasting because the fuel loadings in modern cities are quite high and the subtropical solar insolation heats the resulting smoke cloud and lofts it into the high stratosphere, where removal mechanisms are slow. While the climate changes are less dramatic than found in previous "nuclear winter" simulations of a massive nuclear exchange between the superpowers, because less smoke is emitted, the changes seem to be more persistent because of improvements in representing aerosol processes and microphysical/dynamical interactions, including radiative heating effects, in newer global climate system models. The assumptions and calculations that go into these conclusions will be described.

  8. Providing Western Regional Climate Services - Perspectives from the Western Regional Climate Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brown, T. J.; Redmond, K. T.

    2014-12-01

    The western United States faces distinct challenges such as persistent drought, dwindling water resources amidst an expanding population, and climate-sensitive alpine environments. The complex terrain of the region compounds these challenges. The Western Regional Climate Center (WRCC), one of six National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) university-based regional climate centers, has been providing climate services since 1986 that support the unique needs of stakeholders in the mountainous region of the western U.S. This includes meteorological data, tools, and products for thousands of stations across the West, and gridded data products, such as based on PRISM for example, that are used for drought assessment among other needs. WRCC and partners have developed numerous web-based tools and products to support decision-making and research pertinent to the West. Changing climate and variability along with the diverse physical and human geographies of the western U.S. require continuous advancements in climate knowledge and applications development. Examples include the need for tools and model downscaling that support and inform adaptation, mitigation and resiliency planning; web-based analytics that would allow users to interact and explore temporal and spatial data and relationships, and products from new satellite sensors that can provide higher resolution information on soil moisture and vegetation health given the sparseness of in-situ observations for the vastness of the West. This presentation provides an overview of some insights, opportunities and challenges of providing current and future climate services in the West.

  9. Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources.

    PubMed

    Buotte, Polly C; Peterson, David L; McKelvey, Kevin S; Hicke, Jeffrey A

    2016-03-15

    Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability assessment conducted by the US Forest Service. During this assessment, five subregional workshops were held to capture variability in vulnerability and to develop adaptation tactics. At each workshop, participants answered a questionnaire to: 1) identify species, resources, or other information missing from the regional assessment, and 2) describe subregional vulnerability to climate change. Workshop participants divided into six resource groups; here we focus on wildlife resources. Participants identified information missing from the regional assessment and multiple instances of subregional variability in climate change vulnerability. We provide recommendations for improving the process of capturing subregional variability in a regional vulnerability assessment. We propose a revised conceptual framework structured around pathways of climate influence, each with separate rankings for exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. These revisions allow for a quantitative ranking of species, pathways, exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity across subregions. Rankings can be used to direct the development and implementation of future regional research and monitoring programs. The revised conceptual framework is equally applicable as a stand-alone model for assessing climate change vulnerability and as a nested model within a regional assessment for capturing subregional variability in vulnerability. PMID:26796918

  10. Objective calibration of regional climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bellprat, O.; Kotlarski, S.; Lüthi, D.; SchäR, C.

    2012-12-01

    Climate models are subject to high parametric uncertainty induced by poorly confined model parameters of parameterized physical processes. Uncertain model parameters are typically calibrated in order to increase the agreement of the model with available observations. The common practice is to adjust uncertain model parameters manually, often referred to as expert tuning, which lacks objectivity and transparency in the use of observations. These shortcomings often haze model inter-comparisons and hinder the implementation of new model parameterizations. Methods which would allow to systematically calibrate model parameters are unfortunately often not applicable to state-of-the-art climate models, due to computational constraints facing the high dimensionality and non-linearity of the problem. Here we present an approach to objectively calibrate a regional climate model, using reanalysis driven simulations and building upon a quadratic metamodel presented by Neelin et al. (2010) that serves as a computationally cheap surrogate of the model. Five model parameters originating from different parameterizations are selected for the optimization according to their influence on the model performance. The metamodel accurately estimates spatial averages of 2 m temperature, precipitation and total cloud cover, with an uncertainty of similar magnitude as the internal variability of the regional climate model. The non-linearities of the parameter perturbations are well captured, such that only a limited number of 20-50 simulations are needed to estimate optimal parameter settings. Parameter interactions are small, which allows to further reduce the number of simulations. In comparison to an ensemble of the same model which has undergone expert tuning, the calibration yields similar optimal model configurations, but leading to an additional reduction of the model error. The performance range captured is much wider than sampled with the expert-tuned ensemble and the presented

  11. Portuguese wine regions under a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santos, João A.; Fraga, Helder; Malheiro, Aureliano C.; Moutinho-Pereira, José; Jones, Gregory V.; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2014-05-01

    Viticulture and wine production are among the most important sectors of the Portuguese economy. However, as grapevines are strongly affected by weather and climate, climate change may represent an important threat to wine production. The current (1950-2000) and future (2041-2070) bioclimatic conditions in Portugal are discussed by analyzing a number of indices suitable for viticultural zoning, including a categorized bioclimatic index. A two-step method of spatial pattern downscaling is applied in order to achieve a very high spatial resolution (of approximately 1 km) throughout Portugal. Future projections are based on an ensemble of 13 climate model transient experiments, forced by the SRES A1B emission scenario. Results for the recent past are in clear agreement with the current distribution of vineyards and of the established Denomination of Origin regions. Furthermore, the typical climatic conditions associated with each grapevine variety that are currently grown in Portugal are assessed. Under future scenarios, nevertheless, the current conditions are projected to change significantly towards a lower bioclimatic diversity. This can be explained by the projected warming and drying in future decades. The resulting changes in varietal suitability and wine characteristics of each region may thereby bring important challenges for the Portuguese winemaking sector. As such, new measures need to be timely implemented to adapt to these climate change projections and to mitigate their likely detrimental impacts on the Portuguese economy. Acknowledgments: this work is supported by European Union Funds (FEDER/COMPETE - Operational Competitiveness Programme) and by national funds (FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology) under the project ClimVineSafe (PTDC/AGR-ALI/110877/2009).

  12. Climate impacts on northern Canada: regional background.

    PubMed

    Prowse, Terry D; Furgal, Chris; Bonsal, Barrie R; Peters, Daniel L

    2009-07-01

    Understanding the implications of climate change on northern Canada requires a background about the size and diversity of its human and biogeophysical systems. Occupying an area of almost 40% of Canada, with one-third of this contained in Arctic islands, Canada's northern territories consist of a diversity of physical environments unrivaled around the circumpolar north. Major ecozones composed of a range of landforms, climate, vegetation, and wildlife include: Arctic, boreal and taiga cordillera; boreal and taiga plains; taiga shield; and northern and southern Arctic. Although generally characterized by a cold climate, there is an enormous range in air temperature with mean annual values being as high as -5 degrees C in the south to as low as -20 degrees C in the high Arctic islands. A similar contrast characterizes precipitation, which can be > 700 mm y(-1) in some southern alpine regions to as low as 50 mm y(-1) over islands of the high Arctic. Major freshwater resources are found within most northern ecozones, varying from large glaciers or ice caps and lakes to extensive wetlands and peat lands. Most of the North's renewable water, however, is found within its major river networks and originates in more southerly headwaters. Ice covers characterize the freshwater systems for multiple months of the year while permafrost prevails in various forms, dominating the terrestrial landscape. The marine environment, which envelops the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, is dominated by seasonal to multiyear sea ice often several meters thick that plays a key role in the regional climate. Almost two-thirds of northern Canadian communities are located along coastlines with the entire population being just over 100 000. Most recent population growth has been dominated by an expansion of nonaboriginals, primarily the result of resource development and the growth of public administration. The economies of northern communities, however, remain quite mixed with traditional land

  13. Ant-nest ichnofossils in honeycomb calcretes, Neogene Ogallala Formation, High Plains region of western Kansas, U.S.A.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Smith, J.J.; Platt, B.F.; Ludvigson, Greg A.; Thomasson, J.R.

    2011-01-01

    Two new ant-nest trace fossils are described from calcic sandy paleosols of the Neogene Ogallala Formation in western Kansas. The ichnofossils are preserved within and below calcrete beds weathering in positive relief as carbonate-filled casts or as cavities in negative relief. Daimoniobarax ichnogenus nov. is established for burrow systems composed of vertically tiered, horizontally oriented pancake-shaped chambers connected by predominantly vertical and cylindrical shafts ~. 0.8. cm in diameter. Ichnospecies of Daimoniobarax are differentiated based on differences in the plan view outline of chambers, shaft orientation, and junctions between chambers and shafts.Daimoniobarax nephroides ichnospecies nov. is composed of an ~. 24-76. cm long vertical sequence of distinctly lobed chambers (~. 2-20. cm wide and ~. 1. cm high) arranged along sinuous to helical shafts. Chamber shape in plan view ranges from small teardrops to larger kidney- and U-shaped forms. Shafts intersect at chamber edges such that chambers appear to bud from the central shafts. Daimoniobarax nephroides is most similar to the nests of extant seed-harvester ants of the New World genus Pogonomyrmex. Such ants are specialized granivores and prefer sandy soils in arid to semi-arid grassland and desert regions.Daimoniobarax tschinkeli ichnospecies nov. is ~. 30-80. cm in vertical extent. Chambers (~. 2-30. cm wide and ~. 1. cm high) are circular to elongate or pseudopodial in plan view. Vertical shafts are straight to slightly sinuous and intersect most often toward the center of the chambers. The generalized architecture of D. tschinkeli is similar to that of the nests or nest portions of several extant ant genera, though it does not closely resemble any known modern nest.Ant ichnofossils provide valuable information on hidden biodiversity, paleohydrologic regimes, paleopedogenic processes, and paleoclimate during the time of nest occupation. Depth-related changes in chamber size and vertical spacing

  14. Climate Change and Climate Variability in the Latin American Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magrin, G. O.; Gay Garcia, C.; Cruz Choque, D.; Gimenez-Sal, J. C.; Moreno, A. R.; Nagy, G. J.; Nobre, C.; Villamizar, A.

    2007-05-01

    Over the past three decades LA was subjected to several climate-related impacts due to increased El Niño occurrences. Two extremely intense episodes of El Niño and other increased climate extremes happened during this period contributing greatly to augment the vulnerability of human systems to natural disasters. In addition to weather and climate, the main drivers of the increased vulnerability are demographic pressure, unregulated urban growth, poverty and rural migration, low investment in infrastructure and services, and problems in inter-sector coordination. As well, increases in temperature and increases/decreases in precipitation observed during the last part of 20th century have yet led to intensification of glaciers melting, increases in floods/droughts and forest fires frequency, increases in morbidity and mortality, increases in plant diseases incidence; lost of biodiversity, reduction in dairy cattle production, and problems with hydropower generation, highly affecting LA human system. For the end of the 21st century, the projected mean warming for LA ranges from 1 to 7.5ºC and the frequency of weather and climate extremes could increase. Additionally, deforestation is projected to continue leading to a reduction of 25 percent in Amazonia forest in 2020 and 40 percent in 2050. Soybeans planted area in South America could increase by 55 percent by 2020 enhancing aridity/desertification in many of the already water- stressed regions. By 2050 LA population is likely to be 50 percent larger than in 2000, and migration from the country sides to the cities will continue. In the near future, these predicted changes are very likely to severely affect a number of ecosystems and sectors distribution; b) Disappearing most tropical glaciers; c) Reducing water availability and hydropower generation; d) Increasing desertification and aridity; e) Severely affecting people, resources and economic activities in coastal areas; f) Increasing crop's pests and diseases

  15. Program for Arctic Regional Climate Assessment (PARCA)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gogineni, Sivaprasad; Thomas, Robert H.; Abdalati, Waleed (Editor)

    1999-01-01

    The Program for Arctic Regional Climate Assessment (PARCA) is a NASA-sponsored initiative with the prime objective of understanding the mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet. In October 1998, PARCA investigators met to review activities of the previous year, assess the program's progress, and plan future investigations directed at accomplishing that objective. Some exciting results were presented and discussed, including evidence of dramatic thinning of the ice sheet near the southeastern coast. Details of the investigations and many of the accomplishments are given in this report, but major highlights are given in the Executive Summary of the report.

  16. The urban impact on the regional climate of Dresden

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sändig, B.; Renner, E.

    2010-09-01

    The principal objective of this research is to clarify the impact of urban elements such as buildings and streets on the regional climate and air quality in the framework of the BMBF-project "Regionales Klimaanpassungsprogramm f¨ur die Modellregion Dresden" (REGKLAM). Drawing on the example of Dresden this work explores how the presence of cities influences the atmospheric flow and the characteristics of the boundary layer. Persuing this target, an urban surface exchange parameterisation module (Martilli et al., 2002) was implemented in a high resolution version of the COSMO model, the forecast model of the German Weather Service (DWD). Using a mesoscale model for this regional climate study implies the advantage of embedding the focused area in a realistic large scale situation via downscaling by means of one way nesting and allows to simulate the urban impact for different IPCC-szenarios. The urban module is based on the assumption that a city could be represented by a bunch of "urban classes". Each urban class is characterised by specific properties such as typical street directions or probability of finding a building in a special height. Based on urban structure data of Dresden (vector shape-files containing the outlines of all buildings and the respective heights) an automated method of extracting the relevant geometrical input parameters for the urban module was developed. By means of this model setup we performed case studies, in which we investigate the interactions between the city structure and the meteorological variables with regard to special synoptical situations such as the Bohemian wind, a typical flow pattern of cold air, sourced from the Bohemian Basin, in the Elbe Valley, which acts then like a wind channel. Another focal point is formed by the investigation of different types of artificial cities ranging from densely builtup areas to suburban areas in order to illuminating the impact of the city type on the dynamical and thermal properties of

  17. Climate services within a regional climate adaptation project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hänsel, Stephanie; Heidenreich, Majana; Franke, Johannes; Riedel, Kathrin; Matschullat, Jörg; Bernhofer, Christian

    2013-04-01

    In recent years the demand for adapting to climate variability and change became more and more obvious. Thus a multitude of projects dealing with climate adaptation strategies and concrete measures was launched. Commonly, developing adaptation options is based on downscaled climate model outputs. These outputs have to be provided within the projects, but just providing the data is far from being sufficient. Obstacles connected with using climate projections for climate adaptation include uncertainties and bandwidths of climate projections and the inability of models to describe parameters such as extreme weather events, which are particularly relevant for many climate adaptation decisions. Climate scientists know that model outputs are no climate data and cannot be treated as observational data were treated in the past. Still, many practitioners demand precise values for future climate to replace past CLINO-values and to run their applications. Thus, climate adaptation involves adapting the instruments and processes used in deriving climate-related decisions. Communicating the challenges arising from this need in rethinking common procedures is of outstanding significance for any successful adaptation practice. Dealing with uncertainties of climate projections is a constant necessity, since they are always based on several simplifications, parameterisations and assumptions, e.g., on the future socioeconomic development or on climate sensitivity. Future climate should thus be communicated in bandwidths. Working with just one scenario, one climate model, or even working with ensemble means is risky as it evokes a higher than appropriate perceived confidence in the results. It encourages using familiar tools in processing climate information, rather than caution. Consequences are suboptimal adaption and misallocation of finances. We encourage working with bandwidths and testing climate adaptation options against a broad range of possible future climates. Climate

  18. Two-Way Integration of WRF and CCSM for Regional Climate Simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Lin, Wuyin; Zhang, Minghua; He, Juanxiong; Jiao, Xiangmin; Chen, Ying; Colle, Brian; Vogelmann, Andrew M.; Liu, Ping; Khairoutdinov, Marat; Leung, Ruby

    2013-07-12

    Under the support of the DOE award DE-SC0004670, we have successfully developed an integrated climate modeling system by nesting Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model within the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and the ensuing new generation Community Earth System Model (CESM). The integrated WRF/CESM system is intended as one method of global climate modeling with regional simulation capabilities. It allows interactive dynamical regional downscaling in the computational flow of present or future global climate simulations. This capability substantially simplifies the process of dynamical downscaling by avoiding massive intermediate model outputs at high frequency that are typically required for offline regional downscaling. The inline coupling also has the advantage of higher temporal resolution for the interaction between regional and global model components. With the aid of the inline coupling, a capability has also been developed to ingest other global climate simulations (by CESM or other models), which otherwise may not have necessary intermediate outputs for regional downscaling, to realize their embedded regional details. It is accomplished by relaxing the global atmospheric state of the integrated model to that of the source simulations with an appropriate time scale. This capability has the potential to open a new venue for ensemble regional climate simulations using a single modeling system. Furthermore, this new modeling system provides an effective modeling framework for the studies of physical and dynamical feedbacks of regional weather phenomena to the large scale circulation. The projected uses of this capability include the research of up-scaling effect of regional weather system, and its use as an alternative physical representation of sub-scale processes in coarser-resolution climate models.

  19. Climate programs update: USDA Southwest Regional Climate Hub update

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    PROGRAM OVERVIEW: The overarching goal of the USDA SW Climate Hub is to assist farmers, ranchers and foresters in addressing the effects of climate change including prolonged drought, increased insect outbreaks and severe wildfires. In the first year of operations, the SW Climate Hub (est. Februa...

  20. Climate Dynamics of Regional US Southeastern drought

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arrigo, J.

    2008-12-01

    The phenomena of droughts both regional and continental have received considerable attention from both science and policy. Understanding the larger scale dynamics of these events is critical to improving predictability, management and mitigation strategies. The history of drought in the United States shows both long (multi-decadal) and short (seasonal or yearly) droughts in various regions. Some of the most severe droughts, such as those with the largest economic losses or that have received the most attention both from the scientific and broader communities have occurred in the Midwest/Great Plains (e.g. the "Dust Bowl" years, the 1988 drought) and generally correlate with continent-wide anomalies. The Southeast region of the US, while generally having a more humid temperature climate than the rest of the country, also is subject to periods of drought conditions. In this study we analyze long term records of PDSI in the southeastern United States. While some occurrences correlate with larger continental scale droughts, many severe southeastern droughts occur during a synoptic pattern correlating with wetter conditions through the greater Midwest, have a seasonal pattern different than larger continental scale anomalies, and show correlations with patterns in Atlantic tropical activity. While winter and spring deficits may initiate a drought, we find a proportionally larger decrease in summertime precipitation during severe drought periods. Some of this decrease may be related to the contribution of tropical systems, which increases in the periods following droughts. We suggest that the dynamics of drought in this region differ from the larger US pattern, and particularly need to account for the interaction between continental and tropical contributions. With an increasing population and areas of high agricultural productivity, we argue this region deserves further attention from both the scientific and larger community, that understanding these dynamics will

  1. Regional Collaborations to Combat Climate Change: The Climate Science Centers as Strategies for Climate Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morelli, T. L.; Palmer, R. N.

    2014-12-01

    The Department of Interior Northeast Climate Science Center (NE CSC) is part of a federal network of eight Climate Science Centers created to provide scientific information, tools, and techniques that managers and other parties interested in land, water, wildlife and cultural resources can use to anticipate, monitor, and adapt to climate change. The consortium approach taken by the CSCs allows the academic side of the Centers to gather expertise across departments, disciplines, and even institutions. This interdisciplinary approach is needed for successfully meeting regional needs for climate impact assessment, adaptive management, education, and stakeholder outreach. Partnership with the federal government facilitates interactions with the key on-the-ground stakeholders who are able to operationalize the results and conclusions of that research, monitor the progress of management actions, and provide feedback to refine future methodology and decisions as new information on climate impacts is discovered. For example, NE CSC researchers are analyzing the effect of climate change on the timing and volume of seasonal and annual streamflows and the concomitant effects on ecological and cultural resources; developing techniques to monitor tree range dynamics as affected by natural disturbances which can enable adaptation of projected climate impacts; studying the effects of changes in the frequency and magnitude of drought and stream temperature on brook trout habitats, spatial distribution and population persistence; and conducting assessments of northeastern regional climate projections and high-resolution downscaling. Project methods are being developed in collaboration with stakeholders and results are being shared broadly with federal, state, and other partners to implement and refine effective and adaptive management actions.

  2. Regional climate change, ecosystem responses, and climate feedbacks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cook, Benjamin Issac

    2007-12-01

    I use empirical/statistical models and physically based general circulation models to assess the capacity for the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to influence terrestrial ecosystems, and the potential for those ecosystems to feedback to the climate system. AO warming leads to modest reductions in Eurasian carbon stocks; ˜17 Pg carbon are lost to the atmosphere, primarily from increased soil decomposition. Precipitation reductions in southern Africa associated with increased frequency of El Nino events lead to a reduction in tree cover and expansion of grasslands in the north and a reduction in grass cover in drier areas. Here half the carbon cycle changes are driven by the loss of tree cover, leading to a net loss of ˜5 Pg of carbon to the atmosphere. Over southern Africa, positive soil moisture anomalies lead to reduced precipitation through enhanced subsidence and reduced moisture convergence. Higher snow cover alone in Eurasia leads to minor albedo increases and moderate localized cooling (3°-5°C), mostly at very high latitudes (>70°N) and during the spring season. When vegetation is allowed to interact, increased snow cover leads to southward retreat of boreal vegetation, widespread cooling, and persistent snow cover over much of the boreal region during the boreal summer, with cold anomalies of up to 15°C. In southern Africa, the feedback experiments suggest a negative feedback between soil moisture and precipitation over the same area, implying this region may be resistant to externally forced changes in precipitation. In Eurasia, a persistent high phase of the AO leads to winter warming, but the feedback response is complicated. Warming during this season has been associated with increased snowfall, which could increase snow cover and albedo, countering the AO warming. Conversely, increased temperatures could lead to increased snow melting and decreased albedo, amplifying the AO warming.

  3. Regional climate simulations over Vietnam using the WRF model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raghavan, S. V.; Vu, M. T.; Liong, S. Y.

    2015-07-01

    We present an analysis of the present-day (1961-1990) regional climate simulations over Vietnam. The regional climate model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) was driven by the global reanalysis ERA40. The performance of the regional climate model in simulating the observed climate is evaluated with a main focus on precipitation and temperature. The regional climate model was able to reproduce the observed spatial patterns of the climate, although with some biases. The model also performed better in reproducing the extreme precipitation and the interannual variability. Overall, the WRF model was able to simulate the main regional signatures of climate variables, seasonal cycles, and frequency distributions. This study is an evaluation of the present-day climate simulations of a regional climate model at a resolution of 25 km. Given that dynamical downscaling has become common for studying climate change and its impacts, the study highlights that much more improvements in modeling might be necessary to yield realistic simulations of climate at high resolutions before they can be used for impact studies at a local scale. The need for a dense network of observations is also realized as observations at high resolutions are needed when it comes to evaluations and validations of models at sub-regional and local scales.

  4. Added value of regional climate modeling over areas characterized by complex terrain—Precipitation over the Alps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Torma, Csaba; Giorgi, Filippo; Coppola, Erika

    2015-05-01

    We present an analysis of the added value (AV) of downscaling via regional climate model (RCM) nesting with respect to the driving global climate models (GCMs). We analyze ensembles of driving GCM and nested RCM (two resolutions, 0.44° and 0.11°) simulations for the late 20th and late 21st centuries from the CMIP5, EURO-CORDEX, and MED-CORDEX experiments, with a focus on the Alpine region. Different metrics of AV are investigated, measuring aspects of precipitation where substantial AV can be expected in mountainous terrains: spatial pattern of mean precipitation, daily precipitation intensity distribution, and daily precipitation extremes tails. Comparison with a high-quality, fine-scale (5 km) gridded observational data set shows substantial AV of RCM downscaling for all metrics selected, and results are mostly improved compared to the driving GCMs also when the RCM fields are upscaled at the scale of the GCM resolution. We also find consistent improvements in the high-resolution (0.11°) versus medium-resolution (0.44°) RCM simulations. Finally, we find that the RCM downscaling substantially modulates the GCM-produced precipitation change signal in future climate projections, particularly in terms of fine-scale spatial pattern associated with the complex topography of the region. Our results thus point to the important role that high-resolution nested RCMs can play in the study of climate change over areas characterized by complex topographical features.

  5. Characterizing Uncertainty for Regional Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Decisions

    SciTech Connect

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Moss, Richard H.; Rice, Jennie S.; Scott, Michael J.

    2011-09-30

    This white paper describes the results of new research to develop an uncertainty characterization process to help address the challenges of regional climate change mitigation and adaptation decisions.

