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Sample records for outbreak early warning

  1. Dynamic linear models using the Kalman filter for early detection and early warning of malaria outbreaks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Merkord, C. L.; Liu, Y.; DeVos, M.; Wimberly, M. C.

    2015-12-01

    Malaria early detection and early warning systems are important tools for public health decision makers in regions where malaria transmission is seasonal and varies from year to year with fluctuations in rainfall and temperature. Here we present a new data-driven dynamic linear model based on the Kalman filter with time-varying coefficients that are used to identify malaria outbreaks as they occur (early detection) and predict the location and timing of future outbreaks (early warning). We fit linear models of malaria incidence with trend and Fourier form seasonal components using three years of weekly malaria case data from 30 districts in the Amhara Region of Ethiopia. We identified past outbreaks by comparing the modeled prediction envelopes with observed case data. Preliminary results demonstrated the potential for improved accuracy and timeliness over commonly-used methods in which thresholds are based on simpler summary statistics of historical data. Other benefits of the dynamic linear modeling approach include robustness to missing data and the ability to fit models with relatively few years of training data. To predict future outbreaks, we started with the early detection model for each district and added a regression component based on satellite-derived environmental predictor variables including precipitation data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and land surface temperature (LST) and spectral indices from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We included lagged environmental predictors in the regression component of the model, with lags chosen based on cross-correlation of the one-step-ahead forecast errors from the first model. Our results suggest that predictions of future malaria outbreaks can be improved by incorporating lagged environmental predictors.

  2. Detection of Pathogenic Viruses in Sewage Provided Early Warnings of Hepatitis A Virus and Norovirus Outbreaks

    PubMed Central

    Hellmér, Maria; Paxéus, Nicklas; Magnius, Lars; Enache, Lucica; Arnholm, Birgitta; Johansson, Annette; Bergström, Tomas

    2014-01-01

    Most persons infected with enterically transmitted viruses shed large amounts of virus in feces for days or weeks, both before and after onset of symptoms. Therefore, viruses causing gastroenteritis may be detected in wastewater, even if only a few persons are infected. In this study, the presence of eight pathogenic viruses (norovirus, astrovirus, rotavirus, adenovirus, Aichi virus, parechovirus, hepatitis A virus [HAV], and hepatitis E virus) was investigated in sewage to explore whether their identification could be used as an early warning of outbreaks. Samples of the untreated sewage were collected in proportion to flow at Ryaverket, Gothenburg, Sweden. Daily samples collected during every second week between January and May 2013 were pooled and analyzed for detection of viruses by concentration through adsorption to milk proteins and PCR. The largest amount of noroviruses was detected in sewage 2 to 3 weeks before most patients were diagnosed with this infection in Gothenburg. The other viruses were detected at lower levels. HAV was detected between weeks 5 and 13, and partial sequencing of the structural VP1protein identified three different strains. Two strains were involved in an ongoing outbreak in Scandinavia and were also identified in samples from patients with acute hepatitis A in Gothenburg during spring of 2013. The third strain was unique and was not detected in any patient sample. The method used may thus be a tool to detect incipient outbreaks of these viruses and provide early warning before the causative pathogens have been recognized in health care. PMID:25172863

  3. Pacific-wide simplified syndromic surveillance for early warning of outbreaks

    PubMed Central

    Kool, Jacob L.; Paterson, Beverley; Pavlin, Boris I.; Durrheim, David; Musto, Jennie; Kolbe, Anthony

    2012-01-01

    The International Health Regulations require timely detection and response to outbreaks. Many attempts to set up an outbreak early warning system in Pacific island countries and territories (PICTs) have failed. Most were modelled on systems from large countries; large amounts of data often overwhelmed small public health teams. Many conditions required overseas laboratory confirmation, further reducing timeliness and completeness. To improve timeliness and reduce the data burden, simplified surveillance was proposed, with case definitions based on clinical signs and symptoms without the need for laboratory confirmation or information on symptoms, location, sex and age. After trials in three PICTs, this system was implemented throughout the Pacific. Enthusiastic adoption by public health staff resulted in 20 of 22 PICTs reporting weekly to the World Health Organization within 12 months of starting to use the system. In the first year, the system has detected many infectious disease outbreaks and facilitated timely implementation of control measures. For several Pacific countries and territories, this is the first functional and timely infectious disease surveillance system. When outbreak detection is the principal objective, simplification of surveillance should be a priority in countries with a limited public health system capacity. PMID:22823595

  4. Early-warning signals for an outbreak of the influenza pandemic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ren, Di; Gao, Jie

    2011-12-01

    Over the course of human history, influenza pandemics have been seen as major disasters, so studies on the influenza virus have become an important issue for many experts and scholars. Comprehensive research has been performed over the years on the biological properties, chemical characteristics, external environmental factors and other aspects of the virus, and some results have been achieved. Based on the chaos game representation walk model, this paper uses the time series analysis method to study the DNA sequences of the influenza virus from 1913 to 2010, and works out the early-warning signals indicator value for the outbreak of an influenza pandemic. The variances in the CGR walk sequences for the pandemic years (or + -1 to 2 years) are significantly higher than those for the adjacent years, while those in the non-pandemic years are usually smaller. In this way we can provide an influenza early-warning mechanism so that people can take precautions and be well prepared prior to a pandemic.

  5. Predictors of local malaria outbreaks: an approach to the development of an early warning system in Colombia

    PubMed Central

    Mateus, Julio César; Carrasquilla, Gabriel

    2016-01-01

    Risk factor surveillance is a complementary tool of morbidity and mortality surveillance that improves the likelihood that public health interventions are implemented in a timely fashion. The aim of this study was to identify population predictors of malaria outbreaks in endemic municipalities of Colombia with the goal of developing an early warning system for malaria outbreaks. We conducted a multiple-group, exploratory, ecological study at the municipal level. Each of the 290 municipalities with endemic malaria that we studied was classified according to the presence or absence of outbreaks. The measurement of variables was based on historic registries and logistic regression was performed to analyse the data. Altitude above sea level [odds ratio (OR) 3.65, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.34–9.98], variability in rainfall (OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.40–2.44) and the proportion of inhabitants over 45 years of age (OR 0.17, 95% CI 0.08–0.38) were factors associated with malaria outbreaks in Colombian municipalities. The results suggest that environmental and demographic factors could have a significant ability to predict malaria outbreaks on the municipal level in Colombia. To advance the development of an early warning system, it will be necessary to adjust and standardise the collection of required data and to evaluate the accuracy of the forecast models. PMID:21881764

  6. Early Warning and Outbreak Detection Using Social Networking Websites: The Potential of Twitter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Quincey, Ed; Kostkova, Patty

    Epidemic Intelligence is being used to gather information about potential diseases outbreaks from both formal and increasingly informal sources. A potential addition to these informal sources are social networking sites such as Facebook and Twitter. In this paper we describe a method for extracting messages, called "tweets" from the Twitter website and the results of a pilot study which collected over 135,000 tweets in a week during the current Swine Flu pandemic.

  7. Three-Month Real-Time Dengue Forecast Models: An Early Warning System for Outbreak Alerts and Policy Decision Support in Singapore

    PubMed Central

    Shi, Yuan; Liu, Xu; Kok, Suet-Yheng; Rajarethinam, Jayanthi; Liang, Shaohong; Yap, Grace; Chong, Chee-Seng; Lee, Kim-Sung; Tan, Sharon S.Y.; Chin, Christopher Kuan Yew; Lo, Andrew; Kong, Waiming; Ng, Lee Ching; Cook, Alex R.

    2015-01-01

    Background: With its tropical rainforest climate, rapid urbanization, and changing demography and ecology, Singapore experiences endemic dengue; the last large outbreak in 2013 culminated in 22,170 cases. In the absence of a vaccine on the market, vector control is the key approach for prevention. Objectives: We sought to forecast the evolution of dengue epidemics in Singapore to provide early warning of outbreaks and to facilitate the public health response to moderate an impending outbreak. Methods: We developed a set of statistical models using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) methods to forecast the weekly incidence of dengue notifications over a 3-month time horizon. This forecasting tool used a variety of data streams and was updated weekly, including recent case data, meteorological data, vector surveillance data, and population-based national statistics. The forecasting methodology was compared with alternative approaches that have been proposed to model dengue case data (seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average and step-down linear regression) by fielding them on the 2013 dengue epidemic, the largest on record in Singapore. Results: Operationally useful forecasts were obtained at a 3-month lag using the LASSO-derived models. Based on the mean average percentage error, the LASSO approach provided more accurate forecasts than the other methods we assessed. We demonstrate its utility in Singapore’s dengue control program by providing a forecast of the 2013 outbreak for advance preparation of outbreak response. Conclusions: Statistical models built using machine learning methods such as LASSO have the potential to markedly improve forecasting techniques for recurrent infectious disease outbreaks such as dengue. Citation: Shi Y, Liu X, Kok SY, Rajarethinam J, Liang S, Yap G, Chong CS, Lee KS, Tan SS, Chin CK, Lo A, Kong W, Ng LC, Cook AR. 2016. Three-month real-time dengue forecast models: an early warning system for outbreak

  8. An Early Warning System for Flounder Disease

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xing, Bin; Li, Daoliang; Wang, Jianqin; Duan, Qingling; Wen, Jiwen

    With the constant expansion of the scale and mismanagement in aquaculture,the diseases of flounder occur more and more frequently than before, which has brought great economic losses to fish farmers. For the sake of the problem described above, based on a great number of surveys, the early warning theory of flounder disease, the analysis of the outbreak and development of diseases and the relationship between disease and factors, the logic process of the early warning for flounder disease was confirmed. It consists of five parts: specifying the target, searching for the source, distinguishing the sign, predicting the degree and eliminating the menace. Using the expert survey method the early warning indexes which affect the normal life of the flounder and calculated the range of the water environment factors were also confirmed. Finally, an early warning system was implemented, which can reduce the damage from the flounder disease.

  9. Crowdsourced earthquake early warning

    PubMed Central

    Minson, Sarah E.; Brooks, Benjamin A.; Glennie, Craig L.; Murray, Jessica R.; Langbein, John O.; Owen, Susan E.; Heaton, Thomas H.; Iannucci, Robert A.; Hauser, Darren L.

    2015-01-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost. Common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW. Although less accurate than scientific-grade instruments, these sensors are globally ubiquitous. Through controlled tests of consumer devices, simulation of an Mw (moment magnitude) 7 earthquake on California’s Hayward fault, and real data from the Mw 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we demonstrate that EEW could be achieved via crowdsourcing. PMID:26601167

  10. Crowdsourced earthquake early warning.

    PubMed

    Minson, Sarah E; Brooks, Benjamin A; Glennie, Craig L; Murray, Jessica R; Langbein, John O; Owen, Susan E; Heaton, Thomas H; Iannucci, Robert A; Hauser, Darren L

    2015-04-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost. Common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW. Although less accurate than scientific-grade instruments, these sensors are globally ubiquitous. Through controlled tests of consumer devices, simulation of an M w (moment magnitude) 7 earthquake on California's Hayward fault, and real data from the M w 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we demonstrate that EEW could be achieved via crowdsourcing. PMID:26601167

  11. Managing Risks? Early Warning Systems for Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sitati, A. M.; Zommers, Z. A.; Habilov, M.

    2014-12-01

    Early warning systems are a tool with which to minimize risks posed by climate related hazards. Although great strides have been made in developing early warning systems most deal with one hazard, only provide short-term warnings and do not reach the most vulnerable. This presentation will review research results of the United Nations Environment Programme's CLIM-WARN project. The project seeks to identify how governments can better communicate risks by designing multi-hazard early warning systems that deliver actionable warnings across timescales. Household surveys and focus group discussions were conducted in 36 communities in Kenya, Ghana and Burkina Faso in order to identify relevant climate related hazards, current response strategies and early warning needs. Preliminary results show significant variability in both risks and needs within and between countries. For instance, floods are more frequent in rural western parts of Kenya. Droughts are frequent in the north while populations in urban areas face a range of hazards - floods, droughts, disease outbreaks - that sometimes occur simultaneously. The majority of the rural population, especially women, the disabled and the elderly, do not have access to modern media such as radio, television, or internet. While 55% of rural populace never watches television, 64% of urban respondents watch television on a daily basis. Communities have different concepts of how to design warning systems. It will be a challenge for national governments to create systems that accommodate such diversity yet provide standard quality of service to all. There is a need for flexible and forward-looking early warning systems that deliver broader information about risks. Information disseminated through the system could not only include details of hazards, but also long-term adaptation options, general education, and health information, thus increasingly both capabilities and response options.

  12. Italian landslide early warning system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rossi, M.

    2009-04-01

    for the early warning system, comparing rain gauge network measurements with existing and new national rainfall thresholds, has been implemented. In this version, information on landslide spatial and temporal probability at the national scale have been made available. Future versions of the system: (i) will use new Italian regional and local rainfall thresholds, (ii) will consider rainfall estimates obtained from ground-based weather radars, meteorological satellites, and numerical weather forecasts, and (iii) will implement new criteria for the issue of warning based on the combination of rainfall thresholds and statistical models of landslide hazard and risk.

  13. Sensors Provide Early Warning of Biological Threats

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2009-01-01

    Early Warning Inc. of Troy, New York, licensed powerful biosensor technology from Ames Research Center. Incorporating carbon nanotubes tipped with single strands of nucleic acid from waterborne pathogens, the sensor can detect even minute amounts of targeted, disease causing bacteria, viruses, and parasites. Early Warning features the NASA biosensor in its water analyzer, which can provide advance alert of potential biological hazards in water used for agriculture, food and beverages, showers, and at beaches and lakes -- within hours instead of the days required by conventional laboratory methods.

  14. A survey of early warning technologies

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, G.D.; Arlowe, H.D.; Williams, J.D.

    1995-07-01

    This paper presents a survey of technologies useful in providing early warning in physical security systems. Early warning is important in virtually all types of security systems whether they are used for temporary (tactical, portable, or semi-permanent) applications, border warning, fixed-site detection, or standoff surveillance detection. With the exception of the standoff surveillance detection systems, all systems discussed in this paper usually involve a moving target. The fact that a person(s) to be detected in a standoff surveillance scenario is not moving presents challenging problems and requires different applications of technology. The technologies commonly used to detect moving targets and some suggestions for detection of stationary targets are addressed in this paper.

  15. Tsunami early warning and decision support

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steinmetz, T.; Raape, U.; Teßmann, S.; Strobl, C.; Friedemann, M.; Kukofka, T.; Riedlinger, T.; Mikusch, E.; Dech, S.

    2010-09-01

    An innovative newly developed modular and standards based Decision Support System (DSS) is presented which forms part of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS). The GITEWS project stems from the effort to implement an effective and efficient Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System for the coast of Indonesia facing the Sunda Arc along the islands of Sumatra, Java and Bali. The geological setting along an active continental margin which is very close to densely populated areas is a particularly difficult one to cope with, because potential tsunamis' travel times are thus inherently short. National policies require an initial warning to be issued within the first five minutes after an earthquake has occurred. There is an urgent requirement for an end-to-end solution where the decision support takes the entire warning chain into account. The system of choice is based on pre-computed scenario simulations and rule-based decision support which is delivered to the decision maker through a sophisticated graphical user interface (GUI) using information fusion and fast information aggregation to create situational awareness in the shortest time possible. The system also contains risk and vulnerability information which was designed with the far end of the warning chain in mind - it enables the decision maker to base his acceptance (or refusal) of the supported decision also on regionally differentiated risk and vulnerability information (see Strunz et al., 2010). While the system strives to provide a warning as quickly as possible, it is not in its proper responsibility to send and disseminate the warning to the recipients. The DSS only broadcasts its messages to a dissemination system (and possibly any other dissemination system) which is operated under the responsibility of BMKG - the meteorological, climatological and geophysical service of Indonesia - which also hosts the tsunami early warning center. The system is to be seen as one step towards

  16. A SDMS Model: Early Warning Coordination Centres

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santos-Reyes, Jaime

    2010-05-01

    Following the tsunami disaster in 2004, the General Secretary of the United Nations (UN) Kofi Annan called for a global early warning system for all hazards and for all communities. He also requested the ISDR (International Strategy fort Disaster Reduction) and its UN partners to conduct a global survey of capacities, gaps and opportunities in relation to early warning systems. The produced report, "Global survey of Early Warning Systems", concluded that there are many gaps and shortcomings and that much progress has been made on early warning systems and great capabilities are available around the world. However, it may be argued that an early warning system (EWS) may not be enough to prevent fatalities due to a natural hazard; i.e., it should be seen as part of a ‘wider' or total system. Furthermore, an EWS may work very well when assessed individually but it is not clear whether it will contribute to accomplish the purpose of the ‘total disaster management system'; i.e., to prevent fatalities. For instance, a regional EWS may only work if it is well co-ordinated with the local warning and emergency response systems that ensure that the warning is received, communicated and acted upon by the potentially affected communities. It may be argued that without these local measures being in place, a regional EWS will have little impact in saving lives. Researchers argued that unless people are warned in remote areas, the technology is useless; for instance McGuire [5] argues that: "I have no doubt that the technical element of the warning system will work very well,"…"But there has to be an effective and efficient communications cascade from the warning centre to the fisherman on the beach and his family and the bar owners." Similarly, McFadden [6] states that: "There's no point in spending all the money on a fancy monitoring and a fancy analysis system unless we can make sure the infrastructure for the broadcast system is there,"… "That's going to require a lot

  17. Modeling warning times for the Israel's earthquake early warning system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pinsky, Vladimir

    2015-01-01

    In June 2012, the Israeli government approved the offer of the creation of an earthquake early warning system (EEWS) that would provide timely alarms for schools and colleges in Israel. A network configuration was chosen, consisting of a staggered line of ˜100 stations along the main regional faults: the Dead Sea fault and the Carmel fault, and an additional ˜40 stations spread more or less evenly over the country. A hybrid approach to the EEWS alarm was suggested, where a P-wave-based system will be combined with the S-threshold method. The former utilizes first arrivals to several stations closest to the event for prompt location and determination of the earthquake's magnitude from the first 3 s of the waveform data. The latter issues alarms, when the acceleration of the surface movement exceeds a threshold for at least two neighboring stations. The threshold will be chosen to be a peak acceleration level corresponding to a magnitude 5 earthquake at a short distance range (5-10 km). The warning times or lead times, i.e., times between the alarm signal arrival and arrival of the damaging S-waves, are considered for the P, S, and hybrid EEWS methods. For each of the approaches, the P- and the S-wave travel times and the alarm times were calculated using a standard 1D velocity model and some assumptions regarding the EEWS data latencies. Then, a definition of alarm effectiveness was introduced as a measure of the trade-off between the warning time and the shaking intensity. A number of strong earthquake scenarios, together with anticipated shaking intensities at important targets, namely cities with high populations, are considered. The scenarios demonstrated in probabilistic terms how the alarm effectiveness varies depending on the target distance from the epicenter and event magnitude.

  18. Modeling warning times for the Israel's earthquake early warning system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pinsky, Vladimir

    2014-09-01

    In June 2012, the Israeli government approved the offer of the creation of an earthquake early warning system (EEWS) that would provide timely alarms for schools and colleges in Israel. A network configuration was chosen, consisting of a staggered line of ˜100 stations along the main regional faults: the Dead Sea fault and the Carmel fault, and an additional ˜40 stations spread more or less evenly over the country. A hybrid approach to the EEWS alarm was suggested, where a P-wave-based system will be combined with the S-threshold method. The former utilizes first arrivals to several stations closest to the event for prompt location and determination of the earthquake's magnitude from the first 3 s of the waveform data. The latter issues alarms, when the acceleration of the surface movement exceeds a threshold for at least two neighboring stations. The threshold will be chosen to be a peak acceleration level corresponding to a magnitude 5 earthquake at a short distance range (5-10 km). The warning times or lead times, i.e., times between the alarm signal arrival and arrival of the damaging S-waves, are considered for the P, S, and hybrid EEWS methods. For each of the approaches, the P- and the S-wave travel times and the alarm times were calculated using a standard 1D velocity model and some assumptions regarding the EEWS data latencies. Then, a definition of alarm effectiveness was introduced as a measure of the trade-off between the warning time and the shaking intensity. A number of strong earthquake scenarios, together with anticipated shaking intensities at important targets, namely cities with high populations, are considered. The scenarios demonstrated in probabilistic terms how the alarm effectiveness varies depending on the target distance from the epicenter and event magnitude.

  19. Early outbreaks of 'epidemic neuromyasthenia'.

    PubMed Central

    Parish, J. G.

    1978-01-01

    The literature of the outbreaks of 'epidemic neuromyasthenia' (ENM) from 1934 to 1955 has been selected to show that the disease affects other people besides young adult females in hospitals and nursing homes. There have been district epidemics, in which the male: female ratio was almost even and several male outbreaks affecting soldiers in barracks. Some outbreaks appear to have been triggered off by an epidemic of poliomyelitis, and the epidemiology of outbreaks in Iceland in 1948 and 1955 suggests that the normal cytopathological effects of poliomyelitis infection have been suppressed by the new disease. In the Durban epidemic (1955) a toxic metabolite was discovered in the urine of many patients and a markedly increased urinary excretion of creatine was noted in two New York State outbreaks. The results of the transmission of an agent from patients with ENM to monkeys suggest that the neurological disorder might be in the form of mild disseminated lesions scattered throughout the nervous system from the brain to peripheral nerves and associated with perivascular round cell infiltration without significant cellular damage. ENM infection was widespread in the North of England in 1955 and associated with lymphocyte abnormalities, which have persisted in some cases for several years. This suggests a continuous organic process. PMID:370810

  20. Rapid telemetry and earthquake early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, R.; Bose, M.; Brown, H.; Cua, G.; Given, D.; Hauksson, E.; Heaton, T.; Hellweg, M.; Jordan, T.; Kireev, A.; Maechling, P.; Neuhauser, D.; Oppenheimer, D.; Solanki, K.; Zeleznik, M.

    2008-05-01

    The California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) is currently testing algorithms for earthquake early warning on the realtime seismic systems in the state. An earthquake warning system rapidly detects the initiation of earthquakes and assesses the associated hazard. The goal is to provide warning of potentially damaging ground motion in a target region prior to the arrival of seismic waves. The network-based approach to early warning requires station data to be gathered at a central site for joint processing. ElarmS, one network-based approach being tested, currently runs 15 sec behind realtime in order to gather ~90% of station data before processing. Even with this delay the recent Mw 5.4 Alum Rock earthquake near San Jose was detected and an accurate hazard assessment was available before ground shaking in San Francisco. The Virtual Seismologist (VS) method, another network-based approach, is a Bayesian method that incorporates information such as network topology, previously observed seismicity, and the Gutenberg-Richter relationship in magnitude and location estimation. The VS method is currently being transitioned from off-line to real-time testing and will soon be running 15 sec behind real-time, as in the case of ElarmS. We are also testing an on-site warning approach, which is based on single-station observations. On-site systems can deliver earthquake information faster than regional systems, and the warning could possibly reach potential users at much closer epicentral distances before the damaging shaking starts. By definition, on-site systems do not require a central processing facility or delivery of data from a distant seismic station, but they are less robust that networked-based systems and need a fast and reliable telemetry to deliver warnings to local users. The range of possible warning times is typically seconds to tens of seconds and every second of data latency translates into an equal reduction in the available warning time. Minimal latency

  1. LIVE DEMONSTRATION OF DISTANT EARLY WARNING SYSTEM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hammitzsch, M.; Lendholt, M.; Wächter, J.

    2009-12-01

    The DEWS (Distant Early Warning System) [1] project, funded under the 6th Framework Programme of the European Union, has the objective to create a new generation of interoperable early warning systems based on an open sensor platform. This platform integrates OGC [2] SWE [3] compliant sensor systems for the rapid detection of earthquakes, for the monitoring of sea level, ocean floor events, and ground displacements. Based on the upstream information flow DEWS focuses on the improvement of downstream capacities of warning centres especially by improving information logistics for effective and targeted warning message aggregation for a multilingual environment. Multiple telecommunication channels will be used for the dissemination of warning messages. Wherever possible, existing standards have been integrated. The Command and Control User Interface (CCUI), a rich client application based on Eclipse RCP (Rich Client Platform) [4] and the open source GIS uDig [5], integrates various OGC services. Using WMS (Web Map Service) [6] and WFS (Web Feature Service) [7] spatial data are utilized to depict the situation picture and to integrate a simulation system via WPS (Web Processing Service) [8] to identify affected areas. Warning messages are compiled and transmitted in the OASIS [9] CAP (Common Alerting Protocol) [10] standard together with addressing information defined via EDXL-DE (Emergency Data Exchange Language - Distribution Element) [11]. Internal interfaces are realized with SOAP [12] web services. Based on results of GITEWS [13] - in particular the GITEWS Tsunami Service Bus [14] - the DEWS approach provides an implementation for tsunami early warning systems. The introductory part of the demonstration briefly explains the DEWS project, the CCUI in conjunction with operators’ workflow, the system architecture, details of information logistics and the virtual scenario of live demonstration. The live demonstration exhibits the CCUI on screen and the service

  2. Home seismometer for earthquake early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horiuchi, Shigeki; Horiuchi, Yuko; Yamamoto, Shunroku; Nakamura, Hiromitsu; Wu, Changjiang; Rydelek, Paul A.; Kachi, Masaaki

    2009-02-01

    The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has started the practical service of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) and a very dense deployment of receiving units is expected in the near future. The receiving/alarm unit of an EEW system is equipped with a CPU and memory and is on-line via the internet. By adding an inexpensive seismometer and A/D converter, this unit is transformed into a real-time seismic observatory, which we are calling a home seismometer. If the home seismometer is incorporated in the standard receiving unit of EEW, then the number of seismic observatories will be drastically increased. Since the background noise inside a house caused by human activity may be very large, we have developed specialized software for on-site warning using the home seismometer. We tested our software and found that our algorithm can correctly distinguish between noise and earthquakes for nearly all the events.

  3. Establishing an early warning alert and response network following the Solomon Islands tsunami in 2013

    PubMed Central

    Bilve, Augustine; Nogareda, Francisco; Joshua, Cynthia; Ross, Lester; Betcha, Christopher; Durski, Kara; Fleischl, Juliet

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Problem On 6 February 2013, an 8.0 magnitude earthquake generated a tsunami that struck the Santa Cruz Islands, Solomon Islands, killing 10 people and displacing over 4700. Approach A post-disaster assessment of the risk of epidemic disease transmission recommended the implementation of an early warning alert and response network (EWARN) to rapidly detect, assess and respond to potential outbreaks in the aftermath of the tsunami. Local setting Almost 40% of the Santa Cruz Islands’ population were displaced by the disaster, and living in cramped temporary camps with poor or absent sanitation facilities and insufficient access to clean water. There was no early warning disease surveillance system. Relevant changes By 25 February, an EWARN was operational in five health facilities that served 90% of the displaced population. Eight priority diseases or syndromes were reported weekly; unexpected health events were reported immediately. Between 25 February and 19 May, 1177 target diseases or syndrome cases were reported. Seven alerts were investigated. No sustained transmission or epidemics were identified. Reporting compliance was 85%. The EWARN was then transitioned to the routine four-syndrome early warning disease surveillance system. Lesson learnt It was necessary to conduct a detailed assessment to evaluate the risk and potential impact of serious infectious disease outbreaks, to assess whether and how enhanced early warning disease surveillance should be implemented. Local capacities and available resources should be considered in planning EWARN implementation. An EWARN can be an opportunity to establish or strengthen early warning disease surveillance capabilities. PMID:25378746

  4. Crowd-Sourced Global Earthquake Early Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Minson, S. E.; Brooks, B. A.; Glennie, C. L.; Murray, J. R.; Langbein, J. O.; Owen, S. E.; Iannucci, B. A.; Hauser, D. L.

    2014-12-01

    Although earthquake early warning (EEW) has shown great promise for reducing loss of life and property, it has only been implemented in a few regions due, in part, to the prohibitive cost of building the required dense seismic and geodetic networks. However, many cars and consumer smartphones, tablets, laptops, and similar devices contain low-cost versions of the same sensors used for earthquake monitoring. If a workable EEW system could be implemented based on either crowd-sourced observations from consumer devices or very inexpensive networks of instruments built from consumer-quality sensors, EEW coverage could potentially be expanded worldwide. Controlled tests of several accelerometers and global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers typically found in consumer devices show that, while they are significantly noisier than scientific-grade instruments, they are still accurate enough to capture displacements from moderate and large magnitude earthquakes. The accuracy of these sensors varies greatly depending on the type of data collected. Raw coarse acquisition (C/A) code GPS data are relatively noisy. These observations have a surface displacement detection threshold approaching ~1 m and would thus only be useful in large Mw 8+ earthquakes. However, incorporating either satellite-based differential corrections or using a Kalman filter to combine the raw GNSS data with low-cost acceleration data (such as from a smartphone) decreases the noise dramatically. These approaches allow detection thresholds as low as 5 cm, potentially enabling accurate warnings for earthquakes as small as Mw 6.5. Simulated performance tests show that, with data contributed from only a very small fraction of the population, a crowd-sourced EEW system would be capable of warning San Francisco and San Jose of a Mw 7 rupture on California's Hayward fault and could have accurately issued both earthquake and tsunami warnings for the 2011 Mw 9 Tohoku-oki, Japan earthquake.

  5. The impact of paediatric early warning systems.

    PubMed

    Naddy, Catherine

    2012-10-01

    The child who is ill enough to be admitted to a children's ward has the potential to deteriorate rapidly. If this deterioration is not recognised and acted on in a timely manner, such children may require cardiopulmonary resuscitation, high dependency or intensive care. A paediatric early warning tool used with routine nursing observations will alert staff to the need for increased monitoring, the support of an associated outreach team or emergency medical attention. If the tool is used, a nurse can provide objective, transparent evidence of the child's condition to experienced clinicians. Appropriate education and supervision of staff should be ensured through the use of an outreach team. PMID:23167014

  6. Tsunami Early Warning: Introducing single frequency GPS receiver into the Tsunami Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramatschi, M.; Falck, C.

    2009-12-01

    M. Ramatschi (1), C. Falck (1), M. Bartsch (1), A. Merx (1), J. Hoeberechts (1), G. Schmidt (1) Abstract After the disastrous tsunami event in Sumatra in 2004 the German government initiated the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) which was inaugurated in 2008 and is now known as the Tsunami Early Warning System in Indonesia (INA-TEWS). Within GITEWS, some new technologies were introduced into the Tsunami early warning, such as geodetic dual frequency GNSS receiver, which are installed on open sea buoys, coastal tide gauges and inland reference stations. This technology is able to support tsunami early warning systems, e.g., by detection of ground motions due to earthquakes. The major drawback of this sensor type is its high expense. Under certain circumstances cost effective single frequency receiver could achieve the same quality, as long as the network topology allows a precise data processing. In our presentation we will review the GNSS part of GITEWS to demonstrate the integration of the newly designed, low power single frequency GPS sensor station with respect to the real-time data flow and the precise near real-time data processing. Technical aspects of data transmission will be addressed as well. Benefits of a small GPS sensor array located next to the Sumatra trench will be discussed in detail. (1) GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam, Telegrafenberg A 17, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany

  7. Creating Responsive Schools: Contextualizing Early Warning, Timely Response.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dwyer, Kevin P.; Osher, David; Hoffman, Catherine C.

    2000-01-01

    Discussion of the Department of Education's 1998 publication, "Early Warning, Timely Response: A Guide to Safe Schools," stresses the importance of violence prevention by providing a supportive schoolwide climate and responding early to at-risk students' academic and behavioral problems. Early imminent warning signs are highlighted, as are…

  8. Earthquake Early Warning and Public Policy: Opportunities and Challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goltz, J. D.; Bourque, L.; Tierney, K.; Riopelle, D.; Shoaf, K.; Seligson, H.; Flores, P.

    2003-12-01

    Development of an earthquake early warning capability and pilot project were objectives of TriNet, a 5-year (1997-2001) FEMA-funded project to develop a state-of-the-art digital seismic network in southern California. In parallel with research to assemble a protocol for rapid analysis of earthquake data and transmission of a signal by TriNet scientists and engineers, the public policy, communication and educational issues inherent in implementation of an earthquake early warning system were addressed by TriNet's outreach component. These studies included: 1) a survey that identified potential users of an earthquake early warning system and how an earthquake early warning might be used in responding to an event, 2) a review of warning systems and communication issues associated with other natural hazards and how lessons learned might be applied to an alerting system for earthquakes, 3) an analysis of organization, management and public policy issues that must be addressed if a broad-based warning system is to be developed and 4) a plan to provide earthquake early warnings to a small number of organizations in southern California as an experimental prototype. These studies provided needed insights into the social and cultural environment in which this new technology will be introduced, an environment with opportunities to enhance our response capabilities but also an environment with significant barriers to overcome to achieve a system that can be sustained and supported. In this presentation we will address the main public policy issues that were subjects of analysis in these studies. They include a discussion of the possible division of functions among organizations likely to be the principle partners in the management of an earthquake early warning system. Drawing on lessons learned from warning systems for other hazards, we will review the potential impacts of false alarms and missed events on warning system credibility, the acceptability of fully automated

  9. Tipping Points: Early warning and wishful thinking

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ditlevsen, Peter

    2010-05-01

    Climate changes and especially the risk of rapid and irreversible changes is of great socioeconomic concern. Abrupt transitions from one statistically steady state to another occur in many complex dynamical systems. Common for these are that crossing a critical threshold can lead to a structural change of the system. This is mathematically described as a bifurcation, which gives the hope that the generic dynamical behavior at bifurcation- or tipping points may be observed even with only imperfect knowledge of the dynamics of the system. It would be especially useful if early warning signals prior to a climate transition could be identified, and perhaps even prevented. The two generic characteristics of the approach to a bifurcation point is increased variance of the observed signal, following from the fluctuation-dissipation theorem and the corresponding increased autocorrelation, related to critical slow down. These two signals are connected, and the detection of only one and not the other, cannot be taken as a sign of an approaching tipping point. This is contrary to what was recently claimed (Dakos et al., PNAS, 105, 14308-14312, 2008; Scheffer et al.,Nature, 461, 53-59, 2009). We shall in the following show this, assess the statistical significance and examine these two signals for the most pronounced observed climate jumps, the Dansgaard-Oeschger events and the termination of the last glacial period. The conclusions drawn is that these most probably are not generated by bifurcations: They are noise induced transitions without early warning signals. This means that it is necessary to understand the full non-linear structure of the climate system, including assessing the influence by an external perturbation (such as increased greenhouse gas concentrations) on the short time scale fluctuations (noise), which might push the system into a different (quasi-)stationary state.

  10. Tsunami Generation Modelling for Early Warning Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Annunziato, A.; Matias, L.; Ulutas, E.; Baptista, M. A.; Carrilho, F.

    2009-04-01

    In the frame of a collaboration between the European Commission Joint Research Centre and the Institute of Meteorology in Portugal, a complete analytical tool to support Early Warning Systems is being developed. The tool will be part of the Portuguese National Early Warning System and will be used also in the frame of the UNESCO North Atlantic Section of the Tsunami Early Warning System. The system called Tsunami Analysis Tool (TAT) includes a worldwide scenario database that has been pre-calculated using the SWAN-JRC code (Annunziato, 2007). This code uses a simplified fault generation mechanism and the hydraulic model is based on the SWAN code (Mader, 1988). In addition to the pre-defined scenario, a system of computers is always ready to start a new calculation whenever a new earthquake is detected by the seismic networks (such as USGS or EMSC) and is judged capable to generate a Tsunami. The calculation is performed using minimal parameters (epicentre and the magnitude of the earthquake): the programme calculates the rupture length and rupture width by using empirical relationship proposed by Ward (2002). The database calculations, as well the newly generated calculations with the current conditions are therefore available to TAT where the real online analysis is performed. The system allows to analyze also sea level measurements available worldwide in order to compare them and decide if a tsunami is really occurring or not. Although TAT, connected with the scenario database and the online calculation system, is at the moment the only software that can support the tsunami analysis on a global scale, we are convinced that the fault generation mechanism is too simplified to give a correct tsunami prediction. Furthermore short tsunami arrival times especially require a possible earthquake source parameters data on tectonic features of the faults like strike, dip, rake and slip in order to minimize real time uncertainty of rupture parameters. Indeed the earthquake

  11. Early Warning at the Gradenbach Mass Movement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lienhart, Werner; Lang, Erich; Mertl, Stefan; Stary, Ulrike; Brückl, Ewald

    2013-04-01

    The Gradenbach mass movement (GMM) is an example of a deep seated gravitational slope deformation in the crystalline rocks of the Eastern Alps (12.85° E, 47.00° N). The main body of the GMM covers an area of 1.7km2 and comprises a volume of 0.12km3. The main scarp is located below the mountain crest at an elevation of 2235m. The toe is at 1200m elevation in the Gradenbach valley. The GMM became active during the second half of the 19th century according to historic documents. Quantitative data about the movement are available since 1962. Quasi-stationary phases of creep or slow sliding were interrupted by accelerations in 1965-1966, 1975, 2001, and 2009 yielding a total displacement of about 20m. The cumulative displacement during the high velocity phases was about 8m in 1965/66 and about 1m in 2001 and 2009. A transition to rapid and catastrophic sliding cannot be excluded during the acceleration phases in the future. The early warning system of the Gradenbach Observatory at the GMM consists of a geodetic, a hydro-meteorological, and a seismological component. The geodetic component comprises a GPS network with stations distributed over the whole GMM and two wire-extensometers recording the displacement at the toe of the landslide relative to the opposite slope. The GPS data are available in real time. The extensometer data are currently transmitted in weekly intervals. The hydro-meteorological component comprises the real time registration and data transmission of precipitation and temperature at one station on the GMM. The water equivalent of the snow cover is weekly determined at 15 profiles. Snow melt and infiltration into the GMM are estimated from this data. The hydrostatic water level is measured at two borehole gauges. A proxy of the hydrostatic water level at the surface of rupture is derived from the hydro-meteorological data and related to the velocity of the GMM by a power law. Investigations show that a variation of the hydrostatic water level at

  12. Smartphone MEMS accelerometers and earthquake early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kong, Q.; Allen, R. M.; Schreier, L.; Kwon, Y. W.

    2015-12-01

    The low cost MEMS accelerometers in the smartphones are attracting more and more attentions from the science community due to the vast number and potential applications in various areas. We are using the accelerometers inside the smartphones to detect the earthquakes. We did shake table tests to show these accelerometers are also suitable to record large shakings caused by earthquakes. We developed an android app - MyShake, which can even distinguish earthquake movements from daily human activities from the recordings recorded by the accelerometers in personal smartphones and upload trigger information/waveform to our server for further analysis. The data from these smartphones forms a unique datasets for seismological applications, such as earthquake early warning. In this talk I will layout the method we used to recognize earthquake-like movement from single smartphone, and the overview of the whole system that harness the information from a network of smartphones for rapid earthquake detection. This type of system can be easily deployed and scaled up around the global and provides additional insights of the earthquake hazards.

  13. UncertiantyQuantificationinTsunamiEarlyWarningCalculations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anunziato, Alessandro

    2016-04-01

    The objective of the Tsunami calculations is the estimation of the impact of waves caused by large seismic events on the coasts and the determination of potential inundation areas. In the case of Early Warning Systems, i.e. systems that should allow to anticipate the possible effects and give the possibility to react consequently (i.e. issue evacuation of areas at risk), this must be done in very short time (minutes) to be effective. In reality, the above estimation includes several uncertainty factors which make the prediction extremely difficult. The quality of the very first estimations of the seismic parameters is not very precise: the uncertainty in the determination of the seismic components (location, magnitude and depth) decreases with time because as time passes it is possible to use more and more seismic signals and the event characterization becomes more precise. On the other hand other parameters that are necessary to establish for the performance of a calculation (i.e. fault mechanism) are difficult to estimate accurately also after hours (and in some cases remain unknown) and therefore this uncertainty remains in the estimated impact evaluations; when a quick tsunami calculation is necessary (early warning systems) the possibility to include any possible future variation of the conditions to establish the "worst case scenario" is particularly important. The consequence is that the number of uncertain parameters is so large that it is not easy to assess the relative importance of each of them and their effect on the predicted results. In general the complexity of system computer codes is generated by the multitude of different models which are assembled into a single program to give the global response for a particular phenomenon. Each of these model has associated a determined uncertainty coming from the application of that model to single cases and/or separated effect test cases. The difficulty in the prediction of a Tsunami calculation response is

  14. Early Warning Signals - conceptual limitations and opportunities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bathiany, Sebastian; Claussen, Martin; Fraedrich, Klaus

    2014-05-01

    Due to potentially large positive feedbacks in the climate system, the existence of tipping points is under debate. At these points, small changes in forcing can lead to abrupt climate change due to the destabilising feedbacks. In order to predict such abrupt changes or to distinguish changes in stability from random state transitions, it has been proposed to exploit statistical precursors of instabilities, also called early warning signals (EWS). However, we argue that the limitations of the underlying concept generally do not allow conclusions on the mechanism of abrupt changes without substantial physical knowledge - the burden of proof lies with the applier of EWS. We demonstrate these limitations with examples from vegetation dynamics and sea ice cover change in models of very different complexity. Apart from the practical problem of short and non-stationary time-series, statistical properties such as variance and autocorrelation usually change for reasons unrelated to the system's stability. In particular, it has to be known, how the natural variability (noise) in a system is caused and how it propagates through the system. A further fundamental limitation is imposed by the large number of spatial degrees of freedom. The benefit of EWS has only been shown in idealised systems of predefined spatial extent. In a more general context like a complex climate system model, the critical subsystem that exhibits a loss in stability (hotspot) and the critical mode of the transition may be unknown. An abrupt change can therefore come as a surprise. However, we suggest that EWS can be applied as a diagnostic tool to find the hotspot of a sudden transition and to distinguish this hotspot from regions experiencing an induced tipping. For this purpose we present a scheme which identifies a hotspot as a certain combination of grid cells which maximise an EWS. The method can provide information on the causality of sudden transitions and may help to improve the knowledge on

  15. Development of tsunami early warning systems and future challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wächter, J.; Babeyko, A.; Fleischer, J.; Häner, R.; Hammitzsch, M.; Kloth, A.; Lendholt, M.

    2012-06-01

    Fostered by and embedded in the general development of information and communications technology (ICT), the evolution of tsunami warning systems (TWS) shows a significant development from seismic-centred to multi-sensor system architectures using additional sensors (e.g. tide gauges and buoys) for the detection of tsunami waves in the ocean. Currently, the beginning implementation of regional tsunami warning infrastructures indicates a new phase in the development of TWS. A new generation of TWS should not only be able to realise multi-sensor monitoring for tsunami detection. Moreover, these systems have to be capable to form a collaborative communication infrastructure of distributed tsunami warning systems in order to implement regional, ocean-wide monitoring and warning strategies. In the context of the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and in the EU-funded FP6 project Distant Early Warning System (DEWS), a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination has been newly developed and demonstrated. In particular, standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS) have been successfully incorporated. In the FP7 project Collaborative, Complex and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC), new developments in ICT (e.g. complex event processing (CEP) and event-driven architecture (EDA)) are used to extend the existing platform to realise a component-based technology framework for building distributed tsunami warning systems.

  16. Early Warning Signals for Critical Transitions: A Generalized Modeling Approach

    PubMed Central

    Lade, Steven J.; Gross, Thilo

    2012-01-01

    Critical transitions are sudden, often irreversible, changes that can occur in a large variety of complex systems; signals that warn of critical transitions are therefore highly desirable. We propose a new method for early warning signals that integrates multiple sources of information and data about the system through the framework of a generalized model. We demonstrate our proposed approach through several examples, including a previously published fisheries model. We regard our method as complementary to existing early warning signals, taking an approach of intermediate complexity between model-free approaches and fully parameterized simulations. One potential advantage of our approach is that, under appropriate conditions, it may reduce the amount of time series data required for a robust early warning signal. PMID:22319432

  17. Early Warning System Ghana: how to successfully implement a disaster early warning system in a data scarce region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Udo, Job; Jungermann, Nicole

    2016-04-01

    Ghana is a country frequently struck by natural disasters like floods and droughts. Timely warning or detection of such disasters will mitigate the negative impact on lives and property. However, local data and monitoring systems necessary to provide such a warning are hardly available. The availability and improvement of internet, mobile phones and satellites has provided new possibilities for disaster warning systems in data scarce regions such as Ghana. Our presentation describes the development of an early warning system (EWS) in Ghana completely based on satellite based open data. The EWS provides a flood or drought hazard warning on sub-catchment level and links the warning to a more detailed flood or drought risk map, to enable the disaster coordinator to send warnings or relieve more efficiently to areas that have the highest risk. This is especially relevant because some areas for which the system is implemented are very remote. The system is developed and tested to be robust and operational especially in remote areas. This means that the necessary information is also available under limited internet conditions and not dependent on local computer facilities. In many rural areas in Ghana communities rely on indigenous knowledge when it comes to flood or drought disaster forecasting. The EWS has a feature that allows indigenous knowledge indicators to be taken into account in the warning and makes easy comparison possible with the satellite based warnings.

  18. GPS Earthquake Early Warning in Cascadia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melbourne, T. I.; Scrivner, C. W.; Santillan, V. M.; Webb, F.

    2011-12-01

    Over 400 GPS receivers of the combined PANGA and PBO networks currently operate along the Cascadia subduction zone, all of which are high-rate and telemetered in real-time. These receivers span the M9 megathrust, M7 crustal faults beneath population centers, several active Cascades volcanoes, and a host of other hazard sources, and together enable a host of new approaches towards hazards mitigation. Data from the majority of the stations is received in real time at CWU and processed into one-second position estimates using 1) relative positioning within several reference frames constrained by 2) absolute point positioning using streamed satellite orbit and clock corrections. While the former produces lower-noise time series, for earthquakes greater than ~M7 and ground displacements exceeding ~20 cm, point positioning alone is shown to provide very rapid and robust estimates of the location and amplitude of both dynamic strong ground motion and permanent deformation. The advantage of point-positioning over relative positioning for earthquake applications lies primarily in the fact that each station's position is estimated independently, without double-differencing, within a reference frame defined by earth's center of mass and the satellite orbits. Point positioning does not require a nearby stable reference station or network whose motion (such as during a seismic event) aliases directly into fictitious displacement of any station in question. Thus, for real-time GPS earthquake characterization, this is of great importance in ensuring a robust measurement. We are now producing real-time point-positions using GIPSY5 and corrections to broadcast satellite clocks and orbits streamed live from the DLR in Germany. We have also developed a stream-editor to flag and fix cycle-slips and other data problems on the fly prior to positioning. We are achieving < 3s latency and RMS scatter of under 4 cm. For use in earthquake early warning, we have developed estimation routines

  19. Prototype early warning systems for vector-borne diseases in Europe.

    PubMed

    Semenza, Jan C

    2015-06-01

    Globalization and environmental change, social and demographic determinants and health system capacity are significant drivers of infectious diseases which can also act as epidemic precursors. Thus, monitoring changes in these drivers can help anticipate, or even forecast, an upsurge of infectious diseases. The European Environment and Epidemiology (E3) Network has been built for this purpose and applied to three early warning case studies: (1) The environmental suitability of malaria transmission in Greece was mapped in order to target epidemiological and entomological surveillance and vector control activities. Malaria transmission in these areas was interrupted in 2013 through such integrated preparedness and response activities. (2) Since 2010, recurrent West Nile fever outbreaks have ensued in South/eastern Europe. Temperature deviations from a thirty year average proved to be associated with the 2010 outbreak. Drivers of subsequent outbreaks were computed through multivariate logistic regression models and included monthly temperature anomalies for July and a normalized water index. (3) Dengue is a tropical disease but sustained transmission has recently emerged in Madeira. Autochthonous transmission has also occurred repeatedly in France and in Croatia mainly due to travel importation. The risk of dengue importation into Europe in 2010 was computed with the volume of international travelers from dengue affected areas worldwide.These prototype early warning systems indicate that monitoring drivers of infectious diseases can help predict vector-borne disease threats. PMID:26042370

  20. Prototype Early Warning Systems for Vector-Borne Diseases in Europe

    PubMed Central

    Semenza, Jan C.

    2015-01-01

    Globalization and environmental change, social and demographic determinants and health system capacity are significant drivers of infectious diseases which can also act as epidemic precursors. Thus, monitoring changes in these drivers can help anticipate, or even forecast, an upsurge of infectious diseases. The European Environment and Epidemiology (E3) Network has been built for this purpose and applied to three early warning case studies: (1) The environmental suitability of malaria transmission in Greece was mapped in order to target epidemiological and entomological surveillance and vector control activities. Malaria transmission in these areas was interrupted in 2013 through such integrated preparedness and response activities. (2) Since 2010, recurrent West Nile fever outbreaks have ensued in South/eastern Europe. Temperature deviations from a thirty year average proved to be associated with the 2010 outbreak. Drivers of subsequent outbreaks were computed through multivariate logistic regression models and included monthly temperature anomalies for July and a normalized water index. (3) Dengue is a tropical disease but sustained transmission has recently emerged in Madeira. Autochthonous transmission has also occurred repeatedly in France and in Croatia mainly due to travel importation. The risk of dengue importation into Europe in 2010 was computed with the volume of international travelers from dengue affected areas worldwide.These prototype early warning systems indicate that monitoring drivers of infectious diseases can help predict vector-borne disease threats. PMID:26042370

  1. Preparing for floods: flood forecasting and early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cloke, Hannah

    2016-04-01

    Flood forecasting and early warning has continued to stride ahead in strengthening the preparedness phases of disaster risk management, saving lives and property and reducing the overall impact of severe flood events. For example, continental and global scale flood forecasting systems such as the European Flood Awareness System and the Global Flood Awareness System provide early information about upcoming floods in real time to various decisionmakers. Studies have found that there are monetary benefits to implementing these early flood warning systems, and with the science also in place to provide evidence of benefit and hydrometeorological institutional outlooks warming to the use of probabilistic forecasts, the uptake over the last decade has been rapid and sustained. However, there are many further challenges that lie ahead to improve the science supporting flood early warning and to ensure that appropriate decisions are made to maximise flood preparedness.

  2. Early warning indicators for monitoring nuclear plant performance

    SciTech Connect

    Acosta, R.J.

    1997-12-01

    Florida Power & Light Company`s (FP&L`s) Nuclear Division has developed a set of early warning indicators that are used to provide precursor indications of future plant performance. These indicators are monitored by management and safety committees to enable early detection of negative performance so that corrective actions may be taken prior to experiencing a significant decline in plant performance.

  3. The Predictive Validity of the Early Warning System Tool

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Evelyn; Semmelroth, Carrie

    2010-01-01

    The Early Warning System is a tool developed by the National High School Center to collect data on indicators including attendance, grade point average, course failures, and credits earned. These indicators have been found to be highly predictive of a student's likelihood of dropping out of high school in large, urban areas. The Early Warning…

  4. Early Warning Systems: Re-Engaging Chronic Truants

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chorneau, Tom

    2012-01-01

    School attendance can be an early indicator that something is going wrong with a student. Gathering, analyzing, and acting on attendance information is a first step toward school improvement. Meanwhile, the majority of the states are moving to build and enhance what are called "early warning systems," intended to flag at-risk students during their…

  5. Towards a nationwide Early Warning System in Romania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marmureanu, A.; Ionescu, C.; Manea, L.

    2012-04-01

    The need to use early warning methods to reduce natural risks in modern societies is related to their unprecedented dependence upon technology. The strong deep events originating from Vrancea-Romania (Mw =7.5) area and shallow events originating from Banat-Romania or Shabla-Bulgaria areas can generate destructive effects in Romania and neighbor countries, and may seriously affect high risk manmade structures. EWS for deep Vrancea earthquakes uses the time interval (28-32 sec.) between the moment when the earthquake is detected by the local seismic network installed in the epicenter area (Vrancea) and the arrival time of the seismic waves in the protected area (Bucharest) to send earthquake warning to users. For the shallow events several methodologies to rapidly estimate earthquake magnitude are under testing. NIEP developed an early warning system that is able to evaluate rapidly earthquake magnitude after detection in the epicenter. In the last years, NIEP upgraded its seismic network in order to cover better the seismic zones of Romania. The early warning system consists of seismic stations that allow rapid communication of data, several software modules developed at NIEP and a communication network. The system allows estimation of earthquake magnitude and permits to send earthquake alarm very fast to users. The early warning software modules minimize communication latencies present in other communication protocols in order to have a rapid magnitude determination. This software was developed by NIEP and is running in present at our institute in real time.

  6. The Financial Benefit of Early Flood Warnings in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pappenberger, Florian; Cloke, Hannah L.; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Parker, Dennis J.; Richardson, David; Thielen, Jutta

    2015-04-01

    Effective disaster risk management relies on science based solutions to close the gap between prevention and preparedness measures. The outcome of consultations on the UNIDSR post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction highlight the need for cross-border early warning systems to strengthen the preparedness phases of disaster risk management in order to save people's lives and property and reduce the overall impact of severe events. In particular, continental and global scale flood forecasting systems provide vital information to various decision makers with which early warnings of floods can be made. Here the potential monetary benefits of early flood warnings using the example of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) are calculated based on pan-European Flood damage data and calculations of potential flood damage reductions. The benefits are of the order of 400 Euro for every 1 Euro invested. Because of the uncertainties which accompany the calculation, a large sensitivity analysis is performed in order to develop an envelope of possible financial benefits. Current EFAS system skill is compared against perfect forecasts to demonstrate the importance of further improving the skill of the forecasts. Improving the response to warnings is also essential in reaping the benefits of flood early warnings.

  7. Towards a certification process for tsunami early warning systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Löwe, Peter; Wächter, Jochen; Hammitzsch, Martin

    2013-04-01

    The natural disaster of the Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 was followed by an information catastrophe. Crucial early warning information could not be delivered to the communities under imminent threat, resulting in over 240,000 casualties in 14 countries. This tragedy sparked the development of a new generation of integrated modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). While significant advances were accomplished in the past years, recent events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key technical challenge for Tsunami Early Warning research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of status information and reliable early warning messages in a proven workflow. A second challenge stems from the main objective of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO (IOC) Tsunami Programme, the integration of national TEWS towards ocean-wide networks: Each of the increasing number of integrated Tsunami Early Warning Centres has to cope with the continuing evolution of sensors, hardware and software while having to maintain reliable inter-center information exchange services. To avoid future information catastrophes, the performance of all components, ranging from individual sensors, to Warning Centers within their particular end-to-end Warning System Environments, and up to federated Systems of Tsunami Warning Systems has to be regularly validated against defined criteria. Since 2004, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CeGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already, being the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS). This activity is continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises) funded under the European Union's seventh Framework Programme (FP7

  8. Earthquake Early Warning: User Education and Designing Effective Messages

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burkett, E. R.; Sellnow, D. D.; Jones, L.; Sellnow, T. L.

    2014-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and partners are transitioning from test-user trials of a demonstration earthquake early warning system (ShakeAlert) to deciding and preparing how to implement the release of earthquake early warning information, alert messages, and products to the public and other stakeholders. An earthquake early warning system uses seismic station networks to rapidly gather information about an occurring earthquake and send notifications to user devices ahead of the arrival of potentially damaging ground shaking at their locations. Earthquake early warning alerts can thereby allow time for actions to protect lives and property before arrival of damaging shaking, if users are properly educated on how to use and react to such notifications. A collaboration team of risk communications researchers and earth scientists is researching the effectiveness of a chosen subset of potential earthquake early warning interface designs and messages, which could be displayed on a device such as a smartphone. Preliminary results indicate, for instance, that users prefer alerts that include 1) a map to relate their location to the earthquake and 2) instructions for what to do in response to the expected level of shaking. A number of important factors must be considered to design a message that will promote appropriate self-protective behavior. While users prefer to see a map, how much information can be processed in limited time? Are graphical representations of wavefronts helpful or confusing? The most important factor to promote a helpful response is the predicted earthquake intensity, or how strong the expected shaking will be at the user's location. Unlike Japanese users of early warning, few Californians are familiar with the earthquake intensity scale, so we are exploring how differentiating instructions between intensity levels (e.g., "Be aware" for lower shaking levels and "Drop, cover, hold on" at high levels) can be paired with self-directed supplemental

  9. A case study on the early warning of agricultural drought

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Xiaoyu; Fan, Jinlong; Yang, Xiaoguang; Han, Yinjuan; Wei, Jianguo

    2010-10-01

    In general, agricultural drought always occurs under the circumstance of the comprehensive interactions among the factors of nature, economy and society. The loss due to agricultural drought in China is huge every year. Therefore the timely monitoring of agricultural drought is critical to help reduce the loss. The information of agricultural drought early warning is helpful for local governmental officials and farmers in preparation for coping with the likely happening drought. The paper presents an approach and findings of an early warning of agricultural drought which has been successfully conducted in the semiarid and rainfed farming area in Ningxia autonomous region in the northwest of China.

  10. Landslide early warning models - five applications within the ILEWS project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thiebes, Benni; Bell, Rainer; Glade, Thomas; Aslan, Murat; Jäger, Stefan; Anderson, Malcolm; Holcombe, Liz

    2010-05-01

    Landslide early warning systems are a good choice if hazards cannot be avoided or if remedial actions are too costly or impossible. Landslide early warning systems are often site-specific and cannot easily be transferred to other regions or even to other landslide processes. One of the main goals of the ILEWS project is the development of transferable early warning concepts starting by the sensor in field and modelling early warning, and ending with user-optimized action advises embedded in a holistic risk management strategy. In our presentation we discuss five landslide early warning models applied in the ILEWS project of which four are aiming at the local scale and single slopes and one at the regional scale. The local study area is located on an extremely slow moving complex rotational landslide in the Swabian Alb, southwest Germany. A slow moving landslide was chosen to ensure that monitoring equipment does not get destroyed before the developed models can be tested extensively. A monitoring system with inclinometers, geoelectric profiles, TDR sensors and tensiometers, a geodetic network and a weather station was installed on the slope and data is utilized in the consequent early warning modelling. The regional model was applied to the Swabian Alb and to the region of South Tyrol, Northern Italy. The first local model is based the physically-based slope stability program CHASM (Combined Hydrology and Stability Model). Slope stability is continuously calculated on a web-processing service. Further on, registered users can create their personal simulations by selecting individual profiles by clicking on a map, and choosing scenarios for rainfall and slope moisture. A second model applies the concept of progressive failure to the slope. Warning is issued when a sudden increase in movement speed is reported by a stationary inclinometer chain. The third model utilizes the analysis of critical thresholds initiating movements. Definition of these thresholds is based

  11. Implementing drought early warning systems: policy lessons and future needs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iglesias, Ana; Werner, Micha; Maia, Rodrigo; Garrote, Luis; Nyabeze, Washington

    2014-05-01

    Drought forecasting and Warning provides the potential of reducing impacts to society due to drought events. The implementation of effective drought forecasting and warning, however, requires not only science to support reliable forecasting, but also adequate policy and societal response. Here we propose a protocol to develop drought forecasting and early warning based in the international cooperation of African and European institutions in the DEWFORA project (EC, 7th Framework Programme). The protocol includes four major phases that address the scientific knowledge and the social capacity to use the knowledge: (a) What is the science available? Evaluating how signs of impending drought can be detected and predicted, defining risk levels, and analysing of the signs of drought in an integrated vulnerability approach. (b) What are the societal capacities? In this the institutional framework that enables policy development is evaluated. The protocol gathers information on vulnerability and pending hazard in advance so that early warnings can be declared at sufficient lead time and drought mitigation planning can be implemented at an early stage. (c) How can science be translated into policy? Linking science indicators into the actions/interventions that society needs to implement, and evaluating how policy is implemented. Key limitations to planning for drought are the social capacities to implement early warning systems. Vulnerability assessment contributes to identify these limitations and therefore provides crucial information to policy development. Based on the assessment of vulnerability we suggest thresholds for management actions to respond to drought forecasts and link predictive indicators to relevant potential mitigation strategies. Vulnerability assessment is crucial to identify relief, coping and management responses that contribute to a more resilient society. (d) How can society benefit from the forecast? Evaluating how information is provided to

  12. [Infection surveillance in North Rhine-Westphalia--standard reports, barometer and early warning system].

    PubMed

    Rissland, J; van Treeck, U; Taeger, D; Baumeister, H-G

    2003-12-01

    The increasing significance of communicable diseases requires new surveillance tools. Modern electronic instruments in analysis and communication replace the former "handbased" statistics and allow the development of early warning systems. In North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) the Institute of Public Health started an approach to develop a modular surveillance system prior to the the implementation of the new German infectious disease protection act. The first module called "Automated infectious disease notifications and information system (AIM+)" generates various standard hypertext reports which are published as "Infectious disease reports NRW" on the internet (www.loegd.nrw.de). In addition the infectious disease information is linked with a geographical information system (GIS) giving spatial and temporal patterns. The second module called "Infectious disease barometer NRW" offers a quick actual overview highlighting several selected diseases. It can be electronically sent out to any interested person. The third module "Early warning system" realizes an effective early detection system by combining six statistical procedures with a total of 11 separate methods. In case of detecting clusters and outbreaks it automatically generates warning reports to the responsible parties. All three modules together improve the epidemiological surveillance of the population in NRW, support the translation of information to prevention and control measures, and therefore strengthen epidemiological policy-making. PMID:14685925

  13. ON-LINE TOXICITY MONITORS AND WATERSHED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    A Water Quality Early Warning System using On-line Toxicity Monitors (OTMs) has been deployed in the East Fork of the Little Miami River, Clermont County, OH. Living organisms have long been used to determine the toxicity of environmental samples. With advancements in electronic ...

  14. Implementing an Inpatient Social Early Warning System for Child Maltreatment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Atabaki, Armita; Heddaeus, Daniela; Metzner, Franka; Schulz, Holger; Siefert, Sonke; Pawils, Silke

    2013-01-01

    Objectives: The current article describes the process evaluation of a social early warning system (SEWS) for the prevention of child maltreatment in the federal state of Hamburg. This prevention initiative targets expectant mothers and their partners including an initial screening of risk factors for child maltreatment, a subsequent structured…

  15. Coral Reef Early Warning System (CREWS) RPC Experiment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Estep, Leland; Spruce, Joseph P.; Hall, Callie

    2007-01-01

    This viewgraph document reviews the background, objectives, methodology, validation, and present status of the Coral Reef Early Warning System (CREWS) Rapid Prototyping Capability (RPC) experiment. The potential NASA contribution to CREWS Decision Support Tool (DST) centers on remotely sensed imagery products.

  16. Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns

    PubMed Central

    Brock, William A.; Carpenter, Stephen R.; Ellison, Aaron M.; Livina, Valerie N.; Seekell, David A.; Scheffer, Marten; van Nes, Egbert H.; Dakos, Vasilis

    2014-01-01

    A number of ecosystems can exhibit abrupt shifts between alternative stable states. Because of their important ecological and economic consequences, recent research has focused on devising early warning signals for anticipating such abrupt ecological transitions. In particular, theoretical studies show that changes in spatial characteristics of the system could provide early warnings of approaching transitions. However, the empirical validation of these indicators lag behind their theoretical developments. Here, we summarize a range of currently available spatial early warning signals, suggest potential null models to interpret their trends, and apply them to three simulated spatial data sets of systems undergoing an abrupt transition. In addition to providing a step-by-step methodology for applying these signals to spatial data sets, we propose a statistical toolbox that may be used to help detect approaching transitions in a wide range of spatial data. We hope that our methodology together with the computer codes will stimulate the application and testing of spatial early warning signals on real spatial data. PMID:24658137

  17. Deep ocean early warning signals of an Atlantic MOC collapse

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, Qing Yi; Viebahn, Jan P.; Dijkstra, Henk A.

    2014-08-01

    A future collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) has been identified as one of the most dangerous tipping points in the climate system. It is therefore crucial to develop early warning indicators for such a potential collapse based on relatively short time series. So far, attempts to use indicators based on critical slowdown have been marginally successful. Based on complex climate network reconstruction, we here present a promising new indicator for the MOC collapse that efficiently monitors spatial changes in deep ocean circulation. Through our analysis of the performance of this indicator, we formulate optimal locations of measurement of the MOC to provide early warning signals of a collapse. Our results imply that an increase in spatial resolution of the Atlantic MOC observations (i.e., at more sections) can improve early detection, because the spatial coherence in the deep ocean arising near the transition is better captured.

  18. Performance of Early Warning Systems on Landslides in Central America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strauch, W.; Devoli, G.

    2012-04-01

    We performed a reconnaissance about Early Warning Systems (EWS) on Landslides (EWSL) in the countries of Central America. The advance of the EWSL began in the 1990-ies and accelerated dramatically after the regional disaster provoked by Hurricane Mitch in 1998. In the last decade, Early Warning Systems were intensely promoted by national and international development programs aimed on disaster prevention. Early Warning on landslides is more complicated than for other geological phenomena. But, we found information on more than 30 EWSL in the region. In practice, for example in planning, implementation and evaluation of development projects, it is often not clearly defined what exactly is an Early Warning System. Only few of the systems can be classified as true EWSL that means 1) being directly and solely aimed at persons living in the well-defined areas of greatest risk and 2) focusing their work on saving lives before the phenomenon impacts. There is little written information about the work of the EWSL after the initial phase. Even, there are no statistics whether they issued warnings, if the warnings were successful, how many people were evacuated, if there were few false alerts, etc.. Actually, we did not find a single report on a successful landslide warning issued by an EWSL. The lack of information is often due to the fact that communitarian EWSL are considered local structures and do not have a clearly defined position in the governmental hierarchy; there is little oversight and no qualified support and long-term support. The EWSL suffer from severe problems as lack of funding on the long term, low technical level, and insufficient support from central institutions. Often the EWSL are implemented by NGÓs with funding from international agencies, but leave the project alone after the initial phase. In many cases, the hope of the local people to get some protection against the landslide hazard is not really fulfilled. There is one case, where an EWSL with a

  19. Ecosystems for Early Warning: Potential Use of Bioindicators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zommers, Z. A.; Sitati, A. M.; Habilov, M.

    2014-12-01

    Bioindicators are biological processes, species or communities, which are used to assess changes in the environment or environmental quality. Theoretically, they could also be used to provide advanced warning of hazards. They are inexpensive, locally relevant, and can encourage stakeholder participation in early warning system development and maintenance. While bioindicators have been identified for environmental problems such as air pollution and water pollution, and have been used to assess health of ecosystems, little information is available on bioindicators for climate related hazards. This presentation reviews possible biodindicators for droughts, wildfires and tropical cyclones, based on the results of a literature review. It will also present results from a household survey of 36 communities in Kenya, Ghana and Burkina Faso. Indigenous knowledge offers a wealth of potential bioindicators; including animal and insect behavior, and plant phenology. Yet significant study is needed to verify these indicators and evaluate them against criteria such as specificity, variability, monotonicity, practicality and relevance. Bioindicators may not be specific to individual hazards and may provide limited advanced warning, as response often occurs after the actual onset of the hazard. Furthermore, indicators may become increasingly unreliable due to climate change itself. There is a need for a large-scale assessment of hazard bioindicators, which should also include forecasts of bioindicator change under global warming, and a cost-benefit analysis of the value of integrating bioindicators into early warning systems. Lessons can be drawn from ethnopharmacology. Coordinated research on this topic could contribute to the resilience of both ecosystems and human livelihoods.

  20. Artificial Neural Networks for Earthquake Early-Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boese, M.; Erdik, M.; Wenzel, F.

    2003-12-01

    The rapid urbanization and industrial development in areas of high seismic hazard increase the threat to human life and the vulnerability of industrial facilities by earthquakes. As earthquake prediction is elusive and, most likely, will not be achievable in near future, early-warning systems play a key role in earthquake loss reduction. Seismic waves propagate with significant lower velocity than information on these waves can be passed along to a vulnerable area or facility using modern telemetry systems. Within shortest time an earthquake early-warning system estimates the ground motion that will be caused by the oscillating seismic waves in the endangered area. Dependent on the predicted possible damage appropriate automatisms for loss reduction (such as the stoppage of trains or the interruption of gas pipelines) are triggered and executed some seconds to minutes before the devastating waves actually arrive. The Turkish megacity Istanbul faces a seismic hazard of particular severity due to its proximity to the complex fault system in the Marmara region. The likelihood for an seismic event of moment magnitude above 7.2 to occur within the next 30 years is estimated to be 70%. The Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response and Early-Warning System (IERREWS) is an important contribution to be prepared for future earthquakes in the region. The system is operated by the Kandilli Observatory and the Earthquake Research Institute of the Bogazici University in cooperation with other agencies. The early-warning part of IERREWS consists of ten strong motion stations with 24-bit resolution, communication links and processing facilities. The accelerometers are installed on the shoreline of the Marmara Sea and are operated in on-line mode for continuous and near-real time transfer of data. Using the example of the IERREWS station configuration and seismic background of the Marmara region we present an approach that considers the problem of earthquake early-warning as a pattern

  1. Application of Seismic Array Processing to Tsunami Early Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    An, C.; Meng, L.

