Air quality is a key element for the well-being and quality of life of European citizens. Air pollution measurements and modeling tools are essential for the assessment of air quality according to EU legislation. The responsibilities of ZAMG as the national weather service of Austria include the support of the federal states and the public in questions connected to the protection of the environment in the frame of advisory and counseling services as well as expert opinions. ZAMG conducts daily Air-Quality forecasts using the on-line coupled model WRF/Chem. Meteorology is simulated simultaneously with the emissions, turbulent mixing, transport, transformation, and fate of trace gases and aerosols. The emphasis of the application is on predicting pollutants over Austria. Two domains are used for the simulations: the mother domain covers Europe with a resolution of 12 km, the inner domain includes the alpine region with a horizontal resolution of 4 km; 45 model levels are used in the vertical direction. The model runs 2 times per day for a period of 72 hours and is initialized with ECMWF forecasts. On-line coupled models allow considering two-way interactions between different atmospheric processes including chemistry (both gases and aerosols), clouds, radiation, boundary layer, emissions, meteorology and climate. In the operational set-up direct-, indirect and semi-direct effects between meteorology and air chemistry are enabled. The model is running on the HPCF (High Performance Computing Facility) of the ZAMG. In the current set-up 1248 CPUs are used. As the simulations need a big amount of computing resources, a method to safe I/O-time was implemented. Every MPI task writes all its output into the shared memory filesystem of the compute nodes. Once the WRF/Chem integration is finished, all split NetCDF-files are merged and saved on the global file system. The merge-routine is based on parallel-NetCDF. With this method the model runs about 30% faster on the SGI-ICEX. Different additional external data sources can be used to improve the forecasts. Satellite measurements of the Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) and ground-based PM10-measurements are combined to highly-resolved initial fields using regression- and assimilation techniques. The available local emission inventories provided by the different Austrian regional governments were harmonized and are used for the model simulations. A model evaluation for a selected episode in February 2010 is presented with respect to PM10 forecasts. During that month exceedances of PM10-thresholds occurred at many measurement stations of the Austrian network. Different model runs (only model/only ground stations assimilated/satellite and ground stations assimilated) are compared to the respective measurements.
Hirtl, Marcus; Mantovani, Simone; Krüger, Bernd C.; Flandorfer, Claudia; Langer, Matthias
This paper examines the connection between the probability of precipitation and forecast amounts from Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model runs over Central and West Africa. A one season period (June-September 2010) was used to investigate the quantitative precipitation forecast-probability relationship. The predictive capability of this relationship was then tested on an independent sample of data (June-September 2011); 2010 and 2011 were wet and dry years, respectively. The results show that rainfall is less likely to occur in those areas where the model indicates no precipitation than it is elsewhere in the domain. Rainfall is more likely to occur in those regions where precipitation is predicted, especially where the predicted precipitation amounts are largest. The probabilities of rainfall forecasts based on this relationship are found to possess skill as measured by relative operating characteristic curves, reliability diagrams, and Brier skill scores. Skillful forecasts from the technique exist throughout 24-h periods for which WRF output was available. The results suggest that this forecasting tool might assist forecasters throughout the season in a wide variety of weather events and not only in areas of difficult-to-forecast convective systems.
Tanessong, Roméo S.; Igri, P. Moudi; Vondou, Derbetini A.; Tamo, P. H. Kamsu; Kamga, F. Mkankam
Studies at the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Center have suggested that the use of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sea-surface temperature (SST) composites in regional weather forecast models can have a significant positive impact on short-term numerical weather prediction in coastal regions. Recent work by LaCasse et al (2007, Monthly Weather Review) highlights lower atmospheric differences in regional numerical simulations over the Florida offshore waters using 2-km SST composites derived from the MODIS instrument aboard the polar-orbiting Aqua and Terra Earth Observing System satellites. To help quantify the value of this impact on NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs), the SPORT Center and the NWS WFO at Miami, FL (MIA) are collaborating on a project to investigate the impact of using the high-resolution MODIS SST fields within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) prediction system. The project's goal is to determine whether more accurate specification of the lower-boundary forcing within WRF will result in improved land/sea fluxes and hence, more accurate evolution of coastal mesoscale circulations and the associated sensible weather elements. The NWS MIA is currently running WRF in real-time to support daily forecast operations, using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model dynamical core within the NWS Science and Training Resource Center's Environmental Modeling System (EMS) software. Twenty-seven hour forecasts are run dally initialized at 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC on a domain with 4-km grid spacing covering the southern half of Florida and adjacent waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. Each model run is initialized using the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) analyses available in AWIPS. The SSTs are initialized with the NCEP Real-Time Global (RTG) analyses at 1/12deg resolution (approx.9 km); however, the RTG product does not exhibit fine-scale details consistent with its grid resolution. SPORT is conducting parallel WRF EMS runs identical to the operational runs at NWS MIA except for the use of MODIS SST composites in place of the RTG product as the initial and boundary conditions over water, The MODIS SST composites for initializing the SPORT WRF runs are generated on a 2-km grid four times daily at 0400, 0700, 1600, and 1900 UTC, based on the times of the overhead passes of the Aqua and Terra satellites. The incorporation of the MODIS SST data into the SPORT WRF runs is staggered such that SSTs are updated with a new composite every six hours in each of the WRF runs. From mid-February to July 2007, over 500 parallel WRF simulations have been collected for analysis and verification. This paper will present verification results comparing the NWS MIA operational WRF runs to the SPORT experimental runs, and highlight any substantial differences noted in the predicted mesoscale phenomena for specific cases.
Case, Jonathan L.; Santos, Pablo; Lazarus, Steven M.; Splitt, Michael E.; Haines, Stephanie L.; Dembek, Scott R.; Lapenta, William M.
Atmospheric pollution regulations have emerged as a dominant obstacle to prescribed burns. Thus, forecasting the pollution caused by wildland fires has acquired high importance. WRF and SFIRE model wildland fire spread in a two-way interaction with the atmosphere. The surface heat flux from the fire causes strong updrafts, which in turn change the winds and affect the fire spread. Fire emissions, estimated from the burning organic matter, are inserted in every time step into WRF-Chem tracers at the lowest atmospheric layer. The buoyancy caused by the fire then naturally simulates plume dynamics, and the chemical transport in WRF-Chem provides a forecast of the pollution spread. We discuss the choice of wood burning models and compatible chemical transport models in WRF-Chem, and demonstrate the results on case studies.
Kochanski, Adam K; Mandel, Jan; Clements, Craig B
This paper introduces a lightning forecasting method called Potential Lightning Region (PLR), which is the probability of the occurrence of lightning over a region of interest. The PLR was calculated using a combination of meteorological variables obtained from high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations during the summer season in southeastern Brazil. The model parameters used in the PLR definition were: surface-based Convective Available Potential Energy (SBCAPE), Lifted Index (LI), K-Index (KI), average vertical velocity between 850 and 700 hPa (w), and integrated ice-mixing ratio from 700 to 500 hPa (QICE). Short-range runs of twelve non-severe thunderstorm cases were performed with the WRF model, using different convective and microphysical schemes. Through statistical evaluations, the WRF cloud parameterizations that best described the convective thunderstorms with lightning in southeastern Brazil were the combination of Grell-Devenyi and Thompson schemes. Two calculation methods were proposed: the Linear PLR and Normalized PLR. The difference between them is basically how they deal with the influence of lightning flashes over the WRF domain's grid points for the twelve thunderstorms analyzed. Three case studies were used to test both methods. A statistical evaluation lowering the spatial resolution of the WRF grid into larger areas was performed to study the behavior and accuracy of the PLR methods. The Normalized PLR presented the most suitable one, predicting flash occurrence appropriately.
Zepka, G. S.; Pinto, O.; Saraiva, A. C. V.
A new method for driving a One-Dimensional Stratiform Cold (1DSC) cloud model with Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model outputs was developed by conducting numerical experiments for a typical large-scale stratiform rainfall event that took place on 4-5 July 2004 in Changchun, China. Sensitivity test results suggested that, with hydrometeor profiles extracted from the WRF outputs as the initial input, and with continuous updating of soundings and vertical velocities (including downdraft) derived from the WRF model, the new WRF-driven 1DSC modeling system (WRF-1DSC) was able to successfully reproduce both the generation and dissipation processes of the precipitation event. The simulated rainfall intensity showed a time-lag behind that observed, which could have been caused by simulation errors of soundings, vertical velocities and hydrometeor profiles in the WRF output. Taking into consideration the simulated and observed movement path of the precipitation system, a nearby grid point was found to possess more accurate environmental fields in terms of their similarity to those observed in Changchun Station. Using profiles from this nearby grid point, WRF-1DSC was able to reproduce a realistic precipitation pattern. This study demonstrates that 1D cloud-seeding models do indeed have the potential to predict realistic precipitation patterns when properly driven by accurate atmospheric profiles derived from a regional shortrange forecasting system. This opens a novel and important approach to developing an ensemble-based rain enhancement prediction and operation system under a probabilistic framework concept.
Jin, Ling; Kong, Fanyou; Lei, Hengchi; Hu, Zhaoxia
SPoRT/SERVIR/RCMRD/KMS Collaboration: Builds off strengths of each organization. SPoRT: Transition of satellite, modeling and verification capabilities; SERVIR-Africa/RCMRD: International capacity-building expertise; KMS: Operational organization with regional weather forecasting expertise in East Africa. Hypothesis: Improved land-surface initialization over Eastern Africa can lead to better temperature, moisture, and ultimately precipitation forecasts in NWP models. KMS currently initializes Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with NCEP/Global Forecast System (GFS) model 0.5-deg initial / boundary condition data. LIS will provide much higher-resolution land-surface data at a scale more representative to regional WRF configuration. Future implementation of real-time NESDIS/VIIRS vegetation fraction to further improve land surface representativeness.
Case, Jonathan L.; Mungai, John; Sakwa, Vincent; Kabuchanga, Eric; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Limaye, Ashutosh S.
The increasing penetration of wind energy into national electricity markets has increased the demand for accurate surface layer wind forecasts. There has recently been a focus on forecasting the wind at wind farm sites using both statistical models and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Recent advances in computing capacity and non-hydrostatic NWP models means that it is possible to nest mesoscale models down to Large Eddy Simulation (LES) scales over the spatial area of a typical wind farm. For example, the WRF model (Skamarock 2008) has been run at a resolution of 123 m over a wind farm site in complex terrain in Colorado (Liu et al. 2009). Although these modelling attempts indicate a great hope for applying such models for detailed wind forecasts over wind farms, one of the obvious challenges of running the model at this resolution is that while some boundary layer structures are expected to be modelled explicitly, boundary layer eddies into the inertial sub-range can only be partly captured. Therefore, the amount and nature of sub-grid-scale mixing that is required is uncertain. Analysis of Liu et al. (2009) modelling results in comparison to wind farm observations indicates that unrealistic wind speed fluctuations with a period of around 1 hour occasionally occurred during the two day modelling period. The problem was addressed by re-running the same modelling system with a) a modified diffusion constant and b) two-way nesting between the high resolution model and its parent domain. The model, which was run with horizontal grid spacing of 370 m, had dimensions of 505 grid points in the east-west direction and 490 points in the north-south direction. It received boundary conditions from a mesoscale model of resolution 1111 m. Both models had 37 levels in the vertical. The mesoscale model was run with a non-local-mixing planetary boundary layer scheme, while the 370 m model was run with no planetary boundary layer scheme. It was found that increasing the diffusion constant caused damping of the unrealistic fluctuations, but did not completely solve the problem. Using two-way nesting also mitigated the unrealistic fluctuations significantly. It can be concluded that for real case LES modelling of wind farm circulations, care should be taken to ensure the consistency between the mesoscale weather forcing and LES models to avoid exciting spurious noise along the forcing boundary. The development of algorithms that adequately model the sub-grid-scale mixing that cannot be resolved by LES models is an important area for further research. References Liu, Y. Y._W. Liu, W. Y.Y. Cheng, W. Wu, T. T. Warner and K. Parks, 2009: Simulating intra-farm wind variations with the WRF-RTFDDA-LES modeling system. 10th WRF Users' Workshop, Boulder, C, USA. June 23 - 26, 2009. Skamarock, W., J. Dudhia, D.O. Gill, D.M. Barker, M.G.Duda, X-Y. Huang, W. Wang and J.G. Powers, A Description of the Advanced Research WRF version 3, NCAR Technical Note TN-475+STR, NCAR, Boulder, Colorado, 2008.
Vincent, Claire Louise; Liu, Yubao
In the summer of 2009, several scientific teams engaged in a field program in Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska to test an end-to-end atmosphere/ocean prediction system specially designed for this region. The "Sound Predictions Field Experiment" (FE) was a test of the PWS-Observing System (PWS-OS) and the culmination of a five-year program to develop an observational and prediction system for the Sound. This manuscript reports on results of an 18-day high-resolution atmospheric forecasting field project using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model.Special attention was paid to surface meteorological properties and precipitation. Upon reviewing the results of the real-time forecasts, modifications were incorporated in the PWS-WRF modeling system in an effort to improve objective forecast skill. Changes were both geometric (model grid structure) and physical (different physics parameterizations).The weather during the summer-time FE was typical of the PWS in that it was characterized by a number of minor disturbances rotating around an anchored low, but with no major storms in the Gulf of Alaska. The basic PWS-WRF modeling system as implemented operationally for the FE performed well, especially considering the extremely complex terrain comprising the greater PWS region.Modifications to the initial PWS-WRF modeling system showed improvement in predicting surface variables, especially where the ambient flow interacted strongly with the terrain. Prediction of precipitation on an accumulated basis was more accurate than prediction on a day-to-day basis. The 18-day period was too short to provide reliable assessment and intercomparison of the quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) skill of the PWS-WRF model variants.
Olsson, Peter Q.; Volz, Karl P.; Liu, Haibo
In the summer of 2009, several scientific teams engaged in a field program in Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska to test an end-to-end atmosphere/ocean prediction system specially designed for this region. The "Sound Predictions Field Experiment" (FE) was a test of the PWS-Observing System (PWS-OS) and the culmination of a five-year program to develop an observational and prediction system for the Sound. This manuscript reports on results of an 18-day high-resolution atmospheric forecasting field project using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Special attention was paid to surface meteorological properties and precipitation. Upon reviewing the results of the real-time forecasts, modifications were incorporated in the PWS-WRF modeling system in an effort to improve objective forecast skill. Changes were both geometric (model grid structure) and physical (different physics parameterizations). The weather during the summer-time FE was typical of the PWS in that it was characterized by a number of minor disturbances rotating around an anchored low, but with no major storms in the Gulf of Alaska. The basic PWS-WRF modeling system as implemented operationally for the FE performed well, especially considering the extremely complex terrain comprising the greater PWS region. Modifications to the initial PWS-WRF modeling system showed improvement in predicting surface variables, especially where the ambient flow interacted strongly with the terrain. Prediction of precipitation on an accumulated basis was more accurate than prediction on a day-to-day basis. The 18-day period was too short to provide reliable assessment and intercomparison of the quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) skill of the PWS-WRF model variants.
Olsson, Peter Q.; Volz, Karl P.; Liu, Haibo
This study aims to propose an approach which applies Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model forecasts and satellite rainfalls by Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) to physiographic inundation-drainage model for real-time flood forecasting. The study area is Dianbao River Basin in southern Taiwan, which is a low-relief area easily suffering flood disasters. Since the study area lacks reliable rainfall forecasting and inundation simulation models, the study proposes an approach to refine WRF model forecasts (abbreviated as WRFMFs hereafter) using satellite rainfalls by PERSIANN (abbreviated as PERSIANN rainfalls hereafter) for enhancing the inundation forecasts and prolonging the lead time. Twenty one sets of on-line WRFMFs under different hypothesized boundary conditions are provided by Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute. The WRFMFs with a spatial resolution of 5 km*5 km cover the extent of Taiwan (120°E~122°E, 22°N~25°N), which are issued for 72 hours ahead for every 6 hours. However, WRFMFs have a 6-hour delay and are quite different due to their different non-isolated boundary conditions. On the other hand, PERSIANN rainfalls provided by CHRS/UCI are based on the real-time satellite images and can provide real-time global rainfall estimation. Therefore, integrating WRFMFs and PERSIANN rainfalls may be a good approach to provide better rainfall forecasts. The main idea of this approach is to give different WRFMFs different weights by comparing to the PERSIANN rainfalls when a typhoon is formed in the open sea and approaching to Taiwan. Based on the 21 sets of WRFMFs, a pattern recognition method is used to compare the PERSIANN rainfalls to each of the 21 sets of WRFMFs during a same time period for every 6 hours. For example, at a present time (18:00) the WRFMFs are issued with a 6-hour delay from 12:00 for 72 hours ahead. The comparison between each of the 21 sets of WRFMFs and the PERSIANN rainfalls during the past 6 hours (12:00~18:00) is made. Based on the comparisons, 21 errors can be calculated for assigning the weights to the 21 sets of WRFMFs for the 66 hours ahead (herein, six hours ahead are adopted). A set of WRFMF with a smaller error is assigned to have a higher weight. Then, the ensemble approach for the 21 sets of WRFMFs with different weights is performed to obtain more reliable rainfall forecasts. Finally, the study uses physiographic inundation-drainage model for flood inundation simulation. This inundation-drainage model is a pseudo 2-D model which can reasonably simulate flood inundation under the condition of complex topography. By inputting the ensemble of WRFMFs, the inundation-drainage model can forecast the flood extent and depth with less computational time in the study area. These forecasted inundation information can be used to plot the flood inundation maps and help decision makers quickly identify the flood prone areas and make emergency preparedness in advance.
Kuo, C.; Chen, J.; Yang, T.; Lin, Y.; Wang, Y.; Hsu, K.; Sorooshian, S.; Lee, C.; Yu, P.
Five WRF configurations using different soil model, microphysics and planetary boundary layer parameterizations are compared with sounding data launched during a field campaign at APEX (Atacama Pathfinder EXperiment) site. The WRF model does a very good job forecasting PWV and temperature, wind speed and direction vertical profiles over the APEX site. Changes in microphysics parameterizations do not produce appreciable changes in humidity profiles. The Noah land surface model greatly improves the forecasts compared to the 5-layer thermal diffusion scheme. The analysis of daily synoptic conditions shows that difficulties in predicting the diurnal variation of wind direction in clear conditions and the occurrence of dry shallow layers in the atmosphere are some of the error sources in forecasts.
Caneo, M.; Pozo, D.; Illanes, L.; Curé, M.
Modeling flash flood events in arid environments is a difficult but important task that has impacts on both water resource related issues and also emergency management and response. The challenge is often related to adequately describing the precursor intense rainfall events that cause these flood responses, as they are generally poorly simulated and forecast. Jeddah, the second largest city in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, has suffered from a number of flash floods over the last decade, following short-intense rainfall events. The research presented here focuses on examining four historic Jeddah flash floods (Nov. 25-26 2009, Dec. 29-30 2010, Jan. 14-15 2011 and Jan. 25-26 2011) and investigates the feasibility of using numerical weather prediction models to achieve a more realistic simulation of these flood-producing rainfall events. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (version 3.5) is used to simulate precipitation and meteorological conditions via a high-resolution inner domain (1-km) around Jeddah. A range of different convective closure and microphysics parameterization, together with high-resolution (4-km) sea surface temperature data are employed. Through examining comparisons between the WRF model output and in-situ, radar and satellite data, the characteristics and mechanism producing the extreme rainfall events are discussed and the capacity of the WRF model to accurately forecast these rainstorms is evaluated.
Deng, L.; McCabe, M. F.; Stenchikov, G. L.; Evans, J. P.; Kucera, P. A.
Surface topography such as mountain barriers, existing water bodies and semi-permanent mountain glaciers changes large scale atmospheric patterns and creates a challenge for a reliable precipitation prediction. Eastern Black sea region of Turkey is an example. Black Sea Mountain chains lies west to east along the coastline with the average height of 2000 m and the highest point is 3973 m, and from the coastline to inland there is a very sharp topography change. For this project we select the Eastern Black Sea region of Turkey to assess precipitation forecast accuracy. This is a unique region of Turkey which receive both highest amount of precipitation and precipitation throughout whole year. Amount of rain and snow is important because they supply water to the main river systems of Turkey. Turkey is in general under the influence of both continental polar (Cp) and tropical air masses. Their interaction with the orography causes orographic precipitation being effective on the region. Also Caucasus Mountains, which is the highest point of Georgia, moderates the climate of the southern parts by not letting penetration of colder air masses from north. Southern part of the western Black Sea region has more continental climate because of the lee side effect of the mountains Therefore, precipitation forecast in the region is important for operational forecasters and researchers. Our aim in this project is to investigate WRF precipitation accuracy during 10 extreme precipitation, 10 normal precipitation and 10 no precipitation days by using forecast for two days ahead. Cases are selected in years between 2000 and 2003. Eleven Eastern Black Sea stations located along the coastline are used to determine 20 extreme and 10 average precipitation days. During project, three different resolutions with three nested domains are tested to determine the model sensivity to domain boundaries and resolution. As a result of our tests, 6 km resolution for finer domain was found suitable for our purpose. Also, sensivity tests were made for cumulus, PBL and microphysics schemes for single-day run. Initial conditions have been produced by using ERA-40 and ERA-Interim data. The precipitation results are compared with both NASA TRMM 3-hourly precipitation data and ground observation data obtained from Turkish State Meteorological Service. For case studies, model results were obtained from 72-hour simulations which has 6 hr interval. Preliminary results indicate that NASA TRMM 3-hourly precipitation data has errors and is not consistent for the area of interest. Furthermore, verification of model simulations with station data shows that model has underestimations and overestimations especially on 3 stations (Rize, Pazar and Hopa) which have more complex topography than the rest of the domain.
B?y?k, G.; Unal, Y.; Onol, B.
Forecasting how plumes of particles, such as radioactive particles from a nuclear disaster, will be transported and dispersed in the atmosphere is an important but computationally challenging task. During the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan, operational plume forecasts were produced each day, but as the emissions continued, previous emissions were not included in the simulations used for forecasts because it became impractical to rerun the simulations each day from the beginning of the accident. Draxler and Rolph examine whether it is possible to improve plume simulation speed and flexibility as conditions and input data change. The authors use a method known as a transfer coefficient matrix approach that allows them to simulate many radionuclides using only a few generic species for the computation. Their simulations work faster by dividing the computation into separate independent segments in such a way that the most computationally time consuming pieces of the calculation need to be done only once. This makes it possible to provide real-time operational plume forecasts by continuously updating the previous simulations as new data become available. They tested their method using data from the Fukushima incident to show that it performed well. (Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, doi:10.1029/2011JD017205, 2012)
The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model includes various configuration options related to physics parameters, which can affect the performance of the model. In this study, numerical experiments were conducted to determine the best combination of physics parameterization schemes for the simulation of sea surface temperatures, latent heat flux, sensible heat flux, precipitation rate, and wind speed that characterized typhoons. Through these experiments, several physics parameterization options within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were exhaustively tested for typhoon Noul, which originated in the South China Sea in November 2008. The model domain consisted of one coarse domain and one nested domain. The resolution of the coarse domain was 30 km, and that of the nested domain was 10 km. In this study, model simulation results were compared with the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data set. Comparisons between predicted and control data were made through the use of standard statistical measurements. The results facilitated the determination of the best combination of options suitable for predicting each physics parameter. Then, the suggested best combinations were examined for seven other typhoons and the solutions were confirmed. Finally, the best combination was compared with other introduced combinations for wind-speed prediction for typhoon Washi in 2011. The contribution of this study is to have attention to the heat fluxes besides the other parameters. The outcomes showed that the suggested combinations are comparable with the ones in the literature.
Haghroosta, T.; Ismail, W. R.; Ghafarian, P.; Barekati, S. M.
The recent very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS) ‘Nargis’ over the Bay of Bengal caused widespread destruction over Myanmar after hitting the coast on 2 May 2008. The real time forecasting of the VSCS ‘Nargis’ was a very difficult task as it did not follow the normal westerly/northwesterly track. In the present study, a detailed diagnostic analysis of the system ‘Nargis’ is carried out initially to investigate the features associated with this unusual movement and subsequently the real time forecast of VSCS ‘Nargis’ using high resolution advanced version weather research forecasting (WRF) model is presented. The advanced research WRF model was run for 72 h at 27 km and 20 km resolutions with 28, 29, 30 April and 1 May as the initial conditions. The diagnostic study indicates that the recurvature of the system ‘Nargis’ was mainly associated with: • upper level southerly/southwesterly steering wind at 200 hPa level associated with anticyclonic circulation over southeastern sector of the centre of the system
Pattanaik, D. R.; Rama Rao, Y. V.
Surface topography such as mountain barriers, existing water bodies and semi-permanent mountain glaciers changes large scale atmospheric patterns and creates a challenge for a reliable precipitation prediction. Eastern Black sea region of Turkey is an example. Black Sea Mountain chains lies west to east along the coastline with the average height of 2000 m and the highest point is 3973 m, and from the coastline to inland where there is a very sharp topography change. For this study we select the Eastern Black Sea region of Turkey to assess precipitation forecast accuracy. This is a unique region of Turkey which receives precipitation throughout whole year with highest amount of annual precipitation. Amount of rain and snow is important because they supply water to the main river systems of Turkey. Climate of Turkey is in general under the influence of both continental polar (Cp) and tropical air flows. Their interaction with the orography causes orographic precipitation. Also Caucasus Mountains, which is the highest point of Georgia, moderates the climate of the southern parts by not letting penetration of colder air from north. Southern part of the western Black Sea region has more continental climate because of the lee side effect of the mountains. In a very short distances, 24 hour total precipitation varies from 138.3 mm to 5.1 mm in a region. Therefore, precipitation forecast is important for operational forecasters and researchers. Our aim in this study is to investigate WRF precipitation accuracy during 10 extreme precipitation, 10 normal precipitation and 10 low precipitation days by using forecast of two days ahead. Eastern Black Sea stations located along the coastline are used to determine the dates of the events between 2000 and 2003. During this study, three different resolutions with three nested domains are tested to determine the model sensivity to the domain boundaries and resolution. As a result of our tests, 6 km resolution for finer domain was found suitable for our purposes. Also, sensivity tests were conducted for cumulus, PBL and microphysics schemes for single-day runs. Initial conditions of the model have been produced by using ERA-40 and for three extreme days after August 2002 with ERA-Interim data. The precipitation results are compared to both NASA TRMM 3-hourly precipitation data which is converted to 24 hour total precipitation and also ground observation data which are obtained from Turkish State Meteorological Service. Preliminary results indicate that NASA TRMM 3-hourly precipitation data are not consistent with the surface based observations at 30-42°N latitude bands. Therefore, verification of model simulations was performed by using station data only. Our results show that the model underestimates precipitation of extreme days and overestimates precipitation of normal precipitation days especially on 3 stations (Rize, Pazar and Hopa) which are located on more complex topography than the rest of the domain.
Biyik, Gokay; Unal, Yurdanur; Onol, Baris
The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is the next generation community mesoscale model designed to enhance collaboration between the research and operational sectors. The NM'S as a whole has begun a transition toward WRF as the mesoscale model of choice to use as a tool in making local forecasts. Currently, both the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) are running the Advanced Regional Prediction System (AIRPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) every 15 minutes over the Florida peninsula to produce high-resolution diagnostics supporting their daily operations. In addition, the NWS MLB and SMG have used ADAS to provide initial conditions for short-range forecasts from the ARPS numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. Both NM'S MLB and SMG have derived great benefit from the maturity of ADAS, and would like to use ADAS for providing initial conditions to WRF. In order to assist in this WRF transition effort, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) was tasked to configure and implement an operational version of WRF that uses output from ADAS for the model initial conditions. Both agencies asked the AMU to develop a framework that allows the ADAS initial conditions to be incorporated into the WRF Environmental Modeling System (EMS) software. Developed by the NM'S Science Operations Officer (S00) Science and Training Resource Center (STRC), the EMS is a complete, full physics, NWP package that incorporates dynamical cores from both the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction's Non-Hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) into a single end-to-end forecasting system. The EMS performs nearly all pre- and postprocessing and can be run automatically to obtain external grid data for WRF boundary conditions, run the model, and convert the data into a format that can be readily viewed within the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System. The EMS has also incorporated the WRF Standard Initialization (SI) graphical user interface (GUT), which allows the user to set up the domain, dynamical core, resolution, etc., with ease. In addition to the SI GUT, the EMS contains a number of configuration files with extensive documentation to help the user select the appropriate input parameters for model physics schemes, integration timesteps, etc. Therefore, because of its streamlined capability, it is quite advantageous to configure ADAS to provide initial condition data to the EMS software. One of the biggest potential benefits of configuring ADAS for ingest into the EMS is that the analyses could be used to initialize either the ARW or NMM. Currently, the ARPS/ADAS software has a conversion routine only for the ARW dynamical core. However, since the NIvIM runs about 2.5 times faster than the ARW, it is quite advantageous to be able to run an ADAS/NMM configuration operationally due to the increased efficiency.
Case, Jonathan; Blottman, Pete; Hoeth, Brian; Oram, Timothy
Previously reported methods of forecasting lightning threat using fields of graupel flux from WRF simulations are extended to include the simulated field of vertically integrated ice within storms. Although the ice integral shows less temporal variability than graupel flux, it provides more areal coverage, and can thus be used to create a lightning forecast that better matches the areal coverage of the lightning threat found in observations of flash extent density. A blended lightning forecast threat can be constructed that retains much of the desirable temporal sensitivity of the graupel flux method, while also incorporating the coverage benefits of the ice integral method. The graupel flux and ice integral fields contributing to the blended forecast are calibrated against observed lightning flash origin density data, based on Lightning Mapping Array observations from a series of case studies chosen to cover a wide range of flash rate conditions. Linear curve fits that pass through the origin are found to be statistically robust for the calibration procedures.
McCaul, E. W., jr.; Goodman, S. J.
Fire weather simulation skill by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over south, Australia. D Corresponding author. Email: email@example.com Abstract. The fire weather of south of the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) using probability density function skill scores, annual
A plume rise algorithm for wildfires was included in WRF-Chem, and applied to look at the impact of intense wildfires during the 2004 Alaska wildfire season on weather forecasts using model resolutions of 10km and 2km. Biomass burning emissions were estimated using a biomass burning emissions model. In addition, a 1-D, time-dependent cloud model was used online in WRF-Chem to estimate injection heights as well as the final emission rates. It was shown that with the inclusion of the intense wildfires of the 2004 fire season in the model simulations, the interaction of the aerosols with the atmospheric radiation led to significant modifications of vertical profiles of temperature and moisture in cloud-free areas. On the other hand, when clouds were present, the high concentrations of fine aerosol (PM2.5) and the resulting large numbers of Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) had a strong impact on clouds and microphysics, with decreased precipitation coverage and precipitation amounts during the first 12 hours of the integration, but significantly stronger storms during the afternoon hours.
Grell, G. A.; Freitas, Saulo; Stuefer, Martin; Fast, Jerome D.
Cloud cover is one of the most difficult meteorological variables to predict by weather forecasting meteorological models. However it is a very important element to determine because it has multiple applications, not only in weather forecasting but also in other issues as those related to renewable energy, and particularly to those related to solar radiation, as can be solar thermal or photovoltaic power, where the passage of a cloud across the fields of solar panels can reduced energy production. Cloudiness forecasting is clearly a challenge for this field, where we can achieve a significant reduction in production costs of this energy if an accurate cloud cover forecasting is available. The processes involved in the formation and organization of clouds and precipitation extend from physical and chemical processes involved in small-scale nucleation and growth of cloud particles to the large-scale dynamic processes that are associated with synoptic weather systems. It is important to consider an appropriate scale, not only in determining the effects of a particular phenomenon but also in planning experimental campaigns. The objective of this work is to analyze the ability of the a mesoscale prediction model (WRF) to simulate cloud cover for three different days of the BLLAST 2011 field campaign, recently performed at the south of France, near the Pyrenees: a day with clear skies, an overcast day, and finally a day with clouds of evolution including some scattered showers. Sensitivity experiments using different PBL, Microphysics and Cumulus parameterizations have been carried out, and the simulations have been analyzed in order to establish the best configuration to accurate forecast the cloudiness and meteorological variables associated to it (T2m, longwave and shortwave incoming radiation at surface).
González-Zamora, Ángel; Yagüe, Carlos; Román-Cascon, Carlos; Sastre, Mariano
Established in 1756 the Demarcated Douro Region, became the first viticulturist region to be delimited and regulated under worldwide scale. The region has an area of 250000 hectares, from which 45000 are occupied by continuous vineyards (IVDP, 2010). It stretches along the Douro river valleys and its main streams, from the region of Mesão Frio, about 100 kilometers east from Porto town where this river discharges till attaining the frontier with Spain in the east border. Due to its stretching and extension in the W-E direction accompanying the Douro Valley, it is not strange that the region is not homogeneous having, therefore, three sub-regions: Baixo Corgo, Cima Corgo and Douro Superior. The Baixo Corgo the most western region is the "birthplace" of the viticulturalist region. The main purpose of this work is to evaluate and test the quality of a criterion developed to determine the occurrence of frost. This criterion is to be used latter by numerical weather forecasts (WRF-ARW) and put into practice in 16 meteorological stations in the Demarcated Douro Region. Firstly, the criterion was developed to calculate the occurrence of frost based on the meteorological data observed in those 16 stations. Time series of temperatures and precipitation were used for a period of approximately 20 years. It was verified that the meteorological conditions associated to days with frost (SG) and without frost (CG) are different in each station. Afterwards, the model was validated, especially in what concerns the simulation of the daily minimal temperature. Correcting functions were applied to the data of the model, having considerably diminished the errors of simulation. Then the criterion of frost estimate was applied do the output of the model for a period of 2 frost seasons. The results show that WRF simulates successfully the appearance of frost episodes and so can be used in the frost forecasting.
Rodrigues, Mónica; Rocha, Alfredo; Monteiro, Ana
The NASA Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) Model is an effort to unify several WRF variants developed at NASA and bring together NASA's existing earth science models and assimilation systems that simulate the interaction among clouds, aerosols, atmospheric gases, precipitation, and land surfaces. By developing NU-WRF, the NASA modeling community expects to: (1) facilitate better use of WRF for scientific research, (2) reduce redundancy in major WRF development, (3) prolong the serviceable life span of WRF, and (4) allow better use of NASA high-resolution satellite data for short term climate and weather research. This project involves multiple teams from different organizations and the research goals are still evolving. As a result, software engineering best practices are needed for software life-cycle management and testing, and to ensure reliability of the data being generated. NASA software engineers and scientists have worked together to develop software requirements, scientific use cases, automated regression tests, software release plans, and a revision control system. Nightly automated regression tests are being used on scaled-down versions of the use cases to test if any code changes have unintentionally changed the science results or made the software unstable. Revision control management is needed to track software changes that are made by the many developers involved in the project. The release planning helps to guide the release of NU-WRF versions to the NASA community and allows for making strategic changes in delivery dates and software features as needed. The team of software engineers and scientists have also worked on optimizing, generalizing, and testing existing model preprocessing codes and run scripts for the various models. Finally, the team developed model coupling tools to link WRF with NASA earth science models. NU-WRF 1.0 was based on WRF3.1.1 and was released to the NASA community in July 2010, providing the researchers with a flexible, robust weather and climate modeling system with which to carry out their research. In this paper, we will discuss the software engineering practices used to develop NU-WRF and share some lessons learned.
Burns, R.; Zhou, S.; Syed, R.
High-resolution weather forecasting is affected by many aspects, i.e. model initial conditions, subgrid-scale cumulus convection and cloud microphysics schemes. Recent 12km grid studies using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model have identified the importance of incorporating subgrid-scale cloud radiation interactions using the Kain-Fritsch (KF) and Rapid Radiation Transfer Model Global schemes. However, it is still unclear to what extent the KF convection scheme could be modified to improve high resolution precipitation forecasts with the WRF model. In this numerical study, we have made several changes to the KF scheme (i.e. inclusion of subgrid-scale cloud radiation interactions, a dynamic adjustment timescale, cloud updraft mass fluxes impact on grid-scale vertical velocity and a LCL-based entrainment methodology). These science updates introduce scale dependency for some of these parameters in KF scheme and makes the upgraded KF scheme usable at 9km and 3km grid resolutions in the WRF-ARW 3.4.1. The WRF model convection forecast experiments are performed over US Southern Great Plains in 2002 summer, during which the International H2O Project (IHOP 2002) measurements are used for model forecast validations. The evaluation also uses MET tool which is widely used for model performances to provide some statistical verification. Results indicate that (1) the initial conditions play a key role in the high resolution weather forecasting; and (2) our modified KF scheme is able to alleviate the excessive precipitation in 9km resolution and improve the precipitation forecasts in 3km resolution simulations.
Zheng, Y.; Alapaty, K. V.; Kumar, A.; Niyogi, D. S.
The aim for this research is to evaluate the ability of the offline linkage of Weather Research & Forecasting Model (WRF) and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model to produce hydrological, e.g. evaporation (ET), soil moisture (SM), runoff, and baseflow. First, the VIC model was run by using observed meteorological data and calibrated in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) from 1980 to 2010. Subsequently, a simulation based on an offline linkage of WRF and VIC was performed in the UMRB with the calibrated parameters established above from 2006 to 2009. Standard measured meteorological inputs to VIC were replaced by WRF meteorological variables. A spatiotemporal comparison of offline simulated ET, SM, runoff, and baseflow produced by the VIC calibrated run (base data) and by the offline linkage run was conducted. The results showed that the offline linkage of VIC with WRF was able to achieve good agreement in the simulation of monthly and daily soil moisture, and monthly evaporation. This suggests the VIC linkage should function without causing a large change in the moisture budget. However, the offline linkage showed most disagreement in daily and monthly runoff, and baseflow which is related to errors in WRF precipitation.
Tang, Chunling; Dennis, Robin L.
A Real-Time Air Quality Forecast (RT-AQF) system that is based on a three-dimensional air quality model provides a powerful tool to forecast air quality and advise the public with proper preventive actions. In this work, a new RT-AQF system is developed based on the online-coupled Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF/Chem) with the Model of Aerosol Dynamics, Reaction, Ionization, and Dissolution (MADRID) (referred to as WRF/Chem-MADRID) and deployed in the southeastern U.S. during May-September, 2009. Max 1-h and 8-h average ozone (O 3) and 24-h average fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) are evaluated against surface observations from the AIRNow database in terms of spatial distribution, temporal variation, and domain-wide and region-specific discrete and categorical performance statistics. WRF/Chem-MADRID demonstrates good forecasting skill that is consistent with current RT-AQF models. The overpredictions of O 3 and underprediction of PM 2.5 are likely due to uncertainties in emissions such as those of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) and ammonia, inaccuracies in simulated meteorological variables such as 2-m temperature, 10-m wind speed, and precipitation, and uncertainties in the boundary conditions. Sensitivity simulations show that the use of the online BVOC emissions can improve PM 2.5 forecast in areas with high BVOC emissions and adjusting lateral boundaries can improve domain-wide O 3 and PM 2.5 predictions. Several limitations and uncertainties are identified to further improve the model's forecasting skill.
Chuang, Ming-Tung; Zhang, Yang; Kang, Daiwen
Climate information can be used as guidance for a range of weather-dependent operations. This module summarizes the Climate Analysis Process, a series of steps for determining which climatological products and data will be most useful for a specified application. The Climate Analysis Process is followed in the context of preparing a climatological brief for a ship deployment across multiple ocean basins. Though the focus is on Department of Defense data sources, including the Advanced Climate Analysis and Forecasting (ACAF) system, information on other sources is also provided. Products from the various sources are used to assemble a final climatological brief relevant to naval operations.
This module provides insights on how to best use WRF mesoscale model guidance in the forecast process. Using two cases in southwest Asia where AFWA WRF is currently in use, it examines improvements offered by the WRF for forecasting fronts, topographic impacts, precipitation type, and hazards to aviation. The module also discusses some mesoscale model limitations, and offers strategies for transitioning between using mesoscale and global NWP guidance for medium-range forecasts, even when the models differ significantly.
A plume rise algorithm for wildfires was included in WRF-Chem, and applied to look at the impact of intense wildfires during the 2004 Alaska wildfire season on weather simulations using model resolutions of 10 km and 2 km. Biomass burning emissions were estimated using a biomass burning emissions model. In addition a 1-D time dependent cloud model was used online
G. Grell; S. R. Freitas; M. Stuefer; J. Fast
Meteorological models, like WRF, usually describe the earth surface characteristics by tables that are function of land-use. The roughness length (z0) is an example of such approach. However, over sea z0 is modeled by the Charnock (1955) relation, linking the surface friction velocity u*2 with the roughness length z0 of turbulent air flow, z0 = ?-u2* g The Charnock coefficient ? may be considered a measure of roughness. For the sea surface, WRF considers a constant roughness ? = 0.0185. However, there is evidence that sea surface roughness should depend on wave energy (Donelan, 1982). Spectral wave models like WAM, model the evolution and propagation of wave energy as a function of wind, and include a richer sea surface roughness description. Coupling WRF and WAM is thus a common way to improve the sea surface roughness description of WRF. WAM is a third generation wave model, solving the equation of advection of wave energy subject to input/output terms of: wind growth, energy dissipation and resonant non-linear wave-wave interactions. Third generation models work on the spectral domain. WAM considers the Charnock coefficient ? a complex yet known function of the total wind input term, which depends on the wind velocity and on the Charnock coefficient again. This is solved iteratively (Janssen et al., 1990). Coupling of meteorological and wave models through a common Charnock coefficient is operationally done in medium-range met forecasting systems (e.g., at ECMWF) though the impact of coupling for smaller domains is not yet clearly assessed (Warner et al, 2010). It is unclear to which extent the additional effort of coupling improves the local wind and wave fields, in comparison to the effects of other factors, like e.g. a better bathymetry and relief resolution, or a better circulation information which might have its influence on local-scale meteorological processes (local wind jets, local convection, daily marine wind regimes, etc.). This work, within the scope of the 7th EU FP Project FIELD_AC, assesses the impact of coupling WAM and WRF on wind and wave forecasts on the Balearic Sea, and compares it with other possible improvements, like using available high-resolution circulation information from MyOcean GMES core services, or assimilating altimeter data on the Western Mediterranean. This is done in an ordered fashion following statistical design rules, which allows to extract main effects of each of the factors considered (coupling, better circulation information, data assimilation following Lionello et al., 1992) as well as two-factor interactions. Moreover, the statistical significance of these improvements can be tested in the future, though this requires maximum likelihood ratio tests with correlated data. Charnock, H. (1955) Wind stress on a water surface. Quart.J. Row. Met. Soc. 81: 639-640 Donelan, M. (1982) The dependence of aerodynamic drag coefficient on wave parameters. Proc. 1st Int. Conf. on Meteorology and Air-Sea Interactions of teh Coastal Zone. The Hague (Netherlands). AMS. 381-387 Janssen, P.A.E.M., Doyle, J., Bidlot, J., Hansen, B., Isaksen, L. and Viterbo, P. (1990) The impact of oean waves on the atmosphere. Seminars of the ECMWF. Lionello, P., Günther, H., and Janssen P.A.E.M. (1992) Assimilation of altimeter data in a global third-generation wave model. Journal of Geophysical Research 97 (C9): 453-474. Warner, J., Armstrong, B., He, R. and Zambon, J.B. (2010) Development of a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) Modeling System. Ocean Modelling 35: 230-244.
Tolosana-Delgado, R.; Soret, A.; Jorba, O.; Baldasano, J. M.; Sánchez-Arcilla, A.
Local topography has considerable effects on the dynamics of low-level winds. Many wind farms take advantage of the local landscape when deciding where to place their turbines. In this study we attempt to better model these unique local features by representing them more accurately. The current default WRF topography has a maximum resolution of 30 arc seconds which at mid-latitudes is roughly 1 kilometer whereas the USGS database currently covers 95% of the United States at 30 meter resolution. In this study the 1/3 arc second national elevation database (NED13) is interfaced with the WRF model using a tool developed specifically to make this process simple and the effects of modeling with the updated topography are investigated.
Beechler, B. E.; Zupanski, D.
A plume rise algorithm for wildfires was included in WRF-Chem, and applied to look at the impact of intense wildfires during the 2004 Alaska wildfire season on weather simulations using model resolutions of 10 km and 2 km. Biomass burning emissions were estimated using a biomass burning emissions model. In addition, a 1-D, time-dependent cloud model was used online in
G. A. Grell; Saulo Freitas; Martin Stuefer; Jerome D. Fast
There is a growing interest on physical and biogeochemical oceanic hindcasts and forecasts from a wide range of users and businesses. In this contribution we present an operational biogeochemical forecast system for the Portuguese and Galician oceanographic regions, where atmospheric, hydrodynamic and biogeochemical variables are integrated. The ocean model ROMS, with a horizontal resolution of 3 km, is forced by the atmospheric model WRF and includes a NPZD biogeochemical module. In addition to oceanographic variables, the system predicts the concentration of nitrate, phytoplankton, zooplankton and detritus (mmolN m-3). Model results are compared against radar currents and remote sensed SST and chlorophyll. Quantitative skill assessment during a summer upwelling period shows that our modelling system adequately represents the surface circulation over the shelf including the observed spatial variability and trends of temperature and chlorophyll concentration. Additionally, the skill assessment also shows some deficiencies like the overestimation of upwelling circulation and consequently, of the duration and intensity of the phytoplankton blooms. These and other departures from the observations are discussed, their origins identified and future improvements suggested. The forecast system is the first of its kind in the region and provides free online distribution of model input and output, as well as comparisons of model results with satellite imagery for qualitative operational assessment of model skill.
Marta-Almeida, M.; Reboreda, R.; Rocha, C.; Dubert, J.; Nolasco, R.; Cordeiro, N.; Luna, T.; Rocha, A.; Silva, J. Lencart e.; Queiroga, H.; Peliz, A.; Ruiz-Villarreal, M.
A parameterization scheme used at the European Centre for Medium Range Forecasting to model the average growth of the difference between forecasts on consecutive days was extended by including the effect of error growth on forecast model deficiencies. Error was defined as the difference between the forecast and analysis fields during the verification time. Systematic and random errors were considered separately in calculating the error variance for a 10 day operational forecast. A good fit was obtained with measured forecast errors and a satisfactory trend was achieved in the difference between forecasts. Fitting six parameters to forecast errors and differences that were performed separately for each wavenumber revealed that the error growth rate grew with wavenumber. The saturation error decreased with the total wavenumber and the limit of predictability, i.e., when error variance reaches 95 percent of saturation, decreased monotonically with the total wavenumber.
Kalnay, E.; Dalcher, A.
A plume rise algorithm for wildfires was included in WRF-Chem, and applied to look at the impact of intense wildfires during the 2004 Alaska wildfire season on weather simulations using model resolutions of 10 km and 2 km. Biomass burning emissions were estimated using a biomass burning emissions model. In addition a 1-D time dependent cloud model was used online in WRF-Chem to estimate injection heights as well as the final emission rates. It was shown that with the inclusion of the intense wildfires of the 2004 fire season in the model simulations the interaction of the aerosols with the atmospheric radiation lead to significant modifications of vertical profiles of temperature and moisture in cloud-free areas. On the other hand, when clouds were present, the high concentrations of fine aerosol (PM2.5) and the resulting large numbers of Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) had a strong impact on clouds and microphysics, with decreased precipitation coverage and precipitation amounts during the first 12 h of the integration, but significantly stronger storms during the afternoon hours.
Grell, G.; Freitas, S. R.; Stuefer, M.; Fast, J.
A plume rise algorithm for wildfires was included in WRF-Chem, and applied to look at the impact of intense wildfires during the 2004 Alaska wildfire season on weather simulations using model resolutions of 10 km and 2 km. Biomass burning emissions were estimated using a biomass burning emissions model. In addition, a 1-D, time-dependent cloud model was used online in WRF-Chem to estimate injection heights as well as the vertical distribution of the emission rates. It was shown that with the inclusion of the intense wildfires of the 2004 fire season in the model simulations, the interaction of the aerosols with the atmospheric radiation led to significant modifications of vertical profiles of temperature and moisture in cloud-free areas. On the other hand, when clouds were present, the high concentrations of fine aerosol (PM2.5) and the resulting large numbers of Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) had a strong impact on clouds and cloud microphysics, with decreased precipitation coverage and precipitation amounts during the first 12 h of the integration. During the afternoon, storms were of convective nature and appeared significantly stronger, probably as a result of both the interaction of aerosols with radiation (through an increase in CAPE) as well as the interaction with cloud microphysics.
Grell, G.; Freitas, S. R.; Stuefer, M.; Fast, J.
Seasonal streamflow forecasts contingent on climate information are essential for short-term planning and for setting up contingency measures during extreme years. Similarly, monthly updates of streamflow forecasts are useful in quantifying surplus and shortfall in addressing the change in streamflow potential during the season. In this study, an operational streamflow forecasts for managing the Angat Reservoir System, Philippines, is developed
S. Arumugam; U. Lall
An attempt is made to evaluate the impact of Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) radial velocity and reflectivity in Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-3D variational data assimilation (3DVAR) system for prediction of Bay of Bengal (BoB) monsoon depressions (MDs). Few numerical experiments are carried out to examine the individual impact of the DWR radial velocity and the reflectivity as well as collectively along with Global Telecommunication System (GTS) observations over the Indian monsoon region. The averaged 12 and 24 h forecast errors for wind, temperature and moisture at different pressure levels are analyzed. This evidently explains that the assimilation of radial velocity and reflectivity collectively enhanced the performance of the WRF-3DVAR system over the Indian region. After identifying the optimal combination of DWR data, this study has also investigated the impact of assimilation of Indian DWR radial velocity and reflectivity data on simulation of the four different summer MDs that occurred over BoB. For this study, three numerical experiments (control no assimilation, with GTS and GTS along with DWR) are carried out to evaluate the impact of DWR data on simulation of MDs. The results of the study indicate that the assimilation of DWR data has a positive impact on the prediction of the location, propagation and development of rain bands associated with the MDs. The simulated meteorological parameters and tracks of the MDs are reasonably improved after assimilation of DWR observations as compared to the other experiments. The root mean square errors (RMSE) of wind fields at different pressure levels, equitable skill score and frequency bias are significantly improved in the assimilation experiments mainly in DWR assimilation experiment for all MD cases. The mean Vector Displacement Errors (VDEs) are significantly decreased due to the assimilation of DWR observations as compared to the CNTL and 3DV_GTS experiments. The study clearly suggests that the performance of the model simulation for the intense convective system which influences the large scale monsoonal flow is significantly improved after assimilation of the Indian DWR data from even one coastal locale within the MDs track.
Routray, Ashish; Mohanty, U. C.; Osuri, Krishna K.; Kiran Prasad, S.
