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Sample records for nino southern oscillation

  1. El Nino --- Southern Oscillation Impact Prediction

    SciTech Connect

    Nicholls, N.

    1988-02-01

    The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon affects the atmosphere and ocean over much of the globe. The resultant atmospheric and oceanic anomalies can produce a variety of biological and societal impacts. Three examples of impacts that may be predictable by monitoring simple indices of ENSO are discussed. The advantages and disadvantages of such direct'' prediction of impacts are considered.

  2. A model El Nino-Southern Oscillation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zebiak, Stephen E.; Cane, Mark A.

    1987-01-01

    A coupled atmosphere-ocean model is developed and used to study the ENSO (El Nino/Southern Oscillation) phenomenon. With no anomalous external forcing, the coupled model reproduces certain key features of the observed phenomenon, including the recurrence of warm events at irregular intervals with a preference for three to four years. It is shown that the mean sea surface temperature, wind and ocean current fields determine the characteristic spatial structure of ENSO anomalies. The tendency for phase-locking of anomalies is explained in terms of a variation in coupling strength associated with the annual cycle in the mean fields. Sensitivity studies reveal that both the amplitude and the time scale of the oscillation are sensitive to several parameters that affect the strength of the atmosphere-ocean coupling. Stronger coupling implies larger oscillations with a longer timescale. A critical element of the model oscillation is the variability in the equatorial heat content of the upper ocean. Equatorial heat content increases prior to warm events and decreases sharply during the events. A theory for this variability and the associated transitions between non-El Nino and El Nino states is presented. Implications of the model results for the prediction of El Nino events are discussed.

  3. A theory for El Nino and the Southern Oscillation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cane, M. A.; Zebiak, S. E.

    1985-01-01

    A coupled atmosphere-ocean model is presented for El Nino and the Southern Oscillation that reproduces its major features, including its recurrence at irregular intervals. The interannual El Nino-Southern Oscillation cycle is maintained by deterministic interactions in the tropical Pacific region. Ocean dynamics alter sea-surface temperature, changing the atmospheric heating; the resulting changes in surface wind alter the ocean dynamics. Annually varying mean conditions largely determine the spatial pattern and temporal evolution of El Nino events.

  4. Theory for El Nino and the Southern Oscillation

    SciTech Connect

    Cane, M.A.; Zebiak, S.E.

    1985-05-31

    A coupled atmosphere-ocean model is presented for El Nino and the Southern Oscillation that reproduces its major features, including its recurrence at irregular intervals. The interannual El Nino-Southern Oscillation cycle is maintained by deterministic interactions in the tropical Pacific region. Ocean dynamics alter sea-surface temperature, changing the atmospheric heating; the resulting changes in surface wind alter the ocean dynamics. Annually varying mean conditions largely determine the spatial pattern and temporal evolution of El Nino events. 20 references, 3 figures.

  5. El Nino: Historical and paleoclimatic aspects of the Southern Oscillation

    SciTech Connect

    Diaz, H.F.; Markgraf, V.

    1992-01-01

    This book about El Nino/Southern Oscillation is divided into the following major sections: ENSO in the modern record; the use of historical records in ENSO reconstruction; Paleoclimate reconstructions of ENSO from tree-ring records, ice cores, corals; Low resolution paleoclimatic reconstruction of ENSO from marine and terrestrial proxy indicators. The overall theme of the book is the that improved reliability of individual ENSO indices might be achieved by pooling together as many of the proxy series as feasible.

  6. The Child's Tantrum: El Nino. The Origin of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Picault, Joel; Hackert, Eric; Busalacchi, Antonio; Murtugudde, Ragu; Lagerloef, Gary

    2000-01-01

    In 1997, a child's tantrums caught the world's attention. These tantrums took the form not of crying and foot stamping, but of droughts and floods. Obviously, this was no ordinary child. It was, in fact, The Child, or El Nino, as it was, named in the late 1800s by South American observers, who noted that its timing coincided with the Christmas holiday. El Nino is a reversal in sea surface temperature (SST) distributions that occurs once every few years in the tropical Pacific. When it coincides with a cyclical shift in air pressure, known as the Southern Oscillation, normal weather patterns are drastically altered. The combined phenomenon is known as El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Although ENSO is a regular phenomenon, it was unusually strong in 1997. It produced heavy rainfall and floods in California and bestowed spring-like temperatures on the Midwest during the winter. These drastic changes in normal weather patterns captured the public imagination, from news reports to jokes on late-night talk shows. Naturally, people wanted to. know as much, about El Nino as possible. Fortunately, scientists had at their disposal new satellites and ocean sensors that provided an unprecedented level of information. Consequently, not only was the 1997 ENSO the strongest in recent memory, but it was also the most thoroughly studied. Prominent groups such as the NASA Seasonalto-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) combined numerous aspects of climate modeling into a single, predictive endeavor.

  7. The El Nino/Southern Oscillation and Future Soybean Prices

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Keppenne, C.

    1993-01-01

    Recently, it was shown that the application of a method combining singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and the maximum entropy method to univariate indicators of the coupled ocean-atmosphere El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon can be helpful in determining whether an El Nino (EN) or La Nina (LN) event will occur. SSA - a variant of principal component analysis applied in the time domain - filters out variability unrelated to ENSO and separates the quasi-biennial (QB), two-to-three year variability, from a lower-frequency (LF) four-to-six year EN-LN cycle; the total variance associated with ENSO combines the QB and LF modes. ENSO has been known to affect weather conditions over much of the globe. For example, EN events have been connected with unusually rainy weather over the Central and Western US, while the opposite phases of the oscillation (LN) have been plausibly associated with extreme dry conditions over much of the same geographical area...

  8. Ionospheric Effects of Strong El Nino Southern Oscillation Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Immel, T. J.; England, S.; Forbes, J. M.; Nguyen, V.; Lieberman, R. S.; Maute, A. I.; Greer, K.

    2015-12-01

    The current prediction for the occurrence of a very strong positive phase in the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in late 2015 has implications for weather around the entire planet. Furthermore, recent investigations show that ENSO-related changes in tropospheric water vapor and rainfall drive extraordinary changes in the temperature and wind structure in the middle atmosphere, through the modification of the spectrum of atmospheric tides. Given that several components of the tidal spectrum can propagate into the thermosphere, ENSO-related changes at altitudes above the mesopause and into the ionosphere may be expected. We will show the ionospheric and thermospheric variations expected for El Niño and La Niña conditions. These efforts are enabled in part by modeling capabilities developed for the upcoming NASA Ionospheric Connection Explorer mission.

  9. 40-50 day oscillation and the El-Nino/Southern Oscillation - a new perspective

    SciTech Connect

    Lau, K.M.; Chan, P.H.

    1986-05-01

    The tropical ocean-atmosphere exhibits two prominent modes of low-frequency oscillations, i.e, the 40-50 day oscillation and the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The two phenomena are viewed in the same perspective from 10 years of satellite-derived out-going-longwave-radiation data. Results reveal some interesting features that may lead to new insights into the understanding of the two phenomena.

  10. Atmospheric carbon dioxide, the southern oscillation, and the weak 1975 El Nino

    SciTech Connect

    Bacostow, R.B.; Adams, J.A.; Keeling, C.D.; Moss, D.J.; Whorf, T.P.; Wong, C.S.

    1980-10-03

    The observed rate of change of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration at the South Pole, Fanning Island, Hawaii, and ocean weather station P correlates with an index of the southern oscillation and with El Nino occurrences. There are changes at all four stations that seem to be in response to the weak 1975 El Nino. Thus, even poorly developed El Nino events may affect the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration.

  11. El Nino Southern Oscillation and Tuna in the Western Pacific

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lehodey, P.; Bertignac, M.; Hampton, J.; Lewis, A.; Picaut, J.

    1997-01-01

    Nearly 70% of the world's annual tuna harvest, currently 3.2 million tonnes, comes from the Pacific Ocean. Skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis) dominate the catch. Although skipjack are distributed in the surface mixed layer throughout the equatorial and subtropical Pacific, catches are highest in the western equatorial Pacific warm pool, a region characterized by low primary productivity rates that has the warmest surface waters of the world's oceans. Assessments of tuna stocks indicate that recent western Pacific skipjack catches approaching one million tonnes annually are sustainable. The warm pool, which is fundamental to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Earth's climate in general, must therefore also provide a habitat capable of supporting this highly productive tuna population. Here we show that apparent spatial shifts in the skipjack population are linked to large zonal displacements of the warm pool that occur during ENSO events. This relationship can be used to predict (several months in advance) the region of highest skipjack abundance, within a fishing ground extending over 6,000 km along the Equator.

  12. The El-Nino, the Southern Oscillation and the earth rotation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eubanks, T. M.; Steppe, J. A.; Dickey, J. O.

    1986-01-01

    The relationship between length of day (LOD) variations and the Southern Oscillation (SO), and with the associated El Nino phenomenon, is studied. Interannual changes in the LOD are shown to be linearly related to a SO sea level pressure index. A possible physical mechanism for this relationship is the thermal winds caused by changes in the equator to pole heat transports associated with El Nino events and the SO.

  13. Optimizing irrigation strategies as influenced by El Nino southern oscillation

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) can cause a systematic El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) coupling with the atmosphere to produce predictable weather patterns in much of North America. Adapting irrigation strategies for drought tolerant crops like cotton [Gossypium hirsu...

  14. El Nino-southern oscillation related fluctuations of the marine carbon cycle

    SciTech Connect

    Winguth, A.M.E.; Heimann, M.; Kurz, K.D.; Maier-Reimer, E.; Mikolajewicz, U.; Segschneider, J. )

    1994-03-01

    The yearly increase in global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is not constant, fluctuating around a mean growth rate. Some previous work has been done looking at the relationship of CO2 fluctuations with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the Pacific. This paper describes the response of the three-dimensional ocean circulation model (Hamburg LSG) coupled on-line with a oceanic carbon cycle model (HAMOCC-3) to realistic wind and air temperature field anomalies. The focus is the marine carbon cycle and the interannual variations of carbon fluxes between ocean and atmosphere during the strong El Nino of 1982/83. 53 refs., 14 figs.

  15. El Nino: Historical and paleoclimatic aspects of the southern oscillation

    SciTech Connect

    Diaz, H.F.; Markgraf, V.

    1992-01-01

    This book, including 22 papers by well-known authorities, presents a balanced picture of the possible types of information that can be bound about the past occurrence of El Nino. Topics presented include the following: oxygen-isotope analyses of ice cores in the Andes; tree-ring growth; trace mineral concentrations in annual layers of coral reefs; Nile River flood records back 13 centuries. The book is accessible to outsiders whose interests require a knowledge of El Nino and its historical manifestations.

  16. Length-of-day variations caused by El Nino-Southern Oscillation and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chao, B. Fong

    1989-01-01

    Two prominent interannual atmospheric fluctuations, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation in the troposphere-ocean system and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in the equatorial stratosphere, account for most of the observed interannual length-of-day (LOD) variation from 1964 through 1987, with a relative contribution of about 2 to 1. Thus the atmosphere-LOD connection extends from seasonal and shorter periods to interannual periods up to about 10 years.

  17. El Nino/Southern Oscillation response to global warming.

    PubMed

    Latif, M; Keenlyside, N S

    2009-12-01

    The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, originating in the Tropical Pacific, is the strongest natural interannual climate signal and has widespread effects on the global climate system and the ecology of the Tropical Pacific. Any strong change in ENSO statistics will therefore have serious climatic and ecological consequences. Most global climate models do simulate ENSO, although large biases exist with respect to its characteristics. The ENSO response to global warming differs strongly from model to model and is thus highly uncertain. Some models simulate an increase in ENSO amplitude, others a decrease, and others virtually no change. Extremely strong changes constituting tipping point behavior are not simulated by any of the models. Nevertheless, some interesting changes in ENSO dynamics can be inferred from observations and model integrations. Although no tipping point behavior is envisaged in the physical climate system, smooth transitions in it may give rise to tipping point behavior in the biological, chemical, and even socioeconomic systems. For example, the simulated weakening of the Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient in the Hadley Centre model (with dynamic vegetation included) caused rapid Amazon forest die-back in the mid-twenty-first century, which in turn drove a nonlinear increase in atmospheric CO(2), accelerating global warming. PMID:19060210

  18. Influence of El Nino Southern Oscillation on the Mesospheric Temperature

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Li, Tao; Calvo, Natalia; Yue, Jia; Dou, Xiankang; Russell, J. M, III; Mlynczak, M. G.; She, Chiao-Yao; Xue, Xianghui

    2013-01-01

    Using the middle atmosphere temperature data set observed by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) satellite experiment between 2002 and 2012, and temperatures simulated by the Whole Atmospheric Community Climate Model version 3.5 (WACCM3.5) between 1953 and 2005, we studied the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on middle atmosphere temperature during the Northern Hemisphere (NH) wintertime. For the first time, a significant winter temperature response to ENSO in the middle mesosphere has been observed, with an anomalous warming of approximately 1.0 K/MEI (Multivariate ENSO Index) in the tropics and an anomalous cooling of approximately 2.0 K/MEI in the NH middle latitudes. The observed temperature responses to ENSO in the mesosphere are opposite to those in the stratosphere, in agreement with previous modeling studies. Temperature responses to ENSO observed by SABER show similar patterns to those simulated by the WACCM3.5 model. Analysis of the WACCM3.5 residual mean meridional circulation response to ENSO reveals a significant downwelling in the tropical mesosphere and upwelling in the NH middle and high latitudes during warm ENSO events, which is mostly driven by anomalous eastward gravity wave forcing in the NH mesosphere.

  19. El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impact on tuna fisheries in Indian Ocean.

    PubMed

    Kumar, Palanisamy Satheesh; Pillai, Gopalakrishna N; Manjusha, Ushadevi

    2014-01-01

    El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of interannual variations in climate and ecosystem productivity in tropical regions. However, detailed information about this important phenomenon of the Indian Ocean is scarce. Consequently, the objective of this study is to improve understanding of the impact of warm event El Nino and cool event La Nina on annual tuna landings from the Indian Ocean from 1980 to 2010. In this study, maximum tuna landings were recorded during a weak El Nino year (1456054 t in 2006) and during a weak La Nina year (1243562 t in 2000), although the lowest tuna catch was followed during the strong El Nino year (1204119 t in 2009) and during a strong La Nina year (706546 t in 1988). Validation of predicted tuna landings and SST were showing a significant positive correlation (p < 0.01) was observed all the major tuna species except Southern Bluefin Tuna. Whereas the other relationships such as sea level pressure, Wind actions; Zonal Wind (U), Meridonial Wind (V), and Scalar Wind (W) are less well-defined. In contrast with principal component analysis we find that Principal Components 1 explains 75.5% of the total variance and suggest that sea surface temperature plays a major role in determining tuna availability in the region especially during warm event El Nino years; landings in Indian Ocean tend to be optimum SST 25 to 26°C in ENSO event. Our results confirm the ENSO impact on climate, tuna abundance and production in the Indian Ocean. However, among the oceanic variables SST explained the highest deviance in generalized additive models and therefore considered the best habitat predictor in the Indian Ocean followed by sea level pressure and Winds (U, V, W). PMID:26034673

  20. Equatorial Pacific response to the 1982/1983 El Nino-Southern Oscillation event

    SciTech Connect

    Tang, T.Y.; Weisberg, R.H.

    1984-01-01

    The ocean's response to the 1982/83 El Nino-Southern Oscillation event was the largest ever documented. In this paper the authors explore the effects of certain details of the observed zonal wind stress anomaly field upon the ocean's response using a linear, adiabatic, reduced gravity, analytical model. The increase in magnitude of the downwelling response over the composite of previous El Nino events is attributed to the eastward translation of the observed westerly wind anomaly and the double peaked downwelling at the South American coast is attributed to the amplitude modulation of this anomaly. Effects of an easterly anomaly which appeared to the west of the dateline midway through the event are also considered.

  1. Rainfall shortage and El Nino-southern oscillation in New Caledonia, Southwestern Pacific

    SciTech Connect

    Morliere, A.; Rebert, J.P.

    1986-06-01

    About three months after the beginning of an El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) year, a rainfall shortage develops over all of New Caledonia (21/sup 0/S, 165/sup 0/E) and lasts for 12 months. There is, on the average, a 22% decrease over the mean monthly rainfalls for one year. This result is based on the study of a rainfall composite and of a composite obtained from the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) extracting more than half of the variance over 30 years of measurement at 18 stations.

  2. El Nino-southern oscillation displacements of the western equatorial Pacific warm pool

    SciTech Connect

    McPhaden, M.J. ); Picaut, J. )

    1990-12-07

    The western equatorial Pacific warm pool (sea-surface temperatures >29C) was observed to migrate eastward across the date line during the 1986-1987 El Nino-Southern Oscillation event. Direct velocity measurements made in the upper ocean from 1986 to 1988 indicate that this migration was associated with a prolonged reversal in the South Equatorial Current forced by a large-scale relaxation of the trade winds. The data suggest that wind-forced zonal advection plays an important role in the thermodynamics of the western Pacific warm pool on interannual time scales.

  3. Tropical ocean-atmosphere interaction, the Pacific cold tongue, and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation

    SciTech Connect

    Jin, F.F.

    1996-10-04

    The tropical Pacific basin allows strong feedbacks among the trade winds, equatorial zonal sea surface temperature contrast, and upper ocean heat content. Coupled atmosphere-ocean dynamics produce both the strong Pacific cold tongue climate state and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon. A simple paradigm of the tropical climate system is presented, capturing the basic physics of these two important aspects of the tropic Pacific and basic features of the climate states of the Atlantic and Indian ocean basins. 21 refs., 3 figs.

  4. El Nino-southern oscillation simulated in an MRI atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model

    SciTech Connect

    Nagai, T.; Tokioka, T.; Endoh, M.; Kitamura, Y. )

    1992-11-01

    A coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (GCM) was time integrated for 30 years to study interannual variability in the tropics. The atmospheric component is a global GCM with 5 levels in the vertical and 4[degrees]latitude X 5[degrees] longitude grids in the horizontal including standard physical processes (e.g., interactive clouds). The oceanic component is a GCM for the Pacific with 19 levels in the vertical and 1[degrees]x 2.5[degrees] grids in the horizontal including seasonal varying solar radiation as forcing. The model succeeded in reproducing interannual variations that resemble the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with realistic seasonal variations in the atmospheric and oceanic fields. The model ENSO cycle has a time scale of approximately 5 years and the model El Nino (warm) events are locked roughly in phase to the seasonal cycle. The cold events, however, are less evident in comparison with the El Nino events. The time scale of the model ENSO cycle is determined by propagation time of signals from the central-eastern Pacific to the western Pacific and back to the eastern Pacific. Seasonal timing is also important in the ENSO time scale: wind anomalies in the central-eastern Pacific occur in summer and the atmosphere ocean coupling in the western Pacific operates efficiently in the first half of the year.

  5. Impacts of El Nino Southern Oscillation on the Global Yields of Major Crops

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Iizumi, Toshichika; Luo, Jing-Jia; Challinor, Andrew J.; Sakurai, Gen; Yokozawa, Masayuki; Sakuma, Hirofumi; Brown, Molly Elizabeth; Yamagata, Toshio

    2014-01-01

    The monitoring and prediction of climate-induced variations in crop yields, production and export prices in major food-producing regions have become important to enable national governments in import-dependent countries to ensure supplies of affordable food for consumers. Although the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) often affects seasonal temperature and precipitation, and thus crop yields in many regions, the overall impacts of ENSO on global yields are uncertain. Here we present a global map of the impacts of ENSO on the yields of major crops and quantify its impacts on their global-mean yield anomalies. Results show that El Nino likely improves the global-mean soybean yield by 2.15.4 but appears to change the yields of maize, rice and wheat by -4.3 to +0.8. The global-mean yields of all four crops during La Nina years tend to be below normal (-4.5 to 0.0).Our findings highlight the importance of ENSO to global crop production.

  6. The hydroclimatology of the United States during El Nino/Southern Oscillation

    SciTech Connect

    Dracup, J.A.; Piechota, T.C.; Khachikian, C.S.

    1995-12-31

    Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) monthly data are analyzed, building on a previous study that investigated the influence of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on US streamflow. Harmonic analysis is performed using data from 1,035 selected climatological stations, allowing observation of the biennial tendency in climate data. With the middle twelve months defined as the El Nino year (0), an idealized first harmonic fit to a 24-month ENSO composite is computed for each station. By plotting the first harmonic vectors of each station, regions of similar, or coherent, response are identified. The regions identified using PDSI data represent wet conditions in the Gulf of Mexico (Gm1 and GM2) and central (C) US, and dry conditions in the Pacific northwest (PNW) and northeast (NE) US. The PNW region exhibits the strongest interrelationship between ENSO and extreme drought events. Comparing PDSI data results with other hydroclimatic data (temperature, precipitation, and streamflow) reveals consistent responses. The most filtered response is seen in the PDSI and streamflow data, and these data are probably the best measure of the overall hydroclimatic response within a region. Results of this study suggest that conditions in the tropical Pacific (e.g., sea surface temperatures) may be excellent precursors of future climate. These conditions may also enhance long range prediction of droughts and floods for certain regions of the US.

  7. Excitation of the Earth's Chandler wobble by southern oscillation/El Nino, 1900-1979

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chao, B. F.

    1985-01-01

    The southern oscillation/El Nino (ENSO) is the single most prominent interannual signal in global atmospheric/oceanic fluctuations. The following question is addressed: how important is the angular momentum carried by ENSO in exciting the Earth's Chandler wobble? The question is attacked through a statistical analysis of the coherence spectra (correlation as a function of frequency) between two data sets spanning 1900 to 1979-the southern oscillation index (SOI) time series and the excitation function psi (with x-component psi sub x and y-component psi sub y) of the Chandler wobble derived from the homogeneous ILS (International Latitude Service) polar motion data. The coherence power and phase in the Chandler frequency band (approx. 0.79 to 0.89 cpy) are studied. It is found that, during 1900 to 1979 the coherence between SOI and psi sub x is significant well over the 95% confidence threshold whereas that between SOI and psi sub y is practically nil. Quantitatively, the coherence study shows that ENSO provides some 20% of the observed Chandler wobble excitation power. Since earlier investigations have shown that the total atmospheric/oceanic variation can account for the Chandler wobble excitation at about 20% level, the implication is that ENSO maybe an important (interannual) part of the atmospheric/oceanic variation that is responsible for the Chandler wobble excitation during 1900 to 1979.

  8. Use of Data to Improve El Nino Southern Oscillation Simulations and Forecasts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Perigaud, Claire

    1999-01-01

    Various data over the period 1980-1998 have been used to improve El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) simulations and forecasts performed by coupled ocean/atmosphere models. For such a study, oceanic and atmospheric satellite data are necessary. Models assume a baroclinic ocean with a mixed layer coupled to a baroclinic atmosphere to simulate the anomalous fields. The various data have been used to revisit the parameterizations of the subsurface temperature in the mixed layer, atmospheric convection, and friction in the baroclinic ocean. This new model, named Tsub.Conv, simulates 4-year oscillations like the model with the original parameterization, but with anomalous thermocline and wind anomalies that agree a lot better with reality. The atmospheric model still presents some deficiencies in the eastern Pacific and when it is replaced by a statistical atmosphere, the coupled model (Tsub.Astat) performs even better. It is found that the off-equatorial ocean and wind curl anomalies play a crucial role for all these models and that Tsub.Astat simulates an ocean heat content recharge coming from the north prior to a warm event like the ones observed during the 1985-1992 period. The ENSO forecasts over 1980-1998 are considerably improved with Tsub.Astat. One needs to add the simulation of westerly wind bursts to be able to forecast the 1997 event one year in advance. Additional information is contained in the original.

  9. El Nino-southern oscillation: A coupled response to the greenhouse effect?

    SciTech Connect

    Sun, De-Zheng

    1997-11-01

    The purpose of this article to elucidate the link between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and radiative forcing (of which the greenhouse effect is a major part). A unified theory for the tropical Pacific climate is developed by considering the response of the coupled ocean-atmosphere to a changing radiative forcing. The hypothesis is that both the zonal surface sea temperature (SST) gradients and ENSO are a coupled response to the strong radiative heating or the tropical warmth. Owing to ocean-atmosphere interaction, the stronger the radiative heating, the larger the zonal SST gradients. When the SST gradients exceed a critical value, however, the ocean-atmosphere interaction in the cold-tongue region is too strong for the coupled system to hold steady. Consequently, the coupled system enters an oscillatory state. These coupled dynamics are examined in a simple mathematical model whose behavior is consistent with the hypothesis. With a linear temperature profile throughout the depth of subsurface ocean, the model predicts that both the magnitude and period of the oscillation increase with increases in radiative forcing or the greenhouse effect. The increase in the magnitude of the oscillation largely comes from an enhancement of the magnitude of the cold anomalies, while the increase in the period mostly comes from a prolonged duration of the warm events. With a profile in which the lapse rate decreases with depth, the sensitivity is more moderate. The simplicity of the model prevents a quantitative simulation of the sensitivity of ENSO to increases in the greenhouse effect, but qualitatively the model results support the empirical interpretation of the prolonged duration of the 1990-1995 ENSO event. 5 refs., 7 figs.

  10. Simulated Impacts of El Nino/Southern Oscillation on United States Water Resources

    SciTech Connect

    Thomson, Allison M. ); Brown, Robert A. ); Rosenberg, Norman J. ); Izaurralde, R Cesar C. ); Legler, David; Srinivasan, Ragahvan

    2003-02-01

    The El Nino/Southern Oscillation alters global weather patterns with consequences for fresh water quality and supply. ENSO events impact regions and natural resource sectors around the globe. For example, in 1997-98, a strong El Ni?o brought warm ocean temperatures, flooding and record snowfall to the west coast of the US. Research on ENSO events and their impacts has improved long range weather predictions, potentially reducing the damage and economic cost of these anomalous weather patterns. Here, we simulate the impacts of four types of ENSO states on water resources in the conterminous United States. We distinguish between Neutral, El Ni?o, La Ni?a and strong El Ni?o years over the period of 1960-1989. Using climate statistics that characterize these ENSO states to drive the HUMUS water resources model, we examine the effects of 'pure' ENSO events, without complications from transition periods. Strong El Ni?o is not simply an amplification of El Ni?o; it leads to strikingly different consequences for climate and water resources.

  11. Influences of the El Nino Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on the Timing of the North American Spring

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    McCabe, Gregory J.; Ault, Toby R.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Schwartz, Mark D.

    2012-01-01

    Detrended, modelled first leaf dates for 856 sites across North America for the period 1900-2008 are used to examine how the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) separately and together might influence the timing of spring. Although spring (mean March through April) ENSO and PDO signals are apparent in first leaf dates, the signals are not statistically significant (at a 95% confidence level (p <0.05)) for most sites. The most significant ENSO/PDO signal in first leaf dates occurs for El Nino and positive PDO conditions. An analysis of the spatial distributions of first leaf dates for separate and combined ENSO/PDO conditions features a northwest-southeast dipole that is significantly (at p <0.05) different than the distributions for neutral conditions. The nature of the teleconnection between Pacific SST's and first leaf dates is evident in comparable composites for detrended sea level pressure (SLP) in the spring months. During positive ENSO/PDO, there is an anomalous flow of warm air from the southwestern US into the northwestern US and an anomalous northeasterly flow of cold air from polar regions into the eastern and southeastern US. These flow patterns are reversed during negative ENSO/PDO. Although the magnitudes of first leaf date departures are not necessarily significantly related to ENSO and PDO, the spatial patterns of departures are significantly related to ENSO and PDO. These significant relations and the long-lived persistence of SSTs provide a potential tool for forecasting the tendencies for first leaf dates to be early or late.

  12. Explosive volcanic eruptions, the El Nino-southern oscillation, and U.S. climate variability

    SciTech Connect

    Portman, D.A.

    1996-01-01

    A study was conducted to identify and separate possible signals of volcanic eruptions and of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in U.S. surface climate records. Anomalies of monthly mean surface air temperature and total precipitation taken from the U.S. Historical Climatology Network were composited (averaged) over years of major explosive volcanic eruptions, ENSO warm events, and ENSO cold events since the year 1900. It was assumed that volcanic eruptions and ENSO events occur independently of each other. All composite anomalies were assessed for significance with regard to several statistical and physical criteria. The composite ENSO-related anomalies were then subtracted from anomalies of temperature and precipitation associated with the volcanic eruptions. Removal of large magnitude and highly significant anomalies associated with the ENSO warm and cold events is found to facilitate detection of volcanic signals in monthly records of U.S. temperature and precipitation. Volcanic signals are strongly suggested east of the Continental Divide, for example, where positive monthly temperature anomalies exceeding 1{degrees}C occur during the first fall and winter after eruptions. Negative temperature anomalies occur west of the Continental Divide during the first winter and spring after eruptions and in the southern United States during the summer of the first post-eruption calendar year. Positive monthly precipitation anomalies exceeding 15 mm in magnitude are found in the southeastern United States during the first winter and spring after eruptions. Precipitation anomalies that are smaller in magnitude and yet significant, such as positive anomalies in the northwestern United States and negative anomalies in the central and eastern United States, are found during the summer of the first post-eruption calendar year. 62 refs., 9 figs., 4 tabs.

  13. El-Nino Southern Oscillation simulated and predicted in SNU coupled GCMs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ham, Yoo-Geun; Kang, In-Sik; Kim, Daehyun; Kug, Jong-Seong

    2012-06-01

    The characteristics of the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) simulated in free integrations using two versions of the Seoul National University (SNU) ocean-atmosphere coupled global climate model (CGCM) are examined. A revised version of the SNU CGCM is developed by incorporating a reduced air-sea coupling interval (from 1 day to 2 h), a parameterization for cumulus momentum transport, a minimum entrainment rate threshold for convective plumes, and a shortened auto-conversion time scale of cloud water to raindrops. With the revised physical processes, lower tropospheric zonal wind anomalies associated with the ENSO-related sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) are represented with more realism than those in the original version. From too weak, the standard deviation of SST over the eastern Pacific becomes too strong in the revised version due to the enhanced air-sea coupling strength and intraseasonal variability associated with ENSO. From the oceanic side, the stronger stratification and the shallower-than-observed thermocline over the eastern Pacific also contribute to the excessive ENSO. The impacts of the revised physical processes on the seasonal predictability are investigated in two sets of the hindcast experiment performed using the two versions of CGCMs. The prediction skill measured by anomaly correlation coefficients of monthly-mean SSTA shows that the new version has a higher skill over the tropical Pacific regions compared to the old version. The better atmospheric responses to the ENSO-related SSTA in the revised version lead to the basin-wide SSTA maintained and developed in a manner that is closer to observations. The symptom of an excessively strong ENSO of the new version in the free integration is not prominent in the hindcast experiment because the thermocline depth over the eastern Pacific is maintained as initialized over the arc of time of the hindcast (7 months).

  14. Elements of a stochastic-dynamical theory of the long-term variability of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, K.-M.

    1985-01-01

    The rudiments of a stochastic-dynamical model for climatic systems with multiple equilibrium states are presented as a means for analyzing the long-term variability of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. It is shown that a combination of the unstable air-sea interaction, the seasonal cycle, and stochastic intraseasonal forcings must be considered in any model for ENSO. In particular, the instability in the air-sea interaction may be triggered by stochastic forcing. The possibility that stochastic events initiate the conditions leading to ENSO exacerbates the already difficult task of predicting ENSO patterns.

  15. Shortwave feedbacks and El Nino-Southern Oscillation: Forced ocean coupled ocean-atmosphere experiments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Waliser, Duane E.; Blanke, Bruno; Neelin, J. David; Gautier, C.

    1994-01-01

    Changes in tropical sea surface temperature (SST) can produce changes in cloudiness that modify incoming solar shortwave (SW) radiation, which in turn affects SST. The effects of this negative feedback on Pacific interannual variability are examined in forced ocean model and hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model simulations. Two empirical schemes are used to model the large-scale, low-frequency response of surface SW to SST anomalies. The first scheme attempts to account for the nonlocal nature of the atmospheric response to SST based patterns of covariability analyzed through singular value decomposition. In the observations the primary coupled mode of variability is composed of a SW anomaly in the central Pacific that covaries with anomalous SST in the eastern Pacific. This is applied in the model as a nonlocal feedback. The second scheme examines the effects of a purely local feedback with a spatially varying coefficient of magnitude chosen similar to the first scheme. In almost all cases the second scheme behaved similarly to the first, presumably because the correlation scale of SST is large enough for El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics that there is little sensitivity to the local approximation in the SW feedback. In simulations forced by time series of observed wind stress the SW feedback induced very minor SST damping. Results for a simpified heat budget analysis showed that while the SW feedback increased the local heat flux damping on SST, it also induced a mean shallowing of the mixed layer. The resulting changes in both the local mean vertical temperature gradient and the zonal velocity response to the wind stress acted to oppose the local heat flux damping effects. When the observed SW anomalies were applied to forced simulations, the simulated SST anomalies were modified as expected, and agreement with observed SST improved. In coupled simulations the SW feedbacks had greater impact than in the case of specified stress. The main effects were

  16. El Nino-Southern Oscillation Correlated Aerosol Angstrom Exponent Anomaly Over the Tropical Pacific Discovered in Satellite Measurements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Li, Jing; Carlson, Barbara E.; Lacis, Andrew A.

    2011-01-01

    El Nino.Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual variability in the tropical atmosphere. ENSO could potentially impact local and global aerosol properties through atmospheric circulation anomalies and teleconnections. By analyzing aerosol properties, including aerosol optical depth (AOD) and Angstrom exponent (AE; often used as a qualitative indicator of aerosol particle size) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer, the Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer and the Sea ]viewing Wide Field ]of ]view Sensor for the period 2000.2011, we find a strong correlation between the AE data and the multivariate ENSO index (MEI) over the tropical Pacific. Over the western tropical Pacific (WTP), AE increases during El Nino events and decreases during La Nina events, while the opposite is true over the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP). The difference between AE anomalies in the WTP and ETP has a higher correlation coefficient (>0.7) with the MEI than the individual time series and could be considered another type of ENSO index. As no significant ENSO correlation is found in AOD over the same region, the change in AE (and hence aerosol size) is likely to be associated with aerosol composition changes due to anomalous meteorological conditions induced by the ENSO. Several physical parameters or mechanisms that might be responsible for the correlation are discussed. Preliminary analysis indicates surface wind anomaly might be the major contributor, as it reduces sea ]salt production and aerosol transport during El Nino events. Precipitation and cloud fraction are also found to be correlated with tropical Pacific AE. Possible mechanisms, including wet removal and cloud shielding effects, are considered. Variations in relative humidity, tropospheric ozone concentration, and ocean color during El Nino have been ruled out. Further investigation is needed to fully understand this AE ]ENSO covariability and the underlying physical processes responsible for

  17. Relating El Nino-Southern oscillation climate conditions to irrigation strategies for increased cotton yield

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The global-scale El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) of sea surface temperature that causes monsoonal rain in India also affects precipitation in North America.The ENSO phases and related rain expectations have been used to limit climate uncertainties when producing wheat for grazing and grain. Insi...

  18. Strategic adaptation of nitrogen management for el nino southern oscillation-induced winter wheat system

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The rainfall anomaly (RA) associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has various unwanted impacts on agricultural system globally. The loss of inorganic nitrogen (N) depending on extreme wet or dry conditions is a major concern. The main objective of this study was to adapt site-specific N ...

  19. Evolution of Oceanic Precipitation Anomalies During El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Events of the Last Two Decades

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yuan, Jinchun; Miller, Richard

    2001-01-01

    The Global Precipitation Climatology Program (GPCP) recently released monthly global precipitation data that allowed an analysis of oceanic precipitation anomalies before, during, and after El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events of the last two decades. During each ENSO event, a major positive precipitation anomaly was observed in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific, while a major negative precipitation anomaly was observed in the Western Equatorial Pacific and Eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean. These precipitation anomalies co-varied strongly with sea surface temperature of the eastern equatorial Pacific, and may therefore be a good indicator of ENSO events. The precipitation anomaly pattern of 1997-98 differs significantly from previous ENSO events and calls certain aspects of current theories on ENSO into question.

