Early-Holocene decoupled summer temperature and monsoon precipitation in southwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, D.; Chen, F.; Chen, X.; Lv, F.; Zhou, A.; Chen, J.; Abbott, M. B.; Yu, J.

2017-12-01

Proxy based reconstructions of Holocene temperature have shown that both the timing and magnitude of the thermal maximum vary substantially between different regions; the simulations results from climate models also show that summers were substantially cooler over regions directly influenced by the presence of the Laurentide ice sheet during the early Holocene, whereas other regions of the Northern Hemisphere were dominated by orbital forcing. However, for lack of summer temperature reconstruction in the low latitude regions like southwestern China dominated by the Indian summer monsoon, the Holocene summer temperature variations and it underlying forcing mechanism are ambiguous. Here we present a well-dated record of pollen-based quantitative summer temperature (mean July; MJT) over the last 14000 years from Xingyun Lake, Yunnan Province, southwest China. It was found that MJT decreased during the YD event, then increased slowly until 7400 yr BP, and decreased thereafter. The MJT shows a pattern with middle Holocene maximum of MJT, indicating a different changing pattern with the carbonate oxygen isotope record (d18O) from the same core during the early Holocene (11500-7400 yr BP), which has the similar variation with speleothem d18O record from Dongge cave, both indicate the variation of monsoon precipitation with the highest precipitation occurred during the early Holocene. Therefore, we propose that the variation of summer temperature and precipitation in southwest China was decoupled during the early Holocene. However, both MJT and monsoon precipitation decreased after the middle Holocene following the boreal summer insolation. We suggest that the high precipitation with strong summer monsoon and hence higher cloud cover may depress the temperature increasing forced by increasing summer insolation during the early Holocene; while melting ice-sheet in the high latitude regions had strongly influenced the summer temperature increase during the deglacial period

Identification of tipping elements of the Indian Summer Monsoon using climate network approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stolbova, Veronika; Surovyatkina, Elena; Kurths, Jurgen

2015-04-01

Spatial and temporal variability of the rainfall is a vital question for more than one billion of people inhabiting the Indian subcontinent. Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall is crucial for India's economy, social welfare, and environment and large efforts are being put into predicting the Indian Summer Monsoon. For predictability of the ISM, it is crucial to identify tipping elements - regions over the Indian subcontinent which play a key role in the spatial organization of the Indian monsoon system. Here, we use climate network approach for identification of such tipping elements of the ISM. First, we build climate networks of the extreme rainfall, surface air temperature and pressure over the Indian subcontinent for pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. We construct network of extreme rainfall event using observational satellite data from 1998 to 2012 from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM 3B42V7) and reanalysis gridded daily rainfall data for a time period of 57 years (1951-2007) (Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards the Evaluation of Water Resources, APHRODITE). For the network of surface air temperature and pressure fields, we use re-analysis data provided by the National Center for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR). Second, we filter out data by coarse-graining the network through network measures, and identify tipping regions of the ISM. Finally, we compare obtained results of the network analysis with surface wind fields and show that occurrence of the tipping elements is mostly caused by monsoonal wind circulation, migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and Westerlies. We conclude that climate network approach enables to select the most informative regions for the ISM, providing realistic description of the ISM dynamics with fewer data, and also help to identify tipping regions of the ISM. Obtained tipping elements deserve a

Multifaceted intra-seasonal modes over the East Asia-western North Pacific summer monsoon region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ha, K. J.; Oh, H.

2017-12-01

Intra-seasonal monsoon prediction is the most imperative task due to high impact on 2/3 of world populations' daily life, but there remains an enduring challenge in climate science. The present study aims to provide a physical understanding of the sources for prediction of dominant intra-seasonal modes in the East Asian-western North Pacific summer monsoon (EA-WNPSM): preMeiyu&Baiu, Changma&Meiyu, WNPSM, and monsoon gyre modes classified by the self-organizing map analysis. The preMeiyu-Baiu mode is strongly linked to both the anomalous low-level convergence and vertical wind shear through baroclinic instability, and the Changma&Meiyu mode has a strengthened tropic-subtropics connection along the western north Pacific subtropical high, which induces vertical destabilization and strong convective instability. The WNPSM and monsoon gyre modes are characterized by anomalous southeasterly flow of warm and moist air from western north Pacific monsoon, and low-level easterly flow, respectively. Prominent difference in response to the ENSO leads to different effects of the Indian Ocean and western Pacific thermal state, and consequently, the distinct moisture supply and instability variations for the EASM intra-seasonal modes. We attempt to determine the predictability sources for the four modes in the EA-WNPSM using physical-empirical model. The selected predictors are based on the persistent and tendency signals of the SST/2m air temperature and sea level pressure fields, which reflect the asymmetric response to the ENSO and the ocean and land surface anomalous conditions. For the preMeiyu&Baiu mode, the SST cooling tendency over the WNP, which persists into summer, is the distinguishing contributor which is causative of north-south thermal contrast. Since the Changma&Meiyu mode is strongly related to the WNP subtropical high, a major precursor is the persistent SST difference between the Indian Ocean and the western Pacific. The WNPSM mode is mostly affected by the

Why the Australian Monsoon Strengthened During the Cold Last Glacial Maximum?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, M.; Wang, B.; Liu, J.; Ning, L.

2017-12-01

The multi-model ensemble simulation suggests that the global monsoon and most sub-monsoons are weakened during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) due to the lower green-house gases concentration, the presence of the ice-sheets and the weakened seasonal distribution of insolation. In contrast, the Australian monsoon is strengthened during the LGM. The precipitation there increases in austral summer and decreases in austral winter, so that the annual range or monsoonality increases. The strengthened monsoonality is mainly due to the decreased precipitation in austral winter, which is primarily caused by circulation changes, although the reduced atmospheric water vapor also has a moderate contribution. On the other hand, the strengthened Australian summer monsoon rainfall is likely caused by the change of land-sea thermal contrast due to the alteration of land-sea configuration and by the asymmetric change in sea surface temperature (SST) over Indo-Pacific warm pool region. The strengthened land-sea thermal contrast and Western Pacific-Eastern Indian Ocean thermal gradients in the pre-summer monsoon season triggers a cyclonic wind anomaly that is maintained to the monsoon season, thereby increasing summer precipitation. The increased summer precipitation is associated with the increased cloud cover over the land and decreased cloud cover over the ocean. This may weaken the land-sea thermal contrast, which agrees with the paleoclimate reconstruction. The biases between different models are likely related to the different responses of SST over the North Atlantic Ocean in the pre-summer monsoon season.

The Evolution of Tropospheric Temperature Field and its Relationship With The Onset of Asian Summer Monsoon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

He, H.; Sui, C-H.; Jian, M.; Wen, Z.

2000-01-01

The mean state and year-to-year variations of the tropospheric temperature fields and their relationship with the establishment of the summertime East Asian monsoon (EAM) and the Indian monsoon (INM) are studied using the NCEP reanalysis data of 15 years (1982-1996). The results show that the seasonal shift of the South Asian High in the upper troposphere and the establishment of the EAM and the INM are closely related to the seasonal warming which causes a reversal of the meridional gradient of upper tropospheric mean temperature over the monsoon regions. On the average of 15 years, the reversal time of the temperature gradient in the EAM region (INM region) is concurrent with (one pentad earlier than) the onset time of the summer monsoon. In most years of the 15-year period, the reversal of temperature gradient coincides or precedes the onset time of the summer monsoon in both the EAM region and the INM region. The results suggest an important role of thermal processes on the establishment of the Asian monsoon. The contributors to the upper tropospheric warming over the EAM region are the strong horizontal warm advection and the diabetic heating against the adiabatic cooling due to upward motion. In the INM region, strong adiabatic heating by subsidence and the diabetic heating are major warming processes against the strong horizontal cold advection related to the persistent northwestlies to the southwestern periphery of the Tibetan Plateau. It appears that the early or late establishment of the Asian summer monsoon is not directly related to the differential warming near the surface.

Possible impacts of the pre-monsoon dry line and sea breeze front on nocturnal rainfall over northeast Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stiller-Reeve, Mathew; Toniazzo, Thomas; Kolstad, Erik; Spengler, Thomas

2017-04-01

The northeast region of Bangladesh receives a large amount of rainfall before the large-scale monsoon circulation begins. For example, in April (a "pre-monsoon" month) 2010, 804 mm of rain fell in the regional capital Sylhet. It was the second wettest month of the entire year. From our conversations with the local people, we know that this pre-monsoon rainfall is extremely important to their livelihoods. We therefore need to understand it's triggering mechanisms. Several theories have been published, all of which are likely to be at play. However, in this work we look more closely at how the sea breeze front and prominent pre-monsoonal dry line in this region may play a role. If these mechanisms play a role in the convection, then it is likely that they trigger convection further afield, and then the resulting systems then propagate towards northeast Bangladesh. We believe this because rainfall associated with dry line/sea-breeze front convection often occurs during the late afternoon, but the rainfall over northeast Bangladesh shows a clear late-night/early-morning maxima. At present, the temporal and spatial resolution of the regional observations is inappropriate for examining these possible mechanisms. We therefore use a numerical model (WRF) to investigate the possible links between the convection and the sea breeze front and dry line. We use April 2010 as a case study since it was such a wet pre-monsoon month. The simulation shows that a sea breeze circulation often develops during the day in the coastal zone of Bangladesh and northeast India. After sunset the sea breeze front propagates inland pushing back the hot, dry air over India. On several days during the simulation, convection is triggered along the sea breeze front, which then propagates towards northeast Bangladesh and intensifies across the topography surrounding the Sylhet region. From our simulations, it appears that nocturnal convection over northeast Bangladesh is triggered by several

Vertical Distribution of Temperature in Transitional Season II and West Monsoon in Western Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pranoto, Hikari A. H.; Kunarso; Soeyanto, Endro

2018-02-01

Western Pacific is the water mass intersection from both the Northern Pacific and Southern Pacific ocean. The Western Pacific ocean is warm pool area which formed by several warm surface currents. As a warm pool area and also the water mass intersection, western Pacific ocean becomes an interesting study area. The object of this study is to describe the temperature vertical distribution by mooring buoy and temporally in transitional season II (September - November 2014) and west monsoon (December 2014 - February 2015) in Western Pacific. Vertical temperature and wind speed data that was used in this study was recorded by INA-TRITON mooring instrument and obtained from Laboratory of Marine Survey, BPPT. Supporting data of this study was wind vector data from ECMWF to observe the relation between temperature distribution and monsoon. The quantitative approach was used in this study by processing temperature and wind data from INA-TRITON and interpreted graphically. In the area of study, it was found that in transitional season II the range of sea surface temperature to 500-meter depth was about 8.29 - 29.90 °C while in west monsoon was 8.12 - 29.45 °C. According to the research result, the sea SST of western Pacific ocean was related to monsoonal change with SST and wind speed correlation coefficient was 0.78. While the deep layer temperature was affected by water mass flow which passes through the western Pacific Ocean.

Monthly monsoon rainfall forecasting using artificial neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganti, Ravikumar

2014-10-01

Indian agriculture sector heavily depends on monsoon rainfall for successful harvesting. In the past, prediction of rainfall was mainly performed using regression models, which provide reasonable accuracy in the modelling and forecasting of complex physical systems. Recently, Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been proposed as efficient tools for modelling and forecasting. A feed-forward multi-layer perceptron type of ANN architecture trained using the popular back-propagation algorithm was employed in this study. Other techniques investigated for modeling monthly monsoon rainfall include linear and non-linear regression models for comparison purposes. The data employed in this study include monthly rainfall and monthly average of the daily maximum temperature in the North Central region in India. Specifically, four regression models and two ANN model's were developed. The performance of various models was evaluated using a wide variety of standard statistical parameters and scatter plots. The results obtained in this study for forecasting monsoon rainfalls using ANNs have been encouraging. India's economy and agricultural activities can be effectively managed with the help of the availability of the accurate monsoon rainfall forecasts.

Astronomical and Hydrological Perspective of Mountain Impacts on the Asian Summer Monsoon.

PubMed

He, Bian; Wu, Guoxiong; Liu, Yimin; Bao, Qing

2015-12-01

The Asian summer monsoon has great socioeconomic impacts. Understanding how the huge Tibetan and Iranian Plateaus affect the Asian summer monsoon is of great scientific value and has far-reaching significance for sustainable global development. One hypothesis considers the plateaus to be a shield for monsoon development in India by blocking cold-dry northerly intrusion into the tropics. Based on astronomical radiation analysis and numerical modeling, here we show that in winter the plateaus cannot block such a northerly intrusion; while in summer the daily solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface, and the surface potential temperature to the north of the Tibetan Plateau, are higher than their counterparts to its south, and such plateau shielding is not needed. By virtue of hydrological analysis, we show that the high energy near the surface required for continental monsoon development is maintained mainly by high water vapor content. Results based on potential vorticity-potential temperature diagnosis further demonstrate that it is the pumping of water vapor from sea to land due to the thermal effects of the plateaus that breeds the Asian continental monsoon.

Tohono O'odham Monsoon Climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ackerman, G.

2006-12-01

The North American monsoon is a summertime weather phenomenon that develops over the southwestern North America. For thousands of years the Tohono O'odham people of this area have depended on the associated rainy season (Jukiabig Masad) to grow traditional crops using runoff agriculture. Today, the high incidence of Type II diabetes among native people has prompted many to return to their traditional agricultural diets. Local monsoon onset dates and the North American Regional Reanalysis dataset were used to develop a 24-year Tohono O'odham Nation (TON) monsoon and pre-monsoon climatology that can be used as a tool for planning runoff agriculture. Using monsoon composite datasets, temporal and spatial correlations between antecedent period meteorological variables, monsoon onset dates and total monsoon precipitation were examined to identify variables that could be useful in predicting the onset and intensity of the monsoon. The results suggest additional research is needed to identify variables related to monsoon onset and intensity.

Leaf unfolding of Tibetan alpine meadows captures the arrival of monsoon rainfall

PubMed Central

Li, Ruicheng; Luo, Tianxiang; Mölg, Thomas; Zhao, Jingxue; Li, Xiang; Cui, Xiaoyong; Du, Mingyuan; Tang, Yanhong

2016-01-01

The alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau is the highest and largest pasture in the world, and its formation and distribution are mainly controlled by Indian summer monsoon effects. However, little is known about how monsoon-related cues may trigger spring phenology of the vast alpine vegetation. Based on the 7-year observations with fenced and transplanted experiments across lower to upper limits of Kobresia meadows in the central plateau (4400–5200 m), we found that leaf unfolding dates of dominant sedge and grass species synchronized with monsoon onset, regardless of air temperature. We also found similar patterns in a 22-year data set from the northeast plateau. In the monsoon-related cues for leaf unfolding, the arrival of monsoon rainfall is crucial, while seasonal air temperatures are already continuously above 0 °C. In contrast, the early-emerging cushion species generally leafed out earlier in warmer years regardless of precipitation. Our data provide evidence that leaf unfolding of dominant species in the alpine meadows senses the arrival of monsoon-season rainfall. These findings also provide a basis for interpreting the spatially variable greening responses to warming detected in the world’s highest pasture, and suggest a phenological strategy for avoiding damages of pre-monsoon drought and frost to alpine plants. PMID:26856260

On the dominant intra-seasonal modes over the East Asia-western North Pacific summer monsoon region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ha, Kyung-Ja; Oh, Hyoeun

2017-04-01

Intra-seasonal monsoon prediction is the most imperative task due to high impact on 2/3 of world populations' daily life, but there remains an enduring challenge in climate science. The present study aims to provide a physical understanding of the sources for prediction of dominant intra-seasonal modes in the East Asian-western North Pacific summer monsoon (EA-WNPSM): preMeiyu&Baiu, Changma&Meiyu, WNPSM, and monsoon gyre modes classified by the self-organizing map analysis. The major modes tend to be dominated by the moisture convergence of the moisture budget equation along the rain-band. The preMeiyu-Baiu mode is strongly linked to both the anomalous low-level convergence and vertical wind shear through baroclinic instability, and the Changma&Meiyu mode has a strengthened tropic-subtropics connection along the western north Pacific subtropical high, which induces vertical destabilization and strong convective instability. The WNPSM and monsoon gyre modes are characterized by anomalous southeasterly flow of warm and moist air from western north Pacific monsoon, and low-level easterly flow, respectively. Prominent difference in response to the ENSO leads to different effects of the Indian Ocean and western Pacific thermal state, and consequently, the distinct moisture supply and instability variations for the EASM intra-seasonal modes. We discuss the major driving forces of sub-seasonal variability over EA-WNPSM regions. Lastly we attempted to determine the predictability sources for the four modes in the EA-WNPSM. The selected predictors are based on the persistent and tendency signals of the SST/2m air temperature and sea level pressure fields, which reflect the asymmetric response to the ENSO and the ocean and land surface anomalous conditions. For the preMeiyu&Baiu mode, the SST cooling tendency over the WNP, which persists into summer, is the distinguishing contributor that results in strong baroclinic instability. A major precursor for the Changma&Meiyu mode

Energetics and monsoon bifurcations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seshadri, Ashwin K.

2017-01-01

Monsoons involve increases in dry static energy (DSE), with primary contributions from increased shortwave radiation and condensation of water vapor, compensated by DSE export via horizontal fluxes in monsoonal circulations. We introduce a simple box-model characterizing evolution of the DSE budget to study nonlinear dynamics of steady-state monsoons. Horizontal fluxes of DSE are stabilizing during monsoons, exporting DSE and hence weakening the monsoonal circulation. By contrast latent heat addition (LHA) due to condensation of water vapor destabilizes, by increasing the DSE budget. These two factors, horizontal DSE fluxes and LHA, are most strongly dependent on the contrast in tropospheric mean temperature between land and ocean. For the steady-state DSE in the box-model to be stable, the DSE flux should depend more strongly on the temperature contrast than LHA; stronger circulation then reduces DSE and thereby restores equilibrium. We present conditions for this to occur. The main focus of the paper is describing conditions for bifurcation behavior of simple models. Previous authors presented a minimal model of abrupt monsoon transitions and argued that such behavior can be related to a positive feedback called the `moisture advection feedback'. However, by accounting for the effect of vertical lapse rate of temperature on the DSE flux, we show that bifurcations are not a generic property of such models despite these fluxes being nonlinear in the temperature contrast. We explain the origin of this behavior and describe conditions for a bifurcation to occur. This is illustrated for the case of the July-mean monsoon over India. The default model with mean parameter estimates does not contain a bifurcation, but the model admits bifurcation as parameters are varied.

Features of clouds and convection during the pre- and post-onset periods of the Asian summer monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yi; Wang, Chenghai

2016-02-01

The statistical characteristics of the vertical structure of clouds in the Asian summer monsoon region are investigated using two CloudSat standard products (Geometrical Profiling Product (GEOPROF) and GEOPROF-lidar) during the pre- and post-onset periods of the Asian summer monsoon, from April to August in 2007-2010. The characteristics of the vertical structure of clouds are analyzed and compared for different underlying surfaces in four subregions during this period. Also analyzed are the evolution of precipitation and hydrometeors with the northward advance of the Asian summer monsoon, and different hydrometeor characteristics attributed to the underlying surface features. The results indicate that the vertical cloud amounts increase significantly after the summer monsoon onset; this increase occurs first in the upper troposphere and then at lower altitudes over tropical regions (South Asian and tropical Northwest Pacific regions). The heights of the cloud top ascend, and the vertical height between the top and the base of the whole cloud increases. Single-layer (SL) and double-layer (DL) hydrometeors contribute over half and one third of the cloudiness in these 5 months (April to August), respectively. The multilayer frequencies increase in four different regions, and cloud layer depths (CLD) increase after the summer monsoon onset. These changes are stronger in tropical regions than in subtropical regions, while the vertical distance between cloud layers (VDCL) deceases in tropical regions and increases in subtropical regions.

The Aerosol-Monsoon Climate System of Asia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Kyu-Myong, Kim

2012-01-01

In Asian monsoon countries such as China and India, human health and safety problems caused by air-pollution are worsening due to the increased loading of atmospheric pollutants stemming from rising energy demand associated with the rapid pace of industrialization and modernization. Meanwhile, uneven distribution of monsoon rain associated with flash flood or prolonged drought, has caused major loss of human lives, and damages in crop and properties with devastating societal impacts on Asian countries. Historically, air-pollution and monsoon research are treated as separate problems. However a growing number of recent studies have suggested that the two problems may be intrinsically intertwined and need to be studied jointly. Because of complexity of the dynamics of the monsoon systems, aerosol impacts on monsoons and vice versa must be studied and understood in the context of aerosol forcing in relationship to changes in fundamental driving forces of the monsoon climate system (e.g. sea surface temperature, land-sea contrast etc.) on time scales from intraseasonal variability (weeks) to climate change ( multi-decades). Indeed, because of the large contributions of aerosols to the global and regional energy balance of the atmosphere and earth surface, and possible effects of the microphysics of clouds and precipitation, a better understanding of the response to climate change in Asian monsoon regions requires that aerosols be considered as an integral component of a fully coupled aerosol-monsoon system on all time scales. In this paper, using observations and results from climate modeling, we will discuss the coherent variability of the coupled aerosol-monsoon climate system in South Asia and East Asia, including aerosol distribution and types, with respect to rainfall, moisture, winds, land-sea thermal contrast, heat sources and sink distributions in the atmosphere in seasonal, interannual to climate change time scales. We will show examples of how elevated

Impacts of snow darkening by absorbing aerosols on South Asian monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, K. M.; Lau, W. K. M.; Kim, M. K.; Sang, J.; Yasunari, T. J.; Koster, R. D.

2016-12-01

Seasonal heating over the Tibetan Plateau is a main driver of the onset of the South Asian Monsoon. Aerosols can play an important role in pre- and early monsoon seasonal heating process over the Tibetan Plateau by increasing atmospheric heating in the northern India, and by heating of the surface of the Tibetan Plateau and Himalayan slopes, via reduction of albedo of the snow surface through surface deposition - the so call snow-darkening effect (SDE). To examine the impact of SDE on weather and climate during late spring and early summer, two sets of NASA/GEOS-5 model simulations with and without SDE are conducted. Results show that SDE-induced surface heating accelerates snow melts and increases surface temperature over 4K in the entire Tibetan Plateau regions during boreal summer. Warmer Tibetan Plateau further accelerates seasonal warming in the upper troposphere and increases the north-south temperature gradient between the Tibetan Plateau and the equatorial Indian Ocean. This reversal of the north-south temperature gradient is a primary cause of the onset of the South Asian monsoon. SDE-induced increase of the meridional temperature gradient drives meridional circulation and enhanced upper tropospheric easterlies and lower tropospheric westerlies, and intensifies monsoon circulation and rainfall. This pattern enhances the EHP-like circulation anomalies induced by atmospheric heating of absorbing aerosols over the northern India. SDE-induced change in the India subcontinent differs that in Eurasia. SDE-induced land-atmospheric interactions in two regions will be also compared.

A method for deterministic statistical downscaling of daily precipitation at a monsoonal site in Eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yonghe; Feng, Jinming; Liu, Xiu; Zhao, Yadi

2017-12-01

Statistical downscaling (SD) is a method that acquires the local information required for hydrological impact assessment from large-scale atmospheric variables. Very few statistical and deterministic downscaling models for daily precipitation have been conducted for local sites influenced by the East Asian monsoon. In this study, SD models were constructed by selecting the best predictors and using generalized linear models (GLMs) for Feixian, a site in the Yishu River Basin and Shandong Province. By calculating and mapping Spearman rank correlation coefficients between the gridded standardized values of five large-scale variables and daily observed precipitation, different cyclonic circulation patterns were found for monsoonal precipitation in summer (June-September) and winter (November-December and January-March); the values of the gridded boxes with the highest absolute correlations for observed precipitation were selected as predictors. Data for predictors and predictands covered the period 1979-2015, and different calibration and validation periods were divided when fitting and validating the models. Meanwhile, the bootstrap method was also used to fit the GLM. All the above thorough validations indicated that the models were robust and not sensitive to different samples or different periods. Pearson's correlations between downscaled and observed precipitation (logarithmically transformed) on a daily scale reached 0.54-0.57 in summer and 0.56-0.61 in winter, and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency between downscaled and observed precipitation reached 0.1 in summer and 0.41 in winter. The downscaled precipitation partially reflected exact variations in winter and main trends in summer for total interannual precipitation. For the number of wet days, both winter and summer models were able to reflect interannual variations. Other comparisons were also made in this study. These results demonstrated that when downscaling, it is appropriate to combine a correlation

Discerning the pre-monsoon urban atmosphere aerosol characteristic and its potential source type remotely sensed by AERONET over the Bengal Gangetic plain.

PubMed

Priyadharshini, Babu; Verma, Shubha; Giles, David M; Holben, Brent N

2018-05-26

In the present study, we evaluated the pre-monsoon urban atmosphere (UA) aerosol characteristics remotely sensed by Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) over the Bengal Gangetic plain (BGP) at Kolkata (KOL) and their implication in potential source types and spatiotemporal features. About 70% of the AERONET-sensed aerosol optical depth at 0.50 μ m, AOD 0.5 (Angstrom exponent, α at 0.44-0.87 μ m) during the pre-monsoon period (February to June) was greater than 0.50 (≤ 1); the pre-monsoon mean of AOD 0.5 (α) was 0.73 (0.83) which was found being slightly higher (lower) than nearby AERONET stations (Dhaka/Bhola) located over the eastern Ganges basin. The volume geometric mean radius for the fine mode (FM) (coarse mode, CM) UA aerosol from AERONET retrievals was estimated to be 0.14-0.17 (2.24-2.75) μ m. The spectral distribution of the monthly mean of UA aerosol single-scattering albedo (SSA) exhibited an increasing trend with an increase in wavelength throughout all wavelengths during April, unlike the rest of the pre-monsoon months. Investigation of aerosol types indicated the pre-dominance of dust during April and a mixture of urban/open burning with mixed desert dust during the rest of the pre-monsoon months. Potential aerosol source fields were identified over the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP), east coast, northwestern India, and oceanic regions; these were estimated at elevated layers of atmosphere during April and May but that at surface layers during February and June. Comparison of aerosol characteristics over the BGP (at Kolkata, KOL) with that at six other coincident AERONET sites over India revealed mean AOD at KOL being 11 to 91% higher than the rest of the AERONET stations, with the relative increase at KOL being the highest during March; this was attributed to persistent high values of both FM and CM AOD unlike the rest of the stations. The monthly mean of SSA was the lowest at KOL among AERONET stations, during February and March. Comparison of the

Modeling the Influences of Aerosols on Pre-Monsoon Circulation and Rainfall over Southeast Asia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, D.; Sud, Y. C.; Oreopoulos, L.; Kim, K.-M.; Lau, W. K.; Kang, I.-S.

2014-01-01

We conduct several sets of simulations with a version of NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5, (GEOS-5) Atmospheric Global Climate Model (AGCM) equipped with a two-moment cloud microphysical scheme to understand the role of biomass burning aerosol (BBA) emissions in Southeast Asia (SEA) in the pre-monsoon period of February-May. Our experiments are designed so that both direct and indirect aerosol effects can be evaluated. For climatologically prescribed monthly sea surface temperatures, we conduct sets of model integrations with and without biomass burning emissions in the area of peak burning activity, and with direct aerosol radiative effects either active or inactive. Taking appropriate differences between AGCM experiment sets, we find that BBA affects liquid clouds in statistically significantly ways, increasing cloud droplet number concentrations, decreasing droplet effective radii (i.e., a classic aerosol indirect effect), and locally suppressing precipitation due to a deceleration of the autoconversion process, with the latter effect apparently also leading to cloud condensate increases. Geographical re-arrangements of precipitation patterns, with precipitation increases downwind of aerosol sources are also seen, most likely because of advection of weakly precipitating cloud fields. Somewhat unexpectedly, the change in cloud radiative effect (cloud forcing) at surface is in the direction of lesser cooling because of decreases in cloud fraction. Overall, however, because of direct radiative effect contributions, aerosols exert a net negative forcing at both the top of the atmosphere and, perhaps most importantly, the surface, where decreased evaporation triggers feedbacks that further reduce precipitation. Invoking the approximation that direct and indirect aerosol effects are additive, we estimate that the overall precipitation reduction is about 40% due to the direct effects of absorbing aerosols, which stabilize the atmosphere and reduce

Desert Dust and Monsoon Rain

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

2014-01-01

For centuries, inhabitants of the Indian subcontinent have know that heavy dust events brought on by strong winds occur frequently in the pre-monsoon season, before the onset of heavy rain. Yet scientists have never seriously considered the possibility that natural dust can affect monsoon rainfall. Up to now, most studies of the impacts of aerosols on Indian monsoon rainfall have focused on anthropogenic aerosols in the context of climate change. However, a few recent studies have show that aerosols from antropogenic and natural sources over the Indian subcontinent may affect the transition from break to active monsoon phases on short timescales of days to weeks. Writing in Nature Geoscience, Vinoj and colleagues describe how they have shown that desert dust aerosols over the Arabian Sea and West Asia can strenghten the summer monsoon over the Indial subcontinent in a matter of days.

Surface Energy Exchanges during Pre-monsoon Thunderstorm Activity over a Tropical Station Kharagpur

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tyagi, Bhishma; Satyanarayana, A. N. V.; Rajvanshi, R. K.; Mandal, M.

2014-07-01

In the present study an attempt has been made to understand the variation of surface energy fluxes such as net radiation, sensible, latent and soil heat during different epochs of thunderstorm activity at Kharagpur. The study also focuses in delineating the difference in the surface energy budget from the days of thunderstorm activity to fair weather days in the pre-monsoon months (April and May) which is locally known as thunderstorm season. For this purpose, experimental data obtained from the Severe Thunderstorms- Observations and Regional Modeling (STORM) programme during pre-monsoon months of 2007, 2009 and 2010 at Kharagpur (22°30'N, 87°20'E), West Bengal, India are used. The present study reveals quick response, in the order of a few days, in the variations of transport of energy fluxes at soil-atmosphere interface to the upper atmosphere vis-à-vis to the occurrence of thunderstorm activity. Rise of surface sensible heat flux to the level of surface latent heat flux a day or two before the occurrence of a thunderstorm has been identified as a precursor signal for the thunderstorm occurrence over Kharagpur. Distinguishable differences are found in the partitioning of the surface energy fluxes to that of net radiation between thunderstorm and non-thunderstorm days. The present study reveals more Bowen's ratio during thunderstorm days to that of nonthunderstorm days. These results are useful in validating mesoscale model simulations of thunderstorm activity.

Particle size distribution properties in mixed-phase monsoon clouds from in situ measurements during CAIPEEX

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patade, Sachin; Prabha, T. V.; Axisa, D.; Gayatri, K.; Heymsfield, A.

2015-10-01

A comprehensive analysis of particle size distributions measured in situ with airborne instrumentation during the Cloud Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation Enhancement Experiment (CAIPEEX) is presented. In situ airborne observations in the developing stage of continental convective clouds during premonsoon (PRE), transition, and monsoon (MON) period at temperatures from 25 to -22°C are used in the study. The PRE clouds have narrow drop size and particle size distributions compared to monsoon clouds and showed less development of size spectra with decrease in temperature. Overall, the PRE cases had much lower values of particle number concentrations and ice water content compared to MON cases, indicating large differences in the ice initiation and growth processes between these cloud regimes. This study provided compelling evidence that in addition to dynamics, aerosol and moisture are important for modulating ice microphysical processes in PRE and MON clouds through impacts on cloud drop size distribution. Significant differences are observed in the relationship of the slope and intercept parameters of the fitted particle size distributions (PSDs) with temperature in PRE and MON clouds. The intercept values are higher in MON clouds than PRE for exponential distribution which can be attributed to higher cloud particle number concentrations and ice water content in MON clouds. The PRE clouds tend to have larger values of dispersion of gamma size distributions than MON clouds, signifying narrower spectra. The relationships between PSDs parameters are presented and compared with previous observations.

Baseline predictability of daily east Asian summer monsoon circulation indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ai, Shucong; Chen, Quanliang; Li, Jianping; Ding, Ruiqiang; Zhong, Quanjia

2017-05-01

The nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent (NLLE) method is adopted to quantitatively determine the predictability limit of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) intensity indices on a synoptic timescale. The predictability limit of EASM indices varies widely according to the definitions of indices. EASM indices defined by zonal shear have a limit of around 7 days, which is higher than the predictability limit of EASM indices defined by sea level pressure (SLP) difference and meridional wind shear (about 5 days). The initial error of EASM indices defined by SLP difference and meridional wind shear shows a faster growth than indices defined by zonal wind shear. Furthermore, the indices defined by zonal wind shear appear to fluctuate at lower frequencies, whereas the indices defined by SLP difference and meridional wind shear generally fluctuate at higher frequencies. This result may explain why the daily variability of the EASM indices defined by zonal wind shear tends be more predictable than those defined by SLP difference and meridional wind shear. Analysis of the temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) skill for EASM indices obtained from observations and from NCEP's Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) historical weather forecast dataset shows that GEFS has a higher forecast skill for the EASM indices defined by zonal wind shear than for indices defined by SLP difference and meridional wind shear. The predictability limit estimated by the NLLE method is shorter than that in GEFS. In addition, the June-September average TCC skill for different daily EASM indices shows significant interannual variations from 1985 to 2015 in GEFS. However, the TCC for different types of EASM indices does not show coherent interannual fluctuations.

Relation Between the Rainfall and Soil Moisture During Different Phases of Indian Monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varikoden, Hamza; Revadekar, J. V.

2018-03-01

Soil moisture is a key parameter in the prediction of southwest monsoon rainfall, hydrological modelling, and many other environmental studies. The studies on relationship between the soil moisture and rainfall in the Indian subcontinent are very limited; hence, the present study focuses the association between rainfall and soil moisture during different monsoon seasons. The soil moisture data used for this study are the ESA (European Space Agency) merged product derived from four passive and two active microwave sensors spanning over the period 1979-2013. The rainfall data used are India Meteorological Department gridded daily data. Both of these data sets are having a spatial resolution of 0.25° latitude-longitude grid. The study revealed that the soil moisture is higher during the southwest monsoon period similar to rainfall and during the pre-monsoon period, the soil moisture is lower. The annual cycle of both the soil moisture and rainfall has the similitude of monomodal variation with a peak during the month of August. The interannual variability of soil moisture and rainfall shows that they are linearly related with each other, even though they are not matched exactly for individual years. The study of extremes also exhibits the surplus amount of soil moisture during wet monsoon years and also the regions of surplus soil moisture are well coherent with the areas of high rainfall.

On the impacts of computing daily temperatures as the average of the daily minimum and maximum temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villarini, Gabriele; Khouakhi, Abdou; Cunningham, Evan

2017-12-01

Daily temperature values are generally computed as the average of the daily minimum and maximum observations, which can lead to biases in the estimation of daily averaged values. This study examines the impacts of these biases on the calculation of climatology and trends in temperature extremes at 409 sites in North America with at least 25 years of complete hourly records. Our results show that the calculation of daily temperature based on the average of minimum and maximum daily readings leads to an overestimation of the daily values of 10+ % when focusing on extremes and values above (below) high (low) thresholds. Moreover, the effects of the data processing method on trend estimation are generally small, even though the use of the daily minimum and maximum readings reduces the power of trend detection ( 5-10% fewer trends detected in comparison with the reference data).

Subseasonal forecast skills and biases of global summer monsoons in the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiangwen; Yang, Song; Li, Qiaoping; Kumar, Arun; Weaver, Scott; Liu, Shi

2014-03-01

Subseasonal forecast skills and biases of global summer monsoons are diagnosed using daily data from the hindcasts of 45-day integrations by the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2. Predictions for subseasonal variability of zonal wind and precipitation are generally more skillful over the Asian and Australian monsoon regions than other monsoon regions. Climatologically, forecasts for the variations of dynamical monsoon indices have high skills at leads of about 2 weeks. However, apparent interannual differences exist, with high skills up to 5 weeks in exceptional cases. Comparisons for the relationships of monsoon indices with atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns between skillful and unskillful forecasts indicate that skills for subseasonal variability of a monsoon index depend partially on the degree to which the observed variability of the index attributes to the variation of large-scale circulation. Thus, predictions are often more skillful when the index is closely linked to atmospheric circulation over a broad region than over a regional and narrow range. It is also revealed that, the subseasonal variations of biases of winds, precipitation, and surface temperature over various monsoon regions are captured by a first mode with seasonally independent biases and a second mode with apparent phase transition of biases during summer. The first mode indicates the dominance of overall weaker-than-observed summer monsoons over major monsoon regions. However, at certain stages of monsoon evolution, these underestimations are regionally offset or intensified by the time evolving biases portrayed by the second mode. This feature may be partially related to factors such as the shifts of subtropical highs and intertropical convergence zones, the reversal of biases of surface temperature over some monsoon regions, and the transition of regional circulation system. The significant geographical differences in bias growth with increasing lead time reflect the

Late Miocene-Pliocene Asian monsoon intensification linked to Antarctic ice-sheet growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ao, Hong; Roberts, Andrew P.; Dekkers, Mark J.; Liu, Xiaodong; Rohling, Eelco J.; Shi, Zhengguo; An, Zhisheng; Zhao, Xiang

2016-06-01

Environmental conditions in one of Earth's most densely populated regions, East Asia, are dominated by the monsoon. While Quaternary monsoon variability is reasonably well understood, pre-Quaternary monsoon variability and dynamics remain enigmatic. In particular, little is known about potential relationships between northern hemispheric monsoon response and major Cenozoic changes in Antarctic ice cover. Here we document long-term East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) intensification through the Late Miocene-Pliocene (∼8.2 to 2.6 Ma), and attribute this to progressive Antarctic glaciation. Our new high-resolution magnetic records of long-term EASM intensification come from the Late Miocene-Pliocene Red Clay sequence on the Chinese Loess Plateau; we identify underlying mechanisms using a numerical climate-model simulation of EASM response to an idealized stepwise increase in Antarctic ice volume. We infer that progressive Antarctic glaciation caused intensification of the cross-equatorial pressure gradient between an atmospheric high-pressure cell over Australia and a low-pressure cell over mid-latitude East Asia, as well as intensification of the cross-equatorial sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient. These combined atmospheric and oceanic adjustments led to EASM intensification. Our findings offer a new and more global perspective on the controls behind long-term Asian monsoon evolution.

Late Miocene-Pliocene Asian monsoon intensification linked to Antarctic ice-sheet growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ao, H.; Roberts, A. P.; Dekkers, M. J.; Liu, X.; Rohling, E. J.; Shi, Z.; An, Z.; Zhao, X.

2016-12-01

Environmental conditions in one of Earth's most densely populated regions, East Asia, are dominated by the monsoon. While Quaternary monsoon variability is reasonably well understood, pre-Quaternary monsoon variability and dynamics remain enigmatic. In particular, little is known about potential relationships between northern hemispheric monsoon response and major Cenozoic changes in Antarctic ice cover. Here we document long-term East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) intensification through the Late Miocene-Pliocene (˜8.2 to 2.6 Ma), and attribute this to progressive Antarctic glaciation. Our new high-resolution magnetic records of long-term EASM intensification come from the Late Miocene-Pliocene Red Clay sequence on the Chinese Loess Plateau; we identify underlying mechanisms using a numerical climate-model simulation of EASM response to an idealized stepwise increase in Antarctic ice volume. We infer that progressive Antarctic glaciation caused intensification of the cross-equatorial pressure gradient between an atmospheric high-pressure cell over Australia and a low-pressure cell over mid-latitude East Asia, as well as intensification of the cross-equatorial sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient. These combined atmospheric and oceanic adjustments led to EASM intensification. Our findings offer a new and more global perspective on the controls behind long-term Asian monsoon evolution.

Atmospheric circulation feedback on west Asian dust and Indian monsoon rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaskaoutis, Dimitris; Houssos, Elias; Gautam, Ritesh; Singh, Ramesh; Rashki, Alireza; Dumka, Umesh

2016-04-01

Classification of the atmospheric circulation patterns associated with high aerosol loading events over the Ganges valley, via the synergy of Factor and Cluster analysis techniques, has indicated six different synoptic weather patterns, two of which mostly occur during late pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons (May to September). The current study focuses on examining these two specific clusters that are associated with different mean sea level pressure (MSLP), geopotential height at 700 hPa (Z700) and wind fields that seem to affect the aerosol (mostly dust) emissions and precipitation distribution over the Indian sub-continent. Furthermore, the study reveals that enhanced aerosol presence over the Arabian Sea is positively associated with increased rainfall over the Indian landmass. The increased dust over the Arabian Sea and rainfall over India are associated with deepening of the northwestern Indian and Arabian lows that increase thermal convection and convergence of humid air masses into Indian landmass, resulting in larger monsoon precipitation. For this cluster, negative MSLP and Z700 anomalies are observed over the Arabian Peninsula that enhance the dust outflow from Arabia and, concurrently, the southwesterly air flow resulting in increase in monsoon precipitation over India. The daily precipitation over India is found to be positively correlated with the aerosol loading over the Arabian Sea for both weather clusters, thus verifying recent results from satellite observations and model simulations concerning the modulation of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall by the Arabian dust. The present work reveals that in addition to the radiative impacts of dust on modulating the monsoon rainfall, differing weather patterns favor changes in dust emissions, accumulation as well as rainfall distribution over south Asia.

Monsoon Convection during the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment Observed from Shipboard Radar and the TRMM Satellite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rickenbach, Tom; Cifelli, Rob; Halverson, Jeff; Kucera, Paul; Atkinson, Lester; Fisher, Brad; Gerlach, John; Harris, Kathy; Kaufman, Cristina; Liu, Ching-Hwang;

Dynamics of size-fractionated phytoplankton biomass in a monsoonal estuary: Patterns and drivers for seasonal and spatial variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajaneesh, K. M.; Mitbavkar, Smita; Anil, Arga Chandrashekar

2018-07-01

Phytoplankton size-fractionated biomass is an important determinant of the type of food web functioning in aquatic ecosystems. Knowledge about the effect of seasonal salinity gradient on the size-fractionated biomass dynamics is still lacking, especially in tropical estuaries experiencing monsoon. The phytoplankton size-fractionated chlorophyll a biomass (>3 μm and <3 μm) and picophytoplankton community structure were characterized in the monsoonal Zuari estuary, along the west coast of India, from October 2010 to September 2011 across the salinity gradient (0-35). On an annual scale, >3 μm size-fraction was the major contributor to the total phytoplankton chlorophyll a biomass with the ephemeral dominance of <3 μm size-fraction. During monsoon season, freshwater runoff and shorter water residence time resulted in a size-independent response. The lowest annual chlorophyll a biomass concentration of both size-fractions showed signs of recovery with increasing salinity downstream towards the end of the monsoon season. In contrast, the chlorophyll a biomass response was size-dependent during the non-monsoon seasons with the sporadic dominance (>50%) of <3 μm chlorophyll a biomass during high water temperature episodes from downstream to middle estuary during pre-monsoon and at low salinity and high nutrient conditions upstream during post-monsoon. These conditions also influenced the picophytoplankton community structure with picoeukaryotes dominating during the pre-monsoon, phycoerythrin containing Synechococcus during the monsoon and phycocyanin containing Synechococcus during the post-monsoon. This study highlights switching over of dominance in size-fractionated phytoplankton chlorophyll a biomass at intra, inter-seasonal and spatial scales which will likely govern the estuarine trophodynamics.

Tropospheric ozone maxima observed over the Arabian Sea during the pre-monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Jia; Ladstätter-Weißenmayer, Annette; Hou, Xuewei; Rozanov, Alexei; Burrows, John P.

2017-04-01

An enhancement of the tropospheric ozone column (TOC) over Arabian Sea (AS) during the pre-monsoon season is reported in this study. The potential sources of the AS spring ozone pool are investigated by use of multiple data sets (e.g., SCIAMACHY Limb-Nadir-Matching TOC, OMI/MLS TOC, TES TOC, MACC reanalysis data, MOZART-4 model and HYSPLIT model). Three-quarters of the enhanced ozone concentrations are attributed to the 0-8 km height range. The main source of the ozone enhancement is considered to be caused by long-range transport of ozone pollutants from India (˜ 50 % contributions to the lowest 4 km, ˜ 20 % contributions to the 4-8 km height range), the Middle East, Africa and Europe (˜ 30 % in total). In addition, the vertical pollution accumulation in the lower troposphere, especially at 4-8 km, was found to be important for the AS spring ozone pool formation. Local photochemistry, on the other hand, plays a negligible role in producing ozone at the 4-8 km height range. In the 0-4 km height range, ozone is quickly removed by wet deposition. The AS spring TOC maxima are influenced by the dynamical variations caused by the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly during the El Niño period in 2005 and 2010 with a ˜ 5 DU decrease.

Ocean heat budget analysis on sea surface temperature anomaly in western Indian Ocean during strong-weak Asian summer monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fathrio, Ibnu; Manda, Atsuyoshi; Iizuka, Satoshi; Kodama, Yasu-Masa; Ishida, Sachinobu

2018-05-01

This study presents ocean heat budget analysis on seas surface temperature (SST) anomalies during strong-weak Asian summer monsoon (southwest monsoon). As discussed by previous studies, there was close relationship between variations of Asian summer monsoon and SST anomaly in western Indian Ocean. In this study we utilized ocean heat budget analysis to elucidate the dominant mechanism that is responsible for generating SST anomaly during weak-strong boreal summer monsoon. Our results showed ocean advection plays more important role to initate SST anomaly than the atmospheric prcess (surface heat flux). Scatterplot analysis showed that vertical advection initiated SST anomaly in western Arabian Sea and southwestern Indian Ocean, while zonal advection initiated SST anomaly in western equatorial Indian Ocean.

Lower tropospheric ozone over India and its linkage to the South Asian monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Xiao; Zhang, Lin; Liu, Xiong; Gao, Meng; Zhao, Yuanhong; Shao, Jingyuan

2018-03-01

Lower tropospheric (surface to 600 hPa) ozone over India poses serious risks to both human health and crops, and potentially affects global ozone distribution through frequent deep convection in tropical regions. Our current understanding of the processes controlling seasonal and long-term variations in lower tropospheric ozone over this region is rather limited due to spatially and temporally sparse observations. Here we present an integrated process analysis of the seasonal cycle, interannual variability, and long-term trends of lower tropospheric ozone over India and its linkage to the South Asian monsoon using the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) satellite observations for years 2006-2014 interpreted with a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) simulation for 1990-2010. OMI observed lower tropospheric ozone over India averaged for 2006-2010, showing the highest concentrations (54.1 ppbv) in the pre-summer monsoon season (May) and the lowest concentrations (40.5 ppbv) in the summer monsoon season (August). Process analyses in GEOS-Chem show that hot and dry meteorological conditions and active biomass burning together contribute to 5.8 Tg more ozone being produced in the lower troposphere in India in May than January. The onset of the summer monsoon brings ozone-unfavorable meteorological conditions and strong upward transport, which all lead to large decreases in the lower tropospheric ozone burden. Interannually, we find that both OMI and GEOS-Chem indicate strong positive correlations (r = 0.55-0.58) between ozone and surface temperature in pre-summer monsoon seasons, with larger correlations found in high NOx emission regions reflecting NOx-limited production conditions. Summer monsoon seasonal mean ozone levels are strongly controlled by monsoon strengths. Lower ozone concentrations are found in stronger monsoon seasons mainly due to less ozone net chemical production. Furthermore, model simulations over 1990-2010 estimate a mean annual trend of 0

Origin, Maintenance and Variability of the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL): The Roles of Monsoon Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lau, W. K. M.; Yuan, C.; Li, Z.

2017-12-01

Using NASA MERRA2 daily reanalysis data, we have investigated the origin, maintenance and variability of the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL) in relation to intrinsic variations of the Asia Monsoon Anticyclone (AMA) during the summer of 2008. Results show that during the pre- and early monsoon period (May to June) abundant quantities of carbon monoxide (CO), carbonaceous aerosols (CA) and dust are found from the earth surface to the upper troposphere (up to 10-12 km) in monsoon and adjacent desert regions, arising from enhanced emissions from the heated desert surface, increased biomass burning over monsoon regions and strong vertical transport by dry convection. During the peak monsoon period (July-August) strong westerlies transport large quantities of dusts from the deserts in the Middle East, North Africa, and West Asia into the Asian monsoon regions. Despite strong precipitation washout, ambient CO, CA and dust are transported by orography-forced deep convection into the UTLS ( 12-16 km) via two key pathways over the heavily polluted regions of a) the Himalayas-Gangetic Plain in northern India, and b) the Sichuan Basin of southwestern China. Upon entering the UTLS via these two pathways, the pollutants are capped by a stable layer near the tropopause, advected, and dispersed by the anticyclonic circulation of AMA, establishing the ATAL in the shape of a "double-stem chimney cloud". The development and variability of the ATAL are strongly linked to the seasonal march, and dominant monsoon intraseasonal (20-30 days) oscillations of the Asian summer monsoon.

Global Monsoon Change During the Last Glacial Maximum: A Multi-Model Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, M.; Wang, B.; Liu, J.

2016-12-01

Change of Global Monsoon (GM) during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is investigated using results from the multi-model ensemble of 7 coupled climate models participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The GM changes during LGM are identified by comparison of the results from the pre-industrial control run and the LGM run. The results show (1) The annual mean GM precipitation and GM domain are reduced by about 10% and 5%, respectively; (2) The monsoon intensity (demonstrated by the local summer-minus-winter precipitation) is also weakened over most monsoon regions except Australian monsoon; (3) The monsoon precipitation is reduced more during the local summer than winter; (4) Distinct from all other regional monsoons, the Australian monsoon is strengthened and the monsoon area is enlarged. Four major factors contribute to these changes. The lower greenhouse gas concentration and the presence of the ice sheets decrease air temperature and water vapor content, resulting in a general weakening of the GM precipitation and reduction of GM domain. The reduced hemispheric difference in seasonal variation of insolation may contribute to the weakened GM intensity. The changed land-ocean configuration in the vicinity of the Maritime Continent, along with the presence of the ice sheets and lower greenhouse gas concentration, result in strengthened land-ocean and North-South hemispheric thermal contrasts, leading to the unique strengthened Australian monsoon. Although some of the results are consistent with the proxy data, uncertainties remain in different models. More comparison is needed between proxy data and model experiments to better understand the changes of the GM during the LGM.

Characterization of aerosols over the Indochina peninsula from satellite-surface observations during biomass burning pre-monsoon season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gautam, Ritesh; Hsu, N. Christina; Eck, Thomas F.; Holben, Brent N.; Janjai, Serm; Jantarach, Treenuch; Tsay, Si-Chee; Lau, William K.

2013-10-01

This paper presents characterization of aerosols over the Indochina peninsular regions of Southeast Asia during pre-monsoon season from satellite and ground-based radiometric observations. Our analysis focuses on the seasonal peak period in aerosol loading and biomass burning, prior to the onset of the Asian summer monsoon, as observed in the inter-annual variations of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and fire count data from MODIS. Multi-year (2007-2011) analysis of spaceborne lidar measurements, from CALIOP, indicates presence of aerosols mostly within boundary layer, however extending to elevated altitudes to ˜4 km over northern regions of Indochina, encompassing Myanmar, northern Thailand and southern China. In addition, a strong gradient in aerosol loading and vertical distribution is observed from the relatively clean equatorial conditions to heavy smoke-laden northern regions (greater aerosol extinction and smaller depolarization ratio). Based on column-integrated ground-based measurements from four AERONET locations distributed over Thailand, the regional aerosol loading is found to be significantly absorbing with spectral single scattering albedo (SSA) below 0.91 ± 0.02 in the 440-1020 nm range, with lowest seasonal mean SSA (most absorbing aerosol) over the northern location of Chiang Mai (SSA ˜ 0.85) during pre-monsoon season. The smoke-laden aerosol loading is found to exhibit a significant diurnal pattern with higher AOD departures during early morning observations relative to late afternoon conditions (peak difference of more than 15% amplitude). Finally, satellite-based aerosol radiative impact is assessed using CERES shortwave Top-of-Atmosphere flux, in conjunction with MODIS AOD. Overall, a consistency in the aerosol-induced solar absorption characteristic is found among selected regions from ground-based sunphotometer-derived spectral SSA retrievals and satellite-based radiative forcing analysis.

Estimating missing daily temperature extremes in Jaffna, Sri Lanka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thevakaran, A.; Sonnadara, D. U. J.

2018-04-01

The accuracy of reconstructing missing daily temperature extremes in the Jaffna climatological station, situated in the northern part of the dry zone of Sri Lanka, is presented. The adopted method utilizes standard departures of daily maximum and minimum temperature values at four neighbouring stations, Mannar, Anuradhapura, Puttalam and Trincomalee to estimate the standard departures of daily maximum and minimum temperatures at the target station, Jaffna. The daily maximum and minimum temperatures from 1966 to 1980 (15 years) were used to test the validity of the method. The accuracy of the estimation is higher for daily maximum temperature compared to daily minimum temperature. About 95% of the estimated daily maximum temperatures are within ±1.5 °C of the observed values. For daily minimum temperature, the percentage is about 92. By calculating the standard deviation of the difference in estimated and observed values, we have shown that the error in estimating the daily maximum and minimum temperatures is ±0.7 and ±0.9 °C, respectively. To obtain the best accuracy when estimating the missing daily temperature extremes, it is important to include Mannar which is the nearest station to the target station, Jaffna. We conclude from the analysis that the method can be applied successfully to reconstruct the missing daily temperature extremes in Jaffna where no data is available due to frequent disruptions caused by civil unrests and hostilities in the region during the period, 1984 to 2000.

Role of Madden-Julian Oscillation in Modulating Monsoon Retreat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Madhu; Bhatla, R.

2018-01-01

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is the major fluctuation in tropical weather on a seasonal scale. The impact of MJO on different epochs, viz., onset, advance and active break is well known. There can be several MJO events in a season and it may enhance/suppress the retreat process. The present study aims to find the MJO-modulated retreat of monsoon. The results suggest that the fastest retreat of monsoon occurred in the years 2007 and 2008, while slowest retreat of monsoon occurred in the year 1979. The retreat features of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) are investigated with the MJO phase and amplitude variations. The daily MJO indices for the retreat period 1979-2016 are used. The results reveal that the MJO strength decreases during the transition phase (i.e., summer monsoon to winter monsoon transition). The monsoon retreat is most favored by strong MJO phase 4 and phase 5. The fastest retreat of monsoon occurred in the years 2007 and 2008, while the slowest retreat of monsoon occurred in the year 1979. There exists a weak positive correlation between the MJO amplitude and the retreat period of monsoon. The monsoon retreat is most favored by strong MJO phase 4 and phase 5. The MJO amplitude variations during MJO phases 1-8 suggest that the MJO amplitude decreases with increase in retreat period. The MJO-modulated retreat results in slow retreat of monsoon, whereas fast and normal retreat of monsoon is seen on rare occasions. Weak MJO events lead to normal retreat of monsoon.

Cloud-Aerosol Interaction and Its Impact on the Onset of the East Asian Summer Monsoon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Kyu-Myong; Lau, William K.-M.; Hsu, N. Christina; Tsay, Si-Chee

2004-01-01

Effect of aerosols from biomass burning on the early development of East Asian monsoon is investigated using various satellites and in situ observations including TOMS Aerosol Index (AI). GPCP precipitation, ISCCP cloud cover, and GISS surface air temperature. Based on TRMM fire produce and mean winds fields at 85Omb. we identified the source and interaction regions of aerosols and investigated aerosol-cloud-precipitation characteristics in those regions. During March-April, northern Thailand, Myanmar. and Laos are major source of smoke from the combustion of agricultural waste. Excessive smoke. represented by high AI, is observed especially during dry and cloud-free year. On the other hand. there is no ground source of smoke in the interaction region. The most of aerosols in this area are believed to be transported from the source region. AI is appeared to be correlated with more clouds and less precipitation in interaction region. It suggests that the aerosol-cloud interaction can alter the distribution of cloud and the characteristics of regional hydrology. Aerosol-induced changes in atmospheric stability and associated circulation turns out to be very important to pre-monsoon rainfall pattern in southern China. Prolonged biomass burning is especially effective in changing rainfall pattern during April and May. Results suggest that excessive aerosol transported from source region may intensify pre-monsoon rain band over central China in May and lead to early monsoon onset.

Influences of spring-to-summer sea surface temperatures over different Indian Ocean domains on the Asian summer monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhenning; Yang, Song

2017-11-01

The influences of spring-to-summer sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in different domains of the Indian Ocean (IO) on the Asian summer monsoon are investigated by conducting a series of numerical experiments using the NCAR CAM4 model. It is found that, to a certain extent, the springtime IO SST anomalies can persist to the summer season. The spring-to-summer IO SST anomalies associated with the IO basin warming mode are strongly linked to the summer climate over Asia, especially the South Asian monsoon (SAM) and the East Asian monsoon. Among this connection, the warming of tropical IO plays the most critical role, and the warming of southern IO is important for monsoon variation and prediction prior to the full development of the monsoon. The atmospheric response to IO basin wide warming is similar with that to tropical IO warming. The influence of northern IO warming on the SAM, however, is opposite to the effect of southern IO warming. Meanwhile, the discrepancies between the results from idealized SST forcing simulations and observations, especially for the southern IO, reveal that the dominant role of air-sea interaction in the monsoon-IO coupled system cannot be ignored. Moreover, the springtime northern IO warming seems to favor an early onset or a stronger persistence of the SAM.

Sediment transport dynamics in the Central Himalaya: assessing during monsoon the erosion processes signature in the daily suspended load of the Narayani river

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morin, Guillaume; Lavé, Jérôme; Lanord, Christian France; Prassad Gajurel, Ananta

2017-04-01

/yr obtained from cosmonuclides in Narayani river sands (Lupker et al. 2012). Such stability of the erosion rates suggests that either buffering behaviour of this large watershed or broad spatial integration dampen the variability in monsoon strength or the sporadic nature of extreme mass-wasting events. 2. Paradoxically, the relatively high variability of the daily geochemical signature in suspended load and the apparent absence of delay between high rainfall episodes and sediment export suggest very short transfer time for silt and medium sand load, despite fluvial transfer distance of hundreds of kilometres between the sediment sources and the mountain outlet. This implies the absence of a buffering behaviour of the fluvial network and a very reactive fluvial system, which would be strongly supply limited relative to the fine sediment fraction. 3. By analysing sediments fluxes and using geochemical compositions in deltaD, carbonates content and TOC, which we propose as possible tracers for glacier- and soil-derived material, we show that glacier and soil erosion contribute to annual erosion budget to less than 10% and a few % respectively. Their imprints in Narayani sediment is only visible during the pre- and early monsoon before being overwhelmed by landslide-derived material during the monsoon. 4. Hillslope erosion by landslides appears therefore as the dominant erosional process in central Himalaya, and by comparing the sediment export history to a rainfall/runoff model, we confirm Gabet et al.'s (2004) inference that sediment export and possibly landslide triggering on Himalayan hillslopes are controlled both by pore pressure (depending on cumulated precipitation) and daily rainfall intensity.

Response of the Asian summer monsoon to changes in El Niño properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Annamalai, H.; Liu, P.

2005-04-01

Diagnostics from observed precipitation and National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research re-analysis products reveal that after the 1976-77 climate shift in the Pacific there was a dramatic change in the response of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) to El Niño, particularly during the months of July and August. Based on 1950-75 (PRE76) and 1977-2001 (POST76) El Niño composites: the western North Pacific monsoon (WNPM) was stronger than normal in both periods; the ISM was weaker than normal during the entire monsoon season in PRE76, but in POST76 was weaker only during the onset and withdrawal phases. In terms of observed sea surface temperature (SST) during July-August, the major differences between the two periods are the presence of cold SST anomalies over the Indo-Pacific warm pool and the intensity of warm SST anomalies in the central Pacific in POST76. The effect of these differences on the ISM is investigated in a suite of experiments with an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) that has a realistic monsoon precipitation climatology.Separate ten-member ensemble simulations with the AGCM were conducted for PRE76 and POST76 El Niño events with SST anomalies inserted as follows: (i) tropical Indo-Pacific (TIP), (ii) tropical Pacific only (TPO), and (iii) tropical Indian Ocean only (TIO). Qualitatively, TPO solutions reproduce the observed differences in the monsoon response in both periods. Specifically, during July-August of POST76 the cold SST anomalies in conjunction with remote subsidence suppress precipitation (3-5 mm day-1) over the maritime continent and equatorial central Indian Ocean. Inclusion of Indian Ocean SST anomalies in the TIP runs further suppresses precipitation over the entire equatorial Indian Ocean. The low-level anticyclonic circulation anomalies that develop as a Rossby-wave response to these convective anomalies increase the south-westerlies over the northern Indian Ocean, and favour a

Asian Monsoons: Variability, Predictability, and Sensitivity to External Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Song; Lau, K.-M.; Kim, K.-M.

1999-01-01

In this study, we have addressed the interannual variations of Asian monsoons including both broad-scale and regional monsoon components. Particular attention is devoted to the identities of the South China Sea monsoon and Indian monsoon. We use CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation and NCEP reanalyses to define regional monsoon indices and to depict the various monsoons. Parallel modeling studies have also been carried out to assess the potential predictability of the broad-scale and regional monsoons. Each monsoon is characterized by its unique features. While the South Asian monsoon represents a classical monsoon in which anomalous circulation is governed by Rossby-wave dynamics, the Southeast Asian monsoon symbolizes a "hybrid" monsoon that features multi-cellular meridional circulation over eastern Asia. The broad-scale Asian monsoon links to the basin-wide atmospheric circulation over the Indian-Pacific oceans. Both Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) and land surface processes are important for determining the variations of all monsoons. For the broad-scale monsoon, SST anomalies are more important than land surface processes. However, for regional monsoons, land surface processes may become equally important. Both observation and model shows that the broad-scale monsoon is potentially more predictable than regional monsoons, and that the Southeast Asian monsoon may possess higher predictability than the South Asian monsoon.

Estimation and Modelling of Land Surface Temperature Using Landsat 7 ETM+ Images and Fuzzy System Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bisht, K.; Dodamani, S. S.

2016-12-01

Modelling of Land Surface Temperature is essential for short term and long term management of environmental studies and management activities of the Earth's resources. The objective of this research is to estimate and model Land Surface Temperatures (LST). For this purpose, Landsat 7 ETM+ images period from 2007 to 2012 were used for retrieving LST and processed through MATLAB software using Mamdani fuzzy inference systems (MFIS), which includes pre-monsoon and post-monsoon LST in the fuzzy model. The Mangalore City of Karnataka state, India has been taken for this research work. Fuzzy model inputs are considered as the pre-monsoon and post-monsoon retrieved temperatures and LST was chosen as output. In order to develop a fuzzy model for LST, seven fuzzy subsets, nineteen rules and one output are considered for the estimation of weekly mean air temperature. These are very low (VL), low (L), medium low (ML), medium (M), medium high (MH), high (H) and very high (VH). The TVX (Surface Temperature Vegetation Index) and the empirical method have provided estimated LST. The study showed that the Fuzzy model M4/7-19-1 (model 4, 7 fuzzy sets, 19 rules and 1 output) which developed over Mangalore City has provided more accurate outcomes than other models (M1, M2, M3, M5). The result of this research was evaluated according to statistical rules. The best correlation coefficient (R) and root mean squared error (RMSE) between estimated and measured values for pre-monsoon and post-monsoon LST found to be 0.966 - 1.607 K and 0.963- 1.623 respectively.

Monsoon and primary acute angle closure in malaysia.

PubMed

Ch'ng, T W; Mosavi, S A A; Noor Azimah, A A; Azlan, N Z; Azhany, Y; Liza-Sharmini, A T

2013-10-01

Acute angle closure (AAC) without prompt treatment may lead to optic neuropathy. Environmental factor such as climate change may precipitate pupillary block, the possible mechanism of AAC. To determine the association of northeast monsoon and incidence of AAC in Malaysia. A retrospective study was conducted on AAC patients admitted to two main tertiary hospitals in Kelantan, Malaysia between January 2001 and December 2011. The cumulative number of rainy day, amount of rain, mean cloud cover and 24 hours mean humidity at the estimated day of attack were obtained from the Department of Meteorology, Malaysia. A total 73 cases of AAC were admitted with mean duration of 4.1SD 2.0 days. More than half have previous history of possibility of AAC. There was higher incidence of AAC during the northeast monsoon (October to March). There was also significant correlation of number of rainy day (r=0.718, p<0.001), amount of rain (r=0.587, p<0.001), cloud cover (r=0.637, p<0.001), mean daily global radiation (r=- 0.596, P<0.001), 24 hours mean temperature (r=-0.298, p=0.015) and 24 hours mean humidity (r=0.508, p<0.001) with cumulative number of admission for AAC for 12 calendar months. Higher incidence of AAC during northeast monsoon suggested the effect of climate as the potential risk factor. Prompt treatment to arrest pupillary block and reduction of the intraocular pressure is important to prevent potential glaucomatous damage. Public awareness of AAC and accessibility to treatment should be part of preparation to face the effect of northeast monsoon.

Seasonal variability in the South Asian monsoon dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bordoni, S.; Walker, J. M.