Conditional non-linear optimal perturbation (CNOP), which is a natural extension of the linear singular vector into the non-linear regime, has been suggested to identify data-sensitive regions in the adaptive observation strategy. CNOP is the global maximum of a cost function, whereas, local CNOP is the local maximum of the cost function if the local maximum exists. The potential application of CNOPs to tropical cyclone adaptive observation is researched. The CNOPs and the first singular vector (FSV) are numerically obtained by a spectral projected gradient algorithm with the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model. This paper examines two tropical cyclone cases, a fast straight moving typhoon Matsa (2005) and a slow moving recurving typhoon Shanshan (2006). The CNOPs and FSVs are obtained using the norms of background error at initial time and total dry energy at final time with a 36-h optimization time interval. The spatial structures of CNOPs, their energies, non-linear evolutions and impacts on track simulations are compared with those of the FSVs. The results show that both the CNOPs and the FSVs are localized, and evolve into the verification area at the final time with the upscale growth of perturbations. However, the CNOPs are different from the FSVs in spatial patterns, wind maximum distribution, growth rate of energy and impact on track simulation. Compared to FSV, CNOP and local CNOP have greater impact on the forecast in the verification region at the final time in terms of total energy, and have larger, at least similar impact on track simulation too. This indicates the CNOP method with constraint of the norm of background error at initial time and total energy norm at final time is a reasonable candidate in tropical cyclone adaptive observation. Therefore, both CNOP and local CNOP are suggested to be considered in tropical cyclone adaptive observation.
Wang, Hongli; Mu, Mu; Huang, Xiang-Yu
We included a volcanic emission and plume model into the Weather Research Forecast Model with inline Chemistry (WRF-Chem). The volcanic emission model with WRF-Chem has been tested and evaluated with historic eruptions, and the volcanic application was included into the official release of WRF-Chem beginning with WRF version 3.3 in 2011. Operational volcanic WRF-Chem runs have been developed using different domains centered on main volcanoes of the Aleutian chain and Popocatépetl Volcano, Mexico. The Global Forecast System (GFS) is used for the meteorological initialization of WRF-Chem, and default eruption source parameters serve as initial source data for the runs. We report on the model setup, and the advantages to treat the volcanic ash and sulphur dioxide emissions inline within the numerical weather prediction model. In addition we outline possibilities to initialize WRF-Chem with a fully automated algorithm to retrieve volcanic ash cloud properties from satellite data. WRF-Chem runs from recent volcanic eruptions resulted in atmospheric ash loadings, which compared well with the satellite data taking into account that satellite retrieval data represent only a limited amount of the actually emitted source due to detection thresholds. In addition particle aggregative effects are not included in the WRF-Chem model to date.
Stuefer, Martin; Egan, Sean; Webley, Peter; Grell, Georg; Freitas, Saulo; Pavolonis, Mike; Dehn, Jonathan
Integrated, interdisciplinary crop performance forecasting systems, linked with appropriate decision and discussion support tools, could substantially improve operational decision making in agricultural management. Recent developments in connecting numerical weather prediction models and general circulation models with quantitative crop growth models offer the potential for development of integrated systems that incorporate components of long-term climate change. However, operational seasonal forecasting systems have little or no value unless they are able to change key management decisions. Changed decision making through incorporation of seasonal forecasting ultimately has to demonstrate improved long-term performance of the cropping enterprise. Simulation analyses conducted on specific production scenarios are especially useful in improving decisions, particularly if this is done in conjunction with development of decision-support systems and associated facilitated discussion groups. Improved management of the overall crop production system requires an interdisciplinary approach, where climate scientists, agricultural scientists and extension specialists are intimately linked with crop production managers in the development of targeted seasonal forecast systems. The same principle applies in developing improved operational management systems for commodity trading organizations, milling companies and agricultural marketing organizations. Application of seasonal forecast systems across the whole value chain in agricultural production offers considerable benefits in improving overall operational management of agricultural production. PMID:16433097
Stone, Roger C; Meinke, Holger
The Galician coast (NW Iberian Peninsula coast) and mainly the Rias Baixas (southern Galician rias) are one of the most productive ecosystems in the world, supporting a very active fishing and aquiculture industry. This high productivity lives together with a high human pressure and an intense maritime traffic, which means an important environmental risk. Besides that, Harmful Algae Blooms (HAB) are common in this area, producing important economical losses in aquiculture. In this context, the development of an Operational Hydrodynamic Ocean Forecast System is the first step to the development of a more sophisticated Ocean Integrated Decision Support Tool. A regional oceanographic forecasting system in the Galician Coast has been developed by MeteoGalicia (the Galician regional meteorological agency) inside ESEOO project to provide forecasts on currents, sea level, water temperature and salinity. This system is based on hydrodynamic model MOHID, forced with the operational meteorological model WRF, supported daily at MeteoGalicia . Two grid meshes are running nested at different scales, one of ~2km at the shelf scale and the other one with a resolution of 500 m at the rias scale. ESEOAT (Puertos del Estado) model provide salinity and temperature fields which are relaxed at all depth along the open boundary of the regional model (~6km). Temperature and salinity initial fields are also obtained from this application. Freshwater input from main rivers are included as forcing in MOHID model. Monthly mean discharge data from gauge station have been provided by Aguas de Galicia. Nowadays a coupling between an hydrological model (SWAT) and the hydrodynamic one are in development with the aim to verify the impact of the rivers discharges. The system runs operationally daily, providing two days of forecast. First model verifications had been performed against Puertos del Estado buoys and Xunta de Galicia buoys network along the Galician coast. High resolution model results were validated against a CTDs profiles campaign carried out during an oil spill exercise in the Ria de Vigo in April 2007. During EROCIPS INTERREG IIIB and EASY INTERREG IVB projects, a Galician oceanographic observation network were built. Three stations located inside the Rias Baixas allow to collect meteorological and oceanographic data at different depths to calibrate and validate the modelization of the rias. To complete this network and to create a common data platform a new project emerged (RAIA INTERREG IVA). It will provide MeteoGalicia more scientific data to improve the study of the rias. Furthermore, MeteoGalicia is also involved in DRIFTER AMPERA project which allows to improve the capability of modelling and monitoring the trajectory of hazardous substances and inerts.
Balseiro, C. F.; Carracedo, P.; Pérez, E.; Pérez, V.; Taboada, J.; Venacio, A.; Vilasa, L.
Ocean current prediction is an important and a challenging task on marine operational forecasting system. This has been a widely developed subject in recent year internationally. The system can provide information to various applications, i.e. coastal structure design, environment management, navigation operation, fishery and recreations. Another potential application of the current prediction is to provide information for marine rescue and emergency response. Through the aid from high performance computing techniques, ocean current forecasting can be efficiently operated within a feasible time by covering a wider domain of operation and with higher resolution. A multi-scale Regional Ocean Current Forecast Operational System (ROCFOS) is developed at Central Weather Bureau (CWB), Taiwan, since 2008. The system has coupled 4 different scales of model domains together, from the Pacific to the seas around Taiwan. The modeling system has been constructed based on ROMS and SELFE and implemented for daily operation. The system is re-initialized with HYCOM and RTOFS daily forecast and driven by meteorological predictions from NCEP GFS and WRF developed at CWB. Satellite data from GHRSST and AVISO are used the calibration and the verification of model results. An NCAR/ncl tool was also developed to process both structured and unstructured data. The modeling system and the analysis of the operational results will be presented.
Yu, Hao-Cheng; Yu, Jason C. S.; Chu, Chi-Hao; Teyr, Terng-Chuen
At present a new underground part of Zurich main station is under construction. For this purpose the runoff capacity of river Sihl, which is passing beneath the main station, is reduced by 40%. If a flood is to occur the construction site is evacuated and gates can be opened for full runoff capacity to prevent bigger damages. However, flooding the construction site, even if it is controlled, is coupled with costs and retardation. The evacuation of the construction site at Zurich main station takes about 2 to 4 hours and opening the gates takes another 1 to 2 hours each. In the upper part of the 336 km2 Sihl catchment the Sihl lake, a reservoir lake, is situated. It belongs and is used by the Swiss Railway Company for hydropower production. This lake can act as a retention basin for about 46% of the Sihl catchment. Lowering the lake level to gain retention capacity, and therewith safety, is coupled with direct loss for the Railway Company. To calculate the needed retention volume and the water to be released facing unfavourable weather conditions, forecasts with a minimum lead time of 2 to 3 days are needed. Since the catchment is rather small, this can only be realised by the use of meteorological forecast data. Thus the management of the construction site depends on accurate forecasts to base their decisions on. Therefore an operational hydrological ensemble prediction system (HEPS) was introduced in September 2008 by the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL). It delivers daily discharge forecasts with a time horizon of 5 days. The meteorological forecasts are provided by MeteoSwiss and stem from the operational limited-area COSMO-LEPS which downscales the ECMWF ensemble prediction system to a spatial resolution of 7 km. Additional meteorological data for model calibration and initialisation (air temperature, precipitation, water vapour pressure, global radiation, wind speed and sunshine duration) and radar data are also provided by MeteoSwiss. Additional meteorological and hydrological observations are provided by a hydropower company, the Canton of Zurich and the Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN). The hydrological forecasting is calculated by the semi-distributed hydrological model PREVAH (Precipitation-Runoff-EVapotranspiration-HRU-related Model) and is further processed by the hydraulic model FLORIS. Finally the forecasts and alerts along with additional meteorological and hydrological observations and forecasts from collaborating institution are sent to a webserver accessible for decision makers. We will document the setup of our operational flood forecasting system, evaluate its performance and show how the collaboration and communication between science and practice, including all the different interests, works for this particular example.
Liechti, Katharina; Jaun, Simon; Zappa, Massimiliano
The European Commission (EC) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US-EPA) have shown great concerns to understand the transport and dynamics of pollutants in the atmosphere. According to the European directives (1996/62/EC, 2002/3/EC, 2008/50/EC), air quality modeling, if accurately applied, is a useful tool to understand the dynamics of air pollutants, to analyze and forecast the air quality, and to develop programs reducing emissions and alert the population when health-related issues occur. The CALIOPE project, funded by the Spanish Ministry of the Environment, has the main objective to establish an air quality forecasting system for Spain. A partnership of four research institutions composes the CALIOPE project: the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), the center of investigation CIEMAT, the Earth Sciences Institute ‘Jaume Almera’ (IJA-CSIC) and the CEAM Foundation. CALIOPE will become the official Spanish air quality operational system. This contribution focuses on the recent developments and implementation of the integrated modelling system for the Iberian Peninsula (IP) and Canary Islands (CI) with a high spatial and temporal resolution (4x4 sq. km for IP and 2x2 sq. km for CI, 1 hour), namely WRF-ARW/HERMES04/CMAQ/BSC-DREAM. The HERMES04 emission model has been specifically developed as a high-resolution (1x1 sq. km, 1 hour) emission model for Spain. It includes biogenic and anthropogenic emissions such as on-road and paved-road resuspension production, power plant generation, ship and plane traffic, airports and ports activities, industrial and agricultural sectors as well as domestic and commercial emissions. The qualitative and quantitative evaluation of the model was performed for a reference year (2004) using data from ground-based measurement networks. The products of the CALIOPE system will provide 24h and 48h forecasts for O3, NO2, SO2, CO, PM10 and PM2.5 at surface level. An operational evaluation system has been developed to provide near real-time evaluation products for the Spanish territory. For this purpose, more than 130 surface stations, 2 ozonesondes and the OMI satellite retrieval information are introduced to the system on a daily basis. A web-based visualization system allows a straightforward access to all the evaluation products. The present contribution will describe the main characteristics of the operational system and results of the operational evaluation.
Baldasano, J. M.; Piot, M.; Jorba, O.; Goncalves, M.; Pay, M.; Pirez, C.; Lopez, E.; Gasso, S.; Martin, F.; García-Vivanco, M.; Palomino, I.; Querol, X.; Pandolfi, M.; Dieguez, J. J.; Padilla, L.
The Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB) Operational Forecast System provided by NOAA supplies information on the location, extent, and potential for development or movement of harmful algal blooms in the Gulf of Mexico. The forecasting system relies on satellite imagery, field observations, and buoy data to provide the large spatial scale and high frequency of observations required to assess bloom location and movements. Conditions are posted to this web page twice a week during the HAB season. Additional analysis is included in the HAB Bulletin that is provided to state and local resource managers in the region. The web page includes links to the HAB bulletin, available mapping systems, contributors, and other HAB resources.
Wind Power Forecasting andWind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations Audun Botterud://www.dis.anl.gov/projects/windpowerforecasting.html IAWind 2010 Ames, IA, April 6, 2010 #12;Outline Background Using wind power forecasts in market operations Â Current status in U.S. markets Â Handling uncertainties in system operations Â Wind power
COLLIER LEE PASCO MONROE MANATEE CHARLOTTE SARASOTA PINELLAS NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps 0 5 102.5 Miles #12 N Collier N Charlotte S Charlotte NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest
The Experimental Regional Ensemble Forecast (ExREF) system is a tool for the development and testing of new Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) methodologies. ExREF is run in near-realtime by the Global Systems Division (GSD) of the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) and its products are made available through a website, an ftp site, and via the Unidata Local Data Manager (LDM). The ExREF domain covers most of North America and has 9-km horizontal grid spacing. The ensemble has eight members, all employing WRF-ARW. The ensemble uses a variety of initial conditions from LAPS and the Global Forecasting System (GFS) and multiple boundary conditions from the GFS ensemble. Additionally, a diversity of physical parameterizations is used to increase ensemble spread and to account for the uncertainty in forecasting extreme precipitation events. ExREF has been a component of the Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) NWP suite in the 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 winters. A smaller domain covering just the West Coast was created to minimize band-width consumption for the NWS. This smaller domain has and is being distributed to the National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Office and California Nevada River Forecast Center in Sacramento, California, where it is ingested into the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS I and II) to provide guidance on the forecasting of extreme precipitation events. This paper will review the cooperative effort employed by NOAA ESRL, NASA SPoRT (Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center), and the NWS to facilitate the ingest and display of ExREF data utilizing the AWIPS I and II D2D and GFE (Graphical Software Editor) software. Within GFE is a very useful verification software package called BoiVer that allows the NWS to utilize the River Forecast Center's 4 km gridded QPE to compare with all operational NWP models 6-hr QPF along with the ExREF mean 6-hr QPF so the forecasters can build confidence in the use of the ExREF in preparing their rainfall forecasts. Preliminary results will be presented.
Reynolds, David; Rasch, William; Kozlowski, Daniel; Burks, Jason; Zavodsky, Bradley; Bernardet, Ligia; Jankov, Isidora; Albers, Steve
Forecasts that directly affect society are produced by a cascade of natural processes time series models and water management decisions. Seasonal climate predictions are at the top of this cascade, but their importance is not obvious. At the bottom of the cascade are the models that influence water management and energy generation decisions -- this is the level at which the societal benefits are realized most directly. Climate predictions are stochastic and additional uncertainties and errors are introduced at each step in the cascade of models. Metrological parameters such as temperature, precipitation, wind, and solar radiation affect the loads on power systems, the thermal and hydro power generation schedules, and the consequent reservoir and river operations required to protect instream ecological systems. These outcomes are managed by predictive models of one type or another, each with limitations in model formulation and ancillary data. It is not obvious that water management might realize large benefits from seasonal climate forecasts. A suite of models is used to illustrate how decisions are made for hydroelectric operations and discusses the benefits that might be expected from improvements in hydrologic forecasting.
Two Intensive Observation Periods (IOPs) from the HYdrological cycle in Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX) have been studied here. IOP6 and IOP13 were dedicated to the documentation of heavy precipitation events over target areas in northern Italy. In both cases convection in the Po Valley was also observed, but in each case there was a distinct difference in the ability to reproduce the observations by most of the models available during the campaign. In particular the WRF model was able to reproduce correctly IOP13, whereas it failed in maintaining the squall line moving west to east along the Po Valley during IOP6. A parallel analysis of the two events highlights differences in the dynamics that are critical in determining conditions favorable for convection along the Po Valley. A basic difference is that the trough in IOP6 produced much stronger downslope winds in the lee of the Alpine barrier than it did in IOP13. A comparison with observations from different sources allowed the identification of the models overestimation of the zonal wind in the Po Valley as the main cause of convection suppression during IOP6. Sensitivity tests to the planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization show similar results for most of the WRF PBL schemes. However, an improvement in the wind forecast is produced if the Bougeault-Lacarrére scheme is used, thus restoring realistic conditions along the Po Valley that allow for a better simulation of the convective system in IOP6.
Pichelli, Emanuela; Rotunno, Richard; Ferretti, Rossella
We cannot yet predict large earthquakes in the short term with much reliability and skill, but the strong clustering exhibited in seismic sequences tells us that earthquake probabilities are not constant in time; they generally rise and fall over periods of days to years in correlation with nearby seismic activity. Operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) is the dissemination of authoritative information about these time?dependent probabilities to help communities prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes. The goal of OEF is to inform the decisions that people and organizations must continually make to mitigate seismic risk and prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes on time scales from days to decades. To fulfill this role, OEF must provide a complete description of the seismic hazard—ground?motion exceedance probabilities as well as short?term rupture probabilities—in concert with the long?term forecasts of probabilistic seismic?hazard analysis (PSHA).
Jordan, T.H.; Marzocchi, W.; Michael, A.J.; Gerstenberger, M.C.
This lesson illustrates how numerical guidance from the Weather Research and Forecasting Model - Environmental Modeling System (WRF-EMS) can be added to surface observations, satellite graphics, and conceptual models of important aviation phenomena, to produce TAFs. Specifically, the lesson describes how visibility, cloud ceilings, and the flight categories variables provide values for aviation forecasts in Africa.
Inaccurate forecasts represent a major source of risk in road and toll projects because they could result in financial difficulties or even bankruptcy. This paper focuses on demand and operating cost forecasting accuracy for Norwegian toll projects by comparing the forecasted and actual levels of traffic and operating costs. The differences among the types of projects and the effects of
1 Weighted Parametric Operational Hydrology Forecasting Thomas E. Croley II1 1 Great Lakes forecasts in operational hydrology builds a sample of possibilities for the future, of climate series from-parametric method can be extended into a new weighted parametric hydrological forecasting technique to allow
Advances in weather forecasting, hydrologic modeling, and hydro-climatic teleconnection relationships have significantly improved streamflow forecast precision and lead-time. The advances provide great opportunities to improve the operation rules of water resources systems, for example, updating reservoir operation curves using long-term forecast, or even replacing operation rules by real-time optimization and simulation models utilizing various streamflow forecast products. However, incorporation of forecast for real-time optimization of reservoir operation needs more understanding of the forecast uncertainty (FU) evolution with forecast horizon (FH, the advance time of a forecast) and the complicating effect of FU and FH. Increasing horizon may provide more information for decision making in a long time framework but with increasing error and less reliable information. This presentation addresses the challenges on the use of hydrologic forecast for real-time reservoir operations through the following two particular studies: 1) Evaluating the effectiveness of the various hydrological forecast products for reservoir operation with an explicit simulation of dynamic evolution of uncertainties involved in those products. A hypothetical example shows that optimal reservoir operation varies with the hydrologic forecast products. The utility of the reservoir operation with ensemble or probabilistic streamflow forecast (with a probabilistic uncertainty distribution) is the highest compared to deterministic streamflow forecast (DSF) with the forecast uncertainty represented in the form of deterministic forecast errors and DSF-based probabilistic streamflow forecast with the forecast uncertainty represented by a conditional distribution of forecast uncertainty for a given DSF. 2) Identifying an effective forecast horizon (EFH) under a limited inflow forecast considering the complicating effect of FH and FU, as well as streamflow variability and reservoir characteristics. The complicating effect is illustrated and it is shown that 1) when FH is short, the reservoir needs more information to regulate the inflow and FH is the dominating factor; 2) when FH is long, the inflow information may be too uncertain to guide reservoir operation decisions and FU becomes the dominating factor; 3) at a medium FH with sufficient inflow information and an acceptable uncertainty, the effective forecast horizon (EFH) can be located. The length of EFH is short with a high FU but it depends on the reservoir capacity and inflow variability. Thus, with a given forecast technology available, an EFH exists and it can be obtained through Monte-Carlo simulations with forecast uncertainty and inflow variability statistical characteristics.
Zhao, T.; Cai, X.; Zhao, J.
Various natural disasters are caused by high-intensity events, for example: extreme rainfall can in a short time cause major damage in river catchments, storms can cause havoc in coastal areas. To assist emergency response teams in operational decisions, it's important to have reliable information and predictions as soon as possible. This starts before the event by providing early warnings about imminent risks and estimated probabilities of possible scenarios. In the context of various applications worldwide, Deltares has developed an open and highly configurable forecasting and early warning system: Delft-FEWS. Finding the right balance between simulation time (and hence prediction lead time) and simulation accuracy and detail is challenging. Model resolution may be crucial to capture certain critical physical processes. Uncertainty in forcing conditions may require running large ensembles of models; data assimilation techniques may require additional ensembles and repeated simulations. The computational demand is steadily increasing and data streams become bigger. Using HPC resources is a logical step; in different settings Delft-FEWS has been configured to take advantage of distributed computational resources available to improve and accelerate the forecasting process (e.g. Montanari et al, 2006). We will illustrate the system by means of a couple of practical applications including the real-time dynamic forecasting of wind driven waves, flow of water, and wave overtopping at dikes of Lake IJssel and neighboring lakes in the center of The Netherlands. Montanari et al., 2006. Development of an ensemble flood forecasting system for the Po river basin, First MAP D-PHASE Scientific Meeting, 6-8 November 2006, Vienna, Austria.
Jagers, H. R. A.; Genseberger, M.; van den Broek, M. A. F. H.
The Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) is the region of the atmosphere that suffers the direct influence of surface processes and the evolution of their characteristics during the day is of great importance for the pollutants dispersion. The aim of the present work is to analyze the most efficient combination of PBL, cumulus convection and cloud microphysics parameterizations for the forecast of the vertical profile of wind speed over Metropolitan Region of São Paulo (MRSP) that presents serious problems of atmospheric pollution. The model used was the WRF/Chem that was integrated for 48 h forecasts during one week of observational experiment that take place in the MRSP during October-November of 2006. The model domain has 72 x 48 grid points, with 18 km of resolution, centered in the MRSP. Considering a mixed-physics ensemble approach the forecasts used a combination of the parameterizations: (a) PBL the schemes of Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) and Yonsei University Scheme (YSU); (b) cumulus convections schemes of Grell-Devenyi ensemble (GDE) and Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ); (c) cloud microphysics schemes of Purdue Lin (MPL) and NCEP 5-class (MPN). The combinations tested were the following: MYJ-BMJ-MPL, MYJ-BMJ-MPN, MYJ-GDE-MPL, MYJ-GDE-MPN, YSU-BMJ-MPL, YSU-BMJ-MPN, YSU-GDE-MPL, YSU-GDE-MPN, i.e., a set of 8 previsions for day. The model initial and boundary conditions was obtained of the AVN-NCEP model. Besides this data set, the MRSP observed soundings were used to verify the WRF results. The statistical analysis considered the correlation coefficient, root mean square error, mean error between forecasts and observed wind profiles. The results showed that the most suitable combination is the YSU-GDE-MPL. This can be associated to the GDE cumulus convection scheme, which takes into consideration the entrainment process in the clouds, and also the MPL scheme that considers a larger number of classes of water phase, including the ice and mixed phases. For PBL the YSU presents the better approaches to represent the wind speed, where the atmospheric gradients are stronger and the atmosphere is less mixed.
Silva Junior, R. S.; Rocha, R. P.; Andrade, M. F.
Space weather's effects upon the near-Earth environment are due to dynamic changes in the energy transfer processes from the Sun's photons, particles, and fields. Of the space environment domains that are affected by space weather, the ionosphere, thermosphere, and even troposphere are key regions that are affected. The Utah State University (USU) Space Weather Center (SWC) and Space Environment Technologies (SET) are developing and producing commercial space weather applications. Key systems for providing timely information about the effects of space weather are SWC's Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) system, SET's Magnetosphere Alert and Prediction System (MAPS), and SET's Automated Radiation Measurements for Aviation Safety (ARMAS) system. GAIM, operated by SWC, improves real-time communication and navigation systems by continuously ingesting up to 10,000 slant TEC measurements every 15-minutes from approximately 500 stations. Ionosonde data from several dozen global stations is ingested every 15 minutes to improve the vertical profiles within GAIM. These operational runs enable the reporting of global radio high frequency (HF) signal strengths and near vertical incidence skywave (NVIS) maps used by amateur radio operators and emergency responders via the http://q-upnow.com website. MAPS provides a forecast Dst index out to 6 days through the data-driven Anemomilos algorithm. Anemomilos uses observational proxies for the magnitude, location, and velocity of solar ejecta events. This forecast index is used by satellite operations to characterize upcoming geomagnetic storms, for example. ARMAS is demonstrating a prototype flight of microdosimeters on aircraft to capture the "weather" of the radiation environment for air-crew and passenger safety. It assimilates real-time radiation dose and dose rate data into the global NAIRAS radiation system to correct the global climatology for more accurate radiation fields along flight tracks. This team also provides the space weather smartphone app called SpaceWx for iPhone, iPad, iPod, and Android for professional users and public space weather education. SpaceWx displays the real-time solar, heliosphere, magnetosphere, thermosphere, and ionosphere drivers to changes in the total electron content, for example, as well as global NVIS maps. We describe recent forecasting advances for moving space weather information through automated systems into operational, derivative products for communications, aviation, and satellite operations uses.
Tobiska, W.; Schunk, R. W.; Sojka, J. J.; Carlson, H. C.; Gardner, L. C.; Scherliess, L.; Zhu, L.; Eccles, J. V.; Rice, D. D.; Bouwer, D.; Bailey, J. J.; Knipp, D. J.; Blake, J. B.; Rex, J.; Fuschino, R.; Mertens, C. J.; Gersey, B.; Wilkins, R.; Atwell, W.
A verification study for an operational ocean forecasting system that uses the quasi- geostrophic version of the Harvard Open Ocean Model as its dynamical model com- ponent is presented. The study is designed to test the ability of both the model and the system to perform 1-week duration forecasts in the Gulf Stream Meander and Ring region. The forecast system
Scott M. Glenn; Allan R. Robinson
An awareness of the likely future behavior of a batch or a fed-batch fermentation process is valuable information that can be exploited to improve product consistency and maximize profitability. For example, by making operational policy changes in a feedforward control sense, improved consistency can be facilitated, while prior knowledge of batch productivity, or the end time, can help determine the downstream processing configuration and upstream process scheduling. In this article, forecasting methods based on multivariate batch statistical data analysis procedures are contrasted with case-based reasoning (CBR). Additionally, the importance of appropriate statistical data prescreening and the choice of a suitable metric for case selection are investigated. Two industrial case studies are considered, a fed-batch pharmaceutical fermentation and a batch beer fermentation process. It is demonstrated that, following appropriate statistical prescreening of the data, in terms of forecasting performance, CBR is comparable to linear projection to latent structures (PLS), for the more straightforward problem, i.e., the batch beer fermentation, while for the more complex case-the pharmaceutical process-CBR exhibits enhanced performance over PLS. PMID:19194911
Montague, Gary A; Martin, Elaine B; O'Malley, Christopher J
This web page offers a module on polar satellite meteorology which provides an overview of the current operational polar orbiting environmental satellites (POES) and a small sample of the many meteorological products and their uses in operational weather forecasting. The module begins with a comparison of key polar orbiting environmental satellites and geostationary operational environmental satellite (GOES) characteristics and capabilities. Next, an overview of instrument configurations and their respective meteorological observing capabilities onboard both civilian and military spacecraft is presented. A preview of polar orbiting environmental satellite imagery and selected products is included. A history offers a closer look at the development of civilian and military meteorological polar orbiting environmental satellites in the United States from the very first flight of a polar orbiter in April of 1960. Content assumes student has at least an undergraduate background in basic atmospheric or environmental science and physics. A self-test is provided at the end of the module to help the student evaluate what he or she has learned by completing this module.
Coupled atmosphere-fire models can now generate forecasts in real time, owing to recent advances in computational capabilities. WRF-SFIRE consists of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the fire-spread model SFIRE. This paper presents new developments, which were introduced as a response to the needs of the community interested in operational testing of WRF-SFIRE. These developments include a fuel-moisture model and a fuel-moisture-data-assimilation system based on the Remote Automated Weather Stations (RAWS) observations, allowing for fire simulations across landscapes and time scales of varying fuel-moisture conditions. The paper also describes the implementation of a coupling with the atmospheric chemistry and aerosol schemes in WRF-Chem, which allows for a simulation of smoke dispersion and effects of fires on air quality. There is also a data-assimilation method, which provides the capability of starting the fire simulations from an observed fire perimeter, instead of an ignition point. Finally, an example of operational deployment in Israel, utilizing some of the new visualization and data-management tools, is presented.
Mandel, J.; Amram, S.; Beezley, J. D.; Kelman, G.; Kochanski, A. K.; Kondratenko, V. Y.; Lynn, B. H.; Regev, B.; Vejmelka, M.
With rare exceptions, current operational ensemble weather and hydrologic forecast systems require a final post-processing step to steer the forecast products towards satisfying the twin constraints of greater reliability while retaining (or enhancing) forecast sharpness. Such post-processing of model output can be viewed as an extension of the modeling effort itself, such as in the case of under-dispersive ensemble forecasts, where post-processing of the ensemble dispersion can implicitly account for missing scales of variability or mis-representation of physical processes. Over the last decade a number of different approaches have emerged that show consistent utility in calibrating ensembles derived from a variety of forecasting systems. In this work we compare and contrast four such approaches under differing operational constraints (e.g. data size limitations): logistic regression, an analogue approach, Bayesian model averaging, and quantile regression. The setting for this study is the Climate Forecasting Applications for Bangladesh (CFAB) forecast system, which over the last decade has been providing operational probabilistic forecasts of severe flooding of the Brahmaputra and Ganges Rivers as part of a humanitarian effort to mitigate the impacts of these events on the country of Bangladesh. The flood forecasting system developed utilizes weather forecast uncertainty information provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble weather forecasts, rain gauge and satellite-derived precipitation estimates from NASA and NOAA, along with near-real-time river stage observations provided by the Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre of Bangladesh. This paper will discuss both the results of the post-processing comparison study more generally, and also within the unique context of this ongoing flood forecasting effort for Bangladesh.
Hopson, T. M.; Webster, P. J.; Wood, A. W.
Ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts have been developed and issued by National Weather Service (NWS) staff at River Forecast Centers (RFCs) for many years. Used principally for long-range water supply forecasts, only the uncertainty associated with weather and climate have been traditionally considered. As technology and societal expectations of resource managers increase, the use and desire for risk-based decision support tools has also increased. These tools require forecast information that includes reliable uncertainty estimates across all time and space domains. The development of reliable uncertainty estimates associated with hydrologic forecasts is being actively pursued within the United States and internationally. This presentation will describe the challenges, components, and requirements for operational hydrologic ensemble-based forecasts from the perspective of a NOAA/NWS River Forecast Center.
Hartman, R. K.
on a three-dimensional air quality model provides a powerful tool to forecast air quality and advise, inaccuracies in simulated meteorological variables such as 2-m temperature, 10-m wind speed, and precipitation government agencies to take preventive steps such as temporarily shutting off major emission sources
In late September 1985, the first global scale spectral ocean wave forecasting model designed to provide forecast guidance was placed in an experimental, operational mode at the National Meteorological Center (NMC) in Washington, D.C. The numerical model generates 72 hour forecasts of wave elevation directional frequency spectra in 360 components, and summary statistics at approximately 5000 sea grid points between70degS
Determination of wind speeds at the hub height of wind turbines is an important focus of wind energy studies. Standard extrapolation methods are unable to accurately estimate 50-m winds from standard 10-m winds under stable conditions. Modeling of winds is an alternative. Daily numerical simulations from December 2011-November 2012 have been conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) to evaluate its potential for determining wind speeds at hub height. Model simulations have been validated with data collected at the University of Wyoming Wind Tower (UWT). WRF was superior to operational models in predicting 10-m wind speeds at surface stations and at the UWT. Results from WRF also showed that biases are present; WRF tends to overestimate winds during low-wind events and underestimate winds during high-wind events. WRF has demonstrated skill in hub height wind forecasts for Wyoming that can be of use for wind farm planning and operation.
The production of hydrological forecasts generally involves the selection of model(s) and setup, calibration and initialization, verification and updating, generation and evaluation of forecasts. Although, field data are commonly used to calibrate and initiate hydrological models, technological advancements have allowed the use of additional information, i.e. remote sensing data and meteorological ensemble forecasts, to improve hydrological forecasts. However, the precision of hydrological forecasts is often subject to uncertainty related to various components of the production chain and data used. The Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) operationally produces hydrological medium-range forecasts in Sweden using two modeling systems based on the HBV and S-HYPE hydrological models. The hydrological forecasts use both deterministic and ensemble (in total 51 ensemble members which are further reduced to 5 statistical members; 2, 25, 50, 75, 98% percentiles) meteorological forecasts from ECMWF to add information on the uncertainty of the predicted values. In this study, we evaluate the performance of the two operational hydrological forecasting systems and identify typical uncertainties in the forecasting production chain and ways to reduce them. In particular, we investigate the effect of autoregressive updating of the forecasted discharge, and of using the median of the ensemble instead of deterministic forecasts. Medium-range (10 days) hydrological forecasts across 71 selected indicator stations are used. The Kling-Gupta Efficiency and its decomposed terms are used to analyse the performance in different characteristics of the flow signal. Results show that the HBV and S-HYPE models with AR updating are both capable of producing adequate forecasts for a short lead time (1 to 2 days), and the performance steadily decreases in lead time. The autoregressive updating method can improve the performance of the two systems by 30 to 40% in terms of the KGE. This is mainly because the method has a significant impact on the improvement of discharge volume. S-HYPE seems to perform slightly better than HBV in the longer lead time, probably because the S-HYPE system is capable of updating the lake water level, which has an impact on the longer lead times. Moreover, the deterministic and ensemble HBV systems with AR updating perform fairly similar for all lead times. Keywords: Hydrological forecasting, S-HYPE, HBV, Operational production, Kling-Gupta Efficiency, Uncertainty.
Pechlivanidis, Ilias; Bosshard, Thomas; Spångmyr, Henrik; Lindström, Göran; Olsson, Jonas; Arheimer, Berit
In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) is coupled with the Advanced Canopy-Atmosphere-Soil Algorithm (ACASA), a high complexity land surface model. Although WRF is a state-of-the-art regional ...
Like most other water supply utilities, New York City's Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) has operational challenges associated with drought and wet weather events. During drought conditions, DEP must maintain water supply reliability to 9 million customers as well as meet environmental release requirements downstream of its reservoirs. During and after wet weather events, DEP must maintain turbidity compliance in its unfiltered Catskill and Delaware reservoir systems and minimize spills to mitigate downstream flooding. Proactive reservoir management - such as release restrictions to prepare for a drought or preventative drawdown in advance of a large storm - can alleviate negative impacts associated with extreme events. It is important for water managers to understand the risks associated with proactive operations so unintended consequences such as endangering water supply reliability with excessive drawdown prior to a storm event are minimized. Probabilistic hydrologic forecasts are a critical tool in quantifying these risks and allow water managers to make more informed operational decisions. DEP has recently completed development of an Operations Support Tool (OST) that integrates ensemble streamflow forecasts, real-time observations, and a reservoir system operations model into a user-friendly graphical interface that allows its water managers to take robust and defensible proactive measures in the face of challenging system conditions. Since initial development of OST was first presented at the 2011 AGU Fall Meeting, significant improvements have been made to the forecast system. First, the monthly AR1 forecasts ('Hirsch method') were upgraded with a generalized linear model (GLM) utilizing historical daily correlations ('Extended Hirsch method' or 'eHirsch'). The development of eHirsch forecasts improved predictive skill over the Hirsch method in the first week to a month from the forecast date and produced more realistic hydrographs on the tail end of high flow periods. These improvements allowed DEP to more effectively manage water quality control and spill mitigation operations immediately after storm events. Later on, post-processed hydrologic forecasts from the National Weather Service (NWS) including the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) and the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) were implemented into OST. These forecasts further increased the predictive skill over the initial statistical models as current basin conditions (e.g. soil moisture, snowpack) and meteorological forecasts (with HEFS) are now explicitly represented. With the post-processed HEFS forecasts, DEP may now truly quantify impacts associated with wet weather events on the horizon, rather than relying on statistical representations of current hydrologic trends. This presentation will highlight the benefits of the improved forecasts using examples from actual system operations.
Wang, L.; Weiss, W. J.; Porter, J.; Schaake, J. C.; Day, G. N.; Sheer, D. P.
Forecasts of available wind energy resources at high spatial resolution enable users to site wind turbines in optimal locations, to forecast available resources for integration into power grids, to schedule maintenance on wind energy facilities, and to define design criteria for next-generation turbines. This array of research needs implies that an appropriate forecasting tool must be able to account for mesoscale processes like frontal passages, surface-atmosphere interactions inducing local-scale circulations, and the microscale effects of atmospheric stability such as breaking Kelvin-Helmholtz billows. This range of scales and processes demands a mesoscale model with large-eddy simulation (LES) capabilities which can also account for varying atmospheric stability. Numerical weather prediction models, such as the Weather and Research Forecasting model (WRF), excel at predicting synoptic and mesoscale phenomena. With grid spacings of less than 1 km (as is often required for wind energy applications), however, the limits of WRF's subfilter scale (SFS) turbulence parameterizations are exposed, and fundamental problems arise, associated with modeling the scales of motion between those which LES can represent and those for which large-scale PBL parameterizations apply. To address these issues, we have implemented significant modifications to the ARW core of the Weather Research and Forecasting model, including the Nonlinear Backscatter model with Anisotropy (NBA) SFS model following Kosovic (1997) and an explicit filtering and reconstruction technique to compute the Resolvable Subfilter-Scale (RSFS) stresses (following Chow et al, 2005).We are also modifying WRF's terrain-following coordinate system by implementing an immersed boundary method (IBM) approach to account for the effects of complex terrain. Companion papers presenting idealized simulations with NBA-RSFS-WRF (Mirocha et al.) and IBM-WRF (K. A. Lundquist et al.) are also presented. Observations of flow through the Altamont Pass (Northern California) wind farm are available for validation of the WRF modeling tool for wind energy applications. In this presentation, we use these data to evaluate simulations using the NBA-RSFS-WRF tool in multiple configurations. We vary nesting capabilities, multiple levels of RSFS reconstruction, SFS turbulence models (the new NBA turbulence model versus existing WRF SFS turbulence models) to illustrate the capabilities of the modeling tool and to prioritize recommendations for operational uses. Nested simulations which capture both significant mesoscale processes as well as local-scale stable boundary layer effects are required to effectively predict available wind resources at turbine height.
Lundquist, J K; Mirocha, J D; Chow, F K; Kosovic, B; Lundquist, K A
The performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)/Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) system in the eastern United States is analyzed based on results from a seven-year modeling study with a 4-km spatial resolution. For 2-m temperature, the monthly averaged mean bias (MB) and gross error (GE) values are generally within the recommended performance criteria, although temperature is over-predicted with MB values up to 2K. Water vapor at 2-m is well-predicted but significant biases (>2 g kg(-1)) were observed in wintertime. Predictions for wind speed are satisfactory but biased towards over-prediction with 0 Zhang, Hongliang; Chen, Gang; Hu, Jianlin; Chen, Shu-Hua; Wiedinmyer, Christine; Kleeman, Michael; Ying, Qi 2014-03-01
Zhang, Hongliang; Chen, Gang; Hu, Jianlin; Chen, Shu-Hua; Wiedinmyer, Christine; Kleeman, Michael; Ying, Qi
Various hydrological forecast products have been applied to real-time reservoir operation, including deterministic streamflow forecast (DSF), DSF-based probabilistic streamflow forecast (DPSF), and ensemble streamflow forecast (ESF), which represent forecast uncertainty in the form of deterministic forecast error, deterministic forecast error-based uncertainty distribution, and ensemble forecast errors, respectively. Compared to previous studies that treat these forecast products as ad hoc inputs for reservoir operation models, this paper attempts to model the uncertainties involved in the various forecast products and explores their effect on real-time reservoir operation decisions. In hydrology, there are various indices reflecting the magnitude of streamflow forecast uncertainty; meanwhile, few models illustrate the forecast uncertainty evolution process. This research introduces Martingale Model of Forecast Evolution (MMFE) from supply chain management and justifies its assumptions for quantifying the evolution of uncertainty in streamflow forecast as time progresses. Based on MMFE, this research simulates the evolution of forecast uncertainty in DSF, DPSF, and ESF, and applies the reservoir operation models (dynamic programming, DP; stochastic dynamic programming, SDP; and standard operation policy, SOP) to assess the effect of different forms of forecast uncertainty on real-time reservoir operation. Through a hypothetical single-objective real-time reservoir operation model, the results illustrate that forecast uncertainty exerts significant effects. Reservoir operation efficiency, as measured by a utility function, decreases as the forecast uncertainty increases. Meanwhile, these effects also depend on the type of forecast product being used. In general, the utility of reservoir operation with ESF is nearly as high as the utility obtained with a perfect forecast; the utilities of DSF and DPSF are similar to each other but not as efficient as ESF. Moreover, streamflow variability and reservoir capacity can change the magnitude of the effects of forecast uncertainty, but not the relative merit of DSF, DPSF, and ESF. Schematic diagram of the increase in forecast uncertainty with forecast lead-time and the dynamic updating property of real-time streamflow forecast
Zhao, T.; Cai, X.; Yang, D.
NOAA has accepted a new tsunami forecast method in operational use to predict tsunami flooding, amplitudes and other tsunami parameters in real-time, while tsunami is still propagating. The method (called Short-term Inundation Forecast for Tsunamis -- SIFT) uses DART real-time data to improve the accuracy of coastal tsunami forecast, when compared with just the seismic data-based assessment. The main goal of the forecast system is to forecast flooding due to tsunami wave at specific coastal locations. Other tsunami parameters are also computed to estimate overall hazard at a given location for a specific tsunami event. Knowing the accuracy of the forecast is extremely important for making right decisions throughout tsunami warnings procedures. During operational testing of the system a comprehensive analysis of accuracy of the system has been performed. The presentation will present the accuracy analysis of the tsunami forecast and implications for future development and improvements of tsunami forecasting.The rapid development of computing technology allowed us to look into the tsunami impact caused by above hypotheses using high-resolution models with large coverage of Pacific Northwest. With the slab model of MaCrory et al. (2012) (as part of the USGS slab 1.0 model) for the Cascadia earthquake, we tested the above hypotheses to assess the tsunami hazards along the entire U.S. West Coast. The modeled results indicate these hypothetical scenarios may cause runup heights very similar to those observed along Japan's coastline during the 2011 Japan tsunami,. Comparing to a long rupture, the Tohoku-type rupture may cause more serious impact at the adjacent coastline, independent of where it would occur in the Cascadia subduction zone. These findings imply that the Cascadia tsunami hazard may be greater than originally thought.
0 20 4010 Miles NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Texas Forecast Region Maps to Sargent BCH NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Texas Forecast Region Maps 0 5 102 Matagorda Is. San Jose Is. Aransas Pass to PINS Matagorda Peninsula NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational
The objective of this NASA MSFC and NOAA CSTAR funded study is to develop and test operational forecast algorithms for the prediction of lightning initiation utilizing the C-band dual-polarimetric radar, UAHuntsville's Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR). Although there is a rich research history of radar signatures associated with lightning initiation, few studies have utilized dual-polarimetric radar signatures (e.g., Z(sub dr) columns) and capabilities (e.g., fuzzy-logic particle identification [PID] of precipitation ice) in an operational algorithm for first flash forecasting. The specific goal of this study is to develop and test polarimetric techniques that enhance the performance of current operational radar reflectivity based first flash algorithms. Improving lightning watch and warning performance will positively impact personnel safety in both work and leisure environments. Advanced warnings can provide space shuttle launch managers time to respond appropriately to secure equipment and personnel, while they can also provide appropriate warnings for spectators and players of leisure sporting events to seek safe shelter. Through the analysis of eight case dates, consisting of 35 pulse-type thunderstorms and 20 non-thunderstorm case studies, lightning initiation forecast techniques were developed and tested. The hypothesis is that the additional dual-polarimetric information could potentially reduce false alarms while maintaining high probability of detection and increasing lead-time for the prediction of the first lightning flash relative to reflectivity-only based techniques. To test the hypothesis, various physically-based techniques using polarimetric variables and/or PID categories, which are strongly correlated to initial storm electrification (e.g., large precipitation ice production via drop freezing), were benchmarked against the operational reflectivity-only based approaches to find the best compromise between forecast skill and lead-time. Forecast skill is determined by statistical analysis of probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), Operational Utility Index (OUI), and critical success index (CSI).
Woodard, Crystal J.; Carey, L. D.; Petersen, W. A.; Roeder, W. P.
and water vapour movement and the development of a satellite-based transparency index. This report presents of the Movement Algorithm and Development of a Transparency Index Final report to European Southern Observatories 1. Background 1 2. Maintenance of the operational forecasts 1 3. Revision of the movement algorithm
Delaying the date of maximum flood control drawdown at large storage reservoirs will provide benefits to ecosystem health, power generation, and water supply reliability. This project focuses on using climate-based information to extend predictions of spring runoff to lead times greater than 10 days. Current operation within the Columbia River storage system relies on static rule curves for flood management.
A global Real-Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS) was implemented in operations at NCEP/NWS/NOAA on 10/25/2011. This system is based on an eddy resolving 1/12 degree global HYCOM (HYbrid Coordinates Ocean Model) and is part of a larger national backbone capability of ocean modeling at NWS in strong partnership with US Navy. The forecast system is run once a day and produces a 6 day long forecast using the daily initialization fields produced at NAVOCEANO using NCODA (Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation), a 3D multi-variate data assimilation methodology. As configured within RTOFS, HYCOM has a horizontal equatorial resolution of 0.08 degrees or ~9 km. The HYCOM grid is on a Mercator projection from 78.64 S to 47 N and north of this it employs an Arctic dipole patch where the poles are shifted over land to avoid a singularity at the North Pole. This gives a mid-latitude (polar) horizontal resolution of approximately 7 km (3.5 km). The coastline is fixed at 10 m isobath with open Bering Straits. This version employs 32 hybrid vertical coordinate surfaces with potential density referenced to 2000 m. Vertical coordinates can be isopycnals, often best for resolving deep water masses, levels of equal pressure (fixed depths), best for the well mixed unstratified upper ocean and sigma-levels (terrain-following), often the best choice in shallow water. The dynamic ocean model is coupled to a thermodynamic energy loan ice model and uses a non-slab mixed layer formulation. The forecast system is forced with 3-hourly momentum, radiation and precipitation fluxes from the operational Global Forecast System (GFS) fields. Results include global sea surface height and three dimensional fields of temperature, salinity, density and velocity fields used for validation and evaluation against available observations. Several downstream applications of this forecast system will also be discussed which include search and rescue operations at US Coast Guard, navigation safety information provided by OPC using real time ocean model guidance from Global RTOFS surface ocean currents, operational guidance on radionuclide dispersion near Fukushima using 3D tracers, boundary conditions for various operational coastal ocean forecast systems (COFS) run by NOS etc.
Mehra, A.; Tolman, H. L.; Rivin, I.; Rajan, B.; Spindler, T.; Garraffo, Z. D.; Kim, H.
Examples of operational procedures are given to assist users of the satellites freeze forecasting system (SFFS) in logging in on to the computer, executing the programs in the menu, logging off the computer, and setting up the automatic system. Directions are also given for displaying, acquiring, and listing satellite maps; for communicating via terminal and monitor displays; and for what to do when the SFFS doesn't work. Administrative procedures are included.
Martsolf, J. D. (principal investigator)
In recent years, graphics processing units (GPUs) have emerged as a low-cost, low-power and a very high performance alternative to conventional central processing units (CPUs). The latest GPUs offer a speedup of two-to-three orders of magnitude over CPU for various science and engineering applications. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is the latest-generation numerical weather prediction model. It has been designed to serve both operational forecasting and atmospheric research needs. It proves useful for a broad spectrum of applications for domain scales ranging from meters to hundreds of kilometers. WRF computes an approximate solution to the differential equations which govern the air motion of the whole atmosphere. Kessler microphysics module in WRF is a simple warm cloud scheme that includes water vapor, cloud water and rain. Microphysics processes which are modeled are rain production, fall and evaporation. The accretion and auto-conversion of cloud water processes are also included along with the production of cloud water from condensation. In this paper, we develop an efficient WRF Kessler microphysics scheme which runs on Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) using the NVIDIA Compute Unified Device Architecture (CUDA). The GPU-based implementation of Kessler microphysics scheme achieves a significant speedup of 70× over its CPU based single-threaded counterpart. When a 4 GPU system is used, we achieve an overall speedup of 132× as compared to the single thread CPU version.
Mielikainen, Jarno; Huang, Bormin; Wang, Jun; Allen Huang, H.-L.; Goldberg, Mitchell D.
Various hydrological forecast products have been applied to real-time reservoir operation, including deterministic streamflow forecast ( DSF), DSF-based probabilistic streamflow forecast ( pseudo-PSF, pPSF), and ensemble or probabilistic streamflow forecast (denoted as real-PSF, rPSF). DSF represents forecast uncertainty in the form of deterministic forecast errors, pPSF a conditional distribution of forecast uncertainty for a given DSF, and rPSF a probabilistic uncertainty distribution. Compared to previous studies that treat the forecast products as ad hoc inputs for reservoir operation models, this paper attempts to model the dynamic evolution of uncertainties involved in the various forecast products and explores their effect on real-time reservoir operation decisions. Through a hypothetical example of a single-objective real-time reservoir operation model, the results illustrate that forecast uncertainty exerts significant effects. Reservoir operation efficiency, as measured by a utility function, decreases as the forecast uncertainty increases but the magnitude depends on the forecast products used. In general, the utility of the reservoir operation with rPSF is nearly as high as the utility obtained with a perfect forecast. Meanwhile, the utilities of DSF and pPSF are similar to each other but not as high as rPSF. Moreover, streamflow variability and reservoir capacity can change the magnitude of the effects of forecast uncertainty, but not the relative merit of DSF, pPSF, and rPSF.