  20. Structure and predictability of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon in a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model

    SciTech Connect

    Latif, M.; Sterl, A.; Maier-Reimer, E.; Junge, M.M. )

    1993-04-01

    The space-time structure and predictability of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon was investigated. Two comprehensive datasets were analyzed by means of an advanced statistical method, one based on observational data and other on data derived from an extended-range integration performed with a coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation model. It is shown that a considerable portion of the ENSO related low-frequency climate variability in both datasets is associated with a cycle implies the possibility of climate predictions in the tropics up to lead times of about one year. This is shown by conducting an ensemble of predictions with our coupled general circulation model. For the first time a coupled model of this type was successfully applied to ENSO predictions. 34 refs., 6 figs.

  1. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation in the second Hadley Centre coupled model and its response to greenhouse warming

    SciTech Connect

    Collins, M.

    2000-04-01

    This paper describes El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) interannual variability simulated in the second Handley Centre coupled model under control and greenhouse warming scenarios. The model produces a very reasonable simulation of ENSO in the control experiment--reproducing the amplitude, spectral characteristics, and phase locking to the annual cycle that are observed in nature. The mechanism for the model ENSO is shown to be a mixed SST-ocean dynamics mode that can be interpreted in terms of the ocean recharge paradigm of Jin. In experiments with increased levels of greenhouse gases, no statistically significant changes in ENSO are seen until these levels approach four times preindustrial values. In these experiments, the model ENSO has an approximately 20% larger amplitude, a frequency that is approximately double that of the current ENSO (implying more frequent El Ninos and La Ninas), and phase locks to the annual cycle at a different time of year. It is shown that the increase in the vertical gradient of temperature in the thermocline region, associated with the model's response to increased greenhouse gases, is responsible for the increase in the amplitude of ENSO, while the increase in meridional temperature gradients on either side of the equator, again associated with the models response to increasing greenhouse gases, is responsible for the increased frequency of ENSO events.

  2. Central pacific seabirds and the el nino southern oscillation: 1982 to 1983 perspectives.

    PubMed

    Schreiber, R W; Schreiber, E A

    1984-08-17

    The breeding chronology and reproductive attempts of the seabird community on Christmas Island in the central Pacific Ocean (2 degrees N, 157 degrees W) were interrupted by the 1982-1983 El Niño Southern Oscillation. The resultant reproductive failure and disappearance of the entire seabird community of this equatorial atoll represents the most dramatic interruption on record of a seabird community located distant from coastal upwelling. Our data indicate the effect that the abiotic and biotic aspects of a global atmospheric-oceanic anomaly have on marine birds. The 1982-1983 El Niño Southern Oscillation provides an example of selective pressures and a natural experiment in the study of vertebrate population dynamics. PMID:17810291

  3. Stable isotope geochemistry of corals from Costa Rica as proxy indicator of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

    SciTech Connect

    Carriquiry, J.D.; Risk, M.J.; Schwarcz, H.P. )

    1994-01-01

    The authors analyzed the [delta][sup 18]O and [delta][sup 13]C time-series contained in coral skeletons collected from Isla de Cano, Costa Rica, that survived the 1982-1983 El Nino warming event. Coral [delta][sup 18]O give a record of thermal histories with a precision of [approximately]0.5[degrees]C. For this locality, the authors have determined that the average [Delta][delta][sub w] effect in the coral skeletons is equivalent to 33% of the skeletal [delta][sup 18]O range. Therefore, if [delta][sub w] effects are not compensated for, the annual skeletal-[delta][sup 18]O range displays a temperature range of 1[degrees]C lower than actual values. The isotopic record of Porites lobata skeletons shows simultaneous depletions in [sup 18]O and [sup 13]C at skeletal levels corresponding to 1983, coincident with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event. Therefore, the El Nino event is not only recorded as negative [delta][sup 18]O anomalies in the skeleton, suggesting the warming of ambient waters, but also in the [delta][sup 13]C signal as negative anomalies, indicating coral bleaching. Contrary to the predictions of the [open quotes][sup 13]C-insolation model[close quotes] that the annual carbon isotope variation should be attenuated with depth in proportion to the decrease in light-intensity variation with depth, the authors found a clear trend where [Delta][delta][minus][sup 13]C increases with depth. Coral bioenergetics, which depends on both coral physiology and ecology, may adequately explain the unexpected increase in [delta][sup 13]C range with depth, without contradicting the seasonal character of [delta][sup 13]C variability with the solar irradiance cycle. Although some authors have determined the presence of hiatuses in the skeletal record due to severe stress and growth cessation, in this study it has been found that skeletal growth was not seriously diminished during the El Nino year of 1983.

  4. Correlation of interannual length-of-day variation with El Nino/Southern Oscillation, 1972-1986

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chao, B. Fong

    1988-01-01

    Correlation between interannual length-of-day (LOD) changes and an index representation of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) for the period of 1972-1986 was examined in two ways: as the cross-correlation function in the time domain and as the complex coherence spectrum in the frequency domain. The ENSO representation was derived from barometric measurements from the Tahiti and Darwin, Australia, meteorological stations, as the difference of the sea-level pressure between the two locations. The cross correlation between this ENSO representation and LOD variation on the interannual time scale was found to have a maximum value of 0.68 and the LOD phase lag of 2 months, indicating that most of the interannual LOD variation is caused by ENSO, and that the transfer of ENSO's axial angular momentum to the solid earth lags behind the Tahiti-Darwin pressure variation by about 2 months. The corresponding coherence spectrum showed minimum correlation around biennial periods, indicating an influence of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation on LOD variations.

  5. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-pandemic influenza connection: coincident or causal?

    PubMed

    Shaman, Jeffrey; Lipsitch, Marc

    2013-02-26

    We find that the four most recent human influenza pandemics (1918, 1957, 1968, and 2009), all of which were first identified in boreal spring or summer, were preceded by La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific. Changes in the phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation have been shown to alter the migration, stopover time, fitness, and interspecies mixing of migratory birds, and consequently, likely affect their mixing with domestic animals. We hypothesize that La Niña conditions bring divergent influenza subtypes together in some parts of the world and favor the reassortment of influenza through simultaneous multiple infection of individual hosts and the generation of novel pandemic strains. We propose approaches to test this hypothesis using influenza population genetics, virus prevalence in various host species, and avian migration patterns. PMID:22308322

  6. El Nino-Southern Oscillation and vector-borne diseases in Anhui, China.

    PubMed

    Bi, Peng; Parton, Kevin A; Tong, Shilu

    2005-01-01

    This paper examines the relationship between monthly Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and monthly incidences of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) and malaria in Anhui Province, China, over the periods 1971-1992 and 1966-1987, respectively. On the basis of monthly data over a 22-year period, results indicated that there were positive and negative relationships, respectively, between the SOI and monthly incidences of malaria and HFRS. The results suggest that the SOI could be used as an index in the study of the association of climate variability with the transmission of such diseases, particularly over larger areas, such as at a provincial or even state level, where averaging rainfall or temperature data across regions is inappropriate. PMID:16011424

  7. The Asian-Australian monsoon and El Nino-Southern Oscillation in the NCAR Climate System Model

    SciTech Connect

    Meehl, G.A.; Arblaster, J.M.

    1998-06-01

    Features associated with the Asian-Australian monsoon system and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are described in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) global coupled Climate System Model (CSM). Simulation characteristics are compared with a version of the atmospheric component of the CSM, the NCAR CCM3, run with time-evolving SSTs from 1950 to 1994, and with observations. The CSM is shown to represent most major features of the monsoon system in terms of mean climatology, interannual variability, and connections to the tropical Pacific. This includes a representation of the Southern Oscillation links between strong Asian-Australian monsoons and associated negative SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The equatorial SST gradient across the Pacific in the CSM is shown to be similar to the observed with somewhat cooler mean SSTs across the entire Pacific by about 1--2 C. The seasonal cycle of SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific has the characteristic signature seen in the observations of relatively warmer SSTs propagating westward in the first half of the year followed by the reestablishment of the cold tongue with relatively colder SSTs propagating westward in the second half of the year. Like other global coupled models, the propagation is similar to the observed but with the establishment of the relatively warmer water in the first half of the year occurring about 1--2 months later than observed. The seasonal cycle of precipitation in the tropical eastern Pacific is also similar to other global coupled models in that there is a tendency for a stronger-than-observed double ITCZ year round, particularly in northern spring, but with a well-reproduced annual maximum of ITCZ strength north of the equator in the second half of the year.

  8. Tidal Variability during the Current Peak in the El-Nino Southern Oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, G.; Immel, T. J.; England, S.; Forbes, J. M.; Mannucci, A. J.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Russell, J. M., III

    2015-12-01

    In 2015, a pronounced positive phase in the El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is occurring, with the peak value exceeding any events that have ever occurred during the TIMED mission. ENSO modifies the global distribution of heating by water vapor and raincloud formation in the troposphere, and as such it changes the formation of atmospheric tides that drive prominent structures in the upper atmosphere and ionosphere. Here we present an analysis of the atmospheric tides using TIMED/SABER and ionospheric total electron content (TEC) GNNS GPS data throughout 2002-present. The non-migrating tides (DE3 and DE2), their relation to ENSO and their changes with the evolution of this ENSO event will be presented. We will show the impacts of ENSO seen in both the tidal signatures in atmospheric temperatures and the ionospheric response seen in TECs. A comparison to previous ENSO events that have occurred over the past decade will be presented, to provide context for the observed impact of the current El-Niño peak in 2015.

  9. Zonal and Meridional Mass Redistribution in the Tropical Pacific During El Nino Southern Oscillation Events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Delcroix, Thierry; Gourdeau, Lionel; Rual, Pierre; Murtugudde, Raghuram

    1997-01-01

    This note aims at documenting the ENSO-related sea level changes for the whole tropical Pacific, and for the 1979-1996 period which covers numerous El Nino and La Nina events. For this purpose, we rely on (a) 0/450 dbar surface dynamic height anomaly (an alias for sea level) derived from XBT and TOGA-TAO measurements during 1979-1996, (b) TOPEX/Poseidon derived sea level anomaly during 1993-1996, and (c) Murtugudde et al. [1996] model sea level output during 1979-1995.

  10. Coupled atmosphere-ocean model simulations of El Nino/Southern Oscillation with and without an active Indian Ocean

    SciTech Connect

    Nagai, T.; Kitamura, Y.; Endoh, M.; Tokioka, T.

    1995-01-01

    An atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) was coupled with an ocean GCM covering the Pacific. This coupled model (PAC) was integrated over a 30-year period. The PAC model stimulates well the mean seasonally varying atmospheric and ocean fields and reproduces interannual variations corresponding to ENSO (El Nino/Southern Oscillation). The same atmospheric GCM was coupled with an ocean GCM covering the Indian Ocean and the tropical Pacific. This coupled model (IPC) was integrated over a 35-year period. The model climate in IPC is fairly reasonable, and its Pacific part is very similar to the Pacific climate of the PAC model. ENSO is the major interannual variability in the IPC model. The dynamics of ENSO in IPC are essentially the same as that in PAC. In the Pacific, the subsurface ocean heat content anomalies are formed by wind anomalies and show westward propagation centered off the equator. After they reach the western Pacific, they show eastward propagation along the equator. They produce changes in the thermocline structure in the eastern equatorial Pacific resulting in anomalies in SSTs. The SST anomalies provide wind anomalies, the sign of which is opposite to that of the wind anomalies in the first stage, so that this chain will continue. ENSO in the PAC and IPC models can be regarded as the {open_quotes}delayed oscillator{close_quotes} operating in the Pacific. Although the major interannual variability in the Indian Ocean is linked to ENSO in the Pacific, the Indian Ocean does not play any active role in the ENSO cycle in the IPC model. Interannual variability of monsoon activity in the IPC model is more reasonable than that in the PAC model. However, any definite mechanism for the relationship between monsoon activity and ENSO does not emerge in the present study. 31 refs., 14 figs.

  11. Modeling cotton lint yield response to irrigation management as influenced by El Nino-Southern Oscillation

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The declining Ogallala Aquifer in the U.S. Southern High Plains motivates producers to optimize water use and yield of crops that can tolerate short-term water stress like cotton [Gossypium hirsutum (L.)]. Measurable and systematic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) drive the El Niño-Southern ...

  12. Utilizing TRMM to Analyze Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Patterns During El Nino Southern Oscillations and Their Effects upon Available Fresh Water for South Florida Agricultural Planning and Management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cooley, Clayton; Billiot, Amanda; Lee, Lucas; McKee, Jake

    2010-01-01

    Water is in high demand for farmers regardless of where you go. Unfortunately, farmers in southern Florida have fewer options for water supplies than public users and are often limited to using available supplies from surface and ground water sources which depend in part upon variable weather patterns. There is an interest by the agricultural community about the effect weather has on usable surface water, however, research into viable weather patterns during La Nina and El Nino has yet to be researched. Using rainfall accumulation data from NASA Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite, this project s purpose was to assess the influence of El Nino and La Nina Oscillations on sea breeze thunderstorm patterns, as well as general rainfall patterns during the summer season in South Florida. Through this research we were able to illustrate the spatial and temporal variations in rainfall accumulation for each oscillation in relation to major agricultural areas. The study period for this project is from 1998, when TRMM was first launched, to 2009. Since sea breezes in Florida typically occur in the months of May through October, these months were chosen to be the months of the study. During this time, there were five periods of El Nino and two periods of La Nina, with a neutral period separating each oscillation. In order to eliminate rainfall from systems other than sea breeze thunderstorms, only days that were conducive to the development of a sea breeze front were selected.

  13. El Nino southern oscillation effects on dryland crop production in the Texas High Plains

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Risk adverse dryland crop management in the US Southern High Plains may stabilize year to year productivity, however in some years the full yield potential is unrealized thereby reducing the overall cropping system productivity. Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) systematica...

  14. Combined Effect of El Nino Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on Lake Chad Level Variability Region

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Okonkwo, Churchill; Demoz, Belay; Sakai, Ricardo; Ichoku, Charles; Anarado, Chigozie; Adegoke, Jimmy; Amadou, Angelina; Abdullahi, Sanusu Imran

    2015-01-01

    In this study, the combined effect of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Lake Chad (LC) level variability is explored. Our results show that the lake level at the Bol monitoring station has a statistically significant correlation with precipitation (R2 = 0.6, at the 99.5% confidence level). The period between the late 1960s and early 1970s marked a turning point in the response of the regional rainfall to climatic drivers, thereby severely affecting the LC level. Our results also suggest that the negative impact of the cold phase of AMO on Sahel precipitation masks and supersedes the positive effect of La Niña in the early the 1970s. The drop in the size of LC level from 282.5 m in the early 1960s to about 278.1 m in 1983/1984 was the largest to occur within the period of study (1900-2010) and coincides with the combined cold phase of AMO and strong El Niño phase of ENSO. Further analyses show that the current warm phase of AMO and increasing La Niña episodes appear to be playing a major role in the increased precipitation in the Sahel region. The LC level is responding to this increase in precipitation by a gradual recovery, though it is still below the levels of the 1960s. This understanding of the AMO-ENSO-rainfall-LC level association will help in forecasting the impacts of similar combined episodes in the future. These findings also have implications for long-term water resources management in the LC region.

  15. Testing late 20th century El Nino-Southern Oscillation variability against new coral-based estimates of natural variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cobb, K. M.; Westphal, N.; Sayani, H. R.; Di Lorenzo, E.; Cheng, H.; Edwards, R.; Charles, C. D.

    2012-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives large changes in global climate patterns from year to year, yet its sensitivity to continued anthropogenic greenhouse forcing is poorly constrained by both climate models and observational data. Here we analyze over 670 years worth of new, monthly-resolved fossil coral records of ENSO spanning the last 7,000 years. The new records are based on the oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O) of U/Th-dated fossil corals from Christmas (2°N, 157°W) and Fanning (4°N, 160°W) Islands, located in the heart of the ENSO region. The corals document a highly variable ENSO, with reductions in ENSO variance of up to 60% documented in the last millennium and at several points through the reconstruction. Maximum ENSO variance is observed in the early 17th century, when values were up to 15% larger than present. There is no evidence for a precessionally-driven trend in ENSO variance from 6,000 years ago to present that some paleodata and coupled global climate models document. If there is an insolation-related signal in ENSO variance, our data suggest that it is overwhelmed by the large range of natural variability in ENSO. The average ENSO variance for the fossil coral database is 40% lower than late 20th century ENSO variance estimates derived from the fossil corals' modern counterparts. In order to test whether late 20th century ENSO variance is significantly larger than the long-term average implied by the fossil coral data, we employ a Monte Carlo-based approach that uses output from a 2,000-yr-long unforced simulation of the GFDL CM2.1 coupled GCM (Wittenberg, 2009). We first confirm that the model-based distribution of ENSO variance is consistent with the fossil coral-based distribution, which suggests that at least some of the current class of coupled climate models are capable of simulating the intrinsic variability in ENSO reasonably well. We then generate 10,000 pairs of modern and fossil 'pseudocoral' databases, drawing

  16. Isotope evidence of paleo - El Nino - Southern Oscillation cycles in loess-paleosol record in the central United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wang, Hongfang; Follmer, L.R.; Chao-li, Liu, J.

    2000-01-01

    The ??13C of soil carbonate in rhizoconcretions collected from a loess-paleosol sequence in the central United States indicates that growing-season C3/C4 plant ratio oscillated by 35% on a 900 ?? 200 yr time scale during the late Wisconsinan glaciation. The pattern appears in phase with advance and retreat of the southern margin of the Laurentide ice sheet, suggesting influence by paleo-El Nin??o-Southern Oscillation cycles. The ??13C of soil organic matter indicates that the annual average C3/C4 plant ratio oscillated only by 18%, with a periodicity of 450 ?? 100 yr, and closely matched the cyclic pattern of loess-paleosol layers. It suggests a periodic enhancement of the penetration of the Gulf of Mexico air over the region during this time.

  17. Interannual variations in wheat rust development in China and the United States in relation to the El Nino/Southern oscillation

    SciTech Connect

    Scherm, H.; Yang, X.B.

    1995-09-01

    The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most important and best-characterized mechanisms of global climatic variation. Because regional temperature and precipitation patterns are influenced by the ENSO and plant diseases are responsive to these factors, historical disease records may contain an ENSO-related signal. We used cross-spectral analysis to establish coherence and phase relationships between the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which is a measure of the ENSO, and long-term (>40 years) data on wheat stripe rust in five regions of northern China and wheat stem rust in four climatic divisions of the midwestern United States. Monthly SOI values were averaged from March to June and October to March for analysis of the rust data from China and the United States, respectively, based when weather patterns in these regions are influenced by the ENSO. The coherence relationships showed consistent and significant (0.01 {le} P {le} 0.10) cooscillations between the rust and SOI series at temporal scales characteristic of the ENSO. The five stripe rust series were coherent with the SOI series at periodicities of 2.0 to 3.0 and 8.0 to 10.0 years, and three of the four stem rust series were coherent with the SOI series at a periodicity of 6.8 to 8.2 years. The phase relationships showed that, in most cases, the rust and SOI series cooscillated out of phase, suggesting that the associations between them are indirect. In a separate analysis of a shorter (18 years) stripe rust series form the Pacific Northwest of the United States, disease severity was significantly lower during El Nino years (warm phases of the ENSO) than during non-El Nino years (P {le} 0.0222) or during La Nina years (cold phases of the ENSO) (P {le}0.0253). Although no cause-and-effect relationships could be deduced, this analysis identified methods and directions for future research into relationships between climate and disease at extended temporal scales. 34 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab.

  18. Simulation of El Nino-Southern Oscillation - like variability in a global AOGCM and its response to CO{sub 2} increase

    SciTech Connect

    Tett, S.

    1995-06-01

    A 75-year integration of a coupled atmosphere-ocean model is examined for tropical interannual variability. The atmospheric model has interactive cloud and a seasonal cycle. The fluxes of heat and salinity into the ocean component of the model are flux corrected. The model has tropical variability that is qualitatively similar to that of the observed El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The maximum amplitude of the model Nino3 signal is approximately half that observed and the modeled ENSO timescale is greater than that observed. In the first 50 years of the integration the model has eight warm events. Each event is one of two types: one characterized by a standing SST anomaly in the central and eastern Pacific and the other by a westward propagating sea surface temperature anomaly. The majority of the model warm events are of the first type. The first type of event is triggered by the eastward propagation of Kelvin waves across the Pacific, and the second by westward propagation of warm temperature anomalies through the atmospheric response to a warm anomaly causing the suppression of equatorial upwelling. There is a coupling to the seasonal cycle for the first type of event. A positive feedback through changes in marine stratocumulus in the east Pacific is an important factor in some simulated warm events. Another integration was carried out in which atmospheric CO{sub 2} was increased at a rate of 1% (compounded) per annum. There is no significant change in the one to ten year interannual variance of SST in the east Pacific, and this suggests that the size of the SST anomalies during warm or cold events in the {open_quotes}greenhouse{close_quotes} world may not be significantly different from those of today. 63 refs., 23 figs.

  19. Prediction and assessment of impacts on Asian river deltas by extreme climate events and their association with El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

    SciTech Connect

    Chang, W.Y.B. |

    1995-12-31

    Impacts of hydrological consequences of extreme climate events such as major floods and droughts on human systems have long been among the foremost concerns of the Pacific Rim countries. Proxy climate data for the last 500 years collected form the archives of counties in the Yangtze River Delta, China, were analyzed to understand the occurrence of extreme climate events, the pattern of such occurrences and their relationships to global climate changes. There have been 16 regional (delta wide) extreme climate events during the last 500 years (since 1,500 A.D.); all occurred in conjunction with reported El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activities. Large interannual variability in precipitation is found to occur during or immediately following the ENSO events in the Delta. Management of systems increasingly dominated by humans, such as Asian delta regions, should include consideration of major climate variability, cycle periods and the extent of climate changes, as well as the trends associated with human growth and institutional changes.

  20. Meteorological factors and El Nino Southern Oscillation are associated with paediatric varicella infections in Hong Kong, 2004-2010.

    PubMed

    Chan, J Y C; Lin, H L; Tian, L W

    2014-07-01

    Varicella accounts for substantial morbidities and remains a public health issue worldwide, especially in children. Little is known about the effect of meteorological variables on varicella infection risk for children. This study described the epidemiology of paediatric varicella notifications in Hong Kong from 2004 to 2010, and explored the association between paediatric varicella notifications in children aged <18 years and various meteorological factors using a time-stratified case-crossover model, with adjustment of potential confounding factors. The analysis found that daily mean temperature, atmospheric pressure and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) were positively associated with paediatric varicella notifications. We found that an interquartile range (IQR) increase in temperature (8·38°C) at lag 1 day, a 9·50 hPa increase in atmospheric pressure for the current day, and a 21·91 unit increase in SOI for the current day may lead to an increase in daily cases of 5·19% [95% confidence interval (CI) 1·90-8·58], 5·77% (95% CI 3·01-8·61), and 4·32% (95% CI 2·98-5·68), respectively. An IQR increase in daily relative humidity (by 11·96%) was associated with a decrease in daily paediatric varicella (-2·79%, 95% CI -3·84 to -1·73). These findings suggest that meteorological factors might be important predictors of paediatric varicella infection in Hong Kong. PMID:24074377

  1. Tales of volcanoes and El-Nino southern oscillations with the oxygen isotope anomaly of sulfate aerosol.

    PubMed

    Shaheen, Robina; Abauanza, Mariana; Jackson, Teresa L; McCabe, Justin; Savarino, Joel; Thiemens, Mark H

    2013-10-29

    The ability of sulfate aerosols to reflect solar radiation and simultaneously act as cloud condensation nuclei renders them central players in the global climate system. The oxidation of S(IV) compounds and their transport as stable S(VI) in the Earth's system are intricately linked to planetary scale processes, and precise characterization of the overall process requires a detailed understanding of the linkage between climate dynamics and the chemistry leading to the product sulfate. This paper reports a high-resolution, 22-y (1980-2002) record of the oxygen-triple isotopic composition of sulfate (SO4) aerosols retrieved from a snow pit at the South Pole. Observed variation in the O-isotopic anomaly of SO4 aerosol is linked to the ozone variation in the tropical upper troposphere/lower stratosphere via the Ozone El-Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO) Index (OEI). Higher (17)O values (3.3‰, 4.5‰, and 4.2‰) were observed during the three largest ENSO events of the past 2 decades. Volcanic events inject significant quantities of SO4 aerosol into the stratosphere, which are known to affect ENSO strength by modulating stratospheric ozone levels (OEI = 6 and (17)O = 3.3‰, OEI = 11 and (17)O = 4.5‰) and normal oxidative pathways. Our high-resolution data indicated that (17)O of sulfate aerosols can record extreme phases of naturally occurring climate cycles, such as ENSOs, which couple variations in the ozone levels in the atmosphere and the hydrosphere via temperature driven changes in relative humidity levels. A longer term, higher resolution oxygen-triple isotope analysis of sulfate aerosols from ice cores, encompassing more ENSO periods, is required to reconstruct paleo-ENSO events and paleotropical ozone variations. PMID:23447567

  2. Oxygen isotopes in tree rings are a good proxy for Amazon precipitation and El Nino-Southern Oscillation variability.

    PubMed

    Brienen, Roel J W; Helle, Gerd; Pons, Thijs L; Guyot, Jean-Loup; Gloor, Manuel

    2012-10-16

    We present a unique proxy for the reconstruction of variation in precipitation over the Amazon: oxygen isotope ratios in annual rings in tropical cedar (Cedrela odorata). A century-long record from northern Bolivia shows that tree rings preserve the signal of oxygen isotopes in precipitation during the wet season, with weaker influences of temperature and vapor pressure. Tree ring δ(18)O correlates strongly with δ(18)O in precipitation from distant stations in the center and west of the basin, and with Andean ice core δ(18)O showing that the signal is coherent over large areas. The signal correlates most strongly with basin-wide precipitation and Amazon river discharge. We attribute the strength of this (negative) correlation mainly to the cumulative rainout processes of oxygen isotopes (Rayleigh distillation) in air parcels during westward transport across the basin. We further find a clear signature of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the record, with strong ENSO influences over recent decades, but weaker influence from 1925 to 1975 indicating decadal scale variation in the controls on the hydrological cycle. The record exhibits a significant increase in δ(18)O over the 20th century consistent with increases in Andean δ(18)O ice core and lake records, which we tentatively attribute to increased water vapor transport into the basin. Taking these data together, our record reveals a fresh path to diagnose and improve our understanding of variation and trends of the hydrological cycle of the world's largest river catchment. PMID:23027960

  3. Delineating the effect of El-Nino Southern Oscillations using oxygen and sulfur isotope anomalies of sulfate aerosols

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shaheen, R.; Abaunza Quintero, M. M.; Jackson, T.; McCabe, J.; Savarino, J. P.; Thiemens, M. H.

    2013-12-01

    sulfate aerosol to the stratosphere. The new results demonstrate that combined O-triple isotopes and S-quadruple isotopes may help to recognize paleo ENSO events and their impact on the oxidation history of sulfate aerosols. 1. R. Shaheen, M. A., T. Jackson, J. McCabe, J. Savarino, M. H. Thiemens. (2013) A Window to the Paleoclimate- Tales of Volcanoes and El-Ninño Southern Oscillations with the Oxygen Isotope Anomaly of Sulfate Aerosols, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 2. Farquhar, J., Savarino, J., Airieau, S., and Thiemens, M. H. (2001) Observation of wavelength-sensitive mass-independent sulfur isotope effects during SO2 photolysis: Implications for the early atmosphere, Journal of Geophysical Research-Planets 106, 32829-32839.

  4. Southern Peru desert shattered by the great 2001 earthquake: Implications for paleoseismic and paleo-El Nino-Southern Oscillation records

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Keefer, David K.; Moseley, Michael E.

    2004-01-01

    In the desert region around the coastal city of Ilo, the great southern Peru earthquake of June 23, 2001 (8.2-8.4 moment magnitude), produced intense and widespread ground-failure effects. These effects included abundant landslides, pervasive ground cracking, microfracturing of surficial hillslope materials, collapse of drainage banks over long stretches, widening of hillside rills, and lengthening of first-order tributary channels. We have coined the term "shattered landscape" to describe the severity of these effects. Long-term consequences of this landscape shattering are inferred to include increased runoff and sediment transport during postearthquake rainstorms. This inference was confirmed during the first minor postearthquake rainstorm there, which occurred in June and July of 2002. Greater amounts of rainfall in this desert region have historically been associated with El Nin??o events. Previous studies of an unusual paleoflood deposit in this region have concluded that it is the product of El Nin??o-generated precipitation falling on seismically disturbed landscapes. The effects of the 2001 earthquake and 2002 rainstorm support that conclusion.

  5. Effect of the El Nino/southern oscillation on Gulf of Mexico, winter, frontal-wave cyclones: 1960-1989. (Volumes I and II)

    SciTech Connect

    Manty, R.E.

    1993-01-01

    Seasonal counts of frontal-wave cyclones forming over the Gulf of Mexico and its coastal plain show more storms in the five El Nino winters and fewer storms in the eight La Nina winters, from 1960 to 1989, significant at the .01 level by a rank sum test. This is corroborated by two results. First, during the same period, the frequency of frontal-overrunning weather conditions in the region, indicative of storms, was higher in El Nino winters and lower in La Nina winters. Second, 100 years of precipitation and temperature records show wetter, cooler El Nino winters and drier, warmer La Nina winters at gulf-region land stations and climatic divisions. A threefold explanation, based on National Meteorological Center, upper-air data, is offered for the greater frequency of gulf-region cyclogenesis during El Nino winters between 1960 and 1989. (1) The winter, mean, 250-mb jet over the southern US is intensified by 5 to 10 ms[sup [minus]1] and displaced southward between 110[degrees] and 75[degrees]W by an average of 200 to 285 km during the five El Nino winters. This implies stronger and more frequent episodes of jet-associated, upper-level troughing and divergence over the region, reinforcing surface, frontal-wave cyclones. (2) In the five El Nino winters between 1963 and 1989, seasonal average heights and temperatures of the 850-, 700-, 500-, and 200-mb surfaces are lower over the region than they are in non-El Nino winters. This implies more-common presence of cold, low-pressure troughs at upper levels, reinforcing surface cyclones. (3) A 10[degrees] eastward shift, at sea level, of the western edge of the Bermuda high during the eight El Nino winters, changes normally due-easterly trades in the northwestern Caribbean Sea to slightly south of east, allowing greater advection of moisture and heat into the gulf from the tropics, preconditioning the area for development of surface cyclones. Only winter season shows all three conditions and an increase in cyclogenesis.

  6. Drought stress signals in modern and subfossil Quercus laurifolia (Fagaceae) leaves reflect winter precipitation in southern Florida tied to El Nino-Southern Oscillation activity.

    PubMed

    Wagner-Cremer, Friederike; Donders, Timme H; Visscher, Henk

    2010-05-01

    In the present study, structural xeromorphic features in modern and subfossil Quercus laurifolia leaves from southern Florida were quantified to reconstruct past precipitation changes in sensitive terrestrial settings. Absolute cell numbers/mm(2), quantified as epidermal cell density (ED) have been analyzed on leaves from herbarium collections as well as the leaves accumulated during the past 125 years in peat deposits. The results reveal a common principal correlation between the measured ED and winter precipitation (November through March, NDJFM: Herbarium r = -0.74; peat profiles FAK98 r = -0.72, FAK02 r = -0.53) providing a measure of seasonal drought stress. In Florida, the amount of winter precipitation depends on El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity, where El Niño years produce wet and cold winters, while La Niña winters are dry and warm. The negative correlation between cell numbers and winter precipitation has the potential to record precipitation variability from subfossil leaves on near-annual to decadal time scales. In subtropical, terrestrial environments, where traditional paleo-proxies are limited, systematic analysis of leaf morphological characteristics can provide important information on precipitation changes through time. PMID:21622441

  7. Florida Agriculture - Utilizing TRMM to Analyze Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Patterns During El Nino Southern Oscillations and Their Effects Upon Available Fresh Water for South Florida Agricultural Planning and Management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Billiot, Amanda; Lee, Lucas; McKee, Jake; Cooley, Zachary Clayton; Mitchell, Brandie

    2010-01-01

    This project utilizes Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Landsat satellite data to assess the impact of sea breeze precipitation upon areas of agricultural land use in southern Florida. Water is a critical resource to agriculture, and the availability of water for agricultural use in Florida continues to remain a key issue. Recent projections of statewide water use by 2020 estimate that 9.3 billion gallons of water per day will be demanded, and agriculture represents 47% of this demand (Bronson 2003). Farmers have fewer options for water supplies than public users and are often limited to using available supplies from surface and ground water sources which depend in part upon variable weather patterns. Sea breeze thunderstorms are responsible for much of the rainfall delivered to Florida during the wet season (May-October) and have been recognized as an important overall contributor of rainfall in southern Florida (Almeida 2003). TRMM satellite data was used to analyze how sea breeze-induced thunderstorms during El Nino and La Nina affected interannual patterns of precipitation in southern Florida from 1998-2009. TRMM's Precipitation Radar and Microwave Imager provide data to quantify water vapor in the atmosphere, precipitation rates and intensity, and the distribution of precipitation. Rainfall accumulation data derived from TRMM and other microwave sensors were used to analyze the temporal and spatial variations of rainfall during each phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Through the use of TRMM and Landsat, slight variations were observed, but it was determined that neither sea breeze nor total rainfall patterns in South Florida were strongly affected by ENSO during the study period. However, more research is needed to characterize the influence of ENSO on summer weather patterns in South Florida. This research will provide the basis for continued observations and study with the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission.

  8. Roles of Various El Nino Events in Southern China Rainfall and Typhoon Landfall Activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, C.; Wang, X.

    2012-12-01

    El Nino events have been separated into canonical El Nino and El Nino Modoki because of different locations of maximum sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and climate impacts. Based on the opposite influence on rainfall in southern China during boreal fall, this paper classifies El Nino Modoki into two groups: El Nino Modoki I and II which show different origins and patterns of SST anomalies. The warm SST anomalies originate in the equatorial central Pacific and subtropical northeastern Pacific for El Nino Modoki I and II, respectively. Thus, El Nino Modoki I shows a symmetric SST anomaly distribution about the equator with the maximum warming in the equatorial central Pacific, whereas El Nino Modoki II displays an asymmetric distribution with the warm SST anomalies extending from the northeastern Pacific to equatorial central Pacific. Additionally, the warm SST anomalies in the equatorial central Pacific extend further westward for El Nino Modoki II than El Nino Modoki I. Similar to canonical El Niño, El Nino Modoki I is associated with an anomalous anticyclone in the Philippine Sea which induces southwesterly wind anomalies along the south coast of China and carries the moisture for increasing rainfall in southern China. For El Nino Modoki II, an anomalous cyclone resides east of the Philippines, associated with northerly wind anomalies and a decrease in rainfall in southern China. Canonical El Nino and El Nino Modoki I are associated with a westward extension of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH), whereas El Nino Modoki II shifts the WNPSH eastward. Differing from canonical El Nino and El Nino Modoki I, El Nino Modoki II corresponds to northwesterly anomalies of the typhoon steering flow which are unfavorable for typhoons to make landfall in China.

  9. Adaptive filtering and prediction of the Southern Oscillation index

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Keppenne, Christian L.; Ghil, Michael

    1992-01-01

    Singular spectrum analysis (SSA), a variant of principal component analysis, is applied to a time series of the Southern Oscillation index (SOI). The analysis filters out variability unrelated to the Southern Oscillation and separates the high-frequency, 2- to 3-year variability, including the quasi-biennial oscillation, from the lower-frequency 4- to 6-year El Nino cycle. The maximum entropy method (MEM) is applied to forecasting the prefiltered SOI. Prediction based on MEM-associated autoregresive models has useful skill for 30-36 months. A 1993-1994 La Nina event is predicted based on data through February 1992.

  10. Adaptive filtering and prediction of the Southern Oscillation index

    SciTech Connect

    Keppenne, C.L. California Inst. of Technology, Pasadena ); Ghil, M. )

    1992-12-20

    Singular spectrum analysis (SSA), a variant of principal component analysis, is applied to a time series of the Southern Oscillation index (SOI). The analysis filters out variability unrelated to the Southern Oscillation and separates the high-frequency, 2- to 3-year variability, including the quasi-biennial oscillation, from the lower-frequency 4- to 6-year El Nino cycle. The maximum entropy method (MEM) is applied to forecasting the prefiltered SOI. Prediction based on MEM-associated autoregressive models has useful skill for 30-36 months. A 1993-1994 La Nina event is predicted based on data through February 1992. 52 refs., 4 figs.