  6. The role of regional climate model setup in simulating two extreme precipitation events in the European Alpine region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Awan, Nauman Khurshid; Gobiet, Andreas; Suklitsch, Martin

    2015-01-01

    In this study we have investigated the role of domain settings and model's physics in simulating two extreme precipitation events. Four regional climate models, all driven with a re-analysis dataset were used to create an ensemble of 61 high-resolution simulations by varying physical parameterization schemes, domain sizes, nudging and nesting techniques. The two discussed events are three-day time slices taken from approximately 15-months long climate simulations. The results show that dynamical downscaling significantly improves the spatial characteristics such as correlation, variability as well as location and intensity of maximum precipitation. Spatial variability, which is underestimated by most of the simulations can be improved by choosing suitable vertical resolution, convective and microphysics scheme. The results further suggest that for studies focusing on extreme precipitation events relatively small domains or nudging could be advantageous. However, a final conclusion on this issue would be premature, since only two extreme precipitation events are considered.

  7. The role of regional climate model setup in simulating two extreme precipitation events in the European Alpine region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Awan, Nauman Khurshid; Gobiet, Andreas; Suklitsch, Martin

    2014-09-01

    In this study we have investigated the role of domain settings and model's physics in simulating two extreme precipitation events. Four regional climate models, all driven with a re-analysis dataset were used to create an ensemble of 61 high-resolution simulations by varying physical parameterization schemes, domain sizes, nudging and nesting techniques. The two discussed events are three-day time slices taken from approximately 15-months long climate simulations. The results show that dynamical downscaling significantly improves the spatial characteristics such as correlation, variability as well as location and intensity of maximum precipitation. Spatial variability, which is underestimated by most of the simulations can be improved by choosing suitable vertical resolution, convective and microphysics scheme. The results further suggest that for studies focusing on extreme precipitation events relatively small domains or nudging could be advantageous. However, a final conclusion on this issue would be premature, since only two extreme precipitation events are considered.

  8. The roles of bias-correction and resolution in regional climate simulations of summer extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    PaiMazumder, Debasish; Done, James M.

    2015-09-01

    The suitability of dynamical downscaling in producing high-resolution climate scenarios for impact assessments is limited by the quality of the driving data and regional climate model (RCM) error. Multiple RCMs driven by a single global climate model simulation of current climate show a reduction in bias compared to the driving data, and the remaining bias motivates exploration of bias correction and higher RCM resolution. The merits of bias correcting the mean climate of the driving data (boundary bias correction) versus bias correcting the mean of the RCM output data are explored and compared to model resolution sensitivity. This analysis focuses on the simulation of summer temperature and precipitation extremes using a single RCM, the Nested Regional Climate Model (NRCM). The NRCM has a general cool bias for hot and cold extremes, a wet bias for wet extremes and a dry bias for dry extremes. Both bias corrections generally reduced the bias and overall error with some indication that boundary bias correction provided greater benefits than bias correcting the mean of the RCM output data, particularly for precipitation. High resolution tended not to lead to further improvements, though further work is needed using multiple resolution evaluation datasets and convection permitting resolution simulations to comprehensively assess the value of high resolution.

  9. A Variable Resolution Stretched Grid General Circulation Model: Regional Climate Simulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.; Takacs, Lawrence L.; Govindaraju, Ravi C.; Suarez, Max J.

    2000-01-01

    The development of and results obtained with a variable resolution stretched-grid GCM for the regional climate simulation mode, are presented. A global variable resolution stretched- grid used in the study has enhanced horizontal resolution over the U.S. as the area of interest The stretched-grid approach is an ideal tool for representing regional to global scale interaction& It is an alternative to the widely used nested grid approach introduced over a decade ago as a pioneering step in regional climate modeling. The major results of the study are presented for the successful stretched-grid GCM simulation of the anomalous climate event of the 1988 U.S. summer drought- The straightforward (with no updates) two month simulation is performed with 60 km regional resolution- The major drought fields, patterns and characteristics such as the time averaged 500 hPa heights precipitation and the low level jet over the drought area. appear to be close to the verifying analyses for the stretched-grid simulation- In other words, the stretched-grid GCM provides an efficient down-scaling over the area of interest with enhanced horizontal resolution. It is also shown that the GCM skill is sustained throughout the simulation extended to one year. The developed and tested in a simulation mode stretched-grid GCM is a viable tool for regional and subregional climate studies and applications.

  10. Simulation of Anomalous Regional Climate Events with a Variable Resolution Stretched Grid GCM

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.

    1999-01-01

    The stretched-grid approach provides an efficient down-scaling and consistent interactions between global and regional scales due to using one variable-resolution model for integrations. It is a workable alternative to the widely used nested-grid approach introduced over a decade ago as a pioneering step in regional climate modeling. A variable-resolution General Circulation Model (GCM) employing a stretched grid, with enhanced resolution over the US as the area of interest, is used for simulating two anomalous regional climate events, the US summer drought of 1988 and flood of 1993. The special mode of integration using a stretched-grid GCM and data assimilation system is developed that allows for imitating the nested-grid framework. The mode is useful for inter-comparison purposes and for underlining the differences between these two approaches. The 1988 and 1993 integrations are performed for the two month period starting from mid May. Regional resolutions used in most of the experiments is 60 km. The major goal and the result of the study is obtaining the efficient down-scaling over the area of interest. The monthly mean prognostic regional fields for the stretched-grid integrations are remarkably close to those of the verifying analyses. Simulated precipitation patterns are successfully verified against gauge precipitation observations. The impact of finer 40 km regional resolution is investigated for the 1993 integration and an example of recovering subregional precipitation is presented. The obtained results show that the global variable-resolution stretched-grid approach is a viable candidate for regional and subregional climate studies and applications.

  11. Regional Climate Studies with Variable-Resolution Stretched-Grid GCMs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    A variable resolution GCM using a global stretched grid with fine resolution over the area(s) of interest, is a viable new approach to regional and subregional climate studies and applications. It is an alternative to the widely used nested grid approach introduced a decade ago as a pioneering step in regional climate modeling. The first version of the SG-GCM based on the GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) GCM using a finite-difference approximation, has been developed and thoroughly tested during the last few years. Successful simulations have been performed with the SG-GCM for the anomalous regional climate events of the U.S. 1988 summer drought and 1993 summer flood. They have shown the practical feasibility of the SG-approach for regional climate modeling. The GEOS SG-DAS (Data Assimilation System) incorporating the SG-GCM has also been developed and tested. The assimilated regional fields and diagnostics are used for validating the SG-GCM regional simulations. Two new SG-GCMs are being developed. The first is the SG-version of the new NASANCAR FV-GCM (with the finite-volume (FV) dynamics), and the second is the SG-version of the new GCM with spectral-element dynamics. Both GCMs use the WAR CCM4 physics. Using these advanced numerics will provide increased computational efficiency for the new the SG-GCMs, and will allow us to employ more flexible stretching strategies beneficial for the efficient regional down-scaling. The major current developments are focused on: simulating the 1997-1999 (and beyond) ENSO cycle and related monsoonal circulations, with enhanced regional resolution; studying intraseasonal and interannual regional climate variability for the extended multiyear (AMIP-type) SG-GCM simulations; and studying the impact of ensemble integrations.

  12. Regional-Scale Climate Change: Observations and Model Simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Bradley, Raymond S; Diaz, Henry F

    2010-12-14

    This collaborative proposal addressed key issues in understanding the Earth's climate system, as highlighted by the U.S. Climate Science Program. The research focused on documenting past climatic changes and on assessing future climatic changes based on suites of global and regional climate models. Geographically, our emphasis was on the mountainous regions of the world, with a particular focus on the Neotropics of Central America and the Hawaiian Islands. Mountain regions are zones where large variations in ecosystems occur due to the strong climate zonation forced by the topography. These areas are particularly susceptible to changes in critical ecological thresholds, and we conducted studies of changes in phonological indicators based on various climatic thresholds.

  13. Does Nudging Squelch the Extremes in Regional Climate Modeling?

    EPA Science Inventory

    An important question in regional climate downscaling is whether to constrain (nudge) the interior of the limited-area domain toward the larger-scale driving fields. Prior research has demonstrated that interior nudging can increase the skill of regional climate predictions origin...

  14. Climate variability and change: a perspective from the oceania region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beer, Tom

    2014-12-01

    This brief review identifies seven key science questions in relation to climate variability and change and examines recent research within the Australian and Pacific context: 1. How do the key processes controlling climate variability and predictability operate? 2. What are the nature and causes of regional climate anomalies, past variations in regional climate and extreme weather events and how will they change in the future? 3. How can we provide improved seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions? 4. What are the best projection methods? 5. What are the sea-level changes now and in the future; and how will these impact the coasts? 6. How to have significant benefits on climate service delivery and environmental management? 7. What are the best methods for assessing climate change risks, vulnerability and adaptation options?

  15. Impacts of Climate Change on Grain Sorghum Yield in the Ogallala Aquifer Region, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paul, G.; Anandhi, A.; Prasad, P.; Staggenborg, S. A.; Gowda, P. H.; Rice, C. W.

    2011-12-01

    The Ogallala aquifer region consists of 232 counties spread over 8 states of United States is facing declining water levels and deteriorating water quality which in turn affects the crop production in these counties. Coupled with the water stress, the changing climatic conditions also has adverse effects on crop production. The objectives of this study was to generate the future scenarios of grain sorghum production in the Ogallala region for plausible future climates. Three RCM's participating in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP), used in this study are Canadian RCM (CRCM), Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) and the Hadley Regional Model (HRM3). The RCMs were nested within the AOGCMs for the current period 1971-2000 and for the future period 2041-2070 for A2 emission scenario. Grain sorghum yield were simulated across the study region using the CERES-Sorghum model program available in the DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) crop simulation model suite. Daily data on rainfall, solar radiation, maximum and minimum temperature generated from the RCM were used as meteorological inputs in the current analysis. Grain sorghum hybrid 'Pioneer 8333' planting date and density were set at 5 June and 160,000 plants per hectare respectively. Simulation results show a decrease in the yield of grain sorghum for A2 emission scenario without considering effects of elevated carbon dioxide and changes in genetics. Results of the study provide critical information needed to help decision/policy makers to device long-term strategies to cope with impacts of climate change and variability on water use and crop production for the Ogallala aquifer region.

  16. Nesting ecology and reproductive rate of the red-winged blackbird in tidal marshes of the upper Chesapeake Bay region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Meanley, B.; Webb, J.S.

    1963-01-01

    The nesting ecology and reproductive rate of the polygynous red-winged blackbird, Agelaius phoeniceus, were studied in the tidal marshes of Maryland during the period of 1958 through 1961. Sixteen nesting colonies were located in six major marsh communities of the Eastern Shore and were visited approximately twice a week from late April to mid-August. The average clutch size for 537 clutches was 3.3 eggs, with a range of 2 to 5 eggs. The ratio of territorial males to nesting females was 1:1.9. There was direct evidence of double broods by four females. The average number of young produced was 4.2 per breeding female or 8.1 per breeding male. Nesting success for the total of 675 active nests was 57%, with a range from 38% to 69% in the colonies. Robust plants that held constant form throughout the nesting season supported 95% of the nests, and the success of these nests was 58%; in contrast, non-robust plants supported only 5% of the nests, and success of this group of nests was only 26%. Nesting success varied with height from ground: 45% for nests less than 2 feet from the ground, 55% for those 2 to 4 feet, and 62% for those more than 4 feet. Histories of 749 nests were summarized by stages: 749 newly built, 675 with eggs, 424 with nestlings, and 388 with fledging young.

  17. Climate change and health research in the Eastern Mediterranean Region.

    PubMed

    Habib, Rima R; Zein, Kareem El; Ghanawi, Joly

    2010-06-01

    Anthropologically induced climate change, caused by an increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, is an emerging threat to human health. Consequences of climate change may affect the prevalence of various diseases and environmental and social maladies that affect population health. In this article, we reviewed the literature on climate change and health in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. This region already faces numerous humanitarian crises, from conflicts to natural hazards and a high burden of disease. Climate change is likely to aggravate these emergencies, necessitating a strengthening of health systems and capacities in the region. However, the existing literature on climate change from the region is sparse and informational gaps stand in the way of regional preparedness and adaptation. Further research is needed to assess climatic changes and related health impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. Such knowledge will allow countries to identify preparedness vulnerabilities, evaluate capacity to adapt to climate change, and develop adaptation strategies to allay the health impacts of climate change. PMID:20658168

  18. Site selection and nest survival of the Bar-Headed Goose (Anser indicus) on the Mongolian Plateau

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Batbayar, Nyambayar; Takekawa, John Y.; Natsagdorj, Tseveenmyadag; Spragens, Kyle A.; Xiao, Xiamgming

    2014-01-01

    Waterbirds breeding on the Mongolian Plateau in Central Asia must find suitable wetland areas for nesting in a semiarid region characterized by highly variable water conditions. The first systematic nesting study of a waterbird dependent on this region for breeding was conducted on the Bar-headed Goose (Anser indicus). The purpose of this study was to document Bar-headed Goose nesting locations, characterize nests and nesting strategies, and estimate daily nest survival (n = 235 nests) from eight areas of west-central Mongolia across three summers (2009–2011) using a modified Mayfield estimator. Bar-headed Goose daily nest survival ranged from 0.94 to 0.98, with a 3-year average nest success of 42.6% during incubation. Bar-headed Geese were found to primarily nest on isolated pond and lake islands as previously reported, but were also documented regularly, though less frequently, along rocky cliffs in several regions of west-central Mongolia. Daily nest survival was higher for cliff nests than for island nests. Information-theoretic models indicated that nest survival decreased with nest age and varied annually with changing environmental conditions. Results of this study suggest that while Bar-headed Geese primarily rely on nesting island sites these sites may be more susceptible to anthropogenic disturbance and predation events influenced by seasonal variation in environmental conditions, and that higher daily nest survival values documented for the less frequent cliff nest strategy may provide an important alternative strategy during poor island nest success years. Thus, conservation efforts for this and other waterbird species in the semiarid region should be focused on conserving nesting islands and protecting them from disturbance in areas of high livestock densities experiencing a rapidly warming climate.

  19. Strengthening Climate Services Capabilities and Regional Engagement at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shea, E.

    2008-12-01

    The demand for sector-based climate information is rapidly expanding. In order to support this demand, it is crucial that climate information is managed in an effective, efficient, and user-conscious manner. NOAA's National Climatic Data Center is working closely with numerous partners to develop a comprehensive interface that is authoritative, accessible, and responsive to a variety of sectors, stakeholders, and other users. This talk will explore these dynamics and activities, with additional perspectives on climate services derived from the regional and global experiences of the NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental Applications (IDEA) Center in the Pacific. The author will explore the importance of engaging partners and customers in the development, implementation and emergence of a national climate service program. The presentation will draw on the author's experience in climate science and risk management programs in the Pacific, development of regional and national climate services programs and insights emerging from climate services development efforts in NCDC. In this context, the author will briefly discuss some of guiding principles for effective climate services and applications including: - Early and continuous dialogue, partnership and collaboration with users/customers; - Establishing and sustaining trust and credibility through a program of shared learning and joint problem- solving; - Understanding the societal context for climate risk management and using a problem-focused approach to the development of products and services; - Addressing information needs along a continuum of timescales from extreme events to long-term change; and - Embedding education, outreach and communications activities as critical program elements in effective climate services. By way of examples, the author will reference lessons learned from: early Pacific Island climate forecast applications and climate assessment activities; the implementation of the Pacific Climate

  20. Identification of Aspergillus fumigatus and Related Species by Nested PCR Targeting Ribosomal DNA Internal Transcribed Spacer Regions

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Jun; Kong, Fanrong; Li, Ruoyu; Wang, Xiaohong; Wan, Zhe; Wang, Duanli

    2001-01-01

    Aspergillus fumigatus is the most common species that causes invasive aspergillosis. In order to identify A. fumigatus, partial ribosomal DNA (rDNA) from two to six strains of five different Aspergillus species was sequenced. By comparing sequence data from GenBank, we designed specific primer pairs targeting rDNA internal transcribed spacer (ITS) regions of A. fumigatus. A nested PCR method for identification of other A. fumigatus-related species was established by using the primers. To evaluate the specificities and sensitivities of those primers, 24 isolates of A. fumigatus and variants, 8 isolates of Aspergillus nidulans, 7 isolates of Aspergillus flavus and variants, 8 isolates of Aspergillus terreus, 9 isolates of Aspergillus niger, 1 isolate each of Aspergillus parasiticus, Aspergillus penicilloides, Aspergillus versicolor, Aspergillus wangduanlii, Aspergillus qizutongii, Aspergillus beijingensis, and Exophiala dermatitidis, 4 isolates of Candida, 4 isolates of bacteria, and human DNA were used. The nested PCR method specifically identified the A. fumigatus isolates and closely related species and showed a high degree of sensitivity. Additionally, four A. fumigatus strains that were recently isolated from our clinic were correctly identified by this method. Our results demonstrate that these primers are useful for the identification of A. fumigatus and closely related species in culture and suggest further studies for the identification of Aspergillus fumigatus species in clinical specimens. PMID:11376067

  1. Nesting Instincts.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Greenman, Geri

    2003-01-01

    Describes an art project where beginning drawing students used values and chiaroscuro techniques to draw bird nests. Explains how the students observed the nest that was displayed in the art classroom. Discusses the steps involved in creating the artworks. (CMK)

  2. Regional Wave Climates along Eastern Boundary Currents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Semedo, Alvaro; Soares, Pedro

    2016-04-01

    Two types of wind-generated gravity waves coexist at the ocean surface: wind sea and swell. Wind sea waves are waves under growing process. These young growing waves receive energy from the overlaying wind and are strongly coupled to the local wind field. Waves that propagate away from their generation area and no longer receive energy input from the local wind are called swell. Swell waves can travel long distances across entire ocean basins. A qualitative study of the ocean waves from a locally vs. remotely generation perspective is important, since the air sea interaction processes is strongly modulated by waves and vary accordingly to the prevalence of wind sea or swell waves in the area. A detailed climatology of wind sea and swell waves along eastern boundary currents (EBC; California Current, Canary Current, in the Northern Hemisphere, and Humboldt Current, Benguela Current, and Western Australia Current, in the Southern Hemisphere), based on the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ERA-Interim reanalysis will be presented. The wind regime along EBC varies significantly from winter to summer. The high summer wind speeds along EBC generate higher locally generated wind sea waves, whereas lower winter wind speeds in these areas, along with stronger winter extratropical storms far away, lead to a predominance of swell waves there. In summer, the coast parallel winds also interact with coastal headlands, increasing the wind speed through a process called "expansion fan", which leads to an increase in the height of locally generated waves downwind of capes and points. Hence the spatial patterns of the wind sea or swell regional wave fields are shown to be different from the open ocean along EBC, due to coastal geometry and fetch dimensions. Swell waves will be shown to be considerably more prevalent and to carry more energy in winter along EBC, while in summer locally generated wind sea waves are either more comparable to swell waves or

  3. [Research on climatic factors of ecology suitability regionalization of atractylodis].

    PubMed

    Tan, Zhe-tian; Wang, Hao; Zhu, Shou-dong; Yan, Yu-ping; Guo, Lan-ping; Zheng, Yu-guang

    2015-11-01

    Through study on the correlation between atractylodis lactones ingredient content and climatic factors, we research regionalization from climatic of five main producing provinces of the country, in order to provide a scientific basis for atractylodis' conscious cultivation. By sampling from 40 origins which from five main producing provinces of the country, we use SPSS to analysis variation of atractylodis lactones ingredient content in different conditions of climatic factors and the effect of each factors. Then according to the relationship between atractylodis lactones ingredient content and climatic factors, we use ArcGIS to conduct ecological suitability regionalization based on climatic factors. The most suitable climatic condition for cultivation of atractylodis: the wettest month precipitation 220-230 mm, the warmest average temperature 25 degrees C, the average temperature of driest season 10 degrees C. PMID:27071251

  4. Assessing regional and warming level dependent differences in climate impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wohland, Jan; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Lissner, Tabea; Fischer, Erich M.; Frieler, Katja

    2015-04-01

    Differentiation between climate impacts at different levels of warming is of great relevance for scientists and policy makers. Knowledge of the consequences of different development and temperature pathways is essential to inform international climate negotiations and regional adaptation planning alike. At the same time, not only the warming dimension but also the regional dimension of changes in impacts is of interest, since regional changes might not be linearly related to global mean temperature increase. A detailed understanding of regionally differentiated impacts is an important basis on which to develop suitable coping strategies and adaptation options. Here we present a framework that allows for a differentiation of regional changes in climate impacts at different levels of temperature increase. Based on data from the CMIP5 archive as well as output from the AgMIP project, we assess the climate impact projections for an increase in global mean surface air temperature of 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels for the 26 regions used in the IPCC SREX report. We show results for several extreme event indices as well as projections of water availability and agricultural yields. Based on a method developed by Fischer et al. (2013), we are able to test for statistical significance of changes in climate impact projections between the different warming levels across the model ensemble. References: Fischer, E. M., Beyerle, U. & Knutti, R. Robust spatially aggregated projections of climate extremes. Nature Climate Change 3, 1033-1038 (2013).

  5. Implication of Agricultural Land Use Change on Regional Climate Projection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, G.; Ahmed, K. F.; You, L.

    2015-12-01

    Agricultural land use plays an important role in land-atmosphere interaction. Agricultural activity is one of the most important processes driving human-induced land use land cover change (LULCC) in a region. In addition to future socioeconomic changes, climate-induced changes in crop yield represent another important factor shaping agricultural land use. In feedback, the resulting LULCC influences the direction and magnitude of global, regional and local climate change by altering Earth's radiative equilibrium. Therefore, assessment of climate change impact on future agricultural land use and its feedback is of great importance in climate change study. In this study, to evaluate the feedback of projected land use changes to the regional climate in West Africa, we employed an asynchronous coupling between a regional climate model (RegCM) and a prototype land use projection model (LandPro). The LandPro model, which was developed to project the future change in agricultural land use and the resulting shift in natural vegetation in West Africa, is a spatially explicit model that can account for both climate and socioeconomic changes in projecting future land use changes. In the asynchronously coupled modeling framework, LandPro was run for every five years during the period of 2005-2050 accounting for climate-induced change in crop yield and socioeconomic changes to project the land use pattern by the mid-21st century. Climate data at 0.5˚ was derived from RegCM to drive the crop model DSSAT for each of the five-year periods to simulate crop yields, which was then provided as input data to LandPro. Subsequently, the land use land cover map required to run RegCM was updated every five years using the outputs from the LandPro simulations. Results from the coupled model simulations improve the understanding of climate change impact on future land use and the resulting feedback to regional climate.

  6. Sensitivity of ICTP Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) to Initial and Lateral Boundary Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nadeem, I.; Formayer, H.

    2009-04-01

    Regional climate simulations require lateral boundary conditions. These are typically reanalysis of past observations or alternatively, output from climate general circulation models. Lateral boundary conditions are available at various temporal and spatial resolutions. At present, spatial resolution of reanalysis datasets ranges from few kilometers, for example, regional reanalysis limited to only single continent, to the coarser but global datasets like ECMWF 40 Years Re-Analysis. While these datasets represent reasonable analyses of 3-D atmospheric as well as surface conditions, their resolutions, the physics of the models used to generate them, and the means of assimilating data into them can produce very different results when used as boundary conditions for regional climate models. The sensitivity of ICTP Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) to different lateral boundary conditions was investigated over the Alpine region. The model was run directly at 10km horizontal resolution as well as in one-way double nested mode, with a 30 km grid point spacing mother domain encompassing the Europe and a 10 km grid point spacing nested domain covering the Alpine Region. The simulations spans the one-year period of 1989. The boundary conditions used for various simulations were ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim, 0.75° and 1.5° grid spacings, 6-h intervals), the ECMWF 40 Years Re-Analysis (ERA40, 1° and 2.5° grid spacings, 6-h interval) and finally the 2.5°, 6-h NCEP/DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis (Reanalysis-2). Sea Surface Temperature for the simulated periods were obtained from a UK Met Office Global Ocean Surface Temperature (GISST), a set of SST data in monthly 1° area grids. When recently released ERA-Interim Reanalysis, which is based on a recent release of the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS Cy31r2) containing many improvements both in the forecasting model and analysis methodology, was used as lateral and boundary conditions, the simulated precipitation field

  7. The new WMO RA VI Regional Climate Centre on Climate Monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rapp, J.; Nitsche, H.

