Predicting Power Outages Using Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cerrai, D.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Yang, J.; Astitha, M.

2017-12-01

Power outages affect every year millions of people in the United States, affecting the economy and conditioning the everyday life. An Outage Prediction Model (OPM) has been developed at the University of Connecticut for helping utilities to quickly restore outages and to limit their adverse consequences on the population. The OPM, operational since 2015, combines several non-parametric machine learning (ML) models that use historical weather storm simulations and high-resolution weather forecasts, satellite remote sensing data, and infrastructure and land cover data to predict the number and spatial distribution of power outages. A new methodology, developed for improving the outage model performances by combining weather- and soil-related variables using three different weather models (WRF 3.7, WRF 3.8 and RAMS/ICLAMS), will be presented in this study. First, we will present a performance evaluation of each model variable, by comparing historical weather analyses with station data or reanalysis over the entire storm data set. Hence, each variable of the new outage model version is extracted from the best performing weather model for that variable, and sensitivity tests are performed for investigating the most efficient variable combination for outage prediction purposes. Despite that the final variables combination is extracted from different weather models, this ensemble based on multi-weather forcing and multi-statistical model power outage prediction outperforms the currently operational OPM version that is based on a single weather forcing variable (WRF 3.7), because each model component is the closest to the actual atmospheric state.

Lights out: Impact of the August 2003 power outage on mortality in New York, NY

PubMed Central

Anderson, G. Brooke; Bell, Michelle L.

2012-01-01

Background Little is known about how power outages affect health. We investigated mortality effects of the largest US blackout to date, August 14–15, 2003 in New York, NY. Methods We estimated mortality risk in New York, NY, using a generalized linear model with data from 1987–2005. We incorporated possible confounders, including weather and long-term and seasonal mortality trends. Results During the blackout, mortality increased for accidental deaths (122% [95% confidence interval = 28%–287%]) and non-accidental (i.e., disease-related) deaths (25% [12%–41%]), resulting in approximately 90 excess deaths. Increased mortality was not from deaths being advanced by a few days; rather, mortality risk remained slightly elevated through August 2003. Discussion To our knowledge, this is the first analysis of power outages and non-accidental mortality. Understanding the impact of power outages on human health is relevant, given that increased energy demand and climate change are likely to put added strain on power grids. PMID:22252408

Outage differences between Diablo Canyon and Unterweser power plants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mehrens, H.

Diablo Canyon (DCPP) of Pacific Gas and Electric Company and Unterweser (KKU) of PreussenElektra have had an ongoing exchange program since 1989, which includes mutual visits by their employees at the optimum time for observing outages. Both DCPP and Unterweser use four-loop pressurized water reactors (PWRs), DCPP with two 1,100-MW units and KKU with a single 1,300-MW unit. Unterweser finished its 11th outage in 1990; DCPP units 1 and 2 will have their fourth outages in 1991. The scope of the maintenance and refueling work is quite similar in both plants and offers, therefore, a good basis for comparison. Outagemore » durations at European Kraftwerk Union KWU-PWR plants average {approximately}30 days as compared to the 60 to 80 days for PWRs in the US. Diablo Canyon has reduced outage durations from > 100 days to < 60. The key areas that contribute to the differences in outage duration are plant design and layout and outage execution.« less

ALARA database value in future outage work planning and dose management

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miller, D.W.; Green, W.H.

1995-03-01

ALARA database encompassing job-specific duration and man-rem plant specific information over three refueling outages represents an invaluable tool for the outage work planner and ALARA engineer. This paper describes dose-management trends emerging based on analysis of three refueling outages at Clinton Power Station. Conclusions reached based on hard data available from a relational database dose-tracking system is a valuable tool for planning of future outage work. The system`s ability to identify key problem areas during a refueling outage is improving as more outage comparative data becomes available. Trends over a three outage period are identified in this paper in themore » categories of number and type of radiation work permits implemented, duration of jobs, projected vs. actual dose rates in work areas, and accuracy of outage person-rem projection. The value of the database in projecting 1 and 5 year station person-rem estimates is discussed.« less

Effects of Phasor Measurement Uncertainty on Power Line Outage Detection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Chen; Wang, Jianhui; Zhu, Hao

2014-12-01

Phasor measurement unit (PMU) technology provides an effective tool to enhance the wide-area monitoring systems (WAMSs) in power grids. Although extensive studies have been conducted to develop several PMU applications in power systems (e.g., state estimation, oscillation detection and control, voltage stability analysis, and line outage detection), the uncertainty aspects of PMUs have not been adequately investigated. This paper focuses on quantifying the impact of PMU uncertainty on power line outage detection and identification, in which a limited number of PMUs installed at a subset of buses are utilized to detect and identify the line outage events. Specifically, the linemore » outage detection problem is formulated as a multi-hypothesis test, and a general Bayesian criterion is used for the detection procedure, in which the PMU uncertainty is analytically characterized. We further apply the minimum detection error criterion for the multi-hypothesis test and derive the expected detection error probability in terms of PMU uncertainty. The framework proposed provides fundamental guidance for quantifying the effects of PMU uncertainty on power line outage detection. Case studies are provided to validate our analysis and show how PMU uncertainty influences power line outage detection.« less

Outage management and health physics issue, 2007

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Agnihotri, Newal

2007-05-15

The focus of the May-June issue is on outage management and health physics. Major articles/reports in this issue include: India: a potential commercial opportunity, a U.S. Department of Commerce Report, by Joe Neuhoff and Justin Rathke; The changing climate for nuclear energy, by Skip Bowman, Nuclear Energy Insitute; Selecting protective clothing, by J. Mark Price, Southern California Edison; and Succssful refurbishment outage, by Sudesh K. Gambhir, Omaha Public Power District. Industry innovation articles in this issue are: Containment radiation monitoring spiking, by Michael W. Lantz and Robert Routolo, Arizona Public Service Company; Improved outage performance, by Michael Powell and Troymore » Wilfong, Arizona Public Service Company, Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station; Stop repacking valves and achieve leak-free performance, by Kenneth Hart, PPL Susquehanna LLC; and Head assembly upgrade package, by Timothy Petit, Dominion Nuclear.« less

47 CFR 4.9 - Outage reporting requirements-threshold criteria.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... submit electronically an Initial Communications Outage Report to the Commission. Not later than thirty days after discovering the outage, the provider shall submit electronically a Final Communications... cannot be obtained through any of the methods described, for whatever reason, then the provider shall...

47 CFR 4.9 - Outage reporting requirements-threshold criteria.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... submit electronically an Initial Communications Outage Report to the Commission. Not later than thirty days after discovering the outage, the provider shall submit electronically a Final Communications... cannot be obtained through any of the methods described, for whatever reason, then the provider shall...

47 CFR 4.9 - Outage reporting requirements-threshold criteria.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... submit electronically an Initial Communications Outage Report to the Commission. Not later than thirty days after discovering the outage, the provider shall submit electronically a Final Communications... cannot be obtained through any of the methods described, for whatever reason, then the provider shall...

47 CFR 4.9 - Outage reporting requirements-threshold criteria.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... submit electronically an Initial Communications Outage Report to the Commission. Not later than thirty days after discovering the outage, the provider shall submit electronically a Final Communications... cannot be obtained through any of the methods described, for whatever reason, then the provider shall...

Knowledge to Action - Understanding Natural Hazards-Induced Power Outage Scenarios for Actionable Disaster Responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kar, B.; Robinson, C.; Koch, D. B.; Omitaomu, O.

2017-12-01

The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 identified the following four priorities to prevent and reduce disaster risks: i) understanding disaster risk; ii) strengthening governance to manage disaster risk; iii) investing in disaster risk reduction for resilience and; iv) enhancing disaster preparedness for effective response, and to "Build Back Better" in recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction. While forecasting and decision making tools are in place to predict and understand future impacts of natural hazards, the knowledge to action approach that currently exists fails to provide updated information needed by decision makers to undertake response and recovery efforts following a hazard event. For instance, during a tropical storm event advisories are released every two to three hours, but manual analysis of geospatial data to determine potential impacts of the event tends to be time-consuming and a post-event process. Researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory have developed a Spatial Decision Support System that enables real-time analysis of storm impact based on updated advisory. A prototype of the tool that focuses on determining projected power outage areas and projected duration of outages demonstrates the feasibility of integrating science with decision making for emergency management personnel to act in real time to protect communities and reduce risk.

Estimating Power Outage Cost based on a Survey for Industrial Customers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshida, Yoshikuni; Matsuhashi, Ryuji

A survey was conducted on power outage cost for industrial customers. 5139 factories, which are designated energy management factories in Japan, answered their power consumption and the loss of production value due to the power outage in an hour in summer weekday. The median of unit cost of power outage of whole sectors is estimated as 672 yen/kWh. The sector of services for amusement and hobbies and the sector of manufacture of information and communication electronics equipment relatively have higher unit cost of power outage. Direct damage cost from power outage in whole sectors reaches 77 billion yen. Then utilizing input-output analysis, we estimated indirect damage cost that is caused by the repercussion of production halt. Indirect damage cost in whole sectors reaches 91 billion yen. The sector of wholesale and retail trade has the largest direct damage cost. The sector of manufacture of transportation equipment has the largest indirect damage cost.

The role of the AWS CWI in a major power plant outage

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Walsh, T.W.

In March of 1988, an eight-week outage began at the Keystone Electric Generating Station, 35 miles northwest of Johnstown, Pa. This outage encompassed the complete replacement of the reheat section of a 1,7000,000 kW boiler unit, as well as major repairs to the boiler itself. The author discusses how AWS (Certified Welding Inspectors) (CWl's) played a major part in the successful completion of over 7600 ASME butt joint welds during the outage. The welding on these outages is performed in strict accordance with the Pennsylvania Electric Company Quanity Assurance Specification and the applicable codes (ASME, NBIC, ANSI and AWS).

Seasonal and Local Characteristics of Lightning Outages of Power Distribution Lines in Hokuriku Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugimoto, Hitoshi; Shimasaki, Katsuhiko

The proportion of the lightning outages in all outages on Japanese 6.6kV distribution lines is high with approximately 20 percent, and then lightning protections are very important for supply reliability of 6.6kV lines. It is effective for the lightning performance to apply countermeasures in order of the area where a large number of the lightning outages occur. Winter lightning occurs in Hokuriku area, therefore it is also important to understand the seasonal characteristics of the lightning outages. In summer 70 percent of the lightning outages on distribution lines in Hokuriku area were due to sparkover, such as power wire breakings and failures of pole-mounted transformers. However, in winter almost half of lightning-damaged equipments were surge arrester failures. The number of the lightning outages per lightning strokes detected by the lightning location system (LLS) in winter was 4.4 times larger than that in summer. The authors have presumed the occurrence of lightning outages from lightning stroke density, 50% value of lightning current and installation rate of lightning protection equipments and overhead ground wire by multiple regression analysis. The presumed results suggest the local difference in the lightning outages.

Estimating the Propagation of Interdependent Cascading Outages with Multi-Type Branching Processes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qi, Junjian; Ju, Wenyun; Sun, Kai

In this paper, the multi-type branching process is applied to describe the statistics and interdependencies of line outages, the load shed, and isolated buses. The offspring mean matrix of the multi-type branching process is estimated by the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm and can quantify the extent of outage propagation. The joint distribution of two types of outages is estimated by the multi-type branching process via the Lagrange-Good inversion. The proposed model is tested with data generated by the AC OPA cascading simulations on the IEEE 118-bus system. The largest eigenvalues of the offspring mean matrix indicate that the system ismore » closer to criticality when considering the interdependence of different types of outages. Compared with empirically estimating the joint distribution of the total outages, good estimate is obtained by using the multitype branching process with a much smaller number of cascades, thus greatly improving the efficiency. It is shown that the multitype branching process can effectively predict the distribution of the load shed and isolated buses and their conditional largest possible total outages even when there are no data of them.« less

Verification and Enhancement of VIIRS Day-Night Band Power Outage Detection Product

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burke, A.; Schultz, L. A.; Omitaomu, O.; Molthan, A.; Cole, T.; Griffin, R.

2017-12-01

The NASA SPoRT (Short-term Prediction Research and Transition) Center has collaborated with scientists at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center to create a power outage detection product from radiance data obtained by the VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) sensor aboard the Suomi-NPP satellite. This product uses a composite of pre-event radiance values from the VIIRS Day-Night Band to establish a baseline of "normal" nighttime lights for a study area. Then, after a severe weather event or other disaster, post-event images are compared to the composite to generate a percent-of-normal radiance product to identify areas that are experiencing outages and to aid in disaster response and monitor recovery. This project will use ground-truth county-level outage data provided by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in order validate the product and to establish a percent-of-normal threshold for identifying power outages. Once a threshold is found, ORNL's LandScan Global population data will be combined with the product to estimate how many electrical customers are being affected by power outages after a disaster. Two case studies will be explored to examine power outage recovery after severe weather events, including Hurricane Matthew from 2016 and the Washington D.C. Derecho event of 2012.

Status Report on the Development of Micro-Scheduling Software for the Advanced Outage Control Center Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Germain, Shawn St.; Thomas, Kenneth; Farris, Ronald

2014-09-01

The long-term viability of existing nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the United States (U.S.) is dependent upon a number of factors, including maintaining high capacity factors, maintaining nuclear safety, and reducing operating costs, particularly those associated with refueling outages. Refueling outages typically take 20-30 days, and for existing light water NPPs in the U.S., the reactor cannot be in operation during the outage. Furthermore, given that many NPPs generate between $1-1.5 million/day in revenue when in operation, there is considerable interest in shortening the length of refueling outages. Yet, refueling outages are highly complex operations, involving multiple concurrent and dependentmore » activities that are difficult to coordinate. Finding ways to improve refueling outage performance while maintaining nuclear safety has proven to be difficult. The Advanced Outage Control Center project is a research and development (R&D) demonstration activity under the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program. LWRS is a R&D program which works with industry R&D programs to establish technical foundations for the licensing and managing of long-term, safe, and economical operation of current NPPs. The Advanced Outage Control Center project has the goal of improving the management of commercial NPP refueling outages. To accomplish this goal, this INL R&D project is developing an advanced outage control center (OCC) that is specifically designed to maximize the usefulness of communication and collaboration technologies for outage coordination and problem resolution activities. This report describes specific recent efforts to develop a capability called outage Micro-Scheduling. Micro-Scheduling is the ability to allocate and schedule outage support task resources on a sub-hour basis. Micro-Scheduling is the real-time fine-tuning of the outage schedule to react to the actual progress of the primary outage activities to ensure that support task resources are

Synthesis of power plant outage schedules. Final technical report, April 1995-January 1996

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, D.R.

This document provides a report on the creation of domain theories in the power plant outage domain. These were developed in conjunction with the creation of a demonstration system of advanced scheduling technology for the outage problem. In 1994 personnel from Rome Laboratory (RL), Kaman Science (KS), Kestrel Institute, and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) began a joint project to develop scheduling tools for power plant outage activities. This report describes our support for this joint effort. The project uses KIDS (Kestrel Interactive Development System) to generate schedulers from formal specifications of the power plant domain outage activities.

Development of an Overview Display to Allow Advanced Outage Control Center Management to Quickly Evaluate Outage Status

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

St Germain, Shawn Walter; Hugo, Jacques Victor

This report describes recent advances made in developing a framework for the design of visual outage information presentation, as well as an overview of the scientific principles that informed the development of the visualizations.

Hybrid Cascading Outage Analysis of Extreme Events with Optimized Corrective Actions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vallem, Mallikarjuna R.; Vyakaranam, Bharat GNVSR; Holzer, Jesse T.

2017-10-19

Power system are vulnerable to extreme contingencies (like an outage of a major generating substation) that can cause significant generation and load loss and can lead to further cascading outages of other transmission facilities and generators in the system. Some cascading outages are seen within minutes following a major contingency, which may not be captured exclusively using the dynamic simulation of the power system. The utilities plan for contingencies either based on dynamic or steady state analysis separately which may not accurately capture the impact of one process on the other. We address this gap in cascading outage analysis bymore » developing Dynamic Contingency Analysis Tool (DCAT) that can analyze hybrid dynamic and steady state behavior of the power system, including protection system models in dynamic simulations, and simulating corrective actions in post-transient steady state conditions. One of the important implemented steady state processes is to mimic operator corrective actions to mitigate aggravated states caused by dynamic cascading. This paper presents an Optimal Power Flow (OPF) based formulation for selecting corrective actions that utility operators can take during major contingency and thus automate the hybrid dynamic-steady state cascading outage process. The improved DCAT framework with OPF based corrective actions is demonstrated on IEEE 300 bus test system.« less

Are Older Adults Prepared to Ensure Food Safety during Extended Power Outages and Other Emergencies?: Findings from a National Survey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kosa, Katherine M.; Cates, Sheryl C.; Karns, Shawn; Godwin, Sandria L.; Coppings, Richard J.

2012-01-01

Natural disasters and other emergencies can cause an increased risk of foodborne illness. We conducted a nationally representative survey to understand consumers' knowledge and use of recommended practices during/after extended power outages and other emergencies. Because older adults are at an increased risk for foodborne illness, this paper…

A Bayesian Approach Based Outage Prediction in Electric Utility Systems Using Radar Measurement Data

DOE PAGES

Yue, Meng; Toto, Tami; Jensen, Michael P.; ...

2017-05-18

Severe weather events such as strong thunderstorms are some of the most significant and frequent threats to the electrical grid infrastructure. Outages resulting from storms can be very costly. While some tools are available to utilities to predict storm occurrences and damage, they are typically very crude and provide little means of facilitating restoration efforts. This study developed a methodology to use historical high-resolution (both temporal and spatial) radar observations of storm characteristics and outage information to develop weather condition dependent failure rate models (FRMs) for different grid components. Such models can provide an estimation or prediction of the outagemore » numbers in small areas of a utility’s service territory once the real-time measurement or forecasted data of weather conditions become available as the input to the models. Considering the potential value provided by real-time outages reported, a Bayesian outage prediction (BOP) algorithm is proposed to account for both strength and uncertainties of the reported outages and failure rate models. The potential benefit of this outage prediction scheme is illustrated in this study.« less

A Bayesian Approach Based Outage Prediction in Electric Utility Systems Using Radar Measurement Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yue, Meng; Toto, Tami; Jensen, Michael P.

Severe weather events such as strong thunderstorms are some of the most significant and frequent threats to the electrical grid infrastructure. Outages resulting from storms can be very costly. While some tools are available to utilities to predict storm occurrences and damage, they are typically very crude and provide little means of facilitating restoration efforts. This study developed a methodology to use historical high-resolution (both temporal and spatial) radar observations of storm characteristics and outage information to develop weather condition dependent failure rate models (FRMs) for different grid components. Such models can provide an estimation or prediction of the outagemore » numbers in small areas of a utility’s service territory once the real-time measurement or forecasted data of weather conditions become available as the input to the models. Considering the potential value provided by real-time outages reported, a Bayesian outage prediction (BOP) algorithm is proposed to account for both strength and uncertainties of the reported outages and failure rate models. The potential benefit of this outage prediction scheme is illustrated in this study.« less

Using Predictive Analytics to Predict Power Outages from Severe Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wanik, D. W.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Hartman, B.; Frediani, M. E.; Astitha, M.

2015-12-01

The distribution of reliable power is essential to businesses, public services, and our daily lives. With the growing abundance of data being collected and created by industry (i.e. outage data), government agencies (i.e. land cover), and academia (i.e. weather forecasts), we can begin to tackle problems that previously seemed too complex to solve. In this session, we will present newly developed tools to aid decision-support challenges at electric distribution utilities that must mitigate, prepare for, respond to and recover from severe weather. We will show a performance evaluation of outage predictive models built for Eversource Energy (formerly Connecticut Light & Power) for storms of all types (i.e. blizzards, thunderstorms and hurricanes) and magnitudes (from 20 to >15,000 outages). High resolution weather simulations (simulated with the Weather and Research Forecast Model) were joined with utility outage data to calibrate four types of models: a decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), boosted gradient tree (BT) and an ensemble (ENS) decision tree regression that combined predictions from DT, RF and BT. The study shows that the ENS model forced with weather, infrastructure and land cover data was superior to the other models we evaluated, especially in terms of predicting the spatial distribution of outages. This research has the potential to be used for other critical infrastructure systems (such as telecommunications, drinking water and gas distribution networks), and can be readily expanded to the entire New England region to facilitate better planning and coordination among decision-makers when severe weather strikes.

NOAA Weather Radio - Outage Reporting

Science.gov Websites

is not listed at Current Outages, the problem may be possibly be with your receiver. If your NWR receiver is not working properly or you need assistance in programming your NWR receiver, please click here information we may not be able to troubleshoot the problem fully. COVERAGE County Coverage Listings State

Air traffic control : good progress on interim replacement for outage-plagued system, but risks can be further reduced

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-10-01

Certain air traffic control(ATC) centers experienced a series of major outages, : some of which were caused by the Display Channel Complex or DCC-a mainframe : computer system that processes radar and other data into displayable images on : controlle...

Diarrheal Illness Detected Through Syndromic Surveillance After a Massive Power Outage: New York City, August 2003

PubMed Central

Marx, Melissa A.; Rodriguez, Carla V.; Greenko, Jane; Das, Debjani; Heffernan, Richard; Karpati, Adam M.; Mostashari, Farzad; Balter, Sharon; Layton, Marcelle; Weiss, Don

2006-01-01

Objectives. We investigated increases in diarrheal illness detected through syndromic surveillance after a power outage in New York City on August 14, 2003. Methods. The New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene uses emergency department, pharmacy, and absentee data to conduct syndromic surveillance for diarrhea. We conducted a case–control investigation among patients presenting during August 16 to 18, 2003, to emergency departments that participated in syndromic surveillance. We compared risk factors for diarrheal illness ascertained through structured telephone interviews for case patients presenting with diarrheal symptoms and control patients selected from a stratified random sample of nondiarrheal patients. Results. Increases in diarrhea were detected in all data streams. Of 758 patients selected for the investigation, 301 (40%) received the full interview. Among patients 13 years and older, consumption of meat (odds ratio [OR]=2.7, 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.2, 6.1) and seafood (OR=4.8; 95% CI=1.6, 14) between the power outage and symptom onset was associated with diarrheal illness. Conclusions. Diarrhea may have resulted from consumption of meat or seafood that spoiled after the power outage. Syndromic surveillance enabled prompt detection and systematic investigation of citywide illness that would otherwise have gone undetected. PMID:16380562

Enhanced outage prediction modeling for strong extratropical storms and hurricanes in the Northeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cerrai, D.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Wanik, D. W.; Bhuiyan, M. A. E.; Zhang, X.; Yang, J.; Astitha, M.; Frediani, M. E.; Schwartz, C. S.; Pardakhti, M.

2016-12-01

The overwhelming majority of human activities need reliable electric power. Severe weather events can cause power outages, resulting in substantial economic losses and a temporary worsening of living conditions. Accurate prediction of these events and the communication of forecasted impacts to the affected utilities is necessary for efficient emergency preparedness and mitigation. The University of Connecticut Outage Prediction Model (OPM) uses regression tree models, high-resolution weather reanalysis and real-time weather forecasts (WRF and NCAR ensemble), airport station data, vegetation and electric grid characteristics and historical outage data to forecast the number and spatial distribution of outages in the power distribution grid located within dense vegetation. Recent OPM improvements consist of improved storm classification and addition of new predictive weather-related variables and are demonstrated using a leave-one-storm-out cross-validation based on 130 severe extratropical storms and two hurricanes (Sandy and Irene) in the Northeast US. We show that it is possible to predict the number of trouble spots causing outages in the electric grid with a median absolute percentage error as low as 27% for some storm types, and at most around 40%, in a scale that varies between four orders of magnitude, from few outages to tens of thousands. This outage information can be communicated to the electric utility to manage allocation of crews and equipment and minimize the recovery time for an upcoming storm hazard.

The impact of a large-scale power outage on hemodialysis center operations.

PubMed

Abir, Mahshid; Jan, Sophia; Jubelt, Lindsay; Merchant, Raina M; Lurie, Nicole

2013-12-01

On June 29, 2012, mid-Atlantic storms resulted in a large-scale power outage affecting up to three million people across multiple (US) states. Hemodialysis centers are dependent on electricity to provide dialysis care to end-stage renal disease patients. The objective of this study was to determine how the power outage impacted operations in a sample of hemodialysis centers in the impacted regions. The sample consisted of all hemodialysis centers located in the District of Columbia and a total of five counties with the largest power losses in West Virginia, Virginia, and Maryland. A semi-structured interview guide was developed, and the charge nurse or supervisor in each facility was interviewed. The survey questions addressed whether their centers lost power, if so, for how long, where their patients received dialysis, whether their centers had backup generators, and if so, whether they had any problems operating them, and whether their center received patients from other centers if they had power. Calls were placed to 90 dialysis centers in the sampled areas and a 90% response rate was achieved. Overall, hemodialysis operations at approximately 30% (n = 24) of the centers queried were impacted by the power outage. Of the 36 centers that lost power, 31% (n = 11) referred their patients to other dialysis centers, 22% (n = 8) accommodated their patients during a later shift or on a different day; the rest of the centers either experienced brief power outages that did not affect operations or experienced a power outage on days that the center is usually closed. Some centers in the study cohort reported receiving patients from other centers for dialysis 33% (n = 27). Thirty-two percent (n = 26) of the centers queried had backup generators on site. Eleven percent (n = 4) of the centers experiencing power outages reported that backup generators were brought in by their parent companies. Comprehensive emergency planning for dialysis centers should include provisions for

Design Concepts for an Outage Control Center Information Dashboard

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hugo, Jacques Victor; St Germain, Shawn Walter; Thompson, Cheradan Jo

The nuclear industry, and the business world in general, is facing a rapidly increasing amount of data to be dealt with on a daily basis. In the last two decades, the steady improvement of data storage devices and means to create and collect data along the way influenced the manner in which we deal with information. Most data is still stored without filtering and refinement for later use. Many functions at a nuclear power plant generate vast amounts of data, with scheduled and unscheduled outages being a prime example of a source of some of the most complex data setsmore » at the plant. To make matters worse, modern information and communications technology is making it possible to collect and store data faster than our ability to use it for making decisions. However, in most applications, especially outages, raw data has no value in itself; instead, managers, engineers and other specialists want to extract the information contained in it. The complexity and sheer volume of data could lead to information overload, resulting in getting lost in data that may be irrelevant to the task at hand, processed in an inappropriate way, or presented in an ineffective way. To prevent information overload, many data sources are ignored so production opportunities are lost because utilities lack the ability to deal with the enormous data volumes properly. Decision-makers are often confronted with large amounts of disparate, conflicting and dynamic information, which are available from multiple heterogeneous sources. Information and communication technologies alone will not solve this problem. Utilities need effective methods to exploit and use the hidden opportunities and knowledge residing in unexplored data resources. Superior performance before, during and after outages depends upon the right information being available at the right time to the right people. Acquisition of raw data is the easy part; instead, it is the ability to use advanced analytical, data processing and

Outage management and health physics issue, 2009

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Agnihotri, Newal

2009-05-15

The focus of the May-June issue is on outage management and health physics. Major articles include the following: Planning and scheduling to minimize refueling outage, by Pat McKenna, AmerenUE; Prioritizing safety, quality and schedule, by Tom Sharkey, Dominion; Benchmarking to high standards, by Margie Jepson, Energy Nuclear; Benchmarking against U.S. standards, by Magnox North, United Kingdom; Enabling suppliers for new build activity, by Marcus Harrington, GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy; Identifying, cultivating and qualifying suppliers, by Thomas E. Silva, AREVA NP; Creating new U.S. jobs, by Francois Martineau, Areva NP. Industry innovation articles include: MSL Acoustic source load reduction, by Amirmore » Shahkarami, Exelon Nuclear; Dual Methodology NDE of CRDM nozzles, by Michael Stark, Dominion Nuclear; and Electronic circuit board testing, by James Amundsen, FirstEnergy Nuclear Operating Company. The plant profile article is titled The future is now, by Julia Milstead, Progress Energy Service Company, LLC.« less

Distortion outage minimization in Nakagami fading using limited feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chih-Hong; Dey, Subhrakanti

2011-12-01

We focus on a decentralized estimation problem via a clustered wireless sensor network measuring a random Gaussian source where the clusterheads amplify and forward their received signals (from the intra-cluster sensors) over orthogonal independent stationary Nakagami fading channels to a remote fusion center that reconstructs an estimate of the original source. The objective of this paper is to design clusterhead transmit power allocation policies to minimize the distortion outage probability at the fusion center, subject to an expected sum transmit power constraint. In the case when full channel state information (CSI) is available at the clusterhead transmitters, the optimization problem can be shown to be convex and is solved exactly. When only rate-limited channel feedback is available, we design a number of computationally efficient sub-optimal power allocation algorithms to solve the associated non-convex optimization problem. We also derive an approximation for the diversity order of the distortion outage probability in the limit when the average transmission power goes to infinity. Numerical results illustrate that the sub-optimal power allocation algorithms perform very well and can close the outage probability gap between the constant power allocation (no CSI) and full CSI-based optimal power allocation with only 3-4 bits of channel feedback.

77 FR 63757 - Extension of the Commission's Rules Regarding Outage Reporting to Interconnected Voice Over...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-10-17

... Commission's Rules Regarding Outage Reporting to Interconnected Voice Over Internet Protocol Service Providers and Broadband Internet Service Providers AGENCY: Federal Communications Commission. ACTION: Final... Regarding Outage Reporting to Interconnected Voice Over Internet Protocol Service Providers and Broadband...

Synergistic Use of Nighttime Satellite Data, Electric Utility Infrastructure, and Ambient Population to Improve Power Outage Detections in Urban Areas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cole, Tony A.; Wanik, David W.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Roman, Miguel O.; Griffin, Robert E.

2017-01-01

Natural and anthropogenic hazards are frequently responsible for disaster events, leading to damaged physical infrastructure, which can result in loss of electrical power for affected locations. Remotely-sensed, nighttime satellite imagery from the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (Suomi-NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Day/Night Band (DNB) can monitor power outages in disaster-affected areas through the identification of missing city lights. When combined with locally-relevant geospatial information, these observations can be used to estimate power outages, defined as geographic locations requiring manual intervention to restore power. In this study, we produced a power outage product based on Suomi-NPP VIIRS DNB observations to estimate power outages following Hurricane Sandy in 2012. This product, combined with known power outage data and ambient population estimates, was then used to predict power outages in a layered, feedforward neural network model. We believe this is the first attempt to synergistically combine such data sources to quantitatively estimate power outages. The VIIRS DNB power outage product was able to identify initial loss of light following Hurricane Sandy, as well as the gradual restoration of electrical power. The neural network model predicted power outages with reasonable spatial accuracy, achieving Pearson coefficients (r) between 0.48 and 0.58 across all folds. Our results show promise for producing a continental United States (CONUS)- or global-scale power outage monitoring network using satellite imagery and locally-relevant geospatial data.

MIMO capacities and outage probabilities in spatially multiplexed optical transport systems.

PubMed

Winzer, Peter J; Foschini, Gerard J

2011-08-15

With wavelength-division multiplexing (WDM) rapidly nearing its scalability limits, space-division multiplexing (SDM) seems the only option to further scale the capacity of optical transport networks. In order for SDM systems to continue the WDM trend of reducing energy and cost per bit with system capacity, integration will be key to SDM. Since integration is likely to introduce non-negligible crosstalk between multiple parallel transmission paths, multiple-input multiple output (MIMO) signal processing techniques will have to be used. In this paper, we discuss MIMO capacities in optical SDM systems, including related outage considerations which are an important part in the design of such systems. In order to achieve the low-outage standards required for optical transport networks, SDM transponders should be capable of individually addressing, and preferably MIMO processing all modes supported by the optical SDM waveguide. We then discuss the effect of distributed optical noise in MIMO SDM systems and focus on the impact of mode-dependent loss (MDL) on system capacity and system outage. Through extensive numerical simulations, we extract scaling rules for mode-average and mode-dependent loss and show that MIMO SDM systems composed of up to 128 segments and supporting up to 128 modes can tolerate up to 1 dB of per-segment MDL at 90% of the system's full capacity at an outage probability of 10(-4). © 2011 Optical Society of America

Providing Limited Local Electric Service During a Major Grid Outage: A First Assessment Based on Customer Willingness to Pay.

