Lower Interbreath Interval Complexity Is Associated With Extubation Failure in Mechanically Ventilated Patients During Spontaneous Breathing Trials

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-06-01

patient tolerated the SBT, then measurement of respiratory rate (RR), rapid shallow breathing index (RSBI), and negative inspiratory force ( NIF ) were...no deaths in either cohort during the study period. The characteristics of the two groups, along with RR, duration of IBI, NIF , and RSBI calculated... NIF , and RSBI did not differ between groups, and that all subjects who were extubated had weaning parameters predictive of success. To explore the

Behavior of B-type natriuretic peptide during mechanical ventilation and spontaneous breathing after extubation.

PubMed

Principi, T; Falzetti, G; Elisei, D; Donati, A; Pelaia, P

2009-04-01

The behavior of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) is assessed during mechanical ventilation (MV) and spontaneous breathing after extubation in critical patients. Thirty patients admitted in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) were enrolled. BNP, fluid balance (FB), airway pressure (AP) and dobutamine infusion needing (DP) were registered in three stages: T0, admission to ICU; T1, before extubation; T2, 24 h after extubation. Patients with congestive heart failure (CHF) had BNP values higher than other patients. The value of BNP during MV was greater than normal in all patients. The cut-off to discriminate patients with heart failure during MV was 286 pgxmL(-1)(sensitivity: 86%; specificity: 90%). The increase of BNP during MV directly correlated with FB and inversely correlated with AP and DP. The plasmatic level of BNP remained higher than normal values 24 h after extubation. The underlying disease of an ICU patient seems to play a relevant role for BNP production and is probably linked to different aspects of therapeutic approach required by the patient. Our data suggest a cut-off value of BNP higher than the usual is necessary to discriminate mechanically-ventilated patients without CHF. This study should be repeated with an enlarged population.

Association between the rapid shallow breathing index and extubation success in patients with traumatic brain injury

PubMed Central

dos Reis, Helena França Correia; Almeida, Mônica Lajana Oliveira; da Silva, Mário Ferreira; Moreira, Julião Oliveira; Rocha, Mário de Seixas

2013-01-01

Objective To investigate the association between the rapid shallow breathing index and successful extubation in patients with traumatic brain injury. Methods This study was a prospective study conducted in patients with traumatic brain injury of both genders who underwent mechanical ventilation for at least two days and who passed a spontaneous breathing trial. The minute volume and respiratory rate were measured using a ventilometer, and the data were used to calculate the rapid shallow breathing index (respiratory rate/tidal volume). The dependent variable was the extubation outcome: reintubation after up to 48 hours (extubation failure) or not (extubation success). The independent variable was the rapid shallow breathing index measured after a successful spontaneous breathing trial. Results The sample comprised 119 individuals, including 111 (93.3%) males. The average age of the sample was 35.0±12.9 years old. The average duration of mechanical ventilation was 8.1±3.6 days. A total of 104 (87.4%) participants achieved successful extubation. No association was found between the rapid shallow breathing index and extubation success. Conclusion The rapid shallow breathing index was not associated with successful extubation in patients with traumatic brain injury. PMID:24213084

Learning From Experience: Improving Early Tracheal Extubation Success After Congenital Cardiac Surgery.

PubMed

Winch, Peter D; Staudt, Anna M; Sebastian, Roby; Corridore, Marco; Tumin, Dmitry; Simsic, Janet; Galantowicz, Mark; Naguib, Aymen; Tobias, Joseph D

2016-07-01

The many advantages of early tracheal extubation following congenital cardiac surgery in young infants and children are now widely recognized. Benefits include avoiding the morbidity associated with prolonged intubation and the consequences of sedation and positive pressure ventilation in the setting of altered cardiopulmonary physiology. Our practice of tracheal extubation of young infants in the operating room following cardiac surgery has evolved and new challenges in the arena of postoperative sedation and pain management have appeared. Review our institutional outcomes associated with early tracheal extubation following congenital cardiac surgery. Inclusion criteria included all children less than 1 year old who underwent congenital cardiac surgery between October 1, 2010, and October 24, 2013. A total of 416 patients less than 1 year old were included. Of the 416 patients, 234 underwent tracheal extubation in the operating room (56%) with 25 requiring reintubation (10.7%), either immediately or following admission to the cardiothoracic ICU. Of the 25 patients extubated in the operating room who required reintubation, 22 failed within 24 hours of cardiothoracic ICU admission; 10 failures were directly related to narcotic doses that resulted in respiratory depression. As a result of this review, we have instituted changes in our cardiothoracic ICU postoperative care plans. We have developed a neonatal delirium score, and have adopted the "Kangaroo Care" approach that was first popularized in neonatal ICUs. This provision allows for the early parental holding of infants following admission to the cardiothoracic ICU and allows for appropriately selected parents to sleep in the same beds alongside their postoperative children.

Experience with intubated patients does not affect the accidental extubation rate in pediatric intensive care units and intensive care nurseries.

PubMed

Frank, B S; Lewis, R J

1997-06-01

Accidental extubation is a potentially serious event for pediatric or neonatal patients with respiratory failure, especially in clinical settings in which personnel capable of performing reintubation may not be readily available. Thus the rate of accidental extubation in small intensive care units that operate without 24-hour in-house physician availability may be an important quality assurance indicator. The objective of this study were to determine the accidental extubation rate at a single small pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) and compare it with published reports. This study was carried out in a six-bed PICU at Washoe Medical Center in Reno, Nevada, with a relatively low level of patient acuity, as measured by PRISM score and the frequency of intubation, and without 24-hour in-house physician availability. All intubated patients admitted during the 5-year period from January 1, 1989 to December 31, 1993 were included. The primary outcome measure was the occurrence of accidental extubation. We observed only two accidental extubations in 1,749 intubated-patient-days (IPD) (0.114 accidental extubations/100 IPD [95% confidence interval 0.014-0.413 accidental extubations/ 100 IPD]). This rate of accidental extubation was compared with data in published reports from neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) and PICUs, which ranged from 0.14 accidental extubations/100 IPD to 4.36 accidental extubations/100 IPD. The dependence of the observed accidental extubation rate on unit size and institutional experience with intubated patients, as measured by the average number of intubated patients, was examined. We found no evidence that the accidental extubation rate is higher in smaller units or units with less institutional experience. Low rates can be achieved in small units with low acuity.

Unplanned extubations in an intensive care unit: Findings from a critical incident technique.

PubMed

Danielis, Matteo; Chiaruttini, Simona; Palese, Alvisa

2018-05-15

Patients on mechanical ventilation are at risk of experiencing a potentially life-threatening unplanned extubation in the intensive care unit, which can lead to arrhythmias, bronchial aspiration, difficulty in reintubation or even sudden cardiac arrest. Although incidence and outcomes of the phenomenon have been documented in several quantitative studies, no studies have investigated the antecedents as experienced by critical care nurses. To gain a greater understanding of the antecedents of unplanned extubations. A qualitative study design involving the critical-incident technique. A total of 10 registered nurses who reported one or more episodes of unplanned extubations were involved in an in-depth interview. According to the nurses' experience, episodes of unplanned extubations are determined by predisposing, precipitating and mediating factors. The predisposing factors have been recognised in the (a) weaning programme (expected/unexpected decreased sedation) and in the (b) patient factors (increased needs due to discomfort, restlessness and desire to communicate). The precipitating factors have been divided into (a) organisational (failures in multi-professional communication), (b) environmental (excessive environmental chaos and barriers preventing direct surveillance) and (c) nursing care factors (ensuring privacy by creating barriers, avoiding disturbing other patients and poor nurse-to-patient ratio). Among the mediating factors, which are affected by the precipitating factors, decreased surveillance and mechanical restraints' use have been identified. Identifying risk factors of unplanned extubation, specifically those that are modifiable, such as increasing interprofessional communication, reducing excessive environment chaos, implementing strategies aimed at overcoming barriers threatening direct surveillance and ensuring appropriate nurse-to-patient ratio, can prevent the occurrence of these events. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A multichannel model-based methodology for extubation readiness decision of patients on weaning trials.

PubMed

Casaseca-de-la-Higuera, Pablo; Simmross-Wattenberg, Federico; Martín-Fernández, Marcos; Alberola-López, Carlos

2009-07-01

Discontinuation of mechanical ventilation is a challenging task that involves a number of subtle clinical issues. The gradual removal of the respiratory support (referred to as weaning) should be performed as soon as autonomous respiration can be sustained. However, the prediction rate of successful extubation is still below 25% based on previous studies. Construction of an automatic system that provides information on extubation readiness is thus desirable. Recent works have demonstrated that the breathing pattern variability is a useful extubation readiness indicator, with improving performance when multiple respiratory signals are jointly processed. However, the existing methods for predictor extraction present several drawbacks when length-limited time series are to be processed in heterogeneous groups of patients. In this paper, we propose a model-based methodology for automatic readiness prediction. It is intended to deal with multichannel, nonstationary, short records of the breathing pattern. Results on experimental data yield an 87.27% of successful readiness prediction, which is in line with the best figures reported in the literature. A comparative analysis shows that our methodology overcomes the shortcomings of so far proposed methods when applied to length-limited records on heterogeneous groups of patients.

Cerebral and somatic oxygen saturations after repair of tetralogy of Fallot: effects of extubation on regional blood flow.

PubMed

Bronicki, Ronald A; Checchia, Paul A; Anas, Nick G; Adams, Gerald J; Penny, Daniel J; Bleiweis, Mark S; Shekerdemian, Lara S

2013-02-01

After repair of tetralogy of Fallot, some patients experience a low cardiac output state owing to right ventricular diastolic failure. Negative-pressure ventilation has been shown to improve cardiac output in these patients. What has not been evaluated is the effect of extubation and loading of the respiratory muscles on the distribution of cardiac output after repair of tetralogy of Fallot. In 23 consecutive patients undergoing repair of tetralogy of Fallot, standard hemodynamic variables, central venous oxygen saturations, and near infrared spectroscopy of the brain, mesenteric, and renal circulations were monitored for 30 minutes before and after extubation. With extubation, the systolic blood pressure increased significantly from 96 ± 11 to 106 ± 15 mm Hg (p = 0.002) while the heart rate remained unchanged. With extubation, the central venous oxygen saturation increased significantly from 65% ± 7% to 70% ± 10% (p = 0.003). Cerebral oxygen saturations increased significantly from 67% ± 10% to 72% ± 9% (p = 0.0001), whereas mesenteric oxygenation fell significantly from 74% ± 15% to 72% ± 15% (p = 0.04). Renal oxygenation was unaffected by extubation. Cardiac output and cerebral oxygenation increased significantly during spontaneous respiration, the latter suggesting that the brain was in or approaching an oxygen supply-dependent state before extubation. Despite the increase in cardiac output, the presumed increase in respiratory pump perfusion, as well as the concurrent increase in cerebral perfusion, came at the expense of mesenteric perfusion. Renal oxygenation remained unchanged with extubation. Copyright © 2013 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A New Method for Extubation: Comparison between Conventional and New Methods.

PubMed

Yousefshahi, Fardin; Barkhordari, Khosro; Movafegh, Ali; Tavakoli, Vida; Paknejad, Omalbanin; Bina, Payvand; Yousefshahi, Hadi; Sheikh Fathollahi, Mahmood

2012-08-01

Extubation is associated with the risk of complications such as accumulated secretion above the endotracheal tube cuff, eventual atelectasia following a reduction in pulmonary volumes because of a lack of physiological positive end expiratory pressure, and intra-tracheal suction. In order to reduce these complications, and, based on basic physiological principles, a new practical extubation method is presented in this article. The study was designed as a six-month prospective cross-sectional clinical trial. Two hundred fifty-seven patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) were divided into two groups based on their scheduled surgery time. The first group underwent the conventional extubation method, while the other group was extubated according to a new described method. Arterial blood gas (ABG) analysis results before and after extubation were compared between the two groups to find the effect of the extubation method on the ABG parameters and the oxygenation profile. In all time intervals, the partial pressure of oxygen in arterial blood / fraction of inspired oxygen (PaO(2)/FiO(2)) ratio in the new method group patients was improved compared to that in the conventional method; some differences, like PaO(2)/FiO(2) four hours after extubation, were statistically significant, however (p value=0.0063). The new extubation method improved some respiratory parameters and thus attenuated oxygenation complications and amplified oxygenation after extubation.

Fast Track Extubation In Adult Patients On Pump Open Heart Surgery At A Tertiary Care Hospital.

PubMed

Akhtar, Mohammad Irfan; Sharif, Hasanat; Hamid, Mohammad; Samad, Khalid; Khan, Fazal Hameed

2016-01-01

Fast-track cardiac surgery programs have been established as the standard of cardiac surgical care. Studies have shown that early extubation in elective cardiac surgery patients, including coronary and non-coronary open-heart surgery patients does not increase perioperative morbidity and mortality. The objective of this observational study was to determine the success and failure profile of fast track extubation (FTE) practice in adult open-heart surgical patients. The study was conducted at cardiac operating room and Cardiac Intensive Care Unit (CICU) of a tertiary care hospital for a period of nine months, i.e., from Oct 2014 to June-2015. All on pump elective adult cardiac surgery patients including isolated CABG, isolated Valve replacements, combined procedures and aortic root replacements were enrolled in the study. Standardized anesthetic technique was adopted. Surgical and bypass techniques were tailored according to the procedure. Success of Fast track extubation was defined as extubation within 6 hours of arrival in CICU. A total of 290 patients were recruited. The average age of the patients was 56.3±10.5 years. There were 77.6% male and 22.4% female patients. Overall success rate was 51.9% and failure rate was 48.1%. The peri-operative renal insufficiency, cross clamp time and CICU stay (hours) were significantly lower in success group. Re-intubation rate was 0.74%. The perioperative parameters were significantly better in success group and the safety was also demonstrated in the patients who were fast tracked successfully. To implement the practice in its full capacity and benefit, a fast track protocol needs to be devised to standardize the current practices and to disseminate the strategy among junior anaesthesiologists, perfusionists and nursing staff.

The effect of caudal vs intravenous morphine on early extubation and postoperative analgesic requirements for stage 2 and 3 single-ventricle palliation: a double blind randomized trial.

PubMed

Stuth, Eckehard A E; Berens, Richard J; Staudt, Susan R; Robertson, Frederick A; Scott, John P; Stucke, Astrid G; Hoffman, George M; Troshynski, Todd J; Tweddell, James S T; Zuperku, Edward J

2011-04-01

High-dose single-shot caudal morphine has been postulated to facilitate early extubation and to lower initial analgesic requirements after staged single-ventricle (SV) palliation. With Institutional Review Board approval and written informed parental consent, 64 SV children aged 75-1667 days were randomized to pre-incisional caudal morphine-bupivacaine (100 μg·kg(-1) morphine (concentration 0.1%), mixed with 0.25% bupivacaine with 1 : 200,000 epinephrine, total 1 ml·kg(-1)) and postcardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) intravenous (IV) droperidol (75 μg·kg(-1)) ('active caudal group') or pre-incisional caudal saline (1 ml·kg(-1)) and post-CPB IV morphine (150 μg·kg(-1)) with droperidol (75 μg·kg(-1)) ('active IV group'). Assignment remained concealed from families and the care teams throughout the trial. Early extubation failure rates (primary or reintubation within 24 h), time to first postoperative rescue morphine analgesia, and 12-h postoperative morphine requirements were assessed for extubated patients. Thirty-one (12 stage 2) SV patients received caudal morphine and 32 (15 stage 2) received IV morphine. Extubation failure rates were 6/31 (19%) for caudal and 5/32 (16%) for IV morphine. For successfully extubated patients (n = 54), active caudal treatment significantly delayed the need for postoperative rescue morphine in stage 3 patients (P = 0.02) but not in stage 2 patients (P = 0.189) (Kaplan-Meier survival analysis with LogRank test). The reduction in 12-h postoperative morphine requirements with active caudal treatment did not reach significance (P = 0.085) but morphine requirements were significantly higher for stage 2 compared with stage 3 patients (P < 0.001) (two-way anova in n = 50 extubated patients). High-dose caudal morphine with bupivacaine delayed the need for rescue morphine analgesia in stage 3 patients. All stage 2 patients required early rescue morphine and had significantly higher postoperative 12-h morphine requirements than stage 3

Comparison of the effectiveness of high flow nasal oxygen cannula vs. standard non-rebreather oxygen face mask in post-extubation intensive care unit patients.

PubMed

Brotfain, Evgeni; Zlotnik, Alexander; Schwartz, Andrei; Frenkel, Amit; Koyfman, Leonid; Gruenbaum, Shaun E; Klein, Moti

2014-11-01

Optimal oxygen supply is the cornerstone of the management of critically ill patients after extubation, especially in patients at high risk for extubation failure. In recent years, high flow oxygen system devices have offered an appropriate alternative to standard oxygen therapy devices such as conventional face masks and nasal prongs. To assess the clinical effects of high flow nasal cannula (HFNC) compared with standard oxygen face masks in Intensive Care Unit (ICU) patients after extubation. We retrospectively analyzed 67 consecutive ventilated critical care patients in the ICU over a period of 1 year. The patients were allocated to two treatment groups: HFNC (34 patients, group 1) and non-rebreathing oxygen face mask (NRB) (33 patients, group 2). Vital respiratory and hemodynamic parameters were assessed prior to extubation and 6 hours after extubation. The primary clinical outcomes measured were improvement in oxygenation, ventilation-free days, re-intubation, ICU length of stay, and mortality. The two groups demonstrated similar hemodynamic patterns before and after extubation. The respiratory rate was slightly elevated in both groups after extubation with no differences observed between groups. There were no statistically significant clinical differences in PaCO2. However, the use of HFNC resulted in improved PaO2/FiO2 post-extubation (P < 0.05). There were more ventilator-free days in the HFNC group (P< 0.05) and fewer patients required reintubation (1 vs. 6). There were no differences in ICU length of stay or mortality. This study demonstrated better oxygenation for patients treated with HFNC compared with NRB after extubation. HFNC may be more effective than standard oxygen supply devices for oxygenation in the post-extubation period.

Early Extubation in the Operating Room after Congenital Open-Heart Surgery.

PubMed

Fukunishi, Takuma; Oka, Norihiko; Yoshii, Takeshi; Kobayashi, Kensuke; Inoue, Nobuyuki; Horai, Tetsuya; Kitamura, Tadashi; Okamoto, Hirotsugu; Miyaji, Kagami

2018-01-27

Early extubation in the operating room after congenital open-heart surgery is feasible, but extubation in the intensive care unit after the operation remains common practice at many institutions. The purpose of this study was to evaluate retrospectively the adequacy of our early-extubation strategy and exclusion criteria through analysis based on the Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery method (RACHS-1).This retrospective analysis included 359 cases requiring cardiopulmonary bypass (male, 195; female, 164; weight > 3.0 kg; aged 1 month to 18 years). Neonates and preoperatively intubated patients were excluded. Other exclusion criteria included severe preoperative pulmonary hypertension, high-dose catecholamine requirement after cardiopulmonary bypass, delayed sternal closure, laryngomalacia, serious bleeding, and delayed awakening. The early-extubation rates were compared between age groups and RACHS-1 classes.Overall, 83% of cases (298/359) were extubated in the operating room, classified by RACHS-1 categories as follows: 1, 59/59 (100%); 2, 164/200 (84%); 3, 61/78 (78%); and 4-6, 10/22 (45%). The early extubation rate in categories 1-3 (86%, 288/337) was significantly higher than for categories 4-6 (45.5%, 10/22) (P < 0.001). Because they met one of the exclusion criteria, 61 patients (17%) were not extubated in the operating room. Eight patients (2.7%) required re-intubation after early extubation in the operating room, and longer operation time was significantly associated with re-intubation (P < 0.001).Extubation in the operating room after congenital open-heart surgery was feasible based on our criteria, especially for patients in the low RACHS-1 categories, and involves a very low rate of re-intubation.

Evaluation of cough peak expiratory flow as a predictor of successful mechanical ventilation discontinuation: a narrative review of the literature.

PubMed

Jiang, Chuan; Esquinas, Antonio; Mina, Bushra

2017-01-01

A crucial step in the transition from mechanical ventilation to extubation is the successful performance of a spontaneous breathing trial (SBT). The American College of Chest Physicians (ACCP) Guidelines recommend removal of the endotracheal tube upon successful completion of a SBT. However, this does not guarantee successful extubation as there remains a risk of re-intubation. Guidelines have outlined ventilator liberation protocols, selected use of non-invasive ventilation on extubation, early mobilization, and dynamic ventilator metrics to prevent and better predict extubation failure. However, a significant percentage of patients still fail mechanical ventilation discontinuation. A common reason for re-intubation is having a weak cough strength, which reflects the inability to protect the airway. Evaluation of cough strength via objective measures using peak expiratory flow rate is a non-invasive and easily reproducible assessment which can predict extubation failure. We conducted a narrative review of the literature regarding use of cough strength as a predictive index for extubation failure risk. Results of our review show that cough strength, quantified objectively with a cough peak expiratory flow measurement (CPEF), is strongly associated with extubation success. Furthermore, various cutoff thresholds have been identified and can provide reasonable diagnostic accuracy and predictive power for extubation failure. These results demonstrate that measurement of the CPEF can be a useful tool to predict extubation failure in patients on MV who have passed a SBT. In addition, the data suggest that this diagnostic modality may reduce ICU length of stay, ICU expenditures, and morbidity and mortality.

[Factors associated with atelectasis following extubation in very low weight premature newborns].

PubMed

Castilla-Castilla, Cristina María Del Carmen; Vidales-Roque, Lydia Beatriz; Pérez-Durán, Juana; Tena-Reyes, Daniel; Tapia-Rombo, Carlos Antonio

2014-01-01

Atelectasis is a decrease of lung volume caused by airway obstruction or pressure on the external part of the lung. It is common after surgery and extubation. The purpose of this investigation was to determine factors related with alectasis following extubation in preterm neonates with a weight under 1250 g who were referred to a neonatal intensive care unit. The study was conducted in neonates admitted to a neonatal intensive care unit requiring mechanically assisted ventilation. Preterm neonates born at 28 to 36 weeks' gestation and with 0 to 28 days' extrauterine life, with mechanically assisted ventilation for at least 24 hours, and that when undergoing planned extubation had a weight under 1250 g were included. Two comparative groups were formed: group A, with alectasis after extubation; group B, without alectasis after extubation. As factors associated with alectasis after extubation, reintubation in two or more occasions and cycling higher than 20 per minute, which were statistically relevant, were identified. In addition to previous general measures to prevent alectasis, extubation with ventilation not higher tan 20 cycles per minute should be programmed and reintubation should be avoided as much as possible.

Use of an Airway Exchange Catheter-Assisted Extubation With Continuous End-Tidal Carbon Dioxide Monitoring in a Pediatric Patient With a Known Difficult Airway: A Case Report.

PubMed

Yegian, Courtney C; Volz, Lana M; Galgon, Richard E

2018-05-11

Tracheal extubation in children with known difficult airways is associated with an increased risk of adverse events. Currently, there is no reliable measure to predict the need for emergent reintubation due to airway inadequacy. Airway exchange catheter-assisted extubation has been shown to be a useful adjunct in decreasing the risk of adverse events due to failed extubation. We report a case of using an airway exchange catheter-assisted extubation with continuous end-tidal carbon dioxide monitoring for a pediatric patient with a known difficult airway.

The Assessment of the Risk of Unplanned Extubation in an Adult Intensive Care Unit.

PubMed

Aydoğan, Semine; Kaya, Nurten

In order to plan and implement nursing intervention to reduce the incidence rate of unplanned extubation problem in the intensive care unit (ICU), it is necessary to determine the risk factors of unplanned extubation and the patients under risk. This study was undertaken with the aim of evaluating the risk of unplanned extubation of endotracheal tube in adult ICU. This was a case-control study. The population constituted patients hospitalized in the adult ICU during 1-year period in a university hospital. The sample from this population was composed of patients whose extubation was unplanned (30 patients) and the randomly selected patients (60 patients) who were intubated at the same time in the ICU for each patient whose extubation was unplanned. In data collection, the Richmond Agitation-Sedation Scale, Glasgow Coma Scale, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II were utilized. According to the findings, the variables such as sex, age, mechanical ventilation period, and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II and Glasgow Coma Scale scores did not have any effect on the unplanned extubation, but variables such as internal medicine diseases and Richmond Agitation-Sedation Scale did have an effect. It was also revealed that there was no extubation plan in most of the unplanned extubation group, the nurse was anticipating the unplanned extubation, the patient was intubated again, and a complication occurred. The patients who are provided inadequate sedation and analgesia and who have problems in their respiratory system are under risk of unplanned extubation. In order to prevent unplanned extubation, an adequate amount of sedation and private nursing care should be provided to patients in the ICU.

Efficacy of a new technique - INtubate-RECruit-SURfactant-Extubate - "IN-REC-SUR-E" - in preterm neonates with respiratory distress syndrome: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Vento, Giovanni; Pastorino, Roberta; Boni, Luca; Cota, Francesco; Carnielli, Virgilio; Cools, Filip; Dani, Carlo; Mosca, Fabio; Pillow, Jane; Polglase, Graeme; Tagliabue, Paolo; van Kaam, Anton H; Ventura, Maria Luisa; Tana, Milena; Tirone, Chiara; Aurilia, Claudia; Lio, Alessandra; Ricci, Cinzia; Gambacorta, Alessandro; Consigli, Chiara; D'Onofrio, Danila; Gizzi, Camilla; Massenzi, Luca; Cardilli, Viviana; Casati, Alessandra; Bottino, Roberto; Pontiggia, Federica; Ciarmoli, Elena; Martinelli, Stefano; Ilardi, Laura; Colnaghi, Mariarosa; Matassa, Piero Giuseppe; Vendettuoli, Valentina; Villani, Paolo; Fusco, Francesca; Gazzolo, Diego; Ricotti, Alberto; Ferrero, Federica; Stasi, Ilaria; Magaldi, Rosario; Maffei, Gianfranco; Presta, Giuseppe; Perniola, Roberto; Messina, Francesco; Montesano, Giovanna; Poggi, Chiara; Giordano, Lucio; Roma, Enza; Grassia, Carolina; Ausanio, Gaetano; Sandri, Fabrizio; Mescoli, Giovanna; Giura, Francesco; Garani, Giampaolo; Solinas, Agostina; Lucente, Maria; Nigro, Gabriella; Del Vecchio, Antonello; Petrillo, Flavia; Orfeo, Luigi; Grappone, Lidia; Quartulli, Lorenzo; Scorrano, Antonio; Messner, Hubert; Staffler, Alex; Gargano, Giancarlo; Balestri, Eleonora; Nobile, Stefano; Cacace, Caterina; Meli, Valerio; Dallaglio, Sara; Pasqua, Betta; Mattia, Loretta; Gitto, Eloisa; Vitaliti, Marcello; Re, Maria Paola; Vedovato, Stefania; Grison, Alessandra; Berardi, Alberto; Torcetta, Francesco; Guidotti, Isotta; di Fabio, Sandra; Maranella, Eugenia; Mondello, Isabella; Visentin, Stefano; Tormena, Francesca

2016-08-18

Although beneficial in clinical practice, the INtubate-SURfactant-Extubate (IN-SUR-E) method is not successful in all preterm neonates with respiratory distress syndrome, with a reported failure rate ranging from 19 to 69 %. One of the possible mechanisms responsible for the unsuccessful IN-SUR-E method, requiring subsequent re-intubation and mechanical ventilation, is the inability of the preterm lung to achieve and maintain an "optimal" functional residual capacity. The importance of lung recruitment before surfactant administration has been demonstrated in animal studies showing that recruitment leads to a more homogeneous surfactant distribution within the lungs. Therefore, the aim of this study is to compare the application of a recruitment maneuver using the high-frequency oscillatory ventilation (HFOV) modality just before the surfactant administration followed by rapid extubation (INtubate-RECruit-SURfactant-Extubate: IN-REC-SUR-E) with IN-SUR-E alone in spontaneously breathing preterm infants requiring nasal continuous positive airway pressure (nCPAP) as initial respiratory support and reaching pre-defined CPAP failure criteria. In this study, 206 spontaneously breathing infants born at 24(+0)-27(+6) weeks' gestation and failing nCPAP during the first 24 h of life, will be randomized to receive an HFOV recruitment maneuver (IN-REC-SUR-E) or no recruitment maneuver (IN-SUR-E) just prior to surfactant administration followed by prompt extubation. The primary outcome is the need for mechanical ventilation within the first 3 days of life. Infants in both groups will be considered to have reached the primary outcome when they are not extubated within 30 min after surfactant administration or when they meet the nCPAP failure criteria after extubation. From all available data no definitive evidence exists about a positive effect of recruitment before surfactant instillation, but a rationale exists for testing the following hypothesis: a lung recruitment

Cough augmentation techniques for extubation or weaning critically ill patients from mechanical ventilation.

PubMed

Rose, Louise; Adhikari, Neill Kj; Leasa, David; Fergusson, Dean A; McKim, Douglas

2017-01-11

There are various reasons why weaning and extubation failure occur, but ineffective cough and secretion retention can play a significant role. Cough augmentation techniques, such as lung volume recruitment or manually- and mechanically-assisted cough, are used to prevent and manage respiratory complications associated with chronic conditions, particularly neuromuscular disease, and may improve short- and long-term outcomes for people with acute respiratory failure. However, the role of cough augmentation to facilitate extubation and prevent post-extubation respiratory failure is unclear. Our primary objective was to determine extubation success using cough augmentation techniques compared to no cough augmentation for critically-ill adults and children with acute respiratory failure admitted to a high-intensity care setting capable of managing mechanically-ventilated people (such as an intensive care unit, specialized weaning centre, respiratory intermediate care unit, or high-dependency unit).Secondary objectives were to determine the effect of cough augmentation techniques on reintubation, weaning success, mechanical ventilation and weaning duration, length of stay (high-intensity care setting and hospital), pneumonia, tracheostomy placement and tracheostomy decannulation, and mortality (high-intensity care setting, hospital, and after hospital discharge). We evaluated harms associated with use of cough augmentation techniques when applied via an artificial airway (or non-invasive mask once extubated/decannulated), including haemodynamic compromise, arrhythmias, pneumothorax, haemoptysis, and mucus plugging requiring airway change and the type of person (such as those with neuromuscular disorders or weakness and spinal cord injury) for whom these techniques may be efficacious. We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL; Issue 4, 2016), MEDLINE (OvidSP) (1946 to April 2016), Embase (OvidSP) (1980 to April 2016), CINAHL (EBSCOhost) (1982

Multivariable analysis of anesthetic factors associated with time to extubation in dogs.

PubMed

Kleine, Stephanie; Hofmeister, Erik; Egan, Katrina

2014-12-01

The purpose of this study was to identify factors that prolong the time to extubation in dogs. Anesthetic records of 900 dogs at a university teaching hospital were searched. Multiple linear regression was used to compare independent predictors (patient demographics, anesthetic and intraoperative variables) with the dependent variable (time to extubation). Induction with propofol (P < 0.025) was associated with a shorter time to extubation, while premedication with acepromazine (P = 0.000) was associated with a longer time to extubation. Time to extubation was increased by 0.311 minutes for every kilogram increase in body weight (P = 0.000), 5.924 minutes for every 1 °C loss in body temperature (P = 0.0000), and by 0.096 minutes for every 1 minute increase in anesthetic duration (P = 0.000). Anesthetic variables, which can be manipulated by the anesthetist, include choice of premedication and induction drugs, hypothermia, and duration of anesthesia. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Does extubation result in haemodynamic instability in patients following coronary artery bypass grafts?

PubMed

Walthall, H; Ray, S; Robson, D

2001-10-01

Coronary heart disease and its management continue to be at the centre of Government health policy. The present political climate demands clinical effectiveness and best practice should be established, while maintaining the philosophy of cost-effectiveness and resource management. These directives have led practitioners to question the care of patients following coronary artery bypass surgery, in particular the role of mechanical ventilation and the subsequent act of extubation. A retrospective study of 89 patients who had coronary artery bypass grafts (emergency and elective) was undertaken, to establish if extubation had a significant effect on the haemodynamic status of patients with variable degrees of left ventricular function (19% with poor left ventricular function). The study found that extubation was achieved within a mean time of 4.97 hours following return from surgery. Extubation resulted in a significant increase in heart rate (P = 0.001), as well as a respiratory acidosis (pCO2: P = 0.000; pH: P = 0.000). However, the stability of the patient was not compromised, with neither mean arterial blood pressure (P = 0.825) nor oxygenation levels (P = 0.267) being significantly altered by extubation. On multivariate analysis, the act of extubation had no significant effect on any of the dependent variables. These results suggest that it is not extubation alone that has an impact on the haemodynamic stability of patients following coronary artery bypass grafts, but that this is indeed multifactorial. Therefore extubation is 'safe' practice for patients with varying degrees of left ventricular function following coronary artery bypass grafts. Limitations of the study are acknowledged.

Early extubation after cardiac surgery: emotional status in the early postoperative period.

PubMed

Silbert, B S; Santamaria, J D; Kelly, W J; O'brien, J L; Blyth, C M; Wong, M Y; Allen, N B

2001-08-01

To compare the emotional state during the first 3 days after coronary artery surgery of patients who had undergone early versus conventional extubation. A prospective, randomized, controlled trial. University hospital, single center. Eligible patients (n = 100) presenting for elective coronary artery surgery, randomized to an early extubation group or a conventional extubation group. Emotional status was measured by the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HAD), the Self Assessment Manikin (SAM), and the Multiple Affect Adjective Check List-Revised (MAACL-R). Tests were administered preoperatively and on the 1st and 3rd days postoperatively. Of patients in the conventional extubation group, 30% showed moderate-to-severe depressive symptoms (HAD score >10) on day 3 postoperatively compared with 8% of patients in the early extubation group (p = 0.02). There was a clinically insignificant increase in MAACL-R depression score on the 1st postoperative day within both groups but no other differences within or between groups in SAM or MAACL-R scores. Early extubation results in fewer patients displaying depressive symptoms on the 3rd postoperative day but appears to have little effect on other measurements of emotional status. Anesthetic management during coronary artery bypass graft surgery may play an important role in the overall well-being of the patient by decreasing the incidence of postoperative depression. Copyright 2001 by W.B. Saunders Company.

A randomized controlled trial of post-extubation bubble continuous positive airway pressure versus Infant Flow Driver continuous positive airway pressure in preterm infants with respiratory distress syndrome.

PubMed

Gupta, Samir; Sinha, Sunil K; Tin, Win; Donn, Steven M

2009-05-01

To compare the efficacy and safety of bubble continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) and Infant Flow Driver (IFD) CPAP for the post-extubation management of preterm infants with respiratory distress syndrome (RDS). A total of 140 preterm infants at 24 to 29 weeks' gestation or with a birth weight of 600 to 1500 g who were ventilated at birth for RDS were randomized to receive either IFD CPAP (a variable-flow device) or bubble CPAP (a continuous-flow device). A standardized protocol was used for extubation and CPAP. No crossover was allowed. The primary outcome was successful extubation maintained for at least 72 hours. Secondary outcomes included successful extubation maintained for 7 days, total duration of CPAP support, chronic lung disease, and complications of prematurity. Seventy-one infants were randomized to bubble CPAP, and 69 were randomized to IFD CPAP. Mean gestational age and birth weight were similar in the 2 groups, as were the proportions of infants who achieved successful extubation for 72 hours and for 7 days. However, the median duration of CPAP support was 50% shorter in the infants on bubble CPAP. Moreover, in the subset of infants who were ventilated for less than 14 days, the infants on bubble CPAP had a significantly lower extubation failure rate. There was no difference in the incidence of chronic lung disease or other complications between the 2 study groups. Bubble CPAP is as effective as IFD CPAP in the post-extubation management of infants with RDS; however, in infants ventilated for < or = 14 days, bubble CPAP is associated with a significantly higher rate of successful extubation. Bubble CPAP also is associated with a significantly reduced duration of CPAP support.

[Unplanned extubation in ICU, and the relevance of non-dependent patient variables the quality of care].

PubMed

González-Castro, A; Peñasco, Y; Blanco, C; González-Fernández, C; Domínguez, M J; Rodríguez-Borregán, J C

2014-01-01

To evaluate, for a consecutive year, the magnitude of unplanned extubation, looking for non-dependent patient variables. Prospective, observational study of cases and controls in a mixed intensive care unit within in a tertiary hospital. Patients were considered cases with more than 24 hours who had an episode of unplanned extubation. Prospective collection of variables case as time of unplanned extubation (collection time), identification of the box where the patient was admitted, presence and type of physical restraint, development of ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) and death. There were 17 unplanned extubation in 15 patients, 1.21 unplanned extubation per 100 days of MV. The unplanned extubation had an inhomogeneous spatial distribution (number of boxes). The time distribution of cases compared with controls showed significant differences in time distribution (P=.02). The comparative analysis between cases and controls, showed increased mortality, increased length of ICU stay, longer hospital stay and increased risk for VAP when patients suffer an episode of unplanned extubation. Unplanned extubation occurs most frequently in a given time slot of the day, may play a role in the spatial location of the patient; occurs most often in patients who are in the process of weaning from mechanical ventilation, and develop greater VAP. Copyright © 2014 SECA. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Respiratory Therapists' Experiences and Attitudes Regarding Terminal Extubations and End-of-Life Care.

PubMed

Grandhige, Anjali P; Timmer, Marjorie; O'Neill, Michael J; Binney, Zachary O; Quest, Tammie E

2016-07-01

Respiratory therapists (RTs) routinely care for patients with life-limiting illnesses and in some hospitals are responsible for terminal extubations. Data on how such experiences affect RTs are scarce. The objective of this work was to survey RTs at 2 academic medical centers about their experiences caring for patients with terminal extubations. An online survey was distributed to the hospitals' RTs. Survey data included demographics and experiences with end-of-life care and terminal extubations. The survey was derived from previously published questionnaires plus input from hospital RT leaders. Sixty-five of 173 RTs (37.6%) responded. Of these, 42.4% were ≥50 y old, and 62.7% were female. 20.3% had ≤5 y experience; 52.5% had ≥16 y. 93.8% self-reported being involved in at least one terminal extubation; of those, 36.1% reported performing ≥20. Nearly half (47.5%) wanted to be involved in family meetings discussing terminal extubations, but just 6.6% were frequently involved. Only 32.3% felt that they received adequate education regarding terminal illness in RT school; 32.3% reported gathering this knowledge while working. 60.0% wanted more formal education around terminal patient care. 27.9% reported sometimes being uncomfortable with performing a terminal extubation; most of these rarely felt that they had the option not to perform the extubation. RTs are rarely involved in end-of-life discussions despite a desire to be, and they experience situations that generate discomfort. There is demand for more formal RT training around care for terminal patients. Clinical protocols that involve RTs in meetings before ventilator withdrawal should be considered. Copyright © 2016 by Daedalus Enterprises.

Effects of Esmolol on the Prevention of Haemodynamic Responses to Tracheal Extubation after Craniotomy Operations

PubMed Central

Alkaya, Murat Alp; Saraçoğlu, Kemal Tolga; Pehlivan, Gökhan; Eti, Zeynep; Göğüş, Fevzi Yılmaz

2014-01-01

Objective The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of esmolol infusion on the prevention of haemodynamic responses to tracheal extubation in patients undergoing elective craniotomy. Methods With approval from the Medical School Ethics Committee at Marmara University and the patients’ written consent, 30 patients between 20–65 years of age undergoing elective craniotomy were randomly placed in either the Group Esmolol (n=15) or the Group Control (n=15). Anaesthesia was induced with 5–7 mg kg−1 thiopental sodium, 1 μg kg−1 remifentanil, and 0.1 mg kg−1 vecuronium bromide iv, and was maintained with 1 MAC sevoflurane in oxygen-air mixture (50:50) and 0.25 μg kg−1 min−1 remifentanil infusion. At the end of the operation, patients inhaled 100% oxygen after the discontinuation of the anaesthetic agents. For Group Esmolol, 5 min before extubation 2 mg kg−1 esmolol in 50 mL was infused over 10 min (0.2 μg kg−1 min−1), while for Group Control, 50 mL saline was infused over 10 min. The quality of extubation was evaluated with a 5 point scale, recording heat rate, systolic, diastolic, and mean arterial pressures before infusion, 1 min after infusion, during extubation, and at 1, 3, 5, and 10 min after extubation. Results In the esmolol group, systolic, diastolic, and mean arterial pressures, as well as heart rate, decreased significantly after esmolol infusion and were significantly lower than in the control group after extubation (p<0.05). The ratio of patients with an extubation score of one was significantly higher in the esmolol group than in the control group (p<0.05). Conclusion We concluded that 2 mg kg−1 esmolol infusion before extubation can prevent hypertension and tachycardia caused by extubation in patients undergoing elective craniotomy. PMID:27366396

Atelectasis after airway extubation during veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation support.

PubMed

Wang, Hong; Jia, Ming; Mao, Bin; Hou, Xiaotong

2017-09-01

Veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA ECMO) is used in cardiopulmonary failure patients to provide temporary assisted circulation. Usually, prolonged intubation and invasive mechanical ventilation are required in patients with ECMO support. We report on two cases of patients who had no pre-existing injuries of the affected lung, underwent VA ECMO support after open-heart surgery and received airway extubation (AE) or awake ECMO with the recovery of left ventricular ejection fraction. Atelectasis happened after AE and non-invasive positive pressure ventilation attenuated the atelectasis of one patient. The atelectasis of the other patient was corrected 10 hours after weaning from ECMO. Both patients were discharged successfully. Awake VA ECMO for post-cardiac surgery patients should be performed with prudence and needs further research.

Open lung ventilation improves functional residual capacity after extubation in cardiac surgery.

PubMed

Reis Miranda, Dinis; Struijs, Ard; Koetsier, Peter; van Thiel, Robert; Schepp, Ronald; Hop, Wim; Klein, Jan; Lachmann, Burkhard; Bogers, Ad J J C; Gommers, Diederik

2005-10-01

After cardiac surgery, functional residual capacity (FRC) after extubation is reduced significantly. We hypothesized that ventilation according to the open lung concept (OLC) attenuates FRC reduction after extubation. A prospective, single-center, randomized, controlled clinical study. Cardiothoracic operating room and intensive care unit of a university hospital. Sixty-nine patients scheduled for elective coronary artery bypass graft and/or valve surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass. Before surgery, patients were randomly assigned to three groups: (1) conventional ventilation (CV); (2) OLC, started after arrival in the intensive care unit (late open lung); and (3) OLC, started directly after intubation (early open lung). In both OLC groups, recruitment maneuvers were applied until Pao2/Fio2 was >375 Torr (50 kPa). No recruitment maneuvers were applied in the CV group. FRC was measured preoperatively and 1, 3, and 5 days after extubation. Peripheral hemoglobin saturation (Spo2) was measured daily till the third day after extubation while the patient was breathing room air. Hypoxemia was defined by an Spo2 value < or =90%. Averaged over the 5 postoperative days, FRC was significantly higher in the early open lung group and tended to be higher in the late open lung group, in comparison with the CV group (mean +/- sem: CV, 1.8 +/- 0.1; late open lung,1.9 +/- 0.1; and early open lung, 2.2 +/- 0.1l). In the CV group, 37% of the patients were hypoxic on the third day after extubation, compared with none of the patients in both OLC groups. After cardiac surgery, earlier application of OLC resulted in a significantly higher FRC and fewer episodes of hypoxemia than with CV after extubation.

Treatment of addison disease and subsequent hypophosphatemic respiratory failure.

PubMed

Meisterling, Leah; Chawla, Lakhmir S; Seneff, Michael G

2012-01-01

A 38-year-old man was found unresponsive with hypoglycemia by emergency medical service (EMS) personnel. He was intubated in the emergency department after reports of seizure activity. With supportive care and empiric steroids, the patient was extubated the next day. He reported a diagnosis of Addison disease and noncompliance with his steroid replacement therapy. Within 12 hours, respiratory failure and altered mental status required reintubation. Laboratory studies revealed rhabdomyolysis and hypophosphatemia. The replacement of glucose likely stimulated glycolysis, formation of phosphorylated glucose compounds, and an intracellular shift of phosphorus. This patient required phosphate replacement and was extubated on hospital day 5. We report a unique case of hypoglycemia due to Addison disease, leading to hypophosphatemic respiratory failure.

Ventilatory Management and Extubation Criteria of the Neurological/Neurosurgical Patient

PubMed Central

Souter, M. J.; Manno, Edward M.

2013-01-01

Approximately 200 000 patients per year will require mechanical ventilation secondary to neurological injury or disease. The associated mortality, morbidity, and costs are significant. The neurological patient presents a unique set of challenges to airway management, mechanical ventilation, and defining extubation readiness. Neurological injury and disease can directly or indirectly involve the process involved with respiration or airway control. This article will review the basics of airway management and mechanical ventilation in the neurological patient. The current state of the literature evaluating extubation criteria in the neurological patient will also be reviewed. PMID:23983886

Terminal weaning or immediate extubation for withdrawing mechanical ventilation in critically ill patients (the ARREVE observational study).

PubMed

Robert, René; Le Gouge, Amélie; Kentish-Barnes, Nancy; Cottereau, Alice; Giraudeau, Bruno; Adda, Mélanie; Annane, Djillali; Audibert, Juliette; Barbier, François; Bardou, Patrick; Bourcier, Simon; Bourenne, Jeremy; Boyer, Alexandre; Brenas, François; Das, Vincent; Desachy, Arnaud; Devaquet, Jérôme; Feissel, Marc; Ganster, Frédérique; Garrouste-Orgeas, Maïté; Grillet, Guillaume; Guisset, Olivier; Hamidfar-Roy, Rebecca; Hyacinthe, Anne-Claire; Jochmans, Sebastien; Jourdain, Mercé; Lautrette, Alexandre; Lerolle, Nicolas; Lesieur, Olivier; Lion, Fabien; Mateu, Philippe; Megarbane, Bruno; Merceron, Sybille; Mercier, Emmanuelle; Messika, Jonathan; Morin-Longuet, Paul; Philippon-Jouve, Bénédicte; Quenot, Jean-Pierre; Renault, Anne; Repesse, Xavier; Rigaud, Jean-Philippe; Robin, Ségolène; Roquilly, Antoine; Seguin, Amélie; Thevenin, Didier; Tirot, Patrice; Vinatier, Isabelle; Azoulay, Elie; Reignier, Jean

2017-12-01

The relative merits of immediate extubation versus terminal weaning for mechanical ventilation withdrawal are controversial, particularly regarding the experience of patients and relatives. This prospective observational multicentre study (ARREVE) was done in 43 French ICUs to compare terminal weaning and immediate extubation, as chosen by the ICU team. Terminal weaning was a gradual decrease in the amount of ventilatory assistance and immediate extubation was extubation without any previous decrease in ventilatory assistance. The primary outcome was posttraumatic stress symptoms (Impact of Event Scale Revised, IES-R) in relatives 3 months after the death. Secondary outcomes were complicated grief, anxiety, and depression symptoms in relatives; comfort of patients during the dying process; and job strain in staff. We enrolled 212 (85.5%) relatives of 248 patients with terminal weaning and 190 relatives (90.5%) of 210 patients with immediate extubation. Immediate extubation was associated with airway obstruction and a higher mean Behavioural Pain Scale score compared to terminal weaning. In relatives, IES-R scores after 3 months were not significantly different between groups (31.9 ± 18.1 versus 30.5 ± 16.2, respectively; adjusted difference, -1.9; 95% confidence interval, -5.9 to 2.1; p = 0.36); neither were there any differences in complicated grief, anxiety, or depression scores. Assistant nurses had lower job strain scores in the immediate extubation group. Compared to terminal weaning, immediate extubation was not associated with differences in psychological welfare of relatives when each method constituted standard practice in the ICU where it was applied. Patients had more airway obstruction and gasps with immediate extubation. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01818895.

The relationship between in-house attending coverage and nighttime extubation following congenital heart surgery*.

PubMed

Iannucci, Glen J; Oster, Matthew E; Chanani, Nikhil K; Gillespie, Scott E; McCracken, Courtney E; Kanter, Kirk R; Mahle, William T

2014-03-01

Many cardiac ICUs have instituted 24/7 attending physician in-house coverage, which theoretically may allow for more expeditious weaning from ventilation and extubation. We aimed to determine whether this staffing strategy impacts rates of nighttime extubation and duration of mechanical ventilation. National data were obtained from the Virtual PICU System database for all patients admitted to the cardiac ICU following congenital heart surgery in 2011 who required postoperative mechanical ventilation. Contemporaneous data from our local institution were collected in addition to the Virtual PICU System data. The combined dataset (n = 2,429) was divided based on the type of nighttime staffing model in order to compare rates of nighttime extubation and duration of mechanical ventilation between units that used an in-house attending staffing strategy and those that employed nighttime residents, fellows, or midlevel providers only. Institutions that currently use 24/7 in-house attending coverage did not demonstrate statistically significant differences in rates of nighttime extubation or the duration of mechanical ventilation in comparison to units without in-house attendings. Younger patients cared for in non-in-house attending units were more likely to require reintubation. Pediatric patients who have undergone congenital heart surgery can be safely and effectively extubated without the routine presence of an attending physician. The utilization of nighttime in-house attending coverage does not appear to have significant benefits on the rate of nighttime extubation and may not reduce the duration of mechanical ventilation in units that already use in-house residents, fellows, or other midlevel providers.

On-table Extubation after Open Heart Surgery in Children: An Experience from a Tertiary Care Hospital in a Developing Country.

PubMed

Hoda, Mehar; Haque, Anwarul; Aijaz, Fareena; Akhtar, Mohammad I; Rehmat, Amina; Amanullah, Muneer; Hasan, Babar S

2016-01-01

Recent advances in various disciplines of medicine have significantly changed the courses following cardiac surgery in children. On-table extubation (OTE) after open heart surgery in children is evolving. To assess the rate of postoperative complications in children extubated on table after open heart surgery. This is a retrospective, descriptive study. Operating room (OR) then admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU). All pediatric patients (between 0 and 18 years) undergoing open heart surgery between January 2011 and June 2013. On-table extubation. Rates of immediate postoperative complications, i.e., re-intubation, significant bleeding, low cardiac output syndrome, and arrhythmia in PICU, were assessed. Data are presented as frequencies and mean ± standard deviation. A total of 82 patients were included. Mean age at time of operation was 7.25 ± 6.6 years. Fifty-three percent (n = 44) were <5 years old and 64% (n = 53) were men. Ventricular septal defect (47%, n = 39) was the most common lesion, followed by atrial septal defect (36%, n = 30), and tetralogy of Fallot (15%, n = 12), which were repaired. Cardiopulmonary bypass and aortic cross clamp time were 72.3 ± 34.2 and 47.3 ± 27.8 minutes, respectively. The mean inotrope score was 2.66 ± 3.53. There was no mortality in the cohort, whereas 97.8% (n = 80) had no complications during PICU stay. One patient (1.1%) required re-intubation for respiratory failure and one patient (1.1%) had arrhythmia that was medically managed. The mean length of PICU stay was 1.77 ± 0.985 days. On-table extubation in children after open heart surgery was feasible and safe in selected group of patients. There was no major complication observed in the PICU. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Relationship between pre-extubation positive endexpiratory pressure and oxygenation after coronary artery bypass grafting

PubMed Central

Lima, Reijane Oliveira; Borges, Daniel Lago; Costa, Marina de Albuquerque Gonçalves; Baldez, Thiago Eduardo Pereira; Silva, Mayara Gabrielle Barbosa e; Sousa, Felipe André Silva; Soares, Milena de Oliveira; Pinto, Jivago Gentil Moreira

2015-01-01

Introduction After removal of endotracheal tube and artificial ventilation, ventilatory support should be continued, offering oxygen supply to ensure an arterial oxygen saturation close to physiological. Objective The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of positive-end expiratory pressure before extubation on the oxygenation indices of patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting. Methods A randomized clinical trial with seventy-eight patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting divided into three groups and ventilated with different positive-end expiratory pressure levels prior to extubation: Group A, 5 cmH2O (n=32); Group B, 8 cmH2O (n=26); and Group C, 10 cmH2O (n=20). Oxygenation index data were obtained from arterial blood gas samples collected at 1, 3, and 6 h after extubation. Patients with chronic pulmonary disease and those who underwent off-pump, emergency, or combined surgeries were excluded. For statistical analysis, we used Shapiro-Wilk, G, Kruskal-Wallis, and analysis of variance tests and set the level of significance at P<0.05. Results Groups were homogenous with regard to demographic, clinical, and surgical variables. There were no statistically significant differences between groups in the first 6 h after extubation with regard to oxygenation indices and oxygen therapy utilization. Conclusion In this sample of patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting, the use of different positive-end expiratory pressure levels before extubation did not affect gas exchange or oxygen therapy utilization in the first 6 h after endotracheal tube removal. PMID:27163418

Pediatric Critical Care Transport as a Conduit to Terminal Extubation at Home: A Case Series.

PubMed

Noje, Corina; Bernier, Meghan L; Costabile, Philomena M; Klein, Bruce L; Kudchadkar, Sapna R

2017-01-01

To present our single-center's experience with three palliative critical care transports home from the PICU for terminal extubation. We performed a retrospective chart review of patients transported between January 1, 2012, and December 31, 2014. All cases were identified from our institutional pediatric transport database. Patients were terminally ill children unable to separate from mechanical ventilation in the PICU, who were transported home for terminal extubation and end-of-life care according to their families' wishes. Patients underwent palliative care transport home for terminal extubation. The rate of palliative care transports home for terminal extubation during the study period was 2.6 per 100 deaths. The patients were 7 months, 6 years, and 18 years old and had complex chronic conditions. The transfer process was protocolized. The families were approached by the PICU staff during multidisciplinary goals-of-care meetings. Parental expectations were clarified, and home hospice care was arranged pretransfer. All transports were performed by our pediatric critical care transport team, and all terminal extubations were performed by physicians. All patients had unstable medical conditions and urgent needs for transport to comply with the families' wishes for withdrawal of life support and death at home. As such, all three cases presented similar logistic challenges, including establishing do-not-resuscitate status pretransport, having limited time to organize the transport, and coordinating home palliative care services with available community resources. Although a relatively infrequent practice in pediatric critical care, transport home for terminal extubation represents a feasible alternative for families seeking out-of-hospital end-of-life care for their critically ill technology-dependent children. Our single-center experience supports the need for development of formal programs for end-of-life critical care transports to include patient screening tools

Utilizing a Collaborative Learning Model to Promote Early Extubation Following Infant Heart Surgery.

PubMed

Mahle, William T; Nicolson, Susan C; Hollenbeck-Pringle, Danielle; Gaies, Michael G; Witte, Madolin K; Lee, Eva K; Goldsworthy, Michelle; Stark, Paul C; Burns, Kristin M; Scheurer, Mark A; Cooper, David S; Thiagarajan, Ravi; Sivarajan, V Ben; Colan, Steven D; Schamberger, Marcus S; Shekerdemian, Lara S

2016-10-01

To determine whether a collaborative learning strategy-derived clinical practice guideline can reduce the duration of endotracheal intubation following infant heart surgery. Prospective and retrospective data collected from the Pediatric Heart Network in the 12 months pre- and post-clinical practice guideline implementation at the four sites participating in the collaborative (active sites) compared with data from five Pediatric Heart Network centers not participating in collaborative learning (control sites). Ten children's hospitals. Data were collected for infants following two-index operations: 1) repair of isolated coarctation of the aorta (birth to 365 d) and 2) repair of tetralogy of Fallot (29-365 d). There were 240 subjects eligible for the clinical practice guideline at active sites and 259 subjects at control sites. Development and application of early extubation clinical practice guideline. After clinical practice guideline implementation, the rate of early extubation at active sites increased significantly from 11.7% to 66.9% (p < 0.001) with no increase in reintubation rate. The median duration of postoperative intubation among active sites decreased from 21.2 to 4.5 hours (p < 0.001). No statistically significant change in early extubation rates was found in the control sites 11.7% to 13.7% (p = 0.63). At active sites, clinical practice guideline implementation had no statistically significant impact on median ICU length of stay (71.9 hr pre- vs 69.2 hr postimplementation; p = 0.29) for the entire cohort. There was a trend toward shorter ICU length of stay in the tetralogy of Fallot subgroup (71.6 hr pre- vs 54.2 hr postimplementation, p = 0.068). A collaborative learning strategy designed clinical practice guideline significantly increased the rate of early extubation with no change in the rate of reintubation. The early extubation clinical practice guideline did not significantly change postoperative ICU length of stay.

The function and failure of sensory predictions.

PubMed

Bansal, Sonia; Ford, Judith M; Spering, Miriam

2018-04-23

Humans and other primates are equipped with neural mechanisms that allow them to automatically make predictions about future events, facilitating processing of expected sensations and actions. Prediction-driven control and monitoring of perceptual and motor acts are vital to normal cognitive functioning. This review provides an overview of corollary discharge mechanisms involved in predictions across sensory modalities and discusses consequences of predictive coding for cognition and behavior. Converging evidence now links impairments in corollary discharge mechanisms to neuropsychiatric symptoms such as hallucinations and delusions. We review studies supporting a prediction-failure hypothesis of perceptual and cognitive disturbances. We also outline neural correlates underlying prediction function and failure, highlighting similarities across the visual, auditory, and somatosensory systems. In linking basic psychophysical and psychophysiological evidence of visual, auditory, and somatosensory prediction failures to neuropsychiatric symptoms, our review furthers our understanding of disease mechanisms. © 2018 New York Academy of Sciences.

Comparison of the Effects of Magnesium Sulfate and Remifentanil on Hemodynamic Responses During Tracheal Extubation After Laparotomy: A Randomized Double-blinded Trial

PubMed Central

Marashi, Seyed Mojtaba; Hassan Nikkhouei, Reza; Movafegh, Ali; Shoeibi, Gita; Marashi, Shaqayeq

2015-01-01

Background: Because blood pressure and heart rate (HR) elevations during tracheal extubation are common, different medications have been studied to prevent such complications. Objectives: To compare magnesium sulfate, remifentanil, and placebo regarding mean arterial pressure (MAP) and HR changes during/after tracheal extubation, in patients who underwent laparotomy. Materials and Methods: In this randomized double-blinded trial, 120 patients undergoing laparotomy were evenly divided into three groups, including remifentanil (1 mcg/kg), magnesium sulfate (50 mg/kg), or normal saline, as placebo. Hemodynamic responses (MAP and HR) were documented at different times (before operation, during medication administration, immediately before extubation, immediately after extubation, and also 3, 5, and 10 minutes after extubation). The double burst time (DBT) was determined using neuromuscular monitoring, as time interval, between administration of reverse medication and DBT of 100%. Results: The HR was significantly lower, immediately after extubation and 3, 5, and 10 minutes after extubation, in both magnesium and remifentanil groups, compared to normal saline (P < 0.001). The MAP was also lower in magnesium and remifentanil groups, immediately after extubation and 3 minutes after extubation, in comparison to the normal saline group (P < 0.001). Mean (± SD) DBT 100% was significantly higher in magnesium group (30.2 ± 15.3) vs. remifenatnil (13.6 ± 6.8) and normal saline (13.5 ± 8.2) groups (P < 0.001). Conclusions: Both remifentanil and magnesium had favorable outcomes in preventing HR and MAP elevation after tracheal extubation. However, remifentanil was associated with more rapid regaining of consciousness and reversal of muscular relaxation. PMID:26478862

Right upper lobe atelectasis after tracheal extubation in a morbidly obese patient

PubMed Central

Uzman, Sinan; Toptaş, Mehmet; Yanaral, Tumay Uludag

2012-01-01

Summary Background: Acute lobar collapse caused by a reflex bronchoconstriction was previously reported to occur during the induction of anesthesia, however there are no reports on its occurrence during the emergence period. Case Report: A 56-year-old morbidly obese woman was scheduled for surgery due to a gastric ulcer perforation. Anesthesia was induced with thiopental 500 mg, fentanyl and rocuronium, and maintained with sevoflurane in a N2O/O2 mixture. The operative procedure and anesthesia were uneventful; however, the patient developed a sudden decrease in SaO2 and blurring of consciousness after extubation. She was re-intubated and ventilated with 100% O2. Arterial blood gas analysis at that time showed respiratory acidosis and hypoxemia. Further work-up revealed a bronchospasm-induced right upper lobe atelectasis, which occurred immediately after tracheal extubation. The patient was successfully treated using mechanical ventilation and bronchodilators. Conclusions: Bronchospasm may cause acute lobar atelectasis immediately after tracheal extubation. Morbid obesity and the use of 100% oxygen may facilitate atelectasis formation during emergence from anesthesia. PMID:23569513

Detecting failure of climate predictions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Runge, Michael C.; Stroeve, Julienne C.; Barrett, Andrew P.; McDonald-Madden, Eve

2016-01-01

The practical consequences of climate change challenge society to formulate responses that are more suited to achieving long-term objectives, even if those responses have to be made in the face of uncertainty1, 2. Such a decision-analytic focus uses the products of climate science as probabilistic predictions about the effects of management policies3. Here we present methods to detect when climate predictions are failing to capture the system dynamics. For a single model, we measure goodness of fit based on the empirical distribution function, and define failure when the distribution of observed values significantly diverges from the modelled distribution. For a set of models, the same statistic can be used to provide relative weights for the individual models, and we define failure when there is no linear weighting of the ensemble models that produces a satisfactory match to the observations. Early detection of failure of a set of predictions is important for improving model predictions and the decisions based on them. We show that these methods would have detected a range shift in northern pintail 20 years before it was actually discovered, and are increasingly giving more weight to those climate models that forecast a September ice-free Arctic by 2055.

Diaphragm Muscle Surface Electromyography in Patients Submitted to Liver Transplant and Eligible for Extubation.

PubMed

Duarte, R P; Sentanin, A C; da Silva, A M O; Tonella, R M; Duarte, G L; Ratti, L S R; Boin, I F S F

2017-05-01

Liver disease induces many organic and metabolic changes, leading to malnutrition and weight and muscular function loss. Surface electromyography is an easily applicable, noninvasive study, through which the magnitudes of the peaks on the charts depict voluntary muscle activity. To evaluate the diaphragmatic surface electromyography of postoperative liver transplantation subjects. Subjects were patients who underwent liver transplantation and extubation in the Clinical Hospital of State University of Campinas. Electromyography data were collected with support pressure of ≤10 cm H 2 O, Glasgow Coma Scale = 11, and minimum dosages of vasoactive drugs, and data were collected again 30 minutes after extubation. Signal collection was performed with sEMG System Brazil SAS1000V3 electromyograph and electrode stickers. Statistical analysis was performed using R software. The average time of surgery was 345.36 ± 125.62 minutes. Time from spontaneous mode until extubation was 417.14 ± 362.97 minutes. The RMS (root mean square) values of the right and left domes in spontaneous mode with minimal ventilation parameters were 26.68 ± 10.92 and 26.55 ± 10.53, respectively, and the RMS values after extubation were 31.93 ± 18.69 to 34.62 ± 13.55, for right and left domes. The last calculated pretransplant Model for End-stage Liver Disease score averaged 19.64 ± 8.41. There were significant differences between the RMS of the diaphragm domes under mechanical ventilation and after extubation, showing lower effectiveness of the diaphragm muscle against resistance, without the aid of positive pressure and the existing overload of the left dome. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting Failure Under Laboratory Conditions: Learning the Physics of Slow Frictional Slip and Dynamic Failure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rouet-Leduc, B.; Hulbert, C.; Riviere, J.; Lubbers, N.; Barros, K.; Marone, C.; Johnson, P. A.

2016-12-01

Forecasting failure is a primary goal in diverse domains that include earthquake physics, materials science, nondestructive evaluation of materials and other engineering applications. Due to the highly complex physics of material failure and limitations on gathering data in the failure nucleation zone, this goal has often appeared out of reach; however, recent advances in instrumentation sensitivity, instrument density and data analysis show promise toward forecasting failure times. Here, we show that we can predict frictional failure times of both slow and fast stick slip failure events in the laboratory. This advance is made possible by applying a machine learning approach known as Random Forests1(RF) to the continuous acoustic emission (AE) time series recorded by detectors located on the fault blocks. The RF is trained using a large number of statistical features derived from the AE time series signal. The model is then applied to data not previously analyzed. Remarkably, we find that the RF method predicts upcoming failure time far in advance of a stick slip event, based only on a short time window of data. Further, the algorithm accurately predicts the time of the beginning and end of the next slip event. The predicted time improves as failure is approached, as other data features add to prediction. Our results show robust predictions of slow and dynamic failure based on acoustic emissions from the fault zone throughout the laboratory seismic cycle. The predictions are based on previously unidentified tremor-like acoustic signals that occur during stress build up and the onset of macroscopic frictional weakening. We suggest that the tremor-like signals carry information about fault zone processes and allow precise predictions of failure at any time in the slow slip or stick slip cycle2. If the laboratory experiments represent Earth frictional conditions, it could well be that signals are being missed that contain highly useful predictive information. 1Breiman

Performance of immunological response in predicting virological failure.

PubMed

Ingole, Nayana; Mehta, Preeti; Pazare, Amar; Paranjpe, Supriya; Sarkate, Purva

2013-03-01

In HIV-infected individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART), the decision on when to switch from first-line to second-line therapy is dictated by treatment failure, and this can be measured in three ways: clinically, immunologically, and virologically. While viral load (VL) decreases and CD4 cell increases typically occur together after starting ART, discordant responses may be seen. Hence the current study was designed to determine the immunological and virological response to ART and to evaluate the utility of immunological response to predict virological failure. All treatment-naive HIV-positive individuals aged >18 years who were eligible for ART were enrolled and assessed at baseline, 6 months, and 12 months clinically and by CD4 cell count and viral load estimations. The patients were categorized as showing concordant favorable (CF), immunological only (IO), virological only (VO), and concordant unfavorable responses (CU). The efficiency of immunological failure to predict virological failure was analyzed across various levels of virological failure (VL>50, >500, and >5,000 copies/ml). At 6 months, 87(79.81%), 7(5.5%), 13 (11.92%), and 2 (1.83%) patients and at 12 months 61(69.3%), 9(10.2%), 16 (18.2%), and 2 (2.3%) patients had CF, IO, VO, and CU responses, respectively. Immunological failure criteria had a very low sensitivity (11.1-40%) and positive predictive value (8.3-25%) to predict virological failure. Immunological criteria do not accurately predict virological failure resulting in significant misclassification of therapeutic responses. There is an urgent need for inclusion of viral load testing in the initiation and monitoring of ART.

Methods, apparatus and system for notification of predictable memory failure

DOEpatents

Cher, Chen-Yong; Andrade Costa, Carlos H.; Park, Yoonho; Rosenburg, Bryan S.; Ryu, Kyung D.

2017-01-03

A method for providing notification of a predictable memory failure includes the steps of: obtaining information regarding at least one condition associated with a memory; calculating a memory failure probability as a function of the obtained information; calculating a failure probability threshold; and generating a signal when the memory failure probability exceeds the failure probability threshold, the signal being indicative of a predicted future memory failure.

Pediatric Critical Care Transport as a Conduit to Terminal Extubation at Home: A Case Series

PubMed Central

Noje, Corina; Bernier, Meghan L.; Costabile, Philomena M.; Klein, Bruce L.; Kudchadkar, Sapna R.

2016-01-01

Objective To present our single-center’s experience with three palliative critical care transports home from the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) for terminal extubation. Design, Setting, Patients All cases were identified from our institutional Pediatric Transport database. Patients in the case series were terminally ill children unable to separate from mechanical ventilation in the PICU, who were transported home between January 1, 2012 and December 31, 2014 for terminal extubation and end-of-life care according to their families’ wishes. Interventions, Measurements, Main Results The rate of palliative care transports home for terminal extubation during the study period was 2.6 per 100 deaths. The patients were 7 months, 6 years, and 18 years old and had complex chronic conditions. The transfer process was protocolized. The families were approached by the PICU staff during multidisciplinary goals-of-care meetings. Parental expectations were clarified and home hospice care was arranged pre-transfer. All transports were performed by our pediatric critical care transport team, and all terminal extubations were performed by physicians. All patients had unstable medical conditions and urgent needs for transport to comply with the families’ wishes for withdrawal of life-support and death at home. As such, all three cases presented similar logistical challenges, including establishing do-not-resuscitate status pre-transport, having limited time to organize the transport, and coordinating home palliative care services with available community resources. Conclusions Though a relatively infrequent practice in pediatric critical care, transport home for terminal extubation represents a feasible alternative for families seeking out-of-hospital end-of-life care for their critically ill technology-dependent children. Our single-center experience supports the need for development of formal programs for end-of-life critical care transports to include patient screening

Advantage of rubber over plastic endotracheal tubes for rapid extubation in a laser fire.