    2015-12-01

    Tsunami wave predictions of the current tsunami warning systems rely on accurate earthquake source inversions of wave height data. They are of limited effectiveness for the near-field areas since the tsunami waves arrive before data are collected. Recent seismic and tsunami disasters have revealed the need for early warning to protect near-source coastal populations. In this work we developed the basis for a tsunami warning system based on rapid earthquake source characterisation through regional seismic array back-projections. We explored rapid earthquake source imaging using onshore dense seismic arrays located at regional distances on the order of 1000 km, which provides faster source images than conventional teleseismic back-projections. We implement this method in a simulated real-time environment, and analysed the 2011 Tohoku earthquake rupture with two clusters of Hi-net stations in Kyushu and Northern Hokkaido, and the 2014 Iquique event with the Earthscope USArray Transportable Array. The results yield reasonable estimates of rupture area, which is approximated by an ellipse and leads to the construction of simple slip models based on empirical scaling of the rupture area, seismic moment and average slip. The slip model is then used as the input of the tsunami simulation package COMCOT to predict the tsunami waves. In the example of the Tohoku event, the earthquake source model can be acquired within 6 minutes from the start of rupture and the simulation of tsunami waves takes less than 2 min, which could facilitate a timely tsunami warning. The predicted arrival time and wave amplitude reasonably fit observations. Based on this method, we propose to develop an automatic warning mechanism that provides rapid near-field warning for areas of high tsunami risk. The initial focus will be Japan, Pacific Northwest and Alaska, where dense seismic networks with the capability of real-time data telemetry and open data accessibility, such as the Japanese HiNet (>800

  2. Evaluation of Passive Samplers as a Monitoring Tool for Early Warning of Dinophysis Toxins in Shellfish

    PubMed Central

    Pizarro, Gemita; Moroño, Ángeles; Paz, Beatriz; Franco, José M.; Pazos, Yolanda; Reguera, Beatriz

    2013-01-01

    From June 2006 to January 2007 passive samplers (solid phase adsorbing toxin tracking, SPATT) were tested as a monitoring tool with weekly monitoring of phytoplankton and toxin content (liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry, LC-MS) in picked cells of Dinophysis and plankton concentrates. Successive blooms of Dinophysis acuminata, D. acuta and D. caudata in 2006 caused a long mussel harvesting closure (4.5 months) in the Galician Rías (NW Spain) and a record (up to 9246 ng·g resin-week−1) accumulation of toxins in SPATT discs. Best fit of a toxin accumulation model was between toxin accumulation in SPATT and the product of cell densities by a constant value, for each species of Dinophysis, of toxin content (average) in picked cells. Detection of Dinophysis populations provided earlier warning of oncoming diarrhetic shellfish poisoning (DSP) outbreaks than the SPATT, which at times overestimated the expected toxin levels in shellfish because: (i) SPATT accumulated toxins did not include biotransformation and depuration loss terms and (ii) accumulation of toxins not available to mussels continued for weeks after Dinophysis cells were undetectable and mussels were toxin-free. SPATT may be a valuable environmental monitoring and research tool for toxin dynamics, in particular in areas with no aquaculture, but does not provide a practical gain for early warning of DSP outbreaks. PMID:24152559

  3. A communication model for interlinking national tsunami early warning systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lendholt, M.; Hammitzsch, M.; Esbri Palomares, M. A.

    2012-04-01

    The integration of national Tsunami Early Earning Systems (TEWS) to ocean-wide networks is a main objective of the UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanic Commission (IOC) tsunami programme. The intention is to interlink national TEWSs leveraging warning communication during hazards. For this purpose a communication model has been developed enabling an efficient message exchange within a centre-to-centre (C2C) communication in a system-of-systems environment. The model, designed to be robust and simple, is based on existing interoperability standards from the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) and the Organization of the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS). For the exchange of tsunami warning bulletins the Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) is used. It supports geospatial referencing by addressing geocoded Points of Interests (POIs), Areas of Interest (AOIs) and Coastal Forecast Zones (CFZs). Moreover it supports hazard classification by standardized criticality parameters and the transmission of attachments, e.g. situation maps. The communication model also supports the exchange of sensor observations and measurements such as sea level data or earthquake parameters. For this purpose markup languages of the Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) suite are used. Both communication products, warning bulletins and sensor observations, are embedded in an envelope providing addressing and routing information using the Emergency Data Exchange Language Distribution Element (EDXL-DE). The communication model has been implemented in a first pilot based on Message Oriented Middleware (MOM). Implementation, test and validation was started in the European research project Distant Early Warning System (DEWS) and is continued successively in the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC). Stimulated by the concepts and results of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and based on its sensor integration platform

  4. Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Verdin, James P.

    2006-01-01

    The FEWS NET mission is to identify potentially food-insecure conditions early through the provision of timely and analytical hazard and vulnerability information. U.S. Government decision-makers act on this information to authorize mitigation and response activities. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) FEWS NET provides tools and data for monitoring and forecasting the incidence of drought and flooding to identify shocks to the food supply system that could lead to famine. Historically focused on Africa, the scope of the network has expanded to be global coverage. FEWS NET implementing partners include the USGS, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), United States Agency for International Development (USAID), United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), and Chemonics International.

  5. Technology, conflict early warning systems, public health, and human rights.

    PubMed

    Pham, Phuong N; Vinck, Patrick

    2012-01-01

    Public health and conflict early warning are evolving rapidly in response to technology changes for the gathering, management, analysis and communication of data. It is expected that these changes will provide an unprecedented ability to monitor, detect, and respond to crises. One of the potentially most profound and lasting expected change affects the roles of the various actors in providing and sharing information and in responding to early warning. Communities and civil society actors have the opportunity to be empowered as a source of information, analysis, and response, while the role of traditional actors shifts toward supporting those communities and building resilience. However, by creating new roles, relationships, and responsibilities, technology changes raise major concerns and ethical challenges for practitioners, pressing the need for practical guidelines and actionable recommendations in line with existing ethical principles. PMID:23568944

  6. Role of remote sensing in desert locust early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cressman, Keith

    2013-01-01

    Desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria, Forskål) plagues have historically had devastating consequences on food security in Africa and Asia. The current strategy to reduce the frequency of plagues and manage desert locust infestations is early warning and preventive control. To achieve this, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations operates one of the oldest, largest, and best-known migratory pest monitoring systems in the world. Within this system, remote sensing plays an important role in detecting rainfall and green vegetation. Despite recent technological advances in data management and analysis, communications, and remote sensing, monitoring desert locusts and preventing plagues in the years ahead will continue to be a challenge from a geopolitical and financial standpoint for affected countries and the international donor community. We present an overview of the use of remote sensing in desert locust early warning.

  7. The pathway to earthquake early warning in the US

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, R. M.; Given, D. D.; Heaton, T. H.; Vidale, J. E.; West Coast Earthquake Early Warning Development Team

    2013-05-01

    The development of earthquake early warning capabilities in the United States is now accelerating and expanding as the technical capability to provide warning is demonstrated and additional funding resources are making it possible to expand the current testing region to the entire west coast (California, Oregon and Washington). Over the course of the next two years we plan to build a prototype system that will provide a blueprint for a full public system in the US. California currently has a demonstrations warning system, ShakeAlert, that provides alerts to a group of test users from the public and private sector. These include biotech companies, technology companies, the entertainment industry, the transportation sector, and the emergency planning and response community. Most groups are currently in an evaluation mode, receiving the alerts and developing protocols for future response. The Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) system is the one group who has now implemented an automated response to the warning system. BART now stops trains when an earthquake of sufficient size is detected. Research and development also continues to develop improved early warning algorithms to better predict the distribution of shaking in large earthquakes when the finiteness of the source becomes important. The algorithms under development include the use of both seismic and GPS instrumentation and integration with existing point source algorithms. At the same time, initial testing and development of algorithms in and for the Pacific Northwest is underway. In this presentation we will review the current status of the systems, highlight the new research developments, and lay out a pathway to a full public system for the US west coast. The research and development described is ongoing at Caltech, UC Berkeley, University of Washington, ETH Zurich, Southern California Earthquake Center, and the US Geological Survey, and is funded by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation and the US Geological

  8. Site correction of earthquake early warning system in Ilan, Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiao Chu, Hsu; Liang, Wen Kuo; Jyun Yan, Huang

    2015-04-01

    When large earthquake occurs, earthquake early warning (EEW) provides alerts to urban areas of the forthcoming strong ground shaking. Depending on the specific geometry of the epicenter and the strong motion network used in EEW, the warning time can be a few seconds to tens of seconds. This warning time can be extremely important since even a few seconds can be sufficient for pre-programmed systems to have emergency response. The Central Weather Bureau (CWB) had already used network EEW system to predict intensity map. Due to leveling of intensity was roughly divided into seven grades according to peak acceleration (PGA) in Taiwan, the warning message is not cautious for company, home and school use, the accuracy of predicted PGA were discuss for our result. A practical site correction approach for EEW was constructed in this study. Period parameter (τc) and an amplitude parameter (Pd)from the initial 3 seconds of P waves were calculated after Wu et al.(2005) first for each site of Taiwan Strong-Motion Instrumentation Program (TSMIP) in Ilan, Taiwan for focal depths less than 35 km and magnitude Mw>=5.0. Two pairs of linear relations had showed in each station between τc, magnitude (Mw) and Pd, hypocenter distance (R) that could be corrected individually. Prediction results of PGA from site correction based ground motion prediction equation (Jean et al. 2006) indicated that the corrected parameters of EEW in this study had improved the accuracy of ground motion prediction. Which means reasonable site correction of each station was needed for EEW system. Key works: earthquake early warning, P wave, site correction

  9. Climate science and famine early warning

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Verdin, J.; Funk, C.; Senay, G.; Choularton, R.

    2005-01-01

    Food security assessment in sub-Saharan Africa requires simultaneous consideration of multiple socio-economic and environmental variables. Early identification of populations at risk enables timely and appropriate action. Since large and widely dispersed populations depend on rainfed agriculture and pastoralism, climate monitoring and forecasting are important inputs to food security analysis. Satellite rainfall estimates (RFE) fill in gaps in station observations, and serve as input to drought index maps and crop water balance models. Gridded rainfall time-series give historical context, and provide a basis for quantitative interpretation of seasonal precipitation forecasts. RFE are also used to characterize flood hazards, in both simple indices and stream flow models. In the future, many African countries are likely to see negative impacts on subsistence agriculture due to the effects of global warming. Increased climate variability is forecast, with more frequent extreme events. Ethiopia requires special attention. Already facing a food security emergency, troubling persistent dryness has been observed in some areas, associated with a positive trend in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures. Increased African capacity for rainfall observation, forecasting, data management and modelling applications is urgently needed. Managing climate change and increased climate variability require these fundamental technical capacities if creative coping strategies are to be devised. ?? 2005 The Royal Society.

  10. Climate science and famine early warning.

    PubMed

    Verdin, James; Funk, Chris; Senay, Gabriel; Choularton, Richard

    2005-11-29

    Food security assessment in sub-Saharan Africa requires simultaneous consideration of multiple socio-economic and environmental variables. Early identification of populations at risk enables timely and appropriate action. Since large and widely dispersed populations depend on rainfed agriculture and pastoralism, climate monitoring and forecasting are important inputs to food security analysis. Satellite rainfall estimates (RFE) fill in gaps in station observations, and serve as input to drought index maps and crop water balance models. Gridded rainfall time-series give historical context, and provide a basis for quantitative interpretation of seasonal precipitation forecasts. RFE are also used to characterize flood hazards, in both simple indices and stream flow models. In the future, many African countries are likely to see negative impacts on subsistence agriculture due to the effects of global warming. Increased climate variability is forecast, with more frequent extreme events. Ethiopia requires special attention. Already facing a food security emergency, troubling persistent dryness has been observed in some areas, associated with a positive trend in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures. Increased African capacity for rainfall observation, forecasting, data management and modelling applications is urgently needed. Managing climate change and increased climate variability require these fundamental technical capacities if creative coping strategies are to be devised. PMID:16433101

  11. Climate science and famine early warning

    PubMed Central

    Verdin, James; Funk, Chris; Senay, Gabriel; Choularton, Richard

    2005-01-01

    Food security assessment in sub-Saharan Africa requires simultaneous consideration of multiple socio-economic and environmental variables. Early identification of populations at risk enables timely and appropriate action. Since large and widely dispersed populations depend on rainfed agriculture and pastoralism, climate monitoring and forecasting are important inputs to food security analysis. Satellite rainfall estimates (RFE) fill in gaps in station observations, and serve as input to drought index maps and crop water balance models. Gridded rainfall time-series give historical context, and provide a basis for quantitative interpretation of seasonal precipitation forecasts. RFE are also used to characterize flood hazards, in both simple indices and stream flow models. In the future, many African countries are likely to see negative impacts on subsistence agriculture due to the effects of global warming. Increased climate variability is forecast, with more frequent extreme events. Ethiopia requires special attention. Already facing a food security emergency, troubling persistent dryness has been observed in some areas, associated with a positive trend in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures. Increased African capacity for rainfall observation, forecasting, data management and modelling applications is urgently needed. Managing climate change and increased climate variability require these fundamental technical capacities if creative coping strategies are to be devised. PMID:16433101

  12. Early warning of atmospheric regime transitions using transfer operators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tantet, Alexis; Dijkstra, Henk

    2015-04-01

    The existence of persistent midlatitude atmospheric regimes, such as blocking events, with time scales larger than 5-10 days and indications of preferred transition paths between them motivates the development of early-warning indicators of regime transitions. Here, we use a barotropic model of the northern midlatitudes winter flow to study such meta-stable regimes. We look at estimates of transfer operators acting on densities evolving on a reduced phase space spanned by the first Empirical Orthogonal Functions of the streamfunction and develop an early-warning indicator of zonal to blocked flow transition. The study of the spectra of transfer operators estimated for different lags reveals a multi-level structure in the flow as well as the effect of memory on the reduced dynamics due to past interactions between the resolved and unresolved variables. The slowest motions in the reduced phase space are thereby found to have time scales larger than 8 days and to behave as Markovian for larger lags. These motions are associated with meta-stable regimes and their transitions and can be detected as almost-invariant sets of the transfer operator. The early-warning indicator is based on the action on an initial density of products of the transfer operators estimated for sufficiently long lags, making use of the semi-group property of these operators and shows relatively good Peirce skill score. From the energy budget of the model, we are able to explain the meta-stability of the regimes and the existence of preferred transition paths as the manifestation of barotropic instability. Finally, even though the model is highly simplified, the skill of the early warning indicator is promising, suggesting that the transfer operator approach can be used in parallel to an operational deterministic model for stochastic prediction or to assess forecast uncertainty.

  13. Risk management: application of early warning systems to emergency plans

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcia, C.; Sterlacchini, S.; Pasuto, A.; de Amicis, M.

    2009-04-01

    Warning System and emergency plans are two fundamental elements of risk management and governance, but unfortunately, most of the times, they are developed independently one from the other, as sequential steps not necessary linked. The main goal of this research is to develop a methodology for applying Early Warning Systems - Community Based to the emergency plan using the results of social surveys and quantitative risk assessment, taking into account the administrative structure and the planning system of the study area, as well as the legislative obligations of each entity involved in the risk governance and emergency management. Using a integrative scientific and social approach to natural hazards the research aim to contribute to fill the gap between scientists, policy makers, stakeholders and community. Initially applied in Comunità Montana Valtellina di Tirano, Italy, the methodology involves the application of two comprehensive surveys. The first is addressed to stakeholders (including policy makers, emergency managers, emergency volunteers, consultants and scientists) in order to determine their needs, points of view, concerns and constraints. The second survey is addressed specifically to local community to assess risk perception, awareness, needs, capacity and level of trust towards stakeholders, besides asking for their willingness to participate in future risk communication activities. The Early Warning System developed includes all the stages of the early warning process (hazard evaluation and forecasting; warning and dissemination and public response) and would be based on a multidisciplinary partnership that takes into account the different actors involved in the risk management in order to accomplish a more reliable and credible result, including an emergency plan specifically designed for each study area. After evaluating the results of the surveys, information and education campaigns will be developed with the objective of reducing vulnerability

  14. Seasonal Water Balance Forecasts for Drought Early Warning in Ethiopia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spirig, Christoph; Bhend, Jonas; Liniger, Mark

    2016-04-01

    Droughts severely impact Ethiopian agricultural production. Successful early warning for drought conditions in the upcoming harvest season therefore contributes to better managing food shortages arising from adverse climatic conditions. So far, however, meteorological seasonal forecasts have not been used in Ethiopia's national food security early warning system (i.e. the LEAP platform). Here we analyse the forecast quality of seasonal forecasts of total rainfall and of the meteorological water balance as a proxy for plant available water. We analyse forecast skill of June to September rainfall and water balance from dynamical seasonal forecast systems, the ECMWF System4 and EC-EARTH global forecasting systems. Rainfall forecasts outperform forecasts assuming a stationary climate mainly in north-eastern Ethiopia - an area that is particularly vulnerable to droughts. Forecasts of the water balance index seem to be even more skilful and thus more useful than pure rainfall forecasts. The results vary though for different lead times and skill measures employed. We further explore the potential added value of dynamically downscaling the forecasts through several dynamical regional climate models made available through the EU FP7 project EUPORIAS. Preliminary results suggest that dynamically downscaled seasonal forecasts are not significantly better compared with seasonal forecasts from the global models. We conclude that seasonal forecasts of a simple climate index such as the water balance have the potential to benefit drought early warning in Ethiopia, both due to its positive predictive skill and higher usefulness than seasonal mean quantities.

  15. Early warning signals of tipping points in periodically forced systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williamson, M. S.; Bathiany, S.; Lenton, T. M.

    2015-11-01

    The prospect of finding generic early warning signals of an approaching tipping point in a complex system has generated much recent interest. Existing methods are predicated on a separation of timescales between the system studied and its forcing. However, many systems, including several candidate tipping elements in the climate system, are forced periodically at a timescale comparable to their internal dynamics. Here we find alternative early warning signals of tipping points due to local bifurcations in systems subjected to periodic forcing whose time scale is similar to the period of the forcing. These systems are not in, or close to, a fixed point. Instead their steady state is described by a periodic attractor. We show that the phase lag and amplification of the system response provide early warning signals, based on a linear dynamics approximation. Furthermore, the power spectrum of the system's time series reveals the generation of harmonics of the forcing period, the size of which are proportional to how nonlinear the system's response is becoming with nonlinear effects becoming more prominent closer to a bifurcation. We apply these indicators to a simple conceptual system and satellite observations of Arctic sea ice area, the latter conjectured to have a bifurcation type tipping point. We find no detectable signal of the Arctic sea ice approaching a local bifurcation.

  16. Early warning signals of tipping points in periodically forced systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williamson, Mark S.; Bathiany, Sebastian; Lenton, Timothy M.

    2016-04-01

    The prospect of finding generic early warning signals of an approaching tipping point in a complex system has generated much interest recently. Existing methods are predicated on a separation of timescales between the system studied and its forcing. However, many systems, including several candidate tipping elements in the climate system, are forced periodically at a timescale comparable to their internal dynamics. Here we use alternative early warning signals of tipping points due to local bifurcations in systems subjected to periodic forcing whose timescale is similar to the period of the forcing. These systems are not in, or close to, a fixed point. Instead their steady state is described by a periodic attractor. For these systems, phase lag and amplification of the system response can provide early warning signals, based on a linear dynamics approximation. Furthermore, the Fourier spectrum of the system's time series reveals harmonics of the forcing period in the system response whose amplitude is related to how nonlinear the system's response is becoming with nonlinear effects becoming more prominent closer to a bifurcation. We apply these indicators as well as a return map analysis to a simple conceptual system and satellite observations of Arctic sea ice area, the latter conjectured to have a bifurcation type tipping point. We find no detectable signal of the Arctic sea ice approaching a local bifurcation.

  17. The impact of the disease early warning system in responding to natural disasters and conflict crises in Pakistan.

    PubMed

    Rahim, M; Kazi, B M; Bile, K M; Munir, M; Khan, A R

    2010-01-01

    The disease early warning system (DEWS) was introduced in the immediate aftermath of the 2005 earthquake in Pakistan, with the objective to undertake prompt investigation and mitigation of disease outbreaks. The DEWS network was replicated successfully during subsequent flood and earthquake disasters as well as during the 2008-09 internally displaced persons' crisis. DEWS-generated alerts, prompt investigations and timely responses had an effective contribution to the control of epidemics. Through DEWS, 1360 reported alerts during 2005-09 averted the risk of disease outbreaks through pre-emptive necessary measures, while the 187 confirmed outbreaks were effectively controlled. In the aftermath of the disasters, DEWS technology also facilitated the development of a disease-surveillance system that became an integral part of the district health system. This study aims to report the DEWS success and substantiate its lead role as a priority emergency health response intervention. PMID:21495597

  18. Earthquake Early Warning Beta Users: Java, Modeling, and Mobile Apps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strauss, J. A.; Vinci, M.; Steele, W. P.; Allen, R. M.; Hellweg, M.

    2014-12-01

    Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) is a system that can provide a few to tens of seconds warning prior to ground shaking at a user's location. The goal and purpose of such a system is to reduce, or minimize, the damage, costs, and casualties resulting from an earthquake. A demonstration earthquake early warning system (ShakeAlert) is undergoing testing in the United States by the UC Berkeley Seismological Laboratory, Caltech, ETH Zurich, University of Washington, the USGS, and beta users in California and the Pacific Northwest. The beta users receive earthquake information very rapidly in real-time and are providing feedback on their experiences of performance and potential uses within their organization. Beta user interactions allow the ShakeAlert team to discern: which alert delivery options are most effective, what changes would make the UserDisplay more useful in a pre-disaster situation, and most importantly, what actions users plan to take for various scenarios. Actions could include: personal safety approaches, such as drop cover, and hold on; automated processes and procedures, such as opening elevator or fire stations doors; or situational awareness. Users are beginning to determine which policy and technological changes may need to be enacted, and funding requirements to implement their automated controls. The use of models and mobile apps are beginning to augment the basic Java desktop applet. Modeling allows beta users to test their early warning responses against various scenarios without having to wait for a real event. Mobile apps are also changing the possible response landscape, providing other avenues for people to receive information. All of these combine to improve business continuity and resiliency.

  19. Drought early warning and risk management in a changing environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pulwarty, R. S.

    2011-12-01

    Drought has long been recognized as falling into the category of incremental but long-term and cumulative environmental changes, also termed slow-onset or creeping events. These event types would include: air and water quality decline, desertification processes, deforestation and forest fragmentation, loss of biodiversity and habitats, and nitrogen overloading, among others. Climate scientists continue to struggle with recognizing the onset of drought and scientists and policy makers continue to debate the basis (i.e., criteria) for declaring an end to a drought. Risk-based management approaches to drought planning at the national and regional levels have been recommended repeatedly over the years but their prototyping, testing and operational implementation have been limited. This presentation will outline two avenues for disaster risk reduction in the context of drought (1) integrated early warning information systems, and (2) linking disaster risk reduction to climate change adaptation strategies. Adaptation involves not only using operational facilities and infrastructure to cope with the immediate problems but also leaving slack or reserve for coping with multiple stress problems that produce extreme impacts and surprise. Increasing the 'anticipatability' of an event, involves both monitoring of key indicators from appropriate baseline data, and observing early warning signs that assumptions in risk management plans are failing and critical transitions are occurring. Illustrative cases will be drawn from the IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters (2011), the UN Global Assessment of Disaster Risk Reduction (2011) and implementation activities in which the author has been engaged. Most drought early warning systems have tended to focus on the development and use of physical system indicators and forecasts of trends and thresholds. We show that successful early warning systems that meet expectations of risk management also have

  20. A Walk through TRIDEC's intermediate Tsunami Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hammitzsch, M.; Reißland, S.; Lendholt, M.

    2012-04-01

    The management of natural crises is an important application field of the technology developed in the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC), co-funded by the European Commission in its Seventh Framework Programme. TRIDEC is based on the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS) providing a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination. In TRIDEC new developments in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) are used to extend the existing platform realising a component-based technology framework for building distributed tsunami warning systems for deployment, e.g. in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Connected Seas (NEAM) region. The TRIDEC system will be implemented in three phases, each with a demonstrator. Successively, the demonstrators are addressing challenges, such as the design and implementation of a robust and scalable service infrastructure supporting the integration and utilisation of existing resources with accelerated generation of large volumes of data. These include sensor systems, geo-information repositories, simulation tools and data fusion tools. In addition to conventional sensors also unconventional sensors and sensor networks play an important role in TRIDEC. The system version presented is based on service-oriented architecture (SOA) concepts and on relevant standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS). In this way the system continuously gathers, processes and displays events and data coming from open sensor platforms to enable operators to quickly decide whether an early warning is necessary and to send personalized warning messages to the authorities and the population at large through a wide range of communication channels. The system

  1. Early warning, warning or alarm systems for natural hazards? A generic classification.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sättele, Martina; Bründl, Michael; Straub, Daniel

    2013-04-01

    Early warning, warning and alarm systems have gained popularity in recent years as cost-efficient measures for dangerous natural hazard processes such as floods, storms, rock and snow avalanches, debris flows, rock and ice falls, landslides, flash floods, glacier lake outburst floods, forest fires and even earthquakes. These systems can generate information before an event causes loss of property and life. In this way, they mainly mitigate the overall risk by reducing the presence probability of endangered objects. These systems are typically prototypes tailored to specific project needs. Despite their importance there is no recognised system classification. This contribution classifies warning and alarm systems into three classes: i) threshold systems, ii) expert systems and iii) model-based expert systems. The result is a generic classification, which takes the characteristics of the natural hazard process itself and the related monitoring possibilities into account. The choice of the monitoring parameters directly determines the system's lead time. The classification of 52 active systems moreover revealed typical system characteristics for each system class. i) Threshold systems monitor dynamic process parameters of ongoing events (e.g. water level of a debris flow) and incorporate minor lead times. They have a local geographical coverage and a predefined threshold determines if an alarm is automatically activated to warn endangered objects, authorities and system operators. ii) Expert systems monitor direct changes in the variable disposition (e.g crack opening before a rock avalanche) or trigger events (e.g. heavy rain) at a local scale before the main event starts and thus offer extended lead times. The final alarm decision incorporates human, model and organisational related factors. iii) Model-based expert systems monitor indirect changes in the variable disposition (e.g. snow temperature, height or solar radiation that influence the occurrence probability

  2. The Earthquake Early Warning of Japan Meteorological Agency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakamura, M.; Hirano, K.; Yamada, Y.; Kikuta, H.; Hoshiba, M.

    2013-05-01

    We review the operation of nationwide Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) of JMA. Then we show its performance of the cases of the 2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake (Mw9.0) and its aftershocks. After that, we present some lessons from the experience and future plans to improve the system. JMA began to operate the EEW nationwide in October, 2007. We predict seismic intensities and arrival times of S waves after determining the hypocenter by a combination of several techniques; the magnitude by maximum displacement amplitudes. The main part of the system uses 220 stations. The JMA EEWs are updated repeatedly as available data increases with elapsed time. The JMA seismic intensity scale is based on instrumental measurements which consider not only the amplitude but also the frequency and duration of the shaking. The scale has 10 degrees. Intensities of 5 and 6 are divided into 2 degrees, namely 5-lower, 5-upper, 6-lower and 6-upper, respectively. Intensity 1 corresponds to the ground motion that people can barely detect and 7 is the upper limit. There are 2 categories for the JMA EEW. The first one is "forecast" for the limited users, and the other is "warning" for the public. We issue the forecast in the case where the estimated maximum intensity exceeds 2, or estimated magnitude is larger than 3.5. We announce the warning through TV and cell phones to the general public when we predict the maximum intensity 5-lower or larger to the areas where the estimated intensities exceed 3. The forecast is updated whenever it is necessary, but we provide the updated warning only when the estimated intensities become 5-lower or larger from less than 4 in some areas, and limit it within 60 s after the first detection. The warning of the EEW was disseminated 30 s after the Mw9.0 event occurrence, which was 8 s after the first detection. The estimated magnitude was 7.2 at the time and the warning was issued for Tohoku. We could provide the warning before the arrival of S

  3. Development of an operational coastal flooding early warning system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doong, D.-J.; Chuang, L. Z.-H.; Wu, L.-C.; Fan, Y.-M.; Kao, C. C.; Wang, J.-H.

    2012-02-01

    Coastal floods are a consistent threat to oceanfront countries, causing major human suffering and substantial economic losses. Climate change is exacerbating the problem. An early warning system is essential to mitigate the loss of life and property from coastal flooding. The purpose of this study is to develop a coastal flooding early warning system (CoFEWs) by integrating existing sea-state monitoring technology, numerical ocean forecasting models, historical database and experiences, as well as computer science. The proposed system has capability of offering data for the past, information for the present and future. The system was developed for the Taiwanese coast due to its frequent threat by typhoons. An operational system without any manual work is the basic requirement of the system. Integration of various data sources is the system kernel. Numerical ocean models play an important role within the system because they provide data for assessment of possible flooding. The regional wave model (SWAN) that nested with the large domain wave model (NWW III) is operationally set up for coastal wave forecasting, in addition to the storm surge predicted by a POM model. Data assimilation technology is incorporated for enhanced accuracy. A warning signal is presented when the storm water level that accumulated from astronomical tide, storm surge, and wave-induced run-up exceeds the alarm sea level. This warning system has been in practical use for coastal flooding damage mitigation in Taiwan for years. An example of the system operation during the Typhoon Haitung which struck Taiwan in 2005 is illustrated in this study.

  4. Early Warning Implementation Guide: "Using the Massachusetts Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS) and Local Data to Identify, Diagnose, Support, and Monitor Students in Grades 1-12"

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education, 2014

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this guide is to provide information on how to use early warning data, including the Massachusetts Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS), to identify, diagnose, support and monitor students in grades 1-12. It offers educators an overview of EWIS and how to effectively use these data in conjunction with local data by following a…

  5. Early Warning System Implementation Guide: For Use with the National High School Center's Early Warning System Tool v2.0

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Therriault, Susan Bowles; Heppen, Jessica; O'Cummings, Mindee; Fryer, Lindsay; Johnson, Amy

    2010-01-01

    This Early Warning System (EWS) Implementation Guide is a supporting document for schools and districts that are implementing the National High School Center's Early Warning System (EWS) Tool v2.0. Developed by the National High School Center at the American Institutes for Research (AIR), the guide and tool support the establishment and…

  6. Innovation in observation: a vision for early outbreak detection

    PubMed Central

    Fefferman, NH; Naumova, EN

    2010-01-01

    The emergence of new infections and resurgence of old ones—health threats stemming from environmental contamination or purposeful acts of bioterrorism—call for a worldwide effort in improving early outbreak detection, with the goal of ameliorating current and future risks. In some cases, the problem of outbreak detection is logistically straightforward and mathematically easy: a single case of a disease of great concern can constitute an outbreak. However, for the vast majority of maladies, a simple analytical solution does not exist. Furthermore, each step in developing reliable, sensitive, effective surveillance systems demonstrates enormous complexities in the transmission, manifestation, detection, and control of emerging health threats. In this communication, we explore potential future innovations in early outbreak detection systems that can overcome the pitfalls of current surveillance. We believe that modern advances in assembling data, techniques for collating and processing information, and technology that enables integrated analysis will facilitate a new paradigm in outbreak definition and detection. We anticipate that moving forward in this direction will provide the highly desired sensitivity and specificity in early detection required to meet the emerging challenges of global disease surveillance. PMID:22460396

  7. Development and Operation of Space-Based Disease Early Warning Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    John, M. M.

    2010-12-01

    Millions of people die every year from preventable diseases such as malaria and cholera. Pandemics put the entire world population at risk and have the potential to kill thousands and cripple the global economy. In light of these dangers, it is fortunate that the data and imagery gathered by remote sensing satellites can be used to develop models that predict areas at risk for outbreaks. These warnings can help decision makers to distribute preventative medicine and other forms of aid to save lives. There are already many Earth observing satellites in orbit with the ability to provide data and imagery. Researchers have created a number of models based on this information, and some are being used in real-life situations. These capabilities should be further developed and supported by governments and international organizations to benefit as many people as possible. To understand the benefits and challenges of disease early warning models, it is useful to understand how they are developed. A number of steps must occur for satellite data and imagery to be used to prevent disease outbreaks; each requires a variety of inputs and may include a range of experts and stakeholders. This paper discusses the inputs, outputs, and basic processes involved in each of six main steps to developing models, including: identifying and validating links between a disease and environmental factors, creating and validating a software model to predict outbreaks, transitioning a model to operational use, using a model operationally, and taking action on the data provided by the model. The paper briefly overviews past research regarding the link between remote sensing data and disease, and identifies ongoing research in academic centers around the world. The activities of three currently operational models are discussed, including the U.S. Department of Defense Global Emerging Infections Surveillance and Response System (DoD-GEIS), NASA carries out its Malaria Modeling and Surveillance

  8. TRMM Applications for Rainfall-Induced Landslide Early Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dok, A.; Fukuoka, H.; Hong, Y.

    2012-04-01

    Early warning system (EWS) is the most effective method in saving lives and reducing property damages resulted from the catastrophic landslides if properly implemented in populated areas of landslide-prone nations. For predicting the occurrence of landslides, it requires examination of empirical relationship between rainfall characteristics and past landslide occurrence. In developed countries like Japan and the US, precipitation is monitored by rain radars and ground-based rain gauge matrix. However, in developing regions like Southeast Asian countries, very limited number of rain gauges is available, and there is no implemented methodology for issuing effective warming of landslides yet. Correspondingly, satellite precipitation monitoring could be therefore a possible and promising solution for launching landslide quasi-real-time early warning system in those countries. It is due to the fact that TMPA (TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis) can provides a globally calibration-based sequential scheme for combining precipitation estimates from multiple satellites, and gauge analyses where feasible, at fine scales (3-hourly with 0.25°x0.25° spatial resolution). It is available both after and in quasi-real time, calibrated by TRMM Combined Instrument and TRMM Microwave Imager precipitation product. However, validation of ground based rain gauge and TRMM satellite data in the vulnerable regions is still not yet operative. Snake-line/Critical-line and Soil Water Index (SWI) are used for issuing warning of landslide occurrence in Japan; whereas, Caine criterion is preferable in Europe and western nations. Herewith, it presents rainfall behavior which took place in Beichuan city (located on the 2008 Chinese Wenchuan earthquake fault), Hofu and Shobara cities in Japan where localized heavy rainfall attacked in 2009 and 2010, respectively, from TRMM 3B42RT correlated with ground based rain gauge data. The 1-day rainfall intensity and 15-day cumulative rainfall

  9. Geospatiotemporal Data Mining in an Early Warning System for Forest Threats in the United States

    SciTech Connect

    Hoffman, Forrest M; Mills, Richard T; Kumar, Jitendra; Vulli, Srinivasa S; HargroveJr., William Walter

    2010-01-01

    We investigate the potential of geospatiotemporal data mining of multi-year land surface phenology data (250~m Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) in this study) for the conterminous United States as part of an early warning system to identify threats to forest ecosystems. Cluster analysis of this massive data set, using high-performance computing, provides a basis for several possible approaches to defining the bounds of ``normal'' phenological patterns, indicating healthy vegetation in a given geographic location. We demonstrate the applicability of such an approach, using it to identify areas in Colorado, USA, where an ongoing mountain pine beetle outbreak has caused significant tree mortality.

  10. Surveillance of Dengue Fever Virus: A Review of Epidemiological Models and Early Warning Systems

    PubMed Central

    Racloz, Vanessa; Ramsey, Rebecca; Tong, Shilu; Hu, Wenbiao

    2012-01-01

    Dengue fever affects over a 100 million people annually hence is one of the world's most important vector-borne diseases. The transmission area of this disease continues to expand due to many direct and indirect factors linked to urban sprawl, increased travel and global warming. Current preventative measures include mosquito control programs, yet due to the complex nature of the disease and the increased importation risk along with the lack of efficient prophylactic measures, successful disease control and elimination is not realistic in the foreseeable future. Epidemiological models attempt to predict future outbreaks using information on the risk factors of the disease. Through a systematic literature review, this paper aims at analyzing the different modeling methods and their outputs in terms of acting as an early warning system. We found that many previous studies have not sufficiently accounted for the spatio-temporal features of the disease in the modeling process. Yet with advances in technology, the ability to incorporate such information as well as the socio-environmental aspect allowed for its use as an early warning system, albeit limited geographically to a local scale. PMID:22629476

  11. Surveillance of dengue fever virus: a review of epidemiological models and early warning systems.

    PubMed

    Racloz, Vanessa; Ramsey, Rebecca; Tong, Shilu; Hu, Wenbiao

    2012-01-01

    Dengue fever affects over a 100 million people annually hence is one of the world's most important vector-borne diseases. The transmission area of this disease continues to expand due to many direct and indirect factors linked to urban sprawl, increased travel and global warming. Current preventative measures include mosquito control programs, yet due to the complex nature of the disease and the increased importation risk along with the lack of efficient prophylactic measures, successful disease control and elimination is not realistic in the foreseeable future. Epidemiological models attempt to predict future outbreaks using information on the risk factors of the disease. Through a systematic literature review, this paper aims at analyzing the different modeling methods and their outputs in terms of acting as an early warning system. We found that many previous studies have not sufficiently accounted for the spatio-temporal features of the disease in the modeling process. Yet with advances in technology, the ability to incorporate such information as well as the socio-environmental aspect allowed for its use as an early warning system, albeit limited geographically to a local scale. PMID:22629476

  12. GPS water level measurements for Indonesia's Tsunami Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schöne, T.; Pandoe, W.; Mudita, I.; Roemer, S.; Illigner, J.; Zech, C.; Galas, R.

    2011-03-01

    On Boxing Day 2004, a severe tsunami was generated by a strong earthquake in Northern Sumatra causing a large number of casualties. At this time, neither an offshore buoy network was in place to measure tsunami waves, nor a system to disseminate tsunami warnings to local governmental entities. Since then, buoys have been developed by Indonesia and Germany, complemented by NOAA's Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) buoys, and have been moored offshore Sumatra and Java. The suite of sensors for offshore tsunami detection in Indonesia has been advanced by adding GPS technology for water level measurements. The usage of GPS buoys in tsunami warning systems is a relatively new approach. The concept of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) (Rudloff et al., 2009) combines GPS technology and ocean bottom pressure (OBP) measurements. Especially for near-field installations where the seismic noise may deteriorate the OBP data, GPS-derived sea level heights provide additional information. The GPS buoy technology is precise enough to detect medium to large tsunamis of amplitudes larger than 10 cm. The analysis presented here suggests that for about 68% of the time, tsunamis larger than 5 cm may be detectable.

  13. The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Picozzi, M.

    2009-04-01

    The Self-Organizing Seismic Early Warning Information Network (SOSEWIN) represents a new approach for Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS), consisting in taking advantage of novel wireless communications technologies. It also sets out to overcome problems of insufficient node density, which typically affects present existing early warning systems, by having the SOSEWIN seismological sensing units being comprised of low-cost components (generally bought "off-the-shelf"), with each unit initially costing 100's of Euros, in contrast to 1,000's to 10,000's for standard seismological stations. The reduced sensitivity of the new sensing units arising from the use of lower-cost components will be compensated by the network's density, which in the future is expected to number 100's to 1000's over areas served currently by the order of 10's of standard stations. The robustness, independence of infrastructure, spontaneous extensibility and a self-healing/self-organizing character in the event of failing sensors during an earthquake makes SOSEWIN particularly useful for urban areas. Moreover, in the post-event time frame, negligible assumptions or interpolations would be necessary for assessing the strong ground shaking and earthquake intensities. In SOSEWIN, the ground motion is continuously monitored by conventional accelerometers (3-component) and geophones and analyzed using robust signal analysis methods by each sensing node of the network. The incoming signals are pre-processed by bandpass filtering and the detection processing is performed using an automatic STA/LTA trigger algorithm. Signal attributes are iteratively estimated from the P-wave part of the recordings (e.g. PGA, PGV, PGD, Arias Intensity and Cumulative Absolute Velocity) to determine if the earthquake is of sufficient magnitude to be of concern to issue a system alarm. Differently from most existing EEWS where the alarming system relies on estimates provided by only a few seismic stations, the SOSEWIN

  14. The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zschau, J.; Picozzi, M.; Milkereit, C.; Fleming, K.; Fischer, J.; Kuehnlenz, F.; Lichtblau, B.; Erdik, M.

    2008-12-01

    The Self-Organizing Seismic Early Warning Information Network (SOSEWIN) represents a new approach for Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS), consisting in taking advantage of novel wireless communications technologies. It also sets out to overcome problems of insufficient node density, which typically affects present existing early warning systems, by having the SOSEWIN seismological sensing units being comprised of low-cost components (generally bought "off-the-shelf"), with each unit initially costing 100's of Euros, in contrast to 1,000's to 10,000's for standard seismological stations. The reduced sensitivity of the new sensing units arising from the use of lower-cost components will be compensated by the network's density, which in the future is expected to number 100's to 1000's over areas served currently by the order of 10's of standard stations. The robustness, independence of infrastructure, spontaneous extensibility and a self-healing/self-organizing character in the event of failing sensors during an earthquake makes SOSEWIN particularly useful for urban areas. Moreover, in the post-event time frame, negligible assumptions or interpolations would be necessary for assessing the strong ground shaking and earthquake intensities. In SOSEWIN, the ground motion is continuously monitored by conventional accelerometers (3-component) and geophones and analyzed using robust signal analysis methods by each sensing node of the network. The incoming signals are pre-processed by bandpass filtering and the detection processing is performed using an automatic STA/LTA trigger algorithm. Signal attributes are iteratively estimated from the P-wave part of the recordings (e.g. PGAP, PGVP, PGDP, Arias Intensity and Cumulative Absolute Velocity) to determine if the earthquake is of sufficient magnitude to be of concern to issue a system alarm. Differently from most existing EEWS where the alarming system relies on estimates provided by only a few seismic stations, the

  15. The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network: Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kühnlenz, F.; Fischer, J.; Eveslage, I.

    2009-04-01

    SAFER and EDIM working groups, the Department of Computer Science, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany, and Section 2.1 Earthquake Risk and Early Warning, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Germany Contact: Frank Kühnlenz, kuehnlenz@informatik.hu-berlin.de The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network (SOSEWIN) represents a new approach for Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS), consisting in taking advantage of novel wireless communications technologies without the need of a planned, centralised infrastructure. It also sets out to overcome problems of insufficient node density, which typically affects present existing early warning systems, by having the SOSEWIN seismological sensing units being comprised of low-cost components (generally bought "off-the-shelf"), with each unit initially costing 100's of Euros, in contrast to 1,000's to 10,000's for standard seismological stations. The reduced sensitivity of the new sensing units arising from the use of lower-cost components will be compensated by the network's density, which in the future is expected to number 100's to 1000's over areas served currently by the order of 10's of standard stations. The robustness, independence of infrastructure, spontaneous extensibility due to a self-healing/self-organizing character in the case of removing/failing or adding sensors makes SOSEWIN potentially useful for various use cases, e.g. monitoring of building structures or seismic microzonation. Nevertheless its main purpose is the earthquake early warning, for which reason the ground motion is continuously monitored by conventional accelerometers (3-component). It uses SEEDLink to store and provide access to the sensor data. SOSEWIN considers also the needs of earthquake task forces, which want to set-up a temporary seismic network rapidly and with light-weighted stations to record after-shocks. The wireless and self-organising character of this sensor network should be of great value

  16. Generic tsunami scenarios for disasters and early warning preparedness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guillande, Richard; Gardi, Annalisa; Valencia, Nathalia; Salaün, Tugdual

    2010-05-01

    The implementation of the tsunami early warning systems in the NE Atlantic and Mediterranean regions will occur in countries with no preparedness and very little knowledge of potentially affected coastal zones by the various tsunami sources. The final link to coastal communities will be sirens to distribute in the concerned areas. The SCHEMA project aims at elaboration of a generic method to consider various parameters of a particular tsunami scenario. A scenario corresponds to a specific source with a given magnitude or intensity. Since we do not consider only the remote sources with possibilities of warning, local earthquake and submarine landslides are also translated in scenarios to allow the civil protections, municipalities and local stakeholders to assess cases with no real warning possibility, where life will be saved by self evacuation in nearby shelter areas or buildings. The specific temporal dimension of tsunami phenomenon is considered. Oceanic propagation time, expected duration of dangerous waves and wavelength are taken into account with their level of uncertainties. Scenarios are presented by maps and layouts with various information: inundation extension, submersion depth, receding sea limit, currents velocity or modulus of flow, modeled damage level to buildings, affected networks and lifelines. Variable dimensions such as residing or working population, by hour of the day and by season are also considered. Secondary vulnerability factors which may increase damage level to buildings are added (potentially floating objects which may turn into projectiles). The potential evacuation routes and obstacles are represented to support installation of warning networks and definition of shelters as well as evacuation routes. The scenarios are calculated using accurate digital bathymetric and topographic model with less than 10 m ground resolution allowing a very detailed mapping. This accuracy is especially important for scenarios with moderate waves for

  17. Synthetic testing of the Pacific Northwest earthquake early warning system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crowell, B. W.; Schmidt, D. A.; Bodin, P.; Vidale, J. E.; Gomberg, J. S.; Jamison, D.; Minson, S. E.; Hartog, J. R.; Kress, V. C.; Malone, S. D.; Usher, M.

    2014-12-01

    The Cascadia subduction zone poses one of the greatest risks for a megaquake in the continental United States and, because of this, the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network (PNSN) at the University of Washington is building a joint seismic and geodetic earthquake early warning system. Our two-stage approach to earthquake early warning includes: (1) detection and initial characterization using strong-motion and broadband data from the PNSN with the ElarmS package, and (2) geodetic modeling modules using GPS data from the Pacific Northwest Geodetic Array (PANGA) and combined seismogeodetic (GPS + strong-motion) data. Because of Cascadia's relatively low seismicity rate and the paucity of data from plate boundary earthquakes, we have prioritized the development of a test system and the creation of several large simulated events. The test system permits us to: (1) replay segments of actual seismic waveform data recorded from the PNSN and neighboring networks to represent both earthquakes and noise conditions, and (2) broadcast synthetic data into the system to simulate signals we anticipate from earthquakes for which we have no actual ground motion recordings. The test system lets us also simulate various error conditions (latent and/or out-of-sequence data, telemetry drop-outs, etc.) and to explore how best to mitigate them. Here, we report on the performance of the joint early warning system and the geodetic modeling modules in a simulated real-time mode using simulated 5-Hz displacements from plausible Cascadian earthquake scenarios. The simulations are created using the FK integration method for hypothetical source models for a wide array of possible faulting types and magnitudes. The results show that the geodetic modeling modules are able to properly characterize the simulated events, and we discuss the limitations with respect to latency, network architecture, and earthquake location throughout the Pacific Northwest.

  18. Study of Disseminating Landslide Early Warning Information in Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koay, Swee Peng; Lateh, Habibah; Tien Tay, Lea; Ahamd, Jamilah; Chan, Huah Yong; Sakai, Naoki; Jamaludin, Suhaimi

    2015-04-01

    In Malaysia, rain induced landslides are occurring more often than before. The Malaysian Government allocates millions of Malaysian Ringgit for slope monitoring and slope failure remedial measures in the budget every year. In rural areas, local authorities also play a major role in monitoring the slope to prevent casualty by giving information to the residents who are staying near to the slopes. However, there are thousands of slopes which are classified as high risk slopes in Malaysia. Implementing site monitoring system in these slopes to monitor the movement of the soil in the slopes, predicting the occurrence of slopes failure and establishing early warning system are too costly and almost impossible. In our study, we propose Accumulated Rainfall vs. Rainfall Intensity prediction method to predict the slope failure by referring to the predicted rainfall data from radar and the rain volume from rain gauges. The critical line which determines if the slope is in danger, is generated by simulator with well-surveyed the soil property in the slope and compared with historical data. By establishing such predicting system, the slope failure warning information can be obtained and disseminated to the surroundings via SMS, internet and siren. However, establishing the early warning dissemination system is not enough in disaster prevention, educating school children and the community by giving knowledge on landslides, such as landslide's definition, how and why does the slope failure happen and when will it fail, to raise the risk awareness on landslides will reduce landslides casualty, especially in rural area. Moreover, showing video on the risk and symptom of landslides in school will also help the school children gaining the knowledge of landslides. Generating hazard map and landslides historical data provides further information on the occurrence of the slope failure. In future, further study on fine tuning of landslides prediction method, applying IT technology to

  19. Debris flow early warning systems in Norway: organization and tools

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kleivane, I.; Colleuille, H.; Haugen, L. E.; Alve Glad, P.; Devoli, G.

    2012-04-01

    In Norway, shallow slides and debris flows occur as a combination of high-intensity precipitation, snowmelt, high groundwater level and saturated soil. Many events have occurred in the last decades and are often associated with (or related to) floods events, especially in the Southern of Norway, causing significant damages to roads, railway lines, buildings, and other infrastructures (i.e November 2000; August 2003; September 2005; November 2005; Mai 2008; June and Desember 2011). Since 1989 the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) has had an operational 24 hour flood forecasting system for the entire country. From 2009 NVE is also responsible to assist regions and municipalities in the prevention of disasters posed by landslides and snow avalanches. Besides assisting the municipalities through implementation of digital landslides inventories, susceptibility and hazard mapping, areal planning, preparation of guidelines, realization of mitigation measures and helping during emergencies, NVE is developing a regional scale debris flow warning system that use hydrological models that are already available in the flood warning systems. It is well known that the application of rainfall thresholds is not sufficient to evaluate the hazard for debris flows and shallow slides, and soil moisture conditions play a crucial role in the triggering conditions. The information on simulated soil and groundwater conditions and water supply (rain and snowmelt) based on weather forecast, have proved to be useful variables that indicate the potential occurrence of debris flows and shallow slides. Forecasts of runoff and freezing-thawing are also valuable information. The early warning system is using real-time measurements (Discharge; Groundwater level; Soil water content and soil temperature; Snow water equivalent; Meteorological data) and model simulations (a spatially distributed version of the HBV-model and an adapted version of 1-D soil water and energy balance

  20. Tehran dust storm early warning system: corrective measures.

    PubMed

    Moradian, Mohammad Javad; Rastegarfar, Behnaz; Rastegar, Mohammad Reza; Ardalan, Ali

    2015-01-01

    On June 2, 2014 a sandstorm hit Tehran, the capital city of Iran which killed 5 and injured 44 people. The early warning system did not operate properly and the alarm was not transferred to at risk population and the related organizations in time and in a right manner. Additionally, people who were exposed to the winds didn't know the appropriate safety measures. Focusing much more on establishing EWS to alert the risk prone population timely and public education for taking safety measures when exposed to the disastrous situation is recommended. PMID:25774324

  1. Tehran Dust Storm Early Warning System: Corrective Measures

    PubMed Central

    Moradian, Mohammad Javad; Rastegarfar, Behnaz; Rastegar, Mohammad reza; Ardalan, Ali

    2015-01-01

    On June 2, 2014 a sandstorm hit Tehran, the capital city of Iran which killed 5 and injured 44 people. The early warning system did not operate properly and the alarm was not transferred to at risk population and the related organizations in time and in a right manner. Additionally, people who were exposed to the winds didn't know the appropriate safety measures. Focusing much more on establishing EWS to alert the risk prone population timely and public education for taking safety measures when exposed to the disastrous situation is recommended. PMID:25774324

  2. Ozone generation by rock fracture: Earthquake early warning?

    SciTech Connect

    Baragiola, Raul A.; Dukes, Catherine A.; Hedges, Dawn

    2011-11-14

    We report the production of up to 10 ppm ozone during crushing and grinding of typical terrestrial crust rocks in air, O{sub 2} and CO{sub 2} at atmospheric pressure, but not in helium or nitrogen. Ozone is formed by exoelectrons emitted by high electric fields, resulting from charge separation during fracture. The results suggest that ground level ozone produced by rock fracture, besides its potential health hazard, can be used for early warning in earthquakes and other catastrophes, such as landslides or land shifts in excavation tunnels and underground mines.

  3. Flexible Early Warning Systems with Workflows and Decision Tables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Riedel, F.; Chaves, F.; Zeiner, H.

    2012-04-01

    An essential part of early warning systems and systems for crisis management are decision support systems that facilitate communication and collaboration. Often official policies specify how different organizations collaborate and what information is communicated to whom. For early warning systems it is crucial that information is exchanged dynamically in a timely manner and all participants get exactly the information they need to fulfil their role in the crisis management process. Information technology obviously lends itself to automate parts of the process. We have experienced however that in current operational systems the information logistics processes are hard-coded, even though they are subject to change. In addition, systems are tailored to the policies and requirements of a certain organization and changes can require major software refactoring. We seek to develop a system that can be deployed and adapted to multiple organizations with different dynamic runtime policies. A major requirement for such a system is that changes can be applied locally without affecting larger parts of the system. In addition to the flexibility regarding changes in policies and processes, the system needs to be able to evolve; when new information sources become available, it should be possible to integrate and use these in the decision process. In general, this kind of flexibility comes with a significant increase in complexity. This implies that only IT professionals can maintain a system that can be reconfigured and adapted; end-users are unable to utilise the provided flexibility. In the business world similar problems arise and previous work suggested using business process management systems (BPMS) or workflow management systems (WfMS) to guide and automate early warning processes or crisis management plans. However, the usability and flexibility of current WfMS are limited, because current notations and user interfaces are still not suitable for end-users, and workflows

  4. The extreme runoff index for flood early warning in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alfieri, L.; Pappenberger, F.; Wetterhall, F.

    2014-06-01

    Systems for the early detection of floods over continental and global domains have a key role in providing a quick overview of areas at risk, raise the awareness and prompt higher detail analyses as the events approach. However, the reliability of these systems is prone to spatial inhomogeneity, depending on the quality of the underlying input data and local calibration. This work proposes a simple approach for flood early warning based on ensemble numerical predictions of surface runoff provided by weather forecasting centers. The system is based on a novel indicator, referred to as an extreme runoff index (ERI), which is calculated from the input data through a statistical analysis. It is designed for use in large or poorly gauged domains, as no local knowledge or in situ observations are needed for its setup. Daily runs over 32 months are evaluated against calibrated hydrological simulations for all of Europe. Results show skillful flood early warning capabilities up to a 10-day lead time. A dedicated analysis is performed to investigate the optimal timing of forecasts to maximize the detection of extreme events. A case study for the central European floods of June 2013 is presented and forecasts are compared to the output of a hydro-meteorological ensemble model.

  5. Developing an Early Warning System for Machu Picchu Pueblo, Peru.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bulmer, Mark; Farquhar, Tony

    2010-05-01

    The town of Machu Picchu, Peru, is linked to Ollantaytambo and Cusco by rail and serves as the main station for the 400,000+ tourists visiting Machu Picchu. Due to the tourist industry the town grown threefold in population in the past two decades. Today, due to the limited availability of low-lying ground, construction is occurring higher up on the unstable valley slopes. The town is located at 2000 m asl while the surrounding peaks rise to over 4000 m asl. Slopes range from < 10° on the valley floor to > 70° in the surrounding granite mountains. The town has grown on the downstream right bank of the Vilcanota River, at the confluence of the Alcamayo and the Aguas Calientes Rivers. Broadly, a dry winter season runs from May to August with a rainy summer season running from October to March. The rainy months provide around 80% of the annual rainfall average, which ranges from 1,600 to 2,300 mm. Seasonal temperature variations are considered modest. An assessment of the geohazards in and around the town has been undertaken. Those of particular concern to the town are 1) large rocks falling onto the town and/or the rail line, 2) flash flooding by any one of its three rivers, and 3) mudflows and landslides. To improve the existing municipal warning system a prototype early warning system incorporating suitable technologies that could monitor weather, river flow and slope satability was installed along the Aguas Calientes River in 2009. This has a distributed modular construction allowing most components to be installed, maintained, swapped, salvaged, repaired and/or replaced by local technicians. A diverse set of candidate power, communication and sensor technologies was deployed and evaluated. Most of the candidate technologies had never been deployed in similar terrain, altitude or weather. The successful deployment of the prototype proved that it is technically feasible to develop early warning capacity in the town.

  6. Necessity of Flood Early Warning Systems in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kurian, C.; Natesan, U.; Durga Rao, K. H. V.

    2014-12-01

    India is one of the highly flood prone countries in the world. National flood commission has reported that 400,000 km² of geographical area is prone to floods, constituting to twelve percent of the country's geographical area. Despite the reoccurrences of floods, India still does not have a proper flood warning system. Probably this can be attributed to the lack of trained personnel in using advanced techniques. Frequent flood hazards results in damage to livelihood, infrastructure and public utilities. India has a potential to develop an early warning system since it is one of the few countries where satellite based inputs are regularly used for monitoring and mitigating floods. However, modeling of flood extent is difficult due to the complexity of hydraulic and hydrologic processes during flood events. It has been reported that numerical methods of simulations can be effectively used to simulate the processes correctly. Progress in computational resources, data collection and development of several numerical codes has enhanced the use of hydrodynamic modeling approaches to simulate the flood extent in the floodplains. In this study an attempt is made to simulate the flood in one of the sub basins of Godavari River in India using hydrodynamic modeling techniques. The modeling environment includes MIKE software, which simulates the water depth at every grid cell of the study area. The runoff contribution from the catchment was calculated using Nebdor Afstromnings model. With the hydrodynamic modeling approach, accuracy in discharge and water level computations are improved compared to the conventional methods. The results of the study are proming to develop effective flood management plans in the basin. Similar studies could be taken up in other flood prone areas of the country for continuous modernisation of flood forecasting techniques, early warning systems and strengthening decision support systems, which will help the policy makers in developing management

  7. ElarmS Earthquake Early Warning System Updates and Performance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chung, A. I.; Allen, R. M.; Hellweg, M.; Henson, I. H.; Neuhauser, D. S.

    2015-12-01

    The ElarmS earthquake early warning algorithm has been detecting earthquakes throughout California since 2007. It is one of the algorithms that contributes to CISN's ShakeAlert, a prototype earthquake early warning system being developed for California. Overall, ElarmS performance has been excellent. Over the past year (July 1, 2014 - July 1, 2015), ElarmS successfully detected all but three of the significant earthquakes (M4+) that occurred within California. Of the 24 events that were detected, the most notable was the M6.0 South Napa earthquake that occurred on August 24, 2014. The first alert for this event was sent in 5.1 seconds with an initial magnitude estimate of M5.7. This alert provided approximately 8 seconds of warning of the impending S-wave arrival to the city of San Francisco. The magnitude estimate increased to the final value of M6.0 within 15 seconds of the initial alert. One of the two events that were not detected by ElarmS occurred within 30 seconds of the M6.0 Napa mainshock. The two other missed events occurred offshore in a region with sparse station coverage in the Eureka area. Since its inception, ElarmS has evolved and adapted to meet new challenges. On May 30, 2015, an extraordinarily deep (678km) M7.8 teleseism in Japan generated 5 false event detections for earthquakes greater than M4 within a minute due to the simultaneous arrival of the P-waves at stations throughout California. In order to improve the speed and accuracy of the ElarmS detections, we are currently exploring new methodologies to quickly evaluate incoming triggers from individual stations. Rapidly determining whether or not a trigger at a given station is due to a local earthquake or some other source (such as a distant teleseism) could dramatically increase the confidence in individual triggers and reduce false alerts.

  8. Highlight on Supernova Early Warning at Daya Bay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, Hanyu

    Providing an early warning of supernova burst neutrinos is of importance in studying both supernova dynamics and neutrino physics. The Daya Bay Reactor Neutrino Experiment, with a unique feature of multiple liquid scintillator detectors, is sensitive to the full energy spectrum of supernova burst electron-antineutrinos. By utilizing 8 Antineutrino Detectors (ADs) in the three different experimental halls which are about 1 km's apart from each other, we obtain a powerful and prompt rejection of muon spallation background than single-detector experiments with the same target volume. A dedicated trigger system embedded in the data acquisition system has been installed to allow the detection of a coincidence of neutrino signals of all ADs via an inverse beta-decay (IBD) within a 10-second window, thus providing a robust early warning of a supernova occurrence within the Milky Way. An 8-AD associated supernova trigger table has been established theoretically to tabulate the 8-AD event counts' coincidence vs. the trigger rate. As a result, a golden trigger threshold, i.e. with a false alarm rate < 1/3-months, can be set as low as 6 candidates among the 8 detectors, leading to a 100% detection probability for all 1987A type supernova bursts at the distance to the Milky Way center and a 96% detection probability to those at the edge of the Milky Way.

  9. An Early Warning System for fluvial flooding in the Netherlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davids, Femke; Stam, Jasper; Sprokkereef, Eric; van Dijk, Marc

    2013-04-01

    Fluvial flooding is one of the major natural hazards in the modern world. In a densely populated area, such as The Netherlands, the possibility of flooding of the Rhine and Meuse poses a significant threat to society. There is a clear need for reliable and robust hydrological forecasting. The Water Management Centre for the Netherlands and Deltares have developed an early warning system that uses real-time data provided by a large number of European meteorological and hydrological gauging stations, weather forecasts from three different weather services, and rainfall-runoff and hydraulic models. Data assimilation techniques are used to update both model states and parameter outputs. In addition, a post processing method, quantile regression, is applied to hydrological ensemble output. This presentation will demonstrate the operational flood early warning system (based on Delft-FEWS) applied to these rivers. Recent challenges are, for example, the visualization of uncertainties on deterministic and probabilistic forecasts, the clear communication and visualization of the enormous amount of data available, and snow modelling.

  10. Early warning indicators for challenges in underground coal storage.

    PubMed

    Sipilä, Juha; Auerkari, Pertti; Holmström, Stefan; Vela, Iris

    2014-12-01

    Early warning or leading indicators are discussed for unexpected incidences in case of large-scale underground coal storage at a power plant. The experience is compared with above-ground stockpiles for which established procedures are available but where access for prevention and mitigation are much easier. It is suggested that while the explicit organization, procedures, and the general safety systems aim to provide the targeted levels of performance for the storage, representing new technology without much precedence elsewhere in the world, the extensive experience and tacit knowledge from above-ground open and closed storage systems can help to prepare for and to prevent unwanted incidents in the underground storage. This kind of experience has been also found useful for developing the leading or early warning indicators for underground storage. Examples are given on observed autoignition and freezing of coal in the storage silos, and on occupational hazards. Selection of the leading indicators needs to consider the specific features of the unique underground facility. PMID:25196594

  11. Assessing the performance of regional landslide early warning models: the EDuMaP method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calvello, M.; Piciullo, L.

    2016-01-01

    A schematic of the components of regional early warning systems for rainfall-induced landslides is herein proposed, based on a clear distinction between warning models and warning systems. According to this framework an early warning system comprises a warning model as well as a monitoring and warning strategy, a communication strategy and an emergency plan. The paper proposes the evaluation of regional landslide warning models by means of an original approach, called the "event, duration matrix, performance" (EDuMaP) method, comprising three successive steps: identification and analysis of the events, i.e., landslide events and warning events derived from available landslides and warnings databases; definition and computation of a duration matrix, whose elements report the time associated with the occurrence of landslide events in relation to the occurrence of warning events, in their respective classes; evaluation of the early warning model performance by means of performance criteria and indicators applied to the duration matrix. During the first step the analyst identifies and classifies the landslide and warning events, according to their spatial and temporal characteristics, by means of a number of model parameters. In the second step, the analyst computes a time-based duration matrix with a number of rows and columns equal to the number of classes defined for the warning and landslide events, respectively. In the third step, the analyst computes a series of model performance indicators derived from a set of performance criteria, which need to be defined by considering, once again, the features of the warning model. The applicability, potentialities and limitations of the EDuMaP method are tested and discussed using real landslides and warning data from the municipal early warning system operating in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil).

  12. The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kühnlenz, F.; Eveslage, I.; Fischer, J.; Fleming, K. M.; Lichtblau, B.; Milkereit, C.; Picozzi, M.

    2009-12-01

    The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network (SOSEWIN) represents a new approach for Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS), consisting in taking advantage of novel wireless communications technologies without the need of a planned, centralised infrastructure. It also sets out to overcome problems of insufficient node density, which typically affects present existing early warning systems, by having the SOSEWIN seismological sensing units being comprised of low-cost components (generally bought "off-the-shelf"), with each unit initially costing 100's of Euros, in contrast to 1,000's to 10,000's for standard seismological stations. The reduced sensitivity of the new sensing units arising from the use of lower-cost components will be compensated by the network's density, which in the future is expected to number 100's to 1000's over areas served currently by the order of 10's of standard stations. The robustness, independence of infrastructure, spontaneous extensibility due to a self-healing/self-organizing character in the case of removing/failing or adding sensors makes SOSEWIN potentially useful for various use cases, e.g. monitoring of building structures or seismic microzonation. Nevertheless its main purpose is the earthquake early warning, for which reason the ground motion is continuously monitored by conventional accelerometers (3-component) and processed within a station. Based on this, the network itself decides whether an event is detected through cooperating stations. SEEDLink is used to store and provide access to the sensor data. Experiences and selected experiment results with the SOSEWIN-prototype installation in the Ataköy district of Istanbul (Turkey) are presented. SOSEWIN considers also the needs of earthquake task forces, which want to set-up a temporary seismic network rapidly and with light-weighted stations to record after-shocks. The wireless and self-organising character of this sensor network is of great value to do this

  13. Earthquake early warning for Israel: Recommended implementation strategy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamiel, Yariv; Baer, Gidon; Allen, Richard; Clinton, John; Hofstetter, Rami; Pinsky, Vladimir; Ziv, Alon; Zollo, Aldo

    2013-04-01

    The Government of Israel has resolved on June 7, 2012 to build a nationwide Earthquake Early Warning System (EEWS). Towards this goal, the Israeli Earth and Marine Research Administration (EMRA) assembled an advisory committee, composed of international EEW experts and Israeli scientists. The proposed system is planned to provide earthquake warning to schools around the nation within 2 years of project commencement, and nationwide warning beyond a period of 3 years. The Israeli EEWS will be constructed as a seismic fence along the major fault systems, and will be integrated into the regional Israeli Seismic Network (ISN). The seismic equipment at the entire integrated network will be of similar standards. The recommended alarm approach for Israel will be hybrid: an S-wave based threshold alert will be merged with a P-wave based algorithm. The S-wave based threshold algorithm will alert when two or more seismic stations observe ground shaking above a pre-defined strong shaking level. The P-wave based algorithm uses waves which travel about twice as fast as S-waves to detect earthquakes, characterize the source magnitude and location, and then issue an alert based on predicted shaking. This approach allows for location specific alerts and regular testing through detection of smaller earthquakes, and will be useful for events occurring far from the known major faults. The proposed new seismic network to be installed is as follows: A total number of about 50 accelerometer-only sites will be deployed close to the Dead Sea and Carmel Faults in a single line of stations every ~10 km, south of the Dead Sea, and in a staggered geometry from the Dead Sea northward. Five additional sites with co-located seismometers and accelerometers should be deployed at large spacing along the Dead Sea Fault. The feasibility of the system is confirmed by travel-time calculations. The new seismic network will provide a significant amount of geophysical data that should be effectively mined

  14. Earthquake early warning for Romania - most recent improvements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marmureanu, Alexandru; Elia, Luca; Martino, Claudio; Colombelli, Simona; Zollo, Aldo; Cioflan, Carmen; Toader, Victorin; Marmureanu, Gheorghe; Marius Craiu, George; Ionescu, Constantin

    2014-05-01

    EWS for Vrancea earthquakes uses the time interval (28-32 sec.) between the moment when the earthquake is detected by the local seismic network installed in the epicenter area (Vrancea) and the arrival time of the seismic waves in the protected area (Bucharest) to send earthquake warning to users. In the last years, National Institute for Earth Physics (NIEP) upgraded its seismic network in order to cover better the seismic zones of Romania. Currently the National Institute for Earth Physics (NIEP) operates a real-time seismic network designed to monitor the seismic activity on the Romania territory, dominated by the Vrancea intermediate-depth (60-200 km) earthquakes. The NIEP real-time network consists of 102 stations and two seismic arrays equipped with different high quality digitizers (Kinemetrics K2, Quanterra Q330, Quanterra Q330HR, PS6-26, Basalt), broadband and short period seismometers (CMG3ESP, CMG40T, KS2000, KS54000, KS2000, CMG3T,STS2, SH-1, S13, Ranger, gs21, Mark l22) and acceleration sensors (Episensor). Recent improvement of the seismic network and real-time communication technologies allows implementation of a nation-wide EEWS for Vrancea and other seismic sources from Romania. We present a regional approach to Earthquake Early Warning for Romania earthquakes. The regional approach is based on PRESTo (Probabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem) software platform: PRESTo processes in real-time three channel acceleration data streams: once the P-waves arrival have been detected, it provides earthquake location and magnitude estimations, and peak ground motion predictions at target sites. PRESTo is currently implemented in real- time at National Institute for Earth Physics, Bucharest for several months in parallel with a secondary EEWS. The alert notification is issued only when both systems validate each other. Here we present the results obtained using offline earthquakes originating from Vrancea area together with several real

  15. Catastrophic collapse can occur without early warning: examples of silent catastrophes in structured ecological models.

    PubMed

    Boerlijst, Maarten C; Oudman, Thomas; de Roos, André M

    2013-01-01

    Catastrophic and sudden collapses of ecosystems are sometimes preceded by early warning signals that potentially could be used to predict and prevent a forthcoming catastrophe. Universality of these early warning signals has been proposed, but no formal proof has been provided. Here, we show that in relatively simple ecological models the most commonly used early warning signals for a catastrophic collapse can be silent. We underpin the mathematical reason for this phenomenon, which involves the direction of the eigenvectors of the system. Our results demonstrate that claims on the universality of early warning signals are not correct, and that catastrophic collapses can occur without prior warning. In order to correctly predict a collapse and determine whether early warning signals precede the collapse, detailed knowledge of the mathematical structure of the approaching bifurcation is necessary. Unfortunately, such knowledge is often only obtained after the collapse has already occurred. PMID:23593506

  16. Land Surface Modeling Applications for Famine Early Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McNally, A.; Verdin, J. P.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Arsenault, K. R.; Wang, S.; Kumar, S.; Shukla, S.; Funk, C. C.; Pervez, M. S.; Fall, G. M.; Karsten, L. R.

