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Sample records for predict extubation failure

  1. Review article: Extubation of the difficult airway and extubation failure.

    PubMed

    Cavallone, Laura F; Vannucci, Andrea

    2013-02-01

    Respiratory complications after tracheal extubation are associated with significant morbidity and mortality, suggesting that process improvements in this clinical area are needed. The decreased rate of respiratory adverse events occurring during tracheal intubation since the implementation of guidelines for difficult airway management supports the value of education and guidelines in advancing clinical practice. Accurate use of terms in defining concepts and describing distinct clinical conditions is paramount to facilitating understanding and fostering education in the treatment of tracheal extubation-related complications. As an example, understanding the distinction between extubation failure and weaning failure allows one to appreciate the need for pre-extubation tests that focus on assessing airway patency in addition to evaluating the ability to breathe spontaneously. Tracheal reintubation after planned extubation is a relatively rare event in the postoperative period of elective surgeries, with reported rates of reintubation in the operating room and postanesthesia care unit between 0.1% and 0.45%, but is a fairly common event in critically ill patients (0.4%-25%). Conditions such as obesity, obstructive sleep apnea, major head/neck and upper airway surgery, and obstetric and cervical spine procedures carry significantly increased risks of extubation failure and are frequently associated with difficult airway management. Extubation failure follows loss of upper airway patency. Edema, soft tissue collapse, and laryngospasm are among the most frequent mechanisms of upper airway obstruction. Planning for tracheal extubation is a critical component of a successful airway management strategy, particularly when dealing with situations at increased risk for extubation failure and in patients with difficult airways. Adequate planning requires identification of patients who have or may develop a difficult airway, recognition of situations at increased risk of

  2. Predictors of Extubation Failure in Neurocritical Patients Identified by a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Kaibin; Lin, Zhenzhou; Qiao, Weiguang; Pan, Suyue

    2014-01-01

    Background Prediction of extubation failure, particularly in neurocritical patients, is unique and controversial. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify the risk factors for extubation failure in these patients. Methods A literature search of databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, and Web of Science) was performed up to August of 2013 to identify trials that evaluated extubation failure predictors. Included trials were either prospective or retrospective cohort studies. Results Nine studies involving 928 participants were included. The systematic review and meta-analysis revealed that the following were predictive for extubation failure: pneumonia, atelectasis, mechanical ventilation of >24 h, a low Glasgow Coma Scale score (7–9T) (OR = 4.96, 95% CI = 1.61–15.26, P = 0.005), the inability to follow commands (OR = 2.07, 95% CI = 1.15–3.71, P = 0.02), especially the command to close the eyes, thick secretion, and no intact gag reflex. Meanwhile, the following were not predictive for extubation failure: sex, secretion volume, coughing upon suctioning, and the inability to follow one command among showing two fingers, wiggling the toes, or coughing on command. Additionally, some traditional weaning parameters were shown to poorly predict extubation failure in neurocritical patients. Conclusions Besides pneumonia, atelectasis, and the duration of mechanical ventilation, other factors that should be taken into consideration in the prediction of extubation failure when neurocritical patients are weaned from tracheal intubation include neurologic abilities (Glasgow Coma Scale score and following commands), the secretion texture, and the presence of a gag reflex. PMID:25486091

  3. Perioperative Predictors of Extubation Failure and the Effect on Clinical Outcome After Infratentorial Craniotomy.

    PubMed

    Cai, Ye-Hua; Wang, Hai-Tang; Zhou, Jian-Xin

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND The purpose of the study was to analyze the risk factors for failed extubation in subjects submitted to infratentorial craniotomy. MATERIAL AND METHODS Patients aged over 18 years who received infratentorial craniotomy for brain tumor resection were consecutively included in this study. Perioperative variables were collected and analyzed. Univariate analyses and multiple logistic regression were used to derive factors related to failed extubation. Patients had follow-up care until either out of hospital or death. RESULTS Throughout the course of the study, 2118 patients were eligible and 94 (4.4%) suffered from extubation failure at some point during their hospital stay. Five factors were recognized as independent risk factors for postoperative failed extubation: craniotomy history, preoperative lower cranial nerve dysfunction, tumor size, tumor position, and maximum change in blood pressure (BP) during the operation. Failed extubation was related to a higher incidence rate of pneumonia, mortality, unfavorable Glasgow Outcome Scale score, longer stay in the neuro-intensive care unit (ICU) and hospitalization, and higher hospitalization costs compared with successful extubation. CONCLUSIONS History of craniotomy, preoperative lower cranial nerve dysfunction, tumor size, tumor position, and maximum change in BP during the operation were independent risk factors related to postoperative failed extubation in patients submitted to infratentorial craniotomy. Extubation failure raises the incidences of postoperative pneumonia, mortality, and higher hospitalization costs, and prolongs neuro-ICU and postoperative length of stay. PMID:27404044

  4. Perioperative Predictors of Extubation Failure and the Effect on Clinical Outcome After Infratentorial Craniotomy

    PubMed Central

    Cai, Ye-Hua; Wang, Hai-Tang; Zhou, Jian-Xin

    2016-01-01

    Background The purpose of the study was to analyze the risk factors for failed extubation in subjects submitted to infratentorial craniotomy. Material/Methods Patients aged over 18 years who received infratentorial craniotomy for brain tumor resection were consecutively included in this study. Perioperative variables were collected and analyzed. Univariate analyses and multiple logistic regression were used to derive factors related to failed extubation. Patients had follow-up care until either out of hospital or death. Results Throughout the course of the study, 2118 patients were eligible and 94 (4.4%) suffered from extubation failure at some point during their hospital stay. Five factors were recognized as independent risk factors for postoperative failed extubation: craniotomy history, preoperative lower cranial nerve dysfunction, tumor size, tumor position, and maximum change in blood pressure (BP) during the operation. Failed extubation was related to a higher incidence rate of pneumonia, mortality, unfavorable Glasgow Outcome Scale score, longer stay in the neuro-intensive care unit (ICU) and hospitalization, and higher hospitalization costs compared with successful extubation. Conclusions History of craniotomy, preoperative lower cranial nerve dysfunction, tumor size, tumor position, and maximum change in BP during the operation were independent risk factors related to postoperative failed extubation in patients submitted to infratentorial craniotomy. Extubation failure raises the incidences of postoperative pneumonia, mortality, and higher hospitalization costs, and prolongs neuro-ICU and postoperative length of stay. PMID:27404044

  5. Extubation outcome after a successful spontaneous breathing trial: A multicenter validation of a 3-factor prediction model

    PubMed Central

    LIU, YANG; MU, YU; LI, GUO-QIANG; YU, XIN; LI, PEI-JUN; SHEN, ZHI-QI; WANG, HAO-XUN; WEI, LU-QING

    2015-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to validate, and if necessary update, a predictive model previously developed using a classification and regression tree (CART) algorithm for predicting successful extubation (ES) using a new cohort. This prospective cohort study enrolled adults admitted to 10 intensive care units, who had successfully passed a spontaneous breathing trial (SBT) and were considered ready for extubation. After extubation, the patients were followed up for 48 h. The primary outcome measure was ES, defined as the ability to maintain spontaneous unassisted breathing for >48 h after extubation. The 3-factor CART model was applied to patients in this cohort. The predicted probability of ES for each patient in this validation cohort was calculated based on the original CART model using the Laplace correction method. The performance was assessed by discrimination and calibration. A decision curve analysis was used assess the clinical net benefit (NB). Extubation failure (EF) occurred in 90/530 patients (17%). Among the 90 patients, 72 (13.6%) were reintubated, while 18 patients remained on rescue noninvasive ventilation within 48 h after extubation. The original CART model showed high discrimination but only moderate calibration with predicted probabilities that were systematically lower than expected. The original CART model was updated, and the updated model preserved excellent discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.91; 95% confidence interval, 0.87 to 0.93), but exhibited near-perfect calibration (calibration slope, 1; intercept, 0). Between threshold probabilities of 50 and 80%, the NB of using this updated model is significantly improved compared with the current strategy. The updated CART model may be used to estimate the predicted probability of ES after a successful SBT for individual patients. Applying this model appears to produce a substantial clinical consequence with regard to potential reduction in unexpected

  6. Can Machine Learning Methods Predict Extubation Outcome in Premature Infants as well as Clinicians?

    PubMed Central

    Mueller, Martina; Almeida, Jonas S.; Stanislaus, Romesh; Wagner, Carol L.

    2014-01-01

    Rationale Though treatment of the prematurely born infant breathing with assistance of a mechanical ventilator has much advanced in the past decades, predicting extubation outcome at a given point in time remains challenging. Numerous studies have been conducted to identify predictors for extubation outcome; however, the rate of infants failing extubation attempts has not declined. Objective To develop a decision-support tool for the prediction of extubation outcome in premature infants using a set of machine learning algorithms Methods A dataset assembled from 486 premature infants on mechanical ventilation was used to develop predictive models using machine learning algorithms such as artificial neural networks (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), naïve Bayesian classifier (NBC), boosted decision trees (BDT), and multivariable logistic regression (MLR). Performance of all models was evaluated using area under the curve (AUC). Results For some of the models (ANN, MLR and NBC) results were satisfactory (AUC: 0.63–0.76); however, two algorithms (SVM and BDT) showed poor performance with AUCs of ~0.5. Conclusion Clinician's predictions still outperform machine learning due to the complexity of the data and contextual information that may not be captured in clinical data used as input for the development of the machine learning algorithms. Inclusion of preprocessing steps in future studies may improve the performance of prediction models. PMID:25419493

  7. Efficacy and predictors of success of noninvasive ventilation for prevention of extubation failure in critically ill children with heart disease.

    PubMed

    Gupta, Punkaj; Kuperstock, Jacob E; Hashmi, Sana; Arnolde, Vickie; Gossett, Jeffrey M; Prodhan, Parthak; Venkataraman, Shekhar; Roth, Stephen J

    2013-04-01

    The study aimed primarily to evaluate the efficacy of noninvasive ventilation (NIV) and to identify possible predictors for success of NIV therapy in preventing extubation failure in critically ill children with heart disease. The secondary objectives of this study were to assess the efficacy of prophylactic NIV therapy initiated immediately after tracheal extubation and to determine the characteristics, outcomes, and complications associated with NIV therapy in pediatric cardiac patients. A retrospective review examined the medical records of all children between the ages 1 day and 18 years who sustained acute respiratory failure (ARF) that required NIV in the cardiovascular intensive care unit (CVICU) at Lucile Packard Children's Hospital between January 2008 and June 2010. Patients were assigned to a prophylactic group if NIV was started directly after extubation and to a nonprophylactic group if NIV was started after signs and symptoms of ARF developed. Patients were designated as responders if they received NIV and did not require reintubation during their CVICU stay and nonresponders if they failed NIV and reintubation was performed. The data collected included demographic data, preexisting conditions, pre-event characteristics, event characteristics, and outcome data. The outcome data evaluated included success or failure of NIV, duration of NIV, CVICU length of stay (LOS), hospital LOS, and hospital mortality. The two complications of NIV assessed in the study included nasal bridge or forehead skin necrosis and pneumothorax. The 221 eligible events during the study period involved 172 responders (77.8 %) and 49 nonresponders (22.2 %). A total of 201 events experienced by the study cohort received continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP), with 156 responders (78 %), whereas 20 events received bilevel positive airway pressure (BiPAP), with 16 responders (80 %). In the study, 58 events (26.3 %) were assigned to the prophylactic group and 163 events (73

  8. Clinical efficacy of high-flow nasal cannula compared to noninvasive ventilation in patients with post-extubation respiratory failure

    PubMed Central

    Yoo, Jung-Wan; Synn, Ara; Huh, Jin Won; Hong, Sang-Bum; Koh, Younsuck; Lim, Chae-Man

    2016-01-01

    Background/Aims: Post-extubation respiratory failure (PERF) is associated with poor clinica l outcomes. High-f low nasa l cannula (HF NC) ox ygen therapy has been used in patients with respiratory failure, but the clinical benefit in patients with PERF remains unclear. The aim of this study was to evaluate the clinical efficacy of HFNC compared to noninvasive ventilation (NIV) in patients with PERF. Methods: A historic retrospective cohort analysis was performed in 28 beds in the medical Intensive Care Unit (ICU) at a single medical center in South Korea. In total, 73 patients with PERF were enrolled: 39 patients who underwent NIV from April 2007 to March 2009 and 34 patients who received HFNC from April 2009 to May 2011. Results: The rate of avoidance of reintubation was not different between the HFNC group (79.4%) and NIV group (66.7%, p = 0.22). All patients with HFNC tolerated the device, whereas five of those with NIV did not tolerate treatment (p = 0.057). The mean duration of ICU stay was significantly shorter in the HFNC group than in the NIV group (13.4 days vs. 20.6 days, p = 0.015). There was no difference in ICU or in-hospital mortality rate. Conclusions: HFNC is likely to be as effective as, and better tolerated than, NIV for treatment of PERF. PMID:26767861

  9. Predictive Factors for Efficacy and Safety of Prophylactic Theophylline for Extubation in Infants with Apnea of Prematurity

    PubMed Central

    Orita, Yuji; Mitarai, Fumi; Ishitsuka, Yoichi; Irikura, Mitsuru; Shimodozono, Yoshihiro; Douchi, Tsutomu; Takeda, Yasuo; Irie, Tetsumi

    2016-01-01

    Purpose This study aimed to evaluate predictive factors involved in efficacy and safety in Japanese infants who received theophylline therapy to prevent apnea of prematurity (AOP) after weaning from mechanical ventilation. Methods We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of infants who were administered intravenous aminophylline (theophylline ethylenediamine) for AOP at the neonatal intensive care unit, Kagoshima University Hospital, Japan, between January 2009 and June 2013. Results A total of 100 infants were evaluated as two separate groups in terms of efficacy and safety of theophylline. Sixty-seven (67.0%) infants had effective theophylline therapy. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that gestational age at birth was significant, with an odds ratio of 0.59 (p < 0.001). Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed that the cut-off value was 31.1 weeks old for predicting the efficacy of theophylline (specificity, 66.7%; sensitivity, 86.6%; p < 0.001; area under the curve, 0.750; 95% confidence interval, 0.45–0.74). Adverse reactions were identified in 21 (21.0%) infants. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the number of days of theophylline administration from birth was associated with an increased risk of adverse reactions after theophylline administration (p = 0.01). Conclusions Physicians need to be aware of the possibility that theophylline fails to produce therapeutic effects for extubation in infants aged less than 31.1 weeks old, and adverse reactions can easily develop when theophylline is administered soon after birth. PMID:27388444

  10. Detecting failure of climate predictions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Runge, Michael C.; Stroeve, Julienne C.; Barrett, Andrew P.; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2016-01-01

    The practical consequences of climate change challenge society to formulate responses that are more suited to achieving long-term objectives, even if those responses have to be made in the face of uncertainty1, 2. Such a decision-analytic focus uses the products of climate science as probabilistic predictions about the effects of management policies3. Here we present methods to detect when climate predictions are failing to capture the system dynamics. For a single model, we measure goodness of fit based on the empirical distribution function, and define failure when the distribution of observed values significantly diverges from the modelled distribution. For a set of models, the same statistic can be used to provide relative weights for the individual models, and we define failure when there is no linear weighting of the ensemble models that produces a satisfactory match to the observations. Early detection of failure of a set of predictions is important for improving model predictions and the decisions based on them. We show that these methods would have detected a range shift in northern pintail 20 years before it was actually discovered, and are increasingly giving more weight to those climate models that forecast a September ice-free Arctic by 2055.