Zhao, Tongtiegang; Cai, Ximing; Yang, Dawen
The National Weather Service (NWS) is uniquely mandated amongst federal agencies to provide river forecasts for the United States. To accomplish this mission, the NWS uses the NWS River Forecast System (NWSRFS). The NWSRFS is a collection of hydrologic, hydraulic, data collection, and forecast display algorithms employed at 13 River Forecast Centers (RFCs) throughout the US. Within the NWS, the Hydrology Lab (HL) of the Office of Hydrologic Development conducts research and development to improve the NWS models and products. Areas of current research include, snow, frozen ground, dynamic channel routing, radar and satellite precipitation estimation, uncertainty, and new approaches to rainfall runoff modeling. A prominent area of research lately has been the utility of distributed models to improve the accuracy of NWS forecasts and to provide meaningful hydrologic simulations at ungaged interior nodes. Current river forecast procedures center on lumped applications of the conceptual Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model to transform rainfall to runoff. Unit hydrographs are used to convert runoff to discharge hydrographs at gaged locations. Hydrologic and hydraulic routing methods are used to route hydrographs to downstream computational points. Precipitation inputs to the models have been traditionally defined from rain gage observations. With the nationwide implementation of the Next Generation Radar platforms (NEXRAD), the NWS has precipitation estimates of unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution. In order to most effectively use these high resolution data, recent research has been devoted towards the development of distributed hydrologic models to improve the accuracy of NWS forecasts. The development of distributed models in HL is following specific scientific research and implementation strategies, each consisting of several elements. In its science strategy, HL has conducted a highly successful comparison of distributed models (Distributed Model Intercomparison Project- DMIP) in order to identify which model or process algorithms would benefit the NWS mission. DMIP has also been designed to understand issues such as the use of operational data, the amount of calibration required, and methods of deriving initial parameter estimates. DMIP has garnered participation from 12 research institutions in the US and abroad, including China, Canada, and Denmark. Simultaneously, HL has developed a flexible modeling system that can be used to develop and evaluate various rainfall runoff models and modeling approaches (gridded distributed, semi distributed, and lumped). HL has successfully participated in DMIP with a gridded distributed model consisting of the SAC-SMA and kinematic routing in each computational element. As a result of DMIP, the NWS has decided to move ahead with the implementation of the HL distributed model. As with the research effort, a specific implementation plan is being followed. First, a prototype version of the research distributed model is being run at the one RFC for real time operations. Short term software development is being conducted to make this research version more user friendly. Long term software development is planned to derive a system to efficiently support operational distributed modeling. Long term research will also continue into new rainfall/runoff/routing models and well as parameter estimation, calibration and state updating issues. Formal implementation includes a transition phase in which the new distributed model will be run parallel to the current lumped model in selected basins, providing the forecaster with two simulations for decision making. Moreover, such a transition period will provide much needed exposure and training. Problems identified to date with the deployment of distributed models include the addition of a snow model, issues relating to the quality of the NEXRAD data, methods of parameterizing and calibrating a distributed model, methods of state updating, and training of personnel in the transition from lumped to distributed model forecasting.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), in collaboration with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), are developing an Air Quality Forecasting Program that will eventually result in an operational Nationwide Air Quality Forecasting System. The initial pha...
This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.
Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.
Knowledge of the amount of inflow and water quality from sub-watersheds draining to reservoirs is required to simulate storage and operation in large water supply systems such as the New York City Water Supply System. Often models and statistical approaches based on an assumption of stationary hydroclimatological statistics are used to help evaluate operating options. However, regional studies have found trends in historical records of various hydroclimatic variables which when combined with climate change projections add more complexity to the problem. During extreme events this process is exacerbated by the unique character of each event and associated antecedent conditions and our limited ability to forecast with a certain degree of accuracy pertinent information to guide operations. In this presentation we discuss the importance of hydroclimatic forecast for reservoir system operations by comparing approaches that include historical data based conditioned and non-conditioned statistical approaches, and hydrologic modeling. Our objective is to highlight a discussion looking at advantages and disadvantages of each method and look into alternatives to improve our capability for addressing the challenging issue of non-stationarity. 1 Institute for Sustainable Cities, Hunter College, City University of New York, New York, NY. 2 Bureau of Water Supply, New York City Environmental Protection, Kingston, NY. 3 Nova Consulting, New York, NY
Matonse, A. H.; Frei, A.; Pierson, D. C.; Zion, M.; Wang, L.
Just after the Mw 6.2 earthquake that hit L'Aquila, on April 6 2009, the Civil Protection nominated an International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting (ICEF) that paved the way to the development of the Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF), defined as the "procedures for gathering and disseminating authoritative information about the time dependence of seismic hazards to help communities prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes". In this paper we introduce the first official OEF system in Italy that has been developed by the new-born Centro di Pericolosità Sismica at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia. The system provides every day an update of the weekly probabilities of ground shaking over the whole Italian territory. In this presentation, we describe in detail the philosophy behind the system, the scientific details, and the output format that has been preliminary defined in agreement with Civil Protection. To our knowledge, this is the first operational system that fully satisfies the ICEF guidelines. Probably, the most sensitive issue is related to the communication of such a kind of message to the population. Acknowledging this inherent difficulty, in agreement with Civil Protection we are planning pilot tests to be carried out in few selected areas in Italy; the purpose of such tests is to check the effectiveness of the message and to receive feedbacks.
Marzocchi, Warner; Lombardi, Anna Maria; Casarotti, Emanuele
The airflow and dispersion of a pollutant in a complex urban area of Beijing, China, were numerically examined by coupling a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model with a mesoscale weather model. The models used were Open Source Field Operation and Manipulation (OpenFOAM) software package and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. OpenFOAM was firstly validated against wind-tunnel experiment data. Then, the WRF model was integrated for 42 h starting from 0800 LST 08 September 2009, and the coupled model was used to compute the flow fields at 1000 LST and 1400 LST 09 September 2009. During the WRF-simulated period, a high pressure system was dominant over the Beijing area. The WRF-simulated local circulations were characterized by mountain valley winds, which matched well with observations. Results from the coupled model simulation demonstrated that the airflows around actual buildings were quite different from the ambient wind on the boundary provided by the WRF model, and the pollutant dispersion pattern was complicated under the influence of buildings. A higher concentration level of the pollutant near the surface was found in both the step-down and step-up notches, but the reason for this higher level in each configurations was different: in the former, it was caused by weaker vertical flow, while in the latter it was caused by a downward-shifted vortex. Overall, the results of this study suggest that the coupled WRF-OpenFOAM model is an important tool that can be used for studying and predicting urban flow and dispersions in densely built-up areas.
Miao, Yucong; Liu, Shuhua; Chen, Bicheng; Zhang, Bihui; Wang, Shu; Li, Shuyan
We propose the optimal combination forecasting model based on closeness degree and induced ordered weighted harmonic averaging (IOWHA) operator under the uncertain environment in which the raw data are expressed as interval numbers. It is a new kind of combination forecasting model with variant weights. We can obtain weighted coefficient vectors of combination forecasting methods by maximizing the closeness degree
Lei Jin; Huayou Chen; Xiang Li; Mengjie Yao
The hydrometeorological alert office (called "Decentrate Functional Centre" - CFD) of Umbria Region, in central Italy, is the office that provides technical tools able to support decisions when significant flood/landslide events occur, furnishing 24h support for the whole duration of the emergency period, according to the national directive DPCM 27 February 2004 concerning the "Operating concepts for functional management of national and regional alert system during flooding and landslide events for civil protection activities purposes" that designs, within the Italian Civil Defence Emergency Management System, a network of 21 regional Functional Centres coordinated by a central office at the National Civil Protection Department in Rome. Due to its "linking" role between Civil Protection "real time" activities and environmental/planning "deferred time" ones, the Centre is in charge to acquire and collect both real time and quasi-static data: quantitative data from monitoring networks (hydrometeorological stations, meteo radar, ...), meteorological forecasting models output, Earth Observation data, hydraulic and hydrological simulation models, cartographic and thematic GIS data (vectorial and raster type), planning studies related to flooding areas mapping, dam managing plans during flood events, non instrumental information from direct control of "territorial presidium". A detailed procedure for the management of critical events was planned, also in order to define the different role of various authorities and institutions involved. Tiber River catchment, of which Umbria region represents the main upper-medium portion, includes also regional trans-boundary issues very important to cope with, especially for what concerns large dam behavior and management during heavy rainfall. The alert system is referred to 6 different warning areas in which the territory has been divided into and based on a threshold system of three different increasing critical levels according to the expected ground effects: ordinary, moderate and high. Particularly, hydrometric and rainfall thresholds for both floods and landslides alarms were assessed. Based on these thresholds, at the Umbria Region Functional Centre an automatic phone-call and SMS alert system is operating. For a real time flood forecasting system, at the CFD several hydrological and hydraulic models were developed. Three rainfall-runoff hydrological models, using different quantitative meteorological forecasts, are available: the event based models X-Nash (based on the Nash theory) and Mike-Drift coupled with the hydraulic model Mike-11 (developed by the Danish Hydraulic Institute - DHI); and the physically-based continuous model Mobidic (MOdello di Bilancio Idrologico DIstribuito e Continuo - Distributed and Continuous Model for the Hydrological Balance, developed by the University of Florence in cooperation with the Functional Centre of Tuscany Region). Other two hydrological models, using observed data of the real time hydrometeorological network, were implemented: the first one is the rainfall-runoff hydrological model Hec-Hms coupled with the hydraulic model Hec-Ras (United States Army Corps of Engineers - USACE). Moreover, Hec-Hms, is coupled also with a continuous soil moisture model for a more precise evaluation of the antecedent moisture condition of the basin, which is a key factor for a correct runoff volume evaluation. The second one is the routing hydrological model Stafom (STage FOrecasting Model, developed by the Italian Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection of the National Research Council - IRPI-CNR). This model is an adaptive model for on-line stage forecasting for river branches where significant lateral inflow contributions occur and, up to now, it is implemented for the main Tiber River branch and it allows a forecasting lead time up to 10 hours for the downstream river section. Recently, during the period between December the 4th and the 16th 2008, Umbria region territory was interested
Berni, N.; Pandolfo, C.; Stelluti, M.; Ponziani, F.; Viterbo, A.
During periods of low flows of the Rhine and Meuse Rivers and/or agricultural drought the National Coordinating Committee for Water Distribution of the Netherlands has to decide how the available surface water is used and allocated between different functions like safety (e.g. peat-levee stability), reduction of salt water intrusion, drinking water and agriculture. Since 2009, a real time forecasting system is operational and provides daily nationwide forecasts on the total fresh surface water supply, groundwater levels and saturation of the root zone at 250x250 meters using a surface water model coupled with a MODFLOW-MetaSWAP model of the saturated-unsaturated zone and with a lead-time of 10-30 days. In 2011, new forecasts products like a spatial groundwater anomaly plots for the weekly drought bulletin were introduced. Besides this product, a no rain scenario with a leadtime of 30 days and schematic status displays were also introduced. These products turned out to provide usefull information to support decision making and inform the public during the low period and unusal dry start of 2011 in the Netherlands and Rhine and Meuse basin. The changing patterns in groundwater anomaly give good insight into the hydrological behaviour of the Netherlands. The no-rain scenario provided usefull information to decide on maintaining increased target levels of Lake IJssel and Lake Marker (e.g. the main fresh water supply basins in the Netherlands). Displays of water quality infomation (chloride concentrations) helped to gain insight on the extend of salt water intrusion in the South-Western part of the Netherlands. The schematic status displays provide the water managers a quick and easy to understand overview of the hydrological status cumulating all the underlying detailed information.
Weerts, A. H.; Prinsen, G.; Patzke, S.; van Verseveld, W.; Berger, H.; Kroon, T.
The recursive application of forecasting and optimization can make management strategies more flexible and efficient by improving the potential for anticipating, and thus adapting, to adverse events. In the field of reservoir operation, this means enriching the information base on which release decisions are made. At a minimum, this includes the available reservoir storage, but reservoir management can greatly benefit from consideration of other pieces of information as, for instance, weather and flow forecasts. However, the utility or value of inflow forecasts is directly related to forecast quality. In this work, we focus on snow-dominated water resource systems, where the prediction of the volume and timing of snowmelt can greatly enhance the operational performance. We use the Oroville-Thermalito reservoir complex in the Feather River Basin, California, as a case study to explore the effect of forecast quality on optimal release strategies. We use Deterministic Dynamic Programming to optimize medium-range and seasonal reservoir operation based on different forecasts of reservoir inflows. We determine maximum reservoir operation performance by forcing the optimization with observed inflows, which is equivalent to a perfect forecast. The forecast quality is then progressively degraded to relate forecast skill to changes in release decisions and to determine the minimum forecast skill that is required to affect decision-making. We generate forecasted inflow sequences using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model. Forecast initial conditions are created using observed meteorology, while inflow forecasts are based on seasonal climate forecasts. Although the forecast skill level is specific to the Feather River basin, the methodology should be transferable to other systems with strong seasonal runoff regimes. We assess the transferability of the case study results to other systems using alternative reservoir characteristics of the Oroville-Thermalito reservoir system as a surrogate for alternate reservoir configurations. Specifically, we explore the sensitivity of reservoir operation performance to the ratio of reservoir mean inflow volume to reservoir capacity and downstream demand requirements.
Anghileri, Daniela; Voisin, Nathalie; Castelletti, Andrea; Pianosi, Francesca; Nijssen, Bart; Lettenmaier, Dennis
of forecast failures, in particular those with large socio economic impact. Forecast failures of high (up to 48 hours) are mainly due to the evolution of errors in the forecast initial state (analysis). A major component of sOsE is the determination of a so-called adapted analysis, also denoted as `pseudo
Hydrological forecasts can be made more reliable and less uncertain by recursively improving initial conditions. A common way of improving the initial conditions is to make use of data assimilation (DA), a feedback mechanism or update methodology which merges model estimates with available real world observations. The traditional implementation of the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF; e.g. Evensen, 2009) is synchronous, commonly named a three dimensional (3-D) assimilation, which means that all assimilated observations correspond to the time of update. Asynchronous DA, also called four dimensional (4-D) assimilation, refers to an updating methodology, in which observations being assimilated into the model originate from times different to the time of update (Evensen, 2009; Sakov 2010). This study investigates how the capabilities of the DA procedure can be improved by applying alternative Kalman-type methods, e.g., the Asynchronous Ensemble Kalman Filter (AEnKF). The AEnKF assimilates observations with smaller computational costs than the original EnKF, which is beneficial for operational purposes. The results of discharge assimilation into a grid-based hydrological model for the Upper Ourthe catchment in Belgian Ardennes show that including past predictions and observations in the AEnKF improves the model forecasts as compared to the traditional EnKF. Additionally we show that elimination of the strongly non-linear relation between the soil moisture storage and assimilated discharge observations from the model update becomes beneficial for an improved operational forecasting, which is evaluated using several validation measures. In the current study we employed the HBV-96 model built within a recently developed open source modelling environment OpenStreams (2013). The advantage of using OpenStreams (2013) is that it enables direct communication with OpenDA (2013), an open source data assimilation toolbox. OpenDA provides a number of algorithms for model calibration and assimilation and is suitable to be connected to any kind of environmental model. This setup is embedded in the Delft Flood Early Warning System (Delft-FEWS, Werner et al., 2013) for making all simulations and forecast runs and handling of all hydrological and meteorological data. References: Evensen, G. (2009), Data Assimilation: The Ensemble Kalman Filter, Springer, doi:10.1007/978-3-642-03711-5. OpenDA (2013), The OpenDA data-assimilation toolbox, www.openda.org, (last access: 1 November 2013). OpenStreams (2013), OpenStreams, www.openstreams.nl, (last access: 1 November 2013). Sakov, P., G. Evensen, and L. Bertino (2010), Asynchronous data assimilation with the EnKF, Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 62(1), 24-29, doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2009.00417.x. Werner, M., J. Schellekens, P. Gijsbers, M. van Dijk, O. van den Akker, and K. Heynert (2013), The Delft-FEWS flow forecasting system, Environ. Mod. & Soft., 40(0), 65-77, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.07.010.
Rakovec, Oldrich; Weerts, Albrecht; Sumihar, Julius; Uijlenhoet, Remko
Data assimilation is the process by which observations are combined with short-range NWP model output to produce an analysis of the state of the atmosphere at a specified time. Since its inception in the late 1990s, the multiagency Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model effort has had a strong data assimilation component, dedicating two working groups to the subject. This article documents the history of the WRF data assimilation effort, and discusses the challenges associated with balancing academic, research, and operational data assimilation requirements in the context of the WRF effort to date. The WRF Model's Community Variational/Ensemble Data Assimilation System (WRFDA) has evolved over the past 10 years, and has resulted in over 30 refereed publications to date, as well as implementation in a wide range of real-time and operational NWP systems.
Barker, D.; Huang, X. Y.; Liu, Z. Q.; Auligne, T.; Zhang, X.; Rugg, S.; Ajjaji, R.; Bourgeois, A.; Bray, J.; Chen, Y. S.; Demirtas, M.; Guo, Y. R.; Henderson, T.; Huang, W.; Lin, H. C.; Michalakes, J.; Rizvi, S.; Zhang, X. Y.
In the context of a national energy company (EDF :Electricité de France), hydro-meteorological forecasts are necessary to ensure safety and security of installations, meet environmental standards and improve water ressources management and decision making. Given that the actual quality of meteorological and hydrological forecasts do not allow decision-making in a certain future, meteorological and hydrological ensemble forecasts allow a better representation of forecasts uncertainties. Ensemble forecasts improve the human expertise of hydrological forecasts, which is essential to synthesize available informations, coming from different meteorological and hydrological models and human experience. In this context, the good estimation and communication of hydrological forecasts uncertainties is an essential step to improve the efficient use of forecasts by end-users. This communication is based on operational experiences and focuses on the estimation and communication of uncertain hydro-meteorological forecasts. First, an operational hydro-meteorological ensemble chain developed at EDF is introduced. This chain takes into account both meteorological and hydrological uncertainties, in order to achieve a good probabilistic calibration of forecasts. Probabilistic calibration is absolutely necessary to avoid misrepresentation of uncertainties and under-confidence of forecasts by forecasters and end-users. Then, typical case-studies based on rare hydro-meteorological events will illustrate forecasters difficulty to estimate and communicate forecast uncertainties. Examples on the Durance (Alps) and Loire (Cevennes) watersheds show the cascading and mixing of uncertainties. Forecasters are used to face rather complex situations and cope with uncertain spatio-temporal meteorological forecasts, uncertain rainfall-runoff models and their own expertise. This communication illustrate the daily forecaster experience of hydrometeorological uncertainties and the difficulties to achieve a good estimation and communication of uncertainties. However, these examples reveal the interest of probabilistic forecasts, compared to deterministic forecasts. Our experience also show that improvements still have to be done, in the field of ensemble forecasts chains, human expertise and communication of uncertainties. On the Durance and Loire examples, meteorological ensembles have both suffered from a strong under-estimation of rainfall risks. However, depending on forecasters experience and confidence, forecasters have been able to correctly estimate and communicate forecasts uncertainties on the Durance and failed on the Loire.
Mathevet, T.; Ramos, M.; Gailhard, J.; Bernard, P.; Garçon, R.
In operational conditions, the actual quality of meteorological and hydrological forecasts do not allow decision-making in a certain future. In this context, meteorological and hydrological ensemble forecasts allow a better representation of forecasts uncertainties. Compared to classical deterministic forecasts, ensemble forecasts improve the human expertise of hydrological forecasts, which is essential to synthesize available informations, coming from different meteorological and hydrological models and human experience. In this paper, we present a hydrological ensemble forecasting system under development at EDF (French Hydropower Company). Our results were updated, taking into account a longer rainfall forecasts archive. Our forecasting system both takes into account rainfall forecasts uncertainties and hydrological model forecasts uncertainties. Hydrological forecasts were generated using the MORDOR model (Andreassian et al., 2006), developed at EDF and used on a daily basis in operational conditions on a hundred of watersheds. Two sources of rainfall forecasts were used : one is based on ECMWF forecasts, another is based on an analogues approach (Obled et al., 2002). Two methods of hydrological model forecasts uncertainty estimation were used : one is based on the use of equifinal parameter sets (Beven & Binley, 1992), the other is based on the statistical modelisation of the hydrological forecast empirical uncertainty (Montanari et al., 2004 ; Schaefli et al., 2007). Daily operational hydrological 7-day ensemble forecasts during 4 years (from 2005 to 2008) in few alpine watersheds were evaluated. Finally, we present a way to combine rainfall and hydrological model forecast uncertainties to achieve a good probabilistic calibration. Our results show that the combination of ECMWF and analogues-based rainfall forecasts allow a good probabilistic calibration of rainfall forecasts. They show also that the statistical modeling of the hydrological forecast empirical uncertainty has a better probabilistic calibration, than the equifinal parameter set approach. Andreassian et al., 2006. Catalogue of the models used in MOPEX 2004/2005. Large sample basin experiments for hydrological mode parameterisation : results of the Model Parameter Experiment, IAHS Publ. 307, 41-94. Beven & Binley, 1992. The future of distributed models : model calibration and uncertainty prediction. Hydrological Processes, 6, 279-298. Obled, C., Bontron, G., Garçon, R., 2002. Quantitative precipitation forecasts: a statistical adaptation of model outputs though an analogues sorting approach. Atmospheric Research, 63, 303-324. Montanari, A. and Brath, A., (2004). A stochastic approach for assessing the uncertainty of rainfall-runoff simulations. Water Resources Research, 40, W01106, doi:10.1029/2003WR002540. Schaefli, B., Balin Talamba, D. and Musy, A., (2007). Quantifying hydrological modeling errors through a mixture of normal distributions. Journal of Hydrology, 332, 303-315.
Mathevet, T.; Garavaglia, F.; Gailhard, J.; Garçon, R.; Dubus, L.
We present a statistical procedure for generating short-term ensemble streamflow forecasts from single-valued, or deterministic, streamflow forecasts produced operationally by the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers (RFCs). The resulting ensemble streamflow forecast provides an estimate of the predictive uncertainty associated with the single-valued forecast to support risk-based decision making by the forecasters and by the users of the forecast products, such as emergency managers. Forced by single-valued quantitative precipitation and temperature forecasts (QPF, QTF), the single-valued streamflow forecasts are produced at a 6-h time step nominally out to 5 days into the future. The single-valued streamflow forecasts reflect various run-time modifications, or "manual data assimilation", applied by the human forecasters in an attempt to reduce error from various sources in the end-to-end forecast process. The proposed procedure generates ensemble traces of streamflow from a parsimonious approximation of the conditional multivariate probability distribution of future streamflow given the single-valued streamflow forecast, QPF, and the most recent streamflow observation. For parameter estimation and evaluation, we used a multiyear archive of the single-valued river stage forecast produced operationally by the NWS Arkansas-Red River Basin River Forecast Center (ABRFC) in Tulsa, Oklahoma. As a by-product of parameter estimation, the procedure provides a categorical assessment of the effective lead time of the operational hydrologic forecasts for different QPF and forecast flow conditions. To evaluate the procedure, we carried out hindcasting experiments in dependent and cross-validation modes. The results indicate that the short-term streamflow ensemble hindcasts generated from the procedure are generally reliable within the effective lead time of the single-valued forecasts and well capture the skill of the single-valued forecasts. For smaller basins, however, the effective lead time is significantly reduced by short basin memory and reduced skill in the single-valued QPF.
Regonda, Satish Kumar; Seo, Dong-Jun; Lawrence, Bill; Brown, James D.; Demargne, Julie
Short-term water system operation can be realized using Model Predictive Control (MPC). MPC is a method for operational management of complex dynamic systems. Applied to open water systems, MPC provides integrated, optimal, and proactive management, when forecasts are available. Notwithstanding these properties, if forecast uncertainty is not properly taken into account, the system performance can critically deteriorate. Ensemble forecast is a way to represent short-term forecast uncertainty. An ensemble forecast is a set of possible future trajectories of a meteorological or hydrological system. The growing ensemble forecasts’ availability and accuracy raises the question on how to use them for operational management. The theoretical innovation presented here is the use of ensemble forecasts for optimal operation. Specifically, we introduce a tree based approach. We called the new method Tree-Based Model Predictive Control (TB-MPC). In TB-MPC, a tree is used to set up a Multistage Stochastic Programming, which finds a different optimal strategy for each branch and enhances the adaptivity to forecast uncertainty. Adaptivity reduces the sensitivity to wrong forecasts and improves the operational performance. TB-MPC is applied to the operational management of Salto Grande reservoir, located at the border between Argentina and Uruguay, and compared to other methods.
Raso, L.; Schwanenberg, D.; van de Giesen, N. C.; van Overloop, P. J.
In 2013, forecasters working in the French flood forecasting services tested two automatic techniques for forecast uncertainty assessment in their operational context. These techniques were expected to characterize predictive uncertainty, and provide forecasters with confidence intervals (for example, 80% central intervals) associated to their forecasts (forecast intervals) and estimates of the probability of exceeding some warning thresholds. The first technique was the quantile regression method (Weerts et al., 2011), while the second one was a data-based and non-parametric method. These techniques were applied to a forecasting rainfall-runoff model (GRP) and to two hydraulic models (HYDRA and MASCARET). Both techniques are based on the statistical analysis of past forecast errors. In the case of the hydrological model, the past forecast errors were estimated using a 'perfect' rainfall scenario (corresponding to a posteriori observed rainfall). The forecasters pointed out that the approaches are simple enough to be easily understood, which was stressed as a clear advantage over "black-box" tools. The feedbacks showed that many operational forecasters enjoyed the fact that these automatic assessments brought out the qualities and the defaults of the model (e.g., bias) of which they were aware... or not. Therefore these results clearly helped them to better know the limits of their models. The forecast intervals (80%) produced by the methods were often found too large by the forecasters to be very helpful in their decision-making. Moreover, forecasters thought they were able to give narrower intervals (still being reliable) based on their experience. The methods were considered as providing very good starting points by the forecasters, encouraging them to build their own forecast intervals. Forecasters use the probability of exceeeding a threshold as one piece of information (among others) to decide whether to issue a warning or not. It is considered as very informative and valuable by the forecasters, even in the case different future precipitation scenarios would be used. Operational perspectives are the combination of ensemble precipitation forecasts and these techniques.
Berthet, Lionel; Bourgin, François; Perrin, Charles; Andréassian, Vazken
Operational probabilistic forecasts of river discharge are essential for effective water resources management. Many studies have addressed this topic using different approaches ranging from purely statistical black-box approaches to physically-based and distributed modelling schemes employing data assimilation techniques. However, few studies have attempted to develop operational probabilistic forecasting approaches for large and poorly gauged river basins. This study is funded by the European Space Agency under the TIGER-NET project. The objective of TIGER-NET is to develop open-source software tools to support integrated water resources management in Africa and to facilitate the use of satellite earth observation data in water management. We present an operational probabilistic forecasting approach which uses public-domain climate forcing data and a hydrologic-hydrodynamic model which is entirely based on open-source software. Data assimilation techniques are used to inform the forecasts with the latest available observations. Forecasts are produced in real time for lead times of 0 to 7 days. The operational probabilistic forecasts are evaluated using a selection of performance statistics and indicators. The forecasting system delivers competitive forecasts for the Kavango River, which are reliable and sharp. Results indicate that the value of the forecasts is greatest for intermediate lead times between 4 and 7 days.
Bauer-Gottwein, P.; Jensen, I. H.; Guzinski, R.; Bredtoft, G. K. T.; Hansen, S.; Michailovsky, C. I.
To obtain the satellite observations of cloud over the land and to assimilate them into the model are effective for rain prediction. However it cannot be easily achieved, because emissivity of clouds is weaker than that of land surface. In order to observe cloud over the land, we have to adequately represent the heterogeneity of land state, especially soil moisture distribution, which has large effect on emissivity of the land, and estimate the surface emissivity, then remove it as background information for cloud observation. For this purpose, we developed a satellite-based land and cloud data assimilation system coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (CALDAS-WRF), based on the Coupled Land and Atmosphere Data Assimilation System (CALDAS) (Rasmy et al. 2012). The CALDAS-WRF includes Simple Biosphere model version 2 (SiB2) as a land surface driver, radiative transfer models for surface soil layer and atmosphere as observation operators, and Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and 1DVAR as assimilation algorithms for land and cloud, respectively. The CALDAS-WRF first assimilates the soil moisture heterogeneity, using passive microwave brightness temperature (Tb) at lower frequency, which has a high sensitivity to soil moisture, and then assimilates cloud and water vapor, using Tb at higher frequency and optimized emissivity of land as a background information. To evaluate this system, the CALDAS-WRF was applied to a mesoscale region in the Tibetan Plateau. The experimental results show that the CALDAS-WRF effectively assimilated information of clouds contained in higher frequency microwave data and improved the representation of cloud distribution compared with satellite observation.
Seto, R.; Rasmy, M.; Koike, T.
The Meadow Creek fire burned nearly 1,500 acres in the mountainous region of northwestern Colorado in the summer of 2010. We simulate this fire using WRF-Fire and compare the output to estimated fire perimeters and the atmospheric conditions detected by nearby weather stations. WRF-Fire is a fire spread model coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). Because WRF is a mesoscale weather forecasting model, it was not designed to handle a high resolution computational grid necessary for wildfire simulations. Consequently, we apply various techniques such as terrain smoothing and diffusive damping in order to achieve numerical stability. The data used to initialize our simulation necessarily comes from higher resolution sources than most standard weather simulations. We have chosen to use topographical and vegetation datasets available publicly from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) at resolutions of about 10 meters, which must first be converted to a format that is read by the WRF Preprocessing System (WPS). Finally, because atmospheric data is typically only available at grid resolutions of greater than 10 kilometers, we have used WRF's grid nesting infrastructure to provide reasonable initial and boundary conditions for fire simulation. Supported by NSF grants CNS-0719641 and ATM-0835579 The topography of the computational domain with altitudes annotated in meters. The final observed fire perimeter is displayed as a dotted line.
Beezley, J. D.; Kochanski, A.; Kondratenko, V. Y.; Mandel, J.; Sousedik, B.
Gas-phase mechanisms provide important oxidant and gaseous precursors for secondary aerosol formation. Different gas-phase mechanisms may lead to different predictions of gases, aerosols, and aerosol direct and indirect effects. In this study, WRF/Chem-MADRID simulations are conducted over the continental United States for July 2001, with three different gas-phase mechanisms, a default one (i.e., CBM-Z) and two newly implemented ones (i.e., CB05 and SAPRC-99). Simulation results are evaluated against available surface observations, satellite data, and reanalysis data. The model with these three gas-phase mechanisms gives similar predictions of most meteorological variables in terms of spatial distribution and statistics, but large differences exist in shortwave radiation and temperature and relative humidity at 2 m at individual sites under cloudy conditions, indicating the importance of aerosol semi-direct and indirect effects on these variables. Large biases exist in the simulated wind speed at 10 m, cloud water path, cloud optical thickness, and precipitation, due to uncertainties in current cloud microphysics and surface layer parameterizations. Simulations with all three gas-phase mechanisms well reproduce surface concentrations of O3, CO, NO2, and PM2.5, and column NO2. Larger biases exist in the surface concentrations of nitrate and organic matter (OM) and in the spatial distribution of column CO, tropospheric ozone residual, and aerosol optical depth, due to uncertainties in primary OM emissions, limitations in model representations of chemical transport, and radiative processes. Different gas-phase mechanisms lead to different predictions of mass concentrations of O3 (up to 5 ppb), PM2.5 (up to 0.5 ?g m-3), secondary inorganic PM2.5 species (up to 1.1 ?g m-3), organic PM (up to 1.8 ?g m-3), and number concentration of PM2.5 (up to 2 × 104 cm-3). Differences in aerosol mass and number concentrations further lead to sizeable differences in simulated cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) due to the feedback mechanisms among H2SO4 vapor, PM2.5 number, CCN, and CDNC through gas-phase chemistry, new particle formation via homogeneous nucleation, aerosol growth, and aerosol activation by cloud droplets. This study illustrates the important impact of gas-phase mechanisms on chemical and aerosol predictions, their subsequent effects on meteorological predictions, and a need for an accurate representation of such feedbacks through various atmospheric processes in the model. The online-coupled models that simulate feedbacks between meteorological variables and chemical species may provide more accurate representations of the real atmosphere for regulatory applications and can be applied to simulate chemistry-climate feedbacks over a longer period of time.
Zhang, Yang; Chen, Yaosheng; Sarwar, Golam; Schere, Kenneth
The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) modelling system is a widely used meso-scale numerical weather prediction system designed to serve both atmospheric research and operational forecasting needs. WRF has a large worldwide community counting more than 20,000 users in 130 countries and it has been specifically designed to be the state-of-the-art atmospheric simulation system being portable and running efficiently on available parallel computing platforms. Although WRF can be executed in many different environments ranging form the single core inside a stand-alone machine up to the most sophisticated HPC platforms, there are no solutions yet to match the e-Science paradigm where software, data and users are "linked" together by the network as components of distributed computing infrastructures. The topmost component of the typical e-Science model consists of Science Gateways, defined as community-developed sets of tools, applications, and data collections that normally are integrated via a portal to get access to a distributed infrastructure. One of the many available Science Gateway solutions is the Catania Science Gateway Framework (CSGF - www.catania-science-gateways.it) whose most descriptive keywords are: standard adoption, interoperability and standard adoption. The support of standards such as SAGA and SAML allows any CSGF user to seamlessly access and use both Grid and Cloud-based resources. In this work we present the CSGF and how it has been used in the context of the eI4frica project (www.ei4africa.eu) to implement the Africa Grid Science Gateway (http://sgw.africa-grid.org), which allows to execute WRF simulations on various kinds of distributed computing infrastructures at the same time, including the EGI Federated Cloud.
Barbera, Roberto; Bruno, Riccardo; La Rocca, Giuseppe; Markussen Lunde, Torleif; Pehrson, Bjorn
The New York City water supply system operated by the Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) serves nine million people. It covers 2,000 square miles of portions of the Catskill, Delaware, and Croton watersheds, and it includes nineteen reservoirs and three controlled lakes. DEP is developing an Operations Support Tool (OST) to support its water supply operations and planning activities. OST includes historical and real-time data, a model of the water supply system complete with operating rules, and lake water quality models developed to evaluate alternatives for managing turbidity in the New York City Catskill reservoirs. OST will enable DEP to manage turbidity in its unfiltered system while satisfying its primary objective of meeting the City's water supply needs, in addition to considering secondary objectives of maintaining ecological flows, supporting fishery and recreation releases, and mitigating downstream flood peaks. The current version of OST relies on statistical forecasts of flows in the system based on recent observed flows. To improve short-term decision making, plans are being made to transition to National Weather Service (NWS) ensemble forecasts based on hydrologic models that account for short-term weather forecast skill, longer-term climate information, as well as the hydrologic state of the watersheds and recent observed flows. To ensure that the ensemble forecasts are unbiased and that the ensemble spread reflects the actual uncertainty of the forecasts, a statistical model has been developed to post-process the NWS ensemble forecasts to account for hydrologic model error as well as any inherent bias and uncertainty in initial model states, meteorological data and forecasts. The post-processor is designed to produce adjusted ensemble forecasts that are consistent with the DEP historical flow sequences that were used to develop the system operating rules. A set of historical hindcasts that is representative of the real-time ensemble forecasts is needed to verify that the post-processed forecasts are unbiased, statistically reliable, and preserve the skill inherent in the "raw" NWS ensemble forecasts. A verification procedure and set of metrics will be presented that provide an objective assessment of ensemble forecasts. The procedure will be applied to both raw ensemble hindcasts and to post-processed ensemble hindcasts. The verification metrics will be used to validate proper functioning of the post-processor and to provide a benchmark for comparison of different types of forecasts. For example, current NWS ensemble forecasts are based on climatology, using each historical year to generate a forecast trace. The NWS Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS) under development will utilize output from both the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and the Climate Forecast System (CFS). Incorporating short-term meteorological forecasts and longer-term climate forecast information should provide sharper, more accurate forecasts. Hindcasts from HEFS will enable New York City to generate verification results to validate the new forecasts and further fine-tune system operating rules. Project verification results will be presented for different watersheds across a range of seasons, lead times, and flow levels to assess the quality of the current ensemble forecasts.
Day, G.; Schaake, J. C.; Thiemann, M.; Draijer, S.; Wang, L.
We analyze the impacts of adopting advanced weather forecasting systems at different levels of the decision-making hierarchy of the power grid. Using case studies, we show that state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models can provide high-precision forecasts and uncertainty information that can significantly enhance the performance of planning, scheduling, energy management, and feedback control systems. In addition, we assess the
Victor M. Zavala; Emil M. Constantinescu; Mihai Anitescu
Various aspects of offshore drilling operations, their dependence on oceanographical\\/meteorological parameters, and how reliable forecast of these parameters could save millions of dollars for the oil industry, have been discussed. A comparative study of the forecast parameters with the recorded data has been made. For a greater portion of the time, pressure, wind speeds, wave heights and wave periods lie
THE PREV AIR SYSTEM, AN OPERATIONAL SYSTEM FOR LARGE SCALE AIR QUALITY FORECASTS OVER EUROPE air quality forecasts over Europe. This is the visible part of a wider collaborative project, in the framework of negotiations on trans-boundary air pollution". (2) Providing large scale national air quality
Paris-Sud XI, UniversitÃ© de
Most of the present operational data assimilation techniques provide an improved estimate of the system state up to the current time level based on measurements. From a forecasting viewpoint, this corresponds to an updating of the initial conditions of a numerical model. The standard forecasting procedure is then to run the model into the future, driven by predicted boundary and
S. A. Sannasiraj; Vladan Babovic; Eng Soon Chan
The goal of operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) is to provide authoritative information about the time dependence of seismic hazard to help communities prepare for earthquakes. Statistical and physical models of earthquake interactions have begun to capture many features of natural seismicity, such as aftershock triggering and the clustering of seismic sequences. In some situations, seismicity-based forecasting methods can achieve short-term
K. Milner; T. H. Jordan; R. W. Graves; S. Callaghan; P. J. Maechling; E. H. Field; P. Small
The Arctic Region Supercomputing Center (ARSC) has evaluated multicore processors and other emerging processor technologies for a variety of high performance computing applications in the earth and space sciences, especially climate and weather applications. A flagship effort has been to assess dual core processor nodes on ARSC's Midnight supercomputer, in which two-socket systems were compared to eight-socket systems. Midnight is utilized for ARSC's twice-daily weather research and forecasting (WRF) model runs, available at weather.arsc.edu. Among other findings on Midnight, it was found that the Hypertransport system for interconnecting Opteron processors, memory, and other subsystems does not scale as well on eight-socket (sixteen processor) systems as well as two-socket (four processor) systems. A fundamental limitation is the cache snooping operation performed whenever a computational thread accesses main memory. This increases memory latency as the number of processor sockets increases. This is particularly noticeable on applications such as WRF that are primarily CPU-bound, versus applications that are bound by input/output or communication. The new Cray XT5 supercomputer at ARSC features quad core processors, and will host a variety of scaling experiments for WRF, CCSM4, and other models. Early results will be presented, including a series of WRF runs for Alaska with grid resolutions under 2km. ARSC will discuss a set of standardized test cases for the Alaska domain, similar to existing test cases for CONUS. These test cases will provide different configuration sizes and resolutions, suitable for single processors up to thousands. Beyond multi-core Opteron-based supercomputers, ARSC has examined WRF and other applications on additional emerging technologies. One such technology is the graphics processing unit, or GPU. The 9800-series nVidia GPU was evaluated with the cuBLAS software library. While in-socket GPUs might be forthcoming in the future, current generations of GPUs lack a sufficient balance of computational resources to replace the general-purpose microprocessor found in most traditional supercomputer architectures. ARSC has also worked with the Cell Broadband Engine in a small Playstation3 cluster, as well as a 24-processor system based on IBM's QS22 blades. The QS22 system, called Quasar, features the PowerXCell 8i processor found in the RoadRunner system, along with an InfiniBand network and high performance storage. Quasar overcomes the limitations of the small memory and relatively slow network of the PS3 systems. The presentation will include system-level benchmarks on Quasar, as well as evaluation of the WRF test cases. Another technology evaluation focused on Sun's UltraSPARC T2+ processor, which ARSC evaluated in a two-way system. Each T2+ provides eight processor cores, each of which provides eight threads, for a total of 128 threads in a single system. WRF scalability was good up to the number of cores, but multiple threads per core did not scale as well. Throughout the discussion, practical findings from ARSC will be summarized. While multicore general-purpose microprocessors are anticipated to remain important for large computers running earth and space science applications, the role of other potentially disruptive technologies is less certain. Limitations of current and future technologies will be discussed. class="ab'>
Newby, G. B.; Morton, D.
The atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) retrieved from multi-spectral geostationary satellites form a very crucial input to improve the initial conditions of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models at all operational agencies throughout the globe. With the recent update of operational AMV retrieval algorithm using infrared, water vapor, and visible channels of Indian geostationary meteorological satellite Kalpana-1, an attempt has been made to assess the impact of AMVs in the NWP models. In this study, the impact of Kalpana-1 AMVs is assessed by assimilating them in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using three-dimensional variational data assimilation method during the entire month of July 2011 over the Indian Ocean region. Apart from Kalpana-1 AMVs, the other AMVs available from Global Telecommunications System (GTS) are also assimilated to generate the WRF model analyses. After the initial verification of WRF model analyses, the 12-h wind forecasts from the WRF model are compared with National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Data Assimilation System final analyses. The assimilation of Kalpana-1 AMVs shows positive impact in 12-h wind forecast over the tropical region in the upper troposphere. Similar results are obtained when other AMVs available through GTS are used for assimilation, though the magnitude of positive impact of Kalpana-1 AMVs is slightly higher over tropical region. The 24-h rainfall forecasts are also improved over the Western India and the Bay of Bengal region, when Kalpana-1 AMVs are used for assimilation against control experiments.
Kaur, Inderpreet; Kumar, Prashant; Deb, S. K.; Kishtawal, C. M.; Pal, P. K.; Kumar, Raj
Regional volcanic ash dispersion models are usually offline decoupled from the numerical weather prediction model. Here we describe a new functionality using an integrated modeling system that allows simulating emission, transport, and sedimentation of pollutants released during volcanic activities. A volcanic preprocessor tool has been developed to initialize the Weather Research Forecasting model with coupled Chemistry (WRF-Chem) with volcanic ash and sulphur dioxide emissions. Volcanic ash variables were added into WRF-Chem, and the model was applied to study the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull. We evaluate our results using WRF-Chem with available ash detection data from satellite and airborne sensors, and from ground based Lidar measurements made available through the AeroCom project. The volcanic ash was distributed into 10 different bins according to the particle size ranging from 2 mm to less than 3.9 ?m; different particle size distributions derived from historic eruptions were tested. An umbrella shaped initial ash cloud and an empirical relationship between mass eruption rates and eruption heights were used to initialize WRF-Chem. We show WRF-Chem model verification for the Eyjafjallajökull eruptions, which occurred during the months of April and May 2010. The volcanic ash plume dispersed extensively over Europe. Comparisons with satellite remote sensing volcanic ash retrievals showed good agreement during the events, also ground-based LIDAR compared well to the model simulations. The model sensitivity analysis of the Eyjafjallajökull event showed a considerable bias of ass mass concentrations afar from the volcano depending on initial ash size and eruption rate assumptions. However the WRF-Chem model initialized with reliable eruption source parameters produced good quality forecasts, and will be tested for operational volcanic ash transport predictions.
Stuefer, Martin; Webley, Peter; Grell, Georg; Freitas, Saulo; Kim, Chang Ki; Egan, Sean
In an effort to relieve summer-time congestion in the NY Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) area, the FAA is testing an enhanced convective forecast (ECF) product. The test began in June 2008 and is scheduled to run through early September. The ECF is updated every two hours, right before the Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC) national planning telcon. It is intended to be used by traffic managers throughout the National Airspace System (NAS) and airlines dispatchers to supplement information from the Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP) and the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS). The ECF begins where the current CIWS forecast ends at 2 hours and extends out to 12 hours. Unlike the CCFP it is a detailed deterministic forecast with no aerial coverage limits. It is created by an ENSCO forecaster using a variety of guidance products including, the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. This is the same version of the WRF that ENSCO runs over the Florida peninsula in support of launch operations at the Kennedy Space Center. For this project, the WRF model domain has been shifted to the Northeastern US. Several products from the NASA SPoRT group are also used by the ENSCO forecaster. In this paper we will provide examples of the ECF products and discuss individual cases of traffic management actions using ECF guidance.
Wheeler, Mark; Stobie, James; Gillen, Robert; Jedlovec, Gary; Sims, Danny
Data assimilation (DA) holds considerable potential for improving hydrologic predictions as demonstrated in numerous research studies. However, advances in hydrologic DA research have not been adequately or timely implemented in operational forecast systems to improve the skill of forecasts for better informed real-world decision making. This is due in part to a lack of mechanisms to properly quantify the uncertainty in observations and forecast models in real-time forecasting situations and to conduct the merging of data and models in a way that is adequately efficient and transparent to operational forecasters. The need for effective DA of useful hydrologic data into the forecast process has become increasingly recognized in recent years. This motivated a hydrologic DA workshop in Delft, the Netherlands in November 2010, which focused on advancing DA in operational hydrologic forecasting and water resources management. As an outcome of the workshop, this paper reviews, in relevant detail, the current status of DA applications in both hydrologic research and operational practices, and discusses the existing or potential hurdles and challenges in transitioning hydrologic DA research into cost-effective operational forecasting tools, as well as the potential pathways and newly emerging opportunities for overcoming these challenges. Several related aspects are discussed, including (1) theoretical or mathematical aspects in DA algorithms, (2) the estimation of different types of uncertainty, (3) new observations and their objective use in hydrologic DA, (4) the use of DA for real-time control of water resources systems, and (5) the development of community-based, generic DA tools for hydrologic applications. It is recommended that cost-effective transition of hydrologic DA from research to operations should be helped by developing community-based, generic modeling and DA tools or frameworks, and through fostering collaborative efforts among hydrologic modellers, DA developers, and operational forecasters.
Liu, Yuqiong; Weerts, A.; Clark, M.; Hendricks Franssen, H.-J; Kumar, S.; Moradkhani, H.; Seo, D.-J.; Schwanenberg, D.; Smith, P.; van Dijk, A. I. J. M.; van Velzen, N.; He, M.; Lee, H.; Noh, S. J.; Rakovec, O.; Restrepo, P.
The Tampa Bay Operational Forecast System (TBOFS) has been developed based on a hydrodynamic model system, Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS, Haidvogel, 2008). The curvilinear model grid was constructed and populated with bathymetry obtained from NOS surv...
A. Zhang, E. Wei
Timely and reliable streamflow forecasting with acceptable accuracy is fundamental for flood response and risk management. However, streamflow forecasting models are subject to uncertainties from inputs, state variables, model parameters and structures. This has led to an ongoing development of methods for uncertainty quantification (e.g. generalized likelihood and Bayesian approaches) and methods for uncertainty reduction (e.g. sequential and variational data assimilation approaches). These two classes of methods are distinct yet related, e.g., the validity of data assimilation is essentially determined by the reliability of error specification. Error specification has been one of the most challenging areas in hydrologic data assimilation and there is a major opportunity for implementing uncertainty quantification approaches to inform both model and observation uncertainties. In this study, ensemble data assimilation methods are combined with the maximum a posteriori (MAP) error estimation approach to construct an integrated error estimation and data assimilation scheme for operational streamflow forecasting. We contrast the performance of two different data assimilation schemes: a lag-aware ensemble Kalman smoother (EnKS) and the conventional ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). The schemes are implemented for a catchment upstream of Myrtleford in the Ovens river basin, Australia to assimilate real-time discharge observations into a conceptual catchment model, modèle du Génie Rural à 4 paramètres Horaire (GR4H). The performance of the integrated system is evaluated in both a synthetic forecasting scenario with observed precipitation and an operational forecasting scenario with Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecast rainfall. The results show that the error parameters estimated by the MAP approach generates a reliable spread of streamflow prediction. Continuous state updating reduces uncertainty in initial states and thereby improves the forecasting accuracy significantly. The EnKS streamflow forecasts are more accurate and reliable than the EnKF for the synthetic scenario. They also alleviate instability in the EnKF due to overcorrection of current state variables. For the operational forecasting case, the forecasts benefit less from state updating and the difference between the EnKS and EnKF becomes less significant. This is because the uncertainty in the NWP rainfall forecasts becomes dominant with increasing lead time. Forecast discharge in 2010. Solid curves are observations and gray areas indicate 95% of probabilistic forecasts. (a) openloop ensemble spread based on the error parameters estimated by the MAP; (b) 60-h lead time forecasts based on the EnKS.
Li, Y.; Ryu, D.; Western, A. W.; Wang, Q.; Robertson, D.; Crow, W. T.
Ensemble and probabilistic forecasts have many advantages over deterministic ones, both in meteorology and hydrology (e.g. Krzysztofowicz, 2001). Mainly, they inform the user on the uncertainty linked to the forecast. It has been brought to attention that such additional information could lead to improved decision making (e.g. Wilks and Hamill, 1995; Mylne, 2002; Roulin, 2007), but very few studies concentrate on operational situations involving the use of such forecasts. In addition, many authors have demonstrated that ensemble forecasts outperform deterministic forecasts in terms of performance (e.g. Jaun et al., 2005; Velazquez et al., 2009; Laio and Tamea, 2007). However, such performance is mostly assessed on the basis of numerical scoring rules, which compare the forecasts to the observations, and seldom in terms of management gains. The proposed case study adopts an operational point of view, on the basis that a novel forecasting system has value only if it leads to increase monetary and societal gains (e.g. Murphy, 1994; Laio and Tamea, 2007). More specifically, Environment Canada operational ensemble precipitation forecasts are used to drive the HYDROTEL distributed hydrological model (Fortin et al., 1995), calibrated on the Gatineau watershed located in Québec, Canada. The resulting hydrological ensemble forecasts are then incorporated into Hydro-Québec SOHO stochastic management optimization tool that automatically search for optimal operation decisions for the all reservoirs and hydropower plants located on the basin. The timeline of the study is the fall season of year 2003. This period is especially relevant because of high precipitations that nearly caused a major spill, and forced the preventive evacuation of a portion of the population located near one of the dams. We show that the use of the ensemble forecasts would have reduced the occurrence of spills and flooding, which is of particular importance for dams located in populous area, and increased hydropower production. The ensemble precipitation forecasts extend from March 1st of 2002 to December 31st of 2003. They were obtained using two atmospheric models, SEF (8 members plus the control deterministic forecast) and GEM (8 members). The corresponding deterministic precipitation forecast issued by SEF model is also used within HYDROTEL in order to compare ensemble streamflow forecasts with their deterministic counterparts. Although this study does not incorporate all the sources of uncertainty, precipitation is certainly the most important input for hydrological modeling and conveys a great portion of the total uncertainty. References: Fortin, J.P., Moussa, R., Bocquillon, C. and Villeneuve, J.P. 1995: HYDROTEL, un modèle hydrologique distribué pouvant bénéficier des données fournies par la télédétection et les systèmes d'information géographique, Revue des Sciences de l'Eau, 8(1), 94-124. Jaun, S., Ahrens, B., Walser, A., Ewen, T. and Schaer, C. 2008: A probabilistic view on the August 2005 floods in the upper Rhine catchment, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 8 (2), 281-291. Krzysztofowicz, R. 2001: The case for probabilistic forecasting in hydrology, Journal of Hydrology, 249, 2-9. Murphy, A.H. 1994: Assessing the economic value of weather forecasts: An overview of methods, results and issues, Meteorological Applications, 1, 69-73. Mylne, K.R. 2002: Decision-Making from probability forecasts based on forecast value, Meteorological Applications, 9, 307-315. Laio, F. and Tamea, S. 2007: Verification tools for probabilistic forecasts of continuous hydrological variables, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 11, 1267-1277. Roulin, E. 2007: Skill and relative economic value of medium-range hydrological ensemble predictions, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 11, 725-737. Velazquez, J.-A., Petit, T., Lavoie, A., Boucher, M.-A., Turcotte, R., Fortin, V. and Anctil, F. 2009: An evaluation of the Canadian global meteorological ensemble prediction system for short-term hydrological forecasting, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 13(1
Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Tremblay, Denis; Luc, Perreault; François, Anctil
An effective approach to reducing error in both utility DSM impact estimates and in end-use load forecasts is to collect detailed data on daily operating schedules for key equipment technologies. Utility DSM programs are targeted to equipment that either uses a considerable amount of energy or contributes significantly to peak demand. Energy usage is a function of how many hours the equipment is operated, and peak demand is a function of when the equipment is operated. Thus, end-use load forecasts, and the effects of DSM program impacts on these forecasts, are also dependent on assumptions regarding equipment operating hours and schedules. The traditional load forecasting reliance on end-use metering for collecting equipment usage schedule data is often prohibitively expensive, and may not capture some important components of DSM program impacts (e.g., snap-back, differences between DSM program participants and nonparticipants, pre- to post-program changes in load shape, etc.). Also, hours-of-operation data can be useful for confirming end-use metering data when these are collected, and the survey data can then facilitate generalizations to larger populations. This information is almost certain to refine load forecast assumptions and result in more accurate forecasts.