PubMed

Sosis, M B; Braverman, B

1996-04-01

The occurrence of airway fires during laser airway surgery necessitates the use of special techniques to improve patient safety. For example, it is recommended that the endotracheal tube cuff be inflated with saline. However, in the event of an endotracheal tube fire, the tube must be quickly removed. This study was designed to determine the time necessary for red rubber (RR) or polyvinylchloride (PVC) endotracheal tubes to be removed from a model airway after inflating the cuffs with saline. A model larynx and trachea was suspended vertically. It was intubated with either 7.0 RR or PVC endotracheal tubes. Six milliliters of saline was used to inflate the endotracheal tube cuffs. After inflation, a clamp was used to occlude the pilot tube on the RR endotracheal tubes. A 4-lb weight was then suspended from the endotracheal tube. The time to spontaneous extubation of the model trachea after unclamping the pilot tubes on 12 RR endotracheal tubes was determined. For the PVC endotracheal tubes, the times to spontaneous extubation using the 4-lb weight were determined in 12 endotracheal tubes after cutting the pilot tube and in 12 by maximum aspiration of the saline from the endotracheal tube cuff with a 10-ml syringe. A time of 0.94 +/- 0.10 sec (mean +/- SD) was required for spontaneous extubation of the RR endotracheal tubes after unclamping the pilot tube. For the PVC endotracheal tubes, extubation occurred 3.28 +/- 1.08 and 1.81 +/- 0.60 sec after cutting the pilot tube or deflating the cuff with a syringe, respectively. The mean times for each of the 3 groups were significantly different (p < 0.05) from each other as determined by the ANOVA. This study shows that if PVC endotracheal tubes are used, deflation of the saline-filled cuff by aspiration with a 10-ml syringe is faster than cutting the pilot tube. Unclamping the pilot tube on the RR endotracheal tubes resulted in the fastest time to endotracheal extubation.

[Use of positive pressure in pre and intraoperative of bariatric surgery and its effect on the time of extubation].

PubMed

Baltieri, Letícia; Santos, Laisa Antonela Dos; Rasera-Junior, Irineu; Montebelo, Maria Imaculada de Lima; Pazzianotto-Forti, Eli Maria

2015-01-01

to investigate the influence of intraoperative and preoperative airway positive pressure in the time of extubation in patients undergoing bariatric surgery. Randomized clinical trial, in which 40 individuals with a body mass index between 40 and 55kg/m(2), age between 25 and 55 years, nonsmokers, underwent bariatric surgery type Roux-en-Y gastric bypass by laparotomy and with normal preoperative pulmonary function were randomized into the following groups: G-pre (n = 10): individuals who received treatment with noninvasive positive pressure before surgery for one hour, G-intra (n = 10): individuals who received positive end-expiratory pressure of 10cm H2O throughout the surgical procedure and G-control (n = 20): not received any pre or intraoperative intervention. Following were recorded: time between induction of anesthesia and extubation, between the end of anesthesia and extubation, duration of mechanical ventilation, and time between extubation and discharge from the Post-Anesthetic Recovery. there was no statistical difference between groups. However, when applied to the Cohen coefficient, the use of positive end-expiratory pressure of 10cm H2O during surgery showed a large effect on the time between the end of anesthesia and extubation. About this same time, the treatment performed preoperatively showed moderate effect. The use of positive end-expiratory pressure of 10cm H2O in the intraoperative and positive pressure preoperatively, influenced the time of extubation of patients undergoing bariatric surgery. Copyright © 2014 Sociedade Brasileira de Anestesiologia. Publicado por Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Predicting Failure Progression and Failure Loads in Composite Open-Hole Tension Coupons

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arunkumar, Satyanarayana; Przekop, Adam

2010-01-01

Failure types and failure loads in carbon-epoxy [45n/90n/-45n/0n]ms laminate coupons with central circular holes subjected to tensile load are simulated using progressive failure analysis (PFA) methodology. The progressive failure methodology is implemented using VUMAT subroutine within the ABAQUS(TradeMark)/Explicit nonlinear finite element code. The degradation model adopted in the present PFA methodology uses an instantaneous complete stress reduction (COSTR) approach to simulate damage at a material point when failure occurs. In-plane modeling parameters such as element size and shape are held constant in the finite element models, irrespective of laminate thickness and hole size, to predict failure loads and failure progression. Comparison to published test data indicates that this methodology accurately simulates brittle, pull-out and delamination failure types. The sensitivity of the failure progression and the failure load to analytical loading rates and solvers precision is demonstrated.

Prediction of mode of death in heart failure: the Seattle Heart Failure Model.

PubMed

Mozaffarian, Dariush; Anker, Stefan D; Anand, Inder; Linker, David T; Sullivan, Mark D; Cleland, John G F; Carson, Peter E; Maggioni, Aldo P; Mann, Douglas L; Pitt, Bertram; Poole-Wilson, Philip A; Levy, Wayne C

2007-07-24

Prognosis and mode of death in heart failure patients are highly variable in that some patients die suddenly (often from ventricular arrhythmia) and others die of progressive failure of cardiac function (pump failure). Prediction of mode of death may facilitate decisions about specific medications or devices. We used the Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM), a validated prediction model for total mortality in heart failure, to assess the mode of death in 10,538 ambulatory patients with New York Heart Association class II to IV heart failure and predominantly systolic dysfunction enrolled in 6 randomized trials or registries. During 16,735 person-years of follow-up, 2014 deaths occurred, which included 1014 sudden deaths and 684 pump-failure deaths. Compared with a SHFM score of 0, patients with a score of 1 had a 50% higher risk of sudden death, patients with a score of 2 had a nearly 3-fold higher risk, and patients with a score of 3 or 4 had a nearly 7-fold higher risk (P<0.001 for all comparisons; 1-year area under the receiver operating curve, 0.68). Stratification of risk of pump-failure death was even more pronounced, with a 4-fold higher risk with a score of 1, a 15-fold higher risk with a score of 2, a 38-fold higher risk with a score of 3, and an 88-fold higher risk with a score of 4 (P<0.001 for all comparisons; 1-year area under the receiver operating curve, 0.85). The proportion of deaths caused by sudden death versus pump-failure death decreased from a ratio of 7:1 with a SHFM score of 0 to a ratio of 1:2 with a SHFM score of 4 (P trend <0.001). The SHFM score provides information about the likely mode of death among ambulatory heart failure patients. Investigation is warranted to determine whether such information might predict responses to or cost-effectiveness of specific medications or devices in heart failure patients.

[Prediction of mortality in patients with acute hepatic failure].

PubMed

Eremeeva, L F; Berdnikov, A P; Musaeva, T S; Zabolotskikh, I B

2013-01-01

The article deals with a study of 243 patients (from 18 to 65 years old) with acute hepatic failure. Purpose of the study was to evaluate the predictive capability of severity scales APACHE III, SOFA, MODS, Child-Pugh and to identify mortality predictors in patients with acute hepatic failure. Results; The best predictive ability in patients with acute hepatic failure and multiple organ failure had APACHE III and SOFA scales. The strongest mortality predictors were: serum creatinine > 132 mmol/L, fibrinogen < 1.4 g/L, Na < 129 mmol/L.

Product component genealogy modeling and field-failure prediction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

King, Caleb; Hong, Yili; Meeker, William Q.

Many industrial products consist of multiple components that are necessary for system operation. There is an abundance of literature on modeling the lifetime of such components through competing risks models. During the life-cycle of a product, it is common for there to be incremental design changes to improve reliability, to reduce costs, or due to changes in availability of certain part numbers. These changes can affect product reliability but are often ignored in system lifetime modeling. By incorporating this information about changes in part numbers over time (information that is readily available in most production databases), better accuracy can bemore » achieved in predicting time to failure, thus yielding more accurate field-failure predictions. This paper presents methods for estimating parameters and predictions for this generational model and a comparison with existing methods through the use of simulation. Our results indicate that the generational model has important practical advantages and outperforms the existing methods in predicting field failures.« less

Product component genealogy modeling and field-failure prediction

DOE PAGES

King, Caleb; Hong, Yili; Meeker, William Q.

2016-04-13

Many industrial products consist of multiple components that are necessary for system operation. There is an abundance of literature on modeling the lifetime of such components through competing risks models. During the life-cycle of a product, it is common for there to be incremental design changes to improve reliability, to reduce costs, or due to changes in availability of certain part numbers. These changes can affect product reliability but are often ignored in system lifetime modeling. By incorporating this information about changes in part numbers over time (information that is readily available in most production databases), better accuracy can bemore » achieved in predicting time to failure, thus yielding more accurate field-failure predictions. This paper presents methods for estimating parameters and predictions for this generational model and a comparison with existing methods through the use of simulation. Our results indicate that the generational model has important practical advantages and outperforms the existing methods in predicting field failures.« less

Failure mode analysis to predict product reliability.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zemanick, P. P.

1972-01-01

The failure mode analysis (FMA) is described as a design tool to predict and improve product reliability. The objectives of the failure mode analysis are presented as they influence component design, configuration selection, the product test program, the quality assurance plan, and engineering analysis priorities. The detailed mechanics of performing a failure mode analysis are discussed, including one suggested format. Some practical difficulties of implementation are indicated, drawn from experience with preparing FMAs on the nuclear rocket engine program.

Computational Methods for Failure Analysis and Life Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noor, Ahmed K. (Compiler); Harris, Charles E. (Compiler); Housner, Jerrold M. (Compiler); Hopkins, Dale A. (Compiler)

1993-01-01

This conference publication contains the presentations and discussions from the joint UVA/NASA Workshop on Computational Methods for Failure Analysis and Life Prediction held at NASA Langley Research Center 14-15 Oct. 1992. The presentations focused on damage failure and life predictions of polymer-matrix composite structures. They covered some of the research activities at NASA Langley, NASA Lewis, Southwest Research Institute, industry, and universities. Both airframes and propulsion systems were considered.

Factors Predicting Meniscal Allograft Transplantation Failure

PubMed Central

Parkinson, Ben; Smith, Nicholas; Asplin, Laura; Thompson, Peter; Spalding, Tim

2016-01-01

Background: Meniscal allograft transplantation (MAT) is performed to improve symptoms and function in patients with a meniscal-deficient compartment of the knee. Numerous studies have shown a consistent improvement in patient-reported outcomes, but high failure rates have been reported by some studies. The typical patients undergoing MAT often have multiple other pathologies that require treatment at the time of surgery. The factors that predict failure of a meniscal allograft within this complex patient group are not clearly defined. Purpose: To determine predictors of MAT failure in a large series to refine the indications for surgery and better inform future patients. Study Design: Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: All patients undergoing MAT at a single institution between May 2005 and May 2014 with a minimum of 1-year follow-up were prospectively evaluated and included in this study. Failure was defined as removal of the allograft, revision transplantation, or conversion to a joint replacement. Patients were grouped according to the articular cartilage status at the time of the index surgery: group 1, intact or partial-thickness chondral loss; group 2, full-thickness chondral loss 1 condyle; and group 3, full-thickness chondral loss both condyles. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to determine significant predictors of failure, independently of other factors. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were produced for overall survival and significant predictors of failure in the Cox proportional hazards model. Results: There were 125 consecutive MATs performed, with 1 patient lost to follow-up. The median follow-up was 3 years (range, 1-10 years). The 5-year graft survival for the entire cohort was 82% (group 1, 97%; group 2, 82%; group 3, 62%). The probability of failure in group 1 was 85% lower (95% CI, 13%-97%) than in group 3 at any time. The probability of failure with lateral allografts was 76% lower (95% CI, 16%-89%) than medial allografts at

Increased mean time from end of surgery to operating room exit in a historical cohort of cases with prolonged time to extubation.

PubMed

Dexter, Franklin; Epstein, Richard H

2013-12-01

Prolonged time to extubation has been defined as the occurrence of a ≥ 15-minute interval from the end of surgery to removal of the tracheal tube. We quantified the increases in the mean times from end of surgery to exit from the OR associated with prolonged extubations and tested whether the increases were economically important (≥ 5 minutes). Anesthesia information management system data from 1 tertiary hospital were collected from November 2005 through December 2012 (i.e., sample sizes were N = 22 sequential quarters). Cases were excluded in which the patient's trachea was not intubated or extubated while physically in the operating room (OR). For each combination of stratification variable (below) and quarter, the mean time from end of surgery to OR exit was calculated for the extubations that were not prolonged and for those that were prolonged. Results are reported as mean ± SEM, with "at least" denoting the lower 95% confidence interval. The mean times from end of surgery to OR exit were at least 12.6 minutes longer for prolonged extubations when calculated with stratification by duration of surgery and prone or other positioning (13.0 ± 0.1 minutes), P < 0.0001 compared to 5 minutes (i.e., times were substantively long economically). The mean times were at least 11.7 minutes longer when calculated stratified by anesthesia procedure code (12.4 ± 0.4, P < 0.0001) and at least 11.3 minutes longer when calculated stratified by surgeon (12.4 ± 0.6, P < 0.0001). We recommend that anesthesia providers document the times of extubations and monitor the incidence of prolonged extubations as an economic measure. This would be especially important for providers at facilities with many ORs that have at least 8 hours of cases and turnovers.

Bedside screen for oral cavity structure, salivary flow, and vocal production over the 14days following endotracheal extubation.

PubMed

Chen, Cheryl Chia-Hui; Wu, Kuo-Hsiang; Ku, Shih-Chi; Chan, Ding-Cheng; Lee, Jang-Jaer; Wang, Tyng-Guey; Hsiao, Tzu-Yu

2018-06-01

To describe the sequelae of oral endotracheal intubation by evaluating prevalence rates of structural injury, hyposalivation, and impaired vocal production over 14days following extubation. Consecutive adults (≥20years, N=114) with prolonged (≥48h) endotracheal intubation were enrolled from medical intensive care units at a university hospital. Participants were assessed by trained nurses at 2, 7, and 14days after extubation, using a standardized bedside screening protocol. Within 48-hour postextubation, structural injuries were common, with 51% having restricted mouth opening. Unstimulated salivary flow was reduced in 43%. For vocal production, 51% had inadequate breathing support for phonation, dysphonia was common (94% had hoarseness and 36% showed reduced efficiency of vocal fold closure), and >40% had impaired articulatory precision. By 14days postextubation, recovery was noted in most conditions, but reduced efficiency of vocal fold closure persisted. Restricted mouth opening (39%) and reduced salivary flow (34%) remained highly prevalent. After extubation, restricted mouth opening, reduced salivary flow, and dysphonia were common and prolonged in recovery. Reduced efficiency of vocal cord closure persisted at 14days postextubation. The extent and duration of these sequelae remind clinicians to screen for them up to 2weeks after extubation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Is it possible to predict office hysteroscopy failure?

PubMed

Cobellis, Luigi; Castaldi, Maria Antonietta; Giordano, Valentino; De Franciscis, Pasquale; Signoriello, Giuseppe; Colacurci, Nicola

2014-10-01

The purpose of this study was to develop a clinical tool, the HFI (Hysteroscopy Failure Index), which gives criteria to predict hysteroscopic examination failure. This was a retrospective diagnostic test study, aimed to validate the HFI, set at the Department of Gynaecology, Obstetric and Reproductive Science of the Second University of Naples, Italy. The HFI was applied to our database of 995 consecutive women, who underwent office based to assess abnormal uterine bleeding (AUB), infertility, cervical polyps, and abnormal sonographic patterns (postmenopausal endometrial thickness of more than 5mm, endometrial hyperechogenic spots, irregular endometrial line, suspect of uterine septa). Demographic characteristics, previous surgery, recurrent infections, sonographic data, Estro-Progestins, IUD and menopausal status were collected. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to assess the ability of the model to identify patients who were correctly identified (true positives) divided by the total number of failed hysteroscopies (true positives+false negatives). Positive and Negative Likelihood Ratios with 95%CI were calculated. The HFI score is able to predict office hysteroscopy failure in 76% of cases. Moreover, the Positive likelihood ratio was 11.37 (95% CI: 8.49-15.21), and the Negative likelihood ratio was 0.33 (95% CI: 0.27-0.41). Hysteroscopy failure index was able to retrospectively predict office hysteroscopy failure. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Failure prediction using machine learning and time series in optical network.

PubMed

Wang, Zhilong; Zhang, Min; Wang, Danshi; Song, Chuang; Liu, Min; Li, Jin; Lou, Liqi; Liu, Zhuo

2017-08-07

In this paper, we propose a performance monitoring and failure prediction method in optical networks based on machine learning. The primary algorithms of this method are the support vector machine (SVM) and double exponential smoothing (DES). With a focus on risk-aware models in optical networks, the proposed protection plan primarily investigates how to predict the risk of an equipment failure. To the best of our knowledge, this important problem has not yet been fully considered. Experimental results showed that the average prediction accuracy of our method was 95% when predicting the optical equipment failure state. This finding means that our method can forecast an equipment failure risk with high accuracy. Therefore, our proposed DES-SVM method can effectively improve traditional risk-aware models to protect services from possible failures and enhance the optical network stability.

Predicting duration of mechanical ventilation in patients with carbon monoxide poisoning: a retrospective study.

PubMed

Shen, Chih-Hao; Peng, Chung-Kan; Chou, Yu-Ching; Pan, Ke-Ting; Chang, Shun-Cheng; Chang, Shan-Yueh; Huang, Kun-Lun

2015-02-01

Patients with severe carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning may develop acute respiratory failure, which needs endotracheal intubation and mechanical ventilation (MV). The objective of this study was to identify the predictors for duration of MV in patients with severe CO poisoning and acute respiratory failure. This is a retrospective observational study of 796 consecutive patients diagnosed with acute CO poisoning that presented to the emergency department. Patients who received MV were divided into 2 groups: the early extubation (EE) consisting of patients who were on MV for less than 72 hours and the nonearly extubation (NEE) consisting of patients who were on MV for more than 72 hours. Demographic and clinical data of the two groups were extracted for analysis. The intubation rate of all CO-poisoned patients was 23.4%. A total of 168 patients were enrolled in this study. The main source of CO exposure was intentional CO poisoning by charcoal burning (137 patients). Positive toxicology screening result was found in 104 patients (61.9%). The EE group had 105 patients (62.5%). On arriving at the emergency department, high incidence of hypotension; high white blood cell count; and elevation of blood urea nitrogen, creatinine, aspartate aminotransferase, alanine aminotransferase, creatine kinase, and troponin-I levels were statistically significant in the NEE group (P < .05). Positive toxicology screening result was statistically significant in the EE group (P < .05). In a multivariate analysis, elevation of troponin-I level was an independent factor for NEE (odds ratio, 1.305; 95% confidence interval, 1.024-1.663; P = .032). Positive toxicology screening result was an independent factor for EE (odds ratio, 0.222; 95% confidence interval, 0.101-0.489; P = .001). A positive toxin screen predicts extubation within the first 72 hours for patients with severe CO poisoning and acute respiratory failure. On the other hand, elevation of initial troponin-I level is a predictor for

Review on failure prediction techniques of composite single lap joint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ab Ghani, A.F., E-mail: ahmadfuad@utem.edu.my; Rivai, Ahmad, E-mail: ahmadrivai@utem.edu.my

2016-03-29

Adhesive bonding is the most appropriate joining method in construction of composite structures. The use of reliable design and prediction technique will produce better performance of bonded joints. Several papers from recent papers and journals have been reviewed and synthesized to understand the current state of the art in this area. It is done by studying the most relevant analytical solutions for composite adherends with start of reviewing the most fundamental ones involving beam/plate theory. It is then extended to review single lap joint non linearity and failure prediction and finally on the failure prediction on composite single lap joint.more » The review also encompasses the finite element modelling part as tool to predict the elastic response of composite single lap joint and failure prediction numerically.« less

An accelerating precursor to predict "time-to-failure" in creep and volcanic eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Shengwang; Yang, Hang; Elsworth, Derek

2017-09-01

Real-time prediction by monitoring of the evolution of response variables is a central goal in predicting rock failure. A linear relation Ω˙Ω¨-1 = C(tf - t) has been developed to describe the time to failure, where Ω represents a response quantity, C is a constant and tf represents the failure time. Observations from laboratory creep failure experiments and precursors to volcanic eruptions are used to test the validity of the approach. Both cumulative and simple moving window techniques are developed to perform predictions and to illustrate the effects of data selection on the results. Laboratory creep failure experiments on granites show that the linear relation works well during the final approach to failure. For blind prediction, the simple moving window technique is preferred because it always uses the most recent data and excludes effects of early data deviating significantly from the predicted trend. When the predicted results show only small fluctuations, failure is imminent.

Predicting Failure of Glyburide Therapy in Gestational Diabetes

PubMed Central

Harper, Lorie M.; Glover, Angelica V.; Biggio, Joseph R.; Tita, Alan

2016-01-01

Objective We sought to develop a prediction model to identify women with gestational diabetes (GDM) who require insulin to achieve glycemic control. Study Design Retrospective cohort of all singletons with GDM treated with glyburide 2007–2013. Glyburide failure was defined as reaching glyburide 20 mg/day and receiving insulin. Glyburide success was defined as any glyburide dose without insulin and >70% of visits with glycemic control. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to create a prediction model. Results Of 360 women, 63 (17.5%) qualified as glyburide failure and 157 (43.6%) glyburide success. The final prediction model for glyburide failure included prior GDM, GDM diagnosis ≤26 weeks, 1-hour GCT ≥228 mg/dL, 3-hour GTT 1-hour value ≥221 mg/dL, ≥7 post-prandial blood sugars >120 mg/dL in the week glyburide started, and ≥1 blood sugar >200 mg/dL. The model accurately classified 81% of subjects. Conclusions Women with GDM who will require insulin can be identified at initiation of pharmacologic therapy. PMID:26796130

Extubation success in premature infants with respiratory distress syndrome treated with bi-level nasal continuous positive airway pressure versus nasal intermittent positive pressure ventilation.

PubMed

Thomas, Patricia E; LeFlore, Judy

2013-01-01

Infants born prematurely with respiratory distress syndrome are at high risk for complications from mechanical ventilation. Strategies are needed to minimize their days on the ventilator. The purpose of this study was to compare extubation success rates in infants treated with 2 different types of continuous positive airway pressure devices. A retrospective cohort study design was used. Data were retrieved from electronic medical records for patients in a large, metropolitan, level III neonatal intensive care unit. A sample of 194 premature infants with respiratory distress syndrome was selected, 124 of whom were treated with nasal intermittent positive pressure ventilation and 70 with bi-level variable flow nasal continuous positive airway pressure (bi-level nasal continuous positive airway pressure). Infants in both groups had high extubation success rates (79% of nasal intermittent positive pressure ventilation group and 77% of bi-level nasal continuous positive airway pressure group). Although infants in the bi-level nasal continuous positive airway pressure group were extubated sooner, there was no difference in duration of oxygen therapy between the 2 groups. Promoting early extubation and extubation success is a vital strategy to reduce complications of mechanical ventilation that adversely affect premature infants with respiratory distress syndrome.

Peridynamics for failure and residual strength prediction of fiber-reinforced composites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colavito, Kyle

Peridynamics is a reformulation of classical continuum mechanics that utilizes integral equations in place of partial differential equations to remove the difficulty in handling discontinuities, such as cracks or interfaces, within a body. Damage is included within the constitutive model; initiation and propagation can occur without resorting to special crack growth criteria necessary in other commonly utilized approaches. Predicting damage and residual strengths of composite materials involves capturing complex, distinct and progressive failure modes. The peridynamic laminate theory correctly predicts the load redistribution in general laminate layups in the presence of complex failure modes through the use of multiple interaction types. This study presents two approaches to obtain the critical peridynamic failure parameters necessary to capture the residual strength of a composite structure. The validity of both approaches is first demonstrated by considering the residual strength of isotropic materials. The peridynamic theory is used to predict the crack growth and final failure load in both a diagonally loaded square plate with a center crack, as well as a four-point shear specimen subjected to asymmetric loading. This study also establishes the validity of each approach by considering composite laminate specimens in which each failure mode is isolated. Finally, the failure loads and final failure modes are predicted in a laminate with various hole diameters subjected to tensile and compressive loads.

Predicting failure of glyburide therapy in gestational diabetes.

PubMed

Harper, L M; Glover, A V; Biggio, J R; Tita, A

2016-05-01

We sought to develop a prediction model to identify women with gestational diabetes (GDM) who require insulin to achieve glycemic control. Retrospective cohort of all singletons with GDM treated with glyburide from 2007 to 2013. Glyburide failure was defined as reaching glyburide 20 mg day(-1) and receiving insulin. Glyburide success was defined as any glyburide dose without insulin and >70% of visits with glycemic control. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to create a prediction model. Of the 360 women, 63 (17.5%) qualified as glyburide failure and 157 (43.6%) as glyburide success. The final prediction model for glyburide failure included prior GDM, GDM diagnosis ⩽26 weeks, 1-h glucose challenge test ⩾228 mg dl(-1), 3-h glucose tolerance test 1-h value ⩾221 mg dl(-1), ⩾7 postprandial blood sugars >120 mg dl(-1) in the week glyburide started and ⩾1 blood sugar >200 mg dl(-1). The model accurately classified 81% of subjects. Women with GDM who will require insulin can be identified at the initiation of pharmacological therapy.

Does working memory capacity predict cross-modally induced failures of awareness?

PubMed

Kreitz, Carina; Furley, Philip; Simons, Daniel J; Memmert, Daniel

2016-01-01

People often fail to notice unexpected stimuli when they are focusing attention on another task. Most studies of this phenomenon address visual failures induced by visual attention tasks (inattentional blindness). Yet, such failures also occur within audition (inattentional deafness), and people can even miss unexpected events in one sensory modality when focusing attention on tasks in another modality. Such cross-modal failures are revealing because they suggest the existence of a common, central resource limitation. And, such central limits might be predicted from individual differences in cognitive capacity. We replicated earlier evidence, establishing substantial rates of inattentional deafness during a visual task and inattentional blindness during an auditory task. However, neither individual working memory capacity nor the ability to perform the primary task predicted noticing in either modality. Thus, individual differences in cognitive capacity did not predict failures of awareness even though the failures presumably resulted from central resource limitations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Difficulty in tracheal extubation followed by tracheal collapse after balloon dilatation for tracheal stenosis therapy: A case report.

PubMed

Li, Nana; Zhu, Linjia; Sun, Jie; Pan, Yinbing; Gao, Mei

2018-06-01

Tracheobronchomalacia (TBM) refers to the weakening trachea or the trachea loss of structural integrity of airway cartilaginous structures. It causes tracheal stenosis, resulting in significantly high rates of mortality. Bronchoplasty by high-pressure balloon dilation under general anesthesia is a simple but effective and safe method to treat tracheobronchial stenosis. However, recurrent postoperative dyspnea after extubation due to tracheal collapse is still a challenge for anesthetists. A 52-year-old man weighing 72 kg was scheduled for balloon dilatation surgery under general anesthesia because of breathing difficulties caused by tracheal stenosis. His previous medical history included rheumatoid arthritis, obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS), chronic bronchitis and a history of tracheal intubation. Laryngeal computerized tomography confirmed the stenosis at the level of thyroid gland. The tracheal collapse after balloon dilatation for tracheal stenosis therapy. Postoperatively, the patient presented with more serious and repetitive symptoms of dyspnea after extubation when compared to that before treatment. So, we had to re-insert the laryngeal mask airway (LMA), and exclude some anesthesia-associated factors, such as laryngospasm, bronchospasm and so on. After a series of treatments, we ultimately found the cause in time (the airway collapsed), and succeeded in tracheal extubation after the stent was inserted. The patient recovered well and reported high satisfaction with anesthesia management. In such an emergency even, the anesthesiologist should take valuable treatments to ensure the patient's effective ventilation. If the anesthesia-related factors can be eliminated, tracheomalacia or airway collapse should be considered whenever dyspnea occurs in the patients who unexpectedly fail to be extubated.

Model-Biased, Data-Driven Adaptive Failure Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leen, Todd K.

2004-01-01

This final report, which contains a research summary and a viewgraph presentation, addresses clustering and data simulation techniques for failure prediction. The researchers applied their techniques to both helicopter gearbox anomaly detection and segmentation of Earth Observing System (EOS) satellite imagery.

Association Rule-based Predictive Model for Machine Failure in Industrial Internet of Things

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, Jung-Hyok; Lee, Sol-Bee; Park, Jaehoon; Kim, Eui-Jik

2017-09-01

This paper proposes an association rule-based predictive model for machine failure in industrial Internet of things (IIoT), which can accurately predict the machine failure in real manufacturing environment by investigating the relationship between the cause and type of machine failure. To develop the predictive model, we consider three major steps: 1) binarization, 2) rule creation, 3) visualization. The binarization step translates item values in a dataset into one or zero, then the rule creation step creates association rules as IF-THEN structures using the Lattice model and Apriori algorithm. Finally, the created rules are visualized in various ways for users’ understanding. An experimental implementation was conducted using R Studio version 3.3.2. The results show that the proposed predictive model realistically predicts machine failure based on association rules.

Quantifying effectiveness of failure prediction and response in HPC systems : methodology and example.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mayo, Jackson R.; Chen, Frank Xiaoxiao; Pebay, Philippe Pierre

2010-06-01

Effective failure prediction and mitigation strategies in high-performance computing systems could provide huge gains in resilience of tightly coupled large-scale scientific codes. These gains would come from prediction-directed process migration and resource servicing, intelligent resource allocation, and checkpointing driven by failure predictors rather than at regular intervals based on nominal mean time to failure. Given probabilistic associations of outlier behavior in hardware-related metrics with eventual failure in hardware, system software, and/or applications, this paper explores approaches for quantifying the effects of prediction and mitigation strategies and demonstrates these using actual production system data. We describe context-relevant methodologies for determining themore » accuracy and cost-benefit of predictors. While many research studies have quantified the expected impact of growing system size, and the associated shortened mean time to failure (MTTF), on application performance in large-scale high-performance computing (HPC) platforms, there has been little if any work to quantify the possible gains from predicting system resource failures with significant but imperfect accuracy. This possibly stems from HPC system complexity and the fact that, to date, no one has established any good predictors of failure in these systems. Our work in the OVIS project aims to discover these predictors via a variety of data collection techniques and statistical analysis methods that yield probabilistic predictions. The question then is, 'How good or useful are these predictions?' We investigate methods for answering this question in a general setting, and illustrate them using a specific failure predictor discovered on a production system at Sandia.« less

The use of a weaning and extubation protocol to facilitate effective weaning and extubation from mechanical ventilation in patients suffering from traumatic injuries: a non-randomized experimental trial comparing a prospective to retrospective cohort.

PubMed

Plani, Natascha; Becker, Piet; van Aswegen, Helena

2013-04-01

Many patients who have suffered traumatic injuries require mechanical ventilation (MV). Weaning is the transition from ventilatory support to spontaneous breathing. The purpose of this study was to determine whether the use of a nurse and a physiotherapist-driven protocol to wean and extubate patients from MV resulted in decreased MV days and intensive care unit (ICU) length of stay (LOS). A prospective cohort of 28 patients (Phase I), weaned according to the protocol developed for the Union Hospital Trauma Unit, was matched retrospectively with a historical cohort of 28 patients (Phase II), weaned according to physician preference. Pairs in the two groups were matched for gender, age, type, and severity of injury. For mean MV days, the groups did not differ statistically significantly (p 0.3; 14.4 days vs. 16.3 days), although the reduction in MV is clinically significant in view of the complications of additional MV days. The difference of 0.2 days for ICU LOS was not statistically significant (p = 0.9; 20.8 days vs. 21.0 days) demonstrating that the reduction in MV days may not result in the reduction of ICU LOS. The rate of re-intubation was similar between the groups (Phase I = 3/28 vs. Phase II = 4/24). The use of a weaning and extubation protocol led by nursing staff and physiotherapists resulted in a clinically significant reduction in MV time, reducing risk of ventilator-associated complications. The role of physiotherapists and nursing staff in weaning and extubation from MV could be greatly expanded in South African ICUs.

[Model for unplanned self extubation of ICU patients using system dynamics approach].

PubMed

Song, Yu Gil; Yun, Eun Kyoung

2015-04-01

In this study a system dynamics methodology was used to identify correlation and nonlinear feedback structure among factors affecting unplanned extubation (UE) of ICU patients and to construct and verify a simulation model. Factors affecting UE were identified through a theoretical background established by reviewing literature and preceding studies and referencing various statistical data. Related variables were decided through verification of content validity by an expert group. A causal loop diagram (CLD) was made based on the variables. Stock & Flow modeling using Vensim PLE Plus Version 6.0 b was performed to establish a model for UE. Based on the literature review and expert verification, 18 variables associated with UE were identified and CLD was prepared. From the prepared CLD, a model was developed by converting to the Stock & Flow Diagram. Results of the simulation showed that patient stress, patient in an agitated state, restraint application, patient movability, and individual intensive nursing were variables giving the greatest effect to UE probability. To verify agreement of the UE model with real situations, simulation with 5 cases was performed. Equation check and sensitivity analysis on TIME STEP were executed to validate model integrity. Results show that identification of a proper model enables prediction of UE probability. This prediction allows for adjustment of related factors, and provides basic data do develop nursing interventions to decrease UE.

Accurate Prediction of Motor Failures by Application of Multi CBM Tools: A Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dutta, Rana; Singh, Veerendra Pratap; Dwivedi, Jai Prakash

2018-02-01

Motor failures are very difficult to predict accurately with a single condition-monitoring tool as both electrical and the mechanical systems are closely related. Electrical problem, like phase unbalance, stator winding insulation failures can, at times, lead to vibration problem and at the same time mechanical failures like bearing failure, leads to rotor eccentricity. In this case study of a 550 kW blower motor it has been shown that a rotor bar crack was detected by current signature analysis and vibration monitoring confirmed the same. In later months in a similar motor vibration monitoring predicted bearing failure and current signature analysis confirmed the same. In both the cases, after dismantling the motor, the predictions were found to be accurate. In this paper we will be discussing the accurate predictions of motor failures through use of multi condition monitoring tools with two case studies.

Anticipating the future: Automatic prediction failures in schizophrenia

PubMed Central

Ford, Judith M.; Mathalon, Daniel H.

2011-01-01

People with schizophrenia often misperceive sensations and misinterpret experiences, perhaps contributing to psychotic symptoms. These misperceptions and misinterpretations might result from an inability to make valid predictions about expected sensations and experiences. Healthy normal people take advantage of neural mechanisms that allow them to make predictions unconsciously, facilitating processing of expected sensations and distinguishing the expected from the unexpected. In this paper, we focus on two types of automatic, unconscious mechanisms that allow us to predict our perceptions. The first involves predictions made via innate mechanisms basic to all species in the animal kingdom—the efference copy and corollary discharge mechanisms. They accompany our voluntary movements and allow us to suppress sensations resulting from our actions. We study this during talking, and show that auditory cortical response to the speech sounds during talking is reduced compared to when they are played back. This suppression is reduced in schizophrenia, suggesting a failure to predict the sensations resulting from talking. The second mechanism involves implicitly learning what to expect from the current context of events. We study this by observing the brain's response to an unexpected repetition of an event, when a change would have been predicted. That patients have a reduced response suggests they failed to predict that it was time for a change. Both types of predictions should happen automatically and effortlessly, allowing for economic processing of expected events and orientation to unexpected ones. These prediction failures characterize the diagnosis of schizophrenia rather than reflecting specific symptoms. PMID:21959054

Prediction of failure pressure and leak rate of stress corrosion.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Majumdar, S.; Kasza, K.; Park, J. Y.

2002-06-24

An ''equivalent rectangular crack'' approach was employed to predict rupture pressures and leak rates through laboratory generated stress corrosion cracks and steam generator tubes removed from the McGuire Nuclear Station. Specimen flaws were sized by post-test fractography in addition to a pre-test advanced eddy current technique. The predicted and observed test data on rupture and leak rate are compared. In general, the test failure pressures and leak rates are closer to those predicted on the basis of fractography than on nondestructive evaluation (NDE). However, the predictions based on NDE results are encouraging, particularly because they have the potential to determinemore » a more detailed geometry of ligamented cracks, from which failure pressure and leak rate can be more accurately predicted. One test specimen displayed a time-dependent increase of leak rate under constant pressure.« less

Narrowing the scope of failure prediction using targeted fault load injection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordan, Paul L.; Peterson, Gilbert L.; Lin, Alan C.; Mendenhall, Michael J.; Sellers, Andrew J.

2018-05-01

As society becomes more dependent upon computer systems to perform increasingly critical tasks, ensuring that those systems do not fail becomes increasingly important. Many organizations depend heavily on desktop computers for day-to-day operations. Unfortunately, the software that runs on these computers is written by humans and, as such, is still subject to human error and consequent failure. A natural solution is to use statistical machine learning to predict failure. However, since failure is still a relatively rare event, obtaining labelled training data to train these models is not a trivial task. This work presents new simulated fault-inducing loads that extend the focus of traditional fault injection techniques to predict failure in the Microsoft enterprise authentication service and Apache web server. These new fault loads were successful in creating failure conditions that were identifiable using statistical learning methods, with fewer irrelevant faults being created.

Prediction of hospital failure: a post-PPS analysis.

PubMed

Gardiner, L R; Oswald, S L; Jahera, J S

1996-01-01

This study investigates the ability of discriminant analysis to provide accurate predictions of hospital failure. Using data from the period following the introduction of the Prospective Payment System, we developed discriminant functions for each of two hospital ownership categories: not-for-profit and proprietary. The resulting discriminant models contain six and seven variables, respectively. For each ownership category, the variables represent four major aspects of financial health (liquidity, leverage, profitability, and efficiency) plus county marketshare and length of stay. The proportion of closed hospitals misclassified as open one year before closure does not exceed 0.05 for either ownership type. Our results show that discriminant functions based on a small set of financial and nonfinancial variables provide the capability to predict hospital failure reliably for both not-for-profit and proprietary hospitals.

Real-time forecasting and predictability of catastrophic failure events: from rock failure to volcanoes and earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Main, I. G.; Bell, A. F.; Naylor, M.; Atkinson, M.; Filguera, R.; Meredith, P. G.; Brantut, N.

2012-12-01

Accurate prediction of catastrophic brittle failure in rocks and in the Earth presents a significant challenge on theoretical and practical grounds. The governing equations are not known precisely, but are known to produce highly non-linear behavior similar to those of near-critical dynamical systems, with a large and irreducible stochastic component due to material heterogeneity. In a laboratory setting mechanical, hydraulic and rock physical properties are known to change in systematic ways prior to catastrophic failure, often with significant non-Gaussian fluctuations about the mean signal at a given time, for example in the rate of remotely-sensed acoustic emissions. The effectiveness of such signals in real-time forecasting has never been tested before in a controlled laboratory setting, and previous work has often been qualitative in nature, and subject to retrospective selection bias, though it has often been invoked as a basis in forecasting natural hazard events such as volcanoes and earthquakes. Here we describe a collaborative experiment in real-time data assimilation to explore the limits of predictability of rock failure in a best-case scenario. Data are streamed from a remote rock deformation laboratory to a user-friendly portal, where several proposed physical/stochastic models can be analysed in parallel in real time, using a variety of statistical fitting techniques, including least squares regression, maximum likelihood fitting, Markov-chain Monte-Carlo and Bayesian analysis. The results are posted and regularly updated on the web site prior to catastrophic failure, to ensure a true and and verifiable prospective test of forecasting power. Preliminary tests on synthetic data with known non-Gaussian statistics shows how forecasting power is likely to evolve in the live experiments. In general the predicted failure time does converge on the real failure time, illustrating the bias associated with the 'benefit of hindsight' in retrospective analyses

Factors Influencing Progressive Failure Analysis Predictions for Laminated Composite Structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knight, Norman F., Jr.

2008-01-01

Progressive failure material modeling methods used for structural analysis including failure initiation and material degradation are presented. Different failure initiation criteria and material degradation models are described that define progressive failure formulations. These progressive failure formulations are implemented in a user-defined material model for use with a nonlinear finite element analysis tool. The failure initiation criteria include the maximum stress criteria, maximum strain criteria, the Tsai-Wu failure polynomial, and the Hashin criteria. The material degradation model is based on the ply-discounting approach where the local material constitutive coefficients are degraded. Applications and extensions of the progressive failure analysis material model address two-dimensional plate and shell finite elements and three-dimensional solid finite elements. Implementation details are described in the present paper. Parametric studies for laminated composite structures are discussed to illustrate the features of the progressive failure modeling methods that have been implemented and to demonstrate their influence on progressive failure analysis predictions.

Individual prediction of heart failure among childhood cancer survivors.

PubMed

Chow, Eric J; Chen, Yan; Kremer, Leontien C; Breslow, Norman E; Hudson, Melissa M; Armstrong, Gregory T; Border, William L; Feijen, Elizabeth A M; Green, Daniel M; Meacham, Lillian R; Meeske, Kathleen A; Mulrooney, Daniel A; Ness, Kirsten K; Oeffinger, Kevin C; Sklar, Charles A; Stovall, Marilyn; van der Pal, Helena J; Weathers, Rita E; Robison, Leslie L; Yasui, Yutaka

2015-02-10

To create clinically useful models that incorporate readily available demographic and cancer treatment characteristics to predict individual risk of heart failure among 5-year survivors of childhood cancer. Survivors in the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS) free of significant cardiovascular disease 5 years after cancer diagnosis (n = 13,060) were observed through age 40 years for the development of heart failure (ie, requiring medications or heart transplantation or leading to death). Siblings (n = 4,023) established the baseline population risk. An additional 3,421 survivors from Emma Children's Hospital (Amsterdam, the Netherlands), the National Wilms Tumor Study, and the St Jude Lifetime Cohort Study were used to validate the CCSS prediction models. Heart failure occurred in 285 CCSS participants. Risk scores based on selected exposures (sex, age at cancer diagnosis, and anthracycline and chest radiotherapy doses) achieved an area under the curve of 0.74 and concordance statistic of 0.76 at or through age 40 years. Validation cohort estimates ranged from 0.68 to 0.82. Risk scores were collapsed to form statistically distinct low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups, corresponding to cumulative incidences of heart failure at age 40 years of 0.5% (95% CI, 0.2% to 0.8%), 2.4% (95% CI, 1.8% to 3.0%), and 11.7% (95% CI, 8.8% to 14.5%), respectively. In comparison, siblings had a cumulative incidence of 0.3% (95% CI, 0.1% to 0.5%). Using information available to clinicians soon after completion of childhood cancer therapy, individual risk for subsequent heart failure can be predicted with reasonable accuracy and discrimination. These validated models provide a framework on which to base future screening strategies and interventions. © 2014 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

Extubation process in bed-ridden elderly intensive care patients receiving inspiratory muscle training: a randomized clinical trial.

PubMed

Cader, Samária Ali; de Souza Vale, Rodrigo Gomes; Zamora, Victor Emmanuel; Costa, Claudia Henrique; Dantas, Estélio Henrique Martin

2012-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the extubation process in bed-ridden elderly intensive care patients receiving inspiratory muscle training (IMT) and identify predictors of successful weaning. Twenty-eight elderly intubated patients in an intensive care unit were randomly assigned to an experimental group (n = 14) that received conventional physiotherapy plus IMT with a Threshold IMT(®) device or to a control group (n = 14) that received only conventional physiotherapy. The experimental protocol for muscle training consisted of an initial load of 30% maximum inspiratory pressure, which was increased by 10% daily. The training was administered for 5 minutes, twice daily, 7 days a week, with supplemental oxygen from the beginning of weaning until extubation. Successful extubation was defined by the ventilation time measurement with noninvasive positive pressure. A vacuum manometer was used for measurement of maximum inspiratory pressure, and the patients' Tobin index values were measured using a ventilometer. The maximum inspiratory pressure increased significantly (by 7 cm H(2)O, 95% confidence interval [CI] 4-10), and the Tobin index decreased significantly (by 16 breaths/ min/L, 95% CI -26 to 6) in the experimental group compared with the control group. The Chi-squared distribution did not indicate a significant difference in weaning success between the groups (χ(2) = 1.47; P = 0.20). However, a comparison of noninvasive positive pressure time dependence indicated a significantly lower value for the experimental group (P = 0.0001; 95% CI 13.08-18.06). The receiver-operating characteristic curve showed an area beneath the curve of 0.877 ± 0.06 for the Tobin index and 0.845 ± 0.07 for maximum inspiratory pressure. The IMT intervention significantly increased maximum inspiratory pressure and significantly reduced the Tobin index; both measures are considered to be good extubation indices. IMT was associated with a reduction in noninvasive positive

Endothelial cell density to predict endothelial graft failure after penetrating keratoplasty.

PubMed

Lass, Jonathan H; Sugar, Alan; Benetz, Beth Ann; Beck, Roy W; Dontchev, Mariya; Gal, Robin L; Kollman, Craig; Gross, Robert; Heck, Ellen; Holland, Edward J; Mannis, Mark J; Raber, Irving; Stark, Walter; Stulting, R Doyle

2010-01-01

To determine whether preoperative and/or postoperative central endothelial cell density (ECD) and its rate of decline postoperatively are predictive of graft failure caused by endothelial decompensation following penetrating keratoplasty to treat a moderate-risk condition, principally, Fuchs dystrophy or pseudophakic corneal edema. In a subset of Cornea Donor Study participants, a central reading center determined preoperative and postoperative ECD from available specular images for 17 grafts that failed because of endothelial decompensation and 483 grafts that did not fail. Preoperative ECD was not predictive of graft failure caused by endothelial decompensation (P = .91). However, the 6-month ECD was predictive of subsequent failure (P < .001). Among those that had not failed within the first 6 months, the 5-year cumulative incidence (+/-95% confidence interval) of failure was 13% (+/-12%) for the 33 participants with a 6-month ECD of less than 1700 cells/mm(2) vs 2% (+/-3%) for the 137 participants with a 6-month ECD of 2500 cells/mm(2) or higher. After 5 years' follow-up, 40 of 277 participants (14%) with a clear graft had an ECD below 500 cells/mm(2). Preoperative ECD is unrelated to graft failure from endothelial decompensation, whereas there is a strong correlation of ECD at 6 months with graft failure from endothelial decompensation. A graft can remain clear after 5 years even when the ECD is below 500 cells/mm(2).

Physiological effects of a single chest physiotherapy session in mechanically ventilated and extubated preterm neonates.

PubMed

Mehta, Y; Shetye, J; Nanavati, R; Mehta, A

2016-01-01

To assess the changes on various physiological cardio-respiratory parameters with a single chest physiotherapy session in mechanically ventilated and extubated preterm neonates with respiratory distress syndrome. This is a prospective observational study in a neonatal intensive care unit setting. Sixty preterm neonates with respiratory distress syndrome, thirty mechanically ventilated and thirty extubated preterm neonates requiring chest physiotherapy were enrolled in the study. Parameters like heart rate (HR), respiratory rate (RR), Silverman Anderson score (SA score in extubated), oxygen saturation (SpO2) and auscultation findings were noted just before, immediately after chest physiotherapy but before suctioning, immediately after suctioning and after 5 minutes of the session. The mean age of neonates was 9.55±5.86 days and mean birth weight was 1550±511.5 g. As there was no significant difference in the change in parameters on intergroup comparison, further analysis was done considering two groups together (n = 60) except for SA score. As SA score was measured only in extubated neonates. HR did not change significantly during chest physiotherapy compared to the baseline but significantly decreased after 15 minutes (p = 0.01). RR and SA score significantly increased after suctioning (p = 0.014) but reduced after 15 minutes (p = <0.0001). SpO2 significantly reduced post-suctioning compared to the baseline and increased after positioning and 15 minutes of chest physiotherapy (p = <0.0001). Clinically, there was a reduction in HR, RR and SA score with an improvement in SpO2. This signifies that chest physiotherapy may help facilitate the overall well-being of a fragile preterm neonate. Lung auscultation finding suggests that after suctioning, there was a significant reduction in crepitation (p = 0.0000) but significant increase in crepitation after 15 minutes (p = <0.01), suggesting the importance of around-the-clock chest

Machine-Learning Algorithms Predict Graft Failure After Liver Transplantation.

PubMed

Lau, Lawrence; Kankanige, Yamuna; Rubinstein, Benjamin; Jones, Robert; Christophi, Christopher; Muralidharan, Vijayaragavan; Bailey, James

2017-04-01

The ability to predict graft failure or primary nonfunction at liver transplant decision time assists utilization of scarce resource of donor livers, while ensuring that patients who are urgently requiring a liver transplant are prioritized. An index that is derived to predict graft failure using donor and recipient factors, based on local data sets, will be more beneficial in the Australian context. Liver transplant data from the Austin Hospital, Melbourne, Australia, from 2010 to 2013 has been included in the study. The top 15 donor, recipient, and transplant factors influencing the outcome of graft failure within 30 days were selected using a machine learning methodology. An algorithm predicting the outcome of interest was developed using those factors. Donor Risk Index predicts the outcome with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) value of 0.680 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.669-0.690). The combination of the factors used in Donor Risk Index with the model for end-stage liver disease score yields an AUC-ROC of 0.764 (95% CI, 0.756-0.771), whereas survival outcomes after liver transplantation score obtains an AUC-ROC of 0.638 (95% CI, 0.632-0.645). The top 15 donor and recipient characteristics within random forests results in an AUC-ROC of 0.818 (95% CI, 0.812-0.824). Using donor, transplant, and recipient characteristics known at the decision time of a transplant, high accuracy in matching donors and recipients can be achieved, potentially providing assistance with clinical decision making.

Risk prediction models for graft failure in kidney transplantation: a systematic review.

PubMed

Kaboré, Rémi; Haller, Maria C; Harambat, Jérôme; Heinze, Georg; Leffondré, Karen

2017-04-01

Risk prediction models are useful for identifying kidney recipients at high risk of graft failure, thus optimizing clinical care. Our objective was to systematically review the models that have been recently developed and validated to predict graft failure in kidney transplantation recipients. We used PubMed and Scopus to search for English, German and French language articles published in 2005-15. We selected studies that developed and validated a new risk prediction model for graft failure after kidney transplantation, or validated an existing model with or without updating the model. Data on recipient characteristics and predictors, as well as modelling and validation methods were extracted. In total, 39 articles met the inclusion criteria. Of these, 34 developed and validated a new risk prediction model and 5 validated an existing one with or without updating the model. The most frequently predicted outcome was graft failure, defined as dialysis, re-transplantation or death with functioning graft. Most studies used the Cox model. There was substantial variability in predictors used. In total, 25 studies used predictors measured at transplantation only, and 14 studies used predictors also measured after transplantation. Discrimination performance was reported in 87% of studies, while calibration was reported in 56%. Performance indicators were estimated using both internal and external validation in 13 studies, and using external validation only in 6 studies. Several prediction models for kidney graft failure in adults have been published. Our study highlights the need to better account for competing risks when applicable in such studies, and to adequately account for post-transplant measures of predictors in studies aiming at improving monitoring of kidney transplant recipients. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

Predictors of incident heart failure in patients after an acute coronary syndrome: The LIPID heart failure risk-prediction model.

PubMed

Driscoll, Andrea; Barnes, Elizabeth H; Blankenberg, Stefan; Colquhoun, David M; Hunt, David; Nestel, Paul J; Stewart, Ralph A; West, Malcolm J; White, Harvey D; Simes, John; Tonkin, Andrew

2017-12-01

Coronary heart disease is a major cause of heart failure. Availability of risk-prediction models that include both clinical parameters and biomarkers is limited. We aimed to develop such a model for prediction of incident heart failure. A multivariable risk-factor model was developed for prediction of first occurrence of heart failure death or hospitalization. A simplified risk score was derived that enabled subjects to be grouped into categories of 5-year risk varying from <5% to >20%. Among 7101 patients from the LIPID study (84% male), with median age 61years (interquartile range 55-67years), 558 (8%) died or were hospitalized because of heart failure. Older age, history of claudication or diabetes mellitus, body mass index>30kg/m 2 , LDL-cholesterol >2.5mmol/L, heart rate>70 beats/min, white blood cell count, and the nature of the qualifying acute coronary syndrome (myocardial infarction or unstable angina) were associated with an increase in heart failure events. Coronary revascularization was associated with a lower event rate. Incident heart failure increased with higher concentrations of B-type natriuretic peptide >50ng/L, cystatin C>0.93nmol/L, D-dimer >273nmol/L, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein >4.8nmol/L, and sensitive troponin I>0.018μg/L. Addition of biomarkers to the clinical risk model improved the model's C statistic from 0.73 to 0.77. The net reclassification improvement incorporating biomarkers into the clinical model using categories of 5-year risk was 23%. Adding a multibiomarker panel to conventional parameters markedly improved discrimination and risk classification for future heart failure events. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A predictive model for failure properties of thermoset resins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Caruthers, James M.; Bowles, Kenneth J.

1989-01-01

A predictive model for the three-dimensional failure behavior of engineering polymers has been developed in a recent NASA-sponsored research program. This model acknowledges the underlying molecular deformation mechanisms and thus accounts for the effects of different chemical compositions, crosslink density, functionality of the curing agent, etc., on the complete nonlinear stress-strain response including yield. The material parameters required by the model can be determined from test-tube quantities of a new resin in only a few days. Thus, we can obtain a first-order prediction of the applicability of a new resin for an advanced aerospace application without synthesizing the large quantities of material needed for failure testing. This technology will effect order-of-magnitude reductions in the time and expense required to develop new engineering polymers.

Comparison of cough reflex testing with videoendoscopy in recently extubated intensive care unit patients.

PubMed

Kallesen, Molly; Psirides, Alex; Huckabee, Maggie-Lee

2016-06-01

Orotracheal intubation is known to impair cough reflex, but the validity of cough reflex testing (CRT) as a screening tool for silent aspiration in this population is unknown. One hundred and six participants in a tertiary-level intensive care unit (ICU) underwent CRT and videoendoscopic evaluation of swallowing (VES) within 24 hours of extubation. Cough reflex threshold was established for each participant using nebulized citric acid. Thirty-nine (37%) participants had an absent cough to CRT. Thirteen (12%) participants aspirated on VES, 9 (69%) without a cough response. Sensitivity of CRT to identify silent aspiration was excellent, but specificity was poor. There was a significant correlation between intubation duration and presence of aspiration on VES (P= .0107). There was no significant correlation between silent aspiration on VES and length of intubation, age, sex, diagnosis at intensive care unit admission, indication for intubation, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III score, morphine equivalent dose, or time of testing postextubation. Intensive care unit patients are at increased risk of aspiration in the 24 hours following extubation, and an impaired cough reflex is common. However, CRT overidentifies risk of silent aspiration in this population. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An investigation of gear mesh failure prediction techniques. M.S. Thesis - Cleveland State Univ.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zakrajsek, James J.

1989-01-01

A study was performed in which several gear failure prediction methods were investigated and applied to experimental data from a gear fatigue test apparatus. The primary objective was to provide a baseline understanding of the prediction methods and to evaluate their diagnostic capabilities. The methods investigated use the signal average in both the time and frequency domain to detect gear failure. Data from eleven gear fatigue tests were recorded at periodic time intervals as the gears were run from initiation to failure. Four major failure modes, consisting of heavy wear, tooth breakage, single pits, and distributed pitting were observed among the failed gears. Results show that the prediction methods were able to detect only those gear failures which involved heavy wear or distributed pitting. None of the methods could predict fatigue cracks, which resulted in tooth breakage, or single pits. It is suspected that the fatigue cracks were not detected because of limitations in data acquisition rather than in methodology. Additionally, the frequency response between the gear shaft and the transducer was found to significantly affect the vibration signal. The specific frequencies affected were filtered out of the signal average prior to application of the methods.

Predicting failure of hematopoietic stem cell mobilization before it starts: the predicted poor mobilizer (pPM) score.

PubMed

Olivieri, Jacopo; Attolico, Immacolata; Nuccorini, Roberta; Pascale, Sara Pasquina; Chiarucci, Martina; Poiani, Monica; Corradini, Paolo; Farina, Lucia; Gaidano, Gianluca; Nassi, Luca; Sica, Simona; Piccirillo, Nicola; Pioltelli, Pietro Enrico; Martino, Massimo; Moscato, Tiziana; Pini, Massimo; Zallio, Francesco; Ciceri, Fabio; Marktel, Sarah; Mengarelli, Andrea; Musto, Pellegrino; Capria, Saveria; Merli, Francesco; Codeluppi, Katia; Mele, Giuseppe; Lanza, Francesco; Specchia, Giorgina; Pastore, Domenico; Milone, Giuseppe; Saraceni, Francesco; Di Nardo, Elvira; Perseghin, Paolo; Olivieri, Attilio

2018-04-01

Predicting mobilization failure before it starts may enable patient-tailored strategies. Although consensus criteria for predicted PM (pPM) are available, their predictive performance has never been measured on real data. We retrospectively collected and analyzed 1318 mobilization procedures performed for MM and lymphoma patients in the plerixafor era. In our sample, 180/1318 (13.7%) were PM. The score resulting from published pPM criteria had sufficient performance for predicting PM, as measured by AUC (0.67, 95%CI: 0.63-0.72). We developed a new prediction model from multivariate analysis whose score (pPM-score) resulted in better AUC (0.80, 95%CI: 0.76-0.84, p < 0001). pPM-score included as risk factors: increasing age, diagnosis of NHL, positive bone marrow biopsy or cytopenias before mobilization, previous mobilization failure, priming strategy with G-CSF alone, or without upfront plerixafor. A simplified version of pPM-score was categorized using a cut-off to maximize positive likelihood ratio (15.7, 95%CI: 9.9-24.8); specificity was 98% (95%CI: 97-98.7%), sensitivity 31.7% (95%CI: 24.9-39%); positive predictive value in our sample was 71.3% (95%CI: 60-80.8%). Simplified pPM-score can "rule in" patients at very high risk for PM before starting mobilization, allowing changes in clinical management, such as choice of alternative priming strategies, to avoid highly likely mobilization failure.

Effect of Postextubation High-Flow Nasal Cannula vs Noninvasive Ventilation on Reintubation and Postextubation Respiratory Failure in High-Risk Patients: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

PubMed

Hernández, Gonzalo; Vaquero, Concepción; Colinas, Laura; Cuena, Rafael; González, Paloma; Canabal, Alfonso; Sanchez, Susana; Rodriguez, Maria Luisa; Villasclaras, Ana; Fernández, Rafael

2016-10-18

High-flow conditioned oxygen therapy delivered through nasal cannulae and noninvasive mechanical ventilation (NIV) may reduce the need for reintubation. Among the advantages of high-flow oxygen therapy are comfort, availability, lower costs, and additional physiopathological mechanisms. To test if high-flow conditioned oxygen therapy is noninferior to NIV for preventing postextubation respiratory failure and reintubation in patients at high risk of reintubation. Multicenter randomized clinical trial in 3 intensive care units in Spain (September 2012-October 2014) including critically ill patients ready for planned extubation with at least 1 of the following high-risk factors for reintubation: older than 65 years; Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score higher than 12 points on extubation day; body mass index higher than 30; inadequate secretions management; difficult or prolonged weaning; more than 1 comorbidity; heart failure as primary indication for mechanical ventilation; moderate to severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; airway patency problems; or prolonged mechanical ventilation. Patients were randomized to undergo either high-flow conditioned oxygen therapy or NIV for 24 hours after extubation. Primary outcomes were reintubation and postextubation respiratory failure within 72 hours. Noninferiority margin was 10 percentage points. Secondary outcomes included respiratory infection, sepsis, and multiple organ failure, length of stay and mortality; adverse events; and time to reintubation. Of 604 patients (mean age, 65 [SD, 16] years; 388 [64%] men), 314 received NIV and 290 high-flow oxygen. Sixty-six patients (22.8%) in the high-flow group vs 60 (19.1%) in the NIV group were reintubation (absolute difference, -3.7%; 95% CI, -9.1% to ∞); 78 patients (26.9%) in the high-flow group vs 125 (39.8%) in the NIV group experienced postextubation respiratory failure (risk difference, 12.9%; 95% CI, 6.6% to ∞) [corrected]. Median time to

Prophylactic dexamethasone decreases the incidence of sore throat and hoarseness after tracheal extubation with a double-lumen endobronchial tube.

PubMed

Park, Sang-Hyun; Han, Sung-Hee; Do, Sang-Hwan; Kim, Jung-Won; Rhee, Ka-young; Kim, Jin-Hee

2008-12-01

Postoperative sore throat and hoarseness are common complications after tracheal intubation, particularly after using a double-lumen endobronchial tube (DLT). We conducted a prospective, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study to evaluate the efficacy of dexamethasone for reducing the incidence and severity of postoperative sore throat and hoarseness. One hundred sixty-six patients (aged 18-75 yr) scheduled for thoracic surgery with a DLT were enrolled. Before induction of general anesthesia, 0.1 mg/kg dexamethasone (Group D1), 0.2 mg/kg dexamethasone (Group D2), or a placebo (Group P) were infused i.v. in a double-blind and prospectively randomized manner. Glottic exposure as defined by Cormack and Lehane score, resistance to DLT insertion, number of intubation attempts, time to achieve intubation, and the duration of tracheal intubation were recorded. At 1 h and 24 h after tracheal extubation, the patients were evaluated for sore throat and hoarseness using a visual analog scale (VAS; where 0 = no pain and 100 = worst pain imaginable). One hour after tracheal extubation, the incidence of postoperative sore throat and hoarseness, along with the severity of sore throat were lower in Group D1 (31%, P = 0.021; 11%, P = 0.003; and VAS 12.4, P < 0.001, respectively) and D2 (11%, P = 0.001; 4%, P = 0.001; and VAS 6.6, P < 0.001, respectively) compared with Group P (53%, 36% and VAS 30.9, respectively). Twenty-four hours after tracheal extubation, the incidence of postoperative sore throat, hoarseness, and the severity of sore throat were significantly lower in Group D2 (27%, P = 0.002; 15%, P = 0.001; and VAS 29.9, P < 0.002, respectively) compared with Group D1 (47%, 31%, and VAS = 43.9, respectively) and Group P (57%, 45%, and VAS = 51.3, respectively). There was no complication associated with the dexamethasone administration. The prophylactic use of 0.2 mg/kg of dexamethasone significantly decreases the incidence and severity of sore throat and hoarseness

On the State of Stress and Failure Prediction Near Planetary Surface Loads

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, R. A.

1996-03-01

The state of stress surrounding planetary surface loads has been used extensively to predict failure of surface rocks and to invert this information for effective elastic thickness. As demonstrated previously, however, several factors can be important including an explicit comparison between model stresses and rock strength as well as the magnitude of calculated stress. As re-emphasized below, failure to take stress magnitudes into account can lead to erroneous predictions of near-surface faulting. This abstract results from discussions on graben formation at Fall 1995 AGU.

Using a Context-aware Medical Application to Address Information Needs for Extubation Decisions

PubMed Central

Zhu, Xinxin; Lord, William

2005-01-01

Information overload has been one of the causes of preventable medical errors [1] and escalating costs [2]. A context-aware application with embedded clinical knowledge is proposed to provide practitioners with the appropriate amount of information and content. We developed a prototype of a context-aware medical application to address clinicians’ information needs that arise in a data-intensive unit, the Cardio-Thoracic Intensive Care Unit (CTICU). A major clinical decision supported by the prototype, the extubation decision, is illustrated. PMID:16779455

The Predictive Value of Integrated Pulmonary Index after Off-Pump Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting: A Prospective Observational Study.

PubMed

Fot, Evgenia V; Izotova, Natalia N; Yudina, Anjelika S; Smetkin, Aleksei A; Kuzkov, Vsevolod V; Kirov, Mikhail Y

2017-01-01

The early warning scores may increase the safety of perioperative period. The objective of this study was to assess the diagnostic and predictive role of Integrated Pulmonary Index (IPI) after off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting (OPCAB). Forty adult patients undergoing elective OPCAB were enrolled into a single-center prospective observational study. We assessed respiratory function using IPI that includes oxygen saturation, end-tidal CO 2 , respiratory rate, and pulse rate. In addition, we evaluated blood gas analyses and hemodynamics, including ECG, invasive arterial pressure, and cardiac index. The measurements were performed after transfer to the intensive care unit, after spontaneous breathing trial and at 2, 6, 12, and 18 h after extubation. The value of IPI registered during respiratory support correlated weakly with cardiac index (rho = 0.4; p  = 0.04) and ScvO 2 (rho = 0.4, p  = 0.02). After extubation, IPI values decreased significantly, achieving a minimum by 18 h. The IPI value ≤9 at 6 h after extubation was a predictor of complicated early postoperative period (AUC = 0.71; p  = 0.04) observed in 13 patients. In off-pump coronary surgery, the IPI decreases significantly after tracheal extubation and may predict postoperative complications.

Metallic ureteral stents in malignant ureteral obstruction: clinical factors predicting stent failure.

PubMed

Chow, Po-Ming; Hsu, Jui-Shan; Huang, Chao-Yuan; Wang, Shuo-Meng; Lee, Yuan-Ju; Huang, Kuo-How; Yu, Hong-Jheng; Pu, Yeong-Shiau; Liang, Po-Chin

2014-06-01

To provide clinical outcomes of the Resonance metallic ureteral stent in patients with malignant ureteral obstruction, as well as clinical factors predicting stent failure. Cancer patients who have received Resonance stents from July 2009 to March 2012 for ureteral obstruction were included for chart review. Stent failure was detected by clinical symptoms, image studies, and renal function tests. Survival analysis for stent duration was used to estimate patency rate and factors predicting stent failure. A total of 117 stents were inserted successfully into 94 ureteral units in 79 patients. There were no major complications. These stents underwent survival analysis and proportional hazard regression. The median duration for the stents was 5.77 months. In multivariate analysis, age (P=0.043), preoperative serum creatinine level (P=0.0174), and cancer type (P=0.0494) were significant factors associated with stent failure. Cancer treatment before and after stent insertion had no effect on stent duration. Resonance stents are effective and safe in relieving malignant ureteral obstructions. Old age and high serum creatinine level are predictors for stent failure. Stents in patients with lower gastrointestinal cancers have longer functional duration.

Sonographical predictive markers of failure of induction of labour in term pregnancy.

PubMed

Brik, Maia; Mateos, Silvia; Fernandez-Buhigas, Irene; Garbayo, Paloma; Costa, Gloria; Santacruz, Belen

2017-02-01

Predictive markers of failure of induction of labour in term pregnancy were evaluated. A prospective study including 245 women attending induction of labour was performed. The inclusion criteria were singleton pregnancies, gestational age 37-42 weeks and the main outcomes were failure of induction, induction to delivery interval and mode of delivery. Women with a longer cervical length prior to induction (CLpi) had a higher rate of failure of induction (30.9 ± 6.8 vs. 23.9 ± 9.3, p < .001). BMI was higher and maternal height was lower in the group of caesarean section compared to vaginal delivery (33.1 ± 8 vs. 29.3 ± 4.6, 160 ± 5 vs. 164 ± 5, p < .001, respectively). A shorter CLpi correlated with a shorter induction to delivery interval (R Pearson .237, p < .001). In the regression analysis, for failure of induction the only independent predictor was the CL prior to induction. Therefore, the CLpi is an independent factor for prediction of failure of induction of labour.

Predicting Time Series Outputs and Time-to-Failure for an Aircraft Controller Using Bayesian Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

He, Yuning

2015-01-01

Safety of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) is paramount, but the large number of dynamically changing controller parameters makes it hard to determine if the system is currently stable, and the time before loss of control if not. We propose a hierarchical statistical model using Treed Gaussian Processes to predict (i) whether a flight will be stable (success) or become unstable (failure), (ii) the time-to-failure if unstable, and (iii) time series outputs for flight variables. We first classify the current flight input into success or failure types, and then use separate models for each class to predict the time-to-failure and time series outputs. As different inputs may cause failures at different times, we have to model variable length output curves. We use a basis representation for curves and learn the mappings from input to basis coefficients. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our prediction methods on a NASA neuro-adaptive flight control system.

Clinical presentation at first heart failure hospitalization does not predict recurrent heart failure admission.

PubMed

Kosztin, Annamaria; Costa, Jason; Moss, Arthur J; Biton, Yitschak; Nagy, Vivien Klaudia; Solomon, Scott D; Geller, Laszlo; McNitt, Scott; Polonsky, Bronislava; Merkely, Bela; Kutyifa, Valentina

2017-11-01

There are limited data on whether clinical presentation at first heart failure (HF) hospitalization predicts recurrent HF events. We aimed to assess predictors of recurrent HF hospitalizations in mild HF patients with an implantable cardioverter defibrillator or cardiac resynchronization therapy with defibrillator. Data on HF hospitalizations were prospectively collected for patients enrolled in MADIT-CRT. Predictors of recurrent HF hospitalization (HF2) after the first HF hospitalization were assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression models including baseline covariates and clinical presentation or management at first HF hospitalization. There were 193 patients with first HF hospitalization, and 156 patients with recurrent HF events. Recurrent HF rate after the first HF hospitalization was 43% at 1 year, 52% at 2 years, and 55% at 2.5 years. Clinical signs and symptoms, medical treatment, or clinical management of HF at first HF admission was not predictive for HF2. Baseline covariates predicting recurrent HF hospitalization included prior HF hospitalization (HR = 1.59, 95% CI: 1.15-2.20, P = 0.005), digitalis therapy (HR = 1.58, 95% CI: 1.13-2.20, P = 0.008), and left ventricular end-diastolic volume >240 mL (HR = 1.62, 95% CI: 1.17-2.25, P = 0.004). Recurrent HF events are frequent following the first HF hospitalization in patients with implanted implantable cardioverter defibrillator or cardiac resynchronization therapy with defibrillator. Neither clinical presentation nor clinical management during first HF admission was predictive of recurrent HF. Prior HF hospitalization, digitalis therapy, and left ventricular end-diastolic volume at enrolment predicted recurrent HF hospitalization, and these covariates could be used as surrogate markers for identifying a high-risk cohort. © 2017 The Authors. ESC Heart Failure published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.