    2010-09-01

    Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) are institutions with the capacity and mandate by WMO to develop high quality regional-scale products using global products and incorporating regional information. Recently a pilot network of three RCC consortia was established for the WMO region RA VI (Europe and Middle East): • RCC node on climate data, • RCC node on climate monitoring, • RCC node on long-range forecasting. DWD/Germany has taken the responsibility of the RCC node on climate monitoring (RRC-CM). Further consortium members are Armstatehydromet/Armenia, Météo-France/France, KNMI/The Netherlands, RHMS/Serbia, and TSMS/Turkey. RCCs provide online access to their products and services to national meteorological and hydrological services and to other regional users. Vice versa, RCCs receive data, products, know-how and feedbacks from the meteorological services as a main source for regional information. By the same time, they provide regional data, products and feedbacks to Global Production Centres and Lead Centres for respective verification and product optimisation of the global-scale information. The RCC-CM will perform basic functions covering the domain of climate monitoring: • Annual and monthly climate diagnostic bulletins, • Monthly monitoring maps: global, RAVI, Eastern Mediterranean, South Caucasus, • Reference climatologies and trend maps, • RA VI climate monitoring WebPortal, • Climate watches, • Training; Research and Development (R&D). The poster shows the current stage of development of the RCC-CM by means of example products.

  8. Regional Climate Service in Northern Germany -The North German Climate Office

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meinke, I.; Von Storch, H.

    2012-12-01

    The North German Climate Office was established in 2006 at the Institute for Coastal Research at the Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany as consequence of an increased public information need regarding coastal climate change and its impacts in Northern Germany. The service is characterized by an intensive dialogue between regional climate research and stakeholders in Northern Germany. About once a week scientists of the North German climate office are invited to contribute to public dialogue events. Also numerous direct inquiries are answered and expert interviews are conducted. From this dialogue process specific stakeholder information needs are localized and analysed to develop tailored information products. To provide easy and user specific access to research results interactive web tools are developed. One example is the North German climate atlas, an interactive web tool on possible future climate change in Northern Germany. Another interactive web tool is informing on present and future coastal protection needs in Northern Germany. Another aim of our information products is to assess and summarize the existing scientific knowledge on climate, climate change and impacts in Northern Germany. A mini IPCC-like regional assessment report has been published in 2010, which is summarizing, discussing and assessing the scientific knowledge on regional climate, climate change and impacts as well as possible adaptation strategies in the metropolitan region of Hamburg.

  9. Regional Climate Variations and Change for Terrestrial Ecosystems Workshop Review

    EPA Science Inventory

    North Carolina State University, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, in partnership with the U.S. Department of the Interior Southeast Climate Science Center (SECSC), hosted the Regional Climate Variations and Change for ...

  10. Building a Regional Collaborative for Climate Literacy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shcherba, O.; Carlton, C.

    2015-12-01

    The San Francisco Bay Area has a strong community of environmental educators with an articulated interest in expanding, elevating, and strengthening climate change programming. Based in this community, a group of educators identified a strong need for and interest in collaborating to increase capacity and knowledge, support pilot testing, and implement climate change best practices in educational and interpretive programs. Since its inception, the Bay Area Climate Literacy Collaborative has brought together over 25 organizations, ranging from wildlife refuges to nonprofit education centers and city park agencies. While still in its nascent phase, the Bay Area Climate Literacy Collaborative exemplifies the power of collective impact. With the backbone support of the Institute at the Golden Gate, the Collaborative has developed a common agenda and is making strides towards developing common measures of success. The initial development stages of this group present an interesting case study and highlight some of the challenges, opportunities, and lessons learned for others seeking to build their own collective impact initiative.

  11. Ensemble-based Regional Climate Prediction: Political Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miguel, E.; Dykema, J.; Satyanath, S.; Anderson, J. G.

    2008-12-01

    Accurate forecasts of regional climate, including temperature and precipitation, have significant implications for human activities, not just economically but socially. Sub Saharan Africa is a region that has displayed an exceptional propensity for devastating civil wars. Recent research in political economy has revealed a strong statistical relationship between year to year fluctuations in precipitation and civil conflict in this region in the 1980s and 1990s. To investigate how climate change may modify the regional risk of civil conflict in the future requires a probabilistic regional forecast that explicitly accounts for the community's uncertainty in the evolution of rainfall under anthropogenic forcing. We approach the regional climate prediction aspect of this question through the application of a recently demonstrated method called generalized scalar prediction (Leroy et al. 2009), which predicts arbitrary scalar quantities of the climate system. This prediction method can predict change in any variable or linear combination of variables of the climate system averaged over a wide range spatial scales, from regional to hemispheric to global. Generalized scalar prediction utilizes an ensemble of model predictions to represent the community's uncertainty range in climate modeling in combination with a timeseries of any type of observational data that exhibits sensitivity to the scalar of interest. It is not necessary to prioritize models in deriving with the final prediction. We present the results of the application of generalized scalar prediction for regional forecasts of temperature and precipitation and Sub Saharan Africa. We utilize the climate predictions along with the established statistical relationship between year-to-year rainfall variability in Sub Saharan Africa to investigate the potential impact of climate change on civil conflict within that region.

  12. A regional climate simulation study with land cover dynamics in Northern China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Hanjie; Ju, Yongmao; Li, Jianyun; Qiu, Guoyu

    2007-09-01

    A social-economic database based on the Governmental Statistical Annals, county-to-county investigation, literature verification, as well as the satellite identification was completed recently by the Remote Sensing and GIS Research Center, Beijing Normal University of China. The GIS Operational System handing this database not only provides details of the social, ecological, and economic information of the Northern China's 13 provinces since earlier 1950s, but also gives out predictions of these information by 2050 with different sceneries concerning the population increase, land use variation, governmental policy adjusting, administrating capability, science and technology development, National GDP increment, as well as world climate change. Aims at further regional climate simulation study, there is a special module nested in the GIS Operational System that interprets the county-level administrative data-units to a 60 × 60 km numerical mesh-grid suitable for climate model. By incorporating the land use dynamics provided by the above database, the new generation of the Regional Integrate Environment Modeling System (RIEMS2.0) was used for climate simulation study. The preliminary simulation studies show that: (1) the regional climate will be affected by the LULC variation because the equilibrium of water and heat transfer in the air-vegetation interface is changed; (2) the integrate impact of the LULC variation on climate (such as temperature, humidity and net long-wave radiation, precipitation) is not only limited to the Northern China where LULC varies, but also to the whole numerical domain where the LULC does not vary at all; (3) the ecological construction engineering implemented in Northern China including the Green-Great Wall construction engineering, the replace farming with forestry and grass movement, and the natural forest conservation etc has shown and will work positively on the eco-environment improvement, particularly shown as the increased

  13. Size matters: nest colonization patterns for twig-nesting ants

    PubMed Central

    Jiménez-Soto, Estelí; Philpott, Stacy M

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the drivers of ant diversity and co-occurrence in agroecosystems is fundamental because ants participate in interactions that influence agroecosystem processes. Multiple local and regional factors influence ant community assembly. We examined local factors that influence the structure of a twig-nesting ant community in a coffee system in Mexico using an experimental approach. We investigated whether twig characteristics (nest entrance size and diversity of nest entrance sizes) and nest strata (canopy shade tree or coffee shrub) affected occupation, species richness, and community composition of twig-nesting ants and whether frequency of occupation of ant species varied with particular nest entrance sizes or strata. We conducted our study in a shaded coffee farm in Chiapas, Mexico, between March and June 2012. We studied ant nest colonization by placing artificial nests (bamboo twigs) on coffee shrubs and shade trees either in diverse or uniform treatments. We also examined whether differences in vegetation (no. of trees, canopy cover and coffee density) influenced nest colonization. We found 33 ant species occupying 73% of nests placed. Nest colonization did not differ with nest strata or size. Mean species richness of colonizing ants was significantly higher in the diverse nest size entrance treatment, but did not differ with nest strata. Community composition differed between strata and also between the diverse and uniform size treatments on coffee shrubs, but not on shade trees. Some individual ant species were more frequently found in certain nest strata and in nests with certain entrance sizes. Our results indicate that twig-nesting ants are nest-site limited, quickly occupy artificial nests of many sizes, and that trees or shrubs with twigs of a diversity of entrance sizes likely support higher ant species richness. Further, individual ant species more frequently occupy nests with different sized entrances promoting ant richness on individual

  14. Size matters: nest colonization patterns for twig-nesting ants.

    PubMed

    Jiménez-Soto, Estelí; Philpott, Stacy M

    2015-08-01

    Understanding the drivers of ant diversity and co-occurrence in agroecosystems is fundamental because ants participate in interactions that influence agroecosystem processes. Multiple local and regional factors influence ant community assembly.We examined local factors that influence the structure of a twig-nesting ant community in a coffee system in Mexico using an experimental approach. We investigated whether twig characteristics (nest entrance size and diversity of nest entrance sizes) and nest strata (canopy shade tree or coffee shrub) affected occupation, species richness, and community composition of twig-nesting ants and whether frequency of occupation of ant species varied with particular nest entrance sizes or strata.We conducted our study in a shaded coffee farm in Chiapas, Mexico, between March and June 2012. We studied ant nest colonization by placing artificial nests (bamboo twigs) on coffee shrubs and shade trees either in diverse or uniform treatments. We also examined whether differences in vegetation (no. of trees, canopy cover and coffee density) influenced nest colonization.We found 33 ant species occupying 73% of nests placed. Nest colonization did not differ with nest strata or size. Mean species richness of colonizing ants was significantly higher in the diverse nest size entrance treatment, but did not differ with nest strata. Community composition differed between strata and also between the diverse and uniform size treatments on coffee shrubs, but not on shade trees. Some individual ant species were more frequently found in certain nest strata and in nests with certain entrance sizes.Our results indicate that twig-nesting ants are nest-site limited, quickly occupy artificial nests of many sizes, and that trees or shrubs with twigs of a diversity of entrance sizes likely support higher ant species richness. Further, individual ant species more frequently occupy nests with different sized entrances promoting ant richness on individual coffee

  15. A framework for modeling uncertainty in regional climate change (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Monier, E.; Gao, X.; Scott, J. R.; Sokolov, A. P.; Schlosser, C. A.

    2013-12-01

    In this study, we present a new modeling framework and a large ensemble of climate projections to investigate the uncertainty in regional climate change over the United States associated with four dimensions of uncertainty. The sources of uncertainty considered in this framework are the emissions projections (using different climate policies), the climate system response (represented by different values of climate sensitivity and net aerosol forcing), natural variability (by perturbing initial conditions) and structural uncertainty (using different climate models). The modeling framework revolves around the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model with an intermediate complexity earth system model (with a two-dimensional zonal-mean atmosphere). Regional climate change over the United States is obtained through a two-pronged approach. First, we use the IGSM-CAM framework which links the IGSM to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Secondly, we use a pattern-scaling method that extends the IGSM zonal mean based on climate change patterns from various climate models. Results show that uncertainty in temperature changes are mainly driven by policy choices and the range of climate sensitivity considered. Meanwhile, the four sources of uncertainty contribute more equally to precipitation changes, with natural variability having a large impact in the first part of the 21st century. Overall, the choice of policy is the largest driver of uncertainty in future projections of climate change over the United States. In light of these results, we recommend that when investigating climate change impacts over specific regions, studies consider all four sources of uncertainty analyzed in this paper.

  16. A hybrid approach to improving the skills of seasonal climate outlook at the regional scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Shuyan; Wang, Julian X. L.; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Morris, Vernon

    2016-01-01

    A hybrid seasonal forecasting approach was generated by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction operational Climate Forecast System (CFS) and its nesting Climate extension of Weather Research and Forecasting (CWRF) model to improve forecasting skill over the United States. Skills for the three summers of 2011-2013 were evaluated regarding location, timing, magnitude, and frequency. Higher spatial pattern correlation coefficients showed that the hybrid approach substantially improved summer mean precipitation and 2-m temperature geographical distributions compared with the results of the CFS and CWRF models. The area mean temporal correlation coefficients demonstrated that the hybrid approach also consistently improved the timing prediction skills for both variables. In general, the smaller root mean square errors indicated that the hybrid approach reduced the magnitude of the biases for both precipitation and temperature. The greatest improvements were achieved when the individual models had similar skills. The comparison with a North American multi-model ensemble further proved the feasibility of improving real-time seasonal forecast skill by using the hybrid approach, especially for heavy rain forecasting. Based on the complementary advantages of CFS the global model and CWRF the nesting regional model, the hybrid approach showed a substantial enhancement over CFS real-time forecasts during the summer. Future works are needed for further improving the quality of the hybrid approach through CWRF's optimized physics ensemble, which has been proven to be feasible and reliable.

  17. Influence of land use and climate on wetland breeding birds in the Prairie Pothole region of Canada

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Forcey, G.M.; Linz, G.M.; Thogmartin, W.E.; Bleier, W.J.

    2007-01-01

    Bird populations are influenced by a variety of factors at both small and large scales that range from the presence of suitable nesting habitat, predators, and food supplies to climate conditions and land-use patterns. We evaluated the influences of regional climate and land-use variables on wetland breeding birds in the Canada section of Bird Conservation Region 11 (CA-BCR11), the Prairie Potholes. We used bird abundance data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, land-use data from the Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration, and weather data from the National Climatic Data and Information Archive to model effects of regional environmental variables on bird abundance. Models were constructed a priori using information from published habitat associations in the literature, and fitting was performed with WinBUGS using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. Both land-use and climate variables contributed to predicting bird abundance in CA-BCR11, although climate predictors contributed the most to improving model fit. Examination of regional effects of climate and land use on wetland birds in CA-BCR11 revealed relationships with environmental covariates that are often overlooked by small-scale habitat studies. Results from these studies can be used to improve conservation and management planning for regional populations of avifauna. ?? 2007 NRC.

  18. Nesting ecology and nest survival of lesser prairie-chickens on the Southern High Plains of Texas

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grisham, Blake A.; Borsdorf, Philip K.; Boal, Clint W.; Boydston, Kathy K.

    2014-01-01

    The decline in population and range of lesser prairie-chickens (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) throughout the central and southern Great Plains has raised concerns considering their candidate status under the United States Endangered Species Act. Baseline ecological data for lesser prairie-chickens are limited, especially for the shinnery oak-grassland communities of Texas. This information is imperative because lesser prairie-chickens in shinnery oak grasslands occur at the extreme southwestern edge of their distribution. This geographic region is characterized by hot, arid climates, less fragmentation, and less anthropogenic development than within the remaining core distribution of the species. Thus, large expanses of open rangeland with less anthropogenic development and a climate that is classified as extreme for ground nesting birds may subsequently influence nest ecology, nest survival, and nest site selection differently compared to the rest of the distribution of the species. We investigated the nesting ecology of 50 radio-tagged lesser prairie-chicken hens from 2008 to 2011 in the shinnery oak-grassland communities in west Texas and found a substantial amount of inter-annual variation in incubation start date and percent of females incubating nests. Prairie-chickens were less likely to nest near unimproved roads and utility poles and in areas with more bare ground and litter. In contrast, hens selected areas dominated by grasses and shrubs and close to stock tanks to nest. Candidate models including visual obstruction best explained daily nest survival; a 5% increase in visual obstruction improved nest survival probability by 10%. The model-averaged probability of a nest surviving the incubation period was 0.43 (SE = 0.006; 95% CI: 0.23, 0.56). Our findings indicate that lesser prairie-chicken reproduction during our study period was dynamic and was correlated with seasonal weather patterns that ultimately promoted greater grass growth earlier in the

  19. Attributing regional effects of the 2014 Jordanian extreme drought to external climate drivers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bergaoui, Karim; Mitchell, Dann; Zaaboul, Rashyd; Otto, Friederike; McDonnell, Rachael; Dadson, Simon; Allen, Myles

    2015-04-01

    Throughout 2014, the regions of Jordan, Israel, Lebanon and Syria have experienced a persistent draught with clear impacts on the local populations. In this study we perform an extreme event attribution analysis of how such a draught has changed under climate change, with a specific focus on the flow rate of the Upper Jordan river and the water level of Lake Tiberious (AKA the Sea of Galilee). Both of which hold major societal, political and religious importance. To perform the analysis we make use of distributed computing power to run thousands of modelled years of 2014 with slightly different initial conditions. We use an atmosphere only model (HadAM3p) with a nested 50 km regional model covering Africa and the Middle East. The 50 km model atmospheric variables will be used directly to force offline our 1 km LIS surface model. Two separate experiments and simulations are performed, 1. for all known climate forcings that are present in 2014, and 2. for a naturalised 2014 scenario where we assume humans never impacted the climate. We perform sensitivity analyses on the observed precipitation over the regions of interest, and determine that the TRMM data is in good agreement with station data obtained from the Jordanian Ministry of Water. Using a combination of the TRMM and model data we are able to make clear statements on the attribution of a 2014-like extreme draught event to human causal factors.

  20. Current climate and climate change over India as simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alexandru, Adelina; Sushama, Laxmi

    2015-08-01

    The performance of the fifth generation of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) in reproducing the main climatic characteristics over India during the southwest (SW)-, post- and pre-monsoon seasons are presented in this article. To assess the performance of CRCM5, European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re- Analysis (ERA- 40) and Interim re-analysis (ERA-Interim) driven CRCM5 simulation is compared against independent observations and reanalysis data for the 1971-2000 period. Projected changes for two future periods, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, with respect to the 1971-2000 current period are assessed based on two transient climate change simulations of CRCM5 spanning the 1950-2100 period. These two simulations are driven by the Canadian Earth System Model version 2 (CanESM2) and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology's Earth System Low Resolution Model (MPI-ESM-LR), respectively. The boundary forcing errors associated with errors in the driving global climate models are also studied by comparing the 1971-2000 period of the CanESM2 and MPI-ESM-LR driven simulations with that of the CRCM5 simulation driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim. Results show that CRCM5 driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim is in general able to capture well the temporal and spatial patterns of 2 m-temperature, precipitation, wind, sea level pressure, total runoff and soil moisture over India in comparison with available reanalysis and observations. However, some noticeable differences between the model and observational data were found during the SW-monsoon season within the domain of integration. CRCM5 driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim is 1-2 °C colder than CRU observations and generates more precipitation over the Western Ghats and central regions of India, and not enough in the northern and north-eastern parts of India and along the Konkan west coast in comparison with the observed precipitation. The monsoon onset seems to be relatively well captured over the southwestern coast of

  1. Integrated Regional Assessment of Climate Change for Korean River Basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, H.; Franczyk, J.; Bae, D.; Jung, I.; Kwon, W.; Im, E.

    2006-12-01

    As the first national assessment, we investigated the potential impacts of climate change on water resources in the Korean peninsula that has varying climates and complex topography. Together with the precipitation runoff modeling system model, we used high resolution climate change scenarios and population and industrial growth scenarios for 2030. Climate change alone is projected to decrease mean annual runoff by 10% in four major river basins located in southern Korea. Summer floods and spring droughts are likely to occur more frequently at the sub-basin scale, suggesting the increasing vulnerability of regional water resources to climate change. When climate change scenarios are combined with population and industrial growth scenarios, the geographical variations of water stress increased. This necessitates the need for water allocation among different water users under the changing environment. A tool is being developed to address optimizing water allocation under changes in water availability for a selected basin of Korea.

  2. The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP): Status and results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gutowski, W. J.

    2009-12-01

    NARCCAP is a multi-institutional program that is investigating systematically the uncertainties in regional scale simulations of contemporary climate and projections of future climate. NARCCAP is supported by multiple federal agencies. NARCCAP is producing an ensemble of high-resolution climate-change scenarios by nesting multiple RCMs in reanalyses and multiple atmosphere-ocean GCM simulations of contemporary and future-scenario climates. The RCM domains cover the contiguous U.S., northern Mexico, and most of Canada. The simulation suite also includes time-slice, high resolution GCMs that use sea-surface temperatures from parent atmosphere-ocean GCMs. The baseline resolution of the RCMs and time-slice GCMs is 50 km. Simulations use three sources of boundary conditions: National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Department of Energy (DOE) AMIP-II Reanalysis, GCMs simulating contemporary climate and GCMs using the A2 SRES emission scenario for the twenty-first century. Simulations cover 1979-2004 and 2038-2060, with the first 3 years discarded for spin-up. The resulting RCM and time-slice simulations offer opportunity for extensive analysis of RCM simulations as well as a basis for multiple high-resolution climate scenarios for climate change impacts assessments. Geophysical statisticians are developing measures of uncertainty from the ensemble. To enable very high-resolution simulations of specific regions, both RCM and high-resolution time-slice simulations are saving output needed for further downscaling. All output is publically available to the climate analysis and the climate impacts assessment community, through an archiving and data-distribution plan. Some initial results show that the models closely reproduce ENSO-related precipitation variations in coastal California, where the correlation between the simulated and observed monthly time series exceeds 0.94 for all models. The strong El Nino events of 1982-83 and 1997-98 are well reproduced for

  3. The Rufous Hornero (Furnarius rufus) nest as an incubation chamber.

    PubMed

    Shibuya, Felipe L S; Braga, Talita V; Roper, James J

    2015-01-01

    Foraging and incubation are mutually exclusive activities for parent birds. A trade-off is generated when a combination of food availability and temperature regulation force birds to choose one and neglect the other, at least temporarily. The Rufous Hornero builds large, oven-like, mud nests, the evolutionary cause of which remains unknown. We tested that temperature variation inside the nest is that which is expected if one function of the nest were for temperate regulation. If so, this would suggest that the nest works as an incubation chamber (but which now may serve more than one function). We divided nests into two natural treatments: nests that received more continuous direct sunshine (sun), and those that received less direct sunshine, due to shade from trees or buildings (shade). Thermometer data loggers were placed in the nest cavity and outside, in the shade of the nest, and temperature was measured every 10min. We predicted that temperatures would consistently be higher and less variable in nests than outside nests. Also, at higher ambient temperatures the nest would function better as an incubation chamber as a consequence of having evolved in a hotter climate. Thus, in Curitiba, where temperatures are lower than where the species (and nest) evolved, nests in greater sunshine should have thermal characteristics that support the incubation chamber hypothesis. Predictions were supported: with Repeated Measures ANOVA and t-tests, we found that temperatures were more constant and higher in nests, especially when in the sun, and as the season progressed (hotter ambient temperatures). We conclude that the large mud nest of the Rufous Hornero works as an incubation chamber that likely evolved to help resolve the incubation-foraging trade-off in the very seasonal and hot regions where the bird evolved. Thus, as an incubation chamber, the nest allows the bird to forage rather than incubate thereby resolving the foraging-incubation trade-off and potentially

  4. Impacts on regional climate of Amazon deforestation

    SciTech Connect

    Dickinson, R.E.; Kennedy, P. NCAR, Boulder, CO )

    1992-10-01

    A simulation of the climate response to Amazon deforestation has been carried out. Precipitation is decreased on the average by 25 percent or 1.4 mm/day, with ET and runoff both decreasing by 0.7 mm/day. Modifications of surface energy balance through change of albedo and roughness are complicated by cloud feedbacks. The initial decrease of the absorption of solar radiation by higher surface albedos is largely cancelled by a reduction in cloud cover, but consequent reduction in downward longwave has a substantial impact on surface energy balance. Smoke aerosols might have an effect comparable to deforestation during burning season. 8 refs.

  5. Feeding ecology of arctic-nesting sandpipers during spring migration through the prairie pothole region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Eldridge, J.L.; Krapu, G.L.; Johnson, D.H.

    2009-01-01

    We evaluated food habits of 4 species of spring-migrant calidrid sandpipers in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North Dakota. Sandpipers foraged in several wetland classes and fed primarily on aquatic dipterans, mostly larvae, and the midge family Chironomidae was the primary food eaten. Larger sandpiper species foraged in deeper water and took larger larvae than did smaller sandpipers. The diverse wetland habitats that migrant shorebirds use in the PPR suggest a landscape-level approach be applied to wetland conservation efforts. We recommend that managers use livestock grazing and other tools, where applicable, to keep shallow, freshwater wetlands from becoming choked with emergent vegetation limiting chironomid production and preventing shorebird use.

  6. Helminth parasites of the lesser great cormorant Phalacrocorax carbo sinensis from two nesting regions in the Czech Republic.