  11. Predicting Electronic Failure from Smoke

    SciTech Connect

    Tanaka, T.J.

    1999-01-15

    Smoke can cause electronic equipment to fail through increased leakage currents and shorts. Sandia National Laboratories is studying the increased leakage currents caused by smoke with varying characteristics. The objective is to develop models to predict the failure of electronic equipment exposed to smoke. This requires the collection of data on the conductivity of smoke and knowledge of critical electrical systems that control high-consequence operations. We have found that conductivity is a function of the type of fuel, how it is burned, and smoke density. Video recordings of highly biased dc circuits exposed in a test chamber show that during a fire, smoke is attracted to high voltages and can build fragile carbon bridges that conduct leakage currents. The movement of air breaks the bridges, so the conductivity decreases after the fire is extinguished and the test chamber is vented. During the fire, however, electronic equipment may not operate correctly, leading to problems for critical operations dependent on electronic control. The potential for electronic failure is highly dependent on the type of electrical circuit, and Sandia National Laboratories plans to include electrical circuit modeling in the failure models.

  12. [Factors influencing early extubation after open heart surgery].

    PubMed

    Varró, M; Gombocz, K; Wrana, G

    2001-06-10

    The authors have performed a retrospective study in order to review the occurrence and the influencing factors of early extubation among their patients. Those patients who had any severe complication in the immediate postoperative period (pericardial tamponade, low cardiac output syndrome, re-operation due to excessive bleeding, postperfusion lung syndrome, pulmonary edema) preventing early extubation, have been excluded from the study. In the remaining 690 patients early extubation within 8 hours and within 4 hours could be carried out in 525 (76.1%) and 164 cases (23.8%) respectively. Late (beyond 12 hours) extubation occurred in 68 cases (9.9%). Anaesthesia was governed by two different methods. Midazolam and alfentanyl (group 1) were used in 137 cases (19.9%) whilst 553 patients (80.1%) received propofol and alfentanyl (group 2). In group 1 and 2 early extubation was possible in 50.4 and 82.5% respectively (p < 0.0001). In further investigations 27 pre- and intraoperative variables of each patient have been studied and analysed. For statistical analysis authors used the SPSS software including T-test, Mann-Whitney-test, chi-square test and multivariate logistical regression analysis. On the basis of multivariate regression analysis factors influencing early extubation were as follows: age (B = 0.0775; p < 0.001), sex (B = 1.2900; p < 0.001), method of anaesthesia (B = 1.9753; p < 0.001), duration of anaesthesia (B = 0.0053; p < 0.001), re-do operation (B = 1.0482; p = 0.0469) and preoperative congestive heart failure (B = 0.9008; p = 0.0125). Pulmonary diseases known from patient history have not had a deep impact on early extubation. On the basis of our study early extubation has not resulted in an increased number of either the postoperative complications or the occurrence of perioperative myocardial infarction. PMID:11433920

  13. Failure mode analysis to predict product reliability.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zemanick, P. P.

    1972-01-01

    The failure mode analysis (FMA) is described as a design tool to predict and improve product reliability. The objectives of the failure mode analysis are presented as they influence component design, configuration selection, the product test program, the quality assurance plan, and engineering analysis priorities. The detailed mechanics of performing a failure mode analysis are discussed, including one suggested format. Some practical difficulties of implementation are indicated, drawn from experience with preparing FMAs on the nuclear rocket engine program.

  14. Strain limit criteria to predict failure

    SciTech Connect

    Flanders, H.E.

    1995-12-31

    In recent years extensive effort has been expended to qualify existing structures for conditions that are beyond the original design basis. Determination of the component failure load is useful for this type of evaluation. This paper presents criteria based upon strain limits to predict the load at failure. The failure modes addressed are excessive plastic deformations, localized plastic strains, and structural instability. The effects of analytical method sophistication, as built configurations, material properties degradation, and stress state are addressed by the criteria.

  15. Uncertainties in container failure time predictions

    SciTech Connect

    Williford, R.E.

    1990-01-01

    Stochastic variations in the local chemical environment of a geologic waste repository can cause corresponding variations in container corrosion rates and failure times, and thus in radionuclide release rates. This paper addresses how well the future variations in repository chemistries must be known in order to predict container failure times that are bounded by a finite time period within the repository lifetime. Preliminary results indicate that a 5000 year scatter in predicted container failure times requires that repository chemistries be known to within {plus minus}10% over the repository lifetime. These are small uncertainties compared to current estimates. 9 refs., 3 figs.

  16. Myocardial ischaemia during tracheal intubation and extubation.

    PubMed

    Edwards, N D; Alford, A M; Dobson, P M; Peacock, J E; Reilly, C S

    1994-10-01

    The incidence of myocardial ischaemia during tracheal intubation and extubation was compared using ambulatory ECG monitoring in 60 patients undergoing a variety of different surgical operations. Seven patients had myocardial ischaemia after tracheal intubation and seven patients during tracheal extubation. The patients who developed myocardial ischaemia during tracheal extubation had significantly greater rate-pressure products immediately before tracheal extubation (P < 0.05) and 1 min after tracheal extubation (P < 0.01) compared with those patients who did not develop myocardial ischaemia during extubation. PMID:7999498

  17. Prediction of Cascading Failures in Spatial Networks

    PubMed Central

    Shunkun, Yang; Dan, Lu

    2016-01-01

    Cascading overload failures are widely found in large-scale parallel systems and remain a major threat to system reliability; therefore, they are of great concern to maintainers and managers of different systems. Accurate cascading failure prediction can provide useful information to help control networks. However, for a large, gradually growing network with increasing complexity, it is often impractical to explore the behavior of a single node from the perspective of failure propagation. Fortunately, overload failures that propagate through a network exhibit certain spatial-temporal correlations, which allows the study of a group of nodes that share common spatial and temporal characteristics. Therefore, in this study, we seek to predict the failure rates of nodes in a given group using machine-learning methods. We simulated overload failure propagations in a weighted lattice network that start with a center attack and predicted the failure percentages of different groups of nodes that are separated by a given distance. The experimental results of a feedforward neural network (FNN), a recurrent neural network (RNN) and support vector regression (SVR) all show that these different models can accurately predict the similar behavior of nodes in a given group during cascading overload propagation. PMID:27093054

  18. Role of Hematocrit Concentration on Successful Extubation in Critically Ill Patients in the Intensive Care Units

    PubMed Central

    Beigmohammadi, Mohammad Taghi; Hussain Khan, Zahid; Samadi, Shahram; Mahmoodpoor, Ata; Fotouhi, Akbar; Rahimiforoushani, Abbas; Asadi Gharabaghi, Mehrnaz

    2016-01-01

    Background: Hematocrit (Hct) is an important parameter for optimal oxygenation during discontinuation from ventilator, but there is no consensus about its concentration and effectiveness on successful extubation. Objectives: The current study aimed to determine the role of Hct concentration on extubation failure in critically ill patients. Patients and Methods: The current prospective cohort study investigated the effect of age, gender and Hct level on successful extubation of 163 mechanically ventilated patients in Imam Khomeini hospital intensive care units (ICUs), Tehran, Iran. Following successful weaning process, the patients were classified into two groups on the basis of Hct level; 62 with an Hct level of 21% - 27% and the other 101 patients with Hct levels above 27%. The data were analyzed by chi-square test and multiple logistic regressions. A probability value of less than 0.05 was considered significant. Results: There was no significant association between the level of Hct concentration and extubation failure (8.9% vs. 9.2%, P = 0.507). Gender and age were significantly associated with extubation failure (OR = 9.1, P = 0.034, OR = 12.5, P = 0.014, respectively). Although the differences between, before and after extubation of PaO2 and P/F ratio, were of significant values between the two different groups of Hct (P = 0.001, P = 0.004 respectively), they had no effect on the failure of extubation (P= 0.259, P = 0.403, respectively). Conclusions: Although some studies showed association between anemia and extubation failure, the current study could not confirm it. The study showed that males, regardless of the Hct level, had a better extubation success rate than those of females. PMID:27110535

  19. Videos in clinical medicine. Endotracheal extubation.

    PubMed

    Ortega, Rafael; Connor, Christopher; Rodriguez, Gerardo; Spencer, Caresse

    2014-01-16

    Endotracheal extubation should be performed without causing trauma, while maintaining adequate oxygenation and ventilation. The equipment needed to provide suction, ventilation, and reintubation should be readily available. If extubation is judged to be unsafe, the procedure should be postponed and the patient reevaluated. Most complications related to extubation are preventable. Before performing extubation, the clinician must carefully prepare the medical resources needed to address reasonably foreseeable complications. A failed extubation can lead to a precipitous deterioration in the patient's condition, and attempts to improvise solutions under these challenging circumstances are rarely satisfactory. PMID:24428490

  20. Multifactorial Risk Index for Predicting Postoperative Respiratory Failure in Men After Major Noncardiac Surgery

    PubMed Central

    Arozullah, Ahsan M.; Daley, Jennifer; Henderson, William G.; Khuri, Shukri F.

    2000-01-01

    Objective To develop and validate a preoperative risk index for predicting postoperative respiratory failure (PRF). Summary Background Data Respiratory failure is an important postoperative complication. Method Based on a prospective cohort study, cases from 44 Veterans Affairs Medical Centers (n = 81,719) were used to develop the models. Cases from 132 Veterans Affairs Medical Centers (n = 99,390) were used as a validation sample. PRF was defined as mechanical ventilation for more than 48 hours after surgery or reintubation and mechanical ventilation after postoperative extubation. Ventilator-dependent, comatose, do not resuscitate, and female patients were excluded. Results PRF developed in 2,746 patients (3.4%). The respiratory failure risk index was developed from a simplified logistic regression model and included abdominal aortic aneurysm repair, thoracic surgery, neurosurgery, upper abdominal surgery, peripheral vascular surgery, neck surgery, emergency surgery, albumin level less than 30 g/L, blood urea nitrogen level more than 30 mg/dL, dependent functional status, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and age. Conclusions The respiratory failure risk index is a validated model for identifying patients at risk for developing PRF and may be useful for guiding perioperative respiratory care. PMID:10903604

  1. Factors Predicting Meniscal Allograft Transplantation Failure

    PubMed Central

    Parkinson, Ben; Smith, Nicholas; Asplin, Laura; Thompson, Peter; Spalding, Tim

    2016-01-01

    Background: Meniscal allograft transplantation (MAT) is performed to improve symptoms and function in patients with a meniscal-deficient compartment of the knee. Numerous studies have shown a consistent improvement in patient-reported outcomes, but high failure rates have been reported by some studies. The typical patients undergoing MAT often have multiple other pathologies that require treatment at the time of surgery. The factors that predict failure of a meniscal allograft within this complex patient group are not clearly defined. Purpose: To determine predictors of MAT failure in a large series to refine the indications for surgery and better inform future patients. Study Design: Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: All patients undergoing MAT at a single institution between May 2005 and May 2014 with a minimum of 1-year follow-up were prospectively evaluated and included in this study. Failure was defined as removal of the allograft, revision transplantation, or conversion to a joint replacement. Patients were grouped according to the articular cartilage status at the time of the index surgery: group 1, intact or partial-thickness chondral loss; group 2, full-thickness chondral loss 1 condyle; and group 3, full-thickness chondral loss both condyles. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to determine significant predictors of failure, independently of other factors. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were produced for overall survival and significant predictors of failure in the Cox proportional hazards model. Results: There were 125 consecutive MATs performed, with 1 patient lost to follow-up. The median follow-up was 3 years (range, 1-10 years). The 5-year graft survival for the entire cohort was 82% (group 1, 97%; group 2, 82%; group 3, 62%). The probability of failure in group 1 was 85% lower (95% CI, 13%-97%) than in group 3 at any time. The probability of failure with lateral allografts was 76% lower (95% CI, 16%-89%) than medial allografts at

  2. PET(CO2) measurement and feature extraction of capnogram signals for extubation outcomes from mechanical ventilation.

    PubMed

    Rasera, Carmen C; Gewehr, Pedro M; Domingues, Adriana Maria T

    2015-02-01

    Capnography is a continuous and noninvasive method for carbon dioxide (CO2) measurement, and it has become the standard of care for basic respiratory monitoring for intubated patients in the intensive care unit. In addition, it has been used to adjust ventilatory parameters during mechanical ventilation (MV). However, a substantial debate remains as to whether capnography is useful during the process of weaning and extubation from MV during the postoperative period. Thus, the main objective of this study was to present a new use for time-based capnography data by measuring the end-tidal CO2 pressure ([Formula: see text]), partial pressure of arterial CO2 ([Formula: see text]) and feature extraction of capnogram signals before extubation from MV to evaluate the capnography as a predictor of outcome extubation in infants after cardiac surgery. Altogether, 82 measurements were analysed, 71.9% patients were successfully extubated, and 28.1% met the criteria for extubation failure within 48 h. The ROC-AUC analysis for quantitative measure of the capnogram showed significant differences (p < 0.001) for: expiratory time (0.873), slope of phase III (0.866), slope ratio (0.923) and ascending angle (0.897). In addition, the analysis of [Formula: see text] (0.895) and [Formula: see text] (0.924) obtained 30 min before extubation showed significant differences between groups. The [Formula: see text] mean value for success and failure extubation group was 39.04 mmHg and 46.27 mmHg, respectively. It was also observed that high CO2 values in patients who had returned MV was 82.8  ±  21 mmHg at the time of extubation failure. Thus, [Formula: see text] measurements and analysis of features extracted from a capnogram can differentiate extubation outcomes in infant patients under MV, thereby reducing the physiologic instability caused by failure in this process. PMID:25582400

  3. Factors Influencing Progressive Failure Analysis Predictions for Laminated Composite Structure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Knight, Norman F., Jr.

    2008-01-01

    Progressive failure material modeling methods used for structural analysis including failure initiation and material degradation are presented. Different failure initiation criteria and material degradation models are described that define progressive failure formulations. These progressive failure formulations are implemented in a user-defined material model for use with a nonlinear finite element analysis tool. The failure initiation criteria include the maximum stress criteria, maximum strain criteria, the Tsai-Wu failure polynomial, and the Hashin criteria. The material degradation model is based on the ply-discounting approach where the local material constitutive coefficients are degraded. Applications and extensions of the progressive failure analysis material model address two-dimensional plate and shell finite elements and three-dimensional solid finite elements. Implementation details are described in the present paper. Parametric studies for laminated composite structures are discussed to illustrate the features of the progressive failure modeling methods that have been implemented and to demonstrate their influence on progressive failure analysis predictions.