Tannenbaum, B.; Sumi, D. [HBRS, Inc., Madison, WI (United States); Flygt, F. [Independent Consultant, Madison, WI (United States)
Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.
Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R
This study created a 13-year historical archive of operational flood forecasts issued by the Regional Flood Management and Mitigation Center (RFMMC) of the Mekong River Commission. The RFMMC issues 1- to 5-day daily deterministic river height forecasts for 22 locations throughout the wet season (June-October). When these forecasts reach near flood level, government agencies and the public are encouraged to take protective action against damages. When measured by standard skill scores, the forecasts perform exceptionally well (e.g., 1 day-ahead Nash-Sutcliffe > 0.99) although much of this apparent skill is due to the strong seasonal cycle and the narrow natural range of variability at certain locations. Five-day forecasts upstream of Phnom Penh typically have 0.8 m error standard deviation, whereas below Phnom Penh the error is typically 0.3 m. The coefficients of persistence for 1-day forecasts are typically 0.4-0.8 and 5-day forecasts are typically 0.1-0.7. RFMMC uses a series of benchmarks to define a metric of percentage satisfactory forecasts. As the benchmarks were derived based on the average error, certain locations and lead times consistently appear less satisfactory than others. Instead, different benchmarks were proposed and derived based on the 70th percentile of absolute error over the 13-year period. There are no obvious trends in the percentage of satisfactory forecasts from 2002 to 2012, regardless of the benchmark chosen. Finally, when evaluated from a categorical "crossing above/not-crossing above flood level" perspective, the forecasts have a moderate probability of detection (48% at 1 day ahead, 31% at 5 days ahead) and false alarm rate (13% at 1 day ahead, 74% at 5 days ahead).
Pagano, T. C.
The Rijnland water system is situated in the western part of the Netherlands, and is a low-lying area of which 90% is below sea-level. The area covers 1,100 square kilometres, where 1.3 million people live, work, travel and enjoy leisure. The District Water Control Board of Rijnland is responsible for flood defence, water quantity and quality management. This includes design and maintenance of flood defence structures, control of regulating structures for an adequate water level management, and waste water treatment. For water quantity management Rijnland uses, besides an online monitoring network for collecting water level and precipitation data, a real time control decision support system. This decision support system consists of deterministic hydro-meteorological forecasts with a 24-hr forecast horizon, coupled with a control module that provides optimal operation schedules for the storage basin pumping stations. The uncertainty of the rainfall forecast is not forwarded in the hydrological prediction. At this moment 65% of the pumping capacity of the storage basin pumping stations can be automatically controlled by the decision control system. Within 5 years, after renovation of two other pumping stations, the total capacity of 200 m3/s will be automatically controlled. In critical conditions there is a need of both a longer forecast horizon and a probabilistic forecast. Therefore ensemble precipitation forecasts of the ECMWF are already consulted off-line during dry-spells, and Rijnland is running a pilot operational system providing 10-day water level ensemble forecasts. The use of EPS during dry-spells and the findings of the pilot will be presented. Challenges and next steps towards on-line implementation of ensemble forecasts for risk-based operational management of the Rijnland water system will be discussed. An important element in that discussion is the question: will policy and decision makers, operator and citizens adapt this Anticipatory Water management, including temporary lower storage basin levels and a reduction in extra investments for infrastructural measures.
van der Zwan, Rene
The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center seeks to accelerate the infusion of NASA Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) observations, data assimilation and modeling research into NWS forecast operations and decision-making. To meet long-term program expectations, it is not sufficient simply to give forecasters sophisticated workstations or new forecast products without fully assessing the ways in which they will be utilized. Close communication must be established between the research and operational communities so that developers have a complete understanding of user needs. In turn, forecasters must obtain a more comprehensive knowledge of the modeling and sensing tools available to them. A major goal of the SPoRT Program is to develop metrics and conduct assessment studies with NWS forecasters to evaluate the impacts and benefits of ESE experimental products on forecast skill. At a glance the task seems relatively straightforward. However, performing assessment of experimental products in an operational environment is demanding. Given the tremendous time constraints placed on NWS forecasters, it is imperative that forecaster input be obtained in a concise unobtrusive manor. Great care must also be taken to ensure that forecasters understand their participation will eventually benefit them and WFO operations in general. Two requirements of the assessment plan developed under the SPoRT activity are that it 1) Can be implemented within the WFO environment; and 2) Provide tangible results for BOTH the research and operational communities. Supplemental numerical quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) were chosen as the first experimental SPoRT product to be evaluated during a Pilot Assessment Program conducted 1 May 2003 within the Huntsville AL National Weather Service Forecast Office. Forecast time periods were broken up into six- hour bins ranging from zero to twenty-four hours. Data were made available for display in AWIPS on an operational basis so they could be efficiently incorporated into the forecast process. The methodology used to assess the value of experimental QPFs compared to available operational products is best described as a three-tier approach involving both forecasters and research scientists. Tier-one is a web-based survey completed by duty forecasters on the aviation and public desks. The survey compiles information on how the experimental product was used in the forecast decision making process. Up to 6 responses per twenty-four hours can be compiled during a precipitation event. Tier-two consists of an event post mortem and experimental product assessment performed daily by the NASA/NWS Liaison. Tier-three is a detailed breakdown/analysis of specific events targeted by either the NWS SO0 or SPoRT team members. The task is performed by both NWS and NASA research scientists and may be conducted once every couple of months. The findings from the Pilot Assessment Program will be reported at the meeting.
Lapenta, William M.; Wohlman, Richard; Bradshaw, Tom; Burks, Jason; Jedlovec, Gary; Goodman, Steve; Darden, Chris; Meyer, Paul
Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) is an assimilation tool that is used at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in operational weather forecasting in the USA. In this article, we describe implementation of an extension to the GSI for assimilating surface measurements of PM2.5, PM10, and MODIS aerosol optical depth at 550 nm with WRF-Chem (Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry). We also present illustrative results. In the past, the aerosol assimilation system has been employed to issue daily PM2.5 forecasts at NOAA/ESRL (Earth System Research Laboratory) and, we believe, it is well tested and mature enough to be made available for wider use. We provide a package that, in addition to augmented GSI, consists of software for calculating background error covariance statistics and for converting in situ and satellite data to BUFR (Binary Universal Form for the Representation of meteorological data) format, and sample input files for an assimilation exercise. Thanks to flexibility in the GSI and coupled meteorology-chemistry of WRF-Chem, assimilating aerosol observations can be carried out simultaneously with meteorological data assimilation. Both GSI and WRF-Chem are well documented with user guides available online. This article is primarily intended to be a technical note on the implementation of the aerosol assimilation. Its purpose is also to provide guidance for prospective users of the computer code. Scientific aspects of aerosol assimilation are also briefly discussed.
Pagowski, M.; Liu, Z.; Grell, G. A.; Hu, M.; Lin, H.-C.; Schwartz, C. S.
The Pleim-Xiu land surface model, Pleim surface layer scheme, and Asymmetric Convective Model (version 2) are now options in version 3.0 of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) Advanced Research WRF (ARW) core. These physics parameterizations were developed for the f...
Aware only of the resolved, grid-scale clouds, the Weather Research & Forecasting model (WRF) does not consider the interactions between subgrid-scale convective clouds and radiation. One consequence of this omission may be WRF?s overestimation of surface precipitation during sum...
To provide reliable and accurate seasonal streamflow forecasts for water resources management several operational hydrologic agencies and hydropower companies around the world use the Extended Streamflow Prediction (ESP) procedure. The ESP in its original implementation does not accommodate for any additional information that the forecaster may have about expected deviations from climatology in the near future. Several attempts have been conducted to improve the skill of the ESP forecast, especially for areas which are affected by teleconnetions (e,g. ENSO, PDO) via selection (Hamlet and Lettenmaier, 1999) or weighting schemes (Werner et al., 2004; Wood and Lettenmaier, 2006; Najafi et al., 2012). A disadvantage of such schemes is that they lead to a reduction of the signal to noise ratio of the probabilistic forecast. To overcome this, we propose a resampling method conditional on climate indices to generate meteorological time series to be used in the ESP. The method can be used to generate a large number of meteorological ensemble members in order to improve the statistical properties of the ensemble. The effectiveness of the method was demonstrated in a real-time operational hydrologic seasonal forecasts system for the Columbia River basin operated by the Bonneville Power Administration. The forecast skill of the k-nn resampler was tested against the original ESP for three basins at the long-range seasonal time scale. The BSS and CRPSS were used to compare the results to those of the original ESP method. Positive forecast skill scores were found for the resampler method conditioned on different indices for the prediction of spring peak flows in the Dworshak and Hungry Horse basin. For the Libby Dam basin however, no improvement of skill was found. The proposed resampling method is a promising practical approach that can add skill to ESP forecasts at the seasonal time scale. Further improvement is possible by fine tuning the method and selecting the most informative climate indices for the region of interest.
Beckers, J.; Weerts, A.; Tijdeman, E.; Welles, E.; McManamon, A.
In collaboration with Xcel Energy and Vasaila Inc., the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) conducts modeling study to evaluate the existing and the enhanced intensive observation systems for wind power nowcasting and short-range forecasting at a northern Colorado wind farm. The NCAR WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting model) based Real-Time Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation (RTFDDA) and forecasting system, which has been employed to support Xcel Energy operational wind forecast, was used in this study. The observational data include ten met-towers, a 915Hz wind profiler, a sodar and a Windcube Doppler lidar, besides the in-farm met-towers and wind speed and power reports from more than 300 of wind turbines. The WRF-RTFDDA 4-dimensioanl data assimilation algorithm allows to spread and propagate observation information in the WRF model space (x, y, z and time) with weighting functions built according to the observation location and time. The WRF-RTFDDA was set up to run with four nested domains with grid increments of 30, 10, 3.333 and 1.111km respectively. The standard and diverse non-conventional observations are assimilated on coarse grid domains along with the special wind farm observations. In this study, we investigate a) spread of surface observations in PBL according to PBL depth and regimes, b) optimization of horizontal influence radii and steep-terrain adjustment, and c) impact of different observation platforms and data types on 0 - 12 h wind prediction . It is found that PBL mixing and thermodynamic structures are greatly influenced by the PBL parameterization formulation. The range of the data assimilation effect on forecasts relies on weather and PBL regimes. In most cases, assimilation of in-farm and near-farm observations improves up to 12-hour wind power prediction and assimilation of in-farm data can significantly improves 0 - 6 hour forecasts.
Liu, Y.; Cheng, W.; Liu, Y. W.; Wiener, G.; Frehlich, R.; Mahoney, W.; Warner, T.; Himelic, J.; Parks, K.; Early, S.
NOAA/NESDIS operates a constellation of polar and geostationary orbiting satellites to support weather forecasts and to monitor the climate. Additionally, NOAA utilizes satellite assets from other U.S. agencies like NASA and the Department of Defense, as well as those from other nations with similar weather and climate responsibilities (i.e., EUMETSAT and JMA). Over the past two decades, through joint efforts between U.S. and international government researchers, academic partners, and private sector corporations, a series of "value added" products have been developed to better serve the needs of weather forecasters and to exploit the full potential of precipitation and moisture products generated from these satellites. In this presentation, we will focus on two of these products - Ensemble Tropical Rainfall Potential (eTRaP) and Blended Total Precipitable Water (bTPW) - and provide examples on how they contribute to hydrometeorological forecasts. In terms of passive microwave satellite products, TPW perhaps is most widely used to support real-time forecasting applications, as it accurately depicts tropospheric water vapor and its movement. In particular, it has proven to be extremely useful in determining the location, timing, and duration of "atmospheric rivers" which contribute to and sustain flooding events. A multi-sensor approach has been developed and implemented at NESDIS in which passive microwave estimates from multiple satellites and sensors are merged to create a seamless, bTPW product that is more efficient for forecasters to use. Additionally, this product is being enhanced for utilization for television weather forecasters. Examples will be shown to illustrate the roll of atmospheric rivers and contribution to flooding events, and how the bTPW product was used to improve the forecast of these events. Heavy rains associated with land falling tropical cyclones (TC) frequently trigger floods that cause millions of dollars of damage and tremendous loss of lives. To provide observations-based forecast guidance for TC heavy rain, the Tropical Rainfall Potential (TRaP), an extrapolation forecast generated by accumulating rainfall estimates from satellites with microwave sensors as the storm is translated along the forecast track, was originally developed to predict the maximum rainfall at landfall, as well as the spatial pattern of precipitation. More recently, an enhancement has been made to combine the TRaP forecasts from multiple sensors and various start times into an ensemble (eTRaP). The ensemble approach provides not only more accurate quantitative precipitation forecasts, including more skillful maximum rainfall amount and location, it also produces probabilistic forecasts of rainfall exceeding various thresholds that decision makers can use to make critical risk assessments. Examples of the utilization and performance of eTRaP will be given in the presentation.
Ferraro, R.; Zhao, L.; Kuligowski, R. J.; Kusselson, S.; Ma, L.; Kidder, S. Q.; Forsythe, J. M.; Jones, A. S.; Ebert, E. E.; Valenti, E.
Mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are gaining more attention in providing high-resolution rainfall forecasts at the catchment scale for real-time flood forecasting. The model accuracy is however negatively affected by the "spin-up" effect and errors in the initial and lateral boundary conditions. Synoptic studies in the meteorological area have shown that the assimilation of operational observations, especially the weather radar data, can improve the reliability of the rainfall forecasts from the NWP models. This study aims at investigating the potential of radar data assimilation in improving the NWP rainfall forecasts that have direct benefits for hydrological applications. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is adopted to generate 10 km rainfall forecasts for a 24 h storm event in the Brue catchment (135.2 km2) located in southwest England. Radar reflectivity from the lowest scan elevation of a C-band weather radar is assimilated by using the three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) data-assimilation technique. Considering the unsatisfactory quality of radar data compared to the rain gauge observations, the radar data are assimilated in both the original form and an improved form based on a real-time correction ratio developed according to the rain gauge observations. Traditional meteorological observations including the surface and upper-air measurements of pressure, temperature, humidity and wind speed are also assimilated as a bench mark to better evaluate and test the potential of radar data assimilation. Four modes of data assimilation are thus carried out on different types/combinations of observations: (1) traditional meteorological data; (2) radar reflectivity; (3) corrected radar reflectivity; (4) a combination of the original reflectivity and meteorological data; and (5) a combination of the corrected reflectivity and meteorological data. The WRF rainfall forecasts before and after different modes of data assimilation are evaluated by examining the rainfall temporal variations and total amounts which have direct impacts on rainfall-runoff transformation in hydrological applications. It is found that by solely assimilating radar data, the improvement of rainfall forecasts are not as obvious as assimilating meteorological data; whereas the positive effect of radar data can be seen when combined with the traditional meteorological data, which leads to the best rainfall forecasts among the five modes. To further improve the effect of radar data assimilation, limitations of the radar correction ratio developed in this study are discussed and suggestions are made on more efficient utilisation of radar data in NWP data assimilation.
Liu, J.; Bray, M.; Han, D.
and Environmental Engineering, Institute for Dam Safety Risk Management, Utah Water Research Laboratory, Utah State-line Planning Mode, the Reservoir Release Forecast Model (RRFM) is being used to test alternatives operating in addition to developing and testing operating rule changes, including possible pre-release strategies
Bowles, David S.
The efficiency of fabrication (fab) operation is one of the key factors in order for a semiconductor manufacturing company to stay competitive. Optimization of manpower and forecasting manpower needs in a modern fab is an essential part of the future strategic planing and a very important to the operational efficiency. As the semiconductor manufacturing technology has entered the 8-inch wafer
Gwo-Hshiung Tzeng; Chun-Yen Chang; Mei-Chen Lo
Prediction of reliable ocean weather conditions is critical for ship navigation, offshore oil and gas operations, proper management of nearshore resources, studies related to oil-spill and pollutant transport, etc. The Cook Inlet (Alaska) region exhibits the largest tidal fluctuations in the United States, and hence exhibits significant flooding and drying which poses threats to a variety of activities in coastal regions. A coupled wind-wave-current system is developed to obtain forecasts of waves and circulation pattern for a 36 h forecast period. A sophisticated wave transformation model and a three-dimensional circulation model are considered, and the forecasted high-resolution winds from different sources are utilized. The coupled system also predicts the extent of 'wet' and 'dry' regions during a particular forecast cycle. The effect of grid resolution on the overall results is studied by using nested grid approach with high-resolution grid for two separate regions. The forecasted results of different modeled quantities are compared with data available from various sources such as satellite images, field observations and other relevant models. It is found that the coupling of different components is required for better estimates of 'wet' and 'dry' nearshore regions. Good agreement between data and model results demonstrate the efficiency of this coupled system for operational forecasting.
Sharma, A.; Panchang, V. G.
The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, in collaboration with the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA), is providing red-green-blue (RGB) color composite imagery to several of NOAA s National Centers and National Weather Service forecast offices as a demonstration of future capabilities of the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) to be implemented aboard GOES-R. Forecasters rely upon geostationary satellite imagery to monitor conditions over their regions of responsibility. Since the ABI will provide nearly three times as many channels as the current GOES imager, the volume of data available for analysis will increase. RGB composite imagery can aid in the compression of large data volumes by combining information from multiple channels or paired channel differences into single products that communicate more information than provided by a single channel image. A standard suite of RGB imagery has been developed by the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT), based upon the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI). The SEVIRI instrument currently provides visible and infrared wavelengths comparable to the future GOES-R ABI. In addition, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments aboard the NASA Terra and Aqua satellites can be used to demonstrate future capabilities of GOES-R. This presentation will demonstrate an overview of the products currently disseminated to SPoRT partners within the GOES-R Proving Ground, and other National Weather Service forecast offices, along with examples of their application. For example, CIRA has used the channels of the current GOES sounder to produce an "air mass" RGB originally designed for SEVIRI. This provides hourly imagery over CONUS for looping applications while demonstrating capabilities similar to the future ABI instrument. SPoRT has developed similar "air mass" RGB imagery from MODIS, and through a case study example, synoptic-scale features evident in single-channel water vapor imagery are shown in the context of the air mass product. Other products, such as the "nighttime microphysics" RGB, are useful in the detection of low clouds and fog. Nighttime microphysics products from MODIS offer some advantages over single-channel or spectral difference techniques and will be discussed in the context of a case study. Finally, other RGB products from SEVIRI are being demonstrated as precursors to GOES-R within the GOES-R Proving Ground. Examples of "natural color" and "dust" imagery will be shown with relevant applications.
Molthan, Andrew L.; Fuell, Kevin K.; Oswald, Hayden, K; Knaff, John A.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) River Forecast Centers (RFCs) issue hydrologic forecasts related to flood events, reservoir operations for water supply, streamflow regulation, and recreation on the nation's streams and rivers. The RFCs use the National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) for streamflow forecasting which relies on a coupled snow model (i.e. SNOW17) and rainfall-runoff model (i.e. SAC-SMA) in snow-dominated regions of the US. Errors arise in various steps of the forecasting system from input data, model structure, model parameters, and initial states. The goal of the current study is to undertake verification of potential improvements in the SNOW17-SAC-SMA modeling framework developed for operational streamflow forecasts. We undertake verification for a range of parameters sets (i.e. RFC, DREAM (Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis)) as well as a data assimilation (DA) framework developed for the coupled models. Verification is also undertaken for various initial conditions to observe the influence of variability in initial conditions on the forecast. The study basin is the North Fork America River Basin (NFARB) located on the western side of the Sierra Nevada Mountains in northern California. Hindcasts are verified using both deterministic (i.e. Nash Sutcliffe efficiency, root mean square error, and joint distribution) and probabilistic (i.e. reliability diagram, discrimination diagram, containing ratio, and Quantile plots) statistics. Our presentation includes comparison of the performance of different optimized parameters and the DA framework as well as assessment of the impact associated with the initial conditions used for streamflow forecasts for the NFARB.
Barik, M. G.; Hogue, T. S.; Franz, K. J.; He, M.
Fuel moisture is a major influence on the behavior of wildland fires and an important underlying factor in fire risk. We present a method to assimilate spatially sparse fuel moisture observations from remote automatic weather stations (RAWS) into the moisture model in WRF-SFIRE. WRF-SFIRE is a coupled atmospheric and fire behavior model which simulates the evolution of fuel moisture in idealized fuel species based on atmospheric state. The proposed method uses a modified trend surface model to estimate the fuel moisture field and its uncertainty based on currently available observations. At each grid point of WRF-SFIRE, this information is combined with the model forecast using a nonlinear Kalman filter, leading to an updated estimate of fuel moisture. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the method with tests in two real-world situations: a region in Southern California, where two large Santa Ana fires occurred recently, and on a domain enclosing Colorado.
Vejmelka, Martin; Mandel, Jan
Previous research has demonstrated the ability to use the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model and contemporary dynamical downscaling methods to refine global climate modeling results to a horizontal resolution of 36 km. Environmental managers and urban planners have expre...
Even though grass fires are associated with smaller scales and lower intensities than forest fires, due to their very high spread rates, they can present a serious threat not only to firefighters but to communities located within grassland environments. This threat may be attributed to both the natural grass fires as well as prescribed grass burns that run out of control. Due to lack of in situ meteorological observations of atmosphere-fire interactions, validations of the currently used coupled fire-atmosphere models were generally limited to evaluation of the fire spread rate, fire front shape, and the ambient wind speed out of the burnt area. Although these grass fire studies help to identify deficiencies in the models and improve their capabilities in terms of operational fire spread forecasting, they do not give any insight into the fire atmosphere interactions that are crucial for the correct simulation of the fire dynamics. In this study we take advantage of the first observations of the turbulent fluxes associated with the fire front passage recorded during the FireFlux experiment (conducted in February 2006), and use this dataset to investigate the performance of the WRF-Fire, the fire module of the NCAR Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We will compare WRF-Fire simulated to observed vertical structures of the horizontal and vertical wind speeds and temperature modified by the fire front passage. We will also investigate the timing and amplitude of the observed disturbances in these fields as well as changes in the turbulent characteristic of the flow, and compare modeled results to FireFlux observations.
Kochanski, A.; Jenkins, M.; Krueger, S. K.; Mandel, J.; Beezley, J. D.; Clements, C. B.
Hedging policies for reservoir operations makes a small deficit in current supply to reduce the probability of a severe water shortage in the future. One of the critical questions for hedging research is how long the forecast period should be so that reliable inflow forecast in the period can be used for decision making under hedging. Decision makers always hope to look further into the future; however, the longer the forecast period, the more uncertain and less reliable the involved information, which will have a diminishing influence on decision making. For dynamic reservoir operation optimization models, the decision horizon (DH) may be defined as the initial periods in which decisions are not affected by forecast data beyond a certain period, defined as the forecast horizon (FH). This paper determines FH with given DH for dynamic reservoir operation problems through both theoretical and numerical analysis. We use order of magnitude analysis and numerical modeling to identify the impact of various factors such as water stress level (the deficit between water availability and demand), reservoir size, inflow uncertainty, evaporation rate, and discount rate. Three types of inflow time series are used: stationary, nonstationary with seasonality, and random walk. Results show that inflow characteristics and reservoir capacity have major impacts on FH when water stress is modest; larger reservoir capacity and the deterministic component of inflow such as seasonality require a longer FH. Economic factors have strong impacts when water stress levels are high.
You, Jiing-Yun; Cai, Ximing
GEM-MACH was implemented by Environment Canada as a new multi-scale in-line air quality (AQ) forecast system in late 2009. The operational version, GEM-MACH15, is a limited-area model with 15-km horizontal grid spacing and 58 vertical levels extending from the surface to 0.1 hPa. The model is run twice daily at the Canadian Meteorological Centre to produce 48-hour forecasts over a continental-scale domain. In this presentation, the first operational performance evaluation of GEM-MACH15 predictions for a one-year period (Aug. 2009-July 2010) will be described. Model forecasts of O3, PM2.5, and NO2 will be compared against available surface measurements from Canadian and U.S. real-time monitoring networks. A statistical analysis will be presented showing monthly forecast performance and geographical variability across Canadian and U.S. regions. A kriging technique will be applied to show the spatial distribution of model statistical performance measures. Model strengths and weaknesses will also be identified.GEM-MACH15 Operational Air Quality Forecast Model: An Evaluation of the First Year’s Performance
Pavlovic, R.; Menard, S.; Moran, M. D.; Beaulieu, P.; Gilbert, S.; Chen, J.; Makar, P.; Morneau, G.
Four-dimensional variational data assimilation is applied to a regional forecast model as part of the development of a new data assimilation system at the National Meteorological Center (NMC). The assimilation employs an operational version of the NMC's new regional forecast model defined in eta vertical coordinates, and data used are operationally produced optimal interpolation (OI) analyses (using the first guess from the NMC's global spectral model), available every 3 h. Humidity and parameterized processes are not included in the adjoint model integration. The calculation of gradients by the adjoint model is approximate since the forecast model is used in its full-physics operational form. All experiments are over a 12-h assimilation period with subsequent 48-h forecast. Three different types of assimilation experiments are performed: (a) adjustment of initial conditions only (standard [open quotes]adjoint[close quotes] approach), (b) adjustment of a correction to the model equations only (variational continuous assimilation), and (c) simultaneous or sequential adjustment of both initial conditions and the correction term. Results indicate significantly better results when the correction term is included in the assimilation. It is shown, for a single case, that the new technique [experiment (c)] is able to produce a forecast better than the current conventional OI assimilation. It is very important to note that these results are obtained with an approximate gradient, calculated from a simplified adjoint model. Thus, it may be possible to perform an operational four-dimensional variational data assimilation of realistic forecast models, even before more complex adjoint models are developed. Also, the results suggest that it may be possible to reduce the large computational cost of assimilation by using only a few iterations of the minimization algorithm. This fast convergence is encouraging from the prospective of operational use. 37 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab.
Zupanski, M. (National Meteorological Center, Washington, DC (United States))
The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed a Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sea surface temperature (SST) composite at 2-km resolution that has been implemented in version 3 of the National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Environmental Modeling System (EMS). The WRF EMS is a complete, full physics numerical weather prediction package that incorporates dynamical cores from both the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). The installation, configuration, and execution of either the ARW or NMM models is greatly simplified by the WRF EMS to encourage its use by NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) and the university community. The WRF EMS is easy to run on most Linux workstations and clusters without the need for compilers. Version 3 of the WRF EMS contains the most recent public release of the WRF-NMM and ARW modeling system (version 3 of the ARW is described in Skamarock et al. 2008), the WRF Pre-processing System (WPS) utilities, and the WRF Post-Processing program. The system is developed and maintained by the NWS National Science Operations Officer Science and Training Resource Coordinator. To initialize the WRF EMS with high-resolution MODIS SSTs, SPoRT developed the composite product consisting of MODIS SSTs over oceans and large lakes with the NCEP Real-Time Global (RTG) filling data over land points. Filling the land points is required due to minor inconsistencies between the WRF land-sea mask and that used to generate the MODIS SST composites. This methodology ensures a continuous field that adequately initializes all appropriate arrays in WRF. MODIS composites covering the Gulf of Mexico, western Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean are generated daily at 0400, 0700, 1600, and 1900 UTC corresponding to overpass times of the NASA Aqua and Terra polar orbiting satellites. The MODIS SST product is output in gridded binary-1 (GRIB-1) data format for a seamless incorporation into WRF via the WPS utilities. The full-resolution, 1-km MODIS product is sub-sampled to 2-km grid spacing due to limitations in handling very large dimensions in the GRIB-1 data format. The GRIB-1 files are posted online at ftp://ftp.nsstc.org/sstcomp/WRF/, which is directly accessed by the WRF EMS scripts. The MODIS SST composites are also downloaded to the EMS data server, which is accessible by the WRF EMS users and NWS WFOs. The SPoRT MODIS SST composite provides the model with superior detail of the ocean gradients around Florida and surrounding waters, whereas the operational RTG SST typically depicts a relatively smooth field and is not able to capture sharp horizontal gradients in SST. Differences of 2-3 C are common over small horizontal distances, leading to enhanced SST gradients on either side of the Gulf Stream and along the edges of the cooler shelf waters. These sharper gradients can in turn produce atmospheric responses in simulated temperature and wind fields as depicted in LaCasse et al. Differences in atmospheric verification statistics over a several month study were generally small in the vicinity of south Florida; however, the validation of SSTs at specific buoy locations revealed important improvements in the biases and RMS errors, especially in the vicinity of the cooler shelf waters off the east-central Florida coast. A current weakness in the MODIS SST product is the occurrence of occasional discontinuities caused by high latency in SST coverage due to persistent cloud cover. An enhanced method developed by Jedlovec et al. (2009, GHRSST User Symposium) reduces the occurrence of these problems by adding Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer -- EOS (AMSR-E) SST data to the compositing process. Enhanced SST composites are produced over the ocean regions surrounding the Continental U.S. at four times each day corresponding to Terra and Aqua equator crossing times. For a given day and overpass time, both MODInd AMSR-E data from the previous seven days form a collection used in the compositing. At each MO
Case, Jonathan L.; Jedlove, Gary J.; Santos, Pablo; Medlin, Jeffrey M.; Rozumalski, Robert A.
The development of science-based ocean forecasting systems at global, regional, and local scales can support a better management of the marine environment (maritime security, environmental and resources protection, maritime and commercial operations, tourism, ...). In this context, SOCIB (the Balearic Islands Coastal Observing and Forecasting System, www.socib.es) has developed an operational ocean forecasting system in the Western Mediterranean Sea (WMOP). WMOP uses a regional configuration of the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS, Shchepetkin and McWilliams, 2005) nested in the larger scale Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) with a spatial resolution of 1.5-2km. WMOP aims at reproducing both the basin-scale ocean circulation and the mesoscale variability which is known to play a crucial role due to its strong interaction with the large scale circulation in this region. An operational validation system has been developed to systematically assess the model outputs at daily, monthly and seasonal time scales. Multi-platform observations are used for this validation, including satellite products (Sea Surface Temperature, Sea Level Anomaly), in situ measurements (from gliders, Argo floats, drifters and fixed moorings) and High-Frequency radar data. The validation procedures allow to monitor and certify the general realism of the daily production of the ocean forecasting system before its distribution to users. Additionally, different indicators (Sea Surface Temperature and Salinity, Eddy Kinetic Energy, Mixed Layer Depth, Heat Content, transports in key sections) are computed every day both at the basin-scale and in several sub-regions (Alboran Sea, Balearic Sea, Gulf of Lion). The daily forecasts, validation diagnostics and indicators from the operational model over the last months are available at www.socib.es.
Juza, Mélanie; Mourre, Baptiste; Renault, Lionel; Tintoré, Joaquin
The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is a new model development effort undertaken jointly by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and a number of collaborating institutions and university scientists. The model is intended for use by operational NWP and university research communities, providing a common framework for idealized dynamical studies, fill physics numerical weather prediction, air-quality simulation, and regional climate. It will eventually supersede large, well-established but aging regional models now maintained by the participating institutions. The WRF effort includes re-engineering the underlying software architecture to produce a modular, flexible code designed from the outset to provide portable performance across diverse computing architectures. This paper outlines key elements of the WRF software design.
This study attempts to investigate potential impacts of future climate change on streamflow and reservoir operation performance\\u000a in a Northern American Prairie watershed. System Dynamics is employed as an effective methodology to organize and integrate\\u000a existing information available on climate change scenarios, watershed hydrologic processes, reservoir operation and water\\u000a resource assessment system. The second version of the Canadian Centre for
Lanhai Li; Honggang Xu; Xi Chen; S. P. Simonovic
be underestimated here. Currents and pressures on the shelf are dominated by it. The M2 elevation amplitude is of order 1 meter; the phase range, 30 degrees or 1 hour. On the inner shelf, the M2 constituent accountsForecasting the Coastal Ocean: Resolution, Tide, and Operational Data in the South Atlantic Bight D
The paper describes the methodology that has been developed for transmission system operators (TSOs) of Republic of Ireland, Eirgrid, and Northern Ireland, SONI the TSO in Northern Ireland, to study the effects of advanced wind power forecasting on optimal short-term power system scheduling. The resulting schedules take into account the electricity market conditions and feature optimal reserve scheduling. The short-term
Andrej F. Gubina; Andrew Keane; Peter Meibom; J. O'Sullivan; O. Goulding; T. McCartan; M. O'Malley
The INFORM (Integrated Forecast and Reservoir Management) Demonstration Project was created to demonstrate the utility of climate, weather and hydrologic predictions for water resources management in Northern California (includes Trinity River, the Sacramento River, the Feather River, the American River, the San Joaquin River, and the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta). The INFORM system integrates climate-weather-hydrology forecasting and adaptive reservoir management methods, explicitly accounting for system input and model uncertainties. Operational ensemble forecasts from the Global Forecast System (GFS) and the Climate Forecast System (CFS) of the National Centers of Environmental Prediction (NCEP) are used to drive the WRF model and an Intermediate Complexity Regional Model (ICRM) to produce ensemble precipitation and temperature forecasts with a 10km x 10km resolution and from 6 hours to 30 days. These forecasts feed hydrologic models and provide ensemble inflow forecasts for the major reservoirs of Northern California. The ensemble inflow forecasts are input to a multiobjective and multisite adaptive decision support system designed to support the planning and management processes by deriving real time trade-offs among all relevant water management objectives (i.e., water supply and conservation, hydroelectric power production, flood control, and fisheries and environmental management) at user preferred risk levels. Operational tests over an initial three-year demonstration phase showed good operational performance both for wet and dry years. The presentation focuses on (1) modeling aspects of the current forecast and reservoir components and recent tests and (2) use of recent forecasts for the generation of applicable operational tradeoffs. The test results corroborate the operational value of the integrated forecast-management system.
Georgakakos, K. P.; Graham, N.; Georgakakos, A. P.; Yao, H.
In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) is coupled with the Advanced Canopy-Atmosphere-Soil Algorithm (ACASA), a high complexity land surface model. Although WRF is a state-of-the-art regional atmospheric model with high spatial and temporal resolutions, the land surface schemes available in WRF are simple and lack the capability to simulate carbon dioxide, for example, the popular NOAH LSM. ACASA is a complex multilayer land surface model with interactive canopy physiology and full surface hydrological processes. It allows microenvironmental variables such as air and surface temperatures, wind speed, humidity, and carbon dioxide concentration to vary vertically. Simulations of surface conditions such as air temperature, dew point temperature, and relative humidity from WRF-ACASA and WRF-NOAH are compared with surface observation from over 700 meteorological stations in California. Results show that the increase in complexity in the WRF-ACASA model not only maintains model accuracy, it also properly accounts for the dominant biological and physical processes describing ecosystem-atmosphere interactions that are scientifically valuable. The different complexities of physical and physiological processes in the WRF-ACASA and WRF-NOAH models also highlight the impacts of different land surface and model components on atmospheric and surface conditions.
Xu, L.; Pyles, R. D.; Paw U, K. T.; Chen, S. H.; Monier, E.
A real-time operational forecast model for meteorology and air quality for Oslo, Norway is presented. The model systemconsists of an operational meteorological forecasts modeland an air quality model. A non-hydrostatic model operatedon two different domains with 1 and 3 km horizontalresolution is nested within the routine meteorologicalforecast model, which is run for North West Europe with 10 kmhorizontal resolution. The
Erik Berge; Sam-Erik Walker; Asgeir Sorteberg; Mothei Lenkopane; Steinar Eastwood; Hildegunn I. Jablonska; Morten Ødegaard Køltzow
Recent manned and unmanned Earth-orbital operations have suggested great promise of improved knowledge and of substantial economic and associated benefits to be derived from services offered by a space station. Proposed application areas include agriculture, forestry, hydrology, public health, oceanography, natural disaster warning, and search/rescue operations. The need for reliable estimates of economic and related Earth-oriented benefits to be realized from Earth-orbital operations is discussed and recent work in this area is reviewed. Emphasis is given to those services based on remote sensing. Requirements for a uniform, comprehensive and flexible methodology are discussed. A brief review of the suggested methodology is presented. This methodology will be exercised through five case studies which were chosen from a gross inventory of almost 400 user candidates. The relationship of case study results to benefits in broader application areas is discussed, Some management implications of possible future program implementation are included.
Summer, R. A.; Smolensky, S. M.; Muir, A. H.
Mesoscale weather conditions can significantly affect the space launch and landing operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). During the summer months, land-sea interactions that occur across KSC and CCAFS lead to the formation of a sea breeze, which can then spawn deep convection. These convective processes often last 60 minutes or less and pose a significant challenge to the forecasters at the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG). The main challenge is that a "GO" forecast for thunderstorms and precipitation is required at the 90 minute deorbit decision for End Of Mission (EOM) and at the 30 minute Return To Launch Site (RTLS) decision at the Shuttle Landing Facility. Convective initiation, timing, and mode also present a forecast challenge for the NWS in Melbourne, FL (MLB). The NWS MLB issues such tactical forecast information as Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs), Spot Forecasts for fire weather and hazardous materials incident support, and severe/hazardous weather Watches, Warnings, and Advisories. Lastly, these forecasting challenges can also affect the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), which provides comprehensive weather forecasts for shuttle launch, as well as ground operations, at KSC and CCAFS. The need for accurate mesoscale model forecasts to aid in their decision making is crucial. Both the SMG and the MLB are currently implementing the Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System (WRF EMS) software into their operations. The WRF EMS software allows users to employ both dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). There are also data assimilation analysis packages available for the initialization of the WRF model- the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS). Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many options within each core, provides SMG and NWS MLB with a lot of flexibility. It also creates challenges, such as determining which configuration options are best to address specific forecast concerns. The goal of this project is to assess the different configurations available and to determine which configuration will best predict warm season convective initiation in East-Central Florida. Four different combinations of WRF initializations will be run (ADAS-ARW, ADAS-NMM, LAPS-ARW, and LAPS-NMM) at a 4-km resolution over the Florida peninsula and adjacent coastal waters. Five candidate convective initiation days using three different flow regimes over East-Central Florida will be examined, as well as two null cases (non-convection days). Each model run will be integrated 12 hours with three runs per day, at 0900, 1200, and 1500 UTe. ADAS analyses will be generated every 30 minutes using Level II Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) data from all Florida radars to verify the convection forecast. These analyses will be run on the same domain as the four model configurations. To quantify model performance, model output will be subjectively compared to the ADAS analyses of convection to determine forecast accuracy. In addition, a subjective comparison of the performance of the ARW using a high-resolution local grid with 2-way nesting, I-way nesting, and no nesting will be made for select convective initiation cases. The inner grid will cover the East-Central Florida region at a resolution of 1.33 km. The authors will summarize the relative skill of the various WRF configurations and how each configuration behaves relative to the others, as well as determine the best model configuration for predicting warm season convective initiation over East-Central Florida.
Watson, Leela R.; Hoeth, Brian; Blottman, Peter F.
Delaying the date of maximum flood control drawdown at large storage reservoirs will provide benefits to ecosystem health, power generation, and water supply reliability. This project focuses on using climate-based information to extend predictions of spring runoff to lead times greater than 10 days. Current operation within the Columbia River storage system relies on static rule curves for flood management.
D. A. Raff
The NYC water supply system serves 9 million people with over 1 BGD of water drawn from 19 reservoirs. To support operation of the system to meet multiple objectives (e.g. supply reliability, water quality, environmental releases, hydropower, peak flow mitigation), the New York City Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) is developing an Operations Support Tool (OST), a forecast-based decision support system that provides a probabilistic foundation for water supply operations and planning. Key features of OST include: the ability to run both long-term simulations and short-term probabilistic simulations on the same model platform; automated processing of near-real-time (NRT) data sources; use of inflow forecasts to support look-ahead operational simulations; and water supply-water quality model linkage to account for feedback and tradeoffs between supply and quality objectives. OST supports two types of simulations. Long-term runs execute the system model over an extended historical record and are used to evaluate reservoir operating rules, infrastructure modifications, and climate change scenarios (with inflows derived from downscaled GCM data). Short-term runs for operational guidance consist of multiple (e.g. 80+) short (e.g. one year) runs, all starting from the same initial conditions (typically those of the current day). Ensemble reservoir inflow forecast traces are used to drive the model for the duration of the simulation period. The result of these runs is a distribution of potential future system states. DEP managers analyze the distributions for alternate scenarios and make operations decisions using risk-based metrics such as probability of refill or the likelihood of a water quality event. For operational simulations, the OST data system acquires NRT data from DEP internal sources (SCADA operations data, keypoint water quality, in-stream/in-reservoir water quality, meteorological and snowpack monitoring sites). OST acquires streamflow data from USGS and ensemble inflow forecasts from the National Weather Service (NWS). Incoming data passes through an automated flagging/filling process, and data is presented to operators for approval prior to use as model input. OST allows the user to drive operational runs with two types of ensemble inflow forecasts. Statistical forecasts are based on historical inflows that are conditioned on antecedent hydrology. The statistical algorithm is relatively simple and versatile and is useful for longer-term projections. For improved short-term skill, OST will rely on NWS meteorologically-based ensemble forecasts. A post-processor within OST will provide bias correction for the NWS ensembles. OST applications to date have included routine short-term operational projections to support release decisions, analysis of tradeoffs between water supply and water quality during turbidity events, facility outage planning, development of operating rules and release policies, long-term water supply planning, and climate change assessment. The structure and capabilities of OST are expected to be a useful template for drinking water utilities and water system managers seeking to integrate forecasts into system operations and balance tradeoffs between competing objectives in both near-term operations and long-term planning.
Pyke, G.; Porter, J.
An automated air quality forecast bias correction scheme based on the short-term persistence of model bias with respect to recent observations is described. The scheme has been implemented in the operational Met Office five day regional air quality forecast for the UK. It has been evaluated against routine hourly pollution observations for a year-long hindcast. The results demonstrate the value of the scheme in improving performance. For the first day of the forecast the post-processing reduces the bias from 7.02 to 0.53 ?g m-3 for O3, from -4.70 to -0.63 ?g m-3 for NO2, from -4.00 to -0.13 ?g m-3 for PM2.5 and from -7.70 to -0.25 ?g m-3 for PM10. Other metrics also improve for all species. An analysis of the variation of forecast skill with lead-time is presented and demonstrates that the post-processing increases forecast skill out to five days ahead.
Neal, L. S.; Agnew, P.; Moseley, S.; Ordóñez, C.; Savage, N. H.; Tilbee, M.
The impact of more timely and accurate weather data on airline flight planning with the emphasis on fuel savings is studied. This volume of the report discusses the results of Task 4 of the four major tasks included in the study. Task 4 uses flight plan segment wind and temperature differences as indicators of dates and geographic areas for which significant forecast errors may have occurred. An in-depth analysis is then conducted for the days identified. The analysis show that significant errors occur in the operational forecast on 15 of the 33 arbitrarily selected days included in the study. Wind speeds in an area of maximum winds are underestimated by at least 20 to 25 kts. on 14 of these days. The analysis also show that there is a tendency to repeat the same forecast errors from prog to prog. Also, some perceived forecast errors from the flight plan comparisons could not be verified by visual inspection of the corresponding National Meteorological Center forecast and analyses charts, and it is likely that they are the result of weather data interpolation techniques or some other data processing procedure in the airlines' flight planning systems.
Keitz, J. F.
On November 4 th, 2011, the city of Genoa was affected by a torrential convective rainfall episode. The finger-shape mesoscale system remained stationary for a significant number of hours on the same area of few square kilometers. About 500 millimeters of rain, one third of the average annual precipitation amount, fell in approximately six hours. A flash flood occurred in the Bisagno river and Fereggiano creek, causing six causalities and the inundation of the Brignole area. For the catchments, where flood events usually occur in a few hours time and peak discharge generally last only a few minutes, it is necessary to use high resolution meteorological data as an input to hydrological model. The effectiveness of flood warning is dependent on the forecast accuracy of certain physical parameters, such as the peak magnitude of the flood, its timing, location and duration. The conceptual HBV rainfall - runoff models enable the estimation of these parameters and provide useful operational forecasts. This paper presents the results of coupled meteorological WRF-NMM and hydrological HBV model. Hourly quantitative precipitation forecasts, for three days ahead, were used as input to the conceptual hydrological model. HBV model was able to predict significant increase of water level with exceedance of regular defence level and exact time of the flood peak on the observed hydrological profile even weather forecast model wasn't successful in the predicition of the hourly amount of precipitation.
Ivkovic, Marija; Dekic, Ljiljana; Mihalovic, Ana
Besides being used as operational regional forecasting tools, mesoscale meteorological models have also been used for research purposes to advance the understanding of regional-scale processes and help the development of parameterizations for use in larger-scale weather forecast and climate prediction models. Several previous studies have compared the performance of two or more mesoscale models using either long-term observations or data from short-term field campaigns. This kind of studies over the ocean, in particular in coastal environments, is nevertheless scarcer. The forecasting of winds, temperature, clouds and precipitation, visibly, and boundary layer structure, while challenging in any region, become particularly complex near coastlines, where processes associated with the coastal boundary adds additional complexity: interaction between terrain-induced flows and sea/land breezes, sharp sea-land temperature gradients, highly baroclinic environment, complex air-sea exchanging processes, etc. The present study evaluates the forecasting skills of the mesoscale models MM5 and WRF in a demanding coastal environment, with high mountainous coast lines, and sharp sea-land temperature gradients. The models are compared against intensive observations collected during the Ligurian Sea Air-Sea Interaction Experience (LASIE), which took place from 16 to 22 June 2007. High resolution simulations (6 km and 2 km) are compared to near surface observations from a spar buoy. Radiosonde profiles from two research ships, in the vicinity of the buoy, are also compared to the models.
Tomé, Ricardo; Semedo, Alvaro; Teixeira, João.; Sempreviva, Anna Maria; Schiano, Maria; Miranda, Pedro
Methods to accurately assess and forecast flood discharge are mandatory to minimise the impact of hydrological hazards. However, existing rainfall-runoff models rarely accurately consider the spatial characteristics of the watershed, which is essential for a suitable and physics-based description of processes relevant for runoff formation. Spatial information with low temporal variability like elevation, slopes and land use can be mapped or extracted from remote sensing data. However, land surface param- eters of high temporal variability, like soil moisture and snow properties are hardly available and used in operational forecasts. Remote sensing methods can improve flood forecast by providing information on the actual water retention capacities in the watershed and facilitate the regionalisation of hydrological models. To prove and demonstrate this, the project 'InFerno' (Integration of remote sensing data in opera- tional water balance and flood forecast modelling) has been set up, funded by DLR (50EE0053). Within InFerno remote sensing data (optical and microwave) are thor- oughly processed to deliver spatially distributed parameters of snow properties and soil moisture. Especially during the onset of a flood this information is essential to estimate the initial conditions of the model. At the flood forecast centres of 'Baden- Württemberg' and 'Rheinland-Pfalz' (Southwest Germany) the remote sensing based maps on soil moisture and snow properties will be integrated in the continuously op- erated water balance and flood forecast model LARSIM. The concept is to transfer the developed methodology from the Neckar to the Mosel basin. The major challenges lie on the one hand in the implementation of algorithms developed for a multisensoral synergy and the creation of robust, operationally applicable remote sensing products. On the other hand, the operational flood forecast must be adapted to make full use of the new data sources. In the operational phase of the project ESA's ENVISAT satellite, which will be launched in 2002, will serve as remote sensing data source. Until EN- VISAT data is available, algorithm retrieval, software development and product gener- ation is performed using existing sensors with ENVISAT-like specifications. Based on these data sets test cases and demonstration runs are conducted and will be presented to prove the advantages of the approach.
Bach, H.; Appel, F.; Schulz, W.; Merkel, U.; Ludwig, R.; Mauser, W.
