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Sample records for population-based lifetime modeling

  1. Universal Screening for Emotional and Behavioral Problems: Fitting a Population-Based Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schanding, G. Thomas, Jr.; Nowell, Kerri P.

    2013-01-01

    Schools have begun to adopt a population-based method to conceptualizing assessment and intervention of students; however, little empirical evidence has been gathered to support this shift in service delivery. The present study examined the fit of a population-based model in identifying students' behavioral and emotional functioning using a…

  2. Models for Battery Reliability and Lifetime

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, K.; Wood, E.; Santhanagopalan, S.; Kim, G. H.; Neubauer, J.; Pesaran, A.

    2014-03-01

    Models describing battery degradation physics are needed to more accurately understand how battery usage and next-generation battery designs can be optimized for performance and lifetime. Such lifetime models may also reduce the cost of battery aging experiments and shorten the time required to validate battery lifetime. Models for chemical degradation and mechanical stress are reviewed. Experimental analysis of aging data from a commercial iron-phosphate lithium-ion (Li-ion) cell elucidates the relative importance of several mechanical stress-induced degradation mechanisms.

  3. POPULATION-BASED EXPOSURE MODELING FOR AIR POLLUTANTS AT EPA'S NATIONAL EXPOSURE RESEARCH LABORATORY

    EPA Science Inventory

    The US EPA's National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) has been developing, applying, and evaluating population-based exposure models to improve our understanding of the variability in personal exposure to air pollutants. Estimates of population variability are needed for E...

  4. Population based models of cortical drug response: insights from anaesthesia

    PubMed Central

    Bojak, Ingo; Liley, David T. J.

    2008-01-01

    A great explanatory gap lies between the molecular pharmacology of psychoactive agents and the neurophysiological changes they induce, as recorded by neuroimaging modalities. Causally relating the cellular actions of psychoactive compounds to their influence on population activity is experimentally challenging. Recent developments in the dynamical modelling of neural tissue have attempted to span this explanatory gap between microscopic targets and their macroscopic neurophysiological effects via a range of biologically plausible dynamical models of cortical tissue. Such theoretical models allow exploration of neural dynamics, in particular their modification by drug action. The ability to theoretically bridge scales is due to a biologically plausible averaging of cortical tissue properties. In the resulting macroscopic neural field, individual neurons need not be explicitly represented (as in neural networks). The following paper aims to provide a non-technical introduction to the mean field population modelling of drug action and its recent successes in modelling anaesthesia. PMID:19003456

  5. The association between a lifetime history of a neck injury in a motor vehicle collision and future neck pain: a population-based cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Côté, Pierre; Cassidy, J. David; Carroll, Linda J.

    2010-01-01

    The objective of this population-based cohort study was to investigate the association between a lifetime history of neck injury from a motor vehicle collision and the development of troublesome neck pain. The current evidence suggests that individuals with a history of neck injury in a traffic collision are more likely to experience future neck pain. However, these results may suffer from residual confounding. Therefore, there is a need to test this association in a large population-based cohort with adequate control of known confounders. We formed a cohort of 919 randomly sampled Saskatchewan adults with no or mild neck pain in September 1995. At baseline, participants were asked if they ever injured their neck in a motor vehicle collision. Six and twelve months later, we asked about the presence of troublesome neck pain (grade II–IV) on the chronic pain grade questionnaire. Multivariable Cox regression was used to estimate the association between a lifetime history of neck injury in a motor vehicle collision and the onset of troublesome neck pain while controlling for known confounders. The follow-up rate was 73.5% (676/919) at 6 months and 63.1% (580/919) at 1 year. We found a positive association between a history of neck injury in a motor vehicle collision and the onset of troublesome neck pain after controlling for bodily pain and body mass index (adjusted HRR = 2.14; 95% CI 1.12–4.10). Our analysis suggests that a history of neck injury in a motor vehicle collision is a risk factor for developing future troublesome neck pain. The consequences of a neck injury in a motor vehicle collision can have long lasting effects and predispose individuals to experience recurrent episodes of neck pain. PMID:20213298

  6. Aging behavior and lifetime modeling for polycarbonate

    SciTech Connect

    Kahlen, S.; Wallner, G.M.; Lang, R.W.

    2010-05-15

    In this paper, polycarbonate (PC) as a material candidate for solar absorber applications is investigated as to the aging behavior at different temperatures in air and water. The aging conditioning was performed in air in the temperature range from 120 to 140 C and in water between 70 and 95 C. Tensile tests were performed on unaged and aged PC film specimens at ambient temperature using strain-to-break values as a performance indicator for the degree of aging. For PC the effect of aging was found to strongly depend on the aging conditions. Activation energy based lifetime prediction models according to various methods described in the literature were applied. The activation energies and corresponding lifetime predictions for the temperature range from 40 to 60 C in water and from 90 to 110 C in air derived from these models are compared and interpreted as to their practical relevance. (author)

  7. Validation of population-based disease simulation models: a review of concepts and methods

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Computer simulation models are used increasingly to support public health research and policy, but questions about their quality persist. The purpose of this article is to review the principles and methods for validation of population-based disease simulation models. Methods We developed a comprehensive framework for validating population-based chronic disease simulation models and used this framework in a review of published model validation guidelines. Based on the review, we formulated a set of recommendations for gathering evidence of model credibility. Results Evidence of model credibility derives from examining: 1) the process of model development, 2) the performance of a model, and 3) the quality of decisions based on the model. Many important issues in model validation are insufficiently addressed by current guidelines. These issues include a detailed evaluation of different data sources, graphical representation of models, computer programming, model calibration, between-model comparisons, sensitivity analysis, and predictive validity. The role of external data in model validation depends on the purpose of the model (e.g., decision analysis versus prediction). More research is needed on the methods of comparing the quality of decisions based on different models. Conclusion As the role of simulation modeling in population health is increasing and models are becoming more complex, there is a need for further improvements in model validation methodology and common standards for evaluating model credibility. PMID:21087466

  8. Heuristic Modeling for TRMM Lifetime Predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jordan, P. S.; Sharer, P. J.; DeFazio, R. L.

    1996-01-01

    Analysis time for computing the expected mission lifetimes of proposed frequently maneuvering, tightly altitude constrained, Earth orbiting spacecraft have been significantly reduced by means of a heuristic modeling method implemented in a commercial-off-the-shelf spreadsheet product (QuattroPro) running on a personal computer (PC). The method uses a look-up table to estimate the maneuver frequency per month as a function of the spacecraft ballistic coefficient and the solar flux index, then computes the associated fuel use by a simple engine model. Maneuver frequency data points are produced by means of a single 1-month run of traditional mission analysis software for each of the 12 to 25 data points required for the table. As the data point computations are required only a mission design start-up and on the occasion of significant mission redesigns, the dependence on time consuming traditional modeling methods is dramatically reduced. Results to date have agreed with traditional methods to within 1 to 1.5 percent. The spreadsheet approach is applicable to a wide variety of Earth orbiting spacecraft with tight altitude constraints. It will be particularly useful to such missions as the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission scheduled for launch in 1997, whose mission lifetime calculations are heavily dependent on frequently revised solar flux predictions.

  9. Models of population-based analyses for data collected from large extended families

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Elisa T.; Howard, Barbara V.; Fabsitz, Richard R.; Devereux, Richard B.; MacCluer, Jean W.; Laston, Sandra; Comuzzie, Anthony G.; Shara, Nawar M.; Welty, Thomas K.

    2014-01-01

    Large studies of extended families usually collect valuable phenotypic data that may have scientific value for purposes other than testing genetic hypotheses if the families were not selected in a biased manner. These purposes include assessing population-based associations of diseases with risk factors/covariates and estimating population characteristics such as disease prevalence and incidence. Relatedness among participants however, violates the traditional assumption of independent observations in these classic analyses. The commonly used adjustment method for relatedness in population-based analyses is to use marginal models, in which clusters (families) are assumed to be independent (unrelated) with a simple and identical covariance (family) structure such as those called independent, exchangeable and unstructured covariance structures. However, using these simple covariance structures may not be optimally appropriate for outcomes collected from large extended families, and may under- or over-estimate the variances of estimators and thus lead to uncertainty in inferences. Moreover, the assumption that families are unrelated with an identical family structure in a marginal model may not be satisfied for family studies with large extended families. The aim of this paper is to propose models incorporating marginal models approaches with a covariance structure for assessing population-based associations of diseases with their risk factors/covariates and estimating population characteristics for epidemiological studies while adjusting for the complicated relatedness among outcomes (continuous/categorical, normally/non-normally distributed) collected from large extended families. We also discuss theoretical issues of the proposed models and show that the proposed models and covariance structure are appropriate for and capable of achieving the aim. PMID:20882324

  10. Socioeconomic Status During Lifetime and Cognitive Impairment No-Dementia in Late Life: The Population-Based Aging in the Chianti Area (InCHIANTI) Study

    PubMed Central

    Marengoni, Alessandra; Fratiglioni, Laura; Bandinelli, Stefania; Ferrucci, Luigi

    2016-01-01

    Thousand and twelve dementia-free elderly (60–98 years old) enrolled in the In Chianti Study (Italy) were evaluated at baseline (1998–2000) and at 3-year follow-up (2001–2003) with the aim of analyzing the association of lifetime socioeconomic status (SES) with prevalent and incident cognitive impairment no-dementia (CIND). SES was defined from information on formal education, longest held occupation, and financial conditions through life. CIND was defined as age-adjusted Mini-Mental State Examination score one standard deviation below the baseline mean score of participants without dementia. Logistic regression and Cox proportional-hazards models were used to estimate the association of SES with CIND. Demographics, occupation characteristics (i.e., job stress and physical demand), cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype, smoking, alcohol consumption, depressive symptoms, and C-reactive protein were considered potential confounders. Prevalence of CIND was 17.7%. In the fully adjusted model, low education (OR = 2.1; 95% confidence intervals, CI = 1.4 to 3.2) was associated with prevalent CIND. Incidence rate of CIND was 66.0 per 1000 person-years. Low education (HR = 1.7; 95% CI = 1.04 to 2.6) and manual occupation (HR = 1.9; 95% CI =1.0 to 3.6) were associated with incident CIND. Among covariates, high job-related physical demand was associated with both prevalent and incident CIND (OR = 1.6; 95% CI = 1.1 to 2.4 and HR = 1.5; 95% CI = 1.0 to 2.3). After stratification for education, manual occupation was still associated with CIND among participants with high education (HR = 2.2; 95% CI = 1.2 to 4.3 versus HR = 1.4; 95% CI = 0.2 to 10.4 among those with low education). Proxy markers of lifetime SES (low education, manual occupation and high physical demand) are cross-sectional correlates of CIND and predict incident CIND over a three-year follow-up. PMID:21297261

  11. Scalable Entity-Based Modeling of Population-Based Systems, Final LDRD Report

    SciTech Connect

    Cleary, A J; Smith, S G; Vassilevska, T K; Jefferson, D R

    2005-01-27

    The goal of this project has been to develop tools, capabilities and expertise in the modeling of complex population-based systems via scalable entity-based modeling (EBM). Our initial focal application domain has been the dynamics of large populations exposed to disease-causing agents, a topic of interest to the Department of Homeland Security in the context of bioterrorism. In the academic community, discrete simulation technology based on individual entities has shown initial success, but the technology has not been scaled to the problem sizes or computational resources of LLNL. Our developmental emphasis has been on the extension of this technology to parallel computers and maturation of the technology from an academic to a lab setting.

  12. Comprehensive, Population-Based Sensitivity Analysis of a Two-Mass Vocal Fold Model.

    PubMed

    Robertson, Daniel; Zañartu, Matías; Cook, Douglas

    2016-01-01

    Previous vocal fold modeling studies have generally focused on generating detailed data regarding a narrow subset of possible model configurations. These studies can be interpreted to be the investigation of a single subject under one or more vocal conditions. In this study, a broad population-based sensitivity analysis is employed to examine the behavior of a virtual population of subjects and to identify trends between virtual individuals as opposed to investigating a single subject or model instance. Four different sensitivity analysis techniques were used in accomplishing this task. Influential relationships between model input parameters and model outputs were identified, and an exploration of the model's parameter space was conducted. Results indicate that the behavior of the selected two-mass model is largely dominated by complex interactions, and that few input-output pairs have a consistent effect on the model. Results from the analysis can be used to increase the efficiency of optimization routines of reduced-order models used to investigate voice abnormalities. Results also demonstrate the types of challenges and difficulties to be expected when applying sensitivity analyses to more complex vocal fold models. Such challenges are discussed and recommendations are made for future studies. PMID:26845452

  13. Comprehensive, Population-Based Sensitivity Analysis of a Two-Mass Vocal Fold Model

    PubMed Central

    Robertson, Daniel; Zañartu, Matías; Cook, Douglas

    2016-01-01

    Previous vocal fold modeling studies have generally focused on generating detailed data regarding a narrow subset of possible model configurations. These studies can be interpreted to be the investigation of a single subject under one or more vocal conditions. In this study, a broad population-based sensitivity analysis is employed to examine the behavior of a virtual population of subjects and to identify trends between virtual individuals as opposed to investigating a single subject or model instance. Four different sensitivity analysis techniques were used in accomplishing this task. Influential relationships between model input parameters and model outputs were identified, and an exploration of the model’s parameter space was conducted. Results indicate that the behavior of the selected two-mass model is largely dominated by complex interactions, and that few input-output pairs have a consistent effect on the model. Results from the analysis can be used to increase the efficiency of optimization routines of reduced-order models used to investigate voice abnormalities. Results also demonstrate the types of challenges and difficulties to be expected when applying sensitivity analyses to more complex vocal fold models. Such challenges are discussed and recommendations are made for future studies. PMID:26845452

  14. Toxicogenetics: population-based testing of drug and chemical safety in mouse models.

    PubMed

    Rusyn, Ivan; Gatti, Daniel M; Wiltshire, Timothy; Wilshire, Timothy; Kleeberger, Steven R; Threadgill, David W

    2010-08-01

    The rapid decline in the cost of dense genotyping is paving the way for new DNA sequence-based laboratory tests to move quickly into clinical practice, and to ultimately help realize the promise of 'personalized' therapies. These advances are based on the growing appreciation of genetics as an important dimension in science and the practice of investigative pharmacology and toxicology. On the clinical side, both the regulators and the pharmaceutical industry hope that the early identification of individuals prone to adverse drug effects will keep advantageous medicines on the market for the benefit of the vast majority of prospective patients. On the environmental health protection side, there is a clear need for better science to define the range and causes of susceptibility to adverse effects of chemicals in the population, so that the appropriate regulatory limits are established. In both cases, most of the research effort is focused on genome-wide association studies in humans where de novo genotyping of each subject is required. At the same time, the power of population-based preclinical safety testing in rodent models (e.g., mouse) remains to be fully exploited. Here, we highlight the approaches available to utilize the knowledge of DNA sequence and genetic diversity of the mouse as a species in mechanistic toxicology research. We posit that appropriate genetically defined mouse models may be combined with the limited data from human studies to not only discover the genetic determinants of susceptibility, but to also understand the molecular underpinnings of toxicity. PMID:20704464

  15. Predictive Models of Li-ion Battery Lifetime

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Kandler; Wood, Eric; Santhanagopalan, Shriram; Kim, Gi-heon; Shi, Ying; Pesaran, Ahmad

    2015-06-15

    It remains an open question how best to predict real-world battery lifetime based on accelerated calendar and cycle aging data from the laboratory. Multiple degradation mechanisms due to (electro)chemical, thermal, and mechanical coupled phenomena influence Li-ion battery lifetime, each with different dependence on time, cycling and thermal environment. The standardization of life predictive models would benefit the industry by reducing test time and streamlining development of system controls.

  16. Progress towards a PETN Lifetime Prediction Model

    SciTech Connect

    Burnham, A K; Overturf III, G E; Gee, R; Lewis, P; Qiu, R; Phillips, D; Weeks, B; Pitchimani, R; Maiti, A; Zepeda-Ruiz, L; Hrousis, C

    2006-09-11

    Dinegar (1) showed that decreases in PETN surface area causes EBW detonator function times to increase. Thermal aging causes PETN to agglomerate, shrink, and densify indicating a ''sintering'' process. It has long been a concern that the formation of a gap between the PETN and the bridgewire may lead to EBW detonator failure. These concerns have led us to develop a model to predict the rate of coarsening that occurs with age for thermally driven PETN powder (50% TMD). To understand PETN contributions to detonator aging we need three things: (1) Curves describing function time dependence on specific surface area, density, and gap. (2) A measurement of the critical gap distance for no fire as a function of density and surface area for various wire configurations. (3) A model describing how specific surface area, density and gap change with time and temperature. We've had good success modeling high temperature surface area reduction and function time increase using a phenomenological deceleratory kinetic model based on a distribution of parallel nth-order reactions having evenly spaced activation energies where weighing factors of the reactions follows a Gaussian distribution about the reaction with the mean activation energy (Figure 1). Unfortunately, the mean activation energy derived from this approach is high (typically {approx}75 kcal/mol) so that negligible sintering is predicted for temperatures below 40 C. To make more reliable predictions, we've established a three-part effort to understand PETN mobility. First, we've measured the rates of step movement and pit nucleation as a function of temperature from 30 to 50 C for single crystals. Second, we've measured the evaporation rate from single crystals and powders from 105 to 135 C to obtain an activation energy for evaporation. Third, we've pursued mechanistic kinetic modeling of surface mobility, evaporation, and ripening.

  17. Model selection and inference for censored lifetime medical expenditures.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Brent A; Long, Qi; Huang, Yijian; Chansky, Kari; Redman, Mary

    2016-09-01

    Identifying factors associated with increased medical cost is important for many micro- and macro-institutions, including the national economy and public health, insurers and the insured. However, assembling comprehensive national databases that include both the cost and individual-level predictors can prove challenging. Alternatively, one can use data from smaller studies with the understanding that conclusions drawn from such analyses may be limited to the participant population. At the same time, smaller clinical studies have limited follow-up and lifetime medical cost may not be fully observed for all study participants. In this context, we develop new model selection methods and inference procedures for secondary analyses of clinical trial data when lifetime medical cost is subject to induced censoring. Our model selection methods extend a theory of penalized estimating function to a calibration regression estimator tailored for this data type. Next, we develop a novel inference procedure for the unpenalized regression estimator using perturbation and resampling theory. Then, we extend this resampling plan to accommodate regularized coefficient estimation of censored lifetime medical cost and develop postselection inference procedures for the final model. Our methods are motivated by data from Southwest Oncology Group Protocol 9509, a clinical trial of patients with advanced nonsmall cell lung cancer, and our models of lifetime medical cost are specific to this population. But the methods presented in this article are built on rather general techniques and could be applied to larger databases as those data become available. PMID:26689300

  18. Predictive Models of Li-ion Battery Lifetime (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, K.; Wood, E.; Santhanagopalan, S.; Kim, G.; Shi, Y.; Pesaran, A.

    2014-09-01

    Predictive models of Li-ion battery reliability must consider a multiplicity of electrochemical, thermal and mechanical degradation modes experienced by batteries in application environments. Complicating matters, Li-ion batteries can experience several path dependent degradation trajectories dependent on storage and cycling history of the application environment. Rates of degradation are controlled by factors such as temperature history, electrochemical operating window, and charge/discharge rate. Lacking accurate models and tests, lifetime uncertainty must be absorbed by overdesign and warranty costs. Degradation models are needed that predict lifetime more accurately and with less test data. Models should also provide engineering feedback for next generation battery designs. This presentation reviews both multi-dimensional physical models and simpler, lumped surrogate models of battery electrochemical and mechanical degradation. Models are compared with cell- and pack-level aging data from commercial Li-ion chemistries. The analysis elucidates the relative importance of electrochemical and mechanical stress-induced degradation mechanisms in real-world operating environments. Opportunities for extending the lifetime of commercial battery systems are explored.

  19. Implications of model bias in carbon monoxide for methane lifetime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strode, S. A.; Duncan, B. N.; Yegorova, E. A.; Kouatchou, J.; Ziemke, J. R.; Douglass, A. R.

    2015-07-01

    A low bias in carbon monoxide (CO) at high northern latitudes is a common feature of chemistry climate models (CCMs) that may indicate or contribute to a high bias in simulated OH and corresponding low bias in methane lifetime. We use simulations with CO tagged by source type to investigate the sensitivity of the CO bias to CO emissions, global mean OH, and the hemispheric asymmetry of OH. Our results show that reducing the hemispheric asymmetry of OH improves the agreement of simulated CO with observations. We use simulations with parameterized OH to quantify the impact of known model biases on simulated OH. Removing biases in ozone and water vapor as well as reducing Northern Hemisphere NOx does not remove the hemispheric asymmetry in OH, but brings the simulated methyl chloroform lifetime into agreement with observation-based estimates.

  20. Simulation of Population-Based Commuter Exposure to NO2 Using Different Air Pollution Models

    PubMed Central

    Ragettli, Martina S.; Tsai, Ming-Yi; Braun-Fahrländer, Charlotte; de Nazelle, Audrey; Schindler, Christian; Ineichen, Alex; Ducret-Stich, Regina E.; Perez, Laura; Probst-Hensch, Nicole; Künzli, Nino; Phuleria, Harish C.

    2014-01-01

    We simulated commuter routes and long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution during commute in a representative population sample in Basel (Switzerland), and evaluated three air pollution models with different spatial resolution for estimating commute exposures to nitrogen dioxide (NO2) as a marker of long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution. Our approach includes spatially and temporally resolved data on actual commuter routes, travel modes and three air pollution models. Annual mean NO2 commuter exposures were similar between models. However, we found more within-city and within-subject variability in annual mean (±SD) NO2 commuter exposure with a high resolution dispersion model (40 ± 7 µg m−3, range: 21–61) than with a dispersion model with a lower resolution (39 ± 5 µg m−3; range: 24–51), and a land use regression model (41 ± 5 µg m−3; range: 24–54). Highest median cumulative exposures were calculated along motorized transport and bicycle routes, and the lowest for walking. For estimating commuter exposure within a city and being interested also in small-scale variability between roads, a model with a high resolution is recommended. For larger scale epidemiological health assessment studies, models with a coarser spatial resolution are likely sufficient, especially when study areas include suburban and rural areas. PMID:24823664

  1. Simulation of population-based commuter exposure to NO₂ using different air pollution models.

    PubMed

    Ragettli, Martina S; Tsai, Ming-Yi; Braun-Fahrländer, Charlotte; de Nazelle, Audrey; Schindler, Christian; Ineichen, Alex; Ducret-Stich, Regina E; Perez, Laura; Probst-Hensch, Nicole; Künzli, Nino; Phuleria, Harish C

    2014-05-01

    We simulated commuter routes and long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution during commute in a representative population sample in Basel (Switzerland), and evaluated three air pollution models with different spatial resolution for estimating commute exposures to nitrogen dioxide (NO2) as a marker of long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution. Our approach includes spatially and temporally resolved data on actual commuter routes, travel modes and three air pollution models. Annual mean NO2 commuter exposures were similar between models. However, we found more within-city and within-subject variability in annual mean (±SD) NO2 commuter exposure with a high resolution dispersion model (40 ± 7 µg m(-3), range: 21-61) than with a dispersion model with a lower resolution (39 ± 5 µg m(-3); range: 24-51), and a land use regression model (41 ± 5 µg m(-3); range: 24-54). Highest median cumulative exposures were calculated along motorized transport and bicycle routes, and the lowest for walking. For estimating commuter exposure within a city and being interested also in small-scale variability between roads, a model with a high resolution is recommended. For larger scale epidemiological health assessment studies, models with a coarser spatial resolution are likely sufficient, especially when study areas include suburban and rural areas. PMID:24823664

  2. Evaluation of a spatially resolved forest fire smoke model for population-based epidemiologic exposure assessment.

    PubMed

    Yao, Jiayun; Eyamie, Jeff; Henderson, Sarah B

    2016-05-01

    Exposure to forest fire smoke (FFS) is associated with multiple adverse health effects, mostly respiratory. Findings for cardiovascular effects have been inconsistent, possibly related to the limitations of conventional methods to assess FFS exposure. In previous work, we developed an empirical model to estimate smoke-related fine particulate matter (PM2.5) for all populated areas in British Columbia (BC), Canada. Here, we evaluate the utility of our model by comparing epidemiologic associations between modeled and measured PM2.5. For each local health area (LHA), we used Poisson regression to estimate the effects of PM2.5 estimates and measurements on counts of medication dispensations and outpatient physician visits. We then used meta-regression to estimate the overall effects. A 10 μg/m(3) increase in modeled PM2.5 was associated with increased sabutamol dispensations (RR=1.04, 95% CI 1.03-1.06), and physician visits for asthma (1.06, 1.04-1.08), COPD (1.02, 1.00-1.03), lower respiratory infections (1.03, 1.00-1.05), and otitis media (1.05, 1.03-1.07), all comparable to measured PM2.5. Effects on cardiovascular outcomes were only significant using model estimates in all LHAs during extreme fire days. This suggests that the exposure model is a promising tool for increasing the power of epidemiologic studies to detect the health effects of FFS via improved spatial coverage and resolution. PMID:25294305

  3. The adverse effect of spasticity on 3-month poststroke outcome using a population-based model.

    PubMed

    Belagaje, S R; Lindsell, C; Moomaw, C J; Alwell, K; Flaherty, M L; Woo, D; Dunning, K; Khatri, P; Adeoye, O; Kleindorfer, D; Broderick, J; Kissela, B

    2014-01-01

    Several devices and medications have been used to address poststroke spasticity. Yet, spasticity's impact on outcomes remains controversial. Using data from a cohort of 460 ischemic stroke patients, we previously published a validated multivariable regression model for predicting 3-month modified Rankin Score (mRS) as an indicator of functional outcome. Here, we tested whether including spasticity improved model fit and estimated the effect spasticity had on the outcome. Spasticity was defined by a positive response to the question "Did you have spasticity following your stroke?" on direct interview at 3 months from stroke onset. Patients who had expired by 90 days (n = 30) or did not have spasticity data available (n = 102) were excluded. Spasticity affected the 3-month functional status (β = 0.420, 95 CI = 0.194 to 0.645) after accounting for age, diabetes, leukoaraiosis, and retrospective NIHSS. Using spasticity as a covariable, the model's R (2) changed from 0.599 to 0.622. In our model, the presence of spasticity in the cohort was associated with a worsened 3-month mRS by an average of 0.4 after adjusting for known covariables. This significant adverse effect on functional outcomes adds predictive value beyond previously established factors. PMID:25147752

  4. The Adverse Effect of Spasticity on 3-Month Poststroke Outcome Using a Population-Based Model

    PubMed Central

    Belagaje, S. R.; Lindsell, C.; Moomaw, C. J.; Alwell, K.; Flaherty, M. L.; Woo, D.; Dunning, K.; Khatri, P.; Adeoye, O.; Kleindorfer, D.; Broderick, J.; Kissela, B.

    2014-01-01

    Several devices and medications have been used to address poststroke spasticity. Yet, spasticity's impact on outcomes remains controversial. Using data from a cohort of 460 ischemic stroke patients, we previously published a validated multivariable regression model for predicting 3-month modified Rankin Score (mRS) as an indicator of functional outcome. Here, we tested whether including spasticity improved model fit and estimated the effect spasticity had on the outcome. Spasticity was defined by a positive response to the question “Did you have spasticity following your stroke?” on direct interview at 3 months from stroke onset. Patients who had expired by 90 days (n = 30) or did not have spasticity data available (n = 102) were excluded. Spasticity affected the 3-month functional status (β = 0.420, 95 CI = 0.194 to 0.645) after accounting for age, diabetes, leukoaraiosis, and retrospective NIHSS. Using spasticity as a covariable, the model's R2 changed from 0.599 to 0.622. In our model, the presence of spasticity in the cohort was associated with a worsened 3-month mRS by an average of 0.4 after adjusting for known covariables. This significant adverse effect on functional outcomes adds predictive value beyond previously established factors. PMID:25147752

  5. Validation and extension of the PREMM1,2 model in a population-based cohort of colorectal cancer patients

    PubMed Central

    Balaguer, Francesc; Balmaña, Judith; Castellví-Bel, Sergi; Steyerberg, Ewout W.; Andreu, Montserrat; Llor, Xavier; Jover, Rodrigo; Syngal, Sapna; Castells, Antoni

    2008-01-01

    Summary Background and aims Early recognition of patients at risk for Lynch syndrome is critical but often difficult. Recently, a predictive algorithm -the PREMM1,2 model- has been developed to quantify the risk of carrying a germline mutation in the mismatch repair (MMR) genes, MLH1 and MSH2. However, its performance in an unselected, population-based colorectal cancer population as well as its performance in combination with tumor MMR testing are unknown. Methods We included all colorectal cancer cases from the EPICOLON study, a prospective, multicenter, population-based cohort (n=1,222). All patients underwent tumor microsatellite instability analysis and immunostaining for MLH1 and MSH2, and those with MMR deficiency (n=91) underwent tumor BRAF V600E mutation analysis and MLH1/MSH2 germline testing. Results The PREMM1,2 model with a ≥5% cut-off had a sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value (PPV) of 100%, 68% and 2%, respectively. The use of a higher PREMM1,2 cut-off provided a higher specificity and PPV, at expense of a lower sensitivity. The combination of a ≥5% cut-off with tumor MMR testing maintained 100% sensitivity with an increased specificity (97%) and PPV (21%). The PPV of a PREMM1,2 score ≥20% alone (16%) approached the PPV obtained with PREMM1,2 score ≥5% combined with tumor MMR testing. In addition, a PREMM1,2 score of <5% was associated with a high likelihood of a BRAF V600E mutation. Conclusions The PREMM1,2 model is useful to identify MLH1/MSH2 mutation carriers among unselected colorectal cancer patients. Quantitative assessment of the genetic risk might be useful to decide on subsequent tumor MMR and germline testing. PMID:18061181

  6. Mathematical model for adaptive evolution of populations based on a complex domain

    PubMed Central

    Ibrahim, Rabha W.; Ahmad, M.Z.; Al-Janaby, Hiba F.

    2015-01-01

    A mutation is ultimately essential for adaptive evolution in all populations. It arises all the time, but is mostly fixed by enzymes. Further, most do consider that the evolution mechanism is by a natural assortment of variations in organisms in line for random variations in their DNA, and the suggestions for this are overwhelming. The altering of the construction of a gene, causing a different form that may be communicated to succeeding generations, produced by the modification of single base units in DNA, or the deletion, insertion, or rearrangement of larger units of chromosomes or genes. This altering is called a mutation. In this paper, a mathematical model is introduced to this reality. The model describes the time and space for the evolution. The tool is based on a complex domain for the space. We show that the evolution is distributed with the hypergeometric function. The Boundedness of the evolution is imposed by utilizing the Koebe function. PMID:26858564

  7. Peristomal Skin Complications Are Common, Expensive, and Difficult to Manage: A Population Based Cost Modeling Study

    PubMed Central

    Meisner, Søren; Lehur, Paul-Antoine; Moran, Brendan; Martins, Lina; Jemec, Gregor Borut Ernst

    2012-01-01

    Background Peristomal skin complications (PSCs) are the most common post-operative complications following creation of a stoma. Living with a stoma is a challenge, not only for the patient and their carers, but also for society as a whole. Due to methodological problems of PSC assessment, the associated health-economic burden of medium to longterm complications has been poorly described. Aim The aim of the present study was to create a model to estimate treatment costs of PSCs using the standardized assessment Ostomy Skin Tool as a reference. The resultant model was applied to a real-life global data set of stoma patients (n = 3017) to determine the prevalence and financial burden of PSCs. Methods Eleven experienced stoma care nurses were interviewed to get a global understanding of a treatment algorithm that formed the basis of the cost analysis. The estimated costs were based on a seven week treatment period. PSC costs were estimated for five underlying diagnostic categories and three levels of severity. The estimated treatment costs of severe cases of PSCs were increased 2–5 fold for the different diagnostic categories of PSCs compared with mild cases. French unit costs were applied to the global data set. Results The estimated total average cost for a seven week treatment period (including appliances and accessories) was 263€ for those with PSCs (n = 1742) compared to 215€ for those without PSCs (n = 1172). A co-variance analysis showed that leakage level had a significant impact on PSC cost from ‘rarely/never’ to ‘always/often’ p<0.00001 and from ‘rarely/never’ to ‘sometimes’ p = 0.0115. Conclusion PSCs are common and troublesome and the consequences are substantial, both for the patient and from a health economic viewpoint. PSCs should be diagnosed and treated at an early stage to prevent long term, debilitating and expensive complications. PMID:22679479

  8. Analysis of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis as a multistep process: a population-based modelling study

    PubMed Central

    Al-Chalabi, Ammar; Calvo, Andrea; Chio, Adriano; Colville, Shuna; Ellis, Cathy M; Hardiman, Orla; Heverin, Mark; Howard, Robin S; Huisman, Mark H B; Keren, Noa; Leigh, P Nigel; Mazzini, Letizia; Mora, Gabriele; Orrell, Richard W; Rooney, James; Scott, Kirsten M; Scotton, William J; Seelen, Meinie; Shaw, Christopher E; Sidle, Katie S; Swingler, Robert; Tsuda, Miho; Veldink, Jan H; Visser, Anne E; van den Berg, Leonard H; Pearce, Neil

    2014-01-01

    Summary Background Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis shares characteristics with some cancers, such as onset being more common in later life, progression usually being rapid, the disease affecting a particular cell type, and showing complex inheritance. We used a model originally applied to cancer epidemiology to investigate the hypothesis that amyotrophic lateral sclerosis is a multistep process. Methods We generated incidence data by age and sex from amyotrophic lateral sclerosis population registers in Ireland (registration dates 1995–2012), the Netherlands (2006–12), Italy (1995–2004), Scotland (1989–98), and England (2002–09), and calculated age and sex-adjusted incidences for each register. We regressed the log of age-specific incidence against the log of age with least squares regression. We did the analyses within each register, and also did a combined analysis, adjusting for register. Findings We identified 6274 cases of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis from a catchment population of about 34 million people. We noted a linear relationship between log incidence and log age in all five registers: England r2=0·95, Ireland r2=0·99, Italy r2=0·95, the Netherlands r2=0·99, and Scotland r2=0·97; overall r2=0·99. All five registers gave similar estimates of the linear slope ranging from 4·5 to 5·1, with overlapping confidence intervals. The combination of all five registers gave an overall slope of 4·8 (95% CI 4·5–5·0), with similar estimates for men (4·6, 4·3–4·9) and women (5·0, 4·5–5·5). Interpretation A linear relationship between the log incidence and log age of onset of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis is consistent with a multistage model of disease. The slope estimate suggests that amyotrophic lateral sclerosis is a six-step process. Identification of these steps could lead to preventive and therapeutic avenues. Funding UK Medical Research Council; UK Economic and Social Research Council; Ireland Health Research Board; The

  9. Lifetime pharmacokinetic model for hydrophobic contaminants in marine mammals

    SciTech Connect

    Hickie, B.E.; Mackay, D.; Koning, J. de

    1999-11-01

    A physiologically based pharmacokinetic model is developed that describes the uptake and release of a hydrophobic organic chemical by a marine mammal over its entire lifetime, i.e., from birth to death. This model is applied to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in the beluga whale (Delphinapterus leucas). The processes treated are growth; uptake from food, milk, and air; disposition of the chemical among arterial and venous blood, liver, muscle, blubber, and rapidly perfused tissues; and losses by metabolism, release in exhaled air; and by egestion. A separate model is developed for females, which includes pregnancy, birth, and lactation. Food consumption is deduced from size, growth, and from activity-dependent bioenergetic data. The results obtained by simulating continuous PCB exposure over a 30-year period are in accordance with reported concentrations and show the importance of milk transfer to both mother and progeny and the tendency for continued accumulation over the animal's lifetime. Implications of the results are discussed, especially the need for improved data on diets, gut absorption characteristics, and various physiological parameters used in the model.

  10. A Results-Based Logic Model for Primary Healthcare: A Conceptual Foundation for Population-Based Information Systems

    PubMed Central

    Watson, Diane E.; Broemeling, Anne-Marie; Wong, Sabrina T.

    2009-01-01

    A conceptual framework for population-based information systems is needed if these data are to be created and used to generate information to support healthcare policy, management and practice communities that seek to improve quality and account for progress in primary healthcare (PHC) renewal. This paper describes work conducted in British Columbia since 2003 to (1) create a Results-Based Logic Model for PHC using the approach of the Treasury Board of Canada in designing management and accountability frameworks, together with a literature review, policy analysis and broad consultation with approximately 650 people, (2) identify priorities for information within that logic model, (3) use the logic model and priorities within it to implement performance measurement and research and (4) identify how information systems need to be structured to assess the impact of variation or change in PHC inputs, activities and outputs on patient, population and healthcare system outcomes. The resulting logic model distinguishes among outcomes for which the PHC sector should be held more or less accountable. PMID:21037902

  11. LCP- LIFETIME COST AND PERFORMANCE MODEL FOR DISTRIBUTED PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Borden, C. S.

    1994-01-01

    The Lifetime Cost and Performance (LCP) Model was developed to assist in the assessment of Photovoltaic (PV) system design options. LCP is a simulation of the performance, cost, and revenue streams associated with distributed PV power systems. LCP provides the user with substantial flexibility in specifying the technical and economic environment of the PV application. User-specified input parameters are available to describe PV system characteristics, site climatic conditions, utility purchase and sellback rate structures, discount and escalation rates, construction timing, and lifetime of the system. Such details as PV array orientation and tilt angle, PV module and balance-of-system performance attributes, and the mode of utility interconnection are user-specified. LCP assumes that the distributed PV system is utility grid interactive without dedicated electrical storage. In combination with a suitable economic model, LCP can provide an estimate of the expected net present worth of a PV system to the owner, as compared to electricity purchased from a utility grid. Similarly, LCP might be used to perform sensitivity analyses to identify those PV system parameters having significant impact on net worth. The user describes the PV system configuration to LCP via the basic electrical components. The module is the smallest entity in the PV system which is modeled. A PV module is defined in the simulation by its short circuit current, which varies over the system lifetime due to degradation and failure. Modules are wired in series to form a branch circuit. Bypass diodes are allowed between modules in the branch circuits. Branch circuits are then connected in parallel to form a bus. A collection of buses is connected in parallel to form an increment to capacity of the system. By choosing the appropriate series-parallel wiring design, the user can specify the current, voltage, and reliability characteristics of the system. LCP simulation of system performance is site

  12. Atmospheric drag model calibrations for spacecraft lifetime prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Binebrink, A. L.; Radomski, M. S.; Samii, M. V.

    1989-01-01

    Although solar activity prediction uncertainty normally dominates decay prediction error budget for near-Earth spacecraft, the effect of drag force modeling errors for given levels of solar activity needs to be considered. Two atmospheric density models, the modified Harris-Priester model and the Jacchia-Roberts model, to reproduce the decay histories of the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME) and Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) spacecraft in the 490- to 540-kilometer altitude range were analyzed. Historical solar activity data were used in the input to the density computations. For each spacecraft and atmospheric model, a drag scaling adjustment factor was determined for a high-solar-activity year, such that the observed annual decay in the mean semimajor axis was reproduced by an averaged variation-of-parameters (VOP) orbit propagation. The SME (SMM) calibration was performed using calendar year 1983 (1982). The resulting calibration factors differ by 20 to 40 percent from the predictions of the prelaunch ballistic coefficients. The orbit propagations for each spacecraft were extended to the middle of 1988 using the calibrated drag models. For the Jaccia-Roberts density model, the observed decay in the mean semimajor axis of SME (SMM) over the 4.5-year (5.5-year) predictive period was reproduced to within 1.5 (4.4) percent. The corresponding figure for the Harris-Priester model was 8.6 (20.6) percent. Detailed results and conclusions regarding the importance of accurate drag force modeling for lifetime predictions are presented.

  13. LIFETIME PREDICTION FOR MODEL 9975 O-RINGS IN KAMS

    SciTech Connect

    Hoffman, E.; Skidmore, E.