  11. Canadian precipitation patterns associated with the southern oscillation

    SciTech Connect

    Shabbar, A.; Bonsal, B.; Khandekar, M.

    1997-12-01

    Precipitation responses over Canada associated with the two extreme phases of the Southern Oscillation (SO), namely El Nino and La Nina are identified. Using the best available precipitation data from 1911 to 1994, both the spatial and temporal behavior of the responses are analyzed from the El Nino/La Nino onset to several seasons afterward. Composite and correlation analyses indicate that precipitation over a large region of southern Canada extending from British Columbia, through the prairies, and into the Great Lakes region is significantly influenced by the SO phenomenon. The results show a distinct pattern of negative (positive) precipitation anomalies in this region during the first winter following the onset of El Nino (La Nina) events. During this same period, significant positive precipitation anomalies occur over the northern prairies and southeastern Northwest Territories in association with El Nino events. Statistical significance of the responses is tested by the Student`s t-test and the Wilcoxon rank-sum test, while field significance is established through the Monte Carlo procedure. All of the significant precipitation anomalies can be explained by the associated upper-atmospheric flow patterns, which during the first winter following the onset of El Nino events resemble the positive (negative) phase of the Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern. Significant correlations between Southern Oscillation index (SOI) values and the observed precipitation anomalies over southern Canada suggest the possibility of developing a long-range forecasting technique for Canadian precipitation based on the occurrence and evolution of the various phases of the SO. 31 refs., 10 figs., 3 tabs.

  12. Global Weather's Problem Child--El Nino.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rasmusson, Eugene M.

    1984-01-01

    Discusses the nature and effects of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon. Indicates that new understanding of the phenomenon from current data will provide a global view of climate that has never before been within reach. (JN)

  13. A review of the Southern Oscillation - Oceanic-atmospheric circulation changes and related rainfall anomalies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kousky, V. E.; Kagano, M. T.; Cavalcanti, I. F. A.

    1984-01-01

    The region of South America is emphasized in the present consideration of the Southern Oscillation (SO) oceanic and atmospheric circulation changes. The persistence of climate anomalies associated with El Nino-SO events is due to strong atmosphere-ocean coupling. Once initiated, the SO follows a certain sequence of events with clearly defined effects on tropical and subtropical rainfall. Excessive rainfall related to the SO in the central and eastern Pacific, Peru, Ecuador, and southern Brazil, are complemented by drought in Australia, Indonesia, India, West Africa, and northeast Brazil. El Nino-SO events are also associated with dramatic changes in the tropospheric flow pattern over a broad area of both hemispheres.

  14. El Nino During the 1990's: Harbinger of Climatic Change or Normal Fluctuation?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2000-01-01

    Today, El Nino refers to the extreme warming episodes of the globally effective, coupled ocean-atmospheric interaction commonly known as ENSO (i.e., "El Nino-Southern Oscillation"). Concerning its observed decadal frequency and severity, El Nino during the 1990's has often been regarded as being anomalous. Results of analysis reported herein; however, appear to mitigate this belief.

  15. El Nino During the 1990s: Harbinger of Climatic Change or Normal Fluctuation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2000-01-01

    Today, El Nino refers to the extreme warming episodes of the globally effective, coupled ocean-atmospheric interaction commonly known as ENSO (i.e., "El Nino-Southern Oscillation"). Concerning its observed decadal frequency and severity, El Nino during the 1990's has often been regarded as being anomalous. Results of analysis reported herein; however, appear to mitigate this belief.

  16. Recent variability in the Southern Oscillation: Isotopic results from a Tarawa Atoll coral

    SciTech Connect

    Cole, J.E.; Fairbanks, R.G. ); Shen, G.T. )

    1993-06-18

    In the western tropical Pacific, the interannual migration of the Indonesian Low convective system causes changes in rainfall that dominate the regional signature of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system. A 96-year oxygen isotope record from a Tarawa Atoll coral (1[degrees]N, 172[degrees]E) reflects regional convective activity through rainfall-induced salinity changes. This monthly resolution record spans twice the length of the local climatological record and provides a history of ENSO variability comparable in quality with those derived from instrumental climate data. Comparison of this coral record with a historical chronology of El Nino events indicates that climate anomalies in coastal South America are occasionally decoupled from Pacific-wide ENSO extremes. Spectral analysis suggests that the distribution of variance in this record has shifted among annual to interannual periods during the present century, concurrent with observed changes in the strength of the Southern Oscillation. 28 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab.

  17. Mixed-Mode Oscillations of El Niño–Southern Oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roberts, Andrew; Guckenheimer, John; Widiasih, Esther; Timmermann, Axel; Jones, Christopher K. R. T.

    2016-04-01

    Very strong El Ni\\~no events occur sporadically every 10-20 years. The origin of this bursting behavior still remains elusive. Using a simplified 3-dimensional dynamical model of the tropical Pacific climate system, which captures the El Ni\\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) combined with recently developed mathematical tools for fast-slow systems we show that decadal ENSO bursting behavior can be explained as a Mixed Mode Oscillation (MMO), which also predicts a critical threshold for rapid amplitude growth. It is hypothesized that the MMO dynamics of the low-dimensional climate model can be linked to a saddle-focus equilibrium point, which mimics a tropical Pacific Ocean state without ocean circulation.

  18. Determining the early history of El Nino

    SciTech Connect

    DeVries, T.J.; Ortlieb, L.; Diaz, A.

    1997-05-09

    This technical comment presents two analyses of Daniel H. Sandweiss article which reiterates arguments advanced a decade ago that climatic and oceanic changes 5000 years before present (B.P.) resulted in the onset of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events along the coast of Peru. Included is a rebuttal by the original author. 32 refs.

  19. Tropical inter-annual SST oscillations and Southern Ocean swells

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fan, Yalin; Rogers, Erick; Jensen, Tommy

    2016-04-01

    The possibility of teleconnections between Southern Ocean swells and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on inter-annual time scales in the Eastern Pacific Niño3 region and southeastern Indian Ocean is investigated using numerical wave models. Two alternative parameterizations for swell dissipation are used. It is found that swell dissipation in the models is not directly correlated with large inter-annual variations such as the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). However, using one of the two swell dissipation parameterizations, a correlation is found between observed SST anomalies and the modification of turbulent kinetic energy flux (TKEF) by Southern Ocean swells due to the damping of short wind waves: modeled reduction of TKEF is in opposite phase with the SST anomalies in the Niño-3 region, indicating a potential positive feedback. The modeled bi-monthly averaged TKEF reduction in the southeastern Indian Ocean is also well correlated with the IOD mode.

  20. Interaction of Volcanic Forcing and El Nino: Sensitivity to the Eruption Magnitude and El Nino Intensity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Predybaylo, Evgeniya; Wittenberg, Andrew; Stenchikov, Georgiy

    2015-04-01

    Volcanic aerosols formed in the stratosphere after strong explosive eruptions influence Earth's radiative balance, affecting atmospheric and oceanic temperatures and circulation. It was observed that the recent volcanic eruptions frequently occurred in El Nino years. Analysis of the paleo data confirms that the probability of a sequent El Nino occurrence after the eruption increases. To better understand the physical mechanism of this interaction we employed ocean-atmosphere coupled climate model CM2.1, developed in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, and conducted a series of numerical experiments using initial conditions with different El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strengths forced by volcanic eruptions of different magnitudes, Pinatubo of June 1991 and Tambora of April 1815: (i) strong ENSO/Pinatubo, (ii) weak ENSO/Pinatubo, (iii) strong ENSO/Tambora. The amount of ejected material from the Tambora eruption was about three times greater than that of the Pinatubo eruption. The initial conditions with El Nino were sampled from the CM2.1 long control run. Our simulations show the enhancement of El Nino in the second year after an eruption. We found that the spatial-temporal structure of model responses is sensitive to both the magnitude of an eruption and the strength of El Nino. We analyzed the ocean dynamic in the tropical Pacific for all cases to uncover the physical mechanism, resulting in the enhanced and/or prolonged El Nino.

  1. On the structure of the Southern Oscillation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chao, YI; Philander, S. G. H.

    1993-01-01

    A realistic oceanic general circulation model is forced with winds observed over the tropical Pacific between 1967 and 1979. The structure of the simulated Southern Oscillation is strikingly different in the western and eastern sides of the basin, because the principal interannual zonal-wind fluctuations are confined to the west and are in the form of an equatorial jet. This causes thermocline displacements to have maxima off the equator in the west (where the curl of the wind is large) but on the equator in the east. Zonal phase propagation, both on and off the equator, is at different speeds in the west and east. The phase pattern is complex, and there is, on interannual time scale, no explicit evidence of individual equatorial waves. These results lead to a modification of the 'delayed oscillator' mechanism originally proposed by Schopf and Suarez to explain a continual Southern Oscillation. The results also permit an evaluation of the various coupled ocean-atmosphere models that simulate the Southern Oscillation and indicate which measurements are necessary to determine which models are most relevant to reality.

  2. Spatial Patterns of Variability in Antarctic Surface Temperature: Connections to the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode and the Southern Oscillation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kwok, Ron; Comiso, Josefino C.; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The 17-year (1982-1998) trend in surface temperature shows a general cooling over the Antarctic continent, warming of the sea ice zone, with moderate changes over the oceans. Warming of the peripheral seas is associated with negative trends in the regional sea ice extent. Effects of the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM) and the extrapolar Southern Oscillation (SO) on surface temperature are quantified through regression analysis. Positive polarities of the SAM are associated with cold anomalies over most of Antarctica, with the most notable exception of the Antarctic Peninsula. Positive temperature anomalies and ice edge retreat in the Pacific sector are associated with El Nino episodes. Over the past two decades, the drift towards high polarity in the SAM and negative polarity in the SO indices couple to produce a spatial pattern with warmer temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula and peripheral seas, and cooler temperatures over much of East Antarctica.

  3. East Australian rainfall events: Interannual variations, trends, and relationships with the Southern Oscillation

    SciTech Connect

    Nicholls, N.; Kariko, A. )

    1993-06-01

    The number, average length, and average intensity of rain events at five stations located in eastern Australia have been calculated for each year from 1910 to 1988, using daily rainfall totals. A rain event has been defined as a period of consecutive days on which rainfall has been recorded on each day. Inter-relationships between the rain-event variables (at each station and between stations), along with their relationships with annual rainfall and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, have been investigated. Trends in the time series of the rain-event variables have also been examined. Annual rainfall variations are found to be primarily caused by variations in intensity. Fluctuations in the three rain-event variables are essentially independent of each other. This is due, in some cases, to inter-relationships at interdecadal time scales offsetting relationships of the opposite sense at shorter time scales. The large-scale geographical nature of east Australian rainfall fluctuations mainly reflects interstation correlations in the number of events. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation affects rainfall mainly by influencing the number and intensity of rain events. Twentieth century increases in east Australian rainfall have been due, primarily, to increased numbers of events. Intensity of rain events has generally declined, offsetting some of the increase in rainfall expected from more frequent events. Information about historical trends in australian rain events might provide a basis for determining if rainfall change were due to an enhanced greenhouse effect. 31 refs., 13 figs.

  4. Can El Nino Amplify the Solar Forcing of Climate?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ruzmaikin, A.

    1999-01-01

    ENSO (El Nino and the Southern Oscillation) is considered as a stochastic driver that excites the atmospheric anomaly states, such as Pacific North American pattern. This can make the 11 year solar activity forcing feasible to climate through stochastic resonance -- a phenomenon that amplifies a weak input to a nonlinear bistable system by the assistance of noise.

  5. On the predictability of the interannual behaviour of the Madden-Julian oscillation and its relationship with El Nino

    SciTech Connect

    Sperber, K.R., LLNL

    1998-03-01

    The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of tropical variability at intraseasonal timescales. It displays substantial interannual variability in intensity which may have important implications for the predictability of the coupled system. The reasons for this interannual variability are not understood. The aim of this paper is to investigate whether the interannual behavior of the MJO is related to tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, particularly El Nino, and hence whether it is predictable. The interannual behavior of the MJO has been diagnosed initially in the 40-year NCEP/ NCAR Reanalysis. The results suggest that prior to the mid-1970s the activity of the MJO was consistently lower than during the latter part of the record. This may be related to either inadequacies in the data coverage, particularly over the tropical Indian Ocean prior to the introduction of satellite observations, or to the real effects of a decadal timescale warming in the tropical SSTs. The teleconnection patterns between interannual variations in MJO activity and SST show only a weak, barely significant, influence of El Nino in which the MJO is more active during the cold phase. As well as the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, a 4-member ensemble of 45 year integrations with the Hadley Centre climate model (HadAM2a), forced by observed SSTs for 1949-93, has been used to investigate the relationship between MJO activity and SST. HadAM2a is known to give a reasonable simulation of the MJO and the extended record provided by this ensemble of integrations allows a more robust investigation of the predictability of MJO activity than was possible with the 40-year NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis. The results have shown that, for the uncoupled system, with the atmosphere being driven by imposed SSTS, there is no reproducibility for the activity of the MJO from year to year. The interannual behavior of the MJO is not controlled by the phase of El Nino and would appear to be chaotic in

  6. Evidence of recent warming and El Nino-related variations in ice breakup of Wisconsin lakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Anderson, W.L.; Robertson, D.M.; Magnuson, J.J.

    1996-01-01

    Ice breakup dates from 1968 to 1988 were examined for 20 Wisconsin lakes to determine whether consistent interannual and long-term changes exist. Each ice record had a trend toward earlier breakup dates, as demonstrated by a negative slope with time, indicating a recent warming trend. The average change in breakup dates was 0.82 d earlier per year for the lakes in southern Wisconsin, which was more extreme than that for the northern Wisconsin lakes (0.45 d yr-1). Interannual variation in breakup dates was related to the warm phase of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes. El Nino events occurred five times during this period (1965, 1972, 1976, 1982, and 1986). Average breakup dates were significantly earlier than average (5-14 d) during the mature phase of El Nino. This variability was affected by the location of the lake: El Nino-related variation was more evident for the southern lakes than the northern lakes. This difference was caused by the average date of breakup for the southern lakes being in late March directly following the period when air temperatures were strongly related to El Nino events, whereas the average dates of breakup of the northern lakes was in mid- to late April following a period when air temperatures were not significantly related to El Nino events. Overall, the interannual and long-term patterns across Wisconsin were relatively consistent, indicating that recent warming and El Nino- related variation are regional climatic responses.

  7. A New Teleconnection : The Australian Southern Oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, A.; Liess, S.; Kawale, J.; Steinhaeuser, K.; Ormsby, D.; Kumar, V.; Chatterjee, S.

    2012-12-01

    A possibly new teleconnection has been discovered off the east coast of Australia in the region around Tasman sea and Southern Ocean. Found in pressure anomalies using a novel graph based approach called Shared Reciprocal Nearest Neighbors, this dipole appears in reanalysis datasets such as NCEP, JRA, ERA and MERRA. The HadSLP2 observation data shows the new dipole, despite of limited observations in the Tasman Sea. Tests are performed in order to understand the uniqueness of the dipole and its relationship to existing well known phenomena. The dipole index is correlated with known dipole indices such as the SO (Southern Oscillation), AAO (Antarctic Oscillation) with which it shares a higher correlation of less than 0.4 and other northern teleconnections with which it is shown to have a poor relationship. Seasonal analysis is done to look at the variation in strength as well as its influence on other variables such as TAS (Temperature at Surface), OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation). We discover the dipole and also look at composite maps and do significance tests at different geopotential heights - 700 hPa, 500 hPa and 50 hPa to determine the significant regions in these maps. We also determine regions that are solely influenced by the new dipole index only and determine if the dipole is a sea surface phenomenon like the SO or an upper atmospheric phenomenon like the AAO. Our tests have shown that we may indeed be looking at a new phenomenon and further tests are being conducted to confirm that. This work was supported by NSF grants IIS-1029711.

  8. Two Distinct Roles of Atlantic SSTs in ENSO Variability: North Tropical Atlantic SST and Atlantic Nino

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ham, Yoo-Geun; Kug, Jong-Seong; Park, Jong-Yeon

    2013-01-01

    Two distinct roles of the Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), namely, the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) SST and the Atlantic Nino, on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability are investigated using the observational data from 1980 to 2010 and coupled model experiments. It appears that the NTA SST and the Atlantic Nino can be used as two independent predictors for predicting the development of ENSO events in the following season. Furthermore, they are likely to be linked to different types of El Nino events. Specifically, the NTA SST cooling during February, March, and April contributes to the central Pacific warming at the subsequent winter season, while the negative Atlantic Nino event during June, July, and August contributes to enhancing the eastern Pacific warming. The coupled model experiments support these results. With the aid of a lagged inverse relationship, the statistical forecast using two Atlantic indices can successfully predict various ENSO indices.

  9. Response of the Antarctic Stratosphere to Two Types of El Nino Events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hurwitz, M. M.; Newman, P. A.; Oman, L. D.; Molod, A. M.

    2010-01-01

    This study is the first to identify a robust El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal in the Antarctic stratosphere. El Nino events are classified as either conventional "cold tongue" events (positive SST anomalies in the Nino 3 region) or "warm pool" events (positive SST anomalies in the Nino 4 region). The ERA-40, NCEP and MERRA meteorological reanalyses are used to show that the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere responds differently to these two types of El Nino events. Consistent with previous studies, "cold tongue" events do not impact temperatures in the Antarctic stratosphere. During "warm pool" El Nino events, the poleward extension and increased strength of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) favor an enhancement of planetary wave activity during the SON season. On average, these conditions lead to higher polar stratospheric temperatures and a weakening of the Antarctic polar jet in November and December, as compared with neutral ENSO years. The phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) modulates the stratospheric response to "warm pool" El Nino events: the strongest planetary wave driving events are coincident with the easterly phase of the QBO.

  10. Evolution of the Southern Oscillation as observed by the Nimbus-7 ERB experiment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ardanuy, Philip E.; Kyle, H. Lee; Chang, Hyo-Duck

    1987-01-01

    The Nimbus-7 satellite has been in a 955-km, sun-synchronous orbit since October 1978. The Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) experiment has taken approximately 8 years of high-quality data during this time, of which seven complete years have been archived at the National Space Science Data Center. A final reprocessing of the wide-field-of-view channel dataset is underway. Error analyses indicate a long-term stability of 1 percent better over the length of the data record. As part of the validation of the ERB measurements, the archived 7-year Nimbus-7 ERB dataset is examined for the presence and accuracy of interannual variations including the Southern Oscillation signal. Zonal averages of broadband outgoing longwave radiation indicate a terrestrial response of more than 2 years to the oceanic and atmospheric manifestations of the 1982-83 El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event, especially in the tropics. This signal is present in monthly and seasonal averages and is shown here to derive primarily from atmospheric responses to adjustments in the Pacific Ocean. The calibration stability of this dataset thus provides a powerful new tool to examine the physics of the ENSO phenomena.

  11. A note on the modulation of Southern Oscillation-Southern Afican rainfall associations with the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

    SciTech Connect

    Mason, S.J.; Lindesay, J.A. )

    1993-05-20

    The authors look at correlations between the southern oscillation and rainfall in South Africa. Since the 1950's there has been a reasonably stable correlation, but there have been times when the correlation seems to have broken down. They look at the question of whether the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation can be involved in this correlation. There is a limited correlation found, but its evidence depends upon the westerly or easterly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation, and only correlates certain seasonal conditions of the southern oscillation, South African rainfall data.

  12. Impact of El Niño-southern oscillation on Indian foodgrain production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Selvaraju, R.

    2003-02-01

    The impact of El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO) on Indian foodgrain production was analysed for the period 1950-99. The inverse relationship between sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies from June to August (JJA) over the NINO3 sector of the tropical Pacific Ocean and Indian foodgrain production anomalies (r = -0.50) was significant at the 1% level. During the warm ENSO phase, the total foodgrain production frequently decreased (12 out of 13 years) by 1 to 15%. In 10 out of 13 cold ENSO-phase years, the total foodgrain production increased from normal. The relationship between the SST-based NINO3 ENSO index and the Kharif season (June-September) foodgrain production anomalies (r = -0.52) was greater than for the Rabi season (October-February) foodgrain production (r = -0.27). The ENSO impact on rice production was greatest among the individual crops. The average drop in rice (Kharif season crop) production during a warm ENSO-phase year was 3.4 million tonnes (7%). In a cold ENSO-phase year the average production increase was 1.3 million tones (3%). Wheat (Rabi season crop) production was also influenced by ENSO, as it depends on the carryover soil water storage from the Kharif season. Sorghum and chickpea production are not significantly influenced by ENSO extremes. Inter-annual fluctuation of the gross value of Indian foodgrain production was very large, reducing up to US2183 million in a warm ENSO year and increasing up to US1251 million in a cold ENSO year. On average, a warm ENSO year costs US773 million and a cold ENSO year had a financial gain of US437 million from normal. The cumulative probability distributions of foodgrain production anomalies during cold and warm ENSO phases are shifted positively or negatively, relative to the neutral distribution. The warm ENSO forcing significantly (1% level) reduced the probability of above-average production. The cold ENSO forcing moderately increased the above-average foodgrain production over the neutral ENSO

  13. El Nino: a chaotic dynamical system

    SciTech Connect

    Vallis, G.K.

    1986-04-11

    Most of the principal qualitative features of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon can be explained by a simple but physically motivated theory. These features are the occurrence of sea-surface warmings in the eastern equatorial Pacific and the associated trade wind reversal; the aperiodicity of these events; the preferred onset time with respect to the seasonal cycle; and the much weaker events in the Atlantic and Indian oceans. The theory, in its simplest form, is a conceptual model for the interaction of just three variables, namely near-surface temperatures in the east and west equatorial ocean and a wind-driven current advecting the temperature field. For a large range of parameters, the model is naturally chaotic and aperiodically produces El Nino-like events. For a smaller basin, representing a smaller ocean, the events are proportionally less intense.

  14. Does Terrestrial Drought Explain Global CO2 Flux Anomalies Induced by El Nino?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schwalm. C. R.; Williams, C. A.; Schaefer, K.; Baker, I.; Collatz, G. J.; Roedenbeck, C.

    2011-01-01

    The El Nino Southern Oscillation is the dominant year-to-year mode of global climate variability. El Nino effects on terrestrial carbon cycling are mediated by associated climate anomalies, primarily drought, influencing fire emissions and biotic net ecosystem exchange (NEE). Here we evaluate whether El Nino produces a consistent response from the global carbon cycle. We apply a novel bottom-up approach to estimating global NEE anomalies based on FLUXNET data using land cover maps and weather reanalysis. We analyze 13 years (1997-2009) of globally gridded observational NEE anomalies derived from eddy covariance flux data, remotely-sensed fire emissions at the monthly time step, and NEE estimated from an atmospheric transport inversion. We evaluate the overall consistency of biospheric response to El Nino and, more generally, the link between global CO2 flux anomalies and El Nino-induced drought. Our findings, which are robust relative to uncertainty in both methods and time-lags in response, indicate that each event has a different spatial signature with only limited spatial coherence in Amazonia, Australia and southern Africa. For most regions, the sign of response changed across El Nino events. Biotic NEE anomalies, across 5 El Nino events, ranged from -1.34 to +0.98 Pg Cyr(exp -1, whereas fire emissions anomalies were generally smaller in magnitude (ranging from -0.49 to +0.53 Pg C yr(exp -1). Overall drought does not appear to impose consistent terrestrial CO2 flux anomalies during El Ninos, finding large variation in globally integrated responses from 11.15 to +0.49 Pg Cyr(exp -1). Despite the significant correlation between the CO2 flux and El Nino indices, we find that El Nino events have, when globally integrated, both enhanced and weakened terrestrial sink strength, with no consistent response across events

  15. Adaptive filtering and prediction of the Southern Oscillation index

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keppenne, Christian L.; Ghil, Michael

    1992-12-01

    Singular spectrum analysis (SSA), a variant of principal component analysis, is applied to a time series of the Southern Oscillation index (SOI). The analysis filters out variability unrelated to the Southern Oscillation and separates the high-frequency, 2- to 3-year variability, including the quasi-biennial oscillation, from the lower-frequency 4- to 6-year El Niño cycle. The maximum entropy method (MEM) is applied to forecasting the prefiltered SOI. Prediction based on MEM-associated autoregressive models has useful skill for 30-36 months. A 1993-1994 La Niña event is predicted based on data through February 1992.

  16. Can the GEOS CCM Simulate the Temperature Response to Warm Pool El Nino Events in the Antarctic Stratosphere?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hurwitz, M. M.; Song, I.-S.; Oman, L. D.; Newman, P. A.; Molod, A. M.; Frith, S. M.; Nielsen, J. E.

    2010-01-01

    "Warm pool" (WP) El Nino events are characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific. During austral spring. WP El Nino events are associated with an enhancement of convective activity in the South Pacific Convergence Zone, provoking a tropospheric planetary wave response and thus increasing planetary wave driving of the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere. These conditions lead to higher polar stratospheric temperatures and to a weaker polar jet during austral summer, as compared with neutral ENSO years. Furthermore, this response is sensitive to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO): a stronger warming is seen in WP El Nino events coincident with the easterly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) as compared with WP El Nino events coincident with a westerly or neutral QBO. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) is used to further explore the atmospheric response to ENSO. Time-slice simulations are forced by composited SSTs from observed WP El Nino and neutral ENSO events. The modeled eddy heat flux, temperature and wind responses to WP El Nino events are compared with observations. A new gravity wave drag scheme has been implemented in the GEOS CCM, enabling the model to produce a realistic, internally generated QBO. By repeating the above time-slice simulations with this new model version, the sensitivity of the WP El Nino response to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation QBO is estimated.

  17. Can the GEOS CCM Simulate the Temperature Response to Warm Pool El Nino Events in the Antarctic Stratosphere?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hurwitz, M. M.; Song, I.-S.; Oman, L. D.; Newman, P. A.; Molod, A. M.; Frith, S. M.; Nielsen, J. E.

    2011-01-01

    "Warm pool" (WP) El Nino events are characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific. During austral spring, WP El Nino events are associated with an enhancement of convective activity in the South Pacific Convergence Zone, provoking a tropospheric planetary wave response and thus increasing planetary wave driving of the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere. These conditions lead to higher polar stratospheric temperatures and to a weaker polar jet during austral summer, as compared with neutral ENSO years. Furthermore, this response is sensitive to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO): a stronger warming is seen in WP El Nino events coincident with the easterly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) as compared with WP El Nino events coincident with a westerly or neutral QBO. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) is used to further explore the atmospheric response to ENSO. Time-slice simulations are forced by composited SSTs from observed NP El Nino and neutral ENSO events. The modeled eddy heat flux, temperature and wind responses to WP El Nino events are compared with observations. A new gravity wave drag scheme has been implemented in the GEOS CCM, enabling the model to produce e realistic, internally generated QBO. By repeating the above time-slice simulations with this new model version, the sensitivity of the WP El Nino response to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation QBO is estimated.

  18. Experimental forecasts of El Nino

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cane, M. A.; Zebiak, S. E.; Dolan, S. C.

    1986-01-01

    A deterministic numerical model of the coupled evolution of the tropical ocean and atmosphere was used to forecast all El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events from 1970 to 1986. More particularly, the model, originally developed for studying large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions in the tropics, successfully predicted the characteristics of the spatial and temporal structure of ENSO observed in the study interval. The model indicated that rainfall moving eastward over the Pacific slackens the surface winds that would otherwise cool the eastern Pacific by drawing up cooler subsurface waters. The oceanic thermocline increases, a poleward flow of westerly flowing warn waters deplets the equatorial warm water reservoir, and sea surface temperatures decline. These ENSO conditions are statistically tractable with the model several months in advance, provided upper ocean layer thermal data are available.

  19. El Nino.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blueford, Joyce

    1988-01-01

    Information is presented regarding "El Nino," a warm ocean current which has a profound worldwide effect on ocean life and weather patterns. Suggestions are provided for teaching students about the current and other related topics. (CB)

  20. Experiments on the Southern Oscillation with CAM3 coupled to a Mixed Layer Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Monier, E.; Sokolov, A. P.

    2010-12-01

    Recent modeling studies suggest that the atmospheric component plays a dominant role in the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. In particular, simulations in which an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) is coupled to a mixed-layer ocean model can produce ‘ENSO-like’ variability with associated patterns in SST, precipitation, or atmospheric circulation similar to that of ENSO, and referred to as 'Atmospheric Walker Mode' (AWM). In the absence of Bjerknes feedback (no ocean dynamics), the AWM relies on ocean-to-atmosphere latent heat flux and cloud forcing feedback. To study the AWM, we perform a number of experiments using the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) version 3 coupled to a mixed-layer ocean, including varying the model resolution and the depth of the mixed layer. We investigate the possible climate change impacts on the AWM by carrying out a number of equilibrium climate change simulations for a doubled CO2 with different values of the model's climate sensitivity. Results show that both the magnitude and the periodicity of the simulated AWM are rather different. This study provides further insight into the ENSO response to increasing greenhouse gas—induced radiative forcing.

  1. What happened to El Nino during the early Holocene?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Philander, S. G.

    2002-12-01

    Coral records from the tropical Pacific indicate that interannual fluctuations associated with El Nino today were absent during the early Holocene until approximately 5000 years ago. Some authors claim that, at that time, the waters off Ecuador and northern Peru were permanently warm, but explaining the persistence of arid conditions along the coast is then a problem. Another ossibility, supported by some measurements, is that El Nino occurred less often, every decade or so. To theoreticians, these findings raise two sets of questions. First, El Nino can be regarded as part of a natural mode of oscillation that depends on background conditions such as H the mean depth of the thermocline, TX the intensity of the mean winds etc. What changes in the background conditions, in values of H, TX etc, will result in either permanently warm conditions, or El Nino with a very low frequency? Stability analyses of ocean-atmosphere interactions indicate that if the thermocline was deeper than today, then weak winds would have resulted in permanently warm conditions, but strong trades would have resulted in infrequent El Nino episodes. Next we have to ask why the background conditions changed. During the Holocene precession of the Earth¡s axis caused first the northern hemisphere, then the southern hemisphere to experience warmer summers, colder winters. As a result the Sahara had lakes, Lake Titicaca was dry, and apparently the trade winds were strong during the early Holocene. To test the inference that El Nino became a very low frequency phenomenon during the early Holocene requires information about the depth of the thermocline and the intensity of the trades at that time.

  2. Cholera dynamics and El Niño-Southern Oscillation.

    PubMed

    Pascual, M; Rodó, X; Ellner, S P; Colwell, R; Bouma, M J

    2000-09-01

    Analysis of a monthly 18-year cholera time series from Bangladesh shows that the temporal variability of cholera exhibits an interannual component at the dominant frequency of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Results from nonlinear time series analysis support a role for both ENSO and previous disease levels in the dynamics of cholera. Cholera patterns are linked to the previously described changes in the atmospheric circulation of south Asia and, consistent with these changes, to regional temperature anomalies. PMID:10976073

  3. Interannual variability of the Indian monsoon and the Southern Oscillation

    SciTech Connect

    Wu, M.; Hastenrath, S.

    1986-01-01

    Years with abundant Southwest monsoon rainfall in India are characterized by anomalously low pressure over South Asia and the adjacent waters, enhanced cross-equatorial flow in the western, and increased cloudiness over the northern portion of the Indian Ocean, continuing from the pre-monsoon through the post-monsoon season; positive temperature anomalies over land and in the Arabian Sea in the pre-monsoon season, changing to negative departures after the monsoon onset. The following causality chain is suggested: the anomalously warm surfaces of south Asia and the adjacent ocean in the pre-monsoon season induce a thermal low, thus enhancing the northward directed pressure gradient, and favoring a vigorous cross-equatorial flow over the Indian Ocean. After the monsoon onset the land surfaces are cooled by evaporation, and the Arabian Sea surface waters by various wind stress effects. However, latent heat release over South Asia can now maintain the meridional topography gradients essential to the monsoon circulation. The positive phase of the Southern Oscillation (high pressure over the Eastern South Pacific) is associated with circulation departures in the Indian Ocean sector similar to those characteristic of years with abundant India monsoon rainfall. Abundant rainfall over India during the northern summer monsoon leads the positive mode of the southern Oscillation, and this in turn leads Java rainfall, whose peak is timed about half a year after that of India. A rising Southern Oscillation tendency presages abundant India Southwest Monsoon rainfall but a late monsoon onset. 46 references, 9 figures, 4 tables.

  4. Modulation of the Global Wind Resource by the El-Nino

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gunturu, U. B.; Yip, C. M. A.; Stenchikov, G. L.

    2014-12-01

    El-Nino is the most important climate scale oscillation in the tropical atmosphere and earlier studies have shown that it impacts weather in different parts of the world. Since the long-term stability of wind resource is a primary requirement for the reliability of wind power generation, any modulation of the wind resource by the El-Nino constitutes valuable information for efficient harvesting of wind. In this study, we construct the global wind resource as described in Gunturu & Schlosser (2012) and use the method of composites to understand the impact of the El-Nino on the global wind resource. The results show that the impact of the El-Nino is to decrease the wind resource in the central United States, southern Australia and north central Africa. Further, interestingly, the wind resource increases in the Nordic sea and the continental areas around it. The Deccan plateau region of India also has reduced WPD due to the El-Nino as shown by the composites. On the other hand, the central US and southern Australia have increased WPD due to La-Nina and the resource decreases in India. The statistically significant results will be further discussed for their implications to the long term stability of the wind resource in the different regions of the world. We also substantiate the results with other suitable metrics.

  5. El Nino and outgoing longwave radiation: An atlas of Nimbus-7 Earth radiation budget observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kyle, H. L.; Ardanuy, P. E.; Hucek, R. R.

    1986-01-01

    Five years of broadband Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) measurements taken by the Nimbus-7 ERB experiment have been archived. This five year period included the 1982 to 1983 El Nino/Southern Oscillation event, which reached its peak in January 1983 (near the beginning of the fifth data year). An outgoing longwave radiation subset of the data, for the period June 1980 to October 1983, was processed to enhance spatial resolution. This atlas contains the analyses of the resultant fields. In addition, a set of anomaly maps, based on a definition of pre-El Nino climatology, is included. Together, these two sets of maps provide the first broadband glimpse of the terrestrial outgoing longwave radiation response to the El Nino event.

  6. Spatiotemporal Variability of El Niño Southern Oscillation from Geodetic Satellites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Y.-H.; García-García, D.; Chao, B. F.

    2009-04-01

    The global mean sea level rose at about 2.46 mm/year during 1930 and 2007. Many global change phenomena have been well observed and monitored, such as temperature rise in the polar region and large-scale ice melting, precipitation and ocean salinity changes, wind field and severe weather intensification, etc. The two main causes of the sea level variation (SLV) are thermal expansion and mass changes within oceans resulting from climate shift, but their relative share in the total SLV is still uncertain. We hereby study the SLV around tropical oceans in relation to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and their variability in space-time. We employ the method of C/EOF (Complex/Empirical Orthogonal Function) to analyze various physical parameters in the region and their space-time variability. We find: (1) Using the satellite ocean altimeter data to study SLV in relation to ENSO variations revealed that from 1993 to 2007 the first mode's time series of Complex EOF suggests high correspondence to the SOI and Nino3.4 index; (2) We additionally extracted the spatial propagation with time evolution of ENSO SLV; (3) Time variable gravity (TVG) over the ENSO region obtained from GRACE satellite data suggests weaker mass migration signals than SLV, although larger uncertainty is expected from GRACE over low latitudes; (4) Using the GCM output (such as ECCO, and MERCATOR), e.g. salinity and temperature profiles with reference to the ocean altimeter and GRACE data revealed the characters of steric or mass-induced SLV during the ENSO events. Preliminary results show that both SLV and SST anomaly had a steady increase after the strongest 1997-98 ENSO event, but not present in the steric SLV conducted according to the GCMs, presumably due to the general underestimation in the latter.

