Science.gov

Sample records for pollution-induced forest decline

  1. Rational forest productivity decline.

    PubMed

    MacLellan, James I; Carleton, T J

    2003-01-01

    A whole forest optimisation model was employed to examine economic behaviour as it relates to long term, forest productivity decline in the boreal forests of Ontario, Canada. Our productivity investment model (PIM) incorporated a choice between productivity decline as represented by a drop in forest Site Class, and a fee to 'maintain' site productivity. Sensitivity analysis was used to determine the point at which these fees exceeded the value of the differential in timber volume between upper and lower site classes. By varying discount rate, 'productivity investment frontiers' were constructed, which highlight the effects of the magnitude in productivity decline, maintenance fees, and harvest flow constraints upon the occurrence and schedule of productivity declines. In presenting this simple approach to exploring the effects of economic choice upon forest productivity decline, the phenomena of 'natural capital divestment' within forestry is described. PMID:12859006

  2. [Forest degradation/decline: research and practice].

    PubMed

    Zhu, Jiao-Jun; Li, Feng-Qin

    2007-07-01

    As one of the most critical environmental problems in the 21st century, forest degradation has been facing worldwide. There are many definitions about forest degradation, but its common features are the permanent loss of forests, stand structure destructed, forest quality decreased, and forest functions lowered. Forest decline or tree decline in fact is one of the causes of forest degradation, which includes the general reduction of trees in vigor, low level growth of trees in productivity, death of trees, and even, decline of soil fertility. Many researches indicated that deforestation is the permanent loss of forests in area, which is shifted to other land uses. Deforestation is the product of the interactions between environmental, social, economic, cultural, and political forces at work in any given country/region, and thus, more and more attention is focused on the negative socioeconomic and environmental effects after forest degradation, especially on the reduction of forest area induced by deforestation. The effects of any decisions or policies in national and international levels on forest degradation induced by deforestation have been paid attention as well. How to make efforts and strengthen the worldwide cooperation to combat the forest degradation induced by deforestation must be challenged to find appropriate solutions. There are many researches on forest decline, because of its complexity and uncertainties. The major causes of forest decline include: 1) pollution from both industry and agriculture, 2) stress factors, e.g., desiccation, 3) changes in stand dynamics, 4) decline disease of forest or diseases of complex etiology, 5) degradation of productivity and/or soil fertility in pure plantation forests. Forest degradation in China is similar to that all over the world, but with the characteristics in forest components, i.e., 1) secondary forests are the major forest resources, 2) China has the most plantation forests in the world, some of which have

  3. ACID DEPOSITION AND FOREST DECLINE

    EPA Science Inventory

    The location, topography and other characteristics of the high-elevation forests of eastern North America cause them to be receptors of high levels of acid deposition and airborn trace metals. No other major forested areas in the U.S. are subjected to such intensely acid cloud mo...

  4. Comparison of in situ and airborne spectral measurements of the blue shift associated with forest decline

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rock, B. N.; Hoshizaki, T.; Miller, J. R.

    1988-01-01

    Visible IR Intelligent Spectrometer (VIRIS) reflectance data have been found to have similar features that are related to air-pollution-induced forest decline and visible damage in both the red spruce of Vermont and the Norway spruce of Baden-Wuerttemberg; the similarity suggests a common source of damage. Spectra of both species include a 5-nm blueshifting of the red-edge inflection point, while pigment data for both species indicate a loss of total chlorophylls. The blue shift of the chlorophyll absorption maximum, as well as the increased red radiance and decreased near-IR radiance of the damaged spruce, may be used to delineate and map damage areas.

  5. An Investigation of the Afternoon Decline in Tropical Forest Photosynthesis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doughty, C.; Goulden, M. L.; Miller, S. D.; Menton, M. C.; da Rocha, H.; Freitas, H.; Figueira, M. A.; da Sousa, C. A.; Maia, A.

    2002-12-01

    The recent use of eddy covariance to measure the net exchange of CO2 between the atmosphere and a tropical forest in Santarem Para, Brazil, has indicated a substantial decline in forest photosynthesis in the afternoon, even after taking light differences into account. Afternoon declines in leaf-level gas exchange have been reported for many ecosystems, including tropical forests. Potential causes for this decline include stomatal responses to VPD, low leaf water potential, changes in biochemistry due to elevated temperature, photoinhibition, photorespiration, or intrinsic circadian rhythm. This study attempts to understand this decline by using leaf gas exchange to measure photosynthesis while canopy leaves are kept under constant light, humidity, and temperature conditions for 24 to 36 hours hours.At constant light levels of 100 PAR æmol~m-2s-1, 7 of 12 species tested showed a substantial decline photosynthesis at night, and a subsequent recovery in photosynthesis during the next day. In most cases, the internal CO2 of these plants increased at night, indicating that this diel cycle was not simply an effect of a circadian rhythm in stomatal conductance. Rather, the photosynthesis of a significant fraction of the plants surveyed appears to be under the direct control of a circadian oscillator.

  6. Devastating Decline of Forest Elephants in Central Africa

    PubMed Central

    Blake, Stephen; Wittemyer, George; Hart, John; Williamson, Elizabeth A.; Aba’a, Rostand; Abitsi, Gaspard; Ambahe, Ruffin D.; Amsini, Fidèl; Bakabana, Parfait C.; Hicks, Thurston Cleveland; Bayogo, Rosine E.; Bechem, Martha; Beyers, Rene L.; Bezangoye, Anicet N.; Boundja, Patrick; Bout, Nicolas; Akou, Marc Ella; Bene, Lambert Bene; Fosso, Bernard; Greengrass, Elizabeth; Grossmann, Falk; Ikamba-Nkulu, Clement; Ilambu, Omari; Inogwabini, Bila-Isia; Iyenguet, Fortune; Kiminou, Franck; Kokangoye, Max; Kujirakwinja, Deo; Latour, Stephanie; Liengola, Innocent; Mackaya, Quevain; Madidi, Jacob; Madzoke, Bola; Makoumbou, Calixte; Malanda, Guy-Aimé; Malonga, Richard; Mbani, Olivier; Mbendzo, Valentin A.; Ambassa, Edgar; Ekinde, Albert; Mihindou, Yves; Morgan, Bethan J.; Motsaba, Prosper; Moukala, Gabin; Mounguengui, Anselme; Mowawa, Brice S.; Ndzai, Christian; Nixon, Stuart; Nkumu, Pele; Nzolani, Fabian; Pintea, Lilian; Plumptre, Andrew; Rainey, Hugo; de Semboli, Bruno Bokoto; Serckx, Adeline; Stokes, Emma; Turkalo, Andrea; Vanleeuwe, Hilde; Vosper, Ashley; Warren, Ymke

    2013-01-01

    African forest elephants– taxonomically and functionally unique–are being poached at accelerating rates, but we lack range-wide information on the repercussions. Analysis of the largest survey dataset ever assembled for forest elephants (80 foot-surveys; covering 13,000 km; 91,600 person-days of fieldwork) revealed that population size declined by ca. 62% between 2002–2011, and the taxon lost 30% of its geographical range. The population is now less than 10% of its potential size, occupying less than 25% of its potential range. High human population density, hunting intensity, absence of law enforcement, poor governance, and proximity to expanding infrastructure are the strongest predictors of decline. To save the remaining African forest elephants, illegal poaching for ivory and encroachment into core elephant habitat must be stopped. In addition, the international demand for ivory, which fuels illegal trade, must be dramatically reduced. PMID:23469289

  7. Devastating decline of forest elephants in central Africa.

    PubMed

    Maisels, Fiona; Strindberg, Samantha; Blake, Stephen; Wittemyer, George; Hart, John; Williamson, Elizabeth A; Aba'a, Rostand; Abitsi, Gaspard; Ambahe, Ruffin D; Amsini, Fidèl; Bakabana, Parfait C; Hicks, Thurston Cleveland; Bayogo, Rosine E; Bechem, Martha; Beyers, Rene L; Bezangoye, Anicet N; Boundja, Patrick; Bout, Nicolas; Akou, Marc Ella; Bene, Lambert Bene; Fosso, Bernard; Greengrass, Elizabeth; Grossmann, Falk; Ikamba-Nkulu, Clement; Ilambu, Omari; Inogwabini, Bila-Isia; Iyenguet, Fortune; Kiminou, Franck; Kokangoye, Max; Kujirakwinja, Deo; Latour, Stephanie; Liengola, Innocent; Mackaya, Quevain; Madidi, Jacob; Madzoke, Bola; Makoumbou, Calixte; Malanda, Guy-Aimé; Malonga, Richard; Mbani, Olivier; Mbendzo, Valentin A; Ambassa, Edgar; Ekinde, Albert; Mihindou, Yves; Morgan, Bethan J; Motsaba, Prosper; Moukala, Gabin; Mounguengui, Anselme; Mowawa, Brice S; Ndzai, Christian; Nixon, Stuart; Nkumu, Pele; Nzolani, Fabian; Pintea, Lilian; Plumptre, Andrew; Rainey, Hugo; de Semboli, Bruno Bokoto; Serckx, Adeline; Stokes, Emma; Turkalo, Andrea; Vanleeuwe, Hilde; Vosper, Ashley; Warren, Ymke

    2013-01-01

    African forest elephants- taxonomically and functionally unique-are being poached at accelerating rates, but we lack range-wide information on the repercussions. Analysis of the largest survey dataset ever assembled for forest elephants (80 foot-surveys; covering 13,000 km; 91,600 person-days of fieldwork) revealed that population size declined by ca. 62% between 2002-2011, and the taxon lost 30% of its geographical range. The population is now less than 10% of its potential size, occupying less than 25% of its potential range. High human population density, hunting intensity, absence of law enforcement, poor governance, and proximity to expanding infrastructure are the strongest predictors of decline. To save the remaining African forest elephants, illegal poaching for ivory and encroachment into core elephant habitat must be stopped. In addition, the international demand for ivory, which fuels illegal trade, must be dramatically reduced. PMID:23469289

  8. Air pollution and forest decline near Mexico City.

    PubMed

    Tovar, D C

    1989-04-01

    The forests of Abies religiosa Schl. et Cham. in the north and the northeast slopes of the mountains of the southwestern region of the Valley of Mexico are in an acute process of decline, particularly the fir forest of the Cultural and Recreational Park Desierto de los Leones. The mortality of the trees began in 1981, and by 1987 30% of the trees of the Park had died; the mortality continues. The surviving trees are in a very poor crown condition, having thin crowns with many dead branches. in the light of current knowledge air pollution, in particular the oxidant gases (ozone), are the primary cause of decline, but other conditions or agents (age of the trees and diseases) could be contributing factors in the dying of the trees. PMID:24249058

  9. Assessing forest decline in coniferous forests of Vermont using NS-001 Thematic Mapper Simulator data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vogelmann, J. E.; Rock, B. N.

    1986-01-01

    This study evaluates the potential of measuring/mapping forest decline in spruce-fir forests using airborne NS-001 TMS data. Using field instruments, it was found that ratios of 1.65/1.23 and 1.65/0.83-micron reflectance discriminated between spruce samples of low and high-damage sites. Using TMS data, band ratios were found to be strongly correlated with ground-based measurements of forest damage. Ratio colo-density slice images using these band ratios, and images using 0.56 and 1.65-micron bands with either of these band ratios in a false-color composite, provide accurate means of detecting, quantifying and mapping levels of forest decline.

  10. Decline of the mid- to late Holocene forests in China: climatic change or human impact?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ren, Guoyu

    2000-03-01

    Fossil pollen data from China indicate continued forest decline during the mid- to late Holocene in most regions north of the Yangtze River. The earliest forest decline can be detected ca. 5000 yr BP in the middle and lower Yellow River regions. North, northeast and northwest from this region, forest decline became progressively later, and almost no decline took place in the northernmost part of northeast China and in the remote areas of west China during the last 5000 yr. Climate changes could hardly account for the temporal and spatial patterns of the forest decline. Instead, anthropogenic disturbance may have been of overwhelming importance. Ancient agriculture and high-density settlement expanded outward from the middle and lower Yellow River regions in similar patterns to those of forest change. This study also indicates that land-use and land-cover changes may have started in the early stage of Chinese civilization in an extensive area of the country.

  11. Air pollution and forest decline in a spruce (Picea abies) forest

    SciTech Connect

    Schulze, E.D. )

    1989-05-19

    Symptoms of forest decline of spruce in Europe range from needle yellowing and loss to tree and stand mortality. In a study area in northeast Bavaria, West Germany, where forest decline was initially detected, exposure to high concentrations of gaseous pollutants, SO{sub 2}, NO{sub x}, and ozone has had no long-lasting direct effect on needles, and pathogens have only been secondary agents. Deposition of sulfur, nitrate, and ammonium, however, have significantly modified plant nutrition and soil chemistry. Spruce roots apparently take up ammonium rather than nitrate with an antagonistic effect on uptake of Mg. Nitrate left in the soil solution is leached together with sulfate to ground water, accelerating soil acidification and decreasing Ca/Al and Mg/Al ratios in the soil solution. Soil solution chemistry affects root development, and water and nutrient uptake. Had all nutrients become equally deficient, spruce trees probably could have adjusted by retarding their growth. However, canopy uptake of atmospheric nitrogen in addition to root uptake stimulated growth and caused a nitrogen to cation imbalance to develop; this imbalance resulted in the decline symptoms. 35 refs., 8 figs., 3 tabs.

  12. On the decline of ground lichen forests in the Swedish boreal landscape: Implications for reindeer husbandry and sustainable forest management.

    PubMed

    Sandström, Per; Cory, Neil; Svensson, Johan; Hedenås, Henrik; Jougda, Leif; Borchert, Nanna

    2016-05-01

    Lichens are a bottleneck resource for circumpolar populations of reindeer, and as such, for reindeer husbandry as an indigenous Sami land-use tradition in northern Sweden. This study uses ground lichen data and forest information collected within the Swedish National Forest Inventory since 1953, on the scale of northern Sweden. We found a 71 % decline in the area of lichen-abundant forests over the last 60 years. A decline was observed in all regions and age classes and especially coincided with a decrease of >60 year old, open pine forests, which was the primary explanatory factor in our model. The effects of reindeer numbers were inconclusive in explaining the decrease in lichen-abundant forest. The role that forestry has played in causing this decline can be debated, but forestry can have a significant role in reversing the trend and improving ground lichen conditions. PMID:26754169

  13. Advances of air pollution science: from forest decline to multiple-stress effects on forest ecosystem services.

    PubMed

    Paoletti, E; Schaub, M; Matyssek, R; Wieser, G; Augustaitis, A; Bastrup-Birk, A M; Bytnerowicz, A; Günthardt-Goerg, M S; Müller-Starck, G; Serengil, Y

    2010-06-01

    Over the past 20 years, the focus of forest science on air pollution has moved from forest decline to a holistic framework of forest health, and from the effects on forest production to the ecosystem services provided by forest ecosystems. Hence, future research should focus on the interacting factorial impacts and resulting antagonistic and synergistic responses of forest trees and ecosystems. The synergistic effects of air pollution and climatic changes, in particular elevated ozone, altered nitrogen, carbon and water availability, must be key issues for research. Present evidence suggests air pollution will become increasingly harmful to forests under climate change, which requires integration amongst various stressors (abiotic and biotic factors, including competition, parasites and fire), effects on forest services (production, biodiversity protection, soil protection, sustained water balance, socio-economical relevance) and assessment approaches (research, monitoring, modeling) to be fostered. PMID:20036449

  14. Drought-Caused Forest Decline In The Trans-Baikal Lake Area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ranson, J.; Kharuk, V.; Oscorbin, P.; Im, S.

    2011-12-01

    One of the important consequences of observed and predicted climate change is regional desertification and conversion of forest lands into steppes. We documented progressive forest decline in the trans-Baikal Lake mountains (center point coordinates ~ 51°30'N/116°30'E). This area has a sever continental climate and is a transition area between the Siberian taiga and Mongolian steppes and deserts. Forests are dominated by birch and occupy north-facing mountains slopes (with elevations up to 1200 m). Southern facing slopes are typically covered by grass communities. Analysis of field measurements and satellite temporal data showed an increasing forest decline during the last decades (i.e, 1990-2010). The typical pattern of forest decline was ring-like with the forest die-back starting in the boundary area around the outside of the stand within the forest-grass transition zone. This decline was likely, caused by decreases in precipitation and soil water content. During the last two decades summer precipitation decrease was > 10% (P>0.05), and is now 270 ±30 mm/yr. Similarly, hydrothermal index value decreased to about 12% (P>0.05). Satellite-derived forest decline correlates with precipitation and hydrothermal index decreases. Soil studies showed highest water content values within soils of healthy stands, with minimum values within the dead stand areas, and intermediate within the transition zone. Satellite - based estimates of the total area with drought-caused forest decline was about 106 ha. Along with the observed decline of birch stands, two others climate-caused phenomena were noted within the study and adjacent areas during the last decades: a significant increase of fire frequency and decrease of lake surface area.

  15. Decline of sacred fir (Abies religiosa) in a forest park south of Mexico City.

    PubMed

    Alvarado R, D; De Bauer, L I; Galindo A, J

    1993-01-01

    Decline of sacred fir (Abies religiosa) trees in the high elevation forest park, Desierto de los Leones, located south of Mexico City, is described. Trees located in the windward zone (exposed to air masses from Mexico City) were the most severely affected, especially trees at the distal ends of ravines. Examination of tree growth rings indicated decreases in ring widths for the past 30 years. Polluted air from Mexico City may be an important causal factor in fir decline. Drought, due to excessive removal of soil water, insects, mites and pathogens, and poor forest management are possible contributing and interactive factors in fir decline. PMID:15091853

  16. Forest stand structure, productivity, and age mediate climatic effects on aspen decline.

    PubMed

    Bell, David M; Bradford, John B; Lauenroth, William K

    2014-08-01

    Because forest stand structure, age, and productivity can mediate the impacts of climate on quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) mortality, ignoring stand-scale factors limits inference on the drivers of recent sudden aspen decline. Using the proportion of aspen trees that were dead as an index of recent mortality at 841 forest inventory plots, we examined the relationship of this mortality index to forest structure and climate in the Rocky Mountains and Intermountain Western United States. We found that forest structure explained most of the patterns in mortality indices, but that variation in growing-season vapor pressure deficit and winter precipitation over the last 20 years was important. Mortality index sensitivity to precipitation was highest in forests where aspen exhibited high densities, relative basal areas, quadratic mean diameters, and productivities, whereas sensitivity to vapor pressure deficit was highest in young forest stands. These results indicate that the effects of drought on mortality may be mediated by forest stand development, competition with encroaching conifers, and physiological vulnerabilities of large trees to drought. By examining mortality index responses to both forest structure and climate, we show that forest succession cannot be ignored in studies attempting to understand the causes and consequences of sudden aspen decline. PMID:25230455

  17. Forest stand structure, productivity, and age mediate climatic effects on aspen decline

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bell, David M.; Bradford, John B.; Lauenroth, William K.

    2014-01-01

    Because forest stand structure, age, and productivity can mediate the impacts of climate on quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) mortality, ignoring stand-scale factors limits inference on the drivers of recent sudden aspen decline. Using the proportion of aspen trees that were dead as an index of recent mortality at 841 forest inventory plots, we examined the relationship of this mortality index to forest structure and climate in the Rocky Mountains and Intermountain Western United States. We found that forest structure explained most of the patterns in mortality indices, but that variation in growing-season vapor pressure deficit and winter precipitation over the last 20 years was important. Mortality index sensitivity to precipitation was highest in forests where aspen exhibited high densities, relative basal areas, quadratic mean diameters, and productivities, whereas sensitivity to vapor pressure deficit was highest in young forest stands. These results indicate that the effects of drought on mortality may be mediated by forest stand development, competition with encroaching conifers, and physiological vulnerabilities of large trees to drought. By examining mortality index responses to both forest structure and climate, we show that forest succession cannot be ignored in studies attempting to understand the causes and consequences of sudden aspen decline.

  18. Growth Decline Linked to Warming-Induced Water Limitation in Hemi-Boreal Forests

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Xiuchen; Liu, Hongyan; Guo, Dali; Anenkhonov, Oleg A.; Badmaeva, Natalya K.; Sandanov, Denis V.

    2012-01-01

    Hemi-boreal forests, which make up the transition from temperate deciduous forests to boreal forests in southern Siberia, have experienced significant warming without any accompanying increase in precipitation during the last 80 years. This climatic change could have a profound impact on tree growth and on the stability of forest ecosystems in this region, but at present evidence for these impacts is lacking. In this study, we report a recent dramatic decline in the growth of hemi-boreal forests, based on ring width measurements from three dominant tree-species (Pinus sylvestris, Larix sibirica and Larix gmelinii), sampled from eight sites in the region. We found that regional tree growth has become increasingly limited by low soil water content in the pre- and early-growing season (from October of the previous year to July of the current year) over the past 80 years. A warming-induced reduction in soil water content has also increased the climate sensitivity of these three tree species. Beginning in the mid-1980s, a clear decline in growth is evident for both the pine forests and the larch forests, although there are increasing trends in the proxy of soil water use efficiencies. Our findings are consistent with those from other parts of the world and provide valuable insights into the regional carbon cycle and vegetation dynamics, and should be useful for devising adaptive forest management strategies. PMID:22916142

  19. Growth decline linked to warming-induced water limitation in hemi-boreal forests.

    PubMed

    Wu, Xiuchen; Liu, Hongyan; Guo, Dali; Anenkhonov, Oleg A; Badmaeva, Natalya K; Sandanov, Denis V

    2012-01-01

    Hemi-boreal forests, which make up the transition from temperate deciduous forests to boreal forests in southern Siberia, have experienced significant warming without any accompanying increase in precipitation during the last 80 years. This climatic change could have a profound impact on tree growth and on the stability of forest ecosystems in this region, but at present evidence for these impacts is lacking. In this study, we report a recent dramatic decline in the growth of hemi-boreal forests, based on ring width measurements from three dominant tree-species (Pinus sylvestris, Larix sibirica and Larix gmelinii), sampled from eight sites in the region. We found that regional tree growth has become increasingly limited by low soil water content in the pre- and early-growing season (from October of the previous year to July of the current year) over the past 80 years. A warming-induced reduction in soil water content has also increased the climate sensitivity of these three tree species. Beginning in the mid-1980s, a clear decline in growth is evident for both the pine forests and the larch forests, although there are increasing trends in the proxy of soil water use efficiencies. Our findings are consistent with those from other parts of the world and provide valuable insights into the regional carbon cycle and vegetation dynamics, and should be useful for devising adaptive forest management strategies. PMID:22916142

  20. Rapid warming accelerates tree growth decline in semi-arid forests of Inner Asia.

    PubMed

    Liu, Hongyan; Park Williams, A; Allen, Craig D; Guo, Dali; Wu, Xiuchen; Anenkhonov, Oleg A; Liang, Eryuan; Sandanov, Denis V; Yin, Yi; Qi, Zhaohuan; Badmaeva, Natalya K

    2013-08-01

    Forests around the world are subject to risk of high rates of tree growth decline and increased tree mortality from combinations of climate warming and drought, notably in semi-arid settings. Here, we assess how climate warming has affected tree growth in one of the world's most extensive zones of semi-arid forests, in Inner Asia, a region where lack of data limits our understanding of how climate change may impact forests. We show that pervasive tree growth declines since 1994 in Inner Asia have been confined to semi-arid forests, where growing season water stress has been rising due to warming-induced increases in atmospheric moisture demand. A causal link between increasing drought and declining growth at semi-arid sites is corroborated by correlation analyses comparing annual climate data to records of tree-ring widths. These ring-width records tend to be substantially more sensitive to drought variability at semi-arid sites than at semi-humid sites. Fire occurrence and insect/pathogen attacks have increased in tandem with the most recent (2007-2009) documented episode of tree mortality. If warming in Inner Asia continues, further increases in forest stress and tree mortality could be expected, potentially driving the eventual regional loss of current semi-arid forests. PMID:23564688

  1. DETECTING FOREST STRESS AND DECLINE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING RIVER FLOW IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, USA

    EPA Science Inventory

    Forest stress and decline resulting from increased river flows were investigated in Myakka River State Park (MRSP), Florida, USA. Since 1977, land-use changes around the upper Myakka River watershed have resulted in significant increases in water entering the river, which have...

  2. A Neighborhood Analysis of the Consequences of Quercus suber Decline for Regeneration Dynamics in Mediterranean Forests

    PubMed Central

    Ibáñez, Beatriz; Gómez-Aparicio, Lorena; Stoll, Peter; Ávila, José M.; Pérez-Ramos, Ignacio M.; Marañón, Teodoro

    2015-01-01

    In forests, the vulnerable seedling stage is largely influenced by the canopy, which modifies the surrounding environment. Consequently, any alteration in the characteristics of the canopy, such as those promoted by forest dieback, might impact regeneration dynamics. Our work analyzes the interaction between canopy neighbors and seedlings in Mediterranean forests affected by the decline of their dominant species (Quercus suber). Our objective was to understand how the impacts of neighbor trees and shrubs on recruitment could affect future dynamics of these declining forests. Seeds of the three dominant tree species (Quercus suber, Olea europaea and Quercus canariensis) were sown in six sites during two consecutive years. Using a spatially-explicit, neighborhood approach we developed models that explained the observed spatial variation in seedling emergence, survival, growth and photochemical efficiency as a function of the size, identity, health, abundance and distribution of adult trees and shrubs in the neighborhood. We found strong neighborhood effects for all the performance estimators, particularly seedling emergence and survival. Tree neighbors positively affected emergence, independently of species identity or health. Alternatively, seedling survival was much lower in neighborhoods dominated by defoliated and dead Q. suber trees than in neighborhoods dominated by healthy trees. For the two oak species, these negative effects were consistent over the three years of the experimental seedlings. These results indicate that ongoing changes in species’ relative abundance and canopy trees’ health might alter the successional trajectories of Mediterranean oak-forests through neighbor-specific impacts on seedlings. The recruitment failure of dominant late-successional oaks in the gaps opened after Q. suber death would indirectly favor the establishment of other coexisting woody species, such as drought-tolerant shrubs. This could lead current forests to shift

  3. FOREST RESPONSE PROGRAM: NATIONAL RESEARCH ON FOREST DECLINE AND AIR POLLUTION

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Forest Response Program (FRP) is a major research undertaking. t is fortunate to have the support of many of the nation's top scientists. he involvement of the Forest Service, the Environmental Protection Agency, and the broader scientific community gives the program a unique...

  4. Declining water yield from forested mountain watersheds in response to climate change and forest mesophication.

    PubMed

    Caldwell, Peter V; Miniat, Chelcy F; Elliott, Katherine J; Swank, Wayne T; Brantley, Steven T; Laseter, Stephanie H

    2016-09-01

    Climate change and forest disturbances are threatening the ability of forested mountain watersheds to provide the clean, reliable, and abundant fresh water necessary to support aquatic ecosystems and a growing human population. Here, we used 76 years of water yield, climate, and field plot vegetation measurements in six unmanaged, reference watersheds in the southern Appalachian Mountains of North Carolina, USA to determine whether water yield has changed over time, and to examine and attribute the causal mechanisms of change. We found that annual water yield increased in some watersheds from 1938 to the mid-1970s by as much as 55%, but this was followed by decreases up to 22% by 2013. Changes in forest evapotranspiration were consistent with, but opposite in direction to the changes in water yield, with decreases in evapotranspiration up to 31% by the mid-1970s followed by increases up to 29% until 2013. Vegetation survey data showed commensurate reductions in forest basal area until the mid-1970s and increases since that time accompanied by a shift in dominance from xerophytic oak and hickory species to several mesophytic species (i.e., mesophication) that use relatively more water. These changes in forest structure and species composition may have decreased water yield by as much as 18% in a given year since the mid-1970s after accounting for climate. Our results suggest that changes in climate and forest structure and species composition in unmanaged forests brought about by disturbance and natural community dynamics over time can result in large changes in water supply. PMID:27038309

  5. Declining plant nitrogen supply and carbon accumulation in ageing primary boreal forest ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Högberg, Mona N.; Yarwood, Stephanie A.; Trumbore, Susan; Högberg, Peter

    2016-04-01

    Boreal forest soils are commonly characterized by a low plant nitrogen (N) supply. A high tree below-ground allocation of carbon (C) to roots and soil microorganisms in response to the shortage of N may lead to high microbial immobilisation of N, thus aggravating the N limitation. We studied the N supply at a Swedish boreal forest ecosystem chronosequence created by new land rising out of the sea due to iso-static rebound. The youngest soils develop with meadows by the coast, followed by a zone of dinitrogen fixing alder trees, and primary boreal conifer forest on ground up to 560 years old. With increasing ecosystem age, the proportion of microbial C out of the total soil C pool from the youngest to the oldest coniferous ecosystem was constant (c. 1-1.5%), whereas immobilised N (microbial N out of total soil N) increased and approached the levels commonly observed in similar boreal coniferous forests (c. 6-7 %), whereas gross N mineralization declined. Simultaneously, plant foliar N % decreased and the natural abundance of N-15 in the soil increased. More specifically, the difference in N-15 between plant foliage and soil increased, which is related to greater retention of N-15 relative to N-14 by ectomycorrhizal fungi as N is taken up from the soil and some N is transferred to the plant host. In the conifer forest, where these changes were greatest, we found increased fungal biomass in the F- and H-horizons of the mor-layer, in which ectomycorrhizal fungi are known to dominate (the uppermost horizon with litter and moss is dominated by saprotrophic fungi). Hence, we propose that the decreasing N supply to the plants and the subsequent decline in plant production in ageing boreal forests is linked to high tree belowground C allocation to C limited ectomycorrhizal fungi (and other soil microorganisms), a strong sink for available soil N. Data on organic matter C-14 suggested that the largest input of recently fixed plant C occurred in the younger coniferous forest

  6. Are orchid bees at risk? First comparative survey suggests declining populations of forest-dependent species.

    PubMed

    Nemésio, A

    2013-05-01

    The two largest Atlantic Forest remnants in the state of Espírito Santo, eastern Brazil, namely 'Reserva Biológica de Sooretama' (REBIO Sooretama) and 'Reserva Natural Vale' (RNV), were surveyed for their orchid-bee faunas. Seventeen scent baits were used to attract orchid-bee males. Three-thousand, two hundred and twenty-five males belonging to 24 species were actively collected with insect nets during 100 hours in March, April and December, 2009. In comparison with a previous study in the same area twelve years before, it is evident that the abundance of all forest-dependent orchid bees analysed declined around 50%, and it was statistically significant (P = 0.022) for Euglossa marianae Nemésio, 2011, the most sensitive to anthropogenic disturbances of all Atlantic Forest orchid bees. On the other hand, the abundance of populations of species tolerant to open or disturbed areas rose. Possible explanations are discussed. PMID:23917564

  7. Declining summer flows of Rocky Mountain rivers: Changing seasonal hydrology and probable impacts on floodplain forests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rood, Stewart B.; Pan, Jason; Gill, Karen M.; Franks, Carmen G.; Samuelson, Glenda M.; Shepherd, Anita

    2008-02-01

    SummaryIn analyzing hydrologic consequences of climate change, we previously found declining annual discharges of rivers that drain the hydrographic apex of North America, the Rocky Mountain headwaters region for adjacent streams flowing to the Arctic, Atlantic and Pacific oceans. In this study we investigated historic changes in seasonal patterns of streamflows, by comparing mean monthly flows and analyzing cumulative hydrographs over the periods of record of about a century. We tested predictions of change due to winter and spring warming that would increase the proportion of rain versus snow, and alter snow accumulation and melt. We analyzed records from 14 free-flowing, snow-melt dominated rivers that drained relatively pristine parks and protected areas, thus avoiding the effects of river damming, flow regulation, or watershed development. The collective results indicated that: (1) winter flows (especially March) were often slightly increased, (2) spring run-off and (3) peak flows occurred earlier, and most substantially, (4) summer and early autumn flows (July-October) were considerably reduced. The greatest changes were observed for the rivers draining the east-slope of the Rocky Mountains toward the northern prairies and Hudson Bay, with late summer flow decline rates of about 0.2%/year. This would have considerable ecological impact since this is the warm and dry period when evaporative demand is maximal and reduced instream flows would reduce riparian groundwater recharge, imposing drought stress on floodplain forests. In combination with the decline in annual discharge, earlier peaks and reduced summer flows would provide chronic stress on riparian cottonwoods and willows and especially restrict seedling recruitment. We predict a loss of floodplain forests along some river reaches, the narrowing of forest bands along other reaches, and increased vulnerability of these ecosystems to other impacts including livestock grazing, encroachment of upland

  8. Soil Respiration Declines Following Beetle - Induced Forest Mortality in a Lodgepole Pine Forest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borkhuu, B.; Peckham, S. D.; Norton, U.; Ewers, B. E.; Pendall, E.

    2014-12-01

    Lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) forests in northern Colorado and southeast Wyoming have been undergoing a major mortality event owing to mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) infestation since 2007. We studied biotic and abiotic drivers of growing season soil respiration in four mature stands experiencing different levels of mortality between 2008 and 2012 in the Medicine Bow Mountains, southeastern Wyoming, USA. For five years, beetle infestation significantly altered forest structure. Stand mortality was 30% and more than 80% in stands with the lowest and highest mortality, respectively. Understory vegetation cover increased by 50% for five years following beetle infestation. Needlefall was increased by more than 50% during first two years of beetle infestation compared to the pre-disturbance period. We did not observe an immediate increase in soil respiration following beetle infestation as suggested by some researchers. Soil respiration rates in midsummer ranged from 1.4 ± 0.1 μmol m-2 s-1 in stands with highest mortality to 3.1 ± 0.2 μmol m-2s-1 in uninfested stand. Live tree basal area was the dominant factor controlling soil respiration, explaining more than 60% of the interannual and spatial variations in response to the disturbance. In addition, soil respiration was significantly correlated with fine root biomass, which explained 55% of variations, providing strong evidence that autotrophic respiration dominated the forest soil respiration flux. Furthermore, the seasonality of soil respiration was controlled mainly by mean monthly precipitation and mid-day photosynthetically active radiation. Each factor predicted from 30% to 50% of seasonal soil respiration variability with the highest correlation coefficients in stand with the lowest mortality. Our results clearly indicate that the reduction of photosynthesis in trees over the infestation period significantly reduced soil respiration. The remaining activity in dead stands may

  9. Unusual forest growth decline in boreal North America covaries with the retreat of Arctic sea ice.

    PubMed

    Girardin, Martin P; Guo, Xiao Jing; De Jong, Rogier; Kinnard, Christophe; Bernier, Pierre; Raulier, Frédéric

    2014-03-01

    The 20th century was a pivotal period at high northern latitudes as it marked the onset of rapid climatic warming brought on by major anthropogenic changes in global atmospheric composition. In parallel, Arctic sea ice extent has been decreasing over the period of available satellite data records. Here, we document how these changes influenced vegetation productivity in adjacent eastern boreal North America. To do this, we used normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, model simulations of net primary productivity (NPP) and tree-ring width measurements covering the last 300 years. Climatic and proxy-climatic data sets were used to explore the relationships between vegetation productivity and Arctic sea ice concentration and extent, and temperatures. Results indicate that an unusually large number of black spruce (Picea mariana) trees entered into a period of growth decline during the late-20th century (62% of sampled trees; n = 724 cross sections of age >70 years). This finding is coherent with evidence encoded in NDVI and simulated NPP data. Analyses of climatic and vegetation productivity relationships indicate that the influence of recent climatic changes in the studied forests has been via the enhanced moisture stress (i.e. greater water demands) and autotrophic respiration amplified by the declining sea ice concentration in Hudson Bay and Hudson Strait. The recent decline strongly contrasts with other growth reduction events that occurred during the 19th century, which were associated with cooling and high sea ice severity. The recent decline of vegetation productivity is the first one to occur under circumstances related to excess heat in a 300-year period, and further culminates with an intensifying wildfire regime in the region. Our results concur with observations from other forest ecosystems about intensifying temperature-driven drought stress and tree mortality with ongoing climatic changes. PMID:24115302

  10. Long-term declines in stream and river inorganic nitrogen (N) export correspond to forest change.

    PubMed

    Lucas, Richard W; Sponseller, Ryan A; Gundale, Michael J; Stendahl, Johan; Fridman, Jonas; Högberg, Peter; Laudon, Hjalmar

    2016-03-01

    Human activities have exerted a powerful influence on the biogeochemical cycles of nitrogen (N) and carbon (C) and drive changes that can be a challenge to predict given the influence of multiple environmental stressors. This study focused on understanding how land management and climate change have together influenced terrestrial N storage and watershed inorganic N export across boreal and sub-arctic landscapes in northern Sweden. Using long-term discharge and nutrient concentration data that have been collected continuously for over three decades, we calculated the hydrologic inorganic N export from nine watersheds in this region. We found a consistent decline in inorganic N export from 1985 to 2011 over the entire region from both small and large watersheds, despite the absence of any long-term trend in river discharge during this period. The steepest declines in inorganic N export were observed during the growing season, consistent with the hypothesis that observed changes are biologically mediated and are not the result of changes in long-term hydrology. Concurrent with the decrease in inorganic N export, we report sustained increases in terrestrial N accumulation in forest biomass and soils across northern Sweden. Given the close communication of nutrient and energy stores between plants, soils, and waters, our results indicate a regional tightening of the N cycle in an already N-limited environment as a result of changes in forest management and climate-mediated growth increases. Our results are consistent with declining inorganic N efflux previously reported from small headwater streams in other ecosystems and shed new light on the mechanisms controlling these patterns by identifying corresponding shifts in the terrestrial N balance, which have been altered by a combination of management activities and climate change. PMID:27209794

  11. Climate drying and associated forest decline in the lowlands of northern Guatemala during the late Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mueller, Andreas D.; Islebe, Gerald A.; Hillesheim, Michael B.; Grzesik, Dustin A.; Anselmetti, Flavio S.; Ariztegui, Daniel; Brenner, Mark; Curtis, Jason H.; Hodell, David A.; Venz, Kathryn A.

    2009-03-01

    Palynological studies document forest disappearance during the late Holocene in the tropical Maya lowlands of northern Guatemala. The question remains as to whether this vegetation change was driven exclusively by anthropogenic deforestation, as previously suggested, or whether it was partly attributable to climate changes. We report multiple palaeoclimate and palaeoenvironment proxies (pollen, geochemical, sedimentological) from sediment cores collected in Lake Petén Itzá, northern Guatemala. Our data indicate that the earliest phase of late Holocene tropical forest reduction in this area started at ˜ 4500 cal yr BP, simultaneous with the onset of a circum-Caribbean drying trend that lasted for ˜ 1500 yr. This forest decline preceded the appearance of anthropogenically associated Zea mays pollen. We conclude that vegetation changes in Petén during the period from ˜ 4500 to ˜ 3000 cal yr BP were largely a consequence of dry climate conditions. Furthermore, palaeoclimate data from low latitudes in North Africa point to teleconnective linkages of this drying trend on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean.

  12. Primates Decline Rapidly in Unprotected Forests: Evidence from a Monitoring Program with Data Constraints

    PubMed Central

    Rovero, Francesco; Mtui, Arafat; Kitegile, Amani; Jacob, Philipo; Araldi, Alessandro; Tenan, Simone

    2015-01-01

    Growing threats to primates in tropical forests make robust and long-term population abundance assessments increasingly important for conservation. Concomitantly, monitoring becomes particularly relevant in countries with primate habitat. Yet monitoring schemes in these countries often suffer from logistic constraints and/or poor rigor in data collection, and a lack of consideration of sources of bias in analysis. To address the need for feasible monitoring schemes and flexible analytical tools for robust trend estimates, we analyzed data collected by local technicians on abundance of three species of arboreal monkey in the Udzungwa Mountains of Tanzania (two Colobus species and one Cercopithecus), an area of international importance for primate endemism and conservation. We counted primate social groups along eight line transects in two forest blocks in the area, one protected and one unprotected, over a span of 11 years. We applied a recently proposed open metapopulation model to estimate abundance trends while controlling for confounding effects of observer, site, and season. Primate populations were stable in the protected forest, while the colobines, including the endemic Udzungwa red colobus, declined severely in the unprotected forest. Targeted hunting pressure at this second site is the most plausible explanation for the trend observed. The unexplained variability in detection probability among transects was greater than the variability due to observers, indicating consistency in data collection among observers. There were no significant differences in both primate abundance and detectability between wet and dry seasons, supporting the choice of sampling during the dry season only based on minimizing practical constraints. Results show that simple monitoring routines implemented by trained local technicians can effectively detect changes in primate populations in tropical countries. The hierarchical Bayesian model formulation adopted provides a flexible

  13. Primates decline rapidly in unprotected forests: evidence from a monitoring program with data constraints.

    PubMed

    Rovero, Francesco; Mtui, Arafat; Kitegile, Amani; Jacob, Philipo; Araldi, Alessandro; Tenan, Simone

    2015-01-01

    Growing threats to primates in tropical forests make robust and long-term population abundance assessments increasingly important for conservation. Concomitantly, monitoring becomes particularly relevant in countries with primate habitat. Yet monitoring schemes in these countries often suffer from logistic constraints and/or poor rigor in data collection, and a lack of consideration of sources of bias in analysis. To address the need for feasible monitoring schemes and flexible analytical tools for robust trend estimates, we analyzed data collected by local technicians on abundance of three species of arboreal monkey in the Udzungwa Mountains of Tanzania (two Colobus species and one Cercopithecus), an area of international importance for primate endemism and conservation. We counted primate social groups along eight line transects in two forest blocks in the area, one protected and one unprotected, over a span of 11 years. We applied a recently proposed open metapopulation model to estimate abundance trends while controlling for confounding effects of observer, site, and season. Primate populations were stable in the protected forest, while the colobines, including the endemic Udzungwa red colobus, declined severely in the unprotected forest. Targeted hunting pressure at this second site is the most plausible explanation for the trend observed. The unexplained variability in detection probability among transects was greater than the variability due to observers, indicating consistency in data collection among observers. There were no significant differences in both primate abundance and detectability between wet and dry seasons, supporting the choice of sampling during the dry season only based on minimizing practical constraints. Results show that simple monitoring routines implemented by trained local technicians can effectively detect changes in primate populations in tropical countries. The hierarchical Bayesian model formulation adopted provides a flexible

  14. Comparison of in situ measurements of forest decline symptoms in Vermont (USA) and the Schwarzwald (FRG)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rock, B. N.; Hoshizaki, T.; Lichtenthaler, H.; Schmuck, G.

    1986-01-01

    Field analyses were conducted at spruce/fir sites in the U.S. and Germany undergoing forest decline. Data gathered from common branch samples included reflectance curves, fluorescence measurements, and pigment concentrations. Similar reflectance signatures are seen for specimens from all sites. Reflectance spectra from specimens collected from high damage sites in both countries show a characteristic reflectance drop in the near infrared and a shift (5 nm) of the red edge to shorter wavelengths. Fluorescence data suggest altered state of health of photosynthetic pigments only in specimens from German high damage sites, and pigment extraction and analysis indicate a reduction in total chlorophyll, a decrease in chlorophyll b when compared with chlorophyll a, and a relative increase in carotenoids.

  15. [Historic record of Gastrotheca ovifera (Anura: Hemiphractidae): decline evidence in Venezuelan coastal cloud forests].

    PubMed

    Valera-Leal, Javier; Acevedo, Aldemar; Pérez-Sánchez, Antonio; Vega, Jorge; Manzanilla, Jesús

    2011-03-01

    G. ovifera is a marsupial frog of the cloud and riparian forest from Western and Litoral sections of the Venezuelan Cordillera de la Costa (820-2 000m). This amphibian is considered as an endangered species by the IUCN Species Red List, due to its population decline in pristine and well preserved environments. This conservation status is based on anecdotic interpretations. We collected disperse data from museum records (national and international) and explored the possible association between collection records and precipitation data available for the Henri Pittier National Park (PNHP). Likewise, we carried out a systematic population monitoring of G. ovifera in historic and additional localities among the cloud forest of Rancho Grande, PNHP. We found 106 individuals in 11 zoological collections deposited during 1929-2007. After an effort of 646 hours/person we did not detect G. ovifera individuals in the evaluated localities; as well as no statistical significant associations between the annual precipitation average and the historic records of the species during 1941-1997 period (r = -0.054, p = 0.820, n = 19). We discussed the distribution, fluctuation and population changes of this species, analyzing it conservation status. PMID:21516654

  16. Shifting Baselines on a Tropical Forest Frontier: Extirpations Drive Declines in Local Ecological Knowledge

    PubMed Central

    Kai, Zhang; Woan, Teoh Shu; Jie, Li; Goodale, Eben; Kitajima, Kaoru; Bagchi, Robert; Harrison, Rhett D.

    2014-01-01

    The value of local ecological knowledge (LEK) to conservation is increasingly recognised, but LEK is being rapidly lost as indigenous livelihoods change. Biodiversity loss is also a driver of the loss of LEK, but quantitative study is lacking. In our study landscape in SW China, a large proportion of species have been extirpated. Hence, we were interested to understand whether species extirpation might have led to an erosion of LEK and the implications this might have for conservation. So we investigated peoples' ability to name a selection of birds and mammals in their local language from pictures. Age was correlated to frequency of forest visits as a teenager and is likely to be closely correlated to other known drivers of the loss of LEK, such as declining forest dependence. We found men were better at identifying birds overall and that older people were better able to identify birds to the species as compared to group levels (approximately equivalent to genus). The effect of age was also stronger among women. However, after controlling for these factors, species abundance was by far the most important parameter in determining peoples' ability to name birds. People were unable to name any locally extirpated birds at the species level. However, contrary to expectations, people were better able to identify extirpated mammals at the species level than extant ones. However, extirpated mammals tend to be more charismatic species and several respondents indicated they were only familiar with them through TV documentaries. Younger people today cannot experience the sights and sounds of forest animals that their parents grew up with and, consequently, knowledge of these species is passing from cultural memory. We suggest that engaging older members of the community and linking the preservation of LEK to biodiversity conservation may help generate support for conservation. PMID:24466163

  17. Shifting baselines on a tropical forest frontier: extirpations drive declines in local ecological knowledge.

    PubMed

    Kai, Zhang; Woan, Teoh Shu; Jie, Li; Goodale, Eben; Kitajima, Kaoru; Bagchi, Robert; Harrison, Rhett D

    2014-01-01

    The value of local ecological knowledge (LEK) to conservation is increasingly recognised, but LEK is being rapidly lost as indigenous livelihoods change. Biodiversity loss is also a driver of the loss of LEK, but quantitative study is lacking. In our study landscape in SW China, a large proportion of species have been extirpated. Hence, we were interested to understand whether species extirpation might have led to an erosion of LEK and the implications this might have for conservation. So we investigated peoples' ability to name a selection of birds and mammals in their local language from pictures. Age was correlated to frequency of forest visits as a teenager and is likely to be closely correlated to other known drivers of the loss of LEK, such as declining forest dependence. We found men were better at identifying birds overall and that older people were better able to identify birds to the species as compared to group levels (approximately equivalent to genus). The effect of age was also stronger among women. However, after controlling for these factors, species abundance was by far the most important parameter in determining peoples' ability to name birds. People were unable to name any locally extirpated birds at the species level. However, contrary to expectations, people were better able to identify extirpated mammals at the species level than extant ones. However, extirpated mammals tend to be more charismatic species and several respondents indicated they were only familiar with them through TV documentaries. Younger people today cannot experience the sights and sounds of forest animals that their parents grew up with and, consequently, knowledge of these species is passing from cultural memory. We suggest that engaging older members of the community and linking the preservation of LEK to biodiversity conservation may help generate support for conservation. PMID:24466163

  18. Looking for age-related growth decline in natural forests: unexpected biomass patterns from tree rings and simulated mortality

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Foster, Jane R.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Bradford, John B.

    2014-01-01

    Forest biomass growth is almost universally assumed to peak early in stand development, near canopy closure, after which it will plateau or decline. The chronosequence and plot remeasurement approaches used to establish the decline pattern suffer from limitations and coarse temporal detail. We combined annual tree ring measurements and mortality models to address two questions: first, how do assumptions about tree growth and mortality influence reconstructions of biomass growth? Second, under what circumstances does biomass production follow the model that peaks early, then declines? We integrated three stochastic mortality models with a census tree-ring data set from eight temperate forest types to reconstruct stand-level biomass increments (in Minnesota, USA). We compared growth patterns among mortality models, forest types and stands. Timing of peak biomass growth varied significantly among mortality models, peaking 20–30 years earlier when mortality was random with respect to tree growth and size, than when mortality favored slow-growing individuals. Random or u-shaped mortality (highest in small or large trees) produced peak growth 25–30 % higher than the surviving tree sample alone. Growth trends for even-aged, monospecific Pinus banksiana or Acer saccharum forests were similar to the early peak and decline expectation. However, we observed continually increasing biomass growth in older, low-productivity forests of Quercus rubra, Fraxinus nigra, and Thuja occidentalis. Tree-ring reconstructions estimated annual changes in live biomass growth and identified more diverse development patterns than previous methods. These detailed, long-term patterns of biomass development are crucial for detecting recent growth responses to global change and modeling future forest dynamics.

  19. Drought drove forest decline and dune building in eastern upper Michigan, USA, as the upper Great Lakes became closed basins

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Loope, Walter L.; Loope, Henry M.; Goble, Ronald J.; Fisher, Timothy G.; Lytle, David E.; Legg, Robert J.; Wysocki, Douglas A.; Hanson, Paul R.; Young, Aaron R.

    2012-01-01

    Current models of landscape response to Holocene climate change in midcontinent North America largely reconcile Earth orbital and atmospheric climate forcing with pollen-based forest histories on the east and eolian chronologies in Great Plains grasslands on the west. However, thousands of sand dunes spread across 12,000 km2 in eastern upper Michigan (EUM), more than 500 km east of the present forest-prairie ecotone, present a challenge to such models. We use 65 optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) ages on quartz sand deposited in silt caps (n = 8) and dunes (n = 57) to document eolian activity in EUM. Dune building was widespread ca. 10–8 ka, indicating a sharp, sustained decline in forest cover during that period. This decline was roughly coincident with hydrologic closure of the upper Great Lakes, but temporally inconsistent with most pollen-based models that imply canopy closure throughout the Holocene. Early Holocene forest openings are rarely recognized in pollen sums from EUM because faint signatures of non-arboreal pollen are largely obscured by abundant and highly mobile pine pollen. Early Holocene spikes in nonarboreal pollen are recorded in cores from small ponds, but suggest only a modest extent of forest openings. OSL dating of dune emplacement provides a direct, spatially explicit archive of greatly diminished forest cover during a very dry climate in eastern midcontinent North America ca. 10–8 ka.

  20. Climate and local geomorphic interactions drive patterns of riparian forest decline along a Mediterranean Basin river

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stella, John C.; Riddle, Jess; Piégay, Hervé; Gagnage, Matthieu; Trémélo, Marie-Laure

    2013-11-01

    Dynamic fluvial processes strongly influence ecological communities and ecosystem health in riverine and riparian ecosystems, particularly in drought-prone regions. In these systems, there is a need to develop tools to measure impacts from local and regional hydrogeomorphic changes on the key biological and physical processes that sustain riparian ecosystem health and potential recovery. We used dendrochronology of Populus nigra, a riparian tree that is vulnerable to changes in local hydrology, to analyze ecosystem response following channel incision due to gravel mining along the Drôme River, a Mediterranean Basin stream in southern France. We cored 55 trees at seven floodplain sites, measured ring widths, and calculated basal area growth to compare the severity and timing of local growth decline along the river. Current basal area increment (BAI) growth per tree ranged almost 10-fold among sites (7.7 ± 1.3 to 63.9 ± 15.2 cm2 year- 1, mean ± SE) and these differences were significant. Mean BAI was correlated positively with the proportion of healthy trees at a site, and negatively with proportion of dead canopy area. Regime shift analysis of the tree-ring series indicates that tree growth declined significantly at four sites since 1978, coincident with documented channel incision. In addition, patterns of low growth and crown dieback are consistent with stress due to reduced water supply. The most impaired sites were not directly adjacent to local mining pits visible on aerial photographs, nor did the sequence of growth regime shifts suggest a pattern of channel incision progressing from these areas. The initiation of site growth declines was most typically associated with drought years, and the most impaired sites were spatially distributed to suggest the influence of local bedrock controls on soil depth. Climate in the Drôme basin and in the Mediterranean region is trending significantly toward hotter growing seasons with a decrease in summer river

  1. Enigmatic declines in bird numbers in lowland forest of eastern Ecuador may be a consequence of climate change

    PubMed Central

    Loiselle, Bette A.

    2015-01-01

    Bird populations have declined in many parts of the world but most of those declines can be attributed to effects of human activities (e.g., habitat fragmentation); declines in areas unaffected by human activities are not common. We have been sampling bird populations at an undisturbed site in lowland forest of eastern Ecuador annually since 2001 using a combination of mist nets and direct observations on two 100-ha plots. Bird numbers fluctuated on both plots during the first 8 years but did not show a consistent pattern of change. Since about 2008, numbers of birds on both plots have declined; capture rates in 2014 were ∼40% less than at the start of the study and observation rates were ∼50% less. Both understory and canopy species declined in abundance. Overall, insectivores showed the most pronounced declines but declines varied among trophic groups. The period from 2008 onward also was a period of stronger La Niña events which, at this study site, are associated with increased rainfall. The mechanism for the declines is not known but likely reflects a combination of reduced reproductive success coupled with reduced survival associated with changing climate. PMID:26339554

  2. Enigmatic declines in bird numbers in lowland forest of eastern Ecuador may be a consequence of climate change.

    PubMed

    Blake, John G; Loiselle, Bette A

    2015-01-01

    Bird populations have declined in many parts of the world but most of those declines can be attributed to effects of human activities (e.g., habitat fragmentation); declines in areas unaffected by human activities are not common. We have been sampling bird populations at an undisturbed site in lowland forest of eastern Ecuador annually since 2001 using a combination of mist nets and direct observations on two 100-ha plots. Bird numbers fluctuated on both plots during the first 8 years but did not show a consistent pattern of change. Since about 2008, numbers of birds on both plots have declined; capture rates in 2014 were ∼40% less than at the start of the study and observation rates were ∼50% less. Both understory and canopy species declined in abundance. Overall, insectivores showed the most pronounced declines but declines varied among trophic groups. The period from 2008 onward also was a period of stronger La Niña events which, at this study site, are associated with increased rainfall. The mechanism for the declines is not known but likely reflects a combination of reduced reproductive success coupled with reduced survival associated with changing climate. PMID:26339554

  3. Amphibian populations in the terrestrial environment: Is there evidence of declines of terrestrial forest amphibians in northwestern California?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Welsh, H.H., Jr.; Fellers, G.M.; Lind, A.J.

    2007-01-01

    Amphibian declines have been documented worldwide; however the vast majority are species associated with aquatic habitats. Information on the status and trends of terrestrial amphibians is almost entirely lacking. Here we use data collected across a 12-yr period (sampling from 1984-86 and from 1993-95) to address the question of whether evidence exists for declines among terrestrial amphibians in northwestern California forests. The majority of amphibians, both species and relative numbers, in these forests are direct-developing salamanders of the family Plethodontidae. We examined amphibian richness and evenness, and the relative abundances of the four most common species of plethodontid salamanders. We examined evidence of differences between years in two ecological provinces (coastal and interior) and across young, mature, and late seral forests and with reference to a moisture gradient from xeric to hydric within late seral forests. We found evidence of declines in species richness across years on late seral mesic stands and in the coastal ecological province, but these differences appeared to be caused by differences in the detection of rarer species, rather than evidence of an overall pattern. We also found differences among specific years in numbers of individuals of the most abundant species, Ensatina eschscholtzii, but these differences also failed to reflect a consistent pattern of declines between the two decadal sample periods. Results showing differences in richness, evenness, and relative abundances along both the seral and moisture continua were consistent with previous research. Overall, we found no compelling evidence of a downward trend in terrestrial plethodontid salamanders. We believe that continued monitoring of terrestrial salamander populations is important to understanding mechanisms of population declines in amphibian species. Copyright 2007 Society for the Study of Amphibians and Reptiles.

  4. European Holocene landscape change: a comparison of pollen-based approaches to reconstructing land use shifts and forest decline

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woodbridge, Jessie; Roberts, Neil; Fyfe, Ralph; Gaillard, Marie-José; Trondman, Anna-Kari; Davis, Basil; Kaplan, Jed

    2016-04-01

    Europe's primaeval forests have been progressively cleared and fragmented since the first appearance of Neolithic farming activities around 6000 years ago. Understanding spatial and temporal changes in forest cover is valuable to researchers interested in past human-environment interactions. Here we present a comparison of reconstructed Holocene forest cover across Europe from three different transformed fossil pollen-based datasets, an extensive modern surface pollen data set, and modern forest cover from remote sensing. The REVEALS approach (Trondman et al., 2015) provides a quantified and validated reconstruction of vegetation incorporating plant productivity estimates, but is currently only available for a limited number of grid cells in mid-latitude and northern Europe for a limited number of time windows. The pseudobiomization (PBM) (Fyfe et al., 2015) and plant functional type (PFT) (Davis et al., 2015) based approaches provide continuous semi-quantitative records of land use change for temperate and Northern Europe spanning the Holocene, but do not provide truly quantified vegetation reconstructions. Estimated modern forest cover based on the various approaches ranges between ~29 and 54%. However, the Holocene estimates of vegetation change show broadly similar trends, with a forest maximum from ~8.2 to ~6 ka BP, and a decline in forest cover after 6 ka BP, accelerating after ~1.2 ka BP. The reconstructions, when broadly disaggregated into northern and mid-latitude Europe, confirm that mid-latitude forest cover has declined more than that in northern Europe over the last 6 ka. The continuous record provided by the PBM has been used to establish a 'half forest loss' date for each grid cell in temperate and northern Europe, which has identified that the timing of forest loss varied spatially with certain regions remaining forested for longer. References Davis BAS, Collins PM, Kaplan JO (2015) The age and post-glacial development of the modern European

  5. Chytridiomycosis causes amphibian mortality associated with population declines in the rain forests of Australia and Central America

    PubMed Central

    Berger, Lee; Speare, Rick; Daszak, Peter; Green, D. Earl; Cunningham, Andrew A.; Goggin, C. Louise; Slocombe, Ron; Ragan, Mark A.; Hyatt, Alex D.; McDonald, Keith R.; Hines, Harry B.; Lips, Karen R.; Marantelli, Gerry; Parkes, Helen

    1998-01-01

    Epidermal changes caused by a chytridiomycete fungus (Chytridiomycota; Chytridiales) were found in sick and dead adult anurans collected from montane rain forests in Queensland (Australia) and Panama during mass mortality events associated with significant population declines. We also have found this new disease associated with morbidity and mortality in wild and captive anurans from additional locations in Australia and Central America. This is the first report of parasitism of a vertebrate by a member of the phylum Chytridiomycota. Experimental data support the conclusion that cutaneous chytridiomycosis is a fatal disease of anurans, and we hypothesize that it is the proximate cause of these recent amphibian declines. PMID:9671799

  6. An evaluation of bur oak (Quercus macrocarpa) decline in the urban forest of Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Catton, H.A.; St., George, S.; Remphrey, W.R.

    2007-01-01

    Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada, has a large, indigenous population of bur oak (Quercus macrocarpa Michx.). In the 1980s, many of these trees were showing signs of decline, a disease caused by a complex of abiotic and secondary biotic stressing agents. Potential causal factors were investigated by comparing various aspects of 120 bur oaks visually rated as healthy or declined based on crown dieback levels. The results indicated that many selected bur oak trees predated surrounding urban development and that declined trees were significantly older with more severe stem wounds and competition from surrounding trees than healthy specimens. Average annual growth ring widths of healthy and declined trees were similar in the early part of the 20th century. However, decline actually began decades before symptoms were noticed, coinciding with a period of in tense city-wide urban development, as growth of declined trees was slower than that of healthy trees beginning sporadically in the 1940s and consistently from 1974 to 2001. During the early years of decline, the year-by-year separation in ring width between the two categories was significantly positively related to precipitation levels. This suggested that in wet years, declined trees may have been surrounded by unfavorable water-logged soils, possibly as a result of natural drainage patterns being impeded by urban development. ?? 2007 International Society of Arboriculture.

  7. Temperature-enhanced decomposition contributes to a decline in soil carbon stocks of a mountain forest after windthrow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mayer, Mathias; Matthews, Bradley; Göransson, Hans; Rewald, Boris; Schindlbacher, Andreas; Godbold, Douglas; Katzensteiner, Klaus

    2015-04-01

    Forest soils store large amounts of organic carbon (OC); the carbon dioxide (CO2) efflux from the soil is one of the largest fluxes in the forest carbon budget. Forest disturbance can significantly affect soil carbon stocks and fluxes of forest ecosystems. As disturbance events are expected to increase under climate change, a detailed understanding of respective effects on the soil carbon budget of forest ecosystems is of major importance. We investigated the temporal dynamics of soil OC stocks and soil CO2 efflux following stand-replacing disturbance by wind in a temperate forest in the Austrian Alps. Over the course of four years, measurements were conducted within a disturbance chronosequence (undisturbed control and two windthrow areas disturbed in 2007 and in 2009, respectively). The annual soil CO2 emissions were estimated at ~ 5 and 5.5 t C ha-1 yr-1 for the windthrow areas and for the control stand, respectively. About 15 to 20 % of the annual soil CO2 emissions from the windthrows were attributed to a disturbance-related increase in soil temperature (up to +4 °C). A clipping experiment (aboveground vegetation was removed) at the windthrow areas revealed that about three-quarter of the soil CO2 efflux originated from microbial respiration, suggesting a large loss of soil OC to the atmosphere. In accordance, significantly lower soil OC stocks were observed at the 2007 windthrow area when compared to the control stand in the seventh year post-disturbance. Thus, temperature-enhanced decomposition significantly contributes to the decline in the soil OC stocks following forest disturbance by wind. This study was funded by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), national funding and the Austrian climate research program StartClim2012.

  8. Use of TMS/TM data for mapping of forest decline damage in the northeastern United States. [Thematic Mapper Simulator (TMS) Thematic Mapper (TM)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rock, B. N.; Vogelmann, J. E.

    1986-01-01

    Remote sensing systems were used to monitor forest decline damage suspected of being due to air pollution. Field activities and aircraft overflights were centered on montane spruce/fir forest sites. Using aircraft data acquired with the Thematic Mapper Simulator (TMS) and LANDSAT Thematic Mapper (TM) during the growing season, extensive areas of forest decline damage were accurately mapped. Seven levels of decline damage are discrininated and mapped and the levels of discriminated damage agree well (rsq-0.94) with visual assessment conducted on the ground. New areas of high damage were discovered. A band ratio (TM5/TM4) is most useful in discriminating and quantifying the various levels of forest decline damage.

  9. Viewing forests from below: fine root mass declines relative to leaf area in aging lodgepole pine stands.

    PubMed

    Schoonmaker, A S; Lieffers, V J; Landhäusser, S M

    2016-07-01

    In the continued quest to explain the decline in productivity and vigor with aging forest stands, the most poorly studied area relates to root system change in time. This paper measures the wood production, root and leaf area (and mass) in a chronosequence of fire-origin lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Loudon) stands consisting of four age classes (12, 21, 53, and ≥100 years), each replicated ~ five times. Wood productivity was greatest in the 53-year-old stands and then declined in the ≥100-year-old stands. Growth efficiency, the quantity of wood produced per unit leaf mass, steadily declined with age. Leaf mass and fine root mass plateaued between the 53- and ≥100-year-old stands, but leaf area index actually increased in the older stands. An increase in the leaf area index:fine root area ratio supports the idea that older stand are potentially limited by soil resources. Other factors contributing to slower growth in older stands might be lower soil temperatures and increased self-shading due to the clumped nature of crowns. Collectively, the proportionally greater reduction in fine roots in older stands might be the variable that predisposes these forests to be at a potentially greater risk of stress-induced mortality. PMID:27041684

  10. Drying of Floodplain Forests Associated with Water-Level Decline in the Apalachicola River, Florida - Interim Results, 2006

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Darst, Melanie R.; Light, Helen M.

    2007-01-01

    Floodplain forests of the Apalachicola River, Florida, are drier in composition today (2006) than they were before 1954, and drying is expected to continue for at least the next 50 years. Drier forest composition is probably caused by water-level declines that occurred as a result of physical changes in the main channel after 1954 and decreased flows in spring and summer months since the 1970s. Forest plots sampled from 2004 to 2006 were compared to forests sampled in the late 1970s (1976-79) using a Floodplain Index (FI) based on species dominance weighted by the Floodplain Species Category, a value that represents the tolerance of tree species to inundation and saturation in the floodplain and consequently, the typical historic floodplain habitat for that species. Two types of analyses were used to determine forest changes over time: replicate plot analysis comparing present (2004-06) canopy composition to late 1970s canopy composition at the same locations, and analyses comparing the composition of size classes of trees on plots in late 1970s and in present forests. An example of a size class analysis would be a comparison of the composition of the entire canopy (all trees greater than 7.5 cm (centimeter) diameter at breast height (dbh)) to the composition of the large canopy tree size class (greater than or equal to 25 cm dbh) at one location. The entire canopy, which has a mixture of both young and old trees, is probably indicative of more recent hydrologic conditions than the large canopy, which is assumed to have fewer young trees. Change in forest composition from the pre-1954 period to approximately 2050 was estimated by combining results from three analyses. The composition of pre-1954 forests was represented by the large canopy size class sampled in the late 1970s. The average FI for canopy trees was 3.0 percent drier than the average FI for the large canopy tree size class, indicating that the late 1970s forests were 3.0 percent drier than pre-1954

  11. Declines in Soil pH due to Anthropogenic Nitrogen Inputs Alter Buffering and Exchange Reactions in Tropical Forest Soils

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lohse, K. A.

    2003-12-01

    Anthropogenic nitrogen (N) inputs may alter tropical soil buffering and exchange reactions that have important implications for nutrient cycling, forest productivity, and downstream ecosystems. In contrast to relatively young temperate soils that are typically buffered from N inputs by base cation reactions, aluminum reactions may serve to buffer highly weathered tropical soils and result in immediate increases in aluminum mobility and toxicity. Increased nitrate losses due to chronic N inputs may also deplete residual base cations in already weathered base cation-poor soils, further acidify soils, and thereby reduce nitrate mobility through pH-dependent anion exchange reactions. To test these hypotheses, I determined soil pH and cation and anion exchange capacity (CEC and AEC) and measured base cation and aluminum soil solution losses following first-time and long-term experimental N additions from two Hawaiian tropical forest soils, a 300 year old Andisol and a 4.1 million year old Oxisol. I found that elevated base cation losses accompanied increased nitrate losses after first time N additions to the young Andisol whereas immediate and large aluminum losses were associated with increased nitrate losses from the Oxisol. In the long-term, base cation and aluminum losses increased in proportion to nitrate losses. Long-term N additions at both sites resulted in significant declines in soil pH, decreased CEC and increased AEC. These results suggest that even chronic N inputs resulting in small but elevated nitrate losses may deplete residual base cations, increase mobility and toxicity of aluminum, and potentially lead to declines in forest productivity and acidification of downstream ecosystems. These findings also suggest that AEC may provide a long-term mechanism to delay nitrate losses in tropical forests with significant variable charge that are experiencing chronic anthropogenic N inputs.

  12. GROWTH-TREND DECLINES OF SPRUCE AND FIR IN MID-APPALACHIAN SUBALPINE FORESTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Dendroecological analysis of 258 increment growth cores collected from red spruce, balsam fir, and Fraser fir in central West Virginia and western Virginia indicates marked declines in growth-trend during the past 20 years similar to that reported for spruce and fir in high-eleva...