PubMed

Baik, Sunhee; Morgan, M Granger; Davis, Alexander L

2018-02-01

While they are rare, widespread blackouts of the bulk power system can result in large costs to individuals and society. If local distribution circuits remain intact, it is possible to use new technologies including smart meters, intelligent switches that can change the topology of distribution circuits, and distributed generation owned by customers and the power company, to provide limited local electric power service. Many utilities are already making investments that would make this possible. We use customers' measured willingness to pay to explore when the incremental investments needed to implement these capabilities would be justified. Under many circumstances, upgrades in advanced distribution systems could be justified for a customer charge of less than a dollar a month (plus the cost of electricity used during outages), and would be less expensive and safer than the proliferation of small portable backup generators. We also discuss issues of social equity, extreme events, and various sources of underlying uncertainty. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

A computer assisted intelligent storm outage evaluator for power distribution systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Balakrishnan, R.; Pahwa, A.

1990-07-01

The lower voltage part of the power distribution system (primary and secondary sub-systems) does not have the provision for real-time status feedback, and as a result evaluation of outages is an extremely difficult task, especially during system emergencies caused by tornadoes and ice-storms. In this paper, a knowledge based approach is proposed for evaluation of storm related outages in the distribution systems. At the outset, binary voltage sensors capable of transmitting the real-time voltage on/off symptoms are recommended to be installed at strategic locations in the distribution system.

Estimates of outage costs of electricity in Pakistan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ashraf, J.; Sabih, F.

1993-12-31

This article estimates outage costs of electricity for each of the four provinces in Pakistan (Punjab, North-West Frontier Province, Baluchistan, and Sind). The term {open_quotes}power outage{close_quotes} refers to all problems associated with electricity supply, such as voltage drops (brownouts), power failures (blackouts), and load shedding. The most significant of these in Pakistan is load shedding when power supply to different consumers is shut off during different times of the day, especially during peak hours when the pressure on the system is the highest. Power shortages mainly arise during the low-water months when the effective capacity of hydropower plants drops significantly.more » This decline in power supplied by hydro plants cannot be made up by operating thermal power plants because of the limited availability of gas and the high cost of alternative fuels required for the operation of gas turbines.« less

Verification and Enhancement of VIIRS Day-Night Band (DNB) Power Outage Detection Product

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burke, Angela; Schultz, Lori A.; Omitaomu, Olufemi; Molthan, Andrew L.; Cole, Tony; Griffin, Robert

2017-01-01

This case study of Hurricane Matthew (October 2016) uses the NASA Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center DNB power outage product (using GSFC VIIRS DNB preliminary Black Marble product, Roman et al.. 2017) and 2013 LandScan Global population data to look for correlations between the post-event %-of-normal radiance and the utility company-reported outage numbers (obtained from EAGLE-1).

Economic costs of electrical system instability and power outages caused by snakes on the Island of Guam

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fritts, T.H.

2002-01-01

The Brown Tree Snake, Boiga irregularis, is an introduced species on Guam where it causes frequent electrical power outages. The snake's high abundance, its propensity for climbing, and use of disturbed habitats all contribute to interruption of Guam's electrical service and the activities that depend on electrical power. Snakes have caused more than 1600 power outages in the 20-yr period of 1978–1997 and most recently nearly 200 outages per year. Single outages spanning the entire island and lasting 8 or more hours are estimated to cost in excess of $3,000,000 in lost productivity, but the costs of outages that involve only parts of the island or those of shorter durations are more difficult to quantify. Costs to the island's economy have exceeded $4.5 M $4.5M"> per year over a 7-yr period without considering repair costs, damage to electrical equipment, and lost revenues. Snakes pose the greatest problem on high voltage transmission lines, on transformers, and inside electrical substations.

Economic costs of electrical system instability and power outages caused by snakes on the Island of Guam

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fritts, T.H.

2002-01-01

The Brown Tree Snake, Boiga irregularis, is an introduced species on Guam where it causes frequent electrical power outages. The snake's high abundance, its propensity for climbing, and use of disturbed habitats all contribute to interruption of Guam's electrical service and the activities that depend on electrical power. Snakes have caused more than 1600 power outages in the 20-yr period of 1978-1997 and most recently nearly 200 outages per year. Single outages spanning the entire island and lasting 8 or more hours are estimated to cost in excess of $3,000,000 in lost productivity, but the costs of outages that involve only parts of the island or those of shorter durations are more difficult to quantify. Costs to the island's economy have exceeded $4.5 M per year over a 7-yr period without considering repair costs, damage to electrical equipment, and lost revenues. Snakes pose the greatest problem on high voltage transmission lines, on transformers, and inside electrical substations.

The cost of power outages in the business and public sectors in Israel: Revealed preference vs. subjective evaluation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beenstock, M.; Goldin, E.; Haitovsky, Y.

1997-05-01

The economic cost of power outages is a central parameter in the cost-benefit analysis of electric power reliability and the design of electric power systems. The authors present a new methodology for estimating the cost of power outages in the business and public sections and illustrate with data for Israel. The methodology is based on the principle of revealed preference, the cost of an outage may be inferred from the actions taken by consumers to mitigate losses induced by unsupplied electricity. If outages impose costs on businesses, managers are likely to invest in back-up power to mitigate the losses thatmore » are incurred when electricity is not supplied. Investment in back-up generators may then be used to impute the mitigated and unmitigated damage from outages. 12 refs., 3 figs., 7 tabs.« less

47 CFR 4.5 - Definitions of outage, special offices and facilities, and 911 special facilities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... facilities, and 911 special facilities. 4.5 Section 4.5 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION... Definitions of outage, special offices and facilities, and 911 special facilities. (a) Outage is defined as a... government facilities.” 911 special facilities are addressed separately in paragraph (e) of this section. (c...

Outage analysis of relay-assisted underwater wireless optical communication systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tabeshnezhad, Azadeh; Pourmina, Mohammad Ali

2017-12-01

In this paper, we theoretically evaluate the outage probabilities of underwater wireless optical communication (UWOC) systems. Our derivations are general as the channel model under consideration takes into account all of the channel degrading effects, namely absorption, scattering, and turbulence-induced fading. We numerically show that the UWOC systems, due to the severe channel impairments, cannot typically support longer link ranges than 100 m. Therefore, in this paper, in order to increase the transmission reliability and hence extend the viable communication range of UWOC systems, we apply decode-and-forward (DF) relay-assisted communications either in the form of multi-hop transmission, where multiple intermediate relays are serially employed between the source and destination, or parallel relaying in which multiple DF relays are distributed among the source-to-destination path to cooperate in the end-to-end transmission. Our numerical results reveal that multi-hop transmission, owing to the distance-dependency of all of the channel degrading effects, can tremendously improve the end-to-end outage probability and increase the accessible link ranges to hundreds of meter. For example, a dual-hop transmission in a 45 m coastal water link can provide up to 41 dB performance improvement at the outage probability of 10-9.

Application of Hybrid Geo-Spatially Granular Fragility Curves to Improve Power Outage Predictions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fernandez, Steven J; Allen, Melissa R; Omitaomu, Olufemi A

2014-01-01

Fragility curves depict the relationship between a weather variable (wind speed, gust speed, ice accumulation, precipitation rate) and the observed outages for a targeted infrastructure network. This paper describes an empirical study of the county by county distribution of power outages and one minute weather variables during Hurricane Irene with the objective of comparing 1) as built fragility curves (statistical approach) to engineering as designed (bottom up) fragility curves for skill in forecasting outages during future hurricanes; 2) county specific fragility curves to find examples of significant deviation from average behavior; and 3) the engineering practices of outlier counties tomore » suggest future engineering studies of robustness. Outages in more than 90% of the impacted counties could be anticipated through an average or generic fragility curve. The remaining counties could be identified and handled as exceptions through geographic data sets. The counties with increased or decreased robustness were characterized by terrain more or less susceptible to persistent flooding in areas where above ground poles located their foundations. Land use characteristics of the area served by the power distribution system can suggest trends in the as built power grid vulnerabilities to extreme weather events that would be subjects for site specific studies.« less

Use of VIIRS DNB Data to Monitor Power Outages and Restoration for Significant Weather Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jedlovec, Gary; Molthan, Andrew

2008-01-01

NASA fs Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) project operates from NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama. The team provides unique satellite data to the National Weather Service (NWS) and other agencies and organizations for weather analysis. While much of its work is focused on improving short-term weather forecasting, the SPoRT team supported damage assessment and response to Hurricane Superstorm Sandy by providing imagery that highlighted regions without power. The team used data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (Suomi NPP) satellite. The VIIRS low-light sensor, known as the day-night-band (DNB), can detect nighttime light from wildfires, urban and rural communities, and other human activity which emits light. It can also detect moonlight reflected from clouds and surface features. Using real time VIIRS data collected by our collaborative partner at the Space Science and Engineering Center of the University of Wisconsin, the SPoRT team created composite imagery to help detect power outages and restoration. This blackout imagery allowed emergency response teams from a variety of agencies to better plan and marshal resources for recovery efforts. The blackout product identified large-scale outages, offering a comprehensive perspective beyond a patchwork GIS mapping of outages that utility companies provide based on customer complaints. To support the relief efforts, the team provided its imagery to the USGS data portal, which the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and other agencies used in their relief efforts. The team fs product helped FEMA, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and U.S. Army monitor regions without power as part of their disaster response activities. Disaster responders used the images to identify possible outages and effectively distribute relief resources. An enhanced product is being developed and integrated into a web

Home Use Devices: How to Prepare for and Handle Power Outages for Medical Devices That Require Electricity

MedlinePlus

... Handle Power Outages for Medical Devices that Require Electricity Center for De CDRH vices and Rad lth ... Handle Power Outages for Medical Devices that Require Electricity As a home medical device user, it is ...

47 CFR 4.7 - Definitions of metrics used to determine the general outage-reporting threshold criteria.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Definitions of metrics used to determine the general outage-reporting threshold criteria. 4.7 Section 4.7 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS....7 Definitions of metrics used to determine the general outage-reporting threshold criteria. (a...

Outage Analysis of Dual-hop Cognitive Networks with Relay Selection over Nakagami-m Fading Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Zongsheng; Pi, Xurong

2014-09-01

In this paper, we investigate the outage performance of decode-and-forward cognitive relay networks for Nakagami-m fading channels, with considering both best relay selection and interference constraints. Focusing on the relay selection and making use of the underlay cognitive approach, an exact closed-form outage probability expression is derived in an independent, non-identical distributed Nakagami-m environment. The closed-form outage probability provides an efficient means to evaluate the effects of the maximum allowable interference power, number of cognitive relays, and channel conditions between the primary user and cognitive users. Finally, we present numerical results to validate the theory analysis. Moreover, from the simulation results, we obtain that the system can obtain the full diversity.

Power Allocation and Outage Probability Analysis for SDN-based Radio Access Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Yongxu; Chen, Yueyun; Mai, Zhiyuan

2018-01-01

In this paper, performance of Access network Architecture based SDN (Software Defined Network) is analyzed with respect to the power allocation issue. A power allocation scheme PSO-PA (Particle Swarm Optimization-power allocation) algorithm is proposed, the proposed scheme is subjected to constant total power with the objective of minimizing system outage probability. The entire access network resource configuration is controlled by the SDN controller, then it sends the optimized power distribution factor to the base station source node (SN) and the relay node (RN). Simulation results show that the proposed scheme reduces the system outage probability at a low complexity.

Cost of Lightning Strike Related Outages of Visual Navigational Aids at Airports in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rakas, J.; Nikolic, M.; Bauranov, A.

2017-12-01

Lightning storms are a serious hazard that can cause damage to vital human infrastructure. In aviation, lightning strikes cause outages to air traffic control equipment and facilities that result in major disruptions in the network, causing delays and financial costs measured in the millions of dollars. Failure of critical systems, such as Visual Navigational Aids (Visual NAVAIDS), are particularly dangerous since NAVAIDS are an essential part of landing procedures. Precision instrument approach, an operation utilized during the poor visibility conditions, utilizes several of these systems, and their failure leads to holding patterns and ultimately diversions to other airports. These disruptions lead to both ground and airborne delay. Accurate prediction of these outages and their costs is a key prerequisite for successful investment planning. The air traffic management and control sector need accurate information to successfully plan maintenance and develop a more robust system under the threat of increasing lightning rates. To analyze the issue, we couple the Remote Monitoring and Logging System (RMLS) database and the Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM) databases to identify lightning-induced outages, and connect them with weather conditions, demand and landing runway to calculate the total delays induced by the outages, as well as the number of cancellations and diversions. The costs are then determined by calculating direct costs to aircraft operators and costs of passengers' time for delays, cancellations and diversions. The results indicate that 1) not all NAVAIDS are created equal, and 2) outside conditions matter. The cost of an outage depends on the importance of the failed system and the conditions that prevailed before, during and after the failure. The outage that occurs during high demand and poor weather conditions is more likely to result in more delays and higher costs.

10 CFR 501.191 - Use of natural gas or petroleum for certain unanticipated equipment outages and emergencies...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 10 Energy 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Use of natural gas or petroleum for certain unanticipated... Natural Gas or Petroleum for Emergency and Unanticipated Equipment Outage Purposes § 501.191 Use of natural gas or petroleum for certain unanticipated equipment outages and emergencies defined in section...

10 CFR 501.191 - Use of natural gas or petroleum for certain unanticipated equipment outages and emergencies...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 10 Energy 4 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Use of natural gas or petroleum for certain unanticipated... Natural Gas or Petroleum for Emergency and Unanticipated Equipment Outage Purposes § 501.191 Use of natural gas or petroleum for certain unanticipated equipment outages and emergencies defined in section...

47 CFR 4.9 - Outage reporting requirements-threshold criteria.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... call load data for the same day(s) of the week and the same time(s) of day as the outage, and for a... where, for whatever reason, real-time and historic carried call load data are unavailable to the provider, even after a detailed investigation, the provider must determine the carried call load based on...

A RLS-SVM Aided Fusion Methodology for INS during GPS Outages

PubMed Central

Yao, Yiqing; Xu, Xiaosu

2017-01-01

In order to maintain a relatively high accuracy of navigation performance during global positioning system (GPS) outages, a novel robust least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM)-aided fusion methodology is explored to provide the pseudo-GPS position information for the inertial navigation system (INS). The relationship between the yaw, specific force, velocity, and the position increment is modeled. Rather than share the same weight in the traditional LS-SVM, the proposed algorithm allocates various weights for different data, which makes the system immune to the outliers. Field test data was collected to evaluate the proposed algorithm. The comparison results indicate that the proposed algorithm can effectively provide position corrections for standalone INS during the 300 s GPS outage, which outperforms the traditional LS-SVM method. Historical information is also involved to better represent the vehicle dynamics. PMID:28245549

A RLS-SVM Aided Fusion Methodology for INS during GPS Outages.

PubMed

Yao, Yiqing; Xu, Xiaosu

2017-02-24

In order to maintain a relatively high accuracy of navigation performance during global positioning system (GPS) outages, a novel robust least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM)-aided fusion methodology is explored to provide the pseudo-GPS position information for the inertial navigation system (INS). The relationship between the yaw, specific force, velocity, and the position increment is modeled. Rather than share the same weight in the traditional LS-SVM, the proposed algorithm allocates various weights for different data, which makes the system immune to the outliers. Field test data was collected to evaluate the proposed algorithm. The comparison results indicate that the proposed algorithm can effectively provide position corrections for standalone INS during the 300 s GPS outage, which outperforms the traditional LS-SVM method. Historical information is also involved to better represent the vehicle dynamics.

Bulk transmission system component outage data base. Research project 1283-1. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Albrecht, P.F.; Heising, C.R.; Patton, A.D.

1981-04-01

This project is responsive to the premise that the successful analysis of equipment reliability and system adequacy in bulk transmission system planning and system operations requires data on equipment failure rates, maintenance outage rates and repair times. The objective of the project is to develop a system of consistent definitions, formats and procedures which can be used in the collection of such data in a well designed outage data bank. The project consisted of four interrelated phases, beginning with a review of related work and problem definition and ending with a discussion of data base organization and management. The reviewmore » of related work quickly pointed out that two schools of thought exist on data collection. One group contends that data should be collected on bulk transmission system physical equipments, such as transformers, circuit breakers, etc., and the other group supports data collection on functional transmission lines, including the terminal equipment, which have been defined as transmission units in this report. A compromise between these two approaches was imperative for successful completion of the work. The second phase investigated the data needed for reliability evaluation. The applications of the data bank were enumerated leading to a list of basic data needed when recording an incident. Phase 3 concentrated on developing procedures for data collection using forms to collect data both on outages and on the equipment design. Finally, the aspects of data base organization and management were explored and general recommendations made appropriate to this specific application. The project did not succeed in completely defining the procedures, particularly for multiple outages, but the ground work has been laid for a pilot data collection effort to refine the procedures before wide scale implementation by the utility industry.« less

Olkiluoto 1 and 2 - Plant efficiency improvement and lifetime extension-project (PELE) implemented during outages 2010 and 2011

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kosonen, M.; Hakola, M.

2012-07-01

Teollisuuden Voima Oyj (TVO) is a non-listed public company founded in 1969 to produce electricity for its stakeholders. TVO is the operator of the Olkiluoto nuclear power plant. TVO follows the principle of continuous improvement in the operation and maintenance of the Olkiluoto plant units. The PELE project (Plant Efficiency Improvement and Lifetime Extension), mainly completed during the annual outages in 2010 and 2011, and forms one part of the systematic development of Olkiluoto units. TVO maintains a long-term development program that aims at systematically modernizing the plant unit systems and equipment based on the latest technology. According to themore » program, the Olkiluoto 1 and Olkiluoto 2 plant units are constantly renovated with the intention of keeping them safe and reliable, The aim of the modernization projects is to improve the safety, reliability, and performance of the plant units. PELE project at Olkiluoto 1 was done in 2010 and at Olkiluoto 2 in 2011. The outage length of Olkiluoto 1 was 26 d 12 h 4 min and Olkiluoto 2 outage length was 28 d 23 h 46 min. (Normal service-outage is about 14 days including refueling and refueling-outage length is about seven days. See figure 1) The PELE project consisted of several single projects collected into one for coordinated project management. Some of the main projects were as follows: - Low pressure turbines: rotor, stator vane, casing and turbine instrumentation replacement. - Replacement of Condenser Cooling Water (later called seawater pumps) pumps - Replacement of inner isolation valves on the main steam lines. - Generator and the generator cooling system replacement. - Low voltage switchgear replacement. This project will continue during future outages. PELE was a success. 100 TVO employees and 1500 subcontractor employees participated in the project. The execution of the PELE projects went extremely well during the outages. The replacement of the low pressure turbines and seawater pumps

Outage probability of a relay strategy allowing intra-link errors utilizing Slepian-Wolf theorem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Meng; Anwar, Khoirul; Matsumoto, Tad

2013-12-01

In conventional decode-and-forward (DF) one-way relay systems, a data block received at the relay node is discarded, if the information part is found to have errors after decoding. Such errors are referred to as intra-link errors in this article. However, in a setup where the relay forwards data blocks despite possible intra-link errors, the two data blocks, one from the source node and the other from the relay node, are highly correlated because they were transmitted from the same source. In this article, we focus on the outage probability analysis of such a relay transmission system, where source-destination and relay-destination links, Link 1 and Link 2, respectively, are assumed to suffer from the correlated fading variation due to block Rayleigh fading. The intra-link is assumed to be represented by a simple bit-flipping model, where some of the information bits recovered at the relay node are the flipped version of their corresponding original information bits at the source. The correlated bit streams are encoded separately by the source and relay nodes, and transmitted block-by-block to a common destination using different time slots, where the information sequence transmitted over Link 2 may be a noise-corrupted interleaved version of the original sequence. The joint decoding takes place at the destination by exploiting the correlation knowledge of the intra-link (source-relay link). It is shown that the outage probability of the proposed transmission technique can be expressed by a set of double integrals over the admissible rate range, given by the Slepian-Wolf theorem, with respect to the probability density function ( pdf) of the instantaneous signal-to-noise power ratios (SNR) of Link 1 and Link 2. It is found that, with the Slepian-Wolf relay technique, so far as the correlation ρ of the complex fading variation is | ρ|<1, the 2nd order diversity can be achieved only if the two bit streams are fully correlated. This indicates that the diversity

Risk Assessment Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

2011-01-01

Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

Economic and Environmental Impacts of the Columbia-Snake River Extended Lock Outage

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-03-01

This reports main objective is to analyze the change in rates and modal costs for shippers, commodity industries and ports prior to, during and after the fifteen week lock outage and to determine the impacts on the environment in the form of energ...

Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): Transforming the Way We Assess Health Risks

PubMed Central

Williams, Pamela R. D.; Dotson, G. Scott; Maier, Andrew

2016-01-01

Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors. PMID:22938698

A High Resolution Tropical Cyclone Power Outage Forecasting Model for the Continental United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pino, J. V.; Quiring, S. M.; Guikema, S.; Shashaani, S.; Linger, S.; Backhaus, S.

2017-12-01

Tropical cyclones cause extensive damage to the power infrastructure system throughout the United States. This damage can leave millions without power for extended periods of time, as most recently seen with Hurricane Matthew (2016). Accurate and timely prediction of power outages are essential for utility companies, emergency management agencies, and governmental organizations. Here we present a high-resolution (250 m x 250 m) hurricane power outage model for the United States. The model uses only publicly-available data to make predictions. It uses forecasts of storm variables such as maximum 3-second wind gust, duration of strong winds > 20 m s-2, soil moisture, and precipitation. It also incorporates static environmental variables such as elevation characteristics, land cover type, population density, tree species data, and root zone depth. A web tool was established for use by the Department of Energy (DOE) so that the model can be used for real-time outage forecasting or for synthetic tropical cyclones as an exercise in emergency management. This web tool provides DOE decision-makers with high impact analytic results and products that can be disseminated to federal, local, and state agencies. The results then aid utility companies in their pre- and post-storm activities, thus decreasing restoration times and lowering costs.

Method for estimating power outages and restoration during natural and man-made events

DOEpatents

Omitaomu, Olufemi A.; Fernandez, Steven J.

2016-01-05

A method of modeling electric supply and demand with a data processor in combination with a recordable medium, and for estimating spatial distribution of electric power outages and affected populations. A geographic area is divided into cells to form a matrix. Within the matrix, supply cells are identified as containing electric substations and demand cells are identified as including electricity customers. Demand cells of the matrix are associated with the supply cells as a function of the capacity of each of the supply cells and the proximity and/or electricity demand of each of the demand cells. The method includes estimating a power outage by applying disaster event prediction information to the matrix, and estimating power restoration using the supply and demand cell information of the matrix and standardized and historical restoration information.

Recent Performance of and Plasma Outage Studies with the SNS H- Source

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stockli, Martin P; Han, Baoxi; Murray Jr, S N

2016-01-01

SNS ramps to higher power levels that can be sustained with high availability. The goal is 1.4 MW despite a compromised RFQ, which requires higher RF power than design levels to approach the nominal beam transmission. Unfortunately at higher power the RFQ often loses its thermal stability, a problem apparently enhanced by beam losses and high influxes of hydrogen. Delivering as much H- beam as possible with the least amount of hydrogen led to plasma outages. The root cause is the dense 1-ms long ~55-kW 2-MHz plasma pulses reflecting ~90% of the continuous ~300W, 13-MHz power, which was mitigated withmore » a 4-ms filter for the reflected power signal and an outage resistant, slightly-detuned 13-MHz match. Lowering the H2 also increased the H- beam current to ~55 mA, and increased the transmission by ~7%.« less

Monitoring Disaster-Related Power Outages Using NASA Black Marble Nighttime Light Product

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Z.; Román, M. O.; Sun, Q.; Molthan, A. L.; Schultz, L. A.; Kalb, V. L.

2018-04-01

Timely and accurate monitoring of disruptions to the electricity grid, including the magnitude, spatial extent, timing, and duration of net power losses, is needed to improve situational awareness of disaster response and long-term recovery efforts. Satellite-derived Nighttime Lights (NTL) provide an indication of human activity patterns and have been successfully used to monitor disaster-related power outages. The global 500 m spatial resolution National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Black Marble NTL daily standard product suite (VNP46) is generated from Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Day/Night Band (DNB) onboard the NASA/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (Suomi- NPP) satellite, which began operations on 19 January 2012. With its improvements in product accuracy (including critical atmospheric and BRDF correction routines), the VIIRS daily Black Mable product enables systematic monitoring of outage conditions across all stages of the disaster management cycle.

Survey of mental health nurses' attitudes towards risk assessment, risk assessment tools and positive risk.

PubMed

Downes, C; Gill, A; Doyle, L; Morrissey, J; Higgins, A

2016-04-01

WHAT IS KNOWN ON THE SUBJECT?: Risk assessment and safety planning are a core aspect of the role of the mental health nurse. Conflicting views exist on the value of risk assessment tools. Few studies have examined mental health nurses' attitudes towards risk, including use of tools and the role of positive risk in recovery. WHAT THE PAPER ADDS TO EXISTING KNOWLEDGE?: Mental health nurses view risk assessment as a core dimension of their role and not merely an exercise to fulfil organizational clinical safety and governance obligations. The majority of nurses hold positive attitudes towards therapeutic or positive risk, and consider creative risk taking as vital to people's recovery. The majority of nurses believe that risk assessment tools facilitate professional decision making, however, some are concerned that tools may negatively impact upon therapeutic relationships. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE?: Ongoing education on the use of risk assessment tools is required to minimize views that their use is incompatible with therapeutic engagement, and to enable nurses to develop confidence to engage with positive risk and to allow service users make decisions and take responsibility. Introduction Risk assessment and safety planning are considered core components of the role of the mental health nurse; however, little is known about nurses' attitudes towards risk assessment, use of tools to assess risk or therapeutic risk taking. Aim This study aimed to explore mental health nurses' attitudes towards completing risk assessments, use of tools as an aid, and therapeutic or positive risk. Method An anonymous survey which included 13 attitudinal statements, rated on a five-point Likert scale, was completed by 381 mental health nurses working in adult services in Ireland. Findings Findings indicate strong support for the practice of risk assessment in mental health practice. The vast majority of nurses believe that risk assessment tools facilitate professional

Performance of Trellis Coded 256 QAM super-multicarrier modem VLSI's for SDH interface outage-free digital microwave radio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aikawa, Satoru; Nakamura, Yasuhisa; Takanashi, Hitoshi

1994-02-01

This paper describes the performance of an outage free SXH (Synchronous Digital Hierarchy) interface 256 QAM modem. An outage free DMR (Digital Microwave Radio) is achieved by a high coding gain trellis coded SPORT QAM and Super Multicarrier modem. A new frame format and its associated circuits connect the outage free modem to the SDH interface. The newly designed VLSI's are key devices for developing the modem. As an overall modem performance, BER (bit error rate) characteristics and equipment signatures are presented. A coding gain of 4.7 dB (at a BER of 10(exp -4)) is obtained using SPORT 256 QAM and Viterbi decoding. This coding gain is realized by trellis coding as well as by increasing of transmission rate. Roll-off factor is decreased to maintain the same frequency occupation and modulation level as ordinary SDH 256 QAM modern.

[Application of three risk assessment models in occupational health risk assessment of dimethylformamide].

PubMed

Wu, Z J; Xu, B; Jiang, H; Zheng, M; Zhang, M; Zhao, W J; Cheng, J

2016-08-20

Objective: To investigate the application of United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) inhalation risk assessment model, Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model, and occupational hazards risk assessment index method in occupational health risk in enterprises using dimethylformamide (DMF) in a certain area in Jiangsu, China, and to put forward related risk control measures. Methods: The industries involving DMF exposure in Jiangsu province were chosen as the evaluation objects in 2013 and three risk assessment models were used in the evaluation. EPA inhalation risk assessment model: HQ=EC/RfC; Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model: Risk= (HR×ER) 1/2 ; Occupational hazards risk assessment index=2 Health effect level ×2 exposure ratio ×Operation condition level. Results: The results of hazard quotient (HQ>1) from EPA inhalation risk assessment model suggested that all the workshops (dry method, wet method and printing) and work positions (pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting) were high risk. The results of Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model indicated that the workshop risk level of dry method, wet method and printing were 3.5 (high) , 3.5 (high) and 2.8 (general) , and position risk level of pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting were 4 (high) , 4 (high) , 2.8 (general) , 2.8 (general) and 2.8 (general) . The results of occupational hazards risk assessment index method demonstrated that the position risk index of pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting were 42 (high) , 33 (high) , 23 (middle) , 21 (middle) and 22 (middle) . The results of Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model and occupational hazards risk assessment index method were similar, while EPA inhalation risk assessment model indicated all the workshops and positions were high risk. Conclusion: The occupational hazards risk assessment index method fully considers health effects, exposure, and operating conditions

Operational risk assessment.

PubMed

McKim, Vicky L

2017-06-01

In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

A fouling monitor alarm to prevent forced outages

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thompson, R.E.; Hickinbotham, A.; Fang, T.C.

2000-07-01

Many utilities rely on coal blending to meet emissions and boiler performance goals, but the increased variability in coal quality can adversely impact ash deposition and soot blowing requirements. Other utilities are experimenting with lower quality coals and burner zone blending of coals fired from different bunkers as part of a deregulation strategy to reduce fuel costs. However, these strategies can lead to slagging/fouling episodes, a possible outage, or a decrease in unit availability if boiler operations are not carefully monitored. This paper summarizes the development of software to monitor boiler fouling and to provide an advanced warning to themore » control operators when a fouling episode is imminent. With adequate warming, preemptive action can be taken (e.g., soot blowing, a change in coal blend, etc.) to potentially avoid a costly outage. The software utilizes a unique combination of combustion diagnostic techniques and convective section heat adsorption analyses to identify boiler operating conditions where ash deposition rates may be high and conductive to triggering a fouling episode. The paper outlines the history of the fouling problem and the implementation of the software on Wabamun Unit 4, a tangentially-fired unit with relatively narrow reheat tube spacing. The unit had a tendency to foul when burning a high alkaline (but low ash) coal seam. The paper discusses the software development, implementation, and data acquisitions activities. Preliminary test results are provided for Wabamun 4 and for Sundance Units 1 and 2 where the software was recently installed.« less

Hepatitis Risk Assessment

MedlinePlus

... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

Supporting Disaster Assessment and Response with the VIIRS Day-Night Band

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schultz, Lori A.; Cole, Tony; Molthan, Andrew L.

2015-01-01

When meteorological or man-made disasters occur, first responders often focus on impacts to the affected population and other human activities. Often, these disasters result in significant impacts to local infrastructure and power, resulting in widespread power outages. For minor events, these power outages are often short-lived, but major disasters often include long-term outages that have a significant impact on wellness, safety, and recovery efforts within the affected areas. Staff at NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center have been investigating the use of the VIIRS day-night band for monitoring power outages that result from significant disasters, and developing techniques to identify damaged areas in near real-time following events. In addition to immediate assessment, the VIIRS DNB can be used to monitor and assess ongoing recovery efforts. In this presentation, we will highlight previous applications of the VIIRS DNB following Superstorm Sandy in 2012, and other applications of the VIIRS DNB to more recent disaster events, including detection of outages following the Moore, Oklahoma tornado of May 2013 and the Chilean earthquake of April 2014. Examples of current products will be shown, along with future work and other goals for supporting disaster assessment and response with VIIRS capabilities.