  7. Global Precipitation during the 1997-98 El Nino and Initiation of the 1998-99 La Nina

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Curtis, Scott; Adler, Robert; Huffman, George; Nelkin, Eric; Bolvin, David

    1999-01-01

    The 1997-99 ENSO (El nino Southern Oscillation) cycle was very powerful, but also well observed. The best satellite rainfall estimates combined with gauge observations allow for a global analysis of precipitation anomalies accompanying the 1997-98 El Nino and initiation of the 1998-99 La Nina. For the period April 1997 to March 1998 the central to eastern Pacific, southeastern and western U.S., Argentina, eastern Africa, South China, eastern Russia, and North Atlantic were all more than two standard deviations wetter than normal. During the same year the Maritime Continent, eastern Indian Ocean, subtropical North Pacific, northeastern South America, and much of the mid- latitude southern oceans were more than two standard deviations drier than normal. An analysis of the evolution of the El Nino and accompanying precipitation anomalies revealed that a dry Maritime Continent led the formation of the El Nino SST (Sea Surface Temperature), while in the central Pacific, precipitation anomalies lagged the El Nino SST by a season. A rapid transition from El Nino to La Nina occurred in May 1998, but as early as October-November 1997 precipitation indices captured precursor changes in Pacific rainfall anomalies. Differences were found between observed and modeled [NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis] precipitation anomalies for 1997 and 98. In particular, the model had a bias towards positive precipitation anomalies and the magnitudes of the anomalies in the equatorial Pacific were small compared to the observations. Also, the evolution of the precipitation field, including the drying of the Maritime Continent and eastward progression of rainfall in the equatorial Pacific, was less pronounced for the model compared to the observations. One degree daily estimates of rainfall show clearly the MaddenJulian Oscillation and related westerly wind burst events over the Maritime Continent, which are key

  8. Organization of extratropical transients during El Nino

    SciTech Connect

    Hoerling, M.P. ); Ting, Mingfang )

    1994-05-01

    Four observed El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are studied to determine the mechanisms responsible for the anomalous extratropical atmospheric circulation during northern winter. A parallel analysis of a GCM's response to El Nino is performed in order to assess if similar mechanisms are operative in the model atmosphere. The observed stationary wave anomalies over the Pacific/North American (PNA) region are found to be similar during the four winters despite appreciable differences in sea surface temperatures. The anomalous transient vorticity fluxes are remarkably robust over the North Pacific during each even, with an eastward extension of the climatological storm track leading to strong cyclonic forcing near 40[degrees]N, 150[degrees]W. This forcing is in phase with the seasonal mean Aleutian trough anomaly suggesting the important of eddy-mean flow interaction. By comparison, the intersample variability of the GCM response over the PNA region is found to exceed the observed inter-El Nino variability. This stems primarily from a large variability in the model's anomalous transients over the North Pacific. Further analysis reveals that extratropical vorticity transients are the primary mechanism maintaining the stationary wave anomalies over the PNA region during all four observed ENSO winters. In the case of the GCM, the organization of transient eddies is ill defined over the North Pacific, a behavior indicative of model error. A physical model is proposed to explain the robustness of the tropical controlling influence of the extratropical transients in nature. A simple equatorial Pacific heat source directly forces a tropical anticyclone whose phase relative to the climatological tropical anticyclone leads to an eastward extension of the subtropical jet stream. This mechanism appears to be equally effective for a heat source located either in the central or eastern Pacific basin. 36 refs., 14 figs.

  9. El Nino, volcanism, and global climate

    SciTech Connect

    Handler, P.; Andsager, K. )

    1994-03-01

    The June 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines produced one of the greatest volcanic aerosols in the last hundred years. The estimated net decrease of radiation may have peaked at 10% in the tropics. What was the impact of the Pinatubo aerosol on regional and global climate Besides the expected net cooling of the average global surface temperature, correlation studies indicate that other types of climate anomalies may also be expected. These include the appearance of an El Nino event, decreased Indian monsoon rainfall, fewer tropical storms in the north Atlantic Ocean in 1991-1993, and normal to above normal winter rainfall in California in 1991/92, all of which were observed. A proposed physical mechanism for the almost-simultaneous occurrence of this constellation of climate anomalies is presented. The results of correlation studies between low-latitude volcanic aerosols and the El Nino/Southern Oscillation are presented in some detail as one example. The correlation between Indian monsoon rainfall and tropical storms in the north Atlantic Ocean is also shown and is updated for the most recent 5 years.

  10. The influence of different El Nino types on the northern hemisphere stratosphere simulated by the MPI-ESM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bittner, Matthias; Timmreck, Claudia; Schmidt, Hauke

    2013-04-01

    It is known that the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), although it is mainly a tropospheric phenomenon, has an impact on the polar winter stratosphere [e.g. van Loon and Labitzke, 1987: Camp and Tung, 2007]. This has also been shown in simulations with general circulation models (GCM) [Sassi,et al. 2004, Manzini et al. 2006]. For a couple of years there are discussions about two different "flavors" of the the El Nino, the central Pacific (or Modoki) El Nino and the east Pacific El Nino [e.g. Wang and Weisberg, 2000; Yu and Kao, 2007; Ashok et al. 2007]. An observational study [Graf and Zanchettin, 2012] indicate that the polar vortex is more disturbed during EP El Ninos. Here we to investigate the influence of the equatorial sea surface temperatures on the stratosphere-troposphere coupling in the northern hemisphere winter season in a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-land GCM. We use two versions of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology model MPI-ESM, namely MPI-ESM-LR with lower T63 L47 atmosphere and GR15 ocean resolution and the MPI-ESM-MR with the same horizontal resolution in the atmosphere but a higher resolution in the vertical (L95) and in the ocean (TP04). To exclude effects of natural and anthropogenic forcing, we analyze a 1000 year coupled control simulation with pre-industrial greenhouse gas concentration and constant solar forcing (piControl). For comparison with reananlyis data we also analyze uncoupled atmosphere-only simulations with observed sea surface temperatures from 1979 until 2008 (AMIP). We compare three ways of defining El Nino: the central Pacific (CP), the east Pacific (EP) and the canonical Nino3.4 El Nino. We show to what extent the MPI-ESM is able to simulate these different types of El Nino and how they affect the polar stratosphere. The MPI-ESM model is in both versions capable of producing CP and EP El Ninos. However, the CP El Nino is dominant one in terms of magnitude and the EP El Nino has a relative small impact on global

  11. Variational iteration method for solving sea-air oscillator of the ENSO model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Noor, N. F. M.

    2015-10-01

    A class of sea-air oscillator of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mechanism is considered. Variational iteration method (VIM) is applied to generate approximate solution to the system. Numerical VIM solutions obtained are then compared with results from the analytical solution and the Runge-Kutta-Fehlberg method of fourth-fifth order (RKF45).

  12. Disruptions of El Niño–Southern Oscillation teleconnections by the Madden–Julian Oscillation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hoell, Andrew; Barlow, Mathew; Wheeler, Mathew; Funk, Christopher C.

    2014-01-01

    The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of interannual variability, with global impacts on weather and climate that have seasonal predictability. Research on the link between interannual ENSO variability and the leading mode of intraseasonal variability, the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), has focused mainly on the role of MJO initiating or terminating ENSO. We use observational analysis and modeling to show that the MJO has an important simultaneous link to ENSO: strong MJO activity significantly weakens the atmospheric branch of ENSO. For weak MJO conditions relative to strong MJO conditions, the average magnitude of ENSO-associated tropical precipitation anomalies increases by 63%, and the strength of hemispheric teleconnections increases by 58%. Since the MJO has predictability beyond three weeks, the relationships shown here suggest that there may be subseasonal predictability of the ENSO teleconnections to continental circulation and precipitation.

  13. El Nino during the 1990s: Harbinger of Climatic Change or Normal Fluctuation?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    1999-01-01

    Today, El Nino refers to the extreme warming episodes of the globally effective, coupled ocean-atmospheric interaction commonly known as ENSO (i.e., "El Nino-Southern Oscillation"). Concerning its observed decadal frequency and severity, El Nino during the 1990s has often been regarded as being anomalous. Results of analysis reported herein, however, appear to mitigate this belief. For example, regarding the frequency and severity of El Nino, the decade of the 1990s is found to compare quite favorably with that of preceding decades. Hence, the 1990s probably should not be regarded as being anomalous. On the other hand, the number of El Nino-related months per decade has sharply increased during the 1990s, as compared to the preceding four decades, hinting of a marginally significant upward trend. Perhaps, this is an indication that the Earth is now experiencing an ongoing global climatic change. Continued vigilance during the new millennium, therefore, is of paramount importance for determining whether or not this "hint" of a global change is real or if it merely reflects a normal fluctuation of climate.

  14. OLR-based El Nino and La Nina indices for impacts on global seasonal precipitation anomaly

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiodi, A. M.; Harrison, D. E.

    2012-12-01

    El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) associations with seasonal weather anomalies form the basis for statistical seasonal weather prediction in the regions around the globe where the statistical linkages between ENSO and seasonal weather behavior are strong enough. Although the commonly used ENSO definitions have been the basis of such statistical forecasts, there is growing interest in the question of whether or not they can be improved. Recently, an outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)-based index for warm-ENSO (El Nino) has been proposed and found to have a stronger statistical linkage to seasonal weather anomalies over the contiguous U.S. than the commonly used ENSO indices. We here introduce an OLR-based cool-ENSO (La Nina) index and examine the global seasonal atmospheric circulation and precipitation anomalies associated with the periods identified by the El Nino and La Nina OLR indices. We consider composites based on the identified OLR El Nino and OLR La Nina years, as well as those based on the other years that have been identified as ENSO years using conventional SSTA indices ("non-OLR ENSO" years). We show that most of the useful (statistically significant and "robust", or consistent from event to event) ENSO impacts on seasonal precipitation are due to the OLR El Nino and OLR La Nina years. Their composites indicate an overall "field significant" effect (p > 0.9) on global seasonal precipitation anomalies over several different seasons. With the exception of some land regions in the far western Pacific, composites based on the non-OLR ENSO years do not yield nearly as robust or statistically significant anomaly patterns as seen in the OLR ENSO composites. To the extent the behavior seen in the study period (1974-2011) continues, distinguishing OLR El Nino and OLR La Nina years from other non-OLR El Nino and non-OLR La Nina events will improve statistical seasonal forecasting efforts in the ENSO-affected regions around the globe.

  15. El Niño-Southern Oscillation frequency cascade.

    PubMed

    Stuecker, Malte F; Jin, Fei-Fei; Timmermann, Axel

    2015-11-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, the most pronounced feature of internally generated climate variability, occurs on interannual timescales and impacts the global climate system through an interaction with the annual cycle. The tight coupling between ENSO and the annual cycle is particularly pronounced over the tropical Western Pacific. Here we show that this nonlinear interaction results in a frequency cascade in the atmospheric circulation, which is characterized by deterministic high-frequency variability on near-annual and subannual timescales. Through climate model experiments and observational analysis, it is documented that a substantial fraction of the anomalous Northwest Pacific anticyclone variability, which is the main atmospheric link between ENSO and the East Asian Monsoon system, can be explained by these interactions and is thus deterministic and potentially predictable. PMID:26483455

  16. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and annual malaria incidence in Southern Africa.

    PubMed

    Mabaso, Musawenkosi L H; Kleinschmidt, Immo; Sharp, Brian; Smith, Thomas

    2007-04-01

    We evaluated the association between annual malaria incidence and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as measured by the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) in five countries in Southern Africa from 1988 to 1999. Below normal incidence of malaria synchronised with a negative SOI (El Niño) and above normal incidence with a positive SOI (La Niña), which lead to dry and wet weather conditions, respectively. In most countries there was a positive relationship between SOI and annual malaria incidence, especially where Anopheles arabiensis is a major vector. This mosquito breeds in temporary rain pools and is highly sensitive to fluctuations in weather conditions. South Africa and Swaziland have the most reliable data and showed the strongest associations, but the picture there may also be compounded by the moderating effect of other oscillatory systems in the Indian Ocean. The impact of ENSO also varies over time within countries, depending on existing malaria control efforts and response capacity. There remains a need for quantitative studies that at the same time consider both ENSO-driven climate anomalies and non-ENSO factors influencing epidemic risk potential to assess their relative importance in order to provide an empirical basis for malaria epidemic forecasting models. PMID:17064744

  17. Proxy Records of the Indonesian Low and the El Ni{tilde n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from Stable Isotope Measurements of Indonesian Reef Corals

    SciTech Connect

    Moore, M.D.

    1995-12-31

    The Earth`s largest atmospheric convective center is the Indonesian Low. It generates the Australasian monsoon, drives the zonal tropospheric Walker Circulation, and is implicated in the genesis of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The long-term variability of the Indonesian Low is poorly characterized, yet such information is crucial for evaluating whether changes in the strength and frequency of ENSO events are a possible manifestation of global warming. Stable oxygen isotope ratios ({delta}{sup 18}O) in shallow-water reef coral skeletons track topical convective activity over hundreds of years because the input of isotopically-depleted rainwater dilutes seawater {delta}{sup 18}O. Corals also impose a temperature-dependent fractionation on {delta}{sup 18}O, but where annual rainfall is high and sea surface temperature (SST) variability is low the freshwater flux effect dominates.

  18. The Evolution of El Nino-Precipitation Relationships from Satellites and Gauges

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Curtis, Scott; Adler, Robert F.; Starr, David OC (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    This study uses a twenty-three year (1979-2001) satellite-gauge merged community data set to further describe the relationship between El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and precipitation. The globally complete precipitation fields reveal coherent bands of anomalies that extend from the tropics to the polar regions. Also, ENSO-precipitation relationships were analyzed during the six strongest El Ninos from 1979 to 2001. Seasons of evolution, Pre-onset, Onset, Peak, Decay, and Post-decay, were identified based on the strength of the El Nino. Then two simple and independent models, first order harmonic and linear, were fit to the monthly time series of normalized precipitation anomalies for each grid block. The sinusoidal model represents a three-phase evolution of precipitation, either dry-wet-dry or wet-dry-wet. This model is also highly correlated with the evolution of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. The linear model represents a two-phase evolution of precipitation, either dry-wet or wet-dry. These models combine to account for over 50% of the precipitation variability for over half the globe during El Nino. Most regions, especially away from the Equator, favor the linear model. Areas that show the largest trend from dry to wet are southeastern Australia, eastern Indian Ocean, southern Japan, and off the coast of Peru. The northern tropical Pacific and Southeast Asia show the opposite trend.

  19. El Niño–Southern Oscillation diversity and Southern Africa teleconnections during Austral Summer

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hoell, Andrew; Funk, Christopher C.; Magadzire, Tamuka; Zinke, Jens; Husak, Gregory J.

    2014-01-01

    A wide range of sea surface temperature (SST) expressions have been observed during the El Niño–Southern Oscillation events of 1950–2010, which have occurred simultaneously with different global atmospheric circulations. This study examines the atmospheric circulation and precipitation during December–March 1950–2010 over the African Continent south of 15∘S, a region hereafter known as Southern Africa, associated with eight tropical Pacific SST expressions characteristic of El Niño and La Niña events. The self-organizing map method along with a statistical distinguishability test was used to isolate the SST expressions of El Niño and La Niña. The seasonal precipitation forcing over Southern Africa associated with the eight SST expressions was investigated in terms of the horizontal winds, moisture budget and vertical motion. El Niño events, with warm SST across the east and central Pacific Ocean and warmer than average SST over the Indian Ocean, are associated with precipitation reductions over Southern Africa. The regional precipitation reductions are forced primarily by large-scale mid-tropospheric subsidence associated with anticyclonic circulation in the upper troposphere. El Niño events with cooler than average SST over the Indian Ocean are associated with precipitation increases over Southern Africa associated with lower tropospheric cyclonic circulation and mid-tropospheric ascent. La Niña events, with cool SST anomalies over the central Pacific and warm SST over the west Pacific and Indian Ocean, are associated with precipitation increases over Southern Africa. The regional precipitation increases are forced primarily by lower tropospheric cyclonic circulation, resulting in mid-tropospheric ascent and an increased flux of moisture into the region.

  20. El Nino Continues to Grow

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    The latest image from NASA's Jason oceanography satellite, taken during a 10-day collection cycle ending December 2, 2002, shows the Pacific dominated by two significant areas of higher-than-normal sealevel (warmer ocean temperatures). In the central equatorial Pacific, the large area of higher than normal sea surface heights(warmer than normal sea surface temperatures) associated with growing El Nino conditions has recently migrated eastward toward the coast of South America. Meanwhile, the influence of the 20- to 30-year larger than El Nino/La Nina pattern called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation continues to create warm, higher-than-normal sea-surface heights in the north Pacific that are connected in a warm horseshoe pattern with the western and southern Pacific. Sea-surface heights are a measure of how much heat is stored in the ocean below. This heat influences both present weather and future planetary climate events.

    The image shows red areas in the north Pacific and at the equator that are about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal; white areas indicate sea surface heights between 14 and 32 centimeters (6 to 13 inches) above normal. These regions contrast with the western tropical Pacific, where lower-than-normal sea levels (blue areas) have developed that are between 5 and 13 centimeters (2 and 5 inches) below normal, while purple areas range from 14 to 18 centimeters (6 to 7 inches) below normal. Along the equator, the red sea surface heights equate to sea surface temperature departures greater than one degree Celsius (two degrees Fahrenheit) and the white sea surface heights are sea surface temperatures 1.5 to 2.5 degrees Celsius(three to five degrees Fahrenheit) above normal.

    The U.S. portion of the Jason mission is managed by JPL for NASA's Earth Science Enterprise, Washington, D.C. Research on Earth's oceans using Jason and other space-based capabilities is conducted by NASA's Earth Science Enterprise to better understand and protect our

  1. Historical effects of El Nino and La Nina events on the seasonal evolution of the montane snowpack in the Columbia and Colorado River Basins

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Clark, M.P.; Serreze, M.C.; McCabe, G.J.

    2001-01-01

    Snow-water equivalent (SWE) data measured at several hundred montane sites in the western United States are used to examine the historic effects of El Nino and La Nina events on seasonal snowpack evolution in the major subbasins in the Columbia and Colorado River systems. Results are used to predict annual runoff. In the Columbia River Basin, there is a general tendency for decreased SWE during El Nino years and increased SWE in La Nina years. However, the SWE anomalies for El Nino years are much less pronounced. This occurs in part because midlatitude circulation anomalies in El Nino years are located 35?? east of those in La Nina years. This eastward shift is most evident in midwinter, at which time, SWE anomalies associated with El Nino are actually positive in coastal regions of the Columbia River Basin. In the Colorado River Basin, mean anomalies in SWE and annual runoff during El Nino years depict a transition between drier-than-average conditions in the north, and wetter-than-average conditions in the southwest. Associations during La Nina years are generally opposite those in El Nino years. SWE anomalies tend to be more pronounced in spring in the Lower Colorado River Basin. Our predictions of runoff reveal modest skill for scenarios using only historic El Nino and La Nina information. Predictions based on the water stored in the seasonal snowpack are, in almost all cases, much higher than those based on El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) information alone. However, combining observed midwinter snow conditions with information on seasonal snowpack evolution associated with ENSO improves predictions for basins in which ENSO signals exhibit strong seasonality.

  2. Evolution of the 1997-98 El Nino and La Nina: the Role of Altimetry in ENSO Studies and Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Busalacchi, Antonio J.

    1998-01-01

    El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are known to be a quasi-periodic coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon occurring roughly every 3-7 years. Its largest oceanic manifestations are found in the equatorial Pacific, but it is of global climatic significance. During the flight of the TOPEX]Poseidon altimeter, the equatorial Pacific was in the midst of an unusual period of prolonged ENSO warming in the mid-1990's. In 1997, the tropical Pacific witnessed the development of a major El Nino event, rivaling in strength the 1982-83 El Nino. The intensity of this El Nino, and its rapid intensification early in the calendar year, caught the scientific community by surprise. None of the forecast models, statistical or dynamical, captured these features of the 1997 El Nino, although those models that assimilated in situ ocean observations did better than most in predicting that the event would occur in 1997. The onset of the El Nino coincided with the occurrence of several westerly wind events in the western Pacific rather than to delayed oscillator physics. However, western Pacific sea levels were anomalously elevated a year and a half prior to the onset, which may have helped precondition the system to a particularly strong ENSO episode. The coming of La Nina was foreshadowed by large-scale drops in sea level in the western tropical Pacific and cyclonic wind stress curl anomalies far beyond the +\\- 8 degrees latitude bounds of the TAO mooring array. In past El Nino events, the evolution of the coupled system could only be studied from the perspective of in situ observations. The 1997-1998 El Nino event will be the first time a major El Nino event will have been observed from start to finish via remotely-sensed measurements of sea surface topography, sea surface temperature, sea surface winds, ocean color, and precipitation. These observations have considerable potential for advancing coupled climate forecasts on time scales from seasons to decades. This presentation

  3. Southern Ocean Climate and Sea Ice Anomalies Associated with the Southern Oscillation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kwok, R.; Comiso, J. C.

    2001-01-01

    The anomalies in the climate and sea ice cover of the Southern Ocean and their relationships with the Southern Oscillation (SO) are investigated using a 17-year of data set from 1982 through 1998. We correlate the polar climate anomalies with the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and examine the composites of these anomalies under the positive (SOI > 0), neutral (0 > SOI > -1), and negative (SOI < -1) phases of SOL The climate data set consists of sea-level pressure, wind, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature fields, while the sea ice data set describes its extent, concentration, motion, and surface temperature. The analysis depicts, for the first time, the spatial variability in the relationship of the above variables and the SOL The strongest correlation between the SOI and the polar climate anomalies are found in the Bellingshausen, Amundsen and Ross sea sectors. The composite fields reveal anomalies that are organized in distinct large-scale spatial patterns with opposing polarities at the two extremes of SOI, and suggest oscillating climate anomalies that are closely linked to the SO. Within these sectors, positive (negative) phases of the SOI are generally associated with lower (higher) sea-level pressure, cooler (warmer) surface air temperature, and cooler (warmer) sea surface temperature in these sectors. Associations between these climate anomalies and the behavior of the Antarctic sea ice cover are clearly evident. Recent anomalies in the sea ice cover that are apparently associated with the SOI include: the record decrease in the sea ice extent in the Bellingshausen Sea from mid- 1988 through early 199 1; the relationship between Ross Sea SST and ENSO signal, and reduced sea ice concentration in the Ross Sea; and, the shortening of the ice season in the eastern Ross Sea, Amundsen Sea, far western Weddell Sea, and the lengthening of the ice season in the western Ross Sea, Bellingshausen Sea and central Weddell Sea gyre over the period 1988

  4. The Relationship Between El Nino/La Nina Oscillations and Recent Anomaly Time Series of OLR Determined by CERES and AIRS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Susskind, Joel; Molnar, Gyula; Iredell, Lena; Loeb, Norman G.

    2011-01-01

    This paper compares recent spatial anomaly time series of OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation) and OLRCLR (Clear Sky OLR) as determined using CERES and AIRS observations over the time period September 2002 through June 2010. We find excellent agreement in OLR anomaly time series of both data sets in almost every detail, down to the 1 x 1 spatial grid point level. This extremely close agreement of OLR anomaly time series derived from observations by two different instruments implies that both sets of results must be highly stable. This agreement also validates to some extent the anomaly time series of the AIRS derived products used in the computation of the AIRS OLR product. The paper then examines anomaly time series of AIRS derived products over the extended time period September 2002 through April 2011. We show that OLR anomalies during this period are closely in phase with those of an El Nino index, and that the recent global and tropical mean decreases in OLR and OLRCLR are a result of a transition from an El Nino condition at the beginning of the data record to La Nina conditions toward the end of the data period. We show that the relationship between global mean, and especially tropical mean, OLR anomalies to the El Nino index can be explained by temporal changes of the distribution of mid-tropospheric water vapor and cloud cover in two spatial regions that are in direct response to El Nino/La Nina activity which occurs outside these spatial regions.

  5. Rethinking the Ocean's Role in the Southern Oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clement, A. C.; di Nezio, P. N.; Deser, C.

    2010-12-01

    The usual explanation for variability in the Southern Oscillation (SO), a shift of atmospheric mass between the Indo-Pacific warm pool region and the eastern Pacific reflected in opposite sign changes in sea level pressure, involves dynamical coupling between the atmosphere and ocean via the ‘Bjerknes feedback’ mechanism. Here we revisit this explanation using a collection of simulations with atmospheric general circulation models that have varying degrees of coupling to the ocean. The main finding is that the SO emerges as a dominant mode of tropical Pacific variability without dynamical coupling to the ocean. Atmospheric models coupled to a mixed layer ocean (i.e. with no coupled ocean dynamics) simulate what is refered to here as an ‘Atmospheric Walker Mode’ (AWM). This mode of variability has patterns in sea level pressure, sea surface temperature, and precipitation which strongly resemble observed patterns associated with the SO. The spectrum of the AWM is red out to about a decadal timescale, consistent with a stochastically forced, weakly damped process, and our analysis suggests that variability in the AWM is related to variability in the NE and SE trade winds and associated surface wind divergence in the warm pool. The main influence of ocean dynamics on the SO in fully coupled climate models is the addition power primarily at interannual timescales, as expected from the positive Bjerknes feedback. On decadal and longer timescales, ocean dynamics enhance the damping of (or act as a negative feedback on) SO variability. However, interactive ocean dynamics do not appear to be required to set the first-order spatial structure of the SO or associated patterns in SST, precipitation, or atmospheric circulation. Implications for Pacific climate variability on interannual, decadal, and century timescales are discussed.

  6. Use of Microgravity to Assess the Effects of El Nino on Ground-Water Storage in Southern Arizona

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Parker, John T.C.; Pool, Donald R.

    1998-01-01

    The availability of ground water is of extreme importance in areas, such as southern Arizona, where it is the main supply for agricultural, industrial, or domestic purposes. Where ground-water use exceeds recharge, monitoring is critical for managing water supplies. Typically, monitoring has been done by measuring water levels in wells; however, this technique only partially describes ground-water conditions in a basin. A new application of geophysical technology is enabling U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists to measure changes in the amount of water in an aquifer using a network of microgravity stations. This technique enables a direct measurement of ground-water depletion and recharge. In Tucson, Arizona, residents have relied solely upon ground water for most of their needs since the 19th century. Water levels in some wells in the Tucson area have declined more than 200 ft in the past 50 years. Similar drops in water levels have occurred elsewhere in Arizona. In response to the overdrafting of ground water, the State of Arizona passed legislation designed to attain 'safe yield,' which is defined as a balance between ground-water withdrawals and annual recharge of aquifers. To monitor progress in complying with the legislation, ground-water withdrawals are measured and estimated, and annual recharge is estimated. The Tucson Basin and Avra Valley are two ground-water basins that form the Tucson Active Management Area (TAMA), which by State statute must attain 'safe yield' by the year 2025.

  7. Response of the Antarctic Stratosphere to Warm Pool EI Nino Events in the GEOS CCM

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Song, In-Sun; Oman, Luke D.; Newman, Paul A.; Molod, Andrea M.; Frith, Stacey M.; Nielsen, J. Eric

    2011-01-01

    A new type of EI Nino event has been identified in the last decade. During "warm pool" EI Nino (WPEN) events, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central equatorial Pacific are warmer than average. The EI Nino signal propagates poleward and upward as large-scale atmospheric waves, causing unusual weather patterns and warming the polar stratosphere. In austral summer, observations show that the Antarctic lower stratosphere is several degrees (K) warmer during WPEN events than during the neutral phase of EI Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Furthermore, the stratospheric response to WPEN events depends of the direction of tropical stratospheric winds: the Antarctic warming is largest when WPEN events are coincident with westward winds in the tropical lower and middle stratosphere i.e., the westward phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Westward winds are associated with enhanced convection in the subtropics, and with increased poleward wave activity. In this paper, a new formulation of the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model, Version 2 (GEOS V2 CCM) is used to substantiate the observed stratospheric response to WPEN events. One simulation is driven by SSTs typical of a WPEN event, while another simulation is driven by ENSO neutral SSTs; both represent a present-day climate. Differences between the two simulations can be directly attributed to the anomalous WPEN SSTs. During WPEN events, relative to ENSO neutral, the model simulates the observed increase in poleward planetary wave activity in the South Pacific during austral spring, as well as the relative warming of the Antarctic lower stratosphere in austral summer. However, the modeled response to WPEN does not depend on the phase of the QBO. The modeled tropical wind oscillation does not extend far enough into the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere, likely explaining the model's insensitivity to the phase of the QBO during WPEN events.

  8. Greenhouse warming, decadal variability, or El Nino? An attempt to understand the anomalous 1990s

    SciTech Connect

    Latif, M.; Eckert, C.; Kleeman, R.

    1997-09-01

    The dominant variability modes in the Tropics are investigated and contrasted with the anomalous situation observed during the last few years. The prime quantity analyzed is anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) in the region 30{degrees}S-60{degrees}N. Additionally, observed tropical surface wind stress fields were investigated. Further tropical atmospheric information was derived from a multidecadal run with an atmospheric general circulation model that was forced by the same SSTs. The tropical SST variability can be characterized by three modes: an interannual mode [the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)], a decadal mode, and a trend or unresolved ultra-low-frequency variability. 48 refs., 20 figs.

  9. Geoarchaeological evidence from Peru for a 5000 years B.P. onset of El Nino

    SciTech Connect

    Sandweiss, D.H.; Richardson, J.B. III; Rollins, H.B.

    1996-09-13

    For the tropical west coast of South America, where El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is most pronounced, archaeological and associated paleontological deposits in northern Peru revealed a major climate change at about 5000 years before the present (yr B.P.). The data implied the presence of stable, warm tropical water as far south as 10{degrees}S during the early mid-Holocene (about 8000 to 5000 yr B.P.). These data suggest that ENSO did not occur for some millennia preceding 5000 yr B.P., when global and regional climate was warmer than today. 36 refs., 1 fig., 3 tabs.

  10. Predicting total organic carbon load with El Nino southern oscillation phase using hybrid and fuzzy logic approaches

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    During drinking water treatment chlorine reacts with total organic carbon (TOC) to form disinfection byproducts (DBP), some of which can be carcinogenic. Additional treatment required to remove TOC before chlorination significantly increases treatment cost. There are two main sources of TOC in a wat...

  11. Interannual variability of the coupled tropical Pacific ocean - atmosphere system associated with the El Nino-southern oscillation

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, Rong-Hua; Levitus, S.

    1997-06-01

    Upper-ocean temperature and surface marine meteorological observations are used to examine interannual variability of the coupled tropical Pacific climate system. The basinwide structure and evolution of meteorological and oceanographic fields associated with ENSO events are described using composites, empirical orthogonal functions, and a lagged correlation analysis. The analyses reveal well-defined spatial structures and coherent phase relations among various anomaly fields.

  12. Role of intraseasonal oscillation in asymmetric impacts of El Niño and La Niña on the rainfall over southern China in boreal winter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Renhe; Li, Tianran; Wen, Min; Liu, Liangke

    2015-08-01

    The impacts of El Niño and La Niña on the rainfall over southern China in winter half year (November-April) are investigated diagnostically. It is found that positive rainfall anomalies with statistical significance appear over southern China in El Niño winter but no reversed significant rainfall anomalies in La Niña winter. The asymmetry of the rainfall anomalies are related with the asymmetry in anomalous circulation over western North Pacific (WNP) in lower troposphere, with a strong anomalous anticyclone in El Niño winter but a weak anomalous cyclone in La Niña winter. It is revealed that the asymmetric responses in anomalous circulation to El Nino and La Niña are affected by the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO). In El Niño winter the interannual variation is dominant and the ISO is weak, and the strong interannual variation leads to a strong response of the anomalous anticyclone over WNP in winter half year. However, in La Niña winter the ISO is dominant and the interannual variation is weak, and the weak interannual variation results in a weak response of the anomalous cyclone over WNP.

  13. Sulfate aerosol distributions and cloud variations during El Nino anomalies

    SciTech Connect

    Parungo, F. ); Hicks, B. )

    1993-02-20

    The effects of aerosols on cloud characteristics, albedo, rainfall amount, and overall climate changes were investigated by assessing the qualitative associations and quantitative correlations between the relevant variables during El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) perturbations. Both historical records and data from recent field measurements for the Pacific Ocean region were used for the investigation. The results show that ENSO perturbations could change sulfate aerosol production and distribution over the surveyed regions. Strong correlations were observed between condensation nucleus concentrations and sulfate aerosol concentrations, and between cloud amount and albedo. Weak but significant correlations were also observed between condensation nucleus concentrations and cloud amounts, and between sulfate aerosol concentrations and rainfall amounts. Although sulfate aerosols appeared to have a strong impact on cloud microphysics, the present data confirm that cloud dynamics play the pivotal role in control of cloud types and cloud amount in the studied regions. 31 refs., 5 figs., 3 tabs.

  14. El-Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences on monthly NO 3 load and concentration, stream flow and precipitation in the Little River Watershed, Tifton, Georgia (GA)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keener, V. W.; Feyereisen, G. W.; Lall, U.; Jones, J. W.; Bosch, D. D.; Lowrance, R.

    2010-02-01

    SummaryAs climate variability increases, it is becoming increasingly critical to find predictable patterns that can still be identified despite overall uncertainty. The El-Niño/Southern Oscillation is the best known pattern. Its global effects on weather, hydrology, ecology and human health have been well documented. Climate variability manifested through ENSO has strong effects in the southeast United States, seen in precipitation and stream flow data. However, climate variability may also affect water quality in nutrient concentrations and loads, and have impacts on ecosystems, health, and food availability in the southeast. In this research, we establish a teleconnection between ENSO and the Little River Watershed (LRW), GA., as seen in a shared 3-7 year mode of variability for precipitation, stream flow, and nutrient load time series. Univariate wavelet analysis of the NINO 3.4 index of sea surface temperature (SST) and of precipitation, stream flow, NO 3 concentration and load time series from the watershed was used to identify common signals. Shared 3-7 year modes of variability were seen in all variables, most strongly in precipitation, stream flow and nutrient load in strong El Niño years. The significance of shared 3-7 year periodicity over red noise with 95% confidence in SST and precipitation, stream flow, and NO 3 load time series was confirmed through cross-wavelet and wavelet-coherence transforms, in which common high power and co-variance were computed for each set of data. The strongest 3-7 year shared power was seen in SST and stream flow data, while the strongest co-variance was seen in SST and NO 3 load data. The strongest cross-correlation was seen as a positive value between the NINO 3.4 and NO 3 load with a three-month lag. The teleconnection seen in the LRW between the NINO 3.4 index and precipitation, stream flow, and NO 3 load can be utilized in a model to predict monthly nutrient loads based on short-term climate variability

  15. The Southern Oscillation, Hypoxia, and the Eastern Pacific Tuna Fishery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Webster, D.; Kiefer, D.; Lam, C. H.; Harrison, D. P.; Armstrong, E. M.; Hinton, M.; Luo, L.

    2012-12-01

    The Eastern Pacific tuna fishery, which is one of the world's major fisheries, covers thousands of square kilometers. The vessels of this fishery are registered in more than 30 nations and largely target bigeye (Thunnus obesus), skipjack (Katsuwonus pelamis), and yellowfin (T. albacores) tuna. In both the Pelagic Habitat Analysis Module project, which is sponsored by NASA, and the Fishscape project, which is sponsored by NSF, we have attempted to define the habitat of the three species by matching a 50 year time series on fish catch and effort with oceanographic information obtained from satellite imagery and from a global circulation model. The fishery time series, which was provided by the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission, provided spatial maps of catch and effort at monthly time steps; the satellite imagery of the region consisted of sea surface temperature, chlorophyll, and height from GHRSST, SEAWiFS, and AVISO products, and the modeled flow field at selected depths was output from ECCO-92 simulations from 1992 to present. All information was integrated and analyzed within the EASy marine geographic information system. This GIS will also provides a home for the Fishscape spatial simulation model of the coupled dynamics of the ocean, fish, fleets, and markets. This model will then be applied to an assessment of the potential ecological and economic impacts of climate change, technological advances in fleet operations, and increases in fuel costs. We have determined by application of EOF analysis that the ECCO-2 simulation of sea surface height fits well with that of AVISO imagery; thus, if driven properly by predictions of future air-sea exchange, the model should provide good estimates of circulation patterns. We have also found that strong El Nino events lead to strong recruitment of all three species and strong La Nina events lead to weak recruitment. Finally, we have found that the general spatial distribution of the Eastern Pacific fishing grounds

  16. Forecast EL NIÑO–Southern oscillation phases and best irrigation strategies to increase cotton yield

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures cause a systematic El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) coupling with the atmosphere to produce predictable weather patterns in much of North America. Forecast ENSO phases and associated rainfall frequency and amount were related to modeled dual purpose whe...