  13. Occupancy patterns of regionally declining grassland sparrow populations in a forested Pennsylvania landscape.

    PubMed

    Hill, Jason M; Diefenbach, Duane R

    2014-06-01

    Organisms can be affected by processes in the surrounding landscape outside the boundary of habitat areas and by local vegetation characteristics. There is substantial interest in understanding how these processes affect populations of grassland birds, which have experienced substantial population declines. Much of our knowledge regarding patterns of occupancy and density stem from prairie systems, whereas relatively little is known regarding how occurrence and abundance of grassland birds vary in reclaimed surface mine grasslands. Using distance sampling and single-season occupancy models, we investigated how the occupancy probability of Grasshopper (Ammodramus savannarum) and Henslow's Sparrows (A. henslowii) on 61 surface mine grasslands (1591 ha) in Pennsylvania changed from 2002 through 2011 in response to landscape, grassland, and local vegetation characteristics . A subset (n = 23; 784 ha) of those grasslands were surveyed in 2002, and we estimated changes in sparrow density and vegetation across 10 years. Grasshopper and Henslow's Sparrow populations declined 72% and 49%, respectively from 2002 to 2011, whereas overall woody vegetation density increased 2.6 fold. Henslow's Sparrows avoided grasslands with perimeter-area ratios ≥0.141 km/ha and woody shrub densities ≥0.04 shrubs/m(2). Both species occupied grasslands ≤13 ha, but occupancy probability declined with increasing grassland perimeter-area ratio and woody shrub density. Grassland size, proximity to nearest neighboring grassland (x = 0.2 km), and surrounding landscape composition at 0.5, 1.5, and 3.0 km were not parsimonious predictors of occupancy probability for either species. Our results suggest that reclaimed surface mine grasslands, without management intervention, are ephemeral habitats for Grasshopper and Henslow's Sparrows. Given the forecasted decline in surface coal production for Pennsylvania, it is likely that both species will continue to decline in our study region for the

  14. Multi-Scale Drivers of Riparian Forest Decline Along a Mediterranean-Climate River

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stella, J. C.; Riddle, J.; Piégay, H.; Gagnage, M.; Trémolo, M.

    2010-12-01

    Variation in water availability is a major driver of ecological communities and ecosystem health in riverine and riparian ecosystems, particularly in Mediterranean and other semi-arid regions. Competition for water resources from humans has stressed these ecosystems worldwide, and population growth, land use and climate change threaten to further impair already vulnerable ecological communities. In riparian zones, there is a need to develop tools to measure these impacts on the key biological and physical processes that sustain ecosystem health and potential recovery. We used dendrochronology of Populus nigra, a riparian tree that is vulnerable to changes in local hydrology, to analyze ecosystem response following gravel mining along the Drôme River, a Mediterranean-climate stream in southern France. We cored trees (N=55) at seven floodplain sites, measured ring widths, and calculated site-based indices of growth to compare the severity and timing of local growth decline along the river. Results indicate that tree growth has declined at some sites coincident with documented channel incision, and that patterns of low growth and crown dieback are consistent with stress due to reduced water supply. Sites varied significantly in recent tree growth rate (F6,34=3.55, p<0.01) and this was not due to tree age, individual size at an early age, or stand density. The site-based, age-corrected index of recent radial growth varied 5-fold between sites (range 0.5±0.08 to 2.3±0.60 unitless growth index, mean 1±SE). Growth index was negatively correlated with proportion of dead crown (r = -0.71), though the relationship was non-linear, with low growth for the three sites that experienced the greatest crown dieback. Regime Shift Detection analysis of site chronologies showed significant sustained growth decline (p<0.05) at four sites after 1980, following the period of intensive instream mining downstream. Site growth declines were not simultaneous, however, nor sequenced in a

  15. Reproductive Performance of a Declining Forest Passerine in Relation to Environmental and Social Factors: Implications for Species Conservation

    PubMed Central

    Grendelmeier, Alex; Arlettaz, Raphaël; Gerber, Michael; Pasinelli, Gilberto

    2015-01-01

    Identifying factors influencing a species' ecological niche and demography is a prerequisite for species conservation. However, our understanding of the interplay between demographic rates and biotic/abiotic factors is still poor for most species of conservation concern. We evaluated relevance of eight hypotheses relating to timing of breeding, temporal nest exposure, nest concealment, topography, tree structure, predation risk and disturbance, density dependence and weather for explaining variation in reproductive performance of the declining wood warbler Phylloscopus sibilatrix in northern Switzerland. Reproductive performance was monitored with cameras at 136 nests from 2010 to 2012 and was associated to temporal exposure, timing of breeding and concealment of nests. Daily nest survival was positively related to the number of grass and sedge tussocks, nest concealment and nest age. Clutch size and number of fledglings decreased, the later in the season a nest was initiated. Nest survival over an average nesting period of 31 days was 46.9 ± 0.07% (mean ± SE), daily nest survival rate was 0.976 ± 0.002. As for many ground-breeding birds, nest predation was the principal cause of nest failure, accounting for 79% of all nest losses. Conservation measures should aim at increasing the area of relatively homogenous forest stands featuring suitable habitats characterized by abundant and accessible grass and sedge tussocks. In managed forests, such conditions can be found in stands of middle age (i.e. pole wood) with little to no shrub layer. PMID:26172954

  16. Acid fog deposition and the declining forest in Tanzawa mountains, Japan.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Igawa, M.; Shigihara, A.; Goto, S.; Nanzai, B.

    2010-07-01

    Since 1988, we have investigated fog chemistry in Mt. Oyama, Tanzawa mountains, Japan, and acid fog has been frequently observed there. We have observed fog on Mt. Oyama by using a night view video camera placed at the base of the mountain, by using a visibility meter at the top of the mountain, and by an active fog sampler at the mountainside. We have reported the fog frequency at the top of Mt. Oyama to be 46% measured by the video camera, but it was overestimated. The visibility measured at the top of the mountain is the most reliable index, and the top of the mountain is covered with fog for about 30%. The frequency of about 15% was added for the case of the visibility of a few km when it was measured by a night view video camera placed at the base of the mountain (8.5 km far from the top). Fog-water deposition increases with the increasing altitude to be much larger than the rain-water deposition. The factors affecting on the occult precipitation intensity were investigated by the simultaneous measurement of the rainfall intensity under a canopy, the wind speed and direction, and the visibility at the top of the mountain. Air pollution has been improved recently in Japan, but acid fog is not improved and has been affecting the leaves of the trees. In Tanzawa mountains, many fir trees and beech trees are declining, while cedar trees show no decline symptoms. We have investigated the effect of acid fog on the trees of these species by exposing simulated acid fog on the seedlings of the species. Seedlings of fir and beech are much damaged by the long term exposure of pH 3 fog, while cedar seedlings are not affected by the acid fog. By the exposure of simulated acid fog, the epicuticle wax is eroded at first, then the cross linking polycation between sugar chains of cell wall is ion-exchanged with proton and the cell wall is swollen, and the membrane calcium is desorbed from the membrane, which lowers the tolerance of the trees to the climate change. Fir and beech

  17. Air pollutant deposition at declining forest sites of the Tanzawa Mountains, Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Igawa, Manabu; Kojima, Kyosuke; Yoshimoto, Osamu; Nanzai, Ben

    2015-01-01

    Fir and beech trees have been dying in the Tanzawa Mountains, which are located southwest of the Kanto Plain. We have observed fog characteristics since 1988 in Mt. Oyama, which is isolated from others, located southeast of the Mountains. Acid fog has been frequently observed there. The annual mean pH of the fog has remained roughly constant, but the pH distribution of fog has shifted to higher pH recently, which corresponds closely with the improvement of air pollution at the base of Mt. Oyama. Acid fog is still formed, and it may have affected tree species such as fir and beech, which are sensitive to air pollution. We observed rainy periods and foggy periods using a visibility meter at the mountain top. The canopies at the high altitude are confirmed to be wetted for a long period, which might enhance the air pollutant deposition. We also observed air pollution and wet deposition at Mt. Nabewari, located southwest of the Tanzawa Mountains. The acid gas concentrations are about the same level in the two mountains and are in the order of SO2 > HNO3 > HCl. Comparison of wet deposition at the summit of Mt. Nabewari to that of Mt. Oyama also revealed that they were of similar levels. In the Tanzawa Mountains, fir trees and beech trees are declining by the damage of acid fog, although the high concentration ozone and the other factors may have also affected them.

  18. Comparing Three Methods of Sampling Throughfall in a Declining Coniferous Forest at a low Rainfall Site

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carlyle-Moses, D. E.; Kinniburgh, S. M.; Giesbrecht, W. J.; McKee, A. J.; Lishman, C. E.

    2009-05-01

    The Mayson Lake Hydrological Processes Study area is located in the southern interior of British Columbia ˜ 60 km NNW of the City of Kamloops on the Thompson - Bonaparte Plateau (51.2° N, 120.4° W; 1260 m a.m.s.l.). During the summer of 2008 throughfall was measured in a mature declining mixed lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia Dougl.) - hybrid spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss. x engelmanni Perry x Engelm.) - subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa (Hook.) Nutt.) stand, where pines were at the grey - attack stage of a mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Scolytidae) infestation. Throughfall was estimated on a rainfall event basis using three sampling strategies: 32 stationary wedge gauges, 32 roving wedge gauges that were moved periodically during the study period, and 16 stationary trough gauges. The wedge gauges had a catch area of 36 cm2 each, while the trough gauges had a catch area of 2900 cm2 each, ˜ 80 times larger than the wedge gauges. Throughfall depth (mm) for all three sampling methods followed a power relationship with rainfall depth (mm). No significant difference in the slopes or intercepts of the three power relationships were found (α = 0.05). Thus the throughfall data were pooled to give the following equation relating throughfall depth (mm) to event rainfall depth (mm): TF = 0.348Pg1.33, r2 = 0.93, n = 14. An efficiency ratio was derived for this study to compare the sampling accuracy among the three sampling methods used. The efficiency ratio ER between two sampling methods was calculated as n1 / n2, where n1 and n2 are the number of samples required to meet a statistical objective using the method that produces the lowest and highest coefficient of variation (CV) values, respectively. The number of required samples (gauges) for a given method, ni, is found using: t2 x CV2 / CI2, where t is the student t value and CI is the desired confidence interval around the mean expressed as a percentage. Assuming t = 2 and keeping CI

  19. Signature of a Pre-Human Population Decline in the Critically Endangered Reunion Island Endemic Forest Bird Coracina newtoni

    PubMed Central

    Salmona, Jordi; Salamolard, Marc; Fouillot, Damien; Ghestemme, Thomas; Larose, Jerry; Centon, Jean-François; Sousa, Vitor; Dawson, Deborah A.; Thebaud, Christophe; Chikhi, Lounès

    2012-01-01

    The exceptional biodiversity of Reunion Island is threatened by anthropogenic landscape changes that took place during the 350 years of human colonization. During this period the human population size increased dramatically from 250 to 800,000. The arrival of humans together with the development of agriculture, invasive species such as rats and cats, and deforestation has lead to the extinction of more than half of the original vertebrate species of the island. For the remaining species, significant work is being carried out to identify threats and conservation status, but little genetic work has been carried on some of the most endangered species. In the last decade theoretical studies have shown the ability of neutral genetic markers to infer the demographic history of endangered species and identify and date past population size changes (expansions or bottlenecks). In this study we provide the first genetic data on the critically endangered species the Reunion cuckoo-shrike Coracina newtoni. The Reunion cuckoo-shrike is a rare endemic forest bird surviving in a restricted 12-km2 area of forested uplands and mountains. The total known population consists of less than one hundred individuals out of which 45 were genotyped using seventeen polymorphic microsatellite loci. We found a limited level of genetic variability and weak population structure, probably due to the limited geographic distribution. Using Bayesian methods, we identified a strong decline in population size during the Holocene, most likely caused by an ancient climatic or volcanic event around 5000 years ago. This result was surprising as it appeared in apparent contradiction with the accepted theory of recent population collapse due to deforestation and predator introduction. These results suggest that new methods allowing for more complex demographic models are necessary to reconstruct the demographic history of populations. PMID:22916272

  20. The Declining Cocoa Economy and the Atlantic Forest of Southern Bahia, Brazil: Conservation Attitudes of Cocoa Planters.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alger, Keith; Caldas, Marcellus

    1994-01-01

    Causes of the degradation of Brazilian Atlantic Forest in the southeastern cocoa region of the State of Bahia are investigated by means of a survey on cocoa planter's forest conservation attitudes. Policies encouraging private forest conservation, and development of forest-conserving agricultural alternatives for landless poor are recommended. (LZ)

  1. The Role of Forest Tent Caterpillar Defoliations and Partial Harvest in the Decline and Death of Sugar Maple

    PubMed Central

    Hartmann, Henrik; Messier, Christian

    2008-01-01

    Background and Aims Natural and anthropogenic disturbances can act as stresses on tree vigour. According to Manion's conceptual model of tree disease, the initial vigour of trees decreases as a result of predisposing factors that render these trees more vulnerable to severe inciting stresses, stresses that can then cause final vigour decline and subsequent tree death. This tree disease model was tested in sugar maple (Acer saccharum) by assessing the roles of natural and anthropogenic disturbances in tree decline and death. Methods Radial growth data from 377 sugar maple trees that had undergone both defoliations by insects and partial harvest were used to estimate longitudinal survival probabilities as a proxy for tree vigour. Radial growth rates and survival probabilities were compared among trees subjected to different levels of above- and below-ground disturbances, between periods of defoliation and harvest, and between live and dead trees. Key Results Manion's tree disease model correctly accounts for vigour decline and tree death in sugar maple; tree growth and vigour were negatively affected by a first defoliation, predisposing these trees to death later during the study period due to a second insect outbreak that initiated a final vigour decline. This decline was accelerated by the partial harvest disturbance in 1993. Even the most severe anthropogenic disturbances from partial harvest did not cause, unlike insect defoliation, any growth or vigour declines in live sugar maple. Conclusions Natural disturbances acted as predisposing and inciting stresses in tree sugar maple decline and death. Anthropogenic disturbances from a partial harvest at worst accelerated a decline in trees that were already weakened by predisposing and inciting stresses (i.e. repeated insect defoliations). Favourable climatic conditions just before and after the partial harvest may have alleviated possible negative effects on growth resulting from harvesting. PMID:18660493

  2. Preliminary assessment of airborne imaging spectrometer and airborne thematic mapper data acquired for forest decline areas in the Federal Republic of Germany

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Herrmann, Karin; Ammer, Ulrich; Rock, Barrett; Paley, Helen N.

    1988-01-01

    This study evaluated the utility of data collected by the high-spectral resolution airborne imaging spectrometer (AIS-2, tree mode, spectral range 0.8-2.2 microns) and the broad-band Daedalus airborne thematic mapper (ATM, spectral range 0.42-13.0 micron) in assessing forest decline damage at a predominantly Scotch pine forest in the FRG. Analysis of spectral radiance values from the ATM and raw digital number values from AIS-2 showed that higher reflectance in the near infrared was characteristic of high damage (heavy chlorosis, limited needle loss) in Scotch pine canopies. A classification image of a portion of the AIS-2 flight line agreed very well with a damage assessment map produced by standard aerial photointerpretation techniques.

  3. Effects of calcite and magnesite application to a declining Masson pine forest on strongly acidified soil in Southwestern China.

    PubMed

    Huang, Yongmei; Kang, Ronghua; Ma, Xiaoxiao; Qi, Yu; Mulder, Jan; Duan, Lei

    2014-05-15

    Liming of strongly acidified soil under a Masson pine (Pinus massoniana Lamb.) forest was studied through a seven-year field manipulation experiment at Tieshanping, Chongqing in Southwestern China. To distinguish between the individual effects of Ca(2+) and Mg(2+) addition, we separately applied calcite (CaCO3) and magnesite (MgCO3), rather than using dolomite [CaMg(CO3)2]. Both calcite and magnesite additions caused a significant increase in pH and a decrease in dissolved inorganic monomeric aluminium (Ali) concentration of soil water. Ecological recovery included increases of herb biomass (both treatments) and Mg content in Masson pine needles (magnesite treatment only). However, the growth rate of Masson pine did not increase under either treatment, possibly because of nutrient imbalance due to phosphorus (P) deficiency or limited observation period. In China, acid deposition in forest ecosystems commonly coincides with large inputs of atmogenic Ca(2+), both enhancing Mg(2+) leaching. Calcite addition may further decrease the Mg(2+) availability in soil water, thereby exacerbating Mg(2+) deficiency in the acidified forest soils of southern and southwestern China. The effect of anthropogenic acidification of naturally acid forest soils on P availability needs further study. PMID:24631610

  4. Importance of adult survival, local recruitment and immigration in a declining boreal forest passerine, the willow tit Parus montanus.

    PubMed

    Lampila, Satu; Orell, Markku; Belda, Eduardo; Koivula, Kari

    2006-06-01

    Population growth rate (lambda) and its components (adult survival, local recruitment, immigration and their relative contributions to lambda) were studied in the declining willow tit Parus montanus in Northern Finland. Capture-recapture models for open populations were used to estimate the population parameters and their process variation. Adult survival was fairly high with low variation (0.593, CV=0.067). As expected, local recruitment was lower and more variable (0.063, CV=0.610). During the 12-year study, the population growth rate averaged to one (0.988, CV=0.197; calculated as [see text]. However, if the present processes continue, population projections show that the population is likely to decline. There was considerable temporal variation in the relative contributions of demographic parameters to lambda. In all years, adult survival had the highest relative contribution (mean 64%) to the population growth rate and it was the least variable trait. Immigration had a higher relative contribution (22%) to lambda than local recruitment (14%). Based on the results for the contributions to lambda, the main conservation concern for willow tits is adult survival. Due to low variation, adult survival may be difficult to enhance, but at least it should be prevented from declining. High stochasticity in local recruitment and immigration is probably an inherent characteristic of highly seasonal environments, making these traits difficult to address for conservation practices. PMID:16514536

  5. You can hide but you can’t run: apparent competition, predator responses and the decline of Arctic ground squirrels in boreal forests of the southwest Yukon

    PubMed Central

    Gillis, Elizabeth A.; Boonstra, Rudy; Krebs, Charles J.

    2016-01-01

    Throughout much of North America’s boreal forest, the cyclical fluctuations of snowshoe hare populations (Lepus americanus) may cause other herbivores to become entrained in similar cycles. Alternating apparent competition via prey switching followed by positive indirect effects are the mechanisms behind this interaction. Our purpose is to document a change in the role of indirect interactions between sympatric populations of hares and arctic ground squirrels (Urocitellus parryii plesius), and to emphasize the influence of predation for controlling ground squirrel numbers. We used mark-recapture to estimate the population densities of both species over a 25-year period that covered two snowshoe hare cycles. We analysed the strength of association between snowshoe hare and ground squirrel numbers, and the changes to the seasonal and annual population growth rates of ground squirrels over time. A hyperbolic curve best describes the per capita rate of increase of ground squirrels relative to their population size, with a single stable equilibrium and a lower critical threshold below which populations drift to extinction. The crossing of this unstable boundary resulted in the subsequent uncoupling of ground squirrel and hare populations following the decline phase of their cycles in 1998. The implications are that this sustained Type II predator response led to the local extinction of ground squirrels. When few individuals are left in a colony, arctic ground squirrels may also have exhibited an Allee effect caused by the disruption of social signalling of approaching predators.

  6. SAYANI'91 - A joint United States/Commonwealth of Independent States field campaign to investigate forest decline damage in the Krasnoyarsk region of southcentral Siberia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Williams, D. L.; Kharuk, V. I.; Zhirin, V. M.; Rock, B. N.; Ranson, K. J.; Wessman, C. A.; Curtiss, B.

    1992-01-01

    The field experiment described took place in the Sayani Mountains of Siberia. The purpose of the joint field campaign was to observe and exchange methodologies with Russian scientists with regard to the development of remote sensing techniques for the early detection and assessment of forest decline damage believed to be associated with atmospheric deposition and/or insect and disease infestations. Several types of passive and active remote sensing measurements were made in conjunction with biophysical measurements on vegetative samples collected from four study sites representing a strong elevational gradient. Relatively cloud-free SPOT data were also acquired over the study area. Moderate canopy damage was recorded at the mid-elevation site (3400 ft/1037 m). The lowest levels of damage were recorded at the lowest elevation site (2300 ft/701 m.) At all sites, east versus west flagging of the canopy was noted (i.e., full canopy on the west-facing side of the canopy, significantly less foliage on the east-facing side).

  7. Growth declines in red spruce

    SciTech Connect

    Zedaker, S.M.; Hyink, D.M.; Smith, D.W.

    1987-01-01

    Over the past two decades second-growth red spruce stands in the Northeast have demonstrated declines in radial increment. Some observers are implicating air pollution as a primary cause of the declines, based on recently acquired increment cores from dominant trees. Various forms of air pollution (O/sub 3/, NO/sub x/, SO/sub 2/, and trace metals) are known to reduce growth and development of tree species, but few studies have provided concrete evidence of regional pollution-caused declines in forest ecosystems. Recently published evidence of a synchronous, consistent, and unprecedented regional decline in red spruce should be weighed against the realization that radial increment in red spruce declines naturally as stands age. Separating anthropogenic stress-caused growth patterns from natural stand dynamics requires an in-depth knowledge of forest growth and yield, tree silvics, and forest ecosystem processes. Detailed analyses of growth by stand characteristics - site index, density, elevation, stand history - will be necessary to implicate air pollution as a primary cause of red spruce decline.

  8. World's forests

    SciTech Connect

    Sedjo, R.A.; Clawson, M.

    1982-10-01

    An appropriate rate of deforestation is complicated because forests are associated with many problems involving local economic and social needs, the global need for wood, and the environmental impact on climates and the biological genetic pool. Stable forest land exists in the developed regions of North America, Europe, the USSR, Oceania, and China in the Temperate Zone. Tropical deforestation, however, is estimated at 0.58% per year, with the pressure lowest on virgin forests. While these data omit plantation forests, the level of replacement does not offset the decline. There is some disagreement over the rate and definition of deforestation, but studies showing that the world is in little danger of running out of forests should not discourage tropical areas where forests are declining from making appropriate responses to the problem. 3 references. (DCK)

  9. NOVEL INSIGHTS INTO THE MECHANISM OF SUBCHRONIC AIR POLLUTANT-INDUCED CARDIOVASCULAR IMPAIRMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The mechanisms by which air pollutants induce cardiovascular mortality are unknown. We hypothesized that blood vessels are the target of injury by circulating oxidation by-products following pollutant exposure. We exposed male Wistar Kyoto rats (12-15 wks old), nose-only to air, ...

  10. The Aftermath of Decline.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cameron, Kim S.; Chaffee, Ellen Earle

    Differences between declining colleges and colleges not experiencing decline were investigated, along with dysfunctional organizational consequences that may be associated with decline. Attention is directed to 12 negative attributes resulting from conditions of decline, seven of which were found to be significant: no innovation, scapegoating,…

  11. Threatened and neglected forests

    SciTech Connect

    Pellicane, P.J.; Gutkowski, R.M.; Czarnock, J.

    1997-02-01

    Polands once considerable forest resource suffered destruction during World War II and is now a victim of the legacy of past forest practices, the toxic effects of industrial pollution, and the urgent needs of its people today. Polish forest are threatened by a variety of abiotic, biotic and anthropogenic factors. Extremes of climate and declining groundwater tables add to the problem. Pollution is the most serious problem, particularly air pollution. Much of the air pollution in Poland is attributable to mining and burning high-sulfur coal. Besides describing the causes of the forest decline, this article discusses solutions.

  12. Seasonal and pollution-induced variations in biomarkers of transplanted mussels within the Beagle Channel.

    PubMed

    Giarratano, Erica; Gil, Mónica N; Malanga, Gabriela

    2011-06-01

    The occurrence of biomarker variations linked to environmental factors makes it difficult to distinguish the effect of pollution. In an attempt to evaluate spatial and seasonal effects of environmental parameters on biomarker responses, mussels Mytilus edulis chilensis coming from an aquaculture farm were transplanted to several points within Ushuaia Bay (Beagle Channel) for 6 weeks in summer and winter. Activities of superoxide dismutase, catalase, glutathione-S-transferase and levels of lipid peroxidation were measured in gills and digestive gland. Cu, Zn, Fe, Cd and Pb concentrations were also assessed. Results indicated a significant effect of seasons on biological responses as well as in metal bioaccumulation showing the influence of natural factors such as dissolved oxygen, temperature and food availability. The interdependence of those environmental factors is important for the homeostasis of thermoconformers, especially regarding their oxidative metabolism and should also be taken into consideration to distinguish natural from pollution-induced variations. PMID:21550069

  13. The Aftermath of Decline.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cameron, Kim S.; And Others

    1987-01-01

    A study investigated the presence or absence of 12 attributes of declining business organizations in colleges and universities experiencing decline and found that significant differences occurred not between declining and stable organizations or those with stable or unstable budgets, but between growing and static organizations. (Author/MSE)

  14. DO ACUTE PHASE PROTEINS REFLECT SEVERITY OF INFLAMMATION IN RAT MODELS OF POLLUTANT-INDUCED LUNG INJURY?

    EPA Science Inventory

    Title: DO ACUTE PHASE PROTEINS REFLECT THE SEVERITY OF INFLAMMATION IN RAT MODELS OF POLLUTANT-INDUCED LUNG INJURY?

    M. C. Schladweiler, BS 1, P. S. Gilmour, PhD 2, D. L. Andrews, BS 1, D. L. Costa, ScD 1, A. D. Ledbetter, BS 1, K. E. Pinkerton, PhD 3 and U. P. Kodavanti, ...

  15. Modeling the forest transition: forest scarcity and ecosystem service hypotheses.

    PubMed

    Satake, Akiko; Rudel, Thomas K

    2007-10-01

    An historical generalization about forest cover change in which rapid deforestation gives way over time to forest restoration is called "the forest transition." Prior research on the forest transition leaves three important questions unanswered: (1) How does forest loss influence an individual landowner's incentives to reforest? (2) How does the forest recovery rate affect the likelihood of forest transition? (3) What happens after the forest transition occurs? The purpose of this paper is to develop a minimum model of the forest transition to answer these questions. We assume that deforestation caused by landowners' decisions and forest regeneration initiated by agricultural abandonment have aggregated effects that characterize entire landscapes. These effects include feedback mechanisms called the "forest scarcity" and "ecosystem service" hypotheses. In the forest scarcity hypothesis, forest losses make forest products scarcer, which increases the economic value of forests. In the ecosystem service hypothesis, the environmental degradation that accompanies the loss of forests causes the value of ecosystem services provided by forests to decline. We examined the impact of each mechanism on the likelihood of forest transition through an investigation of the equilibrium and stability of landscape dynamics. We found that the forest transition occurs only when landowners employ a low rate of future discounting. After the forest transition, regenerated forests are protected in a sustainable way if forests regenerate slowly. When forests regenerate rapidly, the forest scarcity hypothesis expects instability in which cycles of large-scale deforestation followed by forest regeneration repeatedly characterize the landscape. In contrast, the ecosystem service hypothesis predicts a catastrophic shift from a forested to an abandoned landscape when the amount of deforestation exceeds the critical level, which can lead to a resource degrading poverty trap. These findings imply

  16. Global Forest Area Trends Underestimate Threats from Forest Fragmentation

    EPA Science Inventory

    Forest loss and fragmentation of the remainder threaten the ecological attributes and functions which depend upon forests1. Forest interior area is particularly valued because it is relatively remote from human influence2, 3, 4, 5. Recent global assessments report declines in t...

  17. Pollution-Induced Community Tolerance To Diagnose Hazardous Chemicals in Multiple Contaminated Aquatic Systems.

    PubMed

    Rotter, Stefanie; Gunold, Roman; Mothes, Sibylle; Paschke, Albrecht; Brack, Werner; Altenburger, Rolf; Schmitt-Jansen, Mechthild

    2015-08-18

    Aquatic ecosystems are often contaminated with large numbers of chemicals, which cannot be sufficiently addressed by chemical target analyses. Effect-directed analysis (EDA) enables the identification of toxicants in complex contaminated environmental samples. This study suggests pollution-induced community tolerance (PICT) as a confirmation tool for EDA to identify contaminants which actually impact on local communities. The effects of three phytotoxic compounds local periphyton communities, cultivated at a reference (R-site) and a polluted site (P-site), were assessed to confirm the findings of a former EDA study on sediments. The sensitivities of R- and P-communities to prometryn, tributyltin (TBT) and N-phenyl-2-naphthylamine (PNA) were quantified in short-term toxicity tests and exposure concentrations were determined. Prometryn and PNA concentrations were significantly higher at the P-site, whereas TBT concentrations were in the same range at both sites. Periphyton communities differed in biomass, but algal class composition and diatom diversity were similar. Community tolerance of P-communities was significantly enhanced for prometryn, but not for PNA and TBT, confirming site-specific effects on local periphyton for prometryn only. Thus, PICT enables in situ effect confirmation of phytotoxic compounds at the community level and seems to be suitable to support confirmation and enhance ecological realism of EDA. PMID:26196040

  18. Declining Enrollment Conference Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Arizona State Dept. of Education, Phoenix.

    This report summarizes the results of a conference on declining enrollment sponsored by the Arizona State Department of Education. Topics covered include school closing, budget implications of declining enrollment, staffing problems and reduction in force, board of education and community support, problems of small school districts, and…

  19. Facilities and Declining Enrollment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Illinois State Office of Education, Springfield. Dept. of Planning, Research and Evaluation.

    The results of a survey of 55 Illinois school districts which had experienced declining enrollment and surplus school space are reported in this paper. All 55 districts had closed at least one school as a result of enrollment decline, resulting in a total of 89 school closures. The two most important criteria for selecting the schools to be closed…

  20. Watermelon Vine Declines

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    A number of diseases have been identified that cause the wilt, collapse and general decline of watermelon plants. These diseases occur in watermelon growing areas around the world and are generically referred to as vine declines. In the 1990’s, Monosporascus root rot was identified as a disease of...

  1. Coping with Decline

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boulding, Kenneth

    1977-01-01

    A quantitative decline is predicted because of the leveling off of industrial production and exhaustion of resources. Coping with these conditions requires flexibility and adaptability. Delusions of certainty zero in on catastrophe. (Author/MLF)

  2. DECLINE OF MONTANE BOREAL ECOSYSTEMS IN CENTRAL EUROPE AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS

    EPA Science Inventory

    For more than a decade scientists from Western Europe and New England have documented an insidious dieback and/or decline of certain forest types, in particular high-altitude coniferous forests. Silver fir and Norway spruce are undergoing a severe decline in Hartz Mts., Black Mts...

  3. Urban Decline and Durable Housing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Glaeser, Edward L.; Gyourko, Joseph

    2005-01-01

    Urban decline is not the mirror image of growth, and durable housing is the primary reason the nature of decline is so different. This paper presents a model of urban decline with durable housing and verifies these implications of the model: (1) city growth rates are skewed so that cities grow more quickly than they decline; (2) urban decline is…

  4. Forest health and global change.

    PubMed

    Trumbore, S; Brando, P; Hartmann, H

    2015-08-21

    Humans rely on healthy forests to supply energy, building materials, and food and to provide services such as storing carbon, hosting biodiversity, and regulating climate. Defining forest health integrates utilitarian and ecosystem measures of forest condition and function, implemented across a range of spatial scales. Although native forests are adapted to some level of disturbance, all forests now face novel stresses in the form of climate change, air pollution, and invasive pests. Detecting how intensification of these stresses will affect the trajectory of forests is a major scientific challenge that requires developing systems to assess the health of global forests. It is particularly critical to identify thresholds for rapid forest decline, because it can take many decades for forests to restore the services that they provide. PMID:26293952

  5. Is America in Decline?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Prowse, Michael

    1992-01-01

    Rather than decline, the issues are increased equality among industrialized nations, increased U.S. social inequality, and social implications of the new economy. The best way to tackle growing social inequality is by reshaping education to give workers the skills needed for this new economy. (JOW)

  6. Fraternities in Decline.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reisberg, Leo

    2000-01-01

    Reports on a decline in fraternity membership, which is ascribed to changing demographics, bad publicity about alcohol abuse and hazing incidents, and changing student values. Graphs illustrate fraternity membership trends at six universities, including 10-year comparisons in membership, academic performance, and pledges; and average number of men…

  7. Declining Resources, Targeted Strategies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levenson, Nathan

    2011-01-01

    As resources shrink, the need to do more with less becomes critical. As a business CEO turned superintendent, this author has seen firsthand that many options exist, but none are fun, easy, or politically rewarding. He contends that the challenge of managing declining resources is not the choice between doing less for children or discovering new…

  8. Rising Above Decline.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wachtel, Betsy; Powers, Brian

    This volume attempts to document ways in which several communities have dealt with the problems of declining school enrollments. Each case study outlines some type of public participation in the task of adjusting to population changes and fiscal pressures. The first chapter supplies an introductory overview of issues related to declining…

  9. Widespread decline of Congo rainforest greenness in the past decade.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Liming; Tian, Yuhong; Myneni, Ranga B; Ciais, Philippe; Saatchi, Sassan; Liu, Yi Y; Piao, Shilong; Chen, Haishan; Vermote, Eric F; Song, Conghe; Hwang, Taehee

    2014-05-01

    Tropical forests are global epicentres of biodiversity and important modulators of climate change, and are mainly constrained by rainfall patterns. The severe short-term droughts that occurred recently in Amazonia have drawn attention to the vulnerability of tropical forests to climatic disturbances. The central African rainforests, the second-largest on Earth, have experienced a long-term drying trend whose impacts on vegetation dynamics remain mostly unknown because in situ observations are very limited. The Congolese forest, with its drier conditions and higher percentage of semi-evergreen trees, may be more tolerant to short-term rainfall reduction than are wetter tropical forests, but for a long-term drought there may be critical thresholds of water availability below which higher-biomass, closed-canopy forests transition to more open, lower-biomass forests. Here we present observational evidence for a widespread decline in forest greenness over the past decade based on analyses of satellite data (optical, thermal, microwave and gravity) from several independent sensors over the Congo basin. This decline in vegetation greenness, particularly in the northern Congolese forest, is generally consistent with decreases in rainfall, terrestrial water storage, water content in aboveground woody and leaf biomass, and the canopy backscatter anomaly caused by changes in structure and moisture in upper forest layers. It is also consistent with increases in photosynthetically active radiation and land surface temperature. These multiple lines of evidence indicate that this large-scale vegetation browning, or loss of photosynthetic capacity, may be partially attributable to the long-term drying trend. Our results suggest that a continued gradual decline of photosynthetic capacity and moisture content driven by the persistent drying trend could alter the composition and structure of the Congolese forest to favour the spread of drought-tolerant species. PMID:24759324

  10. Decline of red spruce in the Adirondacks, New York

    SciTech Connect

    Scott, J.T.; Siccama, T.G.; Johnson, A.H.; Breisch, A.R.

    1984-01-01

    Thirty-two stands in the spruce-fir forests of Whiteface Mountain in the Adirondacks, originally sampled from 1964-66, were resurveyed in 1982. From 10-25 Bitterlich points were used in each stand in 1982 to obtain an estimate of basal area per hectare. Data were summarized for low elevation (<900m) and high elevation (> or = 900m) forests. Red spruce declined by 40-60% in basal area for the low elevation forests and by 60-70% above 900m. Balsam fir decreased by 35% at high elevations, due to natural disturbance in several of the stands, but was unchanged when only undisturbed stands were considered. The decline of red spruce accounted for about three quarters of the total decrease in basal area for both the high- and low-elevation forests. Spruce seedling frequency for the high-elevation sample decreased by 80%, but was unchanged below 900m. The pattern of spruce decline in the Adirondacks is similar to findings for New England. The cause of the decline is speculative at the time.

  11. Air pollutants effects on forest ecosystems

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1985-01-01

    This book presents the papers given at a conference on the effects of acid rain on forests. The conference was sponsored by the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP). Topics considered at the conference included the status of US research on acid deposition and its effects contributing factors to the decline of forests, evidence for effects on ecosystems, the effects of air pollutants on forest ecosystems in North America and Europe, forest management, and future scientific research programs and management approaches.

  12. USE OF REPEATED BRONCHOALVEOLAR LAVAGE IN RABBITS TO ASSESS POLLUTANT-INDUCED LUNG CHANGES IN AN ANIMAL MODEL OF CARDIOVASCULAR (CV) DISEASE.

    EPA Science Inventory

    Animal models of coronary heart disease (e.g., hyperlipidemic rabbits) are being used to investigate epidemiologic associations between higher levels of air pollution and adverse CV consequences. Mechanisms by which pollutant-induced lung or systemic inflammation leads to acute C...

  13. [Major features of decline of Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica plantation on sandy land].

    PubMed

    Wu, Xiangyun; Jiang, Fengqi; Li, Xiaodan; Xue, Yang; Qiu, Sufen

    2004-12-01

    In view of the decline of man-made sand-fixation forest of Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica in Zhanggutai sand land of Liaoning Province, this paper studied the major characteristics of the decline. The appearance of the declining man-made sand-fixation forest of Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica was grey green, its needle leaf was very thin, the blooming and fruiting rate was low, the average quantity of cones per tree was only 10.4-16.5, with only 6.96 g to 7.39 g per thousand seeds, and there were many empty and astringent seeds. The seasonal dynamics of nutrients in 2-year-old pine needle leaf was similar, i.e., the N and P contents decreased, while K content increased, showing that the nutrient cycle was imbalance. The chlorophyll content in 2-year-old needle leaf of declined forest was high, while that in 1-year-old healthy forest was also high but with a wide increasing range. The infected harm of shoot blight was the clearest mark to the decline of man-made sand-fixation forest of Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica. After the forest declined, the height and the DBH of the pine trees decreased evidently, and the structure of DBH distribution moved "left". The quantity of weak pine trees increased by 15.9%-27.2%, the roots decreased by 22.9%-28.9%, and the absorbing roots (diameter < 0.5 cm) decreased most seriously. PMID:15825430

  14. Climate and Management Controls on Forest Growth and Forest Carbon Balance in the Western United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kelsey, Katharine Cashman

    Climate change is resulting in a number of rapid changes in forests worldwide. Forests comprise a critical component of the global carbon cycle, and therefore climate-induced changes in forest carbon balance have the potential to create a feedback within the global carbon cycle and affect future trajectories of climate change. In order to further understanding of climate-driven changes in forest carbon balance, I (1) develop a method to improve spatial estimates forest carbon stocks, (2) investigate the effect of climate change and forest management actions on forest recovery and carbon balance following disturbance, and (3) explore the relationship between climate and forest growth, and identify climate-driven trends in forest growth through time, within San Juan National Forest in southwest Colorado, USA. I find that forest carbon estimates based on texture analysis from LandsatTM imagery improve regional forest carbon maps, and this method is particularly useful for estimating carbon stocks in forested regions affected by disturbance. Forest recovery from disturbance is also a critical component of future forest carbon stocks, and my results indicate that both climate and forest management actions have important implications for forest recovery and carbon dynamics following disturbance. Specifically, forest treatments that use woody biomass removed from the forest for electricity production can reduce carbon emissions to the atmosphere, but climate driven changes in fire severity and forest recovery can have the opposite effect on forest carbon stocks. In addition to the effects of disturbance and recovery on forest condition, I also find that climate change is decreasing rates of forest growth in some species, likely in response to warming summer temperatures. These growth declines could result in changes of vegetation composition, or in extreme cases, a shift in vegetation type that would alter forest carbon storage. This work provides insight into both

  15. Forest Management.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weicherding, Patrick J.; And Others

    This bulletin deals with forest management and provides an overview of forestry for the non-professional. The bulletin is divided into six sections: (1) What Is Forestry Management?; (2) How Is the Forest Measured?; (3) What Is Forest Protection?; (4) How Is the Forest Harvested?; (5) What Is Forest Regeneration?; and (6) What Is Forest…

  16. Forest pathology in Hawaii

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gardner, D.E.

    2003-01-01

    Native Hawaiian forests are characterised by a high degree of endemism, including pathogens as well as their hosts. With the exceptions of koa (Acacia koa Gray), possibly maile (Alyxia oliviformis Gaud.), and, in the past, sandalwood (Santalum spp.), forest species are of little commercial value. On the other hand, these forests are immensely important from a cultural, ecological, and evolutionary standpoint. Forest disease research was lacking during the mid-twentieth century, but increased markedly with the recognition of ohia (Metrosideros polymorpha Gaud.) decline in the 1970s. Because many pathogens are themselves endemic, or are assumed to be, having evolved with their hosts, research emphasis in natural areas is on understanding host-parasite interactions and evolutionary influences, rather than disease control. Aside from management of native forests, attempts at establishing a commercial forest industry have included importation of several species of pine, Araucaria, and Eucalyptus as timber crops, and of numerous ornamentals. Diseases of these species have been introduced with their hosts. The attacking of native species by introduced pathogens is problematic - for example, Armillaria mellea (Vahl ex Fr.) Que??l. on koa and mamane (Sophora chrysophylla (Salisb.) Seem.). Much work remains to be done in both native and commercial aspects of Hawaiian forest pathology.

  17. Pollution-induced community tolerance of freshwater biofilms: measuring heterotrophic tolerance to Pb using an enzymatic toxicity test.

    PubMed

    Fechner, Lise C; Dufour, Marine; Gourlay-Francé, Catherine

    2012-11-01

    This study aims at investigating the impacts of Pb on freshwater biofilms with a pollution-induced community tolerance (PICT) approach using a recently developed short-term toxicity test based on β-glucosidase activity to measure biofilms' tolerance to Pb. We first investigated more closely the influence of the total suspended solids (TSS) concentrations of biofilm suspensions used for short-term toxicity tests performed to assess Pb tolerance. The Pb EC(50) values of four dilutions of the same biofilm suspension increased with their TSS concentrations. TSS-normalization allowed to obtain a unique measure of Pb tolerance, thus confirming that TSS-normalization of EC(50) values is a good means to estimate biofilm tolerance to Pb. The experiment was repeated with three different biofilm samples collected at different sites and dates. Second, biofilms were exposed to Pb (0, 1, 10 and 100 μg/L) for 3 weeks in microcosms to assess the impacts of Pb exposure on the communities. An increase in Pb tolerance was observed for the biofilm exposed to 100 μg/L. Automated Ribosomal Intergenic Spacer Analysis revealed modifications of bacterial and eukaryotic community structure with Pb exposure. Moreover, exposure to 100 μg/L Pb also led to an increase in Zn tolerance but not Cu tolerance. This study shows that tolerance acquisition to Pb can be detected after exposure to environmental concentrations of Pb using a PICT methodology and normalized EC(50) values as measures of Pb tolerance. PMID:22729786

  18. Microglial priming through the lung-brain axis: the role of air pollution-induced circulating factors.

    PubMed

    Mumaw, Christen L; Levesque, Shannon; McGraw, Constance; Robertson, Sarah; Lucas, Selita; Stafflinger, Jillian E; Campen, Matthew J; Hall, Pamela; Norenberg, Jeffrey P; Anderson, Tamara; Lund, Amie K; McDonald, Jacob D; Ottens, Andrew K; Block, Michelle L

    2016-05-01

    Air pollution is implicated in neurodegenerative disease risk and progression and in microglial activation, but the mechanisms are unknown. In this study, microglia remained activated 24 h after ozone (O3) exposure in rats, suggesting a persistent signal from lung to brain. Ex vivo analysis of serum from O3-treated rats revealed an augmented microglial proinflammatory response and β-amyloid 42 (Aβ42) neurotoxicity independent of traditional circulating cytokines, where macrophage-1 antigen-mediated microglia proinflammatory priming. Aged mice exhibited reduced pulmonary immune profiles and the most pronounced neuroinflammation and microglial activation in response to mixed vehicle emissions. Consistent with this premise, cluster of differentiation 36 (CD36)(-/-) mice exhibited impaired pulmonary immune responses concurrent with augmented neuroinflammation and microglial activation in response to O3 Further, aging glia were more sensitive to the proinflammatory effects of O3 serum. Together, these findings outline the lung-brain axis, where air pollutant exposures result in circulating, cytokine-independent signals present in serum that elevate the brain proinflammatory milieu, which is linked to the pulmonary response and is further augmented with age.-Mumaw, C. L., Levesque, S., McGraw, C., Robertson, S., Lucas, S., Stafflinger, J. E., Campen, M. J., Hall, P., Norenberg, J. P., Anderson, T., Lund, A. K., McDonald, J. D., Ottens, A. K., Block, M. L. Microglial priming through the lung-brain axis: the role of air pollution-induced circulating factors. PMID:26864854

  19. Use of the MicroResp™ method to assess pollution-induced community tolerance to metals for lotic biofilms.

    PubMed

    Tlili, Ahmed; Marechal, Marjorie; Montuelle, Bernard; Volat, Bernadette; Dorigo, Ursula; Bérard, Annette

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the ecological status of aquatic ecosystems and the impact of anthropogenic contamination requires correlating exposure to toxicants with impact on biological communities. Several tools exist for assessing the ecotoxicity of substances, but there is still a need for new tools that are ecologically relevant and easy to use. We have developed a protocol based on the substrate-induced respiration of a river biofilm community, using the MicroResp™ technique, in a pollution-induced community tolerance approach. The results show that MicroResp™ can be used in bioassays to assess the toxicity toward biofilm communities of a wide range of metals (Cu, Zn, Cd, Ag, Ni, Fe, Co, Al and As). Moreover, a community-level physiological profile based on the mineralization of different carbon substrates was established. Finally, the utility of MicroResp™ was confirmed in an in-situ study showing gradient of tolerance to copper correlated to a contamination gradient of this metal in a small river. PMID:20961674

  20. Culturable bacterial populations associated with ectomycorrhizae of Norway spruce stands with different degrees of decline in the Czech Republic.

    PubMed

    Avidano, Lorena; Rinaldi, Maurizio; Gindro, Roberto; Cudlín, Pavel; Martinotti, Maria Giovanna; Fracchia, Letizia

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this study was to determine which species of culturable bacteria are associated with ectomycorrhizae (ECM) of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst) in the Sudety Mountains, exposed for years to atmospheric pollutants, acid rain, and climatic stress, and to identify particular species that have adapted to those conditions. Biolog identification was performed on bacterial species from ECM of adult spruce trees and seedlings of stands with low, intermediate, and high forest decline. Bacterial diversity in ECM associated with adult spruce trees, seedlings, and seedlings grown on monoliths was calculated; although the expected values appeared to vary widely, no significant differences among sites were observed. Dendrograms based on the identified bacterial species showed that stands with low forest decline clustered separately from the others. Principal component analysis of the normalized data for ECM-associated species showed a clear separation between stands with high forest decline and stands with low forest decline for seedlings and a less evident separation for adult spruce trees. In conclusion, shifts in ECM-associated culturable bacterial populations seem to be associated with forest decline in Norway spruce stands. Some bacterial species were preferentially associated with mycorrhizal roots depending on the degree of forest decline; this was more evident in seedlings where the species Burkholderia cepacia and Pseudomonas fluorescens were associated with, respectively, ECM of the most damaged stands and those with low forest decline. PMID:20130694

  1. Global biodiversity: indicators of recent declines.

    PubMed

    Butchart, Stuart H M; Walpole, Matt; Collen, Ben; van Strien, Arco; Scharlemann, Jörn P W; Almond, Rosamunde E A; Baillie, Jonathan E M; Bomhard, Bastian; Brown, Claire; Bruno, John; Carpenter, Kent E; Carr, Geneviève M; Chanson, Janice; Chenery, Anna M; Csirke, Jorge; Davidson, Nick C; Dentener, Frank; Foster, Matt; Galli, Alessandro; Galloway, James N; Genovesi, Piero; Gregory, Richard D; Hockings, Marc; Kapos, Valerie; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Leverington, Fiona; Loh, Jonathan; McGeoch, Melodie A; McRae, Louise; Minasyan, Anahit; Hernández Morcillo, Monica; Oldfield, Thomasina E E; Pauly, Daniel; Quader, Suhel; Revenga, Carmen; Sauer, John R; Skolnik, Benjamin; Spear, Dian; Stanwell-Smith, Damon; Stuart, Simon N; Symes, Andy; Tierney, Megan; Tyrrell, Tristan D; Vié, Jean-Christophe; Watson, Reg

    2010-05-28

    In 2002, world leaders committed, through the Convention on Biological Diversity, to achieve a significant reduction in the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010. We compiled 31 indicators to report on progress toward this target. Most indicators of the state of biodiversity (covering species' population trends, extinction risk, habitat extent and condition, and community composition) showed declines, with no significant recent reductions in rate, whereas indicators of pressures on biodiversity (including resource consumption, invasive alien species, nitrogen pollution, overexploitation, and climate change impacts) showed increases. Despite some local successes and increasing responses (including extent and biodiversity coverage of protected areas, sustainable forest management, policy responses to invasive alien species, and biodiversity-related aid), the rate of biodiversity loss does not appear to be slowing. PMID:20430971

  2. Global biodiversity: indicators of recent declines

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Butchart, Stuart H.M.; Walpole, Matt; Collen, Ben; Van Strien, Arco; Scharlemann, Jorn P.W.; Almond, Rosamunde E.A.; Baillie, Jonathan E.M.; Bomhard, Bastian; Brown, Claire; Bruno, John; Carpenter, Kent E.; Carr, Genevieve M.; Chanson, Janice; Chenery, Anna M.; Csirke, Jorge; Davidson, Nick C.; Dentener, Frank; Foster, Matt; Galli, Alessandro; Galloway, James N.; Genovesi, Piero; Gregory, Richard D.; Hockings, Marc; Kapos, Valerie; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Leverington, Fiona; Loh, Jonathan; McGeoch, Melodie A.; McRae, Louise; Minasyan, Anahit; Morcillo, Monica Hernandez; Oldfield, Thomasina E.E.; Pauly, Daniel; Quader, Suhel; Revenga, Carmen; Sauer, John R.; Skolnik, Benjamin; Spear, Dian; Stanwell-Smith, Damon; Stuart, Simon N.; Symes, Andy; Tierney, Megan; Tyrrell, Tristan D.; Vie, Jean-Christophe; Watson, Reg

    2011-01-01

    In 2002, world leaders committed, through the Convention on Biological Diversity, to achieve a significant reduction in the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010. We compiled 31 indicators to report on progress toward this target. Most indicators of the state of biodiversity (covering species' population trends, extinction risk, habitat extent and condition, and community composition) showed declines, with no significant recent reductions in rate, whereas indicators of pressures on biodiversity (including resource consumption, invasive alien species, nitrogen pollution, overexploitation, and climate change impacts) showed increases. Despite some local successes and increasing responses (including extent and biodiversity coverage of protected areas, sustainable forest management, policy responses to invasive alien species, and biodiversity-related aid), the rate of biodiversity loss does not appear to be slowing.

  3. Terminal decline in motor function.

    PubMed

    Wilson, Robert S; Segawa, Eisuke; Buchman, Aron S; Boyle, Patricia A; Hizel, Loren P; Bennett, David A

    2012-12-01

    The study aim was to test the hypothesis that motor function undergoes accelerated decline proximate to death. As part of a longitudinal clinical-pathologic study, 124 older Roman Catholic nuns, priests, and monks completed at least 7 annual clinical evaluations, died, and underwent brain autopsy and uniform neuropathologic examination. Each evaluation included administration of 11 motor tests and 19 cognitive tests from which global measures of motor and cognitive function were derived. The global motor measure (baseline M = 0.82, SD = 0.21) declined a mean 0.024 unit per year (95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.032, -0.016) until a mean of 2.46 years (95% CI: -2.870, -2.108) before death when rate of decline increased nearly fivefold to -0.117 unit per year (95% CI: -0.140, -0.097). The global cognitive measure (baseline M = 0.07, SD = 0.45) declined a mean of 0.027-unit per year (95% CI: -0.041, -0.014) until a mean of 2.76 years (95% CI: -3.157, -2.372) before death when rate of decline increased more than 13-fold to -0.371 unit per year (95% CI: -0.443, -0.306). Onset of terminal motor decline was highly correlated with onset of terminal cognitive decline (r = .94, 95% CI: 0.81, 0.99), but rates of motor and cognitive change were not strongly correlated (preterminal r = .20, 95% CI: -0.05, 0.38; terminal r = .34, 95% CI: 0.03, 0.62). Higher level of plaques and tangles was associated with earlier onset of terminal decline in motor function, but no pathologic measures were associated with rate of preterminal or terminal motor decline. The results demonstrate that motor and cognitive functions both undergo a period of accelerated decline in the last few years of life. PMID:22612603

  4. Population declines in North American birds that migrate to the neotropics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robbins, C.S.; Sauer, J.R.; Greenberg, R.S.; Droege, S.

    1989-01-01

    Using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, we determined that most neotropical migrant bird species that breed in forests of the eastern United States and Canada have recently (1978-1987) declined in abundance after a period of stable or increasing populations. Most permanent residents and temperate-zone migrants did not show a general pattern of decrease during this period. Field data from Mexico were used to classify a subset of the neotropical migrants as using forest or scrub habitats during winter. Population declines during 1978-1987 were significantly greater among the forest-wintering species, while populations of scrub-wintering species increased. The same subset of neotropical migrants also showed overall declines in forest-breeding species, but no significant differences existed between species breeding in forest and scrub habitats. Neotropical migrant species that primarily use forested habitats in either wintering or breeding areas are declining, but a statistically significant association between habitat and population declines was detected only in the tropics.

  5. Catastrophic ape decline in western equatorial Africa.

    PubMed

    Walsh, Peter D; Abernethy, Kate A; Bermejo, Magdalena; Beyers, Rene; De Wachter, Pauwel; Akou, Marc Ella; Huijbregts, Bas; Mambounga, Daniel Idiata; Toham, Andre Kamdem; Kilbourn, Annelisa M; Lahm, Sally A; Latour, Stefanie; Maisels, Fiona; Mbina, Christian; Mihindou, Yves; Obiang, Sosthène Ndong; Effa, Ernestine Ntsame; Starkey, Malcolm P; Telfer, Paul; Thibault, Marc; Tutin, Caroline E G; White, Lee J T; Wilkie, David S

    2003-04-10

    Because rapidly expanding human populations have devastated gorilla (Gorilla gorilla) and common chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes) habitats in East and West Africa, the relatively intact forests of western equatorial Africa have been viewed as the last stronghold of African apes. Gabon and the Republic of Congo alone are thought to hold roughly 80% of the world's gorillas and most of the common chimpanzees. Here we present survey results conservatively indicating that ape populations in Gabon declined by more than half between 1983 and 2000. The primary cause of the decline in ape numbers during this period was commercial hunting, facilitated by the rapid expansion of mechanized logging. Furthermore, Ebola haemorrhagic fever is currently spreading through ape populations in Gabon and Congo and now rivals hunting as a threat to apes. Gorillas and common chimpanzees should be elevated immediately to 'critically endangered' status. Without aggressive investments in law enforcement, protected area management and Ebola prevention, the next decade will see our closest relatives pushed to the brink of extinction. PMID:12679788

  6. Intraguild predation and native lady beetle decline.

    PubMed

    Gardiner, Mary M; O'Neal, Matthew E; Landis, Douglas A

    2011-01-01

    Coccinellid communities across North America have experienced significant changes in recent decades, with declines in several native species reported. One potential mechanism for these declines is interference competition via intraguild predation; specifically, increased predation of native coccinellid eggs and larvae following the introduction of exotic coccinellids. Our previous studies have shown that agricultural fields in Michigan support a higher diversity and abundance of exotic coccinellids than similar fields in Iowa, and that the landscape surrounding agricultural fields across the north central U.S. influences the abundance and activity of coccinellid species. The goal of this study was to quantify the amount of egg predation experienced by a native coccinellid within Michigan and Iowa soybean fields and explore the influence of local and large-scale landscape structure. Using the native lady beetle Coleomegilla maculata as a model, we found that sentinel egg masses were subject to intense predation within both Michigan and Iowa soybean fields, with 60.7% of egg masses attacked and 43.0% of available eggs consumed within 48 h. In Michigan, the exotic coccinellids Coccinella septempunctata and Harmonia axyridis were the most abundant predators found in soybean fields whereas in Iowa, native species including C. maculata, Hippodamia parenthesis and the soft-winged flower beetle Collops nigriceps dominated the predator community. Predator abundance was greater in soybean fields within diverse landscapes, yet variation in predator numbers did not influence the intensity of egg predation observed. In contrast, the strongest predictor of native coccinellid egg predation was the composition of edge habitats bordering specific fields. Field sites surrounded by semi-natural habitats including forests, restored prairies, old fields, and pasturelands experienced greater egg predation than fields surrounded by other croplands. This study shows that intraguild

  7. Intraguild Predation and Native Lady Beetle Decline

    PubMed Central

    Gardiner, Mary M.; O'Neal, Matthew E.; Landis, Douglas A.

    2011-01-01

    Coccinellid communities across North America have experienced significant changes in recent decades, with declines in several native species reported. One potential mechanism for these declines is interference competition via intraguild predation; specifically, increased predation of native coccinellid eggs and larvae following the introduction of exotic coccinellids. Our previous studies have shown that agricultural fields in Michigan support a higher diversity and abundance of exotic coccinellids than similar fields in Iowa, and that the landscape surrounding agricultural fields across the north central U.S. influences the abundance and activity of coccinellid species. The goal of this study was to quantify the amount of egg predation experienced by a native coccinellid within Michigan and Iowa soybean fields and explore the influence of local and large-scale landscape structure. Using the native lady beetle Coleomegilla maculata as a model, we found that sentinel egg masses were subject to intense predation within both Michigan and Iowa soybean fields, with 60.7% of egg masses attacked and 43.0% of available eggs consumed within 48 h. In Michigan, the exotic coccinellids Coccinella septempunctata and Harmonia axyridis were the most abundant predators found in soybean fields whereas in Iowa, native species including C. maculata, Hippodamia parenthesis and the soft-winged flower beetle Collops nigriceps dominated the predator community. Predator abundance was greater in soybean fields within diverse landscapes, yet variation in predator numbers did not influence the intensity of egg predation observed. In contrast, the strongest predictor of native coccinellid egg predation was the composition of edge habitats bordering specific fields. Field sites surrounded by semi-natural habitats including forests, restored prairies, old fields, and pasturelands experienced greater egg predation than fields surrounded by other croplands. This study shows that intraguild

  8. Growth declines in red spruce

    SciTech Connect

    McLaughlin, S.B. ); Adams, H.S. )

    1987-10-01

    In this letter, the authors take issue with Zedaker, Hyink, and Smith who have indicated that observed red spruce growth declines can be expected based on growth trends for even-aged stands of red spruce as documented in Meyer (1929). Recently, an examination was made of stand stocking levels at 750 sites where red spruce were cored and neither the rate of growth decline nor the extent of mortality were found to be related to stand stocking levels or previous disturbance history. The authors conclude that the Meyer data do not represent an appropriate model for stand dynamics of old-growth, high-elevation stands and no not adequately explain the growth declines observed at many of those sites.

  9. Clonal xenobiotic resistance during pollution-induced toxic injury and hepatocellular carcinogenesis in liver of female flounder (Platichthys flesus (L.)).

    PubMed

    Koehler, Angela; Alpermann, Tilmann; Lauritzen, Bjarne; Van Noorden, Cornelis J F

    2004-01-01

    Juvenile and adult female flounder (Platichthys flesus (L.)) were caught either in the estuary of the most polluted European river, the Elbe, or as controls in a reference site to study pollution-induced xenobiotic resistance in their livers in relation to pathological alterations. In juvenile fish, livers displayed reversible and irreversible degenerative toxipathic lesion types but never showed (pre)neoplastic changes. Tumour frequencies up to 70% were found macroscopically in livers of adult female flounder which had progressed to adenomas and carcinomas in the most polluted site. Because male adult flounder show only up to 50% of livers containing early preneoplastic foci but never malignancies, we focussed our study on female individuals. (Pre)neoplastic changes ranged from early eosinophilic foci to basophilic foci, adenomas and hepatocellular carcinomas. Adenomas were generally eosinophilic whereas carcinomas were mainly basophilic. These phenotypical sequential changes strongly resemble those found in chemically-induced liver carcinogenesis in mammals. Characteristic mutations known from mammalian cancers have not been found so far in these flounder livers. Therefore, we investigated whether epigenetic events had induced a metabolic "resistant phenotype" of (pre)malignant cancer cells during hepatocellular carcinogenesis. With a quantitative immunohistochemical approach, we studied expression of P-glycoprotein (P-gp)-mediated multixenobiotic resistance (MXR), cytochrome P4501A1, glutathione-S-transferase-A which are key proteins in xenobiotic metabolism and elimination. Glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PDH) activity, the major source of the reducing power NADPH which is needed for biotransformation, oxyradical scavenging and biosynthesis, was detected as well. We observed upregulation of G6PDH activity already in early preneoplastic eosinophilic foci and subsequent further upregulation in basophilic foci and carcinomas. P-gp started to become

  10. 75 FR 32738 - Gallatin National Forest-Hebgen Lake Ranger District; MT; Lonesome Wood Vegetation Management...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-06-09

    ...This integrated forest vegetation management project is designed to achieve the goals of increased firefighter and public safety, reduced wildland fire risks to adjacent property and Forest Service infrastructure, and to enhance aspen forest communities that are in decline. Proposed forest thinning and associated activities target the removal of excessive surface, ladder and crown fuel. This......

  11. Shrinking tropical forests, human agents of change, and conservation policy.

    PubMed

    Rudel, Thomas K

    2006-12-01

    Human agents of landscape transformation in the tropics affect forests differently as the forests decline in size. Five agents of change--road builders, corporate concession holders, community forest managers, park advocates, and urban consumers--have different effects on large forests in remote tropical regions than they do on remnant forests in settled agricultural regions. Because forests vary so much in size across tropical regions, these differences in the effects of agents on forests have important implications for regional conservation efforts. To make these implications explicit, I compared the effects of the five agents in regions with large forests with their effects in regions with small forests. The comparisons indicated that, as forests declined in size, new roads no longer destroyed forests, corporate loggers left the forests, community forest managers became more effective, parks became less feasible as a means of conservation, and urban consumers initiated tree planting. My results suggest that awareness about the changing effects of humans on landscapes with shrinking forests can serve as a useful tool in formulating regionally appropriate policies for conserving tropical forests. PMID:17181795

  12. Back to the forest: exploring forest transitions in Candelaria Loxicha, Mexico.

    PubMed

    Aguilar-Støen, Mariel; Angelsen, Arild; Moe, Stein R

    2011-01-01

    Declining profitability of agriculture and/or higher prices of forest products and services typically drive an increase in forest cover. This article examines changes in forest cover in Candelaria Loxicha, Mexico. Forest cover increased in the area as a result of coffee cultivation in coffee forest-garden systems. Dependence on forest products and services, and not prices of forest products, drive the process in our study site. Low international coffee prices and high labor demand outside the community might pull farmers out of agriculture, but they do not completely abandon the lands. A diversification in income sources prevents land abandonment and contributes to maintaining rural populations and coffee forest gardens. PMID:21751476

  13. Predicting Succession under Conditions of Enrollment Decline.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Berger, Michael A.

    1984-01-01

    Using 56 school districts that experienced enrollment declines, this study describes the variables in superintendent succession amidst declining enrollments and locates the strongest predictors of succession. (JW)

  14. American Higher Education in Decline.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ashworth, Kenneth H.

    The decline in the quality of American higher education over the past several decades and the ramifications of this phenomena are discussed in this book. It is suggested that in responding to modern egalitarianism and the need to attract students, colleges and universities have initiated innovative programs, noncampuses, and nontraditional degrees…

  15. Environmental Decline and Organizational Response.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zammuto, Raymond F.; Cameron, Kim S.

    1985-01-01

    A management model uses a population perspective that examines types of change occurring in the environment of populations of organizations and results in four kinds of decline (erosion, contraction, dissolution, and collapse). It is used to explain several population-related organizational phenomena. (MSE)

  16. Health of North American forests: Stress and risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, W.H. )

    1990-01-01

    The 1980s will be remembered by forest professionals as a decade of intense and widespread societal concern for the vitality and integrity of forest systems. Daily reports of tropical deforestation and temperate forest decline have heightened social consciousness of forest health. It is therefore appropriate, as we enter the 1990s, to assess the health of our forests and propose new initiatives in this critically important area. Making generalizations about the health of North American forests is difficult because of the extraordinary diversity of forests, management regimes, and stress factors. This overview article summarizes forest health fundamentals, significant health risks, and priorities in future forest health management for temperate forests of the United States.

  17. Forest turnover rates follow global and regional patterns of productivity

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stephenson, N.L.; van Mantgem, P.J.

    2005-01-01

    Using a global database, we found that forest turnover rates (the average of tree mortality and recruitment rates) parallel broad-scale patterns of net primary productivity. First, forest turnover was higher in tropical than in temperate forests. Second, as recently demonstrated by others, Amazonian forest turnover was higher on fertile than infertile soils. Third, within temperate latitudes, turnover was highest in angiosperm forests, intermediate in mixed forests, and lowest in gymnosperm forests. Finally, within a single forest physiognomic type, turnover declined sharply with elevation (hence with temperature). These patterns of turnover in populations of trees are broadly similar to the patterns of turnover in populations of plant organs (leaves and roots) found in other studies. Our findings suggest a link between forest mass balance and the population dynamics of trees, and have implications for understanding and predicting the effects of environmental changes on forest structure and terrestrial carbon dynamics. ??2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

  18. White ash decline in Massachusetts: The role of site and climate factors

    SciTech Connect

    Woodcock, H.

    1993-01-01

    White ash increased in basal area between 1962 to 1979 on continuous forest inventory (CFI) plots in Massachusetts, but 20% of 82 ash plots (>10% basal area ash) were classified as decline (from growth and mortality rates). Reclassification of 18 plots on the basis of % crown dieback in 1991 validated the decline classification system and indicated little change in plot decline status in the past decade. Mortality of dominant and co-dominant trees was associated with sites characterized by a high landscape position and soils shallow to bedrock (R[sup 2] = 0.6926, p = 0.0007). Ephemeral streams were common; these sites would be prone to fluctuations in moisture supply. Similar relationships were identified on three 2 ha intensive study sites. Distribution of decline-prone microsite types and decline of ash was highly heterogeneous on the study sites (but not on the CFI plots). Tree-ring analysis showed that trees growing on [open quote]decline-prone[close quote] sites were sensitive to drought (measured by growing year Palmer Drought Severity Index) and indicated that the present episode of decline on these sites began in the 1960s, the most severe drought period since 1836. Ash yellows was identified on one and possibly the second of the two study sites with ash decline, and on two of the three decline CFI plots resampled in 1991. Sites with a SI > 80 supported healthy trees in 1991. For sites with a SI < 80, a decline index estimated from landscape position and soil moisture predicted the distribution of decline on the two intensive study sites on which ash decline was present and shows promise as a method of evaluating sites for their potential for ash decline. The relationship between decline and site factors was unique to white ash among several species tested (i.e. it was species-specific). On ash decline sites, red oak and sugar maple increased in relative importance.

  19. H. Res. 394: Providing for consideration of the bill (H.R. 2515) to address the declining health of forests on federal lands in the United States, introduced in the House of Representatives, One Hundred Fifth Congress, Second Session, March 25, 1998

    SciTech Connect

    1998-12-31

    This amendment ensures that forest resources can be protected through a program of recovery and protection consistent with the requirements of existing public land management and environmental laws. A program to inventory, monitor, and analyze public and private forests and their resources will be established.

  20. Responses of Riparian Cottonwoods to Alluvial Water Table Declines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scott, Michael L.; Shafroth, Patrick B.; Auble, Gregor T.

    1999-04-01

    extent of morphological responses and mortality of Populus to the rate, depth, and duration of water table declines can assist in the design of management prescriptions to minimize impacts of alluvial groundwater depletion on existing riparian Populus forests.

  1. Predicting rarity and decline in animals, plants, and mushrooms based on species attributes and indicator groups

    PubMed Central

    Musters, C J M; Kalkman, Vincent; van Strien, Arco

    2013-01-01

    In decisions on nature conservation measures, we depend largely on knowledge of the relationship between threats and environmental factors for a very limited number of species groups, with relevant environmental factors often being deduced from the relationship between threat and species traits. But can relationships between traits and levels of threats be identified across species from completely different taxonomic groups; and how accurately do well-known taxonomic groups indicate levels of threat in other species groups? To answer these questions, we first made a list of 152 species attributes of morphological and demographic traits and habitat requirements. Based on these attributes we then grew random forests of decision trees for 1183 species in the 18 different taxonomic groups for which we had Red Lists available in the Netherlands, using these to classify animals, plants, and mushrooms according to their rarity and decline. Finally, we grew random forests for four species groups often used as indicator groups to study how well the relationship between attribute and decline within these groups reflected that relationship within the larger taxonomic group to which these groups belong. Correct classification of rarity based on all attributes was as high as 88% in animals, 85% in plants, and 94% in mushrooms and correct classification of decline was 78% in animals, 69% in plants, and 70% in mushrooms. Vertebrates indicated decline in all animals well, as did birds for all vertebrates and vascular plants for all plants. However, butterflies poorly indicated decline in all insects. Random forests are a useful tool to relate rarity and decline to species attributes thereby making it possible to generalize rarity and decline to a wider set of species groups. Random forests can be used to estimate the level of threat to complete faunas and floras of countries or regions. In regions like the Netherlands, conservation policy based on attributes known to be relevant

  2. Decline of the oil cartel

    SciTech Connect

    Fieleke, N.S.