2017-12-01

Here, we analyze seasonal changes in the dynamics and thermodynamics of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) in atmospheric reanalysis data using a threshold-independent index of monsoon onset we have recently introduced (Walker and Bordoni 2016). We seek to evaluate the extent to which emerging theoretical frameworks are consistent with the observed monsoon. Climatological composites reveal that at monsoon onset, an abrupt strengthening and northward migration of the maximum in sub-cloud equivalent potential temperature accompany the rapid northward movement of the monsoon rainbelt. These changes are driven by changes in near-surface specific humidity, rather than changes in near-surface temperature, whose gradient actually decreases at monsoon onset. These findings are inconsistent with the traditional paradigm of the monsoon as a sea breeze circulation and confirm the convectively coupled view of the SASM circulation as an energetically-direct overturning circulation as more fundamental for the understanding of monsoon dynamics. Providing further support to this emerging view, we show that the SASM sector mean circulation at monsoon onset undergoes a rapid transition from an equinox circulation with a pair of tropical overturning cells, to a solstice circulation dominated by a strong cross-equatorial monsoonal cell and negligible overturning cell in the northern hemisphere.This transition corresponds to a transition in the leading order momentum budget, from an eddy-dominated equinox regime to a highly nonlinear monsoon regime which approaches conservation of angular momentum. These transitions are similar to those seen in idealized zonally symmetric studies of aquaplanet monsoons, suggesting that eddy-mean flow feedbacks identified in those studies may be acting in the SASM sector, and may contribute to the abruptness of the SASM onset. Our findings highlight the importance of nonlinear dynamics in the seasonal evolution of the SASM circulation and suggest

Contrasting early Holocene temperature variations between monsoonal East Asia and westerly dominated Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Jiaju; An, Chen-Bang; Huang, Yongsong; Morrill, Carrie; Chen, Fa-Hu

2017-12-01

Numerous studies have demonstrated that there are major differences in the timing of maximum Holocene precipitation between the monsoonal East Asia and westerly dominated Central Asia, but it is unclear if the moisture differences are also associated with corresponding temperature contrasts. Here we present the first alkenone-based paleotemperature reconstructions for the past 21 kyr from Lake Balikun, central Asia. We show, unlike the initiation of Holocene warm conditions at ∼11 kyr BP in the monsoon regions, the arid central Asia remained in a glacial-like cold condition prior to 8 kyr BP and experienced abrupt warming of ∼9 °C after the collapse of the Laurentide ice sheet. Comparison with pollen and other geochemical data indicates the abrupt warming is closely associated with major increase in the moisture supply to the region. Together, our multiproxy data indicate ∼2 thousand years delay of temperature and moisture optimum relative to local summer insolation maximum, suggesting major influence of the Laurentide ice sheet and other high latitude ice sheet forcings on the regional atmospheric circulation. In addition, our data reveal a temperature drop by ∼4 °C around 4 kyr BP lasting multiple centuries, coinciding with severe increases in aridity previously reported based on multiproxy data. In contrast, model simulations display a much less pronounced delay in the initiation of Holocene warm conditions, raising unresolved questions about the relative importance of local radiative forcing and high-latitude ice on temperature in this region.

The evolution of sub-monsoon systems in the Afro-Asian monsoon region during the Holocene - comparison of different transient climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dallmeyer, A.; Claussen, M.; Fischer, N.; Haberkorn, K.; Wagner, S.; Pfeiffer, M.; Jin, L.; Khon, V.; Wang, Y.; Herzschuh, U.

2014-05-01

The recently proposed global monsoon hypothesis interprets monsoon systems as part of one global-scale atmospheric overturning circulation, implying a connection between the regional monsoon systems and an in-phase behaviour of all northern hemispheric monsoons on annual timescales (Trenberth et al., 2000). Whether this concept can be applied to past climates and variability on longer timescales is still under debate, because the monsoon systems exhibit different regional characteristics such as different seasonality (i.e. onset, peak, and withdrawal). To investigate the interconnection of different monsoon systems during the pre-industrial Holocene, five transient global climate model simulations have been analysed with respect to the rainfall trend and variability in different sub-domains of the Afro-Asian monsoon region. Our analysis suggests that on millennial timescales with varying orbital forcing, the monsoons do not behave as a tightly connected global system. According to the models, the Indian and North African monsoons are coupled, showing similar rainfall trend and moderate correlation in rainfall variability in all models. The East Asian monsoon changes independently during the Holocene. The dissimilarities in the seasonality of the monsoon sub-systems lead to a stronger response of the North African and Indian monsoon systems to the Holocene insolation forcing than of the East Asian monsoon and affect the seasonal distribution of Holocene rainfall variations. Within the Indian and North African monsoon domain, precipitation solely changes during the summer months, showing a decreasing Holocene precipitation trend. In the East Asian monsoon region, the precipitation signal is determined by an increasing precipitation trend during spring and a decreasing precipitation change during summer, partly balancing each other. A synthesis of reconstructions and the model results do not reveal an impact of the different seasonality on the timing of the Holocene

The evolution of sub-monsoon systems in the Afro-Asian monsoon region during the Holocene- comparison of different transient climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dallmeyer, A.; Claussen, M.; Fischer, N.; Haberkorn, K.; Wagner, S.; Pfeiffer, M.; Jin, L.; Khon, V.; Wang, Y.; Herzschuh, U.

2015-02-01

The recently proposed global monsoon hypothesis interprets monsoon systems as part of one global-scale atmospheric overturning circulation, implying a connection between the regional monsoon systems and an in-phase behaviour of all northern hemispheric monsoons on annual timescales (Trenberth et al., 2000). Whether this concept can be applied to past climates and variability on longer timescales is still under debate, because the monsoon systems exhibit different regional characteristics such as different seasonality (i.e. onset, peak and withdrawal). To investigate the interconnection of different monsoon systems during the pre-industrial Holocene, five transient global climate model simulations have been analysed with respect to the rainfall trend and variability in different sub-domains of the Afro-Asian monsoon region. Our analysis suggests that on millennial timescales with varying orbital forcing, the monsoons do not behave as a tightly connected global system. According to the models, the Indian and North African monsoons are coupled, showing similar rainfall trend and moderate correlation in centennial rainfall variability in all models. The East Asian monsoon changes independently during the Holocene. The dissimilarities in the seasonality of the monsoon sub-systems lead to a stronger response of the North African and Indian monsoon systems to the Holocene insolation forcing than of the East Asian monsoon and affect the seasonal distribution of Holocene rainfall variations. Within the Indian and North African monsoon domain, precipitation solely changes during the summer months, showing a decreasing Holocene precipitation trend. In the East Asian monsoon region, the precipitation signal is determined by an increasing precipitation trend during spring and a decreasing precipitation change during summer, partly balancing each other. A synthesis of reconstructions and the model results do not reveal an impact of the different seasonality on the timing of the

Local and remote impacts of aerosol species on Indian summer monsoon rainfall in a GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Liang; Turner, Andrew; Highwood, Eleanor

2016-04-01

The HadGEM2 AGCM is used to determine the most important anthropogenic aerosols in the Indian monsoon using experiments in which observed trends in individual aerosol species are imposed. Sulphur dioxide (SD) emissions are shown to impact rainfall more strongly than black carbon (BC) aerosols, causing reduced rainfall especially over northern India. Significant perturbations due to BC are not noted until its emissions are scaled up in a sensitivity test, in which rainfall increases over northern India as a result of the Elevated Heat Pump mechanism, enhancing convection during the pre-monsoon and bringing forward the monsoon onset. Secondly, the impact of anthropogenic aerosols is compared to that of increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations and observed sea-surface temperature (SST) warming. The tropospheric temperature gradient driving the monsoon shows weakening when forced by either SD or imposed SST trends. However the observed SST trend is dominated by warming in the deep tropics; when the component of SST trend related to aerosol emissions is removed, further warming is found in the extratropical northern hemisphere that tends to offset monsoon weakening. This suggests caution is needed when using SST forcing as a proxy for greenhouse warming. Finally, aerosol emissions are decomposed into those from the Indian region and those elsewhere, in pairs of experiments with SD and BC. Both local and remote aerosol emissions are found to lead to rainfall changes over India; for SD, remote aerosols contribute around 75% of the rainfall decrease over India, while for BC the remote forcing is even more dominant.

Fast Adjustments of the Asian Summer Monsoon to Anthropogenic Aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiaoqiong; Ting, Mingfang; Lee, Dong Eun

2018-01-01

Anthropogenic aerosols are a major factor contributing to human-induced climate change, particularly over the densely populated Asian monsoon region. Understanding the physical processes controlling the aerosol-induced changes in monsoon rainfall is essential for reducing the uncertainties in the future projections of the hydrological cycle. Here we use multiple coupled and atmospheric general circulation models to explore the physical mechanisms for the aerosol-driven monsoon changes on different time scales. We show that anthropogenic aerosols induce an overall reduction in monsoon rainfall and circulation, which can be largely explained by the fast adjustments over land north of 20∘N. This fast response occurs before changes in sea surface temperature (SST), largely driven by aerosol-cloud interactions. However, aerosol-induced SST feedbacks (slow response) cause substantial changes in the monsoon meridional circulation over the oceanic regions. Both the land-ocean asymmetry and meridional temperature gradient are key factors in determining the overall monsoon circulation response.

Global warming and South Indian monsoon rainfall-lessons from the Mid-Miocene.

PubMed

Reuter, Markus; Kern, Andrea K; Harzhauser, Mathias; Kroh, Andreas; Piller, Werner E

2013-04-01

Precipitation over India is driven by the Indian monsoon. Although changes in this atmospheric circulation are caused by the differential seasonal diabatic heating of Asia and the Indo-Pacific Ocean, it is so far unknown how global warming influences the monsoon rainfalls regionally. Herein, we present a Miocene pollen flora as the first direct proxy for monsoon over southern India during the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum. To identify climatic key parameters, such as mean annual temperature, warmest month temperature, coldest month temperature, mean annual precipitation, mean precipitation during the driest month, mean precipitation during the wettest month and mean precipitation during the warmest month the Coexistence Approach is applied. Irrespective of a ~ 3-4 °C higher global temperature during the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum, the results indicate a modern-like monsoonal precipitation pattern contrasting marine proxies which point to a strong decline of Indian monsoon in the Himalaya at this time. Therefore, the strength of monsoon rainfall in tropical India appears neither to be related to global warming nor to be linked with the atmospheric conditions over the Tibetan Plateau. For the future it implies that increased global warming does not necessarily entail changes in the South Indian monsoon rainfall.

Regional influence of monsoons in the current and a warming climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saini, Roop

Monsoon rainfall is of critical societal importance and monsoon circulations comprise an important part of global climate. Here, the thermodynamics of monsoon onsets in India and North America are considered both for observed data and for model projections with increasing greenhouse gases, in order to better understand the regional influence of monsoons in the current and warming climate. The regional influence of the monsoon onsets is analyzed in terms of the thermodynamic energy equation, regional circulation, and precipitation. For the Indian Monsoon, a Rossby-like response to the monsoon onset is clear in the observational data and is associated with horizontal temperature advection at midlevels as the westerlies intersect the warm temperature anomalies of the Rossby wave. The horizontal temperature advection is balanced by subsidence over areas of North Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Middle East, with an associated decrease in precipitation over those regions. The same processes that favor subsidence to the west of the monsoon also force rising motion over northern India and appear to be an important factor for the inland development of the monsoon. For the smaller spatial scales of the North American Monsoon, the descent to the northwest of the primary onset in Northwest Mexico is much more local and occurs directly in the path of monsoon development, apparently providing a self-limiting mechanism. For both monsoon onsets, simple Gill-Matsuno dynamics provide some qualitative understanding of the onset circulation, but do not reproduce the large spatial scales of the upper-level flow, which appear to be related to interactions with the mean westerly jets. The monsoon onsets for both regions were also analyzed for 5 models with available data from the CMIP5 project for runs with 1% per year CO2 increases. For the models considered, there is little consensus regarding changes to the strength of the monsoon onset in a warmer climate in terms of precipitation

Early forecasting of Indian Summer Monsoon: case study 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surovyatkina, Elena; Stolbova, Veronika; Kurths, Jurgen

2017-04-01

The prior knowledge of dates of onset and withdrawal of monsoon is of vital importance for the population of the Indian subcontinent. In May 2016 before monsoon season, India recorded its highest-ever temperature of 51C. Hot waves have decimated crops, killed livestock and left 330 million people without enough water. At the end of monsoon season the floods in Indian this year have also broken previous records. Severe and devastating rainfall poured down, triggering dams spilling and floods. Such extreme conditions pose the vital questions such as: When will the monsoon come? When will the monsoon withdraw? More lead time in monsoon forecast warning is crucial for taking appropriate decisions at various levels - from the farmer's field (e.g. plowing day, seeding) to the central government (e.g. managing water and energy resources, food procurement policies). The Indian Meteorological Department issues forecasts of onset of monsoon for Kerala state in South India on May 15-th. It does not give such predictions for the other 28 states of the country. Our study concerns the central part of India. We made the monsoon forecast using our recently developed method which focuses on Tipping elements of the Indian monsoon [1]. Our prediction relies on observations of near-surface air temperature and relative humidity from both the ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. We performed both of our forecasts for the onset and withdrawal of monsoon for the central part of India, the Eastern Ghats (20N,80E). We predicted the monsoon arrival to the Eastern Ghats (20N,80E) on the 13th of June with a deviation of +/-4 days. The prediction was made on May 6-th, 2016 [2], that is 40 days in advance of the date of the forecast. The actual monsoon arrival was June 17-th. In this day near-surface air temperature and relative humidity overcame the critical values and the monsoon season started, that was confirmed by observations of meteorological stations located around the EG-region. We

The monsoon system: Land-sea breeze or the ITCZ?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gadgil, Sulochana

2018-02-01

For well over 300 years, the monsoon has been considered to be a gigantic land-sea breeze driven by the land-ocean contrast in surface temperature. In this paper, this hypothesis and its implications for the variability of the monsoon are discussed and it is shown that the observations of monsoon variability do not support this popular theory of the monsoon. An alternative hypothesis (whose origins can be traced to Blanford's (1886) remarkably perceptive analysis) in which the basic system responsible for the Indian summer monsoon is considered to be the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) or the equatorial trough, is then examined and shown to be consistent with the observations. The implications of considering the monsoon as a manifestation of the seasonal migration of the ITCZ for the variability of the Indian summer monsoon and for identification of the monsoonal regions of the world are briefly discussed.

Daily rhythmicity of body temperature in the dog.

PubMed

Refinetti, R; Piccione, G

2003-08-01

Research over the past 50 years has demonstrated the existence of circadian or daily rhythmicity in the body core temperature of a large number of mammalian species. However, previous studies have failed to identify daily rhythmicity of body temperature in dogs. We report here the successful recording of daily rhythms of rectal temperature in female Beagle dogs. The low robustness of the rhythms (41% of maximal robustness) and the small range of excursion (0.5 degrees C) are probably responsible for previous failures in detecting rhythmicity in dogs.

Planetary boundary layer height over the Indian subcontinent: Variability and controls with respect to monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sathyanadh, Anusha; Prabhakaran, Thara; Patil, Chetana; Karipot, Anandakumar

2017-10-01

Planetary boundary layer (PBL) height characteristics over the Indian sub-continent at diurnal to seasonal scales and its controlling factors in relation to monsoon are investigated. The reanalysis (Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, MERRA) PBL heights (PBLH) used for the study are validated against those derived from radiosonde observations and radio occultation air temperature and humidity profiles. The radiosonde observations include routine India Meteorological Department observations at two locations (coastal and an inland) for one full year and campaign based early afternoon radiosonde observations at six inland locations over the study region for selected days from May-September 2011. The temperature and humidity profiles from radio occultations spread over the sub-continent at irregular timings during the year 2011. The correlations and root mean square errors are in the range 0.74-0.83 and 407 m-643 m, respectively. Large pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon variations in PBL maximum height (1000 m-4000 m), time of occurrence of maximum height (11:00 LST-17:00 LST) and growth rate (100 to 400 m h- 1) are noted over the land, depending on geographical location and more significantly on the moisture availability which influences the surface sensible and latent heat fluxes. The PBLH variations associated with active-break intra-seasonal monsoon oscillations are up to 1000 m over central Indian locations. Inter relationship between the PBLH and the controlling factors, i.e. Evaporative Fraction, net radiation, friction velocity, surface Richardson number, and scalar diffusivity fraction, show significant variation between dry and wet PBL regimes, which also varies with geographical location. Evaporative fraction has dominant influence on the PBLH over the region. Enhanced entrainment during monsoon contributes to reduction in PBLH, whereas the opposite effect is noted during dry period. Linear regression, cross wavelet and

The Joint Aerosol-Monsoon Experiment (JAMEX): A Core Element for the Asian Monsoon Year (2008-2009)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, WIlliam K. M.

2007-01-01

The objective of the Joint Aerosol-Monsoon Experiment (JAMEX) is to unravel the physical mechanisms and multi-scale interactions associated with aerosol-monsoon water cycle in the Asian Indo-Paczj?c region towards improved prediction of rainfall in land regions of the Asian monsoon. JAMEX will be planned as a five-year (2007-201 1) multi-national aerosol-monsoon research project, aimed at promoting collaboration, partnership and alignment of ongoing and planned national and international programs. Two coordinated special observing periods (SOP), covering the pre-monsoon (April-May) and the monsoon (June-August) periods is tentatively targeted for 2008 and 2009. The major work on validation and reference site coordination will take place in 2007 through the spring of 2008. A major science workshop is planned after SOP-I1 in 2010. Modeling and satellite data utilization studies will continue throughout the entire period to help in design of the observation arrays and measurement platforms for SOPS. The tentative time schedule, including milestones and research activities is shown in Fig. 1. One of the unique aspects of JAMEX is that it stems from grass-root scientific and societal imperatives, and it bridges a gap in existing national and international research programs. Currently we have identified 10 major national and international projects/programs separately for aerosols and monsoon research planned in the next five years in China, India, Japan, Italy, and the US, that could be potential contributors or partners with JAMEX. These include the Asian-Indo- Pacific Ocean (AIPO) Project and Aerosol Research Project from China, Monsoon Asian Hydro- Atmospheric Science Research and predication Initiative (MAHASRI) from Japan, Continental Tropical Convergence Zone (CTCZ) and Severe Thunderstorm: Observations and Regional Modeling (STORM) from India, Share-Asia from Italy, Atmospheric Brown Cloud (ABC), Pacific Aerosol-Cloud-Dust Experiment (PACDEX), East Asia Study of

The Joint Aerosol-Monsoon Experiment (JAMEX): A Core Element for the Asian Monsoon Year (2008-2009)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K.M.

2007-01-01

The objective of the Joint Aerosol-Monsoon Experiment (JAMEX) is to unravel the physical mechanisms and multi-scale interactions associated with aerosol-monsoon water cycle in the Asian Indo-Pacific region towards improved prediction of rainfall in land regions of the Asian monsoon. JAMEX will be planned as a five-year (2007-201 1) multi-national aerosol-monsoon research project, aimed at promoting collaboration, partnership and alignment of ongoing and planned national and international programs. Two coordinated special observing periods (SOP), covering the pre-monsoon (April-May) and the monsoon (June-August) periods is tentatively targeted for 2008 and 2009. The major work on validation and reference site coordination will take place in 2007 through the spring of 2008. A major science workshop is planned after SOP-I1 in 2010. Modeling and satellite data utilization studies will continue throughout the entire period to help in design of the observation arrays and measurement platforms for SOPS. The tentative time schedule, including milestones and research activities is shown in Fig. 1. One of the unique aspects of JAMEX is that it stems from grass-root scientific and societal imperatives, and it bridges a gap in existing national and international research programs. Currently we have identified 10 major national and international projects/programs separately for aerosols and monsoon research planned in the next five years in China, India, Japan, Italy, and the US, that could be potential contributors or partners with JAMEX. These include the Asian-Indo- Pacific Ocean (AIPO) Project and Aerosol Research Project from China, Monsoon Asian Hydro- Atmospheric Science Research and predication Initiative (MAHASRI) from Japan, Continental Tropical Convergence Zone (CTCZ) and Severe Thunderstorm: Observations and Regional Modeling (STORM) from India, Share-Asia from Italy, Atmospheric Brown Cloud (ABC), Pacific Aerosol-Cloud-Dust Experiment (PACDEX), East Asia Study of

Sensitivity of Asian Summer Monsoon precipitation to tropical sea surface temperature anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Lei; Shin, Sang-Ik; Liu, Zhengyu; Liu, Qinyu

2016-10-01

Sensitivity of Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) precipitation to tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies was estimated from ensemble simulations of two atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) with an array of idealized SST anomaly patch prescriptions. Consistent sensitivity patterns were obtained in both models. Sensitivity of Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) precipitation to cooling in the East Pacific was much weaker than to that of the same magnitude in the local Indian-western Pacific, over which a meridional pattern of warm north and cold south was most instrumental in increasing ISM precipitation. This indicates that the strength of the ENSO-ISM relationship is due to the large-amplitude East Pacific SST anomaly rather than its sensitivity value. Sensitivity of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), represented by the Yangtze-Huai River Valley (YHRV, also known as the meiyu-baiu front) precipitation, is non-uniform across the Indian Ocean basin. YHRV precipitation was most sensitive to warm SST anomalies over the northern Indian Ocean and the South China Sea, whereas the southern Indian Ocean had the opposite effect. This implies that the strengthened EASM in the post-Niño year is attributable mainly to warming of the northern Indian Ocean. The corresponding physical links between these SST anomaly patterns and ASM precipitation were also discussed. The relevance of sensitivity maps was justified by the high correlation between sensitivity-map-based reconstructed time series using observed SST anomaly patterns and actual precipitation series derived from ensemble-mean atmospheric GCM runs with time-varying global SST prescriptions during the same period. The correlation results indicated that sensitivity maps derived from patch experiments were far superior to those based on regression methods.

Aerosols cause intraseasonal short-term suppression of Indian monsoon rainfall.

PubMed

Dave, Prashant; Bhushan, Mani; Venkataraman, Chandra

2017-12-11

Aerosol abundance over South Asia during the summer monsoon season, includes dust and sea-salt, as well as, anthropogenic pollution particles. Using observations during 2000-2009, here we uncover repeated short-term rainfall suppression caused by coincident aerosols, acting through atmospheric stabilization, reduction in convection and increased moisture divergence, leading to the aggravation of monsoon break conditions. In high aerosol-low rainfall regions extending across India, both in deficient and normal monsoon years, enhancements in aerosols levels, estimated as aerosol optical depth and absorbing aerosol index, acted to suppress daily rainfall anomaly, several times in a season, with lags of a few days. A higher frequency of prolonged rainfall breaks, longer than seven days, occurred in these regions. Previous studies point to monsoon rainfall weakening linked to an asymmetric inter-hemispheric energy balance change attributed to aerosols, and short-term rainfall enhancement from radiative effects of aerosols. In contrast, this study uncovers intraseasonal short-term rainfall suppression, from coincident aerosol forcing over the monsoon region, leading to aggravation of monsoon break spells. Prolonged and intense breaks in the monsoon in India are associated with rainfall deficits, which have been linked to reduced food grain production in the latter half of the twentieth century.

Regional Climate Model Performance in Simulating Intra-seasonal and Interannual Variability of Indian Summer Monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatla, R.; Ghosh, Soumik; Mall, R. K.; Sinha, P.; Sarkar, Abhijit

2018-05-01

Establishment of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall passes through the different phases and is not uniformly distributed over the Indian subcontinent. This enhancement and reduction in daily rainfall anomaly over the Indian core monsoon region during peak monsoon season (i.e., July and August) are commonly termed as `active' and `break' phases of monsoon. The purpose of this study is to analyze REGional Climate Model (RegCM) results obtained using the most suitable convective parameterization scheme (CPS) to determine active/break phases of ISM. The model-simulated daily outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), mean sea level pressure (MSLP), and the wind at 850 hPa of spatial resolution of 0.5°× 0.5° are compared with NOAA, NCEP, and EIN15 data, respectively over the South-Asia Co-Ordinated Regional Climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) region. 25 years (1986-2010) composites of OLR, MSLP, and the wind at 850 hPa are considered from start to the dates of active/break phase and up to the end dates of active/break spell of monsoon. A negative/positive anomaly of OLR with active/break phase is found in simulations with CPSs Emanuel and Mix99 (Grell over land; Emanuel over ocean) over the core monsoon region as well as over Monsoon Convergence Zone (MCZ) of India. The appearance of monsoon trough during active phase over the core monsoon zone and its shifting towards the Himalayan foothills during break phase are also depicted well. Because of multi-cloud function over oceanic region and single cloud function over the land mass, the Mix99 CPSs perform well in simulating the synoptic features during the phases of monsoon.

The response of East Asian monsoon to the precessional cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J. E.

2017-12-01

The oxygen isotopic composition of cave speleothems exhibits a large amplitude change following the insolation, particularly the precessional cycle. Whether speleothem d18O reflects local precipitation amount, however, has been questioned by alternative hypotheses: (1) d18O reflects upstream Indian monsoon precipitation, which influences the isotopic composition of the input vapor to East Asia, and (2) the isotopic composition of pre-monsoon and monsoon exhibits a large difference, and the seasonality of precipitation may have shifted in response to insolation. Motivated the fact that the magnitude of Asian monsoon d18O was not reproduced by most climate models, here I show new results, using the fully coupled GFDL model, that precipitation increases when the northern hemisphere receives more summer insolation, similar to the original claim. I argue that previous models do not produce enough rainfall during the monsoon season, possibly because the westerly jet is located too north in relation to the Tibetan Plateau during the monsoon season. I conclude that Asian monsoon intensity probably increases with increasing insolation there, given a large change in speleothem d18O. My next step will be testing this hypothesis after incorporating isotopes into the GFDL model.

Highly Improved Predictability in the Forecasting of the East Asian Summer Monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, E.; Chase, T. N.; Rajagopalan, B.

2007-12-01

The East Asian summer monsoon greatly influences the lives and property of about a quarter of all the people in the world. However, the predictability of the monsoon is very low in comparison with that of Indian summer monsoon because of the complexity of the system which involves both tropical and sub-tropical climates. Previous monsoon prediction models emphasized ocean factors as the primary monsoon forcing. Here we show that pre-season land surface cover is at least as important as ocean indices. A new statistical forecast model of the East Asian summer monsoon using land cover conditions in addition to ocean heat sources doubles the predictability relative to a model using ocean factors alone. This work highlights the, as yet, undocumented importance of seasonal land cover in monsoon prediction and the role of the biosphere in the climate system as a whole. We also detail the physical mechanisms involved in these land surface forcings.

Estimation and prediction of maximum daily rainfall at Sagar Island using best fit probability models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandal, S.; Choudhury, B. U.

2015-07-01

Sagar Island, setting on the continental shelf of Bay of Bengal, is one of the most vulnerable deltas to the occurrence of extreme rainfall-driven climatic hazards. Information on probability of occurrence of maximum daily rainfall will be useful in devising risk management for sustaining rainfed agrarian economy vis-a-vis food and livelihood security. Using six probability distribution models and long-term (1982-2010) daily rainfall data, we studied the probability of occurrence of annual, seasonal and monthly maximum daily rainfall (MDR) in the island. To select the best fit distribution models for annual, seasonal and monthly time series based on maximum rank with minimum value of test statistics, three statistical goodness of fit tests, viz. Kolmogorove-Smirnov test (K-S), Anderson Darling test ( A 2 ) and Chi-Square test ( X 2) were employed. The fourth probability distribution was identified from the highest overall score obtained from the three goodness of fit tests. Results revealed that normal probability distribution was best fitted for annual, post-monsoon and summer seasons MDR, while Lognormal, Weibull and Pearson 5 were best fitted for pre-monsoon, monsoon and winter seasons, respectively. The estimated annual MDR were 50, 69, 86, 106 and 114 mm for return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20 and 25 years, respectively. The probability of getting an annual MDR of >50, >100, >150, >200 and >250 mm were estimated as 99, 85, 40, 12 and 03 % level of exceedance, respectively. The monsoon, summer and winter seasons exhibited comparatively higher probabilities (78 to 85 %) for MDR of >100 mm and moderate probabilities (37 to 46 %) for >150 mm. For different recurrence intervals, the percent probability of MDR varied widely across intra- and inter-annual periods. In the island, rainfall anomaly can pose a climatic threat to the sustainability of agricultural production and thus needs adequate adaptation and mitigation measures.

Indian monsoon variability on millennial-orbital timescales

PubMed Central

Kathayat, Gayatri; Cheng, Hai; Sinha, Ashish; Spötl, Christoph; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Zhang, Haiwei; Li, Xianglei; Yi, Liang; Ning, Youfeng; Cai, Yanjun; Lui, Weiguo Lui; Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.

2016-01-01

The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) monsoon is critical to billions of people living in the region. Yet, significant debates remain on primary ISM drivers on millennial-orbital timescales. Here, we use speleothem oxygen isotope (δ18O) data from Bittoo cave, Northern India to reconstruct ISM variability over the past 280,000 years. We find strong coherence between North Indian and Chinese speleothem δ18O records from the East Asian monsoon domain, suggesting that both Asian monsoon subsystems exhibit a coupled response to changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation (NHSI) without significant temporal lags, supporting the view that the tropical-subtropical monsoon variability is driven directly by precession-induced changes in NHSI. Comparisons of the North Indian record with both Antarctic ice core and sea-surface temperature records from the southern Indian Ocean over the last glacial period do not suggest a dominant role of Southern Hemisphere climate processes in regulating the ISM variability on millennial-orbital timescales. PMID:27071753

Indian monsoon variability on millennial-orbital timescales.

PubMed

Kathayat, Gayatri; Cheng, Hai; Sinha, Ashish; Spötl, Christoph; Edwards, R Lawrence; Zhang, Haiwei; Li, Xianglei; Yi, Liang; Ning, Youfeng; Cai, Yanjun; Lui, Weiguo Lui; Breitenbach, Sebastian F M

2016-04-13

The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) monsoon is critical to billions of people living in the region. Yet, significant debates remain on primary ISM drivers on millennial-orbital timescales. Here, we use speleothem oxygen isotope (δ(18)O) data from Bittoo cave, Northern India to reconstruct ISM variability over the past 280,000 years. We find strong coherence between North Indian and Chinese speleothem δ(18)O records from the East Asian monsoon domain, suggesting that both Asian monsoon subsystems exhibit a coupled response to changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation (NHSI) without significant temporal lags, supporting the view that the tropical-subtropical monsoon variability is driven directly by precession-induced changes in NHSI. Comparisons of the North Indian record with both Antarctic ice core and sea-surface temperature records from the southern Indian Ocean over the last glacial period do not suggest a dominant role of Southern Hemisphere climate processes in regulating the ISM variability on millennial-orbital timescales.

Long-term study of aerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction over the eastern part of India using satellite observations during pre-monsoon season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kant, Sunny; Panda, Jagabandhu; Pani, Shantanu Kumar; Wang, Pao K.

2018-05-01

This study attempts to analyze possible aerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction over the eastern part of India including Bhubaneswar city and the whole Odisha region primarily using a long-term satellite-based dataset from 2000 to 2016 during pre-monsoon period. Relationship between aerosol optical depth (AOD), rainfall, and cloud properties is examined by taking convectively driven rain events. The two-sample student's t test is used to compute "p" value of datasets that are statically significant. Role of aerosols in governing cloud properties is analyzed through the variation of COD (cloud optical depth) and CER (cloud effective radius) in the AOD ranges 0.2-0.8. A relatively stronger and affirmative AOD-CER relationship is observed over Bhubaneswar city compared to Odisha region though the aerosols still play an appreciable role for the later too. The AOD-COD relationship is weak over both the regions. For Odisha, relationships between aerosol and cloud parameters are insignificant irrespective of rainfall regimes. Fostering of heavy rainfall over these regions takes place due to invigoration and microphysical effect during pre-monsoon months, depending upon meteorological conditions. Liquid water content and presence of a mixed-phase zone, both seem to be quite important in the convectively driven precipitation over Odisha region including Bhubaneswar city.

Evaluating the influence of antecedent soil moisture on variability of the North American Monsoon precipitation in the coupled MM5/VIC modeling system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhu, Chunmei; Leung, Lai R.; Gochis, David

2009-11-29

The influence of antecedent soil moisture on North American monsoon system (NAMS) precipitation variability was explored using the MM5 mesoscale model coupled with the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model. Sensitivity experiments were performed with extreme wet and dry initial soil moisture conditions for both the 1984 wet monsoon year and the 1989 dry year. The MM5-VIC model reproduced the key features of NAMS in 1984 and 1989 especially over northwestern Mexico. Our modeling results indicate that the land surface has memory of the initial soil wetness prescribed at the onset of the monsoon that persists over most ofmore » the region well into the monsoon season (e.g. until August). However, in contrast to the classical thermal contrast concept, where wetter soils lead to cooler surface temperatures, less land-sea thermal contrast, weaker monsoon circulations and less precipitation, the coupled model consistently demonstrated a positive soil moisture – precipitation feedback. Specifically, anomalously wet premonsoon soil moisture always lead to enhanced monsoon precipitation, and the reverse was also true. The surface temperature changes induced by differences in surface energy flux partitioning associated with pre-monsoon soil moisture anomalies changed the surface pressure and consequently the flow field in the coupled model, which in turn changed moisture convergence and, accordingly, precipitation patterns. Both the largescale circulation change and local land-atmospheric interactions in response to premonsoon soil moisture anomalies play important roles in the coupled model’s positive soil moisture monsoon precipitation feedback. However, the former may be sensitive to the strength and location of the thermal anomalies, thus leaving open the possibility of both positive and negative soil moisture precipitation feedbacks.« less

Numerical Simulation of the Large-Scale North American Monsoon Water Sources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bosilovich, Michael G.; Sud, Yogesh C.; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Walker, Gregory K.

2002-01-01

A general circulation model (GCM) that includes water vapor tracer (WVT) diagnostics is used to delineate the dominant sources of water vapor for precipitation during the North American monsoon. A 15-year model simulation carried out with one-degree horizontal resolution and time varying sea surface temperature is able to produce reasonable large-scale features of the monsoon precipitation. Within the core of the Mexican monsoon, continental sources provide much of the water for precipitation. Away from the Mexican monsoon (eastern Mexico and Texas), continental sources generally decrease with monsoon onset. Tropical Atlantic Ocean sources of water gain influence in the southern Great Plains states where the total precipitation decreases during the monsoon onset. Pacific ocean sources do contribute to the monsoon, but tend to be weaker after onset. Evaluating the development of the monsoons, soil water and surface evaporation prior to monsoon onset do not correlate with the eventual monsoon intensity. However, the most intense monsoons do use more local sources of water than the least intense monsoons, but only after the onset. This suggests that precipitation recycling is an important factor in monsoon intensity.

Daily mean temperature estimate at the US SUFRAD stations as an average of the maximum and minimum temperatures

DOE PAGES

Chylek, Petr; Augustine, John A.; Klett, James D.; ...

2017-09-30

At thousands of stations worldwide, the mean daily surface air temperature is estimated as a mean of the daily maximum (T max) and minimum (T min) temperatures. In this paper, we use the NOAA Surface Radiation Budget Network (SURFRAD) of seven US stations with surface air temperature recorded each minute to assess the accuracy of the mean daily temperature estimate as an average of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures and to investigate how the accuracy of the estimate increases with an increasing number of daily temperature observations. We find the average difference between the estimate based on an averagemore » of the maximum and minimum temperatures and the average of 1440 1-min daily observations to be - 0.05 ± 1.56 °C, based on analyses of a sample of 238 days of temperature observations. Considering determination of the daily mean temperature based on 3, 4, 6, 12, or 24 daily temperature observations, we find that 2, 4, or 6 daily observations do not reduce significantly the uncertainty of the daily mean temperature. The bias reduction in a statistically significant manner (95% confidence level) occurs only with 12 or 24 daily observations. The daily mean temperature determination based on 24 hourly observations reduces the sample daily temperature uncertainty to - 0.01 ± 0.20 °C. Finally, estimating the parameters of population of all SURFRAD observations, the 95% confidence intervals based on 24 hourly measurements is from - 0.025 to 0.004 °C, compared to a confidence interval from - 0.15 to 0.05 °C based on the mean of T max and T min.« less

Daily mean temperature estimate at the US SUFRAD stations as an average of the maximum and minimum temperatures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chylek, Petr; Augustine, John A.; Klett, James D.

At thousands of stations worldwide, the mean daily surface air temperature is estimated as a mean of the daily maximum (T max) and minimum (T min) temperatures. In this paper, we use the NOAA Surface Radiation Budget Network (SURFRAD) of seven US stations with surface air temperature recorded each minute to assess the accuracy of the mean daily temperature estimate as an average of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures and to investigate how the accuracy of the estimate increases with an increasing number of daily temperature observations. We find the average difference between the estimate based on an averagemore » of the maximum and minimum temperatures and the average of 1440 1-min daily observations to be - 0.05 ± 1.56 °C, based on analyses of a sample of 238 days of temperature observations. Considering determination of the daily mean temperature based on 3, 4, 6, 12, or 24 daily temperature observations, we find that 2, 4, or 6 daily observations do not reduce significantly the uncertainty of the daily mean temperature. The bias reduction in a statistically significant manner (95% confidence level) occurs only with 12 or 24 daily observations. The daily mean temperature determination based on 24 hourly observations reduces the sample daily temperature uncertainty to - 0.01 ± 0.20 °C. Finally, estimating the parameters of population of all SURFRAD observations, the 95% confidence intervals based on 24 hourly measurements is from - 0.025 to 0.004 °C, compared to a confidence interval from - 0.15 to 0.05 °C based on the mean of T max and T min.« less

Source of moist air for the Asian summer monsoon lower stratosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, K.; Fu, R.; Wang, T.

2015-12-01

The Asian monsoon region is the most prominent moist center of lower stratospheric (LS) water vapor during boreal summer. However, the origin of such moist air is still unclear. Using Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) satellite observations and a domain-filling forward trajectory model, we show that moist air originates mostly from the western Asian Monsoon region where dehydration temperatures are warmer than those on the eastside of the Asian monsoon region. On seasonal scale, a shift of convective and dehydration center from the eastern to western monsoon region from early to late summer may contribute to the increase of LS water vapor over the Asian monsoon region. An increasing convection over the west side of the monsoon region can significantly moisten the LS. Air detrained from convection ascends with enhanced large-scale rising motion and dehydrate mostly within this region under warmer temperature, thus anomalously higher water vapor concentration. After final dehydration, water vapor anomalies show an upper-eastward propagation across the Asian monsoon region. This is primarily due to that air parcels tend to arise across the tropopause layer over the western region (eastern Iranian Plateau and northwestern India) after final dehydration as simulated by the trajectory model. This work highlights the importance of transport pathway shift, induced by the convective regime shift, on both seasonal and intraseasonal variations of water vapor in the Asian monsoon LS.

Aerosol and monsoon climate interactions over Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhanqing; Lau, W. K.-M.; Ramanathan, V.; Wu, G.; Ding, Y.; Manoj, M. G.; Liu, J.; Qian, Y.; Li, J.; Zhou, T.; Fan, J.; Rosenfeld, D.; Ming, Y.; Wang, Y.; Huang, J.; Wang, B.; Xu, X.; Lee, S.-S.; Cribb, M.; Zhang, F.; Yang, X.; Zhao, C.; Takemura, T.; Wang, K.; Xia, X.; Yin, Y.; Zhang, H.; Guo, J.; Zhai, P. M.; Sugimoto, N.; Babu, S. S.; Brasseur, G. P.

2016-12-01

The increasing severity of droughts/floods and worsening air quality from increasing aerosols in Asia monsoon regions are the two gravest threats facing over 60% of the world population living in Asian monsoon regions. These dual threats have fueled a large body of research in the last decade on the roles of aerosols in impacting Asian monsoon weather and climate. This paper provides a comprehensive review of studies on Asian aerosols, monsoons, and their interactions. The Asian monsoon region is a primary source of emissions of diverse species of aerosols from both anthropogenic and natural origins. The distributions of aerosol loading are strongly influenced by distinct weather and climatic regimes, which are, in turn, modulated by aerosol effects. On a continental scale, aerosols reduce surface insolation and weaken the land-ocean thermal contrast, thus inhibiting the development of monsoons. Locally, aerosol radiative effects alter the thermodynamic stability and convective potential of the lower atmosphere leading to reduced temperatures, increased atmospheric stability, and weakened wind and atmospheric circulations. The atmospheric thermodynamic state, which determines the formation of clouds, convection, and precipitation, may also be altered by aerosols serving as cloud condensation nuclei or ice nuclei. Absorbing aerosols such as black carbon and desert dust in Asian monsoon regions may also induce dynamical feedback processes, leading to a strengthening of the early monsoon and affecting the subsequent evolution of the monsoon. Many mechanisms have been put forth regarding how aerosols modulate the amplitude, frequency, intensity, and phase of different monsoon climate variables. A wide range of theoretical, observational, and modeling findings on the Asian monsoon, aerosols, and their interactions are synthesized. A new paradigm is proposed on investigating aerosol-monsoon interactions, in which natural aerosols such as desert dust, black carbon from

Pleistocene Indian Monsoon Rainfall Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yirgaw, D. G.; Hathorne, E. C.; Giosan, L.; Collett, T. S.; Sijingeo, A. V.; Nath, B. N.; Frank, M.

2014-12-01

The past variability of the Indian Monsoon is mostly known from records of wind strength over the Arabian Sea. Here we investigate proxies for fresh water input and runoff in a region of strong monsoon precipitation that is a major moisture source for the east Asian Monsoon. A sediment core obtained by the IODP vessel JOIDES Resolution and a gravity core from the Alcock Seamount complex in the Andaman Sea are used to examine the past monsoon variability on the Indian sub-continent and directly over the ocean. The current dataset covers the last glacial and deglacial but will eventually provide a Pleistocene record. We utilise the ecological habitats of G. sacculifer and N. dutertrei to investigate the freshwater-induced stratification with paired Mg/Ca and δ18O analyses to estimate seawater δ18O (δ18Osw). During the last 60 kyrs, Ba/Ca ratios and δ18Osw values generally agree well between the two cores and suggest the weakest surface runoff and monsoon during the LGM and strongest monsoon during the Holocene. The difference in δ18O between the species, interpreted as a proxy for upper ocean stratification, implies stratification developed around 37 ka and remained relatively constant during the LGM, deglacial and Holocene. To investigate monsoon variability for intervals in the past, single shell Mg/Ca and δ18O analyses have been conducted. Mg/Ca ratios from individual shells of N. dutertrei suggest relatively small changes in temperature. However, individual N. dutertrei δ18O differ greatly between the mid-Holocene and samples from the LGM and a nearby core top. The mid-Holocene individuals have a greater range and large skew towards negative values indicating greater fresh water influence.

Analysis of trend in temperature and rainfall time series of an Indian arid region: comparative evaluation of salient techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Machiwal, Deepesh; Gupta, Ankit; Jha, Madan Kumar; Kamble, Trupti

2018-04-01

This study investigated trends in 35 years (1979-2013) temperature (maximum, Tmax and minimum, Tmin) and rainfall at annual and seasonal (pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter) scales for 31 grid points in a coastal arid region of India. Box-whisker plots of annual temperature and rainfall time series depict systematic spatial gradients. Trends were examined by applying eight tests, such as Kendall rank correlation (KRC), Spearman rank order correlation (SROC), Mann-Kendall (MK), four modified MK tests, and innovative trend analysis (ITA). Trend magnitudes were quantified by Sen's slope estimator, and a new method was adopted to assess the significance of linear trends in MK-test statistics. It was found that the significant serial correlation is prominent in the annual and post-monsoon Tmax and Tmin, and pre-monsoon Tmin. The KRC and MK tests yielded similar results in close resemblance with the SROC test. The performance of two modified MK tests considering variance-correction approaches was found superior to the KRC, MK, modified MK with pre-whitening, and ITA tests. The performance of original MK test is poor due to the presence of serial correlation, whereas the ITA method is over-sensitive in identifying trends. Significantly increasing trends are more prominent in Tmin than Tmax. Further, both the annual and monsoon rainfall time series have a significantly increasing trend of 9 mm year-1. The sequential significance of linear trend in MK test-statistics is very strong (R 2 ≥ 0.90) in the annual and pre-monsoon Tmin (90% grid points), and strong (R 2 ≥ 0.75) in monsoon Tmax (68% grid points), monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter Tmin (respectively 65, 55, and 48% grid points), as well as in the annual and monsoon rainfalls (respectively 68 and 61% grid points). Finally, this study recommends use of variance-corrected MK test for the precise identification of trends. It is emphasized that the rising Tmax may hamper crop growth due to enhanced

Cross tropopause flux observed at sub-daily scales over the south Indian monsoon regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hemanth Kumar, A.; Venkat Ratnam, M.; Sunilkumar, S. V.; Parameswaran, K.; Krishna Murthy, B. V.

2018-03-01

The effect of deep convection on the thermal structure and dynamics of the tropical tropopause at sub daily scales is investigated using data from radiosondes launched over two sites in the Indian Monsoon region (Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E) and Trivandrum (8.5°N, 76.9°E)) conducted between December 2010 and March 2014. The data from these soundings are classified into 5 convective categories based on the past, present and future cloudiness over the launching region after the radiosonde has reached tropopause altitude. They are denoted as category 1 (no convection), category 2 (convection may occur in any of the next 3 h), category 3 (convection occurred prior 3 h), category 4 (convection terminated within 3 h of launching) and category 5 (convection persistent throughout the considered period). The anomalies from the background in temperature, relative humidity and wind speed are grouped into the aforementioned five different convective categories for both the stations. Cooling and moisture anomalies are found during the active convection (category 5). The horizontal wind speed showed a strong anomaly indicating the presence of synoptic scale features. Vertical wind obtained simultaneously from the MST radar over Gadanki clearly showed strong updraft during the active convection. The ozone profiles from ozonesondes launched during the same period are also segregated according to the above convective categories. During the active convection, high and low ozone values are found in the upper troposphere and the lower troposphere, respectively. The cross tropopause ozone mass flux and vertical wind at the tropopause and convective outflow level estimated from the ozonesonde, and MST radar/ERA-Interim data showed positive values indicating the transport of ozone between troposphere and stratosphere during deep convection. Similarly, the total mass flux crossing the cold point tropopause over Gadanki showed upward flux during the active convection. The variability of

Dynamics of Monsoon-Induced Biennial Variability in ENSO

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Kyu-Myong; Lau, K.-M.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The mechanism of the quasi-biennial tendency in El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-monsoon coupled system is investigated using an intermediate coupled model. The monsoon wind forcing is prescribed as a function of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies based on the relationship between zonal wind anomalies over the western Pacific to sea level change in the equatorial eastern Pacific. The key mechanism of quasi-biennial tendency in El Nino evolution is found to be in the strong coupling of ENSO to monsoon wind forcing over the western Pacific. Strong boreal summer monsoon wind forcing, which lags the maximum SST anomaly in the equatorial eastern Pacific approximately 6 months, tends to generate Kelvin waves of the opposite sign to anomalies in the eastern Pacific and initiates the turnabout in the eastern Pacific. Boreal winter monsoon forcing, which has zero lag with maximum SST in the equatorial eastern Pacific, tends to damp the ENSO oscillations.

Monsoon Rainfall and Landslides in Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dahal, R. K.; Hasegawa, S.; Bhandary, N. P.; Yatabe, R.

2009-12-01

A large number of human settlements on the Nepal Himalayas are situated either on old landslide mass or on landslide-prone areas. As a result, a great number of people are affected by large- and small-scale landslides all over the Himalayas especially during monsoon periods. In Nepal, only in the half monsoon period (June 10 to August 15), 70, 50 and 68 people were killed from landslides in 2007, 2008 and 2009, respectively. In this context, this paper highlights monsoon rainfall and their implications in the Nepal Himalaya. In Nepal, monsoon is major source of rainfall in summer and approximately 80% of the annual total rainfall occurs from June to September. The measured values of mean annual precipitation in Nepal range from a low of approximately 250 mm at area north of the Himalaya to many areas exceeding 6,000 mm. The mean annual rainfall varying between 1500 mm and 2500 mm predominate over most of the country. In Nepal, the daily distribution of precipitation during rainy season is also uneven. Sometime 10% of the total annual precipitation can occur in a single day. Similarly, 50% total annual rainfall also can occur within 10 days of monsoon. This type of uneven distribution plays an important role in triggering many landslides in Nepal. When spatial distribution of landslides was evaluated from record of more than 650 landslides, it is found that more landslides events were concentrated at central Nepal in the area of high mean annual rainfall. When monsoon rainfall and landslide relationship was taken into consideration, it was noticed that a considerable number of landslides were triggered in the Himalaya by continuous rainfall of 3 to 90 days. It has been noticed that continuous rainfall of few days (5 days or 7 days or 10 days) are usually responsible for landsliding in the Nepal Himalaya. Monsoon rains usually fall with interruptions of 2-3 days and are generally characterized by low intensity and long duration. Thus, there is a strong role of

Water vapour variability during Indian monsoon over Trivandrum observed using Microwave Radiometer and GPS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raju, Suresh C.; Krishna Moorthy, K.; Ramachandran Pillai, Renju; Uma, K. N.; Saha, Korak

2012-07-01

The Indian summer monsoon is a highly regular synoptic event, providing most of the annual rainfall received over the sub-continent. Trivandrum, at the southwestern tip of Indian peninsula, is considered as the gate way of Indian monsoon, with its climatological onset on June 01. During this season, the region, experiences large seasonal variation in water vapor, rain fall and wind (speed and direction) in the troposphere. The variability in water vapor and wind information are the vital parameters in forecasting the onset of monsoon. This study focuses on water vapor measurements over the tropical coastal station Trivandrum (8.5oN & 76.9oE) using microwave techniques and the analyses with an effort to link the seasonal variability of water vapor with the onset of monsoon. At Trivandrum a hyper-spectral microwave radiometer profiler (MRP) and a Triple-frequency global positioning system receiver (GPS) have been in regular operation since April 2010. A station-dependent simple empirical relation suitable for the equatorial atmospheric condition is formulated to map the nonhydrostatic component of GPS tropospheric delay to the PWV, based on the columnar water vapor estimated from the multi-year daily radiosonde ascends from Trivandrum. A trained artificial neural network (ANN) with climatological atmospheric data of Trivandrum, is employed to derive the water vapor from the MRP brightness temperature measurements. The accuracy, reliability and consistency of PWV measurements over the tropical coastal station from these two independent instruments are assessed by comparing PWV derived from MRP and GPS measurements which resulted an rms deviation of <1.2mm (with correlation coefficient of ~0.98). This confirms the PWV derived over Trivandrum from microwave measurements are accurate even during the monsoon period in the presence of clouds and rain. PWV from microwave radiometer measurements for more than two years are used to study the water vapour variability during

Assessment of the 1997-1998 Asian Monsoon Anomalies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K.-M.; Wu, H.-T.

1999-01-01

Using State-of-the-art satellite-gauge monthly rainfall estimate and optimally interpolated sea surface temperature (SST) data, we have assessed the 1997-98 Asian monsoon anomalies in terms of three basic causal factors: basin-scale SST, regional coupling, and internal variability. Singular Value Decomposition analysis of rainfall and SST are carried out globally over the entire tropics and regionally over the Asian monsoon domain. Contributions to monsoon rainfall predictability by various factors are evaluated from cumulative anomaly correlation with dominant regional SVD modes. Results reveal a dominant, large-scale monsoon-El Nino coupled mode with well-defined centers of action in the near-equatorial monsoon regions. it is noted that some subcontinental regions such as all-India, or arbitrarily chosen land regions over East Asia, while important socio-economically, are not near the centers of influence from El Nino, hence are not necessarily representative of the response of the entire monsoon region to El Nino. The observed 1997-98 Asian monsoon anomalies are found to be very complex with approximately 34% of the anomalies attributable to basin- scale SST influence associated with El Nino. Regional coupled processes contribute an additional 19%, leaving about 47% due to internal dynamics. Also noted is that the highest monsoon predictability is not necessary associated with major El Nino events (e.g. 1997, 1982) but rather in non-El Nino years (e.g. 1980, 1988) when contributions from the regional coupled modes far exceed those from the basin-scale SST. The results suggest that in order to improve monsoon seasonal-to-interannual predictability, there is a need to exploit not only monsoon-El Nino relationship, but also monsoon regional coupled processes and their modulation by long-term climate change.

Evaluation of different rainfall products over India for the summer monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prakash, Satya; Mitra, Ashis; Turner, Andrew; Collins, Mathew; AchutoRao, Krishna

2015-04-01

Summer rainfall over India forms an integral part of the Asian monsoon, which plays a key role in the global water cycle and climate system through coupled atmospheric and oceanic processes. Accurate prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall and its variability at various spatiotemporal scales are crucial for agriculture, water resources and hydroelectric-power sectors. Reliable rainfall observations are very important for verification of numerical model outputs and model development. However, high spatiotemporal variability of rainfall makes it difficult to measure adequately with ground-based instruments over a large region of various surface types from deserts to oceans. A number of multi-satellite rainfall products are available to users at different spatial and temporal scales. Each rainfall product has some advantages as well as limitations, hence it is essential to find a suitable region-specific data set among these rainfall products for a particular user application, such as water resources, agricultural modelling etc. In this study, we examine seasonal-mean and daily rainfall datasets for monsoon model validation. First, six multi-satellite and gauge-only rainfall products were evaluated over India at seasonal scale for 27 (JJAS 1979-2005) summer monsoon seasons against gridded 0.5-degree IMD gauge-based rainfall. Various skill metrics are computed to assess the potential of these data sets in representation of large-scale monsoon rainfall at all-India and sub-regional scales. Among the gauge-only data sets, APHRODITE and GPCC appear to outperform the others whereas GPCP is better than CMAP in the merged multi-satellite category. However, there are significant differences among these data sets indicating uncertainty in the observed rainfall over this region, with important implications for the evaluation of model simulations. At the daily scale, TRMM TMPA-3B42 is one of the best available products and is widely used for various hydro

The South Asian Monsoon and the Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meehl, Gerald A.

1997-08-01

A mechanism is described that involves the south Asian monsoon as an active part of the tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO) described in previous studies. This mechanism depends on coupled land-atmosphere-ocean interactions in the Indian sector, large-scale atmospheric east-west circulations in the Tropics, convective heating anomalies over Africa and the Pacific, and tropical-midlatitude interactions in the Northern Hemisphere. A key element for the monsoon role in the TBO is land-sea or meridional tropospheric temperature contrast, with area-averaged surface temperature anomalies over south Asia that are able to persist on a 1-yr timescale without the heat storage characteristics that contribute to this memory mechanism in the ocean. Results from a global coupled general circulation model show that soil moisture anomalies contribute to land-surface temperature anomalies (through latent heat flux anomalies) for only one season after the summer monsoon. A global atmospheric GCM in perpetual January mode is run with observed SSTs with specified convective heating anomalies to demonstrate that convective heating anomalies elsewhere in the Tropics associated with the coupled ocean-atmosphere biennial mechanism can contribute to altering seasonal midlatitude circulation. These changes in the midlatitude longwave pattern, forced by a combination of tropical convective heating anomalies over East Africa, Southeast Asia, and the western Pacific (in association with SST anomalies), are then able to maintain temperature anomalies over south Asia via advection through winter and spring to set up the land-sea meridional tropospheric temperature contrast for the subsequent monsoon. The role of the Indian Ocean, then, is to provide a moisture source and a low-amplitude coupled response component for meridional temperature contrast to help drive the south Asian monsoon. The role of the Pacific is to produce shifts in regionally coupled convection-SST anomalies. These regions

Vertical structure of atmospheric boundary layer over Ranchi during the summer monsoon season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandra, Sagarika; Srivastava, Nishi; Kumar, Manoj

2018-04-01

Thermodynamic structure and variability in the atmospheric boundary layer have been investigated with the help of balloon-borne GPS radiosonde over a monsoon trough station Ranchi (Lat. 23°45'N, Long. 85°43'E, India) during the summer monsoon season (June-September) for a period of 2011-2013. Virtual potential temperature gradient method is used for the determination of mixed layer height (MLH). The MLH has been found to vary in the range of 1000-1300 m during the onset, 600-900 m during the active and 1400-1750 m during the break phase of monsoon over this region. Inter-annual variations noticed in MLH could be associated with inter-annual variability in convection and rainfall prevailing over the region. Along with the MLH, the cloud layer heights are also derived from the thermodynamic profiles for the onset, active and break phases of monsoon. Cloud layer height varied a lot during different phases of the monsoon. For the determination of boundary-layer convection, thermodynamic parameter difference (δθ = θ es- θ e) between saturated equivalent potential temperature (θ es ) and equivalent potential temperature (θ e) is used. It is a good indicator of convection and indicates the intense and suppressed convection during different phases of monsoon.

Projected Changes in the Asian-Australian Monsoon Region in 1.5°C and 2.0°C Global-Warming Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chevuturi, Amulya; Klingaman, Nicholas P.; Turner, Andrew G.; Hannah, Shaun

2018-03-01

In light of the Paris Agreement, it is essential to identify regional impacts of half a degree additional global warming to inform climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. We investigate the effects of 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming above preindustrial conditions, relative to present day (2006-2015), over the Asian-Australian monsoon region (AAMR) using five models from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project. There is considerable intermodel variability in projected changes to mean climate and extreme events in 2.0°C and 1.5°C scenarios. There is high confidence in projected increases to mean and extreme surface temperatures over AAMR, as well as more-frequent persistent daily temperature extremes over East Asia, Australia, and northern India with an additional 0.5°C warming, which are likely to occur. Mean and extreme monsoon precipitation amplify over AAMR, except over Australia at 1.5°C where there is uncertainty in the sign of the change. Persistent daily extreme precipitation events are likely to become more frequent over parts of East Asia and India with an additional 0.5°C warming. There is lower confidence in projections of precipitation change than in projections of surface temperature change. These results highlight the benefits of limiting the global-mean temperature change to 1.5°C above preindustrial, as the severity of the above effects increases with an extra 0.5°C warming.

Tropical cyclone influence on the long-term variability of Philippine summer monsoon onset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kubota, Hisayuki; Shirooka, Ryuichi; Matsumoto, Jun; Cayanan, Esperanza O.; Hilario, Flaviana D.

2017-12-01

The long-term variability of Philippine summer monsoon onset from 1903 to 2013 was investigated. The onset date is defined by daily rainfall data at eight stations in the northwestern Philippines. Summer monsoons tended to start earlier in May after the mid-1990s. Other early onset periods were found during the 1900s, 1920s, and 1930s, and an interdecadal variability of summer monsoon onset was identified. Independent surface wind data observed by ships in the South China Sea (SCS) revealed prevailing westerly wind in May during the early monsoon onset period. To identify atmospheric structures that trigger Philippine summer monsoon onset, we focused on the year 2013, conducting intensive upper-air observations. Tropical cyclone (TC) Yagi traveled northward in the Philippine Sea (PS) in 2013 and triggered the Philippine monsoon onset by intensifying moist low-level southwesterly wind in the southwestern Philippines and intensifying low-level southerly wind after the monsoon onset in the northwestern Philippines. The influence of TC was analyzed by the probability of the existence of TC in the PS and the SCS since 1951, which was found to be significantly correlated with the Philippine summer monsoon onset date. After the mid-1990s, early monsoon onset was influenced by active TC formation in the PS and the SCS. However, the role of TC activity decreased during the late summer monsoon periods. In general, it was found that TC activity in the PS and the SCS plays a key role in initiating Philippine summer monsoon onset. [Figure not available: see fulltext.

Linkages of Remote Sea Surface Temperatures and Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity Mediated by the African Monsoon

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Taraphdar, Sourav; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Hagos, Samson M.

2015-01-28

Warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in North Atlantic and Mediterranean (NAMED) can influence tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the tropical East Atlantic by modulating summer convection over western Africa. Analysis of 30 years of observations show that the NAMED SST is linked to a strengthening of the Saharan heat low and enhancement of moisture and moist static energy in the lower atmosphere over West Africa, which favors a northward displacement of the monsoonal front. These processes also lead to a northward shift of the African easterly jet that introduces an anomalous positive vorticity from western Africa to the main developmentmore » region (50W–20E; 10N–20N) of Atlantic TC. By modulating multiple processes associated with the African monsoon, this study demonstrates that warm NAMED SST explains 8% of interannual variability of Atlantic TC frequency. Thus NAME SST may provide useful predictability for Atlantic TC activity on seasonal-to-interannual time scale.« less

The Monsoon Erosion Pump and the Indian Monsoon since Eocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giosan, L.

2017-12-01

Lack of consensus on the Neogene establishment and evolution of the Indian Monsoon is remarkable after half a century of research. Conflicting interpretations point toward the possibility of periodic decoupling between monsoon winds and monsoon precipitation. Here I introduce the concept of a monsoon erosion pump based on terrestrial and oceanic records reconstructed from recent NGHP and IODP drilling and spanning the last 34 million years in the Bay of Bengal, Arabian and Andaman Seas. From millennial to orbital to tectonic timescales, these records suggest that vegetation land cover interacts and modulates the regime of erosion and weathering under perennial but variable monsoonal rain conditions. Under this new proposed paradigm the Indian monsoon exhibits two distinct flavours during the Neogene that can be largely explained by its heartbeat, or astronomical forcing, mediated by the global glacial state and interacting with the paleogeography of South Asia.

Association of cold temperature and mortality and effect modification in the subtropical plateau monsoon climate of Yuxi, China.

PubMed

Ding, Zan; Li, Liujiu; Wei, Ruqin; Dong, Wenya; Guo, Pi; Yang, Shaoyi; Liu, Ju; Zhang, Qingying

2016-10-01

Consistent evidence has shown excess mortality associated with cold temperature, but some important details of the cold-mortality association (e.g. slope and threshold) have not been adequately investigated and few studies focused on the cold effect in high-altitude areas of developing countries. We attempted to quantify the cold effect on mortality, identify the details, and evaluate effect modification in the distinct subtropical plateau monsoon climate of Yuxi, a high plateau region in southwest China. From daily mortality and meteorological data during 2009-2014, we used a quasi-Poisson model combined with a "natural cubic spline-natural cubic spline" distributed lag non-linear model to estimate the temperature-mortality relationship and then a simpler "hockey-stick" model to investigate the cold effect and details. Cold temperature was associated with increased mortality, and the relative risk of cold effect (1st relative to 10th temperature percentile) on non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality for lag 0-21 days was 1.40 (95% confidence interval: 1.19-1.66), 1.61 (1.28-2.02), and 1.13 (0.78-1.64), respectively. A 1°C decrease below a cold threshold of 9.1°C (8th percentile) for lags 0-21 was associated with a 7.35% (3.75-11.09%) increase in non-accidental mortality. The cold-mortality association was not significantly affected by cause-specific mortality, gender, age, marital status, ethnicity, occupation, or previous history of hypertension. There is an adverse impact of cold on mortality in Yuxi, China, and a temperature of 9.1°C is an important cut-off for cold-related mortality for residents. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Both temperature fluctuations and East Asian monsoons have driven plant diversification in the karst ecosystems from southern China.

PubMed

Kong, Hanghui; Condamine, Fabien L; Harris, A J; Chen, Junlin; Pan, Bo; Möller, Michael; Hoang, Van Sam; Kang, Ming

2017-11-01

Karst ecosystems in southern China are species-rich and have high levels of endemism, yet little is known regarding the evolutionary processes responsible for the origin and diversification of karst biodiversity. The genus Primulina (Gesneriaceae) comprises ca. 170 species endemic to southern China with high levels of ecological (edaphic) specialization, providing an exceptional model to study the plant diversification in karsts. We used molecular data from nine chloroplast and 11 nuclear regions and macroevolutionary analyses to assess the origin and cause of species diversification due to palaeoenvironmental changes and edaphic specialization in Primulina. We found that speciation was positively associated with changes in past temperatures and East Asian monsoons through the evolutionary history of Primulina. Climatic change around the mid-Miocene triggered an early burst followed by a slowdown of diversification rate towards the present with the climate cooling. We detected different speciation rates among edaphic types, and transitions among soil types were infrequently and did not impact the overall speciation rate. Our findings suggest that both global temperature changes and East Asian monsoons have played crucial roles in floristic diversification within the karst ecosystems in southern China, such that speciation was higher when climate was warmer and wetter. This is the first study to directly demonstrate that past monsoon activity is positively correlated with speciation rate in East Asia. This case study could motivate further investigations to assess the impacts of past environmental changes on the origin and diversification of biodiversity in global karst ecosystems, most of which are under threat. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability during 2014 and 2015 and associated Indo-Pacific upper ocean temperature patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kakatkar, Rashmi; Gnanaseelan, C.; Chowdary, J. S.; Parekh, Anant; Deepa, J. S.

