Robustness of observation-based decadal sea level variability in the Indo-Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nidheesh, A. G.; Lengaigne, M.; Vialard, J.; Izumo, T.; Unnikrishnan, A. S.; Meyssignac, B.; Hamlington, B.; de Boyer Montegut, C.

2017-07-01

We examine the consistency of Indo-Pacific decadal sea level variability in 10 gridded, observation-based sea level products for the 1960-2010 period. Decadal sea level variations are robust in the Pacific, with more than 50% of variance explained by decadal modulation of two flavors of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (classical ENSO and Modoki). Amplitude of decadal sea level variability is weaker in the Indian Ocean than in the Pacific. All data sets indicate a transmission of decadal sea level signals from the western Pacific to the northwest Australian coast through the Indonesian throughflow. The southern tropical Indian Ocean sea level variability is associated with decadal modulations of ENSO in reconstructions but not in reanalyses or in situ data set. The Pacific-independent Indian Ocean decadal sea level variability is not robust but tends to be maximum in the southwestern tropical Indian Ocean. The inconsistency of Indian Ocean decadal variability across the sea level products calls for caution in making definitive conclusions on decadal sea level variability in this basin.

Decadal variability of surface incident solar radiation over China: Observations, satellite retrievals, and reanalyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Kaicun; Ma, Qian; Li, Zhijun; Wang, Jiankai

2015-07-01

Existing studies have shown that observed surface incident solar radiation (Rs) over China may have important inhomogeneity issues. This study provides metadata and reference data to homogenize observed Rs, from which the decadal variability of Rs over China can be accurately derived. From 1958 to 1990, diffuse solar radiation (Rsdif) and direct solar radiation (Rsdir) were measured separately, and Rs was calculated as their sum. The pyranometers used to measure Rsdif had a strong sensitivity drift problem, which introduced a spurious decreasing trend into the observed Rsdif and Rs data, whereas the observed Rsdir did not suffer from this sensitivity drift problem. From 1990 to 1993, instruments and measurement methods were replaced and measuring stations were restructured in China, which introduced an abrupt increase in the observed Rs. Intercomparisons between observation-based and model-based Rs performed in this research show that sunshine duration (SunDu)-derived Rs is of high quality and can be used as reference data to homogenize observed Rs data. The homogenized and adjusted data of observed Rs combines the advantages of observed Rs in quantifying hourly to monthly variability and SunDu-derived Rs in depicting decadal variability and trend. Rs averaged over 105 stations in China decreased at -2.9 W m-2 per decade from 1961 to 1990 and remained stable afterward. This decadal variability is confirmed by the observed Rsdir and diurnal temperature ranges, and can be reproduced by high-quality Earth System Models. However, neither satellite retrievals nor reanalyses can accurately reproduce such decadal variability over China.

Intensification of decadal and multi-decadal sea level variability in the western tropical Pacific during recent decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Weiqing; Meehl, Gerald A.; Hu, Aixue; Alexander, Michael A.; Yamagata, Toshio; Yuan, Dongliang; Ishii, Masayoshi; Pegion, Philip; Zheng, Jian; Hamlington, Benjamin D.; Quan, Xiao-Wei; Leben, Robert R.

2014-09-01

Previous studies have linked the rapid sea level rise (SLR) in the western tropical Pacific (WTP) since the early 1990s to the Pacific decadal climate modes, notably the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in the north Pacific or Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) considering its basin wide signature. Here, the authors investigate the changing patterns of decadal (10-20 years) and multidecadal (>20 years) sea level variability (global mean SLR removed) in the Pacific associated with the IPO, by analyzing satellite and in situ observations, together with reconstructed and reanalysis products, and performing ocean and atmosphere model experiments. Robust intensification is detected for both decadal and multidecadal sea level variability in the WTP since the early 1990s. The IPO intensity, however, did not increase and thus cannot explain the faster SLR. The observed, accelerated WTP SLR results from the combined effects of Indian Ocean and WTP warming and central-eastern tropical Pacific cooling associated with the IPO cold transition. The warm Indian Ocean acts in concert with the warm WTP and cold central-eastern tropical Pacific to drive intensified easterlies and negative Ekman pumping velocity in western-central tropical Pacific, thereby enhancing the western tropical Pacific SLR. On decadal timescales, the intensified sea level variability since the late 1980s or early 1990s results from the "out of phase" relationship of sea surface temperature anomalies between the Indian and central-eastern tropical Pacific since 1985, which produces "in phase" effects on the WTP sea level variability.

