Meta-Analysis of the Oil Price Elasticity of the GDP for Policy Analysis: Documentation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leiby, Paul Newsome; Bowman, David Charles; Oladosu, Gbadebo A.

Given the important role of oil in economic activities, policy makers are interested in estimates of the potential damage to the economy from oil price shocks, particularly during periods of rapid and large increases that accompany severe shocks. Such estimates are needed to quantify the economic costs of oil price shocks, and to evaluate the potential benefits of alternative policy responses. Although research on the economic impacts of oil price shocks is extensive and has generally found that large increases in oil prices exert negative economic impacts, the range of estimates, summarized by the oil price elasticity of the GDPmore » or other aggregate measure of economic activity, is very wide. There are also conditions under which the relationship between the oil price and the economy could be positive. The range of estimates of the oil price elasticity of the GDP for the United States is typified by averages from the studies of Hamilton (2005, 2012) and Kilian and Vigfusson (2014), in which the implied elasticities were -0.014 to - 0.069 and +0.004 to -0.052, respectively. We employ a meta-regression approach to systematically summarize available estimates of the oil price elasticity of the GDP for oil importing economies, and examine the role of key factors. The resulting regression model was used to estimate the oil price elasticity of the GDP for the United States. Based on this we estimate the mean elasticity for the United States at -0.0238, with a 68% confidence interval of -0.0075 to -0.0402, four quarters after a shock.« less

Finding the multipath propagation of multivariable crude oil prices using a wavelet-based network approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Xiaoliang; An, Haizhong; Sun, Xiaoqi; Huang, Xuan; Gao, Xiangyun

2016-04-01

The globalization and regionalization of crude oil trade inevitably give rise to the difference of crude oil prices. The understanding of the pattern of the crude oil prices' mutual propagation is essential for analyzing the development of global oil trade. Previous research has focused mainly on the fuzzy long- or short-term one-to-one propagation of bivariate oil prices, generally ignoring various patterns of periodical multivariate propagation. This study presents a wavelet-based network approach to help uncover the multipath propagation of multivariable crude oil prices in a joint time-frequency period. The weekly oil spot prices of the OPEC member states from June 1999 to March 2011 are adopted as the sample data. First, we used wavelet analysis to find different subseries based on an optimal decomposing scale to describe the periodical feature of the original oil price time series. Second, a complex network model was constructed based on an optimal threshold selection to describe the structural feature of multivariable oil prices. Third, Bayesian network analysis (BNA) was conducted to find the probability causal relationship based on periodical structural features to describe the various patterns of periodical multivariable propagation. Finally, the significance of the leading and intermediary oil prices is discussed. These findings are beneficial for the implementation of periodical target-oriented pricing policies and investment strategies.

Oil price and exchange rate co-movements in Asian countries: Detrended cross-correlation approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussain, Muntazir; Zebende, Gilney Figueira; Bashir, Usman; Donghong, Ding

2017-01-01

Most empirical literature investigates the relation between oil prices and exchange rate through different models. These models measure this relationship on two time scales (long and short terms), and often fail to observe the co-movement of these variables at different time scales. We apply a detrended cross-correlation approach (DCCA) to investigate the co-movements of the oil price and exchange rate in 12 Asian countries. This model determines the co-movements of oil price and exchange rate at different time scale. The exchange rate and oil price time series indicate unit root problem. Their correlation and cross-correlation are very difficult to measure. The result becomes spurious when periodic trend or unit root problem occurs in these time series. This approach measures the possible cross-correlation at different time scale and controlling the unit root problem. Our empirical results support the co-movements of oil prices and exchange rate. Our results support a weak negative cross-correlation between oil price and exchange rate for most Asian countries included in our sample. The results have important monetary, fiscal, inflationary, and trade policy implications for these countries.

Year in Review: Crude Oil Prices 2014

EIA Publications

2015-01-01

This report gives an overview of the primary drivers of crude oil price movements in 2014, in particular the substantial price decline that took place during the second half of the year. Factors such as increased global supply of crude oil, lower crude oil supply disruptions, lower economic growth expectations, and currency exchange rate movements are explored in the report. In addition, links are provided to several other published EIA articles with further in-depth discussion of topics related to the oil price decline.

Criticality Characteristics of Current Oil Price Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drożdż, S.; Kwapień, J.; Oświęcimka, P.

2008-10-01

Methodology that recently leads us to predict to an amazing accuracy the date (July 11, 2008) of reverse of the oil price up trend is briefly summarized and some further aspects of the related oil price dynamics elaborated. This methodology is based on the concept of discrete scale invariance whose finance-prediction-oriented variant involves such elements as log-periodic self-similarity, the universal preferred scaling factor λ≈2, and allows a phenomenon of the "super-bubble". From this perspective the present (as of August 22, 2008) violent - but still log-periodically decelerating - decrease of the oil prices is associated with the decay of such a "super-bubble" that has started developing about one year ago on top of the longer-term oil price increasing phase (normal bubble) whose ultimate termination is evaluated to occur in around mid 2010.

Optimal monetary policy and oil price shocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kormilitsina, Anna

This dissertation is comprised of two chapters. In the first chapter, I investigate the role of systematic U.S. monetary policy in the presence of oil price shocks. The second chapter is devoted to studying different approaches to modeling energy demand. In an influential paper, Bernanke, Gertler, and Watson (1997) and (2004) argue that systematic monetary policy exacerbated the recessions the U.S. economy experienced in the aftermath of post World War II oil price shocks. In the first chapter of this dissertation, I critically evaluate this claim in the context of an estimated medium-scale model of the U.S. business cycle. Specifically, I solve for the Ramsey optimal monetary policy in the medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (henceforth DSGE) of Schmitt-Grohe and Uribe (2005). To model the demand for oil, I use the approach of Finn (2000). According to this approach, the utilization of capital services requires oil usage. In the related literature on the macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks, it is common to calibrate structural parameters of the model. In contrast to this literature, I estimate the parameters of my DSGE model. The estimation strategy involves matching the impulse responses from the theoretical model to responses predicted by an empirical model. For estimation, I use the alternative to the classical Laplace type estimator proposed by Chernozhukov and Hong (2003). To obtain the empirical impulse responses, I identify an oil price shock in a structural VAR (SVAR) model of the U.S. business cycle. The SVAR model predicts that, in response to an oil price increase, GDP, investment, hours, capital utilization, and the real wage fall, while the nominal interest rate and inflation rise. These findings are economically intuitive and in line with the existing empirical evidence. Comparing the actual and the Ramsey optimal monetary policy response to an oil price shock, I find that the optimal policy allows for more inflation, a

Crude oil price dynamics: A study on effects of market expectation and strategic supply on price movements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Xin

Recent years have seen dramatic fluctuations in crude oil prices. This dissertation attempts to better understand price behavior. The first chapter studies the behavior of crude oil spot and futures prices. Oil prices, particularly spot and short-term futures prices, appear to have switched from I(0) to I(1) in early 2000s. To better understand this apparent change in persistence, a factor model of oil prices is proposed, where the prices are decomposed into long-term and short-term components. The change in the persistence behavior can be explained by changes in the relative volatility of the underlying components. Fitting the model to weekly data on WTI prices, the volatility of the persistent shocks increased substantially relative to other shocks. In addition, the risk premiums in futures prices have changed their signs and become more volatile. The estimated net marginal convenience yield using the model also shows changes in its behavior. These observations suggest that a dramatic fundamental change occurred in the period from 2002 to 2004 in the dynamics of the crude oil market. The second chapter explores the short-run price-inventory dynamics in the presence of different shocks. Classical competitive storage model states that inventory decision considers both current and future market condition, and thus interacts with spot and expected future spot prices. We study competitive storage holding in an equilibrium framework, focusing on the dynamic response of price and inventory to different shocks. We show that news shock generates response profile different from traditional contemporaneous shocks in price and inventory. The model is applied to world crude oil market, where the market expectation is estimated to experience a sharp change in early 2000s, together with a persisting constrained supply relative to demand. The expectation change has limited effect on crude oil spot price though. The world oil market structure has been studied extensively but no

PROJECTIONS OF REGIONAL FUEL OIL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES

EPA Science Inventory

The report presents delivered regional oil and natural gas price forecasts for the industrial and electric utility sectors. Delivered energy price projections by Federal region through the year 2045 are provided for distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, and natural gas. Methodo...

Multivariate Time Series Forecasting of Crude Palm Oil Price Using Machine Learning Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanchymalay, Kasturi; Salim, N.; Sukprasert, Anupong; Krishnan, Ramesh; Raba'ah Hashim, Ummi

2017-08-01

The aim of this paper was to study the correlation between crude palm oil (CPO) price, selected vegetable oil prices (such as soybean oil, coconut oil, and olive oil, rapeseed oil and sunflower oil), crude oil and the monthly exchange rate. Comparative analysis was then performed on CPO price forecasting results using the machine learning techniques. Monthly CPO prices, selected vegetable oil prices, crude oil prices and monthly exchange rate data from January 1987 to February 2017 were utilized. Preliminary analysis showed a positive and high correlation between the CPO price and soy bean oil price and also between CPO price and crude oil price. Experiments were conducted using multi-layer perception, support vector regression and Holt Winter exponential smoothing techniques. The results were assessed by using criteria of root mean square error (RMSE), means absolute error (MAE), means absolute percentage error (MAPE) and Direction of accuracy (DA). Among these three techniques, support vector regression(SVR) with Sequential minimal optimization (SMO) algorithm showed relatively better results compared to multi-layer perceptron and Holt Winters exponential smoothing method.

Identifying the multiscale impacts of crude oil price shocks on the stock market in China at the sector level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Shupei; An, Haizhong; Gao, Xiangyun; Huang, Xuan

2015-09-01

The aim of this research is to investigate the multiscale dynamic linkages between crude oil price and the stock market in China at the sector level. First, the Haar à trous wavelet transform is implemented to extract multiscale information from the original time series. Furthermore, we incorporate the vector autoregression model to estimate the dynamic relationship pairing the Brent oil price and each sector stock index at each scale. There is a strong evidence showing that there are bidirectional Granger causality relationships between most of the sector stock indices and the crude oil price in the short, medium and long terms, except for those in the health, utility and consumption sectors. In fact, the impacts of the crude oil price shocks vary for different sectors over different time horizons. More precisely, the energy, information, material and telecommunication sector stock indices respond to crude oil price shocks negatively in the short run and positively in the medium and long runs, terms whereas the finance sector responds positively over all three time horizons. Moreover, the Brent oil price shocks have a stronger influence on the stock indices of sectors other than the health, optional and utility sectors in the medium and long terms than in the short term. The results obtained suggest implication of this paper as that the investment and policymaking decisions made during different time horizons should be based on the information gathered from each corresponding time scale.

Oil price fluctuations and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, 1960--2004

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alotaibi, Bader

The dissertation examines the effect of oil price fluctuations on GCC economies for the period 1960-2004. The objective of chapter two is to investigate whether oil price fluctuations have asymmetric effects on GDP growth. Does a negative oil price shock have merely an opposite effect as does a positive price shock or are there differences in degrees? Many past studies have examined asymmetries between oil prices and output growth in oil importing countries. A fixed effect model is used. We find that negative oil price shocks dominate positive shocks. The objective of chapter three is to investigate the impact of oil price shocks on real exchange rates and price levels. A structural Vector Autoregression (VAR) model for each country is used containing three and four variables in the first and second specifications, respectively. Oil price shocks are found to be not only important but persistent. In most countries, supply shocks play larger roles than do demand shocks. Nominal shocks have only short-run effects on the real exchange rate and the price level. The objective of chapter four is to investigate fluctuations in budget and trade deficits. Do agents smooth over income shocks due to fluctuations in oil prices or do oil price shocks have large effects? Also, are the budget and trade deficits causally related? If so, what direction does this causal relation take? Many studies have considered links between budget and trade deficits but most have been conducted for countries where oil is not a major concern. A VAR model containing three variables for each country is used. Oil price shocks are found to be persistent. Also, the results support the twin deficits hypothesis. Budget deficit shocks cause deterioration in the trade deficits in GCC countries.

Essays in the Application of Linear and Non-linear Bayesian VAR Models to the Macroeconomic Impacts of Energy Price Shocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, Bao H.

This thesis is a collection of five self contained empirical macroeconomic papers on the asymmetric effects of energy price shocks on various economies. Chapter 1 formally determines the number of regime changes in the US natural gas market by employing a MS-VAR model. Estimated using Bayesian methods, three regimes are identified for the period 1980 - 2016, namely, before the Decontrol Act, after the Decontrol Act and the Recession. The results show that the natural gas market tends to be much more sensitive to market fundamental shocks occurring in a Recession regime than in the other regimes. Augmenting the model by incorporating the price of crude oil, the results reveal that the impacts of oil price shocks on natural gas prices are relatively small. Chapter 2 provides new empirical evidence on the asymmetric reactions of the U.S. natural gas market and the U.S. economy to its market fundamental shocks in different phases of the business cycle. To this end, we employ a ST-VAR model to capture the asymmetric responses depending on economic conditions. Our results indicate that in contrast to the prediction made by a linear VAR model, the STVAR model provides a plausible explanation to the behavior of the U.S. natural gas market, which asymmetrically reacts in bad times and good times. Chapter 3 examines the relationship between China's economic growth and global oil market fluctuations between 1992Q1 and 2015Q3. We find that: (1) the time varying parameter VAR with stochastic volatility provides a better fit as compared to it's constant counterparts; (2) the impacts of intertemporal global oil price shocks on China's output are often small and temporary in nature; (3) oil supply and specific oil demand shocks generally produce negative movements in China's GDP growth whilst oil demand shocks tend to have positive effects; (4) domestic output shocks have no significant impact on price or quantity movements within the global oil market. Chapter 4 examines the

The U.S. Trade Deficit, The Dollar, and The Price of Oil

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-09-29

dollar against other major currencies erodes the purchasing power of oil producers. The International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) has identified three...to undermine the exchange value of the dollar relative to other currencies , devaluing the dollar relative to other currencies and reducing the... currencies . For some, these two events seem to indicate a cause and effect relationship between changes in the price of oil and changes in the value

Jump spillover between oil prices and exchange rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiao-Ping; Zhou, Chun-Yang; Wu, Chong-Feng

2017-11-01

In this paper, we investigate the jump spillover effects between oil prices and exchange rates. To identify the latent historical jumps for exchange rates and oil prices, we use a Bayesian MCMC approach to estimate the stochastic volatility model with correlated jumps in both returns and volatilities for each. We examine the simultaneous jump intensities and the conditional jump spillover probabilities between oil prices and exchange rates, finding strong evidence of jump spillover effects. Further analysis shows that the jump spillovers are mainly due to exogenous events such as financial crises and geopolitical events. Thus, the findings have important implications for financial risk management.

Time-frequency featured co-movement between the stock and prices of crude oil and gold

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Shupei; An, Haizhong; Gao, Xiangyun; Huang, Xuan

2016-02-01

The nonlinear relationships among variables caused by the hidden frequency information complicate the time series analysis. To shed more light on this nonlinear issue, we examine their relationships in joint time-frequency domain with multivariate framework, and the analyses in the time domain and frequency domain serve as comparisons. The daily Brent oil prices, London gold fixing price and Shanghai Composite index from January 1991 to September 2014 are adopted as example. First, they have long-term cointegration relationship in time domain from holistic perspective. Second, the Granger causality tests in different frequency bands are heterogeneous. Finally, the comparison between results from wavelet coherence and multiple wavelet coherence in the joint time-frequency domain indicates that in the high (1-14 days) and medium frequency (14-128 days) bands, the combination of Brent and gold prices has stronger correlation with the stock. In the low frequency band (256-512 days), year 2003 is the structure broken point before which Brent and oil are ideal choice for hedging the risk of the stock market. Thus, this paper offers more details between the Chinese stock market and the commodities markets of crude oil and gold, which suggests that the decisions for different time and frequencies should consider the corresponding benchmark information.

Comment on ``Wealth condensation in Pareto macroeconomies''

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Ding-Wei

2003-10-01

In a recent study of the Pareto macroeconomy [Phys. Rev. E 65, 026102 (2002)], a surprising deviation to the power law distribution of the large wealths is reported. We comment that such a “corruption” phenomenon can be reproduced in a much simplified framework. The corruption disappears when the small wealths are further included in a mean-field treatment. The constraint of the total-wealth conservation leads to a cutoff in the power-law tail, in contrast to the prominent enhancement reported previously.

Addressing oil price changes through business profitability in oil and gas industry in the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Vătavu, Sorana; Lobonț, Oana-Ramona; Para, Iulia; Pelin, Andrei

2018-01-01

In this paper, we investigate how crude oil price and volume traded affected the profitability of oil and gas companies in the United Kingdom (UK) since the financial crisis started in 2008. The study benefit from insights of the financial statements, to develop a model that focuses on how changes in oil price impact corporate performance. In order to observe the financial indicators that influence the performance, as well as the effects that changes in oil prices and demand of crude oil have on the profitability of oil and gas companies, we apply comparative regression analysis, including the generalised method of moments estimation technique for panel data set. The sample is consisting of 31 oil and gas companies in the UK, and the period analysed is 2006-2014. Results show that profitable oil and gas companies managed to face the drop in oil price and recover, characterized by significant cash flows and stock turnover, efficient use of assets, and high solvency rates. Although the oil price and volume traded do not significantly affect profitability and other financial ratios, if the oil price continues to decrease, it would permanently alter both the UK economy and oil and gas companies. In order to survive, companies make drastic cuts and defer essential investments, often at the long-term expense of asset performance. This study is important in a world where the energy consumption steadily grew over time. However, the renewable energy is cheaper and more environmentally friendly, and thus, countries where oil and gas industry is one of the most popular sectors face an economic decline. These results could be useful for investors, managers or decision makers, reclaiming strategic decisions in the current uncertain and volatile environment.

Time series ARIMA models for daily price of palm oil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ariff, Noratiqah Mohd; Zamhawari, Nor Hashimah; Bakar, Mohd Aftar Abu

2015-02-01

Palm oil is deemed as one of the most important commodity that forms the economic backbone of Malaysia. Modeling and forecasting the daily price of palm oil is of great interest for Malaysia's economic growth. In this study, time series ARIMA models are used to fit the daily price of palm oil. The Akaike Infromation Criterion (AIC), Akaike Infromation Criterion with a correction for finite sample sizes (AICc) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) are used to compare between different ARIMA models being considered. It is found that ARIMA(1,2,1) model is suitable for daily price of crude palm oil in Malaysia for the year 2010 to 2012.

Exploring the WTI crude oil price bubble process using the Markov regime switching model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yue-Jun; Wang, Jing

2015-03-01

The sharp volatility of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price in the past decade triggers us to investigate the price bubbles and their evolving process. Empirical results indicate that the fundamental price of WTI crude oil appears relatively more stable than that of the market-trading price, which verifies the existence of oil price bubbles during the sample period. Besides, by allowing the WTI crude oil price bubble process to switch between two states (regimes) according to a first-order Markov chain, we are able to statistically discriminate upheaval from stable states in the crude oil price bubble process; and in most of time, the stable state dominates the WTI crude oil price bubbles while the upheaval state usually proves short-lived and accompanies unexpected market events.

Essays on the effects of oil price shocks on the U.S. stock returns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alsalman, Zeina N.

This research investigates the effect of changes in oil prices and oil price volatility on the U.S. stock returns. The first essay tests whether the sign and the size of oil price shocks matter for the U.S. stock returns. The results suggest a linear model provides a good approximation to the response of real stock returns to real oil price innovations. However, this is not the case when the model is specified in terms of the nominal price of crude oil. Using a modified structural VAR to accommodate GARCH-in-Mean errors, the second essay studies the direct effects of oil price uncertainty on the U.S. stock returns at the aggregate and sectoral levels. We also simulate the response of U.S. stock returns to positive and negative oil price shocks, to examine whether the responses to positive and negative shocks are symmetric. Estimation results suggest that there is no statistically significant effect of oil price volatility on the U.S. stock returns. Moreover, the impulse responses indicate that oil price increases and decreases have symmetric effects on the U.S. stock returns. Using high frequency data, the third essay addresses the issue of uncertainty in oil prices and its effect on U.S. stock returns, taking into account the day of the week effect. The results suggest that the-day-of-the-week effect is present in both the mean and volatility equations. The results also show that the U.S. stock market is sensitive to oil price variations not only at the aggregate level but also across some industries, such as chemicals, entertainment, and retail, where uncertainty in oil prices proves to have positive and statistically significant effect.

Crude oil price analysis and forecasting based on variational mode decomposition and independent component analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

E, Jianwei; Bao, Yanling; Ye, Jimin

2017-10-01

As one of the most vital energy resources in the world, crude oil plays a significant role in international economic market. The fluctuation of crude oil price has attracted academic and commercial attention. There exist many methods in forecasting the trend of crude oil price. However, traditional models failed in predicting accurately. Based on this, a hybrid method will be proposed in this paper, which combines variational mode decomposition (VMD), independent component analysis (ICA) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), called VMD-ICA-ARIMA. The purpose of this study is to analyze the influence factors of crude oil price and predict the future crude oil price. Major steps can be concluded as follows: Firstly, applying the VMD model on the original signal (crude oil price), the modes function can be decomposed adaptively. Secondly, independent components are separated by the ICA, and how the independent components affect the crude oil price is analyzed. Finally, forecasting the price of crude oil price by the ARIMA model, the forecasting trend demonstrates that crude oil price declines periodically. Comparing with benchmark ARIMA and EEMD-ICA-ARIMA, VMD-ICA-ARIMA can forecast the crude oil price more accurately.

Oil-Price Shocks: Beyond Standard Aggregate Demand/Aggregate Supply Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Elwood, S. Kirk

2001-01-01

Explores the problems of portraying oil-price shocks using the aggregate demand/aggregate supply model. Presents a simple modification of the model that differentiates between production and absorption of goods, which enables it to better reflect the effects of oil-price shocks on open economies. (RLH)

Should the Department of Defense Hedge Oil Prices in Order to Save Money

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-01

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA MBA PROFESSIONAL REPORT Should the Department of Defense Hedge Oil Prices In Order...DATES COVERED MBA Professional Report 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Should the Department of Defense Hedge Oil Prices in Order to Save Money? 6. James...the DoD. 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 59 14. SUBJECT TERMS Futures, Options, Swaps, Hedging . Oil Prices, DoD, Procurement 16. PRICE CODE

Monetary policy and the effects of oil price shocks on the Japanese economy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Byung Rhae

1998-12-01

The evidence of output decreases and price level increases following oil price shocks in the Japanese economy is presented in this paper. These negative effects of oil shocks are better explained by Hamilton's (1996) net oil price increase measure (NOPI) than by other oil measures. The fact that an oil shock has a statistically significant effect on the call money rate and real output and that the call money rate also has a statistically significant effect on real output appears to explain that the effects of oil price shocks on economic activity are partially attributed to contractionary monetary policy responses. The asymmetric effects of positive and negative oil shocks are also found in the Japanese economy and this asymmetry can also be partially explained by monetary policy responses. To assess the relative contribution of oil shocks and endogenous monetary policy responses to the economic downturns, I shut off the responses of the call money rate to oil shocks utilizing the impulse response results from the VAR model. Then, I re-run the VAR with the adjusted call money rate series. The empirical results show that around 30--40% of the negative effects of oil price shocks on the Japanese economy can be accounted for by oil shock induced monetary tightening.

Examining the impacts of oil price changes on economic indicators: A panel approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, Kah Boon; Sek, Siok Kun

2017-04-01

The impact of oil price on global economy is evident from many studies and research findings. In this study, we extend the research on examining the impact of oil price changes on economic indicators in terms of economic growth and inflation by comparing different groups of economies (high income versus low income countries and oil importing versus oil exporting countries). Our main objective is to reveal if such impact varies across country income level/ development and oil dependency. In addition, we also seek to compare the impacts of oil price relative to the other factors indicators (money supply, foreign direct investment, exchange rate, government expenditure, inflation and gross domestic product) on economy. For the purpose of this study, the co-integration regression (DOLS and FMOLS) techniques are applied to the panel dataset of four groups of economies which contain 10 countries in each panel dataset. The analysis results show that oil price is not the main determinant although it can have a significant impact on inflation and economic growth across all groups of economies. The three main determinants of economic growth are exchange rate, aggregate demand and government expenditure while the determinants of inflation are aggregate supply and exchange rate. Furthermore, our result also concludes that oil price has a positive impact in oil exporting economies but it shows a negative impact in oil importing economies due to the oil dependency factor.

Three essays on monetary policy responses to oil price shocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plante, Michael

This dissertation contains three chapters which explore the question of how monetary policy should respond to changes in the price of oil. Each chapter explores the question from the perspective of a different economic environment. The first chapter examines welfare maximizing optimal monetary policy in a closed economy New Keynesian model that is extended to include household and firm demand for oil products, sticky wages, and capital accumulation. When households and firms demand oil products a natural difference arises between the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the core CPI, and the GDP deflator. I show that when nominal wages are flexible then the optimal policy places a heavy emphasis on stabilizing the inflation rate of the core CPI. If aggregate nominal wages are sticky then the central bank should focus on stabilizing some combination of core inflation and nominal wage inflation. Under no case examined is it optimal to stabilize either GDP deflator or CPI inflation. The second chapter examines monetary policy responses to oil price shocks in a small open economy with traded and non-traded goods. Oil and labor are used to produce the traded and non-traded goods and prices are sticky in the non-traded sector. I show analytically that the ratio of the oil and labor cost shares in the traded and non-traded sectors is crucial for determining the dynamic behavior of many macroeconomic variables after a rise in the price of oil. A policy of fixed exchange rates can produce higher or lower inflation in the non-traded sector depending upon the ratio. Likewise, a policy that stabilizes the inflation rate of prices in the non-traded sector can cause the nominal exchange rate to appreciate or depreciate. For the proper calibration, a policy that stabilizes core inflation produces results very close to the one that stabilizes non-traded inflation. Analytical results show that the fixed exchange rate always produces a unique solution. The policy of stabilizing non

Forecasting of palm oil price in Malaysia using linear and nonlinear methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nor, Abu Hassan Shaari Md; Sarmidi, Tamat; Hosseinidoust, Ehsan

2014-09-01

The first question that comes to the mind is: "How can we predict the palm oil price accurately?" This question is the authorities, policy makers and economist's question for a long period of time. The first reason is that in the recent years Malaysia showed a comparative advantage in palm oil production and has become top producer and exporter in the world. Secondly, palm oil price plays significant role in government budget and represents important source of income for Malaysia, which potentially can influence the magnitude of monetary policies and eventually have an impact on inflation. Thirdly, knowledge on the future trends would be helpful in the planning and decision making procedures and will generate precise fiscal and monetary policy. Daily data on palm oil prices along with the ARIMA models, neural networks and fuzzy logic systems are employed in this paper. Empirical findings indicate that the dynamic neural network of NARX and the hybrid system of ANFIS provide higher accuracy than the ARIMA and static neural network for forecasting the palm oil price in Malaysia.

Building a Consensus Forecast for Crude Oil Prices

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-03-01

Middle East ( Cremer , 1991). As the world became dependant on cheap oil found in the Middle East, the underlying market was changing. Initially...governments in an effort to break into the market ( Cremer , 1991). During this time, Middle Eastern countries received a royalty on the oil produced within...their borders. This meant that government revenues were tied to volume, regardless of price ( Cremer , 1991). But in the 1950s the oil companies

Economic impacts of a transition to higher oil prices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tessmer, Jr, R. G.; Carhart, S. C.; Marcuse, W.

1978-06-01

Economic impacts of sharply higher oil and gas prices in the eighties are estimated using a combination of optimization and input-output models. A 1985 Base Case is compared with a High Case in which crude oil and crude natural gas are, respectively, 2.1 and 1.4 times as expensive as in the Base Case. Impacts examined include delivered energy prices and demands, resource consumption, emission levels and costs, aggregate and compositional changes in gross national product, balance of payments, output, employment, and sectoral prices. Methodology is developed for linking models in both quantity and price space for energy service--specific fuel demands.more » A set of energy demand elasticities is derived which is consistent between alternative 1985 cases and between the 1985 cases and an historical year (1967). A framework and methodology are also presented for allocating portions of the DOE Conservation budget according to broad policy objectives and allocation rules.« less

The Fall of Oil Prices and the Effects on Biofuels.

PubMed

Reboredo, Fernando H; Lidon, Fernando; Pessoa, Fernanda; Ramalho, José C

2016-01-01

This analysis is focused on the effect of the abrupt decline of oil prices on biofuels, particularly second-generation ethanol. The efforts to decrease the production costs of biofuels, especially cellulosic ethanol (CE), will be greatly threatened if current oil prices remain low, especially since production is not slowing. Only huge state subsidies could alleviate this threat, but the challenge is to persuade citizens that this sacrifice is worthwhile. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

World Oil Prices and Production Trends in AEO2010 (released in AEO2010)

EIA Publications

2010-01-01

In Annual Energy Outlook 2010, the price of light, low-sulfur (or "sweet") crude oil delivered at Cushing, Oklahoma, is tracked to represent movements in world oil prices. The Energy Information Administration makes projections of future supply and demand for "total liquids,"" which includes conventional petroleum liquids -- such as conventional crude oil, natural gas plant liquids, and refinery gain -- in addition to unconventional liquids, which include biofuels, bitumen, coal-to-liquids (CTL), gas-to-liquids (GTL), extra-heavy oils, and shale oil.

Impact of high oil prices on freight transportation : modal shift potential in five corridors, technical report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-10-01

In recent months the price of oil has risen sharply and with it, gasoline, diesel, and fuel oil prices. The : impact of these oil price increases is very strong as it flows through the U.S. economy. Firstly, its impact on : production costs results i...

Interdependence between crude oil and world food prices: A detrended cross correlation analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pal, Debdatta; Mitra, Subrata K.

2018-02-01

This article explores the changing interdependence between crude oil and world food prices at varying time scales using detrended cross correlation analysis that would answer whether the interdependence (if any) differed significantly between pre and post-crisis period. Unlike the previous studies that exogenously imposed break dates for dividing the time series into sub-samples, we tested whether the mean of the crude oil price changed over time to find evidence for structural changes in the crude oil price series and endogenously determine three break dates with minimum Bayesian information criterion scores. Accordingly, we divided the entire study period in four sample periods - January 1990 to October 1999, November 1999 to February 2005, March 2005 to September 2010, and October 2010 to July 2016, where the third sample period coincided with the period of food crisis and enabled us to compare the fuel-food interdependence across pre-crisis, during the crisis, and post-crisis periods. The results of the detrended cross correlation analysis extended corroborative evidence for increasing positive interdependence between the crude oil price and world food price index along with its sub-categories, namely dairy, cereals, vegetable oil, and sugar. The article ends with the implications of these results in the domain of food policy and the financial sector.

Volatility of bitumen prices and implications for the industry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Attanasi, E.D.

2008-01-01

Sustained crude oil price increases have led to increased investment in and production of Canadian bitumen to supplement North American oil supplies. For new projects, the evaluation of profitability is based on a prediction of the future price path of bitumen and ultimately light/medium crude oil. This article examines the relationship between the bitumen and light crude oil prices in the context of a simple error-correction economic-adjustment model. The analysis shows bitumen prices to be significantly more volatile than light crude prices. Also, the dominant effect of an oil price shock on bitumen prices is immediate and is amplified, both in absolute terms and percentage price changes. It is argued that the bitumen industry response to such market risks will likely be a realignment toward vertical integration via new downstream construction, mergers, or on a de facto basis by the establishment of alliances. ?? 2008 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

Evaluating the Mechanism of Oil Price Shocks and Fiscal Policy Responses in the Malaysian Economy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bekhet, Hussain A.; Yusoff, Nora Yusma Mohamed

2013-06-01

The paper aims to explore the symmetric impact of oil price shock on economy, to understand its mechanism channel and how fiscal policy response towards it. The Generalized Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition under the VAR methodology were employed. The empirical findings suggest that symmetric oil price shock has a positive and direct impact on oil revenue and government expenditure. However, the real GDP is vulnerable in a short-term but not in the long term period. These results would confirm that fiscal policy is the main mechanism channel that mitigates the adverse effects oil price shocks to the economy.

Quantifying uncertainties influencing the long-term impacts of oil prices on energy markets and carbon emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCollum, David L.; Jewell, Jessica; Krey, Volker; Bazilian, Morgan; Fay, Marianne; Riahi, Keywan

2016-07-01

Oil prices have fluctuated remarkably in recent years. Previous studies have analysed the impacts of future oil prices on the energy system and greenhouse gas emissions, but none have quantitatively assessed how the broader, energy-system-wide impacts of diverging oil price futures depend on a suite of critical uncertainties. Here we use the MESSAGE integrated assessment model to study several factors potentially influencing this interaction, thereby shedding light on which future unknowns hold the most importance. We find that sustained low or high oil prices could have a major impact on the global energy system over the next several decades; and depending on how the fuel substitution dynamics play out, the carbon dioxide consequences could be significant (for example, between 5 and 20% of the budget for staying below the internationally agreed 2 ∘C target). Whether or not oil and gas prices decouple going forward is found to be the biggest uncertainty.

Oil Production, The Price Crash and Uncertainty in Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, J. W.

2015-12-01

World oil production increased to about 74 million barrels per day by January 2005, and was fairly constant until 2011 when it started to increase to 77.8 mb/d in 2014. This spectacular increase of 4 mb/d was almost entirely due to a sharp increase in production in the US from shale formations, called light tight oil (LTO). World oil production minus this increase in US LTO Production has been flat since 2005 at about 74 mb/d. When US production starts to decline, world oil production likely will as well. That surge is forecast to end soon because LTO is expensive to produce, the first year decline rates are extremely high requiring many new wells each year to maintain or increase production and the most productive locations have already been drilled. It is unprofitable for the Exploration and Production (E&P) companies. Full-year free cash flow has been negative for most tight oil E&P companies since 2009. The total negative cash flow for the 19 largest E&P companies totaled 10.5B in 2014. The surge in US LTO production created an imbalance in global supply and demand and resulted in a 50% decrease in the price of oil. The tight-oil producers who were are financially marginal at an oil price greater than 90 per barrel are even more so at the lower price. As a result the surge in US production of LTO is declining, making it unlikely that world oil production will exceed the present value of about 28 Gb/yr (equivalent to 75 mb/d) (175 EJ/yr). Many of the SRES (IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios) and RCP (IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways) projections (especially RCP 8.5 and 6) require CO2 emissions due to oil consumption in the range of 32 Gb/yr to 57 Gb/yr (200 to 350 EJ/yr). The higher values would require a doubling of world oil production. It is highly uncertain whether the higher CO2 scenarios will be reached. This is an element of uncertainty missing from most considerations of future climate change.

Chemical and sensory differences between high price and low price extra virgin olive oils.

PubMed

Fiorini, Dennis; Boarelli, Maria Chiara; Conti, Paolo; Alfei, Barbara; Caprioli, Giovanni; Ricciutelli, Massimo; Sagratini, Gianni; Fedeli, Donatella; Gabbianelli, Rosita; Pacetti, Deborah

2018-03-01

The aim of the study was to identify new potential chemical markers of extra virgin olive oil (EVOO) quality by using a multicomponent analysis approach. Sixty-six EVOOs were purchased from the Italian market and classified according to their price as low price EVOOs (LEVOOs) and high price EVOOs (HEVOOs) costing 3.60-5.90euro/L and 7.49-29.80euro/L respectively. Sensory and chemical parameters strictly related to olive oil quality have been investigated, like volatile substances, polar phenolic substances, antioxidant activity, fatty acid composition, and α-tocopherol. Significant differences in terms of chemical composition and sensory features have been highlighted between the two EVOOs classes investigated, proving a generally lower level of quality of LEVOOs, clearly showed also by means of principal component analysis. Among the most interesting outcomes, R ratio (free tyrosol and hydroxytyrosol over total free and bound forms), measuring the extent of secoiridoids hydrolysis, resulted to be significantly higher in LEVOOs than in HEVOOs. Other key differences were found in the volatile substances composition, in the stearic acid percentage and in p-coumaric acid content. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Regional Residential Heating Oil Price Model

EIA Publications

2009-01-01

The regional residential heating oil price module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide residential retail price forecasts for the 4 census regions: Northeast, South, Midwest, and West.

White noise effects of U.S. crude oil spot prices on stock prices of a publicly traded company: A case study cross-correlation analysis based on green energy management theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, Peter M.

The purpose of this study was to examine white noise effects of U.S. crude oil spot prices on the stock prices of a green energy company. Epistemological, Phenomenological, Axiological and Ontological assumptions of Green Energy Management (GEM) Theory were utilized for selecting Air Products and Chemicals Inc. (APD) as the case study. Exxon Mobil (XOM) was used as a control for triangulation purposes. The period of time examined was between January of 1999 and December of 2008. Monthly stock prices for APD and XOM for the ten year period of time were collected from the New York Stock Exchange. Monthly U.S. crude oil spot prices for the ten year period of time were collected from the US Energy Information Administration. The data was entered into SPSS 17.0 software in order to conduct cross-correlation analysis. The six cross-correlation assumptions were satisfied in order to conduct a Cross-correlation Mirror Test (CCMT). The CCMT established the lag time direction and verified that U.S. crude oil spot prices serve as white noise for stock prices of APD and XOM. The Theory of Relative Weakness was employed in order to analyze the results. A 2 year period of time between December, 2006 and December, 2008 was examined. The correlation coefficient r = - .155 indicates that U.S. crude oil spot prices lead APD stock prices by 4 months. During the same 2 year period of time, U.S. crude oil spot prices lead XOM stock prices by 4 months at r = -.283. XOM stock prices and APD stock prices were positively correlated with 0 lag in time with a positive r = .566. The 4 month cycle was an exact match between APD stock prices, XOM stock prices and U.S. crude oil spot prices. The 4 month cycle was due to the random price fluctuation of U.S. crude oil spot prices that obscured the true stock prices of APD and XOM for the 2 year period of time.

Oil Price Movements and Globalisation: Is There a Connection?

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-09-01

Côte d’Ivorie Chad Uzbekistan Hong Kong Mauritius Ecuador Congo, DR Ireland Mexico Gambia Eritrea Israel Mongolia Ghana Ethiopia Italy Nicaragua Guinea... Mexico (Group 2) – – Norway (Group 1) – – + – Notes: + indicates a factor increasing the strength of oil price increases in affecting GDP...shocks still inflict considerable economic losses on these countries. As might be imagined, the two oil economies included in the study, Mexico and Norway

Effect of Worldwide Oil Price Fluctuations on Biomass Fuel Use and Child Respiratory Health: Evidence from Guatemala

PubMed Central

Fried, Brian J.