2018-02-01

In this study, factors responsible for the deficit Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall in 2014 and 2015 and the ability of Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology-Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (IITM-GODAS) in representing the oceanic features are examined. IITM-GODAS has been used to provide initial conditions for seasonal forecast in India during 2014 and 2015. The years 2014 and 2015 witnessed deficit ISM rainfall but were evolved from two entirely different preconditions over Pacific. This raises concern over the present understanding of the role of Pacific Ocean on ISM variability. Analysis reveals that the mechanisms associated with the rainfall deficit over the Indian Subcontinent are different in the two years. It is found that remote forcing in summer of 2015 due to El Niño is mostly responsible for the deficit monsoon rainfall through changes in Walker circulation and large-scale subsidence. In the case of the summer of 2014, both local circulation with anomalous anticyclone over central India and intrusion of mid-latitude dry winds from north have contributed for the deficit rainfall. In addition to the above, Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST) and remote forcing from Pacific Ocean also modulated the ISM rainfall. It is observed that Pacific SST warming has extended westward in 2014, making it a basin scale warming unlike the strong El Niño year 2015. The eastern equatorial Indian Ocean is anomalously warmer than west in summer of 2014, and vice versa in 2015. These differences in SST in both tropical Pacific and TIO have considerable impact on ISM rainfall in 2014 and 2015. The study reveals that initializing coupled forecast models with proper upper ocean temperature over the Indo-Pacific is therefore essential for improved model forecast. It is important to note that the IITM-GODAS which assimilates only array for real-time geostrophic oceanography (ARGO) temperature and salinity profiles could capture most of the

Dominant Drivers of GCMs Errors in the Simulation of South Asian Summer Monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashfaq, Moetasim

2017-04-01

Accurate simulation of the South Asian summer monsoon (SAM) is a longstanding unresolved problem in climate modeling science. There has not been a benchmark effort to decipher the origin of undesired yet virtually invariable unsuccessfulness of general circulation models (GCMs) over this region. This study analyzes a large ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs to demonstrate that most of the simulation errors in the summer season and their driving mechanisms are systematic and of similar nature across the GCMs, with biases in meridional differential heating playing a critical role in determining the timing of monsoon onset over land, the magnitude of seasonal precipitation distribution and the trajectories of monsoon depressions. Errors in the pre-monsoon heat low over the lower latitudes and atmospheric latent heating over the slopes of Himalayas and Karakoram Range induce significant errors in the atmospheric circulations and meridional differential heating. Lack of timely precipitation over land further exacerbates such errors by limiting local moisture recycling and latent heating aloft from convection. Most of the summer monsoon errors and their sources are reproducible in the land-atmosphere configuration of a GCM when it is configured at horizontal grid spacing comparable to the CMIP5 GCMs. While an increase in resolution overcomes many modeling challenges, coarse resolution is not necessarily the primary driver in the exhibition of errors over South Asia. These results highlight the importance of previously less well known pre-monsoon mechanisms that critically influence the strength of SAM in the GCMs and highlight the importance of land-atmosphere interactions in the development and maintenance of SAM.

Strong impacts of daily minimum temperature on the green-up date and summer greenness of the Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Shen, Miaogen; Piao, Shilong; Chen, Xiaoqiu; An, Shuai; Fu, Yongshuo H; Wang, Shiping; Cong, Nan; Janssens, Ivan A

2016-09-01

Understanding vegetation responses to climate change on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) helps in elucidating the land-atmosphere energy exchange, which affects air mass movement over and around the TP. Although the TP is one of the world's most sensitive regions in terms of climatic warming, little is known about how the vegetation responds. Here, we focus on how spring phenology and summertime greenness respond to the asymmetric warming, that is, stronger warming during nighttime than during daytime. Using both in situ and satellite observations, we found that vegetation green-up date showed a stronger negative partial correlation with daily minimum temperature (Tmin ) than with maximum temperature (Tmax ) before the growing season ('preseason' henceforth). Summer vegetation greenness was strongly positively correlated with summer Tmin , but negatively with Tmax . A 1-K increase in preseason Tmin advanced green-up date by 4 days (P < 0.05) and in summer enhanced greenness by 3.6% relative to the mean greenness during 2000-2004 (P < 0.01). In contrast, increases in preseason Tmax did not advance green-up date (P > 0.10) and higher summer Tmax even reduced greenness by 2.6% K(-1) (P < 0.05). The stimulating effects of increasing Tmin were likely caused by reduced low temperature constraints, and the apparent negative effects of higher Tmax on greenness were probably due to the accompanying decline in water availability. The dominant enhancing effect of nighttime warming indicates that climatic warming will probably have stronger impact on TP ecosystems than on apparently similar Arctic ecosystems where vegetation is controlled mainly by Tmax . Our results are crucial for future improvements of dynamic vegetation models embedded in the Earth System Models which are being used to describe the behavior of the Asian monsoon. The results are significant because the state of the vegetation on the TP plays an important role in steering the monsoon. © 2016 John Wiley

On the Origin of Monsoon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chao, Winston C.; Chen, Baode

2000-01-01

Goddard general circulation model. The Asian and Australian monsoon circulations are obtained in a four-year integration and then the integration is repeated with Asia, the maritime continent, and Australia replaced by ocean. The sea surface temperature (SST) at each affected grid is specified as the SST at the first grid to the east that is an ocean grid in the first experiment. The latter integration shows that the monsoon circulation pattern over where south Asia and Australia were and the surrounding region has largely remained. The results discount land-sea contrast as the main cause of Asian monsoon. A third experiment is the same as the first except that the topography of Asia, the maritime continent, and Australia is reduced to zero. This experiment reveals that the difference between the first two experiments is due more to the removal of topography than to the removal of land-sea contrast. August precipitation is shown averaged over the last three years of each of the three experiments. They show that the Asian monsoon rainy region is largely intact in the second experiment and the difference between the second and the third experiment is mainly in the longitudinal location of the maximum precipitation. Additionally, in Asian and Australian winter monsoons land-sea contrast also plays only a modifying role. Although land-sea contrast plays only a modifying role in Asian and Australian (and Central American including Mexican) monsoons, it is the main reason that ITCZ (and thus monsoon) exists in Africa and South America. Thus, monsoons can be classified into two groups depending on whether land-sea contrast plays a major role.

Quantitative Estimation of the Impact of European Teleconnections on Interannual Variation of East Asian Winter Temperature and Monsoon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lim, Young-Kwon; Kim, Hae-Dong

2014-01-01

The impact of European teleconnections including the East AtlanticWest Russia (EA-WR), the Scandinavia (SCA), and the East Atlantic (EA) on East Asian winter temperature variability was quantified and compared with the combined effect of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the Western Pacific (WP), and the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which are originated in the Northern Hemispheric high-latitudes or the Pacific. Three European teleconnections explained 22-25 percent of the total monthly upper-tropospheric height variance over Eurasia. Regression analysis revealed warming by EA-WR and EA and cooling by SCA over mid-latitude East Asia during their positive phase and vice versa. Temperature anomalies were largely explained by the advective temperature change process at the lower troposphere. The average spatial correlation over East Asia (90-180E, 10-80N) for the last 34 winters between observed and reconstructed temperature comprised of AO, WP and ENSO effect (AWE) was approximately 0.55, and adding the European teleconnection components (ESE) to the reconstructed temperature improved the correlation up to approximately 0.64. Lower level atmospheric structure demonstrated that approximately five of the last 34 winters were significantly better explained by ESE than AWE to determine East Asian seasonal winter temperatures. We also compared the impact between EA-WR and AO on the 1) East Asian winter monsoon, 2) cold surge, and 3) the Siberian high. These three were strongly coupled, and their spatial features and interannual variation were somewhat better explained by EA-WR than AO. Results suggest that the EA-WR impact must be treated more importantly than previously thought for a better understanding of East Asian winter temperature and monsoon variability.

Anomalies of the Asian Monsoon Induced by Aerosol Forcings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Kim, M. K.

2004-01-01

Impacts of aerosols on the Asian summer monsoon are studied using the NASA finite volume General Circulation Model (fvGCM), with radiative forcing derived from three-dimensional distributions of five aerosol species i.e., black carbon, organic carbon, soil dust, and sea salt from the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport Model (GOCART). Results show that absorbing aerosols, i.e., black carbon and dust, induce large-scale upper-level heating anomaly over the Tibetan Plateau in April and May, ushering in & early onset of the Indian summer monsoon. Absorbing aerosols also I i enhance lower-level heating and anomalous ascent over northern India, intensifying the Indian monsoon. Overall, the aerosol-induced large-scale surface' temperature cooling leads to a reduction of monsoon rainfall over the East Asia continent, and adjacent oceanic regions.

Climate change in Bangladesh: a spatio-temporal analysis and simulation of recent temperature and rainfall data using GIS and time series analysis model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, Md. Rejaur; Lateh, Habibah

2017-04-01

In this paper, temperature and rainfall data series were analysed from 34 meteorological stations distributed throughout Bangladesh over a 40-year period (1971 to 2010) in order to evaluate the magnitude of these changes statistically and spatially. Linear regression, coefficient of variation, inverse distance weighted interpolation techniques and geographical information systems were performed to analyse the trends, variability and spatial patterns of temperature and rainfall. Autoregressive integrated moving average time series model was used to simulate the temperature and rainfall data. The results confirm a particularly strong and recent climate change in Bangladesh with a 0.20 °C per decade upward trend of mean temperature. The highest upward trend in minimum temperature (range of 0.80-2.4 °C) was observed in the northern, northwestern, northeastern, central and central southern parts while greatest warming in the maximum temperature (range of 1.20-2.48 °C) was found in the southern, southeastern and northeastern parts during 1971-2010. An upward trend of annual rainfall (+7.13 mm per year) and downward pre-monsoon (-0.75 mm per year) and post-monsoon rainfall (-0.55 mm per year) trends were observed during this period. Rainfall was erratic in pre-monsoon season and even more so during the post-monsoon season (variability of 44.84 and 85.25 % per year, respectively). The mean forecasted temperature exhibited an increase of 0.018 °C per year in 2011-2020, and if this trend continues, this would lead to approximately 1.0 °C warmer temperatures in Bangladesh by 2020, compared to that of 1971. A greater rise is projected for the mean minimum (0.20 °C) than the mean maximum (0.16 °C) temperature. Annual rainfall is projected to decline 153 mm from 2011 to 2020, and a drying condition will persist in the northwestern, western and southwestern parts of the country during the pre- and post-monsoonal seasons.

Precipitation stable isotope records from the northern Hengduan Mountains in China capture signals of the winter India-Burma Trough and the Indian Summer Monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Wusheng; Tian, Lide; Yao, Tandong; Xu, Baiqing; Wei, Feili; Ma, Yaoming; Zhu, Haifeng; Luo, Lun; Qu, Dongmei

2017-11-01

This project reports results of the first precipitation stable isotope (δ18 O and δD) time series produced for Qamdo in the northern Hengduan Mountains in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. The data showed that the fluctuations of precipitation stable isotopes at Qamdo during the different seasons revealed various moisture sources. The westerlies and local recycling moisture dominated at the study area before the pre-monsoon and after the post-monsoon seasons, which resulted in similar trends of both precipitation stable isotopes and temperature. The marine moisture was transported to the northern Hengduan Mountains by the winter India-Burma Trough combined with convection. Consequently, stable isotopes in subsequent precipitation were occasionally observed to decrease suddenly. However, δ18 O and δD values of precipitation at Qamdo were lower during the monsoon period and the duration of those low values was longer because of the effects of the Indian Summer Monsoon and the strengthening convection. Our findings indicate that the effects of seasonal precipitation differences caused by various climate systems, including the winter India-Burma Trough and Indian Summer Monsoon, need to be considered when attempting to interpret tree-ring and ice core records for the Hengduan Mountains.

Non-daily pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention

PubMed Central

Anderson, Peter L.; García-Lerma, J. Gerardo; Heneine, Walid

2015-01-01

Purpose of review To discuss non-daily pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) modalities that may provide advantages compared with daily PrEP in cost and cumulative toxicity, but may have lower adherence forgiveness. Recent Findings Animal models have informed our understanding of early viral transmission events, which help guide event-driven PrEP dosing strategies. These models indicate early establishment of viral replication in rectal or cervicovaginal tissues, so event-driven PrEP should rapidly deliver high mucosal drug concentrations within hours of the potential exposure event. Macaque models have demonstrated the high biological efficacy for event-driven dosing of oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) and emtricitabine (FTC) against both vaginal and rectal virus transmission. In humans, the IPERGAY study demonstrated 86% efficacy for event-driven oral TDF/FTC dosing among men who have sex with men (MSM), while no similar efficacy data are available on women or heterosexual men. The HPTN 067 study showed that certain MSM populations adhere well to non-daily PrEP while other populations of women adhere more poorly to non-daily versus daily regimens. Pharmacokinetic studies following oral TDF/FTC dosing in humans, indicate that TFV-diphosphate (the active form of TFV) accumulates to higher concentrations in rectal versus cervicovaginal tissue but non-adherence in trials complicates the interpretation of differential mucosal drug concentrations. Summary Event-driven dosing for TFV-based PrEP has promise for HIV prevention in MSM. Future research of event-driven PrEP in women and heterosexual men should be guided by a better understanding of the importance of mucosal drug concentrations for PrEP efficacy and its sensitivity to adherence. PMID:26633641

Monsoon Convective During the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment: Observations from Ground-Based Radar and the TRMM Satellite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cifelli, Rob; Rickenbach, Tom; Halverson, Jeff; Keenan, Tom; Kucera, Paul; Atkinson, Lester; Fisher, Brad; Gerlach, John; Harris, Kathy; Kaufman, Cristina

1999-01-01

A main goal of the recent South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) was to study convective processes associated with the onset of the Southeast Asian summer monsoon. The NASA TOGA C-band scanning radar was deployed on the Chinese research vessel Shi Yan #3 for two 20 day cruises, collecting dual-Doppler measurements in conjunction with the BMRC C-Pol dual-polarimetric radar on Dongsha Island. Soundings and surface meteorological data were also collected with an NCAR Integrated Sounding System (ISS). This experiment was the first major tropical field campaign following the launch of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. These observations of tropical oceanic convection provided an opportunity to make comparisons between surface radar measurements and the Precipitation Radar (PR) aboard the TRMM satellite in an oceanic environment. Nearly continuous radar operations were conducted during two Intensive Observing Periods (IOPS) straddling the onset of the monsoon (5-25 May 1998 and 5-25 June 1998). Mesoscale lines of convection with widespread regions of both trailing and forward stratiform precipitation were observed following the onset of the active monsoon in the northern South China Sea region. The vertical structure of the convection during periods of strong westerly flow and relatively moist environmental conditions in the lower to mid-troposphere contrasted sharply with convection observed during periods of low level easterlies, weak shear, and relatively dry conditions in the mid to upper troposphere. Several examples of mesoscale convection will be shown from the ground (ship)-based and spaceborne radar data during times of TRMM satellite overpasses. Examples of pre-monsoon convection, characterized by isolated cumulonimbus and shallow, precipitating congestus clouds, will also be discussed.

Documentary reconstruction of monsoon rainfall variability over western India, 1781-1860

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adamson, George C. D.; Nash, David J.

2014-02-01

Investigations into the climatic forcings that affect the long-term variability of the Indian summer monsoon are constrained by a lack of reliable rainfall data prior to the late nineteenth century. Extensive qualitative and quantitative meteorological information for the pre-instrumental period exists within historical documents, although these materials have been largely unexplored. This paper presents the first reconstruction of monsoon variability using documentary sources, focussing on western India for the period 1781-1860. Three separate reconstructions are generated, for (1) Mumbai, (2) Pune and (3) the area of Gujarat bordering the Gulf of Khambat. A composite chronology is then produced from the three reconstructions, termed the Western India Monsoon Rainfall reconstruction (WIMR). The WIMR exhibits four periods of generally deficient monsoon rainfall (1780-1785, 1799-1806, 1830-1838 and 1845-1857) and three of above-normal rainfall (1788-1794, 1813-1828 and 1839-1844). The WIMR shows good correspondence with a dendroclimatic drought reconstruction for Kerala, although agreement with the western Indian portion of the tree-ring derived Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas is less strong. The reconstruction is used to examine the long-term relationship between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and monsoon rainfall over western India. This exhibits peaks and troughs in correlation over time, suggesting a regular long-term fluctuation. This may be an internal oscillation in the ENSO-monsoon system or may be related to volcanic aerosol forcings. Further reconstructions of monsoon rainfall are necessary to validate this. The study highlights uncertainties in existing published rainfall records for 1817-1846 for western India.

A climate model study of an intense Asian Monsoon in a La Niña-like climate of MIS-13

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karami, M. P.; Berger, A.; Herold, N.; Yin, Q. Z.

2012-04-01

Studying the paleo-monsoon during past interglacials is a valuable approach to improve our understanding of the monsoon system in present-day and future climates. We focus on Marine Isotopic stage 13 (MIS-13; ~0.5 Ma) which was a relatively cool interglacial, but with a paradoxically intense monsoonal precipitation over eastern and southern Asia. Our main goal is to understand the physics-based mechanism driving the intense monsoon, specifically the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), during MIS-13. We applied both an intermediate complexity model (LOVECLIM) as well as fully coupled general circulation models (HadCM3 and CCSM3) to simulate pre-industrial and MIS-13 climates. The boundary conditions for MIS-13 were chosen for 506 ka with Northern-Hemisphere (NH) summer at perihelion and a CO2 concentration of 240 ppm. For pre-industrial, NH-winter occurring at perihelion and a CO2 concentration of 280 ppm were prescribed. Preliminary analysis of the model results shows different atmospheric and oceanic features in MIS-13 compared to the pre-industrial which could affect the EASM. The Northern Pacific Subtropical High (NPSH), which is an important factor in controlling the EASM, strengthened and extended to the northwest in MIS-13 partially due to cooling of the central Pacific Ocean. This in turn brought more moisture from the Central Pacific to the EASM-region and caused a northwestward shift and bending of the low-level jet along East Asia. The change in the low-level jet subsequently increased the meridional wind velocity at 850 mbar in the EASM-region providing more moisture from the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. In addition, higher sea-surface temperature in the Indian Ocean during MIS-13 further increased the source of moisture for the EASM. The Asian low, which is another component of the EASM-system, also shifted eastward moving the rain band northward. Moreover, it was found that MIS-13 had a dominant La Niña condition in the tropical Pacific. La Ni

Shifting covariability of North American summer monsoon precipitation with antecedent winter precipitation

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Clark, M.P.

2006-01-01

Previous research has suggested that a general inverse relation exists between winter precipitation in the southwestern United states (US) and summer monsoon precipitation. In addition, it has been suggested that this inverse relation between winter precipitation and the magnitude of the southwestern US monsoon breaks down under certain climatic conditions that override the regional winter/monsoon precipitation relations. Results from this new study indicate that the winter/monsoon precipitation relations do not break down, but rather shift location through time. The strength of winter/monsoon precipitation relations, as indexed by 20-year moving correlations between winter precipitation and monsoon precipitation, decreased in Arizona after about 1970, but increased in New Mexico. The changes in these correlations appear to be related to an eastward shift in the location of monsoon precipitation in the southwestern US. This eastward shift in monsoon precipitation and the changes in correlations with winter precipitation also appear to be related to an eastward shift in July/August atmospheric circulation over the southwestern US that resulted in increased monsoon precipitation in New Mexico. Results also indicate that decreases in sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central North Pacific Ocean also may be associated with th changes in correlations between winter and monsoon precipitation. Copyright ?? 2006 Royal Meteorological Society.

On estimating total daily evapotranspiration from remote surface temperature measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carlson, Toby N.; Buffum, Martha J.

1989-01-01

A method for calculating daily evapotranspiration from the daily surface energy budget using remotely sensed surface temperature and several meteorological variables is presented. Vaules of the coefficients are determined from simulations with a one-dimensional boundary layer model with vegetation cover. Model constants are obtained for vegetation and bare soil at two air temperature and wind speed levels over a range of surface roughness and wind speeds. A different means of estimating the daily evapotranspiration based on the time rate of increase of surface temperature during the morning is also considered. Both the equations using our model-derived constants and field measurements are evaluated, and a discussion of sources of error in the use of the formulation is given.

Late quaternary climate, precipitation δ18O, and Indian monsoon variations over the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jingmin; Ehlers, Todd A.; Werner, Martin; Mutz, Sebastian G.; Steger, Christian; Paeth, Heiko

2017-01-01

The Himalaya-Tibet orogen contains one of the largest modern topographic and climate gradients on Earth. Proxy data from the region provide a basis for understanding Tibetan Plateau paleo climate and paleo elevation reconstructions. Paleo climate model comparisons to proxy data compliment sparsely located data and can improve climate reconstructions. This study investigates temporal changes in precipitation, temperature and precipitation δ18O (δO18p) over the Himalaya-Tibet from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to present. We conduct a series of atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM, ECHAM5-wiso) experiments at discrete time slices including a Pre-industrial (PI, Pre-1850 AD), Mid Holocene (MH, 6 ka BP) and LGM (21 ka BP) simulations. Model predictions are compared with existing proxy records. Model results show muted climate changes across the plateau during the MH and larger changes occurring during the LGM. During the LGM surface temperatures are ∼ 2.0- 4.0 °C lower across the Himalaya and Tibet, and >5.0 °C lower at the northwest and northeast edge of the Tibetan Plateau. LGM mean annual precipitation is 200-600 mm/yr lower over on the Tibetan Plateau. Model and proxy data comparison shows a good agreement for the LGM, but large differences for the MH. Large differences are also present between MH proxy studies near each other. The precipitation weighted annual mean δ18Op lapse rate at the Himalaya is about 0.4 ‰ /km larger during the MH and 0.2 ‰ /km smaller during the LGM than during the PI. Finally, rainfall associated with the continental Indian monsoon (between 70°E-110°E and 10°N-30°N) is about 44% less in the LGM than during PI times. The LGM monsoon period is about one month shorter than in PI times. Taken together, these results document significant spatial and temporal changes in temperature, precipitation, and δ18Op over the last ∼21 ka. These changes are large enough to impact interpretations of proxy data and the intensity of

The Joint Aerosol-Monsoon Experiment: A New Challenge to Monsoon Climate Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.

2008-01-01

Aerosol and monsoon related droughts and floods are two of the most serious environmental hazards confronting more than 60% of the population of the world living in the Asian monsoon countries. In recent years, thanks to improved satellite and in-situ observations, and better models, great strides have been made in aerosol, and monsoon research respectively. There is now a growing body of evidence suggesting that interaction of aerosol forcing with water cycle dynamics in monsoon regions may substantially alter the redistribution of energy at the earth surface and in the atmosphere, and therefore significantly impact monsoon rainfall variability and long term trends. In this talk, I will describe issues related to societal needs, scientific background, and challenges in studies of aerosol-water cycle interaction in Asian monsoon regions. As a first step towards addressing these issues, the authors call for an integrated observation and modeling research approach aimed at the interactions between aerosol chemistry and radiative effects and monsoon dynamics of the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system. A Joint Aerosol-Monsoon Experiment (JAMEX) is proposed for 2007-2011, with an enhanced observation period during 2008-09, encompassing diverse arrays of observations from surface, aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles, and satellites of physical and chemical properties of aerosols, long range aerosol transport as well as meteorological and oceanographic parameters in the Indo-Pacific Asian monsoon region. JAMEX will leverage on coordination among many ongoing and planned national programs on aerosols and monsoon research in China, India, Japan, Nepal, Italy, US, as well as international research programs of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

Weekly Oscillation of Daily Climatology of Air Temperature: Implication for Anthropogenic Attribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, S.; Wang, K.

2016-12-01

During national holiday and weekend, human activity and anthropogenic emission are expected to be much less than those during workday. Therefore, the contrast of environmental factors (i.e., air temperature and air quality) between national holiday (or weekend) and workday has been attributed to anthropogenic impact. For example, daily maximum (Tmax), minimum (Tmin) and mean (Tmean) air temperatures during the Chinese Spring Festival holiday were found to be 0. 6°C less than those of nearby workdays. We evaluated the contrasts using daily meteorological observations collected at 2479 stations in China from 1961 to 2015. The contrasts were evaluated with two methods. The first directly compared air temperatures between Chinese Spring Festival holiday and nearby workdays. The second first composited a daily climatology of air temperatures centered on the first day of Chinese Spring Festival holiday, and the seasonal cycles of air temperatures were then removed using polynomial regressions. The average of the derived daily deviation of air temperatures can be regarded as anthropogenic impact of Chinese Spring Festival holiday. We found that these two methods obtained nearly the same results. However, we found that the so-called anthropogenic impact during Chinese Spring Festival was not unique because the daily deviations of air temperatures had obvious weekly oscillations. The daily deviations of air temperature had periods of 7 days and 9 days, which explain 60% of the variance of daily deviations of Tmax, Tmin, and Tmean. These results indicate that the so-called anthropogenic impacts are primarily caused by natural variability, i.e., weekly oscillations of the air temperatures. This study also has great implication for the studies on weekend effect of the environmental factors.

The tropopause cold trap in the Australian Monsoon during STEP/AMEX 1987

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Selkirk, Henry B.

1993-01-01

The relationship between deep convection and tropopause cold trap conditions is examined for the tropical northern Australia region during the 1986-87 summer monsoon season, emphasizing the Australia Monsoon Experiment (AMEX) period when the NASA Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange Project (STEP) was being conducted. The factors related to the spatial and temporal variability of the cold point potential temperature (CPPT) are investigated. A framework is developed for describing the relationships among surface average equivalent potential temperature in the surface layer (AEPTSL) the height of deep convection, and stratosphere-troposphere exchange. The time-mean pattern of convection, large-scale circulation, and surface AEPTSL in the Australian monsoon and the evolution of the convective environment during the monsoon period and the extended transition season which preceded it are described. The time-mean fields of cold point level variables are examined and the statistical relationships between mean CPPT, surface AEPTSL, and deep convection are described. Day-to-day variations of CPPT are examined in terms of these time mean relationships.

Interannual Variability of Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL) and Asian Summer Monsoon Evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, C.; Lau, W. K. M.; Li, Z.

2017-12-01

The Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL), recently discovered from satellite observations, has drawn much attention on the need to study and better understand processes of atmospheric constituents' transportation in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) and the variability of the Asian Monsoon Anticyclone (AMA). In this paper, based on analysis of 15 years (2001 - 2015) MERRA2 reanalysis data, we have investigated the interaction between the ATAL and monsoon dynamics and aerosol transport processes with respect to the variability of the AMA on interannual and intraseasonal time scales. Here, we present results showing that: (1) during pre- monsoon season, carbonaceous aerosols (CA), dust and carbon monoxide (CO)) accumulate along the southern slope of Tibetan Plateau (TP) and the Sichuan Basin of southwestern China. Surface pollutants are lofted up to UTLS by strong vertical convection, advected by the anticyclonic flow within the AMA forming ATAL during peak monsoon season, (2) during strong monsoon years (2001, 2005, 2007, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2015) the AMA peaks later, with stronger heating over TP and stronger ATAL, compared to weak monsoon years (2002, 2003, 2004, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2013). Enhanced vertical transport was also found over the top of TP during strong monsoon years, in conjunction with an enlarged and northward-shifted AMA, while near surface region was suppressed because of heavy rainout, (3) inspite of stronger precipitation wash out more dust and are transported to Indo-Gangetic Plain, and from the top of the TP to the UTLS, during peak monsoon season due to the stronger westerlies. (4) spectral analysis of aerosol and monsoon winds, shows that the ATAL can be modulated by UTLS transport processes on monsoon intraseasonal oscillations with strong quasi- biweekly time scales during strong monsoon, and strong 20-30 day quasi-periodicity during weak monsoon years.

[Chemical composition and daily variation of melt water during ablation season in monsoonal temperate Glacier region: a case study of Baishui Glacier No. 1].

PubMed

Zhu, Guo-Feng; Pu, Tao; He, Yuan-Qing; Wang, Pei-Zhen; Kong, Jian-Long; Zhang, Ning-Ning; Xin, Hui-Juan

2012-12-01

Melt water samples collected continuously from 29 August to 3 September 2009 in the Baishui Glacier No. 1 at elevation of 4750 m were analyzed for pH, conductivity, delta18O and inorganic ions. The results showed that the pH had obvious diurnal variations and was increased slightly by the influence of precipitation. The dissolution of alkaline soluble salts in the dust was the main reason for the increase of melt water conductivity; the value of delta18O was relatively low in strong ablation period and high in slight ablation period. Different from other research areas, the concentrations of Na+, K+, which were influenced by lithological and marine water vapor, were higher than that of Mg2+ in the study area; HCO3- and Ca2+ accounted for more than 80% of total ions in snow and ice melt water, indicating that the ions mainly came from limestone and the melt water was a typical carbonate solution; The content of melt water had an obvious daily change with temperature change, but the response amplitudes were different; Monsoon transport, local rock lithology, human industrial and agricultural activities were the main sources of inorganic ions and the deciding factors of the ion composition in the Baishui Glacier No. 1.

Daily and estrous rhythmicity of body temperature in domestic cattle

PubMed Central

Piccione, Giuseppe; Caola, Giovanni; Refinetti, Roberto

2003-01-01

Background Rhythmicity in core body temperature has been extensively studied in humans and laboratory animals but much less in farm animals. Extending the study of rhythmicity of body temperature to farm animals is important not only from a comparative perspective but also from an economic perspective, as greater knowledge of this process can lead to improvements in livestock production practices. In this study in cattle, we investigated the maturation of the daily rhythm of body temperature in newborn calves, characterized the parameters of the daily rhythm in young cows, and studied the oscillation in body temperature associated with the estrous cycle in adult cows. Results We found that the daily rhythm of body temperature is absent at birth but matures fully during the first two months of life. The mature rhythm had a mean level of 38.3°C, a range of excursion of 1.4°C, and was more robust than that of any mammalian species previously studied (90% of maximal robustness). Sexually mature cows also exhibited a robust estrous rhythm of body temperature. An elevation of about 1.3°C was observed every 21 days on the day of estrus. Small seasonal variations in this pattern were observed. Conclusion In conclusion, calves exhibit a very robust daily rhythm of body temperature, although this rhythm is absent at birth and develops during the first two months of life. Adult cows exhibit also 21-day rhythmicity in body temperature reflecting the duration of the estrous cycle. PMID:12882649

Disentangling sea-surface temperature and anthropogenic aerosol influences on recent trends in South Asian monsoon rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patil, Nitin; Venkataraman, Chandra; Muduchuru, Kaushik; Ghosh, Subimal; Mondal, Arpita

2018-05-01

Recent studies point to combined effects of changes in regional land-use, anthropogenic aerosol forcing and sea surface temperature (SST) gradient on declining trends in the South Asian monsoon (SAM). This study attempted disentangling the effects produced by changes in SST gradient from those by aerosol levels in an atmospheric general circulation model. Two pairs of transient ensemble simulations were made, for a 40-year period from 1971 to 2010, with evolving versus climatological SSTs and with anthropogenic aerosol emissions fixed at 1971 versus 2010, in each case with evolution of the other forcing element, as well as GHGs. Evolving SST was linked to a widespread feedback on increased surface temperature, reduced land-sea thermal contrast and a weakened Hadley circulation, with weakening of cross-equatorial transport of moisture transport towards South Asia. Increases in anthropogenic aerosol levels (1971 versus 2010), led to an intensification of drying in the peninsular Indian region, through several regional pathways. Aerosol forcing induced north-south asymmetries in temperature and sea-level pressure response, and a cyclonic circulation in the Bay of Bengal, leading to an easterly flow, which opposes the monsoon flow, suppressing moisture transport over peninsular India. Further, aerosol induced decreases in convection, vertically integrated moisture flux convergence, evaporation flux and cloud fraction, in the peninsular region, were spatially congruent with reduced convective and stratiform rainfall. Overall, evolution of SST acted through a weakening of cross-equatorial moisture flow, while increases in aerosol levels acted through suppression of Arabian Sea moisture transport, as well as, of convection and vertical moisture transport, to influence the suppression of SAM rainfall.

Possible development mechanisms of pre-monsoon thunderstorms over northeast and east India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narayanan, Sunanda; Vishwanathan, Gokul; Mrudula, G.

2016-05-01

Thunderstorms are mesoscale convective systems of towering cumulonimbus clouds of high vertical and horizontal extent lasting from a few minutes to several hours. Pre-monsoon thundershowers over the past 10 years have been analyzed to understand the organization, horizontal and vertical development and dissipation of such severe events. Kalbaisakhi's/ Norwester's over north east and East India is given preference in this study, while some of the other extreme events are also analyzed due to their severity. The meteorological parameters like horizontal and vertical wind, precipitable water etc., and derived variables such as Severe Weather Threat (SWEAT) Index, Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), and Convective Inhibition Energy (CINE) of the identified cases are analyzed using observations from NCEP and IMD. Satellite observations from IMD and TRMM are also used to analyze the development and moisture flow of such systems. The analysis shows that some of the parameters display a clear signature of developing thunderstorms. It is also seen that cloud parameters such as convective precipitation rate and convective cloud cover from NCEP FNL didn't show much variation during the development of storms, which may be attributed to the limitation of spatial and temporal resolution. The parameters which showed indications of a developing thunderstorm were studied in detail in order to understand the possible mechanisms behind the development and organization of thunderstorm cells.

A distinction between summer rainy season and summer monsoon season over the Central Highlands of Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ngo-Thanh, Huong; Ngo-Duc, Thanh; Nguyen-Hong, Hanh; Baker, Peter; Phan-Van, Tan

2018-05-01

The daily rainfall data at 13 stations over the Central Highlands (CH) Vietnam were collected for the period 1981-2014. Two different sets of criteria using daily observed rainfall and 850 hPa daily reanalysis wind data were applied to determine the onset (retreat) dates of the summer rainy season (RS) and summer monsoon (SM) season, respectively. Over the study period, the mean RS and SM onset dates were April 20 and May 13 with standard deviations of 17.4 and 17.8 days, respectively. The mean RS and SM retreat dates were November 1 and September 30 with standard deviations of 17.9 and 10.2 days, respectively . The year-to-year variations of the onset dates and the rainfall amount within the RS and SM season were closely linked with the preceding winter and spring sea surface temperature in the central-eastern and western Pacific. It was also found that the onset dates were significantly correlated with the RS and SM rainfall amount.

Association between Daily Hospital Outpatient Visits for Accidents and Daily Ambient Air Temperatures in an Industrial City.

PubMed

Chau, Tang-Tat; Wang, Kuo-Ying

2016-01-01

An accident is an unwanted hazard to a person. However, accidents occur. In this work, we search for correlations between daily accident rates and environmental factors. To study daily hospital outpatients who were admitted for accidents during a 5-year period, 2007-2011, we analyzed data regarding 168,366 outpatients using univariate regression models; we also used multivariable regression models to account for confounding factors. Our analysis indicates that the number of male outpatients admitted for accidents was approximately 1.31 to 1.47 times the number of female outpatients (P < 0.0001). Of the 12 parameters (regarding air pollution and meteorology) considered, only daily temperature exhibited consistent and significant correlations with the daily number of hospital outpatient visits for accidents throughout the 5-year analysis period. The univariate regression models indicate that older people (greater than 66 years old) had the fewest accidents per 1-degree increase in temperature, followed by young people (0-15 years old). Middle-aged people (16-65 years old) were the group of outpatients that were more prone to accidents, with an increase in accident rates of 0.8-1.2 accidents per degree increase in temperature. The multivariable regression models also reveal that the temperature variation was the dominant factor in determining the daily number of outpatient visits for accidents. Our further multivariable model analysis of temperature with respect to air pollution variables show that, through the increases in emissions and concentrations of CO, photochemical O3 production and NO2 loss in the ambient air, increases in vehicular emissions are associated with increases in temperatures. As such, increases in hospital visits for accidents are related to vehicular emissions and usage. This finding is consistent with clinical experience which shows about 60% to 80% of accidents are related to traffic, followed by accidents occurred in work place.

Association between Daily Hospital Outpatient Visits for Accidents and Daily Ambient Air Temperatures in an Industrial City

PubMed Central

Chau, Tang-Tat; Wang, Kuo-Ying

2016-01-01

An accident is an unwanted hazard to a person. However, accidents occur. In this work, we search for correlations between daily accident rates and environmental factors. To study daily hospital outpatients who were admitted for accidents during a 5-year period, 2007–2011, we analyzed data regarding 168,366 outpatients using univariate regression models; we also used multivariable regression models to account for confounding factors. Our analysis indicates that the number of male outpatients admitted for accidents was approximately 1.31 to 1.47 times the number of female outpatients (P < 0.0001). Of the 12 parameters (regarding air pollution and meteorology) considered, only daily temperature exhibited consistent and significant correlations with the daily number of hospital outpatient visits for accidents throughout the 5-year analysis period. The univariate regression models indicate that older people (greater than 66 years old) had the fewest accidents per 1-degree increase in temperature, followed by young people (0–15 years old). Middle-aged people (16–65 years old) were the group of outpatients that were more prone to accidents, with an increase in accident rates of 0.8–1.2 accidents per degree increase in temperature. The multivariable regression models also reveal that the temperature variation was the dominant factor in determining the daily number of outpatient visits for accidents. Our further multivariable model analysis of temperature with respect to air pollution variables show that, through the increases in emissions and concentrations of CO, photochemical O3 production and NO2 loss in the ambient air, increases in vehicular emissions are associated with increases in temperatures. As such, increases in hospital visits for accidents are related to vehicular emissions and usage. This finding is consistent with clinical experience which shows about 60% to 80% of accidents are related to traffic, followed by accidents occurred in work place. PMID

Development of daily temperature scenarios and their impact on paddy crop evapotranspiration in Kangsabati command area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhage, P. M.; Raghuwanshi, N. S.; Singh, R.; Mishra, A.

2017-05-01

Production of the principal paddy crop in West Bengal state of India is vulnerable to climate change due to limited water resources and strong dependence on surface irrigation. Therefore, assessment of impact of temperature scenarios on crop evapotranspiration (ETc) is essential for irrigation management in Kangsabati command (West Bengal). In the present study, impact of the projected temperatures on ETc was studied under climate change scenarios. Further, the performance of the bias correction and spatial downscaling (BCSD) technique was compared with the two well-known downscaling techniques, namely, multiple linear regression (MLR) and Kernel regression (KR), for the projections of daily maximum and minimum air temperatures for four stations, namely, Purulia, Bankura, Jhargram, and Kharagpur. In National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and General Circulation Model (GCM), 14 predictors were used in MLR and KR techniques, whereas maximum and minimum surface air temperature predictor of CanESM2 GCM was used in BCSD technique. The comparison results indicated that the performance of the BCSD technique was better than the MLR and KR techniques. Therefore, the BCSD technique was used to project the future temperatures of study locations with three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios for the period of 2006-2100. The warming tendencies of maximum and minimum temperatures over the Kangsabati command area were projected as 0.013 and 0.014 °C/year under RCP 2.6, 0.015 and 0.023 °C/year under RCP 4.5, and 0.056 and 0.061 °C/year under RCP 8.5 for 2011-2100 period, respectively. As a result, kharif (monsoon) crop evapotranspiration demand of Kangsabati reservoir command (project area) will increase by approximately 10, 8, and 18 % over historical demand under RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios, respectively.

Comparison of the Impact of the Arctic Oscillation and East Atlantic - West Russia Teleconnection on Interannual Variation in East Asian Winter Temperatures and Monsoon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lim, Young-Kwon; Kim, Hae-Dong

2014-01-01

The large-scale impacts of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR) teleconnection on the East Asian winter climate anomalies are compared for the past 34 winters focusing on 1) interannual monthly to seasonal temperature variability, 2) East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM), and 3) the Siberian high (SH) and cold surge. Regression analysis reveals warming by AO and EA/WR over mid-latitude East Asia during their positive phase and vice versa. The EA/WR impact is found to be comparable to the AO impact in affecting the East Asian temperature and monsoon. For example, warm (cold) months over mid-latitude East Asia during the positive (negative) AO are clearly seen when the AO and EA/WR are in the same phase. Near zero correlation is found between temperature and the AO phase when both teleconnections are in an opposite phase. The well-known negative relationship between SH and the AO phase is observed significantly more often when the AO is in the same phase with the EA/WR. Also, the indices of EAWM, cold surge, and SH are found to be more highly negative-correlated with the EA/WR rather than with the AO. The advective temperature change and associated circulation demonstrate that the anomalous large-scale field including the SH over the mid-latitude Asian inland is better represented by the EA/WR, influencing the East Asian winter climates. These results suggest that the impact of EA/WR should be considered more important than previously thought for a better understanding of East Asian winter temperature and monsoon variability.

Community level perceptions of the monsoon onset, withdrawal and climatic trends in Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reeve, M. A.; Abu Syed, M. D.; Hossain, P. R.; Maainuddi, G.; Mamnun, N.

2012-04-01

A structured questionnaire study was carried out in 6 different regions in Bangladesh in order to give insight into how the different communities define the monsoon. The respondents were asked how they define the monsoon onset and withdrawal, and by how much these can vary from year to year. They were also asked about how they perceive changes in onset and withdrawal dates and total monsoonal rainfall during the past 20 years. Bangladesh is a developing country with a large proportion of the population living in rural areas and employed in the agricultural sector. It is foreseen that these communities will be most affected by changes in the climate. These groups were considered to be the main stakeholders when considering climate change, due to the direct influence the monsoon has on their livelihood and the food supply for the entire nation. Agricultural workers were therefore the main group targeted in this study. The main aim of the study was to create a framework for defining the monsoon in order to increase the usability of results in future impact-related studies. Refining definitions according to the perceptions of the main stakeholders helps to achieve this goal. Results show that rainfall is the main parameter used in defining the monsoon onset and withdrawal. This is possibly intuitive, however the monsoon onset was considered to be considerably earlier than previous scientific studies. This could be due to pre-monsoonal rainfall, however the respondents defined this type of rainfall separately to what they called the monsoon. The monsoon is considered to start earliest in the Sylhet region in northeast Bangladesh.

Contrasting influences of aerosols on cloud properties during deficient and abundant monsoon years

PubMed Central

Patil, Nitin; Dave, Prashant; Venkataraman, Chandra

2017-01-01

Direct aerosol radiative forcing facilitates the onset of Indian monsoon rainfall, based on synoptic scale fast responses acting over timescales of days to a month. Here, we examine relationships between aerosols and coincident clouds over the Indian subcontinent, using observational data from 2000 to 2009, from the core monsoon region. Season mean and daily timescales were considered. The correlation analyses of cloud properties with aerosol optical depth revealed that deficient monsoon years were characterized by more frequent and larger decreases in cloud drop size and ice water path, but increases in cloud top pressure, with increases in aerosol abundance. The opposite was observed during abundant monsoon years. The correlations of greater aerosol abundance, with smaller cloud drop size, lower evidence of ice processes and shallower cloud height, during deficient rainfall years, imply cloud inhibition; while those with larger cloud drop size, greater ice processes and a greater cloud vertical extent, during abundant rainfall years, suggest cloud invigoration. The study establishes that continental aerosols over India alter cloud properties in diametrically opposite ways during contrasting monsoon years. The mechanisms underlying these effects need further analysis. PMID:28337991

Contrasting influences of aerosols on cloud properties during deficient and abundant monsoon years.

PubMed

Patil, Nitin; Dave, Prashant; Venkataraman, Chandra

2017-03-24

Direct aerosol radiative forcing facilitates the onset of Indian monsoon rainfall, based on synoptic scale fast responses acting over timescales of days to a month. Here, we examine relationships between aerosols and coincident clouds over the Indian subcontinent, using observational data from 2000 to 2009, from the core monsoon region. Season mean and daily timescales were considered. The correlation analyses of cloud properties with aerosol optical depth revealed that deficient monsoon years were characterized by more frequent and larger decreases in cloud drop size and ice water path, but increases in cloud top pressure, with increases in aerosol abundance. The opposite was observed during abundant monsoon years. The correlations of greater aerosol abundance, with smaller cloud drop size, lower evidence of ice processes and shallower cloud height, during deficient rainfall years, imply cloud inhibition; while those with larger cloud drop size, greater ice processes and a greater cloud vertical extent, during abundant rainfall years, suggest cloud invigoration. The study establishes that continental aerosols over India alter cloud properties in diametrically opposite ways during contrasting monsoon years. The mechanisms underlying these effects need further analysis.

Did Aboriginal vegetation burning affect the Australian summer monsoon?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balcerak, Ernie

2011-08-01

For thousands of years, Aboriginal Australians burned forests, creating grasslands. Some studies have suggested that in addition to changing the landscape, these burning practices also affected the timing and intensity of the Australian summer monsoon. Different vegetation types can alter evaporation, roughness, and surface reflectivity, leading to changes in the weather and climate. On the basis of an ensemble of experiments with a global climate model, Notaro et al. conducted a comprehensive evaluation of the effects of decreased vegetation cover on the summer monsoon in northern Australia. They found that although decreased vegetation cover would have had only minor effects during the height of the monsoon season, during the premonsoon season, burning-induced vegetation loss would have caused significant decreases in precipitation and increases in temperature. Thus, by burning forests, Aboriginals altered the local climate, effectively extending the dry season and delaying the start of the monsoon season. (Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2011GL047774, 2011)

Interactions Between Asian Air Pollution and Monsoon System: South Asia (ROSES-2014 ACMAP)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pan, Xiaohua; Chin, Mian; Tao, Zhining; Kim, Dongchul; Bian, Huisheng; Kucsera, Tom

2018-01-01

Asia's rapid economic growth over the past several decades has brought a remarkable increase in air pollution levels in that region. High concentrations of aerosols (also known as particulate matter or PM) from pollution sources pose major health hazards to half of the world population in Asia including South Asia. How do pollution and dust aerosols regulate the monsoon circulation and rainfall via scattering and absorbing solar radiation, changing the atmospheric heating rates, and modifying the cloud properties? We conducted a series of regional model experiments with NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecast (NUWRF) regional model with coupled aerosol-chemistry-radiation-microphysics processes over South Asia for winter, pre-monsoon, and monsoon seasons to address this question. This study investigates the worsening air quality problem in South Asia by focusing on the interactions between pollution and South Asian monsoon, not merely focusing on the increase of pollutant emissions.

Mixing to Monsoons: Air-Sea Interactions in the Bay of Bengal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucas, A. J.; Shroyer, E. L.; Wijesekera, H. W.; Fernando, H. J. S.; D'Asaro, E.; Ravichandran, M.; Jinadasa, S. U. P.; MacKinnon, J. A.; Nash, J. D.; Sharma, R.; Centurioni, L.; Farrar, J. T.; Weller, R.; Pinkel, R.; Mahadevan, A.; Sengupta, D.; Tandon, A.

2014-07-01

More than 1 billion people depend on rainfall from the South Asian monsoon for their livelihoods. Summertime monsoonal precipitation is highly variable on intraseasonal time scales, with alternating "active" and "break" periods. These intraseasonal oscillations in large-scale atmospheric convection and winds are closely tied to 1°C-2°C variations of sea surface temperature in the Bay of Bengal.

Does Aerosol Weaken or Strengthen the South Asian Monsoon?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.

2007-01-01

Aerosols are known to have the ability to block off solar radiation reaching the earth surface, causing it to cool - the so-called solar dimming (SDM) effect. In the Asian monsoon region, the SDM effect by aerosol can produce differential cooling at the surface reducing the meridional thermal contrast between land and ocean, leading to a weakening of the monsoon (Ramanathan et al. 2005). On the other hand, absorbing aerosols such as black carbon and dust, when forced up against the steep slopes of the southern Tibetan Plateau can produce upper tropospheric heating, and induce convection-dynamic feedback leading to an advance of the rainy season over northern India and an enhancement of the South Asian monsoon through the "Elevated Heat Pump" (EHP) effect (Lau et al. 2006). In this paper, we present modeling results showing that in a coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system in which concentrations of greenhouse gases are kept constant, the response of the South Asian monsoon to dust and black carbon forcing is the net result of the two opposing effects of SDM and EHP. For the South Asian monsoon, if the increasing upper tropospheric thermal contrast between the Tibetan Plateau and region to the south spurred by the EHP overwhelms the reduction in surface temperature contrast due to SDM, the monsoon strengthens. Otherwise, the monsoon weakens. Preliminary observations are consistent with the above findings. We find that the two effects are strongly scale dependent. On interannual and shorter time scales, the EHP effect appears to dominate in the early summer season (May-June). On decadal or longer time scales, the SDM dominates for the mature monsoon (July-August). Better understanding the physical mechanisms underlying the SDM and the EHP effects, the local emission and transport of aerosols from surrounding deserts and arid-regions, and their interaction with monsoon water cycle dynamics are important in providing better prediction and assessment of climate change

Does Aerosol Weaken or Strengthen the South Asian Monsoon?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K.

2010-01-01

Aerosols are known to have the ability to block off solar radiation reaching the earth surface, causing it to cool - the so-called solar dimming (SDM) effect. In the Asian monsoon region, the SDM effect by aerosol can produce differential cooling at the surface reducing the meridional thermal contrast between land and ocean, leading to a weakening of the monsoon. On the other hand, absorbing aerosols such as black carbon and dust, when forced up against the steep slopes of the southern Tibetan Plateau can produce upper tropospheric heating, and induce convection-dynamic feedback leading to an advance of the rainy season over northern India and an enhancement of the South Asian monsoon through the "Elevated Heat Pump" (EHP) effect. In this paper, we present modeling results showing that in a coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system in which concentrations of greenhouse gases are kept constant, the response of the South Asian monsoon to dust and black carbon forcing is the net result of the two opposing effects of SDM and EHP. For the South Asian monsoon, if the increasing upper tropospheric thermal contrast between the Tibetan Plateau and region to the south spurred by the EHP overwhelms the reduction in surface temperature contrast due to SDM, the monsoon strengthens. Otherwise, the monsoon weakens. Preliminary observations are consistent with the above findings. We find that the two effects are strongly scale dependent. On interannual and shorter time scales, the EHP effect appears to dominate in the early summer season (May-June). On decadal or longer time scales, the SDM dominates for the mature monsoon (July-August). Better understanding the physical mechanisms underlying the SDM and the EHP effects, the local emission and transport of aerosols from surrounding deserts and arid-regions, and their interaction with monsoon water cycle dynamics are important in providing better prediction and assessment of climate change impacts on precipitation of the Asian monsoon

Logit-normal mixed model for Indian Monsoon rainfall extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dietz, L. R.; Chatterjee, S.

2014-03-01

Describing the nature and variability of Indian monsoon rainfall extremes is a topic of much debate in the current literature. We suggest the use of a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), specifically, the logit-normal mixed model, to describe the underlying structure of this complex climatic event. Several GLMM algorithms are described and simulations are performed to vet these algorithms before applying them to the Indian precipitation data procured from the National Climatic Data Center. The logit-normal model was applied with fixed covariates of latitude, longitude, elevation, daily minimum and maximum temperatures with a random intercept by weather station. In general, the estimation methods concurred in their suggestion of a relationship between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and extreme rainfall variability estimates. This work provides a valuable starting point for extending GLMM to incorporate the intricate dependencies in extreme climate events.

The EUSTACE project: delivering global, daily information on surface air temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghent, D.; Rayner, N. A.

2017-12-01

Day-to-day variations in surface air temperature affect society in many ways; however, daily surface air temperature measurements are not available everywhere. A global daily analysis cannot be achieved with measurements made in situ alone, so incorporation of satellite retrievals is needed. To achieve this, in the EUSTACE project (2015-2018, https://www.eustaceproject.eu) we have developed an understanding of the relationships between traditional (land and marine) surface air temperature measurements and retrievals of surface skin temperature from satellite measurements, i.e. Land Surface Temperature, Ice Surface Temperature, Sea Surface Temperature and Lake Surface Water Temperature. Here we discuss the science needed to produce a fully-global daily analysis (or ensemble of analyses) of surface air temperature on the centennial scale, integrating different ground-based and satellite-borne data types. Information contained in the satellite retrievals is used to create globally-complete fields in the past, using statistical models of how surface air temperature varies in a connected way from place to place. This includes developing new "Big Data" analysis methods as the data volumes involved are considerable. We will present recent progress along this road in the EUSTACE project, i.e.: • identifying inhomogeneities in daily surface air temperature measurement series from weather stations and correcting for these over Europe; • estimating surface air temperature over all surfaces of Earth from surface skin temperature retrievals; • using new statistical techniques to provide information on higher spatial and temporal scales than currently available, making optimum use of information in data-rich eras. Information will also be given on how interested users can become involved.

The Summer Monsoon of 1987.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishnamurti, T. N.; Bedi, H. S.; Subramaniam, M.

1989-04-01

In this paper we have examined the evolution of a number of parameters we believe were important for our understanding of the drought over India during the summer of 1987. The list of parameters includes monthly means or anomalies of the following fields: sea surface temperatures, divergent circulations, outgoing longwave radiation, streamfunction of the lower and upper troposphere, and monthly precipitation (expressed as a percentage departure from a long-term mean). The El Niño related warm sea surface temperature anomaly and a weaker warm sea surface temperature anomaly over the equatorial Indian Ocean provide sustained convection, as reflected by the negative values of the outgoing longwave radiation. With the seasonal heating, a pronounced planetary-scale divergent circulation evolved with a center along the western Pacific Ocean. The monsoonal divergent circulation merged with that related to the El Niño, maintaining most of the heavy rainfall activity between the equatorial Pacific Ocean and east Asia. Persistent convective activity continued south of India during the entire monsoon season. Strong Hadley type overturnings with rising motions over these warm SST anomaly regions and descent roughly near 20° to 25°S was evident as early as April 1987. The subtropical high pressure areas near 20° to 25°S showed stronger than normal circulations. This was revealed by the presence of a counterclockwise streamfunction anomaly at 850 mb during April 1987. With the seasonal heating, this anomaly moved northwards and was located over the Arabian Sea and India. This countermonsoon circulation anomaly at the low levels was associated with a weaker than normal Somali jet and Arabian Sea circulation throughout this summer. The monsoon remained active along northeast India, Bangladesh, northern lndochina, and central China during the summer monsoon season. This was related to the eastward shift of the divergent circulation. An eastward shift of the upper tropospheric

Type-segregated aerosol effects on regional monsoon activity: A study using ground-based experiments and model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vijayakumar, K.; Devara, P. C. S.; Sonbawne, S. M.

2014-12-01

Classification of observed aerosols into key types [e.g., clean-maritime (CM), desert-dust (DD), urban-industrial/biomass-burning (UI/BB), black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and mixed-type aerosols (MA)] would facilitate to infer aerosol sources, effects, and feedback mechanisms, not only to improve the accuracy of satellite retrievals but also to quantify the assessment of aerosol radiative impacts on climate. In this paper, we report the results of a study conducted in this direction, employing a Cimel Sun-sky radiometer at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, India during 2008 and 2009, which represent two successive contrasting monsoon years. The study provided an observational evidence to show that the local sources are subject to heavy loading of absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon), with strong seasonality closely linked to the monsoon annual rainfall cycle over Pune, a tropical urban station in India. The results revealed the absence of CM aerosols in the pre-monsoon as well as in the monsoon seasons of 2009 as opposed to 2008. Higher loading of dust aerosols is observed in the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons of 2009; majority may be coated with fine BC aerosols from local emissions, leading to reduction in regional rainfall. Further, significant decrease in coarse-mode AOD and presence of carbonaceous aerosols, affecting the aerosol-cloud interaction and monsoon-rain processes via microphysics and dynamics, is considered responsible for the reduction in rainfall during 2009. Additionally, we discuss how optical depth, contributed by different types of aerosols, influences the distribution of monsoon rainfall over an urban region using the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) aerosol reanalysis. Furthermore, predictions of the Dust REgional Atmospheric Model (DREAM) simulations combined with HYSPLIT (HYbrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory) cluster model are also discussed in support of the

Daily Air Temperature and Electricity Load in Spain.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valor, Enric; Meneu, Vicente; Caselles, Vicente

2001-08-01

Weather has a significant impact on different sectors of the economy. One of the most sensitive is the electricity market, because power demand is linked to several weather variables, mainly the air temperature. This work analyzes the relationship between electricity load and daily air temperature in Spain, using a population-weighted temperature index. The electricity demand shows a significant trend due to socioeconomic factors, in addition to daily and monthly seasonal effects that have been taken into account to isolate the weather influence on electricity load. The results indicate that the relationship is nonlinear, showing a `comfort interval' of ±3°C around 18°C and two saturation points beyond which the electricity load no longer increases. The analysis has also revealed that the sensitivity of electricity load to daily air temperature has increased along time, in a higher degree for summer than for winter, although the sensitivity in the cold season is always more significant than in the warm season. Two different temperature-derived variables that allow a better characterization of the observed relationship have been used: the heating and cooling degree-days. The regression of electricity data on them defines the heating and cooling demand functions, which show correlation coefficients of 0.79 and 0.87, and predicts electricity load with standard errors of estimate of ±4% and ±2%, respectively. The maximum elasticity of electricity demand is observed at 7 cooling degree-days and 9 heating degree-days, and the saturation points are reached at 11 cooling degree-days and 13 heating degree-days, respectively. These results are helpful in modeling electricity load behavior for predictive purposes.

The EUSTACE project: delivering global, daily information on surface air temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rayner, Nick

2017-04-01

Day-to-day variations in surface air temperature affect society in many ways; however, daily surface air temperature measurements are not available everywhere. A global daily analysis cannot be achieved with measurements made in situ alone, so incorporation of satellite retrievals is needed. To achieve this, in the EUSTACE project (2015-June 2018, https://www.eustaceproject.eu) we are developing an understanding of the relationships between traditional (land and marine) surface air temperature measurements and retrievals of surface skin temperature from satellite measurements, i.e. Land Surface Temperature, Ice Surface Temperature, Sea Surface Temperature and Lake Surface Water Temperature. Here we discuss the science needed to produce a fully-global daily analysis (or ensemble of analyses) of surface air temperature on the centennial scale, integrating different ground-based and satellite-borne data types. Information contained in the satellite retrievals is used to create globally-complete fields in the past, using statistical models of how surface air temperature varies in a connected way from place to place. As the data volumes involved are considerable, such work needs to include development of new "Big Data" analysis methods. We will present recent progress along this road in the EUSTACE project: 1. providing new, consistent, multi-component estimates of uncertainty in surface skin temperature retrievals from satellites; 2. identifying inhomogeneities in daily surface air temperature measurement series from weather stations and correcting for these over Europe; 3. estimating surface air temperature over all surfaces of Earth from surface skin temperature retrievals; 4. using new statistical techniques to provide information on higher spatial and temporal scales than currently available, making optimum use of information in data-rich eras. Information will also be given on how interested users can become involved.

The EUSTACE project: delivering global, daily information on surface air temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghent, D.; Rayner, N. A.

2016-12-01

Day-to-day variations in surface air temperature affect society in many ways; however, daily surface air temperature measurements are not available everywhere. A global daily analysis cannot be achieved with measurements made in situ alone, so incorporation of satellite retrievals is needed. To achieve this, in the EUSTACE project (2015-June 2018, https://www.eustaceproject.eu) we are developing an understanding of the relationships between traditional (land and marine) surface air temperature measurements and retrievals of surface skin temperature from satellite measurements, i.e. Land Surface Temperature, Ice Surface Temperature, Sea Surface Temperature and Lake Surface Water Temperature. Here we discuss the science needed to produce a fully-global daily analysis (or ensemble of analyses) of surface air temperature on the centennial scale, integrating different ground-based and satellite-borne data types. Information contained in the satellite retrievals is used to create globally-complete fields in the past, using statistical models of how surface air temperature varies in a connected way from place to place. As the data volumes involved are considerable, such work needs to include development of new "Big Data" analysis methods. We will present recent progress along this road in the EUSTACE project, i.e.: • providing new, consistent, multi-component estimates of uncertainty in surface skin temperature retrievals from satellites; • identifying inhomogeneities in daily surface air temperature measurement series from weather stations and correcting for these over Europe; • estimating surface air temperature over all surfaces of Earth from surface skin temperature retrievals; • using new statistical techniques to provide information on higher spatial and temporal scales than currently available, making optimum use of information in data-rich eras. Information will also be given on how interested users can become involved.

Sources of errors in the simulation of south Asian summer monsoon in the CMIP5 GCMs

DOE PAGES

Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha; Mei, Rui; ...

2016-09-19

Accurate simulation of the South Asian summer monsoon (SAM) is still an unresolved challenge. There has not been a benchmark effort to decipher the origin of undesired yet virtually invariable unsuccessfulness of general circulation models (GCMs) over this region. This study analyzes a large ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs to show that most of the simulation errors in the precipitation distribution and their driving mechanisms are systematic and of similar nature across the GCMs, with biases in meridional differential heating playing a critical role in determining the timing of monsoon onset over land, the magnitude of seasonal precipitation distribution and themore » trajectories of monsoon depressions. Errors in the pre-monsoon heat low over the lower latitudes and atmospheric latent heating over the slopes of Himalayas and Karakoram Range induce significant errors in the atmospheric circulations and meridional differential heating. Lack of timely precipitation further exacerbates such errors by limiting local moisture recycling and latent heating aloft from convection. Most of the summer monsoon errors and their sources are reproducible in the land–atmosphere configuration of a GCM when it is configured at horizontal grid spacing comparable to the CMIP5 GCMs. While an increase in resolution overcomes many modeling challenges, coarse resolution is not necessarily the primary driver in the exhibition of errors over South Asia. Ultimately, these results highlight the importance of previously less well known pre-monsoon mechanisms that critically influence the strength of SAM in the GCMs and highlight the importance of land–atmosphere interactions in the development and maintenance of SAM.« less

Sources of errors in the simulation of south Asian summer monsoon in the CMIP5 GCMs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha; Mei, Rui

2016-09-19

Accurate simulation of the South Asian summer monsoon (SAM) is still an unresolved challenge. There has not been a benchmark effort to decipher the origin of undesired yet virtually invariable unsuccessfulness of general circulation models (GCMs) over this region. This study analyzes a large ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs to show that most of the simulation errors in the precipitation distribution and their driving mechanisms are systematic and of similar nature across the GCMs, with biases in meridional differential heating playing a critical role in determining the timing of monsoon onset over land, the magnitude of seasonal precipitation distribution and themore » trajectories of monsoon depressions. Errors in the pre-monsoon heat low over the lower latitudes and atmospheric latent heating over the slopes of Himalayas and Karakoram Range induce significant errors in the atmospheric circulations and meridional differential heating. Lack of timely precipitation further exacerbates such errors by limiting local moisture recycling and latent heating aloft from convection. Most of the summer monsoon errors and their sources are reproducible in the land–atmosphere configuration of a GCM when it is configured at horizontal grid spacing comparable to the CMIP5 GCMs. While an increase in resolution overcomes many modeling challenges, coarse resolution is not necessarily the primary driver in the exhibition of errors over South Asia. These results highlight the importance of previously less well known pre-monsoon mechanisms that critically influence the strength of SAM in the GCMs and highlight the importance of land–atmosphere interactions in the development and maintenance of SAM.« less

Sources of errors in the simulation of south Asian summer monsoon in the CMIP5 GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha; Mei, Rui; Touma, Danielle; Ruby Leung, L.

2017-07-01

Accurate simulation of the South Asian summer monsoon (SAM) is still an unresolved challenge. There has not been a benchmark effort to decipher the origin of undesired yet virtually invariable unsuccessfulness of general circulation models (GCMs) over this region. This study analyzes a large ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs to show that most of the simulation errors in the precipitation distribution and their driving mechanisms are systematic and of similar nature across the GCMs, with biases in meridional differential heating playing a critical role in determining the timing of monsoon onset over land, the magnitude of seasonal precipitation distribution and the trajectories of monsoon depressions. Errors in the pre-monsoon heat low over the lower latitudes and atmospheric latent heating over the slopes of Himalayas and Karakoram Range induce significant errors in the atmospheric circulations and meridional differential heating. Lack of timely precipitation further exacerbates such errors by limiting local moisture recycling and latent heating aloft from convection. Most of the summer monsoon errors and their sources are reproducible in the land-atmosphere configuration of a GCM when it is configured at horizontal grid spacing comparable to the CMIP5 GCMs. While an increase in resolution overcomes many modeling challenges, coarse resolution is not necessarily the primary driver in the exhibition of errors over South Asia. These results highlight the importance of previously less well known pre-monsoon mechanisms that critically influence the strength of SAM in the GCMs and highlight the importance of land-atmosphere interactions in the development and maintenance of SAM.

Radiative effects of black carbon aerosols on Indian monsoon: a study using WRF-Chem model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soni, Pramod; Tripathi, Sachchida Nand; Srivastava, Rajesh

2018-04-01

The Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) is utilized to examine the radiative effects of black carbon (BC) aerosols on the Indian monsoon, for the year 2010. Five ensemble simulations with different initial conditions (1st to 5th December, 2009) were performed and simulation results between 1st January, 2010 to 31st December, 2010 were used for analysis. Most of the BC which stays near the surface during the pre-monsoon season gets transported to higher altitudes with the northward migration of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) during the monsoon season. In both the seasons, strong negative SW anomalies are present at the surface along with positive anomalies in the atmosphere, which results in the surface cooling and lower tropospheric heating, respectively. During the pre-monsoon season, lower troposphere heating causes increased convection and enhanced meridional wind circulation, bringing moist air from Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal to the North-East India, leading to increased rainfall there. However, during the monsoon season, along with cooling over the land regions, a warming over the Bay of Bengal is simulated. This differential heating results in an increased westerly moisture flux anomaly over central India, leading to increased rainfall over northern parts of India but decreased rainfall over southern parts. Decreased rainfall over southern India is also substantiated by the presence of increased evaporation over Bay of Bengal and decrease over land regions.

Influence of southwest monsoons in the Kashmir Valley, western Himalayas.