    2015-12-01

    AGU 2015 Fall Meeting Session ID#: 7598 Remote Sensing Applications for Water Resources Management Land Surface Modeling Applications for Famine Early Warning James Verdin, USGS EROS Christa Peters-Lidard, NASA GSFC Amy McNally, NASA GSFC, UMD/ESSIC Kristi Arsenault, NASA GSFC, SAIC Shugong Wang, NASA GSFC, SAIC Sujay Kumar, NASA GSFC, SAIC Shrad Shukla, UCSB Chris Funk, USGS EROS Greg Fall, NOAA Logan Karsten, NOAA, UCAR Famine early warning has traditionally required close monitoring of agro-climatological conditions, putting them in historical context, and projecting them forward to anticipate end-of-season outcomes. In recent years, it has become necessary to factor in the effects of a changing climate as well. There has also been a growing appreciation of the linkage between food security and water availability. In 2009, Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) science partners began developing land surface modeling (LSM) applications to address these needs. With support from the NASA Applied Sciences Program, an instance of the Land Information System (LIS) was developed to specifically support FEWS NET. A simple crop water balance model (GeoWRSI) traditionally used by FEWS NET took its place alongside the Noah land surface model and the latest version of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, and LIS data readers were developed for FEWS NET precipitation forcings (NOAA's RFE and USGS/UCSB's CHIRPS). The resulting system was successfully used to monitor and project soil moisture conditions in the Horn of Africa, foretelling poor crop outcomes in the OND 2013 and MAM 2014 seasons. In parallel, NOAA created another instance of LIS to monitor snow water resources in Afghanistan, which are an early indicator of water availability for irrigation and crop production. These successes have been followed by investment in LSM implementations to track and project water availability in Sub-Saharan Africa and Yemen, work that is now underway. Adoption of

  17. Potential for early warning of maalria in India using NOAA-AVHRR based vegetation health indices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dhiman, R. C.; Kogan, Felix; Singh, Neeru; Singh, R. P.; Dash, A. P.

    Malaria is still a major public health problem in India with about 1 82 million cases annually and 1000 deaths As per World Health Organization WHO estimates about 1 3 million Disability Adjusted Life Years DALYs are lost annually due to malaria in India Central peninsular region of India is prone to malaria outbreaks Meteorological parameters changes in ecological conditions development of resistance in mosquito vectors development of resistance in Plasmodium falciparum parasite and lack of surveillance are the likely reasons of outbreaks Based on satellite data and climatic factors efforts have been made to develop Early Warning System EWS in Africa but there is no headway in this regard in India In order to find out the potential of NOAA satellite AVHRR derived Vegetation Condition Index VCI Temperature Condition Index TCI and a cumulative indicator Vegetation Health Index VHI were attempted to find out their potential for development of EWS Studies were initiated by analysing epidemiological data of malaria vis-a-vis VCI TCI and VHI from Bikaner and Jaisalmer districts of Rajasthan and Tumkur and Raichur districts of Karnataka Correlation coefficients between VCI and monthly malaria cases for epidemic years were computed Positive correlation 0 67 has been found with one-month lag between VCI and malaria incidence in respect of Tumkur while a negative correlation with TCI -0 45 is observed In Bikaner VCI is found to be negatively related -0 71 with malaria cases in epidemic year of 1994 Weekly

  18. A tsunami early warning system for the coastal area modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Soebroto, Arief Andy; Sunaryo, Suhartanto, Ery

    2015-04-01

    The tsunami disaster is a potential disaster in the territory of Indonesia. Indonesia is an archipelago country and close to the ocean deep. The tsunami occurred in Aceh province in 2004. Early prevention efforts have been carried out. One of them is making "tsunami buoy" which has been developed by BPPT. The tool puts sensors on the ocean floor near the coast to detect earthquakes on the ocean floor. Detection results are transmitted via satellite by a transmitter placed floating on the sea surface. The tool will cost billions of dollars for each system. Another constraint was the transmitter theft "tsunami buoy" in the absence of guard. In this study of the system has a transmission system using radio frequency and focused on coastal areas where costs are cheaper, so that it can be applied at many beaches in Indonesia are potentially affected by the tsunami. The monitoring system sends the detection results to the warning system using a radio frequency with a capability within 3 Km. Test results on the sub module sensor monitoring system generates an error of 0.63% was taken 10% showed a good quality sensing. The test results of data transmission from the transceiver of monitoring system to the receiver of warning system produces 100% successful delivery and reception of data. The test results on the whole system to function 100% properly.

  19. Early warning of changing drinking water quality by trend analysis.

    PubMed

    Tomperi, Jani; Juuso, Esko; Leiviskä, Kauko

    2016-06-01

    Monitoring and control of water treatment plants play an essential role in ensuring high quality drinking water and avoiding health-related problems or economic losses. The most common quality variables, which can be used also for assessing the efficiency of the water treatment process, are turbidity and residual levels of coagulation and disinfection chemicals. In the present study, the trend indices are developed from scaled measurements to detect warning signs of changes in the quality variables of drinking water and some operating condition variables that strongly affect water quality. The scaling is based on monotonically increasing nonlinear functions, which are generated with generalized norms and moments. Triangular episodes are classified with the trend index and its derivative. Deviation indices are used to assess the severity of situations. The study shows the potential of the described trend analysis as a predictive monitoring tool, as it provides an advantage over the traditional manual inspection of variables by detecting changes in water quality and giving early warnings. PMID:27280609

  20. The Earthquake Closet: Making Early-Warning Useful

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wyss, M.; Trendafiloski, G.

    2009-12-01

    Early-warning of approaching strong shaking that could have fatal consequences is a research field that has made great progress. It makes it possible to reduce the impact on dangerous processes in critical facilities and on trains. However, its potential to save lives has a serious Achilles heel: The time for getting to safety is five to 10 seconds only, in many cities. Occupants of upper floors cannot get out of their buildings and narrow streets are not a safe place in strong earthquakes for people who might be able to exit. Thus, only about 10% of a city’s population can benefit from early-warnings, unless they have access to their own earthquake closet that is strong enough to remain intact in a collapsing building. Such an Earthquake Protection Unit (EPU) may be installed in the structurally strongest part of an existing apartment at low cost. In new constructions, we propose that an earthquake shelter be constructed for each floor, large enough to accommodate all occupants of that floor. These types of EPU should be constructed on top of each other, forming a strong tower, next to the elevator shaft and the staircase, at the center of the building. If an EPU with structural properties equivalent to an E-class building is placed into a building of B-class in South America, for example, we estimate that the chances of surviving shaking of intensity VII is about 30,000 times better inside the closet. The probability of escaping injury inside compared to outside we estimate as about 1,500 times better. Educating the population regarding the usefulness of EPUs will be essential, and P-waves can be used as the early warning signal. The owner of an earthquake closet can easily be motivated to take protective measures, when these involve simply to step into his closet, rather than attempting to exit from the building by running down many flights of stairs. Our intention is to start a discussion how best to construct EPUs and how to introduce legislation that will

  1. Vulnerability analysis for a drought Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Angeluccetti, Irene; Demarchi, Alessandro; Perez, Francesca

    2014-05-01

    Early Warning Systems (EWS) for drought are often based on risk models that do not, or marginally, take into account the vulnerability factor. The multifaceted nature of drought (hydrological, meteorological, and agricultural) is source of coexistence for different ways to measure this phenomenon and its effects. The latter, together with the complexity of impacts generated by this hazard, causes the current underdevelopment of drought EWS compared to other hazards. In Least Developed Countries, where drought events causes the highest numbers of affected people, the importance of correct monitoring and forecasting is considered essential. Existing early warning and monitoring systems for drought produced at different geographic levels, provide only in a few cases an actual spatial model that tries to describe the cause-effect link between where the hazard is detected and where impacts occur. Integrate vulnerability information in such systems would permit to better estimate affected zones and livelihoods, improving the effectiveness of produced hazard-related datasets and maps. In fact, the need of simplification and, in general, of a direct applicability of scientific outputs is still a matter of concern for field experts and early warning products end-users. Even if the surplus of hazard related information produced right after catastrophic events has, in some cases, led to the creation of specific data-sharing platforms, the conveyed meaning and usefulness of each product has not yet been addressed. The present work is an attempt to fill this gap which is still an open issue for the scientific community as well as for the humanitarian aid world. The study aims at conceiving a simplified vulnerability model to embed into an existing EWS for drought, which is based on the monitoring of vegetation phenological parameters and the Standardized Precipitation Index, both produced using free satellite derived datasets. The proposed vulnerability model includes (i) a

  2. Integrative landslide early warning systems within the ILEWS project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thiebes, B.

    2009-04-01

    This poster provides a brief overview on the ILEWS project (Integrative Landslide Early Warning Systems) which aims to develop and implement modular and transferable landslide early warning systems for local and regional scales. Experts from different backgrounds are involved in the project including natural and social scientists. The projects' methodological architecture spans from field installations of novel sensor combinations and near-real time landslide modelling to action advises in correlation to actual needs of the end-user. The project consists of three clusters: Monitoring, Modelling and Implementation. The cluster Monitoring is concerned with the measurement of landslide controlling factors and the landslide movement itself. These key factors include meteorology, soil moisture conditions, surface and sub-surface movement rates. Historical data is included to gain a better understanding of frequency-magnitude correlations of past events. The cluster Modelling applies and combines three early-warning systems on the local scale. A physical-based calculation of slope stability is carried out with a WebGIS application of CHASM (Combined Hydrology And Stability Model). Movement characteristics are analysed using the progressive failure method. Further on a statistical analysis of all measured data is used to define critical thresholds initiating landslide movement. Regional analyses are based on rainfall thresholds regarding the antecedent soil-water status. The cluster Implementation defines protection goals and damage potentials. Alternative risk management strategies and possible outcomes are identified and communicated with the end-users involved. First results show that local authorities are not interested in precise information about current situation. They simply need brief information (e.g. a flashing red light) if the the situation is critical. These findings are the basis for further steps in the clusters Monitoring and Modelling. The slope under

  3. On the importance of risk knowledge for an end-to-end tsunami early warning system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Post, Joachim; Strunz, Günter; Riedlinger, Torsten; Mück, Matthias; Wegscheider, Stephanie; Zosseder, Kai; Steinmetz, Tilmann; Gebert, Niklas; Anwar, Herryal

    2010-05-01

    Warning systems commonly use information provided by networks of sensors able to monitor and detect impending disasters, aggregate and condense these information to provide reliable information to a decision maker whether to warn or not, disseminates the warning message and provide this information to people at risk. Ultimate aim is to enable those in danger to make decisions (e.g. initiate protective actions for buildings) and to take action to safe their lives. This involves very complex issues when considering all four elements of early warning systems (UNISDR-PPEW), namely (1) risk knowledge, (2) monitoring and warning service, (3) dissemination and communication, (4) response capability with the ultimate aim to gain as much time as possible to empower individuals and communities to act in an appropriate manner to reduce injury, loss of life, damage to property and the environment and loss of livelihoods. Commonly most warning systems feature strengths and main attention on the technical/structural dimension (monitoring & warning service, dissemination tools) with weaknesses and less attention on social/cultural dimension (e.g. human response capabilities, defined warning chain to and knowing what to do by the people). Also, the use of risk knowledge in early warning most often is treated in a theoretical manner (knowing that it is somehow important), yet less in an operational, practical sense. Risk assessments and risk maps help to motivate people, prioritise early warning system needs and guide preparations for response and disaster prevention activities. Beyond this risk knowledge can be seen as a tie between national level early warning and community level reaction schemes. This presentation focuses on results, key findings and lessons-learnt related to tsunami risk assessment in the context of early warning within the GITEWS (German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning) project. Here a novel methodology reflecting risk information needs in the early warning

  4. Towards Early Warning Systems - Challenges, Technologies and Architecture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Apel, Martin; Biskup, Joachim; Flegel, Ulrich; Meier, Michael

    We present the architecture of an automatic early warning system (EWS) that aims at providing predictions and advice regarding security threats in information and communication technology without incorporation of cognitive abilities of humans and forms the basis for drawing a situation picture. Our EWS particularly targets the growing malware threat and shall achieve the required capabilities by combining malware collectors, malware analysis systems, malware behavior clustering, signature generation and distribution and malware/misuse detection system into an integrated process chain. The quality and timeliness of the results delivered by the EWS are influenced by the number and location of participating partners that share information on security incidents. In order to enable such a cooperation and an effective deployment of the EWS, interests and confidentiality requirements of the parties involved need to be carefully examined. We discuss technical details of the EWS components, evaluate alternatives and examine the interests of all parties involved in the anticipated deployment scenario.

  5. Comparison of three acute care pediatric early warning scoring tools.

    PubMed

    Robson, Mary-Ann J; Cooper, Carole L; Medicus, Lori A; Quintero, Mary J; Zuniga, Stephen A

    2013-01-01

    Pediatric Early Warning (PEW) scoring tools effectively identify hospitalized children at risk for clinical deterioration. The study compared the predictability of three previously validated PEW scoring tools. A retrospective case-control design was used that identified the PEW System Score (H. Duncan, J. Hutchison, & C. Parshuram, 2006) as a stronger predictor of cardiopulmonary arrest (CPA) than either the PEW Tool (C. Haines, M. Perrott, & P. Weir, 2006) or the Bedside PEW System Score (C. Parshuram, J. Hutchison, & K. Middaugh, 2009). The PEW System Score (H. Duncan, J. Hutchison, & C. Parshuram, 2006) demonstrated a greater sensitivity (86.6%) and specificity (72.9%) at a score of five. The PEW System Score (H. Duncan, J. Hutchison, & C. Parshuram, 2006) could benefit healthcare providers in potentially averting CPA. PMID:23276507

  6. An early warning system for overcrowding in the emergency department.

    PubMed

    Hoot, Nathan; Aronsky, Dominik

    2006-01-01

    Overcrowding of emergency departments impedes health care access and quality nationwide. A real-time early warning system for overcrowding may allow administrators to alleviate the problem before reaching a crisis state. Two original probabilistic models - a logistic regression and a recurrent neural network - were created to predict overcrowding crises one hour in the future. The two original and two pre-existing models were validated at 8,496 observation points from January 1, 2006 to February 28, 2006. All models showed high discriminatory ability in terms of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (logistic regression = .954; recurrent neural network = .957; EDWIN = .879; NEDOCS = .924). At comparable rates of false alarms, the logistic regression gave more advance notice of crises than other models (logistic regression = 62 min; recurrent neural network = 13 min; EDWIN = 0 min; NEDOCS = 0 min). These results demonstrate the feasibility of using models based on key operational variables to anticipate overcrowding crises in real time. PMID:17238359

  7. Hybrid Intrusion Forecasting Framework for Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Sehun; Shin, Seong-Jun; Kim, Hyunwoo; Kwon, Ki Hoon; Han, Younggoo

    Recently, cyber attacks have become a serious hindrance to the stability of Internet. These attacks exploit interconnectivity of networks, propagate in an instant, and have become more sophisticated and evolutionary. Traditional Internet security systems such as firewalls, IDS and IPS are limited in terms of detecting recent cyber attacks in advance as these systems respond to Internet attacks only after the attacks inflict serious damage. In this paper, we propose a hybrid intrusion forecasting system framework for an early warning system. The proposed system utilizes three types of forecasting methods: time-series analysis, probabilistic modeling, and data mining method. By combining these methods, it is possible to take advantage of the forecasting technique of each while overcoming their drawbacks. Experimental results show that the hybrid intrusion forecasting method outperforms each of three forecasting methods.

  8. Early Warning System: a juridical notion to be built

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lucarelli, A.

    2007-12-01

    Early warning systems (EWS) are becoming effective tools for real time mitigation of the harmful effects arising from widely different hazards, which range from famine to financial crisis, malicious attacks, industrial accidents, natural catastrophes, etc. Early warning of natural catastrophic events allows to implement both alert systems and real time prevention actions for the safety of people and goods exposed to the risk However the effective implementation of early warning methods is hindered by the lack of a specific juridical frame. Under a juridical point of view, in fact, EWS and in general all the activities of prevention need a careful regulation, mainly with regards to responsibility and possible compensation for damage caused by the implemented actions. A preventive alarm, in fact, has an active influence on infrastructures in control of public services which in turn will suffer suspensions or interruptions because of the early warning actions. From here it is necessary to possess accurate normative references related to the typology of structures or infrastructures upon which the activity of readiness acts; the progressive order of suspension of public services; the duration of these suspensions; the corporate bodies or administrations that are competent to assume such decisions; the actors responsible for the consequences of false alarm, missed or delayed alarms; the mechanisms of compensation for damage; the insurance systems; etc In the European Union EWS are often quoted as preventive methods of mitigation of the risk. Nevertheless, a juridical notion of EWS of general use is not available. In fact, EW is a concept that finds application in many different circles, each of which require specific adaptations, and may concern subjects for which the European Union doesn't have exclusive competence as may be the responsibility of the member states to assign the necessary regulations. In so far as the juridical arrangement of the EWS, this must be

  9. Geological hazards: from early warning systems to public health toolkits.

    PubMed

    Samarasundera, Edgar; Hansell, Anna; Leibovici, Didier; Horwell, Claire J; Anand, Suchith; Oppenheimer, Clive

    2014-11-01

    Extreme geological events, such as earthquakes, are a significant global concern and sometimes their consequences can be devastating. Geographic information plays a critical role in health protection regarding hazards, and there are a range of initiatives using geographic information to communicate risk as well as to support early warning systems operated by geologists. Nevertheless we consider there to remain shortfalls in translating information on extreme geological events into health protection tools, and suggest that social scientists have an important role to play in aiding the development of a new generation of toolkits aimed at public health practitioners. This viewpoint piece reviews the state of the art in this domain and proposes potential contributions different stakeholder groups, including social scientists, could bring to the development of new toolkits. PMID:25255167

  10. Early-warning signals of topological collapse in interbank networks.

    PubMed

    Squartini, Tiziano; van Lelyveld, Iman; Garlaschelli, Diego

    2013-01-01

    The financial crisis clearly illustrated the importance of characterizing the level of 'systemic' risk associated with an entire credit network, rather than with single institutions. However, the interplay between financial distress and topological changes is still poorly understood. Here we analyze the quarterly interbank exposures among Dutch banks over the period 1998-2008, ending with the crisis. After controlling for the link density, many topological properties display an abrupt change in 2008, providing a clear - but unpredictable - signature of the crisis. By contrast, if the heterogeneity of banks' connectivity is controlled for, the same properties show a gradual transition to the crisis, starting in 2005 and preceded by an even earlier period during which anomalous debt loops could have led to the underestimation of counter-party risk. These early-warning signals are undetectable if the network is reconstructed from partial bank-specific data, as routinely done. We discuss important implications for bank regulatory policies. PMID:24285089

  11. A Real-Time Advisory System For Airborne Early Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirk, D. B.; Cromwell, M. E.; Donnell, M. L.; Barrett, C. L.

    1987-05-01

    Decision speed and quality can be greatly enhanced by the use of decision augmentation software to assist operators in information analysis and tactical problem solving, dynamic resource allocation, and in determining strategies which optimize overall system performance. One example of such software is the real-time advisory system (RTAS) being constructed to assist in tactical decision-making for airborne early warning (AEW) aircraft, particularly the carrier-based Navy E-2C. Using a vector logic approach, the current AEW RTAS is a real-time backward chaining expert system which provides advice for both threat interception and refueling in the complex Outer Air Battle Scenario. This paper describes the current system, discusses a number of design issues for such a system, and describes ongoing modifications to the current AEW RTAS using SAIC's frame-based knowledge repre-sentation language (KRL).

  12. Early-warning signals of topological collapse in interbank networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Squartini, Tiziano; van Lelyveld, Iman; Garlaschelli, Diego

    2013-11-01

    The financial crisis clearly illustrated the importance of characterizing the level of `systemic' risk associated with an entire credit network, rather than with single institutions. However, the interplay between financial distress and topological changes is still poorly understood. Here we analyze the quarterly interbank exposures among Dutch banks over the period 1998-2008, ending with the crisis. After controlling for the link density, many topological properties display an abrupt change in 2008, providing a clear - but unpredictable - signature of the crisis. By contrast, if the heterogeneity of banks' connectivity is controlled for, the same properties show a gradual transition to the crisis, starting in 2005 and preceded by an even earlier period during which anomalous debt loops could have led to the underestimation of counter-party risk. These early-warning signals are undetectable if the network is reconstructed from partial bank-specific data, as routinely done. We discuss important implications for bank regulatory policies.

  13. Quantifying the effectiveness of early warning systems for natural hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sättele, M.; Bründl, M.; Straub, D.

    2015-07-01

    Early warning systems (EWS) are increasingly applied as preventive measures within an integrated risk management approach for natural hazards. At present, common standards and detailed guidelines for the evaluation of their effectiveness are lacking. To support decision-makers in the identification of optimal risk mitigation measures, a three-step framework approach for the evaluation of EWS is presented. The effectiveness is calculated in function of the technical and the inherent reliability of the EWS. The framework is applicable to automated and non-automated EWS and combinations thereof. To address the specifics and needs of a wide variety of EWS designs, a classification of EWS is provided, which focuses on the degree of automations encountered in varying EWS. The framework and its implementation are illustrated through a series of example applications of EWS in an alpine environment.

  14. Quantifying the effectiveness of early warning systems for natural hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sättele, M.; Bründl, M.; Straub, D.

    2016-01-01

    Early warning systems (EWSs) are increasingly applied as preventive measures within an integrated risk management approach for natural hazards. At present, common standards and detailed guidelines for the evaluation of their effectiveness are lacking. To support decision-makers in the identification of optimal risk mitigation measures, a three-step framework approach for the evaluation of EWSs is presented. The effectiveness is calculated in function of the technical and the inherent reliability of the EWS. The framework is applicable to automated and non-automated EWSs and combinations thereof. To address the specifics and needs of a wide variety of EWS designs, a classification of EWSs is provided, which focuses on the degree of automations encountered in varying EWSs. The framework and its implementation are illustrated through a series of example applications of EWS in an alpine environment.

  15. An Imbalanced Learning based MDR-TB Early Warning System.

    PubMed

    Li, Sheng; Tang, Bo; He, Haibo

    2016-07-01

    As a man-made disease, multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is mainly caused by improper treatment programs and poor patient supervision, most of which could be prevented. According to the daily treatment and inspection records of tuberculosis (TB) cases, this study focuses on establishing a warning system which could early evaluate the risk of TB patients converting to MDR-TB using machine learning methods. Different imbalanced sampling strategies and classification methods were compared due to the disparity between the number of TB cases and MDR-TB cases in historical data. The final results show that the relative optimal predictions results can be obtained by adopting CART-USBagg classification model in the first 90 days of half of a standardized treatment process. PMID:27209184

  16. Assessing the performance of regional landslide early warning models: the EDuMaP method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calvello, M.; Piciullo, L.

    2015-10-01

    The paper proposes the evaluation of the technical performance of a regional landslide early warning system by means of an original approach, called EDuMaP method, comprising three successive steps: identification and analysis of the Events (E), i.e. landslide events and warning events derived from available landslides and warnings databases; definition and computation of a Duration Matrix (DuMa), whose elements report the time associated with the occurrence of landslide events in relation to the occurrence of warning events, in their respective classes; evaluation of the early warning model Performance (P) by means of performance criteria and indicators applied to the duration matrix. During the first step, the analyst takes into account the features of the warning model by means of ten input parameters, which are used to identify and classify landslide and warning events according to their spatial and temporal characteristics. In the second step, the analyst computes a time-based duration matrix having a number of rows and columns equal to the number of classes defined for the warning and landslide events, respectively. In the third step, the analyst computes a series of model performance indicators derived from a set of performance criteria, which need to be defined by considering, once again, the features of the warning model. The proposed method is based on a framework clearly distinguishing between local and regional landslide early warning systems as well as among correlation laws, warning models and warning systems. The applicability, potentialities and limitations of the EDuMaP method are tested and discussed using real landslides and warnings data from the municipal early warning system operating in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil).

  17. Landslide Geohazard Monitoring, Early Warning and Stabilization Control Methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bednarczyk, Zbigniew

    2014-03-01

    This paper is a presentation of landslide monitoring, early warning and remediation methods recommended for the Polish Carpathians. Instrumentation included standard and automatic on-line measurements with the real-time transfer of data to an Internet web server. The research was funded through EU Innovative Economy Programme and also by the SOPO Landslide Counteraction Project. The landslides investigated were characterized by relatively low rates of the displacements. These ranged from a few millimetres to several centimetres per year. Colluviums of clayey flysch deposits were of a soil-rock type with a very high plasticity and moisture content. The instrumentation consisted of 23 standard inclinometers set to depths of 5-21 m. The starting point of monitoring measurements was in January 2006. These were performed every 1-2 months over the period of 8 years. The measurements taken detected displacements from several millimetres to 40 cm set at a depth of 1-17 m. The modern, on-line monitoring and early warning system was installed in May 2010. The system is the first of its kind in Poland and only one of several such real-time systems in the world. The installation was working with the Local Road Authority in Gorlice. It contained three automatic field stations for investigation of landslide parameters to depths of 12-16 m and weather station. In-place tilt transducers and innovative 3D continuous inclinometer systems with sensors located every 0.5 m were used. It has the possibility of measuring a much greater range of movements compared to standard systems. The conventional and real-time data obtained provided a better recognition of the triggering parameters and the control of geohazard stabilizations. The monitoring methods chosen supplemented by numerical modelling could lead to more reliable forecasting of such landslides and could thus provide better control and landslide remediation possibilities also to stabilization works which prevent landslides.

  18. Malaria stratification, climate, and epidemic early warning in Eritrea.

    PubMed

    Ceccato, Pietro; Ghebremeskel, Tewolde; Jaiteh, Malanding; Graves, Patricia M; Levy, Marc; Ghebreselassie, Shashu; Ogbamariam, Andom; Barnston, Anthony G; Bell, Michael; del Corral, John; Connor, Stephen J; Fesseha, Issac; Brantly, Eugene P; Thomson, Madeleine C

    2007-12-01

    Eritrea has a successful malaria control program, but it is still susceptible to devastating malaria epidemics. Monthly data on clinical malaria cases from 242 health facilities in 58 subzobas (districts) of Eritrea from 1996 to 2003 were used in a novel stratification process using principal component analysis and nonhierarchical clustering to define five areas with distinct malaria intensity and seasonality patterns, to guide future interventions and development of an epidemic early warning system. Relationships between monthly clinical malaria incidence by subzoba and monthly climate data from several sources, and with seasonal climate forecasts, were investigated. Remotely sensed climate data were averaged over the same subzoba geographic administrative units as the malaria cases. Although correlation was good between malaria anomalies and actual rainfall from ground stations (lagged by 2 months), the stations did not have sufficiently even coverage to be widely useful. Satellite derived rainfall from the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation was correlated with malaria incidence anomalies, with a lead time of 2-3 months. NDVI anomalies were highly correlated with malaria incidence anomalies, particularly in the semi-arid north of the country and along the northern Red Sea coast, which is a highly epidemic-prone area. Eritrea has 2 distinct rainy seasons in different parts of the country. The seasonal forecasting skill from Global Circulation Models for the June/July/August season was low except for the Eastern border. For the coastal October/November/December season, forecasting skill was good only during the 1997-1998 El Niño event. For epidemic control, shorter-range warning based on remotely sensed rainfall estimates and an enhanced epidemic early-detection system based on data derived for this study are needed. PMID:18165476

  19. An Envelope-Based Paradigm for Seismic Early Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cua, G. B.; Heaton, T. H.

    2003-12-01

    We present a waveform envelope-based paradigm for seismic early warning. As suggested by theoretical scaling relations and as observed from data, acceleration saturates with increasing magnitude at a faster rate than does velocity or displacement. Thus, ratios of velocity or displacement to acceleration should be indicative of the magnitude of an earthquake. We introduce an evenlope-based parameterization of ground motion, where the observed ground motion envelope is decomposed into independent P-wave, S-wave, and ambient noise envelopes. The body wave envelopes, in turn, are parameterized by a rise time, an amplitude, a duration, and two decay parameters. We apply this parameterization to a database of over 30,000 records of horizontal and vertical acceleration, velocity, and displacement recorded on digital Southern California Seismic Network stations within 200 km of 80 regional events ranging in magnitude from M2.0 to M7.3. We derive attenuation relationships that account for magnitude-dependent saturation for vertical and horizontal acceleration, velocity, and displacement for P- and S-wave amplitudes, obtain station corrections relative to the mean hard rock response, and use these relationships to examine trends with magnitude and distance of ratios of different components of ground motion. An important consequence of our parameterization is the insight it provides into P-wave characteristics. We find that various ratios of P-wave velocity and displacement to acceleration are indicative of magnitude, and may have potential as another quick method to estimate magnitude for seismic early warning.

  20. Early warning signals of desertification transitions in semiarid ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Corrado, Raffaele; Cherubini, Anna Maria; Pennetta, Cecilia

    2014-12-01

    The identification of early warning signals for regime shifts in ecosystems is of crucial importance given their impact in terms of economic and social effects. We present here the results of a theoretical study on the desertification transition in semiarid ecosystems under external stress. We performed numerical simulations based on a stochastic cellular automaton model, and we studied the dynamics of the vegetation clusters in terms of percolation theory, assumed as an effective tool for analyzing the geometrical properties of the clusters. Focusing on the role played by the strength of external stresses, measured by the mortality rate m , we followed the progressive degradation of the ecosystem for increasing m , identifying different stages: first, the fragmentation transition occurring at relatively low values of m , then the desertification transition at higher mortality rates, and finally the full desertification transition corresponding to the extinction of the vegetation and the almost complete degradation of the soil, attained at the maximum value of m . For each transition we calculated the spanning probabilities as functions of m and the percolation thresholds according to different spanning criteria. The identification of the different thresholds is proposed as an useful tool for monitoring the increasing degradation of real-world finite-size systems. Moreover, we studied the time fluctuations of the sizes of the biggest clusters of vegetated and nonvegetated cells over the entire range of mortality values. The change of sign in the skewness of the size distributions, occurring at the fragmentation threshold for the biggest vegetation cluster and at the desertification threshold for the nonvegetated cluster, offers new early warning signals for desertification. Other new and robust indicators are given by the maxima of the root-mean-square deviation of the distributions, which are attained respectively inside the fragmentation interval, for the

  1. Hazardous thunderstorms over Lake Victoria: climate change and early warnings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thiery, Wim; Davin, Edouard L.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Bedka, Kristopher; Lhermitte, Stef; van Lipzig, Nicole

    2016-04-01

    Severe thunderstorms and associated high waves represent a constant threat to the 200,000 fishermen operating on Lake Victoria. According to the International Red Cross, presumably 3000 to 5000 fishermen die every year on the lake, thereby substantially contributing to the global death toll from natural disasters. Despite the long-known bad reputation of Lake Victoria, operational early warning systems are lacking and possible future changes of these extreme thunderstorms are unknown. Here we present the first dedicated high-resolution, coupled lake-land-atmosphere climate projection for the African Great Lakes region and analyse it in combination with new satellite data and coarser-scale ensemble projections. Our model projections for the end-of-the-century indicate that Lake Victoria amplifies the future intensification of extreme precipitation seen over the surrounding land. Under a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5), the 1% most extreme over-lake precipitation may intensify up to four times faster compared to surrounding land. Our findings are consistent with an ensemble of coarser-scale climate projections for Africa, but the lower skill of the ensemble over Lake Victoria constrains its applicability. Interestingly, the change in extremes contrasts to the change in average over-lake precipitation, which is projected to decrease by -6% for the same period. By further analyzing the high-resolution output we are able to explain this different response: while mesoscale circulation changes cause the average precipitation decline, the response of extremes is essentially thermodynamic. Finally, the study of the satellite-based detection of severe thunderstorms revealed a strong dependency of the nighttime storm intensity over Lake Victoria on the antecedent daytime land storm activity. This highlights the potential of this new satellite product for predicting intense storms over Lake Victoria. Overall, our results indicate a new major hazard associated with climate

  2. Acquiring Comprehensive Observations using an Integrated Sensorweb for Early Warning

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Habib, Shahid; Ambrose, Steve

    2006-01-01

    As an integrated observing strategy, the concept of sensorweb for Earth observations is appealing in many aspects. For instance, by increasing the spatial and temporal coverage of observations from space and other vantage points, one can eventually aid in increasing the accuracy of the atmospheric models which are precursor to hurricane track prediction, volcanic eruption forecast, and trajectory path of transcontinental transport of dust, harmful nuclear and chemical plumes. In reality, there is little analysis'available in terms of benefits, costs and optimized set of sensors needed to make these necessary observations. This is a complex problem that must be carefully studied and balanced over many boundaries such as science, defense, early warning security, and surveillance. Simplistically, the sensorweb concept from the technological point of view alone has a great appeal in the defense, early warning and security applications. In fact, it can be relatively less expensive in per unit cost as opposed to building and deploying it for the scientific use. However, overall observing approach should not be singled out and aligned somewhat . orthogonally to serve a particular need. On the other hand, the sensorweb should be designed and deployed to serve multiple subject areas and customers simultaneously; and can behave as directed measuring systems for both science and operational entities. Sensorweb can be designed to act as expert systems, and/or also provide a dedicated integrated surveillance network. Today, there is no system in the world that is fully integrated in terms of reporting timely multiple hazards warnings, computing the lass of life and property damage estimates, and is also designed to cater to everyone's needs. It is not an easier problem to undertake and more so is not practically solvable. At this time due to some recent events in the world, the scientific community, social scientists, and operational agencies are more cognizant and getting

  3. Acquiring Comprehensive Observations using an integrated Sensorweb for Early Warning

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Habib, Shahid; Ambrose, Steve

    2006-01-01

    As an integrated observing strategy, the concept of sensorweb for Earth observations is appealing in many aspects. For instance, by increasing the spatial and temporal coverage of observations from space and other vantage points, one can eventually aid in increasing the accuracy of the atmospheric models which are precursor to hurricane track prediction, volcanic eruption forecast, and trajectory path of transcontinental transport of dust, harmful nuclear and chemical plumes. In reality, there is little analysis'available in terms of benefits, costs and optimized set of sensors needed to make these necessary observations. This is a complex problem that must be carefully studied and balanced over many boundaries such as science, defense, early warning, security, and surveillance. Simplistically, the sensorweb concept from the technological point of view alone has a great appeal in the defense, early warning and security applications. In fact, it can be relatively less expensive in per unit cost as opposed to building and deploying it for the scientific use. However, overall observing approach should not be singled out and aligned somewhat orthogonally to serve a particular need. On the other hand, the sensorweb should be designed and deployed to serve multiple subject areas and customers simultaneously; and can behave as directed measuring systems for both science and operational entities. Sensorweb can be designed to act as expert systems, and/or also provide a dedicated integrated surveillance network. Today, there is no system in the world that is fully integrated in terms of reporting timely multiple hazards warnings, computing the loss of life and property damage estimates, and is also designed to cater to everyone's needs. It is not an easier problem to undertake and more so is not practically solvable. At this time due to some recent events in the world, the scientific community, social scientists, and operational agencies are more cognizant and getting

  4. Overview of Existing Landslide Early-Warning Systems in Operation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Michoud, C.; Bazin, S.; Blikra, L. H.; Derron, M.-H.; Jaboyedoff, M.

    2012-04-01

    The project SafeLand is intended to develop generic risk management tools and strategies for landslides. Indeed, the intention of the screening study is to provide guidelines that will help and facilitate the establishment of new early warning systems (EWS) and to increase the quality of existing systems (Bazin et al., 2012). Consequently, one of the first steps is to merge actual knowledge and expert judgments. Thus, as part of this study, we gathered experiences from organizations in charge of landslide EWSs and risk management in order to compile information about the state of the art technologies and existing strategies. To ensure those objectives, a questionnaire was produced by UNIL, ICG and ÅTB. Divided in 5 parts, the questionnaires collected information about: 1. General information on the unit in charge of the EWS; 2. Knowledge about the monitored landslide; 3. Pre-investigations used to design the EWS; 4. Monitoring parameters, thresholds and sensors evaluation; 5. Warnings, communications and decision making process. Finally, sent in June 2011 to about hundred organizations in charge of one or several EWS, 14 institutions from 8 countries sent the questionnaires back during the summer and autumn 2011, speaking about 23 landslides. The compilation and analysis of the most interesting answers are the scope of this poster. First, there are no common requirements to design and operate EWSs. From the surveyed countries, only Norway and Slovakia have produced codes or recommendations for this purpose. Secondly, more than 81% of the EWSs are based on displacement monitoring, certainly because it is the direct evidence of deformations. Then the weather conditions are monitored for more than half of the cases. It is also an essential parameter since rainfalls are a destabilizing factor for more than 80% of the studied landslides. Then, advantages and limitations of existing EWSs are clearly defined. Indeed, an EWS should be (1) robust, (2) simple, (3) redundant

  5. People-centred landslide early warning systems in the context of risk management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haß, S.; Asch, K.; Fernandez-Steeger, T.; Arnhardt, C.

    2009-04-01

    In the current hazard research people-centred warning becomes more and more important, because different types of organizations and groups have to be involved in the warning process. This fact has to be taken into account when developing early warning systems. The effectiveness of early warning depends not only on technical capabilities but also on the preparedness of decision makers and their immediate response on how to act in case of emergency. Hence early warning systems have to be regarded in the context of an integrated and holistic risk management. Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) measures include people-centred, timely and understandable warning. Further responsible authorities have to be identified in advance and standards for risk communication have to be established. Up to now, hazard and risk assessment for geohazards focuses on the development of inventory, susceptibility, hazard and risk maps. But often, especially in Europe, there are no institutional structures for managing geohazards and in addition there is a lack of an authority that is legally obliged to alarm on landslides at national or regional level. One of the main characteristics within the warning process for natural hazards e.g. in Germany is the split of responsibility between scientific authorities (wissenschaftliche Fachbehörde) and enforcement authorities (Vollzugsbehörde). The scientific authority provides the experts who define the methods and measures for monitoring and evaluate the hazard level. The main focus is the acquisition and evaluation of data and subsequently the distribution of information. The enforcement authority issues official warnings about dangerous natural phenomena. Hence the information chain in the context of early warning ranges over two different institutions, the forecast service and the warning service. But there doesn't exist a framework for warning processes in terms of landslides as yet. The concept for managing natural disasters is often reduced to

  6. An early warning system for flash floods in Egypt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cools, J.; Abdelkhalek, A.; El Sammany, M.; Fahmi, A. H.; Bauwens, W.; Huygens, M.

    2009-09-01

    This paper describes the development of the Flash Flood Manager, abbreviated as FlaFloM. The Flash Flood Manager is an early warning system for flash floods which is developed under the EU LIFE project FlaFloM. It is applied to Wadi Watier located in the Sinai peninsula (Egypt) and discharges in the Red Sea at the local economic and tourist hub of Nuweiba city. FlaFloM consists of a chain of four modules: 1) Data gathering module, 2) Forecasting module, 3) Decision support module or DSS and 4) Warning module. Each module processes input data and consequently send the output to the following module. In case of a flash flood emergency, the final outcome of FlaFloM is a flood warning which is sent out to decision-makers. The ‘data gathering module’ collects input data from different sources, validates the input, visualise data and exports it to other modules. Input data is provided ideally as water stage (h), discharge (Q) and rainfall (R) through real-time field measurements and external forecasts. This project, however, as occurs in many arid flash flood prone areas, was confronted with a scarcity of data, and insufficient insight in the characteristics that release a flash flood. Hence, discharge and water stage data were not available. Although rainfall measurements are available through classical off line rain gauges, the sparse rain gauges network couldn’t catch the spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall events. To overcome this bottleneck, we developed rainfall intensity raster maps (mm/hr) with an hourly time step and raster cell of 1*1km. These maps are derived through downscaling from two sources of global instruments: the weather research and forecasting model (WRF) and satellite estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). The ‘forecast module’ comprises three numerical models that, using data from the gathering module performs simulations on command: a rainfall-runoff model, a river flow model, and a flood model. A

  7. An early warning system for flash floods in Egypt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cools, J.; Abdelkhalek, A.; El Sammany, M.; Fahmi, A. H.; Bauwens, W.; Huygens, M.

    2009-09-01

    This paper describes the development of the Flash Flood Manager, abbreviated as FlaFloM. The Flash Flood Manager is an early warning system for flash floods which is developed under the EU LIFE project FlaFloM. It is applied to Wadi Watier located in the Sinai peninsula (Egypt) and discharges in the Red Sea at the local economic and tourist hub of Nuweiba city. FlaFloM consists of a chain of four modules: 1) Data gathering module, 2) Forecasting module, 3) Decision support module or DSS and 4) Warning module. Each module processes input data and consequently send the output to the following module. In case of a flash flood emergency, the final outcome of FlaFloM is a flood warning which is sent out to decision-makers. The ‘data gathering module’ collects input data from different sources, validates the input, visualise data and exports it to other modules. Input data is provided ideally as water stage (h), discharge (Q) and rainfall (R) through real-time field measurements and external forecasts. This project, however, as occurs in many arid flash flood prone areas, was confronted with a scarcity of data, and insufficient insight in the characteristics that release a flash flood. Hence, discharge and water stage data were not available. Although rainfall measurements are available through classical off line rain gauges, the sparse rain gauges network couldn’t catch the spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall events. To overcome this bottleneck, we developed rainfall intensity raster maps (mm/hr) with an hourly time step and raster cell of 1*1km. These maps are derived through downscaling from two sources of global instruments: the weather research and forecasting model (WRF) and satellite estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). The ‘forecast module’ comprises three numerical models that, using data from the gathering module performs simulations on command: a rainfall-runoff model, a river flow model, and a flood model. A

  8. Exploring the Role of Social Memory of Floods for Designing Flood Early Warning Operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Girons Lopez, Marc; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Grabs, Thomas; Halldin, Sven; Seibert, Jan

    2016-04-01

    Early warning systems are an important tool for natural disaster mitigation practices, especially for flooding events. Warnings rely on near-future forecasts to provide time to take preventive actions before a flood occurs, thus reducing potential losses. However, on top of the technical capacities, successful warnings require an efficient coordination and communication among a range of different actors and stakeholders. The complexity of integrating the technical and social spheres of warning systems has, however, resulted in system designs neglecting a number of important aspects such as social awareness of floods thus leading to suboptimal results. A better understanding of the interactions and feedbacks among the different elements of early warning systems is therefore needed to improve their efficiency and therefore social resilience. When designing an early warning system two important decisions need to be made regarding (i) the hazard magnitude at and from which a warning should be issued and (ii) the degree of confidence required for issuing a warning. The first decision is usually taken based on the social vulnerability and climatic variability while the second one is related to the performance (i.e. accuracy) of the forecasting tools. Consequently, by estimating the vulnerability and the accuracy of the forecasts, these two variables can be optimized to minimize the costs and losses. Important parameters with a strong influence on the efficiency of warning systems such as social awareness are however not considered in their design. In this study we present a theoretical exploration of the impact of social awareness on the design of early warning systems. For this purpose we use a definition of social memory of flood events as a proxy for flood risk awareness and test its effect on the optimization of the warning system design variables. Understanding the impact of social awareness on warning system design is important to make more robust warnings that can

  9. Earthquake Early Warning: A Prospective User's Perspective (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nishenko, S. P.; Savage, W. U.; Johnson, T.

    2009-12-01

    With more than 25 million people at risk from high hazard faults in California alone, Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) presents a promising public safety and emergency response tool. EEW represents the real-time end of an earthquake information spectrum which also includes near real-time notifications of earthquake location, magnitude, and shaking levels; as well as geographic information system (GIS)-based products for compiling and visually displaying processed earthquake data such as ShakeMap and ShakeCast. Improvements to and increased multi-national implementation of EEW have stimulated interest in how such information products could be used in the future. Lifeline organizations, consisting of utilities and transportation systems, can use both onsite and regional EEW information as part of their risk management and public safety programs. Regional EEW information can provide improved situational awareness to system operators before automatic system protection devices activate, and allow trained personnel to take precautionary measures. On-site EEW is used for earthquake-actuated automatic gas shutoff valves, triggered garage door openers at fire stations, system controls, etc. While there is no public policy framework for preemptive, precautionary electricity or gas service shutdowns by utilities in the United States, gas shut-off devices are being required at the building owner level by some local governments. In the transportation sector, high-speed rail systems have already demonstrated the ‘proof of concept’ for EEW in several countries, and more EEW systems are being installed. Recently the Bay Area Rapid Transit District (BART) began collaborating with the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) and others to assess the potential benefits of EEW technology to mass transit operations and emergency response in the San Francisco Bay region. A key issue in this assessment is that significant earthquakes are likely to occur close to or within the BART

  10. Monitoring Regional Forest Disturbances across the US with near Real Time MODIS NDVI Products Resident to the ForWarn Forest Threat Early Warning System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spruce, Joseph P.; Hargrove, William W.; Gasser, Gerald

    2013-01-01

    Forest threats across the US have become increasingly evident in recent years. Sometimes these have resulted in regionally evident disturbance progressions (e.g., from drought, bark beetle outbreaks, and wildfires) that can occur across multiyear durations and have resulted in extensive forest overstory mortality. In addition to stand replacement disturbances, other forests are subject to ephemeral, sometimes yearly defoliation from various insects and varying types and intensities of ephemeral damage from storms. Sometimes, after prolonged severe disturbance, signs of recovery in terms of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) can occur. The growing prominence and threat of forest disturbances in part have led to the formation and implementation of the 2003 Healthy Forest Restoration Act which mandated that national forest threat early warning system be developed and deployed. In response, the US Forest Service collaborated with NASA, DOE Oakridge National Laboratory, and the USGS Eros Data Center to build and roll-out the near real time ForWarn early warning system for monitoring regionally evident forest disturbances. Given the diversity of disturbance types, severities, and durations, ForWarn employs multiple historical baselines that are used with current NDVI to derive a suite of six forest change products that are refreshed every 8 days. ForWarn employs daily quarter kilometer MODIS NDVI data from the Aqua and Terra satellites, including MOD13 data for deriving historical baseline NDVIs and eMODIS 7 NDVI for compiling current NDVI. In doing so, the Time Series Product Tool and the Phenological Parameters Estimation Tool are used to temporally de-noise, fuse, and aggregate current and historical MODIS NDVIs into 24 day composites refreshed every 8 days with 46 dates of products per year. The 24 day compositing interval enables disturbances to be detected, while minimizing the frequency of residual atmospheric contamination. Forest change products are

  11. A Filter Bank Approach to Earthquake Early Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meier, Men-Andrin; Heaton, Tom; Clinton, John

    2014-05-01

    Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) is a race against time. The longer it takes to detect and characterize an ongoing event, the larger is the blind zone - the region where a warning arrives only after the most damaging ground motion has occurred. The problem is most acute during medium size earthquakes, where damaging ground motion is confined to a small zone around the epicenter. An ideal EEW algorithm which is fast enough to provide relevant alerts for such scenario events would have to produce reliable event characterization based on observations of very short snippets of data recorded at only very few stations. For such a scheme to work, without significant numbers of false alarms (which continue to hamper both single-station and network based approaches today), the real-time information that is available for an earthquake has to be exploited in a more optimal way than what is currently done. Our approach is to fully mine the broadband frequency content of incoming waveforms that contains significant information on the size and epicentral distance of the ongoing event. We propose a filter bank approach with minimum phase delay filters which allows us to use frequency information from each frequency band at each triggered station at the earliest possible time. We have compiled and processed an extensive dataset of near-field earthquake waveforms. In an empirical maximum likelihood scheme, we use the filter bank output from the first seconds after the P-wave onset of each waveform to estimate the most likely magnitude and epicentral distance to have caused this waveform. We show how our single station approach can be integrated into an evolutionary and fully probabilistic network EEW system. We demonstrate that our method can allow sufficiently accurate characterization of an ongoing event with two stations, with consistent characterization of the evolving uncertainty of the location and magnitude.

  12. Operational early warning platform for extreme meteorological events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mühr, Bernhard; Kunz, Michael

    2015-04-01

    Operational early warning platform for extreme meteorological events Most natural disasters are related to extreme weather events (e.g. typhoons); weather conditions, however, are also highly relevant for humanitarian and disaster relief operations during and after other natural disaster like earthquakes. The internet service "Wettergefahren-Frühwarnung" (WF) provides various information on extreme weather events, especially when these events are associated with a high potential for large damage. The main focus of the platform is on Central Europe, but major events are also monitored worldwide on a daily routine. WF provides high-resolution forecast maps for many weather parameters which allow detailed and reliable predictions about weather conditions during the next days in the affected areas. The WF service became operational in February 2004 and is part of the Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM) since 2007. At the end of 2011, CEDIM embarked a new type of interdisciplinary disaster research termed as forensic disaster analysis (FDA) in near real time. In case of an imminent extreme weather event WF plays an important role in CEDIM's FDA group. It provides early and precise information which are always available and updated several times during a day and gives advice and assists with articles and reports on extreme events.

  13. European Neolithic societies showed early warning signals of population collapse.

    PubMed

    Downey, Sean S; Haas, W Randall; Shennan, Stephen J

    2016-08-30

    Ecosystems on the verge of major reorganization-regime shift-may exhibit declining resilience, which can be detected using a collection of generic statistical tests known as early warning signals (EWSs). This study explores whether EWSs anticipated human population collapse during the European Neolithic. It analyzes recent reconstructions of European Neolithic (8-4 kya) population trends that reveal regime shifts from a period of rapid growth following the introduction of agriculture to a period of instability and collapse. We find statistical support for EWSs in advance of population collapse. Seven of nine regional datasets exhibit increasing autocorrelation and variance leading up to collapse, suggesting that these societies began to recover from perturbation more slowly as resilience declined. We derive EWS statistics from a prehistoric population proxy based on summed archaeological radiocarbon date probability densities. We use simulation to validate our methods and show that sampling biases, atmospheric effects, radiocarbon calibration error, and taphonomic processes are unlikely to explain the observed EWS patterns. The implications of these results for understanding the dynamics of Neolithic ecosystems are discussed, and we present a general framework for analyzing societal regime shifts using EWS at large spatial and temporal scales. We suggest that our findings are consistent with an adaptive cycling model that highlights both the vulnerability and resilience of early European populations. We close by discussing the implications of the detection of EWS in human systems for archaeology and sustainability science. PMID:27573833

  14. Monitoring Regional Forest Disturbances across the US with Near Real Time MODIS NDVI Products included in the ForWarn Forest Threat Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spruce, J.; Hargrove, W. W.; Gasser, J.; Norman, S. P.

    2013-12-01

    Forest threats across the US have become increasingly evident in recent years. These include regionally extensive disturbances (e.g., from drought, bark beetle outbreaks, and wildfires) that can occur across multiyear durations and result in extensive forest mortality. In addition, forests can be subject to ephemeral, sometimes yearly defoliation from various insects and types of storm damage. After prolonged severe disturbance, signs of forest recovery can vary in terms of satellite-based Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values. The increased extent and threat of forest disturbances in part led to the enactment of the 2003 Healthy Forest Restoration Act, which mandated that a national forest threat Early Warning System (EWS) be deployed. In response, the US Forest Service collaborated with NASA, DOE Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and the USGS Eros Data Center to build the near real time ForWarn forest threat EWS for monitoring regionally evident forest disturbances, starting on-line operations in 2010. Given the diversity of disturbance types, severities, and durations, ForWarn employs multiple historical baselines used with current NDVI to derive a suite of six nationwide 'weekly' forest change products. ForWarn uses daily 232 meter MODIS Aqua and Terra satellite NDVI data, including MOD13 products for deriving historical baseline NDVIs and eMODIS products for compiling current NDVI. Separately pre-processing the current and historical NDVIs, the Time Series Product Tool and the Phenological Parameters Estimation Tool are used to temporally reduce noise, fuse, and aggregate MODIS NDVIs into 24 day composites refreshed every 8 days with 46 dates of forest change products per year. The 24 day compositing interval typically enables new disturbances to be detected, while minimizing the frequency of residual atmospheric contamination. ForWarn's three standard forest change products compare current NDVI to that from the previous year, previous 3 years, and

  15. Integration of WERA Ocean Radar into Tsunami Early Warning Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dzvonkovskaya, Anna; Helzel, Thomas; Kniephoff, Matthias; Petersen, Leif; Weber, Bernd

    2016-04-01

    High-frequency (HF) ocean radars give a unique capability to deliver simultaneous wide area measurements of ocean surface current fields and sea state parameters far beyond the horizon. The WERA® ocean radar system is a shore-based remote sensing system to monitor ocean surface in near real-time and at all-weather conditions up to 300 km offshore. Tsunami induced surface currents cause increasing orbital velocities comparing to normal oceanographic situation and affect the measured radar spectra. The theoretical approach about tsunami influence on radar spectra showed that a tsunami wave train generates a specific unusual pattern in the HF radar spectra. While the tsunami wave is approaching the beach, the surface current pattern changes slightly in deep water and significantly in the shelf area as it was shown in theoretical considerations and later proved during the 2011 Japan tsunami. These observed tsunami signatures showed that the velocity of tsunami currents depended on a tsunami wave height and bathymetry. The HF ocean radar doesn't measure the approaching wave height of a tsunami; however, it can resolve the surface current velocity signature, which is generated when tsunami reaches the shelf edge. This strong change of the surface current can be detected by a phased-array WERA system in real-time; thus the WERA ocean radar is a valuable tool to support Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). Based on real tsunami measurements, requirements for the integration of ocean radar systems into TEWS are already defined. The requirements include a high range resolution, a narrow beam directivity of phased-array antennas and an accelerated data update mode to provide a possibility of offshore tsunami detection in real-time. The developed software package allows reconstructing an ocean surface current map of the area observed by HF radar based on the radar power spectrum processing. This fact gives an opportunity to issue an automated tsunami identification message

  16. Benefits of Earthquake Early Warning to Large Municipalities (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Featherstone, J.

    2013-12-01

    The City of Los Angeles has been involved in the testing of the Cal Tech Shake Alert, Earthquake Early Warning (EQEW) system, since February 2012. This system accesses a network of seismic monitors installed throughout California. The system analyzes and processes seismic information, and transmits a warning (audible and visual) when an earthquake occurs. In late 2011, the City of Los Angeles Emergency Management Department (EMD) was approached by Cal Tech regarding EQEW, and immediately recognized the value of the system. Simultaneously, EMD was in the process of finalizing a report by a multi-discipline team that visited Japan in December 2011, which spoke to the effectiveness of EQEW for the March 11, 2011 earthquake that struck that country. Information collected by the team confirmed that the EQEW systems proved to be very effective in alerting the population of the impending earthquake. The EQEW in Japan is also tied to mechanical safeguards, such as the stopping of high-speed trains. For a city the size and complexity of Los Angeles, the implementation of a reliable EQEW system will save lives, reduce loss, ensure effective and rapid emergency response, and will greatly enhance the ability of the region to recovery from a damaging earthquake. The current Shake Alert system is being tested at several governmental organizations and private businesses in the region. EMD, in cooperation with Cal Tech, identified several locations internal to the City where the system would have an immediate benefit. These include the staff offices within EMD, the Los Angeles Police Department's Real Time Analysis and Critical Response Division (24 hour crime center), and the Los Angeles Fire Department's Metropolitan Fire Communications (911 Dispatch). All three of these agencies routinely manage the collaboration and coordination of citywide emergency information and response during times of crisis. Having these three key public safety offices connected and included in the

  17. Monitoring and modeling agricultural drought for famine early warning (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verdin, J. P.; Funk, C.; Budde, M. E.; Lietzow, R.; Senay, G. B.; Smith, R.; Pedreros, D.; Rowland, J.; Artan, G. A.; Husak, G. J.; Michaelsen, J.; Adoum, A.; Galu, G.; Magadzire, T.; Rodriguez, M.

    2009-12-01

    The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) makes quantitative estimates of food insecure populations, and identifies the places and periods during which action must be taken to assist them. Subsistence agriculture and pastoralism are the predominant livelihood systems being monitored, and they are especially drought-sensitive. At the same time, conventional climate observation networks in developing countries are often sparse and late in reporting. Consequently, remote sensing has played a significant role since FEWS NET began in 1985. Initially there was heavy reliance on vegetation index imagery from AVHRR to identify anomalies in landscape greenness indicative of drought. In the latter part of the 1990s, satellite rainfall estimates added a second, independent basis for identification of drought. They are used to force crop water balance models for the principal rainfed staple crops in twenty FEWS NET countries. Such models reveal seasonal moisture deficits associated with yield reduction on a spatially continuous basis. In 2002, irrigated crops in southwest Asia became a concern, and prompted the implementation of a gridded energy balance model to simulate the seasonal mountain snow pack, the main source of irrigation water. MODIS land surface temperature data are also applied in these areas to directly estimate actual seasonal evapotranspiration on the irrigated lands. The approach reveals situations of reduced irrigation water supply and crop production due to drought. The availability of MODIS data after 2000 also brought renewed interest in vegetation index imagery. MODIS NDVI data have proven to be of high quality, thanks to significant spectral and spatial resolution improvements over AVHRR. They are vital to producing rapid harvest assessments for drought-impacted countries in Africa and Asia. The global food crisis that emerged in 2008 has led to expansion of FEWS NET monitoring to over 50 additional countries. Unlike previous practice, these

  18. A spatiotemporal dengue fever early warning model accounting for nonlinear associations with meteorological factors: a Bayesian maximum entropy approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Chieh-Han; Yu, Hwa-Lung; Chien, Lung-Chang

    2014-05-01

    Dengue fever has been identified as one of the most widespread vector-borne diseases in tropical and sub-tropical. In the last decade, dengue is an emerging infectious disease epidemic in Taiwan especially in the southern area where have annually high incidences. For the purpose of disease prevention and control, an early warning system is urgently needed. Previous studies have showed significant relationships between climate variables, in particular, rainfall and temperature, and the temporal epidemic patterns of dengue cases. However, the transmission of the dengue fever is a complex interactive process that mostly understated the composite space-time effects of dengue fever. This study proposes developing a one-week ahead warning system of dengue fever epidemics in the southern Taiwan that considered nonlinear associations between weekly dengue cases and meteorological factors across space and time. The early warning system based on an integration of distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) and stochastic Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) analysis. The study identified the most significant meteorological measures including weekly minimum temperature and maximum 24-hour rainfall with continuous 15-week lagged time to dengue cases variation under condition of uncertainty. Subsequently, the combination of nonlinear lagged effects of climate variables and space-time dependence function is implemented via a Bayesian framework to predict dengue fever occurrences in the southern Taiwan during 2012. The result shows the early warning system is useful for providing potential outbreak spatio-temporal prediction of dengue fever distribution. In conclusion, the proposed approach can provide a practical disease control tool for environmental regulators seeking more effective strategies for dengue fever prevention.

  19. Factors influencing the detectability of early warning signals of population collapse.

    PubMed

    Clements, Christopher F; Drake, John M; Griffiths, Jason I; Ozgul, Arpat

    2015-07-01

    The recent description of potentially generic early warning signals is a promising development that may help conservationists to anticipate a population's collapse prior to its occurrence. So far, the majority of such warning signals documented have been in highly controlled laboratory systems or in theoretical models. Data from wild populations, however, are typically restricted both temporally and spatially due to limited monitoring resources and intrinsic ecological heterogeneity-limitations that may affect the detectability of generic early warning signals, as they add additional stochasticity to population abundance estimates. Consequently, spatial and temporal subsampling may serve to either muffle or magnify early warning signals. Using a combination of theoretical models and analysis of experimental data, we evaluate the extent to which statistical warning signs are robust to data corruption. PMID:26098338

  20. Developing a NIDIS Drought Early Warning Information System for Coastal Ecosystems in the Carolinas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Darby, L. S.; Dow, K.; Lackstrom, K.; Brennan, A.; Tufford, D. L.; Conrads, P.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Webb, R. S.; Verdin, J. P.; Mcnutt, C. A.; Deheza, V.

    2013-12-01

    The National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) is in the process of developing drought early warning systems in areas of the U.S. where the coordination of drought information is critically needed. These regional drought early warning systems will become the backbone of a national drought early warning information system. Plans for the first drought early warning system started in the fall of 2008 in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), with an initial focus on the water supply in the head waters region of the Colorado River and the impacts of changes in the water supply on the UCRB. Since the establishment of the UCRB drought early warning system, other regional programs have begun in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin, four regions in the state of California, the Southern Plains, and the Four Corners region. (At this time these are considered pilot drought early warning programs, not full-fledged drought early warning systems such as the UCRB.) Activities in each of these regions are tailored to the needs of stakeholders, and all incorporate hydrometeorological predictions. However, in all of these areas NIDIS has not focused on the specific needs of coastal ecosystems during times of drought. Over the past year, NIDIS has started a pilot drought early warning system that addresses drought in the coastal ecosystems of North and South Carolina. This pilot is being developed in partnership with the Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments (CISA), a NOAA Regional Sciences and Assessments program housed at the University of South Carolina. Currently the focus of the Carolinas pilot includes the promotion of enhanced drought impact reporting to better understand the impacts of low flows on coastal ecosystems and the development of a USGS real-time salinity network for a few coastal gage stations in the Carolinas. The roles of the enhanced drought impact assessments in coastal ecosystems and the knowledge gained from a real

  1. An Early Warning System for Overcrowding in the Emergency Department

    PubMed Central

    Hoot, Nathan; Aronsky, Dominik

    2006-01-01

    Overcrowding of emergency departments impedes health care access and quality nationwide. A real-time early warning system for overcrowding may allow administrators to alleviate the problem before reaching a crisis state. Two original probabilistic models – a logistic regression and a recurrent neural network – were created to predict overcrowding crises one hour in the future. The two original and two pre-existing models were validated at 8,496 observation points from January 1, 2006 to February 28, 2006. All models showed high discriminatory ability in terms of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (logistic regression = .954; recurrent neural network = .957; EDWIN = .879; NEDOCS = .924). At comparable rates of false alarms, the logistic regression gave more advance notice of crises than other models (logistic regression = 62 min; recurrent neural network = 13 min; EDWIN = 0 min; NEDOCS = 0 min). These results demonstrate the feasibility of using models based on key operational variables to anticipate overcrowding crises in real time. PMID:17238359

  2. Mountains as early warning indicators of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, M. W.

    2015-12-01

    The panoramic splendor and complexity of mountain environments have inspired and challenged humans for centuries. These areas have been variously perceived as physical structures to be conquered, as sites of spiritual inspiration, and as some of the last untamed natural places on Earth. In our time, the perception that "mountains are forever" may provide solace to those seeking stability in a rapidly changing world. However, changes in the hydrology and in the abundance and species composition of the native flora and fauna of mountain ecosystems are potential bellwethers of global change, because these systems have a propensity to amplify environmental changes within specific portions of this landscape. Mountain areas are thus sentinels of climate change. We are seeing effects today in case histories I present from the Himalaya's, Andes, Alps, and Rocky Mountains. Furthermore, these ecosystem changes are occurring in mountain areas before they occur in downstream ecosystems. Thus, mountains are early warning indicators of perturbations such as climate change. The sensitivity of mountain ecosystems begs for enhanced protection and worldwide protection. Our understanding of the processes that control mountain ecosystems—climate interactions, snowmelt runoff, biotic diversity, nutrient cycling—is much less developed compared to downstream ecosystems where human habitation and development has resulted in large investments in scientific knowledge to sustain health and agriculture. To address these deficiencies, I propose the formation of an international mountain research consortium.

  3. Early-warning signals of topological collapse in interbank networks

    PubMed Central

    Squartini, Tiziano; van Lelyveld, Iman; Garlaschelli, Diego

    2013-01-01

    The financial crisis clearly illustrated the importance of characterizing the level of ‘systemic’ risk associated with an entire credit network, rather than with single institutions. However, the interplay between financial distress and topological changes is still poorly understood. Here we analyze the quarterly interbank exposures among Dutch banks over the period 1998–2008, ending with the crisis. After controlling for the link density, many topological properties display an abrupt change in 2008, providing a clear – but unpredictable – signature of the crisis. By contrast, if the heterogeneity of banks' connectivity is controlled for, the same properties show a gradual transition to the crisis, starting in 2005 and preceded by an even earlier period during which anomalous debt loops could have led to the underestimation of counter-party risk. These early-warning signals are undetectable if the network is reconstructed from partial bank-specific data, as routinely done. We discuss important implications for bank regulatory policies. PMID:24285089

  4. Progress of the earthquake early warning system in Fujian, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, Xing; Wei, Yongxiang; Li, Jun; Zhang, Hongcai; Ma, Qiang; Kang, Lanchi

    2013-12-01

    In this article, we systematically introduce the latest progress of the earthquake early warning (EEW) system in Fujian, China. We focus on the following key technologies and methods: continuous earthquake location and its error evaluation; magnitude estimation; reliability judgment of EEW system information; use of double-parameter principle in EEW system information release threshold; real-time estimation of seismic intensity and available time for target areas; seismic-monitoring network and data sharing platform; EEW system information release and receiving platform; software test platform; and test results statistical analysis. Based on strong ground motion data received in the mainshock of the Wenchuan earthquake, the EEW system developed by the above algorithm is simulated online, and the results show that the system can reduce earthquake hazards effectively. In addition, we analyzed four earthquake cases with magnitude greater than 5.5 processed by our EEW system since the online-testing that was started one year ago, and results indicate that our system can effectively reduce earthquake hazards and have high practical significance.

  5. A filter bank approach to earthquake early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meier, M.; Heaton, T. H.; Clinton, J. F.

    2013-12-01

    Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) is a race against time. The longer it takes to detect and characterize an ongoing event, the larger is the blind zone - the region where a warning arrives only after the most damaging ground motion has occurred. The problem is most acute during medium size earthquakes, where damaging ground motion is confined to a small zone around the epicenter. An ideal EEW algorithm which is fast enough to provide relevant alerts for such scenario events would have to produce reliable event characterization based on observations of very short snippets of data recorded at only very few stations. For such a scheme to work, without significant numbers of false alarms (which continue to hamper both single-station and network based approaches today), the real-time information that is available for an earthquake has to be exploited in a more optimal way than what is currently done. Our approach is to fully mine the broadband frequency content of incoming waveforms that contains significant information on the size and epicentral distance of the ongoing event. We propose a filter bank approach with minimum phase delay filters which allows us to use frequency information from each frequency band at each triggered station at the earliest possible time. We have compiled and processed an extensive event dataset of near-field earthquake waveforms. In an empirical maximum likelihood scheme, we use the filter bank output from the first seconds after the P-wave onset of each waveform to estimate a) the likelihood that the waveform corresponds to a local seismic event; and b) the most likely magnitude and epicentral distance to have caused this waveform. We show how our single station approach can be integrated into an evolutionary and fully probabilistic network EEW system. This method could be expanded to a Bayesian framework by considering prior information, as proposed in the Virtual Seismologist (Cua and Heaton, 2007). We demonstrate that our method can allow

  6. Application of Seismic Array Processing to Earthquake Early Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meng, L.; Allen, R. M.; Ampuero, J. P.

    2013-12-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems that can issue warnings prior to the arrival of strong ground shaking during an earthquake are essential in mitigating seismic hazard. Many of the currently operating EEW systems work on the basis of empirical magnitude-amplitude/frequency scaling relations for a point source. This approach is of limited effectiveness for large events, such as the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, for which ignoring finite source effects may result in underestimation of the magnitude. Here, we explore the concept of characterizing rupture dimensions in real time for EEW using clusters of dense low-cost accelerometers located near active faults. Back tracing the waveforms recorded by such arrays allows the estimation of the earthquake rupture size, duration and directivity in real-time, which enables the EEW of M > 7 earthquakes. The concept is demonstrated with the 2004 Parkfield earthquake, one of the few big events (M>6) that have been recorded by a local small-scale seismic array (UPSAR array, Fletcher et al, 2006). We first test the approach against synthetic rupture scenarios constructed by superposition of empirical Green's functions. We find it important to correct for the bias in back azimuth induced by dipping structures beneath the array. We implemented the proposed methodology to the mainshock in a simulated real-time environment. After calibrating the dipping-layer effect with data from smaller events, we obtained an estimated rupture length of 9 km, consistent with the distance between the two main high frequency subevents identified by back-projection using all local stations (Allman and Shearer, 2007). We proposed to deploy small-scale arrays every 30 km along the San Andreas Fault. The array processing is performed in local processing centers at each array. The output is compared with finite fault solutions based on real-time GPS system and then incorporated into the standard ElarmS system. The optimal aperture and array geometry is

  7. Toward a National Early Warning System for Forest Disturbances Using Remotely Sensed Land-Surface Phenology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hargrove, W. W.; Spruce, J.