2011-01-01

Objectives. We examined the effect of worldwide oil price fluctuations on household fuel use and child respiratory health in Guatemala. Methods. We regressed measures of household fuel use and child respiratory health on the average worldwide oil price and a rich set of covariates. We leveraged variation in oil prices over the 6-month period of the survey to identify associations between fuel prices, fuel choice, and child respiratory outcomes. Results. A $1 (3.4% point) increase in worldwide fuel prices was associated with a 2.8% point decrease in liquid propane gasoline use (P < .05), a 0.75% point increase in wood use (P < .05), and a 1.5% point increase in the likelihood of the child reporting a respiratory symptom (P < .1). The association between oil prices and the fuel choice indicators was largest for households in the middle of the income distribution. Conclusions. Fluctuations in worldwide fuel prices affected household fuel use and, consequently, child health. Policies to help households tide over fuel price shocks or reduce pollution from biomass sources would confer positive health benefits. Such policies would be most effective if they targeted both poor and middle-income households. PMID:21778480

Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels

EIA Publications

2003-01-01

This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) petroleum inventory levels.

Evidence of infinite and finite jump processes in commodity futures prices: Crude oil and natural gas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Wenbin; Guernsey, Scott B.; Linn, Scott C.

2018-07-01

We examine the frequency and character of price jumps in front month oil and natural gas futures prices. Prices are sampled every five seconds over the period 2006-2014. Our test results indicate that jumps in crude oil and natural gas futures prices can be decomposed into an infinite activity jump diffusion process and a less frequent but larger jump process. We also find that we cannot reject the hypothesis that Brownian motion is also present in both return series. The results are based on a battery of tests that are "model free". We further find that jumps account for respectively 36 and 41 percent of the realized variances of the crude oil and the natural gas returns.

Impact of high oil prices on freight transportation : modal shift potential in five corridors, executive summary.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-10-01

MAJOR FINDINGS : According to U.S. and international forecasts, oil prices could range between a low of $60 to a : high of $160 per barrel through 2020 (in constant 2008 dollars), but the Central Scenario : indicates that oil prices could stabili...

Oil Price Uncertainty, Transport Fuel Demand and Public Health

PubMed Central

He, Ling-Yun; Yang, Sheng; Chang, Dongfeng

2017-01-01

Based on the panel data of 306 cities in China from 2002 to 2012, this paper investigates China’s road transport fuel (i.e., gasoline and diesel) demand system by using the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) and the Quadratic AIDS (QUAIDS) models. The results indicate that own-price elasticities for different vehicle categories range from −1.215 to −0.459 (by AIDS) and from −1.399 to −0.369 (by QUAIDS). Then, this study estimates the air pollution emissions (CO, NOx and PM2.5) and public health damages from the road transport sector under different oil price shocks. Compared to the base year 2012, results show that a fuel price rise of 30% can avoid 1,147,270 tonnes of pollution emissions; besides, premature deaths and economic losses decrease by 16,149 cases and 13,817.953 million RMB yuan respectively; while based on the non-linear health effect model, the premature deaths and total economic losses decrease by 15,534 and 13,291.4 million RMB yuan respectively. Our study combines the fuel demand and health evaluation models and is the first attempt to address how oil price changes influence public health through the fuel demand system in China. Given its serious air pollution emission and substantial health damages, this paper provides important insights for policy makers in terms of persistent increasing in fuel consumption and the associated health and economic losses. PMID:28257076

Wavelet Analyses of Oil Prices, USD Variations and Impact on Logistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melek, M.; Tokgozlu, A.; Aslan, Z.

2009-07-01

This paper is related with temporal variations of historical oil prices and Dollar and Euro in Turkey. Daily data based on OECD and Central Bank of Turkey records beginning from 1946 has been considered. 1D-continuous wavelets and wavelet packets analysis techniques have been applied on data. Wavelet techniques help to detect abrupt changing's, increasing and decreasing trends of data. Estimation of variables has been presented by using linear regression estimation techniques. The results of this study have been compared with the small and large scale effects. Transportation costs of track show a similar variation with fuel prices. The second part of the paper is related with estimation of imports, exports, costs, total number of vehicles and annual variations by considering temporal variation of oil prices and Dollar currency in Turkey. Wavelet techniques offer a user friendly methodology to interpret some local effects on increasing trend of imports and exports data.

30 CFR 203.54 - How does my relief arrangement for an oil and gas lease operate if prices rise sharply?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... reference price, you must pay the effective royalty rate on all monthly production. (a) Your current reference price is a weighted average of daily closing prices on the NYMEX for light sweet crude oil and... average of daily closing prices on the NYMEX for light sweet crude oil and natural gas during the...

Explaining EIA Crude Oil and Petroleum Product Price Data and Comparing with Other U.S. Government Data Sources, 2001 to 2010

EIA Publications

2012-01-01

This article describes the sampling frames and basic data collection methods for petroleum price data reported by Energy Information Administration (EIA) and other Government agencies. In addition, it compares and contrasts annual average prices reported by EIA with comparable prices from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) CPI (Consumer Price Indexes) for the retail prices of residential No. 2 distillate, on-highway diesel fuel and motor gasoline (all grades.) Further, it compares refiner wholesale/resale prices for No. 2 fuel oil, No. 2 diesel fuel, motor gasoline (all grades,) kerosene-type jet fuel and residual fuel oil reported by EIA with comparable prices from the BLS PPI (Producer Price Index.) A discussion of the various crude oil prices and spot/futures prices published by EIA and other Government agencies is also included in the article.

Oil Price Uncertainty, Transport Fuel Demand and Public Health.

PubMed

He, Ling-Yun; Yang, Sheng; Chang, Dongfeng

2017-03-01

Based on the panel data of 306 cities in China from 2002 to 2012, this paper investigates China's road transport fuel (i.e., gasoline and diesel) demand system by using the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) and the Quadratic AIDS (QUAIDS) models. The results indicate that own-priceelasticitiesfordifferentvehiclecategoriesrangefrom-1.215to-0.459(byAIDS)andfrom -1.399 to-0.369 (by QUAIDS). Then, this study estimates the air pollution emissions (CO, NOx and PM2.5) and public health damages from the road transport sector under different oil price shocks. Compared to the base year 2012, results show that a fuel price rise of 30% can avoid 1,147,270 tonnes of pollution emissions; besides, premature deaths and economic losses decrease by 16,149 cases and 13,817.953 million RMB yuan respectively; while based on the non-linear health effect model, the premature deaths and total economic losses decrease by 15,534 and 13,291.4 million RMB yuan respectively. Our study combines the fuel demand and health evaluation models and is the first attempt to address how oil price changes influence public health through the fuel demand system in China. Given its serious air pollution emission and substantial health damages, this paper provides important insights for policy makers in terms of persistent increasing in fuel consumption and the associated health and economic losses.

Day-ahead crude oil price forecasting using a novel morphological component analysis based model.

PubMed

Zhu, Qing; He, Kaijian; Zou, Yingchao; Lai, Kin Keung

2014-01-01

As a typical nonlinear and dynamic system, the crude oil price movement is difficult to predict and its accurate forecasting remains the subject of intense research activity. Recent empirical evidence suggests that the multiscale data characteristics in the price movement are another important stylized fact. The incorporation of mixture of data characteristics in the time scale domain during the modelling process can lead to significant performance improvement. This paper proposes a novel morphological component analysis based hybrid methodology for modeling the multiscale heterogeneous characteristics of the price movement in the crude oil markets. Empirical studies in two representative benchmark crude oil markets reveal the existence of multiscale heterogeneous microdata structure. The significant performance improvement of the proposed algorithm incorporating the heterogeneous data characteristics, against benchmark random walk, ARMA, and SVR models, is also attributed to the innovative methodology proposed to incorporate this important stylized fact during the modelling process. Meanwhile, work in this paper offers additional insights into the heterogeneous market microstructure with economic viable interpretations.

Crude oil price forecasting based on hybridizing wavelet multiple linear regression model, particle swarm optimization techniques, and principal component analysis.

PubMed

Shabri, Ani; Samsudin, Ruhaidah

2014-01-01

Crude oil prices do play significant role in the global economy and are a key input into option pricing formulas, portfolio allocation, and risk measurement. In this paper, a hybrid model integrating wavelet and multiple linear regressions (MLR) is proposed for crude oil price forecasting. In this model, Mallat wavelet transform is first selected to decompose an original time series into several subseries with different scale. Then, the principal component analysis (PCA) is used in processing subseries data in MLR for crude oil price forecasting. The particle swarm optimization (PSO) is used to adopt the optimal parameters of the MLR model. To assess the effectiveness of this model, daily crude oil market, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), has been used as the case study. Time series prediction capability performance of the WMLR model is compared with the MLR, ARIMA, and GARCH models using various statistics measures. The experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms the individual models in forecasting of the crude oil prices series.

Crude Oil Price Forecasting Based on Hybridizing Wavelet Multiple Linear Regression Model, Particle Swarm Optimization Techniques, and Principal Component Analysis

PubMed Central

Shabri, Ani; Samsudin, Ruhaidah

2014-01-01

Crude oil prices do play significant role in the global economy and are a key input into option pricing formulas, portfolio allocation, and risk measurement. In this paper, a hybrid model integrating wavelet and multiple linear regressions (MLR) is proposed for crude oil price forecasting. In this model, Mallat wavelet transform is first selected to decompose an original time series into several subseries with different scale. Then, the principal component analysis (PCA) is used in processing subseries data in MLR for crude oil price forecasting. The particle swarm optimization (PSO) is used to adopt the optimal parameters of the MLR model. To assess the effectiveness of this model, daily crude oil market, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), has been used as the case study. Time series prediction capability performance of the WMLR model is compared with the MLR, ARIMA, and GARCH models using various statistics measures. The experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms the individual models in forecasting of the crude oil prices series. PMID:24895666

Information-driven trade and price-volume relationship in artificial stock markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xinghua; Liu, Xin; Liang, Xiaobei

2015-07-01

The positive relation between stock price changes and trading volume (price-volume relationship) as a stylized fact has attracted significant interest among finance researchers and investment practitioners. However, until now, consensus has not been reached regarding the causes of the relationship based on real market data because extracting valuable variables (such as information-driven trade volume) from real data is difficult. This lack of general consensus motivates us to develop a simple agent-based computational artificial stock market where extracting the necessary variables is easy. Based on this model and its artificial data, our tests have found that the aggressive trading style of informed agents can produce a price-volume relationship. Therefore, the information spreading process is not a necessary condition for producing price-volume relationship.

Day-Ahead Crude Oil Price Forecasting Using a Novel Morphological Component Analysis Based Model

PubMed Central

Zhu, Qing; Zou, Yingchao; Lai, Kin Keung

2014-01-01

As a typical nonlinear and dynamic system, the crude oil price movement is difficult to predict and its accurate forecasting remains the subject of intense research activity. Recent empirical evidence suggests that the multiscale data characteristics in the price movement are another important stylized fact. The incorporation of mixture of data characteristics in the time scale domain during the modelling process can lead to significant performance improvement. This paper proposes a novel morphological component analysis based hybrid methodology for modeling the multiscale heterogeneous characteristics of the price movement in the crude oil markets. Empirical studies in two representative benchmark crude oil markets reveal the existence of multiscale heterogeneous microdata structure. The significant performance improvement of the proposed algorithm incorporating the heterogeneous data characteristics, against benchmark random walk, ARMA, and SVR models, is also attributed to the innovative methodology proposed to incorporate this important stylized fact during the modelling process. Meanwhile, work in this paper offers additional insights into the heterogeneous market microstructure with economic viable interpretations. PMID:25061614

Energy data report: prices and margins of No. 2 distillate fuel oil. Monthly report, January 1982

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Whatley, A.

1982-03-22

Data are presented on the average prices and gross margins for the refining, reselling, and retailing sectors of the No. 2 distillate fuel oil market. Data are tabulated on prices and sales volumes of No. 2 fuel oil and No. 2 diesel fuel for residential, industrial/commercial, institutional/utility, other ultimate consumer sales, and nonultimate consumer sales. A brief discussion of the sampling and estimation procedures used in this report appears in the appendix.

Energy data report: prices and margins of No. 2 distillate fuel oil. Monthly report, October 1982

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Whatley, A.

1982-12-20

Data are presented on the average prices and gross margins for the refining, reselling, and retailing sectors of the No. 2 distillate fuel oil market. Data are tabulated on prices and sales volumes of No. 2 fuel oil and No. 2 diesel fuel for residential, industrial/commercial, institutional/utility, other ultimate consumer sales, and nonultimate consumer sales. A brief discussion of the sampling and estimation procedures used in this report appears in the appendix.

Energy data report: prices and margins of No. 2 distillate fuel oil. Monthly report, November 1982

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Whatley, A.

1983-01-18

Data are presented on the average prices and gross margins for the refining, reselling, and retailing sectors of the No. 2 distillate fuel oil market. Data are tabulated on prices and sales volumes of No. 2 fuel oil and No. 2 diesel fuel for residential, industrial/commercial, institutional/utility, other ultimate consumer sales, and nonultimate consumer sales. A brief discussion of the sampling and estimation procedures used in this report appears in the appendix.

Energy data report: prices and margins of No. 2 distillate fuel oil. Monthly report, December 1981

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Whatley, A.

1982-02-22

Data are presented on the average prices and gross margins for the refining, reselling, and retailing sectors of the No. 2 distillate fuel oil market. Data are tabulated on prices and sales volumes of No. 2 fuel oil and No. 2 diesel fuel for residential, industrial/commercial, institutional/utility, other ultimate consumer sales, and nonultimate consumer sales. A brief discussion of the sampling and estimation procedures used in this report appears in the appendix.

Oil crises and African economies: oil wave on a tidal flood of industrial price inflation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, W.R.; Wilson, E.J. III

Escalating oil-import prices have left the developing African economies with high debts, unfinished projects, and bitterness over what they see as economic assassination by OPEC. Much of the blame for their suffering, however, can be placed on African leaders who failed to control internal factors. The authors review the impact of OPEC's pricing changes in terms of its relation to internal financial and energy characteristics and the purchasing and policy choices made by African nations in response to the price increases. They describe the African nations' ability to solve their energy and economic problems as less favorable than other less-developedmore » countries. The richer OPEC and industrial countries can do more than they are to help relieve the economic strain and to diversify African energy sources. 53 references, 7 tables. (DCK)« less

Volatility spillover between crude oil and exchange rate: A copula-CARR approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pu, Y. J.; Guo, M. Y.

2017-11-01

Oil provides a powerful impetus for modern society's production and life. The influences of oil price fluctuations on socio-economic development are obvious, and it draws more attention from scholars. However, the distribution of oil is highly centralized, which leads to the vast majority of oil trading through foreign trade. As a result, exchange rate plays an important role in the oil business. Study on the relationship between exchange rate and crude oil gradually becomes a hot research topic in recent years. In this paper, we use copula and CARR model to study correlation structure and relationship between crude oil price and exchange rate. We establish CARR models as marginal models and use five copulas which are Gaussian Copula, Student-t Copula, Gumbel Copula, Clayton Copula and Frank Copula to study the correlation structure between NYMEX crude oil price range and U. S. Dollar Index range. Furthermore, we use Copula-CARR model with structural breaks to detect the change points in the correlation structure between NYMEX crude oil price range and U. S. Dollar Index range. Empirical results show that the change points are closely related to the actual economic events.

10 CFR 218.12 - Pricing.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 10 Energy 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Pricing. 218.12 Section 218.12 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OIL STANDBY MANDATORY INTERNATIONAL OIL ALLOCATION Supply Orders § 218.12 Pricing. The price for oil subject to a supply order issued pursuant to this subpart shall be based on the price conditions...

The lead-lag relationships between spot and futures prices of natural gas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yahui; Liu, Li

2018-01-01

The lead-lag relationships between spot and futures markets are of great interest for academics. Previous studies neglect the possibility of nonlinear behaviors which may be caused by asymmetry or persistence. To fill this gap, this paper uses the MF-DCCA method and the linear and nonlinear causality tests to explore the causal relationships between natural gas spot and futures prices in the New York Mercantile Exchange. We find that spot and futures prices are positive cross-correlated, the natural gas futures can linearly Granger cause spot price, and there are bidirectional nonlinear causality relationships between natural gas spot and futures prices. Further, we explore the sources of nonlinear causality relationships, and find that the volatility spillover can partly explain the nonlinear causality and affect their cross-correlations.

Impacts of China’s Edible Oil Pricing Policy on Nutrition

PubMed Central

Ng, Shu Wen; Popkin, Barry M.

2008-01-01

China’s health profile has shifted to one dominated by obesity and nutrition-related noncommunicable diseases (NR-NCDs) necessitating an examination of how economic policies can improve this situation. Edible oil consumption is responsible for much of the increase in energy density of the Chinese diet and particularly linked with the shifting burden of NR-NCDs toward the poor. Longitudinal analysis among adults in the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) covering the period 1991 to 2000 revealed that price policy effects on edible oil can influence dietary composition (particularly of the poor) and the results identify a key preventive policy need. PMID:17996345

Wavelet regression model in forecasting crude oil price

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamid, Mohd Helmie; Shabri, Ani

2017-05-01

This study presents the performance of wavelet multiple linear regression (WMLR) technique in daily crude oil forecasting. WMLR model was developed by integrating the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and multiple linear regression (MLR) model. The original time series was decomposed to sub-time series with different scales by wavelet theory. Correlation analysis was conducted to assist in the selection of optimal decomposed components as inputs for the WMLR model. The daily WTI crude oil price series has been used in this study to test the prediction capability of the proposed model. The forecasting performance of WMLR model were also compared with regular multiple linear regression (MLR), Autoregressive Moving Average (ARIMA) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) using root mean square errors (RMSE) and mean absolute errors (MAE). Based on the experimental results, it appears that the WMLR model performs better than the other forecasting technique tested in this study.

Oil supply between OPEC and non-OPEC based on game theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Yuwen; Yi, Jiexin; Yan, Wei; Yang, Xinshe; Zhang, Song; Gao, Yifan; Wang, Xi

2014-10-01

The competing strategies between OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) and non-OPEC producers make the oil supply market a complex system, and thus, it is very difficult to model and to make predictions. In this paper, we combine the macro-model based on game theory and micro-model to propose a new approach for forecasting oil supply. We take into account the microscopic behaviour in the clearing market and also use the game relationships to adjust oil supplies in our approach. For the supply model, we analyse and consider the different behaviour of non-OPEC and OPEC producers. According to our analysis, limiting the oil supply, and thus maintaining oil price, is the best strategy for OPEC in the low-price scenario, while the rising supply is the best strategy in the high-price scenario. No matter what the oil price is, the dominant strategy for non-OPEC producers is to increase their oil supply. In the high-price scenario, OPEC will try to deplete non-OPEC's share in the oil supply market, which is to OPEC's advantage.

The Price-Concentration Relationship in Early Residential Solar Third-Party Markets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pless, Jacquelyn; Langheim, Ria; Machak, Christina

The market for residential solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in the United States has experienced tremendous growth over the past decade, with installed capacity more than doubling between 2014 and 2016 alone (SEIA, 2016). As the residential market continues to grow, it prompts new questions about the nature of competition between solar installers and how this competition, or lack thereof, affects the prices consumers are paying. It is often assumed that more competition leads to lower prices, but this is not universally true. For example, some studies have shown that factors such as brand loyalty could lead to a negative relationshipmore » between concentration and price in imperfectly competitive markets (Borenstein, 1985; Holmes, 1989). As such, the relationship between prices and market concentration is an open empirical question since theory could predict either a positive or negative relationship. Determining a relationship between prices and market concentration is challenging for several reasons. Most significantly, prices and market structure are simultaneously determined by each other -- the amount of competition a seller faces influences the price they can command, and prices determine a seller's market share. Previous studies have examined recent PV pricing trends over time and between markets (Davidson et al., 2015a; Davidson and Margolis 2015b; Nemet et al., 2016; Gillingham et al., 2014; Barbose and Darghouth 2015). While these studies of solar PV pricing are able to determine correlations between prices and market factors, they have not satisfactorily proven causation. Thus, to the best of our knowledge, there is little work to date that focuses on identifying the causal relationship between market structure and the prices paid by consumers. We use a unique dataset on third-party owned contract terms for the residential solar PV market in the San Diego Gas and Electricity service territory to better understand this relationship. Surprisingly, we

75 FR 34959 - Five-Year Review of Oil Pipeline Pricing Index

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-21

... software should be filed in native applications or print-to-PDF format and not in a scanned format. Mail... F.3d 1424 (D.C. Cir. 1996). \\3\\ Order Establishing Index for Oil Price Change Ceiling Levels, 114... (2003), affirmed, Flying J Inc., et al., v. FERC, 363 F.3d 495 (DC Cir. 2004). \\6\\ Order Establishing...

Gasoline prices and their relationship to drunk-driving crashes.

PubMed

Chi, Guangqing; Zhou, Xuan; McClure, Timothy E; Gilbert, Paul A; Cosby, Arthur G; Zhang, Li; Robertson, Angela A; Levinson, David

2011-01-01

This study investigates the relationship between changing gasoline prices and drunk-driving crashes. Specifically, we examine the effects of gasoline prices on drunk-driving crashes in Mississippi by several crash types and demographic groups at the monthly level from 2004 to 2008, a period experiencing great fluctuation in gasoline prices. An exploratory visualization by graphs shows that higher gasoline prices are generally associated with fewer drunk-driving crashes. Higher gasoline prices depress drunk-driving crashes among young and adult drivers, among male and female drivers, and among white and black drivers. Results from negative binomial regression models show that when gas prices are higher, there are fewer drunk-driving crashes, particularly among property-damage-only crashes. When alcohol consumption levels are higher, there are more drunk-driving crashes, particularly fatal and injury crashes. The effects of gasoline prices and alcohol consumption are stronger on drunk-driving crashes than on all crashes. The findings do not vary much across different demographic groups. Overall, gasoline prices have greater effects on less severe crashes and alcohol consumption has greater effects on more severe crashes. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

30 CFR 203.54 - How does my relief arrangement for an oil and gas lease operate if prices rise sharply?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... gas lease operate if prices rise sharply? 203.54 Section 203.54 Mineral Resources MINERALS MANAGEMENT... arrangement for an oil and gas lease operate if prices rise sharply? In those months when your current reference price rises by at least 25 percent above your base reference price, you must pay the effective...

Climate change and the macroeconomic structure in pre-industrial europe: new evidence from wavelet analysis.

PubMed

Pei, Qing; Zhang, David D; Li, Guodong; Lee, Harry F

2015-01-01

The relationship between climate change and the macroeconomy in pre-industrial Europe has attracted considerable attention in recent years. This study follows the combined paradigms of evolutionary economics and ecological economics, in which wavelet analysis (spectrum analysis and coherence analysis) is applied as the first attempt to examine the relationship between climate change and the macroeconomic structure in pre-industrial Europe in the frequency domain. Aside from confirming previous results, this study aims to further substantiate the association between climate change and macroeconomy by presenting new evidence obtained from the wavelet analysis. Our spectrum analysis shows a consistent and continuous frequency band of 60-80 years in the temperature, grain yield ratio, grain price, consumer price index, and real wage throughout the study period. Besides, coherence analysis shows that the macroeconomic structure is shaped more by climate change than population change. In addition, temperature is proven as a key climatic factor that influences the macroeconomic structure. The analysis reveals a unique frequency band of about 20 years (15-35 years) in the temperature in AD1600-1700, which could have contributed to the widespread economic crisis in pre-industrial Europe. Our findings may have indications in re-examining the Malthusian theory.

Climate Change and the Macroeconomic Structure in Pre-Industrial Europe: New Evidence from Wavelet Analysis

PubMed Central

Pei, Qing; Zhang, David D.; Li, Guodong; Lee, Harry F.

2015-01-01

The relationship between climate change and the macroeconomy in pre-industrial Europe has attracted considerable attention in recent years. This study follows the combined paradigms of evolutionary economics and ecological economics, in which wavelet analysis (spectrum analysis and coherence analysis) is applied as the first attempt to examine the relationship between climate change and the macroeconomic structure in pre-industrial Europe in the frequency domain. Aside from confirming previous results, this study aims to further substantiate the association between climate change and macroeconomy by presenting new evidence obtained from the wavelet analysis. Our spectrum analysis shows a consistent and continuous frequency band of 60–80 years in the temperature, grain yield ratio, grain price, consumer price index, and real wage throughout the study period. Besides, coherence analysis shows that the macroeconomic structure is shaped more by climate change than population change. In addition, temperature is proven as a key climatic factor that influences the macroeconomic structure. The analysis reveals a unique frequency band of about 20 years (15–35 years) in the temperature in AD1600-1700, which could have contributed to the widespread economic crisis in pre-industrial Europe. Our findings may have indications in re-examining the Malthusian theory. PMID:26039087

75 FR 49411 - Consumer Price Index Adjustments of Oil Pollution Act of 1990 Limits of Liability-Vessels and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-08-13

... collection OMB Control Number 1625-0046 entitled ``Financial Responsibility for Water Pollution (Vessels... Consumer Price Index Adjustments of Oil Pollution Act of 1990 Limits of Liability--Vessels and Deepwater..., the Coast Guard amended the Oil Pollution Act of 1990 limits of liability for vessels and deepwater...

Essays in applied macroeconomics: Asymmetric price adjustment, exchange rate and treatment effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Jingping

This dissertation consists of three essays. Chapter II examines the possible asymmetric response of gasoline prices to crude oil price changes using an error correction model with GARCH errors. Recent papers have looked at this issue. Some of these papers estimate a form of error correction model, but none of them accounts for autoregressive heteroskedasticity in estimation and testing for asymmetry and none of them takes the response of crude oil price into consideration. We find that time-varying volatility of gasoline price disturbances is an important feature of the data, and when we allow for asymmetric GARCH errors and investigate the system wide impulse response function, we find evidence of asymmetric adjustment to crude oil price changes in weekly retail gasoline prices. Chapter III discusses the relationship between fiscal deficit and exchange rate. Economic theory predicts that fiscal deficits can significantly affect real exchange rate movements, but existing empirical evidence reports only a weak impact of fiscal deficits on exchange rates. Based on US dollar-based real exchange rates in G5 countries and a flexible varying coefficient model, we show that the previously documented weak relationship between fiscal deficits and exchange rates may be the result of additive specifications, and that the relationship is stronger if we allow fiscal deficits to impact real exchange rates non-additively as well as nonlinearly. We find that the speed of exchange rate adjustment toward equilibrium depends on the state of the fiscal deficit; a fiscal contraction in the US can lead to less persistence in the deviation of exchange rates from fundamentals, and faster mean reversion to the equilibrium. Chapter IV proposes a kernel method to deal with the nonparametric regression model with only discrete covariates as regressors. This new approach is based on recently developed least squares cross-validation kernel smoothing method. It can not only automatically smooth

Analysis of the impact of crude oil price fluctuations on China's stock market in different periods-Based on time series network model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, Yang; Sun, Mei; Gao, Cuixia; Han, Dun; Li, Xiuming

2018-02-01

This paper studies the influence of Brent oil price fluctuations on the stock prices of China's two distinct blocks, namely, the petrochemical block and the electric equipment and new energy block, applying the Shannon entropy of information theory. The co-movement trend of crude oil price and stock prices is divided into different fluctuation patterns with the coarse-graining method. Then, the bivariate time series network model is established for the two blocks stock in five different periods. By joint analysis of the network-oriented metrics, the key modes and underlying evolutionary mechanisms were identified. The results show that the both networks have different fluctuation characteristics in different periods. Their co-movement patterns are clustered in some key modes and conversion intermediaries. The study not only reveals the lag effect of crude oil price fluctuations on the stock in Chinese industry blocks but also verifies the necessity of research on special periods, and suggests that the government should use different energy policies to stabilize market volatility in different periods. A new way is provided to study the unidirectional influence between multiple variables or complex time series.

Observed oil and gas field size distributions: A consequence of the discovery process and prices of oil and gas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Drew, L.J.; Attanasi, E.D.; Schuenemeyer, J.H.

1988-01-01

If observed oil and gas field size distributions are obtained by random samplings, the fitted distributions should approximate that of the parent population of oil and gas fields. However, empirical evidence strongly suggests that larger fields tend to be discovered earlier in the discovery process than they would be by random sampling. Economic factors also can limit the number of small fields that are developed and reported. This paper examines observed size distributions in state and federal waters of offshore Texas. Results of the analysis demonstrate how the shape of the observable size distributions change with significant hydrocarbon price changes. Comparison of state and federal observed size distributions in the offshore area shows how production cost differences also affect the shape of the observed size distribution. Methods for modifying the discovery rate estimation procedures when economic factors significantly affect the discovery sequence are presented. A primary conclusion of the analysis is that, because hydrocarbon price changes can significantly affect the observed discovery size distribution, one should not be confident about inferring the form and specific parameters of the parent field size distribution from the observed distributions. ?? 1988 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

Implications of Increasing Light Tight Oil Production for U.S. Refining

EIA Publications

2015-01-01

EIA retained Turner, Mason & Company to provide analysis of the implications of increasing domestic light tight oil production for U.S. refining, focusing on regional crude supply/demand balances, refinery crude slates, operations, capital investment, product yields, crude oil exports/imports, petroleum product exports, infrastructure constraints and expansions, and crude oil price relationships.

The relationship between advertising, price, and nursing home quality.

PubMed

Kash, Bita A; Miller, Thomas R

2009-01-01

Theoretically, nursing homes should engage in advertising for the following two reasons: (a) to improve awareness of the services offered in a particular market and (b) to signal high-quality services. In this study, we build upon results from prior studies of nursing home advertising activity, market competition, and quality. The purpose of this study was to examine the association between advertising expenses, price, and quality. We focused on answering the question: Do nursing homes use advertising and price to signal superior quality? The Texas Nursing Facilities Medicaid Cost Report, the Texas Quality Reporting System, and the Area Resource File were merged for the year 2003. We used three alternative measures of quality to improve the robustness of this exploratory analysis. Quality measures were examined using Bonferroni correlation coefficient analysis. Associations between advertising expenses and quality were evaluated using three regression models predicting quality. We also examined the association of the price of a private bed per day with quality. Advertising expenses were not associated with better nursing home quality as measured by three quality scales. The average price customers pay for one private bed per day was associated with better quality only in one of the three quality regression models. The price of nursing home care might be a better indicator of quality and necessary to increase as quality of care is improved in the nursing homes sector. Because more advertising expenditures are not necessarily associated with better quality, consumers could be mislead by advertisements and choose poor quality nursing homes. Nursing home administrators should focus on customer relationship management tools instead of expensive advertising. Relationship management tools are proven marketing techniques for the health services sector, usually less expensive than advertising, and help with staff retention and quality outcomes.

Monthly petroleum product price report, November 1981

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1982-03-03

This report provides Congress and the public with information on monthly national weighted average prices for refined petroleum products (motor gasoline, diesel fuels, residual fuel oils, aviation fuels, kerosene, petrochemical feedstocks, heating oils, and liquefied petroleum gases). The data published are the primary source of price data for refined products for the refining, reselling, and retailing sectors necessary for the Department of Energy to execute its role in monitoring prices. In addition, the data provide the information necessary for Congress, DOE, and the public to perform analyses and projections related to energy supplies, demands, and prices. Price data in thismore » publication were collected from separate surveys. Average prices are derived from a survey of refiners, large resellers and/or retailers, and independent gas plant operators. Data from this monthly survey are available from July 1975. Average No. 2 heating oil prices were derived from a sample survey of refiners, resellers, and retailers who sell heating oil. The geographic coverage for this report is the 50 states and the District of Columbia.« less

Monthly petroleum product price report, December 1981

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1982-03-30

This report provides Congress and the public with information on monthly national weighted average prices for refined petroleum products (motor gasoline, diesel fuels, residual fuel oils, aviation fuels, kerosene, petrochemical feedstocks, heating oils, and liquefied petroleum gases). The data published are the primary source of price data for refined products for the refining, reselling, and retailing sectors necessary for the Department of Energy to execute its role in monitoring prices. In addition, the data provide the information necessary for Congress, DOE, and the public to perform analyses and projections related to energy supplies, demands, and prices. Price data in thismore » publication were collected from separate surveys. Average prices are derived from a survey of refiners, large resellers and/or retailers, and independent gas plant operators. Data from this monthly survey are available from July 1975. Average No. 2 heating oil prices were derived from a sample survey of refiners, resellers, and retailers who sell heating oil. The geographic coverage for this report is the 50 states and the District of Columbia.« less

Relationship between efficiency and predictability in stock price change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eom, Cheoljun; Oh, Gabjin; Jung, Woo-Sung

2008-09-01

In this study, we evaluate the relationship between efficiency and predictability in the stock market. The efficiency, which is the issue addressed by the weak-form efficient market hypothesis, is calculated using the Hurst exponent and the approximate entropy (ApEn). The predictability corresponds to the hit-rate; this is the rate of consistency between the direction of the actual price change and that of the predicted price change, as calculated via the nearest neighbor prediction method. We determine that the Hurst exponent and the ApEn value are negatively correlated. However, predictability is positively correlated with the Hurst exponent.

17 CFR 229.1204 - (Item 1204) Oil and gas production, production prices and production costs.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false (Item 1204) Oil and gas production, production prices and production costs. 229.1204 Section 229.1204 Commodity and Securities Exchanges SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION STANDARD INSTRUCTIONS FOR FILING FORMS UNDER SECURITIES ACT OF...

Inventories, oil shocks, and aggregate economic behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrera, Ana Maria

This dissertation examines the relationship between oil price shocks and aggregate economic behavior in the U.S. The first chapter addresses the effects of changes in the price of crude oil on the manufacturing sector in VAR regressions and in a structural linear quadratic inventory model. It finds that oil price increases lead to reductions in manufacturing activity while oil price falls are not followed by booms. This asymmetry in the response of the manufacturing activity, the changes in the composition of the demand, and the large variations in sales of key investment and consumption goods favor a multi-channel transmission mechanism. The analysis shows that differences in the response of the various industrial sectors are determined by the cost structure of the industry as well as by the dynamics of the demand, cost and oil shocks. Positive oil price shocks are first transmitted from the transportation equipment industry to sectors such as primary metals products, rubber and plastics and textiles, later affecting the remaining sectors and the aggregates. In the short run inventories act as a buffer however, one and a half years after the shock significant production cuts do take place. Sluggishness in the response of aggregate output can be accounted by the behavior of inventories as well as by the time lags implied in the propagation from one industry to the remaining sectors and the aggregate. The second chapter studies the role of oil prices and monetary policy in accounting for business cycles in an identified VAR framework. It finds that the slowdown in GDP growth that follows an oil shock can not be solely explained by the response of the Fed's monetary policy. An "exogenous" monetary policy that holds the fed funds rate fixed would exert a large expansionary effect. Nevertheless, conditional on this policy, the reduction in economic activity persists and the price level increases leading to a sharp reduction in the short-term interest rate. In addition

The Relationship between Commercial Health Care Prices and Medicare Spending and Utilization.

PubMed

Romley, John A; Axeen, Sarah; Lakdawalla, Darius N; Chernew, Michael E; Bhattacharya, Jay; Goldman, Dana P

2015-06-01

To explore the relationship between commercial health care prices and Medicare spending/utilization across U.S. regions. Claims from large employers and Medicare Parts A/B/D over 2007-2009. We compared prices paid by commercial health plans to Medicare spending and utilization, adjusted for beneficiary health and the cost of care, across 301 hospital referral regions. A 10 percent lower commercial price (around the average level) is associated with 3.0 percent higher Medicare spending per member per year, and 4.3 percent more specialist visits (p < .01). Commercial health care prices are negatively associated with Medicare spending across regions. Providers may respond to low commercial prices by shifting service volume into Medicare. Further investigation is needed to establish causality. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Monthly Petroleum Product Price Report, October 1981

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1981-01-01

Data are reported on the prices of petroleum products for the period January 1980 through October 1981. The following products are included in the survey: gasoline, diesel fuels, residual fuels, aviation fuels, kerosene, liquefied petroleum gases heating oils, and No. 5 and No. 6 fuel oils. This report provides Congress and the public with information on monthly national weighted average prices for refined petroleum products. The data published are the primary source of price data for refined products for the refining, reselling, and retailing sectors necessary for the Department of Energy (DOE) to execute its role in monitoring prices. Inmore » addition, the data provide the information necessary for Congress, DOE, and the public to perform analyses and projections related to energy supplies, demands, and prices. Price data in this publication were collected from separate surveys. Average prices are derived from a survey of refiners, large resellers and/or retailers, and independent gas plant operators. Data from this monthly survey are available from July 1975. Average No. 2 heating oil prices were derived from a sample survey of refiners, resellers, and retailers who sell heating oil. The geographic coverage for this report is the 50 States and the District of Columbia.« less

Middle East oil and gas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1984-12-01

The following subjects are covered in this publication: (1) position of preeminence of the Middle East; (2) history of area's oil operations for Iran, Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, neutral zone, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Oman and Egypt; (3) gas operations of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kuwait, Qatar, Iraq and United Arab Emirates; (4) changing relationships with producing countries; (5) a new oil pricing environment; (6) refining and other industrial activities; and (7) change and progress. 10 figs., 12 tabs.

What Drives U.S. Gasoline Prices?

EIA Publications

2014-01-01

This analysis provides context for considering the impact of rising domestic light crude oil production on the price that U.S. consumers pay for gasoline, and provides a framework to consider how changes to existing U.S. crude oil export restrictions might affect gasoline prices.

A Crude Reality; Exploring the Interdependencies of Energy (Oil), the Macro-Economy, and National Security

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-04-11

Policy (SWEEP) optimizing our own natural resources in the near term (oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear, wind, solar, hydro, geothermal and synthetics... geothermal and synthetics), and displaces the oil based economy with a long term energy transformation plan based on renewable energy, is vital to...climb and supply begins to diminish. Global energy demands will continue to rise as the developing economies of countries like Brazil, Russia, China

The Impact of United States Monetary Policy in the Crude Oil futures market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padilla-Padilla, Fernando M.

This research examines the empirical impact the United States monetary policy, through the federal fund interest rate, has on the volatility in the crude oil price in the futures market. Prior research has shown how macroeconomic events and variables have impacted different financial markets within short and long--term movements. After testing and decomposing the variables, the two stationary time series were analyzed using a Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR). The empirical evidence shows, with statistical significance, a direct relationship when explaining crude oil prices as function of fed fund rates (t-1) and an indirect relationship when explained as a function of fed fund rates (t-2). These results partially address the literature review lacunas within the topic of the existing implication monetary policy has within the crude oil futures market.