PubMed

Jeelani, Ghulam; Deshpande, Rajendrakumar D; Shah, Rouf A; Hassan, Wasim

2017-08-01

The regional climate of the Himalayas is predominated by the southwest monsoons and the western disturbances. The uplift of the Pir Panjal to its present height is believed to restrict the southwest monsoons from entering into the Kashmir Valley in the western Himalayas. In the present study, monthly precipitation samples were collected across the Kashmir Valley from June 2013 to May 2014 for δ 18 O and δ 2 H analyses to constrain the influence of southwest monsoons in the valley. Except in August, the precipitation is enriched in 18 O and 2 H from June to September and depleted from October to May. The sharp depletion of 18 O in precipitation along with the decrease in d-excess in August confirm the maximum intrusion of southwest monsoons into the valley. A significant temperature - δ 18 O relationship was found during October and May (westerlies period) decreasing during June and September (southwest monsoon period). The local meteoric water line for the whole Kashmir Valley based on the precipitation-weighted monthly samples is [Formula: see text] [Formula: see text]. Higher intercept of the regression equation suggested dominant contribution of precipitation from western disturbances. The study suggested that the southwest monsoons enter the Kashmir Valley from southwest through the mountainous passes.

Understanding the Asian summer monsoon response to greenhouse warming: the relative roles of direct radiative forcing and sea surface temperature change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiaoqiong; Ting, Mingfang

2017-10-01

Future hydroclimate projections from state-of-the-art climate models show large uncertainty and model spread, particularly in the tropics and over the monsoon regions. The precipitation and circulation responses to rising greenhouse gases involve a fast component associated with direct radiative forcing and a slow component associated with sea surface temperature (SST) warming; the relative importance of the two may contribute to model discrepancies. In this study, regional hydroclimate responses to greenhouse warming are assessed using output from coupled general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) and idealized atmospheric general circulation model experiments from the Atmosphere Model Intercomparison Project. The thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms causing the rainfall changes are examined using moisture budget analysis. Results show that direct radiative forcing and SST change exert significantly different responses both over land and ocean. For most part of the Asian monsoon region, the summertime rainfall changes are dominated by the direct CO2 radiative effect through enhanced monsoon circulation. The response to SST warming shows a larger model spread compared to direct radiative forcing, possibly due to the cancellation between the thermodynamical and dynamical components. While the thermodynamical response of the Asian monsoon is robust across the models, there is a lack of consensus for the dynamical response among the models and weak multi-model mean responses in the CMIP5 ensemble, which may be related to the multiple physical processes evolving on different time scales.

Probing for suitable climatology to estimate the predictability of monsoon onset over Kerala (MOK), India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pal, J.; Chaudhuri, S.; Mukherjee, S.; Chowdhury, A. Roy

2017-10-01

Inter-annual variability in the onset of monsoon over Kerala (MOK), India, is investigated using daily temperature; mean sea level pressure; winds at 850, 500 and 200 hPa pressure levels; outgoing longwave radiation (OLR); sea surface temperature (SST) and vertically integrated moisture content anomaly with 32 years (1981-2013) observation. The MOK is classified as early, delayed, or normal by considering the mean monsoon onset date over Kerala to be the 1st of June with a standard deviation of 8 days. The objective of the study is to identify the synoptic setup during MOK and comparison with climatology to estimate the predictability of the onset type (early, normal, or delayed) with 5, 10, and 15 days lead time. The study reveals that an enhanced convection observed over the Bay of Bengal during early MOK is found to shift over the Arabian Sea during delayed MOK. An intense high-pressure zone observed over the western south Indian Ocean during early MOK shifts to the east during delayed MOK. Higher tropospheric temperature (TT) over the western Equatorial Ocean during early MOK and lower TT over the Indian subcontinent intensify the land-ocean thermal contrast that leads to early MOK. The sea surface temperature (SST) over the Arabian Sea is observed to be warmer during delayed than early MOK. During early MOK, the source of 850 hPa southwesterly wind shifts to the west equatorial zone while a COL region has been found during delayed MOK at that level. The study further reveals that the wind speed anomaly at the 200-hPa pressure level coincides inversely with the anomaly of tropospheric temperature.

Effects of Arctic geoengineering on precipitation in the tropical monsoon regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nalam, Aditya; Bala, Govindasamy; Modak, Angshuman

2017-07-01

Arctic geoengineering wherein sunlight absorption is reduced only in the Arctic has been suggested as a remedial measure to counteract the on-going rapid climate change in the Arctic. Several modeling studies have shown that Arctic geoengineering can minimize Arctic warming but will shift the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) southward, unless offset by comparable geoengineering in the Southern Hemisphere. In this study, we investigate and quantify the implications of this ITCZ shift due to Arctic geoengineering for the global monsoon regions using the Community Atmosphere Model version 4 coupled to a slab ocean model. A doubling of CO2 from pre-industrial levels leads to a warming of 6 K in the Arctic region and precipitation in the monsoon regions increases by up to 15%. In our Arctic geoengineering simulation which illustrates a plausible latitudinal distribution of the reduction in sunlight, an addition of sulfate aerosols (11 Mt) in the Arctic stratosphere nearly offsets the Arctic warming due to CO2 doubling but this shifts the ITCZ southward by 1.5° relative to the pre-industrial climate. The combined effect from this shift and the residual CO2-induced climate change in the tropics is a decrease/increase in annual mean precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere/Southern Hemisphere monsoon regions by up to -12/+17%. Polar geoengineering where sulfate aerosols are prescribed in both the Arctic (10 Mt) and Antarctic (8 Mt) nearly offsets the ITCZ shift due to Arctic geoengineering, but there is still a residual precipitation increase (up to 7%) in most monsoon regions associated with the residual CO2 induced warming in the tropics. The ITCZ shift due to our Global geoengineering simulation, where aerosols (20 Mt) are prescribed uniformly around the globe, is much smaller and the precipitation changes in most monsoon regions are within ±2% as the residual CO2-induced warming in the tropics is also much less than in Arctic and Polar geoengineering. Further

On the Origin of Monsoon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chao, Winston C.; Chen, Baode; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

It is a long-held fundamental belief that the basic cause of a monsoon is land-sea thermal contrast on the continental scale. Through general circulation model experiments we demonstrate that this belief should be changed. The Asian and Australian summer monsoon circulations are largely intact in an experiment in which Asia, maritime continent, and Australia are replaced by ocean. It is also shown that the change resulting from such replacement is in general due more to the removal of topography than to the removal of land-sea contrast. Therefore, land-sea contrast plays only a minor modifying role in Asian and Australian summer monsoons. This also happens to the Central American summer monsoon. However, the same thing cannot be said of the African and South American summer monsoons. In Asian and Australian winter monsoons land-sea contrast also plays only a minor role. Our interpretation for the origin of monsoon is that the summer monsoon is the result of ITCZ's (intertropical convergence zones) peak being substantially (more than 10 degrees) away from the equator. The origin of the ITCZ has been previously interpreted by Chao. The circulation around thus located ITCZ, previously interpreted by Chao and Chen through the modified Gill solution and briefly described in this paper, explains the monsoon circulation. The longitudinal location of the ITCZs is determined by the distribution of surface conditions. ITCZ's favor locations of higher SST as in western Pacific and Indian Ocean, or tropical landmass, due to land-sea contrast, as in tropical Africa and South America. Thus, the role of landmass in the origin of monsoon can be replaced by ocean of sufficiently high SST. Furthermore, the ITCZ circulation extends into the tropics in the other hemisphere to give rise to the winter monsoon circulation there. Also through the equivalence of land-sea contrast and higher SST, it is argued that the basic monsoon onset mechanism proposed by Chao is valid for all monsoons.

New spatial and temporal indices of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dwivedi, Sanjeev; Uma, R.; Lakshmi Kumar, T. V.; Narayanan, M. S.; Pokhrel, Samir; Kripalani, R. H.

2018-02-01

The overall yearly seasonal performance of Indian southwest monsoon rainfall (ISMR) for the whole Indian land mass is presently expressed by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) by a single number, the total quantum of rainfall. Any particular year is declared as excess/deficit or normal monsoon rainfall year on the basis of this single number. It is well known that monsoon rainfall also has high interannual variability in spatial and temporal scales. To account for these aspects in ISMR, we propose two new spatial and temporal indices. These indices have been calculated using the 115 years of IMD daily 0.25° × 0.25° gridded rainfall data. Both indices seem to go in tandem with the in vogue seasonal quantum index. The anomaly analysis indicates that the indices during excess monsoon years behave randomly, while for deficit monsoon years the phase of all the three indices is the same. Evaluation of these indices is also studied with respect to the existing dynamical indices based on large-scale circulation. It is found that the new temporal indices have better link with circulation indices as compared to the new spatial indices. El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) especially over the equatorial Pacific Ocean still have the largest influence in both the new indices. However, temporal indices have much better remote influence as compared to that of spatial indices. Linkages over the Indian Ocean regions are very different in both the spatial and temporal indices. Continuous wavelet transform (CWT) analysis indicates that the complete spectrum of oscillation of the QI is shared in the lower oscillation band by the spatial index and in the higher oscillation band by the temporal index. These new indices may give some extra dimension to study Indian summer monsoon variability.

South American monsoon response to iceberg discharge in the North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stríkis, Nicolás M.; Cruz, Francisco W.; Barreto, Eline A. S.; Naughton, Filipa; Vuille, Mathias; Cheng, Hai; Voelker, Antje H. L.; Zhang, Haiwei; Karmann, Ivo; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Auler, Augusto S.; Ventura Santos, Roberto; Reis Sales, Hamilton

2018-04-01

Heinrich Stadials significantly affected tropical precipitation through changes in the interhemispheric temperature gradient as a result of abrupt cooling in the North Atlantic. Here, we focus on changes in South American monsoon precipitation during Heinrich Stadials using a suite of speleothem records covering the last 85 ky B.P. from eastern South America. We document the response of South American monsoon precipitation to episodes of extensive iceberg discharge, which is distinct from the response to the cooling episodes that precede the main phase of ice-rafted detritus deposition. Our results demonstrate that iceberg discharge in the western subtropical North Atlantic led to an abrupt increase in monsoon precipitation over eastern South America. Our findings of an enhanced Southern Hemisphere monsoon, coeval with the iceberg discharge into the North Atlantic, are consistent with the observed abrupt increase in atmospheric methane concentrations during Heinrich Stadials.

A new centennial index to study the Western North Pacific Monsoon decadal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vega, Inmaculada; Gómez-Delgado, F. de Paula; Gallego, David; Ribera, Pedro; Peña-Ortiz, Cristina; García-Herrera, Ricardo

2016-04-01

The concept of the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon (WNPSM) appeared for the first time in 1987. It is, unlike the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), an oceanic monsoon mostly driven by the meridional gradient of sea surface temperature. Its circulation is characterized by a northwest-southeast oriented monsoon trough with intense precipitation and low-level southwesterlies and upper-tropospheric easterlies in the region [100°-130° E, 5°-15°N]. Up to now, the primary index to characterize the WNPSM has been the Western North Pacific Monsoon Index (WNPMI) which covers the 1949-2013 period. The original WNPMI was defined as the difference of 850-hPa westerlies between two regions: D1 [5°-15°N, 100°-130°E] and D2 [20°-30°N, 110°-140°E]. Both domains are included in the main historical ship routes circumnavigating Asia for hundreds of years. Many of the logbooks of these ships have been preserved in historical archives and they usually contain daily observations of wind force and direction. Therefore, it has been possible to compute a new index of instrumental character, which reconstructs the WNPSM back to the middle of the 19th Century, by using solely historical wind direction records preserved in logbooks. We define the monthly Western North Pacific Directional Index (WNPDI) as the sum of the persistence of the low-level westerly winds in D1 and easterly winds in D2. The advantages of this new index are its nature (instrumental) and its length (1849-2013), which is 100 years longer than the WNPMI (which was based on reanalysis data). Our WNPDI shows a high correlation (r=+0.87, p<0.01) with the previous WNPMI in summer for the 1949-2009 period, thus allowing to study the multidecadal variability of the WNPSM in a more robust way. Our results show that the WNPDI has a strong impact on the precipitation in densely populated areas in South-East Asia, such as the Philippines or the west coast of Myanmar where the

Seasonally-varying mechanical impact of the Tibetan Plateau on the South Asian Monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bordoni, S.; Park, H.

2011-12-01

Land-sea thermal contrast and heating of the atmosphere over the Tibetan Plateau have long been considered the main driving of the large-scale South-Asian monsoon circulation. Recent works (e.g., Bordoni and Schneider 2008, Boos and Kuang 2010) have challenged this prevailing view, by suggesting that monsoons can occur even in the absence of zonal inhomogeneities and that the Tibetan Plateau might be acting more as a mechanical obstacle to the circulation than as its main heat source. Elucidating the role of land-sea contrast and of the Tibetan Plateau on the current South Asian climate is the first step to understand how this might have evolved on geological time-scales and how it might respond to changing radiative forcing and land surface conditions in future decades. In this work, we examine the mechanical impact of the Tibetan Plateau on the South Asian monsoon in a hierarchy of atmospheric general circulations models. During the pre-monsoon season and monsoon onset (April-May-June), when westerlies over the southern Tibetan Plateau are still strong, the Tibetan Plateau triggers early monsoon rainfall downstream. The downstream moist convection is accompanied by strong monsoonal low-level winds and subsidence upstream of the Tibetan Plateau. In experiments where the Tibetan Plateau is removed, monsoon onset occurs about one month later, but the circulation becomes progressively stronger and reaches comparable strength during the mature phase. During the mature and decaying phase of the monsoon (July-August-September), when westerlies over the southern Tibetan Plateau almost disappear, the strength of the monsoon circulation is largely unaffected by the presence of the Plateau. A dry dynamical core with east-west oriented narrow mountains in the subtropics consistently simulates downstream convergence with background zonal westerlies over the mountain range. In a moist atmosphere, the mechanically-driven downstream convergence is expected to be associated with

Do contrails significantly reduce daily temperature range?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Gang; Yang, Ping; Minnis, Patrick; Hu, Yong X.; North, Gerald

2008-12-01

One of the most visible anthropogenic phenomena in the atmosphere is the occurrence of contrails. The direct effects of contrails on surface temperature are investigated on the basis of the data sets for the cloud cover and surface temperature over the conterminous United States for the period 1971-2001. It is shown that the increase of the average daily temperature range (DTR) over the United States during the three-day grounding period of 11-14 September 2001 cannot be attributed to the absence of contrails, a subject was debated in several previous studies. The present analysis suggests that the DTR is attributed to the change of low cloudiness.

Late Holocene SST and primary productivity variations in the northeastern Arabian Sea as a recorder for winter monsoon variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Böll, Anna; Gaye, Birgit; Lückge, Andreas

2014-05-01

Variability in the oceanic environment of the Arabian Sea region is strongly influenced by the seasonal monsoon cycle of alternating wind directions. Strong south-westerly winds during the summer monsoon induce upwelling of nutrient rich waters along the coast off Somalia, Oman and southwest India, which result in high rates of primary production. In the northeastern Arabian Sea off Pakistan on the other hand, primary production and sea surface temperatures are linked to northeast monsoonal winds that cool the sea surface and drive convective mixing and high surface ocean productivity during the winter season. In this study, we analyzed alkenone-derived sea surface temperature (SST) variations and proxies of primary productivity (organic carbon and δ15N) in a well-laminated sediment core from the Pakistan continental margin to establish the first high-resolution record of winter monsoon variability for the late Holocene. Over the last 2400 years reconstructed SST in the northeastern Arabian Sea decreased whereas productivity increased, imaging a long-term trend of northeast monsoon strengthening in response to insolation-induced southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The comparison of our winter monsoon record with records of summer monsoon intensity suggests that summer and winter monsoon strength was essentially anti-correlated over the late Holocene throughout the Asian monsoon system. In addition, SST variations recorded off Pakistan match very well with Northern Hemisphere temperature records supporting the growing body of evidence that Asian climate is linked to Northern Hemisphere climate change. It reveals a consistent pattern of increased summer monsoon activity in the northeastern Arabian Sea during northern hemispheric warm periods (Medieval Warm Period, Roman Warm Period) and strengthened winter monsoon activity during hemispheric colder periods (Little Ice Age).

A comparison of climatological observing windows and their impact on detecting daily temperature extrema

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Žaknić-Ćatović, Ana; Gough, William A.

2018-04-01

Climatological observing window (COW) is defined as a time frame over which continuous or extreme air temperature measurements are collected. A 24-h time interval, ending at 00UTC or shifted to end at 06UTC, has been associated with difficulties in characterizing daily temperature extrema. A fixed 24-h COW used to obtain the temperature minima leads to potential misidentification due to fragmentation of "nighttime" into two subsequent nighttime periods due to the time discretization interval. The correct identification of air temperature extrema is achievable using a COW that identifies daily minimum over a single nighttime period and maximum over a single daytime period, as determined by sunrise and sunset. Due to a common absence of hourly air temperature observations, the accuracy of the mean temperature estimation is dependent on the accuracy of determination of diurnal air temperature extrema. Qualitative and quantitative criteria were used to examine the impact of the COW on detecting daily air temperature extrema. The timing of the 24-h observing window occasionally affects the determination of daily extrema through a mischaracterization of the diurnal minima and by extension can lead to errors in determining daily mean temperature. Hourly air temperature data for the time period from year 1987 to 2014, obtained from Toronto Buttonville Municipal Airport weather station, were used in analysis of COW impacts on detection of daily temperature extrema and calculation of annual temperature averages based on such extrema.

Monsoon-Enso Relationships: A New Paradigm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K. M.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

This article is partly a review and partly a new research paper on monsoon-ENSO relationship. The paper begins with a discussion of the basic relationship between the Indian monsoon and ENSO dating back to the work of Sir Gilbert Walker up to research results in more recent years. Various factors that may affect the monsoon-ENSO, relationship, including regional coupled ocean-atmosphere processes, Eurasian snow cover, land-atmosphere hydrologic feedback, intraseasonal oscillation, biennial variability and inter-decadal variations, are discussed. The extreme complex and highly nonlinear nature of the monsoon-ENSO relationship is stressed. We find that for regional impacts on the monsoon, El Nino and La Nina are far from simply mirror images of each other. These two polarities of ENSO can have strong or no impacts on monsoon anomalies depending on the strength of the intraseasonal oscillations and the phases of the inter-decadal variations. For the Asian-Australian monsoon (AAM) as a whole, the ENSO impact is effected through a east-west shift in the Walker Circulation. For rainfall anomalies over specific monsoon areas, regional processes play important roles in addition to the shift in the Walker Circulation. One of the key regional processes identified for the boreal summer monsoon is the anomalous West Pacific Anticyclone (WPA). This regional feature has similar signatures in interannual and intraseasonal time scales and appears to determine whether the monsoon-ENSO relationship is strong or weak in a given year. Another important regional feature includes a rainfall and SST dipole across the Indian Ocean, which may have strong impact on the austral summer monsoon. Results are shown indicating that monsoon surface wind forcings may induce a strong biennial signal in ENSO and that strong monsoon-ENSO coupling may translate into pronounced biennial variability in ENSO. Finally, a new paradigm is proposed for the study of monsoon variability. This paradigm provides

Possible Influences of Air Pollution, Dust and Sandstorms on the Indian Monsoon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Hsu, Christina N.; Holben, Brent N.

2010-01-01

reduced precipitation. However, in the presence of increasing moist and warm air, the reduced coalescence/collision may lead to supercooled drops at higher altitudes where ice precipitation falls and melts. The latent heat release from freezing aloft and melting below implies greater upward heat transport in polluted clouds and invigorate deep convection. In this way, aerosols may lead to increased local convection. Hence, depending on the ambient large-scale conditions and dynamical feedback processes, aerosols' effect on precipitation can be positive, negative or mixed. In the Asian monsoon and adjacent regions, the aerosol forcing and responses of the water cycle are even more complex, Both direct and indirect effects may take place locally and simultaneously, interacting with each other. in addition to local effects, monsoon rainfall may be affected by aerosols transported from other regions and intensified through large-scale circulation and moisture feedback. Thus, dust transported by the large-scale circulation from the adjacent deserts to northern India may affect rainfall over the Bay of Bengal; sulphate and black carbon front industrial pollution in central, southern China and northern India may affect the rainfall regime over the Korean peninsula and Japan; organic and black carbon front biomass burning from Indo-China may modulate the pre-monsoon rainfall regime over southern China and coastal regions, contributing to variability in differential heating and cooling of the atmosphere and to the land-sea thermal contrast. During the pre-monsoon season and monsoon breaks, it has been suggested that radiative forcing by absorbing aerosols have nearly the same order of magnitude as the forcing due to latent heating from convection and surface fluxes. The magnitude of the total aerosol radiative cooling due to sulphates and soot is of the order of 20-40 W/m2 over the Asian monsoon land region in the pre-monsoon season, compared to about 1-2 W/m2 for global warng

Predicting summer monsoon of Bhutan based on SST and teleconnection indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorji, Singay; Herath, Srikantha; Mishra, Binaya Kumar; Chophel, Ugyen

2018-02-01

The paper uses a statistical method of predicting summer monsoon over Bhutan using the ocean-atmospheric circulation variables of sea surface temperature (SST), mean sea-level pressure (MSLP), and selected teleconnection indices. The predictors are selected based on the correlation. They are the SST and MSLP of the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea and the MSLP of Bangladesh and northeast India. The Northern Hemisphere teleconnections of East Atlantic Pattern (EA), West Pacific Pattern (WP), Pacific/North American Pattern, and East Atlantic/West Russia Pattern (EA/WR). The rainfall station data are grouped into two regions with principal components analysis and Ward's hierarchical clustering algorithm. A support vector machine for regression model is proposed to predict the monsoon. The model shows improved skills over traditional linear regression. The model was able to predict the summer monsoon for the test data from 2011 to 2015 with a total monthly root mean squared error of 112 mm for region A and 33 mm for region B. Model could also forecast the 2016 monsoon of the South Asia Monsoon Outlook of World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for Bhutan. The reliance on agriculture and hydropower economy makes the prediction of summer monsoon highly valuable information for farmers and various other sectors. The proposed method can predict summer monsoon for operational forecasting.

The impact of daily temperature on renal disease incidence: an ecological study.

PubMed

Borg, Matthew; Bi, Peng; Nitschke, Monika; Williams, Susan; McDonald, Stephen

2017-10-27

Extremely high temperatures over many consecutive days have been linked to an increase in renal disease in several cities. This is becoming increasingly relevant with heatwaves becoming longer, more intense, and more frequent with climate change. This study aimed to extend the known relationship between daily temperature and kidney disease to include the incidence of eight temperature-prone specific renal disease categories - total renal disease, urolithiasis, renal failure, acute kidney injury (AKI), chronic kidney disease (CKD), urinary tract infections (UTIs), lower urinary tract infections (LUTIs) and pyelonephritis. Daily data was acquired for maximum, minimum and average temperature over the period of 1 July 2003 to 31 March 2014 during the warm season (October to March) in Adelaide, South Australia. Data for daily admissions to all metropolitan hospitals for renal disease, including 83,519 emergency department admissions and 42,957 inpatient admissions, was also obtained. Renal outcomes were analyzed using time-stratified negative binomial regression models, with the results aggregated by day. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated for associations between the number of admissions and daily temperature. Increases in daily temperature per 1 °C were associated with an increased incidence for all renal disease categories except for pyelonephritis. Minimum temperature was associated with the greatest increase in renal disease followed by average temperature and then maximum temperature. A 1°C increase in daily minimum temperature was associated with an increase in daily emergency department admissions for AKI (IRR 1.037, 95% CI: 1.026-1.048), renal failure (IRR 1.030, 95% CI: 1.022-1.039), CKD (IRR 1.017, 95% CI: 1.001-1.033) urolithiasis (IRR 1.015, 95% CI: 1.010-1.020), total renal disease (IRR 1.009, 95% CI: 1.006-1.011), UTIs (IRR 1.004, 95% CI: 1.000-1.007) and LUTIs (IRR 1.003, 95% CI: 1.000-1.006). An increased

Aerosol-Monsoon Interaction, maintenance and variability of the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, C.; Lau, W. K. M.; Li, Z.

2016-12-01

In recent years, the discovery of the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL) from NASA satellite observations has sparked much interests in research on its composition, origin and relationships to the transport processes of atmospheric constituents in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) and the variability of the Asian Monsoon Anticyclone (AMA). In this paper, based on analysis of MERRA2 reanalysis data, we present results showing that: 1) water vapor, aerosols and chemical gases (BC, OC, dust and CO) originated for the earth surface contribute significantly to the composition of the ATAL during the Asian summer monsoon, 2) one of the major pathways is via the strong large-scale vertical motion, and convective ascent over the Northern Himalayan Foothills during the peak phase of the Indian monsoon, 3) once transported into the UTLS , atmospheric constituents are capped by the Tropopuase inversion Layer (TIL) and advected around within and in the vicinity of the AMA forming the ATAL, 4) the ATAL is modulated by UTLS transport processes which undergo intrinsic monsoon intraseasonal oscillations with 20-30 day quasi-periodicity, coupled to lower tropospheric monsoon dynamics and diabatic heating processes, 5) the pre-monsoon accumulation of absorbing aerosols (BC, OC and dust) over the Indo-Gangetic Plain is more than likely to play an important role in enhancing the UTLS transport of atmospheric constituents from the earth surface to the ATAL.

Satellite observations of a monsoon depression

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Warner, C.

1984-01-01

The exploration of a monsoon depression over Burma and the Bay of Bengal is discussed. Aircraft and satellite data were examined, with an emphasis on the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) aboard TIROS-N and the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) aboard Nimbus-7. The structure of the monsoon depression was found to be dominated by cumulus convection. The only systematic large scale behavior discerned was a propagation of the depression westward, and diurnal migration of contours of brightness temperature. These contours in the middle troposphere showed a gradient toward the north with the patterns migrating northward at night. From SMMR and dropwindsonde data, water vapor contents were found to be near 65 mm, increasing to more than 70 mm in the northeast Bay of Bengal. Cloud water contents reached about three mm. Rainfall rates exceeding 5.7 mm/h occurred over a small part of the storm area, while mean rainfall rates in areas of order 20,000 sq km reached approximately 0.5 mm/h. Measured MSU brightness temperatures were reconciled very well with dropwindsonde data and with airborne in situ observations of clouds (by photography) and hydrometeors (by radar). Diffuse scattering was determined to be important in computing brightness temperature.

Linkage between global sea surface temperature and hydroclimatology of a major river basin of India before and after 1980

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pattanayak, Sonali; Nanjundiah, Ravi S.; Nagesh Kumar, D.

2017-12-01

The frequent occurrence of flood and drought worldwide has drawn attention to assessing whether the hydroclimatology of major river basins has changed. The Mahanadi river basin (MRB) is the major source of fresh water for both Chattisgarh and Odisha states (71 million people approximately) in India. The MRB (141 600 km2 area) is one of the most vulnerable to climate change and variations in temperature and precipitation. In recent years, it has repeatedly faced adverse hydrometeorological conditions. Large-scale ocean-atmospheric phenomena have a substantial influence on river hydroclimatology. Hence global sea surface temperature (SST) linkage with the precipitation and surface temperature of the MRB was analyzed over the period 1950-2012. Significant changes in seasonal correlation patterns were witnessed from 1950-1980 (PR-80) to 1981-2012 (PO-80). The correlation was higher during PR-80 compared to PO-80 between the El Niño region SST versus the maximum temperature (T max) in all seasons except the pre-monsoon season and the minimum temperature (T min) in all seasons except the monsoon season. However, precipitation correlation changes are not prominent. Like the SST, the correlation patterns of sea level pressure with precipitation, T max and T min shifted conspicuously from PR-80 to PO-80. These shifts could be related to change in Pacific decadal SST patterns and anthropogenic effects. Fingerprint-based detection and attribution analysis revealed that the observed changes in T min (pre-monsoon and monsoon season) during the second half of the 20th century cannot be explained solely by natural variability and can be attributed to an anthropogenic effect.

Inverse correlation between daily outdoor temperature and blood pressure in six US cities.

PubMed

Radin, Jennifer M; Neems, Daniel; Goglia, Ross; Siddiqui, Khan; Steinhubl, Steven R

2018-06-01

This study aims to evaluate the relationship between mean outdoor temperature and mean daily blood pressure (BP) and heart rate (HR) among six, large, geographically and climatically diverse US cities. We collected BP and HR data from Higi stations, located in a wide range of neighborhood grocery stores and retail pharmacies, from six US cities (Houston, Los Angeles, Miami, Boise, Chicago, and New York City). Outdoor daily temperature data were collected from the National Centers for Environmental Information's database. Pearson's correlation was used to assess the linear relationship between mean daily outdoor temperature and mean daily BP and HR for each city from May 2016 through April 2017. A total of 2 140 626 BP and HR readings were recorded in the six study cities. Mean outdoor temperature was inversely correlated with both mean daily average systolic (r=-0.69, P<0.0001) and diastolic (r=-0.71; P<0.0001) BPs, but not HR (r<0.0001, P=0.48). We also found that temperature change had a larger impact on BP in equatorial climates such as Miami compared with colder and more temperature variable cities like Chicago and Boise. Previous studies have found that BP varies seasonally, but few have looked at the impact of daily temperature on both BP and HR changes. Our study is one of the largest and most climatically diverse populations ever looking at this relationship. Our results suggest that temperature, and perhaps geography, should play a role in tailoring individualized evaluation and treatment for hypertensive diseases.

Revisiting the Observed Correlation Between Weekly Averaged Indian Monsoon Precipitation and Arabian Sea Aerosol Optical Depth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, D.; Miller, R. L.

2017-12-01

Dust influences the Indian summer monsoon on seasonal timescales by perturbing atmospheric radiation. On weekly time scales, aerosol optical depth retrieved by satellite over the Arabian Sea is correlated with Indian monsoon precipitation. This has been interpreted to show the effect of dust radiative heating on Indian rainfall on synoptic (few-day) time scales. However, this correlation is reproduced by Earth System Model simulations, where dust is present but its radiative effect is omitted. Analysis of daily variability suggests that the correlation results from the effect of precipitation on dust through the associated cyclonic circulation. Boundary layer winds that deliver moisture to India are responsible for dust outbreaks in source regions far upwind, including the Arabian Peninsula. This suggests that synoptic variations in monsoon precipitation over India enhance dust emission and transport to the Arabian Sea. The effect of dust radiative heating upon synoptic monsoon variations remains to be determined.

Revisiting the observed correlation between weekly averaged Indian monsoon precipitation and Arabian Sea aerosol optical depth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Disha; Miller, Ron L.

2017-10-01

Dust influences the Indian summer monsoon on seasonal time scales by perturbing atmospheric radiation. On weekly time scales, aerosol optical depth retrieved by satellite over the Arabian Sea is correlated with Indian monsoon precipitation. This has been interpreted to show the effect of dust radiative heating on Indian rainfall on synoptic (few-day) time scales. However, this correlation is reproduced by Earth System Model simulations, where dust is present but its radiative effect is omitted. Analysis of daily variability suggests that the correlation results from the effect of precipitation on dust through the associated cyclonic circulation. Boundary layer winds that deliver moisture to India are responsible for dust outbreaks in source regions far upwind, including the Arabian Peninsula. This suggests that synoptic variations in monsoon precipitation over India enhance dust emission and transport to the Arabian Sea. The effect of dust radiative heating upon synoptic monsoon variations remains to be determined.

Daily Temperature and Precipitation Data for 223 Former-USSR Stations (NDP-040)

DOE Data Explorer

Razuvaev, V. N. [Russian Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information-World Data Centre; Apasova, E. B. [Russian Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information-World Data Centre; Martuganov, R. A. [Russian Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information-World Data Centre

1990-01-01

The stations in this dataset are considered by RIHMI to comprise one of the best networks suitable for temperature and precipitation monitoring over the the former-USSR. Factors involved in choosing these 223 stations included length or record, amount of missing data, and achieving reasonably good geographic coverage. There are indeed many more stations with daily data over this part of the world, and hundreds more station records are available through NOAA's Global Historical Climatology Network - Daily (GHCND) database. The 223 stations comprising this database are included in GHCND, but different data processing, updating, and quality assurance methods/checks mean that the agreement between records will vary depending on the station. The relative quality and accuracy of the common station records in the two databases also cannot be easily assessed. As of this writing, most of the common stations contained in the GHCND have more recent records, but not necessarily records starting as early as the records available here. This database contains four variables: daily mean, minimum, and maximum temperature, and daily total precipitation (liquid equivalent). Temperature were taken three times a day from 1881-1935, four times a day from 1936-65, and eight times a day since 1966. Daily mean temperature is defined as the average of all observations for each calendar day. Daily maximum/minimum temperatures are derived from maximum/minimum thermometer measurements. See the measurement description file for further details. Daily precipitation totals are also available (to the nearest tenth of a millimeter) for each station. Throughout the record, daily precipitation is defined as the total amount of precipitation recorded during a 24-h period, snowfall being converted to a liquid total by melting the snow in the gauge. From 1936 on, rain gauges were checked several times each day; the cumulative total of all observations during a calendar day was presumably used as the

Daily Mean Temperature Affects Urolithiasis Presentation in Seoul: a Time-series Analysis.

PubMed

Lee, SeoYeon; Kim, Min-Su; Kim, Jung Hoon; Kwon, Jong Kyou; Chi, Byung Hoon; Kim, Jin Wook; Chang, In Ho

2016-05-01

This study aimed to investigate the overall cumulative exposure-response and the lag response relationships between daily temperature and urolithiasis presentation in Seoul. Using a time-series design and distributing lag nonlinear methods, we estimated the relative risk (RR) of urolithiasis presentation associated with mean daily temperature, including the cumulative RR for a 20 days period, and RR for individual daily lag through 20 days. We analyzed data from 14,518 patients of 4 hospitals emergency department who sought medical evaluation or treatment of urolithiasis from 2005-2013 in Seoul. RR was estimated according to sex and age. Associations between mean daily temperature and urolithiasis presentation were not monotonic. Furthermore, there was variation in the exposure-response curve shapes and the strength of association at different temperatures, although in most cases RRs increased for temperatures above the 13°C reference value. The RRs for urolothiasis at 29°C vs. 13°C were 2.54 in all patients (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.67-3.87), 2.59 in male (95% CI, 1.56-4.32), 2.42 in female (95% CI, 1.15-5.07), 3.83 in male less than 40 years old (95% CI, 1.78-8.26), and 2.47 in male between 40 and 60 years old (95% CI, 1.15-5.34). Consistent trends of increasing RR of urolithiasis presentation were observed within 5 days of high temperatures across all groups. Urolithiasis presentation increased with high temperature with higher daily mean temperatures, with the strongest associations estimated for lags of only a few days, in Seoul, a metropolitan city in Korea.

Impact of East Asian Summer Monsoon on the Air Quality over China: View from space

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, Chun; Wang, Yuhang; Yang, Qing

2010-05-04

Tropospheric O3 columns retrieved from OMI and MLS measurements, CO columns from MOPITT, and tropospheric O3 and CO concentrations from TES from May to August in 2006 are analyzed using the Regional chEmical and trAnsport Model (REAM) to investigate the impact of the East Asian summer monsoon on the air quality over China. The observed and simulated migrations of O3 and CO are in good agreement, demonstrating that the summer monsoon significantly affects the air quality over southeastern China and this influence extends to central East China from June to July. Enhancements of CO and O3 over southeastern China disappearmore » after the onset of the summer monsoon and re-emerge in August after the monsoon wanes. The pre-monsoon high O3 concentrations over southern China are due to photochemical production from pollutant emissions and the O3 transport from the stratosphere. In the summer monsoon season, the O3 concentrations are relatively low over monsoon-affected regions because of the transport of marine air masses and weak photochemical activity. We find that the monsoon system strongly modulates the pollution problem over a large portion of East China in summer, depending on its strength and tempo-spatial extension. Model results also suggest that transport from the stratosphere and long-range transport from East China and South/Central Asia all make significant contributions to O3 enhancements over West China. Satellite observations provide valuable information for investigating the monsoon impact on air quality, particularly for the regions with limited in situ measurements.« less

Differential impact of monsoon and large amplitude internal waves on coral reef development in the Andaman Sea.

PubMed

Wall, Marlene; Schmidt, Gertraud Maria; Janjang, Pornpan; Khokiattiwong, Somkiat; Richter, Claudio

2012-01-01

The Andaman Sea and other macrotidal semi-enclosed tropical seas feature large amplitude internal waves (LAIW). Although LAIW induce strong fluctuations i.e. of temperature, pH, and nutrients, their influence on reef development is so far unknown. A better-known source of disturbance is the monsoon affecting corals due to turbulent mixing and sedimentation. Because in the Andaman Sea both, LAIW and monsoon, act from the same westerly direction their relative contribution to reef development is difficult to discern. Here, we explore the framework development in a number of offshore island locations subjected to differential LAIW- and SW-monsoon impact to address this open question. Cumulative negative temperature anomalies - a proxy for LAIW impact - explained a higher percentage of the variability in coral reef framework height, than sedimentation rates which resulted mainly from the monsoon. Temperature anomalies and sediment grain size provided the best correlation with framework height suggesting that so far neglected subsurface processes (LAIW) play a significant role in shaping coral reefs.

The impact of monsoon intraseasonal variability on renewable power generation in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunning, C. M.; Turner, A. G.; Brayshaw, D. J.

2015-06-01

India is increasingly investing in renewable technology to meet rising energy demands, with hydropower and other renewables comprising one-third of current installed capacity. Installed wind-power is projected to increase 5-fold by 2035 (to nearly 100GW) under the International Energy Agency's New Policies scenario. However, renewable electricity generation is dependent upon the prevailing meteorology, which is strongly influenced by monsoon variability. Prosperity and widespread electrification are increasing the demand for air conditioning, especially during the warm summer. This study uses multi-decadal observations and meteorological reanalysis data to assess the impact of intraseasonal monsoon variability on the balance of electricity supply from wind-power and temperature-related demand in India. Active monsoon phases are characterized by vigorous convection and heavy rainfall over central India. This results in lower temperatures giving lower cooling energy demand, while strong westerly winds yield high wind-power output. In contrast, monsoon breaks are characterized by suppressed precipitation, with higher temperatures and hence greater demand for cooling, and lower wind-power output across much of India. The opposing relationship between wind-power supply and cooling demand during active phases (low demand, high supply) and breaks (high demand, low supply) suggests that monsoon variability will tend to exacerbate fluctuations in the so-called demand-net-wind (i.e., electrical demand that must be supplied from non-wind sources). This study may have important implications for the design of power systems and for investment decisions in conventional schedulable generation facilities (such as coal and gas) that are used to maintain the supply/demand balance. In particular, if it is assumed (as is common) that the generated wind-power operates as a price-taker (i.e., wind farm operators always wish to sell their power, irrespective of price) then investors in

Structured teleconnections reveal the South American monsoon onset: A network approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciemer, Catrin; Ekhtiari, Nikoo; Barbosa, Henrique; Boers, Niklas; Donner, Reik; Kurths, Jürgen; Rammig, Anja; Winkelmann, Ricarda

2017-04-01

The regional onset dates of the global monsoon systems are, to first order, determined by the seasonal shift of the intertropical convergence zone. However, precise onset dates vary substantially from year to year due to the complexity of the involved mechanisms. In this study, we investigate processes determining the onset of the South American monsoon system (SAMS). In recent years, a trend towards later onset dates of the SAMS has been observed. A later onset of the monsoon can have severe impacts on agriculture and infrastructure such as farming, water transport routes, and the stability of the Amazon rainforest in the long term. Possible reasons for this shift involve a multitude of climatic phenomena and variables relevant for the SAMS. To account for the highly interactive nature of the SAMS, we here investigate it with the help of complex networks. By studying the temporal changes of the correlation structure in spatial rainfall networks, we are able to determine coherent areas of similar precipitation patterns, spot teleconnections in terms of strongly correlated areas, detect key regions for precipitation correlations, and finally reveal the monsoon onset by an abrupt shift from an unordered to an ordered correlation structure of the network. To further evaluate the shift in the monsoon onset, we couple our rainfall network to a network of climate networks using sea surface temperature as a second variable. We are thereby able to emphasize oceanic regions that are particularly important for the SAMS and anticipate the influence of future changes of sea-surface temperature on the SAMS.

A regional neural network model for predicting mean daily river water temperature

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Tyler; DeWeber, Jefferson Tyrell

2014-01-01

Water temperature is a fundamental property of river habitat and often a key aspect of river resource management, but measurements to characterize thermal regimes are not available for most streams and rivers. As such, we developed an artificial neural network (ANN) ensemble model to predict mean daily water temperature in 197,402 individual stream reaches during the warm season (May–October) throughout the native range of brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis in the eastern U.S. We compared four models with different groups of predictors to determine how well water temperature could be predicted by climatic, landform, and land cover attributes, and used the median prediction from an ensemble of 100 ANNs as our final prediction for each model. The final model included air temperature, landform attributes and forested land cover and predicted mean daily water temperatures with moderate accuracy as determined by root mean squared error (RMSE) at 886 training sites with data from 1980 to 2009 (RMSE = 1.91 °C). Based on validation at 96 sites (RMSE = 1.82) and separately for data from 2010 (RMSE = 1.93), a year with relatively warmer conditions, the model was able to generalize to new stream reaches and years. The most important predictors were mean daily air temperature, prior 7 day mean air temperature, and network catchment area according to sensitivity analyses. Forest land cover at both riparian and catchment extents had relatively weak but clear negative effects. Predicted daily water temperature averaged for the month of July matched expected spatial trends with cooler temperatures in headwaters and at higher elevations and latitudes. Our ANN ensemble is unique in predicting daily temperatures throughout a large region, while other regional efforts have predicted at relatively coarse time steps. The model may prove a useful tool for predicting water temperatures in sampled and unsampled rivers under current conditions and future projections of climate

The relationship between Arabian Sea upwelling and Indian Monsoon revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, Xing; Zorita, Eduardo; Hünicke, Birgit

2015-04-01

Coastal upwelling is important to marine ecosystems and human activities. It transports nutrient-rich deep water mass that supports marine biological productivity. In this study, we aim to characterize the large-scale climate forcings that drive upwelling along the western Arabian Sea coast. Studies based on ocean sediments suggest that there is a link between this coastal upwelling system and the Indian summer monsoon. However, a more direct method is needed to examine the influence of various forcings on upwelling. For this purpose, we analyse a high-resolution (about 10 km) global ocean simulation (denoted STORM), which is based on the MPI-OM model developed by the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg driven by the global meteorological reanalysis NCEP over the period 1950-2010. This very high spatial resolution allows us to identify characteristics of the coastal upwelling system. We compare the simulated upwelling velocity of STORM with two traditional upwelling indices: along-shore wind speed and sea surface temperature. The analysis reveals good consistency between these variables, with high correlations between coastal upwelling and along-shore wind speed (r=0.85) as well as coastal sea surface temperature (r=-0.77). To study the impact of the monsoon on the upwelling we analyse both temporal and spatial co-variability between upwelling velocity and the Indian summer monsoon index. The spatial analysis shows that the impact of the monsoon on the upwelling is concentrated along the coast, as expected. However, somewhat unexpectedly, the temporal correlation between the coastal upwelling and the monsoon index is rather weak (r=0.26). Also, the spatial structure of upwelling in the Arabian Sea as revealed by a Principal Component Analysis is rather rich, indicating that factors other than the Monsoon are also important drivers of upwelling. In addition, no detectable trend in our coastal upwelling is found in the simulation that would match the

Influence of preonset land atmospheric conditions on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rai, Archana; Saha, Subodh K.; Pokhrel, Samir; Sujith, K.; Halder, Subhadeep

2015-05-01

A possible link between preonset land atmospheric conditions and the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is explored. It is shown that, the preonset positive (negative) rainfall anomaly over northwest India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran is associated with decrease (increase) in ISMR, primarily in the months of June and July, which in turn affects the seasonal mean. ISMR in the months of June and July is also strongly linked with the preonset 2 m air temperature over the same regions. The preonset rainfall/2 m air temperature variability is linked with stationary Rossby wave response, which is clearly evident in the wave activity flux diagnostics. As the predictability of Indian summer monsoon relies mainly on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the found link may further enhance our ability to predict the monsoon, particularly during a non-ENSO year.

Formation of the southern Bay of Bengal cold pool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, Umasankar; Vinayachandran, P. N.; Behara, Ambica

2016-09-01

A pool of relatively cooler water, called here as the southern Bay of Bengal cold pool, exists around Sri Lanka and southern tip of India during the summer monsoon. This cold pool is enveloped by the larger Indian Ocean warm pool and is believed to affect the intraseasonal variations of summer monsoon rainfall. In this study, we have investigated the mechanisms responsible for the formation of the cold pool using a combination of both satellite data sets and a general circulation model of the Indian Ocean. Sea surface temperature (SST) within the cold pool, after the steady increase during the February-April period, decreases first during a pre-monsoon spell in April and then with the monsoon onset during May. The onset cooling is stronger (~1.8°C) than the pre-monsoon cooling (~0.8°C) and culminates in the formation of the cold pool. Analysis of the model temperature equation shows that SST decrease during both events is primarily due to a decrease in incoming solar radiation and an increase in latent heat loss. These changes in the net heat flux are brought about by the arrival of cloud bands above the cold pool during both periods. During the pre-monsoon period, a cloud band originates in the western equatorial Indian Ocean and subsequently arrives above the cold pool. Similarly, during the monsoon onset, a band of clouds originating in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean comes over the cold pool region. A lead-lag correlation calculation between daily SST and rainfall anomalies suggest that cooling in SST occurs in response to rainfall events with a lag of 5 days. These sequence of events occur every year with certain amount of interannual variability.

Reanalysis of the Indian summer monsoon: four dimensional data assimilation of AIRS retrievals in a regional data assimilation and modeling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Attada, Raju; Parekh, Anant; Chowdary, J. S.; Gnanaseelan, C.

2018-04-01

This work is the first attempt to produce a multi-year downscaled regional reanalysis of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational analyses and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) version 5 temperature and moisture retrievals in a regional model. Reanalysis of nine monsoon seasons (2003-2011) are produced in two parallel setups. The first set of experiments simply downscale the original NCEP operational analyses, whilst the second one assimilates the AIRS temperature and moisture profiles. The results show better representation of the key monsoon features such as low level jet, tropical easterly jet, subtropical westerly jet, monsoon trough and the spatial pattern of precipitation when AIRS profiles are assimilated (compared to those without AIRS data assimilation). The distribution of temperature, moisture and meridional gradients of dynamical and thermodynamical fields over the monsoon region are better represented in the reanalysis that assimilates AIRS profiles. The change induced by AIRS data on the moist and thermodynamic conditions results in more realistic rendering of the vertical shear associated with the monsoon, which in turn leads to a proper moisture transport and the moist convective feedback. This feedback benefits the representation of the regional monsoon characteristics, the monsoon dynamics and the moist convective processes on the seasonal time scale. This study emphasizes the use of AIRS soundings for downscaling of ISM representation in a regional reanalysis.

Potential of collocated radiometer and wind profiler observations for monsoon studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balaji, B.; Prabha, Thara V.; Jaya Rao, Y.; Kiran, T.; Dinesh, G.; Chakravarty, Kaustav; Sonbawne, S. M.; Rajeevan, M.

2017-09-01

Collocated observations from microwave radiometer and wind profiler are used in a pilot study during the monsoon period to derive information on the thermodynamics and winds and association with rainfall characteristics. These instruments were operated throughout the monsoon season of 2015. Continuous vertical profiles of winds, temperature and humidity show significant promise for understanding the low-level jet, its periodicity and its association with moisture transport, clouds and precipitation embedded within the monsoon large-scale convection. Observations showed mutually beneficial in explaining variability that are part of the low frequency oscillations and the diurnal variability during monsoon. These observations highlight the importance of locally driven convective systems, in the presence of weak moisture transport over the area. The episodic moisture convergence showed a periodicity of 9 days which matches with the subsequent convection and precipitation and thermodynamic regimes. Inferences from the diurnal cycle of moisture transport and the convective activity, relationship with the low-level jet characteristics and thermodynamics are also illustrated.

Modeling maximum daily temperature using a varying coefficient regression model

Treesearch

Han Li; Xinwei Deng; Dong-Yum Kim; Eric P. Smith

2014-01-01

Relationships between stream water and air temperatures are often modeled using linear or nonlinear regression methods. Despite a strong relationship between water and air temperatures and a variety of models that are effective for data summarized on a weekly basis, such models did not yield consistently good predictions for summaries such as daily maximum temperature...

Seasonal Transitions and the Westerly Jet in the Holocene East Asian Summer Monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiang, J. C. H.; Kong, W.; Swenson, L. M.

2016-12-01

The Holocene East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) evolution was previously characterized as a trend towards weaker monsoon intensity paced by orbital insolation. We argue that this evolution is more accurately characterized as changes in the transition timing and duration of the EASM seasonal stages (Spring, pre Mei-Yu, Mei-Yu, Midsummer), and tied to the north-south displacement of the westerlies relative to Tibet. To this end, we employ atmospheric general circulation model time-slice simulations across the Holocene, and objectively identify the transition timing and duration of the EASM seasonal stages. Compared to the late Holocene, we find an earlier onset of Mei-Yu and an earlier transition from Mei-Yu to Summer in the early-mid Holocene, resulting in a shortened Mei-Yu and prolonged Summer stage. These changes are accompanied by an earlier northward positioning of the westerlies relative to Tibet. Our hypothesis provides a more satisfactory explanation for two key observations of Holocene East Asian climate: the `asynchronous Holocene optimum', and changes to East Asian dustiness. Our results highlight a key difference in the way that the East Asian monsoon dynamically responds to precessional insolation changes compared to the other monsoons. For other monsoon systems, changes to the land-ocean contrast drive changes to monsoon intensity. While this also occurs for the East Asian monsoon, more importantly changes to the meridional position of the westerlies relative to the Tibetan Plateau determine the timing of seasonal transitions; a northward shift triggers earlier seasonal rainfall transitions and in particular a shorter Mei-Yu and longer Midsummer stage. By similar reasoning, changes to obliquity also strongly affect East Asian summer monsoon seasonality, with a larger tilt resulting in earlier northward shift of the westerlies.

Estimation of body temperature rhythm based on heart activity parameters in daily life.

PubMed

Sooyoung Sim; Heenam Yoon; Hosuk Ryou; Kwangsuk Park

2014-01-01

Body temperature contains valuable health related information such as circadian rhythm and menstruation cycle. Also, it was discovered from previous studies that body temperature rhythm in daily life is related with sleep disorders and cognitive performances. However, monitoring body temperature with existing devices during daily life is not easy because they are invasive, intrusive, or expensive. Therefore, the technology which can accurately and nonintrusively monitor body temperature is required. In this study, we developed body temperature estimation model based on heart rate and heart rate variability parameters. Although this work was inspired by previous research, we originally identified that the model can be applied to body temperature monitoring in daily life. Also, we could find out that normalized Mean heart rate (nMHR) and frequency domain parameters of heart rate variability showed better performance than other parameters. Although we should validate the model with more number of subjects and consider additional algorithms to decrease the accumulated estimation error, we could verify the usefulness of this approach. Through this study, we expect that we would be able to monitor core body temperature and circadian rhythm from simple heart rate monitor. Then, we can obtain various health related information derived from daily body temperature rhythm.

Recent increase in maximum temperature at the tropical treeline of North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biondi, F.

2009-12-01

There are only a handful of weather stations above 3000 m in the entire American Cordillera, from Alaska to Tierra del Fuego. I present a surface instrumental record of high elevation (treeline) ecoclimatic variables for the tropics of North America. Besides its high elevation (3760 m) and tropical (19.5°N) features, this site is also located in the North American Monsoon System, making the data relevant to a broad suite of environmental issues. Automated half-hour data collected on Nevado de Colima, Mexico, from 2001 to 2009 show an increase in maximum temperature during the dry winter season, while incoming solar radiation remained stationary. Since minimum temperature did not increase as much, the daily range of air temperature has expanded over time. At this elevation, with average daily barometric pressure of 655 ± 1.4 hPa, maximum temperatures reflect the annual and daily energy cycle because of the dominant role of ground heating caused by incoming shortwave radiation. In fact, spring is the warmest season in this area, as it is followed by pronounced cooling during the summer monsoon because of increased cloudiness. The observed warming is associated with reduced wind speed, especially around solar noon, and is therefore most likely driven by reduced atmospheric flow, suggesting that the energy and water balance of high elevation tropical ecosystems are changing in unexpected ways. Further measurements and regional modeling experiments are therefore needed, given the staggering consequences this could have for any resource managers and policy makers concerned with trans-boundary (Mexico-US) terrestrial, coastal, and oceanic issues.

Statistical Modeling of Daily Stream Temperature for Mitigating Fish Mortality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldwell, R. J.; Rajagopalan, B.

2011-12-01

Water allocations in the Central Valley Project (CVP) of California require the consideration of short- and long-term needs of many socioeconomic factors including, but not limited to, agriculture, urban use, flood mitigation/control, and environmental concerns. The Endangered Species Act (ESA) ensures that the decision-making process provides sufficient water to limit the impact on protected species, such as salmon, in the Sacramento River Valley. Current decision support tools in the CVP were deemed inadequate by the National Marine Fisheries Service due to the limited temporal resolution of forecasts for monthly stream temperature and fish mortality. Finer scale temporal resolution is necessary to account for the stream temperature variations critical to salmon survival and reproduction. In addition, complementary, long-range tools are needed for monthly and seasonal management of water resources. We will present a Generalized Linear Model (GLM) framework of maximum daily stream temperatures and related attributes, such as: daily stream temperature range, exceedance/non-exceedance of critical threshold temperatures, and the number of hours of exceedance. A suite of predictors that impact stream temperatures are included in the models, including current and prior day values of streamflow, water temperatures of upstream releases from Shasta Dam, air temperature, and precipitation. Monthly models are developed for each stream temperature attribute at the Balls Ferry gauge, an EPA compliance point for meeting temperature criteria. The statistical framework is also coupled with seasonal climate forecasts using a stochastic weather generator to provide ensembles of stream temperature scenarios that can be used for seasonal scale water allocation planning and decisions. Short-term weather forecasts can also be used in the framework to provide near-term scenarios useful for making water release decisions on a daily basis. The framework can be easily translated to other

Spatial variation of deterministic chaos in mean daily temperature and rainfall over Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuwape, I. A.; Ogunjo, S. T.; Oluyamo, S. S.; Rabiu, A. B.

2017-10-01

Daily rainfall and temperature data from 47 locations across Nigeria for the 36-year period 1979-2014 were treated to time series analysis technique to investigate some nonlinear trends in rainfall and temperature data. Some quantifiers such as Lyapunov exponents, correlation dimension, and entropy were obtained for the various locations. Positive Lyapunov exponents were obtained for the time series of mean daily rainfall for all locations in the southern part of Nigeria while negative Lyapunov exponents were obtained for all locations in the Northern part of Nigeria. The mean daily temperature had positive Lyapunov exponent values (0.35-1.6) for all the locations. Attempts were made in reconstructing the phase space of time series of rainfall and temperature.

Stable isotope ratios in rainfall and water vapour at Bangalore, Southern India during the monsoon period of 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peethambaran, Rahul; Ghosh, Prosenjit

2015-04-01

Rainwater and water vapour were collected during monsoon rainfall from Bangalore station to identifying the signature of moisture sources. Moisture responsible for the rainfall originates from Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal and advected to the station together with vapour generated from the local . Total no of samples includes 72 for water vapour and 81 for rainwater respectively. The mean difference between water vapour and rainwater was found to be -13.27±2.5 ‰ for δ18O, -100±9 ‰ for δD, which was calculated from monthly mean values of water vapour and rainwater. The most enriched samples of rainwater and water vapour were found during the pre monsoon months which correspond to temperature maximum at the study location. Lighter isotopic ratios were recorded in samples collected during the starting of monsoon showers which goes to further depletion in δ18O during the period of post monsoon. This was mainly due to the change in the prevailing wind direction from southwest to northeast. Local Meteoric Water Line (LMWL) generated for rainwater (d = 7.49 δ 18O + 5.2555, R² = 0.93) equation suggesting enrichment due to evaporation. Local Vapour Line (LVL) (d = 7.5248 δ 18O + 6.6534,R² = 0.8957) indicates the dominance of vapor from local source. The time series of d-xcess of rainwater and water vapor reveals large variability, coinciding with the presence of transported and local sources. It was observed that rainwater and water vapor exhibits higher values indicating re-evaporation from the region. Repetition of this feature demonstrated pattern of moisture recycling in the atmosphere and the contribution of continental evaporation and transpiration. The sensitivity of isotopes to the sudden change in wind direction was documented by an abrupt variations in the isotope values. Such changes in wind patterns were mostly associated with the prevalence of low pressure depression systems during the monsoon periods. Detailed analysis on role of wind patterns and

Indian monsoon dominates runoff of southern Himalayas—taking Langtang region as an example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, R.; Shi, J.; He, Y.; Hu, G.

2016-12-01

Abstract: Inland Glacier and Indian monsoon are the major source of water supply for human being in the Himalayas. It is vital to study the characteristics of runoff with glacier melting and Indian monsoon precipitation and the relationship between climate change and these processes overall. In this study, we have focused on the Langtang region in the southern slope of the Himalayas. We have used TRMM data to study the precipitation and MODIS data to study the temperature in the Himalayas and a distributed conceptual model has been applied to runoff modeling. The runoff from modeling based on precipitation and temperature can be validated with the in-situ observation in the Langtang region. The results show a decreasing trend of the runoff in the Langtang region which is similar to the decreasing trend of the TRMM precipitation data. It seems that precipitation is mainly controlling the runoff in the Langtang region and that the summer Indian monsoon rather than glacier melting is dominating the runoff in the Langtang region since the summer precipitation in the Southern slope of the Himalayas is mainly from the Indian summer monsoon.

Effects of large-scale deforestation on precipitation in the monsoon regions: Remote versus local effects

PubMed Central

Devaraju, N.; Bala, Govindasamy; Modak, Angshuman

2015-01-01

In this paper, using idealized climate model simulations, we investigate the biogeophysical effects of large-scale deforestation on monsoon regions. We find that the remote forcing from large-scale deforestation in the northern middle and high latitudes shifts the Intertropical Convergence Zone southward. This results in a significant decrease in precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions (East Asia, North America, North Africa, and South Asia) and moderate precipitation increases in the Southern Hemisphere monsoon regions (South Africa, South America, and Australia). The magnitude of the monsoonal precipitation changes depends on the location of deforestation, with remote effects showing a larger influence than local effects. The South Asian Monsoon region is affected the most, with 18% decline in precipitation over India. Our results indicate that any comprehensive assessment of afforestation/reforestation as climate change mitigation strategies should carefully evaluate the remote effects on monsoonal precipitation alongside the large local impacts on temperatures. PMID:25733889

Effects of large-scale deforestation on precipitation in the monsoon regions: remote versus local effects.

PubMed

Devaraju, N; Bala, Govindasamy; Modak, Angshuman

2015-03-17

In this paper, using idealized climate model simulations, we investigate the biogeophysical effects of large-scale deforestation on monsoon regions. We find that the remote forcing from large-scale deforestation in the northern middle and high latitudes shifts the Intertropical Convergence Zone southward. This results in a significant decrease in precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions (East Asia, North America, North Africa, and South Asia) and moderate precipitation increases in the Southern Hemisphere monsoon regions (South Africa, South America, and Australia). The magnitude of the monsoonal precipitation changes depends on the location of deforestation, with remote effects showing a larger influence than local effects. The South Asian Monsoon region is affected the most, with 18% decline in precipitation over India. Our results indicate that any comprehensive assessment of afforestation/reforestation as climate change mitigation strategies should carefully evaluate the remote effects on monsoonal precipitation alongside the large local impacts on temperatures.

Regional trends in early-monsoon rainfall over Vietnam and CCSM4 attribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, R.; Wang, S. S.-Y.; Gillies, R. R.; Buckley, B. M.; Yoon, J.-H.; Cho, C.

2018-04-01

The analysis of precipitation trends for Vietnam revealed that early-monsoon precipitation has increased over the past three decades but to varying degrees over the northern, central and southern portions of the country. Upon investigation, it was found that the change in early-monsoon precipitation is associated with changes in the low-level cyclonic airflow over the South China Sea and Indochina that is embedded in the large-scale atmospheric circulation associated with a "La Niña-like" anomalous sea surface temperature pattern with warming in the western Pacific and Indian Oceans and cooling in the eastern Pacific. The Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) was subsequently used for an attribution analysis. Over northern Vietnam an early-monsoon increase in precipitation is attributed to changes in both greenhouse gases and natural forcing. For central Vietnam, the observed increase in early-monsoon precipitation is reproduced by the simulation forced with greenhouse gases. However, over southern Vietnam the early-monsoon precipitation increase is less definitive where aerosols were seen to be preponderant but natural forcing through the role of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation may well be a factor that is not resolved by CCSM4. Increased early-monsoonal precipitation over the coastal lowland and deltas has the potential to amplify economic and human losses.

Climate response of the South Asian monsoon system to anthropogenic aerosols

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ganguly, Dilip; Rasch, Philip J.; Wang, Hailong

2012-07-13

The equilibrium climate response to the total effects (direct, indirect and semi-direct effects) of aerosols arising from anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions on the South Asian summer monsoon system is studied using a coupled atmosphere-slab ocean model. Our results suggest that anthropogenic and biomass burning aerosols generally induce a reduction in mean summer monsoon precipitation over most parts of the Indian subcontinent, strongest along the western coastline of the Indian peninsula and eastern Nepal region, but modest increases also occur over the north western part of the subcontinent. While most of the noted reduction in precipitation is triggered by increasedmore » emissions of aerosols from anthropogenic activities, modest increases in the north west are mostly associated with decreases in local emissions of aerosols from forest fire and grass fire sources. Anthropogenic aerosols from outside Asia also contribute to the overall reduction in precipitation but the dominant contribution comes from aerosol sources within Asia. Local emissions play a more important role in the total rainfall response to anthropogenic aerosol sources during the early monsoon period, whereas both local as well as remote emissions of aerosols play almost equally important roles during the later part of the monsoon period. While precipitation responses are primarily driven by local aerosol forcing, regional surface temperature changes over the region are strongly influenced by anthropogenic aerosols from sources further away (non-local changes). Changes in local anthropogenic organic and black carbon emissions by as much as a factor of two (preserving their ratio) produce the same basic signatures in the model's summer monsoon temperature and precipitation responses.« less

Systematic errors in the simulation of the Asian summer monsoon: the role of rainfall variability on a range of time and space scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Gill; Levine, Richard; Klingaman, Nicholas; Bush, Stephanie; Turner, Andrew; Woolnough, Steven

2015-04-01

Despite considerable efforts worldwide to improve model simulations of the Asian summer monsoon, significant biases still remain in climatological seasonal mean rainfall distribution, timing of the onset, and northward and eastward extent of the monsoon domain (Sperber et al., 2013). Many modelling studies have shown sensitivity to convection and boundary layer parameterization, cloud microphysics and land surface properties, as well as model resolution. Here we examine the problems in representing short-timescale rainfall variability (related to convection parameterization), problems in representing synoptic-scale systems such as monsoon depressions (related to model resolution), and the relationship of each of these with longer-term systematic biases. Analysis of the spatial distribution of rainfall intensity on a range of timescales ranging from ~30 minutes to daily, in the MetUM and in observations (where available), highlights how rainfall biases in the South Asian monsoon region on different timescales in different regions can be achieved in models through a combination of the incorrect frequency and/or intensity of rainfall. Over the Indian land area, the typical dry bias is related to sub-daily rainfall events being too infrequent, despite being too intense when they occur. In contrast, the wet bias regions over the equatorial Indian Ocean are mainly related to too frequent occurrence of lower-than-observed 3-hourly rainfall accumulations which result in too frequent occurrence of higher-than-observed daily rainfall accumulations. This analysis sheds light on the model deficiencies behind the climatological seasonal mean rainfall biases that many models exhibit in this region. Changing physical parameterizations alters this behaviour, with associated adjustments in the climatological rainfall distribution, although the latter is not always improved (Bush et al., 2014). This suggests a more complex interaction between the diabatic heating and the large

Asian Monsoons Observed by the Scatterometers and Complementary Spacebased Sensors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, W. T.; Tang, W.; Xie, X.

1998-01-01

Monsoons are the seasonal changes of winds forced by continent-ocean temperature contrast. Their annual onset, intensity, and retreat vary greatly, and the variation has strong economic impact and may cause severe human suffering.

Dominating Controls for Wetter South Asian Summer Monsoon in the Twenty-First Century

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mei, Rui; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha

This study analyzes a suite of global climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) archives to understand the mechanisms behind a net increase in the South Asian summer monsoon precipitation in response to enhanced radiative forcing during the twenty-first century. An increase in radiative forcing fuels an increase in the atmospheric moisture content through warmer temperatures, which overwhelms the weakening of monsoon circulation and results in an increase of moisture convergence and therefore summer monsoon precipitation over South Asia. Moisture source analysis suggests that both regional (local recycling, the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal)more » and remote (including the south Indian Ocean) sources contribute to the moisture supply for precipitation over South Asia during the summer season that is facilitated by the monsoon dynamics. For regional moisture sources, the effect of excessive atmospheric moisture is offset by weaker monsoon circulation and uncertainty in the response of the evapotranspiration over land, so anomalies in their contribution to the total moisture supply are either mixed or muted. In contrast, weakening of the monsoon dynamics has less influence on the moisture supply from remote sources that not only is a dominant moisture contributor in the historical period but is also the net driver of the positive summer monsoon precipitation response in the twenty-first century. Finally, the results also indicate that historic measures of the monsoon dynamics may not be well suited to predict the nonstationary moisture-driven South Asian summer monsoon precipitation response in the twenty-first century.« less

Dominating Controls for Wetter South Asian Summer Monsoon in the Twenty-First Century

DOE PAGES

Mei, Rui; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha; ...