  4. Predicting Failure Progression and Failure Loads in Composite Open-Hole Tension Coupons

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Arunkumar, Satyanarayana; Przekop, Adam

    2010-01-01

    Failure types and failure loads in carbon-epoxy [45n/90n/-45n/0n]ms laminate coupons with central circular holes subjected to tensile load are simulated using progressive failure analysis (PFA) methodology. The progressive failure methodology is implemented using VUMAT subroutine within the ABAQUS(TradeMark)/Explicit nonlinear finite element code. The degradation model adopted in the present PFA methodology uses an instantaneous complete stress reduction (COSTR) approach to simulate damage at a material point when failure occurs. In-plane modeling parameters such as element size and shape are held constant in the finite element models, irrespective of laminate thickness and hole size, to predict failure loads and failure progression. Comparison to published test data indicates that this methodology accurately simulates brittle, pull-out and delamination failure types. The sensitivity of the failure progression and the failure load to analytical loading rates and solvers precision is demonstrated.

  5. Failure strength prediction for adhesively bonded single lap joints

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rahman, Niat Mahmud

    For adhesively bonded joint, failure strength depends on many factors such as material properties (both adhesive and adherend), specimen geometries, test environments, surface preparation procedures, etc. Failure occurs inside constitutive materials or along joint interfaces. Based on location, adhesively bonded failure mode can be classified as adhesive failure mode, cohesive failure mode and adherend failure mode. Failure mode directly affects the failure strength of joint. For last eight decades, researchers have developed analytical, empirical or semi-empirical methods capable of predicting failure strength for adhesively bonded joints generating either cohesive failure or adherend failure. Applicability of most of the methods is limited to particular cases. In this research, different failure modes for single lap joints (SLJs) were generated experimentally using epoxy based paste adhesive. Based on experimental data and analytical study, simplified failure prediction methods were developed for each failure mode. For adhesive failure mode, it is observed that peel stress distributions concur along interface near crack initiation points. All SLJs for this test endured consistent surface treatments. Geometric parameters of the joints were varied to study their effect on failure strength. Peel stress distributions were calculated using finite analysis (FEA). Based on peel stress distribution near crack initiation point, a failure model is proposed. Numerous analytical, empirical and semi-empirical models are available for predicting failure strengths of SLJs generating cohesive failures. However, most of the methods in the literature failed to capture failure behavior of SLJs having thickness of adhesive layer as variable. Cohesive failure mode was generated experimentally using aluminum as adherend and epoxy adhesive considering thickness of adhesive layers as variable within SLJs. Comparative study was performed among various methods. It was observed that

  6. Predicting Computer System Failures Using Support Vector Machines

    SciTech Connect

    Fulp, Errin W.; Fink, Glenn A.; Haack, Jereme N.

    2008-12-07

    Mitigating the impact of computer failure is possible if accurate failure predictions are provided. Resources, applications, and services can be scheduled around predicted failure and limit the impact. Such strategies are especially important for multi-computer systems, such as compute clusters, that experience a higher rate failure due to the large number of components. However providing accurate predictions with sufficient lead time remains a challenging problem. This paper describes a new spectrum-kernel Support Vector Machine (SVM) approach to predict failure events based on system log files. These files contain messages that represent a change of system state. While a single message in the file may not be sufficient for predicting failure, a sequence or pattern of messages may be. The approach described in this paper will use a sliding window (sub-sequence) of messages to predict the likelihood of failure. The frequency representation of the message sub-sequences observed are then used as input to the SVM that associates the messages to a class of failed or non-failed system. Experimental results using actual system log files from a Linux-based compute cluster indicate the proposed SVM approach can predict hard disk failure with an accuracy of 76% one day in advance.

  7. Ultra fast-track extubation in heart transplant surgery patients

    PubMed Central

    Kianfar, Amir Abbas; Ahmadi, Zargham Hossein; Mirhossein, Seyed Mohsen; Jamaati, Hamidreza; Kashani, Babak Sharif; Mohajerani, Seyed Amir; Firoozi, Ehsan; Salehi, Farshid; Radmand, Golnar; Hashemian, Seyed Mohammadreza

    2015-01-01

    Background: Heart transplant surgeries using cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) typically requires mechanical ventilation in intensive care units (ICU) in post-operation period. Ultra fast-track extubation (UFE) have been described in patients undergoing various cardiac surgeries. Aim: To determine the possibility of ultra-fast-track extubation instead of late extubation in post heart transplant patients. Materials and Methods: Patients randomly assigned into two groups; Ultra fast-track extubation (UFE) group was defined by extubation inside operating room right after surgery. Late extubation group was defined by patients who were not extubated in operating room and transferred to post operation cardiac care unit (CCU) to extubate. Results: The mean cardiopulmonary bypass time was 136.8 ± 25.7 minutes in ultra-fast extubation and 145.3 ± 29.8 minutes in late extubation patients (P > 0.05). Mechanical ventilation duration (days) was 0 days in ultra-fast and 2.31 ± 1.8 days in late extubation. Length of ICU stay was significantly higher in late extubation group (4.2 ± 1.2 days) than the UFE group (1.72 ± 1.5 days) (P = 0.02). In survival analysis there was no significant difference between ultra-fast and late extubation groups (Log-rank test, P = 0.9). Conclusions: Patients undergoing cardiac transplant could be managed with “ultra-fast-track extubation”, without increased morbidity and mortality. PMID:26157651

  8. Stress chemiluminescence: predictive applications to polymer failure

    SciTech Connect

    Richardson, J.H.; Monaco, S.B.; Breshears, J.D.; Johnson, D.C.; Lanning, S.M.; Morgan, R.J.

    1981-10-01

    A computer-controlled stress chemiluminescence instrument has been designed and assembled. A LSI-11 microprocessor is used to ramp the stepping motor which applies the stress to the polymer sample. The computer also acquires data from the load cell and the photon counter, and outputs the essential data to either a printer or floppy disk for storage and subsequent manipulation. The stress chemiluminescence technique has been previously reported by Levy and Fanter: the significant result of this work is the correlation of an enhanced chemiluminescence signal in a low stress environment with the subsequent premature mechanical failure of the polymer sample. Currently only epoxy and nylon samples have been examined; not all epoxy polymers appear to have this correlation between mechanical failure and stress chemiluminescence signal (of course, previous work by Levy and Fanter indicated that not all polymers exhibit a correlation between stress and chemiluminescence). The technique will be extended to fibers, composites, and polymers subjected to accelerated aging.

  9. Predictability of steel containment response near failure

    SciTech Connect

    Costello, J.F.; Ludwigsen, J.S.; Luk, V.K.; Hessheimer, M.F.

    2000-01-06

    The Nuclear Power Engineering Corporation of Japan and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, are co-sponsoring and jointly funding a Cooperative Containment Research Program at Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA. As a part of this program, a steel containment vessel model and contact structure assembly was tested to failure with over pressurization at Sandia on December 11--12, 1996. The steel containment vessel model was a mixed-scale model (1:10 in geometry and 1:4 in shell thickness) of a steel containment for an improved Mark-II Boiling Water Reactor plant in Japan. The contact structure, which is a thick, bell-shaped steel shell separated at a nominally uniform distance from the model, provides a simplified representation of features of the concrete reactor shield building in the actual plant. The objective of the internal pressurization test was to provide measurement data of the structural response of the model up to its failure in order to validate analytical modeling, to find its pressure capacity, and to observe the failure model and mechanisms.

  10. Reflex cough PEF as a predictor of successful extubation in neurological patients*

    PubMed Central

    Kutchak, Fernanda Machado; Debesaitys, Andressa Maciel; Rieder, Marcelo de Mello; Meneguzzi, Carla; Skueresky, Amanda Soares; Alberto, Luiz; Bianchin, Marino Muxfeldt

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Objective: To evaluate the use of reflex cough PEF as a predictor of successful extubation in neurological patients who were candidates for weaning from mechanical ventilation. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study of 135 patients receiving mechanical ventilation for more than 24 h in the ICU of Cristo Redentor Hospital, in the city of Porto Alegre, Brazil. Reflex cough PEF, the rapid shallow breathing index, MIP, and MEP were measured, as were ventilatory, hemodynamic, and clinical parameters. Results: The mean age of the patients was 47.8 ± 17 years. The extubation failure rate was 33.3%. A reflex cough PEF of < 80 L/min showed a relative risk of 3.6 (95% CI: 2.0-6.7), and the final Glasgow Coma Scale score showed a relative risk of 0.64 (95% CI: 0.51-0.83). For every 1-point increase in a Glasgow Coma Scale score of 8, there was a 36% reduction in the risk of extubation failure. Conclusions: Reflex cough PEF and the Glasgow Coma Scale score are independent predictors of extubation failure in neurological patients admitted to the ICU. PMID:26398756

  11. Predicting viscoelastic response and delayed failures in general laminated composites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dillard, D. A.; Morris, D. H.; Brinson, H. F.

    1982-01-01

    Although graphite fibers behave in an essentially elastic manner, the polymeric matrix of graphite/epoxy composites is a viscoelastic material which exhibits creep and delayed failures. The creep process is quite slow at room temperature, but may be accelerated by higher temperatures, moisture absorption, and other factors. Techniques are being studied to predict long-term behavior of general laminates based on short-term observations of the unidirectional material at elevated temperatures. A preliminary numerical procedure based on lamination theory is developed for predicting creep and delayed failures in laminated composites. A modification of the Findley nonlinear power law is used to model the constitutive behavior of a lamina. An adaptation of the Tsai-Hill failure criterion is used to predict the time-dependent strength of a lamina. Predicted creep and delayed failure results are compared with typical experimental data.

  12. Prediction of Technological Failures in Nuclear Power Plant Operation

    SciTech Connect

    Salnykov, A. A.

    2015-01-15

    A method for predicting operating technological failures in nuclear power plants which makes it possible to reduce the unloading of the generator unit during the onset and development of an anomalous engineering state of the equipment by detecting a change in state earlier and taking suitable measures. With the circulating water supply loop of a nuclear power plant as an example, scenarios and algorithms for predicting technological failures in the operation of equipment long before their actual occurrence are discussed.

  13. Computational Methods for Failure Analysis and Life Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Noor, Ahmed K. (Compiler); Harris, Charles E. (Compiler); Housner, Jerrold M. (Compiler); Hopkins, Dale A. (Compiler)

    1993-01-01

    This conference publication contains the presentations and discussions from the joint UVA/NASA Workshop on Computational Methods for Failure Analysis and Life Prediction held at NASA Langley Research Center 14-15 Oct. 1992. The presentations focused on damage failure and life predictions of polymer-matrix composite structures. They covered some of the research activities at NASA Langley, NASA Lewis, Southwest Research Institute, industry, and universities. Both airframes and propulsion systems were considered.

  14. Two-parameter Failure Model Improves Time-independent and Time-dependent Failure Predictions

    SciTech Connect

    Huddleston, R L

    2004-01-27

    A new analytical model for predicting failure under a generalized, triaxial stress state was developed by the author and initially reported in 1984. The model was validated for predicting failure under elevated-temperature creep-rupture conditions. Biaxial data for three alloy steels, Types 304 and 316 stainless steels and Inconel 600, demonstrated two to three orders of magnitude reduction in the scatter of predicted versus observed creep-rupture times as compared to the classical failure models of Mises, Tresca, and Rankine. In 1990, the new model was incorporated into American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Code Case N47-29 for design of components operating under creep-rupture conditions. The current report provides additional validation of the model for predicting failure under time-independent conditions and also outlines a methodology for predicting failure under cyclic, time-dependent, creep-fatigue conditions. The later extension of the methodology may have the potential to improve failure predictions there as well. These results are relevant to most design applications, but they have special relevance to high-performance design applications such as components for high-pressure equipment, nuclear reactors, and jet engines.

  15. Review on failure prediction techniques of composite single lap joint

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ab Ghani A., F.; Rivai, Ahmad

    2016-03-01

    Adhesive bonding is the most appropriate joining method in construction of composite structures. The use of reliable design and prediction technique will produce better performance of bonded joints. Several papers from recent papers and journals have been reviewed and synthesized to understand the current state of the art in this area. It is done by studying the most relevant analytical solutions for composite adherends with start of reviewing the most fundamental ones involving beam/plate theory. It is then extended to review single lap joint non linearity and failure prediction and finally on the failure prediction on composite single lap joint. The review also encompasses the finite element modelling part as tool to predict the elastic response of composite single lap joint and failure prediction numerically.

  16. A multiple regression equation for prediction of posthepatectomy liver failure.

    PubMed Central

    Yamanaka, N; Okamoto, E; Kuwata, K; Tanaka, N

    1984-01-01

    This article reports a multiple regression equation for prediction of posthepatectomy liver failure. In phase I, using the correlations between 17 preoperative parameters (Xi) and the postoperative course scored (Y) of the past 36 hepatectomized patients, we proposed the following multiple regression equation: Y = -110 + 0.942 X resection rate (%) + 1.36 X ICG retention rate (%) + 1.17 X patient's age + 5.94 X ICG maximal removal rate (mg/kg/min). With the equation, the calculated Y value (prediction score) of these patients revealed that prediction scores of the eight nonsurvivors with liver failure were more than 50 points while those of the 28 survivors were 50 points or less. In phase II, the relationships between early prognosis and a precalculated prediction score were prospectively found the same as that seen in phase I. These findings indicate that our formula is a useful prognostic index for prediction of posthepatectomy liver failure. PMID:6486915

  17. Predicting Modes and Displacements of Seismic Rock Slope Failures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gibson, M. D.; Wartman, J.; Keefer, D. K.; Maclaughlin, M.; Arnold, L.; Applegate, K. N.; Smith, S.; Adams, S.

    2013-12-01

    Seismically induced rock slope failures have resulted in billions of dollars of economic damage and enormous loss of life throughout the world. Accurate prediction of the triggering and run out of these failures is elusive for a variety of reasons, including knowledge of the physical modes of failure. Our research explores the potential failure modes of an idealized rigid rock block and expands the modes typically considered to include not only sliding but also toppling (pure forward rotation) and slumping (combined backward rotation and translation). The yield acceleration (or minimum inertial acceleration to cause block movement) for slumping, similar to toppling, is found to be lower than for pure translational sliding. These yield accelerations indicate the initial modes of rock block failure; however, they do not always predict the ultimate failure mode. To predict the final failure modes, the results of discrete element numerical analyses were compared to pseudo static yield acceleration to develop a seismic failure mode decision-making chart based on block geometry and interface friction. With regard to seismic displacement predictions, current simplified models predicting ultimate displacement of a mass under seismic conditions are limited to purely translating, sliding blocks (i.e. Newmark's sliding block method). Our modeling introduces additional simplified analyses to predict ultimate displacement in toppling and slumping modes as well. Important findings from these new methods are that the magnitude of seismically-induced displacement is dependent on the size of the block (or failure mass) and that as the yield acceleration decreases the seismically induced displacements increase. We plan to map these tools into analyses that evaluate rock slope systems with complex geology and geotechnical characteristics. It is envisioned that the decision chart, which predicts the initial and ultimate modes of failure based on block geometry and interface friction

  18. Prediction failure of a wolf landscape model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mech, L.D.

    2006-01-01

    I compared 101 wolf (Canis lupus) pack territories formed in Wisconsin during 1993-2004 to the logistic regression predictive model of Mladenoff et al. (1995, 1997, 1999). Of these, 60% were located in putative habitat suitabilities 50% remained unoccupied by known packs after 24 years of recolonization. This model was a poor predictor of wolf re-colonizing locations in Wisconsin, apparently because it failed to consider the adaptability of wolves. Such models should be used cautiously in wolf-management or restoration plans.