The Weather Research and Forecasting For Grid (WRF4G) project is a two-year Spanish National R&D project, which has started in 2011. It is now a well established project, involving scientists and technical staff from several institutions, which contribute results to international initiatives such as CORDEX and European FP7 projects such as SPECS and EUPORIAS. The aim of the WRF4G project is to homogenize access hybrid Distributed Computer Infrastructures (DCIs), such as HPC and Grid infrastructures, for climate researchers. Additionally, it provides a productive interface to accomplish ambitious climate experiments such as regional hind-cast/forecast and sensitivity studies. Although Grid infrastructures are very powerful, they have some drawbacks for executing climate applications such as the WRF model. This makes necessary to encapsulate the applications in a middleware in order to provide the appropriate services for monitoring and management. Therefore, the challenge of the WRF4G project is to develop a generic adaptation framework (WRF4G framework) to disseminate it to the scientific community. The framework aims at simplifying the model access by releasing climate scientists from technical and computational aspects. In this contribution, we present some new advances of the WRF4G framework, including new components for designing experiments, simulation monitoring and data management. Additionally, we will show how WRF4G makes possible to run complex experiments on EGI infrastructures concurrently over several VOs such as esr and earth.vo.ibergrid. http://www.meteo.unican.es/software/wrf4g This work has been partially funded by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) and the Spanish National R&D Plan 2008-2011 (CGL2011-28864, WRF4G)
Blanco, Carlos; Cofino, Antonio S.; Fernández Quiruelas, Valvanuz; García, Markel; Fernández, Jesús
An emissions processing system has been developed to incorporate near-real-time emissions from wildfires and large prescribed burns into Environment Canada's real-time GEM-MACH air quality (AQ) forecast system. Since the GEM-MACH forecast domain covers Canada and most of the USA, including Alaska, fire location information is needed for both of these large countries. Near-real-time satellite data are obtained and processed separately for the two countries for organizational reasons. Fire location and fuel consumption data for Canada are provided by the Canadian Forest Service's Canadian Wild Fire Information System (CWFIS) while fire location and emissions data for the U.S. are provided by the SMARTFIRE (Satellite Mapping Automated Reanalysis Tool for Fire Incident Reconciliation) system via the on-line BlueSky Gateway. During AQ model runs, emissions from individual fire sources are injected into elevated model layers based on plume-rise calculations and then transport and chemistry calculations are performed. This 'on the fly' approach to the insertion of emissions provides greater flexibility since on-line meteorology is used and reduces computational overhead in emission pre-processing. An experimental wildfire version of GEM-MACH was run in real-time mode for the summers of 2012 and 2013. 48-hour forecasts were generated every 12 hours (at 00 and 12 UTC). Noticeable improvements in the AQ forecasts for PM2.5 were seen in numerous regions where fire activity was high. Case studies evaluating model performance for specific regions, computed objective scores, and subjective evaluations by AQ forecasters will be included in this presentation. Using the lessons learned from the last two summers, Environment Canada will continue to work towards the goal of incorporating near-real-time intermittent wildfire emissions within the operational air quality forecast system.
Pavlovic, R.; Menard, S.; Chen, J.; Anselmo, D.; Paul-Andre, B.; Gravel, S.; Moran, M. D.; Davignon, D.
Numerous aerosol plumes were measured during the MILAGRO field campaign in and around Mexico City using ground, air and space measurements. The airborne NASA Langley Research Center High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL) measured aerosol properties along urban transects. Mesoscale meteorological simulations using the Weather and Research Forecast (WRF) model were used to calculate particle trajectories in the basin using WRF-FLEXPART
B. de Foy; J. W. Hair; M. D. Obland; R. Rogers; R. A. Ferrare; C. A. Hostetler; L. T. Molina
The current state of the art of wind power forecasting in the 0- to 6-hour time frame has levels of uncertainty that are adding increased costs and risk on the U.S. electrical grid. It is widely recognized within the electrical grid community that improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind energy. The U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored a research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: 1) a 1-year field measurement campaign within two regions; 2) enhancement of NOAA's experimental 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the field campaign; and 3) evaluation of the economic and reliability benefits of improved forecasts to grid operators. This paper and presentation provides an overview of the regions selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis.
Orwig, K.; Clark, C.; Cline, J.; Benjamin, S.; Wilczak, J.; Marquis, M.; Finley, C.; Stern, A.; Freedman, J.
Operational control and forecast of the Earth’s radiation environment is very topical both for solving fundamental scientific problems of solar-terrestrial physics, and for providing safety of space missions and polar aviation. Therefore, data of experiments onboard LEO (low-altitudes polar) spacecraft are very important. Now, a lot of data of experiments are available, including measurements of LEO spacecraft like "Meteor-M No. 1" and POES NOAA series. In the nearest future, new Russian satellites RELEC and "Lomonosov" will be launched to LEO orbit. However, data transmitted from LEO spacecraft has specific character connected with the features of LEO orbit: a spacecraft consistently passes different areas of near-Earth space - polar caps, area of outer Earth’s radiations Belts (ERB), middle latitudes, inner ERB. No public systems intended for analysis of radiation conditions at low altitudes, which could allow quick comparison of data obtained in L1 point with those from LEO and GEO, were created until now. The other important problem is forecasting of the near-Earth radiation environment state which is of key importance for space weather. The described problems are solved by the operational system of monitoring and forecasting of the radiation state of near-Earth environment, created at SINP MSU. The system of short-term (one hour ahead) forecasting of solar energetic particles (SEP) and relativistic electron fluxes at GEO operates on the base of artificial neural networks. The system also predicts the extreme location of SEP penetration boundary in the Earth’s magnetosphere at low altitudes and the high latitude boundary of outer ERB. Both predicted locations depend on Dst and Kp values, which, in turn, are predicted one hour ahead by artificial neural networks. The system operates in the framework of Space monitoring data center of the Moscow State University - http://swx.sinp.msu.ru/radiastatus/currentStatus.php.
Myagkova, Irina; Bobrovnikov, Sergey; Kalegaev, Vladimir; Barinova, Vera; Dolenko, Sergey; Shiroky, Vladimir
This Web-based module is a component of the Integrated Sensor Training (IST) Professional Development Series (PDS) Professional Competency Unit #6-Satellite Data and Products. This module provides a closer look at the capabilities, products, and applications available to operational weather forecasting with the present suite of microwave instruments onboard both NOAA and DMSP satellites. If you wish, you may launch the module from this page.
Lightning is one of Earth s natural dangers, destructive not only to life but also physical property. According to the National Weather Service, there are on average 58 lightning fatalities each year, with over 300 related injuries (NWS 2010). The ability to forecast lightning is critical to a host of activities ranging from space vehicle launch operations to recreational sporting events. For example a single lightning strike to a Space Shuttle could cause billions of dollars of damage and possible loss of life. While forecasting that provides longer lead times could provide sporting officials with more time to respond to possible threatening weather events, thus saving the lives of player and bystanders. Many researchers have developed and tested different methods and tools of first flash forecasting, however few have done so using dual-polarimetric radar variables and products on an operational basis. The purpose of this study is to improve algorithms for the short-term prediction of lightning initiation through development and testing of operational techniques that rely on parameters observed and diagnosed using C-band dual-polarimetric radar.
Woodard, Crystal; Carey, Lawrence D.; Petersen, Walter A.; Felix, Mariana; Roeder, William P.
of the major types of solar eruption, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) not only impact space weather, but also can have significant societal consequences. CMEs cause intense geomagnetic storms and drive fast mode shocks that accelerate charged particles, potentially resulting in enhanced radiation levels both in ions and electrons. Human and technological assets in space can be endangered as a result. CMEs are also the major contributor to generating large amplitude Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs), which are a source of concern for power grid safety. Due to their space weather significance, forecasting the evolution and impacts of CMEs has become a much desired capability for space weather operations worldwide. Based on our operational experience at Space Weather Research Center at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov), we present here some of the insights gained about accurately predicting CME impacts, particularly in relation to space weather operations. These include: 1. The need to maximize information to get an accurate handle of three-dimensional (3-D) CME kinetic parameters and therefore improve CME forecast; 2. The potential use of CME simulation results for qualitative prediction of regions of space where solar energetic particles (SEPs) may be found; 3. The need to include all CMEs occurring within a ~24 h period for a better representation of the CME interactions; 4. Various other important parameters in forecasting CME evolution in interplanetary space, with special emphasis on the CME propagation direction. It is noted that a future direction for our CME forecasting is to employ the ensemble modeling approach.
Zheng, Yihua; Macneice, Peter; Odstrcil, Dusan; Mays, M. L.; Rastaetter, Lutz; Pulkkinen, Antti; Taktakishvili, Aleksandre; Hesse, Michael; Masha Kuznetsova, M.; Lee, Hyesook; Chulaki, Anna
In anticipation of the upcoming GOES-R launch we simulate visible and near-infrared reflectances of the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) for cases of high aerosol loading containing regional haze and smoke over the eastern United States. The simulations are performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE), and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) models. Geostationary, satellite-derived, biomass-burning emissions are also included as an input to CMAQ. Using the CMAQ aerosol concentrations and Mie calculations, radiance is computed from the discrete ordinate atmospheric radiative transfer model. We present detailed methods for deriving aerosol extinction from WRF and CMAQ outputs. Our results show that the model simulations create a realistic set of reflectances in various aerosol scenarios. The simulated reflectances provide distinct spectral features of aerosols which are then compared to data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We also present a simple technique to synthesize green band reflectance (which will not be available on the ABI), using the model-simulated blue and red band reflectance. This study is an example of the use of air quality modeling in improving products and techniques for Earth-observing missions.
Christopher, S. A.
The primary focus of this paper is to simulate visible and near-infrared reflectances of the GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) for cases of high aerosol loading containing regional haze and smoke over the eastern United States. The simulations are performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE), and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) models. Geostationary satellite-derived biomass burning emissions are also included as an input to CMAQ. Using the CMAQ aerosol concentrations and Mie calculations, radiance is computed from the discrete ordinate atmospheric radiative transfer model. We present detailed methods for deriving aerosol extinction from WRF and CMAQ outputs. Our results show that the model simulations create a realistic set of reflectance in various aerosol scenarios. The simulated reflectance provides distinct spectral features of aerosols which is then compared to data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We also present a simple technique to synthesize green band reflectance (which will not be available on the ABI), using the model-simulated blue and red band reflectance. This study is an example of the use of air quality modeling in improving products and techniques for Earth observing missions.
Christopher, S. A.
The aim of this study is to investigate the role of the assimilation of Doppler weather radar (DWR) data in a mesoscale model for the forecast of a heavy rainfall event that occurred in Italy in the urban area of Rome from 19 to 22 May 2008. For this purpose, radar reflectivity and radial velocity acquired from Monte Midia Doppler radar are assimilated into the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model, version 3.4.1. The general goal is to improve the quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF): with this aim, several experiments are performed using the three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) technique. Moreover, sensitivity tests to outer loops are performed to include non-linearity in the observation operators. In order to identify the best initial conditions (ICs), statistical indicators such as forecast accuracy, frequency bias, false alarm rate and equitable threat score for the accumulated precipitation are used. The results show that the assimilation of DWR data has a large impact on both the position of convective cells and on the rainfall forecast of the analyzed event. A positive impact is also found if they are ingested together with conventional observations. Sensitivity to the use of two or three outer loops is also found if DWR data are assimilated together with conventional data.
Maiello, I.; Ferretti, R.; Gentile, S.; Montopoli, M.; Picciotti, E.; Marzano, F. S.; Faccani, C.
Nowadays Grid Computing is powerful computational tool which is ready to be used for scientific community in different areas (such as biomedicine, astrophysics, climate, etc.). However, the use of this distributed computing infrastructures (DCI) is not yet common practice in climate research, and only a few teams and applications in this area take advantage of this infrastructure. Thus, the WRF4G project objective is to popularize the use of this technology in the atmospheric sciences area. In order to achieve this objective, one of the most used applications has been taken (WRF; a limited- area model, successor of the MM5 model), that has a user community formed by more than 8000 researchers worldwide. This community develop its research activity on different areas and could benefit from the advantages of Grid resources (case study simulations, regional hind-cast/forecast, sensitivity studies, etc.). The WRF model is used by many groups, in the climate research community, to carry on downscaling simulations. Therefore this community will also benefit. However, Grid infrastructures have some drawbacks for the execution of applications that make an intensive use of CPU and memory for a long period of time. This makes necessary to develop a specific framework (middleware). This middleware encapsulates the application and provides appropriate services for the monitoring and management of the simulations and the data. Thus,another objective of theWRF4G project consists on the development of a generic adaptation of WRF to DCIs. It should simplify the access to the DCIs for the researchers, and also to free them from the technical and computational aspects of the use of theses DCI. Finally, in order to demonstrate the ability of WRF4G solving actual scientific challenges with interest and relevance on the climate science (implying a high computational cost) we will shown results from different kind of downscaling experiments, like ERA-Interim re-analysis, CMIP5 models, or seasonal. WRF4G is been used to run WRF simulations which are contributing to the CORDEX initiative and others projects like SPECS and EUPORIAS. This work is been partially funded by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) and the Spanish National R&D Plan 2008-2011 (CGL2011-28864)
Cofino, A. S.; Fernández Quiruelas, V.; Blanco Real, J. C.; García Díez, M.; Fernández, J.
Operational Forecasters' Professional Development Series Training Program A concept paper approach that recognizes the distinct roles that various training centers and functions within the National describes how these training centers and functions will be able to utilize the instructional design
The impact of more timely and accurate weather data on airline flight planning with the emphasis on fuel savings is studied. This volume of the report discusses the results of Task 1 of the four major tasks included in the study. Task 1 compares flight plans based on forecasts with plans based on the verifying analysis from 33 days during the summer and fall of 1979. The comparisons show that: (1) potential fuel savings conservatively estimated to be between 1.2 and 2.5 percent could result from using more timely and accurate weather data in flight planning and route selection; (2) the Suitland forecast generally underestimates wind speeds; and (3) the track selection methodology of many airlines operating on the North Atlantic may not be optimum resulting in their selecting other than the optimum North Atlantic Organized Track about 50 percent of the time.
Keitz, J. F.
For the first time, the long-term evaluation of an operational real-time air quality forecasting and analysis system is presented, using error statistics over 3 consecutive years. This system, called PREV'AIR, is the French air quality forecasting and monitoring system. It became operational in 2003 as a result of a cooperation between several public organizations. The system forecasts and analyzes air quality throughout Europe, with a zoom over France, for regulatory pollutants: ozone (O3), particulate matter with diameter smaller than 10 ?m (PM10), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). The ability of PREV'AIR to forecast, up to 3 days ahead, photochemical and particle pollution over the domains considered is demonstrated: daily ozone maxima forecasts correlate with observations with 0.75-0.85 mean coefficients; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency acceptance criteria relative to the forecast accuracy for high concentrations and daily maxima are met for more than 90% of the measurement sites. For NO2 and PM10, the performance corresponds to the state of the art. The contribution of weather forecast errors to air quality predictability is addressed: ozone daily maxima forecast errors are not dominated by meteorological forecast errors; for rural stations, only 6% (15% and 25%, respectively) of the error variance is due to meteorological forecast errors on the first 24 (48 and 72, respectively) hours. The Model Output Statistics procedure, implemented in PREV'AIR, is proved to improve ozone forecasts, especially when photochemical pollution episodes occur. The PREV'AIR real-time analysis procedure, based on a kriging method, provides an accurate and comprehensive description of surface ozone fields over France.
Honoré, CéCile; RouïL, Laurence; Vautard, Robert; Beekmann, Matthias; Bessagnet, Bertrand; Dufour, Anne; Elichegaray, Christian; Flaud, Jean-Marie; Malherbe, Laure; Meleux, FréDéRik; Menut, Laurent; Martin, Daniel; Peuch, Aline; Peuch, Vincent-Henri; Poisson, Nathalie
The complex calculations inherent in tsunami forecast models once required supercomputers to solve and could only be deployed in an operational setting as a database of precomputed best-guess solutions for likely future tsunamis. More recently scientists at the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) developed a tsunami forecast model, RIFT, that takes an earthquake's centroid moment tensor solution—either from nearby historic events or rapidly determined by W-phase analysis—and solves the linear shallow water equations in real time with commercial off-the-shelf computer servers and open-source software tools (Wang et al., 2009). RIFT not only rapidly calculates tsunami forecasts in real time, but also generates and archives data grids easily ingested by other software packages to generate maps and animations in a variety of image, video, and geobrowser file formats (e.g., KML). These graphical products aid both operational and outreach efforts as they help PTWC scientists to rapidly ingest and comprehend large, complex data sets, to share these data with emergency managers, and to educate the general public about the behavior of tsunamis. Prior to developing animation capability PTWC used tsunami travel time contour maps to show expected arrival times of the first tsunami waves. Though useful to expert users, such maps can mislead a nonexpert as they do not show amplitude information and give the impression that tsunami waves have constant amplitudes throughout an ocean basin. A tsunami forecast "energy map" improves tsunami hazard communication by showing the variability in maximum wave heights, but does not show the timing of the maximum wave arrivals. A tsunami forecast animation, however, shows both how fast the tsunami will move and the distribution of its amplitudes over time, thus communicating key concepts about tsunami behavior such as reflection and refraction of waves, that the first arriving wave is not necessarily the largest wave, and that tsunami wave oscillations can last for hours or days. Tsunami wave propagation animations are not new, but the speed of the RIFT calculations and modern computer hardware allow PTWC to generate a global-domain animation with 4-arc-minute resolution in less than two hours of real time, fast enough to provide decision support in tsunami warning operations and to share these animations with emergency managers and the public before the tsunami impacts threatened coastlines in the far field.
Becker, N. C.; Wang, D.; Fryer, G. J.; Weinstein, S.
Granite Peak, located in the Dugway Proving Ground (DPG) in western Utah, is an isolated mountain rising ~800 m above the surrounding terrain. It has an approximately ellipsoidal shape oriented in the NNW-SSE direction and its main axes are respectively ~10- and ~6-km long. A flat dry lake (playa) lies west and northwest of the peak, while a NW-sloping plain covered by herbaceous vegetation extends to the eastern part of DPG. Because of these topography and land-use features, a variety of different flow phenomena are expected to occur over and around Granite Peak. These include upslope and drainage winds, local breeze systems, gap flows, dynamically accelerated downslope winds and potentially boundary layer separation and the formation of wakes. Consequently, the area is an ideal location for studying the interaction between mountain flows and the atmospheric boundary layer. Since the 1990s, DPG has used a continuously operating meso-gamma-scale analysis and forecast system (4DWX) developed by the NCAR's Research Applications Laboratory (RAL). The system is based on WRF, runs with a grid spacing of 1.1-km in its innermost domain, applies observational nudging in a three-hour cycle, and provides weather analyses and forecasts at hourly intervals. In this study, model output from the 4DWX system is used to build a short-term climatography (2010-2012) of the prevailing boundary layer flow regimes in DPG. Measurements from the network of Surface Area Mesonet Stations (SAMS) operative at DPG are used to verify the quality of 4DWX simulations and their ability to reproduce the dominant flow patterns. The study then focuses on boundary-layer separation (BLS) events: near-surface wind, temperature and pressure fields from 4DWX are analysed in order to identify the most favorable regions for the onset of separation. A limited set of events, identified by means of an objective procedure, is then studied in detail in order to understand the preferred conditions for the development of the phenomenon. S-SW flows with considerable near-surface veering and an embedded low-level jet are found to be the most common scenario leading to leeside boundary-layer separation. Example of a BLS event in the lee of Granite Peak (near gridpoints x=12, y=15). Near-surface wind speed (in m/s) and vectors are displayed on the 4DWX model grid (?x: 1.1 km).
Serafin, S.; De Wekker, S.; Knievel, J. C.
The ability of the fully coupling of Weather Research & Forecasting Model (WRF) and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model to produce hydrological and climate variables was evaluated. First, the VIC model was run by using observed meteorological data and calibrated in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) from 1980 to 2010. Subsequently, a simulation based on an offline linkage of WRF and VIC was performed in the UMRB with the calibrated parameters established above from 2006 to 2009. Lastly, a simulation of fully coupled WRF and VIC through a coupler was performed in the UMRB. The performance of the fully couple of WRF and VIC was assessed with respect to key simulated variables through a comparison with the offline couple of WRF and VIC models, and well calibrated VIC model. Spatiotemporal comparisons of the simulated evaporation (ET), soil moisture (SM), runoff, and baseflow produced by the VIC calibrated run (base data), offline coupling, and fully coupling run were conducted. The results showed that: 1) the fully couple of VIC with WRF was able to achieve good agreement in the simulation of soil moisture and evaporation, 2) The fully coupling has significant improvement in simulation of runoff and baseflow in compare with the results from offline coupling. These suggest the VIC coupling should function without causing a large change in the moisture budget.
Tang, C.; Dennis, R. L.
In this paper, an approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the "flying-brick" technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through integration with an EMS system illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems from other vendors.
Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Subbarao, Krishnappa
An approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. An assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty - both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures). A new method called the 'flying-brick' technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through EMS integration illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems in control rooms.
Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Huang, Zhenyu; Subbarao, Krishnappa
This paper presents a validation of the short and medium term global irradiance forecasts that are produced as part of the US data set. The short term forecasts that extend up to 6-h ahead are based upon cloud motion derived from consecutive geostationary satellite images. The medium term forecasts extend up to 6-days-ahead and are modeled from gridded cloud cover forecasts from the US National Digital Forecast Database. The forecast algorithms are validated against ground measurements for seven climatically distinct locations in the United States for 1 year. An initial analysis of regional performance using satellite-derived irradiances as a benchmark reference is also presented. (author)
Perez, Richard; Kivalov, Sergey; Schlemmer, James; Hemker, Karl Jr. [ASRC, University at Albany, Albany, New York (United States); Renne, David [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, Colorado (United States); Hoff, Thomas E. [Clean Power Research, Napa, California (United States)
Lightning plays a pivotal role in the operation decision process for space and ballistic launches at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center. Lightning forecasts are the responsibility of Detachment 11, 4th Weather Wing's Cape Canaveral Forecast Facility. These forecasts are important to daily ground processing as well as launch countdown decisions. The methodology and equipment used to forecast lightning are discussed. Impact on a recent mission is summarized.
Weems, J.; Wyse, N.; Madura, J.; Secrist, M.; Pinder, C.
: Implications for Forecasts of Future Profitability ABSTRACT Academic research and financial statement analysis Profitability* ADAM ESPLIN, Indiana University MAX HEWITT, Indiana University MARLENE PLUMLEE, University activities is useful for forecasting profitability and valuation. Consistent with this notion, the accounting
Studies have shown that radar data assimilation can help with short-term prediction of convective weather by providing more accurate initial condition. However, it remains a big challenge to accurately describe the moist convective processes, especially the ice microphysics of convection, which is crucial for the modeling of quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF). Dual-polarimetric (dual-pol) radar typically transmits both horizontally and vertically polarized radio wave pulses. From the two different reflected power returns, information on the type, shape, size, and orientation of cloud and precipitation microphysical particles are obtained, more accurate measurement of liquid and solid cloud and precipitation particles can be provided. The assimilation of dual-pol radar data is however, challenging work as few guidelines have been provided on dual-pol radar data assimilation research. It is our goal to examine how to use dual-pol radar data to improve forecast initialization for microphysical properties. This presentation will demonstrate our recent work on developing the forward operators for ice processes with assimilating dual-pol radar data for real case storms. In this study, high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and its 3-Dimensional Variational (3DVAR) data assimilation system are used for real convective storms. Our recent research explores the use of the horizontal reflectivity (ZH), differential reflectivity (ZDR), specific differential phase (KDP), and radial velocity (VR) data for initializing convective storms and snowfall events, with a significant focus on improving representation of ice hydrometeors. Our previous research indicated that the use of ZDR can bring additional benefit into the hydrometeor fields than the use of ZH only. Furthermore, the combination of KDP and ZDR data provide the best initialization for precipitation particles with warm-rain radar data assimilation. Our ongoing work includes the development of forward model for ice microphysics processes within the 3DVAR assimilation procedure. The ice processes can help to describe the ice particles more precisely at and above the melting layer. In addition to forward model development, high-resolution (?1 km) WRF model simulations and convective scale data assimilation experiments with WRF 3DVAR system will be discussed, emphasizing both warm rain and ice microphysical processes. Further details of the methodology of data assimilation, the influences of different dual-pol variables, the impact of the dual-pol data on microphysical properties, and the information content of the dual-pol variables and observational operators will also be presented at the conference.
Li, X.; Mecikalski, J. R.; Fehnel, T.; Posselt, D. J.
In recent years, the interest in the prediction and prevention of natural hazards related to hydro-meteorological events has increased the challenge for numerical weather modelling, in particular for limited area models, to improve the Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs) for hydrological purposes. The development and implementation of a real-time flood forecasting system with a hydro-meteorological operational alert procedure during the MAP-D-PHASE Project is described in this paper. D-PHASE stands for Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region and is a Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) of the WWRP (World Weather Research Programme of WMO). It aims at demonstrating some of the many achievements of the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP). The MAP FDP has addressed the entire forecasting chain, ranging from limited-area ensemble forecasting, high-resolution atmospheric modelling (km-scale), hydrological modelling and nowcasting to decision making by the end users, i.e., it is foreseen to set up an end-to-end forecasting system. The D-PHASE Operations Period (DOP) was from 1 June to 30 November 2007. In this study the hydro-meteorological chain includes both probabilistic forecasting based on ensemble prediction systems with lead time of a few days and short-range forecasts based on high resolution deterministic atmospheric models. D-PHASE hydrological ensemble forecasts are based on the 16 meteorological members, provided by COSMO-LEPS model (by ARPA Emilia-Romagna) with 5 day lead-time and a horizontal resolution of 10 km. Deterministic hydrological D-PHASE forecasts are provided by MOLOCH weather model (by ISAC-CNR) with a horizontal resolution of 2.2 km, nested into BOLAM, based on GFS initial and boundary conditions with 48 h lead-time. The hydrological model used to generate the runoff simulations is the rainfall-runoff distributed FEST-WB model, developed at Politecnico di Milano. The observed data to run the control simulations were supplied by ARPA-Piemonte. The analysis is focused on Maggiore Lake basin, an alpine basin between North-West of Italy and Southern Switzerland. The aim of this work is to evaluate how the uncertainty of the QPF affects the reliability of the whole hydro-meteorological alert system for a mountain catchment. Two significant events are analysed in order to compare the behaviour of the model driven by different weather scenarios: one convective in June that has yielded a high peak flow and one light stratiform in November that has been studied for the snow melt temperature which has affected the liquid precipitation and therefore the forecasted runoff.
Ceppi, A.; Ravazzani, G.; Rabuffetti, D.; Mancini, M.
The potential for west Texas ranchers to increase the profitability of their enterprises by becoming more proactive in their management practices by using seasonal climate forecasts is investigated using a focus group and ecological-economic modeling. The focus group felt forecasts could potentially be used in making decisions concerning stocking rates, brush control, and deer herd management. Further, the focus group raised concerns about the potential misuse of `value-added' forage forecasts. These concerns necessitate a revisiting of the value-added concept by the climate-forecasting community. Using only stocking-rate decisions, the potential value of seasonal forage forecasts is estimated. As expected, the economic results suggest the value of the forecasts depends on the restocking and destocking price along with other economic factors. More important, the economic results and focus-group reactions to these results suggest the need for multiyear modeling when examining the potential impact of using improved climate forecasts.
Jochec, Kristi G.; Mjelde, James W.; Lee, Andrew C.; Conner, J. Richard
ABSTRACT Blossom blight forecasting is an important aspect of fire blight, caused by Erwinia amylovora, management for both apple and pear. A comparison of the forecast accuracy of two common fire blight forecasters, MARYBLYT and Cougarblight, was performed with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and 243 data sets. The rain threshold of Cougarblight was analyzed as a separate model termed Cougarblight and rain. Data were used as a whole and then grouped into geographic regions and cultivar susceptibilities. Frequency distributions of cases and controls, orchards or regions (depending on the data set), with and without observed disease, respectively, in all data sets overlapped. MARYBLYT, Cougarblight, and Cougarblight and rain all predicted blossom blight infection better than chance (P = 0.05). It was found that the blossom blight forecasters performed equivalently in the geographic regions of the east and west coasts of North America and moderately susceptible cultivars based on the 95% confidence intervals and pairwise contrasts of the area under the ROC curve. Significant differences (P < 0.05) between the forecasts of Cougarblight and MARYBLYT were found with pairwise contrasts in the England and very susceptible cultivar data sets. Youden's index was used to determine the optimal cutpoint of both forecasters. The greatest sensitivity and specificity for MARYBLYT coincided with the use of the highest risk threshold for predictions of infection; with Cougarblight, there was no clear single risk threshold across all data sets. PMID:18944181
Dewdney, M M; Biggs, A R; Turechek, W W
Weather forecasting authorities are perceiving increasing pressure from the public to extend and improve the quality of short-range predictions while reducing costs and increasing the overall forecasting efficiency. The European community is strongly committed to attain this increased efficiency by focusing on the observational component of the weather forecasting process. One important research commitment is oriented to optimize the integrated observing system networks to achieve better representations of the atmosphere and eventually more accurate forecasts. In this context, sensitivity analysis techniques aim at identifying causal atmospheric structures that have a relevant effect on a particular aspect of interest, such as strong winds or heavy rains. Indeed, information derived from such sensitivity analysis should be the guiding basis for decision makers to focus on areas where an increased observational effort would significantly improve the quality and value of short-range numerical weather predictions across the region. Although several sensitivity calculation techniques exist that aim at computing the relevant areas for a particular weather event -such as those used in real-time targeting campaigns- permanent redesigns of the observational strategies require climatological sensitivity information. However, no consensus exists on how climatological sensitivity information should be derived or even verified in a relevant and useful way. The aim of this work is twofold, on the one side, the essential results from 3 sensitivity climatologies (an adjoint-based and two different ensemble-based) for the short-range prediction of Mediterranean intense cyclones are presented. On the other hand, a verification testbed to evaluate and compare the skill of each climatological sensitivity estimate is developed. The verification of these climatologies is essential to ensure the reliability of the sensitivity products and ultimately provide robust guidance to policy-makers on plans to redefine routine observational strategies. We propose the use of Observing System Simulation Experiments to quantify the reliability of the available adjoint and ensemble sensitivity climatologies. In particular, verification experiments with the NCAR Advanced Research WRF ARW model are conducted for the 25 most intense Mediterranean cyclones of the ERA-40 database to test the ability of each method in identifying areas where perturbations in the initial conditions derived from the sensitivity fields lead to a greater impact on the forecast of the intense cyclone. For the sake of calibration of the verification results, the performance of the sensitivity climatologies is tested against a reference sensitivity proxy consisting of the judgement of an experienced severe weather meteorologist who was asked to indicate the region where a perturbation in the initial conditions would have the largest impact on the forecasted cyclone's depth. Our results reveal the significantly superior skill of the human and adjoint sensitivity fields against both climatological ensemble sensitivity methods. Also, an optimized ensemble sensitivity climatology based on an ad hoc classification of Mediterranean intense cyclones show a moderate advantage over the previous ensemble sensitivity version.
Garcies Artigues, L.; Homar Santaner, V.
In operational conditions, the actual quality of meteorological and hydrological forecasts do not allow decision-making in a certain future. In this context, meteorological and hydrological ensemble forecasts allow a better representation of forecasts uncertainties. Compared to classical deterministic forecasts, ensemble forecasts improve the human expertise of hydrological forecasts, which is essential to synthesize available informations, coming from different meteorological and hydrological models and human experience. In this paper, we present a hydrological ensemble forecasting system under development at EDF (French Hydropower Company). This forecasting system both takes into account rainfall forecasts uncertainties and hydrological model forecasts uncertainties. Hydrological forecasts were generated using the MORDOR model (Andreassian et al., 2006), developed at EDF and used on a daily basis in operational conditions on a hundred of watersheds. Two sources of rainfall forecasts were used : one is based on ECMWF forecasts, another is based on an analogues approach (Obled et al., 2002). Two methods of hydrological model forecasts uncertainty estimation were used : one is based on the use of equifinal parameter sets (Beven & Binley, 1992), the other is based on the statistical modelisation of the hydrological forecast empirical uncertainty (Montanari et al., 2004 ; Schaefli et al., 2007). Daily operational hydrological 7-day ensemble forecasts during 2 years in 3 alpine watersheds were evaluated. Finally, we present a way to combine rainfall and hydrological model forecast uncertainties to achieve a good probabilistic calibration. Our results show that the combination of ECMWF and analogues-based rainfall forecasts allow a good probabilistic calibration of rainfall forecasts. They show also that the statistical modeling of the hydrological forecast empirical uncertainty has a better probabilistic calibration, than the equifinal parameter set approach. Andreassian et al., 2006. Catalogue of the models used in MOPEX 2004/2005. Large sample basin experiments for hydrological mode parameterisation : results of the Model Parameter Experiment, IAHS Publ. 307, 41-94. Beven & Binley, 1992. The future of distributed models : model calibration and uncertainty prediction. Hydrological Processes, 6, 279-298. Obled, C., Bontron, G., Garçon, R., 2002. Quantitative precipitation forecasts: a statistical adaptation of model outputs though an analogues sorting approach. Atmospheric Research, 63, 303-324. Montanari, A. and Brath, A., 2004. A stochastic approach for assessing the uncertainty of rainfall-runoff simulations. Water Resources Research, 40, W01106, doi:10.1029/2003WR002540. Schaefli, B., Balin Talamba, D. and Musy, A., 2007. Quantifying hydrological modeling errors through a mixture of normal distributions. Journal of Hydrology, 332, 303-315.
Mathevet, T.; Garavaglia, F.; Garçon, R.; Gailhard, J.; Paquet, E.
The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is commonly used to make high resolution future projections of regional climate by downscaling global climate model (GCM) outputs. Because the GCM fields are typically at a much coarser spatial resolution than the target regional downscaled fields, inland lakes are often poorly resolved in the driving global fields, if they are resolved at all. In such an application, using WRF's default interpolation methods can result in unrealistic lake temperatures and ice cover at inland water points. Prior studies have shown that lake temperatures and ice cover impact the simulation of other surface variables, such as air temperatures and precipitation, two fields that are often used in regional climate applications to understand the impacts of climate change on human health and the environment. Here, alternative methods for setting lake surface variables in WRF for downscaling simulations are presented and contrasted.
Mallard, M. S.; Nolte, C. G.; Spero, T. L.; Bullock, O. R.; Alapaty, K.; Herwehe, J. A.; Gula, J.; Bowden, J. H.
Accurate and timely predictions of airline pushbacks can potentially lead to improved performance of automated decision-support tools for airport surface traffic, thus reducing the variability and average duration of costly airline delays. One factor which affects the realization of these benefits is the level of uncertainty inherent in the turn processes. To characterize this inherent uncertainty, three techniques are developed for predicting time-to-go until pushback as a function of available ground-time; elapsed ground-time; and the status (not-started/in-progress/completed) of individual turn processes (cleaning, fueling, etc.). These techniques are tested against a large and detailed dataset covering approximately l0(exp 4) real-world turn operations obtained through collaboration with Deutsche Lufthansa AG. Even after the dataset is filtered to obtain a sample of turn operations with minimal uncertainty, the standard deviation of forecast error for all three techniques is lower-bounded away from zero, indicating that turn operations have a significant stochastic component. This lower-bound result shows that decision-support tools must be designed to incorporate robust mechanisms for coping with pushback demand stochasticity, rather than treating the pushback demand process as a known deterministic input.
Carr, Francis; Theis, Georg; Feron, Eric; Clarke, John-Paul
The NASA/Short-term Prediction, Research, and Transition (SPoRT) Program has been providing unique Red-Green-Blue (RGB) composite imagery to its operational partners since 2005. In the early years of activity these RGB products were related to a True Color RGB, showing what one's own eyes would see if looking down at earth from space, as well as a Snow-Cloud RGB (i.e. False Color), separating clouds from snow on the ground. More recently SPoRT has used the EUMETSAT Best Practices standards for RGB composites to transition a wide array of imagery for multiple uses. A "Dust" RGB product has had particular use at the Albuquerque, New Mexico WFO. Several cases have occurred where users were able to isolate dust plume locations for mesoscale and microscale events during day and night time conditions. In addition the "Dust" RGB can be used for more than just detection of dust as it is sensitive to the changes in density due to atmospheric moisture content. Hence low-level dry boundaries can often be discriminated. This type of imagery is a large change from the single channel imagery typically used by operational forecast staff and hence, can be a challenge to interpret. This presentation aims to discuss the integration of such new imagery into operational use as well as the benefits assessed by the Albuquerque WFO over several documented events.
Fuell, Kevin; Guyer, Brian
The NASA/Short-term Prediction, Research, and Transition (SPoRT) Program has been providing unique Red-Green-Blue (RGB) composite imagery to its operational partners since 2005. In the early years of activity these RGB products were related to a True Color RGB, showing what one's own eyes would see if looking down at earth from space, as well as a Snow-Cloud RGB (i.e. False Color), separating clouds from snow on the ground. More recently SPoRT has used the EUMETSAT Best Practices standards for RGB composites to transition a wide array of imagery for multiple uses. A "Dust" RGB product has had particular use at the Albuquerque, New Mexico WFO. Several cases have occurred where users were able to isolate dust plume locations for mesoscale and microscale events during day and night time conditions. In addition the "Dust" RGB can be used for more than just detection of dust as it is sensitive to the changes in density due to atmospheric moisture content. Hence low-level dry boundaries can often be discriminated. This type of imagery is a large change from the single channel imagery typically used by operational forecast staff and hence, can be a challenge to interpret. This presentation aims to discuss the integration of such new imagery into operational use as well as the benefits assessed by the Albuquerque WFO over several documented events.
Fuell, Kevin; Guyer, Brian
Flooding and the resulting damages occurred in Europe in recent decades showed that the need of a preparation to critical events can be considered as a key factor in reducing their impact on society. It has been shown that early warning systems may reduce significantly the direct and indirect damages and costs of a flood impact. In order to improve the forecasting systems, data assimilation methods were proposed in the last years to integrate real-time observations into hydrological and hydrodynamic models. The aim of this work is to assimilate observations of soil moisture into an operational flood forecasting system in Italy in order to evaluate the effect on the water level along the main river channel. The methodology is applied in the Bacchiglione catchment, located in the North of Italy, having a drainage area of about 1400 km2, length of main reach of 118km and average discharge of 30m3/s at Padova. In order to represent this system, the Bacchiglione basin was considered as a set of different sub-basins characterized by its own hydrologic response and connected each other mainly by propagation phenomena. A 1D hydrodynamic model was then used to estimate water level along the main channel. The assimilation of the soil moisture observations was carried out using a variant of the Kalman filter-based technique. The main idea of this study was to update the model state (the soil water capacity) as response of the distributed information of soil moisture, and then estimate the flow hydrograph at the basin outlet. As a basis we used the approach by Brocca et al.(2012), using a different model structure and with adaption allowing for real-time use. The results of this work show how the added value of soil moisture into the hydrological model can improve the forecast of the flow hydrograph and the consequent water level in the main channel. This study is part of the FP7 European Project WeSenseIt.  Brocca, L., Moramarco, T., Melone, F., Wagner, W., Hasenauer, S., and Hahn, S. (2012) Assimilation of Surface- and Root-Zone ASCAT Soil Moisture Products Into Rainfall-Runoff Modeling, IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, 50(7), 2542-2555
Mazzoleni, Maurizio; Alfonso, Leonardo; Ferri, Michele; Monego, Martina; Norbiato, Daniele; Solomatine, Dimitri P.
the Pennsylvania State University (PSU) real-time convection-permitting hurricane analysis and forecasting system (WRF-EnKF) that assimilates airborne Doppler radar observations, the sensitivity and uncertainty of forecasts initialized several days prior to landfall of Hurricane Sandy (2012) are assessed. The performance of the track and intensity forecasts of both the deterministic and ensemble forecasts by the PSU WRF-EnKF system show significant skill and are comparable to or better than forecasts produced by operational dynamical models, even at lead times of 4-5 days prior to landfall. Many of the ensemble members correctly capture the interaction of Sandy with an approaching midlatitude trough, which precedes Sandy's forecasted landfall in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States. However, the ensemble reveals considerable forecast uncertainties in the prediction of Sandy. For example, in the ensemble forecast initialized at 0000 UTC 26 October 2012, 10 of the 60 members do not predict a United States landfall. Using ensemble composite and sensitivity analyses, the essential dynamics and initial condition uncertainties that lead to forecast divergence among the members in tracks and precipitation are examined. It is observed that uncertainties in the environmental steering flow are the most impactful factor on the divergence of Sandy's track forecasts, and its subsequent interaction with the approaching midlatitude trough. Though the midlatitude system does not strongly influence the final position of Sandy, differences in the timing and location of its interactions with Sandy lead to considerable differences in rainfall forecasts, especially with respect to heavy precipitation over land.
Munsell, Erin B.; Zhang, Fuqing
Despite the long history and the renewed interest in recent years, automatic data assimilation in operational hydrology is yet to find widespread acceptance and use at the National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers (RFCs). To meet the new service needs for uncertainty-quantified high-resolution soil moisture and streamflow information, however, a new paradigm is necessary for operational data assimilation that fully capitalizes on automatic techniques and fast-advancing computing power, and that recognizes, and takes full advantage of, the role of human forecasters in the forecast process. Toward that goal, the NWS Office of Hydrologic Development in collaboration with RFCs and other partners is carrying out a number of data assimilation and related projects. In this talk, we present an overview of these activities in the context of hydrologic ensemble prediction, describe in some detail research, development and research-to-operations transition activities for automatic assimilation of streamflow, soil moisture, precipitation and potential evaporation into lumped and distributed soil moisture accounting and routing models, present results, and identify challenges in assimilating hydrologic and hydrometeorological data toward improving operational hydrologic forecasting.
Seo, D.; Lee, H.; Restrepo, P.
of European air quality: Assessment of 3 years of operational forecasts and analyses by the PREV'AIR system, J- ments are still needed to manage and control the impacts of air pollution on health.  Facing the challenge of reducing the impacts of air pollution on health, one is left with two options: improving air
A transition from deterministic to probabilistic forecasts of the dispersion of emissions from the Kilauea Volcano on the Island of Hawaii is under way. Operational forecasts of volcanic smog (vog) have been produced for 3 years by a custom version of NOAA's Hysplit dispersion model (vog model hereafter), a Lagrangian transport model that uses high-resolution WRF-ARW model output for initial conditions run at the University of Hawaii at Manoa. The vog model has been successful in predicting which locations in the State of Hawaii will be impacted by the vog plume. Initial concentrations of emissions from the volcano are set empirically based on downstream observations provided by the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory. Fast changing meteorological conditions and/or rapid variations in emissions rates cause forecast errors to increase. Recent efforts aim to leverage the parallelism of Hysplit to run ensemble forecasts with various initial condition configurations to better quantify the forecast uncertainty. The ensemble will contain 28 members each with perturbed heights and locations of initial aerosol concentrations. Forecast sulfur dioxide and sulfate aerosol concentrations follow Air Resources Laboratory's Air Quality Index (AQI). The resulting probabilistic forecasts will provide probability of exceedance plots and concentration-probability plots for each AQI level. Because some people are extremely sensitive to low concentrations of sulfate aerosols, the lowest AQI levels will be distinguished in the exceedance map output. Downstream observations at Pahala and Kona will be used to validate the ensemble results, which will also be compared to the results of deterministic forecasts.
Pattantyus, A.; Businger, S.
SummaryResiliency and effectiveness in water resources management of drought is strongly depend on advanced knowledge of drought onset, duration and severity. The motivation of this work is to extend the lead time of operational drought forecasts. The research strategy is to explore the predictability of drought severity from space-time varying indices of large-scale climate phenomena relevant to regional hydrometeorology (e.g. ENSO) by integrating linear and non-linear statistical data models, specifically self-organizing maps (SOM) and multivariate linear regression analysis. The methodology is demonstrated through the step-by-step development of a model to forecast monthly spatial patterns of the standard precipitation index (SPI) within the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) in Australia up to 12 months in advance. First, the rationale for the physical hypothesis and the exploratory data analysis including principal components, wavelet and partial mutual information analysis to identify and select predictor variables are presented. The focus is on spatial datasets of precipitation, sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) patterns over the Indian and Pacific Oceans, temporal and spatial gradients of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) in the Pacific Ocean, and the far western Pacific wind-stress anomaly. Second, the process of model construction, calibration and evaluation is described. The experimental forecasts show that there is ample opportunity to increase the lead time of drought forecasts for decision support using parsimonious data models that capture the governing climate processes at regional scale. OLR gradients proved to be dispensable predictors, whereas SPI-based predictors appear to control predictability when the SSTA in the region [87.5°N-87.5°S; 27.5°E-67.5°W] and eastward wind-stress anomalies in the region [4°N-4°S; 130°E-160°E) are small, respectively, ±1° and ±0.01 dyne/cm 2, that is when ENSO activity is weak. The areal averaged 12-month lead-time forecasts of SPI in the MDB explain up to 60% of the variance in the observations ( r > 0.7). Based on a threshold SPI of -0.5 for severe drought at the regional scale and for a nominal 12-month lead time, the forecast of the timing of onset is within 0-2 months of the actual threshold being met by the observations, thus effectively a 10-month lead time forecast at a minimum. Spatial analysis suggests that forecast errors can be attributed in part to a mismatch between the spatial heterogeneity of rainfall and raingauge density in the observational network. Forecast uncertainty on the other hand appears associated with the number of redundant predictors used in the forecast model.
Barros, Ana P.; Bowden, Gavin J.
To deal with various sources of error on the initial and boundary conditions, and in model parameters and structure, some form of state updating is necessary in operational forecasting that makes use of real-time streamflow observations. Here we analyze the benefit of variational assimilation as an automatic updating technique in an operational setting. Compared to state space-based techniques (e.g. Kalman
D. Seo; V. Koren; L. Cajina; R. Corby; B. Finn; F. Bell
system 1 Introduction The Great Lakes of North America is the largest fresh water body in the world more than 20% of the worlds fresh water reserves, is shared by the USA and Canada, and supports weather prediction forecast guidance to produce three-dimensional forecasts of water temperature
Ensemble and probabilistic forecasts have many advantages over deterministic ones, both in meteorology and hydrology (e.g. Krzysztofowicz, 2001). Mainly, they inform the user on the uncertainty linked to the forecast. It has been brought to attention that such additional information could lead to improved decision making (e.g. Wilks and Hamill, 1995; Mylne, 2002; Roulin, 2007), but very few studies concentrate
Marie-Amélie Boucher; Denis Tremblay; Perreault Luc; Anctil François
River basin management can greatly benefit from short-term river discharge predictions. In order to improve model produced discharge forecasts, data assimilation allows for the integration of current observations of the hydrological system to produce improved forecasts and reduce prediction uncertainty. Data assimilation is widely used in operational applications to update hydrological models with in situ discharge or level measurements. In areas where timely access to in situ data is not possible, remote sensing data products can be used in assimilation schemes. While river discharge itself cannot be measured from space, radar altimetry can track surface water level variations at crossing locations between the satellite ground track and the river system called virtual stations (VS). Use of radar altimetry versus traditional monitoring in operational settings is complicated by the low temporal resolution of the data (between 10 and 35 days revisit time at a VS depending on the satellite) as well as the fact that the location of the measurements is not necessarily at the point of interest. However, combining radar altimetry from multiple VS with hydrological models can help overcome these limitations. In this study, a rainfall runoff model of the Zambezi River basin is built using remote sensing data sets and used to drive a routing scheme coupled to a simple floodplain model. The extended Kalman filter is used to update the states in the routing model with data from 9 Envisat VS. Model fit was improved through assimilation with the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiencies increasing from 0.19 to 0.62 and from 0.82 to 0.88 at the outlets of two distinct watersheds, the initial NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency) being low at one outlet due to large errors in the precipitation data set. However, model reliability was poor in one watershed with only 58 and 44% of observations falling in the 90% confidence bounds, for the open loop and assimilation runs respectively, pointing to problems with the simple approach used to represent model error.
Michailovsky, C. I.; Bauer-Gottwein, P.
Data from the Tropical Warm Pool International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) were used to evaluate Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations with foci on the performance of three six-class bulk microphysical parameterizations (BMPs). Before the comparison with data from TWP-ICE, a suite of WRF simulations were carried out under an idealized condition, in which the other physical parameterizations were turned
Yi Wang; Charles N. Long; Lai-Yung R. Leung; Jimy Dudhia; Sally A. McFarlane; James H. Mather; Steven J. Ghan; Xiaodong Liu
Istanbul is the largest city in Europe with a population of about 14 million and nearly 3.2 million registered vehicles. Considering that the city is at the junction of major transportation routes on both land and sea, emissions from all motor vehicles operating in the city and those that are in transit is the major source of pollution. The natural gas is used as the major heat source and the impact of other heating sources on the pollution episodes is not clearly known. During 19-29 December 2013 ?stanbul metropolitan area experienced a severe PM10 episode with average episode concentration of 127µgm-3 . The episode was associated with a high pressure system with center pressure of 1030 mb residing over Balkans and north of Black Sea and thereby influencing Istanbul. We carried out simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-CHEM) v3.5 to examine the meteorological conditions and to produce estimates of PM10 over Istanbul for 17-31 December 2013. The three nested domains was setup using 18, 6 and 2 km horizontal grid spacing with (90x90), (115x115) and (130x130) grid points in 1st, 2nd and 3rd domains, respectively. The each domain was run using one way nesting option after preparing the results from the mother domain as an input to subsequent inner domain. 34 vertical levels were used with the lowest layer depth of 15 m above the surface and extending to 15 km at the model top. The model was configured using the model options after many tests to find optimal model parameters and was initialized using global emissions data available publicly. The local emissions database is still in works and is not available to use in the model instead of global data. The estimated PM10 concentrations were compared against the observed conditions. This work shows the first attempt of using WRF-CHEM in Turkey to estimate the pollutant concentrations instead of using other air pollution models such as WRF/CMAQ combination. At the time of constructing this abstract, the model runs were still being conducted and the results will be discussed at the conference. Acknowledgements The authors are grateful to Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality for the air quality data. This study is a background of the online integrated air quality and meteorology modeling project funding by the TUBITAK (Project No: 111Y319) and COST Action ES1004.
Ayd?nöz, Esra; Gürer, Kemal; Toros, Hüseyin
An accurate representation of meteorological processes is important to the accurate predictions of meteorology and air quality. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF\\/Chem) is utilized to examine the sensitivity of air quality predictions to two planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes and three land-surface models (LSMs). Model simulations with different PBL schemes and LSMs are
Chris Misenis; Yang Zhang
THE NOAA HAZARDOUS WEATHER TESTBED: COLLABORATIVE TESTING OF ENSEMBLE AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING WRF NOAA's Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) is a joint facility managed by the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL), the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), and the NWS Oklahoma City/Norman Weather Forecast
Quantitative analysis of the risk for reservoir real-time operation is a hard task owing to the difficulty of accurate description of inflow uncertainties. The ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts directly depict the inflows not only the marginal distributions but also their persistence via scenarios. This motivates us to analyze the reservoir real-time operating risk with ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts as inputs. A method is developed by using the forecast horizon point to divide the future time into two stages, the forecast lead-time and the unpredicted time. The risk within the forecast lead-time is computed based on counting the failure number of forecast scenarios, and the risk in the unpredicted time is estimated using reservoir routing with the design floods and the reservoir water levels of forecast horizon point. As a result, a two-stage risk analysis method is set up to quantify the entire flood risks by defining the ratio of the number of scenarios that excessive the critical value to the total number of scenarios. The China's Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) is selected as a case study, where the parameter and precipitation uncertainties are implemented to produce ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts. The Bayesian inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, is used to account for the parameter uncertainty. Two reservoir operation schemes, the real operated and scenario optimization, are evaluated for the flood risks and hydropower profits analysis. With the 2010 flood, it is found that the improvement of the hydrologic forecast accuracy is unnecessary to decrease the reservoir real-time operation risk, and most risks are from the forecast lead-time. It is therefore valuable to decrease the avarice of ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts with less bias for a reservoir operational purpose.