    PubMed

    Moravec, Frantisek; Scholz, Tomas

    2016-01-01

    Parasitological examinations of 102 specimens of the lesser great cormorant Phalacrocorax carbo sinensis (Blumenbach) from two nesting regions in the Czech Republic (South Bohemia and South Moravia) were carried out at the Institute of Parasitology, Czech Academy of Sciences (previously the Czechoslovak Academy of Sciences) in the years 1987-1992. In them, a total of 19 species of helminth parasites was found, including Trematoda (11 species), Cestoda (2), Nematoda (4) and Acanthocephala (2), which can be divided into three main groups regarding their host specificity: parasites specific for cormorants (Phalacrocorax spp.) (37%), those parasitic mainly in cormorants (16%) and non-specific parasites (47%). Of the 19 species recorded, 100% were found in South Moravia, but only 47% of these 19 species in South Bohemia. The higher number of helminth species in cormorants from South Moravia and a higher proportion of non-specific species may be associated with the presence of the large Nové Mlýny water reservoir, in addition to better ecological and environmental conditions in this warmer region. Scanning electron microscopical examination of three common nematode species parasitising cormorants, Contracaecum rudolphii Hartwich, 1964, Desmidocercella incognita Solonitsin, 1932 and Syncuaria squamata (von Linstow, 1883), revealed some taxonomically important, previously unreported morphological features, such as the cephalic structures, numbers and distribution of male caudal papillae or the shapes of spicules. PMID:27312270

  7. Drought analysis according to shifting of climate zones to arid climate zone over Asia monsoon region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Son, Kyung-Hwan; Bae, Deg-Hyo

    2015-10-01

    When a humid region is affected by arid climate, significant changes in drought characteristics occur due to imbalance of water budget. In this study, change in drought characteristics according to shift of different climates i.e. tropical, warm temperate, cold and polar to Arid Climate (SAC) was analyzed over the Asia monsoon region. Climate zones and the SAC regions were identified by applying the Köppen climate classification on hydro-meteorological data for the period of 1963-2006. The analysis of hydro-meteorological parameters revealed that the annual precipitation and runoff in the SAC regions appeared to decrease about 12.1% and 27.3%, respectively, while annual average temperature increased about 0.5 °C. Standardized runoff index (SRI) was calculated using model-driven runoff data. The trend and change point analyses of SRI were performed to evaluate the changes in drought characteristics (frequency, duration, severity) before and after shifting of the different climates to arid climate. The results revealed strong decreasing trend of SRI and hence intensified drought conditions for the SAC regions. A change point year of drought occurred about 3-5 years earlier than the shifting time of the SAC region. Frequency and duration of droughts in the SAC regions were observed to increase about 9.2 and 1.5 months, respectively, and drought severity index intensified to about -0.15. It can be concluded that analysis of shifting to arid climate zones should be considered together with changes in drought characteristics, because the drought characteristics and changing arid climate zones are closely related to each other.

  8. Artificial nest experiments in a fragmented neotropical cloud forest

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Trujillo, G.; Ahumada, J.A.

    2005-01-01

    We conducted artificial nest experiments in a Neotropical montane forest in the eastern Andes, Colombia, in order to test the effect of placing the nests in forest fragments or continuous forests, at two nest heights and for two different climatic seasons. Predation was not consistently different between nests placed in fragments and controls. However, we found that nests on the ground had a higher daily probability of being predated than nests in the understory. Also, daily nest mortality rate (DNM) was higher in the wet season than in the dry season. Most of the predated nests were attributed to mammals (56%), and predation occurred mostly on the ground (78%). Our estimates of DNM are quite low (= 0.023) and similar to another Neotropical montane forest and other Neotropical sites. Comparisons of DNM between Neotropical and temperate sites suggests that predation rates are similar. Our results suggest that fragmentation may not have a large negative impact in nest predation for bird populations breeding in fragments compared to other sites in tropical and temperate regions. ?? The Neotropical Ornithological Society.

  9. Importance of individual species of predators on nesting success of ducks in the Canadian prairie pothole region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, Douglas H.; Sargeant, Alan B.; Greenwood, Raymond J.

    1989-01-01

    We followed 3094 upland nests of several species of ducks. Clutches in most nests were lost to predation. We related daily nest predation rates to indices of activity of eight egg-eating predators, precipitation during the nesting season, and measures of wetland conditions. Activity indices of red fox (Vulpes vulpes), striped skunk (Mephitis mephitis), and raccoon (Procyon lotor) activity were positively correlated, as were activity indices of coyote (Canis latrans), Franklin's ground squirrel (Spermophilus franklinii), and black-billed magpie (Pica pica). Indices of fox and coyote activity were strongly negatively correlated (r = -0.51), as were those of badger (Taxidea taxus) and skunk (r = -0.46). Nest predation rates in the early part of the breeding season were positively related to indices of fox, American crow (Corvus brachyrhynchos), and badger activity. Predation rates in the latter part of the season were positively related to indices of fox and skunk activity. Predation rates on early-season nests were lower in areas and years in which larger fractions of seasonal wetlands contained water. For late-season nests, a similar relationship held involving semipermanent wetlands. We suspect that the wetland measures, which reflect precipitation during some previous period, also indicate vegetation growth and the abundance of buffer prey, factors that may influence nest predation rates.

  10. Regional climate impacts of a biofuels policy projection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, Christopher J.; Anex, Robert P.; Arritt, Raymond W.; Gelder, Brian K.; Khanal, Sami; Herzmann, Daryl E.; Gassman, Phillip W.

    2013-03-01

    The potential for regional climate change arising from adoption of policies to increase production of biofuel feedstock is explored using a regional climate model. Two simulations are performed using the same atmospheric forcing data for the period 1979-2004, one with present-day land use and monthly phenology and the other with land use specified from an agro-economic prediction of energy crop distribution and monthly phenology consistent with this land use change. In Kansas and Oklahoma, where the agro-economic model predicts 15-30% conversion to switchgrass, the regional climate model simulates locally lower temperature (especially in spring), slightly higher relative humidity in spring and slightly lower relative humidity in summer, and summer depletion of soil moisture. This shows the potential for climate impacts of biofuel policies and raises the question of whether soil water depletion may limit biomass crop productivity in agricultural areas that are responsive to the policies. We recommend the use of agronomic models to evaluate the possibility that soil moisture depletion could reduce productivity of biomass crops in this region. We conclude, therefore, that agro-economic and climate models should be used iteratively to examine an ensemble of agricultural land use and climate scenarios, thereby reducing the possibility of unforeseen consequences from rapid changes in agricultural production systems.

  11. Atmospheric and Climate Aspects of Russian Regions Sustainability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Golitsyn, G. S.; Dubovsky, S. V.; Ginzburg, A. S.; Mokhov, I. I.; Khomyakov, P. M.

    Russia is one of the first countries created the national program of sustainable devel- opment. The Presidential Decree SOn the national strategy of the Russian Federation & cedil;in the environment protection and sustainable developmentT was issued by in 1994. Atmospheric and climate aspects play very important roles in the sustainable devel- opment at the regional level in Russia as well as at national one. Last year Russian Academy of Sciences in collaboration with some leaders of the local Russian au- thorities started the Project SSustainable development of Russia and its regionsT. In & cedil; this project the problems of Russian socio-economical development are considered together with regional atmospheric and climate changes, environmental and natural resources, population, urbanization, energetic and new technology development, and so on. The main problems of Russian regions socio-economical development related to global and local climate changes, environmental and natural resources, urbanization will be discussed.

  12. Hydrological response to changing climate conditions: Spatial streamflow variability in the boreal region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teutschbein, Claudia; Grabs, Thomas; Karlsen, Reinert H.; Laudon, Hjalmar; Bishop, Kevin

    2016-04-01

    It has long been recognized that streamflow-generating processes are not only dependent on climatic conditions, but also affected by physical catchment properties such as topography, geology, soils and land cover. We hypothesize that these landscape characteristics do not only lead to highly variable hydrologic behavior of rather similar catchments under the same stationary climate conditions (Karlsen et al., 2014), but that they also play a fundamental role for the sensitivity of a catchment to a changing climate (Teutschbein et al., 2015). A multi-model ensemble based on 15 regional climate models was combined with a multi-catchment approach to explore the hydrologic sensitivity of 14 partially nested and rather similar catchments in Northern Sweden to changing climate conditions and the importance of small-scale spatial variability. Current (1981-2010) and future (2061-2090) streamflow was simulated with the HBV model. As expected, projected increases in temperature and precipitation resulted in increased total available streamflow, with lower spring and summer flows, but substantially higher winter streamflow. Furthermore, significant changes in flow durations with lower chances of both high and low flows can be expected in boreal Sweden in the future. This overall trend in projected streamflow pattern changes was comparable among the analyzed catchments while the magnitude of change differed considerably. This suggests that catchments belonging to the same region can show distinctly different degrees of hydrological responses to the same external climate change signal. We reason that differences in spatially distributed physical catchment properties at smaller scales are not only of great importance for current streamflow behavior, but also play a major role as first-order control for the sensitivity of catchments to changing climate conditions. References Karlsen, R.H., T. Grabs, K. Bishop, H. Laudon, and J. Seibert (2014). Landscape controls on

  13. Marsh nesting by mallards

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Krapu, G.L.; Talent, L.G.; Dwyer, T.J.

    1979-01-01

    Nest-site selection by mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) hens was studied on a 52-km2, privately owned area in the Missouri Coteau of south-central North Dakota during 1974-77. Sixty-six percent of 53 nests initiated by radio-marked and unmarked hens were in wetlands in dense stands of emergent vegetation and usually within 50 m of the wetland edge. These findings and other sources of information suggest that significant numbers of mallards breeding in the Prairie Pothole Region nest in marsh habitat. Potential factors contributing to mallard use of marsh habitat for nesting purposes are discussed. Management considerations associated with marsh nesting by mallards are described and research needs are identified.

  14. Arctic Climate Change Analysed By Two 30-year Scenario Regional Climate Model Runs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kiilsholm, S.; Christensen, J. H.

    High-resolution climate change simulations for an area covering the entire Arctic have been conducted with the regional climate model (RCM) HIRHAM. The emission sce- narios used were the IPCC SRES1 marker scenarios A2 and B2. Three 30-year time slice experiments were conducted with HIRHAM for periods representing present-day (1961-1990) and the future (2071-2100) in the two scenarios. Changes of the climate between these two periods will be presented with special emphasize on the climate of Greenland.

  15. Regional Climate Model Projections for the State of Washington

    SciTech Connect

    Salathe, E.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Qian, Yun; Zhang, Yongxin

    2010-05-05

    Global climate models do not have sufficient spatial resolution to represent the atmospheric and land surface processes that determine the unique regional heterogeneity of the climate of the State of Washington. If future large-scale weather patterns interact differently with the local terrain and coastlines than current weather patterns, local changes in temperature and precipitation could be quite different from the coarse-scale changes projected by global models. Regional climate models explicitly simulate the interactions between the large-scale weather patterns simulated by a global model and the local terrain. We have performed two 100-year climate simulations using the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). One simulation is forced by the NCAR Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) and the second is forced by a simulation of the Max Plank Institute, Hamburg, global model (ECHAM5). The mesoscale simulations produce regional changes in snow cover, cloudiness, and circulation patterns associated with interactions between the large-scale climate change and the regional topography and land-water contrasts. These changes substantially alter the temperature and precipitation trends over the region relative to the global model result or statistical downscaling. To illustrate this effect, we analyze the changes from the current climate (1970-1999) to the mid 21st century (2030-2059). Changes in seasonal-mean temperature, precipitation, and snowpack are presented. Several climatological indices of extreme daily weather are also presented: precipitation intensity, fraction of precipitation occurring in extreme daily events, heat wave frequency, growing season length, and frequency of warm nights. Despite somewhat different changes in seasonal precipitation and temperature from the two regional simulations, consistent results for changes in snowpack and extreme precipitation are found in

  16. Triangular Nests!

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Powell, R. I.

    2002-01-01

    Shows how integer-sided triangles can be nested, each nest having a single enclosing isosceles triangle. Brings to light what can be seen as a relatively simple generalization of Pythagoras' theorem, a result that should be readily accessible to many secondary school pupils. (Author/KHR)

  17. Direct and Indirect ENSO Influences on Regional Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Renguang

    2016-04-01

    El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the strongest signals in the tropics and imposes large influences on climate in many regions, such as the Indian summer monsoon, central American precipitation, and the South China Sea precipitation. ENSO affects regional climate variability both directly and indirectly. The direct influence is through concurrent atmospheric circulation response to anomalous heating associated with equatorial central and eastern Pacific SST anomalies. The indirect influence is by first inducing regional SST anomalies through the so-called "atmospheric bridge" and then atmospheric circulation response to the regional SST anomalies. Previous studies are either focused on the direct influence of ENSO via concurrent atmospheric change or the indirect influence of ENSO via regional SST anomalies. In this talk, the presenter will distinguish the direct and indirect influences of ENSO and demonstrate how the two types of influences may play together in leading to regional climate variability. Summer climate anomalies in three regions will be used for illustration: the Indian summer monsoon, central American summer precipitation, and the South China Sea summer precipitation.

  18. Verification of regional climate models over the territory of Ukraine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krakovska, S.; Palamarchuk, L.; Shedemenko, I.; Djukel, G.; Gnatjuk, N.

    2009-04-01

    Verification of regional climate models (RCMs) over the territory of Ukraine was the first stage of the National project for assessment of possible climate change and its impact on the economic and social life in Ukraine in XXI century. Since Ukraine has pretty different climates in different parts, the territory of Ukraine was divided on 11 regions with more or less uniform climate conditions: 7 almost equal in space regions in plain terrain, 2 - in coastal zones near the Black and Azov seas and 2 - in the Carpathian and the Crimean mountains. Verification of RCMs for climate characteristics was carried out for each defined region separately. Data of meteorological network in Ukraine (187 stations) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU 10-min global data-set) for multy-year monthly, season and annual means of temperature and precipitation for the period 1961-90 were used for verification of models' results. Two RCMs were used in the analysis of the past climate of Ukraine: REMO (MPI-M, Hamburg) and RegCM3 (ICTP, Trieste). Both models were constructed with initial and boundary conditions from ERA-40 data-set with horizontal spacing of ~25 km and vertically 27 (REMO) and 18 (RegCM3) Z-σ levels. In a whole, both models demonstrated better ability for temperature than precipitation characteristics. Very high correlation of 0.9 was found between models, network and CRU for temperatures and 0.7-0.8 for precipitation. Generally, models were warmer especially for summer months up to 2 oC. More precipitation in the models was found for winter season and less - for summer and in the mountainous subregions comparably with observations. In perspective we intend to run RCMs initialized with GCMs for the same period and for XXI century and account for the obtained systematic models' errors in the analysis of possible climate change over the territory of Ukraine.

  19. Projections of African drought extremes in CORDEX regional climate simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gbobaniyi, Emiola; Nikulin, Grigory; Jones, Colin; Kjellström, Erik

    2013-04-01

    We investigate trends in drought extremes for different climate regions of the African continent over a combined historical and future period 1951-2100. Eight CMIP5 coupled atmospheric global climate models (CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-ES, NorESM1-M, EC-EARTH, MIROC5, GFDL-ESM2M and MPI-ESM-LR) under two forcing scenarios, the relative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, with spatial resolution varying from about 1° to 3° are downscaled to 0.44° resolution by the Rossby Centre (SMHI) regional climate model RCA4. We use data from the ensuing ensembles of CORDEX-Africa regional climate simulations to explore three drought indices namely: standardized precipitation index (SPI), moisture index (MI) and difference in precipitation and evaporation (P-E). Meteorological and agricultural drought conditions are assessed in our analyses and a climate change signal is obtained for the SPI by calculating gamma functions for future SPI with respect to a baseline present climate. Results for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios are inter-compared to assess uncertainties in the future projections. We show that there is a pronounced sensitivity to the choice of forcing GCM which indicates that assessments of future drought conditions in Africa would benefit from large model ensembles. We also note that the results are sensitive to the choice of drought index. We discuss both spatial and temporal variability of drought extremes for different climate zones of Africa and the importance of the ensemble mean. Our study highlights the usefulness of CORDEX simulations in identifying possible future impacts of climate at local and regional scales.

  20. Regional projections of North Indian climate for adaptation studies.

    PubMed

    Mathison, Camilla; Wiltshire, Andrew; Dimri, A P; Falloon, Pete; Jacob, Daniela; Kumar, Pankaj; Moors, Eddy; Ridley, Jeff; Siderius, Christian; Stoffel, Markus; Yasunari, T

    2013-12-01

    Adaptation is increasingly important for regions around the world where large changes in climate could have an impact on populations and industry. The Brahmaputra-Ganges catchments have a large population, a main industry of agriculture and a growing hydro-power industry, making the region susceptible to changes in the Indian Summer Monsoon, annually the main water source. The HighNoon project has completed four regional climate model simulations for India and the Himalaya at high resolution (25km) from 1960 to 2100 to provide an ensemble of simulations for the region. In this paper we have assessed the ensemble for these catchments, comparing the simulations with observations, to give credence that the simulations provide a realistic representation of atmospheric processes and therefore future climate. We have illustrated how these simulations could be used to provide information on potential future climate impacts and therefore aid decision-making using climatology and threshold analysis. The ensemble analysis shows an increase in temperature between the baseline (1970-2000) and the 2050s (2040-2070) of between 2 and 4°C and an increase in the number of days with maximum temperatures above 28°C and 35°C. There is less certainty for precipitation and runoff which show considerable variability, even in this relatively small ensemble, spanning zero. The HighNoon ensemble is the most complete data for the region providing useful information on a wide range of variables for the regional climate of the Brahmaputra-Ganges region, however there are processes not yet included in the models that could have an impact on the simulations of future climate. We have discussed these processes and show that the range from the HighNoon ensemble is similar in magnitude to potential changes in projections where these processes are included. Therefore strategies for adaptation must be robust and flexible allowing for advances in the science and natural environmental changes. PMID

  1. Sensitivity of regional climate to global temperature and forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tebaldi, Claudia; O'Neill, Brian; Lamarque, Jean-François

    2015-07-01

    The sensitivity of regional climate to global average radiative forcing and temperature change is important for setting global climate policy targets and designing scenarios. Setting effective policy targets requires an understanding of the consequences exceeding them, even by small amounts, and the effective design of sets of scenarios requires the knowledge of how different emissions, concentrations, or forcing need to be in order to produce substantial differences in climate outcomes. Using an extensive database of climate model simulations, we quantify how differences in global average quantities relate to differences in both the spatial extent and magnitude of climate outcomes at regional (250-1250 km) scales. We show that differences of about 0.3 °C in global average temperature are required to generate statistically significant changes in regional annual average temperature over more than half of the Earth’s land surface. A global difference of 0.8 °C is necessary to produce regional warming over half the land surface that is not only significant but reaches at least 1 °C. As much as 2.5 to 3 °C is required for a statistically significant change in regional annual average precipitation that is equally pervasive. Global average temperature change provides a better metric than radiative forcing for indicating differences in regional climate outcomes due to the path dependency of the effects of radiative forcing. For example, a difference in radiative forcing of 0.5 W m-2 can produce statistically significant differences in regional temperature over an area that ranges between 30% and 85% of the land surface, depending on the forcing pathway.

  2. Impact of regional climate change on human health

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patz, Jonathan A.; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Holloway, Tracey; Foley, Jonathan A.

    2005-11-01

    The World Health Organisation estimates that the warming and precipitation trends due to anthropogenic climate change of the past 30years already claim over 150,000 lives annually. Many prevalent human diseases are linked to climate fluctuations, from cardiovascular mortality and respiratory illnesses due to heatwaves, to altered transmission of infectious diseases and malnutrition from crop failures. Uncertainty remains in attributing the expansion or resurgence of diseases to climate change, owing to lack of long-term, high-quality data sets as well as the large influence of socio-economic factors and changes in immunity and drug resistance. Here we review the growing evidence that climate-health relationships pose increasing health risks under future projections of climate change and that the warming trend over recent decades has already contributed to increased morbidity and mortality in many regions of the world. Potentially vulnerable regions include the temperate latitudes, which are projected to warm disproportionately, the regions around the Pacific and Indian oceans that are currently subjected to large rainfall variability due to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation sub-Saharan Africa and sprawling cities where the urban heat island effect could intensify extreme climatic events.

  3. Impact of regional climate change on human health.

    PubMed

    Patz, Jonathan A; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Holloway, Tracey; Foley, Jonathan A

    2005-11-17

    The World Health Organisation estimates that the warming and precipitation trends due to anthropogenic climate change of the past 30 years already claim over 150,000 lives annually. Many prevalent human diseases are linked to climate fluctuations, from cardiovascular mortality and respiratory illnesses due to heatwaves, to altered transmission of infectious diseases and malnutrition from crop failures. Uncertainty remains in attributing the expansion or resurgence of diseases to climate change, owing to lack of long-term, high-quality data sets as well as the large influence of socio-economic factors and changes in immunity and drug resistance. Here we review the growing evidence that climate-health relationships pose increasing health risks under future projections of climate change and that the warming trend over recent decades has already contributed to increased morbidity and mortality in many regions of the world. Potentially vulnerable regions include the temperate latitudes, which are projected to warm disproportionately, the regions around the Pacific and Indian oceans that are currently subjected to large rainfall variability due to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation sub-Saharan Africa and sprawling cities where the urban heat island effect could intensify extreme climatic events. PMID:16292302

  4. Regional analysis of ground and above-ground climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    1981-12-01

    The regional suitability of underground construction as a climate control technique is discussed with reference to (1) a bioclimatic analysis of long term weather data for 29 locations in the United States to determine appropriate above ground climate control techniques, (2) a data base of synthesized ground temperatures for the coterminous United States, and (3) monthly dew point ground temperature comparisons for identifying the relative likelihood of condensation from one region to another. It is concluded that the suitability of Earth tempering as a practice and of specific Earth sheltered design stereotypes varies geographically; while the subsurface almost always provides a thermal advantage on its own terms when compared to above ground climatic data, it can, nonetheless, compromise the effectiveness of other, regionally more important climate control techniques. Reviews of above and below ground climate mapping schemes related to human comfort and architectural design, and detailed description of a theoretical model of ground temperature, heat flow, and heat storage in the ground are included. Strategies of passive climate control are presented in a discussion of the building bioclimatic analysis procedure which has been applied in a computer analysis of 30 years of weather data for each of 20 locations in the United States.

  5. Regional analysis of ground and above-ground climate

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1981-12-01

    The regional suitability of underground construction as a climate control technique is discussed with reference to (1) a bioclimatic analysis of long-term weather data for 29 locations in the United States to determine appropriate above ground climate control techniques, (2) a data base of synthesized ground temperatures for the coterminous United States, and (3) monthly dew point ground temperature comparisons for identifying the relative likelihood of condensation from one region to another. It is concluded that the suitability of earth tempering as a practice and of specific earth-sheltered design stereotypes varies geographically; while the subsurface almost always provides a thermal advantage on its own terms when compared to above ground climatic data, it can, nonetheless, compromise the effectiveness of other, regionally more important climate control techniques. Also contained in the report are reviews of above and below ground climate mapping schemes related to human comfort and architectural design, and detailed description of a theoretical model of ground temperature, heat flow, and heat storage in the ground. Strategies of passive climate control are presented in a discussion of the building bioclimatic analysis procedure which has been applied in a computer analysis of 30 years of weather data for each of 29 locations in the United States.

  6. The WASCAL regional climate simulations for West Africa - how to add value to existing climate projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnault, J.; Heinzeller, D.; Klein, C.; Dieng, D.; Smiatek, G.; Bliefernicht, J.; Sylla, M. B.; Kunstmann, H.

    2015-12-01

    With climate change being one of the most severe challenges to rural Africa in the 21st century, West Africa is facing an urgent need to develop effective adaptation and mitigation measures to protect its constantly growing population. WASCAL (West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use) is a large-scale research-focused program designed to enhance the resilience of human and environmental systems to climate change and increased variability. An integral part of its climate services is the provisioning of a new set of high resolution, ensemble-based regional climate change scenarios for the region of West Africa. In this contribution, we present the overall concept of the WASCAL regional climate projections and provide information on the dissemination of the data. We discuss the model performance over the validation period for two of the three regional climate models employed, the Weather Research & Forecasting Tool (WRF) and the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling Model COSMO in Climate Mode (COSMO-CLM), and give details about a novel precipitation database used to verify the models. Particular attention is paid to the representation of the dynamics of the West African Summer Monsoon and to the added value of our high resolution models over existing data sets. We further present results on the climate change signal obtained from the WRF model runs for the periods 2020-2050 and 2070-2100 and compare them to current state-of-the-art projections from the CORDEX project. As an example, the figure shows the different climate change signals obtained for the total annual rainfall with respect to the 1980-2010 mean (WRF-E: WASCAL 12km high-resolution run MPI-ESM + WRFV3.5.1, CORDEX-E: 50km medium-resolution run MPI-ESM + RCA4, CORDEX-G: 50km medium-resolution run GFDL-ESM + RCA4).

  7. Regional Analysis of Energy, Water, Land and Climate Interactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tidwell, V. C.; Averyt, K.; Harriss, R. C.; Hibbard, K. A.; Newmark, R. L.; Rose, S. K.; Shevliakova, E.; Wilson, T.