  17. Absence of determinism in El Niño Southern Oscillation.

    PubMed

    Binder, P-M; Wilches, Camilo A

    2002-05-01

    We perform two direct determinism tests on the El Niño Southern Oscillation index monthly average series. The results indicate that, for timescales over 1 month, the series does not exhibit determinism, an essential feature of chaos. PMID:12059634

  18. Antarctic warming driven by internal Southern Ocean deep convection oscillations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martin, Torge; Pedro, Joel B.; Steig, Eric J.; Jochum, Markus; Park, Wonsun; Rasmussen, Sune O.

    2016-04-01

    Simulations with the free-running, complex coupled Kiel Climate Model (KCM) show that heat release associated with recurring Southern Ocean deep convection can drive centennial-scale Antarctic temperature variations of 0.5-2.0 °C. We propose a mechanism connecting the intrinsic ocean variability with Antarctic warming that involves the following three steps: Preconditioning: heat supplied by the lower branch of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) accumulates at depth in the Southern Ocean, trapped by the Weddell Gyre circulation; Convection onset: wind and/or sea-ice changes tip the preconditioned, thermally unstable system into the convective state; Antarctic warming: fast sea-ice-albedo feedbacks (on annual to decadal timescales) and slower Southern Ocean frontal and sea-surface temperature adjustments to the convective heat release (on multi-decadal to centennial timescales), drive an increase in atmospheric heat and moisture transport towards Antarctica resulting in warming over the continent. Further, we discuss the potential role of this mechanism to explain climate variability observed in Antarctic ice-core records.

  19. On the statistics of El Nino occurrences and the relationship of El Nino to volcanic and solar/geomagnetic activity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    1989-01-01

    El Nino is conventionally defined as an anomalous and persistent warming of the waters off the coasts of Ecuador and Peru in the eastern equatorial Pacific, having onset usually in Southern Hemispheric summer/fall. Some of the statistical aspects of El Nino occurrences are examined, especially as they relate to the normal distribution and to possible associations with volcanic, solar, and geomagnetic activity. With regard to the very strong El Nino of 1982 to 1983, it is noted that, although it may very well be related to the 1982 eruptions of El Chichon, the event occurred essentially on time (with respect to the past behavior of elapsed times between successive El Nino events; a moderate-to-stronger El Nino was expected during the interval 1978 to 1982, assuming that El Nino occurrences are normally distributed, having a mean elapsed time between successive onsets of 4 years and a standard deviation of 2 years and a last known occurrence in 1976). Also, although not widely recognized, the whole of 1982 was a record year for geomagnetic activity (based on the aa geomagnetic index, with the aa index registering an all time high in February 1982), perhaps, important for determining a possible trigger for this and other El Nino events. A major feature is an extensive bibliography (325 entries) on El Nino and volcanic-solar-geomagnetic effects on climate. Also, included is a tabular listing of the 94 major volcanic eruptions of 1835 to 1986.

  20. Prediction, Assessment of the Rift Valley fever Activity in East and Southern Africa 2006 - 2008 and Possible Vector Control Strategies

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Historical outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) since the early 1950s have been associated with cyclical patterns of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon which results in elevated and widespread rainfall over the RVF endemic areas of Africa. Using satellite measurements of global and ...

  1. Late Pleistocene oscillations of the Drau Glacier (southern Austria)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karnitschar, Christina; Reitner, Jürgen; Draganits, Erich

    2016-04-01

    The Drau Glacier was the largest Pleistocene glacier in the southeastern part of the Alps and significantly shaped the landscape in this region. The study area is located at the termination of the Drau Glacier in the southern part of Austria (Carinthia). The investigation aims to decipher glacial dynamics during the Late Pleistocene glacial advance, stabilisation and final recession of this glacier based on geological/geomorphological mapping, interpretation of airborne laser scan (ALS) topographic data and lithostratigraphic investigations of glacial and periglacial sediments. Special emphasis is laid on the reconstruction of the maximum extent of the glaciation (LGM). Based on previous mapping by Bobek (1959) and Ucik (1996-1998) more details have been gained for the paleogeographic reconstruction based on glacial and non-glacial erosion and accumulation features. These include traces of pre-Upper Pleistocene glaciation, drumlins, terminal moraines and kettle holes. Paleogeographic reconstruction was done with correlation of different outcrops based on lithostratigraphy and ALS topography. Sequences of gravel related to glacial advance covered by till, followed by periglacial sediments allowed detailed reconstruction of the glacial sequence in this area and the complex succession of various extents of the Drau Glacier. References Bobek, Hans. 1959: Der Eisrückgang im östlichen Klagenfurter Becken. In: Mitteilungen der österreichischen geographischen Gesellschaft, Wien. Ucik, Friedrich Hans. 1996: Bericht über geologische Aufnahmen im Quartär auf Blatt 204 Völkermarkt, Jb. Geol. B.-A., 141, S. 340, Wien. Ucik, Friedrich Hans. 1997: Bericht über geologische Aufnahmen im Quartär auf Blatt 204 Völkermarkt, Jb. Geol. B.-A., 141, S. 325-326, Wien. Ucik, Friedrich Hans. 1998: Bericht über geologische Aufnahmen im Quartär auf Blatt 204 Völkermarkt, Jb. Geol. B.-A., 142, S. 333-334, Wien.

  2. Recent variability in the southern oscillation: isotopic results from a tarawa atoll coral.

    PubMed

    Cole, J E; Fairbanks, R G; Shen, G T

    1993-06-18

    In the western tropical Pacific, the interannual migration of the Indonesian Low convective system causes changes in rainfall that dominate the regional signature of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system. A 96-year oxygen isotope record from a Tarawa Atoll coral (1 degrees N, 172 degrees E) reflects regional convective activity through rainfall-induced salinity changes. This monthly resolution record spans twice the length of the local climatological record and provides a history of ENSO variability comparable in quality with those derived from instrumental climate data. Comparison of this coral record with a historical chronology of EI Niño events indicates that climate anomalies in coastal South America are occasionally decoupled from Pacific-wide ENSO extremes. Spectral analysis suggests that the distribution of variance in this record has shifted among annual to interannual periods during the present century, concurrent with observed changes in the strength of the Southern Oscillation. PMID:17793658

  3. Effect of El-Nino on Southwest Monsoon 2015

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    K. U., Vidhulakshmi; Mrudula, G.

    2016-05-01

    Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) of 2015 showed a deficit of 14% in the seasonal rainfall. Many researchers connected this deficit to the El-Nino which developed in late May. In this study an analysis of major ENSO events and its influence on ISMR during the period 1975 till present have been carried out. The behavior of ISMR during the previous El-Nino/La-Nina years has been compared with that of 2015. Preliminary analysis shows the effects of El-Nino on ISMR of 2015 started mainly from July. This is attributed to Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) by many scientists. Analysis of spatial and temporal correlations of SST of various Nino regions with the ISMR and of MJO will also be presented in detail.

  4. Effects of 1997-1998 El Nino on Tropospheric Ozone and Water Vapor

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chandra, S.; Ziemke, J. R.; Min, W.; Read, W. G.

    1998-01-01

    This paper analyzes the impact of the 1997-1998 El Nino on tropospheric column ozone and tropospheric water vapor derived respectively from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) on Earth Probe and the Microwave Limb Scanning instrument on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite. The 1997-1998 El Nino, characterized by an anomalous increase in sea-surface temperature (SST) across the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean, is one of the strongest El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events of the century, comparable in magnitude to the 1982-1983 episode. The major impact of the SST change has been the shift in the convection pattern from the western to the eastern Pacific affecting the response of rain-producing cumulonimbus. As a result, there has been a significant increase in rainfall over the eastern Pacific and a decrease over the western Pacific and Indonesia. The dryness in the Indonesian region has contributed to large-scale burning by uncontrolled wildfires in the tropical rainforests of Sumatra and Borneo. Our study shows that tropospheric column ozone decreased by 4-8 Dobson units (DU) in the eastern Pacific and increased by about 10-20 DU in the western Pacific largely as a result of the eastward shift of the tropical convective activity as inferred from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data. The effect of this shift is also evident in the upper tropospheric water vapor mixing ratio which varies inversely as ozone (O3). These conclusions are qualitatively consistent with the changes in atmospheric circulation derived from zonal and vertical wind data obtained from the Goddard Earth Observing System data assimilation analyses. The changes in tropospheric column O3 during the course of the 1997-1998 El Nino appear to be caused by a combination of large-scale circulation processes associated with the shift in the tropical convection pattern and surface/boundary layer processes associated with

  5. Precursory signals of the major El Niño Southern Oscillation events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Varotsos, C. A.; Tzanis, C.; Cracknell, A. P.

    2016-05-01

    An exploration of the temporal evolution of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from January 1876 to November 2011 by means of a new time domain called natural time reveals that the major ENSO extremes provide precursory signals that are maximized in a time window of almost 2 years. This finding may be used to improve the accuracy of the short-term prediction models of the ENSO extremes, thus enabling steps to be taken to ameliorate its disastrous impacts.

  6. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and dysentery in Shandong province, China.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Ying; Bi, Peng; Wang, Guoyong; Hiller, Janet E

    2007-01-01

    To investigate the impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on dysentery transmission, the relationship between monthly dysentery cases in Shandong Province of China and the monthly Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a broad index of ENSO, was examined over the period 1991-2003. Spearman correlations and generalized linear models were calculated to detect the association between the SOI and dysentery cases. Data from 1991 to 2001 were used to estimate the parameters, while data from 2002 to 2003 were used to test the forecasting ability of the model. After controlling for seasonality, autocorrelation, and a time-lagged effect, the results indicate that there was a significant negative association between the number of dysentery cases and the SOI, with a lagged effect of 2 months. A one-standard-deviation decrease in the SOI might cause up to 207 more dysentery cases per month in Shandong Province. This is the first report of the impact of the Southern Oscillation on dysentery risk in China, indicating that the SOI may be a useful early indicator of potential dysentery risk in Shandong Province. PMID:16690051

  7. O the Interannual Variability of the Indian Monsoon and the Southern Oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Ming Chin

    The mechanisms of the interannual variability of the Indian monsoon and the Southern Oscillation are investigated from observations in the Indian Ocean sector. On this diagnostic basis, a statistical forecasting scheme is developed for all-India rainfall anomalies. A good summer monsoon is characterized by the following aspects. (1) Arabian Sea: higher sea surface temperature (SST) in the pre-monsoon season but lower SST in the monsoon and post -monsoon seasons, lower sea level pressure (SLP) throughout the year, strong surface wind and more cloudiness from the pre-monsoon through the post-monsoon seasons; (2) Indian subcontinent: higher surface temperature in the pre-monsoon season but lower surface temperature afterward, decreased lower-tropospheric constant pressure topographies and higher in the North but lower in the South upper-tropospheric topographies, stronger lower-tropospheric inflow from the South and upper-tropospheric outflow toward the South, and more northward position of the upper-air ridge; and (3) Tibetan Plateau: a warm and dry concurrent summer and a warm and wet preceding winter. An early monsoon onset is heralded by oceanic -atmospheric conditions around the Indian subcontinent similar to those for a good monsoon year. However, conditions immediately following an early monsoon onset are characterized in the Arabian Sea by high SST, strong surface wind, less cloudiness, and high SLP, and in India by an anomalously cold and then warm surface environment. A cool equatorial Pacific Ocean episode of the southern Oscillation is characterized in the Indian Ocean by higher SST in the antecedent seasons but lower SST in the concurrent and following seasons, lower SLP from the preceding throughout the following seasons, stronger surface wind in the western part of the ocean but weaker surface wind in the eastern part during the summer, and more cloudiness. Both large positive values of the Southern Oscillation index and its tendency foreshadow a good

  8. On the Cause of Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean T-S Variations Associated with El Nino

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, Ou; Fukumori, Ichiro; Lee, Tong; Cheng, Benny

    2004-01-01

    The nature of observed variations in temperature-salinity (T-S) relationship between El Nino and non-El Nino years in the pycnocline of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (NINO3 region, 5(deg)S-5(deg)N, 150(deg)W-90(deg)W) is investigated using an ocean general circulation model. The origin of the subject water mass is identified using the adjoint of a simulated passive tracer. The higher salinity during El Nino is attributed to larger convergence of saltier water from the Southern Hemisphere and smaller convergence of fresher water from the Northern Hemisphere.

  9. Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon intensified by mega-El Niño/southern oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Bin; Liu, Jian; Kim, Hyung-Jin; Webster, Peter J.; Yim, So-Young; Xiang, Baoqiang

    2013-01-01

    Prediction of monsoon changes in the coming decades is important for infrastructure planning and sustainable economic development. The decadal prediction involves both natural decadal variability and anthropogenic forcing. Hitherto, the causes of the decadal variability of Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon (NHSM) are largely unknown because the monsoons over Asia, West Africa, and North America have been studied primarily on a regional basis, which is unable to identify coherent decadal changes and the overriding controls on planetary scales. Here, we show that, during the recent global warming of about 0.4 °C since the late 1970s, a coherent decadal change of precipitation and circulation emerges in the entirety of the NHSM system. Surprisingly, the NHSM as well as the Hadley and Walker circulations have all shown substantial intensification, with a striking increase of NHSM rainfall by 9.5% per degree of global warming. This is unexpected from recent theoretical prediction and model projections of the 21st century. The intensification is primarily attributed to a mega-El Niño/Southern Oscillation (a leading mode of interannual-to-interdecadal variation of global sea surface temperature) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and further influenced by hemispherical asymmetric global warming. These factors driving the present changes of the NHSM system are instrumental for understanding and predicting future decadal changes and determining the proportions of climate change that are attributable to anthropogenic effects and long-term internal variability in the complex climate system. PMID:23509281

  10. Coherent Modes of Global SST and Summer Rainfall over China: An Assessment of the Regional Impacts of the 1997-98 El Nino/ La Nina

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, K.-M.; Weng, Hengyi

    1999-01-01

    In this paper, we have identified three principal modes of summertime rainfall variability over China and global sea surface temperature (SST) for the period 1955-1998. Using these modes, we have assessed the impact of the El Nino/La Nina on major drought and flood occurrence over China during 1997-1998. The first mode can be identified with the growth phase of El Nino superimposed on a linear warming trend since the mid-1950s. This mode strongly influences rainfall over northern China. The second mode comprises of a quasi-biennial tendency manifested in alternate wet and dry years over the Yangtze River Valley (YRV) of central China. The third mode is dominated by a quasi-decadal oscillation in eastern China between the Yangtze River and the Yellow River. Using a mode-by-mode reconstruction, we evaluate the impacts of the various principal modes on the 1997 and 1998 observed rainfall anomaly. We find that the severe drought in northern China, and to a lesser degree the flood in southern China, in 1997 is likely a result of the influence of anomalous SST forcing during the growth phase of the El Nino. In addition, rainfall in southern China may be influenced by the decadal or long-term SST variability. The severe flood over the Yangtze River Valley in 1998 is associated with the biennial tendency of basin scale SST during the transition from El Nino to La Nina in 1997-98. Additionally, the observed prolonged drought over northern China and increasing flooding over the YRV since the 1950s may be associated with a long-term warming trend in the tropical Indian and western Pacific ocean. During 1997, the El Nino SST exacerbated the drought situation over northern China. In 1998, the drought appeared to get temporary relief from the La Nina anomalous SST forcing.

  11. Long-term stationarity of El Niño-Southern Oscillation teleconnections in southeastern Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ashcroft, Linden; Gergis, Joëlle; Karoly, David John

    2016-05-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon plays a large role in the modulation of Australian rainfall, particularly in the highly populated southeast. However, this influence is not stationary over time: weak ENSO teleconnections in Australia have been identified during 1920-1950, and palaeoclimate reconstructions indicate that a breakdown in global ENSO teleconnections may have also occurred in the early to mid-1800s. A lack of long-term instrumental data has prevented detailed examination of this intriguing earlier period. This study uses newly recovered instrumental rainfall observations to determine whether the weakening of ENSO teleconnections in the nineteenth century is apparent in eastern and southern southeastern Australia (SEA). Quantitative rainfall and rainday data from 1788 to 2012 are compared with three ENSO indices derived from palaeoclimate data. Statistical analysis suggests a weakening of the relationship between ENSO and SEA rainfall in the early nineteenth century data (~1835-1850), supporting results reported in previous global and regional studies based on palaeoclimate and documentary rainfall reconstructions. Possible causes of this weakening in teleconnection strength are then explored by examining a range of Southern Hemisphere circulation indices. The 1835-1850 period of low ENSO-SEA rainfall correlations appears to be characterised by a combination of reduced La Niña events and ENSO variance associated with a positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, with the possible influence of a predominately negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode. However, current temporal and geographical data limitations prevent definitive conclusions from being drawn. Despite these caveats, this study illustrates the considerable value of historical instrumental climate data in assessing long-term variations in climate mode teleconnections, particularly in the data-poor Southern Hemisphere.

  12. Correlation between solar activity and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mumtahana, Farahhati; Sulistiani, Santi; Kesumaningrum, Rasdewita

    2015-09-01

    ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) is an oceanic anomaly and atmospheric phenomenon in equatorial pacific indicated by Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). It describes the air pressure between Darwin (Australia) and Tahiti (Southern Pacific Ocean). ENSO occurs at irregular interval between 3 and 7 years causing global climate system variation. Considering this event occurs periodically, it might be triggered by the 11-years of solar cycle as an energy source. In this case, the solar activity is represented by the variability of the periodical Sunspot number (R). Changes in the rate of heating and the amount of solar energy package is presumed to be the cause of the ENSO phenomenon. In this work, we use the data of Sunspot number (R) and SOI from 1870 to 2013. Derived from those data, spectral analysis of the output energy package is analyzed by using WWZ (Weighted Wavelet Z-Transform). Then we correlate with the periodicity and condition of ENSO phenomenon to obtain the prediction of occurrence interval.

  13. Assessing the persistence of millennial-scale oscillations during the penultimate glacial phase in southern Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilson, Graham; Frogley, Mick; Jones, Tim; Leng, Melanie

    2016-04-01

    There is growing evidence that millennial-scale climate oscillations are a pervasive feature of glacial intervals. During the last glaciation (Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 2-4), incursions of cold water into the North Atlantic appeared to coincide with abrupt reductions in southern European tree populations (Tzedakis et al., 2004: Geology 32, 109-112), suggesting down-stream impacts on continental temperature and hydroclimate. Ice-rafting into the North Atlantic during the penultimate glacial (MIS 6) is thought to be less extensive than at times during MIS 2-4, perhaps resulting in more subdued climate oscillations. Published pollen data from Lake Ioannina core I-284 (Epirus, NW Greece) suggest pronounced oscillations in tree population extent during early MIS 6 (185-155 ka), followed by much-reduced tree populations and subdued oscillations throughout late MIS 6 (155-135 ka) (Roucoux et al., 2011: Journal of Quaternary Science 26, 616-626). Previous studies of the diatom and isotope records from the MIS 7/6, 6/5e and 2/1 transitions, and from MIS 5e and 1 in Lake Ioannina core I-284 demonstrate the sensitivity of these proxies to changes in regional climate. Here we apply a combined diatom and stable isotope (carbon and oxygen) approach to evaluate the influence of millennial-scale oscillations on southern Europe hydroclimate during MIS 6. The new isotope data from Lake Ioannina core I-284 demonstrates higher precipitation / evaporation (P/E) ratios between c. 178 and 164 ka, associated with peak insolation during MIS 6e, and episodes of planktonic diatom expansion likely reflecting the interstadials of the 6e complex. Close correspondence between diatom planktonic frequencies, arboreal pollen and regional sea-surface temperatures together provide strong evidence for millennial-scale oscillations in regional precipitation at times during the early‒mid MIS 6. The isotope data suggest overall cooler and drier conditions during the mid-late MIS 6, consistent with

  14. ENSO and disaster: droughts, floods and El Niño/Southern Oscillation warm events.

    PubMed

    Dilley, M; Heyman, B N

    1995-09-01

    The connection between El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and precipitation and temperature variability worldwide is increasingly well understood. ENSO has been linked to droughts and flooding in some regions. This paper uses the disaster history database of the U.S. Agency for International Development's Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance to examine the link between ENSO events and droughts or floods of sufficient magnitude to trigger international disasters. Worldwide, disasters triggered by droughts are twice as frequent during year two of ENSO warm events than during other years. No such relationship is apparent in the case of flood disasters. Drought disasters occur during year two of ENSO warm events significantly more frequently than in other years in Southern Africa and Southeast Asia. No regional pattern emerges from a comparable analysis of flood disasters. Those places likely to be affected by ENSO-triggered droughts can take proactive measures to mitigate the impacts. PMID:7552108

  15. Influence of southern oscillation on autumn rainfall in Iran (1951-2011)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roghani, Rabbaneh; Soltani, Saeid; Bashari, Hossein

    2016-04-01

    This study aimed to investigate the relationships between southern oscillation and autumn (October-December) rainfall in Iran. It also sought to identify the possible physical mechanisms involved in the mentioned relationships by analyzing observational atmospheric data. Analyses were based on monthly rainfall data from 50 synoptic stations with at least 35 years of records up to the end of 2011. Autumn rainfall time series were grouped by the average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and SOI phase methods. Significant differences between rainfall groups in each method were assessed by Kruskal-Wallis and Kolmogorov-Smirnov non-parametric tests. Their relationships were also validated using the linear error in probability space (LEPS) test. The results showed that average SOI and SOI phases during July-September were related with autumn rainfall in some regions located in the west and northwest of Iran, west coasts of the Caspian Sea and southern Alborz Mountains. The El Niño (negative) and La Niña (positive) phases were associated with increased and decreased autumn rainfall, respectively. Our findings also demonstrated the persistence of Southern Pacific Ocean's pressure signals on autumn rainfall in Iran. Geopotential height patterns were totally different in the selected El Niño and La Niña years over Iran. During the El Niño years, a cyclone was formed over the north of Iran and an anticyclone existed over the Mediterranean Sea. During La Niña years, the cyclone shifted towards the Mediterranean Sea and an anticyclone developed over Iran. While these El Niño conditions increased autumn rainfall in Iran, the opposite conditions during the La Niña phase decreased rainfall in the country. In conclusion, development of rainfall prediction models based on the SOI can facilitate agricultural and water resources management in Iran.

  16. Coastal vulnerability across the Pacific dominated by El Niño-Southern Oscillation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Barnard, Patrick L.; Short, Andrew D.; Harley, Mitchell D.; Splinter, Kristen D.; Vitousek, Sean; Turner, Ian L.; Allan, Jonathan; Banno, Masayuki; Bryan, Karin R.; Doria, André; Hansen, Jeff E.; Kato, Shigeru; Kuriyama, Yoshiaki; Randall-Goodwin, Evan; Ruggiero, Peter; Walker, Ian J.; Heathfield, Derek K.

    2015-01-01

    To predict future coastal hazards, it is important to quantify any links between climate drivers and spatial patterns of coastal change. However, most studies of future coastal vulnerability do not account for the dynamic components of coastal water levels during storms, notably wave-driven processes, storm surges and seasonal water level anomalies, although these components can add metres to water levels during extreme events. Here we synthesize multi-decadal, co-located data assimilated between 1979 and 2012 that describe wave climate, local water levels and coastal change for 48 beaches throughout the Pacific Ocean basin. We find that observed coastal erosion across the Pacific varies most closely with El Niño/Southern Oscillation, with a smaller influence from the Southern Annular Mode and the Pacific North American pattern. In the northern and southern Pacific Ocean, regional wave and water level anomalies are significantly correlated to a suite of climate indices, particularly during boreal winter; conditions in the northeast Pacific Ocean are often opposite to those in the western and southern Pacific. We conclude that, if projections for an increasing frequency of extreme El Niño and La Niña events over the twenty-first century are confirmed, then populated regions on opposite sides of the Pacific Ocean basin could be alternately exposed to extreme coastal erosion and flooding, independent of sea-level rise.

  17. Coastal vulnerability across the Pacific dominated by El Niño/Southern Oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barnard, Patrick L.; Short, Andrew D.; Harley, Mitchell D.; Splinter, Kristen D.; Vitousek, Sean; Turner, Ian L.; Allan, Jonathan; Banno, Masayuki; Bryan, Karin R.; Doria, André; Hansen, Jeff E.; Kato, Shigeru; Kuriyama, Yoshiaki; Randall-Goodwin, Evan; Ruggiero, Peter; Walker, Ian J.; Heathfield, Derek K.

    2015-10-01

    To predict future coastal hazards, it is important to quantify any links between climate drivers and spatial patterns of coastal change. However, most studies of future coastal vulnerability do not account for the dynamic components of coastal water levels during storms, notably wave-driven processes, storm surges and seasonal water level anomalies, although these components can add metres to water levels during extreme events. Here we synthesize multi-decadal, co-located data assimilated between 1979 and 2012 that describe wave climate, local water levels and coastal change for 48 beaches throughout the Pacific Ocean basin. We find that observed coastal erosion across the Pacific varies most closely with El Niño/Southern Oscillation, with a smaller influence from the Southern Annular Mode and the Pacific North American pattern. In the northern and southern Pacific Ocean, regional wave and water level anomalies are significantly correlated to a suite of climate indices, particularly during boreal winter; conditions in the northeast Pacific Ocean are often opposite to those in the western and southern Pacific. We conclude that, if projections for an increasing frequency of extreme El Niño and La Niña events over the twenty-first century are confirmed, then populated regions on opposite sides of the Pacific Ocean basin could be alternately exposed to extreme coastal erosion and flooding, independent of sea-level rise.

  18. The effect of El Niño - Southern Oscillation events on CO2 and H2O fluxes in a mountainous tropical rainforest in equatorial Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olchev, Alexander; Ibrom, Andreas; Panferov, Oleg; Gushchina, Darija; Kreilein, Heinrich; Popov, Victor; Propastin, Pavel; June, Tania; Rauf, Abdul; Gravenhorst, Gode; Knohl, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    The possible impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on the main components of CO2 and H2O fluxes between the tropical rainforest and the atmosphere was investigated. The fluxes were continuously measured in an old-growth mountainous tropical rainforest in Central Sulawesi in Indonesia (1°39.47'S and 120°10.409'E) using the eddy covariance method for the period from January 2004 to June 2008 (Ibrom et al. 2007). During the period of measurements two episodes of El Niño and one episode of La Niña were observed. All these ENSO episodes had moderate intensity and were of the central Pacific type. To quantify the ENSO impacts on meteorological parameters and fluxes and to distinguish them from effects caused by the seasonal migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) we analyzed the correlation between the deviations of monthly meteorological parameter and flux values from their monthly averages over the entire measuring period and the Nino4 and Nino3.4 indexes. The typical timescale of the full ENSO cycle is estimated to be about 48-52 months (Setoh et al., 1999), whereas the timescale of the main meteorological parameters (global solar radiation (G), precipitation amount (P), air temperature (T)) is characterized by much higher month-to-month variability even after annual trend filtering. In order to filter the high-frequency oscillation in the time series of atmospheric characteristics and monthly Net Ecosystem Exchange of CO2 (NEE), Gross Primary Production (GPP), Ecosystem Respiration (RE) and evapotranspiration (ET) anomalies, the simple centered moving average smoothing procedure was applied. The moving averages of variables were calculated over 7 months (centered value ± 3 months). Statistical analysis included both simple correlation and cross-correlation analysis. Analysis of the temporal variability of CO2 and H2O fluxes showed a high sensitivity of monthly GPP and ET of the mountainous tropical rainforest to ENSO intensity

  19. The effect of El Niño - Southern Oscillation events on CO2 and H2O fluxes in a mountainous tropical rainforest in equatorial Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olchev, Alexander; Ibrom, Andreas; Panferov, Oleg; Gushchina, Darija; Kreilein, Heinrich; Popov, Victor; Propastin, Pavel; June, Tania; Rauf, Abdul; Gravenhorst, Gode; Knohl, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    The possible impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on the main components of CO2 and H2O fluxes between the tropical rainforest and the atmosphere was investigated. The fluxes were continuously measured in an old-growth mountainous tropical rainforest in Central Sulawesi in Indonesia (1°39.47'S and 120°10.409'E) using the eddy covariance method for the period from January 2004 to June 2008 (Ibrom et al. 2007). During the period of measurements two episodes of El Niño and one episode of La Niña were observed. All these ENSO episodes had moderate intensity and were of the central Pacific type. To quantify the ENSO impacts on meteorological parameters and fluxes and to distinguish them from effects caused by the seasonal migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) we analyzed the correlation between the deviations of monthly meteorological parameter and flux values from their monthly averages over the entire measuring period and the Nino4 and Nino3.4 indexes. The typical timescale of the full ENSO cycle is estimated to be about 48-52 months (Setoh et al., 1999), whereas the timescale of the main meteorological parameters (global solar radiation (G), precipitation amount (P), air temperature (T)) is characterized by much higher month-to-month variability even after annual trend filtering. In order to filter the high-frequency oscillation in the time series of atmospheric characteristics and monthly Net Ecosystem Exchange of CO2 (NEE), Gross Primary Production (GPP), Ecosystem Respiration (RE) and evapotranspiration (ET) anomalies, the simple centered moving average smoothing procedure was applied. The moving averages of variables were calculated over 7 months (centered value ± 3 months). Statistical analysis included both simple correlation and cross-correlation analysis. Analysis of the temporal variability of CO2 and H2O fluxes showed a high sensitivity of monthly GPP and ET of the mountainous tropical rainforest to ENSO intensity

  20. El Niño-Southern Oscillation, local weather and occurrences of dengue virus serotypes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Xiaodong; Clements, Archie C. A.; Williams, Gail; Devine, Gregor; Tong, Shilu; Hu, Wenbiao

    2015-11-01

    Severe dengue fever is usually associated with secondary infection by a dengue virus (DENV) serotype (1 to 4) that is different to the serotype of the primary infection. Dengue outbreaks only occur following importations of DENV in Cairns, Australia. However, the majority of imported cases do not result in autochthonous transmission in Cairns. Although DENV transmission is strongly associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate cycle and local weather conditions, the frequency and potential risk factors of infections with the different DENV serotypes, including whether or not they differ, is unknown. This study used a classification tree model to identify the hierarchical interactions between Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), local weather factors, the presence of imported serotypes and the occurrence of the four autochthonous DENV serotypes from January 2000-December 2009 in Cairns. We found that the 12-week moving average of SOI and the 2-week moving average of maximum temperature were the most important factors influencing the variation in the weekly occurrence of the four DENV serotypes, the likelihoods of the occurrence of the four DENV serotypes may be unequal under the same environmental conditions, and occurrence may be influenced by changes in global and local environmental conditions in Cairns.

  1. El Niño-Southern Oscillation influence on tropospheric mercury concentrations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Slemr, Franz; Brenninkmeijer, Carl A.; Rauthe-Schöch, Armin; Weigelt, Andreas; Ebinghaus, Ralf; Brunke, Ernst-Günther; Martin, Lynwill; Spain, T. Gerard; O'Doherty, Simon

    2016-02-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects the tropospheric concentrations of many trace gases. Here we investigate the ENSO influence on mercury concentrations measured in the upper troposphere during Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the atmosphere Based on an Instrumented Container flights and at ground at Cape Point, South Africa, and Mace Head, Ireland. Mercury concentrations cross-correlate with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) with a lag of 8 ± 2 months. Highest mercury concentrations are always found at the most negative SOI values, i.e., 8 months after El Niño, and the amplitude of the interannual variations fluctuates between ~5 and 18%. The time lag is similar to that of CO whose interannual variations are driven largely by emissions from biomass burning (BB). The amplitude of the interannual variability of tropospheric mercury concentrations is consistent with the estimated variations in mercury emissions from BB. We thus conclude that BB is a major factor driving the interannual variation of tropospheric mercury concentrations.

  2. El Niño-Southern Oscillation, local weather and occurrences of dengue virus serotypes.

    PubMed

    Huang, Xiaodong; Clements, Archie C A; Williams, Gail; Devine, Gregor; Tong, Shilu; Hu, Wenbiao

    2015-01-01

    Severe dengue fever is usually associated with secondary infection by a dengue virus (DENV) serotype (1 to 4) that is different to the serotype of the primary infection. Dengue outbreaks only occur following importations of DENV in Cairns, Australia. However, the majority of imported cases do not result in autochthonous transmission in Cairns. Although DENV transmission is strongly associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate cycle and local weather conditions, the frequency and potential risk factors of infections with the different DENV serotypes, including whether or not they differ, is unknown. This study used a classification tree model to identify the hierarchical interactions between Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), local weather factors, the presence of imported serotypes and the occurrence of the four autochthonous DENV serotypes from January 2000-December 2009 in Cairns. We found that the 12-week moving average of SOI and the 2-week moving average of maximum temperature were the most important factors influencing the variation in the weekly occurrence of the four DENV serotypes, the likelihoods of the occurrence of the four DENV serotypes may be unequal under the same environmental conditions, and occurrence may be influenced by changes in global and local environmental conditions in Cairns. PMID:26581295

  3. El Niño-Southern Oscillation, local weather and occurrences of dengue virus serotypes

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Xiaodong; Clements, Archie C.A.; Williams, Gail; Devine, Gregor; Tong, Shilu; Hu, Wenbiao

    2015-01-01

    Severe dengue fever is usually associated with secondary infection by a dengue virus (DENV) serotype (1 to 4) that is different to the serotype of the primary infection. Dengue outbreaks only occur following importations of DENV in Cairns, Australia. However, the majority of imported cases do not result in autochthonous transmission in Cairns. Although DENV transmission is strongly associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate cycle and local weather conditions, the frequency and potential risk factors of infections with the different DENV serotypes, including whether or not they differ, is unknown. This study used a classification tree model to identify the hierarchical interactions between Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), local weather factors, the presence of imported serotypes and the occurrence of the four autochthonous DENV serotypes from January 2000–December 2009 in Cairns. We found that the 12-week moving average of SOI and the 2-week moving average of maximum temperature were the most important factors influencing the variation in the weekly occurrence of the four DENV serotypes, the likelihoods of the occurrence of the four DENV serotypes may be unequal under the same environmental conditions, and occurrence may be influenced by changes in global and local environmental conditions in Cairns. PMID:26581295

  4. Decadal changes in the Southern Hemisphere sea surface temperature in association with El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Southern Annular Mode

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yeo, Sae-Rim; Kim, Kwang-Yul

    2015-12-01

    The spatial structure of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), which are the two most important climate modes affecting sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), appear to have changed since 1999. The characteristic features of the ENSO- and SAM-related atmospheric and oceanic variability in the SH are compared between two sub-periods (1979-1998 and 1999-2012) using cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function analysis. During the earlier period of 1979-1998, the ENSO is characterized by conventional eastern Pacific type, in which the signals in the SH constitute the Pacific South America teleconnection pattern. In contrast, due to a shift of the active center of ENSO to the central Pacific in the later period (1999-2012), atmospheric circulation and SST variability over the SH significantly vary. Moreover, the SAM-related SST variability also shows remarkable differences before and after 1998-1999. This difference is primarily attributed to differences in the non-annular spatial component of the SAM between the two periods. Due to the changes in the spatial structure of the SAM, as well as those of the ENSO, SST variability in the SH displays a marked change between the two periods. Detailed descriptions of the decadal changes of the SH SST in terms of interaction in the oceanic and atmospheric variability are presented along with the possible implications of this change.