Spectrum Sharing in an ISM Band: Outage Performance of a Hybrid DS/FH Spread Spectrum System with Beamforming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Hanyu; Syed, Mubashir; Yao, Yu-Dong; Kamakaris, Theodoros

2009-12-01

This paper investigates spectrum sharing issues in the unlicensed industrial, scientific, and medical (ISM) bands. It presents a radio frequency measurement setup and measurement results in 2.4 GHz. It then develops an analytical model to characterize the coexistence interference in the ISM bands, based on radio frequency measurement results in the 2.4 GHz. Outage performance using the interference model is examined for a hybrid direct-sequence frequency-hopping spread spectrum system. The utilization of beamforming techniques in the system is also investigated, and a simplified beamforming model is proposed to analyze the system performance using beamforming. Numerical results show that beamforming significantly improves the system outage performance. The work presented in this paper provides a quantitative evaluation of signal outages in a spectrum sharing environment. It can be used as a tool in the development process for future dynamic spectrum access models as well as engineering designs for applications in unlicensed bands.

Automatic scheduling of outages of nuclear power plants with time windows. Final report, January-December 1995

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gomes, C.

This report describes a successful project for transference of advanced AI technology into the domain of planning of outages of nuclear power plants as part of DOD`s dual-use program. ROMAN (Rome Lab Outage Manager) is the prototype system that was developed as a result of this project. ROMAN`s main innovation compared to the current state-of-the-art of outage management tools is its capability to automatically enforce safety constraints during the planning and scheduling phase. Another innovative aspect of ROMAN is the generation of more robust schedules that are feasible over time windows. In other words, ROMAN generates a family of schedulesmore » by assigning time intervals as start times to activities rather than single start times, without affecting the overall duration of the project. ROMAN uses a constraint satisfaction paradigm combining a global search tactic with constraint propagation. The derivation of very specialized representations for the constraints to perform efficient propagation is a key aspect for the generation of very fast schedules - constraints are compiled into the code, which is a novel aspect of our work using an automatic programming system, KIDS.« less

GM Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sparrow, Penny A. C.

GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

Schedule Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Greg

2003-01-01

Schedule risk assessments determine the likelihood of finishing on time. Each task in a schedule has a varying degree of probability of being finished on time. A schedule risk assessment quantifies these probabilities by assigning values to each task. This viewgraph presentation contains a flow chart for conducting a schedule risk assessment, and profiles applicable several methods of data analysis.

Critical Assessment of the Foundations of Power Transmission and Distribution Reliability Metrics and Standards.

PubMed

Nateghi, Roshanak; Guikema, Seth D; Wu, Yue Grace; Bruss, C Bayan

2016-01-01

The U.S. federal government regulates the reliability of bulk power systems, while the reliability of power distribution systems is regulated at a state level. In this article, we review the history of regulating electric service reliability and study the existing reliability metrics, indices, and standards for power transmission and distribution networks. We assess the foundations of the reliability standards and metrics, discuss how they are applied to outages caused by large exogenous disturbances such as natural disasters, and investigate whether the standards adequately internalize the impacts of these events. Our reflections shed light on how existing standards conceptualize reliability, question the basis for treating large-scale hazard-induced outages differently from normal daily outages, and discuss whether this conceptualization maps well onto customer expectations. We show that the risk indices for transmission systems used in regulating power system reliability do not adequately capture the risks that transmission systems are prone to, particularly when it comes to low-probability high-impact events. We also point out several shortcomings associated with the way in which regulators require utilities to calculate and report distribution system reliability indices. We offer several recommendations for improving the conceptualization of reliability metrics and standards. We conclude that while the approaches taken in reliability standards have made considerable advances in enhancing the reliability of power systems and may be logical from a utility perspective during normal operation, existing standards do not provide a sufficient incentive structure for the utilities to adequately ensure high levels of reliability for end-users, particularly during large-scale events. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Sampled-data-based vibration control for structural systems with finite-time state constraint and sensor outage.

PubMed

Weng, Falu; Liu, Mingxin; Mao, Weijie; Ding, Yuanchun; Liu, Feifei

2018-05-10

The problem of sampled-data-based vibration control for structural systems with finite-time state constraint and sensor outage is investigated in this paper. The objective of designing controllers is to guarantee the stability and anti-disturbance performance of the closed-loop systems while some sensor outages happen. Firstly, based on matrix transformation, the state-space model of structural systems with sensor outages and uncertainties appearing in the mass, damping and stiffness matrices is established. Secondly, by considering most of those earthquakes or strong winds happen in a very short time, and it is often the peak values make the structures damaged, the finite-time stability analysis method is introduced to constrain the state responses in a given time interval, and the H-infinity stability is adopted in the controller design to make sure that the closed-loop system has a prescribed level of disturbance attenuation performance during the whole control process. Furthermore, all stabilization conditions are expressed in the forms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs), whose feasibility can be easily checked by using the LMI Toolbox. Finally, numerical examples are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed theorems. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Average BER and outage probability of the ground-to-train OWC link in turbulence with rain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yixin; Yang, Yanqiu; Hu, Beibei; Yu, Lin; Hu, Zheng-Da

2017-09-01

The bit-error rate (BER) and outage probability of optical wireless communication (OWC) link for the ground-to-train of the curved track in turbulence with rain is evaluated. Considering the re-modulation effects of raining fluctuation on optical signal modulated by turbulence, we set up the models of average BER and outage probability in the present of pointing errors, based on the double inverse Gaussian (IG) statistical distribution model. The numerical results indicate that, for the same covered track length, the larger curvature radius increases the outage probability and average BER. The performance of the OWC link in turbulence with rain is limited mainly by the rain rate and pointing errors which are induced by the beam wander and train vibration. The effect of the rain rate on the performance of the link is more severe than the atmospheric turbulence, but the fluctuation owing to the atmospheric turbulence affects the laser beam propagation more greatly than the skewness of the rain distribution. Besides, the turbulence-induced beam wander has a more significant impact on the system in heavier rain. We can choose the size of transmitting and receiving apertures and improve the shockproof performance of the tracks to optimize the communication performance of the system.

Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

PubMed

2012-01-01

Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

Placement of Synchronized Measurements for Power System Observability during Cascaded Outages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thirugnanasambandam, Venkatesh; Jain, Trapti

2017-11-01

Cascaded outages often result in power system islanding followed by a blackout and therefore considered as a severe disturbance. Maintaining the observability of each island may help in taking proper control actions to preserve the stability of individual islands thus, averting system collapse. With this intent, a strategy for placement of synchronized measurements, which can be obtained from phasor measurement units (PMU), has been proposed in this paper to keep the system observable during cascaded outages also. Since, all the cascaded failures may not lead to islanding situations, therefore, failures leading to islanding as well as non-islanding situations have been considered. A topology based algorithm has been developed to identify the islanding/non-islanding condition created by a particular cascaded event. Additional contingencies such as single line loss and single PMU failure have also been considered after the occurrence of cascaded events. The proposed method is further extended to incorporate the measurement redundancy, which is desirable for a reliable state estimation. The proposed scheme is tested on IEEE 14-bus, IEEE 30-bus and a practical Indian 246-bus networks. The numerical results ensure the observability of the power system under system intact as well as during cascaded islanding and non-islanding disturbances.

Risk Assessment in Criminal Sentencing.

PubMed

Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

2016-01-01

The past several years have seen a surge of interest in using risk assessment in criminal sentencing, both to reduce recidivism by incapacitating or treating high-risk offenders and to reduce prison populations by diverting low-risk offenders from prison. We begin by sketching jurisprudential theories of sentencing, distinguishing those that rely on risk assessment from those that preclude it. We then characterize and illustrate the varying roles that risk assessment may play in the sentencing process. We clarify questions regarding the various meanings of "risk" in sentencing and the appropriate time to assess the risk of convicted offenders. We conclude by addressing four principal problems confronting risk assessment in sentencing: conflating risk and blame, barring individual inferences based on group data, failing adequately to distinguish risk assessment from risk reduction, and ignoring whether, and if so, how, the use of risk assessment in sentencing affects racial and economic disparities in imprisonment.

2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Caskey, Susan Adele; Gaudioso, Jennifer M.; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson

2010-10-01

Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it tomore » be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.« less

Risk Assessment

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

2006-01-01

Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

Development of an Agent Based Model to Estimate and Reduce Time to Restoration of Storm Induced Power Outages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, T.; Layton, T.; Mellor, J. E.

2017-12-01

Storm damage to the electric grid impacts 23 million electric utility customers and costs US consumers $119 billion annually. Current restoration techniques rely on the past experiences of emergency managers. There are few analytical simulation and prediction tools available for utility managers to optimize storm recovery and decrease consumer cost, lost revenue and restoration time. We developed an agent based model (ABM) for storm recovery in Connecticut. An ABM is a computer modeling technique comprised of agents who are given certain behavioral rules and operate in a given environment. It allows the user to simulate complex systems by varying user-defined parameters to study emergent, unpredicted behavior. The ABM incorporates the road network and electric utility grid for the state, is validated using actual storm event recoveries and utilizes the Dijkstra routing algorithm to determine the best path for repair crews to travel between outages. The ABM has benefits for both researchers and utility managers. It can simulate complex system dynamics, rank variable importance, find tipping points that could significantly reduce restoration time or costs and test a broad range of scenarios. It is a modular, scalable and adaptable technique that can simulate scenarios in silico to inform emergency managers before and during storm events to optimize restoration strategies and better manage expectations of when power will be restored. Results indicate that total restoration time is strongly dependent on the number of crews. However, there is a threshold whereby more crews will not decrease the restoration time, which depends on the total number of outages. The addition of outside crews is more beneficial for storms with a higher number of outages. The time to restoration increases linearly with increasing repair time, while the travel speed has little overall effect on total restoration time. Crews traveling to the nearest outage reduces the total restoration time

The optical communication link outage probability in satellite formation flying

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnon, Shlomi; Gill, Eberhard

2014-02-01

In recent years, several space systems consisting of multiple satellites flying in close formation have been proposed for various purposes such as interferometric synthetic aperture radar measurement (TerraSAR-X and the TanDEM-X), detecting extra-solar earth-like planets (Terrestrial Planet Finder-TPF and Darwin), and demonstrating distributed space systems (DARPA F6 project). Another important purpose, which is the concern of this paper, is for improving radio frequency communication to mobile terrestrial and maritime subscribers. In this case, radio frequency signals from several satellites coherently combine such that the received/transmit signal strength is increased proportionally with the number of satellites in the formation. This increase in signal strength allows to enhance the communication data rate and/or to reduce energy consumption and the antenna size of terrestrial mobile users' equipment. However, a coherent combination of signals without aligning the phases of the individual communication signals interrupts the communication and outage link between the satellites and the user. The accuracy of the phase estimation is a function of the inter-satellite laser ranging system performance. This paper derives an outage probability model of a coherent combination communication system as a function of the pointing vibration and jitter statistics of an inter-satellite laser ranging system tool. The coherent combination probability model, which could be used to improve the communication to mobile subscribers in air, sea and ground is the main importance of this work.

Outage Performance Analysis of Relay Selection Schemes in Wireless Energy Harvesting Cooperative Networks over Non-Identical Rayleigh Fading Channels.

PubMed

Do, Nhu Tri; Bao, Vo Nguyen Quoc; An, Beongku

2016-02-26

In this paper, we study relay selection in decode-and-forward wireless energy harvesting cooperative networks. In contrast to conventional cooperative networks, the relays harvest energy from the source's radio-frequency radiation and then use that energy to forward the source information. Considering power splitting receiver architecture used at relays to harvest energy, we are concerned with the performance of two popular relay selection schemes, namely, partial relay selection (PRS) scheme and optimal relay selection (ORS) scheme. In particular, we analyze the system performance in terms of outage probability (OP) over independent and non-identical (i.n.i.d.) Rayleigh fading channels. We derive the closed-form approximations for the system outage probabilities of both schemes and validate the analysis by the Monte-Carlo simulation. The numerical results provide comprehensive performance comparison between the PRS and ORS schemes and reveal the effect of wireless energy harvesting on the outage performances of both schemes. Additionally, we also show the advantages and drawbacks of the wireless energy harvesting cooperative networks and compare to the conventional cooperative networks.

Chemical Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

Landslide risk assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lessing, P.; Messina, C.P.; Fonner, R.F.

1983-01-01

Landslide risk can be assessed by evaluating geological conditions associated with past events. A sample of 2,4 16 slides from urban areas in West Virginia, each with 12 associated geological factors, has been analyzed using SAS computer methods. In addition, selected data have been normalized to account for areal distribution of rock formations, soil series, and slope percents. Final calculations yield landslide risk assessments of 1.50=high risk. The simplicity of the method provides for a rapid, initial assessment prior to financial investment. However, it does not replace on-site investigations, nor excuse poor construction. ?? 1983 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

78 FR 6216 - Extension of the Commission's Rules Regarding Outage Reporting to Interconnected Voice Over...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-01-30

... FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION 47 CFR Part 4 [PS Docket No. 11-82; DA 12-1962] Extension of the Commission's Rules Regarding Outage Reporting to Interconnected Voice Over Internet Protocol Service Providers and Broadband Internet Service Providers AGENCY: Federal Communications Commission. ACTION: Final...

[Cardiovascular Risk Assessment: preliminary results].

PubMed

Palmieri, Luigi; Rielli, Rita; Demattè, Luca; Donfrancesco, Chiara; La Terza, Giampaolo; De Sanctis Caiola, Patrizia; Dima, Francesco; Lo Noce, Cinzia; Giannelli, Anna Maria; Brignoli, Ovidio; Cuffari, Alfredo; De Rosa, Marisa; Addis, Antonio; Laurendi, Giovanna; Giampaoli, Simona

2010-02-01

The Italian National Prevention plan includes 10-year cardiovascular risk (CR) assessment of the Italian general population aged 35-69 years using the CUORE Project risk score. A national training program for general practitioners (GPs) was launched by the Ministry of Health in 2003. GPs were encouraged to collect data on risk factors and risk assessment and to contribute to the CUORE Project Cardiovascular Risk Observatory (CRO). The aim of this analysis is to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of risk assessment in primary care. The cuore.exe software, free of charge for GPs and easily downloadable from the CUORE Project web site (www.cuore.iss.it), is the frame for the GP data collection. The CRO provides a platform to analyze data collected on risk assessment and risk factors, and compare results at regional and national level in order to support health policy makers in their decision process. From January 2007 to April 2009, 2858 GPs have downloaded the cuore.exe software; 102,113 risk assessments were sent to the CRO based on risk factors profile of 87,556 persons (3617 persons had more than 1 risk assessment). Mean level of CR was 3.1% in women and 8.4% in men; 30% of men and 65% of women were at low risk (CR < 3%), 9% of men and 0.4% of women were found at high risk (CR > or = 20%). Among those with at least 2 risk assessments, 8% shifted to a lower class of risk after 1 year. Mean level of systolic and diastolic blood pressure decreased by about 1% in 1 year; total cholesterol more than 2%, and prevalence of smokers decreased by about 3% in the second risk assessment. These data demonstrate that risk assessment can be included as a first step of prevention in primary care. The CUORE Project individual score is expected to become an important tool for GPs to assess their patients' CR, to promote primary prevention, and to focus attention to healthy lifestyle adoption.

Uncertainty and sensitivity assessment of flood risk assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Moel, H.; Aerts, J. C.

2009-12-01

Floods are one of the most frequent and costly natural disasters. In order to protect human lifes and valuable assets from the effect of floods many defensive structures have been build. Despite these efforts economic losses due to catastrophic flood events have, however, risen substantially during the past couple of decades because of continuing economic developments in flood prone areas. On top of that, climate change is expected to affect the magnitude and frequency of flood events. Because these ongoing trends are expected to continue, a transition can be observed in various countries to move from a protective flood management approach to a more risk based flood management approach. In a risk based approach, flood risk assessments play an important role in supporting decision making. Most flood risk assessments assess flood risks in monetary terms (damage estimated for specific situations or expected annual damage) in order to feed cost-benefit analysis of management measures. Such flood risk assessments contain, however, considerable uncertainties. This is the result from uncertainties in the many different input parameters propagating through the risk assessment and accumulating in the final estimate. Whilst common in some other disciplines, as with integrated assessment models, full uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of flood risk assessments are not so common. Various studies have addressed uncertainties regarding flood risk assessments, but have mainly focussed on the hydrological conditions. However, uncertainties in other components of the risk assessment, like the relation between water depth and monetary damage, can be substantial as well. This research therefore tries to assess the uncertainties of all components of monetary flood risk assessments, using a Monte Carlo based approach. Furthermore, the total uncertainty will also be attributed to the different input parameters using a variance based sensitivity analysis. Assessing and visualizing the

RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENTS - RESIDUAL RISK ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This source category previously subjected to a technology-based standard will be examined to determine if health or ecological risks are significant enough to warrant further regulation for Coke Ovens. These assesments utilize existing models and data bases to examine the multi-media and multi-pollutant impacts of air toxics emissions on human health and the environment. Details on the assessment process and methodologies can be found in EPA's Residual Risk Report to Congress issued in March of 1999 (see web site). To assess the health risks imposed by air toxics emissions from Coke Ovens to determine if control technology standards previously established are adequately protecting public health.

Risk Assessment: Evidence Base

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson-Throop, Kathy A.

2007-01-01

Human systems PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment: a) Provides quantitative measures of probability, consequence, and uncertainty; and b) Communicates risk and informs decision-making. Human health risks rated highest in ISS PRA are based on 1997 assessment of clinical events in analog operational settings. Much work remains to analyze remaining human health risks identified in Bioastronautics Roadmap.

77 FR 25088 - Extension of the Commission's Rules Regarding Outage Reporting to Interconnected Voice Over...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-04-27

... Commission's rules to interconnected Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) service providers and defers action... to outages resulting from complete loss of service and only to interconnected VoIP services... obligations of interconnected VoIP service providers. DATES: The rules in this document contain information...

Worldwide OMEGA and Very Low Frequency (VLF) Transmitter Outages, January to December 1980.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-05-01

WORLDWIDE OMEGA AND VERY LOW FREQUENCY IVLF) TRANSMITTER OUTAGE--ETC, MAY 81 L RZONCA ,’,L.ASSI LED FAA-CT-81-26 FAA-RD- B1 -29 UL7 A-I’ l15FDRL AIO...computer for the time period GBR - Rugby , England (16.00 kHz) January to December 1980. (For the purposes of this report, any downtime NA - Cutler, Maine

Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment provide EPA staff with guidance for developing and using risk assessments. They also provide basic information to the public about the Agency's risk assessment methods.

Different type 2 diabetes risk assessments predict dissimilar numbers at 'high risk': a retrospective analysis of diabetes risk-assessment tools.

PubMed

Gray, Benjamin J; Bracken, Richard M; Turner, Daniel; Morgan, Kerry; Thomas, Michael; Williams, Sally P; Williams, Meurig; Rice, Sam; Stephens, Jeffrey W

2015-12-01

Use of a validated risk-assessment tool to identify individuals at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes is currently recommended. It is under-reported, however, whether a different risk tool alters the predicted risk of an individual. This study explored any differences between commonly used validated risk-assessment tools for type 2 diabetes. Cross-sectional analysis of individuals who participated in a workplace-based risk assessment in Carmarthenshire, South Wales. Retrospective analysis of 676 individuals (389 females and 287 males) who participated in a workplace-based diabetes risk-assessment initiative. Ten-year risk of type 2 diabetes was predicted using the validated QDiabetes(®), Leicester Risk Assessment (LRA), FINDRISC, and Cambridge Risk Score (CRS) algorithms. Differences between the risk-assessment tools were apparent following retrospective analysis of individuals. CRS categorised the highest proportion (13.6%) of individuals at 'high risk' followed by FINDRISC (6.6%), QDiabetes (6.1%), and, finally, the LRA was the most conservative risk tool (3.1%). Following further analysis by sex, over one-quarter of males were categorised at high risk using CRS (25.4%), whereas a greater percentage of females were categorised as high risk using FINDRISC (7.8%). The adoption of a different valid risk-assessment tool can alter the predicted risk of an individual and caution should be used to identify those individuals who really are at high risk of type 2 diabetes. © British Journal of General Practice 2015.

Outage Performance Analysis of Relay Selection Schemes in Wireless Energy Harvesting Cooperative Networks over Non-Identical Rayleigh Fading Channels †

PubMed Central

Do, Nhu Tri; Bao, Vo Nguyen Quoc; An, Beongku

2016-01-01

In this paper, we study relay selection in decode-and-forward wireless energy harvesting cooperative networks. In contrast to conventional cooperative networks, the relays harvest energy from the source’s radio-frequency radiation and then use that energy to forward the source information. Considering power splitting receiver architecture used at relays to harvest energy, we are concerned with the performance of two popular relay selection schemes, namely, partial relay selection (PRS) scheme and optimal relay selection (ORS) scheme. In particular, we analyze the system performance in terms of outage probability (OP) over independent and non-identical (i.n.i.d.) Rayleigh fading channels. We derive the closed-form approximations for the system outage probabilities of both schemes and validate the analysis by the Monte-Carlo simulation. The numerical results provide comprehensive performance comparison between the PRS and ORS schemes and reveal the effect of wireless energy harvesting on the outage performances of both schemes. Additionally, we also show the advantages and drawbacks of the wireless energy harvesting cooperative networks and compare to the conventional cooperative networks. PMID:26927119

Microbial Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ott, C. M.; Mena, K. D.; Nickerson, C.A.; Pierson, D. L.

2009-01-01

Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose

Strategic Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

2009-01-01

This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

Assessments of direct human exposure: the approach of EU risk assessments compared to scenario-based risk assessment.

PubMed

Wormuth, Matthias; Demou, Evangelia; Scheringer, Martin; Hungerbühler, Konrad

2007-08-01

The awareness of potential risks emerging from the use of chemicals in all parts of daily life has increased the need for risk assessments that are able to cover a high number of exposure situations and thereby ensure the safety of workers and consumers. In the European Union (EU), the practice of risk assessments for chemicals is laid down in a Technical Guidance Document; it is designed to consider environmental and human occupational and residential exposure. Almost 70 EU risk assessment reports (RARs) have been finalized for high-production-volume chemicals during the last decade. In the present study, we analyze the assessment of occupational and consumer exposure to trichloroethylene and phthalates presented in six EU RARs. Exposure scenarios in these six RARs were compared to scenarios used in applications of the scenario-based risk assessment approach to the same set of chemicals. We find that scenarios used in the selected EU RARs to represent typical exposure situations in occupational or private use of chemicals and products do not necessarily represent worst-case conditions. This can be due to the use of outdated information on technical equipment and conditions in workplaces or omission of pathways that can cause consumer exposure. Considering the need for exposure and risk assessments under the new chemicals legislation of the EU, we suggest that a transparent process of collecting data on exposure situations and of generating representative exposure scenarios is implemented to improve the accuracy of risk assessments. Also, the data sets used to assess human exposure should be harmonized, summarized in a transparent fashion, and made accessible for all risk assessors and the public.

[Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

PubMed

Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

2014-03-01

With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

Recent performance of and plasma outage studies with the SNS H{sup −} source

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stockli, M. P., E-mail: stockli@ornl.gov; Han, B.; Murray, S. N.

2016-02-15

Spallation Neutron Source ramps to higher power levels that can be sustained with high availability. The goal is 1.4 MW despite a compromised radio frequency quadrupole (RFQ), which requires higher radio frequency power than design levels to approach the nominal beam transmission. Unfortunately at higher power the RFQ often loses its thermal stability, a problem apparently enhanced by beam losses and high influxes of hydrogen. Delivering as much H{sup −} beam as possible with the least amount of hydrogen led to plasma outages. The root cause is the dense 1-ms long ∼55-kW 2-MHz plasma pulses reflecting ∼90% of the continuousmore » ∼300 W, 13-MHz power, which was mitigated with a 4-ms filter for the reflected power signal and an outage resistant, slightly detuned 13-MHz match. Lowering the H{sub 2} gas also increased the H{sup −} beam current to ∼55 mA and increased the RFQ transmission by ∼7% (relative)« less

[Forensic assessment of violence risk].

PubMed

Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

2014-03-01

Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

Principles in genetic risk assessment.

PubMed

Baptista, Pedro Viana

2005-03-01

Risk assessment constitutes an essential component of genetic counseling and testing, and the genetic risk should be estimated as accurately as possible for individual and family decision making. All relevant information retrieved from population studies and pedigree and genetic testing enhances the accuracy of the assessment of an individual's genetic risk. This review will focus on the following general aspects implicated in risk assessment: the increasing genetic information regarding disease; complex traits versus Mendelian disorders; and the influence of the environment and disease susceptibility. The influence of these factors on risk assessment will be discussed.

Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edwards, Michelle

2010-01-01

Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

Principles in genetic risk assessment

PubMed Central

Baptista, Pedro Viana

2005-01-01

Risk assessment constitutes an essential component of genetic counseling and testing, and the genetic risk should be estimated as accurately as possible for individual and family decision making. All relevant information retrieved from population studies and pedigree and genetic testing enhances the accuracy of the assessment of an individual's genetic risk. This review will focus on the following general aspects implicated in risk assessment: the increasing genetic information regarding disease; complex traits versus Mendelian disorders; and the influence of the environment and disease susceptibility. The influence of these factors on risk assessment will be discussed. PMID:18360538

Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

PubMed

Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

2015-01-01

Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

PubMed Central

Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

2015-01-01

Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schwalbe, Craig S.

2009-01-01

The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

Risk assessment and prioritization

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2003-01-01

The first step to take in order to prevent and minimize the dangers of disasters or attacks, is risk assessment, followed closely by prioritization. This article discusses key vulnerability and risk assessment that Volpe Center has conducted in suppo...

FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING RISKS OF ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Framework for Children's Health Risk Assessment report can serve as a resource on children's health risk assessment and it addresses the need to provide a comprehensive and consistent framework for considering children in risk assessments at EPA. This framework lays out the process, points to existing published sources for more detailed information on life stage-specific considerations, and includes web links to specific online publications and relevant Agency science policy papers, guidelines and guidance. The document emphasizes the need to take into account the potential exposures to environmental agents during preconception and all stages of development and focuses on the relevant adverse health outcomes that may occur as a result of such exposures. This framework is not an Agency guideline, but rather describes the overall structure and the components considered important for children's health risk assessment. The document describes an approach that includes problem formulation, analysis, and risk characterization, and also builds on Agency experience assessing risk to susceptible populations. The problem formulation step focuses on the life stage-specific nature of the analysis to include scoping and screening level questions for hazard characterization, dose response and exposure assessment. The risk characterization step recognizes the need to consider life stage-specific risks and explicitly describes the uncertainties and variability in the d

An Internet of Things Approach to Electrical Power Monitoring and Outage Reporting

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Koch, Daniel B

The so-called Internet of Things concept has captured much attention recently as ordinary devices are connected to the Internet for monitoring and control purposes. One enabling technology is the proliferation of low-cost, single board computers with built-in network interfaces. Some of these are capable of hosting full-fledged operating systems that provide rich programming environments. Taken together, these features enable inexpensive solutions for even traditional tasks such as the one presented here for electrical power monitoring and outage reporting.

Using risk assessment in periodontics.

PubMed

Woodman, Alan J

2014-08-01

Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

Cancer Risk Assessment Primer.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aidala, Jim

1985-01-01

Describes the scientific basis of cancer risk assessment, outlining the dominant controversies surrounding the use of different methods for identifying carcinogens (short-term tests, animal bioassays, and epidemiological studies). Points out that risk assessment is as much an art as it is a science. (DH)

Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

PubMed Central

Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

2016-01-01

The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

2017-04-01

The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

47 CFR 4.7 - Definitions of metrics used to determine the general outage-reporting threshold criteria.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Definitions of metrics used to determine the general outage-reporting threshold criteria. 4.7 Section 4.7 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION GENERAL DISRUPTIONS TO COMMUNICATIONS Reporting Requirements for Disruptions to Communications § 4.7 Definitions of metrics used to...

47 CFR 4.7 - Definitions of metrics used to determine the general outage-reporting threshold criteria.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Definitions of metrics used to determine the general outage-reporting threshold criteria. 4.7 Section 4.7 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION GENERAL DISRUPTIONS TO COMMUNICATIONS Reporting Requirements for Disruptions to Communications § 4.7 Definitions of metrics used to...

47 CFR 4.7 - Definitions of metrics used to determine the general outage-reporting threshold criteria.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Definitions of metrics used to determine the general outage-reporting threshold criteria. 4.7 Section 4.7 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION GENERAL DISRUPTIONS TO COMMUNICATIONS Reporting Requirements for Disruptions to Communications § 4.7 Definitions of metrics used to...

47 CFR 4.7 - Definitions of metrics used to determine the general outage-reporting threshold criteria.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Definitions of metrics used to determine the general outage-reporting threshold criteria. 4.7 Section 4.7 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION GENERAL DISRUPTIONS TO COMMUNICATIONS Reporting Requirements for Disruptions to Communications § 4.7 Definitions of metrics used to...

GAR Global Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

2015-04-01

Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

Assessing Uncertainty in Risk Assessment Models (BOSC CSS meeting)

EPA Science Inventory

In vitro assays are increasingly being used in risk assessments Uncertainty in assays leads to uncertainty in models used for risk assessments. This poster assesses uncertainty in the ER and AR models.

Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

Cancer.gov

The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

Northwest Climate Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mote, P.; Dalton, M. M.; Snover, A. K.

2012-12-01

As part of the US National Climate Assessment, the Northwest region undertook a process of climate risk assessment. This process included an expert evaluation of previously identified impacts, their likelihoods, and consequences, and engaged experts from both academia and natural resource management practice (federal, tribal, state, local, private, and non-profit) in a workshop setting. An important input was a list of 11 risks compiled by state agencies in Oregon and similar adaptation efforts in Washington. By considering jointly the likelihoods, consequences, and adaptive capacity, participants arrived at an approximately ranked list of risks which was further assessed and prioritized through a series of risk scoring exercises to arrive at the top three climate risks facing the Northwest: 1) changes in amount and timing of streamflow related to snowmelt, causing far-reaching ecological and socioeconomic consequences; 2) coastal erosion and inundation, and changing ocean acidity, combined with low adaptive capacity in the coastal zone to create large risks; and 3) the combined effects of wildfire, insect outbreaks, and diseases will cause large areas of forest mortality and long-term transformation of forest landscapes.

Evaluation of the resilience of a full-scale down-flow hanging sponge reactor to long-term outages at a sewage treatment plant in India.

PubMed

Onodera, Takashi; Takayama, Daisuke; Ohashi, Akiyoshi; Yamaguchi, Takashi; Uemura, Shigeki; Harada, Hideki

2016-10-01

Resilience to process outages is an essential requirement for sustainable wastewater treatment systems in developing countries. In this study, we evaluated the ability of a full-scale down-flow hanging sponge (DHS) reactor to recover after a 10-day outage. The DHS tested in this study uses polyurethane sponge as packing material. This full-scale DHS reactor has been tested over a period of about 4 years in India with a flow rate of 500 m(3)/day. Water was not supplied to the DHS reactor that was subjected to the 10-day outage; however, the biomass did not dry out because the sponge was able to retain enough water. Soon after the reactor was restarted, a small quantity of biomass, amounting to only 0.1% of the total retained biomass, was eluted. The DHS effluent achieved satisfactory removal of suspended solids, chemical oxygen demand, and ammonium nitrogen within 90, 45, and 90 min, respectively. Conversely, fecal coliforms in the DHS effluent did not reach satisfactory levels within 540 min; instead, the normal levels of fecal coliforms were achieved within 3 days. Overall, the tests demonstrated that the DHS reactor was sufficiently robust to withstand long-term outages and achieved steady state soon after restart. This reinforces the suitability of this technology for developing countries. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Advances in risk assessment and communication.

PubMed

Goldstein, Bernard D

2005-01-01

Risk analysis continues to evolve. There is increasing depth and breadth to each component of the four-step risk-assessment paradigm of hazard identification, dose-response analysis, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Basic conceptual approaches to understanding how people perceive risk are being tested against a growing body of empirical observations, many involving stakeholders. Emerging ideas such as the precautionary principle have provided challenges that have led to a rethinking of the role of risk assessment in environmental health. Newer problems, such as intergenerational issues posed by long-lasting radiation pollution, environmental justice, and the assessment and communication of risks related to terrorism, have spurred innovative approaches to risk analysis.