  19. Electrical impedance tomography to evaluate air distribution prior to extubation in very-low-birth-weight infants: a feasibility study

    PubMed Central

    de Souza Rossi, Felipe; Yagui, Ana Cristina Zanon; Haddad, Luciana Branco; Deutsch, Alice D'Agostini; Rebello, Celso Moura

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Nasal continuous positive airway pressure is used as a standard of care after extubation in very-low-birth-weight infants. A pressure of 5 cmH2O is usually applied regardless of individual differences in lung compliance. Current methods for evaluation of lung compliance and air distribution in the lungs are thus imprecise for preterm infants. This study used electrical impedance tomography to determine the feasibility of evaluating the positive end-expiratory pressure level associated with a more homogeneous air distribution within the lungs before extubation. METHODS: Ventilation homogeneity was defined by electrical impedance tomography as the ratio of ventilation between dependent and non-dependent lung areas. The best ventilation homogeneity was achieved when this ratio was equal to 1. Just before extubation, decremental expiratory pressure levels were applied (8, 7, 6 and 5 cmH20; 3 minutes each step), and the pressure that determined the best ventilation homogeneity was defined as the best positive end-expiratory pressure. RESULTS: The best positive end-expiratory pressure value was 6.3±1.1 cmH20, and the mean continuous positive airway pressure applied after extubation was 5.2±0.4 cmH20 (p = 0.002). The extubation failure rate was 21.4%. X-Ray and blood gases after extubation were also checked. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates that electrical impedance tomography can be safely and successfully used in patients ready for extubation to suggest the best ventilation homogeneity, which is influenced by the level of expiratory pressure applied. In this feasibility study, the best lung compliance was found with pressure levels higher than the continuous positive airway pressure levels that are usually applied for routine extubation. PMID:23644854

  20. Failure prediction for cross-rolled beryllium sheet material

    SciTech Connect

    Roschke, P.; Mascorro, E.

    1996-04-01

    A failure model for cross-rolled beryllium SR-200 sheets is developed for material loaded in a complex state of stress. Coefficients of the Tsai-Wu criterion are determined from a series of special laboratory experiments. Tests include circular plates loaded by a concentric ring, as well as in-plane compression and off-axis plate specimens. Complex states of stress lead to brittle failure of the anisotropic material. Failure surfaces obtained from the criterion form a family of ellipses when plotted in standard Cartesian coordinates. The criterion is incorporated into a general purpose finite element analysis code. Numerical simulation incrementally applies loads to a structural component that i being designed and checks each nodal point in the model for exceedance of the failure criterion. To demonstrate applicability of the predictive capability of the criterion, a 2.54-mm thick beryllium plate is placed under clamped edge conditions and loaded to failure by a central transverse point load. A numerical model of the structure predicts the failure load to within 3%.

  1. Predicted and actual high voltage failure - A case history

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fowler, P. H.; Brent, D. A.; Sidio, G. J.

    In the process of re-developing a high voltage transformer for space use, excellent correlation was found between predicted mechanical failure, predicted partial discharge signature, and real behavior of the parts. Some useful design and inspection criteria for potted high voltage parts were developed on a consistent basis. It was found that partial discharge testing as normally implemented will not necessarily discern all life limiting defects. Three lines of investigation were followed: material properties and stress analysis, prediction of partial discharge signature as a function of defect size, and computer field stress analysis to predict which defects are capable of discharge.

  2. Composite failure prediction of π-joint structures under bending

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Hong-mei; Yuan, Shen-fang

    2012-03-01

    In this article, the composite -joint is investigated under bending loads. The "L" preform is the critical component regarding composite -joint failure. The study is presented in the failure detection of a carbon fiber composite -joint structure under bending loads using fiber Bragg grating (FBG) sensor. Firstly, based on the general finite element method (FEM) software, the 3-D finite element (FE) model of composite -joint is established, and the failure process and every lamina failure load of composite -joint are investigated by maximum stress criteria. Then, strain distributions along the length of FBG are extracted, and the reflection spectra of FBG are calculated according to the strain distribution. Finally, to verify the numerical results, a test scheme is performed and the experimental spectra of FBG are recorded. The experimental results indicate that the failure sequence and the corresponding critical loads of failure are consistent with the numerical predictions, and the computational error of failure load is less than 6.4%. Furthermore, it also verifies the feasibility of the damage detection system.

  3. Respiratory and hemodynamic outcomes following exchange extubation with laryngeal mask airway as compared to traditional awake extubation

    PubMed Central

    Suppiah, Ramanathan Kannan; Rajan, Sunil; Paul, Jerry; Kumar, Lakshmi

    2016-01-01

    Background: Traditional awake extubation leads to respiratory complications and hemodynamic response which are detrimental in neurosurgery, ENT surgery and patients with comorbidities. Aims: The primary objective was to compare the respiratory complications and hemodynamic stress response between traditional awake extubation of a endotracheal tube (ETT) and that following exchange extubation of ETT by using a laryngeal mask airway (LMA). Settings and Design: This prospective randomized study was conducted in a Tertiary Care Centre in 60 American Society of Anesthesiologists I and II patients coming for general surgery. Materials and Methods: Patients were randomized by permuted blocks into traditional awake extubation group and exchange extubation group. At the end of surgery in traditional group, awake extubation of ETT was done. In exchange group, 0.3 mg/kg propofol was administered, and the ETT was exchanged for a LMA. Awake extubation of LMA was then performed. Respiratory complications such as bucking, coughing, desaturation and the need for airway maneuvers and hemodynamic response were noted in both groups. Analysis Tools: Chi-square test, independent sample t- and paired t-tests were used as applicable. Results: Incidence of respiratory complication was 93.3% in traditional extubation while it was only 36.7% in exchange extubation group (P < 0.001). Hemodynamic response measured immediately at extubation in terms of heart rate, systolic blood pressure (BP), diastolic BP, mean arterial pressure, and rate pressure product were all significantly lesser in exchange group when compared to traditional extubation. Conclusion: Exchange extubation with LMA decreases respiratory complications and hemodynamic stress response when compared to traditional awake extubation. PMID:27212749

  4. Bispectral index monitoring to facilitate early extubation following cardiovascular surgery.

    PubMed

    Anderson, Jennifer; Henry, Linda; Hunt, Sharon; Ad, Niv

    2010-01-01

    Frequently, intensive care nurses assume responsibility for extubating patients after undergoing cardiac surgery. Bispectral index (BIS) monitoring assesses level of mental arousal and awareness when sedated. This study was to determine if the BIS might facilitate earlier extubation of patients following cardiac surgery. A study was conducted comparing 25 stable patients returning to the intensive care unit with a BIS with 25 patients managed without the BIS (N = 50). Data collected included age, sex, surgery, pH, CO2, and temperature on arrival/extubation, total intravenous propofol and pain medication, and BIS scores. Student t tests determined that there were no differences between groups for age, amount of propofol and pain medication received, or time to extubation (P > .05). Regression analysis determined that total propofol, total hydromorphone, and age were significant predictors of time to extubation. In this study, the BIS monitor did not facilitate earlier extubation in the stable patient after cardiac surgery. PMID:20404622

  5. Application of Weibull Criterion to failure prediction in compsites

    SciTech Connect

    Cain, W. D.; Knight, Jr., C. E.

    1981-04-20

    Fiber-reinforced composite materials are being widely used in engineered structures. This report examines how the general form of the Weibull Criterion, including the evaluation of the parameters and the scaling of the parameter values, can be used for the prediction of component failure.

  6. Model-Biased, Data-Driven Adaptive Failure Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leen, Todd K.

    2004-01-01

    This final report, which contains a research summary and a viewgraph presentation, addresses clustering and data simulation techniques for failure prediction. The researchers applied their techniques to both helicopter gearbox anomaly detection and segmentation of Earth Observing System (EOS) satellite imagery.

  7. Anticipating the future: Automatic prediction failures in schizophrenia

    PubMed Central

    Ford, Judith M.; Mathalon, Daniel H.

    2011-01-01

    People with schizophrenia often misperceive sensations and misinterpret experiences, perhaps contributing to psychotic symptoms. These misperceptions and misinterpretations might result from an inability to make valid predictions about expected sensations and experiences. Healthy normal people take advantage of neural mechanisms that allow them to make predictions unconsciously, facilitating processing of expected sensations and distinguishing the expected from the unexpected. In this paper, we focus on two types of automatic, unconscious mechanisms that allow us to predict our perceptions. The first involves predictions made via innate mechanisms basic to all species in the animal kingdom—the efference copy and corollary discharge mechanisms. They accompany our voluntary movements and allow us to suppress sensations resulting from our actions. We study this during talking, and show that auditory cortical response to the speech sounds during talking is reduced compared to when they are played back. This suppression is reduced in schizophrenia, suggesting a failure to predict the sensations resulting from talking. The second mechanism involves implicitly learning what to expect from the current context of events. We study this by observing the brain's response to an unexpected repetition of an event, when a change would have been predicted. That patients have a reduced response suggests they failed to predict that it was time for a change. Both types of predictions should happen automatically and effortlessly, allowing for economic processing of expected events and orientation to unexpected ones. These prediction failures characterize the diagnosis of schizophrenia rather than reflecting specific symptoms. PMID:21959054

  8. Failure prediction of thin beryllium sheets used in spacecraft structures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Roschke, Paul N.; Mascorro, Edward; Papados, Photios; Serna, Oscar R.

    1991-01-01

    The primary objective of this study is to develop a method for prediction of failure of thin beryllium sheets that undergo complex states of stress. Major components of the research include experimental evaluation of strength parameters for cross-rolled beryllium sheet, application of the Tsai-Wu failure criterion to plate bending problems, development of a high order failure criterion, application of the new criterion to a variety of structures, and incorporation of both failure criteria into a finite element code. A Tsai-Wu failure model for SR-200 sheet material is developed from available tensile data, experiments carried out by NASA on two circular plates, and compression and off-axis experiments performed in this study. The failure surface obtained from the resulting criterion forms an ellipsoid. By supplementing experimental data used in the the two-dimensional criterion and modifying previously suggested failure criteria, a multi-dimensional failure surface is proposed for thin beryllium structures. The new criterion for orthotropic material is represented by a failure surface in six-dimensional stress space. In order to determine coefficients of the governing equation, a number of uniaxial, biaxial, and triaxial experiments are required. Details of these experiments and a complementary ultrasonic investigation are described in detail. Finally, validity of the criterion and newly determined mechanical properties is established through experiments on structures composed of SR200 sheet material. These experiments include a plate-plug arrangement under a complex state of stress and a series of plates with an out-of-plane central point load. Both criteria have been incorporated into a general purpose finite element analysis code. Numerical simulation incrementally applied loads to a structural component that is being designed and checks each nodal point in the model for exceedance of a failure criterion. If stresses at all locations do not exceed the failure

  9. Failure prediction of thin beryllium sheets used in spacecraft structures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Roschke, Paul N.; Papados, Photios; Mascorro, Edward

    1991-01-01

    In an attempt to predict failure for cross-rolled beryllium sheet structures, high order macroscopic failure criteria are used. These require the knowledge of in-plane uniaxial and shear strengths. Test results are included for in-plane biaxial tension, uniaxial compression for two different material orientations, and shear. All beryllium specimens have the same chemical composition. In addition, all experimental work was performed in a controlled laboratory environment. Numerical simulation complements these tests. A brief bibliography supplements references listed in a previous report.

  10. Comparison of Two Levels of Pressure Support Ventilation on Success of Extubation in Preterm Neonates: A Randomized Clinical Trial

    PubMed Central

    Farhadi, Roya; Lotfi, Hamid Reza; Alipour, Abbas; Nakhshab, Maryam; Ghaffari, Vajiheh; Hashemi, Seyyed Abbas

    2016-01-01

    Background: Pressure Support Ventilation (PSV) is one of the modes of mechanical ventilation that can be used alone as a weaning strategy in neonates. However, studies on the appropriate pressure level for this mode in neonates are limited. Objectives: Because the use of adequate pressure support in this mode, keeping the appropriate neonate’s tidal volume, and preventing the respiratory complications, this study was aimed to compare extubation failure in the two levels of pressure support ventilation of 10 and 14 cmH2O when removing the neonates from the ventilator. Materials & Methods: In this randomized clinical trial 50 premature infants of 27-37 weeks with respiratory distress syndrome (RDS) were under mechanical ventilation for at least 48 hours, were randomly assigned to two groups. One group was extubated in PSV mode with pressure of 14 cmH2O and the other with 10 cmH2O. Extubation failure rate and complications such as pneumothorax, death and respiratory parameters were compared in the two groups. Results: Twenty five neonates in each group were assessed. Weaning time, extubation failure rate, and mean airway pressure was lesser in PSV of 10 cmH20 group than Level of 14 cmH2O and those differences were statistically significant (P<0.05). Difference between work of breathing, ventilation time, pneumothorax and mortality rate between two groups were not statistically significant (P>0.05). Conclusion: The results of our study show that extubation of the neonates using 10 CmH2O in PSV mode increases the success rate of extubation. Although when Volume- assured PSV can be used, it is more logical to use it for guaranteeing tidal volume, but using the appropriate level of pressure support when the PSV mode is used alone is inevitable and further studies are necessary to demonstrate the level of pressure in this mode. PMID:26383214

  11. Empirical sediment transport function predicting seepage erosion undercutting for cohesive bank failure prediction

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Seepage erosion is an important factor in hillslope instability and failure. However, predicting erosion by subsurface flow or seepage and incorporating its effects into stability models remains a challenge. Limitations exist with all existing seepage erosion sediment transport functions, including ...

  12. Product component genealogy modeling and field-failure prediction

    DOE PAGESBeta

    King, Caleb; Hong, Yili; Meeker, William Q.

    2016-04-13

    Many industrial products consist of multiple components that are necessary for system operation. There is an abundance of literature on modeling the lifetime of such components through competing risks models. During the life-cycle of a product, it is common for there to be incremental design changes to improve reliability, to reduce costs, or due to changes in availability of certain part numbers. These changes can affect product reliability but are often ignored in system lifetime modeling. By incorporating this information about changes in part numbers over time (information that is readily available in most production databases), better accuracy can bemore » achieved in predicting time to failure, thus yielding more accurate field-failure predictions. This paper presents methods for estimating parameters and predictions for this generational model and a comparison with existing methods through the use of simulation. Our results indicate that the generational model has important practical advantages and outperforms the existing methods in predicting field failures.« less

  13. Progressive Failure And Life Prediction of Ceramic and Textile Composites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Xue, David Y.; Shi, Yucheng; Katikala, Madhu; Johnston, William M., Jr.; Card, Michael F.