  5. Bifurcation analysis of delay-induced resonances of the El-Niño Southern Oscillation

    PubMed Central

    Krauskopf, Bernd; Sieber, Jan

    2014-01-01

    Models of global climate phenomena of low to intermediate complexity are very useful for providing an understanding at a conceptual level. An important aspect of such models is the presence of a number of feedback loops that feature considerable delay times, usually due to the time it takes to transport energy (for example, in the form of hot/cold air or water) around the globe. In this paper, we demonstrate how one can perform a bifurcation analysis of the behaviour of a periodically forced system with delay in dependence on key parameters. As an example, we consider the El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is a sea-surface temperature (SST) oscillation on a multi-year scale in the basin of the Pacific Ocean. One can think of ENSO as being generated by an interplay between two feedback effects, one positive and one negative, which act only after some delay that is determined by the speed of transport of SST anomalies across the Pacific. We perform here a case study of a simple delayed-feedback oscillator model for ENSO, which is parametrically forced by annual variation. More specifically, we use numerical bifurcation analysis tools to explore directly regions of delay-induced resonances and other stability boundaries in this delay-differential equation model for ENSO. PMID:25197254

  6. Bifurcation analysis of delay-induced resonances of the El-Niño Southern Oscillation.

    PubMed

    Krauskopf, Bernd; Sieber, Jan

    2014-09-01

    Models of global climate phenomena of low to intermediate complexity are very useful for providing an understanding at a conceptual level. An important aspect of such models is the presence of a number of feedback loops that feature considerable delay times, usually due to the time it takes to transport energy (for example, in the form of hot/cold air or water) around the globe. In this paper, we demonstrate how one can perform a bifurcation analysis of the behaviour of a periodically forced system with delay in dependence on key parameters. As an example, we consider the El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is a sea-surface temperature (SST) oscillation on a multi-year scale in the basin of the Pacific Ocean. One can think of ENSO as being generated by an interplay between two feedback effects, one positive and one negative, which act only after some delay that is determined by the speed of transport of SST anomalies across the Pacific. We perform here a case study of a simple delayed-feedback oscillator model for ENSO, which is parametrically forced by annual variation. More specifically, we use numerical bifurcation analysis tools to explore directly regions of delay-induced resonances and other stability boundaries in this delay-differential equation model for ENSO. PMID:25197254

  7. Long-term variability of the southern Adriatic circulation in relation to North Atlantic Oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shabrang, L.; Menna, M.; Pizzi, C.; Lavigne, H.; Civitarese, G.; Gačić, M.

    2016-02-01

    The interannual variability of the South Adriatic Gyre and its relation to the wind vorticity and the large-scale climatic pattern (North Atlantic Oscillation - NAO) was studied using the time series of satellite altimetric data and ocean surface wind products. The cyclonic circulation observed in the southern Adriatic area was partly sustained by the local wind forcing, as suggested by the positive correlation between the rate of change of the current vorticity and the wind-stress vorticity. Nevertheless, the influence of vorticity advection from the adjacent area (northern Ionian Sea) cannot be ignored and it is more significant during the anticyclonic phase of Adriatic-Ionian Bimodal Oscillation System. The geostrophic current vorticities of the southern Adriatic and northern Ionian seas are correlated with a time lag of 14 months, which approximately corresponds to an advection speed of ˜ 1 cm s-1. The different wind patterns observed during two NAO phases in the winter revealed a stronger positive vorticity during the negative NAO phase. Conversely, during the wintertime positive NAO phase the wind vorticity is characterized by lower positive or slightly negative values. Despite a statistically significant negative correlation between the NAO index and the wind vorticity, no unequivocal relationship between large climatic system and the interannual variability of the South Adriatic Gyre intensity was found due to additional effects of the vorticity advection from the Ionian. This can be explained by the fact that the Ionian circulation mode does not depend on the NAO variations. Therefore, the main result of this study is that the interannual variability of the southern Adriatic cyclonic circulation is a result of the combined influence of the vorticity advection from the Ionian and the local wind-curl effect.

  8. Application of Spaceborne Scatterometer to Study Typhoon, Tropical Hydrologic Balance and El Nino

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liu, W. Timothy

    1995-01-01

    The high spatial resolution and global coverage of a spaceborne microwave scatterometer make it a power instrument to study phenomena ranging from typhoon to El Nino Southern Oscillation which have regional and short term economic and ecological impacts as well as effects on long term and global climate changes. In this report, the application of scatterometer data, by itself, to study the intensity and the evolution of typhoon is demonstrated. The potential of combining wind vector and precipitable water derived from two spaceborne sensors to study the hydrologic balance in the tropics is discussed. The role of westerly wind bursts as a precursor of anomalous warming in the equatorial Pacific is investigated with coincident data from microwave scatterometer, altimeter and radiometer.

  9. TOPEX/El Nino Watch - El Nino Moisture in the Atmosphere, February 22, 1998

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1998-01-01

    This image shows differences in atmospheric water vapor relative to a normal (average) year in the Earth's upper troposphere about 10 kilometers (6 miles) above the surface. These measurements were made by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) instrument aboard NASA's Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS). This image, obtained on February 22, 1998, shows that high levels of atmospheric water vapor (red) continue to persist above the warm water pool, commonly referred to as El Nino, in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This image also shows high levels of atmospheric moisture above Southern California. The extent of this high moisture area along the equator has slightly decreased since late January, which corresponds to the shrinking volume of the warm water pool on the ocean's surface. During El Nino, the warmer ocean water off the coast of Peru evaporates at a higher rate, and the resulting warm moist air rises, forming tall cloud towers. In the tropics, the warm water and the resulting tall cloud towers typically produce large amounts of rain. These data show a new formation of high levels of moisture off the coast of Japan in an area that is the typical breeding ground for winter storms. Storms produced off the coast of Japan normally migrate eastward toward the western United States. During this El Nino condition, the southern tropical jet stream has shifted northward, bringing additional moisture from the tropics. When these two sources of moisture converge near California, they produce storms with higher-than-normal rainfall.

  10. Variations in the tropical greenhouse effect during El Nino

    SciTech Connect

    Soden, B.J.

    1997-05-01

    Observations of the clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation and sea surface temperature are combined to examine the evolution of the tropical greenhouse effect from colder La Nina conditions in early 1985 to warmer El Nino conditions in late 1987. Although comparison of individual months can suggest a decrease in greenhouse trapping from cold to warm conditions, when the entire 4-yr record is considered a distinct increase in tropical-mean greenhouse trapping of {approximately}2 W m{sup -2} is observed in conjunction with a {approximately}0.4 K increase in tropical-mean sea surface temperature. This observed increase compares favorably with GCM simulations of the change in the clear-sky greenhouse effect during El Nifio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Superimposed on top of the SST-driven change in greenhouse trapping are dynamically induced changes in tropical moisture apparently associated with a redistribution of SST during ENSO. The GCM simulations also successfully reproduce this feature, providing reassurance in the ability of GCMs to predict both dynamically and thermodynamically driven changes in greenhouse trapping. 25 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab.

  11. TOPEX/El Nino Watch - El Nino Moisture in the Atmosphere, January and February, 1998

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1998-01-01

    This series of six images shows the evolution of atmospheric water vapor over the Pacific Ocean during the 1998 El Nino condition. Higher than normal ocean water temperatures increase the rate of evaporation, and the resulting warm moist air rises into the atmosphere, altering global weather patterns. Data obtained by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on NASA's Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) during January and February 1998 show a decrease in the extent of high levels of water vapor (red) over the eastern equatorial Pacific and an increase in water vapor (yellow to red) over the northwestern Pacific off the coast of Japan. This area is a breeding ground for winter storms that move eastward toward North America. During this El Nino condition, the southern tropical jet stream has shifted northward, bringing additional moisture from the tropics. When these two sources of moisture converge near California, they produce storms with higher-than-normal rainfall.

  12. El Niño/Southern Oscillation and tropical Pacific climate during the last millennium.

    PubMed

    Cobb, Kim M; Charles, Christopher D; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, R Lawrence

    2003-07-17

    Any assessment of future climate change requires knowledge of the full range of natural variability in the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Here we splice together fossil-coral oxygen isotopic records from Palmyra Island in the tropical Pacific Ocean to provide 30-150-year windows of tropical Pacific climate variability within the last 1,100 years. The records indicate mean climate conditions in the central tropical Pacific ranging from relatively cool and dry during the tenth century to increasingly warmer and wetter climate in the twentieth century. But the corals also document a broad range of ENSO behaviour that correlates poorly with these estimates of mean climate. The most intense ENSO activity within the reconstruction occurred during the mid-seventeenth century. Taken together, the coral data imply that the majority of ENSO variability over the last millennium may have arisen from dynamics internal to the ENSO system itself. PMID:12867972

  13. Reduced El Niño-Southern Oscillation during the Last Glacial Maximum.

    PubMed

    Ford, Heather L; Ravelo, A Christina; Polissar, Pratigya J

    2015-01-16

    El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of global interannual variability, but its response to climate change is uncertain. Paleoclimate records from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) provide insight into ENSO behavior when global boundary conditions (ice sheet extent, atmospheric partial pressure of CO2) were different from those today. In this work, we reconstruct LGM temperature variability at equatorial Pacific sites using measurements of individual planktonic foraminifera shells. A deep equatorial thermocline altered the dynamics in the eastern equatorial cold tongue, resulting in reduced ENSO variability during the LGM compared to the Late Holocene. These results suggest that ENSO was not tied directly to the east-west temperature gradient, as previously suggested. Rather, the thermocline of the eastern equatorial Pacific played a decisive role in the ENSO response to LGM climate. PMID:25593181

  14. Meteorological factors and El Niño Southern Oscillation are independently associated with dengue infections.

    PubMed

    Earnest, A; Tan, S B; Wilder-Smith, A

    2012-07-01

    Our objective was to determine the association between temperature, humidity, rainfall and dengue activity in Singapore, after taking into account lag periods as well as long-term climate variability such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). We used a Poisson model which allowed for autocorrelation and overdispersion in the data. We found weekly mean temperature and mean relative humidity as well as SOI to be significantly and independently associated with dengue notifications. There was an interaction effect by periods of dengue outbreaks, but periods where El Niño was present did not moderate the relationship between humidity and temperature with dengue notifications. Our results help to understand the temporal trends of dengue in Singapore, and further reinforce the findings that meteorological factors are important in the epidemiology of dengue. PMID:21906411

  15. Teleconnections of the Southern Oscillation in the tropical Atlantic sector in the OSU coupled upper ocean-atomosphere GCM

    SciTech Connect

    Hameed, S.; Meinster, A. ); Sperber, K.R. )

    1993-03-01

    The Oregon State University coupled upper ocean-atmosphere GCM has been shown to qualitatively simulate the Southern Oscillation. A composite analysis of the warm and cold events simulated in this 23-year integration has been performed. During the low phase of the Southern Oscillation, when warm anomalies occur in the eastern Pacific, the model simulates for the Atlantic region during March-May (1) a deficit of precipitation over the tropical South American continent, (2) Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico sea level pressure and sea surface temperature are in phase with the eastern Pacific anomalies, while those east of the Nordeste region are out of phase, and (3) northeast trade winds are anomalously weak and southwest trade winds are anomalously strong (as inferred from surface current anomalies). The anomalies in the oceanic processes are induced by perturbations in the atmospheric circulation over the Atlantic and are coupled to changes in the Walker circulation. During the high phase of the simulated Southern Oscillation, conditions in the atmosphere and ocean are essentially the reverse of the low phase. The model produces a response in the South American region during the opposing phases of the Southern Oscillation that is in general agreement with observations. The interannual variation of Nordeste rainfall is shown to be dominated by a few band-limited frequencies. These frequencies are found in the SST series of those regions of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans where strong correlations with Nordeste precipitation exist.

  16. Climate Variability Drives Plankton Community Composition Changes: the 2010-2011 El Nino to La Nina Transition Around Australia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thompson, Peter A.; Bonham, Pru; Thomson, Paul; Rochester, Wayne; Doblin, Martina A.; Waite, Anya M.; Richardson, Anthony; Rousseaux, Cecile S.

    2015-01-01

    The strong La Nina of 2010-2011 provided an opportunity to investigate the ecological impacts of El Nino-Southern Oscillation on coastal plankton communities using the nine national reference stations around Australia. Based on remote sensing and across the entire Australian region 2011 (La Nina) was only modestly different from 2010 (El Nino) with the average temperature declining 0.2 percent surface chlorophyll a up 3 percent and modelled primary production down 14 percent. Other changes included a poleward shift in Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus. Along the east coast, there was a reduction in salinity, increase in nutrients, Chlorophytes and Prasinophytes (taxa with chlorophyll b, neoxanthin and prasinoxanthin). The southwest region had a rise in the proportion of 19-hexoyloxyfucoxanthin; possibly coccolithophorids in eddies of the Leeuwin Current and along the sub-tropical front. Pennate diatoms increased, Ceratium spp. decreased and Scrippsiella spp. increased in 2011. Zooplankton biomass declined significantly in 2011. There was a reduction in the abundance of Calocalanus pavo and Temora turbinata and increases in Clausocalanus farrani, Oncaea scottodicarloi and Macrosetella gracilis in 2011. The changes in the plankton community during the strong La Nina of 2011 suggest that this climatic oscillation exacerbates the tropicalization of Australia.

  17. Connection between El Niño-Southern Oscillation events and river nitrate concentrations in a Mediterranean river.

    PubMed

    Vegas-Vilarrúbia, Teresa; Sigró, Javier; Giralt, Santiago

    2012-06-01

    The causes of interannual nitrate variability in rivers remain uncertain, but extreme climatic events have been suggested as drivers of large nitrate inputs to rivers. Based on a 24-year data set (1983-2006), we suggest that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can affect nitrate behavior in a seasonal extra-tropical stream, the Llobregat (NE Iberian Peninsula), located thousands of kilometers away from the ENSO oscillating system via atmospheric teleconnections. Two commonly used indices, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the self-calibrating-Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) showed highly significant correlations with nitrate concentrations, which recurrently increased during La Niña phases, coinciding with severe droughts. PMID:22542231

  18. El Niño-Southern Oscillation and dengue early warning in Ecuador

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stewart, A. M.; Lowe, R.

    2012-04-01

    Dengue fever, a mosquito-borne viral disease, is one of the most important emerging tropical diseases. Dengue is hyper-endemic in coastal Ecuador, where all four serotypes co-circulate. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences climate in Ecuador, with positive phase ENSO (El Niño) associated with wetter and warmer conditions over the southern coastal region. In turn, greater rainfall increases the availability of mosquito breeding sites for the dengue mosquito (Aedes aegypti), while warmer temperatures increase rates of larval development, mosquito biting, and viral replication in the mosquito. We report a statistical model for assessing the importance of climate as a driver for inter-annual variability in dengue fever in southern coastal Ecuador. Climate variables from a local meteorology station (precipitation, number of rainy days, minimum/maximum/mean air temperature), combined with gridded climate products, and anomalies of Pacific sea surface temperatures (Oceanic Niño Index, ONI) were used to predict monthly dengue standardized morbidity ratios (SMR) (1995-2010). Non-climatic confounding factors such as serotype introduction and vector control effort were also considered. Preliminary results indicated a statistically significant positive association between dengue risk and the number of rainy days during the previous month. Both the number of rainy days and dengue SMR were positively associated with the Pacific SST anomalies with a lead time of several months. Due to time lags involved in the climate-disease transmission system, monitoring El Niño / La Niña evolution in the Pacific Ocean could provide some predictive lead time for forecasting dengue epidemics. This is the first study of dengue fever and climate in this region. This research provides the foundation to develop a climate-driven early warning system for dengue fever in Ecuador.

  19. An Examination of the Hadley Sea-Surface Temperature Time Series for the Nino 3.4 Region

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2010-01-01

    The Hadley sea-surface temperature (HadSST) dataset is investigated for the interval 1871-2008. The purpose of this investigation is to determine the degree of success in identifying and characterizing El Nino (EN) southern (ENSO) extreme events, both EN and La Nina (LN) events. Comparisons are made against both the Southern Oscillation Index for the same time interval and with published values of the Oceanic Nino Index for the interval since 1950. Some 60 ENSO extreme events are identified in the HadSST dataset, consisting of 33 EN and 27 LN events. Also, preferential associations are found to exist between the duration of ENSO extreme events and their maximum anomalous excursion temperatures and between the recurrence rate for an EN event and the duration of the last known EN event. Because the present ongoing EN is a strong event, it should persist 11 months or longer, inferring that the next EN event should not be expected until June 2012 or later. Furthermore, the decadal sum of EN-related months is found to have increased somewhat steadily since the decade of 1920-1929, suggesting that the present decade (2010-2019) possibly will see about 3-4 EN events, totaling about 37 +/- 3 EN-related months (i.e., months that meet the definition for the occurrence of an EN event).

  20. Modulation of the Southern Africa precipitation response to the El Niño Southern Oscillation by the subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoell, Andrew; Funk, Chris; Zinke, Jens; Harrison, Laura

    2016-06-01

    The climate of Southern Africa, defined as the land area bound by the region 15°S-35°S; 12.5°E-42.5°E, during the December-March rainy season is driven by Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole (SIOD). The observed December-March 1979-2014 Southern Africa precipitation during the four ENSO and SIOD phase combinations suggests that the phase of the SIOD can disrupt or enhance the Southern Africa precipitation response to ENSO. Here, we use a large ensemble of model simulations driven by global SST and ENSO-only SST to test whether the SIOD modifies the relationship between Southern Africa precipitation and ENSO. Since ENSO-based precipitation forecasts are used extensively over Southern Africa, an improved understanding of how other modes of SST variability modulate the regional response to ENSO is important. ENSO, in the absence of the SIOD, forces an equivalent barotropic Rossby wave over Southern Africa that modifies the regional mid-tropospheric vertical motions and precipitation anomalies. El Niño (La Niña) is related with high (low) pressure over Southern Africa that produces anomalous mid-tropospheric descent (ascent) and decreases (increases) in precipitation relative to average. When the SIOD and ENSO are in opposite phases, the SIOD compliments the ENSO-related atmospheric response over Southern Africa by strengthening the regional equivalent barotropic Rossby wave, anomalous mid-tropospheric vertical motions and anomalous precipitation. By contrast, when the SIOD and ENSO are in the same phase, the SIOD disrupts the ENSO-related atmospheric response over Southern Africa by weakening the regional equivalent barotropic Rossby wave, anomalous mid-tropospheric vertical motions and anomalous precipitation.

  1. Climate Regimes, El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and Meningococcal Meningitis Epidemics

    PubMed Central

    Oluwole, Olusegun Steven Ayodele

    2015-01-01

    Meningococcal meningitis is a major public health problem that kills thousands annually in Africa, Europe, North, and South America. Occurrence is, however, highest during the dry seasons in Sahel Africa. Interannual changes in precipitation correlate with interannual changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), while interdecadal changes in precipitation correlate with Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The objective of the study was to determine if there is spectral coherence of seasonal, interannual, and interdecadal changes in occurrence of meningococcal meningitis in Sahel, Central, and East Africa with interannual and interdecadal changes of PDO and ENSO. Time series were fitted to occurrence of meningococcal meningitis in Sahel, Central, and East Africa, to indices of precipitation anomalies in the Sahel, and to indices of ENSO and PDO anomalies. Morlet wavelet was used to transform the time series to frequency-time domain. Wavelet spectra and coherence analyses were performed. Occurrence of meningococcal meningitis showed seasonal, interannual, and interdecadal changes. The magnitude of occurrence was higher during warm climate regime, and strong El Niños. Spectra coherence of interannual and interdecadal changes of ENSO and PDO with occurrence of meningococcal meningitis in Sahel, Central, and East Africa were significant at p < 0.0001. Precipitation in Sahel was low during warm climate regimes. Spectra coherence of changes in precipitation in Sahel with ENSO was significant at p < 0.0001. ENSO and PDO are determinants of the seasonal, interannual, and interdecadal changes in occurrence of meningococcal meningitis. Public health management of epidemics of meningococcal meningitis should include forecast models of changes in ENSO to predict periods of low precipitation, which initiate occurrence. PMID:26284234

  2. Influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on global scale flood and drought risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, Philip; Jongman, Brenden; Veldkamp, Ted; Kummu, Matti; Dettinger, Michael; Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; Winsemius, Hessel

    2015-04-01

    In this contribution we demonstrate the influence of climate variability on flood and drought risk. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most dominant interannual signal of climate variability, and has a strong influence on climate over large parts of the world. In turn, it strongly influences many extreme hazards and their resulting socioeconomic impacts, including economic damage and loss of life. Whilst ENSO is known to influence hydrology in many regions of the world, little is known about its influence on the socioeconomic impacts of either floods or droughts. To address this, we developed new modelling frameworks to assess ENSO's influence on both flood risk and drought risk at the global scale. Flood risk is expressed in terms of annual expected damages and annual affected population. Drought risk is expressed in terms of water shortage and water stress. We show that ENSO exerts strong and widespread influences on flood hazard and risk, as well as drought risk. Reliable anomalies of flood risk exist during El Niño or La Niña years, or both, in basins spanning almost half (44%) of Earth's land surface. Significant correlations between ENSO and water scarcity conditions were found for 43% of the global land area, meaning that more than half of the global population is effectively affected by water shortage and stress events under 2010 conditions. Our results show that climate variability, especially from ENSO, should be incorporated into disaster risk analyses and policies. Since ENSO has some predictive skill with lead times of several seasons, the findings suggest the possibility to develop probabilistic risk projections, which could be used for improved disaster planning. The findings are also relevant in the context of climate change. If the frequency and/or magnitude of ENSO events were to change in the future, this could imply changes in flood and drought risk variations across almost half of the world's terrestrial regions. The flood part of

  3. Field-aligned currents in Saturn's southern nightside magnetosphere: Subcorotation and planetary period oscillation components

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hunt, G. J.; Cowley, S. W. H.; Provan, G.; Bunce, E. J.; Alexeev, I. I.; Belenkaya, E. S.; Kalegaev, V. V.; Dougherty, M. K.; Coates, A. J.

    2014-12-01

    We investigate magnetic data showing the presence of field-aligned magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling currents on 31 Cassini passes across Saturn's southern postmidnight auroral region. The currents are strongly modulated in magnitude, form, and position by the phase of the southern planetary period oscillations (PPOs). PPO-independent currents are separated from PPO-related currents using the antisymmetry of the latter with respect to PPO phase. PPO-independent downward currents ~1.1 MA per radian of azimuth flow over the polar open field region indicative of significant plasma subcorotation are enhanced in an outer plasma sheet layer of elevated ionospheric conductivity carrying ~0.8 MA rad-1 and close principally in an upward directed current sheet at ~17°-19° ionospheric colatitude carrying ~2.3 MA rad-1 that maps to the outer hot plasma region in Saturn's magnetosphere (equatorial range ~11-16 Saturn radii (RS)) colocated with the UV oval. Subsidiary downward and upward currents ~0.5 MA rad-1 lie at ~19°-20.5° colatitude mapping to the inner hot plasma region, but no comparable currents are detected at larger colatitudes mapping to the cool plasma regime inside ~8 RS. PPO-related currents at ~17.5°-20° colatitude overlap the main upward and subsidiary downward currents and carry comparable rotating upward and downward currents peaking at ~1.7 MA rad-1. The overall current layer colatitude is also modulated with 1° amplitude in the PPO cycle, maximum equatorward adjacent to the peak upward PPO current and maximum poleward adjacent to peak downward PPO current. This phasing requires the current system to be driven from the planetary atmosphere rather than directly from the magnetosphere.

  4. O the Interannual Variability of South American Climate and the Southern Oscillation.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aceituno, Patricio

    The functioning of the Southern Oscillation (SO) over South America and the surrounding tropical Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Oceans is studied through analyses of SO-related anomalies in various surface and upper-air fields which reveal the three-dimensional characteristics of the SO in this region. Correlation analyses are complemented by case studies of extreme episodes during the negative and positive SO phases (defined as positive by anomalously high/low pressure at Tahiti/Darwin). Most pronounced is the anomalously low pressure and high SST over the Eastern Pacific during the negative SO phase. The perennially positive SO-pressure correlations over the tropical Eastern Pacific extend eastward into the North Atlantic and Southern South America during the respective winter semester. The anomalously warm waters in the tropical Eastern Pacific during the negative SO phase are consistent with positive 500 and 200 mb departures over the tropics indicating a relatively warm troposphere. During austral winter anomalously abundant rainfall in Central Chile during the negative SO phase appears related to a weak and northward displaced South Pacific subtropical high and enhanced upper-air westerlies. By contrast, relatively dry conditions prevail in the northwestern portion of the continent. These seem related to a southward displaced near-equatorial trough, concomitant with enhanced pressure over the Caribbean. During the austral summer, SO-related climate anomalies grow most pronounced, particularly conspicuous being the following three anomaly regimes of the negative SO phase. (i) The excessive rainfall along the Ecuador -Peru littoral and the adjacent open equatorial Pacific is consistent with an intensified and southward displaced near-equatorial trough. (ii) In the tropical North Atlantic during the latter part of the austral summer, the near -equatorial trough is displaced northward, the meridional pressure gradient is reduced, the Northeast trades are weak, the

  5. The El Niño Southern Oscillation and malaria epidemics in South America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gagnon, Alexandre S.; Smoyer-Tomic, Karen E.; Bush, Andrew B.

    2002-05-01

    A better understanding of the relationship between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the climatic anomalies it engenders, and malaria epidemics could help mitigate the world-wide increase in incidence of this mosquito-transmitted disease. The purpose of this paper is to assess the possibility of using ENSO forecasts for improving malaria control. This paper analyses the relationship between ENSO events and malaria epidemics in a number of South American countries (Colombia, Ecuador, French Guiana, Guyana, Peru, Suriname, and Venezuela). A statistically significant relationship was found between El Niño and malaria epidemics in Colombia, Guyana, Peru, and Venezuela. We demonstrate that flooding engenders malaria epidemics in the dry coastal region of northern Peru, while droughts favor the development of epidemics in Colombia and Guyana, and epidemics lag a drought by 1 year in Venezuela. In Brazil, French Guiana, and Ecuador, where we did not detect an ENSO/malaria signal, non-climatic factors such as insecticide sprayings, variation in availability of anti-malaria drugs, and population migration are likely to play a stronger role in malaria epidemics than ENSO-generated climatic anomalies. In some South American countries, El Niño forecasts show strong potential for informing public health efforts to control malaria.

  6. El Niño-Southern oscillation variability from the late cretaceous marca shale of California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Davies, Andrew; Kemp, Alan E.S.; Weedon, Graham P.; Barron, John A.

    2012-01-01

    Changes in the possible behavior of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with global warming have provoked interest in records of ENSO from past “greenhouse” climate states. The latest Cretaceous laminated Marca Shale of California permits a seasonal-scale reconstruction of water column flux events and hence interannual paleoclimate variability. The annual flux cycle resembles that of the modern Gulf of California with diatoms characteristic of spring upwelling blooms followed by silt and clay, and is consistent with the existence of a paleo–North American Monsoon that brought input of terrigenous sediment during summer storms and precipitation runoff. Variation is also indicated in the extent of water column oxygenation by differences in lamina preservation. Time series analysis of interannual variability in terrigenous sediment and diatom flux and in the degree of bioturbation indicates strong periodicities in the quasi-biennial (2.1–2.8 yr) and low-frequency (4.1–6.3 yr) bands both characteristic of ENSO forcing, as well as decadal frequencies. This evidence for robust Late Cretaceous ENSO variability does not support the theory of a “permanent El Niño,” in the sense of a continual El Niño–like state, in periods of warmer climate.

  7. Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the global yields of major crops.

    PubMed

    Iizumi, Toshichika; Luo, Jing-Jia; Challinor, Andrew J; Sakurai, Gen; Yokozawa, Masayuki; Sakuma, Hirofumi; Brown, Molly E; Yamagata, Toshio

    2014-01-01

    The monitoring and prediction of climate-induced variations in crop yields, production and export prices in major food-producing regions have become important to enable national governments in import-dependent countries to ensure supplies of affordable food for consumers. Although the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) often affects seasonal temperature and precipitation, and thus crop yields in many regions, the overall impacts of ENSO on global yields are uncertain. Here we present a global map of the impacts of ENSO on the yields of major crops and quantify its impacts on their global-mean yield anomalies. Results show that El Niño likely improves the global-mean soybean yield by 2.1-5.4% but appears to change the yields of maize, rice and wheat by -4.3 to +0.8%. The global-mean yields of all four crops during La Niña years tend to be below normal (-4.5 to 0.0%). Our findings highlight the importance of ENSO to global crop production. PMID:24827075

  8. El Niño Southern Oscillation and leptospirosis outbreaks in New Caledonia.

    PubMed

    Weinberger, Daniel; Baroux, Noémie; Grangeon, Jean-Paul; Ko, Albert I; Goarant, Cyrille

    2014-04-01

    Leptospirosis is an important cause of seasonal outbreaks in New Caledonia and the tropics. Using time series derived from high-quality laboratory-based surveillance from 2000-2012, we evaluated whether climatic factors, including El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and meteorological conditions allow for the prediction of leptospirosis outbreaks in New Caledonia. We found that La Niña periods are associated with high rainfall, and both of these factors were in turn, temporally associated with outbreaks of leptospirosis. The sea surface temperature in El Niño Box 4 allowed forecasting of leptospirosis outbreaks four months into the future, a time lag allowing public health authorities to increase preparedness. To our knowledge, our observations in New Caledonia are the first demonstration that ENSO has a strong association with leptospirosis. This association should be tested in other regions in the South Pacific, Asia or Latin America where ENSO may drive climate variability and the risk for leptospirosis outbreaks. PMID:24743322

  9. An analysis of high cloud variability: imprints from the El Niño-Southern Oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, King-Fai; Su, Hui; Mak, Sze-Ning; Chang, Tiffany M.; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Norris, Joel R.; Yung, Yuk L.

    2016-03-01

    Using data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), we examine how near-global (60°N-60°S) high cloud fraction varies over time in the past three decades. Our focus is on identifying dominant modes of variability and associated spatial patterns, and how they are related to sea surface temperature. By performing the principal component analysis, we find that the first two principal modes of high cloud distribution show strong imprints of the two types of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—the canonical ENSO and the ENSO Modoki. Comparisons between ISCCP data and 14 models from the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (AMIP5) show that models simulate the spatial pattern and the temporal variations of high cloud fraction associated with the canonical ENSO very well but the magnitudes of the canonical ENSO vary among the models. Furthermore, the multi-model mean of the second principal mode in the AMIP5 simulations appears to capture the temporal behavior of the second mode but individual AMIP5 models show large discrepancies in capturing observed temporal variations. A new metric, defined by the relative variances of the first two principal components, suggests that most of the AMIP5 models overestimate the second principal mode of high clouds.

  10. A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT OF EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION EVENTS ON COASTAL WATER QUALITY IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. (R825197)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

  11. The 1997-98 El Nino Event and Related Wintertime Lightning Variations in the Southeastern United States

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goodman, S. J.; Buechler, D. E.; Knupp, K.; Driscoll, K.; McCaul, E. W.

    1999-01-01

    The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate anomaly responsible for world-wide weather impacts ranging from droughts to floods. In the United States, warm episode years are known to produce above normal rainfall along the Southeast US Gulf Coast and into the Gulf of Mexico, with the greatest response observed in the October-March period of the latest warm-episode year. The 1997-98 warm episode, notable for being the strongest event since 1982-83, presents our first opportunity to examine the response to a major ENSO event and determine the variation of wintertime thunderstorm activity in this part of the world. Due to the recent launch of a lightning sensor on NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) in November 1997 and the expanded coverage of the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), we are able to examine such year-to-year changes in lightning activity with far greater detail than ever before.

  12. The 1997-98 El-Nino Event and Related Lightning Variations in the Southeastern United States

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Buechler, D. E.; Goodman, S. J.; McCaul, E. W.; Knupp, K.

    1999-01-01

    The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate anomaly responsible for world-wide weather impacts ranging from droughts to floods. In the United States, warm episode years are known to produce above normal rainfall along the Southeast US Gulf Coast and into the Gulf of Mexico, with the greatest response observed in the October-March period of the current warm-episode year. The 1997-98 warm episode, notable for being the strongest event since 1982-83, presents our first opportunity to examine the response to a major ENSO event and determine the variation of wintertime thunderstorm activity in this part of the world. Due to the recent launch of a lightning sensor on NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) in November 1997 and the expanded coverage of the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), we are able to examine such year-to-year changes in lightning activity with far greater detail than ever before.

  13. On the interannual variability of ocean temperatures around South Georgia, Southern Ocean: Forcing by El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meredith, Michael P.; Murphy, Eugene J.; Hawker, Elizabeth J.; King, John C.; Wallace, Margaret I.

    2008-09-01

    The ocean around South Georgia, in the southwest Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean, is highly productive, with large stocks of Antarctic krill supporting extensive colonies of marine- and land-based predators. The operation of this ecosystem is strongly influenced by physical forcings, and the role of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon has been highlighted previously. Here we examine in detail the transmission of ENSO signals to South Georgia, and investigate other sources of interannual variability. ENSO variability generates anomalies in sea-surface temperature (SST) across the South Pacific via atmospheric teleconnections. These anomalies are advected toward South Georgia within the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), and previous studies have focussed on long-period advection (order of 2-3 years) from the southwest Pacific. We observe here, however, that the region close to the Antarctic Peninsula in the southeast Pacific is especially susceptible to ENSO forcing via anomalous meridional winds; this induces SST anomalies that are advected to South Georgia on a much more rapid timescale (order 5-6 months). The phasing of these teleconnections is such that anomalies that reach the southeast Pacific from farther west tend to be reinforced here by air-sea-ice interaction. We also find an important role for the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) in determining SST variability at South Georgia. This is a circumpolar mode of climate variability, and thus can readily influence local SST at South Georgia directly. The SAM is, however, not perfectly zonally symmetric, and (like ENSO) has a particular impact on meridional winds in the southeast Pacific. The average timescale for SAM influence on South Georgia SST is shorter than that of ENSO, since it includes a stronger component of direct local forcing. The South Georgia ecosystem is not self-sustaining, with import of krill from breeding and nursery grounds upstream in the ACC being important. We

  14. Multiproxy reconstructions of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation: progress and challenges (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Emile-Geay, J.; Comboul, M.; Guillot, D.; Cobb, K.; Evans, M. N.; Correge, T.; Carré, M.; Driscoll, R. E.; Elliot, M.; Mcgregor, H. V.; Tudhope, A. W.; Cole, J. E.; Rajaratnam, B.

    2013-12-01

    A major source of uncertainty in climate model projections of the twenty-first century is the evolution of the tropical Pacific ocean/atmosphere system, home to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the dominant mode of global climate variability on interannual to decadal timescales. Indeed, there is no consensus among models as to how its mean state, amplitude, frequency, spatial structure, and atmospheric teleconnections will evolve with continued anthropogenic forcing. Since the instrumental record is too short to usefully characterize low-frequency climate variability, one must turn to the paleoclimate record for a longer view. Because each paleo archive is limited by its own sets of errors and biases, it is generally believed that a multiproxy approach holds the best promise in estimating past climate variations. However, multiproxy-based estimates of past tropical Pacific climate, in particular ENSO, are hindered by three main challenges: - weighing information from different proxy types - treating uncertainties due to chronological errors - treating uncertainties due to the statistical calibration process These sources of uncertainty complicate the interpretation of multiproxy reconstructions, prompting inquiries as to whether reconstructed variations reflect a true change in the phenomenon of interest (here, ENSO), or merely a change in the relative contribution of different observations, sensors, archives, observing sites, or statistical artifacts due to the extremely illl-posed nature of the multivariate estimation problem. In this presentation, I will synthesize lessons gleaned from recent multiproxy studies I have led - univariate and multivariate, coral-only and multiproxy, and explicitly quantifying age errors. The comparison will illustrate how the challenges identified above play out in different settings over the last millennium and Holocene, and how the resulting uncertainties may be quantified and communicated to end-users of such

  15. Strong influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on flood risk around the world

    PubMed Central

    Ward, Philip J.; Jongman, Brenden; Kummu, Matti; Dettinger, Michael D.; Sperna Weiland, Frederiek C.; Winsemius, Hessel C.

    2014-01-01

    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most dominant interannual signal of climate variability and has a strong influence on climate over large parts of the world. In turn, it strongly influences many natural hazards (such as hurricanes and droughts) and their resulting socioeconomic impacts, including economic damage and loss of life. However, although ENSO is known to influence hydrology in many regions of the world, little is known about its influence on the socioeconomic impacts of floods (i.e., flood risk). To address this, we developed a modeling framework to assess ENSO’s influence on flood risk at the global scale, expressed in terms of affected population and gross domestic product and economic damages. We show that ENSO exerts strong and widespread influences on both flood hazard and risk. Reliable anomalies of flood risk exist during El Niño or La Niña years, or both, in basins spanning almost half (44%) of Earth’s land surface. Our results show that climate variability, especially from ENSO, should be incorporated into disaster-risk analyses and policies. Because ENSO has some predictive skill with lead times of several seasons, the findings suggest the possibility to develop probabilistic flood-risk projections, which could be used for improved disaster planning. The findings are also relevant in the context of climate change. If the frequency and/or magnitude of ENSO events were to change in the future, this finding could imply changes in flood-risk variations across almost half of the world’s terrestrial regions. PMID:25331867

  16. Inferred changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation variance over the past six centuries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McGregor, S.; Timmermann, A.; England, M. H.; Elison Timm, O.; Wittenberg, A. T.