Three essays on price dynamics and causations among energy markets and macroeconomic information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Sung Wook

This dissertation examines three important issues in energy markets: price dynamics, information flow, and structural change. We discuss each issue in detail, building empirical time series models, analyzing the results, and interpreting the findings. First, we examine the contemporaneous interdependencies and information flows among crude oil, natural gas, and electricity prices in the United States (US) through the multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) model, Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) for contemporaneous causal structures and Bernanke factorization for price dynamic processes. Test results show that the DAG from residuals of out-of-sample-forecast is consistent with the DAG from residuals of within-sample-fit. The result supports innovation accounting analysis based on DAGs using residuals of out-of-sample-forecast. Second, we look at the effects of the federal fund rate and/or WTI crude oil price shock on US macroeconomic and financial indicators by using a Factor Augmented Vector Autoregression (FAVAR) model and a graphical model without any deductive assumption. The results show that, in contemporaneous time, the federal fund rate shock is exogenous as the identifying assumption in the Vector Autoregression (VAR) framework of the monetary shock transmission mechanism, whereas the WTI crude oil price return is not exogenous. Third, we examine price dynamics and contemporaneous causality among the price returns of WTI crude oil, gasoline, corn, and the S&P 500. We look for structural break points and then build an econometric model to find the consistent sub-periods having stable parameters in a given VAR framework and to explain recent movements and interdependency among returns. We found strong evidence of two structural breaks and contemporaneous causal relationships among the residuals, but also significant differences between contemporaneous causal structures for each sub-period.

10 CFR 215.5 - Pricing and volume reports.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 10 Energy 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Pricing and volume reports. 215.5 Section 215.5 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OIL COLLECTION OF FOREIGN OIL SUPPLY AGREEMENT INFORMATION § 215.5 Pricing and volume... change (including changes in the timing of collection) by the host government in official selling prices...

10 CFR 215.5 - Pricing and volume reports.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 10 Energy 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Pricing and volume reports. 215.5 Section 215.5 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OIL COLLECTION OF FOREIGN OIL SUPPLY AGREEMENT INFORMATION § 215.5 Pricing and volume reports. To the extent not reported pursuant to § 215.3, any person lifting for export crude oil from a...

Gasoline Prices and Their Relationship to Rising Motorcycle Fatalities, 1990–2007

PubMed Central

Stimpson, Jim P.; Hilsenrath, Peter E.

2009-01-01

Motor vehicle accidents are the leading cause of death among young adults. Although automobile fatalities have declined in recent years, motorcycle fatalities are rapidly increasing. The purpose of our research was to quantify the relationship between changing fuel prices and motorcycle fatalities. Our findings suggest that people increasingly rely on motorcycles to reduce their fuel costs in response to rising gasoline prices. We estimate that use of motorcycles and scooters instead of 4-wheeled vehicles results in over 1500 additional motorcycle fatalities annually for each dollar increase in gas prices. Motorcycle safety should receive more attention as a leading public health issue. PMID:19696374

Extra-virgin olive oil: are consumers provided with the sensory quality they want? A hedonic price model with sensory attributes.

PubMed

Cavallo, Carla; Caracciolo, Francesco; Cicia, Gianni; Del Giudice, Teresa

2018-03-01

Over the years, niche-differentiation strategies and food policies have pushed quality standards of European extra-virgin olive oil towards a product that has a sensory profile consisting of fruity, bitter and pungent notes, with such oils having excellent healthy features. However, it is unclear whether typical consumers are ready for a richer and more complex sensory profile than the neutral one historically found on the market. This potential discrepancy is investigated in the present study aiiming to determine whether current demand is able to appreciate this path of quality enhancement. Implicit prices for each and every attribute of extra-virgin olive oil with a focus on sensory characteristics were investigated using a hedonic price model. Although confirming the importance of origin and terroir for extra-virgin olive oil, the results of the present study strongly confirm the discrepancy between what is currently valued on the market and what novel supply trends are trying to achieve in terms of the sensory properties of such products. Increasing consumer awareness about the direct link between the health quality of oils and their sensory profile appears to be necessary to make quality enhancement programs more successful on the market and hence more effective for companies. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

Oil turmoil

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1979-07-01

A review of US oil production, refining, and retailing reveals the severity of the energy problem and illustrates the confusion over what can be accomplished by decontrolling oil prices. Conflicting statements from members of Congress, the President, and the oil industry have further confused the public. The shortages can be traced to a decline in domestic production incentives and foreign production, a slowdown in refinery expansion because of environmental constraints, competition between home heating oil and gasoline for priority, the failure of states to enforce speed limits, and a national preoccupation with oil profits. Senator Kennedy, for example, advocates continuedmore » price controls with a world-wide drilling program funded by the World Bank, while decontrol advocates feel price controls will only artifically restrain US production. The economic effects of decontrol on inflation are unclear, but conservation efforts, the development of alternative energy sources, and oil development from shale and tar sands are predicted to increase as political rhetoric declines.« less

Monthly petroleum-product price report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1982-07-01

This report provides Congress and the public with information on monthly national weighted average prices for refined petroleum products. the data published are the primary source of price data for refined products for the refining, reselling, and retailing sectors necessary for the Department of Energy (DOE) to execute its role in monitoring prices. In addition, the data provide the information necessary for Congress, DOE, and the public to perform analyses and projections related to energy supplies, demands, and prices. The legislative authority for this survey is the Federal Energy Administration Act of 1974 (PL 93-275). Price data in this publicationmore » were collected fronm separate surveys. Average prices are derived from a survey of refiners, large resellers and/or retailers, and independent gas plant operators. Data from this monthly survey are available from July 1975. Average No. 2 heating oil prices were derived from a sample survye of refiners, resellers, and retailers who sell heating oil. The geographic coverage for this report is the 50 states and the District of Columbia.« less

International Oil Supplies and Demands

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1992-04-01

The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single viewmore » of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.« less

International Oil Supplies and Demands

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1991-09-01

The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single viewmore » of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.« less

Monthly petroleum product price report. [January 1981-January 1982

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Riner, C.

1982-01-01

This report provides information on monthly national weighted average prices for refined petroleum products. The data published are the primary source of price data for refined products for the refining, reselling, and retailing sectors necessary for the Department of Energy (DOE) to execute its role in monitoring prices. In addition, the data provide the information necessary for Congress, DOE, and the public to perform analyses and projections related to energy supplies, demands, and prices. Price data in this publication were collected from separate surveys. Average prices are derived from a survey of refiners, large resellers and/or retailers, and independent gasmore » plant operators. Data from this monthly survey are available from July 1975. Average No. 2 heating oil prices were derived from a sample survey of refiners, resellers, and retailers who sell heating oil. The geographic coverage for this report is the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Data are presented on the following: gasoline, No. 1 and No. 2 diesel fuels, No. 1 and No. 2 heating oils, residual fuel oil, aviation fuels, kerosene, and liquefied petroleum gases.« less

Monthly petroleum product price report. [January 1981-February 1982

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Riner, C.

1982-02-01

This report provides information on monthly national weighted average prices for refined petroleum products. The data published are the primary source of price data for refined products for the refining, reselling, and retailing sectors necessary for the Department of Energy (DOE) to execute its role in monitoring prices. In addition, the data provide the information necessary for Congress, DOE, and the public to perform analyses and projections related to energy supplies, demands, and prices. Price data in this publication were collected from separate surveys. Average prices are derived from a survey of refiners, large resellers and/or retailers, and independent gasmore » plant operators. Data from this monthly survey are available from July 1975. Average No. 2 heating oil prices were derived from a sample survey of refiners, resellers, and retailers who sell heating oil. The geographic coverage for this report is the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Data are presented on the following: gasoline, No. 1 and No. 2 diesel fuels, No. 1 and No. 2 heating oils, residual fuel oil, aviation fuels, kerosene, and liquefied petroleum gases.« less

Motor fuels : California gasoline price behavior

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-04-01

Retail gasoline prices in the United States have risen sharply since early 1999, mostly in response to sharply rising world crude oil prices. Although gasoline prices have, in general, been relatively low for U.S. consumers-compared with both histori...

Higher energy prices are associated with diminished resources, performance and safety in Australian ambulance systems.

PubMed

Brown, Lawrence H; Chaiechi, Taha; Buettner, Petra G; Canyon, Deon V; Crawford, J Mac; Judd, Jenni

2013-02-01

To evaluate the impact of changing energy prices on Australian ambulance systems. Generalised estimating equations were used to analyse contemporaneous and lagged relationships between changes in energy prices and ambulance system performance measures in all Australian State/Territory ambulance systems for the years 2000-2010. Measures included: expenditures per response; labour-to-total expenditure ratio; full-time equivalent employees (FTE) per 10,000 responses; average salary; median and 90th percentile response time; and injury compensation claims. Energy price data included State average diesel price, State average electricity price, and world crude oil price. Changes in diesel prices were inversely associated with changes in salaries, and positively associated with changes in ambulance response times; changes in oil prices were also inversely associated with changes in salaries, as well with staffing levels and expenditures per ambulance response. Changes in electricity prices were positively associated with changes in expenditures per response and changes in salaries; they were also positively associated with changes in injury compensation claims per 100 FTE. Changes in energy prices are associated with changes in Australian ambulance systems' resource, performance and safety characteristics in ways that could affect both patients and personnel. Further research is needed to explore the mechanisms of, and strategies for mitigating, these impacts. The impacts of energy prices on other aspects of the health system should also be investigated. © 2013 The Authors. ANZJPH © 2013 Public Health Association of Australia.

Investor structure and the price-volume relationship in a continuous double auction market: An agent-based modeling perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wei; Bi, Zhengzheng; Shen, Dehua

2017-02-01

This paper investigates the impact of investor structure on the price-volume relationship by simulating a continuous double auction market. Connected with the underlying mechanisms of the price-volume relationship, i.e., the Mixture of Distribution Hypothesis (MDH) and the Sequential Information Arrival Hypothesis (SIAH), the simulation results show that: (1) there exists a strong lead-lag relationship between the return volatility and trading volume when the number of informed investors is close to the number of uninformed investors in the market; (2) as more and more informed investors entering the market, the lead-lag relationship becomes weaker and weaker, while the contemporaneous relationship between the return volatility and trading volume becomes more prominent; (3) when the informed investors are in absolute majority, the market can achieve the new equilibrium immediately. Therefore, we can conclude that the investor structure is a key factor in affecting the price-volume relationship.

An examination of the relationships between hardwood lumber and stumpage prices in Ohio

Treesearch

William G. Luppold; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; John E. Baumgras

1998-01-01

Understanding the relationship between hardwood lumber and stumpage prices is critical in evaluating market efficiency and in understanding the potential impact of changing technology on stumpage markets. Unfortunately, the complexity of the hardwood lumber market and lack of reliable data make it difficult to evaluate this relationship using traditional econometric...

Three essays on agricultural price volatility and the linkages between agricultural and energy markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Feng

This dissertation contains three essays. In the first essay I use a volatility spillover model to find evidence of significant spillovers from crude oil prices to corn cash and futures prices, and that these spillover effects are time-varying. Results reveal that corn markets have become much more connected to crude oil markets after the introduction of the Energy Policy Act of 2005. Furthermore, crude oil prices transmit positive volatility spillovers into corn prices and movements in corn prices become more energy-driven as the ethanol gasoline consumption ratio increases. Based on this strong volatility link between crude oil and corn prices, a new cross hedging strategy for managing corn price risk using oil futures is examined and its performance studied. Results show that this cross hedging strategy provides only slightly better hedging performance compared to traditional hedging in corn futures markets alone. The implication is that hedging corn price risk in corn futures markets alone can still provide relatively satisfactory performance in the biofuel era. The second essay studies the spillover effect of biofuel policy on participation in the Conservation Reserve Program. Landowners' participation decisions are modeled using a real options framework. A novel aspect of the model is that it captures the structural change in agriculture caused by rising biofuel production. The resulting model is used to simulate the spillover effect under various conditions. In particular, I simulate how increased growth in agricultural returns, persistence of the biofuel production boom, and the volatility surrounding agricultural returns, affect conservation program participation decisions. Policy implications of these results are also discussed. The third essay proposes a methodology to construct a risk-adjusted implied volatility measure that removes the forecasting bias of the model-free implied volatility measure. The risk adjustment is based on a closed

Peak Oil, Food Systems, and Public Health

PubMed Central

Parker, Cindy L.; Kirschenmann, Frederick L.; Tinch, Jennifer; Lawrence, Robert S.

2011-01-01

Peak oil is the phenomenon whereby global oil supplies will peak, then decline, with extraction growing increasingly costly. Today's globalized industrial food system depends on oil for fueling farm machinery, producing pesticides, and transporting goods. Biofuels production links oil prices to food prices. We examined food system vulnerability to rising oil prices and the public health consequences. In the short term, high food prices harm food security and equity. Over time, high prices will force the entire food system to adapt. Strong preparation and advance investment may mitigate the extent of dislocation and hunger. Certain social and policy changes could smooth adaptation; public health has an essential role in promoting a proactive, smart, and equitable transition that increases resilience and enables adequate food for all. PMID:21778492

Thailand's energy security: Strategic Petroleum Reserve and its economic impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leesombatpiboon, Poonpat

This dissertation studies Thailand's energy security from three related perspectives, the role of oil on the Thai macroeconomy, the sectoral demand for oil in Thailand, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) policy for the Thai economy. The first part of my dissertation estimates an error correction model of aggregate production function for Thailand. Thai economic growth is modeled as a function of labor, capital, and oil consumption. Unlike previous studies that focus on testing the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, I focus on measuring the elasticity of economic growth with respect to oil consumption and oil prices. I find a cointegration relationship between GDP, capital, labor, and oil consumption. The results suggest that there exists a constant-return-to-scale characteristic in Thailand's aggregate production function with the contribution of labor, oil, and capital to output around 68, 19, and 13 percent respectively. The long-run and short-run contribution of oil consumption to the economy appears to be fairly close, suggesting that oil has a critical role in the Thai economy. In the short run, oil shortages have a much more severe impact on Thai economy than the effects of an oil price shock. For example, a 10 percent shortfall in oil consumption might cause economic growth to shrink by 2 percent within the same year while a sharp10 percent rise in oil prices canlead output growth to a fall by about 0.5 percent. The response of output to increases and decreases in oil prices is found to be asymmetric in the short run. The second part of my dissertation examines the short-run and long-run determinants of final oil consumption in seven major economic sectors in Thailand. Two different approaches are compared. The first approach uses dynamic panel data estimation techniques taking into account oil consumption of the whole economy in an aggregate manner. The second approach employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ADL

Trading network predicts stock price.

PubMed

Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi

2014-01-16

Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem for studying financial markets. Existing studies are mainly based on the time series of stock price or the operation performance of listed company. In this paper, we propose to predict stock price based on investors' trading behavior. For each stock, we characterize the daily trading relationship among its investors using a trading network. We then classify the nodes of trading network into three roles according to their connectivity pattern. Strong Granger causality is found between stock price and trading relationship indices, i.e., the fraction of trading relationship among nodes with different roles. We further predict stock price by incorporating these trading relationship indices into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 51 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of trading relationship indices.

A High-Dimensional, Multivariate Copula Approach to Modeling Multivariate Agricultural Price Relationships and Tail Dependencies

Treesearch

Xuan Chi; Barry Goodwin

2012-01-01

Spatial and temporal relationships among agricultural prices have been an important topic of applied research for many years. Such research is used to investigate the performance of markets and to examine linkages up and down the marketing chain. This research has empirically evaluated price linkages by using correlation and regression models and, later, linear and...

Trading Network Predicts Stock Price

PubMed Central

Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi

2014-01-01

Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem for studying financial markets. Existing studies are mainly based on the time series of stock price or the operation performance of listed company. In this paper, we propose to predict stock price based on investors' trading behavior. For each stock, we characterize the daily trading relationship among its investors using a trading network. We then classify the nodes of trading network into three roles according to their connectivity pattern. Strong Granger causality is found between stock price and trading relationship indices, i.e., the fraction of trading relationship among nodes with different roles. We further predict stock price by incorporating these trading relationship indices into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 51 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of trading relationship indices. PMID:24429767

Review and outlook for the world oil market. World Bank discussion paper

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Streifel, S.S.

1995-12-01

The objectives of the study are: (1) to review historical developments in world oil and energy markets; (2) review past and recent forecasts of oil prices and oil markets; and (3) project world oil demand, supply and prices to 2010. A major aim of the study is to take a view on long term oil prices rather than present several alternative scenarios. A basic conclusion of the paper is that significantly higher or lower real oil prices are less likely than a continuance of present price levels, although there is a fairly wide band in which oil prices could reasonablymore » be expected to fluctuate or be sustained, i.e., the low `teens` to the the low $20s per barrel range. OPEC is expected to continue to limit output to keep oil prices well above the long term competitive costs of productions. Consequently the oil market is expected to remain volatile and unstable, although somewhat more stable than during the early 1980s when oil prices were far too high to be sustained. Although upward oil price shocks are likely, a greater risk to the forecast in the near-to-medium term is for a further decline in real oil prices. (Copyright (c) 1995 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank.)« less

Essays on Commodity Prices and Macroeconomic Performance of Developing and Resources Rich Economies: Evidence from Kazakhstan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilgin, Ferhat I.

My dissertation consists of three essays in empirical macroeconomics. The objective of this research is to use rigorous time-series econometric analysis to investigate the impact of commodity prices on macroeconomic performance of a small, developing and resource-rich country, which is in the process of transition from a purely command and control economy to a market oriented one. Essay 1 studies the relationship between Kazakhstan's GDP, total government expenditure, real effective exchange rate and the world oil price. Specifically, I use the cointegrated vector autoregression (CVAR) and error correction modeling (ECM) approach to identify the long and short-run relations that may exist among these macroeconomic variables. I found a long-run relationship for Kazakhstan's GDP, which depends on government spending and the oil price positively, and on the real effective exchange rate negatively. In the short run, the growth rate of GDP depends on the growth rates of the oil price, investment and the magnitude of the deviation from the long-run equilibrium. Essay 2 studies the inflation process in Kazakhstan based on the analysis of price formation in the following sectors: monetary, external, labor and goods and services. The modeling is conducted from two different perspectives: the first is the monetary model of inflation framework and the second is the mark-up modeling framework. Encompassing test results show that the mark-up model performs better than the monetary model in explaining inflation in Kazakhstan. According to the mark-up inflation model, in the long run, the price level is positively related to unit labor costs, import prices and government administered prices as well the world oil prices. In the short run, the inflation is positively influenced by the previous quarter's inflation, the contemporaneous changes in the government administered prices, oil prices and by the changes of contemporaneous and lagged unit labor costs, and negatively affected

Dependence and risk assessment for oil prices and exchange rate portfolios: A wavelet based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aloui, Chaker; Jammazi, Rania

2015-10-01

In this article, we propose a wavelet-based approach to accommodate the stylized facts and complex structure of financial data, caused by frequent and abrupt changes of markets and noises. Specifically, we show how the combination of both continuous and discrete wavelet transforms with traditional financial models helps improve portfolio's market risk assessment. In the empirical stage, three wavelet-based models (wavelet-EGARCH with dynamic conditional correlations, wavelet-copula, and wavelet-extreme value) are considered and applied to crude oil price and US dollar exchange rate data. Our findings show that the wavelet-based approach provides an effective and powerful tool for detecting extreme moments and improving the accuracy of VaR and Expected Shortfall estimates of oil-exchange rate portfolios after noise is removed from the original data.

Dynamics relationship between stock prices and economic variables in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chun, Ooi Po; Arsad, Zainudin; Huen, Tan Bee

2014-07-01

Knowledge on linkages between stock prices and macroeconomic variables are essential in the formulation of effective monetary policy. This study investigates the relationship between stock prices in Malaysia (KLCI) with four selected macroeconomic variables, namely industrial production index (IPI), quasi money supply (MS2), real exchange rate (REXR) and 3-month Treasury bill (TRB). The variables used in this study are monthly data from 1996 to 2012. Vector error correction (VEC) model and Kalman filter (KF) technique are utilized to assess the impact of macroeconomic variables on the stock prices. The results from the cointegration test revealed that the stock prices and macroeconomic variables are cointegrated. Different from the constant estimate from the static VEC model, the KF estimates noticeably exhibit time-varying attributes over the entire sample period. The varying estimates of the impact coefficients should be better reflect the changing economic environment. Surprisingly, IPI is negatively related to the KLCI with the estimates of the impact slowly increase and become positive in recent years. TRB is found to be generally negatively related to the KLCI with the impact fluctuating along the constant estimate of the VEC model. The KF estimates for REXR and MS2 show a mixture of positive and negative impact on the KLCI. The coefficients of error correction term (ECT) are negative in majority of the sample period, signifying the stock prices responded to stabilize any short term deviation in the economic system. The findings from the KF model indicate that any implication that is based on the usual static model may lead to authorities implementing less appropriate policies.

Impact of cross-reference pricing on pharmaceutical prices: manufacturers' pricing strategies and price regulation.

PubMed

Stargardt, Tom; Schreyögg, Jonas

2006-01-01

Several EU countries are determining reimbursement prices of pharmaceuticals by cross-referencing prices of foreign countries. Our objective is to quantify the theoretical cross-border spill-over effects of cross-reference pricing schemes on pharmaceutical prices in the former EU-15 countries. An analytical model was developed estimating the impact of pharmaceutical price changes in Germany on pharmaceutical prices in other countries in the former EU-15 using cross-reference pricing. We differentiated between the direct impact (from referencing to Germany directly) and the indirect impact (from referencing to other countries that conduct their own cross-reference pricing schemes). The relationship between the direct and indirect impact of a price change depends mainly on the method applied to set reimbursement prices. When applying cross-reference pricing, the reimbursement price is either determined by the lowest of foreign prices (e.g. Portugal), the average of foreign prices (e.g. Ireland) or a weighted average of foreign prices (e.g. Italy). If the respective drug is marketed in all referenced countries and prices are regularly updated, a price reduction of 1.00 euro in Germany will reduce maximum reimbursement prices in the former EU-15 countries from 0.15 euros in Austria to 0.36 euros in Italy. On one side, the cross-border spill-over effects of price reductions are undoubtedly welcomed by decision makers and may be favourable to the healthcare system in general. On the other side, these cross-border spill-over effects also provide strong incentives for strategic product launches, launch delays and lobbying activities, and can affect the effectiveness of regulation. To avoid the negative effects of cross-reference pricing, a weighted index of prices from as many countries as possible should be used to determine reimbursement prices in order to reduce the direct and indirect impact of individual countries.

Three essays in corporate finance: Examining the influence of government ownership and evaluating crude oil arbitrage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holland, Kateryna

The aim of this dissertation is twofold: first, to evaluate how governments influence firms in which they invest (chapters one and two), and second, to examine arbitrage in the crude oil market by investigating the relationship between crude oil inventories, physical prices, and financial prices (chapter three). In the first chapter (The Wealth Effects of Government Investment in Publicly Traded Firms), I study how government share ownership affects shareholder wealth. I find that government investments with higher likelihood of political interference have a negative influence on shareholder wealth, while the opposite is true for government investments with economic objectives. In the second chapter (Government Ownership and the Cost of Debt: Evidence form Government Investment in Publicly Traded Firms), I investigate how government share ownership affects the cost of debt of publicly traded firms. I find that government ownership generally leads to a higher cost of debt, except for times of economic and firm distress, when the value of the implicit government guarantee is associated with a reduction in the cost of debt. In the third chapter (Financial Trading, Spot Oil Prices, and Inventory: Evidence from the U.S. Crude Oil Market), I confirm the existence of an active cash and carry market in crude oil in Cushing, OK, the main U.S. crude oil futures settlement location. In other words, crude oil inventories in Cushing, but not in any other U.S. crude oil storage locations, are explained by the spread between the financial and the physical price of oil in addition to operational factors.

International Oil Supplies and Demands. Volume 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1991-09-01

The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world`s dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single viewmore » of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group`s thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.« less

International Oil Supplies and Demands. Volume 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1992-04-01

The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world`s dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single viewmore » of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group`s thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.« less

Do oil shocks predict economic policy uncertainty?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rehman, Mobeen Ur

2018-05-01

Oil price fluctuations have influential role in global economic policies for developed as well as emerging countries. I investigate the role of international oil prices disintegrated into structural (i) oil supply shock, (ii) aggregate demand shock and (iii) oil market specific demand shocks, based on the work of Kilian (2009) using structural VAR framework on economic policies uncertainty of sampled markets. Economic policy uncertainty, due to its non-linear behavior is modeled in a regime switching framework with disintegrated structural oil shocks. Our results highlight that Indian, Spain and Japanese economic policy uncertainty responds to the global oil price shocks, however aggregate demand shocks fail to induce any change. Oil specific demand shocks are significant only for China and India in high volatility state.

Oil shocks in New Keynesian models: Positive and normative implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Jian

Chapter 1 investigates optimal monetary policy response towards oil shocks in a New Keynesian model. We find that optimal policy, in general, becomes contractionary in response to an adverse oil shock. However, the optimal policy rule and the inflation-output trade-off depend on the specific structure of the model. The benchmark economy consists of a flexible-price energy sector and a sticky-price manufacturing sector where energy is used as an intermediate input. We show that optimal policy is to stabilize the sticky (core) price level. We then show that after incorporating a less oil-dependent sticky-price service sector, the model exhibits a trade-off in stabilizing prices and output gaps in the different sticky-price sectors. It predicts that central bank should not try to stabilize the core price level, and the economy will experience higher inflation and rising output gaps, even if central banks respond optimally. Chapter 2 addresses the observed volatility and persistence of real exchange rates and the terms of trade. It contributes to the literature with a quantitative study on the U.S. and Canada. A two-country New Keynesian model consisting of traded, non-traded, and oil production sectors is proposed to examine the time series properties of the real exchange rate, the terms of trade and the real oil price. We find that after incorporating several realistic features (namely oil price shocks, sector specific labor, non-traded goods, asymmetric pricing decisions of exporters and asymmetric consumer preferences over tradables), the benchmark model broadly matches the volatilities of the relative prices and some business cycle correlations. The model matches the data more closely after adding real demand shocks, suggesting their importance in explaining the relative price movements between the US and Canada. Chapter 3 explores several sources and transmission channels of international relative price movements. In particular, we elaborate on the role of

World oil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sweeney, J. L.

1982-06-01

Results obtained through the application of 10 prominent world oil or world energy models to 12 scenarios are reported. These scenarios were designed to bound the range of likely future world oil market outcomes. Conclusions relate to oil market trends, impacts of policies on oil prices, security of oil supplies, impacts of policies on oil security problems, use of the oil import premium in policymaking, the transition to oil substitutes, and the state of the art of world oil modeling.

Two-component mixture model: Application to palm oil and exchange rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phoong, Seuk-Yen; Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Hamzah, Firdaus Mohamad

2014-12-01

Palm oil is a seed crop which is widely adopt for food and non-food products such as cookie, vegetable oil, cosmetics, household products and others. Palm oil is majority growth in Malaysia and Indonesia. However, the demand for palm oil is getting growth and rapidly running out over the years. This phenomenal cause illegal logging of trees and destroy the natural habitat. Hence, the present paper investigates the relationship between exchange rate and palm oil price in Malaysia by using Maximum Likelihood Estimation via Newton-Raphson algorithm to fit a two components mixture model. Besides, this paper proposes a mixture of normal distribution to accommodate with asymmetry characteristics and platykurtic time series data.

The relationship between gasoline price and patterns of motorcycle fatalities and injuries.

PubMed

Zhu, He; Wilson, Fernando A; Stimpson, Jim P

2015-06-01

Economic factors such as rising gasoline prices may contribute to the crash trends by shaping individuals' choices of transportation modalities. This study examines the relationship of gasoline prices with fatal and non-fatal motorcycle injuries. Data on fatal and non-fatal motorcycle injuries come from California's Statewide Integrated Traffic Records System for 2002-2011. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) regressions were used to estimate the impact of inflation-adjusted gasoline price per gallon on trends of motorcycle injuries. Motorcycle fatalities and severe and minor injuries in California were highly correlated with increasing gasoline prices from 2002 to 2011 (r=0.76, 0.88 and 0.85, respectively). In 2008, the number of fatalities and injuries reached 13,457--a 34% increase since 2002, a time period in which inflation-adjusted gasoline prices increased about $0.30 per gallon every year. The majority of motorcycle riders involved in crashes were male (92.5%), middle-aged (46.2%) and non-Hispanic white (67.9%). Using ARIMA modelling, we estimated that rising gasoline prices resulted in an additional 800 fatalities and 10,290 injuries from 2002 to 2011 in California. Our findings suggest that increasing gasoline prices led to more motorcycle riders on the roads and, consequently, more injuries. Aside from mandatory helmet laws and their enforcement, other strategies may include raising risk awareness of motorcyclists and investment in public transportation as an alternative transportation modality to motorcycling. In addition, universally mandated training courses and strict licensing tests of riding skills should be emphasised to help reduce the motorcycle fatal and non-fatal injuries. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Relationship between the Uncompensated Price Elasticity and the Income Elasticity of Demand under Conditions of Additive Preferences.

PubMed

Sabatelli, Lorenzo

2016-01-01

Income and price elasticity of demand quantify the responsiveness of markets to changes in income and in prices, respectively. Under the assumptions of utility maximization and preference independence (additive preferences), mathematical relationships between income elasticity values and the uncompensated own and cross price elasticity of demand are here derived using the differential approach to demand analysis. Key parameters are: the elasticity of the marginal utility of income, and the average budget share. The proposed method can be used to forecast the direct and indirect impact of price changes and of financial instruments of policy using available estimates of the income elasticity of demand.

Implications of Peak Oil for Industrialized Societies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McPherson, Guy R.; Weltzin, Jake F.

2008-01-01

The world passed the halfway point of oil supply in 2005. World demand for oil likely will severely outstrip supply in 2008, leading to increasingly higher oil prices. Consequences are likely to include increasing gasoline prices, rapidly increasing inflation, and subsequently a series of increasingly severe recessions followed by a worldwide…

40 CFR 312.29 - The relationship of the purchase price to the value of the property, if the property was not...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 27 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false The relationship of the purchase price... COMMUNITY RIGHT-TO-KNOW PROGRAMS INNOCENT LANDOWNERS, STANDARDS FOR CONDUCTING ALL APPROPRIATE INQUIRIES Standards and Practices § 312.29 The relationship of the purchase price to the value of the property, if the...

Oil shortages, climate change and collective action.

PubMed

Newbery, David

2011-05-13

Concerns over future oil scarcity might not be so worrying but for the high carbon content of substitutes, and the limited capacity of the atmosphere to absorb additional CO(2) from burning fuel. The paper argues that the tools of economics are helpful in understanding some of the key issues in pricing fossil fuels, the extent to which pricing can be left to markets, the need for, and design of, international agreements on corrective carbon pricing, and the potential Prisoners' Dilemma in reaching such agreements, partly mitigated in the case of oil by current taxes and the probable incidence of carbon taxes on the oil price. The 'Green Paradox', in which carbon pricing exacerbates climate change, is theoretically possible, but empirically unlikely. © 2011 Royal Society

The Soviet-West European Energy Relationship: Implications of the Shift from Oil to Gas,

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-06-01

Western oil majors, such as Shell and Jersey Standard, to market Soviet oil, as they had for a time after the revolution C3). ’.o S ...I’ rn ) ra " G 1 S V P marketing ano price 31sco-its 3%so cOnrrZten t, tnl s raoi ;growth. The U)SSR re-esta:;1.snec its na <ez, ina neCork i . es er...On the Other hand, the weak market conditions, as well as the con- straints on the supply side, inhibit Soviet abilities to pursue this old strategy

Relationship between the Uncompensated Price Elasticity and the Income Elasticity of Demand under Conditions of Additive Preferences

PubMed Central

Sabatelli, Lorenzo

2016-01-01

Income and price elasticity of demand quantify the responsiveness of markets to changes in income and in prices, respectively. Under the assumptions of utility maximization and preference independence (additive preferences), mathematical relationships between income elasticity values and the uncompensated own and cross price elasticity of demand are here derived using the differential approach to demand analysis. Key parameters are: the elasticity of the marginal utility of income, and the average budget share. The proposed method can be used to forecast the direct and indirect impact of price changes and of financial instruments of policy using available estimates of the income elasticity of demand. PMID:26999511

National Association Links, Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission,

Science.gov Websites

Oil and Gas Conservation Commission Alaska Department of Administration, Alaska Oil and Gas Guidelines Regulatory Regulations Statutes Industry Guidance Bulletins Memorandums of Agreement Links Oil Field Terms (Schlumberger) Spot Price Information (DOE) West Coast Price - NS Oil (DOR) Calendar State

Tests for Long-Run Relationships in Hardwood Lumber Prices

Treesearch

William G. Luppold; Jeffrey P. Prestemon

2003-01-01

Hardwood lumber prices are unique because of the large number of marketable species and variability of prices across species. Previous research showed that long-run fashion decisions regarding species selection may be influenced by price, so the interaction between fashion and species price may act to keep prices (hence, demand) of different hardwood species together...

Applications of GARCH models to energy commodities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Humphreys, H. Brett

This thesis uses GARCH methods to examine different aspects of the energy markets. The first part of the thesis examines seasonality in the variance. This study modifies the standard univariate GARCH models to test for seasonal components in both the constant and the persistence in natural gas, heating oil and soybeans. These commodities exhibit seasonal price movements and, therefore, may exhibit seasonal variances. In addition, the heating oil model is tested for a structural change in variance during the Gulf War. The results indicate the presence of an annual seasonal component in the persistence for all commodities. Out-of-sample volatility forecasting for natural gas outperforms standard forecasts. The second part of this thesis uses a multivariate GARCH model to examine volatility spillovers within the crude oil forward curve and between the London and New York crude oil futures markets. Using these results the effect of spillovers on dynamic hedging is examined. In addition, this research examines cointegration within the oil markets using investable returns rather than fixed prices. The results indicate the presence of strong volatility spillovers between both markets, weak spillovers from the front of the forward curve to the rest of the curve, and cointegration between the long term oil price on the two markets. The spillover dynamic hedge models lead to a marginal benefit in terms of variance reduction, but a substantial decrease in the variability of the dynamic hedge; thereby decreasing the transactions costs associated with the hedge. The final portion of the thesis uses portfolio theory to demonstrate how the energy mix consumed in the United States could be chosen given a national goal to reduce the risks to the domestic macroeconomy of unanticipated energy price shocks. An efficient portfolio frontier of U.S. energy consumption is constructed using a covariance matrix estimated with GARCH models. The results indicate that while the electric

Effects of Removing Restrictions on U.S. Crude Oil Exports

EIA Publications

2015-01-01

This report examines the implications of removing current restrictions on U.S. crude oil exports for the price of domestic and global marker crude oil streams, gasoline prices, domestic crude oil production, domestic refining activity, and trade in crude oil and petroleum products.

Monthly petroleum product price report. [January 1981-March 1982

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Riner, C.

1982-03-01

Data are reported on the prices of petroleum products for the period January 1981 through March 1982. The following products are included in the survey: gasoline, diesel fuels, No. 1 and No. 2 heating oils, No. 5 and No. 6 fuel oils, aviation fuels, residual fuels, kerosene and liquefied petroleum gases. Prices are also indexed according to ultimate consumer. This report provides Congress and the public with information on monthly national weighted average prices for refined petroleum products. The data published are the primary source of price data for refined products for the refining, reselling, and retailing sectors necessary formore » the Department of Energy (DOE) to execute its role in monitoring prices. In addition, the data provide the information necessary for Congress, DOE, and the public to perform analyses and projections related to energy supplies, demands, and prices. Price data in this pubication were collected from separate surveys. Average prices are derived from a survey of refiners, large resellers and/or retailers, and independent gas plant operators. The geographic coverage for this report is the 50 states and the District of Columbia. (DMC)« less

Monthly petroleum product price report. [January 1981-May 1982

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1982-05-01

Data are reported on the prices of petroleum products for the period January 1981 through May 1982. The following products are included in the survey: gasoline, diesel fuels, No. 1 and No. 2 heating oils, No. 5 and No. 6 fuel oils, aviation fuels, residual fuels, kerosene, and liquefied petroleum gases. Prices are also indexed according to ultimate consumer. This report provides Congress and the public with information on monthly national weighted average prices for refined petroleum products. The data published are the primary source of price data for refined products for the refining, reselling, and retailing sectors necessary formore » the Department of Energy (DOE) to execute its role in monitoring prices. In addition, the data provide the information necessary for Congress, DOE, and the public to perform analyses and projections related to energy supplies, demands, and prices. Price data in this publication were collected from separate surveys. Average prices are derived from a survey of refiners, large resellers and/or retailers, and independent gas plant operators. The geographic coverage for this report is the 50 states and the District of Columbia. (DMC)« less

Cryptocurrency price drivers: Wavelet coherence analysis revisited.

PubMed

Phillips, Ross C; Gorse, Denise

2018-01-01

Cryptocurrencies have experienced recent surges in interest and price. It has been discovered that there are time intervals where cryptocurrency prices and certain online and social media factors appear related. In addition it has been noted that cryptocurrencies are prone to experience intervals of bubble-like price growth. The hypothesis investigated here is that relationships between online factors and price are dependent on market regime. In this paper, wavelet coherence is used to study co-movement between a cryptocurrency price and its related factors, for a number of examples. This is used alongside a well-known test for financial asset bubbles to explore whether relationships change dependent on regime. The primary finding of this work is that medium-term positive correlations between online factors and price strengthen significantly during bubble-like regimes of the price series; this explains why these relationships have previously been seen to appear and disappear over time. A secondary finding is that short-term relationships between the chosen factors and price appear to be caused by particular market events (such as hacks / security breaches), and are not consistent from one time interval to another in the effect of the factor upon the price. In addition, for the first time, wavelet coherence is used to explore the relationships between different cryptocurrencies.

Price-dependent quality: examining the effects of price on multimedia quality requirements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hands, David S.; Partridge, Caroline; Cheng, Kennedy; Jacobs, Richard J.

2007-02-01

Traditionally, subjective quality assessments are made in isolation of mediating factors (e.g. interest in content, price). This approach is useful for determining the pure perceptual quality of content. Recently, there has been a growing interest in understanding users' quality of experience. To move from perceptual quality assessment to quality of experience assessment, factors beyond reproduction quality must be considered. From a commercial perspective, content and price are key determinants of success. This paper investigates the relationship between price and quality. Subjects selected content that was of interest to them. Subjects were given a budget of ten pounds at the start of the test. When viewing content, subjects were free to select different levels of quality. The lowest quality was free (and subjects left the test with ten pounds). The highest quality used up the full budget (and subjects left the test with no money). A range of pricing tariffs was used in the test. During the test, subjects were allowed to prioritise quality or price. The results of the test found that subjects prioritised quality over price across all tariff levels. At the higher pricing tariffs, subjects became more price sensitive. Using data from a number of subjective tests, a utility function describing the relationship between price and quality was produced.