    2009-11-24

    The Savannah River Site (SRS) is currently storing plutonium materials in the K-Area Materials Storage (KAMS) facility. The materials are packaged per the DOE 3013 Standard and transported and stored in KAMS in Model 9975 shipping packages, which include double containment vessels sealed with dual O-rings made of Parker Seals compound V0835-75 (based on Viton{reg_sign} GLT). The outer O-ring of each containment vessel is credited for leaktight containment per ANSI N14.5. O-ring service life depends on many factors, including the failure criterion, environmental conditions, overall design, fabrication quality and assembly practices. A preliminary life prediction model has been developed for the V0835-75 O-rings in KAMS. The conservative model is based primarily on long-term compression stress relaxation (CSR) experiments and Arrhenius accelerated-aging methodology. For model development purposes, seal lifetime is defined as a 90% loss of measurable sealing force. Thus far, CSR experiments have only reached this target level of degradation at temperatures {ge} 300 F. At lower temperatures, relaxation values are more tolerable. Using time-temperature superposition principles, the conservative model predicts a service life of approximately 20-25 years at a constant seal temperature of 175 F. This represents a maximum payload package at a constant ambient temperature of 104 F, the highest recorded in KAMS to date. This is considered a highly conservative value as such ambient temperatures are only reached on occasion and for short durations. The presence of fiberboard in the package minimizes the impact of such temperature swings, with many hours to several days required for seal temperatures to respond proportionately. At 85 F ambient, a more realistic but still conservative value, bounding seal temperatures are reduced to {approx}158 F, with an estimated seal lifetime of {approx}35-45 years. The actual service life for O-rings in a maximum wattage package likely lies

  14. Personalized Prediction of Lifetime Benefits with Statin Therapy for Asymptomatic Individuals: A Modeling Study

    PubMed Central

    Ferket, Bart S.; van Kempen, Bob J. H.; Heeringa, Jan; Spronk, Sandra; Fleischmann, Kirsten E.; Nijhuis, Rogier L. G.; Hofman, Albert; Steyerberg, Ewout W.; Hunink, M. G. Myriam

    2012-01-01

    Background Physicians need to inform asymptomatic individuals about personalized outcomes of statin therapy for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, current prediction models focus on short-term outcomes and ignore the competing risk of death due to other causes. We aimed to predict the potential lifetime benefits with statin therapy, taking into account competing risks. Methods and Findings A microsimulation model based on 5-y follow-up data from the Rotterdam Study, a population-based cohort of individuals aged 55 y and older living in the Ommoord district of Rotterdam, the Netherlands, was used to estimate lifetime outcomes with and without statin therapy. The model was validated in-sample using 10-y follow-up data. We used baseline variables and model output to construct (1) a web-based calculator for gains in total and CVD-free life expectancy and (2) color charts for comparing these gains to the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) charts. In 2,428 participants (mean age 67.7 y, 35.5% men), statin therapy increased total life expectancy by 0.3 y (SD 0.2) and CVD-free life expectancy by 0.7 y (SD 0.4). Age, sex, smoking, blood pressure, hypertension, lipids, diabetes, glucose, body mass index, waist-to-hip ratio, and creatinine were included in the calculator. Gains in total and CVD-free life expectancy increased with blood pressure, unfavorable lipid levels, and body mass index after multivariable adjustment. Gains decreased considerably with advancing age, while SCORE 10-y CVD mortality risk increased with age. Twenty-five percent of participants with a low SCORE risk achieved equal or larger gains in CVD-free life expectancy than the median gain in participants with a high SCORE risk. Conclusions We developed tools to predict personalized increases in total and CVD-free life expectancy with statin therapy. The predicted gains we found are small. If the underlying model is validated in an independent cohort, the tools may be

  15. A Simple Population-Based Finite Element Model Eliminates the Need for Patient-Specific Models to Predict Instability of the Shoulder

    PubMed Central

    Jones, Morgan H.; Walia, Piyush; Fening, Stephen D.; Miniaci, Anthony

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: Recurrent shoulder instability can significantly increase in the presence of bony Bankart and Hill-Sachs lesions. Therefore, it is important to understand the changes in shoulder biomechanics due to bony defects. Limitations of using cadaveric model to investigate the effects of combined bony defects on shoulder instability is inability to test all combination in a single specimen. Utilizing the flexibility of computational methodology like finite element (FE) model provides the advantage of testing all combinations at multiple arm positions. The aim of this study was to develop a simple FE model of combined bony lesions and its effect on anterior shoulder instability. In addition, we wanted to determine the need for patient (specimen) specific modeling. We hypothesized that the shoulder instability would be similar for all three models (population-based model, specimen-specific model, and cadaveric model). Methods: Three specimens were randomly selected from specimens tested in our previous study and Computed Tomography (CT) arthrogram images were taken before and after experimentation to develop FE models. We also developed a simple population-based model representing a spherical humeral head, which was developed using the radii values for cartilage and bone from literature. The sizes of humeral head lesions chosen were: 6%, 19%, 31%, and 44% of humeral head diameter and glenoid defect sizes were 10%, 20% and 30% of the glenoid width. All simulations were performed at glenohumeral abduction angles (ABD) of 20°, 40°, and 60° and external rotation of 0°, 40°, and 80°. Each simulation comprised of translating the humeral head leading to an anterior dislocation under a constant 50 N medial load. This compressive load simulated the static load of soft tissue. The percent intact translation (%IT) was computed by normalizing the distance to dislocation value for each defect condition w.r.t intact condition of each specimen. Stability Ratio (SR) was

  16. Recording Lifetime Behavior and Movement in an Invertebrate Model

    PubMed Central

    Zou, Sige; Liedo, Pablo; Altamirano-Robles, Leopoldo; Cruz-Enriquez, Janeth; Morice, Amy; Ingram, Donald K.; Kaub, Kevin; Papadopoulos, Nikos; Carey, James R.

    2011-01-01

    Characterization of lifetime behavioral changes is essential for understanding aging and aging-related diseases. However, such studies are scarce partly due to the lack of efficient tools. Here we describe and provide proof of concept for a stereo vision system that classifies and sequentially records at an extremely fine scale six different behaviors (resting, micro-movement, walking, flying, feeding and drinking) and the within-cage (3D) location of individual tephritid fruit flies by time-of-day throughout their lives. Using flies fed on two different diets, full sugar-yeast and sugar-only diets, we report for the first time their behavioral changes throughout their lives at a high resolution. We have found that the daily activity peaks at the age of 15–20 days and then gradually declines with age for flies on both diets. However, the overall daily activity is higher for flies on sugar-only diet than those on the full diet. Flies on sugar-only diet show a stronger diurnal localization pattern with higher preference to staying on the top of the cage during the period of light-off when compared to flies on the full diet. Clustering analyses of age-specific behavior patterns reveal three distinct young, middle-aged and old clusters for flies on each of the two diets. The middle-aged groups for flies on sugar-only diet consist of much younger age groups when compared to flies on full diet. This technology provides research opportunities for using a behavioral informatics approach for understanding different ways in which behavior, movement, and aging in model organisms are mutually affecting. PMID:21559058

  17. Stratospheric lifetime ratio of CFC-11 and CFC-12 from satellite and model climatologies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoffmann, L.; Hoppe, C. M.; Müller, R.; Dutton, G. S.; Gille, J. C.; Griessbach, S.; Jones, A.; Meyer, C. I.; Spang, R.; Volk, C. M.; Walker, K. A.

    2014-11-01

    Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) play a key role in stratospheric ozone loss and are strong infrared absorbers that contribute to global warming. The stratospheric lifetimes of CFCs are a measure of their stratospheric loss rates that are needed to determine global warming and ozone depletion potentials. We applied the tracer-tracer correlation approach to zonal mean climatologies from satellite measurements and model data to assess the lifetimes of CFCl3 (CFC-11) and CF2Cl2 (CFC-12). We present estimates of the CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio and the absolute lifetime of CFC-12, based on a reference lifetime of 52 years for CFC-11. We analyzed climatologies from three satellite missions, the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS), the HIgh Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS), and the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS). We found a CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio of 0.47±0.08 and a CFC-12 lifetime of 112(96-133) years for ACE-FTS, a ratio of 0.46±0.07 and a lifetime of 113(97-134) years for HIRDLS, and a ratio of 0.46±0.08 and a lifetime of 114(98-136) years for MIPAS. The error-weighted, combined CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio is 0.46±0.04 and the CFC-12 lifetime estimate is 113(103-124) years. These results agree with the recent Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) reassessment, which recommends lifetimes of 52(43-67) years and 102(88-122) years, respectively. Having smaller uncertainties than the results from other recent studies, our estimates can help to better constrain CFC-11 and CFC-12 lifetime recommendations in future scientific studies and assessments. Furthermore, the satellite observations were used to validate first simulation results from a new coupled model system, which integrates a Lagrangian chemistry transport model into a climate model. For the coupled model we found a CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio of 0.48±0.07 and a CFC-12 lifetime of 110(95-129) years

  18. Stratospheric lifetime ratio of CFC-11 and CFC-12 from satellite and model climatologies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoffmann, L.; Hoppe, C. M.; Müller, R.; Dutton, G. S.; Gille, J. C.; Griessbach, S.; Jones, A.; Meyer, C. I.; Spang, R.; Volk, C. M.; Walker, K. A.

    2014-06-01

    Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) play a key role in stratospheric ozone loss and are strong infrared absorbers that contribute to global warming. The stratospheric lifetimes of CFCs are a measure of their global loss rates that are needed to determine global warming and ozone depletion potentials. We applied the tracer-tracer correlation approach to zonal mean climatologies from satellite measurements and model data to assess the lifetimes of CFCl3 (CFC-11) and CF2Cl2 (CFC-12). We present estimates of the CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio and the absolute lifetime of CFC-12, based on a reference lifetime of 52 yr for CFC-11. We analyzed climatologies from three satellite missions, the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS), the HIgh Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS), and the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS). We found a CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio of 0.47±0.08 and a CFC-12 lifetime of 111(96-132) yr for ACE-FTS, a ratio of 0.46±0.07 and a lifetime of 112(97-133) yr for HIRDLS, and a ratio of 0.46±0.08 and a lifetime of 112(96-135) yr for MIPAS. The error-weighted, combined CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio is 0.47±0.04 and the CFC-12 lifetime estimate is 112(102-123) yr. These results agree with the recent Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) reassessment, which recommends lifetimes of 52(43-67) yr and 102(88-122) yr, respectively. Having smaller uncertainties than the results from other recent studies, our estimates can help to better constrain CFC-11 and CFC-12 lifetime recommendations in future scientific studies and assessments. Furthermore, the satellite observations were used to validate first simulation results from a new coupled model system, which integrates a Lagrangian chemistry transport model into a climate model. For the coupled model we found a CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio of 0.48±0.07 and a CFC-12 lifetime of 110(95-129) yr, based on a ten-year perpetual

  19. Semiautomatic bladder segmentation on CBCT using a population-based model for multiple-plan ART of bladder cancer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chai, Xiangfei; van Herk, Marcel; Betgen, Anja; Hulshof, Maarten; Bel, Arjan

    2012-12-01

    The aim of this study is to develop a novel semiautomatic bladder segmentation approach for selecting the appropriate plan from the library of plans for a multiple-plan adaptive radiotherapy (ART) procedure. A population-based statistical bladder model was first built from a training data set (95 bladder contours from 8 patients). This model was then used as constraint to segment the bladder in an independent validation data set (233 CBCT scans from the remaining 22 patients). All 3D bladder contours were converted into parametric surface representations using spherical harmonic expansion. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied in the spherical harmonic-based shape parameter space to calculate the major variation of bladder shapes. The number of dominating PCA modes was chosen such that 95% of the total shape variation of the training data set was described. The automatic segmentation started from the bladder contour of the planning CT of each patient, which was modified by changing the weight of each PCA mode. As a result, the segmentation contour was deformed consistently with the training set to best fit the bladder boundary in the localization CBCT image. A cost function was defined to measure the goodness of fit of the segmentation on the localization CBCT image. The segmentation was obtained by minimizing this cost function using a simplex optimizer. After automatic segmentation, a fast manual correction method was provided to correct those bladders (parts) that were poorly segmented. Volume- and distance-based metrics and the accuracy of plan selection from multiple plans were evaluated to quantify the performance of the automatic and semiautomatic segmentation methods. For the training data set, only seven PCA modes were needed to represent 95% of the bladder shape variation. The mean CI overlap and residual error (SD) of automatic bladder segmentation over all of the validation data were 70.5% and 0.39 cm, respectively. The agreement of plan

  20. Advanced Models and Controls for Prediction and Extension of Battery Lifetime (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, K.; Wood, E.; Santhanagopalan, S.; Kim, G.; Pesaran, A.

    2014-02-01

    Predictive models of capacity and power fade must consider a multiplicity of degradation modes experienced by Li-ion batteries in the automotive environment. Lacking accurate models and tests, lifetime uncertainty must presently be absorbed by overdesign and excess warranty costs. To reduce these costs and extend life, degradation models are under development that predict lifetime more accurately and with less test data. The lifetime models provide engineering feedback for cell, pack and system designs and are being incorporated into real-time control strategies.

  1. Lifetime of double occupancies in the Fermi-Hubbard model

    SciTech Connect

    Sensarma, Rajdeep; Pekker, David; Demler, Eugene; Altman, Ehud; Strohmaier, Niels; Moritz, Henning; Greif, Daniel; Joerdens, Robert; Tarruell, Leticia; Esslinger, Tilman

    2010-12-01

    We investigate the decay of artificially created double occupancies in a repulsive Fermi-Hubbard system in the strongly interacting limit using diagrammatic many-body theory and experiments with ultracold fermions in optical lattices. The lifetime of the doublons is found to scale exponentially with the ratio of the on-site repulsion to the bandwidth. We show that the dominant decay process in presence of background holes is the excitation of a large number of particle-hole pairs to absorb the energy of the doublon. We also show that the strongly interacting nature of the background state is crucial in obtaining the correct estimate of the doublon lifetime in these systems. The theoretical estimates and the experimental data are in agreement.

  2. Population-based local search for protein folding simulation in the MJ energy model and cubic lattices.

    PubMed

    Kapsokalivas, L; Gan, X; Albrecht, A A; Steinhöfel, K

    2009-08-01

    We present experimental results on benchmark problems in 3D cubic lattice structures with the Miyazawa-Jernigan energy function for two local search procedures that utilise the pull-move set: (i) population-based local search (PLS) that traverses the energy landscape with greedy steps towards (potential) local minima followed by upward steps up to a certain level of the objective function; (ii) simulated annealing with a logarithmic cooling schedule (LSA). The parameter settings for PLS are derived from short LSA-runs executed in pre-processing and the procedure utilises tabu lists generated for each member of the population. In terms of the total number of energy function evaluations both methods perform equally well, however, PLS has the potential of being parallelised with an expected speed-up in the region of the population size. Furthermore, both methods require a significant smaller number of function evaluations when compared to Monte Carlo simulations with kink-jump moves. PMID:19647489

  3. Maternal lifetime history of depression and depressive symptoms in the prenatal and early postnatal period do not predict infant-mother attachment quality in a large, population-based Dutch cohort study.

    PubMed

    Tharner, Anne; Luijk, Maartje P C M; van Ijzendoorn, Marinus H; Bakermans-Kranenburg, Marian J; Jaddoe, Vincent W V; Hofman, Albert; Verhulst, Frank C; Tiemeier, Henning

    2012-01-01

    We examined the effects of maternal history of depressive disorder and the effects of depressive symptoms during pregnancy and the early postpartum period on attachment insecurity and disorganization. A total of 627 mother-infant dyads from the Generation R Study participated in a population-based cohort from fetal life onwards. Maternal history of depression was assessed by diagnostic interviews during pregnancy; maternal peri- and postnatal depressive symptoms were assessed with questionnaires in 506 of these women at 20 weeks pregnancy and two months postpartum; and infant-mother attachment security was observed when infants were aged 14 months. A history of maternal depressive disorder, regardless of severity or psychiatric comorbidity, was not associated with an increased risk of infant attachment insecurity or disorganization. Likewise, maternal peri- and postnatal depressive symptoms were not related to attachment insecurity or disorganization at 14 months. These results are important because mothers from otherwise low risk backgrounds often have previously been depressed or are struggling with non-clinical depressive symptoms during pregnancy and after giving birth. Our findings are discussed in terms of protective factors that may limit the potentially negative effects of maternal depressive symptoms on the infant-mother attachment relationship in the general population. The role of selective attrition and lack of information about the mothers' attachment status for the current null-findings are also discussed. PMID:22191607

  4. Environment and the Lifetime of Tropical Deep Convection in a Cloud-Permitting Regional Model Simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Hagos, Samson M.; Feng, Zhe; McFarlane, Sally A.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2013-08-01

    By applying a cloud tracking algorithm to tropical convective systems simulated by a regional high resolution model, the study documents environmental conditions before and after convective systems are initiated over ocean and land by following them during their lifetime. The comparative roles of various environmental fields in affecting the lifetime of convection are also quantified. The statistics of lifetime, maximum area, propagation speed and direction of the simulated deep convection agrees well with geostationary satellite observations. Over ocean, convective systems enhance surface fluxes through the associated wind gusts as well as cooling and drying of the boundary layer. A significant relationship is found between the mean surface fluxes during their lifetime and the longevity of the systems which in turn is related to the initial intensity of the moist updraft and to a lesser extent upper level shear. Over land, on the other hand, convective activity suppresses surface fluxes through cloud cover and the lifetime of convection is related to the upper level shear during their lifetime and strength of the heat fluxes several hours before the initiation of convection. For systems of equal lifetime, those over land are significantly more intense than those over ocean especially during early stages of their lifetime.

  5. Stratospheric lifetime ratio of CFC-11 and CFC-12 from satellite and model climatologies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoffmann, Lars; Hoppe, Charlotte; Müller, Rolf; Dutton, Geoffrey S.; Gille, John C.; Griessbach, Sabine; Jones, Ashley; Meyer, Catrin I.; Spang, Reinhold; Volk, C. Michael; Walker, Kaley A.

    2015-04-01

    Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) play a key role in stratospheric ozone loss and are strong infrared absorbers that contribute to global warming. The stratospheric lifetimes of CFCs are a measure of their stratospheric loss rates that are needed to determine global warming and ozone depletion potentials. We applied the tracer-tracer correlation approach to zonal mean climatologies from satellite measurements and model data to assess the lifetimes of CFCl3 (CFC-11) and CF2Cl2 (CFC-12). We present new estimates of the CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio and the absolute lifetime of CFC-12, based on a reference lifetime of 52 yr for CFC-11. We analyzed climatologies from three satellite missions, the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS), the HIgh Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS), and the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS). We found a CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio of 0.47 ± 0.08 and a CFC-12 lifetime of 112(96 - 133) yr for ACE-FTS, a ratio of 0.46 ± 0.07 and a lifetime of 113(97 - 134) yr for HIRDLS, and a ratio of 0.46 ± 0.08 and a lifetime of 114(98 - 136) yr for MIPAS. The error-weighted, combined CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio is 0.46 ± 0.04 and the CFC-12 lifetime estimate is 113(103 - 124) yr. These results are in excellent agreement with the recent Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) reassessment, which recommends lifetimes of 52(43 - 67) yr for CFC-11 and 102(88 - 122) yr for CFC-12, respectively. Having smaller uncertainties than the results from other recent studies, our estimates can help to better constrain CFC-11 and CFC-12 lifetime recommendations in future scientific studies and assessments. Furthermore, the satellite observations were used to validate first simulation results from a new coupled model system, which integrates a Lagrangian chemistry transport model into a climate model. For the coupled EMAC/CLaMS model we found a CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio

  6. Deployment-based lifetime optimization model for homogeneous Wireless Sensor Network under retransmission.

    PubMed

    Li, Ruiying; Liu, Xiaoxi; Xie, Wei; Huang, Ning

    2014-01-01

    Sensor-deployment-based lifetime optimization is one of the most effective methods used to prolong the lifetime of Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) by reducing the distance-sensitive energy consumption. In this paper, data retransmission, a major consumption factor that is usually neglected in the previous work, is considered. For a homogeneous WSN, monitoring a circular target area with a centered base station, a sensor deployment model based on regular hexagonal grids is analyzed. To maximize the WSN lifetime, optimization models for both uniform and non-uniform deployment schemes are proposed by constraining on coverage, connectivity and success transmission rate. Based on the data transmission analysis in a data gathering cycle, the WSN lifetime in the model can be obtained through quantifying the energy consumption at each sensor location. The results of case studies show that it is meaningful to consider data retransmission in the lifetime optimization. In particular, our investigations indicate that, with the same lifetime requirement, the number of sensors needed in a non-uniform topology is much less than that in a uniform one. Finally, compared with a random scheme, simulation results further verify the advantage of our deployment model. PMID:25513822

  7. There and back again: Iterating between population-based modeling and experiments reveals surprising regulation of calcium transients in rat cardiac myocytes.

    PubMed

    Devenyi, Ryan A; Sobie, Eric A

    2016-07-01

    While many ion channels and transporters involved in cardiac cellular physiology have been identified and described, the relative importance of each in determining emergent cellular behaviors remains unclear. Here we address this issue with a novel approach that combines population-based mathematical modeling with experimental tests to systematically quantify the relative contributions of different ion channels and transporters to the amplitude of the cellular Ca(2+) transient. Sensitivity analysis of a mathematical model of the rat ventricular cardiomyocyte quantified the response of cell behaviors to changes in the level of each ion channel and transporter, and experimental tests of these predictions were performed to validate or invalidate the predictions. The model analysis found that partial inhibition of the transient outward current in rat ventricular epicardial myocytes was predicted to have a greater impact on Ca(2+) transient amplitude than either: (1) inhibition of the same current in endocardial myocytes, or (2) comparable inhibition of the sarco/endoplasmic reticulum Ca(2+) ATPase (SERCA). Experimental tests confirmed the model predictions qualitatively but showed some quantitative disagreement. This guided us to recalibrate the model by adjusting the relative importance of several Ca(2+) fluxes, thereby improving the consistency with experimental data and producing a more predictive model. Analysis of human cardiomyocyte models suggests that the relative importance of outward currents to Ca(2+) transporters is generalizable to human atrial cardiomyocytes, but not ventricular cardiomyocytes. Overall, our novel approach of combining population-based mathematical modeling with experimental tests has yielded new insight into the relative importance of different determinants of cell behavior. PMID:26235057

  8. Cost effectiveness analysis of population-based serology screening and 13C-Urea breath test for Helicobacter pylori to prevent gastric cancer: A markov model

    PubMed Central

    Xie, Feng; Luo, Nan; Lee, Hin-Peng

    2008-01-01

    AIM: To compare the costs and effectiveness of no screening and no eradication therapy, the population-based Helicobacter pylori (H pylori) serology screening with eradication therapy and 13C-Urea breath test (UBT) with eradication therapy. METHODS: A Markov model simulation was carried out in all 237 900 Chinese males with age between 35 and 44 from the perspective of the public healthcare provider in Singapore. The main outcome measures were the costs, number of gastric cancer cases prevented, life years saved, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained from screening age to death. The uncertainty surrounding the cost-effectiveness ratio was addressed by one-way sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Compared to no screening, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was $16 166 per life year saved or $13 571 per QALY gained for the serology screening, and $38 792 per life year saved and $32 525 per QALY gained for the UBT. The ICER was $477 079 per life year saved or $390 337 per QALY gained for the UBT compared to the serology screening. The cost-effectiveness of serology screening over the UBT was robust to most parameters in the model. CONCLUSION: The population-based serology screening for H pylori was more cost-effective than the UBT in prevention of gastric cancer in Singapore Chinese males. PMID:18494053

  9. Development of a simplified gravitational model for lifetime studies of lunar satellite orbits

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meyer, Kurt W.

    1992-01-01

    Future lunar missions will involve long stay times in orbit about the moon. The moon's nonspherical gravitational field is the primary perturbation on a low altitude parking orbit. The objective of this study is to determine the orbital lifetime of a nearly circular low altitude parking orbit. In the present analysis, a simplified gravitational model of the moon is introduced which will enable mission designers to easily predict long term changes in lunar parking orbits at the preliminary design level. The development of a simplified gravitational model with sufficient accuracy is necessary to investigate orbital lifetimes for the large number of orbital parameters possible. Utilization of a simplified model will significantly reduce the required computational time needed to perform this analysis. By investigating the effects of the lunar gravity model on the various parking orbits, the parameters which are important in determining lifetime predictions are identified.

  10. Power law distribution of wealth in population based on a modified Equíluz-Zimmermann model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, Yan-Bo; Wang, Bing-Hong; Hu, Bo; Zhou, Tao

    2005-04-01

    We propose a money-based model for the power law distribution (PLD) of wealth in an economically interacting population. It is introduced as a modification of the Equíluz and Zimmermann (EZ) model for crowding and information transmission in financial markets. Still, it must be stressed that in the EZ model a PLD without exponential correction is obtained only for a particular parameter, while our pattern will give the exact PLD within a wide range. The PLD exponent depends on the model parameters in a nontrivial way and is exactly calculated in this paper. The numerical results are in excellent agreement with the analytic prediction, and also comparable with empirical data of wealth distribution.

  11. Application of a dynamic population-based model for evaluation of exposure reduction strategies in the baking industry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meijster, Tim; Warren, Nick; Heederik, Dick; Tielemans, Erik

    2009-02-01

    Recently a dynamic population model was developed that simulates a population of bakery workers longitudinally through time and tracks the development of work-related sensitisation and respiratory symptoms in each worker. Input for this model comes from cross-sectional and longitudinal epidemiological studies which allowed estimation of exposure response relationships and disease transition probabilities This model allows us to study the development of diseases and transitions between disease states over time in relation to determinants of disease including flour dust and/or allergen exposure. Furthermore it enables more realistic modelling of the health impact of different intervention strategies at the workplace (e.g. changes in exposure may take several years to impact on ill-health and often occur as a gradual trend). A large dataset of individual full-shift exposure measurements and real-time exposure measurements were used to obtain detailed insight into the effectiveness of control measures and other determinants of exposure. Given this information a population wide reduction of the median exposure with 50% was evaluated in this paper.

  12. Interpreting aerosol lifetimes using the GEOS-Chem model and constraints from radionuclide measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Croft, B.; Pierce, J. R.; Martin, R. V.

    2014-04-01

    Aerosol removal processes control global aerosol abundance, but the rate of that removal remains uncertain. A recent study of aerosol-bound radionuclide measurements after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident documents 137Cs removal (e-folding) times of 10.0-13.9 days, suggesting that mean aerosol lifetimes in the range of 3-7 days in global models might be too short by a factor of two. In this study, we attribute this discrepancy to differences between the e-folding and mean aerosol lifetimes. We implement a simulation of 137Cs and 133Xe into the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model and examine the removal rates for the Fukushima case. We find a general consistency between modelled and measured e-folding times. The simulated 137Cs global burden e-folding time is about 14 days. However, the simulated mean lifetime of aerosol-bound 137Cs over a 6-month post-accident period is only 1.8 days. We find that the mean lifetime depends strongly on the removal rates in the first few days after emissions, before the aerosols leave the boundary layer and are transported to altitudes and latitudes where lifetimes with respect to wet removal are longer by a few orders of magnitude. We present sensitivity simulations that demonstrate the influence of differences in altitude and location of the radionuclides on the mean lifetime. Global mean lifetimes are shown to strongly depend on the altitude of injection. The global mean 137Cs lifetime is more than one order of magnitude greater for the injection at 7 km than into the boundary layer above the Fukushima site. Instantaneous removal rates are slower during the first few days after the emissions for a free tropospheric versus boundary layer injection and this strongly controls the mean lifetimes. Global mean aerosol lifetimes for the GEOS-Chem model are 3-6 days, which is longer than that for the 137Cs injected at the Fukushima site (likely due to precipitation shortly after Fukushima emissions), but similar to the

  13. Clinical effectiveness of orthogeriatric and fracture liaison service models of care for hip fracture patients: population-based longitudinal study

    PubMed Central

    Hawley, Samuel; Javaid, M. Kassim; Prieto-Alhambra, Daniel; Lippett, Janet; Sheard, Sally; Arden, Nigel K.; Cooper, Cyrus; Judge, Andrew

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: to evaluate orthogeriatric and nurse-led fracture liaison service (FLS) models of post-hip fracture care in terms of impact on mortality (30 days and 1 year) and second hip fracture (2 years). Setting: Hospital Episode Statistics database linked to Office for National Statistics mortality records for 11 acute hospitals in a region of England. Population: patients aged over 60 years admitted for a primary hip fracture from 2003 to 2013. Methods: each hospital was analysed separately and acted as its own control in a before–after time-series design in which the appointment of an orthogeriatrician or set-up/expansion of an FLS was evaluated. Multivariable Cox regression (mortality) and competing risk survival models (second hip fracture) were used. Fixed effects meta-analysis was used to pool estimates of impact for interventions of the same type. Results: of 33,152 primary hip fracture patients, 1,288 sustained a second hip fracture within 2 years (age and sex standardised proportion of 4.2%). 3,033 primary hip fracture patients died within 30 days and 9,662 died within 1 year (age and sex standardised proportion of 9.5% and 29.8%, respectively). The estimated impact of introducing an orthogeriatrician on 30-day and 1-year mortality was hazard ratio (HR) = 0.73 (95% CI: 0.65–0.82) and HR = 0.81 (CI: 0.75–0.87), respectively. Following an FLS, these associations were as follows: HR = 0.80 (95% CI: 0.71–0.91) and HR = 0.84 (0.77–0.93). There was no significant impact on time to second hip fracture. Conclusions: the introduction and/or expansion of orthogeriatric and FLS models of post-hip fracture care has a beneficial effect on subsequent mortality. No evidence for a reduction in second hip fracture rate was found. PMID:26802076

  14. Associations of iron metabolism genes with blood manganese levels: a population-based study with validation data from animal models

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Given mounting evidence for adverse effects from excess manganese exposure, it is critical to understand host factors, such as genetics, that affect manganese metabolism. Methods Archived blood samples, collected from 332 Mexican women at delivery, were analyzed for manganese. We evaluated associations of manganese with functional variants in three candidate iron metabolism genes: HFE [hemochromatosis], TF [transferrin], and ALAD [δ-aminolevulinic acid dehydratase]. We used a knockout mouse model to parallel our significant results as a novel method of validating the observed associations between genotype and blood manganese in our epidemiologic data. Results Percentage of participants carrying at least one copy of HFE C282Y, HFE H63D, TF P570S, and ALAD K59N variant alleles was 2.4%, 17.7%, 20.1%, and 6.4%, respectively. Percentage carrying at least one copy of either C282Y or H63D allele in HFE gene was 19.6%. Geometric mean (geometric standard deviation) manganese concentrations were 17.0 (1.5) μg/l. Women with any HFE variant allele had 12% lower blood manganese concentrations than women with no variant alleles (β = -0.12 [95% CI = -0.23 to -0.01]). TF and ALAD variants were not significant predictors of blood manganese. In animal models, Hfe-/- mice displayed a significant reduction in blood manganese compared with Hfe+/+ mice, replicating the altered manganese metabolism found in our human research. Conclusions Our study suggests that genetic variants in iron metabolism genes may contribute to variability in manganese exposure by affecting manganese absorption, distribution, or excretion. Genetic background may be critical to consider in studies that rely on environmental manganese measurements. PMID:22074419

  15. Interpreting aerosol lifetimes using the GEOS-Chem model and constraints from radionuclide measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Croft, B.; Pierce, J. R.; Martin, R. V.

    2013-12-01

    Aerosol removal processes control global aerosol abundance, but the rate of that removal remains uncertain. A recent study of aerosol-bound radionuclide measurements after the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear power plant accident documents 137Cs removal (e-folding) times of 10.0 to 13.9 days, suggesting that mean aerosol lifetimes in the range of 3-7 days in global models might be too short by a factor of two. In this study, we attribute this discrepancy to differences between the e-folding and mean aerosol lifetimes. We implement a~simulation of 137Cs and 133Xe into the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model and examine the removal rates for the Fukushima case. We find a~general consistency between modelled and measured e-folding times. The simulated 137Cs global burden e-folding time is about 14 days. However, the simulated mean lifetime of aerosol-bound 137Cs over a 6 month post-accident period is only 1.8 days. We find that the mean lifetime depends strongly on the removal rates in the first few days after emissions, before the aerosols leave the boundary layer and are transported to altitudes and latitudes where lifetimes with respect to wet removal are longer by a few orders of magnitude. We present sensitivity simulations that demonstrate the influence of differences in altitude and location of the radionuclides on the mean lifetime. Global mean lifetimes are shown to strongly depend on the altitude of injection. The global mean 137Cs lifetime is more than one order of magnitude greater for the injection at 7 km than into the boundary layer above the Fukushima site. Instantaneous removal rates are slower during the first few days after the emissions for a free tropospheric vs. boundary layer injection and this strongly controls the mean lifetimes. Global mean aerosol lifetimes for the GEOS-Chem model are 3-6 days, which is longer than for the 137Cs injected at the Fukushima site (likely due to precipitation shortly after Fukushima emissions), but about the same as the

  16. Budget Impact Analysis of Switching to Digital Mammography in a Population-Based Breast Cancer Screening Program: A Discrete Event Simulation Model

    PubMed Central

    Comas, Mercè; Arrospide, Arantzazu; Mar, Javier; Sala, Maria; Vilaprinyó, Ester; Hernández, Cristina; Cots, Francesc; Martínez, Juan; Castells, Xavier

    2014-01-01

    Objective To assess the budgetary impact of switching from screen-film mammography to full-field digital mammography in a population-based breast cancer screening program. Methods A discrete-event simulation model was built to reproduce the breast cancer screening process (biennial mammographic screening of women aged 50 to 69 years) combined with the natural history of breast cancer. The simulation started with 100,000 women and, during a 20-year simulation horizon, new women were dynamically entered according to the aging of the Spanish population. Data on screening were obtained from Spanish breast cancer screening programs. Data on the natural history of breast cancer were based on US data adapted to our population. A budget impact analysis comparing digital with screen-film screening mammography was performed in a sample of 2,000 simulation runs. A sensitivity analysis was performed for crucial screening-related parameters. Distinct scenarios for recall and detection rates were compared. Results Statistically significant savings were found for overall costs, treatment costs and the costs of additional tests in the long term. The overall cost saving was 1,115,857€ (95%CI from 932,147 to 1,299,567) in the 10th year and 2,866,124€ (95%CI from 2,492,610 to 3,239,638) in the 20th year, representing 4.5% and 8.1% of the overall cost associated with screen-film mammography. The sensitivity analysis showed net savings in the long term. Conclusions Switching to digital mammography in a population-based breast cancer screening program saves long-term budget expense, in addition to providing technical advantages. Our results were consistent across distinct scenarios representing the different results obtained in European breast cancer screening programs. PMID:24832200

  17. Simple Derivation of the Lifetime and the Distribution of Faces for a Binary Subdivision Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hayashi, Yukio

    The iterative random subdivision of rectangles is used as a generation model of networks in physics, computer science, and urban planning. However, these researches were independent. We consider some relations in them, and derive fundamental properties for the average lifetime depending on birth-time and the balanced distribution of rectangle faces.

  18. A Comprehensive Multistate Model Analyzing Associations of Various Risk Factors With the Course of Breast Cancer in a Population-Based Cohort of Breast Cancer Cases.

    PubMed

    Eulenburg, Christine; Schroeder, Jennifer; Obi, Nadia; Heinz, Judith; Seibold, Petra; Rudolph, Anja; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Flesch-Janys, Dieter

    2016-02-15

    We employed a semi-Markov multistate model for the simultaneous analysis of various endpoints describing the course of breast cancer. Results were compared with those from standard analyses using a Cox proportional hazards model. We included 3,012 patients with invasive breast cancer newly diagnosed between 2001 and 2005 who were recruited in Germany for a population-based study, the Mamma Carcinoma Risk Factor Investigation (MARIE Study), and prospectively followed up until the end of 2009. Locoregional recurrence and distant metastasis were included as intermediate states, and deaths from breast cancer, secondary cancer, and other causes were included as competing absorbing states. Tumor characteristics were significantly associated with all breast cancer-related endpoints. Nodal involvement was significantly related to local recurrence but more strongly related to distant metastases. Smoking was significantly associated with mortality from second cancers and other causes, whereas menopausal hormone use was significantly associated with reduced distant metastasis and death from causes other than cancer. The presence of cardiovascular disease at diagnosis was solely associated with mortality from other causes. Compared with separate Cox models, multistate models allow for dissection of prognostic factors and intermediate events in the analysis of cause-specific mortality and can yield new insights into disease progression and associated pathways. PMID:26823437

  19. Comparison of Accelerated Testing with Modeling to Predict Lifetime of CPV Solder Layers (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Silverman, T. J.; Bosco, N.; Kurtz, S.

    2012-03-01

    Concentrating photovoltaic (CPV) cell assemblies can fail due to thermomechanical fatigue in the die-attach layer. In this presentation, we show the latest results from our computational model of thermomechanical fatigue. The model is used to estimate the relative lifetime of cell assemblies exposed to various temperature histories consistent with service and with accelerated testing. We also present early results from thermal cycling experiments designed to help validate the computational model.

  20. A generic model for creep rupture lifetime estimation on fibrous ceramic composites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chuang, Tze-Jer

    1992-01-01

    Because of their high strength and toughness at elevated temperatures, fiber reinforced ceramic composites such as SiC(f)/SiC and SiC(f)/Si3N4 have become candidates for next-generation turbine engine materials. A generic model is proposed for assessing the lifetime of this class of materials when subjected to long-term creep rupture conditions. This 2D model consists of interfacial cracks growing between square grains and rectangular fibers in the direction normal to the principal tensile stress axis. Neglecting transient effects, the total lifetime is derived based on the criterion that rupture is due to coalescence of adjacent cracks. Lifetime is inversely proportional to crack growth rate, volume fraction, and aspect ratio of the fibers; but extremely sensitive to the applied stress, due to the high power of the V-K(I) law. This lifetime estimation seems to be in fair agreement with the creep rupture data of SiC(w)/Si3N4 composite with 0 and 30 vol percent reinforcement tested at 1250 C in air. TEM performed on the postcrept specimens revealed that creep damage is predominantly in the form of microcracks at matrix/matrix as well as fiber/matrix interfaces, approximately in accord with the model simulation.

  1. Prediction of liver disease in patients whose liver function tests have been checked in primary care: model development and validation using population-based observational cohorts

    PubMed Central

    McLernon, David J; Donnan, Peter T; Sullivan, Frank M; Roderick, Paul; Rosenberg, William M; Ryder, Steve D; Dillon, John F

    2014-01-01

    Objective To derive and validate a clinical prediction model to estimate the risk of liver disease diagnosis following liver function tests (LFTs) and to convert the model to a simplified scoring tool for use in primary care. Design Population-based observational cohort study of patients in Tayside Scotland identified as having their LFTs performed in primary care and followed for 2 years. Biochemistry data were linked to secondary care, prescriptions and mortality data to ascertain baseline characteristics of the derivation cohort. A separate validation cohort was obtained from 19 general practices across the rest of Scotland to externally validate the final model. Setting Primary care, Tayside, Scotland. Participants Derivation cohort: LFT results from 310 511 patients. After exclusions (including: patients under 16 years, patients having initial LFTs measured in secondary care, bilirubin >35 μmol/L, liver complications within 6 weeks and history of a liver condition), the derivation cohort contained 95 977 patients with no clinically apparent liver condition. Validation cohort: after exclusions, this cohort contained 11 653 patients. Primary and secondary outcome measures Diagnosis of a liver condition within 2 years. Results From the derivation cohort (n=95 977), 481 (0.5%) were diagnosed with a liver disease. The model showed good discrimination (C-statistic=0.78). Given the low prevalence of liver disease, the negative predictive values were high. Positive predictive values were low but rose to 20–30% for high-risk patients. Conclusions This study successfully developed and validated a clinical prediction model and subsequent scoring tool, the Algorithm for Liver Function Investigations (ALFI), which can predict liver disease risk in patients with no clinically obvious liver disease who had their initial LFTs taken in primary care. ALFI can help general practitioners focus referral on a small subset of patients with higher predicted risk

  2. Beyond R0: Demographic Models for Variability of Lifetime Reproductive Output

    PubMed Central

    Caswell, Hal

    2011-01-01

    The net reproductive rate measures the expected lifetime reproductive output of an individual, and plays an important role in demography, ecology, evolution, and epidemiology. Well-established methods exist to calculate it from age- or stage-classified demographic data. As an expectation, provides no information on variability; empirical measurements of lifetime reproduction universally show high levels of variability, and often positive skewness among individuals. This is often interpreted as evidence of heterogeneity, and thus of an opportunity for natural selection. However, variability provides evidence of heterogeneity only if it exceeds the level of variability to be expected in a cohort of identical individuals all experiencing the same vital rates. Such comparisons require a way to calculate the statistics of lifetime reproduction from demographic data. Here, a new approach is presented, using the theory of Markov chains with rewards, obtaining all the moments of the distribution of lifetime reproduction. The approach applies to age- or stage-classified models, to constant, periodic, or stochastic environments, and to any kind of reproductive schedule. As examples, I analyze data from six empirical studies, of a variety of animal and plant taxa (nematodes, polychaetes, humans, and several species of perennial plants). PMID:21738586

  3. The relationship between the Five-Factor Model personality traits and peptic ulcer disease in a large population-based adult sample.