    2013-10-01

    It is vital to understand how the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has responded to past changes in natural and anthropogenic forcings, in order to better understand and predict its response to future greenhouse warming. To date, however, the instrumental record is too brief to fully characterize natural ENSO variability, while large discrepancies exist amongst paleo-proxy reconstructions of ENSO. These paleo-proxy reconstructions have typically attempted to reconstruct ENSO's temporal evolution, rather than the variance of these temporal changes. Here a new approach is developed that synthesizes the variance changes from various proxy data sets to provide a unified and updated estimate of past ENSO variance. The method is tested using surrogate data from two coupled general circulation model (CGCM) simulations. It is shown that in the presence of dating uncertainties, synthesizing variance information provides a more robust estimate of ENSO variance than synthesizing the raw data and then identifying its running variance. We also examine whether good temporal correspondence between proxy data and instrumental ENSO records implies a good representation of ENSO variance. In the climate modeling framework we show that a significant improvement in reconstructing ENSO variance changes is found when combining information from diverse ENSO-teleconnected source regions, rather than by relying on a single well-correlated location. This suggests that ENSO variance estimates derived from a single site should be viewed with caution. Finally, synthesizing existing ENSO reconstructions to arrive at a better estimate of past ENSO variance changes, we find robust evidence that the ENSO variance for any 30 yr period during the interval 1590-1880 was considerably lower than that observed during 1979-2009.

  17. Inferred changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation variance over the past six centuries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McGregor, S.; Timmermann, A.; England, M. H.; Elison Timm, O.; Wittenberg, A. T.

    2013-05-01

    It is vital to understand how the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has responded to past changes in natural and anthropogenic forcings, in order to better understand and predict its response to future greenhouse warming. To date, however, the instrumental record is too brief to fully characterize natural ENSO variability, while large discrepancies exist amongst paleo-proxy reconstructions of ENSO. These paleo-proxy reconstructions have typically attempted to reconstruct the full temporal variability of ENSO, rather than focusing simply on its variance. Here a new approach is developed that synthesizes the information on common low frequency variance changes from various proxy datasets to obtain estimates of ENSO variance. The method is tested using surrogate data from two coupled general circulation model (CGCM) simulations. It is shown that in the presence of dating uncertainties, synthesizing variance information provides a more robust estimate of ENSO variance than synthesizing the raw data than identifying its running variance. We also examine whether good temporal correspondence between proxy data and instrumental ENSO records implies a good representation of ENSO variance. A significant improvement in reconstructing ENSO variance changes is found when combining several proxies from diverse ENSO-teleconnected source regions, rather than by relying on a single well-correlated location, suggesting that ENSO variance estimates provided derived from a single site should be viewed with caution. Finally, identifying the common variance signal in a series of existing proxy based reconstructions of ENSO variability over the last 600 yr we find that the common ENSO variance over the period 1600-1900 was considerably lower than during 1979-2009.

  18. Precipitation Producing Synoptic-Scale Flow and El Niño-Southern Oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Svoma, B. M.

    2014-12-01

    The differences in winter synoptic-scale flow during precipitation events between phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation are established for the coastal southwest United States. Principal component analysis in T-mode with Varimax rotation was performed on fields of 500-hPa, 700-hPa, and 850-hPa geopotential height and specific humidity (from the North American Regional Reanalysis) during days with precipitation. These precipitation days were grouped through a k-means cluster analysis of the loadings on the extracted components from all atmospheric variables. Eight clusters were ultimately analyzed based on separation and cohesion statistics. Analyses of cluster membership and cluster composite maps reveal synoptic-scale patterns that are most common during particular phases of ENSO. Distinctly El Niño patterns are charactized by a broad offshore upper level trough with relatively moist low-level onshore flow. Distinctly La Niña patterns display a deep southwest-northeast oriented trough over the western United States with drier low-level onshore flow. Analysis of 250-hPa potential vorticity suggests that the La Niña (El Niño) patterns are linked to anticyclonic (cyclonic) baroclinic wave breaking events. This agrees with a recent line of investigations which find anticyclonic (cyclonic) wave breaking in the Pacific North American region to be more common during La Niña (El Niño) events. Knowledge of interannual variability in winter precipitation event characteristics can improve seasonal runoff forecasts and advance understanding of interdecadal variability and the effects of climate change in the western United States.

  19. El Niño-Southern Oscillation Impacts on Winter Vegetable Production in Florida*.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hansen, James W.; Jones, James W.; Kiker, Clyde F.; Hodges, Alan W.

    1999-01-01

    Florida's mild winters allow the state to play a vital role in supplying fresh vegetables for U.S. consumers. Producers also benefit from premium prices when low temperatures prevent production in most of the country. This study characterizes the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Florida vegetable industry using statistical analysis of the response of historical crop (yield, prices, production, and value) and weather variables (freeze hazard, temperatures, rainfall, and solar radiation) to ENSO phase and its interaction with location and time of year. Annual mean yields showed little evidence of response to ENSO phase and its interaction with location. ENSO phase and season interacted to influence quarterly yields, prices, production, and value. Yields (tomato, bell pepper, sweet corn, and snap bean) were lower and prices (bell pepper and snap bean) were higher in El Niño than in neutral or La Niña winters. Production and value of tomatoes were higher in La Niña winters. The yield response can be explained by increased rainfall, reduced daily maximum temperatures, and reduced solar radiation in El Niño winters. Yield and production of winter vegetables appeared to be less responsive to ENSO phase after 1980; for tomato and bell pepper, this may be due to improvements in production technology that mitigate problems associated with excess rainfall. Winter yield and price responses to El Niño events have important implications for both producers and consumers of winter vegetables, and suggest opportunities for further research.

  20. Strong influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on flood risk around the world

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, Philip J.; Jongman, Brenden; Kummu, Matti; Dettinger, Michael D.; Sperna Weiland, Frederiek C.; Winsemius, Hessel C.

    2014-11-01

    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most dominant interannual signal of climate variability and has a strong influence on climate over large parts of the world. In turn, it strongly influences many natural hazards (such as hurricanes and droughts) and their resulting socioeconomic impacts, including economic damage and loss of life. However, although ENSO is known to influence hydrology in many regions of the world, little is known about its influence on the socioeconomic impacts of floods (i.e., flood risk). To address this, we developed a modeling framework to assess ENSO's influence on flood risk at the global scale, expressed in terms of affected population and gross domestic product and economic damages. We show that ENSO exerts strong and widespread influences on both flood hazard and risk. Reliable anomalies of flood risk exist during El Niño or La Niña years, or both, in basins spanning almost half (44%) of Earth's land surface. Our results show that climate variability, especially from ENSO, should be incorporated into disaster-risk analyses and policies. Because ENSO has some predictive skill with lead times of several seasons, the findings suggest the possibility to develop probabilistic flood-risk projections, which could be used for improved disaster planning. The findings are also relevant in the context of climate change. If the frequency and/or magnitude of ENSO events were to change in the future, this finding could imply changes in flood-risk variations across almost half of the world's terrestrial regions.

  1. Annual flood sensitivities to El Niño-Southern Oscillation at the global scale

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ward, Philip J.; Eisner, S.; Flörke, M.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Kummu, M.

    2013-01-01

    Floods are amongst the most dangerous natural hazards in terms of economic damage. Whilst a growing number of studies have examined how river floods are influenced by climate change, the role of natural modes of interannual climate variability remains poorly understood. We present the first global assessment of the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on annual river floods, defined here as the peak daily discharge in a given year. The analysis was carried out by simulating daily gridded discharges using the WaterGAP model (Water – a Global Assessment and Prognosis), and examining statistical relationships between these discharges and ENSO indices. We found that, over the period 1958–2000, ENSO exerted a significant influence on annual floods in river basins covering over a third of the world's land surface, and that its influence on annual floods has been much greater than its influence on average flows. We show that there are more areas in which annual floods intensify with La Niña and decline with El Niño than vice versa. However, we also found that in many regions the strength of the relationships between ENSO and annual floods have been non-stationary, with either strengthening or weakening trends during the study period. We discuss the implications of these findings for science and management. Given the strong relationships between ENSO and annual floods, we suggest that more research is needed to assess relationships between ENSO and flood impacts (e.g. loss of lives or economic damage). Moreover, we suggest that in those regions where useful relationships exist, this information could be combined with ongoing advances in ENSO prediction research, in order to provide year-to-year probabilistic flood risk forecasts.

  2. Southern Oscillation Signal in South American Palaeoclimatic Data of the Last 7000 Years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martin, Louis; Fournier, Marc; Mourguiart, Philippe; Sifeddine, Abdelfatah; Turcq, Bruno; Flexor, Jean-Marie; Absy, Maria Lucia

    1993-05-01

    During strong El Niño events, rainfall anomalies and changes in wind patterns are observed in different regions of South America. Along the central Brazilian coast, during the 1983 El Niño year, the frontal systems were blocked to the south, provoking a reversal of the longshore sand transport. Long-duration reversals of longshore transport were also recorded in Holocene beach-ridge terraces from the Rio Doce coastal plain. This led to the formulation of a model relating these reversals of longshore transport to El Niño-like conditions. El Niño-like conditions are past average climate situations that generate the same perturbations as the strong El Niño events observed during the last decade. They are likely to correspond to the long-duration low phase of the Southern Oscillation. To confirm this hypothesis we compared the Holocene beach-ridge record with other palaeoenvironmental records from regions where strong El Niño events would have a substancial signal as well: (1) water-level fluctuations of Lake Titicaca, (2) a pollen and sediment record in an eastern Amazonian lake, (3) changes of the Rio Xingu discharge in eastern Amazonia, and (4) variations of sand supply at the Rio Piura and Rio Chira outlets in the Sechura Desert. The occurrences of El Niño-like conditions were numerous before 3900-3600 yr B.P., absent between 39003600 and 2800-2500 yr B.P., and infrequent after 2800-2500 yr B.P.

  3. Strong influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on flood risk around the world

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ward, Philip J.; Jongman, B; Kummu, M.; Dettinger, Mike; Sperna Weiland, F.C; Winsemius, H.C

    2014-01-01

    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most dominant interannual signal of climate variability and has a strong influence on climate over large parts of the world. In turn, it strongly influences many natural hazards (such as hurricanes and droughts) and their resulting socioeconomic impacts, including economic damage and loss of life. However, although ENSO is known to influence hydrology in many regions of the world, little is known about its influence on the socioeconomic impacts of floods (i.e., flood risk). To address this, we developed a modeling framework to assess ENSO’s influence on flood risk at the global scale, expressed in terms of affected population and gross domestic product and economic damages. We show that ENSO exerts strong and widespread influences on both flood hazard and risk. Reliable anomalies of flood risk exist during El Niño or La Niña years, or both, in basins spanning almost half (44%) of Earth’s land surface. Our results show that climate variability, especially from ENSO, should be incorporated into disaster-risk analyses and policies. Because ENSO has some predictive skill with lead times of several seasons, the findings suggest the possibility to develop probabilistic flood-risk projections, which could be used for improved disaster planning. The findings are also relevant in the context of climate change. If the frequency and/or magnitude of ENSO events were to change in the future, this finding could imply changes in flood-risk variations across almost half of the world’s terrestrial regions.

  4. Strong influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on flood risk around the world.

    PubMed

    Ward, Philip J; Jongman, Brenden; Kummu, Matti; Dettinger, Michael D; Sperna Weiland, Frederiek C; Winsemius, Hessel C

    2014-11-01

    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most dominant interannual signal of climate variability and has a strong influence on climate over large parts of the world. In turn, it strongly influences many natural hazards (such as hurricanes and droughts) and their resulting socioeconomic impacts, including economic damage and loss of life. However, although ENSO is known to influence hydrology in many regions of the world, little is known about its influence on the socioeconomic impacts of floods (i.e., flood risk). To address this, we developed a modeling framework to assess ENSO's influence on flood risk at the global scale, expressed in terms of affected population and gross domestic product and economic damages. We show that ENSO exerts strong and widespread influences on both flood hazard and risk. Reliable anomalies of flood risk exist during El Niño or La Niña years, or both, in basins spanning almost half (44%) of Earth's land surface. Our results show that climate variability, especially from ENSO, should be incorporated into disaster-risk analyses and policies. Because ENSO has some predictive skill with lead times of several seasons, the findings suggest the possibility to develop probabilistic flood-risk projections, which could be used for improved disaster planning. The findings are also relevant in the context of climate change. If the frequency and/or magnitude of ENSO events were to change in the future, this finding could imply changes in flood-risk variations across almost half of the world's terrestrial regions. PMID:25331867

  5. Influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on global hydropower production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ng, Jia Yi; Turner, Sean; Galelli, Stefano

    2016-04-01

    Hydropower contributes significantly to meeting the world's energy demand, accounting for at least 16% of total electrical output. Its role as a mature and cost competitive renewable energy source is expected to become increasingly important as the world transits to a low-carbon economy. A key component of hydropower production is runoff, which is highly dependent on precipitation and other climate variables. As such, it becomes critical to understand how the drivers of climate variability impact hydropower production. One globally-important driver is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). While it is known that ENSO influences hydrological processes, the potential value of its associated teleconnection in design related tasks has yet to be explored at the global scale. Our work seeks to characterize the impact of ENSO on global hydropower production so as to quantify the potential for increased production brought about by incorporating climate information within reservoir operating models. We study over 1,500 hydropower reservoirs - representing more than half the world's hydropower capacity. A historical monthly reservoir inflow time series is assigned to each reservoir from a 0.5 degree gridded global runoff dataset. Reservoir operating rules are designed using stochastic dynamic programming, and storage dynamics are simulated to assess performance under the climate conditions of the 20th century. Results show that hydropower reservoirs in the United States, Brazil, Argentina, Australia, and Eastern China are strongly influenced by ENSO episodes. Statistically significant lag correlations between ENSO indicators and hydropower production demonstrate predictive skill with lead times up to several months. Our work highlights the potential for using these indicators to increase the contribution of existing hydropower plants to global energy supplies.

  6. Dwarf nova oscillations and quasi-periodic oscillations in cataclysmic variables - VIII. VW Hyi in outburst observed with the Southern African Large Telescope

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woudt, P. A.; Warner, B.; O'Donoghue, D.; Buckley, D. A. H.; Still, M.; Romero-Colemero, E.; Väisänen, P.

    2010-01-01

    We analyse four light curves obtained at high time resolution (~0.1s) with the 11-m Southern African Large Telescope, at the ends of two normal outbursts and one superoutburst of the dwarf nova VW Hyi. All of these contain at least some Dwarf Nova Oscillations (DNOs), which, when at their highest amplitudes, are seen in unprecedented detail. In addition to the expected DNOs with periods >20 s, we find a previously unknown modulation at 13.39s, but none at shorter periods. The various DNOs and their interaction with the longer period quasi-periodic oscillations are interpreted in terms of the model of magnetically controlled flow from an accretion disc proposed earlier in this series of papers. Our observations include rare DNOs very late in outburst; we find that the fundamental period does not increase beyond ~90 s, which is the same value that the independent `longer period DNOs' converge on. Based on observations made with the Southern African Large Telescope (SALT). E-mail: Patrick.Woudt@uct.ac.za

  7. Investigations of the middle atmospheric thermal structure and oscillations over sub-tropical regions in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharma, Som; Kumar, Prashant; Jethva, Chintan; Vaishnav, Rajesh; Bencherif, Hassan

    2016-08-01

    The temperature retrieved from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) onboard Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite during January 2002 to September 2015 are used in this study to delineate the differences of middle atmospheric thermal structure in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH). Two stations namely Mt. Abu (24.59°N, 72.70°E) in NH and Reunion Island (21.11°S, 55.53°E) in SH are chosen over sub-tropical regions. Temperature climatology from SABER observations suggests that stratopause is warmer, and upper mesosphere is cooler in NH as compared to SH. Three atmospheric models are used to understand the monthly thermal structure differences for different altitudes. Moreover, semi-annual, annual and quasi-biennial oscillations are studied using Lomb Scargle Periodogram and Wavelet transform techniques. Over NH, summer and winter season are warmer (~4 K) and cooler (~3 K) respectively in stratosphere as compared to SH. It is important to note here that Mt. Abu temperature is warmer (~9 K) than Reunion Island in winter but in summer season Mt. Abu temperature is cooler in upper mesosphere and above mesosphere NH shows warming. Results show that annual oscillations are dominated in both hemisphere as compared to semi-annual and quasi-biennial oscillations. In upper mesosphere, strength of annual oscillations is substantial in NH, while semi-annual oscillations are stronger in SH. Wavelet analyses found that annual oscillations are significant in NH near mesopause, while semi-annual oscillations are strengthening in SH.

  8. Detection of Characteristic Precipitation Anomaly Patterns of El Nino / La Nina in Time- variable Gravity Fields by GRACE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heki, K.; Morishita, Y.

    2007-12-01

    GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellites, launched in March 2002, have been mapping monthly gravity fields of the Earth, allowing us to infer changes in surface mass, e.g. water and ice. Past findings include the ice mass loss in southern Greenland (Luthcke et al., 2006) and its acceleration in 2004 (Velicogna and Wahr, 2006), crustal dilatation by the 2004 Sumatra Earthquake (Han et al., 2006) and the postseismic movement of water in mantle (Ogawa and Heki, 2007). ENSO (El Nino and Southern Oscillation) brings about global climate impacts, together with its opposite phenomenon, La Nina. Ropelewski and Halpert (1987) showed typical precipitation patterns in ENSO years; characteristic regional-scale precipitation anomalies occur in India, tropical and southern Africa and South America. Nearly opposite precipitation anomalies are shown to occur in La Nina years (Ropelewski and Halpert, 1988). Here we report the detection of such precipitation anomaly patterns in the GRACE monthly gravity data 2002 - 2007, which includes both La Nina (2005 fall - 2006 spring) and El Nino (2006 fall - 2007 spring) periods. We modeled the worldwide gravity time series with constant trends and seasonal changes, and extracted deviations of gravity values at two time epochs, i.e. February 2006 and 2007, and converted them into the changes in equivalent surface water mass. East Africa showed negative gravity deviation (-20.5 cm in water) in 2006 February (La Nina), which reversed to positive (18.7 cm) in 2007 February (El Nino). Northern and southern parts of South America also showed similar see-saw patterns. Such patterns closely resemble to those found meteorologically (Ropelewski and Halpert, 1987; 1988), suggesting the potential of GRACE as a sensor of inter-annual precipitation anomalies through changes in continental water storage. We performed numerical simulations of soil moisture changes at grid points in land area incorporating the CMAP precipitation data, NCEP

  9. Extended-range forecast of spring rainfall in southern China based on the Madden-Julian Oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Wenkai; Hsu, Pang-chi; He, Jinhai; Zhu, Zhiwei; Zhang, Wenjun

    2016-06-01

    Spring (March-May) rainfall after a dry period in winter has a substantial impact on agriculture and water management in populous southern China. The occurrence of low-frequency spring rainfall anomalies has been linked with the tropical Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) through its modulation of large-scale circulation and moisture supply over southern China. Using the spatial and temporal information of the MJO as a predictor, an empirical model for extended-range forecasting of spring rainfall in southern China was constructed. We first obtained the coupled patterns between the preceding MJO evolutions (real-time multivariate MJO index) and the succeeding rainfall variability in southern China based on singular value decomposition analysis. Then, a prediction was carried out by projecting the predictor onto the spatiotemporal coupled patterns. Useful skill, in terms of the temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) between the predicted and observed rainfall over southern China, persisted up to a forecast lead-time of six pentads. The forecast amplitude bias in terms of root-mean-square error was around 1.0 standard deviation. Also, the forecast skill was highly dependent on the strength of the MJO signal. During active MJO periods, the TCC skill was around twofold larger than that during weak MJO periods. The current statistical model shows encouraging ability, but additional work is required to improve its forecasting skill.

  10. Extended-range forecast of spring rainfall in southern China based on the Madden-Julian Oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Wenkai; Hsu, Pang-chi; He, Jinhai; Zhu, Zhiwei; Zhang, Wenjun

    2015-11-01

    Spring (March-May) rainfall after a dry period in winter has a substantial impact on agriculture and water management in populous southern China. The occurrence of low-frequency spring rainfall anomalies has been linked with the tropical Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) through its modulation of large-scale circulation and moisture supply over southern China. Using the spatial and temporal information of the MJO as a predictor, an empirical model for extended-range forecasting of spring rainfall in southern China was constructed. We first obtained the coupled patterns between the preceding MJO evolutions (real-time multivariate MJO index) and the succeeding rainfall variability in southern China based on singular value decomposition analysis. Then, a prediction was carried out by projecting the predictor onto the spatiotemporal coupled patterns. Useful skill, in terms of the temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) between the predicted and observed rainfall over southern China, persisted up to a forecast lead-time of six pentads. The forecast amplitude bias in terms of root-mean-square error was around 1.0 standard deviation. Also, the forecast skill was highly dependent on the strength of the MJO signal. During active MJO periods, the TCC skill was around twofold larger than that during weak MJO periods. The current statistical model shows encouraging ability, but additional work is required to improve its forecasting skill.

  11. The Impact of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Meridional Mode on Seasonal Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, P.; Patricola, C. M.; Saravanan, R.

    2013-05-01

    The influence of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity on the interannual timescale is well understood, with El Niño (La Niña) inhibiting (promoting) TC activity through enhanced (reduced) vertical wind shear in the Atlantic main development region (MDR). The switch from relatively inactive to active Atlantic TC seasons in the mid-1990's has highlighted the relationship of Atlantic TC activity to interannual to decadal modes of Atlantic climate variability, including the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM). This study investigates the influence of concurrent strong (exceeding the 90th percentile) positive and negative phases of ENSO and the AMM/AMO on seasonal Atlantic TC activity using a 27-km resolution regional climate model that represents the observed 1980-2000 interannual variability of Atlantic accumulated cyclone energy (ACE; 104 kt2) with a correlation of R=0.58 when observed Atlantic and eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) are prescribed. Experiments are designed by forcing the model with a strong El Niño or La Niña by prescribing LBCs and eastern tropical Pacific SST of 1987 and 1999 respectively, in combination with strongly positive, neutral/weakly positive, and strongly negative phases of the AMM through prescribed Atlantic SST of 2005, 1987 or 1999, and 1984, respectively. Two ensembles of each experiment are run. During the strong El Niño, simulated Atlantic ACE is weaker than the simulated 1980-2000 mean of 112 regardless of the AMM phase. The ACE changes relatively little between the negative (48) and neutral (59) AMM, but increases moderately between the neutral and positive (87) AMM during the El Niño. This, together with the response in MDR vertical wind shear suggests that the threshold MDR shear for TC suppression occurs between the neutral and positive AMM phase during an El Niño. During the

  12. The Relation between Indian Monsoon Rainfall, the Southern Oscillation, and Hemispheric Air and Sea Temperature: 1884-1984.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elliott, W. P.; Angell, J. K.

    1987-08-01

    Correlations between the June-September Indian monsoon rainfall and Santiago minus Darwin pressure, Tahiti minus Darwin pressure, and Wright's Southern Oscillation index, as well as the individual station pressure deviations themselves, show that the monsoon rainfall anticipates the Southern Oscillation Indices and the individual pressure deviations with the exception of the pressure at Santiago. Monsoon rainfall is also negatively correlated with sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific one to two seasons later. The correlations suggest that above average monsoon rainfall is associated with below average Southern Hemisphere temperatures two to three seasons later, whereas above average Northern Hemisphere winter temperatures-particularly continental temperatures-anticipate above average rainfall. The correlations with hemispheric temperatures are significant only since about 1947, however. A strong negative correlation (0.64) between the seasonal change in Darwin's pressure deviation from December-February to March-May prior to the monsoon, and monsoon rainfall is found in the period 1947-84, but only weakly in the period before 1947.

  13. El Niño Southern Oscillation Influences River Bank Erosion on the Lower Mekong River

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Darby, S. E.; Trieu, H. Q.; Carling, P. A.

    2009-12-01

    . However, both simulated time series exhibit quasi-periodic oscillations about these means. The Mekong’s flow regime is controlled by variations in meltwater regime, the intensity of the SE Asian monsoon, and the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones that penetrate inland from the South China Sea. Since melt contributes only to (non-erosive) base flows, variability in glacier and snow melt contributions from Himalayan source areas are unlikely to significantly impact inter-annual variations in river bank erosion. However, inter-annual variability in the SE Asian monsoon and tropical cyclone dynamics may both be related, albeit in a complex manner, to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Cross-wavelet transform and wavelet coherence analyses indicate statistically significant (at 95% limit) coherence between ENSO and simulated river bank erosion, but at both sites only since about 1980. During this recent period the ENSO and fluvial erosion time series are in anti-phase; that is ENSO cold phases are associated with enhanced rates of river bank erosion. This is as expected, since ENSO cold phases are associated with earlier onset and enhanced intensity of the monsoon, while the number of intense tropical storm systems making landfall over Vietnam and moving across the Lower Mekong Basin is also higher.

  14. Data Assimilation Into a Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Model: Application to the 1997-1998 El Nino

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, Tong

    1999-01-01

    As part of JPL's ocean data assimilation effort to study ocean circulation and seasonal-interannual climate variability, sea level anomaly observed by TOPEX altimeter, together with sea surface temperature and wind stress data, are assimilated into a simple coupled ocean atmosphere model of the tropical Pacific. Model-data consistency is examined. Impact of the assimilation (as initialization) on El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts is evaluated. The coupled model consists of a shallow water component with two baroclinic modes, an Ekman shear layer, a simplified mixed-layer temperature equation, and a statistical atmosphere based on dominant correlations between historical surface temperature and wind stress anomaly data. The adjoins method is used to fit the coupled model to the data over various six-month periods from late 1996 to early 1998 by optimally adjusting the initial state, model parameters, and basis functions of the statistical atmosphere. On average, the coupled model can be fitted to the data to approximately within the data and representation errors (5 cm, 0.5 C, and 10 sq m/sq m for sea level, surface temperature, and pseudo wind stress anomalies, respectively). The estimated fields resemble observed spatio-temporal structure reasonably well. Hindcasts/forecasts of the 1997/1998 El Nino initialized from forced estimated ocean states and parameters are much more realistic than those simply initialized from ocean states (see figure below). In particular, the ability of the model to produce significant warming beyond the initial state is dramatically improved. Parameter estimation, which compensates for some model errors, is found to be important to obtaining better fits of the model to data and to improving forecasts.

  15. El Nino's Family Tree (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Philander, S. G.

    2013-12-01

    Fluctuations in tropical Pacific rainfall and sea surface temperature (SST) patterns involve different processes on different timescales, but nonetheless have certain features (traits) in common so that all can be viewed as members of the same family. Best-known are the children El Niño and La Niña who, in their performance of the Southern Oscillation, move warm surface waters adiabatically back and forth across the Pacific. They and their nephews and nieces in the Atlantic and Indian Ocean all depend on favorable background conditions, especially a suitable depth for the thermocline whose tilt they oscillate to produce SST changes. The parents El Padre and La Madre are in control of that depth and invoke diabatic processes to change it gradually over the course of decades, at times making it so deep that El Niño becomes permanent. This is the spontaneous, natural branch of the family. Another branch responds to external forcing (externally imposed variations in sunlight) and has as members the cycles of the seasons, of obliquity, and of the precession of the equinoxes. These cousins, aunts and uncles of El Niño are protagonists in the drama of the recurrent Ice Ages.

  16. Review article. Studying climate effects on ecology through the use of climate indices: the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño Southern Oscillation and beyond.

    PubMed

    Stenseth, Nils Chr; Ottersen, Geir; Hurrell, James W; Mysterud, Atle; Lima, Mauricio; Chan, Kung-Sik; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Adlandsvik, Bjørn

    2003-10-22

    Whereas the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects weather and climate variability worldwide, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) represents the dominant climate pattern in the North Atlantic region. Both climate systems have been demonstrated to considerably influence ecological processes. Several other large-scale climate patterns also exist. Although less well known outside the field of climatology, these patterns are also likely to be of ecological interest. We provide an overview of these climate patterns within the context of the ecological effects of climate variability. The application of climate indices by definition reduces complex space and time variability into simple measures, 'packages of weather'. The disadvantages of using global climate indices are all related to the fact that another level of problems are added to the ecology-climate interface, namely the link between global climate indices and local climate. We identify issues related to: (i) spatial variation; (ii) seasonality; (iii) non-stationarity; (iv) nonlinearity; and (v) lack of correlation in the relationship between global and local climate. The main advantages of using global climate indices are: (i) biological effects may be related more strongly to global indices than to any single local climate variable; (ii) it helps to avoid problems of model selection; (iii) it opens the possibility for ecologists to make predictions; and (iv) they are typically readily available on Internet. PMID:14561270

  17. Combined effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation on global land dry-wet changes.

    PubMed

    Wang, Shanshan; Huang, Jianping; He, Yongli; Guan, Yuping

    2014-01-01

    The effects of natural variability, especially El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects, have been the focus of several recent studies on the change of drought patterns with climate change. The interannual relationship between ENSO and the global climate is not stationary and can be modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). However, the global land distribution of the dry-wet changes associated with the combination of ENSO and the PDO remains unclear. In the present study, this is investigated using a revised Palmer Drought Severity Index dataset (sc_PDSI_pm). We find that the effect of ENSO on dry-wet changes varies with the PDO phase. When in phase with the PDO, ENSO-induced dry-wet changes are magnified with respect to the canonical pattern. When out of phase, these dry-wet variations weaken or even disappear. This remarkable contrast in ENSO's influence between the two phases of the PDO highlights exciting new avenues for obtaining improved global climate predictions. In recent decades, the PDO has turned negative with more La Niña events, implying more rain and flooding over land. La Niña-induced wet areas become wetter and the dry areas become drier and smaller due to the effects of the cold PDO phase. PMID:25323549

  18. El Nino winners and losers declared

    SciTech Connect

    Kerr, R.A.

    1991-03-08

    Last spring human forecasters thought they saw signs of an imminent warming of the tropical Pacific, a classic El Nino, that could wreak havoc with weather around the globe. Researchers running computer models, on the other hand, saw a slight warming but not enough for an El Nino. The modelers were right. The season for El Ninos has ended and nothing happened. Since the models came online about 5 years ago, there have been two contests to predict El Ninos, which occur every 3 to 7 years, and the models have won both. The models are still experimental, but the general feeling is that they're indicating the right trends. The prospect of having reliable El Nino prediction models is good news beyond the small coterie of tropical Pacific specialists. Worldwide weather patterns are closely tied to El Nino cycles.

  19. El Nino-like events during Miocene

    SciTech Connect

    Casey, R.E.; Nelson, C.O.; Weinheimer, A.L.; Oeth, P.A.; Swanson, R.J.

    1988-03-01

    El Nino-like events have been recorded from the Miocene laminated siliceous facies of the Monterey Formation. These El Nino-like Miocene events are compared to El Nino events recorded from Holocene varved sediments deposited within the anoxic Santa Barbara basin. Strong El Nino events can be recognized from Holocene Santa Barbara basin sediments by increases in radiolarian flux to the sea floor during those events. For the last 100-plus years, frequency of strong El Ninos has been on the order of one extremely strong event about every 100 years, and one easily recognizable event about every 18 years. Frequencies in the laminated (varved) Miocene range from about every 4-5 years to over 20 years. The higher frequencies occur within generally warm intervals and the lower frequencies within generally cold intervals. Perhaps the frequencies of these events may, in fact, be an important indicator in determining whether the intervals were cold or warm. Reconstructions of the paleo-California Current system during El Nino-like periods have been made for the west coast from the Gulf of California to northern California. Strong El Nino-like events occurred 5.5 and 8 Ma, and a strong anti-El Nino-like event occurred at about 6.5 Ma. Evidence from the 5.5 and 8 Ma events combined with other evidence suggests that modern El Ninos, similar to today's, were initiated at 5.5 Ma or earlier.

  20. El Niño-Southern Oscillation influence on winter maximum daily precipitation in California in a spatial model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shang, Hongwei; Yan, Jun; Zhang, Xuebin

    2011-11-01

    Recent studies have found that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has statistically significant influences on extreme precipitation. A limitation of most existing work is that a separate generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is fitted for each individual site. Such models cannot address important questions that involve events jointly defined across multiple sites; for instance, what is the probability that the 50 year return levels of three sites in the vicinity of a city occur in the same season? With the latest statistical methodology for spatial extremes, we fit max-stable process models to winter maximum daily precipitation of 192 sites in California over 55 years. A composite likelihood approach is used since the full likelihood is unavailable either analytically or numerically. In addition to latitude, longitude, and elevation, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is incorporated into the parameters of the marginal GEV models. We find that, in a spatial context, the ENSO has a significant influence on the extreme precipitation in California by shifting the location parameter of the GEV distributions, with higher values of the SOI corresponding to lower maximum winter daily precipitation. The joint spatial model is used to assess risks concerning joint extremal events at network of sites with spatial dependence properly accounted for. The probability of extremal events occurring at multiple sites in the same season is found to be much higher than what would be expected under the independence assumption.

  1. Reconstruction of the El Nino attractor with neural networks

    SciTech Connect

    Grieger, B.; Latif, M.

    1994-09-01

    Based on a combined data set of sea surface temperature, zonal surface wind stress and upper ocean heat content the dynamics of the El Nino phenomenon is investigated. In a reduced phase space spanned by the first four EOFs two different stochastic models are estimated from the data. A nonlinear model represented by a simulated neural network is compared with a linear model obtained with the principal oscillation pattern (POP) analysis. While the linear model is limited to damped oscillations onto a fix point attractor, the nonlinear model recovers a limit cycle attractor. This indicates that the real system is located above the bifurcation point in parameter space supporting self-sustained oscillations. The results are discussed with respect to consistency with current theory. 21 refs., 10 figs.

  2. Relationships between El Niño-Southern Oscillation and nitrogen concentrations in a Western Mediterranean river

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sigro, J.; Vegas-Vilarrúbia, T.; Giralt, S.; Brunet, M.

    2010-05-01

    El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominating mode of interannual climate variability at global scale (Brönnimann, 2007). ENSO extreme negative and positive phases can significantly influence on climatic conditions in Europe, affecting precipitation mainly in spring and autumn (Mariotti et al., 2002; Moron and Ward 1998), but also during winter (Brönnimann et al., 2007; Pozo-Vázquez et al., 2005). Over the Iberian Peninsula (IP), ENSO teleconnections can modulate the frequency and intensity of precipitation (Brunet and López, 1991; Rodó et al., 1997; Rodríguez-Puebla et al., 1998), with a time-lag between the ENSO and its effect on precipitation ranging from 3 to 21 months (Rodó et al., 1997). Large areas of the IP are also affected by severe droughts during the final months of La Niña years and the initial months of the following year, while other areas are affected by dry conditions during the first months of El Niño years, as well as during the summers and autumns of the following year (Muñoz-Diaz and Rodrigo, 2005; Vicente-Serrano, 2005). Here we explore the possibility that nitrate concentration in the Llobregat River (North-eastern Spain) is influenced by ENSO events, which are modulating precipitation variability over the Western Mediterranean basin. The Southern Oscillation Index during La Niña years, the self-calibrating Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (van der Schrier et al., 2006; Wells et al., 2004), and nitrate concentrations were significantly correlated on a seasonal basis in the Llobregat River, with both drought and nitrate concentrations increasing during positive ENSO phases. Our hypothesis is that initially unusual within-stream nitrate increases would take place, owing to higher-than-normal evaporation from the river. During drought periods, the hydrological deficit favours nitrate accumulation in the catchment's soils and, thus, a decline in allochthonous inputs to the river water would be expectable. Besides, on the late

  3. Variation of tropical cyclone activity in the South Indian Ocean: El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Madden-Julian Oscillation effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ho, Chang-Hoi; Kim, Joo-Hong; Jeong, Jee-Hoon; Kim, Hyeong-Seog; Chen, Deliang

    2006-11-01

    The present study examines variation of tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the South Indian Ocean (SIO) during TC seasons (December-March) for the period 1979-2004. The impact of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the variation is revealed through a composite analysis. During El Niño periods TC genesis was shifted westward, enhancing the formation west of 75°E and reducing it east of 75°E. These changes in the genesis correspond to a westward shift of convection. It may be explained by a remote effect on the SIO; that is, the increase in sea surface temperature in the central eastern Pacific alters the Walker circulation and forms an anomalous anticyclonic circulation in the east SIO during El Niño. The spatial difference in TC passages between El Niño and La Niña shows a significant decrease to the southeast of Madagascar but a moderate increase in the central midlatitude SIO, indicating that TCs move farther east during El Niño. This change is possibly due to the anomalous southwesterlies east of Madagascar. Variation of TC activity also depends on various MJO phases: frequent TC passages for phases 2-4 (strong convective activity straddles along the equatorial Indian Ocean) versus infrequent TC passages for other phases. TC tracks tend to be more south oriented in phase 3 compared with those in phases 2 and 4. This is possibly caused by the increased steering northerlies which are a part of the anticyclonic Rossby wave of Gill type in response to the suppressed MJO-related convection in the maritime continent.