West Nile Meningoencephalitis Presenting as Isolated Bulbar Palsy With Hypercapnic Respiratory Failure: Case Report and Literature Review.

PubMed

Tso, Geoffrey; Kaldas, Kirsten; Springer, Joseph; Barot, Nikhil; Kamangar, Nader

2016-05-01

Since the outbreak of West Nile virus (WNV) in the United States in 1999, the WNV neuroinvasive disease has been increasingly reported with a wide spectrum of neuromuscular manifestations. We submit a case of a 46-year-old male with a history of alcohol abuse, diabetes, hypertension, and hepatitis C who presented with fever, nausea, shortness of breath, and dysphagia. The patient rapidly developed hypercapnic respiratory failure and was found to have WNV meningoencephalitis without obvious neuromuscular weakness. His hospital course was significant for repeated failures of extubation secondary to persistent bulbar weakness eventually requiring tracheotomy. This is a unique case of WNV meningoencephalitis with bulbar palsy without other neuromuscular manifestations resulting in recurrent hypercapnic respiratory failure. © The Author(s) 2015.

Clinical guideline for nurse-led early extubation after coronary artery bypass: an evaluation.

PubMed

Hawkes, Claire; Foxcroft, David R; Yerrell, Paul

2010-09-01

This paper is a report of an investigation of the development, implementation and outcomes of a clinical guideline for nurse-led early extubation of adult coronary artery bypass graft patients. Healthcare knowledge translation and utilization is an emerging but under-developed research area. The complex context for guideline development and use is methodologically challenging for robust and rigorous evaluation. This study contributes one such evaluation. This was a mixed methods evaluation, with a dominant quantitative study with a secondary qualitative study in a single UK cardiac surgery centre. An interrupted time series study (N = 567 elective coronary artery bypass graft patients) with concurrent within person controls was used to measure the impact of the guideline on the primary outcome: time to extubation. Semi-structured interviews with 11 clinical staff, informed by applied practitioner ethnography, explored the process of guideline development and implementation. The data were collected between January 2001 and January 2003. There was no change in the interrupted time series study primary outcome as a consequence of the guideline implementation. The qualitative study identified three themes: context, process and tensions highlighting that the guideline did not require clinicians to change their practice, although it may have helped maintain practice through its educative role. Further investigation and development of appropriate methods to capture the dynamism in healthcare contexts and its impact on guideline implementation seems warranted. Multi-site mixed methods investigations and programmes of research exploring knowledge translation and utilization initiatives, such as guideline implementation, are needed.

Development and evaluation of a composite risk score to predict kidney transplant failure.

PubMed

Moore, Jason; He, Xiang; Shabir, Shazia; Hanvesakul, Rajesh; Benavente, David; Cockwell, Paul; Little, Mark A; Ball, Simon; Inston, Nicholas; Johnston, Atholl; Borrows, Richard

2011-05-01

Although risk factors for kidney transplant failure are well described, prognostic risk scores to estimate risk in prevalent transplant recipients are limited. Development and validation of risk-prediction instruments. The development data set included 2,763 prevalent patients more than 12 months posttransplant enrolled into the LOTESS (Long Term Efficacy and Safety Surveillance) Study. The validation data set included 731 patients who underwent transplant at a single UK center. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and other risk factors were evaluated using Cox regression. Scores for death-censored and overall transplant failure were based on the summed hazard ratios for baseline predictor variables. Predictive performance was assessed using calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic), discrimination (C statistic), and clinical reclassification (net reclassification improvement) compared with eGFR alone. In the development data set, 196 patients died and another 225 experienced transplant failure. eGFR, recipient age, race, serum urea and albumin levels, declining eGFR, and prior acute rejection predicted death-censored transplant failure. eGFR, recipient age, sex, serum urea and albumin levels, and declining eGFR predicted overall transplant failure. In the validation data set, 44 patients died and another 101 experienced transplant failure. The weighted scores comprising these variables showed adequate discrimination and calibration for death-censored (C statistic, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.75-0.91; Hosmer-Lemeshow χ(2)P = 0.8) and overall (C statistic, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.64-0.77; Hosmer-Lemeshow χ(2)P = 0.5) transplant failure. However, the scores failed to reclassify risk compared with eGFR alone (net reclassification improvements of 7.6% [95% CI, -0.2 to 13.4; P = 0.09] and 4.3% [95% CI, -2.7 to 11.8; P = 0.3] for death-censored and overall transplant failure, respectively). Retrospective analysis of predominantly cyclosporine-treated patients; limited study size and

The second Sandia Fracture Challenge. Predictions of ductile failure under quasi-static and moderate-rate dynamic loading

DOE PAGES

Boyce, B. L.; Kramer, S. L. B.; Bosiljevac, T. R.; ...

2016-03-14

Ductile failure of structural metals is relevant to a wide range of engineering scenarios. Computational methods are employed to anticipate the critical conditions of failure, yet they sometimes provide inaccurate and misleading predictions. Challenge scenarios, such as the one presented in the current work, provide an opportunity to assess the blind, quantitative predictive ability of simulation methods against a previously unseen failure problem. Instead of evaluating the predictions of a single simulation approach, the Sandia Fracture Challenge relied on numerous volunteer teams with expertise in computational mechanics to apply a broad range of computational methods, numerical algorithms, and constitutive modelsmore » to the challenge. This exercise is intended to evaluate the state of health of technologies available for failure prediction. In the first Sandia Fracture Challenge, a wide range of issues were raised in ductile failure modeling, including a lack of consistency in failure models, the importance of shear calibration data, and difficulties in quantifying the uncertainty of prediction [see Boyce et al. (Int J Fract 186:5–68, 2014) for details of these observations]. This second Sandia Fracture Challenge investigated the ductile rupture of a Ti–6Al–4V sheet under both quasi-static and modest-rate dynamic loading (failure in ~ 0.1 s). Like the previous challenge, the sheet had an unusual arrangement of notches and holes that added geometric complexity and fostered a competition between tensile- and shear-dominated failure modes. The teams were asked to predict the fracture path and quantitative far-field failure metrics such as the peak force and displacement to cause crack initiation. Fourteen teams contributed blind predictions, and the experimental outcomes were quantified in three independent test labs. In addition, shortcomings were revealed in this second challenge such as inconsistency in the application of appropriate boundary

The second Sandia Fracture Challenge. Predictions of ductile failure under quasi-static and moderate-rate dynamic loading

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boyce, B. L.; Kramer, S. L. B.; Bosiljevac, T. R.

Ductile failure of structural metals is relevant to a wide range of engineering scenarios. Computational methods are employed to anticipate the critical conditions of failure, yet they sometimes provide inaccurate and misleading predictions. Challenge scenarios, such as the one presented in the current work, provide an opportunity to assess the blind, quantitative predictive ability of simulation methods against a previously unseen failure problem. Instead of evaluating the predictions of a single simulation approach, the Sandia Fracture Challenge relied on numerous volunteer teams with expertise in computational mechanics to apply a broad range of computational methods, numerical algorithms, and constitutive modelsmore » to the challenge. This exercise is intended to evaluate the state of health of technologies available for failure prediction. In the first Sandia Fracture Challenge, a wide range of issues were raised in ductile failure modeling, including a lack of consistency in failure models, the importance of shear calibration data, and difficulties in quantifying the uncertainty of prediction [see Boyce et al. (Int J Fract 186:5–68, 2014) for details of these observations]. This second Sandia Fracture Challenge investigated the ductile rupture of a Ti–6Al–4V sheet under both quasi-static and modest-rate dynamic loading (failure in ~ 0.1 s). Like the previous challenge, the sheet had an unusual arrangement of notches and holes that added geometric complexity and fostered a competition between tensile- and shear-dominated failure modes. The teams were asked to predict the fracture path and quantitative far-field failure metrics such as the peak force and displacement to cause crack initiation. Fourteen teams contributed blind predictions, and the experimental outcomes were quantified in three independent test labs. In addition, shortcomings were revealed in this second challenge such as inconsistency in the application of appropriate boundary

Identifying the necessary and sufficient number of risk factors for predicting academic failure.

PubMed

Lucio, Robert; Hunt, Elizabeth; Bornovalova, Marina

2012-03-01

Identifying the point at which individuals become at risk for academic failure (grade point average [GPA] < 2.0) involves an understanding of which and how many factors contribute to poor outcomes. School-related factors appear to be among the many factors that significantly impact academic success or failure. This study focused on 12 school-related factors. Using a thorough 5-step process, we identified which unique risk factors place one at risk for academic failure. Academic engagement, academic expectations, academic self-efficacy, homework completion, school relevance, school safety, teacher relationships (positive relationship), grade retention, school mobility, and school misbehaviors (negative relationship) were uniquely related to GPA even after controlling for all relevant covariates. Next, a receiver operating characteristic curve was used to determine a cutoff point for determining how many risk factors predict academic failure (GPA < 2.0). Results yielded a cutoff point of 2 risk factors for predicting academic failure, which provides a way for early identification of individuals who are at risk. Further implications of these findings are discussed. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

Progressive Failure And Life Prediction of Ceramic and Textile Composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xue, David Y.; Shi, Yucheng; Katikala, Madhu; Johnston, William M., Jr.; Card, Michael F.

1998-01-01

An engineering approach to predict the fatigue life and progressive failure of multilayered composite and textile laminates is presented. Analytical models which account for matrix cracking, statistical fiber failures and nonlinear stress-strain behavior have been developed for both composites and textiles. The analysis method is based on a combined micromechanics, fracture mechanics and failure statistics analysis. Experimentally derived empirical coefficients are used to account for the interface of fiber and matrix, fiber strength, and fiber-matrix stiffness reductions. Similar approaches were applied to textiles using Repeating Unit Cells. In composite fatigue analysis, Walker's equation is applied for matrix fatigue cracking and Heywood's formulation is used for fiber strength fatigue degradation. The analysis has been compared with experiment with good agreement. Comparisons were made with Graphite-Epoxy, C/SiC and Nicalon/CAS composite materials. For textile materials, comparisons were made with triaxial braided and plain weave materials under biaxial or uniaxial tension. Fatigue predictions were compared with test data obtained from plain weave C/SiC materials tested at AS&M. Computer codes were developed to perform the analysis. Composite Progressive Failure Analysis for Laminates is contained in the code CPFail. Micromechanics Analysis for Textile Composites is contained in the code MicroTex. Both codes were adapted to run as subroutines for the finite element code ABAQUS and CPFail-ABAQUS and MicroTex-ABAQUS. Graphic user interface (GUI) was developed to connect CPFail and MicroTex with ABAQUS.

[Effect of hypophosphatemia on weaning success from mechanical ventilation].

PubMed

Kara, Atilla; Kızılarslanoğlu, Muhammet Cemal; Bolayır, Başak; Ortaç Ersoy, Ebru; Öcal, Serpil; Çakır, Banu; Tezcan, Sabahat; Topeli, Arzu

2015-06-01

Hypophosphatemia may cause acute respiratory failure and tissue hypoxia. In this study we investigated the effect of hypophosphatemia on weaning success. A nested case-control study was conducted in a retrospective cohort of 76 patients who received invasive mechanical ventilation in 2005-2010 in the Medical Intensive Care Unit (MICU) of university hospital. Case patients (failure group) were those who could not be weaned in the first trial or who required post-extubation mechanical ventilation after first extubation. Control patients (success group) were successfully extubated in the first weaning attempt. Frequency of hypophosphatemia (P level < 2.5 mg/dL) at admission was 23.7%. Weaning failure rate was 71.1%. Risk of weaning failure in the presence of hypophosphatemia was 88.9%, whereas risk in the absence of hypophosphatemia was 65.5%, resulting in risk ratio of 1.36 (1.06 - 1.74) (p= 0.096). Mean (± SD) P levels in the success and failure groups were 3.6 ± 1.0 and 3.2 ± 1.0 mg/dL, respectively (p= 0.113). Logistic regression analysis revealed four independent risk factors which were presence of underlying chronic pulmonary disease, high organ dysfunction score (SOFA) at admission, high blood urea nitrogen at the day of weaning trial and low P level at admission to predict weaning failure. Each 1 mg/dL increment in P level resulted in decreased probability of weaning failure with an OR of 0.43 (0.21-0.88). In conclusion, a relation between hypophosphatemia and weaning failure was determined which has to be confirmed with prospective cohort and interventional studies with adequate power.

[Use of the air-Q laryngeal airway and tube exchanger in a case of difficult tracheal extubation after maxillectomy].

PubMed

Komasawa, Nobuyasu; Ueki, Ryusuke; Iwasaki, Yohei; Tatara, Tsuneo; Tashiro, Chikara; Kaminoh, Yoshiroh

2012-10-01

A 79-year-old man was diagnosed with maxillary cancer and underwent total maxillectomy under general anesthesia. The oropharyngeal airway was needed for efficient mask ventilation during anesthesia induction. The maxilla was totally resected and reconstructed with skin from a femoral flap. Tracheal extubation was considered to be difficult given that mask ventilation was contraindicated due to reconstruction of the maxilla. After inserting a tube exchanger (TE) into the trachea, the tracheal tube was exchanged with an air-Q laryngeal airway through the TE. After confirming effective ventilation with the air-Q mask, the patient was awakened from anesthesia. We confirmed sufficient spontaneous breathing and no active bleeding in the pharynx. After re-inserting the TE thorough air-Q, the air-Q was removed, followed by removal of the TE. These findings suggest that the air-Q and TE were effective in a case of difficult extubation after maxillectomy.

Glyburide in gestational diabetes--prediction of treatment failure.

PubMed

Yogev, Yariv; Melamed, Nir; Chen, Rony; Nassie, Daniel; Pardo, Joseph; Hod, Moshe

2011-06-01

To identify factors predicting failure of glyburide treatment in women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). A retrospective study of all women with GDM that were treated with glyburide in a single tertiary referral center. Patients were switched from glyburide to insulin if they failed to achieve glycemic goals, and were then classified as glyburide failure. Overall, 124 women with GDM treated with glyburide were included in the study, of which 31 (25%) failed to achieve glycemic control. Women in the failure group were characterized by a higher weight gain during pregnancy, higher rates of GDM on previous pregnancies, and a glucose challenge test (GCT) result. On multivariate logistic regression analysis, a GCT value of >200 mg/dl (OR = 7.1, 95% CI 2.8-27.6) and weight gain ≥ 12 kg (OR = 3.9, 95% CI 1.2-13.0) were the only significant and independent predictors of glyburide failure. Most women who were successfully treated with glyburide required a daily dose of 5 mg or less and the time required to achieve glycemic control in these cases was 12.4 ± 4.9 days (range 5-24 days). Of the women who failed to achieve glycemic control with gluburide, 26/31 were switched to insulin, of them only 12 (46%) achieved desired level of glycemic control. Most women with GDM achieved desired level of glycemic control under glyburide treatment.

Electromigration model for the prediction of lifetime based on the failure unit statistics in aluminum metallization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Jong Ho; Ahn, Byung Tae

2003-01-01

A failure model for electromigration based on the "failure unit model" was presented for the prediction of lifetime in metal lines.The failure unit model, which consists of failure units in parallel and series, can predict both the median time to failure (MTTF) and the deviation in the time to failure (DTTF) in Al metal lines. The model can describe them only qualitatively. In our model, both the probability function of the failure unit in single grain segments and polygrain segments are considered instead of in polygrain segments alone. Based on our model, we calculated MTTF, DTTF, and activation energy for different median grain sizes, grain size distributions, linewidths, line lengths, current densities, and temperatures. Comparisons between our results and published experimental data showed good agreements and our model could explain the previously unexplained phenomena. Our advanced failure unit model might be further applied to other electromigration characteristics of metal lines.

A simple nonlocal damage model for predicting failure of notched laminates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kennedy, T. C.; Nahan, M. F.

1995-01-01

The ability to predict failure loads in notched composite laminates is a requirement in a variety of structural design circumstances. A complicating factor is the development of a zone of damaged material around the notch tip. The objective of this study was to develop a computational technique that simulates progressive damage growth around a notch in a manner that allows the prediction of failure over a wide range of notch sizes. This was accomplished through the use of a relatively simple, nonlocal damage model that incorporates strain-softening. This model was implemented in a two-dimensional finite element program. Calculations were performed for two different laminates with various notch sizes under tensile loading, and the calculations were found to correlate well with experimental results.

Improved failure prediction in forming simulations through pre-strain mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Upadhya, Siddharth; Staupendahl, Daniel; Heuse, Martin; Tekkaya, A. Erman

2018-05-01

The sensitivity of sheared edges of advanced high strength steel (AHSS) sheets to cracking during subsequent forming operations and the difficulty to predict this failure with any degree of accuracy using conventionally used FLC based failure criteria is a major problem plaguing the manufacturing industry. A possible method that allows for an accurate prediction of edge cracks is the simulation of the shearing operation and carryover of this model into a subsequent forming simulation. But even with an efficient combination of a solid element shearing operation and a shell element forming simulation, the need for a fine mesh, and the resulting high computation time makes this approach not viable from an industry point of view. The crack sensitivity of sheared edges is due to work hardening in the shear-affected zone (SAZ). A method to predict plastic strains induced by the shearing process is to measure the hardness after shearing and calculate the ultimate tensile strength as well as the flow stress. In combination with the flow curve, the relevant strain data can be obtained. To eliminate the time-intensive shearing simulation necessary to obtain the strain data in the SAZ, a new pre-strain mapping approach is proposed. The pre-strains to be mapped are, hereby, determined from hardness values obtained in the proximity of the sheared edge. To investigate the performance of this approach the ISO/TS 16630 hole expansion test was simulated with shell elements for different materials, whereby the pre-strains were mapped onto the edge of the hole. The hole expansion ratios obtained from such pre-strain mapped simulations are in close agreement with the experimental results. Furthermore, the simulations can be carried out with no increase in computation time, making this an interesting and viable solution for predicting edge failure due to shearing.

The routine use of pediatric airway exchange catheter after extubation of adult patients who have undergone maxillofacial or major neck surgery: a clinical observational study.

PubMed

Dosemeci, Levent; Yilmaz, Murat; Yegin, Arif; Cengiz, Melike; Ramazanoglu, Atilla

2004-12-01

We conducted the present study to determine the usefulness of routinely inserting a pediatric airway exchange catheter (PAEC) before tracheal extubation of adult patients who had undergone maxillofacial or major neck surgery and have risk factors for difficult reintubation. A prospective, observational and clinical study was performed in the 25-bed general intensive care unit of a university hospital. Thirty-six adult patients who underwent maxillofacial or major neck surgery and had risk factors for difficult reintubation were extubated after insertion of the PAEC. Four of 36 (11.1%) patients required emergency reintubation after 2, 4, 6 and 18 hours after tracheal extubation, respectively. Reintubation of these patients, which was thought to be nearly impossible by direct laryngoscopy, was easily achieved over the PAEC. The PAEC can be a life-saving device during reintubation of patients with risk factors for difficult reintubation such as laryngeo-pharyngeal oedema due to surgical manipulation or airway obstruction resulting from haematoma and anatomic changes. We therefore suggest the routine use of the PAEC in patients undergoing major maxillofacial or major neck surgery.

A Brief Review of Non-invasive Monitoring of Respiratory Condition for Extubated Patients with or at Risk for Obstructive Sleep Apnea after Surgery

PubMed Central

Zhang, Xuezheng; Kassem, Mahmoud Attia Mohamed; Zhou, Ying; Shabsigh, Muhammad; Wang, Quanguang; Xu, Xuzhong

2017-01-01

Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is one of the important risk factors contributing to postoperative airway complications. OSA alters the respiratory physiology and increases the sensitivity of muscle tone of the upper airway after surgery to residual anesthetic medication. In addition, the prevalence of OSA was reported to be much higher among surgical patients than the general population. Therefore, appropriate monitoring to detect early respiratory impairment in postoperative extubated patients with possible OSA is challenging. Based on the comprehensive clinical observation, several equipment have been used for monitoring the respiratory conditions of OSA patients after surgery, including the continuous pulse oximetry, capnography, photoplethysmography (PPG), and respiratory volume monitor (RVM). To date, there has been no consensus on the most suitable device as a recommended standard of care. In this review, we describe the advantages and disadvantages of some possible monitoring strategies under certain clinical conditions. According to the literature, the continuous pulse oximetry, with its high sensitivity, is still the most widely used device. It is also cost-effective and convenient to use but has low specificity and does not reflect ventilation. Capnography is the most widely used device for detection of hypoventilation, but it may not provide reliable data for extubated patients. Even normal capnography cannot exclude the existence of hypoxia. PPG shows the state of both ventilation and oxygenation, but its sensitivity needs further improvement. RVM provides real-time detection of hypoventilation, quantitative precise demonstration of respiratory rate, tidal volume, and MV for extubated patients, but no reflection of oxygenation. Altogether, the sole use of any of these devices is not ideal for monitoring of extubated patients with or at risk for OSA after surgery. However, we expect that the combined use of continuous pulse oximetry and RVM may be

Effects of Lignocaine Administered Intravenously or Intratracheally on Airway and Hemodynamic Responses during Emergence and Extubation in Patients Undergoing Elective Craniotomies in Supine Position.

PubMed

Shabnum, Tabasum; Ali, Zulfiqar; Naqash, Imtiaz Ahmad; Mir, Aabid Hussain; Azhar, Khan; Zahoor, Syed Amer; Mir, Abdul Waheed

2017-01-01

Sympathoadrenergic responses during emergence and extubation can lead to an increase in heart rate (HR) and blood pressure whereas increased airway responses may lead to coughing and laryngospasm. The aim of our study was to compare the effects of lignocaine administered intravenously (IV) or intratracheally on airway and hemodynamic responses during emergence and extubation in patients undergoing elective craniotomies. Sixty patients with physical status American Society of Anaesthesiologists Classes I and II aged 18-70 years, scheduled to undergo elective craniotomies were included. The patients were randomly divided into three groups of twenty patients; Group 1 receiving IV lignocaine and intratracheal placebo (IV group), Group 2 receiving intratracheal lignocaine and IV placebo (I/T group), and Group 3 receiving IV and intratracheal placebo (placebo group). The tolerance to the endotracheal tube was monitored, and number of episodes of cough was recorded during emergence and at the time of extubation. Hemodynamic parameters such as HR and blood pressure (systolic, diastolic, mean arterial pressure) were also recorded. There was a decrease of HR in both IV and intratracheal groups in comparison with placebo group ( P < 0.005). Rise in blood pressure (systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure and mean arterial pressure) was comparable in both Groups 1 and 2 but was lower in comparison with placebo group ( P < 0.005). Cough suppression was comparable in all the three groups. Grade III cough (15%) was documented only in placebo group. Both IV and intratracheal lignocaine are effective in attenuation of hemodynamic response if given within 20 min from skull pin removal to extubation. There was comparable cough suppression through intratracheal route and IV routes than the placebo group.

Crisis Management of Accidental Extubation in a Prone-Positioned Patient with Klippel-Feil Syndrome.

PubMed

Spond, Matthew; Burns, Tyler; Rosenbaum, Thea; Lienhart, Kristen

2016-06-15

We present the case of an accidental extubation in a prone-positioned patient with a challenging airway because of Klippel-Feil syndrome and previous cervical spine fusions. The surgical procedure was well underway when this occurred, which added substantially to the difficulties produced by this event. We herein highlight the corrective steps we took in our case. We also recommend the need for a comprehensive preoperative briefing with all operating room personnel together with an action plan for how to prevent this particular scenario.

Point-shear wave elastography predicts liver hypertrophy after portal vein embolization and postoperative liver failure.

PubMed

Hocquelet, A; Frulio, N; Gallo, G; Laurent, C; Papadopoulos, P; Salut, C; Denys, A; Trillaud, H

2018-06-01

To correlate point-shear wave elastography (SWE) with liver hypertrophy after right portal vein embolization (RPVE) and to determine its usefulness in predicting postoperative liver failure in patients undergoing partial liver resection. Point-SWE was performed the day before RPVE in 56 patients (41 men) with a median age of 66 years. The percentage (%) of future remnant liver (FRL) volume increase was defined as: %FRL post -%FRL pre %FRL pre ×100 and assessed on computed tomography performed 4 weeks after RPVE. Median (range) %FRL pre and %FRL post was respectively, 31.5% (12-48%) and 41% (23-61%) (P<0.001), with a median %FRL volume increase of 25.6% (-8; 123%). SWE correlated with %FRL volume increase (P=-0.510; P<0.001). SWV (P=0.003) and %FRL pre (P<0.001) were associated with %FRL volume increase at multivariate regression analysis. Forty-three patients (77%) were operated. Postoperative liver failure occurred in 14 patients (32.5%). Median SWE was different between the group with (1.68m/s) and without liver failure (1.07m/s) (P=0.018). The AUROC of SWE predicting liver failure was 0.724 with a best cut-off of 1.31m/s, corresponding to a sensitivity of 21%, specificity of 96%, positive predictive value 75% and negative predictive value of 72%. SWE was the single independent preoperative variable associated with liver failure. SWE assessed by point-SWE is a simple and useful tool to predict the FRL volume increase and postoperative liver failure in a population of patients with liver tumor. Copyright © 2018 Société française de radiologie. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Early Shear Failure Prediction in Incremental Sheet Forming Process Using FEM and ANN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moayedfar, Majid; Hanaei, Hengameh; Majdi Rani, Ahmad; Musa, Mohd Azam Bin; Sadegh Momeni, Mohammad

2018-03-01

The application of incremental sheet forming process as a rapid forming technique is rising in variety of industries such as aerospace, automotive and biomechanical purposes. However, the sheet failure is a big challenge in this process which leads wasting lots of materials. Hence, this study tried to propose a method to predict the early sheet failure in this process using mathematical solution. For the feasibility of the study, design of experiment with the respond surface method is employed to extract a set of experiments data for the simulation. The significant forming parameters were recognized and their integration was used for prediction system. Then, the results were inserted to the artificial neural network as input parameters to predict a vast range of applicable parameters avoiding sheet failure in ISF. The value of accuracy R2 ∼0.93 was obtained and the maximum sheet stretch in the depth of 25mm were recorded. The figures generate from the trend of interaction between effective parameters were provided for future studies.

Predictive factors of tumor control and survival after radiosurgery for local failures of nasopharyngeal carcinoma.

PubMed

Chua, Daniel T T; Sham, Jonathan S T; Hung, Kwan-Ngai; Leung, Lucullus H T; Au, Gordon K H

2006-12-01

Stereotactic radiosurgery has been employed as a salvage treatment of local failures of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). To identify patients that would benefit from radiosurgery, we reviewed our data with emphasis on factors that predicted treatment outcome. A total of 48 patients with local failures of NPC were treated by stereotactic radiosurgery between March 1996 and February 2005. Radiosurgery was administered using a modified linear accelerator with single or multiple isocenters to deliver a median dose of 12.5 Gy to the target periphery. Median follow-up was 54 months. Five-year local failure-free probability after radiosurgery was 47.2% and 5-year overall survival rate was 46.9%. Neuroendocrine complications occurred in 27% of patients but there were no treatment-related deaths. Time interval from primary radiotherapy, retreatment T stage, prior local failures and tumor volume were significant predictive factors of local control and/or survival whereas age was of marginal significance in predicting survival. A radiosurgery prognostic scoring system was designed based on these predictive factors. Five-year local failure-free probabilities in patients with good, intermediate and poor prognostic scores were 100%, 42.5%, and 9.6%. The corresponding five-year overall survival rates were 100%, 51.1%, and 0%. Important factors that predicted tumor control and survival after radiosurgery were identified. Patients with good prognostic score should be treated by radiosurgery in view of the excellent results. Patients with intermediate prognostic score may also be treated by radiosurgery but those with poor prognostic score should receive other salvage treatments.

Failure prediction of thin beryllium sheets used in spacecraft structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roschke, Paul N.; Mascorro, Edward; Papados, Photios; Serna, Oscar R.

1991-01-01

The primary objective of this study is to develop a method for prediction of failure of thin beryllium sheets that undergo complex states of stress. Major components of the research include experimental evaluation of strength parameters for cross-rolled beryllium sheet, application of the Tsai-Wu failure criterion to plate bending problems, development of a high order failure criterion, application of the new criterion to a variety of structures, and incorporation of both failure criteria into a finite element code. A Tsai-Wu failure model for SR-200 sheet material is developed from available tensile data, experiments carried out by NASA on two circular plates, and compression and off-axis experiments performed in this study. The failure surface obtained from the resulting criterion forms an ellipsoid. By supplementing experimental data used in the the two-dimensional criterion and modifying previously suggested failure criteria, a multi-dimensional failure surface is proposed for thin beryllium structures. The new criterion for orthotropic material is represented by a failure surface in six-dimensional stress space. In order to determine coefficients of the governing equation, a number of uniaxial, biaxial, and triaxial experiments are required. Details of these experiments and a complementary ultrasonic investigation are described in detail. Finally, validity of the criterion and newly determined mechanical properties is established through experiments on structures composed of SR200 sheet material. These experiments include a plate-plug arrangement under a complex state of stress and a series of plates with an out-of-plane central point load. Both criteria have been incorporated into a general purpose finite element analysis code. Numerical simulation incrementally applied loads to a structural component that is being designed and checks each nodal point in the model for exceedance of a failure criterion. If stresses at all locations do not exceed the failure

Investigating the Impacts of Preoperative Steroid Treatment on Tumor Necrosis Factor-Alpha and Duration of Extubation Time underwent Ventricular Septal Defect Surgery

PubMed Central

Poyrazoğlu, H. Hakan; Duman, Zeynel; Demir, Şerafettin; Avşar, M. Kemal; Atalay, Atakan; Çiftçi, Bahattin; Bayraktar, İhsan; Tor, Funda

2016-01-01

Background: Cardiopulmonary bypass is known to cause inflammatory events. Inflammation occurs due to many known important biological processes. Numerous mechanisms are known to be responsible for the development of inflammatory processes. Currently, there are many defined mediators as a tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) playing an active role in this process. Aims: This research was to investigate the effects of pre-operative steroid use on inflammatory mediator TNF-α and on time to extubation postoperatively in ventricular septal defect patients undergoing cardiopulmonary bypass surgery. Study Design: Controlled clinical study. Methods: This study included 30 patients. These patients were assigned into two groups, each containing 15 patients. 5 micrograms/kg methylprednisolone was injected intravenously 2 hours before the surgery to Group I, whereas there was no application to the patients in Group II. TNF-α (pg/mL) level was measured in arterial blood samples obtained at four periods including: the preoperative period (Pre TNF); at the 5th minute of cross-clamping (Per TNF); 2 hours after termination of cardiopulmonary bypass (Post TNF); and at the postoperative 24th hours in cardiovascular surgery intensive care unit (Post 24 h TNF). Results: The mean cross-clamp time was 66±40 and 55±27 minutes in Group I and Group II respectively. No significant difference was found between the groups in terms of cross-clamp time (p>0.05). The mean time to extubation was 6.1±2.3 hours in Group I and 10.6±3.4 hours in Group II. Group I extubation time was significantly shorter than Group II. Group I TNF-α levels at Post TNF and Post24h TNF was lower than Group II. These differences are also statistically significant (p<0.05). Conclusion: There is a strong indication that preoperative steroid treatment reduced the TNF-α level together with shortens duration of postoperative intubation and positively contributes to extubation in ventricular septal defect patients operated

Prediction of failure in notched carbon-fibre-reinforced-polymer laminates under multi-axial loading.

PubMed

Tan, J L Y; Deshpande, V S; Fleck, N A

2016-07-13

A damage-based finite-element model is used to predict the fracture behaviour of centre-notched quasi-isotropic carbon-fibre-reinforced-polymer laminates under multi-axial loading. Damage within each ply is associated with fibre tension, fibre compression, matrix tension and matrix compression. Inter-ply delamination is modelled by cohesive interfaces using a traction-separation law. Failure envelopes for a notch and a circular hole are predicted for in-plane multi-axial loading and are in good agreement with the observed failure envelopes from a parallel experimental study. The ply-by-ply (and inter-ply) damage evolution and the critical mechanisms of ultimate failure also agree with the observed damage evolution. It is demonstrated that accurate predictions of notched compressive strength are obtained upon employing the band broadening stress for microbuckling, highlighting the importance of this damage mode in compression. This article is part of the themed issue 'Multiscale modelling of the structural integrity of composite materials'. © 2016 The Author(s).

Presenting hydrothorax predicts failure of needle aspiration in primary spontaneous pneumothorax.

PubMed

Wu, Kwok Kei; Lui, Chun Tat; Ho, Chik Leung; Tsui, Kwok Leung; Fung, Hin Tat

2016-06-01

The objective was to evaluate if existence of hydrothorax in initial chest radiograph predicts treatment outcome in patients with primary spontaneous pneumothorax who received needle thoracostomy. This is a retrospective cohort study carried out from January 2011 to August 2014 in 1 public hospital in Hong Kong. All consecutive adult patients aged 18years or above who attended the emergency department with the diagnosis of primary spontaneous pneumothorax with needle aspiration performed as primary treatment were included. Age, smoking status, size of pneumothorax, previous history of pneumothorax, aspirated gas volume and presence of hydropneumothorax in initial radiograph were included in the analysis. The outcome was success or failure of the needle aspiration. Logistic regression was used to identify the predicting factors of failure of needle aspiration. There were a total of 127 patients included. Seventy-three patients (57.5%) were successfully treated with no recurrence upon discharge. Among 54 failure cases, 13 patients (10.2%) failed immediately after procedure as evident by chest radiograph and required second treatment. Forty-one patients (32.3%) failed upon subsequent chest radiographs. Multivariate logistic regression showed factors independently associated with the failure of needle aspiration, which included hydropneumothorax in the initial radiograph (odds ratio [OR]=4.47 [1.56i12.83], P=.005), previous history of pneumothorax (OR=3.92 [1.57-9.79], P=.003), and large size of pneumothorax defined as apex-to-cupola distance ≥5cm (OR=2.75 [1.21-6.26], P=.016). Hydropneumothorax, previous history of pneumothorax, and large size were independent predictors of failure of needle aspiration in treatment of primary spontaneous pneumothorax. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting Quarantine Failure Rates

PubMed Central

2004-01-01

Preemptive quarantine through contact-tracing effectively controls emerging infectious diseases. Occasionally this quarantine fails, however, and infected persons are released. The probability of quarantine failure is typically estimated from disease-specific data. Here a simple, exact estimate of the failure rate is derived that does not depend on disease-specific parameters. This estimate is universally applicable to all infectious diseases. PMID:15109418

Sensitivity, Specificity, Predictive Values, and Accuracy of Three Diagnostic Tests to Predict Inferior Alveolar Nerve Blockade Failure in Symptomatic Irreversible Pulpitis

PubMed Central

Rodríguez-Wong, Laura; Noguera-González, Danny; Esparza-Villalpando, Vicente; Montero-Aguilar, Mauricio

2017-01-01

Introduction The inferior alveolar nerve block (IANB) is the most common anesthetic technique used on mandibular teeth during root canal treatment. Its success in the presence of preoperative inflammation is still controversial. The aim of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and accuracy of three diagnostic tests used to predict IANB failure in symptomatic irreversible pulpitis (SIP). Methodology A cross-sectional study was carried out on the mandibular molars of 53 patients with SIP. All patients received a single cartridge of mepivacaine 2% with 1 : 100000 epinephrine using the IANB technique. Three diagnostic clinical tests were performed to detect anesthetic failure. Anesthetic failure was defined as a positive painful response to any of the three tests. Sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, accuracy, and ROC curves were calculated and compared and significant differences were analyzed. Results IANB failure was determined in 71.7% of the patients. The sensitivity scores for the three tests (lip numbness, the cold stimuli test, and responsiveness during endodontic access) were 0.03, 0.35, and 0.55, respectively, and the specificity score was determined as 1 for all of the tests. Clinically, none of the evaluated tests demonstrated a high enough accuracy (0.30, 0.53, and 0.68 for lip numbness, the cold stimuli test, and responsiveness during endodontic access, resp.). A comparison of the areas under the curve in the ROC analyses showed statistically significant differences between the three tests (p < 0.05). Conclusion None of the analyzed tests demonstrated a high enough accuracy to be considered a reliable diagnostic tool for the prediction of anesthetic failure. PMID:28694714

Increasing body mass index predicts increasing difficulty, failure rate, and time to discovery of failure of epidural anesthesia in laboring patients.

PubMed

Kula, Ayse O; Riess, Matthias L; Ellinas, Elizabeth H

2017-02-01

Obese parturients both greatly benefit from neuraxial techniques, and may represent a technical challenge to obstetric anesthesiologists. Several studies address the topic of obesity and neuraxial analgesia in general, but few offer well described definitions or rates of "difficulty" and "failure" of labor epidural analgesia. Providing those definitions, we hypothesized that increasing body mass index (BMI) is associated with negative outcomes in both categories and increased time needed for epidural placement. Single center retrospective chart review. Labor and Delivery Unit of an inner city academic teaching hospital. 2485 parturients, ASA status 2 to 4, receiving labor epidural analgesia for anticipated vaginal delivery. None. We reviewed quality assurance and anesthesia records over a 12-month period. "Failure" was defined as either inadequate analgesia or a positive test dose, requiring replacement, and/or when the anesthesia record stated they failed. "Difficulty" was defined as six or more needle redirections or a note indicating difficulty in the anesthesia record. Overall epidural failure and difficulty rates were 4.3% and 3.0%, respectively. Patients with a BMI of 30kg/m 2 or higher had a higher chance of both failure and difficulty with two and almost three fold increases, respectively. Regression analysis indicated that failure was best predicted by BMI and less provider training while difficulty was best predicted by BMI. Additionally, increased BMI was associated with increased time of discovery of epidural catheter failure. Obesity is associated with increasing technical difficulty and failure of neuraxial analgesia for labor. Practitioners should consider allotting extra time for obese parturients in order to manage potential problems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Good Models Gone Bad: Quantifying and Predicting Parameter-Induced Climate Model Simulation Failures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucas, D. D.; Klein, R.; Tannahill, J.; Brandon, S.; Covey, C. C.; Domyancic, D.; Ivanova, D. P.

2012-12-01

Simulations using IPCC-class climate models are subject to fail or crash for a variety of reasons. Statistical analysis of the failures can yield useful insights to better understand and improve the models. During the course of uncertainty quantification (UQ) ensemble simulations to assess the effects of ocean model parameter uncertainties on climate simulations, we experienced a series of simulation failures of the Parallel Ocean Program (POP2). About 8.5% of our POP2 runs failed for numerical reasons at certain combinations of parameter values. We apply support vector machine (SVM) classification from the fields of pattern recognition and machine learning to quantify and predict the probability of failure as a function of the values of 18 POP2 parameters. The SVM classifiers readily predict POP2 failures in an independent validation ensemble, and are subsequently used to determine the causes of the failures via a global sensitivity analysis. Four parameters related to ocean mixing and viscosity are identified as the major sources of POP2 failures. Our method can be used to improve the robustness of complex scientific models to parameter perturbations and to better steer UQ ensembles. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344 and was funded by the Uncertainty Quantification Strategic Initiative Laboratory Directed Research and Development Project at LLNL under project tracking code 10-SI-013 (UCRL LLNL-ABS-569112).

Assessment of heart rate, acidosis, consciousness, oxygenation, and respiratory rate to predict noninvasive ventilation failure in hypoxemic patients.

PubMed

Duan, Jun; Han, Xiaoli; Bai, Linfu; Zhou, Lintong; Huang, Shicong

2017-02-01

To develop and validate a scale using variables easily obtained at the bedside for prediction of failure of noninvasive ventilation (NIV) in hypoxemic patients. The test cohort comprised 449 patients with hypoxemia who were receiving NIV. This cohort was used to develop a scale that considers heart rate, acidosis, consciousness, oxygenation, and respiratory rate (referred to as the HACOR scale) to predict NIV failure, defined as need for intubation after NIV intervention. The highest possible score was 25 points. To validate the scale, a separate group of 358 hypoxemic patients were enrolled in the validation cohort. The failure rate of NIV was 47.8 and 39.4% in the test and validation cohorts, respectively. In the test cohort, patients with NIV failure had higher HACOR scores at initiation and after 1, 12, 24, and 48 h of NIV than those with successful NIV. At 1 h of NIV the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.88, showing good predictive power for NIV failure. Using 5 points as the cutoff value, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and diagnostic accuracy for NIV failure were 72.6, 90.2, 87.2, 78.1, and 81.8%, respectively. These results were confirmed in the validation cohort. Moreover, the diagnostic accuracy for NIV failure exceeded 80% in subgroups classified by diagnosis, age, or disease severity and also at 1, 12, 24, and 48 h of NIV. Among patients with NIV failure with a HACOR score of >5 at 1 h of NIV, hospital mortality was lower in those who received intubation at ≤12 h of NIV than in those intubated later [58/88 (66%) vs. 138/175 (79%); p = 0.03). The HACOR scale variables are easily obtained at the bedside. The scale appears to be an effective way of predicting NIV failure in hypoxemic patients. Early intubation in high-risk patients may reduce hospital mortality.

Effort test failure: toward a predictive model.

PubMed

Webb, James W; Batchelor, Jennifer; Meares, Susanne; Taylor, Alan; Marsh, Nigel V

2012-01-01

Predictors of effort test failure were examined in an archival sample of 555 traumatically brain-injured (TBI) adults. Logistic regression models were used to examine whether compensation-seeking, injury-related, psychological, demographic, and cultural factors predicted effort test failure (ETF). ETF was significantly associated with compensation-seeking (OR = 3.51, 95% CI [1.25, 9.79]), low education (OR:. 83 [.74, . 94]), self-reported mood disorder (OR: 5.53 [3.10, 9.85]), exaggerated displays of behavior (OR: 5.84 [2.15, 15.84]), psychotic illness (OR: 12.86 [3.21, 51.44]), being foreign-born (OR: 5.10 [2.35, 11.06]), having sustained a workplace accident (OR: 4.60 [2.40, 8.81]), and mild traumatic brain injury severity compared with very severe traumatic brain injury severity (OR: 0.37 [0.13, 0.995]). ETF was associated with a broader range of statistical predictors than has previously been identified and the relative importance of psychological and behavioral predictors of ETF was evident in the logistic regression model. Variables that might potentially extend the model of ETF are identified for future research efforts.

Prediction of Brittle Failure for TBM Tunnels in Anisotropic Rock: A Case Study from Northern Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dammyr, Øyvind

2016-06-01

Prediction of spalling and rock burst is especially important for hard rock TBM tunneling, because failure can have larger impact than in a drill and blast tunnel and ultimately threaten excavation feasibility. The majority of research on brittle failure has focused on rock types with isotropic behavior. This paper gives a review of existing theory and its application before a 3.5-m-diameter TBM tunnel in foliated granitic gneiss is used as a case to study brittle failure characteristics of anisotropic rock. Important aspects that should be considered in order to predict brittle failure in anisotropic rock are highlighted. Foliation is responsible for considerable strength anisotropy and is believed to influence the preferred side of v-shaped notch development in the investigated tunnel. Prediction methods such as the semi- empirical criterion, the Hoek- Brown brittle parameters, and the non-linear damage initiation and spalling limit method give reliable results; but only as long as the angle between compression axis and foliation in uniaxial compressive tests is relevant, dependent on the relation between tunnel trend/plunge, strike/dip of foliation, and tunnel boundary stresses. It is further demonstrated that local in situ stress variations, for example, due to the presence of discontinuities, can have profound impact on failure predictions. Other carefully documented case studies into the brittle failure nature of rock, in particular anisotropic rock, are encouraged in order to expand the existing and relatively small database. This will be valuable for future TBM planning and construction stages in highly stressed brittle anisotropic rock.

Predicting the failure of retrograde ureteral stent insertion for managing malignant ureteral obstruction in outpatients

PubMed Central

WANG, JIN-YOU; ZHANG, HAI-LIANG; ZHU, YAO; QIN, XIAO-JIAN; DAI, BO; YE, DING-WEI

2016-01-01

Malignant ureteral obstruction (MUO) is an unpropitious sign that is commonly observed in patients with advanced incurable cancer. The present study aimed to evaluate predictive factors for the failure of retrograde ureteral stent insertion in the management of MUO in outpatients. A total of 164 patients with MUO were retrospectively assessed in this study. Clinical factors, including age, gender, type of malignancy, level of obstruction, cause of obstruction, pre-operative creatinine level, degree of hydronephrosis, condition of the contralateral ureter, prior radiotherapy, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG PS), bladder wall invasion and technical failure, were recorded for each case. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to investigate the risk factors for predicting the failure of retrograde ureteral stent insertion. In total, 38 out of 164 patients experienced bilateral obstruction, therefore, a total of 202 ureteral units were available for data analysis. The rate of insertion failure in MUO was 34.65%. Multivariate analyses identified ECOG PS, degree of hydronephrosis and bladder wall invasion as independent predictors for insertion failure. Overall, the present study found that rate of retrograde ureteral stent insertion failure is high in outpatients with MUO, and that ECOG PS, degree of hydronephrosis and bladder invasion are potential independent predictors of insertion failure. PMID:26870299

A standardized model for predicting flap failure using indocyanine green dye

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zimmermann, Terence M.; Moore, Lindsay S.; Warram, Jason M.; Greene, Benjamin J.; Nakhmani, Arie; Korb, Melissa L.; Rosenthal, Eben L.

2016-03-01

Techniques that provide a non-invasive method for evaluation of intraoperative skin flap perfusion are currently available but underutilized. We hypothesize that intraoperative vascular imaging can be used to reliably assess skin flap perfusion and elucidate areas of future necrosis by means of a standardized critical perfusion threshold. Five animal groups (negative controls, n=4; positive controls, n=5; chemotherapy group, n=5; radiation group, n=5; chemoradiation group, n=5) underwent pre-flap treatments two weeks prior to undergoing random pattern dorsal fasciocutaneous flaps with a length to width ratio of 2:1 (3 x 1.5 cm). Flap perfusion was assessed via laser-assisted indocyanine green dye angiography and compared to standard clinical assessment for predictive accuracy of flap necrosis. For estimating flap-failure, clinical prediction achieved a sensitivity of 79.3% and a specificity of 90.5%. When average flap perfusion was more than three standard deviations below the average flap perfusion for the negative control group at the time of the flap procedure (144.3+/-17.05 absolute perfusion units), laser-assisted indocyanine green dye angiography achieved a sensitivity of 81.1% and a specificity of 97.3%. When absolute perfusion units were seven standard deviations below the average flap perfusion for the negative control group, specificity of necrosis prediction was 100%. Quantitative absolute perfusion units can improve specificity for intraoperative prediction of viable tissue. Using this strategy, a positive predictive threshold of flap failure can be standardized for clinical use.

Hybrid neural intelligent system to predict business failure in small-to-medium-size enterprises.

PubMed

Borrajo, M Lourdes; Baruque, Bruno; Corchado, Emilio; Bajo, Javier; Corchado, Juan M

2011-08-01

During the last years there has been a growing need of developing innovative tools that can help small to medium sized enterprises to predict business failure as well as financial crisis. In this study we present a novel hybrid intelligent system aimed at monitoring the modus operandi of the companies and predicting possible failures. This system is implemented by means of a neural-based multi-agent system that models the different actors of the companies as agents. The core of the multi-agent system is a type of agent that incorporates a case-based reasoning system and automates the business control process and failure prediction. The stages of the case-based reasoning system are implemented by means of web services: the retrieval stage uses an innovative weighted voting summarization of self-organizing maps ensembles-based method and the reuse stage is implemented by means of a radial basis function neural network. An initial prototype was developed and the results obtained related to small and medium enterprises in a real scenario are presented.

Study on real-time elevator brake failure predictive system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Jun; Fan, Jinwei

2013-10-01

This paper presented a real-time failure predictive system of the elevator brake. Through inspecting the running state of the coil by a high precision long range laser triangulation non-contact measurement sensor, the displacement curve of the coil is gathered without interfering the original system. By analyzing the displacement data using the diagnostic algorithm, the hidden danger of the brake system can be discovered in time and thus avoid the according accident.

A Predictive Safety Management System Software Package Based on the Continuous Hazard Tracking and Failure Prediction Methodology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quintana, Rolando

2003-01-01

The goal of this research was to integrate a previously validated and reliable safety model, called Continuous Hazard Tracking and Failure Prediction Methodology (CHTFPM), into a software application. This led to the development of a safety management information system (PSMIS). This means that the theory or principles of the CHTFPM were incorporated in a software package; hence, the PSMIS is referred to as CHTFPM management information system (CHTFPM MIS). The purpose of the PSMIS is to reduce the time and manpower required to perform predictive studies as well as to facilitate the handling of enormous quantities of information in this type of studies. The CHTFPM theory encompasses the philosophy of looking at the concept of safety engineering from a new perspective: from a proactive, than a reactive, viewpoint. That is, corrective measures are taken before a problem instead of after it happened. That is why the CHTFPM is a predictive safety because it foresees or anticipates accidents, system failures and unacceptable risks; therefore, corrective action can be taken in order to prevent all these unwanted issues. Consequently, safety and reliability of systems or processes can be further improved by taking proactive and timely corrective actions.

Probability of failure prediction for step-stress fatigue under sine or random stress

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lambert, R. G.

1979-01-01

A previously proposed cumulative fatigue damage law is extended to predict the probability of failure or fatigue life for structural materials with S-N fatigue curves represented as a scatterband of failure points. The proposed law applies to structures subjected to sinusoidal or random stresses and includes the effect of initial crack (i.e., flaw) sizes. The corrected cycle ratio damage function is shown to have physical significance.

Effect and clinical prediction of worsening renal function in acute decompensated heart failure.

PubMed

Breidthardt, Tobias; Socrates, Thenral; Noveanu, Markus; Klima, Theresia; Heinisch, Corinna; Reichlin, Tobias; Potocki, Mihael; Nowak, Albina; Tschung, Christopher; Arenja, Nisha; Bingisser, Roland; Mueller, Christian

2011-03-01

We aimed to establish the prevalence and effect of worsening renal function (WRF) on survival among patients with acute decompensated heart failure. Furthermore, we sought to establish a risk score for the prediction of WRF and externally validate the previously established Forman risk score. A total of 657 consecutive patients with acute decompensated heart failure presenting to the emergency department and undergoing serial creatinine measurements were enrolled. The potential of the clinical parameters at admission to predict WRF was assessed as the primary end point. The secondary end point was all-cause mortality at 360 days. Of the 657 patients, 136 (21%) developed WRF, and 220 patients had died during the first year. WRF was more common in the nonsurvivors (30% vs 41%, p = 0.03). Multivariate regression analysis found WRF to independently predict mortality (hazard ratio 1.92, p <0.01). In a single parameter model, previously diagnosed chronic kidney disease was the only independent predictor of WRF and achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.60. After the inclusion of the blood gas analysis parameters into the model history of chronic kidney disease (hazard ratio 2.13, p = 0.03), outpatient diuretics (hazard ratio 5.75, p <0.01), and bicarbonate (hazard ratio 0.91, p <0.01) were all predictive of WRF. A risk score was developed using these predictors. On receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, the Forman and Basel prediction rules achieved an area under the curve of 0.65 and 0.71, respectively. In conclusion, WRF was common in patients with acute decompensated heart failure and was linked to significantly worse outcomes. However, the clinical parameters failed to adequately predict its occurrence, making a tailored therapy approach impossible. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Tumor Necrosis Factor Inhibitor Primary Failure Predicts Decreased Ustekinumab Efficacy in Psoriasis Patients.

PubMed

Sorensen, Eric P; Fanucci, Kristina A; Saraiya, Ami; Volf, Eva; Au, Shiu-chung; Argobi, Yahya; Mansfield, Ryan; Gottlieb, Alice B

2015-08-01

Additional studies are needed to examine the efficacy of ustekinumab in psoriasis patients who have previously been exposed to tumor necrosis factor inhibitors (TNFi). To examine the predictive effect of TNFi primary failure and the number of TNFi exposures on the efficacy of ustekinumab in psoriasis treatment. This retrospective study examined 44 psoriasis patients treated at the Tufts Medical Center Department of Dermatology between January 2008 and July 2014. Patients were selected if they were treated with ustekinumab and had ≥ 1 previous TNFi exposure. The following subgroups were compared: patients with vs without a previous TNFi primary failure, and patients with one vs multiple previous TNFi exposures. The efficacy measure used was the previously validated Simple Measure for Assessing Psoriasis Activity (S-MAPA), which is calculated by the product of the body surface area and physician global assessment. The primary outcome was the percentage improvement S-MAPA from course baseline at week 12 of ustekinumab treatment. Secondary outcomes were the psoriasis clearance, primary failure, and secondary failure rates with ustekinumab treatment. Patients with a previous TNFi primary failure had a significantly lower percentage improvement in S-MAPA score at week 12 of ustekinumab treatment compared with patients without TNFi primary failure (36.2% vs 61.1%, P=.027). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that this relationship was independent of patient demographics and medical comorbidities. Patients with multiple TNFi exposures had a non-statistically significant lower percentage S-MAPA improvement at week 12 (40.5% vs 52.9%, P=.294) of ustekinumab treatment compared with patients with a single TNFi exposure. Among psoriasis patients previously exposed to TNFi, a history of a previous TNFi primary failure predicts a decreased response to ustekinumab independent of patient demographics and medical comorbidities.

Time prediction of failure a type of lamps by using general composite hazard rate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riaman; Lesmana, E.; Subartini, B.; Supian, S.

2018-03-01

This paper discusses the basic survival model estimates to obtain the average predictive value of lamp failure time. This estimate is for the parametric model, General Composite Hazard Level Model. The random time variable model used is the exponential distribution model, as the basis, which has a constant hazard function. In this case, we discuss an example of survival model estimation for a composite hazard function, using an exponential model as its basis. To estimate this model is done by estimating model parameters, through the construction of survival function and empirical cumulative function. The model obtained, will then be used to predict the average failure time of the model, for the type of lamp. By grouping the data into several intervals and the average value of failure at each interval, then calculate the average failure time of a model based on each interval, the p value obtained from the tes result is 0.3296.

Predicting cancellous bone failure during screw insertion.

PubMed

Reynolds, Karen J; Cleek, Tammy M; Mohtar, Aaron A; Hearn, Trevor C

2013-04-05

Internal fixation of fractures often requires the tightening of bone screws to stabilise fragments. Inadequate application of torque can leave the fracture unstable, while over-tightening results in the stripping of the thread and loss of fixation. The optimal amount of screw torque is specific to each application and in practice is difficult to attain due to the wide variability in bone properties including bone density. The aim of the research presented in this paper is to investigate the relationships between motor torque and screw compression during powered screw insertion, and to evaluate whether the torque during insertion can be used to predict the ultimate failure torque of the bone. A custom test rig was designed and built for bone screw experiments. By inserting cancellous bone screws into synthetic, ovine and human bone specimens, it was established that variations related to bone density could be automatically detected through the effects of the bone on the rotational characteristics of the screw. The torque measured during screw insertion was found to be directly related to bone density and can be used, on its own, as a good predictor of ultimate failure torque of the bone. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Baseline Hemodynamics and Response to Contrast Media During Diagnostic Cardiac Catheterization Predict Adverse Events in Heart Failure Patients.

PubMed

Denardo, Scott J; Vock, David M; Schmalfuss, Carsten M; Young, Gregory D; Tcheng, James E; O'Connor, Christopher M

2016-07-01

Contrast media administered during cardiac catheterization can affect hemodynamic variables. However, little is documented about the effects of contrast on hemodynamics in heart failure patients or the prognostic value of baseline and changes in hemodynamics for predicting subsequent adverse events. In this prospective study of 150 heart failure patients, we measured hemodynamics at baseline and after administration of iodixanol or iopamidol contrast. One-year Kaplan-Meier estimates of adverse event-free survival (death, heart failure hospitalization, and rehospitalization) were generated, grouping patients by baseline measures of pulmonary capillary wedge pressure (PCWP) and cardiac index (CI), and by changes in those measures after contrast administration. We used Cox proportional hazards modeling to assess sequentially adding baseline PCWP and change in CI to 5 validated risk models (Seattle Heart Failure Score, ESCAPE [Evaluation Study of Congestive Heart Failure and Pulmonary Artery Catheterization Effectiveness], CHARM [Candesartan in Heart Failure: Assessment of Reduction in Mortality and Morbidity], CORONA [Controlled Rosuvastatin Multinational Trial in Heart Failure], and MAGGIC [Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure]). Median contrast volume was 109 mL. Both contrast media caused similarly small but statistically significant changes in most hemodynamic variables. There were 39 adverse events (26.0%). Adverse event rates increased using the composite metric of baseline PCWP and change in CI (P<0.01); elevated baseline PCWP and decreased CI after contrast correlated with the poorest prognosis. Adding both baseline PCWP and change in CI to the 5 risk models universally improved their predictive value (P≤0.02). In heart failure patients, the administration of contrast causes small but significant changes in hemodynamics. Calculating baseline PCWP with change in CI after contrast predicts adverse events and increases the predictive value of

Predicting device failure after percutaneous repair of functional mitral regurgitation in advanced heart failure: Implications for patient selection.

PubMed

Stolfo, Davide; De Luca, Antonio; Morea, Gaetano; Merlo, Marco; Vitrella, Giancarlo; Caiffa, Thomas; Barbati, Giulia; Rakar, Serena; Korcova, Renata; Perkan, Andrea; Pinamonti, Bruno; Pappalardo, Aniello; Berardini, Alessandra; Biagini, Elena; Saia, Francesco; Grigioni, Francesco; Rapezzi, Claudio; Sinagra, Gianfranco

2018-04-15

Patients with heart failure (HF) and severe symptomatic functional mitral regurgitation (FMR) may benefit from MitraClip implantation. With increasing numbers of patients being treated the success of procedure becomes a key issue. We sought to investigate the pre-procedural predictors of device failure in patients with advanced HF treated with MitraClip. From April 2012 to November 2016, 76 patients with poor functional class (NYHA class III-IV) and severe left ventricular (LV) remodeling underwent MitraClip implantation at University Hospitals of Trieste and Bologna (Italy). Device failure was assessed according to MVARC criteria. Patients were subsequently followed to additionally assess the patient success after 12months. Mean age was 67±12years, the mean Log-EuroSCORE was 23.4±16.5%, and the mean LV end-diastolic volume index and ejection fraction (EF) were 112±33ml/m 2 and 30.6±8.9%, respectively. At short-term evaluation, device failure was observed in 22 (29%) patients. Univariate predictors of device failure were LVEF, LV and left atrial volumes and anteroposterior mitral annulus diameter. Annulus dimension (OR 1.153, 95% CI 1.002-1.327, p=0.043) and LV end-diastolic volume (OR 1.024, 95% CI 1.000-1.049, p=0.049) were the only variables independently associated with the risk of device failure at the multivariate model. Pre-procedural anteroposterior mitral annulus diameter accurately predicted the risk of device failure after MitraClip in the setting of advanced HF. Its assessment might aid the selection of the best candidates to percutaneous correction of FMR. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

GenSo-EWS: a novel neural-fuzzy based early warning system for predicting bank failures.

PubMed

Tung, W L; Quek, C; Cheng, P

2004-05-01

Bank failure prediction is an important issue for the regulators of the banking industries. The collapse and failure of a bank could trigger an adverse financial repercussion and generate negative impacts such as a massive bail out cost for the failing bank and loss of confidence from the investors and depositors. Very often, bank failures are due to financial distress. Hence, it is desirable to have an early warning system (EWS) that identifies potential bank failure or high-risk banks through the traits of financial distress. Various traditional statistical models have been employed to study bank failures [J Finance 1 (1975) 21; J Banking Finance 1 (1977) 249; J Banking Finance 10 (1986) 511; J Banking Finance 19 (1995) 1073]. However, these models do not have the capability to identify the characteristics of financial distress and thus function as black boxes. This paper proposes the use of a new neural fuzzy system [Foundations of neuro-fuzzy systems, 1997], namely the Generic Self-organising Fuzzy Neural Network (GenSoFNN) [IEEE Trans Neural Networks 13 (2002c) 1075] based on the compositional rule of inference (CRI) [Commun ACM 37 (1975) 77], as an alternative to predict banking failure. The CRI based GenSoFNN neural fuzzy network, henceforth denoted as GenSoFNN-CRI(S), functions as an EWS and is able to identify the inherent traits of financial distress based on financial covariates (features) derived from publicly available financial statements. The interaction between the selected features is captured in the form of highly intuitive IF-THEN fuzzy rules. Such easily comprehensible rules provide insights into the possible characteristics of financial distress and form the knowledge base for a highly desired EWS that aids bank regulation. The performance of the GenSoFNN-CRI(S) network is subsequently benchmarked against that of the Cox's proportional hazards model [J Banking Finance 10 (1986) 511; J Banking Finance 19 (1995) 1073], the multi

Effect of Anatomical and Developmental Factors on the Risk of Unplanned Extubation in Critically Ill Newborns

PubMed Central

Hatch, L. Dupree; Grubb, Peter H.; Markham, Melinda H.; Scott, Theresa A.; Walsh, William F.; Slaughter, James C.; Stark, Ann R.; Ely, E. Wesley

2017-01-01

Objective To quantify the daily risk of unplanned extubation (UE) in newborns based on developmental and anatomical factors. Methods Prospective cohort of ventilated newborns over an 18-month period in a level IV neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). We captured UEs through four data streams. We generated multivariable logistic regression models to assess the association of UE with chronological age, birth weight, and postmenstrual age. Results During the study, 718 infants were ventilated for 5,611 patient days with 117 UEs in 81 infants. The daily risk of UE had a significant, nonlinear relationship (p < 0.01) with chronological age, decreasing until day 7 (odds ratio [OR]: 0.5; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.17–1.47) and increasing after day 7 (day 7–28, OR: 1.36, 95% CI: 1.06–1.75; and >28 days, OR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.0–1.14). Birth weight and postmenstrual age were not associated with UE. Adverse events occurred in 83/117 (71%) UE events. Iatrogenic causes of UE were more common in younger, smaller infants, whereas older, larger infants were more likely to self-extubate. Conclusion The daily risk and causes of UE change over the course of an infant’s NICU hospitalization. These data can be used to identify infants at the highest risk of UE for whom targeted proactive interventions can be developed. PMID:28494497

[A case report of the laryngeal edema and peripheral cyanosis after extubation of the tracheal tube].

PubMed

Itatani, Keiichi; Nishiyama, Tomoki; Hanaoka, Kazuo

2003-08-01

A 65-year-old male in malnutrition due to advanced colon cancer underwent resection of transverse colon tumor and the invaded abdominal muscles with necrosis and abscess. After epidural catheter insertion between Th 10-11 for 9 cm cephalad, anesthesia was induced with thiopental 200 mg and fentanyl 50 micrograms. Tracheal intubation was done with vecuronium 5 mg, and anesthesia was maintained with sevoflurane with nitrous oxide in oxygen and epidural block. During surgery, systolic blood pressure often went up to 130 to 140 mmHg and down to 50 to 60 mmHg. Dopamine 3-5 micrograms.kg-1.min-1 was administered but occasional ephedrine bolus injection was still necessary. The intestine, including the intact part, was edematous. After the surgery, when systolic blood pressure was stable at about 130 mmHg and his consciousness was clear with regular spontaneous respiration, the tracheal tube was removed. However, soon after the extubation, expiratory stridor and cyanosis of the bilateral hands and feet were observed. Hydrocortisone 200 mg and nicardipine 0.5 mg were administered and room temperature was raised. About 30 minutes later, stridor and cyanosis subsided. In the ward after surgery, only hoarseness was observed. The stridor might have been due to the laryngeal edema, which could be attributed to stimulation by tracheal tube in the patient with malnutrition. The hemodynamic instability during surgery and cyanosis after extubation might have come from changes of the vascular resistance by sepsis.

Echocardiography and risk prediction in advanced heart failure: incremental value over clinical markers.

PubMed

Agha, Syed A; Kalogeropoulos, Andreas P; Shih, Jeffrey; Georgiopoulou, Vasiliki V; Giamouzis, Grigorios; Anarado, Perry; Mangalat, Deepa; Hussain, Imad; Book, Wendy; Laskar, Sonjoy; Smith, Andrew L; Martin, Randolph; Butler, Javed

2009-09-01

Incremental value of echocardiography over clinical parameters for outcome prediction in advanced heart failure (HF) is not well established. We evaluated 223 patients with advanced HF receiving optimal therapy (91.9% angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin receptor blocker, 92.8% beta-blockers, 71.8% biventricular pacemaker, and/or defibrillator use). The Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) was used as the reference clinical risk prediction scheme. The incremental value of echocardiographic parameters for event prediction (death or urgent heart transplantation) was measured by the improvement in fit and discrimination achieved by addition of standard echocardiographic parameters to the SHFM. After a median follow-up of 2.4 years, there were 38 (17.0%) events (35 deaths; 3 urgent transplants). The SHFM had likelihood ratio (LR) chi(2) 32.0 and C statistic 0.756 for event prediction. Left ventricular end-systolic volume, stroke volume, and severe tricuspid regurgitation were independent echocardiographic predictors of events. The addition of these parameters to SHFM improved LR chi(2) to 72.0 and C statistic to 0.866 (P < .001 and P=.019, respectively). Reclassifying the SHFM-predicted risk with use of the echocardiography-added model resulted in improved prognostic separation. Addition of standard echocardiographic variables to the SHFM results in significant improvement in risk prediction for patients with advanced HF.

Predicting remaining life by fusing the physics of failure modeling with diagnostics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kacprzynski, G. J.; Sarlashkar, A.; Roemer, M. J.; Hess, A.; Hardman, B.

2004-03-01

Technology that enables failure prediction of critical machine components (prognostics) has the potential to significantly reduce maintenance costs and increase availability and safety. This article summarizes a research effort funded through the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency and Naval Air System Command aimed at enhancing prognostic accuracy through more advanced physics-of-failure modeling and intelligent utilization of relevant diagnostic information. H-60 helicopter gear is used as a case study to introduce both stochastic sub-zone crack initiation and three-dimensional fracture mechanics lifing models along with adaptive model updating techniques for tuning key failure mode variables at a local material/damage site based on fused vibration features. The overall prognostic scheme is aimed at minimizing inherent modeling and operational uncertainties via sensed system measurements that evolve as damage progresses.

Is it beneficial to approximate pre-failure topography to predict landslide susceptibility with empirical models?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steger, Stefan; Schmaltz, Elmar; Glade, Thomas

2017-04-01

Empirical landslide susceptibility maps spatially depict the areas where future slope failures are likely due to specific environmental conditions. The underlying statistical models are based on the assumption that future landsliding is likely to occur under similar circumstances (e.g. topographic conditions, lithology, land cover) as past slope failures. This principle is operationalized by applying a supervised classification approach (e.g. a regression model with a binary response: landslide presence/absence) that enables discrimination between conditions that favored past landslide occurrences and the circumstances typical for landslide absences. The derived empirical relation is then transferred to each spatial unit of an area. Literature reveals that the specific topographic conditions representative for landslide presences are frequently extracted from derivatives of digital terrain models at locations were past landslides were mapped. The underlying morphology-based landslide identification becomes possible due to the fact that the topography at a specific locality usually changes after landslide occurrence (e.g. hummocky surface, concave and steep scarp). In a strict sense, this implies that topographic predictors used within conventional statistical landslide susceptibility models relate to post-failure topographic conditions - and not to the required pre-failure situation. This study examines the assumption that models calibrated on the basis of post-failure topographies may not be appropriate to predict future landslide locations, because (i) post-failure and pre-failure topographic conditions may differ and (ii) areas were future landslides will occur do not yet exhibit such a distinct post-failure morphology. The study was conducted for an area located in the Walgau region (Vorarlberg, western Austria), where a detailed inventory consisting of shallow landslides was available. The methodology comprised multiple systematic comparisons of models

Aberrant GSTP1 promoter methylation predicts short-term prognosis in acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure.