    PubMed

    Realo, Anu; Teras, Andero; Kööts-Ausmees, Liisi; Esko, Tõnu; Metspalu, Andres; Allik, Jüri

    2015-12-01

    The current study examined the relationship between the Five-Factor Model personality traits and physician-confirmed peptic ulcer disease (PUD) diagnosis in a large population-based adult sample, controlling for the relevant behavioral and sociodemographic factors. Personality traits were assessed by participants themselves and by knowledgeable informants using the NEO Personality Inventory-3 (NEO PI-3). When controlling for age, sex, education, and cigarette smoking, only one of the five NEO PI-3 domain scales - higher Neuroticism - and two facet scales - lower A1: Trust and higher C1: Competence - made a small, yet significant contribution (p < 0.01) to predicting PUD in logistic regression analyses. In the light of these relatively modest associations, our findings imply that it is certain behavior (such as smoking) and sociodemographic variables (such as age, gender, and education) rather than personality traits that are associated with the diagnosis of PUD at a particular point in time. Further prospective studies with a longitudinal design and multiple assessments would be needed to fully understand if the FFM personality traits serve as risk factors for the development of PUD. PMID:26437682

  4. Natural History of Dependency in the Elderly: A 24-Year Population-Based Study Using a Longitudinal Item Response Theory Model.

    PubMed

    Edjolo, Arlette; Proust-Lima, Cécile; Delva, Fleur; Dartigues, Jean-François; Pérès, Karine

    2016-02-15

    We aimed to describe the hierarchical structure of Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL) and basic Activities of Daily Living (ADL) and trajectories of dependency before death in an elderly population using item response theory methodology. Data were obtained from a population-based French cohort study, the Personnes Agées QUID (PAQUID) Study, of persons aged ≥65 years at baseline in 1988 who were recruited from 75 randomly selected areas in Gironde and Dordogne. We evaluated IADL and ADL data collected at home every 2-3 years over a 24-year period (1988-2012) for 3,238 deceased participants (43.9% men). We used a longitudinal item response theory model to investigate the item sequence of 11 IADL and ADL combined into a single scale and functional trajectories adjusted for education, sex, and age at death. The findings confirmed the earliest losses in IADL (shopping, transporting, finances) at the partial limitation level, and then an overlapping of concomitant IADL and ADL, with bathing and dressing being the earliest ADL losses, and finally total losses for toileting, continence, eating, and transferring. Functional trajectories were sex-specific, with a benefit of high education that persisted until death in men but was only transient in women. An in-depth understanding of this sequence provides an early warning of functional decline for better adaptation of medical and social care in the elderly. PMID:26825927

  5. Evaluation of observed and modelled aerosol lifetimes using radioactive tracers of opportunity and an ensemble of 19 global models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kristiansen, N. I.; Stohl, A.; Olivié, D. J. L.; Croft, B.; Søvde, O. A.; Klein, H.; Christoudias, T.; Kunkel, D.; Leadbetter, S. J.; Lee, Y. H.; Zhang, K.; Tsigaridis, K.; Bergman, T.; Evangeliou, N.; Wang, H.; Ma, P.-L.; Easter, R. C.; Rasch, P. J.; Liu, X.; Pitari, G.; Di Genova, G.; Zhao, S. Y.; Balkanski, Y.; Bauer, S. E.; Faluvegi, G. S.; Kokkola, H.; Martin, R. V.; Pierce, J. R.; Schulz, M.; Shindell, D.; Tost, H.; Zhang, H.

    2016-03-01

    Aerosols have important impacts on air quality and climate, but the processes affecting their removal from the atmosphere are not fully understood and are poorly constrained by observations. This makes modelled aerosol lifetimes uncertain. In this study, we make use of an observational constraint on aerosol lifetimes provided by radionuclide measurements and investigate the causes of differences within a set of global models. During the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear power plant accident of March 2011, the radioactive isotopes cesium-137 (137Cs) and xenon-133 (133Xe) were released in large quantities. Cesium attached to particles in the ambient air, approximately according to their available aerosol surface area. 137Cs size distribution measurements taken close to the power plant suggested that accumulation-mode (AM) sulfate aerosols were the main carriers of cesium. Hence, 137Cs can be used as a proxy tracer for the AM sulfate aerosol's fate in the atmosphere. In contrast, the noble gas 133Xe behaves almost like a passive transport tracer. Global surface measurements of the two radioactive isotopes taken over several months after the release allow the derivation of a lifetime of the carrier aerosol. We compare this to the lifetimes simulated by 19 different atmospheric transport models initialized with identical emissions of 137Cs that were assigned to an aerosol tracer with each model's default properties of AM sulfate, and 133Xe emissions that were assigned to a passive tracer. We investigate to what extent the modelled sulfate tracer can reproduce the measurements, especially with respect to the observed loss of aerosol mass with time. Modelled 137Cs and 133Xe concentrations sampled at the same location and times as station measurements allow a direct comparison between measured and modelled aerosol lifetime. The e-folding lifetime τe, calculated from station measurement data taken between 2 and 9 weeks after the start of the emissions, is 14.3 days (95

  6. Evaluation of Observed and Modelled Aerosol Lifetimes Using Radioactive Tracers of Opportunity and an Ensemble of 19 Global Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kristiansen, N. I.; Stohl, A.; Olivie, D. J. L.; Croft, B.; Sovde, O. A.; Klein, H.; Christoudias, T.; Kunkel, D.; Leadbetter, S. J.; Lee, Y. H.; Zhang, K.; Tsigaridis, K.; Bauer, S. E.; Faluvegi, G. S.; Shindell, D.

    2016-01-01

    Aerosols have important impacts on air quality and climate, but the processes affecting their removal from the atmosphere are not fully understood and are poorly constrained by observations. This makes modelled aerosol lifetimes uncertain. In this study, we make use of an observational constraint on aerosol lifetimes provided by radionuclide measurements and investigate the causes of differences within a set of global models. During the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear power plant accident of March 2011, the radioactive isotopes cesium-137 (Cs-137) and xenon-133 (Xe-133) were released in large quantities. Cesium attached to particles in the ambient air, approximately according to their available aerosol surface area. Cs-137 size distribution measurements taken close to the power plant suggested that accumulation mode (AM) sulfate aerosols were the main carriers of cesium. Hence, Cs-137 can be used as a proxy tracer for the AM sulfate aerosol's fate in the atmosphere. In contrast, the noble gas Xe-133 behaves almost like a passive transport tracer. Global surface measurements of the two radioactive isotopes taken over several months after the release allow the derivation of a lifetime of the carrier aerosol. We compare this to the lifetimes simulated by 19 different atmospheric transport models initialized with identical emissions of Cs-137that were assigned to an aerosol tracer with each model's default properties of AM sulfate, and Xe-133 emissions that were assigned to a passive tracer. We investigate to what extent the modelled sulfate tracer can reproduce the measurements, especially with respect to the observed loss of aerosol mass with time. Modelled Cs-137and Xe-133 concentrations sampled at the same location and times as station measurements allow a direct comparison between measured and modelled aerosol lifetime. The e-folding lifetime e, calculated from station measurement data taken between 2 and 9 weeks after the start of the emissions, is 14.3 days (95

  7. Evaluation of observed and modelled aerosol lifetimes using radioactive tracers of opportunity and an ensemble of 19 global models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kristiansen, N. I.; Stohl, A.; Olivié, D. J. L.; Croft, B.; Søvde, O. A.; Klein, H.; Christoudias, T.; Kunkel, D.; Leadbetter, S. J.; Lee, Y. H.; Zhang, K.; Tsigaridis, K.; Bergman, T.; Evangeliou, N.; Wang, H.; Ma, P.-L.; Easter, R. C.; Rasch, P. J.; Liu, X.; Pitari, G.; Di Genova, G.; Zhao, S. Y.; Balkanski, Y.; Bauer, S. E.; Faluvegi, G. S.; Kokkola, H.; Martin, R. V.; Pierce, J. R.; Schulz, M.; Shindell, D.; Tost, H.; Zhang, H.

    2015-09-01

    Aerosols have important impacts on air quality and climate, but the processes affecting their removal from the atmosphere are not fully understood and are poorly constrained by observations. This makes modelled aerosol lifetimes uncertain. In this study, we make use of an observational constraint on aerosol lifetimes provided by radionuclide measurements and investigate the causes of differences within a set of global models. During the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear power plant accident of March 2011, the radioactive isotopes cesium-137 (137Cs) and xenon-133 (133Xe) were released in large quantities. Cesium attached to particles in the ambient air, approximately according to their available aerosol surface area. 137Cs size distribution measurements taken close to the power plant suggested that accumulation-mode (AM) sulphate aerosols were the main carriers for the cesium. Hence, 137Cs can be used as a proxy tracer for the AM sulphate aerosol's fate in the atmosphere. In contrast, the noble gas 133Xe behaves almost like a passive transport tracer. Global surface measurements of the two radioactive isotopes taken over several months after the release allow the derivation of a lifetime of the carrier aerosol. We compare this to the lifetimes simulated by 19 different atmospheric transport models initialized with identical emissions of 137Cs that were assigned to an aerosol tracer with each model's default properties of AM sulphate, and 133Xe emissions that were assigned to a passive tracer. We investigate to what extent the modelled sulphate tracer can reproduce the measurements, especially with respect to the observed loss of aerosol mass with time. Modelled 37Cs and 133Xe concentrations sampled at the same location and times as station measurements allow a direct comparison between measured and modelled aerosol lifetime. The e-folding lifetime τe, calculated from station measurement data taken between two and nine weeks after the start of the emissions, is 14.3 days

  8. A new lifetime estimation model for a quicker LED reliability prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamon, B. H.; Mendizabal, L.; Feuillet, G.; Gasse, A.; Bataillou, B.

    2014-09-01

    LED reliability and lifetime prediction is a key point for Solid State Lighting adoption. For this purpose, one hundred and fifty LEDs have been aged for a reliability analysis. LEDs have been grouped following nine current-temperature stress conditions. Stress driving current was fixed between 350mA and 1A and ambient temperature between 85C and 120°C. Using integrating sphere and I(V) measurements, a cross study of the evolution of electrical and optical characteristics has been done. Results show two main failure mechanisms regarding lumen maintenance. The first one is the typically observed lumen depreciation and the second one is a much more quicker depreciation related to an increase of the leakage and non radiative currents. Models of the typical lumen depreciation and leakage resistance depreciation have been made using electrical and optical measurements during the aging tests. The combination of those models allows a new method toward a quicker LED lifetime prediction. These two models have been used for lifetime predictions for LEDs.

  9. Forecasting of electronic devices lifetime on the basis of activation models of functional parameters drift

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kozlova, I. N.

    2016-04-01

    We propose a model of functional parameters drift for electronic devices, allowing predicting their lifetime. The method of model parameters estimation is developed. The developed model allows optimizing the accelerated tests modes, taking into account the complex impact of stress factors. The results are applicable for modern electronic devices with a failure rate less than 1 FIT. The results are applicable if the physical and chemical processes leading to electronic devices degradation have an activation mechanism; the activation process is due to the temperature.

  10. Lifetime of Cosmic-Ray Muons and the Standard Model of Fundamental Particles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mukherji, Sahansha; Shevde, Yash; Majewski, Walerian

    2015-04-01

    Muon is one of the twelve fundamental particles of matter, having the longest free-particle lifetime. It decays into three other leptons through an exchange of the weak vector bosons W+/W-. Muons are present in the secondary cosmic ray showers in the atmosphere, reaching the sea level. By detecting time delay between arrival of the muon and an appearance of the decay electron in our single scintillation detector (donated by the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility, Newport News, VA), we measured muon's lifetime at rest. It compares well with the value predicted by the Standard Model of Particles. From the lifetime we were able to calculate the ratio gw /MW of the weak coupling constant gw (an analog of the electric charge) to the mass of the W-boson MW. Using further Standard Model relations and an experimental value for MW, we calculated the weak coupling constant, the electric charge of the muon, and the vacuum expectation value of the Higgs field. We determined the sea-level flux of cosmic muons.

  11. Study of behavior and determination of customer lifetime value(CLV) using Markov chain model

    SciTech Connect

    Permana, Dony; Indratno, Sapto Wahyu; Pasaribu, Udjianna S.

    2014-03-24

    Customer Lifetime Value or CLV is a restriction on interactive marketing to help a company in arranging financial for the marketing of new customer acquisition and customer retention. Additionally CLV can be able to segment customers for financial arrangements. Stochastic models for the fairly new CLV used a Markov chain. In this model customer retention probability and new customer acquisition probability play an important role. This model is originally introduced by Pfeifer and Carraway in 2000 [1]. They introduced several CLV models, one of them only involves customer and former customer. In this paper we expand the model by adding the assumption of the transition from former customer to customer. In the proposed model, the CLV value is higher than the CLV value obtained by Pfeifer and Caraway model. But our model still requires a longer convergence time.

  12. Study of behavior and determination of customer lifetime value(CLV) using Markov chain model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Permana, Dony; Indratno, Sapto Wahyu; Pasaribu, Udjianna S.

    2014-03-01

    Customer Lifetime Value or CLV is a restriction on interactive marketing to help a company in arranging financial for the marketing of new customer acquisition and customer retention. Additionally CLV can be able to segment customers for financial arrangements. Stochastic models for the fairly new CLV used a Markov chain. In this model customer retention probability and new customer acquisition probability play an important role. This model is originally introduced by Pfeifer and Carraway in 2000 [1]. They introduced several CLV models, one of them only involves customer and former customer. In this paper we expand the model by adding the assumption of the transition from former customer to customer. In the proposed model, the CLV value is higher than the CLV value obtained by Pfeifer and Caraway model. But our model still requires a longer convergence time.

  13. Medication Adherence Patterns after Hospitalization for Coronary Heart Disease. A Population-Based Study Using Electronic Records and Group-Based Trajectory Models

    PubMed Central

    Librero, Julián; Sanfélix-Gimeno, Gabriel; Peiró, Salvador

    2016-01-01

    Objective To identify adherence patterns over time and their predictors for evidence-based medications used after hospitalization for coronary heart disease (CHD). Patients and Methods We built a population-based retrospective cohort of all patients discharged after hospitalization for CHD from public hospitals in the Valencia region (Spain) during 2008 (n = 7462). From this initial cohort, we created 4 subcohorts with at least one prescription (filled or not) from each therapeutic group (antiplatelet, beta-blockers, ACEI/ARB, statins) within the first 3 months after discharge. Monthly adherence was defined as having ≥24 days covered out of 30, leading to a repeated binary outcome measure. We assessed the membership to trajectory groups of adherence using group-based trajectory models. We also analyzed predictors of the different adherence patterns using multinomial logistic regression. Results We identified a maximum of 5 different adherence patterns: 1) Nearly-always adherent patients; 2) An early gap in adherence with a later recovery; 3) Brief gaps in medication use or occasional users; 4) A slow decline in adherence; and 5) A fast decline. These patterns represented variable proportions of patients, the descending trajectories being more frequent for the beta-blocker and ACEI/ARB cohorts (16% and 17%, respectively) than the antiplatelet and statin cohorts (10% and 8%, respectively). Predictors of poor or intermediate adherence patterns were having a main diagnosis of unstable angina or other forms of CHD vs. AMI in the index hospitalization, being born outside Spain, requiring copayment or being older. Conclusion Distinct adherence patterns over time and their predictors were identified. This may be a useful approach for targeting improvement interventions in patients with poor adherence patterns. PMID:27551748

  14. School Performance and the Risk of Suicidal Thoughts in Young Adults: Population-Based Study

    PubMed Central

    Kosidou, Kyriaki; Dalman, Christina; Fredlund, Peeter; Magnusson, Cecilia

    2014-01-01

    Although low school performance is related to attempted and completed suicide, its relationship with suicidal thoughts has been less clear. We conducted a population-based study including 10081 individuals aged 18–29 years in Stockholm, Sweden, and found a clear positive gradient in the risk of lifetime suicidal thoughts with decreasing levels of compulsory school leaving grades. This relationship was somewhat attenuated but remained significant in multivariate models accounting for family background, severe adult psychopathology and adult socioeconomic conditions. School failure is associated with an increased risk of experiencing suicidal thoughts and may also increase the tendency of acting upon them. PMID:25347404

  15. A simplified generic cryostat thermal model for predicting cryogen mass and lifetime. [of cryogenic space telescopes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Birur, G. C.; Tsuyuki, G. T.

    1992-01-01

    This study presents a simple generic cryostat thermal model developed for predicting cryogen mass and the lifetime of cryogenic space telescopes. The model is based on a lumped parameter representation of eight nodes and over 35 conductors. The major telescope Dewar components represented as nodes are the main cryogen tank, the three vapor-cooled shields, the outer shell, barrel baffle, and the barrel baffle heat exchanger. The input to the model consists of the vapor-cooled shield, support straps and instrument cable geometry, and the cryostat heat loads from the instrument and through the aperture. The predictions from the model were compared with those from the more detailed models of IRAS, COBE, and SIRTF. Correlation of the helium flow rates of the IRAS and COBE Dewars was 12 percent above the actual flight or ground test data and for SIRTF it was less than 2 percent of the prediction from the detailed model.

  16. Computational-experimental investigation of the lifetime of welded pipe joints based on the method of local modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Belokurov, V. N.; Pavlovskij, V. E.; Strel'Chenko, A. S.; Strel'Chenko, I. G.; Filatov, E. Ya.

    1994-06-01

    A conception of local modeling of fatigue lifetime for thin-walled structural elements of shell type is formulated. An experimental procedure to determine the lifetime of welded thin-walled pipe joints is given. The estimation of the structure lifetime is performed on the basis of testing its local models which provide the similarity of fatigue fracture process parameters. Fatigue test results for T-shaped pipe joints and their models are presented. A specific choice of the model geometry makes it possible to 'reproduce' the values of the lifetime close to those of a full-scale structure, with the magnitude of the repeated variable load being essentially lower than that on the structure.

  17. Lifetime growth in wild meerkats: incorporating life history and environmental factors into a standard growth model.

    PubMed

    English, Sinéad; Bateman, Andrew W; Clutton-Brock, Tim H

    2012-05-01

    Lifetime records of changes in individual size or mass in wild animals are scarce and, as such, few studies have attempted to model variation in these traits across the lifespan or to assess the factors that affect them. However, quantifying lifetime growth is essential for understanding trade-offs between growth and other life history parameters, such as reproductive performance or survival. Here, we used model selection based on information theory to measure changes in body mass over the lifespan of wild meerkats, and compared the relative fits of several standard growth models (monomolecular, von Bertalanffy, Gompertz, logistic and Richards). We found that meerkats exhibit monomolecular growth, with the best model incorporating separate growth rates before and after nutritional independence, as well as effects of season and total rainfall in the previous nine months. Our study demonstrates how simple growth curves may be improved by considering life history and environmental factors, which may be particularly relevant when quantifying growth patterns in wild populations. PMID:22108854

  18. Bayesian framework for parametric bivariate accelerated lifetime modeling and its application to hospital acquired infections.

    PubMed

    Bilgili, D; Ryu, D; Ergönül, Ö; Ebrahimi, N

    2016-03-01

    Infectious diseases that can be spread directly or indirectly from one person to another are caused by pathogenic microorganisms such as bacteria, viruses, parasites, or fungi. Infectious diseases remain one of the greatest threats to human health and the analysis of infectious disease data is among the most important application of statistics. In this article, we develop Bayesian methodology using parametric bivariate accelerated lifetime model to study dependency between the colonization and infection times for Acinetobacter baumannii bacteria which is leading cause of infection among the hospital infection agents. We also study their associations with covariates such as age, gender, apache score, antibiotics use 3 months before admission and invasive mechanical ventilation use. To account for singularity, we use Singular Bivariate Extreme Value distribution to model residuals in Bivariate Accelerated lifetime model under the fully Bayesian framework. We analyze a censored data related to the colonization and infection collected in five major hospitals in Turkey using our methodology. The data analysis done in this article is for illustration of our proposed method and can be applied to any situation that our model can be used. PMID:26394029

  19. Theoretical effects of surface diffused region lifetime models on silicon solar cells

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dunbar, P. M.; Hauser, J. R.

    1977-01-01

    A computer simulation of silicon solar cells has indicated that the combination of band gap reduction due to heavy doping and certain spatial forms of lifetime dependence can combine to form severe limitations on the open-circuit voltage of such cells. The interaction of these effects tends to shift the active region of the diffused surface layer away from the injecting junction, resulting in an increase in the current density injected into the surface region. Reductions in open circuit voltage as great as 10% over models which do not include these effects can be seen.

  20. Hole injection SiO2 breakdown model for very low voltage lifetime extrapolation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schuegraf, Klaus F.; Hu, Chenming

    1994-05-01

    In this paper, we present a model for silicon dioxide breakdown characterization, valid for a thickness range between 25 angstrom and 130 angstrom, which provides a method for predicting dielectric lifetime for reduced power supply voltages and aggressively scaled oxide thicknesses. This model, based on hole injection from the anode, accurately predicts Q(sub BD) and t(sub BD) behavior including a fluence in excess of 10(exp 7) C/cm(exp 2) at an oxide voltage of 2.4 V for a 25 angstrom oxide. Moreover, this model is a refinement of and fully complementary with the well known 1/E model, while offering the ability to predict oxide reliability for low voltages.

  1. Modeling of LaB6 hollow cathode performance and lifetime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pedrini, Daniela; Albertoni, Riccardo; Paganucci, Fabrizio; Andrenucci, Mariano

    2015-01-01

    Thermionic hollow cathodes are currently used as sources of electrons in a variety of space applications, in particular as cathodes/neutralizers of electric thrusters (Hall effect and ion thrusters). Numerical tools are needed to guide the design of new devices before their manufacturing and testing, since multiple geometrical parameters influence the cathode performance. A reduced-order, numerical model was developed to assess the performance of orificed hollow cathodes, with a focus on the operational lifetime. The importance of the lifetime prediction is tied to its impact on the operational lifetime of the thruster to which the cathode is coupled. The cathode architecture consists of a refractory metal tube with an internal electron emitter made of lanthanum hexaboride (LaB6). The choice of LaB6 accounts for the reduced evaporation rate, the low sensitivity to poisoning and the absence of an activation procedure with respect to oxide cathodes. A LaB6 emitter is thus a valuable option for long-lasting cathodes, despite its relatively high work-function and reactivity with many refractory metals at high temperatures. The suggested reduced-order model self-consistently predicts the key parameters of the cathode operation, shedding light on the power deposition processes as well as on the main erosion mechanisms. Preliminary results showed good agreement with both the experimental data collected by Alta and data available from the literature for different operating conditions and power levels. Next developments will include further comparisons between theoretical and experimental data, considering cathodes of various size and operating conditions.

  2. Using a combined population-based and kinetic modelling approach to assess timescales and durations of magma migration activities prior to the 1669 flank eruption of Mt. Etna

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kahl, M.; Morgan, D. J.; Viccaro, M.; Dingwell, D. B.

    2015-12-01

    The March-July eruption of Mt. Etna in 1669 is ranked as one of the most destructive and voluminous eruptions of Etna volcano in historical times. To assess threats from future eruptions, a better understanding of how and over what timescales magma moved underground prior to and during the 1669 eruption is required. We present a combined population based and kinetic modelling approach [1-2] applied to 185 olivine crystals that erupted during the 1669 eruption. By means of this approach we provide, for the first time, a dynamic picture of magma mixing and magma migration activity prior to and during the 1669 flank eruption of Etna volcano. Following the work of [3] we have studied 10 basaltic lava samples (five SET1 and five SET2 samples) that were erupted from different fissures that opened between 950 and 700 m a.s.l. Following previous work [1-2] we were able to classify different populations of olivine based on their overall core and rim compositional record and the prevalent zoning type (i.e. normal vs. reverse). The core plateau compositions of the SET1 and SET2 olivines range from Fo70 up to Fo83 with a single peak at Fo75-76. The rims differ significantly and can be distinguished into two different groups. Olivine rims from the SET1 samples are generally more evolved and range from Fo50 to Fo64 with a maximum at Fo55-57. SET2 olivine rims vary between Fo65-75 with a peak at Fo69. SET1 and SET2 olivines display normal zonation with cores at Fo75-76 and diverging rim records (Fo55-57 and Fo65-75). The diverging core and rim compositions recorded in the SET1 and SET2 olivines can be attributed to magma evolution possibly in three different magmatic environments (MEs): M1 (=Fo75-76), M2 (=Fo69) and M3 (=Fo55-57) with magma transfer and mixing amongst them. The MEs established in this study differ slightly from those identified in previous works [1-2]. We note the relative lack of olivines with Fo-rich core and rim compositions indicating a major mafic magma

  3. Validity of Various Approaches to Global Kinetic Modeling of Material Lifetimes

    SciTech Connect

    Burnham, A K; Dinh, L N

    2006-09-11

    Chemical kinetic modeling has been used for many years in process optimization, estimating real-time material performance, and lifetime prediction. Chemists have tended towards developing detailed mechanistic models, while engineers have tended towards global or lumped models. Many, if not most, applications use global models by necessity, since it is impractical or impossible to develop a rigorous mechanistic model. Model fitting acquired a bad connotation in the thermal analysis community after that community realized a decade after other disciplines that deriving kinetic parameters for an assumed model from a single heating rate produced unreliable and sometimes nonsensical results. In its place, advanced isoconversional methods, which have their roots in the Friedman and Ozawa-Flynn-Wall methods of the 1960s, have become increasingly popular. In fact, as pointed out by the ICTAC kinetics project in 2000, valid kinetic parameters can be derived by both isoconversional and model fitting methods as long as a diverse set of thermal histories are used to derive the kinetic parameters. The current paper extends the understanding from that project to give a better appreciation of the strengths and weaknesses of isoconversional and model-fitting approaches. Examples are given from a variety of data sets.

  4. Improving Trust and Reputation Modeling in E-Commerce Using Agent Lifetime and Transaction Count

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cormier, Catherine; Tran, Thomas T.

    Effective and reliable trust and reputation modeling systems are central to the success of decentralized e-commerce systems where autonomous agents are relied upon to conduct commercial transactions. However, the subjective and social-based qualities that are inherent to trust and reputation introduce many complexities into the development of a reliable model. Existing research has successfully demonstrated how trust systems can be decentralized and has illustrated the importance of sharing trust information, or rather, modeling reputation. Still, few models have provided a solution for developing an initial set of advisors from whom to solicit reputation rankings, or have taken into account all of the social criteria used to determine trustworthiness. To meet these objectives, we propose the use of two new parameters in trust and reputation modeling: agent lifetime and total transaction count. We describe a model that employs these parameters to calculate an agent’s seniority, then apply this information when selecting agents for soliciting and ranking reputation information. Experiments using this model are described. The results are then presented and discussed to evaluate the effect of using these parameters in reputation modeling. We also discuss the value of our particular model in contrast with related work and conclude with directions for future research.

  5. Modeling motivation and habit in driving behavior under lifetime driver's license revocation.

    PubMed

    Tseng, Chien-Ming; Chang, Hsin-Li; Woo, T Hugh

    2013-03-01

    The purpose of the present study was to verify the motivational factors underlying the theory of planned behavior (TPB) predicting the driving behavior of lifetime driving license revoked offenders. Of a total of 639 drivers whose licenses had been permanently revoked, 544 offenders completed a questionnaire constructed to measure attitudes toward behaviors, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, behavioral intentions (the key constructs of the TPB), and previous driving habit strength. The finding of the study revealed that an offenders' driving behavior after a lifetime license revocation was significantly correlated to behavioral intention (R=0.60, p<0.01), perceived behavioral control (R=0.61, p<0.01), previous driving habit (R=0.44, p<0.01), and attitude (R=0.41, p<0.01). There was no evidence that subjective norms including road regulation, society ethics, and people important to offenders had an influence on driving behavior (R=0.03). Low driving habit strength offenders are motivated to drive because of behavioral intention, whereas strong driving habit strength offenders are motivated to drive because of perceived behavioral control. Previous driving habit strength is a moderator in the intention-behavior relationship. The model appeared successful when previous habits were weak, but less successful when previous habits were strong. PMID:23287113

  6. EXPOSED LONG-LIFETIME FIRST CORE: A NEW MODEL OF FIRST CORES BASED ON RADIATION HYDRODYNAMICS

    SciTech Connect

    Tomida, Kengo; Tomisaka, Kohji; Machida, Masahiro N.; Saigo, Kazuya; Matsumoto, Tomoaki E-mail: tomisaka@th.nao.ac.j E-mail: saigo.kazuya@nao.ac.j

    2010-12-20

    A first adiabatic core is a transient object formed in the early phase of star formation. The observation of a first core is believed to be difficult because of its short lifetime and low luminosity. On the basis of radiation hydrodynamic simulations, we propose a novel theoretical model of first cores, the Exposed Long-lifetime First core (ELF). In the very low-mass molecular core, the first core evolves slowly and lives longer than 10,000 years because the accretion rate is considerably low. The evolution of ELFs is different from that of ordinary first cores because radiation cooling has a significant effect there. We also carry out a radiation-transfer calculation of dust-continuum emission from ELFs to predict their observational properties. ELFs have slightly fainter but similar spectral energy distributions to ordinary first cores in radio wavelengths, therefore they can be observed. Although the probabilities that such low-mass cores become gravitationally unstable and start to collapse are low, we still can expect that a considerable number of ELFs can be formed because there are many low-mass molecular cloud cores in star-forming regions that could be progenitors of ELFs.

  7. Modeling of high homologous temperature deformation behavior for stress and life-time analyses

    SciTech Connect

    Krempl, E.

    1997-12-31

    Stress and lifetime analyses need realistic and accurate constitutive models for the inelastic deformation behavior of engineering alloys at low and high temperatures. Conventional creep and plasticity models have fundamental difficulties in reproducing high homologous temperature behavior. To improve the modeling capabilities {open_quotes}unified{close_quotes} state variable theories were conceived. They consider all inelastic deformation rate-dependent and do not have separate repositories for creep and plasticity. The viscoplasticity theory based on overstress (VBO), one of the unified theories, is introduced and its properties are delineated. At high homologous temperature where secondary and tertiary creep are observed modeling is primarily accomplished by a static recovery term and a softening isotropic stress. At low temperatures creep is merely a manifestation of rate dependence. The primary creep modeled at low homologous temperature is due to the rate dependence of the flow law. The model is unaltered in the transition from low to high temperature except that the softening of the isotropic stress and the influence of the static recovery term increase with an increase of the temperature.

  8. Solving inverse problem for Markov chain model of customer lifetime value using flower pollination algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Al-Ma'shumah, Fathimah; Permana, Dony; Sidarto, Kuntjoro Adji

    2015-12-01

    Customer Lifetime Value is an important and useful concept in marketing. One of its benefits is to help a company for budgeting marketing expenditure for customer acquisition and customer retention. Many mathematical models have been introduced to calculate CLV considering the customer retention/migration classification scheme. A fairly new class of these models which will be described in this paper uses Markov Chain Models (MCM). This class of models has the major advantage for its flexibility to be modified to several different cases/classification schemes. In this model, the probabilities of customer retention and acquisition play an important role. From Pfeifer and Carraway, 2000, the final formula of CLV obtained from MCM usually contains nonlinear form of the transition probability matrix. This nonlinearity makes the inverse problem of CLV difficult to solve. This paper aims to solve this inverse problem, yielding the approximate transition probabilities for the customers, by applying metaheuristic optimization algorithm developed by Yang, 2013, Flower Pollination Algorithm. The major interpretation of obtaining the transition probabilities are to set goals for marketing teams in keeping the relative frequencies of customer acquisition and customer retention.

  9. Multiphysics modelling, quantum chemistry and risk analysis for corrosion inhibitor design and lifetime prediction.

    PubMed

    Taylor, C D; Chandra, A; Vera, J; Sridhar, N

    2015-01-01

    Organic corrosion inhibitors can provide an effective means to extend the life of equipment in aggressive environments, decrease the environmental, economic, health and safety risks associated with corrosion failures and enable the use of low cost steels in place of corrosion resistant alloys. To guide the construction of advanced models for the design and optimization of the chemical composition of organic inhibitors, and to develop predictive tools for inhibitor performance as a function of alloy and environment, a multiphysics model has been constructed following Staehle's principles of "domains and microprocesses". The multiphysics framework provides a way for science-based modelling of the various phenomena that impact inhibitor efficiency, including chemical thermodynamics and speciation, oil/water partitioning, effect of the inhibitor on multiphase flow, surface adsorption and self-assembled monolayer formation, and the effect of the inhibitor on cathodic and anodic reaction pathways. The fundamental tools required to solve the resulting modelling from a first-principles perspective are also described. Quantification of uncertainty is significant to the development of lifetime prediction models, due to their application for risk management. We therefore also discuss how uncertainty analysis can be coupled with the first-principles approach laid out in this paper. PMID:25912625

  10. Lifetime-based photoacoustic probe activation modeled by a dual methylene blue-lysine conjugate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morgounova, Ekaterina; Johnson, Sadie M.; Shao, Qi; Hackel, Benjamin; Ashkenazi, Shai

    2014-03-01

    Activatable photoacoustic probes have a promising future due to their ability to provide high-resolution, high-penetration depth information on enzyme activity in vivo. Spectral identification methods, however, suffer from heterogeneous optical properties and wavelength-dependent light attenuation in tissue, thereby limiting the effective suppression of background noise signal. Our approach is predicated on probing the excited-state lifetime of a dual-labeled methylene blue (MB) probe that changes its lifetime from short to long upon cleavage. Recently, we have reported on the ability of our system to probe the long triplet lifetime of free MB monomers in solution and to differentiate between monomers and dimers based on their lifetime contrast. Here we introduce an improvement to our system that significantly increases the system sensitivity to fast changes, and reduces the minimum resolvable lifetime down to a few nanoseconds. We applied this method to probe the excited-state lifetime of a covalently coupled dual methylene blue-lysine conjugate (MB2K) in a mixed MB/MB2K solution. Preliminary results show that a stable dimeric bond is formed between the chromophores within the conjugate, and that this conjugate is statically quenched. Examination of the transient absorption of MB2K reveals it does not exhibit a triplet excited-state lifetime, suggesting that it undergoes a fast deexcitation process directly from the singlet state. Finally, we demonstrate how the transient photoacoustic lifetime signal can be used to selectively detect the presence of MB monomers while improving background noise suppression by differentiating the lifetime of free MB dye with other absorbing structures.

  11. Lifetime effectiveness of mifamurtide addition to chemotherapy in nonmetastatic and metastatic osteosarcoma: a Markov process model analysis.

    PubMed

    Song, Hyun Jin; Lee, Jun Ah; Han, Euna; Lee, Eui-Kyung

    2015-09-01

    The mortality and progression rates in osteosarcoma differ depending on the presence of metastasis. A decision model would be useful for estimating long-term effectiveness of treatment with limited clinical trial data. The aim of this study was to explore the lifetime effectiveness of the addition of mifamurtide to chemotherapy for patients with metastatic and nonmetastatic osteosarcoma. The target population was osteosarcoma patients with or without metastasis. A Markov process model was used, whose time horizon was lifetime with a starting age of 13 years. There were five health states: disease-free (DF), recurrence, post-recurrence disease-free, post-recurrence disease-progression, and death. Transition probabilities of the starting state, DF, were calculated from the INT-0133 clinical trials for chemotherapy with and without mifamurtide. Quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) increased upon addition of mifamurtide to chemotherapy by 10.5 % (10.13 and 9.17 QALY with and without mifamurtide, respectively) and 45.2 % (7.23 and 4.98 QALY with and without mifamurtide, respectively) relative to the lifetime effectiveness of chemotherapy in nonmetastatic and metastatic osteosarcoma, respectively. Life-years gained (LYG) increased by 10.1 % (13.10 LYG with mifamurtide and 11.90 LYG without mifamurtide) in nonmetastatic patients and 42.2 % (9.43 LYG with mifamurtide and 6.63 LYG without mifamurtide) in metastatic osteosarcoma patients. The Markov model analysis showed that chemotherapy with mifamurtide improved the lifetime effectiveness compared to chemotherapy alone in both nonmetastatic and metastatic osteosarcoma. Relative effectiveness of the therapy was higher in metastatic than nonmetastatic osteosarcoma over lifetime. However, absolute lifetime effectiveness was higher in nonmetastatic than metastatic osteosarcoma. PMID:25835978

  12. Quasiparticle energies and lifetimes in a metallic chain model of a tunnel junction.

    PubMed

    Szepieniec, Mark; Yeriskin, Irene; Greer, J C

    2013-04-14

    As electronics devices scale to sub-10 nm lengths, the distinction between "device" and "electrodes" becomes blurred. Here, we study a simple model of a molecular tunnel junction, consisting of an atomic gold chain partitioned into left and right electrodes, and a central "molecule." Using a complex absorbing potential, we are able to reproduce the single-particle energy levels of the device region including a description of the effects of the semi-infinite electrodes. We then use the method of configuration interaction to explore the effect of correlations on the system's quasiparticle peaks. We find that when excitations on the leads are excluded, the device's highest occupied molecular orbital and lowest unoccupied molecular orbital quasiparticle states when including correlation are bracketed by their respective values in the Hartree-Fock (Koopmans) and ΔSCF approximations. In contrast, when excitations on the leads are included, the bracketing property no longer holds, and both the positions and the lifetimes of the quasiparticle levels change considerably, indicating that the combined effect of coupling and correlation is to alter the quasiparticle spectrum significantly relative to an isolated molecule. PMID:24981526

  13. Pitch angle dependence of the charge exchange lifetime of ring current ions in a Mead-Fairfield magnetic field model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mukherjee, G. K.; Rajaram, R.

    1989-11-01

    This paper examines the necessity of using a realistic magnetospheric magnetic field geometry in the computation of the pitch-angle dependence of the charge exchange lifetime of ring current ions. The Chamberlain (1963) model is used for the atomic hydrogen density, and the pitch-angle dependence of the charge exchange lifetime, tau, has been computed for coefficients corresponding to different levels of geomagnetic activity in the Mead-Fairfield (1975) model of magnetic field. It is shown that using the correct model of the magnetic field is as important as adopting the proper exospheric temperature in the model for the neutral hydrogen model. A local time dependence of the pitch-angle dependence of tau also results from the adoption of a realistic description of the magnetic field.

  14. Modelling lifetime cost consequences of ReSTOR® in cataract surgery in four European countries

    PubMed Central

    Lafuma, Antoine; Berdeaux, Gilles

    2008-01-01

    Background To compare the lifetime costs of liberating patients from spectacles after cataract surgery by implanting the multifocal intraocular lens (IOL) 'ReSTOR®' versus monofocal IOLs in France, Italy, Germany and Spain. Methods A Markov model was created to follow patient cohorts from cataract surgery until death. Prevalence rates of patients not needing spectacles after cataract surgery were obtained from clinical trials. Resource utilisation included implant surgery, IOLs, spectacles, visits to ophthalmologists and eye centres, transport, and time lost by patients. Economic perspectives were those of Society and Sickness Funds (SFs). Results The mean number of spectacles purchased after ReSTOR® was 1.34–1.61 and after monofocal IOLs 6.05–7.27. From the societal perspective, total cost estimates discounted by 3% were between €3,551 and €4,052 with ReSTOR® compared to €3,989 and €5,548 with monofocal IOLs. Undiscounted savings related to ReSTOR® ranged from €815 to €2,164. From the SFs' perspective total cost estimates discounted by 3% were between €2,150 and €2,524 with ReSTOR® compared to €2,324 and €2,610 with monofocal IOLs. Savings related to ReSTOR®, once costs discounted, ranged from €61 to €219. Discount and spectacle freedom prevalence rates were the most sensitive parameters. Conclusion The bulk of the savings related to ReSTOR® were realized outside the SF. From both a societal and SF perspective, savings, after a 3% discounting, achieved by liberating patients from spectacles counterbalanced the initially higher cost of ReSTOR®. ReSTOR® is a cost saving alternative to spectacles for patients requiring cataract surgery. PMID:18627594

  15. Calculation of lifetime lung cancer risks associated with radon exposure, based on various models and exposure scenarios.