    2010-12-01

    A prototype National Early Warning System (EWS) for Forest Disturbances was established in 2010 by producing national maps showing potential forest disturbance across the conterminous United States at 231m resolution every 8 days. Each map is based on Land-Surface Phenology (LSP), calculated using temporally smoothed MODIS MOD13 imagery obtained over the preceding 24-day analysis window. Potential disturbance maps are generated by comparing a spatially and temporally specific historical expectation of normal NDVI "greenness" with NDVI "greenness" from a series of current satellite views. Three different disturbance products are produced using differing lengths of historical baseline periods to calculate the expected normal greenness. The short-term baseline products show only disturbances newer than one year ago, while the intermediate baseline products show disturbances since the prior three years, and the long-term baseline products show all disturbances over the MODIS historical period. A Forest Change Assessment Viewer website, http://ews.forestthreats.org/NPDE/NPDE.html, showcases the three most recent national disturbance maps in full spatial context. Although 2010 was a wet el Nino year without major forest problems, disturbances in 2010 in MI, NY, CO and LA will be highlighted. Forest disturbances caused by wildfire, hurricanes, tornadoes, hail, ice storms, and defoliating insects, including fall cankerworms, forest tent caterpillars, gypsy moths, baldcypress leafrollers and winter moths were successfully detected during the 2009 and 2010 field seasons. The EWS was used in 2010 to detect and alert Forest Health Monitoring (FHM) Aerial Disturbance Survey personnel to an otherwise-unknown outbreak of forest tent caterpillar and baldcypress leafroller in the Atchafalaya and Pearl River regions of southern Louisiana. A local FHM Program Coordinator verified these EWS-detected outbreaks. Many defoliator-induced disturbances were ephemeral, and were followed by

  8. Study on Early-Warning System of Cotton Production in Hebei Province

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Runqing; Ma, Teng

    Cotton production plays an important role in Hebei. It straightly influences cotton farmers' life, agricultural production and national economic development as well. In recent years, due to cotton production frequently fluctuating, two situations, "difficult selling cotton" and "difficult buying cotton" have alternately occurred, and brought disadvantages to producers, businesses and national finance. Therefore, it is very crucial to research the early warning of cotton production for solving the problem of cotton production's frequent fluctuation and ensuring the cotton industry's sustainable development. This paper founds a signal lamp model of early warning through employing time-difference correlation analysis method to select early-warning indicators and statistical analysis method associated with empirical analysis to determine early-warning limits. Finally, it not only obtained warning conditions of cotton production from 1993 to 2006 and forecast 2007's condition, but also put forward corresponding countermeasures to prevent cotton production from fluctuating. Furthermore, an early-warning software of cotton production is completed through computer programming on the basis of the early warning model above.

  9. Study on Early-Warning System of Cotton Production in Hebei Province

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Runqing; Ma, Teng

    Cotton production plays an important role in Hebei. It straightly influences cotton farmers’ life, agricultural production and national economic development as well. In recent years, due to cotton production frequently fluctuating, two situations, “difficult selling cotton” and “difficult buying cotton” have alternately occurred, and brought disadvantages to producers, businesses and national finance. Therefore, it is very crucial to research the early warning of cotton production for solving the problem of cotton production’s frequent fluctuation and ensuring the cotton industry’s sustainable development. This paper founds a signal lamp model of early warning through employing time-difference correlation analysis method to select early-warning indicators and statistical analysis method associated with empirical analysis to determine early-warning limits. Finally, it not only obtained warning conditions of cotton production from 1993 to 2006 and forecast 2007’s condition, but also put forward corresponding countermeasures to prevent cotton production from fluctuating. Furthermore, an early-warning software of cotton production is completed through computer programming on the basis of the early warning model above.

  10. An empirical evolutionary magnitude estimation for earthquake early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Yih-Min; Chen, Da-Yi

    2016-04-01

    For earthquake early warning (EEW) system, it is a difficult mission to accurately estimate earthquake magnitude in the early nucleation stage of an earthquake occurrence because only few stations are triggered and the recorded seismic waveforms are short. One of the feasible methods to measure the size of earthquakes is to extract amplitude parameters within the initial portion of waveform after P-wave arrival. However, a large-magnitude earthquake (Mw > 7.0) may take longer time to complete the whole ruptures of the causative fault. Instead of adopting amplitude contents in fixed-length time window, that may underestimate magnitude for large-magnitude events, we suppose a fast, robust and unsaturated approach to estimate earthquake magnitudes. In this new method, the EEW system can initially give a bottom-bund magnitude in a few second time window and then update magnitude without saturation by extending the time window. Here we compared two kinds of time windows for adopting amplitudes. One is pure P-wave time widow (PTW); the other is whole-wave time window after P-wave arrival (WTW). The peak displacement amplitude in vertical component were adopted from 1- to 10-s length PTW and WTW, respectively. Linear regression analysis were implemented to find the empirical relationships between peak displacement, hypocentral distances, and magnitudes using the earthquake records from 1993 to 2012 with magnitude greater than 5.5 and focal depth less than 30 km. The result shows that using WTW to estimate magnitudes accompanies with smaller standard deviation. In addition, large uncertainties exist in the 1-second time widow. Therefore, for magnitude estimations we suggest the EEW system need to progressively adopt peak displacement amplitudes form 2- to 10-s WTW.

  11. Earthquake Early Warning using a Seismogeodetic Approach: An operational plan for Cascadia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crowell, B. W.; Bodin, P.; Vidale, J. E.; Schmidt, D. A.; Melbourne, T. I.; Scrivner, C. W.; Santillan, V. M.; Szeliga, W. M.; Minson, S. E.; Bock, Y.; Melgar, D.

    2013-12-01

    We present an operational plan for implementing combined seismic and geodetic time series in an earthquake early warning system for Cascadia. The Cascadian subduction zone presents one of the greatest risks for a megaquake in the continental United States. Ascertaining the full magnitude and extent of large earthquakes is problematic for earthquake early warning systems due to instability when double integrating strong-motion records to ground displacement. This problem can be mitigated by augmenting earthquake early warning systems with real-time GPS data, allowing for the progression and spatial extent of large earthquakes to be better resolved due to GPS's ability to measure both dynamic and permanent displacements. The Pacific Northwest Seismic Network (PNSN) at the University of Washington is implementing an integrated seismogeodetic approach to earthquake early warning. Regional GPS data are provided by the Pacific Northwest Geodetic Array (PANGA) at Central Washington University. Precise Point Positioning (PPP) solutions are sent from PANGA to the PNSN through JSON formatted streams and processed with a Python-based quality control (QC) module. The QC module also ingest accelerations from PNSN seismic stations through the Earthworm seismic acquisition and processing system for the purpose of detecting outliers and Kalman filtering when collocated instruments exist. The QC module outputs time aligned and cleaned displacement waveforms to ActiveMQ, an XML-based messaging broker that is currently used in seismic early warning architecture. Earthquake characterization modules read displacement information from ActiveMQ when triggered by warnings from ElarmS earthquake early warning algorithm. Peak ground displacement and P-wave scaling relationships from Kalman filtered waveforms provide initial magnitude estimates. Additional modules perform more complex source modeling such as centroid moment tensors and slip inversions that characterize the full size and

  12. A tsunami early warning system and tsunami source propagation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirata, K.

    2008-12-01

    The present-day's tsunami early warning systems (TEWSs) assume that a tsunami source is created instantaneously over the whole source area. However, finite rupture propagation speeds reasonably affect tsunami generation and propagation. Travel times of the first tsunami waves generated from rupture propagation fault models have to arrive later at some regions than those from instantaneous fault models but do not arrive faster everywhere [e.g., Neetsu et al., 2005]. On the other hand, the effect of earthquake rupture propagation on tsunami amplitude has scarcely investigated based on real bathymetry, although it had studied under flat ocean assumption [Aida, 1969; Yamashita and Sato, 1974]. We investigated it for regional tsunamis (travel distance between 5deg and 30 deg) by using real bathymetry in terms of numerical simulation. The grid size is 3 minutes of arc, interpolated from ETOPO2 [Smith and Sandwell, 1997]. A constant amount of slip was given on each subfault. Other subfault parameters are the same as Hirata et al.[2006]. Effect on the first upward wave amplitudes of offshore tsunamis is summarized as follows; (1) The slower the rupture velocity, the larger the increasing rate of the tsunami wave amplitude. For instance, in the offshore of the east coast of Sri Lanka, the 1st tsunami amplitude increases 10% at the rupture velocity of 3.5 km/sec, 14 % at 2.5 km/sec, 23% at 1.5 km/sec, and 38% at 1.0 km/sec in the case of 500km-long fault. This indicates that the rupture propagation effect on regional tsunami amplitude is large in the cases of slow earthquakes. (2) Increasing (or decreasing) rate in tsunami amplitude due to the rupture propagation is not necessarily larger in longer fault than shorter fault. In other words, even in the case of a short fault, say a few hundred kilometers, the effect of the rupture propagation on tsunami amplitude may not be neglected. This is because the increasing (or decreasing) rate in tsunami amplitude is related to

  13. Sentinel surveillance system for early outbreak detection in Madagascar

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Following the outbreak of chikungunya in the Indian Ocean, the Ministry of Health directed the necessary development of an early outbreak detection system. A disease surveillance team including the Institut Pasteur in Madagascar (IPM) was organized to establish a sentinel syndromic-based surveillance system. The system, which was set up in March 2007, transmits patient data on a daily basis from the various voluntary general practitioners throughout the six provinces of the country to the IPM. We describe the challenges and steps involved in developing a sentinel surveillance system and the well-timed information it provides for improving public health decision-making. Methods Surveillance was based on data collected from sentinel general practitioners (SGP). The SGPs report the sex, age, visit date and time, and symptoms of each new patient weekly, using forms addressed to the management team. However, the system is original in that SGPs also report data at least once a day, from Monday to Friday (number of fever cases, rapid test confirmed malaria, influenza, arboviral syndromes or diarrhoeal disease), by cellular telephone (encrypted message SMS). Information can also be validated by the management team, by mobile phone. This data transmission costs 120 ariary per day, less than US$1 per month. Results In 2008, the sentinel surveillance system included 13 health centers, and identified 5 outbreaks. Of the 218,849 visits to SGPs, 12.2% were related to fever syndromes. Of these 26,669 fever cases, 12.3% were related to Dengue-like fever, 11.1% to Influenza-like illness and 9.7% to malaria cases confirmed by a specific rapid diagnostic test. Conclusion The sentinel surveillance system represents the first nationwide real-time-like surveillance system ever established in Madagascar. Our findings should encourage other African countries to develop their own syndromic surveillance systems. Prompt detection of an outbreak of infectious disease may lead to

  14. The Namibia Early Flood Warning System, A CEOS Pilot Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mandl, Daniel; Frye, Stuart; Cappelaere, Pat; Sohlberg, Robert; Handy, Matthew; Grossman, Robert

    2012-01-01

    Over the past year few years, an international collaboration has developed a pilot project under the auspices of Committee on Earth Observation Satellite (CEOS) Disasters team. The overall team consists of civilian satellite agencies. For this pilot effort, the development team consists of NASA, Canadian Space Agency, Univ. of Maryland, Univ. of Colorado, Univ. of Oklahoma, Ukraine Space Research Institute and Joint Research Center(JRC) for European Commission. This development team collaborates with regional , national and international agencies to deliver end-to-end disaster coverage. In particular, the team in collaborating on this effort with the Namibia Department of Hydrology to begin in Namibia . However, the ultimate goal is to expand the functionality to provide early warning over the South Africa region. The initial collaboration was initiated by United Nations Office of Outer Space Affairs and CEOS Working Group for Information Systems and Services (WGISS). The initial driver was to demonstrate international interoperability using various space agency sensors and models along with regional in-situ ground sensors. In 2010, the team created a preliminary semi-manual system to demonstrate moving and combining key data streams and delivering the data to the Namibia Department of Hydrology during their flood season which typically is January through April. In this pilot, a variety of moderate resolution and high resolution satellite flood imagery was rapidly delivered and used in conjunction with flood predictive models in Namibia. This was collected in conjunction with ground measurements and was used to examine how to create a customized flood early warning system. During the first year, the team made use of SensorWeb technology to gather various sensor data which was used to monitor flood waves traveling down basins originating in Angola, but eventually flooding villages in Namibia. The team made use of standardized interfaces such as those articulated

  15. The maternal early warning criteria: a proposal from the national partnership for maternal safety.

    PubMed

    Mhyre, Jill M; D'Oria, Robyn; Hameed, Afshan B; Lappen, Justin R; Holley, Sharon L; Hunter, Stephen K; Jones, Robin L; King, Jeffrey C; D'Alton, Mary E

    2014-01-01

    Case reviews of maternal death have revealed a concerning pattern of delay in recognition of hemorrhage, hypertensive crisis, sepsis, venous thromboembolism, and heart failure. Early-warning systems have been proposed to facilitate timely recognition, diagnosis, and treatment for women developing critical illness. A multidisciplinary working group convened by the National Partnership for Maternal Safety used a consensus-based approach to define The Maternal Early Warning Criteria, a list of abnormal parameters that indicate the need for urgent bedside evaluation by a clinician with the capacity to escalate care as necessary in order to pursue diagnostic and therapeutic interventions. This commentary reviews the evidence supporting the use of early-warning systems, describes The Maternal Early Warning Criteria, and provides considerations for local implementation. PMID:25203897

  16. The maternal early warning criteria: a proposal from the national partnership for maternal safety.

    PubMed

    Mhyre, Jill M; DʼOria, Robyn; Hameed, Afshan B; Lappen, Justin R; Holley, Sharon L; Hunter, Stephen K; Jones, Robin L; King, Jeffrey C; DʼAlton, Mary E

    2014-10-01

    Case reviews of maternal death have revealed a concerning pattern of delay in recognition of hemorrhage, hypertensive crisis, sepsis, venous thromboembolism, and heart failure. Early-warning systems have been proposed to facilitate timely recognition, diagnosis, and treatment for women developing critical illness. A multidisciplinary working group convened by the National Partnership for Maternal Safety used a consensus-based approach to define The Maternal Early Warning Criteria, a list of abnormal parameters that indicate the need for urgent bedside evaluation by a clinician with the capacity to escalate care as necessary in order to pursue diagnostic and therapeutic interventions. This commentary reviews the evidence supporting the use of early-warning systems and describes The Maternal Early Warning Criteria, along with considerations for local implementation. PMID:25198266

  17. CISN ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning System Monitoring Tools

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henson, I. H.; Allen, R. M.; Neuhauser, D. S.

    2015-12-01

    CISN ShakeAlert is a prototype earthquake early warning system being developed and tested by the California Integrated Seismic Network. The system has recently been expanded to support redundant data processing and communications. It now runs on six machines at three locations with ten Apache ActiveMQ message brokers linking together 18 waveform processors, 12 event association processes and 4 Decision Module alert processes. The system ingests waveform data from about 500 stations and generates many thousands of triggers per day, from which a small portion produce earthquake alerts. We have developed interactive web browser system-monitoring tools that display near real time state-of-health and performance information. This includes station availability, trigger statistics, communication and alert latencies. Connections to regional earthquake catalogs provide a rapid assessment of the Decision Module hypocenter accuracy. Historical performance can be evaluated, including statistics for hypocenter and origin time accuracy and alert time latencies for different time periods, magnitude ranges and geographic regions. For the ElarmS event associator, individual earthquake processing histories can be examined, including details of the transmission and processing latencies associated with individual P-wave triggers. Individual station trigger and latency statistics are available. Detailed information about the ElarmS trigger association process for both alerted events and rejected events is also available. The Google Web Toolkit and Map API have been used to develop interactive web pages that link tabular and geographic information. Statistical analysis is provided by the R-Statistics System linked to a PostgreSQL database.

  18. Drought Risk Identification: Early Warning System of Seasonal Agrometeorological Drought

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dalecios, Nicolas; Spyropoulos, Nicos V.; Tarquis, Ana M.

    2014-05-01

    By considering drought as a hazard, drought types are classified into three categories, namely meteorological or climatological, agrometeorological or agricultural and hydrological drought and as a fourth class the socioeconomic impacts can be considered. This paper addresses agrometeorological drought affecting agriculture within the risk management framework. Risk management consists of risk assessment, as well as a feedback on the adopted risk reduction measures. And risk assessment comprises three distinct steps, namely risk identification, risk estimation and risk evaluation. This paper deals with the quantification and monitoring of agrometeorological drought, which constitute part of risk identification. For the quantitative assessment of agrometeorological or agricultural drought, as well as the computation of spatiotemporal features, one of the most reliable and widely used indices is applied, namely the Vegetation Health Index (VHI). The computation of VHI is based on satellite data of temperature and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The spatiotemporal features of drought, which are extracted from VHI are: areal extent, onset and end time, duration and severity. In this paper, a 20-year (1981-2001) time series of NOAA/AVHRR satellite data is used, where monthly images of VHI are extracted. Application is implemented in Thessaly, which is the major agricultural region of Greece characterized by vulnerable and drought-prone agriculture. The results show that every year there is a seasonal agrometeorological drought with a gradual increase in the areal extent and severity with peaks appearing usually during the summer. Drought monitoring is conducted by monthly remotely sensed VHI images. Drought early warning is developed using empirical relationships of severity and areal extent. In particular, two second-order polynomials are fitted, one for low and the other for high severity drought, respectively. The two fitted curves offer a seasonal

  19. Investigations on Real-time GPS for Earthquake Early Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grapenthin, R.; Aranha, M. A.; Melgar, D.; Allen, R. M.

    2015-12-01

    The Geodetic Alarm System (G-larmS) is a software system developed in a collaboration between the Berkeley Seismological Laboratory (BSL) and New Mexico Tech (NMT) primarily for real-time Earthquake Early Warning (EEW). It currently uses high rate (1Hz), low latency (< ~5 seconds), accurate positioning (cm level) time series data from a regional GPS network and P-wave event triggers from existing EEW algorithms, e.g. ElarmS, to compute static offsets upon S-wave arrival. G-larmS performs a least squares inversion on these offsets to determine slip on a finite fault, which we use to estimate moment magnitude. These computations are repeated every second for the duration of the event. G-larmS has been in continuous operation at the BSL for over a year using event triggers from the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) ShakeAlert system and real-time position time series from a fully triangulated network consisting of BARD, PBO and USGS stations across northern California. Pairs of stations are processed as baselines using trackRT (MIT software package). G-larmS produced good results in real-time during the South Napa (M 6.0, August 2014) earthquake as well as on several replayed and simulated test cases. We evaluate the performance of G-larmS for EEW by analysing the results using a set of well defined test cases to investigate the following: (1) using multiple fault regimes and concurrent processing with the ultimate goal of achieving model generation (slip and magnitude computations) within each 1 second GPS epoch on very large magnitude earthquakes (up to M 9.0), (2) the use of Precise Point Positioning (PPP) real-time data streams of various operators, accuracies, latencies and formats along with baseline data streams, (3) collaboratively expanding EEW coverage along the U.S. West Coast on a regional network basis for Northern California, Southern California and Cascadia.

  20. Optical-Fiber Strainmeters for Earthquake Early Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zumberge, M. A.; Agnew, D. C.; Hatfield, W.; Wyatt, F. K.

    2015-12-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) includes two tasks: detecting an earthquake and estimating its size. Detection requires low instrumental noise; estimating the size can be done most simply by estimating the moment from the static (near-field) signal, which does not saturate with magnitude. The usual approach in EEW has been to use inertial sensors (detecting acceleration) for low noise, and GPS (measuring displacement) to determine the static signal. Because a strainmeter can combine low noise and broad frequency response in a single sensor, such systems should also be considered for EEW networks. While borehole strainmeters often do not record the static offset correctly, past results from longbase laser strainmeters (LSM's) show that this can be done reliably if the strain is measured over hundreds of meters. Recent developments in optical fiber LSM's have allowed the construction of low-cost, low-power long-base LSM's with low noise in the frequency band of interest. Digital processing of the interference signal makes possible a flat frequency response from 0 to 100 Hz and a high dynamic range, with the upper limit (strain of 0.1%) set by the tensioning of the fiber. Such instruments can be flexibly sited, including in locations, such as the ocean floor, impracticable for GPS. Application of such instruments to EEW will require further, though straightforward, development of processing methods and installation techniques, as well as testing under conditions of high dynamic strain; additional modeling will be needed to determine the optimal use LSM's in an EEW seismometer/GPS network.

  1. Early Warning: Development of Confidential Incident Reporting Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    OLeary, Mike J.; Chappell, Sheryl L.; Connell, Linda (Technical Monitor)

    1996-01-01

    Accidents hardly ever happen without warning. The combination, or sequence, of failures and mistakes that cause an accident may indeed be unique but the individual failures and mistakes rarely are. In the USA in 1974 the crews on two different aircraft misunderstood the same aeronautical chart and descended towards their destination dangerously early towards a mountain. The first crew were in good weather conditions and could see the mountain and resolved their misinterpretation of the chart. The second crew six weeks later were not so lucky. In cloud they had no clues to point out their mistake nor the presence of the mountain. The resulting crash and the ensuing inquiry, which brought to light the previous incident, shocked the country but gave it the impetus to instigate a safety reporting system. This system eventually became the NASA's Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS). The programme collects incident reports from pilots, controllers, mechanics, cabin attendants and many others involved in aviation operations. By disseminating this safety information the ASRS has helped enormously to give US airlines and airspace the highest safety standards. Accident prevention is a goal sought by everyone in the aviation industry and establishing effective incident reporting programmes can go a long way toward achieving that goal. This article will describe the steps and issues required to establish an incident reporting system. The authors summarize the lessons learned from the ASRS, now in its twentieth year of operation and from the Confidential Human Factors Reporting (HER) Programme run by British Airways, an airline that is a recognized world leader in safety reporting and analysis. The differences between government and airline operation of confidential safety reporting systems will be addressed.

  2. USAID Expands eMODIS Coverage for Famine Early Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jenkerson, C.; Meyer, D. J.; Evenson, K.; Merritt, M.

    2011-12-01

    Food security in countries at risk is monitored by U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) through its Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) using many methods including Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data processed by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) into eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) products. Near-real time production is used comparatively with trends derived from the eMODIS archive to operationally monitor vegetation anomalies indicating threatened cropland and rangeland conditions. eMODIS production over Central America and the Caribbean (CAMCAR) began in 2009, and processes 10-day NDVI composites every 5 days from surface reflectance inputs produced using predicted spacecraft and climatology information at Land and Atmosphere Near real time Capability for Earth Observing Systems (EOS) (LANCE). These expedited eMODIS composites are backed by a parallel archive of precision-based NDVI calculated from surface reflectance data ordered through Level 1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS). Success in the CAMCAR region led to the recent expansion of eMODIS production to include Africa in 2010, and Central Asia in 2011. Near-real time 250-meter products are available for each region on the last day of an acquisition interval (generally before midnight) from an anonymous file transfer protocol (FTP) distribution site (ftp://emodisftp.cr.usgs.gov/eMODIS). The FTP site concurrently hosts the regional historical collections (2000 to present) which are also searchable using the USGS Earth Explorer (http://edcsns17.cr.usgs.gov/NewEarthExplorer). As eMODIS coverage continues to grow, these geographically gridded, georeferenced tagged image file format (GeoTIFF) NDVI composites increase their utility as effective tools for operational monitoring of near-real time vegetation data against historical trends.

  3. Incorporating Hydroepidemiology into the Epidemia Malaria Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wimberly, M. C.; Merkord, C. L.; Henebry, G. M.; Senay, G. B.

    2014-12-01

    Early warning of the timing and locations of malaria epidemics can facilitate the targeting of resources for prevention and emergency response. In response to this need, we are developing the Epidemic Prognosis Incorporating Disease and Environmental Monitoring for Integrated Assessment (EPIDEMIA) computer system. EPIDEMIA incorporates software for capturing, processing, and integrating environmental and epidemiological data from multiple sources; data assimilation techniques that continually update models and forecasts; and a web-based interface that makes the resulting information available to public health decision makers. The system will enable forecasts that incorporate lagged responses to environmental risk factors as well as information about recent trends in malaria cases. Because the egg, larval, and pupal stages of mosquito development occur in aquatic habitats, information about the spatial and temporal distributions of stagnant water bodies is critical for modeling malaria risk. Potential sources of hydrological data include satellite-derived rainfall estimates, evapotranspiration (ET) calculated using a simplified surface energy balance model, and estimates of soil moisture and fractional water cover from passive microwave radiometry. We used partial least squares regression to analyze and visualize seasonal patterns of these variables in relation to malaria cases using data from 49 districts in the Amhara region of Ethiopia. Seasonal patterns of rainfall were strongly associated with the incidence and seasonality of malaria across the region, and model fit was improved by the addition of remotely-sensed ET and soil moisture variables. The results highlight the importance of remotely-sensed hydrological data for modeling malaria risk in this region and emphasize the value of an ensemble approach that utilizes multiple sources of information about precipitation and land surface wetness. These variables will be incorporated into the forecasting models at

  4. Operational real-time GPS-enhanced earthquake early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grapenthin, R.; Johanson, I. A.; Allen, R. M.

    2014-10-01

    Moment magnitudes for large earthquakes (Mw≥7.0) derived in real time from near-field seismic data can be underestimated due to instrument limitations, ground tilting, and saturation of frequency/amplitude-magnitude relationships. Real-time high-rate GPS resolves the buildup of static surface displacements with the S wave arrival (assuming nonsupershear rupture), thus enabling the estimation of slip on a finite fault and the event's geodetic moment. Recently, a range of high-rate GPS strategies have been demonstrated on off-line data. Here we present the first operational system for real-time GPS-enhanced earthquake early warning as implemented at the Berkeley Seismological Laboratory (BSL) and currently analyzing real-time data for Northern California. The BSL generates real-time position estimates operationally using data from 62 GPS stations in Northern California. A fully triangulated network defines 170+ station pairs processed with the software trackRT. The BSL uses G-larmS, the Geodetic Alarm System, to analyze these positioning time series and determine static offsets and preevent quality parameters. G-larmS derives and broadcasts finite fault and magnitude information through least-squares inversion of the static offsets for slip based on a priori fault orientation and location information. This system tightly integrates seismic alarm systems (CISN-ShakeAlert, ElarmS-2) as it uses their P wave detections to trigger its processing; quality control runs continuously. We use a synthetic Hayward Fault earthquake scenario on real-time streams to demonstrate recovery of slip and magnitude. Reanalysis of the Mw7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake tests the impact of dynamic motions on offset estimation. Using these test cases, we explore sensitivities to disturbances of a priori constraints (origin time, location, and fault strike/dip).

  5. Implementation of an Early Warning Scoring System to Identify Patients With Cancer at Risk for Deterioration.

    PubMed

    Olsen, MiKaela; Mooney, Kathy; Evans, Ellen

    2016-08-01

    Early warning scoring systems are tools for nurses to help monitor their patients and improve how quickly a patient experiencing a sudden decline receives clinical care. Nurse leaders and frontline staff at a major academic medical center implemented a new early warning system that gives clear guidelines to nurses, nursing assistants, and other clinicians about vital-sign parameters and changes in patients' mental status. 
. PMID:27441509

  6. Technology-Based Early Warning Systems for Bipolar Disorder: A Conceptual Framework.

    PubMed

    Depp, Colin; Torous, John; Thompson, Wesley

    2016-01-01

    Recognition and timely action around "warning signs" of illness exacerbation is central to the self-management of bipolar disorder. Due to its heterogeneity and fluctuating course, passive and active mobile technologies have been increasingly evaluated as adjunctive or standalone tools to predict and prevent risk of worsening of course in bipolar disorder. As predictive analytics approaches to big data from mobile health (mHealth) applications and ancillary sensors advance, it is likely that early warning systems will increasingly become available to patients. Such systems could reduce the amount of time spent experiencing symptoms and diminish the immense disability experienced by people with bipolar disorder. However, in addition to the challenges in validating such systems, we argue that early warning systems may not be without harms. Probabilistic warnings may be delivered to individuals who may not be able to interpret the warning, have limited information about what behaviors to change, or are unprepared to or cannot feasibly act due to time or logistic constraints. We propose five essential elements for early warning systems and provide a conceptual framework for designing, incorporating stakeholder input, and validating early warning systems for bipolar disorder with a focus on pragmatic considerations. PMID:27604265

  7. Study on the early warning mechanism for the security of blast furnace hearths

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Hong-bo; Huo, Shou-feng; Cheng, Shu-sen

    2013-04-01

    The campaign life of blast furnace (BF) hearths has become the limiting factor for safety and high efficiency production of modern BFs. However, the early warning mechanism of hearth security has not been clear. In this article, based on heat transfer calculations, heat flux and erosion monitoring, the features of heat flux and erosion were analyzed and compared among different types of hearths. The primary detecting elements, mathematical models, evaluating standards, and warning methods were discussed. A novel early warning mechanism with the three-level quantificational standards was proposed for BF hearth security.

  8. [Ecological security early-warning in Zhoushan Islands based on variable weight model].

    PubMed

    Zhou, Bin; Zhong, Lin-sheng; Chen, Tian; Zhou, Rui

    2015-06-01

    Ecological security early warning, as an important content of ecological security research, is of indicating significance in maintaining regional ecological security. Based on driving force, pressure, state, impact and response (D-P-S-I-R) framework model, this paper took Zhoushan Islands in Zhejiang Province as an example to construct the ecological security early warning index system, test degrees of ecological security early warning of Zhoushan Islands from 2000 to 2012 by using the method of variable weight model, and forecast ecological security state of 2013-2018 by Markov prediction method. The results showed that the variable weight model could meet the study needs of ecological security early warning of Zhoushan Islands. There was a fluctuant rising ecological security early warning index from 0.286 to 0.484 in Zhoushan Islands between year 2000 and 2012, in which the security grade turned from "serious alert" into " medium alert" and the indicator light turned from "orange" to "yellow". The degree of ecological security warning was "medium alert" with the light of "yellow" for Zhoushan Islands from 2013 to 2018. These findings could provide a reference for ecological security maintenance of Zhoushan Islands. PMID:26572042

  9. Implementation of malaria dynamic models in municipality level early warning systems in Colombia. Part I: description of study sites.

    PubMed

    Ruiz, Daniel; Cerón, Viviana; Molina, Adriana M; Quiñónes, Martha L; Jiménez, Mónica M; Ahumada, Martha; Gutiérrez, Patricia; Osorio, Salua; Mantilla, Gilma; Connor, Stephen J; Thomson, Madeleine C

    2014-07-01

    As part of the Integrated National Adaptation Pilot project and the Integrated Surveillance and Control System, the Colombian National Institute of Health is working on the design and implementation of a Malaria Early Warning System framework, supported by seasonal climate forecasting capabilities, weather and environmental monitoring, and malaria statistical and dynamic models. In this report, we provide an overview of the local ecoepidemiologic settings where four malaria process-based mathematical models are currently being implemented at a municipal level. The description includes general characteristics, malaria situation (predominant type of infection, malaria-positive cases data, malaria incidence, and seasonality), entomologic conditions (primary and secondary vectors, mosquito densities, and feeding frequencies), climatic conditions (climatology and long-term trends), key drivers of epidemic outbreaks, and non-climatic factors (populations at risk, control campaigns, and socioeconomic conditions). Selected pilot sites exhibit different ecoepidemiologic settings that must be taken into account in the development of the integrated surveillance and control system. PMID:24891460

  10. Implementation of Malaria Dynamic Models in Municipality Level Early Warning Systems in Colombia. Part I: Description of Study Sites

    PubMed Central

    Ruiz, Daniel; Cerón, Viviana; Molina, Adriana M.; Quiñónes, Martha L.; Jiménez, Mónica M.; Ahumada, Martha; Gutiérrez, Patricia; Osorio, Salua; Mantilla, Gilma; Connor, Stephen J.; Thomson, Madeleine C.

    2014-01-01

    As part of the Integrated National Adaptation Pilot project and the Integrated Surveillance and Control System, the Colombian National Institute of Health is working on the design and implementation of a Malaria Early Warning System framework, supported by seasonal climate forecasting capabilities, weather and environmental monitoring, and malaria statistical and dynamic models. In this report, we provide an overview of the local ecoepidemiologic settings where four malaria process-based mathematical models are currently being implemented at a municipal level. The description includes general characteristics, malaria situation (predominant type of infection, malaria-positive cases data, malaria incidence, and seasonality), entomologic conditions (primary and secondary vectors, mosquito densities, and feeding frequencies), climatic conditions (climatology and long-term trends), key drivers of epidemic outbreaks, and non-climatic factors (populations at risk, control campaigns, and socioeconomic conditions). Selected pilot sites exhibit different ecoepidemiologic settings that must be taken into account in the development of the integrated surveillance and control system. PMID:24891460

  11. Web-based Tsunami Early Warning System with instant Tsunami Propagation Calculations in the GPU Cloud

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hammitzsch, M.; Spazier, J.; Reißland, S.

    2014-12-01

    Usually, tsunami early warning and mitigation systems (TWS or TEWS) are based on several software components deployed in a client-server based infrastructure. The vast majority of systems importantly include desktop-based clients with a graphical user interface (GUI) for the operators in early warning centers. However, in times of cloud computing and ubiquitous computing the use of concepts and paradigms, introduced by continuously evolving approaches in information and communications technology (ICT), have to be considered even for early warning systems (EWS). Based on the experiences and the knowledge gained in three research projects - 'German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System' (GITEWS), 'Distant Early Warning System' (DEWS), and 'Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises' (TRIDEC) - new technologies are exploited to implement a cloud-based and web-based prototype to open up new prospects for EWS. This prototype, named 'TRIDEC Cloud', merges several complementary external and in-house cloud-based services into one platform for automated background computation with graphics processing units (GPU), for web-mapping of hazard specific geospatial data, and for serving relevant functionality to handle, share, and communicate threat specific information in a collaborative and distributed environment. The prototype in its current version addresses tsunami early warning and mitigation. The integration of GPU accelerated tsunami simulation computations have been an integral part of this prototype to foster early warning with on-demand tsunami predictions based on actual source parameters. However, the platform is meant for researchers around the world to make use of the cloud-based GPU computation to analyze other types of geohazards and natural hazards and react upon the computed situation picture with a web-based GUI in a web browser at remote sites. The current website is an early alpha version for demonstration purposes to give the

  12. Earthquake early warning system using real-time signal processing

    SciTech Connect

    Leach, R.R. Jr.; Dowla, F.U.

    1996-02-01

    An earthquake warning system has been developed to provide a time series profile from which vital parameters such as the time until strong shaking begins, the intensity of the shaking, and the duration of the shaking, can be derived. Interaction of different types of ground motion and changes in the elastic properties of geological media throughout the propagation path result in a highly nonlinear function. We use neural networks to model these nonlinearities and develop learning techniques for the analysis of temporal precursors occurring in the emerging earthquake seismic signal. The warning system is designed to analyze the first-arrival from the three components of an earthquake signal and instantaneously provide a profile of impending ground motion, in as little as 0.3 sec after first ground motion is felt at the sensors. For each new data sample, at a rate of 25 samples per second, the complete profile of the earthquake is updated. The profile consists of a magnitude-related estimate as well as an estimate of the envelope of the complete earthquake signal. The envelope provides estimates of damage parameters, such as time until peak ground acceleration (PGA) and duration. The neural network based system is trained using seismogram data from more than 400 earthquakes recorded in southern California. The system has been implemented in hardware using silicon accelerometers and a standard microprocessor. The proposed warning units can be used for site-specific applications, distributed networks, or to enhance existing distributed networks. By producing accurate, and informative warnings, the system has the potential to significantly minimize the hazards of catastrophic ground motion. Detailed system design and performance issues, including error measurement in a simple warning scenario are discussed in detail.

  13. Model slope infiltration experiments for shallow landslides early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Damiano, E.; Greco, R.; Guida, A.; Olivares, L.; Picarelli, L.

    2009-04-01

    Occurrence of fast landslides has become more and more dangerous during the last decades, due to the increased density of settlements, industrial plants and infrastructures. Such problem is particularly worrying in Campania (Southern Italy), where the fast population growth led a diffuse building activity without planning: indeed, recent flowslides caused hundreds of victims and heavy damages to buildings, roads and other infrastructures. Large mountainous areas in Campania are mantled by loose pyroclastic granular soils up to a depth of a few meters from top soil surface. These soils have usually a grain size that falls in the domain of silty sands, including pumice interbeds (gravelly sands), with saturated hydraulic conductivities up to the order of 10-1 cm/min. Such deposits often cover steep slopes, which stability is guaranteed by the apparent cohesion due to suction under unsaturated conditions, that are the most common conditions for these slopes [Olivares and Picarelli, 2001]. Whereas rainfall infiltration causes soil to approach saturation, suction vanishes and slope failure may occur. Besides soil physical properties, landslide triggering is influenced by several factors, such as rainfall intensity, soil initial moisture and suction, slope inclination, boundary conditions. Whereas slope failure occurs with soil close to being saturated, landslide may develop in form of fast and destructive flowslide. Calibration of reliable mathematical models of such a complex phenomenon requires availability of experimental observations of the major variables of interest, such as soil moisture and suction, soil deformation and displacements, pore water pressure, during the entire process of infiltration until slope failure. Due to the sudden trigger and extremely rapid propagation of such type of landslides, such data sets are rarely available for natural slopes where flowslides occurred. As a consequence landslide risk assessment and early warning in Campania rely on

  14. The SAFER-Project and Seismic Early Warning in Europe (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zschau, J.; Gasparini, P.

    2009-12-01

    SAFER (Seismic EArly Warning For EuRope) is the first large scale scientific project in Europe on earthquake early warning. It is funded by the European Commission in the context of Framework Program 6 under the theme Sustainable Development, Global Change and Ecosystems. Its general objective is to develop knowledge and tools for increasing the capability of effective earthquake early warning in Europe and to implement and test these tools in selected European cities. The SAFER project was carried out between 2006 and 2009 by a consortium formed by 20 institutes from 11 European and Mediterranean countries (Germany, Italy, Greece, Romania, Switzerland, Norway, France, the Netherlands, Iceland, Turkey and Egypt) and one each from Japan, Taiwan and USA. Five major earthquake prone cities were chosen as test areas: Athens, Bucharest, Cairo, Istanbul and Naples. The combined population of these cities is about 40 million inhabitants and all have experienced severe earthquakes in recent years. SAFER is strongly multi-disciplinary, calling upon expertise in seismology, structural and geotechnical engineering, informatics and statistics. Some of the specific problems addressed are related to - the rapid determination of earthquake size, complex earthquake features, and damage potential; - the implementation of a fully probabilistic framework for applications of earthquake early warning based on cost-benefit analysis; - the development of a new generation of early warning systems being decentralised and people-centred, and - the implementation of the real-time “shake map”-technology in large European cities. The presentation will review the major scientific findings, comment on the improvements of the earthquake early warning capabilities achieved by SAFER in the five test cities, and present some ideas for the future development of earthquake early warning in Europe.

  15. Modeling and Remote Sensing for a Dust/Health Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sprigg, W. A.

    2015-12-01

    Airborne desert dust is a human health problem in much of the world. While controlling emissions from arid lands is problematic, advances in remote sensing and modeling have matured sufficiently to reduce risks of exposure. Active dust sources are identified and monitored from space-based platforms and from modeled back-trajectories. Satellite-based sensors detect and monitor airborne dust crossing oceans and circling the globe. High-resolution dust forecasts and simulations over the U.S. southwest have been successfully demonstrated. Operational dust forecast systems could warn of intercontinental dust movements and potential dust exposure hazards on spatial scales of a few kilometers and on time scales sufficient for planning and avoiding risks. This paper will show how the World Meteorological Organization's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System could coordinate international collaboration for a worldwide Dust/Health Early Warning System modeled after the decades-long success of the international Famine Early Warning System.

  16. A Sustainable Early Warning System for Climate Change Impacts on Water Quality Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, T.; Tung, C.; Chung, N.

    2007-12-01

    In this era of rapid social and technological change leading to interesting life complexity and environmental displacement, both positive and negative effects among ecosystems call for a balance in which there are impacts by climate changes. Early warning systems for climate change impacts are necessary in order to allow society as a whole to properly and usefully assimilate the masses of new information and knowledge. Therefore, our research addresses to build up a sustainable early warning mechanism. The main goal is to mitigate the cumulative impacts on the environment of climate change and enhance adaptive capacities. An effective early warning system has been proven for protection. However, there is a problem that estimate future climate changes would be faced with high uncertainty. In general, take estimations for climate change impacts would use the data from General Circulation Models and take the analysis as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change declared. We follow the course of the method for analyzing climate change impacts and attempt to accomplish the sustainable early warning system for water quality management. Climate changes impact not only on individual situation but on short-term variation and long-term gradually changes. This kind characteristic should adopt the suitable warning system for long-term formulation and short- term operation. To continue the on-going research of the long-term early warning system for climate change impacts on water quality management, the short-term early warning system is established by using local observation data for reappraising the warning issue. The combination of long-term and short-term system can provide more circumstantial details. In Taiwan, a number of studies have revealed that climate change impacts on water quality, especially in arid period, the concentration of biological oxygen demand may turn into worse. Rapid population growth would also inflict injury on its assimilative capacity to

  17. Predicting High School Graduation and College Enrollment: Comparing Early Warning Indicator Data and Teacher Intuition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Soland, James

    2013-01-01

    Each year, more districts implement early warning systems (EWS). These EWS predict negative student outcomes, such as dropping out, before they occur. Predictions are then used to match at-risk students to appropriate supports and interventions. Research suggests that these systems are useful in ensuring educators respond to student needs early,…

  18. Theory and Application of Early Warning Systems for High School and Beyond

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carl, Bradley; Richardson, Jed T.; Cheng, Emily; Kim, HeeJin; Meyer, Robert H.

    2013-01-01

    This article describes the development of early warning indicators for high school and beyond in the Milwaukee Public Schools (MPS) by the Value-Added Research Center (VARC) at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, working in conjunction with staff from the Division of Research and Evaluation at MPS. Our work in MPS builds on prior early warning…

  19. A Framework for Monitoring and Maintenance of a Tsunami Early Warning System using ITIL®

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gensch, Stephan; Günther, Michael; Henneberger, Ralph; Strollo, Angelo

    2013-04-01

    Within this work, we present our approach and ongoing efforts to establish monitoring and maintenance processes for Tsunami Early Warning Systems. Practical work is done within the context of the Indonesian Tsunami Warning System (INATEWS) at Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG) in Jakarta, Indonesia. The German contribution is well known as GITEWS. INATEWS is composed of several thousand integrated system components and numerous software processes. Due to the heterogeneity and complexity of the system, as well as the high availability needs, being an operational TEWS, real-time monitoring, reporting and scheduled preventive maintenance are needed. To develop and install an organizational and operational methodology for maintenance processes for INATEWS, we asserted ITIL® methods and are in development of Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) together with BMKG operational and management staff. ITIL®-conforming methods are one means of IT Service Management which has been adopted by a variety of service oriented IT providers. An early warning system does not expose classical consumer services, but the dissemination of warning messages and an early warning as a product may nevertheless be viewed as distinct services provided by a TEWS. We applied methods from ITIL® to the modular and hierarchical components of an early warning center, where minimum requirements on service availability, reliability and correctness of the warning product exist, from dissemination down to each sensor component. We describe functions of actors that ensure management of incidents and problems, as well as managing applications, IT operations and further technical issues. For the components of the early warning system, we present a model of event detection and event resolution. Real-time monitoring provides automated health-checks. Errors lead to reports to designated targets. Preventive maintenance provides findings on data and system availability, and data quality. Each

  20. Tree rings provide early warning signals of jack pine mortality across a moisture gradient in the southern boreal forest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mamet, S. D.; Chun, K. P.; Metsaranta, J. M.; Barr, A. G.; Johnstone, J. F.

    2015-08-01

    Recent declines in productivity and tree survival have been widely observed in boreal forests. We used early warning signals (EWS) in tree ring data to anticipate premature mortality in jack pine (Pinus banksiana)—an extensive and dominant species occurring across the moisture-limited southern boreal forest in North America. We sampled tree rings from 113 living and 84 dead trees in three soil moisture regimes (subxeric, submesic, subhygric) in central Saskatchewan, Canada. We reconstructed annual increments of tree basal area to investigate (1) whether we could detect EWS related to mortality of individual trees, and (2) how water availability and tree growth history may explain the mortality warning signs. EWS were evident as punctuated changes in growth patterns prior to transition to an alternative state of reduced growth before dying. This transition was likely triggered by a combination of severe drought and insect outbreak. Higher moisture availability associated with a soil moisture gradient did not appear to reduce tree sensitivity to stress-induced mortality. Our results suggest tree rings offer considerable potential for detecting critical transitions in tree growth, which are linked to premature mortality.

  1. Model slope infiltration experiments for shallow landslides early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Damiano, E.; Greco, R.; Guida, A.; Olivares, L.; Picarelli, L.

    2009-04-01

    Occurrence of fast landslides has become more and more dangerous during the last decades, due to the increased density of settlements, industrial plants and infrastructures. Such problem is particularly worrying in Campania (Southern Italy), where the fast population growth led a diffuse building activity without planning: indeed, recent flowslides caused hundreds of victims and heavy damages to buildings, roads and other infrastructures. Large mountainous areas in Campania are mantled by loose pyroclastic granular soils up to a depth of a few meters from top soil surface. These soils have usually a grain size that falls in the domain of silty sands, including pumice interbeds (gravelly sands), with saturated hydraulic conductivities up to the order of 10-1 cm/min. Such deposits often cover steep slopes, which stability is guaranteed by the apparent cohesion due to suction under unsaturated conditions, that are the most common conditions for these slopes [Olivares and Picarelli, 2001]. Whereas rainfall infiltration causes soil to approach saturation, suction vanishes and slope failure may occur. Besides soil physical properties, landslide triggering is influenced by several factors, such as rainfall intensity, soil initial moisture and suction, slope inclination, boundary conditions. Whereas slope failure occurs with soil close to being saturated, landslide may develop in form of fast and destructive flowslide. Calibration of reliable mathematical models of such a complex phenomenon requires availability of experimental observations of the major variables of interest, such as soil moisture and suction, soil deformation and displacements, pore water pressure, during the entire process of infiltration until slope failure. Due to the sudden trigger and extremely rapid propagation of such type of landslides, such data sets are rarely available for natural slopes where flowslides occurred. As a consequence landslide risk assessment and early warning in Campania rely on

  2. Quantifying the effect of early warning systems for mitigating risks from alpine hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Straub, Daniel; Sättele, Martina; Bründl, Michael

    2016-04-01

    Early warning systems (EWS) are increasingly applied as flexible and non-intrusive measures for mitigating risks from alpine hazards. They are typically planed and installed in an ad-hoc manner and their effectiveness is not quantified, which is in contrast to structural risk mitigation measures. The effect of an EWS on the risk depends on human decision makers: experts interpret the signals from EWS, authorities decide on intervention measures and the public responds to the warnings. This interaction of the EWS with humans makes the quantification of their effectiveness challenging. Nevertheless, such a quantification is an important step in understanding, improving and justifying the use of EWS. We systematically discuss and demonstrate the factors that influence EWS effectiveness for alpine hazards, and present approaches and tools for analysing them. These include Bayesian network models, which are a powerful tool for an integral probabilistic assessment. The theory is illustrated through applications of warning systems for debris flow and rockfall hazards. References: Sättele M., Bründl M., Straub D. (in print). Quantifying the effectiveness of early warning systems for natural hazards. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. Sättele M., Bründl M., Straub D. (2015). Reliability and Effectiveness of Warning Systems for Natural Hazards: Concepts and Application to Debris Flow Warning. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 142: 192-202

  3. Climate change implications and use of early warning systems for global dust storms

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harriman, Lindsey M.

    2014-01-01

    With increased changes in land cover and global climate, early detection and warning of dust storms in conjunction with effective and widespread information broadcasts will be essential to the prevention and mitigation of future risks and impacts. Human activities, seasonal variations and long-term climatic patterns influence dust storms. More research is needed to analyse these factors of dust mobilisation to create more certainty for the fate of vulnerable populations and ecosystems in the future. Early warning and communication systems, when in place and effectively implemented, can offer some relief to these vulnerable areas. As an issue that affects many regions of the world, there is a profound need to understand the potential changes and ultimately create better early warning systems for dust storms.

  4. Behavior of Early Warnings near the Critical Temperature in the Two-Dimensional Ising Model

    PubMed Central

    Morales, Irving O.; Landa, Emmanuel; Angeles, Carlos Calderon; Toledo, Juan C.; Rivera, Ana Leonor; Temis, Joel Mendoza; Frank, Alejandro

    2015-01-01

    Among the properties that are common to complex systems, the presence of critical thresholds in the dynamics of the system is one of the most important. Recently, there has been interest in the universalities that occur in the behavior of systems near critical points. These universal properties make it possible to estimate how far a system is from a critical threshold. Several early-warning signals have been reported in time series representing systems near catastrophic shifts. The proper understanding of these early-warnings may allow the prediction and perhaps control of these dramatic shifts in a wide variety of systems. In this paper we analyze this universal behavior for a system that is a paradigm of phase transitions, the Ising model. We study the behavior of the early-warning signals and the way the temporal correlations of the system increase when the system is near the critical point. PMID:26103513

  5. Using SMAP data to improve drought early warning over the US Great Plains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fu, R.; Fernando, N.; Tang, W.

    2015-12-01

    A drought prone region such as the Great Plains of the United States (US GP) requires credible and actionable drought early warning. Such information cannot simply be extracted from available climate forecasts because of their large uncertainties at regional scales, and unclear connections to the needs of the decision makers. In particular, current dynamic seasonal predictions and climate projections, such as those produced by the NOAA North American Multi-Model Ensemble experiment (NMME) are much more reliable for winter and spring than for the summer season for the US GP. To mitigate the weaknesses of dynamic prediction/projections, we have identified three key processes behind the spring-to-summer dry memory through observational studies, as the scientific basis for a statistical drought early warning system. This system uses percentile soil moisture anomalies in spring as a key input to provide a probabilistic summer drought early warning. The latter outperforms the dynamic prediction over the US Southern Plains and has been used by the Texas state water agency to support state drought preparedness. A main source of uncertainty for this drought early warning system is the soil moisture input obtained from the NOAA Climate Forecasting System (CFS). We are testing use of the beta version of NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) soil moisture data, along with the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS), and the long-term Essential Climate Variable Soil Moisture (ECV-SM) soil moisture data, to reduce this uncertainty. Preliminary results based on ECV-SM suggests satellite based soil moisture data could improve early warning of rainfall anomalies over the western US GP with less dense vegetation. The skill degrades over the eastern US GP where denser vegetation is found. We evaluate our SMAP-based drought early warning for 2015 summer against observations.

  6. [Research of medical equipment risk early warning system based on EAI].

    PubMed

    Zhong, Jianping; Li, Jing

    2014-05-01

    After signs of risk have been happened in risk management of medical equipment at present, reports are taken step by step. So there is a report not timely, incomplete information, it is difficult to monitor, and many other problems. With the improvement of risk management requirements; the development of the information technology s apply, and increasing sources of information used for risk early warning analysis. This paper analyzes the requirement of risk management, and proposes a total solution of enterprise risk early warning based on EAI. It will make managers accurately and fully grasp the risks, find risk signs timely, speed up the response to risk. PMID:25241524

  7. Geoethical considerations in early warning of flooding and landslides: Case study from Norway

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Devoli, Graziella; Kleivane Krøgli, Ingeborg; Dahl, Mads Peter; Colleuille, Hervé; Nykjær Boje, Søren; Sund, Monica

    2015-04-01

    The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) runs the national early warning systems (EWS) for flooding and shallow landslides in Norway. The two EWSs have been operational since the late 1980s and 2013 respectively, and are based on weather forecasts, various hydro-meteorological prognosis and expert evaluation. Daily warning levels and related information to the public is prepared and presented through custom build internet platforms. In natural hazards sciences, the risk of a specific threat is defined as the product of hazard and consequence. In this context an EWS is intended to work as a mitigation measure in lowering the consequence and thus the risk of the threat. One of several factors determining the quality of such an EWS, is how warnings are communicated to the public. In contrary to what is common practice in some other countries, experts working with EWS in Norway cannot be held personally responsible for consequences of warnings being issued or not. However, the communication of warnings for flooding and landslides at NVE still implies many considerations of geoethical kind. Which are the consequences today for the forecasters when erroneous warning messages are sent because based on a poorly documented analysis? What is for example the most responsible way to describe uncertainties in warnings issued? What is the optimal compromise between avoiding false alarms and not sending out a specific warning? Is it responsible to rely on a "gut feeling"? Some authorities complain in receiving warning messages too often. Is it responsible to begin notifying these, only in cases of "high hazard level" and no longer in cases of "moderate hazard level"? Is it acceptable to issue general warnings for large geographical areas without being able to pinpoint the treat on local scale? What responsibility lies within the EWS in recommending evacuation or other practical measures to local authorities? By presenting how early warnings of flooding and

  8. Near Real-Time Determination of Earthquake Source Parameters for Tsunami Early Warning from Geodetic Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Manneela, Sunanda; Srinivasa Kumar, T.; Nayak, Shailesh R.

    2016-06-01

    Exemplifying the tsunami source immediately after an earthquake is the most critical component of tsunami early warning, as not every earthquake generates a tsunami. After a major under sea earthquake, it is very important to determine whether or not it has actually triggered the deadly wave. The near real-time observations from near field networks such as strong motion and Global Positioning System (GPS) allows rapid determination of fault geometry. Here we present a complete processing chain of Indian Tsunami Early Warning System (ITEWS), starting from acquisition of geodetic raw data, processing, inversion and simulating the situation as it would be at warning center during any major earthquake. We determine the earthquake moment magnitude and generate the centroid moment tensor solution using a novel approach which are the key elements for tsunami early warning. Though the well established seismic monitoring network, numerical modeling and dissemination system are currently capable to provide tsunami warnings to most of the countries in and around the Indian Ocean, the study highlights the critical role of geodetic observations in determination of tsunami source for high-quality forecasting.

  9. Application of array backprojection to tsunami prediction and early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    An, Chao; Meng, Lingsen

    2016-04-01

    Teleseismic and static geodetic data have weak constraints on the offshore slip while tsunami data are limited by their availability, so predictions of tsunami waves in the near-field remain challenging. In this study, we develop a near-field tsunami prediction approach based on seismic array backprojections (BP). In this approach, the rupture area is first estimated by enclosing the BP radiators. Then slip models with uniform slip are constructed based on statistical scaling relations between rupture area and seismic moment to predict the near-field tsunami waveforms. The method is applied to the 2011 Tohoku, 2014 Iquique, and 2015 Illapel tsunami events, and the model predictions are compared with tsunami recordings at 57 tidal gauges and nine DART stations. Results show that the average error of arrival time and amplitude nearshore is approximately -15 to +5 min and 0.5 m, respectively, which are sufficiently small for tsunami warning purposes.

  10. Real-time earthquake monitoring: Early warning and rapid response

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    A panel was established to investigate the subject of real-time earthquake monitoring (RTEM) and suggest recommendations on the feasibility of using a real-time earthquake warning system to mitigate earthquake damage in regions of the United States. The findings of the investigation and the related recommendations are described in this report. A brief review of existing real-time seismic systems is presented with particular emphasis given to the current California seismic networks. Specific applications of a real-time monitoring system are discussed along with issues related to system deployment and technical feasibility. In addition, several non-technical considerations are addressed including cost-benefit analysis, public perceptions, safety, and liability.

  11. Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model.

    PubMed

    Boulton, Chris A; Allison, Lesley C; Lenton, Timothy M

    2014-01-01

    The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exhibits two stable states in models of varying complexity. Shifts between alternative AMOC states are thought to have played a role in past abrupt climate changes, but the proximity of the climate system to a threshold for future AMOC collapse is unknown. Generic early warning signals of critical slowing down before AMOC collapse have been found in climate models of low and intermediate complexity. Here we show that early warning signals of AMOC collapse are present in a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, subject to a freshwater hosing experiment. The statistical significance of signals of increasing lag-1 autocorrelation and variance vary with latitude. They give up to 250 years warning before AMOC collapse, after ~550 years of monitoring. Future work is needed to clarify suggested dynamical mechanisms driving critical slowing down as the AMOC collapse is approached. PMID:25482065

  12. Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model

    PubMed Central

    Boulton, Chris A.; Allison, Lesley C.; Lenton, Timothy M.

    2014-01-01

    The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exhibits two stable states in models of varying complexity. Shifts between alternative AMOC states are thought to have played a role in past abrupt climate changes, but the proximity of the climate system to a threshold for future AMOC collapse is unknown. Generic early warning signals of critical slowing down before AMOC collapse have been found in climate models of low and intermediate complexity. Here we show that early warning signals of AMOC collapse are present in a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, subject to a freshwater hosing experiment. The statistical significance of signals of increasing lag-1 autocorrelation and variance vary with latitude. They give up to 250 years warning before AMOC collapse, after ~550 years of monitoring. Future work is needed to clarify suggested dynamical mechanisms driving critical slowing down as the AMOC collapse is approached. PMID:25482065

  13. Role of MODIS Vegetation Phenology Products in the U.S. for Warn Early Warning System for Forest Threats

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spruce, Joseph; Hargrove, William; Norman, Steve; Gasser, Gerald; Smoot, James; Kuper, Philip

    2012-01-01

    U.S. forests occupy approx 751 million acres (approx 1/3 of total land). Several abiotic and biotic damage agents disturb, damage, kill, and/or threaten these forests. Regionally extensive forest disturbances can also threaten human life and property, bio-diversity and water supplies. timely regional forest disturbance monitoring products are needed to aid forest health management work at finer scales. daily MODIS data provide a means to monitor regional forest disturbances on a weekly basis, leveraging vegetation phenology. In response, the USFS and NASA began collaborating in 2006 to develop a Near Real Time (NRT) forest monitoring capability, based on MODIS NDVI data, as part of a national forest threat Early Warning System (EWS).

  14. Performance analysis of landslide early warning systems at regional scale: the EDuMaP method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piciullo, Luca; Calvello, Michele

    2016-04-01

    Landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) reduce landslide risk by disseminating timely and meaningful warnings when the level of risk is judged intolerably high. Two categories of LEWSs, can be defined on the basis of their scale of analysis: "local" systems and "regional" systems. LEWSs at regional scale (ReLEWSs) are used to assess the probability of occurrence of landslides over appropriately-defined homogeneous warning zones of relevant extension, typically through the prediction and monitoring of meteorological variables, in order to give generalized warnings to the public. Despite many studies on ReLEWSs, no standard requirements exist for assessing their performance. Empirical evaluations are often carried out by simply analysing the time frames during which significant high-consequence landslides occurred in the test area. Alternatively, the performance evaluation is based on 2x2 contingency tables computed for the joint frequency distribution of landslides and alerts, both considered as dichotomous variables. In all these cases, model performance is assessed neglecting some important aspects which are peculiar to ReLEWSs, among which: the possible occurrence of multiple landslides in the warning zone; the duration of the warnings in relation to the time of occurrence of the landslides; the level of the warning issued in relation to the landslide spatial density in the warning zone; the relative importance system managers attribute to different types of errors. An original approach, called EDuMaP method, is proposed to assess the performance of landslide early warning models operating at regional scale. The method is composed by three main phases: Events analysis, Duration Matrix, Performance analysis. The events analysis phase focuses on the definition of landslide (LEs) and warning events (WEs), which are derived from available landslides and warnings databases according to their spatial and temporal characteristics by means of ten input parameters. The

  15. Early warning signs for saddle-escape transitions in complex networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuehn, Christian; Zschaler, Gerd; Gross, Thilo

    2015-08-01

    Many real world systems are at risk of undergoing critical transitions, leading to sudden qualitative and sometimes irreversible regime shifts. The development of early warning signals is recognized as a major challenge. Recent progress builds on a mathematical framework in which a real-world system is described by a low-dimensional equation system with a small number of key variables, where the critical transition often corresponds to a bifurcation. Here we show that in high-dimensional systems, containing many variables, we frequently encounter an additional non-bifurcative saddle-type mechanism leading to critical transitions. This generic class of transitions has been missed in the search for early-warnings up to now. In fact, the saddle-type mechanism also applies to low-dimensional systems with saddle-dynamics. Near a saddle a system moves slowly and the state may be perceived as stable over substantial time periods. We develop an early warning sign for the saddle-type transition. We illustrate our results in two network models and epidemiological data. This work thus establishes a connection from critical transitions to networks and an early warning sign for a new type of critical transition. In complex models and big data we anticipate that saddle-transitions will be encountered frequently in the future.

  16. Early warning signs for saddle-escape transitions in complex networks

    PubMed Central

    Kuehn, Christian; Zschaler, Gerd; Gross, Thilo

    2015-01-01

    Many real world systems are at risk of undergoing critical transitions, leading to sudden qualitative and sometimes irreversible regime shifts. The development of early warning signals is recognized as a major challenge. Recent progress builds on a mathematical framework in which a real-world system is described by a low-dimensional equation system with a small number of key variables, where the critical transition often corresponds to a bifurcation. Here we show that in high-dimensional systems, containing many variables, we frequently encounter an additional non-bifurcative saddle-type mechanism leading to critical transitions. This generic class of transitions has been missed in the search for early-warnings up to now. In fact, the saddle-type mechanism also applies to low-dimensional systems with saddle-dynamics. Near a saddle a system moves slowly and the state may be perceived as stable over substantial time periods. We develop an early warning sign for the saddle-type transition. We illustrate our results in two network models and epidemiological data. This work thus establishes a connection from critical transitions to networks and an early warning sign for a new type of critical transition. In complex models and big data we anticipate that saddle-transitions will be encountered frequently in the future. PMID:26294271

  17. 78 FR 51381 - Early Warning Reporting, Foreign Defect Reporting, and Motor Vehicle and Equipment Recall...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-08-20

    ... published on April 11, 2000 (65 FR 19477-78). For access to the docket to read background documents or..., subpart C; see 67 FR 45822. The EWR rule requires quarterly reporting of early warning information... EWR rule. 72 FR 29435. First, the definition of ``fire'' was amended to more accurately capture...

  18. 77 FR 55605 - Early Warning Reporting, Foreign Defect Reporting, and Motor Vehicle and Equipment Recall...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-09-10

    ... certain early warning data. 49 CFR part 579, subpart C; see 67 FR 45822. The EWR rule requires quarterly... CFR part 579, subpart B, 67 FR 63310. Under these regulations, manufacturers are required to submit... amendments to the EWR regulations. On May 29, 2007, NHTSA made three changes to the EWR rule. 72 FR...

  19. 78 FR 48863 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Comment Request; Evaluation of the Early Warning and...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-08-12

    ... in response to this notice will be considered public records. Title of Collection: Evaluation of the... Agency Information Collection Activities; Comment Request; Evaluation of the Early Warning and Intervention Monitoring System AGENCY: Institute of Education Sciences/National Center for Education...

  20. National High School Center Early Warning System Tool v2.0: Technical Manual

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National High School Center, 2011

    2011-01-01

    The Early Warning System (EWS) Tool v2.0 is a Microsoft Excel-based tool developed by the National High School Center at the American Institutes for Research in collaboration with Matrix Knowledge Group. The tool enables schools, districts, and states to identify students who may be at risk of dropping out of high school and to monitor these…

  1. Relation between stability and resilience determines the performance of early warning signals under different environmental drivers

    PubMed Central

    Dai, Lei; Korolev, Kirill S.; Gore, Jeff

    2015-01-01

    Shifting patterns of temporal fluctuations have been found to signal critical transitions in a variety of systems, from ecological communities to human physiology. However, failure of these early warning signals in some systems calls for a better understanding of their limitations. In particular, little is known about the generality of early warning signals in different deteriorating environments. In this study, we characterized how multiple environmental drivers influence the dynamics of laboratory yeast populations, which was previously shown to display alternative stable states [Dai et al., Science, 2012]. We observed that both the coefficient of variation and autocorrelation increased before population collapse in two slowly deteriorating environments, one with a rising death rate and the other one with decreasing nutrient availability. We compared the performance of early warning signals across multiple environments as “indicators for loss of resilience.” We find that the varying performance is determined by how a system responds to changes in a specific driver, which can be captured by a relation between stability (recovery rate) and resilience (size of the basin of attraction). Furthermore, we demonstrate that the positive correlation between stability and resilience, as the essential assumption of indicators based on critical slowing down, can break down in this system when multiple environmental drivers are changed simultaneously. Our results suggest that the stability–resilience relation needs to be better understood for the application of early warning signals in different scenarios. PMID:26216946

  2. A Practitioner's Guide to Implementing Early Warning Systems. REL 2015-056

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Frazelle, Sarah; Nagel, Aisling

    2015-01-01

    To stem the tide of students dropping out, many schools and districts are turning to early warning systems (EWS) that signal whether a student is at risk of not graduating from high school. While some research exists about establishing these systems, there is little information about the actual implementation strategies that are being used across…

  3. A Practitioner's Guide to Implementing Early Warning Systems. REL 2015-056

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Frazelle, Sarah; Nagel, Aisling

    2015-01-01

    To stem the tide of students dropping out, many schools and districts are turning to early warning systems (EWS) that signal whether a student is at risk of not graduating from high school. While some research exists about establishing these systems, there is little information about the actual implementation strategies that are being used across…

  4. PROPOSED WATER QUALITY SURVEILLANCE NETWORK USING PHYSICAL, CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS (CBEWS)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Homeland Protection Act of 2002 specifically calls for the investigation and use of Early Warning Systems (EWS) for water security reasons. The EWS is a screening tool for detecting changes in source water and distribution system water quality. A suite of time-relevant biol...

  5. PROPOSED WATER QUALITY SURVEILLANCE NETWORK USING PHYSICAL, CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS (BEWS)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Homeland Protection Act of 2002 specifically calls for the investigation and use of Early Warning Systems (EWS) for water security reasons. The EWS is a screening tool for detecting changes in source water and distribution system water quality. A suite of time-relevant biol...

  6. Dynamic Critical Rainfall-Based Flash Flood Early Warning and Forecasting for Medium-Small Rivers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Z.; Yang, D.; Hu, J.

    2012-04-01

    China is extremely frequent food disasters hit countries, annual flood season flash floods triggered by rainfall, mudslides, landslides have caused heavy casualties and property losses, not only serious threaten the lives of the masses, but the majority of seriously restricting the mountain hill areas of economic and social development and the people become rich, of building a moderately prosperous society goals. In the next few years, China will focus on prevention and control area in the flash flood disasters initially built "for the surveillance, communications, forecasting, early warning and other non-engineering measure based, non-engineering measures and the combinations of engineering measures," the mitigation system. The latest progresses on global torrential flood early warning and forecasting techniques are reviewed in this paper, and then an early warning and forecasting approach is proposed on the basis of a distributed hydrological model according to dynamic critical rainfall index. This approach has been applied in Suichuanjiang River basin in Jiangxi province, which is expected to provide valuable reference for building a national flash flood early warning and forecasting system as well as control of such flooding.

  7. LEW-II: new Lightning Early Warning System at Sandia National Laboratories

    SciTech Connect

    Boettger, J.P.

    1980-01-01

    Improvements made in the Lightning Early Warning (LEW) System at Sandia are described. The improvements include a new more flexible display unit; redesign of the sensor system for a total rf system; updating the computer system; and a new Radio Frequecy Potential Gradient Monitor (RFPG-II). (LCL)

  8. Creating a Culture of Safety Through Integration of an Early Warning System.

    PubMed

    Hanley, Diane; Abele, Debra; Alley, Anthony J; Smith, Kellie; Gaden, Nancy W; Phoenix Bittner, Nancy

    2016-02-01

    This quality improvement project utilized the Tanner model to identify strategies to enhance the clinical judgment among staff nurses through the development and adoption of an early warning system for patient deterioration outside the ICU. Outcomes included improved communication, decreased variability in the assessment and interpretation of patient status, and a significant decrease in codes. PMID:26796820

  9. Land use planning and early warning systems for limiting drought impacts and promoting recovery

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Land use planning and drought early warning systems both require an understanding of ecological potential and resilience, and how they vary across space and through time. A large body of literature and local knowledge has documented the importance of considering soil variability for land use plannin...

  10. Destination Graduation: Sixth Grade Early Warning Indicators for Baltimore City Schools. Their Prevalence and Impact

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baltimore Education Research Consortium, 2011

    2011-01-01

    Even with the declining number of dropouts in Baltimore City, a focus on dropout prevention is essential. Recent research has emphasized the utility of an early warning system to inform prevention efforts. With this in mind, the Baltimore Education Research Consortium examined the 2000-01 cohort of sixth grade students (Class of 2007) from the…

  11. Early Warning System for reducing disaster risk: the technological platform DEWETRA for the Republic of Serbia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Massabo, Marco; Molini, Luca; Kostic, Bojan; Campanella, Paolo; Stevanovic, Slavimir

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk reduction has long been recognized for its role in mitigating the negative environmental, social and economic impacts of natural hazards. Flood Early Warning System is a disaster risk reduction measure based on the capacities of institutions to observe and predict extreme hydro-meteorological events and to disseminate timely and meaningful warning information; it is furthermore based on the capacities of individuals, communities and organizations to prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss. An operational definition of an Early Warning System has been suggested by ISDR - UN Office for DRR [15 January 2009]: "EWS is the set of capacities needed to generate and disseminate timely and meaningful warning information to enable individuals, communities and organizations threatened by a hazard to prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss.". ISDR continues by commenting that a people-centered early warning system necessarily comprises four key elements: 1-knowledge of the risks; 2-monitoring, analysis and forecasting of the hazards; 3-communication or dissemination of alerts and warnings; and 4- local capabilities to respond to the warnings received." The technological platform DEWETRA supports the strengthening of the first three key elements of EWS suggested by ISDR definition, hence to improve the capacities to build real-time risk scenarios and to inform and warn the population in advance The technological platform DEWETRA has been implemented for the Republic of Serbia. DEWETRA is a real time-integrate system that supports decision makers for risk forecasting and monitoring and for distributing warnings to end-user and to the general public. The system is based on the rapid availability of different data that helps to establish up-to-date and reliable risk scenarios. The integration of all relevant data for risk management significantly

  12. Forests and Phenology: Designing the Early Warning System to Understand Forest Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pierce, T.; Phillips, M. B.; Hargrove, W. W.; Dobson, G.; Hicks, J.; Hutchins, M.; Lichtenstein, K.

