Breast and ovarian cancer risks to carriers of the BRCA1 5382insC and 185delAG and BRCA2 6174delT mutations: a combined analysis of 22 population based studies

PubMed Central

Antoniou, A; Pharoah, P; Narod, S; Risch, H; Eyfjord, J; Hopper, J; Olsson, H; Johannsson, O; Borg, A; Pasini, B; Radice, P; Manoukian, S; Eccles, D; Tang, N; Olah, E; Anton-Culver, H; Warner, E; Lubinski, J; Gronwald, J; Gorski, B; Tulinius, H; Thorlacius, S; Eerola, H; Nevanlinna, H; Syrjakoski, K; Kallioniemi, O; Thompson, D; Evans, C; Peto, J; Lalloo, F; Evans, D; Easton, D

2005-01-01

A recent report estimated the breast cancer risks in carriers of the three Ashkenazi founder mutations to be higher than previously published estimates derived from population based studies. In an attempt to confirm this, the breast and ovarian cancer risks associated with the three Ashkenazi founder mutations were estimated using families included in a previous meta-analysis of populatrion based studies. The estimated breast cancer risks for each of the founder BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations were similar to the corresponding estimates based on all BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations in the meta-analysis. These estimates appear to be consistent with the observed prevalence of the mutations in the Ashkenazi Jewish population. PMID:15994883

An individual-based model for population viability analysis of humpback chub in Grand Canyon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pine, William Pine; Healy, Brian; Smith, Emily Omana; Trammell, Melissa; Speas, Dave; Valdez, Rich; Yard, Mike; Walters, Carl; Ahrens, Rob; Vanhaverbeke, Randy; Stone, Dennis; Wilson, Wade

2013-01-01

We developed an individual-based population viability analysis model (females only) for evaluating risk to populations from catastrophic events or conservation and research actions. This model tracks attributes (size, weight, viability, etc.) for individual fish through time and then compiles this information to assess the extinction risk of the population across large numbers of simulation trials. Using a case history for the Little Colorado River population of Humpback Chub Gila cypha in Grand Canyon, Arizona, we assessed extinction risk and resiliency to a catastrophic event for this population and then assessed a series of conservation actions related to removing specific numbers of Humpback Chub at different sizes for conservation purposes, such as translocating individuals to establish other spawning populations or hatchery refuge development. Our results suggested that the Little Colorado River population is generally resilient to a single catastrophic event and also to removals of larvae and juveniles for conservation purposes, including translocations to establish new populations. Our results also suggested that translocation success is dependent on similar survival rates in receiving and donor streams and low emigration rates from recipient streams. In addition, translocating either large numbers of larvae or small numbers of large juveniles has generally an equal likelihood of successful population establishment at similar extinction risk levels to the Little Colorado River donor population. Our model created a transparent platform to consider extinction risk to populations from catastrophe or conservation actions and should prove useful to managers assessing these risks for endangered species such as Humpback Chub.

Migraine and risk of cardiovascular diseases: Danish population based matched cohort study

PubMed Central

Szépligeti, Szimonetta Komjáthiné; Holland-Bill, Louise; Ehrenstein, Vera; Horváth-Puhó, Erzsébet; Henderson, Victor W; Sørensen, Henrik Toft

2018-01-01

Abstract Objective To examine the risks of myocardial infarction, stroke (ischaemic and haemorrhagic), peripheral artery disease, venous thromboembolism, atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter, and heart failure in patients with migraine and in a general population comparison cohort. Design Nationwide, population based cohort study. Setting All Danish hospitals and hospital outpatient clinics from 1995 to 2013. Participants 51 032 patients with migraine and 510 320 people from the general population matched on age, sex, and calendar year. Main outcome measures Comorbidity adjusted hazard ratios of cardiovascular outcomes based on Cox regression analysis. Results Higher absolute risks were observed among patients with incident migraine than in the general population across most outcomes and follow-up periods. After 19 years of follow-up, the cumulative incidences per 1000 people for the migraine cohort compared with the general population were 25 v 17 for myocardial infarction, 45 v 25 for ischaemic stroke, 11 v 6 for haemorrhagic stroke, 13 v 11 for peripheral artery disease, 27 v 18 for venous thromboembolism, 47 v 34 for atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter, and 19 v 18 for heart failure. Correspondingly, migraine was positively associated with myocardial infarction (adjusted hazard ratio 1.49, 95% confidence interval 1.36 to 1.64), ischaemic stroke (2.26, 2.11 to 2.41), and haemorrhagic stroke (1.94, 1.68 to 2.23), as well as venous thromboembolism (1.59, 1.45 to 1.74) and atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter (1.25, 1.16 to 1.36). No meaningful association was found with peripheral artery disease (adjusted hazard ratio 1.12, 0.96 to 1.30) or heart failure (1.04, 0.93 to 1.16). The associations, particularly for stroke outcomes, were stronger during the short term (0-1 years) after diagnosis than the long term (up to 19 years), in patients with aura than in those without aura, and in women than in men. In a subcohort of patients, the associations persisted

Risk analysis based on hazards interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossi, Lauro; Rudari, Roberto; Trasforini, Eva; De Angeli, Silvia; Becker, Joost

2017-04-01

Despite an increasing need for open, transparent, and credible multi-hazard risk assessment methods, models, and tools, the availability of comprehensive risk information needed to inform disaster risk reduction is limited, and the level of interaction across hazards is not systematically analysed. Risk assessment methodologies for different hazards often produce risk metrics that are not comparable. Hazard interactions (consecutive occurrence two or more different events) are generally neglected, resulting in strongly underestimated risk assessment in the most exposed areas. This study presents cases of interaction between different hazards, showing how subsidence can affect coastal and river flood risk (Jakarta and Bandung, Indonesia) or how flood risk is modified after a seismic event (Italy). The analysis of well documented real study cases, based on a combination between Earth Observation and in-situ data, would serve as basis the formalisation of a multi-hazard methodology, identifying gaps and research frontiers. Multi-hazard risk analysis is performed through the RASOR platform (Rapid Analysis and Spatialisation Of Risk). A scenario-driven query system allow users to simulate future scenarios based on existing and assumed conditions, to compare with historical scenarios, and to model multi-hazard risk both before and during an event (www.rasor.eu).

Genocide Exposure and Subsequent Suicide Risk: A Population-Based Study

PubMed Central

Levine, Stephen Z.; Levav, Itzhak; Yoffe, Rinat; Becher, Yifat; Pugachova, Inna

2016-01-01

The association between periods of genocide-related exposures and suicide risk remains unknown. Our study tests that association using a national population-based study design. The source population comprised of all persons born during1922-1945 in Nazi-occupied or dominated European nations, that immigrated to Israel by 1965, were identified in the Population Register (N = 220,665), and followed up for suicide to 2014, totaling 16,953,602 person-years. The population was disaggregated to compare a trauma gradient among groups that immigrated before (indirect, n = 20,612, 9%); during (partial direct, n = 17,037, 8%); or after (full direct, n = 183,016, 83%) exposure to the Nazi era. Also, the direct exposure groups were examined regarding pre- or post-natal exposure periods. Cox regression models were used to compute Hazard Ratios (HR) of suicide risk to compare the exposure groups, adjusting for confounding by gender, residential SES and history of psychiatric hospitalization. In the total population, only the partial direct exposure subgroup was at greater risk compared to the indirect exposure group (HR = 1.73, 95% CI, 1.10, 2.73; P < .05). That effect replicated in six sensitivity analyses. In addition, sensitivity analyses showed that exposure at ages 13 plus among females, and follow-up by years since immigration were associated with a greater risk; whereas in utero exposure among persons with no psychiatric hospitalization and early postnatal exposure among males were at a reduced risk. Tentative mechanisms impute biopsychosocial vulnerability and natural selection during early critical periods among males, and feelings of guilt and entrapment or defeat among females. PMID:26901411

Population-based risk for complications after transthoracic needle lung biopsy of a pulmonary nodule: an analysis of discharge records.

PubMed

Wiener, Renda Soylemez; Schwartz, Lisa M; Woloshin, Steven; Welch, H Gilbert

2011-08-02

Because pulmonary nodules are found in up to 25% of patients undergoing computed tomography of the chest, the question of whether to perform biopsy is becoming increasingly common. Data on complications after transthoracic needle lung biopsy are limited to case series from selected institutions. To determine population-based estimates of risks for complications after transthoracic needle biopsy of a pulmonary nodule. Cross-sectional analysis. The 2006 State Ambulatory Surgery Databases and State Inpatient Databases for California, Florida, Michigan, and New York from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project. 15 865 adults who had transthoracic needle biopsy of a pulmonary nodule. Percentage of biopsies complicated by hemorrhage, any pneumothorax, or pneumothorax requiring a chest tube, and adjusted odds ratios for these complications associated with various biopsy characteristics, calculated by using multivariate, population-averaged generalized estimating equations. Although hemorrhage was rare, complicating 1.0% (95% CI, 0.9% to 1.2%) of biopsies, 17.8% (CI, 11.8% to 23.8%) of patients with hemorrhage required a blood transfusion. In contrast, the risk for any pneumothorax was 15.0% (CI, 14.0% to 16.0%), and 6.6% (CI, 6.0% to 7.2%) of all biopsies resulted in pneumothorax requiring a chest tube. Compared with patients without complications, those who experienced hemorrhage or pneumothorax requiring a chest tube had longer lengths of stay (P < 0.001) and were more likely to develop respiratory failure requiring mechanical ventilation (P = 0.020). Patients aged 60 to 69 years (as opposed to younger or older patients), smokers, and those with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease had higher risk for complications. Estimated risks may be inaccurate if coding of complications is incomplete. The analyzed databases contain little clinical detail (such as information on nodule characteristics or biopsy pathology) and cannot indicate whether performing the biopsy

Cardiovascular Disease Risk in a Large, Population-Based Cohort of Breast Cancer Survivors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boekel, Naomi B.; Schaapveld, Michael; Gietema, Jourik A.

Purpose: To conduct a large, population-based study on cardiovascular disease (CVD) in breast cancer (BC) survivors treated in 1989 or later. Methods and Materials: A large, population-based cohort comprising 70,230 surgically treated stage I to III BC patients diagnosed before age 75 years between 1989 and 2005 was linked with population-based registries for CVD. Cardiovascular disease risks were compared with the general population, and within the cohort using competing risk analyses. Results: Compared with the general Dutch population, BC patients had a slightly lower CVD mortality risk (standardized mortality ratio 0.92, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.88-0.97). Only death due to valvular heartmore » disease was more frequent (standardized mortality ratio 1.28, 95% CI 1.08-1.52). Left-sided radiation therapy after mastectomy increased the risk of any cardiovascular event compared with both surgery alone (subdistribution hazard ratio (sHR) 1.23, 95% CI 1.11-1.36) and right-sided radiation therapy (sHR 1.19, 95% CI 1.04-1.36). Radiation-associated risks were found for not only ischemic heart disease, but also for valvular heart disease and congestive heart failure (CHF). Risks were more pronounced in patients aged <50 years at BC diagnosis (sHR 1.48, 95% CI 1.07-2.04 for left- vs right-sided radiation therapy after mastectomy). Left- versus right-sided radiation therapy after wide local excision did not increase the risk of all CVD combined, yet an increased ischemic heart disease risk was found (sHR 1.14, 95% CI 1.01-1.28). Analyses including detailed radiation therapy information showed an increased CVD risk for left-sided chest wall irradiation alone, left-sided breast irradiation alone, and internal mammary chain field irradiation, all compared with right-sided breast irradiation alone. Compared with patients not treated with chemotherapy, chemotherapy used ≥1997 (ie, anthracyline-based chemotherapy) increased the risk of CHF (sHR 1.35, 95% CI 1

Injury risk functions based on population-based finite element model responses: Application to femurs under dynamic three-point bending.

PubMed

Park, Gwansik; Forman, Jason; Kim, Taewung; Panzer, Matthew B; Crandall, Jeff R

2018-02-28

The goal of this study was to explore a framework for developing injury risk functions (IRFs) in a bottom-up approach based on responses of parametrically variable finite element (FE) models representing exemplar populations. First, a parametric femur modeling tool was developed and validated using a subject-specific (SS)-FE modeling approach. Second, principal component analysis and regression were used to identify parametric geometric descriptors of the human femur and the distribution of those factors for 3 target occupant sizes (5th, 50th, and 95th percentile males). Third, distributions of material parameters of cortical bone were obtained from the literature for 3 target occupant ages (25, 50, and 75 years) using regression analysis. A Monte Carlo method was then implemented to generate populations of FE models of the femur for target occupants, using a parametric femur modeling tool. Simulations were conducted with each of these models under 3-point dynamic bending. Finally, model-based IRFs were developed using logistic regression analysis, based on the moment at fracture observed in the FE simulation. In total, 100 femur FE models incorporating the variation in the population of interest were generated, and 500,000 moments at fracture were observed (applying 5,000 ultimate strains for each synthesized 100 femur FE models) for each target occupant characteristics. Using the proposed framework on this study, the model-based IRFs for 3 target male occupant sizes (5th, 50th, and 95th percentiles) and ages (25, 50, and 75 years) were developed. The model-based IRF was located in the 95% confidence interval of the test-based IRF for the range of 15 to 70% injury risks. The 95% confidence interval of the developed IRF was almost in line with the mean curve due to a large number of data points. The framework proposed in this study would be beneficial for developing the IRFs in a bottom-up manner, whose range of variabilities is informed by the population-based

Predicting tuberculosis risk in the foreign-born population of British Columbia, Canada: study protocol for a retrospective population-based cohort study

PubMed Central

Ronald, Lisa A; Campbell, Jonathon R; Balshaw, Robert F; Roth, David Z; Romanowski, Kamila; Marra, Fawziah; Cook, Victoria J; Johnston, James C

2016-01-01

Introduction Improved understanding of risk factors for developing active tuberculosis (TB) will better inform decisions about diagnostic testing and treatment for latent TB infection (LTBI) in migrant populations in low-incidence regions. We aim to examine TB risk factors among the foreign-born population in British Columbia (BC), Canada, and to create and validate a clinically relevant multivariate risk score to predict active TB. Methods and analysis This retrospective population-based cohort study will include all foreign-born individuals who acquired permanent resident status in Canada between 1 January 1985 and 31 December 2013 and acquired healthcare coverage in BC at any point during this period. Multiple administrative databases and disease registries will be linked, including a National Immigration Database, BC Provincial Health Insurance Registration, physician billings, hospitalisations, drugs dispensed from community pharmacies, vital statistics, HIV testing and notifications, cancer, chronic kidney disease and dialysis treatment, and all TB and LTBI testing and treatment data in BC. Extended proportional hazards regression will be used to estimate risk factors for TB and to create a prognostic TB risk score. Ethics and dissemination Ethical approval for this study has been obtained from the University of British Columbia Clinical Ethics Review Board. Once completed, study findings will be presented at conferences and published in peer-reviewed journals. An online TB risk score calculator will also be created. PMID:27888179

Real-time web-based assessment of total population risk of future emergency department utilization: statewide prospective active case finding study.

PubMed

Hu, Zhongkai; Jin, Bo; Shin, Andrew Y; Zhu, Chunqing; Zhao, Yifan; Hao, Shiying; Zheng, Le; Fu, Changlin; Wen, Qiaojun; Ji, Jun; Li, Zhen; Wang, Yong; Zheng, Xiaolin; Dai, Dorothy; Culver, Devore S; Alfreds, Shaun T; Rogow, Todd; Stearns, Frank; Sylvester, Karl G; Widen, Eric; Ling, Xuefeng B

2015-01-13

An easily accessible real-time Web-based utility to assess patient risks of future emergency department (ED) visits can help the health care provider guide the allocation of resources to better manage higher-risk patient populations and thereby reduce unnecessary use of EDs. Our main objective was to develop a Health Information Exchange-based, next 6-month ED risk surveillance system in the state of Maine. Data on electronic medical record (EMR) encounters integrated by HealthInfoNet (HIN), Maine's Health Information Exchange, were used to develop the Web-based surveillance system for a population ED future 6-month risk prediction. To model, a retrospective cohort of 829,641 patients with comprehensive clinical histories from January 1 to December 31, 2012 was used for training and then tested with a prospective cohort of 875,979 patients from July 1, 2012, to June 30, 2013. The multivariate statistical analysis identified 101 variables predictive of future defined 6-month risk of ED visit: 4 age groups, history of 8 different encounter types, history of 17 primary and 8 secondary diagnoses, 8 specific chronic diseases, 28 laboratory test results, history of 3 radiographic tests, and history of 25 outpatient prescription medications. The c-statistics for the retrospective and prospective cohorts were 0.739 and 0.732 respectively. Integration of our method into the HIN secure statewide data system in real time prospectively validated its performance. Cluster analysis in both the retrospective and prospective analyses revealed discrete subpopulations of high-risk patients, grouped around multiple "anchoring" demographics and chronic conditions. With the Web-based population risk-monitoring enterprise dashboards, the effectiveness of the active case finding algorithm has been validated by clinicians and caregivers in Maine. The active case finding model and associated real-time Web-based app were designed to track the evolving nature of total population risk, in a

Heterogeneity in risk of prostate cancer: A Swedish population-based cohort study of competing risks and type 2 diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Häggström, Christel; Van Hemelrijck, Mieke; Garmo, Hans; Robinson, David; Stattin, Pär; Rowley, Mark; Coolen, Anthony C C; Holmberg, Lars

2018-05-09

Most previous studies of prostate cancer have not taken into account that men in the studied populations are also at risk of competing event, and that these men may have different susceptibility to prostate cancer risk. The aim of this study was to investigate heterogeneity in risk of prostate cancer, using a recently developed latent class regression method for competing risks. We further aimed to elucidate the association between type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and prostate cancer risk, and to compare the results with conventional methods for survival analysis. We analysed the risk of prostate cancer in 126,482 men from the comparison cohort of the Prostate Cancer Data base Sweden (PCBaSe) 3.0. During a mean follow-up of 6 years 6,036 men were diagnosed with prostate cancer and 22,393 men died. We detected heterogeneity in risk of prostate cancer with two distinct latent classes in the study population. The smaller class included 9% of the study population in which men had a higher risk of prostate cancer and the risk was stronger associated with class membership than any of the covariates included in the study. Moreover, we found no association between T2DM and risk of prostate cancer after removal of the effect of informative censoring due to competing risks. The recently developed latent class for competing risks method could be used to provide new insights in precision medicine with the target to classify individuals regarding different susceptibility to a particular disease, reaction to a risk factor or response to treatment. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. © 2018 UICC.

An obesity/cardiometabolic risk reduction disease management program: a population-based approach.

PubMed

Villagra, Victor G

2009-04-01

Obesity is a critical health concern that has captured the attention of public and private healthcare payers who are interested in controlling costs and mitigating the long-term economic consequences of the obesity epidemic. Population-based approaches to obesity management have been proposed that take advantage of a chronic care model (CCM), including patient self-care, the use of community-based resources, and the realization of care continuity through ongoing communications with patients, information technology, and public policy changes. Payer-sponsored disease management programs represent an important conduit to delivering population-based care founded on similar CCM concepts. Disease management is founded on population-based disease identification, evidence-based care protocols, and collaborative practices between clinicians. While substantial clinician training, technology infrastructure commitments, and financial support at the payer level will be needed for the success of disease management programs in obesity and cardiometabolic risk reduction, these barriers can be overcome with the proper commitment. Disease management programs represent an important tool to combat the growing societal risks of overweight and obesity.

Risk factors for operated carpal tunnel syndrome: a multicenter population-based case-control study

PubMed Central

Mattioli, Stefano; Baldasseroni, Alberto; Bovenzi, Massimo; Curti, Stefania; Cooke, Robin MT; Campo, Giuseppe; Barbieri, Pietro G; Ghersi, Rinaldo; Broccoli, Marco; Cancellieri, Maria Pia; Colao, Anna Maria; dell'Omo, Marco; Fateh-Moghadam, Pirous; Franceschini, Flavia; Fucksia, Serenella; Galli, Paolo; Gobba, Fabriziomaria; Lucchini, Roberto; Mandes, Anna; Marras, Teresa; Sgarrella, Carla; Borghesi, Stefano; Fierro, Mauro; Zanardi, Francesca; Mancini, Gianpiero; Violante, Francesco S

2009-01-01

Background Carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) is a socially and economically relevant disease caused by compression or entrapment of the median nerve within the carpal tunnel. This population-based case-control study aims to investigate occupational/non-occupational risk factors for surgically treated CTS. Methods Cases (n = 220) aged 18-65 years were randomly drawn from 13 administrative databases of citizens who were surgically treated with carpal tunnel release during 2001. Controls (n = 356) were randomly sampled from National Health Service registry records and were frequency matched by age-gender-specific CTS hospitalization rates. Results At multivariate analysis, risk factors were blue-collar/housewife status, BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2, sibling history of CTS and coexistence of trigger finger. Being relatively tall (cut-offs based on tertiles: women ≥165 cm; men ≥175 cm) was associated with lower risk. Blue-collar work was a moderate/strong risk factor in both sexes. Raised risks were apparent for combinations of biomechanical risk factors that included frequent repetitivity and sustained force. Conclusion This study strongly underlines the relevance of biomechanical exposures in both non-industrial and industrial work as risk factors for surgically treated CTS. PMID:19758429

Customized vs population-based growth charts to identify neonates at risk of adverse outcome: systematic review and Bayesian meta-analysis of observational studies.

PubMed

Chiossi, G; Pedroza, C; Costantine, M M; Truong, V T T; Gargano, G; Saade, G R

2017-08-01

To compare the effectiveness of customized vs population-based growth charts for the prediction of adverse pregnancy outcomes. MEDLINE, ClinicalTrials.gov and The Cochrane Library were searched up to 31 May 2016 to identify interventional and observational studies comparing adverse outcomes among large- (LGA) and small- (SGA) for-gestational-age neonates, when classified according to customized vs population-based growth charts. Perinatal mortality and admission to the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) of both SGA and LGA neonates, intrauterine fetal demise (IUFD) and neonatal mortality of SGA neonates, and neonatal shoulder dystocia and hypoglycemia as well as maternal third- and fourth-degree perineal lacerations in LGA pregnancies were evaluated. The electronic search identified 237 records that were examined based on title and abstract, of which 27 full-text articles were examined for eligibility. After excluding seven articles, 20 observational studies were included in a Bayesian meta-analysis. Neonates classified as SGA according to customized growth charts had higher risks of IUFD (odds ratio (OR), 7.8 (95% CI, 4.2-12.3)), neonatal death (OR, 3.5 (95% CI, 1.1-8.0)), perinatal death (OR, 5.8 (95% CI, 3.8-7.8)) and NICU admission (OR, 3.6 (95% CI, 2.0-5.5)) than did non-SGA cases. Neonates classified as SGA according to population-based growth charts also had increased risk for adverse outcomes, albeit the point estimates of the pooled ORs were smaller: IUFD (OR, 3.3 (95% CI, 1.9-5.0)), neonatal death (OR, 2.9 (95% CI, 1.2-4.5)), perinatal death (OR, 4.0 (95% CI, 2.8-5.1)) and NICU admission (OR, 2.4 (95% CI, 1.7-3.2)). For LGA vs non-LGA, there were no differences in pooled ORs for perinatal death, NICU admission, hypoglycemia and maternal third- and fourth-degree perineal lacerations when classified according to either the customized or the population-based approach. In contrast, both approaches indicated that LGA neonates are at increased risk for

Migraine and risk of cardiovascular diseases: Danish population based matched cohort study.

PubMed

Adelborg, Kasper; Szépligeti, Szimonetta Komjáthiné; Holland-Bill, Louise; Ehrenstein, Vera; Horváth-Puhó, Erzsébet; Henderson, Victor W; Sørensen, Henrik Toft

2018-01-31

To examine the risks of myocardial infarction, stroke (ischaemic and haemorrhagic), peripheral artery disease, venous thromboembolism, atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter, and heart failure in patients with migraine and in a general population comparison cohort. Nationwide, population based cohort study. All Danish hospitals and hospital outpatient clinics from 1995 to 2013. 51 032 patients with migraine and 510 320 people from the general population matched on age, sex, and calendar year. Comorbidity adjusted hazard ratios of cardiovascular outcomes based on Cox regression analysis. Higher absolute risks were observed among patients with incident migraine than in the general population across most outcomes and follow-up periods. After 19 years of follow-up, the cumulative incidences per 1000 people for the migraine cohort compared with the general population were 25 v 17 for myocardial infarction, 45 v 25 for ischaemic stroke, 11 v 6 for haemorrhagic stroke, 13 v 11 for peripheral artery disease, 27 v 18 for venous thromboembolism, 47 v 34 for atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter, and 19 v 18 for heart failure. Correspondingly, migraine was positively associated with myocardial infarction (adjusted hazard ratio 1.49, 95% confidence interval 1.36 to 1.64), ischaemic stroke (2.26, 2.11 to 2.41), and haemorrhagic stroke (1.94, 1.68 to 2.23), as well as venous thromboembolism (1.59, 1.45 to 1.74) and atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter (1.25, 1.16 to 1.36). No meaningful association was found with peripheral artery disease (adjusted hazard ratio 1.12, 0.96 to 1.30) or heart failure (1.04, 0.93 to 1.16). The associations, particularly for stroke outcomes, were stronger during the short term (0-1 years) after diagnosis than the long term (up to 19 years), in patients with aura than in those without aura, and in women than in men. In a subcohort of patients, the associations persisted after additional multivariable adjustment for body mass index and smoking

Assessing population exposure for landslide risk analysis using dasymetric cartography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, Ricardo A. C.; Oliveira, Sérgio C.; Zêzere, José L.

2016-12-01

Assessing the number and locations of exposed people is a crucial step in landslide risk management and emergency planning. The available population statistical data frequently have insufficient detail for an accurate assessment of potentially exposed people to hazardous events, mainly when they occur at the local scale, such as with landslides. The present study aims to apply dasymetric cartography to improving population spatial resolution and to assess the potentially exposed population. An additional objective is to compare the results with those obtained with a more common approach that uses, as spatial units, basic census units, which are the best spatial data disaggregation and detailed information available for regional studies in Portugal. Considering the Portuguese census data and a layer of residential building footprint, which was used as ancillary information, the number of exposed inhabitants differs significantly according to the approach used. When the census unit approach is used, considering the three highest landslide susceptible classes, the number of exposed inhabitants is in general overestimated. Despite the associated uncertainties of a general cost-benefit analysis, the presented methodology seems to be a reliable approach for gaining a first approximation of a more detailed estimation of exposed people. The approach based on dasymetric cartography allows the spatial resolution of population over large areas to be increased and enables the use of detailed landslide susceptibility maps, which are valuable for improving the exposed population assessment.

Higher risk for cervical herniated intervertebral disc in physicians: A retrospective nationwide population-based cohort study with claims analysis.

PubMed

Liu, Cheng; Huang, Chien-Cheng; Hsu, Chien-Chin; Lin, Hung-Jung; Guo, How-Ran; Su, Shih-Bin; Wang, Jhi-Joung; Weng, Shih-Feng

2016-10-01

There is no study about cervical herniated intervertebral disc (cervical HIVD) in physicians in the literature; therefore, we conceived a retrospective nationwide, population-based cohort study to elucidate the topic. We identified 26,038 physicians, 33,057 non-physician healthcare providers (HCPs), and identical numbers of non-HCP references (i.e., general population). All cohorts matched a 1:1 ratio with age and gender, and each were chosen from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD). We compared cervical HIVD risk among physicians, nonphysician HCPs, and non-HCP references and performed a follow-up between 2007 and 2011. We also made comparisons among physician specialists. Both physicians and nonphysician HCPs had higher cervical HIVD risk than non-HCP references (odds ratio [OR]: 1.356; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.162-1.582; OR: 1.383; 95% CI: 1.191-1.605, respectively). There was no significant difference of cervical HIVD risk between physicians and nonphysician HCPs. In the comparison among physician specialists, orthopedists had a higher cervical HIVD risk than other specialists, but the difference was not statistically significant (adjusted OR: 1.547; 95% CI: 0.782-3.061). Physicians are at higher cervical HIVD risk than the general population. Because unknown confounders could exist, further prospective studies are needed to identify possible causation.

Influence of arterial hypertension, type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular risk factors on ALS outcome: a population-based study.

PubMed

Moglia, Cristina; Calvo, Andrea; Canosa, Antonio; Bertuzzo, Davide; Cugnasco, Paolo; Solero, Luca; Grassano, Maurizio; Bersano, Enrica; Cammarosano, Stefania; Manera, Umberto; Pisano, Fabrizio; Mazzini, Letizia; Dalla Vecchia, Laura A; Mora, Gabriele; Chiò, Adriano

2017-11-01

To assess the prognostic influence of pre-morbid type 2 diabetes mellitus, arterial hypertension and cardiovascular (CV) risk profile on ALS phenotype and outcome in a population-based cohort of Italian patients. A total of 650 ALS patients from the Piemonte/Valle d'Aosta Register for ALS, incident in the 2007-2011 period, were recruited. Information about premorbid presence of type 2 diabetes mellitus, arterial hypertension was collected at the time of diagnosis. Patients' CV risk profile was calculated according to the Joint British Societies' guidelines on prevention of cardiovascular disease in clinical practice (JBS2). At the univariate analysis, the presence of pre-morbid arterial hypertension was associated with a higher age at onset of ALS and a shorter survival, and patients with a high CV risk profile had a worse prognosis than those with a low CV risk profile. The Cox multivariable analysis did not confirm such findings. Type 2 diabetes mellitus did not modify either the phenotype or the prognosis of ALS patients. This study performed on a large population-based cohort of ALS patients has demonstrated that arterial hypertension, type 2 diabetes and CV risk factors, calculated using the Framingham equation, do not influence ALS phenotype and prognosis.

Risk factors for financial hardship in patients receiving adjuvant chemotherapy for colon cancer: a population-based exploratory analysis.

PubMed

Shankaran, Veena; Jolly, Sanjay; Blough, David; Ramsey, Scott D

2012-05-10

Characteristics that predispose patients to financial hardship during cancer treatment are poorly understood. We therefore conducted a population-based exploratory analysis of potential factors associated with financial hardship and treatment nonadherence during and following adjuvant chemotherapy for colon cancer. Patients diagnosed with stage III colon cancer between 2008 and 2010 were identified from a population-based cancer registry representing 13 counties in Washington state. Patients were asked to complete a comprehensive survey on treatment-related costs. Patients were considered to have experienced financial hardship if they accrued debt, sold or refinanced their home, borrowed money from friends or family, or experienced a 20% or greater decline in their annual income as a result of treatment-related expenses. Logistic regression analysis was used to investigate factors associated with financial hardship and treatment nonadherence. A total of 284 responses were obtained from 555 eligible patients (response rate, 51.2%). Nearly all patients in the final sample were insured during treatment. In this sample, 38% of patients reported one or more financial hardships as a result of treatment. The factors most closely associated with treatment-related financial hardship were younger age and lower annual household income. Younger age, lower income, and unemployment or disability (which occurred in most instances following diagnosis) were most closely associated with treatment nonadherence. A significant proportion of patients undergoing adjuvant chemotherapy for stage III colon cancer may experience financial hardship, despite having health insurance coverage. Interventions to help at-risk patients early on during therapy may prevent long-term financial adverse effects.

The TSH levels and risk of hypothyroidism: Results from a population based prospective cohort study in an Iranian adult's population.

PubMed

Aminorroaya, Ashraf; Meamar, Rokhsareh; Amini, Massoud; Feizi, Awat; Nasri, Maryam; Tabatabaei, Azamosadat; Faghihimani, Elham

2017-06-01

The aim of current study was to assess the relationship between serum TSH levels and hypothyroidism risk in the euthyroid population. In a population-based cohort study, a total of 615 individuals with a normal baseline TSH, from of total population (n=2254) in 2006, were followed up for 6years. TSH, total T4, thyroid peroxidase antibody (TPOAb), and thyroglobulin antibody (TgAb) were measured. The relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (95%CI) were calculated based on logistic regression. The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis along with area under the curve (AUC) was used to prediction of future hypothyroidism. TSH level in 2006 was a significant predictor for overt hypothyroidism, in the total population (RR=3.5) and female (RR=1.37) (all, P value<0.05). A cutoff value of TSH at 2.05mIU/L [AUC: (CI95 %), 0.68 (0.44-0.92; P=0.05)] was obtained for differentiating the patients with overt hypothyroidism from euthyroid. However, this cut off was not observed when we included only negative TPO and TgAbs people in 2006. The RR of hypothyroidism increased gradually when TSH level increased from 2.06-3.6mIU/L to >3.6mIU/L in the total population and both sexes. In women, the risk of overt hypothyroidism was significantly higher in subjects with TSH above 3.6 than those subject with THS levels≤2.05 [RR: (CI95 %), 20.57(2.-207.04), P value<0.05]. A cutoff value of TSH at 2.05mIU/L could predict the development of overt hypothyroidism in future. However, it was not applicable for people with negative TPOAb and negative TgAb. Copyright © 2016 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Extreme umbilical cord lengths, cord knot and entanglement: Risk factors and risk of adverse outcomes, a population-based study

PubMed Central

Kessler, Jörg

2018-01-01

Objectives To determine risk factors for short and long umbilical cord, entanglement and knot. Explore their associated risks of adverse maternal and perinatal outcome, including risk of recurrence in a subsequent pregnancy. To provide population based gestational age and sex and parity specific reference ranges for cord length. Design Population based registry study. Setting Medical Birth Registry of Norway 1999–2013. Population All singleton births (gestational age>22weeks<45 weeks) (n = 856 300). Methods Descriptive statistics and odds ratios of risk factors for extreme cord length and adverse outcomes based on logistic regression adjusted for confounders. Main outcome measures Short or long cord (<10th or >90th percentile), cord knot and entanglement, adverse pregnancy outcomes including perinatal and intrauterine death. Results Increasing parity, maternal height and body mass index, and diabetes were associated with increased risk of a long cord. Large placental and birth weight, and fetal male sex were factors for a long cord, which again was associated with a doubled risk of intrauterine and perinatal death, and increased risk of adverse neonatal outcome. Anomalous cord insertion, female sex, and a small placenta were associated with a short cord, which was associated with increased risk of fetal malformations, placental complications, caesarean delivery, non-cephalic presentation, perinatal and intrauterine death. At term, cord knot was associated with a quadrupled risk of perinatal death. The combination of a cord knot and entanglement had a more than additive effect to the association to perinatal death. There was a more than doubled risk of recurrence of a long or short cord, knot and entanglement in a subsequent pregnancy of the same woman. Conclusion Cord length is influenced both by maternal and fetal factors, and there is increased risk of recurrence. Extreme cord length, entanglement and cord knot are associated with increased risk of adverse

Population viability analysis for endangered Roanoke logperch

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roberts, James H.; Angermeier, Paul; Anderson, Gregory B.

2016-01-01

A common strategy for recovering endangered species is ensuring that populations exceed the minimum viable population size (MVP), a demographic benchmark that theoretically ensures low long-term extinction risk. One method of establishing MVP is population viability analysis, a modeling technique that simulates population trajectories and forecasts extinction risk based on a series of biological, environmental, and management assumptions. Such models also help identify key uncertainties that have a large influence on extinction risk. We used stochastic count-based simulation models to explore extinction risk, MVP, and the possible benefits of alternative management strategies in populations of Roanoke logperch Percina rex, an endangered stream fish. Estimates of extinction risk were sensitive to the assumed population growth rate and model type, carrying capacity, and catastrophe regime (frequency and severity of anthropogenic fish kills), whereas demographic augmentation did little to reduce extinction risk. Under density-dependent growth, the estimated MVP for Roanoke logperch ranged from 200 to 4200 individuals, depending on the assumed severity of catastrophes. Thus, depending on the MVP threshold, anywhere from two to all five of the logperch populations we assessed were projected to be viable. Despite this uncertainty, these results help identify populations with the greatest relative extinction risk, as well as management strategies that might reduce this risk the most, such as increasing carrying capacity and reducing fish kills. Better estimates of population growth parameters and catastrophe regimes would facilitate the refinement of MVP and extinction-risk estimates, and they should be a high priority for future research on Roanoke logperch and other imperiled stream-fish species.

Modelling Risk to US Military Populations from Stopping Blanket Mandatory Polio Vaccination

PubMed Central

Burgess, Andrew

2017-01-01

Objectives Transmission of polio poses a threat to military forces when deploying to regions where such viruses are endemic. US-born soldiers generally enter service with immunity resulting from childhood immunization against polio; moreover, new recruits are routinely vaccinated with inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV), supplemented based upon deployment circumstances. Given residual protection from childhood vaccination, risk-based vaccination may sufficiently protect troops from polio transmission. Methods This analysis employed a mathematical system for polio transmission within military populations interacting with locals in a polio-endemic region to evaluate changes in vaccination policy. Results Removal of blanket immunization had no effect on simulated polio incidence among deployed military populations when risk-based immunization was employed; however, when these individuals reintegrated with their base populations, risk of transmission to nondeployed personnel increased by 19%. In the absence of both blanket- and risk-based immunization, transmission to nondeployed populations increased by 25%. The overall number of new infections among nondeployed populations was negligible for both scenarios due to high childhood immunization rates, partial protection against transmission conferred by IPV, and low global disease incidence levels. Conclusion Risk-based immunization driven by deployment to polio-endemic regions is sufficient to prevent transmission among both deployed and nondeployed US military populations. PMID:29104608

Modelling Risk to US Military Populations from Stopping Blanket Mandatory Polio Vaccination.

PubMed

Burgess, Colleen; Burgess, Andrew; McMullen, Kellie

2017-01-01

Transmission of polio poses a threat to military forces when deploying to regions where such viruses are endemic. US-born soldiers generally enter service with immunity resulting from childhood immunization against polio; moreover, new recruits are routinely vaccinated with inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV), supplemented based upon deployment circumstances. Given residual protection from childhood vaccination, risk-based vaccination may sufficiently protect troops from polio transmission. This analysis employed a mathematical system for polio transmission within military populations interacting with locals in a polio-endemic region to evaluate changes in vaccination policy. Removal of blanket immunization had no effect on simulated polio incidence among deployed military populations when risk-based immunization was employed; however, when these individuals reintegrated with their base populations, risk of transmission to nondeployed personnel increased by 19%. In the absence of both blanket- and risk-based immunization, transmission to nondeployed populations increased by 25%. The overall number of new infections among nondeployed populations was negligible for both scenarios due to high childhood immunization rates, partial protection against transmission conferred by IPV, and low global disease incidence levels. Risk-based immunization driven by deployment to polio-endemic regions is sufficient to prevent transmission among both deployed and nondeployed US military populations.

Neonatal vitamin D status and risk of schizophrenia: a population-based case-control study.

PubMed

McGrath, John J; Eyles, Darryl W; Pedersen, Carsten B; Anderson, Cameron; Ko, Pauline; Burne, Thomas H; Norgaard-Pedersen, Bent; Hougaard, David M; Mortensen, Preben B

2010-09-01

Clues from the epidemiology of schizophrenia suggest that low levels of developmental vitamin D may be associated with increased risk of schizophrenia. To directly examine the association between neonatal vitamin D status and risk of schizophrenia. Individually matched case-control study drawn from a population-based cohort. Danish national health registers and neonatal biobank. A total of 424 individuals with schizophrenia and 424 controls matched for sex and date of birth. The concentration of 25 hydroxyvitamin D(3) (25[OH]D3) was assessed from neonatal dried blood samples using a highly sensitive liquid chromatography tandem mass spectroscopy method. Relative risks were calculated for the matched pairs when examined for quintiles of 25(OH)D3. Compared with neonates in the fourth quintile (with 25[OH]D3 concentrations between 40.5 and 50.9 nmol/L), those in each of the lower 3 quintiles had a significantly increased risk of schizophrenia (2-fold elevated risk). Unexpectedly, those in the highest quintile also had a significantly increased risk of schizophrenia. Based on this analysis, the population-attributable fraction associated with neonatal vitamin D status was 44%. The relationship was not explained by a wide range of potential confounding or interacting variables. Both low and high concentrations of neonatal vitamin D are associated with increased risk of schizophrenia, and it is feasible that this exposure could contribute to a sizeable proportion of cases in Denmark. In light of the substantial public health implications of this finding, there is an urgent need to further explore the effect of vitamin D status on brain development and later mental health.

Fibromyalgia and Risk of Dementia-A Nationwide, Population-Based, Cohort Study.

PubMed

Tzeng, Nian-Sheng; Chung, Chi-Hsiang; Liu, Feng-Cheng; Chiu, Yu-Hsiang; Chang, Hsin-An; Yeh, Chin-Bin; Huang, San-Yuan; Lu, Ru-Band; Yeh, Hui-Wen; Kao, Yu-Chen; Chiang, Wei-Shan; Tsao, Chang-Hui; Wu, Yung-Fu; Chou, Yu-Ching; Lin, Fu-Huang; Chien, Wu-Chien

2018-02-01

Fibromyalgia is a syndrome of chronic pain and other symptoms and is associated with patient discomfort and other diseases. This nationwide matched-cohort population-based study aimed to investigate the association between fibromyalgia and the risk of developing dementia, and to clarify the association between fibromyalgia and dementia. A total of 41,612 patients of age ≥50 years with newly diagnosed fibromyalgia between January 1, and December 31, 2000 were selected from the National Health Insurance Research Database of Taiwan, along with 124,836 controls matched for sex and age. After adjusting for any confounding factors, Fine and Gray competing risk analysis was used to compare the risk of developing dementia during the 10 years of follow-up. Of the study subjects, 1,704 from 41,612 fibromyalgia patients (21.23 per 1,000 person-years) developed dementia when compared to 4,419 from 124,836 controls (18.94 per 1,000 person-years). Fine and Gray competing risk analysis revealed that the study subjects were more likely to develop dementia (hazard ratio: 2.29, 95% CI: 2.16-2.42; P < 0.001). After adjusting for sex, age, monthly income, urbanization level, geographic region of residence and comorbidities the hazard ratio was 2.77 (95% CI: 2.61-2.95, P < 0.001). Fibromyalgia was associated with increased risk of all types of dementia in this study. The study subjects with fibromyalgia had a 2.77-fold risk of dementia in comparison to the control group. Therefore, further studies are needed to elucidate the underlying mechanisms of the association between fibromyalgia and the risk of dementia. Copyright © 2018 Southern Society for Clinical Investigation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk of placenta previa in second birth after first birth cesarean section: a population-based study and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Objective: To compare the risk of placenta previa at second birth among women who had a cesarean section (CS) at first birth with women who delivered vaginally. Methods Retrospective cohort study of 399,674 women who gave birth to a singleton first and second baby between April 2000 and February 2009 in England. Multiple logistic regression was used to adjust the estimates for maternal age, ethnicity, deprivation, placenta previa at first birth, inter-birth interval and pregnancy complications. In addition, we conducted a meta-analysis of the reported results in peer-reviewed articles since 1980. Results The rate of placenta previa at second birth for women with vaginal first births was 4.4 per 1000 births, compared to 8.7 per 1000 births for women with CS at first birth. After adjustment, CS at first birth remained associated with an increased risk of placenta previa (odds ratio = 1.60; 95% CI 1.44 to 1.76). In the meta-analysis of 37 previously published studies from 21 countries, the overall pooled random effects odds ratio was 2.20 (95% CI 1.96-2.46). Our results from the current study is consistent with those of the meta-analysis as the pooled odds ratio for the six population-based cohort studies that analyzed second births only was 1.51 (95% CI 1.39-1.65). Conclusions There is an increased risk of placenta previa in the subsequent pregnancy after CS delivery at first birth, but the risk is lower than previously estimated. Given the placenta previa rate in England and the adjusted effect of previous CS, 359 deliveries by CS at first birth would result in one additional case of placenta previa in the next pregnancy. PMID:22103697

Commonality of Risk Factors for Mothers' Poor Oral Health and General Health: Baseline Analysis of a Population-Based Birth Cohort Study.

PubMed

Ha, Diep H; Spencer, A John; Thomson, W Murray; Scott, Jane A; Do, Loc G

2018-04-01

Objective The association between and commonality of risk factors for poor self-rated oral health (SROH) and general health (SRGH) among new mothers has not been reported. The purpose of this paper is to assess the commonality of risk factors for poor SROH and SRGH, and self-reported obesity and dental pain, among a population-based sample of new mothers in Australia. It also investigated health conditions affecting new mothers' general health. Methods Data collected at baseline of a population-based birth cohort was used. Mothers of newborns in Adelaide were approached to participate. Mothers completed a questionnaire collecting data on socioeconomic status (SES), health behaviours, dental pain, SROH, self-reported height and weight and SRGH. Analysis was conducted sequentially from bivariate to multivariable regression to estimate prevalence rate (PR) of reporting poor/fair SROH and SRGH. Results of the 1895 new mothers, some 21 and 6% rated their SROH and SRGH as poor/fair respectively. Dental pain was associated with low income and smoking status, while being obese was associated with low SES, low education and infrequent tooth brushing. SROH and SRGH was associated with low SES, smoking, and dental pain. SROH was also associated with SRGH [PR: 3.06 (2.42-3.88)]. Conclusion for practice There was a commonality of factors associated with self-rated oral health and general health. Strong associations between OH and GH were also observed. Given the importance of maternal health for future generations, there would be long-term societal benefit from addressing common risk factors for OH and GH in integrated programs.

Familial risk of epilepsy: a population-based study

PubMed Central

Peljto, Anna L.; Barker-Cummings, Christie; Vasoli, Vincent M.; Leibson, Cynthia L.; Hauser, W. Allen; Buchhalter, Jeffrey R.

2014-01-01

Almost all previous studies of familial risk of epilepsy have had potentially serious methodological limitations. Our goal was to address these limitations and provide more rigorous estimates of familial risk in a population-based study. We used the unique resources of the Rochester Epidemiology Project to identify all 660 Rochester, Minnesota residents born in 1920 or later with incidence of epilepsy from 1935–94 (probands) and their 2439 first-degree relatives who resided in Olmsted County. We assessed incidence of epilepsy in relatives by comprehensive review of the relatives’ medical records, and estimated age-specific cumulative incidence and standardized incidence ratios for epilepsy in relatives compared with the general population, according to proband and relative characteristics. Among relatives of all probands, cumulative incidence of epilepsy to age 40 was 4.7%, and risk was increased 3.3-fold (95% confidence interval 2.75–5.99) compared with population incidence. Risk was increased to the greatest extent in relatives of probands with idiopathic generalized epilepsies (standardized incidence ratio 6.0) and epilepsies associated with intellectual or motor disability presumed present from birth, which we denoted ‘prenatal/developmental cause’ (standardized incidence ratio 4.3). Among relatives of probands with epilepsy without identified cause (including epilepsies classified as ‘idiopathic’ or ‘unknown cause’), risk was significantly increased for epilepsy of prenatal/developmental cause (standardized incidence ratio 4.1). Similarly, among relatives of probands with prenatal/developmental cause, risk was significantly increased for epilepsies without identified cause (standardized incidence ratio 3.8). In relatives of probands with generalized epilepsy, standardized incidence ratios were 8.3 (95% confidence interval 2.93–15.31) for generalized epilepsy and 2.5 (95% confidence interval 0.92–4.00) for focal epilepsy. In relatives of

Risk factors for child maltreatment in an Australian population-based birth cohort.

PubMed

Doidge, James C; Higgins, Daryl J; Delfabbro, Paul; Segal, Leonie

2017-02-01

Child maltreatment and other adverse childhood experiences adversely influence population health and socioeconomic outcomes. Knowledge of the risk factors for child maltreatment can be used to identify children at risk and may represent opportunities for prevention. We examined a range of possible child, parent and family risk factors for child maltreatment in a prospective 27-year population-based birth cohort of 2443 Australians. Physical abuse, sexual abuse, emotional abuse, neglect and witnessing of domestic violence were recorded retrospectively in early adulthood. Potential risk factors were collected prospectively during childhood or reported retrospectively. Associations were estimated using bivariate and multivariate logistic regressions and combined into cumulative risk scores. Higher levels of economic disadvantage, poor parental mental health and substance use, and social instability were strongly associated with increased risk of child maltreatment. Indicators of child health displayed mixed associations and infant temperament was uncorrelated to maltreatment. Some differences were observed across types of maltreatment but risk profiles were generally similar. In multivariate analyses, nine independent risk factors were identified, including some that are potentially modifiable: economic disadvantage and parental substance use problems. Risk of maltreatment increased exponentially with the number of risk factors experienced, with prevalence of maltreatment in the highest risk groups exceeding 80%. A cumulative risk score based on the independent risk factors allowed identification of individuals at very high risk of maltreatment, while a score that incorporated all significant risk and protective factors provided better identification of low-risk individuals. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Postoperative radioactive iodine-131 ablation is not necessary among patients with intermediate-risk differentiated thyroid carcinoma: a population-based study.

PubMed

Zhang, Hong; Cai, Yuechang; Zheng, Li; Zhang, Zhanlei; Jiang, Ningyi

2017-01-01

To assess the effectiveness of radioactive iodine (RAI) ablation among patients with intermediate-risk differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) following surgery. This population based study obtained information from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program Research Data (1973-2013). National Cancer Institute, DCCPS, Surveillance Research Programme, Surveillance Systems Branch, released April 2016, based on the November 2015 submission. A total of 93,530 patients with primary thyroid cancer were identified in the SEER database during the period of 2004-2013 and focused on patients with DTC post-operatively treated or not treated with radioactive iodine (RAI). From these 9,127 patients were selected who had intermediate-risk DTC. A total of 8,601 patients were included in this study. For the overall population, the mean age of the population was 47.3 years and the majority were female (70.5%). Kaplan-Meier analysis found the mean overall survival time (os) for subjects with no radiation therapy which was 112.9 months and 114.9 months for those who received RAI ablation treatment (P<0.001). However, thyroid cancer-specific survival was not significantly different between treatment groups (117.7 vs. 118.0 months, log-rank test P=0.164). Overall survival and thyroid cancer-specific 1 year, 5 years, and 10-years survival rates were ≥89.8% and were similar between both treated groups. Multivariate analysis found age, gender, histologic type, and degree of lymph node metastases to be associated with OS, and age, gender, degree of lymph node metastasis and extra-thyroid tumor spread were independent factors for cancer-specific survival. In DTC patients with intermediate cancer risk multivariate analysis found that RAI was associated with a reduced risk of mortality compared with no radiation therapy (HR=0.710, 95% CI: 0.562-0.897, P=0.004) but no significant difference was seen in cancer-specific survival, either based on whole study population or on

A Population-Based Study of Dietary Acrylamide and Prostate Cancer Risk

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-03-01

159 microgram/day. 3. The four food products that contributed the most to the total intake of acrylamide among controls were crisp bread, coffee ... Acrylamide and Prostate Cancer Risk PRINCIPLE INVESTIGATOR: Hans-Olov Adami, M.D., Ph.D. CONTRACTING ORGANIZATION: Karolinska...NUMBER A Population-Based Study of Dietary Acrylamide and Prostate Cancer Risk 5b. GRANT NUMBER W81XWH-04-1-0288 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER

Central nervous system infections and stroke -- a population-based analysis.

PubMed

Chien, L-N; Chi, N-F; Hu, C-J; Chiou, H-Y

2013-10-01

Chronic central nervous system (CNS) infections have been found to associate with cerebrovascular complications. Acute CNS infections are more common than chronic CNS infections, but whether they could increase the risk of vascular diseases has not been studied. The study cohort comprised all adult patients with diagnoses of CNS infections from Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database during 2000-2009 (n = 533). The comparison group were matched by age, sex, urbanization, diagnostic year, and vascular risk factors of cases (cases and controls = 1:5). Patients were tracked for at least 1 year. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to compare the risk of stroke and acute myocardial infarction (AMI) after adjusting censoring subjects. After adjusting the patients demographic characteristics and comorbidities, the risk of patients with CNS infections developing stroke was 2.75-3.44 times greater than their comparison group. More than 70% of the stroke events were occurring within 1 year after CNS infections. The risk of AMI was not found as we compared patients with and without CNS infections. The population-based cohort study suggested that adult patients with CNS infections have higher risk to develop stroke but not AMI, and the risk is marked within a year after infections. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Fasting insulin, insulin resistance and risk of hypertension in the general population: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Wang, Feng; Han, Lili; Hu, Dayi

2017-01-01

Studies on the association of fasting insulin concentrations or insulin resistance with subsequent risk of hypertension have yielded conflicting results. To quantitatively assess the association of fasting insulin concentrations or homeostasis model assessment insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) with incident hypertension in a general population by performing a meta-analysis. We searched the PubMed and Embase databases until August 31, 2016 for prospective observational studies investigating the elevated fasting insulin concentrations or HOMA-IR with subsequent risk of hypertension in the general population. Pooled risk ratio (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of hypertension was calculated for the highest versus the lowest category of fasting insulin or HOMA-IR. Eleven studies involving 10,230 hypertension cases were identified from 55,059 participants. Meta-analysis showed that the pooled adjusted RR of hypertension was 1.54 (95% CI 1.34-1.76) for fasting insulin concentrations and 1.43 (95% CI 1.27-1.62) for HOMA-IR comparing the highest to the lowest category. Subgroup analysis results showed that the association of fasting insulin concentrations with subsequent risk of hypertension seemed more pronounced in women (RR 2.07; 95% CI 1.19-3.60) than in men (RR 1.48; 95% CI 1.17-1.88). This meta-analysis suggests that elevated fasting insulin concentrations or insulin resistance as estimated by homeostasis model assessment is independently associated with an exacerbated risk of hypertension in the general population. Early intervention of hyperinsulinemia or insulin resistance may help clinicians to identify the high risk of hypertensive population. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Performance of diagnosis-based risk adjustment measures in a population of sick Australians.

PubMed

Duckett, S J; Agius, P A

2002-12-01

Australia is beginning to explore 'managed competition' as an organising framework for the health care system. This requires setting fair capitation rates, i.e. rates that adjust for the risk profile of covered lives. This paper tests two US-developed risk adjustment approaches using Australian data. Data from the 'co-ordinated care' dataset (which incorporates all service costs of 16,538 participants in a large health service research project conducted in 1996-99) were grouped into homogenous risk categories using risk adjustment 'grouper software'. The grouper products yielded three sets of homogenous categories: Diagnostic Groups and Diagnostic cost Groups. A two-stage analysis of predictive power was used: probability of any service use in the concurrent year, next year and the year after (logistic regression) and, for service users, a regression of logged cost of service use. The independent variables were diagnosis gender, a SES variable and the Age, gender and diagnosis-based risk adjustment measures explain around 40-45% of variation in costs of service use in the current year for untrimmed data (compared with around 15% for age and gender alone). Prediction of subsequent use is much poorer (around 20%). Using more information to assign people to risk categories generally improves prediction. Predictive power of diagnosis-base risk adjusters on this Australian dataset is similar to that found in Low predictive power carries policy risks of cream skimming rather than managing population health and care. Competitive funding models with risk adjustment on prior year experience could reduce system efficiency if implemented with current risk adjustment technology.

Health care professionals' attitudes towards population-based genetic testing and risk-stratification for ovarian cancer: a cross-sectional survey.

PubMed

Hann, Katie E J; Fraser, Lindsay; Side, Lucy; Gessler, Sue; Waller, Jo; Sanderson, Saskia C; Freeman, Madeleine; Jacobs, Ian; Lanceley, Anne

2017-12-16

Ovarian cancer is usually diagnosed at a late stage when outcomes are poor. Personalised ovarian cancer risk prediction, based on genetic and epidemiological information and risk stratified management in adult women could improve outcomes. Examining health care professionals' (HCP) attitudes to ovarian cancer risk stratified management, willingness to support women, self-efficacy (belief in one's own ability to successfully complete a task), and knowledge about ovarian cancer will help identify training needs in anticipation of personalised ovarian cancer risk prediction being introduced. An anonymous survey was distributed online to HCPs via relevant professional organisations in the UK. Kruskal-Wallis tests and pairwise comparisons were used to compare knowledge and self-efficacy scores between different types of HCPs, and attitudes toward population-based genetic testing and risk stratified management were described. Content analysis was undertaken of free text responses concerning HCPs willingness to discuss risk management options with women. One hundred forty-six eligible HCPs completed the survey: oncologists (31%); genetics clinicians (30%); general practitioners (22%); gynaecologists (10%); nurses (4%); and 'others'. Scores for knowledge of ovarian cancer and genetics, and self-efficacy in conducting a cancer risk consultation were generally high but significantly lower for general practitioners compared to genetics clinicians, oncologists, and gynaecologists. Support for population-based genetic testing was not high (<50%). Attitudes towards ovarian cancer risk stratification were mixed, although the majority of participants indicated a willingness to discuss management options with patients. Larger samples are required to investigate attitudes to population-based genetic testing for ovarian cancer risk and to establish why some HCPs are hesitant to offer testing to all adult female patients. If ovarian cancer risk assessment using genetic testing and non

Is the association between flow-mediated dilation and cardiovascular risk limited to low-risk populations?

PubMed

Witte, Daniel R; Westerink, Jan; de Koning, Eelco J; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Grobbee, Diederick E; Bots, Michiel L

2005-06-21

The aim of this research was to study whether the relation between endothelial function measured by flow-mediated dilation (FMD) of the brachial artery and cardiovascular risk factors is affected by the baseline cardiovascular risk. Flow-mediated dilation of the brachial artery is widely used as a measure of endothelial function. Relations between FMD and most cardiovascular risk factors have been described. We performed a meta-regression analysis of 211 selected articles (399 populations) reporting on FMD and cardiovascular risk factors. Mean values of FMD; age; proportion of men; proportion of smokers; blood pressure; lipids; glucose; and the presence of diabetes mellitus, of hyperlipidemia, and of hypertension were retrieved from the articles. The 10-year risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) for each population was estimated based on the Framingham risk score. The relation between FMD and cardiovascular risk factors was assessed within each risk category by linear regression analysis, adjusting for age and gender, and weighted for the study size. A relation between FMD and cardiovascular risk factors was most clear in the category with lowest baseline risk (below 2.8% per decade). In populations with low baseline risk, for each % increase in Framingham risk, FMD decreased by 1.42% (95% confidence interval: 0.65 to 2.19). In medium- and high-risk populations, FMD was not related to risk (-0.02% [-0.27 to 0.22] and 0.06% [-0.02 to 0.13], respectively). These findings were independent of differences in brachial lumen diameter and technical aspects of the FMD measurement. Only in populations at low risk, endothelial function measured by FMD is related to the principal cardiovascular risk factors, and to the estimated 10-year risk of CHD.

A Comparison of Rule-based Analysis with Regression Methods in Understanding the Risk Factors for Study Withdrawal in a Pediatric Study.

PubMed

Haghighi, Mona; Johnson, Suzanne Bennett; Qian, Xiaoning; Lynch, Kristian F; Vehik, Kendra; Huang, Shuai

2016-08-26

Regression models are extensively used in many epidemiological studies to understand the linkage between specific outcomes of interest and their risk factors. However, regression models in general examine the average effects of the risk factors and ignore subgroups with different risk profiles. As a result, interventions are often geared towards the average member of the population, without consideration of the special health needs of different subgroups within the population. This paper demonstrates the value of using rule-based analysis methods that can identify subgroups with heterogeneous risk profiles in a population without imposing assumptions on the subgroups or method. The rules define the risk pattern of subsets of individuals by not only considering the interactions between the risk factors but also their ranges. We compared the rule-based analysis results with the results from a logistic regression model in The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study. Both methods detected a similar suite of risk factors, but the rule-based analysis was superior at detecting multiple interactions between the risk factors that characterize the subgroups. A further investigation of the particular characteristics of each subgroup may detect the special health needs of the subgroup and lead to tailored interventions.

A Population-based Screening of Type 2 Diabetes in High-risk Population of Yasuj, Iran

PubMed Central

Yazdanpanah, Behrouz; Yazdanpanah, Behzad; Mobasheri, Ali

2014-01-01

ABSTRACT Complications associated with diabetes can be prevented by early diagnostics. A high-risk population was screened for diabetes, and the prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes mellitus (DM) and impaired fasting glucose (IFG) were used for examining the impacts of lifestyle, social and anthropometric features, and other risk factors. The target population comprised 30-65 years old residents from the western suburbs of Yasuj. Homes were approached, and a standard questionnaire was used for collecting information on sex, blood pressure, weight, height, and BMI for each participant. The high-risk participants were recognized according to the National Diabetes Prevention and Control Committee criteria and were introduced to an assigned laboratory. Blood samples were collected after 12-hour fasting for the measurement of total cholesterol, triglycerides and fasting glucose levels. The statistical analysis was performed with the SPSS statistical package, using a logistic regression model. Out of 2,569 individuals, 1,336 (52%) were with high-risk diabetes, 71.5% were female, and 28.5% were male. Of 191 (7.4%) individuals with known diabetes, 5 (2.6%) had type 1 diabetes; 881 (66.9%) out of 1,336 high-risk individuals were referred to assigned laboratory. Of 881 high-risk individuals, 157 (17.8%) had fasting blood sugar (FBS) ≥126 mg/dL and 118 (13.4%) had FBS between110 and 125 mg/dL. Percentages of participants with triglyceride ≥150 mg/dL and cholesterol ≥200 mg/dL were 298 (33.8%) and 207 (23.5%) respectively. Diabetes was associated with ageing, dyslipidaemia, family history of diabetes, lower physical activity on occupation, intake of lower dietary fibre, and non-literacy in the sampled population. This study suggests that diabetes is a common health problem in this area. Furthermore, considerable rate of newly-diagnosed diabetes signifies the importance of the screening programme. PMID:25895201

A Population-based survey of risk for cancer in individuals diagnosed with myotonic dystrophy

PubMed Central

Abbott, Diana; Johnson, Nicholas E; Cannon-Albright, Lisa A.