2015-04-07

This study analyzes a suite of global climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) archives to understand the mechanisms behind a net increase in the South Asian summer monsoon precipitation in response to enhanced radiative forcing during the twenty-first century. An increase in radiative forcing fuels an increase in the atmospheric moisture content through warmer temperatures, which overwhelms the weakening of monsoon circulation and results in an increase of moisture convergence and therefore summer monsoon precipitation over South Asia. Moisture source analysis suggests that both regional (local recycling, the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal)more » and remote (including the south Indian Ocean) sources contribute to the moisture supply for precipitation over South Asia during the summer season that is facilitated by the monsoon dynamics. For regional moisture sources, the effect of excessive atmospheric moisture is offset by weaker monsoon circulation and uncertainty in the response of the evapotranspiration over land, so anomalies in their contribution to the total moisture supply are either mixed or muted. In contrast, weakening of the monsoon dynamics has less influence on the moisture supply from remote sources that not only is a dominant moisture contributor in the historical period but is also the net driver of the positive summer monsoon precipitation response in the twenty-first century. Finally, the results also indicate that historic measures of the monsoon dynamics may not be well suited to predict the nonstationary moisture-driven South Asian summer monsoon precipitation response in the twenty-first century.« less

Asian Monsoons: Variability, Predictability, and Sensitivity to External Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Song; Lau, K.-M.

1999-01-01

In this study, we have addressed the interannual variations of Asian monsoons including both broad-scale and regional monsoon components. Particular attention is devoted to the identities of the South China Sea monsoon and Indian monsoon. We use CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation and NCEP reanalyses to define regional monsoon indices and to depict the various monsoons. Parallel modeling studies have also been carried out to assess the role of boundary forcing and the potential predictability of the monsoons. Each monsoon is characterized by its unique features. While the South Asian monsoon represents a classical monsoon in which anomalous circulation is governed by Rossby-wave dynamics, the Southeast Asian monsoon symbolizes a "hybrid" monsoon that features multi-cellular meridional circulation over eastern Asia. The broad-scale Asian monsoon links to the basin-wide atmospheric circulation over the Indian-Pacific oceans. Both SST and land surface processes are important for determining the variations of all monsoons. For the broad-scale monsoon, SST anomalies are more important than land surface processes. For regional monsoons, however, land surface processes may become equally important. Both observation and model shows that the broad-scale monsoon is potentially more predictable than regional monsoons, and that the Southeast Asian monsoon may possess higher predictability than the South Asian monsoon.

Model Interpretation of Climate Signals: Application to the Asian Monsoon Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.

2002-01-01

This is an invited review paper intended to be published as a Chapter in a book entitled "The Global Climate System: Patterns, Processes and Teleconnections" Cambridge University Press. The author begins with an introduction followed by a primer of climate models, including a description of various modeling strategies and methodologies used for climate diagnostics and predictability studies. Results from the CLIVAR Monsoon Model Intercomparison Project (MMIP) were used to illustrate the application of the strategies to modeling the Asian monsoon. It is shown that state-of-the art atmospheric GCMs have reasonable capability in simulating the seasonal mean large scale monsoon circulation, and response to El Nino. However, most models fail to capture the climatological as well as interannual anomalies of regional scale features of the Asian monsoon. These include in general over-estimating the intensity and/or misplacing the locations of the monsoon convection over the Bay of Bengal, and the zones of heavy rainfall near steep topography of the Indian subcontinent, Indonesia, and Indo-China and the Philippines. The intensity of convection in the equatorial Indian Ocean is generally weaker in models compared to observations. Most important, an endemic problem in all models is the weakness and the lack of definition of the Mei-yu rainbelt of the East Asia, in particular the part of the Mei-yu rainbelt over the East China Sea and southern Japan are under-represented. All models seem to possess certain amount of intraseasonal variability, but the monsoon transitions, such as the onset and breaks are less defined compared with the observed. Evidences are provided that a better simulation of the annual cycle and intraseasonal variability is a pre-requisite for better simulation and better prediction of interannual anomalies.

Indian Monsoon Depression: Climatology and Variability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yoon, Jin-Ho; Huang, Wan-Ru

The monsoon climate is traditionally characterized by large seasonal rainfall and reversal of wind direction (e.g., Krishnamurti 1979). Most importantly this rainfall is the major source of fresh water to various human activities such as agriculture. The Indian subcontinent resides at the core of the Southeast Asian summer monsoon system, with the monsoon trough extended from northern India across Indochina to the Western Tropical Pacific (WTP). Large fraction of annual rainfall occurs during the summer monsoon season, i.e., June - August with two distinct maxima. One is located over the Bay of Bengal with rainfall extending northwestward into eastern andmore » central India, and the other along the west coast of India where the lower level moist wind meets the Western Ghat Mountains (Saha and Bavardeckar 1976). The rest of the Indian subcontinent receives relatively less rainfall. Various weather systems such as tropical cyclones and weak disturbances contribute to monsoon rainfall (Ramage 1971). Among these systems, the most efficient rain-producing system is known as the Indian monsoon depression (hereafter MD). This MD is critical for monsoon rainfall because: (i) it occurs about six times during each summer monsoon season, (ii) it propagates deeply into the continent and produces large amounts of rainfall along its track, and (iii) about half of the monsoon rainfall is contributed to by the MDs (e.g., Krishnamurti 1979). Therefore, understanding various properties of the MD is a key towards comprehending the veracity of the Indian summer monsoon and especially its hydrological process.« less

Trends of rainfall regime in Peninsular Malaysia during northeast and southwest monsoons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chooi Tan, Kok

2018-04-01

The trends of rainfall regime in Peninsular Malaysia is mainly affected by the seasonal monsoon. The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of northeast and southwest monsoons on the monthly rainfall patterns over Badenoch Estate, Kedah. In addition, the synoptic maps of wind vector also being developed to identify the wind pattern over Peninsular Malaysia from 2007 – 2016. On the other hand, the archived daily rainfall data is acquired from Malaysian Meteorological Department. The temporal and trends of the monthly and annual rainfall over the study area have been analysed from 2007 to 2016. Overall, the average annual precipitation over the study area from 2007 to 2016 recorded by rain gauge is 2562.35 mm per year.

The relationship between Arabian Sea upwelling and Indian Monsoon revisited in a high resolution ocean simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, Xing; Hünicke, Birgit; Tim, Nele; Zorita, Eduardo

2018-01-01

Studies based on sediment records, sea-surface temperature and wind suggest that upwelling along the western coast of Arabian Sea is strongly affected by the Indian summer Monsoon. We examine this relationship directly in an eddy-resolving global ocean simulation STORM driven by atmospheric reanalysis over the last 61 years. With its very high spatial resolution (10 km), STORM allows us to identify characteristics of the upwelling system. We analyse the co-variability between upwelling and meteorological and oceanic variables from 1950 to 2010. The analysis reveals high interannual correlations between coastal upwelling and along-shore wind-stress (r = 0.73) as well as with sea-surface temperature (r = -0.83). However, the correlation between the upwelling and the Monsoon is small. We find an atmospheric circulation pattern different from the one that drives the Monsoon as the main modulator of the upwelling variability. In spite of this, the patterns of temperature anomalies that are either linked to Arabian Sea upwelling or to the Monsoon are spatially quite similar, although the physical mechanisms of these links are different. In addition, no long-term trend is detected in our modelled upwelling in the Arabian Sea.

Future projection of Indian summer monsoon variability under climate change scenario: An assessment from CMIP5 climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharmila, S.; Joseph, S.; Sahai, A. K.; Abhilash, S.; Chattopadhyay, R.

2015-01-01

In this study, the impact of enhanced anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on the possible future changes in different aspects of daily-to-interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is systematically assessed using 20 coupled models participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5. The historical (1951-1999) and future (2051-2099) simulations under the strongest Representative Concentration Pathway have been analyzed for this purpose. A few reliable models are selected based on their competence in simulating the basic features of present-climate ISM variability. The robust and consistent projections across the selected models suggest substantial changes in the ISM variability by the end of 21st century indicating strong sensitivity of ISM to global warming. On the seasonal scale, the all-India summer monsoon mean rainfall is likely to increase moderately in future, primarily governed by enhanced thermodynamic conditions due to atmospheric warming, but slightly offset by weakened large scale monsoon circulation. It is projected that the rainfall magnitude will increase over core monsoon zone in future climate, along with lengthening of the season due to late withdrawal. On interannual timescales, it is speculated that severity and frequency of both strong monsoon (SM) and weak monsoon (WM) might increase noticeably in future climate. Substantial changes in the daily variability of ISM are also projected, which are largely associated with the increase in heavy rainfall events and decrease in both low rain-rate and number of wet days during future monsoon. On the subseasonal scale, the model projections depict considerable amplification of higher frequency (below 30 day mode) components; although the dominant northward propagating 30-70 day mode of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations may not change appreciably in a warmer climate. It is speculated that the enhanced high frequency mode of monsoon ISOs due to increased GHG induced warming

Bacterioplankton activity in the surface waters of the Arabian Sea during and after the 1994 SW monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pomroy, Alan; Joint, Ian

1999-03-01

Bacterial biomass and production were measured on two cruises to the northwestern Arabian Sea in 1994; the first cruise took place towards the end of the SW monsoon in September, and the second cruise during the inter-monsoon period in November and December. Although phytoplankton production was significantly higher during the monsoon, bacterial numbers showed little difference. Bacteria were most abundant in the euphotic zone and highest bacterial numbers were measured during the monsoon period in the Gulf of Oman and the shelf waters off southern Oman; in these regions, numbers ranged from 0.9 to 1.6×10 9 bacteria l -1. On both cruises, bacteria were less abundant in the euphotic zone of the central Arabian Sea and typically ca 0.8×10 9 cells l -1 were present. The majority of bacteria (80-95%) were small cocci that were larger (median diameter 0.40 μm) during the monsoon period than the inter-monsoon, when the cells had a diameter of 0.36 μm; there was no comparable change in cell dimensions of bacteria present as rods. Bacterial production was measured by the incorporation of 3H-thymidine and 3H-leucine. On both cruises, uptake rates were highest on the Omani shelf and decreased offshore. In the central Arabian Sea, thymidine incorporation rates were similar in the monsoon and inter-monsoon periods, but higher rates of leucine incorporation were measured during the monsoon period. Bacterial production was a relatively small proportion of phytoplankton production in both periods sampled; bacterial production was equivalent to between 10 and 30% of the daily primary production in the Arabian Sea.

Influence of large-scale climate modes on dynamical complexity patterns of Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papadimitriou, Constantinos; Donner, Reik V.; Stolbova, Veronika; Balasis, Georgios; Kurths, Jürgen

2015-04-01

Indian Summer monsoon is one of the most anticipated and important weather events with vast environmental, economical and social effects. Predictability of the Indian Summer Monsoon strength is crucial question for life and prosperity of the Indian population. In this study, we are attempting to uncover the relationship between the spatial complexity of Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall patterns, and the monsoon strength, in an effort to qualitatively determine how spatial organization of the rainfall patterns differs between strong and weak instances of the Indian Summer Monsoon. Here, we use observational satellite data from 1998 to 2012 from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM 3B42V7) and reanalysis gridded daily rainfall data for a time period of 57 years (1951-2007) (Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards the Evaluation of Water Resources, APHRODITE). In order to capture different aspects of the system's dynamics, first, we convert rainfall time series to binary symbolic sequences, exploring various thresholding criteria. Second, we apply the Shannon entropy formulation (in a block-entropy sense) using different measures of normalization of the resulting entropy values. Finally, we examine the effect of various large-scale climate modes such as El-Niño-Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Indian Ocean Dipole, on the emerging complexity patterns, and discuss the possibility for the utilization of such pattern maps in the forecasting of the spatial variability and strength of the Indian Summer Monsoon.

An Assessment of the Impact of the 1997-98 El Nino on the Asian-Australian Monsoon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K.-M.; Wu, H.-T.

1999-01-01

Using state-of-the-art satellite-gauge monthly rainfall estimate and optimally interpolated sea surface temperature (SST) data, we have assessed the 1997-98 AA-monsoon anomalies in terms of three basic causal factors: basin-scale SST, regional coupling, and internal variability. Singular Value Decomposition analyses of rainfall and SST are carried out globally over the entire tropics and regionally over the AA-monsoon domain. Contributions to monsoon rainfall predictability by various factors are evaluated from cumulative anomaly correlation with dominant regional SVD modes. Results reveal a dominant, large-scale monsoon-El Nino coupled mode with well-defined centers of action in the near-equatorial monsoon regions during the boreal summer and winter respectively. The observed 1997-98 AA-monsoon anomalies are found to be very complex with approximately 34% of the anomalies of the Asian (boreal) summer monsoon and 74% of the Australia (austral) monsoon attributable to basin-scale SST influence associated with El Nino. Regional coupled processes contribute an additional 19% and 10%, leaving about 47% and 16% due to internal dynamics for the boreal and austral monsoon respectively. For the boreal summer monsoon, it is noted that the highest monsoon predictability is not necessary associated with major El Nino events (e.g. 1997, 1982) but rather in non-El Nino years (e.g. 1980, 1988) when contributions from the regional coupled modes far exceed those from the basin-scale SST. The results suggest that in order to improve monsoon seasonal-to-interannual predictability, there is a need to exploit not only monsoon-El Nino relationship, but also intrinsic monsoon regional coupled processes.

Indian Monsoon Rainfall Variability During the Common Era: Implications on the Ancient Civilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pothuri, D.

2017-12-01

Indian monsoon rainfall variability was reconstructed during last two millennia by using the δ18Ow from a sediment core in the Krishna-Godavari Basin. Higher δ18Ow values during Dark Age Cold Period (DACP) (1550 to 1250 years BP) and Little Ice Age (LIA) (700 to 200 years BP) represent less Indian monsoon rainfall. Whereas during Medieval Warm Period (MWP) (1200 to 800 years BP) and major portion of Roman Warm Period (RWP) 2000 to 1550 years BP) document more rainfall in the Indian subcontinent as evident from lower δ18Ow values. A significant correlation exist between the Bay of Bengal (BoB) sea surface temperature (SST) and Indian monsoon proxy (i.e. δ18Ow), which suggests that; (i) the forcing mechanism of the Indian monsoon rainfall variability during last two millennia was controlled by the thermal contrast between the Indian Ocean and Asian Land Mass, and (ii) the evaporation processes in the BoB and associated SST are strongly coupled with the Indian Monsoon variability over the last two millennia.

On the shortening of Indian summer monsoon season in a warming scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabeerali, C. T.; Ajayamohan, R. S.

2018-03-01

Assessing the future projections of the length of rainy season (LRS) has paramount societal impact considering its potential to alter the seasonal mean rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. Here, we explored the projections of LRS using both historical and Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase5 (CMIP5). RCP8.5 simulations project shortening of the LRS of Indian summer monsoon by altering the timing of onset and withdrawal dates. Most CMIP5 RCP8.5 model simulations indicate a faster warming rate over the western tropical Indian Ocean compared to other regions of the Indian Ocean. It is found that the pronounced western Indian Ocean warming and associated increase in convection results in warmer upper troposphere over the Indian Ocean compared to the Indian subcontinent, reducing the meridional gradient in upper tropospheric temperature (UTT) over the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) domain. The weakening of the meridional gradient in UTT induces weakening of easterly vertical wind shear over the ASM domain during first and last phase of monsoon, facilitate delayed (advanced) monsoon onset (withdrawal) dates, ensues the shortening of LRS of the Indian summer monsoon in a warming scenario.

The Role of Monsoon-Like Zonally Asymmetric Heating in Interhemispheric Transport

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Gang; Orbe, Clara; Waugh, Darryn

2017-01-01

While the importance of the seasonal migration of the zonally averaged Hadley circulation on interhemispheric transport of trace gases has been recognized, few studies have examined the role of the zonally asymmetric monsoonal circulation. This study investigates the role of monsoon-like zonally asymmetric heating on interhemispheric transport using a dry atmospheric model that is forced by idealized Newtonian relaxation to a prescribed radiative equilibrium temperature. When only the seasonal cycle of zonally symmetric heating is considered, the mean age of air in the Southern Hemisphere since last contact with the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude boundary layer, is much larger than the observations. The introduction of monsoon-like zonally asymmetric heating not only reduces the mean age of tropospheric air to more realistic values, but also produces an upper-tropospheric cross-equatorial transport pathway in boreal summer that resembles the transport pathway simulated in the NASA Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) Chemistry Transport Model driven with MERRA meteorological fields. These results highlight the monsoon-induced eddy circulation plays an important role in the interhemispheric transport of long-lived chemical constituents.

High-resolution daily gridded datasets of air temperature and wind speed for Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brinckmann, S.; Krähenmann, S.; Bissolli, P.

2015-08-01

New high-resolution datasets for near surface daily air temperature (minimum, maximum and mean) and daily mean wind speed for Europe (the CORDEX domain) are provided for the period 2001-2010 for the purpose of regional model validation in the framework of DecReg, a sub-project of the German MiKlip project, which aims to develop decadal climate predictions. The main input data sources are hourly SYNOP observations, partly supplemented by station data from the ECA&D dataset (http://www.ecad.eu). These data are quality tested to eliminate erroneous data and various kinds of inhomogeneities. Grids in a resolution of 0.044° (5 km) are derived by spatial interpolation of these station data into the CORDEX area. For temperature interpolation a modified version of a regression kriging method developed by Krähenmann et al. (2011) is used. At first, predictor fields of altitude, continentality and zonal mean temperature are chosen for a regression applied to monthly station data. The residuals of the monthly regression and the deviations of the daily data from the monthly averages are interpolated using simple kriging in a second and third step. For wind speed a new method based on the concept used for temperature was developed, involving predictor fields of exposure, roughness length, coastal distance and ERA Interim reanalysis wind speed at 850 hPa. Interpolation uncertainty is estimated by means of the kriging variance and regression uncertainties. Furthermore, to assess the quality of the final daily grid data, cross validation is performed. Explained variance ranges from 70 to 90 % for monthly temperature and from 50 to 60 % for monthly wind speed. The resulting RMSE for the final daily grid data amounts to 1-2 °C and 1-1.5 m s-1 (depending on season and parameter) for daily temperature parameters and daily mean wind speed, respectively. The datasets presented in this article are published at http://dx.doi.org/10.5676/DWD_CDC/DECREG0110v1.

Influence of climate on malaria transmission depends on daily temperature variation.

PubMed

Paaijmans, Krijn P; Blanford, Simon; Bell, Andrew S; Blanford, Justine I; Read, Andrew F; Thomas, Matthew B

2010-08-24

Malaria transmission is strongly influenced by environmental temperature, but the biological drivers remain poorly quantified. Most studies analyzing malaria-temperature relations, including those investigating malaria risk and the possible impacts of climate change, are based solely on mean temperatures and extrapolate from functions determined under unrealistic laboratory conditions. Here, we present empirical evidence to show that, in addition to mean temperatures, daily fluctuations in temperature affect parasite infection, the rate of parasite development, and the essential elements of mosquito biology that combine to determine malaria transmission intensity. In general, we find that, compared with rates at equivalent constant mean temperatures, temperature fluctuation around low mean temperatures acts to speed up rate processes, whereas fluctuation around high mean temperatures acts to slow processes down. At the extremes (conditions representative of the fringes of malaria transmission, where range expansions or contractions will occur), fluctuation makes transmission possible at lower mean temperatures than currently predicted and can potentially block transmission at higher mean temperatures. If we are to optimize control efforts and develop appropriate adaptation or mitigation strategies for future climates, we need to incorporate into predictive models the effects of daily temperature variation and how that variation is altered by climate change.

Latitudinal variation in summer monsoon rainfall over Western Ghat of India and its association with global sea surface temperatures.

PubMed

Revadekar, J V; Varikoden, Hamza; Murumkar, P K; Ahmed, S A

2018-02-01

The Western Ghats (WG) of India are basically north-south oriented mountains having narrow zonal width with a steep rising western face. The summer monsoon winds during June to September passing over the Arabian Sea are obstructed by the WG and thus orographically uplift to produce moderate-to-heavy precipitation over the region. However, it is seen that characteristic features of rainfall distribution during the season vary from north to south. Also its correlation with all-India summer monsoon rainfall increases from south to north. In the present study, an attempt is also made to examine long-term as well as short-term trends and variability in summer monsoon rainfall over different subdivisions of WG using monthly rainfall data for the period 1871-2014. Konkan & Goa and Coastal Karnataka show increase in rainfall from 1871 to 2014 in all individual summer monsoon months. Short-term trend analysis based on 31-year sliding window indicates that the trends are not monotonous, but has epochal behavior. In recent epoch, magnitudes of negative trends are consistently decreasing and have changed its sign to positive during 1985-2014. It has been observed that Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) plays a dominant positive role in rainfall over entire WG in all summer monsoon months, whereas role of Nino regions are asymmetric over WG rainfall. Indian summer monsoon is known for its negative relationship with Nino SST. Negative correlations are also seen for WG rainfall with Nino regions but only during onset and withdrawal phase. During peak monsoon months July and August subdivisions of WG mostly show positive correlation with Nino SST. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling daily water temperature from air temperature for the Missouri River.

PubMed

Zhu, Senlin; Nyarko, Emmanuel Karlo; Hadzima-Nyarko, Marijana

2018-01-01

The bio-chemical and physical characteristics of a river are directly affected by water temperature, which thereby affects the overall health of aquatic ecosystems. It is a complex problem to accurately estimate water temperature. Modelling of river water temperature is usually based on a suitable mathematical model and field measurements of various atmospheric factors. In this article, the air-water temperature relationship of the Missouri River is investigated by developing three different machine learning models (Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), and Bootstrap Aggregated Decision Trees (BA-DT)). Standard models (linear regression, non-linear regression, and stochastic models) are also developed and compared to machine learning models. Analyzing the three standard models, the stochastic model clearly outperforms the standard linear model and nonlinear model. All the three machine learning models have comparable results and outperform the stochastic model, with GPR having slightly better results for stations No. 2 and 3, while BA-DT has slightly better results for station No. 1. The machine learning models are very effective tools which can be used for the prediction of daily river temperature.

Asian Monsoon Variability from the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA) and Links to Indo-Pacific Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ummenhofer, Caroline; D'Arrigo, Rosanne; Anchukaitis, Kevin; Hernandez, Manuel; Buckley, Brendan; Cook, Edward

2014-05-01

Drought patterns across monsoon and temperate Asia over the period 1877-2005 are linked to Indo-Pacific climate variability associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Using the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA) composed of a high-resolution network of hydroclimatically sensitive tree-ring records with a focus on the June-August months, spatial drought patterns during El Niño and IOD events are assessed as to their agreement with an instrumental drought index and consistency in the drought response amongst ENSO/IOD events. Spatial characteristics in drought patterns are related to regional climate anomalies over the Indo-Pacific basin, using reanalysis products, including changes in the Asian monsoon systems, zonal Walker circulation, moisture fluxes, and precipitation. A weakening of the monsoon circulation over the Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia during El Niño events, along with anomalous subsidence over monsoon Asia and reduced moisture flux, is reflected in anomalous drought conditions over India, Southeast Asia and Indonesia. When an IOD event co-occurs with an El Niño, severe drought conditions identified in the MADA for Southeast Asia, Indonesia, eastern China and central Asia are associated with a weakened South Asian monsoon, reduced moisture flux over China, and anomalous divergent flow and subsidence over Indonesia. Variations in the strength of the South Asian monsoon can also be linked to the Strange Parallels Drought (1756-1768) affecting much of Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent in the mid-18th Century. Large-scale climate anomalies across the wider region during years with an anomalously strengthened/weakened South Asian monsoon are discussed with implications for severe droughts prior to the instrumental period. Insights into the relative influences of Pacific and Indian Ocean variability for Asian monsoon climate on interannual to decadal and longer timescales, as recorded in the

Inter-linkages of SE Asian, Indian and Indonesian-Australian monsoonal subsystems on orbital and suborbital timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holbourn, A. E.; Kuhnt, W.; Tada, R.; Murray, R. W.; Alvarez Zarikian, C. A.; Clemens, S. C.

2014-12-01

The SE Asian, Indian and Indonesian-Australian monsoonal subsystems are closely inter-linked, but show substantial differences in the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation, mainly due to contrasting land-sea distribution and high latitude control. We explore changes in these subsystems in relation to high latitude climate variability on suborbital and orbital timescales, focusing on the last deglaciation and the long-term Miocene evolution. Our main proxies are δ18O and Mg/Ca based salinity and temperature reconstructions in combination with sedimentary and geochemical runoff signatures. Key issues are the synchroneity of monsoonal precipitation changes in relation to northern and southern hemisphere insolation and the response of individual subsystems to atmospheric CO2 and global ice volume variations. In contrast to northern hemisphere monsoonal records, the deglacial intensification of the Australian summer monsoon paralleled southern hemisphere climate evolution. We hypothesize that intensification of the summer heat low over the Australian continent through enhanced greenhouse forcing accentuated the southward pull of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Additional forcing mechanisms including the variability of the Walker circulation and Indian Ocean Dipole, the heat and moisture transfer from the tropical Indian Ocean and deglacial sea-level changes remain highly debated. High-resolution Miocene records from the South China Sea (ODP Site 1146) indicate that the latitudinal displacement of the ITCZ also impacted the long-term development of the SE Asian summer monsoon. Antarctic ice growth episodes at 14.6, 14.2, 13.9, and 13.1 Ma coincided with surface warming and freshening, implying high sensitivity of tropical rain belts to the inter-hemispheric temperature gradient. However, comparable records of the long-term evolution of the Indian and Indonesian-Australian monsoonal subsystems that would allow testing of this hypothesis are still

Improved prediction of severe thunderstorms over the Indian Monsoon region using high-resolution soil moisture and temperature initialization

PubMed Central

Osuri, K. K.; Nadimpalli, R.; Mohanty, U. C.; Chen, F.; Rajeevan, M.; Niyogi, D.

2017-01-01

The hypothesis that realistic land conditions such as soil moisture/soil temperature (SM/ST) can significantly improve the modeling of mesoscale deep convection is tested over the Indian monsoon region (IMR). A high resolution (3 km foot print) SM/ST dataset prepared from a land data assimilation system, as part of a national monsoon mission project, showed close agreement with observations. Experiments are conducted with (LDAS) and without (CNTL) initialization of SM/ST dataset. Results highlight the significance of realistic land surface conditions on numerical prediction of initiation, movement and timing of severe thunderstorms as compared to that currently being initialized by climatological fields in CNTL run. Realistic land conditions improved mass flux, convective updrafts and diabatic heating in the boundary layer that contributed to low level positive potential vorticity. The LDAS run reproduced reflectivity echoes and associated rainfall bands more efficiently. Improper representation of surface conditions in CNTL run limit the evolution boundary layer processes and thereby failed to simulate convection at right time and place. These findings thus provide strong support to the role land conditions play in impacting the deep convection over the IMR. These findings also have direct implications for improving heavy rain forecasting over the IMR, by developing realistic land conditions. PMID:28128293

GCM Simulation of the Large-Scale North American Monsoon Including Water Vapor Tracer Diagnostics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bosilovich, Michael G.; Walker, Gregory; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Sud, Yogesh; Atlas, Robert M. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The geographic sources of water for the large scale North American monsoon in a GCM (General Circulation Model) are diagnosed using passive constituent tracers of regional water sources (Water Vapor Tracers, WVT). The NASA Data Assimilation Office Finite Volume (FV) GCM was used to produce a 10-year simulation (1984 through 1993) including observed sea surface temperature. Regional and global WVT sources were defined to delineate the surface origin of water for precipitation in and around the North American Monsoon. The evolution of the mean annual cycle and the interannual variations of the monsoonal circulation will be discussed. Of special concern are the relative contributions of the local source (precipitation recycling) and remote sources of water vapor to the annual cycle and the interannual variation of monsoonal precipitation. The relationships between soil water, surface evaporation, precipitation and precipitation recycling will be evaluated.

Changes of the time-varying percentiles of daily extreme temperature in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Bin; Chen, Fang; Xu, Feng; Wang, Xinrui

2017-11-01

Identifying the air temperature frequency distributions and evaluating the trends in time-varying percentiles are very important for climate change studies. In order to get a better understanding of the recent temporal and spatial pattern of the temperature changes in China, we have calculated the trends in temporal-varying percentiles of the daily extreme air temperature firstly. Then we divide all the stations to get the spatial patterns for the percentile trends using the average linkage cluster analysis method. To make a comparison, the shifts of trends percentile frequency distribution from 1961-1985 to 1986-2010 are also examined. Important results in three aspects have been achieved: (1) In terms of the trends in temporal-varying percentiles of the daily extreme air temperature, the most intense warming for daily maximum air temperature (Tmax) was detected in the upper percentiles with a significant increasing tendency magnitude (>2.5 °C/50year), and the greatest warming for daily minimum air temperature (Tmin) occurred with very strong trends exceeding 4 °C/50year. (2) The relative coherent spatial patterns for the percentile trends were found, and stations for the whole country had been divided into three clusters. The three primary clusters were distributed regularly to some extent from north to south, indicating the possible large influence of the latitude. (3) The most significant shifts of trends percentile frequency distribution from 1961-1985 to 1986-2010 was found in Tmax. More than half part of the frequency distribution show negative trends less than -0.5 °C/50year in 1961-1985, while showing trends less than 2.5 °C/50year in 1986-2010.

Dominating Controls for Wetter South Asian Summer Monsoon in the Twenty-First Century

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mei, Rui; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha

We analyze a suite of Global Climate Models from the 5th Phase of Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) archives to understand the mechanisms behind a net increase in the South Asian summer monsoon precipitation in response to enhanced radiative forcing during the 21st century despite a robust weakening of dynamics governing the monsoon circulation. Combining the future changes in the contributions from various sources, which contribute to the moisture supply over South Asia, with those in monsoon dynamics and atmospheric moisture content, we establish a pathway of understanding that partly explains these counteracting responses to increase in radiative forcing. Ourmore » analysis suggests that both regional (local recycling, Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal) and remote (mainly Indian Ocean) sources contribute to the moisture supply for precipitation over South Asia during the summer season that is facilitated by the monsoon dynamics. Increase in radiative forcing fuels an increase in the atmospheric moisture content through warmer temperatures. For regional moisture sources, the effect of excessive atmospheric moisture is offset by weaker monsoon circulation and uncertainty in the response of the evapotranspiration over land, so anomalies in their contribution to the total moisture supply are either mixed or muted. In contrast, weakening of the monsoon dynamics has less influence on the moisture supply from remote sources that not only is a dominant moisture contributor in the historical period, but is also the net driver of the positive summer monsoon precipitation response in the 21st century. Our results also indicate that historic measures of the monsoon dynamics may not be well suited to predict the non-stationary moisture driven South Asian summer monsoon precipitation response in the 21st century.« less

Monsoonal upwelling in the western Arabian Sea since the middle Miocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, G.; Zhang, Y.

2017-12-01

The Asian monsoon has long been argued to be a product of the Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau, and simulation experiments have confirmed the key role of the Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau in transforming regional atmospheric and oceanic circulations. However, temporal constraints on the strengthening of the Asian monsoon inferred from foraminifer isotopic and faunal data and terrestrial climatic and ecological records are inconsistent with each other, which has obscured the tectonic-climatic linkage. In particular, discriminating the post-middle Miocene global cooling from the monsoon upwelling cooling is critical, but poorly understood due to the lack of adequate constraints for monsoonal upwelling. Here we present new middle to late Miocene biomarker-based reconstructions of sea-surface temperature (SST) for the western Arabian Sea. Our new SSTs capture a long-term ocean cooling since ca. 14.8 Ma and a major drop in SST in the period 11-10 Ma after which the SSTs reached similar values as the Holocene. The new SST record is consistent with planktonic foraminifer, siliceous biota, and geochemical tracer studies, suggestive of ocean cooling and high productivity associated with monsoonal upwelling. The 11-10 Ma ocean cooling is not clearly expressed in other tropical oceans, indicating that the ocean cooling in the western Arabian Sea is not a simple reflection of global cooling. We interpret the 11-10 Ma ocean cooling as representing the establishment of monsoonal upwelling in the western Arabian Sea, triggered by strong cyclonic activities as a result of the Neogene outward expansion of the Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau.

Increasing persistent haze in Beijing: potential impacts of weakening East Asian winter monsoons associated with northwestern Pacific sea surface temperature trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pei, Lin; Yan, Zhongwei; Sun, Zhaobin; Miao, Shiguang; Yao, Yao

2018-03-01

Over the past decades, Beijing, the capital city of China, has encountered increasingly frequent persistent haze events (PHE). While the increased pollutant emissions are considered as the most important reason, changes in regional atmospheric circulations associated with large-scale climate warming also play a role. In this study, we find a significant positive trend of PHE in Beijing for the winters from 1980 to 2016 based on updated daily observations. This trend is closely related to an increasing frequency of extreme anomalous southerly episodes in North China, a weakened East Asian trough in the mid-troposphere and a northward shift of the East Asian jet stream in the upper troposphere. These conditions together depict a weakened East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) system, which is then found to be associated with an anomalous warm, high-pressure system in the middle-lower troposphere over the northwestern Pacific. A practical EAWM index is defined as the seasonal meridional wind anomaly at 850 hPa in winter over North China. Over the period 1900-2016, this EAWM index is positively correlated with the sea surface temperature anomalies over the northwestern Pacific, which indicates a wavy positive trend, with an enhanced positive phase since the mid-1980s. Our results suggest an observation-based mechanism linking the increase in PHE in Beijing with large-scale climatic warming through changes in the typical regional atmospheric circulation.

Daily Cycle of Air Temperature and Surface Temperature in Stone Forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, K.; Li, Y.; Wang, X.; Yuan, M.

2013-12-01

Urbanization is one of the most profound human activities that impact on climate change. In cities, where are highly artificial areas, the conflict between human activity and natural climate is particularly prominent. Urban areas always have the larger area of impervious land, the higher consumption of greenhouse gases, more emissions of anthropogenic heat and air pollution, all contribute to the urban warming phenomena. Understanding the mechanisms causing a variety of phenomena involved in the urban warming is critical to distinguish the anthropogenic effect and natural variation in the climate change. However, the exact dynamics of urban warming were poorly understood, and effective control strategies are not available. Here we present a study of the daily cycle of air temperature and surface temperature in Stone Forest. The specific heat of the stones in the Stone Forest and concrete of the man-made structures within the cities are approximate. Besides, the height of the Stone Forest and the height of buildings within the city are also similar. As a scenic area, the Stone Forest is being preserved and only opened for sightseeing. There is no anthropogenic heat, as well air pollution within the Stone Forest. The thermal environment in Stone Forest can be considered to be a simulation of thermal environment in the city, which can reveal the effect of man-made structures on urban thermal environment. We conducted the field studies and numerical analysis in the Stone Forest for 4 typical urban morphology and environment scenarios, including high-rise compact cities, low-rise sparse cities, garden cities and isolated single stone. Air temperature and relative humidity were measured every half an hour in 15 different locations, which within different spatial distribution of stones and can represent the four urban scenarios respectively. At the same time, an infrared camera was used to take thermal images and get the hourly surface temperatures of stones and

Interaction of Convective Organization and Monsoon Precipitation, Atmosphere, Surface and Sea (INCOMPASS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, A. G.; Bhat, G. S.; Evans, J. G.; Madan, R.; Marsham, J. H.; Martin, G.; Mitra, A. K.; Mrudula, G.; Parker, D. J.; Pattnaik, S.; Rajagopal, E. N.; Taylor, C.; Tripathi, S. N.

2016-12-01

INCOMPASS will build on a field and aircraft measurement campaign from the 2016 monsoon onset to better understand and predict monsoon rainfall. The monsoon supplies the majority of water in South Asia, however modelling and forecasting the monsoon from days to the season ahead is limited by large model errors that develop quickly. Likely problems lie in physical parametrizations such as convection, the boundary layer and land surface. At the same time, lack of detailed observations prevents more thorough understanding of monsoon circulation and its interaction with the land surface; a process governed by boundary layer and convective cloud dynamics. From May to July 2016, INCOMPASS used a modified BAe-146 jet aircraft operated by the UK Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM), for the first project of this scale in India. The India and UK team flew around 100 hours of science sorties from bases in northern and southern India. Flights from Lucknow in the northern plains took measurements to the west and southeast to allow sampling of the complete contrast from dry desert air to the humid environment over the north Bay of Bengal. These routes were repeated in the pre-monsoon and monsoon phases, measuring contrasting surface and boundary layer structures. In addition, flights from the southern base in Bengaluru measured contrasts from the Arabian Sea, across the intense rains of the Western Ghats mountains, over the rain shadow in southeast India and over the southern Bay of Bengal. Flight planning was performed with the aid of forecasts from a new UK Met Office 4km limited area model. INCOMPASS also installed a network of surface flux towers, as well as operating a cloud-base ceilometer and performing intensive radiosonde launches from a supersite in Kanpur. This presentation will outline preliminary results from the field campaign including new observations of the surface, boundary layer structure and atmospheric profiles together with detailed

Perceptible changes in Indian summer monsoon rainfall in relation to Indian Monsoon Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naidu, C. V.; Dharma Raju, A.; Vinay Kumar, P.; Satyanarayana, G. Ch.

2017-10-01

The changes in the summer monsoon rainfall over 30 meteorological subdivisions of India with respect to changes in circulation and the Indian Monsoon Index (IMI) have been studied for the period 1953-2012. The relationship between the IMIs in different months and whole season and the corresponding summer monsoon rainfall is studied and tested. The positive and negative extremes are evaluated basing on the normalized values of the deviations from the mean of the IMI. Composite rainfall distributions over India and the zonal wind distributions in the lower and upper troposphere of IMI's both positive and negative extremes are evaluated separately and discussed. In the recent three decades of global warming, the negative values of IMI in July and August lead to weakening of the monsoon system over India. It is observed that the rainfall variations in the Northeast India are different from the rest of India except Tamil Nadu in general.

Southern Hemisphere control on Australian monsoon variability during the late deglaciation and Holocene.

PubMed

Kuhnt, Wolfgang; Holbourn, Ann; Xu, Jian; Opdyke, Bradley; De Deckker, Patrick; Röhl, Ursula; Mudelsee, Manfred

2015-01-06

The evolution of the Australian monsoon in relation to high-latitude temperature fluctuations over the last termination remains highly enigmatic. Here we integrate high-resolution riverine runoff and dust proxy data from X-ray fluorescence scanner measurements in four well-dated sediment cores, forming a NE-SW transect across the Timor Sea. Our records reveal that the development of the Australian monsoon closely followed the deglacial warming history of Antarctica. A minimum in riverine runoff documents dry conditions throughout the region during the Antarctic Cold Reversal (15-12.9 ka). Massive intensification of the monsoon coincided with Southern Hemisphere warming and intensified greenhouse forcing over Australia during the atmospheric CO2 rise at 12.9-10 ka. We relate the earlier onset of the monsoon in the Timor Strait (13.4 ka) to regional changes in landmass exposure during deglacial sea-level rise. A return to dryer conditions occurred between 8.1 and 7.3 ka following the early Holocene runoff maximum.

Southern Hemisphere control on Australian monsoon variability during the late deglaciation and Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuhnt, Wolfgang; Holbourn, Ann; Xu, Jian; Opdyke, Bradley; de Deckker, Patrick; Röhl, Ursula; Mudelsee, Manfred

2015-01-01

The evolution of the Australian monsoon in relation to high-latitude temperature fluctuations over the last termination remains highly enigmatic. Here we integrate high-resolution riverine runoff and dust proxy data from X-ray fluorescence scanner measurements in four well-dated sediment cores, forming a NE-SW transect across the Timor Sea. Our records reveal that the development of the Australian monsoon closely followed the deglacial warming history of Antarctica. A minimum in riverine runoff documents dry conditions throughout the region during the Antarctic Cold Reversal (15-12.9 ka). Massive intensification of the monsoon coincided with Southern Hemisphere warming and intensified greenhouse forcing over Australia during the atmospheric CO2 rise at 12.9-10 ka. We relate the earlier onset of the monsoon in the Timor Strait (13.4 ka) to regional changes in landmass exposure during deglacial sea-level rise. A return to dryer conditions occurred between 8.1 and 7.3 ka following the early Holocene runoff maximum.

Orbital pacing and ocean circulation-induced collapses of the Mesoamerican monsoon over the past 22,000 y.

PubMed

Lachniet, Matthew S; Asmerom, Yemane; Bernal, Juan Pablo; Polyak, Victor J; Vazquez-Selem, Lorenzo

2013-06-04

The dominant controls on global paleomonsoon strength include summer insolation driven by precession cycles, ocean circulation through its influence on atmospheric circulation, and sea-surface temperatures. However, few records from the summer North American Monsoon system are available to test for a synchronous response with other global monsoons to shared forcings. In particular, the monsoon response to widespread atmospheric reorganizations associated with disruptions of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the deglacial period remains unconstrained. Here, we present a high-resolution and radiometrically dated monsoon rainfall reconstruction over the past 22,000 y from speleothems of tropical southwestern Mexico. The data document an active Last Glacial Maximum (18-24 cal ka B.P.) monsoon with similar δ(18)O values to the modern, and that the monsoon collapsed during periods of weakened AMOC during Heinrich stadial 1 (ca. 17 ka) and the Younger Dryas (12.9-11.5 ka). The Holocene was marked by a trend to a weaker monsoon that was paced by orbital insolation. We conclude that the Mesoamerican monsoon responded in concert with other global monsoon regions, and that monsoon strength was driven by variations in the strength and latitudinal position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which was forced by AMOC variations in the North Atlantic Ocean. The surprising observation of an active Last Glacial Maximum monsoon is attributed to an active but shallow AMOC and proximity to the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The emergence of agriculture in southwestern Mexico was likely only possible after monsoon strengthening in the Early Holocene at ca. 11 ka.

Orbital pacing and ocean circulation-induced collapses of the Mesoamerican monsoon over the past 22,000 y

PubMed Central

Lachniet, Matthew S.; Asmerom, Yemane; Bernal, Juan Pablo; Polyak, Victor J.; Vazquez-Selem, Lorenzo

2013-01-01

The dominant controls on global paleomonsoon strength include summer insolation driven by precession cycles, ocean circulation through its influence on atmospheric circulation, and sea-surface temperatures. However, few records from the summer North American Monsoon system are available to test for a synchronous response with other global monsoons to shared forcings. In particular, the monsoon response to widespread atmospheric reorganizations associated with disruptions of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the deglacial period remains unconstrained. Here, we present a high-resolution and radiometrically dated monsoon rainfall reconstruction over the past 22,000 y from speleothems of tropical southwestern Mexico. The data document an active Last Glacial Maximum (18–24 cal ka B.P.) monsoon with similar δ18O values to the modern, and that the monsoon collapsed during periods of weakened AMOC during Heinrich stadial 1 (ca. 17 ka) and the Younger Dryas (12.9–11.5 ka). The Holocene was marked by a trend to a weaker monsoon that was paced by orbital insolation. We conclude that the Mesoamerican monsoon responded in concert with other global monsoon regions, and that monsoon strength was driven by variations in the strength and latitudinal position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which was forced by AMOC variations in the North Atlantic Ocean. The surprising observation of an active Last Glacial Maximum monsoon is attributed to an active but shallow AMOC and proximity to the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The emergence of agriculture in southwestern Mexico was likely only possible after monsoon strengthening in the Early Holocene at ca. 11 ka. PMID:23690596

Representation of the West African Monsoon System in the aerosol-climate model ECHAM6-HAM2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanelle, Tanja; Lohmann, Ulrike; Bey, Isabelle

2017-04-01

The West African Monsoon (WAM) is a major component of the global monsoon system. The temperature contrast between the Saharan land surface in the North and the sea surface temperature in the South dominates the WAM formation. The West African region receives most of its precipitation during the monsoon season between end of June and September. Therefore the existence of the monsoon is of major social and economic importance. We discuss the ability of the climate model ECHAM6 as well as the coupled aerosol climate model ECHAM6-HAM2 to simulate the major features of the WAM system. The north-south temperature gradient is reproduced by both model versions but all model versions fail in reproducing the precipitation amount south of 10° N. A special focus is on the representation of the nocturnal low level jet (NLLJ) and the corresponding enhancement of low level clouds (LLC) at the Guinea Coast, which are a crucial factor for the regional energy budget. Most global climate models have difficulties to represent these features. The pure climate model ECHAM6 is able to simulate the existence of the NLLJ and LLC, but the model does not represent the pronounced diurnal cycle. Overall, the representation of LLC is worse in the coupled model. We discuss the model behaviors on the basis of outputted temperature and humidity tendencies and try to identify potential processes responsible for the model deficiencies.

Dune mobility and aridity at the desert margin of northern China at a time of peak monsoon strength

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mason, J.A.; Lu, H.; Zhou, Y.; Miao, X.; Swinehart, J.B.; Liu, Z.; Goble, R.J.; Yi, S.

2009-01-01

Wind-blown sands were mobile at many sites along the desert margin in northern China during the early Holocene (11.5-8 ka ago), based on extensive new numerical dating. This mobility implies low effective moisture at the desert margin, in contrast to growing evidence for greater than modern monsoon precipitation at the same time in central and southern China. Dry conditions in the early Holocene at the desert margin can be explained through a dynamic link between enhanced diabatic heating in the core region of the strengthened monsoon and increased subsidence in drylands to the north, combined with high evapotranspiration rates due to high summer temperatures. After 8 ka ago, as the monsoon weakened and lower temperatures reduced evapotranspiration, eolian sands were stabilized by vegetation. Aridity and dune mobility at the desert margin and a strengthened monsoon can both be explained as responses to high summer insolation in the early Holocene. ?? 2009 Geological Society of America.

Estimation of daily mean air temperature from satellite derived radiometric data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phinney, D.

1976-01-01

The Screwworm Eradication Data System (SEDS) at JSC utilizes satellite derived estimates of daily mean air temperature (DMAT) to monitor the effect of temperature on screwworm populations. The performance of the SEDS screwworm growth potential predictions depends in large part upon the accuracy of the DMAT estimates.

Microbial community dynamics and taxon-specific phytoplankton production in the Arabian Sea during the 1995 monsoon seasons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, S. L.; Landry, M. R.; Christensen, S.; Garrison, D.; Gowing, M. M.; Bidigare, R. R.; Campbell, L.

As part of the US JGOFS Arabian Sea Process Study in 1995, we investigated temporal and spatial patterns in microbial dynamics and production during the late Southwest (SW) Monsoon (August-September 1995) and the early Northeast (NE) Monsoon (November-December 1995) seasons using the seawater-dilution technique. Experiments were coupled with population assessments from high-performance liquid chromatography, flow cytometry, and microscopy to estimate further taxon-specific phytoplankton growth, grazing and production. Dilution estimates of total primary production varied substantially, from 7 to 423 μg C l -1 d -1, and were generally in good agreement with rate estimates from 14C-uptake incubations. Both primary production and secondary bacterial production were, on average, 2.5× higher during the SW Monsoon than the NE Monsoon. Relative to the total community, photosynthetic prokaryotes contributed 23% and 53% of production during the SW and NE Monsoons, respectively. Prochlorococcus spp. production was well balanced by grazing losses, while >50% of Synechococcus spp. production during the SW Monsoon appeared to escape grazing by protists. Diatoms comprised >30% of primary production at a high biomass station during the SW Monsoon but <30% at all stations during the NE Monsoon. Growth rates of Synechococcus spp. and diatoms appeared to be limited by inorganic nitrogen concentrations, while Prochlorococcus spp., dinoflagellates and Phaeocystis spp. were not. Losses to protistan grazing were strongly correlated with phytoplankton biomass and production. Despite sufficient prey levels, protistan biomass was modest and constant across the region during both seasons. Of the larger taxa, diatoms were grazed the least effectively with only 50% of daily production accounted for by protistan grazing. Combined estimates of protistan and mesozooplankton grazing at upwelling stations during the SW Monsoon leave ˜10% of primary production unaccounted for and available for

Response of the North American monsoon to regional changes in ocean surface temperature

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barron, John A.; Metcalfe, Sarah E.; Addison, Jason A.

2012-01-01

The North American monsoon (NAM), an onshore wind shift occurring between July and September, has evolved in character during the Holocene largely due to changes in Northern Hemisphere insolation. Published paleoproxy and modeling studies suggest that prior to ∼8000 cal years BP, the NAM affected a broader region than today, extending westward into the Mojave Desert of California. Holocene proxy SST records from the Gulf of California (GoC) and the adjacent Pacific provide constraints for this changing NAM climatology. Prior to ∼8000 cal years BP, lower GoC SSTs would not have fueled northward surges of tropical moisture up the GoC, which presently contribute most of the monsoon precipitation to the western NAM region. During the early Holocene, the North Pacific High was further north and SSTs in the California Current off Baja California were warmer, allowing monsoonal moisture flow from the subtropical Pacific to take a more direct, northwesterly trajectory into an expanded area of the southwestern U.S. west of 114°W. A new upwelling record off southwest Baja California reveals that enhanced upwelling in the California Current beginning at ∼7500 cal year BP may have triggered a change in NAM climatology, focusing the geographic expression of NAM in the southwest USA into its modern core region east of ∼114°W, in Arizona and New Mexico. Holocene proxy precipitation records from the southwestern U.S. and northwestern Mexico, including lakes, vegetation/pollen, and caves are reviewed and found to be largely supportive of this hypothesis of changing Holocene NAM climatology.

A hemispheric climatology of monsoon depressions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurley, J. V.; Boos, W.

2012-12-01

Monsoon depressions are large (1000-2000 km diameter) cyclonic low pressure systems having organized deep convection, best known for forming in the Bay of Bengal and migrating northwest over northern India in the monsoon trough. About 3 to 5 of these systems occur during each monsoon season, contributing about half of the Indian summer rainfall. Despite their importance as a precipitation source, their dynamics are poorly constrained. Furthermore, although they do occur elsewhere, such as around Australia and in the southern Indian Ocean, there does not exist a collective inventory of these systems outside of the Bay of Bengal region. Here we present a climatology of monsoon depressions produced from the ERA-Interim Reanalysis. Feature tracks are identified using an automated tracking algorithm (K. Hodges' TRACK code) applied to the 850 hPa relative vorticity field for local summer, 1989 to 2003. Using criteria based on relative vorticity and sea level pressure, cyclonic low pressure systems are separated into different intensity categories, one of which corresponds to the definition for monsoon depressions used by the India Meteorological Department. The resultant distribution of storms obtained for the Bay of Bengal region compares well with a previously compiled climatology of monsoon depressions that was limited to the region surrounding India. Having validated our ability to identify monsoon depressions in their classic genesis region near India, we then extend the methods to include the western Pacific, Australia, and the southern Indian Ocean. Track distributions and composite structures of monsoon depressions for these different regions will be presented.

Reducing Noise in the MSU Daily Lower-Tropospheric Global Temperature Dataset

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christy, John R.; Spencer, Roy W.; McNider, Richard T.

1996-01-01

The daily global-mean values of the lower-tropospheric temperature determined from microwave emissions measured by satellites are examined in terms of their signal, noise, and signal-to-noise ratio. Daily and 30-day average noise estimates are reduced by almost 50% and 35%. respectively, by analyzing and adjusting (if necessary) for errors due to 1) missing data, 2) residual harmonics of the annual cycle unique to particular satellites, 3) lack of filtering, and 4) spurious trends. After adjustments, the decadal trend of the lower-tropospheric global temperature from January 1979 through February 1994 becomes -0.058 C. or about 0.03 C per decade cooler than previously calculated.

Reducing Noise in the MSU Daily Lower-Tropospheric Global Temperature Dataset

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christy, John R.; Spencer, Roy W.; McNider, Richard T.

1995-01-01

The daily global-mean values of the lower-tropospheric temperature determined from microwave emissions measured by satellites are examined in terms of their signal, noise, and signal-to-noise ratio. Daily and 30-day average noise estimates are reduced by, almost 50% and 35%, respectively, by analyzing and adjusting (if necessary) for errors due to (1) missing data, (2) residual harmonics of the annual cycle unique to particular satellites, (3) lack of filtering, and (4) spurious trends. After adjustments, the decadal trend of the lower-tropospheric global temperature from January 1979 through February 1994 becomes -0.058 C, or about 0.03 C per decade cooler than previously calculated.

GMMIP (v1.0) contribution to CMIP6: Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Tianjun; Turner, Andrew G.; Kinter, James L.; Wang, Bin; Qian, Yun; Chen, Xiaolong; Wu, Bo; Wang, Bin; Liu, Bo; Zou, Liwei; He, Bian

2016-10-01

The Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project (GMMIP) has been endorsed by the panel of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) as one of the participating model inter-comparison projects (MIPs) in the sixth phase of CMIP (CMIP6). The focus of GMMIP is on monsoon climatology, variability, prediction and projection, which is relevant to four of the "Grand Challenges" proposed by the World Climate Research Programme. At present, 21 international modeling groups are committed to joining GMMIP. This overview paper introduces the motivation behind GMMIP and the scientific questions it intends to answer. Three tiers of experiments, of decreasing priority, are designed to examine (a) model skill in simulating the climatology and interannual-to-multidecadal variability of global monsoons forced by the sea surface temperature during historical climate period; (b) the roles of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in driving variations of the global and regional monsoons; and (c) the effects of large orographic terrain on the establishment of the monsoons. The outputs of the CMIP6 Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima experiments (DECK), "historical" simulation and endorsed MIPs will also be used in the diagnostic analysis of GMMIP to give a comprehensive understanding of the roles played by different external forcings, potential improvements in the simulation of monsoon rainfall at high resolution and reproducibility at decadal timescales. The implementation of GMMIP will improve our understanding of the fundamental physics of changes in the global and regional monsoons over the past 140 years and ultimately benefit monsoons prediction and projection in the current century.

New developments on the homogenization of Canadian daily temperature data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vincent, Lucie A.; Wang, Xiaolan L.

2010-05-01

Long-term and homogenized surface air temperature datasets had been prepared for the analysis of climate trends in Canada (Vincent and Gullett 1999). Non-climatic steps due to instruments relocation/changes and changes in observing procedures were identified in the annual mean of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures using a technique based on regression models (Vincent 1998). Monthly adjustments were derived from the regression models and daily adjustments were obtained from an interpolation procedure using the monthly adjustments (Vincent et al. 2002). Recently, new statistical tests have been developed to improve the power of detecting changepoints in climatological data time series. The penalized maximal t (PMT) test (Wang et al. 2007) and the penalized maximal F (PMF) test (Wang 2008b) were developed to take into account the position of each changepoint in order to minimize the effect of unequal and small sample size. A software package RHtestsV3 (Wang and Feng 2009) has also been developed to implement these tests to homogenize climate data series. A recursive procedure was developed to estimate the annual cycle, linear trend, and lag-1 autocorrelation of the base series in tandem, so that the effect of lag-1 autocorrelation is accounted for in the tests. A Quantile Matching (QM) algorithm (Wang 2009) was also developed for adjusting Gaussian daily data so that the empirical distributions of all segments of the detrended series match each other. The RHtestsV3 package was used to prepare a second generation of homogenized temperatures in Canada. Both the PMT test and the PMF test were applied to detect shifts in monthly mean temperature series. Reference series was used in conducting a PMT test. Whenever possible, the main causes of the shifts were retrieved through historical evidence such as the station inspection reports. Finally, the QM algorithm was used to adjust the daily temperature series for the artificial shifts identified from the respective

Variation in the Asian monsoon intensity and dry-wet condition since the Little Ice Age in central China revealed by an aragonite stalagmite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, J.-J.; Yuan, D.-X.; Li, H.-C.; Cheng, H.; Li, T.-Y.; Edwards, R. L.; Lin, Y.-S.; Qin, J.-M.; Tang, W.; Zhao, Z.-Y.; Mii, H.-S.

2014-04-01

Highlight: this paper focuses on the climate variability in central China since 1300 AD, involving: 1. A well-dated, 1.5 year resolution stalagmite δ18O record from Lianhua Cave, central China; 2. Links of the δ18O record with regional dry-wet condition, monsoon intensity, and temperature over eastern China; 3. Correlations among drought events in the Lianhua record, solar irradiation, and ENSO index. We present a highly precisely 230Th/U dated, 1.5 year resolution δ18O record of an aragonite stalagmite (LHD1) collected from Lianhua Cave in Wuling mountain area of central China. The comparison of the δ18O record with the local instrumental record and historical documents exhibits at least 15 drought events in the Wuling mountain and adjacent areas during the Little Ice Age, in which some of them were corresponding to megadrought events in the broad Asian monsoonal region of China. Thus, the stalagmite δ18O record reveals variations in the summer monsoon precipitation and dry-wet condition in Wuling mountain area. The eastern China temperature varied with the solar activity, showing higher temperature under stronger solar irradiation which produces stronger summer monsoon. During Maunder, Dalton and 1900 sunspot minima, more severe drought events occurred, indicating weakening of the summer monsoon when solar activity decreased on decadal time scales. On interannual time scale, dry conditions in the studying area were prevailing under El Niño condition, which is also supported by the spectrum analysis. Hence, our record illustrates the linkage of Asian summer monsoon precipitation to solar irradiation and ENSO: wetter condition under stronger summer monsoon during warm periods and vice versa; During cold periods, the Walker circulation will shift toward central Pacific under El Niño condition, resulting further weakening of Asian summer monsoon. However, the δ18O of LHD1 record is positively correlated with temperature after ~1940 AD which is opposite to the

Variability in daily, zonal mean lower-stratospheric temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christy, John R.; Drouilhet, S. James, Jr.

1994-01-01

Satellite data from the microwave sounding unit (MSU) channel 4, when carefully merged, provide daily zonal anomalies of lower-stratosphere temperature with a level of precision between 0.01 and 0.08 C per 2.5 deg latitude band. Global averages of these daily zonal anomalies reveal the prominent warming events due to volcanic aerosol in 1982 (El Chichon) and 1991 (Mt. Pinatubo), which are on the order of 1 C. The quasibiennial oscillation (QBO) may be extracted from these zonal data by applying a spatial filter between 15 deg N and 15 deg S latitude, which resembles the meridional curvature. Previously published relationships between the QBO and the north polar stratospheric temperatures during northern winter are examined but were not found to be reproduced in the MSU4 data. Sudden stratospheric warmings in the north polar region are represented in the MSU4 data for latitudes poleward of 70 deg N. In the Southern Hemisphere, there appears to be a moderate relationship between total ozone concentration and MSU4 temperatures, though it has been less apparent in 1991 and 1992. In terms of empirical modes of variability, the authors find a strong tendency in EOF 1 (39.2% of the variance) for anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere polar regions to be counterbalanced by anomalies equatorward of 40 deg N and 40 deg S latitudes. In addition, most of the modes revealed significant power in the 15-20 day period band.

Daily water-temperature records for Utah streams, 1944-68

USGS Publications Warehouse

Whitaker, G.L.

1970-01-01

Temperature is an important and sometimes critical factor for many uses of water. Temperature affects the usefulness of the water for recreation, fish and wildlife propagation, industrial cooling, food processing, and manufacturing. Temperature also affects the ability of the water to accommodate biologic and vegetative types of life.The purpose of this report is to summarize in tabular form the water- temperature data that have been collected by the U.S. Geological Survey on a daily basis for streams in Utah. A few stream sites near the boundaries of Utah in neighboring States have been included. These sites are on streams which either flow out of or into Utah, and they may provide information of value in studies dealing with water quality in the State.

Drying projection over western maritime continent during Southwest and Northeast monsoon seasons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kartika Lestari, R.

2017-04-01

In the maritime continent, the precipitation variability is large and recently, this region experiences longer dry season and more number of severe drought events that are threatening the human life, such as, water supply for daily life and agriculture, and unhealthy air quality due to the increased number of wildfires. Global warming has been known to contribute to the rainfall anomalies around the world, and present study investigate the extent to which the drying conditions are going to be happened in 21st century over western part of the maritime continent (WMC), where the population is much larger than the eastern part, during both active Southwest (SW) and Northeast (NE) monsoon seasons. A future change in the precipitation over WMC is suggested from our analyses of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. In addition to CMIP5, we analyse the downscaled data of nine selected CMIP5 models to examine if there is modification in the drying projection when higher resolution data are used. While the north and south of equator show out of phase in the precipitation change, the region around equator shows decreased precipitation during both the SW monsoon in June-July-August-September (JJAS) and the peak of NE monsoon in February (FEB). The drying projection is robustly shown in FEB when Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shift to the southern hemisphere, but the same robustness is not shown in JJAS when the monsoon over South China Sea is active. The detail results, including the mechanisms and the impacts of tropical climate features (such as, warming Pacific Ocean, monsoon, ITCZ) that drive the drying projection, and the possible reasons causing different degree in the robustness between two seasons, will be shown in the presentation.

Competing influences of greenhouse warming and aerosols on Asian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lau, William Ka-Ming; Kim, Kyu-Myong

2017-05-01

In this paper, we have compared and contrasted competing influences of greenhouse gases (GHG) warming and aerosol forcing on Asian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall based on CMIP5 historical simulations. Under GHG-only forcing, the land warms much faster than the ocean, magnifying the pre-industrial climatological land-ocean thermal contrast and hemispheric asymmetry, i.e., warmer northern than southern hemisphere. A steady increasing warm-ocean-warmer-land (WOWL) trend has been in effect since the 1950's substantially increasing moisture transport from adjacent oceans, and enhancing rainfall over the Asian monsoon regions. However, under GHG warming, increased atmospheric stability due to strong reduction in mid-tropospheric and near surface relative humidity coupled to an expanding subsidence areas, associated with the Deep Tropical Squeeze (DTS, Lau and Kim, 2015b) strongly suppress monsoon convection and rainfall over subtropical and extratropical land, leading to a weakening of the Asian monsoon meridional circulation. Increased anthropogenic aerosol emission strongly masks WOWL, by over 60% over the northern hemisphere, negating to a large extent the rainfall increase due to GHG warming, and leading to a further weakening of the monsoon circulation, through increasing atmospheric stability, most likely associated with aerosol solar dimming and semi-direct effects. Overall, we find that GHG exerts stronger positive rainfall sensitivity, but less negative circulation sensitivity in SASM compared to EASM. In contrast, aerosols exert stronger negative impacts on rainfall, but less negative impacts on circulation in EASM compared to SASM.

The Low-Level Flow Along the Gulf of California During the North American Monsoon.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bordoni, S.; Stevens, B.

2007-05-01

Six-years (1999-2004) of QuikSCAT near-surface ocean winds are used to study the flow over the northeast Pacific and the Gulf of California (GoC) during the North American Monsoon season. The wind data show that the onset of the summer season is accompanied by a reversal of the flow along the GoC, with the establishment of a mean southerly wind throughout the gulf. This reversal occurs in late spring and precedes the onset of the monsoonal rains. In the heart of the monsoon season, the time-mean flow is found to be composed of periods of enhanced southerly winds associated with gulf surges. The role that gulf surges play in modulating the GoC mean southerly flow is further explored by performing an EOF analysis of the summertime daily wind anomalies. A gulf surge mode emerges from this analysis as the leading EOF, with the corresponding principal component time series interpretable as an objective index for gulf surge occurrence. This index is used as a reference time series for regression analysis, to explore the relationship between gulf surges and precipitation over the core and marginal regions of the monsoon, as well as the manifestation of these transient events in the large-scale circulation. It is found that, although seemingly mesoscale features confined over the GoC, gulf surges are intimately linked to patterns of large-scale variability of the eastern Pacific ITCZ and greatly contribute to the definition of the northward extent of the monsoonal rains.

Pre-Service Class Teacher' Ability in Solving Mathematical Problems and Skills in Solving Daily Problems

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aljaberi, Nahil M.; Gheith, Eman

2016-01-01

This study aims to investigate the ability of pre-service class teacher at University of Petrain solving mathematical problems using Polya's Techniques, their level of problem solving skills in daily-life issues. The study also investigates the correlation between their ability to solve mathematical problems and their level of problem solving…

The CEOP Inter-Monsoon Studies (CIMS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.

2003-01-01

Prediction of climate relies on models, and better model prediction depends on good model physics. Improving model physics requires the maximal utilization of climate data of the past, present and future. CEOP provides the first example of a comprehensive, integrated global and regional data set, consisting of globally gridded data, reference site in-situ observations, model location time series (MOLTS), and integrated satellite data for a two-year period covering two complete annual cycles of 2003-2004. The monsoon regions are the most important socio-economically in terms of devastation by floods and droughts, and potential impacts from climate change md fluctuatinns nf the hydrologic cyc!e. Scientifically, it is most challenging, because of complex interactions of atmosphere, land and oceans, local vs. remote forcings in contributing to climate variability and change in the region. Given that many common features, and physical teleconnection exist among different monsoon regions, an international research focus on monsoon must be coordinated and sustained. Current models of the monsoon are grossly inadequate for regional predictions. For improvement, models must be confronted with relevant observations, and model physic developers must be made to be aware of the wealth of information from existing climate data, field measurements, and satellite data that can be used to improve models. Model transferability studles must be conducted. CIMS is a major initiative under CEOP to engage the modeling and the observational communities to join in a coordinated effort to study the monsoons. The objectives of CIMS are (a) To provide a better understanding of fundamental physical processes (diurnal cycle, annual cycle, and intraseasonal oscillations) in monsoon regions around the world and (b) To demonstrate the synergy and utility of CEOP data in providing a pathway for model physics evaluation and improvement. In this talk, I will present the basic concepts of CIMS and the

Spatio-temporal prediction of daily temperatures using time-series of MODIS LST images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hengl, Tomislav; Heuvelink, Gerard B. M.; Perčec Tadić, Melita; Pebesma, Edzer J.