PubMed

Gao, S; Sun, F-K; Fan, Y-C; Shi, C-H; Zhang, Z-H; Wang, L-Y; Wang, K

2015-08-01

Glutathione-S-transferase P1 (GSTP1) methylation has been demonstrated to be associated with oxidative stress induced liver damage in acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF). To evaluate the methylation level of GSTP1 promoter in acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure and determine its predictive value for prognosis. One hundred and five patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure, 86 with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and 30 healthy controls (HC) were retrospectively enrolled. GSTP1 methylation level in peripheral mononuclear cells (PBMC) was detected by MethyLight. Clinical and laboratory parameters were obtained. GSTP1 methylation levels were significantly higher in patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (median 16.84%, interquartile range 1.83-59.05%) than those with CHB (median 1.25%, interquartile range 0.48-2.47%; P < 0.01) and HC (median 0.80%, interquartile range 0.67-1.27%; P < 0.01). In acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure group, nonsurvivors showed significantly higher GSTP1 methylation levels (P < 0.05) than survivors. GSTP1 methylation level was significantly correlated with total bilirubin (r = 0.29, P < 0.01), prothrombin time activity (r = -0.24, P = 0.01) and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score (r = 0.26, P = 0.01). When used to predict 1- or 2-month mortality of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure, GSTP1 methylation showed significantly better predictive value than MELD score [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) 0.89 vs. 0.72, P < 0.01; AUC 0.83 vs. 0.70, P < 0.05 respectively]. Meanwhile, patients with GSTP1 methylation levels above the cut-off points showed significantly poorer survival than those below (P < 0.05). Aberrant GSTP1 promoter methylation exists in acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure and shows high predictive value for short-term mortality. It might serve as a potential prognostic marker for acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure

Anterior delayed gadolinium-enhanced MRI of cartilage values predict joint failure after periacetabular osteotomy.

PubMed

Kim, Sang Do; Jessel, Rebecca; Zurakowski, David; Millis, Michael B; Kim, Young-Jo

2012-12-01

Several available compositional MRIs seem to detect early osteoarthritis before radiographic appearance. Delayed gadolinium-enhanced MRI of cartilage (dGEMRIC) has been most frequently used in clinical studies and reportedly predicts premature joint failure in patients undergoing Bernese periacetabular osteotomies (PAOs). We asked, given regional variations in biochemical composition in dysplastic hips, whether the dGEMRIC index of the anterior joint would better predict premature joint failure after PAOs than the coronal dGEMRIC index as previously reported. We retrospectively reviewed 43 hips in 41 patients who underwent Bernese PAO for hip dysplasia. Thirty-seven hips had preserved joints after PAOs and six were deemed premature failures based on pain, joint space narrowing, or subsequent THA. We used dGEMRIC to determine regional variations in biochemical composition. Preoperative demographic and clinical outcome score, radiographic measures of osteoarthritis and severity of dysplasia, and dGEMRIC indexes from different hip regions were analyzed in a multivariable regression analysis to determine the best predictor of premature joint failure. Minimum followup was 24 months (mean, 32 months; range, 24-46 months). The two cohorts were similar in age and sex distribution. Severity of dysplasia was similar as measured by lateral center-edge, anterior center-edge, and Tönnis angles. Preoperative pain, joint space width, Tönnis grade, and coronal and sagittal dGEMRIC indexes differed between groups. The dGEMRIC index in the anterior weightbearing region of the hip was lower in the prematurely failed group and was the best predictor. Success of PAO depends on the amount of preoperative osteoarthritis. These degenerative changes are seen most commonly in the anterior joint. The dGEMRIC index of the anterior joint may better predict premature joint failure than radiographic measures of hip osteoarthritis and coronal dGEMRIC index. Level II, prognostic study. See

Usefulness of radiological signs of pulmonary congestion in predicting failed spontaneous breathing trials

PubMed Central

Antonio, Ana Carolina Peçanha; Teixeira, Cassiano; Castro, Priscylla Souza; Zanardo, Ana Paula; Gazzana, Marcelo Basso; Knorst, Marli

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Objective: Inspiratory fall in intrathoracic pressure during a spontaneous breathing trial (SBT) may precipitate cardiac dysfunction and acute pulmonary edema. We aimed to determine the relationship between radiological signs of pulmonary congestion prior to an SBT and weaning outcomes. Methods: This was a post hoc analysis of a prospective cohort study involving patients in an adult medical-surgical ICU. All enrolled individuals met the eligibility criteria for liberation from mechanical ventilation. Tracheostomized subjects were excluded. The primary endpoint was SBT failure, defined as the inability to tolerate a T-piece trial for 30-120 min. An attending radiologist applied a radiological score on interpretation of digital chest X-rays performed before the SBT. Results: A total of 170 T-piece trials were carried out; SBT failure occurred in 28 trials (16.4%), and 133 subjects (78.3%) were extubated at first attempt. Radiological scores were similar between SBT-failure and SBT-success groups (median [interquartile range] = 3 [2-4] points vs. 3 [2-4] points; p = 0.15), which, according to the score criteria, represented interstitial lung congestion. The analysis of ROC curves demonstrated poor accuracy (area under the curve = 0.58) of chest x-rays findings of congestion prior to the SBT for discriminating between SBT failure and SBT success. No correlation was found between fluid balance in the 48 h preceding the SBT and radiological score results (ρ = −0.13). Conclusions: Radiological findings of pulmonary congestion should not delay SBT indication, given that they did not predict weaning failure in the medical-surgical critically ill population. (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02022839 [http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/]) PMID:29364998

Predicting Renal Failure Progression in Chronic Kidney Disease Using Integrated Intelligent Fuzzy Expert System.

PubMed

Norouzi, Jamshid; Yadollahpour, Ali; Mirbagheri, Seyed Ahmad; Mazdeh, Mitra Mahdavi; Hosseini, Seyed Ahmad

2016-01-01

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a covert disease. Accurate prediction of CKD progression over time is necessary for reducing its costs and mortality rates. The present study proposes an adaptive neurofuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for predicting the renal failure timeframe of CKD based on real clinical data. This study used 10-year clinical records of newly diagnosed CKD patients. The threshold value of 15 cc/kg/min/1.73 m(2) of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) was used as the marker of renal failure. A Takagi-Sugeno type ANFIS model was used to predict GFR values. Variables of age, sex, weight, underlying diseases, diastolic blood pressure, creatinine, calcium, phosphorus, uric acid, and GFR were initially selected for the predicting model. Weight, diastolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus as underlying disease, and current GFR(t) showed significant correlation with GFRs and were selected as the inputs of model. The comparisons of the predicted values with the real data showed that the ANFIS model could accurately estimate GFR variations in all sequential periods (Normalized Mean Absolute Error lower than 5%). Despite the high uncertainties of human body and dynamic nature of CKD progression, our model can accurately predict the GFR variations at long future periods.

Transvaginal ultrasonographic cervical measurement in predicting failed labor induction and cesarean delivery for failure to progress in nulliparous women.

PubMed

Park, Kyo Hoon

2007-08-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the value of transvaginal sonographic cervical measurement in predicting failed labor induction and cesarean delivery for failure to progress in nulliparous women. One hundred and sixty-one women scheduled for labor induction underwent transvaginal ultrasonography and digital cervical examinations. Logistic regression demonstrated that cervical length and gestational age at induction, but not the Bishop score, significantly and independently predicted failed labor induction. According to the receiver operating characteristic curves analysis, the best cut-off value of cervical length for predicting failed labor induction was 28 mm, with a sensitivity of 62% and a specificity of 60%. In terms of the likelihood of a cesarean delivery for failure to progress as the outcome variable, logistic regression indicated that maternal height and birth weight, but not cervical length or Bishop score, were significantly and independently associated with an increased risk of cesarean delivery for failure to progress. Transvaginal sonographic measurements of cervical length thus independently predicted failed labor induction in nulliparous women. However, the relatively poor predictive performance of this test undermines its clinical usefulness as a predictor of failed labor induction. Moreover, cervical length appears to have a poor predictive value for the likelihood of a cesarean delivery for failure to progress.

A Novel MiRNA-Based Predictive Model for Biochemical Failure Following Post-Prostatectomy Salvage Radiation Therapy

PubMed Central

Stegmaier, Petra; Drendel, Vanessa; Mo, Xiaokui; Ling, Stella; Fabian, Denise; Manring, Isabel; Jilg, Cordula A.; Schultze-Seemann, Wolfgang; McNulty, Maureen; Zynger, Debra L.; Martin, Douglas; White, Julia; Werner, Martin; Grosu, Anca L.; Chakravarti, Arnab

2015-01-01

Purpose To develop a microRNA (miRNA)-based predictive model for prostate cancer patients of 1) time to biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy and 2) biochemical recurrence after salvage radiation therapy following documented biochemical disease progression post-radical prostatectomy. Methods Forty three patients who had undergone salvage radiation therapy following biochemical failure after radical prostatectomy with greater than 4 years of follow-up data were identified. Formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue blocks were collected for all patients and total RNA was isolated from 1mm cores enriched for tumor (>70%). Eight hundred miRNAs were analyzed simultaneously using the nCounter human miRNA v2 assay (NanoString Technologies; Seattle, WA). Univariate and multivariate Cox proportion hazards regression models as well as receiver operating characteristics were used to identify statistically significant miRNAs that were predictive of biochemical recurrence. Results Eighty eight miRNAs were identified to be significantly (p<0.05) associated with biochemical failure post-prostatectomy by multivariate analysis and clustered into two groups that correlated with early (≤ 36 months) versus late recurrence (>36 months). Nine miRNAs were identified to be significantly (p<0.05) associated by multivariate analysis with biochemical failure after salvage radiation therapy. A new predictive model for biochemical recurrence after salvage radiation therapy was developed; this model consisted of miR-4516 and miR-601 together with, Gleason score, and lymph node status. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was improved to 0.83 compared to that of 0.66 for Gleason score and lymph node status alone. Conclusion miRNA signatures can distinguish patients who fail soon after radical prostatectomy versus late failures, giving insight into which patients may need adjuvant therapy. Notably, two novel miRNAs (miR-4516 and miR-601) were identified that significantly improve

Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hatfield, Glen S.; Hark, Frank; Stott, James

2016-01-01

Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account risks attributable to manufacturing, assembly, and process controls. These sources often dominate component level reliability or risk of failure probability. While consequences of failure is often understood in assessing risk, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence will likely underestimate the risk. Managers and decision makers often use the probability of occurrence in determining whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. Due to the absence of system level test and operational data inherent in aerospace applications, the actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be appropriately characterized for decision making purposes. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

Simple Predictive Model of Early Failure among Patients Undergoing First-Time Arteriovenous Fistula Creation.

PubMed

Eslami, Mohammad H; Zhu, Clara K; Rybin, Denis; Doros, Gheorghe; Siracuse, Jeffrey J; Farber, Alik

2016-08-01

Native arteriovenous fistulas (AVFs) have a high 1 year failure rate leading to a need for secondary procedures. We set out to create a predictive model of early failure in patients undergoing first-time AVF creation, to identify failure-associated factors and stratify initial failure risk. The Vascular Study Group of New England (VSGNE) (2010-2014) was queried to identify patients undergoing first-time AVF creation. Patients with early (within 3 months postoperation) AVF failure (EF) or no failure (NF) were compared, failure being defined as any AVF that could not be used for dialysis. A multivariate logistic regression predictive model of EF based on perioperative clinical variables was created. Backward elimination with alpha level of 0.2 was used to create a parsimonious model. We identified 376 first-time AVF patients with follow-up data available in VSGNE. EF rate was 17.5%. Patients in the EF group had lower rates of hypertension (80.3% vs. 93.2%, P = 0.003) and diabetes (47.0% vs. 61.3%, P = 0.039). EF patients were also more likely to have radial artery inflow (57.6% vs. 38.4%, P = 0.011) and have forearm cephalic vein outflow (57.6% vs. 36.5%, P = 0.008). Additionally, the EF group was noted to have significantly smaller mean diameters of target artery (3.1 ± 0.9 vs. 3.6 ± 1.1, P = 0.002) and vein (3.1 ± 0.7 vs. 3.6 ± 0.9, P < 0.001). Multivariate analyses revealed that hypertension, diabetes, and vein larger than 3 mm were protective of EF (P < 0.05). The discriminating ability of this model was good (C-statistic = 0.731) and the model fits the data well (Hosmer-Lemeshow P = 0.149). β-estimates of significant factors were used to create a point system and assign probabilities of EF. We developed a simple model that robustly predicts first-time AVF EF and suggests that anatomical and clinical factors directly affect early AVF outcomes. The risk score has the potential to be used in clinical settings to stratify risk and make

Factors contributing to the failure of Humidified High-Flow Nasal Cannulae.

PubMed

Teoh, Sophia; Clyde, Elizabeth; Dassios, Theodore; Greenough, Anne

2018-05-24

The use of humidified high-flow nasal cannulae (HHFNC) as an alternative mode of non-invasive ventilation (NIV) in neonates has become widespread. A survey of UK neonatal units showed the proportion using HHFNC had increased from 56% in 2012 to 87% in 2015 (1). A recently reported Cochrane Review (2) comparing the use of HHFNC against other NIV modes of ventilation immediately after birth or following extubation showed no significant difference in the rates of bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) or death and no significant difference in the rates of treatment failure/reintubation. Benefits cited include a significantly reduced risk of nasal trauma as compared to continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP). Furthermore, both medical staff and parents (3) were found to prefer HHFNC to CPAP. Identification of infants in whom use of HHFNC as either a primary or step-down mode of respiratory support may be inappropriate might further reduce the failure rate of HHFNC. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Higher levels of salivary alpha-amylase predict failure of cessation efforts in male smokers.

PubMed

Dušková, M; Simůnková, K; Hill, M; Hruškovičová, H; Hoskovcová, P; Králíková, E; Stárka, L

2010-01-01

The ability to predict the success or failure of smoking cessation efforts will be useful for clinical practice. Stress response is regulated by two primary neuroendocrine systems. Salivary cortisol has been used as a marker for the hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenocortical axis and salivary alpha-amylase as a marker for the sympathetic adrenomedullary system. We studied 62 chronic smokers (34 women and 28 men with an average age of 45.2+/-12.9 years). The levels of salivary cortisol and salivary alpha-amylase were measured during the period of active smoking, and 6 weeks and 24 weeks after quitting. We analyzed the men separately from the women. The men who were unsuccessful in cessation showed significantly higher levels of salivary alpha-amylase over the entire course of the cessation attempt. Before stopping smoking, salivary cortisol levels were higher among the men who were unsuccessful in smoking cessation. After quitting, there were no differences between this group and the men who were successful in cessation. In women we found no differences between groups of successful and unsuccessful ex-smokers during cessation. In conclusions, increased levels of salivary alpha-amylase before and during smoking cessation may predict failure to quit in men. On the other hand, no advantage was found in predicting the failure to quit in women. The results of our study support previously described gender differences in smoking cessation.

Predictions of High Strain Rate Failure Modes in Layered Aluminum Composites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khanikar, Prasenjit; Zikry, M. A.

2014-01-01

A dislocation density-based crystalline plasticity formulation, specialized finite-element techniques, and rational crystallographic orientation relations were used to predict and characterize the failure modes associated with the high strain rate behavior of aluminum layered composites. Two alloy layers, a high strength alloy, aluminum 2195, and an aluminum alloy 2139, with high toughness, were modeled with representative microstructures that included precipitates, dispersed particles, and different grain boundary distributions. Different layer arrangements were investigated for high strain rate applications and the optimal arrangement was with the high toughness 2139 layer on the bottom, which provided extensive shear strain localization, and the high strength 2195 layer on the top for high strength resistance The layer thickness of the bottom high toughness layer also affected the bending behavior of the roll-bonded interface and the potential delamination of the layers. Shear strain localization, dynamic cracking, and delamination are the mutually competing failure mechanisms for the layered metallic composite, and control of these failure modes can be used to optimize behavior for high strain rate applications.

Rational temporal predictions can underlie apparent failures to delay gratification.

PubMed

McGuire, Joseph T; Kable, Joseph W

2013-04-01

An important category of seemingly maladaptive decisions involves failure to postpone gratification. A person pursuing a desirable long-run outcome may abandon it in favor of a short-run alternative that has been available all along. Here we present a theoretical framework in which this seemingly irrational behavior emerges from stable preferences and veridical judgments. Our account recognizes that decision makers generally face uncertainty regarding the time at which future outcomes will materialize. When timing is uncertain, the value of persistence depends crucially on the nature of a decision maker's prior temporal beliefs. Certain forms of temporal beliefs imply that a delay's predicted remaining length increases as a function of time already waited. In this type of situation, the rational, utility-maximizing strategy is to persist for a limited amount of time and then give up. We show empirically that people's explicit predictions of remaining delay lengths indeed increase as a function of elapsed time in several relevant domains, implying that temporal judgments offer a rational basis for limiting persistence. We then develop our framework into a simple working model and show how it accounts for individual differences in a laboratory task (the well-known "marshmallow test"). We conclude that delay-of-gratification failure, generally viewed as a manifestation of limited self-control capacity, can instead arise as an adaptive response to the perceived statistics of one's environment.

Two-Step Screening for Depressive Symptoms and Prediction of Mortality in Patients With Heart Failure.

PubMed

Lee, Kyoung Suk; Moser, Debra K; Pelter, Michele; Biddle, Martha J; Dracup, Kathleen

2017-05-01

Comorbid depression in patients with heart failure is associated with increased risk for death. In order to effectively identify depressed patients with cardiac disease, the American Heart Association suggests a 2-step screening method: administering the 2-item Patient Health Questionnaire first and then the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire. However, whether the 2-step method is better for predicting poor prognosis in heart failure than is either the 2-item or the 9-item tool alone is not known. To determine whether the 2-step method is better than either the 2-item or the 9-item questionnaire alone for predicting all-cause mortality in heart failure. During a 2-year period, 562 patients with heart failure were assessed for depression by using the 2-step method. With the 2-step method, results are considered positive if patients endorse either depressed mood or anhedonia on the 2-item screen and have scores of 10 or higher on the 9-item screen. Screening results with the 2-step method were not associated with all-cause mortality. Patients with scores positive for depression on either the 2-item or 9-item screen alone had 53% and 60% greater risk, respectively, for all-cause death than did patients with scores negative for depression after adjustments for covariates (hazard ratio, 1.530; 95% CI, 1.029-2.274 for the 2-item screen; hazard ratio, 1.603; 95% CI, 1.079-2.383 for the 9-item screen). The 2-step method has no clear advantages compared with the 2-item screen alone or the 9-item screen alone for predicting adverse prognostic effects of depressive symptoms in heart failure. ©2017 American Association of Critical-Care Nurses.

Multiple Fatigue Failure Behaviors and Long-Life Prediction Approach of Carburized Cr-Ni Steel with Variable Stress Ratio

PubMed Central

Deng, Hailong; Li, Wei; Zhao, Hongqiao; Sakai, Tatsuo

2017-01-01

Axial loading tests with stress ratios R of −1, 0 and 0.3 were performed to examine the fatigue failure behavior of a carburized Cr-Ni steel in the long-life regime from 104 to 108 cycles. Results show that this steel represents continuously descending S-N characteristics with interior inclusion-induced failure under R = −1, whereas it shows duplex S-N characteristics with surface defect-induced failure and interior inclusion-induced failure under R = 0 and 0.3. The increasing tension eliminates the effect of compressive residual stress and promotes crack initiation from the surface or interior defects in the carburized layer. The FGA (fine granular area) formation greatly depends on the number of loading cycles, but can be inhibited by decreasing the compressive stress. Based on the evaluation of the stress intensity factor at the crack tip, the surface and interior failures in the short life regime can be characterized by the crack growth process, while the interior failure with the FGA in the long life regime can be characterized by the crack initiation process. In view of the good agreement between predicted and experimental results, the proposed approach can be well utilized to predict fatigue lives associated with interior inclusion-FGA-fisheye induced failure, interior inclusion-fisheye induced failure, and surface defect induced failure. PMID:28906454

Distant failure prediction for early stage NSCLC by analyzing PET with sparse representation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Hongxia; Zhou, Zhiguo; Wang, Jing

2017-03-01

Positron emission tomography (PET) imaging has been widely explored for treatment outcome prediction. Radiomicsdriven methods provide a new insight to quantitatively explore underlying information from PET images. However, it is still a challenging problem to automatically extract clinically meaningful features for prognosis. In this work, we develop a PET-guided distant failure predictive model for early stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients after stereotactic ablative radiotherapy (SABR) by using sparse representation. The proposed method does not need precalculated features and can learn intrinsically distinctive features contributing to classification of patients with distant failure. The proposed framework includes two main parts: 1) intra-tumor heterogeneity description; and 2) dictionary pair learning based sparse representation. Tumor heterogeneity is initially captured through anisotropic kernel and represented as a set of concatenated vectors, which forms the sample gallery. Then, given a test tumor image, its identity (i.e., distant failure or not) is classified by applying the dictionary pair learning based sparse representation. We evaluate the proposed approach on 48 NSCLC patients treated by SABR at our institute. Experimental results show that the proposed approach can achieve an area under the characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.70 with a sensitivity of 69.87% and a specificity of 69.51% using a five-fold cross validation.

Accuracy of circulating histones in predicting persistent organ failure and mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis.

PubMed

Liu, T; Huang, W; Szatmary, P; Abrams, S T; Alhamdi, Y; Lin, Z; Greenhalf, W; Wang, G; Sutton, R; Toh, C H

2017-08-01

Early prediction of acute pancreatitis severity remains a challenge. Circulating levels of histones are raised early in mouse models and correlate with disease severity. It was hypothesized that circulating histones predict persistent organ failure in patients with acute pancreatitis. Consecutive patients with acute pancreatitis fulfilling inclusion criteria admitted to Royal Liverpool University Hospital were enrolled prospectively between June 2010 and March 2014. Blood samples were obtained within 48 h of abdominal pain onset and relevant clinical data during the hospital stay were collected. Healthy volunteers were enrolled as controls. The primary endpoint was occurrence of persistent organ failure. The predictive values of circulating histones, clinical scores and other biomarkers were determined. Among 236 patients with acute pancreatitis, there were 156 (66·1 per cent), 57 (24·2 per cent) and 23 (9·7 per cent) with mild, moderate and severe disease respectively, according to the revised Atlanta classification. Forty-seven healthy volunteers were included. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) for circulating histones in predicting persistent organ failure and mortality was 0·92 (95 per cent c.i. 0·85 to 0·99) and 0·96 (0·92 to 1·00) respectively; histones were at least as accurate as clinical scores or biochemical markers. For infected pancreatic necrosis and/or sepsis, the AUC was 0·78 (0·62 to 0·94). Histones did not predict or correlate with local pancreatic complications, but correlated negatively with leucocyte cell viability (r = -0·511, P = 0·001). Quantitative assessment of circulating histones in plasma within 48 h of abdominal pain onset can predict persistent organ failure and mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis. Early death of immune cells may contribute to raised circulating histone levels in acute pancreatitis. © 2017 The Authors. BJS published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of BJS

[Case of pulmonary edema due to excessive hypertension following extubation].

PubMed

Takabayashi, Reina; Tajiri, Osamu; Ito, Hiroyuki; Yago, Yasuko

2010-12-01

A 54-year-old man had emergency laparoscopic chelecystectomy for acute cholecystitis. General inflammatory change (CRP 26.6 mg x dl(-1), WBC 26,800) was noted preoperatively. Anesthesia was induced with propofol and remifentanil and maintained with sevoflurane in oxygen and remifentanil. Operation was performed uneventfully within 128 min. At the end of the surgery, 0.1 mg of fentanyl was administrated. After confirming adequate respiration and oxygenation, endotracheal tube was removed. At that period, hypertension (SBP 220 mmHg) and tachycardia (HR 122 beats x min(-1)) developed. Soon thereafter, he became agitated and complained of dyspnea with desaturation (Spo2 < 70%). After reintubation, massive pinkish babbly secretion flowed out from the endotracheal tube. Chest X-ray revealed diffuse bilateral infiltration of the lungs without cardiomegaly. He was transferred to the intensive care unit for mechanical ventilation. His condition improved progressively and was extubated on the POD 6. The cause of pulmonary edema is thought to be profound centralization of circulating volume associated with catecholamine-induced vasoconstriction due to rapid disappearance of remifentanil effect. Adequate analgesia is necessary during remifentanil-based anesthesia especially in patients suffering from general inflammatory changes.

NASA Langley developments in response calculations needed for failure and life prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Housner, Jerrold M.

1993-01-01

NASA Langley developments in response calculations needed for failure and life predictions are discussed. Topics covered include: structural failure analysis in concurrent engineering; accuracy of independent regional modeling demonstrated on classical example; functional interface method accurately joins incompatible finite element models; interface method for insertion of local detail modeling extended to curve pressurized fuselage window panel; interface concept for joining structural regions; motivation for coupled 2D-3D analysis; compression panel with discontinuous stiffener coupled 2D-3D model and axial surface strains at the middle of the hat stiffener; use of adaptive refinement with multiple methods; adaptive mesh refinement; and studies on quantity effect of bow-type initial imperfections on reliability of stiffened panels.

Failure prediction in ceramic composites using acoustic emission and digital image correlation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitlow, Travis; Jones, Eric; Przybyla, Craig

2016-02-01

The objective of the work performed here was to develop a methodology for linking in-situ detection of localized matrix cracking to the final failure location in continuous fiber reinforced CMCs. First, the initiation and growth of matrix cracking are measured and triangulated via acoustic emission (AE) detection. High amplitude events at relatively low static loads can be associated with initiation of large matrix cracks. When there is a localization of high amplitude events, a measurable effect on the strain field can be observed. Full field surface strain measurements were obtained using digital image correlation (DIC). An analysis using the combination of the AE and DIC data was able to predict the final failure location.

Implementation of predictive data mining techniques for identifying risk factors of early AVF failure in hemodialysis patients.

PubMed

Rezapour, Mohammad; Khavanin Zadeh, Morteza; Sepehri, Mohammad Mehdi

2013-01-01

Arteriovenous fistula (AVF) is an important vascular access for hemodialysis (HD) treatment but has 20-60% rate of early failure. Detecting association between patient's parameters and early AVF failure is important for reducing its prevalence and relevant costs. Also predicting incidence of this complication in new patients is a beneficial controlling procedure. Patient safety and preservation of early AVF failure is the ultimate goal. Our research society is Hasheminejad Kidney Center (HKC) of Tehran, which is one of Iran's largest renal hospitals. We analyzed data of 193 HD patients using supervised techniques of data mining approach. There were 137 male (70.98%) and 56 female (29.02%) patients introduced into this study. The average of age for all the patients was 53.87 ± 17.47 years. Twenty eight patients had smoked and the number of diabetic patients and nondiabetics was 87 and 106, respectively. A significant relationship was found between "diabetes mellitus," "smoking," and "hypertension" with early AVF failure in this study. We have found that these mentioned risk factors have important roles in outcome of vascular surgery, versus other parameters such as "age." Then we predicted this complication in future AVF surgeries and evaluated our designed prediction methods with accuracy rates of 61.66%-75.13%.

Comparison of wiping and rinsing techniques after oral care procedures in critically ill patients during endotracheal intubation and after extubation: A prospective cross-over trial.

PubMed

Muramatsu, Keita; Matsuo, Koichiro; Kawai, Yusuke; Yamamoto, Tsukasa; Hara, Yoshitaka; Shimomura, Yasuyo; Yamashita, Chizuru; Nishida, Osamu

2018-06-26

Endotracheal intubation of critically ill patients increases the risk of aspiration pneumonia, which can be reduced by regular oral care. However, the rinsing of the residual oral contaminants after mechanical cleaning carries the risk of aspirating the residue during the intubation period. Removing the contaminants by wiping with mouth wipes could be an alternative to rinsing with water because of no additional fluid. This study tested: (i) the amount of oral bacteria during endotracheal intubation and after extubation; and (ii) the changes in the bacterial count during oral care procedures. Thirty-five mechanically ventilated patients in the intensive care unit were enrolled. The amount of bacteria on the dorsal tongue surface was counted before and following oral care and then after the elimination of contaminants either by rinsing with water and suctioning or by wiping with mouth wipes. The oral bacterial amount was compared statistically between the intubation and extubation status and among set time points during the oral care procedure. The oral bacterial count was significantly decreased after extubation. During the oral care procedure, the oral bacterial amount was significantly lower after eliminating the contaminants either by rinsing or wiping, with no remarkable difference between the elimination techniques. The findings suggest that the oral bacterial amount is elevated during endotracheal intubation, which could increase the risk of aspiration pneumonia. The significant reduction in the bacterial count by wiping indicates that it might be a suitable alternative to rinsing for mechanically ventilated patients. © 2018 Japan Academy of Nursing Science.

TNF Receptor 1/2 Predict Heart Failure Risk in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients.

PubMed

Ping, Zhang; Aiqun, Ma; Jiwu, Li; Liang, Shao

2017-04-06

Inflammation plays an important role in heart failure and diabetes mellitus. Traditional serum markers have limited predictive value in heart failure and diabetes. TNFR1 and TNFR2 (TNFR1/2) have been proven to be strongly associated with heart failure and diabetes complications. This study aimed to assess the association of sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 levels and incidental HF risk in diabetes patients.We detected the mRNA, protein, and serum expression of TNFR1/2, their downstream signaling pathway protein NF-kB, and JNK expression and some traditional serum inflammatory markers in a heart failure group without diabetes mellitus or abnormal glucose tolerance (n = 84), a diabetes mellitus group without heart failure (n = 86), and a heart failure with diabetes mellitus group (n = 86).TNFR1/2 were significantly higher in patients with heart failure and diabetes mellitus based on mRNA expression to protein expression and serum expression. However, there were no differences in mRNA, protein, and serum levels of TNFR1/2 between the HF group and DM group. Furthermore, there were no differences between the groups in some traditional serum inflammatory markers.This study demonstrated higher expressions of TNFR, NF-kB, and JNK in patients with heart failure and diabetes mellitus. Compared with traditional serum markers, TNFR1 and TNFR2 are associated with heart failure risk in type 2 diabetes mellitus patients.

GRACE score predicts heart failure admission following acute coronary syndrome.

PubMed

McAllister, David A; Halbesma, Nynke; Carruthers, Kathryn; Denvir, Martin; Fox, Keith A

2015-04-01

Congestive heart failure (CHF) is a common and preventable complication of acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Nevertheless, ACS risk scores have not been shown to predict CHF risk. We investigated whether the at-discharge Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score predicts heart failure admission following ACS. Five-year mortality and hospitalization data were obtained for patients admitted with ACS from June 1999 to September 2009 to a single centre of the GRACE registry. CHF was defined as any admission assigned WHO International Classification of Diseases 10 diagnostic code I50. The hazard ratio (HR) for CHF according to GRACE score was estimated in Cox models adjusting for age, gender and the presence of CHF on index admission. Among 1,956 patients, CHF was recorded on index admission in 141 patients (7%), and 243 (12%) were admitted with CHF over 3.8 median years of follow-up. Compared to the lowest quintile, patients in the highest GRACE score quintile had more CHF admissions (116 vs 17) and a shorter time to first admission (1.2 vs 2.0 years, HR 9.87, 95% CI 5.93-16.43). Per standard deviation increment in GRACE score, the instantaneous risk was more than two-fold higher (HR 2.28; 95% CI 2.02-2.57), including after adjustment for CHF on index admission, age and gender (HR 2.49; 95% CI 2.06-3.02). The C-statistic for CHF admission at 1-year was 0.74 (95% CI 0.70-0.79). The GRACE score predicts CHF admission, and may therefore be used to target ACS patients at high risk of CHF with clinical monitoring and therapies. © The European Society of Cardiology 2014.

Rational temporal predictions can underlie apparent failures to delay gratification

PubMed Central

McGuire, Joseph T.; Kable, Joseph W.

2013-01-01

An important category of seemingly maladaptive decisions involves failure to postpone gratification. A person pursuing a desirable long-run outcome may abandon it in favor of a short-run alternative that has been available all along. Here we present a theoretical framework in which this seemingly irrational behavior emerges from stable preferences and veridical judgments. Our account recognizes that decision makers generally face uncertainty regarding the time at which future outcomes will materialize. When timing is uncertain, the value of persistence depends crucially on the nature of a decision-maker’s prior temporal beliefs. Certain forms of temporal beliefs imply that a delay’s predicted remaining length increases as a function of time already waited. In this type of situation, the rational, utility-maximizing strategy is to persist for a limited amount of time and then give up. We show empirically that people’s explicit predictions of remaining delay lengths indeed increase as a function of elapsed time in several relevant domains, implying that temporal judgments offer a rational basis for limiting persistence. We then develop our framework into a simple working model and show how it accounts for individual differences in a laboratory task (the well-known “marshmallow test”). We conclude that delay-of-gratification failure, generally viewed as a manifestation of limited self-control capacity, can instead arise as an adaptive response to the perceived statistics of one’s environment. PMID:23458085

Prediction of Composite Pressure Vessel Failure Location using Fiber Bragg Grating Sensors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kreger, Steven T.; Taylor, F. Tad; Ortyl, Nicholas E.; Grant, Joseph

2006-01-01

Ten composite pressure vessels were instrumented with fiber Bragg grating sensors in order to assess the strain levels of the vessel under various loading conditions. This paper and presentation will discuss the testing methodology, the test results, compare the testing results to the analytical model, and present a possible methodology for predicting the failure location and strain level of composite pressure vessels.

Tension Strength, Failure Prediction and Damage Mechanisms in 2D Triaxial Braided Composites with Notch

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norman, Timothy L.; Anglin, Colin

1995-01-01

The unnotched and notched (open hole) tensile strength and failure mechanisms of two-dimensional (2D) triaxial braided composites were examined. The effect of notch size and notch position were investigated. Damage initiation and propagation in notched and unnotched coupons were also examined. Theory developed to predict the normal stress distribution near an open hole and failure for tape laminated composites was evaluated for its applicability to 2D triaxial braided textile composite materials. Four different fiber architectures were considered; braid angle, yarn and braider size, percentage of longitudinal yarns and braider angle varied. Tape laminates equivalent to textile composites were also constructed for comparison. Unnotched tape equivalents were stronger than braided textiles but exhibited greater notch sensitivity. Notched textiles and tape equivalents have roughly the same strength at large notch sizes. Two common damage mechanisms were found: braider yarn cracking and near notch longitudinal yarn splitting. Cracking was found to initiate in braider yarns in unnotched and notched coupons, and propagate in the direction of the braider yarns until failure. Damage initiation stress decreased with increasing braid angle. No significant differences in prediction of near notch strain between textile and tape equivalents could be detected for small braid angle, but the correlations were weak for textiles with large braid angle. Notch strength could not be predicted using existing anisotropic theory for braided textiles due to their insensitivity to notch.

Characterization of acute-on-chronic liver failure and prediction of mortality in Asian patients with active alcoholism.

PubMed

Kim, Hwi Young; Chang, Young; Park, Jae Yong; Ahn, Hongkeun; Cho, Hyeki; Han, Seung Jun; Oh, Sohee; Kim, Donghee; Jung, Yong Jin; Kim, Byeong Gwan; Lee, Kook Lae; Kim, Won

2016-02-01

Alcoholic liver diseases often evolve to acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), which increases the risk of (multi-)organ failure and death. We investigated the development and characteristics of alcohol-related ACLF and evaluated prognostic scores for prediction of mortality in Asian patients with active alcoholism. A total of 205 patients who were hospitalized with severe alcoholic liver disease were included in this retrospective cohort study, after excluding those with serious cardiovascular diseases, malignancy, or co-existing viral hepatitis. The Chronic Liver Failure (CLIF) Consortium Organ Failure score was used in the diagnosis and grading of ACLF, and the CLIF Consortium ACLF score (CLIF-C ACLFs) was used to predict mortality. Patients with ACLF had higher Maddrey discriminant function, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), and MELD-sodium scores than those without ACLF. Infections were more frequently documented in patients with ACLF (33.3% vs 53.0%; P = 0.004). Predictive factors for ACLF development were systemic inflammatory response syndrome (odds ratio [OR], 2.239; P < 0.001), serum sodium level (OR, 0.939; P = 0.029), and neutrophil count (OR, 1.000; P = 0.021). For prediction of mortality at predefined time points (28-day and 90-day) in patients with ACLF, areas under the receiver-operating characteristic were significantly greater for the CLIF-C ACLFs than for Child-Pugh, MELD, and MELD-sodium scores. Infection and systemic inflammatory response syndrome play an important role in the development of alcohol-related ACLF in Asian patients with active alcoholism. The CLIF-C ACLFs may be more useful for predicting mortality in ACLF cases than liver-specific scoring systems. © 2015 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

The prediction of cyclic proximal humerus fracture fixation failure by various bone density measures.

PubMed

Varga, Peter; Grünwald, Leonard; Windolf, Markus

2018-02-22

Fixation of osteoporotic proximal humerus fractures has remained challenging, but may be improved by careful pre-operative planning. The aim of this study was to investigate how well the failure of locking plate fixation of osteoporotic proximal humerus fractures can be predicted by bone density measures assessed with currently available clinical imaging (realistic case) and a higher resolution and quality modality (theoretical best-case). Various density measures were correlated to experimentally assessed number of cycles to construct failure of plated unstable low-density proximal humerus fractures (N = 18). The influence of density evaluation technique was investigated by comparing local (peri-implant) versus global evaluation regions; HR-pQCT-based versus clinical QCT-based image data; ipsilateral versus contralateral side; and bone mineral content (BMC) versus bone mineral density (BMD). All investigated density measures were significantly correlated with the experimental cycles to failure. The best performing clinically feasible parameter was the QCT-based BMC of the contralateral articular cap region, providing significantly better correlation (R 2  = 0.53) compared to a previously proposed clinical density measure (R 2  = 0.30). BMC had consistently, but not significantly stronger correlations with failure than BMD. The overall best results were obtained with the ipsilateral HR-pQCT-based local BMC (R 2  = 0.74) that may be used for implant optimization. Strong correlations were found between the corresponding density measures of the two CT image sources, as well as between the two sides. Future studies should investigate if BMC of the contralateral articular cap region could provide improved prediction of clinical fixation failure compared to previously proposed measures. © 2018 Orthopaedic Research Society. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Orthop Res. © 2018 Orthopaedic Research Society. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Failure Mode Classification for Life Prediction Modeling of Solid-State Lighting

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sakalaukus, Peter Joseph

2015-08-01

��light power” of the SSL luminaire. The use of the Arrhenius equation necessitates two different temperature conditions, 25°C and 45°C are suggested by TM28, to determine the SSL lamp specific activation energy. One principal issue with TM28 is the lack of additional stresses or parameters needed to characterize non-temperature dependent failure mechanisms. Another principal issue with TM28 is the assumption that lumen maintenance or lumen depreciation gives an adequate comparison between SSL luminaires. Additionally, TM28 has no process for the determination of acceleration factors or lifetime estimations. Currently, a literature gap exists for established accelerated test methods for SSL devices to assess quality, reliability and durability before being introduced into the marketplace. Furthermore, there is a need for Physics-of-Failure based approaches to understand the processes and mechanisms that induce failure for the assessment of SSL reliability in order to develop generalized acceleration factors that better represent SSL product lifetime. This and the deficiencies in TM28 validate the need behind the development of acceleration techniques to quantify SSL reliability under a variety of environmental conditions. The ability to assess damage accrual and investigate reliability of SSL components and systems is essential to understanding the life time of the SSL device itself. The methodologies developed in this work increases the understanding of SSL devices iv through the investigation of component and device reliability under a variety of accelerated test conditions. The approaches for suitable lifetime predictions through the development of novel generalized acceleration factors, as well as a prognostics and health management framework, will greatly reduce the time and effort needed to produce SSL acceleration factors for the development of lifetime predictions.« less

Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hatfield, Glen S.; Hark, Frank; Stott, James

2016-01-01

Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account system integration risks such as those attributable to manufacturing and assembly. These sources often dominate component level risk. While consequence of failure is often understood, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence may underestimate the actual risk. Managers and decision makers use the probability of occurrence to influence the determination whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. The actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be fully understood due to the absence of system level test data or operational data. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

SU-F-R-46: Predicting Distant Failure in Lung SBRT Using Multi-Objective Radiomics Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Z; Folkert, M; Iyengar, P

2016-06-15

Purpose: To predict distant failure in lung stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) in early stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) by using a new multi-objective radiomics model. Methods: Currently, most available radiomics models use the overall accuracy as the objective function. However, due to data imbalance, a single object may not reflect the performance of a predictive model. Therefore, we developed a multi-objective radiomics model which considers both sensitivity and specificity as the objective functions simultaneously. The new model is used to predict distant failure in lung SBRT using 52 patients treated at our institute. Quantitative imaging features of PETmore » and CT as well as clinical parameters are utilized to build the predictive model. Image features include intensity features (9), textural features (12) and geometric features (8). Clinical parameters for each patient include demographic parameters (4), tumor characteristics (8), treatment faction schemes (4) and pretreatment medicines (6). The modelling procedure consists of two steps: extracting features from segmented tumors in PET and CT; and selecting features and training model parameters based on multi-objective. Support Vector Machine (SVM) is used as the predictive model, while a nondominated sorting-based multi-objective evolutionary computation algorithm II (NSGA-II) is used for solving the multi-objective optimization. Results: The accuracy for PET, clinical, CT, PET+clinical, PET+CT, CT+clinical, PET+CT+clinical are 71.15%, 84.62%, 84.62%, 85.54%, 82.69%, 84.62%, 86.54%, respectively. The sensitivities for the above seven combinations are 41.76%, 58.33%, 50.00%, 50.00%, 41.67%, 41.67%, 58.33%, while the specificities are 80.00%, 92.50%, 90.00%, 97.50%, 92.50%, 97.50%, 97.50%. Conclusion: A new multi-objective radiomics model for predicting distant failure in NSCLC treated with SBRT was developed. The experimental results show that the best performance can be obtained by

Implicit and Explicit Attitudes Predict Smoking Cessation: Moderating Effects of Experienced Failure to Control Smoking and Plans to Quit

PubMed Central

Chassin, Laurie; Presson, Clark C.; Sherman, Steven J.; Seo, Dong-Chul; Macy, Jon

2010-01-01

The current study tested implicit and explicit attitudes as prospective predictors of smoking cessation in a Midwestern community sample of smokers. Results showed that the effects of attitudes significantly varied with levels of experienced failure to control smoking and plans to quit. Explicit attitudes significantly predicted later cessation among those with low (but not high or average) levels of experienced failure to control smoking. Conversely, however, implicit attitudes significantly predicted later cessation among those with high levels of experienced failure to control smoking, but only if they had a plan to quit. Because smoking cessation involves both controlled and automatic processes, interventions may need to consider attitude change interventions that focus on both implicit and explicit attitudes. PMID:21198227

A model for predicting embankment slope failures in clay-rich soils; A Louisiana example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burns, S. F.

2015-12-01

A model for predicting embankment slope failures in clay-rich soils; A Louisiana example It is well known that smectite-rich soils significantly reduce the stability of slopes. The question is how much smectite in the soil causes slope failures. A study of over 100 sites in north and south Louisiana, USA, compared slopes that failed during a major El Nino winter (heavy rainfall) in 1982-1983 to similar slopes that did not fail. Soils in the slopes were tested for per cent clay, liquid limits, plasticity indices and semi-quantitative clay mineralogy. Slopes with the High Risk for failure (85-90% chance of failure in 8-15 years after construction) contained soils with a liquid limit > 54%, a plasticity index over 29%, and clay contents > 47%. Slopes with an Intermediate Risk (55-50% chance of failure in 8-15 years) contained soils with a liquid limit between 36-54%, plasticity index between 16-19%, and clay content between 32-47%. Slopes with a Low Risk chance of failure (< 5% chance of failure in 8-15 years after construction) contained soils with a liquid limit < 36%, a plasticity index < 16%, and a clay content < 32%. These data show that if one is constructing embankments and one wants to prevent slope failure of the 3:1 slopes, check the above soil characteristics before construction. If the soils fall into the Low Risk classification, construct the embankment normally. If the soils fall into the High Risk classification, one will need to use lime stabilization or heat treatments to prevent failures. Soils in the Intermediate Risk class will have to be evaluated on a case by case basis.

Association of Post-extubation Dysphagia With Tongue Weakness and Somatosensory Disturbance in Non-neurologic Critically Ill Patients

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Objective To prospectively assess the association between impoverished sensorimotor integration of the tongue and lips and post-extubation dysphagia (PED). Methods This cross-sectional study included non-neurologic critically ill adult patients who required endotracheal intubation and underwent videofluoroscopic swallowing study (VFSS) between October and December 2016. Participants underwent evaluation for tongue and lip performance, and oral somatosensory function. Demographic and clinical data were retrieved from medical records. Results Nineteen patients without a definite cause of dysphagia were divided into the non-dysphagia (n=6) and the PED (n=13) groups based on VFSS findings. Patients with PED exhibited greater mean duration of intubation (11.85±3.72 days) and length of stay in the intensive care unit (LOS-ICU; 13.69±3.40 days) than those without PED (6.83±5.12 days and 9.50±5.96 days; p=0.02 and p=0.04, respectively). The PED group exhibited greater incidence of pneumonia, higher videofluoroscopy swallow study dysphagia scale score, higher oral transit time, and lower tongue power and endurance and lip strength than the non-dysphagia groups. The differences in two-point discrimination and sensations of light touch and taste among the two groups were insignificant. Patients intubated for more than 7 days exhibited lower maximal tongue power and tongue endurance than those intubated for less than a week. Conclusion Duration of endotracheal intubation, LOS-ICU, and oromotor degradation were associated with PED development. Oromotor degradation was associated with the severity of dysphagia. Bedside oral performance evaluation might help identify patients who might experience post-extubation swallowing difficulty. PMID:29354572

Implicit and explicit attitudes predict smoking cessation: moderating effects of experienced failure to control smoking and plans to quit.

PubMed

Chassin, Laurie; Presson, Clark C; Sherman, Steven J; Seo, Dong-Chul; Macy, Jonathan T

2010-12-01

The current study tested implicit and explicit attitudes as prospective predictors of smoking cessation in a Midwestern community sample of smokers. Results showed that the effects of attitudes significantly varied with levels of experienced failure to control smoking and plans to quit. Explicit attitudes significantly predicted later cessation among those with low (but not high or average) levels of experienced failure to control smoking. Conversely, however, implicit attitudes significantly predicted later cessation among those with high levels of experienced failure to control smoking, but only if they had a plan to quit. Because smoking cessation involves both controlled and automatic processes, interventions may need to consider attitude change interventions that focus on both implicit and explicit attitudes. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved).

Predicting short-term mortality in advanced decompensated heart failure - role of the updated acute decompensated heart failure/N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic Peptide risk score.

PubMed

Scrutinio, Domenico; Ammirati, Enrico; Passantino, Andrea; Guida, Pietro; D'Angelo, Luciana; Oliva, Fabrizio; Ciccone, Marco Matteo; Iacoviello, Massimo; Dentamaro, Ilaria; Santoro, Daniela; Lagioia, Rocco; Sarzi Braga, Simona; Guzzetti, Daniela; Frigerio, Maria

2015-01-01

The first few months after admission are the most vulnerable period in patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). We assessed the association of the updated ADHF/N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) risk score with 90-day and in-hospital mortality in 701 patients admitted with advanced ADHF, defined as severe symptoms of worsening HF, severely depressed left ventricular ejection fraction, and the need for i.v. diuretic and/or inotropic drugs. A total of 15.7% of the patients died within 90 days of admission and 5.2% underwent ventricular assist device (VAD) implantation or urgent heart transplantation (UHT). The C-statistic of the ADHF/NT-proBNP risk score for 90-day mortality was 0.810 (95% CI: 0.769-0.852). Predicted and observed mortality rates were in close agreement. When the composite outcome of death/VAD/UHT at 90 days was considered, the C-statistic decreased to 0.741. During hospitalization, 7.6% of the patients died. The C-statistic for in-hospital mortality was 0.815 (95% CI: 0.761-0.868) and Hosmer-Lemeshow χ(2)=3.71 (P=0.716). The updated ADHF/NT-proBNP risk score outperformed the Acute Decompensated Heart Failure National Registry, the Organized Program to Initiate Lifesaving Treatment in Patients Hospitalized for Heart Failure, and the American Heart Association Get with the Guidelines Program predictive models. Updated ADHF/NT-proBNP risk score is a valuable tool for predicting short-term mortality in severe ADHF, outperforming existing inpatient predictive models.

Availability of anesthetic effect monitoring: utilization, intraoperative management and time to extubation in liver transplantation.

PubMed

Schumann, R; Hudcova, J; Bonney, I; Cepeda, M S

2010-12-01

Titration of volatile anesthetics to anesthetic effect monitoring using the bispectral index (BIS) has been shown to decrease anesthetic requirements and facilitate recovery from anesthesia unrelated to liver transplantation (OLT). To determine whether availability of such monitoring influences its utilization pattern and affect anesthetic care and outcomes in OLT, we conducted a retrospective analysis in recipients with and without such monitoring. We evaluated annual BIS utilization over a period of 7 years, and compared 41 BIS-monitored patients to 42 controls. All received an isoflurane/air/oxygen and opioid-based anesthetic with planned postoperative ventilation. Data collection included age, body mass index (BMI), gender, Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, and time to extubation (TtE). Mean preanhepatic, anhepatic, and postanhepatic end-tidal isoflurane concentrations were compared, as well as BIS values for each phase of OLT using the Kruskal-Wallis and Wilcoxon signed-rank tests, respectively. The use of anesthetic effect monitoring when available increased steadily from 15% of cases in the first year to almost 93% by year 7. There was no significant difference in age, gender, BMI, MELD, or TtE between groups. The BIS group received less inhalational anesthetic during each phase of OLT compared to the control group. However, this difference was statistically significant only during the anhepatic phase (P = .026), and was clinically not impressive. Within the BIS group, the mean BIS value was 38.74 ± 5.25 (mean ± standard deviation), and there was no difference for the BIS value between different transplant phases. Availability of anesthetic effect monitoring as an optional monitoring tool during OLT results in its increasing utilization by anesthesia care teams over time. However, unless integrated into an intraoperative algorithm and an early extubation protocol for fast tracking of OLT recipients, this utilization does not appear to provide

A relation to predict the failure of materials and potential application to volcanic eruptions and landslides.

PubMed

Hao, Shengwang; Liu, Chao; Lu, Chunsheng; Elsworth, Derek

2016-06-16

A theoretical explanation of a time-to-failure relation is presented, with this relationship then used to describe the failure of materials. This provides the potential to predict timing (tf - t) immediately before failure by extrapolating the trajectory as it asymptotes to zero with no need to fit unknown exponents as previously proposed in critical power law behaviors. This generalized relation is verified by comparison with approaches to criticality for volcanic eruptions and creep failure. A new relation based on changes with stress is proposed as an alternative expression of Voight's relation, which is widely used to describe the accelerating precursory signals before material failure and broadly applied to volcanic eruptions, landslides and other phenomena. The new generalized relation reduces to Voight's relation if stress is limited to increase at a constant rate with time. This implies that the time-derivatives in Voight's analysis may be a subset of a more general expression connecting stress derivatives, and thus provides a potential method for forecasting these events.

What Predicts Children's Fixed and Growth Intelligence Mind-Sets? Not Their Parents' Views of Intelligence but Their Parents' Views of Failure.

PubMed

Haimovitz, Kyla; Dweck, Carol S

2016-06-01

Children's intelligence mind-sets (i.e., their beliefs about whether intelligence is fixed or malleable) robustly influence their motivation and learning. Yet, surprisingly, research has not linked parents' intelligence mind-sets to their children's. We tested the hypothesis that a different belief of parents-their failure mind-sets-may be more visible to children and therefore more prominent in shaping their beliefs. In Study 1, we found that parents can view failure as debilitating or enhancing, and that these failure mind-sets predict parenting practices and, in turn, children's intelligence mind-sets. Study 2 probed more deeply into how parents display failure mind-sets. In Study 3a, we found that children can indeed accurately perceive their parents' failure mind-sets but not their parents' intelligence mind-sets. Study 3b showed that children's perceptions of their parents' failure mind-sets also predicted their own intelligence mind-sets. Finally, Study 4 showed a causal effect of parents' failure mind-sets on their responses to their children's hypothetical failure. Overall, parents who see failure as debilitating focus on their children's performance and ability rather than on their children's learning, and their children, in turn, tend to believe that intelligence is fixed rather than malleable. © The Author(s) 2016.

Heart rate turbulence predicts all-cause mortality and sudden death in congestive heart failure patients.

PubMed

Cygankiewicz, Iwona; Zareba, Wojciech; Vazquez, Rafael; Vallverdu, Montserrat; Gonzalez-Juanatey, Jose R; Valdes, Mariano; Almendral, Jesus; Cinca, Juan; Caminal, Pere; de Luna, Antoni Bayes

2008-08-01

Abnormal heart rate turbulence (HRT) has been documented as a strong predictor of total mortality and sudden death in postinfarction patients, but data in patients with congestive heart failure (CHF) are limited. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic significance of HRT for predicting mortality in CHF patients in New York Heart Association (NYHA) class II-III. In 651 CHF patients with sinus rhythm enrolled into the MUSIC (Muerte Subita en Insuficiencia Cardiaca) study, the standard HRT parameters turbulence onset (TO) and slope (TS), as well as HRT categories, were assessed for predicting total mortality and sudden death. HRT was analyzable in 607 patients, mean age 63 years (434 male), 50% of ischemic etiology. During a median follow up of 44 months, 129 patients died, 52 from sudden death. Abnormal TS and HRT category 2 (HRT2) were independently associated with increased all-cause mortality (HR: 2.10, CI: 1.41 to 3.12, P <.001 and HR: 2.52, CI: 1.56 to 4.05, P <.001; respectively), sudden death (HR: 2.25, CI: 1.13 to 4.46, P = .021 for HRT2), and death due to heart failure progression (HR: 4.11, CI: 1.84 to 9.19, P <.001 for HRT2) after adjustment for clinical covariates in multivariate analysis. The prognostic value of TS for predicting total mortality was similar in various groups dichotomized by age, gender, NYHA class, left ventricular ejection fraction, and CHF etiology. TS was found to be predictive for total mortality only in patients with QRS > 120 ms. HRT is a potent risk predictor for both heart failure and arrhythmic death in patients with class II and III CHF.

Strength Evaluation and Failure Prediction of Short Carbon Fiber Reinforced Nylon Spur Gears by Finite Element Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Zhong; Hossan, Mohammad Robiul

2013-06-01

In this paper, short carbon fiber reinforced nylon spur gear pairs, and steel and unreinforced nylon spur gear pairs have been selected for study and comparison. A 3D finite element model was developed to simulate the multi-axial stress-strain behaviors of the gear tooth. Failure prediction has been conducted based on the different failure criteria, including Tsai-Wu criterion. The tooth roots, where has stress concentration and the potential for failure, have been carefully investigated. The modeling results show that the short carbon fiber reinforced nylon gear fabricated by properly controlled injection molding processes can provide higher strength and better performance.

Failure prediction for the optimization of stretch forming aluminium-polymer laminate foils used for pharmaceutical packaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, Simon; Weygand, Sabine M.

2018-05-01

Axisymmetric stretch forming processes of aluminium-polymer laminate foils (e.g. consisting of PA-Al-PVC layers) are analyzed numerically by finite element modeling of the multi-layer material as well as experimentally in order to identify a suitable damage initiation criterion. A simple ductile fracture criterion is proposed to predict the forming limits. The corresponding material constants are determined from tensile tests and then applied in forming simulations with different punch geometries. A comparison between the simulations and the experimental results shows that the determined failure constants are not applicable. Therefore, one forming experiment was selected and in the corresponding simulation the failure constant was fitted to its measured maximum stretch. With this approach it is possible to predict the forming limit of the laminate foil with satisfying accuracy for different punch geometries.

Triglyceride-to-HDL cholesterol ratio. Predictive value for CHD severity and new-onset heart failure.

PubMed

Yunke, Z; Guoping, L; Zhenyue, C

2014-02-01

This study aimed to explore the association between the triglyceride-to-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL-C) ratio and the severity of coronary heart disease (CHD). It also evaluated the clinical role of the TG/HDL-C ratio in predicting in-hospital CHD events and the long-term prognosis of CHD patients. According to the results of coronary angiography examinations, 317 patients were enrolled in the study and classified into a CHD group (n=233) and a control group (n=84). The TG/HDL-C ratio was calculated at baseline. The CHD group was then further classified into cases of single-branch stenosis (n=79), double-branch stenosis (n=73), and multi-branch stenosis (n=81). The Gensini score was calculated for each group to analyze the relationship between the TG/HDL-C ratio and the severity of CHD. The TG/HDL-C ratio in the CHD group was significantly higher than in the normal group (P < 0.001). The TG/HDL-C ratio was positively correlated with the Gensini score. The ratio was significantly higher in patients with new-onset heart failure than in those without heart failure events (P < 0.05). An average 3-year follow-up showed that the serum TG/HDL-C ratios of patients with adverse events were significantly higher than other patients (P <  0.01). The TG/HDL-C ratio is predictive of the severity of CHD. It could also help predict in-hospital new-onset heart failure incidents of CHD patients.

Defining and predicting 'intrauterine fetal renal failure' in congenital lower urinary tract obstruction.

PubMed

Ruano, Rodrigo; Safdar, Adnan; Au, Jason; Koh, Chester J; Gargollo, Patricio; Shamshirsaz, Alireza A; Espinoza, Jimmy; Cass, Darrell L; Olutoye, Oluyinka O; Olutoye, Olutoyin A; Welty, Stephen; Roth, David R; Belfort, Michael A; Braun, Michael C

2016-04-01

The aim of this study was to identify predictors of 'intrauterine fetal renal failure' in fetuses with severe congenital lower urinary tract obstruction (LUTO). We undertook a retrospective study of 31 consecutive fetuses with a diagnosis of LUTO in a tertiary Fetal Center between April 2013 and April 2015. Predictors of 'intrauterine fetal renal failure' were evaluated in those infants with severe LUTO who had either a primary composite outcome measure of neonatal death in the first 24 h of life due to severe pulmonary hypoplasia or a need for renal replacement therapy within 7 days of life. The following variables were analyzed: fetal bladder re-expansion 48 h after vesicocentesis, fetal renal ultrasound characteristics, fetal urinary indices, and amniotic fluid volume. Of the 31 fetuses included in the study, eight met the criteria for 'intrauterine fetal renal failure'. All of the latter had composite poor postnatal outcomes based on death within 24 h of life (n = 6) or need for dialysis within 1 week of life (n = 2). The percentage of fetal bladder refilling after vesicocentesis at time of initial evaluation was the only predictor of 'intrauterine fetal renal failure' (cut-off <27 %, area under the time-concentration curve 0.86, 95 % confidence interval 0.68-0.99; p = 0.009). We propose the concept of 'intrauterine fetal renal failure' in fetuses with the most severe forms of LUTO. Fetal bladder refilling can be used to reliably predict 'intrauterine fetal renal failure', which is associated with severe pulmonary hypoplasia or the need for dialysis within a few days of life.

Mechanical ventilation weaning and extubation after spinal cord injury: a Western Trauma Association multicenter study.

PubMed

Kornblith, Lucy Z; Kutcher, Matthew E; Callcut, Rachael A; Redick, Brittney J; Hu, Charles K; Cogbill, Thomas H; Baker, Christopher C; Shapiro, Mark L; Burlew, Clay C; Kaups, Krista L; DeMoya, Marc A; Haan, James M; Koontz, Christopher H; Zolin, Samuel J; Gordy, Stephanie D; Shatz, David V; Paul, Doug B; Cohen, Mitchell J

2013-12-01

Respiratory failure after acute spinal cord injury (SCI) is well recognized, but data defining which patients need long-term ventilator support and criteria for weaning and extubation are lacking. We hypothesized that many patients with SCI, even those with cervical SCI, can be successfully managed without long-term mechanical ventilation and its associated morbidity. Under the auspices of the Western Trauma Association Multi-Center Trials Group, a retrospective study of patients with SCI at 14 major trauma centers was conducted. Comprehensive injury, demographic, and outcome data on patients with acute SCI were compiled. The primary outcome variable was the need for mechanical ventilation at discharge. Secondary outcomes included the use of tracheostomy and development of acute lung injury and ventilator-associated pneumonia. A total of 360 patients had SCI requiring mechanical ventilation. Sixteen patients were excluded for death within the first 2 days of hospitalization. Of the 344 patients included, 222 (64.5%) had cervical SCI. Notably, 62.6% of the patients with cervical SCI were ventilator free by discharge. One hundred forty-nine patients (43.3%) underwent tracheostomy, and 53.7% of them were successfully weaned from the ventilator, compared with an 85.6% success rate among those with no tracheostomy (p < 0.05). Patients who underwent tracheostomy had significantly higher rates of ventilator-associated pneumonia (61.1% vs. 20.5%, p < 0.05) and acute lung injury (12.8% vs. 3.6%, p < 0.05) and fewer ventilator-free days (1 vs. 24 p < 0.05). When controlled for injury severity, thoracic injury, and respiratory comorbidities, tracheostomy after cervical SCI was an independent predictor of ventilator dependence with an associated 14-fold higher likelihood of prolonged mechanical ventilation (odds ratio, 14.1; 95% confidence interval, 2.78-71.67; p < 0.05). While many patients with SCI require short-term mechanical ventilation, the majority can be successfully

Prediction of line failure fault based on weighted fuzzy dynamic clustering and improved relational analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, Xiaocheng; Che, Renfei; Gao, Shi; He, Juntao

2018-04-01

With the advent of large data age, power system research has entered a new stage. At present, the main application of large data in the power system is the early warning analysis of the power equipment, that is, by collecting the relevant historical fault data information, the system security is improved by predicting the early warning and failure rate of different kinds of equipment under certain relational factors. In this paper, a method of line failure rate warning is proposed. Firstly, fuzzy dynamic clustering is carried out based on the collected historical information. Considering the imbalance between the attributes, the coefficient of variation is given to the corresponding weights. And then use the weighted fuzzy clustering to deal with the data more effectively. Then, by analyzing the basic idea and basic properties of the relational analysis model theory, the gray relational model is improved by combining the slope and the Deng model. And the incremental composition and composition of the two sequences are also considered to the gray relational model to obtain the gray relational degree between the various samples. The failure rate is predicted according to the principle of weighting. Finally, the concrete process is expounded by an example, and the validity and superiority of the proposed method are verified.

Very High Cycle Fatigue Failure Analysis and Life Prediction of Cr-Ni-W Gear Steel Based on Crack Initiation and Growth Behaviors.

PubMed

Deng, Hailong; Li, Wei; Sakai, Tatsuo; Sun, Zhenduo

2015-12-02

The unexpected failures of structural materials in very high cycle fatigue (VHCF) regime have been a critical issue in modern engineering design. In this study, the VHCF property of a Cr-Ni-W gear steel was experimentally investigated under axial loading with the stress ratio of R = -1, and a life prediction model associated with crack initiation and growth behaviors was proposed. Results show that the Cr-Ni-W gear steel exhibits the constantly decreasing S-N property without traditional fatigue limit, and the fatigue strength corresponding to 10⁸ cycles is around 485 MPa. The inclusion-fine granular area (FGA)-fisheye induced failure becomes the main failure mechanism in the VHCF regime, and the local stress around the inclusion play a key role. By using the finite element analysis of representative volume element, the local stress tends to increase with the increase of elastic modulus difference between inclusion and matrix. The predicted crack initiation life occupies the majority of total fatigue life, while the predicted crack growth life is only accounts for a tiny fraction. In view of the good agreement between the predicted and experimental results, the proposed VHCF life prediction model involving crack initiation and growth can be acceptable for inclusion-FGA-fisheye induced failure.

Application of a neural network as a potential aid in predicting NTF pump failure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rogers, James L.; Hill, Jeffrey S.; Lamarsh, William J., II; Bradley, David E.

1993-01-01

The National Transonic Facility has three centrifugal multi-stage pumps to supply liquid nitrogen to the wind tunnel. Pump reliability is critical to facility operation and test capability. A highly desirable goal is to be able to detect a pump rotating component problem as early as possible during normal operation and avoid serious damage to other pump components. If a problem is detected before serious damage occurs, the repair cost and downtime could be reduced significantly. A neural network-based tool was developed for monitoring pump performance and aiding in predicting pump failure. Once trained, neural networks can rapidly process many combinations of input values other than those used for training to approximate previously unknown output values. This neural network was applied to establish relationships among the critical frequencies and aid in predicting failures. Training pairs were developed from frequency scans from typical tunnel operations. After training, various combinations of critical pump frequencies were propagated through the neural network. The approximated output was used to create a contour plot depicting the relationships of the input frequencies to the output pump frequency.

Slope Failure Prediction and Early Warning Awareness Education for Reducing Landslides Casualty in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koay, S. P.; Tay, L. T.; Fukuoka, H.; Koyama, T.; Sakai, N.; Jamaludin, S. B.; Lateh, H.

2015-12-01

Northeast monsoon causes heavy rain in east coast of Peninsular Malaysia from November to March, every year. During this monsoon period, besides the happening of flood along east coast, landslides also causes millions of Malaysian Ringgit economical losses. Hence, it is essential to study the prediction of slope failure to prevent the casualty of landslides happening. In our study, we introduce prediction method of the accumulated rainfall affecting the stability of the slope. If the curve, in the graph, which is presented by rainfall intensity versus accumulated rainfall, crosses over the critical line, the condition of the slope is considered in high risk where the data are calculated and sent from rain gauge in the site via internet. If the possibility of slope failure is going high, the alert message will be sent out to the authorities for decision making on road block or setting the warning light at the road side. Besides road block and warning light, we propose to disseminate short message, to pre-registered mobile phone user, to notify the public for easing the traffic jam and avoiding unnecessary public panic. Prediction is not enough to prevent the casualty. Early warning awareness of the public is very important to reduce the casualty of landslides happening. IT technology does not only play a main role in disseminating information, early warning awareness education, by using IT technology, should be conducted, in schools, to give early warning awareness on natural hazard since childhood. Knowing the pass history on landslides occurrence will gain experience on the landslides happening. Landslides historical events with coordinate information are stored in database. The public can browse these historical events via internet. By referring to such historical landslides events, the public may know where did landslides happen before and the possibility of slope failure occurrence again is considered high. Simulation of rainfall induced slope failure mechanism

A single-item self-report medication adherence question predicts hospitalisation and death in patients with heart failure.

PubMed

Wu, Jia-Rong; DeWalt, Darren A; Baker, David W; Schillinger, Dean; Ruo, Bernice; Bibbins-Domingo, Kristen; Macabasco-O'Connell, Aurelia; Holmes, George M; Broucksou, Kimberly A; Erman, Brian; Hawk, Victoria; Cene, Crystal W; Jones, Christine DeLong; Pignone, Michael

2014-09-01

To determine whether a single-item self-report medication adherence question predicts hospitalisation and death in patients with heart failure. Poor medication adherence is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Having a simple means of identifying suboptimal medication adherence could help identify at-risk patients for interventions. We performed a prospective cohort study in 592 participants with heart failure within a four-site randomised trial. Self-report medication adherence was assessed at baseline using a single-item question: 'Over the past seven days, how many times did you miss a dose of any of your heart medication?' Participants who reported no missing doses were defined as fully adherent, and those missing more than one dose were considered less than fully adherent. The primary outcome was combined all-cause hospitalisation or death over one year and the secondary endpoint was heart failure hospitalisation. Outcomes were assessed with blinded chart reviews, and heart failure outcomes were determined by a blinded adjudication committee. We used negative binomial regression to examine the relationship between medication adherence and outcomes. Fifty-two percent of participants were 52% male, mean age was 61 years, and 31% were of New York Heart Association class III/IV at enrolment; 72% of participants reported full adherence to their heart medicine at baseline. Participants with full medication adherence had a lower rate of all-cause hospitalisation and death (0·71 events/year) compared with those with any nonadherence (0·86 events/year): adjusted-for-site incidence rate ratio was 0·83, fully adjusted incidence rate ratio 0·68. Incidence rate ratios were similar for heart failure hospitalisations. A single medication adherence question at baseline predicts hospitalisation and death over one year in heart failure patients. Medication adherence is associated with all-cause and heart failure-related hospitalisation and death in heart

Predicting the Probability of Failure of Cementitious Sewer Pipes Using Stochastic Finite Element Method

PubMed Central

Alani, Amir M.; Faramarzi, Asaad

2015-01-01

In this paper, a stochastic finite element method (SFEM) is employed to investigate the probability of failure of cementitious buried sewer pipes subjected to combined effect of corrosion and stresses. A non-linear time-dependant model is used to determine the extent of concrete corrosion. Using the SFEM, the effects of different random variables, including loads, pipe material, and corrosion on the remaining safe life of the cementitious sewer pipes are explored. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate the merit of the proposed SFEM in evaluating the effects of the contributing parameters upon the probability of failure of cementitious sewer pipes. The developed SFEM offers many advantages over traditional probabilistic techniques since it does not use any empirical equations in order to determine failure of pipes. The results of the SFEM can help the concerning industry (e.g., water companies) to better plan their resources by providing accurate prediction for the remaining safe life of cementitious sewer pipes. PMID:26068092

A relation to predict the failure of materials and potential application to volcanic eruptions and landslides

PubMed Central

Hao, Shengwang; Liu, Chao; Lu, Chunsheng; Elsworth, Derek

2016-01-01

A theoretical explanation of a time-to-failure relation is presented, with this relationship then used to describe the failure of materials. This provides the potential to predict timing (tf − t) immediately before failure by extrapolating the trajectory as it asymptotes to zero with no need to fit unknown exponents as previously proposed in critical power law behaviors. This generalized relation is verified by comparison with approaches to criticality for volcanic eruptions and creep failure. A new relation based on changes with stress is proposed as an alternative expression of Voight’s relation, which is widely used to describe the accelerating precursory signals before material failure and broadly applied to volcanic eruptions, landslides and other phenomena. The new generalized relation reduces to Voight’s relation if stress is limited to increase at a constant rate with time. This implies that the time-derivatives in Voight’s analysis may be a subset of a more general expression connecting stress derivatives, and thus provides a potential method for forecasting these events. PMID:27306851

Vertebral body spread in thoracolumbar burst fractures can predict posterior construct failure.