A further assessment of vegetation feedback on decadal Sahel rainfall variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kucharski, Fred; Zeng, Ning; Kalnay, Eugenia

2013-03-01

The effect of vegetation feedback on decadal-scale Sahel rainfall variability is analyzed using an ensemble of climate model simulations in which the atmospheric general circulation model ICTPAGCM ("SPEEDY") is coupled to the dynamic vegetation model VEGAS to represent feedbacks from surface albedo change and evapotranspiration, forced externally by observed sea surface temperature (SST) changes. In the control experiment, where the full vegetation feedback is included, the ensemble is consistent with the observed decadal rainfall variability, with a forced component 60 % of the observed variability. In a sensitivity experiment where climatological vegetation cover and albedo are prescribed from the control experiment, the ensemble of simulations is not consistent with the observations because of strongly reduced amplitude of decadal rainfall variability, and the forced component drops to 35 % of the observed variability. The decadal rainfall variability is driven by SST forcing, but significantly enhanced by land-surface feedbacks. Both, local evaporation and moisture flux convergence changes are important for the total rainfall response. Also the internal decadal variability across the ensemble members (not SST-forced) is much stronger in the control experiment compared with the one where vegetation cover and albedo are prescribed. It is further shown that this positive vegetation feedback is physically related to the albedo feedback, supporting the Charney hypothesis.

Ocean impact on decadal Atlantic climate variability revealed by sea-level observations.

PubMed

McCarthy, Gerard D; Haigh, Ivan D; Hirschi, Joël J-M; Grist, Jeremy P; Smeed, David A

2015-05-28

Decadal variability is a notable feature of the Atlantic Ocean and the climate of the regions it influences. Prominently, this is manifested in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) in sea surface temperatures. Positive (negative) phases of the AMO coincide with warmer (colder) North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. The AMO is linked with decadal climate fluctuations, such as Indian and Sahel rainfall, European summer precipitation, Atlantic hurricanes and variations in global temperatures. It is widely believed that ocean circulation drives the phase changes of the AMO by controlling ocean heat content. However, there are no direct observations of ocean circulation of sufficient length to support this, leading to questions about whether the AMO is controlled from another source. Here we provide observational evidence of the widely hypothesized link between ocean circulation and the AMO. We take a new approach, using sea level along the east coast of the United States to estimate ocean circulation on decadal timescales. We show that ocean circulation responds to the first mode of Atlantic atmospheric forcing, the North Atlantic Oscillation, through circulation changes between the subtropical and subpolar gyres--the intergyre region. These circulation changes affect the decadal evolution of North Atlantic heat content and, consequently, the phases of the AMO. The Atlantic overturning circulation is declining and the AMO is moving to a negative phase. This may offer a brief respite from the persistent rise of global temperatures, but in the coupled system we describe, there are compensating effects. In this case, the negative AMO is associated with a continued acceleration of sea-level rise along the northeast coast of the United States.

Tides and Decadal Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, Richard D.