Schedule Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Greg

2003-01-01

Schedule Risk Assessment needs to determine the probability of finishing on or before a given point in time. Task in a schedule should reflect the "most likely" duration for each task. IN reality, each task is different and has a varying degree of probability of finishing within or after the duration specified. Schedule risk assessment attempt to quantify these probabilities by assigning values to each task. Bridges the gap between CPM scheduling and the project's need to know the likelihood of "when".

Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

MedlinePlus

... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

Integrating Risk Context into Risk Assessments: The Risk Context Scale

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kroner, Daryl G.; Gray, Andrew L.; Goodrich, Ben

2013-01-01

The context in which offenders are released is an important component of conducting risk assessments. A sample of 257 supervised male parolees were followed in the community ("M" = 870 days) after an initial risk assessment. Drawing on community-based information, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the recently developed Risk…

Public Risk Assessment Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mendeck, Gavin

2010-01-01

The Public Entry Risk Assessment (PERA) program addresses risk to the public from shuttle or other spacecraft re-entry trajectories. Managing public risk to acceptable levels is a major component of safe spacecraft operation. PERA is given scenario inputs of vehicle trajectory, probability of failure along that trajectory, the resulting debris characteristics, and field size and distribution, and returns risk metrics that quantify the individual and collective risk posed by that scenario. Due to the large volume of data required to perform such a risk analysis, PERA was designed to streamline the analysis process by using innovative mathematical analysis of the risk assessment equations. Real-time analysis in the event of a shuttle contingency operation, such as damage to the Orbiter, is possible because PERA allows for a change to the probability of failure models, therefore providing a much quicker estimation of public risk. PERA also provides the ability to generate movie files showing how the entry risk changes as the entry develops. PERA was designed to streamline the computation of the enormous amounts of data needed for this type of risk assessment by using an average distribution of debris on the ground, rather than pinpointing the impact point of every piece of debris. This has reduced the amount of computational time significantly without reducing the accuracy of the results. PERA was written in MATLAB; a compiled version can run from a DOS or UNIX prompt.

Values in science and risk assessment.

PubMed

Wandall, Birgitte

2004-09-25

It is a widely accepted claim that scientific practice contains value judgments, i.e. decisions made on the basis of values. This paper clarifies the concepts involved in this claim and explains its implications for risk assessment. It is explained why values are necessarily a part of science and of risk assessment. A certain type of values that contribute to the aim of science, so-called epistemic values, are identified as rationally justified as basis for judgment in science. It is argued that the aims of pure science and risk assessment differ in some aspects and that consequently pure science's epistemic values are not sufficient for risk assessment. I suggest how the epistemic values may be supplemented in order to align better with the aim of risk assessment. It is concluded that since risk assessment is no less value-laden than pure science, it is important (a) that risk assessors become aware of what values they are (often implicitly) relying on, (b) that the values are justifiable, and (c) that transparency is ensured, i.e. that the values and value-based assumptions applied in particular risk assessments are explicitly acknowledged.

Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

MedlinePlus

... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

Ecosystem Services as Assessment Endpoints in Ecological Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

The focus of ecological risk assessment (ERA) is on assessment endpoints, explicit expressions of environmental values to be protected. Traditionally, the ecological entities identified in assessment endpoints have been components of ecosystems deemed by risk assessors to be impo...

10 CFR 501.191 - Use of natural gas or petroleum for certain unanticipated equipment outages and emergencies...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... from an electric power outage and directly effects or would directly effect the public health, safety... curtailment. Note—A utility operating hydroelectric facilities may take into account seasonal fluctuations in storage capacity and shall be permitted to prevent depletion of stored power-producing capacity as deemed...

10 CFR 501.191 - Use of natural gas or petroleum for certain unanticipated equipment outages and emergencies...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... from an electric power outage and directly effects or would directly effect the public health, safety... curtailment. Note—A utility operating hydroelectric facilities may take into account seasonal fluctuations in storage capacity and shall be permitted to prevent depletion of stored power-producing capacity as deemed...

10 CFR 501.191 - Use of natural gas or petroleum for certain unanticipated equipment outages and emergencies...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... from an electric power outage and directly effects or would directly effect the public health, safety... curtailment. Note—A utility operating hydroelectric facilities may take into account seasonal fluctuations in storage capacity and shall be permitted to prevent depletion of stored power-producing capacity as deemed...

AN ASSESSMENT OF INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT (Journal Article)

EPA Science Inventory

In order to promote international understanding and acceptance of the integrated risk assessment process, the WHO/IPCS, in collaboration with the U.S. EPA and the OECD, initiated a number of activities related to integrated risk assessment. In this project, WHO/IPCS defines inte...

Exploiting Outage and Error Probability of Cooperative Incremental Relaying in Underwater Wireless Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Nasir, Hina; Javaid, Nadeem; Sher, Muhammad; Qasim, Umar; Khan, Zahoor Ali; Alrajeh, Nabil; Niaz, Iftikhar Azim

2016-01-01

This paper embeds a bi-fold contribution for Underwater Wireless Sensor Networks (UWSNs); performance analysis of incremental relaying in terms of outage and error probability, and based on the analysis proposition of two new cooperative routing protocols. Subject to the first contribution, a three step procedure is carried out; a system model is presented, the number of available relays are determined, and based on cooperative incremental retransmission methodology, closed-form expressions for outage and error probability are derived. Subject to the second contribution, Adaptive Cooperation in Energy (ACE) efficient depth based routing and Enhanced-ACE (E-ACE) are presented. In the proposed model, feedback mechanism indicates success or failure of data transmission. If direct transmission is successful, there is no need for relaying by cooperative relay nodes. In case of failure, all the available relays retransmit the data one by one till the desired signal quality is achieved at destination. Simulation results show that the ACE and E-ACE significantly improves network performance, i.e., throughput, when compared with other incremental relaying protocols like Cooperative Automatic Repeat reQuest (CARQ). E-ACE and ACE achieve 69% and 63% more throughput respectively as compared to CARQ in hard underwater environment. PMID:27420061

The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

PubMed Central

Bos, Peter M. J.; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J.; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F.; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J. G. M.; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C. E.; Oomen, Agnes G.

2015-01-01

An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy. PMID:26633430

The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

PubMed

Bos, Peter M J; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C E; Oomen, Agnes G

2015-11-27

An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

2013-01-01

This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

Energy markets : refinery outages can have varying gasoline price impacts, but gaps in federal data limit understanding of impacts.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-07-01

In 2008, GAO reported that, with : the exception of the period : following Hurricanes Katrina and : Rita, refinery outages in the United : States did not show discernible : trends in reduced production : capacity, frequency, and location : from 2002 ...

Probabilistic Risk Assessment: A Bibliography

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2000-01-01

Probabilistic risk analysis is an integration of failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), fault tree analysis and other techniques to assess the potential for failure and to find ways to reduce risk. This bibliography references 160 documents in the NASA STI Database that contain the major concepts, probabilistic risk assessment, risk and probability theory, in the basic index or major subject terms, An abstract is included with most citations, followed by the applicable subject terms.

Framework for Metals Risk Assessment

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Framework for Metals Risk Assessment is a science-based document that addresses the special attributes and behaviors of metals and metal compounds to be considered when assessing their human health and ecological risks.

Risk-Based Contaminated Land Investigation and Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Donald R.

With increasing frequency, problems of environmental contamination are being analyzed from a risk perspective. Risk-Based Contaminated Land Investigation and Assessment is written for those who wish to present the results of their examination of contaminated land in terms of risk.The opening chapters introduce the concepts of risk analysis for contaminated land. Risk management and the risk assessment process are based on a source-pathway-target framework. Readers are warned against an “over-reliance on the identification of contaminants rather than the potential pathways by which targets may be exposed to these hazards.” In the risk management framework presented in this book, risk evaluation and resultant decision making are seen as part of both the risk assessment and risk reduction process. The sharp separation of risk assessment from risk management as seen in the National Academy of Sciences' (NAS) risk assessment paradigm is not advocatedsemi; perhaps this is because the NAS' concern was regulatory decision while the book's concern is the assessment of a specific site.

RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: MAGNETIC TAPE ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Magnetic Tape Manufacturing source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Magnetic Tape Manufacturing source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This is the first step in a long-term effort to develop risk assessment guidelines for ecological effects. Its primary purpose is to offer a simple, flexible structure for conducting and evaluating ecological risk assessment within EPA.

Risk assessment instruments in clinical practice.

PubMed

Côté, Gilles; Crocker, Anne G; Nicholls, Tonia L; Seto, Michael C

2012-04-01

To determine whether the items in one of the most widely validated instruments of violence risk assessment, the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20), are used in review board hearings to assess the risk of violence by people found Not Criminally Responsible on account of Mental Disorder (NCRMD). This study was conducted from October 2004 to August 2006 in Quebec's sole forensic psychiatric hospital and 2 large civil psychiatric hospitals designated for the care of people declared NCRMD in the Montreal metropolitan area. The risk assessments presented by clinicians at annual review board hearings and the boards' rationale for the release or detention of people found NCRMD were contrasted with the risk assessments conducted by the research team using the HCR-20. The final sample was comprised of 96 men. Very few of the risk factors identified by prior research (HCR-20 items) were mentioned in the hearing process, whether in clinical reports, discussions during the hearing, or in the disposition justification. The findings confirm that there remains a significant gap between research evidence and risk assessment practice.

Fact Sheet: Assessing Risks from Flame Retardants

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA's assessing and managing risk programs address pollution prevention, risk assessment, hazard and exposure assessment and/or characterization, and risk management for chemicals substances in commercial use.

RISK ASSESSMENT FOR BENEFITS ANALYSIS

EPA Science Inventory

Among the important types of information considered in decision making at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) are the outputs of risk assessments and benefit-cost analyses. Risk assessments present estimates of the adverse consequences of exposure to environmental poll...

Ecosystem Risk Assessment Using the Comprehensive Assessment of Risk to Ecosystems (CARE) Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battista, W.; Fujita, R.; Karr, K.

2016-12-01

Effective Ecosystem Based Management requires a localized understanding of the health and functioning of a given system as well as of the various factors that may threaten the ongoing ability of the system to support the provision of valued services. Several risk assessment models are available that can provide a scientific basis for understanding these factors and for guiding management action, but these models focus mainly on single species and evaluate only the impacts of fishing in detail. We have developed a new ecosystem risk assessment model - the Comprehensive Assessment of Risk to Ecosystems (CARE) - that allows analysts to consider the cumulative impact of multiple threats, interactions among multiple threats that may result in synergistic or antagonistic impacts, and the impacts of a suite of threats on whole-ecosystem productivity and functioning, as well as on specific ecosystem services. The CARE model was designed to be completed in as little as two hours, and uses local and expert knowledge where data are lacking. The CARE tool can be used to evaluate risks facing a single site; to compare multiple sites for the suitability or necessity of different management options; or to evaluate the effects of a proposed management action aimed at reducing one or more risks. This analysis can help users identify which threats are the most important at a given site, and therefore where limited management resources should be targeted. CARE can be applied to virtually any system, and can be modified as knowledge is gained or to better match different site characteristics. CARE builds on previous ecosystem risk assessment tools to provide a comprehensive assessment of fishing and non-fishing threats that can be used to inform environmental management decisions across a broad range of systems.

Ecosystem Risk Assessment Using the Comprehensive Assessment of Risk to Ecosystems (CARE) Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battista, W.; Fujita, R.; Karr, K.

2016-02-01

Effective Ecosystem Based Management requires a localized understanding of the health and functioning of a given system as well as of the various factors that may threaten the ongoing ability of the system to support the provision of valued services. Several risk assessment models are available that can provide a scientific basis for understanding these factors and for guiding management action, but these models focus mainly on single species and evaluate only the impacts of fishing in detail. We have developed a new ecosystem risk assessment model - the Comprehensive Assessment of Risk to Ecosystems (CARE) - that allows analysts to consider the cumulative impact of multiple threats, interactions among multiple threats that may result in synergistic or antagonistic impacts, and the impacts of a suite of threats on whole-ecosystem productivity and functioning, as well as on specific ecosystem services. The CARE model was designed to be completed in as little as two hours, and uses local and expert knowledge where data are lacking. The CARE tool can be used to evaluate risks facing a single site; to compare multiple sites for the suitability or necessity of different management options; or to evaluate the effects of a proposed management action aimed at reducing one or more risks. This analysis can help users identify which threats are the most important at a given site, and therefore where limited management resources should be targeted. CARE can be applied to virtually any system, and can be modified as knowledge is gained or to better match different site characteristics. CARE builds on previous ecosystem risk assessment tools to provide a comprehensive assessment of fishing and non-fishing threats that can be used to inform environmental management decisions across a broad range of systems.

Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tan, Zhibin (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor)

2001-01-01

A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

Risk Assessment for Stonecutting Enterprises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aleksandrova, A. J.; Timofeeva, S. S.

2017-04-01

Working conditions at enterprises and artisanal workshops for the processing of jewelry and ornamental stones were considered. The main stages of the technological process for processing of stone raw materials were shown; dangerous processes in the extraction of stone and its processing were identified. The characteristic of harmful and dangerous production factors affecting stonecutters is given. It was revealed that the most dangerous are the increased level of noise and vibration, as well as chemical reagents. The results of a special assessment of the working conditions of stone-cutting plant workers are studied. Professions with high professional risk were identified; an analysis of occupational risks and occupational injuries was carried out. Risk assessment was produced by several methods; professions with high and medium risk indicators were identified by results of the evaluation. The application of risk assessment methods was given the possibility to justify rational measures reducing risks to the lowest possible level. The received quantitative indicators of risk of workers of the stone-cutting enterprises are the result of this work.

Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

PubMed

Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

2016-07-01

Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

Resources for global risk assessment: the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) and Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) databases.

PubMed

Wullenweber, Andrea; Kroner, Oliver; Kohrman, Melissa; Maier, Andrew; Dourson, Michael; Rak, Andrew; Wexler, Philip; Tomljanovic, Chuck

2008-11-15

The rate of chemical synthesis and use has outpaced the development of risk values and the resolution of risk assessment methodology questions. In addition, available risk values derived by different organizations may vary due to scientific judgments, mission of the organization, or use of more recently published data. Further, each organization derives values for a unique chemical list so it can be challenging to locate data on a given chemical. Two Internet resources are available to address these issues. First, the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) database (www.tera.org/iter) provides chronic human health risk assessment data from a variety of organizations worldwide in a side-by-side format, explains differences in risk values derived by different organizations, and links directly to each organization's website for more detailed information. It is also the only database that includes risk information from independent parties whose risk values have undergone independent peer review. Second, the Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) is a database of in progress chemical risk assessment work, and includes non-chemical information related to human health risk assessment, such as training modules, white papers and risk documents. RiskIE is available at http://www.allianceforrisk.org/RiskIE.htm, and will join ITER on National Library of Medicine's TOXNET (http://toxnet.nlm.nih.gov/). Together, ITER and RiskIE provide risk assessors essential tools for easily identifying and comparing available risk data, for sharing in progress assessments, and for enhancing interaction among risk assessment groups to decrease duplication of effort and to harmonize risk assessment procedures across organizations.

Using toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic modeling as an acute risk assessment refinement approach in vertebrate ecological risk assessment.

PubMed

Ducrot, Virginie; Ashauer, Roman; Bednarska, Agnieszka J; Hinarejos, Silvia; Thorbek, Pernille; Weyman, Gabriel

2016-01-01

Recent guidance identified toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TK-TD) modeling as a relevant approach for risk assessment refinement. Yet, its added value compared to other refinement options is not detailed, and how to conduct the modeling appropriately is not explained. This case study addresses these issues through 2 examples of individual-level risk assessment for 2 hypothetical plant protection products: 1) evaluating the risk for small granivorous birds and small omnivorous mammals of a single application, as a seed treatment in winter cereals, and 2) evaluating the risk for fish after a pulsed treatment in the edge-of-field zone. Using acute test data, we conducted the first tier risk assessment as defined in the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) guidance. When first tier risk assessment highlighted a concern, refinement options were discussed. Cases where the use of models should be preferred over other existing refinement approaches were highlighted. We then practically conducted the risk assessment refinement by using 2 different models as examples. In example 1, a TK model accounting for toxicokinetics and relevant feeding patterns in the skylark and in the wood mouse was used to predict internal doses of the hypothetical active ingredient in individuals, based on relevant feeding patterns in an in-crop situation, and identify the residue levels leading to mortality. In example 2, a TK-TD model accounting for toxicokinetics, toxicodynamics, and relevant exposure patterns in the fathead minnow was used to predict the time-course of fish survival for relevant FOCUS SW exposure scenarios and identify which scenarios might lead to mortality. Models were calibrated using available standard data and implemented to simulate the time-course of internal dose of active ingredient or survival for different exposure scenarios. Simulation results were discussed and used to derive the risk assessment refinement endpoints used for decision. Finally, we compared the

Using Rapid Improvement Events for Disaster After-Action Reviews: Experience in a Hospital Information Technology Outage and Response.

PubMed

Little, Charles M; McStay, Christopher; Oeth, Justin; Koehler, April; Bookman, Kelly

2018-02-01

The use of after-action reviews (AARs) following major emergency events, such as a disaster, is common and mandated for hospitals and similar organizations. There is a recurrent challenge of identified problems not being resolved and repeated in subsequent events. A process improvement technique called a rapid improvement event (RIE) was used to conduct an AAR following a complete information technology (IT) outage at a large urban hospital. Using RIE methodology to conduct the AAR allowed for the rapid development and implementation of major process improvements to prepare for future IT downtime events. Thus, process improvement methodology, particularly the RIE, is suited for conducting AARs following disasters and holds promise for improving outcomes in emergency management. Little CM , McStay C , Oeth J , Koehler A , Bookman K . Using rapid improvement events for disaster after-action reviews: experience in a hospital information technology outage and response. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2018;33(1):98-100.

Summary Report: Risk Assessment Forum Technical Workshop on Population-level Ecological Risk Assessment

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

2008 technical workshop regarding development of additional guidelines or best practices for planning, implementing and interpreting ecological risk assessments that involve population-level assessment endpoints.

Assessment and management of risk for intimate partner violence by police officers using the Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide.

PubMed

Belfrage, Henrik; Strand, Susanne; Storey, Jennifer E; Gibas, Andrea L; Kropp, P Randall; Hart, Stephen D

2012-02-01

Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a crime that is present in all countries, seriously impacts victims, and demands a great deal of time and resources from the criminal justice system. The current study examined the use of the Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide, 2nd ed. (SARA; Kropp, Hart, Webster, & Eaves, 1995), a structured professional judgment risk assessment and management tool for IPV, by police officers in Sweden over a follow-up of 18 months. SARA risk assessments had significant predictive validity with respect to risk management recommendations made by police, as well as with recidivism as indexed by subsequent contacts with police. Risk management mediated the association between risk assessment and recidivism: High levels of intervention were associated with decreased recidivism in high risk cases, but with increased recidivism in low risk cases. The findings support the potential utility of police-based risk assessment and management of IPV, and in particular the belief that appropriately structured risk assessment and management decisions can prevent violence. (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

Assessing and Managing Risk with Suicidal Individuals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Linehan, Marsh M.; Comtois, Katherine A.; Ward-Ciesielski, Erin F.

2012-01-01

The University of Washington Risk Assessment Protocol (UWRAP) and Risk Assessment and Management Protocol (UWRAMP) have been used in numerous clinical trials treating high-risk suicidal individuals over several years. These protocols structure assessors and treatment providers to provide a thorough suicide risk assessment, review standards of care…

Panel 2: anticipatory risk assessment: identifying, assessing, and mitigating exposure risks before they occur.

PubMed

Guidotti, Tee L; Pacha, Laura

2011-07-01

Health threats place the military mission and deployed service members at risk. A commander's focus is on preventing acute health risks, such as diarrhea, because these quickly compromise the mission. However, in recent conflicts chronic and long-term illness risks have emerged as concerns. Department of Defense and Joint Chiefs of Staff mandates require documentation of exposures and environmental conditions to reconstruct exposures and evaluate future health risks. Current processes for identifying and assessing hazards, including identification and assessment before deployment and in time to take action to prevent or reduce exposures, when followed, are generally adequate for known hazards. Identifying and addressing novel, unexpected risks remain challenges. Armed conflicts are associated with rapidly changing conditions, making ongoing hazard identification and assessment difficult. Therefore, surveillance of the environment for hazards and surveillance of personnel for morbidity must be practiced at all times. Communication of risk information to decision makers is critical but problematic. Preventive Medicine (PM) personnel should take responsibility for communicating this information to non-PM military medical people and to military commanders. Communication of risks identified and lessons learned between PM personnel of different military units is extremely important when one military unit replaces another in a deployed environment.

Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

2017-04-01

Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

Assessing the Relative Risk of Aerocapture Using Probabalistic Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Percy, Thomas K.; Bright, Ellanee; Torres, Abel O.

2005-01-01

A recent study performed for the Aerocapture Technology Area in the In-Space Propulsion Technology Projects Office at the Marshall Space Flight Center investigated the relative risk of various capture techniques for Mars missions. Aerocapture has been proposed as a possible capture technique for future Mars missions but has been perceived by many in the community as a higher risk option as compared to aerobraking and propulsive capture. By performing a probabilistic risk assessment on aerocapture, aerobraking and propulsive capture, a comparison was made to uncover the projected relative risks of these three maneuvers. For mission planners, this knowledge will allow them to decide if the mass savings provided by aerocapture warrant any incremental risk exposure. The study focuses on a Mars Sample Return mission currently under investigation at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). In each case (propulsive, aerobraking and aerocapture), the Earth return vehicle is inserted into Martian orbit by one of the three techniques being investigated. A baseline spacecraft was established through initial sizing exercises performed by JPL's Team X. While Team X design results provided the baseline and common thread between the spacecraft, in each case the Team X results were supplemented by historical data as needed. Propulsion, thermal protection, guidance, navigation and control, software, solar arrays, navigation and targeting and atmospheric prediction were investigated. A qualitative assessment of human reliability was also included. Results show that different risk drivers contribute significantly to each capture technique. For aerocapture, the significant drivers include propulsion system failures and atmospheric prediction errors. Software and guidance hardware contribute the most to aerobraking risk. Propulsive capture risk is mainly driven by anomalous solar array degradation and propulsion system failures. While each subsystem contributes differently to the risk of

Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

2012-01-01

Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

PubMed

Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

2008-07-01

The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

Assessing nanoparticle risk poses prodigious challenges.

PubMed

MacPhail, Robert C; Grulke, Eric A; Yokel, Robert A

2013-01-01

Risk assessment is used both formally and informally to estimate the likelihood of an adverse event occurring, for example, as a consequence of exposure to a hazardous chemical, drug, or other agent. Formal risk assessments in government regulatory agencies have a long history of practice. The precision with which risk can be estimated is inevitably constrained, however, by uncertainties arising from the lack of pertinent data. Developing accurate risk assessments for nanoparticles and nanoparticle-containing products may present further challenges because of the unique properties of the particles, uncertainties about their composition and the populations exposed to them, and how these may change throughout the particle's life cycle. This review introduces the evolving practice of risk assessment followed by some of the uncertainties that need to be addressed to improve our understanding of nanoparticle risks. Given the clarion call for life-cycle assessments of nanoparticles, an unprecedented degree of national and international coordination between scientific organizations, regulatory agencies, and stakeholders will be required to achieve this goal. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Protective Controller against Cascade Outages with Selective Harmonic Compensation Function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abramovich, B. N.; Kuznetsov, P. A.; Sychev, Yu A.

2018-05-01

The paper presents data on the power quality and development of protective devices for the power networks with distributed generation (DG).The research has shown that power quality requirements for DG networks differ from conventional ones. That is why main tendencies, protective equipment and filters should be modified. There isa developed algorithm for detection and prevention of cascade outages that can lead to the blackoutin DG networks and there was a proposed structural scheme for a new active power filter for selective harmonics compensation. Analysis of these theories and equipment led to the development of protective device that could monitor power balance and cut off non-important consumers. The last part of the article describes a microcontroller prototype developed for connection to the existing power station control center.

Pollinator Risk Assessment Guidance

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This Guidance is part of a long-term strategy to advance the science of assessing the risks posed by pesticides to honey bees, giving risk managers the means to further improve pollinator protection in our regulatory decisions.

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de; Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C.; Renn, Ortwin

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the socialmore » impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.« less

Risk assessment [Chapter 9

Treesearch

Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

2014-01-01

What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

National-scale Assessment of Air Toxics Risks

EPA Science Inventory

The national-scale assessment of air toxics risks is a modeling assessment which combines emission inventory development, atmospheric fate and transport modeling, exposure modeling, and risk assessment to characterize the risk associated with inhaling air toxics from outdoor sour...

A risk assessment approach for fresh fruits.

PubMed

Bassett, J; McClure, P

2008-04-01

To describe the approach used in conducting a fit-for-purpose risk assessment of microbiological human pathogens associated with fresh fruit and the risk management recommendations made. A qualitative risk assessment for microbiological hazards in fresh fruit was carried out based on the Codex Alimentarius (Codex) framework, modified to consider multiple hazards and all fresh (whole) fruits. The assessment determines 14 significant bacterial, viral, protozoal and nematodal hazards associated with fresh produce, assesses the probable level of exposure from fresh fruit, concludes on the risk from each hazard, and considers and recommends risk management actions. A review of potential risk management options allowed the comparison of effectiveness with the potential exposure to each hazard. Washing to a recommended protocol is an appropriate risk management action for the vast majority of consumption events, particularly when good agricultural and hygienic practices are followed and with the addition of refrigerated storage for low acid fruit. Additional safeguards are recommended for aggregate fruits with respect to the risk from protozoa. The potentially complex process of assessing the risks of multiple hazards in multiple but similar commodities can be simplified in a qualitative assessment approach that employs the Codex methodology.

OPPT workplan risk assessment Methylene Chloride ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

These assessments will focus on the use of DCM and NMP in paint stripping. NMP exposures scenarios for this use result in inhalation and dermal exposure to consumers and workers. The low concern for environmental effects of NMP will be discussed in the assessment. In the case of DCM, there are human health concerns for both cancer and non-cancer effects. This DCM assessment of paint stripping uses will focus only on inhalation exposure to consumers and workers. The low concern for environmental effects of DCM will be discussed in the assessment. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

Advantages of new cardiovascular risk-assessment strategies in high-risk patients with hypertension.

PubMed

Ruilope, Luis M; Segura, Julian

2005-10-01

Accurate assessment of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in patients with hypertension is important when planning appropriate treatment of modifiable risk factors. The causes of CVD are multifactorial, and hypertension seldom exists as an isolated risk factor. Classic models of risk assessment are more accurate than a simple counting of risk factors, but they are not generalizable to all populations. In addition, the risk associated with hypertension is graded, continuous, and independent of other risk factors, and this is not reflected in classic models of risk assessment. This article is intended to review both classic and newer models of CVD risk assessment. MEDLINE was searched for articles published between 1990 and 2005 that contained the terms cardiovascular disease, hypertension, or risk assessment. Articles describing major clinical trials, new data about cardiovascular risk, or global risk stratification were selected for review. Some patients at high long-term risk for CVD events (eg, patients aged <50 years with multiple risk factors) may go untreated because they do not meet the absolute risk-intervention threshold of 20% risk over 10 years with the classic model. Recognition of the limitations of classic risk-assessment models led to new guidelines, particularly those of the European Society of Hypertension-European Society of Cardiology. These guidelines view hypertension as one of many risk and disease factors that require treatment to decrease risk. These newer guidelines include a more comprehensive range of risk factors and more finely graded blood pressure ranges to stratify patients by degree of risk. Whether they accurately predict CVD risk in most populations is not known. Evidence from the Valsartan Antihypertensive Long-term Use Evaluation (VALUE) study, which stratified patients by several risk and disease factors, highlights the predictive value of some newer CVD risk assessments. Modern risk assessments, which include blood pressure

[Regional atmospheric environment risk source identification and assessment].

PubMed

Zhang, Xiao-Chun; Chen, Wei-Ping; Ma, Chun; Zhan, Shui-Fen; Jiao, Wen-Tao

2012-12-01

Identification and assessment for atmospheric environment risk source plays an important role in regional atmospheric risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control. The likelihood exposure and consequence assessment method (LEC method) and the Delphi method were employed to build a fast and effective method for identification and assessment of regional atmospheric environment risk sources. This method was applied to the case study of a large coal transportation port in North China. The assessment results showed that the risk characteristics and the harm degree of regional atmospheric environment risk source were in line with the actual situation. Fast and effective identification and assessment of risk source has laid an important foundation for the regional atmospheric environmental risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control.

Health risk assessments for alumina refineries.

PubMed

Donoghue, A Michael; Coffey, Patrick S

2014-05-01

To describe contemporary air dispersion modeling and health risk assessment methodologies applied to alumina refineries and to summarize recent results. Air dispersion models using emission source and meteorological data have been used to assess ground-level concentrations (GLCs) of refinery emissions. Short-term (1-hour and 24-hour average) GLCs and annual average GLCs have been used to assess acute health, chronic health, and incremental carcinogenic risks. The acute hazard index can exceed 1 close to refineries, but it is typically less than 1 at neighboring residential locations. The chronic hazard index is typically substantially less than 1. The incremental carcinogenic risk is typically less than 10(-6). The risks of acute health effects are adequately controlled, and the risks of chronic health effects and incremental carcinogenic risks are negligible around referenced alumina refineries.

OPPT workplan risk assessment for Trichloroethylene ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The assessment will focus on uses of TCE as a degreaser and in consumer products used by individuals in the arts/crafts field. Given the range of endpoints (cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), it is expected that susceptible populations would be children (as bystanders physically near the actual consumer use of the products) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women). Thus, the assessment will focus on all human/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Grand Gulf, Unit 1. Volume 5: Analysis of core damage frequency from seismic events for plant operational state 5 during a refueling outage

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Budnitz, R.J.; Davis, P.R.; Ravindra, M.K.

In 1989 the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated an extensive program to examine carefully the potential risks during low-power and shutdown operations. The program included two parallel projects, one at Sandia National Laboratories studying a boiling water reactor (Grand Gulf), and the other at Brookhaven National Laboratory studying a pressurized water reactor (Surry Unit 1). Both the Sandia and Brookhaven projects have examined only accidents initiated by internal plant faults---so-called ``internal initiators.`` This project, which has explored the likelihood of seismic-initiated core damage accidents during refueling outage conditions, is complementary to the internal-initiator analyses at Brookhaven and Sandia. Thismore » report covers the seismic analysis at Grand Gulf. All of the many systems modeling assumptions, component non-seismic failure rates, and human effort rates that were used in the internal-initiator study at Grand Gulf have been adopted here, so that the results of the study can be as comparable as possible. Both the Sandia study and this study examine only one shutdown plant operating state (POS) at Grand Gulf, namely POS 5 representing cold shutdown during a refueling outage. This analysis has been limited to work analogous to a level-1 seismic PRA, in which estimates have been developed for the core-damage frequency from seismic events during POS 5. The results of the analysis are that the core-damage frequency for earthquake-initiated accidents during refueling outages in POS 5 is found to be quite low in absolute terms, less than 10{sup {minus}7}/year.« less

Fall risk assessment and prevention.

PubMed

Kline, Nancy E; Davis, Mary Elizabeth; Thom, Bridgette

2011-02-01

Patient falls are a common cause of morbidity and are the leading cause of injury deaths in adults age 65 years and older. Injuries sustained as result of falls in a cancer hospital are often severe, regardless of patient age, due to the nature of the underlying cancer. Falls are a nursing-sensitive indicator and nurses are in a unique position to assess, design, implement, and evaluate programs for fall risk reduction. We analyzed our nursing processes related to falls and fall prevention in conjunction with an evidence-based review, a research study to improve our fall risk-assessment process, and development of a comprehensive fall-reduction program. This article outlines how our institution developed a fall risk assessment for the oncology patient population, and utilized this assessment in a comprehensive nursing approach to fall prevention in both inpatient and outpatient settings.

Risk assessment of carcinogens in food.