    1986-07-01

    A review of the development that led to the current decline in oil prices concludes that sharp relative price changes have been a major source of world economic instability for the past 13 years. The results for oil-importing countries have been cycles of inflation and contraction followed by inflation and rapid growth. Some see the recent price decline as an effort by OPEC to regain enough power to bring about an eventual price rise. Although past price and production relationships indicate that OPEC has operated as a cartel, the author sees current efforts to persuade non-OPEC producers to lower their production as an indication of weakness. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve could help the US cope with any future supply disruption. 7 figures, 3 tables.

  3. Women who decline breast screening.

    PubMed

    Maclean, U; Sinfield, D; Klein, S; Harnden, B

    1984-12-01

    The health related behaviour and attitudes of a random sample of 125 women aged 45-64 who declined to accept an invitation to attend a breast screening clinic are described. The women differed from attenders in their socioeconomic class and in their customary use of measures to promote health. They were basically unsympathetic towards the idea of screening and the invitation had caused them considerable anxiety. Policy implications are raised. PMID:6512479

  4. Women who decline breast screening.

    PubMed Central

    Maclean, U; Sinfield, D; Klein, S; Harnden, B

    1984-01-01

    The health related behaviour and attitudes of a random sample of 125 women aged 45-64 who declined to accept an invitation to attend a breast screening clinic are described. The women differed from attenders in their socioeconomic class and in their customary use of measures to promote health. They were basically unsympathetic towards the idea of screening and the invitation had caused them considerable anxiety. Policy implications are raised. PMID:6512479

  5. Warming delays autumn declines in photosynthetic capacity in a boreal conifer, Norway spruce (Picea abies).

    PubMed

    Stinziano, Joseph R; Hüner, Norman P A; Way, Danielle A

    2015-12-01

    Climate change, via warmer springs and autumns, may lengthen the carbon uptake period of boreal tree species, increasing the potential for carbon sequestration in boreal forests, which could help slow climate change. However, if other seasonal cues such as photoperiod dictate when photosynthetic capacity declines, warmer autumn temperatures may have little effect on when carbon uptake capacity decreases in these species. We investigated whether autumn warming would delay photosynthetic decline in Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst.) by growing seedlings under declining weekly photoperiods and weekly temperatures either at ambient temperature or a warming treatment 4 °C above ambient. Photosynthetic capacity was relatively constant in both treatments when weekly temperatures were >8 °C, but declined rapidly at lower temperatures, leading to a delay in the autumn decline in photosynthetic capacity in the warming treatment. The decline in photosynthetic capacity was not related to changes in leaf nitrogen or chlorophyll concentrations, but was correlated with a decrease in the apparent fraction of leaf nitrogen invested in Rubisco, implicating a shift in nitrogen allocation away from the Calvin cycle at low autumn growing temperatures. Our data suggest that as the climate warms, the period of net carbon uptake will be extended in the autumn for boreal forests dominated by Norway spruce, which could increase total carbon uptake in these forests. PMID:26543154

  6. The future of tropical forests.

    PubMed

    Wright, S Joseph

    2010-05-01

    Five anthropogenic drivers--land use change, wood extraction, hunting, atmospheric change, climate change--will largely determine the future of tropical forests. The geographic scope and intensity of these five drivers are in flux. Contemporary land use change includes deforestation (approximately 64,000 km(2) yr(-1) for the entire tropical forest biome) and natural forests regenerating on abandoned land (approximately 21,500 km(2) yr(-1) with just 29% of the biome evaluated). Commercial logging is shifting rapidly from Southeast Asia to Africa and South America, but local fuelwood consumption continues to constitute 71% of all wood production. Pantropical rates of net deforestation are declining even as secondary and logged forests increasingly replace old-growth forests. Hunters reduce frugivore, granivore and browser abundances in most forests. This alters seed dispersal, seed and seedling survival, and hence the species composition and spatial template of plant regeneration. Tropical governments have responded to these local threats by protecting 7% of all land for the strict conservation of nature--a commitment that is only matched poleward of 40 degrees S and 70 degrees N. Protected status often fails to stop hunters and is impotent against atmospheric and climate change. There are increasing reports of stark changes in the structure and dynamics of protected tropical forests. Four broad classes of mechanisms might contribute to these changes. Predictions are developed to distinguish among these mechanisms. PMID:20536814

  7. [Forest health ecological risk assessment in China].

    PubMed

    Xiao, Fengjin; Ouyang, Hua; Cheng, Shulan; Zhang, Qiang

    2004-02-01

    Forest health ecological risk assessment is an important factor in forest resources management. In this paper, we selected forest fire, forest disease-pest disasters and acid rain as main risk sources, described the risk resources by probability, intensity and distributing, and mapped each risk source. The endpoints were the damages that the risk acceptor might and these damages might cause ecosystems' organization and function changing under the uncertainty risk sources. Endpoints of forest might compose of productivity descent, reducing biodiversity, forest degrading, forest ecological function declining, furthermore, forest disappearing. We described exposure in terms of intensity, space, and time. In the exposure and hazard analysis, we used fragile index to show frangibility or resistibility (resistibility is reverse to frangibility), and analyzed the damages by different risk sources. Risk assessment and management was the integrated phase of the research. Because of the spatial heterogeneity of risk sources, all risk index were overlaid in the China map by GIS, which divided the region into 30 ecological risk sub-zones (provinces), according to risk index of each risk sub-zone, and the forest in China was divided into six levels of risk zones. In every level of risk zones, we also put forward the countermeasures for forest health ecological risk management. The result of assessment could provide scientific basis for forest management. PMID:15146655

  8. Declining Use of Wild Resources by Indigenous Peoples of the Ecuadorian Amazon

    PubMed Central

    Gray, Clark L.; Bozigar, Matthew; Bilsborrow, Richard E.

    2015-01-01

    Wild product harvesting by forest-dwelling peoples, including hunting, fishing, forest product collection and timber harvesting, is believed to be a major threat to the biodiversity of tropical forests worldwide. Despite this threat, few studies have attempted to quantify these activities across time or across large spatial scales. We use a unique longitudinal household survey (n = 480) to describe changes in these activities over time in 32 indigenous communities from five ethnicities in the northern Ecuadorian Amazon. To provide insight into the drivers of these changes, we also estimate multilevel statistical models of these activities as a function of household and community characteristics. These analyses reveal that participation in hunting, fishing, and forest product collection is high but declining across time and across ethnicities, with no evidence for a parallel decline in resource quality. However, participation in timber harvesting did not significantly decline and there is evidence of a decline in resource quality. Multilevel statistical models additionally reveal that household and community characteristics such as ethnicity, demographic characteristics, wealth, livelihood diversification, access to forest, participation in conservation programs and exposure to external markets are significant predictors of wild product harvesting. These characteristics have changed over time but cannot account for declining participation in resource harvesting. This finding suggests that participation is declining due to changes in the regional-scale social and economic context, including urbanization and the expansion of government infrastructure and services. The lesson for conservationists is that macro-scale social and economic conditions can drive reductions in wild product harvesting even in the absence of successful conservation interventions. PMID:25620805

  9. A role for tropical forests in stabilizing atmospheric CO2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Houghton, R. A.; Byers, Brett; Nassikas, Alexander A.

    2015-12-01

    Tropical forests could offset much of the carbon released from the declining use of fossil fuels, helping to stabilize and then reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations, thereby providing a bridge to a low-fossil-fuel future.

  10. Acceleration of oxygen decline in the tropical Pacific over the past decades by aerosol pollutants

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ito, T.; Nenes, A.; Johnson, M. S.; Meskhidze, N.; Deutsch, C.

    2016-06-01

    Dissolved oxygen in the mid-depth tropical Pacific Ocean has declined in the past several decades. The resulting expansion of the oxygen minimum zone has consequences for the region's ecosystem and biogeochemical cycles, but the causes of the oxygen decline are not yet fully understood. Here we combine models of atmospheric chemistry, ocean circulation and biogeochemical cycling to test the hypothesis that atmospheric pollution over the Pacific Ocean contributed to the redistribution of oxygen in deeper waters. We simulate the pollution-induced enhancement of atmospheric soluble iron and fixed nitrogen deposition, as well as its impacts on ocean productivity and biogeochemical cycling for the late twentieth century. The model reproduces the magnitude and large-scale pattern of the observed oxygen changes from the 1970s to the 1990s, and the sensitivity experiments reveal the reinforcing effects of pollution-enhanced iron deposition and natural climate variability. Despite the aerosol deposition being the largest in mid-latitudes, its effect on oceanic oxygen is most pronounced in the tropics, where ocean circulation transports added iron to the tropics, leading to an increased regional productivity, respiration and subsurface oxygen depletion. These results suggest that anthropogenic pollution can interact and amplify climate-driven impacts on ocean biogeochemistry, even in remote ocean biomes.

  11. Dietary Factors and Cognitive Decline

    PubMed Central

    Smith, P.J.; Blumenthal, J.A.

    2015-01-01

    Cognitive decline is an increasingly important public health problem, with more than 100 million adults worldwide projected to develop dementia by 2050. Accordingly, there has been an increased interest in preventive strategies that diminish this risk. It has been recognized that lifestyle factors including dietary patterns, may be important in the prevention of cognitive decline and dementia in later life. Several dietary components have been examined, including antioxidants, fatty acids, and B vitamins. In addition, whole dietary eating plans, including the Mediterranean diet (MeDi), and the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) diet, with and without weight loss, have become areas of increasing interest. Although prospective epidemiological studies have observed that antioxidants, fatty acids, and B vitamins are associated with better cognitive functioning, randomized clinical trials have generally failed to confirm the value of any specific dietary component in improving neurocognition. Several randomized trials have examined the impact of changing ‘whole’ diets on cognitive outcomes. The MeDi and DASH diets offer promising preliminary results, but data are limited and more research in this area is needed. PMID:26900574

  12. [Strategic factors in fertility decline].

    PubMed

    Genne, M

    1984-01-01

    This study examines income as an important but not exclusive determinant of demographic evolution, using the theoretical model of the demographic transition. Researches at the Population Center at Princeton and the authors of the Bachue dimulation models among others believe that acceleration of fertility decline can be achieved by a more equitable distribution of income, goods, and knowledge. Among the works of this school of thought, the studies of r. Repetto which give quantitative expression to the correlation are particularly interesting when they are placed in the framework of the demographic transition. Even if the significance of all factors involved in the fertility decline has not been specified, income distribution plays a certain role regardless of the definition given to transition: the classic model, the revised definition of the Princeton group, or the equitable development model. A study of the Hungarian case between 1870-1910 bears out the relationship. It is equally interesting to note that developing countries currently have a demographic configuration similar to that of European countries in general, and of Hungary in particular, as of the beginning of the last century, and that a more equalitarian distribution of land or of income could bring about the same effects over time. PMID:12313296

  13. Arctic sea ice decline: Introduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    DeWeaver, Eric T.

    By any measure, the loss of Arctic sea ice cover in September 2007 was spectacular. The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) called it a loss "the size of Alaska and Texas combined," in comparison to the 1979-2000 September mean. Record-breaking minima in sea ice extent are not unexpected, given the declining trend of the past 30 years and its recent acceleration [e.g., Meier et al., 2007; Deser and Teng, this volume]. But the 2007 minimum was remarkable even compared to the decline, a full four standard deviations below the trend line (H. Stern, quoted by Schweiger et al. [2008]). Kerr [2007] reported an Alaska-sized loss compared to the previous record low in 2005, which was itself an Alaska-sized retreat from the value at the beginning of the satellite era in 1979. Deser and Teng point out that the loss between September 2006 and September 2007 is as large as the entire September extent loss from 1979 to 2006.

  14. Functional decline in older adults.

    PubMed

    Colón-Emeric, Cathleen S; Whitson, Heather E; Pavon, Juliessa; Hoenig, Helen

    2013-09-15

    Functional disability is common in older adults. It is often episodic and is associated with a high risk of subsequent health decline. The severity of disability is determined by physical impairments caused by underlying medical conditions, and by external factors such as social support, financial support, and the environment. When multiple health conditions are present, they often result in greater disability than expected because the patient's ability to compensate for one problem may be affected by comorbid conditions. Evaluation of functional disability is most effective when the physician determines the course of the disability, associated symptoms, effects on specific activities, and coping mechanisms the patient uses to compensate for the functional problem. Underlying health conditions, impairments, and contextual factors (e.g., finances, social support) should be identified using validated screening tools. Interventions should focus on increasing the patient's capacity to cope with task demands and reducing the demands of the task itself. Interventions for functional decline in older adults are almost always multifactorial because they must address multiple conditions, impairments, and contextual factors. PMID:24134046

  15. EVALUATING CHANGES IN FOREST CONDITION POTENTIALLY RELATED TO ACIDIC DEPOSITION: AN EXAMPLE USING RED SPRUCE

    EPA Science Inventory

    As a result of concern about forest decline in Europe and the USA, research has been conducted to investigate changes in forest condition that might be associated with acidic deposition and related pollutants (principally ozone). ymptoms of tree decline observed in the field typi...

  16. Forest Fragmentation

    EPA Science Inventory

    This indicator describes forest fragmentation in the contiguous United States circa 2001. This information provides a broad, recent picture of the spatial pattern of the nation’s forests and the extent to which they are being broken into smaller patches and pierced or interspe...

  17. Attack on our eastern forests

    SciTech Connect

    Hoffer, W.

    1985-06-01

    The northeastern US is the focus of this month's continuing series on acid deposition. There is evidence that US forests are showing some of the same signs of decline as those in Europe, but there is no clean explanation as to the cause of deterioration. The decline is most evident in the red spruce above 6350 feet in North Carolina despite the lack of drought in the area. A study of mycorrhizae on Mount Mitchell found a significant level of deterioration at the higher elevations. Greenhouse efforts to simulate acid rain conditions on Mount Mitchell, where lead and copper soil concentrations are unusually high, do not rule out other contributing factors, such as ozone or airborne nitrogen. There is no strong correlation between the Black Forest studies and the findings in North Carolina, but researchers agree upon the need for more data and for standardized monitoring.

  18. Seasonal change in tropical habitat quality and body condition for a declining migratory songbird.

    PubMed

    McKinnon, Emily A; Rotenberg, James A; Stutchbury, Bridget J M

    2015-10-01

    Many migratory songbirds spend their non-breeding season in tropical humid forests, where climate change is predicted to increase the severity and frequency of droughts and decrease rainfall. For conservation of these songbirds, it is critical to understand how resources during the non-breeding season are affected by seasonal patterns of drying, and thereby predict potential long-term effects of climate change. We studied habitat quality for a declining tropical forest-dwelling songbird, the wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), and tested the hypothesis that habitat moisture and arthropod abundance are drivers of body condition during the overwintering period. We examined habitat moisture, abundance of arthropods and fruit, and condition of individual birds (n = 418) in three habitat types--mature forest, mature forest with increased presence of human activity, and riparian scrub--from October to April. We found a strong pattern of habitat drying from October (wet season) to March (prior to spring migration) in all habitats, with concurrent declines in arthropod and fruit abundance. Body condition of birds also declined (estimated ~5 % decline over the wintering period), with no significant difference by habitat. Relatively poor condition (low body condition index, low fat and pectoral muscles scores) was equally apparent in all habitat types in March. Climate change is predicted to increase the severity of dry seasons in Central America, and our results suggest that this could negatively affect the condition of individual wood thrushes. PMID:26001604

  19. Conifer Decline and Mortality in Siberia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kharuk, V.; Im, S.; Ranson, K.

    2015-12-01

    "Dark needle conifer" (DNC: Abies sibirica, Pinus sibirica and Picea obovata) decline and mortality increase were documented in Russia during recent decades. Here we analyzed causes and scale of Siberian pine and fir mortality in Altai-Sayan and Baikal Lake Regions and West Siberian Plane based on in situdata and remote sensing (QuickBird, Landsat, GRACE). Geographically, mortality began on the margins of the DNC range (i.e., within the forest-steppe and conifer-broadleaf ecotones) and on terrain features with maximal water stress risk (narrow-shaped hilltops, convex steep south facing slopes, shallow well-drained soils). Within ridges, mortality occurred mainly along mountain passes, where stands faced drying winds. Regularly mortality was observed to decrease with elevation increase with the exception of Baikal Lake Mountains, where it was minimal near the lake shore and increased with elevation (up to about 1000 m a.s.l.). Siberian pine and fir mortality followed a drying trend with consecutive droughts since the 1980s. Dendrochronology analysis showed that mortality was correlated with vapor pressure deficit increase, drought index, soil moisture decrease and occurrence of late frosts. In Baikal region Siberian pine mortality correlated with Baikal watershed meteorological variables. An impact of previous year climate conditions on the current growth was found (r2 = 0.6). Thus, water-stressed trees became sensitive to bark beetles and fungi impact (including Polygraphus proximus and Heterobasidion annosum). At present, an increase in mortality is observed within the majority of DNC range. Results obtained also showed a primary role of water stress in that phenomenon with a secondary role of bark beetles and fungi attacks. In future climate with increased drought severity and frequency Siberian pine and fir will partly disappear from its current range, and will be substituted by drought-tolerant species (e.g., Pinus silvestris, Larix sibirica).

  20. Declining Sunshine for Phoenix Lander

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2008-01-01

    The yellow line on this graphic indicates the number of hours of sunlight each sol, or Martian day, at the Phoenix landing site's far-northern latitude, beginning with the entire Martian day (about 24 hours and 40 minutes) for the first 90 sols, then declining to no sunlight by about sol 300. The blue tick mark indicates that on Sol 124 (Sept. 29, 2008), the sun is above the horizon for about 20 hours.

    The brown vertical bar represents the period from Nov. 18 to Dec. 24, 2008, around the 'solar conjunction,' when the sun is close to the line between Mars and Earth, affecting communications.

    The green vertical rectangle represents the period from February to November 2009 when the Phoenix lander is expected to be encased in carbon-dioxide ice.

  1. Adult attachment and declining birthrates.

    PubMed

    Draper, Thomas W; Holman, Thomas B; White, Whitney; Grandy, Shannon

    2007-02-01

    Attachment scores for 658 young adults living in the U.S.A. were obtained using the Experiences in Close Relationships scale. The participants came from a subsample of the RELATE data set, who had also filled out the adult attachment measure. Those young adults living in Utah County, Utah, an area of the country with a higher than normal birthrate (88% members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints), also had higher than average adult attachment scores. While the methodology was not sufficient to assess causal direction nor eliminate the possibility of unidentified influences, an undiscussed psychological factor, adult attachment, may play a role in the numerical declines observed among nonimmigrant communities in the USA and Europe. PMID:17450996

  2. Organizational Effects of Decline and Turbulence.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cameron, Kim S.; And Others

    1987-01-01

    Clarifies the meaning of organizational decline by delimiting it from related constructs (turbulence, stagnation, and environmental decline). Investigates certain organizational attributes associated with turbulence and decline in 334 higher education institutions over a six-year period. Results suggest that organizational attributes associated…

  3. Matching Managerial Strategies to Conditions of Decline.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cameron, Kim; Zammuto, Raymond

    1984-01-01

    A typology of decline based on institutional characteristics is suggested as a basis for matching managerial response to specific decline situations. The four decline types identified are erosion, contraction, dissolution, and collapse. The model is also suggested as a means for diagnosing organizational environments. (MSE)

  4. Nutrient limitations to secondary forest regrowth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davidson, Eric A.; Martinelli, Luiz A.

    The old, highly weathered soils of the lowland forest within the Amazon Basin generally exhibit conservative P cycles and leaky N cycles. This generalization applies to mature forests, but accelerating land use change is altering Amazonian landscapes. About 16% of the original forest area has been cleared, and about 160,000 km2 is in secondary forest cover. Secondary forests are common in agricultural regions, but few persist in one place for much more than 5 years. The nutrients within ephemeral forests are important for smallholder traditional slash-and-burn agriculture and in alternatives developed to conserve nutrients. Forest clearing causes an initial loss of nutrients through timber harvesting, fire, erosion, soil gaseous emissions, and hydrologic leaching, with N losses exceeding P losses. In contrast, the Ca, Mg, and K present in woody biomass are largely conserved as ash following fire, redistributing these nutrients to the soil. After the initial postclearing pulse of nutrient availability, rates of N cycling and loss consistently decline as cattle pastures age. Fertilization experiments have demonstrated that growth of young forests in abandoned agricultural land is nutrient limited. Several N cycling indicators in a secondary forest chronosequence study also demonstrated a conservative N cycle in young forests. Variable N limitation in young forests helps explain a negative relationship observed between the burn frequency during previous agricultural phases and the rate of forest regrowth. Recuperation of the N cycle gradually occurs during decades of secondary forest succession, such that mature lowland forests eventually recover abundant N relative to a conservative P cycle.

  5. Prospective Scope of Forest Management Education at James Madison's Montpelier

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Munsell, John F.; Hamilton, Rachel; Downing, Adam K.

    2009-01-01

    Urban sprawl and intergenerational transfers are fostering a new period of family forest ownership in the United States typified by larger numbers of younger owners with smaller parcels that are interested in managing their forests but often lacking requisite knowledge. At the same time, there is a general decline in the public's connection to…

  6. [Ozone decline and UV increase].

    PubMed

    Winkler, P; Trepte, S

    2004-02-01

    The following results have been obtained from long-term observations on the ozone layer and UV at the Meteorological Observatory Hohenpeigenberg:The seasonally varying decline of the ozone layer determines the maximum exposure to UV. Since ozone decline shows the highest rates in the spring months the UV exposure has most strongly increased in this time of the year. This is especially important because in spring the human skin is not adapted to UV exposure. Weather changes from day to day can induce rapid ozone reductions in spring about -30% which in turn is followed by an increase in UV of about 40%. Clouds, especially the transparent cirrus clouds (high clouds consisting of ice particles) have increased in frequency during spring and fall while a decrease is observed in summer. This change in cloudiness reduces the daily UV dose in spring and fall while it is enhanced in summer. With increasing height above sea level UV rises by roughly 10% per 1000 m (rule of thumb). Snow reflects the UV-radiation by up to 80% enhancing the UV-doses at relevant conditions. Strong volcano eruptions destroy ozone in the stratosphere additionally during 1-2 years after the eruption. Therafter the ozone layer recovers. In April 1993, after the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo (1991), the UV burden was still 40% higher than average. Miniholes and streamers can appear unexpected on a short-time scale and cross over Central Europe within 1-2 days, thus enhancing UV irradiation. The human skin reacts to UV exposure depending on the type of skin. The campaign "Sonne(n) mit Verstand" of the Bavarian Ministries for Environment, for Health and for Education informs about the danger of UV radiation (see www.sonne-mit-ver-stand.de). The German Weather Service informs the public on present developments of the ozone layer and relevant topics byits ozone bulletin, which is also available via internet under (www.dwd.de/deFundE/Observator/MOHp/hp2/ozon/bulletin.htm). PMID:14770335

  7. [Estimation of forest volume in Huzhong forest area based on RS, GIS and ANN].

    PubMed

    Liu, Zhi-Hua; Chang, Yu; Chen, Hong-Wei

    2008-09-01

    Based on remote sensing (RS) which has integrated and realistic characteristics, geographic information system (GIS) which has powerful spatial analysis ability, and artificial neutral network (ANN) which can optimize nonlinear complex systems, the forest volume in Huzhong forest area was estimated. The results showed that there was an obvious negative correlation between the forest volume and infrared band, indicating that infrared band had definite potential in estimating forest volume. The forest volume also negatively correlated with visible band and PC1. Among the topographic factors, altitude exerted more influence than aspect and slope on the estimation of forest volume. The correlation coefficient of predicted value and actual value reached to 0.973, when the optimal ANN parameter, suitable GIS information, and RS bands were adopted. After principal component transformation, the amount of observation data was effectively reduced, while the predicted precision only had a small decline (R2 = 0.934). PMID:19102299

  8. Declining scaup populations: A retrospective analysis of long-term population and harvest survey data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Afton, A.D.; Anderson, M.G.

    2001-01-01

    We examined long-term databases concerning population status of scaup (lesser [Aythya affinis] and greater scaup [A. marila] combined) and harvest statistics of lesser scaup to identify factors potentially limiting population growth. Specifically, we explored evidence for and against the general hypotheses that scaup populations have declined in association with declining recruitment and/or female survival. We examined geographic heterogeneity in scaup demographic patterns that could yield evidence about potential limiting factors. Several biases exist in survey methodology used to estimate scaup populations and harvest statistics; however, none of these biases likely accounted for our major findings that (1) the continental scaup breeding population has declined over the last 20 years, with widespread and consistent declines within surveyed areas of the Canadian western boreal forest where most lesser scaup breed; (2) sex ratios of lesser scaup in the U.S. harvest have increased (more males now relative to females); and (3) age ratios of lesser scaup in the U.S. harvest have declined (fewer immatures now relative to adults), especially in the midcontinent region. We interpreted these major findings as evidence that (1) recruitment of lesser scaup has declined over the last 20 years, particularly in the Canadian western boreal forest; and (2) survival of female lesser scaup has declined relative to that of males. We found little evidence that harvest was associated with the scaup population decline. Our findings underscore the need for both improvements and changes to population survey procedures and new research to discriminate among various hypotheses explaining the recent scaup population decline.

  9. Forest restoration and forest communities: have local communities benefited from forest service contracting of ecosystem management?

    PubMed

    Moseley, Cassandra; Reyes, Yolanda E

    2008-08-01

    Conservation-based development programs have sought to create economic opportunities for people negatively impacted by biological diversity protection. The USDA Forest Service, for example, developed policies and programs to create contracting opportunities for local communities to restore public lands to replace jobs lost from reduced timber harvest. This article examines 12 years of Forest Service land management contracting in western Oregon, Washington, and northern California to evaluate if contractors located in communities near national forests have been awarded more land management contracts and contract value over time. We find that land management contracting spending has declined dramatically and, once we control for intervening factors, we find that local contractors have received a smaller proportion of land management contracts over time. PMID:18521660

  10. Forest Restoration and Forest Communities: Have Local Communities Benefited from Forest Service Contracting of Ecosystem Management?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moseley, Cassandra; Reyes, Yolanda E.

    2008-08-01

    Conservation-based development programs have sought to create economic opportunities for people negatively impacted by biological diversity protection. The USDA Forest Service, for example, developed policies and programs to create contracting opportunities for local communities to restore public lands to replace jobs lost from reduced timber harvest. This article examines 12 years of Forest Service land management contracting in western Oregon, Washington, and northern California to evaluate if contractors located in communities near national forests have been awarded more land management contracts and contract value over time. We find that land management contracting spending has declined dramatically and, once we control for intervening factors, we find that local contractors have received a smaller proportion of land management contracts over time.

  11. Neurocognitive decline in Alexander disease.

    PubMed

    Restrepo, June; Bernardin, Linda; Hammeke, Thomas

    2011-10-01

    Alexander disease is a neurological condition associated with prominent white matter deterioration. Its rarity and relatively rapid disease course have provided limited understanding into the cognitive effects of the illness. We report the serial neuropsychological findings of a 21-year-old with normal development and no medical history until age 9, when he experienced refractory sinusitis, stabbing headaches with vertigo, disorientation, and decline in academic and social settings. An MRI scan of the brain found acute demyelinating encephalomyelitis, with a preponderance of white matter degeneration in the bilateral frontal lobes. Interval MRIs showed continued degeneration. Confirmation of Alexander disease was made at age 20 through genetic testing. Four evaluations completed from ages 15 to 21 showed impairment across all cognitive domains. Cognitive deficits were most prominent in new learning and recent memory, executive functions, and fine motor dexterity, and less apparent in information processing and visual scanning speed. These results present evidence for a particular cognitive pattern in individuals with juvenile-onset Alexander disease. Despite extensive white matter degeneration in the frontal lobes, certain tasks associated with frontal lobe integrity were relatively preserved. Further research into the neuropsychological presentation of the subtypes of Alexander disease can enhance diagnostic clarity and treatment planning. PMID:21902566

  12. Mortality rates decline in Malaysia.

    PubMed

    1991-11-01

    Experiencing remarkable decreases in mortality rates over the past 3 decades, Malaysia currently has one of the lowest mortality rates among developing countries, a rate that compares favorably with those of developed countries. Between 1957 and 1989, the crude death rate dropped from 12.4/1000 population to 4.6. Over the same period, Malaysia recorded even greater decreases in the infant mortality rate, from 75.5/1000 births to 15.2. The Maternal mortality rate also declined from 1.48 in 1970 to 0.24 in 1988. The data indicates that mortality rates vary from state to state, and that rural areas have a higher mortality than urban areas. According to a study by the National Population and Family Development Board, the use of maternal and child health services has played an important role in reducing neonatal, perinatal, infant, child, and maternal mortality rates. Nearly all women in Malaysia receive antenatal services. While the country has achieved great gains on mortality rates, programs focusing on specific age and socioeconomic groups could lead to even greater reductions. The Minister for National Unity and Social Development, Dato Napsiah Omar, has called for the development of programs designed to improve the population's quality of life. PMID:12284509

  13. Protected forests in Europe approaches-harmonising the definitions for international comparison and forest policy making.

    PubMed

    Parviainen, Jari; Frank, Georg

    2003-01-01

    Comparison of forest protection between regions in Europe is extremely difficult, because there is such wide variation of strategies, procedures and constraints; the way forests have been used historically and their present closeness to nature also varies, and furthermore so does the definition of what constitutes a forest. For the European Ministerial Conference on the Protection of Forests in Europe (MCPFE) in 2003, forest protection has been harmonised into three categories for the sake of comparison: protection to safeguard biodiversity, protection of landscape and specific natural features, and protective forest functions. There is no single, uniform and universal model and no internationally agreed target with respect to the percentage of forests which should be protected. What is more important than a fixed percentage level of forested area (e.g. 5 or 10%) is that the protection network should be biogeographically and ecologically representative and accordingly distributed on a regional basis. Long-term practical experience and research have proved that conservation of different species of organisms can be assured by appropriate silvicultural management of multifunctional production forests. Consequently, the focus of debate in Europe appears to shift more and more from total protection in segregated areas to 'precision protection' and to combining protection and timber production in the holistic, integrated concept of modern management of forest areas.Advances in regional ecological planning and the growing adoption of naturalistic forest management practices have slowed the decline of the biological diversity in the multifunctional production forests. However, this fact is not yet widely and sufficiently acknowledged and appreciated. There is consequently a political and scientific need for continued study of the effects of naturalistic silvicultural management on the biodiversity of forests. Information from such research is crucially needed before new

  14. [Concentration or decline in Puebla?].

    PubMed

    Cabrera Becerra, V

    1993-04-01

    Some doubts have been expressed over whether the slowing pace of urbanization suggested by the 1990 census of Mexico was an accurate reflection of changing conditions, or whether it resulted from some intentional or unintended bias. Comparison of data from succeeding censuses indicates that the growth rate of the city of Puebla declined from 6.32% in 1980 to 2.63% in 1990. This work argues that, in Puebla, a trend to deconcentration of the population within the city of Puebla during the 1980s was accompanied by rapid growth in smaller and medium sized nearby cities, resulting in increased overall concentration in Puebla's metropolitan area. The absolute population of the city of Puebla increased from 772,908 in 1980 to 1,007,170 in 1990. The central area of the state of Puebla, which surrounds the city, increased its share of the state population from 51.67% in 1980 to 52.21% in 1990. The number of places with over 5000 inhabitants in the area surrounding the city of Puebla increased from 27 in 1980 to 39 in 1990. Construction of the Puebla-Atlixco highway will undoubtedly attract growth to the area southwest of Puebla. Small cities to the east of Puebla have shown significant growth although their region remains strongly rural. The same process of deconcentration of population in Puebla and concentration in its surrounding metropolitan regions can probably also be detected in patterns of investment of public funds. The trend is likely to continue through the 1990s. PMID:12346304

  15. Long-term decline and short-term crash of the once abundant Rusty Blackbird

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Greenberg, R.; Blancher, P.; Niven, D.; Droege, S.

    2008-01-01

    The Rusty Blackbird (Euphagus carolinus), a formerly common breeding species of boreal wetlands, has exhibited the most marked decline of any North American landbird. North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) trends in abundance are estimated to be -12.5% / yr over the last 40 years, which is tantamount to a >95% cumulative decline. Trends in abundance calculated from Christmas Bird Counts (CBC) for a similar period indicate a range-wide decline of -5.6% / yr. Qualitative analyses of ornithological accounts suggest the species has been declining for over a century before the period covered by the estimated declines. Several studies document range retraction in the southern boreal forest, whereas limited data suggest that abundance may be more stable in more northerly areas. This pattern is both supported and contradicted by winter declines based in CBC data. The lower estimates of decline in the CBC data compared to BBS is consistent with the idea that the coverage of BBS is biased towards the southern boreal whereas CBC covers the entire winter range. However, the CBC declines are similar between the South Atlantic coast (with populations derived from the southeastern boreal) and the Mississippi Valley (populations from the northwest boreal). The major hypotheses for the decline include degradation of boreal habitats from logging and agricultural agricultural development, mercury contamination, and wetland desiccation resulting from global warming. Other likely reasons for decline include loss or degradation of wooded wetlands of the southeastern U.S and mortality associated with abatement efforts targeting nuisance blackbirds. We present a matrix of hypotheses and predictions that test them based on the geography of decline and more detailed indicators of population health which should form the strategic basis of future research.

  16. Forested wetlands

    SciTech Connect

    Lugo, A.E.; Brinson, M.; Brown, S.

    1990-01-01

    Forested wetlands have important roles in global biogeochemical cycles, supporting freshwater and saltwater commercial fisheries, and in providing a place for wildlife of all kinds to flourish. Scientific attention towards these ecosystems has lagged with only a few comprehensive works on forested wetlands of the world. A major emphasis of this book is to develop unifying principles and data bases on the structure and function of forested wetlands, in order to stimulate scientific study of them. Wetlands are areas that are inundated or saturated by surface-water or ground-water, at such a frequency and duration that under natural conditions they support organisms adapted to poorly aerated and/or saturated soil. The strategy of classifying the conditions that control the structure and behavior of forested wetlands by assuming that the physiognomy and floristic composition of the system will reflect the total energy expenditure of the ecosystem; and the structural and functional characteristics of forested wetlands from different parts of the world are the major topics covered.

  17. Declines in woodland salamander abundance associated with non-native earthworm and plant invasions.

    PubMed

    Maerz, John C; Nuzzo, Victoria A; Blossey, Bernd

    2009-08-01

    Factors that negatively affect the quality of wildlife habitat are a major concern for conservation. Non-native species invasions, in particular, are perceived as a global threat to the quality of wildlife habitat. Recent evidence indicates that some changes to understory plant communities in northern temperate forests of North America, including invasions by 3 non-native plant species, are facilitated by non-native earthworm invasion. Furthermore, non-native earthworm invasions cause a reduction in leaf litter on the forest floor, and the loss of forest leaf litter is commonly associated with declines in forest fauna, including amphibians. We conducted a mark-recapture study of woodland salamander abundance across plant invasion fronts at 10 sites to determine whether earthworm or plant invasions were associated with reduced salamander abundance. Salamander abundance declined exponentially with decreasing leaf litter volume. There was no significant relationship between invasive plant cover and salamander abundance, independent of the effects of leaf litter loss due to earthworm invasion. An analysis of selected salamander prey abundance (excluding earthworms) at 4 sites showed that prey abundance declined with declining leaf litter. The loss of leaf litter layers due to non-native earthworm invasions appears to be negatively affecting woodland salamander abundance, in part, because of declines in the abundance of small arthropods that are a stable resource for salamanders. Our results demonstrate that earthworm invasions pose a significant threat to woodland amphibian fauna in the northeastern United States, and that plant invasions are symptomatic of degraded amphibian habitat but are not necessarily drivers of habitat degradation. PMID:19236449

  18. Effects of rapid urban sprawl on urban forest carbon stocks: integrating remotely sensed, GIS and forest inventory data.

    PubMed

    Ren, Yin; Yan, Jing; Wei, Xiaohua; Wang, Yajun; Yang, Yusheng; Hua, Lizhong; Xiong, Yongzhu; Niu, Xiang; Song, Xiaodong

    2012-12-30

    Research on the effects of urban sprawl on carbon stocks within urban forests can help support policy for sustainable urban design. This is particularly important given climate change and environmental deterioration as a result of rapid urbanization. The purpose of this study was to quantify the effects of urban sprawl on dynamics of forest carbon stock and density in Xiamen, a typical city experiencing rapid urbanization in China. Forest resource inventory data collected from 32,898 patches in 4 years (1972, 1988, 1996 and 2006), together with remotely sensed data (from 1988, 1996 and 2006), were used to investigate vegetation carbon densities and stocks in Xiamen, China. We classified the forests into four groups: (1) forest patches connected to construction land; (2) forest patches connected to farmland; (3) forest patches connected to both construction land and farmland and (4) close forest patches. Carbon stocks and densities of four different types of forest patches during different urbanization periods in three zones (urban core, suburb and exurb) were compared to assess the impact of human disturbance on forest carbon. In the urban core, the carbon stock and carbon density in all four forest patch types declined over the study period. In the suburbs, different urbanization processes influenced forest carbon density and carbon stock in all four forest patch types. Urban sprawl negatively affected the surrounding forests. In the exurbs, the carbon stock and carbon density in all four forest patch types tended to increase over the study period. The results revealed that human disturbance played the dominant role in influencing the carbon stock and density of forest patches close to the locations of human activities. In forest patches far away from the locations of human activities, natural forest regrowth was the dominant factor affecting carbon stock and density. PMID:23122621

  19. Reversing Africa's Decline. Worldwatch Paper 65.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Lester R.; Wolf, Edward C.

    This paper highlights some of the themes that any successful strategy to reverse the decline of Africa must embrace. Africa is a continent experiencing a breakdown in the relationship between people and their natural support systems. Famine and the threat of famine are among the manifestations of this breakdown. This decline can be reversed. To do…

  20. Novelty Seeking in Adulthood: Increases Accompany Decline

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reio, Thomas G., Jr.; Choi, Namok

    2004-01-01

    Using stereotypes, researchers have predicted that novelty seeking declines in adulthood. Through this cross-sectional study, the authors revealed that only the external sensational type of novelty seeking declined, whereas the internal sensational and internal and external cognitive types remained stable or increased. A population of 233 adults…

  1. Retirement Age Declines Again in 1990s.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gendell, Murray

    2001-01-01

    The average retirement age continued to decline in the 1990s after having leveled off during the preceding 10-15 years. The resumption of the decline is attributed largely to a rise in the labor force participation rate of older men and women between the mid-1980s and 2000. (Author/JOW)

  2. Aging, Terminal Decline, and Terminal Drop

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Palmore, Erdman; Cleveland, William

    1976-01-01

    Data from a 20-year longitudinal study of persons over 60 were analyzed by step-wise multiple regression to test for declines in function with age, for terminal decline (linear relationship to time before death), and for terminal drop (curvilinear relationship to time before death). There were no substantial terminal drop effects. (Author)

  3. 31 CFR 240.7 - Declination protest.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ..., which can be found at http://www.fms.treas.gov. Treasury will not consider any protest unless it is received within 90 days from the declination date. (d) Review of a declination protest. The responsible FMS... where it is not possible to render a decision within 60 days, the responsible FMS Director, or...

  4. 31 CFR 240.7 - Declination protest.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ..., which can be found at http://www.fms.treas.gov. Treasury will not consider any protest unless it is received within 90 days from the declination date. (d) Review of a declination protest. The responsible FMS... where it is not possible to render a decision within 60 days, the responsible FMS Director, or...

  5. Air pollution, acid rain, and the future of forests. Part 3. Counting the costs

    SciTech Connect

    Postel, S.

    1984-09-01

    Economic losses are predicted due to the effects of acid rain on forests in Europe and the United States. Growth declines and tree damage on forest lands intensively managed for marketable timber are described. Forest industries which produce paper and other forest products which consume large amounts of energy are said to be reluctant to support acid rain control measures. Few studies have examined the effects of acid deposition combined with intensive forestry practices.

  6. Feral Pigs, Introduced Mosquitoes, and the Decline of Hawai'i's Native Birds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    LaPointe, Dennis A.

    2006-01-01

    The introduction of mosquitoes, avian pox, and avian malaria to the Hawaiian Islands has had a profound effect on the geographical distribution and population number of highly susceptible Hawaiian honeycreepers, and likely contributed to the extinction of several species. While the mosquito vector (disease-carrier) is most closely associated with human activity, in remote Hawaiian rain forests, feral pigs may be pivotally important to the disease system. Since 1991, USGS scientists have taken a leadership position in identifying the role these diseases continue to play in the decline and extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds and in finding ways to mitigate their impacts.

  7. Pollution-induced community tolerance to non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) in fluvial biofilm communities affected by WWTP effluents.

    PubMed

    Corcoll, Natàlia; Acuña, Vicenç; Barceló, Damià; Casellas, Maria; Guasch, Helena; Huerta, Belinda; Petrovic, Mira; Ponsatí, Lidia; Rodríguez-Mozaz, Sara; Sabater, Sergi

    2014-10-01

    We assessed the tolerance acquired by stream biofilms to two non-steroidal anti-inflammatory-drugs (NSAIDs), ibuprofen and diclofenac. Biofilms came from a stream system receiving the effluent of a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP). The response of biofilms from a non-polluted site (upstream the WWTP) was compared to that of others downstream with relevant and decreasing levels of NSAIDs. Experiments performed in the laboratory following the pollution-induced community tolerance (PICT) approach determined that both algae and microbial communities from biofilms of the sites exposed at the highest concentrations of ibuprofen and diclofenac acquired tolerance to the mixture of these NSAIDs occurring at the sites. It was also observed that the chronic pollution by the WWTP effluent affected the microbial metabolic profile, as well as the structure of the algal community. The low (at ng L(-1) level) but chronic inputs of pharmaceuticals to the river ecosystem result in tolerant communities of lower diversity and altered microbial metabolism. PMID:25048905

  8. Pollution-induced tolerance to copper of nematode communities in the severely contaminated Restronguet Creek and adjacent estuaries, Cornwall, United Kingdom

    SciTech Connect

    Millward, R.N.; Grant, A.

    2000-02-01

    Pollution-induced community tolerance (PICT) has been proposed as an indicator of the deleterious effects of pollutants on communities in the field. Nematode assemblages were sampled at 10 estuarine sites that ranged from uncontaminated to grossly contaminated with metals. Relative tolerance of these assemblages to Cu was quantified using acute toxicity tests. There were large differences between sites in tolerance to Cu, and copper tolerance was strongly correlated with severity of contamination. Enhanced Cu tolerance occurred at two sites where Cu concentration in sediment was around 180 {micro}g/g but not at a third site, where Cu concentration was 214 {micro}g/g. This implies a threshold of effects on these nematode communities at {approximately}200 {micro}g/g Cu. Comparison with studies of nematode community composition in these same estuaries indicates that PICT is at least as sensitive as the best available ecological monitoring methods. It is, however, faster to carry out and requires much less taxonomic expertise. The PICT appears to be a sensitive indicator of ecological effects of pollution and has considerable promise as a monitoring tool.

  9. Possible red spruce decline: Contributions of tree-ring analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Van Deusen, P.C. ); Reams, G.A. ); Cook, E.R. )

    1991-01-01

    Debate continues about the cause of apparent unprecedented decreases in ring width at all elevations, and increasing levels of mortality at high elevations, in red spruce (Picea rubens) stands in the northeastern United States. These growth and mortality trends are often used as evidence of red spruce decline, but the possibility remains that they may be occurring naturally. Two hypotheses are being used to explain the causes of red spruce growth reduction across its range and increased levels of standing dead at some high-elevation sites. This article summarizes the basic evidence used by advocates of these hypotheses and discusses the strengths of their arguments. The information presented is based primarily on tree-ring studies sponsored by the Forest Response Program, which is part of the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program.

  10. Historical decline in coral reef growth after the Panama Canal.

    PubMed

    Guzman, Hector M; Cipriani, Roberto; Jackson, Jeremy B C

    2008-07-01

    The Panama Canal is near its vessel size and tonnage handling capacity, and Panamanians have decided to expand it. The expansion of the Canal may consider the historical long-lasting impacts on marine coastal habitats particularly on sensitive coral reefs. These potential impacts were discussed during the national referendum as were other equally important issues, such as its effects on forests, watersheds, and water supply. Coral growth rates provide a direct measure of coral fitness and past environmental conditions comparable to analyses of tree rings. We examined stable isotopes, metal geochemical tracers, and growth rates on a century-long (1880-1989) chronology based on 77 cores of the dominant reef-building coral Siderastrea siderea collected near the Caribbean entrance to the canal. Our results showed a gradual decline in coral growth unrelated to changes in sea surface temperature but linked to runoff and sedimentation to coastal areas resulting from the construction and operation of the Panama Canal. PMID:18828279

  11. Forests & Trees.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gage, Susan

    1989-01-01

    This newsletter discusses the disappearance of the world's forests and the resulting environmental problems of erosion and flooding; loss of genetic diversity; climatic changes such as less rainfall, and intensifying of the greenhouse effect; and displacement and destruction of indigenous cultures. The articles, lessons, and activities are…

  12. Forest Imaging

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1992-01-01

    NASA's Technology Applications Center, with other government and academic agencies, provided technology for improved resources management to the Cibola National Forest. Landsat satellite images enabled vegetation over a large area to be classified for purposes of timber analysis, wildlife habitat, range measurement and development of general vegetation maps.

  13. Remote sensing assessment of forest health in the Bohemian forests of central Europe

    SciTech Connect

    Entcheva, P.K.; Rock, B.N.; Lauten, G.N.; Cibula, W.G.

    1996-12-31

    Current studies using Landsat TM data for assessment of forest damage in the Czech Republic and Germany have demonstrated that tree levels of forest damage (light, moderate and heavy) can be discriminated applying logit regression methods, when on the ground foresters can recognize a total of five levels of decline. Field studies using portable spectrometer and a narrow-band video camera provide evidence for recent improvement in forest health and demonstrate that monitoring of the red edge portion of the visible/near infrared region of the spectrum may provide the early warning capabilities, missing when using broad band sensor systems. Detailed measurements of initial stages of damage suggest that hyperspectral sensors, such as the Lewis HSI scheduled for launch in 1997, will provide the capabilities for detection and identification of the initial stages of forest damage.

  14. Ecosystem carbon fluxes and Amazonian forest metabolism

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saleska, Scott; da Rocha, Humberto; Kruijt, Bart; Nobre, Antonio

    Long-term measurements of ecosystem-atmosphere exchanges of carbon, water, and energy, via eddy flux towers, give insight into three key questions about Amazonian forest function. First, what is the carbon balance of Amazon forests? Some towers give accurate site-specific carbon balances, as validated by independent methods, but decisive resolution of the large-scale question will also require integration of remote sensing techniques (to detect and encompass the distribution of naturally induced disturbance states across the landscape of old growth forests) with eddy flux process studies (to characterize the association between carbon balance and forest disturbance states). Second, what is the seasonality of ecosystem metabolism in Amazonian forests? Models have historically simulated dry season declines in photosynthetic metabolism, a consequence of modeled water limitation. Tower sites in equatorial Amazonian forests, however, show that photosynthetic metabolism increases during dry seasons ("green up"), perhaps because deep roots buffer trees from dry season water stress, while phenological rhythms trigger leaf flush, associated with increased solar irradiance. Third, how does ecosystem metabolism vary across biome types and land use patterns? As dry season length increases from equatorial forest, to drier southern forests, to savanna, fluxes show seasonal patterns consistent with increasing water stress, including a switch from dry season green up to "brown down." Land use change in forest ecosystems removes deep roots, artificially inducing the same trend toward brown down. In the final part, this review suggests that eddy tower network and satellite-based insights into seasonal responses provide a model for detecting responses to extreme interannual climate variations that can test whether forests are vulnerable to model-simulated Amazonian forest collapse under climate change.

  15. Theoretical Analysis of Maximum Flow Declination Rate versus Maximum Area Declination Rate in Phonation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Titze, Ingo R.

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: Maximum flow declination rate (MFDR) in the glottis is known to correlate strongly with vocal intensity in voicing. This declination, or negative slope on the glottal airflow waveform, is in part attributable to the maximum area declination rate (MADR) and in part to the overall inertia of the air column of the vocal tract (lungs to…

  16. Population trends of forest birds at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Hawai'i

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Camp, Richard J.; Pratt, Thane K.; Gorresen, P. Marcos; Jeffrey, John J.; Woodworth, Bethany L.

    2010-01-01

    The Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge was established to protect native Hawaiian forest birds, particularly endangered species. Management for forest restoration on the refuge has consisted mainly of removing feral ungulates, controlling invasive alien plants, and reforesting former pastures. To assess effects of this habitat improvement for forest birds, we estimated density annually by distance sampling and examined population trends for native and alien passerines over the 21 years since the refuge was established. We examined long-term trends and recent short-term trajectories in three study areas: (1) reforested pastureland, (2) heavily grazed open forest that was recovering, and (3) lightly grazed closed forest that was relatively intact. Three species of native birds and two species of alien birds had colonized the reforested pasture and were increasing. In the open forest, densities of all eight native species were either stable or increasing. Long-term trends for alien birds were also generally stable or increasing. Worryingly, however, during the most recent 9 years, in the open forest trajectories of native species were decreasing or inconclusive, but in the reforested pasture they generally increased. The closed forest was surveyed in only the most recent 9 years, and trajectories of native species there were mixed. Overall, long-term population trends in Hakalau are stable or increasing, contrasting with declines in most other areas of Hawai'i over the same period. However, more recent mixed results may indicate emergent problems for this important bird area.

  17. Tracking changes in the susceptibility of forest land infested with gypsy moth. Forest Service research paper (Final)

    SciTech Connect

    Gansner, D.A.; Quimby, J.W.; King, S.L.; Arner, S.L.; Drake, D.A.

    1994-08-01

    The report questions the forest land subject to intensive outbreaks of gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) which become less susceptible to defoliation. A model for estimating the lifelihood of gypsy moth defoliation has been developed and validated. It was applied to forest-inventory plot data to quantity trends in the susceptibility of forest land in south-central Pennsylvania during a period of intensive infestation. Results show that even though susceptibility of the region's forest apparently has declined, the potential for future infestations remains relatively high.

  18. Declining scaup populations: issues, hypotheses, and research needs

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Austin, J.E.; Afton, A.D.; Anderson, M.G.; Clark, R.G.; Custer, Christine M.; Lawrence, J.S.; Pollard, J.B.; Ringelman, J.K.

    2000-01-01

    The population estimate for greater (Aythya marila) and lesser (Aythya affinis) scaup (combined) has declined dramatically since the early 1980s to record lows in 1998. The 1998 estimate of 3.47 million scaup is far below the goal of 6.3 million set in the North American Waterfowl Management Plan (NAWMP), causing concern among biologists and hunters. We summarize issuesof concern, hypotheses for factors contributing to the population decline, and research and management needs recommended by participants of the Scaup Workshop, held in September 1999. We believe that contaminants, lower female survival, and reduced recruitment due to changes in food resources or breedingground habitats are primary factors contributing to the decline. These factors are not mutually exclusive but likely interact across seasons. Workshop participants identified seven action items. We need to further delineate where declines in breeding populations have occurred, with a primary focus on the western Canadian boreal forest, where declines appear to be most pronounced. Productivity in various areas and habitats throughout the breeding range needs to be assessed by conducting retrospective analyses of existing data and by intensive field studies at broad and local scales. Annual and seasonal survival rates need to be determined in order to assess the role of harvest or natural mortality. Effects of contaminants on reproduction, female body condition, and behavior must be investigated. Use, distribution, and role of food resources relative to body condition and reproduction need to be examined to better understand seasonal dynamics of nutrient reserves and the role in reproductive success. Affiliations among breeding, migration, and wintering areas must be assessed in order to understand differential exposure to harvest or contaminants, and differential reproductive success and recruitment. Biologists and agencies need to gather and improve information needed to manage greater and lesser

  19. Thresholds in forest bird occurrence as a function of the amount of early-seral broadleaf forest at landscape scales

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Betts, M.G.; Hagar, J.C.; Rivers, J.W.; Alexander, J.D.; McGarigal, K.; McComb, B.C.

    2010-01-01

    Recent declines in broadleaf-dominated, early-seral forest globally as a function of intensive forest management and/or fire suppression have raised concern about the viability of populations dependent on such forest types. However, quantitative information about the strength and direction of species associations with broadleaf cover at landscape scales are rare. Uncovering such habitat relationships is essential for understanding the demography of species and in developing sound conservation strategies. It is particularly important to detect points in habitat reduction where rates of population decline may accelerate or the likelihood of species occurrence drops rapidly (i.e., thresholds). Here, we use a large avian point-count data set (N = 4375) from southwestern and northwestern Oregon along with segmented logistic regression to test for thresholds in forest bird occurrence as a function of broadleaf forest and early-seral broadleaf forest at local (150-m radius) and landscape (500–2000-m radius) scales. All 12 bird species examined showed positive responses to either broadleaf forest in general, and/or early-seral broadleaf forest. However, regional variation in species response to these conditions was high. We found considerable evidence for landscape thresholds in bird species occurrence as a function of broadleaf cover; threshold models received substantially greater support than linear models for eight of 12 species. Landscape thresholds in broadleaf forest ranged broadly from 1.35% to 24.55% mean canopy cover. Early-seral broadleaf thresholds tended to be much lower (0.22–1.87%). We found a strong negative relationship between the strength of species association with early-seral broadleaf forest and 42-year bird population trends; species most associated with this forest type have declined at the greatest rates. Taken together, these results provide the first support for the hypothesis that reductions in broadleaf-dominated early-seral forest due to

  20. Long-term decline of the Amazon carbon sink.

    PubMed

    Brienen, R J W; Phillips, O L; Feldpausch, T R; Gloor, E; Baker, T R; Lloyd, J; Lopez-Gonzalez, G; Monteagudo-Mendoza, A; Malhi, Y; Lewis, S L; Vásquez Martinez, R; Alexiades, M; Álvarez Dávila, E; Alvarez-Loayza, P; Andrade, A; Aragão, L E O C; Araujo-Murakami, A; Arets, E J M M; Arroyo, L; Aymard C, G A; Bánki, O S; Baraloto, C; Barroso, J; Bonal, D; Boot, R G A; Camargo, J L C; Castilho, C V; Chama, V; Chao, K J; Chave, J; Comiskey, J A; Cornejo Valverde, F; da Costa, L; de Oliveira, E A; Di Fiore, A; Erwin, T L; Fauset, S; Forsthofer, M; Galbraith, D R; Grahame, E S; Groot, N; Hérault, B; Higuchi, N; Honorio Coronado, E N; Keeling, H; Killeen, T J; Laurance, W F; Laurance, S; Licona, J; Magnussen, W E; Marimon, B S; Marimon-Junior, B H; Mendoza, C; Neill, D A; Nogueira, E M; Núñez, P; Pallqui Camacho, N C; Parada, A; Pardo-Molina, G; Peacock, J; Peña-Claros, M; Pickavance, G C; Pitman, N C A; Poorter, L; Prieto, A; Quesada, C A; Ramírez, F; Ramírez-Angulo, H; Restrepo, Z; Roopsind, A; Rudas, A; Salomão, R P; Schwarz, M; Silva, N; Silva-Espejo, J E; Silveira, M; Stropp, J; Talbot, J; ter Steege, H; Teran-Aguilar, J; Terborgh, J; Thomas-Caesar, R; Toledo, M; Torello-Raventos, M; Umetsu, R K; van der Heijden, G M F; van der Hout, P; Guimarães Vieira, I C; Vieira, S A; Vilanova, E; Vos, V A; Zagt, R J

    2015-03-19

    Atmospheric carbon dioxide records indicate that the land surface has acted as a strong global carbon sink over recent decades, with a substantial fraction of this sink probably located in the tropics, particularly in the Amazon. Nevertheless, it is unclear how the terrestrial carbon sink will evolve as climate and atmospheric composition continue to change. Here we analyse the historical evolution of the biomass dynamics of the Amazon rainforest over three decades using a distributed network of 321 plots. While this analysis confirms that Amazon forests have acted as a long-term net biomass sink, we find a long-term decreasing trend of carbon accumulation. Rates of net increase in above-ground biomass declined by one-third during the past decade compared to the 1990s. This is a consequence of growth rate increases levelling off recently, while biomass mortality persistently increased throughout, leading to a shortening of carbon residence times. Potential drivers for the mortality increase include greater climate variability, and feedbacks of faster growth on mortality, resulting in shortened tree longevity. The observed decline of the Amazon sink diverges markedly from the recent increase in terrestrial carbon uptake at the global scale, and is contrary to expectations based on models. PMID:25788097

  1. Long-term decline of the Amazon carbon sink

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brienen, R. J. W.; Phillips, O. L.; Feldpausch, T. R.; Gloor, E.; Baker, T. R.; Lloyd, J.; Lopez-Gonzalez, G.; Monteagudo-Mendoza, A.; Malhi, Y.; Lewis, S. L.; Vásquez Martinez, R.; Alexiades, M.; Álvarez Dávila, E.; Alvarez-Loayza, P.; Andrade, A.; Aragão, L. E. O. C.; Araujo-Murakami, A.; Arets, E. J. M. M.; Arroyo, L.; Aymard C., G. A.; Bánki, O. S.; Baraloto, C.; Barroso, J.; Bonal, D.; Boot, R. G. A.; Camargo, J. L. C.; Castilho, C. V.; Chama, V.; Chao, K. J.; Chave, J.; Comiskey, J. A.; Cornejo Valverde, F.; da Costa, L.; de Oliveira, E. A.; di Fiore, A.; Erwin, T. L.; Fauset, S.; Forsthofer, M.; Galbraith, D. R.; Grahame, E. S.; Groot, N.; Hérault, B.; Higuchi, N.; Honorio Coronado, E. N.; Keeling, H.; Killeen, T. J.; Laurance, W. F.; Laurance, S.; Licona, J.; Magnussen, W. E.; Marimon, B. S.; Marimon-Junior, B. H.; Mendoza, C.; Neill, D. A.; Nogueira, E. M.; Núñez, P.; Pallqui Camacho, N. C.; Parada, A.; Pardo-Molina, G.; Peacock, J.; Peña-Claros, M.; Pickavance, G. C.; Pitman, N. C. A.; Poorter, L.; Prieto, A.; Quesada, C. A.; Ramírez, F.; Ramírez-Angulo, H.; Restrepo, Z.; Roopsind, A.; Rudas, A.; Salomão, R. P.; Schwarz, M.; Silva, N.; Silva-Espejo, J. E.; Silveira, M.; Stropp, J.; Talbot, J.; Ter Steege, H.; Teran-Aguilar, J.; Terborgh, J.; Thomas-Caesar, R.; Toledo, M.; Torello-Raventos, M.; Umetsu, R. K.; van der Heijden, G. M. F.; van der Hout, P.; Guimarães Vieira, I. C.; Vieira, S. A.; Vilanova, E.; Vos, V. A.; Zagt, R. J.

    2015-03-01

    Atmospheric carbon dioxide records indicate that the land surface has acted as a strong global carbon sink over recent decades, with a substantial fraction of this sink probably located in the tropics, particularly in the Amazon. Nevertheless, it is unclear how the terrestrial carbon sink will evolve as climate and atmospheric composition continue to change. Here we analyse the historical evolution of the biomass dynamics of the Amazon rainforest over three decades using a distributed network of 321 plots. While this analysis confirms that Amazon forests have acted as a long-term net biomass sink, we find a long-term decreasing trend of carbon accumulation. Rates of net increase in above-ground biomass declined by one-third during the past decade compared to the 1990s. This is a consequence of growth rate increases levelling off recently, while biomass mortality persistently increased throughout, leading to a shortening of carbon residence times. Potential drivers for the mortality increase include greater climate variability, and feedbacks of faster growth on mortality, resulting in shortened tree longevity. The observed decline of the Amazon sink diverges markedly from the recent increase in terrestrial carbon uptake at the global scale, and is contrary to expectations based on models.

  2. Siberian Pine Decline and Mortality in Southern Siberian Mountains

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kharuk, V. I.; Im, S. T.; Oskorbin, P. A.; Petrov, I. A.; Ranson, K. J.

    2013-01-01

    The causes and resulting spatial patterns of Siberian pine mortality in eastern Kuznetzky Alatau Mountains, Siberia were analyzed based on satellite (Landsat, MODIS) and dendrochronology data. Climate variables studied included temperature, precipitation and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) drought index. Landsat data analysis showed that stand mortality was first detected in the year 2006 at an elevation of 650 m, and extended up to 900 m by the year 2012. Mortality was accompanied by a decrease in MODIS derived vegetation index (EVI).. The area of dead stands and the upper mortality line were correlated with increased drought. The uphill margin of mortality was limited by elevational precipitation gradients. Dead stands (i.e., >75% tree mortality) were located mainly on southern slopes. With respect to slope, mortality was observed within a 7 deg - 20 deg range with greatest mortality occurring on convex terrain. Tree radial incrementmeasurements correlate and were synchronous with SPEI (r sq = 0.37, r(sub s) = 80). Increasing synchrony between tree ring growth and SPEI indicates that drought has reduced the ecological niche of Siberian pine. The results also showed the primary role of drought stress on Siberian pine mortality. A secondary role may be played by bark beetles and root fungi attacks. The observed Siberian pine mortality is part of a broader phenomenon of "dark needle conifers" (DNC, i.e., Siberian pine, fir and spruce) decline and mortality in European Russia, Siberia, and the Russian Far East. All locations of DNC decline coincided with areas of observed drought increase. The results obtained are one of the first observations of drought-induced decline and mortality of DNC at the southern border of boreal forests. Meanwhile if model projections of increased aridity are correct DNC, within the southern part of its range may be replaced by drought-resistant Pinus silvestris and Larix sibirica.

  3. Climate warming threatens semi-arid forests in Inner Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    WU, X.

    2015-12-01

    A line of evidences reveal an increasing tree growth decline and tree mortality mainly attributable to climate warming and the warming-mediated changes in drought and other processes in many parts of world tropical, temperate and boreal forests. However, the growth responses to climate change of the widely distributed semi-arid forests are unclear. Here, we synthetically investigate the tree growth patterns during past decades and its interannual response to climate variations in Inner Asia combining the ground truth field survey and samplings, remote sensing observations and climate data. We identified a pervasive tree growth decline since mid-1990s in semi-arid forests in Inner Asia. The widely observed tree growth decline is dominantly attributable to warming-induced water stress during pre- and early growing season. Tree growth of semi-arid forests in Inner Asia is particularly susceptible to spring warming and has been suffering a prolonged growth limitation in recent decades due to spring warming-mediated water conditions. Additionally, we identified a much slower growth rate in younger trees and a lack of tree regeneration in these semi-arid forests. The widely observed forest growth reduction and lack of tree regeneration over semi-arid forests in Inner Asia could predictably exert great effects on forest structure, regionally/globally biophysical and biochemical processes and the feedbacks between biosphere and atmosphere. Notably, further increases in forest stress and tree mortality could be reasonably expected, especially in context of the increase frequency and severity of high temperature and heat waves and changes in forest disturbances, potentially driving the eventual regional loss of current semi-arid forests. Given the potential risks of climate induced forest dieback, increased management attention to adaptation options for enhancing forest resistance and resilience to projected climate stress can be expected. However, the functionally realistic

  4. Climate Warming Threatens Semi-arid Forests in Inner Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    WU, X.; Liu, H.; Qi, Z.; Li, X.

    2014-12-01

    A line of evidences reveal an increasing tree growth decline and tree mortality mainly attributable to climate warming and the warming-mediated changes in drought and other processes (such as fire and insect dynamics) in many parts of world tropical, temperate and boreal forests. However, the growth responses to climate change of the widely distributed semi-arid forests are unclear. Here, we synthetically investigate the tree growth patterns during past decades and its interannual response to climate variations in Inner Asia combining the ground truth field survey and samplings, remote sensing observations and climate data. We identified a pervasive tree growth decline since mid-1990s in semi-arid forests in Inner Asia. The widely observed tree growth decline is dominantly attributable to warming-induced water stress during pre- and early growing season. Tree growth of semi-arid forests in Inner Asia is particularly susceptible to spring warming and has been suffering a prolonged growth limitation in recent decades due to spring warming-mediated water conditions. Additionally, we identified a much slower growth rate in younger trees and a lack of tree regeneration in these semi-arid forests. The widely observed forest growth reduction and lack of tree regeneration over semi-arid forests in Inner Asia could predictably exert great effects on forest structure, regionally/globally biophysical and biochemical processes and the feedbacks between biosphere and atmosphere. Notably, further increases in forest stress and tree mortality could be reasonably expected, especially in context of the increase frequency and severity of high temperature and heat waves and changes in forest disturbances, potentially driving the eventual regional loss of current semi-arid forests. Given the potential risks of climate induced forest dieback, increased management attention to adaptation options for enhancing forest resistance and resilience to projected climate stress can be expected

  5. Atrial Fibrillation, Cognitive Decline And Dementia

    PubMed Central

    Alonso, Alvaro; Arenas de Larriva, Antonio P.

    2016-01-01

    Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common cardiac arrhythmia. Growing evidence supports a role for AF as a risk factor for cognitive decline and dementia. In this review, we summarize epidemiologic observations linking AF with cognitive outcomes, describe potential mechanisms, and explore the impact of AF treatments on cognitive decline and dementia. Community-based, observational studies show a consistent higher rate of cognitive decline and risk of dementia in persons with AF. These associations are partly due to the increased risk of clinical stroke in AF, but other mechanisms, including incidence of silent cerebral infarcts, microbleeds, and cerebral hypoperfusion, are likely additional contributors. Adequate oral anticoagulation and improved management of the overall cardiovascular risk profile in persons with AF offer the promise of reducing the impact of AF on cognitive decline and dementia. PMID:27547248

  6. A 70-year perspective on tropical forest regeneration.

    PubMed

    Abbas, Sawaid; Nichol, Janet E; Fischer, Gunter A

    2016-02-15

    Forested areas of the world decreased by 129 million hectare during the past quarter-century, and only 35 % of remainder is primary forest. Secondary forests are therefore relatively more important for biodiversity conservation, catchment protection, climate control, and the ecological services they provide. Many governments expend large resources on afforestation projects, which may not be supported by objective data on rates and pathways of natural succession in secondary forest. This paper describes a 70-year succession of tropical forest in Hong Kong under different management regimes including afforestation programs, frequent fire, and fire protection. From complete destruction of its forest during the Second World War, forest has established rapidly in areas where a shrub cover was able to colonize. The practice of afforestation as a nursery stage on degraded hillsides, for establishment of forest seedlings by natural invasion is not supported by the evidence, as when the native Pinus massoniana plantations were eliminated by disease during the 1970s, no forest or woody species were seen in the areas affected. In fact there was a reversion to grassland, which persisted there for almost three decades, until recent shrub invasion. The fastest period of forest regeneration, at 10.9% annually between 1989 and 2001, occurred when shrubland edge was greatest and forest was able to colonize across interfluves between linear-shaped riparian shrublands in valley bottoms. After 2001, succession to forest was slower, at 7.8% annually, as forest patches consolidated and edge habitats reduced. Effective forest management policies could include seeding of native shrubs extending linearly from established forest, to maximize edge length between woody species and grasslands, and planting of late successional species in areas where forest pioneers are in decline. PMID:26674683

  7. Fire Regime and Stability of the West African Tropical Forest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dwomoh, F. K.; Wimberly, M. C.