    2014-12-01

    Energy, water, and land systems interact in many ways and are impacted by management and climate change. These systems and their interactions often differ in significant ways from region-to-region. To explore the coupled energy-water-land system and its relation to climate change and management a simple conceptual model of demand, endowment and technology (DET) is proposed. A consistent and comparable analysis framework is needed as climate change and resource management practices have the potential to impact each DET element, resource, and region differently. These linkages are further complicated by policy and trade agreements where endowments of one region are used to meet demands in another. This paper reviews the unique DET characteristics of land, energy and water resources across the United States. Analyses are conducted according to the eight geographic regions defined in the 2014 National Climate Assessment. Evident from the analyses are regional differences in resources endowments in land (strong East-West gradient in forest, cropland and desert), water (similar East-West gradient), and energy. Demands likewise vary regionally reflecting differences in population density and endowment (e.g., higher water use in West reflecting insufficient precipitation to support dryland farming). The effect of technology and policy are particularly evident in differences in the energy portfolios across the eight regions. Integrated analyses that account for the various spatial and temporal differences in regional energy, water and land systems are critical to informing effective policy requirements for future energy, climate and resource management. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

  8. Informing Decisions with a Climate Synthesis Product: Implications for Regional Climate Services

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guido, Z.; Hill, D.; Crimmins, M.; Ferguson, D. B.

    2012-12-01

    The demand for regional climate information is increasing and spurring efforts to provide a broad slate of climate services that inform policy and resource management and elevate general knowledge. Routine syntheses of existing climate-related information may be an effective strategy for connecting climate information to decision making, but few studies have formally assessed their contribution to informing decisions. During the 2010-2011 winter, drought conditions expanded and intensified in Arizona and New Mexico, creating an opportunity to develop and evaluate a pithy, monthly regional climate communication product—La Niña Drought Tracker—that synthesized and interpreted drought and climate information. Six issues were published and subsequently evaluated through an online survey. On average, 417 people consulted the publication each month. Many of the survey respondents indicated that they made at least one drought-related decision, and the product at least moderately influenced the majority of those decisions, some of which helped mitigate economic losses and reduce climate vulnerability. The product also improved understanding of climate and drought for more than 90 percent of the respondents and helped the majority of them better prepare for drought. These, and other results demonstrate that routine interpretation and synthesis of existing climate information can help enhance access to and understanding and use of climate information in decision-making. Moreover, developing regional, contextual knowledge within climate service programs can facilitate the implementation of activities like the Tracker that enhance the use of climate information without engaging in time-consuming collaborative processes that can prevent the timely production of the services. We present results from the case study of the Tracker and place it within the context of the challenges and opportunities associated with providing climate services, particularly those services that

  9. The Sensitivity of Precipitation and Snowpack Simulations to Model Resolution via Nesting in Regions of Complex Terrain

    SciTech Connect

    Leung, Lai R.; Qian, Yun

    2003-12-01

    This paper examines sensitivity of regional climate simulations to spatial resolution using a 20-year simulation of the western U.S. at 40 km resolution and two 5-year simulations at 13 km resolution for the Pacific Northwest and California. The regional climate simulation at 40 km resolution shows a lack of precipitation along coastal hills, good agreements with observations on the windward slopes of the Cascades and Sierra, but over-prediction on the leeside and the basins beyond. Snowpack is grossly under-predicted throughout the western U.S. when compared against observations at snotel sites, which are typically located at the higher altitudes. Comparisons of the 40 km and 13 km resolution simulations suggest that during winter, higher spatial resolution mainly improves the simulation of precipitation in the coastal hills and basins. Along the Cascades and the Sierra Range, however, precipitation is strongly amplified at the higher spatial resolution and compares less favorably with observations. Higher resolution generally improves the spatial distribution of precipitation to yield higher spatial correlation when comparing the simulations to observation. During summer, higher resolution improves not only spatial distribution but also regional mean precipitation.

  10. Regional differences in response of flow in glacier-fed Himalayan rivers to climatic warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rees, H. Gwyn; Collins, David N.

    2006-06-01

    River flow from glacierized areas in the Himalaya is influenced both by intra-annual variations in precipitation and energy availability, and by longer term changes in storage of water as glacier ice. High specific discharge from ice melt often dominates flow for considerable distances downstream, particularly where other sources of runoff are limited, providing a major water resource. Should Himalayan glaciers continue to retreat rapidly, water shortages might be widespread within a few decades. However, given the difference in climate between the drier western and monsoonal eastern ends of the region, future warming is unlikely to affect river flow uniformly throughout.A simple temperature-index-based hydro-glaciological model, in which glacier dimensions are allowed to decline through time, has been developed with a view to assessing, in data-sparse areas, by how much and when climate warming will reduce Himalayan glacier dimensions and affect downstream river flows. Two glaciers having the same initial geometries were located (one each) in the headwaters of two identical nests of hypothetical catchments, representing contrasting climates in the west and east of the region. The hypothetical catchments were nested such that percentage ice cover declined with increasing basin area. Model parameters were validated against available but limited mass-balance and river flow measurements. The model was applied for 150 years from an arbitrary start date (1990), first with standard-period (1961-1990) climate data and then with application of a 0.06 °C year-1 transient climatic warming scenario.Under this warming scenario, Himalayan rivers fed by large glaciers descending through considerable elevation range will respond in a broadly similar manner, except that summer snowfall in the east will suppress the rate of initial flow increase, delay peak discharge and postpone eventual disappearance of the ice. Impacts of declining glacier area on river flow will be greater in

  11. Determing Credibility of Regional Simulations of Future Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mearns, L. O.

    2009-12-01

    Climate models have been evaluated or validated ever since they were first developed. Establishing that a climate model can reproduce (some) aspects of the current climate of the earth on various spatial and temporal scales has long been a standard procedure for providing confidence in the model's ability to simulate future climate. However, direct links between the successes and failures of models in reproducing the current climate with regard to what future climates the models simulate has been largely lacking. This is to say that the model evaluation process has been largely divorced from the projections of future climate that the models produce. This is evidenced in the separation in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) WG1 report of the chapter on evaluation of models from the chapter on future climate projections. There has also been the assumption of 'one model, one vote, that is, that each model projection is given equal weight in any multi-model ensemble presentation of the projections of future climate. There have been various attempts at determing measures of credibility that would avoid the 'ultrademocratic' assumption of the IPCC. Simple distinctions between models were made by research such as in Giorgi and Mearns (2002), Tebaldi et al., (2005), and Greene et al., (2006). But the metrics used were rather simplistic. More ambitous means of discriminating among the quality of model simulations have been made through the production of complex multivariate metrics, but insufficent work has been produced to verify that the metrics successfully discriminate in meaningful ways. Indeed it has been suggested that we really don't know what a model must successfully model to establish confidence in its regional-scale projections (Gleckler et al., 2008). Perhaps a more process oriented regional expert judgment approach is needed to understand which errors in climate models really matter for the model's response to future forcing. Such an approach

  12. Improvement of surface albedo parameterization within a regional climate model (RegCM3)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bao, Y.; Lü, S.

    2009-03-01

    A parameterization for calculating surface albedo of Solar Zenith Angel (SZA) dependence with coefficient for each vegetation type determined on the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) reformed by the Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) is incorporated within the latest Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model (RegCM3), and evaluated with a high resolution one-way nesting simulation in China using the Climate Research Unit (CRU) data and the observations from the Field Experiment on Interaction between Land and Atmosphere in Arid Region of Northwest China (NWC-ALIEX). The performance of the SZA method modeling surface characteristic is investigated.Results indicate, RegCM with SZA method (RCM_SZA) considerably improve the cold bias of original RegCM (RCM_ORI) in air surface temperature in East Asia with 1.2 degree increased in summer due to the lower albedo produced by SZA method which makes more solar radiation absorbed by the surface and used for heating the atmosphere near to the surface. The simulated diurnal cycle of ground temperature conforms fairly well to the observation in the nesting simulation in Northwest China, especially during the noon time when the SZA has the lowest value. However, the modification can not obviously affect the East Asia summer monsoon precipitation simulation although RCM_SZA produce more evapo-transpiration in surface with more than 2 Wm-2 increases in simulated latent heat fluxes both in East Asia and in Northwest China compared to RCM_ORI.

  13. Assessment of regional climate change and development of climate adaptation decision aids in the Southwestern US

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Darmenova, K.; Higgins, G.; Kiley, H.; Apling, D.

    2010-12-01

    Current General Circulation Models (GCMs) provide a valuable estimate of both natural and anthropogenic climate changes and variability on global scales. At the same time, future climate projections calculated with GCMs are not of sufficient spatial resolution to address regional needs. Many climate impact models require information at scales of 50 km or less, so dynamical downscaling is often used to estimate the smaller-scale information based on larger scale GCM output. To address current deficiencies in local planning and decision making with respect to regional climate change, our research is focused on performing a dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and developing decision aids that translate the regional climate data into actionable information for users. Our methodology involves development of climatological indices of extreme weather and heating/cooling degree days based on WRF ensemble runs initialized with the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis and the European Center/Hamburg Model (ECHAM5). Results indicate that the downscale simulations provide the necessary detailed output required by state and local governments and the private sector to develop climate adaptation plans. In addition we evaluated the WRF performance in long-term climate simulations over the Southwestern US and validated against observational datasets.

  14. Climate in Context - How partnerships evolve in regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parris, A. S.

    2014-12-01

    In 2015, NOAA's RISA program will celebrate its 20th year of exploration in the development of usable climate information. In the mid-1990s, a vision emerged to develop interdisciplinary research efforts at the regional scale for several important reasons. Recognizable climate patterns, such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), emerge at the regional level where our understanding of observations and models coalesce. Critical resources for society are managed in a context of regional systems, such as water supply and human populations. Multiple scales of governance (local, state, and federal) with complex institutional relationships can be examined across a region. Climate information (i.e. data, science, research etc) developed within these contexts has greater potential for use. All of this work rests on a foundation of iterative engagement between scientists and decision makers. Throughout these interactions, RISAs have navigated diverse politics, extreme events and disasters, socio-economic and ecological disruptions, and advances in both science and technology. Our understanding of information needs is evolving into a richer understanding of complex institutional, legal, political, and cultural contexts within which people can use science to make informed decisions. The outcome of RISA work includes both cases where climate information was used in decisions and cases where capacity for using climate information and making climate resilient decisions has increased over time. In addition to balancing supply and demand of scientific information, RISAs are engaged in a social process of reconciling climate information use with important drivers of society. Because partnerships are critical for sustained engagement, and because engagement is critically important to the use of science, the rapid development of new capacity in regionally-based science programs focused on providing climate decision support is both needed and challenging. New actors can bolster

  15. Book Review: Regional Hydrological Response to Climate Change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Koster, Randal

    1998-01-01

    The book being reviewed, Regional Hydrological Response to Climate Change, addresses the effects of global climate change, particularly global warming induced by greenhouse gas emissions, on hydrological budgets at the regional scale. As noted in its preface, the book consists of peer-reviewed papers delivered at scientific meetings held by the International Geographical Union Working Group on Regional Hydrological Response to Climate Change and Global Warming, supplemented with some additional chapters that round out coverage of the topic. The editors hope that this book will serve as "not only a record of current achievements, but also a stimulus to further hydrological research as the detail and spatial resolution of Global Climate Models improves". The reviewer found the background material on regional climatology to be valuable and the methodologies presented to be of interest. The value of the book is significantly diminished, however by the dated nature of some of the material and by large uncertainties in the predictions of regional precipitation change. The book would have been improved by a much more extensive documentation of the uncertainty associated with each step of the prediction process.

  16. Using NMME in Region-Specific Operational Seasonal Climate Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gronewold, A.; Bolinger, R. A.; Fry, L. M.; Kompoltowicz, K.

    2015-12-01

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center (NOAA/CPC) provides access to a suite of real-time monthly climate forecasts that comprise the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) in an attempt to meet increasing demands for monthly to seasonal climate prediction. While the graphical map forecasts of the NMME are informative, there is a need to provide decision-makers with probabilistic forecasts specific to their region of interest. Here, we demonstrate the potential application of the NMME to address regional climate projection needs by developing new forecasts of temperature and precipitation for the North American Great Lakes, the largest system of lakes on Earth. Regional opertional water budget forecasts rely on these outlooks to initiate monthly forecasts not only of the water budget, but of monthly lake water levels as well. More specifically, we present an alternative for improving existing operational protocols that currently involve a relatively time-consuming and subjective procedure based on interpreting the maps of the NMME. In addition, all forecasts are currently presented in the NMME in a probabilistic format, with equal weighting given to each member of the ensemble. In our new evolution of this product, we provide historical context for the forecasts by superimposing them (in an on-line graphical user interface) with the historical range of observations. Implementation of this new tool has already led to noticeable advantages in regional water budget forecasting, and has the potential to be transferred to other regional decision-making authorities as well.

  17. In Brief: U.S. regional impacts of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    2007-12-01

    On 4 December, the Pew Center on Global Climate Change released a report that assesses climate vulnerabilities in four different areas of the United States. ``Regional impacts of climate change: Four case studies in the United States'' notes that midwestern cities are likely to experience more frequent, longer, and hotter heat waves; that wildfires are likely to increase in the U.S. West; that sustaining fragile Gulf Coast wetlands ecosystems will be increasingly difficult due to climate change; and that the Chesapeake Bay may respond to climate change with more frequent and larger hypoxia events. The report indicates that adaptation measures need to be a critical component of any long-term U.S. climate strategy. ``The degree to which we can adapt to the consequences of climate change will be determined in large part by the policies and management practices we put in place today,'' said Pew Center president Eileen Claussen. For more information, visit the Web site: http://www.pewclimate.org.

  18. Climate fails to predict wood decomposition at regional scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bradford, Mark A.; Warren, Robert J., II; Baldrian, Petr; Crowther, Thomas W.; Maynard, Daniel S.; Oldfield, Emily E.; Wieder, William R.; Wood, Stephen A.; King, Joshua R.

    2014-07-01

    Decomposition of organic matter strongly influences ecosystem carbon storage. In Earth-system models, climate is a predominant control on the decomposition rates of organic matter. This assumption is based on the mean response of decomposition to climate, yet there is a growing appreciation in other areas of global change science that projections based on mean responses can be irrelevant and misleading. We test whether climate controls on the decomposition rate of dead wood--a carbon stock estimated to represent 73 +/- 6 Pg carbon globally--are sensitive to the spatial scale from which they are inferred. We show that the common assumption that climate is a predominant control on decomposition is supported only when local-scale variation is aggregated into mean values. Disaggregated data instead reveal that local-scale factors explain 73% of the variation in wood decomposition, and climate only 28%. Further, the temperature sensitivity of decomposition estimated from local versus mean analyses is 1.3-times greater. Fundamental issues with mean correlations were highlighted decades ago, yet mean climate-decomposition relationships are used to generate simulations that inform management and adaptation under environmental change. Our results suggest that to predict accurately how decomposition will respond to climate change, models must account for local-scale factors that control regional dynamics.

  19. Regional Climate Change Impacts in the United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hayhoe, K.; Burkett, V.; Grimm, N.; McCarthy, J.; Miles, E.; Overpeck, J.; Shea, E.; Wuebbles, D.

    2009-05-01

    Climate change will affect one region differently from another. For that reason, the U.S. Unified Synthesis Product "Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States" broke down its assessment of climate change impacts on the country into 8 regions. Key highlights include: In the Northeast, agricultural production, including dairy, fruit, and maple syrup, will be increasingly affected as favorable climates shift northward. In the Southeast, accelerated sea-level rise and increased hurricane intensity will have serious impacts. In the Midwest, under higher emissions scenarios, significant reductions in Great Lakes water levels will impact shipping, infrastructure, beaches, and ecosystems. In the Great Plains, projected increases in temperature, evaporation, and drought frequency exacerbate concerns regarding the region's declining water resources. In the Southwest, water supplies will become increasingly scarce, calling for trade-offs among competing uses, and potentially leading to conflict. In the Northwest, salmon and other cold-water species will experience additional stresses as a result of rising water temperatures and declining summer streamflows. In Alaska, thawing permafrost damages roads, runways, water and sewer systems, and other infrastructure. And in the U.S. islands in the Caribbean and Pacific, climate changes affecting coastal and marine ecosystems will have major implications for tourism and fisheries. In addition, significant sea-level rise and storm surge will affect coastal cities and ecosystems around the nation; low-lying and subsiding areas are most vulnerable.

  20. Nested Cohort

    Cancer.gov

    NestedCohort is an R software package for fitting Kaplan-Meier and Cox Models to estimate standardized survival and attributable risks for studies where covariates of interest are observed on only a sample of the cohort.

  1. Coupled terrestrial and aquatic regional responses to land use change and climate variability in a temperate New England watershed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wollheim, W. M.; Samal, N. R.; Zhou, Z.; Zuidema, S.; Stewart, R. J.; Mineau, M.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change and land use interact to alter hydrology, biogeochemistry, and ecosystem function. Regional scale analyses that link terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems across spatial scales are needed to understand the mechanisms of response and tradeoffs among different ecosystem services. We coupled the terrestrial ecosystem model, PnET, with a river network model, FrAMES, to explore how terrestrial and aquatic conditions simultaneously respond to variation and changes in climate and land use. We applied the coupled model to the Merrimack R. watershed, NH/MA, USA, to understand how impacts vary at different nested basin scales. The coupled PnET-FrAMES predicts variables relevant to key ecosystem services including snow pack, runoff, woody biomass accumulation, net carbon sequestration, nitrogen runoff, discharge, conductivity, water temperature, aquatic denitrification, and nitrogen flux. We used statistically downscaled high and low emission scenarios of GCMs (GFDL CM2.1) to explore projected future responses to 2100. Some variables were more sensitive (snowpack, runoff, net carbon sequestration, water temperature) than others (woody biomass, conductivity, nitrogen concentration) to interannual climate variability. Water quality and terrestrial ecosystem responses were more sensitive to land use changes. Water quality responses are buffered in large rivers due to the dilution capacity of forested areas of the watersheds, but this dilution capacity is altered by future climate changes. Coupled terrestrial-aquatic models at regional scales using downscale climate projections will be essential for planning adaption and mitigation strategies in response to future climate and land use change.

  2. Multi - Region Analysis of a New Climate Extremes Index

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dittus, A. J.; Karoly, D. J.; Lewis, S. C.; Alexander, L. V.

    2014-12-01

    In this study, a new Climate Extremes Index (CEI) is introduced, extending the earlier combined CEI proposed by Karl et al. (1996). It is based on the use of standard extreme indices derived from daily meteorological station data, facilitating the computation of this index and making use of two global gridded extreme indices datasets. The index combines the fraction of area experiencing extreme conditions in daily temperature and daily and annual precipitation, therefore representing a combined measure of extremes. The analysis of this index at the global scale is limited by data availability. In this study, the four continental-scale regions analysed are Europe, North America, Asia and Australia over the period from 1951 to 2010. Additionally, the index is also computed for the entire Northern Hemisphere, corresponding to the first CEI results at the hemispheric scale. Results show statistically significant increases in the percentage area experiencing much above average warm days and nights and much below average cool days and nights for all regions, with the exception of North America for maximum temperature extremes. Increases in the area affected by precipitation extremes are also found for the Northern Hemisphere regions, particularly Europe. This study shows the potential of this new index for climate monitoring and other applications by documenting large-scale changes in the areas experiencing climate extremes. Preliminary detection and attribution results will also be presented using extreme indices computed for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate model simulations (Sillmann et al., 2013). Karl, T. R., R. W. Knight, D. R. Easterling, and R. G. Quayle, 1996: Indices of climate change for the United States. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 279-292. Sillmann, J., V. V. Kharin, X. Zhang, F. W. Zwiers, and D. Bronaugh (2013), Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 1. Model evaluation in the present climate, J. Geophys

  3. Integrated regional changes in arctic climate feedbacks: Implications for the global climate system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGuire, A.D.; Chapin, F. S., III; Walsh, J.E.; Wirth, C.

    2006-01-01

    The Arctic is a key part of the global climate system because the net positive energy input to the tropics must ultimately be resolved through substantial energy losses in high-latitude regions. The Arctic influences the global climate system through both positive and negative feedbacks that involve physical, ecological, and human systems of the Arctic. The balance of evidence suggests that positive feedbacks to global warming will likely dominate in the Arctic during the next 50 to 100 years. However, the negative feedbacks associated with changing the freshwater balance of the Arctic Ocean might abruptly launch the planet into another glacial period on longer timescales. In light of uncertainties and the vulnerabilities of the climate system to responses in the Arctic, it is important that we improve our understanding of how integrated regional changes in the Arctic will likely influence the evolution of the global climate system. Copyright ?? 2006 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.

  4. Potential Impacts of Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winkler, J. A.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change is projected to have substantial impacts in the Great Lakes region of the United States. One intent of this presentation is to introduce the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments Center (GLISA), a recently-funded NOAA RISA center. The goals and unique organizational structure of GLISA will be described along with core activities that support impact and assessment studies in the region. Additionally, observed trends in temperature, precipitation including lake effect snowfall, and lake temperatures and ice cover will be summarized for the Great Lakes region, and vulnerabilities to, and potential impacts of, climate change will be surveyed for critical natural and human systems. These include forest ecosystems, water resources, traditional and specialized agriculture, and tourism/recreation. Impacts and vulnerabilities unique to the Great Lakes region are emphasized.

  5. Forecasting energy security impacts of biofuels using regional climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, X.; Campbell, E.; Snyder, M. A.; Sloan, L.; Kueppers, L. M.

    2010-12-01

    Production of biofuels in the U.S. is growing rapidly, with corn providing the dominant feedstock for current production and corn stover potentially providing a critical feedstock source for future cellulosic ethanol production. While production of domestic biofuels is thought to improve energy security, future changes in climate may impact crop yield variability and erode the energy security benefits of biofuels. Here we examine future yield variability for corn and soy using RegCM regional climate data from NARCAPP, historical agronomic data, and statistical models of yield variability. Our simulations of historical yield anomalies using monthly temperature and precipitation data from RegCM show robust relationships to observed yield anomalies. Simulations of future yield anomalies show increased yield variability relative to historical yield variability in the region of high corn production. Since variability in energy supply is a critical concern for energy security we suggest that the climate-induced yield variability on critical biofuels feedstocks be explored more widely.

  6. Partnerships in the Polar Regions: Climate to Classrooms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Warburton, J.; Bartholow, S.

    2013-12-01

    PolarTREC (Teachers and Researchers Exploring and Collaborating) is a program in which K-12 teachers spend 2-6 weeks participating in hands-on field research experiences in the polar regions which focus heavily on climate change and climate science. The goal of PolarTREC is to invigorate polar science education and understanding by bringing K-12 educators and polar researchers together. Through teachers, climate understanding can be shaped for the future by having scientifically literate students entering the workforce. Alone, PolarTREC reaches a myriad of classrooms throughout the country. With new partnerships of the National Park Service and Alaska Geographic, we developed additional field experiences in climate change education for teachers. Campaigns for climate literacy do impact students but are only effective with well-trained, experienced teachers. Our programmatic goal is to expand the opportunities for PolarTREC teachers to share their involvement in science with additional formal and informal educators. 'Teaching the teachers' will reach additional audiences in media, policy, and classrooms. Modeling this program, we designed and conducted teacher trainings on climate science in Denali National Park. Utilizing expert university faculty and park managers in climate science and PolarTREC alumni teachers, the program was touted as 'the best professional opportunity to date". This program gave new teachers the tools to adequately communicate climate science for a generation of scientifically literate students. This presentation will outline the practices used in creating and implementing a climate literacy program for teachers through partnerships that will effectively influence student learning.

  7. Regional Climate Change and Development of Public Health Decision Aids

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hegedus, A. M.; Darmenova, K.; Grant, F.; Kiley, H.; Higgins, G. J.; Apling, D.