PubMed

Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

2010-03-01

Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a "margin of exposure" approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barlow, Susan, E-mail: suebarlow@mistral.co.u; Schlatter, Josef; Federal Office of Public Health, Consumer Protection Directorate, Stauffacherstrasse 101, CH-8004 Zuerich

2010-03-01

Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitudemore » below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.« less

Common-Cause Failure Treatment in Event Assessment: Basis for a Proposed New Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dana Kelly; Song-Hua Shen; Gary DeMoss

2010-06-01

Event assessment is an application of probabilistic risk assessment in which observed equipment failures and outages are mapped into the risk model to obtain a numerical estimate of the event’s risk significance. In this paper, we focus on retrospective assessments to estimate the risk significance of degraded conditions such as equipment failure accompanied by a deficiency in a process such as maintenance practices. In modeling such events, the basic events in the risk model that are associated with observed failures and other off-normal situations are typically configured to be failed, while those associated with observed successes and unchallenged components aremore » assumed capable of failing, typically with their baseline probabilities. This is referred to as the failure memory approach to event assessment. The conditioning of common-cause failure probabilities for the common cause component group associated with the observed component failure is particularly important, as it is insufficient to simply leave these probabilities at their baseline values, and doing so may result in a significant underestimate of risk significance for the event. Past work in this area has focused on the mathematics of the adjustment. In this paper, we review the Basic Parameter Model for common-cause failure, which underlies most current risk modelling, discuss the limitations of this model with respect to event assessment, and introduce a proposed new framework for common-cause failure, which uses a Bayesian network to model underlying causes of failure, and which has the potential to overcome the limitations of the Basic Parameter Model with respect to event assessment.« less

Health Risk Assessments for Alumina Refineries

PubMed Central

Coffey, Patrick S.

2014-01-01

Objective: To describe contemporary air dispersion modeling and health risk assessment methodologies applied to alumina refineries and to summarize recent results. Methods: Air dispersion models using emission source and meteorological data have been used to assess ground-level concentrations (GLCs) of refinery emissions. Short-term (1-hour and 24-hour average) GLCs and annual average GLCs have been used to assess acute health, chronic health, and incremental carcinogenic risks. Results: The acute hazard index can exceed 1 close to refineries, but it is typically less than 1 at neighboring residential locations. The chronic hazard index is typically substantially less than 1. The incremental carcinogenic risk is typically less than 10−6. Conclusions: The risks of acute health effects are adequately controlled, and the risks of chronic health effects and incremental carcinogenic risks are negligible around referenced alumina refineries. PMID:24806721

Emergency preparedness for power outages and wi-fi loss: tips for students and educators of online courses.

PubMed

Heithaus, Teresa

2015-01-01

Severe weather can impact online education due to a loss of power and Internet access that can last hours or weeks. Planning for such losses is essential to enable participation in the online classroom. This article discusses measures that can be used to maintain an online presence in the event of a power outage or loss of Wi-Fi. Copyright 2015, SLACK Incorporated.

Scale models: A proven cost-effective tool for outage planning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, R.; Segroves, R.

1995-03-01

As generation costs for operating nuclear stations have risen, more nuclear utilities have initiated efforts to improve cost effectiveness. Nuclear plant owners are also being challenged with lower radiation exposure limits and new revised radiation protection related regulations (10 CFR 20), which places further stress on their budgets. As source term reduction activities continue to lower radiation fields, reducing the amount of time spent in radiation fields becomes one of the most cost-effective ways of reducing radiation exposure. An effective approach for minimizing time spent in radiation areas is to use a physical scale model for worker orientation planning andmore » monitoring maintenance, modifications, and outage activities. To meet the challenge of continued reduction in the annual cumulative radiation exposures, new cost-effective tools are required. One field-tested and proven tool is the physical scale model.« less

Ethics and transparent risk communication start with proper risk assessment methodologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oboni, Franco; Oboni, Cesar

2014-05-01

We will use throught this paper a "dialogue" between two professionals. One is aware of the misleading character of many risk assessments and wants to foster better approaches. A discomforting set of statements sets the background of the "story": public reactions to risk assessments are generally negative, the developer find it difficult to understand the reasons for general public negative reactions, many projects get often rejected without valid reasons by the public, anywhere in the world. Common practice approaches in Risk Assessment are discussed from the angle of public rejection, taking into account various studies that explicitly expose common practices limitations and voids. The hiatus between rational and well-balanced risk assessments and common practices is explored. Finally solutions to overcome the limitations of common practices and deliver to the public more realistic risk assessment on which to build a widespread consensus are reviewed. The paper conclusions relate to the need of: properly communicating risk throughout the life of a project, from cradle to grave, avoiding conflict of interest, having estimates that are understandable to foster good understanding of what a risk assessment can bring to better Human existence, in an ethical and fair way. The paper delivers a list of possible remedies and shows that "Common Practices" do not equate to "Best Practices": common practices are not to be proposed/used any longer if we want to avoid public distrust and misrepresentations. Many of the "modern" issues ranging from public distrust to insurance denial could be relieved or mitigated ahead of time if misrepresentation was kept at bay using five simple rules. Common practice Risk Assessments, especially those developed under conflict of interest situations, generally misrepresent risks and fail to give the "big picture", hence do not help taking valid decision and are prone to generating/fostering public distrust.

Insurance World in Transition: Changes in Global Risk Taking and Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy

2015-04-01

Catastrophe insurance risk assessment, risk taking, and regulation has evolved over the last 20 years and is gearing up for significant further change in the years ahead. Changes in regulation and influx of capital have put profit margins for catastrophe risk products under pressure despite the fact that changes in climate as well as increasing insurance penetration is expected to heighten demand. As a result, reinsurance strategies are moving away from catastrophe risk. In addition, lower margins require cheaper and more efficient risk assessment methods and processes which are contrary to evolving analytical tools and methods that had increased expenses in line with growing margins over the last decade. New capital providers are less familiar with and less willing to accept complex supply chains for risk management, relationship-driven business and tedious data exchange and management processes. Risk takers claim new measures and ask for more flexibility in the use of tools. The current concepts of catastrophe insurance risk assessment are hence under thorough scrutiny. This presentation deals with the changing landscape in catastrophe insurance risk assessment and risk hedging and discusses changes in catastrophe risk assessment products and demand. How likely is it that private, small and nimble hazard and risk consulting groups - increasingly emanating from larger science organizations - will replace large established firms in their role to assess risk? What role do public-private academic partnerships play in assuming risk for catastrophe insurance and what role could they play in the future? What are the opportunities and downsides of the current changes in risk taking and hedging? What is needed from the scientific community in order to fill the gaps in risk management and who is likely to take advantage of the current changes?

Cheese Microbial Risk Assessments — A Review

PubMed Central

Choi, Kyoung-Hee; Lee, Heeyoung; Lee, Soomin; Kim, Sejeong; Yoon, Yohan

2016-01-01

Cheese is generally considered a safe and nutritious food, but foodborne illnesses linked to cheese consumption have occurred in many countries. Several microbial risk assessments related to Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli infections, causing cheese-related foodborne illnesses, have been conducted. Although the assessments of microbial risk in soft and low moisture cheeses such as semi-hard and hard cheeses have been accomplished, it has been more focused on the correlations between pathogenic bacteria and soft cheese, because cheese-associated foodborne illnesses have been attributed to the consumption of soft cheeses. As a part of this microbial risk assessment, predictive models have been developed to describe the relationship between several factors (pH, Aw, starter culture, and time) and the fates of foodborne pathogens in cheese. Predictions from these studies have been used for microbial risk assessment as a part of exposure assessment. These microbial risk assessments have identified that risk increased in cheese with high moisture content, especially for raw milk cheese, but the risk can be reduced by preharvest and postharvest preventions. For accurate quantitative microbial risk assessment, more data including interventions such as curd cooking conditions (temperature and time) and ripening period should be available for predictive models developed with cheese, cheese consumption amounts and cheese intake frequency data as well as more dose-response models. PMID:26950859

Chemical Mixtures Health Risk Assessment: Overview of Exposure Assessment, Whole Mixtures Assessments; Basic Concepts

EPA Science Inventory

This problems-based, half-day, introductory workshop focuses on methods to assess health risks posed by exposures to chemical mixtures in the environment. Chemical mixtures health risk assessment methods continue to be developed and evolve to address concerns over health risks f...

Army Independent Risk Assessment Guidebook

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-04-01

17 5.4.2 Step 2: Gather relevant technology and alternative information............... 17 5.4.3 Step 3: Secure SME support for readiness...level assessment. ................... 17 5.4.4 Step 4: SMEs assess TRL, IRL, and MRL for each technology. .............. 17 5.4.5 Step 5: Identify...technical risks, risk ratings, and mitigations. .................. 20 5.4.6 Step 6: SMEs identify key technologies

Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jamali, K.; Stack, D.W.; Sullivan, L.H.

1997-08-01

This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities andmore » that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, `ensuring` plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is `safe.` Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude.« less

Falls risk assessment in older patients in hospital.

PubMed

Matarese, Maria; Ivziku, Dhurata

2016-07-27

Falls are the most frequent adverse event reported in hospitals, usually affecting older patients. All hospitals in NHS organisations develop risk prevention policies that include falls risk assessment. Falls risk assessment involves the use of risk screening tools, aimed at identifying patients at increased risk of falls, and risk assessment tools, which identify a patient's risk factors for falls. Various risk screening tools have been used in clinical practice, but no single tool is able to identify all patients at risk of falls or to accurately exclude all those who are not at risk of falls. Guidelines recommend that patients aged 65 years and over who are admitted to hospital should be considered at high risk of falls and that a multifactorial falls risk assessment should be performed. Therefore, falls risk assessment tools should be used to identify the risk factors for each inpatient aged 65 years or over, in order to determine the most appropriate care plan for falls prevention and to maximise patient mobility and independence.

RISK AND RISK ASSESSMENT IN WATER-BASED RECREATION

EPA Science Inventory

The great number of individuals using recreational water resources presents a challenge with regard to protecting the health of these recreationists. Risk assessment provides a framework for characterizing the risk associated with exposure to microbial hazards and for managing r...

Different type 2 diabetes risk assessments predict dissimilar numbers at ‘high risk’: a retrospective analysis of diabetes risk-assessment tools

PubMed Central

Gray, Benjamin J; Bracken, Richard M; Turner, Daniel; Morgan, Kerry; Thomas, Michael; Williams, Sally P; Williams, Meurig; Rice, Sam; Stephens, Jeffrey W

2015-01-01

Background Use of a validated risk-assessment tool to identify individuals at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes is currently recommended. It is under-reported, however, whether a different risk tool alters the predicted risk of an individual. Aim This study explored any differences between commonly used validated risk-assessment tools for type 2 diabetes. Design and setting Cross-sectional analysis of individuals who participated in a workplace-based risk assessment in Carmarthenshire, South Wales. Method Retrospective analysis of 676 individuals (389 females and 287 males) who participated in a workplace-based diabetes risk-assessment initiative. Ten-year risk of type 2 diabetes was predicted using the validated QDiabetes®, Leicester Risk Assessment (LRA), FINDRISC, and Cambridge Risk Score (CRS) algorithms. Results Differences between the risk-assessment tools were apparent following retrospective analysis of individuals. CRS categorised the highest proportion (13.6%) of individuals at ‘high risk’ followed by FINDRISC (6.6%), QDiabetes (6.1%), and, finally, the LRA was the most conservative risk tool (3.1%). Following further analysis by sex, over one-quarter of males were categorised at high risk using CRS (25.4%), whereas a greater percentage of females were categorised as high risk using FINDRISC (7.8%). Conclusion The adoption of a different valid risk-assessment tool can alter the predicted risk of an individual and caution should be used to identify those individuals who really are at high risk of type 2 diabetes. PMID:26541180

Preconception risk assessment of infertile couples

PubMed Central

Nekuei, Nafisehsadat; Kazemi, Ashraf; Ehsanpur, Soheila; Beigi, Nastaran Mohammad Ali

2013-01-01

Background: With regard to the importance of preconception conditions in maternal health and fertility, preconception risk assessment makes treatment trends and pregnancy outcome more successful among infertile couples. This study has tried to investigate preconception risk assessment in infertile couples. Materials and Methods: This is a descriptive analytical survey conducted on 268 subjects, selected by convenient sampling, referring to Isfahan infertility centers (Iran). The data were collected by questionnaires through interview and clients’ medical records. Pre-pregnancy risk assessment including history taking (personal, familial, medical, medications, menstruation, and pregnancy), exams (physical, genital, and vital signs), and routine test requests (routine, cervix, infections, and biochemical tests) was performed in the present study. Results: The results showed that the lowest percentage of taking a complete history was for personal history (0.4%) and the highest was for history of menstruation (100%). The lowest percentage of complete exam was for physical exam (3.4%) and the highest for genital exam (100%). With regard to laboratory assessment, the highest percentage was for routine tests (36.6%) and the lowest was for infection tests (0.4%). Conclusion: Based o the results of the present study, most of the risk assessment components are poorly assessed in infertile couples. With regard to the importance of infertility treatment, spending high costs and time on that, and existence of high-risk individuals as well as treatment failures, health providers should essentially pay special attention to preconception risk assessment in infertile couples in order to enhance the chance of success and promote treatment outcome. PMID:23983724

Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

2009-01-01

A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

Risk assessment for juvenile justice: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Schwalbe, Craig S

2007-10-01

Risk assessment instruments are increasingly employed by juvenile justice settings to estimate the likelihood of recidivism among delinquent juveniles. In concert with their increased use, validation studies documenting their predictive validity have increased in number. The purpose of this study was to assess the average predictive validity of juvenile justice risk assessment instruments and to identify risk assessment characteristics that are associated with higher predictive validity. A search of the published and grey literature yielded 28 studies that estimated the predictive validity of 28 risk assessment instruments. Findings of the meta-analysis were consistent with effect sizes obtained in larger meta-analyses of criminal justice risk assessment instruments and showed that brief risk assessment instruments had smaller effect sizes than other types of instruments. However, this finding is tentative owing to limitations of the literature.

Cancer Risk Prediction and Assessment

Cancer.gov

Cancer prediction models provide an important approach to assessing risk and prognosis by identifying individuals at high risk, facilitating the design and planning of clinical cancer trials, fostering the development of benefit-risk indices, and enabling estimates of the population burden and cost of cancer.

Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

2009-01-01

Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

2016-01-01

NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

Presidential Commission on Risk Assessment and Risk Management

EPA Science Inventory

September 26, 1997. The Presidential/Congressional Commission on Risk Assessment and Risk Management, which was mandated as part of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, was disbanded on August 31, 1997, with some staff work continuing into September. The reports and asso...

Site-Specific Rules for Risk Assessment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tucker, William; And Others

1994-01-01

This article examines the development of regulatory guidance upon which the technology of risk assessment has matured into a decision-making method of choice. It examines in particular the role of site-specific risk assessment at Superfund sites. (LZ)

Sample Results from MCU Solids Outage

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Peters, T.; Washington, A.; Oji, L.

2014-09-22

Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) has received several solid and liquid samples from MCU in an effort to understand and recover from the system outage starting on April 6, 2014. SRNL concludes that the presence of solids in the Salt Solution Feed Tank (SSFT) is the likely root cause for the outage, based upon the following discoveries: A solids sample from the extraction contactor #1 proved to be mostly sodium oxalate; A solids sample from the scrub contactor#1 proved to be mostly sodium oxalate; A solids sample from the Salt Solution Feed Tank (SSFT) proved to be mostly sodium oxalate;more » An archived sample from Tank 49H taken last year was shown to contain a fine precipitate of sodium oxalate; A solids sample from ; A liquid sample from the SSFT was shown to have elevated levels of oxalate anion compared to the expected concentration in the feed. Visual inspection of the SSFT indicated the presence of precipitated or transferred solids, which were likely also in the Salt Solution Receipt Tank (SSRT). The presence of the solids coupled with agitation performed to maintain feed temperature resulted in oxalate solids migration through the MCU system and caused hydraulic issues that resulted in unplanned phase carryover from the extraction into the scrub, and ultimately the strip contactors. Not only did this carryover result in the Strip Effluent (SE) being pushed out of waste acceptance specification, but it resulted in the deposition of solids into several of the contactors. At the same time, extensive deposits of aluminosilicates were found in the drain tube in the extraction contactor #1. However it is not known at this time how the aluminosilicate solids are related to the oxalate solids. The solids were successfully cleaned out of the MCU system. However, future consideration must be given to the exclusion of oxalate solids into the MCU system. There were 53 recommendations for improving operations recently identified. Some additional

Assessment of Interpersonal Risk (AIR) in Adults with Learning Disabilities and Challenging Behaviour--Piloting a New Risk Assessment Tool

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Campbell, Martin; McCue, Michael

2013-01-01

A new risk assessment tool, "Assessment of Interpersonal Risk" (AIR), was piloted and evaluated to measure risk factors and compatibility between individuals living in an assessment and treatment unit in one NHS area. The adults with learning disabilities in this unit had severe and enduring mental health problems and/or behaviour that is severely…

Technical Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment: Problem Formulation

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Before the ecological risk assessment is conducted, risk assessors and risk managers engage in a planning dialogue to ensure that the risk assessment will enable the risk managers to make informed environmental decisions.

Caries Risk Assessment Item Importance

PubMed Central

Chaffee, B.W.; Featherstone, J.D.B.; Gansky, S.A.; Cheng, J.; Zhan, L.

2016-01-01

Caries risk assessment (CRA) is widely recommended for dental caries management. Little is known regarding how practitioners use individual CRA items to determine risk and which individual items independently predict clinical outcomes in children younger than 6 y. The objective of this study was to assess the relative importance of pediatric CRA items in dental providers’ decision making regarding patient risk and in association with clinically evident caries, cross-sectionally and longitudinally. CRA information was abstracted retrospectively from electronic patient records of children initially aged 6 to 72 mo at a university pediatric dentistry clinic (n = 3,810 baseline; n = 1,315 with follow-up). The 17-item CRA form included caries risk indicators, caries protective items, and clinical indicators. Conditional random forests classification trees were implemented to identify and assign variable importance to CRA items independently associated with baseline high-risk designation, baseline evident tooth decay, and follow-up evident decay. Thirteen individual CRA items, including all clinical indicators and all but 1 risk indicator, were independently and statistically significantly associated with student/resident providers’ caries risk designation. Provider-assigned baseline risk category was strongly associated with follow-up decay, which increased from low (20.4%) to moderate (30.6%) to high/extreme risk patients (68.7%). Of baseline CRA items, before adjustment, 12 were associated with baseline decay and 7 with decay at follow-up; however, in the conditional random forests models, only the clinical indicators (evident decay, dental plaque, and recent restoration placement) and 1 risk indicator (frequent snacking) were independently and statistically significantly associated with future disease, for which baseline evident decay was the strongest predictor. In this predominantly high-risk population under caries-preventive care, more individual CRA items

Risk assessing study for Bio-CCS technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, A.; Sakamoto, Y.; Kano, Y.; Higashino, H.; Suzumura, M.; Tosha, T.; Nakao, S.; Komai, T.

2013-12-01

We have started a new R&D project titled 'Energy resources creation by geo-microbes and CCS'. It is new concept of a technology which cultivate methanogenic geo-microbes in reservoirs of geological CCS conditions to produce methane gas effectively and safely. As one of feasibility studies, we are evaluating risks around its new Bio-CCS technology. Our consideration involves risk scenarios about Bio-CCS in geological strata, marine environment, surface facilities, ambient air and injection sites. To cover risk scenarios in these areas, we are carrying out a sub-project with five sub-themes. Four sub-themes out of five are researches for identifying risk scenarios: A) Underground strata and injection well, B) Ambient air, C) Surface facilities and D) Seabed. We are developing risk assessment tool,named GERAS-CO2GS (Geo-environmental Risk Assessment System,CO2 Geological Storage Risk Assessment System. We are going to combine identified risk scenarios into GERAS-CO2GS accordingly. It is expected that new GERAS-CO2GS will contribute to risk assessment and management for not only Bio-CCS but also individual injection sites, and facilitate under standing of risks among legislators and concerned peoples around injection site.

Chemical Risk Assessment: Traditional vs Public Health ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. When done efficiently and properly, chemical risk assessment enables risk management actions that minimize the incidence and impacts of environmentally-induced diseases related to chemical exposure. However, traditional chemical risk assessment is faced with multiple challenges with respect to predicting and preventing disease in human populations, and epidemiological studies increasingly report observations of adverse health effects at exposure levels predicted from animal studies to be safe for humans. This discordance reinforces concerns about the adequacy of contemporary risk assessment practices (Birnbaum, Burke, & Jones, 2016) for protecting public health. It is becoming clear that to protect public health more effectively, future risk assessments will need to use the full range of available data, draw on innovative methods to integrate diverse data streams, and consider health endpoints that also reflect the range of subtle effects and morbidities observed in human populations. Given these factors, there is a need to reframe chemical risk assessment to be more clearly aligned with the public health goal of minimizing environmental exposures associated with disease. Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. Chemical risk assessments

Phthalates and Cumulative Risk Assessment (NAS Final ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

On December 18, 2008, the National Academy of Sciences' National Research Council released a final report, requested and sponsored by the EPA, entitled Phthalates and Cumulative Risk Assessment: The Task Ahead. Risk assessment has become a dominant public policy tool for making choices, based on limited resources, to protect public health and the environment. It has been instrumental to the mission of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as well as other federal agencies in evaluating public health concerns, informing regulatory and technological decisions, prioritizing research needs and funding, and in developing approaches for cost-benefit analysis. People are exposed to a variety of chemicals throughout their daily lives. To protect public health, regulators use risk assessments to examine the effects of chemical exposures. This book provides guidance for assessing the risk of phthalates, chemicals found in many consumer products that have been shown to affect the development of the male reproductive system of laboratory animals. Because people are exposed to multiple phthalates and other chemicals that affect male reproductive development, a cumulative risk assessment should be conducted that evaluates the combined effects of exposure to all these chemicals. The book suggests an approach for cumulative risk assessment that can serve as a model for evaluating the health risks of other types of chemicals.

The evolution of violence risk assessment.

PubMed

Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

2014-10-01

Many instruments have been published in recent years to improve the ability of mental health clinicians to estimate the likelihood that an individual will behave violently toward others. Increasingly, these instruments are being applied in response to laws that require specialized risk assessments. In this review, we present a framework that goes beyond the "clinical" and "actuarial" dichotomy to describe a continuum of structured approaches to risk assessment. Despite differences among them, there is little evidence that one instrument predicts violence better than another. We believe that these group-based instruments are useful for assessing an individual's risk, and that the instrument should be chosen based on the purpose of the assessment.

NEUROTOXICOLOGY IN REGULATION AND RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

The paper is to be published in the proceedings of a conference on learning disabilities. It summarizes the need for neurotoxicology data in risk assessment, the regulatory agencies which have authority to require toxicity testing, the overall process of risk assessment and the p...

Assessing nanoparticle risk poses prodigious challenges

EPA Science Inventory

Risk assessment is used both formally and informally to estimate the likelihood of an adverse event occurring, for example, as a consequence of exposure to a hazardous chemical, drug or other agent. Formal risk assessments in government regulatory agencies have a long history of ...

Risk assessment and risk transfer from an insurerś point of view

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebner, G.

2009-04-01

Risk, a word that causes a lot of associations in human brains. Many of us don't like risks. Since hundreds of years insurance is the most common way to get rid of the financial consequences when risks convert to damages. This article deals with commercial risks and the possibilities of risk transfer, an important task within the field of risk management. For commercial entities it is very important to transfer risks, threatening the competitiveness or even worse the existence of a company. At the beginning of insurance it was more the less a bet between merchants and rich people. Later on mutual societies were taking place. Today we see a complex insurance industry with insurers, reinsurers, self insuring possibilities via captives and much more. This complex system, with all the different ways to deal with risk transfer requires a professional risk assessment! Risk assessment is based on knowledge about the threatened assets, the likelihood that they will be damaged, the threats and the possibilities to protect these assets. Assets may be tangible or intangible. Assessing risks is not a precise calculation that delivers a result without any doubt. But insurers and insured need a basis to fix a premium, both of them can agree. This contribution will present a system to assess risks and to find the right risk-transfer-premiums.

Appraising the risk matrix 2000 static sex offender risk assessment tool.

PubMed

Tully, Ruth J; Browne, Kevin D

2015-02-01

This critical appraisal explores the reliability and validity of the Risk Matrix 2000 static sex offender risk assessment tool that is widely used in the United Kingdom. The Risk Matrix 2000 has to some extent been empirically validated for use with adult male sex offenders; however, this review highlights that further research into the validity of this static tool with sex offender subgroups or types is necessary in order to improve practical utility. The Risk Matrix 2000 relies on static risk predictors, thus it is limited in scope. This article argues that the addition of dynamic items that have been shown to be predictive of sexual recidivism would further enhance the tool. The paper argues that adding dynamic risk items would fit better with a rehabilitative approach to sex offender risk management and assessment. This would also provide a means by which to effectively plan sex offender treatment and evaluate individual offenders' progress in treatment; however, difficulties remain in identifying and assessing dynamic risk factors of sexual offending and so further research is required. © The Author(s) 2013.

Developing a pressure ulcer risk factor minimum data set and risk assessment framework.

PubMed

Coleman, Susanne; Nelson, E Andrea; Keen, Justin; Wilson, Lyn; McGinnis, Elizabeth; Dealey, Carol; Stubbs, Nikki; Muir, Delia; Farrin, Amanda; Dowding, Dawn; Schols, Jos M G A; Cuddigan, Janet; Berlowitz, Dan; Jude, Edward; Vowden, Peter; Bader, Dan L; Gefen, Amit; Oomens, Cees W J; Schoonhoven, Lisette; Nixon, Jane

2014-10-01

To agree a draft pressure ulcer risk factor Minimum Data Set to underpin the development of a new evidenced-based Risk Assessment Framework. A recent systematic review identified the need for a pressure ulcer risk factor Minimum Data Set and development and validation of an evidenced-based pressure ulcer Risk Assessment Framework. This was undertaken through the Pressure UlceR Programme Of reSEarch (RP-PG-0407-10056), funded by the National Institute for Health Research and incorporates five phases. This article reports phase two, a consensus study. Consensus study. A modified nominal group technique based on the Research and Development/University of California at Los Angeles appropriateness method. This incorporated an expert group, review of the evidence and the views of a Patient and Public Involvement service user group. Data were collected December 2010-December 2011. The risk factors and assessment items of the Minimum Data Set (including immobility, pressure ulcer and skin status, perfusion, diabetes, skin moisture, sensory perception and nutrition) were agreed. In addition, a draft Risk Assessment Framework incorporating all Minimum Data Set items was developed, comprising a two stage assessment process (screening and detailed full assessment) and decision pathways. The draft Risk Assessment Framework will undergo further design and pre-testing with clinical nurses to assess and improve its usability. It will then be evaluated in clinical practice to assess its validity and reliability. The Minimum Data Set could be used in future for large scale risk factor studies informing refinement of the Risk Assessment Framework. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Advanced Nursing Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

EPA Science Inventory

The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

Current Challenges in Neurotoxicity Risk Assessment ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Neurotoxicity risk assessment must continue to evolve in parallel with advances in basic research. Along with this evolution is an expansion in the scope of neurotoxicity assessments of environmental health risks. Examples of this expansion include an increasing emphasis on complex animal models that better replicate human behavior and a wider array of molecular and mechanistic data relevant to interpreting the underlying cause(s) of toxicity. However, modern neurotoxicology studies are often more nuanced and complicated than traditional studies, and they often vary considerably in evaluation methods from one study to the next, impeding comparisons. This can pose particular difficulties for risk assessors, especially given the recent demand for chemical risk assessments to be more systematic and transparent. This presentation will introduce and provide some examples of specific challenges in neurotoxicity assessments of environmental chemicals. Some of these challenges are relatively new to the field, such as the incorporation of data on neuron-supportive glial cells into hazard characterization, while other challenges have persisted for several decades, but only recently are studies being designed to evaluate them, including analyses of latent neurotoxicity. The examples provided illustrate some future research areas of interest for scientists and risk assessors examining human neurotoxicity risk. This abstract will be presented to internal U.S. Food and Drug A

NATIONAL-SCALE ASSESSMENT OF AIR TOXICS RISKS ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The national-scale assessment of air toxics risks is a modeling assessment which combines emission inventory development, atmospheric fate and transport modeling, exposure modeling, and risk assessment to characterize the risk associated with inhaling air toxics from outdoor sources. This national-scale effort will be initiated for the base year 1996 and repeated every three years thereafter to track trends and inform program development. Provide broad-scale understanding of inhalation risks for a subset of atmospherically-emitted air toxics to inform further data-gathering efforts and priority-setting for the EPA's Air Toxics Programs.

Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.

PubMed

Elwood, Richard W

2016-12-01

There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals' risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals' risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals' risk of sexual recidivism.

Completion of risk assessment and monitoring within forensic psychiatry.

PubMed

Galappathie, Nuwan; Heeramun, Ragini; Jethwa, Krishma

2009-04-01

There is a clear need for high standards of risk assessment and monitoring within forensic psychiatry. This has been highlighted by a number of high profile homicide enquires which have called for better standards of multidisciplinary risk assessment and monitoring. There are no national standards for risk assessment. We conducted a study to audit electronically the completion rate of a service-designed risk assessment document within Fromside, a medium secure unit in the UK. The completion rates for key sections of 64 risk assessment documents were assessed. Only 48 of the 64 (75%) documents were electronically available. The completion rates ranged from 59/64 (92%) for the retrospective risk review to 46/64 (72%) for relapse indicators. Only 35/64 (55%) risk documents were updated within the last three months. We found that the use of risk profile documents has helped achieve good standards of risk assessment, however greater priority needs to be given to ongoing monitoring. We recommend that consideration is given to the development of national guidelines for multidisciplinary risk assessment and monitoring.

Quantifying risk and accuracy in cancer risk assessment: the process and its role in risk management problem-solving.

PubMed

Turturro, A; Hart, R W

1987-01-01

A better understanding of chemical-induced cancer has led to appreciation of similarities to problems addressed by risk management of radiation-induced toxicity. Techniques developed for cancer risk assessment of toxic substances can be generalized to toxic agents. A recent problem-solving approach for risk management of toxic substances developed for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, and the role of risk assessment and how uncertainty should be treated within the context of this approach, is discussed. Finally, two different methods, research into the assumptions underlying risk assessment and the modification of risk assessment/risk management documents, are used to illustrate how the technique can be applied.

Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

PubMed

Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

2018-01-01

Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Aggregate Exposure and Cumulative Risk Assessment--Integrating Occupational and Non-occupational Risk Factors.

PubMed

Lentz, T J; Dotson, G S; Williams, P R D; Maier, A; Gadagbui, B; Pandalai, S P; Lamba, A; Hearl, F; Mumtaz, M

2015-01-01

Occupational exposure limits have traditionally focused on preventing morbidity and mortality arising from inhalation exposures to individual chemical stressors in the workplace. While central to occupational risk assessment, occupational exposure limits have limited application as a refined disease prevention tool because they do not account for all of the complexities of the work and non-occupational environments and are based on varying health endpoints. To be of greater utility, occupational exposure limits and other risk management tools could integrate broader consideration of risks from multiple exposure pathways and routes (aggregate risk) as well as the combined risk from exposure to both chemical and non-chemical stressors, within and beyond the workplace, including the possibility that such exposures may cause interactions or modify the toxic effects observed (cumulative risk). Although still at a rudimentary stage in many cases, a variety of methods and tools have been developed or are being used in allied risk assessment fields to incorporate such considerations in the risk assessment process. These approaches, which are collectively referred to as cumulative risk assessment, have potential to be adapted or modified for occupational scenarios and provide a tangible path forward for occupational risk assessment. Accounting for complex exposures in the workplace and the broader risks faced by the individual also requires a more complete consideration of the composite effects of occupational and non-occupational risk factors to fully assess and manage worker health problems. Barriers to integrating these different factors remain, but new and ongoing community-based and worker health-related initiatives may provide mechanisms for identifying and integrating risk from aggregate exposures and cumulative risks from all relevant sources, be they occupational or non-occupational.

Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

PubMed

Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

2015-01-01

Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

Performing the lockout/tagout risk assessment.

PubMed

Wallace, W Jon

2007-03-01

Lockout/tagout provides the greatest level routine, repetitive, and integral to the production process, a risk assessment should be performed. If the task performed poses an unacceptable risk, acceptable risk reduction methods should be implemented to reduce the risk to acceptable levels.

REGIONAL SCALE COMPARATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) is an approach to regional-scale ecological risk assessment that is currently under development by EPA's Office of Research and Development. The pilot assessment will be done for the mid-Atlantic region and builds on data collected for th...

Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Roskilde University hosted a November 2015 workshop on “Environmental Risk – Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World”. Thirty attendees from 9 countries developed consensus recommendations regarding: implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process involving both universal and site-, region-, or problem-specific protection goals; addressing societal issues; risk management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. We encourage both cross- and inter-disciplinary approaches to address 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and non-chemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk management process; 5) consider socio-economics and increase transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference con

A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dezfuli, Homayoon

2010-01-01

This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.

Applying a weed risk assessment approach to GM crops.

PubMed

Keese, Paul K; Robold, Andrea V; Myers, Ruth C; Weisman, Sarah; Smith, Joe

2014-12-01

Current approaches to environmental risk assessment of genetically modified (GM) plants are modelled on chemical risk assessment methods, which have a strong focus on toxicity. There are additional types of harms posed by plants that have been extensively studied by weed scientists and incorporated into weed risk assessment methods. Weed risk assessment uses robust, validated methods that are widely applied to regulatory decision-making about potentially problematic plants. They are designed to encompass a broad variety of plant forms and traits in different environments, and can provide reliable conclusions even with limited data. The knowledge and experience that underpin weed risk assessment can be harnessed for environmental risk assessment of GM plants. A case study illustrates the application of the Australian post-border weed risk assessment approach to a representative GM plant. This approach is a valuable tool to identify potential risks from GM plants.

Violence risk assessment as a medical intervention: ethical tensions

PubMed Central

Roychowdhury, Ashimesh; Adshead, Gwen

2014-01-01

Risk assessment differs from other medical interventions in that the welfare of the patient is not the immediate object of the intervention. However, improving the risk assessment process may reduce the chance of risk assessment itself being unjust. We explore the ethical arguments in relation to risk assessment as a medical intervention, drawing analogies, where applicable, with ethical arguments raised by general medical investigations. The article concludes by supporting the structured professional judgement approach as a method of risk assessment that is most consistent with the respect for principles of medical ethics. Recommendations are made for the future direction of risk assessment indicated by ethical theory. PMID:25237503

Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk—Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological c

Assessing the Fire Risk for a Historic Hangar

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Datta, Koushik; Morrison, Richard S.

2010-01-01

NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) is evaluating options of reuse of its historic Hangar 1. As a part of this evaluation, a qualitative fire risk assessment study was performed to evaluate the potential threat of combustion of the historic hangar. The study focused on the fire risk trade-off of either installing or not installing a Special Hazard Fire Suppression System in the Hangar 1 deck areas. The assessment methodology was useful in discussing the important issues among various groups within the Center. Once the methodology was deemed acceptable, the results were assessed. The results showed that the risk remained in the same risk category, whether Hangar 1 does or does not have a Special Hazard Fire Suppression System. Note that the methodology assessed the risk to Hangar 1 and not the risk to an aircraft in the hangar. If one had a high value aircraft, the aircraft risk analysis could potentially show a different result. The assessed risk results were then communicated to management and other stakeholders.

Landscape ecological risk assessment study in arid land

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Lu; Amut, Aniwaer; Shi, Qingdong; Wang, Gary Z.

2007-09-01

The ecosystem risk assessment is an essential decision making system for predicting the reconstruction and recovery of a damaged ecosystem after intensive mankind activities. The sustainability of environment and resources of the lake ecosystem in arid districts have been paid close attention to by international communities as well as numerous experts and scholars. The ecological risk assessment offered a scientific foundation for making the decision and execution of ecological risk management. Bosten Lake, the largest inland freshwater lake in China, is the main water source of the industrial and agricultural production as well as the local residence in Yanqi basin, Kuara city and Yuri County in the southern Xinjiang. Bosten Lake also provides a direct water source for emergency transportation in the Lower Reaches of Tarim River. However, with the intensive utilizations of water and soil resources, the environmental condition in the Bosten Lake has become more and more serious. In this study, the theory and method of landscape ecological risk assessment has been practiced using 3S technologies combined with the frontier theory of landscape ecology. Defining the mainly risk resource including flood, drought, water pollution and rich nutrition of water has been evaluated based on the ecosystem risk assessment system. The main process includes five stages: regional natural resources analysis, risk receptor selection, risk sources evaluation, exposure and hazard analysis, and integrated risk assessment. Based on the risk assessment results, the environmental risk management countermeasure has been determined.

Microbiological Quantitative Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dominguez, Silvia; Schaffner, Donald W.

The meat and poultry industry faces ongoing challenges due to the natural association of pathogens of concern (e.g., Salmonella, Campylobacter jejuni, Escherichia coli O157:H7) with a variety of domesticated food animals. In addition, pathogens such as Listeria monocytogenes pose a significant cross-contamination risk during further meat and poultry processing, distribution, and storage. Furthermore, the meat and poultry industries are constantly changing with the addition of new products, use of new raw materials, and targeting of new consumer populations, each of which may give rise to potential new risks. National and international regulations are increasingly using a “risk-based” approach to food safety (where the regulatory focus is driven by the magnitude of the risk), so risk assessment is becoming a valuable tool to systematically organize and evaluate the potential public health risk posed by food processing operations.

Formaldehyde risk assessment

EPA Science Inventory

We would like to comment on the paper by Crump et al. (2008), ‘Sensitivity analysis of biologically motivated model for formaldehyde-induced respiratory cancer in humans’. We are authors of the formaldehyde cancer risk assessment described in Conolly et al. (2003, 2004) that is t...

The application of quantitative risk assessment to microbial food safety risks.

PubMed

Jaykus, L A

1996-01-01

Regulatory programs and guidelines for the control of foodborne microbial agents have existed in the U.S. for nearly 100 years. However, increased awareness of the scope and magnitude of foodborne disease, as well as the emergence of previously unrecognized human pathogens transmitted via the foodborne route, have prompted regulatory officials to consider new and improved strategies to reduce the health risks associated with pathogenic microorganisms in foods. Implementation of these proposed strategies will involve definitive costs for a finite level of risk reduction. While regulatory decisions regarding the management of foodborne disease risk have traditionally been done with the aid of the scientific community, a formal conceptual framework for the evaluation of health risks from pathogenic microorganisms in foods is warranted. Quantitative risk assessment (QRA), which is formally defined as the technical assessment of the nature and magnitude of a risk caused by a hazard, provides such a framework. Reproducing microorganisms in foods present a particular challenge to QRA because both their introduction and numbers may be affected by numerous factors within the food chain, with all of these factors representing significant stages in food production, handling, and consumption, in a farm-to-table type of approach. The process of QRA entails four designated phases: (1) hazard identification, (2) exposure assessment, (3) dose-response assessment, and (4) risk characterization. Specific analytical tools are available to accomplish the analyses required for each phase of the QRA. The purpose of this paper is to provide a description of the conceptual framework for quantitative microbial risk assessment within the standard description provided by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) paradigm. Each of the sequential steps in QRA are discussed in detail, providing information on current applications, tools for conducting the analyses, and methodological and/or data

Using Risk Assessment Methodologies to Meet Management Objectives

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeMott, D. L.

2015-01-01

Current decision making involves numerous possible combinations of technology elements, safety and health issues, operational aspects and process considerations to satisfy program goals. Identifying potential risk considerations as part of the management decision making process provides additional tools to make more informed management decision. Adapting and using risk assessment methodologies can generate new perspectives on various risk and safety concerns that are not immediately apparent. Safety and operational risks can be identified and final decisions can balance these considerations with cost and schedule risks. Additional assessments can also show likelihood of event occurrence and event consequence to provide a more informed basis for decision making, as well as cost effective mitigation strategies. Methodologies available to perform Risk Assessments range from qualitative identification of risk potential, to detailed assessments where quantitative probabilities are calculated. Methodology used should be based on factors that include: 1) type of industry and industry standards, 2) tasks, tools, and environment 3) type and availability of data and 4) industry views and requirements regarding risk & reliability. Risk Assessments are a tool for decision makers to understand potential consequences and be in a position to reduce, mitigate or eliminate costly mistakes or catastrophic failures.

School Suicide Risk Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brock, Stephen E.; Louvar Reeves, Melissa A.

2018-01-01

Suicide is a leading cause of death among youth ages 10 years and older. Further, recent federal surveillance data suggest the rates of suicidal ideation and behaviors to be increasing. With these facts in mind, in this paper, we examine the school psychologist's role in suicide risk assessment; which assesses the degree to which students, who…

Is health risk assessment unethical

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, B.L.

For persons who have followed the environmental movement in the US and in other countries, it comes as no revelation that the general public has been, and remains, quite concerned about environmental hazards. This concern has in turn led to national and local legislation that is intended to protect the environment and public health. In a parallel way, transnational public concerns have fostered international agreements on controlling such environmental hazards as shipments of hazardous wastes and ocean pollution. Over time, as governments have attempted to come to grips with controlling various environmental hazards, the development and use of health riskmore » assessment has become a well-favored practice by government and some private sector agencies. Because health risk assessment is used to ultimately manage environmental hazards that impact the well-being of people, it seems timely to raise the questions of to what extent are ethical considerations incorporated into health risk assessments and risk management actions.« less

Can we (actually) assess global risk?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

2013-04-01

The evaluation of the dynamic interactions of the different components of global risk (e.g. hazard, exposure, vulnerability or resilience) is one of the main challenges in risk assessment and management. In state-of-the-art approaches for the analysis of risk, natural and socio-economic systems are typically treated separately by using different methods. In flood risk studies, for instance, physical scientists typically focus on the study of the probability of flooding (i.e. hazard), while social scientists mainly examine the exposure, vulnerability or resilience to flooding. However, these different components are deeply interconnected. Changes in flood hazard might trigger changes in vulnerability, and vice versa. A typical example of these interactions is the so-called "levee effect", whereby heightening levees to reduce the probability of flooding often leads to increase the potential adverse consequences of flooding as people often perceive that flood risk was completely eliminated once the levee was raised. These interconnections between the different components of risk remain largely unexplored and poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is of serious concern as it limits our ability to plan appropriate risk prevention measures. To design flood control structures, for example, state-of-the-art models can indeed provide quantitative assessments of the corresponding risk reduction associated to the lower probability of flooding. Nevertheless, current methods cannot estimate how, and to what extent, such a reduction might trigger a future increase of the potential adverse consequences of flooding (the aforementioned "levee effect"). Neither can they evaluate how the latter might (in turn) lead to the requirement of additional flood control structures. Thus, while many progresses have been made in the static assessment of flood risk, more inter-disciplinary research is required for the development of methods for dynamic risk assessment, which is very much

Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

2015-07-01

Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Tidwell, Vincent C.; Peplinski, William John

Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for threemore » water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.« less

Assessing the Cost of Large-Scale Power Outages to Residential Customers.

PubMed

Baik, Sunhee; Davis, Alexander L; Morgan, M Granger

2018-02-01

Residents in developed economies depend heavily on electric services. While distributed resources and a variety of new smart technologies can increase the reliability of that service, adopting them involves costs, necessitating tradeoffs between cost and reliability. An important input to making such tradeoffs is an estimate of the value customers place on reliable electric services. We develop an elicitation framework that helps individuals think systematically about the value they attach to reliable electric service. Our approach employs a detailed and realistic blackout scenario, full or partial (20 A) backup service, questions about willingness to pay (WTP) using a multiple bounded discrete choice method, information regarding inconveniences and economic losses, and checks for bias and consistency. We applied this method to a convenience sample of residents in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, finding that respondents valued a kWh for backup services they assessed to be high priority more than services that were seen as low priority ($0.75/kWh vs. $0.51/kWh). As more information about the consequences of a blackout was provided, this difference increased ($1.2/kWh vs. $0.35/kWh), and respondents' uncertainty about the backup services decreased (Full: $11 to $9.0, Partial: $13 to $11). There was no evidence that the respondents were anchored by their previous WTP statements, but they demonstrated only weak scope sensitivity. In sum, the consumer surplus associated with providing a partial electric backup service during a blackout may justify the costs of such service, but measurement of that surplus depends on the public having accurate information about blackouts and their consequences. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

OVERVIEW OF RISK ASSESSMENT FOR TOXIC AND PATHOGENIC AGENTS

EPA Science Inventory

Risk assessment is a process that defines the adverse health consequences of exposure to toxic or pathogenic agents. hen used in regulatory decision making, risk assessment is an important component of risk management, which "combines the risk assessment with the directives of re...

The Next Generation of Risk Assessment Multi-Year Study-Highlights of Findings, Applications to Risk Assessment, and Future Directions.

PubMed

Cote, Ila; Andersen, Melvin E; Ankley, Gerald T; Barone, Stanley; Birnbaum, Linda S; Boekelheide, Kim; Bois, Frederic Y; Burgoon, Lyle D; Chiu, Weihsueh A; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Crofton, Kevin M; DeVito, Michael; Devlin, Robert B; Edwards, Stephen W; Guyton, Kathryn Z; Hattis, Dale; Judson, Richard S; Knight, Derek; Krewski, Daniel; Lambert, Jason; Maull, Elizabeth Anne; Mendrick, Donna; Paoli, Gregory M; Patel, Chirag Jagdish; Perkins, Edward J; Poje, Gerald; Portier, Christopher J; Rusyn, Ivan; Schulte, Paul A; Simeonov, Anton; Smith, Martyn T; Thayer, Kristina A; Thomas, Russell S; Thomas, Reuben; Tice, Raymond R; Vandenberg, John J; Villeneuve, Daniel L; Wesselkamper, Scott; Whelan, Maurice; Whittaker, Christine; White, Ronald; Xia, Menghang; Yauk, Carole; Zeise, Lauren; Zhao, Jay; DeWoskin, Robert S

2016-11-01

The Next Generation (NexGen) of Risk Assessment effort is a multi-year collaboration among several organizations evaluating new, potentially more efficient molecular, computational, and systems biology approaches to risk assessment. This article summarizes our findings, suggests applications to risk assessment, and identifies strategic research directions. Our specific objectives were to test whether advanced biological data and methods could better inform our understanding of public health risks posed by environmental exposures. New data and methods were applied and evaluated for use in hazard identification and dose-response assessment. Biomarkers of exposure and effect, and risk characterization were also examined. Consideration was given to various decision contexts with increasing regulatory and public health impacts. Data types included transcriptomics, genomics, and proteomics. Methods included molecular epidemiology and clinical studies, bioinformatic knowledge mining, pathway and network analyses, short-duration in vivo and in vitro bioassays, and quantitative structure activity relationship modeling. NexGen has advanced our ability to apply new science by more rapidly identifying chemicals and exposures of potential concern, helping characterize mechanisms of action that influence conclusions about causality, exposure-response relationships, susceptibility and cumulative risk, and by elucidating new biomarkers of exposure and effects. Additionally, NexGen has fostered extensive discussion among risk scientists and managers and improved confidence in interpreting and applying new data streams. While considerable uncertainties remain, thoughtful application of new knowledge to risk assessment appears reasonable for augmenting major scope assessments, forming the basis for or augmenting limited scope assessments, and for prioritization and screening of very data limited chemicals. Citation: Cote I, Andersen ME, Ankley GT, Barone S, Birnbaum LS, Boekelheide K

The Next Generation of Risk Assessment Multi-Year Study—Highlights of Findings, Applications to Risk Assessment, and Future Directions

PubMed Central

Cote, Ila; Andersen, Melvin E.; Ankley, Gerald T.; Barone, Stanley; Birnbaum, Linda S.; Boekelheide, Kim; Bois, Frederic Y.; Burgoon, Lyle D.; Chiu, Weihsueh A.; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Crofton, Kevin M.; DeVito, Michael; Devlin, Robert B.; Edwards, Stephen W.; Guyton, Kathryn Z.; Hattis, Dale; Judson, Richard S.; Knight, Derek; Krewski, Daniel; Lambert, Jason; Maull, Elizabeth Anne; Mendrick, Donna; Paoli, Gregory M.; Patel, Chirag Jagdish; Perkins, Edward J.; Poje, Gerald; Portier, Christopher J.; Rusyn, Ivan; Schulte, Paul A.; Simeonov, Anton; Smith, Martyn T.; Thayer, Kristina A.; Thomas, Russell S.; Thomas, Reuben; Tice, Raymond R.; Vandenberg, John J.; Villeneuve, Daniel L.; Wesselkamper, Scott; Whelan, Maurice; Whittaker, Christine; White, Ronald; Xia, Menghang; Yauk, Carole; Zeise, Lauren; Zhao, Jay; DeWoskin, Robert S.

2016-01-01

Background: The Next Generation (NexGen) of Risk Assessment effort is a multi-year collaboration among several organizations evaluating new, potentially more efficient molecular, computational, and systems biology approaches to risk assessment. This article summarizes our findings, suggests applications to risk assessment, and identifies strategic research directions. Objective: Our specific objectives were to test whether advanced biological data and methods could better inform our understanding of public health risks posed by environmental exposures. Methods: New data and methods were applied and evaluated for use in hazard identification and dose–response assessment. Biomarkers of exposure and effect, and risk characterization were also examined. Consideration was given to various decision contexts with increasing regulatory and public health impacts. Data types included transcriptomics, genomics, and proteomics. Methods included molecular epidemiology and clinical studies, bioinformatic knowledge mining, pathway and network analyses, short-duration in vivo and in vitro bioassays, and quantitative structure activity relationship modeling. Discussion: NexGen has advanced our ability to apply new science by more rapidly identifying chemicals and exposures of potential concern, helping characterize mechanisms of action that influence conclusions about causality, exposure–response relationships, susceptibility and cumulative risk, and by elucidating new biomarkers of exposure and effects. Additionally, NexGen has fostered extensive discussion among risk scientists and managers and improved confidence in interpreting and applying new data streams. Conclusions: While considerable uncertainties remain, thoughtful application of new knowledge to risk assessment appears reasonable for augmenting major scope assessments, forming the basis for or augmenting limited scope assessments, and for prioritization and screening of very data limited chemicals. Citation: Cote I

OPPT workplan risk assessment for antimony trioxide (CASRN ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This assessment will focus on the ecological hazards that may be associated with ATO use in flame retardants. Because ATO’s use in PET plastics was previously evaluated and determined to present minimal concerns for human health and the environment (EU, 2008), this use scenario will not be evaluated here. Human health risks have been evaluated previously and will be summarized in this assessment. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy.

PubMed

Adger, W Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

2018-06-13

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

2018-06-01

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

PubMed Central

Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

2018-01-01

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712800

Assessment of health risks of policies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ádám, Balázs, E-mail: badam@cmss.sdu.dk; Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen; Molnár, Ágnes, E-mail: MolnarAg@smh.ca

The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidancemore » and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.« less

Application of geostatistics to risk assessment.

PubMed

Thayer, William C; Griffith, Daniel A; Goodrum, Philip E; Diamond, Gary L; Hassett, James M

2003-10-01

Geostatistics offers two fundamental contributions to environmental contaminant exposure assessment: (1) a group of methods to quantitatively describe the spatial distribution of a pollutant and (2) the ability to improve estimates of the exposure point concentration by exploiting the geospatial information present in the data. The second contribution is particularly valuable when exposure estimates must be derived from small data sets, which is often the case in environmental risk assessment. This article addresses two topics related to the use of geostatistics in human and ecological risk assessments performed at hazardous waste sites: (1) the importance of assessing model assumptions when using geostatistics and (2) the use of geostatistics to improve estimates of the exposure point concentration (EPC) in the limited data scenario. The latter topic is approached here by comparing design-based estimators that are familiar to environmental risk assessors (e.g., Land's method) with geostatistics, a model-based estimator. In this report, we summarize the basics of spatial weighting of sample data, kriging, and geostatistical simulation. We then explore the two topics identified above in a case study, using soil lead concentration data from a Superfund site (a skeet and trap range). We also describe several areas where research is needed to advance the use of geostatistics in environmental risk assessment.

New method for assessing risks of email

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raja, Seyyed H.; Afrooz, Farzad

2013-03-01

E-mail technology, has become one of the requirements of human lives for correspondence between individuals. Given this, the important point is that the messages, server and client of e-mail and correspondences that exchanged between different people have acceptable security, to make people sure to use of this technology. In the information age, many of financial and non financial transactions are done electronically, data exchange takes place via the internet and theft and manipulation of data can make exorbitant cost in terms of integrity, financial, political, economic and culture. E-mail correspondence in there is same and it is very important. With review took place, a method that will focus on email system for risks assessment is not provided. We are examining ways of assessing for other systems and their strengths and weaknesses, then we use Mr Convery method for assessing email risks which it is for assessing network risks. At the end of paper we have offered special table for email risk assessment.

Advancing environmental risk assessment for transgenic biofeedstock crops

PubMed Central

Wolt, Jeffrey D

2009-01-01

Transgenic modification of plants is a key enabling technology for developing sustainable biofeedstocks for biofuels production. Regulatory decisions and the wider acceptance and development of transgenic biofeedstock crops are considered from the context of science-based risk assessment. The risk assessment paradigm for transgenic biofeedstock crops is fundamentally no different from that of current generation transgenic crops, except that the focus of the assessment must consider the unique attributes of a given biofeedstock crop and its environmental release. For currently envisioned biofeedstock crops, particular emphasis in risk assessment will be given to characterization of altered metabolic profiles and their implications relative to non-target environmental effects and food safety; weediness and invasiveness when plants are modified for abiotic stress tolerance or are domesticated; and aggregate risk when plants are platforms for multi-product production. Robust risk assessments for transgenic biofeedstock crops are case-specific, initiated through problem formulation, and use tiered approaches for risk characterization. PMID:19883509

Ecological risk assessment conceptual model formulation for nonindigenous species.

PubMed

Landis, Wayne G

2004-08-01

This article addresses the application of ecological risk assessment at the regional scale to the prediction of impacts due to invasive or nonindigenous species (NIS). The first section describes risk assessment, the decision-making process, and introduces regional risk assessment. A general conceptual model for the risk assessment of NIS is then presented based upon the regional risk assessment approach. Two diverse examples of the application of this approach are presented. The first example is based upon the dynamics of introduced plasmids into bacteria populations. The second example is the application risk assessment approach to the invasion of a coastal marine site of Cherry Point, Washington, USA by the European green crab. The lessons learned from the two examples demonstrate that assessment of the risks of invasion of NIS will have to incorporate not only the characteristics of the invasive species, but also the other stresses and impacts affecting the region of interest.

Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.

Improving antenatal risk assessment in women exposed to high risks.

PubMed

Perry, Natasha; Newman, Louise K; Hunter, Mick; Dunlop, Adrian

2015-01-01

Antenatal substance use and related psychosocial risk factors are known to increase the likelihood of child protection involvement; less is known about the predictive nature of maternal reflective functioning (RF) in this population. This preliminary study assessed psychosocial and psychological risk factors for a group of substance dependent women exposed to high risks in pregnancy, and their impact on child protection involvement. Pregnant women on opiate substitution treatment (n = 11) and a comparison group (n = 15) were recruited during their third trimester to complete measures of RF (Pregnancy Interview), childhood trauma, mental health and psychosocial assessments. At postnatal follow-up, RF was reassessed (Parent Development Interview - Revised Short Version) and mother-infant dyads were videotaped to assess emotional availability (EA). Child protection services were contacted to determine if any concerns had been raised for infant safety. Significant between-group differences were observed for demographics, psychosocial factors, trauma and mental health symptoms. Unexpectedly, no significant differences were found for RF or EA between groups. Eight women in the 'exposed to high risks' group became involved with child protection services. Reflective functioning was not significantly associated with psychosocial risk factors, and therefore did not mediate the outcome of child protection involvement. Women 'exposed to high risks' were equally able to generate a model of their own and their infants' mental states and should not be seen within a deficit perspective. Further research is required to better understand the range of risk factors that predict child protection involvement in high risk groups. © The Author(s) 2013.

Risk assessment in the North Caucasus ski resorts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komarov, Anton Y.; Seliverstov, Yury G.; Glazovskaya, Tatyana G.; Turchaninova, Alla S.

2016-10-01

Avalanches pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of Russia. The constant growth of economic activity, and therefore the increased avalanche hazard, in the North Caucasus region lead to demand for the development of large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments.The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of the Russian Federation (Federal Law 21.12.1994 N 68-FZ, 2016). However, Russian guidelines (SNIP 11-02-96, 2013; SNIP 22-02-2003, 2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. Thus, we discuss these problems by presenting a new avalanche risk assessment approach, with the example of developing but poorly researched ski resort areas. The suggested method includes the formulas to calculate collective and individual avalanche risk. The results of risk analysis are shown in quantitative data that can be used to determine levels of avalanche risk (appropriate, acceptable and inappropriate) and to suggest methods to decrease the individual risk to an acceptable level or better. The analysis makes it possible to compare risk quantitative data obtained from different regions, analyze them and evaluate the economic feasibility of protection measures.

GENOTOXICITY RISK ASSESSMENT: A PROPOSED CLASSIFICATION STRATEGY

EPA Science Inventory

Recent advances in genetic toxicity (mutagenicity) testing methods and in approaches to performing risk assessment are prompting a renewed effort to harmonize genotoxicity risk assessment across the world. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) first published Guidelines fo...

Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2005-01-01

The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

Risk assessment as standard work in design.

PubMed

Morrill, Patricia W

2013-01-01

This case study article examines a formal risk assessment as part of the decision making process for design solutions in high risk areas. The overview of the Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) tool with examples of its application in hospital building projects will demonstrate the benefit of those structured conversations. This article illustrates how two hospitals used FMEA when integrating operational processes with building projects: (1) adjacency decision for Intensive Care Unit (ICU); and (2) distance concern for handling of specimens from Surgery to Lab. Both case studies involved interviews that exposed facility solution concerns. Just-in-time studies using the FMEA followed the same risk assessment process with the same workshop facilitator involving structured conversations in analyzing risks. In both cases, participants uncovered key areas of risk enabling them to take the necessary next steps. While the focus of this article is not the actual design solution, it is apparent that the risk assessment brought clarity to the situations resulting in prompt decision making about facility solutions. Hospitals are inherently risky environments; therefore, use of the formal risk assessment process, FMEA, is an opportunity for design professionals to apply more rigor to design decision making when facility solutions impact operations in high risk areas. Case study, decision making, hospital, infection control, strategy, work environment.

Twenty Years of Progress in Violence Risk Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hanson, R. Karl

2005-01-01

Violence risk assessment has advanced considerably in the last 20 years. In the 1980s, leading professionals questioned the very possibility of valid violence risk assessments; now, many of the major risk factors have been identified, and professional debate focuses on how best to combine these risk factors into meaningful evaluations. An…

Assessment, Planning, and Execution Considerations for Conjunction Risk Assessment and Mitigation Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frigm, Ryan C.; Levi, Joshua A.; Mantziaras, Dimitrios C.

2010-01-01

An operational Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) concept is the real-time process of assessing risk posed by close approaches and reacting to those risks if necessary. The most effective way to completely mitigate conjunction risk is to perform an avoidance maneuver. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has implemented a routine CARA process since 2005. Over this period, considerable experience has been gained and many lessons have been learned. This paper identifies and presents these experiences as general concepts in the description of the Conjunction Assessment, Flight Dynamics, and Flight Operations methodologies and processes. These general concepts will be tied together and will be exemplified through a case study of an actual high risk conjunction event for the Aura mission.

Risk Assessment and Stewardship of Bt Crops

EPA Science Inventory

Registration of Bt crops as part of the FIFRA requirements involves the assessment of environmental risk associated with the new crop variety. The assessment analysis stipulates that the seed producer provide clear and unambiguous information relating to certain risk categories a...

Food allergy and risk assessment: Current status and future directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Remington, Benjamin C.

2017-09-01

Risk analysis is a three part, interactive process that consists of a scientific risk assessment, a risk management strategy and an exchange of information through risk communication. Quantitative risk assessment methodologies are now available and widely used for assessing risks regarding the unintentional consumption of major, regulated allergens but new or modified proteins can also pose a risk of de-novo sensitization. The risks due to de-novo sensitization to new food allergies are harder to quantify. There is a need for a systematic, comprehensive battery of tests and assessment strategy to identify and characterise de-novo sensitization to new proteins and the risks associated with them. A risk assessment must be attuned to answer the risk management questions and needs. Consequently, the hazard and risk assessment methods applied and the desired information are determined by the requested outcome for risk management purposes and decisions to be made. The COST Action network (ImpARAS, www.imparas.eu) has recently started to discuss these risk management criteria from first principles and will continue with the broader subject of improving strategies for allergen risk assessment throughout 2016-2018/9.

Caseworker assessments of risk for recurrent maltreatment: association with case-specific risk factors and re-reports.

PubMed

Dorsey, Shannon; Mustillo, Sarah A; Farmer, Elizabeth M Z; Elbogen, Eric

2008-03-01

This article focuses on caseworkers' assessments of risk of maltreatment recurrence among families in contact with social services. Specifically, the article has two primary goals: (1) to examine the association between caseworkers' risk assessments and demographic, child, parent and family-level risk factors; and (2) to examine agreement between caseworkers' risk assessments and any subsequent report, or reports, of maltreatment. Data are from the baseline, 12-month, and 18-month assessments of the National Survey for Child and Adolescent Well-Being (NSCAW), a nationally representative sample of youth and families who were the subjects of allegations of maltreatment investigated by child welfare agencies. The sample consisted of a subset of NSCAW participants: cases with a report of child physical abuse or neglect who were not placed in out-of-home care (N=2,139). Analyses indicated that parent-level risk factors and a prior report of maltreatment were most strongly associated with caseworkers' assessments of risk for both physical abuse and neglect cases. A smaller set of factors, which varied by the type of maltreatment, were associated with a subsequent report of maltreatment. Despite some overlap in correlates of risk assessment and subsequent reports, analyses indicated that agreement between caseworkers' assessments of risk and re-reports was low. Findings suggest that although caseworkers' assessments were associated with a limited set of risk factors from the literature, few of these factors also were associated with a recurrent report of maltreatment. Correspondence between caseworkers' assessments of risk and a subsequent report of maltreatment was low, suggesting that considerable work may be needed to improve accuracy and identification of cases most at risk. This study provides information to assist caseworkers, administrators, and policymakers in thinking critically about risk assessment policies and procedures. Although caseworkers' assessments of

La Conchita Landslide Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kropp, A.; Johnson, L.; Magnusen, W.; Hitchcock, C. S.

2009-12-01

Following the disastrous landslide in La Conchita in 2005 that resulted in ten deaths, the State of California selected our team to prepare a risk assessment for a committee of key stakeholders. The stakeholders represented the State of California, Ventura County, members of the La Conchita community, the railroad, and the upslope ranch owner (where the slide originated); a group with widely varying views and interests. Our team was charged with characterizing the major hazards, developing a series of mitigation concepts, evaluating the benefits and costs of mitigation, and gathering stakeholder input throughout the process. Two unique elements of the study were the methodologies utilized for the consequence assessment and for the decision-making framework. La Conchita is exposed to multiple slope hazards, each with differing geographical distributions, as well as depth and velocity characteristics. Three consequence matrices were developed so that the potential financial losses, structural vulnerabilities, and human safety exposure could be evaluated. The matrices utilized semi-quantitative loss evaluations (both financial and life safety) based on a generalized understanding of likely vulnerability and hazard characteristics. The model provided a quantitative estimate of cumulative losses over a 50-year period, including losses of life based on FEMA evaluation criteria. Conceptual mitigation options and loss estimates were developed to provide a range of risk management solutions that were feasible from a cost-benefit standpoint. A decision tree approach was adopted to focus on fundamental risk management questions rather than on specific outcomes since the committee did not have a consensus view on the preferred solution. These questions included: 1. Over what time period can risks be tolerated before implementation of decisions? 2. Whose responsibility is it to identify a workable risk management solution? 3. Who will own the project? The decision tree

There is more to risk and safety planning than dramatic risks: Mental health nurses' risk assessment and safety-management practice.