    2010-12-01

    Vegetative phenology is the study of plant development and changes with the seasons, such as the greening-up and browning-down of forests, and how these events are influenced by variations in climate. A National Phenology Data Set, based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellite images covering 2002 through 2009, is now available from work by NASA, the US Forest Service, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. This new data set provides an easily interpretable product useful for detecting changes to the landscape due to long-term factors such as climate change, as well as finding areas affected by short-term forest threats such as insects or disease. The Early Warning System (EWS) is a toolset being developed by the US Forest Service and the University of North Carolina-Asheville to support distribution and use of the National Phenology Data Set. The Early Warning System will help research scientists, US Forest Service personnel, forest and natural resources managers, decision makers, and the public in the use of phenology data to better understand unexpected change within our nation’s forests. These changes could have multiple natural sources such as insects, disease, or storm damage, or may be due to human-induced events, like thinning, harvest, forest conversion to agriculture, or residential and commercial use. The primary goal of the Early Warning System is to provide a seamless integration between monitoring, detection, early warning and prediction of these forest disturbances as observed through phenological data. The system consists of PC and web-based components that are structured to support four user stages of increasing knowledge and data sophistication. Building Literacy: This stage of the Early Warning System educates potential users about the system, why the system should be used, and the fundamentals about the data the system uses. The channels for this education include a website, interactive tutorials, pamphlets, and other technology

  13. Flood early warning along the East Coast of Scotland and the Storm of December 2012

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cranston, Michael; Hu, Keming

    2013-04-01

    Flood warning is at the heart of improved approaches to flood risk management in Scotland. The Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) is committed to reducing the impact of coastal flooding through the provision of reliable and timely flood warnings. They have specifically set out a programme of enhancing coastal flood forecasting through modelling and improved understanding of coastal flooding processes and improved approaches to wind and wave forecasting in coastal and tidal waters. In 2011, SEPA commissioned a project to develop a flood forecasting and warning system for the Firths of Forth and Tay along Scotland's North East coast. The new approach to flood forecasting has just been implemented into the Flood Early Warning System (FEWS) (Cranston and Tavendale, 2012) to contribute to the real-time flood forecasting and warning service from November 2012. The new system enables the prediction of coastal and tidal flooding and allows SEPA to warn people about potential flooding, using the latest advances in coastal modelling. The approach to the forecasting system includes: the transformation of tidal surge forecasts from Leith to 28 flood warning sites along the coast and inside the Firths of Forth and Tay; the transformation of offshore wave forecasts to inshore locations including the Firths of Forth and Tay; and the transformation of inshore wave forecasts to mean wave overtopping forecasts at six key communities at risk. In December 2012, some communities along the east coast of Scotland experienced their most severe storm damage since the Great 1953 Storm. This paper will discuss how the flood forecasting system was developed and how the system was utilised in real time during the recent storm. References Cranston, M. D. and Tavendale, A. C. W. (2012) Advances in operational flood forecasting in Scotland. Proceedings of the ICE - Water Management, 165, 2, 79-87.

  14. Faster Detection of Poliomyelitis Outbreaks to Support Polio Eradication.

    PubMed

    Blake, Isobel M; Chenoweth, Paul; Okayasu, Hiro; Donnelly, Christl A; Aylward, R Bruce; Grassly, Nicholas C

    2016-03-01

    As the global eradication of poliomyelitis approaches the final stages, prompt detection of new outbreaks is critical to enable a fast and effective outbreak response. Surveillance relies on reporting of acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) cases and laboratory confirmation through isolation of poliovirus from stool. However, delayed sample collection and testing can delay outbreak detection. We investigated whether weekly testing for clusters of AFP by location and time, using the Kulldorff scan statistic, could provide an early warning for outbreaks in 20 countries. A mixed-effects regression model was used to predict background rates of nonpolio AFP at the district level. In Tajikistan and Congo, testing for AFP clusters would have resulted in an outbreak warning 39 and 11 days, respectively, before official confirmation of large outbreaks. This method has relatively high specificity and could be integrated into the current polio information system to support rapid outbreak response activities. PMID:26890053

  15. Faster Detection of Poliomyelitis Outbreaks to Support Polio Eradication

    PubMed Central

    Chenoweth, Paul; Okayasu, Hiro; Donnelly, Christl A.; Aylward, R. Bruce; Grassly, Nicholas C.

    2016-01-01

    As the global eradication of poliomyelitis approaches the final stages, prompt detection of new outbreaks is critical to enable a fast and effective outbreak response. Surveillance relies on reporting of acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) cases and laboratory confirmation through isolation of poliovirus from stool. However, delayed sample collection and testing can delay outbreak detection. We investigated whether weekly testing for clusters of AFP by location and time, using the Kulldorff scan statistic, could provide an early warning for outbreaks in 20 countries. A mixed-effects regression model was used to predict background rates of nonpolio AFP at the district level. In Tajikistan and Congo, testing for AFP clusters would have resulted in an outbreak warning 39 and 11 days, respectively, before official confirmation of large outbreaks. This method has relatively high specificity and could be integrated into the current polio information system to support rapid outbreak response activities. PMID:26890053

  16. Decision-relevant early-warning thresholds for ensemble flood forecasting systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stephens, Liz; Pappenberger, Florian; Cloke, Hannah; Alfieri, Lorenzo

    2014-05-01

    Over and under warning of potential future floods is problematic for decision-making, and could ultimately lead to trust being lost in the forecasts. The use of ensemble flood forecasting systems for early warning therefore requires a consideration of how to determine and implement decision-relevant thresholds for flood magnitude and probability. This study uses a year's worth of hindcasts from the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) to explore the sensitivity of the warning system to the choice of threshold. We use a number of different methods for choosing these thresholds, building on current approaches that use model climatologies to determine the critical flow magnitudes, to those that can provide 'first guesses' of potential impacts (through integration with global-scale inundation mapping), as well as methods that could incorporate resource limitations.

  17. An integrated earthquake early warning system and its performance at schools in Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Bing-Ru; Hsiao, Nai-Chi; Lin, Pei-Yang; Hsu, Ting-Yu; Chen, Chiou-Yun; Huang, Shieh-Kung; Chiang, Hung-Wei

    2016-06-01

    An earthquake early warning (EEW) system with integration of regional and onsite approaches was installed at nine demonstration stations in several districts of Taiwan for taking advantages of both approaches. The system performance was evaluated by a 3-year experiment at schools, which experienced five major earthquakes during this period. The blind zone of warning was effectively reduced by the integrated EEW system. The predicted intensities from EEW demonstration stations showed acceptable accuracy compared to field observations. The operation experience from an earthquake event proved that students could calmly carry out correct action before the seismic wave arrived using some warning time provided by the EEW system. Through successful operation in practice, the integrated EEW system was verified as an effective tool for disaster prevention at schools.

  18. Availability and Reliability of Disaster Early Warning Systems and the IT Infrastructure Library

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wächter, J.; Loewe, P.

    2012-12-01

    The Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 caused an information catastrophy. Crucial early warning information could not be delivered to the communities under imminent threat, resulting in over 240,000 casualties in 14 countries. This tragedy sparked the development of a new generation of integrated modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). While significant advances were accomplished in the past years, recent events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key technical challenge for Tsunami Early Warning research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of status information and reliable early warning messages. A key challenge stems from the main objective of the IOC Tsunami Programme, the integration of national TEWS towards ocean-wide networks: Each of the increasing number of integrated Tsunami Early Warning Centres has to cope with the continuing evolution of sensors, hardware and software while having to maintain reliable inter-center information exchange services. To avoid future information catastrophes, the performance of all components, ranging from sensors to Warning Centers, has to be regularly validated against defined criteria. This task is complicated by the fact that in term of ICT system life cycles tsunami are very rare event resulting in very difficult framing conditions to safeguard the availability and reliability of TWS. Since 2004, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CEGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already: The German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS), a European project funded under the sixth Framework Programme (FP6). These developments are continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical

  19. Study of Water Pollution Early Warning Framework Based on Internet of Things

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chengfang, H.; Xiao, X.; Dingtao, S.; Bo, C.; Xiongfei, W.

    2016-06-01

    In recent years, with the increasing world environmental pollution happening, sudden water pollution incident has become more and more frequently in China. It has posed a serious threat to water safety of the people living in the water source area. Conventional water pollution monitoring method is manual periodic testing, it maybe miss the best time to find that pollution incident. This paper proposes a water pollution warning framework to change this state. On the basis of the Internet of things, we uses automatic water quality monitoring technology to realize monitoring. We calculate the monitoring data with water pollution model to judge whether the water pollution incident is happen or not. Water pollution warning framework is divided into three layers: terminal as the sensing layer, it with the deployment of the automatic water quality pollution monitoring sensor. The middle layer is the transfer network layer, data information implementation is based on GPRS wireless network transmission. The upper one is the application layer. With these application systems, early warning information of water pollution will realize the high-speed transmission between grassroots units and superior units. The paper finally gives an example that applying this pollution warning framework to water quality monitoring of Beijing, China, it greatly improves the speed of the pollution warning responding of Beijing.

  20. Integrating earth observations and model results provides earlier Famine Early Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brown, M. E.; Funk, C. C.; Galu, G.; Choularton, R.

    2007-12-01

    Remote sensing allows us to detect slowly evolving natural hazards such as agricultural drought. Famine early warning systems transform this data into actionable policy information, enabling humanitarian organizations to respond in a timely and appropriate manner. These life saving responses are increasingly important. In 2006, 1 out of 8 people did not have enough to eat, 22 million more people became undernourished, and 22 countries provided 6.5 billion dollars in food aid. The motivation is strong, therefore, to increase the effectiveness of every dollar of food aid provided, ensuring that the assistance arrives sufficiently early to ward off human and economic catastrophe. Properly interpreted remote sensing information reduces the influence of politics in determining the amount and location of aid delivered. In this talk we will review three recent contributions that earth observations have provided to famine early warning: trend identification, increasingly accurate forecasts of food security conditions, and enhanced integration of biophysical and socio-economic data.

  1. Food Security, Decision Making and the Use of Remote Sensing in Famine Early Warning Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brown, Molly E.

    2008-01-01

    Famine early warning systems use remote sensing in combination with socio-economic and household food economy analysis to provide timely and rigorous information on emerging food security crises. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) is the US Agency for International Development's decision support system in 20 African countries, as well as in Guatemala, Haiti and Afghanistan. FEWS NET provides early and actionable policy guidance for the US Government and its humanitarian aid partners. As we move into an era of climate change where weather hazards will become more frequent and severe, understanding how to provide quantitative and actionable scientific information for policy makers using biophysical data is critical for an appropriate and effective response.

  2. Early Warning/Track-and-Trigger Systems to Detect Deterioration and Improve Outcomes in Hospitalized Patients.

    PubMed

    Shiloh, Ariel L; Lominadze, George; Gong, Michelle N; Savel, Richard H

    2016-02-01

    As a global effort toward improving patient safety, a specific area of focus has been the early recognition and rapid intervention in deteriorating ward patients. This focus on "failure to rescue" has led to the construction of early warning/track-and-trigger systems. In this review article, we present a description of the data behind the creation and implementation of such systems, including multiple algorithms and strategies for deployment. Additionally, the strengths and weaknesses of the various systems and their evaluation in the literature are emphasized. Despite the limitations of the current literature, the potential benefit of these early warning/track-and-trigger systems to improve patient outcomes remains significant. PMID:26820276

  3. Consistent Estimates of Tsunami Energy Show Promise for Improved Early Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Titov, V.; Song, Y. Tony; Tang, L.; Bernard, E. N.; Bar-Sever, Y.; Wei, Y.

    2016-05-01

    Early tsunami warning critically hinges on rapid determination of the tsunami hazard potential in real-time, before waves inundate critical coastlines. Tsunami energy can quickly characterize the destructive potential of generated waves. Traditional seismic analysis is inadequate to accurately predict a tsunami's energy. Recently, two independent approaches have been proposed to determine tsunami source energy: one inverted from the Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) data during the tsunami propagation, and the other derived from the land-based coastal global positioning system (GPS) during tsunami generation. Here, we focus on assessing these two approaches with data from the March 11, 2011 Japanese tsunami. While the GPS approach takes into consideration the dynamic earthquake process, the DART inversion approach provides the actual tsunami energy estimation of the propagating tsunami waves; both approaches lead to consistent energy scales for previously studied tsunamis. Encouraged by these promising results, we examined a real-time approach to determine tsunami source energy by combining these two methods: first, determine the tsunami source from the globally expanding GPS network immediately after an earthquake for near-field early warnings; and then to refine the tsunami energy estimate from nearby DART measurements for improving forecast accuracy and early cancelations. The combination of these two real-time networks may offer an appealing opportunity for: early determination of the tsunami threat for the purpose of saving more lives, and early cancelation of tsunami warnings to avoid unnecessary false alarms.

  4. Assessing the add value of ensemble forecast in a drought early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calmanti, Sandro; Bosi, Lorenzo; Fernandez, Jesus; De Felice, Matteo

    2015-04-01

    The EU-FP7 project EUPORIAS is developing a prototype climate service to enhance the existing food security drought early warning system in Ethiopia. The Livelihoods, Early Assessment and Protection (LEAP) system is the Government of Ethiopia's national food security early warning system, established with the support of WFP and the World Bank in 2008. LEAP was designed to increase the predictability and timeliness of response to drought-related food crises in Ethiopia. It combines early warning with contingency planning and contingency funding, to allow the government, WFP and other partners to provide early assistance in anticipation of an impending catastrophes. Currently, LEAP uses satellite based rainfall estimates to monitor drought conditions and to compute needs. The main aim of the prototype is to use seasonal hindcast data to assess the added value of using ensemble climate rainfall forecasts to estimate the cost of assistance of population hit by major droughts. We outline the decision making process that is informed by the prototype climate service, and we discuss the analysis of the expected and skill of the available rainfall forecast data over Ethiopia. One critical outcome of this analysis is the strong dependence of the expected skill on the observational estimate assumed as reference. A preliminary evaluation of the full prototype products (drought indices and needs estimated) using hindcasts data will also be presented.

  5. Tsunami early warning in the Mediterranean: current and potential contributions of seismic information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lomax, Anthony; Michelini, Alberto; Lorito, Stefano

    2013-04-01

    Effective tsunami early warning after an earthquake in the Mediterranean basin is made difficult by the short distances and tsunami travel-times between earthquake/tsunami source regions and coast lines at risk. For tsunami hazard and risk assessment worldwide, seismic monitoring and analysis currently provide the majority of information available within the first tens of minutes after an earthquake. In the future, information from multi-sensors buoys, GPS, airborne and space systems, real-time tsunami forecasting, citizen devices, and other technologies, along with improvements in seismic monitoring and analysis procedures will help to increase the coverage, rapidity and reliability of tsunami warning. Here we examine the current and potential future contributions of seismic networks and analysis procedures to tsunami early warning in the Mediterranean basin. We discuss and asses the timing and reliability of established and newly proposed seismic methods to determine rapidly the location, magnitude, moment-tensor, faulting geometry and tsunami potential of earthquakes in the Mediterranean area. We consider a broad context, including present and future seismic network coverage, the constraints of short distances between source and risk zones, and the hazard from moderate size earthquakes. We examine real-time, evolutionary presentation of seismic information, along with prior and non-seismic information, for use within decision systems for tsunami warning.

  6. a Process-Based Drought Early Warning Indicator for Supporting State Drought Mitigation Decision

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fu, R.; Fernando, D. N.; Pu, B.

    2014-12-01

    Drought prone states such as Texas requires creditable and actionable drought early warning ranging from seasonal to multi-decadal scales. Such information cannot be simply extracted from the available climate prediction and projections because of their large uncertainties at regional scales and unclear connections to the needs of the decision makers. In particular, current dynamic seasonal predictions and climate projections, such as those produced by the NOAA national multi-models ensemble experiment (NMME) and the IPCC AR5 (CMIP5) models, are much more reliable for winter and spring than for the summer season for the US Southern Plains. They also show little connection between the droughts in winter/spring and those in summer, in contrast to the observed dry memory from spring to summer over that region. To mitigate the weakness of dynamic prediction/projections, we have identified three key processes behind the spring-to-summer dry memory through observational studies. Based on these key processes and related fields, we have developed a multivariate principle component statistical model to provide a probabilistic summer drought early warning indicator, using the observed or predicted climate conditions in winter and spring on seasonal scale and climate projection for the mid-21stcentury. The summer drought early warning indicator is constructed in a similar way to the NOAA probabilistic predictions that are familiar to water resource managers. The indicator skill is assessed using the standard NOAA climate prediction assessment tools, i.e., the two alternative forced choice (2AFC) and the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC). Comparison with long-term observations suggest that this summer drought early warning indicator is able to capture nearly all the strong summer droughts and outperform the dynamic prediction in this regard over the US Southern Plains. This early warning indicator has been used by the state water agency in May 2014 in briefing the state

  7. Development of Smart Grid for Community and Cyber based Landslide Hazard Monitoring and Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karnawati, D.; Wilopo, W.; Fathani, T. F.; Fukuoka, H.; Andayani, B.

    2012-12-01

    A Smart Grid is a cyber-based tool to facilitate a network of sensors for monitoring and communicating the landslide hazard and providing the early warning. The sensor is designed as an electronic sensor installed in the existing monitoring and early warning instruments, and also as the human sensors which comprise selected committed-people at the local community, such as the local surveyor, local observer, member of the local task force for disaster risk reduction, and any person at the local community who has been registered to dedicate their commitments for sending reports related to the landslide symptoms observed at their living environment. This tool is designed to be capable to receive up to thousands of reports/information at the same time through the electronic sensors, text message (mobile phone), the on-line participatory web as well as various social media such as Twitter and Face book. The information that should be recorded/ reported by the sensors is related to the parameters of landslide symptoms, for example the progress of cracks occurrence, ground subsidence or ground deformation. Within 10 minutes, this tool will be able to automatically elaborate and analyse the reported symptoms to predict the landslide hazard and risk levels. The predicted level of hazard/ risk can be sent back to the network of electronic and human sensors as the early warning information. The key parameters indicating the symptoms of landslide hazard were recorded/ monitored by the electrical and the human sensors. Those parameters were identified based on the investigation on geological and geotechnical conditions, supported with the laboratory analysis. The cause and triggering mechanism of landslide in the study area was also analysed in order to define the critical condition to launch the early warning. However, not only the technical but also social system were developed to raise community awareness and commitments to serve the mission as the human sensors, which will

  8. DISTANT EARLY WARNING SYSTEM for Tsunamis - A wide-area and multi-hazard approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hammitzsch, Martin; Lendholt, Matthias; Wächter, Joachim

    2010-05-01

    The DEWS (Distant Early Warning System) [1] project, funded under the 6th Framework Programme of the European Union, has the objective to create a new generation of interoperable early warning systems based on an open sensor platform. This platform integrates OGC [2] SWE [3] compliant sensor systems for the rapid detection of hazardous events, like earthquakes, sea level anomalies, ocean floor occurrences, and ground displacements in the case of tsunami early warning. Based on the upstream information flow DEWS focuses on the improvement of downstream capacities of warning centres especially by improving information logistics for effective and targeted warning message aggregation for a multilingual environment. Multiple telecommunication channels will be used for the dissemination of warning messages. Wherever possible, existing standards have been integrated. The Command and Control User Interface (CCUI), a rich client application based on Eclipse RCP (Rich Client Platform) [4] and the open source GIS uDig [5], integrates various OGC services. Using WMS (Web Map Service) [6] and WFS (Web Feature Service) [7] spatial data are utilized to depict the situation picture and to integrate a simulation system via WPS (Web Processing Service) [8] to identify affected areas. Warning messages are compiled and transmitted in the OASIS [9] CAP (Common Alerting Protocol) [10] standard together with addressing information defined via EDXL-DE (Emergency Data Exchange Language - Distribution Element) [11]. Internal interfaces are realized with SOAP [12] web services. Based on results of GITEWS [13] - in particular the GITEWS Tsunami Service Bus [14] - the DEWS approach provides an implementation for tsunami early warning systems but other geological paradigms are going to follow, e.g. volcanic eruptions or landslides. Therefore in future also multi-hazard functionality is conceivable. The specific software architecture of DEWS makes it possible to dock varying sensors to the

  9. Definition of rainfall thresholds for shallow landslide early warning in Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cancelliere, A.; Peres, D. J.

    2011-12-01

    Extreme rainfall is the main cause of shallow landslides. For risk mitigation, landslide early warning systems can be implemented, on the basis of rainfall monitoring and forecasting, and the use of a landslide triggering model. Several empirical, also referred to as statistical, rainfall-landslide triggering models have been proposed in the scientific literature, and used for early warning systems activated worldwide. Nonetheless, it is not clear how effective are landslide warning systems, and it is difficult to quantify the induced benefits for the implemented ones. Many rainfall thresholds have been determined through the statistical analysis of the rainfall events that have been the cause of past landslides only, thus neglecting the cases of true negatives and false positives, with negative effects on the robustness of the proposed threshold and, probably, on the effectiveness of the warning system. In the present work we address the issue of establishing warning thresholds, which, although in an approximate way, account for the related benefits. We propose the maximization of an objective function, that measures the trade-off between true and false warning issues. A ratio between the disadvantages of false positive and false negatives, not greater than one, is introduced in the function. The effect of this ratio on the determination of the thresholds is analysed. The proposed method is based on the availability of a continuous rainfall time series. In Italy, continuous rainfall time series are available from the 1920s, but practical difficulties arise for using them, as they are not published in the Hydrological Annual Reports, by the Servizio Idrografico e Mareografico Nazionale (National Hydrologic and Oceanographic Service), the manager of the most important rainfall monitoring network in Italy. However, it is possible to have a good approximation of the most intense rainfall events, in terms total rainfall, by using the data of annual maxima of

  10. Tsunami Early Warning for the Indian Ocean Region - Status and Outlook

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lauterjung, Joern; Rudloff, Alexander; Muench, Ute; Gitews Project Team

    2010-05-01

    The German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) for the Indian Ocean region has gone into operation in Indonesia in November 2008. The system includes a seismological network, together with GPS stations and a network of GPS buoys additionally equipped with ocean bottom pressure sensors and a tide gauge network. The different sensor systems have, for the most part, been installed and now deliver respective data either online or interactively upon request to the Warning Centre in Jakarta. Before 2011, however, the different components requires further optimization and fine tuning, local personnel needs to be trained and eventual problems in the daily operation have to be dealt with. Furthermore a company will be founded in the near future, which will guarantee a sustainable maintenance and operation of the system. This concludes the transfer from a temporarily project into a permanent service. This system established in Indonesia differs from other Tsunami Warning Systems through its application of modern scientific methods and technologies. New procedures for the fast and reliable determination of strong earthquakes, deformation monitoring by GPS, the modeling of tsunamis and the assessment of the situation have been implemented in the Warning System architecture. In particular, the direct incorporation of different sensors provides broad information already at the early stages of Early Warning thus resulting in a stable system and minimizing breakdowns and false alarms. The warning system is designed in an open and modular structure based on the most recent developments and standards of information technology. Therefore, the system can easily integrate additional sensor components to be used for other multi-hazard purposes e.g. meteorological and hydrological events. Up to now the German project group is cooperating in the Indian Ocean region with Sri Lanka, the Maldives, Iran, Yemen, Tanzania and Kenya to set up the equipment primarily for

  11. Safety early warning research for highway construction based on case-based reasoning and variable fuzzy sets.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yan; Yi, Ting-Hua; Xu, Zhen-Jun

    2013-01-01

    As a high-risk subindustry involved in construction projects, highway construction safety has experienced major developments in the past 20 years, mainly due to the lack of safe early warnings in Chinese construction projects. By combining the current state of early warning technology with the requirements of the State Administration of Work Safety and using case-based reasoning (CBR), this paper expounds on the concept and flow of highway construction safety early warnings based on CBR. The present study provides solutions to three key issues, index selection, accident cause association analysis, and warning degree forecasting implementation, through the use of association rule mining, support vector machine classifiers, and variable fuzzy qualitative and quantitative change criterion modes, which fully cover the needs of safe early warning systems. Using a detailed description of the principles and advantages of each method and by proving the methods' effectiveness and ability to act together in safe early warning applications, effective means and intelligent technology for a safe highway construction early warning system are established. PMID:24191134

  12. Safety Early Warning Research for Highway Construction Based on Case-Based Reasoning and Variable Fuzzy Sets

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Yan; Xu, Zhen-Jun

    2013-01-01

    As a high-risk subindustry involved in construction projects, highway construction safety has experienced major developments in the past 20 years, mainly due to the lack of safe early warnings in Chinese construction projects. By combining the current state of early warning technology with the requirements of the State Administration of Work Safety and using case-based reasoning (CBR), this paper expounds on the concept and flow of highway construction safety early warnings based on CBR. The present study provides solutions to three key issues, index selection, accident cause association analysis, and warning degree forecasting implementation, through the use of association rule mining, support vector machine classifiers, and variable fuzzy qualitative and quantitative change criterion modes, which fully cover the needs of safe early warning systems. Using a detailed description of the principles and advantages of each method and by proving the methods' effectiveness and ability to act together in safe early warning applications, effective means and intelligent technology for a safe highway construction early warning system are established. PMID:24191134

  13. The use of passive environmental TLDs in the operation of the Spanish early warning network 'REVIRA'.

    PubMed

    Sáez-Vergara, J C; Romero, A M; Vila Pena, M; Rodriguez, R; Muñiz, J L

    2002-01-01

    As required by different international agreements, the regulatory body in Spain (Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear) implemented in 1992 a national automatic network (REVIRA) that continuously monitors radiation levels in order to give early warning of incidents having potential transboundary implications. The detector for environmental gamma-radiation dose rate is an active instrument based on a Geiger-Müller counter. However, the use of passive environmental dosemeters provides an additional low-cost dose estimate with an independent centralised calibration and even better basic features than active instruments. Since 1999, all 25 REVIRA stations have been monitored with passive TL environmental dosemeters based on LiF:Mg,Cu,P and operated according to the procedures established at Ciemat. This paper presents the obtained results and the further analysis considering differences in aspects such as photon energy response, inherent background or response to cosmic rays. The benefits of the use of passive environmental dosemeters in early warning networks are discussed. PMID:12382745

  14. Recent Advances in Optical Biosensors for Environmental Monitoring and Early Warning

    PubMed Central

    Long, Feng; Zhu, Anna; Shi, Hanchang

    2013-01-01

    The growing number of pollutants requires the development of innovative analytical devices that are precise, sensitive, specific, rapid, and easy-to-use to meet the increasing demand for legislative actions on environmental pollution control and early warning. Optical biosensors, as a powerful alternative to conventional analytical techniques, enable the highly sensitive, real-time, and high-frequency monitoring of pollutants without extensive sample preparation. This article reviews important advances in functional biorecognition materials (e.g., enzymes, aptamers, DNAzymes, antibodies and whole cells) that facilitate the increasing application of optical biosensors. This work further examines the significant improvements in optical biosensor instrumentation and their environmental applications. Innovative developments of optical biosensors for environmental pollution control and early warning are also discussed. PMID:24132229

  15. Codetection of acoustic emissions during failure of heterogeneous media: New perspectives for natural hazard early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Faillettaz, Jerome; Or, Dani; Reiweger, Ingrid

    2016-02-01

    A simple method for real-time early warning of gravity-driven rupture that considers both the heterogeneity of natural media and characteristics of acoustic emissions attenuation is proposed. The method capitalizes on codetection of elastic waves emanating from microcracks by multiple and spatially separated sensors. Event codetection is considered as surrogate for large event size with more frequent codetected events marking imminence of catastrophic failure. Using a spatially explicit fiber bundle numerical model with spatially correlated mechanical strength and two load redistribution rules, we constructed a range of mechanical failure scenarios and associated failure events (mapped into acoustic emission) in space and time. Analysis considering hypothetical arrays of sensors and consideration of signal attenuation demonstrate the potential of the codetection principles even for insensitive sensors to provide early warning for imminent global failure.

  16. Overview and highlights of Early Warning and Crop Condition Assessment project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boatwright, G. O.; Whitehead, V. S.

    1985-01-01

    Work of the Early Warning and Crop Condition Assessment (EW/CCA) project, one of eight projects in the Agriculture and Resources Inventory Surveys Through Aerospace Remote Sensing (AgRISTARS), is reviewed. Its mission, to develop and test remote sensing techniques that enhance operational methodologies for crop condition assessment, was in response to initiatives issued by the Secretary of Agriculture. Meteorologically driven crop stress indicator models have been developed or modified for wheat, maize, grain sorghum, and soybeans. These models provide early warning alerts of potential or actual crop stresses due to water deficits, adverse temperatures, and water excess that could delay planting or harvesting operations. Recommendations are given for future research involving vegetative index numbers and the NOAA and Landsat satellites.

  17. Global early warning systems for natural hazards: systematic and people-centred.

    PubMed

    Basher, Reid

    2006-08-15

    To be effective, early warning systems for natural hazards need to have not only a sound scientific and technical basis, but also a strong focus on the people exposed to risk, and with a systems approach that incorporates all of the relevant factors in that risk, whether arising from the natural hazards or social vulnerabilities, and from short-term or long-term processes. Disasters are increasing in number and severity and international institutional frameworks to reduce disasters are being strengthened under United Nations oversight. Since the Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004, there has been a surge of interest in developing early warning systems to cater to the needs of all countries and all hazards. PMID:16844654

  18. Famine Early Warning Systems and Their Use of Satellite Remote Sensing Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brown, Molly E.; Essam, Timothy; Leonard, Kenneth

    2011-01-01

    Famine early warning organizations have experience that has much to contribute to efforts to incorporate climate and weather information into economic and political systems. Food security crises are now caused almost exclusively by problems of food access, not absolute food availability, but the role of monitoring agricultural production both locally and globally remains central. The price of food important to the understanding of food security in any region, but it needs to be understood in the context of local production. Thus remote sensing is still at the center of much food security analysis, along with an examination of markets, trade and economic policies during food security analyses. Technology including satellite remote sensing, earth science models, databases of food production and yield, and modem telecommunication systems contributed to improved food production information. Here we present an econometric approach focused on bringing together satellite remote sensing and market analysis into food security assessment in the context of early warning.

  19. Detecting early-warning signals for sudden deterioration of complex diseases by dynamical network biomarkers

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Luonan; Liu, Rui; Liu, Zhi-Ping; Li, Meiyi; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    2012-01-01

    Considerable evidence suggests that during the progression of complex diseases, the deteriorations are not necessarily smooth but are abrupt, and may cause a critical transition from one state to another at a tipping point. Here, we develop a model-free method to detect early-warning signals of such critical transitions, even with only a small number of samples. Specifically, we theoretically derive an index based on a dynamical network biomarker (DNB) that serves as a general early-warning signal indicating an imminent bifurcation or sudden deterioration before the critical transition occurs. Based on theoretical analyses, we show that predicting a sudden transition from small samples is achievable provided that there are a large number of measurements for each sample, e.g., high-throughput data. We employ microarray data of three diseases to demonstrate the effectiveness of our method. The relevance of DNBs with the diseases was also validated by related experimental data and functional analysis. PMID:22461973

  20. An online operational rainfall-monitoring resource for epidemic malaria early warning systems in Africa

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grover-Kopec, Emily; Kawano, Mika; Klaver, Robert W.; Blumenthal, Benno; Ceccato, Pietro; Connor, Stephen J.

    2005-01-01

    The Roll Back Malaria Technical Resource Network on Prevention and Control of Epidemics recommended that a simple indicator of changes in epidemic risk in regions of marginal transmission, consisting primarily of rainfall anomaly maps, could provide immediate benefit to early warning efforts. In response to these recommendations, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network produced maps that combine information about dekadal rainfall anomalies, and epidemic malaria risk, available via their Africa Data Dissemination Service. These maps were later made available in a format that is directly compatible with HealthMapper, the mapping and surveillance software developed by the WHO's Communicable Disease Surveillance and Response Department. A new monitoring interface has recently been developed at the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) that enables the user to gain a more contextual perspective of the current rainfall estimates by comparing them to previous seasons and climatological averages. These resources are available at no cost to the user and are updated on a routine basis.

  1. Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil.

    PubMed

    Lowe, Rachel; Coelho, Caio As; Barcellos, Christovam; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Catão, Rafael De Castro; Coelho, Giovanini E; Ramalho, Walter Massa; Bailey, Trevor C; Stephenson, David B; Rodó, Xavier

    2016-01-01

    Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics. PMID:26910315

  2. Implementation of a Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Augmentation to Tsunami Early Warning Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    LaBrecque, John

    2016-04-01

    The Global Geodetic Observing System has issued a Call for Participation to research scientists, geodetic research groups and national agencies in support of the implementation of the IUGG recommendation for a Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Augmentation to Tsunami Early Warning Systems. The call seeks to establish a working group to be a catalyst and motivating force for the definition of requirements, identification of resources, and for the encouragement of international cooperation in the establishment, advancement, and utilization of GNSS for Tsunami Early Warning. During the past fifteen years the populations of the Indo-Pacific region experienced a series of mega-thrust earthquakes followed by devastating tsunamis that claimed nearly 300,000 lives. The future resiliency of the region will depend upon improvements to infrastructure and emergency response that will require very significant investments from the Indo-Pacific economies. The estimation of earthquake moment magnitude, source mechanism and the distribution of crustal deformation are critical to rapid tsunami warning. Geodetic research groups have demonstrated the use of GNSS data to estimate earthquake moment magnitude, source mechanism and the distribution of crustal deformation sufficient for the accurate and timely prediction of tsunamis generated by mega-thrust earthquakes. GNSS data have also been used to measure the formation and propagation of tsunamis via ionospheric disturbances acoustically coupled to the propagating surface waves; thereby providing a new technique to track tsunami propagation across ocean basins, opening the way for improving tsunami propagation models, and providing accurate warning to communities in the far field. These two new advancements can deliver timely and accurate tsunami warnings to coastal communities in the near and far field of mega-thrust earthquakes. This presentation will present the justification for and the details of the GGOS Call for

  3. Evaluation of Golestan Province's Early Warning System for flash floods, Iran, 2006-7.

    PubMed

    Ardalan, Ali; Holakouie Naieni, Kourosh; Kabir, Mohamad-Javad; Zanganeh, Ali-Mohamad; Keshtkar, Abbas-Ali; Honarvar, Mohamad-Reza; Khodaie, Hanieh; Osooli, Mehdi

    2009-05-01

    Golestan province located in NE Iran is well known for deadly flash floods. This study aimed to evaluate the region's Early Warning System (EWS) for flash floods. We used an adapted version of the questionnaire developed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction. We reviewed documents on the EWS of Golestan, and conducted a qualitative study comprising interviews with experts and affected people in Kalaleh and Minoodasht. Results were discussed by an expert panel. Regarding risk knowledge, there was a hazard map at Provincial Disaster Taskforce (PDT) drawn by the provincial Office for Water Resource Management, but no risk analysis was available. Local people were aware of their exposure to flooding, but not aware of the existence of a hazard map and their vulnerability situation. In terms of monitoring and warning, PDT faced serious limitations in issuing Early Warnings, including (1) an inability to make point predictions of rainfall, and (2) the absence of a warning threshold. Dissemination and communication issued by the Meteorological Office followed a top-to-bottom direction. The contents were neither clearly understood by other institutions nor reached the potential recipients within an appropriate time frame. There was a need for a comprehensive response plan with adequate exercises, and no evaluation framework existed. Golestan EWS is in dire need of improvement. To fill in the gaps ensuring local people receive timely warning, we propose a community-based model called "Village Disaster Taskforce" (VDT) in which individual villages act as operational units, but interlinked with other villages and PDT. PMID:19219465

  4. Evaluation of Golestan Province's Early Warning System for flash floods, Iran, 2006-7

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ardalan, Ali; Holakouie Naieni, Kourosh; Kabir, Mohamad-Javad; Zanganeh, Ali-Mohamad; Keshtkar, Abbas-Ali; Honarvar, Mohamad-Reza; Khodaie, Hanieh; Osooli, Mehdi

    2009-05-01

    Golestan province located in NE Iran is well known for deadly flash floods. This study aimed to evaluate the region’s Early Warning System (EWS) for flash floods. We used an adapted version of the questionnaire developed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction. We reviewed documents on the EWS of Golestan, and conducted a qualitative study comprising interviews with experts and affected people in Kalaleh and Minoodasht. Results were discussed by an expert panel. Regarding risk knowledge, there was a hazard map at Provincial Disaster Taskforce (PDT) drawn by the provincial Office for Water Resource Management, but no risk analysis was available. Local people were aware of their exposure to flooding, but not aware of the existence of a hazard map and their vulnerability situation. In terms of monitoring and warning, PDT faced serious limitations in issuing Early Warnings, including (1) an inability to make point predictions of rainfall, and (2) the absence of a warning threshold. Dissemination and communication issued by the Meteorological Office followed a top-to-bottom direction. The contents were neither clearly understood by other institutions nor reached the potential recipients within an appropriate time frame. There was a need for a comprehensive response plan with adequate exercises, and no evaluation framework existed. Golestan EWS is in dire need of improvement. To fill in the gaps ensuring local people receive timely warning, we propose a community-based model called "Village Disaster Taskforce" (VDT) in which individual villages act as operational units, but interlinked with other villages and PDT.

  5. Developing seasonal rainfall scenarios for food security early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Husak, Gregory J.; Funk, Christopher C.; Michaelsen, Joel; Magadzire, Tamuka; Goldsberry, Kirk P.

    2013-10-01

    Rainfed agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for 95 % of the local cereal production, impacting hundreds of millions of people. Early identification of poor rainfall conditions is a critical indicator of food security. As such, monitoring accumulated seasonal rainfall gives an important mid-season estimate of final accumulated totals. However, characterizing the remaining uncertainty in a season has largely been ignored by the food security community. This paper presents a new technique describing rainfall conditions over the duration of a crop-growing cycle by combining estimated rainfall-to-date with potential scenarios for the remaining season based on available satellite rainfall estimates, the common tool for rainfall analysis in Africa. The limited historical record provided by satellite rainfall estimates using previous seasons provides only a coarse view of likely seasonal totals. To combat this, scenarios developed by bootstrapping dekadal data to create synthetic seasons allow for a finer understanding of potential seasonal accumulations. Updating this throughout the season shows a narrowing envelope of seasonal totals, converging on the final seasonal result. The resulting scenarios inform the expectations for the final seasonal rainfall accumulation, allowing analysts to quantify and visualize the uncertainty in seasonal totals. Giving decision makers a tool for understanding the likelihood of specific rainfall amounts provides additional time to enact and mobilize efforts to reduce the impact of agricultural drought.

  6. TOWARD EARLY-WARNING DETECTION OF GRAVITATIONAL WAVES FROM COMPACT BINARY COALESCENCE

    SciTech Connect

    Cannon, Kipp; Cariou, Romain; Chapman, Adrian; Fotopoulos, Nickolas; Privitera, Stephen; Searle, Antony; Singer, Leo; Weinstein, Alan; Crispin-Ortuzar, Mireia; Frei, Melissa; Hanna, Chad; Kara, Erin; Keppel, Drew; Liao, Laura

    2012-04-01

    Rapid detection of compact binary coalescence (CBC) with a network of advanced gravitational-wave detectors will offer a unique opportunity for multi-messenger astronomy. Prompt detection alerts for the astronomical community might make it possible to observe the onset of electromagnetic emission from CBC. We demonstrate a computationally practical filtering strategy that could produce early-warning triggers before gravitational radiation from the final merger has arrived at the detectors.

  7. Monitoring of unstable slopes by MEMS tilting sensors and its application to early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Towhata, I.; Uchimura, T.; Seko, I.; Wang, L.

    2015-09-01

    The present paper addresses the newly developed early warning technology that can help mitigate the slope failure disasters during heavy rains. Many studies have been carried out in the recent times on early warning that is based on rainfall records. Although those rainfall criteria of slope failure tells the probability of disaster on a regional scale, it is difficult for them to judge the risk of particular slopes. This is because the rainfall intensity is spatially too variable to forecast and the early warning based on rainfall alone cannot take into account the effects of local geology, hydrology and topography that vary spatially as well. In this regard, the authors developed an alternative technology in which the slope displacement/deformation is monitored and early warning is issued when a new criterion is satisfied. The new MEMS-based sensor monitors the tilting angle of an instrument that is embedded at a very shallow depth and the record of the tilting angle corresponds to the lateral displacement at the slope surface. Thus, the rate of tilting angle that exceeds a new criterion value implies an imminent slope failure. This technology has been validated against several events of slope failures as well as against a field rainfall test. Those validations have made it possible to determine the criterion value of the rate of tilting angle to be 0.1 degree/hour. The advantage of the MEMS tilting sensor lies in its low cost. Hence, it is possible to install many low-cost sensors over a suspected slope in which the precise range of what is going to fall down during the next rainfall is unknown. In addition to the past validations, this paper also introduces a recent application to a failed slope in the Izu Oshima Island where a heavy rainfall-induced slope failure occurred in October, 2013.

  8. Global Drought Services: Collaborations Toward an Information System for Early Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hayes, M. J.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Svoboda, M.

    2014-12-01

    Drought is a hazard that lends itself well to diligent, sustained monitoring and early warning. However, unlike most hazards, the fact that droughts typically evolve slowly, can last for months or years and cover vast areas spanning multiple political boundaries/jurisdictions and economic sectors can make it a daunting task to monitor, develop plans for, and identify appropriate, proactive mitigation strategies. The National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) and National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) have been working together to reduce societal vulnerability to drought by helping decision makers at all levels to: 1) implement drought early warning/forecasting and decision support systems; 2) support and advocate for better collection of, and understanding of drought impacts; and 3) increase long-term resilience to drought through proactive planning. The NDMC and NIDIS risk management approach has been the basis from which many partners around the world are developing a collaboration and coordination nexus with an ultimate goal of building comprehensive global drought early warning information systems (GDEWIS). The core emphasis of this model is on developing and applying useful and usable information that can be integrated and transferred freely to other regions around the globe. The High-Level Ministerial Declaration on Drought, the Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP) co-led by the WMO and the Global Water Partnership (GWP), and the Global Framework for Climate Services are drawing extensively from the integrated NDMC-NIDIS risk management framework. This presentation will describe, in detail, the various drought resources, tools, services, and collaborations already being provided and undertaken at the national and regional scales by the NDMC, NIDIS, and their partners. The presentation will be forward-looking, identifying improvements in existing and proposed mechanisms to help strengthen national and international drought early

  9. Development of structural health monitoring and early warning system for reinforced concrete system

    SciTech Connect

    Iranata, Data E-mail: data@ce.its.ac.id; Wahyuni, Endah; Murtiadi, Suryawan; Widodo, Amien; Riksakomara, Edwin; Sani, Nisfu Asrul

    2015-04-24

    Many buildings have been damaged due to earthquakes that occurred recently in Indonesia. The main cause of the damage is the large deformation of the building structural component cannot accommodate properly. Therefore, it is necessary to develop the Structural Health Monitoring System (SHMS) to measure precisely the deformation of the building structural component in the real time conditions. This paper presents the development of SHMS for reinforced concrete structural system. This monitoring system is based on deformation component such as strain of reinforcement bar, concrete strain, and displacement of reinforced concrete component. Since the deformation component has exceeded the limit value, the warning message can be sent to the building occupies. This warning message has also can be performed as early warning system of the reinforced concrete structural system. The warning message can also be sent via Short Message Service (SMS) through the Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) network. Hence, the SHMS should be integrated with internet modem to connect with GSM network. Additionally, the SHMS program is verified with experimental study of simply supported reinforced concrete beam. Verification results show that the SHMS has good agreement with experimental results.

  10. Development of structural health monitoring and early warning system for reinforced concrete system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iranata, Data; Wahyuni, Endah; Murtiadi, Suryawan; Widodo, Amien; Riksakomara, Edwin; Sani, Nisfu Asrul

    2015-04-01

    Many buildings have been damaged due to earthquakes that occurred recently in Indonesia. The main cause of the damage is the large deformation of the building structural component cannot accommodate properly. Therefore, it is necessary to develop the Structural Health Monitoring System (SHMS) to measure precisely the deformation of the building structural component in the real time conditions. This paper presents the development of SHMS for reinforced concrete structural system. This monitoring system is based on deformation component such as strain of reinforcement bar, concrete strain, and displacement of reinforced concrete component. Since the deformation component has exceeded the limit value, the warning message can be sent to the building occupies. This warning message has also can be performed as early warning system of the reinforced concrete structural system. The warning message can also be sent via Short Message Service (SMS) through the Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) network. Hence, the SHMS should be integrated with internet modem to connect with GSM network. Additionally, the SHMS program is verified with experimental study of simply supported reinforced concrete beam. Verification results show that the SHMS has good agreement with experimental results.

  11. Methods for detecting early warnings of critical transitions in time series illustrated using simulated ecological data.

    PubMed

    Dakos, Vasilis; Carpenter, Stephen R; Brock, William A; Ellison, Aaron M; Guttal, Vishwesha; Ives, Anthony R; Kéfi, Sonia; Livina, Valerie; Seekell, David A; van Nes, Egbert H; Scheffer, Marten

    2012-01-01

    Many dynamical systems, including lakes, organisms, ocean circulation patterns, or financial markets, are now thought to have tipping points where critical transitions to a contrasting state can happen. Because critical transitions can occur unexpectedly and are difficult to manage, there is a need for methods that can be used to identify when a critical transition is approaching. Recent theory shows that we can identify the proximity of a system to a critical transition using a variety of so-called 'early warning signals', and successful empirical examples suggest a potential for practical applicability. However, while the range of proposed methods for predicting critical transitions is rapidly expanding, opinions on their practical use differ widely, and there is no comparative study that tests the limitations of the different methods to identify approaching critical transitions using time-series data. Here, we summarize a range of currently available early warning methods and apply them to two simulated time series that are typical of systems undergoing a critical transition. In addition to a methodological guide, our work offers a practical toolbox that may be used in a wide range of fields to help detect early warning signals of critical transitions in time series data. PMID:22815897

  12. Application of satellite products and hydrological modelling for flood early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koriche, Sifan A.; Rientjes, Tom H. M.

    2016-06-01

    Floods have caused devastating impacts to the environment and society in Awash River Basin, Ethiopia. Since flooding events are frequent, this marks the need to develop tools for flood early warning. In this study, we propose a satellite based flood index to identify the runoff source areas that largely contribute to extreme runoff production and floods in the basin. Satellite based products used for development of the flood index are CMORPH (Climate Prediction Center MORPHing technique: 0.25° by 0.25°, daily) product for calculation of the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and a Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital elevation model (DEM) for calculation of the Topographic Wetness Index (TWI). Other satellite products used in this study are for rainfall-runoff modelling to represent rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, vegetation cover and topography. Results of the study show that assessment of spatial and temporal rainfall variability by satellite products may well serve in flood early warning. Preliminary findings on effectiveness of the flood index developed in this study indicate that the index is well suited for flood early warning. The index combines SPI and TWI, and preliminary results illustrate the spatial distribution of likely runoff source areas that cause floods in flood prone areas.

  13. Partial discharge early-warning through ultraviolet spectroscopic detection of SO2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Yu; Wang, Xianpei; Dai, Dangdang; Dong, Zhengcheng; Huang, Yunguang

    2014-03-01

    Surveillance of SF6 decomposition products is significant for detection of partial discharge (PD) in gas insulation switchgear (GIS). As a basis in on-site detection and diagnosis, PD early-warning aims to quickly find the abnormalities using a simple and cheap device. In this paper, SO2 is chosen as a feature product and detected through ultraviolet spectroscopy. The derivative method is employed for baseline correction and spectral enhancement. The standard gases of the main decomposition products are qualitatively and quantitatively detected. Then decomposition experiments with different defects are designed to further verify the feasibility. As a stable decomposition product under PD, SO2 is proved to be applicable for PD early-warning in the field. By selecting the appropriate wavelength range, namely 290-310 nm, ultraviolet derivative spectroscopy is sensitive enough to the trace SO2 in the decomposed gas and the interference of other products can be avoided. Fast Fourier transform could be used for feature extraction in qualitative detection. Concentrations of SO2 and other by-products increase with increasing discharge time and could be affected by the discharge energy and PD type. Ultraviolet detection based on SO2 is effective for PD early-warning but the threshold should still be carefully selected in practice.

  14. Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data

    PubMed Central

    Dakos, Vasilis; Carpenter, Stephen R.; Brock, William A.; Ellison, Aaron M.; Guttal, Vishwesha; Ives, Anthony R.; Kéfi, Sonia; Livina, Valerie; Seekell, David A.; van Nes, Egbert H.; Scheffer, Marten

    2012-01-01

    Many dynamical systems, including lakes, organisms, ocean circulation patterns, or financial markets, are now thought to have tipping points where critical transitions to a contrasting state can happen. Because critical transitions can occur unexpectedly and are difficult to manage, there is a need for methods that can be used to identify when a critical transition is approaching. Recent theory shows that we can identify the proximity of a system to a critical transition using a variety of so-called ‘early warning signals’, and successful empirical examples suggest a potential for practical applicability. However, while the range of proposed methods for predicting critical transitions is rapidly expanding, opinions on their practical use differ widely, and there is no comparative study that tests the limitations of the different methods to identify approaching critical transitions using time-series data. Here, we summarize a range of currently available early warning methods and apply them to two simulated time series that are typical of systems undergoing a critical transition. In addition to a methodological guide, our work offers a practical toolbox that may be used in a wide range of fields to help detect early warning signals of critical transitions in time series data. PMID:22815897

  15. Early warning of climate tipping points from critical slowing down: comparing methods to improve robustness

    PubMed Central

    Lenton, T. M.; Livina, V. N.; Dakos, V.; Van Nes, E. H.; Scheffer, M.

    2012-01-01

    We address whether robust early warning signals can, in principle, be provided before a climate tipping point is reached, focusing on methods that seek to detect critical slowing down as a precursor of bifurcation. As a test bed, six previously analysed datasets are reconsidered, three palaeoclimate records approaching abrupt transitions at the end of the last ice age and three models of varying complexity forced through a collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Approaches based on examining the lag-1 autocorrelation function or on detrended fluctuation analysis are applied together and compared. The effects of aggregating the data, detrending method, sliding window length and filtering bandwidth are examined. Robust indicators of critical slowing down are found prior to the abrupt warming event at the end of the Younger Dryas, but the indicators are less clear prior to the Bølling-Allerød warming, or glacial termination in Antarctica. Early warnings of thermohaline circulation collapse can be masked by inter-annual variability driven by atmospheric dynamics. However, rapidly decaying modes can be successfully filtered out by using a long bandwidth or by aggregating data. The two methods have complementary strengths and weaknesses and we recommend applying them together to improve the robustness of early warnings. PMID:22291229

  16. Detecting early-warning signals of critical transitions for complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Luonan

    Considerable evidence suggests that during the progression of complex diseases, the deteriorations are not necessarily smooth but are abrupt, and may cause a critical transition from one state to another at a tipping point. Here, we develop a model-free method to detect early-warning signals of such critical transitions, even with only a small number of samples. Specifically, we theoretically derive an index based on a dynamical network biomarker (DNB) for biological systems or dynamical network marker (DNM) for general systems that serves as a general early-warning signal indicating an imminent bifurcation or sudden deterioration before the critical transition occurs. Based on theoretical analyses, we show that predicting a sudden transition from small samples is achievable provided that there are a large number of measurements for each sample, e.g., high-throughput data. We employ microarray data of three diseases to demonstrate the effectiveness of our method for detecting ''un-occurred'' disease state. The relevance of DNBs with the diseases was also validated by related experimental data and functional analysis. Detecting early-warning signals of critical transitions for complex systems.

  17. An early warning indicator for atmospheric blocking events using transfer operators

    SciTech Connect

    Tantet, Alexis Burgt, Fiona R. van der; Dijkstra, Henk A.

    2015-03-15

    The existence of persistent midlatitude atmospheric flow regimes with time-scales larger than 5–10 days and indications of preferred transitions between them motivates to develop early warning indicators for such regime transitions. In this paper, we use a hemispheric barotropic model together with estimates of transfer operators on a reduced phase space to develop an early warning indicator of the zonal to blocked flow transition in this model. It is shown that the spectrum of the transfer operators can be used to study the slow dynamics of the flow as well as the non-Markovian character of the reduction. The slowest motions are thereby found to have time scales of three to six weeks and to be associated with meta-stable regimes (and their transitions) which can be detected as almost-invariant sets of the transfer operator. From the energy budget of the model, we are able to explain the meta-stability of the regimes and the existence of preferred transition paths. Even though the model is highly simplified, the skill of the early warning indicator is promising, suggesting that the transfer operator approach can be used in parallel to an operational deterministic model for stochastic prediction or to assess forecast uncertainty.

  18. Early-warning signs for pattern-formation in stochastic partial differential equations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gowda, Karna; Kuehn, Christian

    2015-05-01

    There have been significant recent advances in our understanding of the potential use and limitations of early-warning signs for predicting drastic changes, so called critical transitions or tipping points, in dynamical systems. A focus of mathematical modeling and analysis has been on stochastic ordinary differential equations, where generic statistical early-warning signs can be identified near bifurcation-induced tipping points. In this paper, we outline some basic steps to extend this theory to stochastic partial differential equations with a focus on analytically characterizing basic scaling laws for linear SPDEs and comparing the results to numerical simulations of fully nonlinear problems. In particular, we study stochastic versions of the Swift-Hohenberg and Ginzburg-Landau equations. We derive a scaling law of the covariance operator in a regime where linearization is expected to be a good approximation for the local fluctuations around deterministic steady states. We compare these results to direct numerical simulation, and study the influence of noise level, noise color, distance to bifurcation and domain size on early-warning signs.

  19. Including trait-based early warning signals helps predict population collapse

    PubMed Central

    Clements, Christopher F.; Ozgul, Arpat

    2016-01-01

    Foreseeing population collapse is an on-going target in ecology, and this has led to the development of early warning signals based on expected changes in leading indicators before a bifurcation. Such signals have been sought for in abundance time-series data on a population of interest, with varying degrees of success. Here we move beyond these established methods by including parallel time-series data of abundance and fitness-related trait dynamics. Using data from a microcosm experiment, we show that including information on the dynamics of phenotypic traits such as body size into composite early warning indices can produce more accurate inferences of whether a population is approaching a critical transition than using abundance time-series alone. By including fitness-related trait information alongside traditional abundance-based early warning signals in a single metric of risk, our generalizable approach provides a powerful new way to assess what populations may be on the verge of collapse. PMID:27009968

  20. Including trait-based early warning signals helps predict population collapse.

    PubMed

    Clements, Christopher F; Ozgul, Arpat

    2016-01-01

    Foreseeing population collapse is an on-going target in ecology, and this has led to the development of early warning signals based on expected changes in leading indicators before a bifurcation. Such signals have been sought for in abundance time-series data on a population of interest, with varying degrees of success. Here we move beyond these established methods by including parallel time-series data of abundance and fitness-related trait dynamics. Using data from a microcosm experiment, we show that including information on the dynamics of phenotypic traits such as body size into composite early warning indices can produce more accurate inferences of whether a population is approaching a critical transition than using abundance time-series alone. By including fitness-related trait information alongside traditional abundance-based early warning signals in a single metric of risk, our generalizable approach provides a powerful new way to assess what populations may be on the verge of collapse. PMID:27009968

  1. Early warning of climate tipping points from critical slowing down: comparing methods to improve robustness.

    PubMed

    Lenton, T M; Livina, V N; Dakos, V; van Nes, E H; Scheffer, M

    2012-03-13

    We address whether robust early warning signals can, in principle, be provided before a climate tipping point is reached, focusing on methods that seek to detect critical slowing down as a precursor of bifurcation. As a test bed, six previously analysed datasets are reconsidered, three palaeoclimate records approaching abrupt transitions at the end of the last ice age and three models of varying complexity forced through a collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Approaches based on examining the lag-1 autocorrelation function or on detrended fluctuation analysis are applied together and compared. The effects of aggregating the data, detrending method, sliding window length and filtering bandwidth are examined. Robust indicators of critical slowing down are found prior to the abrupt warming event at the end of the Younger Dryas, but the indicators are less clear prior to the Bølling-Allerød warming, or glacial termination in Antarctica. Early warnings of thermohaline circulation collapse can be masked by inter-annual variability driven by atmospheric dynamics. However, rapidly decaying modes can be successfully filtered out by using a long bandwidth or by aggregating data. The two methods have complementary strengths and weaknesses and we recommend applying them together to improve the robustness of early warnings. PMID:22291229

  2. PRESSCA: A regional operative Early Warning System for landslides risk scenario assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ponziani, Francesco; Stelluti, Marco; Berni, Nicola; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso

    2013-04-01

    The Italian national alert system for the hydraulic and hydrogeological risk is ensured by the National Civil Protection Department, through the "Functional Centres" Network, together with scientific/technical Support Centres, named "Competence Centres". The role of the Functional Centres is to alert regional/national civil protection network, to manage the prediction and the monitoring phases, thus ensuring the flow of data for the management of the emergency. The Umbria regional alerting procedure is based on three increasing warning levels of criticality for 6 sub-areas (~1200 km²). Specifically, for each duration (from 1 to 48 hours), three criticality levels are assigned to the rainfall values corresponding to a recurrence interval of 2, 5, and 10 years. In order to improve confidence on the daily work for hydrogeological risk assessment and management, a simple and operational early warning system for the prediction of shallow landslide triggering on regional scale was implemented. The system is primarily based on rainfall thresholds, which represent the main element of evaluation for the early-warning procedures of the Italian Civil Protection system. Following previous studies highlighting that soil moisture conditions play a key role on landslide triggering, a continuous physically-based soil water balance model was implemented for the estimation of soil moisture conditions over the whole regional territory. In fact, a decreasing trend between the cumulated rainfall values over 24, 36 and 48 hours and the soil moisture conditions prior to past landslide events was observed. This trend provides an easy-to-use tool to dynamically adjust the operational rainfall thresholds with the soil moisture conditions simulated by the soil water balance model prior to rainfall events. The application of this procedure allowed decreasing the uncertainties tied to the application of the rainfall thresholds only. The system is actually operational in real-time and it was

  3. Monitoring Regional Forest Disturbances across the US with Near Real Time MODIS NDVI Products included in the ForWarn Forest Threat Early Warning System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spruce, Joseph; Hargrove, William W.; Gasser, Gerald; Norman, Steve

    2013-01-01

    U.S. forests occupy approx.1/3 of total land area (approx. 304 million ha). Since 2000, a growing number of regionally evident forest disturbances have occurred due to abiotic and biotic agents. Regional forest disturbances can threaten human life and property, bio-diversity and water supplies. Timely regional forest disturbance monitoring products are needed to aid forest health management work. Near Real Time (NRT) twice daily MODIS NDVI data provide a means to monitor U.S. regional forest disturbances every 8 days. Since 2010, these NRT forest change products have been produced and posted on the US Forest Service ForWarn Early Warning System for Forest Threats.

  4. Development of empirical relationship between P wave initial slopes and epicentral distance for early warning in South Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jung, S.; Sheen, D. H.

    2015-12-01

    Earthquake early warning aims to rapidly provide the information of an earthquake to minimize earthquake damage. The location accuracy of an earthquake is crucial for the accurate estimation of the source property. While standard location procedure can take the advantages of using combined P-wave and S-wave information, early warning information should be given before arriving S-wave. Odaka et al. (2003) found that P-wave initial slopes decrease almost linearly with increasing epicentral distance and proposed a method for estimating epicentral distance from P-wave initial slope. The early warning system in the Japan Meteorological Agency uses this method for locating an earthquake when only one station triggers. For developing the empirical relationship for earthquake early warning in South Korea, we investigate the relationship from 585 local earthquakes with magnitude larger than 2.0 and 147 regional earthquakes over magnitude 6.0 that occurred in and around the Korean Peninsula from 2005 to 2015.

  5. Experiences integrating autonomous components and legacy systems into tsunami early warning systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reißland, S.; Herrnkind, S.; Guenther, M.; Babeyko, A.; Comoglu, M.; Hammitzsch, M.

    2012-04-01

    Fostered by and embedded in the general development of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) the evolution of Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS) shows a significant development from seismic-centred to multi-sensor system architectures using additional sensors, e.g. sea level stations for the detection of tsunami waves and GPS stations for the detection of ground displacements. Furthermore, the design and implementation of a robust and scalable service infrastructure supporting the integration and utilisation of existing resources serving near real-time data not only includes sensors but also other components and systems offering services such as the delivery of feasible simulations used for forecasting in an imminent tsunami threat. In the context of the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the project Distant Early Warning System (DEWS) a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination has been newly developed and demonstrated. In particular, standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS) have been successfully incorporated. In the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC) new developments are used to extend the existing platform to realise a component-based technology framework for building distributed TEWS. This talk will describe experiences made in GITEWS, DEWS and TRIDEC while integrating legacy stand-alone systems and newly developed special-purpose software components into TEWS using different software adapters and communication strategies to make the systems work together in a corporate infrastructure. The talk will also cover task management and data conversion between the different systems. Practical approaches and software solutions for the integration of sensors, e.g. providing seismic and sea level data, and utilisation of special

  6. Development of an Earthquake Early Warning System Using Real-Time Strong Motion Signals

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Yih-Min; Kanamori, Hiroo

    2008-01-01

    As urbanization progresses worldwide, earthquakes pose serious threat to lives and properties for urban areas near major active faults on land or subduction zones offshore. Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) can be a useful tool for reducing earthquake hazards, if the spatial relation between cities and earthquake sources is favorable for such warning and their citizens are properly trained to respond to earthquake warning messages. An EEW system forewarns an urban area of forthcoming strong shaking, normally with a few sec to a few tens of sec of warning time, i.e., before the arrival of the destructive S-wave part of the strong ground motion. Even a few second of advanced warning time will be useful for pre-programmed emergency measures for various critical facilities, such as rapid-transit vehicles and high-speed trains to avoid potential derailment; it will be also useful for orderly shutoff of gas pipelines to minimize fire hazards, controlled shutdown of high-technological manufacturing operations to reduce potential losses, and safe-guarding of computer facilities to avoid loss of vital databases. We explored a practical approach to EEW with the use of a ground-motion period parameter τc and a high-pass filtered vertical displacement amplitude parameter Pd from the initial 3 sec of the P waveforms. At a given site, an earthquake magnitude could be determined from τc and the peak ground-motion velocity (PGV) could be estimated from Pd. In this method, incoming strong motion acceleration signals are recursively converted to ground velocity and displacement. A P-wave trigger is constantly monitored. When a trigger occurs, τc and Pd are computed. The earthquake magnitude and the on-site ground-motion intensity could be estimated and the warning could be issued. In an ideal situation, such warnings would be available within 10 sec of the origin time of a large earthquake whose subsequent ground motion may last for tens of seconds.

  7. The TRIDEC Project: Future-Saving FOSS GIS Applications for Tsunami Early Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loewe, P.; Wächter, J.; Hammitzsch, M.

    2011-12-01

    The Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 killed over 240,000 people in 14 countries and inundated the affected shorelines with waves reaching heights up to 30m. This natural disaster coincided with an information catastrophy, as potentially life-saving early warning information existed, yet no means were available to deliver it to the communities under imminent threat. Tsunami Early Warning Capabilities have improved in the meantime by continuing development of modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). However, recent tsunami events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key challenge for ongoing TEWS research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of reliable early warning messages. Since 2004, the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CEGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already: The German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS), a European project funded under the sixth Framework Programme (FP6). These developments are continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises) funded under the European Union's seventh Framework Programme (FP7). This ongoing project focuses on real-time intelligent information management in Earth management and its long-term application. All TRIDEC developments are based on Free and Open Source Software (FOSS) components and industry standards where-ever possible. Tsunami Early Warning in TRIDEC is also based on mature system architecture models to ensure long-term usability and the flexibility to adapt to future generations of Tsunami sensors. All open source software produced by the project consortium are foreseen to be published on FOSSLAB, a publicly available

  8. The UNESCO-IOC framework - establishing an international early warning infrastructure in the Indian Ocean region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lauterjung, J.; Koltermann, P.; Wolf, U.; Sopaheluwakan, J.

    2010-12-01

    The Sumatra-Andaman earthquake with a magnitude of 9.3, and the subsequent destructive tsunami which caused more than 225 000 fatalities in the region of the Indian Ocean, happened on 26 December 2004. Less than one month later, the United Nations (UN) World Conference on Disaster Reduction took place in Kobe, Japan to commemorate the 1995 Kobe earthquake. The importance of preparedness and awareness on regional, national and community levels with respect to natural disasters was discussed during this meeting, and resulted in the approval of the Hyogo Declaration on Disaster Reduction. Based on this declaration the UN mandated the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO (United Nations Education, Science and Cultural Organization), taking note of its over 40 years of successful coordination of the Pacific Tsunami Warning System (PTWC), to take on the international coordination of national early-warning efforts for the Indian Ocean and to guide the process of setting up a Regional Tsunami Early Warning System for the Indian Ocean.

  9. Initial steps to the early warning systems in Bulgaria - earthquakes, tsunamis, marine hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ranguelov, Boyko

    2013-04-01

    Several projects on the early warning systems in Bulgaria are presented - some of them in phase of execution, some - in preparation and assessment. The work presents these projects related to the early warning systems (EWS). They are under execution in Bulgaria with wide participation of the international teams. The projects' parameters - partners involved, coordinators, main tasks and objectives, time duration, intended equipment, specific objectives and beneficiaries are discussed. The progress of these projects is presented. The projects themselves - according their acronyms are: MARINEGEOHAZARDS (mainly focused on marine hazards in the Black Sea - earthquakes and tsunamis). DACEA (about possibility of Vrancea seismic source earthquakes to be warned in Bulgaria and Romania). ESNET (about support of decision makers in case of earthquakes and other coastal hazards). SIMORA (about a local monitoring system of strong ground motions and its relevancy to the EWS). A comparison study about the level of reliability and security, as well as, some legislation issues are under investigations. The web-sites and other dissemination tools (like newsletters,webs,etc.) are also under presentation. The goal is to show the specific objectives, their effective execution and the research support to the society and decision makers.

  10. False alarms: How early warning signals falsely predict abrupt sea ice loss

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wagner, Till J. W.; Eisenman, Ian

    2016-04-01

    Uncovering universal early warning signals for critical transitions has become a coveted goal in diverse scientific disciplines, ranging from climate science to financial mathematics. There has been a flurry of recent research proposing such signals, with increasing autocorrelation and increasing variance being among the most widely discussed candidates. A number of studies have suggested that increasing autocorrelation alone may suffice to signal an impending transition, although some others have questioned this. Here we consider variance and autocorrelation in the context of sea ice loss in an idealized model of the global climate system. The model features no bifurcation, nor increased rate of retreat, as the ice disappears. Nonetheless, the autocorrelation of summer sea ice area is found to increase in a global warming scenario. The variance, by contrast, decreases. A simple physical mechanism is proposed to explain the occurrence of increasing autocorrelation but not variance when there is no approaching bifurcation. Additionally, a similar mechanism is shown to allow an increase in both indicators with no physically attainable bifurcation. This implies that relying on autocorrelation and variance as early warning signals can raise false alarms in the climate system, warning of "tipping points" that are not actually there.

  11. Research on early warning technology for spacecraft in-orbit fault influenced by space environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhenyan, Zhao; Ping, Yang; Wendong, Li; Xi, Chen; Peng, Liu; Zhihui, Wang; Zhen, Wu

    2016-07-01

    The number of China's current satellite on orbit is nearly 150. Satellites are often influenced by space environment, and the on-orbit operation tasks are interrupted. Analysis of relevant data and looking for the right warning method become one of the important means, which can ensure the safety of satellite in orbit. Firstly, the data of satellite on-orbit from 2008 to 2015 and space environment are studied. Through the methods of correlation analysis and ratio analysis, we select the sensitive parameters which are more affected by the environment change. Through the analysis of the satellite fault which often happens, we get the location distribution, time distribution of the fault and the characteristic data such as environmental changes. Using the comprehensive factor calculation method, according to environment data and sensitive parameters, data information such as failure characteristics, we calculate the early warning value, which can provide the basis for the spacecraft operation management when the space environment changes. At the same time, we put forward the possible suggestion for space-based early warning information application, and the further suggestion of using sensitive parameter study on space environment change.

  12. An analysis of the early-warning system in emerging markets for reducing the financial crisis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shen, Xiangguang; Song, Xiaozhong

    2009-07-01

    The large number of financial crises in emerging markets over the past ten years has left many observers, both from academia and financial institutions, puzzled by an apparent lack of homogenous causal relations between endogenous economic variables and the bursting of large financial shocks. The frequency of financial crises in the last 20 years can be attributed to the lack of a comprehensive theory of financial regulation to guide policy makers. Existing theories fail to define the range of regulatory models, the causes of regulatory failure, and how to measure and prevent it. Faulty design of regulatory models, and the lack of ongoing performance monitoring incorporating early warning systems, is disrupting economic and social development. The main aim of this article is to propose an early warning system (EWS) which purposes issuing warning signal against the possible financial crisis in the emerging market, and makes the emerging market survived the first wave of the crisis be able to continue their operation in the following years.

  13. Progress on Development of an Earthquake Early Warning System Using Low-Cost Sensors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Yih-Min

    2015-09-01

    Taiwan is one of the leading developers of earthquake early warning (EEW) systems. The Central Weather Bureau has been the primary developer of the EEW system in Taiwan since 1993. In 2010, the National Taiwan University (NTU) developed an EEW system for research purposes using low-cost accelerometers. As of 2014, a total of 506 stations have been deployed and configured. The NTU system can provide earthquake information within 15 s of an earthquake occurrence. Thus, this system may provide early warnings for cities located more than 50 km from the epicenter. Additionally, the NTU system also has an onsite alert function that triggers a warning for incoming P-waves greater than a certain magnitude threshold, thus providing a 2-3 s lead time before peak ground acceleration for regions close to an epicenter. Detailed shaking maps are produced by the NTU system within one or two minutes after an earthquake. Regions of high shaking indicated by the shalking map can indicate locations of damage and casualties and help estimate the damage incurred. The direction of earthquake ruptures are also potentially identified based on detailed shaking maps and strong motion records of the NTU system.