2018-01-01

Introduction The risk of cancer in patients diagnosed with myotonic dystrophy (DM) is reported for the homogeneous Utah population. Methods Clinical data accessed from the largest Utah healthcare providers have been record-linked to the Utah Population Database (UPDB), a population-based resource also linked to the Utah Cancer Registry. Relative risks were estimated for 36 cancers of different types in 281 DM patients. Results Testicular cancer (RR=10.74; 95% CI: 1.91, 38.79), endometrial cancer (6.98; 1.24, 25.22), and Non-Hodgkins lymphoma (4.25; 1.16, 12.43) were all observed at significant excess in DM patients. Discussion This study confirms an overall increased risk of cancer in DM. Individuals diagnosed with DM might benefit from risk counseling. PMID:27064430

Gonorrhea infection increases the risk of prostate cancer in Asian population: a nationwide population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Wang, Y-C; Chung, C-H; Chen, J-H; Chiang, M-H; Ti-Yin; Tsao, C-H; Lin, F-H; Chien, W-C; Shang, S-T; Chang, F-Y

2017-05-01

This nationwide population-based retrospective cohort study evaluated the risk of developing prostate cancer among patients with gonorrhea. We identified cases of newly diagnosed gonorrhea in men between 2000 and 2010 from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. Each patient with gonorrhea was matched to four controls, based on age and index year. All subjects were followed up from the index date to December 31, 2010. The Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to assess the risk of prostate cancer. A total of 355 men were included in the study group, and 1,420 age-matched subjects without gonorrhea were included in the control group. After adjusting for age, comorbidities, urbanization level, hospital level, and monthly income, gonorrhea was significantly associated with an increased risk of prostate cancer (adjusted hazard ratio = 5.66, 95% confidence interval = 1.36-23.52). Men aged 45-70 years and those with lower monthly income were more strongly associated with prostate cancer in the study group than the control group. The higher risk for developing prostate cancer were also found in those without syphilis, without genital warts, without diabetes mellitus, without chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, without benign prostatic hypertrophy, without chronic prostatitis, and without alcoholism. The Kaplan-Meier analysis showed the risk of prostate cancer was significantly higher in the study group than in the control group. Gonorrhea may be involved in the development of prostate cancer. More intensive screening and prevention interventions for prostate cancer should be recommended in men with gonorrhea.

Green tea and liver cancer risk: A meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies in Asian populations.

PubMed

Huang, Ya-Qing; Lu, Xin; Min, Han; Wu, Qian-Qian; Shi, Xiao-Ting; Bian, Kang-Qi; Zou, Xiao-Ping

2016-01-01

The aim of this meta-analysis was to investigate whether an association existed between green tea consumption and the risk for liver cancer in prospective cohort studies in Asian populations. Relevant studies were identified by searching PubMed, EMBASE, ISI Web of Science, and the Chinese Bio-medicine Database published before April 2015. Study-specific risk estimates for the highest versus non- or lowest and increment of daily cup of green tea consumption levels were combined based on fixed- or random-effects models. STATA 11.0 (Stata Corporation, College Station, TX, USA) software was used for statistical analysis. Nine prospective cohort articles involving 465,274 participants and 3694 cases of liver cancer from China, Japan, and Singapore were included. The summary relative risk (RR) indicated a significant association between the highest green tea consumption and reduced risk for liver cancer (summary RR, 0.88; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.81-0.97). However, no statistically significant association was observed when analyzing daily consumption of one cup (summary RR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.95-1.00). When stratified by sex, the protective effect of green tea consumption on risk for liver cancer was observed only in the group of women (summary RR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.64-0.96), but not in men (summary RR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.79-1.00). The present analysis indicated the preventive effects of green tea intake on the risk for liver cancer in female Asian populations. However, additional studies are needed to make a convincing case for this association. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Company observational post-marketing studies: drug risk assessment and drug research in special populations--a study-based analysis.

PubMed

Hasford, J; Lamprecht, T

1998-01-01

Company observational post-marketing studies (COPS) claim to provide essential data about drug risks and effectiveness in special populations not admitted to pre-approval clinical trials. Since COPS are often mainly regarded as a marketing activity, this study-based analysis tries to evaluate the scientific contributions of COPS. Thirty-five COPS were identified by hand-searching through medical journals, writing to pharmaceutical manufacturers and using MEDLINE. Fourteen COPS evaluated cardiovascular drugs, 9 evaluated NSAIDs and 12 evaluated various other indications. Thirty-five COPS listed effectiveness, 31 listed safety and 8 listed patient compliance as principal objectives. Not a single COPS included a control group. Seventeen of 21 evaluable COPS mentioned extensive exclusion criteria similar to those in clinical trials. Median observation time was 8 weeks, too short for chronic diseases and for adverse drug reactions with longer latency periods. One new adverse event was regarded. Global assessments of the outcomes by physicians dominated and were not based on objective clinical findings. None of the studies specified any details concerning the standardisation of observations or quality-control procedures. The current COPS scheme does not contribute significantly to our knowledge of drug safety and the effects in special populations. Despite serious criticism over the past 20 years, the poor quality of COPS compared with dramatic improvements of pre-approval trials - implies a need for detailed guidelines for non-experimental phase IV research, similar to the Good Clinical Practice-Guideline of the European Community.

Dietary patterns and the risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma: A population-based case-control study in a rural population.

PubMed

Liu, Xudong; Wang, Xiaorong; Lin, Sihao; Lao, Xiangqian; Zhao, Jin; Song, Qingkun; Su, Xuefen; Tak-Sun Yu, Ignatius

2017-02-01

Few studies were available in exploring the roles of dietary patterns in the development of esophageal cancer, especially in China. This study aimed to investigate the roles of dietary patterns in the risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) in a Chinese rural population. A population-based cases-control study was designed and conducted in Yanting County, Sichuan Province of China during two years (between June 2011 and May 2013). A total of 942 pairs of ESCC cases and controls were recruited. A food frequency questionnaire was adopted to collect information of dietary consumption. Dietary patterns were extracted by using principle component and factor analysis based on 24 dietary groups. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated by using logistic regression model, with adjustment for possible confounding variables. Four major dietary patterns were identified, which were labeled as "prudent", "vegetable and fruits", "processed food" and "alcohol drinking". In comparison of the highest with the lowest quartiles of pattern scores, the processed food pattern (OR: 2.84, 95% CI: 2.13-3.80) and alcohol drinking pattern (OR: 2.69, 95% CI: 1.95-3.71) were significantly associated with an increased risk of ESCC, while the vegetable and fruit pattern (OR: 0.70, 95% CI: 0.53-0.92) was associated with reduced risk by 30%. The prudent pattern was associated with a reduced risk by 33% (OR: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.50-0.88) in a multivariate logistic regression model, but no statistical significance was reached in a composite model. The results suggest an important role of dietary patterns in ESCC. Diets rich in vegetables and fruits may decrease the risk of ESCC, whereas diets rich in processed food and drinking alcohol may increase the risk. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

Population-based contracting (population health): part II.

PubMed

Jacofsky, D J

2017-11-01

Modern healthcare contracting is shifting the responsibility for improving quality, enhancing community health and controlling the total cost of care for patient populations from payers to providers. Population-based contracting involves capitated risk taken across an entire population, such that any included services within the contract are paid for by the risk-bearing entity throughout the term of the agreement. Under such contracts, a risk-bearing entity, which may be a provider group, a hospital or another payer, administers the contract and assumes risk for contractually defined services. These contracts can be structured in various ways, from professional fee capitation to full global per member per month diagnosis-based risk. The entity contracting with the payer must have downstream network contracts to provide the care and facilities that it has agreed to provide. Population health is a very powerful model to reduce waste and costs. It requires a deep understanding of the nuances of such contracting and the appropriate infrastructure to manage both networks and risk. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2017;99-B:1431-4. ©2017 The British Editorial Society of Bone & Joint Surgery.

Polypharmacy correlates with increased risk for hip fracture in the elderly: a population-based study.

PubMed

Lai, Shih-Wei; Liao, Kuan-Fu; Liao, Chien-Chang; Muo, Chih-Hsin; Liu, Chiu-Shong; Sung, Fung-Chang

2010-09-01

Few studies have addressed the association between polypharmacy and hip fracture using population data. We conducted a population-based case-control study to investigate whether polypharmacy increases the risk for hip fracture in the elderly. We used insurance claims data from the Taiwan Bureau of National Health Insurance, a universal insurance program with a coverage rate of more than 98% of the population in Taiwan. We identified 2328 elderly patients with newly diagnosed hip fracture during the period 2005-2007. We randomly selected 9312 individuals without hip fracture to serve as the control group. Patient characteristics, drugs prescribed by physicians, and all types of hip fracture were ascertained. The odds ratio (OR) of hip fracture in association with the number of medications used per day in previous years was assessed.We found that patients were older than controls, predominantly female, and more likely to use 5 or more drugs (22.2% vs. 9.3%, p < 0.0001). The OR of hip fracture increased with the number of medications used per day and with age. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the overall OR for patients using 10 or more drugs was 8.42 (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.73-15.0) compared with patients who used 0-1 drug per day. However, age-specific analysis revealed that the risk for hip fracture was 23 times greater for patients aged > or = 85 years who used 10 or more drugs than for those aged 65-74 years who used 0-1 drug after controlling for covariates (OR, 23.0; 95% CI, 3.77-140).We conclude that the risk of hip fracture in older people increases with the number of medications used, especially in women. Age interacts with the daily medications for the risk of hip fracture.

Polygenic Risk Score, Parental Socioeconomic Status, Family History of Psychiatric Disorders, and the Risk for Schizophrenia: A Danish Population-Based Study and Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Agerbo, Esben; Sullivan, Patrick F; Vilhjálmsson, Bjarni J; Pedersen, Carsten B; Mors, Ole; Børglum, Anders D; Hougaard, David M; Hollegaard, Mads V; Meier, Sandra; Mattheisen, Manuel; Ripke, Stephan; Wray, Naomi R; Mortensen, Preben B

2015-07-01

Schizophrenia has a complex etiology influenced both by genetic and nongenetic factors but disentangling these factors is difficult. To estimate (1) how strongly the risk for schizophrenia relates to the mutual effect of the polygenic risk score, parental socioeconomic status, and family history of psychiatric disorders; (2) the fraction of cases that could be prevented if no one was exposed to these factors; (3) whether family background interacts with an individual's genetic liability so that specific subgroups are particularly risk prone; and (4) to what extent a proband's genetic makeup mediates the risk associated with familial background. We conducted a nested case-control study based on Danish population-based registers. The study consisted of 866 patients diagnosed as having schizophrenia between January 1, 1994, and December 31, 2006, and 871 matched control individuals. Genome-wide data and family psychiatric and socioeconomic background information were obtained from neonatal biobanks and national registers. Results from a separate meta-analysis (34,600 cases and 45,968 control individuals) were applied to calculate polygenic risk scores. Polygenic risk scores, parental socioeconomic status, and family psychiatric history. Odds ratios (ORs), attributable risks, liability R2 values, and proportions mediated. Schizophrenia was associated with the polygenic risk score (OR, 8.01; 95% CI, 4.53-14.16 for highest vs lowest decile), socioeconomic status (OR, 8.10; 95% CI, 3.24-20.3 for 6 vs no exposures), and a history of schizophrenia/psychoses (OR, 4.18; 95% CI, 2.57-6.79). The R2 values were 3.4% (95% CI, 2.1-4.6) for the polygenic risk score, 3.1% (95% CI, 1.9-4.3) for parental socioeconomic status, and 3.4% (95% CI, 2.1-4.6) for family history. Socioeconomic status and psychiatric history accounted for 45.8% (95% CI, 36.1-55.5) and 25.8% (95% CI, 21.2-30.5) of cases, respectively. There was an interaction between the polygenic risk score and family history

Risk of venous thromboembolism in women with polycystic ovary syndrome: a population-based matched cohort analysis

PubMed Central

Bird, Steven T.; Hartzema, Abraham G.; Brophy, James M.; Etminan, Mahyar; Delaney, Joseph A.C.

2013-01-01

Background: There is an increased risk of venous thromboembolism among women taking oral contraceptives. However, whether there is an additional risk among women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is unknown. Methods: We developed a population-based cohort from the IMS LifeLink Health Plan Claims Database, which includes managed care organizations in the United States. Women aged 18–46 years taking combined oral contraceptives and who had a claim for PCOS (n = 43 506) were matched, based on a propensity score, to control women (n = 43 506) taking oral contraceptives. Venous thromboembolism was defined using administrative coding and use of anticoagulation. We used Cox proportional hazards models to assess the relative risk (RR) of venous thromboembolism among users of combined oral contraceptives with and without PCOS. Results: The incidence of venous thromboembolism among women with PCOS was 23.7/10 000 person-years, while that for matched controls was 10.9/10 000 person-years. Women with PCOS taking combined oral contraceptives had an RR for venous thromboembolism of 2.14 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.41–3.24) compared with other contraceptive users. The incidence of venous thromboembolism was 6.3/10 000 person-years among women with PCOS not taking oral contraceptives; the incidence was 4.1/10 000 person-years among matched controls. The RR of venous thromboembolism among women with PCOS not taking oral contraceptives was 1.55 (95% CI 1.10–2.19). Interpretation: We found a 2-fold increased risk of venous thromboembolism among women with PCOS who were taking combined oral contraceptives and a 1.5-fold increased risk among women with PCOS not taking oral contraceptives. Physicians should consider the increased risk of venous thromboembolism when prescribing contraceptive therapy to women with PCOS. PMID:23209115

Risk of venous thromboembolism in women with polycystic ovary syndrome: a population-based matched cohort analysis.

PubMed

Bird, Steven T; Hartzema, Abraham G; Brophy, James M; Etminan, Mahyar; Delaney, Joseph A C

2013-02-05

There is an increased risk of venous thromboembolism among women taking oral contraceptives. However, whether there is an additional risk among women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is unknown. We developed a population-based cohort from the IMS LifeLink Health Plan Claims Database, which includes managed care organizations in the United States. Women aged 18-46 years taking combined oral contraceptives and who had a claim for PCOS (n = 43 506) were matched, based on a propensity score, to control women (n = 43 506) taking oral contraceptives. Venous thromboembolism was defined using administrative coding and use of anticoagulation. We used Cox proportional hazards models to assess the relative risk (RR) of venous thromboembolism among users of combined oral contraceptives with and without PCOS. The incidence of venous thromboembolism among women with PCOS was 23.7/10 000 person-years, while that for matched controls was 10.9/10 000 person-years. Women with PCOS taking combined oral contraceptives had an RR for venous thromboembolism of 2.14 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.41-3.24) compared with other contraceptive users. The incidence of venous thromboembolism was 6.3/10 000 person-years among women with PCOS not taking oral contraceptives; the incidence was 4.1/10 000 person-years among matched controls. The RR of venous thromboembolism among women with PCOS not taking oral contraceptives was 1.55 (95% CI 1.10-2.19). We found a 2-fold increased risk of venous thromboembolism among women with PCOS who were taking combined oral contraceptives and a 1.5-fold increased risk among women with PCOS not taking oral contraceptives. Physicians should consider the increased risk of venous thromboembolism when prescribing contraceptive therapy to women with PCOS.

Assessing privacy risks in population health publications using a checklist-based approach.

PubMed

O'Keefe, Christine M; Ickowicz, Adrien; Churches, Tim; Westcott, Mark; O'Sullivan, Maree; Khan, Atikur

2017-11-10

Recent growth in the number of population health researchers accessing detailed datasets, either on their own computers or through virtual data centers, has the potential to increase privacy risks. In response, a checklist for identifying and reducing privacy risks in population health analysis outputs has been proposed for use by researchers themselves. In this study we explore the usability and reliability of such an approach by investigating whether different users identify the same privacy risks on applying the checklist to a sample of publications. The checklist was applied to a sample of 100 academic population health publications distributed among 5 readers. Cohen's κ was used to measure interrater agreement. Of the 566 instances of statistical output types found in the 100 publications, the most frequently occurring were counts, summary statistics, plots, and model outputs. Application of the checklist identified 128 outputs (22.6%) with potential privacy concerns. Most of these were associated with the reporting of small counts. Among these identified outputs, the readers found no substantial actual privacy concerns when context was taken into account. Interrater agreement for identifying potential privacy concerns was generally good. This study has demonstrated that a checklist can be a reliable tool to assist researchers with anonymizing analysis outputs in population health research. This further suggests that such an approach may have the potential to be developed into a broadly applicable standard providing consistent confidentiality protection across multiple analyses of the same data. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Exposure to Coxiella burnetii and risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma: a retrospective population-based analysis in the Netherlands.

PubMed

van Roeden, Sonja E; van Houwelingen, Fedor; Donkers, Chiel M J; Hogewoning, Sander J; de Lange, Marit M A; van der Hoek, Wim; Kampschreur, Linda M; Bonten, Marc J M; Hoepelman, Andy I M; Bleeker-Rovers, Chantal P; Wever, Peter C; Oosterheert, Jan Jelrik

2018-05-01

An association between Coxiella burnetii and non-Hodgkin lymphoma has been suggested. After a large Q fever epidemic in the Netherlands (2007-10), we postulated that the incidence of non-Hodgkin lymphoma would be increased during and after the epidemic in areas with a high endemicity of Q fever compared with those with low endemicity. We did a retrospective population-based analysis and calculated relative risks (RRs) of non-Hodgkin lymphoma during 1-year periods before, during, and after the Q fever epidemic, for areas with intermediate and high endemicity of Q fever compared with low endemic areas. We also calculated the RR of non-Hodgkin lymphoma in people with chronic Q fever compared with the general population. Between Jan 1, 2002, and Dec 31, 2013, 48 760 cases of non-Hodgkin lymphoma were diagnosed. The incidence of non-Hodgkin lymphoma ranged from 21·4 per 100 000 per year in 2002 to 26·7 per 100 000 per year in 2010. A significant association with non-Hodgkin lymphoma was noted in 2009 for areas with a high endemicity of Q fever compared with low endemic areas (RR 1·16, 95% CI 1·02-1·33; p=0·029); no further associations were noted in any other year or for areas with intermediate Q fever endemicity. Among 439 individuals with chronic Q fever, five developed non-Hodgkin lymphoma, yielding a crude absolute risk of 301·0 cases per 100 000 per year (RR 4·99, 95% CI 2·07-11·98; p=0·0003) compared with the general population in the Netherlands. These findings do not support the hypothesis that Q fever has a relevant causal role in the development of non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Several limitations, inherent to the design of this study, might lead to both underestimation and overestimation of the studied association. Foundation Q-support and Institut Mérieux. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamic population flow based risk analysis of infectious disease propagation in a metropolis.

PubMed

Zhang, Nan; Huang, Hong; Duarte, Marlyn; Zhang, Junfeng Jim

2016-09-01

Knowledge on the characteristics of infectious disease propagation in metropolises plays a critical role in guiding public health intervention strategies to reduce death tolls, disease incidence, and possible economic losses. Based on the SIR model, we established a comprehensive spatiotemporal risk assessment model to compute infectious disease propagation within an urban setting using Beijing, China as a case study. The model was developed for a dynamic population distribution using actual data on location, density of residences and offices, and means of public transportation (e.g., subways, buses and taxis). We evaluated four influencing factors including biological, behavioral, environmental parameters and infectious sources. The model output resulted in a set of maps showing how the four influencing factors affected the trend and characteristics of airborne infectious disease propagation in Beijing. We compared the scenarios for the long-term dynamic propagation of infectious disease without governmental interventions versus scenarios with government intervention and hospital coordinated emergency responses. Lastly, the sensitivity of the average number of people at different location in spreading infections is analyzed. Based on our results, we provide valuable recommendations to governmental agencies and the public in order to minimize the disease propagation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Latent Trajectories of Common Mental Health Disorder Risk Across 3 Decades of Adulthood in a Population-Based Cohort.

PubMed

Paksarian, Diana; Cui, Lihong; Angst, Jules; Ajdacic-Gross, Vladeta; Rössler, Wulf; Merikangas, Kathleen R

2016-10-01

Epidemiologic evidence indicates that most of the general population will experience a mental health disorder at some point in their lives. However, few prospective population-based studies have estimated trajectories of risk for mental disorders from young through middle adulthood to estimate the proportion of individuals who experience persistent mental disorder across this age period. To describe the proportion of the population who experience persistent mental disorder across adulthood and to estimate latent trajectories of disorder risk across this age period. A population-based, prospective cohort study was conducted between 1979 and 2008 in the canton of Zurich, Switzerland. A stratified random sample of 591 Swiss citizens was enrolled in 1978 at ages 19 years (men) and 20 years (women); 7 interviews were performed during a 29-year period. Men were sampled from military enrollment records and women from electoral records. From those initially enrolled, participants with high levels of psychiatric symptoms were oversampled for follow-up. Data analysis was performed from July 28, 2015, to June 8, 2016. Latent trajectories, estimated using growth mixture modeling, of past-year mood/anxiety disorder (ie, major depressive episode, phobias, panic, generalized anxiety disorder, and obsessive-compulsive disorder), substance use disorder (ie, drug abuse or dependence and alcohol abuse or dependence), and any mental disorder (ie, any of the above) assessed during in-person semistructured interviews at each wave. Diagnoses were based on DSM-III, DSM-III-R, and DSM-IV criteria. Of the 591 participants at baseline, 299 (50.6%) were female. Persistent mental health disorder across multiple study waves was rare. Among 252 individuals (42.6%) who participated in all 7 study waves, only 1.2% met criteria for disorder every time. Growth mixture modeling identified 3 classes of risk for any disorder across adulthood: low (estimated prevalence, 40.0%; 95% CI, -8.7% to 88

A Risk-Analysis Approach to Implementing Web-Based Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ricketts, Chris; Zakrzewski, Stan

2005-01-01

Computer-Based Assessment is a risky business. This paper proposes the use of a model for web-based assessment systems that identifies pedagogic, operational, technical (non web-based), web-based and financial risks. The strategies and procedures for risk elimination or reduction arise from risk analysis and management and are the means by which…

Musculoskeletal pain and related risks in skydivers: a population-based survey.

PubMed

Nilsson, Jenny; Fridén, Cecilia; Burén, Viktoria; Westman, Anton; Lindholm, Peter; Ang, Björn O

2013-10-01

Sport parachuting from aircraft (skydiving) is a major aerial activity in which parachutists are subject to decelerating forces during parachute opening shock (POS), possibly as much as 3-5 G. While traumatic incidents related to POS have been reported, epidemiological data on musculoskeletal pain among skydivers is absent in the literature. The aim was therefore to examine the prevalence of self-rated musculoskeletal pain related to POS in a skydiver population and elicit related risk factors. There were 658 Swedish sport skydivers who completed a structured web-based questionnaire (70% response rate; email invitation) validated for use in skydivers. The questionnaire concerned individual and skydiving-related risk indicators, and musculoskeletal pain experiences. Multiple regression analysis was used to estimate the relationship between risk indicators and musculoskeletal pain related to POS. The 12-mo prevalence of musculoskeletal pain related to POS was highest for the neck region, 25% (95% CI = 21.4-28.2). Other upper-body regions were as follows: shoulder 16% thoracic spine 10%, and lower back 18%. A high number of parachute jumps in the last 12 mo, i.e., 30-90 jumps (RR = 1.7, 95% CI = 1.1-2.7), > 90 jumps (RR = 2.1, 95% CI = 1.3-3.4), and a high main parachute wing-loading, i.e., > 1.4 lb/ft2 (RR = 1.7, 95% CI = 1.1-2.6) were independent risk factors. Neck pain related to POS was common among skydivers. A high number of parachute jumps the last 12 mo and high wing-loading emerged as risk factors, suggesting that highly active skydivers using small canopies may be at risk. Studies on biomechanics under POS are suggested.

A Cost Analysis of a Pancreatic Cancer Screening Protocol in High-Risk Populations

PubMed Central

Bruenderman, Elizabeth; Martin, Robert CG

2016-01-01

Background Pancreatic cancer is the 4th leading cause of cancer death in the U.S. A screening protocol is needed to catch early stage, resectable disease. This study suggests a protocol for high-risk individuals and assesses the cost in the context of the Affordable Care Act. Methods Medicare and national average pricing were used for cost analysis of a protocol using MRI/MRCP biannually in high-risk groups. Results: ‘ Costs per year of life added’ based on Medicare and national average costs, respectively, are: $638.62 and $2542.37 for Peutz-Jehgers Syndrome, $945.33 and $3763.44 for Hereditary Pancreatitis, $1141.77 and $4545.45 for Familial Pancreatic Cancer and p16-Leiden mutations, and $356.42 and $1418.92 for new-onset diabetes over age 50 with weight loss or smoking. Conclusion A screening program using MRI/MRCP is affordable in high-risk populations. The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force must reevaluate its pancreatic cancer screening guidelines to make screening more cost-effective for the individual. PMID:26003200

GEO Collisional Risk Assessment Based on Analysis of NASA-WISE Data and Modeling

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-10-18

GEO Collisional Risk Assessment Based on Analysis of NASA -WISE Data and Modeling Jeremy Murray Krezan1, Samantha Howard1, Phan D. Dao1, Derek...Surka2 1AFRL Space Vehicles Directorate,2Applied Technology Associates Incorporated From December 2009 through 2011 the NASA Wide-Field Infrared...of known debris. The NASA -WISE GEO belt debris population adds potentially thousands previously uncataloged objects. This paper describes

Age-structured mark-recapture analysis: A virtual-population-analysis-based model for analyzing age-structured capture-recapture data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coggins, L.G.; Pine, William E.; Walters, C.J.; Martell, S.J.D.

2006-01-01

We present a new model to estimate capture probabilities, survival, abundance, and recruitment using traditional Jolly-Seber capture-recapture methods within a standard fisheries virtual population analysis framework. This approach compares the numbers of marked and unmarked fish at age captured in each year of sampling with predictions based on estimated vulnerabilities and abundance in a likelihood function. Recruitment to the earliest age at which fish can be tagged is estimated by using a virtual population analysis method to back-calculate the expected numbers of unmarked fish at risk of capture. By using information from both marked and unmarked animals in a standard fisheries age structure framework, this approach is well suited to the sparse data situations common in long-term capture-recapture programs with variable sampling effort. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2006.

The inherited risk of retained placenta: a population based cohort study.

PubMed

Endler, M; Cnattingius, S; Granfors, M; Wikström, A-K

2018-05-01

To investigate whether retained placenta in the first generation is associated with an increased risk of retained placenta in the second generation. Population-based cohort study. Sweden. Using linked generational data from the Swedish Medical Birth Register 1973-2012, we identified 494 000 second-generation births with information on the birth of the mother (first-generation index birth). For 292 897 of these births there was information also on the birth of the father. Risk of retained placenta in the second generation was calculated as adjusted odds ratios (aOR) by unconditional logistic regression with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) according to whether retained placenta occurred in a first generation birth or not. Retained placenta in the second generation. The risk of retained placenta in a second-generation birth was increased if retained placenta had occurred at the mother's own birth (aOR 1.66, 95% CI 1.52-1.82), at the birth of one of her siblings (aOR 1.58, 95% CI 1.43-1.76) or both (aOR 2.75, 95% CI 2.18-3.46). The risk was slightly increased if retained placenta had occurred at the birth of the father (aOR 1.23, 95% CI 1.07-1.41). For preterm births in both generations, the risk of retained placenta in the second generation was increased six-fold if retained placenta had occurred at the mother's birth (OR 6.55, 95% CI 2.68-16.02). There is an intergenerational recurrence of retained placenta on the maternal and most likely also on the paternal side. The recurrence risk seems strongest in preterm pregnancies. A population-based cohort study suggests that there is an intergenerational recurrence of retained placenta. © 2017 Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

Occupational risk and chronic kidney disease: a population-based study in the United States adult population.

PubMed

Rubinstein, Sofia; Wang, Chengwei; Qu, Wenchun

2013-01-01

Previous studies on occupational risk for chronic kidney disease (CKD) have analyzed a limited range of occupations and focused on nephrotoxins. The primary purpose of this study was to examine the relative risk for the occurrence of CKD between different occupations in the US adult population. This was a population-based survey study of 91,340 participants in the US, who completed the National Health Interview Survey, 2004 through 2008. The outcome variable, CKD, was defined as having weakening/failing kidneys in the past 12 months, as diagnosed by a physician. The predictor variable, occupation, was obtained using the census occupational codes, regrouped according to North American Industrial Classification System. After controlling for age, gender, hypertension, and education, and with the category Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations as a reference group, the likelihood of developing CKD was 4.3 times higher in respondents working in Building, Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations, 4.4 times higher in Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations, 4.7 times higher in Transportation and Material Moving Occupations and in Computer and Mathematical Occupations, 4.8 times higher in Production Occupations, 5.3 times higher in Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations, and 6.1 times higher in Healthcare Support Occupations and in Legal Occupations. This study identified occupation groups in US adult population with increased risk for CKD. Alleviation of workplace stress is suggested as a goal for behavioral intervention in high-risk occupations.

Impact of model-based risk analysis for liver surgery planning.

PubMed

Hansen, C; Zidowitz, S; Preim, B; Stavrou, G; Oldhafer, K J; Hahn, H K

2014-05-01

A model-based risk analysis for oncologic liver surgery was described in previous work (Preim et al. in Proceedings of international symposium on computer assisted radiology and surgery (CARS), Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp. 353–358, 2002; Hansen et al. Int I Comput Assist Radiol Surg 4(5):469–474, 2009). In this paper, we present an evaluation of this method. To prove whether and how the risk analysis facilitates the process of liver surgery planning, an explorative user study with 10 liver experts was conducted. The purpose was to compare and analyze their decision-making. The results of the study show that model-based risk analysis enhances the awareness of surgical risk in the planning stage. Participants preferred smaller resection volumes and agreed more on the safety margins’ width in case the risk analysis was available. In addition, time to complete the planning task and confidence of participants were not increased when using the risk analysis. This work shows that the applied model-based risk analysis may influence important planning decisions in liver surgery. It lays a basis for further clinical evaluations and points out important fields for future research.

Choline metabolism and risk of breast cancer in a population-based study

PubMed Central

Xu, Xinran; Gammon, Marilie D.; Zeisel, Steven H.; Lee, Yin Leng; Wetmur, James G.; Teitelbaum, Susan L.; Bradshaw, Patrick T.; Neugut, Alfred I.; Santella, Regina M.; Chen, Jia

2008-01-01

Choline is an essential nutrient required for methyl group metabolism, but its role in carcinogenesis and tumor progression is not well understood. By utilizing a population-based study of 1508 cases and 1556 controls, we investigated the associations of dietary intake of choline and two related micronutrients, methionine and betaine, and risk of breast cancer. The highest quintile of choline consumption was associated with a lower risk of breast cancer [odds ratio (OR): 0.76; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.58−1.00] compared with the lowest quintile. Two putatively functional single nucleotide polymorphisms of cholinemetabolizing genes, PEMT −774G>C (rs12325817) and CHDH +432G>T (rs12676), were also found be related to breast cancer risk. Compared with the PEMT GG genotype, the variant CC genotype was associated with an increased risk of breast cancer (OR: 1.30; 95% CI: 1.01−1.67). The CHDH minor T allele was also associated with an increased risk (OR: 1.19; 95% CI: 1.00−1.41) compared with the major G allele. The BHMT rs3733890 polymorphism was also examined but was found not to be associated with breast cancer risk. We observed a significant interaction between dietary betaine intake and the PEMT rs7926 polymorphism (Pinteraction=0.04). Our findings suggest that choline metabolism may play an important role in breast cancer etiology.—Xu, X., Gammon, M. D., Zeisel, S. H., Lee, Y. L., Wetmur, J. G., Teitelbaum, S. L., Bradshaw, P. T., Neugut, A. I., Santella, R. M., Chen, J. Choline metabolism and risk of breast cancer in a population-based study. PMID:18230680

Associations between behavioural risk factors and overweight and obesity among adults in population-based samples from 31 countries.

PubMed

Pengpid, Supa; Peltzer, Karl

Concern about overweight and obesity is growing worldwide, and more research to examine behaviours associated with the risk for increased weight in adult populations is needed. The aim of this study was to estimate associations between behavioural risk factors and overweight and obesity among adults in nationally representative population samples from 20 countries in Europe, 8 countries in Asia, Australia, Chile and USA. This secondary analysis is based on the International Social Survey Program (ISSP), 2011-2013, Health and Health Care Module. In a cross-sectional population-based survey (N=48,741) (mean age 46.6 years, SD=17.4, age range 15-102 years) simple or multi-stage stratified random sampling was used, yielding representative samples of the adult population of respective countries. Body Mass Index was assessed by self-reported height and weight. Correlates were risk behaviours for chronic disease (smoking status, alcohol intake, consumption of fruits and vegetable (=FV), and physical activity). Overall, for all 31 countries the prevalence of overweight or obesity was 44.1%, 31.7% overweight and 12.4% obese. In adjusted logistic regression models, among men and among women ex-smoking was positively associated with both overweight and obesity, while light or moderate smoking overall and among men were inversely related with obesity. Moderate alcohol use was positively associated with both overweight and obesity, while heavy alcohol use was negatively associated with overweight. The daily consumption of FV was found to be protective from both overweight and obesity, overall and for men but not for women. Physical activity was positively associated with overweight but not obesity. Some risk behaviours for chronic disease appear to be associated with overweight and obesity among adults. Interventions targeting these risk behaviours may have the potential to reduce weight. Copyright © 2016 Asia Oceania Association for the Study of Obesity. Published by Elsevier

[Health risks in different living circumstances of mothers. Analyses based on a population study].

PubMed

Sperlich, Stefanie

2014-12-01

The objective of this study was to determine the living circumstances ('Lebenslagen') in mothers which are associated with elevated health risks. Data were derived from a cross-sectional population based sample of German women (n = 3129) with underage children. By means of a two-step cluster analysis ten different maternal living circumstances were assessed which proved to be distinct with respect to indicators of socioeconomic position, employment status and family-related factors. Out of the ten living circumstances, one could be attributed to higher socioeconomic status (SES), while five were assigned to a middle SES and four to a lower SES. In line with previous findings, mothers with a high SES predominantly showed the best health while mothers with a low SES tended to be at higher health risk with respect to subjective health, mental health (anxiety and depression), obesity and smoking. However, there were important health differences between the different living circumstances within the middle and lower SES. In addition, varying health risks were found among different living circumstances of single mothers, pointing to the significance of family and job-related living conditions in establishing health risks. With this exploratory analysis strategy small-scale living conditions could be detected which were associated with specific health risks. This approach seemed particularly suitable to provide a more precise definition of target groups for health promotion. The findings encourage a more exrensive application of the concept of living conditions in medical sociology research as well as health monitoring.

Relationship of Zolpidem and Cancer Risk: A Taiwanese Population-Based Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Kao, Chia-Hung; Sun, Li-Min; Liang, Ji-An; Chang, Shih-Ni; Sung, Fung-Chang; Muo, Chih-Hsin

2012-01-01

Objective To evaluate the relationship between the use of zolpidem and subsequent cancer risk in Taiwanese patients. Methods We used data from the National Health Insurance system of Taiwan to investigate whether use of zolpidem was related to cancer risk. For the study cohort, we identified 14,950 patients who had received a first prescription for zolpidem from January 1, 1998, through December 31, 2000. For each zolpidem user, we selected randomly 4 comparison patients without a history of using zolpidem who were frequency-matched by sex, age, and year of the index date. Incidence rates of all cancers and selected site-specific cancers were measured by the end of 2009, and related hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the cancer were measured as well. Results The risk of developing any cancer was greater in patients using zolpidem than in nonusers (HR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.55-1.82). The stratified analysis showed that the overall HR for high-dosage zolpidem (≥300 mg/y) was 2.38. The site-specific cancer risk was the highest for oral cancer (HR, 2.36; 95% CI, 1.57-3.56), followed by kidney cancer, esophageal cancer, breast cancer, liver cancer, lung cancer, and bladder cancer (HR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.06-2.41). Men were at higher risk than women. Conclusion This population-based study revealed some unexpected findings, suggesting that the use of zolpidem may be associated with an increased risk of subsequent cancer. Further large-scale and in-depth investigations in this area are warranted. PMID:22560522

Spatio-temporal earthquake risk assessment for the Lisbon Metropolitan Area - A contribution to improving standard methods of population exposure and vulnerability analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freire, Sérgio; Aubrecht, Christoph

2010-05-01

The recent 7.0 M earthquake that caused severe damage and destruction in parts of Haiti struck close to 5 PM (local time), at a moment when many people were not in their residences, instead being in their workplaces, schools, or churches. Community vulnerability assessment to seismic hazard relying solely on the location and density of resident-based census population, as is commonly the case, would grossly misrepresent the real situation. In particular in the context of global (climate) change, risk analysis is a research field increasingly gaining in importance whereas risk is usually defined as a function of hazard probability and vulnerability. Assessment and mapping of human vulnerability has however generally been lagging behind hazard analysis efforts. Central to the concept of vulnerability is the issue of human exposure. Analysis of exposure is often spatially tied to administrative units or reference objects such as buildings, spanning scales from the regional level to local studies for small areas. Due to human activities and mobility, the spatial distribution of population is time-dependent, especially in metropolitan areas. Accurately estimating population exposure is a key component of catastrophe loss modeling, one element of effective risk analysis and emergency management. Therefore, accounting for the spatio-temporal dynamics of human vulnerability correlates with recent recommendations to improve vulnerability analyses. Earthquakes are the prototype for a major disaster, being low-probability, rapid-onset, high-consequence events. Lisbon, Portugal, is subject to a high risk of earthquake, which can strike at any day and time, as confirmed by modern history (e.g. December 2009). The recently-approved Special Emergency and Civil Protection Plan (PEERS) is based on a Seismic Intensity map, and only contemplates resident population from the census as proxy for human exposure. In the present work we map and analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of

The 10-year Absolute Risk of Cardiovascular (CV) Events in Northern Iran: a Population Based Study

PubMed Central

Motamed, Nima; Mardanshahi, Alireza; Saravi, Benyamin Mohseni; Siamian, Hasan; Maadi, Mansooreh; Zamani, Farhad

2015-01-01

Background: The present study was conducted to estimate 10-year cardiovascular disease events (CVD) risk using three instruments in northern Iran. Material and methods: Baseline data of 3201 participants 40-79 of a population based cohort which was conducted in Northern Iran were analyzed. Framingham risk score (FRS), World Health Organization (WHO) risk prediction charts and American college of cardiovascular / American heart association (ACC/AHA) tool were applied to assess 10-year CVD events risk. The agreement values between the risk assessment instruments were determined using the kappa statistics. Results: Our study estimated 53.5%of male population aged 40-79 had a 10 –year risk of CVD events≥10% based on ACC/AHA approach, 48.9% based on FRS and 11.8% based on WHO risk charts. A 10 –year risk≥10% was estimated among 20.1% of women using the ACC/AHA approach, 11.9%using FRS and 5.7%using WHO tool. ACC/AHA and Framingham tools had closest agreement in the estimation of 10-year risk≥10% (κ=0.7757) in meanwhile ACC/AHA and WHO approaches displayed highest agreement (κ=0.6123) in women. Conclusion: Different estimations of 10-year risk of CVD event were provided by ACC/AHA, FRS and WHO approaches. PMID:26236160

Ontology-based specification, identification and analysis of perioperative risks.

PubMed

Uciteli, Alexandr; Neumann, Juliane; Tahar, Kais; Saleh, Kutaiba; Stucke, Stephan; Faulbrück-Röhr, Sebastian; Kaeding, André; Specht, Martin; Schmidt, Tobias; Neumuth, Thomas; Besting, Andreas; Stegemann, Dominik; Portheine, Frank; Herre, Heinrich

2017-09-06

Medical personnel in hospitals often works under great physical and mental strain. In medical decision-making, errors can never be completely ruled out. Several studies have shown that between 50 and 60% of adverse events could have been avoided through better organization, more attention or more effective security procedures. Critical situations especially arise during interdisciplinary collaboration and the use of complex medical technology, for example during surgical interventions and in perioperative settings (the period of time before, during and after surgical intervention). In this paper, we present an ontology and an ontology-based software system, which can identify risks across medical processes and supports the avoidance of errors in particular in the perioperative setting. We developed a practicable definition of the risk notion, which is easily understandable by the medical staff and is usable for the software tools. Based on this definition, we developed a Risk Identification Ontology (RIO) and used it for the specification and the identification of perioperative risks. An agent system was developed, which gathers risk-relevant data during the whole perioperative treatment process from various sources and provides it for risk identification and analysis in a centralized fashion. The results of such an analysis are provided to the medical personnel in form of context-sensitive hints and alerts. For the identification of the ontologically specified risks, we developed an ontology-based software module, called Ontology-based Risk Detector (OntoRiDe). About 20 risks relating to cochlear implantation (CI) have already been implemented. Comprehensive testing has indicated the correctness of the data acquisition, risk identification and analysis components, as well as the web-based visualization of results.

Occupational risk factors for brain cancer: a population-based case-control study in Iowa.

PubMed

Zheng, T; Cantor, K P; Zhang, Y; Keim, S; Lynch, C F

2001-04-01

A number of occupations and industries have been inconsistently associated with the risk of brain cancer. To further explore possible relationships, we conducted a population-based case-control study of brain glioma in the state of Iowa, involving 375 histologically confirmed incident cases and 2434 population-based controls. Among men, the industries and/or occupations that had a significantly increased risk for employment of more than 10 years included roofing, siding, and sheet metalworking; newspaper work; rubber and plastics products, particularly tires and inner tubes; miscellaneous manufacturing industries; wholesale trade of durable goods, grain, and field beans; cleaning and building service occupations; miscellaneous mechanics and repairers; and janitors and cleaners. Subjects who worked in plumbing, heating, and air conditioning; electrical services; gasoline service stations; and military occupations also experienced a significantly increased risk. Among women, significant excess risk was observed for occupations in agricultural services and farming, apparel and textile products, electrical and electronic equipment manufacturing, various retail sales, record-keeping, and restaurant service. Workers in industries with a potential for gasoline or motor exhaust exposures experienced a non-significant excess risk of brain glioma.

Age distribution and age-related outcomes of olfactory neuroblastoma: a population-based analysis.

PubMed

Yin, Zhenzhen; Wang, Youyou; Wu, Yuemei; Zhang, Ximei; Wang, Fengming; Wang, Peiguo; Tao, Zhen; Yuan, Zhiyong

2018-01-01

The objective of the study was to describe the age distribution and to evaluate the role of prognostic value of age on survival in patients diagnosed with olfactory neuroblastoma (ONB). A population-based retrospective analysis was conducted. The population-based study of patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) tumor registry, who were diagnosed with ONB from 1973 to 2014, were retrospectively analyzed. The cohort included 876 patients with a median age of 54 years. There was a unimodal distribution of age and ONBs most frequently occurred in the fifth to sixth decades of life. Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) rates of 69% and 78% at 5 years. Multivariable Cox regression analysis showed that age, SEER stage, and surgery were independent prognostic factors for CSS. The risk of overall death and cancer-specific death increased 3.1% and 1.6% per year, respectively. Patients aged >60 years presented significantly poor OS and CSS compared with patients aged ≤60 years, even in patients with loco-regional disease or in those treated with surgery. This study highlights the growing evidence that there is a unimodal age distribution of ONB and that age is an important adverse prognostic factor.

Risk of colorectal cancer and small bowel adenocarcinoma in Crohn's disease: a population-based study from western Hungary 1977-2008.

PubMed

Lakatos, Peter Laszlo; David, Gyula; Pandur, Tunde; Erdelyi, Zsuzsanna; Mester, Gabor; Balogh, Mihaly; Szipocs, Istvan; Molnar, Csaba; Komaromi, Erzsebet; Kiss, Lajos S; Lakatos, Laszlo

2011-04-01

Limited data are available on the incidence and predictors of colorectal (CRC) and small bowel adenocarcinoma (SBA) in patients with Crohn's disease (CD) from population-based cohorts. Since data are completely missing from Eastern Europe, our aim was to analyze the incidence and risk factors of CD associated CRC and SBA in the population-based, Veszprem province database, which included incident patients diagnosed between January 1, 1977 and December 31, 2008. The data of 506 incident CD patients were analyzed (age-at-diagnosis: 31.5, SD: 13.8 years). Both hospital and outpatient records were collected and comprehensively reviewed. CRC was diagnosed in five patients (5/5758 person-year-duration) during follow-up, while no patients developed SBA in this cohort. Standardized incidence ratio (SIR) of CRC was not increased overall with five cases observed vs. 5.02 expected (SIR: 0.99, 95% CI: 0.41-2.39); however, there was a tendency for increased incidence in males (five cases observed vs. 2.56 expected; SIR: 1.95, 95% CI: 0.81-4.70). Age at onset of CD (p<0.001), male gender (p=0.022) and stenosing disease behavior at diagnosis (p<0.001) but not disease location were identified as risk factors for developing CRC in univariate analysis and Kaplan-Meier analysis. The cumulative risk for developing CRC after a disease duration of 20 years was 1.1% (95% CI: 0.6-1.7%). The incidence of CRC and SBA was not increased in this population-based CD cohort. Age at onset of CD, male gender and stenosing disease behavior at diagnosis were identified as risk factors of CRC. Copyright © 2010 European Crohn's and Colitis Organisation. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Exposure to genocide and the risk of schizophrenia: a population-based study.

PubMed

Levine, S Z; Levav, I; Goldberg, Y; Pugachova, I; Becher, Y; Yoffe, R

2016-03-01

No evidence exists on the association between genocide and the incidence of schizophrenia. This study aims to identify critical periods of exposure to genocide on the risk of schizophrenia. This population-based study comprised of all subjects born in European nations where the Holocaust occurred from 1928 to 1945, who immigrated to Israel by 1965 and were indexed in the Population Register (N = 113 932). Subjects were followed for schizophrenia disorder in the National Psychiatric Case Registry from 1950 to 2014. The population was disaggregated to compare groups that immigrated before (indirect exposure: n = 8886, 7.8%) or after (direct exposure: n = 105 046, 92.2%) the Nazi or fascist era of persecutions began. The latter group was further disaggregated to examine likely initial prenatal or postnatal genocide exposures. Cox regression modelling was computed to compare the risk of schizophrenia between the groups, adjusting for confounders. The likely direct group was at a statistically (p < 0.05) greater risk of schizophrenia (hazard ratio = 1.27, 95% confidence interval 1.06-1.51) than the indirect group. Also, the likely combined in utero and postnatal, and late postnatal (over age 2 years) exposure subgroups were statistically at greater risk of schizophrenia than the indirect group (p < 0.05). The likely in utero only and early postnatal (up to age 2 years) exposure subgroups compared with the indirect exposure group did not significantly differ. These results were replicated across three sensitivity analyses. This study showed that genocide exposure elevated the risk of schizophrenia, and identified in utero and postnatal (combined) and late postnatal (age over 2 years) exposures as critical periods of risk.

Population-based risk of complications following transthoracic needle lung biopsy of a pulmonary nodule

PubMed Central

Wiener, Renda Soylemez; Schwartz, Lisa M.; Woloshin, Steven; Welch, H. Gilbert

2011-01-01

Background Because pulmonary nodules are found in up to 25% of patients undergoing chest computed tomography, the question of whether to biopsy is becoming increasingly common. Data on complications following transthoracic needle lung biopsy are limited to case series from selected institutions. Objective To determine population-based estimates of risks of complications following transthoracic needle biopsy of a pulmonary nodule. Design Cross-sectional analysis. Setting The 2006 Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project’s State Ambulatory Surgery Databases and State Inpatient Databases for California, Florida, Michigan, and New York. Patients 15,865 adults who underwent transthoracic needle biopsy of a pulmonary nodule. Measurements Percent of biopsies complicated by hemorrhage, any pneumothorax, and pneumothorax requiring chest tube, and adjusted odds ratios for these complications associated with various biopsy characteristics, calculated using multivariable population-averaged generalized estimating equations. Results Although hemorrhage was rare, complicating 1.0% (95% CI 0.9-1.2%) of biopsies, 17.8% (95% CI 11.8-23.8%) of patients with hemorrhage required a blood transfusion. By contrast, the risk of any pneumothorax was 15.0% (95% CI 14.0-16.0%), and 6.6% (95% CI 6.0-7.2%) of all biopsies resulted in a pneumothorax requiring chest tube. Compared to patients without complications, those who experienced hemorrhage or pneumothorax requiring chest tube had longer lengths of stay (p<0.001) and were more likely to develop respiratory failure requiring mechanical ventilation (p=0.02). Patients aged 60-69 years (as opposed to younger or older patients), smokers, and those with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease had higher risk of complications. Limitations Estimated risks may be inaccurate if coding of complications is incomplete. The databases analyzed contain little clinical detail (e.g., nodule characteristics, biopsy pathology) and cannot determine whether

Association between hepatitis B virus/hepatitis C virus infection and primary hepatocellular carcinoma risk: A meta-analysis based on Chinese population.

PubMed

Li, Libo; Lan, Xiaolin

2016-12-01

To assess the relationship between hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV), and HBV/HCV double infection and hepatocellular carcinoma risk in Chinese population. The databases of PubMed and CNKI were electronic searched by reviewers according to the searching words of HBV, HCV, and hepatocellular carcinoma. The related case-control studies or cohort studies were included. The association between virus infection and hepatocellular carcinoma risk was demonstrated by odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI). The data were pooled by fixed or random effects model according to the statistical heterogeneity. The publication bias was assessed by Begg's funnel plot and Egger's linear regression test. Finally, 13 publications were included in this meta-analysis. For significant statistical heterogeneity (I2 = 99.8%,P = 0.00), the OR was pooled by random effects model. The pooled results showed that HBV infection can significantly increase the risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (OR = 58.01, 95% CI: 44.27-71.75); statistical heterogeneity analysis showed that significant heterogeneity existed in evaluation of HCV infection and hepatocellular carcinoma risk across the included 13 studies I2 = 77.78%, P = 0.00). The OR was pooled by random effects model. The pooled results showed that HCV infection can significantly increase the risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (OR = 2.34, 95% CI: 1.20-3.47); significant heterogeneity did not exist in evaluation HBV/HCV double infection and hepatocellular carcinoma risk for the included 13 studies (I2 = 0.00%,P = 0.80). The OR was pooled by fixed effects model. The pooled results showed that HBV/HCV double infection can significantly increase the risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (OR = 11.39, 95% CI: 4.58-18.20). No publication bias was found in the aspects of HBV, HCV, and HBV/HCV double infection and hepatocellular carcinoma. For Chinese population, HBV, HCV or HBV/HCV double infection can

Risk for myocardial infarction and stroke after community-acquired bacteremia: a 20-year population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Dalager-Pedersen, Michael; Søgaard, Mette; Schønheyder, Henrik Carl; Nielsen, Henrik; Thomsen, Reimar Wernich

2014-04-01

Infections may trigger acute cardiovascular events, but the risk after community-acquired bacteremia is unknown. We assessed the risk for acute myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke within 1 year of community-acquired bacteremia. This population-based cohort study was conducted in Northern Denmark. We included 4389 hospitalized medical patients with positive blood cultures obtained on the day of admission. Patients hospitalized with bacteremia were matched with up to 10 general population controls and up to 5 acutely admitted nonbacteremic controls, matched on age, sex, and calendar time. All incident events of myocardial infarction and stroke during the following 365 days were ascertained from population-based healthcare databases. Multivariable regression analyses were used to assess relative risks with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for myocardial infarction and stroke among bacteremia patients and their controls. The risk for myocardial infarction or stroke was greatly increased within 30 days of community-acquired bacteremia: 3.6% versus 0.2% among population controls (adjusted relative risk, 20.86; 95% CI, 15.38-28.29) and 1.7% among hospitalized controls (adjusted relative risk, 2.18; 95% CI, 1.80-2.65). The risks for myocardial infarction or stroke remained modestly increased from 31 to 180 days after bacteremia in comparison with population controls (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.64; 95% CI, 1.18-2.27), but not versus hospitalized controls (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.69-1.32). No differences in cardiovascular risk were seen after >6 months. Increased 30-day risks were consistently found for a variety of etiologic agents and infectious foci. Community-acquired bacteremia is associated with increased short-term risk of myocardial infarction and stroke.

Holocaust exposure and subsequent suicide risk: a population-based study.

PubMed

Bursztein Lipsicas, Cendrine; Levav, Itzhak; Levine, Stephen Z

2017-03-01

To examine the association between the extent of genocide exposure and subsequent suicide risk among Holocaust survivors. Persons born in Holocaust-exposed European countries during the years 1922-1945 that immigrated to Israel by 1965 were identified in the Population Registry (N = 209,429), and followed up for suicide (1950-2014). They were divided into three groups based on likely exposure to Nazi persecution: those who immigrated before (indirect; n = 20,229; 10%), during (partial direct; n = 17,189; 8%), and after (full direct; n = 172,061; 82%) World War II. Groups were contrasted for suicide risk, accounting for the extent of genocide in their respective countries of origin, high (>70%) or lower levels (<50%). Cox model survival analyses were computed examining calendar year at suicide. Sensitivity analyses were recomputed for two additional suicide-associated variables (age and years since immigration) for each exposure group. All analyses were adjusted for confounders. Survival analysis showed that compared to the indirect exposure group, the partial direct exposure group from countries with high genocide level had a statistically significant (P < .05) increased suicide risk for the main outcome (calendar year: HR 1.78, 95% CI 1.09, 2.90). This effect significantly (P < .05) replicated in two sensitivity analyses for countries with higher relative levels of genocide (age: HR 1.77, 95% CI 1.09, 2.89; years since immigration: HR 1.85, 95% CI 1.14, 3.02). The full direct exposure group was not at significant suicide risk compared to the indirect exposure group. Suicide associations for groups from countries with relative lower level of genocide were not statistically significant. This study partly converges with findings identifying Holocaust survivors (full direct exposure) as a resilient group. A tentative mechanism for higher vulnerability to suicide risk of the partial direct exposure group from countries with higher genocide exposure includes

Population heterogeneity in the salience of multiple risk factors for adolescent delinquency.

PubMed

Lanza, Stephanie T; Cooper, Brittany R; Bray, Bethany C

2014-03-01

To present mixture regression analysis as an alternative to more standard regression analysis for predicting adolescent delinquency. We demonstrate how mixture regression analysis allows for the identification of population subgroups defined by the salience of multiple risk factors. We identified population subgroups (i.e., latent classes) of individuals based on their coefficients in a regression model predicting adolescent delinquency from eight previously established risk indices drawn from the community, school, family, peer, and individual levels. The study included N = 37,763 10th-grade adolescents who participated in the Communities That Care Youth Survey. Standard, zero-inflated, and mixture Poisson and negative binomial regression models were considered. Standard and mixture negative binomial regression models were selected as optimal. The five-class regression model was interpreted based on the class-specific regression coefficients, indicating that risk factors had varying salience across classes of adolescents. Standard regression showed that all risk factors were significantly associated with delinquency. Mixture regression provided more nuanced information, suggesting a unique set of risk factors that were salient for different subgroups of adolescents. Implications for the design of subgroup-specific interventions are discussed. Copyright © 2014 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A literature review of the cardiovascular risk-assessment tools: applicability among Asian population.

PubMed

Liau, Siow Yen; Mohamed Izham, M I; Hassali, M A; Shafie, A A

2010-01-01

Cardiovascular diseases, the main causes of hospitalisations and death globally, have put an enormous economic burden on the healthcare system. Several risk factors are associated with the occurrence of cardiovascular events. At the heart of efficient prevention of cardiovascular disease is the concept of risk assessment. This paper aims to review the available cardiovascular risk-assessment tools and its applicability in predicting cardiovascular risk among Asian populations. A systematic search was performed using keywords as MeSH and Boolean terms. A total of 25 risk-assessment tools were identified. Of these, only two risk-assessment tools (8%) were derived from an Asian population. These risk-assessment tools differ in various ways, including characteristics of the derivation sample, type of study, time frame of follow-up, end points, statistical analysis and risk factors included. Very few cardiovascular risk-assessment tools were developed in Asian populations. In order to accurately predict the cardiovascular risk of our population, there is a need to develop a risk-assessment tool based on local epidemiological data.

Familial Risk of Biliary Tract Cancers: A Population-Based Study in Utah.

PubMed

Samadder, N Jewel; Smith, Ken Robert; Wong, Jathine; Hanson, Heidi; Boucher, Kenneth; Burt, Randall W; Charlton, Michael; Byrne, Kathryn R; Gallegos-Orozco, Juan F; Koptiuch, Cathryn; Curtin, Karen

2016-12-01

Biliary tract cancers (BTC) including, cholangiocarcinoma (CC) and gallbladder cancer (GBC), are rare and highly fatal malignancies. The etiology and inherited susceptibility of both malignancies are poorly understood. We quantified the risk of BTC in first-degree (FDR), second-degree (SDR), and first cousin (FC) relatives of individuals with BTC, stratified by tumor subsite. BTC diagnosed between 1980 and 2011 were identified from the Utah Cancer Registry and linked to pedigrees from the Utah Population Database. Age- and gender-matched BTC-free controls were selected to form the comparison group for determining BTC risk in relatives using Cox regression analysis. Of the 1302 index patients diagnosed with BTC, 550 (42.2 %) were located in the gallbladder and 752 (57.8 %) were cholangiocarcinomas. There was no elevated risk of BTC (all subsites combined) in FDRs (HR 0.94, 95 % CI 0.29-3.0), SDRs (HR 0.25, 95 % CI 0.06-1.03), and FCs (HR 0.96, 95 % CI 0.61-1.51) of BTC cases compared to cancer-free controls. Similarly, no increased familial risk of GBC or CC was found in relatives of BTC patients stratified by tumor subsite compared to relatives of controls. Relatives of BTC patients are not at an increased risk of GBC or CC in a statewide population. This suggests that biliary tract cancer risk is not associated with a familial predisposition and may be mitigated more strongly by environmental modifiers.

Worry about breast cancer recurrence: a population-based analysis.

PubMed

Tewari, Apoorva; Chagpar, Anees B

2014-07-01

As more patients with breast cancer survive treatment, the importance of their long-term quality of life is increasing. One important concern for many survivors is fear of recurrence. To better understand worry about recurrence, we conducted a population-based statistical analysis. The National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) is the largest annual source of health information for the U.S. population. We obtained data from the 2010 survey, which asked breast cancer survivors about their fear of recurrence and quality of life. Data were analyzed using SUDAAN software. The 2010 NHIS sample represented 2,668,697 breast cancer survivors. On univariate analysis, worry about recurrence was correlated with current age (P = 0.03) and radiation therapy (P = 0.04). Worry was strongly associated with perceived risk of recurrence (P < 0.01) and decreased overall quality of life (P < 0.01) as well as lower self-reported physical (P < 0.01) and mental (P < 0.01) health and poor satisfaction with social activities and relationships (P < 0.01). On multivariate analysis, worry was not independently associated with decreased quality of life (P = 0.09). However, those who "always worried" about recurrence had a lower quality of life (odds ratio, 0.06; 95% confidence interval, 0.01 to 0.45). Worry about recurrence among breast cancer survivors is associated with age and radiation therapy and is correlated with self-reported physical health, mental health, social relationships, and overall quality of life. It is a significant predictor of decreased quality of life in those who worry the most. Screening for worry about recurrence is an important measure for the improvement of quality of life among breast cancer survivors.

Risk-based planning analysis for a single levee

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hui, Rui; Jachens, Elizabeth; Lund, Jay

2016-04-01

Traditional risk-based analysis for levee planning focuses primarily on overtopping failure. Although many levees fail before overtopping, few planning studies explicitly include intermediate geotechnical failures in flood risk analysis. This study develops a risk-based model for two simplified levee failure modes: overtopping failure and overall intermediate geotechnical failure from through-seepage, determined by the levee cross section represented by levee height and crown width. Overtopping failure is based only on water level and levee height, while through-seepage failure depends on many geotechnical factors as well, mathematically represented here as a function of levee crown width using levee fragility curves developed from professional judgment or analysis. These levee planning decisions are optimized to minimize the annual expected total cost, which sums expected (residual) annual flood damage and annualized construction costs. Applicability of this optimization approach to planning new levees or upgrading existing levees is demonstrated preliminarily for a levee on a small river protecting agricultural land, and a major levee on a large river protecting a more valuable urban area. Optimized results show higher likelihood of intermediate geotechnical failure than overtopping failure. The effects of uncertainty in levee fragility curves, economic damage potential, construction costs, and hydrology (changing climate) are explored. Optimal levee crown width is more sensitive to these uncertainties than height, while the derived general principles and guidelines for risk-based optimal levee planning remain the same.