    2014-12-01

    Ecological discussions concerning alternative stable states theory suggest that tropical forest ecosystems could shift to qualitatively different alternative states upon catastrophic disturbances which exceed forest resilience. In this regard, it is expected that changes in the fire regime facilitated by climate and land use alterations could lead to rapid forest cover loss, creating conditions likely to push tropical forests to tipping points, beyond which forest resilience is lost. However, there is a dearth of empirical examples of fire-driven alternative stable states involving tropical forests. Key among the constraints for this scarcity are the requirements for large scale disturbances and long-term data, both of which are scarce. However, in the West African tropical forest (referred to as the Upper Guinean forest, UGF) a number of protected areas were impacted by large fire events during the 1980s El Niño-driven droughts, providing an opportunity for testing hypotheses concerning alternative stable states in tropical forest ecosystems. This paper aims to demonstrate fire-driven alternative stable states in the deciduous forest zone of the UGF by analyzing fire activity and forest recovery in fire-impacted forest reserves. We analyzed historical Landsat and MODIS imagery to map and quantify vegetation cover change, fire frequency and fire severity patterns. Our analyses suggest that the historic fires in the 1980s were catastrophic enough to remove forest canopy, thereby triggering a landscape-scale alternative stable states. Forest cover declined substantially becoming replaced by a novel ecosystem with low tree density. Our results also indicate the establishment of a positive fire-vegetation feedback effect, such that the new vegetation which displaced severely burned forests is more pyrogenic and maintained through frequent burns. This study expands our knowledge on the vulnerability of tropical forest ecosystems to state transitions in response to fire

  8. Predicting declines in avian species richness under nonrandom patterns of habitat loss in a neotropical landscape.

    PubMed

    Rompré, Ghislain; Robinson, W Douglas; Desrochers, André; Angehr, George

    2009-09-01

    One of the key concerns in conservation is to document and predict the effects of habitat loss on species richness. To do this, the species-area relationship (SAR) is frequently used. That relationship assumes random patterns of habitat loss and species distributions. In nature, however, species distribution patterns are usually nonrandom, influenced by biotic and abiotic factors. Likewise, socioeconomic and environmental factors influence habitat loss and are not randomly distributed across landscapes. We used a recently developed SAR model that accounts for nonrandomness to predict rates of bird species loss in fragmented forests of the Panama Canal region, an area that was historically covered in forest but now has 53% forest cover. Predicted species loss was higher than that predicted by the standard SAR. Furthermore, a species loss threshold was evident when remaining forest cover declined by 25%. This level of forest cover corresponds to 40% of the historical forest cover, and our model predicts rapid species loss past that threshold. This study illustrates the importance of considering patterns of species distributions and realistic habitat loss scenarios to develop better estimates of losses in species richness. Forecasts of tropical biodiversity loss generated from simple species-area relationships may underestimate actual losses because nonrandom patterns of species distributions and habitat loss are probably not unique to the Panama Canal region. PMID:19769107

  9. Quantifying widespread canopy cover decline through the course of a beetle kill epidemic in Colorado with remote sensing of snow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baker, E. H.; Raleigh, M. S.; Molotch, N. P.

    2014-12-01

    Since the mid-1990s, outbreaks of aggressive bark beetle species have caused extensive forest morality across 600,000 km2 of North-American forests, killing over 17,800 km2 of forest in Colorado alone. This mortality has resulted in a widespread, spatially heterogeneous decline of forest canopies, which in turn exerts strong controls on the accumulation and melt of the snowpack. In the Western United States, where approximately 70-80% of total annual runoff originates as mountain snowmelt, it is important to monitor and quantify changes in forest canopy in snow-dominated catchments. To quantify annual values of forest canopy cover, this research develops a metric from time series of daily fractional snow covered area (FSCA) from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow covered area and grain size (MODSCAG) algorithm. In areas where soil and rock are completely snow-covered, a land pixel is composed only of forest canopy and snow. Following a snowfall event, FSCA initially rises rapidly, as snow is intercepted in the canopy, and then declines, as snow unloads from the canopy. The lower of these local minima form a threshold representative of snow-free canopy conditions, which serves as a spatially explicit metric of forest canopy. Investigation of a site in southern Colorado with over 40% spruce beetle mortality shows a statistically significant decrease of canopy cover, from 76 (±4)% pre-infestation to 55 (±8)% post-infestation (t=-5.1, p<0.01). Additionally, this yearly parameterization of forest canopy is well correlated (ρ=0.76, p<0.01) with an independent product of yearly crown mortality derived from U.S. Forest Service Aerial Detection Surveys. Future work will examine this relationship across varied ecologic settings and geographic locations, and incorporate field measurements of species-specific canopy change after beetle kill.

  10. Problems Associated with Declining National Oil Production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jackson, J. S.

    2009-12-01

    Forecasts of peak oil production have focussed on the global impacts of declining production. Meanwhile, national oil production has declined in 20 countries, leading to local problems that receive little comment outside of the effected regions. Two problems deserve wider recognition: declining state revenues and fuel substitution. Most oil producing countries with large reserves adopted licensing practices that provide significant revenues to the host governments such that oil revenues generate from 40 to 80 percent of total government funds. Typically these governments allocate a fraction of this revenue to their state oil companies, utilizing the remainder for other activities. As oil revenues decline with falling production, host governments face a dilemma: either to increase state oil company budgets in order to stem the decline, or to starve the state oil company while maintaining other government programs. The declining oil revenues in these states can significantly reduce the government's ability to address important national issues. Mexico, Indonesia, and Yemen illustrate this situation in its early phases. Fuel substitution occurs whenever one fuel proves less expensive than another. The substitution of coal for wood in the eighteenth century and oil for coal in the twentieth century are classic examples. China and India appear to be at peak oil production, while their economies generate increasing demand for energy. Both countries are substituting coal and natural gas for oil with attendant environmental impacts. Coal-to-liquids projects are proposed in in both China, which will require significant water resources if they are executed. These examples suggest that forecasting the impact of peak oil at a regional level requires more than an assessment of proven-probable-possible reserves and a forecast of supply-demand scenarios. A range of government responses to declining oil income scenarios must also be considered, together with scenarios describing

  11. A Decline in Solar Cycle Strength

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chapman, G. A.; de Toma, G.; Cookson, A.

    2013-12-01

    The strength of solar activity appears to be in decline over the past three solar cycles. The decline is seen in sunspot area, facular/network area and the sunspot number. In addition, cycle 24 has been unusual in that many, if not most, of the bipolar sunspot groups have had only a leader spot with no follower spot. This research was partially supported by grants from NSF and NASA. Corrected spot area from CFDT1 at the San Fernando Observatory

  12. Dispersal of forest insects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mcmanus, M. L.

    1979-01-01

    Dispersal flights of selected species of forest insects which are associated with periodic outbreaks of pests that occur over large contiguous forested areas are discussed. Gypsy moths, spruce budworms, and forest tent caterpillars were studied for their massive migrations in forested areas. Results indicate that large dispersals into forested areas are due to the females, except in the case of the gypsy moth.

  13. Seasonal evapotranspiration patterns in mangrove forests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barr, Jordan G.; DeLonge, Marcia S.; Fuentes, Jose D.

    2014-04-01

    Diurnal and seasonal controls on water vapor fluxes were investigated in a subtropical mangrove forest in Everglades National Park, Florida. Energy partitioning between sensible and latent heat fluxes was highly variable during the 2004-2005 study period. During the dry season, the mangrove forest behaved akin to a semiarid ecosystem as most of the available energy was partitioned into sensible heat, which gave Bowen ratio values exceeding 1.0 and minimum latent heat fluxes of 5 MJ d-1. In contrast, during the wet season the mangrove forest acted as a well-watered, broadleaved deciduous forest, with Bowen ratio values of 0.25 and latent heat fluxes reaching 18 MJ d-1. During the dry season, high salinity levels (> 30 parts per thousand, ppt) caused evapotranspiration to decline and correspondingly resulted in reduced canopy conductance. From multiple linear regression, daily average canopy conductance to water vapor declined with increasing salinity, vapor pressure deficit, and daily sums of solar irradiance but increased with air temperature and friction velocity. Using these relationships, appropriately modified Penman-Monteith and Priestley-Taylor models reliably reproduced seasonal trends in daily evapotranspiration. Such numerical models, using site-specific parameters, are crucial for constructing seasonal water budgets, constraining hydrological models, and driving regional climate models over mangrove forests.

  14. Red spruce decline in the northeastern US: hypotheses regarding the role of acid rain

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, A.H.

    1983-11-01

    Red spruce have died in abnormal numbers in the high elevation forests of New York and New England during the past two decades while spruce in the southern Appalachians remain healthy. Investigations of insect damage, fungai pathogens, successional dynamics, competitive status, climate and weather patterns, and possible pollutant effects indicate that the decline was triggered by abiotic stress during the dry years of the 1960s. Tree response, as recorded in the pattern of annual rings, and the wide range of soil conditions in which spruce are declining, suggest drought or dry summers as key factors. Hypotheses regarding the role of acid deposition induced stress have been offered, but at present there is not evidence which clearly links acid deposition to spruce decline. Indirect effects of acid deposition on soils, direct effects of acid deposition on foliage, and interactions of acid deposition and drought stress are possible but unproven pathways by which acid deposition could be involved. 23 references, 6 figures, 1 table.

  15. Forest environmental investments and implications for climate change mitigation.

    PubMed

    Alig, Ralph J; Bair, Lucas S

    2006-01-01

    Forest environmental conditions are affected by climate change, but investments in forest environmental quality can be used as part of the climate change mitigation strategy. A key question involving the potential use of forests to store more carbon as part of climate change mitigation is the impact of forest investments on the timing and quantity of forest volumes that affect carbon storage. Using an economic optimization model, we project levels of U.S. forest volumes as indicators of carbon storage for a wide range of private forest investment scenarios. Results show that economic opportunities exist to further intensify timber management on some hectares and reduce the average timber rotation length such that the national volume of standing timber stocks could be reduced relative to projections reflecting historical trends. The national amount of timber volume is projected to increase over the next 50 yr, but then is projected to decline if private owners follow an economic optimization path, such as with more forest type conversions and shorter timber rotations. With perfect foresight, future forest investments can affect current timber harvest levels, with intertemporal linkages based on adjustments through markets. Forest investments that boost regenerated timber yields per hectare would act to enhance ecosystem services (e.g., forest carbon storage) if they are related to the rate of growth and extent of growing stock inventory. PMID:16825459

  16. Forest herb layer response to long-term light deficit along a forest developmental series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plue, J.; Van Gils, B.; De Schrijver, A.; Peppler-Lisbach, C.; Verheyen, K.; Hermy, M.

    2013-11-01

    Temperate deciduous forest communities are slow-changing systems, with herbaceous understorey communities displaying a delayed response to overstorey canopy and light dynamics. While light availability constrains herbaceous understorey diversity and composition in space and time, its response in the long-term absence of light has seldom been quantified, particularly as it is often confounded by covariation in soil conditions. We studied a developmental high-forest series in two widespread NW-European temperate deciduous forest communities with different dominant canopy tree species: Stellario-Carpinetum (Oak-hornbeam canopy) and Milio-Fagetum (Beech canopy). All plots had soil conditions which were not significantly different, enabling investigation into the direct effects of the long-term absence of light on the herbaceous understorey, disentangled from the confounding effects of soil variation. Plant species richness measures declined with canopy cover continuity in the herb layer of the oak-hornbeam stands, whereas richness in the herb layer of the beech stands displayed a unimodal response. Nonetheless, in both plant communities, species richness and closed-forest species richness were negatively affected by the extended absence of light in stands with the longest period of continuous canopy cover. The long-term limitation or decline in quantitative and qualitative light availability as a result of extended periods of canopy cover was shown to be the primary driver behind losses in alpha-diversity, community composition turn-over and individual species dynamics. Heliophilous species were lost from both communities, while closed-forest species also declined, as a direct consequence of the prolonged period without ample light on the forest floor. This study demonstrates how the herb layer is affected by the absence of light on the forest floor mediated by long periods of continuous canopy cover. Despite different temporal responses in herb layer richness and

  17. NITROGEN FLUX FROM WEST CASCADE RANGE HEADWATER STREAMS DRAINING FORESTS ALONG A SUCCESSIONAL GRADIENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Conceptual models predict that unpolluted, aggrading forest ecosystems tightly retain available nitrogen (N) until declining productivity by mature trees reduces the demand for essential nutrients and export increases to equal N inputs. Short-term nitrate loss following disturban...

  18. Suggestions for Forest Conservation Policy under Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choe, H.; Thorne, J. H.; Lee, D. K.; Seo, C.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change and the destruction of natural habitats by land-use change are two main factors in decreasing terrestrial biodiversity. Studying land-use and climate change and their impact under different scenarios can help suggest policy directions for future events. This study explores the spatial results of different land use and climate models on the extent of species rich areas in South Korea. We built land use models of forest conversion and created four 2050 scenarios: (1) a loss trend following current levels, resulting in 15.5% lost; (2) similar loss, but with forest conservation in areas with suitable future climates; (3) a reduction of forest loss by 50%; and (4) a combination of preservation of forest climate refugia and overall reduction of loss by 50%. Forest climate refugia were identified through the use of species distribution models run on 1,031 forest plant species to project current and 2050 distributions. We calculated change in species richness under four climate projections, permitting an assessment of forest refugia zones. We then crossed the four land use models with the climate-driven change in species richness. Forest areas predominantly convert to agricultural areas, while climate-suitable extents for forest plants decline and move northward, especially to higher elevations. Scenario 2, that has the higher level of deforestation but protects future species rich areas, conserves nearly as much future biodiversity as scenario 3, which reduced deforestation rates by 50%. This points to the importance of including biogeographic climate dynamics in forest policy. Scenario 4 was the most effective at conserving forest biodiversity. We suggest conserving forest areas with suitable climates for biodiversity conservation and the establishment of monoculture plantations targeted to areas where species richness will decline based on our results.

  19. Global phytoplankton decline over the past century.

    PubMed

    Boyce, Daniel G; Lewis, Marlon R; Worm, Boris

    2010-07-29

    In the oceans, ubiquitous microscopic phototrophs (phytoplankton) account for approximately half the production of organic matter on Earth. Analyses of satellite-derived phytoplankton concentration (available since 1979) have suggested decadal-scale fluctuations linked to climate forcing, but the length of this record is insufficient to resolve longer-term trends. Here we combine available ocean transparency measurements and in situ chlorophyll observations to estimate the time dependence of phytoplankton biomass at local, regional and global scales since 1899. We observe declines in eight out of ten ocean regions, and estimate a global rate of decline of approximately 1% of the global median per year. Our analyses further reveal interannual to decadal phytoplankton fluctuations superimposed on long-term trends. These fluctuations are strongly correlated with basin-scale climate indices, whereas long-term declining trends are related to increasing sea surface temperatures. We conclude that global phytoplankton concentration has declined over the past century; this decline will need to be considered in future studies of marine ecosystems, geochemical cycling, ocean circulation and fisheries. PMID:20671703

  20. Subjective Cognitive Decline: Self and Informant Comparisons

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Kewei; Locke, Dona E.C.; Lee, Wendy; Roontiva, Auttawut; Bandy, Dan; Fleisher, Adam S.; Reiman, Eric M.

    2013-01-01

    Background It is unclear whether self or informant-based subjective cognition better distinguishes emotional factors from early stage Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Methods 447 healthy members of the Arizona Apolipoprotein E (APOE) Cohort and their informants completed both the self and informant paired Multidimensional Assessment of Neurodegenerative Symptoms questionnaire (MANS). Results 30.6% of members and 26.2% of informants endorsed decline on the MANS. Both self and informant-based decliners had higher scores of psychological distress and slightly lower cognitive scores than nondecliners. Over the next 6.7 years, 20 developed mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Converters were older at entry than nonconverters (63.8[7.0] vs 58.8[7.3] years, p=.003), 85% were APOE e4 carriers (p<.0001), and they self-endorsed decline earlier than informants (58.9[39.2] vs 28.0[40.4] months before MCI; p=.002). Conclusions Both self and informant based subjective decline correlated with greater psychological distress, and slightly lower cognitive performance. Those with incident MCI generally self-endorsed decline earlier than informants. PMID:23562429

  1. Periodontitis and Cognitive Decline in Alzheimer's Disease.

    PubMed

    Ide, Mark; Harris, Marina; Stevens, Annette; Sussams, Rebecca; Hopkins, Viv; Culliford, David; Fuller, James; Ibbett, Paul; Raybould, Rachel; Thomas, Rhodri; Puenter, Ursula; Teeling, Jessica; Perry, V Hugh; Holmes, Clive

    2016-01-01

    Periodontitis is common in the elderly and may become more common in Alzheimer's disease because of a reduced ability to take care of oral hygiene as the disease progresses. Elevated antibodies to periodontal bacteria are associated with an increased systemic pro-inflammatory state. Elsewhere raised serum pro-inflammatory cytokines have been associated with an increased rate of cognitive decline in Alzheimer's disease. We hypothesized that periodontitis would be associated with increased dementia severity and a more rapid cognitive decline in Alzheimer's disease. We aimed to determine if periodontitis in Alzheimer's disease is associated with both increased dementia severity and cognitive decline, and an increased systemic pro inflammatory state. In a six month observational cohort study 60 community dwelling participants with mild to moderate Alzheimer's Disease were cognitively assessed and a blood sample taken for systemic inflammatory markers. Dental health was assessed by a dental hygienist, blind to cognitive outcomes. All assessments were repeated at six months. The presence of periodontitis at baseline was not related to baseline cognitive state but was associated with a six fold increase in the rate of cognitive decline as assessed by the ADAS-cog over a six month follow up period. Periodontitis at baseline was associated with a relative increase in the pro-inflammatory state over the six month follow up period. Our data showed that periodontitis is associated with an increase in cognitive decline in Alzheimer's Disease, independent to baseline cognitive state, which may be mediated through effects on systemic inflammation. PMID:26963387

  2. Relationships between net primary productivity and forest stand age in U.S. forests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Liming; Chen, Jing M.; Pan, Yude; Birdsey, Richard; Kattge, Jens

    2012-09-01

    Net primary productivity (NPP) is a key flux in the terrestrial ecosystem carbon balance, as it summarizes the autotrophic input into the system. Forest NPP varies predictably with stand age, and quantitative information on the NPP-age relationship for different regions and forest types is therefore fundamentally important for forest carbon cycle modeling. We used four terms to calculate NPP: annual accumulation of live biomass, annual mortality of aboveground and belowground biomass, foliage turnover to soil, and fine root turnover in soil. For U.S. forests the first two terms can be reliably estimated from the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data. Although the last two terms make up more than 50% of total NPP, direct estimates of these fluxes are highly uncertain due to limited availability of empirical relationships between aboveground biomass and foliage or fine root biomass. To resolve this problem, we developed a new approach using maps of leaf area index (LAI) and forest age at 1 km resolution to derive LAI-age relationships for 18 major forest type groups in the USA. These relationships were then used to derive foliage turnover estimates using species-specific trait data for leaf specific area and longevity. These turnover estimates were also used to derive the fine root turnover based on reliable relationships between fine root and foliage turnover. This combination of FIA data, remote sensing, and plant trait information allows for the first empirical and reliable NPP-age relationships for different forest types in the USA. The relationships show a general temporal pattern of rapid increase in NPP in the young ages of forest type groups, peak growth in the middle ages, and slow decline in the mature ages. The predicted patterns are influenced by climate conditions and can be affected by forest management. These relationships were further generalized to three major forest biomes for use by continental-scale carbon cycle models in conjunction with

  3. THE HEALTH EFFECTS OF ECONOMIC DECLINE

    PubMed Central

    Catalano, Ralph; Goldman-Mellor, Sidra; Saxton, Katherine; Margerison-Zilko, Claire; Subbaraman, Meenakshi; LeWinn, Kaja; Anderson, Elizabeth

    2013-01-01

    The recent recession and lingering high unemployment will likely lead to a burst of research studying the health effects of economic decline. We aim to inform that work by summarizing empirical research concerned with those effects. We separate the studies into groups defined by questions asked, mechanisms invoked, and outcomes studied. We conclude that although much research shows that undesirable job and financial experiences increase the risk of psychological and behavioral disorder, many other suspected associations remain poorly studied or unsupported. The intuition that mortality increases when the economy declines, for example, appears wrong. We note that the research informs public health programming by identifying risk factors, such as job loss, made more frequent by economic decline. The promise that the research would identify health costs and benefits of economic policy choices, however, remains unfulfilled and will likely remain so without stronger theory and greater methodological agreement. PMID:21054175

  4. The Continuing Slow Decline of AG Pegasi

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kenyon, Scott J.; Proga, Daniel; Keyes, Charles D.

    2001-07-01

    We analyze optical and ultraviolet observations of the symbiotic binary AG Pegasi acquired during 1992-1997. The bolometric luminosity of the hot component declined by a factor of 2-3 from 1980-1985 to 1997. Since 1992, the effective temperature of the hot component may have declined by 10%-20%, but this decline is comparable to the measurement errors. Optical observations of Hβ and He I emission show a clear illumination effect, where high-energy photons from the hot component ionize the outer atmosphere of the red giant. Simple illumination models generally account for the magnitude of the optical and ultraviolet emission-line fluxes. High-ionization emission lines-[Ne V], [Mg V], and [Fe VII]-suggest mechanical heating in the outer portions of the photoionized red giant wind. This emission probably originates in a low-density region ~30-300 AU from the central binary.

  5. Managing declining yields from ageing tea plantations.

    PubMed

    Kibblewhite, Mark G; Prakash, Sudhir; Hazarika, Mridul; Burgess, Paul J; Sakrabani, Ruben

    2014-06-01

    Strong growth in the demand for tea requires further increases in the productivity of plantations. Declining or stagnant yields are commonly observed in older plantations. Possible controlling factors for yield decline are reviewed including ageing of plants, chronic disease and sub-optimal soil conditions such as excess soil acidity and low soil organic matter. Management options for addressing these factors are evaluated, including replanting. A systematic approach to decision-making about replanting is presented. Practice for replanting is reviewed and it is concluded that evidence to support a general case for replanting is limited, unless based on the introduction of more productive clones and/or better plant spacing. PMID:24464583

  6. Neural mechanisms of ageing and cognitive decline

    PubMed Central

    Bishop, Nicholas A.; Lu, Tao; Yankner, Bruce A.

    2010-01-01

    During the past century, treatments for the diseases of youth and middle age have helped raise life expectancy significantly. However, cognitive decline has emerged as one of the greatest health threats of old age, with nearly 50% of adults over the age of 85 afflicted with Alzheimer’s disease. Developing therapeutic interventions for such conditions demands a greater understanding of the processes underlying normal and pathological brain ageing. Recent advances in the biology of ageing in model organisms, together with molecular and systems-level studies of the brain, are beginning to shed light on these mechanisms and their potential roles in cognitive decline. PMID:20336135

  7. Twentieth-century shifts in forest structure in California: Denser forests, smaller trees, and increased dominance of oaks

    PubMed Central

    McIntyre, Patrick J.; Thorne, James H.; Dolanc, Christopher R.; Flint, Alan L.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Kelly, Maggi; Ackerly, David D.

    2015-01-01

    We document changes in forest structure between historical (1930s) and contemporary (2000s) surveys of California vegetation through comparisons of tree abundance and size across the state and within several ecoregions. Across California, tree density in forested regions increased by 30% between the two time periods, whereas forest biomass in the same regions declined, as indicated by a 19% reduction in basal area. These changes reflect a demographic shift in forest structure: larger trees (>61 cm diameter at breast height) have declined, whereas smaller trees (<30 cm) have increased. Large tree declines were found in all surveyed regions of California, whereas small tree increases were found in every region except the south and central coast. Large tree declines were more severe in areas experiencing greater increases in climatic water deficit since the 1930s, based on a hydrologic model of water balance for historical climates through the 20th century. Forest composition in California in the last century has also shifted toward increased dominance by oaks relative to pines, a pattern consistent with warming and increased water stress, and also with paleohistoric shifts in vegetation in California over the last 150,000 y. PMID:25605888

  8. Twentieth-century shifts in forest structure in California: Denser forests, smaller trees, and increased dominance of oaks.

    PubMed

    McIntyre, Patrick J; Thorne, James H; Dolanc, Christopher R; Flint, Alan L; Flint, Lorraine E; Kelly, Maggi; Ackerly, David D

    2015-02-01

    We document changes in forest structure between historical (1930s) and contemporary (2000s) surveys of California vegetation through comparisons of tree abundance and size across the state and within several ecoregions. Across California, tree density in forested regions increased by 30% between the two time periods, whereas forest biomass in the same regions declined, as indicated by a 19% reduction in basal area. These changes reflect a demographic shift in forest structure: larger trees (>61 cm diameter at breast height) have declined, whereas smaller trees (<30 cm) have increased. Large tree declines were found in all surveyed regions of California, whereas small tree increases were found in every region except the south and central coast. Large tree declines were more severe in areas experiencing greater increases in climatic water deficit since the 1930s, based on a hydrologic model of water balance for historical climates through the 20th century. Forest composition in California in the last century has also shifted toward increased dominance by oaks relative to pines, a pattern consistent with warming and increased water stress, and also with paleohistoric shifts in vegetation in California over the last 150,000 y. PMID:25605888

  9. An inventory-based approach for estimating the managed China's forest biomass carbon stock

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, M.; Yu, G.; Yue, X.; Wang, J.

    2014-12-01

    China's forests cover a large area and have the characteristics of young age thus have the potential for a major role in mitigate the rate of global climate change. On the basis of forest inventory data and spatial distribution of forest stand age and forest type, we developed an approach for estimating yearly China's forest biomass carbon stocks change. Using this approach, we estimated the changes of forest carbon stock due to management practice and forest age structure change, respectively, and predicted China's future carbon potential based on national forest expansion plan. We also discussed sustainable harvesting intensity for the expanded forest of 2020. The spatial pattern of forest biomass carbon density in 2001 showed high in southwestern and northeastern areas, and low in the other regions, meanwhile the high C sinks appeared in the southwestern and northeastern young-aged forests and low in the southwestern and northeastern old-aged forests. The total forest biomass C stock of China increased from 6.06 Pg C in 2001 to 7.88 Pg C in 2013, giving a total increase of 1.82 Pg C, in which 0.45 Pg C is caused by forest expansion. The average C sink during 2002-2013 was 151.83 Tg C, in which 75.5% is the results of forest growth and 24.5% is caused by forest expansion. With the assumption of China's forest area will expand by 40 million hectares from 2006 to 2020, the forest C stock in 2020 is predicted as 9.04 Pg C. Harvesting intensity experiments conducted on the expanded forest of 2020 shown higher harvesting level will lead to decline in forest biomass in long term. The harvesting level of 2% is an optimal harvesting intensity for sustainable development of China's forest resources.

  10. Quantifying the detrimental impacts of land-use and management change on European forest bird populations.

    PubMed

    Wade, Amy S I; Barov, Boris; Burfield, Ian J; Gregory, Richard D; Norris, Ken; Butler, Simon J

    2013-01-01

    The ecological impacts of changing forest management practices in Europe are poorly understood despite European forests being highly managed. Furthermore, the effects of potential drivers of forest biodiversity decline are rarely considered in concert, thus limiting effective conservation or sustainable forest management. We present a trait-based framework that we use to assess the detrimental impact of multiple land-use and management changes in forests on bird populations across Europe. Major changes to forest habitats occurring in recent decades, and their impact on resource availability for birds were identified. Risk associated with these changes for 52 species of forest birds, defined as the proportion of each species' key resources detrimentally affected through changes in abundance and/or availability, was quantified and compared to their pan-European population growth rates between 1980 and 2009. Relationships between risk and population growth were found to be significantly negative, indicating that resource loss in European forests is an important driver of decline for both resident and migrant birds. Our results demonstrate that coarse quantification of resource use and ecological change can be valuable in understanding causes of biodiversity decline, and thus in informing conservation strategy and policy. Such an approach has good potential to be extended for predictive use in assessing the impact of possible future changes to forest management and to develop more precise indicators of forest health. PMID:23704997

  11. Montana's forest resources. Forest Service resource bulletin

    SciTech Connect

    Conner, R.C.; O'Brien, R.A.

    1993-09-01

    The report includes highlights of the forest resource in Montana as of 1989. Also the study describes the extent, condition, and location of the State's forests with particular emphasis on timberland. Includes statistical tables, area by land classes, ownership, and forest type, growing stock and sawtimber volumes, growth, mortality, and removals for timberland.

  12. Biology of amphibians and reptiles in old-growth forests in the Pacific northwest. Forest Service general technical report

    SciTech Connect

    Blaustein, A.R.; Beatty, J.J.; Olson, D.H.; Storm, R.M.

    1995-03-01

    The amphibian and reptile fauna of older forest ecosystems in the Pacific Northwest includes several endemic species, species with unique behavioral and ecological characteristics, and species whose populations have been in decline in recent years. The authors review the biology of these species and include information on their distinguishing characteristics, behavior, and ecology. Herpetofaunal associations with forest characteristic and the impact of habitat loss are addressed.

  13. Recent Declines in Induction of Labor by Gestational Age

    MedlinePlus

    ... rates at 38 weeks of gestation declined for all maternal age groups under 40. Trends in induction ... 38 weeks declined in nearly three-quarters of all states. The largest declines in labor induction for ...

  14. Warm summer nights and the growth decline of shore pine in Southeast Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sullivan, Patrick F.; Mulvey, Robin L.; Brownlee, Annalis H.; Barrett, Tara M.; Pattison, Robert R.

    2015-12-01

    Shore pine, which is a subspecies of lodgepole pine, was a widespread and dominant tree species in Southeast Alaska during the early Holocene. At present, the distribution of shore pine in Alaska is restricted to coastal bogs and fens, likely by competition with Sitka spruce and Western hemlock. Monitoring of permanent plots as part of the United States Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis program identified a recent loss of shore pine biomass in Southeast Alaska. The apparent loss of shore pine is concerning, because its presence adds a vertical dimension to coastal wetlands, which are the richest plant communities of the coastal temperate rainforest in Alaska. In this study, we examined the shore pine tree-ring record from a newly established plot network throughout Southeast Alaska and explored climate-growth relationships. We found a steep decline in shore pine growth from the early 1960s to the present. Random Forest regression revealed a strong correlation between the decline in shore pine growth and the rise in growing season diurnal minimum air temperature. Warm summer nights, cool daytime temperatures and a reduced diurnal temperature range are associated with greater cloud cover in Southeast Alaska. This suite of conditions could lead to unfavorable tree carbon budgets (reduced daytime photosynthesis and greater nighttime respiration) and/or favor infection by foliar pathogens, such as Dothistroma needle blight, which has recently caused widespread tree mortality on lodgepole pine plantations in British Columbia. Further field study that includes experimental manipulation (e.g., fungicide application) will be necessary to identify the proximal cause(s) of the growth decline. In the meantime, we anticipate continuation of the shore pine growth decline in Southeast Alaska.

  15. Large ontogenetic declines in intra-crown leaf area index in two temperate deciduous tree species.

    PubMed

    Nock, C A; Caspersen, J P; Thomas, S C

    2008-03-01

    The widespread occurrence of age-related changes in leaf morphology and allocation suggests that the leaf area index of individual trees (intra-crown LAI) may decline late in ontogeny. We used direct, within-canopy measurements to quantify the LAI of canopy trees with exposed crowns of two temperate deciduous species. Intra-crown LAI declined from approximately 7 to 4 in Acer saccharum, and from approximately 9.5 to 6.5 in Betula alleghaniensis, as tree size increased (from 15 to 72 cm diameter at breast height [dbh]). For A. saccharum, age (which varied from 30 to 160 years) was a significantly better predictor of LAI decline than dbh. We also modeled the effect of ontogenetic declines in LAI on understory light availability and found that light transmission increases significantly as canopy trees grow and mature. Our results thus suggest that gradual declines in LAI with tree age may play an important and overlooked role in contributing to the heterogeneity of sub-canopy light regimes in mature forests. PMID:18459337

  16. Declining fertility on the frontier: the Ecuadorian Amazon.

    PubMed

    Carr, David L; Pan, William K Y; Bilsborrow, Richard E

    2006-09-01

    This paper examines farm and household characteristics associated with a rapid fertility decline in a forest frontier of the Ecuadorian Amazon. The Amazon basin and other rainforests in the tropics are among the last frontiers in the ongoing global fertility transition. The pace of this transition along agricultural frontiers will likely have major implications for future forest transitions, rural development, and ultimately urbanization in frontier areas. The study here is based upon data from a probability sample of 172 women who lived on the same farm in 1990 and 1999. These data are from perhaps the first region-wide longitudinal survey of fertility in an agricultural frontier. Descriptive analyses indicate that fertility has plummeted in the region, which is surprising since it had remained high and unchanging among migrant colonists up to 1990. Thus only half of the women in our sample reported having a birth during the 1990-1999 time period, and most women report in 1999 that they do not want to have any more children. Analyses, controlling for women's age, corroborate hypotheses about land-fertility relations. For example, women from households with a legal land title had fewer than half as many children as those from households without a title. Large cattle (pasture) holdings and hiring laborers to work on the farm (which may replace household labor) are both related to socio-economic status that is traditionally associated with lower fertility. Similarly, distance to the nearest community center is positively related to fertility. Factors negatively related to fertility include increasing temporary out-migration of adult men or women from the household, asset accumulation, and access to electricity. PMID:19657468

  17. The Population Decline and Extinction of Darwin’s Frogs

    PubMed Central

    Soto-Azat, Claudio; Valenzuela-Sánchez, Andrés; Collen, Ben; Rowcliffe, J. Marcus; Veloso, Alberto; Cunningham, Andrew A.

    2013-01-01

    Darwin’s frogs (Rhinoderma darwinii and R. rufum) are two species of mouth-brooding frogs from Chile and Argentina. Here, we present evidence on the extent of declines, current distribution and conservation status of Rhinoderma spp.; including information on abundance, habitat and threats to extant Darwin’s frog populations. All known archived Rhinoderma specimens were examined in museums in North America, Europe and South America. Extensive surveys were carried out throughout the historical ranges of R. rufum and R. darwinii from 2008 to 2012. Literature review and location data of 2,244 archived specimens were used to develop historical distribution maps for Rhinoderma spp. Based on records of sightings, optimal linear estimation was used to estimate whether R. rufum can be considered extinct. No extant R. rufum was found and our modelling inferred that this species became extinct in 1982 (95% CI, 1980–2000). Rhinoderma darwinii was found in 36 sites. All populations were within native forest and abundance was highest in Chiloé Island, when compared with Coast, Andes and South populations. Estimated population size and density (five populations) averaged 33.2 frogs/population (range, 10.2–56.3) and 14.9 frogs/100 m2 (range, 5.3–74.1), respectively. Our results provide further evidence that R. rufum is extinct and indicate that R. darwinii has declined to a much greater degree than previously recognised. Although this species can still be found across a large part of its historical range, remaining populations are small and severely fragmented. Conservation efforts for R. darwinii should be stepped up and the species re-classified as Endangered. PMID:23776705

  18. Forest investigations by polarimetric AIRSAR data in the Harz mountains

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Keil, M.; Poll, D.; Raupenstrauch, J.; Tares, T.; Winter, R.

    1993-01-01

    The Harz Mountains in the North of Germany have been a study site for several remote sensing investigations since 1985, as the mountainous area is one of the forest regions in Germany heavily affected by forest decline, especially in the high altitudes above 800 m. In a research program at the University of Berlin, methods are developed for improving remote sensing assessment of forest structure and forest state by additional GIS information, using several datasets for establishing a forest information system. The Harz has been defined as a test site for the SIR-C/X-SAR mission which is going to deliver multifrequency and multipolarizational SAR data from orbit. In a pilot project let by DLR-DFD, these data are to be investigated for forestry and ecology purposes. In preparing a flight campaign to the SIR-C / X-SAR mission, 'MAC EUROPE 1991', performed by NASA/JPL, an area of about 12 km in the Northern Harz was covered with multipolarizational AIRSAR data in the C-, L- and P-band, including the Brocken, the highest mountain of the Harz, with an altitude of 1142 m. The multiparameter AIRSAR data are investigated for their information content on the forest state, regarding the following questions: (1) information on forest stand parameters like forest types, age classes and crown density, especially for the separation of deciduous and coniferous forest; (2) information on the storm damages (since 1972) and the status of regeneration; (3) information on the status of forest destruction because of forest decline; and (4) influence of topography, local incidence angle and soil moisture on the SAR data. Within the project various methods and tools have been developed for the investigation of multipolarimetric radar backscatter responses and for discrimination purposes, in order to use the multipolarization information of the compressed Stokes matrix delivered by JPL.

  19. Reactions of salaried physicians to hospital decline.

    PubMed Central

    Lachman, R; Noy, S

    1996-01-01

    OBJECTIVE. To examine the Exit, Loyalty, Voice, and Neglect (ELVN) reactions of full-time salaried physicians to the decline of their employing hospital, and to explore factors possibly associated with the choice of reactions. DATA SOURCE. The study analyzes data collected in a larger survey of work attitudes of 703 hospital physicians, constituting a representative national sample of (every tenth) salaried hospital physicians in Israel. DATA COLLECTION. Data were collected through a self-administered mail questionnaire with return envelopes attached. STUDY DESIGN. A survey design was used. Survey questionnaires included composite measures of the ELVN reaction as well as of the main predictors of reaction choice: job satisfaction, hospital commitment, job investment, alternatives, tenure, and managerial and senior positions. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS. The reactions of salaried physicians to hospital decline include the whole range of ELVN reactions. The choice of each reaction was found associated with a different set of disposition, situation, and position predictors. CONCLUSIONS. The ELVN typology is relevant for examining physicians' reactions to hospital decline, which appear to extend beyond the simple stay/leave dichotomy commonly used. The reactions of Exit, Loyalty, Voice, and Neglect are different in nature, and appear to reflect the different sets of circumstances that salaried physicians may face. Implications of these results for coping with hospital decline, hospital-physician relationships, and integration strategies are discussed. PMID:8675438

  20. Student Writing: Strategies to Reverse Ongoing Decline

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carter, Michael J.; Harper, Heather

    2013-01-01

    This article reports on the decline in writing ability skills in secondary and higher education students. The author discusses changes that have affected student writing skills over the recent decades and offers recommendations for improving these skills, such as: implementing intensive freshman writing courses; adjusting existing course…

  1. Black Rural Land Decline in the South

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McGee, Leo; Boone, Robert

    1977-01-01

    Notes that it is widely accepted that millions of blacks who migrated from the South contributed significantly to the decline of black rural land ownership. However, the less than altruistic behavior patterns of land officials has also contributed to the loss of rural land by blacks. (Author/AM)

  2. Complexity versus certainty in understanding species’ declines

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sundstrom, Shana M.; Allen, Craig R.

    2014-01-01

    Traditional approaches to predict species declines (e.g. government processes or IUCN Red Lists), may be too simplistic and may therefore misguide management and conservation. Using complex systems approaches that account for scale-specific patterns and processes have the potential to overcome these limitations.

  3. Predicting Succession under Conditions of Enrollment Decline.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Berger, Michael A.

    Three possible explanations for superintendent succession focus on poor administrative performance, district response strategies, and the politics of the chief executive's relationship with the school board. To analyze succession in the context of declining enrollment, a case study survey was conducted of 56 school districts whose peak enrollment…

  4. Decline and conservation of bumble bees.

    PubMed

    Goulson, D; Lye, G C; Darvill, B

    2008-01-01

    Declines in bumble bee species in the past 60 years are well documented in Europe, where they are driven primarily by habitat loss and declines in floral abundance and diversity resulting from agricultural intensification. Impacts of habitat degradation and fragmentation are likely to be compounded by the social nature of bumble bees and their largely monogamous breeding system, which renders their effective population size low. Hence, populations are susceptible to stochastic extinction events and inbreeding. In North America, catastrophic declines of some bumble bee species since the 1990s are probably attributable to the accidental introduction of a nonnative parasite from Europe, a result of global trade in domesticated bumble bee colonies used for pollination of greenhouse crops. Given the importance of bumble bees as pollinators of crops and wildflowers, steps must be taken to prevent further declines. Suggested measures include tight regulation of commercial bumble bee use and targeted use of environmentally comparable schemes to enhance floristic diversity in agricultural landscapes. PMID:17803456

  5. Exploring the Global Decline of Music Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aróstegui, José Luis

    2016-01-01

    This article seeks to explain the disjuncture between the decline of music education in schools and the importance music has in popular youth culture and in creativity within the new knowledge economy. The data discussed in this article have been derived from analyses of major documents on curriculum reform as well as e-mail responses from music…

  6. The Decline of Direct Newspaper Competition.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rosse, James N.

    1980-01-01

    Describes the decline of direct newspaper competition in terms of the loss of effective newspaper market segmentation. Examines the following influences on market segmentation: shift in advertising demand, advertiser preferences for differentiated audiences, shift in subscriber demand, growth of alternative media, increasing production costs, and…

  7. Migratory diversity predicts population declines in birds.

    PubMed

    Gilroy, James J; Gill, Jennifer A; Butchart, Stuart H M; Jones, Victoria R; Franco, Aldina M A

    2016-03-01

    Declines in migratory species are a pressing concern worldwide, but the mechanisms underpinning these declines are not fully understood. We hypothesised that species with greater within-population variability in migratory movements and destinations, here termed 'migratory diversity', might be more resilient to environmental change. To test this, we related map-based metrics of migratory diversity to recent population trends for 340 European breeding birds. Species that occupy larger non-breeding ranges relative to breeding, a characteristic we term 'migratory dispersion', were less likely to be declining than those with more restricted non-breeding ranges. Species with partial migration strategies (i.e. overlapping breeding and non-breeding ranges) were also less likely to be declining than full migrants or full residents, an effect that was independent of migration distance. Recent rates of advancement in Europe-wide spring arrival date were greater for partial migrants than full migrants, suggesting that migratory diversity may also help facilitate species responses to climate change. PMID:26807694

  8. Translational gene mapping of cognitive decline

    PubMed Central

    Wilmot, Beth; McWeeney, Shannon K.; Nixon, Randal R.; Montine, Thomas J.; Laut, Jamie; Harrington, Christina A.; Kaye, Jeffrey A.; Kramer, Patricia L.

    2009-01-01

    The ability to maintain cognitive function during aging is a complex process subject to genetic and environmental influences. Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is the most common disorder causing cognitive decline among the elderly. Among those with AD, there is broad variation in the relationship between AD neuropathology and clinical manifestations of dementia. Differences in expression of genes involved in neural processing pathways may contribute to individual differences in maintenance of cognitive function. We performed whole genome expression profiling of RNA obtained from frontal cortex of clinically non-demented and AD subjects to identify genes associated with brain aging and cognitive decline. Genetic mapping information and biological function annotation were incorporated to highlight genes of particular interest. The candidate genes identified in this study were compared with those from two other studies in different tissues to identify common underlying transcriptional profiles. In addition to confirming sweeping transcriptomal differences documented in previous studies of cognitive decline, we present new evidence for up-regulation of actin-related processes and down-regulation of translation, RNA processing and localization, and vesicle-mediated transport in individuals with cognitive decline. PMID:17174450

  9. Why Employee Motivation Has Declined in America.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Grant, Philip C.

    1982-01-01

    Examines possible reasons for declining employee motivation: greater instability and diversity of values; more guaranteed rewards; inability of rewards to satisfy emerging needs; disappearing work ethic; reduced costs of failure; rising income and progressive taxation; more group production and problem solving; decreased employee loyalty; less…

  10. Disease management strategy for macadamia quick decline

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Trees infected with Macadamia Quick Decline (MQD) exhibit excessive sap bleeding from the trunk, frass from ambrosia beetle feeding, orange fruiting bodies of the fungus Nectria rugulosa and yellowing and browning of the leaves within the tree canopy. MQD threatens commercial and residential product...

  11. Management of watermelon vine decline in Florida

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Squash vein yellowing virus (SqVYV), the causal agent of watermelon vine decline (WVD) in Florida, is vectored by the silverleaf whitefly Bemisia tabaci (Biotype “B”). Watermelon plants mechanically inoculated at different growth stages from transplant to fruit formation with SqVYV developed WVD sy...

  12. Evaluating the Impact of Forest Schools: A Collaboration between a University and a Primary School

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Slade, Melanie; Lowery, Claire; Bland, Ken

    2013-01-01

    The Forest School movement, an important part of education in Scandinavia, has gained momentum in the UK in recent years. Within the context of declining access to, and engagement with, the natural environment Forest Schools can provide invaluable life experiences for our children. In 2012 the University of Northampton investigated opportunities…

  13. From sink to source: Regional variation in U.S. forest carbon futures.

    PubMed

    Wear, David N; Coulston, John W

    2015-01-01

    The sequestration of atmospheric carbon (C) in forests has partially offset C emissions in the United States (US) and might reduce overall costs of achieving emission targets, especially while transportation and energy sectors are transitioning to lower-carbon technologies. Using detailed forest inventory data for the conterminous US, we estimate forests' current net sequestration of atmospheric C to be 173 Tg yr(-1), offsetting 9.7% of C emissions from transportation and energy sources. Accounting for multiple driving variables, we project a gradual decline in the forest C emission sink over the next 25 years (to 112 Tg yr(-1)) with regional differences. Sequestration in eastern regions declines gradually while sequestration in the Rocky Mountain region declines rapidly and could become a source of atmospheric C due to disturbances such as fire and insect epidemics. C sequestration in the Pacific Coast region stabilizes as forests harvested in previous decades regrow. Scenarios simulating climate-induced productivity enhancement and afforestation policies increase sequestration rates, but would not fully offset declines from aging and forest disturbances. Separating C transfers associated with land use changes from sequestration clarifies forests' role in reducing net emissions and demonstrates that retention of forest land is crucial for protecting or enhancing sink strength. PMID:26558439

  14. Forest Health Detectives

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bal, Tara L.

    2014-01-01

    "Forest health" is an important concept often not covered in tree, forest, insect, or fungal ecology and biology. With minimal, inexpensive equipment, students can investigate and conduct their own forest health survey to assess the percentage of trees with natural or artificial wounds or stress. Insects and diseases in the forest are…

  15. Declining world fertility: trends, causes, implications.

    PubMed

    Tsui, A O; Bogue, D J

    1978-10-01

    This Bulletin examines the evidence that the world's fertility has declined in recent years, the factors that appear to have accounted for the decline, and the implications for fertility and population growth rates to the end of the century. On the basis of a compilation of estimates available for all nations of the world, the authors derive estimates which indicate that the world's total fertility rate dropped from 4.6 to 4.1 births per woman between 1968 and 1975, thanks largely to an earlier and more rapid and universal decline in the fertility of less developed countries (LDCs) than had been anticipated. Statistical analysis of available data suggests that the socioeconomic progress made by LDCs in this period was not great enough to account for more than a proportion of the fertility decline and that organized family planning programs were a major contributing factor. The authors' projections, which are compared to similar projections from the World Bank, the United Nations, and the U.S. Bureau of the Census, indicate that, by the year 2000, less than 1/5 of the world's population will be in the "red danger" circle of explosive population growth (2.1% or more annually); most LDCs will be in a phase of fertility decline; and many of them -- along with most now developed countries -- will be at or near replacement level of fertility. The authors warn that "our optimistic prediction is premised upon a big IF -- if (organized) family planning (in LDCs) continues. It remains imperative that all of the developed nations of the world continue their contribution to this program undiminished." PMID:12278135

  16. Observed forest sensitivity to climate implies large changes in 21st century North American forest growth.

    PubMed

    Charney, Noah D; Babst, Flurin; Poulter, Benjamin; Record, Sydne; Trouet, Valerie M; Frank, David; Enquist, Brian J; Evans, Margaret E K

    2016-09-01

    Predicting long-term trends in forest growth requires accurate characterisation of how the relationship between forest productivity and climatic stress varies across climatic regimes. Using a network of over two million tree-ring observations spanning North America and a space-for-time substitution methodology, we forecast climate impacts on future forest growth. We explored differing scenarios of increased water-use efficiency (WUE) due to CO2 -fertilisation, which we simulated as increased effective precipitation. In our forecasts: (1) climate change negatively impacted forest growth rates in the interior west and positively impacted forest growth along the western, southeastern and northeastern coasts; (2) shifting climate sensitivities offset positive effects of warming on high-latitude forests, leaving no evidence for continued 'boreal greening'; and (3) it took a 72% WUE enhancement to compensate for continentally averaged growth declines under RCP 8.5. Our results highlight the importance of locally adapted forest management strategies to handle regional differences in growth responses to climate change. PMID:27434040

  17. Impacts of fire on forest age and runoff in mountain ash forests

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wood, S.A.; Beringer, J.; Hutley, L.B.; McGuire, A.D.; Van Dijk, A.; Kilinc, M.

    2008-01-01

    Runoff from mountain ash (Eucalyptus regnans F.Muell.) forested catchments has been shown to decline significantly in the few decades following fire - returning to pre-fire levels in the following centuries - owing to changes in ecosystem water use with stand age in a relationship known as Kuczera's model. We examined this relationship between catchment runoff and stand age by measuring whole-ecosystem exchanges of water using an eddy covariance system measuring forest evapotranspiration (ET) combined with sap-flow measurements of tree water use, with measurements made across a chronosequence of three sites (24, 80 and 296 years since fire). At the 296-year old site eddy covariance systems were installed above the E. regnans overstorey and above the distinct rainforest understorey. Contrary to predictions from the Kuczera curve, we found that measurements of whole-forest ET decreased by far less across stand age between 24 and 296 years. Although the overstorey tree water use declined by 1.8 mm day-1 with increasing forest age (an annual decrease of 657 mm) the understorey ET contributed between 1.2 and 1.5 mm day-1, 45% of the total ET (3 mm day-1) at the old growth forest. ?? CSIRO 2008.

  18. Riparian corridors enhance movement of a forest specialist bird in fragmented tropical forest

    PubMed Central

    Gillies, Cameron S.; St. Clair, Colleen Cassady

    2008-01-01

    Riparian corridors and fencerows are hypothesized to increase the persistence of forest animals in fragmented landscapes by facilitating movement among suitable habitat patches. This function may be critically important for forest birds, which have declined dramatically in fragmented habitats. Unfortunately, direct evidence of corridor use has been difficult to collect at landscape scales and this limits support for corridors in conservation planning. Using telemetry and handheld GPS units, we examined the movement of forest birds by translocating territorial individuals of barred antshrikes (Thamnophilus doliatus; a forest specialist) and rufous-naped wrens (Campylorhynchus rufinucha; a forest generalist) 0.7–1.9 km from their territories in the highly fragmented tropical dry forest of Costa Rica. In each translocation, the directly intervening habitat comprised 1 of 3 treatments: forested riparian corridor, linear living fencerow, or open pasture. Antshrikes returned faster and with greater success in riparian corridors relative to pasture treatments. This species also traveled more directly in riparian corridor treatments, detoured to use forested routes in the other 2 treatments, and did not use fencerows even when they led directly to their home territories. By contrast, wrens were more likely to use fencerows when returning, and return time and success were equivalent among the 3 treatments. Both species crossed fewer gaps in tree cover during riparian corridor treatments than in fencerow or pasture treatments. We conclude that antshrikes, which may be representative of other forest specialists, use forested corridors for movement in this landscape and that fencerows are avoided as movement conduits. PMID:19017794

  19. Interannual trends in water use efficiency in declining riparian woodlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stella, J. C.; Riddle, J. D.; Piégay, H.; Teece, M.; Trémelo, M.

    2012-12-01

    Riparian ecosystems in water limited regions are under stress worldwide from flow regulation, land use and climate change. We analyzed tree-ring growth and stable carbon isotope geochemistry in pioneer trees to identify shifts in riparian tree water use as it affects forest condition. We cored individuals of Populus nigra, a riparian species that is vulnerable to changes in local groundwater levels, at floodplain sites along the Drôme River, in the Mediterranean-climate zone of southern France, to analyze the relative ecological impacts of in-stream gravel mining and climate-induced flow reductions on tree growth, crown dieback, and ecohydrological function. Regime Shift Detection analysis of site chronologies showed a divergent pattern among sites, with four sites maintaining stable growth and three others with sharply declining trends in growth to less than 30 cm2 basal area increment (BAI) in all recent years. At sites with stable growth, there was a negative relationship between growth and δ13C (slope = -0.37 to -0.55, p<0.01), indicating that the highest growth occurred when water was abundant. At declining sites, there was a positive relationship between growth and δ13C (slope = 0.33 to 0.52, p<0.01). These trends suggest that the highest water stress occurred in high growth years, and is consistent with limited groundwater capacity. Trees with the greatest crown dieback evident from low-altitude aerial photos had the greatest increase in water use efficiency. Growth declines and increased 13C enrichment were initiated in years of meteorological droughts that occurred after (but never prior to) the mining period, and were spatially distributed to suggest local bedrock controls on soil depth. The combined results indicate that these semi-arid riparian woodlands are vulnerable to multiple physical drivers, but that the severity of impacts is conditioned by interactions between drivers at different scales, including regional climate variability, reach

  20. Genetics Show Current Decline and Pleistocene Expansion in Northern Spotted Owls

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Funk, W. Chris; Forsman, Eric D.; Mullins, Thomas D.; Haig, Susan M.

    2008-01-01

    The northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) is one of the most controversial threatened subspecies ever listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Because of concern for persistence of the subspecies, logging on Federal lands in the U.S. Pacific Northwest was dramatically reduced under the Northwest Forest Plan in 1994. Despite protection of its remaining forest habitat, recent field studies show continued demographic declines of northern spotted owls. One potential threat to northern spotted owls that has not yet been shown is loss of genetic variation from population bottlenecks that can increase inbreeding depression and decrease adaptive potential. Here, we show recent genetic bottlenecks in northern spotted owls using a large genetic dataset (352 individuals from across the subspecies' range and 11 microsatellite loci). The signature of bottlenecks was strongest in Washington State, in agreement with field data. Interestingly, we also found a genetic signature of Pleistocene expansion in the same study areas where recent bottlenecks were shown. Our results provide independent evidence that northern spotted owls have recently declined, and suggest that loss of genetic variation is an emerging threat to the subspecies' persistence. Reduced effective population size (Ne), shown here in addition to field evidence for demographic decline, highlights the increasing vulnerability of this bird to extinction.

  1. Forest dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Frelich, Lee

    2016-01-01

    Forest dynamics encompass changes in stand structure, species composition, and species interactions with disturbance and environment over a range of spatial and temporal scales. For convenience, spatial scale is defined as individual tree, neighborhood, stand, and landscape. Whether a given canopy-leveling disturbance will initiate a sequence of development in structure with little change in composition or initiate an episode of succession depends on a match or mismatch, respectively, with traits of the dominant tree species that allow the species to survive disturbance. When these match, certain species-disturbance type combinations lock in a pattern of stand and landscape dynamics that can persist for several generations of trees; thus, dominant tree species regulate, as well as respond to, disturbance. A complex interaction among tree species, neighborhood effects, disturbance type and severity, landform, and soils determines how stands of differing composition form and the mosaic of stands that compose the landscape. Neighborhood effects (e.g., serotinous seed rain, sprouting, shading, leaf-litter chemistry, and leaf-litter physical properties) operate at small spatial extents of the individual tree and its neighbors but play a central role in forest dynamics by contributing to patch formation at stand scales and dynamics of the entire landscape. Dominance by tree species with neutral to negative neighborhood effects leads to unstable landscape dynamics in disturbance-prone regions, wherein most stands are undergoing succession; stability can only occur under very low-severity disturbance regimes. Dominance by species with positive effects leads to stable landscape dynamics wherein only a small proportion of stands undergo succession at any one time. Positive neighborhood effects are common in temperate and boreal zones, whereas negative effects are more common in tropical climates. Landscapes with positive dynamics have alternate categories of dynamics

  2. Forest dynamics.

    PubMed

    Frelich, Lee

    2016-01-01

    Forest dynamics encompass changes in stand structure, species composition, and species interactions with disturbance and environment over a range of spatial and temporal scales. For convenience, spatial scale is defined as individual tree, neighborhood, stand, and landscape. Whether a given canopy-leveling disturbance will initiate a sequence of development in structure with little change in composition or initiate an episode of succession depends on a match or mismatch, respectively, with traits of the dominant tree species that allow the species to survive disturbance. When these match, certain species-disturbance type combinations lock in a pattern of stand and landscape dynamics that can persist for several generations of trees; thus, dominant tree species regulate, as well as respond to, disturbance. A complex interaction among tree species, neighborhood effects, disturbance type and severity, landform, and soils determines how stands of differing composition form and the mosaic of stands that compose the landscape. Neighborhood effects (e.g., serotinous seed rain, sprouting, shading, leaf-litter chemistry, and leaf-litter physical properties) operate at small spatial extents of the individual tree and its neighbors but play a central role in forest dynamics by contributing to patch formation at stand scales and dynamics of the entire landscape. Dominance by tree species with neutral to negative neighborhood effects leads to unstable landscape dynamics in disturbance-prone regions, wherein most stands are undergoing succession; stability can only occur under very low-severity disturbance regimes. Dominance by species with positive effects leads to stable landscape dynamics wherein only a small proportion of stands undergo succession at any one time. Positive neighborhood effects are common in temperate and boreal zones, whereas negative effects are more common in tropical climates. Landscapes with positive dynamics have alternate categories of dynamics

  3. Turnover of Species and Guilds in Shrub Spider Communities in a 100-Year Postlogging Forest Chronosequence.

    PubMed

    Haraguchi, Takashi F; Tayasu, Ichiro

    2016-02-01

    Disturbance of forests by logging and subsequent forest succession causes marked changes in arthropod communities. Although vegetation cover provides important habitat for arthropods, studies of the changes in their community structure associated with forest succession have been conducted mostly at ground level. To evaluate how forests of different ages contribute to arthropod biodiversity in shrub habitat, spiders were collected from shrubs in 12 forests ranging in age from 1 to 107 yr after logging. We found marked changes in spider community structure about 10 yr after logging: the number of species and individuals declined rapidly after this time. These changes were likely caused by a decrease in shrub cover in association with forest succession. Changes in spider species composition associated with stand age were small in forests at least 11 yr old and were not clustered by forest age. After the exclusion of species of which we sampled only one or two individuals incidentally, just 0.9 ± 0.5 (mean ± SD) species were unique to these older forests. The other 41.2 ± 4.3 species found in these forests were common to both older and young forests, although some of these species in common were found mainly in forests at least 11 yr old. These results suggest that preservation of old-growth forests contributes to the abundance of these common species, although old-growth forests contribute little to species diversity. PMID:26374757

  4. Modelling associations between public understanding, engagement and forest conditions in the Inland Northwest, USA.

    PubMed

    Hartter, Joel; Stevens, Forrest R; Hamilton, Lawrence C; Congalton, Russell G; Ducey, Mark J; Oester, Paul T

    2015-01-01

    Opinions about public lands and the actions of private non-industrial forest owners in the western United States play important roles in forested landscape management as both public and private forests face increasing risks from large wildfires, pests and disease. This work presents the responses from two surveys, a random-sample telephone survey of more than 1500 residents and a mail survey targeting owners of parcels with 10 or more acres of forest. These surveys were conducted in three counties (Wallowa, Union, and Baker) in northeast Oregon, USA. We analyze these survey data using structural equation models in order to assess how individual characteristics and understanding of forest management issues affect perceptions about forest conditions and risks associated with declining forest health on public lands. We test whether forest understanding is informed by background, beliefs, and experiences, and whether as an intervening variable it is associated with views about forest conditions on publicly managed forests. Individual background characteristics such as age, gender and county of residence have significant direct or indirect effects on our measurement of understanding. Controlling for background factors, we found that forest owners with higher self-assessed understanding, and more education about forest management, tend to hold more pessimistic views about forest conditions. Based on our results we argue that self-assessed understanding, interest in learning, and willingness to engage in extension activities together have leverage to affect perceptions about the risks posed by declining forest conditions on public lands, influence land owner actions, and affect support for public policies. These results also have broader implications for management of forested landscapes on public and private lands amidst changing demographics in rural communities across the Inland Northwest where migration may significantly alter the composition of forest owner goals

  5. Modelling Associations between Public Understanding, Engagement and Forest Conditions in the Inland Northwest, USA

    PubMed Central

    Hartter, Joel; Stevens, Forrest R.; Hamilton, Lawrence C.; Congalton, Russell G.; Ducey, Mark J.; Oester, Paul T.

    2015-01-01

    Opinions about public lands and the actions of private non-industrial forest owners in the western United States play important roles in forested landscape management as both public and private forests face increasing risks from large wildfires, pests and disease. This work presents the responses from two surveys, a random-sample telephone survey of more than 1500 residents and a mail survey targeting owners of parcels with 10 or more acres of forest. These surveys were conducted in three counties (Wallowa, Union, and Baker) in northeast Oregon, USA. We analyze these survey data using structural equation models in order to assess how individual characteristics and understanding of forest management issues affect perceptions about forest conditions and risks associated with declining forest health on public lands. We test whether forest understanding is informed by background, beliefs, and experiences, and whether as an intervening variable it is associated with views about forest conditions on publicly managed forests. Individual background characteristics such as age, gender and county of residence have significant direct or indirect effects on our measurement of understanding. Controlling for background factors, we found that forest owners with higher self-assessed understanding, and more education about forest management, tend to hold more pessimistic views about forest conditions. Based on our results we argue that self-assessed understanding, interest in learning, and willingness to engage in extension activities together have leverage to affect perceptions about the risks posed by declining forest conditions on public lands, influence land owner actions, and affect support for public policies. These results also have broader implications for management of forested landscapes on public and private lands amidst changing demographics in rural communities across the Inland Northwest where migration may significantly alter the composition of forest owner goals

  6. Forest-Water Feedbacks Under a Changing Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Creed, I. F.; Hwang, T.

    2015-12-01

    Among the most valuable products produced by forests are the ecosystem services of safe and reliable water supplies. The provision of these ecosystem services on forested landscapes is inherently linked to forest condition. Climate change and associated hydrological intensification may affect forest water use (green water) and runoff generation (blue water) in the temperate forest biome of eastern North America. For the time period from the 1980s to present, a period with significant climate warming, we used a network of long-term catchment study sites nested within the temperate forest biome to explore forest-water feedbacks in response to climate change. Satellite remote sensing was used to track changes in forest phenology and forest productivity, and catchment meteorological and discharge records were used to track changes in the magnitude and timing of forest water yields. Forest responses to climate change varied along a latitudinal gradient. The magnitude of annual water yields declined at all study sites. The timing of peak discharge was measured by the center of mass (i.e., 50th percentile), and the narrowing or widening of discharge periods was measured by the coefficient of dispersion (i.e., 75th - 25th over 50th percentile) of water yield. For the vernal window, we observed subtle and systematic changes with a shift to later peaks in the center of mass of spring discharge and a widening of the spring discharge period (i.e., less peaked flows). For the autumnal window, we observed less subtle, non-systematic changes with a shift to later peaks above 45 degrees latitude but earlier peaks below 45 degrees latitude, and a narrowing of the fall discharge period (i.e., more peaked flows). The time shift and widening of vernal and autumnal windows are likely caused by asymmetric responses of forest water use (green water) and runoff generation (blue water) to climate warming. These disruptions in forest-water coupling are likely to have significant

  7. Illegal killing for ivory drives global decline in African elephants.

    PubMed

    Wittemyer, George; Northrup, Joseph M; Blanc, Julian; Douglas-Hamilton, Iain; Omondi, Patrick; Burnham, Kenneth P

    2014-09-01

    Illegal wildlife trade has reached alarming levels globally, extirpating populations of commercially valuable species. As a driver of biodiversity loss, quantifying illegal harvest is essential for conservation and sociopolitical affairs but notoriously difficult. Here we combine field-based carcass monitoring with fine-scale demographic data from an intensively studied wild African elephant population in Samburu, Kenya, to partition mortality into natural and illegal causes. We then expand our analytical framework to model illegal killing rates and population trends of elephants at regional and continental scales using carcass data collected by a Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species program. At the intensively monitored site, illegal killing increased markedly after 2008 and was correlated strongly with the local black market ivory price and increased seizures of ivory destined for China. More broadly, results from application to continental data indicated illegal killing levels were unsustainable for the species between 2010 and 2012, peaking to ∼ 8% in 2011 which extrapolates to ∼ 40,000 elephants illegally killed and a probable species reduction of ∼ 3% that year. Preliminary data from 2013 indicate overharvesting continued. In contrast to the rest of Africa, our analysis corroborates that Central African forest elephants experienced decline throughout the last decade. These results provide the most comprehensive assessment of illegal ivory harvest to date and confirm that current ivory consumption is not sustainable. Further, our approach provides a powerful basis to determine cryptic mortality and gain understanding of the demography of at-risk species. PMID:25136107

  8. Illegal killing for ivory drives global decline in African elephants

    PubMed Central

    Wittemyer, George; Northrup, Joseph M.; Blanc, Julian; Douglas-Hamilton, Iain; Omondi, Patrick; Burnham, Kenneth P.

    2014-01-01

    Illegal wildlife trade has reached alarming levels globally, extirpating populations of commercially valuable species. As a driver of biodiversity loss, quantifying illegal harvest is essential for conservation and sociopolitical affairs but notoriously difficult. Here we combine field-based carcass monitoring with fine-scale demographic data from an intensively studied wild African elephant population in Samburu, Kenya, to partition mortality into natural and illegal causes. We then expand our analytical framework to model illegal killing rates and population trends of elephants at regional and continental scales using carcass data collected by a Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species program. At the intensively monitored site, illegal killing increased markedly after 2008 and was correlated strongly with the local black market ivory price and increased seizures of ivory destined for China. More broadly, results from application to continental data indicated illegal killing levels were unsustainable for the species between 2010 and 2012, peaking to ∼8% in 2011 which extrapolates to ∼40,000 elephants illegally killed and a probable species reduction of ∼3% that year. Preliminary data from 2013 indicate overharvesting continued. In contrast to the rest of Africa, our analysis corroborates that Central African forest elephants experienced decline throughout the last decade. These results provide the most comprehensive assessment of illegal ivory harvest to date and confirm that current ivory consumption is not sustainable. Further, our approach provides a powerful basis to determine cryptic mortality and gain understanding of the demography of at-risk species. PMID:25136107

  9. Degraded lands worth protecting: the biological importance of Southeast Asia's repeatedly logged forests

    PubMed Central

    Edwards, David P.; Larsen, Trond H.; Docherty, Teegan D. S.; Ansell, Felicity A.; Hsu, Wayne W.; Derhé, Mia A.; Hamer, Keith C.; Wilcove, David S.

    2011-01-01

    Southeast Asia is a hotspot of imperilled biodiversity, owing to extensive logging and forest conversion to oil palm agriculture. The degraded forests that remain after multiple rounds of intensive logging are often assumed to be of little conservation value; consequently, there has been no concerted effort to prevent them from being converted to oil palm. However, no study has quantified the biodiversity of repeatedly logged forests. We compare the species richness and composition of birds and dung beetles within unlogged (primary), once-logged and twice-logged forests in Sabah, Borneo. Logging had little effect on the overall richness of birds. Dung beetle richness declined following once-logging but did not decline further after twice-logging. The species composition of bird and dung beetle communities was altered, particularly after the second logging rotation, but globally imperilled bird species (IUCN Red List) did not decline further after twice-logging. Remarkably, over 75 per cent of bird and dung beetle species found in unlogged forest persisted within twice-logged forest. Although twice-logged forests have less biological value than primary and once-logged forests, they clearly provide important habitat for numerous bird and dung beetle species. Preventing these degraded forests from being converted to oil palm should be a priority of policy-makers and conservationists. PMID:20685713

  10. The decline of Arab oil revenues

    SciTech Connect

    Farid, A.M.

    1986-01-01

    Since 1981, Arab oil revenues have declined by about 40-50%. This has had an enormous impact on the Arab economies as well as on economic and political relations between the Arab world, the industrialised world and the Third world. This book reviews how lower oil revenues have affected Arab countries and the international economy. It also considers the future prospects for Arab oil and the world oil industry. It analyses the various assessment of the life span of oil, the forecasts concerning the development of alternative sources of energy and the factors governing the demand for oil. Although the outlook for the Arab economies appears gloomy in many respects, the book argues that there is potential within the Arab world to overcome the decline in oil revenues. However it will require great efforts in political and economic co-operation amongst Arab states.

  11. Almagest Declinations: Timocharis, Aristyllus, and Hipparcus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zimmer, Peter C.; Brandt, J. C.; Jones, P. B.