    PubMed

    Hunter, Nezahat; Muirhead, Colin R; Bochicchio, Francesco; Haylock, Richard G E

    2015-09-01

    The risk of lung cancer mortality up to 75 years of age due to radon exposure has been estimated for both male and female continuing, ex- and never-smokers, based on various radon risk models and exposure scenarios. We used risk models derived from (i) the BEIR VI analysis of cohorts of radon-exposed miners, (ii) cohort and nested case-control analyses of a European cohort of uranium miners and (iii) the joint analysis of European residential radon case-control studies. Estimates of the lifetime lung cancer risk due to radon varied between these models by just over a factor of 2 and risk estimates based on models from analyses of European uranium miners exposed at comparatively low rates and of people exposed to radon in homes were broadly compatible. For a given smoking category, there was not much difference in lifetime lung cancer risk between males and females. The estimated lifetime risk of radon-induced lung cancer for exposure to a concentration of 200 Bq m(-3) was in the range 2.98-6.55% for male continuing smokers and 0.19-0.42% for male never-smokers, depending on the model used and assuming a multiplicative relationship for the joint effect of radon and smoking. Stopping smoking at age 50 years decreases the lifetime risk due to radon by around a half relative to continuing smoking, but the risk for ex-smokers remains about a factor of 5-7 higher than that for never-smokers. Under a sub-multiplicative model for the joint effect of radon and smoking, the lifetime risk of radon-induced lung cancer was still estimated to be substantially higher for continuing smokers than for never smokers. Radon mitigation-used to reduce radon concentrations at homes-can also have a substantial impact on lung cancer risk, even for persons in their 50 s; for each of continuing smokers, ex-smokers and never-smokers, radon mitigation at age 50 would lower the lifetime risk of radon-induced lung cancer by about one-third. To maximise risk reductions, smokers in high

  16. Model of lifetimes of the outer radiation belt electrons in a realistic magnetic field using realistic chorus wave parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Orlova, Ksenia; Shprits, Yuri

    2014-02-01

    The outer radiation belt electrons in the inner magnetosphere show high variability during the geomagnetically disturbed conditions. Quasi-linear diffusion theory provides both a framework for global prediction of particle loss at different energies and an understanding of the dynamics of different particle populations. It has been recently shown that the pitch angle scattering of electrons due to wave-particle interaction with chorus waves modeled in a realistic magnetic field may be significantly different from those estimated in a dipole model. In this work, we present the lifetimes of 1 keV-2 MeV electrons computed in the Tsyganenko 89 magnetic field model for the night, dawn, prenoon, and postnoon magnetic local time (MLT) sectors for different levels of geomagnetic activity and distances. The lifetimes in the realistic field are also compared to those computed in the dipole model. We develop a realistic chorus lower band and upper band wave models for each MLT sector using the recent statistical studies of wave amplitude, wave normal angle, and wave spectral density distributions as functions of magnetic latitude, distance, and Kp index. The increase of plasma trough density with increasing latitude is also included. The obtained in the Tsyganenko 89 field electron lifetimes are parameterized and can be used in 2-D/3-D/4-D convection and particle tracing codes.

  17. Modeled black carbon radiative forcing and atmospheric lifetime in AeroCom Phase II constrained by aircraft observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Samset, B. H.; Myhre, G.; Herber, A.; Kondo, Y.; Li, S.-M.; Moteki, N.; Koike, M.; Oshima, N.; Schwarz, J. P.; Balkanski, Y.; Bauer, S. E.; Bellouin, N.; Berntsen, T. K.; Bian, H.; Chin, M.; Diehl, T.; Easter, R. C.; Ghan, S. J.; Iversen, T.; Kirkevåg, A.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Lin, G.; Liu, X.; Penner, J. E.; Schulz, M.; Seland, Ø.; Skeie, R. B.; Stier, P.; Takemura, T.; Tsigaridis, K.; Zhang, K.

    2014-08-01

    Atmospheric black carbon (BC) absorbs solar radiation, and exacerbates global warming through exerting positive radiative forcing (RF). However, the contribution of BC to ongoing changes in global climate is under debate. Anthropogenic BC emissions, and the resulting distribution of BC concentration, are highly uncertain. In particular, long range transport and processes affecting BC atmospheric lifetime are poorly understood. Here we discuss whether recent assessments may have overestimated present day BC radiative forcing in remote regions. We compare vertical profiles of BC concentration from four recent aircraft measurement campaigns to simulations by 13 aerosol models participating in the AeroCom Phase II intercomparision. An atmospheric lifetime of BC of less than 5 days is shown to be essential for reproducing observations in remote ocean regions, in line with other recent studies. Adjusting model results to measurements in remote regions, and at high altitudes, leads to a 25% reduction in AeroCom Phase II median direct BC forcing, from fossil fuel and biofuel burning, over the industrial era. The sensitivity of modeled forcing to BC vertical profile and lifetime highlights an urgent need for further flight campaigns, close to sources and in remote regions, to provide improved quantification of BC effects for use in climate policy.

  18. Modelled black carbon radiative forcing and atmospheric lifetime in AeroCom Phase II constrained by aircraft observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Samset, B. H.; Myhre, G.; Herber, A.; Kondo, Y.; Li, S.-M.; Moteki, N.; Koike, M.; Oshima, N.; Schwarz, J. P.; Balkanski, Y.; Bauer, S. E.; Bellouin, N.; Berntsen, T. K.; Bian, H.; Chin, M.; Diehl, T.; Easter, R. C.; Ghan, S. J.; Iversen, T.; Kirkevåg, A.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Lin, G.; Liu, X.; Penner, J. E.; Schulz, M.; Seland, Ø.; Skeie, R. B.; Stier, P.; Takemura, T.; Tsigaridis, K.; Zhang, K.

    2014-11-01

    Atmospheric black carbon (BC) absorbs solar radiation, and exacerbates global warming through exerting positive radiative forcing (RF). However, the contribution of BC to ongoing changes in global climate is under debate. Anthropogenic BC emissions, and the resulting distribution of BC concentration, are highly uncertain. In particular, long-range transport and processes affecting BC atmospheric lifetime are poorly understood. Here we discuss whether recent assessments may have overestimated present-day BC radiative forcing in remote regions. We compare vertical profiles of BC concentration from four recent aircraft measurement campaigns to simulations by 13 aerosol models participating in the AeroCom Phase II intercomparison. An atmospheric lifetime of BC of less than 5 days is shown to be essential for reproducing observations in remote ocean regions, in line with other recent studies. Adjusting model results to measurements in remote regions, and at high altitudes, leads to a 25% reduction in AeroCom Phase II median direct BC forcing, from fossil fuel and biofuel burning, over the industrial era. The sensitivity of modelled forcing to BC vertical profile and lifetime highlights an urgent need for further flight campaigns, close to sources and in remote regions, to provide improved quantification of BC effects for use in climate policy.

  19. Chasing quicksilver: modeling the atmospheric lifetime of Hg(0)(g) in the marine boundary layer at various latitudes.

    PubMed

    Hedgecock, Ian M; Pirrone, Nicola

    2004-01-01

    The lifetime of elemental mercury in the marine boundary layer(MBL) has been studied using AMCOTS (Atmospheric Mercury Chemistry Over The Sea), a box model of MBL photochemistry including aerosols and detailed mercury chemistry. Recently measured Hg(0)(g) oxidation reactions have been included, and the studies were performed as a function of latitude, time of year, boundary layer liquid water content (LWC) and cloud optical depth. The results show that Hg has the shortest lifetime when air temperatures are low and sunlight and deliquescent aerosol particles are plentiful. Thus the modeled lifetime for clear-sky conditions is actually shorter at mid-latitudes and high latitudes than near the equator, and for a given latitude and time of year, cooler temperatures enhance the rate of Hg oxidation. Under typical summer conditions (for a given latitude) of temperature and cloudiness, the lifetime (tau) of Hg(0)(g) in the MBL is calculated to be around 10 days at all latitudes between the equator and 60 degrees N. This is much shorter than the generally accepted atmospheric residence time for Hg(0)(g) of a year or more. Given the relatively stable background concentrations of Hg(0)(g) which have been measured, continual replenishment of Hg(0)(g) must take place, suggesting a "multihop" mechanism for the distribution of Hg, rather than solely aeolian transport with little or no chemical transformation between source and receptor. Inclusion of an empirical Hg(0)(g) emission factor related to insolation was used to stabilize the Hg(0)(g) concentration in the model, and the emission rates necessarily agree well with estimated emission fluxes for the open ocean. PMID:14740719

  20. Lifetime Evaluation of Oil-immersed Power Capacitor using Conversion Factor between Model Sample and Practical Equipment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Higashiyama, Masakazu; Akiyama, Ken-Ichi; Maeda, Teruhiko; Nakamura, Shuhei; Umemura, Hiro; Hikita, Masayuki

    In this paper, the lifetime estimation method was discussed in view of Weibull distribution. For the case of power capacitor, the conversion factor between model specimen and practical equipment can be calculated by using the ratio of the electrode edge length of them and the Weibull shape parameter of the normalized V-t data obtained from the model samples. The actual failure rate of the power capacitor with PP film/capacitor-paper composite dielectric system was found to agree well with the estimated failure rate from the model samples.

  1. Evidence for an increase in the ozone photochemical lifetime in the eastern United States using a regional air quality model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goldberg, Daniel L.; Vinciguerra, Timothy P.; Hosley, Kyle M.; Loughner, Christopher P.; Canty, Timothy P.; Salawitch, Ross J.; Dickerson, Russell R.

    2015-12-01

    Measures to control surface ozone rely on quantifying production attributable to local versus regional (upwind) emissions. Here we simulate the relative contribution of local (i.e., within a particular state) and regional sources of surface ozone in the eastern United States (66-94°W longitude) for July 2002, 2011, and 2018 using the Comprehensive Air-quality Model with Extensions (CAMx). To determine how emissions and chemistry within the domain affect the production, loss, lifetime, and transport of trace gases, we initialize our model with identical boundary conditions in each simulation. We find that the photochemical lifetime of ozone has increased as emissions have decreased. The contribution of ozone from outside the domain (boundary condition ozone, BCO3) to local surface mixing ratios increases in an absolute sense by 1-2 ppbv between 2002 and 2018 due to the longer lifetime of ozone. The photochemical lifetime of ozone lengthens because the two primary gas phase sinks for odd oxygen (Ox ≈ NO2 + O3)—attack by hydroperoxyl radicals (HO2) on ozone and formation of nitrate—weaken with decreasing pollutant emissions. The relative role of BCO3 will also increase. For example, BCO3 represents 34.5%, 38.8%, and 43.6% of surface ozone in the Baltimore, MD, region during July 2002, 2011, and 2018 means, respectively. This unintended consequence of air quality regulation impacts attainment of the National Ambient Air Quality Standard for surface ozone because the spatial and temporal scales of photochemical smog increase; the influence of pollutants transported between states and into the eastern U.S. will likely play a greater role in the future.

  2. Monte Carlo mixture model of lifetime cancer incidence risk from radiation exposure on shuttle and international space station

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Peterson, L. E.; Cucinotta, F. A.; Wilson, J. W. (Principal Investigator)

    1999-01-01

    Estimating uncertainty in lifetime cancer risk for human exposure to space radiation is a unique challenge. Conventional risk assessment with low-linear-energy-transfer (LET)-based risk from Japanese atomic bomb survivor studies may be inappropriate for relativistic protons and nuclei in space due to track structure effects. This paper develops a Monte Carlo mixture model (MCMM) for transferring additive, National Institutes of Health multiplicative, and multiplicative excess cancer incidence risks based on Japanese atomic bomb survivor data to determine excess incidence risk for various US astronaut exposure profiles. The MCMM serves as an anchor point for future risk projection methods involving biophysical models of DNA damage from space radiation. Lifetime incidence risks of radiation-induced cancer for the MCMM based on low-LET Japanese data for nonleukemia (all cancers except leukemia) were 2.77 (90% confidence limit, 0.75-11.34) for males exposed to 1 Sv at age 45 and 2.20 (90% confidence limit, 0.59-10.12) for males exposed at age 55. For females, mixture model risks for nonleukemia exposed separately to 1 Sv at ages of 45 and 55 were 2.98 (90% confidence limit, 0.90-11.70) and 2.44 (90% confidence limit, 0.70-10.30), respectively. Risks for high-LET 200 MeV protons (LET=0.45 keV/micrometer), 1 MeV alpha-particles (LET=100 keV/micrometer), and 600 MeV iron particles (LET=180 keV/micrometer) were scored on a per particle basis by determining the particle fluence required for an average of one particle per cell nucleus of area 100 micrometer(2). Lifetime risk per proton was 2.68x10(-2)% (90% confidence limit, 0.79x10(-3)%-0. 514x10(-2)%). For alpha-particles, lifetime risk was 14.2% (90% confidence limit, 2.5%-31.2%). Conversely, lifetime risk per iron particle was 23.7% (90% confidence limit, 4.5%-53.0%). Uncertainty in the DDREF for high-LET particles may be less than that for low-LET radiation because typically there is very little dose-rate dependence

  3. Monte Carlo mixture model of lifetime cancer incidence risk from radiation exposure on shuttle and international space station.

    PubMed

    Peterson, L E; Cucinotta, F A

    1999-12-01

    Estimating uncertainty in lifetime cancer risk for human exposure to space radiation is a unique challenge. Conventional risk assessment with low-linear-energy-transfer (LET)-based risk from Japanese atomic bomb survivor studies may be inappropriate for relativistic protons and nuclei in space due to track structure effects. This paper develops a Monte Carlo mixture model (MCMM) for transferring additive, National Institutes of Health multiplicative, and multiplicative excess cancer incidence risks based on Japanese atomic bomb survivor data to determine excess incidence risk for various US astronaut exposure profiles. The MCMM serves as an anchor point for future risk projection methods involving biophysical models of DNA damage from space radiation. Lifetime incidence risks of radiation-induced cancer for the MCMM based on low-LET Japanese data for nonleukemia (all cancers except leukemia) were 2.77 (90% confidence limit, 0.75-11.34) for males exposed to 1 Sv at age 45 and 2.20 (90% confidence limit, 0.59-10.12) for males exposed at age 55. For females, mixture model risks for nonleukemia exposed separately to 1 Sv at ages of 45 and 55 were 2.98 (90% confidence limit, 0.90-11.70) and 2.44 (90% confidence limit, 0.70-10.30), respectively. Risks for high-LET 200 MeV protons (LET=0.45 keV/micrometer), 1 MeV alpha-particles (LET=100 keV/micrometer), and 600 MeV iron particles (LET=180 keV/micrometer) were scored on a per particle basis by determining the particle fluence required for an average of one particle per cell nucleus of area 100 micrometer(2). Lifetime risk per proton was 2.68x10(-2)% (90% confidence limit, 0.79x10(-3)%-0. 514x10(-2)%). For alpha-particles, lifetime risk was 14.2% (90% confidence limit, 2.5%-31.2%). Conversely, lifetime risk per iron particle was 23.7% (90% confidence limit, 4.5%-53.0%). Uncertainty in the DDREF for high-LET particles may be less than that for low-LET radiation because typically there is very little dose-rate dependence

  4. Effects of Orbital Lifetime Reduction on the Long-Term Earth Satellite Population as Modeled by EVOLVE 4.0

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Krisko, Paula H.; Opiela, John N.; Liou, Jer-Chyi; Anz-Meador, Phillip D.; Theall, Jeffrey R.

    1999-01-01

    The latest update of the NASA orbital debris environment model, EVOLVE 4.0, has been used to study the effect of various proposed debris mitigation measures, including the NASA 25-year guideline. EVOLVE 4.0, which includes updates of the NASA breakup, solar activity, and the orbit propagator models, a GEO analysis option, and non-fragmentation debris source models, allows for the statistical modeling and predicted growth of the particle population >1 mm in characteristic length in LEO and GEO orbits. The initial implementation of this &odel has been to study the sensitivity of the overall LEO debris environment to mitigation measures designed to limit the lifetime of intact objects in LEO orbits. The mitigation measures test matrix for this study included several commonly accepted testing schemes, i.e., the variance of the maximum LEO lifetime from 10 to 50 years, the date of the initial implementation of this policy, the shut off of all explosions at some specified date, and the inclusion of disposal orbits. All are timely studies in that all scenarios have been suggested by researchers and satellite operators as options for the removal of debris from LEO orbits.

  5. Neutron lifetimes behavior analysis considering the two-region kinetic model in the IPEN/MB-01 reactor

    SciTech Connect

    Gonnelli, Eduardo; Diniz, Ricardo

    2014-11-11

    This is a complementary work about the behavior analysis of the neutron lifetimes that was developed in the IPEN/MB-01 nuclear reactor facility. The macroscopic neutron noise technique was experimentally employed using pulse mode detectors for two stages of control rods insertion, where a total of twenty levels of subcriticality have been carried out. It was also considered that the neutron reflector density was treated as an additional group of delayed neutrons, being a sophisticated approach in the two-region kinetic theoretical model.

  6. A population-based Habitable Zone perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zsom, Andras

    2015-08-01

    What can we tell about exoplanet habitability if currently only the stellar properties, planet radius, and the incoming stellar flux are known? The Habitable Zone (HZ) is the region around stars where planets can harbor liquid water on their surfaces. The HZ is traditionally conceived as a sharp region around the star because it is calculated for one planet with specific properties e.g., Earth-like or desert planets , or rocky planets with H2 atmospheres. Such planet-specific approach is limiting because the planets’ atmospheric and geophysical properties, which influence the surface climate and the presence of liquid water, are currently unknown but expected to be diverse.A statistical HZ description is outlined which does not select one specific planet type. Instead the atmospheric and surface properties of exoplanets are treated as random variables and a continuous range of planet scenarios are considered. Various probability density functions are assigned to each observationally unconstrained random variable, and a combination of Monte Carlo sampling and climate modeling is used to generate synthetic exoplanet populations with known surface climates. Then, the properties of the liquid water bearing subpopulation is analyzed.Given our current observational knowledge of small exoplanets, the HZ takes the form of a weakly-constrained but smooth probability function. The model shows that the HZ has an inner edge: it is unlikely that planets receiving two-three times more stellar radiation than Earth can harbor liquid water. But a clear outer edge is not seen: a planet that receives a fraction of Earth's stellar radiation (1-10%) can be habitable, if the greenhouse effect of the atmosphere is strong enough. The main benefit of the population-based approach is that it will be refined over time as new data on exoplanets and their atmospheres become available.

  7. Modeling the expected lifetime and evolution of a deme's principal genetic sequence.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clark, Brian

    2014-03-01

    The principal genetic sequence (PGS) is the most common genetic sequence in a deme. The PGS changes over time because new genetic sequences are created by inversions, compete with the current PGS, and a small fraction become PGSs. A set of coupled difference equations provides a description of the evolution of the PGS distribution function in an ensemble of demes. Solving the set of equations produces the survival probability of a new genetic sequence and the expected lifetime of an existing PGS as a function of inversion size and rate, recombination rate, and deme size. Additionally, the PGS distribution function is used to explain the transition pathway from old to new PGSs. We compare these results to a cellular automaton based representation of a deme and the drosophila species, D. melanogaster and D. yakuba.

  8. Multi-stress factor model for cycle lifetime prediction of lithium ion batteries with shallow-depth discharge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cui, Yingzhi; Du, Chunyu; Yin, Geping; Gao, Yunzhi; Zhang, Lingling; Guan, Ting; Yang, Lijie; Wang, Fuping

    2015-04-01

    Accurate prediction of service life is a major challenge for the reliable application of lithium ion batteries in satellite and electric vehicle fields. This paper carries out systematic orthogonal experiments to extract key stress factor of capacity loss for commercial LiCoO2/MCMB (mesocarbon microbeads) lithium ion batteries cycled in shallow-depth discharge. Further, single stress factor and multi-stress factor models consisting of temperature, discharge rate, taper voltage and depth of discharge for cycle life prediction of lithium ion batteries are developed. The physicochemical significance of the life prediction model is interpreted by electrochemical analysis. The practical applicability of the models is validated by experimental data. Our multi-stress factor model is helpful to predicting the lifetime of LIBs with shallow-depth discharge, and to optimizing the operation regime of LIBs for electric vehicle or satellite use.

  9. A model for predicting the wearout lifetime of the LeRC/Hughes 30-cm mercury ion thruster

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Beattie, J. R.

    1979-01-01

    An investigation of parameters that affect the erosion rates of 30-cm-diameter mercury-ion-thruster components is described. A sputter-erosion model is formulated in terms of the design, operational, and material characteristics of the thruster. The erosion model is applied to the screen electrode, which is assumed to be the life-limiting component of the 30-cm thruster, resulting in a model of wearout lifetime. Results of short-term erosion-rate tests are presented that illustrate the dependence of component wear rates on variables such as discharge voltage, accelerator-grid open-area fraction, ion energy, electrode material, and the partial pressure of facility residual gases such as nitrogen. Test results are compared with wearout rates predicted by the sputter-erosion model.

  10. Simulating star clusters with the AMUSE software framework. I. Dependence of cluster lifetimes on model assumptions and cluster dissolution modes

    SciTech Connect

    Whitehead, Alfred J.; McMillan, Stephen L. W.; Vesperini, Enrico; Portegies Zwart, Simon

    2013-12-01

    We perform a series of simulations of evolving star clusters using the Astrophysical Multipurpose Software Environment (AMUSE), a new community-based multi-physics simulation package, and compare our results to existing work. These simulations model a star cluster beginning with a King model distribution and a selection of power-law initial mass functions and contain a tidal cutoff. They are evolved using collisional stellar dynamics and include mass loss due to stellar evolution. After studying and understanding that the differences between AMUSE results and results from previous studies are understood, we explored the variation in cluster lifetimes due to the random realization noise introduced by transforming a King model to specific initial conditions. This random realization noise can affect the lifetime of a simulated star cluster by up to 30%. Two modes of star cluster dissolution were identified: a mass evolution curve that contains a runaway cluster dissolution with a sudden loss of mass, and a dissolution mode that does not contain this feature. We refer to these dissolution modes as 'dynamical' and 'relaxation' dominated, respectively. For Salpeter-like initial mass functions, we determined the boundary between these two modes in terms of the dynamical and relaxation timescales.

  11. Modelled Black Carbon Radiative Forcing and Atmospheric Lifetime in AeroCom Phase II Constrained by Aircraft Observations

    SciTech Connect

    Samset, B. H.; Myhre, G.; Herber, Andreas; Kondo, Yutaka; Li, Shao-Meng; Moteki, N.; Koike, Makoto; Oshima, N.; Schwarz, Joshua P.; Balkanski, Y.; Bauer, S.; Bellouin, N.; Berntsen, T.; Bian, Huisheng; Chin, M.; Diehl, Thomas; Easter, Richard C.; Ghan, Steven J.; Iversen, T.; Kirkevag, A.; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lin, Guang; Liu, Xiaohong; Penner, Joyce E.; Schulz, M.; Seland, O.; Skeie, R. B.; Stier, P.; Takemura, T.; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Zhang, Kai

    2014-11-27

    Black carbon (BC) aerosols absorb solar radiation, and are generally held to exacerbate global warming through exerting a positive radiative forcing1. However, the total contribution of BC to the ongoing changes in global climate is presently under debate2-8. Both anthropogenic BC emissions and the resulting spatial and temporal distribution of BC concentration are highly uncertain2,9. In particular, long range transport and processes affecting BC atmospheric lifetime are poorly understood, leading to large estimated uncertainty in BC concentration at high altitudes and far from emission sources10. These uncertainties limit our ability to quantify both the historical, present and future anthropogenic climate impact of BC. Here we compare vertical profiles of BC concentration from four recent aircraft measurement campaigns with 13 state of the art aerosol models, and show that recent assessments may have overestimated present day BC radiative forcing. Further, an atmospheric lifetime of BC of less than 5 days is shown to be essential for reproducing observations in transport dominated remote regions. Adjusting model results to measurements in remote regions, and at high altitudes, leads to a 25% reduction in the multi-model median direct BC forcing from fossil fuel and biofuel burning over the industrial era.

  12. Robust Bayesian Fluorescence Lifetime Estimation, Decay Model Selection and Instrument Response Determination for Low-Intensity FLIM Imaging

    PubMed Central

    Rowley, Mark I.; Coolen, Anthonius C. C.; Vojnovic, Borivoj; Barber, Paul R.

    2016-01-01

    We present novel Bayesian methods for the analysis of exponential decay data that exploit the evidence carried by every detected decay event and enables robust extension to advanced processing. Our algorithms are presented in the context of fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy (FLIM) and particular attention has been paid to model the time-domain system (based on time-correlated single photon counting) with unprecedented accuracy. We present estimates of decay parameters for mono- and bi-exponential systems, offering up to a factor of two improvement in accuracy compared to previous popular techniques. Results of the analysis of synthetic and experimental data are presented, and areas where the superior precision of our techniques can be exploited in Förster Resonance Energy Transfer (FRET) experiments are described. Furthermore, we demonstrate two advanced processing methods: decay model selection to choose between differing models such as mono- and bi-exponential, and the simultaneous estimation of instrument and decay parameters. PMID:27355322

  13. Collisional lifetimes of meteoroids

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Soja, R. H.; Schwarzkopf, G. J.; Sommer, M.; Vaubaillon, J.; Albin, T.; Rodmann, J.; Grün, E.; Srama, R.

    2016-01-01

    Collisions of meteoroids with interplanetary dust grain fragments particles, dispersing larger particles amongst lower mass intervals. Here we use the method of Grün et al. (1985) and the IMEM interplanetary dust model to calculate the collisional lifetimes for different orbits, and for particles in different meteor showers. The timescales are usually long - of order 10^4 years for 1mm grains on Jupiter-family and Hally-type comet orbits. However, near-sun orbits particles suffer more frequent collisions and therefore have much shorter lifetimes. We discuss factors that affect the accuracy of these calculations.

  14. Lifetime PCB 153 bioaccumulation and pharmacokinetics in pilot whales: Bayesian population PBPK modeling and Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations.

    PubMed

    Weijs, Liesbeth; Roach, Anthony C; Yang, Raymond S H; McDougall, Robin; Lyons, Michael; Housand, Conrad; Tibax, Detlef; Manning, Therese; Chapman, John; Edge, Katelyn; Covaci, Adrian; Blust, Ronny

    2014-01-01

    Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models for wild animal populations such as marine mammals typically have a high degree of model uncertainty and variability due to the scarcity of information and the embryonic nature of this field. Parameters values used in marine mammals models are usually taken from other mammalian species (e.g. rats or mice) and might not be entirely suitable to properly explain the kinetics of pollutants in marine mammals. Therefore, several parameters for a PBPK model for the bioaccumulation and pharmacokinetics of PCB 153 in long-finned pilot whales were estimated in the present study using the Bayesian approach executed with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. This method uses 'prior' information of the parameters, either from the literature or from previous model runs. The advantage is that this method uses such 'prior' parameters to calculate probability distributions to determine 'posterior' values that best explain the field observations. Those field observations or datasets were PCB 153 concentrations in blubber of long-finned pilot whales from Sandy Cape and Stanley, Tasmania, Australia. The model predictions showed an overall decrease in PCB 153 levels in blubber over the lifetime of the pilot whales. All parameters from the Sandy Cape model were updated using the Stanley dataset, except for the concentration of PCB 153 in the milk. The model presented here is a promising and preliminary start to PBPK modeling in long-finned pilot whales that would provide a basis for non-invasive studies in these protected marine mammals. PMID:24080004

  15. On the Connectivity, Lifetime and Hop Count of Routes Determined Using the City Section and Manhattan Mobility Models for Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meghanathan, Natarajan

    The high-level contribution of this paper is a simulation based analysis of the network connectivity, hop count and lifetime of the routes determined for vehicular ad hoc networks (VANETs) using the City Section and Manhattan mobility models. The Random Waypoint mobility model is used as a benchmark in the simulation studies. Two kinds of paths are determined on the sequence of static graphs representing the topology over the duration of the network session: paths with the minimum hop count (using the Dijkstra algorithm) and stable paths with the longest lifetime (using our recently proposed OptPathTrans algorithm). Simulation results indicate that the City Section model provided higher network connectivity compared to the Manhattan model for all the network scenarios. Minimum hop paths and stable paths determined under the Manhattan model have a smaller lifetime and larger hop count compared to those determined using the City Section and Random Waypoint mobility models.

  16. BENEFITS AND COSTS OF SUBSTANCE ABUSE TREATMENT PROGRAMS FOR STATE PRISON INMATES: RESULTS FROM A LIFETIME SIMULATION MODEL

    PubMed Central

    ZARKIN, GARY A.; COWELL, ALEXANDER J.; HICKS, KATHERINE A.; MILLS, MICHAEL J.; BELENKO, STEVEN; DUNLAP, LAURA J.; HOUSER, KIMBERLY A.; KEYES, VINCE

    2011-01-01

    SUMMARY Reflecting drug use patterns and criminal justice policies throughout the 1990s and 2000s, prisons hold a disproportionate number of society’s drug abusers. Approximately 50% of state prisoners meet the criteria for a diagnosis of drug abuse or dependence, but only 10% receive medically based drug treatment. Because of the link between substance abuse and crime, treating substance abusing and dependent state prisoners while incarcerated has the potential to yield substantial economic benefits. In this paper, we simulate the lifetime costs and benefits of improving prison-based substance abuse treatment and post-release aftercare for a cohort of state prisoners. Our model captures the dynamics of substance abuse as a chronic disease; estimates the benefits of substance abuse treatment over individuals’ lifetimes; and tracks the costs of crime and criminal justice costs related to policing, adjudication, and incarceration. We estimate net societal benefits and cost savings to the criminal justice system of the current treatment system and five policy scenarios. We find that four of the five policy scenarios provide positive net societal benefits and cost savings to the criminal justice system relative to the current treatment system. Our study demonstrates the societal gains to improving the drug treatment system for state prisoners. PMID:21506193

  17. Predicting the lifetime of organic vapor cartridges exposed to volatile organic compound mixtures using a partial differential equations model.

    PubMed

    Vuong, François; Chauveau, Romain; Grevillot, Georges; Marsteau, Stéphanie; Silvente, Eric; Vallieres, Cécile

    2016-09-01

    In this study, equilibria, breakthrough curves, and breakthrough times were predicted for three binary mixtures of four volatile organic compounds (VOCs) using a model based on partial differential equations of dynamic adsorption coupling a mass balance, a simple Linear Driving Force (LDF) hypothesis to describe the kinetics, and the well-known Extended-Langmuir (EL) equilibrium model. The model aims to predict with a limited complexity, the BTCs of respirator cartridges exposed to binary vapor mixtures from equilibria and kinetics data obtained from single component. In the model, multicomponent mass transfer was simplified to use only single dynamic adsorption data. The EL expression used in this study predicted equilibria with relatively good accuracy for acetone/ethanol and ethanol/cyclohexane mixtures, but the prediction of cyclohexane uptake when mixed with heptane is less satisfactory. The BTCs given by the model were compared to experimental BTCs to determine the accuracy of the model and the impact of the approximation on mass transfer coefficients. From BTCs, breakthrough times at 10% of the exposure concentration t10% were determined. All t10% were predicted within 20% of the experimental values, and 63% of the breakthrough times were predicted within a 10% error. This study demonstrated that a simple mass balance combined with kinetic approximations is sufficient to predict lifetime for respirator cartridges exposed to VOC mixtures. It also showed that a commonly adopted approach to describe multicomponent adsorption based on volatility of VOC rather than adsorption equilibrium greatly overestimated the breakthrough times. PMID:27028086

  18. Type-II seesaw dominance in nonsupersymmetric and split-supersymmetry SO(10) models and proton lifetime

    SciTech Connect

    Mohapatra, R. N.; Parida, Mina K.

    2011-11-01

    Recently type-II seesaw in a supersymmetricSO(10) framework has been found useful in explaining large solar and atmospheric mixing angles as well as a larger value of {theta}{sub 13} while unifying quark and lepton masses. An important question in these models is whether there exists consistency between coupling unification and type-II seesaw dominance. Scenarios where this consistency can be demonstrated have been given in a SUSY framework. In this paper we give examples where type-II dominance occurs in SO(10) models without supersymmetry but with additional TeV-scale particles and also in models with split-supersymmetry. Grand unification is realized in a two step process via breaking of SO(10) to SU(5) and then to a TeV-scale standard model supplemented by extra fields and an SU(5) Higgs multiplet 15{sub H} at a scale of about 10{sup 12} GeV to give a type-II seesaw. The predictions for proton lifetime in these models are in the range {tau}{sub p}{sup 0}=2x10{sup 35} yrs. to 6x10{sup 35} yrs. A number of recent numerical fits to GUT-scale fermion masses can be accommodated within this model.

  19. Modelling impacts of performance on the probability of reproducing, and thereby on productive lifespan, allow prediction of lifetime efficiency in dairy cows.

    PubMed

    Phuong, H N; Blavy, P; Martin, O; Schmidely, P; Friggens, N C

    2016-01-01

    Reproductive success is a key component of lifetime efficiency - which is the ratio of energy in milk (MJ) to energy intake (MJ) over the lifespan, of cows. At the animal level, breeding and feeding management can substantially impact milk yield, body condition and energy balance of cows, which are known as major contributors to reproductive failure in dairy cattle. This study extended an existing lifetime performance model to incorporate the impacts that performance changes due to changing breeding and feeding strategies have on the probability of reproducing and thereby on the productive lifespan, and thus allow the prediction of a cow's lifetime efficiency. The model is dynamic and stochastic, with an individual cow being the unit modelled and one day being the unit of time. To evaluate the model, data from a French study including Holstein and Normande cows fed high-concentrate diets and data from a Scottish study including Holstein cows selected for high and average genetic merit for fat plus protein that were fed high- v. low-concentrate diets were used. Generally, the model consistently simulated productive and reproductive performance of various genotypes of cows across feeding systems. In the French data, the model adequately simulated the reproductive performance of Holsteins but significantly under-predicted that of Normande cows. In the Scottish data, conception to first service was comparably simulated, whereas interval traits were slightly under-predicted. Selection for greater milk production impaired the reproductive performance and lifespan but not lifetime efficiency. The definition of lifetime efficiency used in this model did not include associated costs or herd-level effects. Further works should include such economic indicators to allow more accurate simulation of lifetime profitability in different production scenarios. PMID:26301951

  20. Time-dependent model of the Martian atmosphere for use in orbit lifetime and sustenance studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Culp, R. D.; Stewart, A. I.

    1984-01-01

    A time-dependent model of the Martian atmosphere suitable for calculation of long-term aerodynamic effects on low altitude satellites is presented. The atmospheric model is both position dependent, through latitude and longitude effects, and time dependent. The time dependency includes diurnal and seasonal effects, effects of annual motion, long and short term solar activity effects, and periodic dust storm effects. Nine constituent gases are included in the model. Uncertainties in exospheric temperature, turbidity, and turbopause altitude are used to produce bounds on the expected density. A computer model - a Fortran subroutine which, when given the Julian date, Cartesian position of the sun and the spacecraft in aerocentric coordinates, returns the local values of mass density, temperature, scale height, and upper and lower bounds on the mass density is presented.

  1. Bacterial ice nuclei impact cloud lifetime and radiative properties and reduce atmospheric heat loss in the BRAMS simulation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Costa, Tassio S.; Gonçalves, Fábio L. T.; Yamasoe, Marcia A.; Martins, Jorge A.; Morris, Cindy E.

    2014-08-01

    This study examines the effect of the bacterial species Pseudomonas syringae acting as ice nuclei (IN) on cloud properties to understand its impact on local radiative budget and heating rates. These bacteria may become active IN at temperatures as warm as -2 °C. Numerical simulations were developed using the Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Model System (BRAMS). To investigate the isolated effect of bacterial IN, four scenarios were created considering only homogeneous and bacterial ice nucleation, with 1, 10 and 100 IN per cubic meter of cloud volume and one with no bacteria. Moreover, two other scenarios were generated: the BRAMS default parameterization and its combination with bacterial IN. The model reproduced a strong convective cell over São Paulo on 3 March 2003. Results showed that bacterial IN may change cloud evolution as well as its microphysical properties, which in turn influence cloud radiative properties. For example, the reflected shortwave irradiance over an averaged domain in a scenario considering bacterial IN added to the BRAMS default parameterization was 14% lower than if bacteria were not considered. Heating rates can also be impacted, especially due to differences in cloud lifetime. Results suggest that the omission of bacterial IN in numerical models, including global cloud models, could neglect relevant ice nucleation processes that potentially influence cloud radiative properties.

  2. An upgraded drift-diffusion model for evaluating the carrier lifetimes in radiation-damaged semiconductor detectors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcia Lopez, J.; Jimenez-Ramos, M. C.; Rodriguez-Ramos, M.; Forneris, J.; Ceballos, J.

    2016-03-01

    The transport properties of a series of n- and p-type Si diodes have been studied by the ion beam induced charge (IBIC) technique using a 4 MeV proton microbeam. The samples were irradiated with 17 MeV protons at fluences ranging from 1 × 1012 to 1 × 1013 p/cm2 in order to produce a uniform profile of defects with depth. The analysis of the charge collection efficiency (CCE) as a function of the reverse bias voltage has been carried out using an upgraded drift-diffusion (D-D) model which takes into account the possibility of carrier recombination not only in the neutral substrate, as the simple D-D model assumes, but also within the depletion region. This new approach for calculating the CCE is fundamental when the drift length of carriers cannot be considered as much greater that the thickness of the detector due to the ion induced damage. From our simulations, we have obtained the values of the carrier lifetimes for the pristine and irradiated diodes, which have allowed us to calculate the effective trapping cross sections using the one dimension Shockley-Read-Hall model. The results of our calculations have been compared to the data obtained using a recently developed Monte Carlo code for the simulation of IBIC analysis, based on the probabilistic interpretation of the excess carrier continuity equations.

  3. Microstructurally based thermomechanical fatigue lifetime model of solder joints for electronic applications

    SciTech Connect

    Frear, D.R.; Rashid, M.M.; Burchett, S.N.

    1993-07-01

    We present a new methodology for predicting the fatigue life of solder joints for electronics applications. This approach involves integration of experimental and computational techniques. The first stage involves correlating the manufacturing and processing parameters with the starting microstructure of the solder joint. The second stage involves a series of experiments that characterize the evolution of the microstructure during thermal cycling. The third stage consists of a computer modeling and simulation effort that utilizes the starting microstructure and experimental data to produce a reliability prediction of the solder joint. This approach is an improvement over current methodologies because it incorporates the microstructure and properties of the solder directly into the model and allows these properties to evolve as the microstructure changes during fatigue.

  4. Autoregressive-model-based fluorescence-lifetime measurements by phase-modulation fluorometry using a pulsed-excitation light source and a high-gain photomultiplier tube.

    PubMed

    Iwata, Tetsuo; Ito, Ritsuki; Mizutani, Yasuhiro; Araki, Tsutomu

    2009-11-01

    We propose a novel method for measuring fluorescence lifetimes by use of a pulsed-excitation light source and an ordinary or a high-gain photomultiplier tube (PMT) with a high-load resistor. In order to obtain the values of fluorescence lifetimes, we adopt a normal data-processing procedure used in phase-modulation fluorometry. We apply an autoregressive (AR)-model-based data-analysis technique to fluorescence- and reference-response time-series data obtained from the PMT in order to derive plural values of phase differences at a repetition frequency of the pulsed-excitation light source and its harmonic ones. The connection of the high-load resistor enhances sensitivity in signal detection in a certain condition. Introduction of the AR-model-based data-analysis technique improves precision in estimating the values of fluorescence lifetimes. Depending on the value of the load resistor and that of the repetition frequency, plural values of fluorescence lifetimes are obtained at one time by utilizing the phase information of harmonic frequencies. Because the proposed measurement system is simple to construct, it might be effective when we need to know approximate values of fluorescence lifetimes readily, such as in the field of biochemistry for a screening purpose. PMID:19891834

  5. Lifetime-based tomographic multiplexing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raymond, Scott B.; Boas, David A.; Bacskai, Brian J.; Kumar, Anand T. N.

    2010-07-01

    Near-infrared (NIR) fluorescence tomography of multiple fluorophores has previously been limited by the bandwidth of the NIR spectral regime and the broad emission spectra of most NIR fluorophores. We describe in vivo tomography of three spectrally overlapping fluorophores using fluorescence lifetime-based separation. Time-domain images are acquired using a voltage-gated, intensified charge-coupled device (CCD) in free-space transmission geometry with 750 nm Ti:sapphire laser excitation. Lifetime components are fit from the asymptotic portion of fluorescence decay curve and reconstructed separately with a lifetime-adjusted forward model. We use this system to test the in vivo lifetime multiplexing suitability of commercially available fluorophores, and demonstrate lifetime multiplexing in solution mixtures and in nude mice. All of the fluorophores tested exhibit nearly monoexponential decays, with narrow in vivo lifetime distributions suitable for lifetime multiplexing. Quantitative separation of two fluorophores with lifetimes of 1.1 and 1.37 ns is demonstrated for relative concentrations of 1:5. Finally, we demonstrate tomographic imaging of two and three fluorophores in nude mice with fluorophores that localize to distinct organ systems. This technique should be widely applicable to imaging multiple NIR fluorophores in 3-D.