Relationship of zolpidem and cancer risk: a Taiwanese population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Kao, Chia-Hung; Sun, Li-Min; Liang, Ji-An; Chang, Shih-Ni; Sung, Fung-Chang; Muo, Chih-Hsin

2012-05-01

To evaluate the relationship between the use of zolpidem and subsequent cancer risk in Taiwanese patients. We used data from the National Health Insurance system of Taiwan to investigate whether use of zolpidem was related to cancer risk. For the study cohort, we identified 14,950 patients who had received a first prescription for zolpidem from January 1, 1998, through December 31, 2000. For each zolpidem user, we selected randomly 4 comparison patients without a history of using zolpidem who were frequency-matched by sex, age, and year of the index date. Incidence rates of all cancers and selected site-specific cancers were measured by the end of 2009, and related hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the cancer were measured as well. The risk of developing any cancer was greater in patients using zolpidem than in nonusers (HR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.55-1.82). The stratified analysis showed that the overall HR for high-dosage zolpidem (≥300 mg/y) was 2.38. The site-specific cancer risk was the highest for oral cancer (HR, 2.36; 95% CI, 1.57-3.56), followed by kidney cancer, esophageal cancer, breast cancer, liver cancer, lung cancer, and bladder cancer (HR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.06-2.41). Men were at higher risk than women. This population-based study revealed some unexpected findings, suggesting that the use of zolpidem may be associated with an increased risk of subsequent cancer. Further large-scale and in-depth investigations in this area are warranted. Copyright © 2012 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Race, APOL1 Risk, and eGFR Decline in the General Population

PubMed Central

Rebholz, Casey M.; Chen, Yuan; Rawlings, Andreea M.; Estrella, Michelle M.; Selvin, Elizabeth; Appel, Lawrence J.; Tin, Adrienne; Coresh, Josef

2016-01-01

The APOL1 high-risk genotype, present in approximately 13% of blacks in the United States, is a risk factor for kidney function decline in populations with CKD. It is unknown whether genetic screening is indicated in the general population. We evaluated the prognosis of APOL1 high-risk status in participants in the population-based Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, including associations with eGFR decline, variability in eGFR decline, and related adverse health events (AKI, ESRD, hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, pre-ESRD and total hospitalization rate, and mortality). Among 15,140 ARIC participants followed from 1987–1989 (baseline) to 2011–2013, 75.3% were white, 21.5% were black/APOL1 low-risk, and 3.2% were black/APOL1 high-risk. In a demographic-adjusted analysis, blacks had a higher risk for all assessed adverse health events; however, in analyses adjusted for comorbid conditions and socioeconomic status, blacks had a higher risk for hypertension, diabetes, and ESRD only. Among blacks, the APOL1 high-risk genotype associated only with higher risk of ESRD in a fully adjusted analysis. Black race and APOL1 high-risk status were associated with faster eGFR decline (P<0.001 for each). However, we detected substantial overlap among the groups: median (10th–90th percentile) unadjusted eGFR decline was 1.5 (1.0–2.2) ml/min per 1.73 m2 per year for whites, 2.1 (1.4–3.1) ml/min per 1.73 m2 per year for blacks with APOL1 low-risk status, and 2.3 (1.5–3.5) ml/min per 1.73 m2 per year for blacks with APOL1 high-risk status. The high variability in eGFR decline among blacks with and without the APOL1 high-risk genotype suggests that population-based screening is not yet justified. PMID:26966015

Race, APOL1 Risk, and eGFR Decline in the General Population.

PubMed

Grams, Morgan E; Rebholz, Casey M; Chen, Yuan; Rawlings, Andreea M; Estrella, Michelle M; Selvin, Elizabeth; Appel, Lawrence J; Tin, Adrienne; Coresh, Josef

2016-09-01

The APOL1 high-risk genotype, present in approximately 13% of blacks in the United States, is a risk factor for kidney function decline in populations with CKD. It is unknown whether genetic screening is indicated in the general population. We evaluated the prognosis of APOL1 high-risk status in participants in the population-based Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, including associations with eGFR decline, variability in eGFR decline, and related adverse health events (AKI, ESRD, hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, pre-ESRD and total hospitalization rate, and mortality). Among 15,140 ARIC participants followed from 1987-1989 (baseline) to 2011-2013, 75.3% were white, 21.5% were black/APOL1 low-risk, and 3.2% were black/APOL1 high-risk. In a demographic-adjusted analysis, blacks had a higher risk for all assessed adverse health events; however, in analyses adjusted for comorbid conditions and socioeconomic status, blacks had a higher risk for hypertension, diabetes, and ESRD only. Among blacks, the APOL1 high-risk genotype associated only with higher risk of ESRD in a fully adjusted analysis. Black race and APOL1 high-risk status were associated with faster eGFR decline (P<0.001 for each). However, we detected substantial overlap among the groups: median (10th-90th percentile) unadjusted eGFR decline was 1.5 (1.0-2.2) ml/min per 1.73 m(2) per year for whites, 2.1 (1.4-3.1) ml/min per 1.73 m(2) per year for blacks with APOL1 low-risk status, and 2.3 (1.5-3.5) ml/min per 1.73 m(2) per year for blacks with APOL1 high-risk status. The high variability in eGFR decline among blacks with and without the APOL1 high-risk genotype suggests that population-based screening is not yet justified. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Which population groups are most unaware of CVD risks associated with sitting time?

PubMed

Duncan, Mitch J; Gilson, Nicholas; Vandelanotte, Corneel

2014-08-01

Prolonged sitting is an emerging risk factor for poor health yet few studies have examined awareness of the risks associated with sitting behaviours. This study identifies the population subgroups with the highest levels of unawareness regarding the cardiovascular disease (CVD) risks associated with sitting behaviours. Adults (n=1256) living in Queensland, Australia completed a telephone-based survey in 2011, analysis conducted in 2013. The survey assessed participant's socio-demographic characteristics, physical activity, sitting behaviours and awareness of CVD risks associated with three sitting behaviours: 1) sitting for prolonged periods, 2), sitting for prolonged periods whilst also engaging in regular physical activity, and 3) breaking up periods of prolonged sitting with short activity breaks. Population sub-groups with the highest levels of unawareness were identified based on socio-demographic and behavioural characteristics using signal detection analysis. Unawareness ranged from 23.3% to 67.0%. Age was the most important variable in differentiating awareness levels; younger adults had higher levels of unawareness. Body mass index, physical activity, TV viewing, employment status and time spent at work also identified population sub-groups. Unawareness of CVD risk for prolonged sitting was moderately high overall. Younger adults had high levels of unawareness on all of the outcomes examined. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Population-based screening for breast and ovarian cancer risk due to BRCA1 and BRCA2

PubMed Central

Gabai-Kapara, Efrat; Lahad, Amnon; Kaufman, Bella; Friedman, Eitan; Segev, Shlomo; Renbaum, Paul; Beeri, Rachel; Gal, Moran; Grinshpun-Cohen, Julia; Djemal, Karen; Mandell, Jessica B.; Lee, Ming K.; Beller, Uziel; Catane, Raphael; King, Mary-Claire; Levy-Lahad, Ephrat

2014-01-01

In the Ashkenazi Jewish (AJ) population of Israel, 11% of breast cancer and 40% of ovarian cancer are due to three inherited founder mutations in the cancer predisposition genes BRCA1 and BRCA2. For carriers of these mutations, risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy significantly reduces morbidity and mortality. Population screening for these mutations among AJ women may be justifiable if accurate estimates of cancer risk for mutation carriers can be obtained. We therefore undertook to determine risks of breast and ovarian cancer for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers ascertained irrespective of personal or family history of cancer. Families harboring mutations in BRCA1 or BRCA2 were ascertained by identifying mutation carriers among healthy AJ males recruited from health screening centers and outpatient clinics. Female relatives of the carriers were then enrolled and genotyped. Among the female relatives with BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations, cumulative risk of developing either breast or ovarian cancer by age 60 and 80, respectively, were 0.60 (± 0.07) and 0.83 (± 0.07) for BRCA1 carriers and 0.33 (± 0.09) and 0.76 (± 0.13) for BRCA2 carriers. Risks were higher in recent vs. earlier birth cohorts (P = 0.006). High cancer risks in BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation carriers identified through healthy males provide an evidence base for initiating a general screening program in the AJ population. General screening would identify many carriers who are not evaluated by genetic testing based on family history criteria. Such a program could serve as a model to investigate implementation and outcomes of population screening for genetic predisposition to cancer in other populations. PMID:25192939

Seroprevalence of Hepatitis B Virus Infection and Its Risk Factors in the West of Iran: A Population-based Study

PubMed Central

Alavian, Seyed Moayed; Tabatabaei, Seyed Vahid; Ghadimi, Teyyeb; Beedrapour, Farzam; Kafi-abad, Sedigheh Amini; Gharehbaghian, Ahmad; Abolghasemi, Hassan

2012-01-01

Introduction: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a serious global public health problem affecting billions of people globally. The lack of information of its seroprevalence among the general population is an obstacle for formulating effective policies to reduce the burden viral hepatitis. Therefore, this population based serological survey was conducted in Kurdistan province, where no epidemiological data was available to determine the prevalence and risk factors of HBV infection. Methods: 1613 healthy subjects were selected from all districts of Kurdistan province (in the western of Iran) using random cluster sampling. The subjects’ age ranged from 6 to 65 years old. Serum samples were tested for HBcAb, HBsAg and anti-HDV antibody. Screening tests were carried out by the third generation of ELISA. Various risk factors were recorded and multivariate analysis was performed. Results: The prevalence of HBsAg and HBcAb in Kurdistan was before 0.80% (95% CI 0.44; 1.34) and 5.02% (95% CI 4.03; 6.17), respectively. None of HBsAg carriers had positive anti-HDV antibody. Predictors of HBsAg or HBcAb in multivariate analysis were: older age and marriage. We did not find any significant differences between males and females. Conclusion: Our population based study suggests that intrafamilial HBV transmission plays a major role in HBV transmission in Kurdistan province. Furthermore, approximately 5% of general population in this province has prior exposure to HBV and less than 1% is HBsAg carriers. However, we could not find any case of HDV infection among them. PMID:23189228

Risk of erectile dysfunction in transfusion-naive thalassemia men: a nationwide population-based retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Chen, Yu-Guang; Lin, Te-Yu; Lin, Cheng-Li; Dai, Ming-Shen; Ho, Ching-Liang; Kao, Chia-Hung

2015-04-01

Based on the mechanism of pathophysiology, thalassemia major or transfusion-dependent thalassemia patients may have an increased risk of developing organic erectile dysfunction resulting from hypogonadism. However, there have been few studies investigating the association between erectile dysfunction and transfusion-naive thalassemia populations. We constructed a population-based cohort study to elucidate the association between transfusion-naive thalassemia populations and organic erectile dysfunction. This nationwide population-based cohort study involved analyzing data from 1998 to 2010 obtained from the Taiwanese National Health Insurance Research Database, with a follow-up period extending to the end of 2011. We identified men with transfusion-naive thalassemia and selected a comparison cohort that was frequency-matched with these according to age, and year of diagnosis thalassemia at a ratio of 1 thalassemia man to 4 control men. We analyzed the risks for transfusion-naive thalassemia men and organic erectile dysfunction by using Cox proportional hazards regression models. In this study, 588 transfusion-naive thalassemia men and 2337 controls were included. Total 12 patients were identified within the thalassaemia group and 10 within the control group. The overall risks for developing organic erectile dysfunction were 4.56-fold in patients with transfusion-naive thalassemia men compared with the comparison cohort after we adjusted for age and comorbidities. Our long-term cohort study results showed that in transfusion-naive thalassemia men, there was a higher risk for the development of organic erectile dysfunction, particularly in those patients with comorbidities.

A population-based validation study of the DCIS Score predicting recurrence risk in individuals treated by breast-conserving surgery alone.

PubMed

Rakovitch, Eileen; Nofech-Mozes, Sharon; Hanna, Wedad; Baehner, Frederick L; Saskin, Refik; Butler, Steven M; Tuck, Alan; Sengupta, Sandip; Elavathil, Leela; Jani, Prashant A; Bonin, Michel; Chang, Martin C; Robertson, Susan J; Slodkowska, Elzbieta; Fong, Cindy; Anderson, Joseph M; Jamshidian, Farid; Miller, Dave P; Cherbavaz, Diana B; Shak, Steven; Paszat, Lawrence

2015-07-01

Validated biomarkers are needed to improve risk assessment and treatment decision-making for women with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) of the breast. The Oncotype DX DCIS Score (DS) was shown to predict the risk of local recurrence (LR) in individuals with low-risk DCIS treated by breast-conserving surgery (BCS) alone. Our objective was to confirm these results in a larger population-based cohort of individuals. We used an established population-based cohort of individuals diagnosed with DCIS treated with BCS alone from 1994 to 2003 with validation of treatment and outcomes. Central pathology assessment excluded cases with invasive cancer, DCIS < 2 mm or positive margins. Cox model was used to determine the relationship between independent covariates, the DS (hazard ratio (HR)/50 Cp units (U)) and LR. Tumor blocks were collected for 828 patients. Final evaluable population includes 718 cases, of whom 571 had negative margins. Median follow-up was 9.6 years. 100 cases developed LR following BCS alone (DCIS, N = 44; invasive, N = 57). In the primary pre-specified analysis, the DS was associated with any LR (DCIS or invasive) in ER+ patients (HR 2.26; P < 0.001) and in all patients regardless of ER status (HR 2.15; P < 0.001). DCIS Score provided independent information on LR risk beyond clinical and pathologic variables including size, age, grade, necrosis, multifocality, and subtype (adjusted HR 1.68; P = 0.02). DCIS was associated with invasive LR (HR 1.78; P = 0.04) and DCIS LR (HR 2.43; P = 0.005). The DCIS Score independently predicts and quantifies individualized recurrence risk in a population of patients with pure DCIS treated by BCS alone.

Variants on 8q24 and prostate cancer risk in Chinese population: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ren, Xiao-Qiang; Zhang, Jian-Guo; Xin, Shi-Yong; Cheng, Tao; Li, Liang; Ren, Wei-Hua

2015-01-01

Previous studies have identified 8q24 as an important region to prostate cancer (PCa) susceptibility. The aim of this study was to investigate the role of six genetic variants on 8q24 (rs1447295, A; rs6983267, G; rs6983561, C; rs7837688, T; rs10090154, T and rs16901979, A) on PCa risk in Chinese population. Online electronic databases were searched to retrieve related articles concerning the association between 8q24 variants and PCa risk in men of Chinese population published between 2000 and 2014. Odds ratio (ORs) with its 95% correspondence interval (CI) were employed to assess the strength of association. Total eleven case-control studies were screened out, including 2624 PCa patients and 2438 healthy controls. Our results showed that three risk alleles of rs1447295 A (OR=1.35, 95% CI=1.19-1.53, P<0.00001), rs6983561 C (C vs. A: OR=1.41, 95% CI=1.21-1.63, P<0.00001) and rs10090154 T (T vs. C: OR=1.48, 95% CI=1.22-1.80, P<0.00001) on8q24 were significantly associated with PCa risk in Chinese population. Furthermore, genotypes of rs1447295, AA+AC; rs6983561, CC+AC and CC; rs10090154, TT+TC; and rs16901979, AA were associated with PCa as well (P<0.01). No association was found between rs6983267, rs7837688 and PCa risk. In conclusions, variants including rs1447295, rs6983561, rs10090154 and rs16901979 on 8q24 might be associated with PCa risk in Chinese population, indicating these four variations may contribute risk to this disease. This meta-analysis was the first study to assess the role of 8q24 variants on PCa risk in Chinese population.

Perceived risks and benefits of cigarette smoking among Nepalese adolescents: a population-based cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Aryal, Umesh Raj; Petzold, Max; Krettek, Alexandra

2013-03-02

The perceived risks and benefits of smoking may play an important role in determining adolescents' susceptibility to initiating smoking. Our study examined the perceived risks and benefits of smoking among adolescents who demonstrated susceptibility or non susceptibility to smoking initiation. In October-November 2011, we conducted a population-based cross-sectional study in Jhaukhel and Duwakot Villages in Nepal. Located in the mid-hills of Bhaktapur District, 13 kilometers east of Kathmandu, Jhaukhel and Duwakot represent the prototypical urbanizing villages that surround Nepal's major urban centers, where young people have easy access to tobacco products and are influenced by advertising. Jhaukhel and Duwakot had a total population of 13,669, of which 15% were smokers. Trained enumerators used a semi-structured questionnaire to interview 352 randomly selected 14- to 16-year-old adolescents. The enumerators asked the adolescents to estimate their likelihood (0%-100%) of experiencing various smoking-related risks and benefits in a hypothetical scenario. Principal component analysis extracted four perceived risk and benefit components, excluding addiction risk: (i) physical risk I (lung cancer, heart disease, wrinkles, bad colds); (ii) physical risk II (bad cough, bad breath, trouble breathing); (iii) social risk (getting into trouble, smelling like an ashtray); and (iv) social benefit (looking cool, feeling relaxed, becoming popular, and feeling grown-up). The adjusted odds ratio of susceptibility increased 1.20-fold with each increased quartile in perception of physical Risk I. Susceptibility to smoking was 0.27- and 0.90-fold less among adolescents who provided the highest estimates of physical Risk II and social risk, respectively. Similarly, susceptibility was 2.16-fold greater among adolescents who provided the highest estimates of addiction risk. Physical risk I, addiction risk, and social benefits of cigarette smoking related positively, and physical risk

Diabetes mellitus increases the risk of rotator cuff tear repair surgery: A population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Huang, Shih-Wei; Wang, Wei-Te; Chou, Lin-Chuan; Liou, Tsan-Hon; Chen, Yi-Wen; Lin, Hui-Wen

Rotator cuff tears are the most common cause of shoulder disability in people older than 50years, and surgical intervention is usually required for restoring functioning. However, in patients undergoing rotator cuff repair surgery, patients with DM had poorer functional outcomes than those without DM, and hence, DM is one of the possible risks factor for rotator cut off tear. The aim of this population-based study was to investigate the relationship between DM and the risk of rotator cuff tear in patients receiving rotator cuff repair surgery. In this retrospective longitudinal population-based 7-year cohort study, we investigated the risk of rotator cuff repair surgery in patients with DM. We performed a case-control matched analysis by using data from the Taiwan Longitudinal Health Insurance Database 2005. Patients were enrolled on the basis of the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification diagnostic codes for DM between January 1, 2004, and December 31, 2007. The prevalence and the adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of a rotator cuff repair surgery in patients with and without DM were estimated according to the Cox proportional hazard regression analysis using the frailty model. The DM and non-DM cohorts comprised 58,652 patients with DM and 117,304 (1:2) patients without DM after matching for age and sex. The incidence of rotator cuff repair surgery was 41 per 100,000 and 26 per 100,000 person-years in the DM and non-DM cohorts, respectively. The HR of rotator cuff repair surgery during the follow-up period was 1.56 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.25-1.93, p<0.001) for patients with DM. After adjustment for covariates, the adjusted HR of rotator cuff repair surgery was 1.33 (95% CI, 1.05-1.68, p<0.001) in the DM cohort. DM is an independent risk factor for rotator cuff tear repair surgery. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Association between risk factors and detection of cutaneous melanoma in the setting of a population-based skin cancer screening.

PubMed

Hübner, Joachim; Waldmann, Annika; Eisemann, Nora; Noftz, Maria; Geller, Alan C; Weinstock, Martin A; Volkmer, Beate; Greinert, Rüdiger; Breitbart, Eckhard W; Katalinic, Alexander

2017-07-07

Early detection is considered to improve the prognosis of cutaneous melanoma. The value of population-based screening for melanoma, however, is still controversial. The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive power of established risk factors in the setting of a population-based screening and to provide empirical evidence for potential risk stratifications. We reanalyzed data (including age, sex, risk factors, and screening results) of 354 635 participants in the Skin Cancer Research to provide Evidence for Effectiveness of Screening in Northern Germany project conducted in the German state of Schleswig-Holstein (2003-2004). In multivariable analysis, atypical nevi [odds ratio (OR): 17.4; 95% confidence interval (CI): 14.4-20.1], personal history of melanoma (OR: 5.3; 95% CI: 3.6-7.6), and multiple (≥40) common nevi (OR: 1.3; 95% CI: 1.1-1.6) were associated with an increased risk of melanoma detection. Family history and congenital nevi were not significantly associated with melanoma detection in the Skin Cancer Research to provide Evidence for Effectiveness of Screening in Northern Germany population. The effects of several risk-adapted screening strategies were evaluated. Hypothesizing a screening of individuals aged more than or equal to 35 years, irrespective of risk factors (age approach), the number needed to screen is 559 (95% CI: 514-612), whereas a screening of adults (aged ≥20) with at least one risk factor (risk approach) leads to an number needed to screen of 178 (95% CI: 163-196). Converted into one screen-detected melanoma, the number of missed melanomas is 0.15 (95% CI: 0.12-0.18) with the age approach and 0.22 (95% CI: 0.19-0.26) with the risk approach. The results indicate that focusing on individuals at high risk for melanoma may improve the cost-effectiveness and the benefit-to-harm balance of melanoma screening programs.

Spatio-temporal population estimates for risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cockings, Samantha; Martin, David; Smith, Alan; Martin, Rebecca

2013-04-01

Accurate estimation of population at risk from hazards and effective emergency management of events require not just appropriate spatio-temporal modelling of hazards but also of population. While much recent effort has been focused on improving the modelling and predictions of hazards (both natural and anthropogenic), there has been little parallel advance in the measurement or modelling of population statistics. Different hazard types occur over diverse temporal cycles, are of varying duration and differ significantly in their spatial extent. Even events of the same hazard type, such as flood events, vary markedly in their spatial and temporal characteristics. Conceptually and pragmatically then, population estimates should also be available for similarly varying spatio-temporal scales. Routine population statistics derived from traditional censuses or surveys are usually static representations in both space and time, recording people at their place of usual residence on census/survey night and presenting data for administratively defined areas. Such representations effectively fix the scale of population estimates in both space and time, which is unhelpful for meaningful risk management. Over recent years, the Pop24/7 programme of research, based at the University of Southampton (UK), has developed a framework for spatio-temporal modelling of population, based on gridded population surfaces. Based on a data model which is fully flexible in terms of space and time, the framework allows population estimates to be produced for any time slice relevant to the data contained in the model. It is based around a set of origin and destination centroids, which have capacities, spatial extents and catchment areas, all of which can vary temporally, such as by time of day, day of week, season. A background layer, containing information on features such as transport networks and landuse, provides information on the likelihood of people being in certain places at specific times

Familial risk of cerebral palsy: population based cohort study.

PubMed

Tollånes, Mette C; Wilcox, Allen J; Lie, Rolv T; Moster, Dag

2014-07-15

To investigate risks of recurrence of cerebral palsy in family members with various degrees of relatedness to elucidate patterns of hereditability. Population based cohort study. Data from the Medical Birth Registry of Norway, linked to the Norwegian social insurance scheme to identify cases of cerebral palsy and to databases of Statistics Norway to identify relatives. 2,036,741 Norwegians born during 1967-2002, 3649 of whom had a diagnosis of cerebral palsy; 22,558 pairs of twins, 1,851,144 pairs of first degree relatives, 1,699,856 pairs of second degree relatives, and 5,165,968 pairs of third degree relatives were identified. Cerebral palsy. If one twin had cerebral palsy, the relative risk of recurrence of cerebral palsy was 15.6 (95% confidence interval 9.8 to 25) in the other twin. In families with an affected singleton child, risk was increased 9.2 (6.4 to 13)-fold in a subsequent full sibling and 3.0 (1.1 to 8.6)-fold in a half sibling. Affected parents were also at increased risk of having an affected child (6.5 (1.6 to 26)-fold). No evidence was found of differential transmission through mothers or fathers, although the study had limited power to detect such differences. For people with an affected first cousin, only weak evidence existed for an increased risk (1.5 (0.9 to 2.7)-fold). Risks in siblings or cousins were independent of sex of the index case. After exclusion of preterm births (an important risk factor for cerebral palsy), familial risks remained and were often stronger. People born into families in which someone already has cerebral palsy are themselves at elevated risk, depending on their degree of relatedness. Elevated risk may extend even to third degree relatives (first cousins). The patterns of risk suggest multifactorial inheritance, in which multiple genes interact with each other and with environmental factors. These data offer additional evidence that the underlying causes of cerebral palsy extend beyond the clinical management of

Adverse childhood experiences, gender, and HIV risk behaviors: Results from a population-based sample.

PubMed

Fang, Lin; Chuang, Deng-Min; Lee, Yookyong

2016-12-01

Recent HIV research suggested assessing adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) as contributing factors of HIV risk behaviors. However, studies often focused on a single type of adverse experience and very few utilized population-based data. This population study examined the associations between ACE (individual and cumulative ACE score) and HIV risk behaviors. We analyzed the 2012 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey (BRFSS) from 5 states. The sample consisted of 39,434 adults. Eight types of ACEs that included different types of child abuse and household dysfunctions before the age of 18 were measured. A cumulative score of ACEs was also computed. Logistic regression estimated of the association between ACEs and HIV risk behaviors using odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for males and females separately. We found that ACEs were positively associated with HIV risk behaviors overall, but the associations differed between males and females in a few instances. While the cumulative ACE score was associated with HIV risk behaviors in a stepwise manner, the pattern varied by gender. For males, the odds of HIV risk increased at a significant level as long as they experienced one ACE, whereas for females, the odds did not increase until they experienced three or more ACEs. Future research should further investigate the gender-specific associations between ACEs and HIV risk behaviors. As childhood adversities are prevalent among general population, and such experiences are associated with increased risk behaviors for HIV transmission, service providers can benefit from the principles of trauma-informed practice.

Cardiovascular disease and risk of acute pancreatitis in a population-based study.

PubMed

Bexelius, Tomas Sjöberg; Ljung, Rickard; Mattsson, Fredrik; Lagergren, Jesper

2013-08-01

The low-grade inflammation that characterizes cardiovascular disorders may facilitate the development of pancreatitis; therefore, we investigated the connection between cardiovascular disorders and acute pancreatitis. A nested population-based case-control study was conducted in Sweden in 2006-2008. Cases had a first episode of acute pancreatitis diagnosed in the nationwide Patient Register. Controls were matched on age, sex, and calendar year and randomly selected from all Swedish residents (40-84 years old). Exposure to cardiovascular diseases (hypertension, ischemic heart disease, congestive heart failure, and stroke) was identified in the Patient Register. Relative risk of acute pancreatitis was estimated by odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals using logistic regression adjusting for confounders (matching variables, alcohol disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, type 2 diabetes, number of distinct medications, and other cardiovascular diseases). The study included 6161 cases and 61,637 control subjects. Cardiovascular disorders were positively associated with acute pancreatitis (adjusted odds ratio, 1.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.25-1.45). This population-based study indicates an association between cardiovascular disease and acute pancreatitis. Specifically, ischemic heart disease and hypertension seem to increase the risk of acute pancreatitis. Further research is needed to determine causality.

An analysis of population-based prenatal screening for overt hypothyroidism.

PubMed

Bryant, Stefanie N; Nelson, David B; McIntire, Donald D; Casey, Brian M; Cunningham, F Gary

2015-10-01

The purpose of the study was to evaluate pregnancy outcomes of hypothyroidism that were identified in a population-based prenatal screening program. This is a secondary analysis of a prospective prenatal population-based study in which serum thyroid analytes were obtained from November 2000 to April 2003. Initial screening thresholds were intentionally inclusive (thyroid-stimulating hormone [TSH], >3.0 mU/L; free thyroxine, <0.9 ng/dL); those who screened positive were referred for confirmatory testing in a hospital-based laboratory. Hypothyroidism was identified and treated if TSH level was >4.5 mU/L and if fT4 level was <0.76 ng/dL. Perinatal outcomes in these women and those who screened positive but unconfirmed to have hypothyroidism were compared with women with euthyroidism. Outcomes were then analyzed according to initial TSH levels. A total of 26,518 women completed initial screening: 24,584 women (93%) were euthyroid, and 284 women (1%) had abnormal initial values that suggested hypothyroidism. Of those referred, 232 women (82%) underwent repeat testing, and 47 women (0.2% initially screened) were confirmed to have hypothyroidism. Perinatal outcomes of women with treated overt hypothyroidism were similar to women with euthyroidism. Higher rates of pregnancy-related hypertension were identified in the 182 women with unconfirmed hypothyroidism when compared with women with euthyroidism (P < .001); however, this association was seen only in women with initial TSH >4.5 mU/L (adjusted odds ratio, 2.53; 95% confidence interval, 1.4-4.5). The identification and treatment of overt hypothyroidism results in pregnancy outcomes similar to women with euthyroidism. Unconfirmed screening results suggestive of hypothyroidism portend pregnancy risks similar to women with subclinical hypothyroidism, specifically preeclampsia; however, this increased risk was seen only in women with initial TSH levels of >4.5 mU/L and suggests that this is a more clinically relevant

Risk of fragility fracture among patients with sarcoidosis: a population-based study 1976-2013.

PubMed

Ungprasert, P; Crowson, C S; Matteson, E L

2017-06-01

Incidence of fragility fracture of a population-based cohort of 345 patients with sarcoidosis was compared with age and sex-matched comparators. The incidence of fragility fracture was higher among patients with sarcoidosis with hazard ratio (HR) of 2.18. Several chronic inflammatory disorders increase the risk of fragility fracture. However, little is known about the risk of fragility fracture in patients with sarcoidosis. This study was conducted using a previously identified population-based cohort of 345 patients with incident sarcoidosis from Olmsted County, Minnesota. Diagnosis of sarcoidosis required physician diagnosis supported by biopsy showing non-caseating granuloma, radiographic evidence of intrathoracic sarcoidosis, and compatible clinical presentations without evidence of other granulomatous diseases. Sex and age-matched subjects randomly selected from the same underlying population were used as comparators. Medical records of cases and comparators were reviewed for baseline characteristics and incident fragility fracture. Fragility fractures were observed in 34 patients with sarcoidosis, corresponding to a cumulative incidence of 5.6% at 10 years, while 18 fragility fractures were observed among comparators for a cumulative incidence of 2.4% at 10 years. The HR of fragility fractures among cases compared with comparators was 2.18 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.23-3.88). The risk of fragility fracture by site was significantly higher among patients with sarcoidosis, and was due to a higher rate of distal forearm fracture (HR 3.58; 95% CI 1.53-8.40). Statistically non-significant increased risk was also observed in proximal femur (HR 1.66; 95% CI 0.45-6.06) and proximal humerus (HR 3.27; 95% CI 0.66-16.21). Risk of vertebral fracture was not increased (HR 1.00; 95% CI 0.32-3.11). Patients with sarcoidosis have an increased risk of fragility fracture which is primarily driven by the higher incidence of distal forearm fracture.

Secondary Primary Malignancy Risk in Patients With Cervical Cancer in Taiwan: A Nationwide Population-Based Study.

PubMed

Teng, Chung-Jen; Huon, Leh-Kiong; Hu, Yu-Wen; Yeh, Chiu-Mei; Chao, Yee; Yang, Muh-Hwa; Chen, Tzeng-Ji; Hung, Yi-Ping; Liu, Chia-Jen

2015-10-01

To evaluate the risk of secondary primary malignancy (SPM) in patients with cervical cancer using a nationwide population-based dataset.Patients newly diagnosed with cervical cancer between 1997 and 2011 were identified using Taiwan's National Health Insurance database. Patients with antecedent malignancies were excluded. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) for SPM were calculated by comparing with the cancer incidence in the general population. Risk factors for cancer development were analyzed using Cox proportional hazard models.During the 14-year study period (follow-up of 223,062 person-years), 2004 cancers developed in 35,175 patients with cervical cancer. The SIR for all cancers was 1.56 (95% confidence interval, 1.50-1.63, P < 0.001). SIRs for follow-up periods of >10, 5 to 10, 1 to 5, and <1 year were 1.37, 1.51, 1.34, and 2.59, respectively. After the exclusion of SPM occurring within 1 year of cervical cancer diagnosis, SIRs were significantly higher for cancers of the esophagus (2.05), stomach (1.38), colon, rectum, and anus (1.36); lung and mediastinum (2.28), bone and soft tissue (2.23), uterus (3.76), bladder (2.26), and kidneys (1.41). Multivariate analysis showed that age ≥60 was a significant SPM risk factor (hazard ratio [HR] 1.59). Different treatments for cervical cancer, including radiotherapy (HR 1.41) and chemotherapy (HR 1.27), had different impacts on SPM risk. Carboplatin and fluorouracil independently increased SPM risk in cervical cancer patients.Patients with cervical cancer are at increased risk of SPM development. Age ≥60 years, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy are independent risk factors. Carboplatin and fluorouracil also increased SPM risk independently. Close surveillance of patients at high risk should be considered for the early detection of SPMs.

Holistic stakeholder-oriented and case study-based risk analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heisterkamp, Tobias

2013-04-01

Case studies of storm events in the Berlin conurbation demonstrate the chance of a holistic approach and its potential data sources. Data sets of population, but also data provided by insurance and transport companies, and operating data provided by fire brigades, are used. Various indicators for risk analysis are constructed to identify hot spots. These hot spots can be shortcomings or critical aspects in structure, communication, the warning chain, or even in the structure of potentially affected stakeholders or in the civil protection system itself. Due to increasing complexity of interactions and interdependencies in or between societies and nature, it is important to choose a holistic approach. For risk analyses like the storms in Berlin, it captures many important factors with their effects. For risk analyses, it is important to take potential users into concern: The analysis gets important due to its use later on. In addition to a theoretical background, a focus on the application should be set from the beginning on. To get usable results, it is helpful to complement the theoretical meta-level by a stakeholder-oriented level. An iterative investigation and combination of different layers for the risk analysis explores important influencing factors and allows a tailoring of results to different stakeholder groups. Layers are indicators, gained from data sets like losses from insurance data. Tailoring is important, because of different requirements e.g. by technical or medical assistance. Stakeholders' feedback in the iterative investigation also shows structural limitations for later applications, like special laws the fire brigades have to deal with. Additionally, using actors' perspectives offers the chance to convince practitioners of taking part in the analysis. Their participation is an essential component in applied science. They are important data suppliers, whose goodwill is needed to ensure good results. Based on their experience, they can also help

Bipolar disorder and the risk of fracture: A nationwide population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Su, Jian-An; Cheng, Bi-Hua; Huang, Yin-Cheng; Lee, Chuan-Pin; Yang, Yao-Hsu; Lu, Mong-Liang; Hsu, Chung-Yao; Lee, Yena; McIntyre, Roger S; Chin Lin, Tzu; Chin-Hung Chen, Vincent

2017-08-15

The co-primary aims are: 1) to compare the risk of fracture between adults with bipolar disorder and those without bipolar disorder; and 2) to assess whether lithium, anticonvulsants and antipsychotics reduce risk of fracture among individuals with bipolar disorder. The analysis herein is a population-based retrospective cohort study, utilizing the National Health Insurance (NHI) medical claims data collected between 1997 and 2013 in Taiwan. We identified 3705 cases with incident diagnoses of bipolar disorder during study period and 37,050 matched controls without bipolar diagnoses. Incident diagnosis of fracture was operationalized as any bone fracture after the diagnosis of bipolar disorder or after the matched index date for controls. Bipolar patients had significantly higher risk of facture when compared to matched controls (17.6% versus 11.7%, respectively p<0.001). The hazard ratio (HR) was 1.33 (95% confidence interval [CI]＝1.23-1.48, p<0.001) after adjusting for covariates. Persons with bipolar disorder and a prior history of psychiatric hospitalization were had higher risk for bone fracture than those without prior history of psychiatric hospitalization when compared to match controls. Higher cumulative dose of antipsychotics or mood stabilizers did not increase the risk of fracture. The diagnoses of bipolar disorder were not confirmed with structured clinical interview. Drug adherence, exact exposure dosage, smoking, lifestyle, nutrition and exercise habits were unable to be assessed in our dataset. Bipolar disorder is associated with increased risk of fracture, and higher cumulative dose of mood stabilizers and antipsychotics did not further increase the risk of fracture. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Validation of an imaging based cardiovascular risk score in a Scottish population.

PubMed

Kockelkoren, Remko; Jairam, Pushpa M; Murchison, John T; Debray, Thomas P A; Mirsadraee, Saeed; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Jong, Pim A de; van Beek, Edwin J R

2018-01-01

A radiological risk score that determines 5-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk using routine care CT and patient information readily available to radiologists was previously developed. External validation in a Scottish population was performed to assess the applicability and validity of the risk score in other populations. 2915 subjects aged ≥40 years who underwent routine clinical chest CT scanning for non-cardiovascular diagnostic indications were followed up until first diagnosis of, or death from, CVD. Using a case-cohort approach, all cases and a random sample of 20% of the participant's CT examinations were visually graded for cardiovascular calcifications and cardiac diameter was measured. The radiological risk score was determined using imaging findings, age, gender, and CT indication. Performance on 5-year CVD risk prediction was assessed. 384 events occurred in 2124 subjects during a mean follow-up of 4.25 years (0-6.4 years). The risk score demonstrated reasonable performance in the studied population. Calibration showed good agreement between actual and 5-year predicted risk of CVD. The c-statistic was 0.71 (95%CI:0.67-0.75). The radiological CVD risk score performed adequately in the Scottish population offering a potential novel strategy for identifying patients at high risk for developing cardiovascular disease using routine care CT data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[A Meta-analysis on tea drinking and the risk of lung cancer in Chinese population].

PubMed

Jin, Zi-yi; Han, Ren-qiang; Liu, Ai-min; Wang, Xu-shan; Wu, Ming; Zhang, Zuo-feng; Zhao, Jin-kou

2012-08-01

To examine the association between tea drinking and the risk of lung cancer in Chinese population. All relevant published articles in Chinese and English literature database were identified. Meta-analysis was conducted. Combined odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated to estimate the associations and dose-response relationship between tea drinking and the risk of lung cancer. Twelve studies were included. An inverse association with lung cancer was observed on tea drinkers when compared to non-tea drinkers (OR = 0.66, 95%CI: 0.49 - 0.89). Tea drinking might serve as a protective factor on lung cancer in the Chinese population.

Assessment of fracture risk: value of random population-based samples--the Geelong Osteoporosis Study.

PubMed

Henry, M J; Pasco, J A; Seeman, E; Nicholson, G C; Sanders, K M; Kotowicz, M A

2001-01-01

Fracture risk is determined by bone mineral density (BMD). The T-score, a measure of fracture risk, is the position of an individual's BMD in relation to a reference range. The aim of this study was to determine the magnitude of change in the T-score when different sampling techniques were used to produce the reference range. Reference ranges were derived from three samples, drawn from the same region: (1) an age-stratified population-based random sample, (2) unselected volunteers, and (3) a selected healthy subset of the population-based sample with no diseases or drugs known to affect bone. T-scores were calculated using the three reference ranges for a cohort of women who had sustained a fracture and as a group had a low mean BMD (ages 35-72 yr; n = 484). For most comparisons, the T-scores for the fracture cohort were more negative using the population reference range. The difference in T-scores reached 1.0 SD. The proportion of the fracture cohort classified as having osteoporosis at the spine was 26, 14, and 23% when the population, volunteer, and healthy reference ranges were applied, respectively. The use of inappropriate reference ranges results in substantial changes to T-scores and may lead to inappropriate management.

Stroke risk after nonstroke emergency department dizziness presentations: a population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Kerber, Kevin A; Zahuranec, Darin B; Brown, Devin L; Meurer, William J; Burke, James F; Smith, Melinda A; Lisabeth, Lynda D; Fendrick, A Mark; McLaughlin, Thomas; Morgenstern, Lewis B

2014-06-01

Acute stroke is a serious concern in emergency department (ED) dizziness presentations. Prior studies, however, suggest that stroke is actually an unlikely cause of these presentations. Lacking are data on short- and long-term follow-up from population-based studies to establish stroke risk after presumed nonstroke ED dizziness presentations. From May 8, 2011 to May 7, 2012, patients ≥45 years of age presenting to EDs in Nueces County, Texas, with dizziness, vertigo, or imbalance were identified, excluding those with stroke as the initial diagnosis. Stroke events after the ED presentation up to October 2, 2012 were determined using the BASIC (Brain Attack Surveillance in Corpus Christi) study, which uses rigorous surveillance and neurologist validation. Cumulative stroke risk was calculated using Kaplan-Meier estimates. A total of 1,245 patients were followed for a median of 347 days (interquartile range [IQR] = 230-436 days). Median age was 61.9 years (IQR = 53.8-74.0 years). After the ED visit, 15 patients (1.2%) had a stroke. Stroke risk was 0.48% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.22-1.07%) at 2 days, 0.48% (95% CI = 0.22-1.07%) at 7 days, 0.56% (95% CI = 0.27-1.18%) at 30 days, 0.56% (95% CI = 0.27-1.18%) at 90 days, and 1.42% (95% CI = 0.85-2.36%) at 12 months. Using rigorous case ascertainment and outcome assessment in a population-based design, we found that the risk of stroke after presumed nonstroke ED dizziness presentations is very low, supporting a nonstroke etiology to the overwhelming majority of original events. High-risk subgroups likely exist, however, because most of the 90-day stroke risk occurred within 2 days. Vascular risk stratification was insufficient to identify these cases. © 2014 American Neurological Association.

Stroke Risk After Non-Stroke ED Dizziness Presentations: A Population-Based Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Kerber, Kevin A.; Zahuranec, Darin B.; Brown, Devin L.; Meurer, William J.; Burke, James F.; Smith, Melinda A.; Lisabeth, Lynda D.; Fendrick, A. Mark; McLaughlin, Thomas; Morgenstern, Lewis B.

2014-01-01

Objective Acute stroke is a serious concern in Emergency Department (ED) dizziness presentations. Prior studies, however, suggest that stroke is actually an unlikely cause of these presentations. Lacking are data on short- and long-term follow-up from population-based studies to establish stroke risk after presumed non-stroke ED dizziness presentations. Methods From 5/8/2011 to 5/7/2012, patients ≥ 45 years of age presenting to EDs in Nueces County, Texas, with dizziness, vertigo, or imbalance were identified, excluding those with stroke as the initial diagnosis. Stroke events after the ED presentation up to 10/2/2012 were determined using the Brain Attack Surveillance in Corpus Christi (BASIC) study, which uses rigorous surveillance and neurologist validation. Cumulative stroke risk was calculated using Kaplan-Meier estimates. Results 1,245 patients were followed for a median of 347 days (IQR 230- 436 days). Median age was 61.9 years (IQR, 53.8-74.0 years). After the ED visit, fifteen patients (1.2%) had a stroke. Stroke risk was 0.48% (95% CI, 0.22%-1.07%) at 2 days; 0.48% (95% CI, 0.22%-1.07%) at 7 days; 0.56% (95% CI, 0.27%-1.18%) at 30 days; 0.56% (95% CI, 0.27%-1.18%) at 90 days; and 1.42% (95% CI, 0.85%-2.36%) at 12 months. Interpretation Using rigorous case ascertainment and outcome assessment in a population-based design, we found that the risk of stroke after presumed non-stroke ED dizziness presentations is very low, supporting a non-stroke etiology to the overwhelming majority of original events. High-risk subgroups likely exist, however, because most of the 90-day stroke risk occurred within 2-days. Vascular risk stratification was insufficient to identify these cases. PMID:24788511

Heterogeneity in Risk of Pelvic Inflammatory Diseases After Chlamydia Infection: A Population-Based Study in Manitoba, Canada

PubMed Central

Davies, Bethan; Ward, Helen; Leung, Stella; Turner, Katy M. E.; Garnett, Geoff P.; Blanchard, James F.; Yu, B. Nancy

2014-01-01

Background. The association between chlamydia infection and pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) is a key parameter for models evaluating the impact of chlamydia control programs. We quantified this association using a retrospective population-based cohort. Methods. We used administrative health data sets to construct a retrospective population-based cohort of women and girls aged 12–24 years who were resident in Manitoba, Canada, between 1992 and 1996. We performed survival analysis on a subcohort of individuals who were tested for chlamydia to estimate the risk of PID diagnosed in a primary care, outpatient, or inpatient setting after ≥1 positive chlamydia test. Results. A total of 73 883 individuals contributed 625 621 person years of follow-up. Those with a diagnosis of chlamydia had an increased risk of PID over their reproductive lifetime compared with those who tested negative (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 1.55; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.43–1.70). This risk increased with each subsequent infection: the AHR was 1.17 for first reinfection (95% CI, 1.06–1.30) and 1.35 for the second (95% CI, 1.04–1.75). The increased risk of PID from reinfection was highest in younger individuals (AHR, 4.55 (95% CI, 3.59–5.78) in individuals aged 12–15 years at the time of their second reinfection, compared with individuals older than 30 years). Conclusions. There is heterogeneity in the risk of PID after a chlamydia infection. Describing the progression to PID in mathematical models as an average rate may be an oversimplification; more accurate estimates of the cost-effectiveness of screening may be obtained by using an individual-based measure of risk. Health inequalities may be reduced by targeting health promotion interventions at sexually active girls younger than 16 years and those with a history of chlamydia. PMID:25381374

Heterogeneity in risk of pelvic inflammatory diseases after chlamydia infection: a population-based study in Manitoba, Canada.

PubMed

Davies, Bethan; Ward, Helen; Leung, Stella; Turner, Katy M E; Garnett, Geoff P; Blanchard, James F; Yu, B Nancy

2014-12-01

The association between chlamydia infection and pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) is a key parameter for models evaluating the impact of chlamydia control programs. We quantified this association using a retrospective population-based cohort. We used administrative health data sets to construct a retrospective population-based cohort of women and girls aged 12-24 years who were resident in Manitoba, Canada, between 1992 and 1996. We performed survival analysis on a subcohort of individuals who were tested for chlamydia to estimate the risk of PID diagnosed in a primary care, outpatient, or inpatient setting after ≥ 1 positive chlamydia test. A total of 73 883 individuals contributed 625 621 person years of follow-up. Those with a diagnosis of chlamydia had an increased risk of PID over their reproductive lifetime compared with those who tested negative (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 1.55; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.43-1.70). This risk increased with each subsequent infection: the AHR was 1.17 for first reinfection (95% CI, 1.06-1.30) and 1.35 for the second (95% CI, 1.04-1.75). The increased risk of PID from reinfection was highest in younger individuals (AHR, 4.55 (95% CI, 3.59-5.78) in individuals aged 12-15 years at the time of their second reinfection, compared with individuals older than 30 years). There is heterogeneity in the risk of PID after a chlamydia infection. Describing the progression to PID in mathematical models as an average rate may be an oversimplification; more accurate estimates of the cost-effectiveness of screening may be obtained by using an individual-based measure of risk. Health inequalities may be reduced by targeting health promotion interventions at sexually active girls younger than 16 years and those with a history of chlamydia. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

Risk of Parkinson's disease following zolpidem use: a retrospective, population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Huang, Hui-Chun; Tsai, Chon-Haw; Muo, Chih-Hsin; Lin, Kang-Hsu; Lu, Ming-Kuei; Sung, Fung-Chang; Kao, Chia-Hung

2015-01-01

To evaluate the influence of long-term zolpidem use on the incidence of developing Parkinson's disease. 2,961 subjects who used zolpidem for the first time longer than 3 months between 1998 and 2000 were identified in the National Health Insurance system of Taiwan. Subjects without a history of zolpidem use were randomly selected as a comparison cohort and frequency matched to zolpidem users based on age, sex, and index date. The diagnosis of Parkinson's disease was based on the criteria of the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification. Its incidence until the end of 2009 was calculated and its hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression models and Kaplan-Meier analysis. The overall incidence of Parkinson's disease was greater among zolpidem users than in the comparison cohort (HR = 1.88; 95% CI, 1.45-2.45). However, there was no difference in Parkinson's disease incidence between these 2 cohorts after 5 years of observation. The risk of Parkinson's disease increased with increasing zolpidem dose, with an HR of 0.70 for low-dose users (< 400 mg/y) and 2.94 for high-dose users (≥ 1,600 mg/y). The incidence of Parkinson's disease was greater in subjects using zolpidem only (HR = 2.35; 95% CI, 1.66-3.33) compared to those using benzodiazepines only (HR = 1.31; 95% CI, 0.91-1.90). By stratified analysis, zolpidem use with concurrent depression (HR = 4.79) increased the risk of Parkinson's disease compared to that of zolpidem users without concurrent depression. Zolpidem use might unmask preclinical Parkinson's disease, especially in patients with depression. However, large population-based, unbiased, randomized trials are warranted to confirm this finding. © Copyright 2015 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

Risk Profiles for Injurious Falls in People Over 60: A Population-Based Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Ek, Stina; Rizzuto, Debora; Fratiglioni, Laura; Johnell, Kristina; Xu, Weili

2018-01-01

Abstract Background Although falls in older adults are related to multiple risk factors, these factors have commonly been studied individually. We aimed to identify risk profiles for injurious falls in older adults by detecting clusters of established risk factors and quantifying their impact on fall risk. Methods Participants were 2,566 people, aged 60 years and older, from the population-based Swedish National Study on Aging and Care in Kungsholmen. Injurious falls was defined as hospitalization for or receipt of outpatient care because a fall. Cluster analysis was used to identify aggregation of possible risk factors including chronic diseases, fall-risk increasing drugs (FRIDs), physical and cognitive impairments, and lifestyle-related factors. Associations between the clusters and injurious falls over 3, 5, and 10 years were estimated using flexible parametric survival models. Results Five clusters were identified including: a “healthy”, a “well-functioning with multimorbidity”, a “well-functioning, with multimorbidity and high FRID consumption”, a “physically and cognitively impaired”, and a “disabled” cluster. The risk of injurious falls for all groups was significantly higher than for the first cluster of healthy individuals in the reference category. Hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) ranged from 1.71 (1.02–2.66) for the second cluster to 12.67 (7.38–21.75) for the last cluster over 3 years of follow-up. The highest risk was observed in the last two clusters with high burden of physical and cognitive impairments. Conclusion Risk factors for injurious fall tend to aggregate, representing different levels of risk for falls. Our findings can be useful to tailor and prioritize clinical and public health interventions. PMID:28605455

Risk factors for common mental disorders in women. Population-based longitudinal study.

PubMed

Patel, Vikram; Kirkwood, Betty R; Pednekar, Sulochana; Weiss, Helen; Mabey, David

2006-12-01

The determinants of common mental disorders in women have not been described in longitudinal studies from a low-income country. Population-based cohort study of 2494 women aged 18 to 50 years, in India. The Revised Clinical Interview Schedule was used for the detection of common mental disorders. There were 39 incident cases of common mental disorder in 2166 participants eligible for analysis (12-month rate 1.8%, 95% CI 1.3-2.4%). The following baseline factors were independently associated with the risk for common mental disorder: poverty (low income and having difficulty making ends meet); being married as compared with being single; use of tobacco; experiencing abnormal vaginal discharge; reporting a chronic physical illness; and having higher psychological symptom scores at baseline. Programmes to reduce the burden of common mental disorder in women should target poorer women, women with chronic physical illness and who have gynaecological symptoms, and women who use tobacco.

The Risk of Stroke in Physicians: A Population-based Cohort Study in Taiwan.

PubMed

Tam, Hon-Pheng; Lin, Hung-Jung; Weng, Shih-Feng; Hsu, Chien-Chin; Wang, Jhi-Joung; Su, Shih-Bin; Huang, Chien-Cheng; Guo, How-Ran

2017-10-01

Physicians in Taiwan work in stressful workplaces and have heavy workloads, both of which may contribute to the occurrence of a stroke. However, it is not clear whether they have a higher risk of stroke. Therefore, we conducted a population-based cohort study to compare the risks of stroke between physicians and the general population and among subgroups of physicians in Taiwan. In the National Health Insurance Research Database of Taiwan, we identified 28,062 physicians and selected 84,186 age- and sex-matched nonmedical staff beneficiaries as the references. Using conditional logistic regression, we compared the prevalence of stroke between physicians and references. In addition, we made comparisons among subgroup of physicians defined by age, sex, comorbidity, specialty, and the level of hospital. During the study period, physicians had higher prevalence rates of hypertension (23.6% vs. 19.1%), hyperlipidemia (21.4% vs. 12.9%), and coronary artery disease (CAD) (6.4% vs. 5.7%) than the referent group, but they had a lower risk of stroke with an odds ratio of 0.61 (95% confidence interval = 0.55, 0.66) after adjusting for hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, CAD, and active worker. Among physicians, the risks were higher in those who were older or had hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, or CAD. Despite having higher prevalence rates of hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and CAD and working in stressful workplaces with heavy workloads, our study suggests that physicians in Taiwan have a lower risk of stroke compared with the general population. These results may indicate the benefits of higher awareness and more knowledge of diseases.

Risk of retained placenta in women previously delivered by caesarean section: a population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Belachew, J; Cnattingius, S; Mulic-Lutvica, A; Eurenius, K; Axelsson, O; Wikström, A K

2014-01-01

To evaluate whether women with a caesarean section at their first delivery have an increased risk of retained placenta at their second delivery. Population-based cohort study. Sweden. All women with their first and second singleton deliveries in Sweden during the years 1994-2006 (n = 258,608). Women with caesarean section or placental abruption in their second pregnancy were not included in the study population. The risk of retained placenta at second delivery was estimated for women with a first delivery by caesarean section (n = 19,458), using women with a first vaginal delivery as reference (n = 239,150). Risks were calculated as odds ratios by unconditional logistic regression analysis with 95% confidence intervals (95%) after adjustments for maternal, delivery, and infant characteristics. Retained placenta with normal (≤1000 ml) and heavy (>1000 ml) bleeding. The overall rate of retained placenta was 2.07%. In women with a previous caesarean section and in women with previous vaginal delivery, the corresponding rates were 3.44% and 1.96%, respectively. Compared with women with a previous vaginal delivery, women with a previous caesarean section had an increased risk of retained placenta (adjusted OR 1.45; 95% CI 1.32-1.59), and the association was more pronounced for retained placenta with heavy bleeding (adjusted OR 1.61; 95% CI 1.44-1.79). Our report shows an increased risk for retained placenta in women previously delivered by caesarean section, a finding that should be considered in discussions of mode of delivery. © 2013 Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

Cadmium exposure and risk of lung cancer: a meta-analysis of cohort and case-control studies among general and occupational populations.

PubMed

Chen, Cheng; Xun, Pengcheng; Nishijo, Muneko; He, Ka

2016-09-01

The association between cadmium exposure and risk of lung cancer is still unclear. We quantitatively reviewed the observational studies that investigated the association between cadmium exposure and lung cancer risk in both general and occupational populations published through April 2015. The final data set is comprised of three cohort studies in the general population totaling 22,551 participants (354 events) with a mean follow-up of 15 years, five occupational cohort studies including 4205 individuals (180 events) with an average follow-up of 31 years, and three occupational case-control studies including 4740 cases and 6268 controls. Comparing the highest to the lowest category of cadmium exposure, the weighted relative risk and 95% confidence interval of lung cancer in the general population was 1.42 (95% CI (0.91, 2.23)); the weighted risk estimates (95% CIs) of lung cancer in three occupational cohort studies and three case-control studies were 0.68 (95% CI (0.33, 1.41)) and 1.61 (95% CI (0.94, 2.75)), respectively. No linear association was found. When comparing participants exposed to cadmium with non-exposed based on available data, the association became statistically significant. According to findings from this meta-analysis, the possibility that cadmium exposure may increase risk of lung cancer cannot be completely ruled out in either general or occupational population.

Familial Risks of Tourette Syndrome and Chronic Tic Disorders. A Population-Based Cohort Study.

PubMed

Mataix-Cols, David; Isomura, Kayoko; Pérez-Vigil, Ana; Chang, Zheng; Rück, Christian; Larsson, K Johan; Leckman, James F; Serlachius, Eva; Larsson, Henrik; Lichtenstein, Paul

2015-08-01

Tic disorders, including Tourette syndrome (TS) and chronic tic disorders (CTDs), are assumed to be strongly familial and heritable. Although gene-searching efforts are well under way, precise estimates of familial risk and heritability are lacking. Previous controlled family studies were small and typically conducted within specialist clinics, resulting in potential ascertainment biases. They were also underpowered to disentangle genetic from environmental factors that contribute to the observed familiality. Twin studies have been either very small or based on parent-reported tics in population-based (nonclinical) twin samples. To provide unbiased estimates of familial risk and heritability of tic disorders at the population level. In this population cohort, multigenerational family study, we used a validated algorithm to identify 4826 individuals diagnosed as having TS or CTDs (76.2% male) in the Swedish National Patient Register from January 1, 1969, through December 31, 2009. We studied risks for TS or CTDs in all biological relatives of probands compared with relatives of unaffected individuals (matched on a 1:10 ratio) from the general population. Structural equation modeling was used to estimate the heritability of tic disorders. The risk for tic disorders among relatives of probands with tic disorders increased proportionally to the degree of genetic relatedness. The risks for first-degree relatives (odds ratio [OR], 18.69; 95% CI, 14.53-24.05) were significantly higher than for second-degree relatives (OR, 4.58; 95% CI, 3.22-6.52) and third-degree relatives (OR, 3.07; 95% CI, 2.08-4.51). First-degree relatives at similar genetic distances (eg, parents, siblings, and offspring) had similar risks for tic disorders despite different degrees of shared environment. The risks for full siblings (50% genetic similarity; OR, 17.68; 95% CI, 12.90-24.23) were significantly higher than those for maternal half siblings (25% genetic similarity; OR, 4.41; 95

Extinction-effective population index: incorporating life-history variations in population viability analysis.

PubMed

Fujiwara, Masami

2007-09-01

Viability status of populations is a commonly used measure for decision-making in the management of populations. One of the challenges faced by managers is the need to consistently allocate management effort among populations. This allocation should in part be based on comparison of extinction risks among populations. Unfortunately, common criteria that use minimum viable population size or count-based population viability analysis (PVA) often do not provide results that are comparable among populations, primarily because they lack consistency in determining population size measures and threshold levels of population size (e.g., minimum viable population size and quasi-extinction threshold). Here I introduce a new index called the "extinction-effective population index," which accounts for differential effects of demographic stochasticity among organisms with different life-history strategies and among individuals in different life stages. This index is expected to become a new way of determining minimum viable population size criteria and also complement the count-based PVA. The index accounts for the difference in life-history strategies of organisms, which are modeled using matrix population models. The extinction-effective population index, sensitivity, and elasticity are demonstrated in three species of Pacific salmonids. The interpretation of the index is also provided by comparing them with existing demographic indices. Finally, a measure of life-history-specific effect of demographic stochasticity is derived.

Organochlorine Pesticides and Risk of Endometriosis: Findings from a Population-Based Case–Control Study

PubMed Central

De Roos, Anneclaire J.; Thompson, Mary Lou; Sathyanarayana, Sheela; Scholes, Delia; Barr, Dana Boyd; Holt, Victoria L.

2013-01-01

Background: Endometriosis is considered an estrogen-dependent disease. Persistent environmental chemicals that exhibit hormonal properties, such as organochlorine pesticides (OCPs), may affect endometriosis risk. Objective: We investigated endometriosis risk in relation to environmental exposure to OCPs. Methods: We conducted the present analyses using data from the Women’s Risk of Endometriosis (WREN) study, a population-based case–control study of endometriosis conducted among 18- to 49-year-old female enrollees of a large health care system in western Washington State. OCP concentrations were measured in sera from surgically confirmed endometriosis cases (n = 248) first diagnosed between 1996 and 2001 and from population-based controls (n = 538). We estimated odds ratios (OR) and 95% CIs using unconditional logistic regression, adjusting for age, reference date year, serum lipids, education, race/ethnicity, smoking, and alcohol intake. Results: Our data suggested increased endometriosis risk associated with serum concentrations of β-hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) (third vs. lowest quartile: OR = 1.7; 95% CI: 1.0, 2.8; highest vs. lowest quartile OR = 1.3; 95% CI: 0.8, 2.4) and mirex (highest vs. lowest category: OR = 1.5; 95% CI: 1.0, 2.2). The association between serum β-HCH concentrations and endometriosis was stronger in analyses restricting cases to those with ovarian endometriosis (third vs. lowest quartile: OR = 2.5; 95% CI: 1.5, 5.2; highest vs. lowest quartile: OR = 2.5; 95% CI: 1.1, 5.3). Conclusions: In our case–control study of women enrolled in a large health care system in the U.S. Pacific Northwest, serum concentrations of β-HCH and mirex were positively associated with endometriosis. Extensive past use of environmentally persistent OCPs in the United States or present use in other countries may affect the health of reproductive-age women. Citation: Upson K, De Roos AJ, Thompson ML, Sathyanarayana S, Scholes D, Barr DB, Holt VL. 2013

Estimating risk factors for HIV infection among women in Mozambique using population-based survey data.

PubMed

Dias, Sara S; Mbofana, Francisco; Cassy, Sheyla R; Dias, Sónia; Augusto, Gonçalo F; Agadjanian, Victor; Martins, Maria R O

2018-03-01

The use of population-based survey data together with sound statistical methods can enhance better estimation of HIV risk factors and explain variations across subgroups of the population. The distribution and determinants of HIV infection in populations must be taken into consideration. We analysed data from the HIV Prevalence and Behaviour Survey in Mozambique aiming to find risk factors associated with HIV infection among Mozambican women. The paper provides a complex survey logistic regression model to explain the variation in HIV seropositivity using demographic, socio-economic and behavioural factors. Results show that women aged 25-29 years, living in female-headed households, living in richer households and those widowed, divorced or not living with a partner have higher odds of being HIV-positive. Findings from our study provide a unique and integrated perspective on risk factors for being HIV-positive among Mozambican women and could support the implementation of programmes aiming to reduce HIV infection in Mozambique.