    2013-01-01

    Declinations in the Almagest provide an opportunity to determine the observational precision of the ancient observers and their epochs. The basic data are the original observations (O) and the declinations calculated (C) by precessing modern positions and including refraction. The plots of (O) - (C) can be analyzed using several different approaches. All of the original positions appear to be valid except Timocharis’s value for Arcturus. Consistent results for the precisions and epochs, respectively, are: Timocharis--8.1 arc min, near 296BC; Aristyllus--5.3 arc min, near 258BC; and Hipparcus--6.8 arc min, near 130BC. See the papers by Pannekoek (1955), Maeyama (1984), Rawlins (manuscript, c. 1983), and our earlier (Brandt, Zimmer, and Jones, 2011) report for the development of this subject. The precisions in the range 5-8 arc min are remarkable and the dates are compatible with historical evidence.

  12. The decline of North American freshwater fishes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Walsh, Stephen J.; Jelks, Howard L.; Burkhead, Noel M.

    2009-01-01

    North America has a broad array of freshwater ecosystems because of the continent's complex geography and geological history. Within a multitude of habitats—that include streams, large rivers, natural lakes, springs, and wetlands—rich assemblages of fishes reside, representing diverse taxonomic groups with unique ecological requirements. They face an unprecedented conservation crisis.1 In the last few decades, the proportion of inland fishes of North America, which are considered imperiled or extinct, increased from 20 to 40%.2 Although extinctions have occurred, many species and populations are declining in range size and abundance. The fish biota of the continent as a whole remains diverse; however, we can take action to stem any further declines.

  13. Analysis of production decline in geothermal reservoirs

    SciTech Connect

    Zais, Elliot J.; Bodvarsson, Gunnar

    1980-09-01

    The major objectives of the Decline Curve project were to: (1) test the decline analysis methods used in the petroleum industry on geothermal production data; (2) examine and/or develop new analysis methods; and (3) develop a standard operating procedure for analyzing geothermal production data. Various analysis methods have long been available but they have not been tested on geothermal data because of the lack of publicly available data. The recent release to publication of substantial data sets from Wairakei, New Zealand, Cerro Prieto, Mexico and The Geysers, USA has made this study possible. Geothermal reservoirs are quite different from petroleum reservoirs in many ways so the analysis methods must be tested using geothermal data.

  14. Regenerative decline of stem cells in sarcopenia.

    PubMed

    Sousa-Victor, Pedro; Muñoz-Cánoves, Pura

    2016-08-01

    Skeletal muscle mass and function decline with aging, a process known as sarcopenia, which restrains posture maintenance, mobility and quality of life in the elderly. Sarcopenia is also linked to a progressive reduction in the regenerative capacity of the skeletal muscle stem cells (satellite cells), which are critical for myofiber formation in early life stages and for sustaining repair in response to muscle damage or trauma. Here we will review the most recent findings on the causes underlying satellite cell functional decline with aging, and will discuss the prevalent view whereby age-associated extrinsic factor alterations impact negatively on satellite cell-intrinsic mechanisms, resulting in deficient muscle regeneration with aging. Further understanding of the interplay between satellite cell extrinsic and intrinsic factors in sarcopenia will facilitate therapies aimed at improving muscle repair in the increasing aging population. PMID:26921790

  15. The rise (and decline?) of biotechnology.

    PubMed

    Kinch, Michael S

    2014-11-01

    Since the 1970s, biotechnology has been a key innovator in drug development. An analysis of FDA-approved therapeutics demonstrates pharmaceutical companies outpace biotechs in terms of new approvals but biotechnology companies are now responsible for earlier-stage activities (patents, INDs or clinical development). The number of biotechnology organizations that contributed to an FDA approval began declining in the 2000s and is at a level not seen since the 1980s. Whereas early biotechnology companies had a decade from first approval until acquisition, the average acquisition of a biotechnology company now occurs months before their first FDA approval. The number of hybrid organizations that arise when pharmaceutical companies acquire biotechnology is likewise declining, raising questions about the sustainability of biotechnology. PMID:24747562

  16. 26 CFR 1.167(b)-2 - Declining balance method.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Declining balance method. 1.167(b)-2 Section 1... Declining balance method. (a) Application of method. Under the declining balance method a uniform rate is... declining balance rate may be determined without resort to formula. Such rate determined under section...

  17. 26 CFR 1.167(b)-2 - Declining balance method.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 2 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Declining balance method. 1.167(b)-2 Section 1... Declining balance method. (a) Application of method. Under the declining balance method a uniform rate is... declining balance rate may be determined without resort to formula. Such rate determined under section...

  18. 26 CFR 1.167(b)-2 - Declining balance method.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 2 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Declining balance method. 1.167(b)-2 Section 1... Declining balance method. (a) Application of method. Under the declining balance method a uniform rate is... declining balance rate may be determined without resort to formula. Such rate determined under section...

  19. 26 CFR 1.167(b)-2 - Declining balance method.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 2 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Declining balance method. 1.167(b)-2 Section 1... Declining balance method. (a) Application of method. Under the declining balance method a uniform rate is... declining balance rate may be determined without resort to formula. Such rate determined under section...

  20. 26 CFR 1.167(b)-2 - Declining balance method.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 2 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Declining balance method. 1.167(b)-2 Section 1... Declining balance method. (a) Application of method. Under the declining balance method a uniform rate is... declining balance rate may be determined without resort to formula. Such rate determined under section...

  1. Reliability of indicators of decline in abundance.

    PubMed

    Porszt, Erin J; Peterman, Randall M; Dulvy, Nicholas K; Cooper, Andrew B; Irvine, James R

    2012-10-01

    Although there are many indicators of endangerment (i.e., whether populations or species meet criteria that justify conservation action), their reliability has rarely been tested. Such indicators may fail to identify that a population or species meets criteria for conservation action (false negative) or may incorrectly show that such criteria have been met (false positive). To quantify the rate of both types of error for 20 commonly used indicators of declining abundance (threat indicators), we used receiver operating characteristic curves derived from historical (1938-2007) data for 18 sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) populations in the Fraser River, British Columbia, Canada. We retrospectively determined each population's yearly status (reflected by change in abundance over time) on the basis of each indicator. We then compared that population's status in a given year with the status in subsequent years (determined by the magnitude of decline in abundance across those years). For each sockeye population, we calculated how often each indicator of past status matched subsequent status. No single threat indicator provided error-free estimates of status, but indicators that reflected the extent (i.e., magnitude) of past decline in abundance (through comparison of current abundance with some historical baseline abundance) tended to better reflect status in subsequent years than the rate of decline over the previous 3 generations (a widely used indicator). We recommend that when possible, the reliability of various threat indicators be evaluated with empirical analyses before such indicators are used to determine the need for conservation action. These indicators should include estimates from the entire data set to take into account a historical baseline. PMID:22741815

  2. Southern California ozone pollution declining and changing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balcerak, Ernie

    2013-07-01

    Many studies have documented the decline in ozone pollution and its precursors in the Los Angeles air basin over the past several decades. Now Pollack et al. have analyzed new data from research aircraft, along with archived data from roadside monitors and ground-based instruments, to provide a synthesis of concentrations and emissions ratios of ozone, other secondary pollutants, and their precursors from 1960 to 2010.

  3. Emerging infectious diseases and amphibian population declines.

    PubMed Central

    Daszak, P.; Berger, L.; Cunningham, A. A.; Hyatt, A. D.; Green, D. E.; Speare, R.

    1999-01-01

    We review recent research on the pathology, ecology, and biogeography of two emerging infectious wildlife diseases, chytridiomycosis and ranaviral disease, in the context of host-parasite population biology. We examine the role of these diseases in the global decline of amphibian populations and propose hypotheses for the origins and impact of these panzootics. Finally, we discuss emerging infectious diseases as a global threat to wildlife populations. PMID:10603206

  4. Is human fecundity declining in Western countries?

    PubMed

    te Velde, Egbert; Burdorf, Alex; Nieschlag, Eberhard; Eijkemans, René; Kremer, Jan A M; Roeleveld, Nel; Habbema, Dik

    2010-06-01

    Since Carlsen and co-workers reported in 1992 that sperm counts have decreased during the second half of the last century in Western societies, there has been widespread anxiety about the adverse effects of environmental pollutants on human fecundity. The Carlsen report was followed by several re-analyses of their data set and by many studies on time trends in sperm quality and on secular trends in fecundity. However, the results of these studies were diverse, complex, difficult to interpret and, therefore, less straightforward than the Carlsen report suggested. The claims that population fecundity is declining and that environmental pollutants are involved, can neither be confirmed nor rejected, in our opinion. However, it is of great importance to find out because the possible influence of widespread environmental pollution, which would adversely affect human reproduction, should be a matter of great concern triggering large-scale studies into its causes and possibilities for prevention. The fundamental reason we still do not know whether population fecundity is declining is the lack of an appropriate surveillance system. Is such a system possible? In our opinion, determining total sperm counts (as a measure of male reproductive health) in combination with time to pregnancy (as a measure of couple fecundity) in carefully selected populations is a feasible option for such a monitoring system. If we want to find out whether or not population fecundity will be declining within the following 20-30 years, we must start monitoring now. PMID:20395222

  5. The cultural evolution of fertility decline.

    PubMed

    Colleran, Heidi

    2016-04-19

    Cultural evolutionists have long been interested in the problem of why fertility declines as populations develop. By outlining plausible mechanistic links between individual decision-making, information flow in populations and competition between groups, models of cultural evolution offer a novel and powerful approach for integrating multiple levels of explanation of fertility transitions. However, only a modest number of models have been published. Their assumptions often differ from those in other evolutionary approaches to social behaviour, but their empirical predictions are often similar. Here I offer the first overview of cultural evolutionary research on demographic transition, critically compare it with approaches taken by other evolutionary researchers, identify gaps and overlaps, and highlight parallel debates in demography. I suggest that researchers divide their labour between three distinct phases of fertility decline-the origin, spread and maintenance of low fertility-each of which may be driven by different causal processes, at different scales, requiring different theoretical and empirical tools. A comparative, multi-level and mechanistic framework is essential for elucidating both the evolved aspects of our psychology that govern reproductive decision-making, and the social, ecological and cultural contingencies that precipitate and sustain fertility decline. PMID:27022079

  6. Fertility rates: the decline is stalling.

    PubMed

    Starke, L

    1994-01-01

    During the 1970s, the rate of total fertility in China fell from 6.4 children per woman in 1968 to 2.2 in 1980. The decline in India was more modest, but still significant at 5.8 over the period 1966-71 to 4.8 during 1976-1981. These trends helped slow the rate of world population growth from 2.1% during 1965-70 to 1.7% during 1975-80. Fertility rates are currently declining in similar fashion in Brazil, Egypt, Indonesia, Mexico, and Thailand. While impressive and much needed to ultimately stabilize world population growth, fertility declines in China and India stalled throughout the 1980s. The fertility rate in China remained around 2.5 throughout much of the decade, while progress toward lower birth rates stalled in India after the defeat of the ruling Congress Party in the late 1970s. Moreover, 67 developing countries, home to 17% of global population, have yet to enter the phase of demographic transition. It is clear that governments must supply contraceptives and reproductive health care services to couples in need of regulating their fertility, but they must also lower the demand for children by working to improve women's lives and increase their access to and control over money, credit, and other resources. PMID:12287752

  7. Ulysses orbit determination at high declinations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mcelrath, Timothy P.; Lewis, George D.

    1995-01-01

    The trajectory of the Ulysses spacecraft caused its geocentric declination to exceed 60 deg South for over two months during the Fall of 1994, permitting continuous tracking from a single site. During this time, spacecraft operations constraints allowed only Doppler tracking data to be collected, and imposed a high radial acceleration uncertainty on the orbit determination process. The unusual aspects of this situation have motivated a re-examination of the Hamilton-Melbourne results, which have been used before to estimate the information content of Doppler tracking for trajectories closer to the ecliptic. The addition of an acceleration term to this equation is found to significantly increase the declination uncertainty for symmetric passes. In addition, a simple means is described to transform the symmetric results when the tracking pass is non-symmetric. The analytical results are then compared against numerical studies of this tracking geometry and found to be in good agreement for the angular uncertainties. The results of this analysis are applicable to the Near Earth Asteroid Rendezvous (NEAR) mission and to any other missions with high declination trajectories, as well as to missions using short tracking passes and/or one-way Doppler data.

  8. Reversal of cognitive decline in Alzheimer's disease

    PubMed Central

    Bredesen, Dale E.; Amos, Edwin C.; Canick, Jonathan; Ackerley, Mary; Raji, Cyrus; Fiala, Milan; Ahdidan, Jamila

    2016-01-01

    Alzheimer's disease is one of the most significant healthcare problems nationally and globally. Recently, the first description of the reversal of cognitive decline in patients with early Alzheimer's disease or its precursors, MCI (mild cognitive impairment) and SCI (subjective cognitive impairment), was published [1]. The therapeutic approach used was programmatic and personalized rather than monotherapeutic and invariant, and was dubbed metabolic enhancement for neurodegeneration (MEND). Patients who had had to discontinue work were able to return to work, and those struggling at work were able to improve their performance. The patients, their spouses, and their co-workers all reported clear improvements. Here we report the results from quantitative MRI and neuropsychological testing in ten patients with cognitive decline, nine ApoE4+ (five homozygous and four heterozygous) and one ApoE4−, who were treated with the MEND protocol for 5-24 months. The magnitude of the improvement is unprecedented, providing additional objective evidence that this programmatic approach to cognitive decline is highly effective. These results have far-reaching implications for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease, MCI, and SCI; for personalized programs that may enhance pharmaceutical efficacy; and for personal identification of ApoE genotype. PMID:27294343

  9. Lacunarity as a texture measure for a tropical forest landscape

    SciTech Connect

    Su, Haiping; Krummel, J.

    1996-01-01

    Fragmentation and loss of tropical forest cover alters terrestrial plant and animal population dynamics, reduces biodiversity and carbon storage capacity, and, as a global phenomenon could affect regional and global climate patterns. Lacunarity as a texture measure can offer a simple solution to characterize the texture of tropical forest landscape and determine spatial patterns associated with ecological processes. Lacunarity quantifies the deviation from translational invariance by describing the distribution of gaps within a binary image at multiple scales. As lacunarity increases, the spatial arrangement of tropical forest gaps will also increase. In this study, we used the Spatial Modeler in Imagine as a graphic programming tool to calculate lacunarity indices for a tropical forest landscape in Southern Mexico and Northern Guatemala. Lacunarity indices were derived from classified Landsat MSS images acquired in 1974 and 1984. Random-generated binary images were also used to derive lacunarity indices and compared with the lacunarity of forest patterns derived from the classified MSS images. Tropical forest area declined about 17%, with most of the forest areas converted into pasture/grassland for grazing. During this period, lacunarity increased about 25%. Results of this study suggest that tropical forest fragmentation could be quantified with lacunarity measures. The study also demonstrated that the Spatial Modeler can be useful as a programming tool to quantify spatial patterns of tropical forest landscape by using remotely sensed data.

  10. Changes in Forest Production, Biomass and Carbon: Results From the 2015 UN FAO Global Forest Resource Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Navar, J.

    2015-12-01

    Forests are important sources of livelihoods to millions of people and contribute to national economic development of many countries. In addition, they are vital sources and sinks of carbon and contribute to the rate of climate change. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization has been collecting and presenting data on global forest resources and forest cover since 1948. This paper builds on data from FAO's 2015 Global Forest Resource Assessment (FRA) and presents information on growing stock, biomass, carbon stock, wood removals, and changes of forest area primarily designated for production and multiple use of the world's forests. Between 1990 and 2015, the total growing stock volume has increased in East Asia, Caribbean, Western and Central Asia, North America, Europe (including the Russian Federation), and Oceania with the highest relative increase in East Asia and the Caribbean. In all other subregions the total growing stock volume decreased. North and Central America, Europe and Asia report forest C stock increases while South America and Africa report strong decreases and Oceania reports stable forest C stocks. The annual rate of decrease of forest C stock weakened between 1990 and 2015. The total volume of annual wood removals including wood fuel removals increased between 1990 and 2011, but shows a remarkable decline during the 2008-2009 economic crisis. Forest areas designated for production purposes differ considerably between subregions. The percentage of production area out of total forest area ranges between 16 percent in South America and 53 percent in Europe. Globally about one quarter of the forest area is designated to multiple use forestry. The balance between biomass growth and removals shows considerable sub-regional differences and related implications for the sustainable use of forests.

  11. High rates of carbon storage in old deciduous forests: Emerging mechanisms from the Forest Accelerated Succession ExperimenT (FASET)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gough, C. M.; Nave, L. E.; Hardiman, B. S.; Bohrer, G.; Halperin, A.; Maurer, K.; Le Moine, J.; Nadelhoffer, K.; Vogel, C. S.; Curtis, P.; University Of Michigan Biological Station Forest Ecosystem Study (Umbs-Fest) Team

    2010-12-01

    Deciduous forests of the eastern US are broadly approaching an ecological threshold in which early successional dominant trees are senescing and giving way to later successional species, with unknown consequences for regional carbon (C) cycling. Though recent research demonstrates that forests may accumulate C for centuries, the mechanisms behind sustained rates of C storage in old, particularly deciduous, forests have not been identified. In a regionally representative forest at the University of Michigan Biological Station, we are combining observational and experimental C cycling studies to forecast how forest C storage responds to climate variation, disturbance, and succession. The Forest Accelerated Succession ExperimenT (FASET), in which >6,700 aspen and birch trees (~35 % LAI) were stem girdled within a 39 ha area, is testing the hypothesis that forest production will increase rather than decline with age, due to increases in nitrogen (N) availability, N allocation to the canopy, and the concurrent development of a more biologically and structurally complex canopy. Results thus far support our hypothesis that aging forests in the region may sustain high rates of C storage through shifts in N cycling and increased canopy complexity. Girdling-induced mortality of early successional species reduced soil respiration, accelerated fine root turnover, and prompted the redistribution of N from the foliage of early to later successional species. Nitrogen redistribution increased leaf area index (LAI) production by later successional species, offsetting declines in LAI from senescing early successional species. High rates of net primary production (NPP) were sustained in stands comprising a diverse assemblage of early and later successional species because later successional species, when already present in the canopy, rapidly compensated for declining growth of early successional species. Canopy structural complexity, which increased with forest age, was positively

  12. Changes in landscape composition influence the decline of a threatened woodland caribou population.

    PubMed

    Wittmer, Heiko U; McLellan, Bruce N; Serrouya, Robert; Apps, Clayton D

    2007-05-01

    1. Large-scale habitat loss is frequently identified with loss of biodiversity, but examples of the direct effect of habitat alterations on changes in vital rates remain rare. Quantifying and understanding the relationship between habitat composition and changes in vital rates, however, is essential for the development of effective conservation strategies. 2. It has been suggested that the decline of woodland caribou Rangifer tarandus caribou populations in North America is precipitated by timber harvesting that creates landscapes of early seral forests. Such habitat changes have altered the predator-prey system resulting in asymmetric predation, where predators are maintained by alternative prey (i.e. apparent competition). However, a direct link between habitat condition and caribou population declines has not been documented. 3. We estimated survival probabilities for the threatened arboreal lichen-feeding ecotype of woodland caribou in British Columbia, Canada, at two different spatial scales. At the broader scale, observed variation in adult female survival rates among 10 distinct populations (range = 0.67-0.93) was best explained by variation in the amount of early seral stands within population ranges and population density. At the finer scale, home ranges of caribou killed by predators had lower proportions of old forest and more mid-aged forest as compared with multi-annual home ranges where caribou were alive. 4. These results are consistent with predictions from the apparent competition hypothesis and quantify direct fitness consequences for caribou following habitat alterations. We conclude that apparent competition can cause rapid population declines and even extinction where changes in species composition occur following large scale habitat change. PMID:17439473

  13. Climate change-associated trends in net biomass change are age dependent in western boreal forests of Canada.

    PubMed

    Chen, Han Y H; Luo, Yong; Reich, Peter B; Searle, Eric B; Biswas, Shekhar R

    2016-09-01

    The impacts of climate change on forest net biomass change are poorly understood but critical for predicting forest's contribution to the global carbon cycle. Recent studies show climate change-associated net biomass declines in mature forest plots. The representativeness of these plots for regional forests, however, remains uncertain because we lack an assessment of whether climate change impacts differ with forest age. Using data from plots of varying ages from 17 to 210 years, monitored from 1958 to 2011 in western Canada, we found that climate change has little effect on net biomass change in forests ≤ 40 years of age due to increased growth offsetting increased mortality, but has led to large decreases in older forests due to increased mortality accompanying little growth gain. Our analysis highlights the need to incorporate forest age profiles in examining past and projecting future forest responses to climate change. PMID:27465040

  14. Forest Elephant Crisis in the Congo Basin

    PubMed Central

    Blake, Stephen; Strindberg, Samantha; Boudjan, Patrick; Makombo, Calixte; Bila-Isia, Inogwabini; Ilambu, Omari; Grossmann, Falk; Bene-Bene, Lambert; de Semboli, Bruno; Mbenzo, Valentin; S'hwa, Dino; Bayogo, Rosine; Williamson, Liz; Fay, Mike; Hart, John; Maisels, Fiona

    2007-01-01

    Debate over repealing the ivory trade ban dominates conferences of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). Resolving this controversy requires accurate estimates of elephant population trends and rates of illegal killing. Most African savannah elephant populations are well known; however, the status of forest elephants, perhaps a distinct species, in the vast Congo Basin is unclear. We assessed population status and incidence of poaching from line-transect and reconnaissance surveys conducted on foot in sites throughout the Congo Basin. Results indicate that the abundance and range of forest elephants are threatened from poaching that is most intense close to roads. The probability of elephant presence increased with distance to roads, whereas that of human signs declined. At all distances from roads, the probability of elephant occurrence was always higher inside, compared to outside, protected areas, whereas that of humans was always lower. Inside protected areas, forest elephant density was correlated with the size of remote forest core, but not with size of protected area. Forest elephants must be prioritised in elephant management planning at the continental scale. PMID:17407383

  15. Forest elephant crisis in the Congo Basin.

    PubMed

    Blake, Stephen; Strindberg, Samantha; Boudjan, Patrick; Makombo, Calixte; Bila-Isia, Inogwabini; Ilambu, Omari; Grossmann, Falk; Bene-Bene, Lambert; de Semboli, Bruno; Mbenzo, Valentin; S'hwa, Dino; Bayogo, Rosine; Williamson, Liz; Fay, Mike; Hart, John; Maisels, Fiona

    2007-04-01

    Debate over repealing the ivory trade ban dominates conferences of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). Resolving this controversy requires accurate estimates of elephant population trends and rates of illegal killing. Most African savannah elephant populations are well known; however, the status of forest elephants, perhaps a distinct species, in the vast Congo Basin is unclear. We assessed population status and incidence of poaching from line-transect and reconnaissance surveys conducted on foot in sites throughout the Congo Basin. Results indicate that the abundance and range of forest elephants are threatened from poaching that is most intense close to roads. The probability of elephant presence increased with distance to roads, whereas that of human signs declined. At all distances from roads, the probability of elephant occurrence was always higher inside, compared to outside, protected areas, whereas that of humans was always lower. Inside protected areas, forest elephant density was correlated with the size of remote forest core, but not with size of protected area. Forest elephants must be prioritised in elephant management planning at the continental scale. PMID:17407383

  16. Decline of Monarch Butterflies Overwintering in Mexico- Is the Migratory Phenomenon at Risk?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brower, Lincoln; Taylor, Orley R.; Williams, Ernest H.; Slayback, Daniel; Zubieta, Raul R.; Ramirez, M. Isabel

    2012-01-01

    1.During the 2009-2010 overwintering season and following a 15-year downward trend, the total area in Mexico occupied by the eastern North American population of overwintering monarch butterflies reached an all-time low. Despite an increase, it remained low in 2010-2011. 2. Although the data set is small, the decline in abundance is statistically significant using both linear and exponential regression models. 3. Three factors appear to have contributed to reduce monarch abundance: degradation of the forest in the overwintering areas; the loss of breeding habitat in the United States due to the expansion ofGM herbicide-resistant crops, with consequent loss of milkweed host plants, as well as continued land development; and severe weather. 4. This decline calls into question the long-term survival of the monarchs' migratory phenomenon

  17. Warming-Induced Decline of Picea crassifolia Growth in the Qilian Mountains in Recent Decades

    PubMed Central

    Yu, Li; Huang, Lei; Shao, Xuemei; Xiao, Fengjing; Wilmking, Martin; Zhang, Yongxiang

    2015-01-01

    Warming-induced drought has widely affected forest dynamics in most places of the northern hemisphere. In this study, we assessed how climate warming has affected Picea crassifolia (Qinghai spruce) forests using tree growth-climate relationships and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) along the Qilian Mountains, northeastern Tibet Plateau (the main range of Picea crassifolia). Based on the analysis on trees radial growth data from the upper tree line and the regional NDVI data, we identified a pervasive growth decline in recent decades, most likely caused by warming-induced droughts. The drought stress on Picea crassifolia radial growth were expanding from northeast to southwest and the favorable moisture conditions for tree growth were retreating along the identical direction in the study area over the last half century. Compared to the historical drought stress on tree radial growth in the 1920s, recent warming-induced droughts display a longer-lasting stress with a broader spatial distribution on regional forest growth. If the recent warming continues without the effective moisture increasing, then a notable challenge is developed for Picea crassifolia in the Qilian Mountains. Elaborate forest management is necessary to counteract the future risk of climate change effects in this region. PMID:26121479

  18. Causes and consequences of marine mammal population declines in southwest Alaska: a food-web perspective

    PubMed Central

    Estes, J.A.; Doak, D.F.; Springer, A.M.; Williams, T.M.

    2009-01-01

    Populations of sea otters, seals and sea lions have collapsed across much of southwest Alaska over the past several decades. The sea otter decline set off a trophic cascade in which the coastal marine ecosystem underwent a phase shift from kelp forests to deforested sea urchin barrens. This interaction in turn affected the distribution, abundance and productivity of numerous other species. Ecological consequences of the pinniped declines are largely unknown. Increased predation by transient (marine mammal-eating) killer whales probably caused the sea otter declines and may have caused the pinniped declines as well. Springer et al. proposed that killer whales, which purportedly fed extensively on great whales, expanded their diets to include a higher percentage of sea otters and pinnipeds following a sharp reduction in great whale numbers from post World War II industrial whaling. Critics of this hypothesis claim that great whales are not now and probably never were an important nutritional resource for killer whales. We used demographic/energetic analyses to evaluate whether or not a predator–prey system involving killer whales and the smaller marine mammals would be sustainable without some nutritional contribution from the great whales. Our results indicate that while such a system is possible, it could only exist under a narrow range of extreme conditions and is therefore highly unlikely. PMID:19451116

  19. Climate and landscape drivers of tree decline in a Mediterranean ecoregion

    PubMed Central

    Brouwers, Niels C; Mercer, Jack; Lyons, Tom; Poot, Pieter; Veneklaas, Erik; Hardy, Giles

    2013-01-01

    Climate change and anthropogenic land use are increasingly affecting the resilience of natural ecosystems. In Mediterranean ecoregions, forests and woodlands have shown progressive declines in health. This study focuses on the decline of an endemic woodland tree species, Eucalyptus wandoo (wandoo), occurring in the biodiversity hotspot of southwest Western Australia. We determined the change in health of wandoo stands between 2002 and 2008 across its geographic and climatic range, and associated this change in health with non-biotic variables focusing on: (1) fragment metrics; (2) topography; (3) soil characteristics; and (4) climate. Only fragment metrics and climate variables were found to be significantly related to the observed change in health. Stands that were small with high perimeter/area ratios were found to be most sensitive to health declines. Recent increases in autumn temperatures and decreases in annual rainfall were negatively affecting health of wandoo most prominently in the low rainfall zone of its climatic range. Together, these results suggest the onset of range contraction for this ecologically important species, which is likely to be exacerbated by projected future changes in climate. Our results emphasize the importance of establishing monitoring programs to identify changes in health and decline trends early to inform management strategies, particularly in the sensitive Mediterranean ecoregions. PMID:23403899

  20. Changes in soil respiration components and their specific respiration along three successional forests in the subtropics

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Han, Tianfeng; Liu, Juxiu; Wang, Gangsheng; Huang, Wenjuan; Zhou, Guoyi

    2016-01-16

    1.Understanding how soil respiration components change with forest succession is critical for modelling and predicting soil carbon (C) processes and its sequestration below-ground. The specific respiration (a ratio of respiration to biomass) is increasingly being used as an indicator of forest succession conceptually based on Odum's theory of ecosystem development. However, the hypothesis that specific soil respiration declines with forest succession remains largely untested. 2.We used a trenching method to partition soil respiration into heterotrophic respiration and autotrophic respiration (RH and RA) and then evaluated the specific RH and specific RA in three successional forests in subtropical China. 3.Our resultsmore » showed a clear seasonality in the influence of forest succession on RH, with no significant differences among the three forests in the dry season but a higher value in the old-growth forest than the other two forests in the wet season. RA in the old-growth forest tended to be the highest among the three forests. Both the specific RH and specific RA decreased with the progressive maturity of three forests. 4.Lastly, our results highlight the importance of forest succession in determining the variation of RH in different seasons. With forest succession, soil microbes and plant roots become more efficient to conserve C resources, which would result in a greater proportion of C retained in soils.« less

  1. Impacts of the Brown Tree Snake: Patterns of Decline and Species Persistence in Guam's Avifauna

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wiles, G.J.; Bart, J.; Beck, R.E., Jr.; Aguon, C.F.

    2003-01-01

    Predation by brown tree snakes (Boiga irregularis) devastated the avifauna of Guam in the Mariana Islands during the last half of the twentieth century, causing the extirpation or serious reduction of most of the island's 25 resident bird species. Past studies have provided qualitative descriptions of the decline of native forest birds but have not considered all species or presented quantitative analyses. We analyzed two sets of survey data gathered in northern Guam between 1976 and 1998 and reviewed unpublished sources to provide a comprehensive account of the impact of brown tree snakes on the island's birds. Our results indicate that 22 species, including 17 of 18 native species, were severely affected by snakes. Twelve species were likely extirpated as breeding residents on the main island, 8 others experienced declines of ???90% throughout the island or at least in the north, and 2 were kept at reduced population levels during all or much of the study. Declines of ???90% occurred rapidly, averaging just 8.9 years along three roadside survey routes combined and 1.6 years at a 100-ha forested study site. Declines in northern Guam were also relatively synchronous and occurred from about 1976 to 1986 for most species. The most important factor predisposing a species to coexistence with brown tree snakes was its ability to nest and roost at locations where snakes were uncommon. Large clutch size and large body size were also related to longer persistence times, although large body size appeared to delay, but not prevent, extirpation. Our results draw attention to the enormous detrimental impact that brown tree snakes are likely to have upon invading new areas. Increased containment efforts on Guam are needed to prevent further colonizations, but a variety of additional management efforts would also benefit the island's remaining bird populations.

  2. Nitrogen enrichment regulates calcium sources in forests

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hynicka, Justin D.; Pett-Ridge, Julie C; Perakis, Steven

    2016-01-01

    Nitrogen (N) is a key nutrient that shapes cycles of other essential elements in forests, including calcium (Ca). When N availability exceeds ecosystem demands, excess N can stimulate Ca leaching and deplete Ca from soils. Over the long term, these processes may alter the proportion of available Ca that is derived from atmospheric deposition vs. bedrock weathering, which has fundamental consequences for ecosystem properties and nutrient supply. We evaluated how landscape variation in soil N, reflecting long-term legacies of biological N fixation, influenced plant and soil Ca availability and ecosystem Ca sources across 22 temperate forests in Oregon. We also examined interactions between soil N and bedrock Ca using soil N gradients on contrasting basaltic vs. sedimentary bedrock that differed 17-fold in underlying Ca content. We found that low-N forests on Ca-rich basaltic bedrock relied strongly on Ca from weathering, but that soil N enrichment depleted readily weatherable mineral Ca and shifted forest reliance toward atmospheric Ca. Forests on Ca-poor sedimentary bedrock relied more consistently on atmospheric Ca across all levels of soil N enrichment. The broad importance of atmospheric Ca was unexpected given active regional uplift and erosion that are thought to rejuvenate weathering supply of soil minerals. Despite different Ca sources to forests on basaltic vs. sedimentary bedrock, we observed consistent declines in plant and soil Ca availability with increasing N, regardless of the Ca content of underlying bedrock. Thus, traditional measures of Ca availability in foliage and soil exchangeable pools may poorly reflect long-term Ca sources that sustain soil fertility. We conclude that long-term soil N enrichment can deplete available Ca and cause forests to rely increasingly on Ca from atmospheric deposition, which may limit ecosystem Ca supply in an increasingly N-rich world.

  3. Mapping Forest Edge Using Aerial Lidar

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    MacLean, M. G.

    2014-12-01

    Slightly more than 60% of Massachusetts is covered with forest and this land cover type is invaluable for the protection and maintenance of our natural resources and is a carbon sink for the state. However, Massachusetts is currently experiencing a decline in forested lands, primarily due to the expansion of human development (Thompson et al., 2011). Of particular concern is the loss of "core areas" or the areas within forests that are not influenced by other land cover types. These areas are of significant importance to native flora and fauna, since they generally are not subject to invasion by exotic species and are more resilient to the effects of climate change (Campbell et al., 2009). However, the expansion of development has reduced the amount of this core area, but the exact amount is still unknown. Current methods of estimating core area are not particularly precise, since edge, or the area of the forest that is most influenced by other land cover types, is quite variable and situation dependent. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to devise a new method for identifying areas that could qualify as "edge" within the Harvard Forest, in Petersham MA, using new remote sensing techniques. We sampled along eight transects perpendicular to the edge of an abandoned golf course within the Harvard Forest property. Vegetation inventories as well as Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR) at different heights within the canopy were used to determine edge depth. These measurements were then compared with small-footprint waveform aerial LiDAR datasets and imagery to model edge depths within Harvard Forest.

  4. Evolution of Canada’s Boreal Forest Spatial Patterns as Seen from Space

    PubMed Central

    Pickell, Paul D.; Coops, Nicholas C.; Gergel, Sarah E.; Andison, David W.; Marshall, Peter L.

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the development of landscape patterns over broad spatial and temporal scales is a major contribution to ecological sciences and is a critical area of research for forested land management. Boreal forests represent an excellent case study for such research because these forests have undergone significant changes over recent decades. We analyzed the temporal trends of four widely-used landscape pattern indices for boreal forests of Canada: forest cover, largest forest patch index, forest edge density, and core (interior) forest cover. The indices were computed over landscape extents ranging from 5,000 ha (n = 18,185) to 50,000 ha (n = 1,662) and across nine major ecozones of Canada. We used 26 years of Landsat satellite imagery to derive annualized trends of the landscape pattern indices. The largest declines in forest cover, largest forest patch index, and core forest cover were observed in the Boreal Shield, Boreal Plain, and Boreal Cordillera ecozones. Forest edge density increased at all landscape extents for all ecozones. Rapidly changing landscapes, defined as the 90th percentile of forest cover change, were among the most forested initially and were characterized by four times greater decrease in largest forest patch index, three times greater increase in forest edge density, and four times greater decrease in core forest cover compared with all 50,000 ha landscapes. Moreover, approximately 18% of all 50,000 ha landscapes did not change due to a lack of disturbance. The pattern database results provide important context for forest management agencies committed to implementing ecosystem-based management strategies. PMID:27383055

  5. Evolution of Canada's Boreal Forest Spatial Patterns as Seen from Space.

    PubMed

    Pickell, Paul D; Coops, Nicholas C; Gergel, Sarah E; Andison, David W; Marshall, Peter L

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the development of landscape patterns over broad spatial and temporal scales is a major contribution to ecological sciences and is a critical area of research for forested land management. Boreal forests represent an excellent case study for such research because these forests have undergone significant changes over recent decades. We analyzed the temporal trends of four widely-used landscape pattern indices for boreal forests of Canada: forest cover, largest forest patch index, forest edge density, and core (interior) forest cover. The indices were computed over landscape extents ranging from 5,000 ha (n = 18,185) to 50,000 ha (n = 1,662) and across nine major ecozones of Canada. We used 26 years of Landsat satellite imagery to derive annualized trends of the landscape pattern indices. The largest declines in forest cover, largest forest patch index, and core forest cover were observed in the Boreal Shield, Boreal Plain, and Boreal Cordillera ecozones. Forest edge density increased at all landscape extents for all ecozones. Rapidly changing landscapes, defined as the 90th percentile of forest cover change, were among the most forested initially and were characterized by four times greater decrease in largest forest patch index, three times greater increase in forest edge density, and four times greater decrease in core forest cover compared with all 50,000 ha landscapes. Moreover, approximately 18% of all 50,000 ha landscapes did not change due to a lack of disturbance. The pattern database results provide important context for forest management agencies committed to implementing ecosystem-based management strategies. PMID:27383055

  6. Multispectral sensing of citrus young tree decline

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Edwards, G. J.; Ducharme, E. P.; Schehl, T.

    1975-01-01

    Computer processing of MSS data to identify and map citrus trees affected by young tree decline is analyzed. The data were obtained at 1500-feet altitude in six discrete spectral bands covering regions from 0.53 to 1.3 millimicrons as well as from instrumental ground truths of tree crowns. Measurable spectral reflectance intensity differences are observed in the leaves of healthy and diseased trees, especially at wavelengths of 500 to 600 nm and 700 to 800 nm. The overall accuracy of the method is found to be 89%.

  7. Deforestation and Forest Management in Southern Ethiopia: Investigations in the Chencha and Arbaminch Areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Assefa, Engdawork; Bork, Hans-Rudolf

    2014-02-01

    Long-term human impacts are considered to be the prime cause of unsustainable forest exploitation in Ethiopia. Yet there exist well-established systems and a wealth of local experience in maintaining and managing forests. This study explores the trends and driving forces of deforestation plus traditional practices regarding sustainable forest use and management in the Chencha and Arbaminch areas, Southern Ethiopia. Satellite image analysis (images from 1972, 1984 and 2006) combined with field surveys were used to detect and map changes in forest cover. Household interviews and group discussions with experienced and knowledgeable persons were also employed. The results show a 23 % decline in forest cover between 1972 and 2006 with the most significant change from 1986 to 2006. Change was greatest in the lowlands and remarkable episodic forest changes also occurred, suggesting nonlinear spatial and temporal forest cover dynamics. According to farmers, the main driver of deforestation is agricultural land expansion in response to local population increases and a decline in agricultural production. Growing local and regional fuel wood demand is another chief cause. Despite these issues, remarkable relicts of natural forests remain and trees on farmland, around homesteads and on fields in every village are basic elements of farm activities and social systems. This demonstrates the effect of cumulative traditional knowledge and long-term local experience with forest management and preservation. Therefore, these practices should be promoted and advanced through the integration of local knowledge and forest management practices in the design and implementation of sustainable environmental planning and management.

  8. The consequences of poaching and anthropogenic change for forest elephants.

    PubMed

    Breuer, Thomas; Maisels, Fiona; Fishlock, Vicki

    2016-10-01

    Poaching has devastated forest elephant populations (Loxodonta cyclotis), and their habitat is dramatically changing. The long-term effects of poaching and other anthropogenic threats have been well studied in savannah elephants (Loxodonta africana), but the impacts of these changes for Central Africa's forest elephants have not been discussed. We examined potential repercussions of these threats and the related consequences for forest elephants in Central Africa by summarizing the lessons learned from savannah elephants and small forest elephant populations in West Africa. Forest elephant social organization is less known than the social organization of savannah elephants, but the close evolutionary history of these species suggests that they will respond to anthropogenic threats in broadly similar ways. The loss of older, experienced individuals in an elephant population disrupts ecological, social, and population parameters. Severe reduction of elephant abundance within Central Africa's forests can alter plant communities and ecosystem functions. Poaching, habitat alterations, and human population increase are probably compressing forest elephants into protected areas and increasing human-elephant conflict, which negatively affects their conservation. We encourage conservationists to look beyond documenting forest elephant population decline and address the causes of these declines when developing conversation strategies. We suggest assessing the effectiveness of the existing protected-area networks for landscape connectivity in light of current industrial and infrastructure development. Longitudinal assessments of the effects of landscape changes on forest elephant sociality and behavior are also needed. Finally, lessons learned from West African elephant population loss and habitat fragmentation should be used to inform strategies for land-use planning and managing human-elephant interactions. PMID:26801000

  9. Thinned forests enhance snow retention in warmer climates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lundquist, J. D.; Dickerson, S.; Cristea, N. C.; Lutz, J.

    2012-12-01

    Forest management has the potential to both mitigate climate change effects and optimize water management. Climate models project warmer winter temperatures leading to earlier snow disappearance from the landscape, which can have deleterious effects on human and natural systems, including a loss of soil insulation, declines in surface albedo, loss of late-season soil moisture for ecosystem health, and declines in late-season streamflow. Managing forests to keep snow on the ground longer would provide a mitigation strategy potentially much less costly than other options. Forests intercept snow and emit longwave radiation but also shelter snow from wind and solar radiation. Thus, decreased accumulation under trees is generally offset by decreased melt rates, but different processes dominate in different settings. The variable net effects of forests on snowpacks have led to apparently conflicting conclusions regarding whether tree removal results in longer- or shorter-lasting snow. Here we combine a meta-analysis of observational studies across the globe with modeling to show that in regions with above-freezing winter temperatures and low wind speeds, forest thinning unequivocally increases snow duration by decreasing longwave radiation and minimizing mid-winter melt. In many locations, mid-winter melt removes forest snow before solar radiation is great enough for forest shading to matter, and with warming temperatures, mid-winter melt is likely to become more common. Past and present management practices of fire suppression and timber harvesting have led to overly dense forests. Our research clearly demonstrates locations where treating forests by either thinning or controlled burning would increase snow retention on the landscape, helping provide lasting water supplies in spite of warming temperatures.

  10. Mangrove forest distributions and dynamics in Madagascar (1975-2005)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Giri, C.; Muhlhausen, J.

    2008-01-01

    Mangrove forests of Madagascar are declining, albeit at a much slower rate than the global average. The forests are declining due to conversion to other land uses and forest degradation. However, accurate and reliable information on their present distribution and their rates, causes, and consequences of change have not been available. Earlier studies used remotely sensed data to map and, in some cases, to monitor mangrove forests at a local scale. Nonetheless, a comprehensive national assessment and synthesis was lacking. We interpreted time-series satellite data of 1975, 1990, 2000, and 2005 using a hybrid supervised and unsupervised classification approach. Landsat data were geometrically corrected to an accuracy of ?? one-half pixel, an accuracy necessary for change analysis. We used a postclassification change detection approach. Our results showed that Madagascar lost 7% of mangrove forests from 1975 to 2005, to a present extent of ???2,797 km2. Deforestation rates and causes varied both spatially and temporally. The forests increased by 5.6% (212 km2) from 1975 to 1990, decreased by 14.3% (455 km 2) from 1990 to 2000, and decreased by 2.6% (73 km2) from 2000 to 2005. Similarly, major changes occurred in Bombekota Bay, Mahajamba Bay, the coast of Ambanja, the Tsiribihina River, and Cap St Vincent. The main factors responsible for mangrove deforestation include conversion to agriculture (35%), logging (16%), conversion to aquaculture (3%), and urban development (1%). ?? 2008 by MDPI.

  11. Photosynthetic seasonality of global tropical forests constrained by hydroclimate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guan, Kaiyu; Pan, Ming; Li, Haibin; Wolf, Adam; Wu, Jin; Medvigy, David; Caylor, Kelly K.; Sheffield, Justin; Wood, Eric F.; Malhi, Yadvinder; Liang, Miaoling; Kimball, John S.; Saleska, Scott R.; Berry, Joe; Joiner, Joanna; Lyapustin, Alexei I.

    2015-04-01

    The response of tropical forests to droughts is highly uncertain. During the dry season, canopy photosynthesis of some tropical forests can decline, whereas in others it can be maintained at the same or a higher level than during the wet season. However, it remains uncertain to what extent water availability is responsible for productivity declines of tropical forests during the dry season. Here we use global satellite observations of two independent measures of vegetation photosynthetic properties (enhanced vegetation index from 2002 to 2012 and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence from 2007 to 2012) to investigate links between hydroclimate and tropical forest productivity. We find that above an annual rainfall threshold of approximately 2,000 mm yr-1, the evergreen state is sustained during the dry season in tropical rainforests worldwide, whereas below that threshold, this is not the case. Through a water-budget analysis of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and satellite measurements of water storage change, we demonstrate that this threshold determines whether the supply of seasonally redistributed subsurface water storage from the wet season can satisfy plant water demands in the subsequent dry season. We conclude that water availability exerts a first-order control on vegetation seasonality in tropical forests globally. Our framework can also help identify where tropical forests may be vulnerable or resilient to future hydroclimatic changes.

  12. Central America's shrinking forests.

    PubMed

    1992-01-01

    This news brief reports that 66% of deforestation in Central America has happened in the past 40 years, based on World Conservation Union (WCU) data. Deforestation is expected to continue. The population of Central America and Mexico grew by 28% between 1977 and 1987. Growth is decreasing but remains high at 2.5% in all countries of the region except Panama. 29 million was the regional population in 1990; the projection is for 63 million by 2025. Population is migrating to urban centers. Forests declined by 13% and croplands increased from 4% to 13% of total land area and pasture land from 2% to 37%. There was an increase in unproductive land from 145 to 24%, i.e., 50% of El Salvador's land had soil degradation as does 30% of Guatemala's. In addition to deforestation and soil degradation, there has been soil erosion leading to sedimentation buildup near dam sites and in rivers, which diminishes hydroelectric power capability. Silting also affects groundwater resources, which impact on a safe drinking water supply. Population growth results in increased demand for fuelwood, urban land, and agricultural land. New techniques practiced widely are needed in order to meet the region's needs or demands. Slowing population growth buys time for adjusting to the necessary changes needed for sustaining the region's population. WCU urges conservation organizations to raise awareness about the role population plays in environmental degradation, and to support efforts to reduce birth rates. Women's status needs to be improved through income-generating projects, for instance, and cooperation is needed between conservation groups and organizations involved with improving maternal and child health. PMID:12285833

  13. The Children's Rain Forest.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thornton, Carol A.; And Others

    1995-01-01

    Describes a unit on rain forests in which first graders studied about rain forests, built a classroom rain forest, and created a bulletin board. They also graphed rainfall, estimated body water, and estimated the number of newspapers that could be produced from one canopy tree. (MKR)

  14. Declining incidence of acromioplasty in Finland

    PubMed Central

    Paloneva, Juha; Lepola, Vesa; Karppinen, Jaro; Ylinen, Jari; Äärimaa, Ville; Mattila, Ville M

    2015-01-01

    Background and purpose An increased incidence rate of acromioplasty has been reported; we analyzed data from the Finnish National Hospital Discharge Register. Patients and methods During the 14-year study period (1998–2011), 68,877 acromioplasties without rotator cuff repair were performed on subjects aged 18 years or older. Results The incidence of acromioplasty increased by 117% from 75 to 163 per 105 person years between 1998 and 2007. The highest incidence was observed in 2007, after which the incidence rate decreased by 20% to 131 per 105 person years in 2011. The incidence declined even more at non-profit public hospitals from 2007 to 2011. In contrast, it continued to rise at profit-based private orthopedic clinics. Interpretation We propose that this change in clinical practice is due to accumulating high-quality scientific evidence that shows no difference in outcome between acromioplasty and non-surgical interventions for rotator cuff disease with subacromial impingement syndrome. However, the exact cause of the declining incidence cannot be defined based solely on a registry study. Interestingly, this change was not observed at private clinics, where the number of operations increased steadily from 2007 to 2011. PMID:25340548

  15. The impact of freedom on fertility decline.

    PubMed

    Campbell, Martha M; Prata, Ndola; Potts, Malcolm

    2013-01-01

    Although fertility decline often correlates with improvements in socioeconomic conditions, many demographers have found flaws in demographic transition theories that depend on changes in distal factors such as increased wealth or education. Human beings worldwide engage in sexual intercourse much more frequently than is needed to conceive the number of children they want, and for women who do not have access to the information and means they need to separate sex from childbearing, the default position is a large family. In many societies, male patriarchal drives to control female reproduction give rise to unnecessary medical rules constraining family planning (including safe abortion) or justifying child marriage. Widespread misinformation about contraception makes women afraid to adopt modern family planning. The barriers to family planning can be so deeply infused that for many women the idea of managing their fertility is not considered an option. Conversely, there is evidence that once family planning is introduced into a society, then it is normal consumer behaviour for individuals to welcome a new technology they had not wanted until it became realistically available. We contend that in societies free from child marriage, wherever women have access to a range of contraceptive methods, along with correct information and backed up by safe abortion, family size will always fall. Education and wealth can make the adoption of family planning easier, but they are not prerequisites for fertility decline. By contrast, access to family planning itself can accelerate economic development and the spread of education. PMID:23296851

  16. Declining suburbs in Europe and Latin America.

    PubMed

    Audirac, Ivonne; Cunningham-Sabot, Emmanuèle; Fol, Sylvie; Moraes, Sergio Torres

    2012-01-01

    Suburban shrinkage, understood as a degenerative urban process stemming from the demise of the Fordist mode of urbanism, is generally manifested in a decline in population, industry and employment. It is also intimately linked to the global restructuring of industrial organization associated with the rise of the post-Fordist mode of urbanism and, more recently, the thrust of Asian industrialization. Framed in the discourse of industrial urbanism, this article examines the first ring of industrial suburbs that developed around large cities in their most rapid Fordist urbanization phase. These industrial suburbs, although they were formed at different times, are today experiencing specific mutations and undergoing profound restructuring on account of their particular spatial position between the central area and the expanding peripheries of the post-Fordist metropolis. This article describes and compares suburban decline in two European cities (Glasgow and Paris) and two Latin American Cities (São Paulo, Brazil and Guadalajara, Mexico), as different instances of places asymmetrically and fragmentarily integrated into the geography of globalization. PMID:22518882

  17. [A cure for declining fertility. Pt. 2].

    PubMed

    Ransford, E

    1981-04-15

    Fertility decline, the natural consequence of an overemphasis on material comfort, has 5 main causes: parenthood has become a voluntary act; the emphasis on the quality of children has resulted in ever heavier parental responsibilities; the traditional sense of the family is gone; the social role of women has changed; and a generalized and diffuse moroseness has invaded the social tissue. Reversing the fertility decline requires a new social justice, which will merely return true freedom of choice. Because mothers of large families, honored in traditional societies, are today scorned and despised, there is no real freedom of procreative choice. A family policy worthy of the name would insure more just distribution of wealth in favor of those who contribute to the collective survival by bringing up future generations. Tax laws, urbanization patterns, female and parental work, and the numerous social goods and services should be adapted to the needs of family life and children. Also needed to encourage couples to have numerous families is a sense of cultural rootedness, of ethnic identity, that has largely been lost to technoindustrial society. Although the vision of history from which these reflections spring is materialist and determinist, it differs from a Marxist viewpoint in that it views history in terms of emphases rather than of relations of domination or force. PMID:12265401

  18. The cultural evolution of fertility decline

    PubMed Central

    Colleran, Heidi

    2016-01-01

    Cultural evolutionists have long been interested in the problem of why fertility declines as populations develop. By outlining plausible mechanistic links between individual decision-making, information flow in populations and competition between groups, models of cultural evolution offer a novel and powerful approach for integrating multiple levels of explanation of fertility transitions. However, only a modest number of models have been published. Their assumptions often differ from those in other evolutionary approaches to social behaviour, but their empirical predictions are often similar. Here I offer the first overview of cultural evolutionary research on demographic transition, critically compare it with approaches taken by other evolutionary researchers, identify gaps and overlaps, and highlight parallel debates in demography. I suggest that researchers divide their labour between three distinct phases of fertility decline—the origin, spread and maintenance of low fertility—each of which may be driven by different causal processes, at different scales, requiring different theoretical and empirical tools. A comparative, multi-level and mechanistic framework is essential for elucidating both the evolved aspects of our psychology that govern reproductive decision-making, and the social, ecological and cultural contingencies that precipitate and sustain fertility decline. PMID:27022079

  19. Musculoskeletal health, frailty and functional decline.

    PubMed

    Milte, R; Crotty, M

    2014-06-01

    Frailty in older people is associated with a vulnerability to adverse events. While ageing is associated with a loss of physiological reserves, identifying those with the syndrome of frailty has the potential to assist clinicians to tailor treatments to those at the risk of future decline into disability with an increased risk of complications, morbidity and mortality. Sarcopenia is a key component of the frailty syndrome and on its own puts older people at risk of fragility fractures; however, the clinical syndrome of frailty affects the musculoskeletal and non-musculoskeletal systems. Hip fractures are becoming a prototype condition in the study of frailty. Following a hip fracture, many of the interventions are focused on limiting mobility disability and restoring independence with activities of daily living, but there are multiple factors to be addressed including osteoporosis, sarcopenia, delirium and weight loss. Established techniques of geriatric evaluation and management allow systematic assessment and intervention on multiple components by multidisciplinary teams and deliver the best outcomes. Using the concept of frailty to identify older people with musculoskeletal problems as being at the risk of a poor outcome assists in treatment planning and is likely to become more important as effective pharmacological treatments for sarcopenia emerge. This review will focus on the concept of frailty and its relationship with functional decline, as well as describing its causes, prevalence, risk factors, potential clinical applications and treatment strategies. PMID:25481423

  20. The effects of drought on Amazonian rain forests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meir, P.; Brando, P. M.; Nepstad, D.; Vasconcelos, S.; Costa, A. C. L.; Davidson, E.; Almeida, S.; Fisher, R. A.; Sotta, E. D.; Zarin, D.; Cardinot, G.

    The functioning of Amazonian rain forest ecosystems during drought has become a scientific focal point because of associated risks to forest integrity and climate. We review current understanding of drought impacts on Amazon rain forests by summarising the results from two throughfall exclusion (TFE) experiments in old-growth rain forests at Caxiuanã and Tapajós National Forest Reserves, and an irrigation experiment in secondary forest, near Castanhal, Brazil. Soil physical properties strongly influenced drought impacts at each site. Over years 1 to 3 of soil moisture reduction, leaf area index declined by 20-30% at the TFE sites. Leaf physiology and tree mortality results suggested some species-based differences in drought resistance. Mortality was initially resistant to drought but increased after 3 years at Tapajós to 9%, followed by a decline. Transpiration and gross primary production were reduced under TFE at Caxiuanã by 30-40% and 12-13%, respectively, and the maximum fire risk at Tapajós increased from 0.27 to 0.47. Drought reduced soil CO2 emissions by more than 20% at Caxiuanã and Castanhal but not at Tapajós, where N2O and CH4 emissions declined. Overall, the results indicate short-term resistance to drought with reduced productivity, but that increased mortality is likely under substantial, multiyear, reductions in rainfall. These data sets from field-scale experimental manipulations uniquely complement existing observations from Amazonia and will become increasingly powerful if the experiments are extended. Estimating the long-term (decadal-scale) impacts of continued drought on Amazonian forests will also require integrated models to couple changes in vegetation, climate, land management, and fire risk.

  1. Effects of Climate Variability and Accelerated Forest Thinning on Watershed-Scale Runoff in Southwestern USA Ponderosa Pine Forests

    PubMed Central

    Robles, Marcos D.; Marshall, Robert M.; O'Donnell, Frances; Smith, Edward B.; Haney, Jeanmarie A.; Gori, David F.

    2014-01-01

    The recent mortality of up to 20% of forests and woodlands in the southwestern United States, along with declining stream flows and projected future water shortages, heightens the need to understand how management practices can enhance forest resilience and functioning under unprecedented scales of drought and wildfire. To address this challenge, a combination of mechanical thinning and fire treatments are planned for 238,000 hectares (588,000 acres) of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests across central Arizona, USA. Mechanical thinning can increase runoff at fine scales, as well as reduce fire risk and tree water stress during drought, but the effects of this practice have not been studied at scales commensurate with recent forest disturbances or under a highly variable climate. Modifying a historical runoff model, we constructed scenarios to estimate increases in runoff from thinning ponderosa pine at the landscape and watershed scales based on driving variables: pace, extent and intensity of forest treatments and variability in winter precipitation. We found that runoff on thinned forests was about 20% greater than unthinned forests, regardless of whether treatments occurred in a drought or pluvial period. The magnitude of this increase is similar to observed declines in snowpack for the region, suggesting that accelerated thinning may lessen runoff losses due to warming effects. Gains in runoff were temporary (six years after treatment) and modest when compared to mean annual runoff from the study watersheds (0–3%). Nonetheless gains observed during drought periods could play a role in augmenting river flows on a seasonal basis, improving conditions for water-dependent natural resources, as well as benefit water supplies for downstream communities. Results of this study and others suggest that accelerated forest thinning at large scales could improve the water balance and resilience of forests and sustain the ecosystem services they provide. PMID

  2. Foraging behavior of three passerines in mature bottomland hardwood forests during summer.

    SciTech Connect

    Buffington, J., Matthew; Kilgo, John, C.; Sargent, Robert, A.; Miller, Karl, V.; Chapman, Brian, R.

    2001-08-01

    Attention has focused on forest management practices and the interactions between birds and their habitat, as a result of apparent declines in populations of many forest birds. Although avian diversity and abundance have been studied in various forest habitats, avian foraging behavior is less well known. Although there are published descriptions of avian foraging behaviors in the western United States descriptions from the southeastern United States are less common. This article reports on the foraging behavior of the White-eyed Vireo, Northern Parula, and Hooded Warbler in mature bottomland hardwood forests in South Carolina.

  3. Hyperspectral sensing of forests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goodenough, David G.; Dyk, Andrew; Chen, Hao; Hobart, Geordie; Niemann, K. Olaf; Richardson, Ash

    2007-11-01

    Canada contains 10% of the world's forests covering an area of 418 million hectares. The sustainable management of these forest resources has become increasingly complex. Hyperspectral remote sensing can provide a wealth of new and improved information products to resource managers to make more informed decisions. Research in this area has demonstrated that hyperspectral remote sensing can be used to create more accurate products for forest inventory, forest health, foliar biochemistry, biomass, and aboveground carbon than are currently available. This paper surveys recent methods and results in hyperspectral sensing of forests and describes space initiatives for hyperspectral sensing.

  4. Decline in Senses Affects Nearly All Seniors, Study Finds

    MedlinePlus

    ... fullstory_157426.html Decline in Senses Affects Nearly All Seniors, Study Finds Researchers say losses in taste, ... 2016 TUESDAY, Feb. 23, 2016 (HealthDay News) -- Nearly all older U.S. adults have an age-related decline ...

  5. Decline in Kelp in West Europe and Climate

    PubMed Central

    Raybaud, Virginie; Beaugrand, Grégory; Goberville, Eric; Delebecq, Gaspard; Destombe, Christophe; Valero, Myriam; Davoult, Dominique; Morin, Pascal; Gevaert, François

    2013-01-01

    Kelp ecosystems form widespread underwater forests playing a major role in structuring the biodiversity at a regional scale. Some seaweeds such as Laminaria digitata are also economically important, being exploited for their alginate and iodine content. Although some studies have shown that kelp ecosystems are regressing and that multiple causes are likely to be at the origin of the disappearance of certain populations, the extent to which global climate change may play a role remains speculative. Here we show that many populations of L. digitata along European coasts are on the verge of local extinction due to a climate-caused increase in sea temperature. By modeling the spatial distribution of the seaweed, we evaluate the possible implications of global climate change for the geographical patterns of the species using temperature data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Projections of the future range of L. digitata throughout the 21st century show large shifts in the suitable habitat of the kelp and a northward retreat of the southern limit of its current geographic distribution from France to Danish coasts and the southern regions of the United Kingdom. However, these projections depend on the intensity of warming. A medium to high warming is expected to lead to the extirpation of the species as early as the first half of the 21st century and there is high confidence that regional extinction will spread northwards by the end of this century. These changes are likely to cause the decline of species whose life cycle is closely dependent upon L. digitata and lead to the establishment of new ecosystems with lower ecological and economic values. PMID:23840397

  6. Possible environmental factors underlying amphibian decline in eastern Puerto Rico: Analysis of U.S. government data archives

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stallard, R.F.

    2001-01-01

    The past three decades have seen major declines in populations of several species of amphibians at high elevations in eastern Puerto Rico, a region unique in the humid tropics because of the degree of environmental monitoring that has taken place through the efforts of U.S. government agencies. I examined changes in environmental conditions by examining time-series data sets that extend back at least into the 1980s, a period when frog populations were declining. The data include forest cover; annual mean, minimum, and maximum daily temperature; annual rainfall; rain and stream chemistry; and atmospheric-dust transport. I examined satellite imagery and air-chemistry samples from a single National Aeronautics and Space Administration aircraft flight across the Caribbean showing patches of pollutants, described as thin sheets or lenses, in the lower troposphere. The main source of these pollutants appeared to be fires from land clearing and deforestation, primarily in Africa. Some pollutant concentrations were high and, in the case of ozone, approached health limits set for urban air. Urban pollution impinging on Puerto Rico, dust generation from Africa (potential soil pathogens), and tropical forest burning (gaseous pollutants) have all increased during the last three decades, overlapping the timing of amphibian declines in eastern Puerto Rico. None of the data sets pointed directly to changes so extreme that they might be considered a direct lethal cause of amphibian declines in Puerto Rico. More experimental research is required to link any of these environmental factors to this problem.

  7. Climate change, cedar decline, and geomorphic response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, A. C.; Wittwer, D.; Hennon, P.; D'Amore, D.; Edwards, R.

    2006-12-01

    Yellow-cedar (Chamaecyparis nootkatensis) growing at elevations less than 300 m in southeast Alaska and British Columbia are dying. The onset of death, dating back to the late 1800's, corresponds to a warming trend at the end of the Little Ice Age. Approximately 200,000 ha of dying pristine forests are located in regions having little snow pack during winter and spring. It is hypothesized that a reduction in insulating affects of snow during cold periods has increased root damage. Loss of roots and subsequent death of trees have resulted in increased landslide frequencies on steeper hillsides. Death of trees also is associated with increased soil moisture. Two models are currently being developed with detailed LiDar terrain maps to elucidate various hydrologic factors associated with death of this valuable tree species.

  8. Conceptualizing Forest Degradation.

    PubMed

    Ghazoul, Jaboury; Burivalova, Zuzana; Garcia-Ulloa, John; King, Lisa A

    2015-10-01

    Forest degradation is a global environmental issue, but its definition is problematic. Difficulties include choosing appropriate reference states, timescales, thresholds, and forest values. We dispense with many such ambiguities by interpreting forest degradation through the frame of ecological resilience, and with reference to forest dynamics. Specifically, we define forest degradation as a state of anthropogenically induced arrested succession, where ecological processes that underlie forest dynamics are diminished or severely constrained. Metrics of degradation might include those that reflect ecological processes shaping community dynamics, notably the regeneration of plant species. Arrested succession implies that management intervention is necessary to recover successional trajectories. Such a definition can be applied to any forest ecosystem, and can also be extended to other ecosystems. PMID:26411619

  9. The empty forest revisited.

    PubMed

    Wilkie, David S; Bennett, Elizabeth L; Peres, Carlos A; Cunningham, Andrew A

    2011-03-01

    Tropical forests are among the most species-rich ecosystems on the planet. Some authors argue that predictions of a tropical forest extinction crisis based on analyses of deforestation rates are overly pessimistic since they do not take account of future agricultural abandonment as a result of rural-urban migration and subsequent secondary regrowth. Even if such regrowth occurs, it is crucial to consider threats to species that are not directly correlated with area of forest cover. Hunting is an insidious but significant driver of tropical forest defaunation, risking cascading changes in forest plant and animal composition. Ineffective legislation and enforcement along with a failure of decision makers to address the threats of hunting is fanning the fire of a tropical forest extinction crisis. If tropical forest ecosystems are to survive, the threat of unsustainable hunting must be adequately addressed now. PMID:21449969

  10. Ectomycorrhizal root development in wet Alder carr forests in response to desiccation and eutrophication.

    PubMed

    Baar, J; Bastiaans, T; van de Coevering, M A; Roelofs, J G M

    2002-06-01

    Effects of desiccation and eutrophication on ectomycorrhizal (ECM) root development in wet Alder carr forests in The Netherlands were studied. In northwestern Europe, wet Alder carr forests are found mostly in peatlands and along streams, forming an important component of wetland ecosystems. The dominant tree species in wet Alder carr forests is Alnus glutinosa (L.) Gaertn. (Black alder), which associates with ectomycorrhizal fungi. During recent decades, wet Alder carr forests in Europe have declined because of desiccation and eutrophication, particularly in The Netherlands. In the present study, the number of root tips of A. glutinosa trees was highest in an undisturbed wet Alder carr forest in a peatland area. Eutrophication in the peatland area significantly inhibited ectomycorrhizal (ECM) root development of A. glutinosa. In the eutrophied forest, ECM root tips were observed only close to A. glutinosa trees growing on hummocks. The concentrations of nitrate and potassium in soil water of the eutrophied forest were significantly higher than in the undisturbed forest, while magnesium and iron concentrations and the pH were significantly lower. The number of ECM root tips of A. glutinosa in a desiccated forest along a stream was generally lower than in an undisturbed wet Alder carr forest on waterlogged soil in the same area. The sulphate concentration in soil water in the desiccated forest was significantly higher than in the forest on waterlogged soil. ECM root development of A. glutinosa may have been negatively affected by the chemical composition of the soil water. PMID:12072985

  11. Managing forests as ecosystems: A success story or a challenge ahead?

    SciTech Connect

    Dale, V.H.

    1997-10-01

    To manage forests as ecosystems, the many values they hold for different users must be recognized, and they must be used so that those assets are not destroyed. Important ecosystem features of forests include nutrient cycling, habitat, succession, and water quality. Over time, the ways in which humans value forests have changed as forest uses have altered and as forests have declined in size and quality. Both ecosystem science and forest ecology have developed approaches that are useful to manage forests to retain their value. A historical perspective shows how changes in ecology, legislation, and technology have resulted in modern forest-management practices. However, current forest practices are still a decade or so behind current ecosystem science. Ecologists have done a good job of transferring their theories and approaches to the forest manager classroom but have done a poor job of translating these concepts into practice. Thus, the future for ecosystem management requires a closer linkage between ecologists and other disciplines. For example, the changing ways in which humans value forests are the primary determinant of forest-management policies. Therefore, if ecologists are to understand how ecosystem science can influence these policies, they must work closely with social scientists trained to assess human values.

  12. Migraine and cognitive decline: A topical review

    PubMed Central

    Rist, Pamela M.; Kurth, Tobias

    2013-01-01

    Migraine has been linked with an increased risk of stroke and an increased prevalence of clinically silent brain lesions and white matter hyperintensities. As it is known that stroke and structural brain lesions are associated with an increased risk of cognitive decline, it has been hypothesized that migraine may be a progressive brain disorder and associated with an increased risk of cognitive impairment. Given the prevalence of migraine in the population, especially among women, and the aging of the population, an association between migraine and cognitive impairment would have substantial public health implications. In this review, we will summarize the existing evidence evaluating the association between migraine and cognitive function. Additionally, we will discuss methodological issues in migraine and cognitive function assessment and elaborate on study design strategies to address this important question. PMID:23405909

  13. Consequences of Age-Related Cognitive Declines

    PubMed Central

    Salthouse, Timothy

    2013-01-01

    Adult age differences in a variety of cognitive abilities are well documented, and many of those abilities have been found to be related to success in the workplace and in everyday life. However, increased age is seldom associated with lower levels of real-world functioning, and the reasons for this lab-life discrepancy are not well understood. This article briefly reviews research concerned with relations of age to cognition, relations of cognition to successful functioning outside the laboratory, and relations of age to measures of work performance and achievement. The final section discusses several possible explanations for why there are often little or no consequences of age-related cognitive declines in everyday functioning. PMID:21740223

  14. Emergence and decline of scientific paradigms.

    PubMed

    Bornholdt, S; Jensen, M H; Sneppen, K

    2011-02-01

    Scientific paradigms have a tendency to rise fast and decline slowly. This asymmetry reflects the difficulty in developing a truly original idea, compared to the ease at which a concept can be eroded by numerous modifications. Here we formulate a model for the emergence and spread of ideas which deals with this asymmetry by constraining the ability of agents to return to already abandoned concepts. The model exhibits a fairly regular pattern of global paradigm shifts, where older paradigms are eroded and subsequently replaced by new ones. The model sets the theme for a new class of pattern formation models, where local dynamics breaks the detailed balance in a way that prevents old states from defending themselves against new nucleating or invading states. The model allows for frozen events in terms of the coexistence of multiple metastable states. PMID:21405444

  15. Emergence and Decline of Scientific Paradigms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bornholdt, S.; Jensen, M. H.; Sneppen, K.