    2011-12-01

    According to the World Heath Organization (WHO) climate change is a significant and emerging threat to public health, and changes the way we must look at protecting vulnerable populations. Worldwide, the occurrence of some diseases and other threats to human health depend predominantly on local climate patterns. Rising average temperatures, in combination with changing rainfall patterns and humidity levels, alter the lifecycle and regional distribution of certain disease-carrying vectors, such as mosquitoes, ticks and rodents. In addition, higher surface temperatures will bring heat waves and heat stress to urban regions worldwide and will likely increase heat-related health risks. A growing body of scientific evidence also suggests an increase in extreme weather events such as floods, droughts and hurricanes that can be destructive to human health and well-being. Therefore, climate adaptation and health decision aids are urgently needed by city planners and health officials to determine high risk areas, evaluate vulnerable populations and develop public health infrastructure and surveillance systems. To address current deficiencies in local planning and decision making with respect to regional climate change and its effect on human health, our research is focused on performing a dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to develop decision aids that translate the regional climate data into actionable information for users. WRF model is initialized with the Max Planck Institute European Center/Hamburg Model version 5 (ECHAM5) General Circulation Model simulations forced with the Special Report on Emissions (SRES) A1B emissions scenario. Our methodology involves development of climatological indices of extreme weather, quantifying the risk of occurrence of water/rodent/vector-borne diseases as well as developing various heat stress related decision aids. Our results indicate that the downscale simulations provide the necessary

  8. CLIMATE CONSTRAINTS AND ISSUES OF SCALE CONTROLLING REGIONAL BIOMES

    EPA Science Inventory

    The prosepct of climate change threatens to cause large changes in regional biomes. hese effects could be in the form of qualitative changes within biomes, as well as spatial changes in the boundaries of biomes. he boundaries, or ecotones, between biomes have been suggested as po...

  9. Downscaled Regional Climate Information for the Southeastern US

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Office of Research and Development in Research Triangle Park, NC, has been developing regional climate and air quality fields for North America for current and future periods. Research emphasis has been placed on evaluating near-s...

  10. ClimateImpactsOnline: A web platform for regional climate impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nocke, Thomas

    2013-04-01

    Climate change is widely known but there is often uncertainty about the specific effects. One of the key tasks is - beyond discussing climate change and its impacts in specialist groups - to present these to a wider audience. In that respect, decision-makers in the public sector as well as directly affected professional groups require to obtain easy-to-understand information. These groups are not made up of specialist scientists. This gives rise to two challenges: (1) the complex information must be presented such that it is commonly understood, and (2) access to the information must be easy. Interested parties do not have time to familiarize themselves over a lengthy period, but rather want to immediately work with the information. Beside providing climate information globally, regional information become of increasing interest for local decision making regarding awareness building and adaptation options. In addition, current web portals mainly focus on climate information, considering climate impacts on different sectors only implicitly. As solution, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and WetterOnline have jointly developed an Internet portal that is easy to use, groups together interesting information about climate impacts and offers it in a directly usable form. This new web portal ClimateImpactsOnline.com provides detailed information, combining multiple sectors for the test case of Germany. For this region, numerous individual studies on climate change have been prepared by various institutions. These studies differ in terms of their aim, region and time period of interest. Thus, the goal of ClimateImpactsOnline.com is to present a synthesized view on regional impacts of global climate change on hydrology, agriculture, forest, energy, tourism and health sector. The climate and impact variables are available on a decadal time resolution for the period from 1901-2100, combining observed data and future projections. Detailed information are presented

  11. Local weather, regional climate, and annual survival of the northern spotted owl

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Glenn, E.M.; Anthony, R.G.; Forsman, E.D.; Olson, G.S.

    2011-01-01

    We used an information-theoretical approach and Cormack-Jolly-Seber models for open populations in program MARK to examine relationships between survival rates of Northern Spotted Owls and a variety of local weather variables and long-term climate variables. In four of the six populations examined, survival was positively associated with wetter than normal conditions during the growing season or high summer temperatures. At the three study areas located at the highest elevations, survival was positively associated with winter temperature but also had a negative or quadratic relation with the number of storms and winter precipitation. A metaanalysis of all six areas combined indicated that annual survival was most strongly associated with phase shifts in the Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which reflect large-scale temperature and precipitation patterns in this region. Climate accounted for a variable amount (1-41%) of the total process variation in annual survival but for more year-to-year variation (3-66%) than did spatial variation among owl territories (0-7%). Negative associations between survival and cold, wet winters and nesting seasons were similar to those found in other studies of the Spotted Owl. The relationships between survival and growing-season precipitation and regional climate patterns, however, had not been reported for this species previously. Climate-change models for the first half of the 21st century predict warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers for the Pacific Northwest. Our results indicate that these conditions could decrease Spotted Owl survival in some areas. Copyright ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2011.

  12. Evaluation of global and regional climate simulations over Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nikulin, Grigory; Jones, Colin; Kjellström, Erik; Gbobaniyi, Emiola

    2013-04-01

    Two ensembles of climate simulations, one global and one regional, are evaluated and inter-compared over the Africa-CORDEX domain. The global ensemble includes eight coupled atmosphere ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) from the CMIP5 project with horizontal resolution varying from about 1° to 3°, namely CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-ES, NorESM1-M, EC-EARTH, MIROC5, GFDL-ESM2M and MPI-ESM-LR. In the regional ensemble all 8 AOGCMs are downscaled over the Africa-CORDEX domain at the Rossby Centre (SMHI) by a regional climate model - RCA4 at 0.44° resolution. The main focus is on ability of both global and regional ensembles to simulate precipitation in different climate zones of Africa. Precipitation climatology is characterized by seasonal means, inter-annual variability and by various characteristics of the rainy season: onset, cessation, mean intensity and intra-seasonal variability. To see potential benefits of higher resolution in the regional downscaling all precipitation statistics are inter-compared between the individual AOGCM-RCA4(AOGCM) pairs and between the two multi-model ensemble averages. A special attention in the study is on how the AOGCMs simulate teleconnection patterns of large-scale internal variability and how these teleconnection pattern are reproduced in the downscaled regional simulations.

  13. Impact of Asia Dust Aerosols on Regional Environment and Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, J.

    2015-12-01

    East Asia is a major dust source in the world and has great impacts on regional climate in Asia, where the large arid and semi-arid regions are. In this study, the typical transport paths of East Asia dust, which affect regional and global climates, are demonstrated and numerous effects of dust aerosols on clouds and precipitation primarily over East Asian arid and semi-arid regions are discussed. Compared with the dust aerosols of Saharan, those of East Asian are more absorptive of solar radiation, and can influence the cloud properties not only by acting as cloud condensation nuclei and ice nuclei but also through changing the relative humidity and stability of the atmosphere (via semi-direct effect). Converting visible light to thermal energy, dust aerosols can burn clouds to produce a warming effect on climate, which is opposite to the first and second indirect effects of aerosols. Over Asia arid and semi-arid regions, the positive feedback in the aerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction may aggravate drought in its inner land. Impact of Asia dust on regional environment, especially on haze weather, are also presented in this talk.

  14. Climate Change Projections of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP)

    SciTech Connect

    Mearns, L. O.; Sain, Steve; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Bukovsky, M. S.; McGinnis, Seth; Biner, S.; Caya, Daniel; Arritt, R.; Gutowski, William; Takle, Eugene S.; Snyder, Mark A.; Jones, Richard; Nunes, A M B.; Tucker, S.; Herzmann, D.; McDaniel, Larry; Sloan, Lisa

    2013-10-01

    We investigate major results of the NARCCAP multiple regional climate model (RCM) experiments driven by multiple global climate models (GCMs) regarding climate change for seasonal temperature and precipitation over North America. We focus on two major questions: How do the RCM simulated climate changes differ from those of the parent GCMs and thus affect our perception of climate change over North America, and how important are the relative contributions of RCMs and GCMs to the uncertainty (variance explained) for different seasons and variables? The RCMs tend to produce stronger climate changes for precipitation: larger increases in the northern part of the domain in winter and greater decreases across a swath of the central part in summer, compared to the four GCMs driving the regional models as well as to the full set of CMIP3 GCM results. We pose some possible process-level mechanisms for the difference in intensity of change, particularly for summer. Detailed process-level studies will be necessary to establish mechanisms and credibility of these results. The GCMs explain more variance for winter temperature and the RCMs for summer temperature. The same is true for precipitation patterns. Thus, we recommend that future RCM-GCM experiments over this region include a balanced number of GCMs and RCMs.

  15. Statistical downscaling and dynamical downscaling of regional climate in China: Present climate evaluations and future climate projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, Jianping; Niu, Xiaorui; Wang, Shuyu; Gao, Hongxia; Wang, Xueyuan; Wu, Jian

    2016-03-01

    Statistical downscaling and dynamical downscaling are two approaches to generate high-resolution regional climate models based on the large-scale information from either reanalysis data or global climate models. In this study, these two downscaling methods are used to simulate the surface climate of China and compared. The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) is cross validated and used to downscale the regional climate of China. Then, the downscaled historical climate of 1981-2000 and future climate of 2041-2060 are compared with that from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model driven by the European Center-Hamburg atmosphere model and the Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM) and the L'Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Coupled Model, version 5, coupled with the Nucleus for European Modelling of the ocean, low resolution (IPSL-CM5A-LR). The SDSM can reproduce the surface temperature characteristics of the present climate in China, whereas the WRF tends to underestimate the surface temperature over most of China. Both the SDSM and WRF require further work to improve their ability to downscale precipitation. Both statistical and dynamical downscaling methods produce future surface temperatures for 2041-2060 that are markedly different from the historical climatology. However, the changes in projected precipitation differ between the two downscaling methods. Indeed, large uncertainties remain in terms of the direction and magnitude of future precipitation changes over China.

  16. A framework for estimation of uncertainty in regional climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sokolov, Andrei; Monier, Erwan; Gao, Xiang; Schlosser, Adam; Scott, Jeff

    2015-04-01

    In this study we focus on four sources of uncertainties in climate projections: anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission scenarios, climate system response to external forcing, natural variability and inter-model differences in the patterns of regional climate change. The contributions of the first three sources are evaluated using the MIT IGSM-CAM framework, which links the MIT Integrated Global System Model to the NCAR Community Atmospheric Model. The MIT IGSM couples a model of world economy (Emission Prediction and Policy Analysis model, EPPA) with the MIT Earth System Model of intermediate complexity (MESM). The version of the MESM used in this study consists of a two-dimensional (zonaly averaged) atmospheric model with interactive chemistry, an ocean global circulation model and a land system model that simulates both physical and biogeochemical processes. The uncertainties associated with the inter-model differences in the patterns of regional climate change are evaluated using a pattern scaling approach. Namely, regional changes in surface air temperature and precipitation are obtained by scaling changes in the zonal mean simulated by the IGSM using regional patterns from simulations with different AR4 AOGCMs. We present results for two different regions, namely the contiguous United States and Northern Eurasia. Our results show that on short time scales uncertainty in surface warming are primarily caused by uncertainty in climate system response and natural variability. In contrast uncertainties in the changes in surface temperature on a century scale are mainly associated with different emissions scenarios. Different sources play more equal roles in the uncertainties in projected precipitations. In particular, natural variability and inter-model differences have a much large effect on changes in precipitation than on simulated surface warming.

  17. Spatial connectivity of urban clusters and regional climate effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jia, G.; Hu, Y.; Xu, R.

    2015-12-01

    Rapid urbanization in East Asia in past three decades is considered as a remarkable process that featured with expansion of urban clusters and tightened linkages within and among clusters. Such process could lead to much larger scale climate effects, and could even contribute to sub-regional and regional climate change. In large area of urban clusters with significant expansion of built-up in relatively short period, local urban heat islands could contribute to sub-regional climate forcing. Here we use visible/near infrared and thermal infrared satellite data to estimate multiple scale structure of urban clusters, and to assess effects of urban heat islands at local and regional scales in East Asia. Our estimates of urban extent were greater than previously reported in most global datasets. Strong spatial connection and internal expansion were found in major urban clusters in past 30 years, and was accelerated in past 10 years. Many city clusters were merging into each other, with gradual blurring boundaries and disappearing of gaps among member cities. Cities and towns were more connected with roads and commercial corridors, while wildland and urban greens became more isolated as patches among built-up areas. We would argue that in many cases in this region, urban clusters are no longer "islands", they are now "seas" in term of climate related urban canopy. Urban greens such as parks and plantation were long recognized for their cooling effects that buffer the urban heat island effect, however, such cooling effects tend to be weakened as their patches became smaller and isolated, and over dominated by urban surfaces. There were significant positive relations between urban fraction and urban heat island effects as demonstrated by VNIR and TIR data from multiple satellites. Those new estimates are expected to effectively improve climate simulation for better understanding the impacts of inter-connected urban clusters on air temperature, precipitation, wind speed

  18. Future U.S. ozone projections dependence on regional emissions, climate change, long-range transport and differences in modeling design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Hao; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Lei, Hang; Wuebbles, Donald J.

    2016-03-01

    A consistent modeling framework with nested global and regional chemical transport models (CTMs) is used to separate and quantitatively assess the relative contributions to projections of future U.S. ozone pollution from the effects of emissions changes, climate change, long-range transport (LRT) of pollutants, and differences in modeling design. After incorporating dynamic lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) from a global CTM, a regional CTM's representation of present-day U.S. ozone pollution is notably improved, especially relative to results from the regional CTM with fixed LBCs or from the global CTM alone. This nested system of global and regional CTMs projects substantial surface ozone trends for the 2050's: 6-10 ppb decreases under the 'clean' A1B scenario and ∼15 ppb increases under the 'dirty' A1Fi scenario. Among the total trends of future ozone, regional emissions changes dominate, contributing negative 25-60% in A1B and positive 30-45% in A1Fi. Comparatively, climate change contributes positive 10-30%, while LRT effects through changing chemical LBCs account for positive 15-20% in both scenarios, suggesting introducing dynamic LBCs could influence projections of the U.S. future ozone pollution with a magnitude comparable to effects of climate change alone. The contribution to future ozone projections due to differences in modeling design, including model formulations, emissions treatments, and other factors between the global and the nested regional CTMs, is regionally dependent, ranging from negative 20% to positive 25%. It is shown that the model discrepancies for present-day simulations between global and regional CTMs can propagate into future U.S. ozone projections systematically but nonlinearly, especially in California and the Southeast. Therefore in addition to representations of emissions change and climate change, accurate treatment of LBCs for the regional CTM is essential for projecting the future U.S. ozone pollution.

  19. Recent Rapid Regional Climate Warming on the Antarctic Peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaughan, D. G.; Marshall, G. J.; Connolley, W. M.; Parkinson, C.; Mulvaney, R.; Hodgson, D. A.; King, J. C.; Pudsey, C. J.; Turner, J.

    2002-12-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) confirmed that global warming was 0.6 ñ 0.2 degrees C during the 20th Century and cited increases in greenhouse gases as a likely contributor. But this average conceals the complexity of observed climate change, which is seasonally biased, decadally variable and geographically patchy. In particular, over the last 50 years three high-latitude areas have undergone recent rapid regional (RRR) warming ? substantially more rapid than the global mean. We discuss the spatial and temporal significance of RRR warming in one area, the Antarctic Peninsula. New analyses of station records show no ubiquitous polar amplification of global warming but significant RRR warming on the Antarctic Peninsula. We investigate the likelihood that this could be amplification of a global warming, and use climate-proxy data to indicate that this RRR warming on the Antarctic Peninsula is unprecedented over the last two millennia and unlikely to be a natural mode of variability. We can show a strong connection between RRR warming and reduced sea-ice duration in an area on the west of the Antarctic Peninsula, but here we cannot yet distinguish cause and effect. Thus for the present we cannot determine which process causes the RRR warming, and until the mechanism initiating and sustaining it is understood, and is convincingly reproduced in climate models, we lack a sound basis for predicting climate change in this region over the coming century.

  20. Evaluation of a High-Resolution Regional Climate Ensemble

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bruyere, C. L.; Tye, M. R.; Keellings, D.; Jaye, A.

    2014-12-01

    A high-resolution Regional Climate Ensemble is used to investigate the limits of predictability of climate simulations, with a focus on high-impact weather. A diverse set of approaches are being applied to examine the impact of the different physics parameterizations on the simulated climate and high-impact weather statistics and to determine the physics combinations that result in realistic scenarios. In this paper we focus on the ensemble members' ability to correctly simulate current climate variability in terms of: 1) extreme temperature and precipitation over different regions, and 2) tropical cyclone statistics. A twenty-four member physics ensemble of climate simulations has been generated using the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting Model (Skamarock et al. 2008). The ensemble model has been run over an extended North American domain of approximately 25° S to 70° N and from the African coast to the East Pacific, and at sufficient resolution to capture high-impact weather events. Skamarock, W., J. B. Klemp, J. Dudhia, D. O. Gill, D. Barker, M. G. Duda, X. Huang, and W. Wang, 2008: A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 3. NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-475+STR. Boulder, CO.

  1. Regional feedbacks under changing climate and land-use conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Batlle Bayer, L.; van den Hurk, B. J. J. M.; Strengers, B. J.; van Minnen, J. G.

    2012-04-01

    Ecosystem responses to a changing climate and human-induced climate forcings (e.g. deforestation) might amplify (positive feedback) or dampen (negative feedback) the initial climate response. Feedbacks may include the biogeochemical (e.g. carbon cycle) and biogeophysical feedbacks (e.g. albedo and hydrological cycle). Here, we first review the most important feedbacks and put them into the context of a conceptual framework, including the major processes and interactions between terrestrial ecosystems and climate. We explore potential regional feedbacks in four hot spots with pronounced potential changes in land-use/management and local climate: sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Europe, the Amazon Basin and South and Southeast Asia. For each region, the relevant human-induced climate forcings and feedbacks were identified based on published literature. When evapotranspiration is limited by a soil water deficit, heat waves in Europe are amplified (positive soil moisture-temperature feedback). Drought events in the Amazon lead to further rainfall reduction when water recycling processes are affected (positive soil moisture-precipitation feedback). In SSA, the adoption of irrigation in the commonly rainfed systems can modulate the negative soil moisture-temperature feedback. In contrast, future water shortage in South and Southeast Asia can turn the negative soil moisture-temperature feedback into a positive one. Further research including advanced modeling strategies is needed to isolate the dominant processes affecting the strength and sign of the feedbacks. In addition, the socio-economic dimension needs to be considered in the ecosystems-climate system to include the essential role of human decisions on land-use and land-cover change (LULCC). In this context, enhanced integration between Earth System (ES) and Integrated Assessment (IA) modeling communities is strongly recommended.

  2. Storm tracks in regional climate simulations:verification and changes with doubled CO2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Katzfey, J. J.

    1999-10-01

    The ability of the CSIRO Atmospheric Research's regional climate model (RCM) to simulate the mean July storm track over Australia is investigated in this study. The observed storm track is characterized by the time-averaged eddy kinetic energy in the ECMWF analyses for years 1985 1992. RCM runs nested within these analyses are used to verify the ability of the model to simulate the storm track with ''perfect'' boundary conditions. Comparison is also made with 20years of the CSIRO9 Mk2 global climate model (GCM) and the RCM nested within this GCM, for equilibrium simulations with both current and doubled CO2 levels. Correlations of the meridional wind with a point within the storm track over Australia are used to characterize the structure of the mean baroclinic wave within the storm track. The location of the storm tracks in both the RCM and the GCM are simulated very well. The main deficiency is the lack of intensity of the upper-level storm track, but the RCM is more realistic than the GCM, indicating that the intensity of the storm track is partly related to horizontal resolution. The mean wave structure in the GCM and the RCM simulations is very similar to observed. Under doubled CO2 conditions, both the upper-level jetstream and storm track intensify, and move equatorward, in response to the increasing upper-troposphere north south temperature gradient. In the lower troposphere, the mean and eddy kinetic energy decrease to the south-east of Australia in response to the decrease in the north south temperature gradient there. As a response to the generally decreasing mid-tropospheric north south temperature gradient, the mean baroclinic wave appears to become slightly more barotropic, as indicated by less tilt in the zonal direction.

  3. Effects of agricultural burning on nesting waterfowl

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fritzell, E.K.

    1975-01-01

    Agricultural burning in an intensively farmed region within Manitoba's pothole district is shown to affect the nesting activities of ground-nesting ducks. All species, except Blue-winged Teal (Anas discors), preferred unburned nest cover, although success was higher in burned areas, where predators may have exerted less influence. Attitudes of farmers, burning chronology, and nest destruction by fires are also reported.

  4. Can regional climate engineering save the summer Arctic sea ice?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tilmes, S.; Jahn, Alexandra; Kay, Jennifer E.; Holland, Marika; Lamarque, Jean-Francois

    2014-02-01

    Rapid declines in summer Arctic sea ice extent are projected under high-forcing future climate scenarios. Regional Arctic climate engineering has been suggested as an emergency strategy to save the sea ice. Model simulations of idealized regional dimming experiments compared to a business-as-usual greenhouse gas emission simulation demonstrate the importance of both local and remote feedback mechanisms to the surface energy budget in high latitudes. With increasing artificial reduction in incoming shortwave radiation, the positive surface albedo feedback from Arctic sea ice loss is reduced. However, changes in Arctic clouds and the strongly increasing northward heat transport both counteract the direct dimming effects. A 4 times stronger local reduction in solar radiation compared to a global experiment is required to preserve summer Arctic sea ice area. Even with regional Arctic dimming, a reduction in the strength of the oceanic meridional overturning circulation and a shut down of Labrador Sea deep convection are possible.

  5. Serenbe Nest Cottages

    SciTech Connect

    Butler, T.; Curtis, O.; Kim, E.; Roberts, S.; Stephenson, R.

    2012-12-01

    As part of the NAHB Research Center Industry Partnership, Southface partnered with Martin Dodson Builders and the Serenbe community on the construction of a new test home in the suburbs of Atlanta, GA in the mixed humid climate zone. The most recent subdivision within the Serenbe community, the Nest, will contain 15 small footprint cottage style homes, and Southface has selected Lot Nine, as the test home for this study. This Nest subdivision serves as a project showcase for both the builder partner and the Serenbe community as a whole. The planning and design incorporated into the Nest cottages will be implemented in each home within the subdivision. These homes addresses Building America Savings targets and serve as a basis of design for other homes Martin Dodson plans to build within the Serenbe community.

  6. Serenbe Nest Cottages

    SciTech Connect

    Butler, T.; Curtis, O.; Kim, E.; Roberts, S.; Stephenson, R.

    2012-12-01

    As part of the NAHB Research Center Industry Partnership, Southface partnered with Martin Dodson Builders and the Serenbe community on the construction of a new test home in the suburbs of Atlanta, GA, in the mixed humid climate zone. The most recent subdivision within the Serenbe community, the Nest, will contain 15 small footprint cottage-style homes, and Southface has selected Lot Nine, as the test home for this study. This Nest subdivision serves as a project showcase for both the builder partner and the Serenbe community as a whole. The planning and design incorporated into the Nest cottages will be implemented in each home within the subdivision. These homes addresses Building America savings targets and serve as a basis of design for other homes Martin Dodson plans to build within the Serenbe community.

  7. Future meteorological drought: projections of regional climate models for Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stagge, James; Tallaksen, Lena; Rizzi, Jonathan

    2015-04-01

    In response to the major European drought events of the last decade, projecting future drought frequency and severity in a non-stationary climate is a major concern for Europe. Prior drought studies have identified regional hotspots in the Mediterranean and Eastern European regions, but have otherwise produced conflicting results with regard to future drought severity. Some of this disagreement is likely related to the relatively coarse resolution of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and regional averaging, which tends to smooth extremes. This study makes use of the most current Regional Climate Models (RCMs) forced with CMIP5 climate projections to quantify the projected change in meteorological drought for Europe during the next century at a fine, gridded scale. Meteorological drought is quantified using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which normalize accumulated precipitation and climatic water balance anomaly, respectively, for a specific location and time of year. By comparing projections for these two indices, the importance of precipitation deficits can be contrasted with the importance of evapotranspiration increases related to temperature changes. Climate projections are based on output from CORDEX (the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment), which provides high resolution regional downscaled climate scenarios that have been extensively tested for numerous regions around the globe, including Europe. SPI and SPEI are then calculated on a gridded scale at a spatial resolution of either 0.44 degrees (~50 km) or 0.11 degrees (~12.5km) for the three projected emission pathways (rcp26, rcp45, rcp85). Analysis is divided into two major sections: first validating the models with respect to observed historical trends in meteorological drought from 1970-2005 and then comparing drought severity and frequency during three future time periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100) to the

  8. Late holocene climate changes in the Sea of Azov region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matishov, G. G.; Novenko, E. Yu.; Krasnorutskaya, K. V.

    2012-05-01

    The results of paleoclimatic reconstructions made with the help of the information-statistical method developed by V.A. Klimanov based on palynological data from the Sea of Azov bottom sediments. For the period of the last 3000 years, four phases of warm and dry climates and three phases of relatively cool and humid climates were identified. The latter phases were characterized by wider expansion of tree vegetation in the region around the Sea of Azov. The range of mean annual temperatures between warmer and cooler intervals was about 4°C.

  9. A conceptual framework for regional feedbacks in a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Batlle Bayer, L.; van den Hurk, B. J. J. M.; Strengers, B.