2003-01-01

This paper reviews the mechanisms by which oceanic tides and decadal variability in the oceans are connected. We distinguish between variability caused by tides and variability observed in the tides themselves. Both effects have been detected at some level. The most obvious connection with decadal timescales is through the 18.6-year precession of the moon's orbit plane. This precession gives rise to a small tide of the same period and to 18.6-year modulations in the phase and amplitudes of short-period tides. The 18.6-year "node tide" is very small, no more than 2 cm anywhere, and in sea level data it is dominated by the ocean's natural Variability. Some authors have naively attributed climate variations with periods near 19 years directly to the node tide, but the amplitude of the tide is too small for this mechanism to be operative. The more likely explanation (Loder and Garrett, JGR, 83, 1967-70, 1978) is that the 18.6-y modulations in short-period tides, especially h e principal tide M2, cause variations in ocean mixing, which is then observed in temperature and other climatic indicators. Tidally forced variability has also been proposed by some authors, either in response to occasional (and highly predictable) tidal extremes or as a nonlinear low-frequency oscillation caused by interactions between short-period tides. The former mechanism can produce only short-duration events hardly more significant than normal tidal ranges, but the latter mechanism can in principle induce low-frequency oscillations. The most recent proposal of this type is by Keeling and Whorf, who highlight the 1800-year spectral peak discovered by Bond et al. (1997). But the proposal appears contrived and should be considered, in the words of Munk et al. (2002), "as the most likely among unlikely candidates."

North Atlantic sub-decadal variability in climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reintges, Annika; Martin, Thomas; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun

2017-04-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant variability mode for the winter climate of the North Atlantic sector. During a positive (negative) NAO phase, the sea level pressure (SLP) difference between the subtropical Azores high and the subpolar Icelandic low is anomalously strong (weak). This affects, for example, temperature, precipitation, wind, and surface heat flux over the North Atlantic, and over large parts of Europe. In observations we find enhanced sub-decadal variability of the NAO index that goes along with a dipolar sea surface temperature (SST) pattern. The corresponding SLP and SST patterns are reproduced in a control experiment of the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). Large-scale air-sea interaction is suggested to be essential for the North Atlantic sub-decadal variability in the KCM. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) plays a key role, setting the timescale of the variability by providing a delayed negative feedback to the NAO. The interplay of the NAO and the AMOC on the sub-decadal timescale is further investigated in the CMIP5 model ensemble. For example, the average CMIP5 model AMOC pattern associated with sub-decadal variability is characterized by a deep-reaching dipolar structure, similar to the KCM's sub-decadal AMOC variability pattern. The results suggest that dynamical air-sea interactions are crucial to generate enhanced sub-decadal variability in the North Atlantic climate.

Solar forcing synchronizes decadal North Atlantic climate variability.

PubMed

Thiéblemont, Rémi; Matthes, Katja; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Kodera, Kunihiko; Hansen, Felicitas

2015-09-15

Quasi-decadal variability in solar irradiance has been suggested to exert a substantial effect on Earth's regional climate. In the North Atlantic sector, the 11-year solar signal has been proposed to project onto a pattern resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with a lag of a few years due to ocean-atmosphere interactions. The solar/NAO relationship is, however, highly misrepresented in climate model simulations with realistic observed forcings. In addition, its detection is particularly complicated since NAO quasi-decadal fluctuations can be intrinsically generated by the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. Here we compare two multi-decadal ocean-atmosphere chemistry-climate simulations with and without solar forcing variability. While the experiment including solar variability simulates a 1-2-year lagged solar/NAO relationship, comparison of both experiments suggests that the 11-year solar cycle synchronizes quasi-decadal NAO variability intrinsic to the model. The synchronization is consistent with the downward propagation of the solar signal from the stratosphere to the surface.

Decadal Variability of Surface Incident Solar Radiation over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Kaicun