  6. Model prediction for ranking lead-acid batteries according to expected lifetime in renewable energy systems and autonomous power-supply systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schiffer, Julia; Sauer, Dirk Uwe; Bindner, Henrik; Cronin, Tom; Lundsager, Per; Kaiser, Rudi

    Predicting the lifetime of lead-acid batteries in applications with irregular operating conditions such as partial state-of-charge cycling, varying depth-of-discharge and different times between full charging is known as a difficult task. Experimental investigations in the laboratory are difficult because each application has its own specific operation profile. Therefore, an experimental investigation is necessary for each application and, moreover, for each operation strategy. This paper presents a lifetime model that allows comparison of the impact of different operating conditions, different system sizing and different battery technologies on battery lifetime. It is a tool for system designers and system operators to select appropriate batteries, to do a proper system design (sizing of the battery, power generators and loads), and to implement an optimized operation strategy (end-of-charge voltage, frequency of full charging, gassing periods, maximum depth-of-discharge). The model is a weighted Ah throughput approach based on the assumption that operating conditions are typically more severe than those used in standard tests of cycling and float lifetime. The wear depends on the depth-of-discharge, the current rate, the existing acid stratification, and the time since the last full charging. The actual Ah throughput is continuously multiplied by a weight factor that represents the actual operating conditions. Even though the modelling approach is mainly heuristic, all of the effects that are taken into account are based on a detailed analysis and understanding of ageing processes in lead-acid batteries. The 'normal' user can adapt the model to different battery types simply from the data sheet information on cycle lifetime and float lifetime.

  7. Genetic parameters for various random regression models to describe total sperm cells per ejaculate over the reproductive lifetime of boars.

    PubMed

    Oh, S H; See, M T; Long, T E; Galvin, J M

    2006-03-01

    The objective of this study was to model the variances and covariances of total sperm cells per ejaculate (TSC) over the reproductive lifetime of AI boars. Data from boars (n = 834) selected for AI were provided by Smithfield Premium Genetics. The total numbers of records and animals were 19,629 and 1,736, respectively. Parameters were estimated for TSC by age of boar classification with a random regression model using the Simplex method and DxMRR procedures. The model included breed, collector, and year-season as fixed effects. Random effects were additive genetic, permanent environmental effect of boar, and residual. Observations were removed when the number of data at a given age of boar classification was < 10 records. Preliminary evaluations showed the best fit with fifth-order polynomials, indicating that the best model would have fifth-order fixed regression and fifth-order random regressions for animal and permanent environmental effects. Random regression models were fitted to evaluate all combinations of first- through seventh-order polynomial covariance functions. Goodness of fit for the models was tested using Akaike's Information Criterion and the Schwarz Criterion. The maximum log likelihood value was observed for sixth-, fifth-, and seventh-order polynomials for fixed, additive genetic, and permanent environmental effects, respectively. However, the best fit as determined by Akaike's Information Criterion and the Schwarz Criterion was by fitting sixth-, fourth-, and seventh-order polynomials; and fourth-, second-, and seventh-order polynomials for fixed, additive genetic, and permanent environmental effects, respectively. Heritability estimates for TSC ranged from 0.27 to 0.48 across age of boar classifications. In addition, heritability for TSC tended to increase with age of boar classification. PMID:16478945

  8. Physical comorbidities in men with mood and anxiety disorders: a population-based study

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background The mind-body nexus has been a topic of growing interest. Further data are however required to understand the specific relationship between mood and anxiety disorders and individual physical health conditions, and to verify whether these psychiatric disorders are linked to overall medical burden. Methods This study examined data collected from 942 men, 20 to 97 years old, participating in the Geelong Osteoporosis Study. A lifetime history of mood and anxiety disorders was identified using the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV-TR Research Version, Non-patient edition (SCID-I/NP). The presence of medical conditions (lifetime) was self-reported and confirmed by medical records, medication use or clinical data. Anthropometric measurements and socioeconomic status (SES) were determined and information on medication use and lifestyle was obtained via questionnaire. Logistic regression models were used to test the associations. Results After adjustment for age, socioeconomic status, and health risk factors (body mass index, physical activity and smoking), mood disorders were associated with gastro oesophageal reflux disease (GORD), recurrent headaches, blackouts and/or epilepsy, liver disorders and pulmonary disease in older people, whilst anxiety disorders were significantly associated with thyroid, GORD and other gastrointestinal disorders, and psoriasis. Increased odds of high medical burden were associated with both mood and anxiety disorders. Conclusions Our study provides further population-based evidence supporting the link between mental and physical illness in men. Understanding these associations is not only necessary for individual management, but also to inform the delivery of health promotion messages and health care. PMID:23618390

  9. Cost-effectiveness analysis of population-based screening of hepatocellular carcinoma: Comparing ultrasonography with two-stage screening

    PubMed Central

    Kuo, Ming-Jeng; Chen, Hsiu-Hsi; Chen, Chi-Ling; Fann, Jean Ching-Yuan; Chen, Sam Li-Sheng; Chiu, Sherry Yueh-Hsia; Lin, Yu-Min; Liao, Chao-Sheng; Chang, Hung-Chuen; Lin, Yueh-Shih; Yen, Amy Ming-Fang

    2016-01-01

    AIM: To assess the cost-effectiveness of two population-based hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screening programs, two-stage biomarker-ultrasound method and mass screening using abdominal ultrasonography (AUS). METHODS: In this study, we applied a Markov decision model with a societal perspective and a lifetime horizon for the general population-based cohorts in an area with high HCC incidence, such as Taiwan. The accuracy of biomarkers and ultrasonography was estimated from published meta-analyses. The costs of surveillance, diagnosis, and treatment were based on a combination of published literature, Medicare payments, and medical expenditure at the National Taiwan University Hospital. The main outcome measure was cost per life-year gained with a 3% annual discount rate. RESULTS: The results show that the mass screening using AUS was associated with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of USD39825 per life-year gained, whereas two-stage screening was associated with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of USD49733 per life-year gained, as compared with no screening. Screening programs with an initial screening age of 50 years old and biennial screening interval were the most cost-effective. These findings were sensitive to the costs of screening tools and the specificity of biomarker screening. CONCLUSION: Mass screening using AUS is more cost effective than two-stage biomarker-ultrasound screening. The most optimal strategy is an initial screening age at 50 years old with a 2-year inter-screening interval. PMID:27022228

  10. The past and the future of chromogenic colour photographs: lifetime modelling using near-infrared spectroscopy & enhancement using hypoxia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fenech, Ann; Strlič, Matija; Cassar, May

    2012-02-01

    Chromogenic colour prints are amongst the most unstable materials found in heritage collections as the information-carrying dyes fade appreciably even in the dark. However, image stability is just one of the numerous properties that photographic companies aspire for in their products, along with constant improvements in colour balance and image development. It is shown that these continuous changes can be exploited to model the date a print was developed, as well as dye stability. As a non-destructive analytical technique, near-infrared spectroscopy in conjunction with multivariate data analysis was used to derive models to predict the year of development of a photographic print (Root Mean Square Error of Cross-Validation, RMSECV = 5.4 years) and dye stability (RMSECV = 1.4 Δ E T , i.e. normalised annual colour change). To examine the possibility to extend the lifetime of the valuable objects during storage, the use of oxygen-depleted environments (hypoxia) was also investigated. The results obtained show that hypoxia should not be used as a blanket approach for all chromogenic prints, as some degraded faster in hypoxic conditions than the control samples degraded in air. However, for most samples hypoxic storage turned out to be beneficial.

  11. Modelling the lifetime of an observable BSR under static pressure-temperature conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haacke, R. R.; Westbrook, G. K.; Riley, M.

    2003-04-01

    Investigating the depletion of a free gas layer beneath sediments containing hydrate can shed light on the processes and conditions required to maintain an observable BSR. The free gas layer beneath a hydrate bearing sediment column is subject to depletion via advection-dispersion when the mechanisms for its replenishment are inactive. The depletion process was investigated with a one dimensional model based on the nature of the sub-BSR free gas zone observed in sediments on the Blake Ridge, by ODP leg 164, and offshore Svalbard by the Hydratech project. A uniform and static pressure-temperature (p-T) field was applied to the free gas layer, represented as a quasi-mixture of gas bubbles trapped in the rock matrix by surface tension effects. The behaviour of mass transport in solution was modelled via the Crank-Nicolson form of the advection-dispersion equation and solved by LU decomposition to quantify perturbations from equilibrium, defined by Duan's equation of states. Departures from equilibrium were restored at the expense of the free gas held in the quasi-mixture until full depletion occurred. A depletion time of about 33 ka was obtained for free gas contained in 4% pore volume of a typical 100-m thick gas layer. The accuracy of the result depends on the validity of input parameters, and differences in geological setting may allow this depletion time to lie within the range of 2-80 ka. This implies that where hydrate-bearing sediments are found without a BSR, water depth has not decreased and bottom water temperature has not increased for at least this period of time. To sustain an observable BSR, gaseous methane must occupy the region beneath the BSR with a thickness greater than one quarter of the dominant seismic wavelength. The gas must come from bubbles percolating from depth, or gas dissociated from hydrate by a change in ambient p-T conditions that moves the stability boundary upward relative to the rock matrix. Calculation shows that in the absence of

  12. Establishment of primary cultures for mouse ameloblasts as a model of their lifetime

    SciTech Connect

    Suzawa, Tetsuo . E-mail: suzawa@dent.showa-u.ac.jp; Itoh, Nao; Takahashi, Naoyuki; Katagiri, Takenobu; Morimura, Naoko; Kobayashi, Yasuna; Yamamoto, Toshinori; Kamijo, Ryutaro

    2006-07-07

    To understand how the properties of ameloblasts are spatiotemporally regulated during amelogenesis, two primary cultures of ameloblasts in different stages of differentiation were established from mouse enamel epithelium. Mouse primary ameloblasts (MPAs) prepared from immature enamel epithelium (MPA-I) could proliferate, whereas those from mature enamel epithelium (MPA-M) could not. MPA-M but not MPA-I caused apoptosis during culture. The mRNA expression of amelogenin, a marker of immature ameloblasts, was down-regulated, and that of enamel matrix serine proteiase-1, a marker of mature ameloblasts, was induced in MPA-I during culture. Using green fluorescence protein as a reporter, a visualized reporter system was established to analyze the promoter activity of the amelogenin gene. The region between -1102 bp and -261 bp was required for the reporter expression in MPA-I. These results suggest that MPAs are valuable in vitro models for investigation of ameloblast biology, and that the visualized system is useful for promoter analysis in MPAs.

  13. Associations between lifetime PTSD symptoms and current substance use disorders using a five-factor model of PTSD.

    PubMed

    Trautmann, S; Schönfeld, S; Behrendt, S; Schäfer, J; Höfler, M; Zimmermann, P; Wittchen, H-U

    2015-01-01

    This paper aimed to extend the existing knowledge on the association between PTSD symptoms, alcohol use disorders (AUD) and nicotine dependence (ND) by distinguishing between anxious and dysphoric arousal PTSD symptoms and by considering the putative contribution of additional comorbidity. Data stem from a cross-sectional study in a stratified, representative sample of 1483 recently deployed soldiers using standardized diagnostic interviews. All lifetime PTSD symptom clusters (occurrence of any symptom and number of symptoms) were associated with current AUD and ND in crude models except that anxious arousal was not related to AUD. Associations were reduced in magnitude when controlling for comorbidity. Current ND was related to the occurrence of any emotional numbing and to the number of re-experiencing symptoms above the contribution of other symptom clusters and comorbidity. In conclusion, associations between PTSD symptoms, AUD and ND may be partially attributable to additional comorbidity. Findings also yield further evidence for a role of emotional numbing and re-experiencing symptoms in the comorbidity between PTSD and ND and for a distinction between dysphoric and anxious arousal PTSD symptoms. PMID:25527901

  14. Lifetimes of lunar satellite orbits

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meyer, Kurt W.; Buglia, James J.; Desai, Prasun N.

    1994-01-01

    The Space Exploration Initiative has generated a renewed interest in lunar mission planning. The lunar missions currently under study, unlike the Apollo missions, involve long stay times. Several lunar gravity models have been formulated, but mission planners do not have enough confidence in the proposed models to conduct detailed studies of missions with long stay times. In this report, a particular lunar gravitational model, the Ferrari 5 x 5 model, was chosen to determine the lifetimes for 100-km and 300-km perilune altitude, near-circular parking orbits. The need to analyze orbital lifetimes for a large number of initial orbital parameters was the motivation for the formulation of a simplified gravitational model from the original model. Using this model, orbital lifetimes were found to be heavily dependent on the initial conditions of the nearly circular orbits, particularly the initial inclination and argument of perilune. This selected model yielded lifetime predictions of less than 40 days for some orbits, and other orbits had lifetimes exceeding a year. Although inconsistencies and limitations are inherent in all existing lunar gravity models, primarily because of a lack of information about the far side of the moon, the methods presented in this analysis are suitable for incorporating the moon's nonspherical gravitational effects on the preliminary design level for future lunar mission planning.

  15. Endometrial cancer and antidepressants: A nationwide population-based study.

    PubMed

    Lin, Chiao-Fan; Chan, Hsiang-Lin; Hsieh, Yi-Hsuan; Liang, Hsin-Yi; Chiu, Wei-Che; Huang, Kuo-You; Lee, Yena; McIntyre, Roger S; Chen, Vincent Chin-Hung

    2016-07-01

    To our knowledge, the association between antidepressant exposure and endometrial cancer has not been previously explored. Herein, we aim to investigate the association between antidepressant prescription, including novel antidepressants, and the risk for endometrial cancer in a population-based study.Data for the analysis were derived from National Health Insurance Research Database. We identified 8392 cases with a diagnosis of endometrial cancer and 82,432 matched controls. A conditional logistic regression model was used, with adjusting for potentially confounding variables (e.g., comorbid psychiatric diseases, comorbid physical diseases, and other medications). Risk for endometrial cancer in the population-based study sample was categorized by, and assessed as a function of, antidepressant prescription and cumulative dosage.We report no association between endometrial cancer incidence and antidepressant prescription, including those prescribed either selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (adjusted odds ratio [OR] = 0.98; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.84-1.15) or serotonin norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors (adjusted OR = 1.14; 95% CI, 0.76-1.71). We also did not identify an association between higher cumulative doses of antidepressant prescription and endometrial cancer.There was no association between antidepressant prescription and endometrial cancer. PMID:27442640

  16. Population-Based Study of Baseline Ethanol Consumption and Risk of Incident Essential Tremor

    PubMed Central

    Louis, Elan D.; Benito-León, Julián; Bermejo-Pareja, Félix

    2009-01-01

    Background Recent postmortem studies have demonstrated pathological changes, including Purkinje cell loss, in the cerebellum in essential tremor (ET). Toxic exposures that compromise cerebellar tissue could lower the threshold for developing ET. Ethanol is a well-established cerebellar toxin, resulting in Purkinje cell loss. Objective To test whether higher baseline ethanol consumption is a risk factor for the subsequent development of incident ET. Methods Lifetime ethanol consumption was assessed at baseline (1994-1995) in a prospective, population-based study in central Spain of 3,285 elderly participants, 76 of whom developed incident ET by follow-up (1997-1998). Results In a Cox proportional hazards model adjusting for cigarette pack-years, depressive symptoms and community, the baseline number of drink-years was marginally associated with higher risk of incident ET (relative risk, RR = 1.003, p = 0.059). In an adjusted Cox model, highest baseline drink-year quartile doubled the risk of incident ET (RR = 2.29, p = 0.018) while other quartiles were associated with more modest elevations in risk (RR3rd quartile = 1.82 [p = 0.10], RR2nd quartile = 1.75 [p = 0.10], RR1st quartile = 1.43 [p = 0.34] vs. non-drinkers [RR = 1.00]). With each higher drink-year quartile, risk of incident ET increased an average of 23% (p = 0.01, test for trend). Conclusions Higher levels of chronic ethanol consumption increased the risk of developing ET. Ethanol is often used for symptomatic relief; studies should explore whether higher consumption levels are a continued source of underlying cerebellar neurotoxicity in patients who already manifest this disease. PMID:19359288

  17. Cost-Effectiveness of Surgically Induced Weight Loss for the Management of Type 2 Diabetes: Modeled Lifetime Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Keating, Catherine L.; Dixon, John B.; Moodie, Marjory L.; Peeters, Anna; Bulfone, Liliana; Maglianno, Dianna J.; O'Brien, Paul E.

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVE To estimate the cost-effectiveness of surgically induced weight loss relative to conventional therapy for the management of recently diagnosed type 2 diabetes in class I/II obese patients. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS This study builds on a within-trial cost-efficacy analysis. The analysis compares the lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) between the two intervention groups. Intervention costs were extrapolated based on observed resource utilization during the trial. The proportion of patients in each intervention group with remission of diabetes at 2 years was the same as that observed in the trial. Health care costs for patients with type 2 diabetes and outcome variables required to derive estimates of QALYs were sourced from published literature. A health care system perspective was adopted. Costs and outcomes were discounted annually at 3%. Costs are presented in 2006 Australian dollars (AUD) (currency exchange: 1 AUD = 0.74 USD). RESULTS The mean number of years in diabetes remission over a lifetime was 11.4 for surgical therapy patients and 2.1 for conventional therapy patients. Over the remainder of their lifetime, surgical and conventional therapy patients lived 15.7 and 14.5 discounted QALYs, respectively. The mean discounted lifetime costs were 98,900 AUD per surgical therapy patient and 101,400 AUD per conventional therapy patient. Relative to conventional therapy, surgically induced weight loss was associated with a mean health care saving of 2,400 AUD and 1.2 additional QALYs per patient. CONCLUSIONS Surgically induced weight loss is a dominant intervention (it both saves health care costs and generates health benefits) for managing recently diagnosed type 2 diabetes in class I/II obese patients in Australia. PMID:19171720

  18. Quantification of the Metabolic State in Cell-Model of Parkinson’s Disease by Fluorescence Lifetime Imaging Microscopy

    PubMed Central

    Chakraborty, Sandeep; Nian, Fang-Shin; Tsai, Jin-Wu; Karmenyan, Artashes; Chiou, Arthur

    2016-01-01

    Intracellular endogenous fluorescent co-enzymes, reduced nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NADH) and flavin adenine dinucleotide (FAD), play a pivotal role in cellular metabolism; quantitative assessment of their presence in living cells can be exploited to monitor cellular energetics in Parkinson’s disease (PD), a neurodegenerative disorder. Here, we applied two-photon fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy (2P-FLIM) to noninvasively measure the fluorescence lifetime components of NADH and FAD, and their relative contributions in MPP+ (1-methyl-4-phenylpyridinium) treated neuronal cells, derived from PC12 cells treated with nerve growth factor (NGF), to mimic PD conditions. A systematic FLIM data analysis showed a statistically significant (p < 0.001) decrease in the fluorescence lifetime of both free and protein-bound NADH, as well as free and protein-bound FAD in MPP+ treated cells. On the relative contributions of the free and protein-bound NADH and FAD to the life time, however, both the free NADH contribution and the corresponding protein-bound FAD contribution increase significantly (p < 0.001) in MPP+ treated cells, compared to control cells. These results, which indicate a shift in energy production in the MPP+ treated cells from oxidative phosphorylation towards anaerobic glycolysis, can potentially be used as cellular metabolic metrics to assess the condition of PD at the cellular level. PMID:26758390

  19. Cost-effectiveness of primary care referral to a commercial provider for weight loss treatment, relative to standard care–a modelled lifetime analysis

    PubMed Central

    Fuller, Nicholas R; Carter, Hannah; Schofield, Deborah; Hauner, Hans; Jebb, Susan A; Colagiuri, Stephen; Caterson, Ian D

    2015-01-01

    Background Due to the high prevalence of overweight and obesity there is a need to identify cost-effective approaches for weight loss in primary care and community settings. Objective To evaluate the long-term cost-effectiveness of a commercial weight loss programme (Weight Watchers) (CP) compared with standard care (SC), as defined by national guidelines. Methods A Markov model was developed to calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), expressed as the cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) over the lifetime. The probabilities and quality-of-life utilities of outcomes were extrapolated from trial data using estimates from the published literature. A health sector perspective was adopted. Results Over a patient’s lifetime, the CP resulted in an incremental cost saving of AUD 70 per patient, and an incremental 0.03 QALYs gained per patient. As such, the CP was found to be the dominant treatment, being more effective and less costly than SC (95% confidence interval: dominant to 6 225 per QALY). Despite the CP delaying the onset of diabetes by approximately 10 months, there was no significant difference in the incidence of type 2 diabetes, with the CP achieving less than 0.1% fewer cases than SC over the lifetime. Conclusion The modelled results suggest that referral to community based interventions may provide a highly cost-effective approach for those at high risk of weight-related co-morbidities. PMID:24301133

  20. Expected lifetime numbers and costs of fractures in postmenopausal women with and without osteoporosis in Germany: a discrete event simulation model

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Osteoporotic fractures cause a large health burden and substantial costs. This study estimated the expected fracture numbers and costs for the remaining lifetime of postmenopausal women in Germany. Methods A discrete event simulation (DES) model which tracks changes in fracture risk due to osteoporosis, a previous fracture or institutionalization in a nursing home was developed. Expected lifetime fracture numbers and costs per capita were estimated for postmenopausal women (aged 50 and older) at average osteoporosis risk (AOR) and for those never suffering from osteoporosis. Direct and indirect costs were modeled. Deterministic univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. Results The expected fracture numbers over the remaining lifetime of a 50 year old woman with AOR for each fracture type (% attributable to osteoporosis) were: hip 0.282 (57.9%), wrist 0.229 (18.2%), clinical vertebral 0.206 (39.2%), humerus 0.147 (43.5%), pelvis 0.105 (47.5%), and other femur 0.033 (52.1%). Expected discounted fracture lifetime costs (excess cost attributable to osteoporosis) per 50 year old woman with AOR amounted to €4,479 (€1,995). Most costs were accrued in the hospital €1,743 (€751) and long-term care sectors €1,210 (€620). Univariate sensitivity analysis resulted in percentage changes between -48.4% (if fracture rates decreased by 2% per year) and +83.5% (if fracture rates increased by 2% per year) compared to base case excess costs. Costs for women with osteoporosis were about 3.3 times of those never getting osteoporosis (€7,463 vs. €2,247), and were markedly increased for women with a previous fracture. Conclusion The results of this study indicate that osteoporosis causes a substantial share of fracture costs in postmenopausal women, which strongly increase with age and previous fractures. PMID:24981316

  1. Predictors of ovarian cancer survival: a population-based prospective study in Sweden.

    PubMed

    Yang, Ling; Klint, Asa; Lambe, Mats; Bellocco, Rino; Riman, Tomas; Bergfeldt, Kjell; Persson, Ingemar; Weiderpass, Elisabete

    2008-08-01

    Ovarian cancer is the leading cause of death from gynecologic malignancies among women worldwide. Little is known about reproductive factors or lifestyle determinants and ovarian cancer prognosis. The objective of this study was to examine whether ovarian cancer survival is influenced by reproductive history, anthropometric characteristics, prediagnostic life-style factors and family history of breast or ovarian cancer. The study population consisted of 635 epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) cases derived from a nationwide population-based case-control study conducted in Sweden between 1993 and 1995. Exposure data on prediagnostic factors of interest were collected through questionnaires at the beginning of the parent study. Clinical data were abstracted from medical records. Cases were followed-up by means of record linkage to nationwide registers until December 31, 2002. Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to estimate the prognostic effect of each factor in terms of hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), following adjustment for age at diagnosis, FIGO tumor stage and WHO grade of tumor differentiation. Tumor characteristics significantly influenced the risk of death from EOC. After adjustment for these, no clear associations were detected between reproductive history (parity, age at first or last birth, oral contraceptive use, age at menarche or menopause), anthropometric characteristics (body size and shape in different periods of life), lifestyle factors before diagnosis (alcohol consumption, smoking and physical activity over lifetime), nor family history of breast cancer or ovarian cancer and EOC survival. Our findings indicate that these prediagnostic factors do not influence the EOC survival. Nevertheless, among women with early stage disease (FIGO stage I and II), there was some indication that overweight in young adulthood or recent years increased the risk of death, while physical activity in young adult life appeared to reduce

  2. Population-based absolute risk estimation with survey data.

    PubMed

    Kovalchik, Stephanie A; Pfeiffer, Ruth M

    2014-04-01

    Absolute risk is the probability that a cause-specific event occurs in a given time interval in the presence of competing events. We present methods to estimate population-based absolute risk from a complex survey cohort that can accommodate multiple exposure-specific competing risks. The hazard function for each event type consists of an individualized relative risk multiplied by a baseline hazard function, which is modeled nonparametrically or parametrically with a piecewise exponential model. An influence method is used to derive a Taylor-linearized variance estimate for the absolute risk estimates. We introduce novel measures of the cause-specific influences that can guide modeling choices for the competing event components of the model. To illustrate our methodology, we build and validate cause-specific absolute risk models for cardiovascular and cancer deaths using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Our applications demonstrate the usefulness of survey-based risk prediction models for predicting health outcomes and quantifying the potential impact of disease prevention programs at the population level. PMID:23686614

  3. Use of satellite data to constrain the model-calculated atmospheric lifetime for N2O - Implications for other trace gases

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ko, Malcolm K. W.; Sze, Nien Dak; Weisenstein, Debra K.

    1991-01-01

    Model calculations of the zonal-mean concentrations of N2O in the upper stratosphere are presented showing that about 80 percent of N2O is removed in the stratosphere between 30 deg N and 30 deg S. A comparison of calculated N2O values with remote data on N2O concentrations obtained from Nimbus 7 SAMS instrument indicated that the two-dimensional model of Ko and Sze (1982) may have underestimated the concentration of N2O in the tropical lower stratosphere. It is concluded that the calculated lifetimes for N2O and chlorofluorocarbon-source gases could be 30 percent shorter than previously reported values.

  4. Molecular Model for the Radiative Dipole Strengths and Lifetimes of the Fluorescent Levels of Mn2+and Fe3+ in II-VI And III-V Compounds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parrot, R.; Boulanger, D.

    2005-06-01

    A molecular model is used to give an overall semi-phenomenological interpretation of the radiative transition probabilities (RTP) or radiative lifetimes (RL) of Mn2+ and Fe3+ in II-VI and III-V compounds. It is shown that the RTP's are primarily controlled by: (i) the mixing of the wavefunctions of the cation and of the ligands (ii) the molecular spin-orbit interaction which involves the spin-orbit coupling constants ζd of the d electrons of the cation and ζp of the p electrons of the ligands and (iii) the energies of the intermediate levels which appear in the perturbation model.

  5. Experimental insight into b-hadron lifetimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fernández, J. P.; Flores-Castillo, L. R.

    2016-01-01

    A review on the experimental status of the measurement of b-hadron lifetimes is presented. After a brief introduction to the Standard Model, the work done by theorists about b-hadron lifetimes is put in context. The core of the review is devoted to explain the ingredients that are necessary to make a lifetime measurement, from the detector infrastructure and requirements to the statistical treatment of the data. Finally, an overview of current experimental results and future prospects is presented.

  6. Creep Constitutive Model and Component Lifetime Estimation: The Case of Niobium-Modified 9Cr-1Mo Steel Weldments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lewis, Gladius; Shaw, Kevin M.

    2011-10-01

    The θ-projection parametric method was used to analyze the creep strain versus time data, obtained in uniaxial tension, from weldments fabricated using a niobium-modified 9Cr-1Mo steel as the weld metal (Ellis, Private communication, 1991, provided the data). We used these data to illustrate a methodology whereby the θ-projection method may be used to obtain estimates of component design creep lifetimes, for specified sets of design stress, temperature, and strains. Furthermore, it is suggested that the creep strain results may be consistent with dislocation climb being the creep deformation mechanism in the alloy.

  7. Population-based register of stroke: manual of operations.

    PubMed

    Giampaoli, Simona; Hammar, Niklas; Adany, Roza; De Peretti, Christine

    2007-12-01

    Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death and hospitalization in both sexes in nearly all countries of Europe. The main forms of cardiovascular disease are ischaemic heart disease and stroke. Stroke by itself is the second leading cause of death in the European Union, and the annual number of cases of stroke is expected to increase within the next few decades, mainly owing to a growth in the proportion of older people. Stroke is an expensive disease because of the large number of premature deaths, ongoing disability in survivors, and the impact on families or caregivers and on health services (treatment and rehabilitation). Therefore, there is a pressing need to make stroke prevention and treatment a priority, to reduce the growing health burden and lessen its socioeconomic impact. The magnitude of the problem contrasts with the shortage, weak quality, and comparability of data available in most European countries. A stepwise surveillance procedure based on standardized data collection, appropriate record linkage, and validation methods was set up by the EUROCISS project (EUROpean Cardiovascular Indicators Surveillance Set), to build up comparable and reliable indicators for the surveillance of stroke at the population level.This manual of operations is intended for health professionals and policy makers. It provides a standardized and simple model for the implementation of a population-based register, which can provide estimates of attack rate and case fatality. The manual recommends starting from a minimum data set. Before implementing a population-based register, it is important to identify the target population under surveillance, which should preferably cover a well defined geographical and administrative area or region representative of the whole country, where population data and vital statistics (mortality and hospital discharge records at least) are routinely collected and easily available each year. All cases among residents should be recorded

  8. Lifetime measurements in 180Pt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Q. M.; Wu, X. G.; Chen, Y. S.; Li, C. B.; Gao, Z. C.; Li, G. S.; Chen, F. Q.; He, C. Y.; Zheng, Y.; Hu, S. P.; Zhong, J.; Wu, Y. H.; Li, H. W.; Luo, P. W.

    2016-04-01

    Lifetimes of the yrast states in 180Pt have been measured from 4+ to 8+ using the recoil distance Doppler-shift technique in the coincidence mode. These states were populated by the reaction 156Gd(28Si,4 n )180Pt at a beam energy of 144 MeV. The differential decay curve method was applied to determine the lifetimes from experimental coincidence data. The B (E 2 ) values extracted from lifetimes increase with increasing spin, implying rotor behavior, but do not show the typical shape coexistence where the B (E 2 ) values present a rapid increase at very low spins. Calculations based on the triaxial projected shell model were performed for the yrast states in 180Pt and the results of both energies and E 2 transition probabilities reproduce the experimental data very well. The result also shows that a better description of the yrast band in 180Pt requires consideration of the γ degree of freedom.

  9. Lifetime of heavy flavour particles

    SciTech Connect

    Lueth, V.

    1985-10-01

    Recent measurements of the lifetime of the tau leptons and charm and beauty hadrons are reviewed and their significance for the couplings of the charged weak current, flavour mixing, and models relating quarks to hadron decay are discussed. 70 refs., 17 figs., 5 tabs.

  10. The Lifetimes of Astronomers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abt, Helmut A.

    2015-08-01

    For members of the American Astronomical Society, I collected data on their lifetimes from (1) 489 obituaries published in 1991-2015, (2) about 127 members listed as deceased but without published obituaries, and (3) a sample of AAS members without obituaries or not known to the AAS as being deceased. These show that the most frequent lifetimes is 85 years. Of 674 deceased members with known lifetimes, 11.0 ± 1.3% lived to be 90 or more years. In comparison to the astronomers, the most frequent lifetime for the general population is 77 years, showing that astronomers live an average of 8 years longer than the general population.

  11. Preindustrial to Present-Day Changes in Tropospheric Hydroxyl Radical and Methane Lifetime from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Naik, V.; Voulgarakis, A.; Fiore, A. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Lin, M.; Prather, M. J.; Young, P. J.; Bergmann, D.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.; Cionni, I.; Collins, W. J.; Dalsoren, S. B.; Doherty, R.; Eyring, V.; Faluvegi, G.; Folberth, G. A.; Josse, B.; Lee, Y. H.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Nagashima, T.; vanNoije, T. P. C.; Plummer, D. A.; Righi, M.; Rumbold, S. T.; Skeie, R.; Shindell, D. T.; Stevenson, D. S.; Strode, S.; Sudo, K.; Szopa, S.; Zeng, G.

    2013-01-01

    We have analysed time-slice simulations from 17 global models, participating in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), to explore changes in present-day (2000) hydroxyl radical (OH) concentration and methane (CH4) lifetime relative to preindustrial times (1850) and to 1980. A comparison of modeled and observation-derived methane and methyl chloroform lifetimes suggests that the present-day global multi-model mean OH concentration is overestimated by 5 to 10% but is within the range of uncertainties. The models consistently simulate higher OH concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) compared with the Southern Hemisphere (SH) for the present-day (2000; inter-hemispheric ratios of 1.13 to 1.42), in contrast to observation-based approaches which generally indicate higher OH in the SH although uncertainties are large. Evaluation of simulated carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations, the primary sink for OH, against ground-based and satellite observations suggests low biases in the NH that may contribute to the high north–south OH asymmetry in the models. The models vary widely in their regional distribution of present-day OH concentrations (up to 34%). Despite large regional changes, the multi-model global mean (mass-weighted) OH concentration changes little over the past 150 yr, due to concurrent increases in factors that enhance OH (humidity, tropospheric ozone, nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, and UV radiation due to decreases in stratospheric ozone), compensated by increases in OH sinks (methane abundance, carbon monoxide and non-methane volatile organic carbon (NMVOC) emissions). The large inter-model diversity in the sign and magnitude of preindustrial to present-day OH changes (ranging from a decrease of 12.7% to an increase of 14.6%) indicate that uncertainty remains in our understanding of the long-term trends in OH and methane lifetime. We show that this diversity is largely explained by the different ratio of the

  12. A reassessment of risk associated with dietary intake of ochratoxin A based on a lifetime exposure model

    PubMed Central

    Haighton, Lois A; Lynch, Barry S; Magnuson, Bernadene A; Nestmann, Earle R

    2012-01-01

    Mycotoxins, such as ochratoxin A (OTA), can occur from fungal growth on foods. OTA is considered a possible risk factor for adverse renal effects in humans based on renal tumors in male rats. For risk mitigation. Health Canada proposed maximum limits (MLs) for OTA based largely on a comparative risk assessment conducted by Health Canada (Kuiper-Goodman et al., 2010), in which analytical data of OTA in foods were used to determine the possible impact adopting MLs may have on OTA risks. The EU MLs were used for comparison and resultant risk was determined based on age–sex strata groups. These data were reevaluated here to determine comparative risk on a lifetime basis instead of age strata. Also, as there is scientific disagreement over the mechanism of OTA-induced renal tumors, mechanistic data were revisited. On a lifetime basis, risks associated with dietary exposure were found to be negligible, even without MLs, with dietary exposures to OTA three to four orders of magnitude below the pivotal animal LOAEL and the TD05. Our review of the mechanistic data supported a threshold-based mechanism as the most plausible. In particular, OTA was negative in genotoxicity assays with the highest specificity and levels of DNA adducts were very low and not typical of genotoxic carcinogens. In conclusion, OTA exposures from Canadian foods do not present a significant cancer risk. PMID:22276591

  13. The simcyp population based simulator: architecture, implementation, and quality assurance.

    PubMed

    Jamei, Masoud; Marciniak, Steve; Edwards, Duncan; Wragg, Kris; Feng, Kairui; Barnett, Adrian; Rostami-Hodjegan, Amin

    2013-01-01

    Developing a user-friendly platform that can handle a vast number of complex physiologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PBPK/PD) models both for conventional small molecules and larger biologic drugs is a substantial challenge. Over the last decade the Simcyp Population Based Simulator has gained popularity in major pharmaceutical companies (70% of top 40 - in term of R&D spending). Under the Simcyp Consortium guidance, it has evolved from a simple drug-drug interaction tool to a sophisticated and comprehensive Model Based Drug Development (MBDD) platform that covers a broad range of applications spanning from early drug discovery to late drug development. This article provides an update on the latest architectural and implementation developments within the Simulator. Interconnection between peripheral modules, the dynamic model building process and compound and population data handling are all described. The Simcyp Data Management (SDM) system, which contains the system and drug databases, can help with implementing quality standards by seamless integration and tracking of any changes. This also helps with internal approval procedures, validation and auto-testing of the new implemented models and algorithms, an area of high interest to regulatory bodies. PMID:25505654

  14. On the reduced lifetime of nitrous oxide due to climate change induced acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation as simulated by the MPI Earth System Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kracher, D.; Manzini, E.; Reick, C. H.; Schultz, M. G.; Stein, O.

    2014-12-01

    Greenhouse gas induced climate change will modify the physical conditions of the atmosphere. One of the projected changes is an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation in the stratosphere, as it has been shown in many model studies. This change in the stratospheric circulation consequently bears an effect on the transport and distribution of atmospheric components such as N2O. Since N2O is involved in ozone destruction, a modified distribution of N2O can be of importance for ozone chemistry. N2O is inert in the troposphere and decays only in the stratosphere. Thus, changes in the exchange between troposphere and stratosphere can also affect the stratospheric sink of N2O, and consequently its atmospheric lifetime. N2O is a potent greenhouse gas with a global warming potential of currently approximately 300 CO2-equivalents in a 100-year perspective. A faster decay in atmospheric N2O mixing ratios, i.e. a decreased atmospheric lifetime of N2O, will also reduce its global warming potential. In order to assess the impact of climate change on atmospheric circulation and implied effects on the distribution and lifetime of atmospheric N2O, we apply the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model, MPI-ESM. MPI-ESM consists of the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM, the land surface model JSBACH, and MPIOM/HAMOCC representing ocean circulation and ocean biogeochemistry. Prognostic atmospheric N2O concentrations in MPI-ESM are determined by land N2O emissions, ocean-atmosphere N2O exchange and atmospheric tracer transport. As stratospheric chemistry is not explicitly represented in MPI-ESM, stratospheric decay rates of N2O are prescribed from a MACC MOZART simulation. Increasing surface temperatures and CO2 concentrations in the stratosphere impact atmospheric circulation differently. Thus, we conduct a series of transient runs with the atmospheric model of MPI-ESM to isolate different factors governing a shift in atmospheric circulation. From those transient

  15. Parenting and risk for mood, anxiety and substance use disorders: a study in population-based male twins

    PubMed Central

    Gardner, Charles O.; Kendler, Kenneth S.; Hettema, John M.