The evolution of spillover effects between oil and stock markets across multi-scales using a wavelet-based GARCH-BEKK model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xueyong; An, Haizhong; Huang, Shupei; Wen, Shaobo

2017-01-01

Aiming to investigate the evolution of mean and volatility spillovers between oil and stock markets in the time and frequency dimensions, we employed WTI crude oil prices, the S&P 500 (USA) index and the MICEX index (Russia) for the period Jan. 2003-Dec. 2014 as sample data. We first applied a wavelet-based GARCH-BEKK method to examine the spillover features in frequency dimension. To consider the evolution of spillover effects in time dimension at multiple-scales, we then divided the full sample period into three sub-periods, pre-crisis period, crisis period, and post-crisis period. The results indicate that spillover effects vary across wavelet scales in terms of strength and direction. By analysis the time-varying linkage, we found the different evolution features of spillover effects between the Oil-US stock market and Oil-Russia stock market. The spillover relationship between oil and US stock market is shifting to short-term while the spillover relationship between oil and Russia stock market is changing to all time scales. That result implies that the linkage between oil and US stock market is weakening in the long-term, and the linkage between oil and Russia stock market is getting close in all time scales. This may explain the phenomenon that the US stock index and the Russia stock index showed the opposite trend with the falling of oil price in the post-crisis period.

Cryptocurrency price drivers: Wavelet coherence analysis revisited

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Cryptocurrencies have experienced recent surges in interest and price. It has been discovered that there are time intervals where cryptocurrency prices and certain online and social media factors appear related. In addition it has been noted that cryptocurrencies are prone to experience intervals of bubble-like price growth. The hypothesis investigated here is that relationships between online factors and price are dependent on market regime. In this paper, wavelet coherence is used to study co-movement between a cryptocurrency price and its related factors, for a number of examples. This is used alongside a well-known test for financial asset bubbles to explore whether relationships change dependent on regime. The primary finding of this work is that medium-term positive correlations between online factors and price strengthen significantly during bubble-like regimes of the price series; this explains why these relationships have previously been seen to appear and disappear over time. A secondary finding is that short-term relationships between the chosen factors and price appear to be caused by particular market events (such as hacks / security breaches), and are not consistent from one time interval to another in the effect of the factor upon the price. In addition, for the first time, wavelet coherence is used to explore the relationships between different cryptocurrencies. PMID:29668765

Exploring the relationship between cigarette prices and smoking among adults: a cross-country study of low- and middle-income nations.

PubMed

Kostova, Deliana; Tesche, Jean; Perucic, Anne-Marie; Yurekli, Ayda; Asma, Samira

2014-01-01

Evidence on the relationship between cigarette prices and adult smoking in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is relatively limited. This study offers new descriptive evidence on this relationship using data from a set of 13 LMICs. We use Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) cross-country data from approximately 200,000 participants aged 15 and older. Estimates on the relationship between prices and adult smoking were obtained from logit models of smoking participation and ordinary least squares models of conditional cigarette demand. Higher prices were associated with lower demand across countries, in terms of both smoking prevalence and daily number of cigarettes smoked among smokers. Our estimates suggest that the total price elasticity of cigarette demand in LMICs is approximately -0.53. We find that higher socioeconomic status (SES), represented through wealth and education effects is associated with lower chance of smoking overall, but among existing smokers, it may be associated with a larger number of cigarettes smoked. After controlling for a set of individual demographic and country characteristics, cigarette prices retain a significant role in shaping cigarette demand across LMICs. Because higher SES is associated with a reduced chance of smoking overall but also with increased daily consumption among current smokers, optimal tobacco tax policies in LMICs may face an added need to accommodate to shifting SES structures within the populations of these countries.

The devil is in the details: An investigation of the relationships between conflict, food price and climate across Africa.

PubMed

Raleigh, Clionadh; Choi, Hyun Jin; Kniveton, Dominic

2015-05-01

This study investigates the relationship between violent conflict, food price, and climate variability at the subnational level. Using disaggregated data on 113 African markets from January 1997 to April 2010, interrelationships between the three variables are analyzed in simultaneous equation models. We find that: (i) a positive feedback exists between food price and violence - higher food prices increase conflict rates within markets and conflict increases food prices; (ii) anomalously dry conditions are associated with increased frequencies of conflict; and (iii) decreased rainfall exerts an indirect effect on conflict through its impact on food prices. These findings suggest that the negative effects of climate variability on conflict can be mitigated by interventions and effective price management in local markets. Creating environments in which food prices are stable and reliable, and markets are accessible and safe, can lower the impacts of both climate change and conflict feedbacks.

More attention should be paid to making the U. S. less vulnerable to foreign oil price and supply decisions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Staats, E.B.

1978-01-03

A report is presented in which GAO recommends that the secretaries of State and Energy present to the Congress by July 1, 1978, a plan for improving security of U.S. imported oil supplies at reasonable prices by U.S. policy initiatives directed toward changes in access terms, incentives for production in other than OPEC countries, and bilateral and multilateral approaches to OPEC and other nations. Ultimately, this country, as well as the rest of the world, will become independent of oil. This is necessarily true because oil is a finite commodity and will run out someday. Accordingly, national attention ought tomore » be directed to truly responsible concerns about how to achieve an orderly transition to an economy based upon alternative resources of energy. Today's policies must buy time and provide the petroleum supplies needed while other energy sources are developed and put in operation to replace them.« less

Monthly petroleum-product price report. [January 1981 through June 1982

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1982-06-01

Data are reported on the prices of petroleum products for the period January 1981 through June 1982. The following products are included in the survey: gasoline, diesel fuels, No. 1 and No. 2 heating oils, No. 5 and No. 6 fuel oils, aviation fuels, kerosene, and liquified petroleum gases. Prices are also indexed according to ultimate consumer. This report provides Congress and the pubilc with information on monthly national weighted average prices for refined petroleum products. The data published are the primary source of price data for refined products for the refining, reselling, and retailing sectors necessary for the Departmentmore » of Energy (DOE) to execute its role in monitoring prices. In addition, the data provide the information necessary for Congress, DOE, and the public to perform analyses and projections related to energy supplies, demands, and prices. Price data in this publication were collected from separate surveys. Average prices are derived from a survey of refiners, large resellers and/or retailers, and independent gas plant operators. The geographic coverage for this report is the 50 states and the District of Columbia. (DMC)« less

The Entry of Colombian-Sourced Heroin into the US Market: The Relationship between Competition, Price, and Purity

PubMed Central

Rosenblum, Daniel; Unick, Jay; Ciccarone, Daniel

2013-01-01

There have been large structural changes in the US heroin market over the past 20 years. Colombian-sourced heroin entered the market in the mid-1990s, followed by a large fall in the price per pure gram and the exit of Asian heroin. By the 2000s, Colombian-sourced heroin had become a monopoly on the east coast and Mexican-sourced heroin a monopoly on the west coast with competition between the two in the middle. We estimate the relationship between these changes in competitive market structure on retail-level heroin price and purity. We find that the entry of Colombian-sourced heroin is associated with less competition and a lower price per pure gram of heroin at the national level. However, there is wide variation in changes in market concentration across the US. Controlling for the national fall in the heroin price, more competition in a region or city is associated with a lower price per pure gram. PMID:24211155

Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Petroleum Product Prices Module

EIA Publications

2015-01-01

The petroleum products price module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide U.S. average wholesale and retail price forecasts for motor gasoline, diesel fuel, heating oil, and jet fuel.

High-Price And Low-Price Physician Practices Do Not Differ Significantly On Care Quality Or Efficiency

PubMed Central

Roberts, Eric T.; Mehrotra, Ateev; McWilliams, J. Michael

2017-01-01

Provider consolidation has intensified concerns that providers with market power may be able to charge higher prices without having to deliver better care. Providers have argued that higher prices cover the costs of delivering higher-quality care. We examined the relationship between physician practice prices for outpatient services and the quality and efficiency of care provided to their patients. Using commercial claims, we classified practices as high-priced or low-priced. We compared care quality, utilization, and spending between high-priced and low-priced practices in the same areas using data from the Consumer Assessment of Health Care Providers and Systems survey and linked claims for Medicare beneficiaries. Compared with low-priced practices, high-priced practices were much larger and received 36% higher prices. Patients of high-priced practices reported significantly higher scores on some measures of care coordination and management, but did not differ meaningfully in their overall care ratings, other domains of patient experiences (including physician ratings and access to care), receipt of mammography, vaccinations, or diabetes services, acute care use, or total Medicare spending. These findings suggest an overall weak relationship between practices’ prices and the quality and efficiency of care they provide, calling into question claims that high-priced providers deliver substantially higher-value care. PMID:28461352

Essays on the behavior of the oil market and OPEC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Algudhea, Salim

This dissertation consists of three essays. The first essay is mainly concerned with investigating the risk-responsive behavior of OPEC members. Economic theory suggests that producers respond to the risk of volatile price by lowering production level. In the case of OPEC, the risk of the volatility in the price of crude oil does not seem to be a key determinant in the production decision-making process. Engineering constraints, data frequency, and political consideration may be the main causes of such a result. In the second essay, we tested the presence of the asymmetric adjustment in the cheating behavior as a result of crude oil price shocks. We utilize a set of cointegration and error correction methods that do not assume a linear adjustment to test whether cheaters within OPEC respond more to positive or negative crude oil price shocks. We conclude that cheaters respond more to negative shocks than positive shocks in oil price. The inelastic nature of demand for oil seems to play a crucial role in such asymmetric behavior. When there is a negative price shock, OPEC producers compensate for the loss in revenue by overproducing (i.e. cheat). Yet, if there is a positive shock in the price of crude oil, OPEC producers have less incentive to overproduce because of the inelastic demand for oil. The third essay is concerned with testing for the asymmetric adjustment in gasoline prices in the U.S. We consider a Momentum Threshold Autoregressive (MTAR) process to test for the asymmetric adjustment in all of the possible stages that a gallon of gasoline goes through in order to find the source of asymmetry. Then, we examine the dynamics of gasoline prices using asymmetric error correction models based on the MTAR specifications. We find the asymmetric adjustment present in all stages. The asymmetry in the retail stage seems to be the result of insufficient demand faced by retailers.

Heating Oil and Propane Update

EIA Publications

2017-01-01

Weekly residential, wholesale, and spot prices; and production, demand, and stocks of heating fuels. (Weekly heating oil and propane prices are only collected during the heating season which extends from October through March.)

Oil markets in turmoil: an economic analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Verleger, P.K. Jr.

1982-01-01

Departing from conventional wisdom about the forces most responsible for oil price increases, this book analyzes the response of consumers, oil companies, and oil-exporting nations to show that lethargy, not greed, best describes the behavior of these participants during a supply disruption. The adjustment to changes in market conditions is so slow that minor incidents are transformed into major crises. Assessing existing policy options, Verleger dispels the idea of matching supply losses with an equal cut in consumption. He recommends a free-market approach, which entails raising prices quickly, imposing large tariffs on imports, encouraging the development of private stockpiles, andmore » using spot prices as an indicator of oil shortages. He shows that the market approach will impose fewer costs than the regulatory approach in the long run. 83 references, 17 figures, 70 tables.« less

Politics has strong say in who benefits from oil

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tippee, B.; Beck, R.J.

1995-04-03

Oil`s many values are more visible now than ever. Price information streams from financial and physical commodity markets around the world. A sophisticated array of analytical tools turns price data into nearly real-time indications of what a particular crude or petroleum product is worth to a particular type of trader in a particular market. Value, though, means something beyond price. Economic values ultimately must benefit someone. In a market that gushes price data, it`s much easier to measure oil values than it is to determine who benefits from them. The paper discusses new value gauges, where values flow, the trendmore » toward lower government take upstream, the decade-long trend in the decline of state takes, suppressing prices, political dimensions, the squeeze OPEC feels, taxing products, claim on values, and values in perspective.« less

The entry of Colombian-sourced heroin into the US market: the relationship between competition, price, and purity.

PubMed

Rosenblum, Daniel; Unick, George Jay; Ciccarone, Daniel

2014-01-01

There have been large structural changes in the US heroin market over the past 20 years. Colombian-sourced heroin entered the market in the mid-1990s, followed by a large fall in the price per pure gram and the exit of Asian heroin. By the 2000s, Colombian-sourced heroin had become a monopoly on the east coast and Mexican-sourced heroin a monopoly on the west coast with competition between the two in the middle. We estimate the relationship between these changes in competitive market structure on retail-level heroin price and purity. We find that the entry of Colombian-sourced heroin is associated with less competition and a lower price per pure gram of heroin at the national level. However, there is wide variation in changes in market concentration across the US. Controlling for the national fall in the heroin price, more competition in a region or city is associated with a lower price per pure gram. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysing oil-production subsidies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steenblik, Ronald

2017-11-01

Understanding how subsidies affect fossil-fuel investment returns and production is crucial to commencing new reforms. New analysis on the impact of subsidies on US crude-oil producers finds that, at recent oil prices of around US50 per barrel, tax preferences and other subsidies push nearly half of new oil investments into profitability.

a Spatial Analysis on Gis-Hedonic Pricing Model on the Influence of Public Open Space and House Price in Klang Valley, Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zainora, A. M.; Norzailawati, M. N.; Tuminah, P.

2016-06-01

Presently, it is noticeable that there is a significant influence of public open space about house price, especially in many developed nations. Literature suggests the relationship between the two aspects give impact on the housing market, however not many studies undertaken in Malaysia. Thus, this research was initiated to analyse the relationship of open space and house price via the techniques of GIS-Hedonic Pricing Model. In this regards, the GIS tool indicates the pattern of the relationship between open space and house price spatially. Meanwhile, Hedonic Pricing Model demonstrates the index of the selected criteria in determining the housing price. This research is a perceptual study of 200 respondents who were the house owners of double-storey terrace houses in four townships, namely Bandar Baru Bangi, Taman Melawati, Subang Jaya and Shah Alam, in Klang Valley. The key research question is whether the relationship between open space and house price exists and the nature of its pattern and intensity. The findings indicate that there is a positive correlation between open space and house price. Correlation analysis reveals that a weak relationship (rs < 0.1) established between the variable of open space and house price (rs = 0.91, N = 200, p = 0.2). Consequently, the rate of house price change is rather small. In overall, this research has achieved its research aims and thus, offers the value added in applying the GIS-Hedonic pricing model in analysing the influence of open space to the house price in the form of spatially and textually.

Modeling impacts of sea-level rise, oil price, and management strategy on the costs of sustaining Mississippi delta marshes with hydraulic dredging.

PubMed

Wiegman, Adrian R H; Day, John W; D'Elia, Christopher F; Rutherford, Jeffrey S; Morris, James T; Roy, Eric D; Lane, Robert R; Dismukes, David E; Snyder, Brian F

2018-03-15

Over 25% of Mississippi River delta plain (MRDP) wetlands were lost over the past century. There is currently a major effort to restore the MRDP focused on a 50-year time horizon, a period during which the energy system and climate will change dramatically. We used a calibrated MRDP marsh elevation model to assess the costs of hydraulic dredging to sustain wetlands from 2016 to 2066 and 2016 to 2100 under a range of scenarios for sea level rise, energy price, and management regimes. We developed a subroutine to simulate dredging costs based on the price of crude oil and a project efficiency factor. Crude oil prices were projected using forecasts from global energy models. The costs to sustain marsh between 2016 and 2100 changed from $128,000/ha in the no change scenario to ~$1,010,000/ha in the worst-case scenario for sea level rise and energy price, an ~8-fold increase. Increasing suspended sediment concentrations, which is possible using managed river diversions, raised created marsh lifespan and decreased long term dredging costs. Created marsh lifespan changed nonlinearly with dredging fill elevation and suspended sediment level. Cost effectiveness of marsh creation and nourishment can be optimized by adjusting dredging fill elevation to the local sediment regime. Regardless of management scenario, sustaining the MRDP with hydraulic dredging suffered declining returns on investment due to the convergence of energy and climate trends. Marsh creation will likely become unaffordable in the mid to late 21st century, especially if river sediment diversions are not constructed before 2030. We recommend that environmental managers take into consideration coupled energy and climate scenarios for long-term risk assessments and adjust restoration goals accordingly. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Oil prospects attract workover dollars. [Rocky Mountains

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stremel, K.

1983-12-01

Anticipating stable crude oil prices and low service costs, Rocky Mountain operators plan to maintain strong workover programs next year. Deflated service costs are allowing operators to complete more workovers without appropriating more capital, and they plan to take advantage of the bargain prices available in the oilpatch. Workover activity next year will be concentrated in major oil producing basins of the Rockies.

Renewable resources in the chemical industry--breaking away from oil?

PubMed

Nordhoff, Stefan; Höcker, Hans; Gebhardt, Henrike

2007-12-01

Rising prices for fossil-based raw materials suggest that sooner or later renewable raw materials will, in principle, become economically viable. This paper examines this widespread paradigm. Price linkages like those seen for decades particularly in connection with petrochemical raw materials are now increasingly affecting renewable raw materials. The main driving force is the competing utilisation as an energy source because both fossil-based and renewable raw materials are used primarily for heat, electrical power and mobility. As a result, prices are determined by energy utilisation. Simple observations show how prices for renewable carbon sources are becoming linked to the crude oil price. Whether the application calls for sugar, starch, virgin oils or lignocellulose, the price for the raw material rises with the oil price. Consequently, expectations regarding price trends for fossil-based energy sources can also be utilised for the valuation of alternative processes. However, this seriously calls into question the assumption that a rising crude oil price will favour the economic viability of alternative products and processes based on renewable raw materials. Conversely, it follows that these products and processes must demonstrate economic viability today. Especially in connection with new approaches in white biotechnology, it is evident that, under realistic assumptions, particularly in terms of achievable yields and the optimisation potential of the underlying processes, the route to utilisation is economically viable. This makes the paradigm mentioned at the outset at least very questionable.

Cheap Oil and the Impact on Rebuilding Syria

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-10-30

Syrian energy infrastructure will not be cost effective in the current oil pricing environment. I will present a quick overview of oil’s historic role...in the Syrian economy, followed by a synopsis of the current state of Syria’s oil infrastructure . An analysis of the impact of low oil prices on...similarities between countries, a specific comparison will be made to Yemen in an effort to predict the challenges that Syria will face when entering the

Saudi Arabia: perspective on oil, foreign policy, and the Arab-Israeli conflict, 1970-1980

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kurdi, M.A.M.

1982-01-01

This study examines, through a descriptive and analytical approach, the Saudi perspective on its oil power and policies in world affairs and how the Arab-Israeli conflict affects these policies. A special emphasis on the United States-Saudi Arabian relationship is made, since Saudi Arabia looks at the United States as the key factor in the Arab-Israeli conflict. To serve this end, the dissertation is divided into three parts. Part one examines the economic and political reality of oil power, its implication and limitation. Also, this part examines the behavior and the policies of the oil companies, the oil-consuming countries, and themore » oil-producing countries after the structural change of the oil industry and the shift in control of production and prices from the hands of the oil companies to those of the oil-producing countries. Part two examines the Saudi Arabian economy, the role of oil in developing this economy, and the effect of Saudi development plans on Saudi oil policies. Part three examines Saudi foreign policy, especially its role in the Arab-Israeli conflict, with emphasis on the Saudi oil role in this regard. Also, this part examines the United States-Saudi Arabia relationship and interest, the United States interest in Israel, and, finally, how Riyadh sees these interests affecting United States policies in the Middle East.« less

Early warning model based on correlated networks in global crude oil markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Jia-Wei; Xie, Wen-Jie; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang

2018-01-01

Applying network tools on predicting and warning the systemic risks provides a novel avenue to manage risks in financial markets. Here, we construct a series of global crude oil correlated networks based on the historical 57 oil prices covering a period from 1993 to 2012. Two systemic risk indicators are constructed based on the density and modularity of correlated networks. The local maximums of the risk indicators are found to have the ability to predict the trends of oil prices. In our sample periods, the indicator based on the network density sends five signals and the indicator based on the modularity index sends four signals. The four signals sent by both indicators are able to warn the drop of future oil prices and the signal only sent by the network density is followed by a huge rise of oil prices. Our results deepen the application of network measures on building early warning models of systemic risks and can be applied to predict the trends of future prices in financial markets.

Relationship between sediment morphology and oil pollution along the Suez Canal beaches, Egypt

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barakat, M.A.K.; Shimy, T.M.; Mostafa, Y.M.

1996-10-01

In this study, marine surface sediments are collected from nine locations along the Suez Canal in order to investigate the relationship between the morphology of sands in the studied beaches and pollution by oil. Basically, the studied samples were analyzed by three techniques: grains-size analysis, microscopic examination, and gas chromatographic (GC) analysis. This study concluded that medium sand is the major class represented in the studied marine sediments. Pollution in these sand grains increases in the irregular grains more so than in the more rounded grains. Also, deep surface points, pitting, and fissures are considered to be good sites tomore » precipitate oil contamination. Also, the presence of iron oxides may be taken as evidence for tanker ballast washings. The heavy fraction (zircon) shows more contamination than the light fraction (quartz) in these samples. Finally, GC profiles have shown two types of samples: one typical of weathered or highly weathered crude oil patterns and the other for samples with very highly weathered profiles. The relationship obtained between morphology studies and both oil content and GC chromatogram profiles indicates that all of the studied locations are suffering from pollution of oil that is spilled while shipping petroleum through the Suez Canal.« less

High-Price And Low-Price Physician Practices Do Not Differ Significantly On Care Quality Or Efficiency.

PubMed

Roberts, Eric T; Mehrotra, Ateev; McWilliams, J Michael

2017-05-01

Consolidation of physician practices has intensified concerns that providers with greater market power may be able to charge higher prices without having to deliver better care, compared to providers with less market power. Providers have argued that higher prices cover the costs of delivering higher-quality care. We examined the relationship between physician practice prices for outpatient services and practices' quality and efficiency of care. Using commercial claims data, we classified practices as being high- or low-price. We used national data from the Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems survey and linked claims for Medicare beneficiaries to compare high- and low-price practices in the same geographic area in terms of care quality, utilization, and spending. Compared with low-price practices, high-price practices were much larger and received 36 percent higher prices. Patients of high-price practices reported significantly higher scores on some measures of care coordination and management but did not differ meaningfully in their overall care ratings, other domains of patient experiences (including physician ratings and access to care), receipt of preventive services, acute care use, or total Medicare spending. This suggests an overall weak relationship between practice prices and the quality and efficiency of care and calls into question claims that high-price providers deliver substantially higher-value care. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

Students' Demand for Smartphones: Structural Relationships of Product Features, Brand Name, Product Price and Social Infuence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Suki, Norazah Mohd

2013-01-01

Purpose: The study aims to examine structural relationships of product features, brand name, product price and social influence with demand for Smartphones among Malaysian students'. Design/methodology/approach: Data collected from 320 valid pre-screened university students studying at the pubic higher learning institution in Federal Territory of…

Marketing BTUs: Gas, electricity lead oil in innovation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krapels, E.N.

The transformation in relations between energy providers and users--powered by reform of electric utilities and by continuation of natural gas deregulation--is challenging several fundamental precepts of how oil companies managed their deregulation. In the wake of the price decontrol completed by the Reagan administration in 1981, oil companies (1) retreated from national business structures, (2) focused on limited range core businesses, and (3) provided minimal oil price risk management services for their customers. By contrast, the electric and natural gas industry is consolidating for the purpose of playing a role in ever-larger markets, diversifying its products and services, and providingmore » innovative hedging instruments to itself as well as its customers. From Enron, one can purchase physical and paper energy, delivered in whatever form desired, nationwide and internationally, with or without mechanisms to manage price risk. What will impede the newly integrated energy companies--which are composite electric plus natural gas firms--from also delivering products and services now rendered by the oil companies? Could utilities organize gasoline consumers better than oil companies? If the Price Club can sell gasoline at 10 cents below market, why can`t the new energy companies do so? The paper discusses what consumers want, procurement and costs, and innovations and lessons.« less

Nonlinear bivariate dependency of price-volume relationships in agricultural commodity futures markets: A perspective from Multifractal Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Ling-Yun; Chen, Shu-Peng

2011-01-01

Nonlinear dependency between characteristic financial and commodity market quantities (variables) is crucially important, especially between trading volume and market price. Studies on nonlinear dependency between price and volume can provide practical insights into market trading characteristics, as well as the theoretical understanding of market dynamics. Actually, nonlinear dependency and its underlying dynamical mechanisms between price and volume can help researchers and technical analysts in understanding the market dynamics by integrating the market variables, instead of investigating them in the current literature. Therefore, for investigating nonlinear dependency of price-volume relationships in agricultural commodity futures markets in China and the US, we perform a new statistical test to detect cross-correlations and apply a new methodology called Multifractal Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (MF-DCCA), which is an efficient algorithm to analyze two spatially or temporally correlated time series. We discuss theoretically the relationship between the bivariate cross-correlation exponent and the generalized Hurst exponents for time series of respective variables. We also perform an empirical study and find that there exists a power-law cross-correlation between them, and that multifractal features are significant in all the analyzed agricultural commodity futures markets.

Egg prices, feed costs, and the decision to molt.

PubMed

McDaniel, B A; Aske, D R

2000-09-01

On April 7, 1998, the United Poultry Concerns filed a petition with the Department of Health and Human Services of the Food and Drug Administration calling for the elimination of the practice of forced molting of laying hens in the US. In reaction to this petition, this study investigated the economic importance of forced molting as a short-term production management tool for egg producers. The relationship between shell egg prices and feed costs and the occurrence of forced molting in the five shell egg-pricing regions in the US was addressed. The purpose of this analysis was to determine whether forced molting is used to slow egg production during periods of falling or low egg prices or periods of high or rising feed costs. Ordinary least squares was used to test the relationship between the independent variables (egg, corn, and meal prices) and the dependent variable (percentage of layers in molt). In four of the five regions, there was a significant inverse relationship (P < 0.05) between egg prices and the percentage of layers in molt. This analysis suggests that producers were influenced by current egg prices when making the decision to molt. However, the relationship between the percentage of layers in molt and corn and meal prices was less clear. Although a positive relationship between feed prices and molt was found in each region, in only one region was the relationship statistically significant (P < 0.05).

Kicking the oil addiction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vilenchik, Yaakov; Peled, Emanuel; Andelman, David

2010-01-01

Few people were left unaffected by the soaring oil prices of summer 2008. Motorists were the hardest hit as the price at the pumps reached an all time high, but nobody could avoid paying more for their food as higher transport costs were passed on from the retailer to the consumer.

Left-digit price effects on smoking cessation motivation.

PubMed

MacKillop, James; Amlung, Michael T; Blackburn, Ashley; Murphy, James G; Carrigan, Maureen; Carpenter, Matthew J; Chaloupka, Frank

2014-11-01

Cigarette price increases have been associated with increases in smoking cessation, but relatively little is known about this relationship at the level of individual smokers. To address this and to inform tax policy, the goal of this study was to apply a behavioural economic approach to the relationship between the price of cigarettes and the probability of attempting smoking cessation. Adult daily smokers (n=1074; ie, 5+ cigarettes/day; 18+ years old; ≥8th grade education) completed in-person descriptive survey assessments. Assessments included estimated probability of making a smoking cessation attempt across a range of cigarette prices, demographics and nicotine dependence. As price increases, probability of making a smoking cessation attempt exhibited an orderly increase, with the form of the relationship being similar to an inverted demand curve. The largest effect size increases in motivation to make a quit attempt were in the form of 'left-digit effects,' (ie, maximal sensitivity across pack price whole-number changes; eg, US$5.80-6/pack). Significant differences were also observed among the left-digit effects, suggesting the most substantial effects were for price changes that were most market relevant. Severity of nicotine dependence was significantly associated with price sensitivity, but not for all indices. These data reveal the clear and robust relationship between the price of cigarettes and an individual's motivation to attempt smoking cessation. Furthermore, the current study indicates the importance of left-digit price transitions in this relationship, suggesting policymakers should consider relative price positions in the context of tax changes. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Oil and the American Way of Life: Don't Ask, Don't Tell

ScienceCinema

Kaufmann, Robert [Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts, United States

2018-04-19

In the coming decades, US consumers will face a series of important decisions about oil. To make effective decisions, consumers must confront some disturbing answers to questions they would rather not ask. These questions include: is the US running out of oil, is the world running out of oil, is OPEC increasing its grip on prices, is the US economy reducing its dependence on energy, and will the competitive market address these issues in a timely fashion? Answers to these questions indicate that the market will not address these issues: the US has already run out of inexpensive sources of oil such that rising prices no longer elicit significant increases in supply. The US experience implies that within a couple of decades, the world oil market will change from increasing supply at low prices to decreasing supply at higher prices. As the world approaches this important turning point, OPEC will strengthen its grip on world oil prices. Contrary to popular belief, the US economy continues to be highly dependent on energy, especially inexpensive sources of energy. Together, these trends threaten to undermine the basic way in which the US economy generates a high standard of living.

Report on cost/pricing relationships for the space shuttle. [NASA/STS Operations Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1977-01-01

The operations cost for the shuttle is the basis for developing the user charge policy for the system. The policy contains several elements that are significant to the user and to NASA. It will encourage the full use of the system to the benefits of the U.S. The charge policy will encourage early transition from the expendable launch vehicles to the shuttle and this will result in lower user costs for government as well as commercial users. The relationship between the charge policy and the utilization of the shuttle is critical to the economic efficiency of the system. NASA recognizes the challenging a relationship between pricing the cost of using a reusable space system, and the need to make sure it is re-used often.

Carbon Prices: Dynamic analysis of European and Californian markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sousa, Rita Mafalda Dionisio de

Carbon markets' goal is to promote the reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases where it is most cost-efficient. This makes the price of the tradable good - carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) - a key variable in management and risk decisions, in markets related to activities connected with the burning of fossil fuels, such as power generation. This work aims to improve the analysis of carbon prices' dynamics, considering the possibility of multidirectional effects between prices of CO2e, energy (primary and final), offsets licenses and the economy performance, in various frequencies. The two main research questions are: (i) what drives carbon price variations? (ii) what variations do carbon prices drive? We used two comple-mentary methodologies: (a) a vector autoregression model (of common use in macroeconomics and financial markets but not in carbon-energy relations), which allows the analysis of causality and of impulse-response functions of daily prices; and (b) an innovative multivariate wavelet analysis, which allows us to understand the relationship and causal link between the variables in the time and frequency dimensions, particularly in longer cycles (4 8 and 8 20 months), not perceived in previous studies. As case studies we considered the European (EU ETS) and Califor-nia (AB32) carbon markets. This is the first research to present the analysis of the referred US market. The analysis covers the 2008-2013 period, intentionally excluding the EU ETS phase I, for greater consistency of results. Results suggest that the economy and electricity drive the price of European carbon, while gas and oil have a greater role in California. So, there is a greater influence of final energy prices in the most mature market. We also observe that the price of CERs does not affect the European carbon price. On the other hand, this study shows for the first time that carbon prices have impacts on electricity prices over longer cycles (8 20 months) and in coal over short

The Relationship Between Oil and Gas Industry Investment in Alternative Energy and Corporate Social Responsibility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konyushikhin, Maxim

The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasted energy consumption in the United States to increase approximately 19% between 2006 and 2030, or about 0.7% annually. The research problem addressed in this study was that the oil and gas industry's interest in alternative energy is contrary to its current business objectives and profit goals. The purpose of the quantitative study was to explore the relationship between oil and gas industry investments in alternative energy and corporate social responsibilities. Research questions addressed the relationship between alternative energy investment and corporate social responsibility, the role of oil and gas companies in alternative energy investment, and why these companies chose to invest in alternative energy sources. Systems theory was the conceptual framework, and data were collected from a sample of 25 companies drawn from the 28,000 companies in the oil and gas industry from 2004 to 2009. Multiple regression and correlation analysis were used to answer the research questions and test hypotheses using corporate financial data and company profiles related to alternative energy investment and corporate social responsibility in terms of oil and gas industry financial support of programs that serve the greater social good. Results indicated significant relationships between alternative energy investment and corporate social responsibility. With an increasing global population with energy requirements in excess of what is available using traditional means, the industry should increase investment in alternative sources. The research results may promote positive social change by increasing public awareness regarding the degree to which oil and gas companies invest in developing alternative energy sources, which might, in turn, inspire public pressure on companies in the oil and gas industry to pursue use of alternative energy.

Questioning the sustainable palm oil demand: case study from French-Indonesia supply chain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chalil, D.; Barus, R.

2018-02-01

Sustainable palm oil has been widely debated. Consuming countries insist certified sustainable produces palm oil, but in fact the absorption of the certified palm oil is still less than 60%. This raise questions about the sustainable palm oil demand. In this study, such a condition will be analysed in French-Indonesia supply chain case. Using monthly and quarterly data from 2010 to 2016 with Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach and Error Correction Model, demand influencing factors and price integration in each market of the supply chain is estimated. Two scenarios namely re-export and direct export models are considered in the Error Correction Model. The results show that France Gross Domestic Product, prices of France palm oil import from Indonesia, Malaysia, and Germany, and price of France groundnut import significantly influence the France palm oil import volume from Indonesia. Prices in each market along palm oil re-export France-Indonesia supply chain are co-integrated and converge towards long-run equilibrium, but not in the direct export supply chain. This leads to a conclusion that France market preferences in specific and EU market preferences in general need to be considered by Indonesian palm oil decision makers.

World Economic Growth and Oil: a Producers' Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shihab-Eldin, Adnan

2014-07-01

This paper examines the following assertions: * A high share of oil price in GDP limits economic growth, * Oil Price shocks trigger recession, * These effects will be escalated by peaked oil supply and rising developing world demand and together with increasing contributions to climate change will result in a global emergency. The role of energy in societal development and economic growth, from primitive man through the industrial revolution and the oil age to the present and the evolution of energy intensity are described. The principle role of oil as a transport fuel and the possibilities of alternatives are examined. It is concluded that oil dependence will continue for the foreseeable future. The history of the industry, market behavior and its economic effects are presented to establish precedent and the assertions are then examined. It is shown that rising oil prices are an unavoidable consequence of economic growth, that they have stimulated efficient minimum functional use and made more difficult conventional and unconventional sources economic. It is then argued that potentially these additional resources eliminate the possibility of supply shortage and that diversification of supply lessens the possibility of shock, together rendering a global emergency less likely than could have been previously envisaged.

Cigarette Prices and Community Price Comparisons in US Military Retail Stores

PubMed Central

Poston, Walker S.C.; Haddock, Christopher K.; Jahnke, Sara A.; Smith, Elizabeth; Malone, Ruth E.; Jitnarin, Nattinee

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND Tobacco pricing impacts use, yet military retailers sell discounted cigarettes. No systematic research has examined how military retail stores use internal community comparisons to set prices. We analyzed data obtained through a Freedom of Information Act request on community price comparisons used by military retail to set cigarette prices. METHODS Data on cigarette prices were obtained directly from military retailers (exchanges) from January 2013–March 2014. Complete pricing data was provided from exchanges on 114 military installations. RESULTS The average price for a pack of Marlboro cigarettes in military exchanges was $5.51, which was similar to the average lowest community price ($5.45; Mean Difference=−0.06; p=0.104) and almost a $1.00 lower than the average highest price ($6.44). Military retail prices were 2.1%, 6.2%, and 13.7% higher than the lowest, average, and highest community comparisons and 18.2% of exchange prices violated pricing instructions. There was a negative correlation (r = −.21, p = 0.02) between the number of community stores surveyed and exchange cigarette prices. CONCLUSIONS There was no significant difference between prices for cigarettes on military installations and the lowest average community comparison, and in some locations the prices violated DoD policy. US Marine Corps exchanges had the lowest prices, which is of concern given that the Marines also have the highest rates of tobacco use in the DoD. Given the relationship between tobacco product prices and demand, a common minimum (or floor) shelf price for tobacco products should be set for all exchanges and discount coupon redemptions should be prohibited. PMID:27553357

Potential Development Essential Oil Production of Central Java, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alighiri, D.; Eden, W. T.; Supardi, K. I.; Masturi; Purwinarko, A.

2017-04-01

Indonesia is the source of raw essential oil in the world. Essential oils are used in various types of industries such as food and beverage, flavour, fragrance, perfumery, pharmaceuticals, and cosmetics. However, the development of Indonesian essential oil industry has not been encouraging for the production of essential oils, further it is unable to meet global demand. Besides that, the quality of volatile oil resulted cannot meet the international market standards. Based on the facts, the potential of Indonesian essential oils needs to be developed to provide added value, through increased production, improved quality and product diversification. One part of Indonesia having abundant of raw essential oil source is Central Java. Central Java has the quite large potential production of essential oils. Some essential oils produced from refining industry owned by the government, private and community sectors include cananga oils (Boyolali district), clove oils (Semarang district), patchouli oils (Brebes district, Pemalang district, and Klaten district). The main problem in the development of plants industries that producing essential oil in Central Java is low crops production, farming properties, quality of essential oils are diverse, providing poor-quality products and volatile oil price fluctuations. Marketing constraints of Central Java essential oils are quite complex supply chain. In general, marketing constraints of essential oils due to three factors, namely the low quality due to type of essential oil business that generally shaped small businesses with different capital and technology, domestic marketing is still a buyer-market (price determined by the buyer) because of weak bargaining position processors businessman, and prices fluctuate (domestic and foreign) due to uncontrolled domestic production and inter-country competition among manufacturers.

The dynamic relationship between Bursa Malaysia composite index and macroeconomic variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Rose, Farid Zamani Che; Rahman, Rosmanjawati Abd.

2017-08-01

This study investigates and analyzes the long run and short run relationships between Bursa Malaysia Composite index (KLCI) and nine macroeconomic variables in a VAR/VECM framework. After regression analysis seven out the nine macroeconomic variables are chosen for further analysis. The use of Johansen-Juselius Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) technique indicate that there are long run relationships between the seven macroeconomic variables and KLCI. Meanwhile, Granger causality test shows that bidirectional relationship between KLCI and oil price. Furthermore, after 12 months the shock on KLCI are explained by innovations of the seven macroeconomic variables. This indicate the close relationship between macroeconomic variables and KLCI.

The Oil Industries Fake Abundance Story: Is Distortion of the Truth Ever Appropriate?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, J. W.