PubMed

De Iure, Federico; Lofrese, Giorgio; De Bonis, Pasquale; Cultrera, Francesco; Cappuccio, Michele; Battisti, Sofia

2018-06-01

The load sharing classification (LSC) laid foundations for a scoring system able to indicate which thoracolumbar fractures, after short-segment posterior-only fixations, would need longer instrumentations or additional anterior supports. We analyzed surgically treated thoracolumbar fractures, quantifying the vertebral body's fragment displacement with the aim of identifying a new parameter that could predict the posterior-only construct failure. This is a retrospective cohort study from a single institution. One hundred twenty-one consecutive patients were surgically treated for thoracolumbar burst fractures. Grade of kyphosis correction (GKC) expressed radiological outcome; Oswestry Disability Index and visual analog scale were considered. One hundred twenty-one consecutive patients who underwent posterior fixation for unstable thoracolumbar burst fractures were retrospectively evaluated clinically and radiologically. Supplementary anterior fixations were performed in 34 cases with posterior instrumentation failure, determined on clinic-radiological evidence or symptomatic loss of kyphosis correction. Segmental kyphosis angle and GKC were calculated according to the Cobb method. The displacement of fracture fragments was obtained from the mean of the adjacent end plate areas subtracted from the area enclosed by the maximum contour of vertebral fragmentation. The "spread" was derived from the ratio between this subtraction and the mean of the adjacent end plate areas. Analysis of variance, Mann-Whitney, and receiver operating characteristic were performed for statistical analysis. The authors report no conflict of interest concerning the materials or methods used in the present study or the findings specified in this paper. No funds or grants have been received for the present study. The spread revealed to be a helpful quantitative measurement of vertebral body fragment displacement, easily reproducible with the current computed tomography (CT) imaging technologies

Comparison of the Walz Nomogram and Presence of Secondary Circulating Prostate Cells for Predicting Early Biochemical Failure after Radical Prostatectomy for Prostate Cancer in Chilean Men.

PubMed

Murray, Nigel P; Reyes, Eduardo; Orellana, Nelson; Fuentealba, Cynthia; Jacob, Omar

2015-01-01

To determine the utility of secondary circulating prostate cells for predicting early biochemical failure after radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer and compare the results with the Walz nomagram. A single centre, prospective study of men with prostate cancer treated with radical prostatectomy between 2004 and 2014 was conducted, with registration of clinical-pathological details, total serum PSA pre-surgery, Gleason score, extracapsular extension, positive surgical margins, infiltration of lymph nodes, seminal vesicles and pathological stage. Secondary circulating prostate cells were obtained using differential gel centrifugation and assessed using standard immunocytochemistry with anti-PSA. Biochemical failure was defined as a PSA >0.2ng/ml, predictive values werecalculated using the Walz nomagram and CPC detection. A total of 326 men participated, with a median follow up of 5 years; 64 had biochemical failure within two years. Extracapsular extension, positive surgical margins, pathological stage, Gleason score ≥ 8, infiltration of seminal vesicles and lymph nodes were all associated with higher risk of biochemical failure. The discriminative value for the nomogram and circulating prostate cells was high (AUC >0.80), predictive values were higher for circulating prostate cell detection, with a negative predictive value of 99%, sensitivity of 96% and specificity of 75%. The nomagram had good predictive power to identify men with a high risk of biochemical failure within two years. The presence of circulating prostate cells had the same predictive power, with a higher sensitivity and negative predictive value. The presence of secondary circulating prostate cells identifies a group of men with a high risk of early biochemical failure. Those negative for secondary CPCs have a very low risk of early biochemical failure.

Predictive factors for the failure of endoscopic stent-in-stent self-expandable metallic stent placement to treat malignant hilar biliary obstruction.

PubMed

Sugimoto, Mitsuru; Takagi, Tadayuki; Suzuki, Rei; Konno, Naoki; Asama, Hiroyuki; Watanabe, Ko; Nakamura, Jun; Kikuchi, Hitomi; Waragai, Yuichi; Takasumi, Mika; Sato, Yuki; Hikichi, Takuto; Ohira, Hiromasa

2017-09-14

To investigate the factors predictive of failure when placing a second biliary self-expandable metallic stents (SEMSs). This study evaluated 65 patients with an unresectable malignant hilar biliary obstruction who were examined in our hospital. Sixty-two of these patients were recruited to the study and divided into two groups: the success group, which consisted of patients in whom a stent-in-stent SEMS had been placed successfully, and the failure group, which consisted of patients in whom the stent-in-stent SEMS had not been placed successfully. We compared the characteristics of the patients, the stricture state of their biliary ducts, and the implemented endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) procedures between the two groups. The angle between the target biliary duct stricture and the first implanted SEMS was significantly larger in the failure group than in the success group. There were significantly fewer wire or dilation devices (ERCP catheter, dilator, or balloon catheter) passing the first SEMS cell in the failure group than in the success group. The cut-off value of the angle predicting stent-in-stent SEMS placement failure was 49.7 degrees according to the ROC curve (sensitivity 91.7%, specificity 61.2%). Furthermore, the angle was significantly smaller in patients with wire or dilation devices passing the first SEMS cell than in patients without wire or dilation devices passing the first SEMS cell. A large angle was identified as a predictive factor for failure of stent-in-stent SEMS placement.

[Non-verbal communication of patients submitted to heart surgery: from awaking after anesthesia to extubation].

PubMed

Werlang, Sueli da Cruz; Azzolin, Karina; Moraes, Maria Antonieta; de Souza, Emiliane Nogueira

2008-12-01

Preoperative orientation is an essential tool for patient's communication after surgery. This study had the objective of evaluating non-verbal communication of patients submitted to cardiac surgery from the time of awaking from anesthesia until extubation, after having received preoperative orientation by nurses. A quantitative cross-sectional study was developed in a reference hospital of the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, from March to July 2006. Data were collected in the pre and post operative periods. A questionnaire to evaluate non-verbal communication on awaking from sedation was applied to a sample of 100 patients. Statistical analysis included Student, Wilcoxon, and Mann Whittney tests. Most of the patients responded satisfactorily to non-verbal communication strategies as instructed on the preoperative orientation. Thus, non-verbal communication based on preoperative orientation was helpful during the awaking period.

Development and validation of a prognostic score to predict mortality in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure.

PubMed

Jalan, Rajiv; Saliba, Faouzi; Pavesi, Marco; Amoros, Alex; Moreau, Richard; Ginès, Pere; Levesque, Eric; Durand, Francois; Angeli, Paolo; Caraceni, Paolo; Hopf, Corinna; Alessandria, Carlo; Rodriguez, Ezequiel; Solis-Muñoz, Pablo; Laleman, Wim; Trebicka, Jonel; Zeuzem, Stefan; Gustot, Thierry; Mookerjee, Rajeshwar; Elkrief, Laure; Soriano, German; Cordoba, Joan; Morando, Filippo; Gerbes, Alexander; Agarwal, Banwari; Samuel, Didier; Bernardi, Mauro; Arroyo, Vicente

2014-11-01

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a frequent syndrome (30% prevalence), characterized by acute decompensation of cirrhosis, organ failure(s) and high short-term mortality. This study develops and validates a specific prognostic score for ACLF patients. Data from 1349 patients included in the CANONIC study were used. First, a simplified organ function scoring system (CLIF Consortium Organ Failure score, CLIF-C OFs) was developed to diagnose ACLF using data from all patients. Subsequently, in 275 patients with ACLF, CLIF-C OFs and two other independent predictors of mortality (age and white blood cell count) were combined to develop a specific prognostic score for ACLF (CLIF Consortium ACLF score [CLIF-C ACLFs]). A concordance index (C-index) was used to compare the discrimination abilities of CLIF-C ACLF, MELD, MELD-sodium (MELD-Na), and Child-Pugh (CPs) scores. The CLIF-C ACLFs was validated in an external cohort and assessed for sequential use. The CLIF-C ACLFs showed a significantly higher predictive accuracy than MELDs, MELD-Nas, and CPs, reducing (19-28%) the corresponding prediction error rates at all main time points after ACLF diagnosis (28, 90, 180, and 365 days) in both the CANONIC and the external validation cohort. CLIF-C ACLFs computed at 48 h, 3-7 days, and 8-15 days after ACLF diagnosis predicted the 28-day mortality significantly better than at diagnosis. The CLIF-C ACLFs at ACLF diagnosis is superior to the MELDs and MELD-Nas in predicting mortality. The CLIF-C ACLFs is a clinically relevant, validated scoring system that can be used sequentially to stratify the risk of mortality in ACLF patients. Copyright © 2014 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting distant failure in early stage NSCLC treated with SBRT using clinical parameters.

PubMed

Zhou, Zhiguo; Folkert, Michael; Cannon, Nathan; Iyengar, Puneeth; Westover, Kenneth; Zhang, Yuanyuan; Choy, Hak; Timmerman, Robert; Yan, Jingsheng; Xie, Xian-J; Jiang, Steve; Wang, Jing

2016-06-01

The aim of this study is to predict early distant failure in early stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) using clinical parameters by machine learning algorithms. The dataset used in this work includes 81 early stage NSCLC patients with at least 6months of follow-up who underwent SBRT between 2006 and 2012 at a single institution. The clinical parameters (n=18) for each patient include demographic parameters, tumor characteristics, treatment fraction schemes, and pretreatment medications. Three predictive models were constructed based on different machine learning algorithms: (1) artificial neural network (ANN), (2) logistic regression (LR) and (3) support vector machine (SVM). Furthermore, to select an optimal clinical parameter set for the model construction, three strategies were adopted: (1) clonal selection algorithm (CSA) based selection strategy; (2) sequential forward selection (SFS) method; and (3) statistical analysis (SA) based strategy. 5-cross-validation is used to validate the performance of each predictive model. The accuracy was assessed by area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), sensitivity and specificity of the system was also evaluated. The AUCs for ANN, LR and SVM were 0.75, 0.73, and 0.80, respectively. The sensitivity values for ANN, LR and SVM were 71.2%, 72.9% and 83.1%, while the specificity values for ANN, LR and SVM were 59.1%, 63.6% and 63.6%, respectively. Meanwhile, the CSA based strategy outperformed SFS and SA in terms of AUC, sensitivity and specificity. Based on clinical parameters, the SVM with the CSA optimal parameter set selection strategy achieves better performance than other strategies for predicting distant failure in lung SBRT patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

COPD predicts mortality in HF: the Norwegian Heart Failure Registry.

PubMed

De Blois, Jonathan; Simard, Serge; Atar, Dan; Agewall, Stefan

2010-03-01

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and chronic heart failure (HF) are common clinical conditions that share tobacco as a risk factor. Our aim was to evaluate the prognostic impact of COPD on HF patients. The Norwegian Heart Failure Registry was used. The study included 4132 HF patients (COPD, n = 699) from 22 hospitals (mean follow-up, 13.3 months). COPD patients were older, more often smokers and diabetics, less often on beta-blockers and had a higher heart rate. They were more often in New York Heart Association (NYHA) Class III or IV (COPD, 63%; no COPD, 51%), although left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) distribution was similar. COPD independently predicted death (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.188; 95% CI: 1.015 to 1.391; P = 0.03) along with age, creatinine, NYHA Class III/IV (HR, 1.464; 95% CI: 1.286 to 1.667) and diabetes. beta-blockers at baseline were associated with improved survival in patients with LVEF < or =40% independently of COPD. COPD is associated with a poorer survival in HF patients. COPD patients are overrated in terms of NYHA class in comparison with patients with similar LVEF. Nonetheless, NYHA class remains the strongest predictor of death in these patients. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Health literacy and global cognitive function predict e-mail but not internet use in heart failure patients.

PubMed

Schprechman, Jared P; Gathright, Emily C; Goldstein, Carly M; Guerini, Kate A; Dolansky, Mary A; Redle, Joseph; Hughes, Joel W

2013-01-01

Background. The internet offers a potential for improving patient knowledge, and e-mail may be used in patient communication with providers. However, barriers to internet and e-mail use, such as low health literacy and cognitive impairment, may prevent patients from using technological resources. Purpose. We investigated whether health literacy, heart failure knowledge, and cognitive function were related to internet and e-mail use in older adults with heart failure (HF). Methods. Older adults (N = 119) with heart failure (69.84 ± 9.09 years) completed measures of health literacy, heart failure knowledge, cognitive functioning, and internet use in a cross-sectional study. Results. Internet and e-mail use were reported in 78.2% and 71.4% of this sample of patients with HF, respectively. Controlling for age and education, logistic regression analyses indicated that higher health literacy predicted e-mail (P < .05) but not internet use. Global cognitive function predicted e-mail (P < .05) but not internet use. Only 45% used the Internet to obtain information on HF and internet use was not associated with greater HF knowledge. Conclusions. The majority of HF patients use the internet and e-mail, but poor health literacy and cognitive impairment may prevent some patients from accessing these resources. Future studies that examine specific internet and email interventions to increase HF knowledge are needed.

Progressive failure methodologies for predicting residual strength and life of laminated composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harris, Charles E.; Allen, David H.; Obrien, T. Kevin

1991-01-01

Two progressive failure methodologies currently under development by the Mechanics of Materials Branch at NASA Langley Research Center are discussed. The damage tolerance/fail safety methodology developed by O'Brien is an engineering approach to ensuring adequate durability and damage tolerance by treating only delamination onset and the subsequent delamination accumulation through the laminate thickness. The continuum damage model developed by Allen and Harris employs continuum damage laws to predict laminate strength and life. The philosophy, mechanics framework, and current implementation status of each methodology are presented.

Acute Kidney Injury Enhances Outcome Prediction Ability of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Score in Critically Ill Patients

PubMed Central

Chang, Chih-Hsiang; Fan, Pei-Chun; Chang, Ming-Yang; Tian, Ya-Chung; Hung, Cheng-Chieh; Fang, Ji-Tseng; Yang, Chih-Wei; Chen, Yung-Chang

2014-01-01

Introduction Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common and serious complication in intensive care unit (ICU) patients and also often part of a multiple organ failure syndrome. The sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score is an excellent tool for assessing the extent of organ dysfunction in critically ill patients. This study aimed to evaluate the outcome prediction ability of SOFA and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) III score in ICU patients with AKI. Methods A total of 543 critically ill patients were admitted to the medical ICU of a tertiary-care hospital from July 2007 to June 2008. Demographic, clinical and laboratory variables were prospectively recorded for post hoc analysis as predictors of survival on the first day of ICU admission. Results One hundred and eighty-seven (34.4%) patients presented with AKI on the first day of ICU admission based on the risk of renal failure, injury to kidney, failure of kidney function, loss of kidney function, and end-stage renal failure (RIFLE) classification. Major causes of the ICU admissions involved respiratory failure (58%). Overall in-ICU mortality was 37.9% and the hospital mortality was 44.7%. The predictive accuracy for ICU mortality of SOFA (areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves: 0.815±0.032) was as good as APACHE III in the AKI group. However, cumulative survival rates at 6-month follow-up following hospital discharge differed significantly (p<0.001) for SOFA score ≤10 vs. ≥11 in these ICU patients with AKI. Conclusions For patients coexisting with AKI admitted to ICU, this work recommends application of SOFA by physicians to assess ICU mortality because of its practicality and low cost. A SOFA score of ≥ “11” on ICU day 1 should be considered an indicator of negative short-term outcome. PMID:25279844

Immediate postoperative tracheal extubation in a liver transplant recipient with encephalopathy and the Mayo end-stage liver disease score of 41: A CARE-compliant case report revealed meaningful challenge in recovery after surgery (ERAS) for liver transplantation.

PubMed

Li, Jianbo; Wang, Chengdi; Chen, Nan; Song, Jiulin; Sun, Yan; Yao, Qin; Yan, Lunan; Yang, Jiayin

2017-11-01

Immediate postoperative tracheal extubation (IPTE) is one of the most important subject in recovery after surgery (ERAS) for liver transplantation. However, the criteria for IPTE is not uniform at present. We reported a successful IPTE in a liver transplant recipient with encephalopathy and a high Mayo end-stage liver disease (MELD) score of 41, which beyond the so-called criteria reported in the literature. The patient was 48-year-old man, admitted in September 2016 for end-stage liver cirrhosis secondary to hepatitis B. End-stage liver cirrhosis secondary to hepatitis B with encephalopathy and a high MELD score of 41. He was involved in our ERAS project and was extubated at the end of the liver transplantation in the operating room. As a result, the patient was not reintubated and had an excellent postoperative recovery, staying in intensive care unit (ICU) for just 2 days and discharged home on day 10. We believed IPTE in liver transplant recipients with severe liver dysfunction is a meaningful challenge in ERAS for liver transplantation. Our case and literature review suggest 3 things: IPTE in liver transplantation is generally feasible and safe; the encephalopathy or high MELD score should not be the only limiting factor; and a more systematic predicting system for IPTE in liver transplantation should be addressed in future studies. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.

Erythropoietin in Predicting Prognosis in Patients with Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure.

PubMed

Alempijevic, Tamara; Zec, Simon; Nikolic, Vladimir; Veljkovic, Aleksandar; Milivojevic, Vladimir; Dopsaj, Violeta; Stankovic, Sanja; Milosavljevic, Tomica

2016-12-01

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is characterized by a rapid progression to multiple organ failure and is associated with a very high mortality rate of 50-90%. Novel therapies are being investigated such as Erythropoietin (EPO). The aim of this prospective cohort study was to analyse the value of EPO in predicting prognosis and determine which patients may benefit most from EPO therapy. According to the EASL-CLIF criteria, 104 consecutive patients were diagnosed with ACLF, and separated into two groups based on the type of insult: bleeding (Group A=31) or non-bleeding (Group B=73). In addition to a complete biochemical work-up and calculation of relevant prognostic scores, levels of EPO were measured on admission and correlated to the type of insult and final outcome. Fifteen patients from Group A (mean age 60.32+/-9.29 years) had a lethal outcome and higher values of EPO on admission (319.26+/-326.58 mIU/ml) (p<0.005), compared to the 37 patients from Group B (mean age 59.9+/-10.19 years) with EPO levels at admission of 29.88+/-34.6 mIU/mL. In Group B, a cut-off EPO value of 30.65 mIU/mL had a sensitivity of 87.5% and a specificity 57.4% in predicting lethal outcome with an AUROC of 0.823. In Group A, a cut-off value of 229.95 mlU/mL had a sensitivity and specificity of 53.3% and 92.7%, respectively. The AUROC for this cut-off was 0.847. Erythropoietin is superior to the standard prognostic scores in predicting 28-day mortality. Lower levels of EPO were detected in patients without bleeding as an insult indicating a possible therapeutic benefit in these patients.

Prediction and prevention of failure: an early intervention to assist at-risk medical students.

PubMed

Winston, Kalman A; van der Vleuten, Cees P M; Scherpbier, Albert J J A

2014-01-01

Consistent identification and prevention of failure for at-risk medical students is challenging, failing courses is costly to all stakeholders, and there is need for further research into duration, timing and structure of interventions to help students in difficulty. To verify the value of a new exam two weeks into medical school as a predictor of failure, and explore the requirements for a preventative intervention. Students who failed the two-week exam were invited to a series of large-group workshops and small-group follow-up meetings. Participants' subsequent exam performance was compared with non-participants. About 71% of students who performed poorly in the new exam subsequently failed a course. Attendance at the workshops made no difference to short- or long-term pass rates. Attendance at more than three follow-up small group sessions significantly improved pass rates two semesters later, and was influenced by teacher experience. Close similarity between predictor task and target task is important for accurate prediction of failure. Consideration should be given to dose effect and class size in the prevention of failure of at-risk students, and we recommend a systemic approach to intervention/remediation programmes, involving a whole semester of mandatory, weekly small group meetings with experienced teachers.

Predictive factors for the failure of endoscopic stent-in-stent self-expandable metallic stent placement to treat malignant hilar biliary obstruction

PubMed Central

Sugimoto, Mitsuru; Takagi, Tadayuki; Suzuki, Rei; Konno, Naoki; Asama, Hiroyuki; Watanabe, Ko; Nakamura, Jun; Kikuchi, Hitomi; Waragai, Yuichi; Takasumi, Mika; Sato, Yuki; Hikichi, Takuto; Ohira, Hiromasa

2017-01-01

AIM To investigate the factors predictive of failure when placing a second biliary self-expandable metallic stents (SEMSs). METHODS This study evaluated 65 patients with an unresectable malignant hilar biliary obstruction who were examined in our hospital. Sixty-two of these patients were recruited to the study and divided into two groups: the success group, which consisted of patients in whom a stent-in-stent SEMS had been placed successfully, and the failure group, which consisted of patients in whom the stent-in-stent SEMS had not been placed successfully. We compared the characteristics of the patients, the stricture state of their biliary ducts, and the implemented endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) procedures between the two groups. RESULTS The angle between the target biliary duct stricture and the first implanted SEMS was significantly larger in the failure group than in the success group. There were significantly fewer wire or dilation devices (ERCP catheter, dilator, or balloon catheter) passing the first SEMS cell in the failure group than in the success group. The cut-off value of the angle predicting stent-in-stent SEMS placement failure was 49.7 degrees according to the ROC curve (sensitivity 91.7%, specificity 61.2%). Furthermore, the angle was significantly smaller in patients with wire or dilation devices passing the first SEMS cell than in patients without wire or dilation devices passing the first SEMS cell. CONCLUSION A large angle was identified as a predictive factor for failure of stent-in-stent SEMS placement. PMID:28974893

Length of Barrett's segment predicts failure of eradication in radiofrequency ablation for Barrett's esophagus: a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Luckett, Tyler; Allamneni, Chaitanya; Cowley, Kevin; Eick, John; Gullick, Allison; Peter, Shajan

2018-05-21

We aim to investigate factors that may contribute to failure of eradication of dysplastic Barrett's Esophagus among patients undergoing radiofrequency ablation treatment. A retrospective review of patients undergoing radiofrequency ablation for treatment of Barrett's Esophagus was performed. Data analyzed included patient demographics, medical history, length of Barrett's Esophagus, number of radiofrequency ablation sessions, and histopathology. Subsets of patients achieving complete eradication were compared with those not achieving complete eradication. A total of 107 patients underwent radiofrequency ablation for Barrett's Esophagus, the majority white, overweight, and male. Before treatment, 63 patients had low-grade dysplasia, and 44 patients had high-grade dysplasia or carcinoma. Complete eradication was achieved in a majority of patients (57% for metaplasia, and 76.6% for dysplasia). Failure of eradication occurred in 15.7% of patients. The median number of radiofrequency ablation treatments in patients achieving complete eradication was 3 sessions, compared to 4 sessions for failure of eradication (p = 0.06). Barrett's esophagus length of more than 5 cm was predictive of failure of eradication (p < 0.001). Radiofrequency ablation for dysplastic Barrett's Esophagus is a proven and effective treatment modality, associated with a high rate of complete eradication. Our rates of eradication from a center starting an ablation program are comparable to previously published studies. Length of Barrett's segment > 5 cm was found to be predictive of failure of eradication in patients undergoing radiofrequency ablation.

Sugammadex rescue following prolonged rocuronium neuromuscular blockade with ‘recurarisation’ in a patient with severe renal failure

PubMed Central

Lobaz, Steven; Sammut, Mario; Damodaran, Anand

2013-01-01

We describe our experience of a 71-year-old patient with severe renal failure, who exhibited an unusually prolonged rocuronium-induced neuromuscular blockade (>4 h) and apparent recurarisation, following emergency rapid sequence induction (RSI). At the end of operation, 45 min post induction, train-of-four (TOF) testing had been 4/4 prior to wake up. No respiratory effort was seen 150 min postinduction, despite further neostigmine/glycopyrrolate and repeat TOF 4/4. The patient was resedated and transferred to the intensive care unit (ICU). At 180 min postinduction, fade was evident on TOF, suggestive of rocuronium reblockade. At 285 min, the patient was extubated safely following sugammadex administration and discharged uneventfully from the ICU. An important lesson to recognise is the potential for extremely prolonged neuromuscular blockade following rocuronium in patients with severe renal failure, particularly when using the higher doses (1.2 mg/kg) required for RSI, and that TOF in such cases may not be reliable in detecting residual blockade. PMID:23396837

Both high and low HbA1c predict incident heart failure in type 2 diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Parry, Helen M; Deshmukh, Harshal; Levin, Daniel; Van Zuydam, Natalie; Elder, Douglas H J; Morris, Andrew D; Struthers, Allan D; Palmer, Colin N A; Doney, Alex S F; Lang, Chim C

2015-03-01

Type 2 diabetes mellitus is an independent risk factor for heart failure development, but the relationship between incident heart failure and antecedent glycemia has not been evaluated. The Genetics of Diabetes Audit and Research in Tayside Study study holds data for 8683 individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Dispensed prescribing, hospital admission data, and echocardiography reports were linked to extract incident heart failure cases from December 1998 to August 2011. All available HbA1c measures until heart failure development or end of study were used to model HbA1c time-dependently. Individuals were observed from study enrolment until heart failure development or end of study. Proportional hazard regression calculated heart failure development risk associated with specific HbA1c ranges accounting for comorbidities associated with heart failure, including blood pressure, body mass index, and coronary artery disease. Seven hundred and one individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus (8%) developed heart failure during follow up (mean 5.5 years, ±2.8 years). Time-updated analysis with longitudinal HbA1c showed that both HbA1c <6% (hazard ratio =1.60; 95% confidence interval, 1.38-1.86; P value <0.0001) and HbA1c >10% (hazard ratio =1.80; 95% confidence interval, 1.60-2.16; P value <0.0001) were independently associated with the risk of heart failure. Both high and low HbA1c predicted heart failure development in our cohort, forming a U-shaped relationship. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

The Effect of Delamination on Damage Path and Failure Load Prediction for Notched Composite Laminates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Satyanarayana, Arunkumar; Bogert, Philip B.; Chunchu, Prasad B.

2007-01-01

The influence of delamination on the progressing damage path and initial failure load in composite laminates is investigated. Results are presented from a numerical and an experimental study of center-notched tensile-loaded coupons. The numerical study includes two approaches. The first approach considers only intralaminar (fiber breakage and matrix cracking) damage modes in calculating the progression of the damage path. In the second approach, the model is extended to consider the effect of interlaminar (delamination) damage modes in addition to the intralaminar damage modes. The intralaminar damage is modeled using progressive damage analysis (PDA) methodology implemented with the VUMAT subroutine in the ABAQUS finite element code. The interlaminar damage mode has been simulated using cohesive elements in ABAQUS. In the experimental study, 2-3 specimens each of two different stacking sequences of center-notched laminates are tensile loaded. The numerical results from the two different modeling approaches are compared with each other and the experimentally observed results for both laminate types. The comparisons reveal that the second modeling approach, where the delamination damage mode is included together with the intralaminar damage modes, better simulates the experimentally observed damage modes and damage paths, which were characterized by splitting failures perpendicular to the notch tips in one or more layers. Additionally, the inclusion of the delamination mode resulted in a better prediction of the loads at which the failure took place, which were higher than those predicted by the first modeling approach which did not include delaminations.

Failure Criteria for FRP Laminates in Plane Stress

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davila, Carlos G.; Camanho, Pedro P.

2003-01-01

A new set of six failure criteria for fiber reinforced polymer laminates is described. Derived from Dvorak's fracture mechanics analyses of cracked plies and from Puck's action plane concept, the physically-based criteria, denoted LaRC03, predict matrix and fiber failure accurately without requiring curve-fitting parameters. For matrix failure under transverse compression, the fracture plane is calculated by maximizing the Mohr-Coulomb effective stresses. A criterion for fiber kinking is obtained by calculating the fiber misalignment under load, and applying the matrix failure criterion in the coordinate frame of the misalignment. Fracture mechanics models of matrix cracks are used to develop a criterion for matrix in tension and to calculate the associated in-situ strengths. The LaRC03 criteria are applied to a few examples to predict failure load envelopes and to predict the failure mode for each region of the envelope. The analysis results are compared to the predictions using other available failure criteria and with experimental results. Predictions obtained with LaRC03 correlate well with the experimental results.

Progressive Failure Analysis Methodology for Laminated Composite Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sleight, David W.

1999-01-01

A progressive failure analysis method has been developed for predicting the failure of laminated composite structures under geometrically nonlinear deformations. The progressive failure analysis uses C(exp 1) shell elements based on classical lamination theory to calculate the in-plane stresses. Several failure criteria, including the maximum strain criterion, Hashin's criterion, and Christensen's criterion, are used to predict the failure mechanisms and several options are available to degrade the material properties after failures. The progressive failure analysis method is implemented in the COMET finite element analysis code and can predict the damage and response of laminated composite structures from initial loading to final failure. The different failure criteria and material degradation methods are compared and assessed by performing analyses of several laminated composite structures. Results from the progressive failure method indicate good correlation with the existing test data except in structural applications where interlaminar stresses are important which may cause failure mechanisms such as debonding or delaminations.

Official ERS/ATS clinical practice guidelines: noninvasive ventilation for acute respiratory failure

PubMed Central

Brochard, Laurent; Elliott, Mark W.; Hess, Dean; Hill, Nicholas S.; Navalesi, Paolo; Antonelli, Massimo; Brozek, Jan; Conti, Giorgio; Ferrer, Miquel; Guntupalli, Kalpalatha; Jaber, Samir; Keenan, Sean; Mancebo, Jordi; Mehta, Sangeeta; Raoof, Suhail

2017-01-01

Noninvasive mechanical ventilation (NIV) is widely used in the acute care setting for acute respiratory failure (ARF) across a variety of aetiologies. This document provides European Respiratory Society/American Thoracic Society recommendations for the clinical application of NIV based on the most current literature. The guideline committee was composed of clinicians, methodologists and experts in the field of NIV. The committee developed recommendations based on the GRADE (Grading, Recommendation, Assessment, Development and Evaluation) methodology for each actionable question. The GRADE Evidence to Decision framework in the guideline development tool was used to generate recommendations. A number of topics were addressed using technical summaries without recommendations and these are discussed in the supplementary material. This guideline committee developed recommendations for 11 actionable questions in a PICO (population–intervention–comparison–outcome) format, all addressing the use of NIV for various aetiologies of ARF. The specific conditions where recommendations were made include exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cardiogenic pulmonary oedema, de novo hypoxaemic respiratory failure, immunocompromised patients, chest trauma, palliation, post-operative care, weaning and post-extubation. This document summarises the current state of knowledge regarding the role of NIV in ARF. Evidence-based recommendations provide guidance to relevant stakeholders. PMID:28860265

Mortality prediction system for heart failure with orthogonal relief and dynamic radius means.

PubMed

Wang, Zhe; Yao, Lijuan; Li, Dongdong; Ruan, Tong; Liu, Min; Gao, Ju

2018-07-01

This paper constructs a mortality prediction system based on a real-world dataset. This mortality prediction system aims to predict mortality in heart failure (HF) patients. Effective mortality prediction can improve resources allocation and clinical outcomes, avoiding inappropriate overtreatment of low-mortality patients and discharging of high-mortality patients. This system covers three mortality prediction targets: prediction of in-hospital mortality, prediction of 30-day mortality and prediction of 1-year mortality. HF data are collected from the Shanghai Shuguang hospital. 10,203 in-patients records are extracted from encounters occurring between March 2009 and April 2016. The records involve 4682 patients, including 539 death cases. A feature selection method called Orthogonal Relief (OR) algorithm is first used to reduce the dimensionality. Then, a classification algorithm named Dynamic Radius Means (DRM) is proposed to predict the mortality in HF patients. The comparative experimental results demonstrate that mortality prediction system achieves high performance in all targets by DRM. It is noteworthy that the performance of in-hospital mortality prediction achieves 87.3% in AUC (35.07% improvement). Moreover, the AUC of 30-day and 1-year mortality prediction reach to 88.45% and 84.84%, respectively. Especially, the system could keep itself effective and not deteriorate when the dimension of samples is sharply reduced. The proposed system with its own method DRM can predict mortality in HF patients and achieve high performance in all three mortality targets. Furthermore, effective feature selection strategy can boost the system. This system shows its importance in real-world applications, assisting clinicians in HF treatment by providing crucial decision information. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[The Predictive Factors of Stent Failure in the Treatment of Malignant Extrinsc Ureteral Obstruction Using Internal Ureteral Stents].

PubMed

Matsuura, Hiroshi; Arase, Shigeki; Hori, Yasuhide; Tochigi, Hiromi

2017-12-01

In this study, we retrospectively reviewed the experiences at our single institute in the treatment of malignant extrinsic ureteral obstruction (MUO) using ureteral stents to investigate the clinical outcomes and the predictive factors of stent failure. In 52 ureters of 38 patients who had radiologically significant hydronephrosis due to MUO, internal ureteral stents (The BARD(R) INLAY(TM) ureteral stent set) were inserted. The median follow-up interval after the initial stent insertion was 124.5 days (4-1,120). Stent failure occurred in 8 ureters (15.4%) of the 7 patients. The median interval from the first stent insertion to stent failure was 88 days (1-468). A Cox regression multivariate analysis showed that the significant predictors of stent failure were bladder invasion. Based on the possibility of stent failure, the adaptation of the internal ureteral stent placement should be considered especially in a patient with MUO combined with bladder invasion.

Metabolomic does not predict response to cardiac resynchronization therapy in patients with heart failure.

PubMed

Padeletti, Luigi; Modesti, Pietro A; Cartei, Stella; Checchi, Luca; Ricciardi, Giuseppe; Pieragnolia, Paolo; Sacchi, Stefania; Padeletti, Margherita; Alterini, Brunetto; Pantaleo, Pietro; Hu, Xiaoyu; Tenori, Leonardo; Luchinat, Claudio

2014-04-01

Metabolomic, a systematic study of metabolites, may be a useful tool in understanding the pathological processes that underlie the occurrence and progression of a disease. We hypothesized that metabolomic would be helpful in assessing a specific pattern in heart failure patients, also according to the underlining causes and in defining, prior to device implantation, the responder and nonresponder patient to cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). In this prospective study, blood and urine samples were collected from 32 heart failure patients who underwent CRT. Clinical, electrocardiography and echocardiographic evaluation was performed in each patient before CRT and after 6 months of follow-up. Thirty-nine age and sex-matched healthy individuals were chosen as control group. For each sample, 1H-NMR spectra, Nuclear Overhauser Enhancement Spectroscopy, Carr-Purcell-Meiboom-Gill and diffusion edited spectra were measured. A different metabolomic fingerprint was demonstrated in heart failure patients compared to healthy controls with high accuracy level. Metabolomics fingerprint was similar between patients with ischemic and nonischemic dilated cardiomyopathy. At 6-month follow-up, metabolomic fingerprint was different from baseline. At follow-up, heart failure patients’ metabolomic fingerprint remained significantly different from that of healthy controls, and accuracy of cause discrimination remained low. Responders and nonresponders had a similar metabolic fingerprint at baseline and after 6 months of CRT. It is possible to identify a metabolomic fingerprint characterizing heart failure patients candidate to CRT, it is independent of the different causes of the disease and it is not predictive of the response to CRT.

Efficacy, Safety, and Usability of Remifentanil as Premedication for INSURE in Preterm Neonates.

PubMed

Audil, Hadiyah Y; Tse, Sara; Pezzano, Chad; Mitchell-van Steele, Amy; Pinheiro, Joaquim M B

2018-05-22

Background : We previously reported a 67% extubation failure with INSURE (Intubation, Surfactant, Extubation) using morphine as analgosedative premedication. Remifentanil, a rapid- and short-acting narcotic, might be ideal for INSURE, but efficacy and safety data for this indication are limited. Objectives : To assess whether remifentanil premedication increases extubation success rates compared with morphine, and to evaluate remifentanil's safety and usability in a teaching hospital context. Methods : Retrospective review of remifentanil orders for premedication, at a large teaching hospital neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). We compared INSURE failure rates (needing invasive ventilation after INSURE) with prior morphine-associated rates. Additionally, we surveyed NICU staff to identify usability and logistic issues with remifentanil. Results : 73 remifentanil doses were administered to 62 neonates (mean 31.6 ± 3.8 weeks' gestation). Extubation was successful in 88%, vs. 33% with morphine premedication ( p < 0.001). Significant adverse events included chest wall rigidity (4%), one case of cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) post-surfactant, naloxone reversal (5%), and notable transient desaturation (34%). Among 137 completed surveys, 57% indicated concerns, including delayed drug availability (median 1.1 h after order), rapid desaturations narrowing intubation timeframes and hindering trainee involvement, and difficulty with bag-mask ventilation after unsuccessful intubation attempts. Accordingly, 33% of ultimate intubators were attending neonatologists, versus 16% trainees. Conclusions : Remifentanil premedication was superior to morphine in allowing successful extubation, despite occasional chest wall rigidity and unfavorable conditions for trainees. We recommend direct supervision and INSURE protocols aimed at ensuring rapid intubation.

A Novel Risk Stratification to Predict Local-Regional Failures in Urothelial Carcinoma of the Bladder After Radical Cystectomy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baumann, Brian C.; Guzzo, Thomas J.; He Jiwei

2013-01-01

Purpose: Local-regional failures (LF) following radical cystectomy (RC) plus pelvic lymph node dissection (PLND) with or without chemotherapy for invasive urothelial bladder carcinoma are more common than previously reported. Adjuvant radiation therapy (RT) could reduce LF but currently has no defined role because of previously reported morbidity. Modern techniques with improved normal tissue sparing have rekindled interest in RT. We assessed the risk of LF and determined those factors that predict recurrence to facilitate patient selection for future adjuvant RT trials. Methods and Materials: From 1990-2008, 442 patients with urothelial bladder carcinoma at University of Pennsylvania were prospectively followed aftermore » RC plus PLND with or without chemotherapy with routine pelvic computed tomography (CT) or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). One hundred thirty (29%) patients received chemotherapy. LF was any pelvic failure detected before or within 3 months of distant failure. Competing risk analyses identified factors predicting increased LF risk. Results: On univariate analysis, pathologic stage {>=}pT3, <10 nodes removed, positive margins, positive nodes, hydronephrosis, lymphovascular invasion, and mixed histology significantly predicted LF; node density was marginally predictive, but use of chemotherapy, number of positive nodes, type of surgical diversion, age, gender, race, smoking history, and body mass index were not. On multivariate analysis, only stage {>=}pT3 and <10 nodes removed were significant independent LF predictors with hazard ratios of 3.17 and 2.37, respectively (P<.01). Analysis identified 3 patient subgroups with significantly different LF risks: low-risk ({<=}pT2), intermediate-risk ({>=}pT3 and {>=}10 nodes removed), and high-risk ({>=}pT3 and <10 nodes) with 5-year LF rates of 8%, 23%, and 42%, respectively (P<.01). Conclusions: This series using routine CT and MRI surveillance to detect LF confirms that such failures are relatively

A model for predicting high-temperature fatigue failure of a W/Cu composite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Verrilli, M. J.; Kim, Y.-S.; Gabb, T. P.

1991-01-01

The material studied, a tungsten-fiber-reinforced, copper-matrix composite, is a candidate material for rocket nozzle liner applications. It was shown that at high temperatures, fatigue cracks initiate and propagate inside the copper matrix through a process of initiation, growth, and coalescence of grain boundary cavities. The ductile tungsten fibers neck and rupture locally after the surrounding matrix fails, and complete failure of the composite then ensues. A simple fatigue life prediction model is presented for the tungsten/copper composite system.

NT-pro-BNP predicts worsening renal function in patients with chronic systolic heart failure.

PubMed

Pfister, R; Müller-Ehmsen, J; Hagemeister, J; Hellmich, M; Erdmann, E; Schneider, C A

2011-06-01

Worsening renal function (WRF) is frequently observed in patients with heart failure and is associated with worse outcome. The aim of this study was to examine the association of the cardiac serum marker N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP) and WRF. A total of 125 consecutive patients of a tertiary care outpatient clinic for heart failure prospectively underwent evaluation of renal function every 6 months. The association of baseline NT-pro-BNP with WRF was analysed during a follow up of 18 months. Twenty-eight (22.4%) patients developed WRF (increase in serum creatinine ≥0.3 mg/dL). Patients with WRF (2870 pg/mL, interquartile range (IQR) 1063-4765) had significantly higher baseline NT-pro-BNP values than patients without WRF (547 pg/mL, IQR 173-1454). The risk for WRF increased by 4.0 (95% CI 2.1-7.5) for each standard deviation of log NT-pro-BNP. In multivariable analysis including age, baseline renal function, ejection fraction, New York Heart Association class and diuretic dose, only NT-pro-BNP and diabetes were independent predictors of WRF. At a cut-off level of 696 pg/mL, NT-pro-BNP showed a sensitivity of 92.9% and a negative predictive value of 96.4% for WRF. NT-pro-BNP is a strong independent predictor of WRF within 18 months in patients with systolic heart failure with a high negative predictive value. Further studies are needed to evaluate reno-protective strategies in patients with elevated NT-pro-BNP. © 2011 The Authors. Internal Medicine Journal © 2011 Royal Australasian College of Physicians.

Sudden cardiac death and pump failure death prediction in chronic heart failure by combining ECG and clinical markers in an integrated risk model.

PubMed

Ramírez, Julia; Orini, Michele; Mincholé, Ana; Monasterio, Violeta; Cygankiewicz, Iwona; Bayés de Luna, Antonio; Martínez, Juan Pablo; Laguna, Pablo; Pueyo, Esther

2017-01-01

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) and pump failure death (PFD) are common endpoints in chronic heart failure (CHF) patients, but prevention strategies are different. Currently used tools to specifically predict these endpoints are limited. We developed risk models to specifically assess SCD and PFD risk in CHF by combining ECG markers and clinical variables. The relation of clinical and ECG markers with SCD and PFD risk was assessed in 597 patients enrolled in the MUSIC (MUerte Súbita en Insuficiencia Cardiaca) study. ECG indices included: turbulence slope (TS), reflecting autonomic dysfunction; T-wave alternans (TWA), reflecting ventricular repolarization instability; and T-peak-to-end restitution (ΔαTpe) and T-wave morphology restitution (TMR), both reflecting changes in dispersion of repolarization due to heart rate changes. Standard clinical indices were also included. The indices with the greatest SCD prognostic impact were gender, New York Heart Association (NYHA) class, left ventricular ejection fraction, TWA, ΔαTpe and TMR. For PFD, the indices were diabetes, NYHA class, ΔαTpe and TS. Using a model with only clinical variables, the hazard ratios (HRs) for SCD and PFD for patients in the high-risk group (fifth quintile of risk score) with respect to patients in the low-risk group (first and second quintiles of risk score) were both greater than 4. HRs for SCD and PFD increased to 9 and 11 when using a model including only ECG markers, and to 14 and 13, when combining clinical and ECG markers. The inclusion of ECG markers capturing complementary pro-arrhythmic and pump failure mechanisms into risk models based only on standard clinical variables substantially improves prediction of SCD and PFD in CHF patients.

Management of adult-onset methylmalonic acidemia with hypotonia and acute respiratory failure: A case report.

PubMed

Zhao, Zhanqi; Chu, Chan-Ching; Chang, Mei-Yun; Chang, Hao-Tai; Hsu, Yeong-Long

2018-06-01

Methylmalonic acidemia (MMA) is an autosomal recessive disease of organic acidemia. We report a 26-year-old male who presented with metabolic acidosis, acute renal failure required hemodialysis and acute respiratory failure required mechanical ventilation support. Progressive hypotonia of muscles made weaning from mechanical ventilator difficult. High level of serum methylmalonic acid and the mut genotype sequences confirmed the diagnosis of this adult-onset MMA. Two mut genotype sequences were found by analyzing all coding exons and exon-intron junctions. One genotype was well documented (Exon 6 Mutation, c. 1280G>A. p. G427D, heterozygous). The other mut genotype sequence had never been reported elsewhere (Intron 6 Novel, c. 1333-13_c. 1333-8delTTTTTC, heterozygous). Diet modification, medication, regular hemodialysis and physical rehabilitation. Weaning strategy adjusted with help of electrical impedance tomography. The muscle power of the patient gradually recovered. Extubation of the patient was successful and he was discharged without oxygen required. This case gives us the lesson that MMA can be newly diagnosed in adult patient. A new mut genotype sequence was discovered. The use of electrical impedance tomography to select a suitable method for inspiratory muscle training was possible and useful.

Deformation, Failure, and Fatigue Life of SiC/Ti-15-3 Laminates Accurately Predicted by MAC/GMC

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bednarcyk, Brett A.; Arnold, Steven M.

2002-01-01

NASA Glenn Research Center's Micromechanics Analysis Code with Generalized Method of Cells (MAC/GMC) (ref.1) has been extended to enable fully coupled macro-micro deformation, failure, and fatigue life predictions for advanced metal matrix, ceramic matrix, and polymer matrix composites. Because of the multiaxial nature of the code's underlying micromechanics model, GMC--which allows the incorporation of complex local inelastic constitutive models--MAC/GMC finds its most important application in metal matrix composites, like the SiC/Ti-15-3 composite examined here. Furthermore, since GMC predicts the microscale fields within each constituent of the composite material, submodels for local effects such as fiber breakage, interfacial debonding, and matrix fatigue damage can and have been built into MAC/GMC. The present application of MAC/GMC highlights the combination of these features, which has enabled the accurate modeling of the deformation, failure, and life of titanium matrix composites.

Noninvasive Positive Pressure Ventilation for Acute Respiratory Failure Patients With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD)

PubMed Central

McCurdy, BR

2012-01-01

group, but the results were only significant in 1 study (13% vs. 23.1%, P = 0.29; and 6.4% vs. 34.6%; P < 0.001). GRADE: very low Other Outcomes One of the studies followed patients for 12 months. At the end of follow-up, patients in the NPPV group had a significantly lower rate of needing de novo oxygen supplementation at home. In addition, the IMV group experienced significant increases in functional limitations due to COPD, while no increase was seen in the NPPV group. Finally, no significant differences were observed for hospital readmissions, ICU readmissions, and patients with an open tracheotomy, between the NPPV and IMV groups. NPPV for Weaning COPD Patients From IMV A total of 80 participants were included in the 2 RCTs; the sample sizes of the studies were 30 and 50 patients. The mean age of the participants ranged from 58 to 69 years of age. Based on either the GOLD COPD stage criteria or the mean percent predicted FEV1, both studies included patients with very severe COPD. Both studies also included patients with very severe respiratory failure (mean pH of the study populations was less than 7.23). Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients receiving IMV were enrolled in the study if they failed a T-piece weaning trial (spontaneous breathing test), so they could not be directly extubated from IMV. Both studies were conducted in the ICU. Patients in the NPPV group received weaning using either BiPAP or pressure support ventilation NPPV through a face mask, and patients in the IMV weaning group received pressure support ventilation. In both cases, weaning was achieved by tapering the ventilation level. The individual quality of the studies ranged. Common methodological problems included unclear randomization methods and allocation concealment, lack of blinding, and small sample size. Mortality Both studies reported mortality as an outcome. The pooled results showed a significant reduction in ICU mortality in the NPPV group compared with the IMV group (RR

The role of microstructure and phase distribution in the failure mechanisms and life prediction model for PSZ coatings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sisson, R. D., Jr.; Sone, Ichiro; Biederman, R. R.

1985-01-01

Partially Stabilized Zirconia (PSZ) may become widely used for Thermal Barrier Coatings (TBC). Failure of these coatings can occur due to thermal fatigue in oxidizing atmospheres. The failure is due to the strains that develop due to thermal gradients, differences in thermal expansion coefficients, and oxidation of the bond coating. The role of microstructure and the cubic, tetragonal, and monoclinic phase distribution in the strain development and subsequent failure will be discussed. An X-ray diffraction technique for accurate determination of the fraction of each phase in PSZ will be applied to understanding the phase transformations and strain development. These results will be discussed in terms of developing a model for life prediction in PSZ coatings during thermal cycling.

Reducing unscheduled plant maintenance delays -- Field test of a new method to predict electric motor failure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Homce, G.T.; Thalimer, J.R.

1996-05-01

Most electric motor predictive maintenance methods have drawbacks that limit their effectiveness in the mining environment. The US Bureau of Miens (USBM) is developing an alternative approach to detect winding insulation breakdown in advance of complete motor failure. In order to evaluate the analysis algorithms necessary for this approach, the USBM has designed and installed a system to monitor 120 electric motors in a coal preparation plant. The computer-based experimental system continuously gathers, stores, and analyzes electrical parameters for each motor. The results are then correlated to data from conventional motor-maintenance methods and in-service failures to determine if the analysismore » algorithms can detect signs of insulation deterioration and impending failure. This paper explains the on-line testing approach used in this research, and describes monitoring system design and implementation. At this writing data analysis is underway, but conclusive results are not yet available.« less

Predicting the velocity and azimuth of fragments generated by the range destruction or random failure of rocket casings and tankage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eck, M.; Mukunda, M.

The proliferation of space vehicle launch sites and the projected utilization of these facilities portends an increase in the number of on-pad, ascent, and on-orbit solid-rocket motor (SRM) casings and liquid-rocket tanks which will randomly fail or will fail from range destruct actions. Beyond the obvious safety implications, these failures may have serious resource implications for mission system and facility planners. SRM-casing failures and liquid-rocket tankage failures result in the generation of large, high velocity fragments which may be serious threats to the safety of launch support personnel if proper bunkers and exclusion areas are not provided. In addition, these fragments may be indirect threats to the general public's safety if they encounter hazardous spacecraft payloads which have not been designed to withstand shrapnel of this caliber. They may also become threats to other spacecraft if, by failing on-orbit, they add to the ever increasing space-junk collision cross-section. Most prior attempts to assess the velocity of fragments from failed SRM casings have simply assigned the available chamber impulse to available casing and fuel mass and solved the resulting momentum balance for velocity. This method may predict a fragment velocity which is high or low by a factor of two depending on the ratio of fuel to casing mass extant at the time of failure. Recognizing the limitations of existing methods, the authors devised an analytical approach which properly partitions the available impulse to each major system-mass component. This approach uses the Physics International developed PISCES code to couple the forces generated by an Eulerian modeled gas flow field to a Lagrangian modeled fuel and casing system. The details of a predictive analytical modeling process as well as the development of normalized relations for momentum partition as a function of SRM burn time and initial geometry are discussed in this paper. Methods for applying similar modeling

Impact of the Occlusion Duration on the Performance of J-CTO Score in Predicting Failure of Percutaneous Coronary Intervention for Chronic Total Occlusion.

PubMed

de Castro-Filho, Antonio; Lamas, Edgar Stroppa; Meneguz-Moreno, Rafael A; Staico, Rodolfo; Siqueira, Dimytri; Costa, Ricardo A; Braga, Sergio N; Costa, J Ribamar; Chamié, Daniel; Abizaid, Alexandre

2017-06-01

The present study examined the association between Multicenter CTO Registry in Japan (J-CTO) score in predicting failure of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) correlating with the estimated duration of chronic total occlusion (CTO). The J-CTO score does not incorporate estimated duration of the occlusion. This was an observational retrospective study that involved all consecutive procedures performed at a single tertiary-care cardiology center between January 2009 and December 2014. A total of 174 patients, median age 59.5 years (interquartile range [IQR], 53-65 years), undergoing CTO-PCI were included. The median estimated occlusion duration was 7.5 months (IQR, 4.0-12.0 months). The lesions were classified as easy (score = 0), intermediate (score = 1), difficult (score = 2), and very difficult (score ≥3) in 51.1%, 33.9%, 9.2%, and 5.7% of the patients, respectively. Failure rate significantly increased with higher J-CTO score (7.9%, 20.3%, 50.0%, and 70.0% in groups with J-CTO scores of 0, 1, 2, and ≥3, respectively; P<.001). There was no significant difference in success rate according to estimated duration of occlusion (P=.63). Indeed, J-CTO score predicted failure of CTO-PCI independently of the estimated occlusion duration (P=.24). Areas under receiver-operating characteristic curves were computed and it was observed that for each occlusion time period, the discriminatory capacity of the J-CTO score in predicting CTO-PCI failure was good, with a C-statistic >0.70. The estimated duration of occlusion had no influence on the J-CTO score performance in predicting failure of PCI in CTO lesions. The probability of failure was mainly determined by grade of lesion complexity.

Limited improvement of incorporating primary circulating prostate cells with the CAPRA score to predict biochemical failure-free outcome of radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer.

PubMed

Murray, Nigel P; Aedo, Socrates; Fuentealba, Cynthia; Jacob, Omar; Reyes, Eduardo; Novoa, Camilo; Orellana, Sebastian; Orellana, Nelson

2016-10-01

To establish a prediction model for early biochemical failure based on the Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (CAPRA) score, the presence or absence of primary circulating prostate cells (CPC) and the number of primary CPC (nCPC)/8ml blood sample is detected before surgery. A prospective single-center study of men who underwent radical prostatectomy as monotherapy for prostate cancer. Clinical-pathological findings were used to calculate the CAPRA score. Before surgery blood was taken for CPC detection, mononuclear cells were obtained using differential gel centrifugation, and CPCs identified using immunocytochemistry. A CPC was defined as a cell expressing prostate-specific antigen and P504S, and the presence or absence of CPCs and the number of cells detected/8ml blood sample was registered. Patients were followed up for up to 5 years; biochemical failure was defined as a prostate-specific antigen>0.2ng/ml. The validity of the CAPRA score was calibrated using partial validation, and the fractional polynomial Cox proportional hazard regression was used to build 3 models, which underwent a decision analysis curve to determine the predictive value of the 3 models with respect to biochemical failure. A total of 267 men participated, mean age 65.80 years, and after 5 years of follow-up the biochemical-free survival was 67.42%. The model using CAPRA score showed a hazards ratio (HR) of 5.76 between low and high-risk groups, that of CPC with a HR of 26.84 between positive and negative groups, and the combined model showed a HR of 4.16 for CAPRA score and 19.93 for CPC. Using the continuous variable nCPC, there was no improvement in the predictive value of the model compared with the model using a positive-negative result of CPC detection. The combined CAPRA-nCPC model showed an improvement of the predictive performance for biochemical failure using the Harrell׳s C concordance test and a net benefit on DCA in comparison with either model used separately. The use of

Predicting failure: acoustic emission of berlinite under compression.

PubMed

Nataf, Guillaume F; Castillo-Villa, Pedro O; Sellappan, Pathikumar; Kriven, Waltraud M; Vives, Eduard; Planes, Antoni; Salje, Ekhard K H

2014-07-09

Acoustic emission has been measured and statistical characteristics analyzed during the stress-induced collapse of porous berlinite, AlPO4, containing up to 50 vol% porosity. Stress collapse occurs in a series of individual events (avalanches), and each avalanche leads to a jerk in sample compression with corresponding acoustic emission (AE) signals. The distribution of AE avalanche energies can be approximately described by a power law p(E)dE = E(-ε)dE (ε ~ 1.8) over a large stress interval. We observed several collapse mechanisms whereby less porous minerals show the superposition of independent jerks, which were not related to the major collapse at the failure stress. In highly porous berlinite (40% and 50%) an increase of energy emission occurred near the failure point. In contrast, the less porous samples did not show such an increase in energy emission. Instead, in the near vicinity of the main failure point they showed a reduction in the energy exponent to ~ 1.4, which is consistent with the value reported for compressed porous systems displaying critical behavior. This suggests that a critical avalanche regime with a lack of precursor events occurs. In this case, all preceding large events were 'false alarms' and unrelated to the main failure event. Our results identify a method to use pico-seismicity detection of foreshocks to warn of mine collapse before the main failure (the collapse) occurs, which can be applied to highly porous materials only.

Bulbar impairment score predicts noninvasive volume-cycled ventilation failure during an acute lower respiratory tract infection in ALS.

PubMed

Servera, Emilio; Sancho, Jesús; Bañuls, Pilar; Marín, Julio

2015-11-15

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) patients can suffer episodes of lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI) leading to an acute respiratory failure (ARF) requiring noninvasive ventilation (NIV). To determine whether clinical or functional parameters can predict noninvasive management failure during LRTI causing ARF in ALS. A prospective study involving all ALS patients with ARF requiring NIV in a Respiratory Care Unit. NIV was provided with volume-cycled ventilators. 63 ALS patients were included (APACHE II: 14.93±3.56, Norris bulbar subscore (NBS): 18.78±9.68, ALSFRS-R: 19.90±6.98, %FVC: 40.01±18.07%, MIC: 1.62±0.74L, PCF 2.51±1.15L/s, PImax -34.90±19.44cmH2O, PEmax 51.20±28.84cmH2O). In 73.0% of patients NIV was successful in averting death or endotracheal intubation. Differences were found between the success and failure in the NBS (22.08±6.15 vs 8.66±3.39, p<0.001), ALSFRS (22.08±6.11 vs 12.71±4.39, p<0.001), PCFMI-E (3.85±0.77 vs 2.81±0.91L/s, p=0.007) and ALS onset (spinal/bulbar 33/13 vs 7/10, p=0.03). The predictor of NIV failure was the NBS (OR 0.53, 95% CI 0.31-0.92, p 0.002) with a cut-off point of 12 (S 0.93; E 0.97; PPV 0.76; NPV 0.97). NBS can predict noninvasive management failure during LRTI in ALS. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Failure Predictions of Out-of-Autoclave Sandwich Joints with Delaminations under Flexure Loads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nordendale, Nikolas; Goyal, Vinay; Lundgren, Eric; Patel, Dhruv; Farrokh, Babak; Jones, Justin; Fischetti, Grace; Segal, Kenneth

2015-01-01

An analysis and a test program was conducted to investigate the damage tolerance of composite sandwich joints. The joints contained a single circular delamination between the face-sheet and the doubler. The coupons were fabricated through out-of-autoclave (OOA) processes, a technology NASA is investigating for joining large composite sections. The four-point bend flexure test was used to induce compression loading into the side of the joint where the delamination was placed. The compression side was chosen since it tends to be one of the most critical loads in launch vehicles. Autoclave cure was used to manufacture the composite sandwich sections, while the doubler was co-bonded onto the sandwich face-sheet using an OOA process after sandwich panels were cured. A building block approach was adopted to characterize the mechanical properties of the joint material, including the fracture toughness between the doubler and facesheet. Twelve four-point-bend samples were tested, six in the sandwich core ribbon orientation and six in sandwich core cross-ribbon direction. Analysis predicted failure initiation and propagation at the pre-delaminated location, consistent with experimental observations. A building block approach using fracture analyses methods predicted failure loads in close agreement with tests. This investigation demonstrated a small strength reduction due to a flaw of significant size compared to the width of the sample. Therefore, concerns of bonding an OOA material to an in-autoclave material was mitigated for the geometries, materials, and load configurations considered.

Failure Predictions of Out-of-Autoclave Sandwich Joints with Delaminations Under Flexure Loads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nordendale, Nikolas A.; Goyal, Vinay K.; Lundgren, Eric C.; Patel, Dhruv N.; Farrokh, Babak; Jones, Justin; Fischetti, Grace; Segal, Kenneth N.

2015-01-01

An analysis and a test program was conducted to investigate the damage tolerance of composite sandwich joints. The joints contained a single circular delamination between the face-sheet and the doubler. The coupons were fabricated through out-of-autoclave (OOA) processes, a technology NASA is investigating for joining large composite sections. The four-point bend flexure test was used to induce compression loading into the side of the joint where the delamination was placed. The compression side was chosen since it tends to be one of the most critical loads in launch vehicles. Autoclave cure was used to manufacture the composite sandwich sections, while the doubler was co-bonded onto the sandwich face-sheet using an OOA process after sandwich panels were cured. A building block approach was adopted to characterize the mechanical properties of the joint material, including the fracture toughness between the doubler and face-sheet. Twelve four-point-bend samples were tested, six in the sandwich core ribbon orientation and six in sandwich core cross-ribbon direction. Analysis predicted failure initiation and propagation at the pre-delaminated location, consistent with experimental observations. A building block approach using fracture analyses methods predicted failure loads in close agreement with tests. This investigation demonstrated a small strength reduction due to a flaw of significant size compared to the width of the sample. Therefore, concerns of bonding an OOA material to an in-autoclave material was mitigated for the geometries, materials, and load configurations considered.

Failure Predictions of Out-of-Autoclave Sandwich Joints with Delaminations Under Flexure Loads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nordendale, Nikolas; Goyal, Vinay; Lundgren, Eric; Patel, Dhruv; Farrokh, Babak; Jones, Justin; Fischetti, Grace; Segal, Kenneth

2015-01-01

An analysis and a test program was conducted to investigate the damage tolerance of composite sandwich joints. The joints contained a single circular delamination between the face-sheet and the doubler. The coupons were fabricated through out-of-autoclave (OOA) processes, a technology NASA is investigating for joining large composite sections. The four-point bend flexure test was used to induce compression loading into the side of the joint where the delamination was placed. The compression side was chosen since it tends to be one of the most critical loads in launch vehicles. Autoclave cure was used to manufacture the composite sandwich sections, while the doubler was co-bonded onto the sandwich face-sheet using an OOA process after sandwich panels were cured. A building block approach was adopted to characterize the mechanical properties of the joint material, including the fracture toughness between the doubler and face-sheet. Twelve four-point-bend samples were tested, six in the sandwich core ribbon orientation and six in sandwich core cross-ribbon direction. Analysis predicted failure initiation and propagation at the pre-delaminated location, consistent with experimental observations. Fracture analyses methods predicted failure loads in close agreement with tests. This investigation demonstrated a strength reduction of 10 percent due to a flaw of significant size compared to the width of the sample. Therefore, concerns of bonding an OOA material to an in-autoclave material was mitigated for the geometries, materials, and load configurations considered.

How to Predict Oral Rehydration Failure in Children With Gastroenteritis.

PubMed

Geurts, Dorien; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Moll, Henriëtte; Oostenbrink, Rianne

2017-11-01

Oral rehydration is the standard in most current guidelines for young children with acute gastroenteritis (AGE). Failure of oral rehydration can complicate the disease course, leading to morbidity due to severe dehydration. We aimed to identify prognostic factors of oral rehydration failure in children with AGE. A prospective, observational study was performed at the Emergency department, Erasmus Medical Centre, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 2010-2012, including 802 previously healthy children, ages 1 month to 5 years with AGE. Failure of oral rehydration was defined by secondary rehydration by a nasogastric tube, or hospitalization or revisit for dehydration within 72 hours after initial emergency department visit. We observed 167 (21%) failures of oral rehydration in a population of 802 children with AGE (median 1.03 years old, interquartile range 0.4-2.1; 60% boys). In multivariate logistic regression analysis, independent predictors for failure of oral rehydration were a higher Manchester Triage System urgency level, abnormal capillary refill time, and a higher clinical dehydration scale score. Early recognition of young children with AGE at risk of failure of oral rehydration therapy is important, as emphasized by the 21% therapy failure in our population. Associated with oral rehydration failure are higher Manchester Triage System urgency level, abnormal capillary refill time, and a higher clinical dehydration scale score.

Sudden cardiac death and pump failure death prediction in chronic heart failure by combining ECG and clinical markers in an integrated risk model

PubMed Central

Orini, Michele; Mincholé, Ana; Monasterio, Violeta; Cygankiewicz, Iwona; Bayés de Luna, Antonio; Martínez, Juan Pablo

2017-01-01

Background Sudden cardiac death (SCD) and pump failure death (PFD) are common endpoints in chronic heart failure (CHF) patients, but prevention strategies are different. Currently used tools to specifically predict these endpoints are limited. We developed risk models to specifically assess SCD and PFD risk in CHF by combining ECG markers and clinical variables. Methods The relation of clinical and ECG markers with SCD and PFD risk was assessed in 597 patients enrolled in the MUSIC (MUerte Súbita en Insuficiencia Cardiaca) study. ECG indices included: turbulence slope (TS), reflecting autonomic dysfunction; T-wave alternans (TWA), reflecting ventricular repolarization instability; and T-peak-to-end restitution (ΔαTpe) and T-wave morphology restitution (TMR), both reflecting changes in dispersion of repolarization due to heart rate changes. Standard clinical indices were also included. Results The indices with the greatest SCD prognostic impact were gender, New York Heart Association (NYHA) class, left ventricular ejection fraction, TWA, ΔαTpe and TMR. For PFD, the indices were diabetes, NYHA class, ΔαTpe and TS. Using a model with only clinical variables, the hazard ratios (HRs) for SCD and PFD for patients in the high-risk group (fifth quintile of risk score) with respect to patients in the low-risk group (first and second quintiles of risk score) were both greater than 4. HRs for SCD and PFD increased to 9 and 11 when using a model including only ECG markers, and to 14 and 13, when combining clinical and ECG markers. Conclusion The inclusion of ECG markers capturing complementary pro-arrhythmic and pump failure mechanisms into risk models based only on standard clinical variables substantially improves prediction of SCD and PFD in CHF patients. PMID:29020031

Using methods from the data mining and machine learning literature for disease classification and prediction: A case study examining classification of heart failure sub-types

PubMed Central

Austin, Peter C.; Tu, Jack V.; Ho, Jennifer E.; Levy, Daniel; Lee, Douglas S.

2014-01-01

Objective Physicians classify patients into those with or without a specific disease. Furthermore, there is often interest in classifying patients according to disease etiology or subtype. Classification trees are frequently used to classify patients according to the presence or absence of a disease. However, classification trees can suffer from limited accuracy. In the data-mining and machine learning literature, alternate classification schemes have been developed. These include bootstrap aggregation (bagging), boosting, random forests, and support vector machines. Study design and Setting We compared the performance of these classification methods with those of conventional classification trees to classify patients with heart failure according to the following sub-types: heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFPEF) vs. heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFREF). We also compared the ability of these methods to predict the probability of the presence of HFPEF with that of conventional logistic regression. Results We found that modern, flexible tree-based methods from the data mining literature offer substantial improvement in prediction and classification of heart failure sub-type compared to conventional classification and regression trees. However, conventional logistic regression had superior performance for predicting the probability of the presence of HFPEF compared to the methods proposed in the data mining literature. Conclusion The use of tree-based methods offers superior performance over conventional classification and regression trees for predicting and classifying heart failure subtypes in a population-based sample of patients from Ontario. However, these methods do not offer substantial improvements over logistic regression for predicting the presence of HFPEF. PMID:23384592

Retrograde pyelography predicts retrograde ureteral stenting failure and reduces unnecessary stenting trials in patients with advanced non-urological malignant ureteral obstruction

PubMed Central

Kim, Sung Han; Park, Boram; Joo, Jungnam; Joung, Jae Young; Seo, Ho Kyung; Chung, Jinsoo; Lee, Kang Hyun

2017-01-01

Objective To evaluate predictive factors for retrograde ureteral stent failure in patients with non-urological malignant ureteral obstruction. Materials and methods Between 2005 and 2014, medical records of 284 malignant ureteral obstruction patients with 712 retrograde ureteral stent trials including 63 (22.2%) having bilateral malignant ureteral obstruction were retrospectively reviewed. Retrograde ureteral stent failure was defined as the inability to place ureteral stents by cystoscopy, recurrent stent obstruction within one month, or non-relief of azotemia within one week from the prior retrograde ureteral stent. The clinicopathological parameters and first retrograde pyelographic findings were analyzed to investigate the predictive factors for retrograde ureteral stent failure and conversion to percutaneous nephrostomy in multivariate analysis with a statistical significance of p < 0.05. Results Retrograde ureteral stent failure was detected in 14.1% of patients. The mean number of retrograde ureteral stent placements and indwelling duration of the ureteral stents were 2.5 ± 2.6 times and 8.6 ± 4.0 months, respectively. Multivariate analyses identified several specific RGP findings as significant predictive factors for retrograde ureteral stent failure (p < 0.05). The significant retrograde pyelographic findings included grade 4 hydronephrosis (hazard ratio 4.10, 95% confidence interval 1.39–12.09), irreversible ureteral kinking (hazard ratio 2.72, confidence interval 1.03–7.18), presence of bladder invasion (hazard ratio 4.78, confidence interval 1.81–12.63), and multiple lesions of ureteral stricture (hazard ratio 3.46, confidence interval 1.35–8.83) (p < 0.05). Conclusion Retrograde pyelography might prevent unnecessary and ineffective retrograde ureteral stent trials in patients with advanced non-urological malignant ureteral obstruction. PMID:28931043

Microseismic Signature of Magma Failure: Testing Failure Forecast in Heterogeneous Material

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasseur, J.; Lavallee, Y.; Hess, K.; Wassermann, J. M.; Dingwell, D. B.