2012-01-01

A computational framework to generate daily temperature maps using time-series of publicly available MODIS MOD11A2 product Land Surface Temperature (LST) images (1 km resolution; 8-day composites) is illustrated using temperature measurements from the national network of meteorological stations (159) in Croatia. The input data set contains 57,282 ground measurements of daily temperature for the year 2008. Temperature was modeled as a function of latitude, longitude, distance from the sea, elevation, time, insolation, and the MODIS LST images. The original rasters were first converted to principal components to reduce noise and filter missing pixels in the LST images. The residual were next analyzed for spatio-temporal auto-correlation; sum-metric separable variograms were fitted to account for zonal and geometric space-time anisotropy. The final predictions were generated for time-slices of a 3D space-time cube, constructed in the R environment for statistical computing. The results show that the space-time regression model can explain a significant part of the variation in station-data (84%). MODIS LST 8-day (cloud-free) images are unbiased estimator of the daily temperature, but with relatively low precision (±4.1°C); however their added value is that they systematically improve detection of local changes in land surface temperature due to local meteorological conditions and/or active heat sources (urban areas, land cover classes). The results of 10-fold cross-validation show that use of spatio-temporal regression-kriging and incorporation of time-series of remote sensing images leads to significantly more accurate maps of temperature than if plain spatial techniques were used. The average (global) accuracy of mapping temperature was ±2.4°C. The regression-kriging explained 91% of variability in daily temperatures, compared to 44% for ordinary kriging. Further software advancement—interactive space-time variogram exploration and automated retrieval

Interannual variability of Indian monsoon rainfall

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paolino, D. A.; Shukla, J.

1984-01-01

The interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon and its relationships with other atmospheric fluctuations were studied in hopes of gaining some insight into the predicability of the rainfall. Rainfall data for 31 meteorological subdivisions over India were provided by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Fifty-three years of seasonal mean anomaly sea-level pressure (SLP) fields were used to determine if any relationships could be detected between fluctuations in Northern Hemisphere surface pressure and Indian monsoon rainfall. Three month running mean sea-level pressure anomalies at Darwin (close to one of the centers of the Southern Oscillation) were compiled for months preceding and following extreme years for rainfall averaged over all of India. Anomalies are small before the monsoon, but are quite large in months following the summer season. However, there is a large decrease in Darwin pressure for months preceding a heavy monsoon, while a deficient monsoon is preceded by a sharp increase in Darwin pressure. If a time series is constructed of the tendency of Darwin SLP between the Northern Hemisphere winter (DJF) and spring (MAM) and a correlation coefficient is computed between it and 81 years of rainfall average over all of India, one gets a C. C. of -.46, which is higher than any other previously computed predictor of the monsoon rainfall. This relationship can also be used to make a qualitative forecast for rainfall over the whole of India by considering the sign of the tendency in extreme monsoon years.

Mineralogical evidence of reduced East Asian summer monsoon rainfall on the Chinese loess plateau during the early Pleistocene interglacials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, Xianqiang; Liu, Lianwen; Wang, Xingchen T.; Balsam, William; Chen, Jun; Ji, Junfeng

2018-03-01

The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is an important component of the global climate system. A better understanding of EASM rainfall variability in the past can help constrain climate models and better predict the response of EASM to ongoing global warming. The warm early Pleistocene, a potential analog of future climate, is an important period to study EASM dynamics. However, existing monsoon proxies for reconstruction of EASM rainfall during the early Pleistocene fail to disentangle monsoon rainfall changes from temperature variations, complicating the comparison of these monsoon records with climate models. Here, we present three 2.6 million-year-long EASM rainfall records from the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) based on carbonate dissolution, a novel proxy for rainfall intensity. These records show that the interglacial rainfall on the CLP was lower during the early Pleistocene and then gradually increased with global cooling during the middle and late Pleistocene. These results are contrary to previous suggestions that a warmer climate leads to higher monsoon rainfall on tectonic timescales. We propose that the lower interglacial EASM rainfall during the early Pleistocene was caused by reduced sea surface temperature gradients across the equatorial Pacific, providing a testable hypothesis for climate models.

The western Pacific monsoon in CMIP5 models: Model evaluation and projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Josephine R.; Colman, Robert A.; Moise, Aurel F.; Smith, Ian N.

2013-11-01

ability of 35 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to simulate the western Pacific (WP) monsoon is evaluated over four representative regions around Timor, New Guinea, the Solomon Islands and Palau. Coupled model simulations are compared with atmosphere-only model simulations (with observed sea surface temperatures, SSTs) to determine the impact of SST biases on model performance. Overall, the CMIP5 models simulate the WP monsoon better than previous-generation Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) models, but some systematic biases remain. The atmosphere-only models are better able to simulate the seasonal cycle of zonal winds than the coupled models, but display comparable biases in the rainfall. The CMIP5 models are able to capture features of interannual variability in response to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. In climate projections under the RCP8.5 scenario, monsoon rainfall is increased over most of the WP monsoon domain, while wind changes are small. Widespread rainfall increases at low latitudes in the summer hemisphere appear robust as a large majority of models agree on the sign of the change. There is less agreement on rainfall changes in winter. Interannual variability of monsoon wet season rainfall is increased in a warmer climate, particularly over Palau, Timor and the Solomon Islands. A subset of the models showing greatest skill in the current climate confirms the overall projections, although showing markedly smaller rainfall increases in the western equatorial Pacific. The changes found here may have large impacts on Pacific island countries influenced by the WP monsoon.

Holocene East Asian Monsoon Variability: Links to Solar and Tropical Pacific Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kandasamy, S.; Chen, C. A.; Lou, J.

2006-12-01

Sedimentary geochemical records from subalpine Retreat Lake, subtropical Taiwan, document the unstable East Asian Monsoon (EAM) climate for the last ~10250 calendar years before the present (cal yr B.P.). The proxy records demonstrate cool, glacial conditions with weak EAM between ~10250 and 8640 cal yr B.P., the strongest EAM during the "Holocene optimum" (8640-4500 cal yr B.P.) with an abrupt, decadal onset of postglacial EAM (8640-8600 cal yr B.P.), and relatively dry conditions since 4500 cal yr B.P. Although after 8600 cal yr B.P., EAM strength reduces gradually in response to the Northern Hemisphere summer insolation, heat and moisture transport and the development of late Holocene El-Niño-Southern Oscillation in the tropical Pacific appear to corroborate the periods of abrupt monsoon changes. Our proxy records reveal several weak monsoon intervals that correlate to low sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Pacific and cold events in the North Atlantic, suggesting a mechanistic link. Among those, four weak EAM events at 8170, 5400, 4500-2100 and 2000-1600 cal yr B.P. are in phase with the timings of low concentrations of atmospheric methane and periods of reduced North Atlantic Deep Water production as well as the `8.2 ka cold spell' and widespread event of low-latitude cultural collapse. Our EAM records exhibit strong correlations with high- and low-latitude climate and monsoon records; thus, provide robust evidences that the centennial-millennial scale monsoon variability during the Holocene are globally-mediated via sun- ocean-monsoon-North Atlantic linkages.

Spatiotemporal variations in the difference between satellite-observed daily maximum land surface temperature and station-based daily maximum near-surface air temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lian, Xu; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Yao, Yitong; Peng, Shushi; Wang, Kaicun; Piao, Shilong

2017-02-01

There is an increasing demand to integrate land surface temperature (LST) into climate research due to its global coverage, which requires a comprehensive knowledge of its distinctive characteristics compared to near-surface air temperature (Tair). Using satellite observations and in situ station-based data sets, we conducted a global-scale assessment of the spatial and seasonal variations in the difference between daily maximum LST and daily maximum Tair (δT, LST - Tair) during 2003-2014. Spatially, LST is generally higher than Tair over arid and sparsely vegetated regions in the middle-low latitudes, but LST is lower than Tair in tropical rainforests due to strong evaporative cooling, and in the high-latitude regions due to snow-induced radiative cooling. Seasonally, δT is negative in tropical regions throughout the year, while it displays a pronounced seasonality in both the midlatitudes and boreal regions. The seasonality in the midlatitudes is a result of the asynchronous responses of LST and Tair to the seasonal cycle of radiation and vegetation abundance, whereas in the boreal regions, seasonality is mainly caused by the change in snow cover. Our study identified substantial spatial heterogeneity and seasonality in δT, as well as its determinant environmental drivers, and thus provides a useful reference for monitoring near-surface air temperature changes using remote sensing, particularly in remote regions.

Indian summer monsoon variability forecasts in the North American multimodel ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Bohar; Cash, Ben; Kinter, James L., III

2018-04-01

The representation of the seasonal mean and interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) in nine global ocean-atmosphere coupled models that participated in the North American Multimodal Ensemble (NMME) phase 1 (NMME:1), and in nine global ocean-atmosphere coupled models participating in the NMME phase 2 (NMME:2) from 1982-2009, is evaluated over the Indo-Pacific domain with May initial conditions. The multi-model ensemble (MME) represents the Indian monsoon rainfall with modest skill and systematic biases. There is no significant improvement in the seasonal forecast skill or interannual variability of ISMR in NMME:2 as compared to NMME:1. The NMME skillfully predicts seasonal mean sea surface temperature (SST) and some of the teleconnections with seasonal mean rainfall. However, the SST-rainfall teleconnections are stronger in the NMME than observed. The NMME is not able to capture the extremes of seasonal mean rainfall and the simulated Indian Ocean-monsoon teleconnections are opposite to what are observed.

Monsoon control on faunal composition of planktic foraminifera in the Arabian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munz, P.; Siccha, M.; Kucera, M.; Schulz, H.

2013-12-01

Being among the most productive open ocean basins, sea surface properties in the Arabian Sea are highly influenced by the seasonal reversal of the monsoonal wind system. During boreal summer wind direction from the southwest induces strong upwelling along the coast off Somalia and Oman. Vertical transport of cold and nutrient-rich deep-water masses by Ekman pumping reduces sea surface temperature and triggers primary productivity. Reversed cold and dry winds during boreal winter lead to cooling of the surface- and subsurface-waters and hereby to deep convective mixing, bringing nutrients into the photic zone and enhancing primary productivity especially in the northern part of the Arabian Sea. Here, we study the influence of the different seasonal monsoon systems on the faunal composition of planktic foraminifera, in order to improve our understanding how the faunal community record is influenced by the respective monsoon systems and to provide baseline information for the reconstruction of ancient monsoon conditions. We used published core-top foraminiferal databases, significantly increased in spatial coverage by new contributions. The resulting combined database consists of 413 core-top samples spanning the Arabian Sea and the Northern Indian Ocean to 10° S. The seasonal sea surface properties at these stations could be binned into categories of different monsoon influence, based on satellite-derived chlorophyll-a concentrations. Interpretation of species response to environmental control is based on multivariate statistical analyses of each of the categorical bins. First results show that samples influenced only by winter- and summer monsoon conditions, respectively, feature specifiable faunal composition. Globigerina bulloides is mostly associated with summer upwelling conditions, whereas Globigerina falconensis and Pulleniatina obliquiloculata are typical species of winter conditions. Redundancy analysis reveals preferences of species populations with

Interdecadal modulation of El Niño teleconnection on monsoon Asia climate over the past five centuries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, J.; Xie, S. P.

2017-12-01

The El Niño influence on monsoon Asia climate weakened during the mid-20th century and strenthened substantially after the late 1970s. Exploring the nature of such an interdecadal variation is constrained by short instrumental records. Here we synthesize the Indo-Pacific tree-rings and coral records to reconstruct monsoon Asia temperature and moisture change during the past five centuries, and show that the interdecadal modulation of El Niño teleconnection on monsoon Asia climate is a robust feature beyond the instrumenal era. Comparison with proxy El Niño records indicates that the El Niño-monsoon Asia climate teleconnection is controlled by interdecadal changes in ENSO variance, with strong (weak) teleconnection in periods of high (low) variance, respectively.

Oceanic link between abrupt changes in the North Atlantic Ocean and the African monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Ping; Zhang, Rong; Hazeleger, Wilco; Wen, Caihong; Wan, Xiuquan; Ji, Link; Haarsma, Reindert J.; Breugem, Wim-Paul; Seidel, Howard

2008-07-01

Abrupt changes in the African monsoon can have pronounced socioeconomic impacts on many West African countries. Evidence for both prolonged humid periods and monsoon failures have been identified throughout the late Pleistocene and early Holocene epochs. In particular, drought conditions in West Africa have occurred during periods of reduced North Atlantic thermohaline circulation, such as the Younger Dryas cold event. Here, we use an ocean-atmosphere general circulation model to examine the link between oceanographic changes in the North Atlantic Ocean and changes in the strength of the African monsoon. Our simulations show that when North Atlantic thermohaline circulation is substantially weakened, the flow of the subsurface North Brazil Current reverses. This leads to decreased upper tropical ocean stratification and warmer sea surface temperatures in the equatorial South Atlantic Ocean, and consequently reduces African summer monsoonal winds and rainfall over West Africa. This mechanism is in agreement with reconstructions of past climate. We therefore suggest that the interaction between thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean and wind-driven currents in the tropical Atlantic Ocean contributes to the rapidity of African monsoon transitions during abrupt climate change events.

An overview of dry-wet climate variability among monsoon-westerly regions and the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Weihong; Ding, Ting; Hu, Haoran; Lin, Xiang; Qin, Aimin

2009-07-01

Climate in mainland China can be divided into the monsoon region in the southeast and the westerly region in the northwest as well as the intercross zone, i.e., the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone that is oriented from Southwest China to the upper Yellow River, North China, and Northeast China. In the three regions, dry-wet climate changes are directly linked to the interaction of the southerly monsoon flow on the east side of the Tibetan Plateau and the westerly flow on the north side of the Plateau from the inter-annual to inter-decadal timescales. Some basic features of climate variability in the three regions for the last half century and the historical hundreds of years are reviewed in this paper. In the last half century, an increasing trend of summer precipitation associated with the enhancing westerly flow is found in the westerly region from Xinjiang to northern parts of North China and Northeast China. On the other hand, an increasing trend of summer precipitation along the Yangtze River and a decreasing trend of summer precipitation along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone are associated with the weakening monsoon flow in East Asia. Historical documents are widely distributed in the monsoon region for hundreds of years and natural climate proxies are constructed in the non-monsoon region, while two types of climate proxies can be commonly found over the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone. In the monsoon region, dry-wet variation centers are altered among North China, the lower Yangtze River, and South China from one century to another. Dry or wet anomalies are firstly observed along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone and shifted southward or southeastward to the Yangtze River valley and South China in about a 70-year timescale. Severe drought events are experienced along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone during the last 5 centuries. Inter-decadal dry-wet variations are depicted by natural proxies for the

GMMIP (v1.0) contribution to CMIP6: Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Tianjun; Turner, Andrew G.; Kinter, James L.

The Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project (GMMIP) has been endorsed by the panel of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) as one of the participating model inter-comparison projects (MIPs) in the sixth phase of CMIP (CMIP6). The focus of GMMIP is on monsoon climatology, variability, prediction and projection, which is relevant to four of the “Grand Challenges” proposed by the World Climate Research Programme. At present, 21 international modeling groups are committed to joining GMMIP. This overview paper introduces the motivation behind GMMIP and the scientific questions it intends to answer. Three tiers of experiments, of decreasing priority, are designed to examinemore » (a) model skill in simulating the climatology and interannual-to-multidecadal variability of global monsoons forced by the sea surface temperature during historical climate period; (b) the roles of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in driving variations of the global and regional monsoons; and (c) the effects of large orographic terrain on the establishment of the monsoons. The outputs of the CMIP6 Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima experiments (DECK), “historical” simulation and endorsed MIPs will also be used in the diagnostic analysis of GMMIP to give a comprehensive understanding of the roles played by different external forcings, potential improvements in the simulation of monsoon rainfall at high resolution and reproducibility at decadal timescales. The implementation of GMMIP will improve our understanding of the fundamental physics of changes in the global and regional monsoons over the past 140 years and ultimately benefit monsoons prediction and projection in the current century.« less

Forecasting daily emergency department visits using calendar variables and ambient temperature readings.

PubMed

Marcilio, Izabel; Hajat, Shakoor; Gouveia, Nelson

2013-08-01

This study aimed to develop different models to forecast the daily number of patients seeking emergency department (ED) care in a general hospital according to calendar variables and ambient temperature readings and to compare the models in terms of forecasting accuracy. The authors developed and tested six different models of ED patient visits using total daily counts of patient visits to an ED in Sao Paulo, Brazil, from January 1, 2008, to December 31, 2010. The first 33 months of the data set were used to develop the ED patient visits forecasting models (the training set), leaving the last 3 months to measure each model's forecasting accuracy by the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Forecasting models were developed using three different time-series analysis methods: generalized linear models (GLM), generalized estimating equations (GEE), and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA). For each method, models were explored with and without the effect of mean daily temperature as a predictive variable. The daily mean number of ED visits was 389, ranging from 166 to 613. Data showed a weekly seasonal distribution, with highest patient volumes on Mondays and lowest patient volumes on weekends. There was little variation in daily visits by month. GLM and GEE models showed better forecasting accuracy than SARIMA models. For instance, the MAPEs from GLM models and GEE models at the first month of forecasting (October 2012) were 11.5 and 10.8% (models with and without control for the temperature effect, respectively), while the MAPEs from SARIMA models were 12.8 and 11.7%. For all models, controlling for the effect of temperature resulted in worse or similar forecasting ability than models with calendar variables alone, and forecasting accuracy was better for the short-term horizon (7 days in advance) than for the longer term (30 days in advance). This study indicates that time-series models can be developed to provide forecasts of daily ED patient

Evaluation of empirical relationships between extreme rainfall and daily maximum temperature in Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herath, Sujeewa Malwila; Sarukkalige, Ranjan; Nguyen, Van Thanh Van

2018-01-01

Understanding the relationships between extreme daily and sub-daily rainfall events and their governing factors is important in order to analyse the properties of extreme rainfall events in a changing climate. Atmospheric temperature is one of the dominant climate variables which has a strong relationship with extreme rainfall events. In this study, a temperature-rainfall binning technique is used to evaluate the dependency of extreme rainfall on daily maximum temperature. The Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relation was found to describe the relationship between daily maximum temperature and a range of rainfall durations from 6 min up to 24 h for seven Australian weather stations, the stations being located in Adelaide, Brisbane, Canberra, Darwin, Melbourne, Perth and Sydney. The analysis shows that the rainfall - temperature scaling varies with location, temperature and rainfall duration. The Darwin Airport station shows a negative scaling relationship, while the other six stations show a positive relationship. To identify the trend in scaling relationship over time the same analysis is conducted using data covering 10 year periods. Results indicate that the dependency of extreme rainfall on temperature also varies with the analysis period. Further, this dependency shows an increasing trend for more extreme short duration rainfall and a decreasing trend for average long duration rainfall events at most stations. Seasonal variations of the scale changing trends were analysed by categorizing the summer and autumn seasons in one group and the winter and spring seasons in another group. Most of 99th percentile of 6 min, 1 h and 24 h rain durations at Perth, Melbourne and Sydney stations show increasing trend for both groups while Adelaide and Darwin show decreasing trend. Furthermore, majority of scaling trend of 50th percentile are decreasing for both groups.

A Mesoscale Analysis of Column-Integrated Aerosol Properties in Northern India During the TIGERZ 2008 Pre-Monsoon Period and a Comparison to MODIS Retrievals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Giles, D. M.; Holben, B. N.; Tripathi, S. N.; Eck, T. F.; Newcomb, W. W.; Slutsker, I.; Dickerson, R. R.; Thompson, A. M.; Wang, S.-H.; Singh, R. P.;

Land-Climate Feedbacks in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asharaf, Shakeel; Ahrens, Bodo

2016-04-01

In an attempt to identify how land surface states such as soil moisture influence the monsoonal precipitation climate over India, a series of numerical simulations including soil moisture sensitivity experiments was performed. The simulations were conducted with a nonhydrostatic regional climate model (RCM), the Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling (COSMO) in climate mode (CCLM) model, which was driven by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) data. Results showed that pre-monsoonal soil moisture has a significant impact on monsoonal precipitation formation and large-scale atmospheric circulations. The analysis revealed that even a small change in the processes that influence precipitation via changes in local evapotranspiration was able to trigger significant variations in regional soil moisture-precipitation feedback. It was observed that these processes varied spatially from humid to arid regions in India, which further motivated an examination of soil-moisture memory variation over these regions and determination of the ISM seasonal forecasting potential. A quantitative analysis indicated that the simulated soil-moisture memory lengths increased with soil depth and were longer in the western region than those in the eastern region of India. Additionally, the subsequent precipitation variance explained by soil moisture increased from east to west. The ISM rainfall was further analyzed in two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios: the Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES: B1) and the new Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs: RCP4.5). To that end, the CCLM and its driving global-coupled atmospheric-oceanic model (GCM), ECHAM/MPIOM were used in order to understand the driving processes of the projected inter-annual precipitation variability and associated trends. Results inferred that the projected rainfall changes were the result of two largely compensating processes: increase of remotely

Hydrological regions in monsoon Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kondoh, Akihiko; Budi Harto, Agung; Eleonora, Runtunuwu; Kojiri, Toshiharu

2004-11-01

Monsoon Asia is characterized by its diversity of natural and social environments. These environments range from humid tropics to arid regions and there exist associated various hydrological phenomena. This paper attempts to characterize the hydrological regions of monsoon Asia based on the water budget calculated using grid-based global datasets. A map of hydrological regions is created by ranking the value of water surplus and deficit. A humid zone with large water surplus extending from Southeast Asia to the Japanese archipelago, rapid transition from humid to arid environments in eastern China, and an arid region surrounded by a humid region in continental Southeast Asia are the most remarkable features in monsoon Asia. The map reveals that an essential characteristic of monsoon Asia is the proximity of the arid and humid environments. Many water problems and water management practices in a region can be easily understood by plotting them on a map. The boundaries of several large river basins are superimposed on the map, and examined for the water budget and flow regimes. The results are found to explain the regional characteristics of the seasonal runoff regimes satisfactorily. The importance of using a spatial framework for the comparative hydrological study in Monsoon Asia is highlighted.

Identification and future description of warming signatures over Pakistan with special emphasis on evolution of CO2 levels and temperature during the first decade of the twenty-first century.

PubMed

Haider, Khadija; Khokhar, Muhammad Fahim; Chishtie, Farrukh; RazzaqKhan, Waseem; Hakeem, Khalid Rehman

2017-03-01

Like other developing countries, Pakistan is also facing changes in temperature per decade and other climatic abnormalities like droughts and torrential rains. In order to assess and identify the extent of temperature change over Pakistan, the whole Pakistan was divided into five climatic zones ranging from very cold to hot and dry climates. Similarly, seasons in Pakistan are defined on the basis of monsoon variability as winter, pre-monsoon, monsoon, and post-monsoon. This study primarily focuses on the comparison of surface temperature observations from Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) network with PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) model simulations. Results indicate that PRECIS underestimates the temperature in Northern Pakistan and during the winter season. However, there exists a fair agreement between PRECIS output and observed datasets in the lower plain and hot areas of the country. An absolute increase of 0.07 °C is observed in the mean temperature over Pakistan during the time period of 1951-2010. Especially, the increase is more significant (0.7 °C) during the last 14 years (1997-2010). Moreover, SCIAMACHY observations were used to explore the evolution of atmospheric CO 2 levels in comparison to temperature over Pakistan. CO 2 levels have shown an increasing trend during the first decade of the twenty-first century.

Maintenance of Summer Monsoon Circulations: A Planetary-Scale Perspective.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Tsing-Chang

2003-06-01

The monsoon circulation, which is generally considered to be driven by the landmass-ocean thermal contrast, like a gigantic land-sea breeze circulation, exhibits a phase reversal in its vertical structure; a monsoon high aloft over a continental thermal low is juxtaposed with a midoceanic trough underlaid by an oceanic anticyclone. This classic monsoon circulation model is well matched by the monsoon circulation depicted with the observational data prior to the First Global Atmospheric Research Program (GARP) Global Experiment (FGGE). However, synthesizing findings of the global circulation portrayed with the post-FGGE data, it was found that some basic features of major monsoon circulations in Asia, North America, South America, and Australia differ from those of the classic monsoon circulation model. Therefore, a revision of the classic monsoon theory is suggested. With four different wave regimes selected to fit the horizontal dimensions of these monsoon circulations, basic features common to all four major monsoons are illustrated in terms of diagnostic analyses of the velocity potential maintenance equation (which relates diabatic heating and velocity potential) and the streamfunction budget (which links velocity potential and streamfunction) in these wave regimes. It is shown that a monsoon circulation is actually driven by the east-west differential heating and maintained dynamically by a balance between a vorticity source and advection. This dynamic balance is reflected by a spatial quadrature relationship between the monsoon divergent circulation and the monsoon high (low) at upper (lower) levels.

Changes in the influence of the western Pacific subtropical high on Asian summer monsoon rainfall in the late 1990s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Yanyan; Wang, Bin; Li, Xiaofan; Wang, Huijun

2017-10-01

The Year-to-year variability of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) is primarily controlled by atmosphere-ocean interaction (AOI) between the WPSH and the Indo-Pacific warm pool dipole SST anomalies (AOI mode) and the anomalous SST forcing from the equatorial central Pacific (the CP forcing mode). In this study, we show that the impacts of the WPSH variability on Asian summer monsoon rainfall have changed after the late 1990s. Before the late 1990s (the PRE epoch), the WPSH primarily affects East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and had little influence on Indian summer monsoon (ISM), whereas after the late 1990s (the POST epoch), the WPSH has strengthened its linkage to the ISM while weakened its relationship with the EASM. This epochal change is associated with a change in the leading circulation mode in the Asia-WP region. During the PRE (POST) epoch the WPSH variation is mainly controlled by the AOI (CP forcing) that mainly affects EASM (ISM). The epochal change of the leading mode may be attributed to the change of the ENSO properties in late 1990s: the CP types of El Nino become a leading ENSO mode in the POST epoch. This work provides a new perspective for understanding decadal changes of the ENSO-monsoon relationship through subtropical dynamics.

Clear-Sky Surface Solar Radiation During South China Sea Monsoon Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Po-Hsiung; Chou, Ming-Dah; Ji, Qiang; Tsay, Si-Chee; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Downward solar fluxes measured at Dungsha coral island (20 deg. 42 min. N, 116 deg. 43 min. E) during the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (May-June 1998) have been calibrated and compared with radiative transfer calculations for three clear-sky days. Model calculations use water vapor and temperature profiles from radiosound measurements and the aerosol optical thickness derived from sunphotometric radiance measurements at the surface. Results show that the difference between observed and model-calculated downward fluxes is less than 3% of the daily mean. Averaged over the three clear days, the difference reduces to 1%. The downward surface solar flux averaged over the three days is 314 W per square meters from observations and 317 W per square meters from model calculations, This result is consistent with a previous study using TOGA CAORE measurements, which found good agreements between observations and model calculations. This study provides an extra piece of useful information on the modeling of radiative transfer, which fills in the puzzle of the absorption of solar radiation in the atmosphere.

Multi-model projections of Indian summer monsoon climate changes under A1B scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niu, X.; Wang, S.; Tang, J.

2016-12-01

As part of the Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project for Asia, the projections of Indian summer monsoon climate changes are constructed using three global climate models (GCMs) and seven regional climate models (RCMs) during 2041-2060 based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B emission scenario. For the control climate of 1981-2000, most nested RCMs show advantage over the driving GCM of European Centre/Hamburg Fifth Generation (ECHAM5) in the temporal-spatial distributions of temperature and precipitation over Indian Peninsula. Following the driving GCM of ECHAM5, most nested RCMs produce advanced monsoon onset in the control climate. For future climate widespread summer warming is projected over Indian Peninsula by all climate models, with the Multi-RCMs ensemble mean (MME) temperature increasing of 1°C to 2.5°C and the maximum warming center located in northern Indian Peninsula. While for the precipitation, a large inter-model spread is projected by RCMs, with wetter condition in MME projections and significant increase over southern India. Driven by the same GCM, most RCMs project advanced monsoon onset while delayed onset is found in two Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) projections, indicating uncertainty can be expected in the Indian Summer Monsoon onset. All climate models except Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model with equal resolution (referred as CCAMP) and two RegCM3 models project stronger summer monsoon during 2041-2060. The disagreement in precipitation projections by RCMs indicates that the surface climate change on regional scale is not only dominated by the large-scale forcing which is provided by driving GCM but also sensitive to RCM' internal physics.

Aerosol Radiative Forcing over North India during Pre-Monsoon Season using WRF-Chem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Misra, A.; Kumar, K.; Michael, M.; Tripathi, S. N.

2013-12-01

Study of aerosols is important for a fair understanding of the Earth climate system. This requires knowledge of the physical, chemical, optical, and morphological properties of aerosols. Aerosol radiative forcing provides information on the effect of aerosols on the Earth radiation budget. Radiative forcing estimates using model data provide an opportunity to examine the contribution of individual aerosol species to overall radiative forcing. We have used Weather Research and Forecast with Online Chemistry (WRF-Chem) derived aerosol concentration data to compute aerosol radiative forcing over north India during pre-monsoon season of 2008, 2009, and 2010. WRF-Chem derived mass concentrations are converted to number concentrations using standard procedure. Optical Properties of Aerosol and Cloud (OPAC) software package is used to compute extinction and scattering coefficients, and asymmetry parameter. Computations are performed at different altitudes and the obtained values are integrated to get the column optical properties. Santa Barbara Discrete Ordinate Radiative Transfer (SBDART) model is used to calculate the radiative forcing at surface and top-of-atmosphere. Higher values of aerosol radiative forcing are observed over desert region in western Indian state of Rajasthan, and Punjab of Pakistan. Contribution of individual aerosol species to atmospheric radiative forcing is also assessed. Dust radiative forcing is high over western India. Radiative forcing due to BC and water-soluble (WASO) aerosols are higher over north-west Indian states of Punjab and Haryana, and the Indo-Gangetic Basin. A pool of high WASO optical depth and radiative forcing is observed over the Indo-Bangladesh border. The findings of aerosol optical depth and radiative forcing are consistent with the geography and prevailing aerosol climatology of various regions. Heating rate profiles due to total aerosols and only due to BC have been evaluated at selected stations in north India. They show

Observational Analysis of Two Contrasting Monsoon Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karri, S.; Ahmad, R.; Sujata, P.; Jose, S.; Sreenivas, G.; Maurya, D. K.

2014-11-01

The Indian summer monsoon rainfall contributes about 75 % of the total annual rainfall and exhibits considerable interannual variations. The agricultural economy of the country depends mainly on the monsoon rainfall. The long-range forecast of the monsoon rainfall is, therefore of significant importance in agricultural planning and other economic activities of the country. There are various parameters which influence the amount of rainfall received during the monsoon. Some of the important parameters considered by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) for the study of monsoon are Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR), moisture content of the atmosphere, zonal wind speed, low level vorticity, pressure gradient etc. Compared to the Long Period Average (LPA) value of rain fall, the country as a whole received higher amount of rainfall in June, 2013 (34 % more than LPA). The same month showed considerable decrease next year as the amount of rainfall received was around 43 % less compared to LPA. This drastic difference of monsoon prompted to study the behaviour of some of the monsoon relevant parameters. In this study we have considered five atmospheric parameters as the indicators of monsoon behaviour namely vertical relative humidity, OLR, aerosol optical depth (AOD), wind at 850 hPa and mean sea level pressure (MSLP). In the initial analysis of weekly OLR difference for year 2013 and 2014 shows positive values in the month of May over north-western parts of India (region of heat low). This should result in a weaker monsoon in 2014. This is substantiated by the rainfall data received for various stations over India. Inference made based on the analysis of RH profiles coupled with AOD values is in agreement with the rainfall over the corresponding stations.

Plateau monsoons of the northern hemisphere: a comparison between North America and Tibet

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tang, M.; Reiter, E.R.

1984-04-01

Detailed analyses are presented of the temperature and pressure fields of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and their seasonal variability over the western US and over the Plateau of Tibet (Qinghai-Xizang Plateau). Over the US these analyses rely on 850 mb data, augmented by surface data. Over Tibet the 600 mb surface adequately describes the PBL. The effects of a plateau monsoon appear prominently during winter and summer over both plateaus. Together with continental monsoon effects they help to shape prominent circulation features, such as the low-level jet stream (LLJ) over Texas and Oklahoma. The complex, seasonal characteristics of precipitationmore » regimes over the North American continent can be explained, to a large extent, by considering these monsoonal changes in the PBL, especially over the mountains. 37 references, 19 figures.« less

Radiative and thermodynamic responses to aerosol extinction profiles during the pre-monsoon month over South Asia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Feng, Y.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Coulter, R.

Aerosol radiative effects and thermodynamic responses over South Asia are examined with the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) for March 2012. Model results of aerosol optical depths (AODs) and extinction profiles are analyzed and compared to satellite retrievals and two ground-based lidars located in northern India. The WRF-Chem model is found to heavily underestimate the AOD during the simulated pre-monsoon month and about 83 % of the model's low bias is due to aerosol extinctions below ~2 km. Doubling the calculated aerosol extinctions below 850 hPa generates much better agreement with the observed AOD and extinction profilesmore » averaged over South Asia. To separate the effect of absorption and scattering properties, two runs were conducted: in one run (Case I), the calculated scattering and absorption coefficients were increased proportionally, while in the second run (Case II) only the calculated aerosol scattering coefficient was increased. With the same AOD and extinction profiles, the two runs produce significantly different radiative effects over land and oceans. On the regional mean basis, Case I generates 48% more heating in the atmosphere and 21% more dimming at the surface than Case II. Case I also produces stronger cooling responses over the land from the longwave radiation adjustment and boundary layer mixing. These rapid adjustments offset the stronger radiative heating in Case I and lead to an overall lower-troposphere cooling up to -0.7K day −1, which is smaller than that in Case II. Over the ocean, direct radiative effects dominate the heating rate changes in the lower atmosphere lacking such surface and lower atmosphere adjustments due to fixed sea surface temperature, and the strongest atmospheric warming is obtained in Case I. Consequently, atmospheric dynamics (boundary layer heights and meridional circulation) and thermodynamic processes (water vapor and cloudiness) are shown to respond

Radiative and thermodynamic responses to aerosol extinction profiles during the pre-monsoon month over South Asia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Feng, Y.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Coulter, R.

Aerosol radiative effects and thermodynamic responses over South Asia are examined with a version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) for March 2012. Model results of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and extinction profiles are analyzed and compared to satellite retrievals and two ground-based lidars located in the northern India. The WRF-Chem model is found to underestimate the AOD during the simulated pre-monsoon month and about 83 % of the model low-bias is due to aerosol extinctions below ~2 km. Doubling the calculated aerosol extinctions below 850 hPa generates much better agreement with the observed AODmore » and extinction profiles averaged over South Asia. To separate the effect of absorption and scattering properties, two runs were conducted: in one run (Case I), the calculated scattering and absorption coefficients were increased proportionally, while in the second run (Case II) only the calculated aerosol scattering coefficient was increased. With the same AOD and extinction profiles, the two runs produce significantly different radiative effects over land and oceans. On the regional mean basis, Case I generates 48 % more heating in the atmosphere and 21 % more dimming at the surface than Case II. Case I also produces stronger cooling responses over the land from the longwave radiation adjustment and boundary layer mixing. These rapid adjustments offset the stronger radiative heating in Case I and lead to an overall lower-troposphere cooling up to -0.7 K day −1, which is smaller than that in Case II. Over the ocean, direct radiative effects dominate the heating rate changes in the lower atmosphere lacking such surface and lower atmosphere adjustments due to fixed sea surface temperature, and the strongest atmospheric warming is obtained in Case I. Consequently, atmospheric dynamics (boundary layer heights and meridional circulation) and thermodynamic processes (water vapor and cloudiness) are shown to respond

Radiative and thermodynamic responses to aerosol extinction profiles during the pre-monsoon month over South Asia

DOE PAGES

Feng, Y.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Coulter, R.; ...

2016-01-18

Aerosol radiative effects and thermodynamic responses over South Asia are examined with the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) for March 2012. Model results of aerosol optical depths (AODs) and extinction profiles are analyzed and compared to satellite retrievals and two ground-based lidars located in northern India. The WRF-Chem model is found to heavily underestimate the AOD during the simulated pre-monsoon month and about 83 % of the model's low bias is due to aerosol extinctions below ~2 km. Doubling the calculated aerosol extinctions below 850 hPa generates much better agreement with the observed AOD and extinction profilesmore » averaged over South Asia. To separate the effect of absorption and scattering properties, two runs were conducted: in one run (Case I), the calculated scattering and absorption coefficients were increased proportionally, while in the second run (Case II) only the calculated aerosol scattering coefficient was increased. With the same AOD and extinction profiles, the two runs produce significantly different radiative effects over land and oceans. On the regional mean basis, Case I generates 48% more heating in the atmosphere and 21% more dimming at the surface than Case II. Case I also produces stronger cooling responses over the land from the longwave radiation adjustment and boundary layer mixing. These rapid adjustments offset the stronger radiative heating in Case I and lead to an overall lower-troposphere cooling up to -0.7K day −1, which is smaller than that in Case II. Over the ocean, direct radiative effects dominate the heating rate changes in the lower atmosphere lacking such surface and lower atmosphere adjustments due to fixed sea surface temperature, and the strongest atmospheric warming is obtained in Case I. Consequently, atmospheric dynamics (boundary layer heights and meridional circulation) and thermodynamic processes (water vapor and cloudiness) are shown to respond

Radiative and thermodynamic responses to aerosol extinction profiles during the pre-monsoon month over South Asia

DOE PAGES

Feng, Y.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Coulter, R.; ...

2015-06-19

Aerosol radiative effects and thermodynamic responses over South Asia are examined with a version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) for March 2012. Model results of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and extinction profiles are analyzed and compared to satellite retrievals and two ground-based lidars located in the northern India. The WRF-Chem model is found to underestimate the AOD during the simulated pre-monsoon month and about 83 % of the model low-bias is due to aerosol extinctions below ~2 km. Doubling the calculated aerosol extinctions below 850 hPa generates much better agreement with the observed AODmore » and extinction profiles averaged over South Asia. To separate the effect of absorption and scattering properties, two runs were conducted: in one run (Case I), the calculated scattering and absorption coefficients were increased proportionally, while in the second run (Case II) only the calculated aerosol scattering coefficient was increased. With the same AOD and extinction profiles, the two runs produce significantly different radiative effects over land and oceans. On the regional mean basis, Case I generates 48 % more heating in the atmosphere and 21 % more dimming at the surface than Case II. Case I also produces stronger cooling responses over the land from the longwave radiation adjustment and boundary layer mixing. These rapid adjustments offset the stronger radiative heating in Case I and lead to an overall lower-troposphere cooling up to -0.7 K day −1, which is smaller than that in Case II. Over the ocean, direct radiative effects dominate the heating rate changes in the lower atmosphere lacking such surface and lower atmosphere adjustments due to fixed sea surface temperature, and the strongest atmospheric warming is obtained in Case I. Consequently, atmospheric dynamics (boundary layer heights and meridional circulation) and thermodynamic processes (water vapor and cloudiness) are shown to respond

Impacts of Aerosol-Monsoon Interaction on Rainfall and Circulation over Northern India and the Himalaya Foothills

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Shi, Jainn-Jong; Matsui, T.; Chin, M.; Tan, Qian; Peters-Lidard, C.; Tao, W. K.

2016-01-01

The boreal summer of 2008 was unusual for the Indian monsoon, featuring exceptional heavy loading of dust aerosols over the Arabian Sea and northern-central India, near normal all- India rainfall, but excessive heavy rain, causing disastrous flooding in the Northern Indian Himalaya Foothills (NIHF) regions, accompanied by persistent drought conditions in central and southern India. Using NASA Unified-physics Weather Research Forecast (NUWRF) model with fully interactive aerosol physics and dynamics, we carried out three sets of 7-day ensemble model forecast experiments: 1) control with no aerosol, 2) aerosol radiative effect only and 3) aerosol radiative and aerosol-cloud-microphysics effects, to study the impacts of aerosol monsoon interactions on monsoon variability over the NIHF during the summer of 2008. Results show that aerosol-radiation interaction (ARI), i.e., dust aerosol transport, and dynamical feedback processes induced by aerosol-radiative heating, plays a key role in altering the large scale monsoon circulation system, reflected by an increased north-south tropospheric temperature gradient, a northward shift of heavy monsoon rainfall, advancing the monsoon onset by 1-5 days over the HF, consistent with the EHP hypothesis (Lau et al. 2006). Additionally, we found that dust aerosols, via the semi-direct effect, increase atmospheric stability, and cause the dissipation of a developing monsoon onset cyclone over northeastern India northern Bay of Bengal. Eventually, in a matter of several days, ARI transforms the developing monsoon cyclone into mesoscale convective cells along the HF slopes. Aerosol-Cloud-microphysics Interaction (ACI) further enhances the ARI effect in invigorating the deep convection cells and speeding up the transformation processes. Results indicate that even in short-term (up to weekly) numerical forecasting of monsoon circulation and rainfall, effects of aerosol-monsoon interaction can be substantial and cannot be ignored.

Impacts of aerosol-monsoon interaction on rainfall and circulation over Northern India and the Himalaya Foothills

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Shi, Jainn-Jong; Matsui, T.; Chin, M.; Tan, Qian; Peters-Lidard, C.; Tao, W. K.

2017-09-01

The boreal summer of 2008 was unusual for the Indian monsoon, featuring exceptional heavy loading of dust aerosols over the Arabian Sea and northern-central India, near normal all-India rainfall, but excessive heavy rain, causing disastrous flooding in the Northern Indian Himalaya Foothills (NIHF) regions, accompanied by persistent drought conditions in central and southern India. Using the NASA Unified-physics Weather Research Forecast (NUWRF) model with fully interactive aerosol physics and dynamics, we carried out three sets of 7-day ensemble model forecast experiments: (1) control with no aerosol, (2) aerosol radiative effect only and (3) aerosol radiative and aerosol-cloud-microphysics effects, to study the impacts of aerosol-monsoon interactions on monsoon variability over the NIHF during the summer of 2008. Results show that aerosol-radiation interaction (ARI), i.e., dust aerosol transport, and dynamical feedback processes induced by aerosol-radiative heating, plays a key role in altering the large-scale monsoon circulation system, reflected by an increased north-south tropospheric temperature gradient, a northward shift of heavy monsoon rainfall, advancing the monsoon onset by 1-5 days over the HF, consistent with the EHP hypothesis (Lau et al. in Clim Dyn 26(7-8):855-864, 2006). Additionally, we found that dust aerosols, via the semi-direct effect, increase atmospheric stability, and cause the dissipation of a developing monsoon onset cyclone over northeastern India/northern Bay of Bengal. Eventually, in a matter of several days, ARI transforms the developing monsoon cyclone into meso-scale convective cells along the HF slopes. Aerosol-Cloud-microphysics Interaction (ACI) further enhances the ARI effect in invigorating the deep convection cells and speeding up the transformation processes. Results indicate that even in short-term (up to weekly) numerical forecasting of monsoon circulation and rainfall, effects of aerosol-monsoon interaction can be

Daily ambient temperature and renal colic incidence in Guangzhou, China: a time-series analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Changyuan; Chen, Xinyu; Chen, Renjie; Cai, Jing; Meng, Xia; Wan, Yue; Kan, Haidong

2016-08-01

Few previous studies have examined the association between temperature and renal colic in developing regions, especially in China, the largest developing country in the world. We collected daily emergency ambulance dispatches (EADs) for renal colic from Guangzhou Emergency Center from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2012. We used a distributed-lag nonlinear model in addition to the over-dispersed generalized additive model to investigate the association between daily ambient temperature and renal colic incidence after controlling for seasonality, humidity, public holidays, and day of the week. We identified 3158 EADs for renal colic during the study period. This exposure-response curve was almost flat when the temperature was low and moderate and elevated when the temperature increased over 21 °C. For heat-related effects, the significant risk occurred on the concurrent day and diminished until lag day 7. The cumulative relative risk of hot temperatures (90th percentile) and extremely hot temperatures (99th percentile) over lag days 0-7 was 1.92 (95 % confidence interval, 1.21, 3.05) and 2.45 (95 % confidence interval, 1.50, 3.99) compared with the reference temperature of 21 °C. This time-series analysis in Guangzhou, China, suggested a nonlinear and lagged association between high outdoor temperatures and daily EADs for renal colic. Our findings might have important public health significance to prevent renal colic.

Influence of Decadal Variability of Global Oceans on South Asian Monsoon and ENSO-Monsoon Relation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishnamurthy, Lakshmi

This study has investigated the influence of the decadal variability associated with global oceans on South Asian monsoon and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-monsoon relation. The results are based on observational analysis using long records of monsoon rainfall and circulation and coupled general circulation model experiments using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM) version 4 model. The multi-channel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) of the observed rainfall over India yields three decadal modes. The first mode (52 year period) is associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the second one (21 year) with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the third mode (13 year) with the Atlantic tripole. The existence of these decadal modes in the monsoon was also found in the control simulation of NCAR CCSM4. The regionally de-coupled model experiments performed to isolate the influence of North Pacific and North Atlantic also substantiate the above results. The relation between the decadal modes in the monsoon rainfall with the known decadal modes in global SST is examined. The PDO has significant negative correlation with the Indian Monsoon Rainfall (IMR). The mechanism for PDO-monsoon relation is hypothesized through the seasonal footprinting mechanism and further through Walker and Hadley circulations. The model results also confirm the negative correlation between PDO and IMR and the mechanism through which PDO influences monsoon. Both observational and model analysis show that droughts (floods) are more likely over India than floods (droughts) when ENSO and PDO are in their warm (cold) phase. This study emphasizes the importance of carefully distinguishing the different decadal modes in the SST in the North Atlantic Ocean as they have different impacts on the monsoon. The AMO exhibits significant positive correlation with the IMR while the Atlantic tripole has significant negative

Projected changes in rainfall and temperature over homogeneous regions of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patwardhan, Savita; Kulkarni, Ashwini; Rao, K. Koteswara

2018-01-01

The impact of climate change on the characteristics of seasonal maximum and minimum temperature and seasonal summer monsoon rainfall is assessed over five homogeneous regions of India using a high-resolution regional climate model. Providing REgional Climate for Climate Studies (PRECIS) is developed at Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK. The model simulations are carried out over South Asian domain for the continuous period of 1961-2098 at 50-km horizontal resolution. Here, three simulations from a 17-member perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) produced using HadCM3 under the Quantifying Model Uncertainties in Model Predictions (QUMP) project of Hadley Centre, Met. Office, UK, have been used as lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) for the 138-year simulations of the regional climate model under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario. The projections indicate the increase in the summer monsoon (June through September) rainfall over all the homogeneous regions (15 to 19%) except peninsular India (around 5%). There may be marginal change in the frequency of medium and heavy rainfall events (>20 mm) towards the end of the present century. The analysis over five homogeneous regions indicates that the mean maximum surface air temperatures for the pre-monsoon season (March-April-May) as well as the mean minimum surface air temperature for winter season (January-February) may be warmer by around 4 °C towards the end of the twenty-first century.

Monsoon climate response in Indian teak (Tectona grandis L.f.) along a transect from coast to inland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sengupta, Saikat; Borgaonkar, Hemant; Joy, Reji Mariya; Ram, Somaru

2017-11-01

Indian monsoon (June-September) and post monsoon (October-November) rainfall show a distinct trend from coast to inland primarily due to moisture availability. However, the response of this synoptic-scale variation of rainfall amount to annual ring growth of Indian teak has not been studied systematically yet. The study is important as (1) ring width of Indian teak is considered as a reliable proxy for studying monsoon climate variability in multi-centennial time scale and (2) observed meteorological data show systematic changes in rainfall variation from coast to inland since last three decades. Towards this, we present here tree-ring width data from two locations—Thatibanda (1747-1979) and Nagzira (1728-2000) and use similar published data from two other locations—Allapalli (1866-1897) and Edugurapalli (1827-2000). The locations fall along a southeast northwest transect from south east Indian coast to inland. Monthly mean data from nearest observatories show an increasing trend in monsoon rainfall and a pronounced decreasing trend in post monsoon rainfall towards inland. Ring width data show moderately positive response to monsoon rainfall and negative response to summer (March-May) temperature for all stations suggesting moisture deficit in hot summer and intense precipitation in monsoon affect ring growth pattern in different ways. Ring width indices also exhibit significantly positive response with post monsoon rainfall at coastal location. The response gradually reduces towards inland. This preliminary study, thus, suggests that Indian teak has a potential to capture signals of the synoptic variation of post monsoon rainfall from coast to inland.

SMMR-SSM/I derived Greenland Sea ice variability: links with Indian and Korean Monsoons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prabhu, Amita; Oh, Jaiho; Kim, In-won; Kripalani, R. H.; Pandithurai, G.

2018-02-01

Greenland Sea ice area (GRESIA) in boreal autumn and its association with the subsequent summer monsoon rainfall over India and South Korea is assessed for the period 1983-2013. It is found that GRESIA in the month of October has a significant positive relation (correlation coefficient (cc) = 0.45) with the subsequent Indian monsoon rainfall (IMR) while having a significant negative relation (cc = -0.40) with the ensuing Korean monsoon rainfall (KMR). GRESIA episodes in the preceding autumn impact the ensuing summer monsoon rainfall over India (South Korea) adversely (favourably). While central Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) play a mediating role in transmitting the GRESIA signal towards the Indian subcontinent, snow over eastern Eurasia, just north of the Korea-Japan peninsula, plays a mediating role in transmitting the GRESIA signal towards the Korean peninsula. Although, the anomalies of equatorial central Pacific SSTs and eastern Eurasian snow play a crucial role in modulating IMR and KMR respectively, the GRESIA variability also plays a dominant role in modulating the monsoon variability over both the regions. Thus, a combination of autumn GRESIA along with SSTs over the central Pacific and snow over the eastern Eurasia, may possibly serve as a unique precursor to presage Asia's two diverse regional subsystems.

Modeling 100,000-year climate fluctuations in pre-Pleistocene time series

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crowley, Thomas J.; Kim, Kwang-Yul; Mengel, John G.; Short, David A.

1992-01-01

A number of pre-Pleistocene climate records exhibit significant fluctuations at the 100,000-year (100-ky) eccentricity period, before the time of such fluctuations in global ice volume. The origin of these fluctuations has been obscure. Results reported here from a modeling study suggest that such a response can occur over low-altitude land areas involved in monsoon fluctuations. The twice yearly passage of the sun across the equator and the seasonal timing of perihelion interact to increase both 100-ky and 400-ky power in the modeled temperature field. The magnitude of the temperature response is sufficiently large to leave an imprint on the geologic record, and simulated fluctuations resemble those found in records of Triassic lake levels.

Characteristics of monsoon inversions over the Arabian Sea observed by satellite sounder and reanalysis data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dwivedi, Sanjeev; Narayanan, M. S.; Venkat Ratnam, M.; Narayana Rao, D.

2016-04-01

Monsoon inversion (MI) over the Arabian Sea (AS) is one of the important characteristics associated with the monsoon activity over Indian region during summer monsoon season. In the present study, we have used 5 years (2009-2013) of temperature and water vapour measurement data obtained from satellite sounder instrument, an Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) onboard MetOp satellite, in addition to ERA-Interim data, to study their characteristics. The lower atmospheric data over the AS have been examined first to identify the areas where MIs are predominant and occur with higher strength. Based on this information, a detailed study has been made to investigate their characteristics separately in the eastern AS (EAS) and western AS (WAS) to examine their contrasting features. The initiation and dissipation times of MIs, their percentage occurrence, strength, etc., has been examined using the huge database. The relation with monsoon activity (rainfall) over Indian region during normal and poor monsoon years is also studied. WAS ΔT values are ˜ 2 K less than those over the EAS, ΔT being the temperature difference between 950 and 850 hPa. A much larger contrast between the WAS and EAS in ΔT is noticed in ERA-Interim data set vis-à-vis those observed by satellites. The possibility of detecting MI from another parameter, refractivity N, obtained directly from another satellite constellation of GPS Radio Occultation (RO) (COSMIC), has also been examined. MI detected from IASI and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) onboard the NOAA satellite have been compared to see how far the two data sets can be combined to study the MI characteristics. We suggest MI could also be included as one of the semipermanent features of southwest monsoon along with the presently accepted six parameters.

Application of Markov chain model to daily maximum temperature for thermal comfort in Malaysia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nordin, Muhamad Asyraf bin Che; Hassan, Husna

2015-10-22

The Markov chain’s first order principle has been widely used to model various meteorological fields, for prediction purposes. In this study, a 14-year (2000-2013) data of daily maximum temperatures in Bayan Lepas were used. Earlier studies showed that the outdoor thermal comfort range based on physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) index in Malaysia is less than 34°C, thus the data obtained were classified into two state: normal state (within thermal comfort range) and hot state (above thermal comfort range). The long-run results show the probability of daily temperature exceed TCR will be only 2.2%. On the other hand, the probability dailymore » temperature within TCR will be 97.8%.« less

High-resolution daily gridded data sets of air temperature and wind speed for Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brinckmann, Sven; Krähenmann, Stefan; Bissolli, Peter

2016-10-01

New high-resolution data sets for near-surface daily air temperature (minimum, maximum and mean) and daily mean wind speed for Europe (the CORDEX domain) are provided for the period 2001-2010 for the purpose of regional model validation in the framework of DecReg, a sub-project of the German MiKlip project, which aims to develop decadal climate predictions. The main input data sources are SYNOP observations, partly supplemented by station data from the ECA&D data set (http://www.ecad.eu). These data are quality tested to eliminate erroneous data. By spatial interpolation of these station observations, grid data in a resolution of 0.044° (≈ 5km) on a rotated grid with virtual North Pole at 39.25° N, 162° W are derived. For temperature interpolation a modified version of a regression kriging method developed by Krähenmann et al.(2011) is used. At first, predictor fields of altitude, continentality and zonal mean temperature are used for a regression applied to monthly station data. The residuals of the monthly regression and the deviations of the daily data from the monthly averages are interpolated using simple kriging in a second and third step. For wind speed a new method based on the concept used for temperature was developed, involving predictor fields of exposure, roughness length, coastal distance and ERA-Interim reanalysis wind speed at 850 hPa. Interpolation uncertainty is estimated by means of the kriging variance and regression uncertainties. Furthermore, to assess the quality of the final daily grid data, cross validation is performed. Variance explained by the regression ranges from 70 to 90 % for monthly temperature and from 50 to 60 % for monthly wind speed. The resulting RMSE for the final daily grid data amounts to 1-2 K and 1-1.5 ms-1 (depending on season and parameter) for daily temperature parameters

Analysis of Vegetation Index Variations and the Asian Monsoon Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, Sunhung; Leptoukh, Gregory G.; Gerasimov, Irina

2012-01-01

Vegetation growth depends on local climate. Significant anthropogenic land cover and land use change activities over Asia have changed vegetation distribution as well. On the other hand, vegetation is one of the important land surface variables that influence the Asian Monsoon variability through controlling atmospheric energy and water vapor conditions. In this presentation, the mean and variations of vegetation index of last decade at regional scale resolution (5km and higher) from MODIS have been analyzed. Results indicate that the vegetation index has been reduced significantly during last decade over fast urbanization areas in east China, such as Yangtze River Delta, where local surface temperatures were increased significantly in term of urban heat Island. The relationship between vegetation Index and climate (surface temperature, precipitation) over a grassland in northern Asia and over a woody savannas in southeast Asia are studied. In supporting Monsoon Asian Integrated Regional Study (MAIRS) program, the data in this study have been integrated into Giovanni, the online visualization and analysis system at NASA GES DISC. Most images in this presentation are generated from Giovanni system.

The Thermocline Layer and Chlorophyll-a Concentration Variability during Southeast Monsoon in the Banda Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pusparini, Nikita; Prasetyo, Budi; Ambariyanto; Widowati, Ita

2017-02-01

Thermocline layer and chlorophyll-a concentration can be used to investigate the upwelling region. This investigation is focused in the Banda Sea because the upwelling event in this area is quite large and has a longer upwelling duration than other waters in Indonesia. In addition, Banda Sea is also influenced by climatic factors such as monsoon. The aim of this research is to determine the validation of secondary data (from satellite imagery data and model) and in situ observation data (from research cruise) and to determine the variability of thermocline layer and chlorophyll-a concentration during Southeast Monsoon in the Banda Sea. The data used in this study were chlorophyll-a concentration, seawater vertical temperature at depths 0-400 meters, and sea surface temperature from remote sensing and in situ data. Spatial and temporal analysis of all parameters was conducted by quantitative descriptive method. The results showed that the variability of thermocline layer and the chlorophyll-a distribution were strongly related to seasonal pattern. In most cases, the estimates of thermocline layer and chlorophyll-a concentration using remote sensing algorithm were higher than in situ measured values. The greatest variability occurred in the eastern Banda Sea during the Southeast Monsoon with shallower thermocline layer, more abundance of chlorophyll-a concentration, and lower sea surface temperature.

Summer Monsoon, Kalahari Desert, Africa

NASA Image and Video Library

1992-11-01

STS052-152-047 (22 Oct- 1 Nov 1992) --- The Kalahari Desert had not seen any significant rainfall for months before the launch of STS-52. Here, Shuttle astronauts have captured the onset of the (Southern Hemisphere) summer monsoon over the Kalahari Desert, as illustrated by the large thunderstorm towers poking up through the sun's terminator. The summer monsoon, with its associated thunderstorms, generally lasts from November through March. Scientist observers of this area report that the summer monsoon contributes most of the annual rainfall to this environmentally sensitive area. Shuttle nadir position: 28.0 degrees south, 25.1 degrees east. The center of the scene is 22.0 degrees south, 25.0 degrees east, 16:20:04 GMT.

Reconciling societal and scientific definitions for the monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reeve, Mathew; Stephenson, David

2014-05-01

Science defines the monsoon in numerous ways. We can apply these definitions to forecast data, reanalysis data, observations, GCMs and more. In a basic research setting, we hope that this work will advance science and our understanding of the monsoon system. In an applied research setting, we often hope that this work will benefit a specific stakeholder or community. We may want to inform a stakeholder when the monsoon starts, now and in the future. However, what happens if the stakeholders cannot relate to the information because their perceptions do not align with the monsoon definition we use in our analysis? We can resolve this either by teaching the stakeholders or learning from them about how they define the monsoon and when they perceive it to begin. In this work we reconcile different scientific monsoon definitions with the perceptions of agricultural communities in Bangladesh. We have developed a statistical technique that rates different scientific definitions against the people's perceptions of when the monsoon starts and ends. We construct a probability mass function (pmf) around each of the respondent's answers in a questionnaire survey. We can use this pmf to analyze the time series of monsoon onsets and withdrawals from the different scientific definitions. We can thereby quantitatively judge which definition may be most appropriate for a specific applied research setting.

A ˜50 ka record of monsoonal variability in the Darjeeling foothill region, eastern Himalayas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, Ruby; Bera, Subir; Sarkar, Anindya; Paruya, Dipak Kumar; Yao, Yi-Feng; Li, Cheng-Sen

2015-04-01

Pollen, phytoliths and δ 13C signatures of soil organic matter from two fluvial sedimentary sequences of the Darjeeling foothill region, eastern Himalayas are used to portray palaeoclimatic oscillations and their impact on regional plant communities over the last ˜50 ka. Quantitative palaeoclimate estimation using coexistence approach on pollen data and other proxies indicate significant oscillations in precipitation during the late part of MIS 3 (46.4-25.9 ka), early and middle part of MIS 2 (25.9-15.6 ka), and 5.4 to 3.5 ka. Middle to late MIS 3 (ca 46.4-31 ka.) was characterized by a comparatively low monsoonal activity and slightly higher temperature than that during ca 31 ka onwards. Simultaneous expansion of deciduous trees and chloridoid grasses also imply a drier and warmer phase. Between 31 and 22.3 ka (late MIS 3 to mid-MIS 2), higher precipitation and a slightly cooler temperature led to an increase in evergreen elements over deciduous taxa and wet-loving panicoid grasses over dry-loving chloridoid grasses than earlier. After ca 22.3 ka, shrinking of forest cover, expansion of C4 chloridoid grasses, Asteraceae and Cheno-ams in the vegetation with lowering of temperature and precipitation characterized the onset of the LGM which continued till 18.3 ka. End of the LGM is manifested by a restoration in the forest cover and in the temperature and precipitation regime. Later, during 5.4 to 4.3 ka, a strong monsoonal activity supported a dense moist evergreen forest cover that subsequently declined during 4.3 to 3.5 ka. A further increase in deciduous elements and non-arboreals might be a consequence of reduced precipitation and higher temperature during this phase. A comparison between monsoonal rainfall, MAT and palaeoatmospheric CO2 with floral dynamics since last ˜50 ka indicates that these fluctuations in plant succession were mainly driven by monsoonal variations.

Simulation of South-Asian Summer Monsoon in a GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ajayamohan, R. S.

2007-10-01

Major characteristics of Indian summer monsoon climate are analyzed using simulations from the upgraded version of Florida State University Global Spectral Model (FSUGSM). The Indian monsoon has been studied in terms of mean precipitation and low-level and upper-level circulation patterns and compared with observations. In addition, the model's fidelity in simulating observed monsoon intraseasonal variability, interannual variability and teleconnection patterns is examined. The model is successful in simulating the major rainbelts over the Indian monsoon region. However, the model exhibits bias in simulating the precipitation bands over the South China Sea and the West Pacific region. Seasonal mean circulation patterns of low-level and upper-level winds are consistent with the model's precipitation pattern. Basic features like onset and peak phase of monsoon are realistically simulated. However, model simulation indicates an early withdrawal of monsoon. Northward propagation of rainbelts over the Indian continent is simulated fairly well, but the propagation is weak over the ocean. The model simulates the meridional dipole structure associated with the monsoon intraseasonal variability realistically. The model is unable to capture the observed interannual variability of monsoon and its teleconnection patterns. Estimate of potential predictability of the model reveals the dominating influence of internal variability over the Indian monsoon region.

Variation in the Asian monsoon intensity and dry-wet conditions since the Little Ice Age in central China revealed by an aragonite stalagmite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, J.-J.; Yuan, D.-X.; Li, H.-C.; Cheng, H.; Li, T.-Y.; Edwards, R. L.; Lin, Y.-S.; Qin, J.-M.; Tang, W.; Zhao, Z.-Y.; Mii, H.-S.

2014-10-01

This paper focuses on the climate variability in central China since AD 1300, involving: (1) a well-dated, 1.5-year resolution stalagmite δ18O record from Lianhua Cave, central China (2) links of the δ18O record with regional dry-wet conditions, monsoon intensity, and temperature over eastern China (3) correlations among drought events in the Lianhua record, solar irradiation, and ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) variation. We present a highly precise, 230Th / U-dated, 1.5-year resolution δ18O record of an aragonite stalagmite (LHD1) collected from Lianhua Cave in the Wuling Mountain area of central China. The comparison of the δ18O record with the local instrumental record and historical documents indicates that (1) the stalagmite δ18O record reveals variations in the summer monsoon intensity and dry-wet conditions in the Wuling Mountain area. (2) A stronger East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) enhances the tropical monsoon trough controlled by ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone), which produces higher spring quarter rainfall and isotopically light monsoonal moisture in the central China. (3) The summer quarter/spring quarter rainfall ratio in central China can be a potential indicator of the EASM strength: a lower ratio corresponds to stronger EASM and higher spring rainfall. The ratio changed from <1 to >1 after 1950, reflecting that the summer quarter rainfall of the study area became dominant under stronger influence of the Northwestern Pacific High. Eastern China temperatures varied with the solar activity, showing higher temperatures under stronger solar irradiation, which produced stronger summer monsoons. During Maunder, Dalton and 1900 sunspot minima, more severe drought events occurred, indicating a weakening of the summer monsoon when solar activity decreased on decadal timescales. On an interannual timescale, dry conditions in the study area prevailed under El Niño conditions, which is also supported by the spectrum analysis. Hence, our record

High Northern Latitude Insolation Forcing of Tropical Monsoons or Monsoon Forcing of High Northern Latitude Ice Volume?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, W.; Zhou, W.; Cheng, L.; Wu, Z.; Xian, F.; Kong, X.; Cottam, T.; An, Z.; White, L.