    2012-04-01

    Terrestrial ecosystems and climate influence each other through biogeochemical (e.g. carbon cycle) and biogeophysical (e.g. albedo, water fluxes) processes. These interactions might be disturbed when a climate human-induced forcing takes place (e.g. deforestation); and the ecosystem responses to the climate system might amplify (positive feedback) or dampen (negative feedback) the initial forcing. Research on feedbacks has been mainly based on the carbon cycle at the global scale. However, biogeophysical feedbacks might have a great impact at the local or regional scale, which is the main focus of this article. A conceptual framework, with the major interactions and processes between terrestrial ecosystems and climate, is presented to further explore feedbacks at the regional level. Four hot spots with potential changes in land use/management and climate are selected: sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Europe, the Amazon Basin and South and Southeast Asia. For each region, diverse climate human-induced forcings and feedbacks were identified based on relevant published literature. For Europe, the positive soil moisture-evapotranspiration (ET) is important for natural vegetation during a heat wave event, while the positive soil moisture-precipitation feedback plays a more important role for droughts in the Amazon region. Agricultural expansion in SSA will depend on the impacts of the changing climate on crop yields and the adopted agro-technologies. The adoption of irrigation in the commonly rainfed systems might turn the positive soil moisture- ET feedback into a negative one. In contrast, South and Southeast Asia might face water shortage in the future, and thus turning the soil moisture-ET feedback into a positive one. Further research is needed for the major processes that affect the ultimate sign of the feedbacks, as well as for the interactions, which effect remains uncertain, such as ET-precipitation interaction. In addition, socio-economic feedbacks need to be added

  10. Tropical deforestation: Modeling local- to regional-scale climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Henderson-Sellers, A.; Durbidge, T.B.; Pitman, A.J. ); Dickinson, R.E. ); Kennedy, P.J. ); McGuffie, K. )

    1993-04-20

    The authors report results from a model study using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (Version 1) general circulation model to assess the impact of regional scale deforestation on climate change. In the model a large parcel in the Amazon basin is changed from tropical rain forest to scrub grassland. Impacts can include adding CO[sub 2] to the atmosphere by biomass burning, increasing surface albedo, changing precipitation and evaporation rates, impacting soil moisture, and general weather patterns. They compare their model results with earlier work which has looked at this same problem.

  11. Solar Forcing of Regional Climate Change During the Maunder Minimum

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shindell, Drew T.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Mann, Michael E.; Rind, David; Waple, Anne; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    We examine the climate response to solar irradiance changes between the late 17th century Maunder Minimum and the late 18th century. Global average temperature changes are small (about 0.3 to 0.4 C) in both a climate model and empirical reconstructions. However, regional temperature changes are quite large. In the model, these occur primarily through a forced shift toward the low index state of the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation. This leads to colder temperatures over the Northern Hemisphere continents, especially in winter (1 to 2 C), in agreement with historical records and proxy data for surface temperatures.

  12. Agricultural pests under future climate conditions: downscaling of regional climate scenarios with a stochastic weather generator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirschi, M.; Stöckli, S.; Dubrovsky, M.; Spirig, C.; Rotach, M. W.; Calanca, P.; Samietz, J.

    2010-09-01

    As a consequence of current and projected climate change in temperate regions of Europe, agricultural pests and diseases are expected to occur more frequently and possibly to extend to previously unaffected regions. Given their economic and ecological relevance, detailed forecasting tools for various pests have been developed, which model the infestation depending on actual weather conditions. Assessing the future risk of pest-related damages therefore requires future weather data at high temporal and spatial resolution. In particular, pest forecast models are often not based on screen temperature and precipitation alone (i.e., the most generally projected climate variables), but might require input variables such as soil temperature, in-canopy net radiation or leaf wetness. Here, we use a stochastic weather and a re-sampling procedure for producing site-specific hourly weather data from regional climate change scenarios for 2050 in Switzerland. The climate change scenarios were derived from multi-model projections and provide probabilistic information on future regional changes in temperature and precipitation. Hourly temperature, precipitation and radiation data were produced by first generating daily weather data for these climate scenarios and then using a nearest neighbor re-sampling approach for creating realistic diurnal cycles. These hourly weather time series were then used for modeling important phases in the lifecycle of codling moth, the major insect pest in apple orchards worldwide. First results indicate a shift in the occurrence and duration of phases relevant for pest disease control for projected as compared to current climate (e.g. the flight of the codling moth starts about ten days earlier in future climate), continuing an already observed trend towards more favorable conditions for this insect during the last 20 years.

  13. Extreme events evaluation over African cities with regional climate simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bucchignani, Edoardo; Mercogliano, Paola; Simonis, Ingo; Engelbrecht, Francois

    2013-04-01

    The warming of the climate system in recent decades is evident from observations and is mainly related to the increase of anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations (IPCC, 2012). Given the expected climate change conditions on the African continent, as underlined in different publications, and their associated socio-economic impacts, an evaluation of the specific effects on some strategic African cities on the medium and long-term is of crucial importance with regard to the development of adaptation strategies. Assessments usually focus on averages climate properties rather than on variability or extremes, but often these last ones have more impacts on the society than averages values. Global Coupled Models (GCM) are generally used to simulate future climate scenarios as they guarantee physical consistency between variables; however, due to the coarse spatial resolution, their output cannot be used for impact studies on local scales, which makes necessary the generation of higher resolution climate change data. Regional Climate Models (RCM) describe better the phenomena forced by orography or by coastal lines, or that are related to convection. Therefore they can provide more detailed information on climate extremes that are hard to study and even harder to predict because they are, by definition, rare and obey different statistical laws. The normal bias of the RCM to represent the local climatology is reduced using adequate statistical techniques based on the comparison of the simulated results with long observational time series. In the framework of the EU-FP7 CLUVA (Climate Change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa) project, regional projections of climate change at high resolution (about 8 km), have been performed for selected areas surrounding five African cities. At CMCC, the regional climate model COSMO-CLM has been employed: it is a non-hydrostatic model. For each domain, two simulations have been performed, considering the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission

  14. Hydrologic simulations in the Rhine basin driven by a regional climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kleinn, J.; Frei, C.; Gurtz, J.; Lüthi, D.; Vidale, P. L.; SchäR, C.

    2005-02-01

    We describe and evaluate a model chain for studying streamflow responses to climate variations and anthropogenic climate change. The model chain was developed for the Rhine basin upstream of Cologne, a 145,000 km2 river basin in Central Europe north of the Alps. It encompasses a regional climate model (RCM) at grid spacings of 56 and 14 km, and a distributed hydrological model with a grid spacing of 1 km. The hydrological model is one-way nested into the RCM through a downscaling interface, which introduces fine-scale structures in the forcing data (i.e. temperature, precipitation, total net surface radiation, 10-m wind speed, and relative humidity). Biases in precipitation and temperature are accounted for by catchment-dependent but seasonally constant correction factors. Apart from these bias corrections, the hydrological model is forced by hourly RCM data. In the evaluation we compare a 5-year integration driven by observed lateral boundary conditions (ECMWF reanalysis) against daily analysis of high-density rain-gauge data and streamflow data. The regional climate model is found to qualitatively reproduce the main mesoscale precipitation patterns and their seasonal evolution. Systematic biases are, however, found in the distribution of precipitation with topographic height in the Alpine region and at adjacent hill ranges. The RCM also reproduces intercatchment variations in the frequency distribution of daily precipitation. Simulated runoff resembles closely the mean annual cycle, and daily runoff agrees well with observations in timing and amplitude of runoff events for lowland gauges. Larger model errors are found for high-altitude Alpine catchments. The 14-km RCM provides much finer and more realistic precipitation fields compared to the 56-km RCM, but these improvements did not have a significant impact on the skill of the hydrological model to simulate streamflow. The model chain was found to reproduce observed month-to-month variations of basin

  15. Development of Fok-I based nested polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis for detection of hepatitis B virus X region V5M mutation

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Hong; Hong, Seok-Hyun; Lee, Seoung-Ae; Gong, Jeong-Ryeol; Kim, Bum-Joon

    2015-01-01

    AIM: To develop a Fok-I nested polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis (PRA) method for the detection of hepatitis B virus X region (HBx) V5M mutation. METHODS: Nested PCR was applied into DNAs from 198 chronic patients at 2 different stages [121 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and 77 carrier patients]. To identify V5M mutants, digestion of nested PCR amplicons by the restriction enzyme Fok-I (GGA TGN9↓) was done. For size comparison, the enzyme-treated products were analyzed by electrophoresis on 2.5% agarose gels, stained with ethidium bromide, and visualized on a UV transilluminator. RESULTS: The assay enabled the identification of 69 patients (sensitivity of 34.8%; 46 HCC patients and 23 carrier patients). Our data also showed that V5M prevalence in HCC patients was significantly higher than in carrier patients (47.8%, 22/46 patients vs 0%, 0/23 patients, P < 0.001), suggesting that HBxAg V5M mutation may play a pivotal role in HCC generation in chronic patients with genotype C infections. CONCLUSION: The Fok-I nested PRA developed in this study is a reliable and cost-effective method to detect HBxAg V5M mutation in chronic patients with genotype C2 infection. PMID:26715821

  16. The hydrological cycle of the Niger River basin simulated by the CORDEX-Africa regional climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mascaro, G.; White, D. D.; Westerhoff, P.; Bliss, N.

    2015-12-01

    The Niger River Basin (NRB) is a large transnational watershed of ~1.5 million km2, whose water resources sustain more than 100 million people of nine countries in West Africa. Evaluating the reliability of climate simulations in the region is essential to support water sustainability and food security under possible future climatic changes and population growth. Here, we assess the ability of a set of state-of-the-art regional climate models (RCMs) of the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX)-Africa to reproduce the hydrologic cycle of the NRB. For this aim, we adopt a verification framework based on the mass conservation principle that assumes that the mean annual difference between precipitation and evaporation equals the long-term mean discharge. We focus on four nested sub-basins encompassing different climatic zones with available discharge observations. We found that most RCMs overestimate the mean annual runoff (from +10% to +400%), because of a positive bias in the simulation of precipitation and a weak hydrologic cycle in the evaporation channel. Some exceptions are found in the more humid sub-basin upstream where a few climate simulations are not able to capture the intensity of the West African monsoon. Analyses of the water balance components also revealed that the signature of the RCMs is more significant than that of the driving General Circulation Model, likely due to the specific schemes adopted in the RCMs to parameterize the land-surface processes. This work is useful to increase the utility of regional climate simulations in impact studies supporting the development of water management polices and
planning of hydraulic infrastructures in the basin.

  17. Impacts of climate change on mangrove ecosystems: A region by region overview

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ward, Raymond D.; Friess, Daniel A.; Day, Richard H.; MacKenzie, Richard A.

    2016-01-01

    Inter-related and spatially variable climate change factors including sea level rise, increased storminess, altered precipitation regime and increasing temperature are impacting mangroves at regional scales. This review highlights extreme regional variation in climate change threats and impacts, and how these factors impact the structure of mangrove communities, their biodiversity and geomorphological setting. All these factors interplay to determine spatially variable resiliency to climate change impacts, and because mangroves are varied in type and geographical location, these systems are good models for understanding such interactions at different scales. Sea level rise is likely to influence mangroves in all regions although local impacts are likely to be more varied. Changes in the frequency and intensity of storminess are likely to have a greater impact on N and Central America, Asia, Australia, and East Africa than West Africa and S. America. This review also highlights the numerous geographical knowledge gaps of climate change impacts, with some regions particularly understudied (e.g., Africa and the Middle East). While there has been a recent drive to address these knowledge gaps especially in South America and Asia, further research is required to allow researchers to tease apart the processes that influence both vulnerability and resilience to climate change. A more globally representative view of mangroves would allow us to better understand the importance of mangrove type and landscape setting in determining system resiliency to future climate change.

  18. Model experiments on climate change in the Tokyo metropolitan area using regional climate scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsunematsu, N.; Dairaku, K.

    2011-12-01

    There is a possibility that the future atmospheric warming leads to more frequent heavy rainfall in the metropolitan area, thereby increasing the risk of floods. As part of REsearch Program on Climate Change Adaptation (RECCA) funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan, we started numerical model experiments for investigating the vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in water hazard assessments in the metropolitan area by the use of regional climate scenarios. The model experiments adopt dynamical downscaling techniques. Future climate projections obtained from regional climate model simulations at 20 km horizontal grid spacing are downscaled into finer grids (less than 5 km resolutions) of Regional Atmospheric Modeling System Version 6.0 modified by National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED-RAMS). Prior to performing the dynamical downscaling experiments, the NIED-RAMS model biases are evaluated by comparing long-term surface meteorological observations with results of the model simulations that are carried out by using the Japanese Re-Analysis (JRA) data and Japan Meteorological Agency Meso-Scale Model outputs as the initial and boundary conditions.

  19. Precipitation frequency analysis based on regional climate simulations in Central Alberta

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuo, Chun-Chao; Gan, Thian Yew; Hanrahan, Janel L.

    2014-03-01

    A Regional Climate Model (RCM), MM5 (the Fifth Generation Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model), is used to simulate summer precipitation in Central Alberta. MM5 was set up with a one-way, three-domain nested framework, with domain resolutions of 27, 9, and 3 km, respectively, and forced with ERA-Interim reanalysis data of ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). The objective is to develop high resolution, grid-based Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves based on the simulated annual maximums of precipitation (AMP) data for durations ranging from 15-min to 24-h. The performance of MM5 was assessed in terms of simulated rainfall intensity, precipitable water, and 2-m air temperature. Next, the grid-based IDF curves derived from MM5 were compared to IDF curves derived from six RCMs of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) set up with 50-km grids, driven with NCEP-DOE (National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy) Reanalysis II data, and regional IDF curves derived from observed rain gauge data (RG-IDF). The analyzed results indicate that 6-h simulated precipitable water and 2-m temperature agree well with the ERA-Interim reanalysis data. However, compared to RG-IDF curves, IDF curves based on simulated precipitation data of MM5 are overestimated especially for IDF curves of 2-year return period. In contract, IDF curves developed from NARCCAP data suffer from under-estimation and differ more from RG-IDF curves than the MM5 IDF curves. The over-estimation of IDF curves of MM5 was corrected by a quantile-based, bias correction method. By dynamically downscale the ERA-Interim and after bias correction, it is possible to develop IDF curves useful for regions with limited or no rain gauge data. This estimation process can be further extended to predict future grid-based IDF curves subjected to possible climate change impacts based on climate

  20. {open_quotes}Feature{close_quotes} mapping of the HLA-C linked DNA region: Construction by sequencing from nested deletions

    SciTech Connect

    Krishnan, B.R.; Chaplin, D.D. |

    1994-09-01

    The HLA complex located on chromosome 6p spans {approximately}4 Mb and is gene dense. To enable systematic analysis of less well-characterized portions of HLA, we are defining significant {open_quotes}features{close_quotes} of these DNA regions: locations of putative genes (prediction of exons by GRAIL analysis) and Alu elements, regions with homology to the database, and regions of evolutionarily conserved DNA sequence. Initially, we cloned a 35 kb DNA segment adjacent to HLA-C into a transposon {gamma}{delta}-based cosmid vector designed for generating nested deletions in vivo. Over 70 informative nested deletions were obtained and sequenced by fluorescent-automated technology. Islands of DNA sequences were obtained and used to construct a feature map of the 35 kb HLA segment. Our data (i) defined the organization of the previously identified keratinocyte-specific S gene, (ii) generated the DNA sequence of two evolutionarily conserved DNA segments, and (iii) located otherwise undefined putative exons and Alu elements. The construction of such feature maps of large DNA segments using the nested deletion-sequencing approach provides an efficient means to identify DNA segments meriting systematic and detailed analysis.

  1. The Tectonic and Climatic Evolution of the Arabian Sea Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bosence, Dan

    2004-08-01

    This multi-authored volume provides a sampling of current research into the geology of the Arabian Sea region. The editors emphasize the importance of this area as the Earth's best natural laboratory for studying relations between climate and the growth and erosion of an orogenic belt. Uplift of the Himalaya and Tibetan Plateau is now believed to have altered global climate during the Cenozoic, and also to have affected the development of the region's monsoonal climate. The geological features of the region that make it a good area to study such processes include the excellent rock outcrops in the surrounding arid Arabian and Asian landmasses, the locally high rates of sedimentation which provide high-resolution sedimentological and geochemical information, and the monsoon itself, that imparts an annual time beat in some sedimentary successions. However, the region is very large and access is not always easy. Also, many areas are still poorly known geologically, such that this volume contains some papers on basic survey geology.

  2. The Tectonic and Climatic Evolution of the Arabian Sea Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bosence, Dan

    2004-08-01

    This multi-authored volume provides a sampling of current research into the geology of the Arabian Sea region. The editors emphasize the importance of this area as the Earth's best natural laboratory for studying relations between climate and the growth and erosion of an orogenic belt.Uplift of the Himalaya and Tibetan Plateau is now believed to have altered global climate during the Cenozoic, and also to have affected the development of the region's monsoonal climate. The geological features of the region that make it a good area to study such processes include the excellent rock outcrops in the surrounding arid Arabian and Asian landmasses, the locally high rates of sedimentation which provide high-resolution sedimentological and geochemical information, and the monsoon itself, that imparts an annual time beat in some sedimentary successions. However, the region is very large and access is not always easy. Also, many areas are still poorly known geologically such that this volume contains some papers on basic survey geology.

  3. Performance of the CORDEX-Africa regional climate simulations in representing the hydrological cycle of the Niger River basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mascaro, Giuseppe; White, Dave D.; Westerhoff, Paul; Bliss, Nadya

    2015-12-01

    The water resources of the Niger River basin (NRB) in West Africa are crucial to support the socioeconomic development of nine countries. In this study, we compared and evaluated performances of simulations at 0.44° resolution of several regional climate models (RCMs) of the Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) in reproducing the statistical properties of the hydrological cycle of the NRB in the current climate. To capture the large range of climatic zones in the region, analyses were conducted by spatially averaging the water balance components in four nested subbasins. Most RCMs overestimate (order of +10% to +400%, depending on model and subbasin) the mean annual difference between precipitation (P) and evaporation (E), whose observed value was assumed equal to the long-term discharge based on the mass conservation principle. This is due to a tendency to simulate larger mean annual P and a weak hydrological cycle in the E channel. Some exceptions appear in the humid most-upstream subbasin, where a few RCMs underestimate P. Overall, the representation of the water balance is mostly sensitive to the parameterized land surface and atmospheric processes of the nested RCMs, with less influence of the driving general circulation model. This finding is supported by further analyses on seasonal cycle and spatial variability of the water balance components and on model performances in reproducing observed climatology. Results of this work should be considered when RCMs are used directly or in impact studies to develop policies and plan investments aimed at ensuring water sustainability in the NRB.

  4. Holocene climate changes in the Cape Hatteras region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naughton, F.; Keigwin, L. D.; Peteet, D. M.; Desprat, S.; Oliveira, D.; Abrantes, F.

    2013-12-01

    In the last century many studies have been done in various naturally occurring archives to understand the nature, timing and causes of Holocene natural climate oscillations. Most of the available Holocene climatic reconstructions are however, not based on a direct comparison of terrestrial, marine and ice records making it difficult to obtain an accurate understanding of the interactions of the atmosphere-ocean-land systems and their relationship in global climate variability. Few studies based on direct sea land comparison have been reported for some key areas of the eastern North Atlantic but almost none in the western North Atlantic. Here we present a direct comparison between terrestrial (pollen) and marine (planktonic δ18O) proxies from a well dated (ten AMS 14C dates on planktonic foraminifera and seaweed) slope core (KNR 178-2 JPC 32), retrieved close to Cape Hatteras (35°58.58'N, 74°42.77'W, 1006 m). This study provides information on eastern North America vegetation and on the northwestern Atlantic sea surface response to both Holocene long-term and rapid climate changes. Five intervals, marked mainly by changes in temperate trees are associated with long term climate shifts (12000-9150 ka; 9150-7250 ka; 7250-5350 ka; 5350-2800 ka; 2800-700 ka). Over these intervals, several abrupt cooling events are noted, as well as several indications of shifts in moisture. The comparison of our data with those available and unpublished records from several key sites of the North Atlantic region, gives insights into the nature, timing and causes of Holocene climate oscillations in the North Atlantic region and in particular off Cape Hatteras.

  5. Use of Climatic Information In Regional Water Resources Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Claps, P.

    Relations between climatic parameters and hydrological variables at the basin scale are investigated, with the aim of evaluating in a parsimonious way physical parameters useful both for a climatic classification of an area and for supporting statistical models of water resources assessment. With reference to the first point, literature methods for distributed evaluation of parameters such as temperature, global and net solar radiation, precipitation, have been considered at the annual scale with the aim of considering the viewpoint of the robust evaluation of parameters based on few basic physical variables of simple determination. Elevation, latitude and average annual number of sunny days have demonstrated to be the essential parameters with respect to the evaluation of climatic indices related to the soil water deficit and to the radiative balance. The latter term was evaluated at the monthly scale and validated (in the `global' term) with measured data. in questo caso riferite al bilancio idrico a scala annuale. Budyko, Thornthwaite and Emberger climatic indices were evaluated on the 10,000 km2 territory of the Basilicata region (southern Italy) based on a 1.1. km grid. They were compared in terms of spatial variability and sensitivity to the variation of the basic variables in humid and semi-arid areas. The use of the climatic index data with respect to statistical parameters of the runoff series in some gauging stations of the region demonstrated the possibility to support regionalisation of the annual runoff using climatic information, with clear distinction of the variability of the coefficient of variation in terms of the humidity-aridity of the basin.

  6. Planetary boundary layer energetics simulated from a regional climate model over Europe for present climate and climate change conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sánchez, E.; Yagüe, C.; Gaertner, M. A.

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a description of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) for current (1960-1990) and future (2070-2100) climate periods as obtained from a regional climate model (RCM) centered on the Mediterranean basin. Vertically integrated turbulent kinetic energy (TKEZ) and boundary layer height (z i ) are used to describe PBL energetics. Present climate shows a TKEZ annual cycle with a clear summer maximum for southern regions, while northern regions of Europe exhibit a smoother or even a lack of cycle. Future climate conditions exhibit a similar behaviour, with an increase in the summer maximum peaks. A detailed analysis of summer surface climate change energetics over land shows an increased Bowen ratio and decreases in the evaporative fraction. The enhanced sensible heat flux responsible for these results causes an energy surplus inside the PBL, resulting in increased convective activity and corresponding TKEZ. These results are consistent with temperature increases obtained by several other model simulations, and also indicate that changes in the turbulent transport from the PBL to the free troposphere can affect atmospheric circulations.

  7. Linking the Weather Generator with Regional Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dubrovsky, Martin; Farda, Ales; Skalak, Petr; Huth, Radan

    2013-04-01

    One of the downscaling approaches, which transform the raw outputs from the climate models (GCMs or RCMs) into data with more realistic structure, is based on linking the stochastic weather generator with the climate model output. The present contribution, in which the parametric daily surface weather generator (WG) M&Rfi is linked to the RCM output, follows two aims: (1) Validation of the new simulations of the present climate (1961-1990) made by the ALADIN-Climate Regional Climate Model at 25 km resolution. The WG parameters are derived from the RCM-simulated surface weather series and compared to those derived from weather series observed in 125 Czech meteorological stations. The set of WG parameters will include statistics of the surface temperature and precipitation series (including probability of wet day occurrence). (2) Presenting a methodology for linking the WG with RCM output. This methodology, which is based on merging information from observations and RCM, may be interpreted as a downscaling procedure, whose product is a gridded WG capable of producing realistic synthetic multivariate weather series for weather-ungauged locations. In this procedure, WG is calibrated with RCM-simulated multi-variate weather series in the first step, and the grid specific WG parameters are then de-biased by spatially interpolated correction factors based on comparison of WG parameters calibrated with gridded RCM weather series and spatially scarcer observations. The quality of the weather series produced by the resultant gridded WG will be assessed in terms of selected climatic characteristics (focusing on characteristics related to variability and extremes of surface temperature and precipitation). Acknowledgements: The present experiment is made within the frame of projects ALARO-Climate (project P209/11/2405 sponsored by the Czech Science Foundation), WG4VALUE (project LD12029 sponsored by the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of CR) and VALUE (COST ES 1102

  8. Cloud-resolving regional climate modeling approach in decade-long simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ban, Nikolina; Schmidli, Jürg; Schär, Christoph

    2014-05-01

    The uncertainties in current global and regional climate model integrations are partly related to the representation of clouds, moist convection, and complex topography. Reducing the grid spacing down to some few kilometers and switching off the convection parameterization (cloud-resolving models) is thus an attractive approach. On climate time scales, cloud-resolving methods have been used for process studies, but application to long-term scenario simulations has been very limited. Here we present cloud-resolving simulations for 10-year-long periods integrated with the COSMO-CLM model and driven by reanalysis data (for present day climate) and a global climate model (control and scenario run). Two one-way nested grids are used with horizontal resolutions of 2.2 km for a cloud-resolving model (CRM) over an extended Alpine domain (1100 km x 1100 km), and 12 km for a cloud-parameterizing simulation (CPM) covering Europe. The CRM is driven by lateral boundary conditions from the CPM run, while the CPM run is driven by lateral boundary conditions from ERA-Interim reanalysis and the Earth-System Model of the Max-Planck-Institut (MPI-ESM-LR). Validation is conducted against high-resolution surface data. The CRM model strongly improves the simulation of the diurnal cycles of temperature and precipitation, while CPM has a poor diurnal cycle associated with the use of parameterized convection. The assessment of precipitation statistics reveals that both models adequately represent the frequency-intensity distribution for day-long events. For hourly events the CRM has a realistic representation of heavy precipitation events, while the CPM suffers from a strong underestimation. We also present results on the scaling of precipitation extremes with local daily-mean temperature and preliminary results on the projection of heavy precipitation events.