For many years, simple Gaussian diffusion models have been used by the operational community for real-time air pollution analysis. These models generally produce quick, reasonable results for short distances and simple meteorological situations. However model simulations involving complex topography or weather patterns may produce very unreliable results. In order to aid the user in model selection, a study is currently underway to evaluate several mesoscale and trajectory-diffusion type models for source to sampler distances of up to 150 km in various environments. The models chosen for this study are the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), the Higher Order Turbulence Model for Atmospheric Circulation (HOTMAC) and the Short-Range Layered Atmospheric Model (SLAM). RAMS and HOTMAC are traditional meteorological forecast models while SLAM is a diagnostic trajectory and diffusion model. These models are undergoing an evaluation using ground-based tracer data from meteorological experiments representing desert, forest, complex topography, and lands/sea breeze physiographic environments. The focus of the present work will be in the forest canopy environment using data from the Short Range Experiment (SRE) conducted at the Savannah River Plant from March 1975 through September 1977.
Atchison, M.K.; Dean, D.; Lambert, W.C.; Seely, S. [ENSCO Inc., Melbourne, FL (United States)
The impact of more timely and accurate weather data on airline flight planning with the emphasis on fuel savings is studied. This volume of the report discusses the results of Task 2 of the four major tasks included in the study. Task 2 compares various catagories of flight plans and flight tracking data produced by a simulation system developed for the Federal Aviation Administrations by SRI International. (Flight tracking data simulate actual flight tracks of all aircraft operating at a given time and provide for rerouting of flights as necessary to resolve traffic conflicts.) The comparisons of flight plans on the forecast to flight plans on the verifying analysis confirm Task 1 findings that wind speeds are generally underestimated. Comparisons involving flight tracking data indicate that actual fuel burn is always higher than planned, in either direction, and even when the same weather data set is used. Since the flight tracking model output results in more diversions than is known to be the case, it was concluded that there is an error in the flight tracking algorithm.
Keitz, J. F.
Mesoscale weather conditions can significantly affect the space launch and landing operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). During the summer months, land-sea interactions that occur across KSC and CCAFS lead to the formation of a sea breeze, which can then spawn deep convection. These convective processes often last 60 minutes or less and pose a significant challenge to the forecasters at the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG). The main challenge is that a "GO" forecast for thunderstorms and precipitation at the Shuttle Landing Facility is required at the 90 minute deorbit decision for End Of Mission (EOM) and at the 30 minute Return To Launch Site (RTLS) decision. Convective initiation, timing, and mode also present a forecast challenge for the NWS in Melbourne, FL (MLB). The NWS MLB issues such tactical forecast information as Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAF5), Spot Forecasts for fire weather and hazardous materials incident support, and severe/hazardous weather Watches, Warnings, and Advisories. Lastly, these forecasting challenges can also affect the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), which provides comprehensive weather forecasts for shuttle launch, as well as ground operations, at KSC and CCAFS. The need for accurate mesoscale model forecasts to aid in their decision making is crucial. This study specifically addresses the skill of different model configurations in forecasting warm season convective initiation. Numerous factors influence the development of convection over the Florida peninsula. These factors include sea breezes, river and lake breezes, the prevailing low-level flow, and convergent flow due to convex coastlines that enhance the sea breeze. The interaction of these processes produces the warm season convective patterns seen over the Florida peninsula. However, warm season convection remains one of the most poorly forecast meteorological parameters. To determine which configuration options are best to address this specific forecast concern, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which has two dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) was employed. In addition to the two dynamical cores, there are also two options for a "hot-start" initialization of the WRF model - the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS; McGinley 1995) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS; Brewster 1996). Both LAPS and ADAS are 3- dimensional weather analysis systems that integrate multiple meteorological data sources into one consistent analysis over the user's domain of interest. This allows mesoscale models to benefit from the addition of highresolution data sources. Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many options within each core, provides SMG and MLB with considerable flexibility as well as challenges. It is the goal of this study to assess the different configurations available and to determine which configuration will best predict warm season convective initiation.
Watson, Leela R.; Hoeth, Brian; Blottman, Peter F.
Data assimilation has been demonstrated very useful in improving both global and regional numerical weather prediction. Alaska has very coarser surface observation sites. On the other hand, it gets much more satellite overpass than lower 48 states. How to utilize satellite data to improve numerical prediction is one of hot topics among weather forecast community in Alaska. The Geographic Information Network of Alaska (GINA) at University of Alaska is conducting study on satellite data assimilation for WRF model. AIRS/CRIS sounder profile data are used to assimilate the initial condition for the customized regional WRF model (GINA-WRF model). Normalized standard deviation, RMSE, and correlation statistic analysis methods are applied to analyze one case of 48 hours forecasts and one month of 24-hour forecasts in order to evaluate the improvement of regional numerical model from Data assimilation. The final goal of the research is to provide improved real-time short-time forecast for Alaska regions.
Zhu, Jiang; Stevens, E.; Zavodsky, B. T.; Zhang, X.; Heinrichs, T.; Broderson, D.
Today, commercial microwave radiometers profilers (MWRP) are robust and unattended instruments providing real time accurate atmospheric observations at ~ 1 min temporal resolution under nearly all-weather conditions. Common commercial units operate in the 20-60 GHz frequency range and are able to retrieve profiles of temperature, vapour density, and relative humidity. Temperature and humidity profiles retrieved from MWRP data are used here to feed tools developed for processing radiosonde observations to obtain values of forecast indices (FI) commonly used in operational meteorology. The FI considered here include K index, Total Totals, KO index, Showalter index, T1 Gust, Fog Threat, Lifted Index, S Index (STT), Jefferson Index, MDPI, Thompson Index, TQ Index, and CAPE. Values of FI computed from radiosonde and MWRP-retrieved temperature and humidity profiles are compared in order to quantitatively demonstrate the level of agreement and the value of continuous FI updates. This analysis is repeated for two sites at midlatitude, the first one located at low altitude in Central Europe (Lindenberg, Germany), while the second one located at high altitude in North America (Whistler, Canada). It is demonstrated that FI computed from MWRP well correlate with those computed from radiosondes, with the additional advantage of nearly continuous update. The accuracy of MWRP-derived FI is tested against radiosondes, taken as a reference, showing different performances depending upon index and environmental situation. Overall, FI computed from MWRP retrievals agree well with radiosonde values, with correlation coefficients usually above 0.8 (with few exceptions). We conclude that MWRP retrievals can be used to produce meaningful FI, with the advantage (with respect to radiosondes) of nearly continuous update.
Cimini, D.; Nelson, M.; Güldner, J.; Ware, R.
The updraft formulation used in NCAR CAM3 deep convection parameterization assumes that the fractional entrainment rate for a single updraft is height-independent and the updraft mass flux increases monotonically with height to updraft top. These assumptions are evaluated against three-dimensional high-resolution simulations from the weather research and forecast (WRF) model during the monsoon period of the DOE ARM Tropical Warm Pool -- International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE). Analyses of the WRF-generated updrafts suggest that the fractional entrainment rate for a single updraft decreases with height and the updraft mass flux increases with height below the top of the conditionally unstable layer but decreases above. It is suggested that the assumed updraft mass flux profile in CAM3 might be unrealistic in many cases because the updraft acceleration is affected by other drag processes in addition to entrainment. Total convective cloud mass flux and detrainment rate over the TWP-ICE domain diagnosed from the CAM3 parameterization driven by WRF meteorological fields are smaller than those derived from WRF simulations. The total entrainment rate of CAM3 is smaller than that of WRF in the lower part of cloud and larger in the upper part of cloud. Compared with WRF simulations, the CAM3-parameterized convection is too active and, as a result, excess moisture and heat may be transported to the upper troposphere by the parameterized convection. Future improvement is envisioned.
Wang, Weiguo; Liu, Xiaohong
Space weather’s effects upon the near-Earth environment are due to dynamic changes in the energy transfer processes from the Sun’s photons, particles, and fields. Of the space environment domains that are affected by space weather, the magnetosphere, thermosphere, and even troposphere are key regions that are affected. Space Environment Technologies (SET) has developed and is producing innovative space weather applications. Key operational systems for providing timely information about the effects of space weather on these domains are SET’s Magnetosphere Alert and Prediction System (MAPS), LEO Alert and Prediction System (LAPS), and Automated Radiation Measurements for Aviation Safety (ARMAS) system. MAPS provides a forecast Dst index out to 6 days through the data-driven, redundant data stream Anemomilos algorithm. Anemomilos uses observational proxies for the magnitude, location, and velocity of solar ejecta events. This forecast index is used by satellite operations to characterize upcoming geomagnetic storms, for example. In addition, an ENLIL/Rice Dst prediction out to several days has also been developed and will be described. LAPS is the SET fully redundant operational system providing recent history, current epoch, and forecast solar and geomagnetic indices for use in operational versions of the JB2008 thermospheric density model. The thermospheric densities produced by that system, driven by the LAPS data, are forecast to 72-hours to provide the global mass densities for satellite operators. ARMAS is a project that has successfully demonstrated the operation of a micro dosimeter on aircraft to capture the real-time radiation environment due to Galactic Cosmic Rays and Solar Energetic Particles. The dose and dose-rates are captured on aircraft, downlinked in real-time via the Iridium satellites, processed on the ground, incorporated into the most recent NAIRAS global radiation climatology data runs, and made available to end users via the web and smart phone apps. ARMAS provides the “weather” of the radiation environment to improve air-crew and passenger safety. Many of the data products from MAPS, LAPS, and ARMAS are available on the SpaceWx smartphone app for iPhone, iPad, iPod, and Android professional users and public space weather education. We describe recent forecasting advances for moving the space weather information from these automated systems into operational, derivative products for communications, aviation, and satellite operations uses.
Tobiska, W. Kent
Space weather's effects upon the near-Earth environment are due to dynamic changes in the energy transfer processes from the Sun's photons, particles, and fields. Of the space environment domains that are affected by space weather, the magnetosphere, thermosphere, and even troposphere are key regions that are affected. Space Environment Technologies (SET) has developed and is producing innovative space weather applications. Key operational systems for providing timely information about the effects of space weather on these domains are SET's Magnetosphere Alert and Prediction System (MAPS), LEO Alert and Prediction System (LAPS), and Automated Radiation Measurements for Aviation Safety (ARMAS) system. MAPS provides a forecast Dst index out to 6 days through the data-driven, redundant data stream Anemomilos algorithm. Anemomilos uses observational proxies for the magnitude, location, and velocity of solar ejecta events. This forecast index is used by satellite operations to characterize upcoming geomagnetic storms, for example. LAPS is the SET fully redundant operational system providing recent history, current epoch, and forecast solar and geomagnetic indices for use in operational versions of the JB2008 thermospheric density model. The thermospheric densities produced by that system, driven by the LAPS data, are forecast to 72-hours to provide the global mass densities for satellite operators. ARMAS is a project that has successfully demonstrated the operation of a micro dosimeter on aircraft to capture the real-time radiation environment due to Galactic Cosmic Rays and Solar Energetic Particles. The dose and dose-rates are captured on aircraft, downlinked in real-time via the Iridium satellites, processed on the ground, incorporated into the most recent NAIRAS global radiation climatology data runs, and made available to end users via the web and smart phone apps. ARMAS provides the 'weather' of the radiation environment to improve air-crew and passenger safety. Many of the data products from MAPS, LAPS, and ARMAS are available on the SpaceWx smartphone app for iPhone, iPad, iPod, and Android professional users and public space weather education. We describe recent forecasting advances for moving the space weather information from these automated systems into operational, derivative products for communications, aviation, and satellite operations uses.
Tobiska, W.; Knipp, D. J.; Burke, W. J.; Bouwer, D.; Bailey, J. J.; Hagan, M. P.; Didkovsky, L. V.; Garrett, H. B.; Bowman, B. R.; Gannon, J. L.; Atwell, W.; Blake, J. B.; Crain, W.; Rice, D.; Schunk, R. W.; Fulgham, J.; Bell, D.; Gersey, B.; Wilkins, R.; Fuschino, R.; Flynn, C.; Cecil, K.; Mertens, C. J.; Xu, X.; Crowley, G.; Reynolds, A.; Azeem, S. I.; Wiley, S.; Holland, M.; Malone, K.
The impact of more timely and accurate weather data on airline flight planning with the emphasis on fuel savings is studied. This volume of the report discusses the results of Task 3 of the four major tasks included in the study. Task 3 compares flight plans developed on the Suitland forecast with actual data observed by the aircraft (and averaged over 10 degree segments). The results show that the average difference between the forecast and observed wind speed is 9 kts. without considering direction, and the average difference in the component of the forecast wind parallel to the direction of the observed wind is 13 kts. - both indicating that the Suitland forecast underestimates the wind speeds. The Root Mean Square (RMS) vector error is 30.1 kts. The average absolute difference in direction between the forecast and observed wind is 26 degrees and the temperature difference is 3 degree Centigrade. These results indicate that the forecast model as well as the verifying analysis used to develop comparison flight plans in Tasks 1 and 2 is a limiting factor and that the average potential fuel savings or penalty are up to 3.6 percent depending on the direction of flight.
Keitz, J. F.
MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate) is the current pre-operational atmospheric service of the European GMES programme. MACC provides data records on atmospheric composition for recent years, data for monitoring present conditions and forecasts of the distribution of key constituents for a few days ahead. MACC combines state-of-the-art atmospheric modelling with Earth observation data to provide information services covering European
V. Peuch; L. Rouïl; H. Elbern
A major earthquake sequence is ongoing in the South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ), where experts expect earthquakes of up to MW = 7.1 in the coming years to decades. The historical seismicity in this region is well known and many major faults here and on Reykjanes Peninsula (RP) have already been mapped. The faults are predominantly N-S with right-lateral strike-slip motion, while the overall motion in the SISZ is E-W oriented left-lateral motion. The area that we propose for operational earthquake forecasting(OEF) contains both the SISZ and the RP. The earthquake catalogue considered for OEF, called the SIL catalogue, spans the period from 1991 until September 2013 and contains more than 200,000 earthquakes. Some of these events have a large azimuthal gap between stations, and some have large horizontal and vertical uncertainties. We are interested in building seismicity models using high-quality data, so we filter the catalogue using the criteria proposed by Gomberg et al. (1990) and Bondar et al. (2004). The resulting filtered catalogue contains around 130,000 earthquakes. Magnitude estimates in the Iceland catalogue also require special attention. The SIL system uses two methods to estimate magnitude. The first method is based on an empirical local magnitude (ML) relationship. The other magnitude scale is a so-called "local moment magnitude" (MLW), originally constructed by Slunga et al. (1984) to agree with local magnitude scales in Sweden. In the SIL catalogue, there are two main problems with the magnitude estimates and consequently it is not immediately possible to convert MLW to moment magnitude (MW). These problems are: (i) immediate aftershocks of large events are assigned magnitudes that are too high; and (ii) the seismic moment of large earthquakes is underestimated. For this reason the magnitude values in the catalogue must be corrected before developing an OEF system. To obtain a reliable MW estimate, we calibrate a magnitude relationship based on attenuation relations derived for earthquakes in Iceland (Pétursson and Vogfjörd, 2010) and use this relationship to address the problem of underestimating seismic moment for larger earthquakes (>3.0). Finally, to solve the problem related with the overestimation of aftershock magnitude of large earthquakes about 150 earthquakes were checked. All such passages demonstrate the importance of carefully checking the catalogue before proceeding with the operational earthquake forecasting. References Bondar, I., S.C. Myers, E.R. Engdahl, and E.A. Bergman (2004). Epicentre accuracy based on seismicnetwork criteria, Geophys. J. Int., 156, 483-496. Gomberg, J.S., K.M. Shedlock, and S.W. Roecker (1990). The effect of S-Wave arrival times on the accuracy of hypocenter estimation, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 80, 1605-1628. Pétursson and Vogfjörd (2010). Attenuation relations for near- and far field peak ground motion (PGV, PGA)and new magnitude estimatesfor large earthquakes in SW-Iceland. Report n° VI 2009-012, pp. 43, ISSN 1670-8261. Slunga, R., P. Norrman and A. Glans (1984). Seismicity of Southern Sweden - Stockholm: Försvarets Forskningsanstalt, July 1984. FOA Report, C2 C20543-T1, 106 p.
Panzera, Francesco; Vogfjörd, Kristin; Zechar, J. Douglas; Eberhard, David
The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) dataset, which is updated daily using swaths of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data aboard the NASA-EOS Aqua and Terra satellites. NASA SPoRT started generating daily real-time GVF composites at 1-km resolution over the Continental United States beginning 1 June 2010. A companion poster presentation (Bell et al.) primarily focuses on impact results in an offline configuration of the Noah land surface model (LSM) for the 2010 warm season, comparing the SPoRT/MODIS GVF dataset to the current operational monthly climatology GVF available within the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models. This paper/presentation primarily focuses on individual case studies of severe weather events to determine the impacts and possible improvements by using the real-time, high-resolution SPoRT-MODIS GVFs in place of the coarser-resolution NCEP climatological GVFs in model simulations. The NASA-Unified WRF (NU-WRF) modeling system is employed to conduct the sensitivity simulations of individual events. The NU-WRF is an integrated modeling system based on the Advanced Research WRF dynamical core that is designed to represents aerosol, cloud, precipitation, and land processes at satellite-resolved scales in a coupled simulation environment. For this experiment, the coupling between the NASA Land Information System (LIS) and the WRF model is utilized to measure the impacts of the daily SPoRT/MODIS versus the monthly NCEP climatology GVFs. First, a spin-up run of the LIS is integrated for two years using the Noah LSM to ensure that the land surface fields reach an equilibrium state on the 4-km grid mesh used. Next, the spin-up LIS is run in two separate modes beginning on 1 June 2010, one continuing with the climatology GVFs while the other uses the daily SPoRT/MODIS GVFs. Finally, snapshots of the LIS land surface fields are used to initialize two different simulations of the NU-WRF, one running with climatology LIS and GVFs, and the other running with experimental LIS and NASA/SPoRT GVFs. In this paper/presentation, case study results will be highlighted in regions with significant differences in GVF between the NCEP climatology and SPoRT product during severe weather episodes.
Case, Jonathan L.; Bell, Jordan R.; LaFontaine, Frank J.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.
An all-electric home using an electric storage heater with safety and cleaning is expanded. However, the general electric storage heater leads to an unpleasant room temperature and energy loss by the overs and shorts of the amount of heat radiation when the climate condition changes greatly. Consequently, the operation of the electric storage heater introduced into an all-electric home, a storage type electric water heater, and photovoltaics was planned using weather forecast information distributed by a communication line. The comfortable evaluation (the difference between a room-temperature target and a room-temperature result) when the proposed system was employed based on the operation planning, purchase electric energy, and capacity of photovoltaics was investigated. As a result, comfortable heating operation was realized by using weather forecast data; furthermore, it is expected that the purchase cost of the commercial power in daytime can be reduced by introducing photovoltaics. Moreover, when the capacity of the photovoltaics was increased, the surplus power was stored in the electric storage heater, but an extremely unpleasant room temperature was not shown in the investigation ranges of this paper. By obtaining weather information from the forecast of the day from an external service using a communication line, the heating system of the all-electric home with low energy loss and comfort temperature is realizable.
Land-Atmosphere coupling is typically designed and implemented independently for physical (e.g. water and energy) and chemical (e.g. biogenic emissions and surface depositions)-based models and applications. Differences in scale, data requirements, and physics thus limit the ability of Earth System models to be fully coupled in a consistent manner. In order for the physical-chemical-biological coupling to be complete, treatment of the land in terms of surface classification, condition, fluxes, and emissions must be considered simultaneously and coherently across all components. In this study, we investigate a coupling strategy for the NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model that incorporates the traditionally disparate fluxes of water and energy through NASA's LIS (Land Information System) and biogenic emissions through BEIS (Biogenic Emissions Inventory System) and MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature) into the atmosphere. In doing so, inconsistencies across model inputs and parameter data are resolved such that the emissions from a particular plant species are consistent with the heat and moisture fluxes calculated for that land cover type. In turn, the response of the atmospheric turbulence and mixing in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) acts on the identical surface type, fluxes, and emissions for each. In addition, the coupling of dust emission within the NU-WRF system is performed in order to ensure consistency and to maximize the benefit of high-resolution land representation in LIS. The impacts of those self-consistent components on' the simulation of atmospheric aerosols are then evaluated through the WRF-Chem-GOCART (Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport) model. Overall, this ambitious project highlights the current difficulties and future potential of fully coupled. components. in Earth System models, and underscores the importance of the iLEAPS community in supporting improved knowledge of processes and innovative approaches for models and observations.
Tan, Qian; Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.; Zhou, Shujia; Tao, Zhining; Peters-Lidard, Christa d.; Chn, Mian
Weather forecasting is critical to both the Space Transportation System (STS) ground operations and the launch/landing activities at NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The current launch frequency places significant demands on the USAF weather forecasters at the Cape Canaveral Forecasting Facility (CCFF), who currently provide the weather forecasting for all STS operations. As launch frequency increases, KSC's weather forecasting problems will be great magnified. The single most important problem is the shortage of highly skilled forecasting personnel. The development of forecasting expertise is difficult and requires several years of experience. Frequent personnel changes within the forecasting staff jeopardize the accumulation and retention of experience-based weather forecasting expertise. The primary purpose of this project was to assess the feasibility of using Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques to ameliorate this shortage of experts by capturing aria incorporating the forecasting knowledge of current expert forecasters into a Weather Forecasting Expert System (WFES) which would then be made available to less experienced duty forecasters.
The paper evaluates the meteorological quality and operational utility of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) in forecasting tropical cyclones. It is shown that the model can provide useful predictions of motion and formation on a real-time basis in the western North Pacific. The meterological characteristics of the NOGAPS tropical cyclone predictions are evaluated by examining the formation of low-level cyclone systems in the tropics and vortex structure in the NOGAPS analysis and verifying 72-h forecasts. The adjusted NOGAPS track forecasts showed equitable skill to the baseline aid and the dynamical model. NOGAPS successfully predicted unusual equatorward turns for several straight-running cyclones.
Fiorino, Michael; Goerss, James S.; Jensen, Jack J.; Harrison, Edward J., Jr.
The paper evaluates the meteorological quality and operational utility of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) in forecasting tropical cyclones. It is shown that the model can provide useful predictions of motion and formation on a real-time basis in the western North Pacific. The meterological characteristics of the NOGAPS tropical cyclone predictions are evaluated by examining the formation of low-level cyclone systems in the tropics and vortex structure in the NOGAPS analysis and verifying 72-h forecasts. The adjusted NOGAPS track forecasts showed equitable skill to the baseline aid and the dynamical model. NOGAPS successfully predicted unusual equatorward turns for several straight-running cyclones. 35 refs.
Fiorino, M.; Goerss, J.S.; Jensen, J.J.; Harrison, E.J. Jr. (NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD (United States) Naval Research Lab., Monterey, CA (United States) Fleet Numerical Oceanography Center, Monterey, CA (United States) ARC Professional Services Group, Inc., Landover, MD (United States))
The assessment of the climate variability over Africa has recently attracted the interest of the regional climate downscaling research community. The main reasons are not only because Africa is a climate change hot-spot, but also due to the low capacity of this region for the adaptation and mitigation under negative impacts and its direct dependency on its socio-economic sustainability of the climate variability. Therefore, improvements in the understanding of the African climate could help the governments in decision-making. Under this umbrella, regional climate models (RCMs) are promising tools to assess the African regional climate. The main advantage of the RCMs, with respect to global reanalysis datasets, is the higher detail provided by the increased resolution which implies a better representation of land-surface interactions and atmospheric processes. However, the confidence on the RCMs strongly depends on the reduction/bounding of uncertainties. One of these sources of uncertainties is associated with the selection of the boundary conditions for driving the regional models. In this work, two identical CORDEX-compliant simulations have been performed over Africa with the unique difference of being driven by two different reanalyses. The reanalyses used were the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Interim reanalysis (ERA-I) and the Japanese 25-year reanalysis (JRA-25) by the Japanese Meteorological Service. Both reanalyses have identical temporal resolution (6-hr) but different spatial grid resolution, 0.75 and 1.25 degrees, respectively. The regional model used was the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). The numerical experiments encompass the period 1989-2010 covering the Africa-CORDEX domain with a 50 km horizontal spatial resolution and 28 vertical levels up to 50 hPa. The WRF simulations are compared between them and against observations. For the mean and maximum temperature the CRU monthly time series (0.25deg) from Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia are used. The precipitation is compared against the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Project (TRMM) monthly data (0.25deg). The results depict that none of the reanalyses used outperforms the other in representing the African climate, since their performance depends on the variable, season and region assessed. The simulations show a noticeable disagreement for 2-m temperature in north-western Africa, where WRF-JRA tends to underestimate this variable mostly in winter and spring. For the monthly mean daily maximum temperature, WRF-JRA tends to overestimate the temperature in the Sahel in summer and in the border between Angola and Namibia in Winter. When comparing with CRU observations, there is a remarkably better spatial representation for the WRF-EI simulation in the North of Africa. However, the behaviour of WRF-EI and WRF-JRA is similar in the South of Africa. Intra-annual variability is well represented except in Atlas mountains where WRF-JRA underestimates temperature. Regarding precipitation, the main differences appear over the Sahel region in JAS and in the Congo area during JFM. The comparison with the TRMM data shows a better agreement with the WRF-JRA simulation except during summer in the Sahel region. The monthly annual cycle is well captured, except in Ethiopian highlands and Northern West Africa where WRF-JRA (WRF-EI) underestimate (overestimate) the annual cycle.
Lorente-Plazas, Raquel; García-Díez, Markel; Jimenez-Guerrero, Pedro; Fernández, Jesús; Montavez, Juan Pedro
Local modeling with a customized configuration is conducted at National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) to produce high-resolution numerical forecasts that can better simulate local weather phenomena and complement larger scale global and regional models. The advent of the Environmental Modeling System (EMS), which provides a pre-compiled version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and wrapper Perl scripts, has enabled forecasters to easily configure and execute the WRF model on local workstations. NWS WFOs often use EMS output to help in forecasting highly localized, mesoscale features such as convective initiation, the timing and inland extent of lake effect snow bands, lake and sea breezes, and topographically-modified winds. However, quantitatively evaluating model performance to determine errors and biases still proves to be one of the challenges in running a local model. Developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) verification software makes performing these types of quantitative analyses easier, but operational forecasters do not generally have time to familiarize themselves with navigating the sometimes complex configurations associated with the MET tools. To assist forecasters in running a subset of MET programs and capabilities, the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed and transitioned a set of dynamic, easily configurable Perl scripts to collaborating NWS WFOs. The objective of these scripts is to provide SPoRT collaborating partners in the NWS with the ability to evaluate the skill of their local EMS model runs in near real time with little prior knowledge of the MET package. The ultimate goal is to make these verification scripts available to the broader NWS community in a future version of the EMS software. This paper provides an overview of the SPoRT MET scripts, instructions for how the scripts are run, and example use cases.
Zavodsky, Bradley; Case, Jonathan L.; Gotway, John H.; White, Kristopher; Medlin, Jeffrey; Wood, Lance; Radell, Dave
Meteorological inputs play a vital role on regional air quality modelling. An extensive sensitivity analysis of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was performed, in the framework of the Integrated Assessment Modelling System for the Iberian Peninsula (SIMCA) project. Up to 23 alternative model configurations, including Planetary Boundary Layer schemes, Microphysics, Land-surface models, Radiation schemes, Sea Surface Temperature and Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation were tested in a 3 km spatial resolution domain. Model results for the most significant meteorological variables, were assessed through a series of common statistics. The physics options identified to produce better results (Yonsei University Planetary Boundary Layer, WRF Single-Moment 6-class microphysics, Noah Land-surface model, Eta Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory longwave radiation and MM5 shortwave radiation schemes) along with other relevant user settings (time-varying Sea Surface Temperature and combined grid-observational nudging) where included in a "best case" configuration. This setup was tested and found to produce more accurate estimation of temperature, wind and humidity fields at surface level than any other configuration for the two episodes simulated. Planetary Boundary Layer height predictions showed a reasonable agreement with estimations derived from routine atmospheric soundings. Although some seasonal and geographical differences were observed, the model showed an acceptable behaviour overall. Despite being useful to define the most appropriate setup of the WRF model for air quality modelling over the Iberian Peninsula, this study provides a general overview of WRF sensitivity and can constitute a reference for future mesoscale meteorological modelling exercises.
Borge, Rafael; Alexandrov, Vassil; José del Vas, Juan; Lumbreras, Julio; Rodríguez, Encarnacion
The climate of the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) has been simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. WRF was implemented using a 10km horizontal grid and integrated for 24 years from 1985 through 2008. The model simulated climate was evaluated against gridded precipitation and temperature observations from the Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP) and found to perform adequately at time scales ranging from daily to multi-year. WRF is able to reproduce daily and seasonal statistics well. It is able to capture the recent drought well for the basin except for an overestimation of the negative anomaly in the northernmost part of the domain. Examining ENSO cycles showed WRF has good skill at capturing the correct spatial distribution of precipitation anomalies associated with El Nino/La Nina events during this 24 year period. This high resolution simulation allows investigation of land - atmosphere coupling within the basin including identification of the dominant water vapour source regions for events and seasons, and quantification of the precipitation recycling.
Power plant equipment must be monitored closely to prevent failures from disrupting plant availability. Online monitoring technology integrated with hybrid forecasting techniques can be used to prevent plant equipment faults. A self learning rule-based expert system is proposed in this paper for fault forecasting in power plants controlled by supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system. Self-learning utilizes associative data mining algorithms on the SCADA history database to form new rules that can dynamically update the knowledge base of the rule-based expert system. In this study, a number of popular associative learning algorithms are considered for rule formation. Data mining results show that the Tertius algorithm is best suited for developing a learning engine for power plants. For real-time monitoring of the plant condition, graphical models are constructed by K-means clustering. To build a time-series forecasting model, a multi layer preceptron (MLP) is used. Once created, the models are updated in the model library to provide an adaptive environment for the proposed system. Graphical user interface (GUI) illustrates the variation of all sensor values affecting a particular alarm/fault, as well as the step-by-step procedure for avoiding critical situations and consequent plant shutdown. The forecasting performance is evaluated by computing the mean absolute error and root mean square error of the predictions.
Mayadevi, N.; Ushakumari, S. S.; Vinodchandra, S. S.
An approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for as pecified time horizon and a given confidence level. An assess- ment of the capacity and ramping requirement si s performed using
Yuri V. Makarov; Pavel V. Etingov; Jian Ma; Zhenyu Huang; Krishnappa Subbarao
This paper owes its origins to a project, still in progress at ENEL/ARC, which aims to investigate the application of artificial intelligence techniques and eventually to check their positive contribution in the field of short-term load forecasting. In pa...
M. Sforna, F. Proverbio
Comprehensive sensitivity analyses on physical parameterization schemes of Weather Research Forecast (WRF-ARW core) model have been carried out for the prediction of track and intensity of tropical cyclones by taking the example of cyclone Nargis, which formed over the Bay of Bengal and hit Myanmar on 02 May 2008, causing widespread damages in terms of human and economic losses. The model performances are also evaluated with different initial conditions of 12 h intervals starting from the cyclogenesis to the near landfall time. The initial and boundary conditions for all the model simulations are drawn from the global operational analysis and forecast products of National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP-GFS) available for the public at 1° lon/lat resolution. The results of the sensitivity analyses indicate that a combination of non-local parabolic type exchange coefficient PBL scheme of Yonsei University (YSU), deep and shallow convection scheme with mass flux approach for cumulus parameterization (Kain-Fritsch), and NCEP operational cloud microphysics scheme with diagnostic mixed phase processes (Ferrier), predicts better track and intensity as compared against the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) estimates. Further, the final choice of the physical parameterization schemes selected from the above sensitivity experiments is used for model integration with different initial conditions. The results reveal that the cyclone track, intensity and time of landfall are well simulated by the model with an average intensity error of about 8 hPa, maximum wind error of 12 m s-1and track error of 77 km. The simulations also show that the landfall time error and intensity error are decreasing with delayed initial condition, suggesting that the model forecast is more dependable when the cyclone approaches the coast. The distribution and intensity of rainfall are also well simulated by the model and comparable with the TRMM estimates.
Raju, P. V. S.; Potty, Jayaraman; Mohanty, U. C.
Wind profiling radars are now in general use by a number of weather agencies worldwide. These use the Doppler Beam Swinging approach exclusively. The Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology has adopted a Boundary Layer wind profiling radar using the Spaced Antenna technique. This paper describes the performance of these radars and discusses some of the issues that needed to be addressed for appropriate performance in an operational environment, namely the known wind magnitude underestimation. The underestimation was successfully addressed with an empirical correction. Quality control and hardware improvements to minimize internal clutter have been implemented, resulting in largely outlier free wind estimates on presentation to forecasters, and excellent height coverage.
Dolman, Bronwyn K.; Reid, Iain M.
weather research and forecasting ===== The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) program has numerous modeling and data assimilation (DA) activities in which the WRF model is a key component. SPoRT generates realtime, research satellite products from the MODIS and VIIRS instruments, making the data available to NOAA/NWS partners running the WRF/EMS, including: (1) 2-km northwestern-hemispheric SST composite, (2) daily, MODIS green vegetation fraction (GVF) over CONUS, and (3) NASA Land Information System (LIS) runs of the Noah LSM over the southeastern CONUS. Each of these datasets have been utilized by specific SPoRT partners in local EMS model runs, with select offices evaluating the impacts using a set of automated scripts developed by SPoRT that manage data acquisition and run the NCAR Model Evaluation Tools verification package. SPoRT is engaged in DA research with the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) and Ensemble Kalman Filter in LIS for soil moisture DA. Ongoing DA projects using GSI include comparing the impacts of assimilating Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) radiances versus retrieved profiles, and an analysis of extra-tropical cyclones with intense non-convective winds. As part of its Early Adopter activities for the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, SPoRT is conducting bias correction and soil moisture DA within LIS to improve simulations using the NASA Unified-WRF (NU-WRF) for both the European Space Agency's Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity and upcoming SMAP mission data. SPoRT has also incorporated real-time global GVF data into LIS and WRF from the VIIRS product being developed by NOAA/NESDIS. This poster will highlight the research and transition activities SPoRT conducts using WRF, NU-WRF, EMS, LIS, and GSI.
Case, Jonathan L.; Blankenship, Clay B.; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Srikishen, Jayanthi; Berndt, Emily B.
Precipitation information is crucial for regional hydrological and agricultural climate change impact studies. Regional climate models (RCMs) are suitable tools to provide high spatial resolution precipitation products at regional scales, however, they are usually biased not only in absolute values, but also in reproducing observed spatial patterns. Therefore, bias correction techniques are required to obtain suited meteorological information on regional scale. We present a Copula-based method to correct precipitation fields from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model by merging modelled fields with gridded observation data. Germany is selected as our research domain. High resolution (7km) WRF simulations are used in this study, which is driven by ERA40 reanalysis data for 1971-2000. REGNIE data from Germany Weather Service (DWD) were used as gridded observation data source (1km/daily) and rescaled to 7km for this application. The critical step of this proposed bias correction approach is the establishment of bivariate Copula models, each of them consists of two marginal distributions and one Copula function. The marginal distributions are used to describe the statistical properties of REGNIE and WRF-ERA40 data, while the theoretical Copula function represents the dependence structure between REGNIE and WRF-ERA40 data. Based on this Copula model, the conditional distribution of REGNIE conditioned on WRF-ERA40 can be derived. To generate bias corrected WRF-ERA40 precipitation, a random sample of possible outcomes is drawn from this conditional distribution. This also allows for a quantitative estimation of the inherent uncertainties. The expectation/median/mode value of the stochastic samples can be used as an estimation of the corrected value. For the application, a split-sampling approach is used. Results show that the marginal distributions of REGNIE and WRF-ERA40 are different which implies deficiencies of the WRF-ERA40 simulations to reproduce the statistics of precipitation properly. Copula functions vary in space and time, which indicates varying dependence structures for different seasons and locations. The corrected WRF-ERA40 data are compared with REGNIE in the validation period. It shows that the Copula-based approach successfully corrects for the errors in WRF-ERA40 precipitation. The range of the daily mean precipitation bias over Germany is reduced from -39%-84% to -29%-15%. Especially in winter time, the bias is reduced from -40%-111% to -33%-26%. The results are compared with two standard bias correction methods (linear scaling, quantile mapping) and discussed.
Mao, Ganquan; Vogl, Stefanie; Laux, Patrick; Wagner, Sven; Kunstmann, Harald
Rapid urbanization has emerged as the source of many adverse effects that challenge the environmental sustainability of cities under changing climatic patterns. One essential key to address these challenges is to physically resolve the dynamics of urban-land-atmospheric interactions. To investigate the impact of urbanization on regional climate, physically-based single layer urban canopy model (SLUCM) has been developed and implemented into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) platform. However, due to the lack of realistic representation of urban hydrological processes, simulation of urban climatology by current coupled WRF-SLUCM is inevitably inadequate. Aiming at improving the accuracy of simulations, recently we implemented urban hydrological processes into the model, including (1) anthropogenic latent heat, (2) urban irrigation, (3) evaporation over impervious surface, and (4) urban oasis effect. In addition, we couple the green roof system into the model to verify its capacity in alleviating urban heat island effect at regional scale. Driven by different meteorological forcings, offline tests show that the enhanced model is more accurate in predicting turbulent fluxes arising from built terrains. Though the coupled WRF-SLUCM has been extensively tested against various field measurement datasets, accurate input parameter space needs to be specified for good model performance. As realistic measurements of all input parameters to the modeling framework are rarely possible, understanding the model sensitivity to individual parameters is essential to determine the relative importance of parameter uncertainty to model performance. Thus we further use an advanced Monte Carlo approach to quantify relative sensitivity of input parameters of the hydrological model. In particular, performance of two widely used soil hydraulic models, namely the van Genuchten model (based on generic soil physics) and an empirical model (viz. the CHC model currently adopted in WRF-SLUCM) is investigated. Results show that the CHC model requires a much finer time step for numerical stability in hydrological modeling and thus is more computationally expensive in the coupled WRF-SLUCM modeling environment.
Wang, Z.; yang, J.
current Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Noah modeling framework considers only the dominant land cover type within each grid cell, which here is referred to as the "dominant" approach. In order to assess the impact of subgrid-scale variability in land cover composition, a mosaic/tiling approach (hereafter the "mosaic" approach) is implemented into the coupled WRF-Noah modeling system. In the mosaic approach, a certain number (N) of tiles, each representing a land cover category, is considered within each grid cell. WRF simulations of a clear sky day and a rainfall period over a heterogeneous urban/suburban setting show that the two approaches generate differences in the surface energy balance, land surface temperature, near-surface states, boundary layer growth, as well as rainfall distribution. Evaluation against a variety of observational data (including surface flux measurements, the MODIS land surface temperature product, and radar rainfall estimates) indicates that, compared to the dominant approach, the mosaic approach has a better performance. In addition, WRF-simulated results with the mosaic approach are less sensitive to the spatial resolution of the grid: Larger differences are observed in simulations of different resolutions with the dominant approach. The effect of increasing the number of tiles (N) on the WRF-simulated results is also examined. When N increases from 1 (i.e., the dominant approach) to 15, changes in the ground heat flux, sensible heat flux, surface temperature, and 2 m air temperature are more significant during nighttime. Changes in the 2 m specific humidity are more significant during daytime, and changes in the boundary layer height are most prominent during the morning and afternoon transitional periods.
Li, Dan; Bou-Zeid, Elie; Barlage, Michael; Chen, Fei; Smith, James A.
The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used in a regional climate model configuration to simulate past precipitation climate of China during the rainy season (May-September) of 1981-2000, and to investigate potential future (2041-2060 and 2081-2100) changes in precipitation over China relative to the reference period 1981-2000. WRF is run with initial conditions from a coupled general circulation model, i.e., the high-resolution version of MIROC (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate). WRF reproduces the observed distribution of rainy season precipitation in 1981-2000 and its interannual variations better than MIROC. MIROC projects increases in rainy season precipitation over most parts of China and decreases of more than 25 mm over parts of Taiwan and central Tibet by the mid-21st century. WRF projects decreases in rainfall over southern Tibetan Plateau, Southwest China, and northwestern part of Northeast China, and increases in rainfall by more than 100 mm along the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau and over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River during 2041-2060. MIROC projects further increases in rainfall over most of China by the end of the 21st century, although simulated rainfall decreases by more than 25 mm over parts of Taiwan, Guangxi, Guizhou, and central Tibet. WRF projects increased rainfall of more than 100 mm along the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau and over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and decreased rainfall over Southwest China, and southern Tibetan Plateau by the end of the 21st century.
Wang, Shuzhou; Yu, Entao
Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and spacecraft may be impeded or in which parameters reach values that are outside the nominal observational range. This paper analyzes existing and upcoming observational capabilities for forecasting, and discusses how the findings may impact space weather research and its transition to operations. A single limitation to the assessment is lack of information provided to us on radiation monitor performance, which caused us not to fully assess (i.e., not assess short term) radiation storm forecasting. The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs. Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements. However, with current or even with near term new assets in place, in the worst-case scenario there could be a near-complete lack of key near-real-time solar wind plasma data of severe disturbances heading toward and impacting Earth's magnetosphere. Models that attempt to simulate the effects of these disturbances in near real time or with archival data require solar wind plasma observations as input. Moreover, the study finds that near-future observational assets will be less capable of advancing the understanding of extreme geomagnetic disturbances at Earth, which might make the resulting space weather models unsuitable for transition to operations.
Posner, Arik; Hesse, Michael; SaintCyr, Chris
The main goal of presented work is to evaluate the accuracy of modelling the atmospheric transport and transformation on regional scale, performed with 25 km grid spacing. The coupled Mesoscale Weather Model - Chemical Transport Model (CTM) has been applied for Europe under European-American AQMEII project (Air Quality Modelling Evaluation International Initiative - http://aqmeii.jrc.ec.europa.eu/). The modelling domain was centered over Denmark (57.00°N, 10.00°E) with 172 x 172 grid points in x and y direction. The map projection choice was Lambert conformal. In the applied modelling system the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions (CAMx) from ENVIRON International Corporation (Novato, California) was coupled off-line to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), developed by National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). WRF-CAMx simulations have been carried out for 2006. The anthropogenic emisions database has been provided by TNO (Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research) under AQMEII initiative. Area and line emissions were proceeded by emission model EMIL (Juda-Rezler et al., 2012) , while for the point sources the EPS3 model (Emission Processor v.3 from ENVIRON) was implemented in order to obtain vertical distribution of emission. Boundary conditions were acquired from coupling the GEMS (Global and regional Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite and in-situ data) modelling system results with satellite observations. The modelling system has been evaluated for the area of Central-Eastern Europe, regarding ozone and particulate matter (PM) concentrations. For each pollutant measured data from rural background AirBase and EMEP stations, with more than 75% of daily data, has been used. Original 'operational' evaluation methodology, proposed by Juda-Rezler et al. (2012) was applied. Selected set of metrics consists of 5 groups: bias measures, error measures, correlation measures, measures of model variance and spread, which together with various graphical analysis enable comprehensive assessment of the model skill. The results show, that in general, WRF-CAMx modelling system underpredicts measured concentrations, however, the fractional bias (FB) and fractional error (FE) skill criteria, as well as the benchmark of index agreement (IA), for both ozone and PM in various averaging time ranges have been fulfilled at a satisfactory level.  Juda-Rezler K., Reizer M., Huszar P., Krüger B.C., Zanis P., Syrakov D., Katragkou E., Trapp W., Melas D., Chervenkov H., Tegoulias I., Halenka T., (2012). Modelling the effects of climate change on air quality over Central and Eastern Europe: concept, evaluation and projections. Climate Research, 53(3), 179-203.
Maciejewska, Katarzyna; Juda-Rezler, Katarzyna; Reizer, Magdalena
The difficulty of forecasting earthquakes can fundamentally be attributed to the self-similar, or '1/f', nature of seismic sequences. Specifically, the rate of occurrence of earthquakes is inversely proportional to their magnitude m, or more accurately to their scalar moment M. With respect to this '1/f problem,' it can be argued that catalog selection (or equivalently, determining catalog constraints) constitutes the most significant challenge to seismicity based earthquake forecasting. Here, we address and introduce a potential solution to this most daunting problem. Specifically, we introduce a framework to constrain, or partition, an earthquake catalog (a study region) in order to resolve local seismicity. In particular, we combine Gutenberg-Richter (GR), rupture length, and Omori scaling with various empirical measurements to relate the size (spatial and temporal extents) of a study area (or bins within a study area), in combination with a metric to quantify rate trends in local seismicity, to the local earthquake magnitude potential - the magnitudes of earthquakes the region is expected to experience. From this, we introduce a new type of time dependent hazard map for which the tuning parameter space is nearly fully constrained. In a similar fashion, by combining various scaling relations and also by incorporating finite extents (rupture length, area, and duration) as constraints, we develop a method to estimate the Omori (temporal) and spatial aftershock decay parameters as a function of the parent earthquake's magnitude m. From this formulation, we develop an ETAS type model that overcomes many point-source limitations of contemporary ETAS. These models demonstrate promise with respect to earthquake forecasting applications. Moreover, the methods employed suggest a general framework whereby earthquake and other complex-system, 1/f type, problems can be constrained from scaling relations and finite extents.
Yoder, M. R.; Rundle, J. B.; Glasscoe, M. T.
The launch of the Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) satellite provides new and exciting opportunities for the application of remotely sensed data products in operational weather forecasting environments. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center in Huntsville, Alabama is a NASA and NOAA-funded project to assist with the transition of experimental and research products to the operational weather community through partnership with NOAA/National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices (NWS WFOs) throughout the United States. This presentation will provide the S-NPP community with an update on current and future SPoRT projects related to the dissemination of S-NPP derived data to NWS WFOs and highlight unique applications and value of data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), specifically applications of high resolution visible and infrared data, uses of the day-night (or near constant contrast) band, and multispectral composites. Other applications are envisioned through use of selected channels of the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS), the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS), and the Ozone Mapper Profiler Suite (OMPS). This presentation will also highlight opportunities for future collaboration with SPoRT and activities planned for participation in the NOAA Joint Polar Satellite Program (JPSS) Proving Ground.
Smith, M. R.; Fuell, K.; Molthan, A.; Jedlovec, G.
The California Research at the Nexus of Air Quality and Climate Change (CalNex) and Carbonaceous Aerosol and Radiative Effects Study (CARES) field campaigns during May and June 2010 provided a data set appropriate for studying the structure of the atmospheric boundary layer (BL). The NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) airborne high spectral resolution lidar (HSRL) was deployed to California onboard the NASA LaRC B-200 aircraft to aid in characterizing aerosol properties during these two field campaigns. Measurements of aerosol extinction (532 nm), backscatter (532 and 1064 nm), and depolarization (532 and 1064 nm) profiles during 31 flights, many in coordination with other research aircraft and ground sites, constitute a diverse data set for use in characterizing the spatial and temporal distribution of aerosols, as well as the depth and variability of the daytime mixed layer (ML) height. The paper describes the modified Haar wavelet covariance transform method used to derive the ML heights from HSRL backscatter profiles. HSRL ML heights are validated using ML heights derived from two radiosonde profile sites during CARES. Comparisons between ML heights from HSRL and a Vaisala ceilometer operated during CalNex were used to evaluate the representativeness of a fixed measurement over a larger region. In the Los Angeles basin, comparisons of ML heights derived from HSRL measurements and ML heights derived from the ceilometer result in a very good agreement (mean bias difference of 10 m and correlation coefficient of 0.89) up to 30 km away from the ceilometer site, but are essentially uncorrelated for larger distances, indicating that the spatial variability of the ML height is significant over these distances and not necessarily well captured by limited ground stations. The HSRL ML heights are also used to evaluate the performance in simulating the temporal and spatial variability of ML heights from the Weather Research and Forecasting Chemistry (WRF-Chem) community model. When compared to aerosol ML heights from HSRL, thermodynamic ML heights from WRF-Chem were underpredicted in the CalNex and CARES regions, shown by a bias difference value of -157 m and -29 m, respectively. Better agreement over the Central Valley than in mountainous regions suggests that some variability in the ML height is not well captured at the 4 km grid resolution of the model. A small but significant number of cases have poor agreement when WRF-Chem consistently overestimates the ML height in the late afternoon. Additional comparisons with WRF-Chem aerosol mixed layer heights show no significant improvement over thermodynamic ML heights, confirming that any differences between measurement and model are not due to the methodology of ML height determination.
Scarino, A. J.; Obland, M. D.; Fast, J. D.; Burton, S. P.; Ferrare, R. A.; Hostetler, C. A.; Berg, L. K.; Lefer, B.; Haman, C.; Hair, J. W.; Rogers, R. R.; Butler, C.; Cook, A. L.; Harper, D. B.
U.S. Tsunami Warning Centers use real-time bottom pressure (BP) data transmitted from a network of buoys deployed in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans to tune source coefficients of tsunami forecast models. For accurate coefficients and therefore forecasts, tides at the buoys must be accounted for. In this study, five methods for coefficient estimation are compared, each of which accounts for tides differently. The first three subtract off a tidal prediction based on (1) a localized harmonic analysis involving 29 days of data immediately preceding the tsunami event, (2) 68 pre-existing harmonic constituents specific to each buoy, and (3) an empirical orthogonal function fit to the previous 25 hrs of data. Method (4) is a Kalman smoother that uses method (1) as its input. These four methods estimate source coefficients after detiding. Method (5) estimates the coefficients simultaneously with a two-component harmonic model that accounts for the tides. The five methods are evaluated using archived data from eleven...
Percival, Donald B; Eble, Marie C; Gica, Edison; Huang, Paul Y; Mofjeld, Harold O; Spillane, Michael C; Titov, Vasily V; Tolkova, Elena I
This study was conducted in cooperation with the Department of Industrial Engineering of King Abdulaziz University. The main objective of this study is to meet some of the goals of the Solar Energy Water Desalination Plant (SEWDP) plan in the area of economic evaluation. The first part of this project focused on describing the existing trend in the operation and maintenance (OandM) cost for the SOLERAS Solar Energy Water Desalination Plant in Yanbu. The second part used the information obtained on existing trends to find suitable forecasting models. These models, which are found here, are sensitive to changes in costs trends. Nevertheless, the study presented here has established the foundation for (OandM) costs estimating in the plant. The methodologies used in this study should continue as more data on operation and maintenance costs become available, because, in the long run, the trend in costs will help determine where cost effectiveness might be improved. 7 refs., 24 figs., 15 tabs.