2017-12-01

We show that atmospheric 10Be flux is a quantitative proxy for rainfall, and use it to derive a 530Ka-long record of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall from Chinese Loess. Our record strongly resembles the Red Sea paleosea level and LR04 benthic foram δ18O records, with 53% & 45% of its variance reflected in each of these two global ice volume proxies. This suggests EASM intensity is closely coupled to ice volume by some mechanism. At first glance, this seems to support the claim based on strongly correlated Chinese cave δ18O and 65°N summer solar insolation that Asian monsoon intensity is controlled by high northern latitude insolation. Nevertheless, our 10Be-proxy has only 17% common variance with cave δ18O. Furthermore, Chinese cave δ18O records are very poorly correlated with sea-level/global ice volume, conflicting with both our proxy and Milankovitch theory, if interpreted as a monsoon intensity proxy. We argue that cave δ18O is instead a mixing proxy for monsoon moisture derived from (δ18O depleted) Indian vs Pacific monsoon sectors. We suggest both this mixing ratio and EASM intensity are not governed by high northern latitude insolation, but rather by orbital forcing of the low latitude interhemispheric insolation gradient, which mimics the 65°N insolation pattern. We show this gradient regulates the ratio of Asian monsoon outflow to the Indian vs. North Pacific subtropical highs, providing a coupling to both Hadley and Walker circulations. When outflow strengthens in one of these sectors it weakens in the other, regulating the relative strength of the Trade and Westerly winds in each sector. Trade wind coupling to monsoon strength in each sector controls the ISM/Pacific monsoon moisture mixing ratio and EASM intensity, although intensity is also influenced by other factors. This model provides mechanisms by which the monsoons may influence ice volume. Westerlies strength adjacent to the North Pacific Subtropical High strongly regulates transient

Regime shift of Indian summer monsoon rainfall to a persistent arid state: external forcing versus internal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srivastava, Ankur; Pradhan, Maheswar; Goswami, B. N.; Rao, Suryachandra A.

2017-11-01

The high propensity of deficient monsoon rainfall over the Indian sub-continent in the recent 3 decades (seven deficient monsoons against 3 excess monsoon years) compared to the prior 3 decades has serious implications on the food and water resources in the country. Motivated by the need to understand the high occurrence of deficient monsoon during this period, we examine the change in predictability of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and its teleconnections with Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures between the two periods. The shift in the tropical climate in the late 1970s appears to be one of the major reasons behind this. We find an increased predictability of the ISM in the recent 3 decades owing to reduced `internal' interannual variability (IAV) due to the high-frequency modes, while the `external' IAV arising from the low-frequency modes has remained largely the same. The Indian Ocean Dipole-ISM teleconnection has become positive during the monsoon season in the recent period thereby compensating for the weakened ENSO-ISM teleconnection. The central Pacific El-Niño and the Indian Ocean (IO) warming during the recent 3 decades are working together to realise enhanced ascending motion in the equatorial IO between 70°E and 100°E, preconditioning the Indian monsoon system prone to a deficient state.

Oblique propagation of monsoon gravity waves during the northern hemisphere 2007 summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thurairajah, Brentha; Siskind, David E.; Bailey, Scott M.; Carstens, Justin N.; Russell, James M.; Mlynczak, Martin G.

2017-05-01

We present a combination of satellite observation and high-resolution model output to understand monsoon convection as a source of high-latitude mesospheric gravity waves (GWs). The GWs generated over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) monsoon region during the 2007 summer and the role of the winds in focusing these GWs toward the high-latitude middle atmosphere are analyzed using the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry/Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (SABER/TIMED) satellite temperature data and the high-resolution Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System-Advanced Level Physics High Altitude (NOGAPS/ALPHA) model results. In the NH, above the stratosphere, the monsoon GW Momentum Flux (GWMF) exhibits a poleward tilt that follows the slanted structure of the easterly jet. The correlation coefficients (>0.5) between the time series of NH tropical stratospheric GWMF and the global winds also have a slanted structure that coincide with the easterly jet, confirming the modeling theory that stratospheric monsoon GWs are refracted into the summer easterly jet and can reach the high-latitude mesosphere. Since Polar Mesospheric Clouds (PMCs) are sensitive indicators of changes in the polar summer mesosphere, we compared the time series of tropical stratospheric GWMF to the PMC occurrence frequency (OF) obtained from the Cloud Imaging and Particle Size/Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere satellite data to assess the influence of this wave focusing in the mesosphere. There is a significant positive correlation between the high-latitude PMC OF and the tropical stratospheric GWMF suggesting a definite influence of monsoon GWs on the high-latitude mesosphere. The disagreement in correlation at the end of the PMC season is attributed to the enhancement of the quasi 5 day planetary wave dominating over the influence of monsoon GWs on PMCs.

Differences between true mean daily, monthly and annual air temperatures and air temperatures calculated with three equations: a case study from three Croatian stations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonacci, Ognjen; Željković, Ivana; Trogrlić, Robert Šakić; Milković, Janja

2013-10-01

Differences between true mean daily, monthly and annual air temperatures T0 [Eq. (1)] and temperatures calculated with three different equations [(2), (3) and (4)] (commonly used in climatological practice) were investigated at three main meteorological Croatian stations from 1 January 1999 to 31 December 2011. The stations are situated in the following three climatically distinct areas: (1) Zagreb-Grič (mild continental climate), (2) Zavižan (cold mountain climate), and (3) Dubrovnik (hot Mediterranean climate). T1 [Eq. (2)] and T3 [Eq. (4)] mean temperatures are defined by the algorithms based on the weighted means of temperatures measured at irregularly spaced, yet fixed hours. T2 [Eq. (3)] is the mean temperature defined as the average of daily maximum and minimum temperature. The equation as well as the time of observations used introduces a bias into mean temperatures. The largest differences occur for mean daily temperatures. The calculated daily difference value from all three equations and all analysed stations varies from -3.73 °C to +3.56 °C, from -1.39 °C to +0.79 °C for monthly differences and from -0.76 °C to +0.30 °C for annual differences.

Planetary Boundary Layer Patterns, Height Variability and their Controls over the Indian Subcontinent with respect to Monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sathyanadh, A.; Karipot, A.; Prabhakaran, T.

2016-12-01

Planetary boundary layer (PBL) height and its controlling factors undergo large variations at different spatio-temporal scales over land regions. In the present study, Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) data products are used to investigate variations of PBL height and its controls in relation to different phases of Indian monsoon. MERRA PBL height validations carried out against those estimated from radiosonde and Global Positioning System Radio Occultation atmospheric profiles revealed fairly good agreement. Different PBL patterns are identified in terms of maximum height, its time of occurrence and growth rate, and they vary with respect to geographical locations, terrain characteristics and monsoon circulation. The pre-monsoon boundary layers are the deepest over the region, often exceeding 4 km and grow at a rate of approximately 400 m hr-1. Large nocturnal BL depths, possibly related to weakly convective residual layers, are another feature noted during dry conditions. Monsoon BLs are generally shallower, except where rainfall is scanty. The break-monsoon periods have slightly deeper BLs than the active monsoon phase. The controlling factors for the observed boundary layer behaviour are investigated using supplementary MERRA datasets. Evaporative fraction is found to have dominant control on the PBL height varying with seasons and regions. The characteristics and controls of wet and dry boundary layer regimes over inland and coastal locations are different. The fractional diffusion (ratio of non-local and total diffusion) coefficient analyses indicated that enhanced entrainment during monsoon contributes to reduction in PBLH unlike in the dry period. The relationship between controls and PBLH are better defined over inland than coastal regions. The wavelet cross spectral analysis revealed temporal variations in dominant contributions from the controlling factors at different periodicities during the course of the year.

South Asian summer monsoon variability during the last ˜54 kyrs inferred from surface water salinity and river runoff proxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gebregiorgis, D.; Hathorne, E. C.; Sijinkumar, A. V.; Nath, B. Nagender; Nürnberg, D.; Frank, M.

2016-04-01

The past variability of the South Asian Monsoon is mostly known from records of wind strength over the Arabian Sea while high-resolution paleorecords from regions of strong monsoon precipitation are still lacking. Here, we present records of past monsoon variability obtained from sediment core SK 168/GC-1, which was collected at the Alcock Seamount complex in the Andaman Sea. We utilize the ecological habitats of different planktic foraminiferal species to reconstruct freshwater-induced stratification based on paired Mg/Ca and δ18O analyses and to estimate seawater δ18O (δ18Osw). The difference between surface and thermocline temperatures (ΔT) and δ18Osw (Δδ18Osw) is used to investigate changes in upper ocean stratification. Additionally, Ba/Ca in G. sacculifer tests is used as a direct proxy for riverine runoff and sea surface salinity (SSS) changes related to monsoon precipitation on land. Our Δδ18Osw time series reveals that upper ocean salinity stratification did not change significantly throughout the last glacial suggesting little influence of NH insolation changes. The strongest increase in temperature gradients between the mixed layer and the thermocline is recorded for the mid-Holocene and indicate the presence of a significantly shallower thermocline. In line with previous work, the δ18Osw and Ba/Ca records demonstrate that monsoon climate during the LGM was characterized by a significantly weaker southwest monsoon circulation and strongly reduced runoff. Based on our data the South Asian Summer Monsoon (SAM) over the Irrawaddyy strengthened gradually after the LGM beginning at ∼18 ka. This is some 3 kyrs before an increase of the Ba/Ca record from the Arabian Sea and indicates that South Asian Monsoon climate dynamics are more complex than the simple N-S displacement of the ITCZ as generally described for other regions. Minimum δ18Osw values recorded during the mid-Holocene are in phase with Ba/Ca marking a stronger monsoon precipitation

Urban heat mitigation by roof surface materials during the East Asian summer monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Seungjoon; Ryu, Youngryel; Jiang, Chongya

2017-04-01

Roof surface materials, such as green and white roofs, have attracted attention in their role in urban heat mitigation, and various studies have assessed the cooling performance of roof surface materials during hot and sunny summer seasons. However, summers in the East Asian monsoon climate region are characterized by significant fluctuations in weather events, such as dry periods, heatwaves, and rainy and cloudy days. This study investigated the efficacy of different roof surface materials for heat mitigation, considering the temperatures both at and beneath the surface of the roof covering materials during a summer monsoon in Seoul, Korea. We performed continuous observations of temperature at and beneath the surface of the roof covering materials, and manual observation of albedo and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) for a white roof, two green roofs (grass [Poa pratensis] and sedum [Sedum sarmentosum]), and a reference surface. Overall, the surface temperature of the white roof was significantly lower than that of the grass and sedum roofs (1.1 and 1.3°C), whereas the temperature beneath the surface of the white roof did not differ significantly from that of the grass and sedum roofs during the summer. The degree of cloudiness significantly modified the surface temperature of the white roof compared with that of the grass and sedum roofs, which depended on plant metabolisms. It was difficult for the grass to maintain its cooling ability without adequate watering management. After considering the cooling performance and maintenance efforts for different environmental conditions, we concluded that white roof performed better in urban heat mitigation than grass and sedum during the East Asian summer monsoon. Our findings will be useful in urban heat mitigation in the region.

Daily Mean Temperature and Urolithiasis Presentation in Six Cities in Korea: Time-Series Analysis.

PubMed

Chi, Byung Hoon; Chang, In Ho; Choi, Se Young; Suh, Dong Churl; Chang, Chong Won; Choi, Yun Jung; Lee, Seo Yeon

2017-06-01

Seasonal variation in urinary stone presentation is well described in the literature. However, previous studies have some limitations. To explore overall cumulative exposure-response and the heterogeneity in the relationships between daily meteorological factors and urolithiasis incidence in 6 major Korean cities, we analyzed data on 687,833 urolithiasis patients from 2009 to 2013 for 6 large cities in Korea: Seoul, Incheon, Daejeon, Gwangju, Daegu, and Busan. Using a time-series design and distributing lag nonlinear methods, we estimated the relative risk (RR) of mean daily urolithiasis incidence (MDUI) associated with mean daily meteorological factors, including the cumulative RR for a 20-day period. The estimated location-specific associations were then pooled using multivariate meta-regression models. A positive association was confirmed between MDUI and mean daily temperature (MDT), and a negative association was shown between MDUI and mean daily relative humidity (MDRH) in all cities. The lag effect was within 5 days. The multivariate Cochran Q test for heterogeneity at MDT was 12.35 (P = 0.136), and the related I² statistic accounted for 35.2% of the variability. Additionally, the Cochran Q test for heterogeneity and I² statistic at MDHR were 26.73 (P value = 0.148) and 24.7% of variability in the total group. Association was confirmed between daily temperature, relative humidity and urolithiasis incidence, and the differences in urolithiasis incidence might have been partially attributable to the different frequencies and the ranges in temperature and humidity between cities in Korea. © 2017 The Korean Academy of Medical Sciences.

Monsoon Forecasting based on Imbalanced Classification Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribera, Pedro; Troncoso, Alicia; Asencio-Cortes, Gualberto; Vega, Inmaculada; Gallego, David

2017-04-01

Monsoonal systems are quasiperiodic processes of the climatic system that control seasonal precipitation over different regions of the world. The Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon (WNPSM) is one of those monsoons and it is known to have a great impact both over the global climate and over the total precipitation of very densely populated areas. The interannual variability of the WNPSM along the last 50-60 years has been related to different climatic indices such as El Niño, El Niño Modoki, the Indian Ocean Dipole or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Recently, a new and longer series characterizing the monthly evolution of the WNPSM, the WNP Directional Index (WNPDI), has been developed, extending its previous length from about 50 years to more than 100 years (1900-2007). Imbalanced classification techniques have been applied to the WNPDI in order to check the capability of traditional climate indices to capture and forecast the evolution of the WNPSM. The problem of forecasting has been transformed into a binary classification problem, in which the positive class represents the occurrence of an extreme monsoon event. Given that the number of extreme monsoons is much lower than the number of non-extreme monsoons, the resultant classification problem is highly imbalanced. The complete dataset is composed of 1296 instances, where only 71 (5.47%) samples correspond to extreme monsoons. Twenty predictor variables based on the cited climatic indices have been proposed, and namely, models based on trees, black box models such as neural networks, support vector machines and nearest neighbors, and finally ensemble-based techniques as random forests have been used in order to forecast the occurrence of extreme monsoons. It can be concluded that the methodology proposed here reports promising results according to the quality parameters evaluated and predicts extreme monsoons for a temporal horizon of a month with a high accuracy. From a climatological point of view

Asian Eocene monsoons as revealed by leaf architectural signatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spicer, Robert A.; Yang, Jian; Herman, Alexei B.; Kodrul, Tatiana; Maslova, Natalia; Spicer, Teresa E. V.; Aleksandrova, Galina; Jin, Jianhua

2016-09-01

The onset and development of the Asian monsoon systems is a topic that has attracted considerable research effort but proxy data limitations, coupled with a diversity of definitions and metrics characterizing monsoon phenomena, have generated much debate. Failure of geological proxies to yield metrics capable of distinguishing between rainfall seasonality induced by migrations of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) from that attributable to topographically modified seasonal pressure reversals has frustrated attempts to understand mechanisms underpinning monsoon development and dynamics. Here we circumvent the use of such single climate parameter metrics in favor of detecting directly the distinctive attributes of different monsoon regimes encoded in leaf fossils. Leaf form adapts to the prevailing climate, particularly under the extreme seasonal stresses imposed by monsoons, so it is likely that fossil leaves carry a unique signature of past monsoon regimes. Leaf form trait spectra obtained from fossils from Eocene basins in southern China were compared with those seen in modern leaves growing under known climate regimes. The fossil leaf trait spectra, including those derived from previously published fossil floras from northwestern India, were most similar to those found in vegetation exposed to the modern Indonesia-Australia Monsoon (I-AM), which is largely a product of seasonal migrations of the ITCZ. The presence of this distinctive leaf physiognomic signature suggests that although a monsoon climate existed in Eocene time across southern Asia the characteristics of the modern topographically-enhanced South Asia Monsoon had yet to develop. By the Eocene leaves in South Asia had become well adapted to an I-AM type regime across many taxa and points to the existence of a pervasive monsoon climate prior to the Eocene. No fossil trait spectra typical of exposure to the modern East Asia monsoon were seen, suggesting the effects of this system in southern

Mediterranean summer climate and the monsoon regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baldi, M.; Crisci, A.; Dalu, G. A.; Maracchi, G.; Meneguzzo, F.; Pasqui, M.

2003-04-01

The Authors examine the general features of climate of the Mediterranean Region, i.e. its variability and trends in the last 40 years, and the teleconnections between Mediterranean climate and the global climate, using zonal and global indices. In particular they focus the attention on the analysis of the summer Mediterranean climate, and its variability and connection with the summer monsoon regimes. Several subregions can be distinguished in the Mediterranean for each season, and the occurrence of Mediterranean Oscillation is evident between West and East sub-basins. Precipitation and SLP fields in the Eastern basin are shown to be correlated with Mediterranean Oscillation. A total decrease of precipitation has been detected in last few years, although there are some very intense. During winter a fundamental role is played by NAO index, which, influencing the storm tracks coming from the Atlantic and passing over the Mediterranean and North Europe, it has a major role in the precipitation patterns over the Region. Moreover, temperature analysis over the last 40 years in the Mediterranean shows a distinct warming, in agreement with the pattern over North Emisphere and NAO index fluctuations. During summer the Hadley cell extend further northwards, influencing the Mediterranean climate, and there is evidence of a possible teleconnection with the Asian Monsoon, and the Sahel precipitation (and related Hadley cell): the SLP field in the Eastern Mediterranean is inversely correlated with those two precipitation indices, while it is positively correlated with the pressure in the Western Mediterranean. Leading mechanisms of interaction between Mediterranean summer rainfall and SLP patterns and precipitation indices associated with monsoon regimes are stressed out and investigated, as well as the influence of the position and strength of the Hadley cell, by means of both statistical and dynamical analytical arguments. A modeling study has been carried out in order to

Temporal and Spatial Variability of the Ras Al-Hadd Jet/Front in the Northwest Arabian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al Shaqsi, Hilal Mohamed Said

Thirteen years of 1.1 km resolution daily satellites remote sensing sea surface temperature datasets (2002-2014), sea surface winds, sea surface height, Argo floats, daily three-hour interval wind datasets, and hourly records of oceanography physical parameters from mooring current meters were processed and analyzed to investigate the dynamics, temporal and spatial variability of the Ras Al-Hadd Jet off the northwest Arabian Sea. Cayula and Cornillon single image edge detection algorithm was used to detect these thermal fronts. The Ras Al-Hadd thermal front was found to have two seasonal peaks. The first peak occurred during the intensified southwest monsoon period (July/August), while the second peak was clearly observed during the transitional period or the Post-Southwest monsoon (September-October). Interannual and intraseasonal variability showed the occurrence of the Ras Al-Hadd thermal fronts in the northwest Arabian Sea. The southwest monsoon winds, the Somalia Current, the East Arabian Current, and the warmer high salinity waters from the Sea of Oman are the main factors influencing the creation of the Ras Al-Hadd Jet. Based on direct observations, current velocity in the Cape Ras Al-Hadd Jet exceeded 120 cms-1, and the wind speed was over 12 ms-1 during the southwest monsoon seasons. The mean width and the mean length of the Jet were approximately 40 km and 260 km, respectively. Neither the winter monsoon, nor the Pre-Southwest monsoon seasons showed signs of the Ras Al-Hadd Jet or fronts in the northwest Arabian Sea.

The effect of El-Niño on South Asian Monsoon and agricultural production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukherjee, A.

2015-12-01

Mukherjee A, Wang S.Y.Abstract:The South Asian Monsoon has a prominent and significant impact on South Asian countries like India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and it is one of the most studied phenomena in the world. The monsoon is historically known to be influenced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The inter-annual and inter-decadal variability of seasonal precipitation over India strongly depends upon the ENSO phasing. The average southwest monsoon rainfall received during the years with El Niño was found to be less compared to normal years and the average rainfall during the northeast monsoon is higher in coastal Andhra Pradesh. ENSO is anti-correlated with Indian summer monsoon (ISM). The last prominent effect of ENSO on India's monsoon occurred in 2009 with 23% reduction in annual rainfall, reducing summer sown crops such as rice, sugar cane etc. and pushing up food prices. Climatic resources endowment plays a major role in planning agricultural production in tropical and sub-tropical environment especially under rain-fed agriculture, and so contingent crop planning drawn on this relationship would help to mitigate the effects of ENSO episodes in the region. The unexplored area in this domain of research is the changes in the frequency and intensity of ENSO due to global warming and its impact on ENSO prediction and agricultural management practices. We analyze the last 30 years datasets of Pacific SST, and precipitation and air temperature over Southeast Asia to examine the evolution of ENSO teleconnections with ISM, as well as making estimates of drought indices such as Palmer Drought Severity Index. This research can lead toward better crop management strategies in the South Asian monsoon region.

Mechanism of ENSO influence on the South Asian monsoon rainfall in global model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, Sneh; Kar, Sarat C.

2018-02-01

Coupled ocean atmosphere global climate models are increasingly being used for seasonal scale simulation of the South Asian monsoon. In these models, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) evolve as coupled air-sea interaction process. However, sensitivity experiments with various SST forcing can only be done in an atmosphere-only model. In this study, the Global Forecast System (GFS) model at T126 horizontal resolution has been used to examine the mechanism of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing on the monsoon circulation and rainfall. The model has been integrated (ensemble) with observed, climatological and ENSO SST forcing to document the mechanism on how the South Asian monsoon responds to basin-wide SST variations in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The model simulations indicate that the internal variability gets modulated by the SSTs with warming in the Pacific enhancing the ensemble spread over the monsoon region as compared to cooling conditions. Anomalous easterly wind anomalies cover the Indian region both at 850 and 200 hPa levels during El Niño years. The locations and intensity of Walker and Hadley circulations are altered due to ENSO SST forcing. These lead to reduction of monsoon rainfall over most parts of India during El Niño events compared to La Niña conditions. However, internally generated variability is a major source of uncertainty in the model-simulated climate.

Operational forecasting of daily temperatures in the Valencia Region. Part I: maximum temperatures in summer.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gómez, I.; Estrela, M.

2009-09-01

Extreme temperature events have a great impact on human society. Knowledge of summer maximum temperatures is very useful for both the general public and organisations whose workers have to operate in the open, e.g. railways, roadways, tourism, etc. Moreover, summer maximum daily temperatures are considered a parameter of interest and concern since persistent heat-waves can affect areas as diverse as public health, energy consumption, etc. Thus, an accurate forecasting of these temperatures could help to predict heat-wave conditions and permit the implementation of strategies aimed at minimizing the negative effects that high temperatures have on human health. The aim of this work is to evaluate the skill of the RAMS model in determining daily maximum temperatures during summer over the Valencia Region. For this, we have used the real-time configuration of this model currently running at the CEAM Foundation. To carry out the model verification process, we have analysed not only the global behaviour of the model for the whole Valencia Region, but also its behaviour for the individual stations distributed within this area. The study has been performed for the summer forecast period of 1 June - 30 September, 2007. The results obtained are encouraging and indicate a good agreement between the observed and simulated maximum temperatures. Moreover, the model captures quite well the temperatures in the extreme heat episodes. Acknowledgement. This work was supported by "GRACCIE" (CSD2007-00067, Programa Consolider-Ingenio 2010), by the Spanish Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia, contract number CGL2005-03386/CLI, and by the Regional Government of Valencia Conselleria de Sanitat, contract "Simulación de las olas de calor e invasiones de frío y su regionalización en la Comunidad Valenciana" ("Heat wave and cold invasion simulation and their regionalization at Valencia Region"). The CEAM Foundation is supported by the Generalitat Valenciana and BANCAIXA (Valencia, Spain).

Interannual Variability, Global Teleconnection, and Potential Predictability Associated with the Asian Summer Monsoon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K. M.; Kim, K. M.; Li, J. Y.

2001-01-01

In this Chapter, aspects of global teleconnections associated with the interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) are discussed. The basic differences in the basic dynamics of the South Asian Monsoon and the East Asian monsoon, and their implications on global linkages are discussed. Two teleconnection modes linking ASM variability to summertime precipitation over the continental North America were identified. These modes link regional circulation and precipitation anomalies over East Asia and continental North America, via coupled atmosphere-ocean variations over the North Pacific. The first mode has a large zonally symmetrical component and appears to be associated with subtropical jetstream variability and the second mode with Rossby wave dispersion. Both modes possess strong sea surface temperature (SST) expressions in the North Pacific. Results show that the two teleconnection modes may have its origin in intrinsic modes of sea surface temperature variability in the extratropical oceans, which are forced in part by atmospheric variability and in part by air-sea interaction. The potential predictability of the ASM associated with SST variability in different ocean basins is explored using a new canonical ensemble correlation prediction scheme. It is found that SST anomalies in tropical Pacific, i.e., El Nino, is the most dominant forcing for the ASM, especially over the maritime continent and eastern Australia. SST anomalies in the India Ocean may trump the influence from El Nino in western Australia and western maritime continent. Both El Nino, and North Pacific SSTs contribute to monsoon precipitation anomalies over Japan, southern Korea, northern and central China. By optimizing SST variability signals from the world ocean basins using CEC, the overall predictability of ASM can be substantially improved.

Enhanced export of carbon by salps during the northeast monsoon period in the northern Arabian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramaswamy, V.; Sarin, M. M.; Rengarajan, R.

2005-07-01

A drifting sediment trap was deployed and 234Th activity in the water column was measured to calculate export flux of carbon at a time-series station in the northern Arabian Sea (lat. 21°30' N; long. 64°00' E) during the winter monsoon, 10-23 February 1997. The sampling period was characterised by an extensive salp swarm, and salp faecal pellets were the dominant contributors to the particulate matter in the sediment traps. Average 234Th flux out of the photic zone was 2300 dpm m -2 d -1 and average POC/ 234Th ratio in trap-derived particles was 0.14 mg/dpm. Average 234Th-derived export flux of carbon was about 332 mg m -2 d -1, representing 36% of the daily primary production (PP) (925 mg C m -2 d -1). Export of about one-third of the daily PP during the end of the winter monsoon could be due to the episodic nature of salp swarms. Salp swarms are frequently observed in the Arabian Sea and may be a significant pathway for rapid export of carbon from the euphotic zone.

Transient coupling relationships of the Holocene Australian monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McRobie, F. H.; Stemler, T.; Wyrwoll, K.-H.

2015-08-01

The northwest Australian summer monsoon owes a notable degree of its interannual variability to interactions with other regional monsoon systems. Therefore, changes in the nature of these relationships may contribute to variability in monsoon strength over longer time scales. Previous attempts to evaluate how proxy records from the Indonesian-Australian monsoon region correspond to other records from the Indian and East Asian monsoon regions, as well as to El Niño-related proxy records, have been qualitative, relying on 'curve-fitting' methods. Here, we seek a quantitative approach for identifying coupling relationships between paleoclimate proxy records, employing statistical techniques to compute the interdependence of two paleoclimate time series. We verify the use of complex networks to identify coupling relationships between modern climate indices. This method is then extended to a set of paleoclimate proxy records from the Asian, Australasian and South American regions spanning the past 9000 years. The resulting networks demonstrate the existence of coupling relationships between regional monsoon systems on millennial time scales, but also highlight the transient nature of teleconnections during this period. In the context of the northwest Australian summer monsoon, we recognise a shift in coupling relationships from strong interhemispheric links with East Asian and ITCZ-related proxy records in the mid-Holocene to significantly weaker coupling in the later Holocene. Although the identified links cannot explain the underlying physical processes leading to coupling between regional monsoon systems, this method provides a step towards understanding the role that changes in teleconnections play in millennial-to orbital-scale climate variability.

Centennial-scale solar forcing of the South American Monsoon System recorded in stalagmites.

PubMed

Novello, Valdir F; Vuille, Mathias; Cruz, Francisco W; Stríkis, Nicolás M; de Paula, Marcos Saito; Edwards, R Lawrence; Cheng, Hai; Karmann, Ivo; Jaqueto, Plínio F; Trindade, Ricardo I F; Hartmann, Gelvam A; Moquet, Jean S

2016-04-21

The South American Monsoon System (SAMS) is generally considered to be highly sensitive to Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature variations on multi-centennial timescales. The direct influence of solar forcing on moisture convergence in global monsoon systems on the other hand, while well explored in modeling studies, has hitherto not been documented in proxy data from the SAMS region. Hence little is known about the sensitivity of the SAMS to solar forcing over the past millennium and how it might compete or constructively interfere with NH temperature variations that occurred primarily in response to volcanic forcing. Here we present a new annually-resolved oxygen isotope record from a 1500-year long stalagmite recording past changes in precipitation in the hitherto unsampled core region of the SAMS. This record details how solar variability consistently modulated the strength of the SAMS on centennial time scales during the past 1500 years. Solar forcing, besides the previously recognized influence from NH temperature changes and associated Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shifts, appears as a major driver affecting SAMS intensity at centennial time scales.

Distribution of coccolithophores as a potential proxy in paleoceanography: The case of the Oman Sea monsoonal pattern

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mojtahedin, Elham; Hadavi, Fatemeh; Lak, Razyeh

2015-02-01

High abundances of coccoliths have been observed in surface sediment samples from near the coasts of the Oman Sea in February 2011. At the end of the NE monsoon, the locally observed high Gephyrocapsa oceanica production is hypothesized to respond to local injections of nutrient-rich deep water into the surface water due to sea-surface cooling leading to convection. The most abundant coccolithophore species are G. oceanica followed by Emiliania huxleyi, Helicosphaera carteri, Calcidiscus leptoporus. Some species, such as Gephyrocapsa muellerae, Gephyrocapsa ericsonii, Umbilicosphaera sibogae, Umbellosphaera tenuis and Florisphaera profunda, are rare. The G. oceanica suggested a prevalence of upwelling conditions or high supply of nutrients in the Oman Sea (especially West Jask) at the end of the NE monsoon. E. huxleyi showed low relative abundances at the end of the NE monsoon. Due to the location of the Oman Sea in low latitudes with high temperatures, we have observed low abundances of G. muellerae in the study area. Additionally, we have identified low abundances of G. ericsonii at the end of the NE monsoon. Helicosphaera carteri showed a clear negative response with decreasing amounts (relative abundances) at the end of the NE monsoon. C. leptoporus, U. sibogae and U. tenuis have very low relative abundances in the NE monsoon and declined extremely at the end of the NE monsoon. F. profunda, which is known to inhabit the lower photic zone (<100 m depht) was rarely observed in the samples.

South Asian Summer Monsoon and Its Relationship with ENSO in the IPCC AR4 Simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Annamalai, H; Hamilton, K; Sperber, K R

, suggesting a lack of predictability of the decadal modulation of the monsoon-ENSO relationship. The analysis was repeated for each of the four models using results from integrations in which the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration was raised to twice pre-industrial values. From these ''best'' models in the double CO{sub 2} simulations there are increases in both the mean monsoon rainfall over the Indian sub-continent (by 5-25%) and in its interannual variability (5-10%). We find for each model that the ENSO-monsoon correlation in the global warming runs is very similar to that in the 20th century runs, suggesting that the ENSO-monsoon connection will not weaken as global climate warms. This result, though plausible, needs to be taken with some caution because of the diversity in the simulation of ENSO variability in the coupled models we have analyzed. The implication of the present results for monsoon prediction are discussed.« less

Understanding the role of moisture transport on the dry bias in indian monsoon simulations by CFSv2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahana, A. S.; Pathak, Amey; Roxy, M. K.; Ghosh, Subimal

2018-02-01

We analyse the bias present in the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR), as simulated by Climate Forecast System Model 2 (CFSv2), the operational model used for monsoon forecasts in India. In the simulations, the precipitation intensity is redistributed within the ITCZ band with southward shifts of precipitation maxima. We observe weakening of maximum intensity of precipitation over the region between 20°N and 14°N. In the simulations by CFSv2, there exists two rain bands: the northern one located slightly southward compared to reanalysis dataset and the southern one over the equator with intensified precipitation. This results in dry bias over land and wet bias over the ocean. We use a Dynamic Recycling Model, based on Lagrangian approach, to investigate the role of various moisture sources in generating these biases. We find that, the dry bias during June exists due to the delayed monsoon onset and reduced moisture flow from the Arabian Sea. As the monsoon progresses, deficiency in the simulated contributions from South Indian Ocean becomes the key source of bias. The reduced supply of moisture from oceanic sources is primarily attributed to the weaker northward transport of moisture flux from the Southern Ocean, associated with a weaker southward energy flux. Inefficiency of the model in simulating the heating in Tibetan plateau during the pre-monsoon period leads to this reduced cross equatorial energy flow. We also find that, towards the end of monsoon season, moisture contributions from land sources namely, Ganga Basin and North-Eastern forests become significant and underestimations of the same in the simulations by CFSv2 result into biases over Central and Eastern India.

Chronic air pollution and social deprivation as modifiers of the association between high temperature and daily mortality

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Heat and air pollution are both associated with increases in mortality. However, the interactive effect of temperature and air pollution on mortality remains unsettled. Similarly, the relationship between air pollution, air temperature, and social deprivation has never been explored. Methods We used daily mortality data from 2004 to 2009, daily mean temperature variables and relative humidity, for Paris, France. Estimates of chronic exposure to air pollution and social deprivation at a small spatial scale were calculated and split into three strata. We developed a stratified Poisson regression models to assess daily temperature and mortality associations, and tested the heterogeneity of the regression coefficients of the different strata. Deaths due to ambient temperature were calculated from attributable fractions and mortality rates were estimated. Results We found that chronic air pollution exposure and social deprivation are effect modifiers of the association between daily temperature and mortality. We found a potential interactive effect between social deprivation and chronic exposure with regards to air pollution in the mortality-temperature relationship. Conclusion Our results may have implications in considering chronically polluted areas as vulnerable in heat action plans and in the long-term measures to reduce the burden of heat stress especially in the context of climate change. PMID:24941876

Chronic air pollution and social deprivation as modifiers of the association between high temperature and daily mortality.

PubMed

Benmarhnia, Tarik; Oulhote, Youssef; Petit, Claire; Lapostolle, Annabelle; Chauvin, Pierre; Zmirou-Navier, Denis; Deguen, Séverine

2014-06-18

Heat and air pollution are both associated with increases in mortality. However, the interactive effect of temperature and air pollution on mortality remains unsettled. Similarly, the relationship between air pollution, air temperature, and social deprivation has never been explored. We used daily mortality data from 2004 to 2009, daily mean temperature variables and relative humidity, for Paris, France. Estimates of chronic exposure to air pollution and social deprivation at a small spatial scale were calculated and split into three strata. We developed a stratified Poisson regression models to assess daily temperature and mortality associations, and tested the heterogeneity of the regression coefficients of the different strata. Deaths due to ambient temperature were calculated from attributable fractions and mortality rates were estimated. We found that chronic air pollution exposure and social deprivation are effect modifiers of the association between daily temperature and mortality. We found a potential interactive effect between social deprivation and chronic exposure with regards to air pollution in the mortality-temperature relationship. Our results may have implications in considering chronically polluted areas as vulnerable in heat action plans and in the long-term measures to reduce the burden of heat stress especially in the context of climate change.

The influence of Indian summer monsoon on the climatic regime of Eastern Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rizou, D.; Flocas, H. A.; Bartzokas, A.; Helmis, C. G.

2012-04-01

In a previous study, composite analysis demonstrated that there are significant differences in the atmospheric circulation over the greater Mediterranean region at the upper and lower levels between strong and weak monsoon years. More specifically, in the lower atmosphere the geopotential height anomaly patterns for the extreme Indian summer monsoon (ISM) years indicated the intensification (weakening) of the Azores anticyclone and the Persian trough, which extends from the Asian monsoon towards the Aegean Sea, during strong (weak) ISM years. This further implies that the ISM has an impact on the strong northerly winds blowing over the Aegean Sea, namely "Etesians", which result from the combined action of the two aforementioned major systems. The accompanied continual cool advection in the area was identified in the negative anomalies of the strong 1000 hPa temperature composite over the region. At the same time, in the 500 hPa ω anomaly field it was found that a pronounced subsidence (upward motion) dominates over Eastern Mediterranean during years of strong (weak) ISM, counteracting the advective cooling in the area. The objective of this study is to further investigate the ISM impact on the temperature and wind regime of the Eastern Mediterranean region, with the aid of multivariate statistics. For this purpose, the standardized Dynamic Indian Monsoon Index by Wang and Fan (1999) was used for a period of 44 years (1958-2001) along with ERA40 Reanalysis data, including monthly means of surface air temperature and wind at 850hPa with a horizontal resolution of 0.25° latitude x 0.25° longitude. Initially, the correlation maps of the seasonal anomalies of the two variables upon ISM index are computed and subsequently Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis (EOF) is carried out on individual fields. Under this framework, correlation coefficients between the derived EOF amplitudes and ISM index are calculated and in order to validate the results from the first

Intense Convective Activity Over Northern Bay of Bengal during Late Southwest Monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathew, S.; Venkatesan, R.; Natesan, U.; G, L.

2016-02-01

Warming of the northern Bay of Bengal during late southwest monsoon was very much influenced by the intensity of freshening by river discharges. The inter-annual variability of freshening and associated warming was analyzed for 2011 to 2015, with the help of in-situ data obtained from the moored buoys deployed at specific locations in northern Bay of Bengal. The shoaling of mixed layer depth associated with the advection of freshwaters has favored intense warming and supported convective activity thereby. The year 2011 recorded highest freshening with salinity touched as low as 21.3 p.s.u.; with the heavy river discharges, resulted from intense rainfall over catchment areas of rivers that discharged into the bay, due to positive Indian Ocean Dipole and La-Nina affect. It has resulted in intense warming of the surface temperature by 2°C, which persisted for nearly three weeks. The year 2014 was least fresh, with no signature of freshening and associated warming. The latent heat flux term computed from the moored buoy using the COARE 3.5 algorithm showed increased loss of latent heat flux during the late monsoon associated with the warming. It directly supported increased convective activity and delayed the withdrawal of monsoon activity from Indian sub-continent. Two depressions with intense convective activity formed over bay during September of 2011 which delayed the withdrawal of monsoon by three weeks.

[Influence of compaction pressure and pre-sintering temperature on the machinability of zirconia ceramic].

PubMed

Huang, Huil; Li, Jing; Zhang, Fuqiang; Sun, Jing; Gao, Lian

2011-10-01

In order to make certain the compaction pressure as well as pre-sintering temperature on the machinability of the zirconia ceramic. 3 mol nano-size 3 mol yttria partially stabilized zirconia (3Y-TZP) powder were compacted at different isostatic pressure and sintered at different temperature. The cylindrical surface was traversed using a hard metal tool. Surface and edge quality were checked visually using light stereo microscopy. Pre-sintering temperature had the obviously influence on the machinability of 3Y-TZP. The cutting surface was smooth, and the integrality of edge was better when the pre-sintering temperature was chosen between 800 degrees C to 900 degrees C. Compaction pressure showed only a weak influence on machinability of 3Y-TZP blanks, but the higher compaction pressure result in the poor surface quality. The best machinability of pre-sintered zirconia body was found for 800-900 degrees C pre-sintering temperature, and 200-300 MPa compaction pressure.

High-frequency daily temperature variability in China and its relationship to large-scale circulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, Fu-Ting; Fu, Congbin; Qian, Yun

Two measures of intra-seasonal variability, indicated respectively by standard deviations (SD) and day-to-day (DTD) fluctuations denoted by absolute differences between adjacent 2-day periods, as well as their relationships with large-scale circulation patterns were investigated in China during 1962–2008 on the basis of homogenized daily temperature records from 549 local stations and reanalysis data. Our results show that both the SD and DTD of daily minimum temperatures (Tmin) in summer as well as the minimum and maximum temperatures in winter have been decreasing, while the daily maximum temperature (Tmax) variability in summer is fluctuating more, especially over southern China. In summer,more » an attribution analysis indicates that the intensity of the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) and high-level East Asian Subtropical Jet stream (EASJ) are positively correlated with both SD and DTD, but the correlation coefficients are generally greater with the SD than with the DTD of the daily maximum temperature, Tmax. In contrast, the location of the EASJ shows the opposite correlation pattern, with intensity regarding the correlation with both SD and DTD. In winter, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is negatively correlated with both the SD and DTD of the daily minimum temperature, but its intra-seasonal variability exhibits good agreement with the SD of the Tmin. The Siberian High acts differently with respect to the SD and DTD of the Tmin, demonstrating a regionally consistent positive correlation with the SD. Overall, the large-scale circulation can well explain the intra-seasonal SD, but DTD fluctuations may be more local and impacted by local conditions, such as changes in the temperature itself, the land surface, and so on.« less

Assessment of South Asian Summer Monsoon Simulation in CMIP5-Coupled Climate Models During the Historical Period (1850-2005)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasanna, Venkatraman

2016-04-01

This paper evaluates the performance of 29 state-of-art CMIP5-coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCM) in their representation of regional characteristics of monsoon simulation over South Asia. The AOGCMs, despite their relatively coarse resolution, have shown some reasonable skill in simulating the mean monsoon and precipitation variability over the South Asian monsoon region. However, considerable biases do exist with reference to the observed precipitation and also inter-model differences. The monsoon rainfall and surface flux bias with respect to the observations from the historical run for the period nominally from 1850 to 2005 are discussed in detail. Our results show that the coupled model simulations over South Asia exhibit large uncertainties from one model to the other. The analysis clearly brings out the presence of large systematic biases in coupled simulation of boreal summer precipitation, evaporation, and sea surface temperature (SST) in the Indian Ocean, often exceeding 50 % of the climatological values. Many of the biases are common to many models. Overall, the coupled models need further improvement in realistically portraying boreal summer monsoon over the South Asian monsoon region.

Future changes in Asian summer monsoon precipitation extremes as inferred from 20-km AGCM simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lui, Yuk Sing; Tam, Chi-Yung; Lau, Ngar-Cheung

2018-04-01

This study examines the impacts of climate change on precipitation extremes in the Asian monsoon region during boreal summer, based on simulations from the 20-km Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation model. The model can capture the summertime monsoon rainfall, with characteristics similar to those from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation. By comparing the 2075-2099 with the present-day climate simulations, there is a robust increase of the mean rainfall in many locations due to a warmer climate. Over southeastern China, the Baiu rainband, Bay of Bengal and central India, extreme precipitation rates are also enhanced in the future, which can be inferred from increases of the 95th percentile of daily precipitation, the maximum accumulated precipitation in 5 consecutive days, the simple daily precipitation intensity index, and the scale parameter of the fitted gamma distribution. In these regions, with the exception of the Baiu rainband, most of these metrics give a fractional change of extreme rainfall per degree increase of the lower-tropospheric temperature of 5 to 8.5% K-1, roughly consistent with the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. However, over the Baiu area extreme precipitation change scales as 3.5% K-1 only. We have also stratified the rainfall data into those associated with tropical cyclones (TC) and those with other weather systems. The AGCM gives an increase of the accumulated TC rainfall over southeastern China, and a decrease in southern Japan in the future climate. The latter can be attributed to suppressed TC occurrence in southern Japan, whereas increased accumulated rainfall over southeastern China is due to more intense TC rain rate under global warming. Overall, non-TC weather systems are the main contributor to enhanced precipitation extremes in various locations. In the future, TC activities over southeastern China tend to further

Large-scale control of the Arabian Sea monsoon inversion in August

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Chi-Hua; Wang, S.-Y. Simon; Hsu, Huang-Hsiung

2017-12-01

The summer monsoon inversion in the Arabian Sea is characterized by a large amount of low clouds and August as the peak season. Atmospheric stratification associated with the monsoon inversion has been considered a local system influenced by the advancement of the India-Pakistan monsoon. Empirical and numerical evidence from this study suggests that the Arabian Sea monsoon inversion is linked to a broader-scale monsoon evolution across the African Sahel, South Asia, and East Asia-Western North Pacific (WNP), rather than being a mere byproduct of the India-Pakistan monsoon progression. In August, the upper-tropospheric anticyclone in South Asia extends sideways corresponding with the enhanced precipitation in the subtropical WNP, equatorial Indian Ocean, and African Sahel while the middle part of this anticyclone weakens over the Arabian Sea. The increased heating in the adjacent monsoon systems creates a suppression effect on the Arabian Sea, suggesting an apparent competition among the Africa-Asia-WNP monsoon subsystems. The peak Sahel rainfall in August, together with enhanced heating in the equatorial Indian Ocean, produces a critical effect on strengthening the Arabian Sea thermal inversion. By contrast, the WNP monsoon onset which signifies the eastward expansion of the subtropical Asian monsoon heating might play a secondary or opposite role in the Arabian Sea monsoon inversion.

Dirtier Air from a Weaker Monsoon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chin, Mian

2012-01-01

The level of air pollution in China has much increased in the past decades, causing serious health problems. Among the main pollutants are aerosols, also known as particulate matter: tiny, invisible particles that are suspended in the air. These particles contribute substantially to premature mortality associated with cardiopulmonary diseases and lung cancer1. The increase of the aerosol level in China has been commonly attributed to the fast rise in pollutant emissions from the rapid economic development in the region. However, writing in Geophysical Research Letters, Jianlei Zhu and colleagues2 tell a different side of the story: using a chemical transport model and observation data, they show that the decadal scale weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon has also contributed to the increase of aerosol concentrations in China. The life cycle of atmospheric aerosols starts with its emission or formation in the atmosphere. Some aerosol components such as dust, soot and sea salt are emitted directly as particles to the atmosphere, but others are formed there by way of photochemical reactions. For example, sulphate and nitrate aerosols are produced from their respective precursor gases, sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides. Aerosol particles can be transported away from their source locations by winds or vertical motion of the air. Eventually, they are removed from the atmosphere by means of dry deposition and wet scavenging by precipitation. Measurements generally show that aerosol concentrations over Asia are lowest during the summer monsoon season3, because intense rainfall efficiently removes them from the air. The East Asian summer monsoon extends over subtropics and mid-latitudes. Its rainfall tends to concentrate in rain belts that stretch out for many thousands of kilometres and affect China, Korea, Japan and the surrounding area. Observations suggest that the East Asian summer monsoon circulation and precipitation have been in decline since the 1970s4. In

Radiative and thermodynamic responses to aerosol extinction profiles during the pre-monsoon month over South Asia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Feng, Y.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Coulter, R.

Aerosol radiative effects and thermodynamic responses over South Asia are examined with the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) for March 2012. Model results of aerosol optical depths (AODs) and extinction profiles are analyzed and compared to satellite retrievals and two ground-based lidars located in northern India. The WRF-Chem model is found to heavily underestimate the AOD during the simulated pre-monsoon month and about 83 % of the model's low bias is due to aerosol extinctions below ~2 km. Doubling the calculated aerosol extinctions below 850 hPa generates much better agreement with the observed AOD and extinction profilesmore » averaged over South Asia. To separate the effect of absorption and scattering properties, two runs were conducted: in one run (Case I), the calculated scattering and absorption coefficients were increased proportionally, while in the second run (Case II) only the calculated aerosol scattering coefficient was increased. With the same AOD and extinction profiles, the two runs produce significantly different radiative effects over land and oceans. On the regional mean basis, Case I generates 48 % more heating in the atmosphere and 21 % more dimming at the surface than Case II. Case I also produces stronger cooling responses over the land from the longwave radiation adjustment and boundary layer mixing. These rapid adjustments offset the stronger radiative heating in Case I and lead to an overall lower-troposphere cooling up to -0.7 K day −1, which is smaller than that in Case II. Over the ocean, direct radiative effects dominate the heating rate changes in the lower atmosphere lacking such surface and lower atmosphere adjustments due to fixed sea surface temperature, and the strongest atmospheric warming is obtained in Case I. Consequently, atmospheric dynamics (boundary layer heights and meridional circulation) and thermodynamic processes (water vapor and cloudiness) are shown to respond

Climate Expressions in Cellulose Isotopologues Over the Southeast Asian Monsoon Domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herzog, M. G.; LeGrande, A. N.; Anchukaitis, K. J.

2013-12-01

Southeast Asia experiences a highly variant climate, strongly influenced by the Southeast Asian monsoon. Oxygen isotopes in the alpha cellulose of tree rings can be used as a proxy measure of climate, but it is not clear which parameter (precipitation, temperature, water vapor, etc) is the most influential. Earlier forward models using observed meteorological data have been successful simulating tree ring cellulose oxygen isotopes in the tropics. However, by creating a cellulose oxygen isotope model which uses input data from GISS ModelE climate runs, we are able to reduce model variability and integrate δ18O in tree ring cellulose over the entire monsoon domain for the past millennium. Simulated timescales of δ18O in cellulose show a consistent annual cycle, allowing confidence in the identification of interdecadal and interannual climate variability. By comparing paleoclimate data with Global Circulation Model (GCM) outputs and a forward tree cellulose δ18O model, this study explores how δ18O can be used as a proxy measure of the monsoon on both local and regional scales. Simulated δ18O in soil water and δ18O in water vapor were found to explain the most variability in the paleoclimate data. Precipitation amount and temperature held little significance. Our results suggest that δ18O in tree cellulose is most influenced by regional controls directly related to cellulose production. top: monthly modeled output for d18O cellulose center: annually averaged model output of d18O cellulose bottom: observed monthly paleoproxy data for d18O cellulose

Systematic Biases of Present-day's Land Surface Air Temperature and Precipitation and Associated Tendency of Future Projection in the Asia Monsoon of the CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ose, T.

2016-12-01

Seasonally varying land surface air temperature (SAT) is basically responsible for the occurrence of the Asia Monsoon precipitation whereas the precipitation may play more important roles in the appearance and variability of the Asia Monsoon circulations. A simple and basic analysis on model biases of land SAT simulations over the Eurasian Continent is done to find necessary improvements of land surface treatment in the models, their relationship with model precipitation and their influences to future projections. Specifically, the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis is applied to land SATs of the CMIP5 present-day's simulation (the June-July-August average during 1975-1999) ensemble. Associated biases of precipitation and other Asia Monsoon elements are obtained by the regression method onto the obtained EOF coefficients. The first EOF is the SAT bias over the dry region of the Eurasia. Positive deviations of the 1st EOF coefficient indicate northwestward shift of the Asia Monsoon System; northwestward (or inner-continent-ward) shifts of precipitation, the Tibetan High, the low-level jet, the Pacific High and so on. The second EOF is the SAT bias over the northeast Eurasia. It is interesting that warmer land SAT bias over the northeast Asia is related to more wet condition over East Asia like in early summer; southward shift of westerly jet and precipitation band in East Asia. The third one indicates the SAT bias over the Eurasian region between the 1st and 2nd EOF SAT regions. However, this EOF may be characterized by the accompanied model precipitation bias over the subtropical Northwest Pacific like in late summer; northeastward shift of upper westerly jet in the eastern Asia and the weak Pacific High in the subtropical Northwest Pacific. The most intrigued feature is a connection of the 3rd EOF with the future change of SAT in the extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere in the CMIP5 projections. This fact may indicate that precipitation climatology in the

The role of potential vorticity anomalies in the Somali Jet on Indian Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rai, P.; Joshi, M.; Dimri, A. P.; Turner, A. G.

2018-06-01

The climate of the Indian subcontinent is dominated by rainfall arising from the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) during June to September. Intraseasonal variability during the monsoon is characterized by periods of heavy rainfall interspersed by drier periods, known as active and break events respectively. Understanding and predicting such events is of vital importance for forecasting human impacts such as water resources. The Somali Jet is a key regional feature of the monsoon circulation. In the present study, we find that the spatial structure of Somali Jet potential vorticity (PV) anomalies varies considerably during active and break periods. Analysis of these anomalies shows a mechanism whereby sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies propagate north/northwestwards through the Arabian Sea, caused by a positive feedback loop joining anomalies in SST, convection, modification of PV by diabatic heating and mixing in the atmospheric boundary layer, wind-stress curl, and ocean upwelling processes. The feedback mechanism is consistent with observed variability in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system on timescales of approximately 20 days. This research suggests that better understanding and prediction of monsoon intraseasonal variability in the South Asian monsoon may be gained by analysis of the day-to-day dynamical evolution of PV in the Somali Jet.

The role of potential vorticity anomalies in the Somali Jet on Indian Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rai, P.; Joshi, M.; Dimri, A. P.; Turner, A. G.

2017-08-01

The climate of the Indian subcontinent is dominated by rainfall arising from the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) during June to September. Intraseasonal variability during the monsoon is characterized by periods of heavy rainfall interspersed by drier periods, known as active and break events respectively. Understanding and predicting such events is of vital importance for forecasting human impacts such as water resources. The Somali Jet is a key regional feature of the monsoon circulation. In the present study, we find that the spatial structure of Somali Jet potential vorticity (PV) anomalies varies considerably during active and break periods. Analysis of these anomalies shows a mechanism whereby sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies propagate north/northwestwards through the Arabian Sea, caused by a positive feedback loop joining anomalies in SST, convection, modification of PV by diabatic heating and mixing in the atmospheric boundary layer, wind-stress curl, and ocean upwelling processes. The feedback mechanism is consistent with observed variability in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system on timescales of approximately 20 days. This research suggests that better understanding and prediction of monsoon intraseasonal variability in the South Asian monsoon may be gained by analysis of the day-to-day dynamical evolution of PV in the Somali Jet.

Potential Predictability of the Monsoon Subclimate Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Song; Lau, K.-M.; Chang, Y.; Schubert, S.

1999-01-01

While El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon can be predicted with some success using coupled oceanic-atmospheric models, the skill of predicting the tropical monsoons is low regardless of the methods applied. The low skill of monsoon prediction may be either because the monsoons are not defined appropriately or because they are not influenced significantly by boundary forcing. The latter characterizes the importance of internal dynamics in monsoon variability and leads to many eminent chaotic features of the monsoons. In this study, we analyze results from nine AMIP-type ensemble experiments with the NASA/GEOS-2 general circulation model to assess the potential predictability of the tropical climate system. We will focus on the variability and predictability of tropical monsoon rainfall on seasonal-to-interannual time scales. It is known that the tropical climate is more predictable than its extratropical counterpart. However, predictability is different from one climate subsystem to another within the tropics. It is important to understand the differences among these subsystems in order to increase our skill of seasonal-to-interannual prediction. We assess potential predictability by comparing the magnitude of internal and forced variances as defined by Harzallah and Sadourny (1995). The internal variance measures the spread among the various ensemble members. The forced part of rainfall variance is determined by the magnitude of the ensemble mean rainfall anomaly and by the degree of consistency of the results from the various experiments.

Monsoons: Processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webster, P. J.; Magaña, V. O.; Palmer, T. N.; Shukla, J.; Thomas, R. A.; Yanai, M.; Yasunari, T.

1998-06-01

The Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program sought to determine the predictability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. The World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP) Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System (GOALS) program seeks to explore predictability of the global climate system through investigation of the major planetary heat sources and sinks, and interactions between them. The Asian-Australian monsoon system, which undergoes aperiodic and high amplitude variations on intraseasonal, annual, biennial and interannual timescales is a major focus of GOALS. Empirical seasonal forecasts of the monsoon have been made with moderate success for over 100 years. More recent modeling efforts have not been successful. Even simulation of the mean structure of the Asian monsoon has proven elusive and the observed ENSO-monsoon relationships has been difficult to replicate. Divergence in simulation skill occurs between integrations by different models or between members of ensembles of the same model. This degree of spread is surprising given the relative success of empirical forecast techniques. Two possible explanations are presented: difficulty in modeling the monsoon regions and nonlinear error growth due to regional hydrodynamical instabilities. It is argued that the reconciliation of these explanations is imperative for prediction of the monsoon to be improved. To this end, a thorough description of observed monsoon variability and the physical processes that are thought to be important is presented. Prospects of improving prediction and some strategies that may help achieve improvement are discussed.

Asynchronous Patterns of East Asian Monsoon Climate Proxies during the Past 28 000 Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruan, Y.; Li, L.; Jia, G.; He, J.; Dong, L.; Ma, X.; Shi, J.; Wang, H.

2015-12-01

The monsoon system serves as a "bridge" in the atmosphere; it connects the circulation between high and low latitudes, influencing the most densely populated regions on Earth. However, what role it played in the geological history is still elusive despite its significance. The climate of South China Sea and the ambient land masses are dominated by the East Asian monsoon, composed of the temperature-cooling East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and the rain-bearing East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). In this study, high-resolution sea surface temperature (SST), terrestrial input and humidity changes since ~28 ka were reconstructed based on alkenones and long chain n-alkanes records in core MD12-3428 in northern South China Sea. Our results demonstrated complex and dynamic paleoclimatic situations since the last glacial superimposed on the overall glacial-interglacial trend. During the last deglacial, the rising of the sea level can be dated back to 17 ka and ended at ~12 ka, according to the gradual decrease of long chain n-alkanes concentrations. However, the SST warming began at ~15 ka (~2 000 years after the initial sea level uplift) and achieved a relatively stable state in mid-Holocene (~6 000 years after the sea level stablization). The humidity varibility linked with EASM based on C31/C27 and ACL record indicated highly humid conditions within the Bølling/Allerød (B/A) period, followed by a rapid drying towards the glacial level during Younger Dryas (YD). EASM gradually strengthened after YD when the sea level had run up to almost the present state, and weakened after ~6 ka when sea level and SST both reached the plateau. These large fluctuations of C31/C27 and ACL implied that humidity was more sensitive to climate events since the last deglacial when compared with SST and sea level. The asynchronous patterns of East Asian monsoon climate proxies in the present work indicated the complex heat transport and atmospheric circulation between low and high latitudes.

Asian monsoons in a late Eocene greenhouse world.

PubMed

Licht, A; van Cappelle, M; Abels, H A; Ladant, J-B; Trabucho-Alexandre, J; France-Lanord, C; Donnadieu, Y; Vandenberghe, J; Rigaudier, T; Lécuyer, C; Terry, D; Adriaens, R; Boura, A; Guo, Z; Soe, Aung Naing; Quade, J; Dupont-Nivet, G; Jaeger, J-J

2014-09-25

The strong present-day Asian monsoons are thought to have originated between 25 and 22 million years (Myr) ago, driven by Tibetan-Himalayan uplift. However, the existence of older Asian monsoons and their response to enhanced greenhouse conditions such as those in the Eocene period (55-34 Myr ago) are unknown because of the paucity of well-dated records. Here we show late Eocene climate records revealing marked monsoon-like patterns in rainfall and wind south and north of the Tibetan-Himalayan orogen. This is indicated by low oxygen isotope values with strong seasonality in gastropod shells and mammal teeth from Myanmar, and by aeolian dust deposition in northwest China. Our climate simulations support modern-like Eocene monsoonal rainfall and show that a reinforced hydrological cycle responding to enhanced greenhouse conditions counterbalanced the negative effect of lower Tibetan relief on precipitation. These strong monsoons later weakened with the global shift to icehouse conditions 34 Myr ago.

Local and remote impacts of aerosol species on Indian summer monsoon rainfall in a GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, A. G.; Guo, L.; Highwood, E.

2016-12-01

The HadGEM2 AGCM is used to determine the most important anthropogenic aerosols in the Indian monsoon using experiments in which observed trends in individual aerosol species are imposed. Sulphur dioxide (SD) emissions are shown to impact rainfall more strongly than black carbon (BC) aerosols, causing reduced rainfall especially over northern India. Significant perturbations due to BC are not noted until its emissions are scaled up in a sensitivity test, resulting in rainfall increases over northern India due to the Elevated Heat Pump mechanism, enhancing convection during the premonsoon and bringing forward the monsoon onset. Secondly, the impact of anthropogenic aerosols is compared to that of increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations and observed sea-surface temperature (SST) warming. The tropospheric temperature gradient driving the monsoon shows weakening when forced by either SD or imposed SST trends. However the observed SST trend is dominated by warming in the deep tropics; when the component of SST trend related to aerosol emissions is removed, further warming is found in the extratropical northern hemisphere that tends to offset monsoon weakening. This suggests caution is needed when using SST forcing as a proxy for greenhouse warming. Finally, aerosol emissions are decomposed into those from the Indian region and those elsewhere, in pairs of experiments with SD and BC. Both local and remote aerosol emissions are found to lead to rainfall changes over India; for SD, remote aerosols contribute around 75% of the rainfall decrease over India, while for BC the remote forcing is even more dominant.

Use of a Weather Generator for analysis of projections of future daily temperature and its validation with climate change indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Piazza, A.; Cordano, E.; Eccel, E.

2012-04-01

The issue of climate change detection is considered a major challenge. In particular, high temporal resolution climate change scenarios are required in the evaluation of the effects of climate change on agricultural management (crop suitability, yields, risk assessment, etc.) energy production and water management. In this work, a "Weather Generator" technique was used for downscaling climate change scenarios for temperature. An R package (RMAWGEN, Cordano and Eccel, 2011 - available on http://cran.r-project.org) was developed aiming to generate synthetic daily weather conditions by using the theory of vectorial auto-regressive models (VAR). The VAR model was chosen for its ability in maintaining the temporal and spatial correlations among variables. In particular, observed time series of daily maximum and minimum temperature are transformed into "new" normally-distributed variable time series which are used to calibrate the parameters of a VAR model by using ordinary least square methods. Therefore the implemented algorithm, applied to monthly mean climatic values downscaled by Global Climate Model predictions, can generate several stochastic daily scenarios where the statistical consistency among series is saved. Further details are present in RMAWGEN documentation. An application is presented here by using a dataset with daily temperature time series recorded in 41 different sites of Trentino region for the period 1958-2010. Temperature time series were pre-processed to fill missing values (by a site-specific calibrated Inverse Distance Weighting algorithm, corrected with elevation) and to remove inhomogeneities. Several climatic indices were taken into account, useful for several impact assessment applications, and their time trends within the time series were analyzed. The indices go from the more classical ones, as annual mean temperatures, seasonal mean temperatures and their anomalies (from the reference period 1961-1990) to the climate change indices

See-saw relationship of the Holocene East Asian-Australian summer monsoon.

PubMed

Eroglu, Deniz; McRobie, Fiona H; Ozken, Ibrahim; Stemler, Thomas; Wyrwoll, Karl-Heinz; Breitenbach, Sebastian F M; Marwan, Norbert; Kurths, Jürgen

2016-09-26

The East Asian-Indonesian-Australian summer monsoon (EAIASM) links the Earth's hemispheres and provides a heat source that drives global circulation. At seasonal and inter-seasonal timescales, the summer monsoon of one hemisphere is linked via outflows from the winter monsoon of the opposing hemisphere. Long-term phase relationships between the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and the Indonesian-Australian summer monsoon (IASM) are poorly understood, raising questions of long-term adjustments to future greenhouse-triggered climate change and whether these changes could 'lock in' possible IASM and EASM phase relationships in a region dependent on monsoonal rainfall. Here we show that a newly developed nonlinear time series analysis technique allows confident identification of strong versus weak monsoon phases at millennial to sub-centennial timescales. We find a see-saw relationship over the last 9,000 years-with strong and weak monsoons opposingly phased and triggered by solar variations. Our results provide insights into centennial- to millennial-scale relationships within the wider EAIASM regime.

See–saw relationship of the Holocene East Asian–Australian summer monsoon

PubMed Central

Eroglu, Deniz; McRobie, Fiona H.; Ozken, Ibrahim; Stemler, Thomas; Wyrwoll, Karl-Heinz; Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.; Marwan, Norbert; Kurths, Jürgen

2016-01-01

The East Asian–Indonesian–Australian summer monsoon (EAIASM) links the Earth's hemispheres and provides a heat source that drives global circulation. At seasonal and inter-seasonal timescales, the summer monsoon of one hemisphere is linked via outflows from the winter monsoon of the opposing hemisphere. Long-term phase relationships between the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and the Indonesian–Australian summer monsoon (IASM) are poorly understood, raising questions of long-term adjustments to future greenhouse-triggered climate change and whether these changes could ‘lock in' possible IASM and EASM phase relationships in a region dependent on monsoonal rainfall. Here we show that a newly developed nonlinear time series analysis technique allows confident identification of strong versus weak monsoon phases at millennial to sub-centennial timescales. We find a see–saw relationship over the last 9,000 years—with strong and weak monsoons opposingly phased and triggered by solar variations. Our results provide insights into centennial- to millennial-scale relationships within the wider EAIASM regime. PMID:27666662

Biweekly Sea Surface Temperature over the South China Sea and its association with the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaid, B. H.

2017-02-01

The association of the biweekly intraseasonal (BWI) oscillation in the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) over the South China Sea (SCS) and the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon is authenticated using version 4 the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager data (SST and rain) and heat fluxes from Ocean Atmosphere Flux project data during 1998-2012. The results suggest that the SCS involves ocean-atmosphere coupling on biweekly timescales. The positive biweekly SST anomalies lead the rain anomalies over the SCS by 3 days, with a significant correlation coefficient ( r = 0.6, at 99 % significance levels) between the SST-rain anomalies. It is evident from lead/lag correlation between biweekly SST and zonal wind shear that warm ocean surface induced by wind shear may contribute to a favorable condition of the convective activity over the SCS. The present study suggests that ocean-to-atmospheric processes induced by the BWI oscillation in the SCS SST results in enhanced sea level pressure and surface shortwave radiation flux during the summer monsoon. Besides, it is observed that the SCS BWI oscillation in the changes of SST causes a feedback in the atmosphere by modifying the atmospheric instability. This suggests that the active/break biweekly cycle of the SST over the SCS is related by sea level pressure, surface heat fluxes and atmospheric instability. The potential findings here indicate that the biweekly SST over the SCS play an important role in the eastward and the southward propagation of the biweekly anomalies in the Western North Pacific.

Response of the Asian summer monsoons to idealized precession and obliquity forcing in a set of GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bosmans, J. H. C.; Erb, M. P.; Dolan, A. M.; Drijfhout, S. S.; Tuenter, E.; Hilgen, F. J.; Edge, D.; Pope, J. O.; Lourens, L. J.