    2013-01-01

    Background Previous studies consistently identified a relationship between parenting behavior and psychopathology. In this study, we extended prior analyses performed in female twins to a large sample of twins from male–male pairs. Methods We used interview data on 2,609 adult male twins from a population-based twin registry. We examined the association between three retrospectively reported parenting dimensions (coldness, protectiveness, and authoritarianism) and lifetime history of seven common psychiatric and substance use disorders. Using univariate structural equation modeling, we also examined the influence of the genetic and environmental factors on parenting. Results Examined individually, coldness was consistently associated with risk for a broad range of adult psychopathology. Averaged odds of psychiatric disorders associated with parenting were increased between 26 and 36 %. When the three parenting dimensions were examined together, coldness remained significant for major depression, phobia, and generalized anxiety disorder. Controlling for other disorders, the associations between the parenting dimensions and psychopathology were non-specific. Twin fitting model demonstrated that modest heritability accounted for parenting, whereas most variance resulted from the non-shared environment. Conclusions Based on our current and prior findings, there is broad similarity in the impact of parenting on adult psychopathology between men and women. PMID:23344783

  16. Part I. A look at population-based medical care.

    PubMed

    Weiss, K

    1998-08-01

    Recent trends toward managed health care have generated interest in developing strategies to manage the health care of a population as a whole. Population-based medicine places the individual patient within the context of the larger community, which is composed of both sick and well individuals; when viewed in these terms, only a small proportion of the people who consult a primary care physician are at risk for substantial morbidity. However, the physician serves as the central figure for delivering population-based health care to the entire community. Many strategies for population-based care contain the following 4 basic elements: 1. Identifying the health and disease states that are likely to be responsive to population-based care, 2. Applying principles of epidemiology to define the population-of-interest, 3. Assembling a multidisciplinary team, and 4. Building information systems to support ongoing surveillance of population-based care. To date, most of the published examples of population-based management have been conducted in managed care environments, but population-based management may also be used by a single physician practice or a small group practice. Programs aimed at health promotion or disease prevention are among the easiest to implement. By examining the results of an entire population with a given condition, physicians and their teams may begin to identify ways to improve the overall delivery of care, either by establishing new procedures or improving old ones. PMID:9735940

  17. One in four people may develop symptomatic hip osteoarthritis in his or her lifetime

    PubMed Central

    Murphy, Louise B; Helmick, Charles G.; Schwartz, Todd A; Renner, Jordan B; Tudor, Gail; Koch, Gary G; Dragomir, Anca D; Kalsbeek, William D; Luta, Gheorghe; Jordan, Joanne M

    2010-01-01

    Summary Objective To estimate the lifetime risk of symptomatic hip osteoarthritis (OA). Design We analyzed data from the Johnston County Osteoarthritis Project (a longitudinal population-based study of OA in North Carolina, United States [n=3,068]). The weighted baseline sample comprised 18% blacks and 54% women, and the mean age was 63 years (range=45-93). Symptomatic hip OA was defined as a Kellgren-Lawrence (K-L) radiographic score of ≥2 (anterior-posterior pelvis x-rays) and pain, aching or stiffness on most days, or groin pain, in the same hip. Lifetime risk, defined as the proportion who developed symptomatic hip OA in at least one hip by age 85, among people who live to age 85, was modeled using logistic regression with repeated measures (through generalized estimating equations). Results Lifetime risk of symptomatic hip OA was 25.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 21.3–29.3). Lifetime risk was similar by sex, race, highest educational attainment, and hip injury history. We studied lifetime risk by body mass index (BMI) in three forms: at age 18; at baseline and follow-up; and at age 18, baseline and follow-up and found no differences in estimates. Conclusion The burden of symptomatic hip OA is substantial with one in four people developing this condition by age 85. The similar race-specific estimates suggest that racial disparities in total hip replacements are not attributable to differences in disease occurrence. Despite increasing evidence that obesity predicts an increased risk of both hip OA and joint replacement, we found no association between BMI and lifetime risk. PMID:20713163

  18. Polymer damage mitigation---predictive lifetime models of polymer insulation degradation and biorenewable thermosets through cationic polymerization for self-healing applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hondred, Peter Raymond

    Over the past 50 years, the industrial development and applications for polymers and polymer composites has become expansive. However, as with any young technology, the techniques for predicting material damage and resolving material failure are in need of continued development and refinement. This thesis work takes two approaches to polymer damage mitigation---material lifetime prediction and spontaneous damage repair through self-healing while incorporating bio-renewable feedstock. First, material lifetime prediction offers the benefit of identifying and isolating material failures before the effects of damage results in catastrophic failure. Second, self-healing provides a systematic approach to repairing damaged polymer composites, specifically in applications where a hands-on approach or removing the part from service are not feasible. With regard to lifetime prediction, we investigated three specific polymeric materials---polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE), poly(ethylene-alt-tetrafluoroethylene) (ETFE), and Kapton. All three have been utilized extensively in the aerospace field as a wire insulation coating. Because of the vast amount of electrical wiring used in aerospace constructions and the potential for electrical and thermal failure, this work develops mathematical models for both the thermal degradation kinetics as well as a lifetime prediction model for electrothermal breakdown. Isoconversional kinetic methods, which plot activation energy as a function of the extent of degradation, present insight into the development each kinetic model. The models for PTFE, ETFE, and Kapton are one step, consecutive three-step, and competitive and consecutive five-step respectively. Statistical analysis shows that an nth order autocatalytic reaction best defined the reaction kinetics for each polymer's degradation. Self-healing polymers arrest crack propagation through the use of an imbedded adhesive that reacts when cracks form. This form of damage mitigation focuses on

  19. The extended Touschek lifetime

    SciTech Connect

    Bizek, H.M.

    1997-06-01

    Scattering of particles within the bunch is called Touschek scattering. If large enough, such an energy transfer may eject the particle out of the bunch. If a particle is scattered in the dispersive region, it will induce a horizontal betatron oscillation which will be coupled into vertical motion when it passes through skew components. The amount of coupling is expressed in terms of the coupling coefficient, {chi}. If the coupling coefficient is large enough, the resulting vertical oscillations may exceed the normally small vertical admittance of the ring. Thus the particles may be lost even though the energy loss is within the momentum acceptance. The lifetime associated with this loss mechanism is called the extended Touschek lifetime. In the usual touschek lifetime calculation, the lifetime increases as the coupling increases. Including the effect of the vertical oscillation results in a decrease of Touschek lifetime beyond some coupling value.

  20. Exploring Lifetime Effects in Femtoscopy

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, D; Soltz, R; Newby, J; Kisiel, A

    2005-09-06

    We investigate the role of lifetime effects from resonances and emission duration tails in femtoscopy at RHIC in two Blast-Wave models. We find the non-Gaussian components compare well with published source imaged data, but the value of R{sub out} obtained from Gaussian fits is not insensitive to the non-Gaussian contributions when realistic acceptance cuts are applied to models.

  1. Tropospheric OH and the lifetimes of hydrochlorofluorocarbons

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prather, Michael; Spivakovsky, Clarisa M.

    1990-01-01

    Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) may be used as alternatives for the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). Lifetimes for the HCFCs are predicted here in two ways: integrating their loss with a global model and scaling to another compound with a better known lifetime. Both approaches are shown to yield similar results. Three-dimensional fields of modeled tropospheric OH concentrations are used to calculate lifetimes against destruction by OH for the HCFCs and other hydrogenated halocarbons. The lifetimes of various hydro-halocarbons are shown to be insensitive to possible spatial variations and seasonal cycles. It is possible to scale the HCFC lifetimes to that of methyl chloroform or methane by using a ratio of the rate coefficients for reaction with OH at an appropriate temperature, about 277 K.

  2. PopTract: Population-Based Tractography

    PubMed Central

    Yap, Pew-Thian; Gilmore, John H.; Lin, Weili

    2016-01-01

    White matter fiber tractography plays a key role in the in vivo understanding of brain circuitry. For tract-based comparison of a population of images, a common approach is to first generate an atlas by averaging, after spatial normalization, all images in the population, and then perform tractography using the constructed atlas. The reconstructed fiber trajectories form a common geometry onto which diffusion properties of each individual subject can be projected based on the corresponding locations in the subject native space. However, in the case of high angular resolution diffusion imaging (HARDI), where modeling fiber crossings is an important goal, the above-mentioned averaging method for generating an atlas results in significant error in the estimation of local fiber orientations and causes a major loss of fiber crossings. These limitatitons have significant impact on the accuracy of the reconstructed fiber trajectories and jeopardize subsequent tract-based analysis. As a remedy, we present in this paper a more effective means of performing tractography at a population level. Our method entails determining a bipolar Watson distribution at each voxel location based on information given by all images in the population, giving us not only the local principal orientations of the fiber pathways, but also confidence levels of how reliable these orientations are across subjects. The distribution field is then fed as an input to a probabilistic tractography framework for reconstructing a set of fiber trajectories that are consistent across all images in the population. We observe that the proposed method, called PopTract, results in significantly better preservation of fiber crossings, and hence yields better trajectory reconstruction in the atlas space. PMID:21571607

  3. Adult Prevalence of Epilepsy in Spain: EPIBERIA, a Population-Based Study

    PubMed Central

    Serrano-Castro, Pedro J.; Mauri-Llerda, Jose Angel; Hernández-Ramos, Francisco José; Sánchez-Alvarez, Juan Carlos; Parejo-Carbonell, Beatriz; Quiroga-Subirana, Pablo; Vázquez-Gutierrez, Fernando; Santos-Lasaosa, Sonia; Mendez-Lucena, Carolina; Redondo-Verge, Luis; Tejero-Juste, Carlos; Morandeira-Rivas, Clara; Sancho-Rieger, Jerónimo; Matías-Guiu, Jorge

    2015-01-01

    Background. This study assesses the lifetime and active prevalence of epilepsy in Spain in people older than 18 years. Methods. EPIBERIA is a population-based epidemiological study of epilepsy prevalence using data from three representative Spanish regions (health districts in Zaragoza, Almería, and Seville) between 2012 and 2013. The study consisted of two phases: screening and confirmation. Participants completed a previously validated questionnaire (EPIBERIA questionnaire) over the telephone. Results. A total of 1741 valid questionnaires were obtained, including 261 (14.99%) raising a suspicion of epilepsy. Of these suspected cases, 216 (82.75%) agreed to participate in phase 2. Of the phase 2 participants, 22 met the International League Against Epilepsy's diagnostic criteria for epilepsy. The estimated lifetime prevalence, adjusted by age and sex per 1,000 people, was 14.87 (95% CI: 9.8–21.9). Active prevalence was 5.79 (95% CI: 2.8–10.6). No significant age, sex, or regional differences in prevalence were detected. Conclusions. EPIBERIA provides the most accurate estimate of epilepsy prevalence in the Mediterranean region based on its original methodology and its adherence to ILAE recommendations. We highlight that the lifetime prevalence and inactive epilepsy prevalence figures observed here were compared to other epidemiological studies. PMID:26783554

  4. Stochastic Analysis of Orbital Lifetimes of Spacecraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sasamoto, Washito; Goodliff, Kandyce; Cornelius, David

    2008-01-01

    A document discusses (1) a Monte-Carlo-based methodology for probabilistic prediction and analysis of orbital lifetimes of spacecraft and (2) Orbital Lifetime Monte Carlo (OLMC)--a Fortran computer program, consisting of a previously developed long-term orbit-propagator integrated with a Monte Carlo engine. OLMC enables modeling of variances of key physical parameters that affect orbital lifetimes through the use of probability distributions. These parameters include altitude, speed, and flight-path angle at insertion into orbit; solar flux; and launch delays. The products of OLMC are predicted lifetimes (durations above specified minimum altitudes) for the number of user-specified cases. Histograms generated from such predictions can be used to determine the probabilities that spacecraft will satisfy lifetime requirements. The document discusses uncertainties that affect modeling of orbital lifetimes. Issues of repeatability, smoothness of distributions, and code run time are considered for the purpose of establishing values of code-specific parameters and number of Monte Carlo runs. Results from test cases are interpreted as demonstrating that solar-flux predictions are primary sources of variations in predicted lifetimes. Therefore, it is concluded, multiple sets of predictions should be utilized to fully characterize the lifetime range of a spacecraft.

  5. Thermo-mechanical and neutron lifetime modeling and design of Be pebbles in the neutron multiplier for the LIFE engine

    SciTech Connect

    DeMange, P; Marian, J; de Caro, M S; Caro, A

    2009-03-16

    Concept designs for the laser-initiated fusion/fission engine (LIFE) include a neutron multiplication blanket containing Be pebbles flowing in a molten salt coolant. These pebbles must be designed to withstand the extreme irradiation and temperature conditions in the blanket to enable a safe and cost-effective operation of LIFE. In this work, we develop design criteria for spherical Be pebbles on the basis of their thermomechanical behavior under continued neutron exposure. We consider the effects of high fluence/fast flux on the elastic, thermal and mechanical properties of nuclear-grade Be. Our results suggest a maximum pebble diameter of 30 mm to avoid tensile failure, coated with an anti-corrosive, high-strength metallic shell to avoid failure by pebble contact. Moreover, we find that the operation temperature must always be kept above 450 C to enable creep to relax the stresses induced by swelling, which we estimate to be at least 16 months if uncoated and up to six years when coated. We identify the sources of uncertainty on the properties used and discuss the advantages of new intermetallic beryllides and their use in LIFE's neutron multiplier. To establish Be-pebble lifetimes with improved confidence, reliable experiments to measure irradiation creep must be performed.

  6. Glycemic Change After Pancreaticoduodenectomy: A Population-Based Study.

    PubMed

    Wu, Jin-Ming; Ho, Te-Wei; Kuo, Ting-Chun; Yang, Ching-Yao; Lai, Hong-Shiee; Chiang, Pin-Yi; Hsieh, Su-Hua; Lai, Feipei; Tien, Yu-Wen

    2015-07-01

    The purpose of this population-based study was to determine the change of glucose metabolism in patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD).We conducted a nationwide cohort study using data from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database collected between 2000 and 2010. Our sample included 861 subjects with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) and 3914 subjects without DM.Of 861 subjects with type 2 diabetes, 174 patients (20.2%) experienced resolution of their diabetes after PD, including patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) (20.5%), and non-PDAC (20.1%). Using a multiple logistic regression model, we found that subjects with comorbid chronic pancreatitis (odds ratio, 0.356; 95% CI, 0.167-0.759; P = 0.007) and use of insulin (odds ratio, 0.265; 95% CI, 0.171-0.412; P < 0.001) had significantly lower rates of resolution of diabetes. In the 3914 subjects without diabetes, the only statistically significant comorbidity contributing to pancreatogenic diabetes was chronic pancreatitis (odds ratio, 1.446; 95% CI, 1.146-1.823; P = 0.002).Subjects with comorbid chronic pancreatitis and use of insulin had lower rates of resolution of DM after PD. In subjects without diabetes, chronic pancreatitis contributed significantly to the development of pancreatogenic DM. PMID:26166104

  7. SO2 Emissions and Lifetimes: Estimates from Inverse Modeling Using In Situ and Global, Space-Based (SCIAMACHY and OMI) Observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, Chulkyu; Martin Randall V.; vanDonkelaar, Aaron; Lee, Hanlim; Dickerson, RUssell R.; Hains, Jennifer C.; Krotkov, Nickolay; Richter, Andreas; Vinnikov, Konstantine; Schwab, James J.

    2011-01-01

    Top-down constraints on global sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions are inferred through inverse modeling using SO2 column observations from two satellite instruments (SCIAMACHY and OMI). We first evaluated the S02 column observations with surface SO2 measurements by applying local scaling factors from a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to SO2 columns retrieved from the satellite instruments. The resulting annual mean surface SO2 mixing ratios for 2006 exhibit a significant spatial correlation (r=0.86, slope=0.91 for SCIAMACHY and r=0.80, slope = 0.79 for OMI) with coincident in situ measurements from monitoring networks throughout the United States and Canada. We evaluate the GEOS-Chem simulation of the SO2 lifetime with that inferred from in situ measurements to verity the applicability of GEOS-Chem for inversion of SO2 columns to emissions. The seasonal mean SO2 lifetime calculated with the GEOS-Chem model over the eastern United States is 13 h in summer and 48 h in winter, compared to lifetimes inferred from in situ measurements of 19 +/- 7 h in summer and 58 +/- 20 h in winter. We apply SO2 columns from SCIAMACHY and OMI to derive a top-down anthropogenic SO2 emission inventory over land by using the local GEOS-Chem relationship between SO2 columns and emissions. There is little seasonal variation in the top-down emissions (<15%) over most major industrial regions providing some confidence in the method. Our global estimate for annual land surface anthropogenic SO2 emissions (52.4 Tg S/yr from SCIAMACHY and 49.9 Tg S / yr from OMI) closely agrees with the bottom-up emissions (54.6 Tg S/yr) in the GEOS-Chem model and exhibits consistency in global distributions with the bottom-up emissions (r = 0.78 for SCIAMACHY, and r = 0.77 for OMI). However, there are significant regional differences.

  8. Satellite lifetime routine user's manual

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Everett, H. U.; Myler, T. R.

    1975-01-01

    A FORTRAN coded computer program which determines secular variations in mean orbital elements of earth satellites and the lifetime of the orbit is described. The dynamical model treats a point mass satellite subject to solar and lunar disturbing gravitational fields, second, third and fourth harmonics of the earth's oblate potential, earth's atmospheric drag, and solar radiation pressure. Each of these disturbing functions may be selectively simulated. Data preparation instructions, a sample problem, and definitions of output quantities are included.

  9. The extended Touschek lifetime

    SciTech Connect

    Bizek, H.M.

    1996-02-01

    With the advent of synchrotron radiation sources, the issue of beam lifetime becomes increasingly important. Users of these machines need to perform experiments which seldom last 15 minutes, but require hours for their completion. Therefore, the beam should circulate stably for hours. The beam of the Advanced Photon Source (APS) storage ring at Argonne National Laboratory is assumed to circulate stably for a minimum of 10 hours. The main contributions to the total beam lifetime (which is the inverse of the loss rate) come from residual gas scattering and Touschek scattering. The residual gas scattering is comprised of single Coulomb scattering and bremsstrahlung. The single-Coulomb scattering involves elastic collisions, while bremsstrahlung involves inelastic collisions, between the bunch and the surrounding residual gas. In the calculation the authors take the gas to be nitrogen at a pressure of 1 nTorr. Touschek scattering involves scattering of particles within the bunch, transferring energy among themselves. Such an energy transfer, if large enough, may eject the particle out of the bunch, thus causing it to be lost. Let us not forget the residual-gas lifetime. As pointed out, the calculation of this lifetime is done for the very low pressure of 1 nTorr. If the pressure is higher, the residual-gas lifetime will be smaller. This will further reduce the total beam lifetime, causing it to slip deeper below the minimum lifetime for stable storage ring operation. They begin this article by reviewing the Touschek integral and the associated limits of integration. The program ZAP has been altered to take into account the possible loss due to induced betatron oscillations. At each lattice position the energy loss required to produce, by coupling, a vertical oscillation that exceeds the vertical aperture is calculated. When this energy loss is less than the rf bucket half-height, it replaces the rf bucket half-height in the Touschek integral.

  10. Guiding principles and checklist for population-based quality metrics.

    PubMed

    Krishnan, Mahesh; Brunelli, Steven M; Maddux, Franklin W; Parker, Thomas F; Johnson, Douglas; Nissenson, Allen R; Collins, Allan; Lacson, Eduardo

    2014-06-01

    The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services oversees the ESRD Quality Incentive Program to ensure that the highest quality of health care is provided by outpatient dialysis facilities that treat patients with ESRD. To that end, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services uses clinical performance measures to evaluate quality of care under a pay-for-performance or value-based purchasing model. Now more than ever, the ESRD therapeutic area serves as the vanguard of health care delivery. By translating medical evidence into clinical performance measures, the ESRD Prospective Payment System became the first disease-specific sector using the pay-for-performance model. A major challenge for the creation and implementation of clinical performance measures is the adjustments that are necessary to transition from taking care of individual patients to managing the care of patient populations. The National Quality Forum and others have developed effective and appropriate population-based clinical performance measures quality metrics that can be aggregated at the physician, hospital, dialysis facility, nursing home, or surgery center level. Clinical performance measures considered for endorsement by the National Quality Forum are evaluated using five key criteria: evidence, performance gap, and priority (impact); reliability; validity; feasibility; and usability and use. We have developed a checklist of special considerations for clinical performance measure development according to these National Quality Forum criteria. Although the checklist is focused on ESRD, it could also have broad application to chronic disease states, where health care delivery organizations seek to enhance quality, safety, and efficiency of their services. Clinical performance measures are likely to become the norm for tracking performance for health care insurers. Thus, it is critical that the methodologies used to develop such metrics serve the payer and the provider and most importantly, reflect

  11. Population-based, Case-Control-Family Design to Investigate Genetic and Environmental Influences on Melanoma Risk

    PubMed Central

    Cust, Anne E.; Schmid, Helen; Maskiell, Judith A.; Jetann, Jodie; Ferguson, Megan; Holland, Elizabeth A.; Agha-Hamilton, Chantelle; Jenkins, Mark A.; Kelly, John; Kefford, Richard F.; Giles, Graham G.; Armstrong, Bruce K.; Aitken, Joanne F.; Hopper, John L.; Mann, Graham J.

    2009-01-01

    Discovering and understanding genetic risk factors for melanoma and their interactions with phenotype, sun exposure, and other risk factors could lead to new strategies for melanoma control. This paper describes the Australian Melanoma Family Study, which uses a multicenter, population-based, case-control-family design. From 2001 to 2005, the authors recruited 1,164 probands including 629 cases with histopathologically confirmed, first-primary cutaneous melanoma diagnosed before age 40 years, 240 population-based controls frequency matched for age, and 295 spouse/friend controls. Information on lifetime sun exposure, phenotype, and residence history was collected for probands and nearly 4,000 living relatives. More than 3,000 subjects donated a blood sample. Proxy-reported information was collected for childhood sun exposure and deceased relatives. Important features of this study include the population-based, family-based design; a focus on early onset disease; probands from 3 major cities differing substantially in solar ultraviolet exposure and melanoma incidence; a population at high risk because of high ultraviolet exposure and susceptible pigmentation phenotypes; population-based, spouse/friend, and sibling controls; systematic recruitment of relatives of case and control probands; self and parent reports of childhood sun exposure; and objective clinical skin examinations. The authors discuss methodological and analytical issues related to the study design and conduct, as well as the potentially novel insights the study can deliver. PMID:19887461

  12. Cycle ageing analysis of a LiFePO4/graphite cell with dynamic model validations: Towards realistic lifetime predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sarasketa-Zabala, E.; Gandiaga, I.; Martinez-Laserna, E.; Rodriguez-Martinez, L. M.; Villarreal, I.

    2015-02-01

    The present investigation work compares cycling ageing behaviour upon constant operation conditions (static tests) with degradation under non-constant schemes (dynamic tests), through a novel methodology for ageing model dynamic validation. A LFP-based Li-ion cell performance loss is analysed using a DOD and C-rate stress factors Ah-throughput-domain characterisation method, and represented using a semi-empirical model. The proposed stepwise validation approach enables assessing the static ageing tests acceleration factor and systematically improving the ageing model. The result is a simple but comprehensive model. The predictions root-mean-square error, under dynamic cycling operation conditions, is just 1.75%.

  13. Computational toxicology: Physiologically based pharmacokinetic models (PBPK) for lifetime exposure and bioaccumulation of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in marine mammals.

    PubMed

    Weijs, Liesbeth; Covaci, Adrian; Yang, Raymond S H; Das, Krishna; Blust, Ronny

    2012-04-01

    Due to migration of harbour porpoises towards more polluted areas like the North Sea and their sensitivity towards pollution, there is a need for proper conservation measures for this species. As a consequence, knowledge about the pollutant's kinetics is required. The present study is the first to investigate the kinetics of PBDEs in marine mammals using PBPK modeling as a non-destructive tool for describing the chemical's kinetics in a protected animal species. The models were developed and parameterized using data from the literature and Black Sea harbour porpoises through computer optimization. The predictability of these models in time was assessed by reverse dosimetry modeling using data from North Sea porpoises (1990-2008). From these predictions, PBDE 99 levels were found to decrease the fastest, followed by PBDE 153, 47 and 100. Results show that the PBPK models can be applied for harbour porpoises from different regions and also simulate time trends. PMID:22325441

  14. Young adults' trajectories of Ecstasy use: a population based study.

    PubMed

    Smirnov, Andrew; Najman, Jake M; Hayatbakhsh, Reza; Plotnikova, Maria; Wells, Helene; Legosz, Margot; Kemp, Robert

    2013-11-01

    Young adults' Ecstasy use trajectories have important implications for individual and population-level consequences of Ecstasy use, but little relevant research has been conducted. This study prospectively examines Ecstasy trajectories in a population-based sample. Data are from the Natural History Study of Drug Use, a retrospective/prospective cohort study conducted in Australia. Population screening identified a probability sample of Ecstasy users aged 19-23 years. Complete data for 30 months of follow-up, comprising 4 time intervals, were available for 297 participants (88.4% of sample). Trajectories were derived using cluster analysis based on recent Ecstasy use at each interval. Trajectory predictors were examined using a generalized ordered logit model and included Ecstasy dependence (World Mental Health Composite International Diagnostic Instrument), psychological distress (Hospital Anxiety Depression Scale), aggression (Young Adult Self Report) and contextual factors (e.g. attendance at electronic/dance music events). Three Ecstasy trajectories were identified (low, intermediate and high use). At its peak, the high-use trajectory involved 1-2 days Ecstasy use per week. Decreasing frequency of use was observed for intermediate and high-use trajectories from 12 months, independently of market factors. Intermediate and high-use trajectory membership was predicted by past Ecstasy consumption (>70 pills) and attendance at electronic/dance music events. High-use trajectory members were unlikely to have used Ecstasy for more than 3 years and tended to report consistently positive subjective effects at baseline. Given the social context and temporal course of Ecstasy use, Ecstasy trajectories might be better understood in terms of instrumental rather than addictive drug use patterns. PMID:23899430

  15. Potential for Adult-Based Epidemiological Studies to Characterize Overall Cancer Risks Associated with a Lifetime of CT Scans

    PubMed Central

    Shuryak, Igor; Lubin, Jay H.; Brenner, David J.

    2014-01-01

    Recent epidemiological studies have suggested that radiation exposure from pediatric CT scanning is associated with small excess cancer risks. However, the majority of CT scans are performed on adults, and most radiation-induced cancers appear during middle or old age, in the same age range as background cancers. Consequently, a logical next step is to investigate the effects of CT scanning in adulthood on lifetime cancer risks by conducting adult-based, appropriately designed epidemiological studies. Here we estimate the sample size required for such studies to detect CT-associated risks. This was achieved by incorporating different age-, sex-, time- and cancer type-dependent models of radiation carcinogenesis into an in silico simulation of a population-based cohort study. This approach simulated individual histories of chest and abdominal CT exposures, deaths and cancer diagnoses. The resultant sample sizes suggest that epidemiological studies of realistically sized cohorts can detect excess lifetime cancer risks from adult CT exposures. For example, retrospective analysis of CT exposure and cancer incidence data from a population-based cohort of 0.4 to 1.3 million (depending on the carcinogenic model) CT-exposed UK adults, aged 25–65 in 1980 and followed until 2015, provides 80% power for detecting cancer risks from chest and abdominal CT scans. PMID:24828111

  16. A model for a comprehensive assessment of exposure and lifetime cancer incidence risk from plutonium released from the Rocky Flats Plant, 1953-1989.

    PubMed

    Rood, Arthur S; Grogan, Helen A; Till, John E

    2002-02-01

    A model was developed to calculate ambient air concentrations, surface deposition, and lifetime carcinogenic risk with uncertainty from plutonium released to the air from the Rocky Flats Plant between the years 1953 and 1989. The model integrated airborne release estimates and atmospheric dispersion and deposition calculations from 37 years of routine plant operations and episodic releases. Episodic releases included two major fires in 1957 and 1969 that breached the building air filtration systems, and suspension of plutonium contaminated soil from the former 903 waste storage area during high winds. Predicted air concentrations included contributions from site releases and resuspension from contaminated soil. Inhalation was the only exposure pathway considered. Environmental measurements suitable for model validation were lacking for the period when major site releases occurred (1953 to 1970). However, environmental media, such as soil and lake sediment, are natural accumulators and provided evidence of past offsite releases. The geometric mean predicted-to-observed (P/O) ratio for soil was 0.93 with a geometric standard deviation of 1.6. The model systematically underpredicted concentrations near the 903 Area because large, nonrespirable particles that deposited close to the source were not included in release estimates. Plutonium soil inventories for the model domain had P/O ratios ranging from 0.22 to 4.2. The geometric mean P/O ratio for ambient air was 0.90 with a geometric standard deviation of 2.6. Age-dated sediment cores from Standley Lake had a geometric mean P/O ratio of 1.0 with a geometric standard deviation of 1.7. Predicted-to-observed ratios for plutonium inventories in Great Western Reservoir ranged from 0.36 to 1.7. Lifetime cancer incidence risks were calculated for a male laborer scenario who resided in the model domain for the entire assessment time. Maximum cancer risks ranged from 10-6 (5th percentile) to 10(-4) (95th percentile). Most of

  17. Bleeding complications associated with warfarin treatment in ischemic stroke patients with atrial fibrillation: a population-based cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Seet, Raymond CS; Rabinstein, Alejandro A; Christianson, Teresa JH; Petty, George W; Brown, Robert D

    2013-01-01

    Background Bleeding events are the major obstacle to the widespread use of warfarin for secondary stroke prevention. Previous studies have not examined the use of risk stratification scores to estimate lifetime bleeding risk associated with warfarin treatment in a population-based setting. The purpose of this study is to determine the lifetime risk of bleeding events in ischemic stroke patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) undergoing warfarin treatment in a population-based cohort and to evaluate the use of bleeding risk scores to identify patients at high-risk for lifetime bleeding events. Methods The resources of the Rochester Epidemiology Project Medical Linkage System were used to identify acute ischemic stroke patients with atrial fibrillation undergoing warfarin treatment for secondary stroke prevention from 1980 to 1994. Medical information for patients seen at Mayo Clinic and at Olmsted Medical Center were used to retrospectively risk-stratify stroke patients according to bleeding risk scores (including the HAS-BLED and HEMORR2HAGES scores) prior to warfarin initiation. These scores were reassessed one and five years later, and compared with lifetime bleeding events. Results One hundred patients (mean age, 79.3 years; 68% women) were studied. Ninety-nine patients were followed to death. Major bleeding events occurred in 41 patients at a median of 19 months following warfarin initiation. Patients with a history of hemorrhage before warfarin treatment were more likely to develop major hemorrhage (15% vs 3%, p=0.04). Patients with baseline HAS-BLED scores ≥2 had a higher lifetime risk of major bleeding events compared with those with scores ≤1 (53% vs 7%, p<0.01), while those with HEMORR2HAGES score ≥2 had a higher life-time risk of major bleeding events compared with those with scores ≤1 (52% vs 16%, p=0.03). Patients with an increase in the HAS-BLED and HEMORR2HAGES scores during follow-up had a higher remaining lifetime risk of major bleeding

  18. Calendar ageing analysis of a LiFePO4/graphite cell with dynamic model validations: Towards realistic lifetime predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sarasketa-Zabala, E.; Gandiaga, I.; Rodriguez-Martinez, L. M.; Villarreal, I.

    2014-12-01

    The present study aims at establishing a methodology for a comprehensive calendar ageing predictive model development, focusing specially on validation procedures. A LFP-based Li-ion cell performance degradation was analysed under different temperature and SOC storage conditions. Five static calendar ageing conditions were used for understanding the ageing trends and modelling the dominant ageing phenomena (SEI growth and the resulting loss of active lithium). The validation process included an additional test under other constant operating conditions (static validation) and other four tests under non-constant impact factors operating schemes within the same experiment (dynamic validation), in response to battery stress conditions in real applications. Model predictions are in good agreement with experimental results as the residuals are always below 1% for experiments run for 300-650 days. The model is able to predict dynamic behaviour close to real operating conditions and the level of accuracy corresponds to a root-mean-square error of 0.93%.

  19. Our Allotted Lifetimes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gould, Stephen Jay

    1977-01-01

    It is suggested that measured by the internal clock of heartbeats or breathing, all mammals live a similar lifespan. This is based on the fact that mammals, regardless of size, breathe about 200 million times in their lifetime at a rate of 1 breath for every 4 heartbeats. (AJ)

  20. Colloquium: The neutron lifetime

    SciTech Connect

    Greene, Geoffrey L; Wietfeldt, F

    2011-01-01

    The decay of the free neutron into a proton, electron, and antineutrino is the prototype semileptonic weak decay and is the simplest example of nuclear beta decay. It played a key role in the early Universe as it determined the ratio of neutrons to protons during the era of primordial light element nucleosynthesis. Neutron decay is physically related to important processes in solar physics and neutrino detection. The mean neutron lifetime has been the subject of more than 20 major experiments done, using a variety of methods, between 1950 and the present. The most precise recent measurements have stated accuracies approaching 0.1%, but are not in good agreement as they differ by as much as 5 sigma using quoted uncertainties. The history of neutron lifetime measurements is reviewed and the different methods used are described, giving important examples of each. The discrepancies and some systematic issues in the experiments that may be responsible are discussed, and it is shown by means of global averages that the neutron lifetime is likely to lie in the range of 880 884 s. Plans and prospects for future experiments are considered that will address these systematic issues and improve our knowledge of the neutron lifetime.

  1. Implementation of Remaining Useful Lifetime Transformer Models in the Fleet-Wide Prognostic and Health Management Suite

    SciTech Connect

    Agarwal, Vivek; Lybeck, Nancy J.; Pham, Binh; Rusaw, Richard; Bickford, Randall

    2015-02-01

    Research and development efforts are required to address aging and reliability concerns of the existing fleet of nuclear power plants. As most plants continue to operate beyond the license life (i.e., towards 60 or 80 years), plant components are more likely to incur age-related degradation mechanisms. To assess and manage the health of aging plant assets across the nuclear industry, the Electric Power Research Institute has developed a web-based Fleet-Wide Prognostic and Health Management (FW-PHM) Suite for diagnosis and prognosis. FW-PHM is a set of web-based diagnostic and prognostic tools and databases, comprised of the Diagnostic Advisor, the Asset Fault Signature Database, the Remaining Useful Life Advisor, and the Remaining Useful Life Database, that serves as an integrated health monitoring architecture. The main focus of this paper is the implementation of prognostic models for generator step-up transformers in the FW-PHM Suite. One prognostic model discussed is based on the functional relationship between degree of polymerization, (the most commonly used metrics to assess the health of the winding insulation in a transformer) and furfural concentration in the insulating oil. The other model is based on thermal-induced degradation of the transformer insulation. By utilizing transformer loading information, established thermal models are used to estimate the hot spot temperature inside the transformer winding. Both models are implemented in the Remaining Useful Life Database of the FW-PHM Suite. The Remaining Useful Life Advisor utilizes the implemented prognostic models to estimate the remaining useful life of the paper winding insulation in the transformer based on actual oil testing and operational data.

  2. Debris shield survivability and lifetimes for NIF

    SciTech Connect

    Davis, S; Duewer, T; Eder, D; Ertel, J; Horton, R; Latkowski, Brereton, S; MacGowan, B; Thomas, I; Tobin, M; Zaka, F

    1999-09-01

    The survivability and performance of the NIF debris shields on the National Ignition Facility are a key factor for the successful conduct and affordable operation of the facility. Estimates of debris shield lifetime in the presence of target emissions indicate severely shortened lifetimes. We have tested a new coating design that improves debris shield cleaning. A combination of modeling and continuous data collection on NIF is described/recommended to allow cost effective debris shield operation.

  3. Correlates of Weight Instability across the Lifespan in a Population-Based Sample

    PubMed Central

    Serdar, Kasey L.; Mazzeo, Suzanne E.; Mitchell, Karen S.; Aggen, Steven H.; Kendler, Kenneth S.; Bulik, Cynthia M.

    2014-01-01

    Objective Research from overweight/obese clinical samples links weight instability to poor health. This study investigated whether negative health outcomes were associated with weight instability in a population-based sample. Method One thousand five hundred ten women and 1,111 men from the Mid-Atlantic Twin Registry completed questionnaires assessing demographics, body size in childhood, adolescence, and adulthood, health satisfaction, and disordered eating. Noneating disorder psychiatric diagnoses were assessed via clinical interviews. Results Weight instability was related to lower health satisfaction and self-esteem, and higher body dissatisfaction, dieting, and binge eating for both sexes. Weight unstable women were more likely to meet criteria for lifetime major depressive disorder, generalized anxiety disorder, and eating disorders. Weight stable women were more likely to abuse alcohol; however, two of these associations [e.g. weight instability and generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) and weight stability and alcohol abuse] became non-significant once lifetime binge eating was accounted for, indicating that these forms of psychopathology are more strongly related to binge eating than weight instability itself. No associations between weight stability and psychiatric diagnoses were found in men. Discussion Weight instability is related to mental and physical health concerns for both sexes. It was also specifically associated with depression and eating pathology in women. PMID:20957706

  4. Estimating the long-term effects of in vitro fertilization in Greece: an analysis based on a lifetime-investment model

    PubMed Central

    Fragoulakis, Vassilis; Maniadakis, Nikolaos

    2013-01-01

    Objective To quantify the economic effects of a child conceived by in vitro fertilization (IVF) in terms of net tax revenue from the state’s perspective in Greece. Methods Based on previous international experience, a mathematical model was developed to assess the lifetime productivity of a single individual and his/her lifetime transactions with governmental agencies. The model distinguished among three periods in the economic life cycle of an individual: (1) early life, when the government primarily contributes resources through child tax credits, health care, and educational expenses; (2) employment, when individuals begin returning resources through taxes; and (3) retirement, when the government expends additional resources on pensions and health care. The cost of a live birth with IVF was based on the modification of a previously published model developed by the authors. All outcomes were discounted at a 3% discount rate. The data inputs – namely, the economic or demographic variables – were derived from the National Statistical Secretariat of Greece and other relevant sources. To deal with uncertainty, bias-corrected uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated based on 5000 Monte Carlo simulations. In addition, to examine the robustness of our results, other one-way sensitivity analyses were also employed. Results The cost of IVF per birth was estimated at €17,015 (95% UI: €13,932–€20,200). The average projected income generated by an individual throughout his/her productive life was €258,070 (95% UI: €185,376–€339,831). In addition, his/her life tax contribution was estimated at €133,947 (95% UI: €100,126–€177,375), while the discounted governmental expenses for elderly and underage individuals were €67,624 (95% UI: €55,211–€83,930). Hence, the net present value of IVF was €60,435 (95% UI: €33,651–€94,330), representing a 182% net return on investment. Results remained constant under various assumptions for the

  5. POPULATION-BASED EXPOSURE AND DOSE MODELING FOR AIR POLLUTANTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    This task will address EPA's need to better understand the variability in personal exposure to air pollutants for the purpose of assessing what populations are at risk for adverse health outcomes due to air pollutant exposures. To improve our understanding of exposures to air po...

  6. The atmospheric lifetime of black carbon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cape, J. N.; Coyle, M.; Dumitrean, P.

    2012-11-01

    Black carbon (BC) in the atmosphere contributes to the human health effects of particulate matter and contributes to radiative forcing of climate. The lifetime of BC, particularly the smaller particle sizes (PM2.5) which can be transported over long distances, is therefore an important factor in determining the range of such effects, and the spatial footprint of emission controls. Theory and models suggest that the typical lifetime of BC is around one week. The frequency distributions of measurements of a range of hydrocarbons at a remote rural site in southern Scotland (Auchencorth Moss) between 2007 and 2010 have been used to quantify the relationship between atmospheric lifetime and the geometric standard deviation of observed concentration. The analysis relies on an assumed common major emission source for hydrocarbons and BC, namely diesel-engined vehicles. The logarithm of the standard deviation of the log-transformed concentration data is linearly related to hydrocarbon lifetime, and the same statistic for BC can be used to assess the lifetime of BC relative to the hydrocarbons. Annual average data show BC lifetimes in the range 4-12 days, for an assumed OH concentration of 7 × 105 cm-3. At this site there is little difference in BC lifetime between winter and summer, despite a 3-fold difference in relative hydrocarbon lifetimes. This observation confirms the role of wet deposition as an important removal process for BC, as there is no difference in precipitation between winter and summer at this site. BC lifetime was significantly greater in 2010, which had 23% less rainfall than the preceding 3 years.

  7. Discriminating famous from fictional names based on lifetime experience: evidence in support of a signal-detection model based on finite mixture distributions.

    PubMed

    Bowles, Ben; Harlow, Iain M; Meeking, Melissa M; Köhler, Stefan

    2012-01-01

    It is widely accepted that signal-detection mechanisms contribute to item-recognition memory decisions that involve discriminations between targets and lures based on a controlled laboratory study episode. Here, the authors employed mathematical modeling of receiver operating characteristics (ROC) to determine whether and how a signal-detection mechanism contributes to discriminations between moderately famous and fictional names based on lifetime experience. Unique to fame judgments is a lack of control over participants' previous exposure to the stimuli deemed "targets" by the experimenter; specifically, if they pertain to moderately famous individuals, participants may have had no prior exposure to a substantial proportion of the famous names presented. The authors adopted established models from the recognition-memory literature to examine the quantitative fit that could be obtained through the inclusion of signal-detection and threshold mechanisms for two data sets. They first established that a signal-detection process operating on graded evidence is critical to account for the fame judgment data they collected. They then determined whether the graded memory evidence for famous names would best be described with one distribution with greater variance than that for the fictional names, or with two finite mixture distributions for famous names that correspond to items with or without prior exposure, respectively. Analyses revealed that a model that included a d' parameter, as well as a mixture parameter, provided the best compromise between number of parameters and quantitative fit. Additional comparisons between this equal-variance signal-detection mixture model and a dual-process model, which included a high-threshold process in addition to a signal-detection process, also favored the former model. In support of the conjecture that the mixture parameter captures participants' prior experience, the authors found that it was increased when the analysis was

  8. Measurement of Beam Lifetime and Applications for SPEAR3

    SciTech Connect

    Huang, Xiaobiao; Corbett, Jeff; /SLAC

    2011-04-05

    Beam lifetime studies for the SPEAR3 storage ring are presented. The three lifetime components are separated with lifetime measurements under various combinations of beam currents and fill patterns and vertical scraper scans. Touschek lifetime is studied with rf voltage scans and with the horizontal or vertical scrapers inserted. The measurements are explained with calculations based on the calibrated lattice model. Quantum lifetime measurements are performed with reduced longitudinal and horizontal apertures, respectively, from which we deduce the radiation energy loss down to a few keV per revolution and the horizontal beam size.