Al-Idrisi, M.; Hamad, G.
data, available since the year 1800, the Piedmont Region is hit by calamitous meteorological eventsOperational hydro-meteorological warning and real-time flood forecasting:the Piemonte region case study 457 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 9(4), 457466 (2005) Â© EGU Operational hydro-meteorological
Paris-Sud XI, UniversitÃ© de
This Web-based module is a component of the Integrated Sensor Training (IST) Professional Development Series (PDS) Professional Competency Unit #6-Satellite Data and Products. Dr. Stan Kidder of the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) at Colorado State University is the principal science advisor for this module with significant assistance from Dr. Gary Hufford (NWS Alaska Region). The module provides an overview of current polar satellite products and their applications in forecasting situations and also contains a summary of instruments currently in use and a short history of the U.S. polar satellite program. The module is the first in a series focusing on polar satellite products and applications.
Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are nowadays gaining more and more attention in providing high-resolution rainfall forecasts for real-time flood forecasting. In this study, the newest generation NWP model, Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model, is integrated with the rainfall-runoff model in real-time to generate accurate flow forecasts at the catchment scale. The rainfall-runoff model is chosen as the Probability Distribution Model (PDM), which has widely been used for flood forecasting. Dual data assimilation is carried out for real-time updating of the flood forecasting system. The 3-Dimensional Variational (3DVar) data assimilation scheme is incorporated with WRF to assimilate meteorological observations and weather radar reflectivity data in order to improve the WRF rainfall forecasts; meanwhile real-time flow observations are assimilated by the Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) model to update the forecasted flow transformed by PDM. The Brue catchment located in Southwest England with a drainage area of 135.2 km2 is chosen to be the study area. A dense rain gauge network was set up during a project named HYREX (Hydrological radar experiment), which contains 49 rain gauges and a C-band weather radar, providing with sufficient hydrological and radar data for WRF model verification and data assimilation. Besides the radar reflectivity data, two types of NCAR archived data (SYNOP and SOUND, http://dss.ucar.edu) are also assimilated by 3DVar, which provide real-time surface and upper-level observations of pressure, temperature, humidity and wind from fixed and mobile stations. Four 24 hour storm events are selected from the HYREX project with different characteristics regarding storm formation and rainfall-runoff responses. Real-time flood forecasting is then carried out by the constructed forecasting system for the four storm events with a forecast lead time of 12 hours. The forecasting accuracy of the whole system is found to be largely improved by incorporating the WRF forecasted rainfall when the forecast lead time is beyond the catchment concentration time. The assimilation of real-time meteorological and radar data also show great advantage in improving the performance of the flood forecasting system. Key words: real-time flood forecasting; Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model; high-resolution rainfall forecasts; dual data assimilation.
Liu, Jia; Bray, Michaela; Han, Dawei
To support marine ecological resource management and emergency response and to enhance scientific understanding of physical and biogeochemical processes in Puget Sound, a real-time Puget Sound Operational Forecast System (PS-OFS) was developed by the Coastal Ocean Dynamics & Ecosystem Modeling group (CODEM) of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). PS-OFS employs the state-of-the-art three-dimensional coastal ocean model and closely follows the standards and procedures established by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Ocean Service (NOS). PS-OFS consists of four key components supporting the Puget Sound Circulation and Transport Model (PS-CTM): data acquisition, model execution and product archive, model skill assessment, and model results dissemination. This paper provides an overview of PS-OFS and its ability to provide vital real-time oceanographic information to the Puget Sound community. PS-OFS supports pacific northwest region’s growing need for a predictive tool to assist water quality management, fish stock recovery efforts, maritime emergency response, nearshore land-use planning, and the challenge of climate change and sea level rise impacts. The structure of PS-OFS and examples of the system inputs and outputs, forecast results are presented in details.
Yang, Zhaoqing; Khangaonkar, Tarang; Chase, Jared M.; Wang, Taiping
One of the grand challenges of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission is to improve cold season precipitation measurements in middle and high latitudes through the use of high-frequency passive microwave radiometry. For this, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the Goddard microphysics scheme is coupled with a satellite data simulation unit (WRF-SDSU) that has been developed to facilitate over-land snowfall retrieval algorithms by providing a virtual cloud library and microwave brightness temperature (Tb) measurements consistent with the GPM Microwave Imager (GMI). This study tested the Goddard cloud microphysics scheme in WRF for two snowstorm events, a lake effect and a synoptic event, that occurred between 20 and 22 January 2007 over the Canadian CloudSAT/CALIPSO Validation Project (C3VP) site in Ontario, Canada. The 24h-accumulated snowfall predicted by the WRF model with the Goddard microphysics was comparable to the observed accumulated snowfall by the ground-based radar for both events. The model correctly predicted the onset and ending of both snow events at the CARE site. WRF simulations capture the basic cloud properties as seen by the ground-based radar and satellite (i.e., CloudSAT, AMSU-B) observations as well as the observed cloud streak organization in the lake event. This latter result reveals that WRF was able to capture the cloud macro-structure reasonably well.
Shi, J. J.; Tao, W.-K.; Matsui, T.; Cifelli, R.; Huo, A.; Lang, S.; Tokay, A.; Peters-Lidard, C.; Jackson, G.; Rutledge, S.; Petersen, W.
Weather forecasting authorities are perceiving increasing pressure from the public to extend and improve the quality of short-range predictions while reducing costs and increasing the overall forecasting efficiency. The European community is strongly committed to attain this increased efficiency by focusing on the observational component of the weather forecasting process. One important research commitment is oriented to optimize the integrated
L. Garcies Artigues; V. Homar Santaner
This study investigates the economic value of several simple forecasts of 3-month average eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). Two Chilean agricultural regions were selected and the value of information for the main crops is obtained using an integrated model. The value of perfect forecasts is computed along with several simply formulated imperfect seasonal forecasts using a classification
Francisco J. Meza; Daniel S. Wilks
In order to improve the hydrography forecast of the North and Baltic Seas, the operational circulation model of the German Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH) has been augmented by a data assimilation (DA) system. The DA system has been developed based on the Singular Evolution Interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter algorithm (Pham, 1998) coded within the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (Nerger et al., 2004, Nerger and Hiller, 2012). Previously the only data assimilated were sea surface temperature (SST) measurements obtained with the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) aboard NOAA's polar orbiting satellites. While the quality of the forecast has been significantly improved by assimilating the satellite data (Losa et al., 2012, Losa et al., 2014), assimilation of in situ observational temperature (T) and salinity (S) profiles has allowed for further improvement. Assimilating MARNET time series and CTD and Scanfish measurements, however, required a careful calibration of the DA system with respect to local analysis. The study addresses the problem of the local SEIK analysis accounting for the data within a certain radius. The localisation radius is considered spatially variable and dependent on the system local dynamics. As such, we define the radius of the data influence based on the energy ratio of the baroclinic and barotropic flows. D. T. Pham, J. Verron, L. Gourdeau, 1998. Singular evolutive Kalman filters for data assimilation in oceanography, C. R. Acad. Sci. Paris, Earth and Planetary Sciences, 326, 255-260. L. Nerger, W. Hiller, J. Schröter, 2004. PDAF - The Parallel Data Assimilation Framework: Experiences with Kalman Filtering, In: Zwieflhofer, W., Mozdzynski, G. (Eds.), Use of high performance computing in meteorology: proceedings of the Eleventh ECMWF Workshop on the Use of High Performance Computing in Meteorology. Singapore: World Scientific, Reading, UK, 63-83. L. Nerger, W. Hiller, 2012. Software for Ensemble-based Data Assimilation Systems —Implementation Strategies and Scalability, Computers and Geosciences, 55, 110-118. S. N. Losa, S. Danilov, J. Schröter, L. Nerger, S. Maßmann, F. Janssen, 2012. Assimilating NOAA SST data into the BSH operational circulation model for the North and Baltic Seas: Inference about the data. Journal of Marine Systems, 105-108, 152-162. S. N. Losa, S. Danilov, J. Schröter, L. Nerger, S. Maßmann, F. Janssen, 2014. Assimilating NOAA SST data into the BSH operational circulation model for the North and Baltic Seas: Part.2 Sensitivity of the forecast's skill to the prior model error statistics. Journal of Marine Systems, 129, 259-270.
Losa, Svetlana; Danilov, Sergey; Schröter, Jens; Nerger, Lars; Maßmann, Silvia; Janssen, Frank
The Future of Climate Extremes in the Caribbean Extreme Cuban Climate (XCUBE) project, which is funded by the Norwegian Directorate for Civil Protection as part of an assignment for the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs to support scientific cooperation between Norway and Cuba, carried out a training workshop on seasonal forecasting, reanalysis data, and weather research and forecasting (WRF). The workshop was a follow-up to the XCUBE workshop conducted in Havana in 2013 and provided Cuban scientists with access to expertise on seasonal forecasting, the WRF model developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the community, data assimilation, and reanalysis.
Antuña, Juan Carlos; Kalnay, Eugenia; Mesquita, Michel D. S.
The Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART was originally designed for calculating long-range and mesoscale dispersion of air pollutants from point sources, such that occurring after an accident in a nuclear power plant. In the meantime, FLEXPART has evolved into a comprehensive tool for atmospheric transport modeling and analysis at different scales. A need for further multiscale modeling and analysis has encouraged new developments in FLEXPART. In this paper, we present a FLEXPART version that works with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale meteorological model. We explain how to run this new model and present special options and features that differ from those of the preceding versions. For instance, a novel turbulence scheme for the convective boundary layer has been included that considers both the skewness of turbulence in the vertical velocity as well as the vertical gradient in the air density. To our knowledge, FLEXPART is the first model for which such a scheme has been developed. On a more technical level, FLEXPART-WRF now offers effective parallelization, and details on computational performance are presented here. FLEXPART-WRF output can either be in binary or Network Common Data Form (NetCDF) format, both of which have efficient data compression. In addition, test case data and the source code are provided to the reader as a Supplement. This material and future developments will be accessible at http://www.flexpart.eu.
Brioude, J.; Arnold, D.; Stohl, A.; Cassiani, M.; Morton, D.; Seibert, P.; Angevine, W.; Evan, S.; Dingwell, A.; Fast, J. D.; Easter, R. C.; Pisso, I.; Burkhart, J.; Wotawa, G.
Scientists have made great strides in modeling physical processes that represent various weather and climate phenomena. Many modeling systems that represent the major earth system components (the atmosphere, land surface, and ocean) have been developed over the years. However, developing advanced Earth system applications that integrates these independently developed modeling systems have remained a daunting task due to limitations in computer hardware and software. Recently, efforts such as the Earth System Modeling Ramework (ESMF) and Assistance for Land Modeling Activities (ALMA) have focused on developing standards, guidelines, and computational support for coupling earth system model components. In this article, the development of a coupled land-atmosphere hydrometeorological modeling system that adopts these community interoperability standards, is described. The land component is represented by the Land Information System (LIS), developed by scientists at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, a mesoscale numerical weather prediction system, is used as the atmospheric component. LIS includes several community land surface models that can be executed at spatial scales as fine as 1km. The data management capabilities in LIS enable the direct use of high resolution satellite and observation data for modeling. Similarly, WRF includes several parameterizations and schemes for modeling radiation, microphysics, PBL and other processes. Thus the integrated LIS-WRF system facilitates several multi-model studies of land-atmosphere coupling that can be used to advance earth system studies.
Kumar, Sujay V.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Eastman, Joseph L.; Tao, Wei-Kuo
The policy and operational aspects of applying space weather information to the international aviation industry are of growing concern to both operators and regulators, especially since the number of cross-polar flights have increased from a handful of demonstration flights in 1999 to over a dozen daily schedules today. The aviation industry is primarily concerned about risks during high latitude (>50°N)
Genene Fisher; Bryn Jones
The oil spill from Prestige tanker showed the importance of scientifically based protocols to minimize the impacts on the environment. In this work, we describe a new forecasting system to predict oil spill trajectories and their potential impacts on the coastal zone. The system is formed of three main interconnected modules that address different capabilities: (1) an operational circulation sub-system that includes nested models at different scales, data collection with near-real time assimilation, new tools for initialization or assimilation based on genetic algorithms and feature-oriented strategic sampling; (2) an oil spill coastal sub-system that allows simulation of the trajectories and fate of spilled oil together with evaluation of coastal zone vulnerability using environmental sensitivity indexes; (3) a risk management sub-system for decision support based on GIS technology. The system is applied to the Mediterranean Sea where surface currents are highly variable in space and time, and interactions between local, sub-basin and basin scale increase the non-linear interactions effects which need to be adequately resolved at each one of the intervening scales. Besides the Mediterranean Sea is a complex reduced scale ocean representing a real scientific and technological challenge for operational oceanography and particularly for oil spill response and search and rescue operations. PMID:16309714
Jordi, A; Ferrer, M I; Vizoso, G; Orfila, A; Basterretxea, G; Casas, B; Alvarez, A; Roig, D; Garau, B; Martínez, M; Fernández, V; Fornés, A; Ruiz, M; Fornós, J J; Balaguer, P; Duarte, C M; Rodríguez, I; Alvarez, E; Onken, R; Orfila, P; Tintoré, J
The Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) at Vandenberg Air Force Base is the command and control focal point for the operational employment of worldwide joint space forces. The JSpOC focuses on planning and executing US Strategic Command's Joint Functional Component Command for Space (JFCC SPACE) mission. Through the JSpOC, the Weather Specialty Team (WST) monitors space and terrestrial weather effects, plans and assesses weather impacts on military operations, and provides reach-back support for deployed theater solar and terrestrial needs. This presentation will detail how space weather affects the JSpOC mission set and how the scientific community can enhance the WST's capabilities and effectiveness.
This study compares the error characteristics associated with two grid refinement approaches including global variable resolution and nesting for high resolution regional climate modeling. The global variable resolution model, Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere (MPAS-A), and the limited area model, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, are compared in an idealized aqua-planet context. For MPAS-A, simulations have been performed with a quasi-uniform resolution global domain at coarse (1°) and high (0.25°) resolution, and a variable resolution domain with a high resolution region at 0.25° configured inside a coarse resolution global domain at 1° resolution. Similarly, WRF has been configured to run on a coarse (1°) and high (0.25°) tropical channel domain as well as a nested domain with a high resolution region at 0.25° nested two-way inside the coarse resolution (1°) tropical channel. The variable resolution or nested simulations are compared against the high resolution simulations. Both models respond to increased resolution with enhanced precipitation. Limited and significant reduction in the ratio of convective to non-convective precipitation. The limited area grid refinement induces zonal asymmetry in precipitation (heating), accompanied by zonal anomalous Walker like circulations and standing Rossby wave signals. Within the high resolution limited area, the zonal distribution of precipitation is affected by advection in MPAS-A and by the nesting strategy in WRF. In both models, 20 day Kelvin waves propagate through the high-resolution domains fairly unaffected by the change in resolution (and the presence of a boundary in WRF) but increased resolution strengthens eastward propagating inertio-gravity waves.
Hagos, Samson M.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Rauscher, Sara; Ringler, Todd
This paper investigates forecasts of US inflation at the 12-month horizon. The starting point is the conventional unemployment rate Phillips curve, which is examined in a simulated out-of-sample forecasting framework. Inflation forecasts produced by the Phillips curve generally have been more accurate than forecasts based on other macroeconomic variables, including interest rates, money and commodity prices. These forecasts can however
James H. Stock; Mark W. Watson
Prior to the XXIX Olympiad in Beijing, air quality was a major concern for many athletes and visitors to the Games. In response to the need for enhanced air quality forecasts, we explored and tested the capability of medium-range air quality forecasting in a multimodel ensemble system. The system consists of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry module (WRF-Chem), the Fifth-Generation NCAR/PennState Mesoscale Model (MM5), and the Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System (NAQPMS) developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP). Both MM5 and NAQPMS have been in operational use to produce short-term air quality forecasts. WRFChem is the major addition to the multimodel system. Forced with the forecast from the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GENS) at the lateral boundary, the multimodel system makes ensemble air quality forecasts out to 16 days with emission scenarios that reflect measures for the Olympics, including the closing down of factories around the city and beyond, a traffic control program that reduced the number of automobiles around the city by about half and elimination of all construction activities. Analyses of two forecasts are presented in this study. They were made on 5 August 2008 and 8 August 2008, both covering the entire Olympic period. Each forecast consists of three ensemble members that were produced with the same regional model but were forced by the control and two 'extremes' of the GENS forecast. The two extreme members were hand-picked to represent the best and worst case scenarios. The forecasts are evaluated with observations taken during the Olympic Games that include satellite observations, in-situ meteorological stations, LIDAR and air quality observations at the IAP tower site, 1 km away from the 'Bird Nest'. The analyses show good model skill in the first 3 days and generally satisfactory after 96 hours, with a successful forecast of potential pollution episode on 20 August 2008. The challenge has been posed to develop a method coupled with regional climatology and historical air quality data in narrowing the uncertainties in the medium-range air quality predictions in the future.
Zhang, Y.; Smith, J.; Wang, Z.; Luo, L.; Wu, Q.
Realistic regional climate simulations are important in understanding the mechanisms of summer rainfall in the southeastern United States (SE US) and in making seasonal predictions. In this study, skills of SE US summer rainfall simulation at a 15-km resolution are evaluated using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model driven by climate forecast system reanalysis data. Influences of parameterization schemes and model resolution on the rainfall are investigated. It is shown that the WRF simulations for SE US summer rainfall are most sensitive to cumulus schemes, moderately sensitive to planetary boundary layer schemes, and less sensitive to microphysics schemes. Among five WRF cumulus schemes analyzed in this study, the Zhang-McFarlane scheme outperforms the other four. Further analysis suggests that the superior performance of the Zhang-McFarlane scheme is attributable primarily to its capability of representing rainfall-triggering processes over the SE US, especially the positive relationship between convective available potential energy and rainfall. In addition, simulated rainfall using the Zhang-McFarlane scheme at the 15-km resolution is compared with that at a 3-km convection-permitting resolution without cumulus scheme to test whether the increased horizontal resolution can further improve the SE US rainfall simulation. Results indicate that the simulations at the 3-km resolution do not show obvious advantages over those at the 15-km resolution with the Zhang-McFarlane scheme. In conclusion, our study suggests that in order to obtain a satisfactory simulation of SE US summer rainfall, choosing a cumulus scheme that can realistically represent the convective rainfall triggering mechanism may be more effective than solely increasing model resolution.
Li, Laifang; Li, Wenhong; Jin, Jiming
Current seasonal climate forecasts and climate change projections of the North American monsoon are based on the use of course-scale information from a general circulation model. The global models, however, have substantial difficulty in resolving the regional scale forcing mechanisms of precipitation. This is especially true during the period of the North American Monsoon in the warm season. Precipitation is driven primarily due to the diurnal cycle of convection, and this process cannot be resolve in coarse-resolution global models that have a relatively poor representation of terrain. Though statistical downscaling may offer a relatively expedient method to generate information more appropriate for the regional scale, and is already being used in the resource decision making processes in the Southwest U.S., its main drawback is that it cannot account for a non-stationary climate. Here we demonstrate the use of a regional climate model, specifically the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, for dynamical downscaling of the North American Monsoon. To drive the WRF simulations, we use retrospective reforecasts from the Climate Forecast System (CFS) model, the operational model used at the U.S. National Center for Environmental Prediction, and three select “well performing” IPCC AR 4 models for the A2 emission scenario. Though relatively computationally expensive, the use of WRF as a regional climate model in this way adds substantial value in the representation of the North American Monsoon. In both cases, the regional climate model captures a fairly realistic and reasonable monsoon, where none exists in the driving global model, and captures the dominant modes of precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Long-term precipitation variability and trends in these simulations is considered via the standardized precipitation index (SPI), a commonly used metric to characterize long-term drought. Dynamically downscaled climate projection data will be integrated into future water resource projections in the state of Arizona, through a cooperative effort involving numerous water resource stakeholders.
Castro, C. L.; Dominguez, F.; Chang, H.
Space weather, the changes in the near-Earth space environment, is important to a wide range of users as well as the public. These users extend across a wide range of public, commercial, and military organizations. It is hard for the research community to connect to these users in a way that can translate data into knowledge, and knowledge into actionable information. The research community also must work within the confines of academic disciplines and funding organizations. This situation calls for better knowledge management and a virtual organization to support that knowledge. SWIFTER is a concept for a virtual organization that will use knowledge management techniques to help refine data products, leverage the expertise to a wider community, speed the development of new data products, and provide a resource for collaboration between users and researchers. Here we will discuss the discuss the structure and operation of the SWIFTER virtual organization, and how it can enable better transition of research tools to operational assets.
Schaefer, R. K.; Paxton, L. J.; Weiss, M.; Holm, J. M.; Morrison, D.; Barnes, R. J.
Oil spill modeling is considered to be an important part of a decision support system (DeSS) for oil spill combatment and is useful for remedial action in case of accidents, as well as for designing the environmental monitoring system that is frequently set up after major accidents. Many accidents take place in coastal areas, implying that low resolution basin scale ocean models are of limited use for predicting the trajectories of an oil spill. In this study, we target the oil spill in connection with the "Full City" accident on the Norwegian south coast and compare operational simulations from three different oil spill models for the area. The result of the analysis is that all models do a satisfactory job. The "standard" operational model for the area is shown to have severe flaws, but by applying ocean forcing data of higher resolution (1.5 km resolution), the model system shows results that compare well with observations. The study also shows that an ensemble of results from the three different models is useful when predicting/analyzing oil spill in coastal areas.
Broström, G.; Carrasco, A.; Hole, L. R.; Dick, S.; Janssen, F.; Mattsson, J.; Berger, S.
This is the second module in the Mesoscale Meteorology Primer series. This module starts with a forecast scenario that occurs during a winter radiation fog event in the Central Valley of California. After that, a conceptual section covers the physical processes of radiation fog through its life cycle. Operational sections addressing fog detection and forecasting conclude the module
Oil spill modeling is considered to be an important decision support system (DeSS) useful for remedial action in case of accidents, as well as for designing the environmental monitoring system that is frequently set up after major accidents. Many accidents take place in coastal areas implying that low resolution basin scale ocean models is of limited use for predicting the trajectories of an oil spill. In this study, we target the oil spill in connection with the Full City accident on the Norwegian south coast and compare three different oil spill models for the area. The result of the analysis is that all models do a satisfactory job. The "standard" operational model for the area is shown to have severe flaws but including an analysis based on a higher resolution model (1.5 km resolution) for the area the model system show results that compare well with observations. The study also shows that an ensemble using three different models is useful when predicting/analyzing oil spill in coastal areas.
Broström, G.; Carrasco, A.; Hole, L. R.; Dick, S.; Janssen, F.; Mattsson, J.; Berger, S.
Fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)) is majorly formed by precursor gases, such as sulfur dioxide (SO(2)) and nitrogen oxides (NO(x)), which are emitted largely from intense industrial operations and transportation activities. PM(2.5) has been shown to affect respiratory health in humans. Evaluation of source regions and assessment of emission source contributions in the Gulf Coast region of the USA will be useful for the development of PM(2.5) regulatory and mitigation strategies. In the present study, the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model driven by the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model is used to identify the emission source locations and transportation trends. Meteorological observations as well as PM(2.5) sulfate and nitric acid concentrations were collected at two sites during the Mississippi Coastal Atmospheric Dispersion Study, a summer 2009 field experiment along the Mississippi Gulf Coast. Meteorological fields during the campaign were simulated using WRF with three nested domains of 36, 12, and 4 km horizontal resolutions and 43 vertical levels and validated with North American Mesoscale Analysis. The HYSPLIT model was integrated with meteorological fields derived from the WRF model to identify the source locations using backward trajectory analysis. The backward trajectories for a 24-h period were plotted at 1-h intervals starting from two observation locations to identify probable sources. The back trajectories distinctly indicated the sources to be in the direction between south and west, thus to have origin from local Mississippi, neighboring Louisiana state, and Gulf of Mexico. Out of the eight power plants located within the radius of 300 km of the two monitoring sites examined as sources, only Watson, Cajun, and Morrow power plants fall in the path of the derived back trajectories. Forward dispersions patterns computed using HYSPLIT were plotted from each of these source locations using the hourly mean emission concentrations as computed from past annual emission strength data to assess extent of their contribution. An assessment of the relative contributions from the eight sources reveal that only Cajun and Morrow power plants contribute to the observations at the Wiggins Airport to a certain extent while none of the eight power plants contribute to the observations at Harrison Central High School. As these observations represent a moderate event with daily average values of 5-8 ?g m(-3) for sulfate and 1-3 ?g m(-3) for HNO(3) with differences between the two spatially varied sites, the local sources may also be significant contributors for the observed values of PM(2.5). PMID:23205159
Yerramilli, Anjaneyulu; Dodla, Venkata Bhaskar Rao; Challa, Venkata Srinivas; Myles, Latoya; Pendergrass, William R; Vogel, Christoph A; Dasari, Hari Prasad; Tuluri, Francis; Baham, Julius M; Hughes, Robert L; Patrick, Chuck; Young, John H; Swanier, Shelton J; Hardy, Mark G
The Asian summer monsoon is a prominent feature of the global circulation that is associated with an upper-level anticyclone (ULAC) that stands out vividly in satellite observations of trace gases. The ULAC also is an important region of troposphere-to-stratosphere transport. We ran the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at convective-permitting scales (4 km grid spacing) between 10 and 20 August 2012 to understand the role of convection in rapidly transporting boundary layer air into the ULAC. Such high-resolution modeling of the Asian ULAC previously has not been documented in the literature. Comparison of our WRF simulation with reanalysis and satellite observations showed that WRF simulated the atmosphere sufficiently well to be used to study convective transport into the ULAC. A back-trajectory analysis based on hourly WRF output showed that > 90% of convectively influenced parcels reaching the ULAC came from the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and the southern slope (SS) of the Himalayas. A distinct diurnal cycle is seen in the convective trajectories, with a majority of them crossing the boundary layer between 1600 and 2300 local solar time. This finding highlights the role of "everyday" diurnal convection in transporting boundary layer air into the ULAC. WRF output at 15 min intervals was produced for 16 August to examine the convection in greater detail. This high-temporal output revealed that the weakest convection in the study area occurred over the TP. However, because the TP is at 3000-5000 m a.m.s.l., its convection does not have to be as strong to reach the ULAC as in lower altitude regions. In addition, because the TP's elevated heat source is a major cause of the ULAC, we propose that convection over the TP and the neighboring SS is ideally situated geographically to impact the ULAC. The vertical mass flux of water vapor into the ULAC also was calculated. Results show that the TP and SS regions dominate other Asian regions in transporting moisture vertically into the ULAC. Because convection reaching the ULAC is more widespread over the TP than nearby, we propose that the abundant convection partially explains the TP's dominant water vapor fluxes. In addition, greater outgoing longwave radiation reaches the upper levels of the TP due to its elevated terrain. This creates a warmer ambient upper-level environment, allowing parcels with greater saturation mixing ratios to enter the ULAC. Lakes in the Tibetan Plateau are shown to provide favorable conditions for deep convection during the night.
Heath, N. K.; Fuelberg, H. E.
Weather Forecasting is one of several online guides produced by the Weather World 2010 project at the University of Illinois. These guides use multimedia technology and the dynamic capabilities of the web to incorporate text, colorful diagrams, animations, computer simulations, audio, and video to introduce topics and concepts in the atmospheric sciences. This module introduces forecast methods and the numerous factors one must consider when attempting to make an accurate forecast. Sections include forecasting methods for different scenarios, surface features affecting forecasting, forecasting temperatures for day and night, and factors for forecasting precipitation.
MERSEA (Marine EnviRonment and Security for the European Area) is an Integrated Project funded by the EC under the FP6, Space thematic priority for GMES, Ocean and Marine Applications. Forty agencies and industrial partners participate in the project whose aim is to provide an integrated service of global and regional ocean monitoring and forecasting to intermediate users and policy makers in support of safe and efficient offshore activities, environmental management, security, and sustainable use of marine resources. The system to be developed in this 4-year project (2004 - 2007) will be the Ocean and Marine services element of GMES to be established in 2008. At the core of the system is the collection, validation and assimilation of remote sensed and in situ data into ocean circulation models that allow for the self consistent merging of the data types, interpolation in time and space for uniform coverage, now-casting (i.e. data synthesis in real-time), forecasting, and hind-casting, and delivery of information products. The project will lead to a single high-resolution global ocean forecasting system shared by European partners together with a co-ordinated network of regional systems for European waters which will provide the platform required for coastal forecasting systems. During the project the main pre-operational systems will be transitioned towards operational status and three of the centres will converge on a single ocean model framework suitable for both the deep ocean and shelf-seas. The project will federate the resources and expertise of diverse institutes, agencies, and companies in the public and private sector, in the fields of satellite data processing, in situ ocean observing systems, data management, ocean and ecosystem modelling, ocean, marine and weather forecasting. A global high resolution model (1/12°) will be developed, as well as improved systems for the Arctic, Baltic, Mediterranean and NE Atlantic. Down-scaling to regional systems will be implemented by nesting methods. Specific applications to be developed include bio-geochemical variability in European regional and shelf seas (European Atlantic margin shelf including North and Irish Seas) and experiments on forecasting the ocean-atmosphere on daily to seasonal time scales. User products in support of offshore oil exploration and production, wave forecasts and ship routing, and oil drift fate prediction will also be developed. The overall scope of the project will be described, including the opportunity for the delivery of ocean fields and products in support of research and application developments.
Desaubies, Y.; Mersea Consortium
Using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), an attempt was made to obtain calibrated probabilistic numerical forecasts of 2-m temperature over Iran. The ensemble employs three limited area models (WRF, MM5 and HRM), with WRF used with five different configurations. Initial and boundary conditions for MM5 and WRF are obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) and for HRM the initial and boundary conditions come from analysis of Global Model Europe (GME) of the German Weather Service. The resulting ensemble of seven members was run for a period of 6 months (from December 2008 to May 2009) over Iran. The 48-h raw ensemble outputs were calibrated using BMA technique for 120 days using a 40 days training sample of forecasts and relative verification data. The calibrated probabilistic forecasts were assessed using rank histogram and attribute diagrams. Results showed that application of BMA improved the reliability of the raw ensemble. Using the weighted ensemble mean forecast as a deterministic forecast it was found that the deterministic-style BMA forecasts performed usually better than the best member's deterministic forecast.
Soltanzadeh, I.; Azadi, M.; Vakili, G. A.
A set of assimilation experiments is conducted with the Three-Dimensional Variational (3DVAR) data assimilation system associated with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The purpose of the investigation is to assess the impact on forecast skill in response to assimilation of the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) clear-sky and cloud-cleared radiances over the Indian region. This is the first study that makes use of cloud-cleared radiances in the WRF system. Two sets of thirty-one 72 h forecasts are performed, all initialized at 00:00 UTC each day throughout the month of July 2010, to compare the model performance consequent to assimilation of clear-sky versus cloud-cleared radiances. A rigorous validation is produced against National Centers for Environmental Prediction analyzed wind, temperature, and moisture. In addition, the precipitation forecast skill is assessed against Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission observations. The results show improvement in forecast skill consequent to the assimilation of cloud-cleared radiances (CCR). The implications of using CCR for operational weather forecasting appear to be significant. Since only a small fraction of AIRS channels are cloud-free, information obtained in cloudy regions, which is meteorologically very significant, is lost when assimilating only clear-sky radiances (CSR). On the contrary, assimilation of CCR allows a larger yield, which leads to improved model performance. The assimilation of CCR resulted in significantly improved rainfall prediction compared to that obtained from the use of CSR. The finding of this study clearly shows the advantage of CCR available from clear-sky as well as from partly cloudy regions as compared to CSR, which are available only in clear-sky regions.
Singh, Randhir; Kishtawal, C. M.; Pal, P. K.
NASA prefers to land the space shuttle at Kennedy Space Center (KSC). When weather conditions violate Flight Rules at KSC, NASA will usually divert the shuttle landing to Edwards Air Force Base (EAFB) in Southern California. But forecasting surface winds at EAFB is a challenge for the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) forecasters due to the complex terrain that surrounds EAFB, One particular phenomena identified by SMG is that makes it difficult to forecast the EAFB surface winds is called "wind cycling". This occurs when wind speeds and directions oscillate among towers near the EAFB runway leading to a challenging deorbit bum forecast for shuttle landings. The large-scale numerical weather prediction models cannot properly resolve the wind field due to their coarse horizontal resolutions, so a properly tuned high-resolution mesoscale model is needed. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model meets this requirement. The AMU assessed the different WRF model options to determine which configuration best predicted surface wind speed and direction at EAFB, To do so, the AMU compared the WRF model performance using two hot start initializations with the Advanced Research WRF and Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model dynamical cores and compared model performance while varying the physics options.
Watson, Leela R.; Bauman, William H., III
All forecasters are familiar with occasional run-to-run changes in forecast direction that occur with medium-range (and sometimes even short-range) forecasts in the Global Forecast Model (aka AVN/MRF). This case describes two recent model flipflops in a pair of time-adjacent operational MRF runs, and shows how MRF ensemble forecasts shed light on what is actually going on in the operational MRF seasons.
This report describes the work done by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) in assessing the success of different model configurations in predicting warm season convection over East-Central Florida. The Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System (WRF EMS) software allows users to choose among two dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). There are also data assimilation analysis packages available for the initialization of the WRF model - the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS). Besides model core and initialization options, the WRF model can be run with one- or two-way nesting. Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many options within each core, creates challenges for local forecasters, such as determining which configuration options are best to address specific forecast concerns. This project assessed three different model intializations available to determine which configuration best predicts warm season convective initiation in East-Central Florida. The project also examined the use of one- and two-way nesting in predicting warm season convection.
Watson, Leela R.
The South American Biomass Burning Analysis (SAMBBA) field campaign took detailed in-situ flight measurements of aerosol during the 2012 dry season to characterise biomass burning aerosol and improve understanding of its impacts on weather and climate. Developments have been made to the Weather research and Forecast model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) model to improve the representation of biomass burning aerosol in the region by coupling a sectional aerosol scheme to the plume rise parameterisation. Brazilian Biomass Burning Emissions Model (3BEM) fire emissions are used, prepared using PREP-CHEM-SRC, and mapped to CBM-Z and MOSAIC species. Model results have been evaluated against remote sensing products, AERONET sites, and four case studies of flight measurements from the SAMBBA campaign. WRF-Chem predicted layers of elevated aerosol loadings (5-20 ?g sm-3) of particulate organic matter at high altitude (6-8 km) over tropical forest regions, while flight measurements showed a sharp decrease above 2-4 km altitude. This difference was attributed to the plume-rise parameterisation overestimating injection height. The 3BEM emissions product was modified using estimates of active fire size and burned area for the 2012 fire season, which reduced the fire size. The enhancement factor for fire emissions was increased from 1.3 to 5 to retain reasonable aerosol optical depths (AOD). The smaller fire size lowered the injection height of the emissions, but WRF-Chem still showed elevated aerosol loadings between 4-5 km altitude. Over eastern Cerrado (savannah-like) regions, both modelled and measured aerosol loadings decreased above approximately 4 km altitude. Compared with MODIS satellite data and AERONET sites, WRF-Chem represented AOD magnitude well (between 0.3-1.5) over western tropical forest fire regions in the first half of the campaign, but tended to over-predict them in the second half, when precipitation was more significant. Over eastern Cerrado regions, WRF-Chem tended to under-predict AOD. Modeled aerosol loadings in the east were higher in the modified emission scenario. The primary organic matter to black carbon ratio was typically between 8-10 in WRF-Chem. This was lower than western flights measurements (interquartile range of 11.6-15.7 in B734, 14.7-24.0 in B739), but similar to the eastern flight B742 (8.1-10.4). However, single scattering albedo was close to measured over the western flights (0.87-0.89 in model; 0.88-0.91 in flight B734, and 0.86-0.95 in flight B739 measurements) but too high over the eastern flight B742 (0.86-0.87 in model, 0.81-0.84 in measurements). This suggests that improvements are needed to both modeled aerosol composition and optical properties calculations in WRF-Chem.
Archer-Nicholls, S.; Lowe, D.; Darbyshire, E.; Morgan, W. T.; Bela, M. M.; Pereira, G.; Trembath, J.; Kaiser, J. W.; Longo, K. M.; Freitas, S. R.; Coe, H.; McFiggans, G.
One of major CRM approaches to studying precipitation processes is sometimes referred to as "cloud ensemble modeling". This approach allows many clouds of various sizes and stages of their lifecycles to be present at any given simulation time. Large-scale effects derived from observations are imposed into CRMs as forcing, and cyclic lateral boundaries are used. The advantage of this approach is that model results in terms of rainfall and QI and Q2 usually are in good agreement with observations. In addition, the model results provide cloud statistics that represent different types of clouds/cloud systems during their lifetime (life cycle). The large-scale forcing derived from MC3EI will be used to drive GCE model simulations. The model-simulated results will be compared with observations from MC3E. These GCE model-simulated datasets are especially valuable for LH algorithm developers. In addition, the regional scale model with very high-resolution, NASA Unified WRF is also used to real time forecast during the MC3E campaign to ensure that the precipitation and other meteorological forecasts are available to the flight planning team and to interpret the forecast results in terms of proposed flight scenarios. Post Mission simulations are conducted to examine the sensitivity of initial and lateral boundary conditions to cloud and precipitation processes and rainfall. We will compare model results in terms of precipitation and surface rainfall using GCE model and NU-WRF
Tao, Wei-Kuo; Wu, Di; Matsui, Toshi; Li, Xiaowen; Zeng, Xiping; Peter-Lidard, Christa; Hou, Arthur
As efforts to reduce emissions of green house gases take shape it is becoming obvious that an essential component of a viable solution will involve emission verification. While detailed inventories of green house gas sources will represent important component of the solution additional verification methodologies will be necessary to reduce uncertainties in emission estimates especially for distributed sources and CO2 offsets. We developed tools for solving inverse dispersion problem for distributed emissions of green house gases. For that purpose we combine probabilistic inverse methodology based on Bayesian inversion with stochastic sampling and weather forecasting and air quality model WRF-CHEM. We demonstrate estimation of CO2 emissions associated with fossil fuel burning in California over two one-week periods in 2006. We use WRF- CHEM in tracer simulation mode to solve forward dispersion problem for emissions over eleven air basins. We first use direct inversion approach to determine optimal location for a limited number of CO2 - C14 isotope sensors. We then use Bayesian inference with stochastic sampling to determine probability distributions for emissions from California air basins. Moreover, we vary the number of sensors and frequency of measurements to study their effect on the accuracy and uncertainty level of the emission estimation. Finally, to take into account uncertainties associated with forward modeling, we combine Bayesian inference and stochastic sampling with ensemble modeling. The ensemble is created by running WRF-CHEM with different initial and boundary conditions as well as different boundary layer and surface model options. This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344 (LLNL-ABS-406901-DRAFT). The project 07-ERD- 064 was funded by the Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program at LLNL.
Delle Monache, L.; Kosoviæ, B.; Cameron-Smith, P.; Bergmann, D.; Grant, K.; Guilderson, T.
In this study, urban climate in Nanjing of eastern China is simulated using 1-km resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a single-layer Urban Canopy Model. Based on the 10-summer simulation results from 2000 to 2009 we find that the WRF model is capable of capturing the high-resolution features of urban climate over Nanjing area. Although WRF underestimates the total precipitation amount, the model performs well in simulating the surface air temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation frequency, diurnal cycle and inter-annual variability. We find that extremely hot events occur most frequently in urban area, with daily maximum (minimum) temperature exceeding 36ºC (28ºC) in around 40% (32%) of days. Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect at surface is more evident during nighttime than daytime, with 20% of cases the UHI intensity above 2.5ºC at night. However, The UHI affects the vertical structure of Planet Boundary Layer (PBL) more deeply during daytime than nighttime. Net gain for latent heat and net radiation is larger over urban than rural surface during daytime. Correspondingly, net loss of sensible heat and ground heat are larger over urban surface resulting from warmer urban skin. Because of different diurnal characteristics of urban-rural differences in the latent heat, ground heat and other energy fluxes, the near surface UHI intensity exhibits a very complex diurnal feature. UHI effect is stronger in days with less cloud or lower wind speed. Model results reveal a larger precipitation frequency over urban area, mainly contributed by the light rain events (<10 mm day-1). Consistent with satellite dataset, around 10-20% more precipitation occurs in urban than rural area at afternoon induced by more unstable urban PBL, which induces a strong vertical atmospheric mixing and upward moisture transport. A significant enhancement of precipitation is found in the downwind region of urban in our simulations in the afternoon.
Yang, Ben; Zhang, Yaocun; Qian, Yun
We evaluate a regional-scale simulation with the WRF-Chem model for the VAMOS (Variability of the American Monsoon Systems) Ocean-Cloud-Atmosphere-Land Study Regional Experiment (VOCALS-REx), which sampled the Southeast Pacific's persistent stratocumulus deck. Evaluation of VOCALS-REx ship-based and three aircraft observations focuses on analyzing how aerosol loading affects marine boundary layer (MBL) dynamics and cloud microphysics. We compare local time series and campaign-averaged longitudinal gradients, and highlight differences in model simulations with (W) and without (NW) wet deposition processes. The higher aerosol loadings in the NW case produce considerable changes in MBL dynamics and cloud microphysics, in accordance with the established conceptual model of aerosol indirect effects. These include increase in cloud albedo, increase in MBL and cloud heights, drizzle suppression, increase in liquid water content, and increase in cloud lifetime. Moreover, better statistical representation of aerosol mass and number concentration improves model fidelity in reproducing observed spatial and temporal variability in cloud properties, including top and base height, droplet concentration, water content, rain rate, optical depth (COD) and liquid water path (LWP). Together, these help to quantify confidence in WRF-Chem's modeled aerosol-cloud interactions, especially in the activation parameterization, while identifying structural and parametric uncertainties including: irreversibility in rain wet removal; overestimation of marine DMS and sea salt emissions, and accelerated aqueous sulfate conversion. Our findings suggest that WRF-Chem simulates marine cloud-aerosol interactions at a level sufficient for applications in forecasting weather and air quality and studying aerosol climate forcing, and may do so with the reliability required for policy analysis.
Saide P. E.; Springston S.; Spak, S. N.; Carmichael, G. R.; Mena-Carrasco, M. A.; Yang, Q.; Howell, S.; Leon, D. C.; Snider, J. R.; Bandy, A. R.; Collett, J. L.; Benedict, K. B.; de Szoeke, S. P.; Hawkins, L. N.; Allen, G.; Crawford, I.; Crosier, J.
We evaluate a regional-scale simulation with the WRF-Chem model for the VAMOS (Variability of the American Monsoon Systems) Ocean-Cloud-Atmosphere-Land Study Regional Experiment (VOCALS-REx), which sampled the Southeast Pacific's persistent stratocumulus deck. Evaluation of VOCALS-REx ship-based and aircraft observations focuses on analyzing how aerosol loading affects marine boundary layer (MBL) dynamics and cloud microphysics. We compare local time series and campaign averaged longitudinal gradients, and highlight differences in model simulations with (W) and without wet (NW) deposition processes. The higher aerosol loadings in the NW case produce considerable changes in MBL dynamics and cloud microphysics, in accordance with the established conceptual model of aerosol indirect effects. These include increase in cloud albedo, increase in MBL and cloud heights, drizzle suppression, increase in liquid water content, and increase in cloud lifetime. Moreover, better statistical representation of aerosol mass and number concentration improves model fidelity in reproducing observed spatial and temporal variability in cloud properties, including top and base height, droplet concentration, water content, rain rate, optical depth (COD) and liquid water path (LWP). Together, these help to quantify confidence in WRF-Chem's modeled aerosol-cloud interactions, while identifying structural and parametric uncertainties including: irreversibility in rain wet removal; overestimation of marine DMS and sea salt emissions and accelerated aqueous sulfate conversion. Our findings suggest that WRF-Chem simulates marine cloud-aerosol interactions at a level sufficient for applications in forecasting weather and air quality and studying aerosol climate forcing, including the reliability required for policy analysis and geo-engineering applications.
Saide, Pablo; Spak, S. N.; Carmichael, Gregory; Mena-Carrasco, M. A.; Yang, Qing; Howell, S. G.; Leon, Dolislager; Snider, Jefferson R.; Bandy, Alan R.; Collett, Jeffrey L.; Benedict, K. B.; de Szoeke, S.; Hawkins, Lisa; Allen, Grant; Crawford, I.; Crosier, J.; Springston, S. R.
In the current work we present six hindcast Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations for the EURO-CORDEX domain with different configurations in microphysics, convection and radiation for the time period 1990-2008. All regional model simulations are forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis and have the same spatial resolution (0.44°). These simulations are evaluated for surface temperature, precipitation, short- and longwave downward radiation at the surface and total cloud cover. The analysis of the WRF ensemble indicates systematic biases in both temperature and precipitation linked to different physical mechanisms for the summer and winter season. Overestimation of total cloud cover and underestimation of downward shortwave radiation at the surface, mostly when using Grell-Devenyi convection and the CAM radiation scheme, intensifies the negative summer temperature bias in northern Europe (max -2.5 °C). Conversely, a strong positive downward shortwave summer bias in central (40-60%) and southern Europe mitigates the systematic cold bias in WRF over these regions, signifying a typical case of error compensation. Maximum winter cold bias is over north-eastern Europe (-2.8 °C); this location is indicative of land-atmosphere rather than cloud-radiation interactions. Precipitation is systematically overestimated in summer by all model configurations, especially the higher quantiles, which are associated with summertime deep cumulus convection. The Kain-Fritsch convection scheme produces the larger summertime precipitation biases over the Mediterranean. Winter precipitation is reproduced with lower biases by all model configurations (15-30%). The results of this study indicate the importance of evaluating not only the basic climatic parameters of interest for climate change applications (temperature-precipitation), but also other components of the energy and water cycle, in order to identify the sources of systematic biases, possible compensatory or masking mechanisms and suggest methodologies for model improvement.
Katragkou, E.; García-Díez, M.; Vautard, R.; Sobolowski, S.; Zanis, P.; Alexandri, G.; Cardoso, R. M.; Colette, A.; Fernández, J.; Gobiet, A.; Goergen, K.; Karacostas, T.; Knist, S.; Mayer, S.; Soares, P. M. M.; Pytharoulis, I.; Tegoulias, I.; Tsikerdekis, A.; Jacob, D.
Urbanization in China is an inevitable process coming along with economic development and population boost, which brings two impacts on air quality modeling. One is land-cover change and the other one is the additional stream of anthropogenic heat. In this study, we employed Weather Research Forecasting -Chemistry (WRF-Chem) to evaluate the sensitivity of meteorology and ozone concentrations in response to urbanization, by two cases, Jing-Jin-Ji (JJJ, indicating Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei) and Yangtze River Delta (YRD) areas. The first impact was achieved by updating the default land-cover data in WRF/Chem. Preliminary results showed an increase in 2-m temperature and PBL heights, and a decrease in wind-speed and dew points. For ozone concentrations, after updating land-cover data there was a corresponding rise in the surface level. The maximum increase was as much as 20 ppb for JJJ and 14 ppb for YRD area. The second impact was evaluated by adding anthropogenic heat stream into simulations. This heat stream was developed by considering both urban expansion and peak value at city centers. Test results showed a comparative 2-m temperature increase when compared to the first impact. While for PBL heights and dew points, the difference is negligible. Ozone concentrations within surface layer were also enhanced. The maximum increase was 7 ppb for JJJ area. Taking urbanization into consideration is a significant improvement for air quality modeling over China. After including both 1st and 2nd impact into WRF/Chem, the mean error was reduced by 35.6% for urban locations. One of our ongoing studies is focusing on further improvement of updating more recent land-cover data and anthropogenic heat. Ozone difference after including 1st impact Temporal plots for PKU(urban location)
Yu, M.; Carmichael, G.
The heaviest rainfall over 61 yr hit Beijing during 21-22 July 2012. Characterized by great rainfall amount and intensity, wide range, and high impact, this record-breaking heavy rainfall caused dozens of deaths and extensive damage. Despite favorable synoptic conditions, operational forecasts underestimated the precipitation amount and were late at predicting the rainfall start time. To gain a better understanding of the performance of mesoscale models, verification of high-resolution forecasts and analyses from the WRF-based BJ-RUCv2.0 model with a horizontal grid spacing of 3 km is carried out. The results show that water vapor is very rich and a quasi-linear precipitation system produces a rather concentrated rain area. Moreover, model forecasts are first verified statistically using equitable threat score and BIAS score. The BJ-RUCv2.0 forecasts under-predict the rainfall with southwestward displacement error and time delay of the extreme precipitation. Further quantitative analysis based on the contiguous rain area method indicates that major errors for total precipitation (> 5 mm h-1) are due to inaccurate precipitation location and pattern, while forecast errors for heavy rainfall (> 20 mm h-1) mainly come from precipitation intensity. Finally, the possible causes for the poor model performance are discussed through diagnosing large-scale circulation and physical parameters (water vapor flux and instability conditions) of the BJ-RUCv2.0 model output.
Jiang, Xiaoman; Yuan, Huiling; Xue, Ming; Chen, Xi; Tan, Xiaoguang
Prognostic meteorological models such as Mesoscale Model (MM5) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) are often used to supply inputs for retrospective air quality modeling done to support ozone and PM2.5 emission control demonstrations. In this study, multiple configurations of the WRF model are applied at 4 km grid resolution and compared to routine meteorological measurements and special study measurements taken in California during May-June 2010. One configuration is routinely used by US EPA to generate meteorological inputs for regulatory air quality modeling and another that is used by research scientists for evaluating meteorology and air quality. Mixing layer heights estimated from airborne High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL) measurements of aerosol backscatter are compared with WRF modeled planetary boundary layer (PBL) height estimates. Both WRF configurations generally capture the variability in HSRL mixing height between days, hour-to-hour, and between surface features such as terrain and land-water interfaces. Fractional bias over all flights and both model configurations range from -38% to 32% and fractional error ranges from 22% to 58%. Surface and upper level measurements of temperature, water mixing ratio, and winds are generally well characterized by both WRF model configurations, often more closely matching surface observations than the input analysis data (12-NAM). The WRF model generally captures orographic and mesoscale meteorological features in the central Valley (bifurcation of wind flow from the San Francisco bay into the Sacramento and San Joaquin valleys) and Los Angeles air basin (ocean-land flows) during this summer period.
Baker, Kirk R.; Misenis, Chris; Obland, Michael D.; Ferrare, Richard A.; Scarino, Amy J.; Kelly, James T.
The Aurora Forecast from the Geophysical Institute at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks, provides aurora activity predictions for different locations around the world. Predictions are available as maps or as audio files. Users select a geographical area, and they are presented with a forecast map with the approximate Universal Time of greatest activity for the selected longitude about an hour before local geomagnetic midnight. Also included are links to information about the forecasts, how to interpret the forecasts, geomagnetic activity, and aurora links.
Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have in recent years been increasingly used for the operational forecasting of floods by European hydrometeorological agencies. The most obvious advantage of HEPS is that more of the uncertainty in the modelling system can be assessed. In addition, ensemble prediction systems generally have better skill than deterministic systems both in the terms of the mean forecast performance and the potential forecasting of extreme events. Research efforts have so far mostly been devoted to the improvement of the physical and technical aspects of the model systems, such as increased resolution in time and space and better description of physical processes. Developments like these are certainly needed; however, in this paper we argue that there are other areas of HEPS that need urgent attention. This was also the result from a group exercise and a survey conducted to operational forecasters within the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) to identify the top priorities of improvement regarding their own system. They turned out to span a range of areas, the most popular being to include verification of an assessment of past forecast performance, a multi-model approach for hydrological modelling, to increase the forecast skill on the medium range (>3 days) and more focus on education and training on the interpretation of forecasts. In light of limited resources, we suggest a simple model to classify the identified priorities in terms of their cost and complexity to decide in which order to tackle them. This model is then used to create an action plan of short-, medium- and long-term research priorities with the ultimate goal of an optimal improvement of EFAS in particular and to spur the development of operational HEPS in general.
Wetterhall, Fredrik; Pappenberger, Florian; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Cloke, Hannah; Thielen, Jutta
In October 2007, the largest wildfire-related evacuation in California's history occurred as severe wildfires broke out across southern California. Smoke from these wildfires contributed to elevated pollutant concentrations in the atmosphere, affecting air quality in a vast region of the western United States. High-resolution numerical simulations were performed using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to understand the atmospheric conditions during the wildfire episode and how the complex circulation patterns might affect smoke transport and dispersion. The simulated meteorological fields were validated using surface and upper air observations in California and Nevada. To distinguish the performance of the WRF in different geographic regions, the surface stations were grouped into coastal sites, valley and basin sites, and mountain sites, and the results for the three categories were analyzed and intercompared. For temperature and moisture, the mountain category has the best agreement with the observations, while the coastal category was the worst. For wind, the model performance for the three categories was very similar. The flow patterns over complex terrain were also analyzed under different synoptic conditions and the possible impact of the terrain on smoke and pollutant pathways is analyzed by employing a Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model. When high mountains prevent the smoke from moving inland, the mountain passes act as active pathways for smoke transport; meanwhile, chimney effect helps inject the pollutants to higher levels, where they are transported regionally. The results highlight the role of complex topography in the assessment of the possible smoke transport patterns in the region.
Lu, W.; Zhong, S.; Charney, J. J.; Bian, X.; Liu, S.
This study implemented first, second and glaciation aerosol indirect effects (AIE) on resolved clouds in the two-way coupled Weather Research and Forecasting Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF-CMAQ) modeling system by including parameterizations for both cloud drop and ice number concentrations on the basis of CMAQ-predicted aerosol distributions and WRF meteorological conditions. The performance of the newly developed WRF-CMAQ model, with alternate Community Atmospheric Model (CAM) and Rapid Radiative Transfer Model for GCMs (RRTMG) radiation schemes, was evaluated with observations from the Clouds and the See http://ceres.larc.nasa.gov/. Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) satellite and surface monitoring networks (AQS, IMPROVE, CASTNET, STN, and PRISM) over the continental US (CONUS) (12 km resolution) and eastern Texas (4 km resolution) during August and September of 2006. The results at the Air Quality System (AQS) surface sites show that in August, the normalized mean bias (NMB) values for PM2.5 over the eastern US (EUS) and the western US (WUS) are 5.3% (-0.1%) and 0.4% (-5.2%) for WRF-CMAQ/CAM (WRF-CMAQ/RRTMG), respectively. The evaluation of PM2.5 chemical composition reveals that in August, WRF-CMAQ/CAM (WRF-CMAQ/RRTMG) consistently underestimated the observed SO42- by -23.0% (-27.7%), -12.5% (-18.9%) and -7.9% (-14.8%) over the EUS at the Clean Air Status Trends Network (CASTNET), Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) and Speciated Trends Network (STN) sites, respectively. Both configurations (WRF-CMAQ/CAM, WRF-CMAQ/RRTMG) overestimated the observed mean organic carbon (OC), elemental carbon (EC) and and total carbon (TC) concentrations over the EUS in August at the IMPROVE sites. Both configurations generally underestimated the cloud field (shortwave cloud forcing, SWCF) over the CONUS in August due to the fact that the AIE on the subgrid convective clouds was not considered when the model simulations were run at the 12 km resolution. This is in agreement with the fact that both configurations captured SWCF and longwave cloud forcing (LWCF) very well for the 4 km simulation over eastern Texas, when all clouds were resolved by the finer resolution domain. The simulations of WRF-CMAQ/CAM and WRF-CMAQ/RRTMG show dramatic improvements for SWCF, LWCF, cloud optical depth (COD), cloud fractions and precipitation over the ocean relative to those of WRF default cases in August. The model performance in September is similar to that in August, except for a greater overestimation of PM2.5 due to the overestimations of SO42-, NH4+, NO3-, and TC over the EUS, less underestimation of clouds (SWCF) over the land areas due to the lower SWCF values, and fewer convective clouds in September. This work shows that inclusion of indirect aerosol effect treatments in WRF-CMAQ represents a significant advancement and milestone in air quality modeling and the development of integrated emissions control strategies for air quality management and climate change mitigation.
Yu, S.; Mathur, R.; Pleim, J.; Wong, D.; Gilliam, R.; Alapaty, K.; Zhao, C.; Liu, X.
In this study, an attempt was made to simulate the air quality with reference to ozone over the Jackson (Mississippi) region using an online WRF/Chem (Weather Research and Forecasting–Chemistry) model. The WRF/Chem model has the advantages of the integration of the meteorological and chemistry modules with the same computational grid and same physical parameterizations and includes the feedback between the atmospheric chemistry and physical processes. The model was designed to have three nested domains with the inner-most domain covering the study region with a resolution of 1 km. The model was integrated for 48 hours continuously starting from 0000 UTC of 6 June 2006 and the evolution of surface ozone and other precursor pollutants were analyzed. The model simulated atmospheric flow fields and distributions of NO2 and O3 were evaluated for each of the three different time periods. The GIS based spatial distribution maps for ozone, its precursors NO, NO2, CO and HONO and the back trajectories indicate that all the mobile sources in Jackson, Ridgeland and Madison contributing significantly for their formation. The present study demonstrates the applicability of WRF/Chem model to generate quantitative information at high spatial and temporal resolution for the development of decision support systems for air quality regulatory agencies and health administrators. PMID:21776240
Yerramilli, Anjaneyulu; Dodla, Venkata B.; Desamsetti, Srinivas; Challa, Srinivas V.; Young, John H.; Patrick, Chuck; Baham, Julius M.; Hughes, Robert L.; Yerramilli, Sudha; Tuluri, Francis; Hardy, Mark G.; Swanier, Shelton J.
The exchange of energy and moisture between the Earth's surface and the atmospheric boundary layer plays a critical role in many hydrometeorological processes. Accurate and high-resolution representations of surface properties such as sea-surface temperature (SST), vegetation, soil temperature and moisture content, and ground fluxes are necessary to better understand the Earth-atmosphere interactions and improve numerical predictions of weather and climate phenomena. The NASA/NWS Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Center is currently investigating the potential benefits of assimilating high-resolution datasets derived from the NASA moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the Goddard Space Flight Center Land Information System (LIS). The LIS is a software framework that integrates satellite and ground-based observational and modeled data along with multiple land surface models (LSMs) and advanced computing tools to accurately characterize land surface states and fluxes. The LIS can be run uncoupled to provide a high-resolution land surface initial condition, and can also be run in a coupled mode with WRF to integrate surface and soil quantities using any of the LSMs available in LIS. The LIS also includes the ability to optimize the initialization of surface and soil variables by tuning the spin-up time period and atmospheric forcing parameters, which cannot be done in the standard WRF. Among the datasets available from MODIS, a leaf-area index field and composite SST analysis are used to improve the lower boundary and initial conditions to the LIS/WRF coupled model over both land and water. Experiments will be conducted to measure the potential benefits from using the coupled LIS/WRF model over the Florida peninsula during May 2004. This month experienced relatively benign weather conditions, which will allow the experiments to focus on the local and mesoscale impacts of the high-resolution MODIS datasets and optimized soil and surface initial conditions. Follow-on experiments will examine the utility of such an optimized WRF configuration for more complex weather scenarios such as convective initiation. This paper will provide an overview of the experiment design and present preliminary results from selected cases in May 2004.
Case, Jonathan L.; LaCasse, Katherine M.; Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.; Lapenta, William M.; Petars-Lidard, Christa D.
Forecasting the pollution caused by wildland fires has acquired high importance. Wildland fire emissions are represented particularly poorly in air quality models, to improve the simulation of the impact of fires on air quality; a wildland fire model can be coupled into a meteorological model (WRF-Fire). In this work, WRF-Fire/Chem has been applied and evaluated with collected data from a wildland fire in the Murcia region (Spain). WRF-Fire was employed to simulate spread and behavior of the real fire. A method for predicting the fuel moisture content is needed to support fire behavior prediction systems. A new fuel moisture content model has been developed. The new module allows each time step to calculate the fuel moisture content of the dead fuels (1hr, 10hr, and 100hr) and live fuels. Custom fuel moisture content, designed and developed for the Iberian Peninsula, provided realistic values of simulated fires. To create a database for "fuel category" data, Corine Land Cover 2006, 100 meters resolution, dataset have been "translated" to 13 different fuel models, following Anderson (1982). The results confirm that the use of accurate meteorological data and a customize fuel moisture content model is crucial to obtain accurate simulations of fire behavior. Fire emissions are input into WRF-Fire/Chem as chemical species. The amount of the chemical species created is determined from the amount of fuel burned, simulated by the fire model. The emissions are computed at the fire resolution and the averaged to the atmospheric resolution. The chemical transport in WRF-Chem provides a forecast of the pollution spread. The first meteorological domain is covering the area of Iberian Peninsula with a resolution of 15 Km. This domain is producing boundary and initial meteorological conditions for the inner domains. The inner domains are located in the center of the ignition point, with a resolution of 3 Km, 1Km and 200 meters. Fire grid resolution is 20 meters. Results are compared with the perimeter burned by a real fire in Murcia (Spain).
San Jose, Roberto; Perez, Juan L.; Gonzalez-Barras, Rosa M.
During the past 10 years ensemble forecasting has established itself as an important component in numerical weather prediction. Global ensemble prediction systems have been operational at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and at the National Meteorological Center for Environmental Prediction (NOAA/NWS/NCEP) since December 1992, and at the Meterological Service of Canada (MSC/CMC) since February 1998. In this talk, the similarities and differences among the three operational global ensemble forecast systems are discussed. The performance of the three systems is illustrated and compared over a three month period (May-July) in 2002. Also reviewed are open issues, ongoing research projects, and future directions related to ensemble forecasting efforts at the three centers.
Toth, Z.; Buizza, R.; Houtekamer, P.
Development and testing of Polar Weather Research and Forecasting model: 2. Arctic Ocean David H over the Arctic Ocean with a western Arctic grid using 25-km resolution. The model is based upon WRF tool for studies of Arctic Ocean meteorology. Citation: Bromwich, D. H., K. M. Hines, and L.-S. Bai
Howat, Ian M.
In this work we present the results of an experiment aiming to measure and model atmospheric delay by means of GPS, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (InSAR). Examples of maps of the atmospheric delay over the region of Lisbon are shown.
Mateus, P.; Nico, G.; Tomé, R.; Catalão, J.; Miranda, P.
In data sparse regions, remotely-sensed observations can be used to improve analyses, which in turn should lead to better forecasts. One such source comes from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), which together with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), provides temperature and moisture profiles with an accuracy comparable to that of radiosondes. The purpose of this paper is to describe a procedure to optimally assimilate AIRS thermodynamic profiles--obtained from the version 5.0 Earth Observing System (EOS) science team retrieval algorithm-into a regional configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using WRF-Var. The paper focuses on development of background error covariances for the regional domain and background field type, a methodology for ingesting AIRS profiles as separate over-land and over-water retrievals with different error characteristics, and utilization of level-by-level quality indicators to select only the highest quality data. The assessment of the impact of the AIRS profiles on WRF-Var analyses will focus on intelligent use of the quality indicators, optimized tuning of the WRF-Var, and comparison of analysis soundings to radiosondes. The analyses will be used to conduct a month-long series of regional forecasts over the continental U.S. The long-tern1 impact of AIRS profiles on forecast will be assessed against verifying radiosonde and stage IV precipitation data.
Chou, Shih-Hung; Zavodsky, Bradley; Jedlovec, Gary
Climate varies across a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Yet, climate modeling has long been approached using global models that can resolve only the broader scales of atmospheric processes and their interactions with land, ocean, and sea ice. Clearly, large-scale climate determines the environment for mesoscale and microscale processes that govern the weather and local climate, but, likewise, processes that occur at the regional scale may have significant impacts on the large scale circulation. Resolving such scale interactions will lead to much improved understanding of how climate both influences, and is influenced by, human activities. Since October 2003, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has supported an effort through the Opportunity Fund to develop regional climate modeling capability using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (http://www.wrf-model.org/index.php) and the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) (http://www.ccsm.ucar.edu/models), with participations by members of both the Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology and Climate and Global Dynamics Divisions. The goal is to develop a next generation community Regional Climate Model (RCM) that can address both downscaling and upscaling issues in climate modeling. Downscaling is the process of deriving regional climate information based on large-scale climate conditions. Both dynamical and statistical downscaling methods have been used to produce regional climate change scenarios; however, their resolution and physical fidelity are considered inadequate. Hence, the global change community has expressed a strong demand for improved regional climate information to explore the implications of adaptation and mitigation and assess climate change impacts (http://www.climatescience.gov/events/workshop2002/). Upscaling encapsulates the aggregate effects of small-scale physical and dynamical processes on the large-scale climate. One form of upscaling is the use of physical parameterizations such as that for deep convection. These are also considered to be inadequate, as much of the uncertainty in model sensitivity to greenhouse gases is now known to be associated with cloud parameterizations. Another form of upscaling is to explicitly include the effects of regional processes on the large-scale environment, both locally and remotely. Since their inception in the late 1980s, RCMs have been used predominantly to address downscaling issues through one-way coupling with global analyses or climate models. As part of the NCAR project, WRF has been adapted for simulating regional climate. Seasonal simulations over the U.S. have shown realistic features including the low-level jet and diurnal cycle of rainfall in the Central U.S. (Leung et al. 2005), and orographic precipitation in the western U.S. (Done et al. 2005). A WRF Regional Climate Modeling Working Group has been established to coordinate RCM research activities. To help define the next steps, a workshop on “Research Needs and Directions of Regional Climate Modeling Using WRF and CCSM” was organized to engage the regional and global climate modeling communities to: (1) define research needs for the development of a next generation community RCM based on WRF and CCSM; (2) define upscaling and downscaling research that can be addressed by RCMs; and (3) develop a plan of actions that would meet the research needs. This article summarizes the research issues and recommendations discussed at the workshop. There is no implied order in the research priorities listed below. Workshop agenda and presentations can be found at http://box.mmm.ucar.edu/events/rcm05/.
Leung, Lai R.; Kuo, Y.-H.; Tribbia, J.
The literature for the broad subject area of seasonal snowmelt runoff volume forecasting was examined to determine what methods of forecasting show the most provise for providing data for improving reservoir operations. The forecasting approaches can be c...
S. J. Burges, K. Hoshi
Flood forecasting specialists and operational water managers require ready access to a wide range of information including both current and forecasted meteorological conditions, and current and forecasted hydrological conditions to make decisions to initiate flood response measures or to issue flood warnings. Effective flood forecasting systems must provide reliable, accurate and timely forecasts for a range of catchments; from small
M. B. Butts; A. Klinting; M. Ivan; J. K. Larsen; J. Hartnack; J. Brandt
This module addresses issues surrounding the direct and indirect impacts of restricted ceilings and visibilities on aviation operations and also briefly examines their impacts on ground and marine transportation. The goal is improve forecaster awareness of how their forecasts of these events affect commercial and general aviation operation. This module is part of the Distance Learning Course 1: Forecasting Fog and Low Stratus.
This website, supplied by Annenberg / CPB, discusses weather satellites, Doppler radar, and additional tools forecasters use to predict the weather. Students can find a wind chill calculator along with a brief discussion of the history of forecasting and weather lore. Once you have a firm grasp on the science of weather forecasting, be sure to check out the other sections of this site, which include: "ice and snow," "our changing climate," "the water cycle," and "powerful storms."
The objective of the study is to evaluate operational mesoscale meteorological model atmospheric boundary-layer (ABL) outputs for use in the Hazard Prediction Assessment Capability (HPAC)/Second-Order Closure Integrated Puff (SCIPUFF) transport and dispersion model. HPAC uses the meteorological models’ routine simulations of surface buoyancy flux, winds, and mixing depth to derive the profiles of ABL turbulence. The Fifth-Generation Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) and the Weather Research and Forecast-Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (WRF-NMM) ABL outputs and the HPAC ABL parameterisations are compared with observations during the International H2O Project (IHOP). The meteorological models’ configurations are not specially designed research versions for this study but rather are intended to be representative of what may be used operationally and thus have relatively coarse lowest vertical layer thicknesses of 59 and 36 m, respectively. The meteorological models’ simulations of mixing depth are in good agreement (±20%) with observations on most afternoons. Wind speed errors of 1 or 2 ms-1 are found, typical of those found in other studies, with larger errors occurring when the simulated centre of a low-pressure system is misplaced in time or space. The hourly variation of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) is well-simulated during the daytime, although there is a meteorological model underprediction bias of about 20-40%. At night, WRF-NMM shows fair agreement with observations, and MM5 sometimes produces a very small default TKE value because of the stable boundary-layer parameterisation that is used. The HPAC TKE parameterisation is usually a factor of 5-10 high at night, primarily due to the fact that the meteorological model wind-speed output is at a height of 30 m for MM5 and 18 m for WRF-NMM, which is often well above the stable mixing depth. It is concluded that, before meteorological model TKE fields can be confidently used by HPAC, it would help to improve vertical resolution near the surface, say to 10 m or less, and it would be good to improve the ABL parameterisations for shallow stable conditions.
Hanna, Steven R.; Reen, Brian; Hendrick, Elizabeth; Santos, Lynne; Stauffer, David; Deng, Aijun; McQueen, Jeffrey; Tsidulko, Marina; Janjic, Zavisa; Jovic, Dusan; Sykes, R. Ian
This module provides an introduction to ensemble forecast systems with an operational case study of Hurricane Sandy. The module concentrates on models from NCEP and FNMOC available to forecasters in the U.S. Navy, including NAEFS (North American Ensemble Forecast System), and NUOPC (National Unified Operational Prediction Capability). Probabilistic forecasts of winds and waves developed from these ensemble forecast systems are applied to a ship transit and coastal resource protection. Lessons integrated in the case study provide information on ensemble statistics, products, bias correction and verification. Additional lessons address multimodel ensembles, extreme events, and automated forecasting.
A total lightning data assimilation method was proposed and applied in a mesoscale convective system (MCS) simulation with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. On the bases of analyses of several thunderstorm processes over northern China, empirical formulas between total lightning flash rate and ice-phase particle (graupel, ice, and snow) mixing ratio were constructed based on the well-known relationship between the occurrence of lightning activity and the content of ice-phase particles. The constructed nudging functions were added into the WSM6 microphysical scheme of WRF to adjust the mixing ratio of ice-phase particles within a temperature layer from 0 °C to - 20 °C isotherms, and consequently the convective precipitation. The method was examined in a MCS with high lightning flash rate and heavy precipitation occurred over two megacities of Beijing and Tianjin, northern China. The representation of convection was significantly improved 1 h after the lightning data assimilation, and even during the assimilation period. The precipitation center, amount and coverage were all much closer to the observation in the sensitivity run with lightning data assimilation than in the control run without lightning data assimilation. The results showed promising improvements on the convection and precipitation and demonstrated rationality and effectiveness of the proposed assimilation technique. The results also showed that active lightning regions have a strong capability of adjusting convection and precipitation, suggesting that the assimilation method can be used for improving the short-term precipitation forecasting of MCS with high, even moderate lightning flash rate.
Qie, Xiushu; Zhu, Runpeng; Yuan, Tie; Wu, Xueke; Li, Wanli; Liu, Dongxia
A low level coastal jet (LLCJ) is a low-troposphereic wind feature driven by the pressure gradient produced by a sharp contrast between high temperatures over land and lower temperatures over sea. This feature has been identified and studied in several areas of the world, where such a land-sea temperature contrast exist: off the coast of Somalia, near Lima, Peru, off the Mediterranean coast of Spain, in the Southwest coast of Africa, or in the South China Sea coast. Nevertheless, the California LLCJ is probably the most studied coastal jet in the world, with several studies available in the literature. Coastal jets have a notorious impact on coastal areas. Climatologically they are associated with coastal upwelling processes. The major coastal fishing grounds in the world are usually in areas of upwelling, and the abundance of fish at the surface is supported by the upwelled nutrient-rich waters from deeper levels. The effect of this upwelled water to the fishing industry and to the habitat of an enormous diversity of marine life is of paramount importance, and has led to numerous studies in this field. Littoral areas are usually densely populated, and often airports are built in areas where a LLCJ may occur. Thus, aviation operations are deeply influenced by this weather feature, which has a significant impact on the takeoff and landing of airplanes. Therefore the forecasting of LLCJ features is very important for several reasons.The forecasting skills of mesoscale models, while challenging in any region, become particularly complex near coastlines, where processes associated with the coastal boundary add additional complexity: interaction of the flow with the coastal orography, sharp sea-land temperature gradients, highly baroclinic environment, complex air-sea exchanging processes, etc. The purpose of this study is to assess the forecasting skills of the limited-area models WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) and COAMPS® (Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System) in resolving the California LLCJ, off the Big Sur coast. Model runs with different resolutions (6Km and 2Km) are verified against vertical profiles of wind speed and direction, and temperature, from radiosondes. The radiosondes profiles used here were collected during a scientific cruise, off the coast of California, on board the research vessel Point Sur, from 4 to 7 August, 2004. The data were collected along and perpendicular to the coast of Big Sur, south of Point Sur, where an area of supercritical flow adjustment took place.
Tomé, Ricardo; Semedo, Alvaro; Ranjha, Raza; Tjernström, Michael; Svensson, Gunilla
This is the third and final part in a training series on rip currents. The topic of forecasting daily rip current risk can be explored by operational forecasters, many of whom do not have a physical oceanography background. The hazards of rip currents and a review of the factors that contribute to rip current development are discussed. To demonstrate the process of a rip current forecast and as an example of what can locally be developed at the users station, the module presents a rip current worksheet that is used operationally at some forecast offices. Various parts of this worksheet require the use of observed data and model output. These resources range from NOS Detailed Wave Summary reports to NOAA WAVEWATCH III model polar plots of wave spectral energy. The usage of these products in terms of rip current forecasting using the worksheet is explained in detail. In particular, the issue of wave masking in the 2-D model plots is illustrated. In order to practice with the products presented, the user is provided two cases (East and West Coasts). Other factors discussed include tide and lake levels as well as situational awareness. Lastly, a summary of important points from the module and experienced forecast offices is provided. Users are encouraged to examine the state of their officeÂs rip current program and develop a plan for improvement based on concepts and ideas presented in this module.
This is the third and final part in a training series on rip currents. The topic of forecasting daily rip current risk can be explored by operational forecasters, many of whom do not have a physical oceanography background. The hazards of rip currents and a review of the factors that contribute to rip current development are discussed. To demonstrate the process of a rip current forecast and as an example of what can locally be developed at the userâs station, the module presents a rip current worksheet that is used operationally at some forecast offices. Various parts of this worksheet require the use of observed data and model output. These resources range from NOS Detailed Wave Summary reports to NOAA WAVEWATCH III model polar plots of wave spectral energy. The usage of these products in terms of rip current forecasting using the worksheet is explained in detail. In particular, the issue of âwave maskingâ in the 2-D model plots is illustrated. In order to practice with the products presented, the user is provided two cases (East and West Coasts). Other factors discussed include tide and lake levels as well as situational awareness. Lastly, a summary of important points from the module and experienced forecast offices is provided. Users are encouraged to examine the state of their officeâs rip current program and develop a plan for improvement based on concepts and ideas presented in this module.
For expedience in delivering dispersion guidance in the diversity of operational situations, National Weather Service Melbourne (MLB) and Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) are becoming increasingly reliant on the PC-based version of the HYSPLIT model run through a graphical user interface (GUI). While the GUI offers unique advantages when compared to traditional methods, it is difficult for forecasters to run and manage in an operational environment. To alleviate the difficulty in providing scheduled real-time trajectory and concentration guidance, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) configured a Linux version of the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) (HYSPLIT) model that ingests the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) guidance, such as the North American Mesoscale (NAM) and the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) models. The AMU configured the HYSPLIT system to automatically download the NCEP model products, convert the meteorological grids into HYSPLIT binary format, run the model from several pre-selected latitude/longitude sites, and post-process the data to create output graphics. In addition, the AMU configured several software programs to convert local Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model output into HYSPLIT format.
Dreher, Joseph G.
In this study we investigated the problems involved in assimilating surface pressure in the current global and regional assimilation and prediction system, GRAPES. A new scheme of assimilating surface pressure was proposed, including a new interpolation scheme and a refreshed background covariance. The new scheme takes account of the differences between station elevation and model topography, and it especially deals with stations located at elevations below that of the first model level. Contrast experiments were conducted using both the original and the new assimilation schemes. The influence of the new interpolation scheme and the updated background covariance were investigated. Our results show that the new interpolation scheme utilized more observations and improved the quality of the mass analysis. The background covariance was refreshed using statistics resulting from the technique proposed by Parrish and Derber in 1992. Experiments show that the updated vertical covariance may have a positive influence on the analysis at higher levels of the atmosphere when assimilating surface pressure. This influence may be more significant if the quality of the background field at high levels is poor. A series of assimilation experiments were performed to test the validity of the new scheme. The corresponding simulation experiments were conducted using the analysis of both schemes as initial conditions. The results indicated that the new scheme leads to better forecasting of sea level pressure and precipitation in South China, especially the forecast of moderate and heavy rain.
Huang, Yanyan; Xue, Jishan; Wan, Qilin; Chen, Zitong; Ding, Weiyu; Zhang, Chengzhong
Numerical weather prediction models as well as the atmosphere itself can be viewed as nonlinear dynamical systems in which the evolution depends sensitively on the initial conditions. The fact that estimates of the current state are inaccurate and that numerical models have inadequacies, leads to forecast errors that grow with increasing forecast lead time. The growth of errors depends on
M. Leutbecher; T. N. Palmer
This activity (on page 2 of the PDF) is a full inquiry investigation into meteorology and forecasting. Learners will research weather folklore, specifically looking for old-fashioned ways of predicting the weather. Then, they'll record observations of these predictors along with readings from their own homemade barometer, graphing the correct predictions for analysis. Relates to linked video, DragonflyTV: Forecasting.
Twin Cities Public Television, Inc.
A suite of physical parameterizations (deep and shallow convection, turbulent boundary layer, aerosols, cloud microphysics, and cloud fraction) from the global climate model Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1 (CAM5) has been implemented in the regional model Weather Research and Forecasting with chemistry (WRF-Chem). A downscaling modeling framework with consistent physics has also been established in which both global and regional simulations use the same emissions and surface fluxes. The WRF-Chem model with the CAM5 physics suite is run at multiple horizontal resolutions over a domain encompassing the northern Pacific Ocean, northeast Asia, and northwest North America for April 2008 when the ARCTAS, ARCPAC, and ISDAC field campaigns took place. These simulations are evaluated against field campaign measurements, satellite retrievals, and ground-based observations, and are compared with simulations that use a set of common WRF-Chem parameterizations. This manuscript describes the implementation of the CAM5 physics suite in WRF-Chem, provides an overview of the modeling framework and an initial evaluation of the simulated meteorology, clouds, and aerosols, and quantifies the resolution dependence of the cloud and aerosol parameterizations. We demonstrate that some of the CAM5 biases, such as high estimates of cloud susceptibility to aerosols and the underestimation of aerosol concentrations in the Arctic, can be reduced simply by increasing horizontal resolution. We also show that the CAM5 physics suite performs similarly to a set of parameterizations commonly used in WRF-Chem, but produces higher ice and liquid water condensate amounts and near-surface black carbon concentration. Further evaluations that use other mesoscale model parameterizations and perform other case studies are needed to infer whether one parameterization consistently produces results more consistent with observations.
Ma, P.-L.; Rasch, P. J.; Fast, J. D.; Easter, R. C.; Gustafson, W. I., Jr.; Liu, X.; Ghan, S. J.; Singh, B.
Modeling of extreme weather events often require very finely resolved treatment of atmospheric circulation structures in order to produce and localize large magnitudes of moisture fluxes that result in extreme precipitation. This is particularly true for cool season orographic precipitation processes where the representation of landform can significantly influence vertical velocity profiles and cloud moisture entrainment rates. In this work we report on recent progress in high resolution regional climate modeling of the Colorado Headwaters region using an updated version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and a hydrological extension package called WRF-Hydro. Previous work has shown that the WRF-Hydro modeling system forced by high resolution WRF model output can produce credible depictions of winter orographic precipitation and resultant monthly and annual river flows. Here we present results from a detailed study of an extreme springtime snowfall event that occurred along the Colorado Front Range in March of 2003. First an analysis of the simulated streamflows resulting from the melt out of that event are presented followed by an analysis of projected streamflows from the event where the atmospheric forcing in the WRF model is perturbed using the Psuedo-Global-Warming (PGW) perturbation methodology. Results from the impact of warming on total precipitation, snow-rain partitioning and surface hydrological fluxes (evapotranspiration and runoff) will be discussed in the context of how potential changes in temperature impact the amount of precipitation, the phase of precipitation (rain vs. snow) and the timing and amplitude of streamflow responses. It is shown that under the assumptions of the PGW method, intense precipitation rates increase during the event and, more importantly, that more precipitation falls as rain versus snow which significantly amplifies the runoff response from one where runoff is produced gradually to where runoff is more rapidly translated into streamflow values that approach significant flooding risks.
gochis, David; rasmussen, Roy; Yu, Wei; Ikeda, Kyoko
This abstract describes work that will be done by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) in assessing the success of different model configurations in predicting "wind cycling" cases at Edwards Air Force Base, CA (EAFB), in which the wind speeds and directions oscillate among towers near the EAFB runway. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model allows users to choose among two dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). There are also data assimilation analysis packages available for the initialization of the WRF model - the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS). Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many options within each core, creates challenges for local forecasters, such as determining which configuration options are best to address specific forecast concerns. The goal of this project is to assess the different configurations available and determine which configuration will best predict surface wind speed and direction at EAFB.
Watson, Leela R.; Bauman, William H., III; Hoeth, Brian
NASA funded Mesoscale Environmental Simulations and Operations (MESO), Inc. to develop a version of the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS). The model has been modified specifically for short-range forecasting in the vicinity of KSC/CCAS. To accomplish this, the model domain has been limited to increase the number of horizontal grid points (and therefore grid resolution) and the model' s treatment of precipitation, radiation, and surface hydrology physics has been enhanced to predict convection forced by local variations in surface heat, moisture fluxes, and cloud shading. The objective of this paper is to (1) provide an overview of MASS including the real-time initialization and configuration for running the data pre-processor and model, and (2) to summarize the preliminary evaluation of the model's forecasts of temperature, moisture, and wind at selected rawinsonde station locations during February 1994 and July 1994. MASS is a hydrostatic, three-dimensional modeling system which includes schemes to represent planetary boundary layer processes, surface energy and moisture budgets, free atmospheric long and short wave radiation, cloud microphysics, and sub-grid scale moist convection.
Taylor, Gregory E.; Zack, John W.; Manobianco, John
For the accurate and effective forecasting of a cyclone, it is critical to have accurate initial structure of the cyclone in numerical models. In this study, Kolkata Doppler weather radar (DWR) data were assimilated for the numerical simulation of a land-falling Tropical Cyclone Aila (2009) in the Bay of Bengal. To study the impact of radar data on very short-range forecasting of a cyclone's path, intensity and precipitation, both reflectivity and radial velocity were assimilated into the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model through the ARPS data assimilation system (ADAS) and cloud analysis procedure. Numerical experiment results indicated that radar data assimilation significantly improved the simulated structure of Cyclone Aila. Strong influences on hydrometeor structures of the initial vortex and precipitation pattern were observed when radar reflectivity data was assimilated, but a relatively small impact was observed on the wind fields at all height levels. The assimilation of radar wind data significantly improved the prediction of divergence/convergence conditions over the cyclone's inner-core area, as well as its wind field in the low-to-middle troposphere (600-900 hPa), but relatively less impact was observed on analyzed moisture field. Maximum surface wind speed produced from DWR-Vr and DWR-ZVr data assimilation experiments were very close to real-time values. The impact of radar data, after final analysis, on minimum sea level pressure was relatively less because the ADAS system does not adjust for pressure due to the lack of pressure observations, and from not using a 3DVAR balance condition that includes pressure. The greatest impact of radar data on forecasting was realized when both reflectivity and wind data (DWR-ZVr and DWR-ZVr00 experiment) were assimilated. It is concluded that after final analysis, the center of the cyclone was relocated very close to the observed position, and simulated cyclone maintained its intensity for a longer duration. Using this analysis, different stages of the cyclone are better captured, and cyclone structure, intensification, direction of movement, speed and location are significantly improved when both radar reflectivity and wind data are assimilated. As compared to other experiments, the maximum reduction in track error was noticed in the DWR-ZVr and DWR-ZVr00 experiments, and the predicted track in these experiments was very close to the observed track. In the DWR-ZVr and DWR-ZVr00 experiments, rainfall pattern and amount of rainfall forecasts were remarkably improved and were similar to the observation over West Bengal, Orissa and Jharkhand; however, the rainfall over Meghalaya and Bangladesh was missed in all the experiments. The influence of radar data reduces beyond a 12-h forecast, due to the dominance of the flow from large-scale, global forecast system models. This study also demonstrates successful coupling of the data assimilation package ADAS with the WRF model for Indian DWR data.
Srivastava, Kuldeep; Bhardwaj, Rashmi
Proposals for 'inflation targeting' as a strategy for monetary policy leave open the important operational question of how to determine whether current policies are consistent with the long-run inflation target. An interesting possibility is that the central bank might target current private-sector forecasts of inflation, either those made explicitly by professional forecasters or those implicit in asset prices. We address
Benjamin S. Bernanke; Michael Woodford
An improved bulk microphysical parameterization is implemented into the Weather Research and Forecasting ()VRF) model. This bulk microphysical scheme has three different options, 2ICE (cloud ice & snow), 3ICE-graupel (cloud ice, snow & graupel) and 3ICE-hail (cloud ice, snow & hail). High-resolution model simulations are conducted to examine the impact of microphysical schemes on two different weather events (a midlatitude linear convective system and an Atlantic hurricane). The results suggest that microphysics has a major impact on the organization and precipitation processes associated with a summer midlatitude convective line system. The Goddard 3ICE scheme with a cloud ice-snow-hail configuration agreed better with observations in terms of rainfall intensity and a narrow convective line than did simulations with a cloud ice-snow-graupel or cloud ice-snow (i.e., 2ICE) configuration. This is because the 3ICE-hail scheme includes dense ice precipitating (hail) particle with very fast fall speed (over 10 in For an Atlantic hurricane case, the Goddard microphysical schemes had no significant impact on the track forecast but did affect the intensity slightly. The improved Goddard schemes are also compared with WRF's three other 3ICE bulk microphysical schemes: WSM6, Purdue-Lin and Thompson. For the summer midlatitude convective line system, all of the schemes resulted in simulated precipitation events that were elongated in the southwest-northeast direction in qualitative agreement with the observed feature. However, the Goddard 3ICE scheme with the hail option and the Thompson scheme agree better with observations in terms of rainfall intensity, expect that the Goddard scheme simulated more heavy rainfall (over 48 mm/h). For the Atlantic hurricane case, none of the schemes had a significant impact on the track forecast; however, the simulated intensity using the Purdue-Lin scheme was much stronger than the other schemes. The vertical distributions of model simulated cloud species (i.e., snow) are quite sensitive to microphysical schemes, which is an important issue for future verification against satellite retrievals. Both the Purdue-Lin and WSM6 schemes simulated very little snow compared to the other schemes for both the midlatitude convective line and hurricane cases. Sensitivity tests are performed for these two WRF schemes to identify that snow productions could be increased by increasing the snow intercept, turning off the auto-conversion from snow to graupel and reducing the transfer processes from cloud-sized particles to precipitation-sized ice.
A Goddard bulk microphysical parameterization is implemented into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. This bulk microphysical scheme has three different options, 2ICE (cloud ice & snow), 3ICE-graupel (cloud ice, snow & graupel) and 3ICE-hail (cloud ice, snow & hail). High-resolution model simulations are conducted to examine the impact of microphysical schemes on different weather events: a midlatitude linear convective system and an Atlantic hurricane. The results suggest that microphysics has a major impact on the organization and precipitation processes associated with a summer midlatitude convective line system. The Goddard 3ICE scheme with the cloud ice-snow-hail configuration agreed better with observations ill of rainfall intensity and having a narrow convective line than did simulations with the cloud ice-snow-graupel and cloud ice-snow (i.e., 2ICE) configurations. This is because the Goddard 3ICE-hail configuration has denser precipitating ice particles (hail) with very fast fall speeds (over 10 m/s) For an Atlantic hurricane case, the Goddard microphysical scheme (with 3ICE-hail, 3ICE-graupel and 2ICE configurations) had no significant impact on the track forecast but did affect the intensity slightly. The Goddard scheme is also compared with WRF's three other 3ICE bulk microphysical schemes: WSM6, Purdue-Lin and Thompson. For the summer midlatitude convective line system, all of the schemes resulted in simulated precipitation events that were elongated in southwest-northeast direction in qualitative agreement with the observed feature. However, the Goddard 3ICE-hail and Thompson schemes were closest to the observed rainfall intensities although the Goddard scheme simulated more heavy rainfall (over 48 mm/h). For the Atlantic hurricane case, none of the schemes had a significant impact on the track forecast; however, the simulated intensity using the Purdue-Lin scheme was much stronger than the other schemes. The vertical distributions of model-simulated cloud species (e.g., snow) are quite sensitive to the microphysical schemes, which is an issue for future verification against satellite retrievals. Both the Purdue-Lin and WSM6 schemes simulated very little snow compared to the other schemes for both the midlatitude convective line and hurricane case. Sensitivity tests with these two schemes showed that increasing the snow intercept, turning off the auto-conversion from snow to graupel, eliminating dry growth, and reducing the transfer processes from cloud-sized particles to precipitation-sized ice collectively resulted in a net increase in those schemes' snow amounts.
Tao, W.K.; Shi, J.J.; Braun, S.; Simpson, J.; Chen, S.S.; Lang, S.; Hong, S.Y.; Thompson, G.; Peters-Lidard, C.
Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is one of the main driving parameters for hurricane formation, intensification and track forecast. In the case of hurricane Katrina, SST has been found to be above the average, and such anomaly is partially responsible for the hurricane's rapid intensi- fication. Using high resolution satellite based SST observations, it is possible to initialize the mesoscale model and simulate the rapid intensification of hurricane Katrina. However, due to the thick cloud coverage and rapidly changing atmospheric conditions, SST data is incomplete and potentially overor under-estimated. The goal of the present research is to study the effect of SST variations on the hurricane's track and intensity. Using the WRF mesoscale model, we have performed a series of baseline runs using different satellite and model based SST products. We have then performed simulations using SST where temperature values have been artificially increased or decreased over the entire domain. Finally we have employed a machine learning search technique, to modify only selected areas of the domain, especially around the eye of the hurricane and along its path. Results show that SST plays a critical role in the hurricane's forecast.
Cervone, Guido; Ouzounov, Dimitar; Franzese, Pasquale; Pulinets, Sergey
Weather Forecasting is a set of computer-based learning modules that teach students about meteorology from the point of view of learning how to forecast the weather. The modules were designed as the primary teaching resource for a seminar course on weather forecasting at the introductory college level (originally METR 151, later ATMO 151) and can also be used in the laboratory component of an introductory atmospheric science course. The modules assume no prior meteorological knowledge. In addition to text and graphics, the modules include interactive questions and answers designed to reinforce student learning. The module topics are: 1. How to Access Weather Data, 2. How to Read Hourly Weather Observations, 3. The National Collegiate Weather Forecasting Contest, 4. Radiation and the Diurnal Heating Cycle, 5. Factors Affecting Temperature: Clouds and Moisture, 6. Factors Affecting Temperature: Wind and Mixing, 7. Air Masses and Fronts, 8. Forces in the Atmosphere, 9. Air Pressure, Temperature, and Height, 10. Winds and Pressure, 11. The Forecasting Process, 12. Sounding Diagrams, 13. Upper Air Maps, 14. Satellite Imagery, 15. Radar Imagery, 16. Numerical Weather Prediction, 17. NWS Forecast Models, 18. Sources of Model Error, 19. Sea Breezes, Land Breezes, and Coastal Fronts, 20. Soundings, Clouds, and Convection, 21. Snow Forecasting.
Climate change causes altering distributions of meteorological factors influencing plant growth and its interactions between the land surface and the atmosphere. Recent studies show, that uncertainties in regional and global climate simulations are also caused by lacking descriptions of the soil-plant-atmosphere system. Therefore, we couple a mechanistic soil-plant model to a regional climate and forecast model. The detailed simulation of the water and energy exchanges, especially the transpiration of grassland and forests stands, are the key features of the modelling framework. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) (Skamarock 2008) is an open source mesoscale numerical weather prediction model. The WRF model was modified in a way, to either choose its native, static land surface model NOAH or the mechanistic eco-system model Expert-N 5.0 individually for every single grid point within the simulation domain. The Expert-N 5.0 modelling framework provides a highly modular structure, enabling the development and use of a large variety of different plant and soil models, including heat transfer, nitrogen uptake/turnover/transport as well as water uptake/transport and crop management. To represent the key landuse types grassland and forest, we selected two mechanistic plant models: The Hurley Pasture model (Thornley 1998) and a modified TREEDYN3 forest simulation model (Bossel 1996). The models simulate plant growth, water, nitrogen and carbon flows for grassland and forest stands. A mosaic approach enables Expert-N to use high resolution land use data e.g. CORINE Land Cover data (CLC, 2006) for the simulation, making it possible to simulate different land use distributions within a single grid cell. The coupling results are analyzed for plausibility and compared with the results of the default land surface model NOAH (Fei Chen and Jimy Dudhia 2010). We show differences between the mechanistic and the static model coupling, with focus on the feedback effects of evapotranspiration, heat flow and radiation of thermodynamic values. Bossel, H. 1996. "TREEDYN3 forest simulation model." Ecological modelling 90 (3): 187-227. CLC, 2006. CORINE Land Cover 2006. http://www.eea.europa.eu/themes/landuse/interactive/clc-download. Accessed 16.12.2012. Fei Chen, and Jimy Dudhia. 2010. Coupling an Advanced Land Surface-Hydrology Model with the Penn State-NCAR MM5 Modeling System. Part II: Preliminary Model Validation. Research-article. February 25. Skamarock, W. C. 2008. "Coauthors 2008: A description of the Advanced Research WRF version 3." NCAR Tech. Note NCAR/TN-475+ STR. http://www.wrf-model.org/. Thornley, John. 1998. Grassland dynamics: an ecosystem simulation model. Wallingford,New York: CAB international.
Klein, C.; Hoffmann, P.; Priesack, E.
Created by Fred Collopy, Weatherhead School of Management, Case Western Reserve University, this site provides access to current research in business forecasting. The most up-to-date information is maintained in the News section, complete with links to up-coming conferences, competitions, and publications. Annotated links to major business forecasting associations, datasets, and software providers are also provided, in addition to a bibliography of print materials and M-Competition Data--time series from three forecasting competitions available for download on site.
ROFFS stands for Roffer's Ocean Fishing Forecasting Service, Inc. Roffer combines satellite and computer technology with oceanographic information from several sources to produce frequently updated charts sometimes as often as 30 times a day showing clues to the location of marlin, sailfish, tuna, swordfish and a variety of other types. Also provides customized forecasts for racing boats and the shipping industry along with seasonal forecasts that allow the marine industry to formulate fishing strategies based on foreknowledge of the arrival and departure times of different fish. Roffs service exemplifies the potential for benefits to marine industries from satellite observations. Most notable results are reduced search time and substantial fuel savings.
Under the support of the DOE award DE-SC0004670, we have successfully developed an integrated climate modeling system by nesting Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model within the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and the ensuing new generation Community Earth System Model (CESM). The integrated WRF/CESM system is intended as one method of global climate modeling with regional simulation capabilities. It allows interactive dynamical regional downscaling in the computational flow of present or future global climate simulations. This capability substantially simplifies the process of dynamical downscaling by avoiding massive intermediate model outputs at high frequency that are typically required for offline regional downscaling. The inline coupling also has the advantage of higher temporal resolution for the interaction between regional and global model components. With the aid of the inline coupling, a capability has also been developed to ingest other global climate simulations (by CESM or other models), which otherwise may not have necessary intermediate outputs for regional downscaling, to realize their embedded regional details. It is accomplished by relaxing the global atmospheric state of the integrated model to that of the source simulations with an appropriate time scale. This capability has the potential to open a new venue for ensemble regional climate simulations using a single modeling system. Furthermore, this new modeling system provides an effective modeling framework for the studies of physical and dynamical feedbacks of regional weather phenomena to the large scale circulation. The projected uses of this capability include the research of up-scaling effect of regional weather system, and its use as an alternative physical representation of sub-scale processes in coarser-resolution climate models.
Lin, Wuyin [Brookhaven National Laboratory] [Brookhaven National Laboratory; Zhang, Minghua [Stony Brook University] [Stony Brook University; He, Juanxiong [Stony Brook University] [Stony Brook University; Jiao, Xiangmin [Stony Brook University] [Stony Brook University; Chen, Ying [Stony Brook University] [Stony Brook University; Colle, Brian [Stony Brook University] [Stony Brook University; Vogelmann, Andrew M. [Brookhaven National Laboratory] [Brookhaven National Laboratory; Liu, Ping [Stony Brook University] [Stony Brook University; Khairoutdinov, Marat [Stony Brook University] [Stony Brook University; Leung, Ruby [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory] [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is designed for numerical weather prediction and atmospheric research. The WRF software infrastructure consists of several components such as dynamic solvers and physics schemes. Numerical models are used to resolve the large-scale flow. However, subgrid-scale parameterizations are for an estimation of small-scale properties (e.g., boundary layer turbulence and convection, clouds, radiation). Those have a significant influence on the resolved scale due to the complex nonlinear nature of the atmosphere. For the cloudy planetary boundary layer (PBL), it is fundamental to parameterize vertical turbulent fluxes and subgrid-scale condensation in a realistic manner. A parameterization based on the Total Energy - Mass Flux (TEMF) that unifies turbulence and moist convection components produces a better result that the other PBL schemes. For that reason, the TEMF scheme is chosen as the PBL scheme we optimized for Intel Many Integrated Core (MIC), which ushers in a new era of supercomputing speed, performance, and compatibility. It allows the developers to run code at trillions of calculations per second using the familiar programming model. In this paper, we present our optimization results for TEMF planetary boundary layer scheme. The optimizations that were performed were quite generic in nature. Those optimizations included vectorization of the code to utilize vector units inside each CPU. Furthermore, memory access was improved by scalarizing some of the intermediate arrays. The results show that the optimization improved MIC performance by 14.8x. Furthermore, the optimizations increased CPU performance by 2.6x compared to the original multi-threaded code on quad core Intel Xeon E5-2603 running at 1.8 GHz. Compared to the optimized code running on a single CPU socket the optimized MIC code is 6.2x faster.
Mielikainen, Jarno; Huang, Bormin; Huang, Allen
Evapotranspiration is an important process in hydrology and is central to the analysis of water balances and water resource management. Significant water losses can occur in large drainage basins under semi arid climate conditions, moreover with the lack of measured data, the exact losses are hard to quantify. Since direct measurements for evapotranspiration are difficult to obtain it is common to estimate the process by using evapotranspiration models such as the Priestley-Taylor model, Shuttleworth -Wallace model and the FAO Penmann-Monteith. However these models depend on several atmospheric variables such as atmospheric pressure, wind speed, air temperature, net radiation and relative humidity. Some of these variables are also difficult to acquire from in-situ measurements; in addition these measurements provide local information which need to be interpolated to cover larger catchment areas over long time scales. Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) modelling has become more accessible to the hydrometeorological community in recent years and is frequently used for modelling precipitation at the catchment scale. However these NWPs can also provide the atmospheric variables needed for evapotranspiration estimation at finer resolutions than can be attained from in situ measurements, offering a practical water resource tool. Moreover there is evidence that assimilation of real time observations can help improve the accuracy of mesoscale weather modelling which in turn would improve the overall evapotranspiration estimate. This study explores the effect of data assimilation in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to derive evapotranspiration estimates for the Tigris water basin, Iraq. Two types of traditional observations, SYNOP and SOUND are assimilated by WRF-3DVAR.which contain surface and upper-level measurements of pressure, temperature, humidity and wind. The downscaled weather variables are used to determine evapostranspiration estimates and compared with observed evapostranspiration data measured by Class A evaporation pan.
Bray, Michaela; Liu, Jia; Abdulhamza, Ali; Bocklemann-Evans, Bettina
Study of aerosols is important for a fair understanding of the Earth climate system. This requires knowledge of the physical, chemical, optical, and morphological properties of aerosols. Aerosol radiative forcing provides information on the effect of aerosols on the Earth radiation budget. Radiative forcing estimates using model data provide an opportunity to examine the contribution of individual aerosol species to overall radiative forcing. We have used Weather Research and Forecast with Online Chemistry (WRF-Chem) derived aerosol concentration data to compute aerosol radiative forcing over north India during pre-monsoon season of 2008, 2009, and 2010. WRF-Chem derived mass concentrations are converted to number concentrations using standard procedure. Optical Properties of Aerosol and Cloud (OPAC) software package is used to compute extinction and scattering coefficients, and asymmetry parameter. Computations are performed at different altitudes and the obtained values are integrated to get the column optical properties. Santa Barbara Discrete Ordinate Radiative Transfer (SBDART) model is used to calculate the radiative forcing at surface and top-of-atmosphere. Higher values of aerosol radiative forcing are observed over desert region in western Indian state of Rajasthan, and Punjab of Pakistan. Contribution of individual aerosol species to atmospheric radiative forcing is also assessed. Dust radiative forcing is high over western India. Radiative forcing due to BC and water-soluble (WASO) aerosols are higher over north-west Indian states of Punjab and Haryana, and the Indo-Gangetic Basin. A pool of high WASO optical depth and radiative forcing is observed over the Indo-Bangladesh border. The findings