2012-12-01

Volcanoes exhibit a range of seismic precursors prior to eruptions. This range of signals derive from different processes, which if quantified, may tell us when and how the volcano will erupt: effusively or explosively. This quantification can be performed in laboratory. Here we investigated the signals associated with the deformation and failure of single-phase silicate liquids compare to mutli-phase magmas containing pores and crystals as heterogeneities. For the past decades, magmas have been simplified as viscoelastic fluids with grossly predictable failure, following an analysis of the stress and strain rate conditions in volcanic conduits. Yet it is clear that the way magmas fail is not unique and evidences increasingly illustrate the role of heterogeneities in the process of magmatic fragmentation. In such multi-phase magmas, failure cannot be predicted using current rheological laws. Microseismicity, as detected in the laboratory by analogous Acoustic Emission (AE), can be used to monitor fracture initiation and propagation, and thus provides invaluable information to characterise the process of brittle failure underlying explosive eruptions. Tri-axial press experiments on different synthetised and natural glass samples have been performed to investigate the acoustic signature of failure. We observed that the failure of single-phase liquids occurs without much strain and is preceded by the constant nucleation, propagation and coalescence of cracks as demonstrated by the monitored AE. In contrast, the failure of multi-phase magmas depends on the applied stress and is strain dependent. The path dependence of magma failure is nonetheless accompanied by supra exponential acceleration in released AEs. Analysis of the released AEs following material Failure Forecast Method (FFM) suggests that the predicability of failure is enhanced by the presence of heterogeneities in magmas. We discuss our observations in terms of volcanic scenarios.

Shell feature: a new radiomics descriptor for predicting distant failure after radiotherapy in non-small cell lung cancer and cervix cancer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Hongxia; Zhou, Zhiguo; Li, Shulong; Maquilan, Genevieve; Folkert, Michael R.; Iyengar, Puneeth; Westover, Kenneth D.; Albuquerque, Kevin; Liu, Fang; Choy, Hak; Timmerman, Robert; Yang, Lin; Wang, Jing

2018-05-01

Distant failure is the main cause of human cancer-related mortalities. To develop a model for predicting distant failure in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and cervix cancer (CC) patients, a shell feature, consisting of outer voxels around the tumor boundary, was constructed using pre-treatment positron emission tomography (PET) images from 48 NSCLC patients received stereotactic body radiation therapy and 52 CC patients underwent external beam radiation therapy and concurrent chemotherapy followed with high-dose-rate intracavitary brachytherapy. The hypothesis behind this feature is that non-invasive and invasive tumors may have different morphologic patterns in the tumor periphery, in turn reflecting the differences in radiological presentations in the PET images. The utility of the shell was evaluated by the support vector machine classifier in comparison with intensity, geometry, gray level co-occurrence matrix-based texture, neighborhood gray tone difference matrix-based texture, and a combination of these four features. The results were assessed in terms of accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and AUC. Collectively, the shell feature showed better predictive performance than all the other features for distant failure prediction in both NSCLC and CC cohorts.

Seismic energy data analysis of Merapi volcano to test the eruption time prediction using materials failure forecast method (FFM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anggraeni, Novia Antika

2015-04-01

The test of eruption time prediction is an effort to prepare volcanic disaster mitigation, especially in the volcano's inhabited slope area, such as Merapi Volcano. The test can be conducted by observing the increase of volcanic activity, such as seismicity degree, deformation and SO2 gas emission. One of methods that can be used to predict the time of eruption is Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM) is a predictive method to determine the time of volcanic eruption which was introduced by Voight (1988). This method requires an increase in the rate of change, or acceleration of the observed volcanic activity parameters. The parameter used in this study is the seismic energy value of Merapi Volcano from 1990 - 2012. The data was plotted in form of graphs of seismic energy rate inverse versus time with FFM graphical technique approach uses simple linear regression. The data quality control used to increase the time precision employs the data correlation coefficient value of the seismic energy rate inverse versus time. From the results of graph analysis, the precision of prediction time toward the real time of eruption vary between -2.86 up to 5.49 days.

Prediction of the effect of atrasentan on renal and heart failure outcomes based on short-term changes in multiple risk markers.

PubMed

Schievink, Bauke; de Zeeuw, Dick; Smink, Paul A; Andress, Dennis; Brennan, John J; Coll, Blai; Correa-Rotter, Ricardo; Hou, Fan Fan; Kohan, Donald; Kitzman, Dalane W; Makino, Hirofumi; Parving, Hans-Henrik; Perkovic, Vlado; Remuzzi, Giuseppe; Tobe, Sheldon; Toto, Robert; Hoekman, Jarno; Lambers Heerspink, Hiddo J

2016-05-01

A recent phase II clinical trial (Reducing Residual Albuminuria in Subjects with Diabetes and Nephropathy with AtRasentan trial and an identical trial in Japan (RADAR/JAPAN)) showed that the endothelin A receptor antagonist atrasentan lowers albuminuria, blood pressure, cholesterol, hemoglobin, and increases body weight in patients with type 2 diabetes and nephropathy. We previously developed an algorithm, the Parameter Response Efficacy (PRE) score, which translates short-term drug effects into predictions of long-term effects on clinical outcomes. We used the PRE score on data from the RADAR/JAPAN study to predict the effect of atrasentan on renal and heart failure outcomes. We performed a post-hoc analysis of the RADAR/JAPAN randomized clinical trials in which 211 patients with type-2 diabetes and nephropathy were randomly assigned to atrasentan 0.75 mg/day, 1.25 mg/day, or placebo. A PRE score was developed in a background set of completed clinical trials using multivariate Cox models. The score was applied to baseline and week-12 risk marker levels of RADAR/JAPAN participants, to predict atrasentan effects on clinical outcomes. Outcomes were defined as doubling serum creatinine or end-stage renal disease and hospitalization for heart failure. The PRE score predicted renal risk changes of -23% and -30% for atrasentan 0.75 and 1.25 mg/day, respectively. PRE scores also predicted a small non-significant increase in heart failure risk for atrasentan 0.75 and 1.25 mg/day (+2% vs. +7%). Selecting patients with >30% albuminuria reduction from baseline (responders) improved renal outcome to almost 50% risk reduction, whereas non-responders showed no renal benefit. Based on the RADAR/JAPAN study, with short-term changes in risk markers, atrasentan is expected to decrease renal risk without increased risk of heart failure. Within this population albuminuria responders appear to contribute to the predicted improvements, whereas non-responders showed no benefit

Plasma Neutrophil Gelatinase-Associated Lipocalin and Predicting Clinically Relevant Worsening Renal Function in Acute Heart Failure

PubMed Central

Damman, Kevin; A.E. Valente, Mattia; J. van Veldhuisen, Dirk; G.F. Cleland, John; M. O’Connor, Christopher; Metra, Marco; Ponikowski, Piotr; Cotter, Gad; Davison, Beth; M. Givertz, Michael; M. Bloomfield, Daniel; L. Hillege, Hans; A. Voors, Adriaan

2017-01-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the ability of Neutrophil Gelatinase-Associated Lipocalin (NGAL) to predict clinically relevant worsening renal function (WRF) in acute heart failure (AHF). Plasma NGAL and serum creatinine changes during the first 4 days of admission were investigated in 1447 patients hospitalized for AHF and enrolled in the Placebo-Controlled Randomized Study of the Selective A1Adenosine Receptor Antagonist Rolofylline for Patients Hospitalized with Acute Decompensated Heart Failure and Volume Overload to Assess Treatment Effect on Congestion and Renal Function (PROTECT) study. WRF was defined as serum creatinine rise ≥ 0.3 mg/dL through day 4. Biomarker patterns were described using linear mixed models. WRF developed in 325 patients (22%). Plasma NGAL did not rise earlier than creatinine in patients with WRF. After multivariable adjustment, baseline plasma NGAL, but not creatinine, predicted WRF. AUCs for WRF prediction were modest (<0.60) for all models. NGAL did not independently predict death or rehospitalization (p = n.s.). Patients with WRF and high baseline plasma NGAL had a greater risk of death, and renal or cardiovascular rehospitalization by 60 days than patients with WRF and a low baseline plasma NGAL (p for interaction = 0.024). A rise in plasma NGAL after baseline was associated with a worse outcome in patients with WRF, but not in patients without WRF (p = 0.007). On the basis of these results, plasma NGAL does not provide additional, clinically relevant information about the occurrence of WRF in patients with AHF. PMID:28698481

Plasma Neutrophil Gelatinase-Associated Lipocalin and Predicting Clinically Relevant Worsening Renal Function in Acute Heart Failure.

PubMed

Damman, Kevin; Valente, Mattia A E; van Veldhuisen, Dirk J; Cleland, John G F; O'Connor, Christopher M; Metra, Marco; Ponikowski, Piotr; Cotter, Gad; Davison, Beth; Givertz, Michael M; Bloomfield, Daniel M; Hillege, Hans L; Voors, Adriaan A

2017-07-08

The aim of this study was to evaluate the ability of Neutrophil Gelatinase-Associated Lipocalin (NGAL) to predict clinically relevant worsening renal function (WRF) in acute heart failure (AHF). Plasma NGAL and serum creatinine changes during the first 4 days of admission were investigated in 1447 patients hospitalized for AHF and enrolled in the Placebo-Controlled Randomized Study of the Selective A₁Adenosine Receptor Antagonist Rolofylline for Patients Hospitalized with Acute Decompensated Heart Failure and Volume Overload to Assess Treatment Effect on Congestion and Renal Function (PROTECT) study. WRF was defined as serum creatinine rise ≥ 0.3 mg/dL through day 4. Biomarker patterns were described using linear mixed models. WRF developed in 325 patients (22%). Plasma NGAL did not rise earlier than creatinine in patients with WRF. After multivariable adjustment, baseline plasma NGAL, but not creatinine, predicted WRF. AUCs for WRF prediction were modest (<0.60) for all models. NGAL did not independently predict death or rehospitalization ( p = n.s.). Patients with WRF and high baseline plasma NGAL had a greater risk of death, and renal or cardiovascular rehospitalization by 60 days than patients with WRF and a low baseline plasma NGAL (p for interaction = 0.024). A rise in plasma NGAL after baseline was associated with a worse outcome in patients with WRF, but not in patients without WRF ( p = 0.007). On the basis of these results, plasma NGAL does not provide additional, clinically relevant information about the occurrence of WRF in patients with AHF.

Utility of the Instability Severity Index Score in Predicting Failure After Arthroscopic Anterior Stabilization of the Shoulder.

PubMed

Phadnis, Joideep; Arnold, Christine; Elmorsy, Ahmed; Flannery, Mark

2015-08-01

The redislocation rate after arthroscopic stabilization for anterior glenohumeral instability is up to 30%. The Instability Severity Index Score (ISIS) was developed to preoperatively rationalize the risk of failure, but it has not yet been validated by an independent group. To assess the utility of the ISIS in predicting failure of arthroscopic anterior shoulder stabilization and to identify other preoperative factors for failure. Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3. A case-control study was performed on 141 consecutive patients, comparing those who suffered failure of arthroscopic stabilization with those who had successful arthroscopic stabilization. The mean follow-up time was 47 months (range, 24-132 months). The ISIS was applied retrospectively, and an analysis was performed to establish independent risk factors for failure. A receiver operator coefficient curve was constructed to set a threshold ISIS for considering alternative surgery. Of 141 patients, 19 (13.5%) suffered recurrent instability. The mean ISIS of the failed stabilization group was higher than that of the successful stabilization group (5.1 vs 1.7; P < .001). Independent risk factors for failure were Hill-Sachs lesion (P < .001), glenoid bone loss (P < .001), age <21 years at the time of surgery (P < .001), age at first dislocation (P = .01), competitive-level participation in sports (P < .001), and participation in contact or overhead sports (P = .03). The presence of glenoid bone loss carried the highest risk of failure (70%). There was a 70% risk of failure if the ISIS was ≥4, as opposed to a 4% risk of failure if the ISIS was <4. This is the first completely independent study to confirm that the ISIS is a useful preoperative tool. It is recommended that surgeons consider alternative forms of stabilization if the ISIS is ≥4. © 2015 The Author(s).

T-Wave Morphology Restitution Predicts Sudden Cardiac Death in Patients With Chronic Heart Failure.

PubMed

Ramírez, Julia; Orini, Michele; Mincholé, Ana; Monasterio, Violeta; Cygankiewicz, Iwona; Bayés de Luna, Antonio; Martínez, Juan Pablo; Pueyo, Esther; Laguna, Pablo

2017-05-19

Patients with chronic heart failure are at high risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD). Increased dispersion of repolarization restitution has been associated with SCD, and we hypothesize that this should be reflected in the morphology of the T-wave and its variations with heart rate. The aim of this study is to propose an electrocardiogram (ECG)-based index characterizing T-wave morphology restitution (TMR), and to assess its association with SCD risk in a population of chronic heart failure patients. Holter ECGs from 651 ambulatory patients with chronic heart failure from the MUSIC (MUerte Súbita en Insuficiencia Cardiaca) study were available for the analysis. TMR was quantified by measuring the morphological variation of the T-wave per RR increment using time-warping metrics, and its predictive power was compared to that of clinical variables such as the left ventricular ejection fraction and other ECG-derived indices, such as T-wave alternans and heart rate variability. TMR was significantly higher in SCD victims than in the rest of patients (median 0.046 versus 0.039, P <0.001). When TMR was dichotomized at TMR=0.040, the SCD rate was significantly higher in the TMR≥0.040 group ( P <0.001). Cox analysis revealed that TMR≥0.040 was strongly associated with SCD, with a hazard ratio of 3.27 ( P <0.001), independently of clinical and ECG-derived variables. No association was found between TMR and pump failure death. This study shows that TMR is specifically associated with SCD in a population of chronic heart failure patients, and it is a better predictor than clinical and ECG-derived variables. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

The EST Model for Predicting Progressive Damage and Failure of Open Hole Bending Specimens

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joseph, Ashith P. K.; Waas, Anthony M.; Pineda, Evan J.

2016-01-01

Progressive damage and failure in open hole composite laminate coupons subjected to flexural loading is modeled using Enhanced Schapery Theory (EST). Previous studies have demonstrated that EST can accurately predict the strength of open hole coupons under remote tensile and compressive loading states. This homogenized modeling approach uses single composite shell elements to represent the entire laminate in the thickness direction and significantly reduces computational cost. Therefore, when delaminations are not of concern or are active in the post-peak regime, the version of EST presented here is a good engineering tool for predicting deformation response. Standard coupon level tests provides all the input data needed for the model and they are interpreted in conjunction with finite element (FE) based simulations. Open hole bending test results of three different IM7/8552 carbon fiber composite layups agree well with EST predictions. The model is able to accurately capture the curvature change and deformation localization in the specimen at and during the post catastrophic load drop event.

Evaluation of a Progressive Failure Analysis Methodology for Laminated Composite Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sleight, David W.; Knight, Norman F., Jr.; Wang, John T.

1997-01-01

A progressive failure analysis methodology has been developed for predicting the nonlinear response and failure of laminated composite structures. The progressive failure analysis uses C plate and shell elements based on classical lamination theory to calculate the in-plane stresses. Several failure criteria, including the maximum strain criterion, Hashin's criterion, and Christensen's criterion, are used to predict the failure mechanisms. The progressive failure analysis model is implemented into a general purpose finite element code and can predict the damage and response of laminated composite structures from initial loading to final failure.

The Number of Recalled Leads is Highly Predictive of Lead Failure: Results From the Pacemaker and Implantable Defibrillator Leads Survival Study ("PAIDLESS").

PubMed

Kersten, Daniel J; Yi, Jinju; Feldman, Alyssa M; Brahmbhatt, Kunal; Asheld, Wilbur J; Germano, Joseph; Islam, Shahidul; Cohen, Todd J

2016-12-01

The purpose of this study was to determine if implantation of multiple recalled defibrillator leads is associated with an increased risk of lead failure. The authors of the Pacemaker and Implantable Defibrillator Leads Survival Study ("PAIDLESS") have previously reported a relationship between recalled lead status, lead failure, and patient mortality. This substudy analyzes the relationship in a smaller subset of patients who received more than one recalled lead. The specific effects of having one or more recalled leads have not been previously examined. This study analyzed lead failure and mortality of 3802 patients in PAIDLESS and compared outcomes with respect to the number of recalled leads received. PAIDLESS includes all patients at Winthrop University Hospital who underwent defibrillator lead implantation between February 1, 1996 and December 31, 2011. Patients with no recalled ICD leads, one recalled ICD lead, and two recalled ICD leads were compared using the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test. Sidak adjustment method was used to correct for multiple comparisons. All calculations were performed using SAS 9.4. P-values <.05 were considered statistically significant. This study included 4078 total ICD leads implanted during the trial period. There were 2400 leads (59%) in the no recalled leads category, 1620 leads (40%) in the one recalled lead category, and 58 leads (1%) in the two recalled leads category. No patient received more than two recalled leads. Of the leads categorized in the two recalled leads group, 12 experienced lead failures (21%), which was significantly higher (P<.001) than in the no recalled leads group (60 failures, 2.5%) and one recalled lead group (81 failures; 5%). Multivariable Cox's regression analysis found a total of six significant predictive variables for lead failure including the number of recalled leads (P<.001 for one and two recalled leads group). The number of recalled leads is highly predictive of lead failure. Lead

Post-exercise heart rate recovery independently predicts mortality risk in patients with chronic heart failure.

PubMed

Tang, Yi-Da; Dewland, Thomas A; Wencker, Detlef; Katz, Stuart D

2009-12-01

Post-exercise heart rate recovery (HRR) is an index of parasympathetic function associated with clinical outcomes in populations with and without documented coronary heart disease. Decreased parasympathetic activity is thought to be associated with disease progression in chronic heart failure (HF), but an independent association between post-exercise HRR and clinical outcomes among such patients has not been established. We measured HRR (calculated as the difference between heart rate at peak exercise and after 1 minute of recovery) in 202 HF subjects and recorded 17 mortality and 15 urgent transplantation outcome events over 624 days of follow-up. Reduced post-exercise HRR was independently associated with increased event risk after adjusting for other exercise-derived variables (peak oxygen uptake and change in minute ventilation per change in carbon dioxide production slope), for the Heart Failure Survival Score (adjusted HR 1.09 for 1 beat/min reduction, 95% CI 1.05-1.13, P < .0001), and the Seattle Heart Failure Model score (adjusted HR 1.08 for one beat/min reduction, 95% CI 1.05-1.12, P < .0001). Subjects in the lowest risk tertile based on post-exercise HRR (>or=30 beats/min) had low risk of events irrespective of the risk predicted by the survival scores. In a subgroup of 15 subjects, reduced post-exercise HRR was associated with increased serum markers of inflammation (interleukin-6, r = 0.58, P = .024; high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, r = 0.66, P = .007). Post-exercise HRR predicts mortality risk in patients with HF and provides prognostic information independent of previously described survival models. Pathophysiologic links between autonomic function and inflammation may be mediators of this association.

Respiratory failure in tetanic patient: maintenance of airway problem in intensive care unit setting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Utami, I. N.; Arifin; Susilo, R. S. B.; Redhono, D.; Sumandjar, T.

2018-03-01

Tetanus is a toxin-mediated disease caused by Clostridium tetani resulting in muscular stiffness and painful spasm. The case fatality rates are high (10-80%), and the most frequent cause of mortality is airway problem that results in respiratory failure. A 52-year-old malecame to the hospital with lockjaw, rhesussardonicus, opisthotonus, and seizure for the last 12 hours, diagnosed with tetanus grade II. We placed the patient in an isolation room, gave 3000U tetanus immunoglobulin, 20mg diazepam in 500ml dextrose 5%/8 hours, and 500mg/6hrs metronidazole. On the seventh day, seizure became frequent, respiratory rate increased with crackles found on the auscultation, and the blood gas analysis showed respiratory failure type II (PCO2 53mmHg). The patientwas immediately sent to the ICU, intubated and given ventilator support. The patientwas sedated with continuous injection of midazolam 3 mg/h, morphine 10mcg/kgBW/h and also levofloxacin 750mg/24hours. Bronchoalveolar lavage culture was positive for Acinetobacter baumanii, so we changed the antibiotic to amikacin injection 500 mg/8hrs. After four days, we extubated the ventilator and transferred from HCU three days later. The patient was fully recovered and discharged after eighteen days of hospitalization.

Syndrome complex of bone marrow failure and pulmonary fibrosis predicts germline defects in telomerase

PubMed Central

Parry, Erin M.; Alder, Jonathan K.; Qi, Xiaodong; Chen, Julian J.-L.

2011-01-01

Mutations in the essential telomerase components hTERT and hTR cause dyskeratosis congenita, a bone marrow failure syndrome characterized by mucocutaneous features. Some (∼ 3%) sporadic aplastic anemia (AA) and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis cases also carry mutations in hTERT and hTR. Even though it can affect clinical outcome, because the mutation frequency is rare, genetic testing is not standard. We examined whether the cooccurrence of bone marrow failure and pulmonary fibrosis in the same individual or family enriches for the presence of a telomerase mutation. Ten consecutive individuals with a total of 36 family members who fulfilled these criteria carried a germline mutant telomerase gene (100%). The mean age of onset for individuals with AA was significantly younger than that for those with pulmonary fibrosis (14 vs 51; P < .0001). Families displayed autosomal dominant inheritance and there was an evolving pattern of genetic anticipation, with the older generation primarily affected by pulmonary fibrosis and successive generations by bone marrow failure. The cooccurrence of AA and pulmonary fibrosis in a single patient or family is highly predictive for the presence of a germline telomerase defect. This diagnosis affects the choice of bone marrow transplantation preparative regimen and can prevent morbidity. PMID:21436073

Time of non-invasive ventilation.

PubMed

Nava, Stefano; Navalesi, Paolo; Conti, Giorgio

2006-03-01

Non-invasive ventilation (NIV) is a safe, versatile and effective technique that can avert side effects and complications associated with endotracheal intubation. The success of NIV relies on several factors, including the type and severity of acute respiratory failure, the underlying disease, the location of treatment, and the experience of the team. The time factor is also important. NIV is primarily used to avert the need for endotracheal intubation in patients with early-stage acute respiratory failure and post-extubation respiratory failure. It can also be used as an alternative to invasive ventilation at a more advanced stage of acute respiratory failure or to facilitate the process of weaning from mechanical ventilation. NIV has been used to prevent development of acute respiratory failure or post-extubation respiratory failure. The number of days of NIV and hours of daily use differ, depending on the severity and course of the acute respiratory failure and the timing of application. In this review article, we analyse, compare and discuss the results of studies in which NIV was applied at various times during the evolution of acute respiratory failure.

Hot-air forming of Al-Mg-Cr alloy and prediction of failure based on Zener-Holloman parameter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, W. J.; Kim, W. Y.; Kim, H. K.

2010-12-01

The microstructure of an Al-Mg-Cr alloy tube fabricated through indirect extrusion at 673 K showed elongated grains with a mean size of ˜26 μm. The strain rate-stress relationship at high temperatures (753 K to 793 K) revealed that dislocation climb creep was the rate-controlling deformation mechanism. The hot-air forming process was successful at a pressure of 70 bar. The Zener-Hollomon parameter based failure criterion was 3602+, and was used to explain the failure behavior of a deforming body. The forming and fracture behavior of the Al-Mg-Cr alloy tube was analyzed with the aid of finite element (FE) simulation, into which the failure criterion was incorporated. Comparison of the simulation and the experimental results indicated that the proposed fracture criterion was useful in predicting the fracture behavior of aluminum tube deforming by means of gas pressure.

Predictive value of high sensitivity CRP in patients with diastolic heart failure.

PubMed

Michowitz, Yoav; Arbel, Yaron; Wexler, Dov; Sheps, David; Rogowski, Ori; Shapira, Itzhak; Berliner, Shlomo; Keren, Gad; George, Jacob; Roth, Arie

2008-04-25

C-reactive protein (CRP) has been tested in patients with systolic heart failure (HF) and mixed results have been obtained with regards to its potential predictive value. However, the role of C-reactive protein (CRP) in patients with diastolic HF is not established. We studied the predictive role of high sensitivity CRP (hsCRP) in patients with diastolic HF. HsCRP levels were measured in a cohort of CHF outpatients, 77 patients with diastolic HF and 217 patients with systolic HF. Concentrations were compared to a large cohort of healthy population (n=7701) and associated with the HF admissions and mortality of the patients. Levels of hsCRP did not differ between patients with systolic and diastolic HF and were significantly elevated compared to the cohort of healthy subjects even after adjustment to various clinical parameters (p<0.0001). In patients with diastolic HF, hsCRP levels associated with New York Heart Association functional class (NYHA-FC) (r=0.31 p=0.01). On univariate Cox regression model hsCRP levels independently predicted hospitalizations in patients with systolic but not diastolic HF (p=0.047). HsCRP concentrations are elevated in patients with diastolic HF and correlate with disease severity; their prognostic value in this patient population should be further investigated.

Ratio of urine and blood urea nitrogen concentration predicts the response of tolvaptan in congestive heart failure.

PubMed

Shimizu, Keisuke; Doi, Kent; Imamura, Teruhiko; Noiri, Eisei; Yahagi, Naoki; Nangaku, Masaomi; Kinugawa, Koichiro

2015-06-01

This study was conducted to evaluate the performance of the ratio of urine and blood urea nitrogen concentration (UUN/BUN) as a new predictive factor for the response of an arginine vasopressin receptor 2 antagonist tolvaptan (TLV) in decompensated heart failure patients. This study enrolled 70 decompensated heart failure patients who were administered TLV at University of Tokyo Hospital. We collected the data of clinical parameters including UUN/BUN before administering TLV. Two different outcomes were defined as follows: having over 300 mL increase in urine volume on the first day (immediate urine output response) and having any decrease in body weight within one week after starting TLV treatment (subsequent clinical response). Among the 70 enrolled patients, 37 patients (52.9%) showed immediate urine output response; 51 patients (72.9%) showed a subsequent clinical response of body weight decrease. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis showed good prediction by UUN/BUN for the immediate response (AUC-ROC 0.86 [0.75-0.93]) and a significantly better prediction by UUN/BUN for the subsequent clinical response compared with urinary osmolality (AUC-ROC 0.78 [0.63-0.88] vs. 0.68 [0.52-0.80], P < 0.05). We demonstrated that a clinical parameter of UUN/BUN can predict the response of TLV even when measured before TLV administration. UUN/BUN might enable identification of good responders for this new drug. © 2015 Asian Pacific Society of Nephrology.

Failure mechanisms and lifetime prediction methodology for polybutylene pipe in water distribution system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niu, Xiqun

Polybutylene (PB) is a semicrystalline thermoplastics. It has been widely used in potable water distribution piping system. However, field practice shows that failure occurs much earlier than the expected service lifetime. What are the causes and how to appropriately evaluate its lifetime motivate this study. In this thesis, three parts of work have been done. First is the understanding of PB, which includes material thermo and mechanical characterization, aging phenomena and notch sensitivity. The second part analyzes the applicability of the existing lifetime testing method for PB. It is shown that PB is an anomaly in terms of the temperature-lifetime relation because of the fracture mechanism transition across the testing temperature range. The third part is the development of the methodology of lifetime prediction for PB pipe. The fracture process of PB pipe consists of three stages, i.e., crack initiation, slow crack growth (SCG) and crack instability. The practical lifetime of PB pipe is primarily determined by the duration of the first two stages. The mechanism of crack initiation and the quantitative estimation of the time to crack initiation are studied by employing environment stress cracking technique. A fatigue slow crack growth testing method has been developed and applied in the study of SCG. By using Paris-Erdogan equation, a model is constructed to evaluate the time for SCG. As a result, the total lifetime is determined. Through this work, the failure mechanisms of PB pipe has been analyzed and the lifetime prediction methodology has been developed.

Unplanned Extubations in Intensive Care Unit: evidences for risk factors. A literature review.

PubMed

Cosentino, Chiara; Fama, Mattia; Foà, Chiara; Bromuri, Giorgia; Giannini, Serena; Saraceno, Marco; Spagnoletta, Angela; Tenkue, Mbemo; Trevisi, Elena; Sarli, Leopoldo

2017-11-30

Unplanned extubations (UE) are getting more and more relevant in Critical Care, becoming a quality and care safeness outcome. This happens because after an UE the patient can face some complications concerning the airway management, respiratory and hemodynamic problems, lengthen in the hospital stay and in the mechanical ventilation time.  The aim of this review is identify and classify the factors that could increase UE risk. A systematic review of scientific articles was performed consulting the databases PubMed, Cinahl, Medline, EBSCOhost and Google Scholar. Articles from 2006 to 2011 were included. Pediatric Care settings were excluded. 21 articles were selected. From the results emerged that risk factors associated to the patient are widely controversial. Yet restlessness, a low level of sedation and a high level of consciousness seem to be highly related to UE. Organizational risk factors, as workload, nurse:patient ratio, and the use of interdisciplinary protocols seem to play an important role in UE. According the current literature, the research on UE still has to handle a wide uncertainty. There is the need for more studies developing conclusive evidences on the role of different risk factors. Anyway, literature highlights the importance of the nurse and of the healthcare system organization in reducing UE incidence.

Prediction of scuffing failure based on competitive kinetics of oxide formation and removal: Application to lubricated sliding of AISI 52100 steel on steel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cutiongco, Eric C.; Chung, Yip-Wah

1994-07-01

A method for predicting scuffing failure based on the competitive kinetics of oxide formation and removal has been developed and applied to the sliding of AISI 52100 steel on steel with poly-alpha-olefin as the lubricant. Oxide formation rates were determining using static oxidation tests on coupons of 52100 steel covered with poly-alpha-olefin at temperatures of 140 C to 250 C. Oxide removal rates were determined at different combinations of initial average nominal contact pressures (950 MPa to 1578 MPa) and sliding velocities (0.4 m/s to 1.8 m/s) using a ball-on-disk vacuum tribotester. The nominal asperity flash temperatures generated during the wear tests were calculated and the temperatures corresponding to the intersection of the the Arrhenius plots of oxide formation and removal rates were determined and taken as the critical failure temperatures. The pressure-velocity failure transition diagram was constructed by plotting the critical failure temperatures along isotherms of average nominal asperity flash temperatures calculated at different combinations of contact stress and sliding speed. The predicted failure transition curve agreed well with experimental scuffing data.

Can baseline ultrasound results help to predict failure to achieve DAS28 remission after 1 year of tight control treatment in early RA patients?

PubMed

Ten Cate, D F; Jacobs, J W G; Swen, W A A; Hazes, J M W; de Jager, M H; Basoski, N M; Haagsma, C J; Luime, J J; Gerards, A H

2018-01-30

At present, there are no prognostic parameters unequivocally predicting treatment failure in early rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients. We investigated whether baseline ultrasonography (US) findings of joints, when added to baseline clinical, laboratory, and radiographical data, could improve prediction of failure to achieve Disease Activity Score assessing 28 joints (DAS28) remission (<2.6) at 1 year in newly diagnosed RA patients. A multicentre cohort of newly diagnosed RA patients was followed prospectively for 1 year. US of the hands, wrists, and feet was performed at baseline. Clinical, laboratory, and radiographical parameters were recorded. Primary analysis was the prediction by logistic regression of the absence of DAS28 remission 12 months after diagnosis and start of therapy. Of 194 patients included, 174 were used for the analysis, with complete data available for 159. In a multivariate model with baseline DAS28 (odds ratio (OR) 1.6, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2-2.2), the presence of rheumatoid factor (OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.1-5.1), and type of monitoring strategy (OR 0.2, 95% CI 0.05-0.85), the addition of baseline US results for joints (OR 0.96, 95% CI 0.89-1.04) did not significantly improve the prediction of failure to achieve DAS28 remission (likelihood ratio test, 1.04; p = 0.31). In an early RA population, adding baseline ultrasonography of the hands, wrists, and feet to commonly available baseline characteristics did not improve prediction of failure to achieve DAS28 remission at 12 months. Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT01752309 . Registered on 19 December 2012.

Methods for predicting peak discharge of floods caused by failure of natural and constructed earthen dams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walder, Joseph S.; O'Connor, Jim E.

1997-01-01

Floods from failures of natural and constructed dams constitute a widespread hazard to people and property. Expeditious means of assessing flood hazards are necessary, particularly in the case of natural dams, which may form suddenly and unexpectedly. We revise statistical relations (derived from data for past constructed and natural dam failures) between peak discharge (Qp) and water volume released (V0) or drop in lake level (d) but assert that such relations, even when cast into a dimensionless form, are of limited utility because they fail to portray the effect of breach-formation rate. We then analyze a simple, physically based model of dam-breach formation to show that the hydrograph at the breach depends primarily on a dimensionless parameter η=kV0/gl/2d7/2, where k is the mean erosion rate of the breach and g is acceleration due to gravity. The functional relationship between Qp and η takes asymptotically distinct forms depending on whether η ≪ 1 (relatively slow breach formation or small lake volume) or η ≫ 1 (relatively fast breach formation or large lake volume). Theoretical predictions agree well with data from dam failures for which k, and thus η, can be estimated. The theory thus provides a rapid means of predicting the plausible range of values of peak discharge at the breach in an earthen dam as long as the impounded water volume and the water depth at the dam face can be estimated.

The failure of earthquake failure models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gomberg, J.

2001-01-01

In this study I show that simple heuristic models and numerical calculations suggest that an entire class of commonly invoked models of earthquake failure processes cannot explain triggering of seismicity by transient or "dynamic" stress changes, such as stress changes associated with passing seismic waves. The models of this class have the common feature that the physical property characterizing failure increases at an accelerating rate when a fault is loaded (stressed) at a constant rate. Examples include models that invoke rate state friction or subcritical crack growth, in which the properties characterizing failure are slip or crack length, respectively. Failure occurs when the rate at which these grow accelerates to values exceeding some critical threshold. These accelerating failure models do not predict the finite durations of dynamically triggered earthquake sequences (e.g., at aftershock or remote distances). Some of the failure models belonging to this class have been used to explain static stress triggering of aftershocks. This may imply that the physical processes underlying dynamic triggering differs or that currently applied models of static triggering require modification. If the former is the case, we might appeal to physical mechanisms relying on oscillatory deformations such as compaction of saturated fault gouge leading to pore pressure increase, or cyclic fatigue. However, if dynamic and static triggering mechanisms differ, one still needs to ask why static triggering models that neglect these dynamic mechanisms appear to explain many observations. If the static and dynamic triggering mechanisms are the same, perhaps assumptions about accelerating failure and/or that triggering advances the failure times of a population of inevitable earthquakes are incorrect.

Seismic energy data analysis of Merapi volcano to test the eruption time prediction using materials failure forecast method (FFM)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anggraeni, Novia Antika, E-mail: novia.antika.a@gmail.com

The test of eruption time prediction is an effort to prepare volcanic disaster mitigation, especially in the volcano’s inhabited slope area, such as Merapi Volcano. The test can be conducted by observing the increase of volcanic activity, such as seismicity degree, deformation and SO2 gas emission. One of methods that can be used to predict the time of eruption is Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM) is a predictive method to determine the time of volcanic eruption which was introduced by Voight (1988). This method requires an increase in the rate of change, or acceleration ofmore » the observed volcanic activity parameters. The parameter used in this study is the seismic energy value of Merapi Volcano from 1990 – 2012. The data was plotted in form of graphs of seismic energy rate inverse versus time with FFM graphical technique approach uses simple linear regression. The data quality control used to increase the time precision employs the data correlation coefficient value of the seismic energy rate inverse versus time. From the results of graph analysis, the precision of prediction time toward the real time of eruption vary between −2.86 up to 5.49 days.« less

Chaos emerging in soil failure patterns observed during tillage: Normalized deterministic nonlinear prediction (NDNP) and its application.

PubMed

Sakai, Kenshi; Upadhyaya, Shrinivasa K; Andrade-Sanchez, Pedro; Sviridova, Nina V

2017-03-01

Real-world processes are often combinations of deterministic and stochastic processes. Soil failure observed during farm tillage is one example of this phenomenon. In this paper, we investigated the nonlinear features of soil failure patterns in a farm tillage process. We demonstrate emerging determinism in soil failure patterns from stochastic processes under specific soil conditions. We normalized the deterministic nonlinear prediction considering autocorrelation and propose it as a robust way of extracting a nonlinear dynamical system from noise contaminated motion. Soil is a typical granular material. The results obtained here are expected to be applicable to granular materials in general. From a global scale to nano scale, the granular material is featured in seismology, geotechnology, soil mechanics, and particle technology. The results and discussions presented here are applicable in these wide research areas. The proposed method and our findings are useful with respect to the application of nonlinear dynamics to investigate complex motions generated from granular materials.

Optimization of Artificial Neural Network using Evolutionary Programming for Prediction of Cascading Collapse Occurrence due to the Hidden Failure Effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Idris, N. H.; Salim, N. A.; Othman, M. M.; Yasin, Z. M.

2018-03-01

This paper presents the Evolutionary Programming (EP) which proposed to optimize the training parameters for Artificial Neural Network (ANN) in predicting cascading collapse occurrence due to the effect of protection system hidden failure. The data has been collected from the probability of hidden failure model simulation from the historical data. The training parameters of multilayer-feedforward with backpropagation has been optimized with objective function to minimize the Mean Square Error (MSE). The optimal training parameters consists of the momentum rate, learning rate and number of neurons in first hidden layer and second hidden layer is selected in EP-ANN. The IEEE 14 bus system has been tested as a case study to validate the propose technique. The results show the reliable prediction of performance validated through MSE and Correlation Coefficient (R).

Predicting subsequent task performance from goal motivation and goal failure.

PubMed

Healy, Laura C; Ntoumanis, Nikos; Stewart, Brandon D; Duda, Joan L

2015-01-01

Recent research has demonstrated that the cognitive processes associated with goal pursuit can continue to interfere with unrelated tasks when a goal is unfulfilled. Drawing from the self-regulation and goal-striving literatures, the present study explored the impact of goal failure on subsequent cognitive and physical task performance. Furthermore, we examined if the autonomous or controlled motivation underpinning goal striving moderates the responses to goal failure. Athletes (75 male, 59 female, Mage = 19.90 years, SDage = 3.50) completed a cycling trial with the goal of covering a given distance in 8 min. Prior to the trial, their motivation was primed using a video. During the trial they were provided with manipulated performance feedback, thus creating conditions of goal success or failure. No differences emerged in the responses to goal failure between the primed motivation or performance feedback conditions. We make recommendations for future research into how individuals can deal with failure in goal striving.

A nomogram for predicting distant brain failure in patients treated with gamma knife stereotactic radiosurgery without whole brain radiotherapy

PubMed Central

Ayala-Peacock, Diandra N.; Peiffer, Ann M.; Lucas, John T.; Isom, Scott; Kuremsky, J. Griff; Urbanic, James J.; Bourland, J. Daniel; Laxton, Adrian W.; Tatter, Stephen B.; Shaw, Edward G.; Chan, Michael D.

2014-01-01

Background We review our single institution experience to determine predictive factors for early and delayed distant brain failure (DBF) after radiosurgery without whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT) for brain metastases. Materials and methods Between January 2000 and December 2010, a total of 464 patients were treated with Gamma Knife stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) without WBRT for primary management of newly diagnosed brain metastases. Histology, systemic disease, RPA class, and number of metastases were evaluated as possible predictors of DBF rate. DBF rates were determined by serial MRI. Kaplan–Meier method was used to estimate rate of DBF. Multivariate analysis was performed using Cox Proportional Hazard regression. Results Median number of lesions treated was 1 (range 1–13). Median time to DBF was 4.9 months. Twenty-seven percent of patients ultimately required WBRT with median time to WBRT of 5.6 months. Progressive systemic disease (χ2= 16.748, P < .001), number of metastases at SRS (χ2 = 27.216, P < .001), discovery of new metastases at time of SRS (χ2 = 9.197, P < .01), and histology (χ2 = 12.819, P < .07) were factors that predicted for earlier time to distant failure. High risk histologic subtypes (melanoma, her2 negative breast, χ2 = 11.020, P < .001) and low risk subtypes (her2 + breast, χ2 = 11.343, P < .001) were identified. Progressive systemic disease (χ2 = 9.549, P < .01), number of brain metastases (χ2 = 16.953, P < .001), minimum SRS dose (χ2 = 21.609, P < .001), and widespread metastatic disease (χ2 = 29.396, P < .001) were predictive of shorter time to WBRT. Conclusion Systemic disease, number of metastases, and histology are factors that predict distant failure rate after primary radiosurgical management of brain metastases. PMID:24558022

Do plasma concentrations of apelin predict prognosis in patients with advanced heart failure?

PubMed

Dalzell, Jonathan R; Jackson, Colette E; Chong, Kwok S; McDonagh, Theresa A; Gardner, Roy S

2014-01-01

Apelin is an endogenous vasodilator and inotrope, plasma concentrations of which are reduced in advanced heart failure (HF). We determined the prognostic significance of plasma concentrations of apelin in advanced HF. Plasma concentrations of apelin were measured in 182 patients with advanced HF secondary to left ventricular systolic dysfunction. The predictive value of apelin for the primary end point of all-cause mortality was assessed over a median follow-up period of 544 (IQR: 196-923) days. In total, 30 patients (17%) reached the primary end point. Of those patients with a plasma apelin concentration above the median, 14 (16%) reached the primary end point compared with 16 (17%) of those with plasma apelin levels below the median (p = NS). NT-proBNP was the most powerful prognostic marker in this population (log rank statistic: 10.37; p = 0.001). Plasma apelin concentrations do not predict medium to long-term prognosis in patients with advanced HF secondary to left ventricular systolic dysfunction.

Delayed extubation to nasal continuous positive airway pressure in the immature baboon model of bronchopulmonary dysplasia: lung clinical and pathological findings.

PubMed

Thomson, Merran A; Yoder, Bradley A; Winter, Vicki T; Giavedoni, Luis; Chang, Ling Yi; Coalson, Jacqueline J

2006-11-01

Using the 125-day baboon model of bronchopulmonary dysplasia treated with prenatal steroid and exogenous surfactant, we hypothesized that a delay of extubation from low tidal volume positive pressure ventilation to nasal continuous positive airway pressure at 5 days (delayed nasal continuous positive airway pressure group) would not induce more lung injury when compared with baboons aggressively weaned to nasal continuous positive airway pressure at 24 hours (early nasal continuous positive airway pressure group), because both received positive pressure ventilation. After delivery by cesarean section at 125 days (term: 185 days), infants received 2 doses of Curosurf (Chiesi Farmaceutica S.p.A., Parma, Italy) and daily caffeine citrate. The delay in extubation to 5 days resulted in baboons in the delayed nasal continuous positive airway pressure group having a lower arterial to alveolar oxygen ratio, high PaCO2, and worse respiratory function. The animals in the delayed nasal continuous positive airway pressure group exhibited a poor respiratory drive that contributed to more reintubations and time on mechanical ventilation. A few animals in both groups developed necrotizing enterocolitis and/or sepsis, but infectious pneumonias were not documented. Cellular bronchiolitis and peribronchiolar alveolar wall thickening were more frequently seen in the delayed nasal continuous positive airway pressure group. Bronchoalveolar lavage levels of interleukin-6, interleukin-8, monocyte chemotactic protein-1, macrophage inflammatory protein-1 alpha, and growth-regulated oncogene-alpha were significantly increased in the delayed nasal continuous positive airway pressure group. Standard and digital morphometric analyses showed no significant differences in internal surface area and nodal measurements between the groups. Platelet endothelial cell adhesion molecule vascular staining was not significantly different between the 2 nasal continuous positive airway pressure groups

Morphologic Risk Factors in Predicting Symptomatic Structural Failure of Arthroscopic Rotator Cuff Repairs: Tear Size, Location, and Atrophy Matter.

PubMed

Gasbarro, Gregory; Ye, Jason; Newsome, Hillary; Jiang, Kevin; Wright, Vonda; Vyas, Dharmesh; Irrgang, James J; Musahl, Volker

2016-10-01

To evaluate whether morphologic characteristics of rotator cuff tear have prognostic value in determining symptomatic structural failure of arthroscopic rotator cuff repair independent of age or gender. Arthroscopic rotator cuff repair cases performed by five fellowship-trained surgeons at our institution from 2006 to 2013 were retrospectively reviewed. Data extraction included demographics, comorbidities, repair technique, clinical examination, and radiographic findings. Failure in symptomatic patients was defined as structural defect on postoperative magnetic resonance imaging or pseudoparalysis on examination. Failures were age and gender matched with successful repairs in a 1:2 ratio. A total of 30 failures and 60 controls were identified. Supraspinatus atrophy (P = .03) and tear size (18.3 mm failures v 13.9 mm controls; P = .02) were significant risk factors for failure, as was the presence of an infraspinatus tear greater than 10 mm (62% v 17%, P < .01). Single-row repair (P = .06) and simple suture configuration (P = .17) were more common but similar between groups. Diabetes mellitus and active tobacco use were not significantly associated with increased failure risk but psychiatric medication use was more frequent in the failure group. This study confirms previous suspicions that tear size and fatty infiltration are associated with failure of arthroscopic rotator cuff repair but independent of age or gender in symptomatic patients. There is also a quantitative cutoff on magnetic resonance imaging for the size of infraspinatus involvement that can be used clinically as a predicting factor. Although reported in the literature, smoking and diabetes were not associated with failure. Level III, retrospective case control. Copyright © 2016 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Flood Water Level Mapping and Prediction Due to Dam Failures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Musa, S.; Adnan, M. S.; Ahmad, N. A.; Ayob, S.

2016-07-01

Sembrong dam has undergone overflow failure. Flooding has been reported to hit the town, covering an area of up to Parit Raja, located in the district of Batu Pahat. This study aims to identify the areas that will be affected by flood in the event of a dam failure in Sembrong Dam, Kluang, Johor at a maximum level. To grasp the extent, the flood inundation maps have been generated by using the InfoWorks ICM and GIS software. By using these maps, information such as the depth and extent of floods can be identified the main ares flooded. The flood map was created starting with the collection of relevant data such as measuring the depth of the river and a maximum flow rate for Sembrong Dam. The data were obtained from the Drainage and Irrigation Department Malaysia and the Department of Survey and Mapping and HLA Associates Sdn. Bhd. Then, the data were analyzed according to the established Info Works ICM method. The results found that the flooded area were listed at Sri Lalang, Parit Sagil, Parit Sonto, Sri Paya, Parit Raja, Parit Sempadan, Talang Bunut, Asam Bubok, Tanjung Sembrong, Sungai Rambut and Parit Haji Talib. Flood depth obtained for the related area started from 0.5 m up to 1.2 m. As a conclusion, the flood emanating from this study include the area around the town of Ayer Hitam up to Parit Raja approximately of more than 20 km distance. This may give bad implication to residents around these areas. In future studies, other rivers such as Sungai Batu Pahat should be considered for this study to predict and reduce the yearly flood victims for this area.

Combined In-Plane and Through-the-Thickness Analysis for Failure Prediction of Bolted Composite Joints

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kradinov, V.; Madenci, E.; Ambur, D. R.

2004-01-01

Although two-dimensional methods provide accurate predictions of contact stresses and bolt load distribution in bolted composite joints with multiple bolts, they fail to capture the effect of thickness on the strength prediction. Typically, the plies close to the interface of laminates are expected to be the most highly loaded, due to bolt deformation, and they are usually the first to fail. This study presents an analysis method to account for the variation of stresses in the thickness direction by augmenting a two-dimensional analysis with a one-dimensional through the thickness analysis. The two-dimensional in-plane solution method based on the combined complex potential and variational formulation satisfies the equilibrium equations exactly, and satisfies the boundary conditions and constraints by minimizing the total potential. Under general loading conditions, this method addresses multiple bolt configurations without requiring symmetry conditions while accounting for the contact phenomenon and the interaction among the bolts explicitly. The through-the-thickness analysis is based on the model utilizing a beam on an elastic foundation. The bolt, represented as a short beam while accounting for bending and shear deformations, rests on springs, where the spring coefficients represent the resistance of the composite laminate to bolt deformation. The combined in-plane and through-the-thickness analysis produces the bolt/hole displacement in the thickness direction, as well as the stress state in each ply. The initial ply failure predicted by applying the average stress criterion is followed by a simple progressive failure. Application of the model is demonstrated by considering single- and double-lap joints of metal plates bolted to composite laminates.

Serum creatinine and bilirubin predict renal failure and mortality in patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis: a retrospective study.

PubMed

Terg, Rubén; Gadano, Adrian; Cartier, Mariano; Casciato, Paola; Lucero, Romina; Muñoz, Alberto; Romero, Gustavo; Levi, Diana; Terg, Gonzalo; Miguez, Carlos; Abecasis, Raquel

2009-03-01

Patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) are at a high risk for renal failure and death despite successful treatment of infection. Intravenous (IV) albumin administration combined with antibiotic treatment has been shown to significantly decrease these risks. Clinical evidence is lacking on which patients are appropriate candidates for albumin treatment. To retrospectively analyse the usefulness of serum creatinine and bilirubin levels in predicting renal failure and mortality of patients hospitalized for SBP. Between March 1995 and September 1998, 127 cirrhotic patients with SBP who had not received plasma expansion were evaluated. Eighty-one patients (64%) were classified as having a high risk for renal failure and mortality (serum bilirubin >4 mg/dl or serum creatinine >1 mg/dl) and 46 (36%) as having a low risk. At admission, 36.3% of all patients presented renal failure. Mortality during their hospitalization was 23% among those with a high risk and 6.5% among those with a low risk (P=0.01). Renal failure occurred in 23% of the high-risk patients, compared with 2.6% of the low-risk patients (P=0.006). The presence of hyponatraemia was significantly associated with higher mortality and renal failure in the high-risk group. Our retrospective review of patients with SBP suggests that serum bilirubin levels >4 mg and serum creatinine levels >1 mg/dl at the time of diagnosis represent significant risk factors for the clinical outcomes of patients with SBP. Patients without these risk factors may have a very low likelihood of death or renal failure.

Risk factors for the development of postoperative pneumonia after cardiac surgery.

PubMed

Vera Urquiza, Rafael; Bucio Reta, Eduardo Rafael; Berríos Bárcenas, Enrique Alexander; Choreño Machain, Tania

2016-01-01

Identify risk factors that determine pneumonia development in patients who have undergone cardiac surgery. Prospective study of a single cohort in a postoperative intensive care unit at a tertiary care center, encompassing all patients undergoing cardiac surgery from January to July 2014. 31 postoperative pneumonia cases were enrolled out of 211 patients (14.6%). The following independent risk factors were identified: hypertension (OR: 3.94, p=0.01), chronic renal failure (OR: 13.67, p=0.02), reintubation (OR: 22.29, p=0.001) and extubation after 6h (OR: 15.81, p=0.005). Main determinants for pneumonia after surgery were hypertension, chronic renal failure, extubation after 6h and reintubation. Copyright © 2016. Publicado por Masson Doyma México S.A.

Oxygen Uptake Efficiency Plateau Best Predicts Early Death in Heart Failure

PubMed Central

Hansen, James E.; Stringer, William W.

2012-01-01

Background: The responses of oxygen uptake efficiency (ie, oxygen uptake/ventilation = V˙o2/V˙e) and its highest plateau (OUEP) during incremental cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) in patients with chronic left heart failure (HF) have not been previously reported. We planned to test the hypothesis that OUEP during CPET is the best single predictor of early death in HF. Methods: We evaluated OUEP, slope of V˙o2 to log(V˙e) (oxygen uptake efficiency slope), oscillatory breathing, and all usual resting and CPET measurements in 508 patients with low-ejection-fraction (< 35%) HF. Each had further evaluations at other sites, including cardiac catheterization. Outcomes were 6-month all-reason mortality and morbidity (death or > 24 h cardiac hospitalization). Statistical analyses included area under curve of receiver operating characteristics, ORs, univariate and multivariate Cox regression, and Kaplan-Meier plots. Results: OUEP, which requires only moderate exercise, was often reduced in patients with HF. A low % predicted OUEP was the single best predictor of mortality (P < .0001), with an OR of 13.0 (P < .001). When combined with oscillatory breathing, the OR increased to 56.3, superior to all other resting or exercise parameters or combinations of parameters. Other statistical analyses and morbidity analysis confirmed those findings. Conclusions: OUEP is often reduced in patients with HF. Low % predicted OUEP (< 65% predicted) is the single best predictor of early death, better than any other CPET or other cardiovascular measurement. Paired with oscillatory breathing, it is even more powerful. PMID:22030802

The predictive value of the antioxidative function of HDL for cardiovascular disease and graft failure in renal transplant recipients.

PubMed

Leberkühne, Lynn J; Ebtehaj, Sanam; Dimova, Lidiya G; Dikkers, Arne; Dullaart, Robin P F; Bakker, Stephan J L; Tietge, Uwe J F

2016-06-01

Protection of low-density lipoproteins (LDL) against oxidative modification is a key anti-atherosclerotic property of high-density lipoproteins (HDL). This study evaluated the predictive value of the HDL antioxidative function for cardiovascular mortality, all-cause mortality and chronic graft failure in renal transplant recipients (RTR). The capacity of HDL to inhibit native LDL oxidation was determined in vitro in a prospective cohort of renal transplant recipients (RTR, n = 495, median follow-up 7.0 years). The HDL antioxidative functionality was significantly higher in patients experiencing graft failure (57.4 ± 9.7%) than in those without (54.2 ± 11.3%; P = 0.039), while there were no differences for cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. Specifically glomerular filtration rate (P = 0.001) and C-reactive protein levels (P = 0.006) associated independently with antioxidative functionality in multivariate linear regression analyses. Cox regression analysis demonstrated a significant relationship between antioxidative functionality of HDL and graft failure in age-adjusted analyses, but significance was lost following adjustment for baseline kidney function and inflammatory load. No significant association was found between HDL antioxidative functionality and cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. This study demonstrates that the antioxidative function of HDL (i) does not predict cardiovascular or all-cause mortality in RTR, but (ii) conceivably contributes to the development of graft failure, however, not independent of baseline kidney function and inflammatory load. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Strategies for maximizing your chances for weaning success. Limitations--and advantages--of common predictive indices.

PubMed

Patel, R G; Petrini, M F; Norman, J R

1995-06-01

Using indices to predict weaning outcome can avoid premature extubation and unnecessary prolongation of ventilatory support. Unfortunately, none of the indices is consistently able to predict outcome. The key to successful weaning is to assess respiratory function repeatedly with several indices, not just one. The patient should be able to sustain spontaneous breathing for at least 24 hours on minimal partial ventilatory support (a pressure support or a continuous positive airway pressure of 5 cm H2O or a T piece, for example). Indices of maximal inspiratory pressure; work of breathing; and rapid, shallow breathing are useful in evaluating a patient's respiratory muscle performance; airway occlusion pressure is helpful as well when increased neuromuscular drive is a problem.

Dead or Alive? Using Membrane Failure and Chlorophyll a Fluorescence to Predict Plant Mortality from Drought.

PubMed

Guadagno, Carmela R; Ewers, Brent E; Speckman, Heather N; Aston, Timothy Llewellyn; Huhn, Bridger J; DeVore, Stanley B; Ladwig, Joshua T; Strawn, Rachel N; Weinig, Cynthia

2017-09-01

Climate models predict widespread increases in both drought intensity and duration in the next decades. Although water deficiency is a significant determinant of plant survival, limited understanding of plant responses to extreme drought impedes forecasts of both forest and crop productivity under increasing aridity. Drought induces a suite of physiological responses; however, we lack an accurate mechanistic description of plant response to lethal drought that would improve predictive understanding of mortality under altered climate conditions. Here, proxies for leaf cellular damage, chlorophyll a fluorescence, and electrolyte leakage were directly associated with failure to recover from drought upon rewatering in Brassica rapa (genotype R500) and thus define the exact timing of drought-induced death. We validated our results using a second genotype (imb211) that differs substantially in life history traits. Our study demonstrates that whereas changes in carbon dynamics and water transport are critical indicators of drought stress, they can be unrelated to visible metrics of mortality, i.e. lack of meristematic activity and regrowth. In contrast, membrane failure at the cellular scale is the most proximate cause of death. This hypothesis was corroborated in two gymnosperms ( Picea engelmannii and Pinus contorta ) that experienced lethal water stress in the field and in laboratory conditions. We suggest that measurement of chlorophyll a fluorescence can be used to operationally define plant death arising from drought, and improved plant characterization can enhance surface model predictions of drought mortality and its consequences to ecosystem services at a global scale. © 2017 American Society of Plant Biologists. All Rights Reserved.

Progressive Failure Analysis of Composite Stiffened Panels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bednarcyk, Brett A.; Yarrington, Phillip W.; Collier, Craig S.; Arnold, Steven M.

2006-01-01

A new progressive failure analysis capability for stiffened composite panels has been developed based on the combination of the HyperSizer stiffened panel design/analysis/optimization software with the Micromechanics Analysis Code with Generalized Method of Cells (MAC/GMC). MAC/GMC discretizes a composite material s microstructure into a number of subvolumes and solves for the stress and strain state in each while providing the homogenized composite properties as well. As a result, local failure criteria may be employed to predict local subvolume failure and the effects of these local failures on the overall composite response. When combined with HyperSizer, MAC/GMC is employed to represent the ply level composite material response within the laminates that constitute a stiffened panel. The effects of local subvolume failures can then be tracked as loading on the stiffened panel progresses. Sample progressive failure results are presented at both the composite laminate and the composite stiffened panel levels. Deformation and failure model predictions are compared with experimental data from the World Wide Failure Exercise for AS4/3501-6 graphite/epoxy laminates.

Percutaneous Coronary Revascularization for Chronic Total Occlusions: A Novel Predictive Score of Technical Failure Using Advanced Technologies.

PubMed

Galassi, Alfredo R; Boukhris, Marouane; Azzarelli, Salvatore; Castaing, Marine; Marzà, Francesco; Tomasello, Salvatore D

2016-05-09

The aims of this study were to describe the 10-year experience of a single operator dedicated to chronic total occlusion (CTO) and to establish a model for predicting technical failure. During the last decade, the interest in percutaneous coronary interventions (PCIs) of chronic total occlusions (CTOs) has increased, allowing the improvement of success rate. One thousand nineteen patients with CTO underwent 1,073 CTO procedures performed by a single CTO-dedicated operator. The study population was subdivided into 2 groups by time period: period 1 (January 2005 to December 2009, n = 378) and period 2 (January 2010 to December 2014, n = 641). Observations were randomly assigned to a derivation set and a validation set (in a 2:1 ratio). A prediction score was established by assigning points for each independent predictor of technical failure in the derivation set according to the beta coefficient and summing all points accrued. Lesions attempted in period 2 were more complex in comparison with those in period 1. Compared with period 1, both technical and clinical success rates significantly improved (from 87.8% to 94.4% [p = 0.001] and from 77.6% to 89.9% [p < 0.001], respectively). A prediction score for technical failure including age ≥75 years (1 point), ostial location (1 point), and collateral filling Rentrop grade <2 (2 points) was established, stratifying procedures into 4 difficulty groups: easy (0), intermediate (1), difficult (2), and very difficult (3 or 4), with decreasing technical success rates. In derivation and validation sets, areas under the curve were comparable (0.728 and 0.772, respectively). With growing expertise, the success rate has increased despite increasing complexity of attempted lesions. The established model predicted the probability of technical failure and thus might be applied to grading the difficulty of CTO procedures. Copyright © 2016 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights

Proteins Annexin A2 and PSA in Prostate Cancer Biopsies Do Not Predict Biochemical Failure.

PubMed

Lamb, David S; Sondhauss, Sven; Dunne, Jonathan C; Woods, Lisa; Delahunt, Brett; Ferguson, Peter; Murray, Judith; Nacey, John N; Denham, James W; Jordan, T William

2017-12-01

We previously reported the use of mass spectrometry and western blotting to identify proteins from tumour regions of formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded biopsies from 16 men who presented with apparently localized prostate cancer, and found that annexin A2 (ANXA2) appeared to be a better predictor of subsequent biochemical failure than prostate-specific antigen (PSA). In this follow-up study, ANXA2 and PSA were measured using western blotting of proteins extracted from biopsies from 37 men from a subsequent prostate cancer trial. No significant differences in ANXA2 and PSA levels were observed between men with and without biochemical failure. The statistical effect sizes were small, d=0.116 for ANXA2, and 0.266 for PSA. ANXA2 and PSA proteins measured from biopsy tumour regions are unlikely to be good biomarkers for prediction of the clinical outcome of prostate cancer presenting with apparently localized disease. Copyright© 2017, International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. George J. Delinasios), All rights reserved.

A state-based approach to trend recognition and failure prediction for the Space Station Freedom

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nelson, Kyle S.; Hadden, George D.

1992-01-01

A state-based reasoning approach to trend recognition and failure prediction for the Altitude Determination, and Control System (ADCS) of the Space Station Freedom (SSF) is described. The problem domain is characterized by features (e.g., trends and impending failures) that develop over a variety of time spans, anywhere from several minutes to several years. Our state-based reasoning approach, coupled with intelligent data screening, allows features to be tracked as they develop in a time-dependent manner. That is, each state machine has the ability to encode a time frame for the feature it detects. As features are detected, they are recorded and can be used as input to other state machines, creating a hierarchical feature recognition scheme. Furthermore, each machine can operate independently of the others, allowing simultaneous tracking of features. State-based reasoning was implemented in the trend recognition and the prognostic modules of a prototype Space Station Freedom Maintenance and Diagnostic System (SSFMDS) developed at Honeywell's Systems and Research Center.

Predicting treatment failure, death and drug resistance using a computed risk score among newly diagnosed TB patients in Tamaulipas, Mexico.

PubMed

Abdelbary, B E; Garcia-Viveros, M; Ramirez-Oropesa, H; Rahbar, M H; Restrepo, B I

2017-10-01

The purpose of this study was to develop a method for identifying newly diagnosed tuberculosis (TB) patients at risk for TB adverse events in Tamaulipas, Mexico. Surveillance data between 2006 and 2013 (8431 subjects) was used to develop risk scores based on predictive modelling. The final models revealed that TB patients failing their treatment regimen were more likely to have at most a primary school education, multi-drug resistance (MDR)-TB, and few to moderate bacilli on acid-fast bacilli smear. TB patients who died were more likely to be older males with MDR-TB, HIV, malnutrition, and reporting excessive alcohol use. Modified risk scores were developed with strong predictability for treatment failure and death (c-statistic 0·65 and 0·70, respectively), and moderate predictability for drug resistance (c-statistic 0·57). Among TB patients with diabetes, risk scores showed moderate predictability for death (c-statistic 0·68). Our findings suggest that in the clinical setting, the use of our risk scores for TB treatment failure or death will help identify these individuals for tailored management to prevent these adverse events. In contrast, the available variables in the TB surveillance dataset are not robust predictors of drug resistance, indicating the need for prompt testing at time of diagnosis.

Can early extubation and intensive physiotherapy decrease length of stay of acute quadriplegic patients in intensive care? A retrospective case control study.

PubMed

Berney, Sue; Stockton, Kellie; Berlowitz, David; Denehy, Linda

2002-01-01

Respiratory complications remain a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the acute quadriplegic patient population. The literature has suggested that early insertion of a tracheostomy facilitated pulmonary management and an earlier discharge from the intensive care unit (ICU). Recently, a change in practice has meant that these patients are considered for extubation and intensive physiotherapy treatment, including an overnight on-call service, rather than tracheostomy. The aim of the present retrospective, case-controlled study was to determine if either practice resulted in a difference in length of stay in intensive care and if an on-call physiotherapy service for these patients was cost effective. A case control design was used. Between April 1997 and November 1999, seven patients who did not require a tracheostomy were identified; case control subjects were matched for severity with seven patients who did receive a tracheostomy. Length of stay in intensive care and on the acute ward, days from injury to fixation and the overall number of respiratory physiotherapy and night physiotherapy treatments were recorded. Five of the seven patients in the non-tracheostomy group received on-call overnight physiotherapy treatment, with an average of five sessions over a total of three nights. This group's length of stay in an ICU was significantly less than patients who were tracheostomized (p = 0.02). The overall number of physiotherapy treatments between the two groups was not significantly different. The results of this study suggest that if extubation and intensive physiotherapy is undertaken for suitable patients, the length of stay in intensive care can be significantly reduced. This represents a considerable cost saving for ICUs and more than covers the added cost of providing an after hours on-call physiotherapy treatment service. A prospective evaluation is required to confirm these findings.

The predictive value of physical examination findings in patients with suspected acute heart failure syndrome.

PubMed

Jang, Timothy B; Aubin, Chandra; Naunheim, Rosanne; Lewis, Lawrence M; Kaji, Amy H

2012-06-01

It can be difficult to differentiate acute heart failure syndrome (AHFS) from other causes of acute dyspnea, especially when patients present in extremis. The objective of the study was to determine the predictive value of physical examination findings for pulmonary edema and elevated B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels in patients with suspected AHFS. This was a secondary analysis of a previously reported prospective study of jugular vein ultrasonography in patients with suspected AHFS. Charts were reviewed for physical examination findings, which were then compared to pulmonary edema on chest radiography (CXR) read by radiologists blinded to clinical information and BNP levels measured at presentation. The predictive value of every sign and combination of signs for pulmonary edema on CXR or an elevated BNP was poor. Since physical examination findings alone are not predictive of pulmonary edema or an elevated BNP, clinicians should have a low threshold for using CXR or BNP in clinical evaluation. This brief research report suggests that no physical examination finding or constellation of findings can be used to reliably predict pulmonary edema or an elevated BNP in patients with suspected AHFS.

The 6-minute walk test in chronic respiratory failure: does observed or predicted walk distance better reflect patient functional status?

PubMed

Güngör, Gökay; Karakurt, Zuhal; Adigüzel, Nalan; Aydin, Rüya Evin; Balci, Merih Kalamanoğlu; Saltürk, Cüneyt; Sancar, Raziye; Solmaz, Suat; Moçin, Özlem Yazicioğlu

2013-05-01

Acquiring 6-min walk test (6MWT) data from patients undergoing noninvasive mechanical ventilation due to chronic hypercapnic respiratory failure is limited. We aimed to assess whether the actual 6-min walk distance (6MWD) or the percent predicted 6MWD is a better reflection of the respiratory function of patients using home noninvasive ventilation (NIV) due to chronic hypercapnic respiratory failure. This was a cross-sectional observational study. The 6MWT was performed in subjects using home NIV. Diagnoses were grouped as COPD, obesity hypoventilation syndrome (OHS), kyphoscoliosis, and parenchymal lung disease. Sex, age, and body mass index (BMI) were used to calculate ideal 6MWD. Male: 1,140 m - (5.61 × BMI) - (6.94 × age), and subtract 153 m for the lower limit of normal. Female: 1,017 m - (6.24 × BMI) - (5.83 × age), and subtract 139 m for the lower limit of normal. The 6MWD and percent-of-predicted 6MWD were compared relative to arterial blood gas, spirometry values, and diagnosis. The 6MWT was performed in 144 subjects, median (IQR) age 62 y (55-71 y). The male/female ratio, median (IQR) 6MWD, and percent-of-predicted 6MWD values were: COPD 32/6, 316 m (226-390 m), and 59.4% (42.5-68.9%); OHS 24/28, 303 m (240-362 m), and 73.0% (63.0-82.0%); kyphoscoliosis 16/7, 420 m (318-462 m), and 70.5% (56.0-75.2%); and parenchymal lung disease 19/12, 333 m (273-372 m), and 67.1% (46.7-74.7%). The correlation of percent-of-predicted 6MWD with spirometry and arterial blood gas values were better than with the actual 6MWD. The percent-of-predicted 6MWD was better correlated with respiratory function than actual 6MWD for subjects using home NIV due to chronic hypercapnic respiratory failure with COPD, OHS, kyphoscoliosis, and parenchymal lung disease.

Leishmania Antigenuria to Predict Initial Treatment Failure and Relapse in Visceral Leishmaniasis/HIV Coinfected Patients: An Exploratory Study Nested Within a Clinical Trial in Ethiopia.