  9. Maximizing TDRS Command Load Lifetime

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brown, Aaron J.

    2002-01-01

    The GNC software onboard ISS utilizes TORS command loads, and a simplistic model of TORS orbital motion to generate onboard TORS state vectors. Each TORS command load contains five "invariant" orbital elements which serve as inputs to the onboard propagation algorithm. These elements include semi-major axis, inclination, time of last ascending node crossing, right ascension of ascending node, and mean motion. Running parallel to the onboard software is the TORS Command Builder Tool application, located in the JSC Mission Control Center. The TORS Command Builder Tool is responsible for building the TORS command loads using a ground TORS state vector, mirroring the onboard propagation algorithm, and assessing the fidelity of current TORS command loads onboard ISS. The tool works by extracting a ground state vector at a given time from a current TORS ephemeris, and then calculating the corresponding "onboard" TORS state vector at the same time using the current onboard TORS command load. The tool then performs a comparison between these two vectors and displays the relative differences in the command builder tool GUI. If the RSS position difference between these two vectors exceeds the tolerable lim its, a new command load is built using the ground state vector and uplinked to ISS. A command load's lifetime is therefore defined as the time from when a command load is built to the time the RSS position difference exceeds the tolerable limit. From the outset of TORS command load operations (STS-98), command load lifetime was limited to approximately one week due to the simplicity of both the onboard propagation algorithm, and the algorithm used by the command builder tool to generate the invariant orbital elements. It was soon desired to extend command load lifetime in order to minimize potential risk due to frequent ISS commanding. Initial studies indicated that command load lifetime was most sensitive to changes in mean motion. Finding a suitable value for mean motion

  10. Global three-dimensional model calculations of the budgets and present-day atmospheric lifetimes of CF2ClCFCl2 (CFC-113) and CHClF2 (CFC-22)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Golombek, Amram; Prinn, Ronald G.

    1989-01-01

    The annual percentage increases in concentrations of the chlorofluorocarbons CFC-113 (an industrial solvent) and CFC-22 (a refrigerant) are the highest among major chlorofluorocarbons in the atmosphere today. The present-day atmospheric lifetimes for these species are computed using a global three-dimensional dynamical-chemical model. The present-day lifetimes of both are long (15.5 years for CFC-22 and 136 or 195 years for CFC-113, depending on assumed O2 absorption cross sections), underscoring the need to decrease their emissions in order to minimize their future role in ozone destruction and greenhouse warming.

  11. Importance of population-based studies in clinical practice

    PubMed Central

    Ronnie, George; Ve, Ramesh Sathyamangalam; Velumuri, Lokapavani; Asokan, Rashima; Vijaya, Lingam

    2011-01-01

    In the last decade, there have been reports on the prevalence of glaucoma from the Vellore Eye Survey, Andhra Pradesh Eye Diseases Survey, Aravind Comprehensive Eye Survey, Chennai Glaucoma Study and West Bengal Glaucoma Study. Population-based studies provide important information regarding the prevalence and risk factors for glaucoma. They also highlight regional differences in the prevalence of various types of glaucoma. It is possible to gather important insights regarding the number of persons affected with glaucoma and the proportion with undiagnosed disease. We reviewed the different population-based studies from India and compare their findings. The lacunae in ophthalmic care that can be inferred from these studies are identified and possible reasons and solutions are discussed. We also discuss the clinical relevance of the various findings, and how it reflects on clinical practice in the country. Since India has a significantly high disease burden, we examine the possibility of population-based screening for disease in the Indian context. PMID:21150021

  12. Evolution of one-particle and double-occupied Green functions for the Hubbard model, with interaction, at half-filling with lifetime effects within the moment approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schafroth, S.; Rodríguez-Núñez, J. J.

    1999-08-01

    We evaluate the one-particle and double-occupied Green functions for the Hubbard model at half-filling using the moment approach of Nolting [Z. Phys. 255, 25 (1972); Grund Kurs: Theoretische Physik. 7 Viel-Teilchen-Theorie (Verlag Zimmermann-Neufang, Ulmen, 1992)]. Our starting point is a self-energy, Σ(k-->,ω), which has a single pole, Ω(k-->), with spectral weight, α(k-->), and quasiparticle lifetime, γ(k-->) [J. J. Rodríguez-Núñez and S. Schafroth, J. Phys. Condens. Matter 10, L391 (1998); J. J. Rodríguez-Núñez, S. Schafroth, and H. Beck, Physica B (to be published); (unpublished)]. In our approach, Σ(k-->,ω) becomes the central feature of the many-body problem and due to three unknown k--> parameters we have to satisfy only the first three sum rules instead of four as in the canonical formulation of Nolting [Z. Phys. 255, 25 (1972); Grund Kurs: Theoretische Physik. 7 Viel-Teilchen-Theorie (Verlag Zimmermann-Neufang, Ulmen, 1992)]. This self-energy choice forces our system to be a non-Fermi liquid for any value of the interaction, since it does not vanish at zero frequency. The one-particle Green function, G(k-->,ω), shows the fingerprint of a strongly correlated system, i.e., a double peak structure in the one-particle spectral density, A(k-->,ω), vs ω for intermediate values of the interaction. Close to the Mott insulator-transition, A(k-->,ω) becomes a wide single peak, signaling the absence of quasiparticles. Similar behavior is observed for the real and imaginary parts of the self-energy, Σ(k-->,ω). The double-occupied Green function, G2(q-->,ω), has been obtained from G(k-->,ω) by means of the equation of motion. The relation between G2(q-->,ω) and the self-energy, Σ(k-->,ω), is formally established and numerical results for the spectral function of G2(k-->,ω), χ(2)(k-->,ω)≡-(1/π)δ-->0+Im[G2(k-->,ω)], are given. Our approach represents the simplest way to include (1) lifetime effects in the moment approach of Nolting, as

  13. Measurements of heavy quark and lepton lifetimes

    SciTech Connect

    Jaros, J.A.

    1985-02-01

    The PEP/PETRA energy range has proved to be well-suited for the study of the lifetimes of hadrons containing the b and c quarks and the tau lepton for several reasons. First, these states comprise a large fraction of the total interaction rate in e/sup +/e/sup -/ annihilation and can be cleanly identified. Second, the storage rings have operated at high luminosity and so produced these exotic states copiously. And finally, thanks to the interplay of the Fermi coupling strength, the quark and lepton masses, and the beam energy, the expected decay lengths are in the 1/2 mm range and so are comparatively easy to measure. This pleasant coincidence of cleanly identified and abundant signal with potentially large effects has made possible the first measurements of two fundamental weak couplings, tau ..-->.. nu/sub tau/W and b ..-->.. cW. These measurements have provided a sharp test of the standard model and allowed, for the first time, the full determination of the magnitudes of the quark mixing matrix. This paper reviews the lifetime studies made at PEP during the past year. It begins with a brief review of the three detectors, DELCO, MAC and MARK II, which have reported lifetime measurements. Next it discusses two new measurements of the tau lifetime, and briefly reviews a measurement of the D/sup 0/ lifetime. Finally, it turns to measurements of the B lifetime, which are discussed in some detail. 18 references, 14 figures, 1 table.

  14. Experimental Tests on the Lifetime Asymmetry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shi, Zhi-Qiang; Ni, Guang-Jiong

    The experimental test problem of the left-right polarization-dependent lifetime asymmetry is discussed. It shows that the existing experiments cannot demonstrate the lifetime asymmetry to be right or wrong after analyzing the measurements on the neutron, the muon and the tau lifetime, as well as the g-2 experiment. However, it is pointed out emphatically that the SLD and the E158 experiments, the measurements of the left-right integrated cross section asymmetry in Z boson production by e+e- collisions and by electron-electron Møller scattering, can indirectly demonstrate the lifetime asymmetry. In order to directly demonstrate the lifetime asymmetry, we propose some possible experiments on the decays of polarized muons. The precise measurement of the lifetime asymmetry could have important significance for building a muon collider, also in cosmology and astrophysics. It would provide a sensitive test of the standard model in particle physics and allow for exploration of the possible V+A interactions.

  15. Cost-effectiveness of population-based screening for colorectal cancer: a comparison of guaiac-based faecal occult blood testing, faecal immunochemical testing and flexible sigmoidoscopy

    PubMed Central

    Sharp, L; Tilson, L; Whyte, S; O'Ceilleachair, A; Walsh, C; Usher, C; Tappenden, P; Chilcott, J; Staines, A; Barry, M; Comber, H

    2012-01-01

    Background: Several colorectal cancer-screening tests are available, but it is uncertain which provides the best balance of risks and benefits within a screening programme. We evaluated cost-effectiveness of a population-based screening programme in Ireland based on (i) biennial guaiac-based faecal occult blood testing (gFOBT) at ages 55–74, with reflex faecal immunochemical testing (FIT); (ii) biennial FIT at ages 55–74; and (iii) once-only flexible sigmoidoscopy (FSIG) at age 60. Methods: A state-transition model was used to estimate costs and outcomes for each screening scenario vs no screening. A third party payer perspective was adopted. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were undertaken. Results: All scenarios would be considered highly cost-effective compared with no screening. The lowest incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER vs no screening €589 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained) was found for FSIG, followed by FIT (€1696) and gFOBT (€4428); gFOBT was dominated. Compared with FSIG, FIT was associated with greater gains in QALYs and reductions in lifetime cancer incidence and mortality, but was more costly, required considerably more colonoscopies and resulted in more complications. Results were robust to variations in parameter estimates. Conclusion: Population-based screening based on FIT is expected to result in greater health gains than a policy of gFOBT (with reflex FIT) or once-only FSIG, but would require significantly more colonoscopy resources and result in more individuals experiencing adverse effects. Weighing these advantages and disadvantages presents a considerable challenge to policy makers. PMID:22343624

  16. Occupational exposure to asbestos and lung cancer in men: evidence from a population-based case-control study in eight Canadian provinces

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Asbestos is classified as a human carcinogen, and studies have consistently demonstrated that workplace exposure to it increases the risk of developing lung cancer. Few studies have evaluated risks in population-based settings where there is a greater variety in the types of occupations, and exposures. Methods This was a population based case–control study with 1,681 incident cases of lung cancer, and 2,053 controls recruited from 8 Canadian provinces between 1994 and 1997. Self-reported questionnaires were used to elicit a lifetime occupational history, including general tasks, and information for other risk factors. Occupational hygienists, who were blinded to case–control status, assigned asbestos exposures to each job on the basis of (i) concentration (low, medium, high), (ii) frequency (<5%, 5-30%, and >30% of the time in a normal work week), and (iii) reliability (possible, probable, definite). Logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results Those occupationally exposed to (i) low, and (ii) medium or high concentrations of asbestos had ORs for lung cancer of 1.17 (95% CI=0.92 – 1.50) and 2.16 (95% CI=1.21-3.88), respectively, relative to those who were unexposed. Medium or high exposure to asbestos roughly doubled the risk for lung cancer across all three smoking pack-year categories. The joint relationship between smoking and asbestos was consistent with a multiplicative risk model. Conclusions Our findings provide further evidence that exposure to asbestos has contributed to an increased risk of lung cancer in Canadian workplaces, and suggests that nearly 3% of lung cancers among Canadian men are caused by occupational exposure to asbestos. PMID:23234401

  17. Dependence of the charge exchange lifetimes on mirror latitude

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, P. H.; Bewtra, N. K.

    1976-01-01

    The dependence of the charge exchange lifetimes on the mirror latitude for ions mirroring off the geomagnetic equator was re-computed using the improved hydrogen distribution models. The Chamberlain model was used to define the spatial distribution of the neutral hydrogen environment through which the ring current ions traverse. The resultant dependence of the charge exchange lifetime on mirror latitude is best fitted by the approximation that contains the charge exchange lifetime for equatorial particles.

  18. Measurement of the Ds lifetime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fermilab E791 Collaboration; Aitala, E. M.; Amato, S.; Anjos, J. C.; Appel, J. A.; Ashery, D.; Banerjee, S.; Bediaga, I.; Blaylock, G.; Bracker, S. B.; Burchat, P. R.; Burnstein, R. A.; Carter, T.; Carvalho, H. S.; Copty, N. K.; Cremaldi, L. M.; Darling, C.; Denisenko, K.; Fernandez, A.; Fox, G. F.; Gagnon, P.; Gobel, C.; Gounder, K.; Halling, A. M.; Herrera, G.; Hurvits, G.; James, C.; Kasper, P. A.; Kwan, S.; Langs, D. C.; Leslie, J.; Lundberg, B.; Maytal-Beck, S.; Meadows, B.; de Mello Neto, J. R. T.; Mihalcea, D.; Milburn, R. H.; de Miranda, J. M.; Napier, A.; Nguyen, A.; D'Oliveira, A. B.; O'Shaughnessy, K.; Peng, K. C.; Perera, L. P.; Purohit, M. V.; Quinn, B.; Radeztsky, S.; Rafatian, A.; Reay, N. W.; Reidy, J. J.; Dos Reis, A. C.; Rubin, H. A.; Sanders, D. A.; Santha, A. K. S.; Santoro, A. F. S.; Schwartz, A. J.; Sheaff, M.; Sidwell, R. A.; Slaughter, A. J.; Sokoloff, M. D.; Solano, J.; Stanton, N. R.; Stefanski, R. J.; Stenson, K.; Summers, D. J.; Takach, S.; Thorne, K.; Tripathi, A. K.; Watanabe, S.; Weiss-Babai, R.; Wiener, J.; Witchey, N.; Wolin, E.; Yang, S. M.; Yi, D.; Yoshida, S.; Zaliznyak, R.; Zhang, C.

    1999-01-01

    We report the results of a precise measurement of the Ds meson lifetime based on 1662+/-56 fully reconstructed Ds-->φπ decays, from the charm hadroproduction experiment E791 at Fermilab. Using an unbinned maximum likelihood fit, we measure the Ds lifetime to be 0.518+/-0.014+/-0.007 ps. The ratio of the measured Ds lifetime to the world average D0 lifetime [1] is 1.25+/-0.04. This result differs from unity by six standard deviations, indicating significantly different lifetimes for the Ds and the D0.

  19. Influence of age, sex and calendar year on lifetime accumulated red bone marrow dose from diagnostic radiation exposure.

    PubMed

    Hoffmann, Wolfgang; Meiboom, Merle Friederike; Weitmann, Kerstin; Terschüren, Claudia; von Boetticher, Heiner

    2013-01-01

    Our aim is to evaluate the relevance of different factors influencing lifetime accumulated red bone marrow dose, such as calendar year, age and sex. The lifetime dose was estimated for controls interviewed in person (N = 2811, 37.5% women) of the population-based representative Northern Germany Leukemia and Lymphoma Study. Data were assessed in standardized computer-assisted personal interviews. The calculation of doses is based on a comprehensive quantification model including calendar year, sex, kind of examination, and technical development. In multivariate regression models the annual red bone marrow dose was analyzed depending on age, sex and calendar year to consider simultaneously temporal changes in radiologic practice and individual risk factors. While the number of examinations continuously rises over time, the dose shows two peaks around 1950 and after 1980. Men are exposed to higher doses than woman. Until 1970 traditional examinations like conventional and mass screening examinations caused the main dose. They were then replaced by technically advanced examinations mainly computed tomography and cardiac catheter. The distribution of the red bone marrow dose over lifetime depends highly on the technical standards and radiation protection survey. To a lesser extent it is influenced by age and sex of the subjects. Thus epidemiological studies concerning the assessment of radiation exposure should consider the calendar year in which the examination was conducted. PMID:24244286

  20. A satellite mortality study to support space systems lifetime prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fox, George; Salazar, Ronald; Habib-Agahi, Hamid; Dubos, Gregory F.

    Estimating the operational lifetime of satellites and spacecraft is a complex process. Operational lifetime can differ from mission design lifetime for a variety of reasons. Unexpected mortality can occur due to human errors in design and fabrication, to human errors in launch and operations, to random anomalies of hardware and software or even satellite function degradation or technology change, leading to unrealized economic or mission return. This study focuses on data collection of public information using, for the first time, a large, publically available dataset, and preliminary analysis of satellite lifetimes, both operational lifetime and design lifetime. The objective of this study is the illustration of the relationship of design life to actual lifetime for some representative classes of satellites and spacecraft. First, a Weibull and Exponential lifetime analysis comparison is performed on the ratio of mission operating lifetime to design life, accounting for terminated and ongoing missions. Next a Kaplan-Meier survivor function, standard practice for clinical trials analysis, is estimated from operating lifetime. Bootstrap resampling is used to provide uncertainty estimates of selected survival probabilities. This study highlights the need for more detailed databases and engineering reliability models of satellite lifetime that include satellite systems and subsystems, operations procedures and environmental characteristics to support the design of complex, multi-generation, long-lived space systems in Earth orbit.

  1. A Satellite Mortality Study to Support Space Systems Lifetime Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fox, George; Salazar, Ronald; Habib-Agahi, Hamid; Dubos, Gregory

    2013-01-01

    Estimating the operational lifetime of satellites and spacecraft is a complex process. Operational lifetime can differ from mission design lifetime for a variety of reasons. Unexpected mortality can occur due to human errors in design and fabrication, to human errors in launch and operations, to random anomalies of hardware and software or even satellite function degradation or technology change, leading to unrealized economic or mission return. This study focuses on data collection of public information using, for the first time, a large, publically available dataset, and preliminary analysis of satellite lifetimes, both operational lifetime and design lifetime. The objective of this study is the illustration of the relationship of design life to actual lifetime for some representative classes of satellites and spacecraft. First, a Weibull and Exponential lifetime analysis comparison is performed on the ratio of mission operating lifetime to design life, accounting for terminated and ongoing missions. Next a Kaplan-Meier survivor function, standard practice for clinical trials analysis, is estimated from operating lifetime. Bootstrap resampling is used to provide uncertainty estimates of selected survival probabilities. This study highlights the need for more detailed databases and engineering reliability models of satellite lifetime that include satellite systems and subsystems, operations procedures and environmental characteristics to support the design of complex, multi-generation, long-lived space systems in Earth orbit.

  2. Perinatal risk factors in offenders with severe personality disorder: a population-based investigation

    PubMed Central

    Fazel, Seena; Bakiyeva, Liliya; Cnattingius, Sven; Grann, Martin; Hultman, Christina M.; Lichtenstein, Paul; Geddes, John R.

    2013-01-01

    Although perinatal factors are associated with the development of several psychiatric disorders, it is unknown whether these factors are linked with personality disorder. Cases of personality disorder were drawn from a national registry of all forensic psychiatric evaluations (n=150). Two control groups were used: 1. A sample of forensic evaluations without any psychiatric disorder (n=97) allowing for a nested case-control investigation; 2: A population-based sample matched by age and gender with no history of psychiatric hospitalization (n=1498). Prematurity (<37 weeks of completed gestation) was significantly associated with a diagnosis of personality disorder, both in the nested and the population-based case-control comparisons with adjusted odds ratios (OR) for this risk factors ranging from 2 to 4. Asphyxia (adjusted OR=2.4, 95% CI: 1.4-4.1) and complicated delivery (adjusted OR=1.5, 1.0-2.1) were associated with personality disorder in the population-based study, and the former remained significant in multivariate models. Overall, perinatal complications were found to be associated with a later diagnosis of personality disorder in this selected sample. As with other psychiatric disorders where such associations have been demonstrated, changes during the perinatal period may lead to abnormal brain development and function. PMID:23013342

  3. Association of Lifetime Intellectual Enrichment with Cognitive Decline in the Older Population

    PubMed Central

    Vemuri, Prashanthi; Lesnick, Timothy G.; Przybelski, Scott A.; Machulda, Mary; Knopman, David S.; Mielke, Michelle M.; Roberts, Rosebud O.; Geda, Yonas E.; Rocca, Walter A.; Petersen, Ronald C.; Jack, Clifford R.

    2014-01-01

    IMPORTANCE Intellectual lifestyle enrichment throughout life is increasingly viewed as a protective strategy against commonly observed cognitive decline in the elderly. OBJECTIVE To investigate the association of lifetime intellectual enrichment with baseline cognitive performance and rate of cognitive decline in a non-demented elderly population and to estimate difference (in years) associated with lifetime intellectual enrichment to the onset of cognitive impairment. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS Prospective analysis of subjects enrolled in the Mayo Clinic Study of Aging (MCSA), a longitudinal population-based study of cognitive aging in Olmsted County, Minnesota. We studied 1995 non-demented (1718 cognitively normal, 277 MCI) participants in MCSA who completed intellectual lifestyle measures at baseline and underwent at least one follow-up visit. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES We studied the effect of lifetime intellectual enrichment by separating the variables into two non-overlapping principal components: education/occupation-score and mid/late-life cognitive activity measure based on self-report questionnaires. A global cognitive Z-score served as our summary cognition measure. We used linear mixed-effects models to investigate the associations of demographic and intellectual enrichment measures with global cognitive Z-score trajectories. RESULTS Baseline cognitive performance was lower in older subjects and in those with lower education/occupation, lower mid/late-life cognitive activity, apolipoprotein E4 (APOE) genotype, and in men. The interaction between the two intellectual enrichment measures was significant such that the beneficial effect of mid/late-life cognitive activity on baseline cognitive performance was reduced with increasing education/occupation. Only baseline age, mid/late-life cognitive activity, and APOE4 genotype were significantly associated with longitudinal change in cognitive performance from baseline. For APOE4 carriers with high

  4. Fluorescence lifetime-based optical molecular imaging.

    PubMed

    Kumar, Anand T N

    2011-01-01

    Fluorescence lifetime is a powerful contrast mechanism for in vivo molecular imaging. In this chapter, we describe instrumentation and methods to optimally exploit lifetime contrast using a time domain fluorescence tomography system. The key features of the system are the use of point excitation in free-space using ultrashort laser pulses and non-contact detection using a gated, intensified CCD camera. The surface boundaries of the imaging volume are acquired using a photogrammetric camera integrated with the imaging system, and implemented in theoretical models of light propagation in biological tissue. The time domain data are optimally analyzed using a lifetime-based tomography approach, which is based on extracting a tomographic set of lifetimes and decay amplitudes from the long time decay portion of the time domain data. This approach improves the ability to locate in vivo targets with a resolution better than conventional optical methods. The application of time domain lifetime multiplexing and tomography are illustrated using phantoms and tumor bearing mouse model of breast adenocarcinoma. In the latter application, the time domain approach allows an improved detection of fluorescent protein signals from intact nude mice in the presence of background autofluorescence. This feature has potential applications for longitudinal pre-clinical evaluation of drug treatment response as well as to address fundamental questions related to tumor physiology and metastasis. PMID:21153381

  5. Tropospheric hydroxyl concentrations and the lifetimes of hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prather, Michael J.

    1990-01-01

    Three dimensional fields of modeled tropospheric OH concentrations are used to calculate lifetimes against destruction by OH for many hydrogenated halocarbons, including the CFC alternatives. The OH fields were taken from a 3-D chemical transport model (Spivakovsky et al. 1989) that accurately simulates the global measurements of methyl chloroform (derived lifetime of 5.5 years). The lifetimes of various hydro-halocarbons are shown to be insensitive to possible spatial variations and seasonal cycles. It is possible to scale the HCFC lifetimes to that of methyl chloroform or methane by using the ratio of the rate coefficients for reaction with OH at an appropriate temperature, about 277 K.

  6. Protective effect of Aronia melanocarpa polyphenols against cadmium-induced disorders in bone metabolism: a study in a rat model of lifetime human exposure to this heavy metal.

    PubMed

    Brzóska, Malgorzata M; Rogalska, Joanna; Galazyn-Sidorczuk, Malgorzata; Jurczuk, Maria; Roszczenko, Alicja; Tomczyk, Michal

    2015-03-01

    It was investigated, in a female rat model of low and moderate lifetime human exposure to cadmium (Cd), whether polyphenols from Aronia melanocarpa berries (chokeberry; AMP) may offer protection from this heavy metal-induced disorders in bone metabolism. For this purpose, numerous indices of bone formation (osteocalcin, alkaline phosphatase, osteoprotegerin) and resorption (carboxy-terminal cross-linking telopeptides of type I collagen, soluble receptor activator of nuclear factor-κB ligand) in the serum and/or distal femur epiphysis (trabecular bone region), as well as bone mineral status (volumetric bone mineral density of the femur and content of mineral components, including calcium, in the bone tissue at the distal femur epiphysis) were evaluated in female Wistar rats that received a 0.1% aqueous extract of AMP, as the only drinking fluid (prepared from lyophilized extract by Adamed Consumer Healthcare), and/or Cd in diet (1 and 5mg/kg) for 3, 10, 17, and 24 months. Examination of the phytochemical profile of the aronia extract revealed high content of polyphenols (612.40 ± 3.33 mg/g), including anthocyanins, proanthocyanidins, phenolic acids, and flavonoids. Among detected compounds anthocyanins were identified as dominating. The exposure to Cd, dose- and duration-dependently, enhanced resorption and inhibited formation of the bone tissue resulting in its decreased mineralization. The administration of AMP under the exposure to 1 and 5 mgCd/kg diet provided important protection from this heavy metal-induced disturbances in the bone turnover and changes in the bone mineral status, and the beneficial impact of polyphenols resulted from their independent action and interaction with Cd. These findings suggest that consumption of Aronia melanocarpa polyphenols may play a role in prevention against female skeleton damage due to chronic exposure to Cd and that chokeberry represents the good natural plant candidate for further investigations of its prophylactic use

  7. Population based mortality surveillance in carbon products manufacturing plants.

    PubMed Central

    Teta, M J; Ott, M G; Schnatter, A R

    1987-01-01

    The utility of a population based, corporate wide mortality surveillance system was evaluated after a 10 year observation period of one of the company's divisions. The subject population, 2219 white male, long term employees from Union Carbide Corporation's carbon based electrode and specialty products operations, was followed up for mortality from 1974 to 1983. External comparisons with the United States male population were supplemented with internal comparisons among subgroups of the study population, defined by broad job categories and time related variables, adjusting for important correlates of the healthy worker effect. Significant deficits of deaths were observed for all causes and the major non-cancer causes of death. The numbers of deaths due to malignant neoplasms and respiratory cancer were less than, but not statistically different from, expected. There was a non-significant excess of deaths from lymphopoietic cancer, occurring predominantly among salaried employees. When specific locations were examined, operations with potential exposure to coal tar products exhibited a mortality pattern similar to that of the total cohort. The risk for lung cancer was significantly raised (five observed, 1.4 expected) in one small, but older, location which did not involve coal tar products during the period of employment of these individuals, but which historically used asbestos materials for several unique applications. Although these findings are limited by small numbers and a short observation period, the population based surveillance strategy has provided valuable information regarding the mortality experience of the population, directions for future research, and the allocation of epidemiological resources. PMID:3593661

  8. Population-based seroprevalence of HSV-2 and syphilis in Andhra Pradesh state of India

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Understanding the prevalence and risk factors for common causes of ulcerative genital disease in the general population would inform current STI syndromic management and HIV testing strategies in high HIV prevalence regions of India. Methods Persons 15-49 years old from 32 rural and 34 urban clusters were sampled using a stratified random method to represent adults in the high HIV prevalence Guntur district in Andhra Pradesh state. Interviews were conducted and dry blood spots were collected on 12,617 study participants. Testing for HSV-2 and syphilis was performed. Results Adjusted HSV-2 and syphilis seroprevalence rates were 4.70% and 2.08% for men and 7.07% and 1.42% for women. For men, tattooing, >3 lifetime sex partners, tobacco use, and sex with men in the past 6 months were associated with HSV-2 or syphilis (ORs, 1.66-2.95, p < 0.05). Male circumcision was positively associated with HSV-2 infection (OR, 1.37, p = 0.028) though this could be due to residual confounding. In women, greater than one lifetime partner remained significantly associated with HSV-2 in multivariate analysis (OR, 2.61; 95% CI, 1.39-4.87). Among all behavioral risk factors and other covariates in women and men, HIV infection exhibited the strongest association with HSV-2 and syphilis (ORs, 8.2-14.2, p < 0.001). The proportion of individuals with HSV-2 who were HIV infected was less than the proportion with syphilis who were HIV infected (11.8% vs. 22.7%; p = 0.001). Conclusions Nearly one in four persons surveyed in this population-based study that were seroprevalent for syphilis, were also HIV infected. Common population risk factors for syphilis, HSV-2 and HIV and high rates of co-seroprevalence suggest that HIV testing, STI testing and service strategies for these would benefit from direct linkage in India. PMID:20214795

  9. Population-based advanced practice nursing: where does oncology fit in?

    PubMed

    Lattimer, Jennie Greco

    2013-12-01

    A national work group met in 2004 to discuss the future of advanced practice nursing. The representatives were nursing education, certification, accreditation, and regulation experts, and the goal was to develop a consensus model for advanced practice nursing regulation (Nevidjon et al., 2010). As a result, a set of recommendations was published in an article that defined a new consensus model for advanced practice registered nurse (APRN) regulation (APRN Consensus Workgroup, 2008; Goudreau, 2009). The new model included six population-based focuses of practice (i.e., family and individual across the lifespan, adult and gerontology, neonatal, pediatrics, women's health- and gender-related, and psychiatric and mental health) (Johnson, Dawson, & Brassard, 2010). A goal of the new model was to standardize the licensure, certification, and regulation of nurse practitioners into specific focuses. State boards were facing an increasing number of requests to recognize nurse practitioner specialties (e.g., organ specific, body systems, diseases) (Johnson et al., 2010). The new model helped standardize education programs, which may help certifying agencies set up curriculum review processes to ensure appropriate credentials for APRNs (Johnson et al., 2010). It also supported the mission of nursing to meet future healthcare needs of the public and to protect the public (Johnson et al., 2010). Some advantages exist to delineating into population-based focuses, but the new model leaves out many specialties (e.g., oncology) that encompass the whole person as well as concentrate on certain diseases. PMID:24305476

  10. Lifetime measurement of high spin states in (75) Kr

    SciTech Connect

    Sheikh, Javid; Trivedi, T.; Maurya, K.; Mehrotra, I.; Palit, R.; Naik, Z.; Jain, H. C.; Negi, D.; Mahanto, G.; Kumar, R.; Singh, R.P.; Muralithar, S.; Pancholi, S.C.; Bhowmik, R.K.; Yang, Y-C; Sun, Y.; Dahl, A.; Raju, M.K.; Appannababu, S.; Kumar, S.; Choudhury, D.; Jain, A. K.

    2010-01-01

    The lifetimes of high spin states of {sup 75}Kr have been determined via {sup 50}Cr ({sup 28}Si, 2pn) {sup 75}Kr reaction in positive parity band using the Doppler-shift attenuation method. The transition quadrupole moments Q deduced from lifetime measurements have been compared with {sup 75}Br. Experimental results obtained from lifetime measurement are interpreted in the framework of projected shell model.

  11. Limits to battery lifetime in photovoltaic applications

    SciTech Connect

    Spiers, D.J.; Rasinkoski, A.A.

    1996-10-01

    Battery lifetime in a photovoltaic (PV) system is important in determining life-cycle costs and servicing requirements. We present a simple model for estimating PV battery lifetime which are application- and battery-specific, using data normally available (or easily estimated) at the time of system design. In a correctly designed and operated PV system, one of two properties will limit the ultimate lifetime of the battery: the cycle life or the battery`s resistance to internal corrosion. The cycle life is more or less independent of ambient temperature, but the resistance to internal corrosion falls rapidly at higher ambient temperatures. Whether the cycle life or the temperature-dependent corrosion is the limiting factor on battery life depends on the particular details of the photovoltaic system, especially the type of battery used, the daily depth of discharge and the average ambient temperature experienced. Illustrations are given of the particular circumstances for a variety of PV systems with open (vented) lead-acid batteries, ranging from rural lighting systems and vaccine refrigerators to large telecommunications systems. Where possible, the predicted lifetime is compared to actual field experience. In PV systems using tubular plate vented batteries, it is nearly always the temperature-dependent corrosion process that limits the battery lifetime, and not the cycle life. 6 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  12. Lifetime statistics in chaotic dielectric microresonators

    SciTech Connect

    Schomerus, Henning; Wiersig, Jan; Main, Joerg

    2009-05-15

    We discuss the statistical properties of lifetimes of electromagnetic quasibound states in dielectric microresonators with fully chaotic ray dynamics. Using the example of a resonator of stadium geometry, we find that a recently proposed random-matrix model very well describes the lifetime statistics of long-lived resonances, provided that two effective parameters are appropriately renormalized. This renormalization is linked to the formation of short-lived resonances, a mechanism also known from the fractal Weyl law and the resonance-trapping phenomen0008.

  13. Touschek Lifetime Calculations for NSLS-II

    SciTech Connect

    Nash,B.; Kramer, S.

    2009-05-04

    The Touschek effect limits the lifetime for NSLS-II. The basic mechanism is Coulomb scattering resulting in a longitudinal momentum outside the momentum aperture. The momentum aperture results from a combination of the initial betatron oscillations after the scatter and the non-linear properties determining the resultant stability. We find that higher order multipole errors may reduce the momentum aperture, particularly for scattered particles with energy loss. The resultant drop in Touschek lifetime is minimized, however, due to less scattering in the dispersive regions. We describe these mechanisms, and present calculations for NSLS-II using a realistic lattice model including damping wigglers and engineering tolerances.

  14. The impact of childhood parental loss on risk for mood, anxiety and substance use disorders in a population-based sample of male twins.

    PubMed

    Otowa, Takeshi; York, Timothy P; Gardner, Charles O; Kendler, Kenneth S; Hettema, John M

    2014-12-15

    Previous studies have identified the relationship between parental loss and psychopathology later in life. However, this relationship varied depending on the kind of loss, the parent involved, and the type of psychopathology. In the present study, we examined the association between parental loss (any loss, death, and separation) during childhood and lifetime risk for seven common psychiatric and substance use disorders in a sample of 2605 male twins from the Virginia population-based twin registry. Using structural equation modeling (SEM), we also examined the extent to which the influence of parental loss contributes to adult psychopathology. Parental separation was associated with a wide range of adult psychopathology, whereas parental death was specifically associated with phobia and alcohol dependence. Maternal and paternal separations were almost equally associated with most forms of psychopathology. SEM suggested that parental loss accounted for about 10% of the variance of adult psychopathology, of which parental separation had the strongest impacts on risk for depression and drug abuse/dependence (11% of the total variance). Our findings suggest that early parental separation has stronger and wider effects on adult psychopathology than parental death. PMID:25146695

  15. Prevalence of different forms of child maltreatment among Taiwanese adolescents: a population-based study.

    PubMed

    Feng, Jui-Ying; Chang, Yi-Ting; Chang, Hsin-Yi; Fetzer, Susan; Wang, Jung-Der

    2015-04-01

    Reported cases of child maltreatment are increasing in Taiwan. Yet, comprehensive epidemiological characteristics of adolescents' exposure over the wide spectrum of violence are still lacking. The purpose of this study was to estimate the prevalence and magnitude of child maltreatment among Taiwanese adolescents. A population-based study was conducted with 5,276 adolescents aged 12-18 from 35 schools in 17 cities and townships to determine the prevalence of five forms of child maltreatment in Taiwan. A total of 5,236 adolescents completed anonymous, self-report, structured questionnaires. Most adolescents (91%, n=4,788) experienced at least one form of maltreatment with 83% (n=4,347) exposed during the previous year. Violence exposure was the most common type of child maltreatment experienced, followed by psychological abuse, physical abuse, neglect, and sexual abuse. Adolescents reported an average of 7.4 (SD=5.87) victimizations over their lifetime and 4.8 (SD=4.82) victimizations during the past year. Females reported a higher rate of neglect, while males reported a higher rate of sexual abuse. Most of the sexual abuse perpetrators were known by their victims. Adolescents' victimization and polyvictimization from child maltreatment in Taiwan deserves a review and modification of national control and prevention policies. PMID:25477233

  16. Lung Cancer and Occupation in a Population-based Case-Control Study

    PubMed Central

    Consonni, Dario; De Matteis, Sara; Lubin, Jay H.; Wacholder, Sholom; Tucker, Margaret; Pesatori, Angela Cecilia; Caporaso, Neil E.; Bertazzi, Pier Alberto; Landi, Maria Teresa

    2010-01-01

    The authors examined the relation between occupation and lung cancer in the large, population-based Environment And Genetics in Lung cancer Etiology (EAGLE) case-control study. In 2002–2005 in the Lombardy region of northern Italy, 2,100 incident lung cancer cases and 2,120 randomly selected population controls were enrolled. Lifetime occupational histories (industry and job title) were coded by using standard international classifications and were translated into occupations known (list A) or suspected (list B) to be associated with lung cancer. Smoking-adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated with logistic regression. For men, an increased risk was found for list A (177 exposed cases and 100 controls; odds ratio = 1.74, 95% confidence interval: 1.27, 2.38) and most occupations therein. No overall excess was found for list B with the exception of filling station attendants and bus and truck drivers (men) and launderers and dry cleaners (women). The authors estimated that 4.9% (95% confidence interval: 2.0, 7.8) of lung cancers in men were attributable to occupation. Among those in other occupations, risk excesses were found for metal workers, barbers and hairdressers, and other motor vehicle drivers. These results indicate that past exposure to occupational carcinogens remains an important determinant of lung cancer occurrence. PMID:20047975

  17. Lifetimes of agents under external stress

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilke, Claus O.; Martinetz, Thomas

    1999-03-01

    An exact formula for the distribution of lifetimes in coherent-noise models and related models is derived. For certain stress distributions, this formula can be analytically evaluated and yields simple closed expressions. For those types of stress for which a closed expression is not available, a numerical evaluation can be done in a straightforward way. All results obtained are in perfect agreement with numerical experiments. The implications for the coherent-noise models' application to macroevolution are discussed.

  18. Predictors of Childhood Anxiety: A Population-Based Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Background Few studies have explored predictors of early childhood anxiety. Objective To determine the prenatal, postnatal, and early life predictors of childhood anxiety by age 5. Methods Population-based, provincial administrative data (N = 19,316) from Manitoba, Canada were used to determine the association between demographic, obstetrical, psychosocial, medical, behavioral, and infant factors on childhood anxiety. Results Risk factors for childhood anxiety by age 5 included maternal psychological distress from birth to 12 months and 13 months to 5 years post-delivery and an infant 5-minute Apgar score of ≤7. Factors associated with decreased risk included maternal age < 20 years, multiparity, and preterm birth. Conclusion Identifying predictors of childhood anxiety is a key step to early detection and prevention. Maternal psychological distress is an early, modifiable risk factor. Future research should aim to disentangle early life influences on childhood anxiety occurring in the prenatal, postnatal, and early childhood periods. PMID:26158268

  19. A population-based study of birth defects in Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Thong, M K; Ho, J J; Khatijah, N N

    2005-01-01

    Birth defects are one of the leading causes of paediatric disability and mortality in developed and developing countries. Data on birth defects from population-based studies originating from developing countries are lacking. One of the objectives of this study was to determine the epidemiology of major birth defects in births during the perinatal period in Kinta district, Perak, Malaysia over a 14-month period, using a population-based birth defect register. There were 253 babies with major birth defects in 17,720 births, giving an incidence of 14.3/1000 births, a birth prevalence of 1 in 70. There were 80 babies with multiple birth defects and 173 with isolated birth defects. The exact syndromic diagnosis of the babies with multiple birth defects could not be identified in 18 (22.5%) babies. The main organ systems involved in the isolated birth defects were cardiovascular (13.8%), cleft lip and palate (11.9%), clubfeet (9.1%), central nervous system (CNS) (including neural tube defects) (7.9%), musculoskeletal (5.5%) and gastrointestinal systems (4.7%), and hydrops fetalis (4.3%). The babies with major birth defects were associated with lower birth weights, premature deliveries, higher Caesarean section rates, prolonged hospitalization and increased specialist care. Among the cohort of babies with major birth defects, the mortality rate was 25.2% during the perinatal period. Mothers with affected babies were associated with advanced maternal age, birth defects themselves or their relatives but not in their other offspring, and significantly higher rates of previous abortions. The consanguinity rate of 2.4% was twice that of the control population. It is concluded that a birth defects register is needed to monitor these developments and future interventional trials are needed to reduce birth defects in Malaysia. PMID:16096215

  20. Birth Prevalence of Cerebral Palsy: A Population-Based Study

    PubMed Central

    Van Naarden Braun, Kim; Doernberg, Nancy; Schieve, Laura; Christensen, Deborah; Goodman, Alyson; Yeargin-Allsopp, Marshalyn

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE Population-based data in the United States on trends in cerebral palsy (CP) birth prevalence are limited. The objective of this study was to examine trends in the birth prevalence of congenital spastic CP by birth weight, gestational age, and race/ethnicity in a heterogeneous US metropolitan area. METHODS Children with CP were identified by a population-based surveillance system for developmental disabilities (DDs). Children with CP were included if they were born in metropolitan Atlanta, Georgia, from 1985 to 2002, resided there at age 8 years, and did not have a postneonatal etiology (n = 766). Birth weight, gestational age, and race/ethnicity subanalyses were restricted to children with spastic CP (n = 640). Trends were examined by CP subtype, gender, race/ethnicity, co-occurring DDs, birth weight, and gestational age. RESULTS Birth prevalence of spastic CP per 1000 1-year survivors was stable from 1985 to 2002 (1.9 in 1985 to 1.8 in 2002; 0.3% annual average prevalence; 95% confidence interval [CI] −1.1 to 1.8). Whereas no significant trends were observed by gender, subtype, birth weight, or gestational age overall, CP prevalence with co-occurring moderate to severe intellectual disability significantly decreased (−2.6% [95% CI −4.3 to −0.8]). Racial disparities persisted over time between non-Hispanic black and non-Hispanic white children (prevalence ratio 1.8 [95% CI 1.5 to 2.1]). Different patterns emerged for non-Hispanic white and non-Hispanic black children by birth weight and gestational age. CONCLUSIONS Given improvements in neonatal survival, evidence of stability of CP prevalence is encouraging. Yet lack of overall decreases supports continued monitoring of trends and increased research and prevention efforts. Racial/ethnic disparities, in particular, warrant further study. PMID:26659459

  1. Excessive daytime somnolence and cardiovascular health: A population-based study in rural Ecuador

    PubMed Central

    Del Brutto, Oscar H.; Mera, Robertino M.; Zambrano, Mauricio; Castillo, Pablo R.