2014-12-01

The oil industries and their cornucopian supporters (press, politicians, energy agencies) promote the story that in the oil is abundant and oil production will increase. The reality is that 1) World crude oil production has been on a plateau since 2005, in spite of new technology (fracking), record high prices (Brent Oil > 100 per barrel) and record spending on exploration and development (5.4 trillion over the past six years) and 2) The price of oil has risen steadily from 1999 to present. Typically when commodities are abundant the price tends to fall. How is this reality being distorted? 1) Resources are being equated with reserves (both are amounts), neither of which can be equated with each other or with production (a rate). 2) Crude oil (the price or which is rigorously defined by API density) has been redefined as total liquids, which includes substances (lease condensates, natural gas liquids, biofuels, refinery gains) which can not be used in the same way oil is or sold for the same price as oil. If what you are selling cannot be sold on the world market as crude oil, then it is not crude oil. 3) The demand for oil remains high, but World production is stagnant and World net-export production has been decreasing since 2005. Thus the price remains high and will only increase in the future. Growth in Global GDP is impacted by high-priced oil. How do you know unethical behavior when you see it? It has to do with intentionality and motivation. "Advocacy science" often reports data to support their cause. Is that unethical? Where is the divide between being an "Issue Advocate" and "Advocacy Science"? If data are reported poorly, is it unethical or just "bad science"? Do the same ethical standards apply to businesses (when profits are involved) and politicians (when elections are at stake)? Why would the definition of oil include NGL, condensates and refinery gains if not trying to inflate the numbers. The standards should be the same, but when there are no

Formation of the metal and energy-carrier price clusters on the world market of nonferrous metals in the postcrisis period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogdanov, S. V.; Shevelev, I. M.; Chernyi, S. A.

2016-06-01

The laws of formation of price clusters are revealed upon statistical processing of the data on changing the quotation prices of nonferrous and precious metals, oil, black oil, gasoline, and natural gas in the postcrisis period from January 1, 2009 to November 1, 2013. It is found that the metal prices entering in the price cluster of nonferrous metals most strongly affect the formation of the nonferrous metal price and that the prices of precious metals and energy carriers correct the exchange price of the metal to some extent but do not determine its formation. Equations are derived to calculate the prices. The results of calculation by these equations agree well with the real nonferrous metal prices in the near future.

Federal policies affecting the wellhead value of Prudhoe Bay crude oil. A report to the Alaska legislative council's subcommittee on oil and gas leasing and taxing policies, ninth Alaska state legislature

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tussing, A.

1977-03-28

Markets for North Slope crude; FEA price ceilings and Prudhoe Bay crude oil prices; entitlements treatment of North Slope crude; and the question of exports and the long term oil supply picture are covered.

Cigarette prices and community price comparisons in US military retail stores.

PubMed

Poston, Walker S C; Haddock, Christopher K; Jahnke, Sara A; Smith, Elizabeth; Malone, Ruth E; Jitnarin, Nattinee

2016-09-01

Tobacco pricing impacts use, yet military retailers sell discounted cigarettes. No systematic research has examined how military retail stores use internal community comparisons to set prices. We analysed data obtained through a Freedom of Information Act request on community price comparisons used by military retail to set cigarette prices. Data on cigarette prices were obtained directly from military retailers (exchanges) from January 2013 to March 2014. Complete pricing data were obtained from exchanges on 114 military installations. The average price for a pack of Marlboro cigarettes in military exchanges was US$5.51, which was similar to the average lowest community price (US$5.45; mean difference=-0.06; p=0.104) and almost a US$1.00 lower than the average highest price (US$6.44). Military retail prices were 2.1%, 6.2% and 13.7% higher than the lowest, average and highest community comparisons, respectively, and 18.2% of exchange prices violated pricing instructions. There was a negative correlation (r=-0.21, p=0.02) between the number of community stores surveyed and exchange cigarette prices. There was no significant difference between prices for cigarettes on military installations and the lowest average community comparison, and in some locations, the prices violated Department of Defense (DoD) policy. US Marine Corps exchanges had the lowest prices, which is of concern given that the Marines also have the highest rates of tobacco use in the DoD. Given the relationship between tobacco product prices and demand, a common minimum (or floor) shelf price for tobacco products should be set for all exchanges and discount coupon redemptions should be prohibited. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Market interdependence among commodity prices based on information transmission on the Internet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, Qiang; Guo, Jian-Feng

2015-05-01

Human behaviour on the Internet has become a synchro-projection of real society. In this paper, we introduce the public concern derived from query volumes on the Web to empirically analyse the influence of information on commodity markets (e.g., crude oil, heating oil, corn and gold) using multivariate GARCH models based on dynamic conditional correlations. The analysis found that the changes of public concern on the Internet can well depict the changes of market prices, as the former has significant Granger causality effects on market prices. The findings indicate that the information of external shocks to commodity markets could be transmitted quickly, and commodity markets easily absorb the public concern of the information-sensitive traders. Finally, the conditional correlation among commodity prices varies dramatically over time.

Chemical Relationship On Detection Of Ganoderma Disease On Oil Palm Tree System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imran, S. N. M.; Baharudin, F.; Ali, M. F.; Rahiman, M. H. F.

2018-04-01

Detection of fungal disease is the major issues in agricultural management and production. This disease would attack the plantation area and damaging the based root or the stem tissue of the trees. In oil palm industry, Basal Stem Rot (BSR) is the major disease in Malaysia that caused by a fungal named Ganoderma Boninense species. Since agricultural areas in Malaysia are the great factors that contribute in the economic sector, therefore the prevention and controlling this disease situation are needed to reduce the extent of the infection. These plant diseases are mostly being caused by the inflectional disease form such as viruses, viroids, bacteria, protozoa and even parasitic plants. It also could included mites and vertebrate or small insects that consume the plant tissues. Studies focused more on the breeding and relationship of the disease in the stumps, roots and soil system if oil palm trees by identifying the heavy metal; Phosphorus, copper, Iron, Manganese, Potassium and Zinc characteristic. Samples were taken from various types of physical appearance of the trees. It shows the relationship of the fungal disease breeding between oil palm trees and the heavy metals does affect the tree’s system.

Price transmission between products at different stages of manufacturing in forest industries

Treesearch

Mo Zhou; Joseph Buongiorno

2005-01-01

The theory of demand and supply implies a positive relationship, or "price transmission" between the prices of products at different stages of manufacturing, This relationship was investigated with quarterly prices of softwood stumpage in the US South, and national prices of forest products, from 1977 to 2002. All prices, net of inflation, were found to be...

A silver lining to higher prices at the pump? Gasoline prices and teen driving behaviors.

PubMed

Sen, Bisakha; Patidar, Nitish; Thomas, Sheikilya

2014-01-01

Existing literature shows negative relationships between gasoline price and motor vehicle crashes, particularly among teens. This paper extends that literature by evaluating the relationship between gasoline price and self-reported risky driving among teens. Observational study using multivariate empirical analysis, using pooled data from the Youth Risk Behavior Survey, waves 2003-2009. Secondary data from survey administered in private and public high schools across the United States. Students in grades 9 through 12, surveyed biennially from 2003 to 2009 (n = 58,749). Outcomes are (self-reported) driving without seatbelts, driving after consuming alcohol, and moderate physical activity (like walking or bicycling). State-level retail gasoline prices constitute the main predictor variable. Multivariate logistic models are estimated for the full sample, as well as by gender, race/ethnicity, and age. Individual characteristics, state unemployment, and state driving policies are controlled for. Standard errors are clustered at the state level. Results are reported in form of risk differences. Higher gasoline prices are negatively and significantly associated with driving without seatbelts. Associations are particularly strong for males and minorities. There are fewer statistical associations between gasoline prices and driving after drinking. Higher gasoline prices are positively associated with more moderate physical activity. Higher gasoline prices are associated with less risky driving behaviors among teens, and they may be associated with more active forms of transportation, like walking and bicycling. The study limitations are discussed.

Price-Weight Relationships of General Aviation, Helicopters, Transport Aircraft and Engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, Joseph L.

1981-01-01

The NASA must assess its aeronautical research program with economic as well as performance measures. It thus is interested in what price a new technology aircraft would carry to make it attractive to the buyer. But what price a given airplane or helicopter will carry is largely a reflection of the manufacturer's assessment of the competitive market into which the new aircraft will be introduced. The manufacturer must weigh any new aerodynamic or system technology innovation he would add to an aircraft by the impact of this innovation upon the aircraft's cost to manufacture, economic attractiveness and price. The intent of this paper is to give price standards against which new technologies and the NASA's research program can be assessed. Using reported prices for sailplanes, general aviation, agriculture, helicopter, business and transport aircraft, price estimating relations in terms of engine and airframe characteristics have been developed. The relations are given in terms of the aircraft type, its manufactured empty weight, engine weight, horsepower or thrust. Factors for the effects of inflation are included to aid in making predictions of future aircraft prices. There are discussions of aircraft price in terms of number of passenger seats, airplane size and research and development costs related to an aircraft model, and indirectly how new technologies, aircraft complexity and inflation have affected these.

NBER working paper series: oil and the dollar. Working Paper No. 554

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krugman, P.

1980-01-01

This paper develops a simple theoretical model of the effect of an oil price increase on exchange rates. The model shows that the direction of this effect depends on a comparison of the direct balance of payments burden of the higher oil price with the indirect balance of payments benefits of OPEC spending and investment. In the short run, what matters is whether the US share of world oil imports is more or less than its share of OPEC asset holdings; in the long run, whether its share of oil imports is more or less than its share of OPECmore » imports. Casual empiricism suggests that the initial effect and the long run effect will run in opposite directions; an oil price increase will initially lead to dollar appreciation, but eventually leads to dollar depreciation.« less

Essays on pricing dynamics, price dispersion, and nested logit modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verlinda, Jeremy Alan

The body of this dissertation comprises three standalone essays, presented in three respective chapters. Chapter One explores the possibility that local market power contributes to the asymmetric relationship observed between wholesale costs and retail prices in gasoline markets. I exploit an original data set of weekly gas station prices in Southern California from September 2002 to May 2003, and take advantage of highly detailed station and local market-level characteristics to determine the extent to which spatial differentiation influences price-response asymmetry. I find that brand identity, proximity to rival stations, bundling and advertising, operation type, and local market features and demographics each influence a station's predicted asymmetric relationship between prices and wholesale costs. Chapter Two extends the existing literature on the effect of market structure on price dispersion in airline fares by modeling the effect at the disaggregate ticket level. Whereas past studies rely on aggregate measures of price dispersion such as the Gini coefficient or the standard deviation of fares, this paper estimates the entire empirical distribution of airline fares and documents how the shape of the distribution is determined by market structure. Specifically, I find that monopoly markets favor a wider distribution of fares with more mass in the tails while duopoly and competitive markets exhibit a tighter fare distribution. These findings indicate that the dispersion of airline fares may result from the efforts of airlines to practice second-degree price discrimination. Chapter Three adopts a Bayesian approach to the problem of tree structure specification in nested logit modelling, which requires a heavy computational burden in calculating marginal likelihoods. I compare two different techniques for estimating marginal likelihoods: (1) the Laplace approximation, and (2) reversible jump MCMC. I apply the techniques to both a simulated and a travel mode

10 CFR 212.78 - Tertiary incentive crude oil.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 10 Energy 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Tertiary incentive crude oil. 212.78 Section 212.78 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OIL MANDATORY PETROLEUM PRICE REGULATIONS Producers of Crude Oil § 212.78 Tertiary incentive crude oil. Annual prepaid expenses report. By January 31 of each year after 1980, the project...

10 CFR 212.78 - Tertiary incentive crude oil.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 10 Energy 3 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Tertiary incentive crude oil. 212.78 Section 212.78 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OIL MANDATORY PETROLEUM PRICE REGULATIONS Producers of Crude Oil § 212.78 Tertiary incentive crude oil. Annual prepaid expenses report. By January 31 of each year after 1980, the project...

10 CFR 212.78 - Tertiary incentive crude oil.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 10 Energy 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Tertiary incentive crude oil. 212.78 Section 212.78 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OIL MANDATORY PETROLEUM PRICE REGULATIONS Producers of Crude Oil § 212.78 Tertiary incentive crude oil. Annual prepaid expenses report. By January 31 of each year after 1980, the project...

10 CFR 212.78 - Tertiary incentive crude oil.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... operator with respect to any enhanced oil recovery project for which a report had been filed previously... 10 Energy 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Tertiary incentive crude oil. 212.78 Section 212.78 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OIL MANDATORY PETROLEUM PRICE REGULATIONS Producers of Crude Oil § 212.78 Tertiary...

30 CFR 1220.015 - Pricing of materiel purchases, transfers, and dispositions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 30 Mineral Resources 3 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Pricing of materiel purchases, transfers, and... PAYMENT FOR OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF OIL AND GAS LEASES § 1220.015 Pricing of materiel purchases, transfers... accordance with § 1220.011(c)(3). (2) Transferred and disposal materiel. An item of materiel, which is...

The Magic of Energy: Oil Surely Changed the Way that Humans Value Energy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Deal, Walter F., III

2005-01-01

Recently, the price of gasoline seems to keep going up and up with seemingly no limit in sight. Accordingly, the price of a barrel of oil is in excess of sixty dollars today, when just a few years ago it was around twelve to fifteen dollars a barrel. There are many intertwined answers as to why the price of oil and gasoline are increasing.…

Identification of the Relationship between Oil Body Morphology and Oil Content by Microstructure Comparison Combining with QTL Analysis in Brassica napus

PubMed Central

Gu, Jianwei; Chao, Hongbo; Wang, Hao; Li, Yonghong; Li, Dianrong; Xiang, Jun; Gan, Jianping; Lu, Guangyuan; Zhang, Xuekun; Long, Yan; Li, Maoteng

2017-01-01

Oil bodies (OBs) are relatively simple but very important organelles comprising a matrix of triacylglycerol (TAG) surrounded by a phospholipid monolayer embedded and covered with unique proteins. The OB structure in Brassica napus with different oil content and the relationship between the oil content and the OB structure needs to be better understood. In this paper, the characteristics of OBs in the embryo of a series of B. napus materials with different oil content ranging from 34% to over 60% were studied. The results indicated that the OB size was significantly positively correlated with the oil content but was significantly negatively correlated with the glucosinolates and the protein content. Many genes associated with TAG synthesis, OB-membrane proteins, and the cell progress regulatory pathway were identified in the confidence interval of co-located QTLs for oil content, fatty acid (FA) compositions, and protein content. Our results suggested that the morphology of OBs might be directly controlled by the genes associated with OB-membrane proteins and indirectly controlled by the genes associated with TAG synthesis and cell progress regulatory pathway. PMID:28111582

Identification of the Relationship between Oil Body Morphology and Oil Content by Microstructure Comparison Combining with QTL Analysis in Brassica napus.

PubMed

Gu, Jianwei; Chao, Hongbo; Wang, Hao; Li, Yonghong; Li, Dianrong; Xiang, Jun; Gan, Jianping; Lu, Guangyuan; Zhang, Xuekun; Long, Yan; Li, Maoteng

2016-01-01

Oil bodies (OBs) are relatively simple but very important organelles comprising a matrix of triacylglycerol (TAG) surrounded by a phospholipid monolayer embedded and covered with unique proteins. The OB structure in Brassica napus with different oil content and the relationship between the oil content and the OB structure needs to be better understood. In this paper, the characteristics of OBs in the embryo of a series of B. napus materials with different oil content ranging from 34% to over 60% were studied. The results indicated that the OB size was significantly positively correlated with the oil content but was significantly negatively correlated with the glucosinolates and the protein content. Many genes associated with TAG synthesis, OB-membrane proteins, and the cell progress regulatory pathway were identified in the confidence interval of co-located QTLs for oil content, fatty acid (FA) compositions, and protein content. Our results suggested that the morphology of OBs might be directly controlled by the genes associated with OB-membrane proteins and indirectly controlled by the genes associated with TAG synthesis and cell progress regulatory pathway.

Leadership Strategies for Maintaining Profitability in a Volatile Crude Oil Market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braimoh, Lucky Anderson

Volatile crude oil prices significantly affect the profitability of crude oil firms. The purpose of this single case study was to explore strategies some crude oil and gas business leaders used to remain profitable during periods of crude oil price volatility. The target population comprised 8 crude oil and gas business leaders located in Calgary, Canada, whose company remained profitable despite crude oil price volatility. The transformational leadership theory formed the conceptual framework for the study. Data were collected through the use of semistructured face-to-face interviews, company reports, and field notes. Data analysis involved a modified Van Kamm method, which included descriptive coding, a sequential review of the interview transcripts, and member checking. Based on methodological triangulation and thematic analysis, 5 themes emerged from the study, including communication and engagement; motivation and empowerment; measurement, monitoring, and control; self-awareness and humility; and efficiency and optimization. The implications for social change include the potential for crude oil and gas companies in Calgary, Canada to manage production costs, ensure earnings and profitability, and thus improve the socioeconomic well-being of Calgary indigenes through improved employment opportunities.

48 CFR 16.403 - Fixed-price incentive contracts.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... relationship of total final negotiated cost to total target cost. The final price is subject to a price ceiling, negotiated at the outset. The two forms of fixed-price incentive contracts, firm target and successive targets, are further described in 16.403-1 and 16.403-2 below. (b) Application. A fixed-price incentive...

48 CFR 16.403 - Fixed-price incentive contracts.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... relationship of total final negotiated cost to total target cost. The final price is subject to a price ceiling, negotiated at the outset. The two forms of fixed-price incentive contracts, firm target and successive targets, are further described in 16.403-1 and 16.403-2 below. (b) Application. A fixed-price incentive...

Preparation of Jojoba Oil Ester Derivatives for Biodiesel Evaluation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

As a result of the increase in commodity vegetable oil prices, it is imperative that non-food oils should be considered as alternative feedstocks for biodiesel production. Jojoba oil is unusual in that it is comprised of wax esters as opposed to the triglycerides found in typical vegetable oils. A...

Fish market prices drive overfishing of the 'big ones'.

PubMed

Tsikliras, Athanassios C; Polymeros, Konstantinos

2014-01-01

The relationship between fish market price and body size has not been explored much in fisheries science. Here, the mean market prices and fish body size were collected in order to examine the hypothesis that large fish, both among- and within-species, are being selectively targeted by fisheries because they may yield greater profit. Trophic levels, vulnerability to fishing and global landings were also collected because these variables may also be related to the market fish price. These relationships were examined using generalized additive models (GAM), which showed that, among species, fish market price was positively dependent on maximum total length (P = 0.0024) and negatively on landings (P = 0.0006), whereas it was independent of trophic level (P > 0.05) and vulnerability to fishing (P > 0.05). When the fish price vs. size relationship was tested within-species, large individuals were consistently attaining higher market prices compared to their medium and small-sized counterparts. We conclude that the selective removal of the larger fish, which is driven by their market price and to a lesser extent by their availability, may contribute to their overfishing.

33 CFR 137.75 - The relationship of the purchase price to the value of the facility and the real property on...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) MARINE POLLUTION FINANCIAL RESPONSIBILITY AND...-OWNER DEFENSE Standards and Practices § 137.75 The relationship of the purchase price to the value of...

33 CFR 137.75 - The relationship of the purchase price to the value of the facility and the real property on...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) MARINE POLLUTION FINANCIAL RESPONSIBILITY AND...-OWNER DEFENSE Standards and Practices § 137.75 The relationship of the purchase price to the value of...

33 CFR 137.75 - The relationship of the purchase price to the value of the facility and the real property on...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) MARINE POLLUTION FINANCIAL RESPONSIBILITY AND...-OWNER DEFENSE Standards and Practices § 137.75 The relationship of the purchase price to the value of...

33 CFR 137.75 - The relationship of the purchase price to the value of the facility and the real property on...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) MARINE POLLUTION FINANCIAL RESPONSIBILITY AND...-OWNER DEFENSE Standards and Practices § 137.75 The relationship of the purchase price to the value of...

33 CFR 137.75 - The relationship of the purchase price to the value of the facility and the real property on...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) MARINE POLLUTION FINANCIAL RESPONSIBILITY AND...-OWNER DEFENSE Standards and Practices § 137.75 The relationship of the purchase price to the value of...

The 1986 world oil puzzle: Confusion and anxiety

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Field, S.

1986-01-01

The turbulent international political and economic events of the 1970s and 1980s reinforce the instinctive feeling that the future is inherently unpredictable. Yet we continue to strive for a perception of the future because it is a necessary component of a rational framework for intelligent decision making. In this paper, the chronological evolution of oil pricing is presented to provide an historical perspective to view current events. The outlook for the main determinants of oil price is then examined.

Has competition lowered hospital prices?

PubMed

Zwanziger, Jack; Mooney, Cathleen

2005-01-01

On Jan. 1, 1997, New York ended its regulation of hospital prices with the intent of using competitive markets to control prices and increase efficiency. This paper uses data that come from annual reports filed by all health maintenance organizations (HMOs) operating in New York and include payments to and usage in the major hospitals in an HMO's network. We estimate the relationship between implied prices and hospital, plan, and market characteristics. The models show that after 1997, hospitals in more competitive markets paid less. Partially offsetting these price reductions were price increases associated with hospital mergers that reduced the competitiveness of the local market. Hospital deregulation was successful, at least in the short run, in using price competition to reduce hospital payments; it is unclear whether this success will be undermined by the structural changes taking place in the hospital industry.

Political economy of oil

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Banks, F.E.

1980-01-01

A nontechnical discussion of the political economy of the world oil market is intended to inform the beginning student as well as serve as a reference book. Beginning with definitions and an explanation of units, the text covers the world economy, oil supply, oil prices, oil consumption and non-oil energy materials supplies, oil companies, macroeconomics, and the market in an effort to relate both macro- and microeconomic phenomena. Professor Banks feels that population is the most crucial factor in economics today, followed by nonfuel minerals and energy; the technical problems pertaining to energy, however, can be managed if the firstmore » two are faced and dealt with. He thinks the outlook is good for replacing oil with other energy sources. 143 references, 23 figures, 26 tables. (DKC)« less

Essays on oil and business cycles in Saudi Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aba Alkhail, Bandar A.

This dissertation consists of three chapters. Chapter one presents a theoretical model using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) approach to investigate the role of world oil prices in explaining the business cycle in Saudi Arabia. This model incorporates both productivity and oil revenue shocks. The results indicate that productivity shocks are relatively more important to business cycles than oil shocks. However, this model has some unfavorable features that are associated with both investment and labor hours. The second chapter presents a modified theoretical model using DSGE approach to examine the role of world oil prices versus productivity shocks in explaining the business cycles in Saudi Arabia. To overcome the unfavorable features of the baseline model, the alternative model adds friction to the model by incorporating investment portfolio adjustment cost. Thus, the alternative model produces similar dynamics to that of the baseline model but the unfavorable characteristics are eliminated. Also, this chapter conducts sensitivity analysis. The objective of the third chapter is to empirically investigate how real world oil price and productivity shocks affect output, consumption, investment, labor hours, and trade balance/output ratio for Saudi Arabia. This chapter complements the theoretical model of the previous chapters. In addition, this study builds a foundation for future studies in examining the impact of real world oil price shocks on the economies of key trade partners of Saudi Arabia. The results of the third chapter show that productivity shocks matter more for macroeconomic fluctuations than oil shocks for the Saudis' primary trade partners. Therefore, fears of oil importing countries appear to be overstated. As a whole, this research is important for the following reasons. First, the empirical model is consistent with the predictions of our theoretical model in that productivity is a driving force of business cycles in Saudi Arabia

Oil, Japan, and globalization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bina, C.

Today, the globalization of the international economy is nowhere as evident and complete as in the oil industry. Indeed, the production, distribution, and pricing of oil have already been infused into a transnational network of interconnected, transparent, and competitive markets. This sort of market arrangement, unlike its previous cartelized counterpart, rests upon a highly globalized economic framework whose very existence discourages a need for Western military intervention for the sake of oil. Returning to the bygone era, and judging the oil business accordingly, would create an impression that nothing has changed. This article describes the conflict of hegemony between themore » U.S. and Japan in the context of the global oil market.« less

Identifying Where REDD+ Financially Out-Competes Oil Palm in Floodplain Landscapes Using a Fine-Scale Approach

PubMed Central

MacMillan, Douglas C.; Xofis, Panteleimon; Ancrenaz, Marc; Tzanopoulos, Joseph; Ong, Robert; Goossens, Benoit; Koh, Lian Pin; Del Valle, Christian; Peter, Lucy; Morel, Alexandra C.; Lackman, Isabelle; Chung, Robin; Kler, Harjinder; Ambu, Laurentius; Baya, William; Knight, Andrew T.

2016-01-01

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) aims to avoid forest conversion to alternative land-uses through financial incentives. Oil-palm has high opportunity costs, which according to current literature questions the financial competitiveness of REDD+ in tropical lowlands. To understand this more, we undertook regional fine-scale and coarse-scale analyses (through carbon mapping and economic modelling) to assess the financial viability of REDD+ in safeguarding unprotected forest (30,173 ha) in the Lower Kinabatangan floodplain in Malaysian Borneo. Results estimate 4.7 million metric tons of carbon (MgC) in unprotected forest, with 64% allocated for oil-palm cultivations. Through fine-scale mapping and carbon accounting, we demonstrated that REDD+ can outcompete oil-palm in regions with low suitability, with low carbon prices and low carbon stock. In areas with medium oil-palm suitability, REDD+ could outcompete oil palm in areas with: very high carbon and lower carbon price; medium carbon price and average carbon stock; or, low carbon stock and high carbon price. Areas with high oil palm suitability, REDD+ could only outcompete with higher carbon price and higher carbon stock. In the coarse-scale model, oil-palm outcompeted REDD+ in all cases. For the fine-scale models at the landscape level, low carbon offset prices (US $3 MgCO2e) would enable REDD+ to outcompete oil-palm in 55% of the unprotected forests requiring US $27 million to secure these areas for 25 years. Higher carbon offset price (US $30 MgCO2e) would increase the competitiveness of REDD+ within the landscape but would still only capture between 69%-74% of the unprotected forest, requiring US $380–416 million in carbon financing. REDD+ has been identified as a strategy to mitigate climate change by many countries (including Malaysia). Although REDD+ in certain scenarios cannot outcompete oil palm, this research contributes to the global REDD+ debate by: highlighting REDD

Identifying Where REDD+ Financially Out-Competes Oil Palm in Floodplain Landscapes Using a Fine-Scale Approach.

PubMed

Abram, Nicola K; MacMillan, Douglas C; Xofis, Panteleimon; Ancrenaz, Marc; Tzanopoulos, Joseph; Ong, Robert; Goossens, Benoit; Koh, Lian Pin; Del Valle, Christian; Peter, Lucy; Morel, Alexandra C; Lackman, Isabelle; Chung, Robin; Kler, Harjinder; Ambu, Laurentius; Baya, William; Knight, Andrew T

2016-01-01

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) aims to avoid forest conversion to alternative land-uses through financial incentives. Oil-palm has high opportunity costs, which according to current literature questions the financial competitiveness of REDD+ in tropical lowlands. To understand this more, we undertook regional fine-scale and coarse-scale analyses (through carbon mapping and economic modelling) to assess the financial viability of REDD+ in safeguarding unprotected forest (30,173 ha) in the Lower Kinabatangan floodplain in Malaysian Borneo. Results estimate 4.7 million metric tons of carbon (MgC) in unprotected forest, with 64% allocated for oil-palm cultivations. Through fine-scale mapping and carbon accounting, we demonstrated that REDD+ can outcompete oil-palm in regions with low suitability, with low carbon prices and low carbon stock. In areas with medium oil-palm suitability, REDD+ could outcompete oil palm in areas with: very high carbon and lower carbon price; medium carbon price and average carbon stock; or, low carbon stock and high carbon price. Areas with high oil palm suitability, REDD+ could only outcompete with higher carbon price and higher carbon stock. In the coarse-scale model, oil-palm outcompeted REDD+ in all cases. For the fine-scale models at the landscape level, low carbon offset prices (US $3 MgCO2e) would enable REDD+ to outcompete oil-palm in 55% of the unprotected forests requiring US $27 million to secure these areas for 25 years. Higher carbon offset price (US $30 MgCO2e) would increase the competitiveness of REDD+ within the landscape but would still only capture between 69%-74% of the unprotected forest, requiring US $380-416 million in carbon financing. REDD+ has been identified as a strategy to mitigate climate change by many countries (including Malaysia). Although REDD+ in certain scenarios cannot outcompete oil palm, this research contributes to the global REDD+ debate by: highlighting REDD

Alcohol prices, beverage quality, and the demand for alcohol: quality substitutions and price elasticities.

PubMed

Gruenewald, Paul J; Ponicki, William R; Holder, Harold D; Romelsjö, Anders

2006-01-01

Although the published literature on alcohol beverage taxes, prices, sales, and related problems treats alcoholic beverages as a simple good, alcohol is a complex good composed of different beverage types (i.e., beer, wine, and spirits) and quality brands (e.g., high-, medium-, and low-quality beers). As a complex good, consumers may make substitutions between purchases of different beverage types and brands in response to price increases. For this reason, the availability of a broad range of beverage prices provides opportunities for consumers to mitigate the effects of average price increases through quality substitutions; a change in beverage choice in response to price increases to maintain consumption. Using Swedish price and sales data provided by Systembolaget for the years 1984 through 1994, this study assessed the relationships between alcohol beverage prices, beverage quality, and alcohol sales. The study examined price effects on alcohol consumption using seemingly unrelated regression equations to model the impacts of price increases within 9 empirically defined quality classes across beverage types. The models enabled statistical assessments of both own-price and cross-price effects between types and classes. The results of these analyses showed that consumers respond to price increases by altering their total consumption and by varying their brand choices. Significant reductions in sales were observed in response to price increases, but these effects were mitigated by significant substitutions between quality classes. The findings suggest that the net impacts of purposeful price policy to reduce consumption will depend on how such policies affect the range of prices across beverage brands.

Pricing Software and Information on CD-ROM.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gibbins, Patrick

1987-01-01

Examines the relationships between purchases of optical data disk products, publishers, and software suppliers. The discussion covers current pricing strategies for optical data disk software and information products, and possible future developments in marketing and pricing. (CLB)

Comparative analysis of EPA and DHA in fish oil nutritional capsules by GC-MS.

PubMed

Yi, Tao; Li, Shuk-Man; Fan, Jia-Yi; Fan, Lan-Lan; Zhang, Zhi-Feng; Luo, Pei; Zhang, Xiao-Jun; Wang, Jian-Gang; Zhu, Lin; Zhao, Zhong-Zhen; Chen, Hu-Biao

2014-12-13

Fish oil is a popular nutritional product consumed in Hong Kong. Eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) are the two main bioactive components responsible for the health benefits of fish oil. Market survey in Hong Kong demonstrated that various fish oil capsules with different origins and prices are sold simultaneously. However, these capsules are labelled with same ingredient levels, namely EPA 180 mg/g and DHA 120 mg/g. This situation makes the consumers very confused. To evaluate the quality of various fish oil capsules, a comparative analysis of the contents of EPA and DHA in fish oil is crucial. A gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) method was developed for identification and determination of EPA and DHA in fish oil capsules. A comprehensive validation of the developed method was conducted. Ten batches of fish oil capsules samples purchased from drugstores of Hong Kong were analyzed by using the developed method. The present method presented good sensitivity, precision and accuracy. The limits of detection (LOD) for EPA and DHA were 0.08 ng and 0.21 ng, respectively. The relative standard deviation (RSD) values of EPA and DHA for repeatability tests were both less than 1.05%; and the recovery for accuracy test of EPA and DHA were 100.50% and 103.83%, respectively. In ten fish oil samples, the contents of EPA ranged from 39.52 mg/g to 509.16 mg/g, and the contents of DHA ranged from 35.14 mg/g to 645.70 mg/g. The present method is suitable for the quantitative analysis of EPA and DHA in fish oil capsules. There is a significant variation in the contents of the quantified components in fish oil samples, and there is not a linear relationship between price and contents of EPA and DHA. Strict supervision of the labelling of the fish oil capsules is urgently needed.

Oil and gas freight transportation alternatives : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-11-11

Editors Note: At the time of this writing (fall 2016), oil prices are rising from recent lows. The effect of the price drop has been to reduce oilfield activity and limit, but not eliminate, additional damage being done to energy-impacted roads. E...

Probabilities of Possible Future Prices (Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement April 2010)

EIA Publications

2010-01-01

The Energy Information Administration introduced a monthly analysis of energy price volatility and forecast uncertainty in the October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Included in the analysis were charts portraying confidence intervals around the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) futures prices of West Texas Intermediate (equivalent to light sweet crude oil) and Henry Hub natural gas contracts.

Oil: a guide through the total energy jungle

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Windsor, P.

1976-01-01

The primary fact is, according to Mr. Windsor, that there is no shortage of oil and there won't be for many years to come--ample time for advanced technologies to provide other sources of energy if only.... This is not to downgrade the severity of the crisis--but to say that the major dangers lie elsewhere, in politics, in monetary, fiscal, social and military national policies. The author traces an easily comprehensible line for connection through these complexities. Here is a brief history of oil, of the great oil companies, their connections with their governments and their continuing, if diminishing, importance. Heremore » are answers to such vital questions as: why a complex OPEC country like Iran might want maximum oil production and the highest possible rate of price increase while a smaller and simpler one like Saudi Arabia might want to keep its oil in the ground and ask more moderate prices; what effect the price of oil may have on world economic stability and the capabilities of Western technology; how oil is now setting back if not destroying the Green Revolution in new and developing countries; why it is perhaps sensible to develop oil fields off Scotland and Alaska, and elsewhere, even though the wellhead cost per barrel is astronomically higher than in Saudi Arabia. These matters, and many others like them, are not separate although they have devastating particular effects. In the end, more concerned with international relations than with oil itself or economics in the strict sense of the word, this book points out that the solution must be political on a multinational scale and requires foresight and forbearance of a kind uncommon in history. (from book jacket)« less

Multifractality, efficiency analysis of Chinese stock market and its cross-correlation with WTI crude oil price

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, Xiaoyang; Wei, Yu; Ma, Feng

2015-07-01

In this paper, the multifractality and efficiency degrees of ten important Chinese sectoral indices are evaluated using the methods of MF-DFA and generalized Hurst exponents. The study also scrutinizes the dynamics of the efficiency of Chinese sectoral stock market by the rolling window approach. The overall empirical findings revealed that all the sectoral indices of Chinese stock market exist different degrees of multifractality. The results of different efficiency measures have agreed on that the 300 Materials index is the least efficient index. However, they have a slight diffidence on the most efficient one. The 300 Information Technology, 300 Telecommunication Services and 300 Health Care indices are comparatively efficient. We also investigate the cross-correlations between the ten sectoral indices and WTI crude oil price based on Multifractal Detrended Cross-correlation Analysis. At last, some relevant discussions and implications of the empirical results are presented.

Fish is food--the FAO's fish price index.

PubMed

Tveterås, Sigbjørn; Asche, Frank; Bellemare, Marc F; Smith, Martin D; Guttormsen, Atle G; Lem, Audun; Lien, Kristin; Vannuccini, Stefania

2012-01-01

World food prices hit an all-time high in February 2011 and are still almost two and a half times those of 2000. Although three billion people worldwide use seafood as a key source of animal protein, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations-which compiles prices for other major food categories-has not tracked seafood prices. We fill this gap by developing an index of global seafood prices that can help to understand food crises and may assist in averting them. The fish price index (FPI) relies on trade statistics because seafood is heavily traded internationally, exposing non-traded seafood to price competition from imports and exports. Easily updated trade data can thus proxy for domestic seafood prices that are difficult to observe in many regions and costly to update with global coverage. Calculations of the extent of price competition in different countries support the plausibility of reliance on trade data. Overall, the FPI shows less volatility and fewer price spikes than other food price indices including oils, cereals, and dairy. The FPI generally reflects seafood scarcity, but it can also be separated into indices by production technology, fish species, or region. Splitting FPI into capture fisheries and aquaculture suggests increased scarcity of capture fishery resources in recent years, but also growth in aquaculture that is keeping pace with demand. Regionally, seafood price volatility varies, and some prices are negatively correlated. These patterns hint that regional supply shocks are consequential for seafood prices in spite of the high degree of seafood tradability.

Fish market prices drive overfishing of the ‘big ones’

PubMed Central

Polymeros, Konstantinos

2014-01-01

The relationship between fish market price and body size has not been explored much in fisheries science. Here, the mean market prices and fish body size were collected in order to examine the hypothesis that large fish, both among- and within-species, are being selectively targeted by fisheries because they may yield greater profit. Trophic levels, vulnerability to fishing and global landings were also collected because these variables may also be related to the market fish price. These relationships were examined using generalized additive models (GAM), which showed that, among species, fish market price was positively dependent on maximum total length (P = 0.0024) and negatively on landings (P = 0.0006), whereas it was independent of trophic level (P > 0.05) and vulnerability to fishing (P > 0.05). When the fish price vs. size relationship was tested within-species, large individuals were consistently attaining higher market prices compared to their medium and small-sized counterparts. We conclude that the selective removal of the larger fish, which is driven by their market price and to a lesser extent by their availability, may contribute to their overfishing. PMID:25392754

Effect of market factors on the short-time pricing of stock-exchange metals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogdanov, S. V.; Shevelev, I. M.; Chernyi, S. A.

2016-12-01

The open trade on the world market is estimated using information of one-day exchange prices of nonferrous and precious metals, oil, reduced crude, and gasoline and the main world stock indices in the time period from January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2015. It is found that the short-term changes in the prices of nonferrous metals are determined by the prices on the metal market. The changes in the prices of energy carriers and the stock trade on the stock market weakly influence the pricing of nonferrous and precious metals. The prices of metals depend on the situation during trade on commodity exchanges, and the stock market indirectly influences the exchange prices of metals through changes in the share prices of the companies that produce copper, aluminum, and zinc.

Relationships among rat numbers, abundance of oil palm fruit and damage levels to fruit in an oil palm plantation.