PubMed

van Griensven, Johan; Mengesha, Bewketu; Mekonnen, Tigist; Fikre, Helina; Takele, Yegnasew; Adem, Emebet; Mohammed, Rezika; Ritmeijer, Koert; Vogt, Florian; Adriaensen, Wim; Diro, Ermias

2018-01-01

Background: Biomarkers predicting the risk of VL treatment failure and relapse in VL/HIV coinfected patients are needed. Nested within a two-site clinical trial in Ethiopia (2011-2015), we conducted an exploratory study to assess whether (1) levels of Leishmania antigenuria measured at VL diagnosis were associated with initial treatment failure and (2) levels of Leishmania antigenuria at the end of treatment (parasitologically-confirmed cure) were associated with subsequent relapse. Methods: Leishmania antigenuria at VL diagnosis and cure was determined using KAtex urine antigen test and graded as negative (0), weak/moderate (grade 1+/2+) or strongly-positive (3+). Logistic regression and Kaplan-Meier methods were used to assess the association between antigenuria and (1) initial treatment failure, and (2) relapse over the 12 months after cure, respectively. Results: The analysis to predict initial treatment failure included sixty-three coinfected adults [median age: 30 years interquartile range (IQR) 27-35], median CD4 count: 56 cells/μL (IQR 38-113). KAtex results at VL diagnosis were negative in 11 (17%), weak/moderate in 17 (27%) and strongly-positive in 35 (36%). Twenty (32%) patients had parasitologically-confirmed treatment failure, with a risk of failure of 9% (1/11) with KAtex-negative results, 0% (0/17) for KAtex 1+/2+ and 54% (19/35) for KAtex 3+ results. Compared to KAtex-negative patients, KAtex 3+ patients were at increased risk of treatment failure [odds ratio 11.9 (95% CI 1.4-103.0); P : 0.025]. Forty-four patients were included in the analysis to predict relapse [median age: 31 years (IQR 28-35), median CD4 count: 116 cells/μL (IQR 95-181)]. When achieving VL cure, KAtex results were negative in 19 (43%), weak/moderate (1+/2+) in 10 (23%), and strongly positive (3+) in 15 patients (34%). Over the subsequent 12 months, eight out of 44 patients (18%) relapsed. The predicted 1-year relapse risk was 6% for KAtex-negative results, 14% for KAtex 1

Usefulness of Tricuspid Annular Diameter to Predict Late Right Sided Heart Failure in Patients With Left Ventricular Assist Device.

PubMed

Nakanishi, Koki; Homma, Shunichi; Han, Jiho; Takayama, Hiroo; Colombo, Paolo C; Yuzefpolskaya, Melana; Garan, Arthur R; Farr, Maryjane A; Kurlansky, Paul; Di Tullio, Marco R; Naka, Yoshifumi; Takeda, Koji

2018-07-01

Although late-onset right-sided heart failure is recognized as a clinical problem in the treatment of patients with left ventricular assist devices (LVADs), the mechanism and predictors are unknown. Tricuspid valve (TV) deformation leads to the restriction of the leaflet motion and decreased coaptation, resulting in a functional tricuspid regurgitation that may act as a surrogate marker of late right-sided heart failure. This study aimed to investigate the association of preoperative TV deformation (annulus dilatation and leaflet tethering) with late right-sided heart failure development after continuous-flow LVAD implantation. The study cohort consisted of 274 patients who underwent 2-dimensional echocardiography before LVAD implantation. TV annulus diameter and tethering distance were measured in an apical 4-chamber view. Late right-sided heart failure was defined as right-sided heart failure requiring readmission and medical and/or surgical treatment after initial LVAD implantation. During a mean follow-up of 25.1 ± 19.0 months after LVAD implantation, late right-sided heart failure occurred in 33 patients (12.0%). Multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis demonstrated that TV annulus diameter (hazard ratio 1.221 per 1 mm, p <0.001) was significantly associated with late right-sided heart failure development, whereas leaflet tethering distance was not. The best cut-off value of the TV annular diameter was 41 mm (area under the curve 0.787). Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that patients with dilated TV annulus (TV annular diameter ≥41 mm) exhibited a significantly higher late right-sided heart failure occurrence than those without TV annular enlargement (log-rank p <0.001). In conclusion, preoperative TV annulus diameter, but not leaflet tethering distance, predicted the occurrence of late right-sided heart failure after LVAD implantation. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Light water reactor lower head failure analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rempe, J.L.; Chavez, S.A.; Thinnes, G.L.

1993-10-01

This document presents the results from a US Nuclear Regulatory Commission-sponsored research program to investigate the mode and timing of vessel lower head failure. Major objectives of the analysis were to identify plausible failure mechanisms and to develop a method for determining which failure mode would occur first in different light water reactor designs and accident conditions. Failure mechanisms, such as tube ejection, tube rupture, global vessel failure, and localized vessel creep rupture, were studied. Newly developed models and existing models were applied to predict which failure mechanism would occur first in various severe accident scenarios. So that a broadermore » range of conditions could be considered simultaneously, calculations relied heavily on models with closed-form or simplified numerical solution techniques. Finite element techniques-were employed for analytical model verification and examining more detailed phenomena. High-temperature creep and tensile data were obtained for predicting vessel and penetration structural response.« less

Multinational Assessment of Accuracy of Equations for Predicting Risk of Kidney Failure: A Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Tangri, Navdeep; Grams, Morgan E; Levey, Andrew S; Coresh, Josef; Appel, Lawrence J; Astor, Brad C; Chodick, Gabriel; Collins, Allan J; Djurdjev, Ognjenka; Elley, C Raina; Evans, Marie; Garg, Amit X; Hallan, Stein I; Inker, Lesley A; Ito, Sadayoshi; Jee, Sun Ha; Kovesdy, Csaba P; Kronenberg, Florian; Heerspink, Hiddo J Lambers; Marks, Angharad; Nadkarni, Girish N; Navaneethan, Sankar D; Nelson, Robert G; Titze, Stephanie; Sarnak, Mark J; Stengel, Benedicte; Woodward, Mark; Iseki, Kunitoshi

2016-01-12

Identifying patients at risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression may facilitate more optimal nephrology care. Kidney failure risk equations, including such factors as age, sex, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and calcium and phosphate concentrations, were previously developed and validated in 2 Canadian cohorts. Validation in other regions and in CKD populations not under the care of a nephrologist is needed. To evaluate the accuracy of the risk equations across different geographic regions and patient populations through individual participant data meta-analysis. Thirty-one cohorts, including 721,357 participants with CKD stages 3 to 5 in more than 30 countries spanning 4 continents, were studied. These cohorts collected data from 1982 through 2014. Cohorts participating in the CKD Prognosis Consortium with data on end-stage renal disease. Data were obtained and statistical analyses were performed between July 2012 and June 2015. Using the risk factors from the original risk equations, cohort-specific hazard ratios were estimated and combined using random-effects meta-analysis to form new pooled kidney failure risk equations. Original and pooled kidney failure risk equation performance was compared, and the need for regional calibration factors was assessed. Kidney failure (treatment by dialysis or kidney transplant). During a median follow-up of 4 years of 721,357 participants with CKD, 23,829 cases kidney failure were observed. The original risk equations achieved excellent discrimination (ability to differentiate those who developed kidney failure from those who did not) across all cohorts (overall C statistic, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.89-0.92 at 2 years; C statistic at 5 years, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.86-0.90); discrimination in subgroups by age, race, and diabetes status was similar. There was no improvement with the pooled equations. Calibration (the difference between observed and predicted risk) was adequate in North American cohorts, but the original risk

Early non-response to certolizumab pegol in rheumatoid arthritis predicts treatment failure at one year. Data from a randomised phase III clinical trial.

PubMed

Berenbaum, Francis; Pham, Thao; Claudepierre, Pascal; de Chalus, Thibault; Joubert, Jean-Michel; Saadoun, Carine; Riou França, Lionel; Fautrel, Bruno

2018-01-01

To compare different early clinical criteria of non-response determined at three months as predictors of clinical failure at one year in patients with rheumatoid arthritis starting therapy with certolizumab pegol. Data were derived from a randomised Phase III clinical trial in patients with rheumatoid arthritis who failed to respond to methotrexate monotherapy. Patients included in this post-hoc analysis were treated with certolizumab pegol (400mg qd reduced to 200mg qd after one month) and with methotrexate. The study duration was twelve months. Response at three months was determined with the American College of Rheumatology-50, Disease Assessment Score-28 ESR, Health Assessment Questionnaire and the Clinical Disease Activity Index. The performance of these measures at predicting treatment failure at twelve months defined by the American College of Rheumatology-50 criteria was determined, using the positive predictive values as the principal evaluation criterion. Three hundred and eighty two patients were available for analysis and 225 completed the twelve-month follow-up. At Week 52, 149 (38.1%) patients met the American College of Rheumatology-50 response criterion. Positive predictive values ranged from 81% for a decrease in Health Assessment Questionnaire- Disability index score since baseline >0.22 to 95% for a decrease in Disease Assessment Score-28 score since baseline≥1.2. Sensitivity was≤70% in all cases. Performance of these measures was similar irrespective of the definition of treatment failure at 12months. Simple clinical measures of disease activity can predict future treatment failure reliably and are appropriate for implementing treat-to-target treatment strategies in everyday practice. Copyright © 2017 Société française de rhumatologie. Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Impact of different variables on the outcome of patients with clinically confined prostate carcinoma: prediction of pathologic stage and biochemical failure using an artificial neural network.

PubMed

Ziada, A M; Lisle, T C; Snow, P B; Levine, R F; Miller, G; Crawford, E D

2001-04-15

The advent of advanced computing techniques has provided the opportunity to analyze clinical data using artificial intelligence techniques. This study was designed to determine whether a neural network could be developed using preoperative prognostic indicators to predict the pathologic stage and time of biochemical failure for patients who undergo radical prostatectomy. The preoperative information included TNM stage, prostate size, prostate specific antigen (PSA) level, biopsy results (Gleason score and percentage of positive biopsy), as well as patient age. All 309 patients underwent radical prostatectomy at the University of Colorado Health Sciences Center. The data from all patients were used to train a multilayer perceptron artificial neural network. The failure rate was defined as a rise in the PSA level > 0.2 ng/mL. The biochemical failure rate in the data base used was 14.2%. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to validate the results. The neural network statistics for the validation set showed a sensitivity and specificity of 79% and 81%, respectively, for the prediction of pathologic stage with an overall accuracy of 80% compared with an overall accuracy of 67% using the multivariate regression analysis. The sensitivity and specificity for the prediction of failure were 67% and 85%, respectively, demonstrating a high confidence in predicting failure. The overall accuracy rates for the artificial neural network and the multivariate analysis were similar. Neural networks can offer a convenient vehicle for clinicians to assess the preoperative risk of disease progression for patients who are about to undergo radical prostatectomy. Continued investigation of this approach with larger data sets seems warranted. Copyright 2001 American Cancer Society.

Prediction of Hip Failure Load: In Vitro Study of 80 Femurs Using Three Imaging Methods and Finite Element Models-The European Fracture Study (EFFECT).

PubMed

Pottecher, Pierre; Engelke, Klaus; Duchemin, Laure; Museyko, Oleg; Moser, Thomas; Mitton, David; Vicaut, Eric; Adams, Judith; Skalli, Wafa; Laredo, Jean Denis; Bousson, Valérie

2016-09-01

Purpose To evaluate the performance of three imaging methods (radiography, dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry [DXA], and quantitative computed tomography [CT]) and that of a numerical analysis with finite element modeling (FEM) in the prediction of failure load of the proximal femur and to identify the best densitometric or geometric predictors of hip failure load. Materials and Methods Institutional review board approval was obtained. A total of 40 pairs of excised cadaver femurs (mean patient age at time of death, 82 years ± 12 [standard deviation]) were examined with (a) radiography to measure geometric parameters (lengths, angles, and cortical thicknesses), (b) DXA (reference standard) to determine areal bone mineral densities (BMDs), and (c) quantitative CT with dedicated three-dimensional analysis software to determine volumetric BMDs and geometric parameters (neck axis length, cortical thicknesses, volumes, and moments of inertia), and (d) quantitative CT-based FEM to calculate a numerical value of failure load. The 80 femurs were fractured via mechanical testing, with random assignment of one femur from each pair to the single-limb stance configuration (hereafter, stance configuration) and assignment of the paired femur to the sideways fall configuration (hereafter, side configuration). Descriptive statistics, univariate correlations, and stepwise regression models were obtained for each imaging method and for FEM to enable us to predict failure load in both configurations. Results Statistics reported are for stance and side configurations, respectively. For radiography, the strongest correlation with mechanical failure load was obtained by using a geometric parameter combined with a cortical thickness (r(2) = 0.66, P < .001; r(2) = 0.65, P < .001). For DXA, the strongest correlation with mechanical failure load was obtained by using total BMD (r(2) = 0.73, P < .001) and trochanteric BMD (r(2) = 0.80, P < .001). For quantitative CT, in both configurations

Three-dimensional Simulation and Prediction of Solenoid Valve Failure Mechanism Based on Finite Element Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jianfeng; Xiao, Mingqing; Liang, Yajun; Tang, Xilang; Li, Chao

2018-01-01

The solenoid valve is a kind of basic automation component applied widely. It’s significant to analyze and predict its degradation failure mechanism to improve the reliability of solenoid valve and do research on prolonging life. In this paper, a three-dimensional finite element analysis model of solenoid valve is established based on ANSYS Workbench software. A sequential coupling method used to calculate temperature filed and mechanical stress field of solenoid valve is put forward. The simulation result shows the sequential coupling method can calculate and analyze temperature and stress distribution of solenoid valve accurately, which has been verified through the accelerated life test. Kalman filtering algorithm is introduced to the data processing, which can effectively reduce measuring deviation and restore more accurate data information. Based on different driving current, a kind of failure mechanism which can easily cause the degradation of coils is obtained and an optimization design scheme of electro-insulating rubbers is also proposed. The high temperature generated by driving current and the thermal stress resulting from thermal expansion can easily cause the degradation of coil wires, which will decline the electrical resistance of coils and result in the eventual failure of solenoid valve. The method of finite element analysis can be applied to fault diagnosis and prognostic of various solenoid valves and improve the reliability of solenoid valve’s health management.

Value of routine investigations to predict loop diuretic down-titration success in stable heart failure.

PubMed

Martens, Pieter; Verbrugge, Frederik H; Boonen, Levinia; Nijst, Petra; Dupont, Matthias; Mullens, Wilfried

2018-01-01

Guidelines advocate down-titration of loop diuretics in chronic heart failure (CHF) when patients have no signs of volume overload. Limited data are available on the expected success rate of this practice or how routine diagnostic tests might help steering this process. Fifty ambulatory CHF-patients on stable neurohumoral blocker/diuretic therapy for at least 3months without any clinical sign of volume overload were prospectively included to undergo loop diuretic down-titration. All patients underwent a similar pre-down-titration evaluation consisting of a dyspnea scoring, physical examination, transthoracic echocardiography (diastolic function, right ventricular function, cardiac filling pressures and valvular disease), blood sample (serum creatinine, plasma NT-pro-BNP and neurohormones). Loop diuretic maintenance dose was subsequently reduced by 50% or stopped if dose was ≤40mg furosemide equivalents. Successful down-titration was defined as a persistent dose reduction after 30days without weight increase >1.5kg or new-onset symptoms of worsening heart failure. At 30-day follow-up, down-titration was successful in 62% (n=31). In 12/19 patients exhibiting down-titration failure, this occurred within the first week. Physical examination, transthoracic echocardiography and laboratory analysis had limited predictive capability to detect patients with down-titration success/failure (positive likelihood-ratios below 1.5, or area under the curve [AUC] non-statically different from AUC=0.5). Loop diuretic down-titration is feasible in a majority of stable CHF patients in which the treating clinician felt continuation of loops was unnecessary to sustain euvolemia. Importantly, routine diagnostics which suggest euvolemia, have limited diagnostic impact on the post-test probability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Wind Turbine Failures - Tackling current Problems in Failure Data Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reder, M. D.; Gonzalez, E.; Melero, J. J.

2016-09-01

The wind industry has been growing significantly over the past decades, resulting in a remarkable increase in installed wind power capacity. Turbine technologies are rapidly evolving in terms of complexity and size, and there is an urgent need for cost effective operation and maintenance (O&M) strategies. Especially unplanned downtime represents one of the main cost drivers of a modern wind farm. Here, reliability and failure prediction models can enable operators to apply preventive O&M strategies rather than corrective actions. In order to develop these models, the failure rates and downtimes of wind turbine (WT) components have to be understood profoundly. This paper is focused on tackling three of the main issues related to WT failure analyses. These are, the non-uniform data treatment, the scarcity of available failure analyses, and the lack of investigation on alternative data sources. For this, a modernised form of an existing WT taxonomy is introduced. Additionally, an extensive analysis of historical failure and downtime data of more than 4300 turbines is presented. Finally, the possibilities to encounter the lack of available failure data by complementing historical databases with Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) alarms are evaluated.

Prediction of posthepatectomy liver failure using transient elastography in patients with hepatitis B related hepatocellular carcinoma.

PubMed

Lei, Jie-Wen; Ji, Xiao-Yu; Hong, Jun-Feng; Li, Wan-Bin; Chen, Yan; Pan, Yan; Guo, Jia

2017-12-29

It is essential to accurately predict Postoperative liver failure (PHLF) which is a life-threatening complication. Liver hardness measurement (LSM) is widely used in non-invasive assessment of liver fibrosis. The aims of this study were to explore the application of preoperative liver stiffness measurements (LSM) by transient elastography in predicting postoperative liver failure (PHLF) in patients with hepatitis B related hepatocellular carcinoma. The study included 247 consecutive patients with hepatitis B related hepatocellular carcinoma who underwent hepatectomy between May 2015 and September 2015. Detailed preoperative examinations including LSM were performed before hepatectomy. The endpoint was the development of PHLF. All of the patients had chronic hepatitis B defined as the presence of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) for more than 6 months and 76 (30.8%) had cirrhosis. PHLF occurred in 37 (14.98%) patients. Preoperative LSM (odds ratio, OR, 1.21; 95% confidence interval, 95% CI: 1.13-1.29; P < 0.001) and international normalized ratio (INR) (OR, 1.07; 95% CI: 1.01-1.12; P < 0.05) were revealed to be independent risk factors for PHLF, and a new model was defined as LSM-INR index (LSM-INR index = 0.191*LSM + 6.317*INR-11.154). The optimal cutoff values of LSM and LSM-INR index for predicting PHLF were 14 kPa (AUC 0.86, 95% CI: 0.811-0.901, P < 0.001) and -1.92 (AUC 0.87, 95% CI: 0.822-0.909, P < 0.001), respectively. LSM can be helpful for surgeons to make therapeutic decisions in patients with hepatitis B related hepatocellular carcinoma.

Multiaxial Temperature- and Time-Dependent Failure Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, David; McLennan, Michael; Anderson, Gregory; Macon, David; Batista-Rodriquez, Alicia

2003-01-01

A temperature- and time-dependent mathematical model predicts the conditions for failure of a material subjected to multiaxial stress. The model was initially applied to a filled epoxy below its glass-transition temperature, and is expected to be applicable to other materials, at least below their glass-transition temperatures. The model is justified simply by the fact that it closely approximates the experimentally observed failure behavior of this material: The multiaxiality of the model has been confirmed (see figure) and the model has been shown to be applicable at temperatures from -20 to 115 F (-29 to 46 C) and to predict tensile failures of constant-load and constant-load-rate specimens with failure times ranging from minutes to months..

Anesthetic management in pediatric orthotopic liver transplant for fulminant hepatic failure and end-stage liver disease.

PubMed

Camkıran, Aynur; Araz, Coşkun; Seyhan Ballı, Sevgi; Torgay, Adnan; Moray, Gökhan; Pirat, Arash; Arslan, Gülnaz; Haberal, Mehmet

2014-03-01

We assessed the anesthetic management and short-term morbidity and mortality in pediatrics patients who underwent an orthotopic liver transplant for fulminant hepatic failure or end-stage liver disease in a university hospital. We retrospectively analyzed the records of children who underwent orthotopic liver transplant from May 2002 to May 2012. Patients were categorized into 2 groups: group fulminant hepatic failure (n=22) and group end-stage liver disease (n=19). Perioperative data related to anesthetic management and intraoperative events were collected along with information related to postoperative course and survival to hospital discharge. Mean age and weight for groups fulminant hepatic failure and end-stage liver disease were 8.6 ± 2.7 years and 10.8 ± 3.8 years (P = .04) and 29.2 ± 11.9 kg and 33.7 ± 16.9 kg (P = .46). There were no differences between the groups regarding length of anhepatic phase (65 ± 21 min vs 73 ± 18 min, P = .13) and operation time (9.1 ± 1.6 h vs 9.5 ± 1.8 h, P = .23). When compared with the patients in group fulminant hepatic failure, those in group end-stage liver disease more commonly had a Glasgow Coma score of 7 or less (32% vs 6%, P = .04). Compared with patients in group fulminant hepatic failure, those in group end-stage liver disease were more frequently extubated in the operating room (31.8% versus 89.5% P < .001). Postoperative duration of mechanical ventilation (2.78 ± 4.02 d vs 2.85 ± 10.21 d, P = .05), and the mortality rates at 1 year after orthotopic liver transplant (7.3% vs 0%, P = .09) were similar between the groups. During pediatric orthotopic liver transplant, those children with fulminant hepatic failure require more intraoperative fluids and more frequent perioperative mechanical ventilation than those with end-stage liver disease.

The ADHF/NT-proBNP risk score to predict 1-year mortality in hospitalized patients with advanced decompensated heart failure.

PubMed

Scrutinio, Domenico; Ammirati, Enrico; Guida, Pietro; Passantino, Andrea; Raimondo, Rosa; Guida, Valentina; Sarzi Braga, Simona; Canova, Paolo; Mastropasqua, Filippo; Frigerio, Maria; Lagioia, Rocco; Oliva, Fabrizio

2014-04-01

The acute decompensated heart failure/N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (ADHF/NT-proBNP) score is a validated risk scoring system that predicts mortality in hospitalized heart failure patients with a wide range of left ventricular ejection fractions (LVEFs). We sought to assess discrimination and calibration of the score when applied to patients with advanced decompensated heart failure (AHF). We studied 445 patients hospitalized for AHF, defined by the presence of severe symptoms of worsening HF at admission, severely depressed LVEF, and the need for intravenous diuretic and/or inotropic drugs. The primary outcome was cumulative (in-hospital and post-discharge) mortality and post-discharge 1-year mortality. Separate analyses were performed for patients aged ≤ 70 years. A Seattle Heart Failure Score (SHFS) was calculated for each patient discharged alive. During follow-up, 144 patients (32.4%) died, and 69 (15.5%) underwent heart transplantation (HT) or ventricular assist device (VAD) implantation. After accounting for the competing events (VAD/HT), the ADHF/NT-proBNP score's C-statistic for cumulative mortality was 0.738 in the overall cohort and 0.771 in patients aged ≤ 70 years. The C-statistic for post-discharge mortality was 0.741 and 0.751, respectively. Adding prior (≤6 months) hospitalizations for HF to the score increased the C-statistic for post-discharge mortality to 0.759 in the overall cohort and to 0.774 in patients aged ≤ 70 years. Predicted and observed mortality rates by quartiles of score were highly correlated. The SHFS demonstrated adequate discrimination but underestimated the risk. The ADHF/NT-proBNP risk calculator is available at http://www.fsm.it/fsm/file/NTproBNPscore.zip. Our data suggest that the ADHF/NT-proBNP score may efficiently predict mortality in patients hospitalized with AHF. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Antithrombin III is associated with acute liver failure in patients with end-stage heart failure undergoing mechanical circulatory support.

PubMed

Hoefer, Judith; Ulmer, Hanno; Kilo, Juliane; Margreiter, Raimund; Grimm, Michael; Mair, Peter; Ruttmann, Elfriede

2017-06-01

There are few data on the role of liver dysfunction in patients with end-stage heart failure supported by mechanical circulatory support. The aim of our study was to investigate predictors for acute liver failure in patients with end-stage heart failure undergoing mechanical circulatory support. A consecutive 164 patients with heart failure with New York Heart Association class IV undergoing mechanical circulatory support were investigated for acute liver failure using the King's College criteria. Clinical characteristics of heart failure together with hemodynamic and laboratory values were analyzed by logistic regression. A total of 45 patients (27.4%) with heart failure developed subsequent acute liver failure with a hospital mortality of 88.9%. Duration of heart failure, cause, cardiopulmonary resuscitation, use of vasopressors, central venous pressure, pulmonary capillary wedge pressure, pulmonary pulsatility index, cardiac index, and transaminases were not significantly associated with acute liver failure. Repeated decompensation, atrial fibrillation (P < .001) and the use of inotropes (P = .007), mean arterial (P = .005) and pulmonary pressures (P = .042), cholinesterase, international normalized ratio, bilirubin, lactate, and pH (P < .001) were predictive of acute liver failure in univariate analysis only. In multivariable analysis, decreased antithrombin III was the strongest single measurement indicating acute liver failure (relative risk per %, 0.84; 95% confidence interval, 0.77-0.93; P = .001) and remained an independent predictor when adjustment for the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score was performed (relative risk per %, 0.89; 95% confidence interval, 0.80-0.99; P = .031). Antithrombin III less than 59.5% was identified as a cutoff value to predict acute liver failure with a corresponding sensitivity of 81% and specificity of 87%. In addition to the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score, decreased antithrombin III activity tends

Evaluation of a Linear Cumulative Damage Failure Model for Epoxy Adhesive

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, David E.; Batista-Rodriquez, Alicia; Macon, David; Totman, Peter; McCool, Alex (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Recently a significant amount of work has been conducted to provide more complex and accurate material models for use in the evaluation of adhesive bondlines. Some of this has been prompted by recent studies into the effects of residual stresses on the integrity of bondlines. Several techniques have been developed for the analysis of bondline residual stresses. Key to these analyses is the criterion that is used for predicting failure. Residual stress loading of an adhesive bondline can occur over the life of the component. For many bonded systems, this can be several years. It is impractical to directly characterize failure of adhesive bondlines under a constant load for several years. Therefore, alternative approaches for predictions of bondline failures are required. In the past, cumulative damage failure models have been developed. These models have ranged from very simple to very complex. This paper documents the generation and evaluation of some of the most simple linear damage accumulation tensile failure models for an epoxy adhesive. This paper shows how several variations on the failure model were generated and presents an evaluation of the accuracy of these failure models in predicting creep failure of the adhesive. The paper shows that a simple failure model can be generated from short-term failure data for accurate predictions of long-term adhesive performance.

Analysis of Machine Learning Techniques for Heart Failure Readmissions.

PubMed

Mortazavi, Bobak J; Downing, Nicholas S; Bucholz, Emily M; Dharmarajan, Kumar; Manhapra, Ajay; Li, Shu-Xia; Negahban, Sahand N; Krumholz, Harlan M

2016-11-01

The current ability to predict readmissions in patients with heart failure is modest at best. It is unclear whether machine learning techniques that address higher dimensional, nonlinear relationships among variables would enhance prediction. We sought to compare the effectiveness of several machine learning algorithms for predicting readmissions. Using data from the Telemonitoring to Improve Heart Failure Outcomes trial, we compared the effectiveness of random forests, boosting, random forests combined hierarchically with support vector machines or logistic regression (LR), and Poisson regression against traditional LR to predict 30- and 180-day all-cause readmissions and readmissions because of heart failure. We randomly selected 50% of patients for a derivation set, and a validation set comprised the remaining patients, validated using 100 bootstrapped iterations. We compared C statistics for discrimination and distributions of observed outcomes in risk deciles for predictive range. In 30-day all-cause readmission prediction, the best performing machine learning model, random forests, provided a 17.8% improvement over LR (mean C statistics, 0.628 and 0.533, respectively). For readmissions because of heart failure, boosting improved the C statistic by 24.9% over LR (mean C statistic 0.678 and 0.543, respectively). For 30-day all-cause readmission, the observed readmission rates in the lowest and highest deciles of predicted risk with random forests (7.8% and 26.2%, respectively) showed a much wider separation than LR (14.2% and 16.4%, respectively). Machine learning methods improved the prediction of readmission after hospitalization for heart failure compared with LR and provided the greatest predictive range in observed readmission rates. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Nucleation, growth and localisation of microcracks: implications for predictability of rock failure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Main, I. G.; Kun, F.; Pál, G.; Jánosi, Z.

2016-12-01

predictive power of forecasts of failure time in such media.

Predictors of treatment failure in young patients undergoing in vitro fertilization.

PubMed

Jacobs, Marni B; Klonoff-Cohen, Hillary; Agarwal, Sanjay; Kritz-Silverstein, Donna; Lindsay, Suzanne; Garzo, V Gabriel

2016-08-01

The purpose of the study was to evaluate whether routinely collected clinical factors can predict in vitro fertilization (IVF) failure among young, "good prognosis" patients predominantly with secondary infertility who are less than 35 years of age. Using de-identified clinic records, 414 women <35 years undergoing their first autologous IVF cycle were identified. Logistic regression was used to identify patient-driven clinical factors routinely collected during fertility treatment that could be used to model predicted probability of cycle failure. One hundred ninety-seven patients with both primary and secondary infertility had a failed IVF cycle, and 217 with secondary infertility had a successful live birth. None of the women with primary infertility had a successful live birth. The significant predictors for IVF cycle failure among young patients were fewer previous live births, history of biochemical pregnancies or spontaneous abortions, lower baseline antral follicle count, higher total gonadotropin dose, unknown infertility diagnosis, and lack of at least one fair to good quality embryo. The full model showed good predictive value (c = 0.885) for estimating risk of cycle failure; at ≥80 % predicted probability of failure, sensitivity = 55.4 %, specificity = 97.5 %, positive predictive value = 95.4 %, and negative predictive value = 69.8 %. If this predictive model is validated in future studies, it could be beneficial for predicting IVF failure in good prognosis women under the age of 35 years.

Usefulness of admission gamma-glutamyltransferase level for predicting new-onset heart failure in patients with acute coronary syndrome with left ventricular systolic dysfunction.

PubMed

Sarıkaya, Savaş; Aydın, Gülay; Yücel, Hasan; Kaya, Hakkı; Yıldırımlı, Kutay; Başaran, Ahmet; Zorlu, Ali; Sahin, Safak; Akyol, Lütfü; Bulut, Musa

2014-04-01

Our aim was to determine whether there is a relationship between admission gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) and subsequent heart failure hospitalizations in patients with acute coronary syndrome. We selected 123 patients with newly diagnosed acute coronary syndrome of ejection fraction (EF) <45%. Patients were followed 15±10 months, and the relationship between admission GGT level and hospitalization because of heart failure during the follow-up was examined. Twenty-three (18.7%) patients were hospitalized during the follow-up of 15±10 months. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis showed that the cut-off point of admission GGT related to predict hospitalization was 49 IU/L, with a sensitivity of 81.7% and specificity of 65.2%. Increased GGT >49 IU/L on admission, presence of hypertension and hyperlipidemia, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), right ventricular dysfunction, moderate-to-severe mitral regurgitation, alanine aminotransferase level, and antiplatelet agent usage were found to have prognostic significance in univariate Cox proportional hazards analysis. In multivariate Cox proportional-hazards model, increased GGT >49 IU/L on admission (hazard ratio [HR] 2.663, p=0.047), presence of hypertension (HR 4.107, p=0.007), and LVEF (HR 0.911, p=0.002) were found to be independent factors to predict new-onset heart failure requiring hospitalization. Hospitalization in heart failure was associated with increased admission GGT levels. Increased admission GGT level in acute coronary syndrome with heart failure should be monitored closely and treated aggressively.

Mechanical Ventilation in Acute Hypoxemic Respiratory Failure: A Review of New Strategies for the Practicing Hospitalist

PubMed Central

Wilson, Jennifer G.; Matthay, Michael A.

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND The goal of mechanical ventilation in acute hypoxemic respiratory failure is to support adequate gas exchange without harming the lungs. How patients are mechanically ventilated can significantly impact their ultimate outcomes. METHODS This review focuses on emerging evidence regarding strategies for mechanical ventilation in patients with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure including: low tidal volume ventilation in the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), novel ventilator modes as alternatives to low tidal volume ventilation, adjunctive strategies that may enhance recovery in ARDS, the use of lung-protective strategies in patients without ARDS, rescue therapies in refractory hypoxemia, and an evidence-based approach to weaning from mechanical ventilation. RESULTS Once a patient is intubated and mechanically ventilated, low tidal volume ventilation remains the best strategy in ARDS. Adjunctive therapies in ARDS include a conservative fluid management strategy, as well as neuromuscular blockade and prone positioning in moderate-to-severe disease. There is also emerging evidence that a lung-protective strategy may benefit non-ARDS patients. For patients with refractory hypoxemia, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation should be considered. Once the patient demonstrates signs of recovery, the best approach to liberation from mechanical ventilation involves daily spontaneous breathing trials and protocolized assessment of readiness for extubation. CONCLUSIONS Prompt recognition of ARDS and use of lung-protective ventilation, as well as evidence-based adjunctive therapies, remain the cornerstones of caring for patients with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure. In the absence of contraindications, it is reasonable to consider lung-protective ventilation in non-ARDS patients as well, though the evidence supporting this practice is less conclusive. PMID:24733692

Landslide Life-Cycle Monitoring and Failure Prediction using Satellite Remote Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouali, E. H. Y.; Oommen, T.; Escobar-Wolf, R. P.

2017-12-01

The consequences of slope instability are severe across the world: the US Geological Survey estimates that, each year, the United States spends $3.5B to repair damages caused by landslides, 25-50 deaths occur, real estate values in affected areas are reduced, productivity decreases, and natural environments are destroyed. A 2012 study by D.N. Petley found that loss of life is typically underestimated and, between 2004 and 2010, 2,620 fatal landslides caused 32,322 deaths around the world. These statistics have led research into the study of landslide monitoring and forecasting. More specifically, this presentation focuses on assessing the potential for using satellite-based optical and radar imagery toward overall landslide life-cycle monitoring and prediction. Radar images from multiple satellites (ERS-1, ERS-2, ENVISAT, and COSMO-SkyMed) are processed using the Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) technique. Optical images, from the Worldview-2 satellite, are orthorectified and processed using the Co-registration of Optically Sensed Images and Correlation (COSI-Corr) algorithm. Both approaches, process stacks of respective images, yield ground displacement rate values. Ground displacement information is used to generate `inverse-velocity vs time' plots, a proxy relationship that is used to estimate landslide occurrence (slope failure) and derived from a relationship quantified by T. Fukuzono in 1985 and B. Voight in 1988 between a material's time of failure and the strain rate applied to that material. Successful laboratory tests have demonstrated the usefulness of `inverse-velocity vs time' plots. This presentation will investigate the applicability of this approach with remote sensing on natural landslides in the western United States.

Serum Irisin Predicts Mortality Risk in Acute Heart Failure Patients.

PubMed

Shen, Shutong; Gao, Rongrong; Bei, Yihua; Li, Jin; Zhang, Haifeng; Zhou, Yanli; Yao, Wenming; Xu, Dongjie; Zhou, Fang; Jin, Mengchao; Wei, Siqi; Wang, Kai; Xu, Xuejuan; Li, Yongqin; Xiao, Junjie; Li, Xinli

2017-01-01

Irisin is a peptide hormone cleaved from a plasma membrane protein fibronectin type III domain containing protein 5 (FNDC5). Emerging studies have indicated association between serum irisin and many major chronic diseases including cardiovascular diseases. However, the role of serum irisin as a predictor for mortality risk in acute heart failure (AHF) patients is not clear. AHF patients were enrolled and serum was collected at the admission and all patients were followed up for 1 year. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay was used to measure serum irisin levels. To explore predictors for AHF mortality, the univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis, and receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis were used. To determine the role of serum irisin levels in predicting survival, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used. In this study, 161 AHF patients were enrolled and serum irisin level was found to be significantly higher in patients deceased in 1-year follow-up. The univariate logistic regression analysis identified 18 variables associated with all-cause mortality in AHF patients, while the multivariate logistic regression analysis identified 2 variables namely blood urea nitrogen and serum irisin. ROC curve analysis indicated that blood urea nitrogen and the most commonly used biomarker, NT-pro-BNP, displayed poor prognostic value for AHF (AUCs ≤ 0.700) compared to serum irisin (AUC = 0.753). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis demonstrated that AHF patients with higher serum irisin had significantly higher mortality (P<0.001). Collectively, our study identified serum irisin as a predictive biomarker for 1-year all-cause mortality in AHF patients though large multicenter studies are highly needed. © 2017 The Author(s). Published by S. Karger AG, Basel.

A data-driven feature extraction framework for predicting the severity of condition of congestive heart failure patients.

PubMed

Sideris, Costas; Alshurafa, Nabil; Pourhomayoun, Mohammad; Shahmohammadi, Farhad; Samy, Lauren; Sarrafzadeh, Majid

2015-01-01

In this paper, we propose a novel methodology for utilizing disease diagnostic information to predict severity of condition for Congestive Heart Failure (CHF) patients. Our methodology relies on a novel, clustering-based, feature extraction framework using disease diagnostic information. To reduce the dimensionality we identify disease clusters using cooccurence frequencies. We then utilize these clusters as features to predict patient severity of condition. We build our clustering and feature extraction algorithm using the 2012 National Inpatient Sample (NIS), Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) which contains 7 million discharge records and ICD-9-CM codes. The proposed framework is tested on Ronald Reagan UCLA Medical Center Electronic Health Records (EHR) from 3041 patients. We compare our cluster-based feature set with another that incorporates the Charlson comorbidity score as a feature and demonstrate an accuracy improvement of up to 14% in the predictability of the severity of condition.

Micromechanics of failure waves in glass. 2: Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Espinosa, H.D.; Xu, Y.; Brar, N.S.

1997-08-01

In an attempt to elucidate the failure mechanism responsible for the so-called failure waves in glass, numerical simulations of plate and rod impact experiments, with a multiple-plane model, have been performed. These simulations show that the failure wave phenomenon can be modeled by the nucleation and growth of penny-shaped shear defects from the specimen surface to its interior. Lateral stress increase, reduction of spall strength,and progressive attenuation of axial stress behind the failure front are properly predicted by the multiple-plane model. Numerical simulations of high-strain-rate pressure-shear experiments indicate that the model predicts reasonably well the shear resistance of the materialmore » at strain rates as high as 1 {times} 10{sup 6}/s. The agreement is believed to be the result of the model capability in simulating damage-induced anisotropy. By examining the kinetics of the failure process in plate experiments, the authors show that the progressive glass spallation in the vicinity of the failure front and the rate of increase in lateral stress are more consistent with a representation of inelasticity based on shear-activated flow surfaces, inhomogeneous flow, and microcracking, rather than pure microcracking. In the former mechanism, microcracks are likely formed at a later time at the intersection of flow surfaces, in the case of rod-on-rod impact, stress and radial velocity histories predicted by the microcracking model are in agreement with the experimental measurements. Stress attenuation, pulse duration, and release structure are properly simulated. It is shown that failure wave speeds in excess to 3,600 m/s are required for adequate prediction in rod radial expansion.« less

Network pharmacology-based strategy for predicting active ingredients and potential targets of Yangxinshi tablet for treating heart failure.

PubMed

Chen, Langdong; Cao, Yan; Zhang, Hai; Lv, Diya; Zhao, Yahong; Liu, Yanjun; Ye, Guan; Chai, Yifeng

2018-01-31

Yangxinshi tablet (YXST) is an effective treatment for heart failure and myocardial infarction; it consists of 13 herbal medicines formulated according to traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) practices. It has been used for the treatment of cardiovascular disease for many years in China. In this study, a network pharmacology-based strategy was used to elucidate the mechanism of action of YXST for the treatment of heart failure. Cardiovascular disease-related protein target and compound databases were constructed for YXST. A molecular docking platform was used to predict the protein targets of YXST. The affinity between proteins and ingredients was determined using surface plasmon resonance (SPR) assays. The action modes between targets and representative ingredients were calculated using Glide docking, and the related pathways were predicted using the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) database. A protein target database containing 924 proteins was constructed; 179 compounds in YXST were identified, and 48 compounds with high relevance to the proteins were defined as representative ingredients. Thirty-four protein targets of the 48 representative ingredients were analyzed and classified into two categories: immune and cardiovascular systems. The SPR assay and molecular docking partly validated the interplay between protein targets and representative ingredients. Moreover, 28 pathways related to heart failure were identified, which provided directions for further research on YXST. This study demonstrated that the cardiovascular protective effect of YXST mainly involved the immune and cardiovascular systems. Through the research strategy based on network pharmacology, we analysis the complex system of YXST and found 48 representative compounds, 34 proteins and 28 related pathways of YXST, which could help us understand the underlying mechanism of YSXT's anti-heart failure effect. The network-based investigation could help researchers simplify the complex

Failure analysis of thick composite cylinders under external pressure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Caiazzo, A.; Rosen, B. W.

1992-01-01

Failure of thick section composites due to local compression strength and overall structural instability is treated. Effects of material nonlinearity, imperfect fiber architecture, and structural imperfections upon anticipated failure stresses are determined. Comparisons with experimental data for a series of test cylinders are described. Predicting the failure strength of composite structures requires consideration of stability and material strength modes of failure using linear and nonlinear analysis techniques. Material strength prediction requires the accurate definition of the local multiaxial stress state in the material. An elasticity solution for the linear static analysis of thick anisotropic cylinders and rings is used herein to predict the axisymmetric stress state in the cylinders. Asymmetric nonlinear behavior due to initial cylinder out of roundness and the effects of end closure structure are treated using finite element methods. It is assumed that local fiber or ply waviness is an important factor in the initiation of material failure. An analytical model for the prediction of compression failure of fiber composites, which includes the effects of fiber misalignments, matrix inelasticity, and multiaxial applied stresses is used for material strength calculations. Analytical results are compared to experimental data for a series of glass and carbon fiber reinforced epoxy cylinders subjected to external pressure. Recommendations for pretest characterization and other experimental issues are presented. Implications for material and structural design are discussed.

RSA prediction of high failure rate for the uncoated Interax TKA confirmed by meta-analysis.

PubMed

Pijls, Bart G; Nieuwenhuijse, Marc J; Schoones, Jan W; Middeldorp, Saskia; Valstar, Edward R; Nelissen, Rob G H H

2012-04-01

In a previous radiostereometric (RSA) trial the uncoated, uncemented, Interax tibial components showed excessive migration within 2 years compared to HA-coated and cemented tibial components. It was predicted that this type of fixation would have a high failure rate. The purpose of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to investigate whether this RSA prediction was correct. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to determine the revision rate for aseptic loosening of the uncoated and cemented Interax tibial components. 3 studies were included, involving 349 Interax total knee arthroplasties (TKAs) for the comparison of uncoated and cemented fixation. There were 30 revisions: 27 uncoated and 3 cemented components. There was a 3-times higher revision rate for the uncoated Interax components than that for cemented Interax components (OR = 3; 95% CI: 1.4-7.2). This meta-analysis confirms the prediction of a previous RSA trial. The uncoated Interax components showed the highest migration and turned out to have the highest revision rate for aseptic loosening. RSA appears to enable efficient detection of an inferior design as early as 2 years postoperatively in a small group of patients.

Predictions and Experimental Microstructural Characterization of High Strain Rate Failure Modes in Layered Aluminum Composites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khanikar, Prasenjit

Different aluminum alloys can be combined, as composites, for tailored dynamic applications. Most investigations pertaining to metallic alloy layered composites, however, have been based on quasi-static approaches. The dynamic failure of layered metallic composites, therefore, needs to be characterized in terms of strength, toughness, and fracture response. A dislocation-density based crystalline plasticity formulation, finite-element techniques, rational crystallographic orientation relations and a new fracture methodology were used to predict the failure modes associated with the high strain rate behavior of aluminum layered composites. Two alloy layers, a high strength alloy, aluminum 2195, and an aluminum alloy 2139, with high toughness, were modeled with representative microstructures that included precipitates, dispersed particles, and different grain boundary (GB) distributions. The new fracture methodology, based on an overlap method and phantom nodes, is used with a fracture criteria specialized for fracture on different cleavage planes. One of the objectives of this investigation, therefore, was to determine the optimal arrangements of the 2139 and 2195 aluminum alloys for a metallic layered composite that would combine strength, toughness and fracture resistance for high strain-rate applications. Different layer arrangements were investigated for high strain-rate applications, and the optimal arrangement was with the high toughness 2139 layer on the bottom, which provided extensive shear strain localization, and the high strength 2195 layer on the top for high strength resistance. The layer thickness of the bottom high toughness layer also affected the bending behavior of the roll-boned interface and the potential delamination of the layers. Shear strain localization, dynamic cracking and delamination were the mutually competing failure mechanisms for the layered metallic composite, and control of these failure modes can be optimized for high strain

Micromechanics-Based Progressive Failure Analysis of Composite Laminates Using Different Constituent Failure Theories

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moncada, Albert M.; Chattopadhyay, Aditi; Bednarcyk, Brett A.; Arnold, Steven M.

2008-01-01

Predicting failure in a composite can be done with ply level mechanisms and/or micro level mechanisms. This paper uses the Generalized Method of Cells and High-Fidelity Generalized Method of Cells micromechanics theories, coupled with classical lamination theory, as implemented within NASA's Micromechanics Analysis Code with Generalized Method of Cells. The code is able to implement different failure theories on the level of both the fiber and the matrix constituents within a laminate. A comparison is made among maximum stress, maximum strain, Tsai-Hill, and Tsai-Wu failure theories. To verify the failure theories the Worldwide Failure Exercise (WWFE) experiments have been used. The WWFE is a comprehensive study that covers a wide range of polymer matrix composite laminates. The numerical results indicate good correlation with the experimental results for most of the composite layups, but also point to the need for more accurate resin damage progression models.

The failure analysis and lifetime prediction for the solder joint of the magnetic head

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Xianghui; Peng, Minfang; Cardoso, Jaime S.; Tang, Rongjun; Zhou, YingLiang

2015-02-01

Micro-solder joint (MSJ) lifetime prediction methodology and failure analysis (FA) are to assess reliability by fatigue model with a series of theoretical calculations, numerical simulation and experimental method. Due to shortened time of solder joints on high-temperature, high-frequency sampling error that is not allowed in productions may exist in various models, including round-off error. Combining intermetallic compound (IMC) growth theory and the FA technology for the magnetic head in actual production, this thesis puts forward a new growth model to predict life expectancy for solder joint of the magnetic head. And the impact of IMC, generating from interface reaction between slider (magnetic head, usually be called slider) and bonding pad, on mechanical performance during aging process is analyzed in it. By further researching on FA of solder ball bonding, thesis chooses AuSn4 growth model that affects least to solder joint mechanical property to indicate that the IMC methodology is suitable to forecast the solder lifetime. And the diffusion constant under work condition 60 °C is 0.015354; the solder lifetime t is 14.46 years.

Metallic ureteral stents in malignant ureteral obstruction: short-term results and radiological features predicting stent failure in patients with non-urological malignancies.

PubMed

Chow, Po-Ming; Hsu, Jui-Shan; Wang, Shuo-Meng; Yu, Hong-Jheng; Pu, Yeong-Shiau; Liu, Kao-Lang

2014-06-01

To provide short-term result of the metallic ureteral stent in patients with malignant ureteral obstruction and identify radiological findings predicting stent failure. The records of all patients with non-urological malignant diseases who have received metallic ureteral stents from July 2009 to March 2012 for ureteral obstruction were reviewed. Stent failure was detected by clinical symptoms and imaging studies. Survival analysis was used to estimate patency rates and factors predicting stent failure. A total of 74 patients with 130 attempts of stent insertion were included. A total of 113 (86.9 %) stents were inserted successfully and 103 (91.2 %) achieved primary patency. After excluding cases without sufficient imaging data, 94 stents were included in the survival analysis. The median functional duration of the 94 stents was 6.2 months (range 3-476 days). Obstruction in abdominal ureter (p = 0.0279) and lymphatic metastasis around ureter (p = 0.0398) were risk factors for stent failure. The median functional durations of the stents for abdominal and pelvic obstructions were 4.5 months (range 3-263 days) and 6.5 months (range 4-476 days), respectively. The median durations of the stents with and without lymphatic metastasis were 5.3 months (range 4-398 days) and 7.8 months (range 31-476 days), respectively. Metallic ureteral stents are effective and safe in relieving ureteral obstructions resulting from non-urological malignancies, and abdominal ureteral obstruction and lymphatic metastasis around ureter were associated with shorter functional duration.

Cannabis use predicts risks of heart failure and cerebrovascular accidents: results from the National Inpatient Sample.

PubMed

Kalla, Aditi; Krishnamoorthy, Parasuram M; Gopalakrishnan, Akshaya; Figueredo, Vincent M

2018-06-06

Cannabis for medicinal and/or recreational purposes has been decriminalized in 28 states as of the 2016 election. In the remaining states, cannabis remains the most commonly used illicit drug. Cardiovascular effects of cannabis use are not well established due to a limited number of studies. We therefore utilized a large national database to examine the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors and events amongst patients with cannabis use. Patients aged 18-55 years with cannabis use were identified in the National Inpatient Sample 2009-2010 database using the Ninth Revision of International Classification of Disease code 304.3. Demographics, risk factors, and cardiovascular event rates were collected on these patients and compared with general population data. Prevalence of heart failure, cerebrovascular accident (CVA), coronary artery disease, sudden cardiac death, and hypertension were significantly higher in patients with cannabis use. After multivariate regression adjusting for age, sex, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, coronary artery disease, tobacco use, and alcohol use, cannabis use remained an independent predictor of both heart failure (odds ratio = 1.1, 1.03-1.18, P < 0.01) and CVA (odds ratio = 1.24, 1.14-1.34, P < 0.001). Cannabis use independently predicted the risks of heart failure and CVA in individuals 18-55 years old. With continued legalization of cannabis, potential cardiovascular effects and their underlying mechanisms need to be further investigated.

Of cuts and cracks: data analytics on constrained graphs for early prediction of failure in cementitious materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kahagalage, Sanath; Tordesillas, Antoinette; Nitka, Michał; Tejchman, Jacek

2017-06-01

Using data from discrete element simulations, we develop a data analytics approach using network flow theory to study force transmission and failure in a `dog-bone' concrete specimen submitted to uniaxial tension. With this approach, we establish the extent to which the bottlenecks, i.e., a subset of contacts that impedes flow and are prone to becoming overloaded, can predict the location of the ultimate macro-crack. At the heart of this analysis is a capacity function that quantifies, in relative terms, the maximum force that can be transmitted through the different contacts or edges in the network. Here we set this function to be solely governed by the size of the contact area between the deformable spherical grains. During all the initial stages of the loading history, when no bonds are broken, we find the bottlenecks coincide consistently with, and therefore predict, the location of the crack that later forms in the failure regime after peak force. When bonds do start to break, they are spread throughout the specimen: in, near, and far from, the bottlenecks. In one stage leading up to peak force, bonds collectively break in the lower portion of the specimen, momentarily shifting the bottlenecks to this location. Just before and around peak force, however, the bottlenecks return to their original location and remain there until the macro-crack emerges right along the bottlenecks.

Dead or Alive? Using Membrane Failure and Chlorophyll a Fluorescence to Predict Plant Mortality from Drought1[OPEN

PubMed Central

Speckman, Heather N.; Huhn, Bridger J.; Strawn, Rachel N.; Weinig, Cynthia

2017-01-01

Climate models predict widespread increases in both drought intensity and duration in the next decades. Although water deficiency is a significant determinant of plant survival, limited understanding of plant responses to extreme drought impedes forecasts of both forest and crop productivity under increasing aridity. Drought induces a suite of physiological responses; however, we lack an accurate mechanistic description of plant response to lethal drought that would improve predictive understanding of mortality under altered climate conditions. Here, proxies for leaf cellular damage, chlorophyll a fluorescence, and electrolyte leakage were directly associated with failure to recover from drought upon rewatering in Brassica rapa (genotype R500) and thus define the exact timing of drought-induced death. We validated our results using a second genotype (imb211) that differs substantially in life history traits. Our study demonstrates that whereas changes in carbon dynamics and water transport are critical indicators of drought stress, they can be unrelated to visible metrics of mortality, i.e. lack of meristematic activity and regrowth. In contrast, membrane failure at the cellular scale is the most proximate cause of death. This hypothesis was corroborated in two gymnosperms (Picea engelmannii and Pinus contorta) that experienced lethal water stress in the field and in laboratory conditions. We suggest that measurement of chlorophyll a fluorescence can be used to operationally define plant death arising from drought, and improved plant characterization can enhance surface model predictions of drought mortality and its consequences to ecosystem services at a global scale. PMID:28710130

Risk Prediction Models of Locoregional Failure After Radical Cystectomy for Urothelial Carcinoma: External Validation in a Cohort of Korean Patients

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ku, Ja Hyeon; Kim, Myong; Jeong, Chang Wook

2014-08-01

Purpose: To evaluate the predictive accuracy and general applicability of the locoregional failure model in a different cohort of patients treated with radical cystectomy. Methods and Materials: A total of 398 patients were included in the analysis. Death and isolated distant metastasis were considered competing events, and patients without any events were censored at the time of last follow-up. The model included the 3 variables pT classification, the number of lymph nodes identified, and margin status, as follows: low risk (≤pT2), intermediate risk (≥pT3 with ≥10 nodes removed and negative margins), and high risk (≥pT3 with <10 nodes removed ormore » positive margins). Results: The bootstrap-corrected concordance index of the model 5 years after radical cystectomy was 66.2%. When the risk stratification was applied to the validation cohort, the 5-year locoregional failure estimates were 8.3%, 21.2%, and 46.3% for the low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups, respectively. The risk of locoregional failure differed significantly between the low-risk and intermediate-risk groups (subhazard ratio [SHR], 2.63; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.35-5.11; P<.001) and between the low-risk and high-risk groups (SHR, 4.28; 95% CI, 2.17-8.45; P<.001). Although decision curves were appropriately affected by the incidence of the competing risk, decisions about the value of the models are not likely to be affected because the model remains of value over a wide range of threshold probabilities. Conclusions: The model is not completely accurate, but it demonstrates a modest level of discrimination, adequate calibration, and meaningful net benefit gain for prediction of locoregional failure after radical cystectomy.« less

Numerical investigations of rib fracture failure models in different dynamic loading conditions.

PubMed

Wang, Fang; Yang, Jikuang; Miller, Karol; Li, Guibing; Joldes, Grand R; Doyle, Barry; Wittek, Adam

2016-01-01

Rib fracture is one of the most common thoracic injuries in vehicle traffic accidents that can result in fatalities associated with seriously injured internal organs. A failure model is critical when modelling rib fracture to predict such injuries. Different rib failure models have been proposed in prediction of thorax injuries. However, the biofidelity of the fracture failure models when varying the loading conditions and the effects of a rib fracture failure model on prediction of thoracic injuries have been studied only to a limited extent. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the effects of three rib failure models on prediction of thoracic injuries using a previously validated finite element model of the human thorax. The performance and biofidelity of each rib failure model were first evaluated by modelling rib responses to different loading conditions in two experimental configurations: (1) the three-point bending on the specimen taken from rib and (2) the anterior-posterior dynamic loading to an entire bony part of the rib. Furthermore, the simulation of the rib failure behaviour in the frontal impact to an entire thorax was conducted at varying velocities and the effects of the failure models were analysed with respect to the severity of rib cage damages. Simulation results demonstrated that the responses of the thorax model are similar to the general trends of the rib fracture responses reported in the experimental literature. However, they also indicated that the accuracy of the rib fracture prediction using a given failure model varies for different loading conditions.

Is there a way to predict failure after direct vision internal urethrotomy for single and short bulbar urethral strictures?

PubMed Central

Harraz, Ahmed M.; El-Assmy, Ahmed; Mahmoud, Osama; Elbakry, Amr A.; Tharwat, Mohamed; Omar, Helmy; Farg, Hashim; Laymon, Mahmoud; Mosbah, Ahmed

2015-01-01

Objective To identify patient and stricture characteristics predicting failure after direct vision internal urethrotomy (DVIU) for single and short (<2 cm) bulbar urethral strictures. Patients and methods We retrospectively analysed the records of adult patients who underwent DVIU between January 2002 and 2013. The patients’ demographics and stricture characteristics were analysed. The primary outcome was procedure failure, defined as the need for regular self-dilatation (RSD), redo DVIU or substitution urethroplasty. Predictors of failure were analysed. Results In all, 430 adult patients with a mean (SD) age of 50 (15) years were included. The main causes of stricture were idiopathic followed by iatrogenic in 51.6% and 26.3% of patients, respectively. Most patients presented with obstructive lower urinary tract symptoms (68.9%) and strictures were proximal bulbar, i.e. just close to the external urethral sphincter, in 35.3%. The median (range) follow-up duration was 29 (3–132) months. In all, 250 (58.1%) patients did not require any further instrumentation, while RSD was maintained in 116 (27%) patients, including 28 (6.5%) who required a redo DVIU or urethroplasty. In 64 (6.5%) patients, a redo DVIU or urethroplasty was performed. On multivariate analysis, older age at presentation [odds ratio (OR) 1.017; P = 0.03], obesity (OR 1.664; P = 0.015), and idiopathic strictures (OR 3.107; P = 0.035) were independent predictors of failure after DVIU. Conclusion The failure rate after DVIU accounted for 41.8% of our present cohort with older age at presentation, obesity, and idiopathic strictures independent predictors of failure after DVIU. This information is important in counselling patients before surgery. PMID:26609447

Is there a way to predict failure after direct vision internal urethrotomy for single and short bulbar urethral strictures?

PubMed

Harraz, Ahmed M; El-Assmy, Ahmed; Mahmoud, Osama; Elbakry, Amr A; Tharwat, Mohamed; Omar, Helmy; Farg, Hashim; Laymon, Mahmoud; Mosbah, Ahmed

2015-12-01

To identify patient and stricture characteristics predicting failure after direct vision internal urethrotomy (DVIU) for single and short (<2 cm) bulbar urethral strictures. We retrospectively analysed the records of adult patients who underwent DVIU between January 2002 and 2013. The patients' demographics and stricture characteristics were analysed. The primary outcome was procedure failure, defined as the need for regular self-dilatation (RSD), redo DVIU or substitution urethroplasty. Predictors of failure were analysed. In all, 430 adult patients with a mean (SD) age of 50 (15) years were included. The main causes of stricture were idiopathic followed by iatrogenic in 51.6% and 26.3% of patients, respectively. Most patients presented with obstructive lower urinary tract symptoms (68.9%) and strictures were proximal bulbar, i.e. just close to the external urethral sphincter, in 35.3%. The median (range) follow-up duration was 29 (3-132) months. In all, 250 (58.1%) patients did not require any further instrumentation, while RSD was maintained in 116 (27%) patients, including 28 (6.5%) who required a redo DVIU or urethroplasty. In 64 (6.5%) patients, a redo DVIU or urethroplasty was performed. On multivariate analysis, older age at presentation [odds ratio (OR) 1.017; P = 0.03], obesity (OR 1.664; P = 0.015), and idiopathic strictures (OR 3.107; P = 0.035) were independent predictors of failure after DVIU. The failure rate after DVIU accounted for 41.8% of our present cohort with older age at presentation, obesity, and idiopathic strictures independent predictors of failure after DVIU. This information is important in counselling patients before surgery.

Depression increasingly predicts mortality in the course of congestive heart failure.

PubMed

Jünger, Jana; Schellberg, Dieter; Müller-Tasch, Thomas; Raupp, Georg; Zugck, Christian; Haunstetter, Armin; Zipfel, Stephan; Herzog, Wolfgang; Haass, Markus

2005-03-02

Congestive heart failure (CHF) is frequently associated with depression. However, the impact of depression on prognosis has not yet been sufficiently established. To prospectively investigate the influence of depression on mortality in patients with CHF. In 209 CHF patients depression was assessed by the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS-D). Compared to survivors (n=164), non-survivors (n=45) were characterized by a higher New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class (2.8+/-0.7 vs. 2.5+/-0.6), and a lower left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) (18+/-8 vs. 23+/-10%) and peakVO(2) (13.1+/-4.5 vs. 15.4+/-5.2 ml/kg/min) at baseline. Furthermore, non-survivors had a higher depression score (7.5+/-4.0 vs. 6.1+/-4.3) (all P<0.05). After a mean follow-up of 24.8 months the depression score was identified as a significant indicator of mortality (P<0.01). In multivariate analysis the depression score predicted mortality independent from NYHA functional class, LVEF and peakVO(2). Combination of depression score, LVEF and peakVO(2) allowed for a better risk stratification than combination of LVEF and peakVO(2) alone. The risk ratio for mortality in patients with an elevated depression score (i.e. above the median) rose over time to 8.2 after 30 months (CI 2.62-25.84). The depression score predicts mortality independent of somatic parameters in CHF patients not treated for depression. Its prognostic power increases over time and should, thus, be accounted for in risk stratification and therapy.

SU-F-BRD-16: Under Dose Regions Recalculated by Monte Carlo Cannot Predict the Local Failure for NSCLC Patients Treated with SBRT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, H; Cherian, S; Stephans, K

2014-06-15

Purpose: To investigate whether Monte Carlo (MC) recalculated dose distributions can predict the geometric location of the recurrence for nonsmall cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients treated with stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT). Methods: Thirty NSCLC patients with local recurrence were retrospectively selected for this study. The recurred gross target volumes (rGTV) were delineated on the follow-up CT/PET images and then rigidly transferred via imaging fusion to the original planning CTs. Failure pattern was defined according to the overlap between the rGTV and planning GTV (pGTV) as: (a) in-field failure (≥80%), (b) marginal failure (20%–80%), and (c) out-of-field failure (≤20%). All clinicalmore » plans were calculated initially with pencil beam (PB) with or without heterogeneity correction dependent of protocols. These plans were recalculated with MC with heterogeneity correction. Because of non-uniform dose distributions in the rGTVs, the rGTVs were further divided into four regions: inside the pGTV (GTVin), inside the PTV (PTVin), outside the pGTV (GTVout), and outside the PTV (PTVout). The mean doses to these regions were reported and analyzed separately. Results: Among 30 patients, 10 patients had infield recurrences, 15 marginal and 5 out-of-field failures. With MC calculations, D95 and D99 of the PTV were reduced by (10.6 ± 7.4)% and (11.7 ± 7.9)%. The average MC calculated mean doses of GTVin, GTVout, PTVin and PTVout were 48.2 ± 5.3 Gy, 48.2 ± 5.5 Gy, 46.3 ± 6.2 Gy and 46.6 ± 5.6 Gy, respectively. No significant dose differences between GTVin and GTVout (p=0.65), PTVin and PTVout (p=0.19) were observed, using the paired students t-test. Conclusion: Although the PB calculations underestimated the tumor target doses, the geometric location of the recurrence did not correlate with the mean doses of subsections of the recurrent GTV. Under dose regions recalculated by MC cannot predict the local failure for NSCLC patients treated with SBRT.« less

Patient Characteristics Predicting Readmission Among Individuals Hospitalized for Heart Failure.

PubMed

O'Connor, Melissa; Murtaugh, Christopher M; Shah, Shivani; Barrón-Vaya, Yolanda; Bowles, Kathryn H; Peng, Timothy R; Zhu, Carolyn W; Feldman, Penny H

2016-02-01

Heart failure is difficult to manage and increasingly common with many individuals experiencing frequent hospitalizations. Little is known about patient factors consistently associated with hospital readmission. A literature review was conducted to identify heart failure patient characteristics, measured before discharge, that contribute to variation in hospital readmission rates. Database searches yielded 950 potential articles, of which 34 studies met inclusion criteria. Patient characteristics generally have a very modest effect on all-cause or heart failure-related readmission within 7 to 180 days of index hospital discharge. A range of cardiac diseases and other comorbidities only minimally increase readmission rates. No single patient characteristic stands out as a key contributor across multiple studies underscoring the challenge of developing successful interventions to reduce readmissions. Interventions may need to be general in design with the specific intervention depending on each patient's unique clinical profile. © The Author(s) 2015.

Heterogeneity: The key to forecasting material failure?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasseur, J.; Wadsworth, F. B.; Lavallée, Y.; Dingwell, D. B.

2014-12-01

Empirical mechanistic models have been applied to the description of the stress and strain rate upon failure for heterogeneous materials. The behaviour of porous rocks and their analogous two-phase viscoelastic suspensions are particularly well-described by such models. Nevertheless, failure cannot yet be predicted forcing a reliance on other empirical prediction tools such as the Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Measurable, accelerating rates of physical signals (e.g., seismicity and deformation) preceding failure are often used as proxies for damage accumulation in the FFM. Previous studies have already statistically assessed the applicability and performance of the FFM, but none (to the best of our knowledge) has done so in terms of intrinsic material properties. Here we use a rheological standard glass, which has been powdered and then sintered for different times (up to 32 hours) at high temperature (675°C) in order to achieve a sample suite with porosities in the range of 0.10-0.45 gas volume fraction. This sample suite was then subjected to mechanical tests in a uniaxial press at a constant strain rate of 10-3 s-1 and a temperature in the region of the glass transition. A dual acoustic emission (AE) rig has been employed to test the success of the FFM in these materials of systematically varying porosity. The pore-emanating crack model describes well the peak stress at failure in the elastic regime for these materials. We show that the FFM predicts failure within 0-15% error at porosities >0.2. However, when porosities are <0.2, the forecast error associated with predicting the failure time increases to >100%. We interpret these results as a function of the low efficiency with which strain energy can be released in the scenario where there are few or no heterogeneities from which cracks can propagate. These observations shed light on questions surrounding the variable efficacy of the FFM applied to active volcanoes. In particular, they provide a systematic

Failure-probability driven dose painting

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vogelius, Ivan R.; Håkansson, Katrin; Due, Anne K.

Purpose: To demonstrate a data-driven dose-painting strategy based on the spatial distribution of recurrences in previously treated patients. The result is a quantitative way to define a dose prescription function, optimizing the predicted local control at constant treatment intensity. A dose planning study using the optimized dose prescription in 20 patients is performed.Methods: Patients treated at our center have five tumor subvolumes from the center of the tumor (PET positive volume) and out delineated. The spatial distribution of 48 failures in patients with complete clinical response after (chemo)radiation is used to derive a model for tumor control probability (TCP). Themore » total TCP is fixed to the clinically observed 70% actuarial TCP at five years. Additionally, the authors match the distribution of failures between the five subvolumes to the observed distribution. The steepness of the dose–response is extracted from the literature and the authors assume 30% and 20% risk of subclinical involvement in the elective volumes. The result is a five-compartment dose response model matching the observed distribution of failures. The model is used to optimize the distribution of dose in individual patients, while keeping the treatment intensity constant and the maximum prescribed dose below 85 Gy.Results: The vast majority of failures occur centrally despite the small volumes of the central regions. Thus, optimizing the dose prescription yields higher doses to the central target volumes and lower doses to the elective volumes. The dose planning study shows that the modified prescription is clinically feasible. The optimized TCP is 89% (range: 82%–91%) as compared to the observed TCP of 70%.Conclusions: The observed distribution of locoregional failures was used to derive an objective, data-driven dose prescription function. The optimized dose is predicted to result in a substantial increase in local control without increasing the predicted risk of

Immunohistochemical and molecular imaging biomarker signature for the prediction of failure site after chemoradiation for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Rasmussen, Gregers Brünnich; Håkansson, Katrin E; Vogelius, Ivan R; Rasmussen, Jacob H; Friborg, Jeppe T; Fischer, Barbara M; Schumaker, Lisa; Cullen, Kevin; Therkildsen, Marianne H; Bentzen, Søren M; Specht, Lena

2017-11-01

To identify a failure site-specific prognostic model by combining immunohistochemistry (IHC) and molecular imaging information to predict long-term failure type in squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck. Tissue microarray blocks of 196 head and neck squamous cell carcinoma cases were stained for a panel of biomarkers using IHC. Gross tumor volume (GTV) from the PET/CT radiation treatment planning CT scan, maximal Standard Uptake Value (SUVmax) of fludeoxyglucose (FDG) and clinical information were included in the model building using Cox proportional hazards models, stratified for p16 status in oropharyngeal carcinomas. Separate models were built for time to locoregional failure and time to distant metastasis. Higher than median p53 expression on IHC tended toward a risk factor for locoregional failure but was protective for distant metastasis, χ 2 for difference p = .003. The final model for locoregional failure included p53 (HR: 1.9; p: .055), concomitant cisplatin (HR: 0.41; p: .008), β-tubulin-1 (HR: 1.8; p: .08), β-tubulin-2 (HR: 0.49; p: .057) and SUVmax (HR: 2.1; p: .046). The final model for distant metastasis included p53 (HR: 0.23; p: .025), Bcl-2 (HR: 2.6; p: .08), SUVmax (HR: 3.5; p: .095) and GTV (HR: 1.7; p: .063). The models successfully distinguished between risk of locoregional failure and risk of distant metastasis, which is important information for clinical decision-making. High p53 expression has opposite prognostic effects for the two endpoints; increasing risk of locoregional failure, but decreasing the risk of metastatic failure, but external validation of this finding is needed.