2015-04-01

Observations have reported a widespread dimming of surface incident solar radiation (Rs) from the 1950s to the 1980s and a brightening afterwards. However, none of the state-of-the-art earth system models, including those from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), could successfully reproduce the dimming/brightening rates over China. This study provides metadata and reference data to investigate the observed variability of Rs in China. From 1958 to 1990, diffuse solar radiation (Rsdif) and direct solar radiation (Rsdir) was measured separately in China, from which Rs was calculated a sum. However, pyranometers used to measure Rsdif had a strong sensitivity drift problem, which introduced a spurious decreasing trend to Rsdif and Rs measurements. The observed Rsdir did not suffer from such sensitivity drift problem. From 1990 to 1993, the old instruments were replaced and measuring stations were relocated in China, which introduced an abrupt increase in the observed Rs. After 1993, Rs was measured by solid black thermopile pyranometers. Comprehensive comparisons between observation-based and model-based Rs performed in this research have shown that sunshine duration (SunDu)-derived Rs is of high quality and provide accurate estimate of decadal variability of Rs over China. SunDu-derived Rs averaged over 105 stations in China decreased at -2.9 W m-2 per decade from 1961 to 1990 and remained stable afterward. This decadal variability has been confirmed by the observed Rsdir, independent studies on aerosols and diurnal temperature range, and can be reproduced by certain high-quality earth system models. However, neither satellite retrievals (the Global Energy and Water Exchanges Project Surface Radiation Budget (GEWEX SRB)) nor reanalyses (ERA-Interim and Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA)) can accurately reproduce such decadal variability of Rs over China for their exclusion of annual variability of tropospheric

Improved spectral comparisons of paleoclimate models and observations via proxy system modeling: Implications for multi-decadal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dee, S. G.; Parsons, L. A.; Loope, G. R.; Overpeck, J. T.; Ault, T. R.; Emile-Geay, J.

2017-10-01

The spectral characteristics of paleoclimate observations spanning the last millennium suggest the presence of significant low-frequency (multi-decadal to centennial scale) variability in the climate system. Since this low-frequency climate variability is critical for climate predictions on societally-relevant scales, it is essential to establish whether General Circulation models (GCMs) are able to simulate it faithfully. Recent studies find large discrepancies between models and paleoclimate data at low frequencies, prompting concerns surrounding the ability of GCMs to predict long-term, high-magnitude variability under greenhouse forcing (Laepple and Huybers, 2014a, 2014b). However, efforts to ground climate model simulations directly in paleoclimate observations are impeded by fundamental differences between models and the proxy data: proxy systems often record a multivariate and/or nonlinear response to climate, precluding a direct comparison to GCM output. In this paper we bridge this gap via a forward proxy modeling approach, coupled to an isotope-enabled GCM. This allows us to disentangle the various contributions to signals embedded in ice cores, speleothem calcite, coral aragonite, tree-ring width, and tree-ring cellulose. The paper addresses the following questions: (1) do forward-modeled ;pseudoproxies; exhibit variability comparable to proxy data? (2) if not, which processes alter the shape of the spectrum of simulated climate variability, and are these processes broadly distinguishable from climate? We apply our method to representative case studies, and broaden these insights with an analysis of the PAGES2k database (PAGES2K Consortium, 2013). We find that current proxy system models (PSMs) can help resolve model-data discrepancies on interannual to decadal timescales, but cannot account for the mismatch in variance on multi-decadal to centennial timescales. We conclude that, specific to this set of PSMs and isotope-enabled model, the paleoclimate

Simulated decadal modes of the NH atmospheric circulation arising from intra-decadal variability, external forcing and slow-decadal climate processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lou, Jiale; Zheng, Xiaogu; Frederiksen, Carsten S.; Liu, Haibo; Grainger, Simon; Ying, Kairan

2017-04-01

A decadal variance decomposition method is applied to the Northern Hemisphere (NH) 500-hPa geopotential height (GPH) and the sea level pressure (SLP) taken from the last millennium (850-1850 AD) experiment with the coupled climate model CCSM4, to estimate the contribution of the intra-decadal variability to the inter-decadal variability. By removing the intra-decadal variability from the total inter-decadal variability, the residual variability is more likely to be associated with slowly varying external forcings and slow-decadal climate processes, and therefore is referred to as slow-decadal variability. The results show that the (multi-)decadal changes of the NH 500-hPa GPH are primarily dominated by slow-decadal variability, whereas the NH SLP field is primarily dominated by the intra-decadal variability. At both pressure levels, the leading intra-decadal modes each have features related to the El Niño-southern oscillation, the intra-decadal variability of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and the Arctic oscillation (AO); while the leading slow-decadal modes are associated with external radiative forcing (mostly with volcanic aerosol loadings), the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation and the slow-decadal variability of AO and PDO. Moreover, the radiative forcing has much weaker effect to the SLP than that to the 500-hPa GPH.