  4. The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation on mean and extreme values of column ozone over the United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petropavlovskikh, I.; Evans, R.; McConville, G.; Manney, G. L.; Rieder, H. E.

    2015-02-01

    Continuous measurements of total ozone (by Dobson spectrophotometers) across the contiguous United States began in the early 1960s. Here, we analyze temporal and spatial variability and trends in total ozone from the five US sites with long-term records. While similar long-term ozone changes are detected at all five sites, we find differences in the patterns of ozone variability on shorter timescales. In addition to standard evaluation techniques, STL-decomposition methods (Seasonal Trend decomposition of time series based on LOESS (LOcally wEighted Scatterplot Smoothing)) are used to address temporal variability and "fingerprints" of dynamical features in the Dobson data. Methods from statistical extreme value theory (EVT) are used to characterize days with high and low total ozone (termed EHOs and ELOs, respectively) at each station and to analyze temporal changes in the frequency of ozone extremes and their relationship to dynamical features such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation. A comparison of the fingerprints detected in the frequency distribution of the extremes with those for standard metrics (i.e., the mean) shows that more fingerprints are found for the extremes, particularly for the positive phase of the NAO, at all five US monitoring sites. Results from the STL decomposition support the findings of the EVT analysis. Finally, we analyze the relative influence of low- and high-ozone events on seasonal mean column ozone at each station. The results show that the influence of ELOs and EHOs on seasonal mean column ozone can be as much as ±5 %, about as large as the overall long-term decadal ozone trends.

  5. The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation on mean and extreme values of column ozone over the United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petropavlovskikh, I.; Evans, R.; McConville, G.; Manney, G. L.; Rieder, H. E.

    2014-08-01

    Continuous measurements of total ozone (by Dobson spectrophotometers) across the contiguous United States (US) began in the early 1960s. Here, we analyze temporal and spatial variability and trends in total ozone from the five US sites with long-term records. While similar long-term ozone changes are detected at all five sites, we find differences in the patterns of ozone variability on shorter time scales. In addition to standard evaluation techniques, STL-decomposition methods (Seasonal Trend decomposition of time series based on LOcally wEighted Scatterplot Smoothing, LOESS) are used to address temporal variability and trends in the Dobson data. The LOESS-smoothed trend components show a decline of total ozone between the 1970s and 2000s and a "stabilization" at lower levels in recent years, which is also confirmed by linear trend analysis. Methods from statistical extreme value theory (EVT) are used to characterize days with high and low total ozone (termed EHOs and ELOs, respectively) at each station and to analyze temporal changes in the frequency of ozone extremes and their relationship to dynamical features such as the North Atlantic Oscillation and El Niño Southern Oscillation. A comparison of the "fingerprints" detected in the frequency distribution of the extremes with those for standard metrics (i.e., the mean) shows that more "fingerprints" are found for the extremes, particularly for the positive phase of the NAO, at all five US monitoring sites. Results from the STL-decomposition support the findings of the EVT analysis. Finally, we analyze the relative influence of low and high ozone events on seasonal mean column ozone at each station. The results show that the influence of ELOs and EHOs on seasonal mean column ozone can be as much as ±5%, or about twice as large as the overall long-term decadal ozone trends.

  6. Effects of climate warming, North Atlantic Oscillation, and El Niño-Southern Oscillation on thermal conditions and plankton dynamics in northern hemispheric lakes.

    PubMed

    Gerten, Dieter; Adrian, Rita

    2002-03-01

    Impacts of climate warming on freshwater ecosystems have been documented recently for a variety of sites around the globe. Here we provide a review of studies that report long-term (multidecadal) effects of warming trends on thermal properties and plankton dynamics in northern hemispheric lakes. We show that higher lake temperatures, shorter periods with ice cover, and shorter stagnation periods were common trends for lakes across the hemisphere in response to the warmer conditions. Only for shallow dimictic lakes was it observed that deep-water temperatures decreased. Moreover, it became evident that phytoplankton dynamics and primary productivity altered in conjunction with changes in lake physics. Algal spring blooms developed early and were more pronounced in several European lakes after mild winters with short ice cover periods, and primary productivity increased in North American lakes. Effects of elevated temperatures on zooplankton communities were seen in an early development of various species and groups, as is documented for cladocerans, copepods, and rotifers in European lakes. Furthermore, thermophile species reached higher abundance in warmer years. Obviously, the nature of responses is species specific, and depends on the detailed seasonal patterning of warming. Complex responses such as effects propagating across trophic levels are likely, indicating that observed climate-ecosystem relationships are not generally applicable. Nonetheless, the picture emerges that climate-driven changes in freshwater ecosystems may be synchronised to a certain extent among lakes even over great distances if climatic influences are not masked by anthropogenic impacts or differences in lake morphology. Macro-scale climatic fluctuations--such as the North Atlantic Oscillation or the El Niño-Southern Oscillation--were identified as the most important candidates responsible for such coherence, with the former predominating in Europe and the latter in North America. We

  7. Geosat-derived sea level and surface current anomalies in the equatorial Pacific during the 1986-1989 El Nino and La Nina

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Delcroix, Thierry; Boulanger, Jean-Philippe; Masia, F.; Menkes, C.

    1994-01-01

    Equatorial wave dynamics are essential in most oceanic models for reproducing aspects of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Observational evidence of first baroclinic equatorial Kelvin and first symmetric meridional Rossby waves is found in Geosat-derived sea level anomalies (SLA) and surface zonal current anomalies (ZCA) in the equatorial Pacific ocean during the 1986-1987 El Nino and the ensuing 1988-1989 La Nina. This was made possible after extensive quality control and specific processing of the recently improved Geosat geophysical data records pertaining to the 17-day Exact Repeat Mission. In particular, the processing was made so that the Geosat-derived ZCA best fit near-surface zonal currents from three equatorial moorings at 165 deg E, 140 deg W, and 110 deg W. The Geosat-derived SLA and ZCA are decomposed into first baroclinic equatorial Kelvin and gravest Rossby modes. The emphasis is then put on the chronology of the ZCA at the equator where the currents are the most energetic and where Kelvin and first symmetric Rossby waves explain most of the variance in ZCA, in similar proportion. The 1986-1987 El Nino is mostly characterized by a strong downwelling Kelvin wave in December 1986, a series of downwelling Kelvin waves in March-October 1987, and a strong upwelling Rossby wave in March-September 1987. These waves are consistent with wind forcing, and all give rise to notable eastward ZCA for almost an entire year. During El Nino-La Nina transition period there is the occurrence of two downwelling Rossby waves originating from the eastern Pacific at times of favorable wind forcing. These Rossby waves switch the basin-wide ZCA from eastward to westward, terminating the warm event. Then, the 1988-1989 La Nina shows the generation of a series of upwelling Kelvin waves which are clearly identified in March/April and September/October 1988. These upwelling Kelvin waves are apparently related to the enhencement of the trade wind in the western

  8. The influence of different El Nino flavours on global average tempeature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donner, S. D.; Banholzer, S. P.

    2014-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation is known to influence surface temperatures worldwide. El Niño conditions are thought to lead to anomalously warm global average surface temperature, absent other forcings. Recent research has identified distinct possible types or flavours of El Niño events, based on the location of peak sea surface temperature anomalies and other variables. Here we analyze the relationship between the type of El Niño event and the global surface average temperature anomaly, using three historical temperature data sets. Separating El Niño events into types or flavours reveals that the global average surface temperatures are anomalously warm during and after canonical eastern Pacific El Niño events or "super" El Ninos. However, the global average surface temperatures during and after central Pacific or "mixed" events, like the 2002-3 event, are not statistically distinct from that of neutral or other years. Historical analysis indicated that slowdowns in the rate of global surface warming since the late 1800s may be related to decadal variability in the frequency of different types of El Niño events.

  9. The 1982-1983 El Nino Atlas: Nimbus-7 microwave radiometer data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liu, W. Timothy

    1987-01-01

    Monthly maps of sea surface temperature, atmospheric water vapor, and surface level wind speed as measured by the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) on the Nimbus-7 satellite for the tropical Pacific from June 1982 to October 1983, during one of the most intense El Nino Southern Oscillations (ENSO) episodes, are presented. The non-ENSO annual cycle was compiled by averaging the 1980 and 1981 data for each calendar month and was removed from monthly fields of 1982 and 1983 to reveal the anomalous distributions. The anomaly fields and part of the non-ENSO annual cycle are also presented. This study and earlier evaluations demonstrate that the Nimbus/SMMR can be used to monitor large scale and low frequency variabilities in the tropical ocean. The SMMR data support and extend conventional measurements. The variabilities of the three parameters are found to represent various aspects of ENSO related through ocean atmosphere interaction. Their simultaneous and quantitative descriptions pave the way for the derivation of ocean atmosphere latent heat exchange and further the understanding of the coupled atmospheric and oceanic thermodynamics.

  10. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)–pandemic Influenza connection: Coincident or causal?

    PubMed Central

    Shaman, Jeffrey; Lipsitch, Marc

    2013-01-01

    We find that the four most recent human influenza pandemics (1918, 1957, 1968, and 2009), all of which were first identified in boreal spring or summer, were preceded by La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific. Changes in the phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation have been shown to alter the migration, stopover time, fitness, and interspecies mixing of migratory birds, and consequently, likely affect their mixing with domestic animals. We hypothesize that La Niña conditions bring divergent influenza subtypes together in some parts of the world and favor the reassortment of influenza through simultaneous multiple infection of individual hosts and the generation of novel pandemic strains. We propose approaches to test this hypothesis using influenza population genetics, virus prevalence in various host species, and avian migration patterns. PMID:22308322

  11. Reconstruction of El Niño Southern Oscillation using data from ships' logbooks, 1750-1855

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barrett, Hannah; Jones, Julie; Bigg, Grant

    2016-04-01

    The logbooks from ships which historically travelled the World's oceans contain a vast amount of meteorological information useful for studies of historical climate. They provide daily, marine-based weather observations from the pre-instrumental era. The Climatological Database for the World's Oceans (CLIWOC) and digitised English East India Company (EEIC) logbooks have been used to investigate the climate during the period 1750-1855. A statistical-based reconstruction of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been carried out using these databases, focusing on observations from the Indo-Pacific region. The coherency between previous ENSO reconstructions and this new, logbook ENSO reconstruction has been assessed. By uncovering the potential uses of ships' logbook data, and establishing methodologies to reconstruct climate indices, it is hoped that further efforts will be made to digitise ship logbook. Further digitisation would make this unique data source even more valuable to historical climatology.

  12. The association between El Niño/Southern Oscillation events and typhoons in the Marshall Islands.

    PubMed

    Spennemann, D H; Marschner, I C

    1995-09-01

    An analysis of the historic record of typhoons in the Marshall Islands has identified a significant association between the occurrence of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO) and the occurrence of typhoons in the Marshall Islands. Whilst typhoons normally occur further to the east, the warming of the ocean waters around the Marshall Islands, as part of the ENSO phenomenon, generates typhoons further to the west. The results suggest that typhoons are 2.6 times more likely to occur during ENSO years, with a 71 per cent chance of a typhoon striking during an ENSO year, and only a 26 per cent chance of one happening during a non-ENSO year. This has implications for planning and public safety, which the relevant authorities may wish to take note of. PMID:7552109

  13. Forecasting Andean rainfall and crop yield from the influence of El Nino on Pleiades visibility

    PubMed

    Orlove; Chiang; Cane

    2000-01-01

    Farmers in drought-prone regions of Andean South America have historically made observations of changes in the apparent brightness of stars in the Pleiades around the time of the southern winter solstice in order to forecast interannual variations in summer rainfall and in autumn harvests. They moderate the effect of reduced rainfall by adjusting the planting dates of potatoes, their most important crop. Here we use data on cloud cover and water vapour from satellite imagery, agronomic data from the Andean altiplano and an index of El Nino variability to analyse this forecasting method. We find that poor visibility of the Pleiades in June-caused by an increase in subvisual high cirrus clouds-is indicative of an El Nino year, which is usually linked to reduced rainfall during the growing season several months later. Our results suggest that this centuries-old method of seasonal rainfall forecasting may be based on a simple indicator of El Nino variability. PMID:10638752

  14. Using transfer functions to quantify El Niño Southern Oscillation dynamics in data and models

    PubMed Central

    MacMartin, Douglas G.; Tziperman, Eli

    2014-01-01

    Transfer function tools commonly used in engineering control analysis can be used to better understand the dynamics of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), compare data with models and identify systematic model errors. The transfer function describes the frequency-dependent input–output relationship between any pair of causally related variables, and can be estimated from time series. This can be used first to assess whether the underlying relationship is or is not frequency dependent, and if so, to diagnose the underlying differential equations that relate the variables, and hence describe the dynamics of individual subsystem processes relevant to ENSO. Estimating process parameters allows the identification of compensating model errors that may lead to a seemingly realistic simulation in spite of incorrect model physics. This tool is applied here to the TAO array ocean data, the GFDL-CM2.1 and CCSM4 general circulation models, and to the Cane–Zebiak ENSO model. The delayed oscillator description is used to motivate a few relevant processes involved in the dynamics, although any other ENSO mechanism could be used instead. We identify several differences in the processes between the models and data that may be useful for model improvement. The transfer function methodology is also useful in understanding the dynamics and evaluating models of other climate processes. PMID:25197250

  15. El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences on monthly NO3 load and concentration, stream flow and precipitation in the Little River Watershed, Tifton, GA

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    As climate variability increases, it is becoming increasingly critical to find predictable patterns that can still be identified despite overall uncertainty. The El-Niño/Southern Oscillation is one such pattern; a climate phenomenon with global effects on weather, hydrology, ecology and human health...

  16. Centennial-scale vegetation and North Atlantic Oscillation changes during the Late Holocene in the southern Iberia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramos-Román, M. J.; Jiménez-Moreno, G.; Anderson, R. S.; García-Alix, A.; Toney, J. L.; Jiménez-Espejo, F. J.; Carrión, J. S.

    2016-07-01

    High-reso CE to lution pollen analysis, charcoal, non-pollen palynomorphs and magnetic susceptibility have been analyzed in the sediment record of a peat bog in Sierra Nevada in southern Iberia. The study of these proxies provided the reconstruction of vegetation, climate, fire and human activity of the last ∼4500 cal yr BP. A progressive trend towards aridification during the late Holocene is observed in this record. This trend is interrupted by millennial- and centennial-scale variability of relatively more humid and arid periods. Arid conditions are recorded between ∼4000 and 3100 cal yr BP, being characterized by a decline in arboreal pollen and with a spike in magnetic susceptibility. This is followed by a relatively humid period from ∼3100 to 1600 cal yr BP, coinciding partially with the Iberian-Roman Humid Period, and is indicated by the increase of Pinus and the decrease in xerophytic taxa. The last 1500 cal yr BP are characterized by several centennial-scale climatic oscillations. Generally arid conditions from ∼450 to 1300 CE, depicted by a decrease in Pinus and an increase in Artemisia, comprise the Dark Ages and the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Since ∼ 1300 to 1850 CE pronounced oscillations occur between relatively humid and arid conditions. Four periods depicted by relatively higher Pinus coinciding with the beginning and end of the Little Ice Age are interrupted by three arid events characterized by an increase in Artemisia. These alternating arid and humid shifts could be explained by centennial-scale changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation and solar activity.

  17. Field-Aligned Currents in Saturn's Southern Nightside Magnetosphere: Sub-Corotation and Planetary Period Oscillation Currents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hunt, G. J.; Cowley, S. W. H.; Provan, G.; Bunce, E. J.; Alexeev, I. I.; Belenkaya, E. S.; Kalegaev, V. V.; Dougherty, M. K.; Coates, A. J.

    2014-12-01

    We have investigated azimuthal magnetic field data showing the presence of field-aligned current sheets on 31 similar Cassini passes during the 2008 interval of near polar orbits across Saturn's southern post-midnight auroral region at radial distances ~3-5 RS. The currents are found to be strongly modulated in magnitude, form, and position by the phase of the southern planetary period oscillations (PPOs). We separate currents independent of PPO phase from PPO-related currents, by exploiting the expected anti-symmetry of the latter with respect to PPO phase. The PPO-independent current system is thought to be associated mainly with sub-corotation of magnetospheric plasma, and consists of a weak distributed downward current over the whole polar region, enhanced downward currents in a layer mapping to the outer magnetosphere where the ionospheric conductivity is elevated, and a main upward-directed current layer ~2° wide centered at ~18° co-latitude with respect to the southern pole carrying ~2.5 MA per radian of azimuth. The latter current maps to the main region of the hot plasma in Saturn's magnetosphere and is co-located with Saturn's main UV oval in this hemisphere and local time sector. No major currents are detected mapping to the inner equatorial magnetosphere ~4-8 RS dominated by cool Enceladus plasma. The PPO-related currents map to the inner part of the hot plasma region at ~18°-20° co-latitude, and carry rotating upward and downward currents peaking at ~1.7 MA rad-1. The co-latitude of the current layers is also modulated by 1° amplitude in the PPO cycle, with maximum equatorward and poleward excursions adjacent to maximum upward and downward PPO currents, respectively. It is shown that this phasing requires the current system to be driven upward from the planetary atmosphere rather than downward from the magnetosphere.

  18. Differential modulation of eastern oyster ( Crassostrea virginica) disease parasites by the El-Niño-Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Soniat, Thomas M.; Hofmann, Eileen E.; Klinck, John M.; Powell, Eric N.

    2009-02-01

    The eastern oyster ( Crassostrea virginica) is affected by two protozoan parasites, Perkinsus marinus which causes Dermo disease and Haplosporidium nelsoni which causes MSX (Multinucleated Sphere Unknown) disease. Both diseases are largely controlled by water temperature and salinity and thus are potentially sensitive to climate variations resulting from the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which influences climate along the Gulf of Mexico coast, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which influences climate along the Atlantic coast of the United States. In this study, a 10-year time series of temperature and salinity and P. marinus infection intensity for a site in Louisiana on the Gulf of Mexico coast and a 52-year time series of air temperature and freshwater inflow and oyster mortality from Delaware Bay on the Atlantic coast of the United States were analyzed to determine patterns in disease and disease-induced mortality in C. virginica populations that resulted from ENSO and NAO climate variations. Wavelet analysis was used to decompose the environmental, disease infection intensity and oyster mortality time series into a time-frequency space to determine the dominant modes of variability and the time variability of the modes. For the Louisiana site, salinity and Dermo disease infection intensity are correlated at a periodicity of 4 years, which corresponds to ENSO. The influence of ENSO on Dermo disease along the Gulf of Mexico is through its effect on salinity, with high salinity, which occurs during the La Niña phase of ENSO at this location, favoring parasite proliferation. For the Delaware Bay site, the primary correlation was between temperature and oyster mortality, with a periodicity of 8 years, which corresponds to the NAO. Warmer temperatures, which occur during the positive phase of the NAO, favor the parasites causing increased oyster mortality. Thus, disease prevalence and intensity in C. virginica populations along the Gulf of Mexico

  19. Possible impacts of mega-El Niño/Southern Oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation on Eurasian heat wave frequency variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Yefan; Wu, Zhiwei

    2016-04-01

    Identifying predictability sources of heat wave variations is a scientific challenge and of practical importance. This study investigates the summertime heat wave frequency (HWF) over Eurasia for 19502014. The Eurasian HWF is dominated by two distinct modes: the interdecadal (ID) mode featured by an increasing pattern overall, centered around eastern Europe-central Asia and Mongolia-southwestern China; the interannual (IA) mode resembling a tri-pole anomaly pattern with three centers over western-northern Europe, northeastern Asia and East Asia. The ID mode is found to be influenced by mega-El Niño/Southern Oscillation (mega-ENSO) and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), and the latter has far more effect, whereas the IA mode is connected with mega-ENSO. Further analysis suggests that mega-ENSO variations can incite a Gill-type response spreading to Eurasia, while the AMO changes cause eastward-propagating Rossby wave trains toward Eurasia. These two teleconnection patterns together contribute to the large-scale circulation anomalies of the ID mode, and those related to the IA mode arise from the teleconnection pattern excited by mega-ENSO. A strong mega-ENSO triggers subsidence with high pressure anomalies, warms the surface and increases the HWF significantly over northeastern Asia particularly. Likewise, the warm AMO-induced circulation anomalies engender surface radiative heating and HWF growth in most of Eurasian continent except some localized Siberian and Asian regions. The situation is opposite for a weak mega-ENSO and AMO. Those models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) which realistically capture the features of the ID mode can reproduce the AMO-like sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), while signals resembling mega-ENSO are found in those with favorable capability of simulating the IA mode. On the contrary, these relevant SSTAs linked to the respective modes vanish in the models with little skills. Thus

  20. Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature variability and its relation to El Niño-Southern Oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Enfield, David B.; Mayer, Dennis A.

    1997-01-01

    Past analyses of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature variability have suggested a dipole behavior between the northern and southern tropics, across the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). By analyzing an improved 43-year (1950-1992) record of SST [Smith et al, 1996] and other data derived from the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS), it is shown that the regions north and south of the ITCZ are statistically independent of each other at the seasonal to interannual timescales dominating the data, confirming the conclusions of Houghton and Tourre [1992]. Some dipole behavior does develop weakly during the boreal spring season, when there is a tendency for SST anomaly west of Angola to be opposite of that in the tropical North Atlantic. It is further shown that tropical Atlantic SST variability is correlated with Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability in several regions. The major region affected is the North Atlantic area of NE trades west of 40°W along 10°N-20°N and extending into the Caribbean. There, about 50-80% of the anomalous SST variability is associated with the Pacific ENSO, with Atlantic warmings occurring 4-5 months after the mature phases of Pacific warm events. An analysis of local surface flux fields derived from COADS data shows that the ENSO-related Atlantic warmings occur as a result of reductions in the surface NE trade wind speeds, which in turn reduce latent and sensible heat losses over the region in question, as well as cooling due to entrainment. This ENSO connection is best developed during the boreal spring following the most frequent season of maximum ENSO anomalies in the Pacific. A region of secondary covariability with ENSO occurs along the northern edge of the mean ITCZ position and appears to be associated with northward migrations of the ITCZ when the North Atlantic warmings occur. Although easterly winds are intensified in the western equatorial Atlantic in response to Pacific warm events

  1. Variability of Madden Julian Oscillations (MJO) observed over southern India using radiosonde observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leena, P. P.; Ratnam, M. Venkat; Krishna Murthy, B. V.; Bhaskara Rao, S. Vijaya

    2016-05-01

    In the present work, characteristics of 30-50 day oscillations (referred to as the MJO) in tropospheric and lower stratospheric wind and temperature have been studied using long-term high resolution radiosonde observations at a tropical station, Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E) for the period 2006-2012. Wind and temperature perturbations showed clear features of the MJO with higher amplitudes between 10 and 18 km altitude. Interestingly, the MJO signal is confined vertically to different altitudes in different seasons. Variability in the perturbations of wind and temperature similar to that of outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) with a few cases showing an out of phase relation. The amplitudes of these oscillations are larger in the winter and pre-monsoon seasons than in the monsoon season where the largest amplitudes are confined below the Tropical Easterly Jet (~16 km). There also exists a large inter-annual variability in the MJO. Spatio-temporal variability of OLR not only showed the features of the MJO but also northward and eastward propagation in the monsoons and winter seasons, respectively, in a few cases. It is found that convection leads the MJO in the zonal wind by 8-12 days in all the seasons except in winter. One intriguing result observed is the vitiation of the MJO pattern by the presence of strong wind shears during monsoon season. We expect this study would be helpful in representing the MJO features in the vertical in the general circulation models (GCMs) which is still a major challenge.

  2. El Nino and the Teacher at Sea.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Kerry Anne

    1998-01-01

    Details the experiences of a teacher who spent a month on a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) ship. Reports observations of developing El Nino conditions and presents related classroom activities. (DDR)

  3. Relationships between the Maritime Continent Heat Source and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation Phenomenon.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McBride, John L.; Haylock, Malcolm R.; Nicholls, Neville

    2003-09-01

    Various earlier studies have demonstrated that rainfall in the Maritime Continent-Indonesia region is strongly related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during the dry half of the year but has a very weak association with ENSO during the summer-wet season months. This relationship is investigated over a wider domain through the use of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data as a proxy for rainfall.Consistent with the hypothesis of Haylock and McBride, it is found that the large-scale structure of the low-order empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of OLR have a strong resemblance to the patterns of correlation between OLR and the Southern Oscillation index (SOI). This supports the hypothesis that the predictable component of rainfall is determined by the component that is spatially coherent, as quantified through EOF analysis.As was found earlier with rainfall, the region of largest correlation between interannual OLR anomalies and the SOI lies in the winter hemisphere. The predictable component of OLR (or rainfall) remains in the region of the Maritime Continent throughout the year and thus does not accompany the minimum OLR (maximum rainfall) during its annual interhemispheric progression as the major monsoon heat source.The sign of the OLR-SOI relationship is such that the Maritime Continent has increased rainfall during a La Niña or cold event. Patterns of correlation between sea surface temperature and the SOI show the existence of a region to the east of the Maritime Continent whereby sea surface temperature anomalies are positive during these (La Niña) conditions. This is in the sense of a direct relationship, that is, positive sea surface temperature anomalies corresponding to increased rainfall.The annual cycle of the sea surface temperature structure of ENSO is represented by the first EOF of the interannual sea surface temperature series for each separate calendar month. The region of the sea surface temperature anomaly giving the direct

  4. Multi-decadal variability and trends in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and tropical Pacific fisheries implications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harrison, D. E.; Chiodi, Andrew M.

    2015-03-01

    Extremes of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are known to have various socio-economic impacts, including effects on several Pacific fisheries. The 137-year-long record of Darwin sea-level pressure offers a uniquely long-term perspective on ENSO and provides important insight into various aspects of interannual to century-scale variability that affects these fisheries. One particular issue of interest is whether there is a centennial-scale (or longer) trend that can be expected to alter the future distributions of these fisheries. Since most tropical Pacific fishery records are no longer than a few decades, another issue is the extent to which trends over these recent decades are a good basis for detecting the presence of long-term (e.g., centennial-scale) deterministic changes, and perhaps thereby projecting future conditions. We find that the full 137-yr trend cannot be distinguished from zero with 95% confidence, and also that the ENSO variance in recent decades is very similar to that of the early decades of the record, suggesting that ENSO has not fundamentally changed over the period of large increase in atmospheric CO2. However, the strong multi-decadal variability in ENSO is reflected in decades with quite different levels of ENSO effects on the ecosystem. Many multi-decadal subsets of the full record have statistically significant trends, using standard analysis techniques. These multi-decadal trends are not; however, representative of the record-length trend, nor are they a useful basis for projecting conditions in subsequent decades. Trend statistical significance is not a robust foundation for speculation about the future. We illustrate how the difficulties involved in determining whether a trend is statistically significant or not mean that, even after careful consideration, an unexpectedly large number of trends may reach standard statistical significance levels over the time spans for which many newer records are available, but still not

  5. Climate variability and El Niño Southern Oscillation: implications for natural coastal resources and management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thatje, Sven; Heilmayer, Olaf; Laudien, Jürgen

    2008-03-01

    The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) significantly influences marine ecosystems and the sustained exploitation of marine resources in the coastal zone of the Humboldt Current upwelling system. Both its warm (El Niño: EN) and cold (La Niña: LN) phase have drastic implications for the ecology, socio-economy and infrastructure along most of Pacific South America. Local artisanal fisheries, which especially suffer from the effects of EN, represent a major part for the domestic economy of Chile and Peru and in consequence a huge amount of published and unpublished studies exists aiming at identifying effects of EN and LN. However, most processes and underlying mechanisms fostering the ecology of organisms along Pacific South America have not been analyzed yet and for the marine realm most knowledge is traditionally based on rather descriptive approaches. We herein advocate that small-scale comparative and interdisciplinary process studies work as one possible solution to understand better the variability observed in EN/LN effects at local scale. We propose that differences in small-scale impacts of ENSO along the coast rather than the macro-ecological and oceanographic view are essential for the sustainable management of costal ecosystems and the livelihood of the people depending on it. Based on this, we summarize the conceptual approach from the EU-funded International Science and Technology Cooperation (INCO) project “Climate variability and El Niño Southern Oscillation: Implications for Natural Coastal Resources and Management (CENSOR)” that aims at enhancing the detection, compilation, and understanding of EN and LN effects on the coastal zone and its natural resources. We promote a multidisciplinary avenue within present international funding schemes, with the intention to bridge the traditional gap between basic and applied coastal research. The long-term aim is an increased mitigation of harm caused by EN as well as a better use of beneficial effects

  6. Tempo of genetic diversification in southern African rodents: The role of Plio-Pleistocene climatic oscillations as drivers for speciation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Montgelard, Claudine; Matthee, Conrad A.

    2012-07-01

    The evolution of the southern African faunal assemblages is thought to have been largely influenced by climatic oscillations of the Plio-Pleistocene. These fluctuations presumably had a major impact in the form of vicariant diversification of taxa by causing simultaneous speciation/cladogenetic events due to habitat fragmentation. We aimed to test this hypothesis by comparing the timing of diversification observed for several rodent lineages with three peaks of aridification described at approximately 2.8, 1.7 and 1.0 Mya. Our study included nine rodent taxa (Nannomys, Aethomys, Otomys, Myotomys, Rhabdomys and Mastomys for the Muridae, Saccostomus for the Nesomyidae, Cryptomys for the Bathyergidae, and Xerus for the Sciuridae) that showed intrageneric mitochondrial cytochrome b cladogenesis during the last 5 Ma. Phylogenetic analysis performed with maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods supported the monophyly of all subgenera and genera. Most diversifications are also well supported and in agreement with previously published studies. Divergence dates between lineages were estimated using a Bayesian relaxed molecular clock and the 7 Myr split between different Apodemus species as well as the divergence between Tatera and Gerbillurus at 6.3 Myr were used as calibration points. Our results did not provide any convincing evidence of a correspondence between rodent diversification events and peaks in aridity during the Plio-Pleistocene. The nearly perfect linear correlation between cladogenesis and time, during the last 5 Myr, strongly suggests that the diversification of southern African rodent lineages is driven by complex interactions between different factors, including life history, climatic changes, and topographic barriers.

  7. El Niño-southern oscillation effect on a fire regime in northeastern Mexico has changed over time.

    PubMed

    Yocom, Larissa L; Fulé, Peter Z; Brown, Peter M; Cerano, Julian; Villanueva-Díaz, José; Falk, Donald A; Cornejo-Oviedo, Eladio

    2010-06-01

    The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate-forcing mechanism that has been shown to affect precipitation and the occurrence of wildfires in many parts of the world. In the southern United States and northern Mexico, warm events (El Niño) are associated with moist winter conditions and fewer fires, while cool events (La Niñia) tend to favor dry winters and more fires. We tested this relationship in a region of northeastern Mexico by characterizing the historical fire regime and climatic influences: Fire regimes were reconstructed from fire-scar samples collected from 100 trees in three high-elevation sites on Peña Nevada in southern Nuevo Le6n. The sites were approximately 25 ha each, and the site centers were approximately 1 km apart. The earliest recorded fire occurred in 1521 and the time period we used for analysis was 1645-1929. The sites were characterized by frequent surface fires before the 1920s. In the three sites, mean fire intervals ranged from 8.6 to 9.6 years (all fires) and 11.9 to 18.6 years (fires that scarred > or = 25% of recording trees). The per-tree mean fire return interval was 17 years, and all three sites burned in the same year seven times between 1774 and 1929. After 1929, fires were nearly eliminated in all sites, likely due to human causes. We found a temporal change in the association between ENSO events and fires; before the 1830s La Niña events were significantly associated with fire years, while after the 1830s this association was not significant. In 1998, when the most severe El Niño event of the past century occurred, the three sites experienced severe, stand-replacing fires that killed many trees that had survived multiple surface fires in the past. Prior to the 1830s, fires tended to occur during dry La Niña years, but since then both La Niña and El Niño have been associated with dry years in this region, especially during the last three decades. This result suggests that ENSO effects have changed over time in

  8. The associations between El Niño-Southern Oscillation and tropical South American climate in a regional climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McGlone, Dana; Vuille, Mathias

    2012-03-01

    High-resolution regional climate models (RCMs), run over a limited domain, are increasingly used to simulate seasonal to interannual climate variability over South America and to assess the spatiotemporal impact of future climate change under a variety of emission scenarios. These models often give a better spatiotemporal representation of climate at a regional scale; however, they are subject to errors introduced by the driving global models. Here we analyze two different simulations with the Hadley Centre Regional Climate Modeling System Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies (PRECIS) model over tropical South America. The two simulations cover the same 30 year period (1961-1990) but were forced with different lateral boundary conditions. The first simulation was forced with the Hadley Centre Atmospheric Model version 3 (baseline), and the second was forced with European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-analysis (ERA) data. Our results indicate that the ERA-forced simulation more accurately portrays seasonal temperature and precipitation, consistent with previous studies. Empirical orthogonal function and spatial regression analyses further indicate that the ERA-forced simulation more realistically simulates the El Niño-Southern Oscillation related fingerprint on interannual climate variability over South America during austral summer. The two gridded observational data sets used for model validation display large differences, which highlight significant uncertainties and errors in observational data sets over this region. In some instances the observational data quality is rivaled or even surpassed by the ERA-forced RCM results.

  9. Predicting stochastic systems by noise sampling, and application to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation

    PubMed Central

    Chekroun, Mickaël David; Kondrashov, Dmitri; Ghil, Michael

    2011-01-01

    Interannual and interdecadal prediction are major challenges of climate dynamics. In this article we develop a prediction method for climate processes that exhibit low-frequency variability (LFV). The method constructs a nonlinear stochastic model from past observations and estimates a path of the “weather” noise that drives this model over previous finite-time windows. The method has two steps: (i) select noise samples—or “snippets”—from the past noise, which have forced the system during short-time intervals that resemble the LFV phase just preceding the currently observed state; and (ii) use these snippets to drive the system from the current state into the future. The method is placed in the framework of pathwise linear-response theory and is then applied to an El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) model derived by the empirical model reduction (EMR) methodology; this nonlinear model has 40 coupled, slow, and fast variables. The domain of validity of this forecasting procedure depends on the nature of the system’s pathwise response; it is shown numerically that the ENSO model’s response is linear on interannual time scales. As a result, the method’s skill at a 6- to 16-month lead is highly competitive when compared with currently used dynamic and statistic prediction methods for the Niño-3 index and the global sea surface temperature field. PMID:21730171

  10. Is there a linkage between the tropical cyclone activity in the southern Indian Ocean and the Antarctic Oscillation?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mao, Rui; Gong, Dao-Yi; Yang, Jing; Zhang, Zi-Yin; Kim, Seong-Joong; He, Hao-Zhe

    2013-08-01

    this article, the relationship between the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) and the tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the southern Indian Ocean (SIO) was examined. It was found that on the interannual time scale, the AAO is well linked with the TC activity in the SIO during TC season (December-March). The rank correlation coefficient between the AAO index and the TC frequency (TCF) in the SIO is 0.37, which is significant at the 95% confidence level. When the AAO is in a positive phase, TC passage in the northwestern coast of Australia (100E°-120°E and 10°S-30°S) increases by approximately 50%-100% from the climatology. The increase in the TC passage is primarily the result of more frequent TCs originating in this region due to enhanced water vapor convergence and ascending motions, which are caused by a cyclonic height anomaly over the western coast of Australia associated with the positive AAO phases. In addition, the AAO-height covariations, which are essential to the formation of the AAO-TC links in the SIO, were investigated through a historical climate simulation using the Community Climate System Model 4 from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The AAO-height links were well reproduced in the simulation. The similarity in the AAO-height links between the observation and the simulation supports the physical robustness of the AAO-TC links in the SIO.