PubMed

Puan, Chong Leong; Goldizen, Anne W; Zakaria, Mohamed; Hafidzi, Mohd N; Baxter, Greg S

2011-06-01

The relationships between vertebrate pests and crop damage are often complex and difficult to study. In palm oil plantations rodents remain the major pests, causing substantial monetary losses. The present study examined the numerical and functional responses of rodents to changes in the availability of oil palm fruit and the damage associated with that response. For the study, 200 traps were set in pairs on a 10 × 10 trapping grid for 3 consecutive nights in each of 6 study plots at 8-week intervals in a 2569 ha oil palm plantation at Labu, Negeri Sembilan state in Peninsular Malaysia over 14 months. A total of 1292 individual rats were captured over 25 200 trap-nights. Animals were identified, aged, sexed, weighed and measured. An index of the relative abundance of rats was calculated based on trapping success. Damage to infructescences was assessed at each trap point. Regardless of the age of palms, there were positive and significant relationships between the relative abundance of rats and numbers of infructescences. The levels of damage to infructescences were significantly correlated with the relative abundance of rats. A steep increase in damage was observed with an increase in mature infructescences, indicating a feeding preference of rats for mature infructescences. For both males and females of all rat species, there were weak and non-significant correlations between body condition and infructescence numbers. These results indicated that there was a numerical and a functional response by rats to the availability of palm fruit and a resulting increase in depredation of oil palm fruits. The ways in which this information might aid in future pest control are discussed. © 2011 ISZS, Blackwell Publishing and IOZ/CAS.

CO 2 Sequestration and Enhanced Oil Recovery at Depleted Oil/Gas Reservoirs

DOE PAGES

Dai, Zhenxue; Viswanathan, Hari; Xiao, Ting; ...

2017-08-18

This study presents a quantitative evaluation of the operational and technical risks of an active CO 2-EOR project. A set of risk factor metrics is defined to post-process the Monte Carlo (MC) simulations for statistical analysis. The risk factors are expressed as measurable quantities that can be used to gain insight into project risk (e.g. environmental and economic risks) without the need to generate a rigorous consequence structure, which include (a) CO 2 injection rate, (b) net CO 2 injection rate, (c) cumulative CO 2 storage, (d) cumulative water injection, (e) oil production rate, (f) cumulative oil production, (g) cumulativemore » CH 4 production, and (h) CO 2 breakthrough time. The Morrow reservoir at the Farnsworth Unit (FWU) site, Texas, is used as an example for studying the multi-scale statistical approach for CO 2 accounting and risk analysis. A set of geostatistical-based MC simulations of CO 2-oil/gas-water flow and transport in the Morrow formation are conducted for evaluating the risk metrics. A response-surface-based economic model has been derived to calculate the CO 2-EOR profitability for the FWU site with a current oil price, which suggests that approximately 31% of the 1000 realizations can be profitable. If government carbon-tax credits are available, or the oil price goes up or CO 2 capture and operating expenses reduce, more realizations would be profitable.« less

CO 2 Sequestration and Enhanced Oil Recovery at Depleted Oil/Gas Reservoirs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dai, Zhenxue; Viswanathan, Hari; Xiao, Ting

This study presents a quantitative evaluation of the operational and technical risks of an active CO 2-EOR project. A set of risk factor metrics is defined to post-process the Monte Carlo (MC) simulations for statistical analysis. The risk factors are expressed as measurable quantities that can be used to gain insight into project risk (e.g. environmental and economic risks) without the need to generate a rigorous consequence structure, which include (a) CO 2 injection rate, (b) net CO 2 injection rate, (c) cumulative CO 2 storage, (d) cumulative water injection, (e) oil production rate, (f) cumulative oil production, (g) cumulativemore » CH 4 production, and (h) CO 2 breakthrough time. The Morrow reservoir at the Farnsworth Unit (FWU) site, Texas, is used as an example for studying the multi-scale statistical approach for CO 2 accounting and risk analysis. A set of geostatistical-based MC simulations of CO 2-oil/gas-water flow and transport in the Morrow formation are conducted for evaluating the risk metrics. A response-surface-based economic model has been derived to calculate the CO 2-EOR profitability for the FWU site with a current oil price, which suggests that approximately 31% of the 1000 realizations can be profitable. If government carbon-tax credits are available, or the oil price goes up or CO 2 capture and operating expenses reduce, more realizations would be profitable.« less

S-shape relationship between customer satisfaction and willingness to pay premium prices for high quality cured pork products in Spain.

PubMed

Cotes-Torres, Alejandro; Muñoz-Gallego, Pablo A; Cotes-Torres, José Miguel

2012-03-01

This paper explores 2 different probabilistic models explaining willingness to pay premium prices for high-quality cured products from the swine industry. Seven cured pork products (sausage, fuet, ham, loin, shoulder, salami and pepperoni) were studied in 9 food-stores in Valladolid, Spain. Consumers of the products were interviewed (686 completed surveys). It was found by using mixed effect statistical models that the relationship between willingness to pay a premium price and customer satisfaction had nonlinear behavior, following an S-shape with inverted slope which was the first empirical evidence of this type of behavior in meat products in real market conditions. It was also established that the interaction between satisfaction and current expenditure on the product was significant and indispensable for explaining consumers' willingness to pay premium price for cured pork products. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The role of storage dynamics in annual wheat prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schewe, Jacob; Otto, Christian; Frieler, Katja

2017-05-01

Identifying the drivers of global crop price fluctuations is essential for estimating the risks of unexpected weather-induced production shortfalls and for designing optimal response measures. Here we show that with a consistent representation of storage dynamics, a simple supply-demand model can explain most of the observed variations in wheat prices over the last 40 yr solely based on time series of annual production and long term demand trends. Even the most recent price peaks in 2007/08 and 2010/11 can be explained by additionally accounting for documented changes in countries’ trade policies and storage strategies, without the need for external drivers such as oil prices or speculation across different commodity or stock markets. This underlines the critical sensitivity of global prices to fluctuations in production. The consistent inclusion of storage into a dynamic supply-demand model closes an important gap when it comes to exploring potential responses to future crop yield variability under climate and land-use change.

A quantum mechanical model for the relationship between stock price and stock ownership

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cotfas, Liviu-Adrian

2012-11-01

The trade of a fixed stock can be regarded as the basic process that measures its momentary price. The stock price is exactly known only at the time of sale when the stock is between traders, that is, only in the case when the owner is unknown. We show that the stock price can be better described by a function indicating at any moment of time the probabilities for the possible values of price if a transaction takes place. This more general description contains partial information on the stock price, but it also contains partial information on the stock owner.more » By following the analogy with quantum mechanics, we assume that the time evolution of the function describing the stock price can be described by a Schroedinger type equation.« less

State-specific liquor excise taxes and retail prices in 8 US states, 2012.

PubMed

Siegel, Michael; Grundman, Jody; DeJong, William; Naimi, Timothy S; King, Charles; Albers, Alison B; Williams, Rebecca S; Jernigan, David H

2013-01-01

The authors investigated the relationship between state excise taxes and liquor prices in 8 states, using 2012 data for 45 brands. The authors made 6042 price observations among 177 liquor stores with online prices. Using a hierarchical model, the authors examined the relationship between excise taxes and product prices. State excise taxes were significantly related to liquor prices, with an estimated pass-through rate of 0.93. The proportion of price accounted for by excise taxes averaged 7.0%. The authors find that excise taxes do increase the price of alcohol, but states are not taking advantage of this opportunity to reduce alcohol-related morbidity and mortality.

Reduced Need of Lubricity Additives in Soybean Oil Blends Under Boundary Lubrication Conditions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Converging prices of vegetable oils and petroleum, along with increased focus on renewable resources, gave more momentum to vegetable oil lubricants. Boundary lubrication properties of four Extreme Pressure (EP) additive blends in conventional Soy Bean Oil (SBO) and Paraffinic Mineral Oil (PMO) of ...

Modelling world gold prices and USD foreign exchange relationship using multivariate GARCH model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ping, Pung Yean; Ahmad, Maizah Hura Binti

2014-12-01

World gold price is a popular investment commodity. The series have often been modeled using univariate models. The objective of this paper is to show that there is a co-movement between gold price and USD foreign exchange rate. Using the effect of the USD foreign exchange rate on the gold price, a model that can be used to forecast future gold prices is developed. For this purpose, the current paper proposes a multivariate GARCH (Bivariate GARCH) model. Using daily prices of both series from 01.01.2000 to 05.05.2014, a causal relation between the two series understudied are found and a bivariate GARCH model is produced.

Recovery rates, enhanced oil recovery and technological limits

PubMed Central

Muggeridge, Ann; Cockin, Andrew; Webb, Kevin; Frampton, Harry; Collins, Ian; Moulds, Tim; Salino, Peter

2014-01-01

Enhanced oil recovery (EOR) techniques can significantly extend global oil reserves once oil prices are high enough to make these techniques economic. Given a broad consensus that we have entered a period of supply constraints, operators can at last plan on the assumption that the oil price is likely to remain relatively high. This, coupled with the realization that new giant fields are becoming increasingly difficult to find, is creating the conditions for extensive deployment of EOR. This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the nature, status and prospects for EOR technologies. It explains why the average oil recovery factor worldwide is only between 20% and 40%, describes the factors that contribute to these low recoveries and indicates which of those factors EOR techniques can affect. The paper then summarizes the breadth of EOR processes, the history of their application and their current status. It introduces two new EOR technologies that are beginning to be deployed and which look set to enter mainstream application. Examples of existing EOR projects in the mature oil province of the North Sea are discussed. It concludes by summarizing the future opportunities for the development and deployment of EOR. PMID:24298076

Recovery rates, enhanced oil recovery and technological limits.

PubMed

Muggeridge, Ann; Cockin, Andrew; Webb, Kevin; Frampton, Harry; Collins, Ian; Moulds, Tim; Salino, Peter

2014-01-13

Enhanced oil recovery (EOR) techniques can significantly extend global oil reserves once oil prices are high enough to make these techniques economic. Given a broad consensus that we have entered a period of supply constraints, operators can at last plan on the assumption that the oil price is likely to remain relatively high. This, coupled with the realization that new giant fields are becoming increasingly difficult to find, is creating the conditions for extensive deployment of EOR. This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the nature, status and prospects for EOR technologies. It explains why the average oil recovery factor worldwide is only between 20% and 40%, describes the factors that contribute to these low recoveries and indicates which of those factors EOR techniques can affect. The paper then summarizes the breadth of EOR processes, the history of their application and their current status. It introduces two new EOR technologies that are beginning to be deployed and which look set to enter mainstream application. Examples of existing EOR projects in the mature oil province of the North Sea are discussed. It concludes by summarizing the future opportunities for the development and deployment of EOR.

The Resource Relationship: The Institutional Legacies of Oil in Venezuela

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bridgewater, Elliot

This thesis problematizes the concept of the 'Resource Curse', addressing the arguments of several theorists that resource dependence results in state monopolization of natural resource production, and causes poor development outcomes in resource dependent states. A single case study of the Venezuelan experience is used in order to take a longer-run historical approach that considers economic and political determinants of oil-dependent development starting with the impressive growth and emerging democracy of the post war period, economic stagnation of the 1980's and 1990's, and the divisive contemporary era of 'Chavismo'. To deconstruct the thesis that oil and development do not mix, each chapter explores the dynamic connections between the fiscal structure of the Venezuelan state, institutionalized patterns of political conflict and compromise, and their socio-economic consequences. It is argued that such a multi-faceted approach moves beyond static interpretations of the resource curse to grasp more firmly the ever-changing resource relationship.

Natural gas-the missing link in the pricing chain can develop a life of its own

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Symonds, E.

When deputy treasury secretary R.T. McNamar addressed the May meeting of the National Foreign Trade Council in New York, he assured the assembled oilmen and bankers that further cuts of up to 20% should be expected in world oil prices. The puzzling feature is that the gas prices, which were for so long accused of undermining the oil market, are no longer brought into these discussions. Yet gas is the primary fuel over which governments have traditionally exercised the greatest control, and whose future movements must influence long-term world price levels as well as the near-term market for directly competitivemore » products such as heating and residual oils. On the domestic front, the latest of the gas industry's battle lines have been drawn around the long-lasting distortions of the 1954 ruling that the Federal Power Commission was obligated to devise and enforce as a method of controlling wellhead prices. As intended, gas then entered a long period of interstate sales below equilibrium prices, allowing it to capture one-third of the nation's energy market. But that share has now shrunk to approximately one-quarter of the market. This continuous decline was built into forecaster thinking during the long years of underpriced gas. The general assumption was that the decline in domestic supplies would be unbroken, and that prices would not be high enough to attract significant new supplies of supplemental gas. How far this assumption could be upset by decontrol remains an open question.« less

Fish Is Food - The FAO’s Fish Price Index

PubMed Central

Tveterås, Sigbjørn; Asche, Frank; Bellemare, Marc F.; Smith, Martin D.; Guttormsen, Atle G.; Lem, Audun; Lien, Kristin; Vannuccini, Stefania

2012-01-01

World food prices hit an all-time high in February 2011 and are still almost two and a half times those of 2000. Although three billion people worldwide use seafood as a key source of animal protein, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations–which compiles prices for other major food categories–has not tracked seafood prices. We fill this gap by developing an index of global seafood prices that can help to understand food crises and may assist in averting them. The fish price index (FPI) relies on trade statistics because seafood is heavily traded internationally, exposing non-traded seafood to price competition from imports and exports. Easily updated trade data can thus proxy for domestic seafood prices that are difficult to observe in many regions and costly to update with global coverage. Calculations of the extent of price competition in different countries support the plausibility of reliance on trade data. Overall, the FPI shows less volatility and fewer price spikes than other food price indices including oils, cereals, and dairy. The FPI generally reflects seafood scarcity, but it can also be separated into indices by production technology, fish species, or region. Splitting FPI into capture fisheries and aquaculture suggests increased scarcity of capture fishery resources in recent years, but also growth in aquaculture that is keeping pace with demand. Regionally, seafood price volatility varies, and some prices are negatively correlated. These patterns hint that regional supply shocks are consequential for seafood prices in spite of the high degree of seafood tradability. PMID:22590598

Relationship Between Soil and Essential Oil Profiles in Salvia desoleana Populations: Preliminary Results.

PubMed

Rapposelli, Emma; Melito, Sara; Barmina, Giovanni Gabriele; Foddai, Marzia; Azara, Emanuela; Scarpa, Grazia Maria

2015-09-01

Salvia desoleana is a herbaceous perennial shrub endemic of Sardinia (Italy). The leaves are a source of essential oil, used in pharmaceutical and cosmetic industries. The therapeutic function of this species has been associated to the presence of essential oils rich in α/β-pinene, p-cimene, linalool, linalyl acetate and 1,8-cineole. Today.the industrial request of Salvia essential oils is increasing and most of the biomass is exploited from the natural populations which are under severe risk of genetic erosion. In order to improve the essential oil production, the study of the environmental parameters that influence composition, quality and quantity of the essential oils, turns out to be necessary. Soil physical and chemical structure represents one of the determinant factors in secondary metabolites production, and could also be involved in volatiles fraction composition in the same species. The main aim of this research was to explore the relationship between essential oil profiles and soil characteristics in S. desoleana populations. GC/MS analysis performed on the essential oil extracts identified 22 principal compounds, which were extremely variable among the five S. desoleana populations studied. The analysis of the essential oils revealed different compositions in the terpenes fractions: 68.2% of monoterpenes, 27.3% of sesquiterpenes and 4.5% of diterpenes. Analysis of chemical and physical soil parameters at the collection sites revealed that silt and sand contents were correlated with α-pinene and sclareol fractions and the total K20 was significantly correlated to several compounds belonging to the three terpene fractions identified. These results will provide guidelines for the in site conservation and for the improvement of the commercial value of the species.

Number 2 heating oil/propane program. Final report, 1991/92

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McBrien, J.

1992-06-01

During the 1991--92 heating season, the Massachusetts Division of Energy Resources (DOER) participated in a joint data collection program between several state energy offices and the federal Department of Energy`s (DOE) Energy Information Administration (EIA). The purpose of the program was to collect and monitor retail and wholesale heating oil and propane prices and inventories from October, 1991 through March, 1992. This final report begins with an overview of the unique events which had an impact on the reporting period. Next, the report summarizes the results from the residential heating oil and propane price surveys conducted by DOER over themore » 1991--1992 heating season. The report also incorporates the wholesale heating oil and propane prices and inventories collected by the EIA and distributed to the states. Finally, the report outlines DOER`s use of the data and responses to the events which unfolded during the 1991--1992 heating season.« less

48 CFR 538.272 - MAS price reductions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... maintain during the contract period the negotiated price/discount relationship (and/or term and condition relationship) between the eligible ordering activities and the offeror's customer or category of customers on... customers) that results in a less advantageous relationship between the eligible ordering activities and...

Development of karanja oil based offset printing ink in comparison with linseed oil.

PubMed

Bhattacharjee, Moumita; Roy, Ananda Sankar; Ghosh, Santinath; Dey, Munmun

2011-01-01

The conventional offset lithographic printing ink is mainly based on linseed oil. But in recent years, due to stiff competition from synthetic substitutes mainly from petroleum products, the crop production shrinks down to an unsustainable level, which increases the price of linseed oil. Though soyabean oil has replaced a major portion of linseed oil, it is also necessary to develop alternate cost effective vegetable oils for printing ink industry. The present study aims to evaluate the performance of karanja oil (Pongamia glabra) as an alternative of linseed oil in the formulation of offset printing ink because karanja oil is easily available in rural India. Physical properties of raw karanja oil are measured and compared with that of alkali refined linseed oil. Rosin modified phenolic resin based varnishes were made with linseed oil as well as with karanja oil and their properties are compared. Sheetfed offset inks of process colour yellow and cyan is chosen to evaluate the effect of karanja oil in ink properties. In conclusion, karanja oil can be accepted as an alternate vegetable oil source with its noticeable effect on print and post print properties with slower drying time on paper. However, the colour and odour of the oil will restrict its usage on offset inks.

25. anniversary of the 1973 oil embargo: Energy trends since the first major U.S. energy crisis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

The purpose of this publication is not to assess the causes of the 1973 energy crisis or the measures that were adopted to resolve it. The intent is to present some data on which such analyses can be based. Many of the trends presented here fall into two distinct periods. From 1973 to the mid-1980`s, prices continued at very high levels, in part because of a second oil shock in 1979--80. During this period, rapid progress was made in raising American oil production, reducing dependence on oil imports, and improving end-use efficiency. After the oil price collapse of the mid-1980`s,more » however, prices retreated to more moderate levels, the pace of efficiency gains slowed, American oil production fell, and the share of imports rose. 30 figs.« less

Pricing structures in US coal supply contracts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kacker, Kanishka

The subject of my dissertation is the study of coal procurement by electric utilities in the US over 2 decades, from 1979 to 2000. Energy markets are typically characterized by severe contracting problems. Buyers and sellers therefore employ various instruments, such as contract length or complex pricing arrangements, to restrict these problems. Relationship specific investment, wherein buyers make investments specific to their suppliers, has been advanced as a prominent explanation for contractual length. Investment decisions are however endogenous in length or pricing, making causal identification of the role of investment specificity difficult. In my first chapter, I attempt a resolution. I use the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendment as an exogenous shifter of the extent of relationship specific investment. A key feature of the Amendment's design helps me define a difference-in-difference model arguably free of the endogeneity issues discussed above. I find that the plants forced into switching - Phase I plants located in the US Midwest - are more likely to choose fixed price contracts than those that were not. Further they also write contracts of shorter terms, with the reduction being approximately 30%. Considerably little is known about the performance implications of contractual choices. These form the basis for Chapter 2. Here I find prices to be lower, by between 5% to 20% of the total transaction price, but the probability of renegotiation higher, under fixed price contracts than under escalator or cost-plus contracts. Contract choices appear consistent with a trade-off between establishing incentives ex-ante and lowering negotiation costs ex-post, with relationship specific investments in particular making such a trade-off compelling. Chapter 3 considers the regulatory environment these utilities were subject to. Both incentive based regulation as well as the restructuring of electricity generation are smaller in comparison to relationship specific investment

Washington's energy mess: after ten years of Federal meddling in the oil business, we're over a barrel

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sawyer, J.

1980-09-01

New regulations in response to a 1970 call for decontrolling the petroleum industry encouraged foreign production and imports while discouraging domestic exploration. The oil industry was strong enough to profit from government programs, but not enough to prevent pervasive interference in its operations and investments. The result has been supply disruptions and more dependence on foreign oil. The price control system operating during the 1970s had no provision for inflation and was biased toward refineries having access to domestic crude oil. This led to an entitlements program that modified competition further. A review of these and other programs, such asmore » the mandatory crude-oil buy/sell program, shows how they altered the relationships between suppliers and buyers. The 1980 Windfall Profit Tax continues a decade of favoring foreign production, reflecting public aversion to true decontrol, and a public addiction to Federal intervention. (DCK)« less

Impacts of the Venezuelan Crude Oil Production Loss

EIA Publications

2003-01-01

This assessment of the Venezuelan petroleum loss examines two areas. The first part of the analysis focuses on the impact of the loss of Venezuelan crude production on crude oil supply for U.S. refiners who normally run a significant fraction of Venezuelan crude oil. The second part of the analysis looks at the impact of the Venezuelan production loss on crude markets in general, with particular emphasis on crude oil imports, refinery crude oil throughput levels, stock levels, and the changes in price differences between light and heavy crude oils.

Retail price as an outcome measure for the effectiveness of drug law enforcement.

PubMed

Bright, David A; Ritter, Alison

2010-09-01

One outcome measure of law enforcement effectiveness is the reduction in drug consumption which occurs as a result of law enforcement interventions. A theoretical relationship between drug consumption and retail price has promoted the use of retail price as a surrogate measure for consumption. In the current article, retail price is examined as a potential outcome measure for the effectiveness of law enforcement. The predictions regarding the relationship between law enforcement intensity and price are only partially supported by research. Explanations for the disconnect between the drug law enforcement activity and retail price include: rapid adaptation by market players, enforcement swamping, assumptions of rational actors, short-run versus long-run effects, structure of the illicit market, simultaneous changes that affect price in perverse ways, the role of violence in markets, and data limitations. Researchers who use retail price as an outcome measure need to take into account the complex relationship between drug law enforcement interventions and the retail price of illicit drugs. Viable outcome measures which can be used as complements to retail price are worth investigation. Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The transmission of fluctuation among price indices based on Granger causality network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Qingru; Gao, Xiangyun; Wen, Shaobo; Chen, Zhihua; Hao, Xiaoqing

2018-09-01

In this paper, we provide a method of statistical physics to analyze the fluctuation of transmission by constructing Granger causality network among price indices (PIGCN) from a systematical perspective, using complex network theory combined with Granger causality method. In economic system, there are numerous price indices, of which the relationships are extreme complicated. Thus, time series data of 6 types of price indices of China, including 113 kinds of sub price indices, are selected as example of empirical study. Through the analysis of the structure of PIGCN, we identify important price indices with high transmission range, high intermediation capacity, high cohesion and the fluctuation transmission path of price indices, respectively. Furthermore, dynamic relationships among price indices are revealed. Based on these results, we provide several policy implications for monitoring the diffusion of risk of price fluctuation. Our method can also be used to study the price indices of other countries, which is generally applicable.

State-Specific Liquor Excise Taxes and Retail Prices in Eight U.S. States, 2012

PubMed Central

Siegel, Michael; Grundman, Jody; DeJong, William; Naimi, Timothy S.; King, Charles; Albers, Alison B.; Williams, Rebecca S.; Jernigan, David H.

2013-01-01

We investigated the relationship between state excise taxes and liquor prices in eight states, using 2012 data for 45 brands. We made 6,042 price observations among 177 liquor stores with online prices. Using a hierarchical model, we examined the relationship between excise taxes and product prices. State excise taxes were significantly related to liquor prices, with an estimated pass-through rate of 0.93. The proportion of price accounted for by excise taxes averaged 7.0%. We find that excise taxes do increase the price of alcohol, but states are not taking advantage of this opportunity to reduce alcohol-related morbidity and mortality. PMID:24159914

How market structure drives commodity prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Bin; Wong, K. Y. Michael; Chan, Amos H. M.; So, Tsz Yan; Heimonen, Hermanni; Wei, Junyi; Saad, David

2017-11-01

We introduce an agent-based model, in which agents set their prices to maximize profit. At steady state the market self-organizes into three groups: excess producers, consumers and balanced agents, with prices determined by their own resource level and a couple of macroscopic parameters that emerge naturally from the analysis, akin to mean-field parameters in statistical mechanics. When resources are scarce prices rise sharply below a turning point that marks the disappearance of excess producers. To compare the model with real empirical data, we study the relationship between commodity prices and stock-to-use ratios in a range of commodities such as agricultural products and metals. By introducing an elasticity parameter to mitigate noise and long-term changes in commodities data, we confirm the trend of rising prices, provide evidence for turning points, and indicate yield points for less essential commodities.

A method of the up or down layer development of class II oil reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Fulin; Zhao, Yunfei; Fang, Yanjun; Yang, Tao; Gui, Dongxu; Wang, Gang; Feng, Chengcheng

2018-06-01

During the 13th five-year period, class II reservoirs of DaQing Oilfield first layer series development will be fully completed, secondary up or down layer development is facing new well drilling or the use of old we ll pattern network method chosen, need to determine development mode of oil block. In this paper, the system economy model is established, the up and down oil layer of the block is considered as one system, and through the comparison of the two models that new well drilling or the use of old well pattern, we can determine the development mode of the block. And take b1ddd block as an example, determine the block need to use what method to develop in different oil prices. Result show when the oil price is 40/bbl, using exiting well to production, when oil price is 70/bbl., using new drilling development model. The method to fill the theory and methodology on selection about reservoir development mode, can provide technical support for DaQing Oilfield the 14th five-year planning and long-term planning.

Oil palm for biodiesel in Brazil—risks and opportunities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Englund, Oskar; Berndes, Göran; Persson, U. Martin; Sparovek, Gerd

2015-04-01

Although mainly used for other purposes, and historically mainly established at the expense of tropical forests, oil palm can be the most land efficient feedstock for biodiesel. Large parts of Brazil are suitable for oil palm cultivation and a series of policy initiatives have recently been launched to promote oil palm production. These initiatives are however highly debated both in the parliament and in academia. Here we present results of a high resolution modelling study of opportunities and risks associated with oil palm production for biodiesel in Brazil, under different energy, policy, and infrastructure scenarios. Oil palm was found to be profitable on extensive areas, including areas under native vegetation where establishment would cause large land use change (LUC) emissions. However, some 40-60 Mha could support profitable biodiesel production corresponding to approximately 10% of the global diesel demand, without causing direct LUC emissions or impinging on protected areas. Pricing of LUC emissions could make oil palm production unprofitable on most lands where conversion would impact on native ecosystems and carbon stocks, if the carbon price is at the level 125/tC, or higher.

Canada's new national energy program on oil and gas: What are the main provisions? What are the reactions so far?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burr, K. K.

1981-04-01

The Canadian federal government announced a National Energy Program (NEP) for oil and natural gas to achieve energy self sufficiency. The program deals with two major political and economic influences in Canadian energy: provincial ownership of natural resources and 70% of foreign ownership in the Canadian petroleum industry. The objectives to achieve national energy security, create opportunities for Canadian participation, and share resource benefits among the provinces. The major provisions include: a 80% federal tax on oil and gas production; a natural gas federal excise tax; a pricing scheme which holds conventional oil prices down but gives incentives for oil sands, heavy oil, and tertiary recovery production; a gas pricing scheme which encourages substitution of gas for oil; a 25% carried interest for the government on federal leases; and a Canadianization incentives grant system which replace the depletion allowance system.

7 CFR 1000.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing... advanced pricing factors. Class prices per hundredweight of milk containing 3.5 percent butterfat, component prices, and advanced pricing factors shall be as follows. The prices and pricing factors described...

The relationship of crime and oil development in the coastal regions of Louisiana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luthra, Asha D.

This project examines the relationship between patterns of crime and the development of the oil and gas extraction industry in the coastal regions of Louisiana. The suggestion of a link between these phenomena has often been made, but little systematic research has been conducted to determine if there is indeed a crime-oil development nexus. Limited previous research has focused primarily on the issue of "boom and bust" cycles on some forms of deviant behavior, but the data and the methods used were inadequate, and thus, the resulting conclusions were often misleading or possibly erroneous. During the course of this project, a comprehensive database is constructed that facilitates a longitudinal analysis of concomitant variation in crime patterns and oil extraction activity. Annual crime data are obtained at the parish and county level for all years beginning in 1974 and merged with corresponding social and economic data. This dataset allows for a multivariate pooled time series analysis, with adequate controls, to determine the degree of influence between oil activity and crime patterns. The results from the analysis suggest that changes in oil activity and high levels of labor market involvement in the offshore oil industry are not strongly associated with community disruption in the form of crime. The only statistically significant effects due to changes in oil activity are decreased levels of homicide and aggravated assault. Oil development is not associated with any other crime in the analysis despite accounting for the boom and bust cycles of the oil industry over a 25 year period for 12 parishes that are highly involved in the industry. As the industry becomes more active and undergoes an increased labor demand, incidents of homicide and assault decline in the community. This finding does not support some previous boomtown model research that argues that energy development causes higher rates of social disruption, including higher crime rates (Seydlitz et al

Pricing and the psychology of consumption.

PubMed

Gourville, John; Soman, Dilip

2002-09-01

Most executives know how pricing influences the demand for a product, but few of them realize how it affects the consumption of a product. In fact, most companies don't even believe they can have an effect on whether customers use products they have already paid for. In this article, the authors argue that the relationship between pricing and consumption lies at the core of customer strategy. The extent to which a customer uses a product during a certain time period often determines whether he or she will buy the product again. So pricing tactics that encourage people to use the products they've paid for help companies build long-term relationships with customers. The link between pricing and consumption is clear: People are more likely to consume a product when they are aware of its cost. But for many executives, the idea that they should draw consumers' attention to the price that was paid for a product or service is counterintuitive. Companies have long sought to mask the costs of their goods and services in order to boost sales. And rightly so--if a company fails to make the initial sale, it won't have to worry about consumption. So to promote sales, health club managers encourage members to get the payment out of the way early; HMOs encourage automatic payroll deductions; and cruise lines bundle small, specific costs into a single, all-inclusive fee. The problem is, by masking how much a buyer has spent on a given product, these pricing tactics decrease the likelihood that the buyer will actually use it. This article offers some new approaches to pricing--how and when to charge for goods and services--that may boost consumption.

10 CFR 626.6 - Acquiring oil by direct purchase.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

..., DOE may increase the rate of purchases if prices fall below recent price trends or futures markets... accordance with the FAR and the DEAR. (b) Acquisition strategy. (1) DOE solicitations: (i) May be either... availability of ships, pipelines and terminals to move and receive the oil. (3) Based on the market analysis...

Do payers value rarity? An analysis of the relationship between disease rarity and orphan drug prices in Europe.

PubMed

Medic, Goran; Korchagina, Daria; Young, Katherine Eve; Toumi, Mondher; Postma, Maarten Jacobus; Wille, Micheline; Hemels, Michiel

2017-01-01

Background and Objective : Orphan drugs have been a highlight of discussions due to their higher prices than non-orphan drugs. There is currently no European consensus on the method of value assessment for orphan drugs. This study assessed the relationship between the prevalence of rare diseases and the annual treatment cost of orphan drugs in France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Spain, Sweden, and UK. Methods : Approved orphan drugs and prevalence data were extracted from the European Medicines Agency website. Annual treatment costs were calculated using ex-factory price. Simple regression was used to analyse the relationship between costs and prevalence. A specific bivariate analysis was performed for the rarest diseases (≤1 per 10,000). Results : 120 drugs were analysed. Prevalence ranged from 0.001 to 5 per 10,000 (mean 1.24, median 1). Annual treatment costs per patient ranged from €755 to €1,051,956 (mean €100,000, median €39,303). Results show a statistically significant inverse correlation between annual treatment cost and disease prevalence in all countries (France: r = -0.370, p  = 0.002; Germany: r = -0.365, p  = 0.002; Italy: r = -0.340, p  = 0.002; Spain: r = -0.316, p  = 0.041; UK: r = -0.358, p  = 0.0004; Sweden: r = -0.414, p  = 0.014; Norway: r = -0.367, p  = 0.002). When analysis was focused on the rarest diseases, a stronger correlation exists in all countries (France: r = -0.525, Germany: r = -0.482, Italy: r = -0.497, Spain: r = -0.531, UK: r = -0.436, Sweden: r = -0.455, Norway: r = -0.466; all p  < 0.05 except Sweden p  = 0.077). Conclusions : This study shows an inverse correlation between annual treatment cost and prevalence with high statistical significance in the studied countries. Although pricing is a complex process where different attributes are assessed, this study supports the idea that payers value rarity in pricing decisions.

Refinery Outages: Description and Potential Impact on Petroleum Product Prices

EIA Publications

2007-01-01

This report responds to a July 13, 2006 request from Chairman Jeff Bingaman of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources requested that the Energy Information Administration conduct a study of the impact that refinery shutdowns have had on the price of oil and gasoline.

25 CFR 226.12 - Government reserves right to purchase oil.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 25 Indians 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Government reserves right to purchase oil. 226.12 Section... reserves right to purchase oil. Any of the executive departments of the U.S. Government shall have the... price as defined in § 226.11. ...

Relationship between financial speculation and food prices or price volatility: applying the principles of evidence-based medicine to current debates in Germany.

PubMed

Bozorgmehr, Kayvan; Gabrysch, Sabine; Müller, Olaf; Neuhann, Florian; Jordan, Irmgard; Knipper, Michael; Razum, Oliver

2013-10-16

There is an unresolved debate about the potential effects of financial speculation on food prices and price volatility. Germany's largest financial institution and leading global investment bank recently decided to continue investing in agricultural commodities, stating that there is little empirical evidence to support the notion that the growth of agricultural-based financial products has caused price increases or volatility. The statement is supported by a recently published literature review, which concludes that financial speculation does not have an adverse effect on the functioning of the agricultural commodities market. As public health professionals concerned with global food insecurity, we have appraised the methodological quality of the review using a validated and reliable appraisal tool. The appraisal revealed major shortcomings in the methodological quality of the review. These were particularly related to intransparencies in the search strategy and in the selection/presentation of studies and findings; the neglect of the possibility of publication bias; a lack of objective or rigorous criteria for assessing the scientific quality of included studies and for the formulation of conclusions. Based on the results of our appraisal, we conclude that it is not justified to reject the hypothesis that financial speculation might have adverse effects on food prices/price volatility. We hope to initiate reflections about scientific standards beyond the boundaries of disciplines and call for high quality, rigorous systematic reviews on the effects of financial speculation on food prices or price volatility.

Aspects of Hess' Acquisition of American Oil & Gas

EIA Publications

2010-01-01

On July 27, 2010, Hess Corporation announced that it had agreed to acquire American Oil & Gas, Inc. in a stock-only transaction worth as much as $488 million (based on Hess' closing price of $53.30/share, anticipated number of newly issued shares, and $30 million credit facility extended to American Oil & Gas prior to closing).

Evaluating the Relationship between the Population Trends, Prices, Heat Waves, and the Demands of Energy Consumption in Cities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fu, Katherine; Allen, Melissa; Archibald, Richard

The demands of energy consumption have been projected as a key factor that affects an economy at the city, national, and international level. Contributions to total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2012 by various urban sectors include electricity (31%), transportation (28%), industry (20%), agriculture (10%), and commercial and residential (10%). Moreover, the heavy demands of energy consumption in the cities by residents, commercial businesses, industries, and transportation are important for maintaining and sustaining sufficient economic growth. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationships between population trends, historical energy consumptions, the changes of average electricity price, average annualmore » temperature, and extreme weather events for three selected cities: New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles. These cities are exemplary of, metropolitan areas in the East, Middle, and the Western regions of the U.S. Here, we find that the total energy consumptions of New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles are influenced to various degrees by changes in population, temperature and the average price of electricity and that only one city, Los Angeles, does price significantly affect electricity use. Our finding has implications for policy making, suggesting that each city s climate, size and general economic priorities must be considered in developing climate change mitigation strategies and incentives.« less

Evaluating the Relationship between the Population Trends, Prices, Heat Waves, and the Demands of Energy Consumption in Cities

DOE PAGES

Fu, Katherine; Allen, Melissa; Archibald, Richard

2015-11-18

The demands of energy consumption have been projected as a key factor that affects an economy at the city, national, and international level. Contributions to total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2012 by various urban sectors include electricity (31%), transportation (28%), industry (20%), agriculture (10%), and commercial and residential (10%). Moreover, the heavy demands of energy consumption in the cities by residents, commercial businesses, industries, and transportation are important for maintaining and sustaining sufficient economic growth. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationships between population trends, historical energy consumptions, the changes of average electricity price, average annualmore » temperature, and extreme weather events for three selected cities: New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles. These cities are exemplary of, metropolitan areas in the East, Middle, and the Western regions of the U.S. Here, we find that the total energy consumptions of New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles are influenced to various degrees by changes in population, temperature and the average price of electricity and that only one city, Los Angeles, does price significantly affect electricity use. Our finding has implications for policy making, suggesting that each city s climate, size and general economic priorities must be considered in developing climate change mitigation strategies and incentives.« less

Does the OVX matter for volatility forecasting? Evidence from the crude oil market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lv, Wendai

2018-02-01

In this paper, I investigate that whether the OVX and its truncated parts with a certain threshold can significantly help in forecasting the oil futures price volatility basing on the Heterogeneous Autoregressive model of Realized Volatility (HAR-RV). In-sample estimation results show that the OVX has a significantly positive impact on futures volatility. The impact of large OVX on future volatility has slightly powerful compared to the small ones. Moreover, the HARQ-RV model outperforms the HAR-RV in predicting the oil futures volatility. More importantly, the decomposed OVX have more powerful in forecasting the oil futures price volatility compared to the OVX itself.

Testing the weak-form efficiency of the WTI crude oil futures market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Xie, Wen-Jie; Zhou, Wei-Xing

2014-07-01

The weak-form efficiency of energy futures markets has long been studied and empirical evidence suggests controversial conclusions. In this work, nonparametric methods are adopted to estimate the Hurst indexes of the WTI crude oil futures prices (1983-2012) and a strict statistical test in the spirit of bootstrapping is put forward to verify the weak-form market efficiency hypothesis. The results show that the crude oil futures market is efficient when the whole period is considered. When the whole series is divided into three sub-series separated by the outbreaks of the Gulf War and the Iraq War, it is found that the Gulf War reduced the efficiency of the market. If the sample is split into two sub-series based on the signing date of the North American Free Trade Agreement, the market is found to be inefficient in the sub-periods during which the Gulf War broke out. The same analysis on short-time series in moving windows shows that the market is inefficient only when some turbulent events occur, such as the oil price crash in 1985, the Gulf war, and the oil price crash in 2008.