Color Shift Failure Prediction for Phosphor-Converted White LEDs by Modeling Features of Spectral Power Distribution with a Nonlinear Filter Approach

PubMed Central

Mohamed, Moumouni Guero; Fan, Xuejun; Zhang, Guoqi; Pecht, Michael

2017-01-01

With the expanding application of light-emitting diodes (LEDs), the color quality of white LEDs has attracted much attention in several color-sensitive application fields, such as museum lighting, healthcare lighting and displays. Reliability concerns for white LEDs are changing from the luminous efficiency to color quality. However, most of the current available research on the reliability of LEDs is still focused on luminous flux depreciation rather than color shift failure. The spectral power distribution (SPD), defined as the radiant power distribution emitted by a light source at a range of visible wavelength, contains the most fundamental luminescence mechanisms of a light source. SPD is used as the quantitative inference of an LED’s optical characteristics, including color coordinates that are widely used to represent the color shift process. Thus, to model the color shift failure of white LEDs during aging, this paper first extracts the features of an SPD, representing the characteristics of blue LED chips and phosphors, by multi-peak curve-fitting and modeling them with statistical functions. Then, because the shift processes of extracted features in aged LEDs are always nonlinear, a nonlinear state-space model is then developed to predict the color shift failure time within a self-adaptive particle filter framework. The results show that: (1) the failure mechanisms of LEDs can be identified by analyzing the extracted features of SPD with statistical curve-fitting and (2) the developed method can dynamically and accurately predict the color coordinates, correlated color temperatures (CCTs), and color rendering indexes (CRIs) of phosphor-converted (pc)-white LEDs, and also can estimate the residual color life. PMID:28773176

Color Shift Failure Prediction for Phosphor-Converted White LEDs by Modeling Features of Spectral Power Distribution with a Nonlinear Filter Approach.

PubMed

Fan, Jiajie; Mohamed, Moumouni Guero; Qian, Cheng; Fan, Xuejun; Zhang, Guoqi; Pecht, Michael

2017-07-18

With the expanding application of light-emitting diodes (LEDs), the color quality of white LEDs has attracted much attention in several color-sensitive application fields, such as museum lighting, healthcare lighting and displays. Reliability concerns for white LEDs are changing from the luminous efficiency to color quality. However, most of the current available research on the reliability of LEDs is still focused on luminous flux depreciation rather than color shift failure. The spectral power distribution (SPD), defined as the radiant power distribution emitted by a light source at a range of visible wavelength, contains the most fundamental luminescence mechanisms of a light source. SPD is used as the quantitative inference of an LED's optical characteristics, including color coordinates that are widely used to represent the color shift process. Thus, to model the color shift failure of white LEDs during aging, this paper first extracts the features of an SPD, representing the characteristics of blue LED chips and phosphors, by multi-peak curve-fitting and modeling them with statistical functions. Then, because the shift processes of extracted features in aged LEDs are always nonlinear, a nonlinear state-space model is then developed to predict the color shift failure time within a self-adaptive particle filter framework. The results show that: (1) the failure mechanisms of LEDs can be identified by analyzing the extracted features of SPD with statistical curve-fitting and (2) the developed method can dynamically and accurately predict the color coordinates, correlated color temperatures (CCTs), and color rendering indexes (CRIs) of phosphor-converted (pc)-white LEDs, and also can estimate the residual color life.

Failure Predictions for VHTR Core Components using a Probabilistic Contiuum Damage Mechanics Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fok, Alex

2013-10-30

The proposed work addresses the key research need for the development of constitutive models and overall failure models for graphite and high temperature structural materials, with the long-term goal being to maximize the design life of the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP). To this end, the capability of a Continuum Damage Mechanics (CDM) model, which has been used successfully for modeling fracture of virgin graphite, will be extended as a predictive and design tool for the core components of the very high- temperature reactor (VHTR). Specifically, irradiation and environmental effects pertinent to the VHTR will be incorporated into the modelmore » to allow fracture of graphite and ceramic components under in-reactor conditions to be modeled explicitly using the finite element method. The model uses a combined stress-based and fracture mechanics-based failure criterion, so it can simulate both the initiation and propagation of cracks. Modern imaging techniques, such as x-ray computed tomography and digital image correlation, will be used during material testing to help define the baseline material damage parameters. Monte Carlo analysis will be performed to address inherent variations in material properties, the aim being to reduce the arbitrariness and uncertainties associated with the current statistical approach. The results can potentially contribute to the current development of American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) codes for the design and construction of VHTR core components.« less

Human oocyte calcium analysis predicts the response to assisted oocyte activation in patients experiencing fertilization failure after ICSI.

PubMed

Ferrer-Buitrago, M; Dhaenens, L; Lu, Y; Bonte, D; Vanden Meerschaut, F; De Sutter, P; Leybaert, L; Heindryckx, B

2018-01-10

Can human oocyte calcium analysis predict fertilization success after assisted oocyte activation (AOA) in patients experiencing fertilization failure after ICSI? ICSI-AOA restores the fertilization rate only in patients displaying abnormal Ca2+ oscillations during human oocyte activation. Patients capable of activating mouse oocytes and who showed abnormal Ca2+ profiles after mouse oocyte Ca2+ analysis (M-OCA), have variable responses to ICSI-AOA. It remains unsettled whether human oocyte Ca2+ analysis (H-OCA) would yield an improved accuracy to predict fertilization success after ICSI-AOA. Sperm activation potential was first evaluated by MOAT. Subsequently, Ca2+ oscillatory patterns were determined with sperm from patients showing moderate to normal activation potential based on the capacity of human sperm to generate Ca2+ responses upon microinjection in mouse and human oocytes. Altogether, this study includes a total of 255 mouse and 122 human oocytes. M-OCA was performed with 16 different sperm samples before undergoing ICSI-AOA treatment. H-OCA was performed for 11 patients who finally underwent ICSI-AOA treatment. The diagnostic accuracy to predict fertilization success was calculated based on the response to ICSI-AOA. Patients experiencing low or total failed fertilization after conventional ICSI were included in the study. All participants showed moderate to high rates of activation after MOAT. Metaphase II (MII) oocytes from B6D2F1 mice were used for M-OCA. Control fertile sperm samples were used to obtain a reference Ca2+ oscillation profile elicited in human oocytes. Donated human oocytes, non-suitable for IVF treatments, were collected and vitrified at MII stage for further analysis by H-OCA. M-OCA and H-OCA predicted the response to ICSI-AOA in 8 out of 11 (73%) patients. Compared to M-OCA, H-OCA detected the presence of sperm activation deficiencies with greater sensitivity (75 vs 100%, respectively). ICSI-AOA never showed benefit to overcome

A machine learning model to predict the risk of 30-day readmissions in patients with heart failure: a retrospective analysis of electronic medical records data.

PubMed

Golas, Sara Bersche; Shibahara, Takuma; Agboola, Stephen; Otaki, Hiroko; Sato, Jumpei; Nakae, Tatsuya; Hisamitsu, Toru; Kojima, Go; Felsted, Jennifer; Kakarmath, Sujay; Kvedar, Joseph; Jethwani, Kamal

2018-06-22

Heart failure is one of the leading causes of hospitalization in the United States. Advances in big data solutions allow for storage, management, and mining of large volumes of structured and semi-structured data, such as complex healthcare data. Applying these advances to complex healthcare data has led to the development of risk prediction models to help identify patients who would benefit most from disease management programs in an effort to reduce readmissions and healthcare cost, but the results of these efforts have been varied. The primary aim of this study was to develop a 30-day readmission risk prediction model for heart failure patients discharged from a hospital admission. We used longitudinal electronic medical record data of heart failure patients admitted within a large healthcare system. Feature vectors included structured demographic, utilization, and clinical data, as well as selected extracts of un-structured data from clinician-authored notes. The risk prediction model was developed using deep unified networks (DUNs), a new mesh-like network structure of deep learning designed to avoid over-fitting. The model was validated with 10-fold cross-validation and results compared to models based on logistic regression, gradient boosting, and maxout networks. Overall model performance was assessed using concordance statistic. We also selected a discrimination threshold based on maximum projected cost saving to the Partners Healthcare system. Data from 11,510 patients with 27,334 admissions and 6369 30-day readmissions were used to train the model. After data processing, the final model included 3512 variables. The DUNs model had the best performance after 10-fold cross-validation. AUCs for prediction models were 0.664 ± 0.015, 0.650 ± 0.011, 0.695 ± 0.016 and 0.705 ± 0.015 for logistic regression, gradient boosting, maxout networks, and DUNs respectively. The DUNs model had an accuracy of 76.4% at the classification threshold that

Post-Exercise Heart Rate Recovery Independently Predicts Clinical Outcome in Patients with Acute Decompensated Heart Failure.

PubMed

Youn, Jong-Chan; Lee, Hye Sun; Choi, Suk-Won; Han, Seong-Woo; Ryu, Kyu-Hyung; Shin, Eui-Cheol; Kang, Seok-Min

2016-01-01

Post-exercise heart rate recovery (HRR) is an index of parasympathetic function associated with clinical outcome in patients with chronic heart failure. However, its relationship with the pro-inflammatory response and prognostic value in consecutive patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) has not been investigated. We measured HRR and pro-inflammatory markers in 107 prospectively and consecutively enrolled, recovered ADHF patients (71 male, 59 ± 15 years, mean ejection fraction 28.9 ± 14.2%) during the pre-discharge period. The primary endpoint included cardiovascular (CV) events defined as CV mortality, cardiac transplantation, or rehospitalization due to HF aggravation. The CV events occurred in 30 (28.0%) patients (5 cardiovascular deaths and 7 cardiac transplantations) during the follow-up period (median 214 days, 11-812 days). When the patients with ADHF were grouped by HRR according to the Contal and O'Quigley's method, low HRR was shown to be associated with significantly higher levels of serum monokine-induced by gamma interferon (MIG) and poor clinical outcome. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that low HRR was an independent predictor of CV events in both enter method and stepwise method. The addition of HRR to a model significantly increased predictability for CV events across the entire follow-up period. Impaired post-exercise HRR is associated with a pro-inflammatory response and independently predicts clinical outcome in patients with ADHF. These findings may explain the relationship between autonomic dysfunction and clinical outcome in terms of the inflammatory response in these patients.

Novel prognostic tissue markers in congestive heart failure.

PubMed

Stone, James R

2015-01-01

Heart failure is a relatively common disorder associated with high morbidity, mortality, and economic burden. Better tools to predict outcomes for patients with heart failure could allow for better decision making concerning patient treatment and management and better utilization of health care resources. Endomyocardial biopsy offers a mechanism to pathologically diagnose specific diseases in patients with heart failure, but such biopsies can often be negative, with no specific diagnostic information. Novel tissue markers in endomyocardial biopsies have been identified that may be useful in assessing prognosis in heart failure patients. Such tissue markers include ubiquitin, Gremlin-1, cyclophilin A, and heterogeneous nuclear ribonucleoprotein C. In some cases, tissue markers have been found to be independent of and even superior to clinical indices and serum markers in predicting prognosis for heart failure patients. In some cases, these novel tissue markers appear to offer prognostic information even in the setting of an otherwise negative endomyocardial biopsy. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Identifying Clinical Factors Which Predict for Early Failure Patterns Following Resection for Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma in Patients Who Received Adjuvant Chemotherapy Without Chemoradiation.

PubMed

Walston, Steve; Salloum, Joseph; Grieco, Carmine; Wuthrick, Evan; Diaz, Dayssy A; Barney, Christian; Manilchuk, Andrei; Schmidt, Carl; Dillhoff, Mary; Pawlik, Timothy M; Williams, Terence M

2018-05-04

The role of radiation therapy (RT) in resected pancreatic cancer (PC) remains incompletely defined. We sought to determine clinical variables which predict for local-regional recurrence (LRR) to help select patients for adjuvant RT. We identified 73 patients with PC who underwent resection and adjuvant gemcitabine-based chemotherapy alone. We performed detailed radiologic analysis of first patterns of failure. LRR was defined as recurrence of PC within standard postoperative radiation volumes. Univariate analyses (UVA) were conducted using the Kaplan-Meier method and multivariate analyses (MVA) utilized the Cox proportional hazard ratio model. Factors significant on UVA were used for MVA. At median follow-up of 20 months, rates of local-regional recurrence only (LRRO) were 24.7%, LRR as a component of any failure 68.5%, metastatic recurrence (MR) as a component of any failure 65.8%, and overall disease recurrence (OR) 90.5%. On UVA, elevated postoperative CA 19-9 (>90 U/mL), pathologic lymph node positive (pLN+) disease, and higher tumor grade were associated with increased LRR, MR, and OR. On MVA, elevated postoperative CA 19-9 and pLN+ were associated with increased MR and OR. In addition, positive resection margin was associated with increased LRRO on both UVA and MVA. About 25% of patients with PC treated without adjuvant RT develop LRRO as initial failure. The only independent predictor of LRRO was positive margin, while elevated postoperative CA 19-9 and pLN+ were associated with predicting MR and overall survival. These data may help determine which patients benefit from intensification of local therapy with radiation.

Predicting outcome on admission and post-admission for acetaminophen-induced acute liver failure using classification and regression tree models.

PubMed

Speiser, Jaime Lynn; Lee, William M; Karvellas, Constantine J

2015-01-01

Assessing prognosis for acetaminophen-induced acute liver failure (APAP-ALF) patients often presents significant challenges. King's College (KCC) has been validated on hospital admission, but little has been published on later phases of illness. We aimed to improve determinations of prognosis both at the time of and following admission for APAP-ALF using Classification and Regression Tree (CART) models. CART models were applied to US ALFSG registry data to predict 21-day death or liver transplant early (on admission) and post-admission (days 3-7) for 803 APAP-ALF patients enrolled 01/1998-09/2013. Accuracy in prediction of outcome (AC), sensitivity (SN), specificity (SP), and area under receiver-operating curve (AUROC) were compared between 3 models: KCC (INR, creatinine, coma grade, pH), CART analysis using only KCC variables (KCC-CART) and a CART model using new variables (NEW-CART). Traditional KCC yielded 69% AC, 90% SP, 27% SN, and 0.58 AUROC on admission, with similar performance post-admission. KCC-CART at admission offered predictive 66% AC, 65% SP, 67% SN, and 0.74 AUROC. Post-admission, KCC-CART had predictive 82% AC, 86% SP, 46% SN and 0.81 AUROC. NEW-CART models using MELD (Model for end stage liver disease), lactate and mechanical ventilation on admission yielded predictive 72% AC, 71% SP, 77% SN and AUROC 0.79. For later stages, NEW-CART (MELD, lactate, coma grade) offered predictive AC 86%, SP 91%, SN 46%, AUROC 0.73. CARTs offer simple prognostic models for APAP-ALF patients, which have higher AUROC and SN than KCC, with similar AC and negligibly worse SP. Admission and post-admission predictions were developed. • Prognostication in acetaminophen-induced acute liver failure (APAP-ALF) is challenging beyond admission • Little has been published regarding the use of King's College Criteria (KCC) beyond admission and KCC has shown limited sensitivity in subsequent studies • Classification and Regression Tree (CART) methodology allows the

Impact of fiber-optic laryngoscopy on the weaning process from mechanical ventilation in high-risk patients for postextubation stridor.

PubMed

Lemyze, Malcolm; Durville, Emmanuelle; Meddour, Mehdi; Jonard, Marie; Temime, Johanna; Barailler, Stéphanie; Thevenin, Didier; Mallat, Jihad

2017-02-01

The objective of this study was to assess the impact of fiber-optic laryngoscopy (FOL) on the weaning process from mechanical ventilation in critically ill patients with a positive cuff leak test (CLT) as compared with the current recommended strategy based on corticosteroids.In this prospective observational pilot study conducted over a 1-year period in a 15-bed ICU, CLT was systematically performed before extubation in all intubated patients having passed a spontaneous breathing trial (SBT). After the endotracheal tube cuff was deflated, cuff leak volume (CLVol) was assessed during assisted controlled ventilation. When CLT was positive (CLVol < 110 mL), patients either were evaluated using FOL by our half-time FOL-practitioner when present, or received corticosteroids.Among the 233 patients included, 34 (14.6%) had a positive CLT that hampered extubation. Seventeen were treated by corticosteroids and 17 were evaluated by FOL. In the corticosteroids group, the CLVol was still <110 mL at 24 hours in 9 patients (53%). Corticosteroids strategy merely prolonged the total duration of mechanical ventilation (7 [4-11] vs 4 [2-6] days, P = 0.01) by increasing the time between successful SBT and the moment when extubation was effectively achieved (30 [24-60] vs 1.5 [1-2] hours, P < 0.001). This resulted in 2 self-extubations (12%) and 9 FOL-guided extubations (53%) in the corticosteroids group. Massive swelling of the arytenoids was the most common feature shown by FOL. The patients evaluated by FOL who exhibited the thin anterior V-shaped opening of the vocal cords-the V sign-(n = 26, 100%) were immediately extubated without any stridor or respiratory failure afterward.In this pilot study, a FOL-based extubation strategy was feasible and reliable, and significantly reduced the duration of mechanical ventilation in patients with a positive CLT. We describe the "V sign" of FOL that safely allows a successful prompt extubation in patients considered at

Micromechanics Based Failure Analysis of Heterogeneous Materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sertse, Hamsasew M.

In recent decades, heterogeneous materials are extensively used in various industries such as aerospace, defense, automotive and others due to their desirable specific properties and excellent capability of accumulating damage. Despite their wide use, there are numerous challenges associated with the application of these materials. One of the main challenges is lack of accurate tools to predict the initiation, progression and final failure of these materials under various thermomechanical loading conditions. Although failure is usually treated at the macro and meso-scale level, the initiation and growth of failure is a complex phenomena across multiple scales. The objective of this work is to enable the mechanics of structure genome (MSG) and its companion code SwiftComp to analyze the initial failure (also called static failure), progressive failure, and fatigue failure of heterogeneous materials using micromechanics approach. The initial failure is evaluated at each numerical integration point using pointwise and nonlocal approach for each constituent of the heterogeneous materials. The effects of imperfect interfaces among constituents of heterogeneous materials are also investigated using a linear traction-displacement model. Moreover, the progressive and fatigue damage analyses are conducted using continuum damage mechanics (CDM) approach. The various failure criteria are also applied at a material point to analyze progressive damage in each constituent. The constitutive equation of a damaged material is formulated based on a consistent irreversible thermodynamics approach. The overall tangent modulus of uncoupled elastoplastic damage for negligible back stress effect is derived. The initiation of plasticity and damage in each constituent is evaluated at each numerical integration point using a nonlocal approach. The accumulated plastic strain and anisotropic damage evolution variables are iteratively solved using an incremental algorithm. The damage analyses

Predicting the velocity and azimuth of fragments generated by the range destruction or random failure of rocket casings and tankage

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eck, Marshall; Mukunda, Meera

1988-01-01

A calculational method is described which provides a powerful tool for predicting solid rocket motor (SRM) casing and liquid rocket tankage fragmentation response. The approach properly partitions the available impulse to each major system-mass component. It uses the Pisces code developed by Physics International to couple the forces generated by an Eulerian-modeled gas flow field to a Lagrangian-modeled fuel and casing system. The details of the predictive analytical modeling process and the development of normalized relations for momentum partition as a function of SRM burn time and initial geometry are discussed. Methods for applying similar modeling techniques to liquid-tankage-overpressure failures are also discussed. Good agreement between predictions and observations are obtained for five specific events.

Spatio-temporal propagation of cascading overload failures in spatially embedded networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Jichang; Li, Daqing; Sanhedrai, Hillel; Cohen, Reuven; Havlin, Shlomo

2016-01-01

Different from the direct contact in epidemics spread, overload failures propagate through hidden functional dependencies. Many studies focused on the critical conditions and catastrophic consequences of cascading failures. However, to understand the network vulnerability and mitigate the cascading overload failures, the knowledge of how the failures propagate in time and space is essential but still missing. Here we study the spatio-temporal propagation behaviour of cascading overload failures analytically and numerically on spatially embedded networks. The cascading overload failures are found to spread radially from the centre of the initial failure with an approximately constant velocity. The propagation velocity decreases with increasing tolerance, and can be well predicted by our theoretical framework with one single correction for all the tolerance values. This propagation velocity is found similar in various model networks and real network structures. Our findings may help to predict the dynamics of cascading overload failures in realistic systems.

Empirical and semi-analytical models for predicting peak outflows caused by embankment dam failures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Bo; Chen, Yunliang; Wu, Chao; Peng, Yong; Song, Jiajun; Liu, Wenjun; Liu, Xin

2018-07-01

Prediction of peak discharge of floods has attracted great attention for researchers and engineers. In present study, nine typical nonlinear mathematical models are established based on database of 40 historical dam failures. The first eight models that were developed with a series of regression analyses are purely empirical, while the last one is a semi-analytical approach that was derived from an analytical solution of dam-break floods in a trapezoidal channel. Water depth above breach invert (Hw), volume of water stored above breach invert (Vw), embankment length (El), and average embankment width (Ew) are used as independent variables to develop empirical formulas of estimating the peak outflow from breached embankment dams. It is indicated from the multiple regression analysis that a function using the former two variables (i.e., Hw and Vw) produce considerably more accurate results than that using latter two variables (i.e., El and Ew). It is shown that the semi-analytical approach works best in terms of both prediction accuracy and uncertainty, and the established empirical models produce considerably reasonable results except the model only using El. Moreover, present models have been compared with other models available in literature for estimating peak discharge.

Prediction of failure to retain work 1 year after interdisciplinary functional restoration in occupational injuries.

PubMed

Brede, Emily; Mayer, Tom G; Gatchel, Robert J

2012-02-01

To identify risk factors for work retention (a patients' ability to both obtain and retain employment) at 1 year after treatment for a chronic disabling occupational musculoskeletal disorder (CDOMD). Prospective cohort study. Consecutive patients undergoing interdisciplinary functional restoration treatment in a regional rehabilitation referral center. A sample of 1850 consecutive CDOMD patients, who were admitted to and completed a functional restoration program, were subsequently classified as work retention or nonwork retention at a 1-year posttreatment evaluation. Not applicable. Measures, including medical evaluations, demographic and occupational data, psychosocial diagnostic evaluation, and validated measures of pain, disability, and depressive symptoms, were obtained at admission to, and discharge from, the program. Using a multivariate logistic regression analysis, the following variables were found to be significant predictors of failure to retain work: older age (odds ratio [OR]=1.84; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.33-2.54), female sex (OR=1.46; 95% CI, 1.09-1.94), nonworking status at discharge (OR=1.65; 95% CI, 1.11-2.45), extreme disability at admission (OR=1.46; 95% CI, 1.06-2.00), antisocial personality disorder (OR=2.11; 95% CI, 1.09-4.08), receipt of government disability benefits at admission (OR=2.28; 95% CI, 1.06-4.89), and dependence on opiate pain medications (OR=1.43; 95% CI, 1.02-2.00). The final model improved prediction by 75% over assigning all patients to the larger (work retention) group. This study identified demographic, psychosocial, and occupational factors that were predictive of failure to retain work. These risk factors may be used to individualize treatment plans for CDOMD patients in order to provide optimal functional restoration. Copyright © 2012 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dexmedetomidine Use in Critically-Ill Children with Acute Respiratory Failure

PubMed Central

Grant, Mary Jo C.; Schneider, James B.; Asaro, Lisa A.; Dodson, Brenda L.; Hall, Brent A.; Simone, Shari L.; Cowl, Allison S.; Munkwitz, Michele M.; Wypij, David; Curley, Martha A.Q.

2016-01-01

Objective Care of critically-ill children includes sedation but current therapies are suboptimal. To describe dexmedetomidine (DEX) use in children supported on mechanical ventilation for acute respiratory failure. Design Secondary analysis of data from the RESTORE clinical trial. Setting Thirty-one pediatric ICUs. Patients Data from 2449 children; 2 weeks to 17 years old. Interventions Sedation practices were unrestrained in the usual care arm. Patients were categorized as receiving dexmedetomidine as a primary sedative (DEXp), secondary sedative (DEXs), periextubation agent (DEXe), or never prescribed. DEX exposure and sedation and clinical profiles are described. Measurements and Main Results Of 1224 usual care patients, 596 (49%) received DEX. DEXp patients (N=138; 11%) were less critically ill (PRISM III-12 score median 6 [IQR 3–11]) and when compared to all other cohorts, experienced more episodic agitation. In the intervention group, time in sedation target improved from 28% to 50% within one day of initiating DEXp. DEXs usual care patients (N=280; 23%) included more children with severe PARDS or organ failure. DEXs patients experienced more inadequate pain (22% vs 11%) and sedation (31% vs 16%) events. DEXe patients (N=178; 15%) were those known to not tolerate an awake, intubated state and experienced a shorter ventilator weaning process (2.1 vs 2.3 days). Conclusions Our data support the use of dexmedetomidine as a primary agent in low criticality patients offering the benefit of rapid achievement of targeted sedation levels. Dexmedetomidine as a secondary agent does not appear to add benefit. The use of dexmedetomidine to facilitate extubation in children intolerant of an awake, intubated state may abbreviate ventilator weaning. These data support a broader armamentarium of pediatric critical care sedation. PMID:27654816

Automated identification and predictive tools to help identify high-risk heart failure patients: pilot evaluation.

PubMed

Evans, R Scott; Benuzillo, Jose; Horne, Benjamin D; Lloyd, James F; Bradshaw, Alejandra; Budge, Deborah; Rasmusson, Kismet D; Roberts, Colleen; Buckway, Jason; Geer, Norma; Garrett, Teresa; Lappé, Donald L

2016-09-01

Develop and evaluate an automated identification and predictive risk report for hospitalized heart failure (HF) patients. Dictated free-text reports from the previous 24 h were analyzed each day with natural language processing (NLP), to help improve the early identification of hospitalized patients with HF. A second application that uses an Intermountain Healthcare-developed predictive score to determine each HF patient's risk for 30-day hospital readmission and 30-day mortality was also developed. That information was included in an identification and predictive risk report, which was evaluated at a 354-bed hospital that treats high-risk HF patients. The addition of NLP-identified HF patients increased the identification score's sensitivity from 82.6% to 95.3% and its specificity from 82.7% to 97.5%, and the model's positive predictive value is 97.45%. Daily multidisciplinary discharge planning meetings are now based on the information provided by the HF identification and predictive report, and clinician's review of potential HF admissions takes less time compared to the previously used manual methodology (10 vs 40 min). An evaluation of the use of the HF predictive report identified a significant reduction in 30-day mortality and a significant increase in patient discharges to home care instead of to a specialized nursing facility. Using clinical decision support to help identify HF patients and automatically calculating their 30-day all-cause readmission and 30-day mortality risks, coupled with a multidisciplinary care process pathway, was found to be an effective process to improve HF patient identification, significantly reduce 30-day mortality, and significantly increase patient discharges to home care. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Development of failure model for nickel cadmium cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gupta, A.

1980-01-01

The development of a method for the life prediction of nickel cadmium cells is discussed. The approach described involves acquiring an understanding of the mechanisms of degradation and failure and at the same time developing nondestructive evaluation techniques for the nickel cadmium cells. The development of a statistical failure model which will describe the mechanisms of degradation and failure is outlined.

Strategies of learning from failure.

PubMed

Edmondson, Amy C

2011-04-01

Many executives believe that all failure is bad (although it usually provides Lessons) and that Learning from it is pretty straightforward. The author, a professor at Harvard Business School, thinks both beliefs are misguided. In organizational life, she says, some failures are inevitable and some are even good. And successful learning from failure is not simple: It requires context-specific strategies. But first leaders must understand how the blame game gets in the way and work to create an organizational culture in which employees feel safe admitting or reporting on failure. Failures fall into three categories: preventable ones in predictable operations, which usually involve deviations from spec; unavoidable ones in complex systems, which may arise from unique combinations of needs, people, and problems; and intelligent ones at the frontier, where "good" failures occur quickly and on a small scale, providing the most valuable information. Strong leadership can build a learning culture-one in which failures large and small are consistently reported and deeply analyzed, and opportunities to experiment are proactively sought. Executives commonly and understandably worry that taking a sympathetic stance toward failure will create an "anything goes" work environment. They should instead recognize that failure is inevitable in today's complex work organizations.

Variation in diurnal sedation in mechanically ventilated patients who are managed with a sedation protocol alone or a sedation protocol and daily interruption.

PubMed

Mehta, Sangeeta; Meade, Maureen; Burry, Lisa; Mallick, Ranjeeta; Katsios, Christina; Fergusson, Dean; Dodek, Peter; Burns, Karen; Herridge, Margaret; Devlin, John W; Tanios, Maged; Fowler, Robert; Jacka, Michael; Skrobik, Yoanna; Olafson, Kendiss; Cook, Deborah

2016-08-01

Mechanically ventilated patients may receive more sedation during the night than during the day, potentially delaying extubation. We compared nighttime and daytime benzodiazepine and opioid administration in adult patients enrolled in a multicenter sedation trial comparing protocolized sedation alone or protocolized sedation combined with daily sedation interruption; and we evaluated whether nighttime and daytime doses were associated with liberation from mechanical ventilation. This is a secondary analysis of a randomized trial which was conducted in 16 North American medical-surgical ICUs. In all 423 patients, nurses applied a validated sedation scale hourly to titrate benzodiazepine and opioid infusions to achieve a light level of sedation. Using fentanyl equivalents and midazolam equivalents, we compared dosages administered during night (19:00 to 07:00) and day (07:00 to 19:00) shifts. Using multivariable logistic regression we evaluated the association between nighttime and daytime opioid and sedative doses, and spontaneous breathing trial (SBT) conduct, SBT success, and extubation. Nighttime benzodiazepine and opioid doses were significantly higher than daytime doses (mean difference midazolam equivalents 23.3 mg, 95 % CI 12.9, 33.8, p < 0.0001; mean difference fentanyl equivalents 356 mcg, 95 % CI 130, 582, p = 0.0021). Mean Sedation Agitation Scale score was similar between night and day, and was at target (3.2 vs 3.3, 95 % CI -0.05, 0.02, p = 0.35). Self-reported nurse workload was similar during the night and day. Patients were more often restrained during day shifts (76.3 % vs 73.7 %, p < 0.0001), and there were more unintentional device removals during the day compared with night (15.9 % vs 9.1 %, p < 0.0001). Increases in nighttime drug doses were independently associated with failure to meet SBT screening criteria, SBT failure, and the decision not to extubate the patient despite successful SBT. Patients received higher doses of

Yield and failure criteria for composite materials under static and dynamic loading

DOE PAGES

Daniel, Isaac M.

2015-12-23

To facilitate and accelerate the process of introducing, evaluating and adopting of new material systems, it is important to develop/establish comprehensive and effective procedures of characterization, modeling and failure prediction of structural laminates based on the properties of the constituent materials, e. g., fibers, matrix, and the single ply or lamina. A new failure theory, the Northwestern (NU-Daniel) theory, has been proposed for predicting lamina yielding and failure under multi-axial states of stress including strain rate effects. It is primarily applicable to matrix-dominated interfiber/interlaminar failures. It is based on micromechanical failure mechanisms but is expressed in terms of easily measuredmore » macroscopic lamina stiffness and strength properties. It is presented in the form of a master failure envelope incorporating strain rate effects. The theory was further adapted and extended to the prediction of in situ first ply yielding and failure (FPY and FPF) and progressive failure of multi-directional laminates under static and dynamic loadings. The significance of this theory is that it allows for rapid screening of new composite materials without very extensive testing and offers easily implemented design tools.« less

Influence of Different Yield Loci on Failure Prediction with Damage Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heibel, S.; Nester, W.; Clausmeyer, T.; Tekkaya, A. E.

2017-09-01

Advanced high strength steels are widely used in the automotive industry to simultaneously improve crash performance and reduce the car body weight. A drawback of these multiphase steels is their sensitivity to damage effects and thus the reduction of ductility. For that reason the Forming Limit Curve is only partially suitable for this class of steels. An improvement in failure prediction can be obtained by using damage mechanics. The objective of this paper is to comparatively review the phenomenological damage model GISSMO and the Enhanced Lemaitre Damage Model. GISSMO is combined with three different yield loci, namely von Mises, Hill48 and Barlat2000 to investigate the influence of the choice of the plasticity description on damage modelling. The Enhanced Lemaitre Model is used with Hill48. An inverse parameter identification strategy for a DP1000 based on stress-strain curves and optical strain measurements of shear, uniaxial, notch and (equi-)biaxial tension tests is applied to calibrate the models. A strong dependency of fracture strains on the choice of yield locus can be observed. The identified models are validated on a cross-die cup showing ductile fracture with slight necking.

CPAP by helmet for treatment of acute respiratory failure after pediatric liver transplantation.

PubMed

Chiusolo, F; Fanelli, V; Ciofi Degli Atti, M L; Conti, G; Tortora, F; Pariante, R; Ravà, L; Grimaldi, C; de Ville de Goyet, J; Picardo, S

2018-02-01

ARF after pediatric liver transplantation accounts for high rate of morbidity and mortality associated with this procedure. The role of CPAP in postoperative period is still unknown. The aim of the study was to describe current practice and risk factors associated with the application of helmet CPAP. In this retrospective observational cohort study, 119 recipients were divided into two groups based on indication to CPAP after extubation. Perioperative variables were studied, and determinants of CPAP application were analyzed in a multivariate logistic model. Sixty patients (60/114) developed ARF and were included in the CPAP group. No differences were found between the two groups for primary disease, graft type, and blood product transfused. At multivariate analysis, weight <11 kg (OR = 2.9; 95% CI = 1.1-7.3; P = .026), PaO 2 /FiO 2 <380 before extubation (OR = 5.4; 95% CI = 2.1-13.6; P < .001), need of vasopressors (OR = 2.6; 95% CI = 1.1-6.4; P = .038), and positive fluid balance >148 mL/kg (OR = 4.0; 95% CI = 1.6-10.1; P = .004) were the main determinants of CPAP application. In the CPAP group, five patients (8.4%) needed reintubation. Pediatric liver recipients with lower weight, higher need of inotropes/vasopressors, higher positive fluid balance after surgery, and lower PaO 2 /FiO 2 before extubation were at higher odds of developing ARF needing CPAP application. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Spatio-temporal propagation of cascading overload failures in spatially embedded networks

PubMed Central

Zhao, Jichang; Li, Daqing; Sanhedrai, Hillel; Cohen, Reuven; Havlin, Shlomo

2016-01-01

Different from the direct contact in epidemics spread, overload failures propagate through hidden functional dependencies. Many studies focused on the critical conditions and catastrophic consequences of cascading failures. However, to understand the network vulnerability and mitigate the cascading overload failures, the knowledge of how the failures propagate in time and space is essential but still missing. Here we study the spatio-temporal propagation behaviour of cascading overload failures analytically and numerically on spatially embedded networks. The cascading overload failures are found to spread radially from the centre of the initial failure with an approximately constant velocity. The propagation velocity decreases with increasing tolerance, and can be well predicted by our theoretical framework with one single correction for all the tolerance values. This propagation velocity is found similar in various model networks and real network structures. Our findings may help to predict the dynamics of cascading overload failures in realistic systems. PMID:26754065

Inflammatory Biomarkers Predict Heart Failure Severity and Prognosis in Patients With Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction: A Holistic Proteomic Approach.

PubMed

Hage, Camilla; Michaëlsson, Erik; Linde, Cecilia; Donal, Erwan; Daubert, Jean-Claude; Gan, Li-Ming; Lund, Lars H

2017-02-01

Underlying mechanisms in heart failure (HF) with preserved ejection fraction remain unknown. We investigated cardiovascular plasma biomarkers in HF with preserved ejection fraction and their correlation to diastolic dysfunction, functional class, pathophysiological processes, and prognosis. In 86 stable patients with HF and EF ≥45% in the Karolinska Rennes (KaRen) biomarker substudy, biomarkers were quantified by a multiplex immunoassay. Orthogonal projection to latent structures by partial least square analysis was performed on 87 biomarkers and 240 clinical variables, ranking biomarkers associated with New York Heart Association (NYHA) Functional class and the composite outcome (all-cause mortality and HF hospitalization). Biomarkers significantly correlated with outcome were analyzed by multivariable Cox regression and correlations with echocardiographic measurements performed. The orthogonal partial least square outcome-predicting biomarker pattern was run against the Ingenuity Pathway Analysis (IPA) database, containing annotated data from the public domain. The orthogonal partial least square analyses identified 32 biomarkers correlated with NYHA class and 28 predicting outcomes. Among outcome-predicting biomarkers, growth/differentiation factor-15 was the strongest and an additional 7 were also significant in Cox regression analyses when adjusted for age, sex, and N-terminal probrain natriuretic peptide: adrenomedullin (hazard ratio per log increase 2.53), agouti-related protein; (1.48), chitinase-3-like protein 1 (1.35), C-C motif chemokine 20 (1.35), fatty acid-binding protein (1.33), tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 (2.29), and TNF-related apoptosis-inducing ligand (0.34). Twenty-three of them correlated with diastolic dysfunction (E/e') and 5 with left atrial volume index. The IPA suggested that increased inflammation, immune activation with decreased necrosis and apoptosis preceded poor outcome. In HF with preserved ejection fraction, novel biomarkers

Failure Assessment Diagram for Brazed 304 Stainless Steel Joints

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Flom, Yory

2011-01-01

Interaction equations were proposed earlier to predict failure in Albemet 162 brazed joints. Present study demonstrates that the same interaction equations can be used for lower bound estimate of the failure criterion in 304 stainless steel joints brazed with silver-based filler metals as well as for construction of the Failure Assessment Diagrams (FAD).

Characterization and prediction of adverse events from intensive chronic heart failure management and effect on quality of life: results from the pro-B-type natriuretic peptide outpatient-tailored chronic heart failure therapy (PROTECT) study.

PubMed

Gandhi, Parul U; Szymonifka, Jackie; Motiwala, Shweta R; Belcher, Arianna M; Januzzi, James L; Gaggin, Hanna K

2015-01-01

Serious adverse events (SAEs) from heart failure (HF) therapy are frequent; however, techniques to identify at-risk patients are inadequate. Furthermore, the relationship between SAEs, quality of life (QOL), and cardiac structure are unknown. 151 symptomatic patients with systolic HF were followed for a mean of 10 months. In this post hoc analysis, treatment-related SAEs included acute renal failure, dizziness, hypo/hyperkalemia, hypotension, and syncope. At 1 year, 21 treatment-related SAEs occurred. No difference in SAEs existed between the N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP)-guided arm and the standard of care arm (P = .20). At baseline, patients who suffered SAEs were less likely to be receiving beta-blockers (85.7% vs 97.7%; P = .009) and had worse functional class and lower chloride levels. Patients who experienced SAEs had less improvement in their Minnesota Living With Heart Failure Questionnaire scores and had a trend toward reduced echocardiographic reverse remodeling over the follow-up period. Univariable and multivariable analyses were conducted to develop a risk score for SAE prediction; patients in the highest risk quartile had the shortest time to first cardiovascular event (P = 0.01). NT-proBNP-guided HF care is safe. Experiencing treatment-related SAEs is associated with worse QOL and potentially reduced reverse remodeling. A risk score to prospectively predict SAEs in aggressive HF management was developed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prediction of Emergent Heart Failure Death by Semi-Quantitative Triage Risk Stratification

PubMed Central

Van Spall, Harriette G. C.; Atzema, Clare; Schull, Michael J.; Newton, Gary E.; Mak, Susanna; Chong, Alice; Tu, Jack V.; Stukel, Thérèse A.; Lee, Douglas S.

2011-01-01

Objectives Generic triage risk assessments are widely used in the emergency department (ED), but have not been validated for prediction of short-term risk among patients with acute heart failure (HF). Our objective was to evaluate the Canadian Triage Acuity Scale (CTAS) for prediction of early death among HF patients. Methods We included patients presenting with HF to an ED in Ontario from Apr 2003 to Mar 2007. We used the National Ambulatory Care Reporting System and vital statistics databases to examine care and outcomes. Results Among 68,380 patients (76±12 years, 49.4% men), early mortality was stratified with death rates of 9.9%, 1.9%, 0.9%, and 0.5% at 1-day, and 17.2%, 5.9%, 3.8%, and 2.5% at 7-days, for CTAS 1, 2, 3, and 4–5, respectively. Compared to lower acuity (CTAS 4–5) patients, adjusted odds ratios (aOR) for 1-day death were 1.32 (95%CI; 0.93–1.88; p = 0.12) for CTAS 3, 2.41 (95%CI; 1.71–3.40; p<0.001) for CTAS 2, and highest for CTAS 1: 9.06 (95%CI; 6.28–13.06; p<0.001). Predictors of triage-critical (CTAS 1) status included oxygen saturation <90% (aOR 5.92, 95%CI; 3.09–11.81; p<0.001), respiratory rate >24 breaths/minute (aOR 1.96, 95%CI; 1.05–3.67; p = 0.034), and arrival by paramedic (aOR 3.52, 95%CI; 1.70–8.02; p = 0.001). While age/sex-adjusted CTAS score provided good discrimination for ED (c-statistic = 0.817) and 1-day (c-statistic = 0.724) death, mortality prediction was improved further after accounting for cardiac and non-cardiac co-morbidities (c-statistics 0.882 and 0.810, respectively; both p<0.001). Conclusions A semi-quantitative triage acuity scale assigned at ED presentation and based largely on respiratory factors predicted emergent death among HF patients. PMID:21853068

Serum Cystatin C Does Not Predict Mortality or Treatment Failure in Peritoneal Dialysis: A Prospective Study.

PubMed

Delaney, Michael P; Stevens, Paul E; Witham, Helen J; Judge, Caroline; Eaglestone, Gillian L; Carter, Joanne L; Bassett, Paul; Lamb, Edmund J

2016-01-01

♦ Small solute clearance, especially that derived from residual renal function (RRF), is an independent risk factor for death in peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients. Assessment of solute clearance is time-consuming and prone to multiple errors. Cystatin C is a small protein which has been used as a glomerular filtration rate (GFR) marker. We investigated whether serum cystatin C concentrations are related to mortality in patients receiving PD. ♦ New and prevalent PD patients (n = 235) underwent assessment of Kt/Vurea, RRF, weekly creatinine clearance (CCr), normalized protein catabolic rate (nPCR) and a peritoneal equilibration test (PET) at intervals. Blood was collected simultaneously for cystatin C measurement. Patients were followed for a median of 1,429 days (range 12 to 2,964 days) until death or study closure. Cause of death was recorded where given. Cox regression was performed to determine whether cystatin C had prognostic value either independently or with adjustment for other factors (age, sex, dialysis modality, diabetic status, cardiovascular comorbidity, Kt/V, CCr, RRF, nPCR or 4 h dialysate to plasma creatinine ratio (4 h D/Pcr) during the PET). The primary outcomes were all-cause mortality and treatment failure. ♦ There were 93 deaths. Increasing age and 4 h D/Pcr ratio, decreased RRF and presence of diabetes were significantly [p < 0.05] negatively associated with survival and treatment failure. Serum cystatin C was not related to either outcome. ♦ Serum cystatin C concentration does not predict mortality or treatment failure in patients receiving PD. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Peritoneal Dialysis.

Predicting Failure in Early Acute Prosthetic Joint Infection Treated With Debridement, Antibiotics, and Implant Retention: External Validation of the KLIC Score.

PubMed

Löwik, Claudia A M; Jutte, Paul C; Tornero, Eduard; Ploegmakers, Joris J W; Knobben, Bas A S; de Vries, Astrid J; Zijlstra, Wierd P; Dijkstra, Baukje; Soriano, Alex; Wouthuyzen-Bakker, Marjan

2018-03-27

Debridement, antibiotics, and implant retention (DAIR) is a widely used treatment modality for early acute prosthetic joint infection (PJI). A preoperative risk score was previously designed for predicting DAIR failure, consisting of chronic renal failure (K), liver cirrhosis (L), index surgery (I), cemented prosthesis (C), and C-reactive protein >115 mg/L (KLIC). The aim of this study was to validate the KLIC score in an external cohort. We retrospectively evaluated patients with early acute PJI treated with DAIR between 2006 and 2016 in 3 Dutch hospitals. Early acute PJI was defined as <21 days of symptoms and DAIR performed within 90 days after index surgery. Failure was defined as the need for (1) second DAIR, (2) implant removal, (3) suppressive antimicrobial treatment, or (4) infection-related death within 60 days after debridement. A total of 386 patients were included. Failure occurred in 148 patients (38.3%). Patients with KLIC scores of ≤2, 2.5-3.5, 4-5, 5.5-6.5, and ≥7 had failure rates of 27.9%, 37.1%, 49.3%, 54.5%, and 85.7%, respectively (P < .001). The receiver-operating characteristic curve showed an area under the curve of 0.64 (95% confidence interval 0.59-0.69). A KLIC score higher than 6 points showed a specificity of 97.9%. The KLIC score is a relatively good preoperative risk score for DAIR failure in patients with early acute PJI and appears to be most useful in clinical practice for patients with low or high KLIC scores. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Biomarkers in acute heart failure.

PubMed

Mallick, Aditi; Januzzi, James L

2015-06-01

The care of patients with acutely decompensated heart failure is being reshaped by the availability and understanding of several novel and emerging heart failure biomarkers. The gold standard biomarkers in heart failure are B-type natriuretic peptide and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, which play an important role in the diagnosis, prognosis, and management of acute decompensated heart failure. Novel biomarkers that are increasingly involved in the processes of myocardial injury, neurohormonal activation, and ventricular remodeling are showing promise in improving diagnosis and prognosis among patients with acute decompensated heart failure. These include midregional proatrial natriuretic peptide, soluble ST2, galectin-3, highly-sensitive troponin, and midregional proadrenomedullin. There has also been an emergence of biomarkers for evaluation of acute decompensated heart failure that assist in the differential diagnosis of dyspnea, such as procalcitonin (for identification of acute pneumonia), as well as markers that predict complications of acute decompensated heart failure, such as renal injury markers. In this article, we will review the pathophysiology and usefulness of established and emerging biomarkers for the clinical diagnosis, prognosis, and management of acute decompensated heart failure. Copyright © 2015 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Direct modeling parameter signature analysis and failure mode prediction of physical systems using hybrid computer optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Drake, R. L.; Duvoisin, P. F.; Asthana, A.; Mather, T. W.

1971-01-01

High speed automated identification and design of dynamic systems, both linear and nonlinear, are discussed. Special emphasis is placed on developing hardware and techniques which are applicable to practical problems. The basic modeling experiment and new results are described. Using the improvements developed successful identification of several systems, including a physical example as well as simulated systems, was obtained. The advantages of parameter signature analysis over signal signature analysis in go-no go testing of operational systems were demonstrated. The feasibility of using these ideas in failure mode prediction in operating systems was also investigated. An improved digital controlled nonlinear function generator was developed, de-bugged, and completely documented.

Comparison of Body Weight Trend Algorithms for Prediction of Heart Failure Related Events in Home Care Setting.

PubMed

Eggerth, Alphons; Modre-Osprian, Robert; Hayn, Dieter; Kastner, Peter; Pölzl, Gerhard; Schreier, Günter

2017-01-01

Automatic event detection is used in telemedicine based heart failure disease management programs supporting physicians and nurses in monitoring of patients' health data. Analysis of the performance of automatic event detection algorithms for prediction of HF related hospitalisations or diuretic dose increases. Rule-Of-Thumb and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) algorithm were applied to body weight data from 106 heart failure patients of the HerzMobil-Tirol disease management program. The evaluation criteria were based on Youden index and ROC curves. Analysis of data from 1460 monitoring weeks with 54 events showed a maximum Youden index of 0.19 for MACD and RoT with a specificity > 0.90. Comparison of the two algorithms for real-world monitoring data showed similar results regarding total and limited AUC. An improvement of the sensitivity might be possible by including additional health data (e.g. vital signs and self-reported well-being) because body weight variations obviously are not the only cause of HF related hospitalisations or diuretic dose increases.

Predictive factors for renal failure and a control and treatment algorithm

PubMed Central

Cerqueira, Denise de Paula; Tavares, José Roberto; Machado, Regimar Carla

2014-01-01

Objectives to evaluate the renal function of patients in an intensive care unit, to identify the predisposing factors for the development of renal failure, and to develop an algorithm to help in the control of the disease. Method exploratory, descriptive, prospective study with a quantitative approach. Results a total of 30 patients (75.0%) were diagnosed with kidney failure and the main factors associated with this disease were: advanced age, systemic arterial hypertension, diabetes mellitus, lung diseases, and antibiotic use. Of these, 23 patients (76.6%) showed a reduction in creatinine clearance in the first 24 hours of hospitalization. Conclusion a decline in renal function was observed in a significant number of subjects, therefore, an algorithm was developed with the aim of helping in the control of renal failure in a practical and functional way. PMID:26107827

Heart failure in South America.

PubMed

Bocchi, Edimar Alcides

2013-05-01

Continued assessment of temporal trends in mortality and epidemiology of specific heart failure in South America is needed to provide a scientific basis for rational allocation of the limited health care resources, and strategies to reduce risk and predict the future burden of heart failure. The epidemiology of heart failure in South America was reviewed. Heart failure is the main cause of hospitalization based on available data from approximately 50% of the South American population. The main etiologies of heart failure are ischemic, idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy, valvular, hypertensive and chagasic etiologies. In endemic areas, Chagas heart disease may be responsible by 41% of the HF cases. Also, heart failure presents high mortality especially in patients with Chagas etiology. Heart failure and etiologies associated with heart failure may be responsible for 6.3% of causes of deaths. Rheumatic fever is the leading cause of valvular heart disease. However, a tendency to reduction of HF mortality due to Chagas heart disease from 1985 to 2006, and reduction in mortality due to HF from 1999 to 2005 were observed in selected states in Brazil. The findings have important public health implications because the allocation of health care resources, and strategies to reduce risk of heart failure should also consider the control of neglected Chagas disease and rheumatic fever in South American countries.

Heart Failure in South America

PubMed Central

Bocchi, Edimar Alcides

2013-01-01

Continued assessment of temporal trends in mortality and epidemiology of specific heart failure in South America is needed to provide a scientific basis for rational allocation of the limited health care resources, and strategies to reduce risk and predict the future burden of heart failure. The epidemiology of heart failure in South America was reviewed. Heart failure is the main cause of hospitalization based on available data from approximately 50% of the South American population. The main etiologies of heart failure are ischemic, idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy, valvular, hypertensive and chagasic etiologies. In endemic areas, Chagas heart disease may be responsible by 41% of the HF cases. Also, heart failure presents high mortality especially in patients with Chagas etiology. Heart failure and etiologies associated with heart failure may be responsible for 6.3% of causes of deaths. Rheumatic fever is the leading cause of valvular heart disease. However, a tendency to reduction of HF mortality due to Chagas heart disease from 1985 to 2006, and reduction in mortality due to HF from 1999 to 2005 were observed in selected states in Brazil. The findings have important public health implications because the allocation of health care resources, and strategies to reduce risk of heart failure should also consider the control of neglected Chagas disease and rheumatic fever in South American countries. PMID:23597301

A Mathematical Model to Predict Endothelial Cell Density Following Penetrating Keratoplasty With Selective Dropout From Graft Failure

PubMed Central

Riddlesworth, Tonya D.; Kollman, Craig; Lass, Jonathan H.; Patel, Sanjay V.; Stulting, R. Doyle; Benetz, Beth Ann; Gal, Robin L.; Beck, Roy W.

2014-01-01

Purpose. We constructed several mathematical models that predict endothelial cell density (ECD) for patients after penetrating keratoplasty (PK) for a moderate-risk condition (principally Fuchs' dystrophy or pseudophakic/aphakic corneal edema). Methods. In a subset (n = 591) of Cornea Donor Study participants, postoperative ECD was determined by a central reading center. Various statistical models were considered to estimate the ECD trend longitudinally over 10 years of follow-up. A biexponential model with and without a logarithm transformation was fit using the Gauss-Newton nonlinear least squares algorithm. To account for correlated data, a log-polynomial model was fit using the restricted maximum likelihood method. A sensitivity analysis for the potential bias due to selective dropout was performed using Bayesian analysis techniques. Results. The three models using a logarithm transformation yield similar trends, whereas the model without the transform predicts higher ECD values. The adjustment for selective dropout turns out to be negligible. However, this is possibly due to the relatively low rate of graft failure in this cohort (19% at 10 years). Fuchs' dystrophy and pseudophakic/aphakic corneal edema (PACE) patients had similar ECD decay curves, with the PACE group having slightly higher cell densities by 10 years. Conclusions. Endothelial cell loss after PK can be modeled via a log-polynomial model, which accounts for the correlated data from repeated measures on the same subject. This model is not significantly affected by the selective dropout due to graft failure. Our findings warrant further study on how this may extend to ECD following endothelial keratoplasty. PMID:25425307

Mitochondrial markers predict recurrence, metastasis and tamoxifen-resistance in breast cancer patients: Early detection of treatment failure with companion diagnostics.

PubMed

Sotgia, Federica; Fiorillo, Marco; Lisanti, Michael P

2017-09-15

Here, we used a data-mining and informatics approach to discover new biomarkers of resistance to hormonal therapy in breast cancer. More specifically, we investigated whether nuclear-encoded genes associated with mitochondrial biogenesis can be used to predict tumor recurrence, distant metastasis and treatment failure in high-risk breast cancer patients. Overall, this strategy allowed us to directly provide in silico validation of the prognostic value of these mitochondrial components in large and clinically relevant patient populations, with >15 years of follow-up data. For this purpose, we employed a group of 145 ER(+) luminal A breast cancer patients, with lymph-node (LN) metastasis at diagnosis, that were treated with tamoxifen, but not any chemotherapy agents. Using this approach, we identified >60 new individual mitochondrial biomarkers that predicted treatment failure and tumor recurrence, with hazard-ratios (HR) of up to 4.17 ( p =2.2e-07). These include mitochondrial chaperones (HSPD1, HSPA9), membrane proteins (VDAC2, TOMM70A) and anti-oxidants (SOD2), as well as 18 different mitochondrial ribosomal proteins (MRPs) and >20 distinct components of the OXPHOS complexes. In addition, we combined 4 mitochondrial proteins (HSPD1, UQCRB, MRPL15, COX17), to generate a compact mitochondrial gene signature, associated with a HR of 5.34 ( p =1e-09). This signature also successfully predicted distant metastasis and was effective in larger groups of ER(+) ( N =2,447), basal ( N =540) and HER2(+) ( N =193) breast cancers. It was also effective in all breast cancers ( N =3,180), if considered together as a single group. Based on this analysis, we conclude that mitochondrial biogenesis should be considered as a new therapeutic target for overcoming tumor recurrence, distant metastasis and treatment failure in patients with breast cancer. In summary, we identified individual mitochondrial biomarkers and 2 compact mitochondrial gene signatures that can be used to predict

Severity of nocturnal hypoxia and daytime hypercapnia predicts CPAP failure in patients with COPD and obstructive sleep apnea overlap syndrome.

PubMed

Kuklisova, Zuzana; Tkacova, Ruzena; Joppa, Pavol; Wouters, Emiel; Sastry, Manuel

2017-02-01

Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are independent risk factors for cardiovascular diseases. In patients with OSA and concurrent COPD, continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) therapy improves survival. Nevertheless, a significant proportion of such patients do not tolerate CPAP. The aim of the present study was to analyze early predictors of CPAP failure in patients with OSA and concurrent COPD, and to evaluate the effects of bilevel positive airway pressure (BiPAP) in this high-risk group of patients. A post hoc analysis from the database of 2100 patients diagnosed with OSA between 2012 and 2014 identified 84 subjects as having concomitant COPD and meeting inclusion criteria. Demographic data, pulmonary function tests, OSA parameters, blood gases, response to CPAP and BiPAP titration, and two months of therapy were collected. A multivariate model was generated to find determinants of CPAP failure. Primary CPAP failure was found in 23% of patients who were more obese (p = 0.018), had worse lung function, lower PO 2 (p = 0.023) and higher PCO 2 while awake (p < 0.001), and more sleep time with an SpO 2  < 90% (CT90%) (p < 0.001) compared to those who responded to CPAP. In multivariate analysis, PCO 2 while awake [odds ratio (OR) 29.5, confidence interval (CI) 2.22-391, p = 0.010] and CT90% (OR 1.06, CI 1.01-1.11, p = 0.017) independently predicted CPAP failure after adjustments for covariates. The BiPAP therapy was well tolerated and effectively alleviated hypercapnia in all patients with primary CPAP failure. Daytime hypercapnia and nocturnal hypoxia are independent predictors of early CPAP failure in patients with the OSA-COPD overlap syndrome. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Failure Mechanisms and Life Prediction of Thermal and Environmental Barrier Coatings under Thermal Gradients

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zju, Dongming; Ghosn, Louis J.; Miller, Robert A.

2008-01-01

Ceramic thermal and environmental barrier coatings (TEBCs) will play an increasingly important role in gas turbine engines because of their ability to further raise engine temperatures. However, the issue of coating durability is of major concern under high-heat-flux conditions. In particular, the accelerated coating delamination crack growth under the engine high heat-flux conditions is not well understood. In this paper, a laser heat flux technique is used to investigate the coating delamination crack propagation under realistic temperature-stress gradients and thermal cyclic conditions. The coating delamination mechanisms are investigated under various thermal loading conditions, and are correlated with coating dynamic fatigue, sintering and interfacial adhesion test results. A coating life prediction framework may be realized by examining the crack initiation and propagation driving forces for coating failure under high-heat-flux test conditions.

The microbiological spectrum and antibiotic sensitivity profile of extubated silicone stents following dacryocystorhinostomy.

PubMed

Ali, Mohammad Javed; Manderwad, Guruprasad; Naik, Milind N

2013-10-01

We aim to report the microbiological spectrum of organisms cultured from extubated silicone stents after a dacryocystorhinostomy and their antibiotic sensitivity patterns. Prospective interventional study. 50 silicone stents of 50 consecutive patients who underwent either external or endonasal dacryocystorhinostomy were enrolled for the study. All the stents were retrieved under endoscopic guidance from the nasal cavity at 3 months following surgery. All the tubes were immediately inoculated onto blood agar, chocolate agar, brain-heart infusion broth, Saboraud's dextrose agar and potato dextrose agar. Data collected and analyzed include demographics, diagnosis, type of dacryocystorhinostomy and the microbiological profile. The culture results, organisms isolated and their antibiotic sensitivity were studied. The mean age of patients at the time of dacyrocystorhinostomy was 34.4 years. Bacterial growth was noted in 88% (44/50) of all the stents cultured, whereas 60% (30/50) grew fungi and 6% (3/50) showed sterile cultures. 48% (24/50) of the stents showed mixed bacterial and fungal isolates. Among the fungal isolates, Aspergillus species accounted for 66.6% (20/30) followed by Fusarium species, which were seen in 26.6% (8/30). Among the bacterial isolates, gram negative organisms were the most common seen in 54.5% (24/44) and the commonest species isolated was Pseudomonas aeruginosa from 27% (12/44) of the stents. Staphylococcus aureus was the commonest gram positive isolate accounting for 18% of all the bacterial isolates. Gram positive organisms were commonly sensitive to cephalosporins and vancomycin whereas gram negative organisms were sensitive to quinolones and aminoglycosides. The surgical success rate was 96% (48/50). Fungal isolates were cultured from significant number of stents retrieved following dacryocystorhinostomy. Gram negative organisms are more common as compared to the gram positive. The organisms isolated were not found to influence the success

A pretreatment nomogram for prediction of biochemical failure after primary cryoablation of the prostate.

PubMed

Elshafei, Ahmed; Kovac, Evan; Dhar, Nivedita; Levy, David; Polascik, Thomas; Mouraviev, Vladimir; Yu, Changhong; Jones, J Stephen

2015-09-01

To create a predictive nomogram for biochemical failure following primary whole-gland cryoablation of the prostate for localized prostate cancer (LPCa). We retrospectively analyzed 2,242 patients from the Cryo On-Line Database (COLD) who were treatment naive and had undergone primary whole gland cryoablation of the prostate for biopsy-confirmed LPCa. Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves estimating 5 year biochemical progression-free survival (bPFS) were generated. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards analysis (CoxPH) was performed in order to construct the nomogram. The nomogram was internally validated using the bootstrap technique. Overall, the KM estimated 5 year bPFS was 72.8%. Stratified by D'Amico risk, The KM estimated 5 year bPFS was 82.6%, 71.1%, and 57.8% for low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups, respectively. Statistically significant predictors of biochemical outcomes from CoxPH analysis were pre-treatment prostate specific antigen (PTPSA) (P < 0.001), total prostate volume (P = 0.004), clinical stage (P = 0.034), and Gleason score (0.004). A nomogram for predicted 5 year biochemical progression free probability was constructed with a concordance index of 0.652. An online risk calculator was also generated. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first predictive nomogram for biochemical outcomes after primary whole gland cryoablation of the prostate using socio-demographic, pretreatment, clinical, and prostate biopsy data. Our nomogram and online risk calculator can guide both patients and urologists for shared decision making regarding definitive treatment options. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Serum microRNA expression patterns that predict early treatment failure in prostate cancer patients.

PubMed

Singh, Prashant K; Preus, Leah; Hu, Qiang; Yan, Li; Long, Mark D; Morrison, Carl D; Nesline, Mary; Johnson, Candace S; Koochekpour, Shahriar; Kohli, Manish; Liu, Song; Trump, Donald L; Sucheston-Campbell, Lara E; Campbell, Moray J

2014-02-15

We aimed to identify microRNA (miRNA) expression patterns in the serum of prostate cancer (CaP) patients that predict the risk of early treatment failure following radical prostatectomy (RP). Microarray and Q-RT-PCR analyses identified 43 miRNAs as differentiating disease stages within 14 prostate cell lines and reflectedpublically available patient data. 34 of these miRNA were detectable in the serum of CaP patients. Association with time to biochemical progression was examined in a cohort of CaP patients following RP. A greater than two-fold increase in hazard of biochemical progression associated with altered expression of miR-103, miR-125b and miR-222 (p<.0008) in the serum of CaP patients. Prediction models based on penalized regression analyses showed that the levels of the miRNAs and PSA together were better at detecting false positives than models without miRNAs, for similar level of sensitivity. Analyses of publically available data revealed significant and reciprocal relationships between changes in CpG methylation and miRNA expression patterns suggesting a role for CpG methylation to regulate miRNA. Exploratory validation supported roles for miR-222 and miR-125b to predict progression risk in CaP. The current study established that expression patterns of serum-detectable miRNAs taken at the time of RP are prognostic for men who are at risk of experiencing subsequent early biochemical progression. These non-invasive approaches could be used to augment treatment decisions.

Predictive value of daily living score in acute respiratory failure of COPD patients requiring invasive mechanical ventilation pilot study.

PubMed

Langlet, Ketty; Van Der Linden, Thierry; Launois, Claire; Fourdin, Caroline; Cabaret, Philippe; Kerkeni, Nadia; Barbe, Coralie; Lebargy, François; Deslée, Gaetan

2012-10-18

Mechanical ventilation (MV) is imperative in many forms of acute respiratory failure (ARF) in COPD patients. Previous studies have shown the difficulty to identify parameters predicting the outcome of COPD patients treated by invasive MV. Our hypothesis was that a non specialized score as the activities daily living (ADL) score may help to predict the outcome of these patients. We studied the outcome of 25 COPD patients admitted to the intensive care unit for ARF requiring invasive MV. The patients were divided into those weaning success (group A n = 17, 68%) or failure (group B n = 8, 32%). We investigated the correlation between the ADL score and the outcome and mortality. The ADL score was higher in group A (5.1 ±1.1 vs 3.7 ± 0.7 in group B, p < 0.01). Weaning was achieved in 76.5% of the cases with an ADL score ≥ 4 and in 23.5% of the cases with an ADL score < 4 (p < 0.05). Pulmonary function test, arterial blood gases collected during period of clinical stability and at admission and nutritional status were similar in both groups. The mortality, at six months, was 36%. The ADL score was a significant predictor of 6-month mortality (80 with an ADL score <4, 20 with an ADL score ≥4, p < 0.01). Our pilot study demonstrates that the ADL score is predictive of weaning success and mortality at 6 months, suggesting that the assessment of daily activities should be an important component of ARF management in COPD patients.

Temporal-varying failures of nodes in networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knight, Georgie; Cristadoro, Giampaolo; Altmann, Eduardo G.

2015-08-01

We consider networks in which random walkers are removed because of the failure of specific nodes. We interpret the rate of loss as a measure of the importance of nodes, a notion we denote as failure centrality. We show that the degree of the node is not sufficient to determine this measure and that, in a first approximation, the shortest loops through the node have to be taken into account. We propose approximations of the failure centrality which are valid for temporal-varying failures, and we dwell on the possibility of externally changing the relative importance of nodes in a given network by exploiting the interference between the loops of a node and the cycles of the temporal pattern of failures. In the limit of long failure cycles we show analytically that the escape in a node is larger than the one estimated from a stochastic failure with the same failure probability. We test our general formalism in two real-world networks (air-transportation and e-mail users) and show how communities lead to deviations from predictions for failures in hubs.

Implantable cardiac resynchronization therapy devices to monitor heart failure clinical status.

PubMed

Fung, Jeffrey Wing-Hong; Yu, Cheuk-Man

2007-03-01

Cardiac resynchronization therapy is a standard therapy for selected patients with heart failure. With advances in technology and storage capacity, the device acts as a convenient platform to provide valuable information about heart failure status in these high-risk patients. Unlike other modalities of investigation which may only allow one-off evaluation, heart failure status can be monitored by device diagnostics including heart rate variability, activity status, and intrathoracic impedance in a continuous basis. These parameters do not just provide long-term prognostic information but also may be useful to predict upcoming heart failure exacerbation. Prompt and early intervention may abort decompensation, prevent hospitalization, improve quality of life, and reduce health care cost. Moreover, this information may be applied to titrate the dosage of medication and monitor response to heart failure treatment. This review will focus on the prognostic and predictive values of heart failure status monitoring provided by these devices.

On rate-state and Coulomb failure models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gomberg, J.; Beeler, N.; Blanpied, M.

2000-01-01

We examine the predictions of Coulomb failure stress and rate-state frictional models. We study the change in failure time (clock advance) Δt due to stress step perturbations (i.e., coseismic static stress increases) added to "background" stressing at a constant rate (i.e., tectonic loading) at time t0. The predictability of Δt implies a predictable change in seismicity rate r(t)/r0, testable using earthquake catalogs, where r0 is the constant rate resulting from tectonic stressing. Models of r(t)/r0, consistent with general properties of aftershock sequences, must predict an Omori law seismicity decay rate, a sequence duration that is less than a few percent of the mainshock cycle time and a return directly to the background rate. A Coulomb model requires that a fault remains locked during loading, that failure occur instantaneously, and that Δt is independent of t0. These characteristics imply an instantaneous infinite seismicity rate increase of zero duration. Numerical calculations of r(t)/r0 for different state evolution laws show that aftershocks occur on faults extremely close to failure at the mainshock origin time, that these faults must be "Coulomb-like," and that the slip evolution law can be precluded. Real aftershock population characteristics also may constrain rate-state constitutive parameters; a may be lower than laboratory values, the stiffness may be high, and/or normal stress may be lower than lithostatic. We also compare Coulomb and rate-state models theoretically. Rate-state model fault behavior becomes more Coulomb-like as constitutive parameter a decreases relative to parameter b. This is because the slip initially decelerates, representing an initial healing of fault contacts. The deceleration is more pronounced for smaller a, more closely simulating a locked fault. Even when the rate-state Δt has Coulomb characteristics, its magnitude may differ by some constant dependent on b. In this case, a rate-state model behaves like a modified

Limits of Predictability of Cascading Overload Failures in Spatially-Embedded Networks with Distributed Flows.

PubMed

Moussawi, A; Derzsy, N; Lin, X; Szymanski, B K; Korniss, G

2017-09-15

Cascading failures are a critical vulnerability of complex information or infrastructure networks. Here we investigate the properties of load-based cascading failures in real and synthetic spatially-embedded network structures, and propose mitigation strategies to reduce the severity of damages caused by such failures. We introduce a stochastic method for optimal heterogeneous distribution of resources (node capacities) subject to a fixed total cost. Additionally, we design and compare the performance of networks with N-stable and (N-1)-stable network-capacity allocations by triggering cascades using various real-world node-attack and node-failure scenarios. We show that failure mitigation through increased node protection can be effectively achieved against single-node failures. However, mitigating against multiple node failures is much more difficult due to the combinatorial increase in possible sets of initially failing nodes. We analyze the robustness of the system with increasing protection, and find that a critical tolerance exists at which the system undergoes a phase transition, and above which the network almost completely survives an attack. Moreover, we show that cascade-size distributions measured in this region exhibit a power-law decay. Finally, we find a strong correlation between cascade sizes induced by individual nodes and sets of nodes. We also show that network topology alone is a weak predictor in determining the progression of cascading failures.

Fear of failure and student athletes' interpersonal antisocial behaviour in education and sport.

PubMed