    1998-01-01

    An engineering approach to predict the fatigue life and progressive failure of multilayered composite and textile laminates is presented. Analytical models which account for matrix cracking, statistical fiber failures and nonlinear stress-strain behavior have been developed for both composites and textiles. The analysis method is based on a combined micromechanics, fracture mechanics and failure statistics analysis. Experimentally derived empirical coefficients are used to account for the interface of fiber and matrix, fiber strength, and fiber-matrix stiffness reductions. Similar approaches were applied to textiles using Repeating Unit Cells. In composite fatigue analysis, Walker's equation is applied for matrix fatigue cracking and Heywood's formulation is used for fiber strength fatigue degradation. The analysis has been compared with experiment with good agreement. Comparisons were made with Graphite-Epoxy, C/SiC and Nicalon/CAS composite materials. For textile materials, comparisons were made with triaxial braided and plain weave materials under biaxial or uniaxial tension. Fatigue predictions were compared with test data obtained from plain weave C/SiC materials tested at AS&M. Computer codes were developed to perform the analysis. Composite Progressive Failure Analysis for Laminates is contained in the code CPFail. Micromechanics Analysis for Textile Composites is contained in the code MicroTex. Both codes were adapted to run as subroutines for the finite element code ABAQUS and CPFail-ABAQUS and MicroTex-ABAQUS. Graphic user interface (GUI) was developed to connect CPFail and MicroTex with ABAQUS.

  14. Relational Neural Evolution Approach to Bank Failure Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abudu, Bolanle; Markose, Sheri

    2007-12-01

    Relational neural networks as a concept offers a unique opportunity for improving classification accuracy by exploiting relational structure in data. The premise is that a relational classification technique, which uses information implicit in relationships, should classify more accurately than techniques that only examine objects in isolation. In this paper, we study the use of relational neural networks for predicting bank failure. Alongside classical financial ratios normally used as predictor variables, we introduced new relational variables for the network. The relational neural network structure, specified as a combination of feed forward and recurrent neural networks, is determined by bank data through neuro-evolution. We discuss empirical results comparing performance of the relational approach to standard propositional methods used for bank failure prediction.

  15. On predicting and modeling material failure under impact loading

    SciTech Connect

    Lewis, M.W.

    1998-09-01

    A method for predicting and modeling material failure in solids subjected to impact loading is outlined. The method uses classical void growth models of Gurson and Tvergaard in a material point method (MPM). Because of material softening, material stability is lost. At this point, the character of the governing partial differential equations changes, and localization occurs. This localization results in mesh dependence for many problems of interest. For many problems, predicting the occurrence of material failure and its extent is necessary. To enable this modeling, it is proposed that a discontinuity be introduced into the displacement field. By including a dissipation-based force-displacement relationship, the mesh dependence of energy dissipation can be avoided. Additionally, the material point method provides a means of allowing large deformations without mesh distortion or introduction of error through remapping.

  16. Failure Prediction in Fine Blanking Process with Stress Limit Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tong, Longchang; Manopulo, Niko; Hora, Pavel

    2010-06-01

    Extremely small blanking clearance and nearly sharp edges of blanking tool are the characteristics of fine blanking that produces near net shape parts. The extreme forming conditions make the failure prediction for fine blanking more difficult than for ordinary forming processes. Stress Limit Criterion (SLC) is adopted in this work to perform the failure prediction of 3D fine blanking process. In comparison with the stress triaxiality diagram, SLC is not sensitively affected by complex nonlinear deformation paths and can perform the task as well. However, the parameters that support the model have to be obtained with combination of dedicatedly designed experiments and numerical simulation. The FEM simulation must also be able to provide stable and reliable results.

  17. Relational Neural Evolution Approach to Bank Failure Prediction

    SciTech Connect

    Abudu, Bolanle; Markose, Sheri

    2007-12-26

    Relational neural networks as a concept offers a unique opportunity for improving classification accuracy by exploiting relational structure in data. The premise is that a relational classification technique, which uses information implicit in relationships, should classify more accurately than techniques that only examine objects in isolation. In this paper, we study the use of relational neural networks for predicting bank failure. Alongside classical financial ratios normally used as predictor variables, we introduced new relational variables for the network. The relational neural network structure, specified as a combination of feed forward and recurrent neural networks, is determined by bank data through neuro-evolution. We discuss empirical results comparing performance of the relational approach to standard propositional methods used for bank failure prediction.

  18. What is the optimal rate of failed extubation?

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Failed extubation (FE), defined as reintubation 48 or 72 hours after planned extubation, occurs in a significant percentage of patients and is associated with a substantial burden of morbidity and mortality. This commentary reviews the literature describing FE rates and the clinical consequences of FE and proposes an 'optimal' rate of FE as well as avenues for future research. PMID:22356725

  19. Prediction of long-term failure in Kevlar 49 composites

    SciTech Connect

    Gerstle, F.P. Jr.

    1982-01-01

    Creep rupture data in Kevlar 49 epoxy usually exhibit considerable scatter: the coefficient of variation (CV) about the mean failure time at a given stress exceeds 100%. Quasi-static strength data, in contrast, shows little scatter: <4% CV for pressure vessels and <10% for impregnated strands. In this paper analysis of existing creep rupture data on Kevlar epoxy vessels at four storage pressures has produced an interesting and useful result. It was found that a significant portion of the scatter in failure times for pressure vessels is due to spool-to-spool variation in the eight spools of Kevlar fibers used to wind the vessels. The order rank of mean times to failure was consistent over a pressure range from 3400 to 4300 psi, 68 to 86% of short term burst. Also, the coefficient of variation about the mean failure time for each spool was less than that for the total sample. The statistical inference that the sample is nonhomogeneous was supported by a nonparametric check using the Kruskal-Wallis test, and by a parametric analysis of variance. The order rank found in long-term tests did not unequivocally agree with static strength ranks; several spool sets were distinctly high or low. The implication is that, while static strengths are not valid predictors of long-term behavior, short term creep rupture tests at high stress definitely are. The material difference which causes the spool-to-spool variations has not yet been identified for all eight spools. However, it appears that Kevlar behavior at lower pressures may be predicted through the use of curves fitted to the data for each spool. A power law relating failure time to pressure, t = t/sub 0/(p/p/sub 0/)/sup m/, was found to fit the data reasonably well. The implication is that, both in composite vessel design and in creep rupture experiments, the pressure (or stress) level be carefully controlled.

  20. Brittle failure prediction of ceramics using a multiscale approach

    SciTech Connect

    Berdin, C.; Cailletaud, G.; Jeulin, D.

    1996-11-01

    Brittle failure is classically modeled by the Weibull distribution, based on a phenomenological approach. The procedure fails if the distribution of the failure-initiating defects varies within material batches and may lead to a wrong conclusion about the predictive power of the model. The purpose of this paper is to highlight this problem, which can occur with brittle materials such as ceramics. This study, based on the results of tensile and bending tests made on silicon nitride specimens, consists of three steps: (i) micrographic and fractographic studies are performed to determine the defect-size density in each type of specimen and the mechanical behavior of the defects, (ii) the classical modeling with a Weibull distribution is shown to fail to predict the results, and (iii) a new approach for the identification of a fracture model is developed, based on step (i). The fracture prediction is computed from the actual defect-size distribution in each material batch, so that the procedure can be adapted to changes in the defect-size distribution caused by the manufacturing process.

  1. Recipient Criteria Predictive of Graft Failure in Kidney Transplantation.

    PubMed

    Molmenti, Ernesto P; Alex, Asha; Rosen, Lisa; Alexander, Mohini; Nicastro, Jeffrey; Yang, Jingyan; Siskind, Eric; Alex, Leesha; Sameyah, Emil; Bhaskaran, Madhu; Ali, Nicole; Basu, Amit; Sachdeva, Mala; Agorastos, Stergiani; Rajendran, Prejith; Krishnan, Prathik; Ramadas, Poornima; Amodu, Leo; Cagliani, Joaquin; Rehman, Sameer; Kressel, Adam; Sethna, Christine B; Sotiropoulos, Georgios C; Radtke, Arnold; Sgourakis, George; Schwarz, Richard; Fishbane, Steven; Bellucci, Alessandro; Coppa, Gene; Rilo, Horacio; Molmenti, Christine L

    2016-03-01

    Several classifications systems have been developed to predict outcomes of kidney transplantation based on donor variables. This study aims to identify kidney transplant recipient variables that would predict graft outcome irrespective of donor characteristics. All U.S. kidney transplant recipients between October 25,1999 and January 1, 2007 were reviewed. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to model time until graft failure. Death-censored and nondeath-censored graft survival models were generated for recipients of live and deceased donor organs. Recipient age, gender, body mass index (BMI), presence of cardiac risk factors, peripheral vascular disease, pulmonary disease, diabetes, cerebrovascular disease, history of malignancy, hepatitis B core antibody, hepatitis C infection, dialysis status, panel-reactive antibodies (PRA), geographic region, educational level, and prior kidney transplant were evaluated in all kidney transplant recipients. Among the 88,284 adult transplant recipients the following groups had increased risk of graft failure: younger and older recipients, increasing PRA (hazard ratio [HR],1.03-1.06], increasing BMI (HR, 1.04-1.62), previous kidney transplant (HR, 1.17-1.26), dialysis at the time of transplantation (HR, 1.39-1.51), hepatitis C infection (HR, 1.41-1.63), and educational level (HR, 1.05-1.42). Predictive criteria based on recipient characteristics could guide organ allocation, risk stratification, and patient expectations in planning kidney transplantation. PMID:26900309

  2. Wavelet-based signal analysis for heart failure hospitalization prediction.

    PubMed

    Iakovidis, Dimitris K; Douska, Dimitra; Barba, Evaggelia; Koulaouzidis, George

    2016-01-01

    Heart failure (HF) is commonly a chronic condition associated with frequent hospital admissions. Early knowledge about a possible deterioration of this condition would enable early treatment for the prevention of adverse events and related hospital admissions. In this paper we present a computational method for predictive information extraction from daily physiological signals, which can be obtained by a telemonitoring system with wearable sensors. It is based on wavelet analysis of temporal signal patterns. Experiments with data from patients enrolled in a telemonitoring protocol show that the proposed method is capable of predicting HF hospitalization events one day before they happen, even in the case of low compliance to the protocol. These results indicate a promising perspective towards a monitoring system that would provide improved life quality for HF patients. PMID:27225548

  3. A multichannel model-based methodology for extubation readiness decision of patients on weaning trials.

    PubMed

    Casaseca-de-la-Higuera, Pablo; Simmross-Wattenberg, Federico; Martín-Fernández, Marcos; Alberola-López, Carlos

    2009-07-01

    Discontinuation of mechanical ventilation is a challenging task that involves a number of subtle clinical issues. The gradual removal of the respiratory support (referred to as weaning) should be performed as soon as autonomous respiration can be sustained. However, the prediction rate of successful extubation is still below 25% based on previous studies. Construction of an automatic system that provides information on extubation readiness is thus desirable. Recent works have demonstrated that the breathing pattern variability is a useful extubation readiness indicator, with improving performance when multiple respiratory signals are jointly processed. However, the existing methods for predictor extraction present several drawbacks when length-limited time series are to be processed in heterogeneous groups of patients. In this paper, we propose a model-based methodology for automatic readiness prediction. It is intended to deal with multichannel, nonstationary, short records of the breathing pattern. Results on experimental data yield an 87.27% of successful readiness prediction, which is in line with the best figures reported in the literature. A comparative analysis shows that our methodology overcomes the shortcomings of so far proposed methods when applied to length-limited records on heterogeneous groups of patients. PMID:19362908

  4. Rational temporal predictions can underlie apparent failures to delay gratification.

    PubMed

    McGuire, Joseph T; Kable, Joseph W

    2013-04-01

    An important category of seemingly maladaptive decisions involves failure to postpone gratification. A person pursuing a desirable long-run outcome may abandon it in favor of a short-run alternative that has been available all along. Here we present a theoretical framework in which this seemingly irrational behavior emerges from stable preferences and veridical judgments. Our account recognizes that decision makers generally face uncertainty regarding the time at which future outcomes will materialize. When timing is uncertain, the value of persistence depends crucially on the nature of a decision maker's prior temporal beliefs. Certain forms of temporal beliefs imply that a delay's predicted remaining length increases as a function of time already waited. In this type of situation, the rational, utility-maximizing strategy is to persist for a limited amount of time and then give up. We show empirically that people's explicit predictions of remaining delay lengths indeed increase as a function of elapsed time in several relevant domains, implying that temporal judgments offer a rational basis for limiting persistence. We then develop our framework into a simple working model and show how it accounts for individual differences in a laboratory task (the well-known "marshmallow test"). We conclude that delay-of-gratification failure, generally viewed as a manifestation of limited self-control capacity, can instead arise as an adaptive response to the perceived statistics of one's environment. PMID:23458085

  5. Rational temporal predictions can underlie apparent failures to delay gratification

    PubMed Central

    McGuire, Joseph T.; Kable, Joseph W.

    2013-01-01

    An important category of seemingly maladaptive decisions involves failure to postpone gratification. A person pursuing a desirable long-run outcome may abandon it in favor of a short-run alternative that has been available all along. Here we present a theoretical framework in which this seemingly irrational behavior emerges from stable preferences and veridical judgments. Our account recognizes that decision makers generally face uncertainty regarding the time at which future outcomes will materialize. When timing is uncertain, the value of persistence depends crucially on the nature of a decision-maker’s prior temporal beliefs. Certain forms of temporal beliefs imply that a delay’s predicted remaining length increases as a function of time already waited. In this type of situation, the rational, utility-maximizing strategy is to persist for a limited amount of time and then give up. We show empirically that people’s explicit predictions of remaining delay lengths indeed increase as a function of elapsed time in several relevant domains, implying that temporal judgments offer a rational basis for limiting persistence. We then develop our framework into a simple working model and show how it accounts for individual differences in a laboratory task (the well-known “marshmallow test”). We conclude that delay-of-gratification failure, generally viewed as a manifestation of limited self-control capacity, can instead arise as an adaptive response to the perceived statistics of one’s environment. PMID:23458085

  6. A numerical procedure for predicting creep and delayed failures in laminated composites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dillard, D. A.; Brinson, H. F.

    1983-01-01

    A numerical procedure is described for predicting the viscoelastic response of general laminates. A nonlinear compliance model is used to predict the creep response of the individual laminae. A biaxial delayed failure model predicts ply failure. The numerical procedure, based on lamination theory, increases by increments through time to predict creep compliance and delayed failures in laminates. Numerical stability problems and experimental verification are discussed. Although the program has been quite successful in predicting creep of general laminates, the assumptions associated with lamination theory have resulted in erroneous bounds on the predicted material response. Delayed failure predictions have been conservative. Several improvements are suggested to increase the accuracy of the procedure.