Population-based estimate of trauma-related deaths for law enforcement personnel: Risks for death are higher and increasing over time.

PubMed

Eastman, Alexander L; Cripps, Michael W; Abdelfattah, Kareem R; Inaba, Kenji; Weiser, Thomas G; Spain, David A; Staudenmayer, Kristan L

2017-08-01

Trauma-related deaths remain an important public health problem. One group susceptible to death due to traumatic mechanisms is US law enforcement (LE). We hypothesized that LE officers experienced a higher chance of violent death compared with the general US population and that risks have increased over time. The National Institute on Occupational Safety and Health National Occupational Mortality Surveillance is a population-based survey of occupational deaths. It includes data for workers who died during 1985 to 1998 in one of 30 US states (EARLY period). Additional deaths were added from 23 US states in 1999, 2003 to 2004, 2007 to 2010 (LATE period). Mortality rates are estimated by calculating proportionate mortality ratios (PMR). A PMR above 100 is considered to exceed the average background risk for all occupations. All adults older than 18 years whose primary occupation was listed as "law enforcement worker" were included in the analysis. Law enforcement personnel were more likely to die from an injury compared with the general population (Fig. 1). The overall PMR for injury in EARLY was 111 (95% confidence interval [CI], 108-114; p < 0.01), and for LATE was 118 (95% CI, 110-127; p < 0.01). Four mechanisms of death reached statistical significance: motor vehicle traffic (MVT)-driver, MVT-other, intentional self-harm, and assault/homicide. The highest PMR in EARLY was associated with firearms (PMR, 272; 95% CI, 207-350; p < 0.01). The highest PMR in LATE was associated with death due to being a driver in an MVT (PMR, 194; 95% CI, 169-222; p < 0.01). There were differences in risk of death by race and sex. White females had the highest PMR due to assault and homicide (PMR, 317; 95% CI, 164-554; p < 0.01). All groups had similar risks of death due to intentional self-harm (PMR, 130-171). The risk of death for US LE officers is high and increasing over time, suggesting an at-risk population that requires further interventions. Targeted efforts based on risk

Factors that affect risk for pancreatic disease in the general population: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies.

PubMed

Alsamarrai, Ammar; Das, Stephanie L M; Windsor, John A; Petrov, Maxim S

2014-10-01

Pancreatic diseases place significant burdens on health care systems worldwide. However, there is lack of agreement about which factors increase or reduce risk for pancreatic disease. We reviewed high-quality studies of factors that affect risk for pancreatic diseases in the general population. We searched 3 databases (Medline, Embase, and Scopus) for prospective cohort studies of modifiable risk and/or protective factors for acute pancreatitis, chronic pancreatitis, and pancreatic cancer in adult populations. Factors that were investigated in 2 or more studies were assessed by meta-analysis if the required data were available. Subgroup analyses were performed when appropriate. Outcome measures were relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). Our analysis included 51 population-based studies with more than 3 million individuals and nearly 11,000 patients with pancreatic diseases. A total of 31 different factors were investigated. Current tobacco use was the single most important risk factor for pancreatic diseases (RR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.54-2.27), followed by obesity (RR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.15-1.92) and heavy use of alcohol (RR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.19-1.58). Tobacco and heavy use of alcohol had bigger effects on risk of acute pancreatitis and chronic pancreatitis than pancreatic cancer. Vegetable consumption (RR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.57-0.88) and fruit consumption (RR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.60-0.90) provided the greatest degree of protection against pancreatic diseases on the basis of meta-analyses. Vegetable consumption had stronger association with protection against acute pancreatitis and fruit consumption with protection against pancreatic cancer. On the basis of systematic review and meta-analysis, current tobacco use, obesity, and heavy use of alcohol are associated with significant increases in risk for pancreatic diseases. Vegetables and fruit consumption are associated with reduced risk for pancreatic diseases. Prevention strategies for acute pancreatitis, chronic

A serotonin transporter gene (SLC6A4) polymorphism is associated with reduced risk of irritable bowel syndrome in American and Asian population: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Areeshi, Mohammed Y; Haque, Shafiul; Panda, Aditya K; Mandal, Raju K

2013-01-01

Association studies of serotonin transporter gene SLC6A4 I/S polymorphism and irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) have shown inconsistent and contradictory results among different populations. In the present study, meta-analysis was performed to evaluate the association between SLC6A4 I/S polymorphism and IBS susceptibility. Systemic assessment was performed for the published studies based on the association of SLC6A4 I/S polymorphism and IBS risk from PubMed (Medline), EMBASE search. A meta-analysis was done to appraise the said association. Pooled odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for allele contrast, homozygous, heterozygous, dominant and recessive genetic model. A total of twelve studies comprising 2068 IBS cases and 2076 controls were included in this meta-analysis. Overall, no significant results were obtained for S allele carrier (S vs. I: p=0.488; OR=1.073, 95% CI=0.879 to 1.311) Co-dominant (SS vs. II; p=0.587; OR=1.112, 95% CI=0.758 to 1.631), (IS vs. II; p=0.361; OR=0.878, 95% CI=0.665 to 1.160). Similarly, dominant (SS+IS vs. II: p=0.853; OR=0.974, 95% CI=0.736 to 1.288) and recessive (SS vs. II+IS: p=0.267; OR=1.172, 95% CI=0.886 to 1.522) genetic models did not demonstrate risk. In the subgroup population based analysis, reduced risks were found in American (IS vs. II: p=0.009; OR=0.685, 95% CI=0.516 to 0.908) and Asian (SS+IS vs. II; p=0.001; OR=0.116, 95% CI=0.068 to 0.197) population. However, no risk was observed in European population. This investigation clearly demonstrates that SLC6A4 (Ins/Del) polymorphism is associated with reduced risk of IBS in American and Asian population. However, future well-designed studies with stratified case control and biological characterization will be needed to validate this finding.

Train integrity detection risk analysis based on PRISM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Yuan

2018-04-01

GNSS based Train Integrity Monitoring System (TIMS) is an effective and low-cost detection scheme for train integrity detection. However, as an external auxiliary system of CTCS, GNSS may be influenced by external environments, such as uncertainty of wireless communication channels, which may lead to the failure of communication and positioning. In order to guarantee the reliability and safety of train operation, a risk analysis method of train integrity detection based on PRISM is proposed in this article. First, we analyze the risk factors (in GNSS communication process and the on-board communication process) and model them. Then, we evaluate the performance of the model in PRISM based on the field data. Finally, we discuss how these risk factors influence the train integrity detection process.

Probiotic use in at-risk populations.

PubMed

Sanders, Mary Ellen; Merenstein, Daniel J; Ouwehand, Arthur C; Reid, Gregor; Salminen, Seppo; Cabana, Michael D; Paraskevakos, George; Leyer, Gregory

To inform health care providers about quality standards for manufacture of probiotic products being recommended for at-risk patient populations. Probiotics are used in a variety of clinical settings, sometimes in at-risk populations for therapeutic endpoints. Although probiotics might not be approved as drugs, they are sometimes used for the prevention or treatment of disease. In the United States, and many regions of the world, probiotic products are marketed as dietary supplements (not drugs) and are therefore subject to different manufacturing and quality control standards than approved drugs are. Health care providers need to be assured that probiotic products used in at-risk populations are safe for this use. Pharmacists should require certificates of analysis, which document quality standards, from manufacturers of products stocked in hospital formularies or other pharmacies dispensing to at-risk people. Although responsible manufacturers use stringent quality standards on their processes and finished products, using a third party to verify compliance with manufacturing and accuracy of product labeling adds assurance to end users that the product is of high quality. It is in patients' best interest to use probiotics in the prevention and treatment of conditions when the evidence is convincing. To protect high-risk patients, probiotic products should meet stringent microbiological standards. Product testing results should be available for review before recommending probiotic products to at-risk individuals. For products used in at-risk populations, manufacturers should provide this information or participate in a third-party verification program that certifies compliance. Copyright © 2016 American Pharmacists Association®. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk of hip fracture in Addison's disease: a population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Björnsdottir, S; Sääf, M; Bensing, S; Kämpe, O; Michaëlsson, K; Ludvigsson, J F

2011-08-01

The results of studies of bone mineral density in Addison's disease (AD) are inconsistent. There are no published data on hip fracture risk in patients with AD. In this study, we compare hip fracture risk in adults with and without AD. A population-based cohort study. Through the Swedish National Patient Register and the Total Population Register, we identified 3219 patients without prior hip fracture who were diagnosed with AD at the age of ≥30 years during the period 1964-2006 and 31 557 age- and sex-matched controls. Time to hip fracture was measured. We observed 221 hip fractures (6.9%) in patients with AD and 846 (2.7%) in the controls. Patients with AD had a higher risk of hip fracture [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.8; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.6-2.1; P < 0.001]. This risk increase was independent of sex and age at or calendar period of diagnosis. Risk estimates did not change with adjustment for type 1 diabetes, autoimmune thyroid disease, rheumatoid arthritis or coeliac disease. Women diagnosed with AD ≤50 years old had the highest risk of hip fracture (HR = 2.7; 95 % CI, 1.6-4.5). We found a positive association between hip fracture and undiagnosed AD [odds ratio (OR) = 2.4; 95 % CI, 2.1-3.0] with the highest risk estimates in the last year before AD diagnosis (OR = 2.8; 95 % CI, 1.8-4.2). Both clinically undiagnosed and diagnosed AD was associated with hip fractures, with the highest relative risk seen in women diagnosed with AD ≤50 years of age. © 2011 The Association for the Publication of the Journal of Internal Medicine.

Populations at Risk for Alveolar Echinococcosis, France

PubMed Central

Piarroux, Martine; Piarroux, Renaud; Knapp, Jenny; Bardonnet, Karine; Dumortier, Jérôme; Watelet, Jérôme; Gerard, Alain; Beytout, Jean; Abergel, Armand; Bresson-Hadni, Solange

2013-01-01

During 1982–2007, alveolar echinococcosis (AE) was diagnosed in 407 patients in France, a country previously known to register half of all European patients. To better define high-risk groups in France, we conducted a national registry-based study to identify areas where persons were at risk and spatial clusters of cases. We interviewed 180 AE patients about their way of life and compared responses to those of 517 controls. We found that almost all AE patients lived in 22 départements in eastern and central France (relative risk 78.63, 95% CI 52.84–117.02). Classification and regression tree analysis showed that the main risk factor was living in AE-endemic areas. There, most at-risk populations lived in rural settings (odds ratio [OR] 66.67, 95% CI 6.21–464.51 for farmers and OR 6.98, 95% CI 2.88–18.25 for other persons) or gardened in nonrural settings (OR 4.30, 95% CI 1.82–10.91). These findings can help sensitization campaigns focus on specific groups. PMID:23647623

Migraine and risk of stroke: a national population-based twin study.

PubMed

Lantz, Maria; Sieurin, Johanna; Sjölander, Arvid; Waldenlind, Elisabet; Sjöstrand, Christina; Wirdefeldt, Karin

2017-10-01

Numerous studies have indicated an increased risk for stroke in patients with migraine, especially migraine with aura; however, many studies used self-reported migraine and only a few controlled for familial factors. We aimed to investigate migraine as a risk factor for stroke in a Swedish population-based twin cohort, and whether familial factors contribute to an increased risk. The study population included twins without prior cerebrovascular disease who answered a headache questionnaire during 1998 and 2002 for twins born 1935-58 and during 2005-06 for twins born between 1959 and 1985. Migraine with and without aura and probable migraine was defined by an algorithm mapping on to clinical diagnostic criteria according to the International Classification of Headache Disorders. Stroke diagnoses were obtained from the national patient and cause of death registers. Twins were followed longitudinally, by linkage of national registers, from date of interview until date of first stroke, death, or end of study on 31 Dec 2014. In total, 8635 twins had any migraineous headache, whereof 3553 had migraine with aura and 5082 had non-aura migraineous headache (including migraine without aura and probable migraine), and 44 769 twins had no migraine. During a mean follow-up time of 11.9 years we observed 1297 incident cases of stroke. The Cox proportional hazards model with attained age as underlying time scale was used to estimate hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals for stroke including ischaemic and haemorrhagic subtypes related to migraine with aura, non-aura migraineous headache, and any migraineous headache. Analyses were adjusted for gender and cardiovascular risk factors. Where appropriate; within-pair analyses were performed to control for confounding by familial factors. The age- and gender-adjusted hazard ratio for stroke related to migraine with aura was 1.27 (95% confidence interval 1.00-1.62), P = 0.05, and 1.07 (95% confidence interval 0.91-1.26), P = 0

Population-based Study of Risk Polymorphisms Associated with Vascular Disorders and Dementia

PubMed Central

Teijido, Óscar; Carril, Juan Carlos; Cacabelos, Ramón

2017-01-01

Introduction: Cardiovascular and neurodegenerative disorders are among the major causes of mortality in the developed countries. Population studies evaluate the genetic risk, i.e. the probability of an individual carrying a specific disease-associated polymorphism. Identification of risk polymorphisms is essential for an accurate diagnosis or prognosis of a number of pathologies. Aims: The aim of this study was to characterize the influence of risk polymorphisms associated with lipid metabolism, hypertension, thrombosis, and dementia, in a large population of Spanish individuals affected by a variety of brain and vascular disorders as well as metabolic syndrome. Material & Method: We performed a cross-sectional study on 4415 individuals from a widespread regional distribution in Spain (48.15% males and 51.85% females), with mental, neurodegenerative, cerebrovascular, and metabolic disorders. We evaluated polymorphisms in 20 genes involved in obesity, vascular and cardiovascular risk, and dementia in our population and compared it with representative Spanish and European populations. Risk polymorphisms in ACE, AGT(235), IL6(573), PSEN1, and APOE (specially the APOE-ε4 allele) are representative of our population as compared to the reference data of Spanish and European individuals. Conclusion: The significantly higher distribution of risk polymorphisms in PSEN1 and APOE-ε4 is characteristic of a representative number of patients with Alzheimer’s disease; whereas polymorphisms in ACE, AGT(235), and IL6(573), are most probably related with the high number of patients with metabolic syndrome or cerebrovascular damage. PMID:29081698

Risk of Suicide Attempt in Poststroke Patients: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

PubMed

Harnod, Tomor; Lin, Cheng-Li; Kao, Chia-Hung

2018-01-10

This nationwide population-based cohort study evaluated the risk of and risk factors for suicide attempt in poststroke patients in Taiwan. The poststroke and nonstroke cohorts consisted of 713 690 patients and 1 426 009 controls, respectively. Adults (aged >18 years) who received new stroke diagnoses according to the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM ; codes 430-438) between 2000 and 2011 were included in the poststroke cohort. We calculated the adjusted hazard ratio for suicide attempt ( ICD-9-CM codes E950-E959) after adjustment for age, sex, monthly income, urbanization level, occupation category, and various comorbidities. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to measure the cumulative incidence of suicide attempt, and the Fine and Gray method was used as a competing event when estimating death subhazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals between groups. The cumulative incidence of suicide attempt was higher in the poststroke cohort, and the adjusted hazard ratio of suicide attempt was 2.20 (95% confidence interval, 2.04-2.37) compared with that of the controls. The leading risk factors for poststroke suicide attempt were earning low monthly income (<660 US dollars), living in less urbanized regions, doing manual labor, and having a stroke before age 50 years. The attempted suicide risk did not differ significantly between male and female patients in this study. These results convey crucial information to clinicians and governments for preventing suicide attempt in poststroke patients in Taiwan and other Asian countries. © 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Quantifying population-level risks using an individual-based model: sea otters, Harlequin Ducks, and the Exxon Valdez oil spill.

PubMed

Harwell, Mark A; Gentile, John H; Parker, Keith R

2012-07-01

Ecological risk assessments need to advance beyond evaluating risks to individuals that are largely based on toxicity studies conducted on a few species under laboratory conditions, to assessing population-level risks to the environment, including considerations of variability and uncertainty. Two individual-based models (IBMs), recently developed to assess current risks to sea otters and seaducks in Prince William Sound more than 2 decades after the Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS), are used to explore population-level risks. In each case, the models had previously shown that there were essentially no remaining risks to individuals from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) derived from the EVOS. New sensitivity analyses are reported here in which hypothetical environmental exposures to PAHs were heuristically increased until assimilated doses reached toxicity reference values (TRVs) derived at the no-observed-adverse-effects and lowest-observed-adverse-effects levels (NOAEL and LOAEL, respectively). For the sea otters, this was accomplished by artificially increasing the number of sea otter pits that would intersect remaining patches of subsurface oil residues by orders of magnitude over actual estimated rates. Similarly, in the seaduck assessment, the PAH concentrations in the constituents of diet, sediments, and seawater were increased in proportion to their relative contributions to the assimilated doses by orders of magnitude over measured environmental concentrations, to reach the NOAEL and LOAEL thresholds. The stochastic IBMs simulated millions of individuals. From these outputs, frequency distributions were derived of assimilated doses for populations of 500,000 sea otters or seaducks in each of 7 or 8 classes, respectively. Doses to several selected quantiles were analyzed, ranging from the 1-in-1000th most-exposed individuals (99.9% quantile) to the median-exposed individuals (50% quantile). The resulting families of quantile curves provide the basis for

Use of fertility drugs and risk of ovarian cancer: Danish Population Based Cohort Study.

PubMed

Jensen, Allan; Sharif, Heidi; Frederiksen, Kirsten; Kjaer, Susanne Krüger

2009-02-05

To examine the effects of fertility drugs on overall risk of ovarian cancer using data from a large cohort of infertile women. Population based cohort study. Danish hospitals and private fertility clinics. 54,362 women with infertility problems referred to all Danish fertility clinics during 1963-98. The median age at first evaluation of infertility was 30 years (range 16-55 years), and the median age at the end of follow-up was 47 (range 18-81) years. Included in the analysis were 156 women with invasive epithelial ovarian cancer (cases) and 1241 subcohort members identified in the cohort during follow-up in 2006. Effect of four groups of fertility drugs (gonadotrophins, clomifene citrate, human chorionic gonadotrophin, and gonadotrophin releasing hormone) on overall risk of ovarian cancer after adjustment for potential confounding factors. Analyses within cohort showed no overall increased risk of ovarian cancer after any use of gonadotrophins (rate ratio 0.83, 95% confidence interval 0.50 to 1.37), clomifene (1.14, 0.79 to 1.64), human chorionic gonadotrophin (0.89, 0.62 to 1.29), or gonadotrophin releasing hormone (0.80, 0.42 to 1.51). Furthermore, no associations were found between all four groups of fertility drugs and number of cycles of use, length of follow-up, or parity. No convincing association was found between use of fertility drugs and risk of ovarian cancer.

Use of fluroquinolone and risk of Achilles tendon rupture: a population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Sode, Jacob; Obel, Niels; Hallas, Jesper; Lassen, Annmarie

2007-05-01

Several case-control studies have reported that the use of fluoroquinolone increases the risk of rupture of the Achilles tendon. Our aim was to estimate this risk by means of a population-based cohort approach. Data on Achilles tendon ruptures and fluoroquinolone use were retrieved from three population-based databases that include information on residents of Funen County (population: 470,000) in primary and secondary care during the period 1991-1999. A study cohort of all 28,262 first-time users of fluoroquinolone and all incident cases of Achilles tendon ruptures were identified. The incidence rate of Achilles tendon ruptures among users and non-users of fluoroquinolones and the standardised incidence rate ratio associating fluoroquinolon use with Achilles tendon rupture were the main outcome measures. Between 1991 and 2002 the incidence of Achilles tendon rupture increased from 22.1 to 32.6/100,000 person-years. Between 1991 and 1999 the incidence of fluoroquinolone users was 722/100,000 person-years, with no apparent trend over time. Within 90 days of their first use of fluoroquinolone, five individuals had a rupture of the Achilles tendon; the expected number was 1.6, yielding an age- and sex-standardised incidence ratio of 3.1 [(95% confidence interval (95%CI): 1.0-7.3). The 90-day cumulative incidence of Achilles tendon ruptures among fluoroquinolone users was 17.7/100,000 (95%CI: 5.7-41.3), which is an increase of 12.0/100,000 (95%CI: 0.0-35.6) compared to the background population. Fluoroquinolone use triples the risk of Achilles tendon rupture, but the incidence among users is low.

The priority group index: a proposed new method incorporating high risk and population burden to identify target populations for public health interventions.

PubMed

Zhang, Bo; Cohen, Joanna E; OʼConnor, Shawn

2014-01-01

Selection of priority groups is important for health interventions. However, no quantitative method has been developed. To develop a quantitative method to support the process of selecting priority groups for public health interventions based on both high risk and population health burden. Secondary data analysis of the 2010 Canadian Community Health Survey. Canadian population. Survey respondents. We identified priority groups for 3 diseases: heart disease, stroke, and chronic lower respiratory diseases. Three measures--prevalence, population counts, and adjusted odds ratios (OR)--were calculated for subpopulations (sociodemographic characteristics and other risk factors). A Priority Group Index (PGI) was calculated by summing the rank scores of these 3 measures. Of the 30 priority groups identified by the PGI (10 for each of the 3 disease outcomes), 7 were identified on the basis of high prevalence only, 5 based on population count only, 3 based on high OR only, and the remainder based on combinations of these. The identified priority groups were all in line with the literature as risk factors for the 3 diseases, such as elderly people for heart disease and stroke and those with low income for chronic lower respiratory diseases. The PGI was thus able to balance both high risk and population burden approaches in selecting priority groups, and thus it would address health inequities as well as disease burden in the overall population. The PGI is a quantitative method to select priority groups for public health interventions; it has the potential to enhance the effective use of limited public resources.

Prenatal stress and risk of asthma hospitalization in the offspring: a Swedish population-based study.

PubMed

Khashan, Ali S; Wicks, Susanne; Dalman, Christina; Henriksen, Tine B; Li, Jiong; Mortensen, Preben B; Kenny, Louise C

2012-01-01

Recent research suggested that maternal stress and anxiety increase the risk of asthma and eczema in the offspring. In this study, we aimed to study whether maternal exposure to death of a spouse or a child is associated with risk of asthma hospitalization in the offspring using a very large population-based cohort. In a cohort of 3.2 million births in Sweden between January 1, 1973, and December 31, 2004, mothers were considered exposed if their spouse or child died up to 6 months before or during pregnancy. Offspring were followed up from birth to their death, migration, first hospitalization with asthma, or December 31, 2006, whichever came first; hospital admissions were identified by linkage of several national Swedish registers. Log-linear Poisson regression was used for data analysis. Overall, the risk of offspring asthma was increased with any prenatal exposure to bereavement in any exposure period (adjusted relative risk [RR] = 1.20 [95% confidence interval {CI} = 1.03-1.39]). The risk was higher when the exposure period was restricted to pregnancy only (adjusted RR = 1.43 [95% CI = 1.06-1.92]). Furthermore, the risk of asthma was increased in relation to death of a spouse during pregnancy (adjusted RR = 1.59 [95% CI = 1.10-2.30]). These findings suggest that prenatal exposure to severe life events increases the risk of hospitalization for asthma in the offspring. Fetal programming may be a plausible explanation for the association.

Sarcoidosis Increases Risk of Hospitalized Infection. A Population-based Study, 1976-2013.

PubMed

Ungprasert, Patompong; Crowson, Cynthia S; Matteson, Eric L

2017-05-01

Patients with sarcoidosis may have an increased risk of infection similar to other immune-mediated disorders. However, the data are still limited. To investigate the risk of hospitalized infection among patients with sarcoidosis, using a population-based cohort. Using the Rochester Epidemiology Project record-linkage system, a cohort of incident cases of sarcoidosis in Olmsted County, Minnesota from 1976 to 2013 was identified. Diagnosis was confirmed by individual medical record review. For each patient with sarcoidosis, a sex- and age-matched comparator without sarcoidosis was randomly selected from the same population. Medical records of cases and comparators were individually reviewed for hospitalized infection that occurred after the index date. The cumulative incidence of hospitalized infection overall and by type of infection, adjusted for the competing risk of death, was estimated. Cox models were used to compare the rate of first hospitalized infection between cases and comparators and to evaluate the association between use of immunosuppressive agents and hospitalized infection among cases. Three hundred and forty-five cases and 345 comparators were identified. Patients with sarcoidosis had a higher risk of a hospitalized infection with a hazard ratio (HR) of 2.00 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.41-2.84), adjusted for age, sex, and calendar year of index date. Use of oral glucocorticoids was a significant predictor of hospitalized infection with an HR of 3.03 (95% CI, 1.33-6.90) for oral glucocorticoids not exceeding 10 mg/day and an HR of 4.48 (95% CI, 1.54-13.03) for oral glucocorticoids greater than 10 mg/day. Patients with sarcoidosis are at increased risk of hospitalized infection. Glucocorticoid therapy is strongly associated with this increased risk.

Prevalence and risk factors for primary open-angle glaucoma in a rural northeast China population: a population-based survey in Bin County, Harbin

PubMed Central

Sun, J; Zhou, X; Kang, Y; Yan, L; Sun, X; Sui, H; Qin, D; Yuan, H

2012-01-01

Purpose To estimate the prevalence and associated risk factors of primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) in a rural population in northeast China. Methods A population-based survey was conducted within Bin County, Harbin of northeast China. Glaucoma was diagnosed using International Society of Geographical and Epidemiological Ophthalmology criteria. All the subjects underwent a complete ophthalmic examination. Results A total of 4956 (86.0%) of 5762 subjects aged 40 years or older were examined. The mean intraocular pressure (IOP) of right eyes was 14.0 (95% confidence interval (CI), 13.9 to 14.1) mm Hg. The prevalence of POAG was 0.71% (35/4956, 95% CI, 0.47 to 0.93). In these POAG subjects, 17 (48.6%) had elevated IOP >21 mm Hg in either eye, 3 (8.8%) participants had been treated by laser trabeculoplasty or trabeculectomy and were known to have POAG. Vision impairment to varying degrees was present in 20 subjects (58.8%) with 1 subject blind in both eyes and 8 subjects blind in one eye. On multivariate analysis, age, family history of glaucoma, systemic hypertension, and IOP were regarded as significant independent risk factors. Conclusions POAG is a disease of serious consequence and of low diagnosis and treatment rates in rural northeast China. Age, family history of glaucoma, systemic hypertension, and IOP remain as significant independent risk factors for POAG. PMID:22157917

Prenatal antidepressant use and risk of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder in offspring: population based cohort study

PubMed Central

Man, Kenneth K C; Chan, Esther W; Ip, Patrick; Coghill, David; Simonoff, Emily; Chan, Phyllis K L; Lau, Wallis C Y; Schuemie, Martijn J; Sturkenboom, Miriam C J M

2017-01-01

Objective To assess the potential association between prenatal use of antidepressants and the risk of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in offspring. Design Population based cohort study. Setting Data from the Hong Kong population based electronic medical records on the Clinical Data Analysis and Reporting System. Participants 190 618 children born in Hong Kong public hospitals between January 2001 and December 2009 and followed-up to December 2015. Main outcome measure Hazard ratio of maternal antidepressant use during pregnancy and ADHD in children aged 6 to 14 years, with an average follow-up time of 9.3 years (range 7.4-11.0 years). Results Among 190 618 children, 1252 had a mother who used prenatal antidepressants. 5659 children (3.0%) were given a diagnosis of ADHD or received treatment for ADHD. The crude hazard ratio of maternal antidepressant use during pregnancy was 2.26 (P<0.01) compared with non-use. After adjustment for potential confounding factors, including maternal psychiatric disorders and use of other psychiatric drugs, the adjusted hazard ratio was reduced to 1.39 (95% confidence interval 1.07 to 1.82, P=0.01). Likewise, similar results were observed when comparing children of mothers who had used antidepressants before pregnancy with those who were never users (1.76, 1.36 to 2.30, P<0.01). The risk of ADHD in the children of mothers with psychiatric disorders was higher compared with the children of mothers without psychiatric disorders even if the mothers had never used antidepressants (1.84, 1.54 to 2.18, P<0.01). All sensitivity analyses yielded similar results. Sibling matched analysis identified no significant difference in risk of ADHD in siblings exposed to antidepressants during gestation and those not exposed during gestation (0.54, 0.17 to 1.74, P=0.30). Conclusions The findings suggest that the association between prenatal use of antidepressants and risk of ADHD in offspring can be partially explained by

Risk factors for first trimester miscarriage--results from a UK-population-based case-control study.

PubMed

Maconochie, N; Doyle, P; Prior, S; Simmons, R

2007-02-01

The aim of this study was to examine the association between biological, behavioural and lifestyle risk factors and risk of miscarriage. Population-based case-control study. Case-control study nested within a population-based, two-stage postal survey of reproductive histories of women randomly sampled from the UK electoral register. Six hundred and three women aged 18-55 years whose most recent pregnancy had ended in first trimester miscarriage (<13 weeks of gestation; cases) and 6116 women aged 18-55 years whose most recent pregnancy had progressed beyond 12 weeks (controls). Women were questioned about socio-demographic, behavioural and other factors in their most recent pregnancy. First trimester miscarriage. After adjustment for confounding, the following were independently associated with increased risk: high maternal age; previous miscarriage, termination and infertility; assisted conception; low pre-pregnancy body mass index; regular or high alcohol consumption; feeling stressed (including trend with number of stressful or traumatic events); high paternal age and changing partner. Previous live birth, nausea, vitamin supplementation and eating fresh fruits and vegetables daily were associated with reduced risk, as were feeling well enough to fly or to have sex. After adjustment for nausea, we did not confirm an association with caffeine consumption, smoking or moderate or occasional alcohol consumption; nor did we find an association with educational level, socio-economic circumstances or working during pregnancy. The results confirm that advice to encourage a healthy diet, reduce stress and promote emotional wellbeing might help women in early pregnancy (or planning a pregnancy) reduce their risk of miscarriage. Findings of increased risk associated with previous termination, stress, change of partner and low pre-pregnancy weight are noteworthy, and we recommend further work to confirm these findings in other study populations.

Occupation and keratinocyte cancer risk: a population-based case-control study.

PubMed

Marehbian, Josh; Colt, Joanne S; Baris, Dalsu; Stewart, Patricia; Stukel, Therese A; Spencer, Steven K; Karagas, Margaret R

2007-10-01

The aim of our study was to identify occupations associated with increased risk of basal cell carcinoma (BCC) and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC). We conducted a population-based case-control study of BCC and SCC in New Hampshire. Cases (n = 599 BCC, n = 290 SCC) and controls (n = 524) completed a self-administered residence and work history questionnaire and personal interview regarding major risk factors for skin cancer. Reported jobs were coded using the Standardized Occupational Classification system (SOC). Odds ratios (ORs) and confidence intervals (CIs) for BCC and SCC were calculated for men and women separately using unconditional logistic regression models taking into account age, education, skin reaction to sun, history of painful sunburns, time spent outdoors, and for SCC, smoking. Among men, we observed elevated risks of both BCC and SCC among groundskeepers and gardeners, except farm (SOC 5622). We also found that garage and service station-related occupations (SOCs 873) and to some extent food/beverage preparation/service occupations (SOC 521) were associated with BCC risk among men. Women in health services occupations (SOC 523) had elevated risks for both tumors, especially for BCC. Additionally, administrative support (SOC 46/47) occupations were related to BCC risk among women. Other occupations were associated with excess risks, but without consistent trends by duration of employment. We observed several occupations associated with elevated BCC and SCC risk. These results resemble reported findings for cutaneous melanoma and are generally consistent with the few available studies on keratinocyte cancers.

Secondary Primary Malignancy Risk in Patients With Ovarian Cancer in Taiwan: A Nationwide Population-Based Study.

PubMed

Hung, Yi-Ping; Liu, Chia-Jen; Hu, Yu-Wen; Chen, Min-Huang; Li, Chun-Pin; Yeh, Chiu-Mei; Chiou, Tzeon-Jye; Chen, Tzeng-Ji; Yang, Muh-Hwa; Chao, Yee

2015-09-01

To evaluate the incidence of secondary primary malignancy (SPM) in patients with ovarian cancer using a nationwide retrospective population-based dataset. Patients newly diagnosed with ovarian cancer between 1997 and 2010 were identified using Taiwan's National Health Insurance database. Patients with antecedent malignancies were excluded. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) for SPM were calculated and compared with the cancer incidence in the general population. Risk factors for cancer development were analyzed using Cox proportional hazard models. Effects of surgery, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy after ovarian cancer diagnosis were regarded as time-dependent variables to prevent immortal time bias. During the 14-year study period (follow-up of 56,214 person-years), 707 cancers developed in 12,127 patients with ovarian cancer. The SIR for all cancers was 2.78 (95% confidence interval 2.58-3.00). SIRs for follow-up periods of >5, 1-5, and <1 year were 1.87, 2.04, and 6.40, respectively. After the exclusion of SPM occurring within 1 year of ovarian cancer diagnosis, SIRs were significantly higher for cancers of the colon, rectum, and anus (2.14); lung and mediastinum (1.58); breast (1.68); cervix (1.65); uterus (7.96); bladder (3.17), and thyroid (2.23); as well as for leukemia (3.98) and others (3.83). Multivariate analysis showed that age ≥ 50 years was a significant SPM risk factor (hazard ratio [HR] 1.60). Different treatments for ovarian cancer, including radiotherapy (HR 2.07) and chemotherapy (HR 1.27), had different impacts on SPM risk. Patients with ovarian cancer are at increased risk of SPM development. Age ≥ 50 years, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy are independent risk factors. Close surveillance of patients at high risk should be considered for the early detection of SPM.

Testicular cancer risk and maternal parity: a population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Westergaard, T; Andersen, P K; Pedersen, J B; Frisch, M; Olsen, J H; Melbye, M

1998-04-01

The aim was to study, in a population-based cohort design, whether first-born sons run a higher risk of testicular cancer than later born sons; to investigate whether this difference in risk was affected by birth cohort, age of the son, maternal age, interval to previous delivery and other reproductive factors; and, finally, to evaluate to what extent changes in women's parity over time might explain the increasing incidence of testicular cancer. By using data from the Civil Registration System, a database was established of all women born in Denmark since 1935 and all their children alive in 1968 or born later. Sons with testicular cancer were identified in the Danish Cancer Registry. Among 1015994 sons followed for 15981 967 person-years, 626 developed testicular cancer (443 non-seminomas, 183 seminomas). Later born sons had a decreased risk of testicular cancer (RR = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.67-0.95) compared with first-born sons. The RR was 0.79 (95% CI = 0.64-0.98) for non-seminomas and 0.81 (95% CI = 0.58-1.13) for seminomas. There was no association between testicular cancer risk and overall parity of the mother, maternal or paternal age at the birth of the son, or maternal age at first birth. The decreased risk of testicular cancer among later born sons was not modified by age, birth cohort, interval to the previous birth, sex of the first-born child, or maternal age at birth of the son or at first birth. The increased proportion of first-borns from birth cohort 1946 to birth cohort 1969 only explained around 3% of an approximated two-fold increase in incidence between the cohorts. Our data document a distinctly higher risk of testicular cancer in first-born compared with later born sons and suggest that the most likely explanation should be sought among exposures in utero. The increase in the proportion of first-borns in the population has only contributed marginally to the increase in testicular cancer incidence.

Clinical governance and research ethics as barriers to UK low-risk population-based health research?

PubMed Central

van Teijlingen, Edwin R; Douglas, Flora; Torrance, Nicola

2008-01-01

Background Since the Helsinki Declaration was introduced in 1964 as a code of practice for clinical research, it has generally been agreed that research governance is also needed in the field of public health and health promotion research. Recently, a range of factors led to the development of more stringent bureaucratic procedures, governing the conduct of low-risk population-based health research in the United Kingdom. Methods Our paper highlights a case study of the application process to medical research ethics committees in the United Kingdom for a study of the promotion of physical activity by health care providers. The case study presented here is an illustration of the challenges in conducting low-risk population-based health research. Results Our mixed-methods approach involved a questionnaire survey of and semi-structured interviews with health professionals (who were all healthy volunteers). Since our study does not involve the participation of either patients or the general population, one would expect the application to the relevant research ethics committees to be a formality. This proved not to be the case! Conclusion Research ethics committees could be counter-productive, rather than protecting the vulnerable in the research process, they can stifle low-risk population-based health research. Research ethics in health services research is first and foremost the responsibility of the researcher(s), and we need to learn to trust health service researchers again. The burden of current research governance regulation to address the perceived ethical problems is neither appropriate nor adequate. Senior researchers/academics need to educate and train students and junior researchers in the area of research ethics, whilst at the same time reducing pressures on them that lead to unethical research, such as commercial funding, inappropriate government interference and the pressure to publish. We propose that non-invasive low-risk population-based health studies

Dietary Pattern and Risk of Hodgkin Lymphoma in a Population-Based Case-Control Study

PubMed Central

Epstein, Mara M.; Chang, Ellen T.; Zhang, Yawei; Fung, Teresa T.; Batista, Julie L.; Ambinder, Richard F.; Zheng, Tongzhang; Mueller, Nancy E.; Birmann, Brenda M.

2015-01-01

Classic Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL) has few known modifiable risk factors, and the relationship between diet and cHL risk is unclear. We performed the first investigation of an association between dietary pattern and cHL risk in 435 cHL cases and 563 population-based controls from Massachusetts and Connecticut (1997–2000) who completed baseline diet questionnaires. We identified 4 major dietary patterns (“vegetable,” “high meat,” “fruit/low-fat dairy,” “desserts/sweets”) using principal components analysis. We computed multivariable odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for associations of dietary pattern score (quartiles) with younger-adult (age <50 years), older-adult (age ≥50 years), and overall cHL risk. Secondary analyses examined associations by histological subtype and tumor Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) status. A diet high in desserts/sweets was associated with younger-adult (odds ratio(quartile 4 vs. quartile 1) = 1.60, 95% confidence interval: 1.05, 2.45; Ptrend = 0.008) and EBV-negative, younger-adult (odds ratio = 2.11, 95% confidence interval: 1.31, 3.41; Ptrend = 0.007) cHL risk. A high meat diet was associated with older-adult (odds ratio = 3.34, 95% confidence interval: 1.02, 10.91; Ptrend = 0.04) and EBV-negative, older-adult (odds ratio = 4.64, 95% confidence interval: 1.03, 20.86; Ptrend = 0.04) cHL risk. Other dietary patterns were not clearly associated with cHL. We report the first evidence for a role of dietary pattern in cHL etiology. Diets featuring high intake of meat or desserts and sweets may increase cHL risk. PMID:26182945

Estimating and mapping the population at risk of sleeping sickness.

PubMed

Simarro, Pere P; Cecchi, Giuliano; Franco, José R; Paone, Massimo; Diarra, Abdoulaye; Ruiz-Postigo, José Antonio; Fèvre, Eric M; Mattioli, Raffaele C; Jannin, Jean G

2012-01-01

Human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), also known as sleeping sickness, persists as a public health problem in several sub-Saharan countries. Evidence-based, spatially explicit estimates of population at risk are needed to inform planning and implementation of field interventions, monitor disease trends, raise awareness and support advocacy. Comprehensive, geo-referenced epidemiological records from HAT-affected countries were combined with human population layers to map five categories of risk, ranging from "very high" to "very low," and to estimate the corresponding at-risk population. Approximately 70 million people distributed over a surface of 1.55 million km(2) are estimated to be at different levels of risk of contracting HAT. Trypanosoma brucei gambiense accounts for 82.2% of the population at risk, the remaining 17.8% being at risk of infection from T. b. rhodesiense. Twenty-one million people live in areas classified as moderate to very high risk, where more than 1 HAT case per 10,000 inhabitants per annum is reported. Updated estimates of the population at risk of sleeping sickness were made, based on quantitative information on the reported cases and the geographic distribution of human population. Due to substantial methodological differences, it is not possible to make direct comparisons with previous figures for at-risk population. By contrast, it will be possible to explore trends in the future. The presented maps of different HAT risk levels will help to develop site-specific strategies for control and surveillance, and to monitor progress achieved by ongoing efforts aimed at the elimination of sleeping sickness.

Is an unfavourable cardiovascular risk profile a risk factor for vasomotor menopausal symptoms? Results of a population-based cohort study.

PubMed

van den Berg, M J; Herber-Gast, G C M; van der Schouw, Y T

2015-08-01

Evidence suggests an association between vasomotor menopausal symptoms (VMSs), i.e. hot flushes and night sweats, and cardiovascular disease. However, the causal pathway is unclear. We investigated whether an unfavourable cardiovascular risk profile is a risk factor for VMS later in life. Retrospective cohort study. Women aged 50-70 from the general population. The Prospect-European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (Prospect-EPIC) cohort is a population-based cohort of women who enrolled between 1993 and 1997. Follow-up questionnaires were sent at 5-year intervals for 15 years. Women who returned the third questionnaire, answered questions regarding lifetime VMS and did not report VMS prior to baseline were included in this study (n = 1295). At baseline, the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) was determined. We used logistic regression analysis to calculate odds ratios (ORs) for the association between baseline FRS and incident VMS. Incident VMS. At baseline (mean age ± standard deviation, 52.2 ± 3.6 years), 21.2% had a FRS > 10%. During follow-up, 40.2% of women reported the onset of VMS. Adjusted for body mass index, physical activity, education and alcohol consumption, each point increase in FRS was associated with a decreased incidence of VMS [OR, 0.94 (95% CI, 0.91-0.97)]. Additional adjustment for menopausal status attenuated the OR to null [OR, 0.98 (95% CI, 0.95-1.01)]. None of the separate FRS variables were associated with VMS after adjustment for age. In our cohort, an unfavourable cardiovascular risk profile was not associated with VMS, and therefore we found no evidence for the involvement of a vascular mechanism in the etiology of VMS. © 2014 Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

Population-based comparative analysis of risk of death in children and adolescents with epilepsy and migraine.

PubMed

Selassie, Anbesaw W; Wilson, Dulaney A; Wagner, Janelle L; Smith, Gigi; Wannamaker, Braxton B

2015-12-01

Follow-up studies of children and adolescents with epilepsy (CAW-E) have revealed higher risk of mortality than children in the general population. The mortality experience of CAW-E relative to patients with other common neurologic disorders in the pediatric age group is yet undetermined. The objectives of this study are the following: (1) to compare the causes and the adjusted risk of death in CAW-E with that of children and adolescents with migraine (CAW-M) in reference to children and adolescents with lower extremity fracture (CAW-LEF), and children and adolescents in the general population; (2) to evaluate if disparate mortality risks exist by demographic characteristics. This retrospective cohort study included 56,781 children and adolescents 0-18 years of age hospitalized or treated in an emergency or outpatient department from 2000 to 2011 for epilepsy, migraine, or lower extremity fracture from all nonfederal health care facilities. Data on deaths were acquired from linked multiple causes of death data file using person-specific unique identifiers. Time of follow-up was from initial clinical encounter to time of death or censoring date of December 31, 2011. The association of risk characteristics with mortality was examined with Cox proportional hazard model after adjusting for potential confounders. Four hundred forty-seven CAW-E and 125 CAW-M died yielding mortality rates of 8.71 and 1.36 per 1,000 person-years, respectively. The 5-year risk of death was 4.38% for CAW-E, 0.68% for CAW-M, and 0.71% for CAW-LEF. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were 3.81 (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.08-3.72) in CAW-E and 1.14 (95% CI 0.94-1.34) in CAW-M relative to CAW-LEF. Risk of death from neurodevelopmental comorbidities was 5.86 (95% CI 4.24-8.08) times greater than those without in the model that compared epilepsy with LEF. There is an elevated risk of death in CAW-E with neurodevelopmental comorbidities that remains to be proven. Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2015

Quantifying Population-Level Risks Using an Individual-Based Model: Sea Otters, Harlequin Ducks, and the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill

PubMed Central

Harwell, Mark A; Gentile, John H; Parker, Keith R

2012-01-01

Ecological risk assessments need to advance beyond evaluating risks to individuals that are largely based on toxicity studies conducted on a few species under laboratory conditions, to assessing population-level risks to the environment, including considerations of variability and uncertainty. Two individual-based models (IBMs), recently developed to assess current risks to sea otters and seaducks in Prince William Sound more than 2 decades after the Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS), are used to explore population-level risks. In each case, the models had previously shown that there were essentially no remaining risks to individuals from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) derived from the EVOS. New sensitivity analyses are reported here in which hypothetical environmental exposures to PAHs were heuristically increased until assimilated doses reached toxicity reference values (TRVs) derived at the no-observed-adverse-effects and lowest-observed-adverse-effects levels (NOAEL and LOAEL, respectively). For the sea otters, this was accomplished by artificially increasing the number of sea otter pits that would intersect remaining patches of subsurface oil residues by orders of magnitude over actual estimated rates. Similarly, in the seaduck assessment, the PAH concentrations in the constituents of diet, sediments, and seawater were increased in proportion to their relative contributions to the assimilated doses by orders of magnitude over measured environmental concentrations, to reach the NOAEL and LOAEL thresholds. The stochastic IBMs simulated millions of individuals. From these outputs, frequency distributions were derived of assimilated doses for populations of 500 000 sea otters or seaducks in each of 7 or 8 classes, respectively. Doses to several selected quantiles were analyzed, ranging from the 1-in-1000th most-exposed individuals (99.9% quantile) to the median-exposed individuals (50% quantile). The resulting families of quantile curves provide the basis for

Online self-test identifies women at high familial breast cancer risk in population-based breast cancer screening without inducing anxiety or distress.

PubMed

van Erkelens, A; Sie, A S; Manders, P; Visser, A; Duijm, L E; Mann, R M; Ten Voorde, M; Kroeze, H; Prins, J B; Hoogerbrugge, N

2017-06-01

Identifying high familial breast cancer (FBC) risk improves detection of yet unknown BRCA1/2-mutation carriers, for whom BC risk is both highly likely and potentially preventable. We assessed whether a new online self-test could identify women at high FBC risk in population-based BC screening without inducing anxiety or distress. After their visit for screening mammography, women were invited by email to take an online self-test for identifying highly increased FBC risk-based on Dutch guidelines. Exclusion criteria were previously diagnosed as increased FBC risk or a personal history of BC. Anxiety (State-Trait Anxiety Inventory Dutch Version), distress (Hospital Anxiety Depression Scale) and BC risk perception were assessed using questionnaires, which were completed immediately before and after taking the online self-test and 2 weeks later. Of the 562 women invited by email, 406 (72%) completed the online self-test while 304 also completed questionnaires (response rate 54%). After exclusion criteria, 287 (51%) were included for data analysis. Median age was 56 years (range 50-74). A high or moderate FBC risk was identified in 12 (4%) and three (1%) women, respectively. After completion of the online self-test, anxiety and BC risk perception were decreased while distress scores remained unchanged. Levels were below clinical relevance. Most women (85%) would recommend the self-test; few (3%) would not. The online self-test identified previously unknown women at high FBC risk (4%), who may carry a BRCA1/2-mutation, without inducing anxiety or distress. We therefore recommend offering this self-test to women who attend population-based screening mammography for the first time. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hyperthyroidism is a Risk Factor for Developing Adhesive Capsulitis of the Shoulder: A Nationwide Longitudinal Population-Based Study

PubMed Central

Huang, Shih-Wei; Lin, Jia-Wei; Wang, Wei-Te; Wu, Chin-Wen; Liou, Tsan-Hon; Lin, Hui-Wen

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the prevalence and risk of adhesive capsulitis among hyperthyroidism patients. The data were obtained from the Longitudinal Health Insurance Database 2005 (LHID 2005) in Taiwan, using 1 million participants and a prospective population-based 7-year cohort study of survival analysis. The ambulatory-care claim records of patients diagnosed according to the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) codes relating to hyperthyroidism between January 1, 2004 and December 31, 2007, were obtained. The prevalence and the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of adhesive capsulitis among hyperthyroid patients and the control group were estimated. Of 4472 hyperthyroid patients, 162 (671/100 000 person-years) experienced adhesive capsulitis during the 24 122 person-year follow-up period. The crude HR of stroke was 1.26 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06 to 1.49), which was larger than that of the control group. The adjusted HR of developing adhesive capsulitis was 1.22 (95% CI, 1.03 to 1.45) for hyperthyroid patients during the 7-year follow-up period, which achieved statistical significance. The results of our large-scale longitudinal population-based study indicated that hyperthyroidism is an independent risk factor of developing adhesive capsulitis. PMID:24567049

Hyperthyroidism is a risk factor for developing adhesive capsulitis of the shoulder: a nationwide longitudinal population-based study.

PubMed

Huang, Shih-Wei; Lin, Jia-Wei; Wang, Wei-Te; Wu, Chin-Wen; Liou, Tsan-Hon; Lin, Hui-Wen

2014-02-25

The purpose of this study was to investigate the prevalence and risk of adhesive capsulitis among hyperthyroidism patients. The data were obtained from the Longitudinal Health Insurance Database 2005 (LHID 2005) in Taiwan, using 1 million participants and a prospective population-based 7-year cohort study of survival analysis. The ambulatory-care claim records of patients diagnosed according to the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) codes relating to hyperthyroidism between January 1, 2004 and December 31, 2007, were obtained. The prevalence and the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of adhesive capsulitis among hyperthyroid patients and the control group were estimated. Of 4472 hyperthyroid patients, 162 (671/100,000 person-years) experienced adhesive capsulitis during the 24,122 person-year follow-up period. The crude HR of stroke was 1.26 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06 to 1.49), which was larger than that of the control group. The adjusted HR of developing adhesive capsulitis was 1.22 (95% CI, 1.03 to 1.45) for hyperthyroid patients during the 7-year follow-up period, which achieved statistical significance. The results of our large-scale longitudinal population-based study indicated that hyperthyroidism is an independent risk factor of developing adhesive capsulitis.

A GWAS meta-analysis from 5 population-based cohorts implicates ion channel genes in the pathogenesis of irritable bowel syndrome.

PubMed

Bonfiglio, F; Henström, M; Nag, A; Hadizadeh, F; Zheng, T; Cenit, M C; Tigchelaar, E; Williams, F; Reznichenko, A; Ek, W E; Rivera, N V; Homuth, G; Aghdassi, A A; Kacprowski, T; Männikkö, M; Karhunen, V; Bujanda, L; Rafter, J; Wijmenga, C; Ronkainen, J; Hysi, P; Zhernakova, A; D'Amato, M

2018-04-19

Irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) shows genetic predisposition, however, large-scale, powered gene mapping studies are lacking. We sought to exploit existing genetic (genotype) and epidemiological (questionnaire) data from a series of population-based cohorts for IBS genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and their meta-analysis. Based on questionnaire data compatible with Rome III Criteria, we identified a total of 1335 IBS cases and 9768 asymptomatic individuals from 5 independent European genotyped cohorts. Individual GWAS were carried out with sex-adjusted logistic regression under an additive model, followed by meta-analysis using the inverse variance method. Functional annotation of significant results was obtained via a computational pipeline exploiting ontology and interaction networks, and tissue-specific and gene set enrichment analyses. Suggestive GWAS signals (P ≤ 5.0 × 10 -6 ) were detected for 7 genomic regions, harboring 64 gene candidates to affect IBS risk via functional or expression changes. Functional annotation of this gene set convincingly (best FDR-corrected P = 3.1 × 10 -10 ) highlighted regulation of ion channel activity as the most plausible pathway affecting IBS risk. Our results confirm the feasibility of population-based studies for gene-discovery efforts in IBS, identify risk genes and loci to be prioritized in independent follow-ups, and pinpoint ion channels as important players and potential therapeutic targets warranting further investigation. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Increased Risk of Acute Pancreatitis in Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis: A Population-Based Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Chang, Chi Ching; Chiou, Chi Sheng; Lin, Hsiu Li; Wang, Li Hsuan; Chang, Yu Sheng; Lin, Hsiu-Chen

2015-01-01

The study was conducted to determine whether patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) are at increased risk of acute pancreatitis compared with those without RA and to determine if the risk of acute pancreatitis varied by anti-RA drug use. We used the large population-based dataset from the National Health Insurance (NHI) program in Taiwan to conduct a retrospective cohort study. Patients newly diagnosed with RA between 2000 and 2011 were referred to as the RA group. The comparator non-RA group was matched with propensity score, using age and sex, in the same time period. We presented the incidence density by 100,000 person-years. The propensity score and all variables were analyzed in fully adjusted Cox proportional hazard regression. The cumulative incidence of acute pancreatitis was assessed by Kaplan-Meier analysis, with significance based on the log-rank test. From claims data of one million enrollees randomly sampled from the Taiwan NHI database, 29,755 adults with RA were identified and 119,020 non- RA persons were matched as a comparison group. The RA cohort had higher incidence density of acute pancreatitis (185.7 versus 119.0 per 100,000 person-years) than the non-RA cohort. The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) was 1.62 (95% CI [confidence interval] 1.43–1.83) for patients with RA to develop acute pancreatitis. Oral corticosteroid use decreased the risk of acute pancreatitis (adjusted HR 0.83, 95% CI 0.73–0.94) but without a dose-dependent effect. Current use of disease modifying anti-rheumatic drugs or tumor necrosis factor blockers did not decrease the risk of acute pancreatitis. In conclusion, patients with RA are at an elevated risk of acute pancreatitis. Use of oral corticosteroids may reduce the risk of acute pancreatitis. PMID:26262880

Risk-based audit selection of dairy farms.

PubMed

van Asseldonk, M A P M; Velthuis, A G J

2014-02-01

Dairy farms are audited in the Netherlands on numerous process standards. Each farm is audited once every 2 years. Increasing demands for cost-effectiveness in farm audits can be met by introducing risk-based principles. This implies targeting subpopulations with a higher risk of poor process standards. To select farms for an audit that present higher risks, a statistical analysis was conducted to test the relationship between the outcome of farm audits and bulk milk laboratory results before the audit. The analysis comprised 28,358 farm audits and all conducted laboratory tests of bulk milk samples 12 mo before the audit. The overall outcome of each farm audit was classified as approved or rejected. Laboratory results included somatic cell count (SCC), total bacterial count (TBC), antimicrobial drug residues (ADR), level of butyric acid spores (BAB), freezing point depression (FPD), level of free fatty acids (FFA), and cleanliness of the milk (CLN). The bulk milk laboratory results were significantly related to audit outcomes. Rejected audits are likely to occur on dairy farms with higher mean levels of SCC, TBC, ADR, and BAB. Moreover, in a multivariable model, maxima for TBC, SCC, and FPD as well as standard deviations for TBC and FPD are risk factors for negative audit outcomes. The efficiency curve of a risk-based selection approach, on the basis of the derived regression results, dominated the current random selection approach. To capture 25, 50, or 75% of the population with poor process standards (i.e., audit outcome of rejected), respectively, only 8, 20, or 47% of the population had to be sampled based on a risk-based selection approach. Milk quality information can thus be used to preselect high-risk farms to be audited more frequently. Copyright © 2014 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A cost-effectiveness analysis evaluating endoscopic surveillance for gastric cancer for populations with low to intermediate risk.

PubMed

Zhou, Hui Jun; Dan, Yock Young; Naidoo, Nasheen; Li, Shu Chuen; Yeoh, Khay Guan

2013-01-01

Gastric cancer (GC) surveillance based on oesophagogastroduodenoscopy (OGD) appears to be a promising strategy for GC prevention. By evaluating the cost-effectiveness of endoscopic surveillance in Singaporean Chinese, this study aimed to inform the implementation of such a program in a population with a low to intermediate GC risk. USING A REFERENCE STRATEGY OF NO OGD INTERVENTION, WE EVALUATED FOUR STRATEGIES: 2-yearly OGD surveillance, annual OGD surveillance, 2-yearly OGD screening and 2-yearly screening plus annual surveillance in Singaporean Chinese aged 50-69 years. From a perspective of the healthcare system, Markov models were built to simulate the life experience of the target population. The models projected discounted lifetime costs ($), quality adjusted life year (QALY), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) indicating the cost-effectiveness of each strategy against a Singapore willingness-to-pay of $46,200/QALY. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to identify the influential variables and their associated thresholds, and to quantify the influence of parameter uncertainties respectively. With an ICER of $44,098/QALY, the annual OGD surveillance was the optimal strategy while the 2-yearly surveillance was the most cost-effective strategy (ICER = $25,949/QALY). The screening-based strategies were either extendedly dominated or cost-ineffective. The cost-effectiveness heterogeneity of the four strategies was observed across age-gender subgroups. Eight influential parameters were identified each with their specific thresholds to define the choice of optimal strategy. Accounting for the model uncertainties, the probability that the annual surveillance is the optimal strategy in Singapore was 44.5%. Endoscopic surveillance is potentially cost-effective in the prevention of GC for populations at low to intermediate risk. Regarding program implementation, a detailed analysis of influential factors and their associated

Appendectomy and Risk of Subsequent Diverticular Disease Requiring Hospitalization: A Population-Based Case-Control Study.

PubMed

Sköldberg, Filip; Olén, Ola; Ekbom, Anders; Schmidt, Peter T

2018-07-01

Appendicitis and acute diverticulitis share clinical features and are both influenced by genetic and environmental factors. Appendectomy has been positively associated with diverticular disease in hospital-based case-control studies. The aim of the present study was to investigate, in a population-based setting, whether appendectomy, with or without appendicitis, is associated with an altered risk of hospitalization with diverticular disease. This was a population-based case-control study. The study was based on national healthcare and population registers. We studied 41,988 individuals hospitalized between 2000 and 2010 with a first-time diagnosis of colonic diverticular disease and 413,115 matched control subjects. The association between appendectomy with or without appendicitis and diverticular disease was investigated by conditional logistic regression, including a model adjusting for hospital use. A total of 2813 cases (6.7%) and 19,037 controls (4.6%) had a previous record of appendectomy (appendectomy with acute appendicitis: adjusted OR = 1.31 (95% CI, 1.24-1.39); without appendicitis: adjusted OR = 1.30 (95% CI, 1.23-1.38)). Appendectomy was most strongly associated with an increased risk of diverticular disease within 1 year (with appendicitis: adjusted OR = 2.26 (95% CI, 1.61-3.16); without appendicitis: adjusted OR = 3.98 (95% CI, 2.71-5.83)), but the association was still present ≥20 years after appendectomy (with appendicitis: adjusted OR = 1.22 (95% CI, 1.12-1.32); without appendicitis: adjusted OR = 1.19 (95% CI, 1.10-1.28)). Detailed clinical information on the cases was not available. There were unmeasured potential confounders, such as smoking and dietary factors. The findings are consistent with a hypothesis of appendectomy causing an increased risk of diverticular disease, for example, by affecting the mucosal immune system or the gut microbiome. However, several other mechanisms may contribute to, or account for, the positive association

Recipient Age and Mortality Risk after Liver Transplantation: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

PubMed

Chen, Hsiu-Pin; Tsai, Yung-Fong; Lin, Jr-Rung; Liu, Fu-Chao; Yu, Huang-Ping

2016-01-01

The aim of the present large population-based cohort study is to explore the risk factors of age-related mortality in liver transplant recipients in Taiwan. Basic information and data on medical comorbidities for 2938 patients who received liver transplants between July 1, 1998, and December 31, 2012, were extracted from the National Health Insurance Research Database on the basis of ICD-9-codes. Mortality risks were analyzed after adjusting for preoperative comorbidities and compared among age cohorts. All patients were followed up until the study endpoint or death. This study finally included 2588 adults and 350 children [2068 (70.4%) male and 870 (29.6%) female patients]. The median age at transplantation was 52 (interquartile range, 43-58) years. Recipients were categorized into the following age cohorts: <20 (n = 350, 11.9%), 20-39 (n = 254, 8.6%), 40-59 (n = 1860, 63.3%), and ≥60 (n = 474, 16.1%) years. In the total population, 428 deaths occurred after liver transplantation, and the median follow-up period was 2.85 years (interquartile range, 1.2-5.5 years). Dialysis patients showed the highest risk of mortality irrespective of age. Further, the risk of death increased with an increase in the age at transplantation. Older liver transplant recipients (≥60 years), especially dialysis patients, have a higher mortality rate, possibly because they have more medical comorbidities. Our findings should make clinicians aware of the need for better risk stratification among elderly liver transplantation candidates.

Using reference values to define disease based on the lower limit of normal biased the population attributable fraction, but not the population excess risk: the example of chronic airflow obstruction.

PubMed

Burney, Peter; Minelli, Cosetta

2018-01-01

The impact of disease on population health is most commonly estimated by the population attributable fraction (PAF), or less commonly by the excess risk, an alternative measure that estimates the absolute risk of disease in the population that can be ascribed to the exposure. Using chronic airflow obstruction as an example, we examined the impact on these estimates of defining disease based on different "normal" values. We estimated PAF and the excess risk in scenarios in which the true rate of disease was 10% in the exposed and 5% in the unexposed, and where either 50% or 20% of the population was exposed. Disease definition was based on a "lower limit of normal", using the 5th, 1st and 0.2nd centile of values in a "normal" population as thresholds to define normality. Where normality is defined by centiles of values in a "normal" population, PAF is strongly influenced by which centile is selected to define normality. This is not true for the population excess risk. Care should be taken when interpreting estimates of PAF when disease is defined from a centile of a normal population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cancer risk in patients with alopecia areata: a nationwide population-based matched cohort study.