The 2006-2008 oil bubble: Evidence of speculation, and prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sornette, Didier; Woodard, Ryan; Zhou, Wei-Xing

2009-04-01

We present an analysis of oil prices in USD and in other major currencies that diagnoses unsustainable faster-than-exponential behavior. This supports the hypothesis that the recent oil price run-up was amplified by speculative behavior of the type found during a bubble-like expansion. We also attempt to unravel the information hidden in the oil supply-demand data reported by two leading agencies, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA). We suggest that the found increasing discrepancy between the EIA and IEA figures provides a measure of the estimation errors. Rather than a clear transition to a supply restricted regime, we interpret the discrepancy between the IEA and EIA as a signature of uncertainty, and there is no better fuel than uncertainty to promote speculation! Our post-crash analysis confirms that the oil peak in July 2008 occurred within the expected 80% confidence interval predicted with data available in our pre-crash analysis.

Essays on carbon policy and enhanced oil recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, Benjamin R.

The growing concerns about climate change have led policy makers to consider various regulatory schemes designed to reduce the stock and growth of atmospheric CO2 concentrations while at the same time improving energy security. The most prominent proposals are the so called "cap-and-trade" frameworks which set aggregate emission levels for a jurisdiction and then issue or sell a corresponding number of allowances to emitters. Typically, these policy measures will also encourage the deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in geological formations and mature oil fields through subsidies or other incentives. The ability to store CO 2 in mature oil fields through the deployment of CO2 enhanced oil recovery (CO2--EOR) is particularly attractive as it can simultaneously improve oil recovery at those fields, and serve as a possible financial bridge to the development of CO2 transportation infrastructure. The purpose of this research is to explore the impact that a tandem subsidy-tax policy regime may have on bargaining between emitters and sequestration providers, and also to identify oil units in Wyoming that can profitably undertake CO 2--EOR as a starting point for the build-out of CO2 pipelines. In the first essay an economics lab experiment is designed to simulate private bargaining between carbon emitters (such as power plants) and carbon sequestration sites when the emitter faces carbon taxes, sequestration subsidies or both. In a tax-subsidy policy regime the carbon tax (or purchased allowances) can be avoided by sequestering the carbon, and in some cases the emitter can also earn a subsidy to help pay for the sequestration. The main policy implications of the experiment results are that the sequestration market might be inefficient, and sequestration providers seem to have bargaining power sufficient to command high prices. This may lead to the integration of CO2 sources and sequestration sites, and reduced prices for the injectable CO2 purchased by oil

Study on Energy Productivity Ratio (EPR) at palm kernel oil processing factory: case study on PT-X at Sumatera Utara Plantation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haryanto, B.; Bukit, R. Br; Situmeang, E. M.; Christina, E. P.; Pandiangan, F.

2018-02-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the performance, productivity and feasibility of the operation of palm kernel processing plant based on Energy Productivity Ratio (EPR). EPR is expressed as the ratio of output to input energy and by-product. Palm Kernel plan is process in palm kernel to become palm kernel oil. The procedure started from collecting data needed as energy input such as: palm kernel prices, energy demand and depreciation of the factory. The energy output and its by-product comprise the whole production price such as: palm kernel oil price and the remaining products such as shells and pulp price. Calculation the equality of energy of palm kernel oil is to analyze the value of Energy Productivity Ratio (EPR) bases on processing capacity per year. The investigation has been done in Kernel Oil Processing Plant PT-X at Sumatera Utara plantation. The value of EPR was 1.54 (EPR > 1), which indicated that the processing of palm kernel into palm kernel oil is feasible to be operated based on the energy productivity.

Palm oil taxes and cardiovascular disease mortality in India: economic-epidemiologic model.

PubMed

Basu, Sanjay; Babiarz, Kim S; Ebrahim, Shah; Vellakkal, Sukumar; Stuckler, David; Goldhaber-Fiebert, Jeremy D

2013-10-22

To examine the potential effect of a tax on palm oil on hyperlipidemia and on mortality due to cardiovascular disease in India. Economic-epidemiologic model. A microsimulation model of mortality due to myocardial infarction and stroke among Indian populations was constructed, incorporating nationally representative data on systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, tobacco smoking, diabetes, and cardiovascular event history, and stratified by age, sex, and urban/rural residence. Household expenditure data were used to estimate the change in consumption of palm oil following changes in oil price and the potential substitution of alternative oils that might occur after imposition of a tax. A 20% excise tax on palm oil purchases was simulated over the period 2014-23. The model was used to project future mortality due to myocardial infarction and stroke, as well as the potential effect of a tax on food insecurity, accounting for the effect of increased food prices. A 20% tax on palm oil purchases would be expected to avert approximately 363,000 (95% confidence interval 247,000 to 479,000) deaths from myocardial infarctions and strokes over the period 2014-23 in India (1.3% reduction in cardiovascular deaths) if people do not substitute other oils for reduced palm oil consumption. Given estimates of substitution of palm oil with other oils following a 20% price increase for palm oil, the beneficial effects of increased polyunsaturated fat consumption would be expected to enhance the projected reduction in deaths to as much as 421,000 (256,000 to 586,000). The tax would be expected to benefit men more than women and urban populations more than rural populations, given differential consumption and cardiovascular risk. In a scenario incorporating the effect of taxation on overall food expenditures, the tax may increase food insecurity by <1%, resulting in 16,000 (95% confidence interval 12,000 to 22,000) deaths. Curtailing palm oil intake through taxation may modestly

Fuel oil and kerosene sales, 1989

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1991-01-22

Despite the rise in petroleum products prices, a colder-than-normal winter in the latter part of 1989 spurred an increase in demand for distillate fuel oils. The shipping and electric utilities industries contributed to a significant rise in demand for both distillate and residual fuels oils in 1989. A total of 72.9 billion gallons of fuel oil and kerosene were sold to consumers in 1989, an increase of 3.0 percent over 1988 sales volumes. Of all fuel oil sold during 1989, distillate fuel oil accounted for 68.3 percent, which was an increase over 1988 when distillate fuel oil accounted for 67.2more » percent of all fuel oil products sold in the United States. Residual fuel oil's share of total fuel oil sold fell slightly to 29.9 percent from 30.7 percent in 1988. Kerosene followed with a 1.8 percent share, also falling from the previous year when it accounted for a 2.1 percent share of total fuel oil sold. 3 figs., 24 tabs.« less

Economics of on-farm production and use of vegetable oils for fuel

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McIntosh, C.S.; Withers, R.V.; Smith, S.M.

1982-01-01

The technology of oilseed processing, on a small scale, is much simpler than that for ethanol production. This, coupled with the fact that most energy intensive farm operations use diesel powered equipment, has created substantial interest in vegetable oils as an alternative source of liquid fuel for agriculture. The purpose of this study was to estimate the impact on gross margins resulting from vegetable oil production and utilization in two case study areas, Latah and Power Counties, in Iadho. The results indicate that winter rape oil became a feasible alternative to diesel when the price of diesel reached $0.84 permore » liter in the Latah County model. A diesel price of $0.85 per liter was required in the Power County model before it became feasible to produce sunflower oil for fuel. 5 tables.« less

Pricing and performance in health maintenance organizations: a strategic management perspective.

PubMed

Conant, J S; Mokwa, M P; Burnett, J J

1989-03-01

Innovative, consumer-oriented pricing strategies have contributed to the impressive growth of health maintenance organizations (HMOs). In a national study of HMO marketing directors, the relationships between strategic management style and (1) the relative importance of pricing in competitive marketing strategy, (2) the effectiveness of price strategy planning, and (3) financial performance are examined. The findings indicate that HMOs practicing effective price planning also perform well on an overall basis. Insight into the content and substance of HMO pricing strategies is also provided.

Development of taxation system for oil production companies in Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salmina, S. V.; Sboeva, I. M.; Selivanovskaya, J. I.; Khafizova, A. R.; Fomin, V. P.

2018-01-01

The present article is devoted to the taxation system for oil production companies in Russia. The role of oil production companies in the realization of the fiscal function of the state is shown. Tax and due receipts at the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation from major economic sectors in the years 2013-2015 are presented and analysed. An investigation of oil production taxation peculiarities is carried out. In particular, mineral extraction tax analysis is made, the said tax being one of the basic taxes paid by oil production companies. The authors come to a conclusion that mineral extraction tax in Russia needs reforming. Based on the investigation realized possible ways of taxation system development in respect of oil production companies in Russia are proposed. Thus, taking into account the fact that oil industry is very important for budget revenue formation, initially it is planned to test the new taxation system principles in a limited number of deposits, so called ‘pilot projects’. For highly profitable minefield deposits it is planned to introduce progressive and regressive index, varying depending on oil prices. Within the framework of the investigation the authors come to a conclusion that it is necessary to introduce gradually the taxation system based on the definition of surplus profit depending on the cost effectiveness and taking into account oil prices.

Heterogeneity and nonlinearity in consumers’ preferences: An application to the olive oil shopping behavior in Chile

PubMed Central

Romo-Muñoz, Rodrigo Alejandro; Cabas-Monje, Juan Hernán; Garrido-Henrríquez, Héctor Manuel

2017-01-01

In relatively unknown products, consumers use prices as a quality reference. Under such circumstances, the utility function can be non-negative for a specific price range and generate an inverted U-shaped function. The extra virgin olive oil market in Chile is a good example. Although domestic production and consumption have increased significantly in the last few years, consumer knowledge of this product is still limited. The objective of this study was to analyze Chilean consumer preferences and willingness to pay for extra virgin olive oil attributes. Consumers were segmented taking into account purchasing frequency. A Random Parameter Logit model was estimated for preference heterogeneity. Results indicate that the utility function is nonlinear allowing us to differentiate between two regimes. In the first regime, olive oil behaves as a conspicuous good, that is, higher utility is assigned to higher prices and consumers prefer foreign products in smaller containers. Under the second regime, Chilean olive oil in larger containers is preferred. PMID:28892516

Heterogeneity and nonlinearity in consumers' preferences: An application to the olive oil shopping behavior in Chile.

PubMed

Romo-Muñoz, Rodrigo Alejandro; Cabas-Monje, Juan Hernán; Garrido-Henrríquez, Héctor Manuel; Gil, José María

2017-01-01

In relatively unknown products, consumers use prices as a quality reference. Under such circumstances, the utility function can be non-negative for a specific price range and generate an inverted U-shaped function. The extra virgin olive oil market in Chile is a good example. Although domestic production and consumption have increased significantly in the last few years, consumer knowledge of this product is still limited. The objective of this study was to analyze Chilean consumer preferences and willingness to pay for extra virgin olive oil attributes. Consumers were segmented taking into account purchasing frequency. A Random Parameter Logit model was estimated for preference heterogeneity. Results indicate that the utility function is nonlinear allowing us to differentiate between two regimes. In the first regime, olive oil behaves as a conspicuous good, that is, higher utility is assigned to higher prices and consumers prefer foreign products in smaller containers. Under the second regime, Chilean olive oil in larger containers is preferred.

Oligomerization of jojoba oil in supercritical C02 for cosmeceutical application

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Growing social importance on issues such as exhaustion of non-renewable resources, high crude oil prices, the environment, and waste disposal, has led to the search for bio-based products from renewable agricultural resources. Vegetable oils are renewable, non-toxic, biodegradable, non-polluting, an...

Oil and the world economy: some possible futures.

PubMed

Kumhof, Michael; Muir, Dirk

2014-01-13

This paper, using a six-region dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the world economy, assesses the output and current account implications of permanent oil supply shocks hitting the world economy. For modest-sized shocks and conventional production technologies, the effects are modest. But for larger shocks, for elasticities of substitution that decline as oil usage is reduced to a minimum, and for production functions in which oil acts as a critical enabler of technologies, output growth could drop significantly. Also, oil prices could become so high that smooth adjustment, as assumed in the model, may become very difficult.

An analysis of macroeconomic fluctuations for a small open oil-based economy: The case of Saudi Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Abdulkarim, Bander B.

The increasing fluctuations in the oil prices through the last decades have been transferred to the oil exporting countries. Thus, many oil exporting countries experienced significant changes in the economic activity due to changes in the oil markets. In light of this, oil exporting countries have attempted to implement a policy that would stabilize the fluctuations in the oil markets recognizing the adverse effects of such behavior on oil exporting countries, as well as oil importing countries. Saudi Arabia, as the largest oil-exporting country and a member of OPEC, takes the role of oil-markets stabilizer by behaving as the swing producer. This role has caused the global economic fluctuations to transfer into the domestic economy. In addition, Saudi Arabian government has adopted a fixed exchange rate currency regime. Although it has contributed to domestic price stabilizations, this policy has also exposed the country to global economic disturbances. The purpose of the study is to empirically investigate these aspects for Saudi Arabia. First, the effects of shocks originated in the international markets on the Saudi Arabian economy. Second, how the fixed exchange rate regimes influences the domestic macroeconomic variables. Third, to what extent the oil sector contributes to the non-oil domestic fluctuations. Finally, how the findings from the study can be explained by economic theory. In pursuing this, there are four economic theories that are considered to explain the causes of business cycles. These theories are Classical Theory, Keynesian Theory, Monetarist Theory, and the Real Business Cycles. In addition, a theoretical model is derived that is suitable for an oil-based economy. The model follows the set up of McCallum and Nelson (1999). Then, the empirical models of Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) and Error Correction Model (ECM) are implemented with three different specifications: Choleski Decomposition, Block Exogeneity and long-run Cointegration

Construction of VLCC marine oil storage cost index system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yuan; Li, Yule; Lu, Jinshu; Wu, Wenfeng; Zhu, Faxin; Chen, Tian; Qin, Beichen

2018-04-01

VLCC as the research object, the basic knowledge of VLCC is summarized. According to the phenomenon that VLCC is applied to offshore oil storage gradually, this paper applies the theoretical analysis method to analyze the excess capacity from VLCC, the drop of oil price, the aging VLCC is more suitable for offshore storage The paper analyzes the reason of VLCC offshore oil storage from three aspects, analyzes the cost of VLCC offshore storage from the aspects of manpower cost and shipping cost, and constructs the cost index system of VLCC offshore oil storage.

The role of the US in the geopolitics of climate policy and stranded oil reserves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaffe, Amy Myers

2016-10-01

Computer-assisted technological innovation and breakthroughs in drilling are revolutionizing the energy landscape, creating greater uncertainty about the future trends for oil use. These new dynamics are prompting major oil producers to reconsider the commercial value of their assets, potentially changing the long-term outlook for oil prices. A shift in investment and production strategy by major oil-producing countries and large multinational companies to pre-empt the risk of stranded assets would have significant implications on energy markets. This Perspective surveys the competitive forces at play that are able to shift the dynamics of the global oil market and discusses their implications for US climate and energy policy. A declining long-term oil price might imply that energy and climate scientists and policymakers should revisit the road map of the optimum policies to promote the transition to lower carbon energy and to defend technology gains already achieved.

Oil Dependence, Climate Change and Energy Security: Will Constraints on Oil Shape our Climate Future or Vice Versa?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mignone, B. K.

2008-12-01

Threats to US and global energy security take several forms. First, the overwhelming dependence on oil in the transport sector leaves the US economy (and others) vulnerable to supply shocks and price volatility. Secondly, the global dependence on oil inflates prices and enhances the transfer of wealth to authoritarian regimes. Finally, the global reliance on fossil fuels more generally jeopardizes the stability of the climate system. These three threats - economic, strategic and environmental - can only be mitigated through a gradual substitution away from fossil fuels (both coal and oil) on a global scale. Such large-scale substitution could occur in response to potential resource constraints or in response to coordinated government policies in which these externalities are explicitly internalized. Here, I make use of a well-known integrated assessment model (MERGE) to examine both possibilities. When resource limits are considered alone, global fuel use tends to shift toward even more carbon-intensive resources, like oil shale or liquids derived from coal. On the other hand, when explicit carbon constraints are imposed, the fuel sector response is more complex. Generally, less stringent climate targets can be satisfied entirely through reductions in global coal consumption, while more stringent targets require simultaneous reductions in both coal and oil consumption. Taken together, these model results suggest that resource constraints alone will only exacerbate the climate problem, while a subset of policy-driven carbon constraints may yield tangible security benefits (in the form of reduced global oil consumption) in addition to the intended environmental outcome.

7 CFR 1030.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1030.50 Section 1030.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued... prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

7 CFR 1124.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1124.50 Section 1124.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued... prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

Cross-correlations between crude oil and exchange markets for selected oil rich economies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jianfeng; Lu, Xinsheng; Zhou, Ying

2016-07-01

Using multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA), this paper studies the cross-correlation behavior between crude oil market and five selected exchange rate markets. The dataset covers the period of January 1,1996-December 31,2014, and contains 4,633 observations for each of the series, including daily closing prices of crude oil, Australian Dollars, Canadian Dollars, Mexican Pesos, Russian Rubles, and South African Rand. Our empirical results obtained from cross-correlation statistic and cross-correlation coefficient have confirmed the existence of cross-correlations, and the MF-DCCA results have demonstrated a strong multifractality between cross-correlated crude oil market and exchange rate markets in both short term and long term. Using rolling window analysis, we have also found the persistent cross-correlations between the exchange rates and crude oil returns, and the cross-correlation scaling exponents exhibit volatility during some time periods due to its sensitivity to sudden events.

Do payers value rarity? An analysis of the relationship between disease rarity and orphan drug prices in Europe

PubMed Central

Medic, Goran; Korchagina, Daria; Young, Katherine Eve; Toumi, Mondher; Postma, Maarten Jacobus; Wille, Micheline; Hemels, Michiel

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Background and Objective: Orphan drugs have been a highlight of discussions due to their higher prices than non-orphan drugs. There is currently no European consensus on the method of value assessment for orphan drugs. This study assessed the relationship between the prevalence of rare diseases and the annual treatment cost of orphan drugs in France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Spain, Sweden, and UK. Methods: Approved orphan drugs and prevalence data were extracted from the European Medicines Agency website. Annual treatment costs were calculated using ex-factory price. Simple regression was used to analyse the relationship between costs and prevalence. A specific bivariate analysis was performed for the rarest diseases (≤1 per 10,000). Results: 120 drugs were analysed. Prevalence ranged from 0.001 to 5 per 10,000 (mean 1.24, median 1). Annual treatment costs per patient ranged from €755 to €1,051,956 (mean €100,000, median €39,303). Results show a statistically significant inverse correlation between annual treatment cost and disease prevalence in all countries (France: r = −0.370, p = 0.002; Germany: r = −0.365, p = 0.002; Italy: r = −0.340, p = 0.002; Spain: r = −0.316, p = 0.041; UK: r = −0.358, p = 0.0004; Sweden: r = −0.414, p = 0.014; Norway: r = −0.367, p = 0.002). When analysis was focused on the rarest diseases, a stronger correlation exists in all countries (France: r = −0.525, Germany: r = −0.482, Italy: r = −0.497, Spain: r = −0.531, UK: r = −0.436, Sweden: r = −0.455, Norway: r = −0.466; all p < 0.05 except Sweden p = 0.077). Conclusions: This study shows an inverse correlation between annual treatment cost and prevalence with high statistical significance in the studied countries. Although pricing is a complex process where different attributes are assessed, this study supports the idea that payers value rarity in pricing decisions. PMID:28473888

Energy prices and substitution in United States manufacturing plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grim, Cheryl

Persistent regional disparities in electricity prices, growth in wholesale power markets, and recent deregulation attempts have intensified interest in the performance of the U.S. electric power industry, while skyrocketing fuel prices have brought renewed interest in the effect of changes in prices of all energy types on the U.S. economy. This dissertation examines energy prices and substitution between energy types in U.S. manufacturing. I use a newly constructed database that includes information on purchased electricity and electricity expenditures for more than 48,000 plants per year and additional data on the utilities that supply electricity to study the distribution of electricity prices paid by U.S. manufacturing plants from 1963 to 2000. I find a large compression in the dispersion of electricity prices from 1963 to 1978 due primarily to a decrease in quantity discounts for large electricity purchasers. I also find that spatial dispersion in retail electricity prices among states, counties and utility service territories is large, rises over time for smaller purchasers, and does not diminish as wholesale power markets expand in the 1990s. In addition, I examine energy type consumption patterns, prices, and substitution in U.S. manufacturing plants. I develop a plant-level dataset for 1998 with data on consumption and expenditures on energy and non-energy production inputs, output, and other plant characteristics. I find energy type consumption patterns vary widely across manufacturing plants. Further, I find a large amount of dispersion across plants in the prices paid for electricity, oil, natural gas, and coal. These high levels of dispersion are accounted for by the plant's location, industry, and purchase quantity. Finally, I present estimates of own- and cross-price elasticities of demand for both the energy and non-energy production inputs.

Determinants of Network News Coverage of the Oil Industry during the Late 1970s.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Erfle, Stephen; McMillan, Henry

1989-01-01

Examines which firms and products best predict media coverage of the oil industry. Reports that price variations in testing oil and gasoline correlate with the extent of news coverage provided by network television. (MM)

Polarimetric synthetic aperture radar utilized to track oil spills

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Migliaccio, Maurizio; Nunziata, Ferdinando; Brown, Carl E.; Holt, Benjamin; Li, Xiaofeng; Pichel, William; Shimada, Masanobu

2012-04-01

The continued demand for crude oil and related petroleum products along with the resulting upward spiral of the market price of oil have forced oil exploration and production companies to seek out new reserves farther offshore and in deeper waters. The United States is among the top five nations globally in terms of estimated offshore oil reserves and petroleum production. Yet deepwater drilling to extract these reserves is a major engineering challenge for oil companies. Moreover, such drilling activity also comes with a significant environmental risk, and the extremely high pressures associated with deepwater oil wells mean that the mitigation of accidental releases from a deepwater spill is truly a challenging endeavor.

Industrial conversion costs from oil and gas to alternative fuels

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Askari, H.; Reichert, A.T.

1977-01-01

From a national standpoint, many questions can be raised on conversion -- whether mandatory or through taxation. 1) Why is it necessary to intervene in the market since price increases will act to allocate available fuels. The desire to reduce dependence on imported oil and gas may be an overriding constraint -- an unproven proposition; some believe that price increases would not have a significant positive impact on output -- a position without a great deal of economic or geological foundation; and the President, for obvious reasons, did not want to force households into conversion nor did he want tomore » propose deregulation which, in the short run, may increase prices directly to consumers but it would be politically more palatable to pass on energy price increase through industry; though astute politically, the economic merit of such a decision is very questionable. 2) Is the cutback of oil and gas consumption being targeted into the least critical area of national need, namely industry. 3) From the national perspective, is conversion desirable as compared to continued dependence on foreign oil for existing plants, with non-petroleum fuel sources for new plants and new residential dwellings. If conversion costs are prohibitive, then it may be ruled out. If conversion costs are low but the real cost of using coal or electricity far exceeds the economic risk of OPEC price increases or embargoes, then again conversion may be ruled out. In short, even if conversion costs are low, it is far from obvious that conversion is desirable. In this paper, the question of conversion cost and its regional implications is examined in detail.« less

Strategies for displacing oil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao, Vikram; Gupta, Raghubir

2015-03-01

Oil currently holds a monopoly on transportation fuels. Until recently biofuels were seen as the means to break this stranglehold. They will still have a part to play, but the lead role has been handed to natural gas, almost solely due to the increased availability of shale gas. The spread between oil and gas prices, unprecedented in its scale and duration, will cause a secular shift away from oil as a raw material. In the transport fuel sector, natural gas will gain traction first in the displacement of diesel fuel. Substantial innovation is occurring in the methods of producing liquid fuel from shale gas at the well site, in particular in the development of small scale distributed processes. In some cases, the financing of such small-scale plants may require new business models.

A study on chaos in crude oil markets before and after 2008 international financial crisis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lahmiri, Salim

2017-01-01

The purpose of this study is to investigate existence of chaos in crude oil markets (Brent and WTI) before and after recent 2008 international financial crisis. Largest Lyapunov exponent is estimated for prices, returns, and volatilities. The empirical results show strong evidence that chaos does not exist in prices and returns in both crude oil markets before and after international crisis. However, we find strong evidence of chaotic dynamics in both Brent and WTI volatilities after international financial crisis.

Impact of energy prices on agricultural and energy markets: an integrated modeling approach

EPA Science Inventory

The accelerated growth in biofuels markets has both created and reinforced linkages between agricultural and energy markets. This study investigates the dynamics in biofuel and agricultural markets under alternative price scenarios for both crude oil and natural gas. Two energy ...

7 CFR 1000.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

..., rounded to the nearest cent, shall be the protein price per pound times 3.1 plus the other solids price... cents and multiplying the result by 0.99. (n) Protein price. The protein price per pound, rounded to the... one-hundredth cent, shall be the U.S. average NASS dry whey survey price reported by the Department...

[Study on the relationship between occupational stress and psychological health state among oil workers].

PubMed

Liu, Jiwen; Wang, Zhiming; Wang, Mianzhen; Lan, Yajia; Zhan, Chenglie; Zhao, Xiaoguo

2002-02-01

To study the relationship between occupational stress and psychological health state among oil workers. 1,230 oil workers in 122 work types of oil industry were selected and written occupational stress questionary(OSQ) and symptom check list (SCL-90). Petroleum workers' psychological health states were poor with increasing occupational stress degree. The scores in physical symptoms(1.87 +/- 0.80, 1.72 +/- 0.70), depression(1.74 +/- 0.76, 1.62 +/- 0.67), horror(1.48 +/- 0.65, 1.39 +/- 0.55) in the high and medium stress group were obviously higher than those in low stress group(1.55 +/- 0.61, 1.43 +/- 0.54, 1.28 +/- 0.46, respectively, P < 0.05). The score of mood state in the high and medium stress group was obviously higher than that in low stress group(P < 0.05). Psychological health states and mood state in the petroleum workers with short service length are significantly poorer than that with long service length(P < 0.01). Occupational stress should affect psychological health state of petroleum workers.

Essays on energy derivatives pricing and financial risk management =

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madaleno, Mara Teresa da Silva

This thesis consists of an introductory chapter (essay I) and five more empirical essays on electricity markets and CO2 spot price behaviour, derivatives pricing analysis and hedging. Essay I presents the structure of the thesis and electricity markets functioning and characteristics, as well as the type of products traded, to be analyzed on the following essays. In the second essay we conduct an empirical study on co-movements in electricity markets resorting to wavelet analysis, discussing long-term dynamics and markets integration. Essay three is about hedging performance and multiscale relationships in the German electricity spot and futures markets, also using wavelet analysis. We concentrate the investigation on the relationship between coherence evolution and hedge ratio analysis, on a time-frequency-scale approach, between spot and futures which conditions the effectiveness of the hedging strategy. Essays four, five and six are interrelated between them and with the other two previous essays given the nature of the commodity analyzed, CO2 emission allowances, traded in electricity markets. Relationships between electricity prices, primary energy fuel prices and carbon dioxide permits are analyzed on essay four. The efficiency of the European market for allowances is examined taking into account markets heterogeneity. Essay five analyzes stylized statistical properties of the recent traded asset CO2 emission allowances, for spot and futures returns, examining also the relation linking convenience yield and risk premium, for the German European Energy Exchange (EEX) between October 2005 and October 2009. The study was conducted through empirical estimations of CO2 allowances risk premium, convenience yield, and their relation. Future prices from an ex-post perspective are examined to show evidence for significant negative risk premium, or else a positive forward premium. Finally, essay six analyzes emission allowances futures hedging effectiveness, providing

Economic evaluation on CO₂-EOR of onshore oil fields in China

DOE PAGES

Wei, Ning; Li, Xiaochun; Dahowski, Robert T.; ...

2015-06-01

Carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery (CO₂-EOR) and sequestration in depleted oil reservoirs is a plausible option for utilizing anthropogenic CO₂ to increase oil production while storing CO₂ underground. Evaluation of the storage resources and cost of potential CO₂-EOR projects is an essential step before the commencement of large-scale deployment of such activities. In this paper, a hybrid techno-economic evaluation method, including a performance model and cost model for onshore CO₂-EOR projects, has been developed based on previous studies. Total 296 onshore oil fields, accounting for about 70% of total mature onshore oil fields in China, were evaluated by the techno-economicmore » method. The key findings of this study are summarized as follows: (1) deterministic analysis shows there are approximately 1.1 billion tons (7.7 billion barrels) of incremental crude oil and 2.2 billion tons CO₂ storage resource for onshore CO₂-EOR at net positive revenue within the Chinese oil fields reviewed under the given operating strategy and economic assumptions. (2) Sensitivity study highlights that the cumulative oil production and cumulative CO₂ storage resource are very sensitive to crude oil price, CO₂ cost, project lifetime, discount rate and tax policy. High oil price, short project lifetime, low discount rate, low CO₂ cost, and low tax policy can greatly increase the net income of the oil enterprise, incremental oil recovery and CO₂ storage resource. (3) From this techno-economic evaluation, the major barriers to large-scale deployment of CO₂-EOR include complex geological conditions, low API of crude oil, high tax policy, and lack of incentives for the CO₂-EOR project.« less

Economic evaluation on CO₂-EOR of onshore oil fields in China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wei, Ning; Li, Xiaochun; Dahowski, Robert T.

Carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery (CO₂-EOR) and sequestration in depleted oil reservoirs is a plausible option for utilizing anthropogenic CO₂ to increase oil production while storing CO₂ underground. Evaluation of the storage resources and cost of potential CO₂-EOR projects is an essential step before the commencement of large-scale deployment of such activities. In this paper, a hybrid techno-economic evaluation method, including a performance model and cost model for onshore CO₂-EOR projects, has been developed based on previous studies. Total 296 onshore oil fields, accounting for about 70% of total mature onshore oil fields in China, were evaluated by the techno-economicmore » method. The key findings of this study are summarized as follows: (1) deterministic analysis shows there are approximately 1.1 billion tons (7.7 billion barrels) of incremental crude oil and 2.2 billion tons CO₂ storage resource for onshore CO₂-EOR at net positive revenue within the Chinese oil fields reviewed under the given operating strategy and economic assumptions. (2) Sensitivity study highlights that the cumulative oil production and cumulative CO₂ storage resource are very sensitive to crude oil price, CO₂ cost, project lifetime, discount rate and tax policy. High oil price, short project lifetime, low discount rate, low CO₂ cost, and low tax policy can greatly increase the net income of the oil enterprise, incremental oil recovery and CO₂ storage resource. (3) From this techno-economic evaluation, the major barriers to large-scale deployment of CO₂-EOR include complex geological conditions, low API of crude oil, high tax policy, and lack of incentives for the CO₂-EOR project.« less

7 CFR 1000.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... order) for the preceding month: (1) The Class II price; (2) The Class II butterfat price; (3) The Class... the following month: (1) The Class I price; (2) The Class I skim milk price; (3) The Class I butterfat...; (7) The butterfat price; (8) The nonfat solids price; (9) The protein price; (10) The other solids...

7 CFR 1000.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... order) for the preceding month: (1) The Class II price; (2) The Class II butterfat price; (3) The Class... the following month: (1) The Class I price; (2) The Class I skim milk price; (3) The Class I butterfat...; (7) The butterfat price; (8) The nonfat solids price; (9) The protein price; (10) The other solids...

7 CFR 1000.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... order) for the preceding month: (1) The Class II price; (2) The Class II butterfat price; (3) The Class... the following month: (1) The Class I price; (2) The Class I skim milk price; (3) The Class I butterfat...; (7) The butterfat price; (8) The nonfat solids price; (9) The protein price; (10) The other solids...

7 CFR 1000.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... order) for the preceding month: (1) The Class II price; (2) The Class II butterfat price; (3) The Class... the following month: (1) The Class I price; (2) The Class I skim milk price; (3) The Class I butterfat...; (7) The butterfat price; (8) The nonfat solids price; (9) The protein price; (10) The other solids...

7 CFR 1000.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... order) for the preceding month: (1) The Class II price; (2) The Class II butterfat price; (3) The Class... the following month: (1) The Class I price; (2) The Class I skim milk price; (3) The Class I butterfat...; (7) The butterfat price; (8) The nonfat solids price; (9) The protein price; (10) The other solids...

Pricing of Publications Sold to the Public (B-114829), Government Printing Office.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Comptroller General of the U.S., Washington, DC.

The Government Printing Office (GPO) pricing of publications sold to the public was reviewed in order to determine whether: (1) the August 1973 price increases embraced the same financial philosophy which had prevailed in the past and (2) the relationship between the pricing structure and the annual appropriation by the Congress had changed. It…

Palm oil taxes and cardiovascular disease mortality in India: economic-epidemiologic model

PubMed Central

Babiarz, Kim S; Ebrahim, Shah; Vellakkal, Sukumar; Stuckler, David; Goldhaber-Fiebert, Jeremy D

2013-01-01

Objective To examine the potential effect of a tax on palm oil on hyperlipidemia and on mortality due to cardiovascular disease in India. Design Economic-epidemiologic model. Modeling methods A microsimulation model of mortality due to myocardial infarction and stroke among Indian populations was constructed, incorporating nationally representative data on systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, tobacco smoking, diabetes, and cardiovascular event history, and stratified by age, sex, and urban/rural residence. Household expenditure data were used to estimate the change in consumption of palm oil following changes in oil price and the potential substitution of alternative oils that might occur after imposition of a tax. A 20% excise tax on palm oil purchases was simulated over the period 2014-23. Main outcome measures The model was used to project future mortality due to myocardial infarction and stroke, as well as the potential effect of a tax on food insecurity, accounting for the effect of increased food prices. Results A 20% tax on palm oil purchases would be expected to avert approximately 363 000 (95% confidence interval 247 000 to 479 000) deaths from myocardial infarctions and strokes over the period 2014-23 in India (1.3% reduction in cardiovascular deaths) if people do not substitute other oils for reduced palm oil consumption. Given estimates of substitution of palm oil with other oils following a 20% price increase for palm oil, the beneficial effects of increased polyunsaturated fat consumption would be expected to enhance the projected reduction in deaths to as much as 421 000 (256 000 to 586 000). The tax would be expected to benefit men more than women and urban populations more than rural populations, given differential consumption and cardiovascular risk. In a scenario incorporating the effect of taxation on overall food expenditures, the tax may increase food insecurity by <1%, resulting in 16 000 (95% confidence interval 12 000

7 CFR 1126.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1126.53 Section 1126.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

7 CFR 1030.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1030.53 Section 1030.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

7 CFR 1033.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1033.53 Section 1033.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

7 CFR 1005.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1005.53 Section 1005.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

7 CFR 1032.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1032.53 Section 1032.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

7 CFR 1006.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1006.53 Section 1006.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

7 CFR 1001.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1001.53 Section 1001.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

7 CFR 1131.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1131.53 Section 1131.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

7 CFR 1007.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1007.53 Section 1007.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

Multifractal detrended cross-correlations between crude oil market and Chinese ten sector stock markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Liansheng; Zhu, Yingming; Wang, Yudong; Wang, Yiqi

2016-11-01

Based on the daily price data of spot prices of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and ten CSI300 sector indices in China, we apply multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA) method to investigate the cross-correlations between crude oil and Chinese sector stock markets. We find that the strength of multifractality between WTI crude oil and energy sector stock market is the highest, followed by the strength of multifractality between WTI crude oil and financial sector market, which reflects a close connection between energy and financial market. Then we do vector autoregression (VAR) analysis to capture the interdependencies among the multiple time series. By comparing the strength of multifractality for original data and residual errors of VAR model, we get a conclusion that vector auto-regression (VAR) model could not be used to describe the dynamics of the cross-correlations between WTI crude oil and the ten sector stock markets.

7 CFR 1006.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1006.50 Section 1006.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued..., and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

7 CFR 1007.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1007.50 Section 1007.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued..., and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

7 CFR 1126.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1126.50 Section 1126.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued..., and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

7 CFR 1131.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1131.50 Section 1131.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued..., and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

7 CFR 1005.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1005.50 Section 1005.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued..., and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

7 CFR 1032.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1032.50 Section 1032.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued..., and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

7 CFR 1001.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1001.50 Section 1001.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued..., and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

7 CFR 1033.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1033.50 Section 1033.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued..., and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

Oil and Its Influence on Strategic Planning.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-06-01

recovery , natural gas liquids, Alaskan production, shale oil, and synthetic liquids). The important point to note in Table 7 is that domestic production...efforts to conserve fuel have meant reductions in ground combat training exer- cises, Navy steaming hours, and flying hours for all services . ,,31 U.S...economic recovery brings a surge of new demand later this year, some analysts predict, oil prices could plunge by as much as 10 dollars a barrel to 24

7 CFR 1124.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1124.53 Section 1124.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

Food prices and poverty negatively affect micronutrient intakes in Guatemala.

PubMed

Iannotti, Lora L; Robles, Miguel; Pachón, Helena; Chiarella, Cristina

2012-08-01

Limited empirical evidence exists for how economic conditions affect micronutrient nutrition. We hypothesized that increasing poverty and rising food prices would reduce consumption of high-quality "luxury" foods, leading to an increased probability of inadequacy for several nutrients. The 2006 Guatemala National Living Conditions Survey was analyzed. First, energy and nutrient intakes and adequacy levels were calculated. Second, the income-nutrient relationships were investigated by assessing disparities in intakes, determining income-nutrient elasticities, and modeling nutrient intakes by reductions in income. Third, the food price-nutrient relationships were explored through determination of price-nutrient elasticities and modeling 2 price scenarios: an increase in food prices similar in magnitude to the food price crisis of 2007-2008 and a standardized 10% increase across all food groups. Disparities in nutrient intakes were greatest for vitamin B-12 (0.38 concentration index) and vitamin A (0.30 concentration index); these nutrients were highly and positively correlated with income (r = 0.22-0.54; P < 0.05). Although the baseline probability of inadequacy was highest for vitamin B-12 (83%), zinc showed the greatest increase in probability of inadequacy as income was reduced, followed by folate and vitamin A. With rising food prices, zinc intake was most acutely affected under both scenarios (P < 0.05) and folate intake in the poorest quintile (+7 percentage points) under the 10% scenario. Price-nutrient elasticities were highest for vitamin B-12 and the meat, poultry, and fish group (-0.503) and for folate and the legumes group (-0.343). The economic factors of food prices and income differentially influenced micronutrient intakes in Guatemala, notably zinc and folate intakes.

North Sea Emerald crude oil assayed

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rhodes, A.K.