    2014-01-01

    In a population-based study conducted in rural Ecuador, 635 stroke-free persons aged ≥40 years were interviewed with the Epworth sleepiness scale and screened to assess their cardiovascular health (CVH) status. Excessive daytime somnolence was present in 22% persons and a poor CVH status in 69%. In a generalized linear model after adjusting for age and sex, excessive daytime somnolence was not associated with a poor CVH status or with any of the individual metrics in the poor range. Excessive daytime somnolence may not be linked to cardiovascular risk factors at the rural level. PMID:26483927

  2. Excessive daytime somnolence and cardiovascular health: A population-based study in rural Ecuador.

    PubMed

    Del Brutto, Oscar H; Mera, Robertino M; Zambrano, Mauricio; Castillo, Pablo R

    2014-12-01

    In a population-based study conducted in rural Ecuador, 635 stroke-free persons aged ≥40 years were interviewed with the Epworth sleepiness scale and screened to assess their cardiovascular health (CVH) status. Excessive daytime somnolence was present in 22% persons and a poor CVH status in 69%. In a generalized linear model after adjusting for age and sex, excessive daytime somnolence was not associated with a poor CVH status or with any of the individual metrics in the poor range. Excessive daytime somnolence may not be linked to cardiovascular risk factors at the rural level. PMID:26483927

  3. Extended lifetime railgap switch

    SciTech Connect

    Cohn, D.B.; Mendoza, P.J.

    1988-02-02

    In a railgap switch of the type having an elongate blade electrode made of conductive material, an elongate housing made of insulating material for supporting the blade electrode and plate electrode in opposed relation extending in the same direction with the blade centered over the plate and separated therefrom by a gap, and a gas filling the housing and the gap, the gas being selected to breakdown and switch from a highly insulative state to a highly conductive state upon application of a high voltage across the blade and plate electrodes, the improvement is described comprising: forming the blade with laterally extending transverse wing portions at the edge of the blade and adjacent the gap so as to extend in spaced parallel relation to the surface of the plate, the blade generally following the contour thereof to form an inverted T-shape structure with the wing portions extending transversely of the elongate dimension of the blade. The wing portions terminating in a pair of spaced parallel edges extending along the elongate direction of the blade to thereby create two spaced elongate edges along which arcs form serving to divide the erosion effects of discharge between them, the current through each edge being one-half of that in single-edge devices with ablation wear reduced accordingly to give significantly larger switch lifetime. The blade and wing portions limiting ablation erosion of the edges in a direction generally align with the plate contour so that the edge-to-plate separation remains substantially constant.

  4. Pinhole shifting lifetime imaging microscopy.

    PubMed

    Ramshesh, Venkat K; Lemasters, John J

    2008-01-01

    Lifetime imaging microscopy is a powerful tool to probe biological phenomena independent of luminescence intensity and fluorophore concentration. We describe time-resolved imaging of long-lifetime luminescence with an unmodified commercial laser scanning confocal/multiphoton microscope. The principle of the measurement is displacement of the detection pinhole to collect delayed luminescence from a position lagging the rasting laser beam. As proof of principle, luminescence from microspheres containing europium (Eu(3+)), a red emitting probe, was compared to that of short-lifetime green-fluorescing microspheres and/or fluorescein and rhodamine in solution. Using 720-nm two-photon excitation and a pinhole diameter of 1 Airy unit, the short-lifetime fluorescence of fluorescein, rhodamine and green microspheres disappeared much more rapidly than the long-lifetime phosphorescence of Eu(3+) microspheres as the pinhole was repositioned in the lagging direction. In contrast, repositioning of the pinhole in the leading and orthogonal directions caused equal loss of short- and long-lifetime luminescence. From measurements at different lag pinhole positions, a lifetime of 270 micros was estimated for the Eu(3+) microspheres, consistent with independent measurements. This simple adaptation is the basis for quantitative 3-D lifetime imaging microscopy. PMID:19123648

  5. Fluorescence lifetime distributions in proteins.

    PubMed Central

    Alcala, J. R.; Gratton, E.; Prendergast, F. G.

    1987-01-01

    The fluorescence lifetime value of tryptophan residues varies by more than a factor of 100 in different proteins and is determined by several factors, which include solvent exposure and interactions with other elements of the protein matrix. Because of the variety of different elements that can alter the lifetime value and the sensitivity to the particular environment of the tryptophan residue, it is likely that non-unique lifetime values result in protein systems. The emission decay of most proteins can be satisfactorily described only using several exponential components. Here it is proposed that continuous lifetime distributions can better represent the observed decay. An approach based on protein dynamics is presented, which provides fluorescence lifetime distribution functions for single tryptophan residue proteins. First, lifetime distributions for proteins interconverting between two conformations, each characterized by a different lifetime value, are derived. The evolution of the lifetime values as a function of the interconversion rate is studied. In this case lifetime distributions can be obtained from a distribution of rates of interconversion between the two conformations. Second, the existence of a continuum of energy substates within a given conformation was considered. The occupation of a particular energy substate at a given temperature is proportional to the Boltzmann factor. The density of energy states of the potential well depends upon the width of the well, which determines the degree of freedom the residue can move in the conformational space. Lifetime distributions can be obtained by association of each energy substate with a different lifetime value and assuming that the average conformation can change as the energy of the substate is increased. Finally, lifetime distributions for proteins interconverting between two conformations, each characterized by a quasi-continuum of energy substates, are presented. The origin of negative components

  6. Clinician Use and Acceptance of Population-Based Data about Respiratory Pathogens: Implications for Enhancing Population-Based Clinical Practice

    PubMed Central

    Gesteland, Per H; Allison, Mandy A; Staes, Catherine J; Samore, Matthew H; Rubin, Michael A; Carter, Marjorie E; Wuthrich, Amyanne; Kinney, Anita Y; Mottice, Susan; Byington, Carrie L

    2008-01-01

    Front line health care providers (HCPs) play a central role in endemic (e.g., pertussis), epidemic (e.g., influenza) and pandemic (e.g., avian influenza) infectious disease outbreaks. Effective preparedness for this role requires access to and awareness of population-based data (PBD). We investigated the degree to which this is currently achieved among HCPs in Utah by surveying a sample about access, awareness and attitudes concerning PBD in clinical practice. We found variability in the number and nature (national vs. local, pushed vs. pulled) of PBD sources accessed by HCPs, with a subset using multiple sources and using them frequently. We found that HCPs believe PBD improves their clinical performance and that they cannot rely on their own practice to remain informed. These findings suggest that an integrated system, which interprets PBD from multiple sources and optimizes the delivery of PBD, may facilitate preparedness of HCPs through the application of PBD in routine clinical practice. PMID:18999305

  7. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models for lifetime exposure to PCB 153 in male and female harbor porpoises (Phocoena phocoena): model development and evaluation.

    PubMed

    Weijs, Liesbeth; Yang, Raymond S H; Covaci, Adrian; Das, Krishna; Blust, Ronny

    2010-09-15

    Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models were developed for the most persistent polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB 153) in male and female harbor porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) to elucidate processes such as uptake, distribution, and elimination. Due to its limited metabolic capacities, long life span, and top position in marine food chains, this species is highly sensitive to pollution. The models consist of 5 compartments, liver, blubber, kidney, brain, and a compartment which accounts for the rest of the body, all connected through blood. All physiological and biochemical parameters were extracted from the literature, except for the brain/blood partition coefficient and rate of excretion, which were both fitted to data sets used for validation of the models. These data sets were compiled from our own analyses performed with GC-MS on tissue samples of harbor porpoises. The intake of PCB 153 was from milk from birth to 4 months, and after weaning fish was the main food source. Overall, these models reveal that concentrations of PCB 153 in males increase with age but suggest that, as the animals grow older, metabolic transformation can be a possible pathway for elimination as well. In contrast, the model for females confirms that gestation and lactation are key processes for eliminating PCB 153 as body burdens decrease with age. These PBPK models are capable of simulating the bioaccumulation of PCB 153 during the entire life span of approximately 20 years of the harbor porpoises. PMID:20718467

  8. Neighborhood Deprivation Is Strongly Associated with Participation in a Population-Based Health Check

    PubMed Central

    Bender, Anne Mette; Kawachi, Ichiro; Jørgensen, Torben; Pisinger, Charlotta

    2015-01-01

    Background We sought to examine whether neighborhood deprivation is associated with participation in a large population-based health check. Such analyses will help answer the question whether health checks, which are designed to meet the needs of residents in deprived neighborhoods, may increase participation and prove to be more effective in preventing disease. In Europe, no study has previously looked at the association between neighborhood deprivation and participation in a population-based health check. Methods The study population comprised 12,768 persons invited for a health check including screening for ischemic heart disease and lifestyle counseling. The study population was randomly drawn from a population of 179,097 persons living in 73 neighborhoods in Denmark. Data on neighborhood deprivation (percentage with basic education, with low income and not in work) and individual socioeconomic position were retrieved from national administrative registers. Multilevel regression analyses with log links and binary distributions were conducted to obtain relative risks, intraclass correlation coefficients and proportional change in variance. Results Large differences between neighborhoods existed in both deprivation levels and neighborhood health check participation rate (mean 53%; range 35-84%). In multilevel analyses adjusted for age and sex, higher levels of all three indicators of neighborhood deprivation and a deprivation score were associated with lower participation in a dose-response fashion. Persons living in the most deprived neighborhoods had up to 37% decreased probability of participating compared to those living in the least deprived neighborhoods. Inclusion of individual socioeconomic position in the model attenuated the neighborhood deprivation coefficients, but all except for income deprivation remained statistically significant. Conclusion Neighborhood deprivation was associated with participation in a population-based health check in a dose

  9. Provider communication on perinatal depression: a population-based study.

    PubMed

    Farr, Sherry L; Ko, Jean Y; Burley, Kim; Gupta, Seema

    2016-02-01

    Women's lack of knowledge on symptoms of perinatal depression and treatment resources is a barrier to receiving care. We sought to estimate the prevalence and predictors of discussing depression with a prenatal care provider. We used the 2011 population-based data from 24 sites participating in the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System (n = 32,827 women with recent live births) to examine associations between maternal characteristics and report that a prenatal care provider discussed with her what to do if feeling depressed during or after pregnancy. Overall, 71.9 % of women reported discussing perinatal depression with their prenatal care provider (range 60.7 % in New York City to 85.6 % in Maine). Women were more likely to report a discussion on perinatal depression with their provider if they they were 18-29 years of age than over 35 years of age compared to older (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR] 18 to 19 y = 1.08, 20 to 24 y = 1.10, 25 to 29 y = 1.09), unmarried (aPR = 1.07) compared to married, had <12 years of education (aPR = 1.05) compared to > 12 years, and had no previous live births (aPR = 1.03) compared to ≥ 1 live births. Research is needed on effective ways to educate women about perinatal depression and whether increased knowledge on perinatal depression results in higher rates of treatment and shorter duration of symptoms. PMID:25578631

  10. A population-based study of large granular lymphocyte leukemia.

    PubMed

    Shah, M V; Hook, C C; Call, T G; Go, R S

    2016-01-01

    Large granular lymphocyte (LGL) leukemia is a lymphoproliferative disorder of cytotoxic cells. T-cell LGL (T-LGL) leukemia is characterized by accumulation of cytotoxic T cells in blood and infiltration of the bone marrow, liver or spleen. Population-based studies have not been reported in LGL leukemia. We present clinical characteristics, natural history and risk factors for poor survival in patients with LGL leukemia using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) and the United States National Cancer Data Base (NCDB). LGL leukemia is an extremely rare disease with the incidence of 0.2 cases per 1 000 000 individuals. The median age at diagnosis was 66.5 years with females likely to be diagnosed at 3 years earlier compared with males. Analysis of patient-level data using NCDB (n=978) showed that 45% patients with T-LGL leukemia required some form of systemic treatment at the time of diagnosis. T-LGL leukemia patients have reduced survival compared with general population, with a median overall survival of 9 years. Multivariate analysis showed that age >60 years at the time of diagnosis and the presence of significant comorbidities were independent predictors of poor survival. PMID:27494824

  11. Histocompatibility antigens in a population based silicosis series.

    PubMed Central

    Kreiss, K; Danilovs, J A; Newman, L S

    1989-01-01

    Individual susceptibility to silicosis is suggested by the lack of a uniform dose response relation and by the presence of immunological epiphenomena, such as increased antibody levels and associated diseases that reflect altered immune regulation. Human leucocyte antigens (HLA) are linked with immune response capability and might indicate a possible genetic susceptibility to silicosis. Forty nine silicotic subjects were identified from chest radiographs in a population based study in Leadville, Colorado. They were interviewed for symptoms and occupational history and gave a blood specimen for HLA-A, -B, -DR, and -DQ typing and for antinuclear antibody, immune complexes, immunoglobulins, and rheumatoid factor. Silicotic subjects had twice the prevalence of B44 (45%) of the reference population and had triple the prevalence of A29 (20%), both of which were statistically significant when corrected for the number of comparisons made. No perturbations in D-region antigen frequencies were detected. B44-positive subjects were older at diagnosis and had less dyspnoea than other subjects. A29-positive subjects were more likely to have abnormal levels of IgA and had higher levels of immune complexes. This study is the first to find significant HLA antigen excesses among a series of silicotic cases and extends earlier reported hypotheses that were based on groups of antigens of which B44 and A29 are components. PMID:2818968

  12. A population-based exposure assessment methodology for carbon monoxide: Development of a carbon monoxide passive sampler and occupational dosimeter

    SciTech Connect

    Apte, M.G.

    1997-09-01

    Two devices, an occupational carbon monoxide (CO) dosimeter (LOCD), and an indoor air quality (IAQ) passive sampler were developed for use in population-based CO exposure assessment studies. CO exposure is a serious public health problem in the U.S., causing both morbidity and mortality (lifetime mortality risk approximately 10{sup -4}). Sparse data from population-based CO exposure assessments indicate that approximately 10% of the U.S. population is exposed to CO above the national ambient air quality standard. No CO exposure measurement technology is presently available for affordable population-based CO exposure assessment studies. The LOCD and IAQ Passive Sampler were tested in the laboratory and field. The palladium-molybdenum based CO sensor was designed into a compact diffusion tube sampler that can be worn. Time-weighted-average (TWA) CO exposure of the device is quantified by a simple spectrophotometric measurement. The LOCD and IAQ Passive Sampler were tested over an exposure range of 40 to 700 ppm-hours and 200 to 4200 ppm-hours, respectively. Both devices were capable of measuring precisely (relative standard deviation <20%), with low bias (<10%). The LOCD was screened for interferences by temperature, humidity, and organic and inorganic gases. Temperature effects were small in the range of 10{degrees}C to 30{degrees}C. Humidity effects were low between 20% and 90% RH. Ethylene (200 ppm) caused a positive interference and nitric oxide (50 ppm) caused a negative response without the presence of CO but not with CO.

  13. Radiative lifetimes in Co I

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nitz, D. E.; Bergeson, S. D.; Lawler, J. E.

    1995-03-01

    New radiative-lifetime measurements based on time-resolved laser-induced fluorescence are reported for 133 odd-parity and 2 even-parity levels of Co I, ranging in energy from 28300 to 59400 cm-1. Our lifetimes agree with earlier, but much less extensive, lifetime measurements based on laser-induced fluorescence. Satisfactory agreement is also found with the critical compilation of atomic transition probabilities from the U.S. National Bureau of Standards [J. Phys. Chem. Ref. Data 17, Suppl 4 (1988)]. Our measurements provide a reliable absolute normalization for a much more comprehensive determination of Co I atomic transition probabilities.

  14. Increased FRC lifetimes using a longer trap

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wurden, G. A.; Grabowski, T. C.; Degnan, J. H.; Domonkos, M. T.; Ruden, E. L.; Frese, M. H.; Frese, S. D.; Camacho, F. J.; Coffey, S. K.; Kiuttu, G. F.; Lynn, A. G.; Yates, K.; Bauer, B. S.; Fuelling, S. R.

    2013-10-01

    Increasing the lifetime of the field reversed plasma in the FRCHX experiment for magnetized target fusion, has been our primary concern for the last two years. We report that the most significant increase in lifetime has resulted from lengthening the magnetic well in the liner trapping region. We have suspected for some time based on modeling and FRC lore, that a longer trapping region would be beneficial, but were constrained by the 10-cm diameter, 30-cm long metal liner. Rather than redesigning implosion hardware, we simply moved the entrance mirror downward 5 cm, and the end mirror upwards 5 cm. Now the distance between the dynamic mirror points is ~30 cm. Trapped flux lifetimes of FRCHX FRCs, as measured from the half maximum of the increasing exclusion radius in the formation region to the half maximum of the decreasing exclusion radius in trapped region now range from ~19 μs to ~ 21 μs. The analogous measure of lifetime just in the trapping region is 14 ~ 16 μs, whereas it used to be only 8-11 μs. Combined with a delay in the start of the FRC formation relative to the liner implosion time, we are well-positioned to conduct another dynamic HEDLP MTF implosion test. Supported by the Fusion Energy Sciences office in DOE, LANS DE-AC52-06NA25396, & AFRL IA DE-AI02-04ER54764.

  15. SIRTF thermal design modifications to increase lifetime

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Petrick, S. W.

    1993-01-01

    An effort was made to increase the predicted lifetime of the SIRTF dewar by lowering the exterior shell temperature, increasing the radiated energy from the vapor cooled shields and reconfiguring the vapor cooled shields. The lifetime increases can be used to increase the scientific return from the mission and as a trade-off against mass and cost. This paper describes the configurations studied, the steady state thermal model used, the analytical methods and the results of the analysis. Much of the heat input to the outside dewar shell is radiative heat transfer from the solar panel. To lower the shell temperature, radiative cooled shields were placed between the solar panel and the dewar shell and between the bus and the dewar shell. Analysis showed that placing a radiator on the outer vapor cooled shield had a significant effect on lifetime. Lengthening the distance between the outer shell and the point where the vapor cooled shields are attached to the support straps also improved lifetime.

  16. Lifetime Measurements in 162Dy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Casarella, Clark; Aprahamian, A.; Lesher, S.; Crider, B.; Lowe, M.; Peters, E.; Prados-Estevez, F.; Ross, T.; Tully, Z.; Yates, S.

    2015-10-01

    Historically, the rare-earth region of nuclei has been a fountainhead for nuclear structure phenomena. One of the more debated structure effects is the nature of excited 0+ bands in nuclei, and continues to be an outstanding challenge in nuclear structure physics; several interpretations exist, and we hope that lifetime measurements can help distinguish between them. 162Dy has an abundance of 0+ states with limited lifetime data; we have measured excitation functions, mean lifetimes, and angular distributions of gamma rays for excited states in 162Dy at the University of Kentucky Accelerator Laboratory. Low lying excited states were populated up to an excitation energy of E < 3.2 MeV, where we will discuss the implications of the lifetimes under this energy threshold. This work was supported by the NSF under contract numbers PHY-1068192, PHY-1205412, and PHY-0956310.

  17. Measurement of the tau lifetime

    SciTech Connect

    Jaros, J.A.

    1982-10-01

    If the tau lepton couples to the charged weak current with universal strength, its lifetime can be expressed in terms of the muon's lifetime, the ratio of the masses of the muon and the tau, and the tau's branching ratio into e anti nu/sub e/ nu/sub tau/ as tau/sub tau/ = tau/sub ..mu../ (m/sub ..mu..//m/sub tau/)/sup 5/ B(tau ..-->.. e anti nu/sub e/nu/sub tau/) = 2.8 +- 0.2 x 10/sup -13/ s. This paper describes the measurement of the tau lifetime made by the Mark II collaboration, using a new high precision drift chamber in contunction with the Mark II detector at PEP. The results of other tau lifetime measurements are summarized.

  18. Recurrent Wheezing in Infants: A Population-Based Study.

    PubMed

    Belhassen, Manon; De Blic, Jacques; Laforest, Laurent; Laigle, Valérie; Chanut-Vogel, Céline; Lamezec, Liliane; Brouard, Jacques; Fauroux, Brigitte; de Pouvourville, Gérard; Ginoux, Marine; Van Ganse, Eric

    2016-04-01

    Recurrent wheezing (RW) has a significant impact on infants, caregivers, and society, but morbidity and related medical resource utilization (MRU) have not been thoroughly explored. The burden of RW needs to be documented with population-based data. The objective was to assess the characteristics, medical management, and MRU of RW infants identified from national claims data.Infants aged from 6 to 24 months, receiving ≥2 dispensations of respiratory drugs within 3 months, and presenting a marker of poor control (index date), were selected. During the 6 months after index date, MRU was described in the cohort and among 3 subgroups with more severe RW, defined as ≥4 dispensations of respiratory drugs, ≥3 dispensations of oral corticosteroids (OCS), or ≥1 hospitalization for respiratory symptoms.A total of 115,489 infants had RW, corresponding to 8.2% of subjects in this age group. During follow-up, 68.7% of infants received inhaled corticosteroids, but only 1.8 U (unit) were dispensed over 6 months, suggesting discontinuous use. Control was mostly inadequate: 61.7% of subjects received OCS, 80.2% antibiotics, and 71.2% short-acting beta-agonists, and medical/paramedical visits were numerous, particularly for physiotherapy. Severe RW concerned 39.0% of the cohort; 32.8% and 11.7% of infants had repeated use of respiratory drugs and OCS, respectively, and 5.5% were hospitalized for respiratory symptoms.In this real-life nation-wide study, RW was common and infants had poor control and high MRU. Interventions are needed to support adequate use of controller therapy, and to improve medical care. PMID:27082618

  19. Calibrating a population-based job-exposure matrix using inspection measurements to estimate historical occupational exposure to lead for a population-based cohort in Shanghai, China

    PubMed Central

    Koh, Dong-Hee; Bhatti, Parveen; Coble, Joseph B.; Stewart, Patricia A; Lu, Wei; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Ji, Bu-Tian; Xue, Shouzheng; Locke, Sarah J.; Portengen, Lutzen; Yang, Gong; Chow, Wong-Ho; Gao, Yu-Tang; Rothman, Nathaniel; Vermeulen, Roel; Friesen, Melissa C.

    2012-01-01

    The epidemiologic evidence for the carcinogenicity of lead is inconsistent and requires improved exposure assessment to estimate risk. We evaluated historical occupational lead exposure for a population-based cohort of women (n=74,942) by calibrating a job-exposure matrix (JEM) with lead fume (n=20,084) and lead dust (n=5,383) measurements collected over four decades in Shanghai, China. Using mixed-effect models, we calibrated intensity JEM ratings to the measurements using fixed-effects terms for year and JEM rating. We developed job/industry-specific estimates from the random-effects terms for job and industry. The model estimates were applied to subjects’ jobs when the JEM probability rating was high for either job or industry; remaining jobs were considered unexposed. The models predicted that exposure increased monotonically with JEM intensity rating and decreased 20–50-fold over time. The cumulative calibrated JEM estimates and job/industry-specific estimates were highly correlated (Pearson correlation=0.79–0.84). Overall, 5% of the person-years and 8% of the women were exposed to lead fume; 2% of the person-years and 4% of the women were exposed to lead dust. The most common lead-exposed jobs were manufacturing electronic equipment. These historical lead estimates should enhance our ability to detect associations between lead exposure and cancer risk in future epidemiologic analyses. PMID:22910004

  20. Calibrating a population-based job-exposure matrix using inspection measurements to estimate historical occupational exposure to lead for a population-based cohort in Shanghai, China.

    PubMed

    Koh, Dong-Hee; Bhatti, Parveen; Coble, Joseph B; Stewart, Patricia A; Lu, Wei; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Ji, Bu-Tian; Xue, Shouzheng; Locke, Sarah J; Portengen, Lutzen; Yang, Gong; Chow, Wong-Ho; Gao, Yu-Tang; Rothman, Nathaniel; Vermeulen, Roel; Friesen, Melissa C

    2014-01-01

    The epidemiologic evidence for the carcinogenicity of lead is inconsistent and requires improved exposure assessment to estimate risk. We evaluated historical occupational lead exposure for a population-based cohort of women (n=74,942) by calibrating a job-exposure matrix (JEM) with lead fume (n=20,084) and lead dust (n=5383) measurements collected over four decades in Shanghai, China. Using mixed-effect models, we calibrated intensity JEM ratings to the measurements using fixed-effects terms for year and JEM rating. We developed job/industry-specific estimates from the random-effects terms for job and industry. The model estimates were applied to subjects' jobs when the JEM probability rating was high for either job or industry; remaining jobs were considered unexposed. The models predicted that exposure increased monotonically with JEM intensity rating and decreased 20-50-fold over time. The cumulative calibrated JEM estimates and job/industry-specific estimates were highly correlated (Pearson correlation=0.79-0.84). Overall, 5% of the person-years and 8% of the women were exposed to lead fume; 2% of the person-years and 4% of the women were exposed to lead dust. The most common lead-exposed jobs were manufacturing electronic equipment. These historical lead estimates should enhance our ability to detect associations between lead exposure and cancer risk in the future epidemiologic analyses. PMID:22910004

  1. Predicting the lifetime of superlubricity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Anle; He, Qichang; Xu, Zhiping

    2015-12-01

    The concept of superlubricity has recently called upon notable interest after the demonstration of ultralow friction between atomistically smooth surfaces in layered materials. However, the energy dissipation process conditioning the sustainability of a superlubric state has not yet been well understood. In this work, we address this issue by performing dynamic simulations based on both full-atom and reduced Frenkel-Kontorova models. We find that the center-of-mass momentum autocorrelation of a sliding object can be used as a statistical indicator of the state of superlubricity. Beyond a critical value of it, the sliding motion experiences a catastrophic breakdown with a dramatically high rate of energy dissipation, caused by the inter-vibrational-mode coupling. By tracking this warning signal, one can extract heat from modes other than the translation to avoid the catastrophe and extend the lifetime of superlubricity. This concept is demonstrated in double-walled carbon-nanotubes-based nanomechanical devices with the indicator-based feedback design implemented.

  2. Lifetime of a one-dimensional fermion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khodas, Maxim; Ussishkin, Iddo; Pustilnik, Michael; Kamenev, Alex; Glazman, Leonid

    2007-03-01

    Interaction between fermions in one dimension is usually accounted for within the exactly solvable Tomonaga-Luttinger model. The crucial simplification made in this model is the linearization of the fermionic spectrum. That simplification leads to an infinite lifetime of a fermion at the mass shell, i.e., the corresponding Green function G(,k) diverges at ɛ=ξk. We find that inclusion of the curvature of electron spectrum, ξk=vFk+k^2/2m, yields a finite decay rate of a fermion, 1/τ(ξk)θ(k)k^8/m^3; here for definiteness we consider right-moving particles, and k is measured from the Fermi wave vector. The found finite lifetime allows one to assess the limitations of the Luttinger liquid paradigm.

  3. Understanding the Association Between Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Current Anxiety: A Population-Based Study.

    PubMed

    Fuller-Thomson, Esme; Lacombe-Duncan, Ashley

    2016-10-01

    This study's objectives were to investigate the independent relationship between COPD and past-year Generalized Anxiety Disorder (GAD) in a population-based sample of adult Canadians and to identify significant correlates of GAD among COPD patients. A series of logistic regression analyses were conducted with a sample of 11,163 respondents aged 50+ from the 2012 Canadian Community Health Survey-Mental Health to determine the degree to which the direct association between COPD and GAD was attenuated by socio-demographic factors, social support, health behaviors, sleep problems, pain, functional limitations, and early childhood adversities. Additional analyses were completed using the sub-sample of those diagnosed with COPD (n = 746) to determine predictors of GAD. One in 17 (5.8%) of older individuals with COPD had past-year GAD, in comparison to 1.7% of those without (p < .001). The age-sex-race adjusted odds of GAD were four times higher for those with COPD compared to those without COPD (OR = 3.90, 95%CI: 2.64, 5.77). After full adjustment for 18 characteristics, these odds declined to 1.72 (95%CI: 1.10, 2.71). Factors associated with GAD among those with COPD include not having a confidant (OR = 7.85, 95%CI: 3.47, 17.75), exposure to parental domestic violence (OR = 5.63, 95% CI: 2.07, 15.34) and lifetime depressive disorders (OR = 3.59, 95% CI:1.61,7.98). Those with COPD have substantially higher odds of GAD even after most known risk factors for GAD are accounted for. These findings have implications for targeted outreach and screening, particularly for patients with pain and functional limitations. The importance of a multidisciplinary healthcare team is underscored by the multiple issues that may impact GAD among COPD patients. PMID:26830204

  4. "Lifetime Earnings" in Japan for the Class of 1955.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Evans, Robert, Jr.

    1984-01-01

    Japan's employment model has been that of "lifetime employment," especially for male college-educated workers. Under such a system, an individual becomes employed by a firm upon graduation and remains in its employ until retirement. (Author/SSH)

  5. Cyberbullying among Finnish adolescents – a population-based study

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Cyberbullying, threatening or harassing another via the internet or mobile phones, does not cause physically harm and thus the consequences are less visible. Little research has been performed on the occurrence of cyberbullying among adolescents or the perception of its seriousness. Only a few population-based studies have been published, none of which included research on the witnessing of cyberbullying. Here, we examined exposure to cyberbullying during the last year, and its frequency and perceived seriousness among 12 to 18-year-old adolescents in Finland. We studied four dimensions of cyberbullying: being a victim, bully, or both victim and bully of cyberbullying, and witnessing the cyberbullying of friends. Methods Self-administered questionnaires, including four questions on cyberbullying, were mailed to a representative sample of 12-, 14-, 16-, and 18-year-old Finns in 2009 (the Adolescent Health and Lifestyle Survey). The respondents could answer via the internet or paper questionnaire. Results The number of respondents was 5516 and the response rate was 56%. Girls more often than boys reported experiencing at least one dimension of cyberbullying during the last year. The proportion was highest among 14-year-olds and lowest among 18-year-olds of both sexes. Among girls, the most commonly encountered dimension was witnessing the cyberbullying of friends (16%); and being a victim was slightly more common than being a bully (11% vs. 9%). Among boys, an equal proportion, approximately 10%, had been a victim, a bully, or had witnessed cyberbullying. The proportion of bully-victims was 4%. Serious and disruptive cyberbullying was experienced by 2% of respondents and weekly cyberbullying by 1%; only 0.5% of respondents had been bullied weekly and considered bullying serious and disruptive. Conclusions Adolescents are commonly exposed to cyberbullying, but it is rarely frequent or considered serious or disruptive. Cyberbullying exposure differed between

  6. Familial risk of cerebral palsy: population based cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Wilcox, Allen J; Lie, Rolv T; Moster, Dag

    2014-01-01

    Objective To investigate risks of recurrence of cerebral palsy in family members with various degrees of relatedness to elucidate patterns of hereditability. Design Population based cohort study. Setting Data from the Medical Birth Registry of Norway, linked to the Norwegian social insurance scheme to identify cases of cerebral palsy and to databases of Statistics Norway to identify relatives. Participants 2 036 741 Norwegians born during 1967-2002, 3649 of whom had a diagnosis of cerebral palsy; 22 558 pairs of twins, 1 851 144 pairs of first degree relatives, 1 699 856 pairs of second degree relatives, and 5 165 968 pairs of third degree relatives were identified. Main outcome measure Cerebral palsy. Results If one twin had cerebral palsy, the relative risk of recurrence of cerebral palsy was 15.6 (95% confidence interval 9.8 to 25) in the other twin. In families with an affected singleton child, risk was increased 9.2 (6.4 to 13)-fold in a subsequent full sibling and 3.0 (1.1 to 8.6)-fold in a half sibling. Affected parents were also at increased risk of having an affected child (6.5 (1.6 to 26)-fold). No evidence was found of differential transmission through mothers or fathers, although the study had limited power to detect such differences. For people with an affected first cousin, only weak evidence existed for an increased risk (1.5 (0.9 to 2.7)-fold). Risks in siblings or cousins were independent of sex of the index case. After exclusion of preterm births (an important risk factor for cerebral palsy), familial risks remained and were often stronger. Conclusions People born into families in which someone already has cerebral palsy are themselves at elevated risk, depending on their degree of relatedness. Elevated risk may extend even to third degree relatives (first cousins). The patterns of risk suggest multifactorial inheritance, in which multiple genes interact with each other and with environmental factors. These data offer additional

  7. Automated analysis of multimodal fluorescence lifetime imaging and optical coherence tomography data for the diagnosis of oral cancer in the hamster cheek pouch model

    PubMed Central

    Pande, Paritosh; Shrestha, Sebina; Park, Jesung; Gimenez-Conti, Irma; Brandon, Jimi; Applegate, Brian E.; Jo, Javier A.

    2016-01-01

    It is known that the progression of oral cancer is accompanied by changes in both tissue biochemistry and morphology. A multimodal imaging approach combining functional and structural imaging modalities could therefore provide a more comprehensive prognosis of oral cancer. This idea forms the central theme of the current study, wherein this premise is examined in the context of a multimodal imaging system that combines fluorescence lifetime imaging (FLIM) and optical coherence tomography (OCT). Towards this end, in the first part of the present study, the diagnostic advantage obtained by using both fluorescence intensity and lifetime information is assessed. In the second part of the study, the diagnostic potential of FLIM-derived biochemical features is compared with that of OCT-derived morphological features. For an objective assessment, several quantitative biochemical and morphological features from FLIM and OCT data, respectively, were obtained using signal and image processing techniques. These features were subsequently used in a statistical classification framework to quantify the diagnostic potential of different features. The classification accuracy for combined FLIM and OCT features was estimated to be 87.4%, which was statistically higher than accuracy based on only FLIM (83.2%) or OCT (81.0%) features. Moreover, the complimentary information provided by FLIM and OCT features, resulted in highest sensitivity and specificity for the combined FLIM and OCT features for discriminating benign (88.2% sens., 92.0% spec.), pre-cancerous (81.5% sens., 96.0% spec.), and cancerous (90.1% sens., 92.0% spec.) classes. PMID:27231638

  8. Effects of Population Based Screening for Chlamydia Infections in The Netherlands Limited by Declining Participation Rates

    PubMed Central

    Schmid, Boris V.; Over, Eelco A. B.; van den Broek, Ingrid V. F.; Op de Coul, Eline L. M.; van Bergen, Jan E. A. M.; Fennema, Johan S. A.; Götz, Hannelore M.; Hoebe, Christian J. P. A.; de Wit, G. Ardine; van der Sande, Marianne A. B.; Kretzschmar, Mirjam E. E.

    2013-01-01

    Background A large trial to investigate the effectiveness of population based screening for chlamydia infections was conducted in the Netherlands in 2008–2012. The trial was register based and consisted of four rounds of screening of women and men in the age groups 16–29 years in three regions in the Netherlands. Data were collected on participation rates and positivity rates per round. A modeling study was conducted to project screening effects for various screening strategies into the future. Methods and Findings We used a stochastic network simulation model incorporating partnership formation and dissolution, aging and a sexual life course perspective. Trends in baseline rates of chlamydia testing and treatment were used to describe the epidemiological situation before the start of the screening program. Data on participation rates was used to describe screening uptake in rural and urban areas. Simulations were used to project the effectiveness of screening on chlamydia prevalence for a time period of 10 years. In addition, we tested alternative screening strategies, such as including only women, targeting different age groups, and biennial screening. Screening reduced prevalence by about 1% in the first two screening rounds and leveled off after that. Extrapolating observed participation rates into the future indicated very low participation in the long run. Alternative strategies only marginally changed the effectiveness of screening. Higher participation rates as originally foreseen in the program would have succeeded in reducing chlamydia prevalence to very low levels in the long run. Conclusions Decreasing participation rates over time profoundly impact the effectiveness of population based screening for chlamydia infections. Using data from several consecutive rounds of screening in a simulation model enabled us to assess the future effectiveness of screening on prevalence. If participation rates cannot be kept at a sufficient level, the effectiveness

  9. Estimating HIV Prevalence in Zimbabwe Using Population-Based Survey Data

    PubMed Central

    Chinomona, Amos; Mwambi, Henry Godwell

    2015-01-01

    Estimates of HIV prevalence computed using data obtained from sampling a subgroup of the national population may lack the representativeness of all the relevant domains of the population. These estimates are often computed on the assumption that HIV prevalence is uniform across all domains of the population. Use of appropriate statistical methods together with population-based survey data can enhance better estimation of national and subgroup level HIV prevalence and can provide improved explanations of the variation in HIV prevalence across different domains of the population. In this study we computed design-consistent estimates of HIV prevalence, and their respective 95% confidence intervals at both the national and subgroup levels. In addition, we provided a multivariable survey logistic regression model from a generalized linear modelling perspective for explaining the variation in HIV prevalence using demographic, socio-economic, socio-cultural and behavioural factors. Essentially, this study borrows from the proximate determinants conceptual framework which provides guiding principles upon which socio-economic and socio-cultural variables affect HIV prevalence through biological behavioural factors. We utilize the 2010–11 Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey (2010–11 ZDHS) data (which are population based) to estimate HIV prevalence in different categories of the population and for constructing the logistic regression model. It was established that HIV prevalence varies greatly with age, gender, marital status, place of residence, literacy level, belief on whether condom use can reduce the risk of contracting HIV and level of recent sexual activity whereas there was no marked variation in HIV prevalence with social status (measured using a wealth index), method of contraceptive and an individual’s level of education. PMID:26624280

  10. Estimating HIV Prevalence in Zimbabwe Using Population-Based Survey Data.

    PubMed

    Chinomona, Amos; Mwambi, Henry Godwell

    2015-01-01

    Estimates of HIV prevalence computed using data obtained from sampling a subgroup of the national population may lack the representativeness of all the relevant domains of the population. These estimates are often computed on the assumption that HIV prevalence is uniform across all domains of the population. Use of appropriate statistical methods together with population-based survey data can enhance better estimation of national and subgroup level HIV prevalence and can provide improved explanations of the variation in HIV prevalence across different domains of the population. In this study we computed design-consistent estimates of HIV prevalence, and their respective 95% confidence intervals at both the national and subgroup levels. In addition, we provided a multivariable survey logistic regression model from a generalized linear modelling perspective for explaining the variation in HIV prevalence using demographic, socio-economic, socio-cultural and behavioural factors. Essentially, this study borrows from the proximate determinants conceptual framework which provides guiding principles upon which socio-economic and socio-cultural variables affect HIV prevalence through biological behavioural factors. We utilize the 2010-11 Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey (2010-11 ZDHS) data (which are population based) to estimate HIV prevalence in different categories of the population and for constructing the logistic regression model. It was established that HIV prevalence varies greatly with age, gender, marital status, place of residence, literacy level, belief on whether condom use can reduce the risk of contracting HIV and level of recent sexual activity whereas there was no marked variation in HIV prevalence with social status (measured using a wealth index), method of contraceptive and an individual's level of education. PMID:26624280