PubMed

Higgins, Agnes; Doyle, Louise; Downes, Carmel; Morrissey, Jean; Costello, Paul; Brennan, Michael; Nash, Michael

2016-04-01

Risk assessment and safety planning are considered a cornerstone of mental health practice, yet limited research exists into how mental health nurses conceptualize 'risk' and how they engage with risk assessment and safety planning. The aim of the present study was to explore mental health nurses' practices and confidence in risk assessment and safety planning. A self-completed survey was administered to 381 mental health nurses in Ireland. The findings indicate that nurses focus on risk to self and risk to others, with the risk of suicide, self-harm, substance abuse, and violence being most frequently assessed. Risk from others and 'iatrogenic' risk were less frequently considered. Overall, there was limited evidence of recovery-oriented practice in relation to risk. The results demonstrate a lack of meaningful engagement with respect to collaborative safety planning, the identification and inclusion of protective factors, and the inclusion of positive risk-taking opportunities. In addition, respondents report a lack of confidence working with positive risk taking and involving family/carers in the risk-assessment and safety-planning process. Gaps in knowledge about risk-assessment and safety-planning practice, which could be addressed through education, are identified, as are the implications of the findings for practice and research. © 2015 Australian College of Mental Health Nurses Inc.

Risk assessment techniques with applicability in marine engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rudenko, E.; Panaitescu, F. V.; Panaitescu, M.

2015-11-01

Nowadays risk management is a carefully planned process. The task of risk management is organically woven into the general problem of increasing the efficiency of business. Passive attitude to risk and awareness of its existence are replaced by active management techniques. Risk assessment is one of the most important stages of risk management, since for risk management it is necessary first to analyze and evaluate risk. There are many definitions of this notion but in general case risk assessment refers to the systematic process of identifying the factors and types of risk and their quantitative assessment, i.e. risk analysis methodology combines mutually complementary quantitative and qualitative approaches. Purpose of the work: In this paper we will consider as risk assessment technique Fault Tree analysis (FTA). The objectives are: understand purpose of FTA, understand and apply rules of Boolean algebra, analyse a simple system using FTA, FTA advantages and disadvantages. Research and methodology: The main purpose is to help identify potential causes of system failures before the failures actually occur. We can evaluate the probability of the Top event.The steps of this analize are: the system's examination from Top to Down, the use of symbols to represent events, the use of mathematical tools for critical areas, the use of Fault tree logic diagrams to identify the cause of the Top event. Results: In the finally of study it will be obtained: critical areas, Fault tree logical diagrams and the probability of the Top event. These results can be used for the risk assessment analyses.

Ecological risk assessment of boreal sediments affected by metal mining: Metal geochemistry, seasonality, and comparison of several risk assessment methods.

PubMed

Väänänen, Kristiina; Kauppila, Tommi; Mäkinen, Jari; Leppänen, Matti T; Lyytikäinen, Merja; Akkanen, Jarkko

2016-10-01

The mining industry is a common source of environmental metal emissions, which cause long-lasting effects in aquatic ecosystems. Metal risk assessment is challenging due to variations in metal distribution, speciation, and bioavailability. Therefore, seasonal effects must be better understood, especially in boreal regions in which seasonal changes are large. We sampled 4 Finnish lakes and sediments affected by mining for metals and geochemical characteristics in autumn and late winter, to evaluate seasonal changes in metal behavior, the importance of seasonality in risk assessment, and the sensitivity and suitability of different risk assessment methods. We compared metal concentrations in sediment, overlying water, and porewater against environmental quality guidelines (EQGs). We also evaluated the toxicity of metal mixtures using simultaneously extracted metals and an acid volatile sulfides (SEM-AVS) approach together with water quality criteria (US Environmental Protection Agency equilibrium partitioning benchmarks). Finally, site-specific risks for 3 metals (Cu, Ni, Zn) were assessed using 2 biotic ligand models (BLMs). The metal concentrations in the impacted lakes were elevated. During winter stratification, the hypolimnetic O2 saturation levels were low (<6%) and the pH was acidic (3.5-6.5); however, abundant O2 (>89%) and neutral pH (6.1-7.5) were found after the autumnal water overturn. Guidelines were the most conservative benchmark for showing an increased risk of toxicity in the all of the lakes. The situation remained stable between seasons. On the other hand, SEM-AVS, equilibrium partition sediment benchmarks (ESBs), and BLMs provided a clearer distinction between lakes and revealed a seasonal variation in risk among some of the lakes, which evidenced a higher risk during late winter. If a sediment risk assessment is based on the situation in the autumn, the overall risk may be underestimated. It is advisable to carry out sampling and risk assessment

An Etiological Approach to Sexual Offender Assessment: CAse Formulation Incorporating Risk Assessment (CAFIRA).

PubMed

Craig, Leam A; Rettenberger, Martin

2018-05-19

Case formulations (CF) have been the cornerstone of effective practice in clinical psychology since the 1950s and now form one of the core competencies in clinical and forensic assessment. The use of CFs within forensic settings is becoming more relevant when working with offenders who have experienced significant trauma, suffered from personality disorder, and have displayed sexually abusive behavior. Furthermore, most North American and European jurisdictions insist that expert witnesses adopt an idiosyncratic approach to risk assessment and consider the characteristics of the individual as part of a wider formulation of the problem behavior. This article focuses specifically on CF incorporating risk assessment procedures of sexual offenders. While empirical support for the use of risk analysis and formulation in managing offending behavior generally, and sexual offending behavior in particular, is limited, there is mounting evidence to suggest that CF can improve understanding of an individual's problem sexual behaviors. We argue that by integrating risk formulations into the CF provides a conceptually robust link between the etiologically development of the problem sexual behavior and effective assessment and risk management of sexual offenders. As forensic treatment programs increasingly moved toward strength-based approaches, in keeping with the Risk-Need-Responsivity principles Andrews and Bonta (2004), and the Good Lives Model Ward and Stewart (Prof Psychol Res Pract 34:353-60, 2003) of offender rehabilitation, the use of CFs in the assessment, treatment, and management of sexual offenders is indispensable. We present an etiological framework for understanding risk in an individual sexual offender by integrating a case formulation model to include the use of (static, stable, and acute) actuarial and clinical risk assessment measures as well as protective risk factors, referred to as the CAse Formulation Incorporating Risk Assessment (CAFIRA) model.

Reliability and risk assessment of structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, C. C.

1991-01-01

Development of reliability and risk assessment of structural components and structures is a major activity at Lewis Research Center. It consists of five program elements: (1) probabilistic loads; (2) probabilistic finite element analysis; (3) probabilistic material behavior; (4) assessment of reliability and risk; and (5) probabilistic structural performance evaluation. Recent progress includes: (1) the evaluation of the various uncertainties in terms of cumulative distribution functions for various structural response variables based on known or assumed uncertainties in primitive structural variables; (2) evaluation of the failure probability; (3) reliability and risk-cost assessment; and (4) an outline of an emerging approach for eventual certification of man-rated structures by computational methods. Collectively, the results demonstrate that the structural durability/reliability of man-rated structural components and structures can be effectively evaluated by using formal probabilistic methods.

Towards a global water scarcity risk assessment framework: using scenarios and risk distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veldkamp, Ted; Wada, Yoshihide; Aerts, Jeroen; Ward, Philip

2016-04-01

Over the past decades, changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have led to increased water scarcity problems. A large number of studies have shown that these water scarcity conditions will worsen in the near future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based assessments of water scarcity, a framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist at the global scale. This study provides a first step towards such a risk-based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change projections and socioeconomic scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk increases given all future scenarios, up to >56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity in terms of Expected Annual Exposed Population, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels. Covering hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, risk-based methods are well-suited to assess water scarcity adaptation. Completing the presented risk framework therefore offers water managers a promising perspective to increase water security in a well-informed and adaptive manner.

Carbon/graphite fiber risk analysis and assessment study: Assessment of risk to the Lockheed Model L-1011 commercial transport aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daniledes, J.; Koch, J. R.

1980-01-01

The risk associated with the accidental release of carbon/graphite fibers (CF) from fires on commercial transport aircraft incorporating composite materials was assessed. Data are developed to evaluate the potential for CF damage to electrical and electronic equipment, assess the cost risk, and evaluate the hazard to continued operation. The subjects covered include identification of susceptible equipments, determination of infiltration transfer functions, analysis of airport operations, calculation of probabilities of equipment failures, assessment of the cost risk, and evaluation of the hazard to continued operation. The results show the risks associated with CF contamination are negligible through 1993.

Historical perspective on risk assessment in the federal government.

PubMed

Graham, J D

1995-09-01

This article traces the evolution of risk assessment as an essential analytical tool in the federal government. In many programs and agencies, decisions cannot be made without the benefit of information from risk assessment. Although this analytical tool influences important public health and economic decisions, there is widespread dissatisfaction with the day-to-day practice of risk assessment. The article describes the sources of dissatisfaction that have been voiced by scientists, regulators, interest groups and ordinary citizens. Problems include the use of arbitrary exposure scenarios, the misuse of the 'carcinogen' label, the excessive reliance on animal cancer tests, the lack of formal uncertainty analysis the low priority assigned to noncancer endpoints, the poor communication of risk estimates and the neglect of inequities in the distribution of risk. Despite these limitations, the article argues that more danger rests in efforts to make decisions without any risk assessment. Recent Congressional and Administration interest in risk assessment is encouraging because it offers promise to learn from past mistakes and set in motion steps to enhance the risk assessment process.

Military Ecological Risk Assessment Framework (MERAF) for Assessment of Risks of Military Training and Testing to Natural Resources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Suter II, G.W.

2003-06-18

The objective of this research is to provide the DoD with a framework based on a systematic, risk-based approach to assess impacts for management of natural resources in an ecosystem context. This risk assessment framework is consistent with, but extends beyond, the EPA's ecological risk assessment framework, and specifically addresses DoD activities and management needs. MERAF is intended to be consistent with existing procedures for environmental assessment and planning with DoD testing and training. The intention is to supplement these procedures rather than creating new procedural requirements. MERAF is suitable for use for training and testing area assessment and management.more » It does not include human health risks nor does it address specific permitting or compliance requirements, although it may be useful in some of these cases. Use of MERAF fits into the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) process by providing a consistent and rigorous way of organizing and conducting the technical analysis for Environmental Impact Statements (EISs) (Sigal 1993; Carpenter 1995; Canter and Sadler 1997). It neither conflicts with, nor replaces, procedural requirements within the NEPA process or document management processes already in place within DoD.« less

Chemical Risk Assessment: Traditional vs Public Health Perspectives

PubMed Central

Axelrad, Daniel A.; Bahadori, Tina; Bussard, David; Cascio, Wayne E.; Deener, Kacee; Dix, David; Thomas, Russell S.; Kavlock, Robert J.; Burke, Thomas A.

2017-01-01

Preventing adverse health effects of environmental chemical exposure is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. When done efficiently and properly, chemical risk assessment enables risk management actions that minimize the incidence and effects of environmentally induced diseases related to chemical exposure. However, traditional chemical risk assessment is faced with multiple challenges with respect to predicting and preventing disease in human populations, and epidemiological studies increasingly report observations of adverse health effects at exposure levels predicted from animal studies to be safe for humans. This discordance reinforces concerns about the adequacy of contemporary risk assessment practices for protecting public health. It is becoming clear that to protect public health more effectively, future risk assessments will need to use the full range of available data, draw on innovative methods to integrate diverse data streams, and consider health endpoints that also reflect the range of subtle effects and morbidities observed in human populations. Considering these factors, there is a need to reframe chemical risk assessment to be more clearly aligned with the public health goal of minimizing environmental exposures associated with disease. PMID:28520487

High-Rate Communications Outage Recorder Operations for Optimal Payload and Science Telemetry Management Onboard the International Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shell, Michael T.; McElyea, Richard M. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

All International Space Station (ISS) Ku-band telemetry transmits through the High-Rate Communications Outage Recorder (HCOR). The HCOR provides the recording and playback capability for all payload, science, and International Partner data streams transmitting through NASA's Ku-band antenna system. The HCOR is a solid-state memory recorder that provides recording capability to record all eight ISS high-rate data during ISS Loss-of-Signal periods. NASA payloads in the Destiny module are prime users of the HCOR; however, NASDA and ESA will also utilize the HCOR for data capture and playback of their high data rate links from the Kibo and Columbus modules. Marshall Space Flight Center's Payload Operations Integration Center manages the HCOR for nominal functions, including system configurations and playback operations. The purpose of this paper is to present the nominal operations plan for the HCOR and the plans for handling contingency operations affecting payload operations. In addition, the paper will address HCOR operation limitations and the expected effects on payload operations. The HCOR is manifested for ISS delivery on flight 9A with the HCOR backup manifested on flight 11A. The HCOR replaces the Medium-Rate Communications Outage Recorder (MCOR), which has supported payloads since flight 5A.1.

Occupational health policies on risk assessment in Japan.

PubMed

Horie, Seichi

2010-09-01

Industrial Safety and Health Law (ISH Law) of Japan requires abnormalities identified in evaluations of worker health and working environments are reported to occupational physicians, and employers are advised of measures to ensure appropriate accommodations in working environments and work procedures. Since the 1980s, notions of a risk assessment and occupational safety and health management system were expected to further prevent industrial accidents. In 2005, ISH Law stipulated workplace risk assessment using the wording "employers shall endeavor." Following the amendment, multiple documents and guidelines for risk assessment for different work procedures were developed. They require ISH Laws to be implemented fully and workplaces to plan and execute measures to reduce risks, ranking them from those addressing potential hazards to those requiring workers to wear protective articles. A governmental survey in 2005 found the performance of risk assessment was 20.4% and common reasons for not implementing risk assessments were lack of adequate personnel or knowledge. ISH Law specifies criminal penalties for both individuals and organizations. Moreover, under the Labor Contract Law promulgated in 2007, employers are obliged to make reasonable efforts to ensure employee health for foreseeable and avoidable risks. Therefore, enterprises neglecting even the non-binding provisions of guidelines are likely to suffer significant business impact if judged to be responsible for industrial accidents or occupational disease. To promote risk assessment, we must strengthen technical, financial, and physical support from public-service organizations, encourage the dissemination of good practices to reduce risks, and consider additional employer incentives, including relaxed mandatory regulations.

Assessment Tools for the Evaluation of Risk

EPA Science Inventory

ASTER (Assessment Tools for the Evaluation of Risk) was developed by the U.S. EPA Mid-Continent Ecology Division, Duluth, MN to assist regulators in performing ecological risk assessments. ASTER is an integration of the ECOTOXicology Database (ECOTOX; APPROACHES TO RISK ASSESSMENT FOR MULTIPLE CHEMICAL EXPOSURES

EPA Science Inventory

The Environmental Criteria and Assessment Office (ECAO) in Cincinnati has developed health risk assessment methods for chronic exposure to single chemical from a single route of exposure. Risk assessments for carcinogens associated an exposure level with a particular incidence of...

Therapeutic risk management of the suicidal patient: augmenting clinical suicide risk assessment with structured instruments.

PubMed

Homaifar, Beeta; Matarazzo, Bridget; Wortzel, Hal S

2013-09-01

This column is the second in a series presenting a model for therapeutic risk management of the suicidal patient. As discussed in the first part of the series, the model involves several elements including augmenting clinical risk assessment with structured instruments, stratifying risk in terms of both severity and temporality, and developing and documenting a safety plan. This column explores in more detail how to augment clinical risk assessment with structured instruments. Unstructured clinical interviews have the potential to miss important aspects of suicide risk assessment. By augmenting the free-form clinical interview with structured instruments that demonstrate reliability and validity, a more nuanced and multifaceted approach to suicide risk assessment is achieved. Incorporating structured instruments into practice also serves a medicolegal function, since these instruments may become a living part of the medical record, establishing baseline levels of suicidal thoughts and behaviors and facilitating future clinical determinations regarding safety needs. We describe several instruments used in a multidisciplinary suicide consultation service, each of which has demonstrated relevance to suicide risk assessment and screening, ease of administration, and strong psychometric properties. In addition, we emphasize the importance of viewing suicide risk assessment as an ongoing process rather than as a singular event. Finally, we discuss special considerations in the evolving practice of risk assessment.

Probabalistic Risk Assessment of a Turbine Disk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, Jace A.; Thomas, Michael; Goswami, Tarun; Fecke, Ted

Current Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) rotor design certification practices risk assessment using a probabilistic framework focused on only the life-limiting defect location of a component. This method generates conservative approximations of the operational risk. The first section of this article covers a discretization method, which allows for a transition from this relative risk to an absolute risk where the component is discretized into regions called zones. General guidelines were established for the zone-refinement process based on the stress gradient topology in order to reach risk convergence. The second section covers a risk assessment method for predicting the total fatigue life due to fatigue induced damage. The total fatigue life incorporates a dual mechanism approach including the crack initiation life and propagation life while simultaneously determining the associated initial flaw sizes. A microstructure-based model was employed to address uncertainties in material response and relate crack initiation life with crack size, while propagation life was characterized large crack growth laws. The two proposed methods were applied to a representative Inconel 718 turbine disk. The zone-based method reduces the conservative approaches, while showing effects of feature-based inspection on the risk assessment. In the fatigue damage assessment, the predicted initial crack distribution was found to be the most sensitive probabilistic parameter and can be used to establish an enhanced inspection planning.

Descriptive Biomarkers for Assessing Breast Cancer Risk

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-10-01

0721 TITLE: Descriptive Biomarkers for Assessing Breast Cancer Risk PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Kathleen F. Arcaro...Annual 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 15 Sept 2008 - 14 Sept 2009 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Descriptive Biomarkers for Assessing Breast Cancer Risk 5a...SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT The purpose of this research is to determine if exfoliated epithelial cells present in breast milk can be used to assess

Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hill, Monika C.; Leidecker, Henning W.

2010-01-01

The Tin Whisker Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool has been designed to evaluate the risk of metal vapor arcing and to help facilitate a decision toward a researched risk disposition. Users can evaluate a system without having to open up the hardware. This process allows for investigating components at risk rather than spending time and money analyzing every component. The tool points to a risk level and provides direction for appropriate action and documentation.

[Evidence based risk assessment of coronary heart disease].

PubMed

Filzmaier, K

2010-06-01

Coronary heart disease (CHD) poses a special challenge for risk assessments. Various kinds of diagnostic or therapeutic procedures, concomitant diseases, risk factors and symptoms need to be connected logically in order to assess the risk of each individual applicant. "Reinsurance manuals" are available to risk assessors in life insurance for this purpose. Using these manuals, the risk assessor can calculate the risk loadings for applicants with specific pre-existing conditions, e.g., CHD. Various tasks thus fall to the reinsurer, which must be able to give grounds for the increased risk loadings, provide the manuals with a process-oriented structure and simultaneously support the primary insurer's business objectives via an intelligent risk assessment. Taking CHD as an example, the following article explains how these tasks can be solved with the aid of medical and mathematical approaches, and how the insurability of applicants with CHD can be extended via the re-evaluation of risks.

Periodontal Management by Risk Assessment: A Pragmatic Approach.

PubMed

Mullins, Joanna M; Even, Joshua B; White, Joel M

2016-06-01

An evidence-based periodontal disease risk assessment and diagnosis system has been developed and combined with a clinical decision support and management program to improve treatment and measure patient outcomes. There is little agreement on a universally accepted periodontal risk assessment, periodontal diagnosis, and treatment management tool and their incorporation into dental practice to improve patient care. This article highlights the development and use of a practical periodontal management and risk assessment program that can be implemented in dental settings. The approach taken by Willamette Dental Group to develop a periodontal disease risk assessment, periodontal diagnosis, and treatment management tool is described using evidence-based best practices. With goals of standardized treatment interventions while maintaining personalized care and improved communication, this process is described to facilitate its incorporation into other dental settings. Current electronic health records can be leveraged to enhance patient-centered care through the use of risk assessments and standardized guidelines to more effectively assess, diagnose, and treat patients to improve outcomes. Dental hygienists, and other committed providers, with their emphasis on prevention of periodontal disease can be principal drivers in creation and implementation of periodontal risk assessments and personalized treatment planning. Willamette Dental Group believes that such evidence-based tools can advance dentistry to new diagnostic and treatment standards. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Validation of the Choking Risk Assessment and Pneumonia Risk Assessment for adults with Intellectual and Developmental Disability (IDD).

PubMed

Sheppard, Justine Joan; Malandraki, Georgia A; Pifer, Paula; Cuff, Jill; Troche, Michelle; Hemsley, Bronwyn; Balandin, Susan; Mishra, Avinash; Hochman, Roberta

2017-10-01

Risk assessments are needed to identify adults with intellectual and developmental disability (IDD) at high risk of choking and pneumonia. To describe the development and validation of the Choking Risk Assessment (CRA) and the Pneumonia Risk Assessment (PRA) for adults with IDD. Test items were identified through literature review and focus groups. Five-year retrospective chart reviews identified a positive choking group (PCG), a negative choking group (NCG), a positive pneumonia group (PPG), and a negative pneumonia group (NPG). Participants were tested with the CRA and PRA by clinicians blind to these testing conditions. The CRA and PRA differentiated the PCG (n=93) from the NCG (n=526) and the PPG (n=63) from the NPG (n=209) with high specificity (0.91 and 0.92 respectively) and moderate to average sensitivity (0.53 and 0.62 respectively). Further analyses revealed associations between clinical diagnoses of dysphagia and choking (p=0.043), and pneumonia (p<0.001). The CRA and PRA are reliable, valid risk indicators for choking and pneumonia in adults with IDD. Precautions for mitigating choking and pneumonia risks can be applied selectively thus avoiding undue impacts on quality of life and unnecessary interventions for low risk individuals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Colon Cancer Risk Assessment - Gauss Program

Cancer.gov

An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.

A Framework for Assessing Health Risk of Environmental ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA released the final report entitled, A Framework for Assessing Health Risk of Environmental Exposures to Children, which examines the impact of potential exposures during developmental lifestages and subsequent lifestages, while emphasizing the iterative nature of the analysis phase with a multidisciplinary team. Major findings and conclusions: This report outlines the framework in which mode of action(s) (MOA) can be considered across life stages. The framework is based upon existing approaches adopted in the Framework on Cumulative Risk Assessment and identifies existing guidance, guidelines and policy papers that relate to children's health risk assessment. It emphasizes the importance of an iterative approach between hazard, dose response, and exposure analyses. In addition, it includes discussion of principles for weight of evidence consideration across life stages for the hazard characterization database.Key science/assessment issues:This framework addresses the questions of why and how an improved children's health risk assessment will strengthen the overall risk assessment process across the Agency. This approach improves the scientific explanation of children's risk and will add value by: 1) providing for a more complete evaluation of the potential for vulnerability at different life stages, including a focus on the underlying biological events and critical developmental periods for incorporating MOA considerations; 2) evaluating of the potential fo

Differences between Teacher Reports on Universal Risk Assessments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith-Millman, Marissa K.; Flaspohler, Paul D.; Maras, Melissa A.; Splett, Joni Williams; Warmbold, Kristy; Dinnen, Hannah; Luebbe, Aaron

2017-01-01

Some universal behavioural screening processes require classroom teachers to complete a risk assessment measure on each student in their class, leading to a possible, but unexplored, problem: risk assessment scores may be influenced by the teacher completing the measure. The current study investigated whether teacher-reported risk assessment…

TSCA Work Plan Chemical Risk Assessment: 1 ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

1-Bromopropane (CASRN 106-94-5): or 1-BP is a volatile organic chemical that is considered moderately persistent in the environment but does not have the potential to bioaccumulate in fish or other animals. The majority of the 1-BP production volume (~ 47%) is used as a vapor degreaser for optics electronics, plastics, and metals. 1-BP also is used as an aerosol solvent in cleaning products, as a spray fixative in arts and crafts, and as a spot cleaner in various industrial/commercial/consumer sectors. Focus of the Risk Assessment: The assessment will focus on uses of 1-BP in commercial (i.e., vapor degreasing, spray adhesives, and dry cleaning) and consumer applications (i.e., aerosol solvent cleaners and spray adhesives). Given the range of endpoints (i.e., cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), susceptible populations are expected to include adults (including pregnant women) in commercial uses and children (as bystanders) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women) for consumer uses. Thus, the assessment will focus on all humans/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its work on the a

From Risk Assessment to Risk Management: Matching Interventions to Adolescent Offenders’ Strengths and Vulnerabilities

PubMed Central

Singh, Jay P.; Desmarais, Sarah L.; Sellers, Brian G.; Hylton, Tatiana; Tirotti, Melissa; Van Dorn, Richard A.

2013-01-01

Though considerable research has examined the validity of risk assessment tools in predicting adverse outcomes in justice-involved adolescents, the extent to which risk assessments are translated into risk management strategies and, importantly, the association between this link and adverse outcomes has gone largely unexamined. To address these shortcomings, the Risk-Need-Responsivity (RNR) model was used to examine associations between identified strengths and vulnerabilities, interventions, and institutional outcomes for justice-involved youth. Data were collected from risk assessments completed using the Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability: Adolescent Version (START:AV) for 120 adolescent offenders (96 boys and 24 girls). Interventions and outcomes were extracted from institutional records. Mixed evidence of adherence to RNR principles was found. Accordant to the risk principle, adolescent offenders judged to have more strengths had more strength-based interventions in their service plans, though adolescent offenders with more vulnerabilities did not have more interventions targeting their vulnerabilities. With respect to the need and responsivity principles, vulnerabilities and strengths identified as particularly relevant to the individual youth's risk of adverse outcomes were addressed in the service plans about half and a quarter of the time, respectively. Greater adherence to the risk and need principles was found to predict significantly the likelihood of externalizing outcomes. Findings suggest some gaps between risk assessment and risk management and highlight the potential usefulness of strength-based approaches to intervention. PMID:25346561

76 FR 37770 - Monsanto Co.; Availability of Petition, Plant Pest Risk Assessment, and Environmental Assessment...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-06-28

...] Monsanto Co.; Availability of Petition, Plant Pest Risk Assessment, and Environmental Assessment for... environmental assessment, or plant pest risk assessment, contact Ms. Cindy Eck at (301) 734-0667; email: cynthia... event MON 87701 is unlikely to pose a plant pest risk. APHIS has also prepared a draft environmental...

Disease state fingerprint for fall risk assessment.

PubMed

Similä, Heidi; Immonen, Milla

2014-01-01

Fall prevention is an important and complex multifactorial challenge, since one third of people over 65 years old fall at least once every year. A novel application of Disease State Fingerprint (DSF) algorithm is presented for holistic visualization of fall risk factors and identifying persons with falls history or decreased level of physical functioning based on fall risk assessment data. The algorithm is tested with data from 42 older adults, that went through a comprehensive fall risk assessment. Within the study population the Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) scale score, Berg Balance Scale (BBS) score and the number of drugs in use were the three most relevant variables, that differed between the fallers and non-fallers. This study showed that the DSF visualization is beneficial in inspection of an individual's significant fall risk factors, since people have problems in different areas and one single assessment scale is not enough to expose all the people at risk.

Risk and Risk Assessment in Environmental Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chiras, Daniel D.

1982-01-01

Risk assessment (the identification of hazards, the determination of the probability of a hazardous event occurring, and an estimation of the severity of such an event's occurrence) is suggested as a technique to be used to analyze current issues in environmental education in an objective manner. (PEB)

Microbiological risk assessment for personal care products.

PubMed

Stewart, S E; Parker, M D; Amézquita, A; Pitt, T L

2016-12-01

Regulatory decisions regarding microbiological safety of cosmetics and personal care products are primarily hazard-based, where the presence of a potential pathogen determines decision-making. This contrasts with the Food industry where it is a commonplace to use a risk-based approach for ensuring microbiological safety. A risk-based approach allows consideration of the degree of exposure to assess unacceptable health risks. As there can be a number of advantages in using a risk-based approach to safety, this study explores the Codex Alimentarius (Codex) four-step Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) framework frequently used in the Food industry and examines how it can be applied to the safety assessment of personal care products. The hazard identification and hazard characterization steps (one and two) of the Codex MRA framework consider the main microorganisms of concern. These are addressed by reviewing the current industry guidelines for objectionable organisms and analysing reports of contaminated products notified by government agencies over a recent 5-year period, together with examples of reported outbreaks. Data related to estimation of exposure (step three) are discussed, and examples of possible calculations and references are included. The fourth step, performed by the risk assessor (risk characterization), is specific to each assessment and brings together the information from the first three steps to assess the risk. Although there are very few documented uses of the MRA approach for personal care products, this study illustrates that it is a practicable and sound approach for producing products that are safe by design. It can be helpful in the context of designing products and processes going to market and with setting of microbiological specifications. Additionally, it can be applied reactively to facilitate decision-making when contaminated products are released on to the marketplace. Currently, the knowledge available may only allow a

Risk Assess: What's Safe? What's Not? Why?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Duffy, Roslyn

2010-01-01

"Risk assess!" The words sound like a verbal stop sign. "Stop! Think! Consider!" In this article, the author presents an example of risk assessing that came from a nature education conference in Crieff, Scotland, that she attended as part of an international group of educators seeking ways to increase children's experiences…

Rock Slide Risk Assessment: A Semi-Quantitative Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duzgun, H. S. B.

2009-04-01

Rock slides can be better managed by systematic risk assessments. Any risk assessment methodology for rock slides involves identification of rock slide risk components, which are hazard, elements at risk and vulnerability. For a quantitative/semi-quantitative risk assessment for rock slides, a mathematical value the risk has to be computed and evaluated. The quantitative evaluation of risk for rock slides enables comparison of the computed risk with the risk of other natural and/or human-made hazards and providing better decision support and easier communication for the decision makers. A quantitative/semi-quantitative risk assessment procedure involves: Danger Identification, Hazard Assessment, Elements at Risk Identification, Vulnerability Assessment, Risk computation, Risk Evaluation. On the other hand, the steps of this procedure require adaptation of existing or development of new implementation methods depending on the type of landslide, data availability, investigation scale and nature of consequences. In study, a generic semi-quantitative risk assessment (SQRA) procedure for rock slides is proposed. The procedure has five consecutive stages: Data collection and analyses, hazard assessment, analyses of elements at risk and vulnerability and risk assessment. The implementation of the procedure for a single rock slide case is illustrated for a rock slope in Norway. Rock slides from mountain Ramnefjell to lake Loen are considered to be one of the major geohazards in Norway. Lake Loen is located in the inner part of Nordfjord in Western Norway. Ramnefjell Mountain is heavily jointed leading to formation of vertical rock slices with height between 400-450 m and width between 7-10 m. These slices threaten the settlements around Loen Valley and tourists visiting the fjord during summer season, as the released slides have potential of creating tsunami. In the past, several rock slides had been recorded from the Mountain Ramnefjell between 1905 and 1950. Among them

Biological Based Risk Assessment for Space Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.

2011-01-01

Exposures from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) - made up of high-energy protons and high-energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, and solar particle events (SPEs) - comprised largely of low- to medium-energy protons are the primary health concern for astronauts for long-term space missions. Experimental studies have shown that HZE nuclei produce both qualitative and quantitative differences in biological effects compared to terrestrial radiation, making risk assessments for cancer and degenerative risks, such as central nervous system effects and heart disease, highly uncertain. The goal for space radiation protection at NASA is to be able to reduce the uncertainties in risk assessments for Mars exploration to be small enough to ensure acceptable levels of risks are not exceeded and to adequately assess the efficacy of mitigation measures such as shielding or biological countermeasures. We review the recent BEIR VII and UNSCEAR-2006 models of cancer risks and their uncertainties. These models are shown to have an inherent 2-fold uncertainty as defined by ratio of the 95% percent confidence level to the mean projection, even before radiation quality is considered. In order to overcome the uncertainties in these models, new approaches to risk assessment are warranted. We consider new computational biology approaches to modeling cancer risks. A basic program of research that includes stochastic descriptions of the physics and chemistry of radiation tracks and biochemistry of metabolic pathways, to emerging biological understanding of cellular and tissue modifications leading to cancer is described.