  14. Experimental observation of critical slowing down as an early warning of population collapse

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vorselen, Daan; Dai, Lei; Korolev, Kirill; Gore, Jeff

    2012-02-01

    Near tipping points marking population collapse or other critical transitions in complex systems small changes in conditions can result in drastic shifts in the system state. In theoretical models it is known that early warning signals can be used to predict the approach of these tipping points (bifurcations), but little is known about how these signals can be detected in practice. Here we use the budding yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae to study these early warning signals in controlled experimental populations. We grow yeast in the sugar sucrose, where cooperative feeding dynamics causes a fold bifurcation; falling below a critical population size results in sudden collapse. We demonstrate the experimental observation of an increase in both the size and timescale of the fluctuations of population density near this fold bifurcation. Furthermore, we test the utility of theoretically predicted warning signals by observing them in two different slowly deteriorating environments. These findings suggest that these generic indicators of critical slowing down can be useful in predicting catastrophic changes in population biology.

  15. Development of a consortium for water security and safety: Planning for an early warning system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Clark, R.M.; Adam, N.R.; Atluri, V.; Halem, M.; Vowinkel, E.F.

    2004-01-01

    The events of September 11, 2001 have raised concerns over the safety and security of the Nation's critical infrastructure including water and waste water systems. In June 2002, the U.S. EPA's Region II Office (New York City), in response to concerns over water security, in collaboration with Rutgers University agreed to establish a Regional Drinking Water Security and Safety Consortium (RDWSSC). Members of the consortium include: Rutgers University's Center for Information Management, Integration and Connectivity (CIMIC), American Water (AW), the Passaic Valley Water Commission (PVWC), the North Jersey District Water Supply Commission (NJDWSC), the N.J. Department of Environmental Protection, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agencies, Region II Office. In December of 2002 the consortium members signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to pursue activities to enhance regional water security. Development of an early warning system for source and distributed water was identified as being of primary importance by the consortium. In this context, an early warning system (EWS) is an integrated system of monitoring stations located at strategic points in a water utilities source waters or in its distribution system, designed to warn against contaminants that might threaten the health and welfare of drinking water consumers. This paper will discuss the consortium's progress in achieving these important objectives.

  16. Early Warning Signals for Abrupt Change Raise False Alarm During Sea Ice Loss

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wagner, T. J. W.; Eisenman, I.

    2015-12-01

    Uncovering universal early warning signals for critical transitions has become a coveted goal in diverse scientific disciplines, ranging from climate science to financial mathematics. There has been a flurry of recent research proposing such signals, with increasing autocorrelation and increasing variance being among the most widely discussed candidates. A number of studies have suggested that increasing autocorrelation alone may suffice to signal an impending transition, although some others have questioned this. Here, we consider variance and autocorrelation in the context of sea ice loss in an idealized model of the global climate system. The model features no bifurcation, nor increased rate of retreat, as the ice disappears. Nonetheless, the autocorrelation of summer sea ice area is found to increase with diminishing sea ice cover in a global warming scenario. The variance, by contrast, decreases. A simple physical mechanism is proposed to explain the occurrence of increasing autocorrelation but not variance in the model when there is no approaching bifurcation. Additionally, a similar mechanism is shown to allow an increase in both indicators with no physically attainable bifurcation. This implies that relying on autocorrelation and variance as early warning signals can raise false alarms in the climate system, warning of "tipping points" that are not actually there.

  17. False alarms: How early warning signals falsely predict abrupt sea ice loss

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wagner, Till J. W.; Eisenman, Ian

    2015-12-01

    Uncovering universal early warning signals for critical transitions has become a coveted goal in diverse scientific disciplines, ranging from climate science to financial mathematics. There has been a flurry of recent research proposing such signals, with increasing autocorrelation and increasing variance being among the most widely discussed candidates. A number of studies have suggested that increasing autocorrelation alone may suffice to signal an impending transition, although some others have questioned this. Here we consider variance and autocorrelation in the context of sea ice loss in an idealized model of the global climate system. The model features no bifurcation, nor increased rate of retreat, as the ice disappears. Nonetheless, the autocorrelation of summer sea ice area is found to increase in a global warming scenario. The variance, by contrast, decreases. A simple physical mechanism is proposed to explain the occurrence of increasing autocorrelation but not variance when there is no approaching bifurcation. Additionally, a similar mechanism is shown to allow an increase in both indicators with no physically attainable bifurcation. This implies that relying on autocorrelation and variance as early warning signals can raise false alarms in the climate system, warning of "tipping points" that are not actually there.

  18. Potential economic value of drought information to support early warning in Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quiroga, S.; Iglesias, A.; Diz, A.; Garrote, L.

    2012-04-01

    We present a methodology to estimate the economic value of advanced climate information for food production in Africa under climate change scenarios. The results aim to facilitate better choices in water resources management. The methodology includes 4 sequential steps. First two contrasting management strategies (with and without early warning) are defined. Second, the associated impacts of the management actions are estimated by calculating the effect of drought in crop productivity under climate change scenarios. Third, the optimal management option is calculated as a function of the drought information and risk aversion of potential information users. Finally we use these optimal management simulations to compute the economic value of enhanced water allocation rules to support stable food production in Africa. Our results show how a timely response to climate variations can help reduce loses in food production. The proposed framework is developed within the Dewfora project (Early warning and forecasting systems to predict climate related drought vulnerability and risk in Africa) that aims to improve the knowledge on drought forecasting, warning and mitigation, and advance the understanding of climate related vulnerability to drought and to develop a prototype operational forecasting.

  19. Early warning signs of impending hypoglycaemia masked by post-extraction labial paraesthesia.

    PubMed

    Jowett, N I; Cabot, L B

    1998-07-25

    Temporary lingual and labial paraesthesia are not uncommon following the removal of mandibular third molar teeth. In patients with insulin-treated diabetes circum-oral paraesthesia is a common and important sign of impending hypoglycaemia. This report highlights the case of a 17-year-old girl with Type 1 (insulin-dependent) diabetes who, following the extraction of her four wisdom teeth, experienced minor circum-oral sensory disturbances. These effectively masked her early warning signs of impending hypoglycaemia which had hitherto allowed her to have very good glycaemic control. Trembling, sweating and loss of concentration became the new presenting symptom complex, which she found both disabling and worrying. Fortunately, within six months the paraesthesia had subsided and the patient was once again able to appreciate her usual warning symptom of impending hypoglycaemia. PMID:9718802

  20. "On the Augmented Cognition Approach to Early Warning Systems- Human System Integration NASA Experiance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Achimowicz, Jerzy; Bakowski, Rafal; Mazur, Andrzej

    2014-05-01

    The authors present results related to the implementation of augmented cognition approach to severe weather early warning systems in aviation and aerospace operational environment. The limitations of automation and adaptive approach in severe weather warning systems are discussed. Also the positive impact of HSI (Human System Integration) NASA approach will be shown, in the process of pilot training in minimal weather conditions. The flight safety procedures related to weather conditions will be analyzed and the meteorological general aviation weather support product developed at IMGW will be presented. Special emphasis will be put on the integration of the military and civilian weather radar/lighting detection systems and the impact of space weather on aerospace operations including the use of unmanned RPAS (Remotely Controlled Aircraf Systems). J.Z. Achimowicz is also affiliated with Flight Safety Division of Military Institute of Aviation Medicine, Warsaw, Poland.

  1. Development of an Operational Typhoon Swell Forecasting and Coastal Flooding Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fan, Y. M.; Wu, L. C.; Doong, D. J.; Kao, C. C.; Wang, J. H.

    2012-04-01

    Coastal floods and typhoon swells are a consistent threat to oceanfront countries, causing major human suffering and substantial economic losses, such as wrecks, ship capsized, and marine construction failure, etc. Climate change is exacerbating the problem. An early warning system is essential to mitigate the loss of life and property from coastal flooding and typhoon swells. The purpose of this study is to develop a typhoon swell forecasting and coastal flooding early warning system by integrating existing sea-state monitoring technology, numerical ocean forecasting models, historical database and experiences, as well as computer science. The proposed system has capability offering data for the past, information for the present, and for the future. The system was developed for Taiwanese coast due to its frequent threat by typhoons. An operational system without any manual work is the basic requirement of the system. Integration of various data source is the system kernel. Numerical ocean models play the important role within the system because they provide data for assessment of possible typhoon swell and flooding. The system includes regional wave model (SWAN) which nested with the large domain wave model (NWW III), is operationally set up for coastal waves forecasting, especially typhoon swell forecasting before typhoon coming, and the storm surge predicted by a POM model. Data assimilation technology is incorporated for enhanced accuracy. A warning signal is presented when the storm water level that accumulated from astronomical tide, storm surge, and wave-induced run-up exceeds the alarm sea level. This warning system has been in practical use for coastal flooding damage mitigation in Taiwan for years. Example of the system operation during Typhoon Haitung struck Taiwan in 2005 is illustrated in this study.

  2. Using Earthquake Early Warning in the Bay Area Rapid Transit System (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McPartland, J.

    2013-12-01

    When a major earthquake occurs without warning, the public will have no choice but to REACT to the risks and dangers around them. If earthquake early warning (EEW) can be provided, the public will be able to PROACTIVELY take action to reduce risks and protect themselves and their areas of responsibility. The Bay Area Rapid Transit System (BART) is implementing an earthquake retrofit program designed to keep BART operational after a major seismic event. But a critical component of success depends on BART being able to prevent derailments caused by a major earthquake itself. At peak commute, BART runs 64 trains of 8-10 cars each with as many as 100 or more passengers per car and, most importantly, 40-45% of the trains are moving at top speed, ~70 mph. Were a major earthquake to strike at peak commute without warning, we expect many derailments that would result in mass casualties; the higher the speed- the greater the risk of derailments. To address this critical issue, in August 2012 BART implemented a system based on EEW to slow and stop trains before the earthquake shaking starts. When activated, train speeds drop at 3 mph per second reducing the risk both of derailments and casualties. A 70 mph train can be fully stopped within 25 seconds of early warning. In addition, if BART remains operational with few or no derailments, it can provide critical transportation support to the region for response, supply and evacuation until streets and highways can be reopened. Considerations like these, weighing the cost of casualties and damage against the perspective of mitigating disaster, can help to justify the cost of an EEW system to legislators and the public. The figures presented indicate that the aftermath of an earthquake may be overwhelmingly frightening if we don't act, but can be amazingly good for us if we do plan and act. And the good and bad news is: THE CHOICE IS OURS!

  3. Near-Field Tsunami Early Warning and Preparedeness in the Mediterranean: the EU NEARTOWARN Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papadopoulos, Gerasimos; Karastathis, Vasilis; Novikova, Tatyana; Fokaefs, Anna; Minadakis, George; Papageorgiou, Antonia; Tinti, Stefano; Armigliato, Alberto; Ausilia Paparo, Maria; Zaniboni, Filippo; Georgiou, George; Aniel Quiroga, Inigo; Gonzalez, Mauricio; Alvarez-Gomez, Jose Antonio; Lesne, Olivia; Renou, Camille; Mangin, Antoine; Schindele, Francois; Argyris, Ilias

    2014-05-01

    The Mediterranean Sea region is characterized by near-field tsunamis (travel times less than 30 min.). An efficient end-to-end warning system should fulfill the condition that the time needed from an earthquake detection to evacuation is less than the arrival time of the first wave, which is a very hard task in the Mediterranean. The project NEARTOWARN, which is supported by the EU DG-ECHO prevention program aims, among others, to establish a pilot system in Rhodes island, SE Aegean Sea, Greece, with the purpose to meet needs for local tsunami early warning but applicable in other coastal zones of the Mediterranean and beyond. To minimize emergency time in less than 30 sec, seismic alert devices (SEDs) make the core component of alerting. SEDs are activated and send alerting signals as soon as a P- phase of seismic wave is detected in the near-field domain and for a predetermined threshold of ground motion. Then, emergency starts while SEDs activate remotely other devices, such as computers with data bases of pre-calculated tsunami simulations, surveillance cameras etc. The system is completed with tide- gauges, simulated tsunami scenarios and emergency planning supported by a Geographical Management System. Rhodes island in Dodecanese, Greece, has been selected as a test- area for the development of the prototype system. To promote the future development of such local systems in other coastal zones of the Mediterranean the NEARTOWARN partners review current status of early warning systems, produce digital inventories of wave travel times from several tsunami sources to a number of forecasting points, standardize data bases for pre-simulated tsunami scenarios and optimize triggering thresholds for the SED alerting networks. A local system such as the one developed by NEARTOWARN is expected to function in synergy with national and regional warning systems such as the one coordinated NEAMTWS.

  4. Novel Algorithms Enabling Rapid, Real-Time Earthquake Monitoring and Tsunami Early Warning Worldwide

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lomax, A.; Michelini, A.

    2012-12-01

    We have introduced recently new methods to determine rapidly the tsunami potential and magnitude of large earthquakes (e.g., Lomax and Michelini, 2009ab, 2011, 2012). To validate these methods we have implemented them along with other new algorithms within the Early-est earthquake monitor at INGV-Rome (http://early-est.rm.ingv.it, http://early-est.alomax.net). Early-est is a lightweight software package for real-time earthquake monitoring (including phase picking, phase association and event detection, location, magnitude determination, first-motion mechanism determination, ...), and for tsunami early warning based on discriminants for earthquake tsunami potential. In a simulation using archived broadband seismograms for the devastating M9, 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, Early-est determines: the epicenter within 3 min after the event origin time, discriminants showing very high tsunami potential within 5-7 min, and magnitude Mwpd(RT) 9.0-9.2 and a correct shallow-thrusting mechanism within 8 min. Real-time monitoring with Early-est givess similar results for most large earthquakes using currently available, real-time seismogram data. Here we summarize some of the key algorithms within Early-est that enable rapid, real-time earthquake monitoring and tsunami early warning worldwide: >>> FilterPicker - a general purpose, broad-band, phase detector and picker (http://alomax.net/FilterPicker); >>> Robust, simultaneous association and location using a probabilistic, global-search; >>> Period-duration discriminants TdT0 and TdT50Ex for tsunami potential available within 5 min; >>> Mwpd(RT) magnitude for very large earthquakes available within 10 min; >>> Waveform P polarities determined on broad-band displacement traces, focal mechanisms obtained with the HASH program (Hardebeck and Shearer, 2002); >>> SeisGramWeb - a portable-device ready seismogram viewer using web-services in a browser (http://alomax.net/webtools/sgweb/info.html). References (see also: http

  5. Strong Motion Networks - Rapid Response and Early Warning Applications in Istanbul

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zulfikar, C.; Alcik, H.; Ozel, O.; Erdik, M.

    2009-04-01

    In recent years several strong motion networks have been established in Istanbul with a preparation purpose for future probable earthquake. This study addresses the introduction of current seismic networks and presentation of some recent results recorded in these networks. Istanbul Earthquake Early Warning System Istanbul Earthquake Early Warning System has ten strong motion stations which were installed as close as possible to Marmara Sea main fault zone. Continuous on-line data from these stations via digital radio modem provide early warning for potentially disastrous earthquakes. Considering the complexity of fault rupture and the short fault distances involved, a simple and robust Early Warning algorithm, based on the exceedance of specified threshold time domain amplitude levels is implemented. The current algorithm compares the band-pass filtered accelerations and the cumulative absolute velocity (CAV) with specified threshold levels. Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response System Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response System has one hundred 18 bit-resolution strong motion accelerometers which were placed in quasi-free field locations (basement of small buildings) in the populated areas of the city, within an area of approximately 50x30km, to constitute a network that will enable early damage assessment and rapid response information after a damaging earthquake. Early response information is achieved through fast acquisition and analysis of processed data obtained from the network. The stations are routinely interrogated on regular basis by the main data center. After triggered by an earthquake, each station processes the streaming strong motion data to yield the spectral accelerations at specific periods and sends these parameters in the form of SMS messages at every 20s directly to the main data center through a designated GSM network and through a microwave system. A shake map and damage distribution map (using aggregate building inventories and fragility curves

  6. Failsafe data transfer of important hydrological values for early warning systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klock, E.; Stadler, H.; Pevny, G.; Jakubiec, A.; Skritek, P.

    2009-04-01

    For applications like early warning systems and decision support systems (DSS) for quality monitoring of drinking water, especially from karst aquifers, or for flood forecasting and warning systems it is necessary to transmit important hydrological data, e.g. the gauge height and different quality parameter (e.g. SAC, turbidity) in "near real-time" from a measuring station to a Central Monitoring Station (CMS). Thereby it is very important to guarantee a consistent and failsafe data transfer. These measured values are stored in a data base and can be used for further computations or data can be requested in terms of tables or graphics via the internet. This online monitoring system of important hydrological data works automated and maintenance of the measuring site is economized more and more. A special feature of this early warning systems is the possibility of automated alarm messages by exceeding thresholds, implausible developing of values or other criteria via Email or SMS to specific users or a local service team which can verify the data. In areas with terrestrial infrastructure GPRS (General Packet Radio Service) can be used as transmission medium which enables a fast and cost-efficient transfer of data from the measurement stations to the CMS. One big problem with such terrestrial communication systems is the risk of default when their networks are overloaded, as it can happen during crisis situations (e.g. flood events, thunderstorms). Especially for the surveillance of karst springs it is very important to get data also during times of increased hazards. Therefore it is necessary to have the possibility to transmit the measured values also via communication satellites when a terrestrial infrastructure is not available. The system presented here is a combination of bidirectional data transmission with a terrestrial communication system and a "near real-time" satellite communication by means of low earth orbiting satellites. Typically periodical

  7. Application of SOA (Service Oriented Architecture) in Early Warning Systems for Tsunamis and other Natural Hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lendholt, Matthias; Hammitzsch, Martin; Wächter, Joachim

    2010-05-01

    The DEWS (Distant Early Warning System) [1] project, funded under the 6th Framework Programme of the European Union, has the target to create a new generation of interoperable early warning systems. Two major objectives have steered the development process: usage of free and open source software (FOSS) and compliance to the principles of a Service Oriented Architecture (SOA). The second objective was mainly driven by the superior ambition of the development of a generic early warning framework not only for tsunamis but also for other natural hazards. The development of a reference architecture enforced the clear separation between hazard-specific and generic functionality. Integration of sensor networks was realized with Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) [2] Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) [3] services. Sensor types are relatively specific for different hazard types: while inundation sensors can be used both for tsunami and floodwater hazards, contamination meters requires a complete different semantic integration into the client application. Based on sensor measurements a simulation system supports the operator with forecasts to enable the dissemination of precise warning messages. The simulation integration was realized with the Web Processing Service (WPS) [4] but here again semantic integration is simulation specific and has to be realized inside the client application. In contrast the integration of Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI) via Web Mapping Service (WMS) [5] and Web Feature Service (WFS) [6] to complete the situation report is independent from any hazard type and depends on the data availability and requirements of each warning centre. The downstream component - the message dissemination from the operator via information logistics to the dissemination channel endpoints - has been realized independently from any specific hazard type. Using the Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) [7] and Emergency Data Exchange Language (EDXL) [8] enables the re-usage for all kind

  8. Slope Failure Prediction and Early Warning Awareness Education for Reducing Landslides Casualty in Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koay, S. P.; Tay, L. T.; Fukuoka, H.; Koyama, T.; Sakai, N.; Jamaludin, S. B.; Lateh, H.

    2015-12-01

    Northeast monsoon causes heavy rain in east coast of Peninsular Malaysia from November to March, every year. During this monsoon period, besides the happening of flood along east coast, landslides also causes millions of Malaysian Ringgit economical losses. Hence, it is essential to study the prediction of slope failure to prevent the casualty of landslides happening. In our study, we introduce prediction method of the accumulated rainfall affecting the stability of the slope. If the curve, in the graph, which is presented by rainfall intensity versus accumulated rainfall, crosses over the critical line, the condition of the slope is considered in high risk where the data are calculated and sent from rain gauge in the site via internet. If the possibility of slope failure is going high, the alert message will be sent out to the authorities for decision making on road block or setting the warning light at the road side. Besides road block and warning light, we propose to disseminate short message, to pre-registered mobile phone user, to notify the public for easing the traffic jam and avoiding unnecessary public panic. Prediction is not enough to prevent the casualty. Early warning awareness of the public is very important to reduce the casualty of landslides happening. IT technology does not only play a main role in disseminating information, early warning awareness education, by using IT technology, should be conducted, in schools, to give early warning awareness on natural hazard since childhood. Knowing the pass history on landslides occurrence will gain experience on the landslides happening. Landslides historical events with coordinate information are stored in database. The public can browse these historical events via internet. By referring to such historical landslides events, the public may know where did landslides happen before and the possibility of slope failure occurrence again is considered high. Simulation of rainfall induced slope failure mechanism

  9. Monitoring and Maintenance of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gensch, S.; Günther, M.; Henneberger, R.

    2012-04-01

    This article discusses aspects of and experiences with monitoring and maintenance of the geographically widely distributed components of a Tsunami Early Warning System (TEWS) in the Indian Ocean. Many of the issues, encountered during work within the GITEWS project (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System, Rudloff et al., 2009) on the design and implementation of the monitoring system, are also relevant for other types of warning systems. With this article, insights and lessons learned are shared with the community. Failure to deliver a warning has fatal consequences. Based on an analysis of the criticalness, vulnerability and availability of single components, we describe the design and implementation of a communication and monitoring architecture and development of standard operating procedures (SOP) for maintenance (Communication architecture of an early warning system, Angermann et al., 2010). The GITEWS project is composed of several thousand integrated system components and software processes. During the establishment of the currently existing system, complexity grew and monitoring and maintenance needed further automation to capture any critical states of the whole system and to establish the correct responsive means. One means of monitoring is the use of an adapted Nagios monitoring implementation covering a large number of infrastructure assets (hosts, network components, remote sensor stations, storage) and business processes (processes and applications). This is to be extended in the future for further operational monitoring of station parameters (power voltage, battery levels) with the challenge of monitoring in on- and offline modes. An aspect of maintenance is the development of a practical and precise means of documenting all system properties. Providing a platform for continuous documentation of system changes and maintenance and enabling information-exchange/ collaboration between the different responsible institutions, departments and

  10. A study of the early warning signals of abrupt change in the Pacific decadal oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Hao; Hou, Wei; Yan, Peng-Cheng; Zhang, Zhi-Sen; Wang, Kuo

    2015-08-01

    In recent years, the phenomenon of a critical slowing down has demonstrated its major potential in discovering whether a complex dynamic system tends to abruptly change at critical points. This research on the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) index has been made on the basis of the critical slowing down principle in order to analyze its early warning signal of abrupt change. The chaotic characteristics of the PDO index sequence at different times are determined by using the largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE). The relationship between the regional sea surface temperature (SST) background field and the early warning signal of the PDO abrupt change is further studied through calculating the variance of the SST in the PDO region and the spatial distribution of the autocorrelation coefficient, thereby providing the experimental foundation for the extensive application of the method of the critical slowing down phenomenon. Our results show that the phenomenon of critical slowing down, such as the increase of the variance and autocorrelation coefficient, will continue for six years before the abrupt change of the PDO index. This phenomenon of the critical slowing down can be regarded as one of the early warning signals of an abrupt change. Through calculating the LLE of the PDO index during different times, it is also found that the strongest chaotic characteristics of the system occurred between 1971 and 1975 in the early stages of an abrupt change (1976), and the system was at the stage of a critical slowing down, which proves the reliability of the early warning signal of abrupt change discovered in 1970 from the mechanism. In addition, the variance of the SST, along with the spatial distribution of the autocorrelation coefficient in the corresponding PDO region, also demonstrates the corresponding relationship between the change of the background field of the SST and the change of the PDO. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos

  11. Multi-model data fusion to improve an early warning system for hypo-/hyperglycemic events.

    PubMed

    Botwey, Ransford Henry; Daskalaki, Elena; Diem, Peter; Mougiakakou, Stavroula G

    2014-01-01

    Correct predictions of future blood glucose levels in individuals with Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) can be used to provide early warning of upcoming hypo-/hyperglycemic events and thus to improve the patient's safety. To increase prediction accuracy and efficiency, various approaches have been proposed which combine multiple predictors to produce superior results compared to single predictors. Three methods for model fusion are presented and comparatively assessed. Data from 23 T1D subjects under sensor-augmented pump (SAP) therapy were used in two adaptive data-driven models (an autoregressive model with output correction - cARX, and a recurrent neural network - RNN). Data fusion techniques based on i) Dempster-Shafer Evidential Theory (DST), ii) Genetic Algorithms (GA), and iii) Genetic Programming (GP) were used to merge the complimentary performances of the prediction models. The fused output is used in a warning algorithm to issue alarms of upcoming hypo-/hyperglycemic events. The fusion schemes showed improved performance with lower root mean square errors, lower time lags, and higher correlation. In the warning algorithm, median daily false alarms (DFA) of 0.25%, and 100% correct alarms (CA) were obtained for both event types. The detection times (DT) before occurrence of events were 13.0 and 12.1 min respectively for hypo-/hyperglycemic events. Compared to the cARX and RNN models, and a linear fusion of the two, the proposed fusion schemes represents a significant improvement. PMID:25571076

  12. Operational early warning of shallow landslides in Norway: Evaluation of landslide forecasts and associated challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dahl, Mads-Peter; Colleuille, Hervé; Boje, Søren; Sund, Monica; Krøgli, Ingeborg; Devoli, Graziella

    2015-04-01

    The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) runs a national early warning system (EWS) for shallow landslides in Norway. Slope failures included in the EWS are debris slides, debris flows, debris avalanches and slush flows. The EWS has been operational on national scale since 2013 and consists of (a) quantitative landslide thresholds and daily hydro-meteorological prognosis; (b) daily qualitative expert evaluation of prognosis / additional data in decision to determine warning levels; (c) publication of warning levels through various custom build internet platforms. The effectiveness of an EWS depends on both the quality of forecasts being issued, and the communication of forecasts to the public. In this analysis a preliminary evaluation of landslide forecasts from the Norwegian EWS within the period 2012-2014 is presented. Criteria for categorizing forecasts as correct, missed events or false alarms are discussed and concrete examples of forecasts falling into the latter two categories are presented. The evaluation show a rate of correct forecasts exceeding 90%. However correct forecast categorization is sometimes difficult, particularly due to poorly documented landslide events. Several challenges has to be met in the process of further lowering rates of missed events of false alarms in the EWS. Among others these include better implementation of susceptibility maps in landslide forecasting, more detailed regionalization of hydro-meteorological landslide thresholds, improved prognosis on precipitation, snowmelt and soil water content as well as the build-up of more experience among the people performing landslide forecasting.

  13. Exploring the feasibility of a nationwide earthquake early warning system in Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Picozzi, M.; Zollo, A.; Brondi, P.; Colombelli, S.; Elia, L.; Martino, C.

    2015-04-01

    When accompanied by appropriate training and preparedness of a population, Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS) are effective and viable tools for the real-time reduction of societal exposure to seismic events in metropolitan areas. The Italian Accelerometric Network, RAN, which consists of about 500 stations installed over all the active seismic zones, as well as many cities and strategic infrastructures in Italy, has the potential to serve as a nationwide early warning system. In this work, we present a feasibility study for a nationwide EEWS in Italy obtained by the integration of the RAN and the software platform PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem (PRESTo). The performance of the RAN-PRESTo EEWS is first assessed by testing it on real strong motion recordings of 40 of the largest earthquakes that have occurred during the last 10 years in Italy. Furthermore, we extend the analysis to regions that did not experience earthquakes by considering a nationwide grid of synthetic sources capable of generating Gutenberg-Richter sequences corresponding to the one adopted by the seismic hazard map of the Italian territory. Our results indicate that the RAN-PRESTo EEWS could theoretically provide for higher seismic hazard areas reliable alert messages within about 5 to 10 s and maximum lead times of about 25 s. In case of large events (M > 6.5), this amount of lead time would be sufficient for taking basic protective measures (e.g., duck and cover, move away from windows or equipment) in tens to hundreds of municipalities affected by large ground shaking.

  14. A Local and Regional Tsunami Early Warning System for New Zealand: A feasibility study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Müller, Christof; Kaneko, Yoshihiro; D'Anastasio, Elisabetta; Wang, Xiaoming; Wang, Rongjiang; Zhang, Yong; Ristau, John; Benites, Rafael; Salichon, Jerome; Fournier, Nico; Fry, Bill; Holden, Caroline; Power, William; Gledhill, Ken

    2015-04-01

    Local tsunami mitigation in New Zealand is based on self evacuation following long-duration or intense ground motions. Slow-rupturing 'tsunami earthquakes', as have occurred historically on the Hikurangi margin (1880 and twice in 1947), might not be felt strongly enough to trigger self evacuation. Slip kinematics and distribution influence tsunami propagation and inundation patterns significantly. To establish an effective early warning system for such events, rapid inversion is needed to resolve these earthquake source parameters. We will give an update on recent results from on-going efforts at GNS Science in collaboration with international partners to assess the feasibility of implementing a local tsunami early warning system targeting 'Tsunami Earthquakes' in New Zealand. We performed simulations of kinematic and static surface displacements for a scenario event similar to the March 1947 tsunami earthquake. The created data sets are used to assess the detection capabilities of and potential required updates to the New Zealand seismic and geodetic sensor network (GeoNet). A suite of detection, classification and inversion algorithms has been tested with the simulated data. Our findings indicate that an event similar to the 1947 Gisborne Tsunami Earthquake could be classified as potentially tsunamigenic from seismic data alone. It also should be detectable and classifiable by the geodetic network in real time. However, a combination of kinematic and static deformation (seismic and geodetic) data is required to drive a full rapid detection, classification and inversion algorithm chain. For an operational early warning system to be implemented a large portion of the geodetic sensor network needs to be upgraded to stream data in real time to GeoNet.

  15. A Risk-Based Multi-Objective Optimization Concept for Early-Warning Monitoring Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bode, F.; Loschko, M.; Nowak, W.

    2014-12-01

    Groundwater is a resource for drinking water and hence needs to be protected from contaminations. However, many well catchments include an inventory of known and unknown risk sources which cannot be eliminated, especially in urban regions. As matter of risk control, all these risk sources should be monitored. A one-to-one monitoring situation for each risk source would lead to a cost explosion and is even impossible for unknown risk sources. However, smart optimization concepts could help to find promising low-cost monitoring network designs.In this work we develop a concept to plan monitoring networks using multi-objective optimization. Our considered objectives are to maximize the probability of detecting all contaminations and the early warning time and to minimize the installation and operating costs of the monitoring network. A qualitative risk ranking is used to prioritize the known risk sources for monitoring. The unknown risk sources can neither be located nor ranked. Instead, we represent them by a virtual line of risk sources surrounding the production well.We classify risk sources into four different categories: severe, medium and tolerable for known risk sources and an extra category for the unknown ones. With that, early warning time and detection probability become individual objectives for each risk class. Thus, decision makers can identify monitoring networks which are valid for controlling the top risk sources, and evaluate the capabilities (or search for least-cost upgrade) to also cover moderate, tolerable and unknown risk sources. Monitoring networks which are valid for the remaining risk also cover all other risk sources but the early-warning time suffers.The data provided for the optimization algorithm are calculated in a preprocessing step by a flow and transport model. Uncertainties due to hydro(geo)logical phenomena are taken into account by Monte-Carlo simulations. To avoid numerical dispersion during the transport simulations we use the

  16. The GNSS-based component for the new Indonesian tsunami early warning centre provided by GITEWS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Falck, C.; Ramatschi, M.; Bartsch, M.; Merx, A.; Hoeberechts, J.; Rothacher, M.

    2009-04-01

    Introduction Nowadays GNSS technologies are used for a large variety of precise positioning applications. The accuracy can reach the mm level depending on the data analysis methods. GNSS technologies thus offer a high potential to support tsunami early warning systems, e.g., by detection of ground motions due to earthquakes and of tsunami waves on the ocean by GNSS instruments on a buoy. Although GNSS-based precise positioning is a standard method, it is not yet common to apply this technique under tight time constraints and, hence, in the absence of precise satellite orbits and clocks. The new developed GNSS-based component utilises on- and offshore measured GNSS data and is the first system of its kind that was integrated into an operational early warning system. (Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning Centre INATEWS, inaugurated at BMKG, Jakarta on November, 11th 2008) Motivation After the Tsunami event of 26th December 2004 the German government initiated the GITEWS project (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) to develop a tsunami early warning system for Indonesia. The GFZ Potsdam (German Research Centre for Geosciences) as the consortial leader of GITEWS also covers several work packages, most of them related to sensor systems. The geodetic branch (Department 1) of the GFZ was assigned to develop a GNSS-based component. Brief system description The system covers all aspects from sensor stations with new developed hard- and software designs, manufacturing and installation of stations, real-time data transfer issues, a new developed automatic near real-time data processing and a graphical user interface for early warning centre operators including training on the system. GNSS sensors are installed on buoys, at tide gauges and as real-time reference stations (RTR stations), either stand-alone or co-located with seismic sensors. The GNSS data are transmitted to the warning centre where they are processed in a near real-time data processing chain. For

  17. Dengue disease outbreak definitions are implicitly variable

    PubMed Central

    Brady, Oliver J.; Smith, David L.; Scott, Thomas W.; Hay, Simon I.

    2015-01-01

    Infectious diseases rarely exhibit simple dynamics. Outbreaks (defined as excess cases beyond response capabilities) have the potential to cause a disproportionately high burden due to overwhelming health care systems. The recommendations of international policy guidelines and research agendas are based on a perceived standardised definition of an outbreak characterised by a prolonged, high-caseload, extra-seasonal surge. In this analysis we apply multiple candidate outbreak definitions to reported dengue case data from Brazil to test this assumption. The methods identify highly heterogeneous outbreak characteristics in terms of frequency, duration and case burden. All definitions identify outbreaks with characteristics that vary over time and space. Further, definitions differ in their timeliness of outbreak onset, and thus may be more or less suitable for early intervention. This raises concerns about the application of current outbreak guidelines for early warning/identification systems. It is clear that quantitatively defining the characteristics of an outbreak is an essential prerequisite for effective reactive response. More work is needed so that definitions of disease outbreaks can take into account the baseline capacities of treatment, surveillance and control. This is essential if outbreak guidelines are to be effective and generalisable across a range of epidemiologically different settings. PMID:25979287

  18. Application of collocated GPS and seismic sensors to earthquake monitoring and early warning.

    PubMed

    Li, Xingxing; Zhang, Xiaohong; Guo, Bofeng

    2013-01-01

    We explore the use of collocated GPS and seismic sensors for earthquake monitoring and early warning. The GPS and seismic data collected during the 2011 Tohoku-Oki (Japan) and the 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah (Mexico) earthquakes are analyzed by using a tightly-coupled integration. The performance of the integrated results is validated by both time and frequency domain analysis. We detect the P-wave arrival and observe small-scale features of the movement from the integrated results and locate the epicenter. Meanwhile, permanent offsets are extracted from the integrated displacements highly accurately and used for reliable fault slip inversion and magnitude estimation. PMID:24284765

  19. Mapping Historic Gypsy Moth Defoliation with MODIS Satellite Data: Implications for Forest Threat Early Warning System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spurce, Joseph P.; Hargrove, William; Ryan, Robert E.; Smooth, James C.; Prados, Don; McKellip, Rodney; Sader, Steven A.; Gasser, Jerry; May, George

    2008-01-01

    This viewgraph presentation reviews a project, the goal of which is to study the potential of MODIS data for monitoring historic gypsy moth defoliation. A NASA/USDA Forest Service (USFS) partnership was formed to perform the study. NASA is helping USFS to implement satellite data products into its emerging Forest Threat Early Warning System. The latter system is being developed by the USFS Eastern and Western Forest Threat Assessment Centers. The USFS Forest Threat Centers want to use MODIS time series data for regional monitoring of forest damage (e.g., defoliation) preferably in near real time. The study's methodology is described, and the results of the study are shown.

  20. Implementation of a Pediatric Early Warning Scoring System at an Academic Medical Center.

    PubMed

    Douglas, Kimberly; Collado, Jerry Christopher; Keller, Sheila

    2016-01-01

    Despite the addition of family-activated rapid response to the rapid response team algorithm, a children's hospital did not see an increase in utilization of the pediatric rapid response team. A Pediatric Early Warning Score in non-ICU pediatric inpatient units was implemented to increase the number of rapid response team activations. A retrospective review of the 130-bed facility, over a 12-month period, revealed an increase in pediatric rapid response calls, with a subsequent decrease in code team activations. The authors outline implementation strategies and discuss barriers encountered throughout the process, along with implications for nurse leaders. PMID:27575799

  1. Application of Collocated GPS and Seismic Sensors to Earthquake Monitoring and Early Warning

    PubMed Central

    Li, Xingxing; Zhang, Xiaohong; Guo, Bofeng

    2013-01-01

    We explore the use of collocated GPS and seismic sensors for earthquake monitoring and early warning. The GPS and seismic data collected during the 2011 Tohoku-Oki (Japan) and the 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah (Mexico) earthquakes are analyzed by using a tightly-coupled integration. The performance of the integrated results is validated by both time and frequency domain analysis. We detect the P-wave arrival and observe small-scale features of the movement from the integrated results and locate the epicenter. Meanwhile, permanent offsets are extracted from the integrated displacements highly accurately and used for reliable fault slip inversion and magnitude estimation. PMID:24284765

  2. Linear stability theory as an early warning sign for transitions in high dimensional complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piovani, Duccio; Grujić, Jelena; Jeldtoft Jensen, Henrik

    2016-07-01

    We analyse in detail a new approach to the monitoring and forecasting of the onset of transitions in high dimensional complex systems by application to the Tangled Nature model of evolutionary ecology and high dimensional replicator systems with a stochastic element. A high dimensional stability matrix is derived in the mean field approximation to the stochastic dynamics. This allows us to determine the stability spectrum about the observed quasi-stable configurations. From overlap of the instantaneous configuration vector of the full stochastic system with the eigenvectors of the unstable directions of the deterministic mean field approximation, we are able to construct a good early-warning indicator of the transitions occurring intermittently.

  3. Probabilistic and Evolutionary Early Warning System: concepts, performances, and case-studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zollo, A.; Emolo, A.; Colombelli, S.; Elia, L.; Festa, G.; Martino, C.; Picozzi, M.

    2013-12-01

    PRESTo (PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem) is a software platform for Earthquake Early Warning that integrates algorithms for real-time earthquake location, magnitude estimation and damage assessment into a highly configurable and easily portable package. In its regional configuration, the software processes, in real-time, the 3-component acceleration data streams coming from seismic stations, for P-waves arrival detection and, in the case a quite large event is occurring, can promptly performs event detection and location, magnitude estimation and peak ground-motion prediction at target sites. The regional approach has been integrated with a threshold-based early warning method that allows, in the very first seconds after a moderate-to-large earthquake, to identify the most Probable Damaged Zone starting from the real-time measurement at near-source stations located at increasing distances from the earthquake epicenter, of the peak displacement (Pd) and predominant period of P-waves (τc), over a few-second long window after the P-wave arrival. Thus, each recording site independently provides an evolutionary alert level, according to the Pd and τc it measured, through a decisional table. Since 2009, PRESTo has been under continuous real-time testing using data streaming from the Iripinia Seismic Network (Southern Italy) and has produced a bulletin of some hundreds low magnitude events, including all the M≥2.5 earthquakes occurred in that period in Irpinia. Recently, PRESTo has been also implemented at the accelerometric network and broad-band networks in South Korea and in Romania, and off-line tested in Iberian Peninsula, in Turkey, in Israel, and in Japan. The feasibility of an Early Warning System at national scale, is currently under testing by studying the performances of the PRESTo platform for the Italian Accelerometric Network. Moreover, PRESTo is under experimentation in order to provide alert in a high-school located in the

  4. Landslide monitoring and early warning systems in Lower Austria - current situation and new developments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thiebes, Benni; Glade, Thomas; Schweigl, Joachim; Jäger, Stefan; Canli, Ekrem

    2014-05-01

    Landslides represent significant hazards in the mountainous areas of Austria. The Regional Geological Surveys are responsible to inform and protect the population, and to mitigate damage to infrastructure. Efforts of the Regional Geological Survey of Lower Austria include detailed site investigations, the planning and installation of protective structures (e.g. rock fall nets) as well as preventive measures such as regional scale landslide susceptibility assessments. For potentially endangered areas, where protection works are not feasible or would simply be too costly, monitoring systems have been installed. However, these systems are dominantly not automatic and require regular field visits to take measurements. Therefore, it is difficult to establish any relation between initiating and controlling factors, thus to fully understand the underlying process mechanism which is essential for any early warning system. Consequently, the implementation of new state-of-the-art monitoring and early warning systems has been started. In this presentation, the design of four landslide monitoring and early warning systems is introduced. The investigated landslide process types include a deep-seated landslide, a rock fall site, a complex earth flow, and a debris flow catchment. The monitoring equipment was chosen depending on the landslide processes and their activity. It aims to allow for a detailed investigation of process mechanisms in relation to its triggers and for reliable prediction of future landslide activities. The deep-seated landslide will be investigated by manual and automatic inclinometers to get detailed insights into subsurface displacements. In addition, TDR sensors and a weather station will be employed to get a better understanding on the influence of rainfall on sub-surface hydrology. For the rockfall site, a wireless sensor network will be installed to get real-time information on acceleration and inclination of potentially unstable blocks. The movement

  5. Simulating Earthquake Early Warning Systems in the Classroom as a New Approach to Teaching Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Alessio, M. A.

    2010-12-01

    A discussion of P- and S-waves seems an ubiquitous part of studying earthquakes in the classroom. Textbooks from middle school through university level typically define the differences between the waves and illustrate the sense of motion. While many students successfully memorize the differences between wave types (often utilizing the first letter as a memory aide), textbooks rarely give tangible examples of how the two waves would "feel" to a person sitting on the ground. One reason for introducing the wave types is to explain how to calculate earthquake epicenters using seismograms and travel time charts -- very abstract representations of earthquakes. Even when the skill is mastered using paper-and-pencil activities or one of the excellent online interactive versions, locating an epicenter simply does not excite many of our students because it evokes little emotional impact, even in students located in earthquake-prone areas. Despite these limitations, huge numbers of students are mandated to complete the task. At the K-12 level, California requires that all students be able to locate earthquake epicenters in Grade 6; in New York, the skill is a required part of the Regent's Examination. Recent innovations in earthquake early warning systems around the globe give us the opportunity to address the same content standard, but with substantially more emotional impact on students. I outline a lesson about earthquakes focused on earthquake early warning systems. The introductory activities include video clips of actual earthquakes and emphasize the differences between the way P- and S-waves feel when they arrive (P arrives first, but is weaker). I include an introduction to the principle behind earthquake early warning (including a summary of possible uses of a few seconds warning about strong shaking) and show examples from Japan. Students go outdoors to simulate P-waves, S-waves, and occupants of two different cities who are talking to one another on cell phones

  6. Climate Change Implications and Use of Early Warning Systems for Global Dust Storms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harriman, L.

    2014-12-01

    Increased changes in land cover and global climate have led to increased frequency and/or intensity of dust storms in some regions of the world. Early detection and warning of dust storms, in conjunction with effective and widespread information broadcasts, will be essential to the prevention and mitigation of future risks and impacts to people and the environment. Since frequency and intensity of dust storms can vary from region to region, there is a demonstrated need for more research to be conducted over longer periods of time to analyze trends of dust storm events [1]. Dust storms impact their origin area, but also land, water and people a great distance away from where dust finally settles [2, 3]. These transboundary movements and accompanying impacts further warrant the need for global collaboration to help predict the onset, duration and path of a dust storm. Early warning systems can help communicate when a dust storm is occurring, the projected intensity of the dust storm and its anticipated physical impact over a particular geographic area. Development of regional dust storm models, such as CUACE/Dust for East Asia, and monitoring networks, like the Sand and Dust Storm Warning Network operated by the World Meteorological Organization, and the use of remote sensing and satellite imagery derived products [4], including MODIS, are currently being incorporated into early warning and monitoring initiatives. However, to increase future certainty of impacts of dust storms on vulnerable populations and ecosystems, more research is needed to analyze the influences of human activities, seasonal variations and long-term climatic patterns on dust storm generation, movement and impact. Sources: [1] Goudie, A.S. (2009), Dust storms: recent developments, J Environ. Manage., 90. [2] Lee, H., and Liu, C. (2004), Coping with dust storm events: information, impacts, and policymaking in Taiwan, TAO, 15(5). [3] Marx, S.K., McGowan, H.A., and Balz, K.S. (2009), Long-range dust

  7. The Early-Warning System for incoming storm surge and tide in the Republic of Mauritius

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bogaard, Tom; de Lima Rego, Joao; Vatvani, Deepak; Virasami, Renganaden; Verlaan, Martin

    2016-04-01

    The Republic of Mauritius (ROM) is a group of islands in the South West of the Indian Ocean, consisting of the main islands of Mauritius, Rodrigues and Agalega and the archipelago of Saint Brandon. The ROM is particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, especially in the coastal zone, where a convergence of accelerating sea level rise and increasing intensity of tropical cyclones is expected to result in considerable economic loss, humanitarian stresses, and environmental degradation. Storm surges and swell waves are expected to be aggravated through sea level rise and climate change effects on weather patterns. Adaptation to increased vulnerability requires a re-evaluation of existing preparedness measures. The focus of this project is on more effective preparedness and issuing of alerts developing a fully-automated Early-Warning System for incoming storm surge and tide, together with the Mauritius Meteorological Services and the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Centre (NDRRMC), such that coastal communities in Mauritius, Rodrigues and Agalega Islands are able to evacuate timely and safely in case of predicted extreme water levels. The Mauritius Early-Warning System for storm surge and tide was implemented using software from Deltares' Open-Source and free software Community. A set of five depth-averaged Delft3D-FLOW hydrodynamic models are run every six-hours with a forecast horizon of three days, simulating water levels along the coast of the three main islands. Two regional models of horizontal resolution 5km force the three detailed models of 500m resolution; all models are forced at the surface by the 0.25° NOAA/GFS meteorological forecasts. In addition, our Wind-Enhancement Scheme is used to blend detailed cyclone track bulletin's info with the larger-scale Numerical Weather Predictions. Measured data is retrieved near real-time from available Automatic Weather Stations. All these workflows are managed by the operational

  8. The G-FAST Geodetic Earthquake Early Warning System: Operational Performance and Synthetic Testing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crowell, B. W.; Schmidt, D. A.; Bodin, P.; Vidale, J. E.; Melbourne, T. I.; Santillan, V. M.

    2015-12-01

    The G-FAST (Geodetic First Approximation of Size and TIming) earthquake early warning module is part of a joint seismic and geodetic earthquake early warning system currently under development at the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network (PNSN). Our two-stage approach to earthquake early warning includes: (1) initial detection and characterization from PNSN strong-motion and broadband data with the ElarmS package within ShakeAlert, and then (2) modeling of GPS data from the Pacific Northwest Geodetic Array (PANGA). The two geodetic modeling modules are (1) a fast peak-ground-displacement magnitude and depth estimate and (2) a CMT-based finite fault inversion that utilizes coseismic offsets to compute earthquake extent, slip and magnitude. The seismic and geodetic source estimates are then combined in a decision module currently under development. In this presentation, we first report on the operational performance during the first several months that G-FAST has been live with respect to magnitude estimates, timing information, and stability. Secondly, we report on the performance of the G-FAST test system using simulated displacements from plausible Cascadian earthquake scenarios. The test system permits us to: (1) replay segments of actual seismic waveform data recorded from the PNSN and neighboring networks to investigate both earthquakes and noise conditions, and (2) broadcast synthetic data into the system to simulate signals we anticipate from earthquakes for which we have no actual ground motion recordings. The test system lets us also simulate various error conditions (latent and/or out-of-sequence data, telemetry drop-outs, etc.) in order to explore how best to mitigate them. For example, we show for a replay of the 2001 M6.8 Nisqually earthquake that telemetry drop-outs create the largest variability and biases in magnitude and depth estimates whereas latency only causes some variability towards the beginning of the recordings before quickly stabilizing

  9. The Role of Real-Time GNSS in Tsunami Early Warning and Hazard Mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goldberg, D.; Bock, Y.; Geng, J.; Melgar, D.; Saunders, J. K.; Haase, J. S.

    2015-12-01

    Evacuation start time and geographical extent are critical factors in reducing casualties in tsunami forecasting, as was evident during the 2011 Mw 9.0 Great East Japan event. The Japanese early warning system is highly dependent on initial estimates of earthquake magnitude and whether or not the earthquake is tsunamigenic. The extent of the evacuation area is predetermined according to magnitude, which for this event was underestimated primarily due to saturation effects associated with seismic instrumentation. GNSS (GPS and other navigation satellites) does not have this limitation and also provides the permanent coseismic motions, but although available was not yet integrated into the Japanese warning system in 2011. We discuss a prototype system for earthquake and tsunami early warning developed at SIO for the western U.S. The system is based on real-time GNSS and accelerometer data, if available at or near a GNSS station. We optimally combine the two types of observations in real time using precise point positioning with ambiguity resolution and accelerometer (PPP-ARA) software to estimate the broadband coseismic displacement and velocity waveforms with a latency of 1-2 seconds. These data allow for accurate detection of P-wave arrivals for near-source medium size earthquakes and greater. Using data from the 2010 Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah and 2011 Mw 9.0 Great East Japan earthquakes, we demonstrate rapid magnitude estimation, finite-source centroid moment tensor (CMT) solutions for earthquake characterization (is it tsunamigenic?) and static and kinematic fault slip model estimation. In the case of the 2011 event, we show how an accurate magnitude estimate can be obtained in seconds, followed by a finite source model in 2-3 minutes as input to a tsunami prediction model. The first tsunami waves arrived within 30 minutes of earthquake onset and every minute was important in determining an accurate assessment of the geographical extent of evacuation.

  10. Developing an early warning system for storm surge inundation in the Philippines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tablazon, J.; Caro, C. V.; Lagmay, A. M. F.; Briones, J. B. L.; Dasallas, L.; Lapidez, J. P.; Santiago, J.; Suarez, J. K.; Ladiero, C.; Gonzalo, L. A.; Mungcal, M. T. F.; Malano, V.

    2014-10-01

    A storm surge is the sudden rise of sea water generated by an approaching storm, over and above the astronomical tides. This event imposes a major threat in the Philippine coastal areas, as manifested by Typhoon Haiyan on 8 November 2013 where more than 6000 people lost their lives. It has become evident that the need to develop an early warning system for storm surges is of utmost importance. To provide forecasts of the possible storm surge heights of an approaching typhoon, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology (DOST-Project NOAH) simulated historical tropical cyclones that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility. Bathymetric data, storm track, central atmospheric pressure, and maximum wind speed were used as parameters for the Japan Meteorological Agency Storm Surge Model. The researchers calculated the frequency distribution of maximum storm surge heights of all typhoons under a specific Public Storm Warning Signal (PSWS) that passed through a particular coastal area. This determines the storm surge height corresponding to a given probability of occurrence. The storm surge heights from the model were added to the maximum astronomical tide data from WXTide software. The team then created maps of probable area inundation and flood levels of storm surges along coastal areas for a specific PSWS using the results of the frequency distribution. These maps were developed from the time series data of the storm tide at 10 min intervals of all observation points in the Philippines. This information will be beneficial in developing early warnings systems, static maps, disaster mitigation and preparedness plans, vulnerability assessments, risk-sensitive land use plans, shoreline defense efforts, and coastal protection measures. Moreover, these will support the local government units' mandate to raise public awareness, disseminate information about storm surge hazards, and implement appropriate counter

  11. Developing an early warning system for storm surge inundation in the Philippines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tablazon, Judd; Mahar Francisco Lagmay, Alfredo; Francia Mungcal, Ma. Theresa; Gonzalo, Lia Anne; Dasallas, Lea; Briones, Jo Brianne Louise; Santiago, Joy; Suarez, John Kenneth; Lapidez, John Phillip; Caro, Carl Vincent; Ladiero, Christine; Malano, Vicente

    2014-05-01

    A storm surge is the sudden rise of sea water generated by an approaching storm, over and above the astronomical tides. This event imposes a major threat in the Philippine coastal areas, as manifested by Typhoon Haiyan on 08 November 2013 where more than 6,000 people lost their lives. It has become evident that the need to develop an early warning system for storm surges is of utmost importance. To provide forecasts of the possible storm surge heights of an approaching typhoon, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology (DOST-Project NOAH) simulated historical tropical cyclones that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility. Bathymetric data, storm track, central atmospheric pressure, and maximum wind speed were used as parameters for the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Storm Surge Model. The researchers calculated the frequency distribution of maximum storm surge heights of all typhoons under a specific Public Storm Warning Signal (PSWS) that passed through a particular coastal area. This determines the storm surge height corresponding to a given probability of occurrence. The storm surge heights from the model were added to the maximum astronomical tide data from WXTide software. The team then created maps of probable area inundation and flood levels of storm surges along coastal areas for a specific PSWS using the results of the frequency distribution. These maps were developed from the time series data of the storm tide at 10-minute intervals of all observation points in the Philippines. This information will be beneficial in developing early warnings systems, static maps, disaster mitigation and preparedness plans, vulnerability assessments, risk-sensitive land use plans, shoreline defense efforts, and coastal protection measures. Moreover, these will support the local government units' mandate to raise public awareness, disseminate information about storm surge hazards, and implement appropriate

  12. Development of earthquake early warning system using real time signal of broadband seismogram

    SciTech Connect

    Gunawan, Hendar; Puspito, Nanang T.; Ibrahim, Gunawan; Harjadi, Prih

    2012-06-20

    Earthquake pose serious threat of live and properties for urban area near subduction zone offshore and active fault on land. Jakarta and Bandung is an example of big city that no system of Earthquake early warning (EEW) event very high urbanization, and has many important infra structure in the area. The capital city is potentially high risk ground shaking. EEW can be usefull tool for reducing earthquake hazard, if spatial relation between cities and earthquake source is favorable for such warning and their citizens are properly trained to response early warning message. An EEW and rapid response system can provide the critical information needed to minimized lost of live and property and direct rescue. Earthquake ground shaking with magnitude M>6.0 from zone of Megathrust, southern of West Java should potentially damage in the area of west java especially Bandung and Jakarta City. This research development of EEW parameter such as amplitude displacement (Pd), rapid magnitude determination (M) and Peak ground Velocity (PGV). We explore the practical approach to EEW with the use of Broadband seismogram signal. Time effective EEW which epicenter from megathrust zone has potential to provide EEW in the area of west java such as Jakarta first ground shaking more or less 60 second later and strong shaking 118 second after EEW Alarm on CISI Station. EEW notification at potentially damage in the area of west java can be predicted from the characteristic of Pd > 0.5 cm, M> 6 and PGV > 10 cm/sec. GIS as a tool for presentation of hazard mapping in the affected area.

  13. Tsunami Early Warning in Europe: NEAMWave Exercise 2012 - the Portuguese Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lendholt, Matthias; Hammmitzsch, Martin; Schulz, Jana; Reißland, Sven

    2013-04-01

    On 27th and 28th November 2012 the first European-wide tsunami exercise took place under the auspices of UNESCO Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas (ICG/NEAMTWS). Four international scenarios were performed - one for each candidate tsunami watch provider France, Greece, Portugal and Turkey. Their task was to generate and disseminate tsunami warning bulletins in-time and in compliance with the official NEAMTWS specifications. The Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera (IPMA, [1]) in Lissabon and the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI [2]) in Istanbul are the national agencies of Portugal and Turkey responsible for tsunami early warning. Both institutes are partners in the TRIDEC [3] project and were using the TRIDEC Natural Crisis Management (NCM) system during NEAMWave exercise. The software demonstrated the seamless integration of diverse components including sensor systems, simulation data, and dissemination hardware. The functionalities that were showcased significantly exceeded the internationally agreed range of capabilities. Special attention was given to the Command and Control User Interface (CCUI) serving as central application for the operator. Its origins lie in the DEWS project [4] but numerous new functionalities were added to master all requirements defined by the complex NEAMTWS workflows. It was of utmost importance to develop an application handling the complexity of tsunami science but providing a clearly arranged and comprehensible interface that disburdens the operator during time-critical hazard situations. [1] IPMA: www.ipma.pt/ [2] KOERI: www.koeri.boun.edu.tr/ [3] TRIDEC: www.tridec-online.eu [4] DEWS: www.dews-online.org

  14. An Early Warning System from debris flows based on ground vibration monitoring data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arattano, Massimo; Coviello, Velio

    2015-04-01

    Among the different countermeasures that can be adopted for the mitigation of landslide hazard, Early Warning Systems (EWSs) are receiving an increasing attention. EWSs are the set of capacities needed to generate and disseminate timely and meaningful warning information to enable individuals and communities threatened by a hazard to appropriately act, in sufficient time, to reduce the possibility of harm or loss (UNEP, 2012). An EWS from debris flows can be classified into two main categories: advance and event EWSs. Advance EWSs predict the occurrence of a debris flow by monitoring hydro-meteorological conditions that may lead to its initiation. Despite their widespread adoption, these latter systems are prone to false alarms because they are heavily affected by bias between regional rainfall threshold and local conditions. Event EWSs, on the contrary, detect the occurrence of a debris flow when the process is already in progress. They usually rely on the use of algorithms for processing in real time the monitoring data. Their effectiveness depends on the reliability of those algorithms, which require long development and testing phases. A specific testing field for event EWSs has been equipped in the Gadria instrumented basin, located in the Eastern Italian Alps. A specifically designed monitoring unit capable to record data from different type of sensors and to implement aboard warning algorithms has been installed along a straight reach of the torrent. A flashing light, installed on the bank of the torrent, has been wired to this unit. The flashing light is framed by a fixed video camera that also shoots the passage of debris flows in the torrent. This provides a visual verification of the efficacy of the algorithm under test, particularly useful to show to practitioners and administrators a clear demonstration of the warning outcome. In this work, we present the performance of a warning algorithm that has been experimented in the Gadria testing field in 2013

  15. Population-based study of capsular warning syndrome and prognosis after early recurrent TIA

    PubMed Central

    Paul, Nicola L.M.; Simoni, Michela; Chandratheva, Arvind

    2012-01-01

    Objective: Many guidelines recommend emergency assessment for patients with ≥2 TIAs within 7 days, perhaps in recognition of the capsular warning syndrome. However, it is unclear whether all patients with multiple TIAs are at high early risk of stroke and whether treatable underlying pathologies are more prevalent in this group. Methods: We studied clinical characteristics, Trial of Org 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment (TOAST) classification, and risk of stroke in 1,000 consecutive patients with incident and recurrent TIAs in a prospective, population-based study (Oxford Vascular Study). Results: Of 1,000 patients with TIAs, 170 had a further TIA within 7 days (105 within 24 hours). Multiple TIAs were not associated with carotid stenosis or atrial fibrillation, and much of the 10.6 (95% confidence interval [CI] 6.5−15.9) risk of stroke during the 7 days after the first TIA was due to patients with small-vessel disease (SVD) etiology (10 of 24 vs 8 of 146, odds ratio [OR] = 12.3, 95% CI 3.7–41.9, p < 0.0001), particularly those with motor weakness (i.e., capsular warning syndrome) compared with hemisensory events (9 of 15 [60%], 95% CI 35.3–84.7 vs 1 of 9 [11.1%], 95% CI 0–31.7, p = 0.03). The 7-day risk of stroke after a recurrent TIA was similar to the risk after a single TIA in patients with non-SVD TIA (8 of 146 [5.5%] vs 76 of 830 [9.2%], OR = 0.58, 95% CI 0.25–1.3, p = 0.20). Of the 9 patients with stroke after a capsular warning syndrome, all had the recurrent TIA within 24 hours after the first TIA, and the subsequent stroke occurred within 72 hours of the second TIA in 8. The ABCD2 scores of all preceding TIAs were ≥4 in all 9 patients with capsular warning syndrome before stroke. Conclusions: Capsular warning syndrome is rare (1.5% of TIA presentations) but has a poor prognosis (7-day stroke risk of 60%). Otherwise, recurrent TIA within 7 days is not associated with a greater stroke risk than that after a single TIA. PMID:22972645

  16. Enhancing Drought Early Warning System for Sustainable Water Resources and Agricultural Management through Apllication of Space Science - Nigeria in Perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Okpara, J. N.; Akeh, L. E.; Anuforom, A. C.; Aribo, P. B.; Olayanju, S. O.

    Enhancing Drought Early Warning System for Sustainable Water Resources and Agriculture Management through Application of Space Science - Nigeria in Perspective BY J N Okpara L E Akeh Anuforom P B Aribo and S O Olayanju Directorate of Applied Meteorological Services Nigerian Meteorological Agency NIMET P M B 615 Garki Abuja Nigeria e-mail underline Juddy Okpara yahoo co uk and underline tonycanuforom yahoo com underline Abstract This paper attempts to highlight the importance of drought early warning system in water resources and agricultural management in Nigeria Various studies have shown that the negative impacts of droughts and other forms of extreme weather phenomena can be substantially reduced by providing early warning on any impending weather extremes X-rayed in this study are the various techniques presently used by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency NIMET in generating information for meteorological Early Warning System EWS which are based on models that make use of ground-based raingauge data and sea surface temperatures SST Komuscu standardized precipitation index SPI inclusive These methods are often limited by such factors as network density of stations limited communication infrastructure human inefficiency etc NIMET is therefore embarking on the development of a new Satellite Agrometeorological Information System SAMIS-Nigeria for famine and drought early warning The system combines satellite data with raingauge data to give a range of

  17. A Topology Visualization Early Warning Distribution Algorithm for Large-Scale Network Security Incidents

    PubMed Central

    He, Hui; Fan, Guotao; Ye, Jianwei; Zhang, Weizhe

    2013-01-01

    It is of great significance to research the early warning system for large-scale network security incidents. It can improve the network system's emergency response capabilities, alleviate the cyber attacks' damage, and strengthen the system's counterattack ability. A comprehensive early warning system is presented in this paper, which combines active measurement and anomaly detection. The key visualization algorithm and technology of the system are mainly discussed. The large-scale network system's plane visualization is realized based on the divide and conquer thought. First, the topology of the large-scale network is divided into some small-scale networks by the MLkP/CR algorithm. Second, the sub graph plane visualization algorithm is applied to each small-scale network. Finally, the small-scale networks' topologies are combined into a topology based on the automatic distribution algorithm of force analysis. As the algorithm transforms the large-scale network topology plane visualization problem into a series of small-scale network topology plane visualization and distribution problems, it has higher parallelism and is able to handle the display of ultra-large-scale network topology. PMID:24191145

  18. A topology visualization early warning distribution algorithm for large-scale network security incidents.

    PubMed

    He, Hui; Fan, Guotao; Ye, Jianwei; Zhang, Weizhe

    2013-01-01

    It is of great significance to research the early warning system for large-scale network security incidents. It can improve the network system's emergency response capabilities, alleviate the cyber attacks' damage, and strengthen the system's counterattack ability. A comprehensive early warning system is presented in this paper, which combines active measurement and anomaly detection. The key visualization algorithm and technology of the system are mainly discussed. The large-scale network system's plane visualization is realized based on the divide and conquer thought. First, the topology of the large-scale network is divided into some small-scale networks by the MLkP/CR algorithm. Second, the sub graph plane visualization algorithm is applied to each small-scale network. Finally, the small-scale networks' topologies are combined into a topology based on the automatic distribution algorithm of force analysis. As the algorithm transforms the large-scale network topology plane visualization problem into a series of small-scale network topology plane visualization and distribution problems, it has higher parallelism and is able to handle the display of ultra-large-scale network topology. PMID:24191145

  19. Monitoring and Early Warning of the 2012 Preonzo Catastrophic Rockslope Failure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loew, Simon; Gschwind, Sophie; Keller-Signer, Alexandra; Valenti, Giorgio

    2015-04-01

    In this contribution we describe the accelerated creep stage and early warning system of a 210'000 m3 rock slope failure that occurred in May 2012 above the village of Preonzo (Swiss Alps). The very rapid failure occurred from a larger and retrogressive instability in high-grade metamorphic ortho-gneisses and amphibolites with a total volume of about 350'000 m3 located at an alpine meadow called Alpe di Roscioro. This instability showed clearly visible signs of movements since 1989 and accelerated creep with significant hydro-mechanical forcing since about 1999. Because the instability at Preonzo threatened a large industrial facility and important transport routes a cost-effective early warning system was installed in 2010. The alarm thresholds for pre-alarm, general public alarm and evacuation were derived from 10 years of continuous displacement monitoring with crack extensometers and an automated total station. These thresholds were successfully applied to evacuate the industrial facility and close important roads a few days before the catastrophic slope failure of May 15th, 2012. The rock slope failure occurred in two events, exposing a planar rupture plane dipping 42° and generating deposits in the mid-slope portion with a travel angle of 38°. Two hours after the second rockslide, the fresh colluvial deposits became reactivated in a devastating de-bris avalanche reaching the foot of the slope.

  20. Sinkhole monitoring and early warning: An experimental and successful GB-InSAR application

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Intrieri, Emanuele; Gigli, Giovanni; Nocentini, Massimiliano; Lombardi, Luca; Mugnai, Francesco; Fidolini, Francesco; Casagli, Nicola

    2015-07-01

    Sinkholes represent a natural risk that may hit catastrophically without clearly detectible precursors. However, they are often overlooked by people and administrators. Therefore sinkhole monitoring and associated early warnings constitute important research topics but, currently, only a few papers about sinkhole prediction can be found. In this paper an experience of sinkhole monitoring and early warning with GB-InSAR is described. The latter is a highly precise instrument that is able to produce displacement maps with metric spatial resolution. The described activities were carried out on Elba Island (central Italy), where karstified limestone set off the occurrence of nine sinkholes since 2008, all within less than 3000 m2, causing major damage to an important road and many indirect losses. In 1 year of monitoring two deforming areas were detected, and the point where a sinkhole was about to propagate to the street level was predicted, thus permitting the preventive closure of the road. The deformation area was larger than the hole generated by the sinkhole, thus showing a subsidence that continued for a prolonged time even after the cavity was filled up. The occurrence of a 1.5-m-wide sinkhole, undetected by the GB-InSAR, also showed the lower detection limit of the instrument.

  1. The Global Drought Monitor Portal - The Foundation for a Global Drought Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brewer, M.; Heim, R. R.; Pozzi, W.; Vogt, J.; Sheffield, J.

    2011-12-01

    Drought monitoring, assessment, response, mitigation, adaptation, and early warning systems have been created in a number of countries around the world, and some regional and continental efforts have been successful. However, the creation of a Global Drought Early Warning System (GDEWS) remains elusive. A GDEWS incorporates forecasting and research improvements, in addition to monitoring, impact, planning, mitigation and adaptation and recovery information. At a series of workshops in 2010, the US National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) agreed to take the first step toward a GDEWS, the formation of a Global Drought Monitoring Portal (GDMP). This effort currently covers three continents - North America, Europe, and Africa - and provides global drought indicator information through satellite products and Global Historical Climate Network locations. The GDMP has benefited from coordination with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and Group on Earth Observations (GEO). Other nations have expressed interest in contributing and new regional and continental information should be online shortly. This paper presents the capabilities of the GDMP to link the monitoring, forecasting, research, and impacts aspects of international drought as well as the advantages of using common architecture through GEO to facilitate transfer and interoperability of GDEWS-related information.

  2. Early flood warnings from empirical (expanded) downscaling of the full ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bürger, Gerd; Reusser, Dominik; Kneis, David

    2009-10-01

    A prototype early warning system for floods is introduced. For a small headwater catchment, probabilistic streamflow predictions in 24-hourly steps are obtained from downscaling all members of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System and feeding the resulting precipitation and temperature series into a hydrologic model. We apply "expanded downscaling," a scheme that was previously used for climate scenarios and that is particularly suited to extreme events and the simulation of flood-triggering heavy rainfall. The entire model chain is thoroughly verified, using daily precipitation and streamflow observations and forecasts from the decade 1997-2006. It turns out that strong meteorologic (precipitation) events are skillfully predicted for at least 5 days lead time by the downscaling. That skill, however, is partly lost by deficiencies in the hydrological modeling as revealed in this study. We discuss ways to overcome these difficulties, along with the prospect of employing the whole system operationally, for example, for reservoir regulations. We close with an outlook for early flash flood warnings.

  3. Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil

    PubMed Central

    Lowe, Rachel; Coelho, Caio AS; Barcellos, Christovam; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Catão, Rafael De Castro; Coelho, Giovanini E; Ramalho, Walter Massa; Bailey, Trevor C; Stephenson, David B; Rodó, Xavier

    2016-01-01

    Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.11285.001 PMID:26910315

  4. MAFALDA: An early warning modeling tool to forecast volcanic ash dispersal and deposition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barsotti, S.; Nannipieri, L.; Neri, A.

    2008-12-01

    Forecasting the dispersal of ash from explosive volcanoes is a scientific challenge to modern volcanology. It also represents a fundamental step in mitigating the potential impact of volcanic ash on urban areas and transport routes near explosive volcanoes. To this end we developed a Web-based early warning modeling tool named MAFALDA (Modeling and Forecasting Ash Loading and Dispersal in the Atmosphere) able to quantitatively forecast ash concentrations in the air and on the ground. The main features of MAFALDA are the usage of (1) a dispersal model, named VOL-CALPUFF, that couples the column ascent phase with the ash cloud transport and (2) high-resolution weather forecasting data, the capability to run and merge multiple scenarios, and the Web-based structure of the procedure that makes it suitable as an early warning tool. MAFALDA produces plots for a detailed analysis of ash cloud dynamics and ground deposition, as well as synthetic 2-D maps of areas potentially affected by dangerous concentrations of ash. A first application of MAFALDA to the long-lasting weak plumes produced at Mt. Etna (Italy) is presented. A similar tool can be useful to civil protection authorities and volcanic observatories in reducing the impact of the eruptive events. MAFALDA can be accessed at http://mafalda.pi.ingv.it.