PubMed

Chen, Chih-Chiang; Chang, Yun-Ting; Liu, Han-Nan; Chen, Yi-Ju

2018-05-01

Alopecia areata (AA) is an organ-specific autoimmune disorder. Defective immune system related disorders are prone to increase the risk of cancer formation. However, the association among AA and variety of cancer types had never been studied. A nationwide population-based matched cohort study was conducted to evaluate the cancer risk in patients with AA. Records from Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database were analyzed. Cases of AA from 1997 to 2013 and cancers registered in the catastrophic illness profile from the same time period were collected. The standard incidence ratio (SIR) of each cancer was calculated. In total, 2099 cancers among 162,499 patients with AA and without prior cancers were identified. The overall cancer risks in AA patients were slightly decreased, especially among male subjects (SIR: 0.89). Refer to individual cancer, the cancer risk of nonmelanoma skin cancer (NMSC) (SIR: 0.59), upper GI cancer (SIR: 0.70), liver cancer (SIR: 0.82), uterine, and cervix cancer (SIR: 0.84) were significantly lower in patients with AA. In contrast, AA patients were inclined to have lymphoma, breast cancer, kidney, and urinary bladder cancer with the SIR of 1.55, 2.93, and 2.95, respectively. Age stratified analyses revealed female AA patients younger than 50 years old have even higher risk of breast cancer (SIR: 3.37). Further sensitivity analysis showed similar results after excluding major autoimmune disorders. Cancer risk in AA patients is organ specific, and it is not associated with the underlying autoimmune disorders in patients with AA. © 2018 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Estimating micro area behavioural risk factor prevalence from large population-based surveys: a full Bayesian approach.

PubMed

Seliske, L; Norwood, T A; McLaughlin, J R; Wang, S; Palleschi, C; Holowaty, E

2016-06-07

An important public health goal is to decrease the prevalence of key behavioural risk factors, such as tobacco use and obesity. Survey information is often available at the regional level, but heterogeneity within large geographic regions cannot be assessed. Advanced spatial analysis techniques are demonstrated to produce sensible micro area estimates of behavioural risk factors that enable identification of areas with high prevalence. A spatial Bayesian hierarchical model was used to estimate the micro area prevalence of current smoking and excess bodyweight for the Erie-St. Clair region in southwestern Ontario. Estimates were mapped for male and female respondents of five cycles of the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS). The micro areas were 2006 Census Dissemination Areas, with an average population of 400-700 people. Two individual-level models were specified: one controlled for survey cycle and age group (model 1), and one controlled for survey cycle, age group and micro area median household income (model 2). Post-stratification was used to derive micro area behavioural risk factor estimates weighted to the population structure. SaTScan analyses were conducted on the granular, postal-code level CCHS data to corroborate findings of elevated prevalence. Current smoking was elevated in two urban areas for both sexes (Sarnia and Windsor), and an additional small community (Chatham) for males only. Areas of excess bodyweight were prevalent in an urban core (Windsor) among males, but not females. Precision of the posterior post-stratified current smoking estimates was improved in model 2, as indicated by narrower credible intervals and a lower coefficient of variation. For excess bodyweight, both models had similar precision. Aggregation of the micro area estimates to CCHS design-based estimates validated the findings. This is among the first studies to apply a full Bayesian model to complex sample survey data to identify micro areas with variation in risk

Population attributable risks of oral cavity cancer to behavioral and medical risk factors in France: results of a large population-based case-control study, the ICARE study.

PubMed

Radoï, Loredana; Menvielle, Gwenn; Cyr, Diane; Lapôtre-Ledoux, Bénédicte; Stücker, Isabelle; Luce, Danièle

2015-10-31

Population attributable risks (PARs) are useful tool to estimate the burden of risk factors in cancer incidence. Few studies estimated the PARs of oral cavity cancer to tobacco smoking alone, alcohol drinking alone and their joint consumption but none performed analysis stratified by subsite, gender or age. Among the suspected risk factors of oral cavity cancer, only PAR to a family history of head and neck cancer was reported in two studies. The purpose of this study was to estimate in France the PARs of oral cavity cancer to several recognized and suspected risk factors, overall and by subsite, gender and age. We analysed data from 689 oral cavity cancer cases and 3481 controls included in a population-based case-control study, the ICARE study. Unconditional logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs), PARs and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). The PARs were 0.3% (95% CI -3.9%; +3.9%) for alcohol alone, 12.7% (6.9%-18.0%) for tobacco alone and 69.9% (64.4%-74.7%) for their joint consumption. PAR to combined alcohol and tobacco consumption was 74% (66.5%-79.9%) in men and 45.4% (32.7%-55.6%) in women. Among suspected risk factors, body mass index 2 years before the interview <25 kg.m(-2), never tea drinking and family history of head and neck cancer explained 35.3% (25.7%-43.6%), 30.3% (14.4%-43.3%) and 5.8% (0.6%-10.8%) of cancer burden, respectively. About 93% (88.3%-95.6%) of oral cavity cancers were explained by all risk factors, 94.3% (88.4%-97.2%) in men and only 74.1% (47.0%-87.3%) in women. Our study emphasizes the role of combined tobacco and alcohol consumption in the oral cavity cancer burden in France and gives an indication of the proportion of cases attributable to other risk factors. Most of oral cavity cancers are attributable to concurrent smoking and drinking and would be potentially preventable through smoking or drinking cessation. If the majority of cases are explained by recognized or suspected risk factors in men, a

Predicting tuberculosis risk in the foreign-born population of British Columbia, Canada: study protocol for a retrospective population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Ronald, Lisa A; Campbell, Jonathon R; Balshaw, Robert F; Roth, David Z; Romanowski, Kamila; Marra, Fawziah; Cook, Victoria J; Johnston, James C

2016-11-25

Improved understanding of risk factors for developing active tuberculosis (TB) will better inform decisions about diagnostic testing and treatment for latent TB infection (LTBI) in migrant populations in low-incidence regions. We aim to examine TB risk factors among the foreign-born population in British Columbia (BC), Canada, and to create and validate a clinically relevant multivariate risk score to predict active TB. This retrospective population-based cohort study will include all foreign-born individuals who acquired permanent resident status in Canada between 1 January 1985 and 31 December 2013 and acquired healthcare coverage in BC at any point during this period. Multiple administrative databases and disease registries will be linked, including a National Immigration Database, BC Provincial Health Insurance Registration, physician billings, hospitalisations, drugs dispensed from community pharmacies, vital statistics, HIV testing and notifications, cancer, chronic kidney disease and dialysis treatment, and all TB and LTBI testing and treatment data in BC. Extended proportional hazards regression will be used to estimate risk factors for TB and to create a prognostic TB risk score. Ethical approval for this study has been obtained from the University of British Columbia Clinical Ethics Review Board. Once completed, study findings will be presented at conferences and published in peer-reviewed journals. An online TB risk score calculator will also be created. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Dietary pattern and risk of hodgkin lymphoma in a population-based case-control study.

PubMed

Epstein, Mara M; Chang, Ellen T; Zhang, Yawei; Fung, Teresa T; Batista, Julie L; Ambinder, Richard F; Zheng, Tongzhang; Mueller, Nancy E; Birmann, Brenda M

2015-09-01

Classic Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL) has few known modifiable risk factors, and the relationship between diet and cHL risk is unclear. We performed the first investigation of an association between dietary pattern and cHL risk in 435 cHL cases and 563 population-based controls from Massachusetts and Connecticut (1997-2000) who completed baseline diet questionnaires. We identified 4 major dietary patterns ("vegetable," "high meat," "fruit/low-fat dairy," "desserts/sweets") using principal components analysis. We computed multivariable odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for associations of dietary pattern score (quartiles) with younger-adult (age <50 years), older-adult (age ≥50 years), and overall cHL risk. Secondary analyses examined associations by histological subtype and tumor Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) status. A diet high in desserts/sweets was associated with younger-adult (odds ratio(quartile 4 vs. quartile 1) = 1.60, 95% confidence interval: 1.05, 2.45; Ptrend = 0.008) and EBV-negative, younger-adult (odds ratio = 2.11, 95% confidence interval: 1.31, 3.41; Ptrend = 0.007) cHL risk. A high meat diet was associated with older-adult (odds ratio = 3.34, 95% confidence interval: 1.02, 10.91; Ptrend = 0.04) and EBV-negative, older-adult (odds ratio = 4.64, 95% confidence interval: 1.03, 20.86; Ptrend = 0.04) cHL risk. Other dietary patterns were not clearly associated with cHL. We report the first evidence for a role of dietary pattern in cHL etiology. Diets featuring high intake of meat or desserts and sweets may increase cHL risk. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health 2015. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

Health-Related Lifestyle Factors and Sexual Dysfunction: A Meta-Analysis of Population-Based Research.

PubMed

Allen, Mark S; Walter, Emma E

2018-04-01

-adjusted models and tests of potential moderators using meta-regression. Limitations include low statistical power in models testing diet, caffeine, and cannabis use as risk factors. Results provide compelling evidence that cigarette smoking, alcohol, and physical activity are important for sexual dysfunction. Insufficient research was available to draw conclusions regarding risk factors for premature ejaculation or for cannabis use as a risk factor. These findings should be of interest to clinicians treating men and women with complaints relating to symptoms of sexual dysfunction. Allen MS, Walter EE. Health-Related Lifestyle Factors and Sexual Dysfunction: A Meta-Analysis of Population-Based Research. J Sex Med 2018;15:458-475. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Sexual Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk factors for squamous cell carcinoma of the penis--population-based case-control study in Denmark.

PubMed

Madsen, Birgitte Schütt; van den Brule, Adriaan J C; Jensen, Helle Lone; Wohlfahrt, Jan; Frisch, Morten

2008-10-01

Few etiologic studies of squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the penis have been carried out in populations where childhood circumcision is rare. A total of 71 patients with invasive (n=53) or in situ (n=18) penile SCC, 86 prostate cancer controls, and 103 population controls were interviewed in a population-based case-control study in Denmark. For 37 penile SCC patients, tissue samples were PCR examined for human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA. Overall, 65% of PCR-examined penile SCCs were high-risk HPV-positive, most of which (22 of 24; 92%) were due to HPV16. Penile SCC risk was positively associated with measures of early and high sexual activity, including lifetime number of female sex partners, number of female sex partners before age 20, age at first intercourse, penile-oral sex, a history of anogenital warts, and never having used condoms. Histories of phimosis and priapism at least 5 years before diagnosis were also significant risk factors, whereas alcohol abstinence was associated with reduced risk. Our study confirms sexually transmitted HPV16 infection and phimosis as major risk factors for penile SCC and suggests that penile-oral sex may be an important means of viral transmission. The association with priapism was unexpected and needs replication.

Cost-effectiveness of population based BRCA testing with varying Ashkenazi Jewish ancestry.

PubMed

Manchanda, Ranjit; Patel, Shreeya; Antoniou, Antonis C; Levy-Lahad, Ephrat; Turnbull, Clare; Evans, D Gareth; Hopper, John L; Macinnis, Robert J; Menon, Usha; Jacobs, Ian; Legood, Rosa

2017-11-01

Population-based BRCA1/BRCA2 testing has been found to be cost-effective compared with family history-based testing in Ashkenazi-Jewish women were >30 years old with 4 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparents. However, individuals may have 1, 2, or 3 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparents, and cost-effectiveness data are lacking at these lower BRCA prevalence estimates. We present an updated cost-effectiveness analysis of population BRCA1/BRCA2 testing for women with 1, 2, and 3 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparents. Decision analysis model. Lifetime costs and effects of population and family history-based testing were compared with the use of a decision analysis model. 56% BRCA carriers are missed by family history criteria alone. Analyses were conducted for United Kingdom and United States populations. Model parameters were obtained from the Genetic Cancer Prediction through Population Screening trial and published literature. Model parameters and BRCA population prevalence for individuals with 3, 2, or 1 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparent were adjusted for the relative frequency of BRCA mutations in the Ashkenazi-Jewish and general populations. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated for all Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparent scenarios. Costs, along with outcomes, were discounted at 3.5%. The time horizon of the analysis is "life-time," and perspective is "payer." Probabilistic sensitivity analysis evaluated model uncertainty. Population testing for BRCA mutations is cost-saving in Ashkenazi-Jewish women with 2, 3, or 4 grandparents (22-33 days life-gained) in the United Kingdom and 1, 2, 3, or 4 grandparents (12-26 days life-gained) in the United States populations, respectively. It is also extremely cost-effective in women in the United Kingdom with just 1 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparent with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £863 per quality-adjusted life-years and 15 days life gained. Results show that population-testing remains cost-effective at the £20,000-30000 per quality

Aneurismal subarachnoid hemorrhage in a Chilean population, with emphasis on risk factors

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Subarachnoid Hemorrhage (SAH) is caused principally by the rupture of intracranial aneurisms. Important risk factors have been described such as age, sex, hypertension (HT) and season of the year, among others. The objective is to investigate the demographic characteristics and possible risk factors in a population of Chilean patients. Methods This retrospective study was based on the analysis of 244 clinical records of patients diagnosed with aneurismal SAH who were discharged from the Instituto de Neurocirugía ASENJO in Santiago, Chile. Results The mean age of patients was 49.85 years and the male:female ratio was 1:2.7. The signs and symptoms were not different between sexes; cephalea (85.7%) was predominant, followed by loss of consciousness, vomiting/nausea and meningeal signs. Risk factors included sex, age and HT. Concordant with other reports, the incidence of SAH was greatest in spring. Conclusions The demographic characteristics and risk factors observed in patients with aneurismal SAH treated in ASENJO were comparable to those of other populations. We were not able to conclude that tobacco and alcohol consumption were risk factors for this population. PMID:22035203

Dyslipidemia and its risk factors among urban middle-aged Iranians: A population-based study.

PubMed

Ebrahimi, Hossein; Emamian, Mohammad Hassan; Hashemi, Hassan; Fotouhi, Akbar

2016-01-01

Dyslipidemia is a known risk factor for cardiovascular disease and is a leading cause of mortality in developed and developing countries. This study was aimed to determine the prevalence of dyslipidemia and its risk factors in an urban group of Iranian adult population. In this study, based on the criteria set by the National Cholesterol Education Program, the prevalence of dyslipidemia was evaluated in a population of 4737 people aged 45-69 years who participated in the second phase of an ophthalmology cohort study in Shahroud. Dyslipidemia prevalence was determined by age, sex, and risk factors of the disease; the findings were tested by using simple and multiple logistic regression. The prevalence of dyslipidemia was 66.5% (CI 95%: 64.4-68.6) in males, 61.3% (CI 95%: 59.5-63.2) in females, and 63.4% (CI 95%: 62.0-64.9%) in both sexes. The prevalence of hypertriglyceridemia, hypercholesterolemia, low HDL-C, and high LDL-C, respectively, was 28.8%, 13.4%, 42.3%, and 13.4%, respectively. In multivariate logistic regression model, increase of age (for females), abdominal obesity, overweight and obesity, hypertension, and diabetes were associated with an increased odd of dyslipidemia. The prevalence of dyslipidemia in middle-aged urban population in Iran is high, and with increasing age there is an increased risk of dyslipidemia. Hence, considering the growing trend of aging in Iran, there is need for taking special measures to deal with dyslipidemia as a health priority. Furthermore, the need for planning in order to reduce the risk of dyslipidemia and prevent its complications is greater than ever. Copyright © 2016 Diabetes India. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Chiropractic care and risk for acute lumbar disc herniation: a population-based self-controlled case series study.

PubMed

Hincapié, Cesar A; Tomlinson, George A; Côté, Pierre; Rampersaud, Y Raja; Jadad, Alejandro R; Cassidy, J David

2017-10-16

Chiropractic care is popular for low back pain, but may increase the risk for acute lumbar disc herniation (LDH). Low back pain is a common early (prodromal) symptom of LDH and commonly precedes LDH diagnosis. Our objective was to investigate the association between chiropractic care and acute LDH with early surgical intervention, and contrast this with the association between primary care physician (PCP) care and acute LDH with early surgery. Using a self-controlled case series design and population-based healthcare databases in Ontario, Canada, we investigated all adults with acute LDH requiring emergency department (ED) visit and early surgical intervention from April 1994 to December 2004. The relative incidence of acute LDH with early surgery in exposed periods after chiropractic visits relative to unexposed periods was estimated within individuals, and compared with the relative incidence of acute LDH with early surgery following PCP visits. 195 cases of acute LDH with early surgery (within 8 weeks) were identified in a population of more than 100 million person-years. Strong positive associations were found between acute LDH and both chiropractic and PCP visits. The risk for acute LDH with early surgery associated with chiropractic visits was no higher than the risk associated with PCP visits. Both chiropractic and primary medical care were associated with an increased risk for acute LDH requiring ED visit and early surgery. Our analysis suggests that patients with prodromal back pain from a developing disc herniation likely seek healthcare from both chiropractors and PCPs before full clinical expression of acute LDH. We found no evidence of excess risk for acute LDH with early surgery associated with chiropractic compared with primary medical care.

Can an Internet-based health risk assessment highlight problems of heart disease risk factor awareness? A cross-sectional analysis.

PubMed

Dickerson, Justin B; McNeal, Catherine J; Tsai, Ginger; Rivera, Cathleen M; Smith, Matthew Lee; Ohsfeldt, Robert L; Ory, Marcia G

2014-04-18

comparative population-based CHD risk (ie, no more than 15% risk of CHD for the sample vs up to a 30% chance of CHD for the population). Interventions are needed to improve knowledge of CHD risk factors. Specific interventions should address perceptions of HDL-C and LCL-C. Internet-based health risk assessments such as Heart Aware may contribute to public health surveillance, but they must address selection bias of Internet-based recruitment methods.

Associations of Urinary Cotinine-Verified Active and Passive Smoking with Thyroid Function: Analysis of Population-Based Nationally Representative Data.

PubMed

Kang, Jihun; Kong, Eunhee; Choi, Jongsoon

2018-05-01

The effects of active and passive smoking on thyroid function in the Korean population have not been determined. Furthermore, related research is based on self-reported smoking status, which may be inaccurate, especially among women. The present study aimed at evaluating the association between biochemically verified smoking status and thyroid function in a nationally representative Korean population. This population-based cross-sectional study included 3404 subjects without thyroid disease who were not taking thyroid medication. Smoking status was identified using self-reported data and urinary cotinine levels. Kruskal-Wallis and Jonckheere-Terpstra trend tests were performed to evaluate the association between smoking exposure and thyroid function. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to estimate the effect of smoking on subclinical hypothyroidism (SCH). Biochemically verified active and passive smoking rates were 43.4% and 23.3% among men and 10.0% and 22.9% among women, respectively. Active smokers had significantly lower iodine levels than passive smokers and nonsmokers. Active smoking was associated with decreased serum thyrotropin (TSH) levels among both sexes, although only men exhibited a dose-response relationship between increasing smoking exposure and decreasing TSH levels. Passive smoking slightly decreased TSH levels, but the decrease was not statistically significant. The risk of SCH decreased with increasing smoking exposure in the multivariate-adjusted analysis (p for trend = 0.027 among men and 0.042 among women). Active and passive smoking were associated with decreasing serum TSH levels and a lower risk of SCH in a Korean population. These associations might be related to lower urinary iodine levels in active smokers.

Risk of cancer in patients with scleroderma: a population based cohort study

PubMed Central

Hill, C; Nguyen, A; Roder, D; Roberts-Thomson, P

2003-01-01

Background: Previous studies have suggested an increased risk of cancer among patients with scleroderma. Objective: To study a population based cohort of patients with scleroderma in South Australia. Methods: Subjects with scleroderma were identified from the South Australian Scleroderma Registry established in 1993. All subjects on the scleroderma registry were linked to the South Australian Cancer Registry to identify all cases of cancer until 31 December 2000. Standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) for cancer for subjects with scleroderma were determined using the age- and sex-specific rates for South Australia. Results: In 441 patients with scleroderma, 90 cases of cancer were identified, 47 of which developed after inclusion on the scleroderma registry. The SIRs for all cancers among these patients were significantly increased (SIR=1.99; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.46 to 2.65) compared with the cancer incidence rates for South Australia. The SIRs for lung cancer (SIR=5.9; 95% CI 3.05 to 10.31) were also significantly increased. The SIRs for all cancers among the subgroups with diffuse scleroderma (SIR=2.73; 95% CI 1.31 to 5.02) and limited scleroderma (SIR=1.85; 95% CI 1.23 to 2.68) were significantly increased. Conclusions: This population based cohort study provides evidence that scleroderma is associated with cancer, and in particular, lung cancer. In addition, both diffuse and limited forms of scleroderma are associated with a similarly increased risk of cancer. PMID:12860727

Duration of second stage of labor and instrumental delivery as risk factors for severe perineal lacerations: population-based study.

PubMed

Simic, Marija; Cnattingius, Sven; Petersson, Gunnar; Sandström, Anna; Stephansson, Olof

2017-02-21

We sought to investigate the impact of the duration of second stage of labor on risk of severe perineal lacerations (third and fourth degree). This population based cohort study was conducted in the Stockholm/Gotland region, Sweden, 2008-2014. Study population included 52 211 primiparous women undergoing vaginal delivery with cephalic presentation at term. Unconditional logistic regression analysis was used to calculate crude and adjusted odds ratios (OR), using 95% confidence intervals (CI). Main exposure was duration of second stage of labor, and main outcome was risks of severe perineal lacerations (third and fourth degree). Risk of severe perineal lacerations increased with duration of second stage of labor. Compared with a second stage of labor of 1 h or less, women with a second stage of more than 2 h had an increased risk (aOR 1.42; 95% CI 1.28-1.58). Compared with non-instrumental vaginal deliveries, the risk was elevated among instrumental vaginal deliveries (aOR 2.24; 95% CI 2.07-2.42). The risk of perineal laceration increased with duration of second stage of labor until less than 3 h in both instrumental and non-instrumental vaginal deliveries, but after 3 h, the ORs did not further increase. After adjustments for potential confounders, macrosomia (birth weight > 4 500 g) and occiput posterior fetal position were risk factors of severe perineal lacerations. The risk of severe perineal laceration increases with duration until the third hour of second stage of labor. Instrumental delivery is the most significant risk factor for severe lacerations, followed by duration of second stage of labor, fetal size and occiput posterior fetal position.

Heart diseases and long-term risk of dementia and Alzheimer's disease: a population-based CAIDE study.

PubMed

Rusanen, Minna; Kivipelto, Miia; Levälahti, Esko; Laatikainen, Tiina; Tuomilehto, Jaakko; Soininen, Hilkka; Ngandu, Tiia

2014-01-01

Many cardiovascular risk factors are shown to increase the risk of dementia and Alzheimer's disease (AD), but the impact of heart disease on later development of dementia is still unclear. The aim of the study was to investigate the long-term risk of dementia and Alzheimer's disease (AD) related to midlife and late-life atrial fibrillation (AF), heart failure (HF), and coronary artery disease (CAD) in a population-based study with a follow-up of over 25 years. Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging and Dementia (CAIDE) study includes 2000 participants who were randomly selected from four separate, population-based samples originally studied in midlife (1972, 1977, 1982, or 1987). Re-examinations were carried out in 1998 and 2005-2008. Altogether 1,510 (75.5%) persons participated in at least one re-examination, and 127 (8.4%) persons were diagnosed with dementia (of which 102 had AD). AF in late-life was an independent risk factor for dementia (HR 2.61, 95% CI 1.05-6.47; p = 0.039) and AD (HR 2.54, 95% CI 1.04-6.16; p = 0.040) in the fully adjusted analyses. The association was even stronger among the apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 non-carriers. Late-life HF, but not CAD, tended to increase the risks as well. Heart diseases diagnosed at midlife did not increase the risk of later dementia and AD. Late-life heart diseases increase the subsequent risk of dementia and AD. Prevention and effective treatment of heart diseases may be important also from the perspective of brain health and cognitive functioning.

Comparative cost-effectiveness of metformin-based dual therapies associated with risk of cardiovascular diseases among Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes: Evidence from a population-based national cohort in Taiwan.

PubMed

Ou, Huang-Tz; Chen, Yen-Ting; Liu, Ya-Ming; Wu, Jin-Shang

2016-06-01

To assess the cost-effectiveness of metformin-based dual therapies associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in a Chinese population with type 2 diabetes. We utilized Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) 1997-2011, which is derived from the claims of National Health Insurance, a mandatory-enrollment single-payer system that covers over 99% of Taiwan's population. Four metformin-based dual therapy cohorts were used, namely a reference group of metformin plus sulfonylureas (Metformin-SU) and metformin plus acarbose, metformin plus thiazolidinediones (Metformin-TZD), and metformin plus glinides (Metformin-glinides). Using propensity scores, each subject in a comparison cohort was 1:1 matched to a referent. The effectiveness outcome was CVD risk. Only direct medical costs were included. The Markov chain model was applied to project lifetime outcomes, discounted at 3% per annum. The bootstrapping technique was performed to assess uncertainty in analysis. Metformin-glinides was most cost-effective in the base-case analysis; Metformin-glinides saved $194 USD for one percentage point of reduction in CVD risk, as compared to Metformin-SU. However, for the elderly or those with severe diabetic complications, Metformin-TZD, especially pioglitazone, was more suitable; as compared to Metformin-SU, Metformin-TZD saved $840.1 USD per percentage point of reduction in CVD risk. Among TZDs, Metformin-pioglitazone saved $1831.5 USD per percentage point of associated CVD risk reduction, as compared to Metformin-rosiglitazone. When CVD is considered an important clinical outcome, Metformin-pioglitazone is cost-effective, in particular for the elderly and those with severe diabetic complications. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prenatal antidepressant use and risk of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder in offspring: population based cohort study.

PubMed

Man, Kenneth K C; Chan, Esther W; Ip, Patrick; Coghill, David; Simonoff, Emily; Chan, Phyllis K L; Lau, Wallis C Y; Schuemie, Martijn J; Sturkenboom, Miriam C J M; Wong, Ian C K

2017-05-31

Objective  To assess the potential association between prenatal use of antidepressants and the risk of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in offspring. Design  Population based cohort study. Setting  Data from the Hong Kong population based electronic medical records on the Clinical Data Analysis and Reporting System. Participants  190 618 children born in Hong Kong public hospitals between January 2001 and December 2009 and followed-up to December 2015. Main outcome measure  Hazard ratio of maternal antidepressant use during pregnancy and ADHD in children aged 6 to 14 years, with an average follow-up time of 9.3 years (range 7.4-11.0 years). Results  Among 190 618 children, 1252 had a mother who used prenatal antidepressants. 5659 children (3.0%) were given a diagnosis of ADHD or received treatment for ADHD. The crude hazard ratio of maternal antidepressant use during pregnancy was 2.26 (P<0.01) compared with non-use. After adjustment for potential confounding factors, including maternal psychiatric disorders and use of other psychiatric drugs, the adjusted hazard ratio was reduced to 1.39 (95% confidence interval 1.07 to 1.82, P=0.01). Likewise, similar results were observed when comparing children of mothers who had used antidepressants before pregnancy with those who were never users (1.76, 1.36 to 2.30, P<0.01). The risk of ADHD in the children of mothers with psychiatric disorders was higher compared with the children of mothers without psychiatric disorders even if the mothers had never used antidepressants (1.84, 1.54 to 2.18, P<0.01). All sensitivity analyses yielded similar results. Sibling matched analysis identified no significant difference in risk of ADHD in siblings exposed to antidepressants during gestation and those not exposed during gestation (0.54, 0.17 to 1.74, P=0.30). Conclusions  The findings suggest that the association between prenatal use of antidepressants and risk of ADHD in offspring can be partially explained

Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

PubMed

Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

2017-10-01

Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

Thyroid disorders and breast cancer risk in Asian population: a nationwide population-based case-control study in Taiwan.

PubMed

Weng, Chien-Hsiang; Chen, Yi-Huei; Lin, Ching-Heng; Luo, Xun; Lin, Tseng-Hsi

2018-03-30

To evaluate whether hyperthyroidism or hypothyroidism increases the risk of subsequent breast cancer in an Asian population. Nationwide population-based case-control study. All healthcare facilities in Taiwan. A total of 103 466 women (mean age 53.3 years) were enrolled. 51 733 adult women with newly diagnosed primary breast cancer without a previous cancer history between 2006 and 2011 were identified and included in our study. 51 733 women with no cancer diagnosis prior to the index date were age matched as controls. Diagnosis of hyperthyroidism or hypothyroidism prior to the diagnosis of breast cancer or the same index date was identified, age, histories of thyroid disease treatment, oestrogen use and radioactive iodine treatment were adjusted. To identify risk differences in developing breast cancer among patients with a medical history of hyperthyroidism or hypothyroidism. There was a significantly increased risk of breast cancer in women with hyperthyroidism under the age of 55 years (age <45: OR 1.16, P=0.049; age 45-55: OR 1.15, P=0.019). Patients with hypothyroidism also showed an increased risk of breast cancer (OR 1.19, P=0.029) without statistical significance after stratification by age group (age <45, 45-55, >55 years). Treatment for thyroid disorders did not alter the association in subgroup analyses (P=0.857; 0.262, respectively). Asian women under 55 years of age with history of hyperthyroidism have a significantly increased risk of breast cancer regardless of treatment. Women with history of hypothyroidism may also have an increased risk. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Long-term effect of statins on the risk of new-onset osteoporosis: A nationwide population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Lin, Tsung-Kun; Chou, Pesus; Lin, Ching-Heng; Hung, Yi-Jen; Jong, Gwo-Ping

2018-01-01

Several observational cohort and meta-analytical studies in humans have shown that statin users have a lower risk of fractures or greater bone mineral densities (BMD) than nonusers. However, some studies including randomized clinical trials have the opposite results, particularly in Asian populations. This study investigates the impacts of statins on new-onset osteoporosis in Taiwan. In a nationwide retrospective population-based cohort study, 45,342 subjects aged between 50-90 years having received statin therapy (statin-users) since January 1 2001, and observed through December 31 2013 were selected from the National Health Insurance Research Database of Taiwan. Likewise, 115,594 patients had no statin therapy (statin-non-users) were included as controls in this study. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards analysis for drug exposures was employed to evaluate the association between statin treatment and new-onset of osteoporosis risk. We also used the long-rank test to evaluate the difference of probability of osteoporosis-free survival. During the 13-year follow-up period, 16,146 of all enrolled subjects (10.03%) developed osteoporosis, including 3097 statin-users (6.83%) and 13,049 statin-non-users (11.29%). Overall, statin therapy reduced the risk of new-onset osteoporosis by 48% (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.52; 95% CI 0.50 to 0.54). A dose-response relationship between statin treatment and the risk of new-onset osteoporosis was observed. The adjusted hazard ratios for new-onset osteoporosis were 0.84 (95% CI, 0.78 to 0.90), 0.56 (95% CI, 0.52 to 0.60) and 0.23 (95% CI, 0.21 to 0.25) when cumulative defined daily doses (cDDDs) ranged from 28 to 90, 91 to 365, and more than 365, respectively, relative to nonusers. Otherwise, high-potency statins (rosuvastatin and atorvastatin) and moderate-potency statin (simvastatin) seemed to have a potential protective effect for osteoporosis. In this population-based cohort study, we found that statin use is associated

A population health approach to reducing observational intensity bias in health risk adjustment: cross sectional analysis of insurance claims

PubMed Central

Sharp, Sandra M; Bevan, Gwyn; Skinner, Jonathan S; Gottlieb, Daniel J

2014-01-01

Objective To compare the performance of two new approaches to risk adjustment that are free of the influence of observational intensity with methods that depend on diagnoses listed in administrative databases. Setting Administrative data from the US Medicare program for services provided in 2007 among 306 US hospital referral regions. Design Cross sectional analysis. Participants 20% sample of fee for service Medicare beneficiaries residing in one of 306 hospital referral regions in the United States in 2007 (n=5 153 877). Main outcome measures The effect of health risk adjustment on age, sex, and race adjusted mortality and spending rates among hospital referral regions using four indices: the standard Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services—Hierarchical Condition Categories (HCC) index used by the US Medicare program (calculated from diagnoses listed in Medicare’s administrative database); a visit corrected HCC index (to reduce the effects of observational intensity on frequency of diagnoses); a poverty index (based on US census); and a population health index (calculated using data on incidence of hip fractures and strokes, and responses from a population based annual survey of health from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention). Results Estimated variation in age, sex, and race adjusted mortality rates across hospital referral regions was reduced using the indices based on population health, poverty, and visit corrected HCC, but increased using the standard HCC index. Most of the residual variation in age, sex, and race adjusted mortality was explained (in terms of weighted R2) by the population health index: R2=0.65. The other indices explained less: R2=0.20 for the visit corrected HCC index; 0.19 for the poverty index, and 0.02 for the standard HCC index. The residual variation in age, sex, race, and price adjusted spending per capita across the 306 hospital referral regions explained by the indices (in terms of weighted R2) were 0.50 for

A population health approach to reducing observational intensity bias in health risk adjustment: cross sectional analysis of insurance claims.

PubMed

Wennberg, David E; Sharp, Sandra M; Bevan, Gwyn; Skinner, Jonathan S; Gottlieb, Daniel J; Wennberg, John E

2014-04-10

To compare the performance of two new approaches to risk adjustment that are free of the influence of observational intensity with methods that depend on diagnoses listed in administrative databases. Administrative data from the US Medicare program for services provided in 2007 among 306 US hospital referral regions. Cross sectional analysis. 20% sample of fee for service Medicare beneficiaries residing in one of 306 hospital referral regions in the United States in 2007 (n = 5,153,877). The effect of health risk adjustment on age, sex, and race adjusted mortality and spending rates among hospital referral regions using four indices: the standard Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services--Hierarchical Condition Categories (HCC) index used by the US Medicare program (calculated from diagnoses listed in Medicare's administrative database); a visit corrected HCC index (to reduce the effects of observational intensity on frequency of diagnoses); a poverty index (based on US census); and a population health index (calculated using data on incidence of hip fractures and strokes, and responses from a population based annual survey of health from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention). Estimated variation in age, sex, and race adjusted mortality rates across hospital referral regions was reduced using the indices based on population health, poverty, and visit corrected HCC, but increased using the standard HCC index. Most of the residual variation in age, sex, and race adjusted mortality was explained (in terms of weighted R2) by the population health index: R2=0.65. The other indices explained less: R2=0.20 for the visit corrected HCC index; 0.19 for the poverty index, and 0.02 for the standard HCC index. The residual variation in age, sex, race, and price adjusted spending per capita across the 306 hospital referral regions explained by the indices (in terms of weighted R2) were 0.50 for the standard HCC index, 0.21 for the population health index, 0.12 for the

Precursor Analysis for Flight- and Ground-Based Anomaly Risk Significance Determination

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Groen, Frank

2010-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the precursor analysis for flight and ground based anomaly risk significance. It includes information on accident precursor analysis, real models vs. models, and probabilistic analysis.

Use-related risk analysis for medical devices based on improved FMEA.

PubMed

Liu, Long; Shuai, Ma; Wang, Zhu; Li, Ping

2012-01-01

In order to effectively analyze and control use-related risk of medical devices, quantitative methodologies must be applied. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is a proactive technique for error detection and risk reduction. In this article, an improved FMEA based on Fuzzy Mathematics and Grey Relational Theory is developed to better carry out user-related risk analysis for medical devices. As an example, the analysis process using this improved FMEA method for a certain medical device (C-arm X-ray machine) is described.

Chronic kidney disease risk reduction in a Hispanic population through pharmacist-based disease-state management.

PubMed

Leal, Sandra; Soto, Marisa

2008-04-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the ability of a pharmacist-based disease-state management service to improve the care of indigent, predominately Spanish-speaking patients with diabetes mellitus and common comorbid conditions at high risk for the development of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Patients at high risk for developing CKD who have diabetes at a community health center were placed in a pharmacist-based disease state management service for CKD risk reduction. A residency-trained, bilingual, certified diabetes educator, with a PharmD served as the patient's provider using diagnostic, educational, and therapeutic management services under a medical staff approved collaborative practice agreement. Outcomes were assessed by using national standards of care for disease control and prevention screening. The impact on CKD was shown with a mean A1C decrease of 2% and improvement in the proportion of patients at target goals for blood pressure, A1C, and cholesterol levels and receiving aspirin and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin receptor blocker. A pharmacist-based disease-state management service for CKD risk reduction, care of diabetes, and frequently associated comorbid conditions improved compliance with national standards for diabetes care in a high-risk population.

Applicability of risk-based management and the need for risk-based economic decision analysis at hazardous waste contaminated sites.

PubMed

Khadam, Ibrahim; Kaluarachchi, Jagath J

2003-07-01

Decision analysis in subsurface contamination management is generally carried out through a traditional engineering economic viewpoint. However, new advances in human health risk assessment, namely, the probabilistic risk assessment, and the growing awareness of the importance of soft data in the decision-making process, require decision analysis methodologies that are capable of accommodating non-technical and politically biased qualitative information. In this work, we discuss the major limitations of the currently practiced decision analysis framework, which evolves around the definition of risk and cost of risk, and its poor ability to communicate risk-related information. A demonstration using a numerical example was conducted to provide insight on these limitations of the current decision analysis framework. The results from this simple ground water contamination and remediation scenario were identical to those obtained from studies carried out on existing Superfund sites, which suggests serious flaws in the current risk management framework. In order to provide a perspective on how these limitations may be avoided in future formulation of the management framework, more matured and well-accepted approaches to decision analysis in dam safety and the utility industry, where public health and public investment are of great concern, are presented and their applicability in subsurface remediation management is discussed. Finally, in light of the success of the application of risk-based decision analysis in dam safety and the utility industry, potential options for decision analysis in subsurface contamination management are discussed.

Cardiovascular disease risk factors in relation to smoking behaviour and history: a population-based cohort study

PubMed Central

Keto, Jaana; Ventola, Hanna; Jokelainen, Jari; Linden, Kari; Keinänen-Kiukaanniemi, Sirkka; Timonen, Markku; Ylisaukko-oja, Tero; Auvinen, Juha

2016-01-01

Objective To investigate how individual risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) (blood pressure, lipid levels, body mass index, waist and hip circumference, use of antihypertensive or hypolipidemic medication, and diagnosed diabetes) differ in people aged 46 years with different smoking behaviour and history. Methods This population-based cohort study is based on longitudinal data from the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1966 project. Data were collected at the 31-year and 46-year follow-ups, when a total of 5038 and 5974 individuals participated in clinical examinations and questionnaires. Data from both follow-ups were available for 3548 participants. In addition to individual CVD risk factors, Framingham and Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) algorithms were used to assess the absolute risk of a CVD event within the next decade. Results The differences in individual risk factors for CVD reached statistical significance for some groups, but the differences were not consistent or clinically significant. There were no clinically significant differences in CVD risk as measured by Framingham or SCORE algorithms between never smokers, recent quitters and former smokers (7.5%, 7.4%, 8.1% for men; 3.3%, 3.0%, 3.2% for women; p<0.001). Conclusions The effect of past or present smoking on individual CVD risk parameters such as blood pressure and cholesterol seems to be of clinically minor significance in people aged 46 years. In other words, smoking seems to be above all an independent risk factor for CVD in the working-age population. Quitting smoking in working age may thus reduce calculated CVD risk nearly to the same level with people who have never smoked. PMID:27493759

Population-Based Assessment of Exposure to Risk Behaviors in Motion Pictures

PubMed Central

Sargent, James D.; Worth, Keilah A.; Beach, Michael; Gerrard, Meg; Heatherton, Todd F.

2008-01-01

The aim of most population-based studies of media is to relate a specific exposure to an outcome of interest. A research program has been developed that evaluates exposure to different components of movies in an attempt of assess the association of such exposure with the adoption of substance use during adolescence. To assess exposure to movie substance use, one must measure both viewing time and content. In developing the exposure measure, the study team was interested in circumventing a common problem in exposure measurement, where measures often conflate exposure to media with attention to media. Our aim in this paper is to present a validated measure of exposure to entertainment media, the Beach method, which combines recognition of a movie title with content analysis of the movie for substance use, to generate population based measures of exposure to substance use in this form of entertainment. PMID:19122801

Population-Based Assessment of Exposure to Risk Behaviors in Motion Pictures.

PubMed

Sargent, James D; Worth, Keilah A; Beach, Michael; Gerrard, Meg; Heatherton, Todd F

2008-01-01

The aim of most population-based studies of media is to relate a specific exposure to an outcome of interest. A research program has been developed that evaluates exposure to different components of movies in an attempt of assess the association of such exposure with the adoption of substance use during adolescence. To assess exposure to movie substance use, one must measure both viewing time and content. In developing the exposure measure, the study team was interested in circumventing a common problem in exposure measurement, where measures often conflate exposure to media with attention to media. Our aim in this paper is to present a validated measure of exposure to entertainment media, the Beach method, which combines recognition of a movie title with content analysis of the movie for substance use, to generate population based measures of exposure to substance use in this form of entertainment.

Analysis of the prevalence of and risk factors for tinnitus in a young population.

PubMed

Park, Bumjung; Choi, Hyo Geun; Lee, Hyo-Jeong; An, Soo-Youn; Kim, Si Whan; Lee, Joong Seob; Hong, Sung Kwang; Kim, Hyung-Jong

2014-08-01

Tinnitus in children and adolescents is known to be as common as in adults. However, tinnitus in this young population is often overlooked, and a large population-based study designed to adjust for various risk factors for tinnitus is lacking. A cross-sectional study was conducted using data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, with 3047 participants aged 12 to 19 years, from 2008 through 2011. We investigated the tinnitus prevalence by questionnaire and analyzed risk factors for tinnitus of three types: personal, otologic, and parental factors. The prevalence of tinnitus in the young population was 17.7%, although only 0.3% of subjects reported severe discomfort caused by tinnitus. The tinnitus prevalence increased with age (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 1.087). Female gender (AOR, 1.401), sleeping less than 9 hours (sleep 7 or 8 h: AOR, 1.437; sleep 6 h or less: AOR, 1.737), noise exposure in other places (AOR, 6.395), and momentary noise exposure (AOR, 5.504) increased the risk of tinnitus. Participants whose mother had a history of tinnitus showed higher AORs. However, high body mass index, alcohol consumption, stress, monthly household income, having an abnormal tympanic membrane, unilateral or bilateral hearing loss, noise exposure caused by earphone, and noise exposure in the workplace, all reported risk factors for tinnitus, showed no statistically significant difference. A tinnitus history in the father was also not associated with tinnitus in children. We believe that understanding the influences of these factors will help in preventing tinnitus.

Prehypertension and the risk of coronary heart disease in Asian and Western populations: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Huang, Yuli; Cai, Xiaoyan; Liu, Changhua; Zhu, Dingji; Hua, Jinghai; Hu, Yunzhao; Peng, Jian; Xu, Dingli

2015-02-19

The results of studies on the association between prehypertension (blood pressure 120 to 139/80 to 89 mm Hg) and coronary heart disease (CHD) remain controversial. Furthermore, it is unclear whether prehypertension affects the risk of CHD in Asian and Western populations differently. This meta-analysis evaluated the risk of CHD associated with prehypertension and its different subgroups. The PubMed and Embase databases were searched for prospective cohort studies with data on prehypertension and the risk of CHD. Studies were included if they reported multivariate-adjusted relative risks (RRs) with 95% CIs of CHD from prehypertension. A total of 591 664 participants from 17 prospective cohort studies were included. Prehypertension increased the risk of CHD (RR 1.43, 95% CI 1.26 to 1.63, P<0.001) compared with optimal blood pressure (<120/80 mm Hg). The risk of CHD was higher in Western than in Asian participants (Western: RR 1.70, 95% CI 1.49 to 1.94; Asian: RR 1.25, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.38; ratio of RRs 1.36, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.61). The population-attributable risk indicated that 8.4% of CHD in Asian participants was attributed to prehypertension, whereas this proportion was 24.1% in Western participants. Prehypertension, even at the low range, is associated with an increased risk of CHD. This risk is more pronounced in Western than in Asian populations. These results supported the heterogeneity of target-organ damage caused by prehypertension and hypertension among different ethnicities and underscore the importance of prevention of CHD in Western patients with prehypertension. © 2015 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

Genetic Variation in DNA Repair Genes and Prostate Cancer Risk: Results from a Population-Based Study

PubMed Central

Agalliu, Ilir; Kwon, Erika M; Salinas, Claudia A.; Koopmeiners, Joseph S.; Ostrander, Elaine A.; Stanford, Janet L.

2009-01-01

Objective DNA repair pathways are crucial to prevent accumulation of DNA damage and maintain genomic stability. Alterations of this pathway have been reported in many cancers. An increase in oxidative DNA damage or decrease of DNA repair capacity with aging or due to germline genetic variation may affect prostate cancer risk. Methods Pooled data from two population-based studies (1,457 cases and 1,351 controls) were analyzed to examine associations between 28 SNPs in 9 DNA repair genes (APEX1, BRCA2, ERCC2, ERCC4, MGMT, MUTYH, OGG1, XPC, and XRCC1) and prostate cancer risk. We also explored whether associations varied by smoking, by family history or clinical features of prostate cancer. Results There were no associations between these SNPs and overall risk of prostate cancer. Risks did not vary either by smoking or by family history of prostate cancer. Although, two SNPs in BRCA2 (rs144848, rs1801406) and two SNPs in ERCC2 (rs1799793, rs13181) showed stronger associations with high Gleason score or advanced stage tumors when comparing homozygous men carrying the minor vs. major allele, results were not statistically significantly different between clinically aggressive and non-aggressive tumors. Conclusion Overall this study found no associations between prostate cancer and the SNPs in DNA repair genes. Given the complexity of this pathway and its crucial role in maintenance of genomic stability a pathway-based analysis of all 150 genes in DNA repair pathways, as well as exploration of gene-environment interactions may be warranted. PMID:19902366

Population-based study of the association of variants in mismatch repair genes with prostate cancer risk and outcomes

PubMed Central

Langeberg, Wendy J.; Kwon, Erika M.; Koopmeiners, Joseph S.; Ostrander, Elaine A.; Stanford, Janet L.

2009-01-01

Background Mismatch repair (MMR) gene activity may be associated with prostate cancer (PC) risk and outcomes. This study evaluated whether single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in key MMR genes are related to PC outcomes. Methods Data from two population-based case-control studies of PC among Caucasian and African-American men residing in King County, Washington were combined for this analysis. Cases (n=1,458) were diagnosed with PC in 1993–96 or 2002–05 and identified via the Seattle-Puget Sound SEER cancer registry. Controls (n=1,351) were age-matched to cases and identified via random digit dialing. Logistic regression was used to assess the relationship between haplotype-tagging SNPs and PC risk and disease aggressiveness. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess the relationship between SNPs and PC recurrence and PC-specific death. Results Nineteen SNPs were evaluated in the key MMR genes: five in MLH1, 10 in MSH2, and 4 in PMS2. Among Caucasian men, one SNP in MLH1 (rs9852810) was associated with: overall PC risk (OR=1.21, 95% CI=1.02, 1.44; p=0.03), more aggressive PC (OR=1.49, 95% CI=1.15–1.91; p<0.01), and PC recurrence (HR=1.83, 95% CI=1.18, 2.86; p<0.01), but not PC-specific mortality. A non-synonymous coding SNP in MLH1, rs1799977 (I219V), was also found to be associated with more aggressive disease. These results did not remain significant after adjusting for multiple comparisons. Conclusion This population-based case-control study provides evidence for a possible association with a gene variant in MLH1 in relation to risk of overall PC, more aggressive disease, and PC recurrence, which warrants replication. PMID:20056646

Aligning population-based care management with chronic disease complexity.

PubMed

Hewner, Sharon; Seo, Jin Young; Gothard, Sandra E; Johnson, Barbara J

2014-01-01

Risk-stratified care management requires knowledge of the complexity of chronic disease and comorbidity, information that is often not readily available in the primary care setting. The purpose of this article was to describe a population-based approach to risk-stratified care management that could be applied in primary care. Three populations (Medicaid, Medicare, and privately insured) at a regional health plan were divided into risk-stratified cohorts based on chronic disease and complexity, and utilization was compared before and after the implementation of population-specific care management teams of nurses. Risk-stratified care management was associated with reductions in hospitalization rates in all three populations, but the opportunities to avoid admissions were different. Knowledge of population complexity is critical to the development of risk-stratified care management in primary care, and a complexity matrix can help nurses identify gaps in care and align interventions to cohort and population needs. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Psychotropic drugs and the risk of fractures in old age: a prospective population-based study.

PubMed

Nurminen, Janne; Puustinen, Juha; Piirtola, Maarit; Vahlberg, Tero; Kivelä, Sirkka-Liisa

2010-07-06

There is evidence that the use of any psychotropic and the concomitant use of two or more benzodiazepines are related to an increased risk of fractures in old age. However, also controversial results exist. The aim was to describe associations between the use of a psychotropic drug, or the concomitant use of two or more of these drugs and the risk of fractures in a population aged 65 years or over. This study was a part of a prospective longitudinal population-based study carried out in the municipality of Lieto, South-Western Finland. The objective was to describe gender-specific associations between the use of one psychotropic drug [benzodiazepine (BZD), antipsychotic (AP) or antidepressant (AD)] or the concomitant use of two or more psychotropic drugs and the risk of fractures in a population 65 years or over. Subjects were participants in the first wave of the Lieto study in 1990-1991, and they were followed up until the end of 1996. Information about fractures confirmed with radiology reports in 1,177 subjects (482 men and 695 women) during the follow-up was collected from medical records. Two follow-up periods (three and six years) were used, and previously found risk factors of fractures were adjusted as confounding factors separately for men and women. The Poisson regression model was used in the analyses. The concomitant use of two or more BZDs and the concomitant use of two or more APs were related to an increased risk of fractures during both follow-up periods after adjusting for confounding factors in men. No similar associations were found in women. The concomitant use of several BZDs and that of several APs are associated with an increase in the risk of fractures in older men. Our findings show only risk relations. We cannot draw the conclusion that these drug combinations are causes of fractures.

Thalassaemia and risk of cancer: a population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Chung, Wei-Sheng; Lin, Chun-Liang; Lin, Cheng-Li; Kao, Chia-Hung

2015-11-01

Studies that have investigated the epidemiological relationship between thalassaemia and cancers are scarce. Therefore, we conducted a longitudinal nationwide cohort study to determine whether patients with thalassaemia are at an increased risk of cancer. We investigated the incidence and risk of cancer in 2655 patients diagnosed with thalassaemia between 1998 and 2010 by using data from the Taiwan Longitudinal Health Insurance Database. The comparison cohort comprised 10 620 people from the general population without thalassaemia. The follow-up period extended from the diagnostic date for thalassaemia to the date of a cancer diagnosis, censoring or 31 December 2011. We used Cox proportional hazard regression models to analyse the risks of cancer. The incidences of cancer were 3.96 and 2.60/1000 person-years for the thalassaemia and comparison cohorts, respectively. The overall incidence of cancer was 52% higher in the thalassaemia cohort than in the comparison cohort, with an adjusted HR (aHR) of 1.54 (95% CI 1.15 to 2.07). Patients with thalassaemia had a considerably higher risk of haematological malignancy (aHR=5.32, 95% CI 2.18 to 13.0) and abdominal cancer (aHR=1.96, 95% CI 1.22 to 3.15) than did the comparison cohort. Furthermore, patients with thalassaemia with transfusion exhibited a 9.31-fold risk for developing haematological malignancy and a 9.12-fold risk for developing abdominal cancer compared with those who did not receive transfusion. This nationwide retrospective cohort study indicates that patients with thalassaemia carried substantial risks of haematological malignancy and abdominal cancer compared with those of the general population. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky

Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presentedmore » a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.« less

Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

2016-04-01

Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

Risk Factors for Child Malnutrition in Bangladesh: A Multilevel Analysis of a Nationwide Population-Based Survey.

PubMed

Chowdhury, Mohammad Rocky Khan; Rahman, Mohammad Shafiur; Khan, Mohammad Mubarak Hossain; Mondal, Mohammad Nazrul Islam; Rahman, Mohammad Mosiur; Billah, Baki

2016-05-01

To identify the prevalence and risk factors of child malnutrition in Bangladesh. Data was extracted from the Bangladesh Demographic Health Survey (2011). The outcome measures were stunting, wasting, and underweight. χ(2) analysis was performed to find the association of outcome variables with selected factors. Multilevel logistic regression models with a random intercept at each of the household and community levels were used to identify the risk factors of stunting, wasting, and underweight. From the 2011 survey, 7568 children less than 5 years of age were included in the current analysis. The overall prevalence of stunting, wasting, and underweight was 41.3% (95% CI 39.0-42.9). The χ(2) test and multilevel logistic regression analysis showed that the variables age, sex, mother's body mass index, mother's educational status, father's educational status, place of residence, socioeconomic status, community status, religion, region of residence, and food security are significant factors of child malnutrition. Children with poor socioeconomic and community status were at higher risk of malnutrition. Children from food insecure families were more likely to be malnourished. Significant community- and household-level variations were found. The prevalence of child malnutrition is still high in Bangladesh, and the risk was assessed at several multilevel factors. Therefore, prevention of malnutrition should be given top priority as a major public health intervention. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Promoting Physical Activity With Group Pictures. Affiliation-Based Visual Communication for High-Risk Populations.

PubMed

Reifegerste, Doreen; Rossmann, Constanze

2017-02-01

Past research in social and health psychology has shown that affiliation motivation is associated with health behavior, especially for high-risk populations, suggesting that targeting this motivation could be a promising strategy to promote physical activity. However, the effects that affiliation appeals (e.g., pictures depicting companionship during physical activities) and accompanying slogans have on motivating physical activity have been largely unexplored. Hence, our two studies experimentally tested the effects of exposure to affiliation-based pictures for overweight or less active people, as well as the moderating effect of affiliation motivation. The results of these two studies give some indication that group pictures (with or without an accompanying slogan) can be an effective strategy to improve high-risk populations' attitudes, self-efficacy, and intentions to engage in physical activity. Affiliation motivation as a personality trait did not interact with these effects, but was positively associated with attitudes, independent of the group picture effect.

Socioeconomic inequalities in risk of hospitalization for community-acquired bacteremia: a Danish population-based case-control study.

PubMed

Koch, Kristoffer; Søgaard, Mette; Nørgaard, Mette; Thomsen, Reimar Wernich; Schønheyder, Henrik Carl

2014-05-01

In a Danish population-based case-control study, we examined the association between socioeconomic status (SES) and risk of community-acquired bacteremia, as well as the contribution of chronic diseases and substance abuse to differences in bacteremia risk. Analyses were based on 4,117 patients aged 30-65 years who were hospitalized with first-time community-acquired bacteremia during 2000-2008 and 41,170 population controls matched by sex, age, and region of residence. Individual-level information on SES (education and income), chronic diseases, and substance abuse was retrieved from public and medical registries. Conditional logistic regression was used to compute odds ratios for bacteremia. Persons of low SES had a substantially higher risk of bacteremia than those of high SES (for short duration of education vs. long duration, odds ratio = 2.30 (95% confidence interval: 2.10, 2.52); for low income vs. high income, odds ratio = 2.77 (95% confidence interval: 2.54, 3.02)). A higher prevalence of chronic diseases and substance abuse in low-SES individuals versus high-SES individuals explained 43%-48% of the socioeconomic differences in bacteremia risk. In a country with a universal welfare system, differences in the burden of chronic diseases and substance abuse seem to have major importance in explaining inequalities in bacteremia risk.

Cancer Incidence in Physicians: A Taiwan National Population-based Cohort Study.

PubMed

Lee, Yu-Sung; Hsu, Chien-Chin; Weng, Shih-Feng; Lin, Hung-Jung; Wang, Jhi-Joung; Su, Shih-Bin; Huang, Chien-Cheng; Guo, How-Ran

2015-11-01

Cancer has been the leading cause of death in Taiwan since 1982. Physicians have many health-related risk factors which may contribute to cancer, such as rotating night shift, radiation, poor lifestyle, and higher exposure risk to infection and potential carcinogenic drugs. However, the cancer risk in physicians is not clear. In Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database, we identified 14,889 physicians as the study cohort and randomly selected 29,778 nonmedical staff patients as the comparison cohort for this national population-based cohort study. Cox proportional-hazard regression was used to compare the cancer risk between physicians and comparisons. Physician subgroups were also analyzed. Physicians had a lower all-cancer risk than did the comparisons (hazard ratio [HR] 0.86, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.76-0.97). In the sex-based analysis, male physicians had a lower all-cancer risk than did male comparisons (HR 0.82, 95% CI 0.73-0.94); and female physicians did not (HR 1.29, 95% CI 0.88-1.91). In the cancer-type analysis, male physicians had a higher risk of prostate cancer (HR 1.72, 95% CI 1.12-2.65) and female physicians had twice the risk of breast cancer (HR 2.00, 95% CI 1.11-3.62) than did comparisons. Cancer risk was not significantly associated with physician specialties. Physicians in Taiwan had a lower all-cancer risk but higher risks for prostate and breast cancer than did the general population. These new epidemiological findings require additional study to clarify possible mechanisms.

Sarcoidosis Increases Risk of Hospitalized Infection. A Population-based Study, 1976–2013

PubMed Central

Crowson, Cynthia S.; Matteson, Eric L.

2017-01-01

Rationale: Patients with sarcoidosis may have an increased risk of infection similar to other immune-mediated disorders. However, the data are still limited. Objectives: To investigate the risk of hospitalized infection among patients with sarcoidosis, using a population-based cohort. Methods: Using the Rochester Epidemiology Project record-linkage system, a cohort of incident cases of sarcoidosis in Olmsted County, Minnesota from 1976 to 2013 was identified. Diagnosis was confirmed by individual medical record review. For each patient with sarcoidosis, a sex- and age-matched comparator without sarcoidosis was randomly selected from the same population. Medical records of cases and comparators were individually reviewed for hospitalized infection that occurred after the index date. The cumulative incidence of hospitalized infection overall and by type of infection, adjusted for the competing risk of death, was estimated. Cox models were used to compare the rate of first hospitalized infection between cases and comparators and to evaluate the association between use of immunosuppressive agents and hospitalized infection among cases. Results: Three hundred and forty-five cases and 345 comparators were identified. Patients with sarcoidosis had a higher risk of a hospitalized infection with a hazard ratio (HR) of 2.00 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.41–2.84), adjusted for age, sex, and calendar year of index date. Use of oral glucocorticoids was a significant predictor of hospitalized infection with an HR of 3.03 (95% CI, 1.33–6.90) for oral glucocorticoids not exceeding 10 mg/day and an HR of 4.48 (95% CI, 1.54–13.03) for oral glucocorticoids greater than 10 mg/day. Conclusions: Patients with sarcoidosis are at increased risk of hospitalized infection. Glucocorticoid therapy is strongly associated with this increased risk. PMID:28177656

78 FR 69604 - Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-11-20

... Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk- Based Preventive Controls for Human Food; Extension of... Hazard Analysis and Risk- Based Preventive Controls for Human Food'' and its information collection... Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for Human Food.'' IV. How To...

A simple risk score for identifying individuals with impaired fasting glucose in the Southern Chinese population.

PubMed

Wang, Hui; Liu, Tao; Qiu, Quan; Ding, Peng; He, Yan-Hui; Chen, Wei-Qing

2015-01-23

This study aimed to develop and validate a simple risk score for detecting individuals with impaired fasting glucose (IFG) among the Southern Chinese population. A sample of participants aged ≥20 years and without known diabetes from the 2006-2007 Guangzhou diabetes cross-sectional survey was used to develop separate risk scores for men and women. The participants completed a self-administered structured questionnaire and underwent simple clinical measurements. The risk scores were developed by multiple logistic regression analysis. External validation was performed based on three other studies: the 2007 Zhuhai rural population-based study, the 2008-2010 Guangzhou diabetes cross-sectional study and the 2007 Tibet population-based study. Performance of the scores was measured with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and ROC c-statistic. Age, waist circumference, body mass index and family history of diabetes were included in the risk score for both men and women, with the additional factor of hypertension for men. The ROC c-statistic was 0.70 for both men and women in the derivation samples. Risk scores of ≥28 for men and ≥18 for women showed respective sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 56.6%, 71.7%, 13.0% and 96.0% for men and 68.7%, 60.2%, 11% and 96.0% for women in the derivation population. The scores performed comparably with the Zhuhai rural sample and the 2008-2010 Guangzhou urban samples but poorly in the Tibet sample. The performance of pre-existing USA, Shanghai, and Chengdu risk scores was poorer in our population than in their original study populations. The results suggest that the developed simple IFG risk scores can be generalized in Guangzhou city and nearby rural regions and may help primary health care workers to identify individuals with IFG in their practice.