2018-05-01

We examine the response of the Indian and East Asian summer monsoons to separate precession and obliquity forcing, using a set of fully coupled high-resolution models for the first time: EC-Earth, GFDL CM2.1, CESM and HadCM3. We focus on the effect of insolation changes on monsoon precipitation and underlying circulation changes, and find strong model agreement despite a range of model physics, parameterization, and resolution. Our results show increased summer monsoon precipitation at times of increased summer insolation, i.e. minimum precession and maximum obliquity, accompanied by a redistribution of precipitation and convection from ocean to land. Southerly monsoon winds over East Asia are strengthened as a consequence of an intensified land-sea pressure gradient. The response of the Indian summer monsoon is less straightforward. Over south-east Asia low surface pressure is less pronounced and winds over the northern Indian Ocean are directed more westward. An Indian Ocean Dipole pattern emerges, with increased precipitation and convection over the western Indian Ocean. Increased temperatures occur during minimum precession over the Indian Ocean, but not during maximum obliquity when insolation is reduced over the tropics and southern hemisphere during northern hemisphere summer. Evaporation is reduced over the northern Indian Ocean, which together with increased precipitation over the western Indian Ocean dampens the increase of monsoonal precipitation over the continent. The southern tropical Indian Ocean as well as the western tropical Pacific (for precession) act as a moisture source for enhanced monsoonal precipitation. The models are in closest agreement for precession-induced changes, with more model spread for obliquity-induced changes, possibly related to a smaller insolation forcing. Our results indicate that a direct response of the Indian and East Asian summer monsoons to insolation forcing is possible, in line with speleothem records but in

Impact of atmospheric circulation types on southwest Asian dust and Indian summer monsoon rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaskaoutis, D. G.; Houssos, E. E.; Solmon, F.; Legrand, M.; Rashki, A.; Dumka, U. C.; Francois, P.; Gautam, R.; Singh, R. P.

2018-03-01

This study examines the meteorological feedback on dust aerosols and rainfall over the Arabian Sea and India during the summer monsoon using satellite data, re-analysis and a regional climate model. Based on days with excess aerosol loading over the central Ganges basin during May - September, two distinct atmospheric circulation types (weather clusters) are identified, which are associated with different dust-aerosol and rainfall distributions over south Asia, highlighting the role of meteorology on dust emissions and monsoon rainfall. Each cluster is characterized by different patterns of mean sea level pressure (MSLP), geopotential height at 700 hPa (Z700) and wind fields at 1000 hPa and at 700 hPa, thus modulating changes in dust-aerosol loading over the Arabian Sea. One cluster is associated with deepening of the Indian/Pakistan thermal low leading to (i) increased cyclonicity and thermal convection over northwestern India and Arabian Peninsula, (ii) intensification of the southwest monsoon off the Horn of Africa, iii) increase in dust emissions from Rub-Al-Khali and Somalian deserts, (iv) excess dust accumulation over the Arabian Sea and, (v) strengthening of the convergence of humid air masses and larger precipitation over Indian landmass compared to the other cluster. The RegCM4.4 model simulations for dust-aerosol and precipitation distributions support the meteorological fields and satellite observations, while the precipitation over India is positively correlated with the aerosol loading over the Arabian Sea on daily basis for both weather clusters. This study highlights the key role of meteorology and atmospheric dynamics on dust life cycle and rainfall over the monsoon-influenced south Asia.

Variation in the daily rhythm of body temperature of free-living Arabian oryx (Oryx leucoryx): does water limitation drive heterothermy?

PubMed

Hetem, Robyn Sheila; Strauss, Willem Maartin; Fick, Linda Gayle; Maloney, Shane Kevin; Meyer, Leith Carl Rodney; Shobrak, Mohammed; Fuller, Andrea; Mitchell, Duncan

2010-10-01

Heterothermy, a variability in body temperature beyond the limits of homeothermy, has been advanced as a key adaptation of Arabian oryx (Oryx leucoryx) to their arid-zone life. We measured body temperature using implanted data loggers, for a 1-year period, in five oryx free-living in the deserts of Saudi Arabia. As predicted for adaptive heterothermy, during hot months compared to cooler months, not only were maximum daily body temperatures higher (41.1 ± 0.3 vs. 39.7 ± 0.1°C, P = 0.0002) but minimum daily body temperatures also were lower (36.1 ± 0.3 vs. 36.8 ± 0.2°C, P = 0.04), resulting in a larger daily amplitude of the body temperature rhythm (5.0 ± 0.5 vs. 2.9 ± 0.2°C, P = 0.0007), while mean daily body temperature rose by only 0.4°C. The maximum daily amplitude of the body temperature rhythm reached 7.7°C for two of our oryx during the hot-dry period, the largest amplitude ever recorded for a large mammal. Body temperature variability was influenced not only by ambient temperature but also water availability, with oryx displaying larger daily amplitudes of the body temperature rhythm during warm-dry months compared to warm-wet months (3.6 ± 0.6 vs. 2.3 ± 0.3°C, P = 0.005), even though ambient temperatures were the same. Free-living Arabian oryx therefore employ heterothermy greater than that recorded in any other large mammal, but water limitation, rather than high ambient temperature, seems to be the primary driver of this heterothermy.

Spatiotemporal variability of rainfall extremes in monsoonal climates - examples from the South American Monsoon and the Indian Monsoon Systems (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bookhagen, B.; Boers, N.; Marwan, N.; Malik, N.; Kurths, J.

2013-12-01

Monsoonal rainfall is the crucial component for more than half of the world's population. Runoff associated with monsoon systems provide water resources for agriculture, hydropower, drinking-water generation, recreation, and social well-being and are thus a fundamental part of human society. However, monsoon systems are highly stochastic and show large variability on various timescales. Here, we use various rainfall datasets to characterize spatiotemporal rainfall patterns using traditional as well as new approaches emphasizing nonlinear spatial correlations from a complex networks perspective. Our analyses focus on the South American (SAMS) and Indian (ISM) Monsoon Systems on the basis of Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) using precipitation radar and passive-microwave products with horizontal spatial resolutions of ~5x5 km^2 (products 2A25, 2B31) and 25x25 km^2 (3B42) and interpolated rainfall-gauge data for the ISM (APHRODITE, 25x25 km^2). The eastern slopes of the Andes of South America and the southern front of the Himalaya are characterized by significant orographic barriers that intersect with the moisture-bearing, monsoonal wind systems. We demonstrate that topography exerts a first-order control on peak rainfall amounts on annual timescales in both mountain belts. Flooding in the downstream regions is dominantly caused by heavy rainfall storms that propagate deep into the mountain range and reach regions that are arid and without vegetation cover promoting rapid runoff. These storms exert a significantly different spatial distribution than average-rainfall conditions and assessing their recurrence intervals and prediction is key in understanding flooding for these regions. An analysis of extreme-value distributions of our high-spatial resolution data reveal that semi-arid areas are characterized by low-frequency/high-magnitude events (i.e., are characterized by a ';heavy tail' distribution), whereas regions with high mean annual rainfall have a

Characteristics and seasonal variation of hydrochemistry in the Tangra Yumco basin, central Tibetan Plateau, and its response to Indian summer monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Junbo; Qiao, Baojin; Huang, Lei; Zhu, Liping

2016-04-01

water and river water is much higher during Indian summer monsoon (ISM) period than the pre-monsoon period. The TDS concentration of lake water shows a rapid increase from early August and reaches 2.5 times of pre-monsoon period within one month indicating that due to the rise of temperature and increase of rainfall, rock weathering is enhanced, thus the runoff could take much more chemical composition into the river and the lake. During the post-monsoon period, the TDS of lake water is still keeping in a high level as in monsoon period, probably resulting from the balance between concentration of ions due to lake water loss and decrease of terrestrial ion input. K+ and Cl- of rainfall may originate from evaporation of lake water and mineral aerosols, and the dissolved carbonates are responsible for the chemical composition of rainfall water.

Monsoonal influence on variation of hydrochemistry and isotopic signatures: Implications for associated arsenic release in groundwater

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Majumder, Santanu; Datta, Saugata; Nath, Bibhash; Neidhardt, Harald; Sarkar, Simita; Roman-Ross, Gabriela; Berner, Zsolt; Hidalgo, Manuela; Chatterjee, Debankur; Chatterjee, Debashis

2016-04-01

The present study examines the groundwater and surface water geochemistry of two different geomorphic domains within the Chakdaha block, West Bengal, in an attempt to decipher potential influences of groundwater abstraction on the hydrochemical evolution of the aquifer, the effect of different water inputs (monsoon rain, irrigation and downward percolation from surface water impoundments) to the groundwater system and concomitant As release. A low-land flood plain and a natural levee have been selected for this purpose. Although the stable isotopic signatures of oxygen (δ18O) and hydrogen (δ2H) are largely controlled by local precipitation, the isotopic composition falls sub-parallel to the Global Meteoric Water Line (GMWL). The Cl/Br molar ratio indicates vertical recharge into the wells within the flood plain area, especially during the post-monsoon season, while influences of both evaporation and vertical mixing are visible within the natural levee wells. Increase in mean DOC concentrations (from 1.33 to 6.29 mg/L), from pre- to post-monsoon season, indicates possible inflow of organic carbon to the aquifer during the monsoonal recharge. Concomitant increase in AsT, Fe(II) and HCO3- highlights a possible initial episode of reductive dissolution of As-rich Fe-oxyhydroxides. The subsequent sharp increase in the mean As(III) proportions (by 223%), particularly in the flood plain samples during the post-monsoon season, which is accompanied by a slight increase in mean AsT (7%) may refer to anaerobic microbial degradation of DOC coupled with the reduction of As(V) to As(III) without triggering additional As release from the aquifer sediments.

The East African monsoon system: Seasonal climatologies and recent variations: Chapter 10

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Hoell, Andrew; Shukla, Shraddhanand; Husak, Gregory J.; Michaelsen, J.

2016-01-01

This chapter briefly reviews the complex climatological cycle of the East African monsoon system, paying special attention to its connection to the larger Indo-Pacific-Asian monsoon cycle. We examine the seasonal monsoon cycle, and briefly explore recent circulation changes. The spatial footprint of our analysis corresponds with the “Greater Horn of Africa” (GHA) region, extending from Tanzania in the south to Yemen and Sudan in the north. During boreal winter, when northeast trade winds flow across the northwest Indian Ocean and the equatorial moisture transports over the Indian Ocean exhibit strong westerly mean flows over the equatorial Indian Ocean, East African precipitation is limited to a few highland areas. As the Indian monsoon circulation transitions during boreal spring, the trade winds over the northwest Indian Ocean reverse, and East African moisture convergence supports the “long” rains. In boreal summer, the southwesterly Somali Jet intensifies over eastern Africa. Subsidence forms along the westward flank of this jet, shutting down precipitation over eastern portions of East Africa. In boreal fall, the Jet subsides, but easterly moisture transports support rainfall in limited regions of the eastern Horn of Africa. We use regressions with the trend mode of global sea surface temperatures to explore potential changes in the seasonal monsoon circulations. Significant reductions in total precipitable water are indicated in Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Yemen, with moisture transports broadly responding in ways that reinforce the climatological moisture transports over the Indian Ocean. Over Kenya, southern Ethiopia and Somalia, regressions with velocity potential indicate increased convergence aloft. Near the surface, this convergence appears to manifest as a surface high pressure system that modifies moisture transports in these countries as well as Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, and Burundi. An analysis

[Influence of daily ambient temperature on mortality and years of life lost in Chongqing].

PubMed

Li, Jing; Luo, Shuquan; Ding, Xianbin; Yang, Jun; Li, Jing; Liu, Xiaobo; Gao, Jinghong; Xu, Lei; Tang, Wenge; Liu, Qiyong

2016-03-01

To evaluate the influence of extreme ambient temperature on mortality and years of life lost (YLL) in Chongqing. The daily mortality, meteorology and air pollution index data in Chongqing from the 1(st) January 2010 to the 31(st) December 2013 were collected. Distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to assess the influence of daily ambient temperature on daily number of deaths and daily YLL respectively. The delayed and cumulative effects of extreme temperature on sex, age, and cause-specific mortality were also assessed. The relationships between ambient temperature and non-accidental, cardiovascular disease and respiratory disease mortalities and YLL were U-shaped or W-shaped. The effect of heat was obvious on that day, peaked on day 7, and lasted for two weeks, whereas the effect of cold was obvious a week later and lasted for a month. As 1 ℃ increase of ambient temperature, the cumulative relative risks (CRR) of high temperature across lag 0-7 days on non-accidental, respiratory disease and cardiovascular disease mortalities were 1.05 (95%CI: 1.03-1.07), 1.08 (95%CI: 1.05-1.11) and 1.05 (95%CI: 1.01-1.09) respectively. The effects of heat on YLL for each cause were 23.81 (95%CI: 12.31-35.31), 14.34 (95%CI: 8.98-19.70) and 4.43 (95%CI: 1.64-7.21), respectively. On cold days, 1 ℃ decrease of ambient temperature was correlated with an increase in CRR of 1.06 (95%CI: 1.04-1.08), 1.09 (95%CI:1.06-1.12) and 1.06 (95%CI: 1.02-1.11) from lag 0 to 14 for non-accidental, respiratory disease and cardiovascular disease mortalities, respectively. The estimated YLL were 23.34 (95%CI: 10.04-36.64), 16.39 (95%CI: 10.19-22.59) and 2.61 (95%CI: -0.61-5.82). People aged ≥65 years tend to have higher CRR and YLL than those aged <65 years. On high temperature days, the CRR in women was higher than that in men, while the YLL in women was lower than that in men. On low temperature days, both the CRR and YLL in women were higher than those in men. Both high and low

Relationship of the South Asian Monsoon and Regional Drought with Distinct Equatorial Pacific SST Patterns on Interannual and Decadal Timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez, M.; Ummenhofer, C.; Anchukaitis, K. J.

2014-12-01

The Asian monsoon system influences the lives of over 60% of the planet's population, with widespread socioeconomic effects resulting from weakening or failure of monsoon rains. Spatially broad and temporally extended drought episodes have been known to dramatically influence human history, including the Strange Parallels Drought in the mid-18th century. Here, we explore the dynamics of sustained monsoon failure using the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas - a high-resolution network of hydro-climatically sensitive tree-ring records - and a 1300-year pre-industrial control run of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Spatial drought patterns in the instrumental and model-based Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) during years with extremely weakened South Asian monsoon are similar to those reconstructed during the Strange Parallels Drought in the MADA. We further explore how the large-scale Indo-Pacific climate during weakened South Asian monsoon differs between interannual and decadal timescales. The Strange Parallels Drought pattern is observed during March-April-May primarily over Southeast Asia, with decreased precipitation and reduced moisture fluxes, while anomalies in June-July-August are confined to the Indian subcontinent during both individual and decadal events. Individual years with anomalous drying exhibit canonical El Niño conditions over the eastern equatorial Pacific and associated shifts in the Walker circulation, while decadal events appear to be related to anomalous warming around the dateline in the equatorial Pacific, typical of El Niño Modoki events. The results suggest different dynamical processes influence drought at different time scales through distinct remote ocean influences.

Impacts of interannual variation of the East Asian winter monsoon on aerosol concentrations over eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, J.; Liao, H.; Li, J.; Feng, J.

2012-04-01

China has been experiencing increased concentrations of aerosols, commonly attributed to the large increases in emissions associated with the rapid economic development. We apply a global three-dimensional Goddard Earth Observing System chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) driven by the NASA/GEOS-4 assimilated meteorological data to quantify the impacts of East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) on the aerosol concentrations over eastern China. We found that the simulated aerosol concentrations over eastern China have strong interannual variation and negative correlations with the strength of EAWM. Model results show that, accounting for sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, and organic carbon aerosols, the winter surface layer PM2.5 concentration averaged over eastern China (110°-125°E, 20°-45°N) can be 17.97% (4.78 µg m-3) higher in the weak monsoon years than that in the strong monsoon years. Regionally, the weakening of EAWM is shown to be able to increase PM2.5 concentration in the middle and lower reach of the Yellow River by 12 µg m-3. This point indicates that climate change associated with variation of EAWM has an essential influence on worsening air quality over eastern China. The possible causes of higher aerosol concentrations in the weak monsoon years may be attributed to the changing in wind fields and planetary boundary layer height between the weak and strong monsoon years. Sensitivity studies are performed to identify the role of chemical reaction associated with temperature and humidity on the higher aerosol concentrations in the weak monsoon years over eastern China.

Comparing daily temperature averaging methods: the role of surface and atmosphere variables in determining spatial and seasonal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernhardt, Jase; Carleton, Andrew M.

2018-05-01

The two main methods for determining the average daily near-surface air temperature, twice-daily averaging (i.e., [Tmax+Tmin]/2) and hourly averaging (i.e., the average of 24 hourly temperature measurements), typically show differences associated with the asymmetry of the daily temperature curve. To quantify the relative influence of several land surface and atmosphere variables on the two temperature averaging methods, we correlate data for 215 weather stations across the Contiguous United States (CONUS) for the period 1981-2010 with the differences between the two temperature-averaging methods. The variables are land use-land cover (LULC) type, soil moisture, snow cover, cloud cover, atmospheric moisture (i.e., specific humidity, dew point temperature), and precipitation. Multiple linear regression models explain the spatial and monthly variations in the difference between the two temperature-averaging methods. We find statistically significant correlations between both the land surface and atmosphere variables studied with the difference between temperature-averaging methods, especially for the extreme (i.e., summer, winter) seasons (adjusted R2 > 0.50). Models considering stations with certain LULC types, particularly forest and developed land, have adjusted R2 values > 0.70, indicating that both surface and atmosphere variables control the daily temperature curve and its asymmetry. This study improves our understanding of the role of surface and near-surface conditions in modifying thermal climates of the CONUS for a wide range of environments, and their likely importance as anthropogenic forcings—notably LULC changes and greenhouse gas emissions—continues.

Assessment of Land Surface Models in a High-Resolution Atmospheric Model during Indian Summer Monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Attada, Raju; Kumar, Prashant; Dasari, Hari Prasad

2018-04-01

Assessment of the land surface models (LSMs) on monsoon studies over the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) region is essential. In this study, we evaluate the skill of LSMs at 10 km spatial resolution in simulating the 2010 monsoon season. The thermal diffusion scheme (TDS), rapid update cycle (RUC), and Noah and Noah with multi-parameterization (Noah-MP) LSMs are chosen based on nature of complexity, that is, from simple slab model to multi-parameterization options coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Model results are compared with the available in situ observations and reanalysis fields. The sensitivity of monsoon elements, surface characteristics, and vertical structures to different LSMs is discussed. Our results reveal that the monsoon features are reproduced by WRF model with all LSMs, but with some regional discrepancies. The model simulations with selected LSMs are able to reproduce the broad rainfall patterns, orography-induced rainfall over the Himalayan region, and dry zone over the southern tip of India. The unrealistic precipitation pattern over the equatorial western Indian Ocean is simulated by WRF-LSM-based experiments. The spatial and temporal distributions of top 2-m soil characteristics (soil temperature and soil moisture) are well represented in RUC and Noah-MP LSM-based experiments during the ISM. Results show that the WRF simulations with RUC, Noah, and Noah-MP LSM-based experiments significantly improved the skill of 2-m temperature and moisture compared to TDS (chosen as a base) LSM-based experiments. Furthermore, the simulations with Noah, RUC, and Noah-MP LSMs exhibit minimum error in thermodynamics fields. In case of surface wind speed, TDS LSM performed better compared to other LSM experiments. A significant improvement is noticeable in simulating rainfall by WRF model with Noah, RUC, and Noah-MP LSMs over TDS LSM. Thus, this study emphasis the importance of choosing/improving LSMs for simulating the ISM phenomena in

A satellite-based 13-year climatology of net cloud radiative forcing over the Indian monsoon region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saud, Trailokya; Dey, Sagnik; Das, Sushant; Dutta, Soumi

2016-12-01

We present a satellite-based 13-year (Mar. 2000-Feb. 2013) climatology of net cloud radiative forcing (CRF) over the Indian monsoon region (0-40°N, 60-100°E) using the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) radiation data and explained the net CRF variability in terms of cloud properties retrieved by Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Mean (± 1σ) seasonal shortwave (SW) CRF values averaged over the region are - 82.7 ± 24.5, - 32.1 ± 12.1, - 17.2 ± 5.3 and - 30.2 ± 16.2 W m- 2 respectively for the monsoon (JJAS), post-monsoon (ON), winter (DJF) and pre-monsoon (MAM) seasons; while the corresponding longwave (LW) CRF values are 53.7 ± 14.2, 27.9 ± 10.0, 15.8 ± 7.0 and 25.2 ± 9.1 W m- 2. Regional analysis reveals the largest (least) negative net CRF over the northeast (northwest) rainfall homogeneous zone throughout the year due to the dominance of optically thick high clouds (low cloud fraction, fc). Mean JJAS fc is found to increase (by > 0.01 per year) over large parts of the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and the northwest region. Mean annual net CRF values for cumulus, stratocumulus and stratus (low level), altocumulus, altostratus and nimbostratus (mid-level clouds) and cirrus, cirrostratus and deep-convective (high level) clouds over the Indian monsoon region are estimated to be - 0.8, - 4.7, - 6.9, + 3.3, - 6.3, - 23.3, + 5.4, - 23.3 and - 42.1 W m- 2 respectively. Across a wide range of cloud optical depth (COD) and fc < 0.6, near cancellation of SW cooling by LW warming, is observed for low clouds. Net CRF drops below - 15 W m- 2 for clouds evolving above 400 hPa, mainly in the monsoon season. Our results demonstrate that net CRF variability in the Indian monsoon region can be explained by variability in Cloud Top Pressure (CTP), COD and fc. The study highlights the need for resolving a multi-layer cloud field in the future.

Spatial distribution of aerosol black carbon over India during pre-monsoon season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beegum, S. Naseema; Moorthy, K. Krishna; Babu, S. Suresh; Satheesh, S. K.; Vinoj, V.; Badarinath, K. V. S.; Safai, P. D.; Devara, P. C. S.; Singh, Sacchidanand; Vinod; Dumka, U. C.; Pant, P.

Aerosol black carbon (BC) mass concentrations ([BC]), measured continuously during a mutli-platform field experiment, Integrated Campaign for Aerosols gases and Radiation Budget (ICARB, March-May 2006), from a network of eight observatories spread over geographically distinct environments of India, (which included five mainland stations, one highland station, and two island stations (one each in Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal)) are examined for their spatio-temporal characteristics. During the period of study, [BC] showed large variations across the country, with values ranging from 27 μg m -3 over industrial/urban locations to as low as 0.065 μg m -3 over the Arabian Sea. For all mainland stations, [BC] remained high compared to highland as well as island stations. Among the island stations, Port Blair (PBR) had higher concentration of BC, compared to Minicoy (MCY), implying more absorbing nature of Bay of Bengal aerosols than Arabian Sea. The highland station Nainital (NTL), in the central Himalayas, showed low values of [BC], comparable or even lower than that of the island station PBR, indicating the prevalence of cleaner environment over there. An examination of the changes in the mean temporal features, as the season advances from winter (December-February) to pre-monsoon (March-May), revealed that: (a) Diurnal variations were pronounced over all the mainland stations, with an afternoon low and a nighttime high; (b) At the islands, the diurnal variations, though resembled those over the mainlands, were less pronounced; and (c) In contrast to this, highland station showed an opposite pattern with an afternoon high and a late night or early morning low. The diurnal variations at all stations are mainly caused by the dynamics of local Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL). At the entire mainland as well as island stations (except HYD and DEL), [BC] showed a decreasing trend from January to May. This is attributed to the increased convective mixing and to the

Causal evidence between monsoon and evolution of rhizomyine rodents

PubMed Central

López-Antoñanzas, Raquel; Knoll, Fabien; Wan, Shiming; Flynn, Lawrence J.

2015-01-01

The modern Asian monsoonal systems are currently believed to have originated around the end of the Oligocene following a crucial step of uplift of the Tibetan-Himalayan highlands. Although monsoon possibly drove the evolution of many mammal lineages during the Neogene, no evidence thereof has been provided so far. We examined the evolutionary history of a clade of rodents, the Rhizomyinae, in conjunction with our current knowledge of monsoon fluctuations over time. The macroevolutionary dynamics of rhizomyines were analyzed within a well-constrained phylogenetic framework coupled with biogeographic and evolutionary rate studies. The evolutionary novelties developed by these rodents were surveyed in parallel with the fluctuations of the Indian monsoon so as to evaluate synchroneity and postulate causal relationships. We showed the existence of three drops in biodiversity during the evolution of rhizomyines, all of which reflected elevated extinction rates. Our results demonstrated linkage of monsoon variations with the evolution and biogeography of rhizomyines. Paradoxically, the evolution of rhizomyines was accelerated during the phases of weakening of the monsoons, not of strengthening, most probably because at those intervals forest habitats declined, which triggered extinction and progressive specialization toward a burrowing existence. PMID:25759260

Causal evidence between monsoon and evolution of rhizomyine rodents.

PubMed

López-Antoñanzas, Raquel; Knoll, Fabien; Wan, Shiming; Flynn, Lawrence J

2015-03-11

The modern Asian monsoonal systems are currently believed to have originated around the end of the Oligocene following a crucial step of uplift of the Tibetan-Himalayan highlands. Although monsoon possibly drove the evolution of many mammal lineages during the Neogene, no evidence thereof has been provided so far. We examined the evolutionary history of a clade of rodents, the Rhizomyinae, in conjunction with our current knowledge of monsoon fluctuations over time. The macroevolutionary dynamics of rhizomyines were analyzed within a well-constrained phylogenetic framework coupled with biogeographic and evolutionary rate studies. The evolutionary novelties developed by these rodents were surveyed in parallel with the fluctuations of the Indian monsoon so as to evaluate synchroneity and postulate causal relationships. We showed the existence of three drops in biodiversity during the evolution of rhizomyines, all of which reflected elevated extinction rates. Our results demonstrated linkage of monsoon variations with the evolution and biogeography of rhizomyines. Paradoxically, the evolution of rhizomyines was accelerated during the phases of weakening of the monsoons, not of strengthening, most probably because at those intervals forest habitats declined, which triggered extinction and progressive specialization toward a burrowing existence.

Temperature and precipitation in the context of the annual cycle over Asia: Model evaluation and future change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Suyeon; Ha, Kyung-Ja

2017-05-01

Since the early or late arrival of monsoon rainfall can be devastating to agriculture and economy, the prediction of the onset of monsoon is a very important issue. The Asian monsoon is characterized by a strong annual cycle with rainy summer and dry winter. Nevertheless, most of monsoon studies have focused on the seasonal-mean of temperature and precipitation. The present study aims to evaluate a total of 27 coupled models that participated in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for projection of the time evolution and the intensity of Asian monsoon on the basis of the annual cycle of temperature and precipitation. And future changes of onset, retreat, and intensity of monsoon are analyzed. Four models for good seasonal-mean (GSM) and good harmonic (GH) groups, respectively, are selected. GSM is based on the seasonal-mean of temperature and precipitation in summer and winter, and GH is based on the annual cycle of temperature and precipitation which represents a characteristic of the monsoon. To compare how well the time evolution of the monsoon is simulated in each group, the onset, retreat, and duration of Asian monsoon are examined. The highest pattern correlation coefficient (PCC) of onset, retreat, and duration between the reanalysis data and model outputs demonstrates that GH models' MME predicts time evolution of monsoon most precisely, with PCC values of 0.80, 0.52, and 0.63, respectively. To predict future changes of the monsoon, the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP 4.5) experiments for the period of 2073-2099 are compared with historical simulations for the period of 1979-2005 from CMIP5 using GH models' MME. The Asian monsoon domain is expanded by 22.6% in the future projection. The onset date in the future is advanced over most parts of Asian monsoon region. The duration of summer Asian monsoon in the future projection will be lengthened by up to 2 pentads over the Asian monsoon region, as a result of advanced

Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Implications of Contrasting Trends in the Spatial Variability of Means and Extremes

PubMed Central

Ghosh, Subimal; Vittal, H.; Sharma, Tarul; Karmakar, Subhankar; Kasiviswanathan, K. S.; Dhanesh, Y.; Sudheer, K. P.; Gunthe, S. S.

2016-01-01

India’s agricultural output, economy, and societal well-being are strappingly dependent on the stability of summer monsoon rainfall, its variability and extremes. Spatial aggregate of intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events over Central India are significantly increasing, while at local scale they are spatially non-uniform with increasing spatial variability. The reasons behind such increase in spatial variability of extremes are poorly understood and the trends in mean monsoon rainfall have been greatly overlooked. Here, by using multi-decadal gridded daily rainfall data over entire India, we show that the trend in spatial variability of mean monsoon rainfall is decreasing as exactly opposite to that of extremes. The spatial variability of extremes is attributed to the spatial variability of the convective rainfall component. Contrarily, the decrease in spatial variability of the mean rainfall over India poses a pertinent research question on the applicability of large scale inter-basin water transfer by river inter-linking to address the spatial variability of available water in India. We found a significant decrease in the monsoon rainfall over major water surplus river basins in India. Hydrological simulations using a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model also revealed that the water yield in surplus river basins is decreasing but it is increasing in deficit basins. These findings contradict the traditional notion of dry areas becoming drier and wet areas becoming wetter in response to climate change in India. This result also calls for a re-evaluation of planning for river inter-linking to supply water from surplus to deficit river basins. PMID:27463092

Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Implications of Contrasting Trends in the Spatial Variability of Means and Extremes.

PubMed

Ghosh, Subimal; Vittal, H; Sharma, Tarul; Karmakar, Subhankar; Kasiviswanathan, K S; Dhanesh, Y; Sudheer, K P; Gunthe, S S

2016-01-01

India's agricultural output, economy, and societal well-being are strappingly dependent on the stability of summer monsoon rainfall, its variability and extremes. Spatial aggregate of intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events over Central India are significantly increasing, while at local scale they are spatially non-uniform with increasing spatial variability. The reasons behind such increase in spatial variability of extremes are poorly understood and the trends in mean monsoon rainfall have been greatly overlooked. Here, by using multi-decadal gridded daily rainfall data over entire India, we show that the trend in spatial variability of mean monsoon rainfall is decreasing as exactly opposite to that of extremes. The spatial variability of extremes is attributed to the spatial variability of the convective rainfall component. Contrarily, the decrease in spatial variability of the mean rainfall over India poses a pertinent research question on the applicability of large scale inter-basin water transfer by river inter-linking to address the spatial variability of available water in India. We found a significant decrease in the monsoon rainfall over major water surplus river basins in India. Hydrological simulations using a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model also revealed that the water yield in surplus river basins is decreasing but it is increasing in deficit basins. These findings contradict the traditional notion of dry areas becoming drier and wet areas becoming wetter in response to climate change in India. This result also calls for a re-evaluation of planning for river inter-linking to supply water from surplus to deficit river basins.

The INCOMPASS project field and modelling campaign: Interaction of Convective Organization and Monsoon Precipitation, Atmosphere, Surface and Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, Andrew; Bhat, Ganapati; Evans, Jonathan; Madan, Ranju; Marsham, John; Martin, Gill; Mitra, Ashis; Mrudula, Gm; Parker, Douglas; Pattnaik, Sandeep; Rajagopal, En; Taylor, Christopher; Tripathi, Sachchida

2017-04-01

The INCOMPASS project uses data from a field and aircraft measurement campaign during the 2016 monsoon onset to better understand and predict monsoon rainfall. The monsoon supplies the majority of water in South Asia, however modelling and forecasting the monsoon from days to the season ahead is limited by large model errors that develop quickly. Likely problems lie in physical parametrizations such as convection, the boundary layer and land surface. At the same time, lack of detailed observations prevents more thorough understanding of monsoon circulation and its interaction with the land surface; a process governed by boundary layer and convective cloud dynamics. From May to July 2016, INCOMPASS used a modified BAe-146 jet aircraft operated by the UK Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM), for the first project of this scale in India. The India and UK team flew around 100 hours of science sorties from bases in northern and southern India. Flights from Lucknow in the northern plains took measurements to the west and southeast to allow sampling of the complete contrast from dry desert air to the humid environment over the north Bay of Bengal. These routes were repeated in the pre-monsoon and monsoon phases, measuring contrasting surface and boundary layer structures. In addition, flights from the southern base in Bengaluru measured contrasts from the Arabian Sea, across the intense rains of the Western Ghats mountains, over the rain shadow in southeast India and over the southern Bay of Bengal. Flight planning was performed with the aid of forecasts from a new UK Met Office 4km limited area model. INCOMPASS also installed a network of surface flux towers, as well as operating a cloud-base ceilometer and performing intensive radiosonde launches from a supersite in Kanpur. Here we will outline preliminary results from the field campaign including new observations of the surface, boundary layer structure and atmospheric profiles from aircraft data. We

The influence of land cover change in the Asian monsoon region on present-day and mid-Holocene climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dallmeyer, A.; Claussen, M.

2011-02-01

Using the general circulation model ECHAM5/JSBACH, we investigate the biogeophysical effect of large-scale afforestation and deforestation in the Asian monsoon domain on present-day and mid-Holocene climate. We demonstrate that the applied land cover change does not only modify the local climate but also change the climate in North Africa and the Middle East via teleconnections. Deforestation in the Asian monsoon domain enhances the rainfall in North Africa. In parts of the Sahara summer precipitation is more than doubled. In contrast, afforestation strongly decreases summer rainfall in the Middle East and even leads to the cessation of the rainfall-activity in some parts of this region. Regarding the local climate, deforestation results in a reduction of precipitation and a cooler climate as grass mostly has a higher albedo than forests. However, in the core region of the Asian monsoon the decrease of evaporative cooling in the monsoon season overcompensates this signal and results in a net warming. Afforestation has mainly the opposite effect, although the pattern of change is less clear. It leads to more precipitation in most parts of the Asian monsoon domain and a warmer climate except for the southern regions where a stronger evaporation decreases near-surface temperatures in the monsoon season. When prescribing mid-Holocene insolation, the pattern of local precipitation change differs. Afforestation particularly increases monsoon rainfall in the region along the Yellow River which was the settlement area of major prehistoric cultures. In this region, the effect of land cover change on precipitation is half as large as the orbitally-induced precipitation change. Thus, our model results reveal that mid- to late-Holocene land cover change could strongly have contributed to the decreasing Asian monsoon precipitation during the Holocene known from reconstructions.

The influence of land cover change in the Asian monsoon region on present-day and mid-Holocene climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dallmeyer, A.; Claussen, M.

2011-06-01

Using the general circulation model ECHAM5/JSBACH, we investigate the biogeophysical effect of large-scale afforestation and deforestation in the Asian monsoon domain on present-day and mid-Holocene climate. We demonstrate that the applied land cover change does not only modify the local climate but also change the climate in North Africa and the Middle East via teleconnections. Deforestation in the Asian monsoon domain enhances the rainfall in North Africa. In parts of the Sahara summer precipitation is more than doubled. In contrast, afforestation strongly decreases summer rainfall in the Middle East and even leads to the cessation of the rainfall-activity in some parts of this region. Regarding the local climate, deforestation results in a reduction of precipitation and a cooler climate as grass mostly has a higher albedo than forests. However, in the core region of the Asian monsoon the decrease in evaporative cooling in the monsoon season overcompensates this signal and results in a net warming. Afforestation has mainly the opposite effect, although the pattern of change is less clear. It leads to more precipitation in most parts of the Asian monsoon domain and a warmer climate except for the southern regions where a stronger evaporation decreases near-surface temperatures in the monsoon season. When prescribing mid-Holocene insolation, the pattern of local precipitation change differs. Afforestation particularly increases monsoon rainfall in the region along the Yellow River which was the settlement area of major prehistoric cultures. In this region, the effect of land cover change on precipitation is half as large as the orbitally-induced precipitation change. Thus, our model results reveal that mid- to late-Holocene land cover change could strongly have contributed to the decreasing Asian monsoon precipitation during the Holocene known from reconstructions.

Clay mineralogical and geochemical proxies of the East Asian summer monsoon evolution in the South China Sea during Late Quaternary.

PubMed

Chen, Quan; Liu, Zhifei; Kissel, Catherine

2017-02-08

The East Asian summer monsoon controls the climatic regime of an extended region through temperature and precipitation changes. As the East Asian summer monsoon is primarily driven by the northern hemisphere summer insolation, such meteorological variables are expected to significantly change on the orbital timescale, influencing the composition of terrestrial sediments in terms of both mineralogy and geochemistry. Here we present clay mineralogy and major element composition of Core MD12-3432 retrieved from the northern South China Sea, and we investigate their relationship with the East Asian summer monsoon evolution over the last 400 ka. The variability of smectite/(illite + chlorite) ratio presents a predominant precession periodicity, synchronous with the northern hemisphere summer insolation changes and therefore with that of the East Asian summer monsoon. Variations in K 2 O/Al 2 O 3 are characterized by eccentricity cycles, increasing during interglacials when the East Asian summer monsoon is enhanced. Based on the knowledge of sediment provenances, we suggest that these two proxies in the South China Sea are linked to the East Asian summer monsoon evolution with different mechanisms, which are (1) contemporaneous chemical weathering intensity in Luzon for smectite/(illite + chlorite) ratio and (2) river denudation intensity for K 2 O/Al 2 O 3 ratio of bulk sediment.

Confronting the “Indian summer monsoon response to black carbon aerosol” with the uncertainty in its radiative forcing and beyond

DOE PAGES

Kovilakam, Mahesh; Mahajan, Salil

2016-06-28

While black carbon aerosols (BC) are believed to modulate the Indian monsoons, the radiative forcing estimate of BC suffers from large uncertainties globally. In this paper, we analyze a suite of idealized experiments forced with a range of BC concentrations that span a large swath of the latest estimates of its global radiative forcing. Within those bounds of uncertainty, summer precipitation over the Indian region increases nearly linearly with the increase in BC burden. The linearity holds even as the BC concentration is increased to levels resembling those hypothesized in nuclear winter scenarios, despite large surface cooling over India andmore » adjoining regions. The enhanced monsoonal circulation is associated with a linear increase in the large-scale meridional tropospheric temperature gradient. The precipitable water over the region also increases linearly with an increase in BC burden, due to increased moisture transport from the Arabian sea to the land areas. The wide range of Indian monsoon response elicited in these experiments emphasizes the need to reduce the uncertainty in BC estimates to accurately quantify their role in modulating the Indian monsoons. Finally, the increase in monsoonal circulation in response to large BC concentrations contrasts earlier findings that the Indian summer monsoon may break down following a nuclear war.« less

Confronting the “Indian summer monsoon response to black carbon aerosol” with the uncertainty in its radiative forcing and beyond

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kovilakam, Mahesh; Mahajan, Salil

While black carbon aerosols (BC) are believed to modulate the Indian monsoons, the radiative forcing estimate of BC suffers from large uncertainties globally. In this paper, we analyze a suite of idealized experiments forced with a range of BC concentrations that span a large swath of the latest estimates of its global radiative forcing. Within those bounds of uncertainty, summer precipitation over the Indian region increases nearly linearly with the increase in BC burden. The linearity holds even as the BC concentration is increased to levels resembling those hypothesized in nuclear winter scenarios, despite large surface cooling over India andmore » adjoining regions. The enhanced monsoonal circulation is associated with a linear increase in the large-scale meridional tropospheric temperature gradient. The precipitable water over the region also increases linearly with an increase in BC burden, due to increased moisture transport from the Arabian sea to the land areas. The wide range of Indian monsoon response elicited in these experiments emphasizes the need to reduce the uncertainty in BC estimates to accurately quantify their role in modulating the Indian monsoons. Finally, the increase in monsoonal circulation in response to large BC concentrations contrasts earlier findings that the Indian summer monsoon may break down following a nuclear war.« less

Groundwater hydrochemistry,Variation of Arsenic and Monsoonal influence : An explanation regarding release mechanism assisted by isotopic signatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chatterjee, Debashis

2017-04-01

The investigation examines the groundwater and surface water geochemistry of two different geomorphics in West Bengal. During investigation, several key factors are taken into account e.g. potential influences of groundwater abstraction on the hydrochemical evolution of the aquifer, the effect of different water inputs (monsoon rain, irrigation and downward percolation from surface water impoundments) to the groundwater system and accompanying As release. A natural levee and low-land flood plain have been chosen for said investigation. The results reveal that the stable isotopic signatures of oxygen (d18O) and hydrogen (d2H) are governed by local precipitation, the isotopic composition falls sub-parallel to the Global Meteoric Water Line (GMWL). The Cl/Br molar ratio indicates vertical recharge into the wells within the flood plain area, notably during the post-monsoon season, while influences of both evaporation and vertical mixing are visible within the natural levee wells. The important finding is the increasing mean DOC concentrations (from 1.33 to 6.29 mg/L), from pre- to post-monsoon season, which is indicative of possible inflow of organic carbon to the aquifer during the monsoonal recharge. This suggests the subsequent increase in AsT, Fe(II) and HCO3 highlighting a possible initial episode of reductive dissolution of As-rich Fe-oxyhydroxides. The abrupt increase in the mean As(III) proportions (by 223%), notably in the flood plain samples during the post-monsoon season. This is attended by a slight increase in mean AsT (7%). This may refer to anaerobic microbial degradation of DOC coupled with the reduction of As(V) to As(III) without resulting in additional As release from the aquifer sediments.

Global monsoon precipitation responses to large volcanic eruptions.

PubMed

Liu, Fei; Chai, Jing; Wang, Bin; Liu, Jian; Zhang, Xiao; Wang, Zhiyuan

2016-04-11

Climate variation of global monsoon (GM) precipitation involves both internal feedback and external forcing. Here, we focus on strong volcanic forcing since large eruptions are known to be a dominant mechanism in natural climate change. It is not known whether large volcanoes erupted at different latitudes have distinctive effects on the monsoon in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and the Southern Hemisphere (SH). We address this issue using a 1500-year volcanic sensitivity simulation by the Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM1). Volcanoes are classified into three types based on their meridional aerosol distributions: NH volcanoes, SH volcanoes and equatorial volcanoes. Using the model simulation, we discover that the GM precipitation in one hemisphere is enhanced significantly by the remote volcanic forcing occurring in the other hemisphere. This remote volcanic forcing-induced intensification is mainly through circulation change rather than moisture content change. In addition, the NH volcanic eruptions are more efficient in reducing the NH monsoon precipitation than the equatorial ones, and so do the SH eruptions in weakening the SH monsoon, because the equatorial eruptions, despite reducing moisture content, have weaker effects in weakening the off-equatorial monsoon circulation than the subtropical-extratropical volcanoes do.

Trends in thermal discomfort indices over western coastal cities of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desai, Manasi S.; Dhorde, Amit G.

2018-02-01

The present research aimed at analyzing temporal trends in thermal discomfort indices for a period of 46 years from 1969 to 2014 over western coastal region of India for seven urban centers during the months of pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. Direct thermal discomfort indices employed for this purpose were thermo-hygrometric index (THI) and heat index (HI). Statistical techniques applied for obtaining temporal trends were linear regression model and Mann-Kendall (MK) rank test. Statistical significance of the obtained trends was evaluated at 95% confidence level. Sequential MK (SQ-MK) test was used for change point detection. To investigate actual incidences of thermal discomfort, daily index values were averaged for standard meteorological weeks (SMWs) over the study period and decadal percentage of thermal discomfort during SMWs was estimated. Trend analysis of selected meteorological parameters such as dry bulb temperature (DBT), wet bulb temperature (WBT), relative humidity (RH), and wind speed (WS) were investigated, which might be responsible for variation in thermal discomfort over the period. The results obtained depicted significant increase in thermal discomfort over the cities located on the southern part of west coast, while significant increase was observed during monsoon season months compared to pre-monsoon season. Decadal variation in percentage of SMWs falling in various discomfort categories was studied. At majority of the stations, moderate and high-risk SMWs have increased over the last two decades. The results of change point detection for THI and HI denoted significant increase at most of the stations after 1990s. The study validates increase in thermal discomfort vulnerability, particularly at thriving urban centers of western coastal region of India.

Multi-scale forcing and the formation of subtropical desert and monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, G. X.; Liu, Y.; Zhu, X.; Li, W.; Ren, R.; Duan, A.; Liang, X.

2009-09-01

This study investigates three types of atmospheric forcing across the summertime subtropics that are shown to contribute in various ways to the occurrence of dry and wet climates in the subtropics. To explain the formation of desert over the western parts of continents and monsoon over the eastern parts, we propose a new mechanism of positive feedback between diabatic heating and vorticity generation that occurs via meridional advection of planetary vorticity and temperature. Monsoon and desert are demonstrated to coexist as twin features of multi-scale forcing, as follows. First, continent-scale heating over land and cooling over ocean induce the ascent of air over the eastern parts of continents and western parts of oceans, and descent over eastern parts of oceans and western parts of continents. Second, local-scale sea-breeze forcing along coastal regions enhances air descent over eastern parts of oceans and ascent over eastern parts of continents. This leads to the formation of the well-defined summertime subtropical LOSECOD quadruplet-heating pattern across each continent and adjacent oceans, with long-wave radiative cooling (LO) over eastern parts of oceans, sensible heating (SE) over western parts of continents, condensation heating (CO) over eastern parts of continents, and double dominant heating (D: LO+CO) over western parts of oceans. Such a quadruplet heating pattern corresponds to a dry climate over the western parts of continents and a wet climate over eastern parts. Third, regional-scale orographic-uplift-heating generates poleward ascending flow to the east of orography and equatorward descending flow to the west. The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is located over the eastern Eurasian continent. The TP-forced circulation pattern is in phase with that produced by continental-scale forcing, and the strongest monsoon and largest deserts are formed over the Afro-Eurasian Continent. In contrast, the Rockies and the Andes are located over the western parts of their

CLIVAR Asian-Australian Monsoon Panel Report to Scientific Steering Group-18

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sperber, Ken R.; Hendon, Harry H.

2011-05-04

These are a set of slides on CLIVAR Asian-Australian Monsoon Panel Report to Scientific Steering Group-18. These are the major topics covered within: major activities over the past year, AAMP Monsoon Diagnostics/Metrics Task Team, Boreal Summer Asian Monsoon, Workshop on Modelling Monsoon Intraseasonal Variability, Workshop on Interdecadal Variability and Predictability of the Asian-Australian Monsoon, Evidence of Interdecadal Variability of the Asian-Australian Monsoon, Development of MJO metrics/process-oriented diagnostics/model evaluation/prediction with MJOTF and GCSS, YOTC MJOTF, GEWEX GCSS, AAMP MJO Diabatic Heating Experiment, Hindcast Experiment for Intraseasonal Prediction, Support and Coordination for CINDY2011/DYNAMO, Outreach to CORDEX, Interaction with FOCRAII, WWRP/WCRP Multi-Week Predictionmore » Project, Major Future Plans/Activities, Revised AAMP Terms of Reference, Issues and Challenges.« less

From monsoon to marine productivity in the Arabian Sea: insights from glacial and interglacial climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Mézo, Priscilla; Beaufort, Luc; Bopp, Laurent; Braconnot, Pascale; Kageyama, Masa

2017-07-01

The current-climate Indian monsoon is known to boost biological productivity in the Arabian Sea. This paradigm has been extensively used to reconstruct past monsoon variability from palaeo-proxies indicative of changes in surface productivity. Here, we test this paradigm by simulating changes in marine primary productivity for eight contrasted climates from the last glacial-interglacial cycle. We show that there is no straightforward correlation between boreal summer productivity of the Arabian Sea and summer monsoon strength across the different simulated climates. Locally, productivity is fuelled by nutrient supply driven by Ekman dynamics. Upward transport of nutrients is modulated by a combination of alongshore wind stress intensity, which drives coastal upwelling, and by a positive wind stress curl to the west of the jet axis resulting in upward Ekman pumping. To the east of the jet axis there is however a strong downward Ekman pumping due to a negative wind stress curl. Consequently, changes in coastal alongshore stress and/or curl depend on both the jet intensity and position. The jet position is constrained by the Indian summer monsoon pattern, which in turn is influenced by the astronomical parameters and the ice sheet cover. The astronomical parameters are indeed shown to impact wind stress intensity in the Arabian Sea through large-scale changes in the meridional gradient of upper-tropospheric temperature. However, both the astronomical parameters and the ice sheets affect the pattern of wind stress curl through the position of the sea level depression barycentre over the monsoon region (20-150° W, 30° S-60° N). The combined changes in monsoon intensity and pattern lead to some higher glacial productivity during the summer season, in agreement with some palaeo-productivity reconstructions.

Detailed Analysis of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Processes with Modern/High-Quality Satellite Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Eric A.; Kuo, Kwo-Sen; Mehta, Amita V.; Yang, Song

2007-01-01

We examine, in detail, Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall processes using modernhigh quality satellite precipitation measurements. The focus here is on measurements derived from three NASA cloud and precipitation satellite missionslinstruments (TRMM/PR&TMI, AQUNAMSRE, and CLOUDSATICPR), and a fourth TRMM Project-generated multi-satellite precipitation measurement dataset (viz., TRMM standard algorithm 3b42) -- all from a period beginning in 1998 up to the present. It is emphasized that the 3b42 algorithm blends passive microwave (PMW) radiometer-based precipitation estimates from LEO satellites with infi-ared (IR) precipitation estimates from a world network of CEO satellites (representing -15% of the complete space-time coverage) All of these observations are first cross-calibrated to precipitation estimates taken from standard TRMM combined PR-TMI algorithm 2b31, and second adjusted at the large scale based on monthly-averaged rain-gage measurements. The blended approach takes advantage of direct estimates of precipitation from the PMW radiometerequipped LEO satellites -- but which suffer fi-om sampling limitations -- in combination with less accurate IR estimates from the optical-infrared imaging cameras on GEO satellites -- but which provide continuous diurnal sampling. The advantages of the current technologies are evident in the continuity and coverage properties inherent to the resultant precipitation datasets that have been an outgrowth of these stable measuring and retrieval technologies. There is a wealth of information contained in the current satellite measurements of precipitation regarding the salient precipitation properties of the Indian Summer Monsoon. Using different datasets obtained from the measuring systems noted above, we have analyzed the observations cast in the form of: (1) spatially distributed means and variances over the hierarchy of relevant time scales (hourly I diurnally, daily, monthly, seasonally I intra-seasonally, and inter

Fast and Slow Responses of the South Asian Monsoon System to Anthropogenic Aerosols

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ganguly, Dilip; Rasch, Philip J.; Wang, Hailong

2012-09-25

Using a global climate model with fully predictive aerosol life cycle, we investigate the fast and slow responses of the South Asian monsoon system to anthropogenic aerosol forcing. Our results show that the feedbacks associated with sea surface temperature (SST) change caused by aerosols play a more important role than the aerosol's direct impact on radiation, clouds and land surface (rapid adjustments) in shaping the total equilibrium climate response of the monsoon system to aerosol forcing. Inhomogeneous SST cooling caused by anthropogenic aerosols eventually reduces the meridional tropospheric temperature gradient and the easterly shear of zonal winds over the region,more » slowing down the local Hadley cell circulation, decreasing the northward moisture transport, and causing a reduction in precipitation over South Asia. Although total responses in precipitation are closer to the slow responses in general, the fast component dominates over land areas north of 25°N. Our results also show an east-west asymmetry in the fast responses to anthropogenic aerosols causing increases in precipitation west of 80°E but decreases east of it.« less

The classification of PM10 concentrations in Johor Based on Seasonal Monsoons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamid, Hazrul Abdul; Hanafi Rahmat, Muhamad; Aisyah Sapani, Siti

2018-04-01

Air is the most important living resource in life. Contaminated air could adversely affect human health and the environment, especially during the monsoon season. Contamination occurs as a result of human action and haze. There are several pollutants present in the air where one of them is PM10. Secondary data was obtained from the Department of Environment from 2010 until 2014 and was analyzed using the hourly average of PM10 concentrations. This paper examined the relation between PM10 concentrations and the monsoon seasons (Northeast Monsoon and Southwest Monsoon) in Larkin and Pasir Gudang. It was expected that the concentration of PM10 would be higher during the Southwest Monsoon as it is a dry season. The data revealed that the highest PM10 concentrations were recorded between 2010 to 2014 during this particular monsoon season. The characteristics of PM10 concentration were compared using descriptive statistics based on the monsoon seasons and classified using the hierarchical cluster analysis (Ward Methods). The annual average of PM10 concentration during the Southwest Monsoon had exceeded the standard set by the Malaysia Ambient Air Quality Guidelines (50 μg/m3) while the PM10 concentration during the Northeast Monsoon was below the acceptable level for both stations. The dendrogram displayed showed two clusters for each monsoon season for both stations excepted for the PM10 concentration during the Northeast Monsoon in Larkin which was classified into three clusters due to the haze in 2010. Overall, the concentration of PM10 in 2013 was higher based on the clustering shown for every monsoon season at both stations according to the characteristics in the descriptive statistics.

Divergent influences of the Greenland and Antarctica climates on the Asian monsoon during a stadial to interstadial cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, Fucai; Wang, Yongjin; Liao, Zebo; Chen, Shitao; Zhang, Weihong; Shao, Qingfeng

2018-06-01

Despite the links of Asian monsoon with climates at high northern and southern latitudes, it remains unclear that at which time and to what extent the Asian monsoon variation is dominated by one of the two drivers throughout a Greenland Stadial (GS) to Greenland Interstadial (GI) cycle. Here we provide a Chinese stalagmite δ18O record to study their teleconnections throughout the GS-6 to GI-5.2 cycle. The resemblance between the stalagmite and Greenland records, in timing, duration and abruptness of GI-5.2, supports that the occurrence and termination of GIs are paced by the northern driving force. During the intervals of GI-5.2 and GS-6, however, the Asian monsoon fluctuated concomitantly with variation in temperature over Antarctica, instead of over Greenland. This covariation indicates dominant influences of the Antarctic climate during the climatically stable intervals of stadials and interstadials. This study updates our knowledge on mechanical dynamics of the Asian monsoon change and global climate change throughout a GS to GI cycle.

Characterization of hydrometeors and precipitation over the Indian monsoon region using aircraft measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maheskumar, R. S.; Padmakumari, B.; Konwar, Mahen; Morwal, S. B.; Deshpande, C. G.

2018-06-01

In-situ observations of cloud microphysical properties, carried out over different parts of Indian sub-continent using an instrumented research aircraft during Phase-I of Cloud Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation Enhancement EXperiment (CAIPEEX) from June to September 2009, were studied. Different cloud probes were used to characterize the hydrometeor and precipitation types in the monsoon clouds. The results revealed that all liquid phase hydrometeors were present at temperatures -12 °C to 15 °C. Most of the presence of rain drops were found in the liquid water content (LWC) range from 0.5 to 2 g/m3. In general, rain drops are initiated when the droplet effective radius (Re) exceeded 12 μm. Rain dominated at the tops of young growing convective clouds even at temperatures colder than -10 °C. Mixed phase hydrometeors were present at temperatures from -2 °C to -18 °C. The cases where mixed phase precipitation occurred at temperatures warmer than about -7 °C were associated with influx of transported dust aerosol at the upper (supercooled) region of these cloud systems. Ice only hydrometeors were found at temperatures extending from -10 °C to -22 °C. Most of the monsoon rain is produced by warm and cold cloud/mixed-phase processes in the cloud. The combined Re from two different cloud probes is useful for validation of satellite derived cloud microphysical parameter.

Decadal record of monsoon dynamics across the Himalayas using tree ring data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brunello, Camilla Francesca; Andermann, Christoff; Helle, Gerhard; Comiti, Francesco; Tonon, Giustino; Ventura, Maurizio; Hovius, Niels

2017-04-01

tree growth and precipitation, confirming the sensitivity of the trees to water availability. A set of cores from at least 20 individual trees was collected at each site. Dating revealed records with lengths from 80 to 500 years. Tree-ring width measurements were detrended to minimize the ecological influence on growth, and analyzed against local climate parameters such as temperature and precipitation. The site chronologies were compared to highlight the propagation of the monsoonal events along the latitudinal transect. Additionally, 80-year tree-ring oxygen isotope records from the lowest site (Lete, 2500 m a.s.l.) of the transect were compared with precipitation patterns derived from historical rain gauge and satellite data. This study provides first insights into the relationship among tree-ring width, cellulose isotopes and monsoon signature, shedding light on decadal variations of precipitation in the high-elevated arid area of the High Himalayas.

Regional changes in extreme monsoon rainfall deficit and excess in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pal, Indrani; Al-Tabbaa, Abir

2010-04-01

With increasing concerns about climate change, the need to understand the nature and variability of monsoon climatic conditions and to evaluate possible future changes becomes increasingly important. This paper deals with the changes in frequency and magnitudes of extreme monsoon rainfall deficiency and excess in India from 1871 to 2005. Five regions across India comprising variable climates were selected for the study. Apart from changes in individual regions, changing tendencies in extreme monsoon rainfall deficit and excess were also determined for the Indian region as a whole. The trends and their significance were assessed using non-parametric Mann-Kendall technique. The results show that intra-region variability for extreme monsoon seasonal precipitation is large and mostly exhibited a negative tendency leading to increasing frequency and magnitude of monsoon rainfall deficit and decreasing frequency and magnitude of monsoon rainfall excess.

Multiproxy Reduced-Dimension Reconstruction of Holocene Tropical Pacific SST Fields and Indian Monsoon Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gill, E.; Rajagopalan, B.; Molnar, P. H.; Marchitto, T. M., Jr.; Kushnir, Y.

2016-12-01

We develop a multiproxy reduced-dimension methodology that blends magnesium calcium (Mg/Ca) and alkenone (UK'37) paleo sea surface temperature (SST) records from the eastern and western equatorial Pacific to recreate snapshots of full field SSTs and zonal wind anomalies from 10 to 2 ka BP in 2000-year increments. In the reconstruction, the zonal SST difference (average west Pacific SST minus average east Pacific SST) is largest at 10 ka (0.26°C), with coldest SST anomalies of -0.9°C in the eastern equatorial Pacific and concurrent easterly maximum zonal wind anomalies of 7 m s-1 throughout the central Pacific. From 10 to 2 ka, the entire equatorial Pacific warms, but at a faster rate in the east than in the west. These patterns are broadly consistent with previous inferences of reduced El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability associated with a cooler and/or "La Niña-like" state during the early to middle Holocene. At present there is a strong negative correlation between tropical pacific SSTs and Indian summer monsoon strength. Assuming ENSO-monsoon teleconnections were the same during early Holocene, we would expect a cooler tropical Pacific to enhance the summer Indian monsoon. To test this idea, we used the same tropical Pacific SST proxy records and a similar reduced-dimension technique to reconstruct fields of Arabian Sea wind-stress curl and Indian summer monsoon precipitation. Reconstructions for 10 ka reveal wind-stress curl anomalies of 30% greater than present day off the coastlines of Oman and Yemen, which suggest greater coastal upwelling and an enhanced monsoon jet during this time. Spatial rainfall reconstructions reveal the greatest difference in precipitation at 10 ka over the core monsoon region ( 20-60% greater than present day). Specifically, reconstructions from 10 ka reveal 40-60% greater rainfall over North West India, a region home to abundant paleo-lake records spanning the Holocene but is at present remarkably dry ( 200-450 mm of annual

The effect of monsoon variability on fish landing in the Sadeng Fishing Port of Yogyakarta, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Subarna, D.

2018-03-01

The volume of landing fish of the Sadeng Fishing Port within certain months showed an increase from year to year, especially during June, July and August (JJA). While in other months the fish production was low. The purpose of this research was to understand the influence of monsoon variability on fish landing in the Sadeng Fishing Port. Data were analyzed descriptively as spatial and temporal catch. Data were namely catch fish production collected from fishing port, while satellite and HYCOM model during 2011–2012 period were selected. The wind data, sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a were analyzed from ASCAT and MODIS sensors during the Southeast Monsoon. The result showed the wind from the southeasterly provide wind stress at sea level and caused Ekman Transport to move away water mass from the sea shore. The lost water mass in the ocean surface was replaced by cold water from deeper layer which was rich in nutrients. The distribution of chlorophyll-a during the Southeast Monsoon was relatively higher in the southern coast of Java than during the Northwest monsoon. The SST showed approximately 25.3 °C. The abundance of nutrients indicated by the distribution of chlorophyll-a around the coast during the Southeast Monsoon, will enhance the arrival of larger fish. Thus, it can be understood that during June, July, and August the catch production is higher than the other months.

Surface Shortwave and Longe Wave Solar Radiation Atmospheric Aerosols Radiative Forcing Using Sunphotometer , Modis Satellite and Cnr -1 Measurements Over Western Indian Tropical Site or Udaipur ( 24.57N, 73. 69E, 588M Asl)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vyas, B. M.

2017-12-01

The analysis of investigation describes the experimental results of monthly surafcae short wave radiative(SWR) and longwave radaitive(LWR) atmospheric aerosols radaitive forcing derived from daily mesaured values of AOD at 550 nm from MODIS Terra and Acqau satellite as well as hourly measurement of AOD at 500nm from MICROTOPS _II sunsphotometer ( M/S Solar Light Co. USA) with round the clock of 24 hourly measurement of CNR-1 ( M/s KIP & ZONN, Netherland) during the clear sky days over Udaipur. For the present investigation, such above simulatneous daily data sets of period from Oct.,2011 to June 2017 were used to study the monthly and sesaonal ground level SWR and LWR over a semi- urban and semi-arid western Indian tropical site for pre- monsoon, post-monsoon and winter months. In this study, a well known method of computing surface SWR and LWR has been employed as Method -1 as suggested by Shrivastava et al., 2011. A stong and distinct different sesaonal surface SWR and LWR due to atmospheric aerosols has observed that the well defined seasonal neagtive SWR is observed maximum in pre- monsoon and minimum in winter and post-monsoon months. But in contary to the above, higher positive monthly LWR values are noticed in pre-monsoon as compared to in winter months. The The inter- annual sesaonal trend of the SWR and LWR are also noticed in the present work. The reslts of present study will be compared with other availlable simillar study using SBDART at other other Indian stations.

The Response of the North American Monsoon to Increased Greenhouse Gas Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cook, B. I.; Seager, R.

2013-01-01

[1] We analyze the response of the North American Monsoon (NAM) to increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing (emissions scenario RCP 8.5) using new simulations available through the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5). Changes in total monsoon season rainfall with GHG warming are small and insignificant. The models do, however, show significant declines in early monsoon season precipitation (June-July) and increases in late monsoon season (September-October) precipitation, indicating a shift in seasonality toward delayed onset and withdrawal of the monsoon. Early in the monsoon season, tropospheric warming increases vertical stability, reinforced by reductions in available surface moisture, inhibiting precipitation and delaying the onset of the monsoon. By the end of the monsoon season, moisture convergence is sufficient to overcome the warming induced stability increases, and precipitation is enhanced. Even with no change in total NAM rainfall, shifts in the seasonal distribution of precipitation within the NAM region are still likely to have significant societal and ecological consequences, reinforcing the need to not only understand the magnitude, but also the timing, of future precipitation changes.

An assessment of Indian monsoon seasonal forecasts and mechanisms underlying monsoon interannual variability in the Met Office GloSea5-GC2 system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Stephanie J.; Turner, Andrew; Woolnough, Steven; Martin, Gill; MacLachlan, Craig

2017-03-01

We assess Indian summer monsoon seasonal forecasts in GloSea5-GC2, the Met Office fully coupled subseasonal to seasonal ensemble forecasting system. Using several metrics, GloSea5-GC2 shows similar skill to other state-of-the-art seasonal forecast systems. The prediction skill of the large-scale South Asian monsoon circulation is higher than that of Indian monsoon rainfall. Using multiple linear regression analysis we evaluate relationships between Indian monsoon rainfall and five possible drivers of monsoon interannual variability. Over the time period studied (1992-2011), the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) are the most important of these drivers in both observations and GloSea5-GC2. Our analysis indicates that ENSO and its teleconnection with Indian rainfall are well represented in GloSea5-GC2. However, the relationship between the IOD and Indian rainfall anomalies is too weak in GloSea5-GC2, which may be limiting the prediction skill of the local monsoon circulation and Indian rainfall. We show that this weak relationship likely results from a coupled mean state bias that limits the impact of anomalous wind forcing on SST variability, resulting in erroneous IOD SST anomalies. Known difficulties in representing convective precipitation over India may also play a role. Since Indian rainfall responds weakly to the IOD, it responds more consistently to ENSO than in observations. Our assessment identifies specific coupled biases that are likely limiting GloSea5-GC2 Indian summer monsoon seasonal prediction skill, providing targets for model improvement.

Simulation of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations in a coarse-resolution aquaplanet GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ajayamohan, R. S.; Khouider, Boualem; Majda, Andrew J.

2014-08-01

The skill of the global climate models (GCMs) to realistically simulate the monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs) is related to the sensitivity of their convective parameterization schemes. Here we show that by coupling a simple multicloud parameterization to a coarse-resolution aquaplanet GCM, realistic MISOs can be simulated. We conduct three different simulations with a fixed nonhomogeneous sea surface temperature mimicking the Indian Ocean/western Pacific warm pool (WP) centered at the three latitudes 5°N, 10°N, and 15°N, respectively, to replicate the seasonal migration of the Tropical Convergence Zone (TCZ). This results in the generation of mean circulation resembling the monsoonal flow pattern in boreal summer. Succession of eastward propagating Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) disturbances with phase speed, amplitude, and structure similar to summer MJOs are simulated when the WP is at 5°N. When the WP is located over 10°N, northward and eastward propagating MISOs are simulated. This case captures the meridional seesaw of convection between continental and oceanic TCZ observed during boreal summer over South Asia. Westward propagating Rossby wave-like disturbances are simulated when the WP is over 15°N congruous with the synoptic disturbances seen over the monsoon trough. The initiation of intraseasonal oscillations in the model can occur internally through organization of convective events above the WP associated with internal dynamics.

Impacts of polar ice sheets on the East Asian monsoon during the MIS-13 interglacial