  7. The effect of coughing at extubation on oxygenation in the post-anaesthesia care unit.

    PubMed

    Lumb, A B; Bradshaw, K; Gamlin, F M C; Heard, J

    2015-04-01

    We prospectively studied 84 patients to investigate whether there is a relationship between coughing during emergence and tracheal extubation, and impaired oxygenation in the post-anaesthesia care unit. Our primary outcome measure was a change in the alveolar-arterial oxygen partial pressure gradient ((A-a)DO2 ) between time A (during general anaesthesia) and time B (1 h after extubation). Patients demonstrated a worsening of oxygenation with mean (SD) (A-a)DO2 increasing from 7.5 (5.2) kPa at time A to 13.9 (4.2) kPa at time B (p < 0.01). An overall linear regression model was not predictive for the observed change (adjusted R(2) = 0.01, p = 0.31) and nor were any of the individual predictors studied, including subjective cough score (p = 0.33), number of coughs (p = 0.95) and duration of coughing (p = 0.39). Despite the abnormal cough that occurs while tracheally intubated, we have been unable to demonstrate that coughing at extubation is associated with impaired oxygenation in the immediate postoperative period. PMID:25376328

  8. Predictive modelling of fatigue failure in concentrated lubricated contacts.

    PubMed

    Evans, H P; Snidle, R W; Sharif, K J; Bryant, M J

    2012-01-01

    Reducing frictional losses in response to the energy agenda will require use of less viscous lubricants causing hydrodynamically-lubricated bearings to operate with thinner films leading to "mixed lubrication" conditions in which a degree of direct interaction occurs between surfaces protected only by boundary tribofilms. The paper considers the consequences of thinner films and mixed lubrication for concentrated contacts such as those occurring between the teeth of power transmission gears and in rolling element bearings. Surface fatigue in gears remains a serious problem in demanding applications, and its solution will become more pressing with the tendency towards thinner oils. The particular form of failure examined here is micropitting, which is identified as a fatigue phenomenon occurring at the scale of the surface roughness asperities. It has emerged recently as a systemic difficulty in the operation of large scale wind turbines where it occurs in both power transmission gears and their support bearings. Predictive physical modelling of these contacts requires a transient mixed lubrication analysis for conditions in which the predicted lubricant film thickness is of the same order or significantly less than the height of surface roughness features. Numerical solvers have therefore been developed which are able to deal with situations in which transient solid contacts occur between surface asperity features under realistic engineering conditions. Results of the analysis, which reveal the detailed time-varying behaviour of pressure and film clearance, have been used to predict fatigue and damage accumulation at the scale of surface asperity features with the aim of improving understanding of the micropitting phenomenon. The possible consequences on fatigue of residual stress fields resulting from plastic deformation of surface asperities is also considered. PMID:23285624

  9. Flood Water Level Mapping and Prediction Due to Dam Failures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Musa, S.; Adnan, M. S.; Ahmad, N. A.; Ayob, S.

    2016-07-01

    Sembrong dam has undergone overflow failure. Flooding has been reported to hit the town, covering an area of up to Parit Raja, located in the district of Batu Pahat. This study aims to identify the areas that will be affected by flood in the event of a dam failure in Sembrong Dam, Kluang, Johor at a maximum level. To grasp the extent, the flood inundation maps have been generated by using the InfoWorks ICM and GIS software. By using these maps, information such as the depth and extent of floods can be identified the main ares flooded. The flood map was created starting with the collection of relevant data such as measuring the depth of the river and a maximum flow rate for Sembrong Dam. The data were obtained from the Drainage and Irrigation Department Malaysia and the Department of Survey and Mapping and HLA Associates Sdn. Bhd. Then, the data were analyzed according to the established Info Works ICM method. The results found that the flooded area were listed at Sri Lalang, Parit Sagil, Parit Sonto, Sri Paya, Parit Raja, Parit Sempadan, Talang Bunut, Asam Bubok, Tanjung Sembrong, Sungai Rambut and Parit Haji Talib. Flood depth obtained for the related area started from 0.5 m up to 1.2 m. As a conclusion, the flood emanating from this study include the area around the town of Ayer Hitam up to Parit Raja approximately of more than 20 km distance. This may give bad implication to residents around these areas. In future studies, other rivers such as Sungai Batu Pahat should be considered for this study to predict and reduce the yearly flood victims for this area.

  10. Self‐Rated Health Predicts Healthcare Utilization in Heart Failure

    PubMed Central

    Chamberlain, Alanna M.; Manemann, Sheila M.; Dunlay, Shannon M.; Spertus, John A.; Moser, Debra K.; Berardi, Cecilia; Kane, Robert L.; Weston, Susan A.; Redfield, Margaret M.; Roger, Véronique L.

    2014-01-01

    Background Heart failure (HF) patients experience impaired functional status, diminished quality of life, high utilization of healthcare resources, and poor survival. Yet, the identification of patient‐centered factors that influence prognosis is lacking. Methods and Results We determined the association of 2 measures of self‐rated health with healthcare utilization and skilled nursing facility (SNF) admission in a community cohort of 417 HF patients prospectively enrolled between October 2007 and December 2010 from Olmsted County, MN. Patients completed a 12‐item Short Form Health Survey (SF‐12). Low self‐reported physical functioning was defined as a score ≤25 on the SF‐12 physical component. The first question of the SF‐12 was used as a measure of self‐rated general health. After 2 years, 1033 hospitalizations, 1407 emergency department (ED) visits, and 19,780 outpatient office visits were observed; 87 patients were admitted to a SNF. After adjustment for confounding factors, an increased risk of hospitalizations (1.52 [1.17 to 1.99]) and ED visits (1.48 [1.04 to 2.11]) was observed for those with low versus moderate‐high self‐reported physical functioning. Patients with poor and fair self‐rated general health also experienced an increased risk of hospitalizations (poor: 1.73 [1.29 to 2.32]; fair: 1.46 [1.14 to 1.87]) and ED visits (poor: 1.73 [1.16 to 2.56]; fair: 1.48 [1.13 to 1.93]) compared with good‐excellent self‐rated general health. No association between self‐reported physical functioning or self‐rated general health with outpatient visits and SNF admission was observed. Conclusion In community HF patients, self‐reported measures of physical functioning predict hospitalizations and ED visits, indicating that these patient‐reported measures may be useful in risk stratification and management in HF. PMID:24870937

  11. Predicting failure: acoustic emission of berlinite under compression.

    PubMed

    Nataf, Guillaume F; Castillo-Villa, Pedro O; Sellappan, Pathikumar; Kriven, Waltraud M; Vives, Eduard; Planes, Antoni; Salje, Ekhard K H

    2014-07-01

    Acoustic emission has been measured and statistical characteristics analyzed during the stress-induced collapse of porous berlinite, AlPO4, containing up to 50 vol% porosity. Stress collapse occurs in a series of individual events (avalanches), and each avalanche leads to a jerk in sample compression with corresponding acoustic emission (AE) signals. The distribution of AE avalanche energies can be approximately described by a power law p(E)dE = E(-ε)dE (ε ~ 1.8) over a large stress interval. We observed several collapse mechanisms whereby less porous minerals show the superposition of independent jerks, which were not related to the major collapse at the failure stress. In highly porous berlinite (40% and 50%) an increase of energy emission occurred near the failure point. In contrast, the less porous samples did not show such an increase in energy emission. Instead, in the near vicinity of the main failure point they showed a reduction in the energy exponent to ~ 1.4, which is consistent with the value reported for compressed porous systems displaying critical behavior. This suggests that a critical avalanche regime with a lack of precursor events occurs. In this case, all preceding large events were 'false alarms' and unrelated to the main failure event. Our results identify a method to use pico-seismicity detection of foreshocks to warn of mine collapse before the main failure (the collapse) occurs, which can be applied to highly porous materials only. PMID:24919038

  12. Gender Bias in Predictions of Boys' Academic Failure

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Van Duzer, Eric

    2006-01-01

    A study was conducted to examine the gendered expectations of academic failure among 52 students preparing to enter a teacher-credentialing program at a California state university. As part of a technology class, student pairs completed a database and mail-merge assignment in which they named three imaginary students and identified one of the…

  13. Rational Temporal Predictions Can Underlie Apparent Failures to Delay Gratification

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McGuire, Joseph T.; Kable, Joseph W.

    2013-01-01

    An important category of seemingly maladaptive decisions involves failure to postpone gratification. A person pursuing a desirable long-run outcome may abandon it in favor of a short-run alternative that has been available all along. Here we present a theoretical framework in which this seemingly irrational behavior emerges from stable preferences…

  14. Experiences of patients with abnormal extubation of PICC tubes: a qualitative study

    PubMed Central

    Gao, Wei; Luan, Xiao-Rong; Sun, Yuan-Yuan; Zhang, Ming; Li, Kan; Li, Qiu-Huan; Zhang, Hong; Liu, De-Shan

    2015-01-01

    Objective: To explore the experiences of patients with abnormal extubation of PICC tubes. Methods: Using phenomenological research methods, 15 cases of patients with abnormal extubation of PICC tubes were enrolled in semi-structured interviews. Data were analyzed by Nancy’s phenomenological procedure. Results: After abnormal extubation, patients exhibited conflicting complicated mood which combined negative experience and positive experience. Negative experience was mainly for complaint, helpless, worry and fear. Positive experience was mainly for relief and peace of mind. Conclusions: Patients with abnormal extubation often possessed negative experience. So nursing staff should be suggested to communicate with patients before extubation in order to reduce the dispute between nurses and patients. At the same time, we should summarize and analyze the reasons and factors for abnormal extubation, and take targeted intervention measures in clinical to ensure the safety and effectiveness of PICC extubation. PMID:26770567

  15. Effect of various approximations on predicted progressive failure in plain weave composites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Whitcomb, John; Srirengan, Kanthikannan

    1995-01-01

    Three-dimensional finite element analysis was used to simulate progressive failure of a plain weave composite subjected to in-plane extension. The loading was parallel to one of the tow directions. The effects of various characteristics of the finite element model on predicted behavior were examined. The predicted behavior was found to be sensitive to quadrature order, mesh refinement, and the material degradation model. Also the sensitivity of the predictions to the tow waviness was studied. The predicted strength decreased considerably with increased waviness. More numerical studies and comparisons with experimental data are needed to establish reliable guidelines for accurate progressive failure prediction.

  16. Predicting Time Series Outputs and Time-to-Failure for an Aircraft Controller Using Bayesian Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    He, Yuning

    2015-01-01

    Safety of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) is paramount, but the large number of dynamically changing controller parameters makes it hard to determine if the system is currently stable, and the time before loss of control if not. We propose a hierarchical statistical model using Treed Gaussian Processes to predict (i) whether a flight will be stable (success) or become unstable (failure), (ii) the time-to-failure if unstable, and (iii) time series outputs for flight variables. We first classify the current flight input into success or failure types, and then use separate models for each class to predict the time-to-failure and time series outputs. As different inputs may cause failures at different times, we have to model variable length output curves. We use a basis representation for curves and learn the mappings from input to basis coefficients. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our prediction methods on a NASA neuro-adaptive flight control system.

  17. Patient Characteristics Predicting Readmission Among Individuals Hospitalized for Heart Failure

    PubMed Central

    O'Connor, Melissa; Murtaugh, Christopher M.; Shah, Shivani; Barrón-Vaya, Yolanda; Bowles, Kathryn H.; Peng, Timothy R.; Zhu, Carolyn W.; Feldman, Penny H.

    2015-01-01

    Heart failure is difficult to manage and increasingly common with many individuals experiencing frequent hospitalizations. Little is known about patient factors consistently associated with hospital readmission. A literature review was conducted to identify heart failure patient characteristics, measured before discharge, that contribute to variation in hospital readmission rates. Database searches yielded 950 potential articles, of which 34 studies met inclusion criteria. Patient characteristics generally have a very modest effect on all-cause or heart failure–related readmission within 7 to 180 days of index hospital discharge. A range of cardiac diseases and other comorbidities only minimally increase readmission rates. No single patient characteristic stands out as a key contributor across multiple studies underscoring the challenge of developing successful interventions to reduce readmissions. Interventions may need to be general in design with the specific intervention depending on each patient's unique clinical profile. PMID:26180045

  18. Method of Testing and Predicting Failures of Electronic Mechanical Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Iverson, David L.; Patterson-Hine, Frances A.

    1996-01-01

    A method employing a knowledge base of human expertise comprising a reliability model analysis implemented for diagnostic routines is disclosed. The reliability analysis comprises digraph models that determine target events created by hardware failures human actions, and other factors affecting the system operation. The reliability analysis contains a wealth of human expertise information that is used to build automatic diagnostic routines and which provides a knowledge base that can be used to solve other artificial intelligence problems.

  19. Real-time forecasting and predictability of catastrophic failure events: from rock failure to volcanoes and earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Main, I. G.; Bell, A. F.; Naylor, M.; Atkinson, M.; Filguera, R.; Meredith, P. G.; Brantut, N.

    2012-12-01

    Accurate prediction of catastrophic brittle failure in rocks and in the Earth presents a significant challenge on theoretical and practical grounds. The governing equations are not known precisely, but are known to produce highly non-linear behavior similar to those of near-critical dynamical systems, with a large and irreducible stochastic component due to material heterogeneity. In a laboratory setting mechanical, hydraulic and rock physical properties are known to change in systematic ways prior to catastrophic failure, often with significant non-Gaussian fluctuations about the mean signal at a given time, for example in the rate of remotely-sensed acoustic emissions. The effectiveness of such signals in real-time forecasting has never been tested before in a controlled laboratory setting, and previous work has often been qualitative in nature, and subject to retrospective selection bias, though it has often been invoked as a basis in forecasting natural hazard events such as volcanoes and earthquakes. Here we describe a collaborative experiment in real-time data assimilation to explore the limits of predictability of rock failure in a best-case scenario. Data are streamed from a remote rock deformation laboratory to a user-friendly portal, where several proposed physical/stochastic models can be analysed in parallel in real time, using a variety of statistical fitting techniques, including least squares regression, maximum likelihood fitting, Markov-chain Monte-Carlo and Bayesian analysis. The results are posted and regularly updated on the web site prior to catastrophic failure, to ensure a true and and verifiable prospective test of forecasting power. Preliminary tests on synthetic data with known non-Gaussian statistics shows how forecasting power is likely to evolve in the live experiments. In general the predicted failure time does converge on the real failure time, illustrating the bias associated with the 'benefit of hindsight' in retrospective analyses

  20. Multiscale Model Predicts Tissue-Level Failure From Collagen Fiber-Level Damage

    PubMed Central

    Hadi, Mohammad F.; Sander, Edward A.; Barocas, Victor H.

    2013-01-01

    Excessive tissue-level forces communicated to the microstructure and extracellular matrix of soft tissues can lead to damage and failure through poorly understood physical processes that are multiscale in nature. In this work, we propose a multiscale mechanical model for the failure of collagenous soft tissues that incorporates spatial heterogeneity in the microstructure and links the failure of discrete collagen fibers to the material response of the tissue. The model, which is based on experimental failure data derived from different collagen gel geometries, was able to predict the mechanical response and failure of type I collagen gels, and it demonstrated that a fiber-based rule (at the micrometer scale) for discrete failure can strongly shape the macroscale failure response of the gel (at the millimeter scale). The model may be a useful tool in predicting the macroscale failure conditions for soft tissues and engineered tissue analogs. In addition, the multiscale model provides a framework for the study of failure in complex fiber-based mechanical systems in general. PMID:22938372

  1. Peridynamics for failure and residual strength prediction of fiber-reinforced composites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Colavito, Kyle

    Peridynamics is a reformulation of classical continuum mechanics that utilizes integral equations in place of partial differential equations to remove the difficulty in handling discontinuities, such as cracks or interfaces, within a body. Damage is included within the constitutive model; initiation and propagation can occur without resorting to special crack growth criteria necessary in other commonly utilized approaches. Predicting damage and residual strengths of composite materials involves capturing complex, distinct and progressive failure modes. The peridynamic laminate theory correctly predicts the load redistribution in general laminate layups in the presence of complex failure modes through the use of multiple interaction types. This study presents two approaches to obtain the critical peridynamic failure parameters necessary to capture the residual strength of a composite structure. The validity of both approaches is first demonstrated by considering the residual strength of isotropic materials. The peridynamic theory is used to predict the crack growth and final failure load in both a diagonally loaded square plate with a center crack, as well as a four-point shear specimen subjected to asymmetric loading. This study also establishes the validity of each approach by considering composite laminate specimens in which each failure mode is isolated. Finally, the failure loads and final failure modes are predicted in a laminate with various hole diameters subjected to tensile and compressive loads.