The Oceanic Contribution to Atlantic Multi-Decadal Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wills, R. C.; Armour, K.; Battisti, D. S.; Hartmann, D. L.

2017-12-01

Atlantic multi-decadal variability (AMV) is typically associated with variability in ocean heat transport (OHT) by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, recent work has cast doubt on this connection by showing that slab-ocean climate models, in which OHT cannot vary, exhibit similar variability. Here, we apply low-frequency component analysis to isolate the variability of Atlantic sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) that occurs on decadal and longer time scales. In observations and in pre-industrial control simulations of comprehensive climate models, we find that AMV is confined to the extratropics, with the strongest temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. We show that warm subpolar temperatures are associated with a strengthened AMOC, increased poleward OHT, and local heat fluxes from the ocean into the atmosphere. In contrast, the traditional index of AMV based on the basin-averaged SST anomaly shows warm temperatures preceded by heat fluxes from the atmosphere into the ocean, consistent with the atmosphere driving this variability, and shows a weak relationship with AMOC. The autocorrelation time of the basin-averaged SST index is 1 year compared to an autocorrelation time of 5 years for the variability of subpolar temperatures. This shows that multi-decadal variability of Atlantic SSTs is sustained by OHT variability associated with AMOC, while atmosphere-driven SST variability, such as exists in slab-ocean models, contributes primarily on interannual time scales.

Multi-decadal and seasonal variability of dust observations in West Greenland.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bullard, Joanna E.; Mockford, Tom

2017-04-01

Since the early 1900s expedition records from west Greenland have reported local dust storms. The Kangerlussuaq region, near the inland ice, is dry (mean annual precipitation <160 mm) with, on average, 150 snow-free days per year. The main local dust sources are active, proglacial outwash plains although reworking of loess deposits may also be important. This paper presents an analysis of 70-years of dust storm observations (1945-2015) based on WMO weather codes 6 (dust haze), 7 (raised dust or sand) and 9 (distant or past dust storm) and associated wind data. The 70-year average number of dust observations days is 5 per year but variable ranging from 0 observations to 23 observations in 1985. Over the past 7 decades the number of dust days has increased from <30 in 1945-54 to >75 in 1995-2004 and 2005-2015. The seasonality of dust observations has remained consistent throughout most of the period. Dust days occur all year round but are most frequent in May-June and September-October and are associated with minimum snow cover and glacial meltwater-driven sediment supply to the outwash plains during spring and fall flood events. Wind regime is bimodal dominated by katabatic winds from the northeast, which are strongest and most frequent during winter months (Nov-Jan), with less frequent, southwesterly winds generated by Atlantic storms mostly confined to spring (May, June). The southwesterly winds are those most likely to transport dust onto the Greenland ice sheet.

Re-Examination of the Observed Decadal Variability of Earth Radiation Budget Using Altitude-Corrected ERBE/ERBS Nonscanner WFOV Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wong, Takmeng; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Lee, Robert B.; Smith, G. Louis; Bush, Kathryn A.

2005-01-01

This paper gives an update on the observed decadal variability of Earth Radiation Budget using the latest altitude-corrected Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE)/Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) Nonscanner Wide Field of View (WFOV) instrument Edition3 dataset. The effects of the altitude correction are to modify the original reported decadal changes in tropical mean (20N to 20S) longwave (LW), shortwave (SW), and net radiation between the 1980s and the 1990s from 3.1/-2.4/-0.7 to 1.6/-3.0/1.4 Wm(sup -2) respectively. In addition, a small SW instrument drift over the 15-year period was discovered during the validation of the WFOV Edition3 dataset. A correction was developed and applied to the Edition3 dataset at the data user level to produce the WFOV Edition3_Rev1 dataset. With this final correction, the ERBS Nonscanner observed decadal changes in tropical mean LW, SW, and net radiation between the 1980s and the 1990s now stand at 0.7/-2.1/1.4 Wm(sup -2), respectively, which are similar to the observed decadal changes in the HIRS Pathfinder OLR and the ISCCP FD record; but disagree with the AVHRR Pathfinder ERB record. Furthermore, the observed interannual variability of near-global ERBS WFOV Edition3_Rev1 net radiation is found to be remarkably consistent with the latest ocean heat storage record for the overlapping time period of 1993 to 1999. Both data sets show variations of roughly 1.5 Wm(sup -2) in planetary net heat balance during the 1990s.