1991-09-16

This book reports on an analysis of crude from Emerald field, 70 miles east of the Shetland Islands in the British North Sea, which shows that the crude is much heavier than typical North Sea crude. Elements of the long- delayed project appear to be in place, but production has not yet begun. Plans calls for producing the field at a rate of 30,000-40,000 b/d from a floating storage unit. Sovereign Oil and Gas plc has completed and fully tested seven production wells and four injectors in the marginal Emerald oil field. All flow lines are in place and themore » floating storage unit is ready to be installed. Production from Emerald will be sold to Neste Oy of Finland, at a minimum price of $17.90/bbl for Sullom Voe. Increases in spot prices above that level will be shared equally by the owners and purchaser.« less

Higher Education Prices and Price Indexes. 1978 Supplement.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Halstead, D. Kent; Hickson, Lenel

The 1978 supplement to the basic study, Higher Education Prices and Price Indexes, presents higher education price index data for fiscal years 1971 through 1978. A price index series measures the effects of price change, and price change only, on a fixed group of items. The indexes reported here measure price changes from 1967, the reference date.…

Reducing US Oil Dependence Using Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ayoub, Fadi; Arnaout, Georges M.

2011-01-01

People across the world are addicted to oil; as a result, the instability of oil prices and the shortage of oil reserves have influenced human behaviors and global businesses. Today, the United States makes up only 5% of the global population but consumes 25% of the. world total energy. Most of this energy is generated from fossil fuels in the form of electricity. The contribution of this paper is to examine the possibilities of replacing fossil fuel with renewable energies to generate electricity as well as to examine other methods to reduce oil and gas consumption. We propose a system dynamics model in an attempt to predict the future US dependence on fossil fuels by using renewable energy resources such as, nuclear, wind, solar, and hydro powers. Based on the findings of our model, the study expects to provide insights towards promising solutions of the oil dependency problem.

The impact of oil revenues on Arab Gulf development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

El Azhary, M.S.

1984-01-01

As the price of oil falls the pressures on the Arab Gulf States to speed up the diversification of their economies into non-oil sectors increases. This book examines this problem and other issues connected with the impact of oil revenues on development in the Gulf States. It considers changing oil production policies and developments in other sectors of the economy including agriculture, industry and banking. It explores population problems, moves toward Gulf economic co-ordination and the impact of oil on society, culture and education. The book provides an assessment of how much the region depends on oil for its economicmore » prosperity and its development and it provides some indication of the problems that would face the region should the demand for oil decrease still further.« less

Structural Break, Stock Prices of Clean Energy Firms and Carbon Market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yubao; Cai, Junyu

2018-03-01

This paper uses EU ETS carbon future price and Germany/UK clean energy firms stock indices to study the relationship between carbon market and clean energy market. By structural break test, it is found that the ‘non-stationary’ variables judged by classical unit root test do own unit roots and need taking first difference. After analysis of VAR and Granger causality test, no causal relationships are found between the two markets. However, when Hsiao’s version of causality test is employed, carbon market is found to have power in explaining the movement of stock prices of clean energy firms, and stock prices of clean energy firms also affect the carbon market.

U.S. Virgin Islands Petroleum Price-Spike Preparation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, C.

2012-06-01

This NREL technical report details a plan for the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) to minimize the economic damage caused by major petroleum price increases. The assumptions for this plan are that the USVI will have very little time and money to implement it and that the population will be highly motivated to follow it because of high fuel prices. The plan's success, therefore, is highly dependent on behavior change. This plan was derived largely from a review of the actions taken and behavior changes made by companies and commuters throughout the United States in response to the oil price spikemore » of 2008. Many of these solutions were coordinated by or reported through the 88 local representatives of the U.S. Department of Energy's Clean Cities program. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory provides technical and communications support for the Clean Cities program and therefore serves as a de facto repository of these solutions. This plan is the first publication that has tapped this repository.« less

Measuring Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall of crude oil portfolio using extreme value theory and vine copula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Wenhua; Yang, Kun; Wei, Yu; Lei, Likun

2018-01-01

Volatilities of crude oil price have important impacts on the steady and sustainable development of world real economy. Thus it is of great academic and practical significance to model and measure the volatility and risk of crude oil markets accurately. This paper aims to measure the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) of a portfolio consists of four crude oil assets by using GARCH-type models, extreme value theory (EVT) and vine copulas. The backtesting results show that the combination of GARCH-type-EVT models and vine copula methods can produce accurate risk measures of the oil portfolio. Mixed R-vine copula is more flexible and superior to other vine copulas. Different GARCH-type models, which can depict the long-memory and/or leverage effect of oil price volatilities, however offer similar marginal distributions of the oil returns.

Monitoring and modeling wetland chloride concentrations in relationship to oil and gas development.

PubMed

Post van der Burg, Max; Tangen, Brian A

2015-03-01

Extraction of oil and gas via unconventional methods is becoming an important aspect of energy production worldwide. Studying the effects of this development in countries where these technologies are being widely used may provide other countries, where development may be proposed, with some insight in terms of concerns associated with development. A fairly recent expansion of unconventional oil and gas development in North America provides such an opportunity. Rapid increases in energy development in North America have caught the attention of managers and scientists as a potential stressor for wildlife and their habitats. Of particular concern in the Northern Great Plains of the U.S. is the potential for chloride-rich produced water associated with unconventional oil and gas development to alter the water chemistry of wetlands. We describe a landscape scale modeling approach designed to examine the relationship between potential chloride contamination in wetlands and patterns of oil and gas development. We used a spatial Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach to assess multiple models explaining chloride concentrations in wetlands. These models included effects related to oil and gas wells (e.g. age of wells, number of wells) and surficial geology (e.g. glacial till, outwash). We found that the model containing the number of wells and the surficial geology surrounding a wetland best explained variation in chloride concentrations. Our spatial predictions showed regions of localized high chloride concentrations. Given the spatiotemporal variability of regional wetland water chemistry, we do not regard our results as predictions of contamination, but rather as a way to identify locations that may require more intensive sampling or further investigation. We suggest that an approach like the one outlined here could easily be extended to more of an adaptive monitoring approach to answer questions about chloride contamination risk that are of interest to managers

Monitoring and modeling wetland chloride concentrations in relationship to oil and gas development

USGS Publications Warehouse

Post van der Burg, Max; Tangen, Brian A.

2015-01-01

Extraction of oil and gas via unconventional methods is becoming an important aspect of energy production worldwide. Studying the effects of this development in countries where these technologies are being widely used may provide other countries, where development may be proposed, with some insight in terms of concerns associated with development. A fairly recent expansion of unconventional oil and gas development in North America provides such an opportunity. Rapid increases in energy development in North America have caught the attention of managers and scientists as a potential stressor for wildlife and their habitats. Of particular concern in the Northern Great Plains of the U.S. is the potential for chloride-rich produced water associated with unconventional oil and gas development to alter the water chemistry of wetlands. We describe a landscape scale modeling approach designed to examine the relationship between potential chloride contamination in wetlands and patterns of oil and gas development. We used a spatial Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach to assess multiple models explaining chloride concentrations in wetlands. These models included effects related to oil and gas wells (e.g. age of wells, number of wells) and surficial geology (e.g. glacial till, outwash). We found that the model containing the number of wells and the surficial geology surrounding a wetland best explained variation in chloride concentrations. Our spatial predictions showed regions of localized high chloride concentrations. Given the spatiotemporal variability of regional wetland water chemistry, we do not regard our results as predictions of contamination, but rather as a way to identify locations that may require more intensive sampling or further investigation. We suggest that an approach like the one outlined here could easily be extended to more of an adaptive monitoring approach to answer questions about chloride contamination risk that are of interest to managers.

Examination of the relationship between project management critical success factors and project success of oil and gas drilling projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alagba, Tonye J.

Oil and gas drilling projects are the primary means by which oil companies recover large volumes of commercially available hydrocarbons from deep reservoirs. These types of projects are complex in nature, involving management of multiple stakeholder interfaces, multidisciplinary personnel, complex contractor relationships, and turbulent environmental and market conditions, necessitating the application of proven project management best practices and critical success factors (CSFs) to achieve success. Although there is some practitioner oriented literature on project management CSFs for drilling projects, none of these is based on empirical evidence, from research. In addition, the literature has reported alarming rates of oil and gas drilling project failure, which is attributable not to technical factors, but to failure of project management. The aim of this quantitative correlational study therefore, was to discover an empirically verified list of project management CSFs, which consistent application leads to successful implementation of oil and gas drilling projects. The study collected survey data online, from a random sample of 127 oil and gas drilling personnel who were members of LinkedIn's online community "Drilling Supervisors, Managers, and Engineers". The results of the study indicated that 10 project management factors are individually related to project success of oil and gas drilling projects. These 10 CSFs are namely; Project mission, Top management support, Project schedule/plan, Client consultation, Personnel, Technical tasks, Client acceptance, Monitoring and feedback, Communication, and Troubleshooting. In addition, the study found that the relationships between the 10 CSFs and drilling project success is unaffected by participant and project demographics---role of project personnel, and project location. The significance of these findings are both practical, and theoretical. Practically, application of an empirically verified CSFs list to oil

Life is getting scary in the oil markets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Uttal, B.

1980-01-28

In the four years prior to 1978, crude was plentiful and often sold on the spot market for less than official OPEC prices. Then in late 1978, Iran quit exporting, and a severe winter in Europe drove stocks of heating oil far below their usual levels. Fear of shortages sent spot prices for heating oil up 112%, and crude prices followed. Many OPEC members realized that sticking to the cartel's official selling price was no longer in their interests. Some OPEC members are now pulling contracts out from under the majors and are selling directly to consuming nations. The movemore » away from the majors has increased the chances that an end user will have its supplies disrupted, causing it to buy and stockpile supplies beyond storage capacity. The producing states' new dominance has had its greatest impact not on the majors but on a special class of customers who rely on the majors for much of their crude. These are the third-party buyers, a category that includes independent refiners, governments, and any other customer not directly associated with the majors' captive distribution networks. DOE estimates that some independent refiners have lost 40% of their third-party supplies; Japan has been informed that, as of March 1980, it will lose all of the oil it receives under third-party contracts. It now seems that none of the majors has enough crude to run its own refineries and to keep up supplies to its established third-party customers. And, when supplies are loose, cartel members are likely to cut production. One analyst has said that OPEC could fulfill all of their revenue needs and still slash production by about 70%. (MCW)« less

Determinants of price setting decisions on anti-malarial drugs at retail shops in Cambodia.

PubMed

Patouillard, Edith; Hanson, Kara; Kleinschmidt, Immo; Palafox, Benjamin; Tougher, Sarah; Pok, Sochea; O'Connell, Kate; Goodman, Catherine

2015-05-30

In many low-income countries, the private commercial sector plays an important role in the provision of malaria treatment. However, the quality of care it provides is often poor, with artemisinin combination therapy (ACT) generally being too costly for consumers. Decreasing ACT prices is critical for improving private sector treatment outcomes and reducing the spread of artemisinin resistance. Yet limited evidence exists on the factors influencing retailers' pricing decisions. This study investigates the determinants of price mark-ups on anti-malarial drugs in retail outlets in Cambodia. Taking an economics perspective, the study tests the hypothesis that the structure of the anti-malarial market determines the way providers set their prices. Providers facing weak competition are hypothesized to apply high mark-ups and set prices above the competitive level. To analyse the relationship between market competition and provider pricing, the study used cross-sectional data from retail outlets selling anti-malarial drugs, including outlet characteristics data (e.g. outlet type, anti-malarial sales volumes), range of anti-malarial drugs stocked (e.g. dosage form, brand status) and purchase and selling prices. Market concentration, a measure of the level of market competition, was estimated using sales volume data. Market accessibility was defined based on travel time to the closest main commercial area. Percent mark-ups were calculated using price data. The relationship between mark-ups and market concentration was explored using regression analysis. The anti-malarial market was on average highly concentrated, suggesting weak competition. Higher concentration was positively associated with higher mark-ups in moderately accessible markets only, with no significant relationship or a negative relationship in other markets. Other determinants of pricing included anti-malarial brand status and generic type, with higher mark-ups on cheaper products. The results indicate that

Fast food prices, obesity, and the minimum wage.

PubMed

Cotti, Chad; Tefft, Nathan

2013-03-01

Recent proposals argue that a fast food tax may be an effective policy lever for reducing population weight. Although there is growing evidence for a negative association between fast food prices and weight among adolescents, less is known about adults. That any measured relationship to date is causal is unclear because there has been no attempt to separate variation in prices on the demand side from that on the supply side. We argue that the minimum wage is an exogenous source of variation in fast food prices, conditional on income and employment. In two-stage least-squares analyses, we find little evidence that fast food price changes affect adult BMI or obesity prevalence. Results are robust to including controls for area and time fixed effects, area time trends, demographic characteristics, substitute prices, numbers of establishments and employment in related industries, and other potentially related factors. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Process simulation and techno economic analysis of renewable diesel production via catalytic decarboxylation of rubber seed oil - A case study in Malaysia.

PubMed

Cheah, Kin Wai; Yusup, Suzana; Gurdeep Singh, Haswin Kaur; Uemura, Yoshimitsu; Lam, Hon Loong

2017-12-01

This work describes the economic feasibility of hydroprocessed diesel fuel production via catalytic decarboxylation of rubber seed oil in Malaysia. A comprehensive techno-economic assessment is developed using Aspen HYSYS V8.0 software for process modelling and economic cost estimates. The profitability profile and minimum fuels selling price of this synthetic fuels production using rubber seed oil as biomass feedstock are assessed under a set of assumptions for what can be plausibly be achieved in 10-years framework. In this study, renewable diesel processing facility is modelled to be capable of processing 65,000 L of inedible oil per day and producing a total of 20 million litre of renewable diesel product per annual with assumed annual operational days of 347. With the forecasted renewable diesel retail price of 3.64 RM per kg, the pioneering renewable diesel project investment offers an assuring return of investment of 12.1% and net return as high as 1.35 million RM. Sensitivity analysis conducted showed that renewable diesel production cost is most sensitive to rubber seed oil price and hydrogen gas price, reflecting on the relative importance of feedstock prices in the overall profitability profile. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Prudent use price controls in Chinese medicines market: based on statistical data analysis].

PubMed

Yang, Guang; Wang, Nuo; Huang, Lu-Qi; Qiu, Hong-Yan; Guo, Lan-Ping

2014-01-01

A dispute about the decreasing-price problem of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) has recently arisen. This article analyzes the statistical data of 1995-2011 in China, the results showed that the main responsibility of expensive health care has no direct relationship with the drug price. The price index of TCM rose significantly slower than the medicine prices, the production margins of TCM affected by the material prices has been diminishing since 1995, continuous price reduction will further depress profits of the TCM industry. Considering the pros and cons of raw materials vary greatly in price, decreasing medicine price behavior will force enterprises to use inferior materials in order to maintain corporate profits. The results have the guiding meaning to medicine price management.

Vegetable Oils as Alternative Solvents for Green Oleo-Extraction, Purification and Formulation of Food and Natural Products.

PubMed

Yara-Varón, Edinson; Li, Ying; Balcells, Mercè; Canela-Garayoa, Ramon; Fabiano-Tixier, Anne-Sylvie; Chemat, Farid

2017-09-05

Since solvents of petroleum origin are now strictly regulated worldwide, there is a growing demand for using greener, bio-based and renewable solvents for extraction, purification and formulation of natural and food products. The ideal alternative solvents are non-volatile organic compounds (VOCs) that have high dissolving power and flash point, together with low toxicity and less environmental impact. They should be obtained from renewable resources at a reasonable price and be easy to recycle. Based on the principles of Green Chemistry and Green Engineering, vegetable oils could become an ideal alternative solvent to extract compounds for purification, enrichment, or even pollution remediation. This review presents an overview of vegetable oils as solvents enriched with various bioactive compounds from natural resources, as well as the relationship between dissolving power of non-polar and polar bioactive components with the function of fatty acids and/or lipid classes in vegetable oils, and other minor components. A focus on simulation of solvent-solute interactions and a discussion of polar paradox theory propose a mechanism explaining the phenomena of dissolving polar and non-polar bioactive components in vegetable oils as green solvents with variable polarity.

Pricing and competition in the private dental market in Finland.

PubMed

Widström, E; Väisänen, A; Mikkola, H

2011-06-01

To investigate how the prices were set in private dental care, which factors determined prices and whether the recent National Dental Care Reform had increased competition in the dental care market in Finland. A questionnaire to all full time private dentists (n = 1,121) in the ten largest cities. Characteristics of the practice, prices charged, price setting, perceived competition and expectations for the practices were requested. The response rate was 59.6%. Correlation analysis (Pearson's) was used to study relationships between the prices of different treatment items. Linear regression analysis was used to study determinants of the price of a one surface filling. Most dentists' fee schedules were based on the price of a one surface filling and updated annually. Changes in practice costs calculated by the dentists' professional association and information on average prices charged on dental treatments in the country influenced pricing. High price levels were associated with specialisation, working in a group practice, working close to many other practices or in a town with a dental school. Less than half of the respondents had faced competition in dental services and price competition was insignificant. Price setting followed traditional patterns and private markets in dental services were not found to be very competitive.

Physician practice competition and prices paid by private insurers for office visits.

PubMed

Baker, Laurence C; Bundorf, M Kate; Royalty, Anne B; Levin, Zachary

Physician practice consolidation could promote higher-quality care but may also create greater economic market power that could lead to higher prices for physician services. To assess the relationship between physician competition and prices paid by private preferred provider organizations (PPOs) for 10 types of office visits in 10 prominent specialties. Retrospective study in 1058 US counties in urbanized areas, representing all 50 states, examining the relationship between measured physician competition and prices paid for office visits in 2010 and the relationship between changes in competition and prices between 2003 and 2010, using regression analysis to control for possible confounding factors. Variation in the mean Hirschman-Herfindahl Index (HHI) of physician practices within a county by specialty (HHIs range from 0, representing maximally competitive markets, to 10,000 in markets served by a single [monopoly] practice). Mean price paid by county to physicians in each specialty by private PPOs for intermediate office visits with established patients (Current Procedural Terminology [CPT] code 99213) and a price index measuring the county-weighted mean price for 10 types of office visits with new and established patients (CPT codes 99201-99205, 99211-99215) relative to national mean prices. In 2010, across all specialties studied, HHIs were 3 to 4 times higher in the 90th-percentile county than the 10th-percentile county (eg, for family practice: 10th percentile HHI = 1023 and 90th percentile HHI = 3629). Depending on specialty, mean price for a CPT code 99213 visit was between $70 and $75. After adjustment for potential confounders, depending on specialty, prices at the 90th-percentile HHI were between $5.85 (orthopedics; 95% CI, $3.46-$8.24) and $11.67 (internal medicine; 95% CI, $9.13-$14.21) higher than at the 10th percentile. Including all types of office visits, price indexes at the 90th-percentile HHI were 8.3% (orthopedics; 95% CI, 5

Speculation on commodities futures markets and destabilization of global food prices: exploring the connections.

PubMed

Ghosh, Jayati; Heintz, James; Pollin, Robert

2012-01-01

In December 2010, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization's Food Price Index surpassed its previous peak of June 2008, and prices remained at this level through September 2011. This pattern is creating justified fears of a renewal or intensification of the global food crisis. This paper reviews arguments and evidence to inform debates on how to regulate commodity futures markets in the face of such price volatility and sustained high prices. We focus on the relationship between market liquidity and price patterns in asset markets in general and in commodities futures markets in particular, as well as the relationship between spot and futures market prices for food. We find strong evidence supporting the need to limit huge increases in trading volume on futures markets through regulations. We find that arguments opposing regulation are not supported. We find no support for the claim that liquidity in futures markets stabilizes prices at "fundamental" values or that spot market prices are free of any significant influence from futures markets. Given these results, the most appropriate position for regulators is precautionary: they should enact and enforce policies capable of effectively dampening excessive speculative trading on the commodities markets for food.

Carbon coatings with olive oil, soybean oil and butter on nano-LiFePO 4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Ketack; Jeong, Ji Hwa; Kim, Ick-Jun; Kim, Hyun-Soo

Kitchen oils (olive, soybean and butter) are selected for carbon coatings on LiFePO 4. The surface properties of LiFePO 4 are unknown or vary depending on synthetic methods. The multi-functional groups of fatty acids in the oils can orient properly to cope with the variable surface properties of LiFePO 4, which can lead to dense carbon coatings. The low price and low toxicity of kitchen oils are other advantages of the coating process. LiFePO 4 (D 50 = 121 nm)combined with the carbon coating enhances the rate capability. Capacities at the 2 C rate reach 150 mAh g -1 or higher. The charge retention values of 2.0 C/0.2 C are between 94.4 and 98.9%.

Fuel oil and kerosene sales 1994

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1995-09-27

This publication contains the 1994 survey results of the ``Annual Fuel Oil and Kerosene Sales Report`` (Form EIA-821). This is the sixth year that the survey data have appeared in a separate publication. Prior to the 1989 report, the statistics appeared in the Petroleum Marketing Annual (PMA)for reference year 1988 and the Petroleum Marketing Monthly (PMM) for reference years 1984 through 1987. The 1994 edition marks the 11th annual presentation of the results of the ongoing ``Annual Fuel Oil and Kerosene Sales Report`` survey. Distillate and residual fuel oil sales continued to move in opposite directions during 1994. Distillate salesmore » rose for the third year in a row, due to a growing economy. Residual fuel oil sales, on the other hand, declined for the sixth year in a row, due to competitive natural gas prices, and a warmer heating season than in 1993. Distillate fuel oil sales increased 4.4 percent while residual fuel oil sales declined 1.6 percent. Kerosene sales decreased 1.4 percent in 1994.« less

An econometric simulation model of income and electricity demand in Alaska's Railbelt, 1982-2022

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maddigan, R.J.; Hill, L.J.; Hamblin, D.M.

1987-01-01

This report describes the specification of-and forecasts derived from-the Alaska Railbelt Electricity Load, Macroeconomic (ARELM) model. ARELM was developed as an independent, modeling tool for the evaluation of the need for power from the Susitna Hydroelectric Project which has been proposed by the Alaska Power Authority. ARELM is an econometric simulation model consisting of 61 equations - 46 behavioral equations and 15 identities. The system includes two components: (1) ARELM-MACRO which is a system of equations that simulates the performance of both the total Alaskan and Railbelt macroeconomies and (2) ARELM-LOAD which projects electricity-related activity in the Alaskan Railbelt region.more » The modeling system is block recursive in the sense that forecasts of population, personal income, and employment in the Railbelt derived from ARELM-MACRO are used as explanatory variables in ARELM-LOAD to simulate electricity demand, the real average price of electricity, and the number of customers in the Railbelt. Three scenarios based on assumptions about the future price of crude oil are simulated and documented in the report. The simulations, which do not include the cost-of-power impacts of Susitna-based generation, show that the growth rate in Railbelt electricity load is between 2.5 and 2.7% over the 1982 to 2022 forecast period. The forecasting results are consistent with other projections of load growth in the region using different modeling approaches.« less

Pricing and reimbursement of drugs in Denmark.

PubMed

Møller Pedersen, K

2003-01-01

The Danish health care system is decentralized and tax financed. Reimbursable drugs are financed by the national health insurance, which despite its official name, is a tax-funded system for paying for drugs,practicing physicians outside hospitals, dentists, etc. Most issues related to pricing and reimbursement of drugs are placed centrally, however, with the Danish Medicines Agency, and in contrast to most of the health care system reimbursement is thoroughly grounded in legislation. Pricing in principle is free. In the 1990s a number of agreements between industry and government in practice introduced regulated price competition. Generic substitution at the pharmacy level and the agreements between government and industry have led to a decline in the overall price level for drugs from 1995 and onwards. The still increasing drug expenditures hence must be attributed to increasing volume and the introduction of new drugs. Reimbursement is divided into two: general reimbursement meaning unconditional reimbursement for a given drug or single reimbursement based on an application from the patient's physician on behalf of individual patients. The criteria for granting general reimbursement are relatively clear. Economic evaluations on a voluntary basis can be used to support documentation of a reasonable relationship between price and therapeutic effects. Reimbursement is calculated on the basis of an average European price level.

Maximize Liquid Oil Production from Shale Oil and Gas Condensate Reservoirs by Cyclic Gas Injection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sheng, James; Li, Lei; Yu, Yang

The current technology to produce shale oil reservoirs is the primary depletion using fractured wells (generally horizontal wells). The oil recovery is less than 10%. The prize to enhance oil recovery (EOR) is big. Based on our earlier simulation study, huff-n-puff gas injection has the highest EOR potential. This project was to explore the potential extensively and from broader aspects. The huff-n-puff gas injection was compared with gas flooding, water huff-n-puff and waterflooding. The potential to mitigate liquid blockage was also studied and the gas huff-n-puff method was compared with other solvent methods. Field pilot tests were initiated but terminatedmore » owing to the low oil price and the operator’s budget cut. To meet the original project objectives, efforts were made to review existing and relevant field projects in shale and tight reservoirs. The fundamental flow in nanopores was also studied.« less

DCCA analysis of renewable and conventional energy prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paiva, Aureliano Sancho Souza; Rivera-Castro, Miguel Angel; Andrade, Roberto Fernandes Silva

2018-01-01

Here we investigate the inter-influence of oil prices and renewable energy sources. The non-stationary time series are scrutinized within the Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (DCCA) framework, where the resulting DCCA coefficient provides a useful and reliable index to the evaluate the cross correlation between events at the same time instant as well as at a suitably chosen time lags. The analysis is based on the quotient of two successive daily closing oil prices and composite indices of renewable energy sources in USA and Europe in the period 2006-2015, which was subject to several social and economic driving forces, as the increase of social pressure in favor of the use of non-fossil energy sources and the worldwide economic crisis that started in 2008. The DCCA coefficient is evaluated for different window sizes, extracting information for short and long term correlation between the indices. Particularly, strong correlation between the behavior of the two distinct economic sectors are observed for large time intervals during the worst period of the economic crisis (2008-2012), hinting at a very cautious behavior of the economic agents. Before and after this period, the behavior of two economic sectors are overwhelmingly uncorrelated or very weakly correlated. The results reported here may be useful to select proper strategies in future similar scenarios.

48 CFR 36.207 - Pricing fixed-price construction contracts.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Pricing fixed-price... Contracting for Construction 36.207 Pricing fixed-price construction contracts. (a) Generally, firm-fixed... methods. (b) Lump-sum pricing shall be used in preference to unit pricing except when— (1) Large...

Higher prices, higher quality? Evidence from German nursing homes.

PubMed

Herr, Annika; Hottenrott, Hanna

2016-02-01

This study investigates the relationship between prices and quality of 7400 German nursing homes. We use a cross section of public quality reports for all German nursing homes, which had been evaluated between 2010 and 2013 by external institutions. Our analysis is based on multivariate regressions in a two stage least squares framework, where we instrument prices to explain their effect on quality controlling for income, nursing home density, demographics, labour market characteristics, and infrastructure at the regional level. Descriptive analysis shows that prices and quality do not only vary across nursing homes, but also across counties and federal states and that quality and prices correlate positively. Second, the econometric analysis, which accounts for the endogenous relation between negotiated price and reported quality, shows that quality indeed positively depends on prices. In addition, more places in nursing homes per people in need are correlated with both lower prices and higher quality. Finally, unobserved factors at the federal state level capture some of the variation of reported quality across nursing homes. Our results suggest that higher prices increase quality. Furthermore, since reported quality and prices vary substantially across federal states, we conclude that the quality and prices of long-term care facilities may well be compared within federal states but not across. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hospital prices and market structure in the hospital and insurance industries.

PubMed

Moriya, Asako S; Vogt, William B; Gaynor, Martin

2010-10-01

There has been substantial consolidation among health insurers and hospitals, recently, raising questions about the effects of this consolidation on the exercise of market power. We analyze the relationship between insurer and hospital market concentration and the prices of hospital services. We use a national US dataset containing transaction prices for health care services for over 11 million privately insured Americans. Using three years of panel data, we estimate how insurer and hospital market concentration are related to hospital prices, while controlling for unobserved market effects. We find that increases in insurance market concentration are significantly associated with decreases in hospital prices, whereas increases in hospital concentration are non-significantly associated with increases in prices. A hypothetical merger between two of five equally sized insurers is estimated to decrease hospital prices by 6.7%.

Relationship of mother and child food purchases as a function of price: a pilot study.

PubMed

Epstein, Leonard H; Dearing, Kelly K; Handley, Elizabeth A; Roemmich, James N; Paluch, Rocco A

2006-07-01

To our knowledge, there are no data on parental influences on child purchasing behavior of healthy or unhealthy foods. Mothers and children in ten families were given 5.00 US dollars to purchase portions of preferred fruits/vegetables and high energy-dense snack foods for each of ten trials of price manipulations. For five of the trials the price of the fruit/vegetable increased in price from 0.50 US dollars to 2.50 US dollars (in 0.50 US dollar increments), while the price of the energy-dense snack food remained constant at 1.00 US dollar. For the remaining five trials, the commodity that previously rose in price remained constant at 1.00 US dollars and the other commodity varied from 0.50 US dollars to 2.50 US dollars. Same-price elasticity was shown for both the child and parent purchases, and parent purchases were significantly related to child purchases of both healthy (regression estimate = 0.46, p < 0.001) and unhealthy (regression estimate = 0.12, p = 0.036) foods. Children's purchases of unhealthy snack food items were positively related to family socioeconomic status, and negatively related to child age. These results indicate that parental food choice and purchasing behaviors may play a role in the development of children's purchasing of both healthy and unhealthy foods.

Using infrastructure optimization to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from oil sands extraction and processing.

PubMed

Middleton, Richard S; Brandt, Adam R

2013-02-05

The Alberta oil sands are a significant source of oil production and greenhouse gas emissions, and their importance will grow as the region is poised for decades of growth. We present an integrated framework that simultaneously considers economic and engineering decisions for the capture, transport, and storage of oil sands CO(2) emissions. The model optimizes CO(2) management infrastructure at a variety of carbon prices for the oil sands industry. Our study reveals several key findings. We find that the oil sands industry lends itself well to development of CO(2) trunk lines due to geographic coincidence of sources and sinks. This reduces the relative importance of transport costs compared to nonintegrated transport systems. Also, the amount of managed oil sands CO(2) emissions, and therefore the CCS infrastructure, is very sensitive to the carbon price; significant capture and storage occurs only above 110$/tonne CO(2) in our simulations. Deployment of infrastructure is also sensitive to CO(2) capture decisions and technology, particularly the fraction of capturable CO(2) from oil sands upgrading and steam generation facilities. The framework will help stakeholders and policy makers understand how CCS infrastructure, including an extensive pipeline system, can be safely and cost-effectively deployed.

Enhancing medicine price transparency through price information mechanisms

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Medicine price information mechanisms provide an essential tool to countries that seek a better understanding of product availability, market prices and price compositions of individual medicines. To be effective and contribute to cost savings, these mechanisms need to consider prices in their particular contexts when comparing between countries. This article discusses in what ways medicine price information mechanisms can contribute to increased price transparency and how this may affect access to medicines for developing countries. Methods We used data collected during the course of a WHO project focusing on the development of a vaccine price and procurement information mechanism. The project collected information from six medicine price information mechanisms and interviewed data managers and technical experts on key aspects as well as observed market effects of these mechanisms. The reviewed mechanisms were broken down into categories including objective and target audience, as well as the sources, types and volumes of data included. Information provided by the mechanisms was reviewed according to data available on medicine prices, product characteristics, and procurement modalities. Results We found indications of positive effects on access to medicines resulting from the utilization of the reviewed mechanisms. These include the uptake of higher quality medicines, more favorable results from contract negotiations, changes in national pricing policies, and the decrease of prices in certain segments for countries participating in or deriving data from the various mechanisms. Conclusion The reviewed mechanisms avoid the methodological challenges observed for medicine price comparisons that only use national price databases. They work with high quality data and display prices in the appropriate context of procurement modalities as well as the peculiarities of purchasing countries. Medicine price information mechanisms respond to the need for increased

Enhancing medicine price transparency through price information mechanisms.

PubMed

Hinsch, Michael; Kaddar, Miloud; Schmitt, Sarah

2014-05-08

Medicine price information mechanisms provide an essential tool to countries that seek a better understanding of product availability, market prices and price compositions of individual medicines. To be effective and contribute to cost savings, these mechanisms need to consider prices in their particular contexts when comparing between countries. This article discusses in what ways medicine price information mechanisms can contribute to increased price transparency and how this may affect access to medicines for developing countries. We used data collected during the course of a WHO project focusing on the development of a vaccine price and procurement information mechanism. The project collected information from six medicine price information mechanisms and interviewed data managers and technical experts on key aspects as well as observed market effects of these mechanisms.The reviewed mechanisms were broken down into categories including objective and target audience, as well as the sources, types and volumes of data included. Information provided by the mechanisms was reviewed according to data available on medicine prices, product characteristics, and procurement modalities. We found indications of positive effects on access to medicines resulting from the utilization of the reviewed mechanisms. These include the uptake of higher quality medicines, more favorable results from contract negotiations, changes in national pricing policies, and the decrease of prices in certain segments for countries participating in or deriving data from the various mechanisms. The reviewed mechanisms avoid the methodological challenges observed for medicine price comparisons that only use national price databases. They work with high quality data and display prices in the appropriate context of procurement modalities as well as the peculiarities of purchasing countries. Medicine price information mechanisms respond to the need for increased medicine price transparency and have the

Higher Education Prices and Price Indexes: 1981 Update.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Research Associates of Washington, DC.

Higher Education prices and price indexes for fiscal years 1979-1981 are presented, with narrative explanation. A price index series measures the effects of price change on a fixed group of items. The change in price index values from year to year may be interpreted as the change in dollars required to offset the effects of inflation in buying the…

Measuring efficiency of international crude oil markets: A multifractality approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niere, H. M.

2015-01-01

The three major international crude oil markets are treated as complex systems and their multifractal properties are explored. The study covers daily prices of Brent crude, OPEC reference basket and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude from January 2, 2003 to January 2, 2014. A multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA) is employed to extract the generalized Hurst exponents in each of the time series. The generalized Hurst exponent is used to measure the degree of multifractality which in turn is used to quantify the efficiency of the three international crude oil markets. To identify whether the source of multifractality is long-range correlations or broad fat-tail distributions, shuffled data and surrogated data corresponding to each of the time series are generated. Shuffled data are obtained by randomizing the order of the price returns data. This will destroy any long-range correlation of the time series. Surrogated data is produced using the Fourier-Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (F-DFA). This is done by randomizing the phases of the price returns data in Fourier space. This will normalize the distribution of the time series. The study found that for the three crude oil markets, there is a strong dependence of the generalized Hurst exponents with respect to the order of fluctuations. This shows that the daily price time series of the markets under study have signs of multifractality. Using the degree of multifractality as a measure of efficiency, the results show that WTI is the most efficient while OPEC is the least efficient market. This implies that OPEC has the highest likelihood to be manipulated among the three markets. This reflects the fact that Brent and WTI is a very competitive market hence, it has a higher level of complexity compared against OPEC, which has a large monopoly power. Comparing with shuffled data and surrogated data, the findings suggest that for all the three crude oil markets, the multifractality is mainly due to long

Air-cushion tankers for Alaskan North Slope oil

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, J. L.

1973-01-01

A concept is described for transporting oil from the Arctic to southern markets in 10,000-ton, chemically fueled air-cushion vehicles (ACV's) configured as tankers. Based on preliminary cost estimates the conceptual ACV tanker system as tailored to the transportation of Alaskan North Slope oil could deliver the oil for about the same price per barrel as the proposed trans-Alaska pipeline with only one-third of the capital investment. The report includes the description of the conceptual system and its operation; preliminary cost estimates; an appraisal of ACV tanker development; and a comparison of system costs, versatility, vulnerability, and ecological effect with those of the trans-Alaska pipeline.

U.S. Crude Oil and Natural Gas Proved Reserves

EIA Publications

2016-01-01

U.S. oil and natural gas proved reserves declined in 2015 due to lower prices. U.S. crude oil and lease condensate proved reserves declined 4.7 billion barrels (11.8%) from their year-end 2014 level to 35.2 billion barrels at year-end 2015, according to U.S. Crude Oil and Natural Gas Proved Reserves, Year-end 2015, released today by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. U.S natural gas proved reserves decreased 64.5 trillion cubic feet, a 16.6% decline, reducing the U.S. total to 324.3 Tcf at year-end 2015.

Association Between Energy Prices and US Hospital Patient Outcomes.

PubMed

Brown, Lawrence H; Chaiechi, Taha; Buettner, Petra G; Canyon, Deon V

2017-04-01

To evaluate associations between changing energy prices and US hospital patient outcomes. Generalized estimating equations were used to analyze relationships between changes in energy prices and subsequent changes in hospital patient outcomes measures for the years 2008 through 2014. Patient outcomes measures included 30-day acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, and pneumonia mortality rates, and 30-day acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, and pneumonia readmission rates. Energy price data included state average distillate fuel, electricity and natural gas prices, and the US average coal price. All of the price data were converted to 2014 dollars using Consumer Price Index multipliers. There was a significant positive association between changes in coal price and both short-term ( P = 0.029) and long-term ( P = 0.017) changes in the 30-day heart failure mortality rate. There was a similar significant positive association between changes in coal price and both short-term ( P <0.001) and long-term ( P = 0.002) changes in the 30-day pneumonia mortality rate. Changes in coal prices also were positively associated with long-term changes in the 30-day myocardial infarction readmission rate ( P < 0.001). Changes in coal prices ( P = 0.20), natural gas prices ( P = 0.040), and electricity prices ( P = 0.040) were positively associated with long-term changes in the 30-day heart failure readmission rate. Changing energy prices are associated with subsequent changes in hospital mortality and readmission measures. In light of these data, we encourage hospital, health system, and health policy leaders to pursue patient-support initiatives, energy conservation programs, and reimbursement policy strategies aimed at mitigating those effects.

Exploratory study on the effect of discount pricing strategies for new product introduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mat Zaib, Nurul Afiqah; Bazin, Nor Erne Nazira; Mustaffa, Noorfa Haszlinna

2013-04-01

Rapid introduction of new product into the market has resulted in growing competition between retailers. Nowadays, retailers compete with one another in order to increase revenue and to maintain their position in the marketplace. This situation has forced the retailers to enhance their strategic management as well as creating competitive advantages. Generally, this situation can be observed in highly demanded product such as fashion goods and high technology electronic devices (smart phone, notebook). The consequence from the intense competition and new product introduction is difficulties in retailers pricing management. Retailers are now facing with complexity in making decisions on suitable pricing strategies and discount level for new product in association with the product life cycle. Thus, this research aims to investigate the suitable discount pricing strategies that can be integrated in every phase of product life cycle. This paper presents relationships between the discount pricing and the stages in the product life cycle in the form of conceptual diagram and mathematical expression. A system dynamic approach is used for developing the conceptual diagram and formulating the mathematical expression for the discount pricing strategies to visualize the relationship between discount pricing and product life cycle.