  2. Young Children's Predictions of Illness: Failure To Recognize Probabilistic Causation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kalish, Charles W.

    1998-01-01

    Three experiments examined whether preschoolers viewed outcomes of familiar causes of illness as definite or probabilistic. Findings indicated that children judged that a common cause would affect all group members the same, and believed they could definitely predict illness outcomes in a single case, contrasting with adults' variable and…

  3. Role of dexmedetomidine in early extubation of the intensive care unit patients

    PubMed Central

    Gupta, Shikha; Singh, Dupinder; Sood, Dinesh; Kathuria, Suneet

    2015-01-01

    Background and Aims: Patients on ventilatory support in intensive care unit (ICU) require sedation and analgesia to facilitate mechanical ventilation and endotracheal tube tolerance. The selection of the agent should be such that it does not interfere with the early extubation of the patients. We compared the efficacy of dexmedetomidine with midazolam to facilitate extubation of patients from mechanical ventilation in terms of the sedative properties, cardiovascular responses, ventilation, and extubation characteristics and safety profile. Materials and Methods: A total of 40 adult, mechanically ventilated patients of either sex, aged 18-60 years, meeting the standard criteria for weaning, randomized into 2 groups of 20 patients each, received intravenous infusion of dexmedetomidine (0.2-0.7 mcg/kg/h) or midazolam (0.04-0.2 mg/kg/h) as needed for Ramsay sedation scale 2-4. Extubation following standard extubation protocol was done. Time for extubation and vital parameters were regularly recorded. Results: The time to extubation in the dexmedetomidine group was significantly lower than in the midazolam group. Heart rate and blood pressure was significantly lower in dexmedetomidine group than the midazolam group at most of the times. Conclusions: Dexmedetomidine has clinically relevant benefits compared with midazolam in facilitating extubation due to its shorter time to extubation, more hemodynamic stability, easy arousability, and lack of respiratory depression. PMID:25788780

  4. A New Method for Extubation: Comparison between Conventional and New Methods

    PubMed Central

    Yousefshahi, Fardin; Barkhordari, Khosro; Movafegh, Ali; Tavakoli, Vida; Paknejad, Omalbanin; Bina, Payvand; Yousefshahi, Hadi; Sheikh Fathollahi, Mahmood

    2012-01-01

    Background: Extubation is associated with the risk of complications such as accumulated secretion above the endotracheal tube cuff, eventual atelectasia following a reduction in pulmonary volumes because of a lack of physiological positive end expiratory pressure, and intra-tracheal suction. In order to reduce these complications, and, based on basic physiological principles, a new practical extubation method is presented in this article. Methods: The study was designed as a six-month prospective cross-sectional clinical trial. Two hundred fifty-seven patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) were divided into two groups based on their scheduled surgery time. The first group underwent the conventional extubation method, while the other group was extubated according to a new described method. Arterial blood gas (ABG) analysis results before and after extubation were compared between the two groups to find the effect of the extubation method on the ABG parameters and the oxygenation profile. Results: In all time intervals, the partial pressure of oxygen in arterial blood / fraction of inspired oxygen (PaO2/FiO2) ratio in the new method group patients was improved compared to that in the conventional method; some differences, like PaO2/FiO2 four hours after extubation, were statistically significant, however (p value=0.0063). Conclusion: The new extubation method improved some respiratory parameters and thus attenuated oxygenation complications and amplified oxygenation after extubation. PMID:23304181

  5. A new method for failure prediction of SR-200 beryllium sheet structures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Papados, P. P.; Roschke, P. N.

    1994-01-01

    Contemporary applications of failure criteria frequently incorporate two-dimensional or simplified three-dimensional methodologies for prediction of stresses. Motivation behind the development of a new multi-dimensional failure criterion is due mainly to the lack of a sufficiently accurate mathematical tool that accounts for the behavior of brittle material with anisotropic properties. Such a criterion should be able to provide a reliable maximum load estimate so that design of the structure is not penalized in terms of excessive weight requirements. The failure criterion developed is represented by a fracture surface in a six-dimensional stress space. The criterion is applied for failure prediction of SR-200 beryllium sheet structures, a non-homogeneous orthotropic material used widely in space applications. Two experiments are used to verify the criterion.

  6. Predicting the Failure Behavior of Textile Composite Laminates by Using a Multi-Scale Correlating Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deng, Yan; Chen, Xiuhua; Wang, Hai

    2015-12-01

    This paper investigates the elastic and failure behavior of textile composite laminates by using an analytical multi-scale correlating approach. The analyses are performed under the four scale levels, i.e. the laminate scale, representative unit cell (RUC) scale, tow architecture scale and fiber/matrix scale levels. The correlation between different scales is derived based on the continuum mechanics and homogenization method from which the stress and strain fields in multiple scales can be obtained concurrently. Effective modulus and ultimate failure strengths of different textile composite (plain weave, twill weave and satin weave) laminates are predicted solely from the corresponding constituent properties, braid geometrical parameters and lay-up. The damage and failure mechanisms at the constituent level are also determined by the micromechanical failure criteria. All the predicted results compare favorably with available experimental data. Parametric studies are also performed to examine the effect of various mechanical and geometrical parameters on the resulting mechanical properties.

  7. Prediction of acute renal failure following soft-tissue injury using the venous bicarbonate concentration.

    PubMed

    Muckart, D J; Moodley, M; Naidu, A G; Reddy, A D; Meineke, K R

    1992-12-01

    Sixty-four patients with soft-tissue injuries were studied prospectively to determine whether an initial venous bicarbonate concentration (VBC) of less than 17 mmol/L would predict the development of myoglobin-induced acute renal failure. The VBC was > 17 mmol/L in 59 patients, seven of whom had myoglobinuria. All recovered without renal complications. The remaining five patients all had VBC < 17 mmol/L and four had myoglobinuria. Acute renal failure developed in four patients (p < 0.001). The VBC on hospital arrival was the most accurate predictor of these patients' risk for the development of acute renal failure following soft-tissue injury. PMID:1474620

  8. Methodology to predict the number of forced outages due to creep failure

    SciTech Connect

    Palermo, J.V. Jr.

    1996-12-31

    All alloy metals at a temperature above 950 degrees Fahrenheit experience creep damage. Creep failures in boiler tubes usually begin after 25 to 40 years of operation. Since creep damage is irreversible, the only remedy is to replace the tube sections. By predicting the number of failures per year, the utility can make the best economic decision concerning tube replacement. This paper describes a methodology to calculate the number of forced outages per yea due to creep failures. This methodology is particularly useful to utilities that have boilers that have at least 25 years of operation.

  9. Endothelial Cell Density to Predict Endothelial Graft Failure After Penetrating Keratoplasty

    PubMed Central

    Lass, Jonathan H.; Sugar, Alan; Benetz, Beth Ann; Beck, Roy W.; Dontchev, Mariya; Gal, Robin L.; Kollman, Craig; Gross, Robert; Heck, Ellen; Holland, Edward J.; Mannis, Mark J.; Raber, Irving; Stark, Walter; Stulting, R. Doyle

    2010-01-01

    Objective To determine whether preoperative and/or postoperative central endothelial cell density (ECD) and its rate of decline postoperatively are predictive of graft failure caused by endothelial decompensation following penetrating keratoplasty to treat a moderate-risk condition, principally, Fuchs dystrophy or pseudophakic corneal edema. Methods In a subset of Cornea Donor Study participants, a central reading center determined preoperative and postoperative ECD from available specular images for 17 grafts that failed because of endothelial decompensation and 483 grafts that did not fail. Results Preoperative ECD was not predictive of graft failure caused by endothelial decompensation (P = .91). However, the 6-month ECD was predictive of subsequent failure (P < .001). Among those that had not failed within the first 6 months, the 5-year cumulative incidence (±95% confidence interval) of failure was 13% (±12%) for the 33 participants with a 6-month ECD of less than 1700 cells/mm2 vs 2%(±3%) for the 137 participants with a 6-monthECDof 2500 cells/mm2 or higher. After 5 years’ follow-up, 40 of 277 participants (14%) with a clear graft had an ECD below 500 cells/mm2. Conclusions Preoperative ECD is unrelated to graft failure from endothelial decompensation, whereas there is a strong correlation of ECD at 6 months with graft failure from endothelial decompensation. A graft can remain clear after 5 years even when the ECD is below 500 cells/mm2. PMID:20065219

  10. Automated failure mode effects and criticality analyses for reliability prediction of multibody mechanical systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiang, Alex Chih-Chien

    Reliability is important to ensure both serviceability and safety of a mechanical system. A method for simulation-based Failure Mode Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) for reliability prediction of mechanical systems is presented. This approach integrates recursive formulation for dynamic analysis, failure criteria for failure determination, graphics techniques for collision detection, and new techniques for modifying dynamics model during the simulation. The automated FMECA method developed consists of three libraries and a graphics collision detection technique. First, a library of mechanical failure modes is created using cause-effect relationships for mechanical failure modes. Second, a library of component failure criteria is constructed by collecting different material test data. Third, a library of simulation algorithms and supporting techniques is built by developing simulation technologies to perform FMECA for mechanical failure modes. In addition, the automated FMECA method uses the developed graphics software VDS for collision detection. Finally, this approach is used to investigate the consequences of four failure modes of a vehicle system. The difficulty in formulating mathematical expressions for a damaged mechanical system is resolved by manipulating the number of cut joint constraints and generalized coordinates to implicitly update the original system topology. Formulations for virtual joints are derived, as well as other new techniques to permit multiple failures during a dynamic simulation. A near-minimum set of generalized coordinates is thus retained throughout the dynamic simulation. Four general-purpose dynamics codes are implemented and effects of four mechanical failure modes of a mechanical system are investigated; suspension failure, joint degradation and breakage, joint stiction, and component yielding and breakage. Failure histories as well as Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) and Mean Time To Failure (MTTF) are obtained. The

  11. Impact and Challenges of a Policy Change to Early Track Extubation in the Operating Room for Fontan.

    PubMed

    Kawaguchi, Atsushi; Liu, Qi; Coquet, Sean; Yasui, Yutaka; Cave, Dominic

    2016-08-01

    hemodynamic instability in the pre-policy-change era (6/39, 15.4 %) and excessive bleeding or respiratory etiologies in the post-policy-change era (10/88, 11.4 %). Significant reduction of PICU length of stay was achieved without any evidence of worsening of patient outcomes. RCA suggests watchful observations with respect to bleeding and respiratory etiologies are the key to prevent failure of extubation in the current practice. PMID:27160099

  12. An investigation of gear mesh failure prediction techniques. M.S. Thesis - Cleveland State Univ.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zakrajsek, James J.

    1989-01-01

    A study was performed in which several gear failure prediction methods were investigated and applied to experimental data from a gear fatigue test apparatus. The primary objective was to provide a baseline understanding of the prediction methods and to evaluate their diagnostic capabilities. The methods investigated use the signal average in both the time and frequency domain to detect gear failure. Data from eleven gear fatigue tests were recorded at periodic time intervals as the gears were run from initiation to failure. Four major failure modes, consisting of heavy wear, tooth breakage, single pits, and distributed pitting were observed among the failed gears. Results show that the prediction methods were able to detect only those gear failures which involved heavy wear or distributed pitting. None of the methods could predict fatigue cracks, which resulted in tooth breakage, or single pits. It is suspected that the fatigue cracks were not detected because of limitations in data acquisition rather than in methodology. Additionally, the frequency response between the gear shaft and the transducer was found to significantly affect the vibration signal. The specific frequencies affected were filtered out of the signal average prior to application of the methods.

  13. Feasibility of using adaptive logic networks to predict compressor unit failure

    SciTech Connect

    Armstrong, W.W.; Chungying Chu; Thomas, M.M.

    1995-12-31

    In this feasibility study, an adaptive logic network (ALN) was trained to predict failures of turbine-driven compressor units using a large database of measurements. No expert knowledge about compressor systems was involved. The predictions used only the statistical properties of the measurements and the indications of failure types. A fuzzy set was used to model measurements typical of normal operation. It was constrained by a requirement imposed during ALN training, that it should have a shape similar to a Gaussian density, more precisely, that its logarithm should be convex-up. Initial results obtained using this approach to knowledge discovery in the database were encouraging.

  14. [Accidental extubation in a pediatric intensive care unit].

    PubMed

    Piva, J P; Amantéa, S; Luchese, S; Giugno, K; Maia, T R; Einloft, L

    1995-01-01

    It is an on-going practice in the pediatric ICUs to obtain and to maintain a working artificial airway. Nevertheless this procedure bears not infrequent risks of accidental extubation (AE) which ranges in several services from 0.9 to 3.3 for each 100 days of intubation. The risk factors that are involved in AE are related to: sedation level, age-group, intubation path, and others. The purpose of the authors in this article was to observe the incidence of AE in their service and to compare the relative risk in the rate of AE among orotracheal and nasotracheal intubation population. A prospective study was taken during six months, in which every patients with artificial airway admitted at the PICU of the Santo Antonio Hospital in Porto Alegre (Brazil) was included except those with tracheostomy. The total number of cases were 673 patients-day with artificial airway, with an average of 3.7 patients with tracheal tube per day. In the period there were 18 AE, with a rate of 2.7 AE/ 100 days. The incidence rate of AE in the orotracheal group was 3.1% and 1.6% in the nasotracheal group with no statistically significant difference (p=0.6). The authors concluded that the pathway of intubation in their study does not carry any additional risk in the incidence of accidental extubation. PMID:14689021

  15. Multiple immune deviations predictive for IVF failure as possible markers for IVIG therapy.

    PubMed

    Chernyshov, Viktor P; Dons'koi, Boris V; Sudoma, Iryna O; Goncharova, Yana O

    2016-08-01

    Recently we have shown that immune deviations (ID) may predict IVF failure. Benefit from IVIG therapy was observed in 115 women with repeated IVF failure according to proposed multiple ID that appeared unfavorable for implantation and live birth. Group of 123 women with repeated IVF failure without IVIG therapy was compared with former group. Immune phenotype and NK activity of peripheral blood lymphocytes were studied by flow cytometry. Potentially predictive for IVF failure ID included elevated expression of CD56, CD158a in T lymphocytes, decreased levels of CD4T lymphocytes, up-regulated expression of HLA DR in CD8+ T cells and NK cells, elevated number of NK cells and increased NK cytotoxicity, increased or decreased expression of CD158a and CD8 in NK cells. Three or more ID may predict implantation failure to a greater degree than one or two ID. In women receiving IVIG in subgroups with 0-1 and 2 ID, there was no increase in implantation rate (IR) and live birth rate (LBR) after IVIG in comparison with patients with the same number of ID but without IVIG correction. After IVIG therapy decreased IR and LBR were restored in women with three or more immune deviations. Multiple immune deviations indicate IVF patients who may benefit from IVIG therapy. IVIG seems to convert "unfavorable" immune phenotype to "favorable" one. PMID:27233364

  16. Predicting age of ovarian failure after radiation to a field that includes the ovaries

    SciTech Connect

    Wallace, W. Hamish B. . E-mail: Hamish.Wallace@ed.ac.uk; Thomson, Angela B.; Saran, Frank; Kelsey, Tom W.