    2011-02-01

    Scientific paradigms have a tendency to rise fast and decline slowly. This asymmetry reflects the difficulty in developing a truly original idea, compared to the ease at which a concept can be eroded by numerous modifications. Here we formulate a model for the emergence and spread of ideas which deals with this asymmetry by constraining the ability of agents to return to already abandoned concepts. The model exhibits a fairly regular pattern of global paradigm shifts, where older paradigms are eroded and subsequently replaced by new ones. The model sets the theme for a new class of pattern formation models, where local dynamics breaks the detailed balance in a way that prevents old states from defending themselves against new nucleating or invading states. The model allows for frozen events in terms of the coexistence of multiple metastable states.

  16. Catastrophic ecosystem shifts in dry tropical forest: evidence, mechanisms and implications for climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lawrence, D.; D'Odorico, P.; Runyan, C.; Diekmann, L.; DeLonge, M. S.; Das, R.; Eaton, J.; Vandecar, K.; Schmook, B.

    2015-12-01

    Tropical dry forests have long been used by humans. Has it been sustainable? Not in the southern Yucatan. Biomass accumulation declines with each cycle of shifting cultivation with implications for both internal recycling of nutrients and external inputs of nutrients. We detail the evidence for a decline in P inputs from biomass burning (aboveground biomass, litter, and coarse woody debris), an increase in leaching losses from deep soils, and a decline in atmospheric inputs of new P from Saharan dust following the transition from mature to secondary forest. Canopy trapping of dust is critical to maintaining P balance in this system. Effective trapping is diminished by changes in the structure of secondary forest--loss of height, leaf area and basal area. Experimental studies show that it is atmospheric transport of dust, not microbial shedding or leaching from live tissues, that explains the difference between throughfall P and P in bulk deposition. Because of net losses in P, uptake of carbon during regrowth is slower with each cycle of shifting cultivation. As much of the tropics has moved beyond a mature forest frontier, the decline in carbon sequestration is likely widespread over both dry and wet forests. The terrestrial carbon sink in the tropics may be declining. The capacity to sequester carbon through afforestation, reforestation and restoration has certainly diminished over time, limiting the effectiveness of such efforts to help mitigate climate change.

  17. The Declining Infrastructure of the Aging Brain

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Great effort has been dedicated to mapping the functional architecture of the brain in health and disease. The neural centers that support cognition and behavior are the “hubs” defining the salient geographic landmarks of the cerebral topography. Similar to urban cartography, however, the functionality of these hubs is critically dependent on the infrastructure permitting the transfer of relevant information from site to site, and this infrastructure is susceptible to deterioration. The groundwork of the brain lies in the form of the complexly organized myelinated nerve fibers responsible for the inter-regional transmission of electrical impulses among distinct neural areas. Damage to the myelin sheath and reduction in the total number of nerve fibers with aging are thought to result in a degradation in the efficiency of communication among neural regions and to contribute to the decline of function in older adults. This article describes selected studies that are relevant to understanding the deterioration in structural connectivity of the aging brain with a focus on potential consequences to functional network activity. First, the neural substrates of connectivity and techniques used in the study of connectivity are described with a focus on neuroimaging methodologies. This is followed with discussion of the negative effects of age on connective integrity, and the possible mechanisms and neural and cognitive consequences of this progressive disconnection. Given the potential for natural repair of certain elements of the connective network, understanding the basis of age-associated decline in connectivity could have important implications with regard to the amelioration of neural dysfunction and the restoration of the infrastructure necessary for optimal function in older adults. PMID:22432418

  18. Surprising decline in Iran's growth rates.

    PubMed

    Roudi, F

    1997-11-01

    According to Iran's 1996 census, the country's population was 60 million, about 6-7 million people fewer than estimates used by the UN and other international organizations. These findings surprised Iranian demographers and have been examined with skepticism outside of the country. However, if Iran's 1986 and 1996 censuses are comparable and children were not undercounted, these results indicate a remarkable decline in fertility. The proportion of Iran's population under age 5 years fell from 18% in 1986 to 10% in 1996. An Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, Paris, study published in 1996 estimated that Iran's total fertility rate (TFR) fell from an average of 6.2 children/woman in 1986 to 3.5 in 1993. However, based upon analyses of sample surveys, the Iranian government's health ministry reported that the TFR dropped from 5.0 in 1991 to 3.3 in 1995. Irrespective of questions over the magnitude of Iran's fertility decline, it is clear that the Iranian government is committed to limiting population growth. The UN Population Fund considers Iran's family planning program to be one of the world's best-functioning, with the Ministry of Health Care and Medical Education providing free contraceptives. A bill was passed in 1993 which penalizes couples who have more than 3 children and posters around the country encourage the one- or two-child family. Iran's family planning program is integrated into the national primary health care system and provides a broad range of reproductive health services to women. The program is also the only one in the region which promotes both male and female sterilization. PMID:12321257

  19. The decline in child mortality: a reappraisal.

    PubMed Central

    Ahmad, O. B.; Lopez, A. D.; Inoue, M.

    2000-01-01

    The present paper examines, describes and documents country-specific trends in under-five mortality rates (i.e., mortality among children under five years of age) in the 1990s. Our analysis updates previous studies by UNICEF, the World Bank and the United Nations. It identifies countries and WHO regions where sustained improvement has occurred and those where setbacks are evident. A consistent series of estimates of under-five mortality rate is provided and an indication is given of historical trends during the period 1950-2000 for both developed and developing countries. It is estimated that 10.5 million children aged 0-4 years died in 1999, about 2.2 million or 17.5% fewer than a decade earlier. On average about 15% of newborn children in Africa are expected to die before reaching their fifth birthday. The corresponding figures for many other parts of the developing world are in the range 3-8% and that for Europe is under 2%. During the 1990s the decline in child mortality decelerated in all the WHO regions except the Western Pacific but there is no widespread evidence of rising child mortality rates. At the country level there are exceptions in southern Africa where the prevalence of HIV is extremely high and in Asia where a few countries are beset by economic difficulties. The slowdown in the rate of decline is of particular concern in Africa and South-East Asia because it is occurring at relatively high levels of mortality, and in countries experiencing severe economic dislocation. As the HIV/AIDS epidemic continues in Africa, particularly southern Africa, and in parts of Asia, further reductions in child mortality become increasingly unlikely until substantial progress in controlling the spread of HIV is achieved. PMID:11100613

  20. Land-cover changes predict steep declines for the Sumatran orangutan (Pongo abelii)

    PubMed Central

    Wich, Serge A.; Singleton, Ian; Nowak, Matthew G.; Utami Atmoko, Sri Suci; Nisam, Gonda; Arif, Sugesti Mhd.; Putra, Rudi H.; Ardi, Rio; Fredriksson, Gabriella; Usher, Graham; Gaveau, David L. A.; Kühl, Hjalmar S.

    2016-01-01

    Positive news about Sumatran orangutans is rare. The species is critically endangered because of forest loss and poaching, and therefore, determining the impact of future land-use change on this species is important. To date, the total Sumatran orangutan population has been estimated at 6600 individuals. On the basis of new transect surveys, we estimate a population of 14,613 in 2015. This higher estimate is due to three factors. First, orangutans were found at higher elevations, elevations previously considered outside of their range and, consequently, not surveyed previously. Second, orangutans were found more widely distributed in logged forests. Third, orangutans were found in areas west of the Toba Lake that were not previously surveyed. This increase in numbers is therefore due to a more wide-ranging survey effort and is not indicative of an increase in the orangutan population in Sumatra. There are evidently more Sumatran orangutans remaining in the wild than we thought, but the species remains under serious threat. Current scenarios for future forest loss predict that as many as 4500 individuals could vanish by 2030. Despite the positive finding that the population is double the size previously estimated, our results indicate that future deforestation will continue to be the cause of rapid declines in orangutan numbers. Hence, we urge that all developmental planning involving forest loss be accompanied by appropriate environmental impact assessments conforming with the current national and provincial legislations, and, through these, implement specific measures to reduce or, better, avoid negative impacts on forests where orangutans occur. PMID:26973868

  1. Land-cover changes predict steep declines for the Sumatran orangutan (Pongo abelii).

    PubMed

    Wich, Serge A; Singleton, Ian; Nowak, Matthew G; Utami Atmoko, Sri Suci; Nisam, Gonda; Arif, Sugesti Mhd; Putra, Rudi H; Ardi, Rio; Fredriksson, Gabriella; Usher, Graham; Gaveau, David L A; Kühl, Hjalmar S

    2016-03-01

    Positive news about Sumatran orangutans is rare. The species is critically endangered because of forest loss and poaching, and therefore, determining the impact of future land-use change on this species is important. To date, the total Sumatran orangutan population has been estimated at 6600 individuals. On the basis of new transect surveys, we estimate a population of 14,613 in 2015. This higher estimate is due to three factors. First, orangutans were found at higher elevations, elevations previously considered outside of their range and, consequently, not surveyed previously. Second, orangutans were found more widely distributed in logged forests. Third, orangutans were found in areas west of the Toba Lake that were not previously surveyed. This increase in numbers is therefore due to a more wide-ranging survey effort and is not indicative of an increase in the orangutan population in Sumatra. There are evidently more Sumatran orangutans remaining in the wild than we thought, but the species remains under serious threat. Current scenarios for future forest loss predict that as many as 4500 individuals could vanish by 2030. Despite the positive finding that the population is double the size previously estimated, our results indicate that future deforestation will continue to be the cause of rapid declines in orangutan numbers. Hence, we urge that all developmental planning involving forest loss be accompanied by appropriate environmental impact assessments conforming with the current national and provincial legislations, and, through these, implement specific measures to reduce or, better, avoid negative impacts on forests where orangutans occur. PMID:26973868

  2. Depressed Mood Mediates Decline in Cognitive Processing Speed in Caregivers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vitaliano, Peter P.; Zhang, Jianping; Young, Heather M.; Caswell, Lisa W.; Scanlan, James M.; Echeverria, Diana

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: Very few studies have examined cognitive decline in caregivers versus noncaregivers, and only 1 study has examined mediators of such decline. We evaluated the relationship between caregiver status and decline on the digit symbol test (DST; a measure of processing speed, attention, cognitive-motor translation, and visual scanning) and…

  3. Declining Enrollment: Current Trends in School Policies & Programs.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National School Public Relations Association, Arlington, VA.

    Declines in student population are a fact of life in most of the nation's school districts. With the declines come unprecedented challenges and opportunities; sensitive community relations problems involved with school closings; costs that continue to rise despite the decline in student numbers; the need for staff reductions; the need for…

  4. Effects of Declining Enrollments: A New Mexico Study.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Davis, Beatrice L.

    Because 66 of New Mexico's 89 public school districts experienced declines in 1981-82 enrollments and most were unable to decrease educational costs at the same rate as their decline in enrollment, the legislature requested a study on effects of declining enrollment and possible adjustments to the school distribution funding formula to cushion…

  5. From sink to source: Regional variation in U.S. forest carbon futures

    PubMed Central

    Wear, David N.; Coulston, John W.

    2015-01-01

    The sequestration of atmospheric carbon (C) in forests has partially offset C emissions in the United States (US) and might reduce overall costs of achieving emission targets, especially while transportation and energy sectors are transitioning to lower-carbon technologies. Using detailed forest inventory data for the conterminous US, we estimate forests’ current net sequestration of atmospheric C to be 173 Tg yr−1, offsetting 9.7% of C emissions from transportation and energy sources. Accounting for multiple driving variables, we project a gradual decline in the forest C emission sink over the next 25 years (to 112 Tg yr−1) with regional differences. Sequestration in eastern regions declines gradually while sequestration in the Rocky Mountain region declines rapidly and could become a source of atmospheric C due to disturbances such as fire and insect epidemics. C sequestration in the Pacific Coast region stabilizes as forests harvested in previous decades regrow. Scenarios simulating climate-induced productivity enhancement and afforestation policies increase sequestration rates, but would not fully offset declines from aging and forest disturbances. Separating C transfers associated with land use changes from sequestration clarifies forests’ role in reducing net emissions and demonstrates that retention of forest land is crucial for protecting or enhancing sink strength. PMID:26558439

  6. Dissociation of force decline from calcium decline by preload in isolated rabbit myocardium.

    PubMed

    Monasky, Michelle M; Varian, Kenneth D; Davis, Jonathan P; Janssen, Paul M L

    2008-05-01

    It is well known that the rate of intracellular calcium ([Ca2+]i) decline is an important factor governing relaxation in unloaded myocardium. However, it remains unclear to what extent, under near physiological conditions, the intracellular calcium transient amplitude and kinetics contribute to the length-dependent increase in force and increase in duration of relaxation. We hypothesize that myofilament properties rather than calcium transient decline primarily determines the duration of relaxation in adult mammalian myocardium. To test this hypothesis, we simultaneously measured force of contraction and calibrated [Ca2+]i transients in isolated, thin rabbit trabeculae at various lengths at 37 degrees C. Time from peak tension to 50% relaxation (RT50(tension)) increases significantly with length (from 49.8+/-3.4 to 83.8+/-7.4 ms at an [Ca2+]o of 2.5 mM), whereas time from peak calcium to 50% decline (RT50(calcium)) was not prolonged (from 124.8+/-5.3 to 107.7+/-11.4 ms at an [Ca2+]o of 2.5 mM). Analysis of variance revealed that RT50(tension) is significantly correlated with length (P<0.0001). At optimal length, varying the extracellular calcium concentration increased both developed force and calcium transient amplitude, but RT50(tension) remained unchanged (P=0.90), whereas intracellular calcium decline actually accelerated (P<0.05). Thus, an increase in muscle length will result in an increase in both force and duration of relaxation, whereas the latter is not primarily governed by the rate of [Ca2+]i decline. PMID:18057959

  7. Occult chemical deposition to a Maritime forest

    SciTech Connect

    Vong, R.J.; Kowalski, A.S.

    1996-12-31

    Studies of chemical fluxes from the atmosphere to vegetated surfaces have suggested that, along with conventional wet and dry processes, an additional chemical input occurs when wind-blown cloud droplets are directly intercepted by vegetation. This cloud water deposition process has been sometimes termed {open_quote}occult deposition{close_quote} because the water fluxes cannot ordinarily be observed using rain gauges. Such occult deposition of cloud water has rarely been measured directly, in part because of the complexity of the governing turbulent transfer process. However, reviews by the National Acidic Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP SoS/T-2,6) have suggested that the chemical flux to be forest decline in the eastern USA. This paper presents direct field measurements occult chemical fluxes to a silver fir forest located in complex terrain on the Olympic Peninsula near the coast of Washington State, USA.

  8. Forest Management Intensity Affects Aquatic Communities in Artificial Tree Holes

    PubMed Central

    Petermann, Jana S.; Rohland, Anja; Sichardt, Nora; Lade, Peggy; Guidetti, Brenda; Weisser, Wolfgang W.; Gossner, Martin M.

    2016-01-01

    Forest management could potentially affect organisms in all forest habitats. However, aquatic communities in water-filled tree-holes may be especially sensitive because of small population sizes, the risk of drought and potential dispersal limitation. We set up artificial tree holes in forest stands subject to different management intensities in two regions in Germany and assessed the influence of local environmental properties (tree-hole opening type, tree diameter, water volume and water temperature) as well as regional drivers (forest management intensity, tree-hole density) on tree-hole insect communities (not considering other organisms such as nematodes or rotifers), detritus content, oxygen and nutrient concentrations. In addition, we compared data from artificial tree holes with data from natural tree holes in the same area to evaluate the methodological approach of using tree-hole analogues. We found that forest management had strong effects on communities in artificial tree holes in both regions and across the season. Abundance and species richness declined, community composition shifted and detritus content declined with increasing forest management intensity. Environmental variables, such as tree-hole density and tree diameter partly explained these changes. However, dispersal limitation, indicated by effects of tree-hole density, generally showed rather weak impacts on communities. Artificial tree holes had higher water temperatures (on average 2°C higher) and oxygen concentrations (on average 25% higher) than natural tree holes. The abundance of organisms was higher but species richness was lower in artificial tree holes. Community composition differed between artificial and natural tree holes. Negative management effects were detectable in both tree-hole systems, despite their abiotic and biotic differences. Our results indicate that forest management has substantial and pervasive effects on tree-hole communities and may alter their structure and

  9. Forest Management Intensity Affects Aquatic Communities in Artificial Tree Holes.

    PubMed

    Petermann, Jana S; Rohland, Anja; Sichardt, Nora; Lade, Peggy; Guidetti, Brenda; Weisser, Wolfgang W; Gossner, Martin M

    2016-01-01

    Forest management could potentially affect organisms in all forest habitats. However, aquatic communities in water-filled tree-holes may be especially sensitive because of small population sizes, the risk of drought and potential dispersal limitation. We set up artificial tree holes in forest stands subject to different management intensities in two regions in Germany and assessed the influence of local environmental properties (tree-hole opening type, tree diameter, water volume and water temperature) as well as regional drivers (forest management intensity, tree-hole density) on tree-hole insect communities (not considering other organisms such as nematodes or rotifers), detritus content, oxygen and nutrient concentrations. In addition, we compared data from artificial tree holes with data from natural tree holes in the same area to evaluate the methodological approach of using tree-hole analogues. We found that forest management had strong effects on communities in artificial tree holes in both regions and across the season. Abundance and species richness declined, community composition shifted and detritus content declined with increasing forest management intensity. Environmental variables, such as tree-hole density and tree diameter partly explained these changes. However, dispersal limitation, indicated by effects of tree-hole density, generally showed rather weak impacts on communities. Artificial tree holes had higher water temperatures (on average 2°C higher) and oxygen concentrations (on average 25% higher) than natural tree holes. The abundance of organisms was higher but species richness was lower in artificial tree holes. Community composition differed between artificial and natural tree holes. Negative management effects were detectable in both tree-hole systems, despite their abiotic and biotic differences. Our results indicate that forest management has substantial and pervasive effects on tree-hole communities and may alter their structure and

  10. Habitat Effects on the Breeding Performance of Three Forest-Dwelling Hawks.

    PubMed

    Björklund, Heidi; Valkama, Jari; Tomppo, Erkki; Laaksonen, Toni

    2015-01-01

    Habitat loss causes population declines, but the mechanisms are rarely known. In the European Boreal Zone, loss of old forest due to intensive forestry is suspected to cause declines in forest-dwelling raptors by reducing their breeding performance. We studied the boreal breeding habitat and habitat-associated breeding performance of the northern goshawk (Accipiter gentilis), common buzzard (Buteo buteo) and European honey buzzard (Pernis apivorus). We combined long-term Finnish bird-of-prey data with multi-source national forest inventory data at various distances (100-4000 m) around the hawk nests. We found that breeding success of the goshawk was best explained by the habitat within a 2000-m radius around the nests; breeding was more successful with increasing proportions of old spruce forest and water, and decreasing proportions of young thinning forest. None of the habitat variables affected significantly the breeding success of the common buzzard or the honey buzzard, or the brood size of any of the species. The amount of old spruce forest decreased both around goshawk and common buzzard nests and throughout southern Finland in 1992-2010. In contrast, the area of young forest increased in southern Finland but not around hawk nests. We emphasize the importance of studying habitats at several spatial and temporal scales to determine the relevant species-specific scale and to detect environmental changes. Further effort is needed to reconcile the socioeconomic and ecological functions of forests and habitat requirements of old forest specialists. PMID:26422684

  11. Habitat Effects on the Breeding Performance of Three Forest-Dwelling Hawks

    PubMed Central

    Björklund, Heidi; Valkama, Jari; Tomppo, Erkki; Laaksonen, Toni

    2015-01-01

    Habitat loss causes population declines, but the mechanisms are rarely known. In the European Boreal Zone, loss of old forest due to intensive forestry is suspected to cause declines in forest-dwelling raptors by reducing their breeding performance. We studied the boreal breeding habitat and habitat-associated breeding performance of the northern goshawk (Accipiter gentilis), common buzzard (Buteo buteo) and European honey buzzard (Pernis apivorus). We combined long-term Finnish bird-of-prey data with multi-source national forest inventory data at various distances (100–4000 m) around the hawk nests. We found that breeding success of the goshawk was best explained by the habitat within a 2000-m radius around the nests; breeding was more successful with increasing proportions of old spruce forest and water, and decreasing proportions of young thinning forest. None of the habitat variables affected significantly the breeding success of the common buzzard or the honey buzzard, or the brood size of any of the species. The amount of old spruce forest decreased both around goshawk and common buzzard nests and throughout southern Finland in 1992–2010. In contrast, the area of young forest increased in southern Finland but not around hawk nests. We emphasize the importance of studying habitats at several spatial and temporal scales to determine the relevant species-specific scale and to detect environmental changes. Further effort is needed to reconcile the socioeconomic and ecological functions of forests and habitat requirements of old forest specialists. PMID:26422684

  12. Impact of Forest Management on Future Forest Carbon Storage in Alaska Coastal Forests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, X.; Kushch, S. A.

    2014-12-01

    The forest in Coastal Alaska are unique in many ways. Two groups of forest types occur in the Alaska region: boreal and temperate rain forests. About eighty-eight percent of these forests are in public ownership. High proportations of reserved forests and old-growth forests make the forests in coastal Alaska differ from that in other coastal regions. This study is focused on how forest management actions may impact the future carbon stocks and flux in coastal Alaska forests. The Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data collected by US Forest Service are the primary data used for estimation of current carbon storage and projections of future forest carbon storage for all forest carbon pools in Alaska coastal forests under different management scenarios and climate change effect.

  13. Forest bird demography in a landscape mosaic

    SciTech Connect

    Urban, D.L.

    1986-12-01

    A tandem approach of field studies and simulation modeling was used to examine avian demography in a landscape mosaic of habitat patches. A particular goal was to attempt to account for the regional decline in abundance of a subset of bird species sensitive to forest fragmentation. Species abundance patterns in forest patches were framed as the consequence of individual birds' demographics, constrained by their landscape context; this context was partitioned to emphasize habitat availability (or area), accessibility (or isolation), and localized factors affecting reproductive success (nest predation and brood parasitism). Each of these constraints was examined in turn, to assess their relative contribution to species abundance patterns observed in landscape mosaics. A forest simulation model was used to develop a theoretical basis for the importance of microhabitat pattern in forest bird communities. Hypotheses about microhabitat variety and bird species distribution in landscapes were not supported by data from woodlots in Cadiz Township, southern Wisconsin. The hierarchical conceptual model developed in this study represents a synthetic general model, a framework that can be simplified under specified scenarios to provide predictions about bird species abundance patterns in landscape mosaics.

  14. Forest bird demography in a landscape mosaic

    SciTech Connect

    Urban, D.L.; Shugart, H.H. Jr.; DeAngelis, D.L.; O'Neill, R.V.

    1988-07-01

    A tandem approach of field studies and simulation modeling was used to examine avian demography in a landscape mosaic of habitat patches. A particular goal was to attempt to account for the regional decline in abundance of a subset of bird species sensitive to forest fragmentation. Species abundance patterns in forest patches were framed as the consequence of individual birds' demographics, constrained by their landscape context; this context was partitioned to emphasize habitat availability (or area), accessibility (or isolation), and localized factors affecting reproductive success (nest predation and brood parasitism). Each of these constraints was examined in turn, to assess their relative contribution to species abundance patterns observed in landscape mosaics. A forest simulation model was used to develop a theoretical basis for the importance of microhabitat pattern in forest bird communities. Simulated patterns in microhabitat availability could provide for successional trends in bird species diversity, a relation between niche position and species abundance, the occurrence of more rare species than common ones, and a species/area effect. Hypotheses about microhabitat variety and bird species distribution in landscapes were not supported by data from woodlots in Cadiz Township, southern Wisconsin. 39 refs., 41 figs., 10 tabs.

  15. Predicting Impacts of Climate Change on the Aboveground Carbon Sequestration Rate of a Temperate Forest in Northeastern China

    PubMed Central

    Ma, Jun; Hu, Yuanman; Bu, Rencang; Chang, Yu; Deng, Huawei; Qin, Qin

    2014-01-01

    The aboveground carbon sequestration rate (ACSR) reflects the influence of climate change on forest dynamics. To reveal the long-term effects of climate change on forest succession and carbon sequestration, a forest landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS Pro7.0) was used to simulate the ACSR of a temperate forest at the community and species levels in northeastern China based on both current and predicted climatic data. On the community level, the ACSR of mixed Korean pine hardwood forests and mixed larch hardwood forests, fluctuated during the entire simulation, while a large decline of ACSR emerged in interim of simulation in spruce-fir forest and aspen-white birch forests, respectively. On the species level, the ACSR of all conifers declined greatly around 2070s except for Korean pine. The ACSR of dominant hardwoods in the Lesser Khingan Mountains area, such as Manchurian ash, Amur cork, black elm, and ribbed birch fluctuated with broad ranges, respectively. Pioneer species experienced a sharp decline around 2080s, and they would finally disappear in the simulation. The differences of the ACSR among various climates were mainly identified in mixed Korean pine hardwood forests, in all conifers, and in a few hardwoods in the last quarter of simulation. These results indicate that climate warming can influence the ACSR in the Lesser Khingan Mountains area, and the largest impact commonly emerged in the A2 scenario. The ACSR of coniferous species experienced higher impact by climate change than that of deciduous species. PMID:24763409

  16. The birth rate decline in developing countries.

    PubMed

    Robey, B

    1993-01-01

    Family planning programs historically have played an important role in providing information and counseling and supplying modern methods. Most programs are effective due to socioeconomic development and strong political support. Potential demand for services will be growing. This means that donor agencies must commit additional funding, and users must begin paying or paying more for contraceptives. Services and method choices need to be expanded, and quality of care needs to be improved. Three primary factors will impact on fertility decline: 1) the rate of social development, 2) the speed with which small family norms spread and contraception is adopted, and 3) the facility of private and public suppliers to meet contraceptive demand. Other factors influence reproductive decisions (women's roles and status, economic hardships or opportunities, religion, ethnicity, culture, and tradition). Contraceptive prevalence has increased from under 10% in the 1960s to 38% of all married, reproductive age women in the developing world, excluding China, which has contraceptive prevalence of 72%. Regional differences are wide. In Latin America, contraceptive use averages nearly 60% and ranges from over 50% in 10 countries and below 38% in Bolivia, Guatemala, and Haiti. Contraceptive prevalence is above average in Indonesia (50%), Sri Lanka (62%), and Thailand (68%) and just below average in Bangladesh (40%), India (45%), Philippines (34%), and Vietnam (53%). Sub-Saharan Africa has the lowest prevalence, except for Zimbabwe (45%), Botswana (35%), and Kenya (27%). 80% of current users rely on modern methods. In most surveyed countries, 20-30% of married women have unmet demand. Fertility decline, unmet demand, and contraceptive use have all been affected by the diffusion of ideas about the use of family planning and the small family norm. Innovators are usually high status, educated women, who spread their views to other social groups or geographic areas. The spread can be rapid

  17. Forest Gaps Alter the Total Phenol Dynamics in Decomposing Litter in an Alpine Fir Forest

    PubMed Central

    Li, Han; Xu, Liya; Wu, Fuzhong; Yang, Wanqin; Ni, Xiangyin; He, Jie; Tan, Bo; Hu, Yi

    2016-01-01

    The total phenol content in decomposing litter not only acts as a crucial litter quality indicator, but is also closely related to litter humification due to its tight absorption to clay particles. However, limited attention has been focused on the total phenol dynamics in foliar litter in relation to forest gaps. Here, the foliar litter of six representative tree species was incubated on the forest floor from the gap center to the closed canopy of an alpine Minjiang fir (Abies faxoniana) forest in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and eastern Tibetan Plateau. The dynamics of total phenol concentration in the incubated litter was measured from November 2012 to October 2014. Over two-year incubation, 78.22% to 94.06% of total phenols were lost from the foliar litter, but 52.08% to 86.41% of this occurred in the first year. Forest gaps accelerated the loss of total phenols in the foliar litter in the winter, although they inhibited the loss of total phenols during the growing season in the first year. In comparison with the effects of forest gaps, the variations of litter quality among different species were much stronger on the dynamics of total phenols in the second year. Overall, the loss of total phenols in the foliar litter was slightly higher in both the canopy gap and the expanded gap than in the gap center and under the closed canopy. The results suggest that the predicted decline in snow cover resulting from winter warming or vanishing gaps caused by forest regeneration will retard the loss of total phenol content in the foliar litter of alpine forest ecosystems, especially in the first decomposition year. PMID:26849120

  18. Forest Gaps Alter the Total Phenol Dynamics in Decomposing Litter in an Alpine Fir Forest.

    PubMed

    Li, Han; Xu, Liya; Wu, Fuzhong; Yang, Wanqin; Ni, Xiangyin; He, Jie; Tan, Bo; Hu, Yi

    2016-01-01

    The total phenol content in decomposing litter not only acts as a crucial litter quality indicator, but is also closely related to litter humification due to its tight absorption to clay particles. However, limited attention has been focused on the total phenol dynamics in foliar litter in relation to forest gaps. Here, the foliar litter of six representative tree species was incubated on the forest floor from the gap center to the closed canopy of an alpine Minjiang fir (Abies faxoniana) forest in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and eastern Tibetan Plateau. The dynamics of total phenol concentration in the incubated litter was measured from November 2012 to October 2014. Over two-year incubation, 78.22% to 94.06% of total phenols were lost from the foliar litter, but 52.08% to 86.41% of this occurred in the first year. Forest gaps accelerated the loss of total phenols in the foliar litter in the winter, although they inhibited the loss of total phenols during the growing season in the first year. In comparison with the effects of forest gaps, the variations of litter quality among different species were much stronger on the dynamics of total phenols in the second year. Overall, the loss of total phenols in the foliar litter was slightly higher in both the canopy gap and the expanded gap than in the gap center and under the closed canopy. The results suggest that the predicted decline in snow cover resulting from winter warming or vanishing gaps caused by forest regeneration will retard the loss of total phenol content in the foliar litter of alpine forest ecosystems, especially in the first decomposition year. PMID:26849120

  19. Effects of Projected Transient Changes in Climate on Tennessee Forests

    SciTech Connect

    Dale, Virginia H; Tharp, M Lynn; Lannom, Karen O.; Hodges, Donald G.

    2010-01-01

    This study examines transient effects of projected climate change on the structure and species composition of forests in Tennessee. The climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2080 were provided by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) from three General Circulation Models (GCMs) that simulate the range of potential climate conditions for the state. The precipitation and temperature projections from the three GCMs for 2030 and 2080 were related to changes in the ecoregions by using the monthly record of temperature and precipitation from 1980 to 1997 for each 1 km cell across the state as aggregated into the five ecological provinces. Temperatures are projected to increase in all ecological provinces in all months for all three GCMs for both 2030 and 2080. Precipitation patterns are more complex with one model projecting wetter summers and two models projecting drier summers. The forest ecosystem model LINKAGES was used to simulate conditions in forest stands for the five ecological provinces of Tennessee from 1989 to 2300. These model runs suggest there will be a change in tree diversity and species composition in all ecological provinces with the greatest changes occurring in the Southern Mixed Forest province. Most projections show a decline in total tree biomass followed by recovery as species replacement occurs in stands. The changes in forest biomass and composition, as simulated in this study, are likely to have implications on forest economy, tourism, understory conditions, wildlife habitat, mast provisioning, and other services provided by forest systems.

  20. Optical fiber sensor systems for forest protection in Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Domanski, Andrzej W.; Wolinski, Tomasz R.; Dybko, Artur; Sosin, Tomasz P.; Bock, Wojtek J.

    1993-03-01

    Forest damages in Canada have been observed to occur since the mid-1970's. Current hypotheses that attempt to explain forest declines implicate the effects of acid deposition, excess sulfur and nitrogen deposition, and elevated concentration of ozone and carbon dioxide on forest soils and nutrition as major contributors. Forest protection requires information about the pH of precipitation and aquatic ground water/soil systems along with the characterization of chemical toxicants distribution in the forest environment. Present analytical techniques for toxic chemical compounds are not well suited for field measurements. Current methods require collection of samples in the field and subsequent analysis in the laboratory. The paper discusses the possibility of applying fiber optic sensing networks for constant monitoring of pH and input/output balance of forest ecosystems to overcome most of the limitations of current methods for characterizing the distribution of chemical toxicants in the forest environment. The idea of such networks is based on sensors which couple fluorescence measurement with optical fibers offering not only a good precision and reliability but direct compatibility with fiber optic telemetry, optical data transmission systems, and optical multiplexing technology.

  1. Persistent effects of a severe drought on Amazonian forest canopy.

    PubMed

    Saatchi, Sassan; Asefi-Najafabady, Salvi; Malhi, Yadvinder; Aragão, Luiz E O C; Anderson, Liana O; Myneni, Ranga B; Nemani, Ramakrishna

    2013-01-01

    Recent Amazonian droughts have drawn attention to the vulnerability of tropical forests to climate perturbations. Satellite and in situ observations have shown an increase in fire occurrence during drought years and tree mortality following severe droughts, but to date there has been no assessment of long-term impacts of these droughts across landscapes in Amazonia. Here, we use satellite microwave observations of rainfall and canopy backscatter to show that more than 70 million hectares of forest in western Amazonia experienced a strong water deficit during the dry season of 2005 and a closely corresponding decline in canopy structure and moisture. Remarkably, and despite the gradual recovery in total rainfall in subsequent years, the decrease in canopy backscatter persisted until the next major drought, in 2010. The decline in backscatter is attributed to changes in structure and water content associated with the forest upper canopy. The persistence of low backscatter supports the slow recovery (>4 y) of forest canopy structure after the severe drought in 2005. The result suggests that the occurrence of droughts in Amazonia at 5-10 y frequency may lead to persistent alteration of the forest canopy. PMID:23267086

  2. Persistent effects of a severe drought on Amazonian forest canopy

    PubMed Central

    Saatchi, Sassan; Asefi-Najafabady, Salvi; Malhi, Yadvinder; Aragão, Luiz E. O. C.; Anderson, Liana O.; Myneni, Ranga B.; Nemani, Ramakrishna

    2013-01-01

    Recent Amazonian droughts have drawn attention to the vulnerability of tropical forests to climate perturbations. Satellite and in situ observations have shown an increase in fire occurrence during drought years and tree mortality following severe droughts, but to date there has been no assessment of long-term impacts of these droughts across landscapes in Amazonia. Here, we use satellite microwave observations of rainfall and canopy backscatter to show that more than 70 million hectares of forest in western Amazonia experienced a strong water deficit during the dry season of 2005 and a closely corresponding decline in canopy structure and moisture. Remarkably, and despite the gradual recovery in total rainfall in subsequent years, the decrease in canopy backscatter persisted until the next major drought, in 2010. The decline in backscatter is attributed to changes in structure and water content associated with the forest upper canopy. The persistence of low backscatter supports the slow recovery (>4 y) of forest canopy structure after the severe drought in 2005. The result suggests that the occurrence of droughts in Amazonia at 5–10 y frequency may lead to persistent alteration of the forest canopy. PMID:23267086

  3. Electrical Stimulation Counteracts Muscle Decline in Seniors

    PubMed Central

    Kern, Helmut; Barberi, Laura; Löfler, Stefan; Sbardella, Simona; Burggraf, Samantha; Fruhmann, Hannah; Carraro, Ugo; Mosole, Simone; Sarabon, Nejc; Vogelauer, Michael; Mayr, Winfried; Krenn, Matthias; Cvecka, Jan; Romanello, Vanina; Pietrangelo, Laura; Protasi, Feliciano; Sandri, Marco; Zampieri, Sandra; Musaro, Antonio

    2014-01-01

    The loss in muscle mass coupled with a decrease in specific force and shift in fiber composition are hallmarks of aging. Training and regular exercise attenuate the signs of sarcopenia. However, pathologic conditions limit the ability to perform physical exercise. We addressed whether electrical stimulation (ES) is an alternative intervention to improve muscle recovery and defined the molecular mechanism associated with improvement in muscle structure and function. We analyzed, at functional, structural, and molecular level, the effects of ES training on healthy seniors with normal life style, without routine sport activity. ES was able to improve muscle torque and functional performances of seniors and increased the size of fast muscle fibers. At molecular level, ES induced up-regulation of IGF-1 and modulation of MuRF-1, a muscle-specific atrophy-related gene. ES also induced up-regulation of relevant markers of differentiating satellite cells and of extracellular matrix remodeling, which might guarantee shape and mechanical forces of trained skeletal muscle as well as maintenance of satellite cell function, reducing fibrosis. Our data provide evidence that ES is a safe method to counteract muscle decline associated with aging. PMID:25104935

  4. Declining ecosystem health and the dilution effect.

    PubMed

    Khalil, Hussein; Ecke, Frauke; Evander, Magnus; Magnusson, Magnus; Hörnfeldt, Birger

    2016-01-01

    The "dilution effect" implies that where species vary in susceptibility to infection by a pathogen, higher diversity often leads to lower infection prevalence in hosts. For directly transmitted pathogens, non-host species may "dilute" infection directly (1) and indirectly (2). Competitors and predators may (1) alter host behavior to reduce pathogen transmission or (2) reduce host density. In a well-studied system, we tested the dilution of the zoonotic Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) in bank voles (Myodes glareolus) by two competitors and a predator. Our study was based on long-term PUUV infection data (2003-2013) in northern Sweden. The field vole (Microtus agrestis) and the common shrew (Sorex araneus) are bank vole competitors and Tengmalm's owl (Aegolius funereus) is a main predator of bank voles. Infection probability in bank voles decreased when common shrew density increased, suggesting that common shrews reduced PUUV transmission. Field voles suppressed bank vole density in meadows and clear-cuts and indirectly diluted PUUV infection. Further, Tengmalm's owl decline in 1980-2013 may have contributed to higher PUUV infection rates in bank voles in 2003-2013 compared to 1979-1986. Our study provides further evidence for dilution effect and suggests that owls may have an important role in reducing disease risk. PMID:27499001

  5. Development and Decline of Upright Gait Stability

    PubMed Central

    Iosa, Marco; Fusco, Augusto; Morone, Giovanni; Paolucci, Stefano

    2014-01-01

    Upright gait is a peculiar characteristic of humans that requires the ability to manage upper body dynamic balance while walking, despite the perturbations that are generated by movements of the lower limbs. Most of the studies on upright gait stability have compared young adults and the elderly to determine the effects of aging. In other studies, the comparison was between healthy subjects and patients to examine specific pathologies. Fewer researches have also investigated the development of upright gait stability in children. This review discusses these studies in order to provide an overview of this relevant aspect of human locomotion. A clear trend from development to decline of upright gait stability has been depicted across the entire lifespan, from toddlers at first steps to elderly. In old individuals, even if healthy, the deterioration of skeletal muscle, combined with sensorial and cognitive performance, reduces the ability to maintain an upright trunk during walking, increasing the instability and the risk of falls. Further, the pathological causes of altered development or of a sudden loss of gait stability, as well as the environmental influence are investigated. The last part of this review is focused on the control of upper body accelerations during walking, a particularly interesting topic for the recent development of low-cost wearable accelerometers. PMID:24550829

  6. Declining ecosystem health and the dilution effect

    PubMed Central

    Khalil, Hussein; Ecke, Frauke; Evander, Magnus; Magnusson, Magnus; Hörnfeldt, Birger

    2016-01-01

    The “dilution effect” implies that where species vary in susceptibility to infection by a pathogen, higher diversity often leads to lower infection prevalence in hosts. For directly transmitted pathogens, non-host species may “dilute” infection directly (1) and indirectly (2). Competitors and predators may (1) alter host behavior to reduce pathogen transmission or (2) reduce host density. In a well-studied system, we tested the dilution of the zoonotic Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) in bank voles (Myodes glareolus) by two competitors and a predator. Our study was based on long-term PUUV infection data (2003–2013) in northern Sweden. The field vole (Microtus agrestis) and the common shrew (Sorex araneus) are bank vole competitors and Tengmalm’s owl (Aegolius funereus) is a main predator of bank voles. Infection probability in bank voles decreased when common shrew density increased, suggesting that common shrews reduced PUUV transmission. Field voles suppressed bank vole density in meadows and clear-cuts and indirectly diluted PUUV infection. Further, Tengmalm’s owl decline in 1980–2013 may have contributed to higher PUUV infection rates in bank voles in 2003–2013 compared to 1979–1986. Our study provides further evidence for dilution effect and suggests that owls may have an important role in reducing disease risk. PMID:27499001

  7. Forest management and economics

    SciTech Connect

    Buongiorno, J.; Gilless, J.K.

    1987-01-01

    This volume provides a survey of quantitative methods, guiding the reader through formulation and analysis of models that address forest management problems. The authors use simple mathematics, graphics, and short computer programs to explain each method. Emphasizing applications, they discuss linear, integer, dynamic, and goal programming; simulation; network modeling; and econometrics, as these relate to problems of determining economic harvest schedules in even-aged and uneven-aged forests, the evaluation of forest policies, multiple-objective decision making, and more.

  8. 3. View northeast, west facade of Lake Forest (original Forest ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    3. View northeast, west facade of Lake Forest (original Forest Cottage structure incorporated into renamed structure) - Lake Placid Club, Forest Wing, East side of Mirror Lake Drive, North of State Route 86 & Main, North Elba, Essex County, NY

  9. 4. View southeast, west facade of Lake Forest (original Forest ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    4. View southeast, west facade of Lake Forest (original Forest Cottage structure incorporated into renamed structure) - Lake Placid Club, Forest Wing, East side of Mirror Lake Drive, North of State Route 86 & Main, North Elba, Essex County, NY

  10. 7. View southwest, east facade of Lake Forest (original Forest ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    7. View southwest, east facade of Lake Forest (original Forest Cottage structure incorporated into renamed structure) - Lake Placid Club, Forest Wing, East side of Mirror Lake Drive, North of State Route 86 & Main, North Elba, Essex County, NY

  11. Declines in the Lethality of Suicide Attempts Explain the Decline in Suicide Deaths in Australia

    PubMed Central

    Spittal, Matthew J.; Pirkis, Jane; Miller, Matthew; Studdert, David M.

    2012-01-01

    Background To investigate the epidemiology of a steep decrease in the incidence of suicide deaths in Australia. Methods National data on suicide deaths and deliberate self-harm for the period 1994–2007 were obtained from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. We calculated attempt and death rates for five major methods and the lethality of these methods. Negative binomial regression was used to estimate the size and significance of method-specific time-trends in attempts and lethality. Results Hanging, motor vehicle exhaust and firearms were the most lethal methods, and together accounted for 72% of all deaths. The lethality of motor vehicle exhaust attempts decreased sharply (RR = 0.94 per year, 95% CI 0.93–0.95) while the motor vehicle exhaust attempt rate changed little; this combination of motor vehicle exhaust trends explained nearly half of the overall decline in suicide deaths. Hanging lethality also decreased sharply (RR = 0.96 per year, 95% CI 0.956–0.965) but large increases in hanging attempts negated the effect on death rates. Firearm lethality changed little while attempts decreased. Conclusion Declines in the lethality of suicide attempts–especially attempts by motor vehicle exhaust and hanging–explain the remarkable decline in deaths by suicide in Australia since 1997. PMID:22957084

  12. Forest Fires in a Random Forest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leuenberger, Michael; Kanevski, Mikhaïl; Vega Orozco, Carmen D.

    2013-04-01

    Forest fires in Canton Ticino (Switzerland) are very complex phenomena. Meteorological data can explain some occurrences of fires in time, but not necessarily in space. Using anthropogenic and geographical feature data with the random forest algorithm, this study tries to highlight factors that most influence the fire-ignition and to identify areas under risk. The fundamental scientific problem considered in the present research deals with an application of random forest algorithms for the analysis and modeling of forest fires patterns in a high dimensional input feature space. This study is focused on the 2,224 anthropogenic forest fires among the 2,401 forest fire ignition points that have occurred in Canton Ticino from 1969 to 2008. Provided by the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), the database characterizes each fire by their location (x,y coordinates of the ignition point), start date, duration, burned area, and other information such as ignition cause and topographic features such as slope, aspect, altitude, etc. In addition, the database VECTOR25 from SwissTopo was used to extract information of the distances between fire ignition points and anthropogenic structures like buildings, road network, rail network, etc. Developed by L. Breiman and A. Cutler, the Random Forests (RF) algorithm provides an ensemble of classification and regression trees. By a pseudo-random variable selection for each split node, this method grows a variety of decision trees that do not return the same results, and thus by a committee system, returns a value that has a better accuracy than other machine learning methods. This algorithm incorporates directly measurement of importance variable which is used to display factors affecting forest fires. Dealing with this parameter, several models can be fit, and thus, a prediction can be made throughout the validity domain of Canton Ticino. Comprehensive RF analysis was carried out in order to 1

  13. Area and edge effects on leaf-litter decomposition in a fragmented subtropical dry forest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moreno, M. L.; Bernaschini, M. L.; Pérez-Harguindeguy, N.; Valladares, G.

    2014-10-01

    South American subtropical dry forests are highly threatened by fragmentation. Despite considerable research efforts aimed at predicting ecosystem alterations due to this driver of global change, we still need to deal with general principles to improve our ability to predict the impact of fragmentation. Our work is one of the few studies that analyse the relationship between forest fragmentation and decomposition. In 12 remnants of Chaco Serrano forest in Central Argentina we tested if decomposition rates of a common leaf-litter substrate varied with fragment size and between the forest edge and interior. Decomposition declined with fragment size, with no significant effects of location (edge/interior) or interaction between the two components of fragmentation. Our results suggest that in situ conditions for decomposition may change as a consequence of forest fragmentation, specifically as a result fragment size. This may lead to impaired nutrient recycling in smaller forest remnants.

  14. Revised paradigms of forest production over stand development: Why does carbon storage increase as trees die in aging mixed temperate forests?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gough, C. M.; Curtis, P.; Hardiman, B. S.; Scheuermann, C. M.

    2013-12-01

    The broad emergence of century-old forests in the US upper Midwest and Northeast has large potential implications for carbon (C) storage, as the long-assumed future decline of production in aging stands is expected to reduce continental C sink strength. As mixed temperate forests in the region broadly transition from early to middle stages of succession, short-lived canopy trees are dying and giving way to more structurally complex forests. At the same time, disturbances in the region are shifting from severe events to more moderate disturbances resulting in only partial canopy defoliation. We review new evidence that temperate deciduous forests, against prior expectations, are likely to maintain their capacity to store C over the next several decades even as diffuse mortality of canopy trees increases with advancing age. Forest production data from long-term observational studies and experimental chronosequences in the region do not support a decline in C storage during middle succession. Instead, sustained forest C storage in intermediate-aged forests corresponds with the accrual of structural complexity over time from small-scale, non-stand replacing disturbances such as age-related mortality. Increasing complexity with age gives rise to more efficient use of growth-limiting light and nutrient resources, which may offset, in part or whole, the lost contribution of senescent canopy trees to forest production. These findings indicate that older, structurally complex forests that emerge following diffuse mortality may store C at rates comparable to their younger counterparts. We conclude that regional land-use decisions permitting age-related senescence in maturing forests or, alternatively, management outcomes emulating the structural features of older forests will support goals to maintain the region's C sink strength.

  15. Interactions between climate change impacts on forest productivity and mortality and stream water quality in the US Western Mountains (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tague, C.; Zhu, J.

    2013-12-01

    In the snow-dominated mountains of the Western US, climate change is likely to alter forest productivity, water use and nutrient uptake. The consequence of changes in forest structure and function will have impacts on both water quality and water quantity. Warmer temperatures, reduced snow accumulation and earlier melt, elevated CO2 and increased frequency and severity of drought all influence forest productivity, sometimes in opposing ways. In the complex topography of mountain environments, whether forest productivity increases or decreases is likely to vary along gradients between water and energy limited systems. Implications for forest structure also vary along these gradients, and include the impact of disturbances such as fire and pests. We build on earlier work that used a coupled eco-hydrologic model to show how forest water use changes with increasing temperatures and how these changes are distributed along elevational gradients for a snow-dominated site within the California Sierra. We extend this analysis to investigate associated changes in forest structure and nutrient uptake with temperature warming, along an elevational gradient. We compare results for sites in the California Sierra and the wetter Pacific Northwest. Results show that for wetter sites, forest productivity is likely to increases with associated declines in stream nutrient export. For drier sites, however, forest productivity may decline leading to reduced forest nutrient uptake. This decline in uptake is combined with shifts to more winter rainfall that together may facilitate greater flushing of nutrients. We use these results to define scenarios where we would expect forest productivity to decline and lead to increase nitrate leaching to stream and groundwater.

  16. The lognormal handwriter: learning, performing, and declining

    PubMed Central

    Plamondon, Réjean; O'Reilly, Christian; Rémi, Céline; Duval, Thérésa

    2013-01-01

    The generation of handwriting is a complex neuromotor skill requiring the interaction of many cognitive processes. It aims at producing a message to be imprinted as an ink trace left on a writing medium. The generated trajectory of the pen tip is made up of strokes superimposed over time. The Kinematic Theory of rapid human movements and its family of lognormal models provide analytical representations of these strokes, often considered as the basic unit of handwriting. This paradigm has not only been experimentally confirmed in numerous predictive and physiologically significant tests but it has also been shown to be the ideal mathematical description for the impulse response of a neuromuscular system. This latter demonstration suggests that the lognormality of the velocity patterns can be interpreted as reflecting the behavior of subjects who are in perfect control of their movements. To illustrate this interpretation, we present a short overview of the main concepts behind the Kinematic Theory and briefly describe how its models can be exploited, using various software tools, to investigate these ideal lognormal behaviors. We emphasize that the parameters extracted during various tasks can be used to analyze some underlying processes associated with their realization. To investigate the operational convergence hypothesis, we report on two original studies. First, we focus on the early steps of the motor learning process as seen as a converging behavior toward the production of more precise lognormal patterns as young children practicing handwriting start to become more fluent writers. Second, we illustrate how aging affects handwriting by pointing out the increasing departure from the ideal lognormal behavior as the control of the fine motricity begins to decline. Overall, the paper highlights this developmental process of merging toward a lognormal behavior with learning, mastering this behavior to succeed in performing a given task, and then gradually

  17. Do plasma melatonin concentrations decline with age?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zeitzer, J. M.; Daniels, J. E.; Duffy, J. F.; Klerman, E. B.; Shanahan, T. L.; Dijk, D. J.; Czeisler, C. A.

    1999-01-01

    PURPOSE: Numerous reports that secretion of the putative sleep-promoting hormone melatonin declines with age have led to suggestions that melatonin replacement therapy be used to treat sleep problems in older patients. We sought to reassess whether the endogenous circadian rhythm of plasma melatonin concentration changes with age in healthy drug-free adults. METHODS: We analyzed the amplitude of plasma melatonin profiles during a constant routine in 34 healthy drug-free older subjects (20 women and 14 men, aged 65 to 81 years) and compared them with 98 healthy drug-free young men (aged 18 to 30 years). RESULTS: We could detect no significant difference between a healthy and drug-free group of older men and women as compared to one of young men in the endogenous circadian amplitude of the plasma melatonin rhythm, as described by mean 24-hour average melatonin concentration (70 pmol/liter vs 73 pmol/liter, P = 0.97), or the duration (9.3 hours vs 9.1 hours, P = 0.43), mean (162 pmol/liter vs 161 pmol/liter, P = 0.63), or integrated area (85,800 pmol x min/liter vs 86,700 pmol x min/liter, P = 0.66) of the nocturnal peak of plasma melatonin. CONCLUSION: These results do not support the hypothesis that reduction of plasma melatonin concentration is a general characteristic of healthy aging. Should melatonin replacement therapy or melatonin supplementation prove to be clinically useful, we recommend that an assessment of endogenous melatonin be carried out before such treatment is used in older patients.

  18. Dynamics and pattern of a managed coniferous forest landscape in Oregon

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spies, Thomas A.; Ripple, William J.; Bradshaw, G. A.

    1995-01-01

    We examined the process of fragmentation in a managed forest landscape by comparing rates and patterns of disturbance (primarily clear-cutting) and regrowth between 1972 and 1988 using Landsat imagery. A 2589-km(exp 2) managed forest landscape in western Oregon was classified into two forest types, closed-canopy conifer forest (CF) (typically, greater than 60% conifer cover) and other forest and nonforest types (OT) (typically, less than 40 yr old or deciduous forest). The percentage of CF declined from 71 to 58% between 1972 and 1988. Declines were greatest on private land, least in wilderness, and intermediate in public nonwilderness. High elevations (greater than 914 m) maintained a greater percentage of CF than lower elevations (less than 914 m). The percentage of the area at the edge of the two cover types increased on all ownerships and in both elevational zones, whereas the amount of interior habitat (defined as CF at least 100 m from OT) decreased on all ownerships and elevational zones. By 1988 public lands contained approximately 45% interior habitat while private lands had 12% interior habitat. Mean interior patch area declined from 160 to 62 ha. The annual rate of disturbance (primarily clear-cutting) for the entire area including the wilderness was 1.19%, which corresponds to a cutting rotation of 84 yr. The forest landscape was not in a steady state or regulated condition which is not projected to occur for at least 40 yr under current forest plans. Variability in cutting rates within ownerships was higher on private land than on nonreserve public land. However, despite the use of dispersed cutting patterns on public land, spatial patterns of cutting and remnant forest patches were nonuniform across the entire public ownership. Large remaining patches (less than 5000 ha) of contiguous interior forest were restricted to public lands designated for uses other than timber production such as wilderness areas and research natural areas.

  19. Declining Orangutan Encounter Rates from Wallace to the Present Suggest the Species Was Once More Abundant

    PubMed Central

    Meijaard, Erik; Welsh, Alan; Ancrenaz, Marc; Wich, Serge; Nijman, Vincent; Marshall, Andrew J.

    2010-01-01

    Background Bornean orangutans (Pongo pygmaeus) currently occur at low densities and seeing a wild one is a rare event. Compared to present low encounter rates of orangutans, it is striking how many orangutan each day historic collectors like Alfred Russel Wallace were able to shoot continuously over weeks or even months. Does that indicate that some 150 years ago encounter rates with orangutans, or their densities, were higher than now? Methodology/Principal Findings We test this hypothesis by quantifying encounter rates obtained from hunting accounts, museum collections, and recent field studies, and analysing whether there is a declining trend over time. Logistic regression analyses of our data support such a decline on Borneo between the mid-19th century and the present. Even when controlled for variation in the size of survey and hunting teams and the durations of expeditions, mean daily encounter rates appear to have declined about 6-fold in areas with little or no forest disturbance. Conclusions/Significance This finding has potential consequences for our understanding of orangutans, because it suggests that Bornean orangutans once occurred at higher densities. We explore potential explanations—habitat loss and degradation, hunting, and disease—and conclude that hunting fits the observed patterns best. This suggests that hunting has been underestimated as a key causal factor of orangutan density and distribution, and that species population declines have been more severe than previously estimated based on habitat loss only. Our findings may require us to rethink the biology of orangutans, with much of our ecological understanding possibly being based on field studies of animals living at lower densities than they did historically. Our approach of quantifying species encounter rates from historic data demonstrates that this method can yield valuable information about the ecology and population density of species in the past, providing new insight into

  20. Simulating secondary succession of elk forage values in a managed forest landscape, western Washington

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jenkins, Kurt J.; Starkey, Edward E.

    1996-01-01

    Modern timber management practices often influence forage production for elk (Cervus elaphus) on broad temporal and spatial scales in forested landscapes. We incorporated site-specific information on postharvesting forest succession and forage characteristics in a simulation model to evaluate past and future influences of forest management practices on forage values for elk in a commercially managed Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii, PSME)-western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla, TSHE) forest in western Washington. We evaluated future effects of: (1) clear-cut logging 0, 20, and 40% of harvestable stands every five years; (2) thinning 20-year-old Douglas fir forests; and (3) reducing the harvesting cycle from 60 to 45 years. Reconstruction of historical patterns of vegetation succession indicated that forage values peaked in the 1960s and declined from the 1970s to the present, but recent values still were higher than may have existed in the unmanaged landscape in 1945. Increased forest harvesting rates had little short-term influence on forage trends because harvestable stands were scarce. Simulations of forest thinning also produced negligible benefits because thinning did not improve forage productivity appreciably at the stand level. Simulations of reduced harvesting cycles shortened the duration of declining forage values from approximately 30 to 15 years. We concluded that simulation models are useful tools for examining landscape responses of forage production to forest management strategies, but the options examined provided little potential for improving elk forages in the immediate future.

  1. Range-wide distribution of genetic diversity in the North American tree Juglans cinerea: a product of range shifts, not ecological marginality or recent population decline.

    PubMed

    Hoban, Sean M; Borkowski, Daniel S; Brosi, Sunshine L; McCleary, Tim S; Thompson, Laura M; McLachlan, Jason S; Pereira, Marie A; Schlarbaum, Scott E; Romero-Severson, Jeanne

    2010-11-01

    The spatial distribution of genetic diversity is a product of recent and historical ecological processes, as well as anthropogenic activities. A current challenge in population and conservation genetics is to disentangle the relative effects of these processes, as a first step in predicting population response to future environmental change. In this investigation, we compare the influence of contemporary population decline, contemporary ecological marginality and postglacial range shifts. Using classical model comparison procedures and Bayesian methods, we have identified postglacial range shift as the clear determinant of genetic diversity, differentiation and bottlenecks in 29 populations of butternut, Juglans cinerea L., a North American outcrossing forest tree. Although butternut has experienced dramatic 20th century decline because of an introduced fungal pathogen, our analysis indicates that recent population decline has had less genetic impact than postglacial recolonization history. Location within the range edge vs. the range core also failed to account for the observed patterns of diversity and differentiation. Our results suggest that the genetic impact of large-scale recent population losses in forest trees should be considered in the light of Pleistocene-era large-scale range shifts that may have had long-term genetic consequences. The data also suggest that the population dynamics and life history of wind-pollinated forest trees may provide a buffer against steep population declines of short duration, a result having important implications for habitat management efforts, ex situ conservation sampling and population viability analysis. PMID:21040046

  2. People and Forests.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    NatureScope, 1986

    1986-01-01

    Provides: (1) background information on how forests are managed and some of the problems facing forests around the world; (2) three activities dealing with these topics; and (3) three ready-to-copy pages for student use. Activities include an objective, recommended age level(s), recommended subject area(s), list of materials needed, and…

  3. The National Forests

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clawson, Marion

    1976-01-01

    National forests are a valuable national asset in terms of wood, recreation, wilderness, wildlife, and water. Management is inefficient and uneconomic creating wasteful capital investment and below-potential economic output. Better national leadership, analysis of forests as a business enterprise, and recruitment of outside persons into Forest…

  4. Chisholm Forest Fire

    Atmospheric Science Data Center

    2013-04-17

    ... Larger Image A new look at smoke from the Chisholm forest fire, which ignited on May 23, 2001 about 160 kilometers north of ... in detail by M. Fromm and R. Servranckx, "Transport of forest fire smoke above the tropopause by supercell convection", Geophys. Res. ...

  5. People & Tropical Rain Forests.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    NatureScope, 1989

    1989-01-01

    Discusses ways people who live in rain forests make a living and some of the products that enrich our lives. Provides activities covering forest people, tropical treats, jungle in the pantry, treetop explorers, and three copyable pages to accompany activities. (Author/RT)

  6. Trading forest carbon

    EPA Science Inventory

    The nature of carbon in forests is discussed from the perspective of carbon trading. Carbon inventories, specifically in the area of land use and forestry are reviewed for the Pacific Northwest. Carbon turnover in forests is discussed as it relates to carbon sequestration. Scient...

  7. Early forest soils and their role in Devonian global change

    SciTech Connect

    Retallack, G.J.

    1997-04-25

    A paleosol in the Middle Devonian Aztec Siltstone of Victoria Land, Antarctica, is the most ancient known soil of well-drained forest ecosystems. Clay enrichment and chemical weathering of subsurface horizons in this and other Devonian forested paleosols culminate a long-term increase initiated during the Silurian. From Silurian into Devonian time, red clayey calcareous paleosols show a greater volume of roots and a concomitant decline in the density of animal burrows. These trends parallel the decline in atmospheric carbon dioxide determined from isotopic records of pedogenic carbonate in these same paleosols. The drawdown of carbon dioxide began well before the Devonian appearance of coals, large logs, and diverse terrestrial plants and animals, and it did not correlate with temporal variation in volcanic or metamorphic activity. The early Paleozoic greenhouse may have been curbed by the evolution of rhizospheres with an increased ratio of primary to secondary production and by more effective silicate weathering during Silurian time. 14 refs., 3 figs.

  8. Floodplain forest loss and changes in forest community composition and structure in the upper Mississippi River: a wildlife habitat at risk

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Knutson, M.G.; Klaas, E.E.

    1998-01-01

    Large floodplain forests represent a threatened and endangered type of ecosystem in the United States. Estimates of cumulative losses of floodplain forest range from 57% to 95% at different locations within the continental United Stales. Floodplain forests of the Upper Mississippi River (UMR) have significantly declined in extent due to agriculture, lock and dam construction, and urban development since European settlement. We collected data on shrubs, herbs, and trees from 56 floodplain forest plots in 1992 and compared our results with a previous analysis of historical tree data from the same area recorded by the General Land Office Survey in the 1840s. Acer saccharinum strongly dominates among mature trees and its relative dominance has increased over time. Salix spp. And Betula nigra have declined in relative dominance. Tree sizes are similar to those of presettlement forests, but present forests have fewer trees. The lack of early successional tree species and a trend toward an increasing monoculture of A. Saccharinum in the mature stages indicate problems with regeneration. Because floodplain forests represent a rare habitat type, losses and changes in habitat quality could pose serious problems for wildlife that depend upon these habitats, especially birds.

  9. Evaluating the Association between Diabetes, Cognitive Decline and Dementia

    PubMed Central

    Ojo, Omorogieva; Brooke, Joanne

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this article is to review the association between diabetes mellitus, cognitive decline and dementia, including the effects of cognitive decline and dementia on self management of diabetes. This is a literature review of primary research articles. A number of contemporary research articles that met the inclusion criteria were selected for this review paper. These articles were selected using a number of search strategies and electronic databases, such as EBSCOhost Research and SwetsWise databases. The duration of diabetes, glycated haemoglobin levels and glycaemic fluctuations were associated with cognitive decline and dementia. Similarly, hypoglycaemia was significantly related to increased risk of developing cognitive decline and dementia. Furthermore, cognitive decline and dementia were associated with poorer diabetes management. There is evidence of the association between diabetes, cognitive decline and dementia including the shared pathogenesis between diabetes and Alzheimer’s disease. In addition, the self management of diabetes is affected by dementia and cognitive decline. It could be suggested that the association between diabetes and dementia is bidirectional with the potential to proceed to a vicious cycle. Further studies are needed in order to fully establish the relationship between diabetes, cognitive decline and dementia. Patients who have diabetes and dementia could benefit from structured education strategies, which should involve empowerment programmes and lifestyle changes. The detection of cognitive decline should highlight the need for education strategies. PMID:26193295

  10. Declinations in the Almagest: accuracy, epoch, and observers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brandt, John C.; Zimmer, Peter; Jones, Patricia B.

    2014-11-01

    Almagest declinations attributed to Timocharis, Aristyllos, Hipparchus, and Ptolemy are investigated through comparisons of the reported declinations with the declinations computed from modern positions translated to the earlier epochs. Consistent results indicate an observational accuracy of ≈ 0.1° and epochs of: Timocharis, c. 298 BC; Aristyllos, c. 256 BC, and Hipparchus, c. 128 BC.The ≈ 42-year difference between Aristyllos and Timocharis is confirmed to be statistically significant. The declinations attributed to Ptolemy were likely two distinct groups—observations taken c. AD 57 and observations taken c. AD 128. The later observations could have been taken by Ptolemy himself.

  11. 78 FR 73819 - Forest Resource Coordinating Committee

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-12-09

    ... Forest Service Forest Resource Coordinating Committee AGENCY: Forest Service, USDA. ACTION: Notice of...-18, 2013 meeting of the Forest Resource Coordinating Committee due to the Government partial shutdown... INFORMATION CONTACT: Maya Solomon, Forest Resource Coordinating Committee Program Coordinator; by phone...

  12. Comparison between two vegetation indices for measuring different types of forest damage in the north-eastern United States

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vogelmann, J. E.

    1990-01-01

    The relative effectiveness of the Landsat TM-derived normalized difference vegetative index (NDVI) and the short-wave IR to NIR ratio (SWIR/NIR) index was examined in measurements of different types of damage in several forest communities. The forests examined included a site with well-defined fir waves in New Hampshire, a site undergoing well-documented coniferous forest decline in Vermont, and predominantly deciduous regions in Vermont and northwestern Massachusetts seriously impacted by pear thrips. Both NDVI and SWIR/NIR images were produced for each area. Results demonstrated that the SWIR/NIR index was superior to NDVI in distinguishing between high and low conifer damage at both fir-wave and forest decline sites; high and low deciduous-forest damage sites were easily separable using either NDVI or SWIR/NIR, but the NDVI was superior in separation between medium and low deciduous damage.

  13. Land-use pressure and a transition to forest-cover loss in the Eastern United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Drummond, M.A.; Loveland, T.R.

    2010-01-01

    Contemporary land-use pressures have a significant impact on the extent and condition of forests in the eastern United States, causing a regional-scale decline in forest cover. Earlier in the 20th century, land cover was on a trajectory of forest expansion that followed agricultural abandonment. However, the potential for forest regeneration has slowed, and the extent of regional forest cover has declined by more than 4.0%. Using remote-sensing data, statistical sampling, and change-detection methods, this research shows how land conversion varies spatially and temporally across the East from 19732000, and how those changes affect regional land-change dynamics. The analysis shows that agricultural land use has continued to decline, and that this enables forest recovery; however, an important land-cover transition has occurred, from a mode of regional forest-cover gain to one of forest-cover loss caused by timber cutting cycles, urbanization, and other land-use demands. ?? 2010 by American Institute of Biological Sciences. All rights reserved.

  14. Approaches for Landscape-scale Forest Carbon Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Birdsey, R.; Pan, Y.; Wayson, C.; Johnson, K. D.; Zhang, F.; Chen, J. M.; Pinto, N.; Cook, B. D.; Masek, J. G.

    2011-12-01

    Increasingly, public and private forest landowners need to estimate their carbon stocks and analyze the impacts of alternate management plans. Here we describe approaches designed to work at landscape scales: one involves estimating carbon stocks from existing Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data; another involves downscaling results from a continental-scale biogeochemistry model known as InTEC; and the third uses LiDAR remote sensing to provide high-resolution biomass maps. Combining FIA data with a biogeochemistry model gives the most useful information for analyzing causes of historical trends, while the biomass maps support implementation of management decisions. These approaches are illustrated by pilot studies in the Eastern U.S. Analysis of FIA data for Northern Wisconsin revealed that private landowners held more than half of the forest carbon but that the rate of carbon sequestration had slowed dramatically over two decades. Causes of the decline were hypothesized to include increased harvesting, aging forests, and increasing disturbances. The InTEC model for the same region revealed trends over a much longer historical period as well as providing information about changes in soil C that are lacking in the FIA data analysis. The effects of long-term forest age dynamics and higher interannual climate variability became evident, and there is evidence of a significant contribution to net sequestration from increasing soil C stocks. Using this information base, we identified several ways to increase landscape-scale average forest carbon stocks: allow some forests to reach full maturity and highest carbon stocks; manage other forests to maximize carbon uptake and transfer of harvested carbon into wood products; and avoid conversion of existing forests to nonforest land uses. Strategic implementation of these kinds of management decisions can be facilitated with high-resolution biomass maps.