A Simple Risk Score for Identifying Individuals with Impaired Fasting Glucose in the Southern Chinese Population

PubMed Central

Wang, Hui; Liu, Tao; Qiu, Quan; Ding, Peng; He, Yan-Hui; Chen, Wei-Qing

2015-01-01

This study aimed to develop and validate a simple risk score for detecting individuals with impaired fasting glucose (IFG) among the Southern Chinese population. A sample of participants aged ≥20 years and without known diabetes from the 2006–2007 Guangzhou diabetes cross-sectional survey was used to develop separate risk scores for men and women. The participants completed a self-administered structured questionnaire and underwent simple clinical measurements. The risk scores were developed by multiple logistic regression analysis. External validation was performed based on three other studies: the 2007 Zhuhai rural population-based study, the 2008–2010 Guangzhou diabetes cross-sectional study and the 2007 Tibet population-based study. Performance of the scores was measured with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and ROC c-statistic. Age, waist circumference, body mass index and family history of diabetes were included in the risk score for both men and women, with the additional factor of hypertension for men. The ROC c-statistic was 0.70 for both men and women in the derivation samples. Risk scores of ≥28 for men and ≥18 for women showed respective sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 56.6%, 71.7%, 13.0% and 96.0% for men and 68.7%, 60.2%, 11% and 96.0% for women in the derivation population. The scores performed comparably with the Zhuhai rural sample and the 2008–2010 Guangzhou urban samples but poorly in the Tibet sample. The performance of pre-existing USA, Shanghai, and Chengdu risk scores was poorer in our population than in their original study populations. The results suggest that the developed simple IFG risk scores can be generalized in Guangzhou city and nearby rural regions and may help primary health care workers to identify individuals with IFG in their practice. PMID:25625405

High coffee consumption and different brewing methods in relation to postmenopausal endometrial cancer risk in the Norwegian Women and Cancer Study: a population-based prospective study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Coffee and its compounds have been proposed to inhibit endometrial carcinogenesis. Studies in the Norwegian population can be especially interesting due to the high coffee consumption and increasing incidence of endometrial cancer in the country. Methods A total of 97 926 postmenopausal Norwegian women from the population-based prospective Norwegian Women and Cancer (NOWAC) Study, were included in the present analysis. We evaluated the general association between total coffee consumption and endometrial cancer risk as well as the possible impact of brewing method. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to estimate risks, and heterogeneity tests were performed to compare brewing methods. Results During an average of 10.9 years of follow-up, 462 incident endometrial cancer cases were identified. After multivariate adjustment, significant risk reduction was found among participants who drank ≥8 cups/day of coffee with a hazard ratio of 0.52 (95% confidence interval, CI 0.34-0.79). However, we did not observe a significant dose-response relationship. No significant heterogeneity in risk was found when comparing filtered and boiled coffee brewing methods. A reduction in endometrial cancer risk was observed in subgroup analyses among participants who drank ≥8 cups/day and had a body mass index ≥25 kg/m2, and in current smokers. Conclusions These data suggest that in this population with high coffee consumption, endometrial cancer risk decreases in women consuming ≥8 cups/day, independent of brewing method. PMID:24666820

High coffee consumption and different brewing methods in relation to postmenopausal endometrial cancer risk in the Norwegian women and cancer study: a population-based prospective study.

PubMed

Gavrilyuk, Oxana; Braaten, Tonje; Skeie, Guri; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Dumeaux, Vanessa; Lund, Eiliv

2014-03-25

Coffee and its compounds have been proposed to inhibit endometrial carcinogenesis. Studies in the Norwegian population can be especially interesting due to the high coffee consumption and increasing incidence of endometrial cancer in the country. A total of 97 926 postmenopausal Norwegian women from the population-based prospective Norwegian Women and Cancer (NOWAC) Study, were included in the present analysis. We evaluated the general association between total coffee consumption and endometrial cancer risk as well as the possible impact of brewing method. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to estimate risks, and heterogeneity tests were performed to compare brewing methods. During an average of 10.9 years of follow-up, 462 incident endometrial cancer cases were identified. After multivariate adjustment, significant risk reduction was found among participants who drank ≥8 cups/day of coffee with a hazard ratio of 0.52 (95% confidence interval, CI 0.34-0.79). However, we did not observe a significant dose-response relationship. No significant heterogeneity in risk was found when comparing filtered and boiled coffee brewing methods. A reduction in endometrial cancer risk was observed in subgroup analyses among participants who drank ≥8 cups/day and had a body mass index ≥25 kg/m2, and in current smokers. These data suggest that in this population with high coffee consumption, endometrial cancer risk decreases in women consuming ≥8 cups/day, independent of brewing method.

Sarcoma risk and dioxin emissions from incinerators and industrial plants: a population-based case-control study (Italy)

PubMed Central

Zambon, Paola; Ricci, Paolo; Bovo, Emanuela; Casula, Alessandro; Gattolin, Massimo; Fiore, Anna Rita; Chiosi, Francesco; Guzzinati, Stefano

2007-01-01

Background It is not clear whether environmental exposure to dioxin affects the general population. The aim of this research is to evaluate sarcoma risk in relation to the environmental pollution caused by dioxin emitted by waste incinerators and industrial sources of airborne dioxin. The study population lives in a part of the Province of Venice (Italy), where a population-based cancer registry (Veneto Tumour Registry – RTV) has been active since 1987. Methods Two hundred and five cases of visceral and extravisceral sarcoma, confirmed by microscopic examination, diagnosed from 01.01.1990 to 31.12.1996, were extracted from the RTV database. Diagnoses were revised using the actual pathology reports and clinical records. For each sarcoma case, three controls of the same age and sex were randomly selected from the population files of the Local Health Units (LHUs). The residential history of each subject, whether case or control, was reconstructed, address by address, from 1960 to the date of diagnosis. All waste incinerators and industrial sources of airborne dioxin in the Province of Venice were taken into account, as was one very large municipal waste incinerator outside the area but close to its boundaries. The Industrial Source Complex Model in Long Term mode, version 3 (ISCLT3), was used to assess the level of atmospheric dispersion. A specific value for exposure was calculated for each point (geo-referenced address) and for each calendar year; the exposure value for each subject is expressed as the average of specific time-weighted values. The analysis takes into account 172 cases and 405 controls, aged more than 14 years. Results The risk of developing a sarcoma is 3.3 times higher (95% Confidence Interval – 95% CI: 1.24 – 8.76) among subjects, both sexes, with the longest exposure period and the highest exposure level ; a significant excess of risk was also observed in women (Odds Ratio OR = 2.41, 95% CI: 1.04 – 5.59) and for cancers of the connective

Use of Hip Arthroscopy and Risk of Conversion to Total Hip Arthroplasty: A Population-Based Analysis.

PubMed

Schairer, William W; Nwachukwu, Benedict U; McCormick, Frank; Lyman, Stephen; Mayman, David

2016-04-01

To use population-level data to (1) evaluate the conversion rate of total hip arthroplasty (THA) within 2 years of hip arthroscopy and (2) assess the influence of age, arthritis, and obesity on the rate of conversion to THA. We used the State Ambulatory Surgery Databases and State Inpatient Databases for California and Florida from 2005 through 2012, which contain 100% of patient visits. Hip arthroscopy patients were tracked for subsequent primary THA within 2 years. Out-of-state patients and patients with less than 2 years follow-up were excluded. Multivariate analysis identified risks for subsequent hip arthroplasty after arthroscopy. We identified 7,351 patients who underwent hip arthroscopy with 2 years follow-up. The mean age was 43.9 ± 13.7 years, and 58.8% were female patients. Overall, 11.7% of patients underwent THA conversion within 2 years. The conversion rate was lowest in patients aged younger than 40 years (3.0%) and highest in the 60- to 69-year-old group (35.0%) (P < .001). We found an increased risk of THA conversion in older patients and in patients with osteoarthritis or obesity at the time of hip arthroscopy. Patients treated at high-volume hip arthroscopy centers had a lower THA conversion rate than those treated at low-volume centers (15.1% v 9.7%, P < .001). Hip arthroscopy is performed in patients of various ages, including middle-aged and elderly patients. Older patients have a higher rate of conversion to THA, as do patients with osteoarthritis or obesity. Level III, retrospective comparative study. Copyright © 2016 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prostate-Specific Antigen (PSA)–Based Population Screening for Prostate Cancer: An Economic Analysis

PubMed Central

Tawfik, A

2015-01-01

Background The prostate-specific antigen (PSA) blood test has become widely used in Canada to test for prostate cancer (PC), the most common cancer among Canadian men. Data suggest that population-based PSA screening may not improve overall survival. Objectives This analysis aimed to review existing economic evaluations of population-based PSA screening, determine current spending on opportunistic PSA screening in Ontario, and estimate the cost of introducing a population-based PSA screening program in the province. Methods A systematic literature search was performed to identify economic evaluations of population-based PSA screening strategies published from 1998 to 2013. Studies were assessed for their methodological quality and applicability to the Ontario setting. An original cost analysis was also performed, using data from Ontario administrative sources and from the published literature. One-year costs were estimated for 4 strategies: no screening, current (opportunistic) screening of men aged 40 years and older, current (opportunistic) screening of men aged 50 to 74 years, and population-based screening of men aged 50 to 74 years. The analysis was conducted from the payer perspective. Results The literature review demonstrated that, overall, population-based PSA screening is costly and cost-ineffective but may be cost-effective in specific populations. Only 1 Canadian study, published 15 years ago, was identified. Approximately $119.2 million is being spent annually on PSA screening of men aged 40 years and older in Ontario, including close to $22 million to screen men younger than 50 and older than 74 years of age (i.e., outside the target age range for a population-based program). A population-based screening program in Ontario would cost approximately $149.4 million in the first year. Limitations Estimates were based on the synthesis of data from a variety of sources, requiring several assumptions and causing uncertainty in the results. For example, where

The Impact of Clinical, Demographic and Risk Factors on Rates of HIV Transmission: A Population-based Phylogenetic Analysis in British Columbia, Canada

PubMed Central

Poon, Art F. Y.; Joy, Jeffrey B.; Woods, Conan K.; Shurgold, Susan; Colley, Guillaume; Brumme, Chanson J.; Hogg, Robert S.; Montaner, Julio S. G.; Harrigan, P. Richard

2015-01-01

Background. The diversification of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is shaped by its transmission history. We therefore used a population based province wide HIV drug resistance database in British Columbia (BC), Canada, to evaluate the impact of clinical, demographic, and behavioral factors on rates of HIV transmission. Methods. We reconstructed molecular phylogenies from 27 296 anonymized bulk HIV pol sequences representing 7747 individuals in BC—about half the estimated HIV prevalence in BC. Infections were grouped into clusters based on phylogenetic distances, as a proxy for variation in transmission rates. Rates of cluster expansion were reconstructed from estimated dates of HIV seroconversion. Results. Our criteria grouped 4431 individuals into 744 clusters largely separated with respect to risk factors, including large established clusters predominated by injection drug users and more-recently emerging clusters comprising men who have sex with men. The mean log10 viral load of an individual's phylogenetic neighborhood (composed of 5 other individuals with shortest phylogenetic distances) increased their odds of appearing in a cluster by >2-fold per log10 viruses per milliliter. Conclusions. Hotspots of ongoing HIV transmission can be characterized in near real time by the secondary analysis of HIV resistance genotypes, providing an important potential resource for targeting public health initiatives for HIV prevention. PMID:25312037

The association between urinary calculi and increased risk of future cardiovascular events: A nationwide population-based study.

PubMed

Hsu, Chien-Yi; Chen, Yung-Tai; Huang, Po-Hsun; Leu, Hsin-Bang; Su, Yu-Wen; Chiang, Chia-Hung; Chen, Jaw-Wen; Chen, Tzeng-Ji; Lin, Shing-Jong; Chan, Wan-Leong

2016-05-01

Although accumulating evidence suggests urinary calculi may be associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), the number of longitudinal studies linking urolithiasis to CVD events is limited. We investigated the association between urinary calculi and the risk of development of myocardial infarction (MI) and/or stroke in a nationwide, population-based cohort database in Taiwan. Our analyses were conducted using information from a random sample of 1 million people enrolled in the nationally representative Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. A total of 81,546 subjects aged 18 years or above, including 40,773 subjects diagnosed with urinary calculi during the study period and a propensity score-matched 40,773 subjects without urinary calculi were enrolled in our study. During a 10-year follow-up period, 501 MI events and 1295 stroke events were identified. By comparison, the urinary calculi group had a higher incidence rate of MI occurrence (11.79 vs 8.94 per 10,000 person-years) and stroke (31.41 vs 22.45 per 10,000 person-years). Cox proportional hazard regression model analysis showed that development of urinary calculi was independently associated with higher risk of developing future MI (HR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.09-1.56, p=0.003), stroke (HR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.24-1.55, p<0.001), and total cardiovascular events (HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.25-1.51, p<0.001). Urinary calculi were associated with an increased risk of future cardiovascular events in the Asian population, which was consistent with the recent epidemiologic evidence in Western countries. Copyright © 2015 Japanese College of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Serum organochlorine pesticide residues and risk of testicular germ cell carcinoma: a population-based case-control study.

PubMed

Biggs, Mary L; Davis, Mark D; Eaton, David L; Weiss, Noel S; Barr, Dana B; Doody, David R; Fish, Sherianne; Needham, Larry L; Chen, Chu; Schwartz, Stephen M

2008-08-01

Testicular germ cell carcinoma (TGCC) is the most common malignancy among men ages 20 to 34 years. Although the pathogenesis of TGCC is poorly understood, suboptimal androgen levels or impaired androgen signaling may play a role. Some persistent organochlorine pesticides commonly found in human tissue possess antiandrogenic properties. We examined whether the risk of TGCC is associated with serum levels of 11 organochlorine pesticides, including p,p'-DDE, and whether the p,p'-DDE-TGCC association is modified by CAG or GGN repeat polymorphisms in the androgen receptor gene. We conducted a population-based case-control study among 18- to 44-year-old male residents of three Washington State counties. Cases (n = 246) were diagnosed during 1999 to 2003 with a first, primary TGCC. Controls (n = 630) were men of similar age with no history of TGCC from the same population identified through random-digit telephone dialing. Questionnaires elicited information on demographic, medical, and lifestyle factors. A blood specimen provided serum for gas chromatography-high-resolution mass spectrometry analysis of organochlorine pesticide residues and DNA for genotyping. We observed no clear patterns between TGCC risk and concentrations of any of the organochlorines measured, nor did we observe that the risk associated with p,p'-DDE was modified by androgen receptor CAG (<23 versus > or =23 repeats) or GGN (<17 versus > or =17 repeats) genotype. This study does not provide support for the hypothesis that adult exposure to organochlorine pesticides is associated with risk of TGCC. Due to uncertainty regarding how well organochlorine levels measured in adulthood reflect exposures during early life, further research is needed using exposure measurements collected in utero or during infancy.

78 FR 11611 - Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-02-19

... Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk- Based Preventive Controls for Human Food; Extension of... Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for Human Food.'' FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Domini Bean... Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for Human Food'' with a 120-day comment...

Risk factors for pneumonic and ulceroglandular tularaemia in Finland: a population-based case-control study.

PubMed

Rossow, H; Ollgren, J; Klemets, P; Pietarinen, I; Saikku, J; Pekkanen, E; Nikkari, S; Syrjälä, H; Kuusi, M; Nuorti, J P

2014-10-01

Few population-based data are available on factors associated with pneumonic and ulceroglandular type B tularaemia. We conducted a case-control study during a large epidemic in 2000. Laboratory-confirmed case patients were identified through active surveillance and matched control subjects (age, sex, residency) from the national population information system. Data were collected using a self-administered questionnaire. A conditional logistic regression model addressing missing data with Bayesian full-likelihood modelling included 227 case patients and 415 control subjects; reported mosquito bites [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 9·2, 95% confidence interval (CI) 4·4-22, population-attributable risk (PAR) 82%] and farming activities (aOR 4·3, 95% CI 2·5-7·2, PAR 32%) were independently associated with ulceroglandular tularaemia, whereas exposure to hay dust (aOR 6·6, 95% CI 1·9-25·4, PAR 48%) was associated with pneumonic tularaemia. Although the bulk of tularaemia type B disease burden is attributable to mosquito bites, risk factors for ulceroglandular and pneumonic forms of tularaemia are different, enabling targeting of prevention efforts accordingly.

Living alone, obesity, and smoking increase risk for suicide independently of depressive mood findings from the population-based MONICA/KORA Augsburg cohort study.

PubMed

Schneider, Barbara; Lukaschek, Karoline; Baumert, Jens; Meisinger, Christa; Erazo, Natalia; Ladwig, Karl-Heinz

2014-01-01

Suicide is strongly associated with mental disorders, particularly with depression. There is insufficient knowledge to what extent sociodemographic and behavioral characteristics contribute to suicide risk. A population-based cohort study on three independent cross-sectional MONICA/KORA Augsburg surveys with 12,888 subjects (6456 men, 6432 women) was followed up on average for 12.0 years. Information on sociodemographic characteristics, chronic disease conditions, smoking habits, alcohol consumption, depressive symptoms, personality type, and other psychodiagnostic parameters was assessed by standardized interviews. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to compute hazard ratios (HRs) as estimates of relative risks for suicide mortality. Additionally, population-attributable risks were calculated. Within the follow-up period, a total of 1449 persons had died, 38 of them by suicide. Although several variables were associated with increased risk in the basic analyses, only obesity (HR=2.73), smoking (HR=2.23), and living alone (HR=2.19) remained significantly associated with suicide additionally to male sex (HR=3.57) and depressed mood (HR=2.01) in a multivariate analysis. The generalization of our findings to countries with different social, economic or cultural conditions may be questioned. Our findings extend the knowledge about sociodemographic and behavioral risk factors for suicide in the general population: Suicide prevention measures should not consider only subjects with mental disorders but also address other adverse conditions. © 2013 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Is risk analysis scientific?

PubMed

Hansson, Sven Ove; Aven, Terje

2014-07-01

This article discusses to what extent risk analysis is scientific in view of a set of commonly used definitions and criteria. We consider scientific knowledge to be characterized by its subject matter, its success in developing the best available knowledge in its fields of study, and the epistemic norms and values that guide scientific investigations. We proceed to assess the field of risk analysis according to these criteria. For this purpose, we use a model for risk analysis in which science is used as a base for decision making on risks, which covers the five elements evidence, knowledge base, broad risk evaluation, managerial review and judgment, and the decision; and that relates these elements to the domains experts and decisionmakers, and to the domains fact-based or value-based. We conclude that risk analysis is a scientific field of study, when understood as consisting primarily of (i) knowledge about risk-related phenomena, processes, events, etc., and (ii) concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and manage risk, in general and for specific applications (the instrumental part). © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Genome-wide association study and meta-analysis in Northern European populations replicate multiple colorectal cancer risk loci.

PubMed

Tanskanen, Tomas; van den Berg, Linda; Välimäki, Niko; Aavikko, Mervi; Ness-Jensen, Eivind; Hveem, Kristian; Wettergren, Yvonne; Bexe Lindskog, Elinor; Tõnisson, Neeme; Metspalu, Andres; Silander, Kaisa; Orlando, Giulia; Law, Philip J; Tuupanen, Sari; Gylfe, Alexandra E; Hänninen, Ulrika A; Cajuso, Tatiana; Kondelin, Johanna; Sarin, Antti-Pekka; Pukkala, Eero; Jousilahti, Pekka; Salomaa, Veikko; Ripatti, Samuli; Palotie, Aarno; Järvinen, Heikki; Renkonen-Sinisalo, Laura; Lepistö, Anna; Böhm, Jan; Mecklin, Jukka-Pekka; Al-Tassan, Nada A; Palles, Claire; Martin, Lynn; Barclay, Ella; Tenesa, Albert; Farrington, Susan M; Timofeeva, Maria N; Meyer, Brian F; Wakil, Salma M; Campbell, Harry; Smith, Christopher G; Idziaszczyk, Shelley; Maughan, Tim S; Kaplan, Richard; Kerr, Rachel; Kerr, David; Buchanan, Daniel D; Win, Aung K; Hopper, John; Jenkins, Mark A; Newcomb, Polly A; Gallinger, Steve; Conti, David; Schumacher, Fredrick R; Casey, Graham; Cheadle, Jeremy P; Dunlop, Malcolm G; Tomlinson, Ian P; Houlston, Richard S; Palin, Kimmo; Aaltonen, Lauri A

2018-02-01

Genome-wide association studies have been successful in elucidating the genetic basis of colorectal cancer (CRC), but there remains unexplained variability in genetic risk. To identify new risk variants and to confirm reported associations, we conducted a genome-wide association study in 1,701 CRC cases and 14,082 cancer-free controls from the Finnish population. A total of 9,068,015 genetic variants were imputed and tested, and 30 promising variants were studied in additional 11,647 cases and 12,356 controls of European ancestry. The previously reported association between the single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs992157 (2q35) and CRC was independently replicated (p = 2.08 × 10 -4 ; OR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.06-1.23), and it was genome-wide significant in combined analysis (p = 1.50 × 10 -9 ; OR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.08-1.16). Variants at 2q35, 6p21.2, 8q23.3, 8q24.21, 10q22.3, 10q24.2, 11q13.4, 11q23.1, 14q22.2, 15q13.3, 18q21.1, 20p12.3 and 20q13.33 were associated with CRC in the Finnish population (false discovery rate < 0.1), but new risk loci were not found. These results replicate the effects of multiple loci on the risk of CRC and identify shared risk alleles between the Finnish population isolate and outbred populations. © 2017 UICC.

Increased risk for hypothyroidism after anticholinesterase pesticide poisoning: a nationwide population-based study.

PubMed

Huang, Hung-Sheng; Lee, Keng-Wei; Ho, Chung-Han; Hsu, Chien-Chin; Su, Shih-Bin; Wang, Jhi-Joung; Lin, Hung-Jung; Huang, Chien-Cheng

2017-09-01

Previous animal studies have reported that acute anticholinesterase pesticide (organophosphate and carbamate) poisoning may affect thyroid hormones. However, there is no human study investigating the association between hypothyroidism and anticholinesterase pesticide poisoning, and therefore, we conducted a retrospective nationwide population-based cohort study to delineate this issue. We identified 10,372 anticholinesterase pesticide poisoning subjects and matched 31,116 non-anticholinesterase pesticide poisoning subjects between 2003 and 2012 from the Nationwide Poisoning Database and the Longitudinal Health Insurance Database 2000, respectively, in a 1:3 ratio by index date, age, and sex for this study. We compared the cumulative incidence of hypothyroidism between the two cohorts by following up until 2013. Independent predictors for hypothyroidism were also investigated. In total, 75 (0.72%) anticholinesterase pesticide poisoning subjects and 184 (0.59%) non-anticholinesterase pesticide poisoning subjects were diagnosed with hypothyroidism during the follow-up. Cox proportional hazard regression analysis showed that anticholinesterase pesticide poisoning subjects had higher risk for hypothyroidism than did non-anticholinesterase pesticide poisoning subjects (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.47, 95% confidence interval: 1.11-1.95) after adjusting for age, sex, hypertension, malignancy, liver disease, renal disease, atrial fibrillation or flutter, thyroiditis, goiter, other endocrine disorders, and mental disorder. Stratified analysis showed that anticholinesterase pesticide poisoning subjects had higher risk for hypothyroidism than did non-anticholinesterase pesticide poisoning subjects in terms of the age subgroup of 40-64 years, female sex, past history of goiter, follow-up of <1 month, and anticholinesterase pesticide poisoning subjects without atropine treatment (incidence rate ratio [IRR]: 1.66, 95% confidence interval: 1.20-2.30). Female sex, malignancy, renal

Cost effectiveness of population based BRCA1 founder mutation testing in Sephardi Jewish women.

PubMed

Patel, Shreeya; Legood, Rosa; Evans, D Gareth; Turnbull, Clare; Antoniou, Antonis C; Menon, Usha; Jacobs, Ian; Manchanda, Ranjit

2018-04-01

Population-based BRCA1/BRCA2 founder-mutation testing has been demonstrated as cost effective compared with family history based testing in Ashkenazi Jewish women. However, only 1 of the 3 Ashkenazi Jewish BRCA1/BRCA2 founder mutations (185delAG[c.68_69delAG]), 5382insC[c.5266dupC]), and 6174delT[c.5946delT]) is found in the Sephardi Jewish population (185delAG[c.68_69delAG]), and the overall prevalence of BRCA mutations in the Sephardi Jewish population is accordingly lower (0.7% compared with 2.5% in the Ashkenazi Jewish population). Cost-effectiveness analyses of BRCA testing have not previously been performed at these lower BRCA prevalence levels seen in the Sephardi Jewish population. Here we present a cost-effectiveness analysis for UK and US populations comparing population testing with clinical criteria/family history-based testing in Sephardi Jewish women. A Markov model was built comparing the lifetime costs and effects of population-based BRCA1 testing, with testing using family history-based clinical criteria in Sephardi Jewish women aged ≥30 years. BRCA1 carriers identified were offered magnetic resonance imaging/mammograms and risk-reducing surgery. Costs are reported at 2015 prices. Outcomes include breast cancer, ovarian cancer, and excess deaths from heart disease. All costs and outcomes are discounted at 3.5%. The time horizon is lifetime, and perspective is payer. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio per quality-adjusted life-year was calculated. Parameter uncertainty was evaluated through 1-way and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Population testing resulted in gain in life expectancy of 12 months (quality-adjusted life-year = 1.00). The baseline discounted incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for UK population-based testing was £67.04/quality-adjusted life-year and for US population was $308.42/quality-adjusted life-year. Results were robust in the 1-way sensitivity analysis. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed 100% of

78 FR 24691 - Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-26

... Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk- Based Preventive Controls for Human Food; Extension of... Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for Human Food'' that appeared in... Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for Human Food'' with a 120-day...

Risk-Based Explosive Safety Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-11-30

safety siting of energetic liquids and propellants can be greatly aided by the use of risk-based methodologies. The low probability of exposed...liquids or propellants . 15. SUBJECT TERMS N/A 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT 18. NUMBER OF PAGES 19a. NAME OF...of energetic liquids and propellants can be greatly aided by the use of risk-based methodologies. The low probability of exposed personnel and the

Napping and the risk of type 2 diabetes: a population-based prospective study.

PubMed

Hublin, Christer; Lehtovirta, Mikko; Partinen, Markku; Koskenvuo, Markku; Kaprio, Jaakko

2016-01-01

Some studies indicate an association between napping and increased risk of type 2 diabetes. We studied this prospectively in a sample representative of general population. A questionnaire was administered to the Finnish Twin Cohort in 1990 (response rate 77%, age 33-60 years). The study population included 12,244 subjects who replied to the question "Do you sleep during the daytime (take naps)?" with five response alternatives ranging from "no need" to "every or almost every day." Information on incident cases of diabetes was obtained by linkage to nationwide registers. Logistic regression models were used to obtain odds ratios (ORs) (95% confidence intervals) for incident type 2 diabetes risk in 1991-2004 by napping category. Adjustments were made for 11 socio-demographic and lifestyle covariates. For subjects aged 33-45 years at baseline, a questionnaire in 2011 provided information on prevalent diabetes. Thirty-four per cent had no need for napping, and 15% did so on ≥3 days weekly. There were 356 incident type 2 diabetes cases during the follow-up. Using the 'no need' category as the reference, the risk of type 2 diabetes was significantly increased only among those napping most frequently [OR 1.86 (1.29-2.67), age- and sex-adjusted]. After adjusting for other covariates, the results were essentially the same, but when adjusted for body mass index, the association decreased (to about 1.3) and was statistically non-significant. Analysis of 2011 self-reported type 2 diabetes was in line with the register data. Frequent napping is associated with future risk of type 2 diabetes. This association is largely explained by obesity. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nationwide population-based study reveals increased malignancy risk in taiwanese liver transplant recipients.

PubMed

Tsai, Yung Fong; Chen, Hsiu Pin; Liu, Fu Chao; Liu, Shih Hao; Chen, Chun Yu; Cheng, Chih Wen; Lin, Jr-Rung

2016-12-13

Post-transplant malignancy is a major cause of late mortality for liver transplant recipients (LTRs). This nationwide population-based cohort study investigated the cancer type, incidence, and risk factors associated with post-transplant malignancies in 2938 Taiwanese LTRs who underwent transplantation between 1998 and 2012. Data from the National Health Insurance Research Database were extracted on the basis of the International Classification of Disease, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification codes. Among these patients, 284 post-transplant malignancies were diagnosed. These included 99 de novo malignancies among 98 patients, yielding a standardized incidence ratio of 2.17 (95% CI, 1.76 to 2.64) compared to the general population. The most common malignancies were infection related liver cancer (19.39%), oropharyngeal cancer (19.39%), non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (9.18%), and esophageal cancer (5.10%), as well as non-infection-related prostate cancer (6.12%). Patients with recurrent malignancies had the highest mortality. Furthermore, 186 recurrent malignancies relapsed, and the commonly affected organs were the liver (83.33%), lung (4.84%), bone and bone marrow (4.30%), and intrahepatic bile ducts (2.69%). Old age, the male sex, liver cirrhosis, hepatitis B, peptic ulcer, diabetes mellitus, and pre-existing cancer were all risk factors associated with post-transplant malignancies. Recipients with biliary atresia or urea cycle metabolism disorders were protected from post-transplant malignancies. Our data revealed a significantly increased risk of malignancies in Taiwanese LTRs and suggest implementation of a careful malignancy-surveillance program and immunosuppression-minimizing strategy for high-risk patients.

Labour dystocia--risk of recurrence and instrumental delivery in following labour--a population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Sandström, A; Cnattingius, S; Wikström, A K; Stephansson, O

2012-12-01

To investigate risk of recurrence of labour dystocia and mode of delivery in second labour after taking first labour and fetal and maternal characteristics into account. A population-based cohort study. The Swedish Medical Birth Register from 1992 to 2006. A total of 239 953 women who gave birth to their first and second singleton infants in cephalic presentation at ≥ 37 weeks of gestation with spontaneous onset of labour. We used logistic regression analysis to estimate crude and adjusted odds ratios. Labour dystocia and mode of delivery in second labour. Overall labour dystocia affected only 12% of women with previous dystocia. Regardless of mode of first delivery, rates of dystocia in the second labour were higher in women with than without previous dystocia, but were more pronounced in women with previous caesarean section (34%). Analyses with risk score groups for dystocia (risk factors were long interpregnancy interval, maternal age ≥ 35 years, obesity, short maternal stature, not cohabiting and post-term pregnancy) showed that risk of instrumental delivery in second labour increased with previous dystocia and increasing risk score. Among women with trial of labour after caesarean section with previous dystocia and a risk score of 3 or more, 66% had a vaginal instrumental or caesarean delivery (17 and 49%, respectively). In women with trial of labour after caesarean section without previous dystocia and a risk score of 0, corresponding risk was 32% (14 and 18%, respectively). Previous labour dystocia increases the risk of dystocia in subsequent delivery. Taking first labour and fetal and maternal characteristics into account is important in the risk assessments for dystocia and instrumental delivery in second labour. © 2012 The Authors BJOG An International Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology © 2012 RCOG.

Native T1 reference values for nonischemic cardiomyopathies and populations with increased cardiovascular risk: A systematic review and meta‐analysis

PubMed Central

Slart, Riemer H.J.A.; Hulleman, Enzo V.; Dierckx, Rudi A.J.O.; Velthuis, Birgitta K.; van der Harst, Pim; Sosnovik, David E.; Borra, Ronald J.H.; Prakken, Niek H.J.

2017-01-01

Background Although cardiac MR and T1 mapping are increasingly used to diagnose diffuse fibrosis based cardiac diseases, studies reporting T1 values in healthy and diseased myocardium, particular in nonischemic cardiomyopathies (NICM) and populations with increased cardiovascular risk, seem contradictory. Purpose To determine the range of native myocardial T1 value ranges in patients with NICM and populations with increased cardiovascular risk. Study Type Systemic review and meta‐analysis. Population Patients with NICM, including hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) and dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM), and patients with myocarditis (MC), iron overload, amyloidosis, Fabry disease, and populations with hypertension (HT), diabetes mellitus (DM), and obesity. Field Strength/Sequence (Shortened) modified Look–Locker inversion‐recovery MR sequence at 1.5 or 3T. Assessment PubMed and Embase were searched following the PRISMA guidelines. Statistical Tests The summary of standard mean difference (SMD) between the diseased and a healthy control populations was generated using a random‐effects model in combination with meta‐regression analysis. Results The SMD for HCM, DCM, and MC patients were significantly increased (1.41, 1.48, and 1.96, respectively, P < 0.01) compared with healthy controls. The SMD for HT patients with and without left‐ventricle hypertrophy (LVH) together was significantly increased (0.19, P = 0.04), while for HT patients without LVH the SMD was zero (0.03, P = 0.52). The number of studies on amyloidosis, iron overload, Fabry disease, and HT patients with LVH did not meet the requirement to perform a meta‐analysis. However, most studies reported a significantly increased T1 for amyloidosis and HT patients with LVH and a significant decreased T1 for iron overload and Fabry disease patients. Data Conclusions Native T1 mapping by using an (Sh)MOLLI sequence can potentially assess myocardial changes in HCM, DCM, MC, iron overload, amyloidosis

Family history assessment for colorectal cancer (CRC) risk analysis - comparison of diagram- and questionnaire-based web interfaces.

PubMed

Schultz, Michael; Seo, Steven Bohwan; Holt, Alec; Regenbrecht, Holger

2015-11-18

Colorectal cancer (CRC) has a high incidence, especially in New Zealand. The reasons for this are unknown. While most cancers develop sporadically, a positive family history, determined by the number and age at diagnosis of affected first and second degree relatives with CRC is one of the major factors, which may increase an individual's lifetime risk. Before a patient can be enrolled in a surveillance program a detailed assessment and documentation of the family history is important but time consuming and often inaccurate. The documentation is usually paper-based. Our aim was therefore to develop and validate the usability and efficacy of a web-based family history assessment tool for CRC suitable for the general population. The tool was also to calculate the risk and make a recommendation for surveillance. Two versions of an electronic assessment tool, diagram-based and questionnaire-based, were developed with the risk analysis and recommendations for surveillance based on the New Zealand Guidelines Group recommendations. Accuracy of our tool was tested prior to the study by comparing risk calculations based on family history by experienced gastroenterologists with the electronic assessment. The general public, visiting a local science fair were asked to use and comment on the usability of the two interfaces. Ninety people assessed and commented on the two interfaces. Both interfaces were effective in assessing the risk to develop CRC through their familial history for CRC. However, the questionnaire-based interface performed with significantly better satisfaction (p = 0.001) than the diagram-based interface. There was no difference in efficacy though. We conclude that a web-based questionnaire tool can assist in the accurate documentation and analysis of the family history relevant to determine the individual risk of CRC based on local guidelines. The calculator is now implemented and assessable through the web-page of a local charity for colorectal cancer

Risk of Psoriasis Following Terbinafine or Itraconazole Treatment for Onychomycosis: A Population-Based Case-Control Comparative Study.

PubMed

Chiu, Hsien-Yi; Chang, Wei-Lun; Tsai, Tsen-Fang; Tsai, Yi-Wen; Shiu, Ming-Neng

2018-03-01

Several case studies have reported an association between antifungal drug use and psoriasis risk. The objective of this study was to investigate the association between terbinafine/itraconazole exposure and psoriasis incidence. Among patients with onychomycosis in the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database, 3831 incident psoriasis cases were identified during 2004-2010 and compared with 3831 age- and sex-matched controls with the same look-back period. Multivariate conditional logistic regression was used for the analysis. The psoriasis cases were significantly more likely than matched controls to have used terbinafine or itraconazole (59.85 vs. 42.70%, respectively; p < 0.0001). After adjusting for potential confounders and cumulative duration of antifungal drug prescription, terbinafine/itraconazole use was associated with an increased psoriasis risk (adjusted odds ratio 1.33, 95% confidence interval 1.15-1.54). The association was stronger for more recent drug exposure (adjusted odds ratio 2.96, 95% confidence interval 2.25-3.90 for ≤ 90 days before the sampling date; adjusted odds ratio 1.04, 95% confidence interval 0.89-1.22 for > 360 days). In a comparison of patients receiving terbinafine or itraconazole only, psoriasis risk was higher for itraconazole (adjusted odds ratio 1.21, 95% confidence interval 1.05-1.40). This large population-based case-control analysis showed that exposure to terbinafine or itraconazole is associated with an increased risk of incident psoriasis. The finding of an increased psoriasis risk for antifungal drug users, particularly for itraconazole, deserves attention in clinical practice although further prospective studies are necessary to confirm our findings and clarify the biological mechanisms that underlie these associations.

Suicide Risk Screening Tools and the Youth Population.

PubMed

Patterson, Sharon

2016-08-01

The use of suicide risk screening tools is a critical component of a comprehensive approach to suicide risk assessment. Since nurses frequently spend more time with patients than any other healthcare professional, they are in key positions to detect and prevent suicidal behavior in youth. To inform nurses about suicide risk screening tools for the youth population. Suicide risk screening tools are research-based standardized instruments that are used to identify people who may be at risk for suicide. A literature search was performed using the Athabasca University Library Resource, the databases of the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, ScienceDirect, and Google Scholar. Nurses are cautioned to utilize suicide risk screening tools as only part of the suicide risk assessment in youth populations and avoid the danger of relying on tools that may result in a blind application of evidence to the detriment of clinical experience and judgement. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

[Reliability theory based on quality risk network analysis for Chinese medicine injection].

PubMed

Li, Zheng; Kang, Li-Yuan; Fan, Xiao-Hui

2014-08-01

A new risk analysis method based upon reliability theory was introduced in this paper for the quality risk management of Chinese medicine injection manufacturing plants. The risk events including both cause and effect ones were derived in the framework as nodes with a Bayesian network analysis approach. It thus transforms the risk analysis results from failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) into a Bayesian network platform. With its structure and parameters determined, the network can be used to evaluate the system reliability quantitatively with probabilistic analytical appraoches. Using network analysis tools such as GeNie and AgenaRisk, we are able to find the nodes that are most critical to influence the system reliability. The importance of each node to the system can be quantitatively evaluated by calculating the effect of the node on the overall risk, and minimization plan can be determined accordingly to reduce their influences and improve the system reliability. Using the Shengmai injection manufacturing plant of SZYY Ltd as a user case, we analyzed the quality risk with both static FMEA analysis and dynamic Bayesian Network analysis. The potential risk factors for the quality of Shengmai injection manufacturing were identified with the network analysis platform. Quality assurance actions were further defined to reduce the risk and improve the product quality.

Association of mRNA expression of TP53 and the TP53 codon 72 Arg/Pro gene polymorphism with colorectal cancer risk in Asian population: a bioinformatics analysis and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Dong, Zhiyong; Zheng, Longzhi; Liu, Weimin; Wang, Cunchuan

2018-01-01

The relationship between TP53 codon 72 Pro/Arg gene polymorphism and colorectal cancer risk in Asians is still controversial, and this bioinformatics analysis and meta-analysis was performed to assess the associations. The association studies were identified from PubMed, and eligible reports were included. RevMan 5.3.1 software, Oncolnc, cBioPortal, and Oncomine online tools were used for statistical analysis. A random/fixed effects model was used in meta-analysis. The data were reported as risk ratios or mean differences with corresponding 95% CI. We confirmed that TP53 was associated with colorectal cancer, the alteration frequency of TP53 was 53% mutation and 7% deep deletion, and TP53 mRNA expression was different in different types of colorectal cancer based on The Cancer Genome Atlas database. Then, 18 studies were included that examine the association of TP53 codon 72 gene polymorphism with colorectal cancer risk in Asians. The meta-analysis indicated that TP53 Pro allele and Pro/Pro genotype were associated with colorectal cancer risk in Asian population, but Arg/Arg genotype was not (Pro allele: odds ratios [OR]=1.20, 95% CI: 1.06 to 1.35, P =0.003; Pro/Pro genotype: OR=1.39, 95% CI: 1.15 to 1.69, P =0.0007; Arg/Arg genotype: OR=0.86, 95% CI: 0.74 to 1.00, P =0.05). Interestingly, in the meta-analysis of the controls from the population-based studies, we found that TP53 codon 72 Pro/Arg gene polymorphism was associated with colorectal cancer risk (Pro allele: OR=1.33, 95% CI: 1.15 to 1.55, P =0.0002; Pro/Pro genotype: OR=1.61, 95% CI: 1.28 to 2.02, P <0.0001; Arg/Arg genotype: OR=0.77, 95% CI: 0.63 to 0.93, P =0.009). TP53 was associated with colorectal cancer, but the different value levels of mRNA expression were not associated with survival rate of colon and rectal cancer. TP53 Pro allele and Pro/Pro genotype were associated with colorectal cancer risk in Asians.

Association of mRNA expression of TP53 and the TP53 codon 72 Arg/Pro gene polymorphism with colorectal cancer risk in Asian population: a bioinformatics analysis and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Liu, Weimin; Wang, Cunchuan

2018-01-01

Background The relationship between TP53 codon 72 Pro/Arg gene polymorphism and colorectal cancer risk in Asians is still controversial, and this bioinformatics analysis and meta-analysis was performed to assess the associations. Methods The association studies were identified from PubMed, and eligible reports were included. RevMan 5.3.1 software, Oncolnc, cBioPortal, and Oncomine online tools were used for statistical analysis. A random/fixed effects model was used in meta-analysis. The data were reported as risk ratios or mean differences with corresponding 95% CI. Results We confirmed that TP53 was associated with colorectal cancer, the alteration frequency of TP53 was 53% mutation and 7% deep deletion, and TP53 mRNA expression was different in different types of colorectal cancer based on The Cancer Genome Atlas database. Then, 18 studies were included that examine the association of TP53 codon 72 gene polymorphism with colorectal cancer risk in Asians. The meta-analysis indicated that TP53 Pro allele and Pro/Pro genotype were associated with colorectal cancer risk in Asian population, but Arg/Arg genotype was not (Pro allele: odds ratios [OR]=1.20, 95% CI: 1.06 to 1.35, P=0.003; Pro/Pro genotype: OR=1.39, 95% CI: 1.15 to 1.69, P=0.0007; Arg/Arg genotype: OR=0.86, 95% CI: 0.74 to 1.00, P=0.05). Interestingly, in the meta-analysis of the controls from the population-based studies, we found that TP53 codon 72 Pro/Arg gene polymorphism was associated with colorectal cancer risk (Pro allele: OR=1.33, 95% CI: 1.15 to 1.55, P=0.0002; Pro/Pro genotype: OR=1.61, 95% CI: 1.28 to 2.02, P<0.0001; Arg/Arg genotype: OR=0.77, 95% CI: 0.63 to 0.93, P=0.009). Conclusion TP53 was associated with colorectal cancer, but the different value levels of mRNA expression were not associated with survival rate of colon and rectal cancer. TP53 Pro allele and Pro/Pro genotype were associated with colorectal cancer risk in Asians. PMID:29872345

Risk of community-acquired pneumonia in patients with a diagnosis of pernicious anemia: a population-based retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Almario, Christopher V; Metz, David C; Haynes, Kevin; Yang, Yu-Xiao

2015-11-01

Pernicious anemia (PA) is an autoimmune disease that causes achlorhydria or profound hypochlorhydria. We conducted a population-based study to determine whether individuals with PA are at an increased risk for community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). We performed a retrospective cohort study using The Health Improvement Network (THIN) from the UK (1993-2009). The eligible study cohort included individuals 18 years of age or older, with at least 1 year of THIN follow-up. The exposed group consisted of individuals with a diagnosis code for PA. The unexposed group consisted of individuals without a diagnosis of PA and was frequency matched with the exposed group with respect to age, sex, and practice site. Cox regression analysis was used to determine the hazard ratio with the 95% confidence interval for CAP associated with PA, accounting for a comprehensive list of potential confounders. The study included 13,605 individuals with PA and 50,586 non-PA individuals. The crude incidence rate of CAP was 9.4/1000 person-years for those with PA, versus 6.4/1000 person-years for those without PA. The multivariable adjusted hazard ratio for CAP associated with PA was 1.18 (95% confidence interval 1.08-1.29). In this large population-based cohort study, individuals with PA and presumed chronic achlorhydria were at an increased risk for CAP.

Risk of Community-Acquired Pneumonia in Patients with a Diagnosis of Pernicious Anemia: A Population-Based Retrospective Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Almario, Christopher V.; Metz, David C.; Haynes, Kevin; Yang, Yu-Xiao

2015-01-01

Objective Pernicious anemia (PA) is an autoimmune disease that causes achlorhydria or profound hypochlorhydria. We conducted a population-based study to determine whether individuals with PA are at increased risk for community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Methods We performed a retrospective cohort study using The Health Improvement Network (THIN) from the United Kingdom (1993 to 2009). The eligible study cohort included individuals 18 years of age or older and with at least 1 year of THIN follow-up. The exposed group consisted of individuals with a diagnosis code for PA. The unexposed group consisted of individuals without a diagnosis of PA and was frequency matched with the exposed group with respect to age, sex, and practice site. Cox regression analysis was used to determine the hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) for CAP associated with PA, accounting for a comprehensive list of potential confounders. Results The study included 13,605 individuals with PA and 50,586 non-PA subjects. The crude incidence rate of CAP was 9.4 per 1000 person-years for those with PA, versus 6.4 per 1000 person-years for those without PA. The multivariable adjusted HR for CAP associated with PA was 1.18, 95% CI 1.08 – 1.29. Conclusions In this large population-based cohort study, individuals with PA and presumed chronic achlorhydria were at increased risk for CAP. PMID:26225868

Association Between Educational Level and Risk of Cancer in HIV-infected Individuals and the Background Population: Population-based Cohort Study 1995-2011.

PubMed

Legarth, Rebecca; Omland, Lars H; Dalton, Susanne O; Kronborg, Gitte; Larsen, Carsten S; Pedersen, Court; Pedersen, Gitte; Gerstoft, Jan; Obel, Niels

2015-11-15

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals have increased risk of cancer. To our knowledge, no previous study has examined the impact of socioeconomic position on risk and prognosis of cancer in HIV infection. Population-based cohort-study, including HIV-infected individuals diagnosed (without intravenous drug abuse or hepatitis C infection) (n = 3205), and a background population cohort matched by age, gender, and country of birth (n = 22 435) were analyzed. Educational level (low or high) and cancer events were identified in Danish national registers. Cumulative incidences, incidence rate ratios (IRRs), and survival using Kaplan-Meier methods were estimated. Low educational level was associated with increased risk of cancer among HIV-infected individuals compared to population controls: all (adjusted-IRRs: 1.4 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.1-1.7] vs 1.1 [95% CI, .9-1.2]), tobacco- and alcohol-related (2.1 [95% CI, 1.3-3.4] vs 1.3 [95% CI, 1.1-1.6]), and other (1.7 [95% CI, 1.1-2.8] vs 0.9 [95% CI, .7-1.0]). Educational level was not associated with infection-related or ill-defined cancers. One-year-survival was not associated with educational level, but HIV-infected individuals with low educational level had lower 5-year-survival following infection-related and ill-defined cancers. Education is associated with risk and prognosis of some cancers in HIV infection, and diverges from what is observed in the background population. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

External Validation of Risk Scores for Major Bleeding in a Population-Based Cohort of Transient Ischemic Attack and Ischemic Stroke Patients.

PubMed

Hilkens, Nina A; Li, Linxin; Rothwell, Peter M; Algra, Ale; Greving, Jacoba P

2018-03-01

The S 2 TOP-BLEED score may help to identify patients at high risk of bleeding on antiplatelet drugs after a transient ischemic attack or ischemic stroke. The score was derived on trial populations, and its performance in a real-world setting is unknown. We aimed to externally validate the S 2 TOP-BLEED score for major bleeding in a population-based cohort and to compare its performance with other risk scores for bleeding. We studied risk of bleeding in 2072 patients with a transient ischemic attack or ischemic stroke on antiplatelet agents in the population-based OXVASC (Oxford Vascular Study) according to 3 scores: S 2 TOP-BLEED, REACH, and Intracranial-B 2 LEED 3 S. Performance was assessed with C statistics and calibration plots. During 8302 patient-years of follow-up, 117 patients had a major bleed. The S 2 TOP-BLEED score showed a C statistic of 0.69 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.64-0.73) and accurate calibration for 3-year risk of major bleeding. The S 2 TOP-BLEED score was much more predictive of fatal bleeding than nonmajor bleeding (C statistics 0.77; 95% CI, 0.69-0.85 and 0.50; 95% CI, 0.44-0.58). The REACH score had a C statistic of 0.63 (95% CI, 0.58-0.69) for major bleeding and the Intracranial-B 2 LEED 3 S score a C statistic of 0.60 (95% CI, 0.51-0.70) for intracranial bleeding. The ratio of ischemic events versus bleeds decreased across risk groups of bleeding from 6.6:1 in the low-risk group to 1.8:1 in the high-risk group. The S 2 TOP-BLEED score shows modest performance in a population-based cohort of patients with a transient ischemic attack or ischemic stroke. Although bleeding risks were associated with risks of ischemic events, risk stratification may still be useful to identify a subgroup of patients at particularly high risk of bleeding, in whom preventive measures are indicated. © 2018 The Authors.

Sex prevalence of major congenital anomalies in the United Kingdom: a national population-based study and international comparison meta-analysis.

PubMed

Sokal, Rachel; Tata, Laila J; Fleming, Kate M

2014-02-01

The aim of this study was to assess sex differences in major congenital anomaly (CA) diagnoses within a national population sample; to examine the influence of sociodemographic and maternal factors on these risks; and to conduct a meta-analysis using estimates from other population-based studies. We conducted a population-based study in a United Kingdom research database of prospectively collected primary care data (The Health Improvement Network) including children born 1990 to 2009 (n = 794,169) and identified major CA diagnoses using EUROCAT (European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies) classification. Prevalence ratios (PR) were used to estimate the risk of CA in males compared with females for any CA, system-specific subgroups and specific CA diagnoses. In a subpopulation of children whose medical records were linked to their mothers', we assessed the effect of adjusting for sociodemographic and maternal factors on sex odds ratios. PRs were pooled with measures from previously published studies. The prevalence of any CA was 307/10,000 in males (95% CI, 302-313) and 243/10,000 in females (95% CI, 238-248). Overall the risk of any CA was 26% greater in males (PR (male: female) 1.26, 95% CI, 1.23-1.30) however there was considerable variation across specific diagnoses. The magnitude and direction of risk did not change for any specific CA upon adjustment for sociodemographic and maternal factors. Our PRs were highly consistent with those from previous studies. The overall risk of CA is greater in males than females, although this masked substantial variation by specific diagnoses. Sociodemographic and maternal factors do not appear to affect these risks. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Birth Defects Research (Part A) published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The prevalence of crash risk factors in a population-based study of motorcycle riders.

PubMed

de Rome, Liz; Fitzharris, Michael; Baldock, Matthew; Fernandes, Ralston; Ma, Alice; Brown, Julie

2016-09-01

Motorcyclists represent an increasing proportion of road traffic casualties but, while factors associated with crashes are readily identifiable, little is known about the prevalence of those risk factors in the motorcycling population. A stratified random-sampling frame was used to survey the population of registered motorcycles owners in New South Wales (NSW) when they attended motor registry offices. The postal codes in the State database of registered motorcycle were used to stratify the population into quartiles based on socioeconomic characteristics and to determine sample weights. Participants (n=506) represented 47% of eligible riders approached. On average participants were aged 43, rode 7h/week and had 17 years of riding experience. Estimates based on multiple ownership rates suggest motorcycle registration numbers exceed the active riding population by approximately 15%. Less than half rode under 101km/week, 25% rode over 300km/week and just 42% rode every day. More rode frequently for leisure (70%) than for commuting (53%) and over half rarely rode in dark (52%) or wet (67%) conditions. Most wore protective clothing - helmets (100%), jackets (82%), pants (56%), boots (57%) and gloves (73%). Those with traffic infringements (32%) were mostly for driving (25%), not riding (10%) offences. In the past year, 13% had one or more motorcycle crashes including minor spills and 76% one or more near-crash experiences. The youngest riders (15-19) reported the highest rates of exposure in kilometres, hours, frequency of riding and commuting. They also reported lower crash involvement (3%) but more near-crashes (80%). This study provides an account of the prevalence of key risk factors across age groups in a population of active motorcycle riders in NSW. Novice riders were represented in all age groups although most novices were under 40 years. These data can be used to guide the development of targeted countermeasures aimed at improving motorcycling safety for riders

Risk factors for diagnosed intentional self-injury: a total population-based study.

PubMed

Modén, Birgit; Ohlsson, Henrik; Merlo, Juan; Rosvall, Maria

2014-04-01

Few studies investigate predictors of intentional self-injury over time in non-clinical samples. By using longitudinal data from the whole population of the county of Scania, Sweden, aged 18 years and over (N = 936 449), we aim to identify risk factors for non-fatal diagnosed intentional self-injury. Groups at risk of repeat episodes of self-injury will be identified. Information on hospital stays and outpatient specialized care visits registered as intentional self-injury was collected from the Region Skåne Healthcare database in 2007. These injuries were studied in relation to sociodemographic factors, previous disease, substance abuse and psychotropic drug treatment at baseline. There were increased odds of diagnosed intentional self-injury during follow-up in association with being single, of young or middle age, having low income and being born in the Nordic countries. Presence of neurological or psychiatric disease, substance abuse and previous assault-related injury were also strongly associated with future intentional self-injury. The use of psychotropic drugs showed a clear dose-response relationship with intentional self-injury during follow-up. Those diagnosed with self-injury in the 3-year period before baseline had more than 10 times increased odds of a new episode of intentional self-injury. The odds of repeated episodes of self-injury among subjects born in Europe, but outside Sweden, were less than half those seen for subjects born in Sweden. The present study, based on a total general population, expands the knowledge base regarding intentional self-injury in adults, repeat behaviour and its associations with sociodemographic variables, substance use and disease in both men and women.

Psychosocial risk factors associated with cyberbullying among adolescents: a population-based study.

PubMed

Sourander, Andre; Brunstein Klomek, Anat; Ikonen, Maria; Lindroos, Jarna; Luntamo, Terhi; Koskelainen, Merja; Ristkari, Terja; Helenius, Hans

2010-07-01

To our knowledge, no population study examining psychosocial and psychiatric risk factors associated with cyberbullying among adolescents exists. To study cross-sectional associations between cyberbullying and psychiatric and psychosomatic problems among adolescents. Population-based cross-sectional study. Finland. The sample consists of 2215 Finnish adolescents aged 13 to 16 years with complete information about cyberbullying and cybervictimization. Self-reports of cyberbullying and cybervictimization during the past 6 months. In the total sample, 4.8% were cybervictims only, 7.4% were cyberbullies only, and 5.4% were cyberbully-victims. Cybervictim-only status was associated with living in a family with other than 2 biological parents, perceived difficulties, emotional and peer problems, headache, recurrent abdominal pain, sleeping difficulties, and not feeling safe at school. Cyberbully-only status was associated with perceived difficulties, hyperactivity, conduct problems, low prosocial behavior, frequent smoking and drunkenness, headache, and not feeling safe at school. Cyberbully-victim status was associated with all of these risk factors. Among cybervictims, being cyberbullied by a same-sex or opposite-sex adult, by an unknown person, and by a group of people were associated with fear for safety, indicating possible trauma. Both cyberbullying and cybervictimization are associated with psychiatric and psychosomatic problems. The most troubled are those who are both cyberbullies and cybervictims. This indicates the need for new strategies for cyberbullying prevention and intervention.

Autoimmune diseases and severe infections as risk factors for schizophrenia: a 30-year population-based register study.

PubMed

Benros, Michael E; Nielsen, Philip R; Nordentoft, Merete; Eaton, William W; Dalton, Susanne O; Mortensen, Preben B

2011-12-01

Autoimmune diseases have been associated with an increased risk of schizophrenia. It has been suggested that brain-reactive autoantibodies are part of the mechanisms behind this association. Furthermore, an increased permeability of the blood-brain barrier has been observed during periods of infection and inflammation. The authors therefore investigated whether autoimmune diseases combined with exposures to severe infections may increase the risk of schizophrenia Nationwide population-based registers in Denmark were linked, and the data were analyzed in a cohort study using survival analysis. All analyses were adjusted for calendar year, age, and sex. Incidence rate ratios and accompanying 95% confidence intervals (CIs) as measures of relative risk were used. A prior autoimmune disease increased the risk of schizophrenia by 29% (incidence rate ratio=1.29; 95% CI=1.18-1.41). Any history of hospitalization with infection increased the risk of schizophrenia by 60% (incidence rate ratio=1.60; 95% CI=1.56-1.64). When the two risk factors were combined, the risk of schizophrenia was increased even further (incidence rate ratio=2.25; 95% CI=2.04-2.46). The risk of schizophrenia was increased in a dose-response relationship, where three or more infections and an autoimmune disease were associated with an incidence rate ratio of 3.40 (95% CI=2.91-3.94). The results remained significant after adjusting for substance use disorders and family history of psychiatric disorders. Hospital contact with infection occurred in nearly 24% of individuals prior to a schizophrenia diagnosis. Autoimmune disease and the number of infections requiring hospitalization are risk factors for schizophrenia. The increased risk is compatible with an immunological hypothesis in subgroups of schizophrenia patients.

Television, computer, and video viewing; physical activity; and upper limb fracture risk in children: a population-based case control study.

PubMed

Ma, Deqiong; Jones, Graeme

2003-11-01

The effect of physical activity on upper limb fractures was examined in this population-based case control study with 321 age- and gender-matched pairs. Sports participation increased fracture risk in boys and decreased risk in girls. Television viewing had a deleterious dose response association with wrist and forearm fractures while light physical activity was protective. The aim of this population-based case control study was to examine the association between television, computer, and video viewing; types and levels of physical activity; and upper limb fractures in children 9-16 years of age. A total of 321 fracture cases and 321 randomly selected individually matched controls were studied. Television, computer, and video viewing and types and levels of physical activity were determined by interview-administered questionnaire. Bone strength was assessed by DXA and metacarpal morphometry. In general, sports participation increased total upper limb fracture risk in boys and decreased risk in girls. Gender-specific risk estimates were significantly different for total, contact, noncontact, and high-risk sports participation as well as four individual sports (soccer, cricket, surfing, and swimming). In multivariate analysis, time spent television, computer, and video viewing in both sexes was positively associated with wrist and forearm fracture risk (OR 1.6/category, 95% CI: 1.1-2.2), whereas days involved in light physical activity participation decreased fracture risk (OR 0.8/category, 95% CI: 0.7-1.0). Sports participation increased hand (OR 1.5/sport, 95% CI: 1.1-2.0) and upper arm (OR 29.8/sport, 95% CI: 1.7-535) fracture risk in boys only and decreased wrist and forearm fracture risk in girls only (OR 0.5/sport, 95% CI: 0.3-0.9). Adjustment for bone density and metacarpal morphometry did not alter these associations. There is gender discordance with regard to sports participation and fracture risk in children, which may reflect different approaches to sport

Active epilepsy prevalence, the treatment gap, and treatment gap risk profile in eastern China: A population-based study.

PubMed

Ding, Xiaoyan; Zheng, Yang; Guo, Yi; Shen, Chunhong; Wang, Shan; Chen, Feng; Yan, Shengqiang; Ding, Meiping

2018-01-01

We measured the prevalence of active epilepsy and investigated the treatment gap and treatment gap risk profile in eastern China. This was a cross-sectional population-based survey conducted in Zhejiang, China, from October 2013 to March 2014. A total 54,976 people were selected using multi-stage cluster sampling. A two-stage questionnaire-based process was used to identify patients with active epilepsy and to record their demographic, socioeconomic, and epilepsy-related features. Logistic regression analysis was used to analyze risk factors of the treatment gap in eastern China, as adjusted for age and sex. We interviewed 50,035 people; 118 had active epilepsy (2.4‰), among which the treatment gap was 58.5%. In multivariate analysis, failure to receive appropriate antiepileptic treatment was associated with higher seizure frequency of 12-23 times per year (adjusted odds ratio=6.874; 95% confidence interval [CI]=2.372-19.918), >24 times per year (adjusted odds ratio=19.623; 95% CI=4.999-77.024), and a lack of health insurance (adjusted odds ratio=7.284; 95% CI=1.321-40.154). Eastern China has relatively lower prevalence of active epilepsy and smaller treatment gap. Interventions aimed at reducing seizure frequency, improving the health insurance system should be investigated as potential targets to further bridge the treatment gap. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk of Ventricular Arrhythmia with Citalopram and Escitalopram: A Population-Based Study.

PubMed

Qirjazi, Elena; McArthur, Eric; Nash, Danielle M; Dixon, Stephanie N; Weir, Matthew A; Vasudev, Akshya; Jandoc, Racquel; Gula, Lorne J; Oliver, Matthew J; Wald, Ron; Garg, Amit X

2016-01-01

The risk of ventricular arrhythmia with citalopram and escitalopram is controversial. In this study we investigated the association between these two drugs and the risk of ventricular arrhythmia. We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study of older adults (mean age 76 years) from 2002 to 2012 in Ontario, Canada, newly prescribed citalopram (n = 137 701) or escitalopram (n = 38 436), compared to those prescribed referent antidepressants sertraline or paroxetine (n = 96 620). After inverse probability of treatment weighting using a propensity score, the baseline characteristics of the comparison groups were similar. The primary outcome was a hospital encounter with ventricular arrhythmia within 90 days of a new prescription, assessed using hospital diagnostic codes. The secondary outcome was all-cause mortality within 90 days. Citalopram was associated with a higher risk of a hospital encounter with ventricular arrhythmia compared with referent antidepressants (0.06% vs. 0.04%, relative risk [RR] 1.53, 95% confidence intervals [CI]1.03 to 2.29), and a higher risk of mortality (3.49% vs. 3.12%, RR 1.12, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.18). Escitalopram was not associated with a higher risk of ventricular arrhythmia compared with the referent antidepressants (0.03% vs. 0.04%, RR 0.84, 95% CI 0.42 to 1.68), but was associated with a higher risk of mortality (2.86% vs. 2.63%, RR 1.09, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.18). Among older adults, initiation of citalopram compared to two referent antidepressants was associated with a small but statistically significant increase in the 90-day risk of a hospital encounter for ventricular arrhythmia.