  5. Late Lessons from Early Warnings: Toward Realism and Precaution with Endocrine-Disrupting Substances

    PubMed Central

    Gee, David

    2006-01-01

    The histories of selected public and environmental hazards, from the first scientifically based early warnings about potential harm to the subsequent precautionary and preventive measures, have been reviewed by the European Environment Agency. This article relates the “late lessons” from these early warnings to the current debates on the application of the precautionary principle to the hazards posed by endocrine-disrupting substances (EDSs). Here, I summarize some of the definitional and interpretative issues that arise. These issues include the contingent nature of knowledge; the definitions of precaution, prevention, risk, uncertainty, and ignorance; the use of differential levels of proof; and the nature and main direction of the methodological and cultural biases within the environmental health sciences. It is argued that scientific methods need to reflect better the realities of multicausality, mixtures, timing of dose, and system dynamics, which characterize the exposures and impacts of EDSs. This improved science could provide a more robust basis for the wider and wise use of the precautionary principle in the assessment and management of the threats posed by EDSs. The evaluation of such scientific evidence requires assessments that also account for multicausal reality. Two of the often used, and sometimes misused, Bradford Hill “criteria,” consistency and temporality, are critically reviewed in light of multicausality, thereby illustrating the need to review all of the criteria in light of 40 years of progress in science and policymaking. PMID:16818262

  6. Resilience indicators: prospects and limitations for early warnings of regime shifts

    PubMed Central

    Dakos, Vasilis; Carpenter, Stephen R.; van Nes, Egbert H.; Scheffer, Marten

    2015-01-01

    In the vicinity of tipping points—or more precisely bifurcation points—ecosystems recover slowly from small perturbations. Such slowness may be interpreted as a sign of low resilience in the sense that the ecosystem could easily be tipped through a critical transition into a contrasting state. Indicators of this phenomenon of ‘critical slowing down (CSD)’ include a rise in temporal correlation and variance. Such indicators of CSD can provide an early warning signal of a nearby tipping point. Or, they may offer a possibility to rank reefs, lakes or other ecosystems according to their resilience. The fact that CSD may happen across a wide range of complex ecosystems close to tipping points implies a powerful generality. However, indicators of CSD are not manifested in all cases where regime shifts occur. This is because not all regime shifts are associated with tipping points. Here, we review the exploding literature about this issue to provide guidance on what to expect and what not to expect when it comes to the CSD-based early warning signals for critical transitions.

  7. Conceptual Framework to Enable Early Warning of Relevant Phenomena (Emerging Phenomena and Big Data)

    SciTech Connect

    Schlicher, Bob G; Abercrombie, Robert K; Hively, Lee M

    2013-01-01

    Graphs are commonly used to represent natural and man-made dynamic systems such as food webs, economic and social networks, gene regulation, and the internet. We describe a conceptual framework to enable early warning of relevant phenomena that is based on an artificial time-based, evolving network graph that can give rise to one or more recognizable structures. We propose to quantify the dynamics using the method of delays through Takens Theorem to produce another graph we call the Phase Graph. The Phase Graph enables us to quantify changes of the system that form a topology in phase space. Our proposed method is unique because it is based on dynamic system analysis that incorporates Takens Theorem, Graph Theory, and Franzosi-Pettini (F-P) theorem about topology and phase transitions. The F-P Theorem states that the necessary condition for phase transition is a change in the topology. By detecting a change in the topology that we represent as a set of M-order Phase Graphs, we conclude a corresponding change in the phase of the system. The onset of this phase change enables early warning of emerging relevant phenomena.

  8. Heatwave Early Warning Systems and Adaptation Advice to Reduce Human Health Consequences of Heatwaves

    PubMed Central

    Lowe, Dianne; Ebi, Kristie L.; Forsberg, Bertil

    2011-01-01

    Introduction: With climate change, there has been an increase in the frequency, intensity and duration of heatwave events. In response to the devastating mortality and morbidity of recent heatwave events, many countries have introduced heatwave early warning systems (HEWS). HEWS are designed to reduce the avoidable human health consequences of heatwaves through timely notification of prevention measures to vulnerable populations. Objective: To identify the key characteristics of HEWS in European countries to help inform modification of current, and development of, new systems and plans. Methods: We searched the internet to identify HEWS policy or government documents for 33 European countries and requested information from relevant organizations. We translated the HEWS documents and extracted details on the trigger indicators, thresholds for action, notification strategies, message intermediaries, communication and dissemination strategies, prevention strategies recommended and specified target audiences. Findings and Conclusions: Twelve European countries have HEWS. Although there are many similarities among the HEWS, there also are differences in key characteristics that could inform improvements in heatwave early warning plans. PMID:22408593

  9. Providing the Framework for Earthquake and Tsunami Early Warning in British Columbia, Canada: WARN, the Web-enabled Awareness Research Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pirenne, B.; Rosenberger, A.; Crosby, R.; MacArthur, M.; Allen, N.; Bayaki, M.

    2015-12-01

    The main seismic hazard in western Canada is associated with the subduction of the Juan de Fuca plate under the North American continent. It threatens the major population centres of Vancouver and Victoria but also communities along the west coast of Vancouver Island, which face an additional threat from any earthquake-generated tsunami. WARN is a project of Ocean Networks Canada (ONC), a not-for-profit organization that manages several ocean observatories on behalf of the University of Victoria. WARN integrates an array of off-shore and on-shore sensors, both strong motion seismometers and ocean bottom pressure recorders, into a real-time network that is capable of detecting and classifying the early phases of an earthquake rupture as well as waves generated by a local or distant tsunami source. All of WARN's instruments perform complex signal processing tasks on site, on-line and in real time. For earthquakes, WARN's software receives event reports and waveform parameters from off-shore and on-shore strong motion seismometers and associates them with an epicentre and an average magnitude based on their respective empirical relationships. A client application computes the local impact time and expected severity in terms of Modified Mercalli Intensity from its own location in relation the reported epicentre, origin time and magnitude. Event reports from ocean bottom pressure recorders together with earthquake parameters are used to select precomputed scenarios from a tsunami propagation model and to forecast arrival times and inundation at specific points along the West coast of Vancouver Island. WARN's architecture is extremely flexible and can incorporate high rate GNSS based observations.

  10. Modelling entomological-climatic interactions of Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in two Colombian endemic-regions: contributions to a National Malaria Early Warning System

    PubMed Central

    Ruiz, Daniel; Poveda, Germán; Vélez, Iván D; Quiñones, Martha L; Rúa, Guillermo L; Velásquez, Luz E; Zuluaga, Juan S

    2006-01-01

    Background Malaria has recently re-emerged as a public health burden in Colombia. Although the problem seems to be climate-driven, there remain significant gaps of knowledge in the understanding of the complexity of malaria transmission, which have motivated attempts to develop a comprehensive model. Methods The mathematical tool was applied to represent Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in two endemic-areas. Entomological exogenous variables were estimated through field campaigns and laboratory experiments. Availability of breeding places was included towards representing fluctuations in vector densities. Diverse scenarios, sensitivity analyses and instabilities cases were considered during experimentation-validation process. Results Correlation coefficients and mean square errors between observed and modelled incidences reached 0.897–0.668 (P > 0.95) and 0.0002–0.0005, respectively. Temperature became the most relevant climatic parameter driving the final incidence. Accordingly, malaria outbreaks are possible during the favourable epochs following the onset of El Niño warm events. Sporogonic and gonotrophic cycles showed to be the entomological key-variables controlling the transmission potential of mosquitoes' population. Simulation results also showed that seasonality of vector density becomes an important factor towards understanding disease transmission. Conclusion The model constitutes a promising tool to deepen the understanding of the multiple interactions related to malaria transmission conducive to outbreaks. In the foreseeable future it could be implemented as a tool to diagnose possible dynamical patterns of malaria incidence under several scenarios, as well as a decision-making tool for the early detection and control of outbreaks. The model will be also able to be merged with forecasts of El Niño events to provide a National Malaria Early Warning System. PMID:16882349

  11. Conceptual Design and Challenges for a Tsunami Early Warning System in the Sea of Marmara

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Necmioglu, Ocal

    2015-04-01

    In this study, while discussing associated challenges such as contradictions between earthquake and tsunami mitigation activities in the Marmara Region, I suggest a conceptual design for a tsunami warning system in the Sea of Marmara upon an improved version of an applicable model for the near-field tsunami early warning and emergency planning in the Mediterranean Area presented by Papadopoulos and Fokaefs (2013). Due to the extreme short arrival times as a result of the close proximity of main fault lines to the coastal regions, and existence of potential submarine landslide sources, any tsunami early warning system in the Sea of Marmara has to be strongly coupled with the earthquake warning system and stakeholders of the tsunami mitigation activities, such as local and regional components of disaster and emergency management and civil protection units. Since 1900, around 90,000 people have lost their lives in 76 earthquakes in Turkey, with a total affected population of around 7 million and direct losses of around 25 billion USD (Erdik, 2013). Based on a time-dependent model that includes coseismic and postseismic effects of the 1999 Izmit earthquake with Mw = 7.4, the probability of an earthquake with Mw > 7 in the Sea of Marmara near Istanbul, as a mega-financial-city in the heart of the Marmara Region with a population around 13 million and 1,000,000 buildings, is 35% to 70% in the next 30 years (Parsons, 2004). Historical records indicate around 30 tsunamis in the Sea of Marmara until today (Altinok et al., 2011). Among those, catastrophic earthquakes such as 1509, 1766 and 1894 resulted in considerable tsunamis and some damage. Latest tsunami observed in Marmara was due to a triggered submarine landslide of 1999 Izmit earthquake which led to reported run-up heights of 1-3 m in most places (Tinti et al., 2006). Hence, the add-on impact of a tsunami generated by the anticipated next earthquake in the Sea of Marmara should not be neglected.

  12. Early warning of West Nile virus mosquito vector: climate and land use models successfully explain phenology and abundance of Culex pipiens mosquitoes in north-western Italy

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    the year, in conjunction with local land use, can be used to provide early warning of both the timing and magnitude of mosquito outbreaks. This potentially allows targeted mosquito control measures to be implemented, with implications for prevention and control of West Nile Virus and other mosquito borne diseases. PMID:24924622

  13. Most Common Foodborne Pathogens and Mycotoxins on Fresh Produce: A Review of Recent Outbreaks.

    PubMed

    Yeni, F; Yavaş, S; Alpas, H; Soyer, Y

    2016-07-01

    Every year millions of people are affected and thousands of them die due to infections and intoxication as a result of foodborne outbreaks, which also cause billions of dollars' worth of damage, public health problems, and agricultural product loss. A considerable portion of these outbreaks is related to fresh produce and caused by foodborne pathogens on fresh produce and mycotoxins. Escherichia coli O104:H4 outbreak, occurred in Germany in 2011, has attracted a great attention on foodborne outbreaks caused by contaminated fresh produce, and especially the vulnerability and gaps in the early warning and notification networks in the surveillance systems in all around the world. In the frame of this paper, we reviewed the most common foodborne pathogens on fresh produce, traceback investigations of the outbreaks caused by these pathogens, and lastly international early warning and notification systems, including PulseNet International and Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed, aiming to detect foodborne outbreaks. PMID:26583913

  14. [Health threats and health system crises. An approach to early warning and response. 2008 SESPAS Report].

    PubMed

    Simón Soria, Fernando; Guillén Enríquez, Francisco Javier

    2008-04-01

    The world is changing more and faster than ever before. New diseases are coming to light each year, controlled diseases are reemerging as potential threats, and natural or man-made disasters are increasingly affecting human health. The "International Health Regulations (2005)" reflect the changes in the response of public health to this new situation. Surveillance of specific diseases and predefined control measures have been replaced by surveillance of public health events of international concern and control measures adapted to each situation. The public health events of international interest are characterized by their seriousness, predictability, the risk of international spread and potential for travel or trade restrictions. The development of the European Early Warning and Response System in 1998 and the creation of the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control in 2005 demonstrate political commitment in Europe, with early detection of and response to public health threats. However, timely risk evaluation and response at a national level requires improved data digitalization and accessibility, automatic notification processes, data analysis and dissemination of information, the combination of information from multiple sources and adaptation of public health services. The autonomous regions in Spain are initiating this adaptation process, but interoperability between systems and the development of guidelines for a coordinated response should be steered by the National Interregional Health Council and coordinated by the Ministry of Health. Efficient early warning systems of health threats that allow for a timely response and reduce uncertainty about information would help to minimize the risk of public health crises. The profile of public health threats is nonspecific. Early detection of threats requires access to information from multiple sources and efficient risk assessment. Key factors for improving the response to public health threats are the

  15. The role of integrating natural and social science concepts for risk governance and the design of people-centred early warning systems. Case study from the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System Project (GITEWS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gebert, Niklas; Post, Joachim

    2010-05-01

    The development of early warning systems are one of the key domains of adaptation to global environmental change and contribute very much to the development of societal reaction and adaptive capacities to deal with extreme events. Especially, Indonesia is highly exposed to tsunami. In average every three years small and medium size tsunamis occur in the region causing damage and death. In the aftermath of the Indian Ocean Tsunami 2004, the German and Indonesian government agreed on a joint cooperation to develop a People Centered End-to-End Early Warning System (GITEWS). The analysis of risk and vulnerability, as an important step in risk (and early warning) governance, is a precondition for the design of effective early warning structures by delivering the knowledge base for developing institutionalized quick response mechanisms of organizations involved in the issuing of a tsunami warning, and of populations exposed to react to warnings and to manage evacuation before the first tsunami wave hits. Thus, a special challenge for developing countries is the governance of complex cross-sectoral and cross-scale institutional, social and spatial processes and requirements for the conceptualization, implementation and optimization of a people centered tsunami early warning system. In support of this, the risk and vulnerability assessment of the case study aims at identifying those factors that constitute the causal structure of the (dis)functionality between the technological warning and the social response system causing loss of life during an emergency situation: Which social groups are likely to be less able to receive and respond to an early warning alert? And, are people able to evacuate in due time? Here, only an interdisciplinary research approach is capable to analyze the socio-spatial and environmental conditions of vulnerability and risk and to produce valuable results for decision makers and civil society to manage tsunami risk in the early warning context

  16. Toward a National Early Warning System for Forest Disturbances Using Remotely Sensed Canopy Phenology

    SciTech Connect

    HargroveJr., William Walter; Spruce, Joe; Gasser, Gerry; Hoffman, Forrest M

    2009-01-01

    Imagine a national system with the ability to quickly identify forested areas under attack from insects or disease. Such an early warning system might minimize surprises such as the explosion of caterpillars referred to in the quotation to the left. Moderate resolution (ca. 500m) remote sensing repeated at frequent (ca. weekly) intervals could power such a monitoring system that would respond in near real-time. An ideal warning system would be national in scope, automated, able to improve its prognostic ability with experience, and would provide regular map updates online in familiar and accessible formats. Such a goal is quite ambitious - analyzing vegetation change weekly at a national scale with moderate resolution is a daunting task. The foremost challenge is discerning unusual or unexpected disturbances from the normal backdrop of seasonal and annual changes in vegetation conditions. A historical perspective is needed to define a 'baseline' for expected, normal behavior against which detected changes can be correctly interpreted. It would be necessary to combine temperature, precipitation, soils, and topographic information with the remotely sensed data to discriminate and interpret the changing vegetation conditions on the ground. Conterminous national coverage implies huge data volumes, even at a moderate resolution (250-500m), and likely requires a supercomputing capability. Finally, such a national warning system must carefully balance the rate of successful threat detection with false positives. Since 2005, the USDA Forest Service has partnered with the NASA Stennis Space Center and Oak Ridge National Laboratory to develop methods for monitoring environmental threats, including native insects and diseases, wildfire, invasive pests and pathogens, tornados, hurricanes, and hail. These tools will be instrumental in helping the Forest Service's two Environmental Threat Assessment Centers better meet their Congressional mandate to help track the health of the

  17. Drought early-warning driven by Remote sensed data in Henan Province, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, Yao; Sun, Rui

    2013-04-01

    Drought is the most common natural disaster that heavily affects the crop yield in Henan Province, the major food producer in China. Although there has been lots of study on drought monitoring during the past decades, drought early-warning is still difficult. In order to decrease the losses that come with drought as much as possible, it is necessary to combine remote sensing data and soil water budget model to monitor and predict the trend of drought. This paper describes the building, validation and application of a drought early-warning model. The model is designed to simulate the soil water balance for the winter wheat & maize growing areas in Henan Province on a daily basis. The model is a simple soil water budget model and is initialized by the soil moisture retrieved from MODIS data, which results in the application of model at a spatial resolution of 1 km. The input data include meteorologcal data (daily precipitation, air temperature, air humidity, wind speed and sunshine period), soil physical data (soil texture and available soil water capacity), topographical data (elevation, slope, aspect) and auxiliary data (crop growth period, latitude and so on). Emphasis is put on the estimation of actual and potential crop evapotranspiration by FAO Penman-Monteith equation, in this way, a daily drought warning index is defined by the ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration. Through the simulation of soil evaporation and vegetation transpiration, soil moisture and drought index can be predicted if weather forecast data are available. The initialized soil moisture is vital for this model. In this study, an Advanced Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (ATVDI) is used to monitor initialized soil moisture status using an improved surface temperature and a vegetation index space that is formed by the theoretical dry edge determined by the surface energy balance principle and the wet edge extracted from water surface temperature. The ATVDI can be calculated from

  18. Research and implement of remote vehicle monitoring and early-warning system based on GPS/GPRS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Shiwu; Tian, Jingjing; Yang, Zhifa; Qiao, Feiyan

    2013-03-01

    Concerning the problem of road traffic safety, remote monitoring and early-warning of vehicle states was the key to prevent road traffic accidents and improve the transportation effectiveness. Through the embedded development technology, a remote vehicle monitoring and early-warning system was developed based on UNO2170 industrial computer of Advantech with WinCE operating system using Embedded Visual C++ (EVC), which combined with multisensor data acquisition technology, global positioning system (GPS) and general packet radio service (GPRS). It achieved the remote monitoring and early-warning of commercial vehicle. This system was installed in a CA1046L2 light truck. Through many road tests, test results showed that the system reacted rapidly for abnormal vehicle states and had stable performance.

  19. Early warnings of the potential for malaria transmission in Rural Africa using the Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Transmission Simulator (HYDREMATS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamana, T. K.; Eltahir, E. A.

    2010-12-01

    Early warnings of malaria transmission allow health officials to better prepare for future epidemics. Monitoring rainfall is recognized as an important part of malaria early warning systems, as outlined by the Roll Back Malaria Initiative. The Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Simulator (HYDREMATS) is a mechanistic model that relates rainfall to malaria transmission, and could be used to provide early warnings of malaria epidemics. HYDREMATS is used to make predictions of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity for 2005, 2006, and 2007 in Banizoumbou village in western Niger. HYDREMATS is forced by observed rainfall, followed by a rainfall prediction based on the seasonal mean rainfall for a period two or four weeks into the future. Predictions made using this method provided reasonable estimates of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity, two to four weeks in advance. The predictions were significantly improved compared to those made when HYDREMATS was forced with seasonal mean rainfall alone.

  20. On the utility of in situ soil moisture observations for flash drought early warning in Oklahoma, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ford, Trent W.; McRoberts, D. Brent; Quiring, Steven M.; Hall, Ryann E.

    2015-11-01

    Drought early warning systems are a vital component of drought monitoring and require information at submonthly time scales because of the rapidly evolving nature of drought. This study evaluates the utility of in situ soil moisture observations for drought early warning in Oklahoma. Soil moisture was used to identify drought events, and the results were compared with the U.S. Drought Monitor with respect to the identification of drought onset. Soil moisture observations consistently identify rapid-onset (flash) drought events earlier than the U.S. Drought Monitor. Our results show that soil moisture percentiles provide a 2-3 week lead time over the U.S. Drought Monitor based on five flash drought events that occurred in Oklahoma between 2000 and 2013. We conclude that in situ soil moisture observations are an important source of information for early warning of flash drought events in the Oklahoma.

  1. Informing climate change adaptation with insights from famine early warning (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Funk, C. C.; Verdin, J. P.

    2010-12-01

    Famine early warning systems provide a unique viewpoint for understanding the implications of climate change on food security, identifying the locations and seasons where millions of food insecure people are dependent upon climate-sensitive agricultural systems. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) is a decision support system sponsored by the Office of Food for Peace of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), which distributes over two billion dollars of food aid to more than 40 countries each year. FEWS NET identifies the times and places where food aid is required by the most climatically sensitive and consequently food insecure populations of the developing world. As result, FEWS NET has developed its own "climate service", implemented by USGS, NOAA, and NASA, to support its decision making processes. The foundation of this climate service is the monitoring of current growing conditions for early identification of agricultural drought that might impact food security. Since station networks are sparse in the countries monitored, FEWS NET has a tradition (dating back to 1985) of reliance on satellite remote sensing of vegetation and rainfall. In the last ten years, climate forecasts have become an additional tool for food security assessment, extending the early warning perspective to include expected agricultural outcomes for the season ahead. More recently, research has expanded to include detailed analyses of recent observed climate trends, combined with diagnostic ocean-atmosphere studies. These studies are then used to develop interpretations of GCM scenarios and their implications for future patterns of precipitation and temperature, revealing trends towards warmer/drier climate conditions and increases in the relative frequency of drought. In some regions, like Eastern Africa, such changes seem to be already occurring, with an associated increase in food insecurity. Sub-national analyses for Kenya, for example, point to the

  2. Using a Negative Binomial Regression Model for Early Warning at the Start of a Hand Foot Mouth Disease Epidemic in Dalian, Liaoning Province, China

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Jun; Fan, Xuesong; Pan, Liyang; Sun, Wei

    2016-01-01

    Background The hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a human syndrome caused by intestinal viruses like that coxsackie A virus 16, enterovirus 71 and easily developed into outbreak in kindergarten and school. Scientifically and accurately early detection of the start time of HFMD epidemic is a key principle in planning of control measures and minimizing the impact of HFMD. The objective of this study was to establish a reliable early detection model for start timing of hand foot mouth disease epidemic in Dalian and to evaluate the performance of model by analyzing the sensitivity in detectability. Methods The negative binomial regression model was used to estimate the weekly baseline case number of HFMD and identified the optimal alerting threshold between tested difference threshold values during the epidemic and non-epidemic year. Circular distribution method was used to calculate the gold standard of start timing of HFMD epidemic. Results From 2009 to 2014, a total of 62022 HFMD cases were reported (36879 males and 25143 females) in Dalian, Liaoning Province, China, including 15 fatal cases. The median age of the patients was 3 years. The incidence rate of epidemic year ranged from 137.54 per 100,000 population to 231.44 per 100,000population, the incidence rate of non-epidemic year was lower than 112 per 100,000 population. The negative binomial regression model with AIC value 147.28 was finally selected to construct the baseline level. The threshold value was 100 for the epidemic year and 50 for the non- epidemic year had the highest sensitivity(100%) both in retrospective and prospective early warning and the detection time-consuming was 2 weeks before the actual starting of HFMD epidemic. Conclusions The negative binomial regression model could early warning the start of a HFMD epidemic with good sensitivity and appropriate detection time in Dalian. PMID:27348747

  3. MQUAKE multicast software early warning demonstrated for 31 October 2001 Anza Ml5.1 earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eakins, J. A.; Hansen, T.; Vernon, F. L.; Braun, H.

    2003-12-01

    MQUAKE distributes real-time multicast parametric information from individual sensors as well as a summarized location and magnitude based on the data recorded from sensors of the ANZA seismic network with the goal of providing event notification prior to arrival of the actual shock wave at the client's location. The program gathers detection and triggering information from an operational Antelope real-time data collection system and sends them to clients via multicast and unicast UDP packets. Multicast packets are preferred as they allow multiple people to receive event packets in the fastest time possible (however, a unicast mode is available since most IP networks do not support multicast). These packets are decrypted in a client software which then produces a list of triggers/events that will be used in future versions of the code to generate wavefront estimate plots and approximate maximum shock wave travel times based on the client's location and limited current information. This systems works in both a wired and wireless environment, such as HPWREN, the High Performance Wireless Research and Education Network. A real-time example of this system was obtained during the Ml5.1 31 October 2001 earthquake that occurred directly under the ANZA seismic network, approximately 70 km away from an MQUAKE client. The MQUAKE program was able to deliver a warning of a significant "event" 10 seconds after the initial ground motion was recorded and about 4 seconds prior to ground motion reaching the client. An actual event location and magnitude approximation was received 71 seconds after the local ground shaking at the client's location (85 seconds after the event). Had the client been located along the coast of San Diego, they would have had additional warning time prior to the shaking. Clients in San Diego, the closest major metropolitan area to this event, could have received up to 12 seconds of early warning.

  4. A Simulation Study to Assess the Potential of Real-Time GPS for Tsunami Early Warning in Chile

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Kejie; Babeyko, Andrey Y.; Hoechner, Andreas; Ge, Maorong

    2014-05-01

    Global Positioning System (GPS) has been proved to be a powerful tool for measuring co-seismic ground displacement with application to earthquake rupture inversion. Due to the fact that most of the tsunamis are triggered by large earthquakes, GPS could contribute to tsunami early warning by helping to resolve for the tsunami source in almost real-time. Recently, this became a core of the concept of a 'GPS-Shield for Tsunami Early Warning'. In present study we extend this concept to the Chilean Pacific continental margin. Chile is situated at the western margin of the South American plate which experiences constant tectonic forcing due to the actively subducted Nazca oceanic plate. This ongoing subduction makes almost the whole Chilean coast to be vulnerable to earthquake and tsunami threats. New Chilean tsunami early warning system is expected to incorporate the novel real-time GPS-component for fast source inversion. We use numerical simulation technique to evaluate the potential of the coastal real-time GPS arrays for reliable early warning. We provide start-to-end simulations of the related physical processes (earthquake rupture, ground shaking, tsunami generation and propagation) together with their sensor (GPS) imaging and processing. In particular, co-seismic GPS observations are simulated using Bernese 5.2 software. For GPS data processing, both Bernese 5.2 and (real-time) PANDA are adopted for comparison. We demonstrate our 'close-loop' simulation workbench together with main results reflecting the importance of the real-time GPS component for the tsunami early warning in Chile. Special attention is paid to the uncertainty propagation through the early warning chain.

  5. TRIDEC Cloud - a Web-based Platform for Tsunami Early Warning tested with NEAMWave14 Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hammitzsch, Martin; Spazier, Johannes; Reißland, Sven; Necmioglu, Ocal; Comoglu, Mustafa; Ozer Sozdinler, Ceren; Carrilho, Fernando; Wächter, Joachim

    2015-04-01

    In times of cloud computing and ubiquitous computing the use of concepts and paradigms introduced by information and communications technology (ICT) have to be considered even for early warning systems (EWS). Based on the experiences and the knowledge gained in research projects new technologies are exploited to implement a cloud-based and web-based platform - the TRIDEC Cloud - to open up new prospects for EWS. The platform in its current version addresses tsunami early warning and mitigation. It merges several complementary external and in-house cloud-based services for instant tsunami propagation calculations and automated background computation with graphics processing units (GPU), for web-mapping of hazard specific geospatial data, and for serving relevant functionality to handle, share, and communicate threat specific information in a collaborative and distributed environment. The TRIDEC Cloud can be accessed in two different modes, the monitoring mode and the exercise-and-training mode. The monitoring mode provides important functionality required to act in a real event. So far, the monitoring mode integrates historic and real-time sea level data and latest earthquake information. The integration of sources is supported by a simple and secure interface. The exercise and training mode enables training and exercises with virtual scenarios. This mode disconnects real world systems and connects with a virtual environment that receives virtual earthquake information and virtual sea level data re-played by a scenario player. Thus operators and other stakeholders are able to train skills and prepare for real events and large exercises. The GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI), and the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) have used the opportunity provided by NEAMWave14 to test the TRIDEC Cloud as a collaborative activity based on previous partnership and commitments at

  6. Social and news media enable estimation of epidemiological patterns early in the 2010 Haitian cholera outbreak.

    PubMed

    Chunara, Rumi; Andrews, Jason R; Brownstein, John S

    2012-01-01

    During infectious disease outbreaks, data collected through health institutions and official reporting structures may not be available for weeks, hindering early epidemiologic assessment. By contrast, data from informal media are typically available in near real-time and could provide earlier estimates of epidemic dynamics. We assessed correlation of volume of cholera-related HealthMap news media reports, Twitter postings, and government cholera cases reported in the first 100 days of the 2010 Haitian cholera outbreak. Trends in volume of informal sources significantly correlated in time with official case data and was available up to 2 weeks earlier. Estimates of the reproductive number ranged from 1.54 to 6.89 (informal sources) and 1.27 to 3.72 (official sources) during the initial outbreak growth period, and 1.04 to 1.51 (informal) and 1.06 to 1.73 (official) when Hurricane Tomas afflicted Haiti. Informal data can be used complementarily with official data in an outbreak setting to get timely estimates of disease dynamics. PMID:22232449

  7. Social and News Media Enable Estimation of Epidemiological Patterns Early in the 2010 Haitian Cholera Outbreak

    PubMed Central

    Chunara, Rumi; Andrews, Jason R.; Brownstein, John S.

    2012-01-01

    During infectious disease outbreaks, data collected through health institutions and official reporting structures may not be available for weeks, hindering early epidemiologic assessment. By contrast, data from informal media are typically available in near real-time and could provide earlier estimates of epidemic dynamics. We assessed correlation of volume of cholera-related HealthMap news media reports, Twitter postings, and government cholera cases reported in the first 100 days of the 2010 Haitian cholera outbreak. Trends in volume of informal sources significantly correlated in time with official case data and was available up to 2 weeks earlier. Estimates of the reproductive number ranged from 1.54 to 6.89 (informal sources) and 1.27 to 3.72 (official sources) during the initial outbreak growth period, and 1.04 to 1.51 (informal) and 1.06 to 1.73 (official) when Hurricane Tomas afflicted Haiti. Informal data can be used complementarily with official data in an outbreak setting to get timely estimates of disease dynamics. PMID:22232449

  8. Toward Global Drought Early Warning Capability - Expanding International Cooperation for the Development of a Framework for Monitoring and Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pozzi, Will; Sheffield, Justin; Stefanski, Robert; Cripe, Douglas; Pulwarty, Roger; Vogt, Jurgen V.; Heim, Richard R., Jr.; Brewer, Michael J.; Svoboda, Mark; Westerhoff, Rogier; vanDijk, Albert I. J. M.; Lloyd-Hughes, Benjamin; Pappenberger, Florian; Werner, Micha; Dutra, Emanuel; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Wagner, Wolfgang; Schubert, Siegfried; Mo, Kingste; Nicholson, Margaret; Bettio, Lynette; Nunez, Liliana; vanBeek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc; deGoncalves, Luis Gustavo Goncalves; deMattos, Joao Gerd Zell; Lawford, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Drought has had a significant impact on civilization throughout history in terms of reductions in agricultural productivity, potable water supply, and economic activity, and in extreme cases this has led to famine. Every continent has semiarid areas, which are especially vulnerable to drought. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has noted that average annual river runoff and water availability are projected to decrease by 10 percent-13 percent over some dry and semiarid regions in mid and low latitudes, increasing the frequency, intensity, and duration of drought, along with its associated impacts. The sheer magnitude of the problem demands efforts to reduce vulnerability to drought by moving away from the reactive, crisis management approach of the past toward a more proactive, risk management approach that is centered on reducing vulnerability to drought as much as possible while providing early warning of evolving drought conditions and possible impacts. Many countries, unfortunately, do not have adequate resources to provide early warning, but require outside support to provide the necessary early warning information for risk management. Furthermore, in an interconnected world, the need for information on a global scale is crucial for understanding the prospect of declines in agricultural productivity and associated impacts on food prices, food security, and potential for civil conflict. This paper highlights the recent progress made toward a Global Drought Early Warning Monitoring Framework (GDEWF), an underlying partnership and framework, along with its Global Drought Early Warning System (GDEWS), which is its interoperable information system, and the organizations that have begun working together to make it a reality. The GDEWF aims to improve existing regional and national drought monitoring and forecasting capabilities by adding a global component, facilitating continental monitoring and forecasting (where lacking), and improving these tools at

  9. GloFAS - global ensemble streamflow forecasting and flood early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alfieri, L.; Burek, P.; Dutra, E.; Krzeminski, B.; Muraro, D.; Thielen, J.; Pappenberger, F.

    2013-03-01

    Anticipation and preparedness for large-scale flood events have a key role in mitigating their impact and optimizing the strategic planning of water resources. Although several developed countries have well-established systems for river monitoring and flood early warning, figures of populations affected every year by floods in developing countries are unsettling. This paper presents the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS), which has been set up to provide an overview on upcoming floods in large world river basins. GloFAS is based on distributed hydrological simulation of numerical ensemble weather predictions with global coverage. Streamflow forecasts are compared statistically to climatological simulations to detect probabilistic exceedance of warning thresholds. In this article, the system setup is described, together with an evaluation of its performance over a two-year test period and a qualitative analysis of a case study for the Pakistan flood, in summer 2010. It is shown that hazardous events in large river basins can be skilfully detected with a forecast horizon of up to 1 month. In addition, results suggest that an accurate simulation of initial model conditions and an improved parameterization of the hydrological model are key components to reproduce accurately the streamflow variability in the many different runoff regimes of the earth.

  10. Incorporate Seismic Activity Prior Information to Earthquake Early Warning through Bayesian Framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yin, L.; Heaton, T. H.

    2015-12-01

    Most of the current Earthquake Early Warning technologies focus on time analysis of wave amplitudes. There are two major drawbacks of these waveform-based techniques: tradeoffs between magnitude and distance estimation for the onsite algorithms, and time latency in alerts for the network algorithms. We are proposing an alternative EEW algorithm that combines the efficiency of onsite algorithms and accuracy of network algorithms, which provides the fastest alert at the moment of station trigger. It is achieved by using observed seismicity from the network as prior information to predict short-term seismic hazards, and then use trigger information from the onsite station as likelihood information to estimate earthquake probability and hypocenter location. This algorithm has numbers of advantages. First, due to the independent data source of this algorithm, results can be directly multiplied to the results of other algorithms such as GPS and waveform data under Bayesian framework to achieve posterior probability function. Second, it is especially beneficial for regions with sparsely distributed station density where it takes longer time for the seismic signals to arrive at the near stations. Lastly, it can significantly speed up warning process during aftershock sequence, swarm earthquake sequence, and mainshocks that had foreshocks. The concept can be further extended to network-based algorithms to incorporate arrived waveform data at more stations.

  11. A Prototype Flood Early Warning SensorWeb System for Namibia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sohlberg, R. A.; Mandl, D.; Frye, S. W.; Cappelaere, P. G.; Szarzynski, J.; Policelli, F.; van Langenhove, G.

    2010-12-01

    During the past two years, there have been extensive floods in the country of Namibia, Africa which have affected up to a quarter of the population. Via a collaboration between a group funded by the Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO) at NASA that has been performing various SensorWeb prototyping activities for disasters, the Department of Hydrology in Namibia and the United Nations Space-based Information for Disaster and Emergency Response (UN-SPIDER) , experiments were conducted on how to apply various satellite resources integrated into a SensorWeb architecture along with in-situ sensors such as river gauges and rain gauges into a flood early warning system. The SensorWeb includes a global flood model and a higher resolution basin specific flood model. Furthermore, flood extent and status is monitored by optical and radar types of satellites and integrated via some automation. We have taken a practical approach to find out how to create a working system by selectively using the components that provide good results. The vision for the future is to combine this with the country side dwelling unit data base to create risk maps that provide specific warnings to houses within high risk areas based on near term predictions. This presentation will show some of the highlights of the effort thus far plus our future plans.

  12. A Feasibility Study for Earthquake Early Warning in a School in Southern Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Emolo, A.; Martino, C.; Picozzi, M.; Zollo, A.; Elia, L.; Festa, G.; Colombelli, S.; Caruso, A.; Brondi, P.; Miranda, N.

    2015-12-01

    We present the results of a feasibility study on the application of earthquake early-warning procedures in the high school ITIS E. Majorana, Somma Vesuviana, Naples, located about 80 km far from the seismogenic Irpinia region. The study was performed in the framework of the European REAKT project. The school was equipped with an EEWS composed of: a small seismic network of accelerometers, the PRESToPlus software platform, and an actuator, named Sentinel. The Sentinel is made up of low-cost hardware (i.e., Arduino®) programmed to accomplish three main tasks: 1) listen and interpret messages delivered by the EEW system PRESToPlus on the ground motion severity expected at the target site; 2) provides different warnings as alert levels by the control of different hardware (i.e., alarm bells, emergency lights, and so on); 3) declare the end of the most threatening condition, which will assist the emergency coordinator starting the evacuation plan defined by the current legislation. The Sentinel was developed within REAKT in close collaboration with the students and the teachers of the school. The EEW system and the Sentinel were successfully tested during some blind drills performed during normal school activities.

  13. Local Facilitation May Cause Tipping Points on a Landscape Level Preceded by Early-Warning Indicators.

    PubMed

    Xu, Chi; Van Nes, Egbert H; Holmgren, Milena; Kéfi, Sonia; Scheffer, Marten

    2015-10-01

    Positive biotic interactions play a significant role in shaping ecological communities. We used an individual-based model to demonstrate that plant facilitation on a microscale may cause ecosystem shifts on a landscape scale that can be announced by generic early-warning indicators. Recruitment of woody plants in harsh environments such as drylands often depends on nurse plants that ameliorate stressful conditions and facilitate the establishment of seedlings under their canopy. We found that these facilitative interactions may cause a treeless and a woodland state to be alternative stable states on a landscape scale if nurse plant effects are strong and if the environment is harsh enough to make facilitation necessary for seedling survival. A corollary is that under such conditions environmental change can bring drylands to tipping points for woody plant encroachment or woodland collapse. We show that the proximity of tipping points may be indicated by slowness of recovery of woody vegetation cover from small perturbations as well as by elevated temporal and spatial autocorrelation and variance. These signs are known to be indicators of critical slowing down. This is the first demonstration that the systemic phenomena of tipping points, announced by critical slowing down as a warning signal, may plausibly arise from microscale individual interactions, such as plant facilitation. PMID:26655579

  14. Testing of a Prototype Tsunami Early Warning System for the Coasts of Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Romano, F.; Piatanesi, A.; Lorito, S.

    2009-12-01

    In the framework of the agreement between Italian Civil Protection and INGV (DPC-S3 project), we are studying the feasibility of a Tsunami Early Warning System (TEWS) for the coasts of Italy. The performances of such a prototype TEWS have been evaluated. The underlying concept is borrowed from the Japan Meteorological Agency’s TEWS. This tsunami warning system is in fact based on a set of elementary submarine earthquake sources. In case of an earthquake, the wave heights generated by each elementary source must be interpolated to evaluate in real-time if and where a significant tsunami could have been generated, in order to launch an alert for the most exposed coastlines. A series of synthetic tests have been conducted in order to assess the optimal resolution of the parameter’s space sampling, and to construct a sufficiently accurate database of elementary sources. The results of the synthetic tests are presented here. Moreover, the Mw=6.9 May 2003 Boumerdes- Zemmouri (Algeria) earthquake, which generated a moderate tsunami causing significant damages particularly at Balearic Islands (Spain), has been used as a case-study for the validation of the database.

  15. A General Introduction of the Earthquake Early Warning System Technology Developed in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, T.

    2015-12-01

    Since the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008, a dramatic progress on earthquake early warning (EEW) has been made by Institute of Care-life (ICL) in China. The research on EEW by ICL covers choosing appropriate sensors, methods of installing the sensors, data automatic process methods of the seismic waves for EEW, methods of applying of EEW warnings for public, schools and life-line projects. ICL innovatively applies distributed computing and cloud computing technology. So far, ICL has deployed over 5500 EEW sensors in China, which is 5 times the number of EEW sensors in Japan, covering more than 2.1 million square kilometers. Since June, 2011, over 5000 earthquakes, with 28 of them are destructive quakes, have triggered the EEWS with no false alert. The root mean square (RMS) error of the magnitude for the 28 destructive quakes is 0.32. In addition, innovative work is done to suppress false alarm and miss alarm, which pushes forward the application of EEW in China. The technology is also being applied in Nepal now.

  16. Identifying early-warning signals of critical transitions with strong noise by dynamical network markers

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Rui; Chen, Pei; Aihara, Kazuyuki; Chen, Luonan

    2015-01-01

    Identifying early-warning signals of a critical transition for a complex system is difficult, especially when the target system is constantly perturbed by big noise, which makes the traditional methods fail due to the strong fluctuations of the observed data. In this work, we show that the critical transition is not traditional state-transition but probability distribution-transition when the noise is not sufficiently small, which, however, is a ubiquitous case in real systems. We present a model-free computational method to detect the warning signals before such transitions. The key idea behind is a strategy: “making big noise smaller” by a distribution-embedding scheme, which transforms the data from the observed state-variables with big noise to their distribution-variables with small noise, and thus makes the traditional criteria effective because of the significantly reduced fluctuations. Specifically, increasing the dimension of the observed data by moment expansion that changes the system from state-dynamics to probability distribution-dynamics, we derive new data in a higher-dimensional space but with much smaller noise. Then, we develop a criterion based on the dynamical network marker (DNM) to signal the impending critical transition using the transformed higher-dimensional data. We also demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in biological, ecological and financial systems. PMID:26647650

  17. MyShake: A smartphone seismic network for earthquake early warning and beyond.

    PubMed

    Kong, Qingkai; Allen, Richard M; Schreier, Louis; Kwon, Young-Woo

    2016-02-01

    Large magnitude earthquakes in urban environments continue to kill and injure tens to hundreds of thousands of people, inflicting lasting societal and economic disasters. Earthquake early warning (EEW) provides seconds to minutes of warning, allowing people to move to safe zones and automated slowdown and shutdown of transit and other machinery. The handful of EEW systems operating around the world use traditional seismic and geodetic networks that exist only in a few nations. Smartphones are much more prevalent than traditional networks and contain accelerometers that can also be used to detect earthquakes. We report on the development of a new type of seismic system, MyShake, that harnesses personal/private smartphone sensors to collect data and analyze earthquakes. We show that smartphones can record magnitude 5 earthquakes at distances of 10 km or less and develop an on-phone detection capability to separate earthquakes from other everyday shakes. Our proof-of-concept system then collects earthquake data at a central site where a network detection algorithm confirms that an earthquake is under way and estimates the location and magnitude in real time. This information can then be used to issue an alert of forthcoming ground shaking. MyShake could be used to enhance EEW in regions with traditional networks and could provide the only EEW capability in regions without. In addition, the seismic waveforms recorded could be used to deliver rapid microseism maps, study impacts on buildings, and possibly image shallow earth structure and earthquake rupture kinematics. PMID:26933682

  18. Monitoring and prediction in early warning systems for rapid mass movements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stähli, M.; Sättele, M.; Huggel, C.; McArdell, B. W.; Lehmann, P.; Van Herwijnen, A.; Berne, A.; Schleiss, M.; Ferrari, A.; Kos, A.; Or, D.; Springman, S. M.

    2015-04-01

    Rapid mass movements (RMM) pose a substantial risk to people and infrastructure. Reliable and cost-efficient measures have to be taken to reduce this risk. One of these measures includes establishing and advancing the state of practice in the application of early warning systems (EWSs). EWSs have been developed during the past decades and are rapidly increasing. In this paper, we focus on the technical part of EWSs, i.e., the prediction and timely recognition of imminent hazards, as well as on monitoring slopes at risk and released mass movements. Recent innovations in assessing spatial precipitation, monitoring and precursors of the triggering and deformation of RMM offer new opportunities for next-generation EWSs. However, technical advancement can only be transferred into more reliable, operational EWSs with an adequate well-instructed dedicated staff. To this end, an intense dialog between scientists, engineers and those in charge of warning, as well as further experience with new comprehensive prototype systems jointly operated by scientists and practitioners, will be essential.

  19. MyShake: A smartphone seismic network for earthquake early warning and beyond

    PubMed Central

    Kong, Qingkai; Allen, Richard M.; Schreier, Louis; Kwon, Young-Woo

    2016-01-01

    Large magnitude earthquakes in urban environments continue to kill and injure tens to hundreds of thousands of people, inflicting lasting societal and economic disasters. Earthquake early warning (EEW) provides seconds to minutes of warning, allowing people to move to safe zones and automated slowdown and shutdown of transit and other machinery. The handful of EEW systems operating around the world use traditional seismic and geodetic networks that exist only in a few nations. Smartphones are much more prevalent than traditional networks and contain accelerometers that can also be used to detect earthquakes. We report on the development of a new type of seismic system, MyShake, that harnesses personal/private smartphone sensors to collect data and analyze earthquakes. We show that smartphones can record magnitude 5 earthquakes at distances of 10 km or less and develop an on-phone detection capability to separate earthquakes from other everyday shakes. Our proof-of-concept system then collects earthquake data at a central site where a network detection algorithm confirms that an earthquake is under way and estimates the location and magnitude in real time. This information can then be used to issue an alert of forthcoming ground shaking. MyShake could be used to enhance EEW in regions with traditional networks and could provide the only EEW capability in regions without. In addition, the seismic waveforms recorded could be used to deliver rapid microseism maps, study impacts on buildings, and possibly image shallow earth structure and earthquake rupture kinematics. PMID:26933682

  20. A Distributed Architecture for Tsunami Early Warning and Collaborative Decision-support in Crises

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moßgraber, J.; Middleton, S.; Hammitzsch, M.; Poslad, S.

    2012-04-01

    The presentation will describe work on the system architecture that is being developed in the EU FP7 project TRIDEC on "Collaborative, Complex and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises". The challenges for a Tsunami Early Warning System (TEWS) are manifold and the success of a system depends crucially on the system's architecture. A modern warning system following a system-of-systems approach has to integrate various components and sub-systems such as different information sources, services and simulation systems. Furthermore, it has to take into account the distributed and collaborative nature of warning systems. In order to create an architecture that supports the whole spectrum of a modern, distributed and collaborative warning system one must deal with multiple challenges. Obviously, one cannot expect to tackle these challenges adequately with a monolithic system or with a single technology. Therefore, a system architecture providing the blueprints to implement the system-of-systems approach has to combine multiple technologies and architectural styles. At the bottom layer it has to reliably integrate a large set of conventional sensors, such as seismic sensors and sensor networks, buoys and tide gauges, and also innovative and unconventional sensors, such as streams of messages from social media services. At the top layer it has to support collaboration on high-level decision processes and facilitates information sharing between organizations. In between, the system has to process all data and integrate information on a semantic level in a timely manner. This complex communication follows an event-driven mechanism allowing events to be published, detected and consumed by various applications within the architecture. Therefore, at the upper layer the event-driven architecture (EDA) aspects are combined with principles of service-oriented architectures (SOA) using standards for communication and data exchange. The most prominent challenges on this layer

  1. Bridging Empirical and Physical Approaches for Landslide Monitoring and Early Warning

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kirschbaum, Dalia; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Adler, Robert; Kumar, Sujay; Harrison, Ken

    2011-01-01

    Rainfall-triggered landslides typically occur and are evaluated at local scales, using slope-stability models to calculate coincident changes in driving and resisting forces at the hillslope level in order to anticipate slope failures. Over larger areas, detailed high resolution landslide modeling is often infeasible due to difficulties in quantifying the complex interaction between rainfall infiltration and surface materials as well as the dearth of available in situ soil and rainfall estimates and accurate landslide validation data. This presentation will discuss how satellite precipitation and surface information can be applied within a landslide hazard assessment framework to improve landslide monitoring and early warning by considering two disparate approaches to landslide hazard assessment: an empirical landslide forecasting algorithm and a physical slope-stability model. The goal of this research is to advance near real-time landslide hazard assessment and early warning at larger spatial scales. This is done by employing high resolution surface and precipitation information within a probabilistic framework to provide more physically-based grounding to empirical landslide triggering thresholds. The empirical landslide forecasting tool, running in near real-time at http://trmm.nasa.gov, considers potential landslide activity at the global scale and relies on Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation data and surface products to provide a near real-time picture of where landslides may be triggered. The physical approach considers how rainfall infiltration on a hillslope affects the in situ hydro-mechanical processes that may lead to slope failure. Evaluation of these empirical and physical approaches are performed within the Land Information System (LIS), a high performance land surface model processing and data assimilation system developed within the Hydrological Sciences Branch at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. LIS provides the

  2. A P-wave based, on-site method for Earthquake Early Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zollo, Aldo

    2016-04-01

    Can we rapidly predict the potential damage of earthquakes by-passing the estimation of its location and magnitude? One possible approach is to predict the expected peak ground shaking at the site and the earthquake magnitude from the initial P-peak amplitude and characteristic period, respectively. The idea, first developed by Wu and Kanamori (2005), is to combine the two parameters for declaring the alert once the real-time measured quantities have passed pre-defined thresholds. Our proposed on-site early warning method generalized this approach, based on the analysis of strong motion data from modern accelerograph networks in Japan, Taiwan and Italy (Zollo et al., 2010). It is based on the real-time measurement of the period (τc) and peak displacement (Pd) parameters at one or more co-located stations at a given target site to be protected against the earthquake effects. By converting these real-time proxies in predicted values of Peak Ground Velocity (PGV) or instrumental intensity (IMM) and magnitude, an alert level is issued at the recording site based on a decisional table with four entries defined upon threshold values of the parameters Pd and Tc. The latter ones are set according to the error bounds estimated on the derived prediction equations. A near-source network of stations running the onsite method can provide the event location and transmit the information about the alert levels recorded at near-source stations to more distant sites, before the arrival of the most destructive phase. The network-based approach allows for the rapid and robust estimation of the Potential Damage Zone (PDZ), that is the area where most of earthquake damage is expected (Colombelli et al., 2012). A new strategy for a P-wave based, on-site earthquake early warning system has been developed and tested on Japanese strong motion data and under testing on Italian data. The key elements are the real-time, continuous measurement of three peak amplitude parameters and their

  3. Towards the construction of a Drought Early Warning System in México

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neri, C.; Magaña, V. O.

    2011-12-01

    Droughts in Mexico are related to severe impacts in agricultural and livestock activities, water management and with the occurrence of wildfire. Droughts are recurrent, on time scales from years to decades. The impacts however, depend on the vulnerability. The negative impacts may be reduced by studying and monitoring the dynamical evolution of meteorological drought, and by identifying the factors that result in vulnerability, in the context of risk management. Considering the analysis of the vulnerability in the northern of Mexico, a semiarid region highly vulnerable to drought, a Drought Early Warning System was created based on the use of climate information. The first step was to identify the capacity to provide useful climate information to develop prevention actions. Results confirm that the drought in northern Mexico is a well-diagnosed phenomenon from the point of view of impacts in various sectors. However, the use of climate information is still very limited resulting in response to mitigate drought impacts rather than preparing for drought. Part of the problem is the limited capacity to interpret probabilistic forecasts to define actions. Therefore, a key element in a Drought Early Warning System is the development of reliable climate information and the use of indicators to determine of the onset, maximum intensity and duration of the event. The occurrence and severity of drought may be estimated using climate diagnosis and forecast. A preventive response to drought may be defined if the severity and duration surpass a threshold value after which a decision action should be made. In order to establish the relevance of indicators for drought risk management, retroactive analyses have been developed considering the case of northwestern Mexico. After a vulnerability analysis that considers the institutional capacity to make use of climate information, a Drought Early warning System has been designed that considers a number of actions that may be put

  4. Urban flood early warning systems: approaches to hydrometeorological forecasting and communicating risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cranston, Michael; Speight, Linda; Maxey, Richard; Tavendale, Amy; Buchanan, Peter

    2015-04-01

    One of the main challenges for the flood forecasting community remains the provision of reliable early warnings of surface (or pluvial) flooding. The Scottish Flood Forecasting Service has been developing approaches for forecasting the risk of surface water flooding including capitalising on the latest developments in quantitative precipitation forecasting from the Met Office. A probabilistic Heavy Rainfall Alert decision support tool helps operational forecasters assess the likelihood of surface water flooding against regional rainfall depth-duration estimates from MOGREPS-UK linked to historical short-duration flooding in Scotland. The surface water flood risk is communicated through the daily Flood Guidance Statement to emergency responders. A more recent development is an innovative risk-based hydrometeorological approach that links 24-hour ensemble rainfall forecasts through a hydrological model (Grid-to-Grid) to a library of impact assessments (Speight et al., 2015). The early warning tool - FEWS Glasgow - presents the risk of flooding to people, property and transport across a 1km grid over the city of Glasgow with a lead time of 24 hours. Communication of the risk was presented in a bespoke surface water flood forecast product designed based on emergency responder requirements and trialled during the 2014 Commonwealth Games in Glasgow. The development of new approaches to surface water flood forecasting are leading to improved methods of communicating the risk and better performance in early warning with a reduction in false alarm rates with summer flood guidance in 2014 (67%) compared to 2013 (81%) - although verification of instances of surface water flooding remains difficult. However the introduction of more demanding hydrometeorological capabilities with associated greater levels of uncertainty does lead to an increased demand on operational flood forecasting skills and resources. Speight, L., Cole, S.J., Moore, R.J., Pierce, C., Wright, B., Golding, B

  5. r.massmov: a GRASS GIS module for landslide runout assessment in early warning monitoring systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cannata, Massimiliano; Molinari, Monia; Meisina, Claudia

    2013-04-01

    In the last decades, early warning systems have become a precious support in hazard management by helping in reducing the possible damages caused by natural and anthropic hazards. Furthermore, in the last years, thanks to the rapid advances in science and technology a new concept of innovative early warning systems has been developed taking advantage of the decreasing costs of sensors and the wide diffusion and coverage of internet services (WFS, WMS, WPS, SOS, etc.). In this concept, simulation models can play an important role: in fact, by allowing the objective assessment of the location and intensity of a possible disaster, they can provide valuable information to support decision makers in taking timely and appropriate disaster responses. r.massmov is a new GRASS GIS module for landslide runout simulation over complex topographies developed to meet the expectation of innovative early warning systems modeling services, identified by the authors through four key requirements: i) low simulation times, ii) geospatial capabilities, iii) three-dimensional analysis and iv) open source approach. The model, based on the combined use of shallow water equations and rheological formulas, is the result of a series of enhancements to the original Massmov2D code (Begueria et al. 2009) to significantly improve algorithms and computational times. With this work the authors want to illustrate the main characteristics of r.massmov model: the governing equations, the input/output data, the algorithms and the results of the model application on a case study located in Tessin (Switzerland) that highlighted the effectiveness of the changes performed to the original code in terms of time performances. Furthermore, the authors want to present a set of GRASS GIS specific tools for r.massmov (r.massmov.sensitivity, r.massmov.calibration, r.ucode), developed to systematize and simplify model sensitivity analysis and calibration procedures. References: Begueria S, Van Asch T W J, Malet J

  6. Toward tsunami early warning system in Indonesia by using rapid rupture durations estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madlazim, Physics Department, Faculty Mathematics; Sciences of Surabaya State University (UNESA) Jl. Ketintang, Surabaya 60231, Indonesia

    2012-06-01

    Indonesia has Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (Ina-TEWS) since 2008. The Ina-TEWS has used automatic processing on hypocenter; Mwp, Mw (mB) and Mj. If earthquake occurred in Ocean, depth < 70 km and magnitude > 7, then Ina-TEWS announce early warning that the earthquake can generate tsunami. However, the announcement of the Ina-TEWS is still not accuracy. Purposes of this research are to estimate earthquake rupture duration of large Indonesia earthquakes that occurred in Indian Ocean, Java, Timor sea, Banda sea, Arafura sea and Pasific ocean. We analyzed at least 330 vertical seismogram recorded by IRIS-DMC network using a direct procedure for rapid assessment of earthquake tsunami potential using simple measures on P-wave vertical seismograms on the velocity records, and the likelihood that the high-frequency, apparent rupture duration, Tdur. Tdur can be related to the critical parameters rupture length (L), depth (z), and shear modulus (μ) while Tdur may be related to wide (W), slip (D), z or μ. Our analysis shows that the rupture duration has a stronger influence to generate tsunami than Mw and depth. The rupture duration gives more information on tsunami impact, Mo/μ, depth and size than Mw and other currently used discriminants. We show more information which known from the rupture durations. The longer rupture duration, the shallower source of the earthquake. For rupture duration greater than 50 s, the depth less than 50 km, Mw greater than 7, the longer rupture length, because Tdur is proportional L and greater Mo/μ. Because Mo/μ is proportional L. So, with rupture duration information can be known information of the four parameters. We also suggest that tsunami potential is not directly related to the faulting type of source and for events that have rupture duration greater than 50 s, the earthquakes generated tsunami. With available real-time seismogram data, rapid calculation, rupture duration discriminant can be completed within 4-5 min

  7. Toward tsunami early warning system in Indonesia by using rapid rupture durations estimation

    SciTech Connect

    Madlazim

    2012-06-20

    Indonesia has Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (Ina-TEWS) since 2008. The Ina-TEWS has used automatic processing on hypocenter; Mwp, Mw (mB) and Mj. If earthquake occurred in Ocean, depth < 70 km and magnitude > 7, then Ina-TEWS announce early warning that the earthquake can generate tsunami. However, the announcement of the Ina-TEWS is still not accuracy. Purposes of this research are to estimate earthquake rupture duration of large Indonesia earthquakes that occurred in Indian Ocean, Java, Timor sea, Banda sea, Arafura sea and Pasific ocean. We analyzed at least 330 vertical seismogram recorded by IRIS-DMC network using a direct procedure for rapid assessment of earthquake tsunami potential using simple measures on P-wave vertical seismograms on the velocity records, and the likelihood that the high-frequency, apparent rupture duration, T{sub dur}. T{sub dur} can be related to the critical parameters rupture length (L), depth (z), and shear modulus ({mu}) while T{sub dur} may be related to wide (W), slip (D), z or {mu}. Our analysis shows that the rupture duration has a stronger influence to generate tsunami than Mw and depth. The rupture duration gives more information on tsunami impact, Mo/{mu}, depth and size than Mw and other currently used discriminants. We show more information which known from the rupture durations. The longer rupture duration, the shallower source of the earthquake. For rupture duration greater than 50 s, the depth less than 50 km, Mw greater than 7, the longer rupture length, because T{sub dur} is proportional L and greater Mo/{mu}. Because Mo/{mu} is proportional L. So, with rupture duration information can be known information of the four parameters. We also suggest that tsunami potential is not directly related to the faulting type of source and for events that have rupture duration greater than 50 s, the earthquakes generated tsunami. With available real-time seismogram data, rapid calculation, rupture duration discriminant

  8. Educator professional development as a component of earthquake and tsunami readiness and early warning systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pratt-Sitaula, B. A.; Butler, R. F.; Lillie, R. J.; Hunter, N.; Magura, B.; Groom, R.; Hedeen, C.; Johnson, J. A.; Olds, S. E.; Charlevoix, D.; Coe, M.

    2014-12-01

    The implementation of any real-time earthquake analysis for disaster mitigation requires not just scientific expertise and equipment but thoughtful, far-reaching, and long term education for emergency management personnel and the public. The "Cascadia EarthScope Earthquake and Tsunami Education Program" (CEETEP) is working to mitigate these potential disasters through collaboration building and professional development for K-12 teachers, park and museum interpreters, and emergency management outreach educators in communities along the Oregon and Washington coast (2013-2016). In this project nearly 150 coastal Cascadia educators are being introduced to critical knowledge about (among other things) earthquake monitoring and earthquake early warning systems. In collaboration last year with UNAVCO, CEETEP developed an animation explaining how GPS and seismic systems can work in concert to greatly enhance earthquake early warning systems for Cascadia and other subduction zone areas (www.youtube.com/user/unavcovideos, "animations"). Science and preparedness educators are key partners in the endeavor of implementing earthquake and tsunami early warning systems. The knowledge of how to run effective professional development programs for such educators will greatly enhance outreach efforts. Initial results from CEETEP are very encouraging. Four of the planned six workshops were held in 2013 (northern coastal Oregon) and 2014 (Olympic Peninsula, Washington). Results from Year 1 show that participant content knowledge improved from 50% to 86% over the course of the workshop. Similarly, confidence in teaching about workshop topics increased from an average of 2.8 to 5.2 on a 6-point scale. Participant optimism about the efficacy and tractability of community-level planning also increased from 5.7 to 7.4 on a 9-point scale. Nearly 90% of participants continued to be active with the program through the time of the March 8, 2014 Share-a-thon and presented on a wide range of

  9. Assessing Potential of VIIRS Data for Contribution to a Forest Threat Early Warning System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spruce, Joseph P.

    2007-01-01

    This viewgraph presentation reviews the contributions by the Rapid Prototyping Capability (RPC) towards using Visible Infrared Imager / Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) data in assessing the damage to forests. The Healthy Forest Restoration Act of 2003 mandates development of national Early Warning System (EWS) for forest threat monitoring and mitigation. NASA Stennis is working with the US Forest Service to develop needed components of this EWS. The use of MODIS data for monitoring forest disturbance at broad regional scales is a componet of this program. This RPC experiment was initiated to assess potential of the MODIS follow-on, VIIRS, for monitoring forest disturbance at broad scales and thereby contributing to the EWS. This presentation reviews the potential use of the VIIRS to examine the damage to forests caused by gyspy moths in the West Virginia and Virginia area.

  10. Non-stationary time series modeling on caterpillars pest of palm oil for early warning system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Setiyowati, Susi; Nugraha, Rida F.; Mukhaiyar, Utriweni

    2015-12-01

    The oil palm production has an important role for the plantation and economic sector in Indonesia. One of the important problems in the cultivation of oil palm plantation is pests which causes damage to the quality of fruits. The caterpillar pest which feed palm tree's leaves will cause decline in quality of palm oil production. Early warning system is needed to minimize losses due to this pest. Here, we applied non-stationary time series modeling, especially the family of autoregressive models to predict the number of pests based on its historical data. We realized that there is some uniqueness of these pests data, i.e. the spike value that occur almost periodically. Through some simulations and case study, we obtain that the selection of constant factor has a significance influence to the model so that it can shoot the spikes value precisely.

  11. [Fluorescence spectrum monitor for early warning of greenhouse cucumber aphis pests].

    PubMed

    Sui, Yuan-Yuan; Yu, Hai-Ye; Zhang, Lei; Luo, Han; Ren, Shun; Zhao, Guo-Gang

    2012-07-01

    The infection and degree of cucumber aphis pests was studied by analyzing chlorophyllfluorescence spectrum in greenhouse. Based on the configuration of the spectrum, characteristic points were established, in which the intensity of waveband F632 was the first characteristic point between healthy and aphis pests leaves. The second characteristic point was K which was the change rate of spectral curve from waveband F512 to F632. The early warning could be executed on plants depending on these two points. The models of the infection and degrees of aphis pests were established for different wavebands by the least square support vector machine classification method (LSSVMR) radial basis function(RBF). The accuracy rate of classification and prediction of the models was compared by different peaks and valleys value in wavebands. The results indicated that the prediction accuracy of the model established by waveband F632 was the most perfect (96.34%). PMID:23016335

  12. An Early Warning System for Loan Risk Assessment Based on Rare Event Simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Hong; Qiu, Yue; Wu, Yueqin

    System simulation is one of important tool for risk assessment. In this paper, a new method is presented to deal with credit risk assessment problems for commercial banks based on rare event simulation. The failure probability of repaying loans of listed company is taken as the criterion to measure the level of credit risk. The rare-event concept is adopted to construct the model of credit risk identification in commercial banks, and cross-entropy scheme is designed to implement the rare event simulation, based on which the loss probability can be assessed. Numerical experiments have shown that the method has a strong capability to identify the credit risk for commercial banks and offers a good tool for early warning.

  13. Emergency department syndromic surveillance providing early warning of seasonal respiratory activity in England.

    PubMed

    Hughes, H E; Morbey, R; Hughes, T C; Locker, T E; Pebody, R; Green, H K; Ellis, J; Smith, G E; Elliot, A J

    2016-04-01

    Seasonal respiratory infections place an increased burden on health services annually. We used a sentinel emergency department syndromic surveillance system to understand the factors driving respiratory attendances at emergency departments (EDs) in England. Trends in different respiratory indicators were observed to peak at different points during winter, with further variation observed in the distribution of attendances by age. Multiple linear regression analysis revealed acute respiratory infection and bronchitis/bronchiolitis ED attendances in patients aged 1-4 years were particularly sensitive indicators for increasing respiratory syncytial virus activity. Using near real-time surveillance of respiratory ED attendances may provide early warning of increased winter pressures in EDs, particularly driven by seasonal pathogens. This surveillance may provide additional intelligence about different categories of attendance, highlighting pressures in particular age groups, thereby aiding planning and preparation to respond to acute changes in EDs, and thus the health service in general. PMID:26415918

  14. Learning by teaching: undergraduate engineering students improving a community's response capability to an early warning system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suvannatsiri, Ratchasak; Santichaianant, Kitidech; Murphy, Elizabeth

    2015-01-01

    This paper reports on a project in which students designed, constructed and tested a model of an existing early warning system with simulation of debris flow in a context of a landslide. Students also assessed rural community members' knowledge of this system and subsequently taught them to estimate the time needed for evacuation of the community in the event of a landslide. Participants were four undergraduate students in a civil engineering programme at a university in Thailand, as well as nine community members and three external evaluators. Results illustrate project and problem-based, experiential learning and highlight the real-world applications and development of knowledge and of hard and soft skills. The discussion raises issues of scalability and feasibility for implementation of these types of projects in large undergraduate engineering classes.

  15. Real-time decision support systems: the famine early warning system network

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Funk, Christopher C.; Verdin, James P.

    2010-01-01

    A multi-institutional partnership, the US Agency for International Development’s Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) provides routine monitoring of climatic, agricultural, market, and socioeconomic conditions in over 20 countries. FEWS NET supports and informs disaster relief decisions that impact millions of people and involve billions of dollars. In this chapter, we focus on some of FEWS NET’s hydrologic monitoring tools, with a specific emphasis on combining “low frequency” and “high frequency” assessment tools. Low frequency assessment tools, tied to water and food balance estimates, enable us to evaluate and map long-term tendencies in food security. High frequency assessments are supported by agrohydrologic models driven by satellite rainfall estimates, such as the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI). Focusing on eastern Africa, we suggest that both these high and low frequency approaches are necessary to capture the interaction of slow variations in vulnerability and the relatively rapid onset of climatic shocks.

  16. A search for applications of Fiber Optics in early warning systems for natural hazards.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wenker, Koen; Bogaard, Thom

    2013-04-01

    In order to reduce the societal risk associated with natural hazards novel technologies could help to advance in early warning systems. In our study we evaluate the use of multi-sensor technologies as possible early-warning systems for landslides and man-made structures, and the integration of the information in a simple Decision Support System (DSS). In this project, particular attention will be paid to some new possibilities available in the field of distributed monitoring systems of relevant parameters for landslide and man-made structures monitoring (such as large dams and bridges), and among them the distributed monitoring of temperature, strain and acoustic signals by FO cables. Fiber Optic measurements are becoming more and more popular. Fiber optic cables have been developed in the telecommunication business to send large amounts of information over large distances with the speed of light. Because of the commercial application, production costs are relatively low. Using fiber optics for measurements has several advantages. This novel technology is, for instance, immune to electromagnetic interference, appears stable, very accurate, and has the potential to measure several independent physical properties in a distributed manner. The high resolution spatial and temporal distributed information on e.g. temperature or strain (or both) make fiber optics an interesting measurement technique. Several applications have been developed in both engineering as science and the possibilities seem numerous. We will present a thorough literature review that was done to assess the applicability and limitations of FO cable technology. This review was focused but not limited to application in landslide research. Several examples of current practices will be shown, also from outside the natural hazard practice and possible application will be discussed.

  17. Evaluating the Use of Remote Sensing Data in the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brown, Molly E.; Brickley, Elizabeth B.

    2011-01-01

    The US Agency for International Development (USAID) s Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) provides monitoring and early warning support to decision makers responsible for responding to food insecurity emergencies on three continents. FEWS NET uses satellite remote sensing and ground observations of rainfall and vegetation in order to provide information on drought, floods and other extreme weather events to decision makers. Previous research has presented results from a professional review questionnaire with FEWS NET expert end-users whose focus was to elicit Earth observation requirements. The review provided FEWS NET operational requirements and assessed the usefulness of additional remote sensing data. Here we analyzed 1342 food security update reports from FEWS NET. The reports consider the biophysical, socioeconomic, and contextual influences on the food security in 17 countries in Africa from 2000-2009. The objective was to evaluate the use of remote sensing information in comparison with other important factors in the evaluation of food security crises. The results show that all 17 countries use rainfall information, agricultural production statistics, food prices and food access parameters in their analysis of food security problems. The reports display large scale patterns that are strongly related to history of the FEWS NET program in each country. We found that rainfall data was used 84% of the time, remote sensing of vegetation 28% of the time, and gridded crop models 10%, reflecting the length of use of each product in the regions. More investment is needed in training personnel on remote sensing products to improve use of data products throughout the FEWS NET system.