  9. The regional aerosol-climate model REMO-HAM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pietikäinen, J.-P.; O'Donnell, D.; Teichmann, C.; Karstens, U.; Pfeifer, S.; Kazil, J.; Podzun, R.; Fiedler, S.; Kokkola, H.; Birmili, W.; O'Dowd, C.; Baltensperger, U.; Weingartner, E.; Gehrig, R.; Spindler, G.; Kulmala, M.; Feichter, J.; Jacob, D.; Laaksonen, A.

    2012-03-01

    REMO-HAM is a new regional aerosol-climate model. It is based on the REMO regional climate model and includes all of the major aerosol processes. The structure for aerosol is similar to the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM, for example the aerosol module HAM-M7 has been coupled with a two-moment stratiform cloud scheme. In this work, we have evaluated the model and compared the results against ECHAM5-HAM and measurements. Four different measurement sites was chosen for the comparison of total number concentrations, size distributions and gas phase sulfur dioxide concentrations: Hyytiälä in Finland, Melpitz in Germany, Mace Head in Ireland and Jungfraujoch in Switzerland. REMO-HAM is run with two different resolutions: 50×50 km2 and 10×10 km2. Based on our simulations, REMO-HAM can represent the measured values reasonably well. The total number concentrations are slightly underestimated, which is probably due to the missing boundary layer nucleation and online secondary organic aerosol model. The differences in the total number concentrations between REMO-HAM and ECHAM5-HAM can be mainly explained by the difference in the nucleation mode. From the meteorological point of view, REMO-HAM represents the precipitation fields and 2 m temperature profile very well compared to measurement. Overall, we have shown that REMO-HAM is a functional aerosol-climate model, which will be used in further studies.

  10. Sensitivity of Regional Climate to Deforestation in the Amazon Basin

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.; Bras, Rafael L.

    1994-01-01

    The deforestation results in several adverse effect on the natural environment. The focus of this paper is on the effects of deforestation on land-surface processes and regional climate of the Amazon basin. In general, the effect of deforestation on climate are likely to depend on the scale of the defrosted area. In this study, we are interested in the effects due to deforestation of areas with a scale of about 250 km. Hence, a meso-scale climate model is used in performing numerical experiments on the sensitivity of regional climate to deforestation of areas with that size. It is found that deforestation results in less net surface radiation, less evaporation, less rainfall, and warmer surface temperature. The magnitude of the of the change in temperature is of the order 0.5 C, the magnitudes of the changes in the other variables are of the order of IO%. In order to verify some of he results of the numerical experiments, the model simulations of net surface radiation are compared to recent observations of net radiation over cleared and undisturbed forest in the Amazon. The results of the model and the observations agree in the following conclusion: the difference in net surface radiation between cleared and undisturbed forest is, almost, equally partioned between net solar radiation and net long-wave radiation. This finding contributes to our understanding of the basic physics in the deforestation problem.

  11. Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ineson, Sarah; Maycock, Amanda C.; Gray, Lesley J.; Scaife, Adam A.; Dunstone, Nick J.; Harder, Jerald W.; Knight, Jeff R.; Lockwood, Mike; Manners, James C.; Wood, Richard A.

    2015-06-01

    Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations.

  12. Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum.

    PubMed

    Ineson, Sarah; Maycock, Amanda C; Gray, Lesley J; Scaife, Adam A; Dunstone, Nick J; Harder, Jerald W; Knight, Jeff R; Lockwood, Mike; Manners, James C; Wood, Richard A

    2015-01-01

    Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations. PMID:26102364

  13. Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum

    PubMed Central

    Ineson, Sarah; Maycock, Amanda C.; Gray, Lesley J.; Scaife, Adam A.; Dunstone, Nick J.; Harder, Jerald W.; Knight, Jeff R.; Lockwood, Mike; Manners, James C.; Wood, Richard A.

    2015-01-01

    Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations. PMID:26102364

  14. NATURAL AND ATHROPOGENIC FACTORS AFFECTING GLOBAL AND REGIONAL CLIMATE

    EPA Science Inventory

    New England weather is highly variable for a number of
    reasons. Our regional climate is also quite variable. The
    winters of the past decade are milder than they were in the
    1960s and 1970s but as the ice-out and snowfall data show
    (Figs 2.5 and 2.6), the patterns of c...

  15. Cenozoic climate and paleogeographic changes in the Pacific region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cronin, T. M.; Ogasawara, K.; Wolfe, J.A.

    1994-01-01

    This special issue represents the proceedings of the symposium, held as part of the 29th International Geological Congress, 1992. Other relevant papers on Cainozoic climate change in Japan are also included. Data is assembled from the Pacific Ocean itself, its marginal seas, in particular the Sea of Japan, and the surrounding coastal states. The palaeoenvironment of the region is reconstructed from the analysis of micropalaeontological, isotopic and stratigraphic data from deep-sea and terrestrial cores. -S.J.Stone

  16. Regional Risk Assessment for climate change impacts on coastal aquifers.

    PubMed

    Iyalomhe, F; Rizzi, J; Pasini, S; Torresan, S; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

    2015-12-15

    Coastal aquifers have been identified as particularly vulnerable to impacts on water quantity and quality due to the high density of socio-economic activities and human assets in coastal regions and to the projected rising sea levels, contributing to the process of saltwater intrusion. This paper proposes a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology integrated with a chain of numerical models to evaluate potential climate change-related impacts on coastal aquifers and linked natural and human systems (i.e., wells, river, agricultural areas, lakes, forests and semi-natural environments). The RRA methodology employs Multi Criteria Decision Analysis methods and Geographic Information Systems functionalities to integrate heterogeneous spatial data on hazard, susceptibility and risk for saltwater intrusion and groundwater level variation. The proposed approach was applied on the Esino River basin (Italy) using future climate hazard scenarios based on a chain of climate, hydrological, hydraulic and groundwater system models running at different spatial scales. Models were forced with the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario for the period 2071-2100 over four seasons (i.e., winter, spring, summer and autumn). Results indicate that in future seasons, climate change will cause few impacts on the lower Esino River valley. Groundwater level decrease will have limited effects: agricultural areas, forests and semi-natural environments will be at risk only in a region close to the coastline which covers less than 5% of the total surface of the considered receptors; less than 3.5% of the wells will be exposed in the worst scenario. Saltwater intrusion impact in future scenarios will be restricted to a narrow region close to the coastline (only few hundred meters), and thus it is expected to have very limited effects on the Esino coastal aquifer with no consequences on the considered natural and human systems. PMID:26282744

  17. Linking Output from regional Climat Models with Cryosphere Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winter, S.

    2003-04-01

    This study has the objective of linking the results of a low-resolution regional climate model (RCM) with high-resolution cryosphere models in order to determine the manner in which Alpine snow, ice and permafrost is likely to respond to enhanced atmospheric warming resulting from an increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases. There are several constraints that need to be overcome prior to applying solutions to this problem. Firstly, as a result of the long response time of glaciers and alpine permafrost to climate change, long-term simulations of at least 30 years are required. Secondly, the smallest possible spatial resolution of current RCM still remains quite coarse (~ 50 km) because of the complex mathematical equations to be resolved in the RCM, the limited computer performance and the above mentioned long simulation period. On the other hand, cryosphere models used in the present study require gridded input climate variables with a typical mesh width of 50 m. The proposed solution consists in combining climate change data based on RCM scenarios with meteorological data of high elevation Alpine stations measured during a reference period. A RCM control run matching this reference period is required in order to quantify the expected change for each climate parameter. This approach allows breaking down the initial downscaling problem into two separate steps. First, the quantified change derived from RCM-control and scenario simulations is used to predict change for meteorological stations. Second, data sets of predicted change and meteorological measures of these stations are summed and then regionalized for the study area based on advanced algorithms and GIS techniques. Selecting a case study area close to one or more meteorological stations should minimize the associated regionalization error. A pilot study for a small area at Piz Corvatsch in the Eastern Swiss Alps has been designed. The A2 scenario of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

  18. Context Dependent Effect of Landscape on the Occurrence of an Apex Predator across Different Climate Regions

    PubMed Central

    Fujita, Go; Azuma, Atsuki; Nonaka, Jun; Sakai, Yoshiaki; Sakai, Hatsumi; Iseki, Fumitaka; Itaya, Hiroo; Fukasawa, Keita; Miyashita, Tadashi

    2016-01-01

    In studies of habitat suitability at landscape scales, transferability of species-landscape associations among sites are likely to be critical because it is often impractical to collect datasets across various regions. However, limiting factors, such as prey availability, are not likely to be constant across scales because of the differences in species pools. This is particularly true for top predators that are often the target for conservation concern. Here we focus on gray-faced buzzards, apex predators of farmland-dominated landscapes in East Asia. We investigated context dependency of “buzzard-landscape relationship”, using nest location datasets from five sites, each differing in landscape composition. Based on the similarities of prey items and landscape compositions across the sites, we determined several alternative ways of grouping the sites, and then examined whether buzzard-landscape relationship change among groups, which was conducted separately for each way of grouping. As a result, the model of study-sites grouping based on similarities in prey items showed the smallest ΔAICc. Because the terms of interaction between group IDs and areas of broad-leaved forests and grasslands were selected, buzzard-landscape relationship showed a context dependency, i.e., these two landscape elements strengthen the relationship in southern region. The difference in prey fauna, which is associated with the difference in climate, might generate regional differences in the buzzard-landscape associations. PMID:27123930

  19. Context Dependent Effect of Landscape on the Occurrence of an Apex Predator across Different Climate Regions.

    PubMed

    Fujita, Go; Azuma, Atsuki; Nonaka, Jun; Sakai, Yoshiaki; Sakai, Hatsumi; Iseki, Fumitaka; Itaya, Hiroo; Fukasawa, Keita; Miyashita, Tadashi

    2016-01-01

    In studies of habitat suitability at landscape scales, transferability of species-landscape associations among sites are likely to be critical because it is often impractical to collect datasets across various regions. However, limiting factors, such as prey availability, are not likely to be constant across scales because of the differences in species pools. This is particularly true for top predators that are often the target for conservation concern. Here we focus on gray-faced buzzards, apex predators of farmland-dominated landscapes in East Asia. We investigated context dependency of "buzzard-landscape relationship", using nest location datasets from five sites, each differing in landscape composition. Based on the similarities of prey items and landscape compositions across the sites, we determined several alternative ways of grouping the sites, and then examined whether buzzard-landscape relationship change among groups, which was conducted separately for each way of grouping. As a result, the model of study-sites grouping based on similarities in prey items showed the smallest ΔAICc. Because the terms of interaction between group IDs and areas of broad-leaved forests and grasslands were selected, buzzard-landscape relationship showed a context dependency, i.e., these two landscape elements strengthen the relationship in southern region. The difference in prey fauna, which is associated with the difference in climate, might generate regional differences in the buzzard-landscape associations. PMID:27123930

  20. Early Benefits of Mitigation in Risk of Regional Climate Extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ciavarella, Andrew; Stott, Peter; Lowe, Jason

    2015-04-01

    Large differences in climate outcomes are projected over the coming century depending on whether greenhouse gas emissions continue on a business as usual path or are substantially reduced following an aggressive mitigation strategy. However, it has previously been claimed that it will take many decades for there to be any significant difference between paths of aggressive mitigation and business as usual with the emergence of differences only seen towards the middle of the century. Here we show that important differences in our exposure to risk of climate extremes in many land regions emerges much more quickly. Without substantial mitigation, in many regions of the world, extreme (one in 20-year) seasonal, regional near surface air temperatures are found to have become more than twice as likely within only 15 years (i.e. by 2030). Therefore our exposure to climate risk is reduced substantially and rapidly with aggressive mitigation. This demonstrates that the benefits of mitigation are realised rapidly and it is not necessary to wait until the middle of the century as has previously been claimed.

  1. Regional differences in climate change of the ionosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lastovicka, Jan

    2016-07-01

    The increasing concentration of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide CO2, in the atmosphere affects not only the troposphere and surface climate, it affects the whole atmosphere-ionosphere system and it induces long-term trends and/or climate change in the ionosphere. The geographic distribution of CO2 in the upper atmosphere/ionosphere is relatively homogeneous and the long-term increase of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is known to be stable. However, there are some other secondary drivers of long-term trends in the upper atmosphere/ionosphere, whose long-term behavior and/or effects either are not spatially homogeneous or are not stable in time (or both). Geomagnetic activity, solar activity, secular change of the Earth's magnetic field, long-term evolution of stratospheric ozone concentration and atmospheric wave activity are such trend drivers. They are responsible for regional differences in trends and also for their temporal non-stability. Regions of strong trends as a consequence of regional differences of trends represent a specific kind of risk from the point of view of space/ionospheric climate. These features of ionospheric trends will briefly be treated in this presentation.

  2. The Challenge of Simulating the Regional Climate over Florida

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Misra, V.; Mishra, A. K.

    2015-12-01

    In this study we show that the unique geography of the peninsular Florida with close proximity to strong mesoscale surface ocean currents among other factors warrants the use of relatively high resolution climate models to project Florida's hydroclimate. In the absence of such high resolution climate models we highlight the deficiencies of two relatively coarse spatial resolution CMIP5 models with respect to the warm western boundary current of the Gulf Stream. As a consequence it affects the coastal SST and the land-ocean contrast, affecting the rainy summer seasonal precipitation accumulation over peninsular Florida. We also show this through two sensitivity studies conducted with a regional coupled ocean atmosphere model with different bathymetries that dislocate and modulate the strength of the Gulf Stream that locally affects the SST in the two simulations. These studies show that a stronger and more easterly displaced Gulf Stream produces warmer coastal SST's along the Atlantic coast of Florida that enhances the precipitation over peninsular Florida relative to the other regional climate model simulation. However the regional model simulations indicate that variability of wet season rainfall variability in peninsular Florida becomes less dependent on the land-ocean contrast with a stronger Gulf Stream current.

  3. Rain attenuation prediction during rain events in different climatic regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Das, Dalia; Maitra, Animesh

    2015-06-01

    A rain attenuation prediction method has been applied to different climatic regions to test the validity of the model. The significant difference in rain rate and attenuation statistics for the tropical and temperate region needs to be considered in developing channel model to predict time series of rain attenuation for earth space communication links. Model parameters obtained for a tropical location has been successfully applied to predict time series of rain attenuation at other tropical locations. Separate model parameters are derived from the experimental data obtained at a temperate location and these are used to predict rain attenuation during rain events for other temperate locations showing the effectiveness of the technique.

  4. Verification of regional climates of GISS GCM. Part 1: Winter

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Druyan, Leonard M.; Rind, David

    1988-01-01

    Verification is made of the synoptic fields, sea level pressure, precipitation rate, 200 mb zonal wind and the surface resultant wind, generated by two versions of the GISS climate model. The models differ regarding the horizontal resolution of the computational grids and the specification of the sea surface temperatures. Maps of the regional distributions of seasonal variations of the model fields are shown alongside maps showing the observed distributions. Comparisons of the model results with observations are discussed, and also summarized in tables according to geographic regions.

  5. Verification of regional climates of GISS GCM. Part 2: Summer

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Druyan, Leonard M.; Rind, David

    1989-01-01

    Verification is made of the synoptic fields, sea-level pressure, precipitation rate, 200mb zonal wind and the surface resultant wind generated by two versions of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model. The models differ regarding the horizontal resolution of the computation grids and the specification of the sea-surface temperatures. Maps of the regional distributions of seasonal means of the model fields are shown alongside maps that show the observed distributions. Comparisons of the model results with observations are discussed and also summarized in tables according to geographic region.

  6. Climate change and vector-borne diseases: a regional analysis.

    PubMed Central

    Githeko, A. K.; Lindsay, S. W.; Confalonieri, U. E.; Patz, J. A.

    2000-01-01

    Current evidence suggests that inter-annual and inter-decadal climate variability have a direct influence on the epidemiology of vector-borne diseases. This evidence has been assessed at the continental level in order to determine the possible consequences of the expected future climate change. By 2100 it is estimated that average global temperatures will have risen by 1.0-3.5 degrees C, increasing the likelihood of many vector-borne diseases in new areas. The greatest effect of climate change on transmission is likely to be observed at the extremes of the range of temperatures at which transmission occurs. For many diseases these lie in the range 14-18 degrees C at the lower end and about 35-40 degrees C at the upper end. Malaria and dengue fever are among the most important vector-borne diseases in the tropics and subtropics; Lyme disease is the most common vector-borne disease in the USA and Europe. Encephalitis is also becoming a public health concern. Health risks due to climatic changes will differ between countries that have developed health infrastructures and those that do not. Human settlement patterns in the different regions will influence disease trends. While 70% of the population in South America is urbanized, the proportion in sub-Saharan Africa is less than 45%. Climatic anomalies associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon and resulting in drought and floods are expected to increase in frequency and intensity. They have been linked to outbreaks of malaria in Africa, Asia and South America. Climate change has far-reaching consequences and touches on all life-support systems. It is therefore a factor that should be placed high among those that affect human health and survival. PMID:11019462

  7. Initializing decadal climate predictions over the North Atlantic region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matei, Daniela Mihaela; Pohlmann, Holger; Jungclaus, Johann; Müller, Wolfgang; Haak, Helmuth; Marotzke, Jochem

    2010-05-01

    Decadal climate prediction aims to predict the internally-generated decadal climate variability in addition to externally-forced climate change signal. In order to achieve this it is necessary to start the predictions from the current climate state. In this study we investigate the forecast skill of the North Atlantic decadal climate predictions using two different ocean initialization strategies. First we apply an assimilation of ocean synthesis data provided by the GECCO project (Köhl and Stammer, 2008) as initial conditions for the coupled model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Hindcast experiments are then performed over the period 1952-2001. An alternative approach is one in which the subsurface ocean temperature and salinity are diagnosed from an ensemble of ocean model runs forced by the NCEP-NCAR atmospheric reanalyzes for the period 1948-2007, then nudge into the coupled model to produce initial conditions for the hindcast experiments. An anomaly coupling scheme is used in both approaches to avoid the hindcast drift and the associated initial shock. Differences between the two assimilation approaches are discussed by comparing them with the observational data in key regions and processes. We asses the skill of the initialized decadal hindcast experiments against the prediction skill of the non-initialized hindcasts simulation. We obtain an overview of the regions with the highest predictability from the regional distribution of the anomaly correlation coefficients and RMSE for the SAT. For the first year the hindcast skill is increased over almost all ocean regions in the NCEP-forced approach. This increase in the hindcast skill for the 1 year lead time is somewhat reduced in the GECCO approach. At lead time 5yr and 10yr, the skill enhancement is still found over the North Atlantic and North Pacific regions. We also consider the potential predictability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and Nordic Seas Overflow by comparing the predicted values to

  8. Regional and Global Climate Response to Anthropogenic SO2 Emissions from China in Three Climate Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kasoar, M.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Bellouin, Nicholas; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Tsigaridis, Kostas

    2016-01-01

    We use the HadGEM3-GA4, CESM1, and GISS ModelE2 climate models to investigate the global and regional aerosol burden, radiative flux, and surface temperature responses to removing anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from China. We find that the models differ by up to a factor of 6 in the simulated change in aerosol optical depth (AOD) and shortwave radiative flux over China that results from reduced sulfate aerosol, leading to a large range of magnitudes in the regional and global temperature responses. Two of the three models simulate a near-ubiquitous hemispheric warming due to the regional SO2 removal, with similarities in the local and remote pattern of response, but overall with a substantially different magnitude. The third model simulates almost no significant temperature response. We attribute the discrepancies in the response to a combination of substantial differences in the chemical conversion of SO2 to sulfate, translation of sulfate mass into AOD, cloud radiative interactions, and differences in the radiative forcing efficiency of sulfate aerosol in the models. The model with the strongest response (HadGEM3-GA4) compares best with observations of AOD regionally, however the other two models compare similarly (albeit poorly) and still disagree substantially in their simulated climate response, indicating that total AOD observations are far from sufficient to determine which model response is more plausible. Our results highlight that there remains a large uncertainty in the representation of both aerosol chemistry as well as direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects in current climate models, and reinforces that caution must be applied when interpreting the results of modelling studies of aerosol influences on climate. Model studies that implicate aerosols in climate responses should ideally explore a range of radiative forcing strengths representative of this uncertainty, in addition to thoroughly evaluating the models used against

  9. CORDEX.be: COmbining Regional climate Downscaling EXpertise in Belgium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Termonia, Piet; Van Schaeybroeck, Bert; De Ridder, Koen; Fettweis, Xavier; Gobin, Anne; Luyten, Patrick; Marbaix, Philippe; Pottiaux, Eric; Stavrakou, Trissevgeni; Van Lipzig, Nicole; van Ypersele, Jean-Pascal; Willems, Patrick

    2016-04-01

    The main objective of the ongoing project CORDEX.be, "COmbining Regional Downscaling EXpertise in Belgium: CORDEX and Beyond" is to gather existing and ongoing Belgian research activities in the domain of climate modelling to create a coherent scientific basis for future climate services in Belgium. The project regroups eight Belgian Institutes under a single research program of the Belgian Science Policy (BELSPO). The project involves three regional climate models: the ALARO model, the COSMO-CLM model and the MAR model running according to the guidelines of the CORDEX project and at convection permitting resolution on small domains over Belgium. The project creates a framework to address four objectives/challenges. First, this projects aims to contribute to the EURO-CORDEX project. Secondly, RCP simulations are executed at convection-permitting resolutions (3 to 5 km) on small domains. Thirdly, the output of the atmospheric models is used to drive land surface models (the SURFEX model and the Urbclim model) with urban modules, a crop model (REGCROP), a tides and storm model (COHERENS) and the MEGAN-MOHYCAN model that simulates the fluxes emitted by vegetation. Finally, one work package will translate the uncertainty present in the CORDEX database to the high-resolution output of the CORDEX.be project. The organization of the project will be presented and first results will be shown, demonstrating that convection-permitting models can add extra skill to the mesoscale version of the regional climate models, in particular regarding the extreme value statistics and the diurnal cycle.

  10. On how climate variability influences regional sea level change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brunnabend, Sandra-Esther; Kusche, Jürgen; Rietbroek, Roelof; Forootan, Ehsan

    2016-04-01

    Regional trends in sea level change are strongly influenced by climate variations, such as ENSO (El-Nino Southern Oscillation), the IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole), or the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation). Hence, before computing long term regional sea level change, these sea level variations need to be taken into account as they lead to strong dependencies of computed regional sea level trends on the time period of the investigation. In this study, sea level change during the years 1993 to 2013 is analysed to identify the dominant modes of sea level change caused by climate variations. Here, two different gridded altimetry products are analysed, namely ESA's combined CCI SeaLevel v1.1 ECV product (doi: 10.5270/esa-sea_level_cci-1993_2013-v_1.1-201412), and absolute dynamic topography produced by Ssalto/Duacs and distributed by Aviso, with support from Cnes (http://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/duacs/). Reconstructions using the different decomposition techniques including the standard principle component analysis (PCA), rotated empirical orthogonal functions (REOF) and independent component analysis (ICA) method are analysed. They are compared with sea level change modelled with the global finite-element sea-ice ocean model (FESOM). The results indicate that from the applied methods, ICA is most suitable to separate the individual climate variability signals in independent modes of sea level change. This especially holds for extracting the ENSO contribution in sea level changes, which was better separated by applying ICA, from both altimetry and modelled sea level products. In addition, it is presented how modelled sea level change reflects climate variations compared to that identified in the altimetry products.