Risk of Ventricular Arrhythmia with Citalopram and Escitalopram: A Population-Based Study

PubMed Central

Qirjazi, Elena; McArthur, Eric; Nash, Danielle M.; Dixon, Stephanie N.; Weir, Matthew A.; Vasudev, Akshya; Jandoc, Racquel; Gula, Lorne J.; Oliver, Matthew J.; Wald, Ron; Garg, Amit X.

2016-01-01

Background The risk of ventricular arrhythmia with citalopram and escitalopram is controversial. In this study we investigated the association between these two drugs and the risk of ventricular arrhythmia. Methods We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study of older adults (mean age 76 years) from 2002 to 2012 in Ontario, Canada, newly prescribed citalopram (n = 137 701) or escitalopram (n = 38 436), compared to those prescribed referent antidepressants sertraline or paroxetine (n = 96 620). After inverse probability of treatment weighting using a propensity score, the baseline characteristics of the comparison groups were similar. The primary outcome was a hospital encounter with ventricular arrhythmia within 90 days of a new prescription, assessed using hospital diagnostic codes. The secondary outcome was all-cause mortality within 90 days. Results Citalopram was associated with a higher risk of a hospital encounter with ventricular arrhythmia compared with referent antidepressants (0.06% vs. 0.04%, relative risk [RR] 1.53, 95% confidence intervals [CI]1.03 to 2.29), and a higher risk of mortality (3.49% vs. 3.12%, RR 1.12, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.18). Escitalopram was not associated with a higher risk of ventricular arrhythmia compared with the referent antidepressants (0.03% vs. 0.04%, RR 0.84, 95% CI 0.42 to 1.68), but was associated with a higher risk of mortality (2.86% vs. 2.63%, RR 1.09, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.18). Conclusion Among older adults, initiation of citalopram compared to two referent antidepressants was associated with a small but statistically significant increase in the 90-day risk of a hospital encounter for ventricular arrhythmia. PMID:27513855

Polycystic ovarian syndrome and the risk of subsequent primary ovarian insufficiency: a nationwide population-based study.

PubMed

Pan, Mei-Lien; Chen, Li-Ru; Tsao, Hsiao-Mei; Chen, Kuo-Hu

2017-07-01

To evaluate the risk of subsequent primary ovarian insufficiency (POI) amongst patients with a history of polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS). This nationwide, population-based study is an inspection and review of data from the 1998 to 2012 Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. In a sample of 1,000,000 randomly sampled individuals, women with PCOS (exposure group; n = 7,049) and women without PCOS (contrast group; n = 70,490) were compared. Women initially diagnosed with PCOS at less than 15 or more than 35 years of age were excluded. Each woman with PCOS was age-matched to 10 women without PCOS. The diagnoses of PCOS and POI (coded using International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification) were further confirmed with blood test results and ultrasonographic findings to ensure the accuracy of the diagnoses. POI occurred more among women with PCOS compared with women without PCOS (3.73% vs 0.44%; P < 0.001). Using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, the POI-free survival rates were significantly different between the exposure and contrast groups (P < 0.001). During 10 years of follow-up, Cox proportional-hazard analysis revealed that the risk for POI was significantly higher in the exposure than in the contrast group (hazard ratio [HR] 8.64, 95% confidence interval [CI] 7.33-10.18) and remained similar after adjustment for covariates (adjusted HR 8.31, 95% CI 7.05-9.81). Compared with that of women without PCOS, the risk of POI was even higher for women with PCOS who did not receive metformin treatment (adjusted HR 9.93, 95% CI 8.28-11.90). However, the risk for POI was significantly reduced for women with PCOS who received metformin treatment (adjusted HR 5.66, 95% CI 4.36-7.35). As a possible precursor stage, prior PCOS is a significant and independent risk factor for development of POI. The use of metformin reduces the risk of POI.

Modest familial risks for multiple sclerosis: a registry-based study of the population of Sweden

PubMed Central

Westerlind, Helga; Ramanujam, Ryan; Uvehag, Daniel; Kuja-Halkola, Ralf; Boman, Marcus; Bottai, Matteo; Lichtenstein, Paul

2014-01-01

Data on familial recurrence rates of complex diseases such as multiple sclerosis give important hints to aetiological factors such as the importance of genes and environment. By linking national registries, we sought to avoid common limitations of clinic-based studies such as low numbers, poor representation of the population and selection bias. Through the Swedish Multiple Sclerosis Registry and a nationwide hospital registry, a total of 28 396 patients with multiple sclerosis were identified. We used the national Multi-Generation Registry to identify first and second degree relatives as well as cousins, and the Swedish Twin Registry to identify twins of patients with multiple sclerosis. Crude and age corrected familial risks were estimated for cases and found to be in the same range as previously published figures. Matched population-based controls were used to calculate relative risks, revealing lower estimates of familial multiple sclerosis risks than previously reported, with a sibling recurrence risk (λs = 7.1; 95% confidence interval: 6.42–7.86). Surprisingly, despite a well-established lower prevalence of multiple sclerosis amongst males, the relative risks were equal among maternal and paternal relations. A previously reported increased risk in maternal relations could thus not be replicated. An observed higher transmission rate from fathers to sons compared with mothers to sons suggested a higher transmission to offspring from the less prevalent sex; therefore, presence of the so-called ‘Carter effect’ could not be excluded. We estimated the heritability of multiple sclerosis using 74 757 twin pairs with known zygosity, of which 315 were affected with multiple sclerosis, and added information from 2.5 million sibling pairs to increase power. The heritability was estimated to be 0.64 (0.36–0.76), whereas the shared environmental component was estimated to be 0.01 (0.00–0.18). In summary, whereas multiple sclerosis is to a great extent an

The Associations between RNA Splicing Complex Gene SF3A1 Polymorphisms and Colorectal Cancer Risk in a Chinese Population.

PubMed

Chen, Xiaohua; Du, Hua; Liu, Binjian; Zou, Li; Chen, Wei; Yang, Yang; Zhu, Ying; Gong, Yajie; Tian, Jianbo; Li, Feng; Zhong, Shan

2015-01-01

Aberrant alternative splicing included alterations in components of the mRNA splicing machinery often occurred in colon cancer. However, the role of SF3A1, one key component of the mRNA splicing machinery, on colorectal cancer (CRC) risk was still not elucidated. We performed a hospital-based case-control study containing 801 CRC patients and 817 cancer-free controls to examine the association between SF3A1 polymorphisms and CRC risk in a Chinese population. Four candidate SNPs (rs10376, rs5753073, rs2839998 and rs2074733) were selected based on bioinformatics analysis and previous findings. The results showed no significant associations between these SNPs and CRC risk (P > 0.05). Besides, the stratified analysis based on the smoking and alcohol use status obtained no statistically significant results. Our study was the first one to investigate the association between SF3A1 polymorphisms and CRC risk. The results suggested these four SNPs in SF3A1 were not associated with CRC risk in a Chinese population, however, further more studies are needed to confirm our findings.

Association of anthropometric characteristics with the risk of malignant lymphoma and plasma cell myeloma in a Japanese population: a population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Kanda, Junya; Matsuo, Keitaro; Inoue, Manami; Iwasaki, Motoki; Sawada, Norie; Shimazu, Taichi; Yamaji, Taiki; Sasazuki, Shizuka; Tsugane, Shoichiro

2010-06-01

Although Asian and Western populations differ markedly in anthropometric characteristics and the incidence of malignant lymphoma and plasma cell myeloma, few studies have evaluated the associations between these variables among Asian populations. We conducted a large-scale, population-based prospective study in a Japanese cohort that included 45,007 men and 49,540 women ages 40 to 69 years at baseline. During an average follow-up period of 13 years, 257 cases of malignant lymphoma and 88 of plasma cell myeloma were identified. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were estimated with the use of a Cox regression model adjusted for potential confounders. Compared with the 1st quartile, categorization in the 4th quartile for height showed a positive association with lymphoid neoplasm risk (HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.00-1.91), and the association was significant among men (HR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.11-2.66). A similar trend was observed for subcategories of malignant lymphoma, plasma cell myeloma, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma, albeit the associations were weak due to the small number of subjects in each category. In contrast, weight and body mass index were not associated with risk of lymphoid neoplasm. Height was positively associated with risk of lymphoid neoplasm in a Japanese population. Our data suggested that early life exposure to growth-related hormones, such as insulin-like growth factors and growth hormones, or genetic factors relating to height may affect the risk of lymphoid neoplasm. Copyright 2010 AACR.

Finding Groups Using Model-based Cluster Analysis: Heterogeneous Emotional Self-regulatory Processes and Heavy Alcohol Use Risk

PubMed Central

Mun, Eun-Young; von Eye, Alexander; Bates, Marsha E.; Vaschillo, Evgeny G.

2010-01-01

Model-based cluster analysis is a new clustering procedure to investigate population heterogeneity utilizing finite mixture multivariate normal densities. It is an inferentially based, statistically principled procedure that allows comparison of non-nested models using the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) to compare multiple models and identify the optimum number of clusters. The current study clustered 36 young men and women based on their baseline heart rate (HR) and HR variability (HRV), chronic alcohol use, and reasons for drinking. Two cluster groups were identified and labeled High Alcohol Risk and Normative groups. Compared to the Normative group, individuals in the High Alcohol Risk group had higher levels of alcohol use and more strongly endorsed disinhibition and suppression reasons for use. The High Alcohol Risk group showed significant HRV changes in response to positive and negative emotional and appetitive picture cues, compared to neutral cues. In contrast, the Normative group showed a significant HRV change only to negative cues. Findings suggest that the individuals with autonomic self-regulatory difficulties may be more susceptible to heavy alcohol use and use alcohol for emotional regulation. PMID:18331138

Risk of atrial fibrillation among bisphosphonate users: a multicenter, population-based, Italian study.

PubMed

Herrera, L; Leal, I; Lapi, F; Schuemie, M; Arcoraci, V; Cipriani, F; Sessa, E; Vaccheri, A; Piccinni, C; Staniscia, T; Vestri, A; Di Bari, M; Corrao, G; Zambon, A; Gregori, D; Carle, F; Sturkenboom, M; Mazzaglia, G; Trifiro, G

2015-05-01

Bisphosphonate treatment is used to prevent bone fractures. A controversial association of bisphosphonate use and risk of atrial fibrillation has been reported. In our study, current alendronate users were associated with a higher risk of atrial fibrillation as compared with those who had stopped bisphosphonate (BP) therapy for more than 1 year. Bisphosphonates are widely used to prevent bone fractures. Controversial findings regarding the association between bisphosphonate use and the risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) have been reported. The aim of this study was to evaluate the risk of AF in association with BP exposure. We performed a nested case-control study using the databases of drug-dispensing and hospital discharge diagnoses from five Italian regions. The data cover a period ranging from July 1, 2003 to December 31, 2006. The study population comprised new users of bisphosphonates aged 55 years and older. Patients were followed from the first BP prescription until an occurrence of an AF diagnosis (index date, i.e., ID), cancer, death, or the end of the study period, whichever came first. For the risk estimation, any AF case was matched by age and sex to up to 10 controls from the same source population. A conditional logistic regression was performed to obtain the odds ratio with 95% confidence intervals (CI). The BP exposure was classified into current (<90 days prior to ID), recent (91-180), past (181-364), and distant past (≥365) use, with the latter category being used as a reference point. A subgroup analysis by individual BP was then carried out. In comparison with distant past users of BP, current users of BP showed an almost twofold increased risk of AF: odds ratio (OR) = 1.78 and 95% CI = 1.46-2.16. Specifically, alendronate users were mostly associated with AF as compared with distant past use of BP (OR, 1.97; 95% CI, 1.59-2.43). In our nested case-control study, current users of BP are associated with a higher risk of atrial

Fibromyalgia: epidemiology and risk factors, a population-based case-control study in Lebanon.

PubMed

Moukaddem, Afaf; Chaaya, Monique; Slim, Zeinab F N; Jaffa, Miran; Sibai, Abla Mehio; Uthman, Imad

2017-02-01

To investigate the epidemiology of fibromyalgia (FM) and assess its risk factors. Using data from the 2009 Community Oriented Program for Control of Rheumatic Diseases (COPCORD) study conducted in Lebanon, a population-based case control study was performed. The sample included 34 FM patients, frequency matched with 136 controls free from any musculoskeletal complaints and randomly sampled from the population. The controls were frequency matched with cases by age and gender. The 34 female FM cases were prevalent cases which existed for a long period of time and all those who consulted a doctor were previously misdiagnosed. Family history of joint problems (OR = 4.93, 95% CI: 1.56-15.58) and working status (OR = 2.69, 95% CI: 1.04-6.93) were significant risk factors for FM, after adjusting for body mass index, distress level, smoking status and residence location. This was the first study to address the epidemiology of FM in Lebanon and the region. The chronic nature of FM that is characterized by frequent bouts of intense disabling pain and symptoms constitutes a significant health and economic burden. Clustering of cases in coastal areas was partially explained by other factors such as body mass index, distress level, smoking and work status. The high burden of FM found in our study calls for further investigation of potential risk factors of this condition. © 2015 Asia Pacific League of Associations for Rheumatology and Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Postmenopausal hormone therapy and risk of stroke: A pooled analysis of data from population-based cohort studies

PubMed Central

Carrasquilla, Germán D.; Frumento, Paolo; Berglund, Anita; Borgfeldt, Christer; Bottai, Matteo; Chiavenna, Chiara; Eliasson, Mats; Engström, Gunnar; Hallmans, Göran; Jansson, Jan-Håkan; Nilsson, Peter M.; Pedersen, Nancy L.

2017-01-01

Background Recent research indicates a favourable influence of postmenopausal hormone therapy (HT) if initiated early, but not late, on subclinical atherosclerosis. However, the clinical relevance of timing of HT initiation for hard end points such as stroke remains to be determined. Further, no previous research has considered the timing of initiation of HT in relation to haemorrhagic stroke risk. The importance of the route of administration, type, active ingredient, and duration of HT for stroke risk is also unclear. We aimed to assess the association between HT and risk of stroke, considering the timing of initiation, route of administration, type, active ingredient, and duration of HT. Methods and findings Data on HT use reported by the participants in 5 population-based Swedish cohort studies, with baseline investigations performed during the period 1987–2002, were combined in this observational study. In total, 88,914 postmenopausal women who reported data on HT use and had no previous cardiovascular disease diagnosis were included. Incident events of stroke (ischaemic, haemorrhagic, or unspecified) and haemorrhagic stroke were identified from national population registers. Laplace regression was employed to assess crude and multivariable-adjusted associations between HT and stroke risk by estimating percentile differences (PDs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The fifth and first PDs were calculated for stroke and haemorrhagic stroke, respectively. Crude models were adjusted for age at baseline only. The final adjusted models included age at baseline, level of education, smoking status, body mass index, level of physical activity, and age at menopause onset. Additional variables evaluated for potential confounding were type of menopause, parity, use of oral contraceptives, alcohol consumption, hypertension, dyslipidaemia, diabetes, family history of cardiovascular disease, and cohort. During a median follow-up of 14.3 years, 6,371 first-time stroke

Association between nasopharyngeal carcinoma and risk of optic neuropathy: A population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Fan, Chao-Yueh; Jen, Yee-Min; Su, Yuan-Chih; Chao, Hsing-Lung; Lin, Chun-Shu; Huang, Wen-Yen; Lin, Miao-Jung; Kao, Chia-Hung

2018-04-16

The purpose of this study was to assess the predictive factors of optic neuropathy among patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). The analysis included 16 297 patients with NPC and 65 187 controls. Each patient with NPC was randomly frequency-matched with 4 individuals without NPC by age, sex, and index year. Cox proportional hazard models were applied to measure the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of optic neuropathy development associated with NPC. The risk of optic neuropathy was significantly higher in the NPC cohort (adjusted HR [aHR] 3.42; 95% CI 2.85-4.09; P < .001). Independent risk factors for optic neuropathy among patients with NPC included stroke (aHR 1.7; 95% CI 1.07-2.7; P = .03) and receipt of chemotherapy (aHR 1.55; 95% CI 1.17-2.06; P = .002). The risk of optic neuropathy was significantly higher in patients with NPC than in the general population. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A population-based national estimate of the prevalence and risk factors associated with hypertension in Rwanda: implications for prevention and control.

PubMed

Nahimana, Marie-Rosette; Nyandwi, Alypio; Muhimpundu, Marie Aimee; Olu, Olushayo; Condo, Jeanine Umutesi; Rusanganwa, Andre; Koama, Jean Baptiste; Ngoc, Candide Tran; Gasherebuka, Jean Bosco; Ota, Martin O; Okeibunor, Joseph C

2017-07-10

Hypertension is a leading cause of cardiovascular diseases and a growing public health problem in many developed and developing countries. However, population-based data to inform policy development are scarce in Rwanda. This nationally representative study aimed to determine population-based estimates of the prevalence and risk factors associated with hypertension in Rwanda. We conducted secondary epidemiological analysis of data collected from a cross-sectional population-based study to assess the risk factors for NCDs using the WHO STEPwise approach to Surveillance of non-communicable diseases (STEPS). Adjusted odds ratios at 95% confidence interval were used to establish association between hypertension, socio-demographic characteristics and health risk behaviors. Of the 7116 study participants, 62.8% were females and 38.2% were males. The mean age of study participants was 35.3 years (SD 12.5). The overall prevalence of hypertension was 15.3% (16.4% for males and 14.4% for females). Twenty two percent of hypertensive participants were previously diagnosed. A logistic regression model revealed that age (AOR: 8.02, 95% CI: 5.63-11.42, p < 0.001), living in semi-urban area (AOR: 1.30, 95% CI: 1.01-1.67, p = 0.040) alcohol consumption (AOR: 1.24, 95% CI: 1.05-1.44, p = 0.009) and, raised BMI (AOR: 3.93, 95% CI: 2.54-6.08, p < 0.001) were significantly associated with hypertension. The risk of having hypertension was 2 times higher among obese respondents (AOR: 3.93, 95% CI: 2.54-6.08, p-value < 0.001) compared to those with normal BMI (AOR: 1.74, 95% CI: 1.30-2.32, p-value < 0.001). Females (AOR: 0.75, 95% CI: 0.63-0.88, p < 0.001) and students (AOR: 0.45, 95% CI: 0.25-0.80, p = 0.007) were less likely to be hypertensive. The findings of this study indicate that the prevalence of hypertension is high in Rwanda, suggesting the need for prevention and control interventions aimed at decreasing the incidence taking into consideration the risk factors

Variables associated with olfactory disorders in adults: A U.S. population-based analysis.

PubMed

Noel, Julia; Habib, Al-Rahim R; Thamboo, Andrew; Patel, Zara M

2017-03-01

Olfactory dysfunction is known to have significant social, psychological, and safety implications. Despite increasingly recognized prevalence, potential risk factors for olfactory loss have been arbitrarily documented and knowledge is limited in scale. The aim of this study is to identify potential demographic and exposure variables correlating with olfactory dysfunction. Cross-sectional analysis of the 2011-2012 and 2013-2014 editions of the National Health Examination and Nutrition Survey was performed. The utilized survey reports from a nationally representative sample of about 5000 persons each year located in counties across the United States. There is an interview and physical examination component which includes demographic, socioeconomic, dietary, and health-related questions as well as medical, dental, physiologic measurements, and laboratory tests. 3594 adult respondents from 2011 to 2012 and 3708 respondents from 2013 to 2014 were identified from the above population-based database. The frequency of self-reported disorders as well as performance on odor identification testing was determined in relation to demographic factors, occupational or environmental exposures, and urinary levels of environmental and industrial compounds. In both subjective and objective analysis, smell disorders were significantly more common with increasing age. While the non-Hispanic Black and non-Hispanic Asian populations were less likely to report subjective olfactory loss, they, along with Hispanics, performed more poorly on odor identification than Caucasians. Those with limited education had a decreased prevalence of hyposmia. Women outperformed men on smell testing. Those reporting exposure to vapors were more likely to experience olfactory dysfunction, and urinary levels of manganese, 2-Thioxothiazolidine-4-carboxylic acid, and 2-Aminothiazoline-4-carboxylic acid were lower among respondents with subjective smell disturbance. In odor detection, elevated serum levels of

Risks of road injuries in patients with bipolar disorder and associations with drug treatments: A population-based matched cohort study.

PubMed

Chen, Vincent Chin-Hung; Yang, Yao-Hsu; Lee, Chuan-Pin; Wong, Jennifer; Ponton, Lynn; Lee, Yena; McIntyre, Roger S; Huang, Kuo-You; Wu, Shu-I

2018-01-15

Using a nation-wide, population-based dataset, we aimed to investigate the risk of road injury among individuals with bipolar disorder (BD) compared to individuals without BD. In addition, we investigated the putative moderating effects of prescription for lithium, anticonvulsants, antidepressants, and/or first- or second-generation antipsychotic agents on the association between BD and risk of road injury. As part of an16-year longitudinal cohort study, we compared the risk of road injuries among study subjects aged 16 and above with a diagnosis of BD, with ten age- and sex-matched sample of individuals without BD. Individuals were compared on measures of incidence on road injuries using medical claims data based on the ICD-9-CM codes: E800~807, E810~817, E819~830, E840~848. Time dependent Cox regression models were used to adjust for time-varying covariates such as age, and medication uses. Hazard ratios before and after adjusting for age, sex, other comorbidities, and drug use were calculated. 3953 people with BD were matched with 39,530 controls from general population. Adjusted hazard ratios revealed a 1.66-fold (95% CI 1.40-1.97) increase in risk of road injuries among bipolar subjects when compared to controls. Female gender, older age (i.e. over 80), residence in areas of highest levels of urbanization, and use of antidepressants were associated with a lower risk of road injuries. In this large, national, population-based cohort, BD was associated with an elevated risk of road injuries. However, prescriptions of antidepressants might help mitigate the foregoing risk. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

HIV decline associated with changes in risk behaviours among young key populations in Nepal: analysis of population-based HIV prevalence surveys between 2001 and 2012.

PubMed

Deuba, Keshab; Ekström, Anna Mia; Tomson, Göran; Shrestha, Rachana; Marrone, Gaetano

2017-08-01

We assessed changes in HIV prevalence and risk behaviours among young key populations in Nepal. A total of 7505 participants (aged 16-24 years) from key populations who were at increased risk of HIV infection (2767 people who inject drugs (PWID); 852 men who have sex with men/transgender (MSM/TG); 2851 female sex workers (FSW) and 1035 male labour migrants) were recruited randomly over a 12-year period, 2001-2012. Local epidemic zones of Nepal (Kathmandu valley, Pokhara valley, Terai Highway and West to Far West hills) were analysed separately. We found a very strong and consistent decline in HIV prevalence over the past decade in different epidemic zones among PWID and MSM/TG in Kathmandu, the capital city, most likely due to a parallel increase in safe needle and syringe use and increased condom use. A decrease in HIV prevalence in 22 Terai highway districts, sharing an open border with India, was also consistent with increased condom use among FSW. Among male labour migrants, HIV prevalence was low throughout the period in the West to Far West hilly regions. Condom use by migrant workers involved with FSW abroad increased while their condom use with Nepalese FSW declined. Other risk determinants such as mean age at starting first injection, injection frequency, place of commercial sex solicitation, their mean age when leaving to work abroad did not change consistently across epidemic zones among the young key populations under study. In Nepal, the decline in HIV prevalence over the past decade was remarkably significant and consistent with an increase in condom use and safer use of clean needles and syringes. However, diverging trends in risk behaviours across local epidemic zones of Nepal suggest a varying degree of implementation of national HIV prevention policies. This calls for continued preventive efforts as well as surveillance to sustain the observed downward trend.

Urinary incontinence, fecal incontinence and pelvic organ prolapse in a population-based, racially diverse cohort. Prevalence and risk factors

PubMed Central

RORTVEIT, Guri; SUBAK, Leslee L.; THOM, David H.; CREASMAN, Jennifer M.; VITTINGHOFF, Eric; VAN DEN EEDEN, Stephen K.; BROWN, Jeanette S.

2016-01-01

Objectives We investigated the prevalence of and risk factors for combinations of urinary incontinence (UI), fecal incontinence (FI) and pelvic organ prolapse (POP) in racially diverse women over age 40. Methods The Reproductive Risks for Incontinence Study at Kaiser (RRISK) is a population-based study with data from 2106 women > 40 years. Pelvic floor conditions were determined by self-report. Risk factors were assessed by self-report, interview and record review. Independent risk factors were identified by multinomial logistic regression analysis. Results At least one pelvic floor condition was reported by 714 (34%) women. Of these, 494 (69%) had UI only, 60 (8%) POP only, and 46 (6%) had FI only. Both UI and FI were reported by 64 (9%), both UI and POP by 51 (7%). Among women with FI, 60% reported more than one condition. Corresponding figures for POP and UI were 49% and 18%. Estrogen use and constipation were shared risk factors for UI, FI and POP. BMI was a unique risk factor for UI only, diabetes for FI only and parity for POP only. No clear pattern could be found to support the hypothesis that risk factors for single conditions are more strongly associated with combined conditions. Conclusions Patients with FI or POP often have concomitant UI. These diseases both share and have unique risk factors in a complex pattern. PMID:22453506

Fruit and vegetable intake and the risk of overall cancer in Japanese: A pooled analysis of population-based cohort studies.

PubMed

Takachi, Ribeka; Inoue, Manami; Sugawara, Yumi; Tsuji, Ichiro; Tsugane, Shoichiro; Ito, Hidemi; Matsuo, Keitaro; Tanaka, Keitaro; Tamakoshi, Akiko; Mizoue, Tetsuya; Wakai, Kenji; Nagata, Chisato; Sasazuki, Shizuka

2017-04-01

A series of recent reports from large-scale cohort studies involving more than 100,000 subjects reported no or only very small inverse associations between fruit and vegetable intake and overall cancer incidence, despite having sufficient power to do so. To date, however, no such data have been reported for Asian populations. To provide some indication of the net impact of fruit and vegetable consumption on overall cancer prevention, we examined these associations in a pooled analysis of large-scale cohort studies in Japanese populations. We analyzed original data from four cohort studies that measured fruit and vegetable consumption using validated questionnaires at baseline. Hazard ratios (HRs) in the individual studies were calculated, with adjustment for a common set of variables, and combined using a random-effects model. During 2,318,927 person-years of follow-up for a total of 191,519 subjects, 17,681 cases of overall cancers were identified. Consumption of fruit or vegetables was not associated with decreased risk of overall cancers: corresponding HRs for the highest versus lowest quartiles of intake for men and women were 1.03 (95% CI, 0.97-1.10; trend p = 1.00) and 1.03 (95% CI, 0.95-1.11; trend p = 0.97), respectively, for fruit and 1.07 (95% CI, 1.01-1.14; trend p = 0.18) and 0.98 (95% CI, 0.91-1.06; trend p = 0.99), respectively, for vegetables, even in analyses stratified by smoking status and alcohol drinking. The results of this pooled analysis do not support inverse associations of fruit and vegetable consumption with overall cancers in the Japanese population. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk factors for chronic periodontitis in Sri Lankan adults: a population based case-control study.

PubMed

Wellapuli, Nimali; Ekanayake, Lilani

2017-09-07

To determine risk factors for chronic periodontitis in 30-60 year olds in Sri Lanka. Cases and controls for this population based unmatched case-control study were identified from a broader cross-sectional study which was conducted to determine the prevalence of chronic periodontitis in 30-60 year old adults in Colombo district Sri Lanka. The study included 694 cases and 706 controls. Data were collected by means of a pre-tested interviewer administered questionnaire to obtain information about socio-demographic and behavioural factors, a physical examination to record anthropometric measurements and an oral examination. Being a male, a Muslim, belonging to the 45-60 year old age group, having less than 12 years of education, using the finger to clean teeth, current smoking, current betel quid chewing, self-reported diabetes and hypertension emerged as risk factors for chronic periodontitis. Several socio-demographic and behavioural factors as well as co-morbid conditions emerged as independent risk factors for chronic periodontits in this population. The findings could be used for planning programmes to reduce the burden of chronic periodontits in Colombo district Sri Lanka.

High-risk population health management--achieving improved patient outcomes and near-term financial results.

PubMed

Lynch, J P; Forman, S A; Graff, S; Gunby, M C

2000-07-01

A managed care organization sought to achieve efficiencies in care delivery and cost savings by anticipating and better caring for its frail and least stable members. Time sequence case study of program intervention across an entire managed care population in its first year compared with the prior baseline year. Key attributes of the intervention included predictive registries of at-risk members based on existing data, relentless focus on the high-risk group, an integrated clinical and psychosocial approach to assessments and are planning, a reengineered care management process, secured Internet applications enabling rapid implementation and broad connectivity, and population-based outcomes metrics derived from widely used measures of resource utilization and functional status. Concentrating on the highest-risk group, which averaged just 1.1% prevalence in the total membership, yielded bottom line results. When the year before program implementation (July 1997 through June 1998) was compared with the subsequent year, the total population's annualized commercial admission rate was reduced 5.3%, and seniors' was reduced 3.0%. A claims-paid analysis exclusively of the highest-risk group revealed that their efficiencies and savings overwhelmingly contributed to the membershipwide effect. This subgroup's costs dropped 35.7% from preprogram levels of $2590 per member per month (excluding pharmaceuticals). During the same time, patient-derived cross-sectional functional status rose 12.5%. A sharply focused, Internet-deployed case management strategy achieved economic and functional status results on a population basis and produced systemwide savings in its first year of implementation.

Human health risk assessment with spatial analysis: study of a population chronically exposed to arsenic through drinking water from Argentina.

PubMed

Navoni, J A; De Pietri, D; Olmos, V; Gimenez, C; Bovi Mitre, G; de Titto, E; Villaamil Lepori, E C

2014-11-15

Arsenic (As) is a ubiquitous element widely distributed in the environment. This metalloid has proven carcinogenic action in man. The aim of this work was to assess the health risk related to As exposure through drinking water in an Argentinean population, applying spatial analytical techniques in addition to conventional approaches. The study involved 650 inhabitants from Chaco and Santiago del Estero provinces. Arsenic in drinking water (Asw) and urine (UAs) was measured by hydride generation atomic absorption spectrophotometry. Average daily dose (ADD), hazard quotient (HQ), and carcinogenic risk (CR) were estimated, geo-referenced and integrated with demographical data by a health composite index (HI) applying geographic information system (GIS) analysis. Asw covered a wide range of concentration: from non-detectable (ND) to 2000 μg/L. More than 90% of the population was exposed to As, with UAs levels above the intervention level of 100 μg/g creatinine. GIS analysis described an expected level of exposure lower than the observed, indicating possible additional source/s of exposure to inorganic arsenic. In 68% of the locations, the population had a HQ greater than 1, and the CR ranged between 5·10(-5) and 2,1·10(-2). An environmental exposure area through ADD geo-referencing defined a baseline scenario for space-time risk assessment. The time of residence, the demographic density and the potential health considered outcomes helped characterize the health risk in the region. The geospatial analysis contributed to delimitate and analyze the change tendencies of risk in the region, broadening the scopes of the results for a decision-making process. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Use of incretin agents and risk of acute and chronic pancreatitis: A population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Knapen, Lotte M; de Jong, Roy G P J; Driessen, Johanna H M; Keulemans, Yolande C; van Erp, Nielka P; De Bruin, Marie L; Leufkens, Hubert G M; Croes, Sander; de Vries, Frank

2017-03-01

To determine the association between the use of incretin agents (dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists) for the treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and the risk of any, acute and chronic pancreatitis. A population-based cohort study was conducted using data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD 2007-2012). A total of 182 428 adult patients with ≥1 non-insulin antidiabetic drug (NIAD) prescription were matched to control subjects without diabetes. Cox regression was used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of pancreatitis in incretin-users (N = 28 370) compared with controls and with other NIAD users. Adjustments were made for lifestyle, disease and drug history. In a sensitivity analysis, a new-user design was used. Current incretin users had a 1.5-fold increased risk of any pancreatitis compared with NIAD users (adjusted HR 1.47, 95% CI 1.06-2.04). In incident current incretin users the risk of any and acute pancreatitis was increased 2.1- and 2.0-fold compared with NIAD users (adjusted HR 2.12, 95% CI 1.31-3.43 and adjusted HR 1.96, 95% CI 1.13-3.41), whereas there was no increased risk found for chronic pancreatitis. Incretin use was associated with an increased risk of any pancreatitis. Moreover, risk of any and acute pancreatitis was higher when applying a new-user design. We were not able to detect an association with chronic pancreatitis, but the number in this subgroup was small. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Mood disorder, anxiety, and suicide risk among subjects with alcohol abuse and/or dependence: a population-based study.

PubMed

Wiener, Carolina D; Moreira, Fernanda P; Zago, Alethea; Souza, Luciano M; Branco, Jeronimo C; Oliveira, Jacqueline F de; Silva, Ricardo A da; Portela, Luis V; Lara, Diogo R; Jansen, Karen; Oses, Jean P

2018-01-01

To evaluate the prevalence of alcohol abuse and/or dependence in a population-based sample of young adults and assess the prevalence of comorbid mood disorders, anxiety, and suicide risk in this population. This cross-sectional, population-based study enrolled 1,953 young adults aged 18-35 years. The CAGE questionnaire was used to screen for alcohol abuse and/or dependence, with CAGE scores ≥ 2 considered positive. Psychiatric disorders were investigated through the structured Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI). Alcohol abuse and/or dependence was identified in 187 (9.60%) individuals (5.10% among women and 15.20% among men). Alcohol abuse and/or dependence were more prevalent among men than women, as well as among those who used tobacco, illicit drugs or presented with anxiety disorder, mood disorder, and suicide risk. These findings suggest that alcohol abuse and/or dependence are consistently associated with a higher prevalence of psychiatric comorbidities, could be considered important predictors of other psychiatric disorders, and deserve greater public heath attention, pointing to the need for alcohol abuse prevention programs.

Statin adherence and the risk of Parkinson's disease: A population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Rozani, Violetta; Giladi, Nir; El-Ad, Baruch; Gurevich, Tanya; Tsamir, Judith; Hemo, Beatriz; Peretz, Chava

2017-01-01

While experimental data provided some compelling evidence on the benefits of statins on dopaminergic neurons, observational studies reported conflicting results regarding the potential of statins to effect the risk of Parkinson's disease (PD). To evaluate the association between changes in statin adherence over time and PD risk. A population-based cohort of new statin users (ages 40-79, years 1999-2012) was derived from a large Israeli healthcare services organization. Data included history of statin purchases and low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels. Personal statin adherence was measured annually by the proportion of days covered (PDC). PD was detected employing a drug-tracer approach. Stratified (by sex, LDL-C levels at baseline and age) Cox proportional hazards models with time-dependent covariates were used to compute adjusted Hazard Ratio (HR) with 95%CI. The cohort included 232,877 individuals, 49.3% men. Mean age at first statin purchase was 56.5 (±9.8) years for men and 58.7 (±9.2) years for women. PDC distribution for the whole follow up period differed between men and women: medians 58.3% and 54.1% respectively. During a mean follow up of 7.6 (±3.4) years, 2,550 (1.1%) PD cases were identified. In a 1-year lagged analysis, we found no association between annual statin adherence and PD risk in all age-groups regardless of statin type and potency. Age-pooled HR (95%CI) for men and women with LDL-C levels at baseline ≤160mg/dL were: 0.99 (0.99-1.01), 1.01 (1.00-1.02); and for men and women with LDL-C >160mg/dL levels: 0.99 (0.98-1.01), 0.97 (0.98-1.01). Our findings suggest that statin adherence over time does not affect PD risk. Future studies should use large-scale cohorts and refining assessments of long-term profiles in statin adherence.

Change in social status and risk of low birth weight in Denmark: population based cohort study.

PubMed Central

Basso, O.; Olsen, J.; Johansen, A. M.; Christensen, K.

1997-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the risk of having a low birthweight infant associated with changes in social, environmental, and genetic factors. DESIGN: Population based, historical cohort study using the Danish medical birth registry and Statistic Denmark's fertility database. SUBJECTS: All women who had a low birthweight infant (< 2500 g) (index birth) and a subsequent liveborn infant (outcome birth) in Denmark between 1980 and 1992 (exposed cohort, n = 11,069) and a random sample of the population who gave birth to an infant weighing > or = 2500 g and to a subsequent liveborn infant (unexposed cohort, n = 10,211). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Risk of having a low birthweight infant in the outcome birth as a function of changes in male partner, area of residence, type of job, and social status between the two births. RESULTS: Women in the exposed cohort showed a high risk (18.5%) of having a subsequent low birthweight infant while women in the unexposed cohort had a risk of 2.8%. After adjustment for initial social status, a decline in social status increased the absolute risk of having a low birthweight infant by about 5% in both cohorts, though this was significant only in the unexposed cohort. Change of male partner did not modify the risk of low birth weight in either cohort. CONCLUSION: Having had a low birthweight infant and a decline in social status are strong risk factors for having a low birthweight infant subsequently. PMID:9420490

Cauda equina syndrome: an analysis of incidence rates and risk factors among a closed North American military population.

PubMed

Schoenfeld, Andrew J; Bader, Julia O

2012-09-01

This investigation attempted to determine the incidence of cauda equine syndrome (CES) within a closed North American population from 2001 to 2010. This study also aimed to define risk factors influential in its development. A search was performed using the Defense Medical Epidemiology Database and the ICD-9 code for CES (344.6). Demographic information including sex, race, military rank, branch of service, and age was obtained for the entire military population, as well as those diagnosed with CES. Incidence rates were calculated for the population as a whole, as well as for risk factors of interest. Multivariate Poisson regression analysis was utilized to identify significant risks while controlling for other factors in the model. Between 2001 and 2010, the incidence of CES in the military was 7 per 100,000 person-years. Female sex was found to have the highest incidence rate at 0.15 per 1000 person-years. Female sex, whites, individuals classified as other race, senior military rank, and age 30 and older were found to be significant risks for the development of CES. The results are in keeping with the findings of previous works, however, our cohort represents the largest number of patients with CES to be presented in the literature. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Environmental Risk to Health of the Population

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anopchenko, Tatiana Y.; Murzin, Anton D.; Kandrashina, Elena A.; Kosyakova, Inessa V.; Surnina, Olga E.

2016-01-01

Researches of the last years in the field of ecological epidemiology and the analysis of risk for health allow to claim with confidence that the polluted environment is one of the important factors defining changes of a state of health of the population. Expert opinions on the scale of this influence differ considerably now. These estimations vary…

Framingham risk score for prediction of cardiovascular diseases: a population-based study from southern Europe.

PubMed

Artigao-Rodenas, Luis M; Carbayo-Herencia, Julio A; Divisón-Garrote, Juan A; Gil-Guillén, Vicente F; Massó-Orozco, Javier; Simarro-Rueda, Marta; Molina-Escribano, Francisca; Sanchis, Carlos; Carrión-Valero, Lucinio; López de Coca, Enrique; Caldevilla, David; López-Abril, Juan; Carratalá-Munuera, Concepción; Lopez-Pineda, Adriana

2013-01-01

The question about what risk function should be used in primary prevention remains unanswered. The Framingham Study proposed a new algorithm based on three key ideas: use of the four risk factors with the most weight (cholesterol, blood pressure, diabetes and smoking), prediction of overall cardiovascular diseases and incorporating the concept of vascular age. The objective of this study was to apply this new function in a cohort of the general non Anglo-Saxon population, with a 10-year follow-up to determine its validity. The cohort was studied in 1992-94 and again in 2004-06. The sample comprised 959 randomly-selected persons, aged 30-74 years, who were representative of the population of Albacete, Spain. At the first examination cycle, needed data for the new function were collected and at the second examination, data on all events were recorded during the follow-up period. Discrimination was studied with ROC curves. Comparisons of prediction models and reality in tertiles (Hosmer-Lemeshow) were performed, and the individual survival functions were calculated. The mean risks for women and men, respectively, were 11.3% and 19.7% and the areas under the ROC curve were 0.789 (95%CI, 0.716-0.863) and 0.780 (95%CI, 0.713-0.847) (P<0.001, both). Cardiovascular disease events occurred in the top risk tertiles. Of note were the negative predictive values in both sexes, and a good specificity in women (85.6%) and sensitivity in men (79.1%) when their risk for cardiovascular disease was high. This model overestimates the risk in older women and in middle-aged men. The cumulative probability of individual survival by tertiles was significant in both sexes (P<0.001). The results support the proposal for "reclassification" of Framingham. This study, with a few exceptions, passed the test of discrimination and calibration in a random sample of the general population from southern Europe.

Influence of diabetes on the risk of urothelial cancer according to body mass index: a 10-year nationwide population-based observational study.

PubMed

Bae, Woong Jin; Choi, Jin Bong; Moon, Hyong Woo; Park, Young Hyun; Cho, Hyuk Jin; Hong, Sung-Hoo; Lee, Ji Youl; Kim, Sae Woong; Han, Kyung-Do; Ha, U-Syn

2018-01-01

To examine the association between obesity and urothelial cancer, we used a representative data from the National Health Insurance System (NHIS). Participants included 826,170 men aged 20 years and older who experienced a health examination at least one time between 2004 and 2008. The study thus excluded people aged <20 years and women. We used a multivariate adjusted Cox regression analysis to examine the association between urothelial cancer and body mass index (BMI) via a hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). The age- or multivariable-adjusted HR for urothelial cancer was stratified by BMI. Men with a higher BMI were more likely to acquire urothelial cancer independent of variables. In the population with diabetes, there showed a considerable, increasing trend in the risk of urothelial cancer in the overweight and obesity group, compared to the group with the same BMI but without diabetes. This population-based study showed evidence of an association between obesity and the development of urothelial cancer, where the presence of diabetes increased the risk of urothelial cancer. Additionally, the higher the BMI, the higher the risk for urothelial cancer.

Is Educational Attainment Associated with Increased Risk of Mortality in People with Dementia? A Population-based Study.

PubMed

Contador, Israel; Stern, Yaakov; Bermejo-Pareja, Felix; Sanchez-Ferro, Alvaro; Benito-Leon, Julian

2017-01-01

The association between higher education and increased mortality in Alzheimer's disease (AD) is controversial. Further it is unknown whether education predicts survival in all dementia subtypes. We assessed mortality rates and death causes of persons with dementia compared to participants without dementia. Participants derive from the Neurological Disorders in Central Spain, a prospective population- based cohort study of older adults. We compared 269 persons with dementia to 2944 participants without dementia. We carried out Cox regression models to predict the risk of mortality dependent on the educational attainment adjusting for covariates. Reasons of death were obtained from the National Population Register. During a median follow-up of 5.4 years, 400 individuals died (171 with dementia, 229 without dementia). Among the participants with dementia, those with higher educational attainment had an increased risk of death than those with lower education; the adjusted hazard ratio (HRa) was 1.40 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01 to 1.94). When the analysis was restricted to patients with AD the HRa increased to 1.51 (95% CI = 1.01-2.24). By contrast, educational attainment was not associated with increased mortality among participants without dementia (HRa = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.71-1.20, p = 0.55), whereas education did not influence mortality in QD. Our findings suggest that high educational attainment is associated with increased mortality risk in people with dementia. This observation implies that neuropathology is more advanced in patients with higher education at any level of clinical severity, leading these individuals to an earlier death after diagnosis. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

Driver sleepiness and risk of serious injury to car occupants: population based case control study

PubMed Central

Connor, Jennie; Norton, Robyn; Ameratunga, Shanthi; Robinson, Elizabeth; Civil, Ian; Dunn, Roger; Bailey, John; Jackson, Rod

2002-01-01

Objectives To estimate the contribution of driver sleepiness to the causes of car crash injuries. Design Population based case control study. Setting Auckland region of New Zealand, April 1998 to July 1999. Participants 571 car drivers involved in crashes where at least one occupant was admitted to hospital or killed (“injury crash”); 588 car drivers recruited while driving on public roads (controls), representative of all time spent driving in the study region during the study period. Main outcome measures Relative risk for injury crash associated with driver characteristics related to sleep, and the population attributable risk for driver sleepiness. Results There was a strong association between measures of acute sleepiness and the risk of an injury crash. After adjustment for major confounders significantly increased risk was associated with drivers who identified themselves as sleepy (Stanford sleepiness score 4-7 v 1-3; odds ratio 8.2, 95% confidence interval 3.4 to 19.7); with drivers who reported five hours or less of sleep in the previous 24 hours compared with more than five hours (2.7, 1.4 to 5.4); and with driving between 2 am and 5 am compared with other times of day (5.6, 1.4 to 22.7). No increase in risk was associated with measures of chronic sleepiness. The population attributable risk for driving with one or more of the acute sleepiness risk factors was 19% (15% to 25%). Conclusions Acute sleepiness in car drivers significantly increases the risk of a crash in which a car occupant is injured or killed. Reductions in road traffic injuries may be achieved if fewer people drive when they are sleepy or have been deprived of sleep or drive between 2 am and 5 am. What is already known on this topicDriver sleepiness is considered a potentially important risk factor for car crashes and related injuries but the association has not been reliably quantifiedPublished estimates of the proportion of car crashes attributable to driver sleepiness vary from

A population based survey of ergonomic risk factors in Connecticut: distribution by industry, occupation, and demographics.

PubMed

Morse, Tim F; Warren, Nicholas; Dillon, Charles; Diva, Ulysses

2007-05-01

Risk factors for upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders (MSD) include biomechanical factors (force, repetition, posture) and psychosocial factors (job stress). A population-based telephone survey of workers in Connecticut characterized these risk factors by industry, occupation, gender, and age. Risk factors were highly prevalent in the Connecticut workplace, but varied considerably by industry, occupation, gender, and age. Risk factors clustered based on (a) physically active occupations/industries (pushing/pulling, reaching, bent wrists, and tool use), (b) physically passive occupations/industries (static postures, stress, and computer use), and (c) repetitive motion exposures. Physically active patterns had the highest prevalence in construction/agriculture/mining, followed by (in order) wholesale/retail trade, utilities, manufacturing, services, government, and finance/insurance. Physically passive patterns tended to reverse this order, and repetitive motion followed a third pattern. Physically active risk factors were typically higher for males, though this varied by industry and occupation. All risk factors except for stress show a steady decrease with age. Almost 1,000,000 Connecticut workers are estimated to be exposed to repetitive work, bent wrists, and job stress. Workers in high exposure industries and occupations should be closely evaluated for risks, with outreach to industries for preventive ergonomic interventions as preferred to treatment for conditions that arise.

Validation of the German Diabetes Risk Score within a population-based representative cohort.

PubMed

Hartwig, S; Kuss, O; Tiller, D; Greiser, K H; Schulze, M B; Dierkes, J; Werdan, K; Haerting, J; Kluttig, A

2013-09-01

To validate the German Diabetes Risk Score within the population-based cohort of the Cardiovascular Disease - Living and Ageing in Halle (CARLA) study. The sample included 582 women and 719 men, aged 45-83 years, who did not have diabetes at baseline. The individual risk of every participant was calculated using the German Diabetes Risk Score, which was modified for 4 years of follow-up. Predicted probabilities and observed outcomes were compared using Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit tests and receiver-operator characteristic analyses. Changes in prediction power were investigated by expanding the German Diabetes Risk Score to include metabolic variables and by subgroup analyses. We found 58 cases of incident diabetes. The median 4-year probability of developing diabetes based on the German Diabetes Risk Score was 6.5%. The observed and predicted probabilities of developing diabetes were similar, although estimation was imprecise owing to the small number of cases, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test returned a poor correlation (chi-squared = 55.3; P = 5.8*10⁻¹²). The area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.70 (95% CI 0.64-0.77), and after excluding participants ≥66 years old, the AUC increased to 0.77 (95% CI 0.70-0.84). Consideration of glycaemic diagnostic variables, in addition to self-reported diabetes, reduced the AUC to 0.65 (95% CI 0.58-0.71). A new model that included the German Diabetes Risk Score and blood glucose concentration (AUC 0.81; 95% CI 0.76-0.86) or HbA(1c) concentration (AUC 0.84; 95% CI 0.80-0.91) was found to peform better. Application of the German Diabetes Risk Score in the CARLA cohort did not reproduce the findings in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) Potsdam study, which may be explained by cohort differences and model overfit in the latter; however, a high score does provide an indication of increased risk of diabetes. © 2013 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine © 2013 Diabetes

Nitrate in drinking water and colorectal cancer risk: A nationwide population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Schullehner, Jörg; Hansen, Birgitte; Thygesen, Malene; Pedersen, Carsten B; Sigsgaard, Torben

2018-07-01

Nitrate in drinking water may increase risk of colorectal cancer due to endogenous transformation into carcinogenic N-nitroso compounds. Epidemiological studies are few and often challenged by their limited ability of estimating long-term exposure on a detailed individual level. We exploited population-based health register data, linked in time and space with longitudinal drinking water quality data, on an individual level to study the association between long-term drinking water nitrate exposure and colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. Individual nitrate exposure was calculated for 2.7 million adults based on drinking water quality analyses at public waterworks and private wells between 1978 and 2011. For the main analyses, 1.7 million individuals with highest exposure assessment quality were included. Follow-up started at age 35. We identified 5,944 incident CRC cases during 23 million person-years at risk. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) of nitrate exposure on the risk of CRC, colon and rectal cancer. Persons exposed to the highest level of drinking water nitrate had an HR of 1.16 (95% CI: 1.08-1.25) for CRC compared with persons exposed to the lowest level. We found statistically significant increased risks at drinking water levels above 3.87 mg/L, well below the current drinking water standard of 50 mg/L. Our results add to the existing evidence suggesting increased CRC risk at drinking water nitrate concentrations below the current drinking water standard. A discussion on the adequacy of the drinking water standard in regards to chronic effects is warranted. © 2018 UICC.

A genetic study and meta-analysis of the genetic predisposition of prostate cancer in a Chinese population.

PubMed

Marzec, Jacek; Mao, Xueying; Li, Meiling; Wang, Meilin; Feng, Ninghan; Gou, Xin; Wang, Guomin; Sun, Zan; Xu, Jianfeng; Xu, Hua; Zhang, Xiaoping; Zhao, Shan-Chao; Ren, Guoping; Yu, Yongwei; Wu, Yudong; Wu, Ji; Xue, Yao; Zhou, Bo; Zhang, Yanling; Xu, Xingxing; Li, Jie; He, Weiyang; Benlloch, Sara; Ross-Adams, Helen; Chen, Li; Li, Jucong; Hong, Yingqia; Kote-Jarai, Zsofia; Cui, Xingang; Hou, Jianguo; Guo, Jianming; Xu, Lei; Yin, Changjun; Zhou, Yuanping; Neal, David E; Oliver, Tim; Cao, Guangwen; Zhang, Zhengdong; Easton, Douglas F; Chelala, Claude; Al Olama, Ali Amin; Eeles, Rosalind A; Zhang, Hongwei; Lu, Yong-Jie

2016-04-19

Prostate cancer predisposition has been extensively investigated in European populations, but there have been few studies of other ethnic groups. To investigate prostate cancer susceptibility in the under-investigated Chinese population, we performed single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array analysis on a cohort of Chinese cases and controls and then meta-analysis with data from the existing Chinese prostate cancer genome-wide association study (GWAS). Genotyping 211,155 SNPs in 495 cases and 640 controls of Chinese ancestry identified several new suggestive Chinese prostate cancer predisposition loci. However, none of them reached genome-wide significance level either by meta-analysis or replication study. The meta-analysis with the Chinese GWAS data revealed that four 8q24 loci are the main contributors to Chinese prostate cancer risk and the risk alleles from three of them exist at much higher frequencies in Chinese than European populations. We also found that several predisposition loci reported in Western populations have different effect on Chinese men. Therefore, this first extensive single-nucleotide polymorphism study of Chinese prostate cancer in comparison with European population indicates that four loci on 8q24 contribute to a great risk of prostate cancer in a considerable large proportion of Chinese men. Based on those four loci, the top 10% of the population have six- or two-fold prostate cancer risk compared with men of the bottom 10% or median risk respectively, which may facilitate the design of prostate cancer genetic risk screening and prevention in Chinese men. These findings also provide additional insights into the etiology and pathogenesis of prostate cancer.

Anterior cruciate ligament injury: Identifying information sources and risk factor awareness among the general population.

PubMed

Nagano, Yasuharu; Yako-Suketomo, Hiroko; Natsui, Hiroaki

2018-01-01

Raising awareness on a disorder is important for its prevention and for promoting public health. However, for sports injuries like the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury no studies have investigated the awareness on risk factors for injury and possible preventative measures in the general population. The sources of information among the population are also unclear. The purpose of the present study was to identify these aspects of public awareness about the ACL injury. A questionnaire was randomly distributed among the general population registered with a web based questionnaire supplier, to recruit 900 participants who were aware about the ACL injury. The questionnaire consisted of two parts: Question 1 asked them about their sources of information regarding the ACL injury; Question 2 asked them about the risk factors for ACL injury. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine the information sources that provide a good understanding of the risk factors. The leading source of information for ACL injury was television (57.0%). However, the results of logistic regression analysis revealed that television was not an effective medium to create awareness about the risk factors, among the general population. Instead "Lecture by a coach", "Classroom session on Health", and "Newspaper" were significantly more effective in creating a good awareness of the risk factors (p < 0.001).

Determining population based mortality risk in the Department of Veterans Affairs.

PubMed

Stefos, Theodore; Lehner, Laura; Render, Marta; Moran, Eileen; Almenoff, Peter

2012-06-01

We develop a patient level hierarchical regression model using administrative claims data to assess mortality outcomes for a national VA population. This model, which complements more traditional process driven performance measures, includes demographic variables and disease specific measures of risk classified by Diagnostic Cost Groups (DCGs). Results indicate some ability to discriminate survivors and non-survivors with an area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (C-statistic) of .86. Observed to expected mortality ranges from .86 to 1.12 across predicted mortality deciles while Risk Standardized Mortality Rates (RSMRs) range from .76 to 1.29 across 145 VA hospitals. Further research is necessary to understand mortality variation which persists even after adjusting for case mix differences. Future work is also necessary to examine the role of personal behaviors on patient outcomes and the potential impact on population survival rates from changes in treatment policy and infrastructure investment.

Type 2 Diabetes Risk Allele Loci in the Qatari Population

PubMed Central

Abi Khalil, Charbel; Fakhro, Khalid A.; Robay, Amal; Ramstetter, Monica D.; Al-Azwani, Iman K.; Malek, Joel A.; Zirie, Mahmoud; Jayyousi, Amin; Badii, Ramin; Al-Nabet Al-Marri, Ajayeb; Chiuchiolo, Maria J.; Al-Shakaki, Alya; Chidiac, Omar; Gharbiah, Maey; Bener, Abdulbari; Stadler, Dora; Hackett, Neil R.; Mezey, Jason G.; Crystal, Ronald G.

2016-01-01

Background The prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) is increasing in the Middle East. However, the genetic risk factors for T2D in the Middle Eastern populations are not known, as the majority of studies of genetic risk for T2D are in Europeans and Asians. Methods All subjects were ≥3 generation Qataris. Cases with T2D (n = 1,124) and controls (n = 590) were randomly recruited and assigned to the 3 known Qatari genetic subpopulations [Bedouin (Q1), Persian/South Asian (Q2) and African (Q3)]. Subjects underwent genotyping for 37 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 29 genes known to be associated with T2D in Europeans and/or Asian populations, and an additional 27 tag SNPs related to these susceptibility loci. Pre-study power analysis suggested that with the known incidence of T2D in adult Qataris (22%), the study population size would be sufficient to detect significant differences if the SNPs were risk factors among Qataris, assuming that the odds ratio (OR) for T2D SNPs in Qatari’s is greater than or equal to the SNP with highest known OR in other populations. Results Haplotype analysis demonstrated that Qatari haplotypes in the region of known T2D risk alleles in Q1 and Q2 genetic subpopulations were similar to European haplotypes. After Benjamini-Hochberg adjustment for multiple testing, only two SNPs (rs7903146 and rs4506565), both associated with transcription factor 7-like 2 (TCF7L2), achieved statistical significance in the whole study population. When T2D subjects and control subjects were assigned to the known 3 Qatari subpopulations, and analyzed individually and with the Q1 and Q2 genetic subpopulations combined, one of these SNPs (rs4506565) was also significant in the admixed group. No other SNPs associated with T2D in all Qataris or individual genetic subpopulations. Conclusions With the caveats of the power analysis, the European/Asian T2D SNPs do not contribute significantly to the high prevalence of T2D in the Qatari population, suggesting

Dietary patterns and colorectal cancer: results from a Canadian population-based study.

PubMed

Chen, Zhi; Wang, Peizhong Peter; Woodrow, Jennifer; Zhu, Yun; Roebothan, Barbara; Mclaughlin, John R; Parfrey, Patrick S

2015-01-15

The relationship between major dietary patterns and colorectal cancer (CRC) in other populations largely remains consistent across studies. The objective of the present study is to assess if dietary patterns are associated with the risk of CRC in the population of Newfoundland and Labrador (NL). Data from a population based case-control study in the province of NL were analyzed, including 506 CRC patients (306 men and 200 women) and 673 controls (400 men and 273 women), aged 20-74 years. Dietary habits were assessed by a 169-item food frequency questionnaire (FFQ). Logistic regression analyses were performed to investigate the association between dietary patterns and the CRC risk. Three major dietary patterns were derived using factor analysis, namely a Meat-diet pattern, a Plant-based diet pattern and a Sugary-diet pattern. In combination the three dietary patterns explained 74% of the total variance in food intake. Results suggest that the Meat-diet and the Sugary-diet increased the risk of CRC with corresponding odds ratios (ORs) of 1.84 (95% CI: 1.19-2.86) and 2.26 (95% CI: 1.39-3.66) for people in the highest intake quintile compared to those in the lowest. Whereas plant-based diet pattern decreases the risk of CRC with a corresponding OR of 0.55 (95% CI: 0.35-0.87). Even though odds ratios (ORs) were not always statistically significant, largely similar associations across three cancer sites were found: the proximal colon, the distal colon, and the rectum. The finding that Meat-diet/Sugary-diet patterns increased and Plant-based diet pattern decreased the risk of CRC would guide the promotion of healthy eating for primary prevention of CRC in this population.

Coffee consumption and risk of colorectal cancer in a population-based prospective cohort of Japanese men and women.

PubMed

Lee, Kyung-Jae; Inoue, Manami; Otani, Tetsuya; Iwasaki, Motoki; Sasazuki, Shizuka; Tsugane, Shoichiro

2007-09-15

We prospectively examined the association between coffee consumption and the risk of developing colorectal cancer in a large population-based cohort study (the JPHC Study) of Japanese men and women. Data were analyzed from a population-based cohort of 96,162 subjects (46,023 men and 50,139 women). A total of 1,163 incident colorectal cancers were identified during the follow-up period, including 763 cases of colon cancer and 400 of rectal cancer. We observed a significant inverse association between coffee consumption and the risk of developing invasive colon cancer among women. Compared with those who almost never consumed coffee, women who regularly consumed 3 or more cups of coffee per day had a RR of 0.44 (95% CI = 0.19-1.04; p for trend = 0.04) after adjustment for potential confounding factors. However, no significant association was found for rectal cancer in women. In men, no significant decrease was observed in any colorectal cancer site. Further, additional analyses on the association of green tea consumption with colorectal cancer risk found no significant association in men or women. These findings suggest that coffee consumption may lower the risk of colon cancer among Japanese women. (c) 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Urolithiasis risk: a comparison between healthcare providers and the general population.

PubMed

Chen, Ming-Hung; Weng, Shih-Feng; Hsu, Chien-Chin; Lin, Hung-Jung; Su, Shih-Bin; Wang, Jhi-Joung; Guo, How-Ran; Huang, Chien-Cheng

2016-07-18

Healthcare providers have many health-related risk factors that might contribute to urolithiasis: a heavy workload, a stressful workplace, and an unhealthy quality of life. However, the urolithiasis risk in healthcare providers is not clear. Using Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database, we identified 50,226 physicians, 20,677 pharmacists, 122,357 nurses, and 25,059 other healthcare providers as the study cohort and then randomly selected an identical number of patients who are not healthcare providers (general population) as the comparison cohort for this study. Conditional logistical regression analysis was used to compare the urolithiasis risk between healthcare providers and comparisons. Physician specialty subgroups were also analyzed. Physicians had a lower urolithiasis risk than did the general population (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 0.682; 95 % confidence interval [CI]: 0.634-0.732) and other healthcare providers (AOR: 0.661; 95 % CI 0.588-0.742) after adjusting for hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, coronary artery disease, and residence location. For pharmacists, nurses, and other healthcare providers, the urolithiasis risk was not significantly different than that for general population. Subgroup analysis showed that surgeons and family medicine physicians had a lower urolithiasis risk than did physician comparisons (AOR: 0.778; 95 % CI: 0.630-0.962 and AOR: 0.737; 95 % CI: 0.564-0.962, respectively). Although job stress and heavy workloads affect physicians' health, physicians had a lower urolithiasis risk than did the general population and other healthcare providers. This might be attributable to their greater medical knowledge and access to healthcare. Our findings provide useful information for public health policy makers about the disease risks of healthcare providers.

Risk Factors for Stillbirth: Findings from a Population-Based Case-Control Study, Haryana, India.