  18. Pilot system on extreme climate monitoring and early warning for long range forecast in Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cho, K.; Park, B. K.; E-hyung, P.; Gong, Y.; Kim, H. K.; Park, S.; Min, S. K.; Yoo, H. D.

    2015-12-01

    Recently, extreme weather/climate events such as heat waves, flooding/droughts etc. have been increasing in frequency and intensity under climate change over the world. Also, they can have substantial impacts on ecosystem and human society (agriculture, health, and economy) of the affected regions. According to future projections of climate, extreme weather and climate events in Korea are expected to occure more frequently with stronger intensity over the 21st century. For the better long range forecast, it is also fundamentally ruquired to develop a supporting system in terms of extreme weather and climate events including forequency and trend. In this context, the KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) has recently initiated a development of the extreme climate monintoring and early warning system for long range forecast, which consists of three sub-system components; (1) Real-time climate monitoring system, (2) Ensemble prediction system, and (3) Mechanism analysis and display system for climate extremes. As a first step, a pilot system has been designed focusing on temperature extremes such heat waves and cold snaps using daily, monthly and seasonal observations and model prediction output on the global, regional and national levels. In parallel, the skills of the KMA long range prediction system are being evaluated comprehensively for weather and climate extremes, for which varous case studies are conducted to better understand the observed variations of extrem climates and responsible mechanisms and also to assess predictability of the ensemble prediction system for extremes. Details in the KMA extreme climate monitoring and early warning system will be intorduced and some preliminary results will be discussed for heat/cold waves in Korea.

  19. Early warning of active fire hotspots through NASA FIRMS fire information system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ilavajhala, S.; Davies, D.; Schmaltz, J. E.; Murphy, K. J.

    2014-12-01

    Forest fires and wildfires can threaten ecosystems, wildlife, property, and often, large swaths of populations. Early warning of active fire hotspots plays a crucial role in planning, managing, and mitigating the damaging effects of wildfires. The NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) has been providing active fire location information to users in easy-to-use formats for the better part of last decade, with a view to improving the alerting mechanisms and response times to fight forest and wildfires. FIRMS utilizes fires flagged as hotspots by the MODIS instrument flying aboard the Aqua and Terra satellites and sends early warning of detected hotspots via email in near real-time or as daily and weekly summaries. The email alerts can also be customized to send alerts for a particular region of interest, a country, or a specific protected area or park. In addition, a web mapping component, named "Web Fire Mapper" helps query and visualize hotspots. A newer version of Web Fire Mapper is being developed to enhance the existing visualization and alerting capabilities. Plans include supporting near real-time imagery from Aqua and Terra satellites to provide a more helpful context while viewing fires. Plans are also underway to upgrade the email alerts system to provide mobile-formatted messages and short text messages (SMS). The newer version of FIRMS will also allow users to obtain geo-located image snapshots, which can be imported into local GIS software by stakeholders to help further analyses. This talk will discuss the FIRMS system, its enhancements and its role in helping map, alert, and monitor fire hotspots by providing quick data visualization, querying, and download capabilities.

  20. An Early-Warning System for Volcanic Ash Dispersal: The MAFALDA Procedure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barsotti, S.; Nannipieri, L.; Neri, A.

    2006-12-01

    Forecasts of the dispersal of volcanic ash is a fundamental goal in order to mitigate its potential impact on urbanized areas and transport routes surrounding explosive volcanoes. To this aim we developed an early- warning procedure named MAFALDA (Modeling And Forecasting Ash Loading and Dispersal in the Atmosphere). Such tool is able to quantitatively forecast the atmospheric concentration of ash as well as the ground deposition as a function of time over a 3D spatial domain.\\The main features of MAFALDA are: (1) the use of the hybrid Lagrangian-Eulerian code VOL-CALPUFF able to describe both the rising column phase and the atmospheric dispersal as a function of weather conditions, (2) the use of high-resolution weather forecasting data, (3) the short execution time that allows to analyse a set of scenarios and (4) the web-based CGI software application (written in Perl programming language) that shows the results in a standard graphical web interface and makes it suitable as an early-warning system during volcanic crises.\\MAFALDA is composed by a computational part that simulates the ash cloud dynamics and a graphical interface for visualizing the modelling results. The computational part includes the codes for elaborating the meteorological data, the dispersal code and the post-processing programs. These produces hourly 2D maps of aerial ash concentration at several vertical levels, extension of "threat" area on air and 2D maps of ash deposit on the ground, in addition to graphs of hourly variations of column height.\\The processed results are available on the web by the graphical interface and the users can choose, by drop-down menu, which data to visualize. \\A first partial application of the procedure has been carried out for Mt. Etna (Italy). In this case, the procedure simulates four volcanological scenarios characterized by different plume intensities and uses 48-hrs weather forecasting data with a resolution of 7 km provided by the Italian Air Force.

  1. The GNSS data processing component within the Indonesian tsunami early warning centre provided by GITEWS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bartsch, M.; Merx, A.; Falck, C.; Ramatschi, M.

    2010-05-01

    Introduction Within the GITEWS (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) project a near real-time GNSS processing system has been developed, which analizes on- and offshore measured GNSS data. It is the first system of its kind that was integrated into an operational tsunami early warning system. (Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning Centre INATEWS, inaugurated at BMKG Jakarta on November, 11th 2008) Brief system description The GNSS data to be processed are received from sensors (GNSS antenna and receiver) installed on buoys, at tide gauges and as real-time reference stations (RTR stations), either stand-alone or co-located with seismic sensors. The GNSS data are transmitted to the warning centre in real-time as a stream (RTR stations) or file-based and are processed in a near real-time data processing chain. The fully automatized system uses the BERNESE GPS software as processing core. Kinematic coordinate timeseries with a resolution of 1 Hz (landbased stations) and 1/3 Hz (buoys) are estimated every five minutes. In case of a recently occured earthquake the processing interval decreases from five to two minutes. All stations are processed with the relative technique (baseline-technique) using GITEWS-stations and stations available via IGS as reference. The most suitable reference stations are choosen by querying a database where continiously monitored quality data of GNSS observations are stored. In case of an earthquake at least one reference station should be located on a different tectonic plate to ensure that relative movements can be detected. The primary source for satellite orbit information is the IGS IGU product. If this source is not available for any reason, the system switches automatically to other orbit sources like CODE products or broadcast ephemeris data. For sensors on land the kinematic coordinates are used to detect deviations from their normal, mean coordinates. The deviations or so called displacements are indicators for land mass

  2. The Earthquake Early Warning System for Southern Italy: Concepts, Capabilities and Future Perspectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Satriano, C.; Elia, L.; Martino, C.; Lancieri, M.; Zollo, A.; Iannaccone, G.

    2009-12-01

    In the framework of earthquake early warning (EEW) experimentation in Southern Italy, we have developed an integrated software platform called PRESTo (PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem). PRESTo is a methodology for regional EEW applications, based on a fully probabilistic and evolutionary approach. This means that probability density functions of source parameters and ground shaking levels are computed , which make possible to evaluate the uncertainties, and to set an appropriate level of reliability of the issued warning. Moreover, the estimates of earthquake location, size and expected ground motion are continuously updated, as new data is available in real-time from the network. The earthquake location algorithm is based on an equal differential time formulation, and a probabilistic framework for describing the hypocenter solution. The algorithm, at each time step, relies on both the information from triggered arrivals and not-yet-triggered stations. The magnitude estimation is based on a Bayesian approach, and exploits an empirical relationship that correlates the final event magnitude with the logarithm of the distance-corrected, peak ground displacement, measured over the first 2÷4 seconds of P- and S-signals. Finally, a ground motion prediction equation valid at regional scale is used to predict the peak velocities and accelerations at the target sites. The core infrastructure of the EEW system in Southern Italy is the high density, wide dynamic-range seismic network ISNet (Irpinia Seismic Network), deployed along the Apennine chain, which is frequently stricken by moderate to large magnitude damaging earthquakes. For earthquakes originating inside the ISNet seismic network, a first alarm can be issued within 4-6 seconds from the origin time, and a stable estimate with relatively small error on location (less than 5 km) and magnitude (about 0.5 magnitude units) is achieved within 10 seconds after the origin time. PRESTo can easily be

  3. A flash flood early warning system based on rainfall thresholds and daily soil moisture indexes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brigandì, Giuseppina; Tito Aronica, Giuseppe

    2015-04-01

    Main focus of the paper is to present a flash flood early warning system, developed for Civil Protection Agency for the Sicily Region, for alerting extreme hydrometeorological events by using a methodology based on the combined use of rainfall thresholds and soil moisture indexes. As matter of fact, flash flood warning is a key element to improve the Civil Protection achievements to mitigate damages and safeguard the security of people. It is a rather complicated task, particularly in those catchments with flashy response where even brief anticipations are important and welcomed. In this context, some kind of hydrological precursors can be considered to improve the effectiveness of the emergency actions (i.e. early flood warning). Now, it is well known how soil moisture is an important factor in flood formation, because the runoff generation is strongly influenced by the antecedent soil moisture conditions of the catchment. The basic idea of the work here presented is to use soil moisture indexes derived in a continuous form to define a first alert phase in a flash flood forecasting chain and then define a unique rainfall threshold for a given day for the subsequent alarm phases activation, derived as a function of the soil moisture conditions at the beginning of the day. Daily soil moisture indexes, representative of the moisture condition of the catchment, were derived by using a parsimonious and simply to use approach based on the IHACRES model application in a modified form developed by the authors. It is a simple, spatially-lumped rainfall-streamflow model, based on the SCS-CN method and on the unit hydrograph approach that requires only rainfall, streamflow and air temperature data. It consists of two modules. In the first a non linear loss model, based on the SCS-CN method, was used to transform total rainfall into effective rainfall. In the second, a linear convolution of effective rainfall was performed using a total unit hydrograph with a configuration of

  4. Tsunami early warning system for the western coast of the Black Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ionescu, Constantin; Partheniu, Raluca; Cioflan, Carmen; Constantin, Angela; Danet, Anton; Diaconescu, Mihai; Ghica, Daniela; Grecu, Bogdan; Manea, Liviu; Marmureanu, Alexandru; Moldovan, Iren; Neagoe, Cristian; Radulian, Mircea; Raileanu, Victor; Verdes, Ioan

    2014-05-01

    The Black Sea area is liable to tsunamis generation and the statistics show that more than twenty tsunamis have been observed in the past. The last tsunami was observed on 31st of March 1901 in the western part of the Black Sea, in the Shabla area. An earthquake of magnitude generated at a depth of 15 km below the sea level , triggered tsunami waves of 5 m height and material losses as well. The oldest tsunami ever recorded close to the Romanian shore-line dates from year 104. This paper emphasises the participation of The National Institute for Earth Physics (NIEP) to the development of a tsunami warning system for the western cost of the Black Sea. In collaboration with the National Institute for Marine Geology and Geoecology (GeoEcoMar), the Institute of Oceanology and the Geological Institute, the last two belonging to the Bulgarian Academy of Science, NIEP has participated as partner, to the cross-border project "Set-up and implementation of key core components of a regional early-warning system for marine geohazards of risk to the Romanian-Bulgarian Black Sea coastal area - MARINEGEOHAZARDS", coordinated by GeoEcoMar. The main purpose of the project was the implementation of an integrated early-warning system accompanied by a common decision-support tool, and enhancement of regional technical capability, for the adequate detection, assessment, forecasting and rapid notification of natural marine geohazards for the Romanian-Bulgarian Black Sea cross-border area. In the last years, NIEP has increased its interest on the marine related hazards, such as tsunamis and, in collaboration with other institutions of Romania, is acting to strengthen the cooperation and data exchanges with institutions from the Black Sea surrounding countries which already have tsunami monitoring infrastructures. In this respect, NIEP has developed a coastal network for marine seismicity, by installing three new seismic stations in the coastal area of the Black Sea, Sea Level Sensors

  5. Local tsunami early warning: the case of Rhodes island, Greece, and the NEARTOWARN (EU-DG ECHO) prevention project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papadopoulos, Gerassimos; Argyris, Ilias; Fokaefs, Anna

    2013-04-01

    Local, that is near-field, tsunamis occur in the global ocean including the Mediterranean Sea and its connected seas. For such tsunamis the first wave has very short travel time of arrival (less than 30 min.) to the closest coastal zone thus making the early warning a very difficult task. An efficient, end-to-end early tsunami warning system in local conditions should fulfill the condition that the time needed for the earthquake detection, plus the time needed for the warning message transmission to the authorities and afterwards to the general public and/or other task groups, plus the time needed for response and real evacuation is less than the travel time of the first wave. In the physiographic conditions of the Mediterranean Sea it is extremely hard to satisfy such a condition unless the total time needed to response in early warning is drastically minimized. The project Near-Field Tsunami Warning and Emergency Planning (NEARTOWARN, which is supported by the EU DG-ECHO prevention programme, aims, among others, to establish a system in Rhodes island, Greece, with the purpose to meet needs for local early tsunami warning. To minimize the time for emergency in less than 30 sec, seismic alert devices (SED's) make the core component of the system. SED's are activated and send alerting signals as soon as a P-phase of seismic wave is detected in the near-field but for a predetermined threshold of ground motion. Then, emergency starts while SED's activate remotely other devices, such as computers with data bases of pre-calculated tsunami simulations, surveillance cameras etc. The system is completed with tide-gauges, simulated tsunami scenarios and emergency planning supported by a Geographical Management System. Rhodes island in Dodecanese, South Aegean Sea, Greece, has been selected as a test-area for the development of the prototype system given that it was hit by large tsunamigenic earthquakes several times in the past.

  6. Future of Earthquake Early Warning: Quantifying Uncertainty and Making Fast Automated Decisions for Applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Stephen

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems have been rapidly developing over the past decade. Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has an EEW system that was operating during the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan, and this increased the awareness of EEW systems around the world. While longer-time earthquake prediction still faces many challenges to be practical, the availability of shorter-time EEW opens up a new door for earthquake loss mitigation. After an earthquake fault begins rupturing, an EEW system utilizes the first few seconds of recorded seismic waveform data to quickly predict the hypocenter location, magnitude, origin time and the expected shaking intensity level around the region. This early warning information is broadcast to different sites before the strong shaking arrives. The warning lead time of such a system is short, typically a few seconds to a minute or so, and the information is uncertain. These factors limit human intervention to activate mitigation actions and this must be addressed for engineering applications of EEW. This study applies a Bayesian probabilistic approach along with machine learning techniques and decision theories from economics to improve different aspects of EEW operation, including extending it to engineering applications. Existing EEW systems are often based on a deterministic approach. Often, they assume that only a single event occurs within a short period of time, which led to many false alarms after the Tohoku earthquake in Japan. This study develops a probability-based EEW algorithm based on an existing deterministic model to extend the EEW system to the case of concurrent events, which are often observed during the aftershock sequence after a large earthquake. To overcome the challenge of uncertain information and short lead time of EEW, this study also develops an earthquake probability-based automated decision-making (ePAD) framework to make robust decision for EEW mitigation applications. A cost-benefit model that

  7. The Ancona Early Warning Centre, Instrumentation and Continuous Monitoring of the Landslide

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cardellini, S.

    2013-12-01

    The 'Grande frana di Ancona' is an deep-seated landslide reactivated in 1982 after a long period of precipitation. The landslide involves clay and silty clay layers (Pliocene-Pleistocene), fractured with different OCR parameter, alternated with thin sand levels. Overlapped sliding zones are active (maximum depth: 100-120 m, maximum depth 1982 event is 75 m bgl). All the investigations aimed at the consolidation preliminary design in 2000, but the plan concluded that a final consolidation was impossible. Ancona Administration decided then to 'live with the landslide' reducing nevertheless the risk for the people living there. In 2002 a regional law was specifically issued for the people living in the landslide, to give Ancona Administration the responsibility of creating an Early Warning System and an Emergency Plan for people. It's active a surface monitoring system based on 7 total stations and 33 geodetic GPS integrated by a subsurface in place geotechnical system based on 3 DMS multiparametric columns installed down to 95 m depth. Surface Monitoring system The combination of the different instruments: GPS, Automatic Robotic Stations and the clinometric sensors allows us to monitor in the 3D (3D, X, Y, Z) a great number of points previously identified, to keep them under supervision with different measuring technical and from different control positions. The adoption of the geodetic GPS at dual frequency assure an high quality of the GPS measures, and a greater versatility at all the system. The measuring cycle is set up on 30 minutes, but in emergency or after a long rainy period, the system can operate on every points of the dual frequency GPS net also in Real Time RTK, and with the 7 Automatic Robotic Stations. Geotechnical monitoring (DMS) The in place Geotechnical Monitoring System DMS (patents and trade mark CSG srl -Italy) was installed in February 2009. It is made by n°3 Modular Dynamic System columns positioned inside borehole 100 m depth. DMS columns

  8. The Earthquake Early Warning System In Southern Italy: Performance Tests And Next Developments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zollo, A.; Elia, L.; Martino, C.; Colombelli, S.; Emolo, A.; Festa, G.; Iannaccone, G.

    2011-12-01

    PRESTo (PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem) is the software platform for Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) in Southern Italy, that integrates recent algorithms for real-time earthquake location, magnitude estimation and damage assessment, into a highly configurable and easily portable package. The system is under active experimentation based on the Irpinia Seismic Network (ISNet). PRESTo processes the live streams of 3C acceleration data for P-wave arrival detection and, while an event is occurring, promptly performs event detection and provides location, magnitude estimations and peak ground shaking predictions at target sites. The earthquake location is obtained by an evolutionary, real-time probabilistic approach based on an equal differential time formulation. At each time step, it uses information from both triggered and not-yet-triggered stations. Magnitude estimation exploits an empirical relationship that correlates it to the filtered Peak Displacement (Pd), measured over the first 2-4 s of P-signal. Peak ground-motion parameters at any distance can be finally estimated by ground motion prediction equations. Alarm messages containing the updated estimates of these parameters can thus reach target sites before the destructive waves, enabling automatic safety procedures. Using the real-time data streaming from the ISNet network, PRESTo has produced a bulletin for about a hundred low-magnitude events occurred during last two years. Meanwhile, the performances of the EEW system were assessed off-line playing-back the records for moderate and large events from Italy, Spain and Japan and synthetic waveforms for large historical events in Italy. These tests have shown that, when a dense seismic network is deployed in the fault area, PRESTo produces reliable estimates of earthquake location and size within 5-6 s from the event origin time (To). Estimates are provided as probability density functions whose uncertainty typically decreases with time

  9. Early Warning Indicator System: Supporting K-12 Educators in the Identification, Support, and Monitoring of At-Risk Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education, 2016

    2016-01-01

    A rise in data availability gives educators the opportunity to tailor instructional practices and interventions to student needs and invest resources in areas where students require the most support. Massachusetts developed the Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS), which synthesizes the wealth of student data available in the state, including…

  10. Understanding the High School Proficiency Test and the Early Warning Test in Relation to HCCC Enrollment Trends.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taffy, Fred

    The Grade 11 High School Proficiency Test (HSPT) and the New Jersey Early Warning Test (EWT) are two key standardized tests that indicate academic ability of county high school graduates which colleges will need to address. While HSPT scores for county high school districts reflect a range of competency in reading, math, and writing, the majority…

  11. [Research on early warning signals of adverse drug reactions to parenterally administered xiyanping based on spontaneous reporting system (SRS) data].

    PubMed

    Wang, Zhi-Fei; Xiang, Yong-Yang; Xie, Yan-Ming

    2013-09-01

    This article focused on early warning signals regarding the safety of parenterally administered Xiyanping. The study data was obtained from reports made between 2005-2012 from the national spontaneous reporting system (SRS). Proportion reporting ratio (PRR) and Bayesian confidence propagation neural network (BCPNN) algorithms were used to analyse: erythra, pruritus, anaphylactoid reactions and shiver with cold, these 4 adverse drug reactions had a total count of more than 500 events. The article found that Xiyanping's incidence rate of erythra was higher than for background-drugs in every year and in every season. Pruritus was an early warning signal in the second season of 2009, and anaphylactoid reaction was an early warning signal in the fourth season of 2011 and in the second season of 2012. There was however no early warning signal indicated by shiver with cold. This data indicates that erythra maybe an adverse drug reactions to parenterally administered Xiyanping, and if the incidence rate of pruritus and anaphylactoid reaction rises attention should be paid to its safety. PMID:24471321

  12. Simulated NASA Satellite Data Products for the NOAA Integrated Coral Reef Observation Network/Coral Reef Early Warning System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Estep, Leland; Spruce, Joseph P.

    2007-01-01

    This RPC (Rapid Prototyping Capability) experiment will demonstrate the use of VIIRS (Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite) and LDCM (Landsat Data Continuity Mission) sensor data as significant input to the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) ICON/ CREWS (Integrated Coral Reef Observation System/Coral Reef Early Warning System). The project affects the Coastal Management Program Element of the Applied Sciences Program.

  13. Learning by Teaching: Undergraduate Engineering Students Improving a Community's Response Capability to an Early Warning System

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Suvannatsiri, Ratchasak; Santichaianant, Kitidech; Murphy, Elizabeth

    2015-01-01

    This paper reports on a project in which students designed, constructed and tested a model of an existing early warning system with simulation of debris flow in a context of a landslide. Students also assessed rural community members' knowledge of this system and subsequently taught them to estimate the time needed for evacuation of the…

  14. Comparing Methodologies for Developing an Early Warning System: Classification and Regression Tree Model versus Logistic Regression. REL 2015-077

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Koon, Sharon; Petscher, Yaacov

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this report was to explicate the use of logistic regression and classification and regression tree (CART) analysis in the development of early warning systems. It was motivated by state education leaders' interest in maintaining high classification accuracy while simultaneously improving practitioner understanding of the rules…

  15. On Track for Success: The Use of Early Warning Indicator and Intervention Systems to Build a Grad Nation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bruce, Mary; Bridgeland, John M.; Fox, Joanna Hornig; Balfanz, Robert

    2011-01-01

    Over the past decade, schools, districts, and states have become increasingly savvy with data collection and analysis to drive student outcomes. The development and use of Early Warning Indicator and Intervention Systems (EWS) are at the cutting edge of the data- driven, outcomes-focused, high-impact education movement. These systems can increase…

  16. Dynamic changes in antibody levels as an early warning of Salmonella Dublin in bovine dairy herds.

    PubMed

    Stockmarr, A; Bødker, R; Nielsen, L R

    2013-01-01

    Salmonella Dublin is a bacterium that causes disease and production losses in cattle herds. In Denmark, a surveillance and control program was initiated in 2002 to monitor and reduce the prevalence of Salmonella Dublin. In dairy herds, the surveillance includes herd classification based on bulk tank milk measurements of antibodies directed against Salmonella Dublin at 3-mo intervals. In this study, an "alarm herd" concept, based on the dynamic progression of these repeated measurements, was formulated such that it contains predictive power for Salmonella Dublin herd classification change from "likely free of infection" to "likely infected" in the following quarter of the year, thus warning the farmer 3 mo earlier than the present system. The alarm herd concept was defined through aberrations from a stable development over time of antibody levels. For suitable parameter choices, alarm herd status was a positive predictor for Salmonella Dublin status change in dairy herds, in that alarm herds had a higher risk of changing status in the following quarter compared with nonalarm herds. This was despite the fact that both alarm and nonalarm herds had antibody levels that did not indicate the herds being "likely infected" according to the existing classification system in the present quarter. The alarm herd concept can be used as a new early warning element in the existing surveillance program. Additionally, to improve accuracy of herd classification, the alarm herd concept could be incorporated into a model including other known risk factors for change in herd classification. Furthermore, the model could be extended to other diseases monitored in similar ways. PMID:24140322

  17. A nationwide web-based automated system for outbreak early detection and rapid response in China

    PubMed Central

    Lan, Yajia; Wang, Jinfeng; Ma, Jiaqi; Jin, Lianmei; Sun, Qiao; Lv, Wei; Lai, Shengjie; Liao, Yilan; Hu, Wenbiao

    2011-01-01

    Timely reporting, effective analyses and rapid distribution of surveillance data can assist in detecting the aberration of disease occurrence and further facilitate a timely response. In China, a new nationwide web-based automated system for outbreak detection and rapid response was developed in 2008. The China Infectious Disease Automated-alert and Response System (CIDARS) was developed by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention based on the surveillance data from the existing electronic National Notifiable Infectious Diseases Reporting Information System (NIDRIS) started in 2004. NIDRIS greatly improved the timeliness and completeness of data reporting with real-time reporting information via the Internet. CIDARS further facilitates the data analysis, aberration detection, signal dissemination, signal response and information communication needed by public health departments across the country. In CIDARS, three aberration detection methods are used to detect the unusual occurrence of 28 notifiable infectious diseases at the county level and transmit information either in real time or on a daily basis. The Internet, computers and mobile phones are used to accomplish rapid signal generation and dissemination, timely reporting and reviewing of the signal response results. CIDARS has been used nationwide since 2008; all Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in China at the county, prefecture, provincial and national levels are involved in the system. It assists with early outbreak detection at the local level and prompts reporting of unusual disease occurrences or potential outbreaks to CDCs throughout the country. PMID:23908878

  18. A large Legionnaires' disease outbreak in Pamplona, Spain: early detection, rapid control and no case fatality

    PubMed Central

    CASTILLA, J.; BARRICARTE, A.; ALDAZ, J.; GARCÍA CENOZ, M.; FERRER, T.; PELAZ, C.; PINEDA, S.; BALADRÓN, B.; MARTÍN, I.; GOÑI, B.; ARATAJO, P.; CHAMORRO, J.; LAMEIRO, F.; TORROBA, L.; DORRONSORO, I.; MARTÍNEZ-ARTOLA, V.; ESPARZA, M. J.; GASTAMINZA, M. A.; FRAILE, P.; ALDAZ, P.

    2008-01-01

    SUMMARY An outbreak of Legionnaire's disease was detected in Pamplona, Spain, on 1 June 2006. Patients with pneumonia were tested to detect Legionella pneumophila antigen in urine (Binax Now; Binax Inc., Scarborough, ME, USA), and all 146 confirmed cases were interviewed. The outbreak was related to district 2 (22 012 inhabitants), where 45% of the cases lived and 50% had visited; 5% lived in neighbouring districts. The highest incidence was found in the resident population of district 2 (3/1000 inhabitants), section 2 (14/1000). All 31 cooling towers of district 2 were analysed. L. pneumophila antigen (Binax Now) was detected in four towers, which were closed on 2 June. Only the strain isolated in a tower situated in section 2 of district 2 matched all five clinical isolates, as assessed by mAb and two genotyping methods, AFLP and PFGE. Eight days after closing the towers, new cases ceased appearing. Early detection and rapid coordinated medical and environmental actions permitted immediate control of the outbreak and probably contributed to the null case fatality. PMID:17662166

  19. Moving towards the operational seismogeodesy component of earthquake and tsunami early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haase, J. S.; Bock, Y.; Geng, J.; Melgar, D.; Crowell, B. W.; Squibb, M. B.

    2013-12-01

    A robust technique for rapid estimation of extended earthquake source properties from seismogeodetic (combined seismic acceleration and GPS displacement) time series has been demonstrated for recent large events. By simulating the recording and analysis of GPS and seismic data in real time using Precise Point Positioning with Ambiguity Resolution (PPP-AR) we have determined the latency in creating a fast-Centroid Moment Tensor (fast-CMT) solution to be less than 3 minutes following the initiation of rupture for the 2011 M9.0 Tohoku-Oki tsunamigenic earthquake. This would have made an estimate of the ~290 km source length available in time to update an early warning of the impending tsunami with a better estimate of the wave height. Combining this information with wave gauge data, which could also be implemented in real time, provides improved estimates of tsunami run-up heights at coastal sites (see Melgar et al., 'Near-field tsunami models with rapid earthquake source inversions', this meeting). The fast-CMT method produces continuous updates of a static source inversion using many possible line source fault geometries to determine a rough estimate of the fault slip and area that does not rely on a priori assumptions about fault zone geometry. The key to this new capability is robust, fast, and accurate analysis of real-time 1Hz GPS data that incorporates the following advances: 1) a real time GPS service that produces satellite clocks and fractional cycle biases available for positioning individual sites within the San Andreas fault system and Cascadia subduction zone. This means cpu requirements increase linearly with the number of sites in PPP mode, increasing the feasibility of analyzing data from large dense networks in real time; 2) the tightly-coupled Kalman filter combination of GPS observations with local accelerometer data. This provides ambiguity resolution comparable in quality to a network solution and real-time precision of < 15mm horizontal standard

  20. Caltech/USGS Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN): Infrastructure upgrade to support Earthquake Early Warning (EEW)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhadha, R. J.; Hauksson, E.; Boese, M.; Felizardo, C.; Thomas, V. I.; Yu, E.; Given, D. D.; Heaton, T. H.; Hudnut, K. W.

    2013-12-01

    The SCSN is the modern digital ground motion seismic network in Southern California and performs the following tasks: 1) Operates remote seismic stations and the central data processing systems in Pasadena; 2) Generates and reports real-time products including location, magnitude, ShakeMap, aftershock probabilities and others; 3) Responds to FEMA, CalOES, media, and public inquiries about earthquakes; 4) Manages the production, archival, and distribution of waveforms, phase picks, and other data at the SCEDC; 5) Contributes to development and implementation of the demonstration EEW system called CISN ShakeAlert. Initially, the ShakeAlert project was funded through the US Geological Survey (USGS) and in early 2012, the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation provided three years of new funding for EEW research and development for the US west coast. Recently, we have also received some Urban Areas Security Initiative (UASI) funding to enhance the EEW capabilities for the local UASI region by making our system overall faster, more reliable and redundant than the existing system. The additional and upgraded stations will be capable of decreasing latency and ensuring data delivery by using more reliable and redundant telemetry pathways. Overall, this will enhance the reliability of the earthquake early warnings by providing denser station coverage and more resilient data centers than before. * Seismic Datalogger upgrade: replaces existing dataloggers with modern equipment capable of sending one-second uncompressed packets and utilizing redundant Ethernet telemetry. * GPS upgrade: replaces the existing GPS receivers and antennas, especially at "zipper array" sites near the major faults, with receivers that perform on-board precise point positioning to calculate position and velocity in real time and stream continuous data for use in EEW calculations. * New co-located seismic/GPS stations: increases station density and reduces early warning delays that are incurred by travel

  1. Early warning and clinical outcome prediction of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure

    PubMed Central

    Chen, En-Qiang; Zeng, Fan; Zhou, Ling-Yun; Tang, Hong

    2015-01-01

    Hepatitis B virus (HBV) associated acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is an increasingly recognized fatal liver disease encompassing a severe acute exacerbation of liver function in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Despite the introduction of an artificial liver support system and antiviral therapy, the short-term prognosis of HBV-ACLF is still extremely poor unless emergency liver transplantation is performed. In such a situation, stopping or slowing the progression of CHB to ACLF at an early stage is the most effective way of reducing the morbidity and mortality of HBV-ACLF. It is well-known that the occurrence and progression of HBV-ACLF is associated with many factors, and the outcomes of HBV-ACLF patients can be significantly improved if timely and appropriate interventions are provided. In this review, we highlight recent developments in early warning and clinical outcome prediction in patients with HBV-ACLF and provide an outlook for future research in this field. PMID:26576085

  2. Prototype early warning system for heart disease detection using Android Application.

    PubMed

    Zennifa, Fadilla; Fitrilina; Kamil, Husnil; Iramina, Keiji

    2014-01-01

    Heart Disease affects approximately 70 million people worldwide where most people do not even know the symptoms. This research examines the prototype of early warning system for heart disease by android application. It aims to facilitate users to early detect heart disease which can be used independently. To build the application in android phone, variable centered intelligence rule system (VCIRS) as decision makers and pulse sensor - Arduino as heart rate detector were applied in this study. Moreover, in Arduino, the heart rate will become an input for symptoms in Android Application. The output of this system is the conclusion statement of users diagnosed with either coronary heart disease, hypertension heart disease, rheumatic heart disease or do not get any kind of heart disease. The result of diagnosis followed by analysis of the value of usage variable rate (VUR) rule usage rate (RUR) and node usage rate (NUR) that shows the value of the rule that will increase when the symptoms frequently appear. This application was compared with the medical analysis from 35 cases of heart disease and it showed concordance between diagnosis from android application and expert diagnosis of the doctors. PMID:25570737

  3. Sustained live poultry market surveillance contributes to early warnings for human infection with avian influenza viruses.

    PubMed

    Fang, Shisong; Bai, Tian; Yang, Lei; Wang, Xin; Peng, Bo; Liu, Hui; Geng, Yijie; Zhang, Renli; Ma, Hanwu; Zhu, Wenfei; Wang, Dayan; Cheng, Jinquan; Shu, Yuelong

    2016-01-01

    Sporadic human infections with the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A (H5N6) virus have been reported in different provinces in China since April 2014. From June 2015 to January 2016, routine live poultry market (LPM) surveillance was conducted in Shenzhen, Guangdong Province. H5N6 viruses were not detected until November 2015. The H5N6 virus-positive rate increased markedly beginning in December 2015, and viruses were detected in LPMs in all districts of the city. Coincidently, two human cases with histories of poultry exposure developed symptoms and were diagnosed as H5N6-positive in Shenzhen during late December 2015 and early January 2016. Similar viruses were identified in environmental samples collected in the LPMs and the patients. In contrast to previously reported H5N6 viruses, viruses with six internal genes derived from the H9N2 or H7N9 viruses were detected in the present study. The increased H5N6 virus-positive rate in the LPMs and the subsequent human infections demonstrated that sustained LPM surveillance for avian influenza viruses provides an early warning for human infections. Interventions, such as LPM closures, should be immediately implemented to reduce the risk of human infection with the H5N6 virus when the virus is widely detected during LPM surveillance. PMID:27485495

  4. Fabrication and evaluation of polymeric early-warning fire-alarm devices. [combustion products

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Senturia, S. D.

    1975-01-01

    The electrical resistivities were investigated of some polymers known to be enhanced by the presence of certain gases. This was done to make a device capable of providing early warning to fire through its response with the gases produced in the early phases of combustion. Eight polymers were investigated: poly(phenyl acetylene), poly(p-aminophenyl acetylene), poly(p-nitrophenyl acetylene), poly(p-formamidophenyl acetylene), poly(ethynyl ferrocene), poly(ethynyl carborane), poly(ethynyl pyridine), and the polymer made from 1,2,3,6 tetramethyl pyridazine. A total of 40 usable thin-film sandwich devices and a total of 70 usable interdigitated-electrode lock-and-key devices were fabricated. The sandwich devices were used for measurements of contact linearity, polymer conductivity, and polymer dielectric constant. The lock-and-key devices were used to determine the response of the polymers to a spectrum of gases that included ammonia, carbon nonoxide, carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, ethylene, acrolein, water vapor, and normal laboratory air. Strongest responses were to water vapor, ammonia, and acrolein, and depending on the polymer, weaker responses to carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, and carbon monoxide were observed. A quantitative theory of device operation, capable of accounting for observed device leakage current and sensitivity, was developed. A prototype detection/alarm system was designed and built for use in demonstrating sensor performance.

  5. Global situational awareness and early warning of high-consequence climate change.

    SciTech Connect

    Backus, George A.; Carr, Martin J.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick

    2009-08-01

    Global monitoring systems that have high spatial and temporal resolution, with long observational baselines, are needed to provide situational awareness of the Earth's climate system. Continuous monitoring is required for early warning of high-consequence climate change and to help anticipate and minimize the threat. Global climate has changed abruptly in the past and will almost certainly do so again, even in the absence of anthropogenic interference. It is possible that the Earth's climate could change dramatically and suddenly within a few years. An unexpected loss of climate stability would be equivalent to the failure of an engineered system on a grand scale, and would affect billions of people by causing agricultural, economic, and environmental collapses that would cascade throughout the world. The probability of such an abrupt change happening in the near future may be small, but it is nonzero. Because the consequences would be catastrophic, we argue that the problem should be treated with science-informed engineering conservatism, which focuses on various ways a system can fail and emphasizes inspection and early detection. Such an approach will require high-fidelity continuous global monitoring, informed by scientific modeling.

  6. NCAR activities related to translating climate and weather information into infectious-disease and other public-health early warnings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Warner, T.; Monaghan, A.; Hopson, T.

    2010-09-01

    The atmosphere can influence the spread of human and agricultural infectious diseases through a number of different mechanisms, including the effect of the atmosphere on the health of the pathogen itself, the health and number of disease vectors, human behavior, wind transport, and flooding. Through knowledge of the statistical or physical relationships between disease incidence, for example outbreaks, and weather or climate conditions, it is possible to translate predictions of the atmosphere into predictions of disease spread or incidence. Medium range forecasts of weeks can allow redistribution of vaccines and medical personnel to locations that will be in greatest need. Inter-seasonal forecasts, e.g. based on the ENSO cycle, can provide long-lead-time information for disease early-warning systems, which can guide the manufacture of vaccines and inform aid agencies about future requirements. And knowledge of longer-term trends in climate conditions, associated, for example, with increases in green-house gases, can be used for development of infectious-disease mitigation and prevention policies. Because of the existence of complex physical, biological, and societal aspects to the links between atmospheric conditions and disease, prediction systems must be constructed based on knowledge of multiple disciplines. To be described in the presentation are activities at the National Center for Atmospheric Research that involve the coupling of atmospheric models with infectious-disease models and decision-support systems. These include 1) the use of operational multi-week weather forecasts to estimate the spatial and temporal variability of the threat of bacterial meningitis in West Africa, 2) climate and spatial risk modeling of human plague in Uganda, 3) a study of how climate variability and human landscape modification interact to influence key aspects of both mosquito vector ecology and human behavior, and how they influence the increased incidence of dengue fever

  7. A new Bayesian Inference-based Phase Associator for Earthquake Early Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meier, Men-Andrin; Heaton, Thomas; Clinton, John; Wiemer, Stefan

    2013-04-01

    State of the art network-based Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems can provide warnings for large magnitude 7+ earthquakes. Although regions in the direct vicinity of the epicenter will not receive warnings prior to damaging shaking, real-time event characterization is available before the destructive S-wave arrival across much of the strongly affected region. In contrast, in the case of the more frequent medium size events, such as the devastating 1994 Mw6.7 Northridge, California, earthquake, providing timely warning to the smaller damage zone is more difficult. For such events the "blind zone" of current systems (e.g. the CISN ShakeAlert system in California) is similar in size to the area over which severe damage occurs. We propose a faster and more robust Bayesian inference-based event associator, that in contrast to the current standard associators (e.g. Earthworm Binder), is tailored to EEW and exploits information other than only phase arrival times. In particular, the associator potentially allows for reliable automated event association with as little as two observations, which, compared to the ShakeAlert system, would speed up the real-time characterizations by about ten seconds and thus reduce the blind zone area by up to 80%. We compile an extensive data set of regional and teleseismic earthquake and noise waveforms spanning a wide range of earthquake magnitudes and tectonic regimes. We pass these waveforms through a causal real-time filterbank with passband filters between 0.1 and 50Hz, and, updating every second from the event detection, extract the maximum amplitudes in each frequency band. Using this dataset, we define distributions of amplitude maxima in each passband as a function of epicentral distance and magnitude. For the real-time data, we pass incoming broadband and strong motion waveforms through the same filterbank and extract an evolving set of maximum amplitudes in each passband. We use the maximum amplitude distributions to check

  8. NOAA/USGS Demonstration Flash-Flood and Debris-Flow Early-Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Restrepo, P.; Cannon, S.; Laber, J.; Jorgensen, D.; Werner, K.

    2009-04-01

    Flash floods and debris flows are common following wildfires in southern California. On 25 December 2003, sixteen people were swept to their deaths by debris flows generated from basins in the San Bernardino Mountains that burned the previous fall. In an effort to reduce loss of life by floods and debris flows, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the United States Geological Survey (USGS) established a prototype flash flood and debris flow early warning system for recently burned areas located in eight counties of southern California in the fall of 2005. This prototype system combines the existing NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS) Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction (FFMP) system and USGS rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for debris flow and flash flood occurrence. Separate sets of thresholds are defined for the occurrence of debris flows and flash floods in response to storms during 1) the first winter after a fire, and 2) following a year of vegetative recovery. The FFMP was modified to identify when both flash floods and debris flows are likely to occur based on comparisons between precipitation (including radar estimates, in situ measurements, and short-term forecasts) and the rainfall intensity-duration thresholds developed specifically for burned areas. Advisory outlooks, watches, and warnings are disseminated to emergency management personnel through NOAA's Advanced Weather Information Processing System (AWIPS). The FFMP provides a cost-effective and efficient approach to implement a warning system on a 24-hour, 7-day-a-week basis. In 2004 the system was advanced to incorporate a web-based procedure developed by the NWS Weather Forecast Office (WFO) in Oxnard, CA that provides information about each fire to forecasters, and displays hazard maps generated by the USGS that show those basins most likely to produce the largest debris flow events within recently burned areas. During four years of operation, the WFOs in Oxnard

  9. How to Decide? Multi-Objective Early-Warning Monitoring Networks for Water Suppliers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bode, Felix; Loschko, Matthias; Nowak, Wolfgang

    2015-04-01

    Groundwater is a resource for drinking water and hence needs to be protected from contaminations. However, many well catchments include an inventory of known and unknown risk sources, which cannot be eliminated, especially in urban regions. As a matter of risk control, all these risk sources should be monitored. A one-to-one monitoring situation for each risk source would lead to a cost explosion and is even impossible for unknown risk sources. However, smart optimization concepts could help to find promising low-cost monitoring network designs. In this work we develop a concept to plan monitoring networks using multi-objective optimization. Our considered objectives are to maximize the probability of detecting all contaminations, to enhance the early warning time before detected contaminations reach the drinking water well, and to minimize the installation and operating costs of the monitoring network. Using multi-objectives optimization, we avoid the problem of having to weight these objectives to a single objective-function. These objectives are clearly competing, and it is impossible to know their mutual trade-offs beforehand - each catchment differs in many points and it is hardly possible to transfer knowledge between geological formations and risk inventories. To make our optimization results more specific to the type of risk inventory in different catchments we do risk prioritization of all known risk sources. Due to the lack of the required data, quantitative risk ranking is impossible. Instead, we use a qualitative risk ranking to prioritize the known risk sources for monitoring. Additionally, we allow for the existence of unknown risk sources that are totally uncertain in location and in their inherent risk. Therefore, they can neither be located nor ranked. Instead, we represent them by a virtual line of risk sources surrounding the production well. We classify risk sources into four different categories: severe, medium and tolerable for known risk

  10. Developing Drought Outlook Forums in Support of a Regional Drought Early Warning Information System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mcnutt, C. A.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Darby, L. S.; Verdin, J. P.; Webb, R. S.

    2011-12-01

    The National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) Act of 2006 (P.L. 109-430) charged NIDIS with developing the leadership and partnerships necessary to implement an integrated national drought monitoring and forecasting system that creates a drought "early warning system". The drought early warning information system should be capable of providing accurate, timely and integrated information on drought conditions at the relevant spatial scale to facilitate proactive decisions aimed at minimizing the economic, social and ecosystem losses associated with drought. As part of this effort, NIDIS has held Regional Drought Outlook Forums in several regions of the U.S. The purpose of the Forums is to inform practices that reduce vulnerability to drought through an interactive and collaborative process that includes the users of the information. The Forums have focused on providing detailed assessments of present conditions and impacts, comparisons with past drought events, and seasonal predictions including discussion of the state and expected evolution of the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomena. Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) that include close interaction between information providers and users are not a new concept, however. RCOFs started in Africa in the 1990s in response to the 1997-98 El Niño and have since expanded to South America, Asia, the Pacific islands, and the Caribbean. As a result of feedback from the RCOFs a large body of research has gone into improving seasonal forecasts and the capacity of the users to apply the information in a way that improves their decision-making. Over time, it has become clear that more is involved than just improving the interaction between the climate forecasters and decision-makers. NIDIS is using the RCOF approach as one component in a larger effort to develop Regional Drought Early Warning Information Systems (RDEWS) around the U.S. Using what has been learned over the past decade in the RCOF process

  11. An Alternative for In-Depth Monitoring of Tsunami Early Warning Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lindner, L.; Gensch, S.; Henneberger, R.; Lendholt, M.; Hammitzsch, M.

    2012-04-01

    This article presents a concept for in-depth monitoring of Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS) developed in the projects German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) , Distant Early Warning System (DEWS) and Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC). Traditionally such systems are monitored using existing standard software solutions such as Nagios with different levels of customization. This talk discusses the operational shortcomings of monitoring larger heterogeneous, loosely coupled infrastructures that are not integrated within a service oriented architecture (SOA) framework providing sufficient monitoring utilities. Such a service-level framework could provide the proper means to monitor service interactions. Without such a framework e.g. in case of a loosely coupled component architecture, the means for a proper component-level supervision do not exist. This manifest in creating Nagios-based "service" checks for such an architecture. Service monitoring using Nagios employs active and passive service checks mostly via ICMP, SSH. The control flow is pulling status from the supervised hosts. When monitoring components, interacting via interfaces not necessarily exposed to a service-level monitoring, pulling the component status becomes inefficient. Nagios administrators bypass this by implementing host-local inspection checks that simulate testable service endpoints to Nagios. We believe that such checks fundamentally fail the service concept of Nagios. The main problems with this approach are (1) duplicating component code by implementation white box tests based on the internal component control flow or/and data structure and (2) an inevitable divergence of component behaviour and check assumptions over the component development life-cycle. This amounts to a continuously needed administrative action to update the service checks and to inspect whether recent errors reported by the monitoring are real errors or

  12. Efforts Toward an Early Warning Crop Monitor for Countries at Risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Budde, M. E.; Verdin, J. P.; Barker, B.; Humber, M. L.; Becker-Reshef, I.; Justice, C. O.; Magadzire, T.; Galu, G.; Rodriguez, M.; Jayanthi, H.

    2015-12-01

    Assessing crop growing conditions is a crucial aspect of monitoring food security in the developing world. One of the core components of the Group on Earth Observations - Global Agricultural Monitoring (GEOGLAM) targets monitoring Countries at Risk (component 3). The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) has a long history of utilizing remote sensing and crop modeling to address food security threats in the form of drought, floods, pest infestation, and climate change in some of the world's most at risk countries. FEWS NET scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center and the University of Maryland Department of Geography have undertaken efforts to address component 3, by promoting the development of a collaborative Early Warning Crop Monitor (EWCM) that would specifically address Countries at Risk. A number of organizations utilize combinations of satellite earth observations, field campaigns, network partner inputs, and crop modeling techniques to monitor crop conditions throughout the world. Agencies such as the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), United Nations World Food Programme (WFP), and the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) provide agricultural monitoring information and reporting across a broad number of areas at risk and in many cases, organizations routinely report on the same countries. The latter offers an opportunity for collaboration on crop growing conditions among agencies. The reduction of uncertainty and achievement of consensus will help strengthen confidence in decisions to commit resources for mitigation of acute food insecurity and support for resilience and development programs. In addition, the development of a collaborative global EWCM will provide each of the partner agencies with the ability to quickly gather crop condition information for areas where they may not typically work or have access to local networks. Using a framework

  13. Towards developing drought impact functions to advance drought monitoring and early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bachmair, Sophie; Stahl, Kerstin; Hannaford, Jamie; Svoboda, Mark

    2015-04-01

    In natural hazard analysis, damage functions (also referred to as vulnerability or susceptibility functions) relate hazard intensity to the negative effects of the hazard event, often expressed as damage ratio or monetary loss. While damage functions for floods and seismic hazards have gained considerable attention, there is little knowledge on how drought intensity translates into ecological and socioeconomic impacts. One reason for this is the multifaceted nature of drought affecting different domains of the hydrological cycle and different sectors of human activity (for example, recognizing meteorological - agricultural - hydrological - socioeconomic drought) leading to a wide range of drought impacts. Moreover, drought impacts are often non-structural and hard to quantify or monetarize (e.g. impaired navigability of streams, bans on domestic water use, increased mortality of aquatic species). Knowledge on the relationship between drought intensity and drought impacts, i.e. negative environmental, economic or social effects experienced under drought conditions, however, is vital to identify critical thresholds for drought impact occurrence. Such information may help to improve drought monitoring and early warning (M&EW), one goal of the international DrIVER project (Drought Impacts: Vulnerability thresholds in monitoring and Early-warning Research). The aim of this study is to test the feasibility of designing "drought impact functions" for case study areas in Europe (Germany and UK) and the United States to derive thresholds meaningful for drought impact occurrence; to account for the multidimensionality of drought impacts, we use the broader term "drought impact function" over "damage function". First steps towards developing empirical drought impact functions are (1) to identify meaningful indicators characterizing the hazard intensity (e.g. indicators expressing a precipitation or streamflow deficit), (2) to identify suitable variables representing impacts

  14. A new approach for tsunami early warning using tsunami observations in a source region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tanioka, Y.

    2015-12-01

    After the 2011 devastating Tohoku tsunami, improvement of tsunami early warning system is one of key issues in Japan. Japanese government was decided to install 125 ocean bottom pressure sensors and seismometers with a cable system along the Japan and Kurile trench. Each sensor is separated by 30km. We should develop a new approach for real-time tsunami forecast using those newly available data combined with GNSS data or seismic data. A well-recognized problem to use tsunami data at pressure sensors on the top of tsunami source area is a fact that a large vertical coseismic deformation due to a large earthquake cannot be observed at those sensors. The sensors observe a tsunami wave when it starts to propagate. Because of that problem, GSNN data or seismic data are typically used to estimate the coseismic deformation for the tsunami numerical simulation. In this paper, we develop a new technique, which solve the problem. Our technique uses the observations at pressure sensors on the tsunami source area as an input to compute the tsunami directly. Actual tsunami heights at the sensors on the source area is unknown because the cosismic vertical deformation is unknown. However, we can observe directly the time derivative of tsunami heights at those sensors. Time derivatives of tsunami heights at each point are used as inputs to compute the tsunami height distribution in the calculated area. Then we can numerically compute a tsunami using a traditional finite difference technique from the tsunami height distribution computed. For numerical test, first, we compute the synthetic tsunamis using the fault model with 1 minute grid system. The computed tsunami waveforms at 15 minutes x 15 minutes grid points are used as the observed data for this new technique. Each observed point is separated by 15 minutes, about 30km. The result show that the accuracy of tsunami computation is good enough for tsunami forecast. Tsunami generation with a long duration, such as tsunami

  15. ElarmS Earthquake Early Warning System Enhancements and Performance Evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henson, I. H.; Neuhauser, D. S.; Allen, R. M.

    2014-12-01

    ElarmS is an earthquake early warning system that contributes alerts to CISN ShakeAlert, a prototype end-to-end earthquake early warning system being developed and tested by the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN). ElarmS is one of several systems that contribute to CISN ShakeAlert. The UC Berkeley ElarmS system consists of multiple continuous-waveform processors and trigger-association processors running at three geographical locations and communicating via the Apache ActiveMQ Messaging system. With performance monitoring tools, we review the system component latencies and earthquake hypocenter estimations. Statistics are presented for hypocenter and origin time accuracy and alert times latencies for the previous year by geographic regions. We are also testing the ElarmS system by replaying the raw waveform data for historical earthquakes of interest. This allows us to check the signal detection algorithm, the trigger associator and the magnitude estimator. Over the last year, ElarmS successfully alerted on all significant earthquakes (M>=4.5, 10 earthquakes) and generated no false alarms. This includes events in Los Angeles, Santa Rosa, offshore Eureka, and the southern Sierra. The magnitude estimates were within 0.5 magnitude units in all cases. The largest event was the M6.8 event offshore of Eureka. The initial ElarmS magnitude estimate was M6.3 with a location 7 km from the true (offshore) location. ElarmS also alerted on all of the larger (M>=4.5) aftershocks. The speed of the alert depends on the quality of the seismic network around the epicenter. For the M5.1 Los Angeles Le Habra event the alert was 4.2 sec after the origin time, this is typical for events in the LA region. For the Santa Rosa event the alert was 6.8 sec after the origin time, 10.8 for the southern Sierra event, and 25.7 for the (offshore) Eureka earthquake. Comparing the performance of ElarmS across the state for a wider range of magnitudes (M>=3) the effect of variable seismic

  16. Exploring drought vulnerability in Africa: an indicator based analysis to inform early warning systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naumann, G.; Barbosa, P.; Garrote, L.; Iglesias, A.; Vogt, J.

    2013-10-01

    Drought vulnerability is a complex concept that includes both biophysical and socio-economic drivers of drought impact that determine capacity to cope with drought. In order to develop an efficient drought early warning system and to be prepared to mitigate upcoming drought events it is important to understand the drought vulnerability of the affected regions. We propose a composite Drought Vulnerability Indicator (DVI) that reflects different aspects of drought vulnerability evaluated at Pan-African level in four components: the renewable natural capital, the economic capacity, the human and civic resources, and the infrastructure and technology. The selection of variables and weights reflects the assumption that a society with institutional capacity and coordination, as well as with mechanisms for public participation is less vulnerable to drought; furthermore we consider that agriculture is only one of the many sectors affected by drought. The quality and accuracy of a composite indicator depends on the theoretical framework, on the data collection and quality, and on how the different components are aggregated. This kind of approach can lead to some degree of scepticism; to overcome this problem a sensitivity analysis was done in order to measure the degree of uncertainty associated with the construction of the composite indicator. Although the proposed drought vulnerability indicator relies on a number of theoretical assumptions and some degree of subjectivity, the sensitivity analysis showed that it is a robust indicator and hence able of representing the complex processes that lead to drought vulnerability. According to the DVI computed at country level, the African countries classified with higher relative vulnerability are Somalia, Burundi, Niger, Ethiopia, Mali and Chad. The analysis of the renewable natural capital component at sub-basin level shows that the basins with high to moderate drought vulnerability can be subdivided in three main different

  17. [Early warning for various internal faults of GIS based on ultraviolet spectroscopy].

    PubMed

    Zhao, Yu; Wang, Xian-pei; Hu, Hong-hong; Dai, Dang-dang; Long, Jia-chuan; Tian, Meng; Zhu, Guo-wei; Huang, Yun-guang

    2015-02-01

    As the basis of accurate diagnosis, fault early-warning of gas insulation switchgear (GIS) focuses on the time-effectiveness and the applicability. It would be significant to research the method of unified early-warning for partial discharge (PD) and overheated faults in GIS. In the present paper, SO2 is proposed as the common and typical by-product. The unified monitoring could be achieved through ultraviolet spectroscopy (UV) detection of SO2. The derivative method and Savitzky-Golay filtering are employed for baseline correction and smoothing. The wavelength range of 290-310 nm is selected for quantitative detection of SO2. Through UV method, the spectral interference of SF6 and other complex by-products, e.g., SOF2 and SOF2, can be avoided and the features of trace SO2 in GIS can be extracted. The detection system is featured by compacted structure, low maintenance and satisfactory suitability in filed surveillance. By conducting SF6 decomposition experiments, including two types of PD faults and the overheated faults between 200-400 degrees C, the feasibility of proposed UV method has been verified. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy and gas chromatography methods can be used for subsequent fault diagnosis. The different decomposition features in two kinds of faults are confirmed and the diagnosis strategy has been briefly analyzed. The main by-products under PD are SOF2 and SO2F2. The generated SO2 is significantly less than SOF2. More carbonous by-products will be generated when PD involves epoxy. By contrast, when the material of heater is stainless steel, SF6 decomposes at about 300 "C and the main by-products in overheated faults are SO2 and SO2F2. When heated over 350 degrees C, SO2 is generated much faster. SOz content stably increases when the GIS fault lasts. The faults types could be preliminarily identified based on the generation features of SO2. PMID:25970908

  18. Predicting the macroseismic intensity from early radiated P wave energy for on-site earthquake early warning in Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brondi, P.; Picozzi, M.; Emolo, A.; Zollo, A.; Mucciarelli, M.

    2015-10-01

    Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS) are potentially effective tools for risk mitigation in active seismic regions. The present study explores the possibility of predicting the macroseismic intensity within EEW timeframes using the squared velocity integral (IV2) measured on the early P wave signals, a proxy for the P wave radiated energy of earthquakes. This study shows that IV2 correlates better than the peak displacement measured on P waves with both the peak ground velocity and the Housner Intensity, with the latter being recognized by engineers as a reliable proxy for damage assessment. Therefore, using the strong motion recordings of the Italian Accelerometric Archive, a novel relationship between the parameter IV2 and the macroseismic intensity (IM) has been derived. The validity of this relationship has been assessed using the strong motion recordings of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia Strong Motion Data and Osservatorio Sismico delle Strutture databases, as well as, in the case of the MW 6, 29 May 2012 Emilia earthquake (Italy), comparing the predicted intensities with the ones observed after a macroseismic survey. Our results indicate that P wave IV2 can become a key parameter for the design of on-site EEWS, capable of proving real-time predictions of the IM at target sites.

  19. Forecasting weed distributions using climate data: a GIS early warning tool

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Holcombe, Tracy R.; Barnett, David T.; Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Kartesz, John T.

    2010-01-01

    The number of invasive exotic plant species establishing in the United States is continuing to rise. When prevention of exotic species from entering into a country fails at the national level and the species establishes, reproduces, spreads, and becomes invasive, the most successful action at a local level is early detection followed eradication. We have developed a simple geographic information system (GIS) analysis for developing watch lists for early detection of invasive exotic plants that relies upon currently available species distribution data coupled with environmental data to aid in describing coarse-scale potential distributions. This GIS analysis tool develops environmental envelopes for species based upon the known distribution of a species thought to be invasive and represents the first approximation of its potential habitat while the necessary data are collected to perform more in­-depth analyses. To validate this method we looked at a time series of species distributions for 66 species in Pacific Northwest, and northern Rocky Mountain counties. The time series analysis presented here did select counties that the invasive exotic weeds invaded in subsequent years, showing that this technique could be useful in developing watch lists for the spread of particular exotic species. We applied this same habitat-matching model based upon bioclimaric envelopes to 100 invasive exotics with various levels of known distributions within continental U.S. counties. For species with climatically limited distributions, county watch lists describe county-specific vulnerability to invasion. Species with matching habitats in a county would be added to that county's list. These watch lists can influence management decisions for early warning, control prioritization, and targeted research to determine specific locations within vulnerable counties. This tool provides useful information for rapid assessment of the potential distribution based upon climate envelopes of

  20. SafeLand guidelines for landslide monitoring and early warning systems in Europe - Design and required technology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bazin, S.

    2012-04-01

    Landslide monitoring means the comparison of landslide characteristics like areal extent, speed of movement, surface topography and soil humidity from different periods in order to assess landslide activity. An ultimate "universal" methodology for this purpose does not exist; every technology has its own advantages and disadvantages. End-users should carefully consider each one to select the methodologies that represent the best compromise between pros and cons, and are best suited for their needs. Besides monitoring technology, there are many factors governing the choice of an Early Warning System (EWS). A people-centred EWS necessarily comprises five key elements: (1) knowledge of the risks; (2) identification, monitoring, analysis and forecasting of the hazards; (3) operational centre; (4) communication or dissemination of alerts and warnings; and (5) local capabilities to respond to the warnings received. The expression "end-to-end warning system" is also used to emphasize that EWSs need to span all steps from hazard detection through to community response. The aim of the present work is to provide guidelines for establishing the different components for landslide EWSs. One of the main deliverables of the EC-FP7 SafeLand project addresses the technical and practical issues related to monitoring and early warning for landslides, and identifies the best technologies available in the context of both hazard assessment and design of EWSs. This deliverable targets the end-users and aims to facilitate the decision process by providing guidelines. For the purpose of sharing the globally accumulated expertise, a screening study was done on 14 EWSs from 8 different countries. On these bases, the report presents a synoptic view of existing monitoring methodologies and early-warning strategies and their applicability for different landslide types, scales and risk management steps. Several comprehensive checklists and toolboxes are also included to support informed

  1. Rainfall height stochastic modelling as a support tool for landslides early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Capparelli, G.; Giorgio, M.; Greco, R.; Versace, P.

    2009-04-01

    Occurrence of landslides is uneasy to predict, since it is affected by a number of variables, such as mechanical and hydraulic soil properties, slope morphology, vegetation coverage, rainfall spatial and temporal variability. Although heavy landslides frequently occurred in Campania, southern Italy, during the last decade, no complete data sets are available for natural slopes where landslides occurred. As a consequence, landslide risk assessment procedures and early warning systems in Campania still rely on simple empirical models based on correlation between daily rainfall records and observed landslides, like FLAIR model [Versace et al., 2003]. Effectiveness of such systems could be improved by reliable quantitative rainfall prediction. In mountainous areas, rainfall spatial and temporal variability are very pronounced due to orographic effects, making predictions even more complicated. Existing rain gauge networks are not dense enough to resolve the small scale spatial variability, and the same limitation of spatial resolution affects rainfall height maps provided by radar sensors as well as by meteorological physically based models. Therefore, analysis of on-site recorded rainfall height time series still represents the most effective approach for a reliable prediction of local temporal evolution of rainfall. Hydrological time series analysis is a widely studied field in hydrology, often carried out by means of autoregressive models, such as AR and ARMA [Box and Jenkins, 1976]. Sometimes exogenous information coming from additional series of observations is also taken into account, and the models are called ARX and ARMAX (e.g. Salas [1992]). Such models gave the best results when applied to the analysis of autocorrelated hydrological time series, like river flow or level time series. Conversely, they are not able to model the behaviour of intermittent time series, like point rainfall height series usually are, especially when recorded with short sampling time

  2. Volcano Monitoring and Early Warning on MT Etna, Italy, Using Volcanic Tremor - Methods and Technical Aspects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Agostino, Marcello; Di Grazia, Giuseppe; Ferrari, Ferruccio; Langer, Horst; Messina, Alfio; Reitano, Danilo; Spampinato, Salvatore

    2013-04-01

    Recent activity on Mt Etna was characterized by 25 lava fountains occurred on Mt Etna in 2011 and the first semester of 2012. In summer 2012 volcanic activity in a milder form was noticed within the Bocca Nuova crater, before it came to an essential halt in August 2012. Together with previous unrests (e. g., in 2007-08) these events offer rich material for testing automatic data processing and alert issue in the context of volcano monitoring. Our presentation focuses on the seismic background radiation - volcanic tremor - which has a key role in the surveillance of Mt Etna. From 2006 on a multi-station alert system exploiting STA/LTA ratios, has been established in the INGV operative centre of Catania. Besides, also the frequency content has been found to change correspondingly to the type of volcanic activity, and can thus be exploited for warning purposes. We apply Self Organizing Maps and Fuzzy Clustering which offer an efficient way to visualize signal characteristics and its development with time. These techniques allow to identify early stages of eruptive events and automatically flag a critical status before this becomes evident in conventional monitoring techniques. Changes of tremor characteristics are related to the position of the source of the signal. Given the dense seismic network we can base the location of the sources on distribution of the amplitudes across the network. The locations proved to be extremely useful for warning throughout both a flank eruption in 2008 as well as the 2011 lava fountains. During all these episodes a clear migration of tremor sources towards the eruptive centres was revealed in advance. The location of the sources completes the picture of an imminent volcanic unrest and corroborates early warnings flagged by the changes of signal characteristics. Automatic real time data processing poses high demands on computational efficiency, robustness of the methods and stability of data acquisition. The amplitude based multi

  3. Design Principles for resilient cyber-physical Early Warning Systems - Challenges, Experiences, Design Patterns, and Best Practices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gensch, S.; Wächter, J.; Schnor, B.

    2014-12-01

    Early warning systems (EWS) are safety-critical IT-infrastructures that serve the purpose of potentially saving lives or assets by observing real-world phenomena and issuing timely warning products to authorities and communities. An EWS consists of sensors, communication networks, data centers, simulation platforms, and dissemination channels. The components of this cyber-physical system may all be affected by both natural hazards and malfunctions of components alike. Resilience engineering so far has mostly been applied to safety-critical systems and processes in transportation (aviation, automobile), construction and medicine. Early warning systems need equivalent techniques to compensate for failures, and furthermore means to adapt to changing threats, emerging technology and research findings. We present threats and pitfalls from our experiences with the German and Indonesian tsunami early warning system, as well as architectural, technological and organizational concepts employed that can enhance an EWS' resilience. The current EWS is comprised of a multi-type sensor data upstream part, different processing and analysis engines, a decision support system, and various warning dissemination channels. Each subsystem requires a set of approaches towards ensuring stable functionality across system layer boundaries, including also institutional borders. Not only must services be available, but also produce correct results. Most sensors are distributed components with restricted resources, communication channels and power supply. An example for successful resilience engineering is the power capacity based functional management for buoy and tide gauge stations. We discuss various fault-models like cause and effect models on linear pathways, interaction of multiple events, complex and non-linear interaction of assumedly reliable subsystems and fault tolerance means implemented to tackle these threats.

  4. Rapid Estimation of Macroseismic Intensity for On-site Earthquake Early Warning in Italy from Early Radiated Energ

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Emolo, A.; Zollo, A.; Brondi, P.; Picozzi, M.; Mucciarelli, M.

    2015-12-01

    Earthquake Early Warning System (EEWS) are effective tools for the risk mitigation in active seismic regions. Recently, a feasibility study of a nation-wide earthquake early warning systems has been conducted for Italy considering the RAN Network and the EEW software platform PRESTo. This work showed that a reliable estimations in terms of magnitude and epicentral localization would be available within 3-4 seconds after the first P-wave arrival. On the other hand, given the RAN's density, a regional EEWS approach would result in a Blind Zone (BZ) of 25-30 km in average. Such BZ dimension would provide lead-times greater than zero only for events having magnitude larger than 6.5. Considering that in Italy also smaller events are capable of generating great losses both in human and economic terms, as dramatically experienced during the recent 2009 L'Aquila (ML 5.9) and 2012 Emilia (ML 5.9) earthquakes, it has become urgent to develop and test on-site approaches. The present study is focused on the development of a new on-site EEW metodology for the estimation of the macroseismic intensity at a target site or area. In this analysis we have used a few thousands of accelerometric traces recorded by RAN related to the largest earthquakes (ML>4) occurred in Italy in the period 1997-2013. The work is focused on the integral EW parameter Squared Velocity Integral (IV2) and on its capability to predict the peak ground velocity PGV and the Housner Intensity IH, as well as from these latters we parameterized a new relation between IV2 and the Macroseismic Intensity. To assess the performance of the developed on-site EEW relation, we used data of the largest events occurred in Italy in the last 6 years recorded by the Osservatorio Sismico delle Strutture, as well as on the recordings of the moderate earthquake reported by INGV Strong Motion Data. The results shows that the macroseismic intensity values predicted by IV2 and the one estimated by PGV and IH are in good agreement.

  5. Application of Advanced Wide Area Early Warning Systems with Adaptive Protection

    SciTech Connect

    Blumstein, Carl; Cibulka, Lloyd; Thorp, James; Centeno, Virgilio; King, Roger; Reeves, Kari; Ashrafi, Frank; Madani, Vahid

    2014-09-30

    Recent blackouts of power systems in North America and throughout the world have shown how critical a reliable power system is to modern societies, and the enormous economic and societal damage a blackout can cause. It has been noted that unanticipated operation of protection systems can contribute to cascading phenomena and, ultimately, blackouts. This project developed and field-tested two methods of Adaptive Protection systems utilizing synchrophasor data. One method detects conditions of system stress that can lead to unintended relay operation, and initiates a supervisory signal to modify relay response in real time to avoid false trips. The second method detects the possibility of false trips of impedance relays as stable system swings “encroach” on the relays’ impedance zones, and produces an early warning so that relay engineers can re-evaluate relay settings. In addition, real-time synchrophasor data produced by this project was used to develop advanced visualization techniques for display of synchrophasor data to utility operators and engineers.

  6. Early Warning System for West Nile Virus Risk Areas, California, USA

    PubMed Central

    Ahearn, Sean C.; McConchie, Alan; Glaser, Carol; Jean, Cynthia; Barker, Chris; Park, Bborie; Padgett, Kerry; Parker, Erin; Aquino, Ervic; Kramer, Vicki

    2011-01-01

    The Dynamic Continuous-Area Space-Time (DYCAST) system is a biologically based spatiotemporal model that uses public reports of dead birds to identify areas at high risk for West Nile virus (WNV) transmission to humans. In 2005, during a statewide epidemic of WNV (880 cases), the California Department of Public Health prospectively implemented DYCAST over 32,517 km2 in California. Daily risk maps were made available online and used by local agencies to target public education campaigns, surveillance, and mosquito control. DYCAST had 80.8% sensitivity and 90.6% specificity for predicting human cases, and κ analysis indicated moderate strength of chance-adjusted agreement for >4 weeks. High-risk grid cells (populations) were identified an average of 37.2 days before onset of human illness; relative risk for disease was >39× higher than for low-risk cells. Although prediction rates declined in subsequent years, results indicate DYCAST was a timely and effective early warning system during the severe 2005 epidemic. PMID:21801622

  7. The Earthquake Network Project: Toward a Crowdsourced Smartphone-Based Earthquake Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Finazzi, Francesco

    2016-06-01

    The Earthquake Network research project implements a crowdsourced earthquake early warning system based on smartphones. Smartphones, which are made available by the global population, exploit the Internet connection to report a signal to a central server every time a vibration is detected by the on-board accelerometer sensor. This paper introduces a statistical approach for the detection of earthquakes from the data coming from the network of smartphones. The approach allows to handle a dynamic network in which the number of active nodes constantly changes and where nodes are heterogeneous in terms of sensor sensibility and transmission delay. Additionally, the approach allows to keep the probability of false alarm under control. The statistical approach is applied to the data collected by three subnetworks related to the cities of Santiago de Chile, Iquique (Chile) and Kathmandu (Nepal). The detection capabilities of the app