  15. Structure and composition of altered riparian forests in an agricultural Amazonian landscape.

    PubMed

    Nagy, R Chelsea; Porder, Stephen; Neill, Christopher; Brando, Paulo; Quintino, Raimundo Mota; do Nascimento, Sebastiâo Aviz

    2015-09-01

    Deforestation and fragmentation influence the microclimate, vegetation structure, and composition of remaining patches of tropical forest. In the southern Amazon, at the frontier of cropland expansion, forests are converted and fragmented in a pattern that leaves standing riparian forests whose dimensions are mandated by the Brazilian National Forest Code. These altered riparian forests share many characteristics of well-studied upland forest fragments, but differ because they remain connected to larger areas of forest downstream, and because they may experience wetter soil conditions because reduction of forest cover in the surrounding watershed raises groundwater levels and increases stream runoff. We compared forest regeneration, structure, composition, and diversity in four areas of intact riparian forest and four areas each of narrow, medium, and wide altered riparian forests that have been surrounded by agriculture since the early 1980s. We found that seedling abundance was reduced by as much as 64% and sapling abundance was reduced by as much as 67% in altered compared to intact riparian forests. The most pronounced differences between altered and intact forest occurred near forest edges and within the narrowest sections of altered riparian forests. Woody plant species composition differed and diversity was reduced in altered forests compared to intact riparian forests. However, despite being fragmented for several decades, large woody plant biomass and carbon storage, the number of live or dead large woody plants, mortality rates, and the size distribution of woody plants did not differ significantly between altered and intact riparian forests. Thus, even in these relatively narrow forests with high edge: area ratios, we saw no evidence of the increases in mortality and declines in biomass that have been found in other tropical forest fragment studies. However, because of the changes in both species community and reduced regeneration, it is unclear how long

  16. Hawaii Forest Bird Interagency Database Project: Collecting, Understanding, and Sharing Population Data on Hawaiian Forest Birds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pratt, Thane K.; Woodworth, Bethany L.; Camp, Richard J.; Gorresen, P. Marcos

    2006-01-01

    The forest birds of the Hawaiian Islands are distinguished by the diversity of endemic forms derived from a small number of ancestral colonists. However, the avifauna has been decimated by human activities both before and after Western contact. At least 71 species or subspecies disappeared before the arrival of Capt. James Cook in 1778, and an additional 24 went extinct after 1778, of which 11 were lost since the 1960s alone. Many of the remaining Hawaiian bird populations are declining or are in danger of extinction. Vigorous efforts to survey and monitor bird populations over the past 3 decades have generated considerable information from which to assess the current status of the Hawaiian forest birds.

  17. Global patterns of ecosystem carbon flux in forests: A biometric data-based synthesis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Bing; Yang, Yuanhe; Li, Pin; Shen, Haihua; Fang, Jingyun

    2014-09-01

    Forest ecosystems function as a significant carbon sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide. However, our understanding of global patterns of forest carbon fluxes remains controversial. Here we examined global patterns and environmental controls of forest carbon balance using biometric measurements derived from 243 sites and synthesized from 81 publications around the world. Our results showed that both production and respiration increased with mean annual temperature and exhibited unimodal patterns along a gradient of precipitation. However, net ecosystem production (NEP) initially increased and subsequently declined along gradients of both temperature and precipitation. Our results also indicated that ecosystem production increased during stand development but eventually leveled off, whereas respiration was significantly higher in mature and old forests than in young forests. The residual variation of carbon flux along climatic and age gradients might be explained by other factors such as atmospheric CO2 elevation and disturbances (e.g., forest fire, storm damage, and selective harvest). Heterotrophic respiration (Rh) was positively associated with net primary production (NPP), but the Rh-NPP relationship differed between natural and planted forests: Rh increased exponentially with NPP in natural forests but tended toward saturation with increased NPP in planted forests. Comparison of biometric measurements with eddy covariance observations revealed that ecosystem carbon balance derived from the latter generated higher overall NEP estimates. These results suggest that the eddy covariance observations may overestimate the strength of carbon sinks, and thus, biometric measurements need to be incorporated into global assessments of the forest carbon balance.

  18. Expansion of forest stands into tundra in the Noatak National Preserve, northwest Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Suarez, F.; Binkley, D.; Kaye, M.W.; Stottlemyer, R.

    1999-01-01

    Temperatures across the northern regions of North America have been increasing for 150 years, and forests have responded to this increase. In the Noatak National Preserve in Alaska, white spruce (Picea glauca [Moench] Voss) forests reach their northern limit, occurring primarily on well-drained sites and as gallery forests along streams. Rolling plateaus of tundra separate the white spruce forests into disjunct stands. We examined patterns of tree age, tree growth, and tree encroachment into tundra ecosystems in six stands along the Agashashok River. Warming over the past 150 years appears to have increased tree growth and resulted in forest expansion into adjacent tundra ecosystems. The forest/tundra ecotone shifted by about 80 to 100 m into the tundra in the past 200 years, as evidenced by declining maximum tree age with distance towards the tundra. The decadal-scale pattern of tree establishment at the farthest extent of trees into the tundra (the tundra-forest ecotone) correlated with the detrended growth index for trees within the forests; climate conditions that led to higher tree growth appeared to foster tree establishment in the tundra. This recent forest expansion has occurred across topographic boundaries, from well-drained soils on slopes onto poorly drained, flatter areas of tundra. Further expansion of the forests may be limited by more severe wind exposure and poor drainage that make the majority of tundra less suitable for trees.

  19. Forest loss and the biodiversity threshold: an evaluation considering species habitat requirements and the use of matrix habitats.

    PubMed

    Estavillo, Candelaria; Pardini, Renata; da Rocha, Pedro Luís Bernardo

    2013-01-01

    Habitat loss is the main driver of the current biodiversity crisis, a landscape-scale process that affects the survival of spatially-structured populations. Although it is well-established that species responses to habitat loss can be abrupt, the existence of a biodiversity threshold is still the cause of much controversy in the literature and would require that most species respond similarly to the loss of native vegetation. Here we test the existence of a biodiversity threshold, i.e. an abrupt decline in species richness, with habitat loss. We draw on a spatially-replicated dataset on Atlantic forest small mammals, consisting of 16 sampling sites divided between forests and matrix habitats in each of five 3600-ha landscapes (varying from 5% to 45% forest cover), and on an a priori classification of species into habitat requirement categories (forest specialists, habitat generalists and open-area specialists). Forest specialists declined abruptly below 30% of forest cover, and spillover to the matrix occurred only in more forested landscapes. Generalists responded positively to landscape heterogeneity, peaking at intermediary levels of forest cover. Open area specialists dominated the matrix and did not spillover to forests. As a result of these distinct responses, we observed a biodiversity threshold for the small mammal community below 30% forest cover, and a peak in species richness just above this threshold. Our results highlight that cross habitat spillover may be asymmetrical and contingent on landscape context, occurring mainly from forests to the matrix and only in more forested landscapes. Moreover, they indicate the potential for biodiversity thresholds in human-modified landscapes, and the importance of landscape heterogeneity to biodiversity. Since forest loss affected not only the conservation value of forest patches, but also the potential for biodiversity-mediated services in anthropogenic habitats, our work indicates the importance of proactive

  20. [Evaluation of ecological services of Populus simonii forest on Heerqin sandy land].

    PubMed

    Zhang, Hua; Li, Fengrui; Zhang, Tonghui; Zhao, Liya; Yasuhito, Shirato

    2003-10-01

    The main ecological services of the sand-fixed forest are windbreak, soil erosion control, and atmospheric dust retention. In this paper, the ecological services of Populus simonii forest were assessed by simultaneous measurements of wind speeds, daily amount of soil surface wind erosion, and amount of atmospheric dust deposition at different observation sites located within and outside the forestland. The results showed that compared with the control site (mobile sand dune), the daily mean wind velocity at 2 m height was reduced by 18.3, 31.6, 66.1, 66.0, 62.3 and 45.2% for the observation sites over the distances of 6 and 3 H (H meant average tree height) from forest edge of the windward side, forest center, and observation sites over the distances of 0, 6 and 8 H from forest edge of the leeward side, respectively. The greatest reduction in daily mean wind velocity was occurred in both forest center and forest edge of the leeward side. There was a significant positive relationship between leaf area index of the forest and monthly declining index of mean wind speed. The monthly declining index of mean wind speed increased with increasing the forest leaf area index by a cubic function. The daily wind erosion rates of soil surface in observation sites at 6 and 3 H from forest edge of the windward side, forest center, and at 0, 6 and 8 H from forest edge of the leeward side were reduced by as much as 85.2%-99.9%, in comparison with the control site. The greatest reduction in daily wind erosion rate of soil surface occurred in forest edge of the leeward side, followed in decreasing order by forest center, 6 and 8 H from forest edge of the leeward side, 3 and 6 H from forest edge of the windward side. During the observation period, the daily mean dust deposition within the forestland was 13.2 kg.hm-2, compared with 9.9 kg.hm-2 outside the forestland, with a 33% increase. All these results suggested that the poplar forest played an important role in reducing damaging

  1. Landscape-moderated bird nest predation in hedges and forest edges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ludwig, Martin; Schlinkert, Hella; Holzschuh, Andrea; Fischer, Christina; Scherber, Christoph; Trnka, Alfréd; Tscharntke, Teja; Batáry, Péter

    2012-11-01

    Landscape-scale agricultural intensification has caused severe declines in biodiversity. Hedges and forest remnants may mitigate biodiversity loss by enhancing landscape heterogeneity and providing habitat to a wide range of species, including birds. However, nest predation, the major cause of reproductive failure of birds, has been shown to be higher in forest edges than in forest interiors. Little is known about how spatial arrangement (configuration) of hedges affects the avian nest predation. We performed an experiment with artificial ground and elevated nests (resembling yellowhammer and whitethroat nests) baited with quail and plasticine eggs. Nests were placed in three habitat types with different degrees of isolation from forests: forest edges, hedges connected to forests and hedges isolated from forests. Nest predation was highest in forest edges, lowest in hedges connected to forests and intermediate in isolated hedges. In the early breeding season, we found similar nest predation on ground and elevated nests, but in the late breeding season nest predation was higher on ground nests than on elevated nests. Small mammals were the main predators of ground nests and appeared to be responsible for the increase in predation from early to late breeding season, whereas the elevated nests were mainly depredated by small birds and small mammals. High predation pressure at forest edges was probably caused by both forest and open-landscape predators. The influence of forest predators may be lower at hedges, leading to lower predation pressure than in forest edges. Higher predation pressure in isolated than connected hedges might be an effect of concentration of predators in these isolated habitats. We conclude that landscape configuration of hedges is important in nest predation, with connected hedges allowing higher survival than isolated hedges and forest edges.

  2. Changes in Forest Soil Properties in Different Successional Stages in Lower Tropical China

    PubMed Central

    Li, Yuelin; Yang, Fangfang; Ou, Yangxu; Zhang, Deqiang; Liu, Juxiu; Chu, Guowei; Zhang, Yaru; Otieno, Dennis; Zhou, Guoyi

    2013-01-01

    Background Natural forest succession often affects soil physical and chemical properties. Selected physical and chemical soil properties were studied in an old-growth forest across a forest successional series in Dinghushan Nature Reserve, Southern China. Methodology/Principal Findings The aim was to assess the effects of forest succession change on soil properties. Soil samples (0–20 cm depth) were collected from three forest types at different succession stages, namely pine (Pinus massoniana) forest (PMF), mixed pine and broadleaf forest (PBMF) and monsoon evergreen broadleaf forest (MEBF), representing early, middle and advanced successional stages respectively. The soil samples were analyzed for soil water storage (SWS), soil organic matter (SOM), soil microbial biomass carbon (SMBC), pH, NH4+-N, available potassium (K), available phosphorus (P) and microelements (available copper (Cu), available zinc (Zn), available iron (Fe) and available boron (B)) between 1999 and 2009. The results showed that SWS, SOM, SMBC, Cu, Zn, Fe and B concentrations were higher in the advanced successional stage (MEBF stage). Conversely, P and pH were lower in the MEBF but higher in the PMF (early successional stage). pH, NH4+-N, P and K declined while SOM, Zn, Cu, Fe and B increased with increasing forest age. Soil pH was lower than 4.5 in the three forest types, indicating that the surface soil was acidic, a stable trend in Dinghushan. Conclusion/Significance These findings demonstrated significant impacts of natural succession in an old-growth forest on the surface soil nutrient properties and organic matter. Changes in soil properties along the forest succession gradient may be a useful index for evaluating the successional stages of the subtropical forests. We caution that our inferences are drawn from a pseudo-replicated chronosequence, as true replicates were difficult to find. Further studies are needed to draw rigorous conclusions regarding on nutrient dynamics in

  3. Estimating the value of watershed services following forest restoration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mueller, Julie M.; Swaffar, Wes; Nielsen, Erik A.; Springer, Abraham E.; Lopez, Sharon Masek

    2013-04-01

    Declining forest health, climate change, and development threaten the sustainability of water supplies in the western United States. While forest restoration may buffer threats to watershed services, funding shortfalls for landscape-scale restoration efforts limit management action. The hydrologic response and reduction in risk to watersheds following forest restoration treatments could create significant nonmarket benefits for downstream water users. Historic experimental watershed studies indicate a significant and positive response from forest thinning by a reallocation of water from evapotranspiration to surface-water yield. In this study, we estimate the willingness to pay (WTP) for improved watershed services for one group of downstream users, irrigators, following forest restoration activities. We find a positive and statistically significant WTP within our sample of 183.50 per household, at an aggregated benefit of more than 400,000 annually for 2181 irrigators. Our benefit estimate provides evidence that downstream irrigators may be willing to invest in landscape-scale forest restoration to maintain watershed services.

  4. What is the future of Amazon forests under climate change?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saleska, S. R.; Huete, A.; Ratana, P.; Da Rocha, H.; Tannus, R.; Restrepo, N.; Kruijt, B.; von Randow, C.

    2007-05-01

    Large changes in Amazon carbon and water cycles, as predicted to occur with climate change by some coupled carbon/climate models, are expected to have global impact. Some models predict that these forests may be vulnerable to catastrophic collapse due to global warming-induced increases in drought, whilst others do not. Hence it is critically important to understand the mechanisms of forest-climate interactions in Amazonia. In order to address this question on observable timescales, we propose investigations at annual to decadal timescales which can give insight into the mechanisms that, in the model simulations, cause forest collapse. We first investigated large-scale seasonal and spatial patterns of Amazonian carbon fluxes, and the effects of land-use conversion thereon, by combining spatially continuous satellite data from the Terra- Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) with data from a network of ground-based eddy flux towers. This work showed that primary forest photosynthetic activity begins its seasonal increase in the dry season, well before onset of the wet-season, a broad pattern opposite to that predicted by ecosystem models which simulate dry-season declines in primary forest photosynthesis due to water-limitation. Extending these observations to decadal timescales, ideally through another large ENSO-scale drought, should give strong insight into the longer term mechanisms implicated in predictions of Amazon forest collapse.

  5. Conserving biodiversity in managed forests: Lessons from natural forests

    SciTech Connect

    Hansen, A.J. ); Spies, T.A.; Swanson, F.J.; Ohmann, J.L. )

    1991-06-01

    In this article, the authors review patterns of disturbance and succession in natural forests in the Coastal Northwest and compare structure and composition across an age gradient of unmanaged stands. Stand and landscape patterns in managed forests are then examined and compared with those in natural forests. They draw on the results to offer guidance on the management of Coastal Northwest forests that are dedicated to both wood production and conservation of biodiversity. Finally, the authors suggest that the lessons learned from natural forests here may be useful in other biomes, where unmanaged forests are rare and standards for designing seminatural forests are not available.

  6. Managing School Districts in a Decade of Decline.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hathaway, Walter E.

    Due to enrollment decline, reductions in federal support, and declining state support because of a constricted economy, growing inflation, expanding government and legal requirements, and the loss of public confidence in education, the Portland School District (Oregon) developed a short-term contingency budget planning process in fiscal 1980-81 to…

  7. AMPHIBIAN DECLINE, ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION AND LOCAL POPULATION ADAPTATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    Amphibian population declines have been noted on both local and global scales. Causes for these declines are unknown although many hypotheses have been offered. In areas adjacent to human development, loss of habitat is a fairly well accepted cause. However in isolated, seemingl...

  8. Does Child Labor Decline with Improving Economic Status?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Edmonds, Eric V.

    2005-01-01

    The rapid economic growth of Vietnam provides an interesting insight into the sharp decline in child labor. A study of the rising economic status of the population across Vietnam shows that children returned to school or stopped working as their family incomes grew. The decline in child labor is steep in poor households as they emerged from…

  9. 34 CFR 303.405 - Parent right to decline service.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... TODDLERS WITH DISABILITIES Procedural Safeguards General § 303.405 Parent right to decline service. The... 34 Education 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Parent right to decline service. 303.405 Section 303.405 Education Regulations of the Offices of the Department of Education (Continued) OFFICE OF...

  10. Patterns of widespread decline in North American bumble bees

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Declining abundance and range shifts of bumble bee (Bombus) species have been observed in Europe and Asia. However, the status of North America’s bumble bee species has been largely unstudied. Recent reports based on local or regional observations suggest that parallel declines are taking place in N...

  11. Did the Decline in Social Connections Depress Americans' Happiness?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bartolini, Stefano; Bilancini, Ennio; Pugno, Maurizio

    2013-01-01

    During the last 30 years US citizens experienced, on average, a decline in reported happiness, social connections, and confidence in institutions. We show that a remarkable portion of the decrease in happiness is predicted by the decline in social connections and confidence in institutions. We carry out our investigation in three steps. First, we…

  12. Conservation biology: strict marine protected areas prevent reef shark declines.

    PubMed

    Dulvy, Nicholas K

    2006-12-01

    Populations of two coral reef shark species are declining rapidly: the pattern of decline highlights both the substantial impact of poaching on closed areas and the success of strict no-entry marine protected areas in maintaining healthy shark populations. PMID:17141604

  13. Organizational Decline and Effectiveness in Private Higher Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smart, John C.

    1989-01-01

    A study to determine the relationship between organizational decline and three domains of effectiveness (academic, morale, and external adaptation) in private colleges and universities is discussed. The results demonstrate that the relationship between decline and effectiveness is not uniform across three types of institutions. (Author/MLW)

  14. Why have ovarian cancer mortality rates declined? Part I. Incidence.

    PubMed

    Sopik, Victoria; Iqbal, Javaid; Rosen, Barry; Narod, Steven A

    2015-09-01

    The age-adjusted mortality rate from ovarian cancer in the United States has declined over the past several decades. The decline in mortality might be the consequence of a reduced number of cases (incidence) or a reduction in the proportion of patients who die from their cancer (case-fatality). In part I of this three-part series, we examine rates of ovarian cancer incidence and mortality from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) registry database and we explore to what extent the observed decline in mortality can be explained by a downward shift in the stage distribution of ovarian cancer (i.e. due to early detection) or by fewer cases of ovarian cancer (i.e. due to a change in risk factors). The proportion of localized ovarian cancers did not increase, suggesting that a stage-shift did not contribute to the decline in mortality. The observed decline in mortality paralleled a decline in incidence. The trends in ovarian cancer incidence coincided with temporal changes in the exposure of women from different birth cohorts to various reproductive risk factors, in particular, to changes in the use of the oral contraceptive pill and to declining parity. Based on recent changes in risk factor propensity, we predict that the trend of the declining age-adjusted incidence rate of ovarian cancer in the United States will reverse and rates will increase in coming years. PMID:26080287

  15. Patterns of widespread decline in North America bumble bees

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Declining abundance and range shifts of bumble bee (Bombus) species have been observed in Europe and Asia. However, the status of North America’s bumble bee species has been largely unstudied. Recent reports based on local or regional observations suggest that parallel declines are taking place in N...

  16. Management of anthurium decline caused by Radopholus similis

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Anthurium decline is a chronic problem in anthurium production in Hawaii. Anthurium decline has worsened with the removal of fenamiphos from the market. Growers need environmentally sound post-plant treatments to augment preplant management tactics. Avermectin (Avid, monthly), thiophanate-methyl (Cl...

  17. Forest canopy interactions with nucleation mode particles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pryor, S. C.; Hornsby, K. E.; Novick, K. A.

    2014-11-01

    Ultrafine particle size distributions through a deciduous forest canopy indicate that nucleation mode particle concentrations decline with depth into the canopy, such that number concentrations at the bottom of the canopy are an average of 16% lower than those at the top. However, growth rates of nucleation mode particles (diameters 6-30 nm) are invariant with height within the canopy, which implies that the semi-volatile gases contributing to their growth are comparatively well-mixed through the canopy. Growth rates of nucleation mode particles during a meteorological drought year (2012) were substantially lower than during a meteorologically normal year with high soil water potential (2013). This may reflect suppression of actual biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions by drought and thus a reduction in the production of condensable products during the drought-affected vegetation season. This hypothesis is supported by evidence that growth rates during the normal year exhibit a positive correlation with emissions of BVOC modeled on observed forest composition, leaf area index, temperature and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), but particle growth rates during the drought-affected vegetation season are not correlated with modeled BVOC emissions. These data thus provide indirect evidence that drought stress in forests may reduce BVOC emissions and limit growth of nucleation mode particles to climate-relevant sizes.

  18. Postfire Forest Recovery in California's National Forests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Welch, K.; Young, T.; Safford, H.

    2012-12-01

    Due to fire suppression policies and other management practices over the last century, many low- to mid-elevation forest types in the Sierra Nevada have accumulated high fuel loads that promote stand-replacing high-intensity fires. Current and future projected trends in climate are predicted to increase the occurrence of such fires. We established over 1,000 plots in a range of elevations, environments, forest types, climate zones and fire severity classes to provide insight into the factors that promote natural tree regeneration after wildfires, the limiting factors in species establishment, and the differences in post-fire responses of conifers and hardwoods. We employed a standardized protocol that measured site characteristics, seedling densities, and woody plant growth. Preliminary results reveal that fire severity generally has a unimodal relationship with rates of natural regeneration, although effects of site and local environment act to modulate the shape of the relationship. Above low to moderate severities, natural regeneration rates of all tree species decrease with increasing severity, possibly due to a combination of factors including seed mortality, increasing distance to the nearest living seed tree, and more severe microclimatic conditions. Though hardwoods (oaks) are able to both seed and resprout from top-killed root crowns in a postfire environment, conifers still have the numerical advantage over hardwoods through seeding alone. We did not find evidence that shrubs have a strong either facilitative or competitive effect on conifer seedling establishment or growth in the first five years of forest recovery. Understanding forest recovery and regeneration processes after high severity fires is critical to appropriately applying management strategies on National Forest lands.

  19. Mechanisms of transcription-repair coupling and mutation frequency decline.

    PubMed Central

    Selby, C P; Sancar, A

    1994-01-01

    Mutation frequency decline is the rapid and irreversible decline in the suppressor mutation frequency of Escherichia coli cells if the cells are kept in nongrowth media immediately following the mutagenic treatment. The gene mfd, which is necessary for mutation frequency decline, encodes a protein of 130 kDa which couples transcription to excision repair by binding to RNA polymerase and to UvrA, which is the damage recognition subunit of the excision repair enzyme. Although current evidence suggests that transcription-repair coupling is the cause of the preferential repair of the transcribed strand of mRNA encoding genes as well as of suppressor tRNA genes, the decline occurs under stringent response conditions in which the tRNA genes are not efficiently transcribed. Thus, the mechanism of strand-specific repair is well understood, but some questions remain regarding the precise mechanism of mutation frequency decline. PMID:7968917

  20. Characterizing declines in pediatric antidepressant use after new risk disclosures

    PubMed Central

    Frank, Richard G.; Martin, Andres; Barry, Colleen L.

    2010-01-01

    Steep declines in pediatric antidepressant use were documented following the 2004 release of new safety information associating antidepressants with a risk of suicidality. We examine whether declines in pediatric antidepressant use were steeper among individuals with certain clinical or family characteristics. We find that declines in antidepressant use were associated with new (as compared to ongoing) treatment episodes. Also, although rates of antidepressant use were higher among children of college educated parents prior to risk disclosures, these children were more likely to forgo antidepressant medication than children of less educated parents after risk disclosures. We find that both children with and without psychiatric impairment experienced declines in antidepressant medication use following the risk warnings, although the decline occurred more quickly in the latter group. Our findings highlight the need for additional data to assess the effects of risk disclosures on treatment patterns and health outcomes. PMID:20675349

  1. Phylobetadiversity among Forest Types in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest Complex

    PubMed Central

    Duarte, Leandro Da Silva; Bergamin, Rodrigo Scarton; Marcilio-Silva, Vinícius; Seger, Guilherme Dubal Dos Santos; Marques, Márcia Cristina Mendes

    2014-01-01

    Phylobetadiversity is defined as the phylogenetic resemblance between communities or biomes. Analyzing phylobetadiversity patterns among different vegetation physiognomies within a single biome is crucial to understand the historical affinities between them. Based on the widely accepted idea that different forest physiognomies within the Southern Brazilian Atlantic Forest constitute different facies of a single biome, we hypothesize that more recent phylogenetic nodes should drive phylobetadiversity gradients between the different forest types within the Atlantic Forest, as the phylogenetic divergence among those forest types is biogeographically recent. We compiled information from 206 checklists describing the occurrence of shrub/tree species across three different forest physiognomies within the Southern Brazilian Atlantic Forest (Dense, Mixed and Seasonal forests). We analyzed intra-site phylogenetic structure (phylogenetic diversity, net relatedness index and nearest taxon index) and phylobetadiversity between plots located at different forest types, using five different methods differing in sensitivity to either basal or terminal nodes (phylogenetic fuzzy weighting, COMDIST, COMDISTNT, UniFrac and Rao’s H). Mixed forests showed higher phylogenetic diversity and overdispersion than the other forest types. Furthermore, all forest types differed from each other in relation phylobetadiversity patterns, particularly when phylobetadiversity methods more sensitive to terminal nodes were employed. Mixed forests tended to show higher phylogenetic differentiation to Dense and Seasonal forests than these latter from each other. The higher phylogenetic diversity and phylobetadiversity levels found in Mixed forests when compared to the others likely result from the biogeographical origin of several taxa occurring in these forests. On one hand, Mixed forests shelter several temperate taxa, like the conifers Araucaria and Podocarpus. On the other hand, tropical groups

  2. A Comparison of Forest Survey Data with Forest Dynamics Simulators FORCLIM and ZELIG along Climatic Gradients in the Pacific Northwest

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Busing, Richard T.; Solomon, Allen M.

    2004-01-01

    Two forest dynamics simulators are compared along climatic gradients in the Pacific Northwest. The ZELIG and FORCLIM models are tested against forest survey data from western Oregon. Their ability to generate accurate patterns of forest basal area and species composition is evaluated for series of sites with contrasting climate. Projections from both models approximate the basal area and composition patterns for three sites along the elevation gradient at H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest in the western Cascade Range. The ZELIG model is somewhat more accurate than FORCLIM at the two low-elevation sites. Attempts to project forest composition along broader climatic gradients reveal limitations of ZELIG, however. For example, ZELIG is less accurate than FORCLIM at projecting the average composition of a west Cascades ecoregion selected for intensive analysis. Also, along a gradient consisting of several sites on an east to west transect at 44.1oN latitude, both the FORCLIM model and the actual data show strong changes in composition and total basal area, but the ZELIG model shows a limited response. ZELIG does not simulate the declines in forest basal area and the diminished dominance of mesic coniferous species east of the Cascade crest. We conclude that ZELIG is suitable for analyses of certain sites for which it has been calibrated. FORCLIM can be applied in analyses involving a range of climatic conditions without requiring calibration for specific sites.

  3. 78 FR 23903 - Forest Service

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-04-23

    ... Forest Service Dixie Resource Advisory Committee AGENCY: Forest Service, USDA. ACTION: Notice of meeting... recommendations to the Forest Service concerning projects and funding consistent with Title II of the Act. The meeting is open to the public. The purpose of the meeting is to review proposals for forest projects...

  4. Protecting rain forests and forager's rights using LANDSAT imagery

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilkie, David S.

    1991-01-01

    Creating rain forest reserves is vital given the global decline in biodiversity. Yet, the plants and animals that will be protected from untrammeled commercial exploitation within such reserves constitute essential resources for indigenous foragers and farmers. Balancing the needs of local subsistence level populations with the goals of national and international conservation agencies requires a thorough understanding of the mutual impacts that arise from the interaction of park and people. In the Ituri forest of Zaire, LANDSAT TM image analysis and GPS ground truth data were used to locate human settlements so that boundaries of the proposed Okapi Reserve could be chosen to minimize its impact on the subsistence practices of the local foragers and farmers. Using satellite imagery in conjunction with cultural information should help to ensure traditional resource exploitation rights of indigenous peoples whilst simultaneously protecting the largest contiguous area of undisturbed forest.

  5. The importance of mangrove forest in tsunami disaster mitigation.

    PubMed

    Osti, Rabindra; Tanaka, Shigenobu; Tokioka, Toshikazu

    2009-04-01

    Tsunamis and storm surges have killed more than one million people and some three billion people currently live with a high risk of these disasters, which are becoming more frequent and devastating worldwide. Effective mitigation of such disasters is possible via healthy coastal forests, which can reduce the energy of tsunamis. In recent years, these natural barriers have declined due to adverse human and natural activities. In the past 20 years, the world has lost almost 50 per cent of its mangrove forests, making them one of the most endangered landscapes. It is essential to recover them and to use them as a shield against a tsunami and as a resource to secure optimal socio-economic, ecological and environmental benefits. This paper examines the emerging scenario facing mangrove forests, discusses protection from tsunamis, and proposes a way to improve the current situation. We hope that practical tips will help communities and agencies to work collectively to achieve a common goal. PMID:18699857

  6. Using Our National Forests Wisely.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Feuchter, Roy

    1987-01-01

    Lists nine steps camps can follow to insure successful use of national forests. Steps are identifying national forest resources; matching expectations with the right setting; using recreation opportunity guides; planning for safety; practicing forest etiquette; practicing fire prevention; knowing the forest environment; participating in volunteer…

  7. Unravelling the annual cycle in a migratory animal: breeding-season habitat loss drives population declines of monarch butterflies.

    PubMed

    Flockhart, D T Tyler; Pichancourt, Jean-Baptiste; Norris, D Ryan; Martin, Tara G

    2015-01-01

    Threats to migratory animals can occur at multiple periods of the annual cycle that are separated by thousands of kilometres and span international borders. Populations of the iconic monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) of eastern North America have declined over the last 21 years. Three hypotheses have been posed to explain the decline: habitat loss on the overwintering grounds in Mexico, habitat loss on the breeding grounds in the United States and Canada, and extreme weather events. Our objectives were to assess population viability, determine which life stage, season and geographical region are contributing the most to population dynamics and test the three hypotheses that explain the observed population decline. We developed a spatially structured, stochastic and density-dependent periodic projection matrix model that integrates patterns of migratory connectivity and demographic vital rates across the annual cycle. We used perturbation analysis to determine the sensitivity of population abundance to changes in vital rate among life stages, seasons and geographical regions. Next, we compared the singular effects of each threat to the full model where all factors operate concurrently. Finally, we generated predictions to assess the risk of host plant loss as a result of genetically modified crops on current and future monarch butterfly population size and extinction probability. Our year-round population model predicted population declines of 14% and a quasi-extinction probability (<1000 individuals) >5% within a century. Monarch abundance was more than four times more sensitive to perturbations of vital rates on the breeding grounds than on the wintering grounds. Simulations that considered only forest loss or climate change in Mexico predicted higher population sizes compared to milkweed declines on the breeding grounds. Our model predictions also suggest that mitigating the negative effects of genetically modified crops results in higher population size and

  8. Air pollution and the dying forests of Europe

    SciTech Connect

    Plochmann, R.

    1984-06-01

    The decline of forests in the Federal Republic of Germany and other European countries is described. Symptoms include: loss of needles; change in color; crooked or deformed growth of shoots; damage to the bark; resin exudation; changes in stem form; development of wet, discolored areas in the wood; and damage to fine roots. Diameter growth of affected trees is greatly reduced. Tree ring studies show a gradual decline in growth over the past 15-20 years, long before foliage symptoms became evident. Trees of all ages have been affected, but damage is most severe in older stands. Several theories have been advanced to explain the causes of the decline. Damage may be caused by air pollution, fungal atttack, changes in climate, increased acidity of soils, toxic effects of aluminum or other elements released when soil is very acid, and individual sensitivity. Damaged trees are also more susceptible to diseases and insects. There is general agreement that air pollution is the basic cause of injury. Economic and environmental consequences accompanying forest decline include a $400-500 million loss as a result of a 20% drop in timber production, and loss of about 800,000 jobs which depend on the timber industry. Consequences for water quality and quantity, erosion control, agricultural land, recreation and community well-being are difficult to evaluate but could be dramatic and long-lasting. 2 figures, 3 tables.

  9. Emulating Natural Disturbances for Declining Late-Successional Species: A Case Study of the Consequences for Cerulean Warblers (Setophaga cerulea)

    PubMed Central

    Boves, Than J.; Buehler, David A.; Sheehan, James; Wood, Petra Bohall; Rodewald, Amanda D.; Larkin, Jeffrey L.; Keyser, Patrick D.; Newell, Felicity L.; George, Gregory A.; Bakermans, Marja H.; Evans, Andrea; Beachy, Tiffany A.; McDermott, Molly E.; Perkins, Kelly A.; White, Matthew; Wigley, T. Bently

    2013-01-01

    Forest cover in the eastern United States has increased over the past century and while some late-successional species have benefited from this process as expected, others have experienced population declines. These declines may be in part related to contemporary reductions in small-scale forest interior disturbances such as fire, windthrow, and treefalls. To mitigate the negative impacts of disturbance alteration and suppression on some late-successional species, strategies that emulate natural disturbance regimes are often advocated, but large-scale evaluations of these practices are rare. Here, we assessed the consequences of experimental disturbance (using partial timber harvest) on a severely declining late-successional species, the cerulean warbler (Setophaga cerulea), across the core of its breeding range in the Appalachian Mountains. We measured numerical (density), physiological (body condition), and demographic (age structure and reproduction) responses to three levels of disturbance and explored the potential impacts of disturbance on source-sink dynamics. Breeding densities of warblers increased one to four years after all canopy disturbances (vs. controls) and males occupying territories on treatment plots were in better condition than those on control plots. However, these beneficial effects of disturbance did not correspond to improvements in reproduction; nest success was lower on all treatment plots than on control plots in the southern region and marginally lower on light disturbance plots in the northern region. Our data suggest that only habitats in the southern region acted as sources, and interior disturbances in this region have the potential to create ecological traps at a local scale, but sources when viewed at broader scales. Thus, cerulean warblers would likely benefit from management that strikes a landscape-level balance between emulating natural disturbances in order to attract individuals into areas where current structure is

  10. Emulating natural disturbances for declining late-successional species: A case study of the consequences for Cerulean Warblers (Setophaga cerulea)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Boves, Than J.; Buehler, David A.; Sheehan, James; Wood, Petra Bohall; Rodewald, Amanda D.; Larkin, Jeffrey L.; Keyser, Patrick D.; Newell, Felicity L.; George, Gregory A.; Bakermans, Marja H.; Evans, Andrea; Beachy, Tiffany A.; McDermott, Molly E.; Perkins, Kelly A.; White, Matthew; Wigley, T. Bently

    2013-01-01

    Forest cover in the eastern United States has increased over the past century and while some late-successional species have benefited from this process as expected, others have experienced population declines. These declines may be in part related to contemporary reductions in small-scale forest interior disturbances such as fire, windthrow, and treefalls. To mitigate the negative impacts of disturbance alteration and suppression on some late-successional species, strategies that emulate natural disturbance regimes are often advocated, but large-scale evaluations of these practices are rare. Here, we assessed the consequences of experimental disturbance (using partial timber harvest) on a severely declining late-successional species, the cerulean warbler (Setophaga cerulea), across the core of its breeding range in the Appalachian Mountains. We measured numerical (density), physiological (body condition), and demographic (age structure and reproduction) responses to three levels of disturbance and explored the potential impacts of disturbance on source-sink dynamics. Breeding densities of warblers increased one to four years after all canopy disturbances (vs. controls) and males occupying territories on treatment plots were in better condition than those on control plots. However, these beneficial effects of disturbance did not correspond to improvements in reproduction; nest success was lower on all treatment plots than on control plots in the southern region and marginally lower on light disturbance plots in the northern region. Our data suggest that only habitats in the southern region acted as sources, and interior disturbances in this region have the potential to create ecological traps at a local scale, but sources when viewed at broader scales. Thus, cerulean warblers would likely benefit from management that strikes a landscape-level balance between emulating natural disturbances in order to attract individuals into areas where current structure is

  11. Monitoring oak-hickory forest change during an unprecedented red oak borer outbreak in the Ozark Mountains: 1990 to 2006

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, Joshua S.; Tullis, Jason A.; Haavik, Laurel J.; Guldin, James M.; Stephen, Fred M.

    2014-01-01

    Upland oak-hickory forests in Arkansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma experienced oak decline in the late 1990s and early 2000s during an unprecedented outbreak of a native beetle, the red oak borer (ROB), Enaphalodes rufulus (Haldeman). Although remote sensing supports frequent monitoring of continuously changing forests, comparable in situ observations are critical for developing an understanding of past and potential ROB damage in the Ozark Mountains. We categorized forest change using a normalized difference water index (NDWI) applied to multitemporal Landsat TM and ETM+ imagery (1990, 2001, and 2006). Levels of decline or growth were categorized using simple statistical thresholds of change in the NDWI over time. Corresponding decline and growth areas were then observed in situ where tree diameter, age, crown condition, and species composition were measured within variable radius plots. Using a machine learning decision tree classifier, remote sensing-derived decline and growth was characterized in terms of in situ observation. Plots with tree quadratic mean diameter at breast height ≥21.5 cm were categorized remotely as in severe decline. Landsat TM/ETM+-based NDWI derivatives reveal forest decline and regrowth in post-ROB outbreak surveys. Historical and future Landsat-based canopy change detection should be incorporated with existing landscape-based prediction of ROB hazard.

  12. Teaching Succession with Forests.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stronck, David R.

    1982-01-01

    Suggesting advantages of using forests to teach succession, briefly outlines procedures for gathering evidence of succession including numbers, ages, and sizes of trees. Five plot studies conducted by students at the University of Victoria are also described. (DC)

  13. MASSACHUSETTS MRLC FOREST

    EPA Science Inventory

    The MRLC Forest datalayer is a derivative of the National Land Cover Datalayer (NLCD) developed from Thematic Mapper satellite data acquired by the Multi-Resoultion Land Characterization (MRLC) Consortium. The following landcover classes (with class numbers in parentheses) were...

  14. NATIONAL FOREST BOUNDARIES

    EPA Science Inventory

    This dataset contains National Forest boundaries for the lower 48 states, including Puerto Rico. Alaska is maintained separately. This dataset includes administrative unit boundaries, derived primarily from the GSTC SOC data system, comprised of Cartographic Feature Files (CFFs...

  15. Forest Fire Ecology.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zucca, Carol; And Others

    1995-01-01

    Presents a model that integrates high school science with the needs of the local scientific community. Describes how a high school ecology class conducted scientific research in fire ecology that benefited the students and a state park forest ecologist. (MKR)

  16. Trading forest carbon - OSU

    EPA Science Inventory

    Issues associate with trading carbon sequestered in forests are discussed. Scientific uncertainties associated with carbon measurement are discussed with respect to proposed accounting procedures. Major issues include: (1) Establishing baselines. (2) Determining additivity from f...

  17. On the decline of the Rusty Blackbird and the use of ornithological literature to document long-term population trends

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Greenberg, R.; Droege, S.

    1999-01-01

    Unlike most North American blackbirds, Rusty Blackbirds (Euphagus carolensis) have shown steep population declines. Declines of approximately 90% are indicated for three recent decades from the Breeding Bird Survey, Christmas Bird Counts, and Quebec Checklist Program. Analyses of abundance classifications in bird distribution books and annotated checklists reveal an overlooked but long-term decline dating back to at least the early part of this century. Rusty Blackbirds were described as very common to abundant in 5656 of the pre-192O published accounts, 19% of the 1921-1950 accounts, and only 7% of the post-1950 accounts. Rusty Blackbirds were described as uncommon in none of the pre-1950 accounts, 18% of the 1951-1980 accounts, and 43% of the post-1980 accounts. A similar pattern was found for analyses based on local checklists. Destruction of wooded wetlands on wintering grounds, acid precipitation, and the conversion of boreal forest wetlands could have contributed to these declines. Systematic analysis of regional guides and checklists provides a valuable tool for examining large-scale and long-term population changes in birds.

  18. Continent-wide tracking to determine migratory connectivity and tropical habitat associations of a declining aerial insectivore

    PubMed Central

    Fraser, Kevin C.; Stutchbury, Bridget J. M.; Silverio, Cassandra; Kramer, Patrick M.; Barrow, John; Newstead, David; Mickle, Nanette; Cousens, Bruce F.; Lee, J. Charlene; Morrison, Danielle M.; Shaheen, Tim; Mammenga, Paul; Applegate, Kelly; Tautin, John

    2012-01-01

    North American birds that feed on flying insects are experiencing steep population declines, particularly long-distance migratory populations in the northern breeding range. We determine, for the first time, the level of migratory connectivity across the range of a songbird using direct tracking of individuals, and test whether declining northern populations have higher exposure to agricultural landscapes at their non-breeding grounds in South America. We used light-level geolocators to track purple martins, Progne subis, originating from North American breeding populations, coast-to-coast (n = 95 individuals). We show that breeding populations of the eastern subspecies, P. s. subis, that are separated by ca. 2000 km, nevertheless have almost completely overlapping non-breeding ranges in Brazil. Most (76%) P. s. subis overwintered in northern Brazil near the Amazon River, not in the agricultural landscape of southern Brazil. Individual non-breeding sites had an average of 91 per cent forest and only 4 per cent agricultural ground cover within a 50 km radius, and birds originating from declining northern breeding populations were not more exposed to agricultural landscapes than stable southern breeding populations. Our results show that differences in wintering location and habitat do not explain recent trends in breeding population declines in this species, and instead northern populations may be constrained in their ability to respond to climate change. PMID:23097508

  19. Airborne forest fire research

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mattingly, G. S.

    1974-01-01

    The research relating to airborne fire fighting systems is reviewed to provide NASA/Langley Research Center with current information on the use of aircraft in forest fire operations, and to identify research requirements for future operations. A literature survey, interview of forest fire service personnel, analysis and synthesis of data from research reports and independent conclusions, and recommendations for future NASA-LRC programs are included.

  20. Forests of Mexico

    SciTech Connect

    Cairns, M.A.; Dirzo, R.; Zadroga, F.

    1995-07-01

    Forest of Mexico as elsewhere provide essential goods and services for both local citizens and the international community. Benefits include climate regulation, biodiversity, and wood and nonwood products for local consumption and economic activity. Deforestation is a matter of great environmental and economic concern. This article assesses rates of deforestation, the present status of forest in Mexico, and the major factors responsible for deforestation in the tropical southeastern region.

  1. Congo Forest Cover

    NASA Video Gallery

    A new analysis of NASA satellite data shows that Africa's Congo rainforest, the second-largest tropical rainforest in the world, has undergone a large-scale decline in greenness over the past decad...

  2. Tree decline and the future of Australian farmland biodiversity.

    PubMed

    Fischer, Joern; Zerger, Andre; Gibbons, Phil; Stott, Jenny; Law, Bradley S

    2010-11-01

    Farmland biodiversity is greatly enhanced by the presence of trees. However, farmland trees are declining worldwide, including in North America, Central America, and parts of southern Europe. We show that tree decline and its likely consequences are particularly severe in Australia's temperate agricultural zone, which is a threatened ecoregion. Using field data on trees, remotely sensed imagery, and a demographic model for trees, we predict that by 2100, the number of trees on an average farm will contract to two-thirds of its present level. Statistical habitat models suggest that this tree decline will negatively affect many currently common animal species, with predicted declines in birds and bats of up to 50% by 2100. Declines were predicted for 24 of 32 bird species modeled and for all of six bat species modeled. Widespread declines in trees, birds, and bats may lead to a reduction in economically important ecosystem services such as shade provision for livestock and pest control. Moreover, many other species for which we have no empirical data also depend on trees, suggesting that fundamental changes in ecosystem functioning are likely. We conclude that Australia's temperate agricultural zone has crossed a threshold and no longer functions as a self-sustaining woodland ecosystem. A regime shift is occurring, with a woodland system deteriorating into a treeless pasture system. Management options exist to reverse tree decline, but new policy settings are required to encourage their widespread adoption. PMID:20974946

  3. Decline and Local Extinction of Caribbean Eusocial Shrimp

    PubMed Central

    Duffy, J. Emmett; Macdonald III, Kenneth S.; Hultgren, Kristin M.; Chak, Tin Chi Solomon; Rubenstein, Dustin R.

    2013-01-01

    The tropical shrimp genus Synalpheus includes the only eusocial marine animals. In much of the Caribbean, eusocial species have dominated the diverse fauna of sponge-dwelling shrimp in coral rubble for at least the past two decades. Here we document a recent, dramatic decline and apparent local extinction of eusocial shrimp species on the Belize Barrier Reef. Our collections from shallow reefs in central Belize in 2012 failed to locate three of the four eusocial species formerly abundant in the area, and showed steep declines in colony size and increases in frequency of queenless colonies prior to their disappearance. Concordant with these declines, several nonsocial, pair-forming Synalpheus species increased in frequency. The decline in eusocial shrimp is explained in part by disappearance of two sponge species on which they specialize. Eusocial shrimp collections from Jamaica in 2012 showed similar patterns of decline in colony size and increased queenlessness compared with prior Jamaican collections. The decline and local extinction of eusocial shrimp happened against a backdrop of changes in coral assemblages during recent decades, and may reflect changes in abundance and quality of dead coral substratum and succession of the diverse cryptic organisms living within it. These changes document potentially worrisome declines in a unique taxon of eusocial marine animals. PMID:23418429

  4. Decline and local extinction of Caribbean eusocial shrimp.

    PubMed

    Duffy, J Emmett; Macdonald, Kenneth S; Hultgren, Kristin M; Chak, Tin Chi Solomon; Rubenstein, Dustin R

    2013-01-01

    The tropical shrimp genus Synalpheus includes the only eusocial marine animals. In much of the Caribbean, eusocial species have dominated the diverse fauna of sponge-dwelling shrimp in coral rubble for at least the past two decades. Here we document a recent, dramatic decline and apparent local extinction of eusocial shrimp species on the Belize Barrier Reef. Our collections from shallow reefs in central Belize in 2012 failed to locate three of the four eusocial species formerly abundant in the area, and showed steep declines in colony size and increases in frequency of queenless colonies prior to their disappearance. Concordant with these declines, several nonsocial, pair-forming Synalpheus species increased in frequency. The decline in eusocial shrimp is explained in part by disappearance of two sponge species on which they specialize. Eusocial shrimp collections from Jamaica in 2012 showed similar patterns of decline in colony size and increased queenlessness compared with prior Jamaican collections. The decline and local extinction of eusocial shrimp happened against a backdrop of changes in coral assemblages during recent decades, and may reflect changes in abundance and quality of dead coral substratum and succession of the diverse cryptic organisms living within it. These changes document potentially worrisome declines in a unique taxon of eusocial marine animals. PMID:23418429

  5. Declines of greater and lesser scaup populations: issues, hypotheses, and research needs

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Austin, J.E.; Afton, A.D.; Anderson, M.G.; Clark, R.G.; Custer, Christine M.; Lawrence, J.; Pollard, J.B.; Ringelman, J.K.

    2000-01-01

    The population estimate for greater (Aythya marila) and lesser (Aythya affinis) scaup (combined) has declined dramatically since the early 1980s to record lows in 1998. The 1998 estimate of 3.47 million scaup is far below the goal of 6.3 million set in the North American Waterfowl Management Plan (NAWMP), causing concern among biologists and hunters. We summarize issues of concern, hypotheses for factors contributing to the population decline, and research and management needs recommended by participants of the Scaup Workshop, held in September 1999. We believe that contaminants, lower female survival, and reduced recruitment due to changes in food resources or breeding-ground habitats are primary factors contributing to the decline. These factors are not mutually exclusive but likely interact across seasons. Workshop participants identified seven action items. We need to further delineate where declines in breeding populations have occurred, with a primary focus on the western Canadian boreal forest, where declines appear to be most pronounced. Productivity in various areas and habitats throughout the breeding range needs to be assessed by conducting retrospective analyses of existing data and by intensive field studies at broad and local scales. Annual and seasonal survival rates need to be determined in order to assess the role of harvest or natural mortality. Effects of contaminants on reproduction, female body condition, and behavior must be investigated. Use, distribution, and role of food resources relative to body condition and reproduction need to be examined to better understand seasonal dynamics of nutrient reserves and the role in reproductive success. Affiliations among breeding, migration, and wintering areas must be assessed in order to understand differential exposure to harvest or contaminants, and differential reproductive success and recruitment. Biologists and agencies need to gather and improve information needed to manage greater and lesser

  6. A climate change-induced threat to the ecological resilience of a subtropical monsoon evergreen broad-leaved forest in Southern China.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Guoyi; Peng, Changhui; Li, Yuelin; Liu, Shizhong; Zhang, Qianmei; Tang, Xuli; Liu, Juxiu; Yan, Junhua; Zhang, Deqiang; Chu, Guowei

    2013-04-01

    Recent studies have suggested that tropical forests may not be resilient against climate change in the long term, primarily owing to predicted reductions in rainfall and forest productivity, increased tree mortality, and declining forest biomass carbon sinks. These changes will be caused by drought-induced water stress and ecosystem disturbances. Several recent studies have reported that climate change has increased tree mortality in temperate and boreal forests, or both mortality and recruitment rates in tropical forests. However, no study has yet examined these changes in the subtropical forests that account for the majority of China's forested land. In this study, we describe how the monsoon evergreen broad-leaved forest has responded to global warming and drought stress using 32 years of data from forest observation plots. Due to an imbalance in mortality and recruitment, and changes in diameter growth rates between larger and smaller trees and among different functional groups, the average DBH of trees and forest biomass have decreased. Sap flow measurements also showed that larger trees were more stressed than smaller trees by the warming and drying environment. As a result, the monsoon evergreen broad-leaved forest community is undergoing a transition from a forest dominated by a cohort of fewer and larger individuals to a forest dominated by a cohort of more and smaller individuals, with a different species composition, suggesting that subtropical forests are threatened by their lack of resilience against long-term climate change. PMID:23504896

  7. Novel survey method finds dramatic decline of wild cotton-top tamarin population

    PubMed Central

    Savage, Anne; Thomas, Len; Leighty, Katherine A.; Soto, Luis H.; Medina, Felix S.

    2010-01-01

    The cotton-top tamarin (Saguinus oedipus) is a critically endangered primate, endemic to the tropical forests of Colombia. Population monitoring is essential to evaluate the success of conservation efforts, yet standard survey methods are ineffective because animals flee silently before they are seen. We developed a novel technique that combines the use of playbacks of territorial vocalizations with traditional transect surveys. We used remote sensing to identify potential habitat within the species' historic range, and visited the 27% that we could survey safely. Of this, only 99 km2 was extant forest, containing an estimated 2,045 animals (95% confidence interval 1,587–2,634). Assuming comparable densities in non-surveyed areas, approximately 7,394 wild cotton-top tamarins remain in Colombia. With 20–30,000 animals exported to the United States in the late 1960s, this must represent a precipitous decline. Habitat destruction and capture for the illegal pet trade are ongoing. Urgent conservation measures are required to prevent extinction in the wild. PMID:20975684

  8. Population Declines of Mountain Coqui (Eleutherodactylus portoricensis) in the Cordillera Central of Puerto Rico

    PubMed Central

    Barker, Brittany S.; Ríos-Franceschi, Alejandro

    2014-01-01

    The Mountain Coqui (Eleutherodactylus portoricensis) is a frog endemic to montane rainforests in the Cordillera Central and Luquillo Mountains of Puerto Rico. Classified as endangered by the IUCN Red List and as vulnerable by the Department of Natural and Environmental Resources of Puerto Rico, this species has undergone considerable decline in the Luquillo Mountains. To evaluate the population status of E. portoricensis across its entire range, we conducted ~87 hours of surveys at 18 historical localities and 25 additional localities that we considered suitable for this species. We generated occupancy models to estimate the probability of occurrence at surveyed sites and to identify geographic and climatic factors affecting site occupancy. We also constructed a suitability map to visualize population status in relation to the presence of land cover at elevations where the species has been documented, and determined the dates when populations were last detected at historical localities. Eleutherodactylus portoricensis was detected at 14 of 43 localities, including 10 of 18 historical localities, but it was not detected at any localities west of Aibonito (western Cordillera Central). Occupancy models estimated the probability of occurrence for localities in the western Cordillera Central as zero. Site occupancy was positively associated with montane cloud forest, and negatively associated with the western Cordillera Central, maximum temperature, and precipitation seasonality. The suitability map suggests that declines have occurred despite the presence of suitable habitat. We suggest upgrading the extinction risk of E. portoricensis and potentially developing a captive breeding program for this species. PMID:25685250

  9. Forest edges have high conservation value for bird communities in mosaic landscapes.

    PubMed

    Terraube, Julien; Archaux, Frédéric; Deconchat, Marc; van Halder, Inge; Jactel, Hervé; Barbaro, Luc

    2016-08-01

    A major conservation challenge in mosaic landscapes is to understand how trait-specific responses to habitat edges affect bird communities, including potential cascading effects on bird functions providing ecosystem services to forests, such as pest control. Here, we examined how bird species richness, abundance and community composition varied from interior forest habitats and their edges into adjacent open habitats, within a multi-regional sampling scheme. We further analyzed variations in Conservation Value Index (CVI), Community Specialization Index (CSI) and functional traits across the forest-edge-open habitat gradient. Bird species richness, total abundance and CVI were significantly higher at forest edges while CSI peaked at interior open habitats, i.e., furthest from forest edge. In addition, there were important variations in trait- and species-specific responses to forest edges among bird communities. Positive responses to forest edges were found for several forest bird species with unfavorable conservation status. These species were in general insectivores, understorey gleaners, cavity nesters and long-distance migrants, all traits that displayed higher abundance at forest edges than in forest interiors or adjacent open habitats. Furthermore, consistently with predictions, negative edge effects were recorded in some forest specialist birds and in most open-habitat birds, showing increasing densities from edges to interior habitats. We thus suggest that increasing landscape-scale habitat complexity would be beneficial to declining species living in mosaic landscapes combining small woodlands and open habitats. Edge effects between forests and adjacent open habitats may also favor bird functional guilds providing valuable ecosystem services to forests in longstanding fragmented landscapes. PMID:27551375

  10. Effects of productivity on biodiversity in forest ecosystems across the United States and China.

    PubMed

    Liang, Jingjing; Watson, James V; Zhou, Mo; Lei, Xiangdong

    2016-04-01

    In the global campaign against biodiversity loss in forest ecosystems, land managers need to know the status of forest biodiversity, but practical guidelines for conserving biodiversity in forest management are lacking. A major obstacle is the incomplete understanding of the relationship between site primary productivity and plant diversity, due to insufficient ecosystem-wide data, especially for taxonomically and structurally diverse forest ecosystems. We investigated the effects of site productivity (the site's inherent capacity to grow timber) on tree species richness across 19 types of forest ecosystems in North America and China through 3 ground-sourced forest inventory data sets (U.S. Forest Inventory and Analysis, Cooperative Alaska Forest Inventory, and Chinese Forest Management Planning Inventory). All forest types conformed to a consistent and highly significant (P < 0.001) hump-shaped unimodal relationship, of which the generalized coefficients of determination averaged 20.5% over all the forest types. That is, tree species richness first increased as productivity increased at a progressively slower rate, and, after reaching a maximum, richness started to decline. Our consistent findings suggest that forests of high productivity would sustain few species because they consist mostly of flat homogeneous areas lacking an environmental gradient along which a diversity of species with different habitats can coexist. The consistency of the productivity-biodiversity relationship among the 3 data sets we examined makes it possible to quantify the expected tree species richness that a forest stand is capable of sustaining, and a comparison between the actual species richness and the sustainable values can be useful in prioritizing conservation efforts. PMID:26954431

  11. Forest canopy interactions with nucleation mode particles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pryor, S. C.; Hornsby, K. E.; Novick, K. A.

    2014-07-01

    Forests play a key role in removal of particles from the atmosphere but may also significantly contribute to formation and growth of ultrafine particles. Ultrafine particle size distributions through a deciduous forest canopy indicate substantial capture of nucleation mode particles by the foliage. Concentrations decline with depth into the canopy, such that nucleation mode number concentrations at the bottom of the canopy are an average of 16% lower than those at the top. However, growth rates of nucleation mode particles (diameters 6-30 nm) are invariant with height within the canopy, which implies that the semi-volatile gases contributing to their growth are comparatively well-mixed through the canopy. Growth rates of nucleation mode particles during a meteorological drought year (2012) were substantially lower than during a meteorologically normal year with high soil water potential (2013). This may reflect suppression of actual BVOC emissions by drought and thus reduced production of condensable products (and thus particle growth) during the drought-affected vegetation season. This hypothesis is supported by evidence that growth rates during the normal year exhibit a positive correlation with emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) modeled based on observed forest composition, leaf area index, temperature and PAR, but particle growth rates during the drought-affected vegetation season are not correlated with modeled BVOC emissions. These data thus provide direct evidence for the importance of canopy capture in atmospheric particle budgets and indirect evidence that drought-stress in forests may reduce BVOC emissions and limit growth of nucleation mode particles to climate-relevant sizes.

  12. Ecosystem services capacity across heterogeneous forest types: understanding the interactions and suggesting pathways for sustaining multiple ecosystem services.

    PubMed

    Alamgir, Mohammed; Turton, Stephen M; Macgregor, Colin J; Pert, Petina L

    2016-10-01

    As ecosystem services supply from tropical forests is declining due to deforestation and forest degradation, much effort is essential to sustain ecosystem services supply from tropical forested landscapes, because tropical forests provide the largest flow of multiple ecosystem services among the terrestrial ecosystems. In order to sustain multiple ecosystem services, understanding ecosystem services capacity across heterogeneous forest types and identifying certain ecosystem services that could be managed to leverage positive effects across the wider bundle of ecosystem services are required. We sampled three forest types, tropical rainforests, sclerophyll forests, and rehabilitated plantation forests, over an area of 32,000m(2) from Wet Tropics bioregion, Australia, aiming to compare supply and evaluate interactions and patterns of eight ecosystem services (global climate regulation, air quality regulation, erosion regulation, nutrient regulation, cyclone protection, habitat provision, energy provision, and timber provision). On average, multiple ecosystem services were highest in the rainforests, lowest in sclerophyll forests, and intermediate in rehabilitated plantation forests. However, a wide variation was apparent among the plots across the three forest types. Global climate regulation service had a synergistic impact on the supply of multiple ecosystem services, while nutrient regulation service was found to have a trade-off impact. Considering multiple ecosystem services, most of the rehabilitated plantation forest plots shared the same ordination space with rainforest plots in the ordination analysis, indicating that rehabilitated plantation forests may supply certain ecosystem services nearly equivalent to rainforests. Two synergy groups and one trade-off group were identified. Apart from conserving rainforests and sclerophyll forests, our findings suggest two additional integrated pathways to sustain the supply of multiple ecosystem services from a

  13. Methylprednisolone in patients with membranous nephropathy and declining renal function.

    PubMed

    Short, C D; Solomon, L R; Gokal, R; Mallick, N P

    1987-11-01

    Fifteen consecutive patients aged 24 to 70 years, with membranous nephropathy and a progressive decline in renal function, were treated with methylprednisolone, 1 g intravenously daily for five days, followed immediately by a tapering dose of oral prednisolone. Plasma creatinine levels fell by a mean of 46 per cent (range 21-65). In 10 patients the beneficial effect was sustained, but in three it had reversed by six months. In the other two patients the progressive decline of renal function was not influenced. These observations suggest that many patients with membranous nephropathy and declining renal function could benefit from intervention with high dose steroids. PMID:3455548

  14. Occupancy dynamics in a tropical bird community: unexpectedly high forest use by birds classified as non-forest species

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ruiz-Gutierrez, Viviana; Zipkin, Elise F.; Dhondt, Andre A.

    2010-01-01

    1. Worldwide loss of biodiversity necessitates a clear understanding of the factors driving population declines as well as informed predictions about which species and populations are at greatest risk. The biggest threat to the long-term persistence of populations is the reduction and changes in configuration of their natural habitat. 2. Inconsistencies have been noted in the responses of populations to the combined effects of habitat loss and fragmentation. These have been widely attributed to the effects of the matrix habitats in which remnant focal habitats are typically embedded. 3. We quantified the potential effects of the inter-patch matrix by estimating occupancy and colonization of forest and surrounding non-forest matrix (NF). We estimated species-specific parameters using a dynamic, multi-species hierarchical model on a bird community in southwestern Costa Rica. 4. Overall, we found higher probabilities of occupancy and colonization of forest relative to the NF across bird species, including those previously categorized as open habitat generalists not needing forest to persist. Forest dependency was a poor predictor of occupancy dynamics in our study region, largely predicting occupancy and colonization of only non-forest habitats. 5. Our results indicate that the protection of remnant forest habitats is key for the long-term persistence of all members of the bird community in this fragmented landscape, including species typically associated with open, non-forest habitats. 6.Synthesis and applications. We identified 39 bird species of conservation concern defined by having high estimates of forest occupancy, and low estimates of occupancy and colonization of non-forest. These species survive in forest but are unlikely to venture out into open, non-forested habitats, therefore, they are vulnerable to the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation. Our hierarchical community-level model can be used to estimate species-specific occupancy dynamics for focal

  15. Rapid increases and time-lagged declines in amphibian occupancy after wildfire.

    PubMed

    Hossack, Blake R; Lowe, Winsor H; Corn, Paul Stephen

    2013-02-01

    Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of drought and wildfire. Aquatic and moisture-sensitive species, such as amphibians, may be particularly vulnerable to these modified disturbance regimes because large wildfires often occur during extended droughts and thus may compound environmental threats. However, understanding of the effects of wildfires on amphibians in forests with long fire-return intervals is limited. Numerous stand-replacing wildfires have occurred since 1988 in Glacier National Park (Montana, U.S.A.), where we have conducted long-term monitoring of amphibians. We measured responses of 3 amphibian species to fires of different sizes, severity, and age in a small geographic area with uniform management. We used data from wetlands associated with 6 wildfires that burned between 1988 and 2003 to evaluate whether burn extent and severity and interactions between wildfire and wetland isolation affected the distribution of breeding populations. We measured responses with models that accounted for imperfect detection to estimate occupancy during prefire (0-4 years) and different postfire recovery periods. For the long-toed salamander (Ambystoma macrodactylum) and Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris), occupancy was not affected for 6 years after wildfire. But 7-21 years after wildfire, occupancy for both species decreased ≥ 25% in areas where >50% of the forest within 500 m of wetlands burned. In contrast, occupancy of the boreal toad (Anaxyrus boreas) tripled in the 3 years after low-elevation forests burned. This increase in occupancy was followed by a gradual decline. Our results show that accounting for magnitude of change and time lags is critical to understanding population dynamics of amphibians after large disturbances. Our results also inform understanding of the potential threat of increases in wildfire frequency or severity to amphibians in the region. PMID:22978248

  16. Can Individual and Social Patterns of Resource Use Buffer Animal Populations against Resource Decline?

    PubMed Central

    Banks, Sam C.; Lindenmayer, David B.; Wood, Jeff T.; McBurney, Lachlan; Blair, David; Blyton, Michaela D. J.

    2013-01-01

    Species in many ecosystems are facing declines of key resources. If we are to understand and predict the effects of resource loss on natural populations, we need to understand whether and how the way animals use resources changes under resource decline. We investigated how the abundance of arboreal marsupials varies in response to a critical resource, hollow-bearing trees. Principally, we asked what mechanisms mediate the relationship between resources and abundance? Do animals use a greater or smaller proportion of the remaining resource, and is there a change in cooperative resource use (den sharing), as the availability of hollow trees declines? Analyses of data from 160 sites surveyed from 1997 to 2007 showed that hollow tree availability was positively associated with abundance of the mountain brushtail possum, the agile antechinus and the greater glider. The abundance of Leadbeater’s possum was primarily influenced by forest age. Notably, the relationship between abundance and hollow tree availability was significantly less than 1∶1 for all species. This was due primarily to a significant increase by all species in the proportional use of hollow-bearing trees where the abundance of this resource was low. The resource-sharing response was weaker and inconsistent among species. Two species, the mountain brushtail possum and the agile antechinus, showed significant but contrasting relationships between the number of animals per occupied tree and hollow tree abundance. The discrepancies between the species can be explained partly by differences in several aspects of the species’ biology, including body size, types of hollows used and social behaviour as it relates to hollow use. Our results show that individual and social aspects of resource use are not always static in response to resource availability and support the need to account for dynamic resource use patterns in predictive models of animal distribution and abundance. PMID:23320100

  17. Can individual and social patterns of resource use buffer animal populations against resource decline?

    PubMed

    Banks, Sam C; Lindenmayer, David B; Wood, Jeff T; McBurney, Lachlan; Blair, David; Blyton, Michaela D J

    2013-01-01

    Species in many ecosystems are facing declines of key resources. If we are to understand and predict the effects of resource loss on natural populations, we need to understand whether and how the way animals use resources changes under resource decline. We investigated how the abundance of arboreal marsupials varies in response to a critical resource, hollow-bearing trees. Principally, we asked what mechanisms mediate the relationship between resources and abundance? Do animals use a greater or smaller proportion of the remaining resource, and is there a change in cooperative resource use (den sharing), as the availability of hollow trees declines? Analyses of data from 160 sites surveyed from 1997 to 2007 showed that hollow tree availability was positively associated with abundance of the mountain brushtail possum, the agile antechinus and the greater glider. The abundance of Leadbeater's possum was primarily influenced by forest age. Notably, the relationship between abundance and hollow tree availability was significantly less than 1:1 for all species. This was due primarily to a significant increase by all species in the proportional use of hollow-bearing trees where the abundance of this resource was low. The resource-sharing response was weaker and inconsistent among species. Two species, the mountain brushtail possum and the agile antechinus, showed significant but contrasting relationships between the number of animals per occupied tree and hollow tree abundance. The discrepancies between the species can be explained partly by differences in several aspects of the species' biology, including body size, types of hollows used and social behaviour as it relates to hollow use. Our results show that individual and social aspects of resource use are not always static in response to resource availability and support the need to account for dynamic resource use patterns in predictive models of animal distribution and abundance. PMID:23320100

  18. Carbon emissions and sequestration in forests: Case studies from seven developing countries. Volume 4: Mexico: Draft

    SciTech Connect

    Makundi, W.; Sathaye, J.; Cerutti, O.M.; Ordonez, M.J.; Minjarez, R.D.

    1992-08-01

    Estimates of carbon emissions from deforestation in Mexico are derived for the year 1985 and for two contrasting scenarios in 2025. Carbon emissions are calculated through an in-depth review of the existing information on forest cover deforestation mtes and area affected by forest fires as well as on forests` carbon-related biological characteristics. The analysis covers both tropical -- evergreen and deciduous -- and temperate -- coniferous and broadleaf -- closed forests. Emissions from the forest sector are also compared to those from energy and industry. Different policy options for promoting the sustainable management of forest resources in the country are discussed. The analysis indicates that approximately 804,000 hectares per year of closed forests suffered from major perturbations in the mid 1980`s in Mexico, leading to an annual deforestation mte of 668,000 hectares. Seventy five percent of total deforestation is concentrated in tropical forests. The resulting annual carbon balance is estimated in 53.4 million tons per year, and the net committed emissions in 45.5 million tons or 41% and 38%, respectively, of the country`s total for 1985--87. The annual carbon balance from the forest sector in 2025 is expected to decline to 16.5 million tons in the low emissions scenario and to 22.9 million tons in the high emissions scenario. Because of the large uncertainties in some of the primary sources of information, the stated figures should be taken as preliminary estimates.