Agulhas leakage dynamics affects decadal variability in Atlantic overturning circulation.

PubMed

Biastoch, A; Böning, C W; Lutjeharms, J R E

2008-11-27

Predicting the evolution of climate over decadal timescales requires a quantitative understanding of the dynamics that govern the meridional overturning circulation (MOC). Comprehensive ocean measurement programmes aiming to monitor MOC variations have been established in the subtropical North Atlantic (RAPID, at latitude 26.5 degrees N, and MOVE, at latitude 16 degrees N) and show strong variability on intraseasonal to interannual timescales. Observational evidence of longer-term changes in MOC transport remains scarce, owing to infrequent sampling of transoceanic sections over past decades. Inferences based on long-term sea surface temperature records, however, supported by model simulations, suggest a variability with an amplitude of +/-1.5-3 Sv (1 Sv = 10(6) m(3) s(-1)) on decadal timescales in the subtropics. Such variability has been attributed to variations of deep water formation in the sub-arctic Atlantic, particularly the renewal rate of Labrador Sea Water. Here we present results from a model simulation that suggest an additional influence on decadal MOC variability having a Southern Hemisphere origin: dynamic signals originating in the Agulhas leakage region at the southern tip of Africa. These contribute a MOC signal in the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic that is of the same order of magnitude as the northern source. A complete rationalization of observed MOC changes therefore also requires consideration of signals arriving from the south.

Processes Understanding of Decadal Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prömmel, Kerstin; Cubasch, Ulrich

2016-04-01

The realistic representation of decadal climate variability in the models is essential for the quality of decadal climate predictions. Therefore, the understanding of those processes leading to decadal climate variability needs to be improved. Several of these processes are already included in climate models but their importance has not yet completely been clarified. The simulation of other processes requires sometimes a higher resolution of the model or an extension by additional subsystems. This is addressed within one module of the German research program "MiKlip II - Decadal Climate Predictions" (http://www.fona-miklip.de/en/) with a focus on the following processes. Stratospheric processes and their impact on the troposphere are analysed regarding the climate response to aerosol perturbations caused by volcanic eruptions and the stratospheric decadal variability due to solar forcing, climate change and ozone recovery. To account for the interaction between changing ozone concentrations and climate a computationally efficient ozone chemistry module is developed and implemented in the MiKlip prediction system. The ocean variability and air-sea interaction are analysed with a special focus on the reduction of the North Atlantic cold bias. In addition, the predictability of the oceanic carbon uptake with a special emphasis on the underlying mechanism is investigated. This addresses a combination of physical, biological and chemical processes.

Meridional Modes and Increasing Pacific Decadal Variability Under Anthropogenic Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liguori, Giovanni; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele

2018-01-01

Pacific decadal variability has strong impacts on the statistics of weather, atmosphere extremes, droughts, hurricanes, marine heatwaves, and marine ecosystems. Sea surface temperature (SST) observations show that the variance of the El Niño-like decadal variability has increased by 30% (1920-2015) with a stronger coupling between the major Pacific climate modes. Although we cannot attribute these trends to global climate change, the examination of 30 members of the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (LENS) forced with the RCP8.5 radiative forcing scenario (1920-2100) suggests that significant anthropogenic trends in Pacific decadal variance will emerge by 2020 in response to a more energetic North Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM)—a well-known El Niño precursor. The PMM is a key mechanism for energizing and coupling tropical and extratropical decadal variability. In the LENS, the increase in PMM variance is consistent with an intensification of the winds-evaporation-SST thermodynamic feedback that results from a warmer mean climate.