PubMed

Neogi, Sutapa Bandyopadhyay; Negandhi, Preeti; Chopra, Sapna; Das, Ankan Mukherjee; Zodpey, Sanjay; Gupta, Ravi Kant; Gupta, Rakesh

2016-01-01

Stillbirth is a prevalent adverse outcome of pregnancy in India despite efforts to improve care of women during pregnancy. Risk factors for stillbirths include sociodemographic factors, medical complications during pregnancy, intake of harmful drugs, and complications during delivery. The objective of the study was to examine the risk factors for stillbirth with a focus on sex selection drugs (SSDs). A population-based case-control study was undertaken in Haryana. Cases of stillbirths were identified from the Maternal Infant Death Review System portal of Haryana state for the months of August-September 2014. A consecutive birth from the same geographical area as the case was selected as the control. The sample size was 325 per group. Mothers were interviewed using a validated tool. Bivariate analyses and logistic regression were conducted to examine the association between risk factors and stillbirth. Attributable risk proportions (ARP) and population attributable risk proportions (PARP) were estimated. The sociodemographic profiles of the cases and controls were similar. History of intake of SSDs [adjusted odds ratio (OR) 2.6, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.5, 4.5] emerged as a risk factor. Other significant factors were preterm <37 weeks (OR 3.5, 95% CI 2.1, 6.0), history of previous stillbirths (OR 4.0, 95% CI 2.1, 7.8), and complications during labour (OR 3.3, 95% CI 2.1, 5.3). Estimates of the ARP and PARP for intake of SSDs were 0.60 (95% CI 0.32, 0.77) and 0.1 (95% CI -0.13, 0.28), respectively. SSDs could be attributed as a risk factor in a fifth of the cases of stillbirths. The number needed to harm for the use of SSDs in causing adverse effect of stillbirths was 5, suggesting thereby that for every five mothers exposed to SSDs, one would have stillbirth. Greater efforts are required to inform people about the harmful effects of SSD consumption during pregnancy. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Occupation and malignant lymphoma: a population based case control study in Germany

PubMed Central

Mester, B; Nieters, A; Deeg, E; Elsner, G; Becker, N; Seidler, A

2006-01-01

Aims To identify occupations suspected to be associated with malignant lymphoma and to generate new hypotheses about occupational risks in a multicentre, population based case control study. Methods Male and female patients with malignant lymphoma (n = 710) aged 18–80 years of age were prospectively recruited in six study regions in Germany. For each newly recruited lymphoma case, a sex, region, and age matched control was drawn from the population registers. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for major occupations and industries were calculated using conditional logistic regression analysis, adjusted for smoking (in pack‐years) and alcohol consumption. Patients with specific lymphoma subentities were additionally compared with the entire control group using unconditional logistic regression analysis. Results The following economic/industrial sectors were positively associated with lymphoma: food products, beverages, tobacco; paper products, publishing and printing; and metals. Chemicals; real estate, renting, and business activities were negatively associated with lymphoma diagnosis. The authors observed an increased overall lymphoma risk among architects; maids; farmers; glass formers; and construction workers. Shoemaking and leather goods making was negatively associated with the lymphoma diagnosis (although based on small numbers). In the occupational group analysis of lymphoma subentities, Hodgkin's lymphoma was significantly associated only with rubber and plastic products making; diffuse large B cell lymphoma risk was considerably increased among metal processors; follicular lymphoma showed highly significant risk increases for several occupational groups (medical, dental, and veterinary workers; sales workers; machinery fitters; and electrical fitters); and multiple myeloma showed a particularly pronounced risk increase for farmers as well as for agriculture and animal husbandry workers. Conclusions The results partly confirm previously

[Optimum population analysis of Jilin Province, China based on comprehensive carrying capacity.

PubMed

Li, Xiu Xia; Meng, Mei

2017-10-01

The regional moderate population model was constructed using state-space method, and the weights of relevant factors were obtained using principal component analysis. The optimum population of Jilin Province during 2005-2014 was calculated and the causes for its formation were discussed. The results showed that the optimum population of Jilin Province was in deficit from 2005-2014, and the imbalance existed between the population, resources and environment. The resources carrying population was significantly higher than the economic carrying and the ecological carrying population, indicating that the economic development of Jilin Province was established at the expense of destroying the environment. Moreover, the land resources carrying population was substantially higher than the water and energy carrying population, which was at a deficit, indicating that the economic development of Jilin Province was based on the depletion of energy and water resources. In the future, water resources carrying capacity should be improved according to the local conditions, the energy efficiency should be enhanced via the development of new energy sources, the extensive and consumption-based resource utilization should be transformed to the intensive and low-carbon type, and the production mode and consumption patterns should be changed to protect the ecological environment.

Antiepileptic drugs and the risk of ischaemic stroke and myocardial infarction: a population-based cohort study

PubMed Central

Renoux, Christel; Dell'Aniello, Sophie; Saarela, Olli; Filion, Kristian B; Boivin, Jean-François

2015-01-01

Objectives Hepatic enzyme-inducing antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) increase serum lipid levels and other atherogenic markers via the induction of cytochrome P450 and may therefore increase the risk of vascular events. We sought to assess the risk of ischaemic stroke and myocardial infarction (MI) according to AED enzymatic properties. Design Population-based cohort study with nested case–control analysis. Setting 650 general practices in the UK contributing to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Participants A cohort of 252 407 incident AED users aged 18 or older between January 1990 and April 2013. For each case of ischaemic stroke or MI, up to 10 controls were randomly selected among the cohort members in the risk sets defined by the case and matched on age, sex, indication for AED, calendar time and duration of follow-up. Interventions Current use of enzyme-inducing and enzyme-inhibiting AEDs compared with non-inducing AEDs. Primary outcome measures Incidence rate ratios (RRs) of ischaemic stroke and MI. Results 5069 strokes and 3636 MIs were identified during follow-up. Inducing AEDs use was associated with a small increased risk of ischaemic stroke (RR=1.16, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.33) relative to non-inducing AEDs, most likely due to residual confounding. However, current use of inducing AEDs for ≥24 months was associated with a 46% increased risk of MI (RR=1.46, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.85) compared with the same duration of non-inducing AED, corresponding to a risk difference of 1.39/1000 (95% CI 0.33 to 2.45) persons per year. Current use of inhibiting AED was associated with a decreased risk of MI (RR=0.81, 95% CI 0.66 to 1.00). Conclusions The use of enzyme-inducing AEDs was not associated with an increased risk of ischaemic stroke; a small increase of MI with prolonged use was observed. In contrast, use of inhibiting AEDs was associated with a decreased risk of MI. PMID:26270948

Prostate-Specific Antigen (PSA)-Based Population Screening for Prostate Cancer: An Evidence-Based Analysis.

PubMed

Pron, G

2015-01-01

Prostate cancer (PC) is the most commonly diagnosed non-cutaneous cancer in men and their second or third leading cause of cancer death. Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing for PC has been in common practice for more than 20 years. A systematic review of the scientific literature was conducted to determine the effectiveness of PSA-based population screening programs for PC to inform policy decisions in a publicly funded health care system. A systematic review of bibliographic databases was performed for systematic reviews or randomized controlled trials (RCT) of PSA-based population screening programs for PC. A broad search strategy was employed to identify studies reporting on key outcomes of PC mortality and all-cause mortality. The search identified 5 systematic reviews and 6 RCTs. None of the systematic reviews found a statistically significant reduction in relative risk (RR) of PC mortality or overall mortality with PSA-based screening. PC mortality reductions were found to vary by country, by screening program, and by age of men at study entry. The European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer found a statistically significant reduction in RR in PC mortality at 11-year follow-up (0.79; 95% CI, 0.67-0.92), although the absolute risk reduction was small (1.0/10,000 person-years). However, the primary treatment for PCs differed significantly between countries and between trial arms. The American Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO) found a statistically non-significant increase in RR for PC mortality with 13-year follow-up (1.09; 95% CI, 0.87-1.36). The degree of opportunistic screening in the control arm of the PLCO trial, however, was high. None of the RCTs found a reduction in all-cause mortality and all found a statistically significant increase in the detection of mainly low-risk, organ-confined PCs in the screening arm. There was no evidence of a PC mortality reduction in the American PLCO trial, which

Mapping genes underlying ethnic differences in disease risk by linkage disequilibrium in recently admixed populations.

PubMed Central

McKeigue, P M

1997-01-01

Where recent admixture has occurred between two populations that have different disease rates for genetic reasons, family-based association studies can be used to map the genes underlying these differences, if the ancestry of the alleles at each locus examined can be assigned to one of the two founding populations. This article explores the statistical power and design requirements of this approach. Markers suitable for assigning the ancestry of genomic regions could be defined by grouping alleles at closely spaced microsatellite loci into haplotypes, or generated by representational difference analysis. For a given relative risk between populations, the sample size required to detect a disease locus that accounts for this relative risk by linkage-disequilibrium mapping in an admixed population is not critically dependent on assumptions about genotype penetrances or allele frequencies. Using the transmission-disequilibrium test to search the genome for a locus that accounts for a relative risk of between 2 and 3 in a high-risk population, compared with a low-risk population, generally requires between 150 and 800 case-parent pairs of mixed descent. The optimal strategy is to conduct an initial study using markers spaced at < or = 10 cM with cases from the second and third generations of mixed descent, and then to map the disease loci more accurately in a subsequent study of a population with a longer history of admixture. This approach has greater statistical power than allele-sharing designs and has obvious applications to the genetics of hypertension, non-insulin-dependent diabetes, and obesity. PMID:8981962

Methods Development for a Spatially Explicit Population-Level Risk Assessment, Uncertainty Analysis, and Comparison with Risk Quotient Approaches

EPA Science Inventory

The standard framework of Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) uses organism-level assessment endpoints to qualitatively determine the risk to populations. While organism-level toxicity data provide the pathway by which a species may be affected by a chemical stressor, they neither i...

POPULATION AT RISK TO VARIOUS AIR POLLUTION EXPOSURES: DATA BASE 'POPATRISK'

EPA Science Inventory

The work reported was undertaken to provide the EPA with a user-oriented data base containing recent county-based information, for all counties in the contiguous United States, on population demographics, population mobility, climatology, emissions, air quality, and age-adjusted ...

Risk factors for breast cancer by oestrogen receptor status: a population-based case-control study.

PubMed Central

Cooper, J. A.; Rohan, T. E.; Cant, E. L.; Horsfall, D. J.; Tilley, W. D.

1989-01-01

Data from a population-based case-control study conducted in Adelaide, South Australia, and involving 451 case-control pairs, were analysed to determine whether the associations of menstrual, reproductive, dietary and other factors with risk of breast cancer differed by oestrogen receptor (ER) status. Data on ER status were available for 380 cases. The proportion of tumours which were ER+ increased with age, and there was a higher proportion of ER+ tumours in post-menopausal than in premenopausal women. Both oral contraceptive use (P = 0.055) and cigarette smoking (P = 0.047) were associated with increased (unadjusted) risk of ER- cancer, while having little association with risk of ER+ cancer. Most dietary factors had little association with risk of either cancer type, the main exception being the reduction in risk of ER- breast cancer with increasing beta-carotene intake (P for trend = 0.017). In general, however, links with the factors examined were not strong enough to suggest different causal pathways for ER- and ER+ breast cancer. PMID:2757918

Higher risk of developing a subsequent migraine in adults with nonapnea sleep disorders: A nationwide population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Harnod, Tomor; Wang, Yu-Chiao; Kao, Chia-Hung

2015-05-01

This nationwide population-based cohort study evaluated the effect of nonapnea sleep disorders (NSDs) on the subsequent development of a migraine. We identified 46,777 patients aged 20 years and older who were diagnosed with an NSD (ICD-9-CM: 307.4 or 780.5) and without coding for apnea-sleep disorders (ICD-9-CM: 780.51, 780.53, or 780.57) between 2000 and 2002 as the sleep disorder (SD) cohort. A comparison cohort of 93,552 people was enrolled. We calculated the adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) for developing a migraine (ICD-9-CM: 346) after adjusting for age, sex, comorbidity, and drug use. A Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to measure the cumulative incidence of a migraine between 2 curves until the end of 2011. The cumulative incidence of a migraine was significantly higher in the SD cohort. The aHR for developing a migraine in the SD cohort was 3.52 (95% CI=3.28-3.79). The risk of developing a migraine with an NSD was higher in men (aHR=4.31) than in women (aHR=3.35). The age-stratified effect of an NSD on developing a migraine was highest among patients aged 55 years and younger. Higher risks of developing a migraine were observed among the participants without any comorbidity and without any drug treatment for their insomnia. The findings of this population-based cohort study indicate a higher risk of developing a subsequent migraine in patients with an NSD, which could be considered an independent, predisposing factor for developing subsequent a migraine in adulthood. Copyright © 2015 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An innovative expression model of human health risk based on the quantitative analysis of soil metals sources contribution in different spatial scales.

PubMed

Zhang, Yimei; Li, Shuai; Wang, Fei; Chen, Zhuang; Chen, Jie; Wang, Liqun

2018-09-01

Toxicity of heavy metals from industrialization poses critical concern, and analysis of sources associated with potential human health risks is of unique significance. Assessing human health risk of pollution sources (factored health risk) concurrently in the whole and the sub region can provide more instructive information to protect specific potential victims. In this research, we establish a new expression model of human health risk based on quantitative analysis of sources contribution in different spatial scales. The larger scale grids and their spatial codes are used to initially identify the level of pollution risk, the type of pollution source and the sensitive population at high risk. The smaller scale grids and their spatial codes are used to identify the contribution of various sources of pollution to each sub region (larger grid) and to assess the health risks posed by each source for each sub region. The results of case study show that, for children (sensitive populations, taking school and residential area as major region of activity), the major pollution source is from the abandoned lead-acid battery plant (ALP), traffic emission and agricultural activity. The new models and results of this research present effective spatial information and useful model for quantifying the hazards of source categories and human health a t complex industrial system in the future. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The impact of clinical, demographic and risk factors on rates of HIV transmission: a population-based phylogenetic analysis in British Columbia, Canada.

PubMed

Poon, Art F Y; Joy, Jeffrey B; Woods, Conan K; Shurgold, Susan; Colley, Guillaume; Brumme, Chanson J; Hogg, Robert S; Montaner, Julio S G; Harrigan, P Richard

2015-03-15

The diversification of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is shaped by its transmission history. We therefore used a population based province wide HIV drug resistance database in British Columbia (BC), Canada, to evaluate the impact of clinical, demographic, and behavioral factors on rates of HIV transmission. We reconstructed molecular phylogenies from 27,296 anonymized bulk HIV pol sequences representing 7747 individuals in BC-about half the estimated HIV prevalence in BC. Infections were grouped into clusters based on phylogenetic distances, as a proxy for variation in transmission rates. Rates of cluster expansion were reconstructed from estimated dates of HIV seroconversion. Our criteria grouped 4431 individuals into 744 clusters largely separated with respect to risk factors, including large established clusters predominated by injection drug users and more-recently emerging clusters comprising men who have sex with men. The mean log10 viral load of an individual's phylogenetic neighborhood (composed of 5 other individuals with shortest phylogenetic distances) increased their odds of appearing in a cluster by >2-fold per log10 viruses per milliliter. Hotspots of ongoing HIV transmission can be characterized in near real time by the secondary analysis of HIV resistance genotypes, providing an important potential resource for targeting public health initiatives for HIV prevention. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Evaluating diagnosis-based risk-adjustment methods in a population with spinal cord dysfunction.

PubMed

Warner, Grace; Hoenig, Helen; Montez, Maria; Wang, Fei; Rosen, Amy

2004-02-01

To examine performance of models in predicting health care utilization for individuals with spinal cord dysfunction. Regression models compared 2 diagnosis-based risk-adjustment methods, the adjusted clinical groups (ACGs) and diagnostic cost groups (DCGs). To improve prediction, we added to our model: (1) spinal cord dysfunction-specific diagnostic information, (2) limitations in self-care function, and (3) both 1 and 2. Models were replicated in 3 populations. Samples from 3 populations: (1) 40% of veterans using Veterans Health Administration services in fiscal year 1997 (FY97) (N=1,046,803), (2) veteran sample with spinal cord dysfunction identified by codes from the International Statistical Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modifications (N=7666), and (3) veteran sample identified in Veterans Affairs Spinal Cord Dysfunction Registry (N=5888). Not applicable. Inpatient, outpatient, and total days of care in FY97. The DCG models (R(2) range,.22-.38) performed better than ACG models (R(2) range,.04-.34) for all outcomes. Spinal cord dysfunction-specific diagnostic information improved prediction more in the ACG model than in the DCG model (R(2) range for ACG,.14-.34; R(2) range for DCG,.24-.38). Information on self-care function slightly improved performance (R(2) range increased from 0 to.04). The DCG risk-adjustment models predicted health care utilization better than ACG models. ACG model prediction was improved by adding information.

Cancer risk in fathers and brothers of testicular cancer patients in Denmark. A population-based study.

PubMed

Westergaard, T; Olsen, J H; Frisch, M; Kroman, N; Nielsen, J W; Melbye, M

1996-05-29

There are several reports of familial testicular cancer in the literature but few systematic attempts have been made to estimate the risk of testicular cancer in first-degree relatives of patients with this neoplasm, and the risk remains to be fully assessed in population-based studies. By means of data from the Danish Cancer Registry, we identified all testicular cancer patients (index cases) born and diagnosed during 1950-1993 in Denmark. Their fathers were identified from national registries, as were the brothers of a subcohort of these patients. Familial cancer occurrence was determined through linkage with the cancer registry and compared with the cancer incidence in the general male population in Denmark. The ratio of observed to expected cancers generated the measure used for the relative risk. Fathers of 2,113 index cases with testicular cancer experienced an almost 2-fold risk of developing testicular cancer themselves (RR = 1.96; 95% CI: 1.01-3.43). Overall, the fathers had a decreased relative cancer risk (RR = 0.84; 95% CI: 0.74-0.95) with a significantly decreased risk of cancers of the lung and digestive organs. Brothers of a subcohort of 702 index cases showed a markedly increased risk of testicular cancer (RR = 12.3; 95% CI: 3.3-3 1.5). In conclusion, we documented a significantly increased familial risk of testicular cancer which was relatively more pronounced between brothers than between fathers and sons. These findings support the possible involvement of a genetic component in the aetiology of testicular cancer, but also leave room for a hypothesized influence of in-utero exposures, such as specific maternal hormone levels, that might be shared by brothers.

Increased risk of pyogenic liver abscess in patients with alcohol intoxication: A population-based retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Wang, Yao-Chien; Yang, Kai-Wei; Lee, Tien-Ying Peter; Lin, Cheng-Li; Liaw, Geng-Wang; Hung, Dong-Zong; Kao, Chia-Hung; Chen, Wei-Kung; Yang, Tse-Yen

2017-11-01

We designed a population-based retrospective cohort study to investigate the association between the event of alcohol intoxication and the risk of pyogenic liver abscess. The present study enrolled 245,076 patients with a history of alcohol intoxication from 2000 to 2010 and matched each of them with four comparison patients, with similar mean age and sex ratios. We determined the cumulative incidences and adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) of liver abscess. A significant association was observed between alcohol intoxication and liver abscess. The incidence density rate of liver abscess was 3.47-fold greater in the alcohol intoxication (AI) cohort than in the non-AI cohort (12.2 vs. 3.43 per 10,000 person-years), with an adjusted HR (aHR) of 2.64 (95% CI = 2.26 to 3.08). This population-based study positively associated the event of alcohol intoxication with increased risk of liver abscess. Our findings warrant further large-scale and in-depth investigations in this area. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predation Risk Shapes Social Networks in Fission-Fusion Populations

PubMed Central

Kelley, Jennifer L.; Morrell, Lesley J.; Inskip, Chloe; Krause, Jens; Croft, Darren P.

2011-01-01

Predation risk is often associated with group formation in prey, but recent advances in methods for analysing the social structure of animal societies make it possible to quantify the effects of risk on the complex dynamics of spatial and temporal organisation. In this paper we use social network analysis to investigate the impact of variation in predation risk on the social structure of guppy shoals and the frequency and duration of shoal splitting (fission) and merging (fusion) events. Our analyses revealed that variation in the level of predation risk was associated with divergent social dynamics, with fish in high-risk populations displaying a greater number of associations with overall greater strength and connectedness than those from low-risk sites. Temporal patterns of organisation also differed according to predation risk, with fission events more likely to occur over two short time periods (5 minutes and 20 minutes) in low-predation fish and over longer time scales (>1.5 hours) in high-predation fish. Our findings suggest that predation risk influences the fine-scale social structure of prey populations and that the temporal aspects of organisation play a key role in defining social systems. PMID:21912627

[Prevalence of Cardiovascular Risk Factors at The Population Level: A Comparison of Ambulatory Physician-Coded Claims Data With Clinical Data From A Population-Based Study].

PubMed

Angelow, Aniela; Reber, Katrin Christiane; Schmidt, Carsten Oliver; Baumeister, Sebastian Edgar; Chenot, Jean-Francois

2018-06-04

The study assesses the validity of ICD-10 coded cardiovascular risk factors in claims data using gold-standard measurements from a population-based study for arterial hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, smoking and obesity as a reference. Data of 1941 participants (46 % male, mean age 58±13 years) of the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP) were linked to electronic medical records from the regional association of statutory health insurance physicians from 2008 to 2012 used for billing purposes. Clinical data from SHIP was used as a gold standard to assess the agreement with claims data for ICD-10 codes I10.- (arterial hypertension), E10.- to E14.- (diabetes mellitus), E78.- (dyslipidemia), F17.- (smoking) and E65.- to E68.- (obesity). A higher agreement between ICD-coded and clinical diagnosis was found for diabetes (sensitivity (sens) 84%, specificity (spec) 95%, positive predictive value (ppv) 80%) and hypertension (sens 72%, spec 93%, ppv 97%) and a low level of agreement for smoking (sens 18%, spec 99%, ppv 89%), obesity (sens 22%, spec 99%, ppv 99%) and dyslipidemia (sens 40%, spec 60%, ppv 70%). Depending on the investigated cardiovascular risk factor, medication, documented additional cardiovascular co-morbidities, age, sex and clinical severity were associated with the ICD-coded cardiovascular risk factor. The quality of ICD-coding in ambulatory care is highly variable for different cardiovascular risk factors and outcomes. Diagnoses were generally undercoded, but those relevant for billing were coded more frequently. Our results can be used to quantify errors in population-based estimates of prevalence based on claims data for the investigated cardiovascular risk factors. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Identification of target risk groups for population-based Clostridium difficile infection prevention strategies using a population attributable risk approach.

PubMed

Oh, Sung-Hee; Kang, Hye-Young

2018-01-01

We aimed to determine risk factors associated with Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) and assess the contributions of these factors on CDI burden. We conducted a 1:4 matched case-control study using a national claims dataset. Cases were incident CDI without a history of CDI in the previous 84 days, and were age- and sex-matched with control patients. We ascertained exposure, defined as a history of morbidities and drug use within 90 days. The population attributable risk (PAR) percent for risk factors was estimated using odds ratios (ORs) obtained from the case-control study. Overall, the strongest CDI-associated risk factors, which have significant contributions to the CDI burden as well, were the experience of gastroenteritis (OR=5.08, PAR%=17.09%) and use of antibiotics (OR=1.69, PAR%=19.00%), followed by the experiences of female pelvic infection, irritable bowel syndrome, inflammatory bowel disease, and pneumonia, and use of proton-pump inhibitors (OR=1.52-2.37, PAR%=1.95-2.90). The control of risk factors that had strong association with CDI and affected large proportions of total CDI cases would be beneficial for CDI prevention. We suggest performing CDI testing for symptomatic patients with gastroenteritis and implementing antibiotics stewardship. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Decision Tree Analysis of Traditional Risk Factors of Carotid Atherosclerosis and a Cutpoint-Based Prevention Strategy

PubMed Central

Lv, Lihong; Xiao, Yufei; Tu, Jiangfeng; Tao, Lisha; Wu, Jiaqi; Tang, Xiaoxiao; Pan, Wensheng

2014-01-01

Background Reducing the exposure to risk factors for the prevention of cardio-cerebral vascular disease is a crucial issue. Few reports have described practical interventions for preventing cardiovascular disease in different genders and age groups, particularly detailed and specific cutpoint-based prevention strategies. Methods We collected the health examination data of 5822 subjects between 20 and 80 years of age. The administration of medical questionnaires and physical examinations and the measurement of blood pressure, fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and blood lipids [total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), high density lipoprotein–cholesterol (HDL-C), and low density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C)] were performed by physicians. Carotid ultrasound was performed to examine the carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT), which was defined as carotid atherosclerosis when CIMT ≥0.9 mm. Decision tree analysis was used to screen for the most important risk factors for carotid atherosclerosis and to identify the relevant cutpoints. Results In the study population, the incidence of carotid atherosclerosis was 12.20% (men: 14.10%, women: 9.20%). The statistical analysis showed significant differences in carotid atherosclerosis incidence between different genders (P<0.0001) and age groups (P<0.001). The decision tree analysis showed that in men, the most important traditional risk factors for carotid atherosclerosis were TC (cutpoint [CP]: 6.31 mmol/L) between the ages of 20–40 and FPG (CP: 5.79 mmol/L) between the ages of 41–59. By comparison, LDL-C (CP: 4.27 mmol/L) became the major risk factor when FPG ≤5.79 mmol/L. FPG (CP: 5.52 mmol/L) and TG (CP: 1.51 mmol/L) were the most important traditional risk factors for women between 20–40 and 41–59 years of age, respectively. Conclusion Traditional risk factors and relevant cutpoints were not identical in different genders and age groups. A specific gender and age group-based cutpoint strategy might contribute

The East London glaucoma prediction score: web-based validation of glaucoma risk screening tool

PubMed Central

Stephen, Cook; Benjamin, Longo-Mbenza

2013-01-01

AIM It is difficult for Optometrists and General Practitioners to know which patients are at risk. The East London glaucoma prediction score (ELGPS) is a web based risk calculator that has been developed to determine Glaucoma risk at the time of screening. Multiple risk factors that are available in a low tech environment are assessed to provide a risk assessment. This is extremely useful in settings where access to specialist care is difficult. Use of the calculator is educational. It is a free web based service. Data capture is user specific. METHOD The scoring system is a web based questionnaire that captures and subsequently calculates the relative risk for the presence of Glaucoma at the time of screening. Three categories of patient are described: Unlikely to have Glaucoma; Glaucoma Suspect and Glaucoma. A case review methodology of patients with known diagnosis is employed to validate the calculator risk assessment. RESULTS Data from the patient records of 400 patients with an established diagnosis has been captured and used to validate the screening tool. The website reports that the calculated diagnosis correlates with the actual diagnosis 82% of the time. Biostatistics analysis showed: Sensitivity = 88%; Positive predictive value = 97%; Specificity = 75%. CONCLUSION Analysis of the first 400 patients validates the web based screening tool as being a good method of screening for the at risk population. The validation is ongoing. The web based format will allow a more widespread recruitment for different geographic, population and personnel variables. PMID:23550097

Self-perceived risk and prevalent chlamydia infection among adolescents in Norway: a population-based cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Gravningen, Kirsten; Braaten, Tonje; Schirmer, Henrik

2016-03-01

Risk judgements are key factors in adolescents' decisions related to sexual health. We examine the associations between self-perceived risk and prevalent chlamydia infection, and sexual behaviours related to risk perception in a general adolescent population in Norway. Population-based cross-sectional study among 1028 sexually experienced girls and boys, age 15-20 years (85% participation), including web questionnaires and urine samples for Chlamydia trachomatis PCR testing. Participants rated self-perceived risk as: no/low/medium/high/very high. We used binary and ordinal logistic regressions to examine associations with chlamydia prevalence and self-perceived risk, respectively, adjusting for potentially confounding variables. Chlamydia prevalence increased with increasing risk perception. Although girls had twice the chlamydia prevalence of boys (7.3% vs 3.9%), their risk distribution was similar and 65% of both genders rated their risk as no/low with half of infections detected in this group. In multivariable analyses, reporting multiple sexual risk behaviours, non-steady relationship, previous chlamydia testing and treatment, and urogenital symptoms increased self-perceived risk. More boys overestimated their personal risk whereas more girls underestimated it (52% vs 30%, respectively, and 15% vs 31%, p<0.001). The main reasons for perceiving no/low risk were: 'I have a steady partner' and 'I trust my partner will tell me about an infection'. These sexually experienced adolescents acknowledged their chlamydia infection risk, but wrong beliefs were incorporated in their assessments, and more than half had incorrect risk perception. We suggest that sexually transmitted infection prevention programmes should be directed at closing the gap between perceived and actual risk and focus on how context may bias personal judgement. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Increased cardiovascular risks associated with familial inbreeding: a population-based study of adolescent cohort.

PubMed

Fareed, Mohd; Afzal, Mohammad

2016-04-01

Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of mortality and morbidity among humans worldwide. We aimed to estimate the effect of familial inbreeding on cardiovascular risks. The study was conducted during April 2014 through June 2014, and a total of 587 adolescent subjects (male = 270, female = 317; 11-18 years of age) were recruited from five Muslim populations viz., Gujjar and Bakarwal (n = 130), Mughal (n = 111), Malik (n = 114), Syed (n = 108), and Khan (n = 124). Wright's path relationship method was used for calculating the coefficient of inbreeding (F). Anthropometric and physiological parameters were estimated using standard methods. We observed higher mean values for major physiological traits among the inbred subjects in comparison with the non-inbred groups of five different populations. Our study suggests that inbreeding and sex are the key factors affecting cardiovascular profile. Multivariate analysis of covariance revealed inbreeding as a major source of variation for cardiovascular risks, dominating over other factors causing greater variability in the physiological traits. The magnitude of cardiovascular risks shows an increase with the increase in the values of coefficient of inbreeding (i.e., from F = 0.00 to F = 0.125). The abnormal levels of systolic blood pressure (SBP; range 140-159 mm Hg) and fasting blood glucose (FBG; range 101-126 mg per dL) show persuasive increase with an upsurge in the homozygosity level (i.e., coefficient of inbreeding). Our comprehensive assessment presents the deleterious consequence of inbreeding on cardiovascular profile. This study can be used as fact-sheet for framing the heath policies and hence can play a vital role in genetic counseling strategies for transforming the public opinion regarding the practice of consanguinity and its associated risks. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Association of zolpidem use and subsequent increased risk of epilepsy: a population-based, case-control study.

PubMed

Harnod, Tomor; Wang, Yu-Chiao; Sung, Fung-Chang; Kao, Chia-Hung

2014-10-01

To evaluate the impact of long-term zolpidem use on the subsequent risk of epilepsy. We used data from the National Health Insurance system of Taiwan to conduct a population-based case-control study. We identified 4,972 newly diagnosed epilepsy patients (ICD-9-CM code 345) for the period of 2005-2010 as cases. For each epilepsy case, 4 controls without a history of epilepsy were randomly selected from the rest of the population. Zolpidem was used as a predictor of epilepsy. Patients with epilepsy exhibited an adjusted odds ratio (OR) of 1.86 (95% CI, 1.70-2.03) and were, therefore, more strongly associated with zolpidem exposure than control patients were. The adjusted OR of epilepsy increased with the increase of mean zolpidem exposure (g/y). Compared with the OR of nonusers, the adjusted OR was 1.64 (95% CI, 1.44-1.86) for those who had taken < 1.0 g/y of zolpidem and 2.38 (95% CI, 2.06-2.74) for those who had taken ≥ 20.0 g/y of zolpidem. An adjusted OR of 3.55 (95% CI, 2.94-4.28) was noted to be associated with epilepsy when users had stopped taking the drug less than 7 days earlier. The estimated risk declined to an OR of 1.62 (95% CI, 1.47-1.78) when users had stopped taking the drug more than 90 days earlier. This population-based, retrospective case-control study revealed a possible increase in epilepsy risk with zolpidem use, at either typical or supratherapeutic doses. These findings might stimulate public interest in safety issues regarding zolpidem use. © Copyright 2014 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

Dietary flavonoid intake and cardiovascular risk: a population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Ponzo, Valentina; Goitre, Ilaria; Fadda, Maurizio; Gambino, Roberto; De Francesco, Antonella; Soldati, Laura; Gentile, Luigi; Magistroni, Paola; Cassader, Maurizio; Bo, Simona

2015-07-08

The cardio-protective effects of flavonoids are still controversial; many studies referred to the benefits of specific foods, such as soy, cocoa, tea. A population-based cohort of middle-aged adults, coming from a semi-rural area where the consumption of those foods is almost negligible, was studied. The primary objective was establishing if flavonoid intake was inversely associated with the cardiovascular (CV) risk evaluated after 12-year follow-up; the associations between flavonoid intake and CV incidence and mortality and all-cause mortality were also evaluated. In 2001-2003, a cohort of 1,658 individuals completed a validated food-frequency questionnaire. Anthropometric, laboratory measurements, medical history and the vital status were collected at baseline and during 2014. The CV risk was estimated with the Framingham risk score. Individuals with the lowest tertile of flavonoid intake showed a worse metabolic pattern and less healthy lifestyle habits. The 2014 CV risk score and the increase in the risk score from baseline were significantly higher with the lowest intake of total and all subclasses of flavonoids, but isoflavones, in a multiple regression model. During follow-up, 125 CV events and 220 deaths (84 of which due to CV causes) occurred. CV non-fatal events were less frequent in individuals with higher flavonoid intake (HR = 0.64; 95%CI 0.42-1.00 and HR = 0.46; 95%CI 0.28-0.75 for the second and third tertiles, respectively) in Cox-regression models, after multiple adjustments. All subclasses of flavonoids, but flavones and isoflavones, were inversely correlated with incident CV events, with HRs ranging from 0.42 (flavan-3-ols) to 0.56 (anthocyanidins). Being in the third tertile of flavan-3-ols (HR = 0.68; 95% CI 0.48-0.96), anthocyanidins (HR = 0.66; 95% CI 0.46-0.95) and flavanones (HR = 0.59; 95% CI 0.40-0.85) was inversely associated with all-cause mortality. Total and subclasses of flavonoids were not significantly associated with the risk of

Smoking, obesity and risk of sarcoidosis: A population-based nested case-control study.

PubMed

Ungprasert, Patompong; Crowson, Cynthia S; Matteson, Eric L

2016-11-01

Smoking and obesity might alter the risk of sarcoidosis. However, the data remained inconclusive. A cohort of Olmsted County, Minnesota residents diagnosed with sarcoidosis between January 1, 1976 and December 31, 2013 was identified based on individual medical record review. For each sarcoidosis subject, one sex and aged-matched control without sarcoidosis was randomly selected from the same underlying population. Medical records of cases and controls were reviewed for smoking status at index date and body mass index (BMI) within 1 year before to 3 months after index date. 345 incident cases of sarcoidosis and 345 controls were identified. The odds ratio of sarcoidosis comparing current smokers with never smokers adjusted for age and sex was 0.34 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.23-0.50). The odds ratio of sarcoidosis comparing current smokers with never smokers and former smokers adjusted for age and sex was 0.38 (95% CI, 0.26-0.56). The odds ratio of sarcoidosis comparing overweight subjects (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m 2 but < 30 kg/m 2 ) with subjects with normal/low BMI was 1.12 (95% CI, 0.72-1.75). The odds ratio of sarcoidosis comparing obese subjects (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m 2 ) with subjects with normal/low BMI was 2.54 (95% CI, 1.58-4.06). The odds ratio of sarcoidosis comparing obese subjects with non-obese subjects was 2.38 (95% CI, 1.60-3.56). In this population, current smokers have a lower risk of developing sarcoidosis while subjects with obesity have a higher risk of developing sarcoidosis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Is Geo-Environmental Exposure a Risk Factor for Multiple Sclerosis? A Population-Based Cross-Sectional Study in South-Western Sardinia.

PubMed

Monti, Maria Cristina; Guido, Davide; Montomoli, Cristina; Sardu, Claudia; Sanna, Alessandro; Pretti, Salvatore; Lorefice, Lorena; Marrosu, Maria Giovanna; Valera, Paolo; Cocco, Eleonora

South-Western Sardinia (SWS) is a high risk area for Multiple Sclerosis (MS) with high prevalence and spatial clustering; its population is genetically representative of Sardinians and presents a peculiar environment. We evaluated the MS environmental risk of specific heavy metals (HM) and geographical factors such as solar UV exposure and urbanization by undertaking a population-based cross-sectional study in SWS. Geochemical data on HM, UV exposure, urbanization and epidemiological MS data were available for all SWS municipalities. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was applied to the geochemical data to reduce multicollinearity and confounding criticalities. Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM) were applied to evaluate the causal effects of the potential risk factors, and a model selection was performed using Akaike Information Criterion. The PCA revealed that copper (Cu) does not cluster, while two component scores were extracted: 'basic rocks', including cobalt, chromium and nickel, and 'ore deposits', including lead and zinc. The selected multivariable GLMM highlighted Cu and sex as MS risk factors, adjusting for age and 'ore deposits'. When the Cu concentration increases by 50 ppm, the MS odds are 2.827 (95% CI: 1.645; 5.07) times higher; females have a MS odds 2.04 times (95% CI: 1.59; 2.60) higher than males. The high frequency of MS in industrialized countries, where pollution by HM and CO poisoning is widespread, suggests a relationship between environmental exposure to metals and MS. Hence, we suggested a role of Cu homeostasis in MS. This is a preliminary study aimed at generating hypotheses that will need to be confirmed further.

Prevalence of coronary artery disease risk factors in Iran: a population based survey

PubMed Central

Hatmi, ZN; Tahvildari, S; Gafarzadeh Motlag, A; Sabouri Kashani, A

2007-01-01

Background Coronary artery disease (CAD) is a leading cause of mortality, morbidity, and disability with high health care cost in Iran. It accounts for nearly 50 percent of all deaths per year. Yet little is known about CAD and CAD risk factors in the Iranian population. We aimed to assess the prevalence of different CAD risk factors in an Iranian population. Methods A descriptive cross sectional survey was conducted involving 3000 healthy adults at 18 years of age or above who were recruited with cluster random sampling. Demographic data and risk factors were determined by taking history, physical examination and laboratory tests. Results The average age was 36.23 ± 15.26. There was 1381 female (46%) and 1619 male (54%) out of which 6.3% were diabetic, 21.6% were smoker, and 15% had positive familial heart disease history. 61% had total cholesterol level > 200 mg/dL, 32% triglyceride > 200 mg/dl, 47.5% LDL-c > 130 mg/dl, 5.4% HDL-c < 35 mg/dl, 13.7% systolic blood pressure > 140 mmHg, 9.1% diastolic blood pressure > 90 mmHg and 87% of them were physically inactive. Conclusion Clinical and Para-clinical data indicated that Iranian adult population are of a high level of CAD risk factors, which may require urgent decision making to address national control measures regarding CAD. PMID:17971195

Risk factors for deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism during pregnancy or post partum: a population-based, case-control study.

PubMed

Danilenko-Dixon, D R; Heit, J A; Silverstein, M D; Yawn, B P; Petterson, T M; Lohse, C M; Melton, L J

2001-01-01

We sought to determine risk factors for deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism during pregnancy or post partum. We performed a population-based case-control study. All Olmsted County, Minnesota, residents with a first lifetime deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism during pregnancy or post partum from 1966 to 1990 were identified (N = 90). Where possible, a resident without deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism was matched to each patient by date of the first live birth after the patient's child. The medical records of all remaining patients and all control subjects were reviewed for >25 baseline characteristics, which were tested as risk factors for deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism. In multivariate analysis smoking (odds ratio, 2.4) and prior superficial vein thrombosis (odds ratio, 9.4) were independent risk factors for deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary thrombosis during pregnancy or post partum. Venous thromboembolism prophylaxis may be warranted for pregnant women with prior superficial vein thrombosis. Smoking cessation should be recommended, especially during pregnancy and the postpartum period.

A Probabilistic Model for Cushing's Syndrome Screening in At-Risk Populations: A Prospective Multicenter Study.

PubMed

León-Justel, Antonio; Madrazo-Atutxa, Ainara; Alvarez-Rios, Ana I; Infantes-Fontán, Rocio; Garcia-Arnés, Juan A; Lillo-Muñoz, Juan A; Aulinas, Anna; Urgell-Rull, Eulàlia; Boronat, Mauro; Sánchez-de-Abajo, Ana; Fajardo-Montañana, Carmen; Ortuño-Alonso, Mario; Salinas-Vert, Isabel; Granada, Maria L; Cano, David A; Leal-Cerro, Alfonso

2016-10-01

Cushing's syndrome (CS) is challenging to diagnose. Increased prevalence of CS in specific patient populations has been reported, but routine screening for CS remains questionable. To decrease the diagnostic delay and improve disease outcomes, simple new screening methods for CS in at-risk populations are needed. To develop and validate a simple scoring system to predict CS based on clinical signs and an easy-to-use biochemical test. Observational, prospective, multicenter. Referral hospital. A cohort of 353 patients attending endocrinology units for outpatient visits. All patients were evaluated with late-night salivary cortisol (LNSC) and a low-dose dexamethasone suppression test for CS. Diagnosis or exclusion of CS. Twenty-six cases of CS were diagnosed in the cohort. A risk scoring system was developed by logistic regression analysis, and cutoff values were derived from a receiver operating characteristic curve. This risk score included clinical signs and symptoms (muscular atrophy, osteoporosis, and dorsocervical fat pad) and LNSC levels. The estimated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.93, with a sensitivity of 96.2% and specificity of 82.9%. We developed a risk score to predict CS in an at-risk population. This score may help to identify at-risk patients in non-endocrinological settings such as primary care, but external validation is warranted.

Methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase polymorphisms and susceptibility to acute lymphoblastic leukemia in a Chinese population: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Xiao, Yi; Deng, Tao-Ran; Su, Chang-Liang; Shang, Zhen

2014-01-01

Although many epidemiologic studies have investigated the methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) gene polymorphisms and their association with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), definitive conclusions cannot be drawn. To clarify the effects of MTHFR polymorphisms on the risk of ALL, a meta-analysis was performed in a Chinese population. A computerized literature search was carried out in PubMed, the Chinese Biomedicine (CBM) database, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) platform, and the Wanfang database (Chinese) to collect relevant articles. A total of 11 articles including 1,738 ALL cases and 2,438 controls were included in this meta-analysis. Overall, a significantly decreased association was found between the MTHFR C677T polymorphism and ALL risk when all studies in Chinese populations were pooled into the meta-analysis. In subgroup analyses stratified by age, ethnicity, and source of controls, the same results were observed in children, in population-based studies, and in people with no stated ethnicity. However, a significantly increased association was also found for MTHFR C677T in hospital-based studies, and for MTHFR A1298C in people with no stated ethnicity. Our results suggest that the MTHFR C677T and A1298C polymorphisms may be potential biomarkers for ALL risk in Chinese populations, and studies with a larger sample size and wider population spectrum are required before definitive conclusions can be drawn. © 2014 S. Karger GmbH, Freiburg.

Cost Risk Analysis Based on Perception of the Engineering Process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dean, Edwin B.; Wood, Darrell A.; Moore, Arlene A.; Bogart, Edward H.

1986-01-01

In most cost estimating applications at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), it is desirable to present predicted cost as a range of possible costs rather than a single predicted cost. A cost risk analysis generates a range of cost for a project and assigns a probability level to each cost value in the range. Constructing a cost risk curve requires a good estimate of the expected cost of a project. It must also include a good estimate of expected variance of the cost. Many cost risk analyses are based upon an expert's knowledge of the cost of similar projects in the past. In a common scenario, a manager or engineer, asked to estimate the cost of a project in his area of expertise, will gather historical cost data from a similar completed project. The cost of the completed project is adjusted using the perceived technical and economic differences between the two projects. This allows errors from at least three sources. The historical cost data may be in error by some unknown amount. The managers' evaluation of the new project and its similarity to the old project may be in error. The factors used to adjust the cost of the old project may not correctly reflect the differences. Some risk analyses are based on untested hypotheses about the form of the statistical distribution that underlies the distribution of possible cost. The usual problem is not just to come up with an estimate of the cost of a project, but to predict the range of values into which the cost may fall and with what level of confidence the prediction is made. Risk analysis techniques that assume the shape of the underlying cost distribution and derive the risk curve from a single estimate plus and minus some amount usually fail to take into account the actual magnitude of the uncertainty in cost due to technical factors in the project itself. This paper addresses a cost risk method that is based on parametric estimates of the technical factors involved in the project being costed. The engineering

Analysis of Intervention Strategies for Inhalation Exposure to Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons and Associated Lung Cancer Risk Based on a Monte Carlo Population Exposure Assessment Model

PubMed Central

Zhou, Bin; Zhao, Bin

2014-01-01

It is difficult to evaluate and compare interventions for reducing exposure to air pollutants, including polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), a widely found air pollutant in both indoor and outdoor air. This study presents the first application of the Monte Carlo population exposure assessment model to quantify the effects of different intervention strategies on inhalation exposure to PAHs and the associated lung cancer risk. The method was applied to the population in Beijing, China, in the year 2006. Several intervention strategies were designed and studied, including atmospheric cleaning, smoking prohibition indoors, use of clean fuel for cooking, enhancing ventilation while cooking and use of indoor cleaners. Their performances were quantified by population attributable fraction (PAF) and potential impact fraction (PIF) of lung cancer risk, and the changes in indoor PAH concentrations and annual inhalation doses were also calculated and compared. The results showed that atmospheric cleaning and use of indoor cleaners were the two most effective interventions. The sensitivity analysis showed that several input parameters had major influence on the modeled PAH inhalation exposure and the rankings of different interventions. The ranking was reasonably robust for the remaining majority of parameters. The method itself can be extended to other pollutants and in different places. It enables the quantitative comparison of different intervention strategies and would benefit intervention design and relevant policy making. PMID:24416436

Analysis of intervention strategies for inhalation exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and associated lung cancer risk based on a Monte Carlo population exposure assessment model.

PubMed

Zhou, Bin; Zhao, Bin

2014-01-01

It is difficult to evaluate and compare interventions for reducing exposure to air pollutants, including polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), a widely found air pollutant in both indoor and outdoor air. This study presents the first application of the Monte Carlo population exposure assessment model to quantify the effects of different intervention strategies on inhalation exposure to PAHs and the associated lung cancer risk. The method was applied to the population in Beijing, China, in the year 2006. Several intervention strategies were designed and studied, including atmospheric cleaning, smoking prohibition indoors, use of clean fuel for cooking, enhancing ventilation while cooking and use of indoor cleaners. Their performances were quantified by population attributable fraction (PAF) and potential impact fraction (PIF) of lung cancer risk, and the changes in indoor PAH concentrations and annual inhalation doses were also calculated and compared. The results showed that atmospheric cleaning and use of indoor cleaners were the two most effective interventions. The sensitivity analysis showed that several input parameters had major influence on the modeled PAH inhalation exposure and the rankings of different interventions. The ranking was reasonably robust for the remaining majority of parameters. The method itself can be extended to other pollutants and in different places. It enables the quantitative comparison of different intervention strategies and would benefit intervention design and relevant policy making.

Exposure to pesticide as a risk factor for depression: A population-based longitudinal study in Korea.

PubMed

Koh, Sang-Baek; Kim, Tae Hui; Min, Seongho; Lee, Kyungsuk; Kang, Dae Ryong; Choi, Jung Ran

2017-09-01

Exposure to pesticides is associated with mental disorders, including depression, especially among occupationally exposed populations, such as farmers. The results of experimental studies ascribed the negative effects of pesticides on mental health to their neurotoxic and endocrine-disrupting activities. This study aimed to investigate the association between the risk of depression and high- or low-level exposure to pesticides in a rural population. This longitudinal study was performed in 2005-2008 (baseline) and 2008-2012 (follow-up) to evaluate the risk of depression among 2151 Korean adults. A standardized questionnaire was used to obtain information on depression upon self-reported exposure to pesticide based on the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale. Logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate the association between pesticide exposure and depression. We adjusted the data for age, cigarette smoking status, current alcohol use, monthly income, educational level, marriage status, and religion. Among the individuals who reported depression, the number of participants who used pesticides was significantly higher than that who did not (N=61 [7.2%] vs. N=54 [4.2%], P=0.003). A positive association was noted between >20-year period of pesticide use and depression (odds ratio [OR], 2.35; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.41-3.88). Individuals who reported depression showed greater odds of being exposed to higher pesticide concentrations (OR, 2.33; 95% CI, 1.40-3.88) and experiencing pesticide poisoning (OR, 5.83; 95% CI, 1.80-18.86) than those who did not. Exposure to pesticides at a high concentration was found to be associated with depressive symptoms among Korean adults. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Use of antiepileptic drugs during pregnancy and risk of spontaneous abortion and stillbirth: population based cohort study

PubMed Central

Kjaersgaard, Maiken Ina Siegismund; Pedersen, Henrik Søndergaard; Howards, Penelope P; Sørensen, Merete Juul; Olsen, Jørn; Parner, Erik Thorlund; Pedersen, Lars Henning; Vestergaard, Mogens; Christensen, Jakob

2014-01-01

Objective To determine whether use of antiepileptic drugs during pregnancy may increase the risk of spontaneous abortion or stillbirth. Design Population based cohort study. Setting Register based study in Denmark, 1997-2008. Participants 983 305 pregnancies identified in the Danish medical birth register and the Danish national hospital discharge register from 1 February 1997 to 31 December 2008 were linked to the Danish Register of Medicinal Product Statistics to obtain information on use of antiepileptic drugs. Main outcome measures Risk ratio of spontaneous abortion and stillbirth after use of antiepileptic drugs during pregnancy, estimated by using binomial regression adjusting for potential confounders of maternal age, cohabitation, income, education, history of severe mental disorder, and history of drug misuse. Results Antiepileptic drugs were used in a total of 4700 (0.5%) pregnancies. 16 out of 100 pregnant women using antiepileptics and 13 out of 100 pregnant women not using antiepileptics experienced a spontaneous abortion. After adjusting for potential confounders pregnant women using antiepileptics had a 13% higher risk of spontaneous abortions than pregnant women not using antiepileptics (adjusted risk ratio 1.13, 95% confidence interval 1.04 to 1.24). However, the risk of spontaneous abortion was not increased in women with an epilepsy diagnosis (0.98, 0.87 to 1.09), only in women without a diagnosis of epilepsy (1.30, 1.14 to 1.49). In an analysis including women with at least two pregnancies with discordant antiepileptic drug use (for example, use in the first pregnancy but not in the second), the adjusted hazard ratio for spontaneous abortion was 0.83 (0.69 to 1.00) for exposed pregnancies compared with unexposed pregnancies. Stillbirth was identified in 18 women who used antiepileptic drugs (unadjusted risk ratio 1.29, 0.80 to 2.10). Conclusion Among women with epilepsy and when analysing the risk in antiepileptic drug discordant pregnancies

Use of antiepileptic drugs during pregnancy and risk of spontaneous abortion and stillbirth: population based cohort study.

PubMed

Bech, Bodil Hammer; Kjaersgaard, Maiken Ina Siegismund; Pedersen, Henrik Søndergaard; Howards, Penelope P; Sørensen, Merete Juul; Olsen, Jørn; Parner, Erik Thorlund; Pedersen, Lars Henning; Vestergaard, Mogens; Christensen, Jakob

2014-08-21

To determine whether use of antiepileptic drugs during pregnancy may increase the risk of spontaneous abortion or stillbirth. Population based cohort study. Register based study in Denmark, 1997-2008. 983,305 pregnancies identified in the Danish medical birth register and the Danish national hospital discharge register from 1 February 1997 to 31 December 2008 were linked to the Danish Register of Medicinal Product Statistics to obtain information on use of antiepileptic drugs. Risk ratio of spontaneous abortion and stillbirth after use of antiepileptic drugs during pregnancy, estimated by using binomial regression adjusting for potential confounders of maternal age, cohabitation, income, education, history of severe mental disorder, and history of drug misuse. Antiepileptic drugs were used in a total of 4700 (0.5%) pregnancies. 16 out of 100 pregnant women using antiepileptics and 13 out of 100 pregnant women not using antiepileptics experienced a spontaneous abortion. After adjusting for potential confounders pregnant women using antiepileptics had a 13% higher risk of spontaneous abortions than pregnant women not using antiepileptics (adjusted risk ratio 1.13, 95% confidence interval 1.04 to 1.24). However, the risk of spontaneous abortion was not increased in women with an epilepsy diagnosis (0.98, 0.87 to 1.09), only in women without a diagnosis of epilepsy (1.30, 1.14 to 1.49). In an analysis including women with at least two pregnancies with discordant antiepileptic drug use (for example, use in the first pregnancy but not in the second), the adjusted hazard ratio for spontaneous abortion was 0.83 (0.69 to 1.00) for exposed pregnancies compared with unexposed pregnancies. Stillbirth was identified in 18 women who used antiepileptic drugs (unadjusted risk ratio 1.29, 0.80 to 2.10). Among women with epilepsy and when analysing the risk in antiepileptic drug discordant pregnancies in the same woman, we found no overall association between the use of

Understanding risk and protective factors for child maltreatment: the value of integrated, population-based data.

PubMed

Putnam-Hornstein, Emily; Needell, Barbara; Rhodes, Anne E

2013-01-01

In this article, we argue for expanded efforts to integrate administrative data systems as a "practical strategy" for developing a richer understanding of child abuse and neglect. Although the study of child maltreatment is often critiqued for being atheoretical, we believe that a more pressing concern is the absence of population-based and prospective epidemiological data that can be used to better understand the distribution and interacting nature of risk and protective factors for maltreatment. We begin by briefly addressing the relevance of empirical observations to etiological theories of child maltreatment. Although the latter is widely cited as critical to the development of effective prevention and intervention responses, less attention has been paid to the role of population-based data in the development of theories relevant to highly applied research questions such as those pertaining to child abuse and neglect. We then discuss how child protection data, in isolation, translates into a relatively narrow range of questions that can be asked and answered, with an inherently pathology-focused construction of risks and little attention paid to strengths or protective factors. We next turn to examples of recent findings--spanning multiple countries--emerging from information integrated across data systems, concluding by calling for expanded administrative data linkages in an effort to better understand and prevent child maltreatment. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Is Statin Use Associated With Tendon Rupture? A Population-Based Retrospective Cohort Analysis.

PubMed

Contractor, Tahmeed; Beri, Abhimanyu; Gardiner, Joseph C; Tang, Xiaoqin; Dwamena, Francesca C

2015-01-01

Previous case reports and small studies have suggested that 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl-CoA reductase inhibitors (HMG-CoA-Is) may increase the risk of tendon rupture. We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort evaluation to better assess this relationship. From approximately 800,000 enrollees of a private insurance database, those who were aged ≤64 years with at least 1 year of continuous enrollment were selected. Exposure was defined as initiation of HMG-CoA-I after the beginning of the study period. Each exposed person was matched with 2 controls of similar age and gender. Baseline characteristics, including known risk factors for tendon rupture, were compared between exposed and control cohorts with fidelity to the study's matched design. After adjusting for differences in follow-up and baseline characteristics, incidence rate ratios for tendon rupture was assessed in HMG-CoA-I users and nonusers. A total of 34,749 exposed patients were matched with 69,498 controls. There was no difference in the occurrence of tendon ruptures in HMG-CoA-I users versus nonusers. The results remained unchanged after adjustment for age and gender. In conclusion, this population-based retrospective cohort evaluation suggests that use of HMG-CoA-Is as a group are not associated with tendon rupture.

A meta-analysis of multiple myeloma risk regions in African and European ancestry populations identifies putatively functional loci

PubMed Central

Rand, Kristin A.; Song, Chi; Dean, Eric; Serie, Daniel J.; Curtin, Karen; Sheng, Xin; Hu, Donglei; Huff, Carol Ann; Bernal-Mizrachi, Leon; Tomasson, Michael H.; Ailawadhi, Sikander; Singhal, Seema; Pawlish, Karen; Peters, Edward S.; Bock, Cathryn H.; Stram, Alex; Van Den Berg, David J; Edlund, Christopher K.; V.Conti, David; Zimmerman, Todd; Hwang, Amie E.; Huntsman, Scott; Graff, John; Nooka, Ajay; Kong, Yinfei; Pregja, Silvana L.; Berndt, Sonja I.; Blot, William J.; Carpten, John; Casey, Graham; Chu, Lisa; Diver, W. Ryan; Stevens, Victoria L.; Lieber, Michael R.; Goodman, Phyllis J.; Hennis, Anselm J.M.; Hsing, Ann W.; Mehta, Jayesh; Kittles, Rick A.; Kolb, Suzanne; Klein, Eric A.; Leske, Cristina; Murphy, Adam B.; Nemesure, Barbara; Neslund-Dudas, Christine; Strom, Sara S.; Vij, Ravi; Rybicki, Benjamin A.; Stanford, Janet L.; Signorello, Lisa B.; Witte, John S.; Ambrosone, Christine B.; Bhatti, Parveen; John, Esther M.; Bernstein, Leslie; Zheng, Wei; Olshan, Andrew F.; Hu, Jennifer J.; Ziegler, Regina G.; Nyante, Sarah J.; Bandera, Elisa V.; Birmann, Brenda M.; Ingles, Sue A.; Press, Michael F.; Atanackovic, Djordje; Glenn, Martha J.; Cannon-Albright, Lisa A.; Jones, Brandt; Tricot, Guido; Martin, Thomas G.; Kumar, Shaji K.; Wolf, Jeffrey L.; Deming, Sandra L.; Rothman, Nathaniel; Brooks-Wilson, Angela R.; Rajkumar, S. Vincent; Kolonel, Laurence N.; Chanock, Stephen J.; Slager, Susan L.; Severson, Richard K.; Janakiraman, Nalini; Terebelo, Howard R.; Brown, Elizabeth E.; De Roos, Anneclaire J.; Mohrbacher, Ann F.; Colditz, Graham A.; Giles, Graham G.; Spinelli, John J.; Chiu, Brian C.; Munshi, Nikhil C.; Anderson, Kenneth C.; Levy, Joan; Zonder, Jeffrey A.; Orlowski, Robert Z.; Lonial, Sagar; Camp, Nicola J.; Vachon, Celine M.; Ziv, Elad; Stram, Daniel O.; Hazelett, Dennis J.; Haiman, Christopher A.; Cozen, Wendy

2017-01-01

Background Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in European populations have identified genetic risk variants associated with multiple myeloma (MM). Methods We performed association testing of common variation in eight regions in 1,264 MM patients and 1,479 controls of European ancestry (EA) and 1,305 MM patients and 7,078 controls of African ancestry (AA) and conducted a meta-analysis to localize the signals, with epigenetic annotation used to predict functionality. Results We found that variants in 7p15.3, 17p11.2, 22q13.1 were statistically significantly (p<0.05) associated with MM risk in AAs and EAs and the variant in 3p22.1 was associated in EAs only. In a combined AA-EA meta-analysis, variation in five regions (2p23.3, 3p22.1, 7p15.3, 17p11.2, 22q13.1) was statistically signficantly associated with MM risk. In 3p22.1, the correlated variants clustered within the gene body of ULK4. Correlated variants in 7p15.3 clustered around an enhancer at the 3′ end of the CDCA7L transcription termination site. A missense variant at 17p11.2 (rs34562254, Pro251Leu, OR=1.32, p=2.93×10−7) in TNFRSF13B, encodes a lymphocyte-specific protein in the tumor necrosis factor receptor family that interacts with the NF-κB pathway. SNPs correlated with the index signal in 22q13.1 cluster around the promoter and enhancer regions of CBX7. Conclusions We found that reported MM susceptibility regions contain risk variants important across populations supporting the use of multiple racial/ethnic groups with different underlying genetic architecture to enhance the localization and identification of putatively functional alleles. Impact A subset of reported risk loci for multiple myeloma have consistent affects across populations and are likely to be functional. PMID:27587788

Population genetics-informed meta-analysis in seven genes associated with risk to dengue fever disease.

PubMed

Oliveira, Marisa; Saraiva, Diana P; Cavadas, Bruno; Fernandes, Verónica; Pedro, Nicole; Casademont, Isabelle; Koeth, Fanny; Alshamali, Farida; Harich, Nourdin; Cherni, Lotfi; Sierra, Beatriz; Guzman, Maria G; Sakuntabhai, Anavaj; Pereira, Luisa

2018-04-17

Population genetics theory predicted that rare frequent markers would be the main contributors for heritability of complex diseases, but meta-analyses of genome-wide association studies are revealing otherwise common markers, present in all population groups, as the identified candidate genes. In this work, we applied a population-genetics informed meta-analysis to 10 markers located in seven genes said to be associated with dengue fever disease. Seven markers (in PLCE1, CD32, CD209, OAS1 and OAS3 genes) have high-frequency and the other three (in MICB and TNFA genes) have intermediate frequency. Most of these markers have high discriminatory power between population groups, but their frequencies follow the rules of genetic drift, and seem to have not been under strong selective pressure. There was a good agreement in directional consistency across trans-ethnic association signals, in East Asian and Latin American cohorts, with heterogeneity generated by randomness between studies and especially by low sample sizes. This led to confirm the following significant associations: with DF, odds ratio of 0.67 for TNFA-rs1800629-A; with DHF, 0.82 for CD32-rs1801274-G; with DSS, 0.55 for OAS3-rs2285933-G, 0.80 for PLCE1-rs2274223-G and 1.32 for MICB-rs3132468-C. The overall genetic risks confirmed sub-Saharan African populations and descendants as the best protected against the severer forms of the disease, while Southeast and Northeast Asians are the least protected ones. European and close neighbours are the best protected against dengue fever, while, again, Southeast and Northeast Asians are the least protected ones. These risk scores provide important predictive information for the largely naïve European and North American regions, as well as for Africa where misdiagnosis with other hemorrhagic diseases is of concern. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.