  19. Carbon emissions and sequestration in forests: Case studies from seven developing countries

    SciTech Connect

    Makundi, W.; Sathaye, J. ); Cerutti, O.M.; Ordonez, M.J.; Minjarez, R.D. Centro de Ecologia)

    1992-08-01

    Estimates of carbon emissions from deforestation in Mexico are derived for the year 1985 and for two contrasting scenarios in 2025. Carbon emissions are calculated through an in-depth review of the existing information on forest cover deforestation mtes and area affected by forest fires as well as on forests' carbon-related biological characteristics. The analysis covers both tropical -- evergreen and deciduous -- and temperate -- coniferous and broadleaf -- closed forests. Emissions from the forest sector are also compared to those from energy and industry. Different policy options for promoting the sustainable management of forest resources in the country are discussed. The analysis indicates that approximately 804,000 hectares per year of closed forests suffered from major perturbations in the mid 1980's in Mexico, leading to an annual deforestation mte of 668,000 hectares. Seventy five percent of total deforestation is concentrated in tropical forests. The resulting annual carbon balance is estimated in 53.4 million tons per year, and the net committed emissions in 45.5 million tons or 41% and 38%, respectively, of the country's total for 1985--87. The annual carbon balance from the forest sector in 2025 is expected to decline to 16.5 million tons in the low emissions scenario and to 22.9 million tons in the high emissions scenario. Because of the large uncertainties in some of the primary sources of information, the stated figures should be taken as preliminary estimates.

  20. Temperature as a potent driver of regional forest drought stress and tree mortality

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williams, A. Park; Macalady, Alison K.; Woodhouse, Connie A.; Allen, Craig D.; Griffin, Daniel; Meko, David M.

    2012-01-01

    As the climate changes, drought may reduce tree productivity and survival across many forest ecosystems; however, the relative influence of specific climate parameters on forest decline is poorly understood. We derive a forest drought-stress index (FDSI) for the southwestern United States using a comprehensive tree-ring data set representing AD 1000–2007. The FDSI is approximately equally influenced by the warm-season vapour-pressure deficit (largely controlled by temperature) and cold-season precipitation, together explaining 82% of the FDSI variability. Correspondence between the FDSI and measures of forest productivity, mortality, bark-beetle outbreak and wildfire validate the FDSI as a holistic forest-vigour indicator. If the vapour-pressure deficit continues increasing as projected by climate models, the mean forest drought-stress by the 2050s will exceed that of the most severe droughts in the past 1,000 years. Collectively, the results foreshadow twenty-first-century changes in forest structures and compositions, with transition of forests in the southwestern United States, and perhaps water-limited forests globally, towards distributions unfamiliar to modern civilization.

  1. Temperature as a potent driver of regional forest drought stress and tree mortality

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williams, A. Park; Allen, Craig D.; Macalady, Alison K.; Griffin, Daniel; Woodhouse, Connie A.; Meko, David M.; Swetnam, Thomas W.; Rauscher, Sara A.; Seager, Richard; Grissino-Mayer, Henri D.; Dean, Jeffrey S.; Cook, Edward R.; Gangodagamage, Chandana; Cai, Michael; McDowell, Nate G.

    2013-01-01

    As the climate changes, drought may reduce tree productivity and survival across many forest ecosystems; however, the relative influence of specific climate parameters on forest decline is poorly understood. We derive a forest drought-stress index (FDSI) for the southwestern United States using a comprehensive tree-ring data set representing AD 1000-2007. The FDSI is approximately equally influenced by the warm-season vapour-pressure deficit (largely controlled by temperature) and cold-season precipitation, together explaining 82% of the FDSI variability. Correspondence between the FDSI and measures of forest productivity, mortality, bark-beetle outbreak and wildfire validate the FDSI as a holistic forest-vigour indicator. If the vapour-pressure deficit continues increasing as projected by climate models, the mean forest drought-stress by the 2050s will exceed that of the most severe droughts in the past 1,000 years. Collectively, the results foreshadow twenty-first-century changes in forest structures and compositions, with transition of forests in the southwestern United States, and perhaps water-limited forests globally, towards distributions unfamiliar to modern civilization.

  2. The development of anti-litter behavior in a forest campground1

    PubMed Central

    Clark, Roger N.; Burgess, Robert L.; Hendee, John C.

    1972-01-01

    This study evaluates the effectiveness of an incentive procedure designed to induce litter collection in a large forest campground. Children in the campground were offered their choice of a variety of reinforcers for picking up and properly disposing of litter. The procedure resulted in a sharp decline in four types of litter planted in the campground. ImagesFig. 1 PMID:16795313

  3. Forest Field Trips among High School Science Teachers in the Southern Piedmont

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McCabe, Shannon M.; Munsell, John F.; Seiler, John R.

    2014-01-01

    Students benefit in many ways by taking field trips to forests. Improved academic performance, increased participation in outdoor recreation, and a better grasp of natural resources management are some of the advantages. However, trips are not easy for teachers to organize and lead. Declining budgets, on-campus schedules, and standards of learning…

  4. Proximity to forest edge does not affect crop production despite pollen limitation

    PubMed Central

    Chacoff, Natacha P; Aizen, Marcelo A; Aschero, Valeria

    2008-01-01

    A decline in pollination function has been linked to agriculture expansion and intensification. In northwest Argentina, pollinator visits to grapefruit, a self-compatible but pollinator-dependent crop, decline by approximately 50% at 1 km from forest edges. We evaluated whether this decrease in visitation also reduces the pollination service in this crop. We analysed the quantity and quality of pollen deposited on stigmas, and associated limitation of fruit production at increasing distances (edge: 10, 100, 500 and 1000 m) from the remnants of Yungas forest. We also examined the quantitative and qualitative efficiency of honeybees as pollen vectors. Pollen receipt and pollen tubes in styles decreased with increasing distance from forest edge; however, this decline did not affect fruit production. Supplementation of natural pollen with self- and cross-pollen revealed that both pollen quantity and quality limited fruit production. Despite pollen limitation, honeybees cannot raise fruit production because they often do not deposit sufficient high-quality pollen per visit to elicit fruit development. However, declines in visitation frequency well below seven visits during a flower's lifespan could decrease production beyond current yields. In this context, the preservation of forest remnants, which act as pollinator sources, could contribute to resilience in crop production. Like wild plants, pollen limitation of the yield among animal-pollinated crops may be common and indicative not only of pollinator scarcity, but also of poor pollination quality, whereby pollinator efficiency, rather than just abundance, can play a broader role than previously appreciated. PMID:18230596

  5. The herpetofauna of the cloud forests of Honduras

    PubMed Central

    2003-01-01

    the next largest segment being restricted in distribution to Nuclear Middle America, but not endemic to Honduras. Cloud forest species are distributed among eight ecophysiographic areas, with the largest number being found in the Northwestern Highlands, followed by the North-Central Highlands and the Southwestern Highlands. The greatest significance of the Honduran herpetofauna lies in its 125 species that are either Honduran endemics or otherwise Nuclear Middle American-restricted species, of which 83 are distributed in the country's cloud forests. This segment of the herpetofauna is seriously endangered as a consequence of exponentially increasing habitat destruction resulting from deforestation, even given the existence of several biotic reserves established in cloud forest. Other, less clearly evident environmental factors also appear to be implicated. As a consequence, slightly over half of these 83 species (50.6%) have populations that are in decline or that have disappeared from Honduran cloud forests. These species possess biological, conservational, and economic significance, all of which appear in danger of being lost. PMID:15029253

  6. Agriculture modifies the seasonal decline of breeding success in a tropical wild bird population

    PubMed Central

    Cartwright, Samantha J; Nicoll, Malcolm A C; Jones, Carl G; Tatayah, Vikash; Norris, Ken

    2014-01-01

    Habitat conversion for agriculture is a major driver of biodiversity loss, but our understanding of the demographic processes involved remains poor. We typically investigate the impacts of agriculture in isolation even though populations are likely to experience multiple, concurrent changes in the environment (e.g. land and climate change). Drivers of environmental change may interact to affect demography, but the mechanisms have yet to be explored fully in wild populations. Here, we investigate the mechanisms linking agricultural land use with breeding success using long-term data for the formerly Critically Endangered Mauritius kestrel Falco punctatus, a tropical forest specialist that also occupies agricultural habitats. We specifically focused on the relationship between breeding success, agriculture and the timing of breeding because the latter is sensitive to changes in climatic conditions (spring rainfall) and enables us to explore the interactive effects of different (land and climate) drivers of environmental change. Breeding success, measured as egg survival to fledging, declines seasonally in this population, but we found that the rate of this decline became increasingly rapid as the area of agriculture around a nest site increased. If the relationship between breeding success and agriculture was used in isolation to estimate the demographic impact of agriculture, it would significantly under-estimate breeding success in dry (early) springs and over-estimate breeding success in wet (late) springs. Analysis of prey delivered to nests suggests that the relationship between breeding success and agriculture might be due, in part, to spatial variation in the availability of native, arboreal geckos. Synthesis and applications. Agriculture modifies the seasonal decline in breeding success in this population. As springs are becoming wetter in our study area and since the kestrels breed later in wetter springs, the impact of agriculture on breeding success will

  7. Paid Family Leave Tied to Decline in Child Abuse

    MedlinePlus

    ... nih.gov/medlineplus/news/fullstory_157492.html Paid Family Leave Tied to Decline in Child Abuse California ... 2016 FRIDAY, Feb. 26, 2016 (HealthDay News) -- Paid family leave might lead to reduced risk of abuse- ...

  8. Neuropsychological tests for predicting cognitive decline in older adults

    PubMed Central

    Baerresen, Kimberly M; Miller, Karen J; Hanson, Eric R; Miller, Justin S; Dye, Richelin V; Hartman, Richard E; Vermeersch, David; Small, Gary W

    2015-01-01

    Summary Aim To determine neuropsychological tests likely to predict cognitive decline. Methods A sample of nonconverters (n = 106) was compared with those who declined in cognitive status (n = 24). Significant univariate logistic regression prediction models were used to create multivariate logistic regression models to predict decline based on initial neuropsychological testing. Results Rey–Osterrieth Complex Figure Test (RCFT) Retention predicted conversion to mild cognitive impairment (MCI) while baseline Buschke Delay predicted conversion to Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Due to group sample size differences, additional analyses were conducted using a subsample of demographically matched nonconverters. Analyses indicated RCFT Retention predicted conversion to MCI and AD, and Buschke Delay predicted conversion to AD. Conclusion Results suggest RCFT Retention and Buschke Delay may be useful in predicting cognitive decline. PMID:26107318

  9. A Decline in Numeracy Skills among Bioscience Undergraduates.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tariq, Vicki N.

    2002-01-01

    Provides evidence of a decline in basic numeracy skills among first-year bioscience undergraduate students. Tests conceptualized numeracy skills which form a component of an introductory microbiology module. (Contains 23 references.) (Author/YDS)

  10. The Box Turtle: Room with a View on Species Decline.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Belzer, Bill; Steisslinger, Mary Beth

    1999-01-01

    Surveys salient aspects of eastern box-turtle natural history. Explores the societal and ecological factors that have contributed to the decline of the box-turtle population. Contains 18 references. (WRM)

  11. Tuberculosis Decline in U.S. Has Stalled, CDC Reports

    MedlinePlus

    ... html Tuberculosis Decline in U.S. Has Stalled, CDC Reports Agency reaffirms its commitment to eliminating the lung ... steady from 2013 to 2015, a federal government report shows. "Resuming progress toward TB elimination in the ...

  12. Falls May Be Sign of Future Alzheimer's Disease, Cognitive Decline

    MedlinePlus

    ... About ADEAR Falls may be sign of future Alzheimer’s disease, cognitive decline June 28, 2013 Cognitively normal older ... with evidence of early brain changes typical of Alzheimer’s disease fell more often than did their peers without ...

  13. ALIEN SPECIES: THEIR ROLE IN AMPHIBIAN POPULATION DECLINES AND RESTORATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    Alien species (also referred to as exotic, invasive, introduced, or normative species) have been implicated as causal agents in population declines of many amphibian species. Herein, we evaluate the relative contributions of alien species and other factors in adversely affecting ...

  14. Chesapeake Bay: an unprecedented decline in submerged aquatic vegetation

    SciTech Connect

    Orth, R.J.; Moore, K.A.

    1983-10-07

    Data on the distribution and abundance of submerged aquatic vegetation in Chesapeake Bay indicate a significant reduction in all species in all sections of the bay during the last 15 to 20 years. This decline is unprecedented in the bay's recent history. The reduction in one major species, Zostera marina, may be greater than the decline that occurred during the pandemic demise of the 1930's. 19 references, 2 figures.

  15. The historical decline of fertility in Eastern Europe.

    PubMed

    Leasure, J W

    1992-01-01

    Quantitative data from the Princeton European Fertility Project were used to explain the determinants of change in attitudes which lead to use of birth control within marriage and fertility decline in terms of the growth of autonomy over one's political, personal, religious, economic, and reproductive life. The following countries, which are arranged by their chronological order of marital fertility decline, were used in the primarily quantitative analysis: Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Greece, Yugoslavia, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, and Albania. Prior research had identified an association between a decline in the birth rate and the presence of revolutions nationalist independence movements, or democratic reform movements. The connection is that once control over one's political and economic destiny is made, there is an extension into one's reproductive behavior. Further refinement has occurred. Autonomy is grounded in reason, the natural rights of individuals, and independence of thought. Reflective of this autonomous spirit were affiliations with Congregational, Presbyterian, Quaker, Unitarian, and Universalist religions. The present analysis is historical and describes the events surrounding the decline in marital fertility. These events might have preceded, been concurrent with, or followed the decline, but the thesis remains that the growth in autonomy contributes to political changes and fertility decline. The primary measure of fertility is Ig developed by Coale, and sustained decline maps of Coale and Watkins. Crude birth rate and total fertility rate were also used. the provincial analysis was impeded by lack of long time series for some countries and boundary changes. The hypothesis is generally supported, except in the case of Yugoslavia which varies too much. Support for the thesis was stronger in some countries than in others. Sustained decline occurred by each country in different periods, e.g., in Hungary it began between 1850-60 while in Albania it began

  16. Decline in bloater fecundity in Southern Lake Michigan after decline of Diporeia

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bunnell, D.B.; David, S.R.; Madenjian, C.P.

    2009-01-01

    Population fecundity can vary through time, sometimes owing to changes in adult condition. Consideration of these fecundity changes can improve understanding of recruitment variation. Herein, we estimated fecundity of Lake Michigan bloater Coregonus hoyi during December 2005 and February 2006. Bloater recruitment has been highly variable from 1962 to present, and consistently poor since 1992. We compared our fecundity vs. weight regression to a previously published regression that used fish sampled in October 1969. We wanted to develop a new regression for two reasons. First, it should be more accurate because it uses fish collected closer to spawning, thus minimizing the potential for atresia (egg reabsorption) which could bias fecundity high. Second, we hypothesized that fecundity would be lower in 2006 because adult condition was 41% lower in 2006 compared to 1969, likely owing to the decline of Diporeia spp, a primary prey for bloater. Although the slope of the fecundity versus weight regression was similar between the years, fecundity was 24% lower in 2006 than in 1969 for bloater weighing between 70 and 240??g. Whether this was the result of the difference in sampling time prior to spawning or of differences in condition is unknown. We also found no relationship between maternal size and mature oocyte size. Incorporating our updated fecundity regression into a stock/recruit model failed to improve the model fit, indicating that the low bloater recruitment that has been observed since the early 1990s is not solely the result of reduced fecundity. ?? 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Tipping point of a conifer forest ecosystem under severe drought

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Kaicheng; Yi, Chuixiang; Wu, Donghai; Zhou, Tao; Zhao, Xiang; Blanford, William J.; Wei, Suhua; Wu, Hao; Ling, Du; Li, Zheng

    2015-02-01

    Drought-induced tree mortality has recently received considerable attention. Questions have arisen over the necessary intensity and duration thresholds of droughts that are sufficient to trigger rapid forest declines. The values of such tipping points leading to forest declines due to drought are presently unknown. In this study, we have evaluated the potential relationship between the level of tree growth and concurrent drought conditions with data of the tree growth-related ring width index (RWI) of the two dominant conifer species (Pinus edulis and Pinus ponderosa) in the Southwestern United States (SWUS) and the meteorological drought-related standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). In this effort, we determined the binned averages of RWI and the 11 month SPEI within the month of July within each bin of 30 of RWI in the range of 0-3000. We found a significant correlation between the binned averages of RWI and SPEI at the regional-scale under dryer conditions. The tipping point of forest declines to drought is predicted by the regression model as SPEItp = -1.64 and RWItp = 0, that is, persistence of the water deficit (11 month) with intensity of -1.64 leading to negligible growth for the conifer species. When climate conditions are wetter, the correlation between the binned averages of RWI and SPEI is weaker which we believe is most likely due to soil water and atmospheric moisture levels no longer being the dominant factor limiting tree growth. We also illustrate a potential application of the derived tipping point (SPEItp = -1.64) through an examination of the 2002 extreme drought event in the SWUS conifer forest regions. Distinguished differences in remote-sensing based NDVI anomalies were found between the two regions partitioned by the derived tipping point.

  18. Forest nutrient and carbon pools at Walker Branch Watershed: Changes during a 21-year period

    SciTech Connect

    Trettin, C.C.; Johnson, D.W.; Todd, D.E. Jr.

    1999-10-01

    A 21-yr perspective on changes in nutrient and C pools on undisturbed upland forest sites is provided. Plots originally representing four cover types have been sampled three times. On each plot, forest biomass, forest floor, and soil, to a depth of 60 cm, were measured, sampled, and analyzed for Ca, Mg, C, N, and P. Exchangeable soil Ca and Mg have declined in most soils. Despite the low exchangeable Ca, cumulative sequestration in the biomass has exceeded the soil pool, suggesting that soil supplies below 60 cm are satisfying the biomass demand. Extractable soil P also declined, with means ranging from 4.2 to 18.2 kg ha{sup {minus}1}, as a result of reductions in the mineral soil and Oi horizon. The loss of extractable soil P exceeded biomass sequestration in all but one plot, suggesting abiotic soil processes as the removal mechanism. Soil C and N were either stable, although highly variable, or declined, which was unexpected in these undisturbed sites. The net C balance of these sites was controlled by aboveground sequestration, which offset changes in the soil and forest floor. Soil parent material and geomorphic setting strongly influenced the changes in soil properties during the 21-yr period, reflecting the importance of those factors in assessing soil nutrient and C cycles over that of forest cover type. The variability encountered in the periodic soil measurements highlights the difficulty in detecting temporal changes in soil chemical properties.

  19. The cause of global amphibian declines: a developmental endocrinologist's perspective

    PubMed Central

    Hayes, T. B.; Falso, P.; Gallipeau, S.; Stice, M.

    2010-01-01

    Greater than 70% of the world's amphibian species are in decline. We propose that there is probably not a single cause for global amphibian declines and present a three-tiered hierarchical approach that addresses interactions among and between ultimate and proximate factors that contribute to amphibian declines. There are two immediate (proximate) causes of amphibian declines: death and decreased recruitment (reproductive failure). Although much attention has focused on death, few studies have addressed factors that contribute to declines as a result of failed recruitment. Further, a great deal of attention has focused on the role of pathogens in inducing diseases that cause death, but we suggest that pathogen success is profoundly affected by four other ultimate factors: atmospheric change, environmental pollutants, habitat modification and invasive species. Environmental pollutants arise as likely important factors in amphibian declines because they have realized potential to affect recruitment. Further, many studies have documented immunosuppressive effects of pesticides, suggesting a role for environmental contaminants in increased pathogen virulence and disease rates. Increased attention to recruitment and ultimate factors that interact with pathogens is important in addressing this global crisis. PMID:20190117

  20. The cause of global amphibian declines: a developmental endocrinologist's perspective.

    PubMed

    Hayes, T B; Falso, P; Gallipeau, S; Stice, M

    2010-03-15

    Greater than 70% of the world's amphibian species are in decline. We propose that there is probably not a single cause for global amphibian declines and present a three-tiered hierarchical approach that addresses interactions among and between ultimate and proximate factors that contribute to amphibian declines. There are two immediate (proximate) causes of amphibian declines: death and decreased recruitment (reproductive failure). Although much attention has focused on death, few studies have addressed factors that contribute to declines as a result of failed recruitment. Further, a great deal of attention has focused on the role of pathogens in inducing diseases that cause death, but we suggest that pathogen success is profoundly affected by four other ultimate factors: atmospheric change, environmental pollutants, habitat modification and invasive species. Environmental pollutants arise as likely important factors in amphibian declines because they have realized potential to affect recruitment. Further, many studies have documented immunosuppressive effects of pesticides, suggesting a role for environmental contaminants in increased pathogen virulence and disease rates. Increased attention to recruitment and ultimate factors that interact with pathogens is important in addressing this global crisis. PMID:20190117

  1. The possible role of air quality in sugar maple decline

    SciTech Connect

    Linzon, S.N. )

    1987-01-01

    The decline of sugar maple (Acer saccharum L.) was first reported to occur in North America in 1913. A review of the literature on the occurrence of sugar maple decline and the associated causal agents was made in 1986 based on 189 reports. No single cause for the decline was identified with a number of diverse factors being reported to be involved. These factors included defoliating insects, drought, nutritional deficiencies, improper woodlot management, secondary root rot organisms, road salt and acidic precipitation. In the Provinces of Quebec and Ontario, Canada, intensive studies into the occurrence and etiology of sugar maple decline commenced in the early 1980s. Maple syrup producers in both provinces complained that sugar maple trees were declining and dying in greater numbers than usual and suspected that air pollution, including acidic precipitation, was involved. This paper describes the symptoms associated with sugar maple decline, the surveys underway in both provinces, and the field and experimental studies being carried out to determine the role of air quality.

  2. PCC characteristics at rest in 10-year memory decliners.

    PubMed

    Bernard, Charlotte; Dilharreguy, Bixente; Helmer, Catherine; Chanraud, Sandra; Amieva, Hélène; Dartigues, Jean-François; Allard, Michèle; Catheline, Gwénaëlle

    2015-10-01

    The present research sought to characterize the intrinsic functional networks associated with a 10-year episodic memory decline in elderly using data from a longitudinal population-based cohort (Bordeaux-3City). Complementary measures of whole-brain resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging investigations were combined to compare functional architecture of brain networks both at connectional and topological levels in 22 decliners to 22 nondecliners; episodic memory decline being assessed through a multiple time point Free and Cued Selective Reminding Test. The decliners presented differences in functional architecture centered on the posterior cingulate cortex, characterized by a significant decrease of connectivity intensity, a significant increased centrality. In accordance, a decrease of the functional connectivity inside the default mode network was observed in the decliners. Our results highlight the central role of the posterior cingulate cortex in a slow but reliable memory decline in elderly. Because functional alterations of this region are currently described in Alzheimer's disease, this functional signature could constitute a risk for Alzheimer's disease. PMID:26234756

  3. Four Decades of Forest Persistence, Clearance and Logging on Borneo

    PubMed Central

    Gaveau, David L. A.; Sloan, Sean; Molidena, Elis; Yaen, Husna; Sheil, Doug; Abram, Nicola K.; Ancrenaz, Marc; Nasi, Robert; Quinones, Marcela; Wielaard, Niels; Meijaard, Erik

    2014-01-01

    The native forests of Borneo have been impacted by selective logging, fire, and conversion to plantations at unprecedented scales since industrial-scale extractive industries began in the early 1970s. There is no island-wide documentation of forest clearance or logging since the 1970s. This creates an information gap for conservation planning, especially with regard to selectively logged forests that maintain high conservation potential. Analysing LANDSAT images, we estimate that 75.7% (558,060 km2) of Borneo's area (737,188 km2) was forested around 1973. Based upon a forest cover map for 2010 derived using ALOS-PALSAR and visually reviewing LANDSAT images, we estimate that the 1973 forest area had declined by 168,493 km2 (30.2%) in 2010. The highest losses were recorded in Sabah and Kalimantan with 39.5% and 30.7% of their total forest area in 1973 becoming non-forest in 2010, and the lowest in Brunei and Sarawak (8.4%, and 23.1%). We estimate that the combined area planted in industrial oil palm and timber plantations in 2010 was 75,480 km2, representing 10% of Borneo. We mapped 271,819 km of primary logging roads that were created between 1973 and 2010. The greatest density of logging roads was found in Sarawak, at 0.89 km km−2, and the lowest density in Brunei, at 0.18 km km−2. Analyzing MODIS-based tree cover maps, we estimate that logging operated within 700 m of primary logging roads. Using this distance, we estimate that 266,257 km2 of 1973 forest cover has been logged. With 389,566 km2 (52.8%) of the island remaining forested, of which 209,649 km2 remains intact. There is still hope for biodiversity conservation in Borneo. Protecting logged forests from fire and conversion to plantations is an urgent priority for reducing rates of deforestation in Borneo. PMID:25029192

  4. Four decades of forest persistence, clearance and logging on Borneo.

    PubMed

    Gaveau, David L A; Sloan, Sean; Molidena, Elis; Yaen, Husna; Sheil, Doug; Abram, Nicola K; Ancrenaz, Marc; Nasi, Robert; Quinones, Marcela; Wielaard, Niels; Meijaard, Erik

    2014-01-01

    The native forests of Borneo have been impacted by selective logging, fire, and conversion to plantations at unprecedented scales since industrial-scale extractive industries began in the early 1970s. There is no island-wide documentation of forest clearance or logging since the 1970s. This creates an information gap for conservation planning, especially with regard to selectively logged forests that maintain high conservation potential. Analysing LANDSAT images, we estimate that 75.7% (558,060 km2) of Borneo's area (737,188 km2) was forested around 1973. Based upon a forest cover map for 2010 derived using ALOS-PALSAR and visually reviewing LANDSAT images, we estimate that the 1973 forest area had declined by 168,493 km2 (30.2%) in 2010. The highest losses were recorded in Sabah and Kalimantan with 39.5% and 30.7% of their total forest area in 1973 becoming non-forest in 2010, and the lowest in Brunei and Sarawak (8.4%, and 23.1%). We estimate that the combined area planted in industrial oil palm and timber plantations in 2010 was 75,480 km2, representing 10% of Borneo. We mapped 271,819 km of primary logging roads that were created between 1973 and 2010. The greatest density of logging roads was found in Sarawak, at 0.89 km km-2, and the lowest density in Brunei, at 0.18 km km-2. Analyzing MODIS-based tree cover maps, we estimate that logging operated within 700 m of primary logging roads. Using this distance, we estimate that 266,257 km2 of 1973 forest cover has been logged. With 389,566 km2 (52.8%) of the island remaining forested, of which 209,649 km2 remains intact. There is still hope for biodiversity conservation in Borneo. Protecting logged forests from fire and conversion to plantations is an urgent priority for reducing rates of deforestation in Borneo. PMID:25029192

  5. Potential climate change impacts on temperate forest ecosystem processes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Peters, Emily B.; Wythers, Kirk R.; Zhang, Shuxia; Bradford, John B.; Reich, Peter B.

    2013-01-01

    Large changes in atmospheric CO2, temperature and precipitation are predicted by 2100, yet the long-term consequences for carbon, water, and nitrogen cycling in forests are poorly understood. We applied the PnET-CN ecosystem model to compare the long-term effects of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 on productivity, evapotranspiration, runoff, and net nitrogen mineralization in current Great Lakes forest types. We used two statistically downscaled climate projections, PCM B1 (warmer and wetter) and GFDL A1FI (hotter and drier), to represent two potential future climate and atmospheric CO2 scenarios. To separate the effects of climate and CO2, we ran PnET-CN including and excluding the CO2 routine. Our results suggest that, with rising CO2 and without changes in forest type, average regional productivity could increase from 67% to 142%, changes in evapotranspiration could range from –3% to +6%, runoff could increase from 2% to 22%, and net N mineralization could increase 10% to 12%. Ecosystem responses varied geographically and by forest type. Increased productivity was almost entirely driven by CO2 fertilization effects, rather than by temperature or precipitation (model runs holding CO2 constant showed stable or declining productivity). The relative importance of edaphic and climatic spatial drivers of productivity varied over time, suggesting that productivity in Great Lakes forests may switch from being temperature to water limited by the end of the century.

  6. Changes in growth of pristine boreal North American forests from 1950 to 2005 driven by landscape demographics and species traits

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Girardin, M. P.; Guo, X. J.; Bernier, P. Y.; Raulier, F.; Gauthier, S.

    2012-01-01

    In spite of the many factors that are occurring and known for positively affecting the growth of forests, some boreal forests across North America have recently felt the adverse impacts of environmental changes. Knowledge of causes for productivity declines in North American boreal forests remains limited and this is owed to the large spatial and temporal scales involved, and the many plant processes affected. Here, the response of pristine eastern boreal North American (PEBNA) forests to ongoing climatic changes is examined using in situ data, community ecology statistics, and species-specific model simulations of carbon exchanges forced by contemporary climatic data. To examine trends in forest growth, we used a recently acquired collection of tree-ring width data from 252 sample plots distributed in PEBNA forests dominated by black spruce (Picea mariana [Mill.] B.S.P.) and jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.). Results of linear trend analysis on the tree growth data highlight a dominating forest growth decline in overmature forests (age > 120 yr) from 1950 to 2005. In contrast, improving growth conditions are seen in jack pine and mature (70-120 yr) black spruce stands. Multivariate analysis of climate and growth relationships suggests that responses of PEBNA forests to climate are dependent on demographic and species traits via their mediation of temperature and water stress constraints. In support of this hypothesis, the simulation experiment suggests that in old-growth black spruce stands the benefit to growth brought on by a longer growing season may have been low in comparison with the increasing moisture stress and respiration losses caused by warmer summer temperatures. Predicted increases in wildfire frequency in PEBNA forests will likely enhance the positive response of landscape-level forest growth to climate change by shifting the forest distribution to younger age classes while also enhancing the jack pine component.

  7. Changes in growth of pristine boreal North American forests from 1950 to 2005 driven by landscape demographics and species traits

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Girardin, M. P.; Guo, X. J.; Bernier, P. Y.; Raulier, F.; Gauthier, S.

    2012-07-01

    In spite of the many factors that are occurring and known for positively affecting the growth of forests, some boreal forests across North America have recently felt the adverse impacts of environmental changes. Knowledge of causes for productivity declines in North American boreal forests remains limited, and this is owed to the large spatial and temporal scales involved, and the many plant processes affected. Here, the response of pristine eastern boreal North American (PEBNA) forests to ongoing climatic changes is examined using in situ data, community ecology statistics, and species-specific model simulations of carbon exchanges forced by contemporary climatic data. To examine trends in forest growth, we used a recently acquired collection of tree-ring width data from 252 sample plots distributed in PEBNA forests dominated by black spruce (Picea mariana [Mill.] B.S.P.) and jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.). Results of linear trend analysis on the tree growth data highlight a dominating forest growth decline in overmature forests (age > 120 years) from 1950 to 2005. In contrast, improving growth conditions are seen in jack pine and mature (70-120 years) black spruce stands. Multivariate analysis of climate and growth relationships suggests that responses of PEBNA forests to climate are dependent on demographic and species traits via their mediation of temperature and water stress constraints. In support of this hypothesis, the simulation experiment suggests that in old-growth black spruce stands the benefit to growth brought on by a longer growing season may have been low in comparison with the increasing moisture stress and respiration losses caused by warmer summer temperatures. Predicted increases in wildfire frequency in PEBNA forests will likely enhance the positive response of landscape-level forest growth to climate change by shifting the forest distribution to younger age classes while also enhancing the jack pine component.

  8. Forest transitions in Eastern Europe and their effects on carbon budgets.

    PubMed

    Kuemmerle, Tobias; Kaplan, Jed O; Prishchepov, Alexander V; Rylsky, Ilya; Chaskovskyy, Oleh; Tikunov, Vladimir S; Müller, Daniel

    2015-08-01

    Forests often rebound from deforestation following industrialization and urbanization, but for many regions our understanding of where and when forest transitions happened, and how they affected carbon budgets remains poor. One such region is Eastern Europe, where political and socio-economic conditions changed drastically over the last three centuries, but forest trends have not yet been analyzed in detail. We present a new assessment of historical forest change in the European part of the former Soviet Union and the legacies of these changes on contemporary carbon stocks. To reconstruct forest area, we homogenized statistics at the provincial level for ad 1700-2010 to identify forest transition years and forest trends. We contrast our reconstruction with the KK11 and HYDE 3.1 land change scenarios, and use all three datasets to drive the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model to calculate carbon stock dynamics. Our results revealed that forest transitions in Eastern Europe occurred predominantly in the early 20th century, substantially later than in Western Europe. We also found marked geographic variation in forest transitions, with some areas characterized by relatively stable or continuously declining forest area. Our data suggest extensive deforestation in European Russia already prior to ad 1700, and even greater deforestation in the 18th and 19th centuries than in the KK11 and HYDE scenarios. Based on our reconstruction, cumulative carbon emissions from deforestation were greater before 1700 (60 Pg C) than thereafter (29 Pg C). Summed over our entire study area, forest transitions led to a modest uptake in carbon over recent decades, with our dataset showing the smallest effect (<5.5 Pg C) and a more heterogeneous pattern of source and sink regions. This suggests substantial sequestration potential in regrowing forests of the region, a trend that may be amplified through ongoing land abandonment, climate change, and CO2 fertilization. PMID:25691481

  9. The purpose of forests

    SciTech Connect

    Westoby, J.

    1987-01-01

    The writings and speeches in this book have been selected to illustrate Jack Westoby's contributions to international forestry over the last two decades and more, and to show something of the evolution of his thinking. The problems he addresses are ones central to international forest policy and to the proper social responsibilities of foresters. This paper covers the following topics: Part I is a selection of papers which Westoby wrote during the 1960s on forest industries and their part in propelling economic development. The papers of Part II explore the responsibilities and dilemmas of the forestry profession in deciding which, among conflicting interests, to serve. Part III develops and enlarges Westoby's ideas of what forestry should be about-which he earlier defined as making trees serve people.

  10. [Ticks bite in foresters].

    PubMed

    Livio, M; Mobilia, A; Abbate, S; Saffioti, G; Nicolosi, L; Isaia, S; Calabrese, C; Graceffa, C

    2007-01-01

    The objective of the study is evalutation of the risk for ticks strings on foresters. The sample constituted by 325 foresters belong to Messina province as been submitted to medical examination venous tests. Whole sample had to answer to a questionnaire to consider. The prevalence of systemic and skin reactions and we have dose Immunoglobulines versus Brucella Melitensis, Rickettsie Conorii e Borrelia Burgdorferi. The results showed that the 19% has declared past stings of tick, and 4.9% reported symptoms probably deriving to a past infections determined by inquired microorganisms. The serum tests showed that 70% was positive for all microorganisms, instead only 31%. Was never infected by inquired microorganisms. In conclusion our study shows that zoonos is risk linked to stings of tick is relatively high in foresters. PMID:18409975

  11. Forests as carbon sinks

    SciTech Connect

    Houghton, R.A.; Woodwell, R.M.

    1995-11-01

    When the nations of the world signed and later ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), they accepted the difficult challenge of stabilizing the composition of the atmosphere with respect to the greenhouse gases (GHGs). Success will require a reduction in both use of fossil fuels and rates of deforestation. Forests have a large enough influence on the atmosphere that one of the options for stabilizing the concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere includes the use of forests as a carbon sink through reforestation of large areas. We identify in this paper the potential and the limitations of such projects. We discuss the implications of four approaches in management of forests globally: (i) continued deforestation, (ii) halting deforestation, (iii) net reforestation including agroforestry, and (iv) substituting the use of wood fuels for fossil fuels.

  12. Perceptions about Forest Schools: Encouraging and Promoting Archimedes Forest Schools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nawaz, Haq; Blackwell, Sarah

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to find out parents' and children's perception of outdoor learning programmes with specific reference to Archimedes Forest Schools, known as Forest Schools. A review of existing research showed that there had been no rigorous evaluation of perception of forest schools. The study was conducted in the UK and mixed…

  13. Impacts of Invasive Pests on Forest Carbon and Nitrogen Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lovett, G. M.; Crowley, K. F.

    2014-12-01

    Forests of the U.S. have been subject to repeated invasions of destructive insects and diseases imported from other continents. Like other disturbances, these pests can produce short-term ecosystem effects due to tree mortality, but unlike other disturbances, they often target individual species and therefore can cause long-term species change in the forest. Because tree species vary in their influence on carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles, pest-induced species change can radically alter the biogeochemistry of a forest. In this paper we use both data and modeling to examine how pest-induced species change may alter the C and N cycling in forests of the eastern U.S. We describe a new forest ecosystem model that distinguishes individual tree species and allows species composition to shift over the course of the model run. Results indicate that the mortality of eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) by hemlock woolly adelgid and its replacement by faster-growing species such as black birch (Betula lenta) will reduce forest floor C stocks but increase productivity as the birch become established. Decline of American beech (Fagus grandifolia) from beech bark disease and its replacement by sugar maple (Acer saccharum) is likely to decrease soil C storage and increase N leaching from the ecosystem. Responses to other invasive pests will also be discussed. The magnitude of these species-specific effects on C and N cycling is in many cases larger than direct effects expected from changes in climate and atmospheric N deposition, indicating that species change should be included in models that predict forest ecosystem function under future environmental conditions.

  14. Modeling Transient Response of Forests to Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Dale, Virginia H; Tharp, M Lynn; Lannom, Karen O.; Hodges, Donald G

    2010-01-01

    Our hypothesis is that a high diversity of dominant life forms in Tennessee forests conveys resilience to disturbance such as climate change. Because of uncertainty in climate change and their effects, three climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2080 from three General Circulation Models (GCMs) were used to simulate a range of potential climate conditions for the state. These climate changes derive from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B storyline that assumes rapid global economic growth. The precipitation and temperature projections from the three GCMs for 2030 and 2080 were related to changes in five ecological provinces using the monthly record of temperature and precipitation from 1980 to 1997 for each 1 km cell across the state as aggregated into the provinces. Temperatures are projected to increase in all ecological provinces in all months for all three GCMs for both 2030 and 2080. Precipitation differences from the long-term average are more complex but less striking. The forest ecosystem model LINKAGES was used to simulate conditions for five ecological provinces from 1989 to 2300. Average output projects changes in tree diversity and species composition in all ecological provinces in Tennessee with the greatest changes in the Southern Mixed Forest province. Projected declines in total tree biomass are followed by biomass recovery as species replacement occurs in stands. The Southern Mixed Forest province results in less diversity in dominant trees as well as lower overall biomass than projections for the other four provinces. The biomass and composition changes projected in this study differ from forest dynamics expected without climate change. These results suggest that biomass recovery following climate change is linked to dominant tree diversity in the southeastern forest of the US. The generality of this observation warrants further investigation, for it relates to ways that forest management may influence climate change effects.

  15. Management Options for a High Elevation Forest in the Alps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jandl, R.; Jandl, N.; Schindlbacher, A.

    2013-12-01

    We explored different management strategies for a Cembran pine forest close to the timber line with respect to maintenance of the stand structure, the sequestration of carbon in the biomass and the soil, and the economical relevance of timber production. We used the forest growth simulation model Caldis for the implementation of three management intensities (zero managment, thinning every 30 years, thinning every 50 years) under two climate scenarios (IPCC A1B and B1). The soil carbon dynamics were analyzed with the simulation model Yasso07. The ecological evaluation of our simulation data showed that the extensive management with cutting interventions every 50 years allows the maintenance of the ecosystem carbon pool. Zero managment leads to the build-up of the carbon pool because the forest stand is rather unvulnerable to disturbances (bark beetle, storm). The more intensive mangement causes a decline in the ecosystem carbon pool. The economical evaluation showed the marginal relevance of the income generated by timber production. The main challenge is the compensation for the high harvesting costs (long-distance cable logging system). Even at extremely favorable market prices for timber from Cembran pine it is impossible to extract an appropriate amount of timber to justify the temporary instalment of the harvesting system and to maintain a stand density expected for a protection forest. We conclude that timber production is not a feasible object for mountain forests close to the timber line. Even in a warmer climate the productivity situation of forests close to the timberline will not change sufficiently. Therefore it will require public subsidies and personal efforts to maintain the silvicultural intensity at a level that is required for the sustainable maintenance of protection forests.

  16. Tropical forest fragmentation limits pollination of a keystone understory herb.

    PubMed

    Hadley, Adam S; Frey, Sarah J K; Robinson, W Douglas; Kress, W John; Betts, Matthew G

    2014-08-01

    Loss of native vegetation cover is thought to be a major driver of declines in pollination success worldwide. However, it is not well known whether reducing the fragmentation of remaining vegetation can ameliorate these negative effects. We tested the independent effects of composition vs. configuration on the reproductive success of a keystone tropical forest herb (Heliconia tortuosa). To do this we designed a large-scale mensurative experiment that independently varied connected forest-patch size (configuration) and surrounding amount of forest (composition). In each patch, we tested whether pollen tubes, fruit, and seed set were associated with these landscape variables. We also captured hummingbirds as an indication of pollinator availability in a subset of patches according to the same design. We found evidence for an effect of configuration on seed set of H. tortuosa, but not on other aspects of plant reproduction; proportion of seeds produced increased 40% across the gradient in patch size we observed (0.64 to > 1300 ha), independent of the amount of forest in the surrounding landscape at both local and landscape scales. We also found that the availability of pollinators was dependent upon forest configuration; hummingbird capture rates increased three and one-half times across the patch size gradient, independent of forest amount. Finally, pollinator availability was strongly positively correlated with seed set. We hypothesize that the effects of configuration on plant fitness that we observed are due to reduced pollen quality resulting from altered hummingbird availability and/or movement behavior. Our results suggest that prioritizing larger patches of tropical forest may be particularly important for conservation of this species. PMID:25230471

  17. Tracking forest cover change of Margalla Hills over a period of two decades (1992-2011): A remote sensing perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khalid, Noora; Ullah, Saleem

    2016-07-01

    Forests play a critical role in balancing the ecological soundness of a region and in the facilitation of essential forest resources. Depletion of forest cover is a serious environmental problem throughout the world including Pakistan where a striking degradation of forest reserves has been an ecological concern for quite some time. Remote sensing techniques have been used to monitor land use and forest cover changes. The present study aims at exploring the potential impacts of climate change in the decline of forest reserves on Margalla Hills National Park (MHNP), since it remains the primary culprit behind this depletion. Landsat images for 1992, 2000 and 2011 were manipulated for the spatial and temporal analysis, interpretation and computation of the change and shift that has occurred over the past two decades. The analysis revealed a great increase in the built-up area, barren soil and agricultural land. Though other classes such as water body, lower vegetation, scrub and conifer forest showed a diminishing trend. The rise in temperature and relative humidity, the depletion in annual precipitation, frequent wild fires and the boost in urbanization and agricultural practices are the climatic conditions and causative agents chiefly responsible for the decline shown by the vegetation of the area. The degrading condition of the forest is below par and requires conservation practices to be carried out in order to avoid ecological disturbances.

  18. Forest Pest Control. Manual 94.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Missouri Univ., Columbia. Agricultural Experiment Station.

    This training manual provides information needed to meet the minimum EPA standards for certification as a commercial applicator of pesticides in forest pest control. The text discusses disease problems, insects, and herbicide use in both established forests and nurseries. (CS)

  19. Fighting Forest Fires

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1993-01-01

    Firefly is an airborne system for imaging forest fires. It uses satellite-based navigation for greater positioning accuracy and offers timeliness in fire location data delivery with on board data processing and a direct aircraft-to-fire camp communications link. Developed by Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the USFS, it has an infrared line scanner to identify fire boundaries and an infrared sensor system that can penetrate smoke to image the ground. Firefly is an outgrowth of a previous collaboration that produced FLAME, an airborne fire mapping instrument. Further refinements are anticipated by NASA and the United States Forest Service (USFS).

  20. Forest nutrition management

    SciTech Connect

    Binkley, D.

    1986-01-01

    This book draws on the fields of silviculture, soil studies, ecology, and economics to provide information on how to enhance the nutritional status of forest soils in order to increase their long-term stand productivity. It covers the use of fertilizers to enhance biological nitrogen fixation and how the nutrition status of forests is affected by other operations, such as harvesting and site preparation. Methods for assessing nutrient status, the economics of nutrition management, and models to aid in decision-making are included.

  1. Ecophysiology of coniferous forests

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, W.K.; Hinckley, T.M.

    1995-03-01

    This book focuses on a synthetic view of the resource physiology of conifer trees with an emphasis on developing a perspective that can integrate across the biological hierarchy. This objective is in concert with more scientific goals of maintaining biological diversity and the sustainability of forest systems. The preservation of coniferous forest ecosystems is a major concern today. The following chapters discuss different aspects of conifers. They include: genetics and the physiological ecology; long-term records of growth and distribution; plant hormones and ecophysiology; and physiological processes as related to winter dormancy, insects, climate, and air pollution. Selected papers are indexed separately for inclusion in the Energy Science and Technology Database.

  2. Forest Structure in Low-Diversity Tropical Forests: A Study of Hawaiian Wet and Dry Forests

    PubMed Central

    Ostertag, Rebecca; Inman-Narahari, Faith; Cordell, Susan; Giardina, Christian P.; Sack, Lawren

    2014-01-01

    The potential influence of diversity on ecosystem structure and function remains a topic of significant debate, especially for tropical forests where diversity can range widely. We used Center for Tropical Forest Science (CTFS) methodology to establish forest dynamics plots in montane wet forest and lowland dry forest on Hawai‘i Island. We compared the species diversity, tree density, basal area, biomass, and size class distributions between the two forest types. We then examined these variables across tropical forests within the CTFS network. Consistent with other island forests, the Hawai‘i forests were characterized by low species richness and very high relative dominance. The two Hawai‘i forests were floristically distinct, yet similar in species richness (15 vs. 21 species) and stem density (3078 vs. 3486/ha). While these forests were selected for their low invasive species cover relative to surrounding forests, both forests averaged 5–>50% invasive species cover; ongoing removal will be necessary to reduce or prevent competitive impacts, especially from woody species. The montane wet forest had much larger trees, resulting in eightfold higher basal area and above-ground biomass. Across the CTFS network, the Hawaiian montane wet forest was similar to other tropical forests with respect to diameter distributions, density, and aboveground biomass, while the Hawai‘i lowland dry forest was similar in density to tropical forests with much higher diversity. These findings suggest that forest structural variables can be similar across tropical forests independently of species richness. The inclusion of low-diversity Pacific Island forests in the CTFS network provides an ∼80-fold range in species richness (15–1182 species), six-fold variation in mean annual rainfall (835–5272 mm yr−1) and 1.8-fold variation in mean annual temperature (16.0–28.4°C). Thus, the Hawaiian forest plots expand the global forest plot network to enable testing of

  3. The Holocene British and Irish ancient forest fossil beetle fauna: implications for forest history, biodiversity and faunal colonisation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whitehouse, Nicki J.

    2006-08-01

    This paper presents a new review of our knowledge of the ancient forest beetle fauna from Holocene archaeological and palaeoecological sites in Great Britain and Ireland. It examines the colonisation, dispersal and decline of beetle species, highlighting the scale and nature of human activities in the shaping of the landscape of the British Isles. In particular, the paper discusses effects upon the insect fauna, and examines in detail the fossil record from the Humberhead Levels, eastern England. It discusses the local extirpation of up to 40 species in Britain and 15 species in Ireland. An evaluation of the timing of extirpations is made, suggesting that many species in Britain disappear from the fossil record between ca 3000 and 1000 cal BC (ca 5000-3000 cal BP), although some taxa may well have survived until considerably later. In Ireland, there are two distinct trends, with a group of species which seem to be absent after ca 2000 cal BC (ca 4000 cal BP) and a further group which survives until at least as late as the medieval period. The final clearance of the Irish landscape over the last few hundred years was so dramatic, however, that some species which are not especially unusual in a British context were decimated. Reasons behind the extirpation of taxa are examined in detail, and include a combination of forest clearance and human activities, isolation of populations, lack of temporal continuity of habitats, edaphic and competition factors affecting distribution of host trees (particularly pine), lack of forest fires and a decline in open forest systems. The role of climate change in extirpations is also evaluated. Consideration is given to the significance of these specialised ancient forest inhabitants in Ireland in the absence of an early Holocene land-bridge which suggests that colonisation was aided by other mechanisms, such as human activities and wood rafting. Finally, the paper discusses the Continental origins of the British and Irish fauna and

  4. Dropping dead: causes and consequences of vulture population declines worldwide.

    PubMed

    Ogada, Darcy L; Keesing, Felicia; Virani, Munir Z

    2012-02-01

    Vultures are nature's most successful scavengers, and they provide an array of ecological, economic, and cultural services. As the only known obligate scavengers, vultures are uniquely adapted to a scavenging lifestyle. Vultures' unique adaptations include soaring flight, keen eyesight, and extremely low pH levels in their stomachs. Presently, 14 of 23 (61%) vulture species worldwide are threatened with extinction, and the most rapid declines have occurred in the vulture-rich regions of Asia and Africa. The reasons for the population declines are varied, but poisoning or human persecution, or both, feature in the list of nearly every declining species. Deliberate poisoning of carnivores is likely the most widespread cause of vulture poisoning. In Asia, Gyps vultures have declined by >95% due to poisoning by the veterinary drug diclofenac, which was banned by regional governments in 2006. Human persecution of vultures has occurred for centuries, and shooting and deliberate poisoning are the most widely practiced activities. Ecological consequences of vulture declines include changes in community composition of scavengers at carcasses and an increased potential for disease transmission between mammalian scavengers at carcasses. There have been cultural and economic costs of vulture declines as well, particularly in Asia. In the wake of catastrophic vulture declines in Asia, regional governments, the international scientific and donor communities, and the media have given the crisis substantial attention. Even though the Asian vulture crisis focused attention on the plight of vultures worldwide, the situation for African vultures has received relatively little attention especially given the similar levels of population decline. While the Asian crisis has been largely linked to poisoning by diclofenac, vulture population declines in Africa have numerous causes, which have made conserving existing populations more difficult. And in Africa there has been little

  5. Declining mortality from smoking in the United States.

    PubMed

    Rodu, Brad; Cole, Philip

    2007-07-01

    The proportion of Americans who smoke cigarettes has declined 50% since 1965. The effect on mortality of this considerable reduction has received little attention and is described in this study. U.S. national data were used to enumerate current, former, and never-smokers aged 35 years or older in 1987 and 2002. Mortality rate ratios were used to estimate smoking-attributable deaths among these groups, and corresponding age-adjusted smoking-attributable mortality rates (SAMRs) were calculated. There were 402,000 deaths attributable to smoking in 1987 and 322,000 in 2002. The SAMR for men aged 35 years or more was 556 deaths per 100,000 person-years in 1987, accounting for 24% of all male deaths. By 2002 the SAMR declined 41% to 329 and accounted for only 17% of deaths. The SAMR for women in 1987 was 175, accounting for 12% of deaths. By 2002 the SAMR among women had declined 30% to 122, representing 9% of deaths. The U.S. mortality rate attributable to smoking declined about 35% between 1987 and 2002. The impact of smoking on American society will diminish even further in the foreseeable future as smoking prevalence continues its decline among men and women. PMID:17577808

  6. Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Observations, Projections, Mechanisms, and Implications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    DeWeaver, Eric T.; Bitz, Cecilia M.; Tremblay, L.-Bruno

    This volume addresses the rapid decline of Arctic sea ice, placing recent sea ice decline in the context of past observations, climate model simulations and projections, and simple models of the climate sensitivity of sea ice. Highlights of the work presented here include • An appraisal of the role played by wind forcing in driving the decline; • A reconstruction of Arctic sea ice conditions prior to human observations, based on proxy data from sediments; • A modeling approach for assessing the impact of sea ice decline on polar bears, used as input to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's decision to list the polar bear as a threatened species under the Endangered Species Act; • Contrasting studies on the existence of a "tipping point," beyond which Arctic sea ice decline will become (or has already become) irreversible, including an examination of the role of the small ice cap instability in global warming simulations; • A significant summertime atmospheric response to sea ice reduction in an atmospheric general circulation model, suggesting a positive feedback and the potential for short-term climate prediction. The book will be of interest to researchers attempting to understand the recent behavior of Arctic sea ice, model projections of future sea ice loss, and the consequences of sea ice loss for the natural and human systems of the Arctic.

  7. Inquiry Into Terminal Decline: Five Objectives for Future Study

    PubMed Central

    Gerstorf, Denis

    2013-01-01

    Notions of terminal decline propose that late-life change is primarily driven by processes closely tied to pathology and mortality rather than chronological age. We use the rationales of longitudinal research as outlined by Baltes and Nesselroade (Baltes, P., & Nesselroade, J. [1979]. History and rationale of longitudinal research. In J. R. Nesselroade & P. Baltes (Eds.), Longitudinal research in the study of behavior and development [pp. 1–39]. San Diego, CA: Academic Press) as a framework for organizing research on terminal decline. In doing so, we note that there are relatively robust descriptions of terminal decline across a variety of different domains, as well as the extent of interindividual differences in the levels of function, rates of change, and timing of terminal decline (research rationales 1 and 2). However, there is much more to learn about the interrelations among change in different domains, the underlying mechanisms of change, and the factors that contribute to interindividual differences in change (research rationales 3–5). Needed are new study designs and analytical models that better address the structural, temporal, and causal interrelations that contribute to and protect against terminal decline. PMID:23704220

  8. Global amphibian declines: perspectives from the United States and beyond

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Densmore, Christine L.

    2011-01-01

    Over recent decades, amphibians have experienced population declines, extirpations and species-level extinctions at an alarming rate. Numerous potential etiologies for amphibian declines have been postulated including climate and habitat degradation. Other potential anthropogenic causes including overexploitation and the frequent introductions of invasive predatory species have also been blamed for amphibian declines. Still other underlying factors may include infectious diseases caused by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, pathogenic viruses (Ranavirus), and other agents. It is nearly certain that more than one etiology is to blame for the majority of the global amphibian declines, and that these causal factors include some combination of climatological or physical habitat destabilization and infectious disease, most notably chytridiomycosis. Scientific research efforts are aimed at elucidating these etiologies on local, regional, and global scales that we might better understand and counteract the driving forces behind amphibian declines. Conservation efforts as outlined in the Amphibian Conservation Action Plan of 2005 are also being made to curtail losses and prevent further extinctions wherever possible.

  9. Intersexuality and the Cricket Frog Decline: Historic and Geographic Trends

    PubMed Central

    Reeder, Amy L.; Ruiz, Marilyn O.; Pessier, Allan; Brown, Lauren E.; Levengood, Jeffrey M.; Phillips, Christopher A.; Wheeler, Matthew B.; Warner, Richard E.; Beasley, Val R.

    2005-01-01

    Exposure to anthropogenic endocrine disruptors has been listed as one of several potential causes of amphibian declines in recent years. We examined gonads of 814 cricket frogs (Acris crepitans) collected in Illinois and deposited in museum collections to elucidate relationships between the decline of this species in Illinois and the spatial and temporal distribution of individuals with intersex gonads. Compared with the preorganochlorine era studied (1852–1929), the percentage of intersex cricket frogs increased during the period of industrial growth and initial uses of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) (1930–1945), was highest during the greatest manufacture and use of p,p-dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) and PCBs (1946–1959), began declining with the increase in public concern and environmental regulations that reduced and then prevented sales of DDT in the United States (1960–1979), and continued to decline through the period of gradual reductions in environmental residues of organochlorine pesticides and PCBs in the midwestern United States (1980–2001). The proportion of intersex individuals among those frogs was highest in the heavily industrialized and urbanized northeastern portion of Illinois, intermediate in the intensively farmed central and northwestern areas, and lowest in the less intensively managed and ecologically more diverse southern part of the state. Records of deposits of cricket frog specimens into museum collections indicate a marked reduction in numbers from northeastern Illinois in recent decades. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that endocrine disruption contributed to the decline of cricket frogs in Illinois. PMID:15743712

  10. The decline of teacher autonomy: Tears or cheers?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, Lorin W.

    1987-09-01

    In the United States teacher autonomy has been declining for at least a decade. This decline can be attributed in large part to three factors. First, uniform staff development programmes based on research on effective teaching have become widespread. Second, classroom observations have become an integral part of imposed teacher evaluations. Third, school principals have been called on to assume the role of `instructional leader'. While some may perceive the decline of teacher autonomy negatively, at least two benefits of this decline have been identified. First, a `common language' by which teachers can discuss the problems and potential of instruction and teaching among themselves and with school administrators is developing. Second, the likelihood that teachers will achieve a truly professional status is enhanced. Many educators write as if the natural result of a decline in teacher autonomy is standardization; that is, the cloning of teachers. This article negates such pessimism. Teacher autonomy, like many educational variables, exists along a continuum. As a consequence, a midpoint on the autonomy continuum — a balance between uniqueness and standardization, between license and responsibility — is the desirable state of affairs. Finally, autonomy should be earned by teachers, not simply given to them. In this regard, greater concern should be given to teachers' preparation for, and induction into, their roles as school teachers. Similarly, increases in autonomy should mirror increases in teacher status; status defined in terms of teacher experience, expertise, and excellence.

  11. Detecting insect pollinator declines on regional and global scales

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lubuhn, Gretchen; Droege, Sam; Connor, Edward F.; Gemmill-Herren, Barbara; Potts, Simon G.; Minckley, Robert L.; Griswold, Terry; Jean, Robert; Kula, Emanuel; Roubik, David W.; Cane, Jim; Wright, Karen W.; Frankie, Gordon; Parker, Frank

    2013-01-01

    Recently there has been considerable concern about declines in bee communities in agricultural and natural habitats. The value of pollination to agriculture, provided primarily by bees, is >$200 billion/year worldwide, and in natural ecosystems it is thought to be even greater. However, no monitoring program exists to accurately detect declines in abundance of insect pollinators; thus, it is difficult to quantify the status of bee communities or estimate the extent of declines. We used data from 11 multiyear studies of bee communities to devise a program to monitor pollinators at regional, national, or international scales. In these studies, 7 different methods for sampling bees were used and bees were sampled on 3 different continents. We estimated that a monitoring program with 200-250 sampling locations each sampled twice over 5 years would provide sufficient power to detect small (2-5%) annual declines in the number of species and in total abundance and would cost U.S.$2,000,000. To detect declines as small as 1% annually over the same period would require >300 sampling locations. Given the role of pollinators in food security and ecosystem function, we recommend establishment of integrated regional and international monitoring programs to detect changes in pollinator communities.

  12. Perceived personal control buffers terminal decline in well-being.

    PubMed

    Gerstorf, Denis; Heckhausen, Jutta; Ram, Nilam; Infurna, Frank J; Schupp, Jürgen; Wagner, Gert G

    2014-09-01

    Recent research has repeatedly demonstrated that well-being typically evinces precipitous deterioration close to the end of life. However, the determinants of individual differences in these terminal declines are not well understood. In this study, we examine the role of perceived personal control as a potential buffer against steep terminal declines in well-being. We applied single- and multiphase growth models to up to 25-year longitudinal data from 1,641 now-deceased participants of the national German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP; age at death: M = 74 years; SD = 14; 49% women). Results revealed that perceiving more personal control over one's life was related to subsequently higher late-life well-being, less severe rates of late-life declines, and a later onset of terminal decline. Associations were independent of key predictors of mortality, including age, gender, SES, and disability. These findings suggest that feeling in control may ameliorate steep end-of-life decline in well-being. We also discuss scenarios for when and how processes of goal disengagement and giving up control may become beneficial. PMID:25244480

  13. Decline in long-term growth trends of white oak

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Phipps, R.L.; Whiton, J.C.

    1988-01-01

    Quercus alba tree-ring collections from 89 locations throughout much of its range, from Connecticut to North Carolina to Iowa, were examined for evidence of growth decline initiated in the 1950s. The expected trend of annual basal area increments, based on pre-1950 growth, appears to be linear, with the slope varying among collections relative to site quality. Growth decline, defined as departure of actual growth below that expected, was identified in 40 to 60 collections judged to have not been affected by local site histories. The percentage of collections showing decline was essentially the same in the Northeast, the Midwest and the Southeast. Onset of decline began during a relatively narrow time window from the mid-1950's to the early 1960's. Since then the growth trend has been linear and appears unrelated to changes in regional sulfur and nitrogen oxide emissions. Events or conditions, unique to the 1950's, initiated a growth rate change in c 2/3 of the stands examined. Initiation of the decline appears to be unrelated to tree age, geographic location, site quality, climatic trends, or regional emissions of sulfur and nitrogen oxides. -from Authors

  14. Patterns of widespread decline in North American bumble bees.

    PubMed

    Cameron, Sydney A; Lozier, Jeffrey D; Strange, James P; Koch, Jonathan B; Cordes, Nils; Solter, Leellen F; Griswold, Terry L

    2011-01-11

    Bumble bees (Bombus) are vitally important pollinators of wild plants and agricultural crops worldwide. Fragmentary observations, however, have suggested population declines in several North American species. Despite rising concern over these observations in the United States, highlighted in a recent National Academy of Sciences report, a national assessment of the geographic scope and possible causal factors of bumble bee decline is lacking. Here, we report results of a 3-y interdisciplinary study of changing distributions, population genetic structure, and levels of pathogen infection in bumble bee populations across the United States. We compare current and historical distributions of eight species, compiling a database of >73,000 museum records for comparison with data from intensive nationwide surveys of >16,000 specimens. We show that the relative abundances of four species have declined by up to 96% and that their surveyed geographic ranges have contracted by 23-87%, some within the last 20 y. We also show that declining populations have significantly higher infection levels of the microsporidian pathogen Nosema bombi and lower genetic diversity compared with co-occurring populations of the stable (nondeclining) species. Higher pathogen prevalence and reduced genetic diversity are, thus, realistic predictors of these alarming patterns of decline in North America, although cause and effect remain uncertain. PMID:21199943

  15. Lessons from the Rain Forest.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Phillips, Shelley

    2002-01-01

    Presents a first-grade art project after students learned about the rain forest and heard the story, "The Great Kapok Tree: A Tale of the Amazon Rain Forest" (Lynn Cherry). Explains that the students created pictures of the rain forest. (CMK)

  16. Anthropogenic effects on a tropical forest according to the distance from human settlements.

    PubMed

    Popradit, Ananya; Srisatit, Thares; Kiratiprayoon, Somboon; Yoshimura, Jin; Ishida, Atsushi; Shiyomi, Masae; Murayama, Takehiko; Chantaranothai, Pranom; Outtaranakorn, Somkid; Phromma, Issara

    2015-01-01

    The protection of tropical forests is one of the most urgent issues in conservation biology because of the rapid deforestation that has occurred over the last 50 years. Even in protected forests, the anthropogenic effects from newly expanding villages such as harvesting of medicinal plants, pasturing cattle and forest fires can induce environmental modifications, especially on the forest floor. We evaluated the anthropogenic effects of the daily activities of neighboring residents on natural forests in 12 plots extending from the village boundary into a natural forest in Thailand. The basal area per unit land area did not present a significant trend; however, the species diversity of woody plants decreased linearly towards the village boundary, which caused a loss of individual density because of severe declines in small saplings compared with adult trees and large saplings in proximity to the village. An analysis of tree-size categories indicates a lack of small samplings near the village boundary. The current forest appears to be well protected based on the adult tree canopy, but regeneration of the present-day forests is unlikely because of the loss of seedlings. PMID:26434950

  17. Vietnam's Forest Transition in Retrospect: Demonstrating Weaknesses in Business-as-Usual Scenarios for REDD+

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ankersen, Jeppe; Grogan, Kenneth; Mertz, Ole; Fensholt, Rasmus; Castella, Jean-Christophe; Lestrelin, Guillaume; Nguyen, Dinh Tien; Danielsen, Finn; Brofeldt, Søren; Rasmussen, Kjeld

    2015-05-01

    One of the prerequisites of the REDD+ mechanism is to effectively predict business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios for change in forest cover. This would enable estimation of how much carbon emission a project could potentially prevent and thus how much carbon credit should be rewarded. However, different factors like forest degradation and the lack of linearity in forest cover transitions challenge the accuracy of such scenarios. Here we predict and validate such BAU scenarios retrospectively based on forest cover changes at village and district level in North Central Vietnam. With the government's efforts to increase the forest cover, land use policies led to gradual abandonment of shifting cultivation since the 1990s. We analyzed Landsat images from 1973, 1989, 1998, 2000, and 2011 and found that the policies in the areas studied did lead to increased forest cover after a long period of decline, but that this increase could mainly be attributed to an increase in open forest and shrub areas. We compared Landsat classifications with participatory maps of land cover/use in 1998 and 2012 that indicated more forest degradation than was captured by the Landsat analysis. The BAU scenarios were heavily dependent on which years were chosen for the reference period. This suggests that hypothetical REDD+ activities in the past, when based on the remote sensing data available at that time, would have been unable to correctly estimate changes in carbon stocks and thus produce relevant BAU scenarios.

  18. Denitrification and N2O emission from forested and cultivated alluvial clay soil

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ullah, S.; Breitenbeck, G.A.; Faulkner, S.P.

    2005-01-01

    Restored forested wetlands reduce N loads in surface discharge through plant uptake and denitrification. While removal of reactive N reduces impact on receiving waters, it is unclear whether enhanced denitrification also enhances emissions of the greenhouse gas N2O, thus compromising the water-quality benefits of restoration. This study compares denitrification rates and N2O:N2 emission ratios from Sharkey clay soil in a mature bottomland forest to those from an adjacent cultivated site in the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley. Potential denitrification of forested soil was 2.4 times of cultivated soil. Using intact soil cores, denitrification rates of forested soil were 5.2, 6.6 and 2.0 times those of cultivated soil at 70, 85 and 100% water-filled pore space (WFPS), respectively. When NO3 was added, N2O emissions from forested soil were 2.2 times those of cultivated soil at 70% WFPS. At 85 and 100% WFPS, N2O emissions were not significantly different despite much greater denitrification rates in the forested soil because N2O:N2 emission ratios declined more rapidly in forested soil as WFPS increased. These findings suggest that restoration of forested wetlands to reduce NO3 in surface discharge will not contribute significantly to the atmospheric burden of N2O. ?? Springer 2005.

  19. Changes in nitrogen cycling during the past century in a northern hardwood forest.

    PubMed

    McLauchlan, Kendra K; Craine, Joseph M; Oswald, W Wyatt; Leavitt, Peter R; Likens, Gene E

    2007-05-01

    Nitrogen (N) availability, defined here as the supply of N to terrestrial plants and soil microorganisms relative to their N demands, limits the productivity of many temperate zone forests and in part determines ecosystem carbon (C) content. Despite multidecadal monitoring of N in streams, the long-term record of N availability in forests of the northeastern United States is largely unknown. Therefore, although these forests have been receiving anthropogenic N deposition for the past few decades, it is still uncertain whether terrestrial N availability has changed during this time and, subsequently, whether forest ecosystems have responded to increased N deposition. Here, we used stable N isotopes in tree rings and lake sediments to demonstrate that N availability in a northeastern forest has declined over the past 75 years, likely because of ecosystem recovery from Euro-American land use. Forest N availability has only recently returned to levels forecast from presettlement trajectories, rendering the trajectory of future forest N cycling uncertain. Our results suggest that chronic disturbances caused by humans, especially logging and agriculture, are major drivers of terrestrial N cycling in forest ecosystems today, even a century after cessation. PMID:17446271

  20. Changes in nitrogen cycling during the past century in a northern hardwood forest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McLauchlan, K. K.; Craine, J. M.; Oswald, W. W.; Leavitt, P. R.; Likens, G. E.

    2007-12-01

    Nitrogen availability, defined here as the supply of nitrogen to terrestrial plants and soil microorganisms relative to their demands, limits the productivity of many temperate zone forests and in part determines ecosystem carbon content. Despite multidecadal monitoring of nitrogen in streams, the long-term record of nitrogen availability in forests of the northeastern United States is largely unknown. Therefore, although these forests have been receiving anthropogenic nitrogen deposition for the past few decades, it is still uncertain whether terrestrial nitrogen availability has changed during this time and subsequently whether forest ecosystems have responded to increased nitrogen deposition. Here, we reconstructed changes in vegetation and other ecosystem characteristics using a millennial-scale lacustrine sediment record and high-intensity sampling of wood from living trees in the watershed of Mirror Lake, New Hampshire, USA. In particular, we used stable nitrogen isotopes in wood and lacustrine sediments to demonstrate that nitrogen availability in a northeastern forest has declined over the past 75 years, likely due to ecosystem recovery from EuroAmerican land use. We determined a presettlement trajectory of ecosystem change, and found the forest nitrogen availability has only recently returned to levels forecast from these trajectories, rendering the trajectory of future forest nitrogen cycling uncertain. Our results suggest that chronic disturbances caused by humans, especially logging and agriculture, are major drivers of terrestrial nitrogen cycling in forest ecosystems today, even a century after cessation.