Risk Assessment of Shellfish Toxins

PubMed Central

Munday, Rex; Reeve, John

2013-01-01

Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved. PMID:24226039

Risk assessment of vector-borne diseases for public health governance.

PubMed

Sedda, L; Morley, D W; Braks, M A H; De Simone, L; Benz, D; Rogers, D J

2014-12-01

In the context of public health, risk governance (or risk analysis) is a framework for the assessment and subsequent management and/or control of the danger posed by an identified disease threat. Generic frameworks in which to carry out risk assessment have been developed by various agencies. These include monitoring, data collection, statistical analysis and dissemination. Due to the inherent complexity of disease systems, however, the generic approach must be modified for individual, disease-specific risk assessment frameworks. The analysis was based on the review of the current risk assessments of vector-borne diseases adopted by the main Public Health organisations (OIE, WHO, ECDC, FAO, CDC etc…). Literature, legislation and statistical assessment of the risk analysis frameworks. This review outlines the need for the development of a general public health risk assessment method for vector-borne diseases, in order to guarantee that sufficient information is gathered to apply robust models of risk assessment. Stochastic (especially spatial) methods, often in Bayesian frameworks are now gaining prominence in standard risk assessment procedures because of their ability to assess accurately model uncertainties. Risk assessment needs to be addressed quantitatively wherever possible, and submitted with its quality assessment in order to enable successful public health measures to be adopted. In terms of current practice, often a series of different models and analyses are applied to the same problem, with results and outcomes that are difficult to compare because of the unknown model and data uncertainties. Therefore, the risk assessment areas in need of further research are identified in this article. Copyright © 2014 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Incorporating Nonchemical Stressors Into Cumulative Risk Assessments

PubMed Central

Rider, Cynthia V.; Dourson, Michael L.; Hertzberg, Richard C.; Mumtaz, Moiz M.; Price, Paul S.; Simmons, Jane Ellen

2012-01-01

The role of nonchemical stressors in modulating the human health risk associated with chemical exposures is an area of increasing attention. On 9 March 2011, a workshop titled “Approaches for Incorporating Nonchemical Stressors into Cumulative Risk Assessment” took place during the 50th Anniversary Annual Society of Toxicology Meeting in Washington D.C. Objectives of the workshop included describing the current state of the science from various perspectives (i.e., regulatory, exposure, modeling, and risk assessment) and presenting expert opinions on currently available methods for incorporating nonchemical stressors into cumulative risk assessments. Herein, distinct frameworks for characterizing exposure to, joint effects of, and risk associated with chemical and nonchemical stressors are discussed. PMID:22345310

Cultural heuristics in risk assessment of HIV/AIDS.

PubMed

Bailey, Ajay; Hutter, Inge

2006-01-01

Behaviour change models in HIV prevention tend to consider that risky sexual behaviours reflect risk assessments and that by changing risk assessments behaviour can be changed. Risk assessment is however culturally constructed. Individuals use heuristics or bounded cognitive devices derived from broader cultural meaning systems to rationalize uncertainty. In this study, we identify some of the cultural heuristics used by migrant men in Goa, India to assess their risk of HIV infection from different sexual partners. Data derives from a series of in-depth interviews and a locally informed survey. Cultural heuristics identified include visual heuristics, heuristics of gender roles, vigilance and trust. The paper argues that, for more culturally informed HIV/AIDS behaviour change interventions, knowledge of cultural heuristics is essential.

US EPA's Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

BackgroundThe ERASC provides technical information and addresses scientific questions of concern or interest on topics relevant to ecological risk assessment at hazardous waste sites for EPA's Office of Solid Waste and Emergency Response (OSWER) personnel and the Office of Resource Conservation and Recovery (ORCR) staff. Requests are channeled to ERASC through the Ecological Risk Assessment Forum (ERAF). To assess emerging and complex scientific issues that require expert judgment, the ERASC relies on the expertise of scientists and engineers located throughout EPA's Office of Research and Development (ORD) labs and centers.ResponseERASC develops responses that reflect the state of the science for ecological risk assessment and also provides a communication point for the distribution of the responses to other interested parties. For further information, contact Ecology_ERASC@epa.gov or call 513-569-7940.

Cumulative Assessment of Risk from Pesticides

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA protects human health and the environment by evaluating the risk associated with pesticides before allowing them to be used in the United States. Learn about the tools and processes used in risk assessment for pesticides.

Pesticide Science and Assessing Pesticide Risks

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA protects human health and the environment by evaluating the risk associated with pesticides before allowing them to be used in the United States. Learn about the tools and processes used in risk assessment for pesticides.

Assessing Human Health Risk from Pesticides

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA protects human health and the environment by evaluating the risk associated with pesticides before allowing them to be used in the United States. Learn about the tools and processes used in risk assessment for pesticides.

Evaluating the Risk of Child Abuse: The Child Abuse Risk Assessment Scale (CARAS)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chan, Ko Ling

2012-01-01

The present study developed the Child Abuse Risk Assessment Scale (CARAS), an actuarial instrument for the assessment of the risk of physical child abuse. Data of 2,363 Chinese parents (47.7% male) living in Hong Kong were used in the analyses. Participants were individually interviewed with a questionnaire assessing their perpetration of child…

RapidTox - Tools for Rapid Risk Assessments (BOSC)

EPA Science Inventory

Risk assessments are needed for hundreds to thousands of chemicals, many of which do not have the rich data sets required, for instance, for IRIS or PPRTV assessments. EPA program offices and groups (OLEM, OPP Inerts, OPPT and others) still need to carry out to risk assessments f...

Laboratory Biosafety and Biosecurity Risk Assessment Technical Guidance Document

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Astuto-Gribble, Lisa M; Caskey, Susan Adele

2014-07-01

The purpose of this document is threefold: 1) to describe the laboratory bio safety and biosecurity risk assessment process and its conceptual framework; 2) provide detailed guidance and suggested methodologies on how to conduct a risk assessment; and 3) present some practical risk assessment process strategies using realistic laboratory scenarios.

Embedding climate change risk assessment within a governance context

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Preston, Benjamin L

Climate change adaptation is increasingly being framed in the context of climate risk management. This has contributed to the proliferation of climate change vulnerability and/or risk assessments as means of supporting institutional decision-making regarding adaptation policies and measures. To date, however, little consideration has been given to how such assessment projects and programs interact with governance systems to facilitate or hinder the implementation of adaptive responses. An examination of recent case studies involving Australian local governments reveals two key linkages between risk assessment and the governance of adaptation. First, governance systems influence how risk assessment processes are conducted, by whommore » they are conducted, and whom they are meant to inform. Australia s governance system emphasizes evidence-based decision-making that reinforces a knowledge deficit model of decision support. Assessments are often carried out by external experts on behalf of local government, with limited participation by relevant stakeholders and/or civil society. Second, governance systems influence the extent to which the outputs from risk assessment activities are translated into adaptive responses and outcomes. Technical information regarding risk is often stranded by institutional barriers to adaptation including poor uptake of information, competition on the policy agenda, and lack of sufficient entitlements. Yet, risk assessments can assist in bringing such barriers to the surface, where they can be debated and resolved. In fact, well-designed risk assessments can contribute to multi-loop learning by institutions, and that reflexive problem orientation may be one of the more valuable benefits of assessment.« less

Water risk assessment in China based on the improved Water Risk Filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, G.; Yaqin, Q.; Qiong, L.; Cunwen, N.; Na, W.; Jiajia, L.; Jongde, G.; Na, Z.; Xiangyi, D.

2014-09-01

Finding an effective way to deal with the water crisis and the relationship between water and development is a major issue for all levels of government and different economic sectors across the world. Scientific understanding of water risk is the basis for achieving a scientific relationship between water and development, and water risk assessment is currently an important research focus. To effectively deal with the global water crisis, the World Wide Fund for Nature and German Investment and Development Company Limited proposed the concept of water risk and released an online Water Risk Filter in March 2012, which has been applied to at least 85 countries. To comprehensively and accurately reflect the situation of water risk in China, this study adjusts the water risk assessment indicators in the Water Risk Filter, taking the actual situation in China and the difficulty of obtaining the information about the indicators into account, and proposes an index system for water risk evaluation for China which consists of physical risk, regulatory risk and reputational risk. The improved Water Risk Filter is further used to assess the sources and causes of the water risks in 10 first-class and seven second-class water resource areas (WRAs). The results indicate that the water risk for the whole country is generally medium and low, while those for different regions in the country vary greatly, and those for southern regions are generally lower than those for northern regions. Government regulatory and policy implementation as well as media supervision in northern regions should be strengthened to reduce the water risk. The research results may provide decision support and references for both governments and industrial enterprises in identifying water risks, formulating prevention and control policies, and improving water resources management in China.

Revised Methods for Worker Risk Assessment

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA is updating and changing the way it approaches pesticide risk assessments. This new approach will result in more comprehensive and consistent evaluation of potential risks of food use pesticides, non-food use pesticides, and occupational exposures.

Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nachtigal, Noel M.; Fruetel, Julia A.; Gleason, Nathaniel J.

The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in themore » risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.« less

III: Use of biomarkers as Risk Indicators in Environmental Risk Assessment of oil based discharges offshore.

PubMed

Sanni, Steinar; Lyng, Emily; Pampanin, Daniela M

2017-06-01

Offshore oil and gas activities are required not to cause adverse environmental effects, and risk based management has been established to meet environmental standards. In some risk assessment schemes, Risk Indicators (RIs) are parameters to monitor the development of risk affecting factors. RIs have not yet been established in the Environmental Risk Assessment procedures for management of oil based discharges offshore. This paper evaluates the usefulness of biomarkers as RIs, based on their properties, existing laboratory biomarker data and assessment methods. Data shows several correlations between oil concentrations and biomarker responses, and assessment principles exist that qualify biomarkers for integration into risk procedures. Different ways that these existing biomarkers and methods can be applied as RIs in a probabilistic risk assessment system when linked with whole organism responses are discussed. This can be a useful approach to integrate biomarkers into probabilistic risk assessment related to oil based discharges, representing a potential supplement to information that biomarkers already provide about environmental impact and risk related to these kind of discharges. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Application of Risk Assessment Tools in the Continuous Risk Management (CRM) Process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, Paul S.

2002-01-01

Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is currently implementing the Continuous Risk Management (CRM) Program developed by the Carnegie Mellon University and recommended by NASA as the Risk Management (RM) implementation approach. The four most frequently used risk assessment tools in the center are: (a) Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Hazard Analysis (HA), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), and Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA). There are some guidelines for selecting the type of risk assessment tools during the project formulation phase of a project, but there is not enough guidance as to how to apply these tools in the Continuous Risk Management process (CRM). But the ways the safety and risk assessment tools are used make a significant difference in the effectiveness in the risk management function. Decisions regarding, what events are to be included in the analysis, to what level of details should the analysis be continued, make significant difference in the effectiveness of risk management program. Tools of risk analysis also depends on the phase of a project e.g. at the initial phase of a project, when not much data are available on hardware, standard FMEA cannot be applied; instead a functional FMEA may be appropriate. This study attempted to provide some directives to alleviate the difficulty in applying FTA, PRA, and FMEA in the CRM process. Hazard Analysis was not included in the scope of the study due to the short duration of the summer research project.

A new hypervolume approach for assessing environmental risks

Treesearch

Denys Yemshanov; Frank H. Koch; Bo Lu; Ronald Fournier; Gericke Cook; Jean J. Turgeon

2017-01-01

Assessing risks of uncertain but potentially damaging events, such as environmental disturbances, disease outbreaks and pest invasions, is a key analytical step that informs subsequent decisions about how to respond to these events. We present a continuous risk measure that can be used to assess and prioritize environmental risks from uncertain data in a geographical...

[Benefit-risk assessment of vaccination strategies].

PubMed

Hanslik, Thomas; Boëlle, Pierre Yves

2007-04-01

This article summarises the various stages of the risk/benefit assessment of vaccination strategies. Establishing the awaited effectiveness of a vaccination strategy supposes to have an epidemiologic description of the disease to be prevented. The effectiveness of the vaccine strategy will be thus expressed in numbers of cases, hospitalizations or deaths avoided. The effectiveness can be direct, expressed as the reduction of the incidence of the infectious disease in the vaccinated subjects compared to unvaccinated subjects. It can also be indirect, the unvaccinated persons being protected by the suspension in circulation of the pathogenic agent, consecutive to the implementation of the vaccination campaign. The risks of vaccination related to the adverse effects detected during the clinical trials preceding marketing are well quantified, but other risks can occur after marketing: e.g., serious and unexpected adverse effects detected by vaccinovigilance systems, or risk of increase in the age of cases if the vaccination coverage is insufficient. The medico-economic evaluation forms a part of the risks/benefit assessment, by positioning the vaccine strategy comparatively with other interventions for health. Epidemiologic and vaccinovigilance informations must be updated very regularly, which underlines the need for having an operational and reliable real time monitoring system to accompany the vaccination strategies. Lastly, in the context of uncertainty which often accompanies the risks/benefit assessments, it is important that an adapted communication towards the public and the doctors is planned.

Assessing Academic Risk of Student-Athletes: Applicability of the NCAA Graduation Risk Overview Model to GPA

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, James

2013-01-01

In an effort to standardize academic risk assessment, the NCAA developed the graduation risk overview (GRO) model. Although this model was designed to assess graduation risk, its ability to predict grade-point average (GPA) remained unknown. Therefore, 134 individual risk assessments were made to determine GRO model effectiveness in the…

External Threat Risk Assessment Algorithm (ExTRAA)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Powell, Troy C.

Two risk assessment algorithms and philosophies have been augmented and combined to form a new algorit hm, the External Threat Risk Assessment Algorithm (ExTRAA), that allows for effective and statistically sound analysis of external threat sources in relation to individual attack methods . In addition to the attack method use probability and the attack method employment consequence, t he concept of defining threat sources is added to the risk assessment process. Sample data is tabulated and depicted in radar plots and bar graphs for algorithm demonstration purposes. The largest success of ExTRAA is its ability to visualize the kind ofmore » r isk posed in a given situation using the radar plot method.« less

A risk assessment methodology for critical transportation infrastructure.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-01-01

Infrastructure protection typifies a problem of risk assessment and management in a large-scale system. This study offers a methodological framework to identify, prioritize, assess, and manage risks. It includes the following major considerations: (1...

Assessment and management of suicide risk in primary care.

PubMed

Saini, Pooja; While, David; Chantler, Khatidja; Windfuhr, Kirsten; Kapur, Navneet

2014-01-01

Risk assessment and management of suicidal patients is emphasized as a key component of care in specialist mental health services, but these issues are relatively unexplored in primary care services. To examine risk assessment and management in primary and secondary care in a clinical sample of individuals who were in contact with mental health services and died by suicide. Data collection from clinical proformas, case records, and semistructured face-to-face interviews with general practitioners. Primary and secondary care data were available for 198 of the 336 cases (59%). The overall agreement in the rating of risk between services was poor (overall κ = .127, p = .10). Depression, care setting (after discharge), suicidal ideation at last contact, and a history of self-harm were associated with a rating of higher risk. Suicide prevention policies were available in 25% of primary care practices, and 33% of staff received training in suicide risk assessments. Risk is difficult to predict, but the variation in risk assessment between professional groups may reflect poor communication. Further research is required to understand this. There appears to be a relative lack of suicide risk assessment training in primary care.

Risk Assessment and Risk Management in Offenders with Intellectual Disabilities: Are We There Yet?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pouls, Claudia; Jeandarme, Inge

2015-01-01

Research on risk assessment and risk management in offenders with intellectual disabilities (OIDs), although far behind compared to the mainstream offender literature, is now expanding. The current review provides an overview of the predictive value of risk assessment and treatment outcome monitoring tools developed for both mainstream forensic…

Managing industrial risk--having a tested and proven system to prevent and assess risk.

PubMed

Heller, Stephen

2006-03-17

Some relatively easy techniques exist to improve the risk picture/profile to aid in preventing losses. Today with the advent of computer system resources, focusing on specific aspects of risk through systematic scoring and comparison, the risk analysis can be relatively easy to achieve. Techniques like these demonstrate how working experience and common sense can be combined mathematically into a flexible risk management tool or risk model for analyzing risk. The risk assessment methodology provided by companies today is no longer the ideas and practices of one group or even one company. It is reflective of the practice of many companies, as well as the ideas and expertise of academia and government regulators. The use of multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques for making critical decisions has been recognized for many years for a variety of purposes. In today's computer age, the easy accessing and user-friendly nature for using these techniques, makes them a favorable choice for use in the risk assessment environment. The new user of these methodologies should find many ideas directly applicable to his or her needs when approaching risk decision making. The user should find their ideas readily adapted, with slight modification, to accurately reflect a specific situation using MCDM techniques. This makes them an attractive feature for use in assessment and risk modeling. The main advantage of decision making techniques, such as MCDM, is that in the early stages of a risk assessment, accurate data on industrial risk, and failures are lacking. In most cases, it is still insufficient to perform a thorough risk assessment using purely statistical concepts. The practical advantages towards deviating from strict data-driven protocol seem to outweigh the drawbacks. Industry failure data often comes at a high cost when a loss occurs. We can benefit from this unfortunate acquisition of data through the continuous refining of our decisions by incorporating this new

Assessing risk of reoffending in adolescents who have committed a sexual offense: the accuracy of clinical judgments after completion of risk assessment instruments.

PubMed

Elkovitch, Natasha; Viljoen, Jodi L; Scalora, Mario J; Ullman, Daniel

2008-01-01

As courts often rely on clinicians when differentiating between sexually abusive youth at a low versus high risk of reoffense, understanding factors that contribute to accuracy in assessment of risk is imperative. The present study built on existing research by examining (1) the accuracy of clinical judgments of risk made after completing risk assessment instruments, (2) whether instrument-informed clinical judgments made with a high degree of confidence are associated with greater accuracy, and (3) the risk assessment instruments and subscales most predictive of clinical judgments. Raters assessed each youth's (n = 166) risk of reoffending after completing the SAVRY and J-SOAP-II. Raters were not able to predict detected cases of either sexual recidivism or nonsexual violent recidivism above chance, and a high degree of rater confidence was not associated with higher levels of accuracy. Total scores on the J-SOAP-II were predictive of instrument-informed clinical judgments of sexual risk, and total scores on the SAVRY of nonsexual risk.

Environmental Risk Assessment Strategy for Nanomaterials.

PubMed

Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Semenzin, Elena; Nowack, Bernd; Hunt, Neil; Hristozov, Danail; Marcomini, Antonio; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Jiménez, Araceli Sánchez; Landsiedel, Robert; Tran, Lang; Oomen, Agnes G; Bos, Peter M J; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin

2017-10-19

An Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) for nanomaterials (NMs) is outlined in this paper. Contrary to other recent papers on the subject, the main data requirements, models and advancement within each of the four risk assessment domains are described, i.e., in the: (i) materials, (ii) release, fate and exposure, (iii) hazard and (iv) risk characterisation domains. The material, which is obviously the foundation for any risk assessment, should be described according to the legislatively required characterisation data. Characterisation data will also be used at various levels within the ERA, e.g., exposure modelling. The release, fate and exposure data and models cover the input for environmental distribution models in order to identify the potential (PES) and relevant exposure scenarios (RES) and, subsequently, the possible release routes, both with regard to which compartment(s) NMs are distributed in line with the factors determining the fate within environmental compartment. The initial outcome in the risk characterisation will be a generic Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC), but a refined PEC can be obtained by applying specific exposure models for relevant media. The hazard information covers a variety of representative, relevant and reliable organisms and/or functions, relevant for the RES and enabling a hazard characterisation. The initial outcome will be hazard characterisation in test systems allowing estimating a Predicted No-Effect concentration (PNEC), either based on uncertainty factors or on a NM adapted version of the Species Sensitivity Distributions approach. The risk characterisation will either be based on a deterministic risk ratio approach (i.e., PEC/PNEC) or an overlay of probability distributions, i.e., exposure and hazard distributions, using the nano relevant models.

Environmental Risk Assessment Strategy for Nanomaterials

PubMed Central

Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J.; Nowack, Bernd; Hunt, Neil; Hristozov, Danail; Marcomini, Antonio; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Jiménez, Araceli Sánchez; Landsiedel, Robert; Tran, Lang; Oomen, Agnes G.; Bos, Peter M. J.

2017-01-01

An Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) for nanomaterials (NMs) is outlined in this paper. Contrary to other recent papers on the subject, the main data requirements, models and advancement within each of the four risk assessment domains are described, i.e., in the: (i) materials, (ii) release, fate and exposure, (iii) hazard and (iv) risk characterisation domains. The material, which is obviously the foundation for any risk assessment, should be described according to the legislatively required characterisation data. Characterisation data will also be used at various levels within the ERA, e.g., exposure modelling. The release, fate and exposure data and models cover the input for environmental distribution models in order to identify the potential (PES) and relevant exposure scenarios (RES) and, subsequently, the possible release routes, both with regard to which compartment(s) NMs are distributed in line with the factors determining the fate within environmental compartment. The initial outcome in the risk characterisation will be a generic Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC), but a refined PEC can be obtained by applying specific exposure models for relevant media. The hazard information covers a variety of representative, relevant and reliable organisms and/or functions, relevant for the RES and enabling a hazard characterisation. The initial outcome will be hazard characterisation in test systems allowing estimating a Predicted No-Effect concentration (PNEC), either based on uncertainty factors or on a NM adapted version of the Species Sensitivity Distributions approach. The risk characterisation will either be based on a deterministic risk ratio approach (i.e., PEC/PNEC) or an overlay of probability distributions, i.e., exposure and hazard distributions, using the nano relevant models. PMID:29048395

Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen

2013-04-01

Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits

Risk assessment guidance for Superfund: Volume 1 -- Human health evaluation manual. Supplement to Part A: Community involvement in Superfund risk assessments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1999-03-01

The purpose of the guidance document is to provide the site team--risk assessor, remedial project manager (RPM), and community involvement coordinator--with information to improve community involvement in the Superfund risk assessment process. Specifically, the document: provides suggestions for how Superfund staff and community members can work together during the early stages of Superfund cleanup; identifies where, within the framework of the human health risk assessment methodology, community input can augment and improve EPA`s estimates of exposure and risk; recommends questions the site team should ask the community; and illustrates why community involvement is valuable during the human health assessment atmore » Superfund sites.« less

Environmental Risk Assessment System for Phosphogypsum Tailing Dams

PubMed Central

Sun, Xin; Tang, Xiaolong; Yi, Honghong; Li, Kai; Zhou, Lianbi; Xu, Xianmang

2013-01-01

This paper may be of particular interest to the readers as it provides a new environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams. In this paper, we studied the phosphogypsum tailing dams which include characteristics of the pollution source, environmental risk characteristics and evaluation requirements to identify the applicable environmental risk assessment methods. Two analytical methods, that is, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy logic, were used to handle the complexity of the environmental and nonquantitative data. Using our assessment method, different risk factors can be ranked according to their contributions to the environmental risk, thereby allowing the calculation of their relative priorities during decision making. Thus, environmental decision-makers can use this approach to develop alternative management strategies for proposed, ongoing, and completed PG tailing dams. PMID:24382947

Environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams.

PubMed

Sun, Xin; Ning, Ping; Tang, Xiaolong; Yi, Honghong; Li, Kai; Zhou, Lianbi; Xu, Xianmang

2013-01-01

This paper may be of particular interest to the readers as it provides a new environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams. In this paper, we studied the phosphogypsum tailing dams which include characteristics of the pollution source, environmental risk characteristics and evaluation requirements to identify the applicable environmental risk assessment methods. Two analytical methods, that is, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy logic, were used to handle the complexity of the environmental and nonquantitative data. Using our assessment method, different risk factors can be ranked according to their contributions to the environmental risk, thereby allowing the calculation of their relative priorities during decision making. Thus, environmental decision-makers can use this approach to develop alternative management strategies for proposed, ongoing, and completed PG tailing dams.

Assessing risk of draft survey by AHP method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Guangcheng; Zhao, Kuimin; Zuo, Zhaoying; Liu, Gang; Jian, Binguo; Lin, Yan; Fan, Yukun; Wang, Fei

2018-04-01

The paper assesses the risks of vessel floating in the seawater for draft survey by using the analytic hierarchy process. On this basis, the paper established draft survey risk index from the view of draft reading, ballast water, fresh water, and calculation process and so on. Then the paper proposes the method to deal with risk assessment using one concrete sample.

NANOTECHNOLOGY RISK ASSESSMENT CASE STUDY WORKSHOPS

EPA Science Inventory

Nanotechnology is expected to present both benefits and risks to human health and the environment. The assessment of risks related to nanotechnology requires information on the potential for exposure to, and adverse effects of, nanomaterials and their by-products. To help ensure...

Bayesian Networks for enterprise risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonafede, C. E.; Giudici, P.

2007-08-01

According to different typologies of activity and priority, risks can assume diverse meanings and it can be assessed in different ways. Risk, in general, is measured in terms of a probability combination of an event (frequency) and its consequence (impact). To estimate the frequency and the impact (severity) historical data or expert opinions (either qualitative or quantitative data) are used. Moreover, qualitative data must be converted in numerical values or bounds to be used in the model. In the case of enterprise risk assessment the considered risks are, for instance, strategic, operational, legal and of image, which many times are difficult to be quantified. So in most cases only expert data, gathered by scorecard approaches, are available for risk analysis. The Bayesian Networks (BNs) are a useful tool to integrate different information and in particular to study the risk's joint distribution by using data collected from experts. In this paper we want to show a possible approach for building a BN in the particular case in which only prior probabilities of node states and marginal correlations between nodes are available, and when the variables have only two states.

Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS) Volume III: Part A

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA's Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS) Volume 3A provides policies and guiding principles on the application of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods to human health and ecological risk assessment in the EPA Superfund Program.

Evaluation of a constipation risk assessment scale.

PubMed

Zernike, W; Henderson, A

1999-06-01

This project was undertaken in order to evaluate the utility of a constipation risk assessment scale and the accompanying bowel management protocol. The risk assessment scale was primarily introduced to teach and guide staff in managing constipation when caring for patients. The intention of the project was to reduce the incidence of constipation in patients during their admission to hospital.

Integrating human behaviour dynamics into flood disaster risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Botzen, W. J.; Clarke, K. C.; Cutter, S. L.; Hall, J. W.; Merz, B.; Michel-Kerjan, E.; Mysiak, J.; Surminski, S.; Kunreuther, H.

2018-03-01

The behaviour of individuals, businesses, and government entities before, during, and immediately after a disaster can dramatically affect the impact and recovery time. However, existing risk-assessment methods rarely include this critical factor. In this Perspective, we show why this is a concern, and demonstrate that although initial efforts have inevitably represented human behaviour in limited terms, innovations in flood-risk assessment that integrate societal behaviour and behavioural adaptation dynamics into such quantifications may lead to more accurate characterization of risks and improved assessment of the effectiveness of risk-management strategies and investments. Such multidisciplinary approaches can inform flood-risk management policy development.

Historical relationship between performance assessment for radioactive waste disposal and other types of risk assessment.

PubMed

Rechard, R P

1999-10-01

This article describes the evolution of the process for assessing the hazards of a geologic disposal system for radioactive waste and, similarly, nuclear power reactors, and the relationship of this process with other assessments of risk, particularly assessments of hazards from manufactured carcinogenic chemicals during use and disposal. This perspective reviews the common history of scientific concepts for risk assessment developed until the 1950s. Computational tools and techniques developed in the late 1950s and early 1960s to analyze the reliability of nuclear weapon delivery systems were adopted in the early 1970s for probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power reactors, a technology for which behavior was unknown. In turn, these analyses became an important foundation for performance assessment of nuclear waste disposal in the late 1970s. The evaluation of risk to human health and the environment from chemical hazards is built on methods for assessing the dose response of radionuclides in the 1950s. Despite a shared background, however, societal events, often in the form of legislation, have affected the development path for risk assessment for human health, producing dissimilarities between these risk assessments and those for nuclear facilities. An important difference is the regulator's interest in accounting for uncertainty.

CANCER RISK ASSESSMENTS (RA.D.1D)

EPA Science Inventory

Risk assessments are based on questions that the assessor asks about scientific information that is relevant to human and/or environmental risk. The risk characterization also provides an evaluation of the assumptions, uncertainties, and selection of studies and models used in th...

Proposed Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

The Proposed Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment were published in the Federal Register on April 23, 1996 (Federal Register: 17960-18011) for a 120-day public review and comment period. The Proposed Guidelines are a revision of EPA's 1986 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Ass...

Integrating human health and ecological concerns in risk assessments.

PubMed

Cirone, P A; Bruce Duncan, P

2000-11-03

The interconnections between ecosystems, human health and welfare have been increasingly recognized by the US government, academia, and the public. This paper continues this theme by addressing the use of risk assessment to integrate people into a single assessment. In a broad overview of the risk assessment process we stress the need to build a conceptual model of the whole system including multiple species (humans and other ecological entities), stressors, and cumulative effects. We also propose converging landscape ecology and evaluation of ecosystem services with risk assessment to address these cumulative responses. We first look at how this integration can occur within the problem formulation step in risk assessment where the system is defined, a conceptual model created, a subset of components and functions selected, and the analytical framework decided in a context that includes the management decisions. A variety of examples of problem formulations (salmon, wild insects, hyporheic ecosystems, ultraviolet (UV) radiation, nitrogen fertilization, toxic chemicals, and oil spills) are presented to illustrate how treating humans as components of the landscape can add value to risk assessments. We conclude that the risk assessment process should help address the urgent needs of society in proportion to importance, to provide a format to communicate knowledge and understanding, and to inform policy and management decisions.

INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT - RESULTS FROM AN INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP

EPA Science Inventory

The WHO International Programme on Chemical Safety and international partners have developed a framework for integrated assessment of human health and ecological risks and four case studies. An international workshop was convened to consider how ecological and health risk assess...

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial - Primer

EPA Science Inventory

This document provides a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) primer that organizes QMRA tutorials. The tutorials describe functionality of a QMRA infrastructure, guide the user through software use and assessment options, provide step-by-step instructions for implementi...

Flood resilience and uncertainty in flood risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beven, K.; Leedal, D.; Neal, J.; Bates, P.; Hunter, N.; Lamb, R.; Keef, C.

2012-04-01

Flood risk assessments do not normally take account of the uncertainty in assessing flood risk. There is no requirement in the EU Floods Directive to do so. But given the generally short series (and potential non-stationarity) of flood discharges, the extrapolation to smaller exceedance potentials may be highly uncertain. This means that flood risk mapping may also be highly uncertainty, with additional uncertainties introduced by the representation of flood plain and channel geometry, conveyance and infrastructure. This suggests that decisions about flood plain management should be based on exceedance probability of risk rather than the deterministic hazard maps that are common in most EU countries. Some examples are given from 2 case studies in the UK where a framework for good practice in assessing uncertainty in flood risk mapping has been produced as part of the Flood Risk Management Research Consortium and Catchment Change Network Projects. This framework provides a structure for the communication and audit of assumptions about uncertainties.

The Art of Cardiovascular Risk Assessment.

PubMed

Khambhati, Jay; Allard-Ratick, Marc; Dhindsa, Devinder; Lee, Suegene; Chen, John; Sandesara, Pratik B; Quyyumi, Arshed A; Wong, Nathan D; Blumenthal, Roger S; Sperling, Laurence

2018-06-19

The authors would like to submit two corrections on the recently published manuscript, Art of Cardiovascular Risk Assessment. In section 4, the original sentence states: "However, the SCCT does not recommend use of a CAC score in low-risk patients with an ASCVD risk of < 10%." We would like to correct this to "Furthermore, the SCCT recommends consideration of a CAC score in those with a risk score of 5-20% and selectively in those with lower predicted risk who have a family history of premature ASCVD or other risk conditions." This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.