Enceladus Plumes: Causes of Decadal Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ingersoll, Andrew P.; Ewald, Shawn P.

2016-10-01

The Enceladus plumes have decreased over the decade that Cassini has been observing them. This long-term variation is superposed on the much shorter-term variation tied to the position of Enceladus in its orbit around Saturn. The observations are ISS and VIMS images, which reveal the particles in the plumes but not the gas. The decadal variability largely consists of a 2-fold decline in the mass of plume material, but there is a hint of a recent turnaround. Here we offer three hypotheses, each with its strengths and weaknesses, to explain the long-term variability. The first is seasonal change, from summer to fall in the southern hemisphere. The loss of sunlight could increase the build-up of ice around the tiger stripes. The weakness is that the sunlight is likely to have a small effect, e.g., decreasing the sublimation rate of the ice by only ~1 cm/year. The second hypothesis is a statistical fluctuation in the number of active plumes, which tend to turn themselves off due to build-up of ice at the throat of the vent. The weakness is that the plumes are likely to fluctuate independently, and if there are ~100 plumes, their sum will only fluctuate by 10%. The third hypothesis is that the variation is part of a well-known decadal cycle of orbital eccentricity, which varies by ±2.5% around a mean of 0.0047. The peak eccentricity occurred in 2009-2010, and the minimum occurred in 2015. Since eccentricity controls the short-term orbital cycle variations, it could also control the longer-term decadal variations. The weakness is that the eccentricity variation is small, from 0.0046 to 0.0048. It is not certain that such a small variation could cause a 2-fold variation in the strength of the plumes. An independent study, still in its infancy, is the possibility that liquid water reaches the surface during part of the orbital cycle.

Anatomy of North Pacific Decadal Variability.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, Niklas; Miller, Arthur J.; Pierce, David W.

2002-03-01

rain in the KOE region.The preponderance of variance at decadal timescales in the KOE results from the integration of stochastic Ekman pumping along Rossby wave trajectories. The Ekman pumping is primarily due to atmospheric variability that expresses itself worldwide including in the tropical Pacific. A positive feedback between the coupled model KOE SST (driven by the ocean streamfunction) and North Pacific Ekman pumping is consistent with the enhanced variance of the coupled model at 20-30-yr periods. However, the time series are too short to unambiguously distinguish this positive feedback hypothesis from sampling variability. No evidence is found for a midlatitude gyre ocean-atmosphere delayed negative feedback loop.Comparisons with available observations confirm the seasonality of the forcing, the up to 5-yr time lag between like-signed central North Pacific and KOE SST anomalies, and the associated damping of SST in the KOE region by the latent heat flux. The coupled model results also suggest that observed SST anomalies in the KOE region may be predictable from the history of the wind-stress curl over the North Pacific.

Role of internal variability in recent decadal to multidecadal tropical Pacific climate changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bordbar, Mohammad Hadi; Martin, Thomas; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun

2017-05-01

While the Earth's surface has considerably warmed over the past two decades, the tropical Pacific has featured a cooling of sea surface temperatures in its eastern and central parts, which went along with an unprecedented strengthening of the equatorial trade winds, the surface component of the Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC). Previous studies show that this decadal trend in the trade winds is generally beyond the range of decadal trends simulated by climate models when forced by historical radiative forcing. There is still a debate on the origin of and the potential role that internal variability may have played in the recent decadal surface wind trend. Using a number of long control (unforced) integrations of global climate models and several observational data sets, we address the question as to whether the recent decadal to multidecadal trends are robustly classified as an unusual event or the persistent response to external forcing. The observed trends in the tropical Pacific surface climate are still within the range of the long-term internal variability spanned by the models but represent an extreme realization of this variability. Thus, the recent observed decadal trends in the tropical Pacific, though highly unusual, could be of natural origin. We note that the long-term trends in the selected PWC indices exhibit a large observational uncertainty, even hindering definitive statements about the sign of the trends.