    2005-07-01

    Purpose: To predict the age at which ovarian failure is likely to develop after radiation to a field that includes the ovary in women treated for cancer. Methods and Materials: Modern computed tomography radiotherapy planning allows determination of the effective dose of radiation received by the ovaries. Together with our recent assessment of the radiosensitivity of the human oocyte, the effective surviving fraction of primordial oocytes can be determined and the age of ovarian failure, with 95% confidence limits, predicted for any given dose of radiotherapy. Results: The effective sterilizing dose (ESD: dose of fractionated radiotherapy [Gy] at which premature ovarian failure occurs immediately after treatment in 97.5% of patients) decreases with increasing age at treatment. ESD at birth is 20.3 Gy; at 10 years 18.4 Gy, at 20 years 16.5 Gy, and at 30 years 14.3 Gy. We have calculated 95% confidence limits for age at premature ovarian failure for estimated radiation doses to the ovary from 1 Gy to the ESD from birth to 50 years. Conclusions: We report the first model to reliably predict the age of ovarian failure after treatment with a known dose of radiotherapy. Clinical application of this model will enable physicians to counsel women on their reproductive potential following successful treatment.

  17. Predicting Outcomes of Hospitalization for Heart Failure Using Logistic Regression and Knowledge Discovery Methods

    PubMed Central

    Phillips, Kirk T.; Street, W. Nick

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to determine the best prediction of heart failure outcomes, resulting from two methods -- standard epidemiologic analysis with logistic regression and knowledge discovery with supervised learning/data mining. Heart failure was chosen for this study as it exhibits higher prevalence and cost of treatment than most other hospitalized diseases. The prevalence of heart failure has exceeded 4 million cases in the U.S.. Findings of this study should be useful for the design of quality improvement initiatives, as particular aspects of patient comorbidity and treatment are found to be associated with mortality. This is also a proof of concept study, considering the feasibility of emerging health informatics methods of data mining in conjunction with or in lieu of traditional logistic regression methods of prediction. Findings may also support the design of decision support systems and quality improvement programming for other diseases. PMID:16779367

  18. Prediction of Composite Pressure Vessel Failure Location using Fiber Bragg Grating Sensors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kreger, Steven T.; Taylor, F. Tad; Ortyl, Nicholas E.; Grant, Joseph

    2006-01-01

    Ten composite pressure vessels were instrumented with fiber Bragg grating sensors in order to assess the strain levels of the vessel under various loading conditions. This paper and presentation will discuss the testing methodology, the test results, compare the testing results to the analytical model, and present a possible methodology for predicting the failure location and strain level of composite pressure vessels.

  19. Prediction of Brittle Failure for TBM Tunnels in Anisotropic Rock: A Case Study from Northern Norway

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dammyr, Øyvind

    2016-06-01

    Prediction of spalling and rock burst is especially important for hard rock TBM tunneling, because failure can have larger impact than in a drill and blast tunnel and ultimately threaten excavation feasibility. The majority of research on brittle failure has focused on rock types with isotropic behavior. This paper gives a review of existing theory and its application before a 3.5-m-diameter TBM tunnel in foliated granitic gneiss is used as a case to study brittle failure characteristics of anisotropic rock. Important aspects that should be considered in order to predict brittle failure in anisotropic rock are highlighted. Foliation is responsible for considerable strength anisotropy and is believed to influence the preferred side of v-shaped notch development in the investigated tunnel. Prediction methods such as the semi- empirical criterion, the Hoek- Brown brittle parameters, and the non-linear damage initiation and spalling limit method give reliable results; but only as long as the angle between compression axis and foliation in uniaxial compressive tests is relevant, dependent on the relation between tunnel trend/plunge, strike/dip of foliation, and tunnel boundary stresses. It is further demonstrated that local in situ stress variations, for example, due to the presence of discontinuities, can have profound impact on failure predictions. Other carefully documented case studies into the brittle failure nature of rock, in particular anisotropic rock, are encouraged in order to expand the existing and relatively small database. This will be valuable for future TBM planning and construction stages in highly stressed brittle anisotropic rock.

  20. Noninvasive Failure Load Prediction of Vertebrae with Simulated Lytic Defects and Biomaterial Augmentation.

    PubMed

    Giambini, Hugo; Fang, Zhong; Zeng, Heng; Camp, Jon J; Yaszemski, Michael J; Lu, Lichun

    2016-08-01

    The spine is the most common site for secondary bone metastases, and clinical management for fractures is based on size and geometry of the defect. About 75% of the bone needs to be damaged before lesions are detectable, so clinical tools should measure changes in both geometry and material properties. We have developed an automated, user-friendly, Spine Cancer Assessment (SCA) image-based analysis method that builds on a platform designed for clinical practice providing failure characteristics of vertebrae. The objectives of this study were to (1) validate SCA predictions with experimental failure load outcomes; (2) evaluate the planning capabilities for prophylactic vertebroplasty procedures; and (3) investigate the effect of computed tomography (CT) protocols on predicted failure loads. Twenty-one vertebrae were randomly divided into two groups: (1) simulated defect without treatment (negative control) [n = 9] and (2) with treatment [n = 12]. Defects were created and a polymeric biomaterial was injected into the vertebrae in the treated-defect group. Spines were scanned, reconstructed with two algorithms, and analyzed for fracture loads. To virtually plan for prophylactic intervention, vertebrae with empty lesions were simulated to be augmented with either poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) or a novel bone replacement copolymer, poly(propylene fumarate-co-caprolactone) [P(PF-co-CL)]. Axial rigidities were calculated from the CT images. Failure loads, determined from the cross section with the lowest axial rigidity, were compared with experimental values. Predicted loads correlated well with experimental outcomes (R(2) = 0.73, p < 0.0001). Predictions from negative control specimens highly correlated with measured values (R(2) = 0.90, p < 0.0001). Although a similar correlation was obtained using both algorithms, the smooth reconstruction (B30) tended to underestimate predicted failure loads by ∼50% compared with the ∼10% underestimate

  1. Identifying the necessary and sufficient number of risk factors for predicting academic failure.

    PubMed

    Lucio, Robert; Hunt, Elizabeth; Bornovalova, Marina

    2012-03-01

    Identifying the point at which individuals become at risk for academic failure (grade point average [GPA] < 2.0) involves an understanding of which and how many factors contribute to poor outcomes. School-related factors appear to be among the many factors that significantly impact academic success or failure. This study focused on 12 school-related factors. Using a thorough 5-step process, we identified which unique risk factors place one at risk for academic failure. Academic engagement, academic expectations, academic self-efficacy, homework completion, school relevance, school safety, teacher relationships (positive relationship), grade retention, school mobility, and school misbehaviors (negative relationship) were uniquely related to GPA even after controlling for all relevant covariates. Next, a receiver operating characteristic curve was used to determine a cutoff point for determining how many risk factors predict academic failure (GPA < 2.0). Results yielded a cutoff point of 2 risk factors for predicting academic failure, which provides a way for early identification of individuals who are at risk. Further implications of these findings are discussed. PMID:22182300

  2. Modeling Stress Strain Relationships and Predicting Failure Probabilities For Graphite Core Components

    SciTech Connect

    Duffy, Stephen

    2013-09-09

    This project will implement inelastic constitutive models that will yield the requisite stress-strain information necessary for graphite component design. Accurate knowledge of stress states (both elastic and inelastic) is required to assess how close a nuclear core component is to failure. Strain states are needed to assess deformations in order to ascertain serviceability issues relating to failure, e.g., whether too much shrinkage has taken place for the core to function properly. Failure probabilities, as opposed to safety factors, are required in order to capture the bariability in failure strength in tensile regimes. The current stress state is used to predict the probability of failure. Stochastic failure models will be developed that can accommodate possible material anisotropy. This work will also model material damage (i.e., degradation of mechanical properties) due to radiation exposure. The team will design tools for components fabricated from nuclear graphite. These tools must readily interact with finite element software--in particular, COMSOL, the software algorithm currently being utilized by the Idaho National Laboratory. For the eleastic response of graphite, the team will adopt anisotropic stress-strain relationships available in COMSO. Data from the literature will be utilized to characterize the appropriate elastic material constants.

  3. Finite-Element Damage Analysis for Failure Prediction of Warm Hydroforming Tubular Magnesium Alloy Sheets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chan, L. C.

    2015-02-01

    Bursting has been recognized by many researchers as a common failure mode in the tube hydroforming (THF) process. Therefore, the prediction of the bursting that occurs during the THF process has received much attention in the manufacturing industry and research institutions. Effective prediction of failure can reduce significantly the number of practical trials required to obtain the desired products. However, the prediction of such bursting for magnesium-based (Mg-based) alloy can be a rather difficult issue due to the nonlinear nature of the model used to describe the deformation process at elevated temperatures. This article proposes the failure prediction of Mg-based alloy during the THF process at elevated temperatures by using the Marciniak and Kuczynski (M-K) model. In the study, numerical simulation was performed by the finite-element (FE) analysis commercial software ABAQUS, with the material model assumed to be elastic-plastic. The constitutive model of Mg-based alloy (AZ31B) tube at different elevated temperatures, for instance at 493 K, 523 K, and 553 K, was represented by the Fields-Backofen constitutive equation, with material parameters collected from relevant literature. Accordingly, THF experiments were conducted by a self-developed thermal hydroforming attachment coping with an existing hydraulic power press to validate the prediction of the numerical results. The geometrical parameters for the specimen tubes used in the experiment were Ø22 × 150 mm, and 1.5 mm wall thickness. The numerical and the experimental results were demonstrated to have good agreement. The results of the simulation and the THF experiments imply that the model proposed in this study can provide a reliable prediction of the failure analysis of the Mg-based alloy tube during the THF process.

  4. Venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation in adult respiratory failure: Scores for mortality prediction.

    PubMed

    Hsin, Chun-Hsien; Wu, Meng-Yu; Huang, Chung-Chi; Kao, Kuo-Chin; Lin, Pyng-Jing

    2016-06-01

    Despite a potentially effective therapy for adult respiratory failure, a general agreement on venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VV-ECMO) has not been reached among institutions due to its invasiveness and high resource usage. To establish consensus on the timing of intervention, large ECMO organizations have published the respiratory extracorporeal membrane oxygenation survival prediction (RESP) score and the ECMOnet score, which allow users to predict hospital mortality for candidates with their pre-ECMO presentations. This study was aimed to test the predictive powers of these published scores in a medium-sized cohort enrolling adults treated with VV-ECMO for acute respiratory failure, and develop an institutional prediction model under the framework of the 3 scores if a superior predictive power could be achieved. This retrospective study included 107 adults who received VV-ECMO for severe acute respiratory failure (a PaO2/FiO2 ratio <70 mm Hg) in a tertiary referral center from 2007 to 2015. Essential demographic and clinical data were collected to calculate the RESP score, the ECMOnet score, and the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score before VV-ECMO. The predictive power of hospital mortality of each score was presented as the area under receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC). The multivariate logistic regression was used to develop an institutional prediction model. The surviving to discharge rate was 55% (n = 59). All of the 3 published scores had a real but poor predictive power of hospital mortality in this study. The AUROCs of RESP score, ECMOnet score, and SOFA score were 0.662 (P = 0.004), 0.616 (P = 0.04), and 0.667 (P = 0.003), respectively. An institutional prediction model was established from these score parameters and presented as follows: hospital mortality (Y) = -3.173 + 0.208 × (pre-ECMO SOFA score) + 0.148 × (pre-ECMO mechanical ventilation day) + 1.021

  5. Prediction of failure envelopes of composite tubes subjected to biaxial loadings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gargiulo, C.; Marchetti, M.; Rizzo, A.

    1996-09-01

    Practical cylindrical structures including pressure vessels, pipes, drive shafts and rochet motors are usually subjected to complex loads involving biaxial or triaxial stress systems. In particular, filamentary composite vessels are used in applications of Space Shuttle tankage, as well as for the storage of fluids in various commercial applications. The object of this work is to provide numerical and experiment data on the strength of filament wound carbon fibre reinforced epoxy resin thin tubes under biaxial loading conditions. Internal or external pressure and axial loads are applied simultaneously to produce a variety of biaxial stress conditions. The effects of the winding angle of the fibre reinforcements on the failure loads of the pipes have been examined. Finite elements and thin shell analysis have been applied to the problem using different failure criteria in order to predict the specimen's failure for a comparison with experimental results.

  6. Predicting Renal Failure Progression in Chronic Kidney Disease Using Integrated Intelligent Fuzzy Expert System

    PubMed Central

    Norouzi, Jamshid; Mirbagheri, Seyed Ahmad; Mazdeh, Mitra Mahdavi; Hosseini, Seyed Ahmad

    2016-01-01

    Background. Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a covert disease. Accurate prediction of CKD progression over time is necessary for reducing its costs and mortality rates. The present study proposes an adaptive neurofuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for predicting the renal failure timeframe of CKD based on real clinical data. Methods. This study used 10-year clinical records of newly diagnosed CKD patients. The threshold value of 15 cc/kg/min/1.73 m2 of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) was used as the marker of renal failure. A Takagi-Sugeno type ANFIS model was used to predict GFR values. Variables of age, sex, weight, underlying diseases, diastolic blood pressure, creatinine, calcium, phosphorus, uric acid, and GFR were initially selected for the predicting model. Results. Weight, diastolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus as underlying disease, and current GFR(t) showed significant correlation with GFRs and were selected as the inputs of model. The comparisons of the predicted values with the real data showed that the ANFIS model could accurately estimate GFR variations in all sequential periods (Normalized Mean Absolute Error lower than 5%). Conclusions. Despite the high uncertainties of human body and dynamic nature of CKD progression, our model can accurately predict the GFR variations at long future periods. PMID:27022406

  7. A relation to predict the failure of materials and potential application to volcanic eruptions and landslides

    PubMed Central

    Hao, Shengwang; Liu, Chao; Lu, Chunsheng; Elsworth, Derek

    2016-01-01

    A theoretical explanation of a time-to-failure relation is presented, with this relationship then used to describe the failure of materials. This provides the potential to predict timing (tf − t) immediately before failure by extrapolating the trajectory as it asymptotes to zero with no need to fit unknown exponents as previously proposed in critical power law behaviors. This generalized relation is verified by comparison with approaches to criticality for volcanic eruptions and creep failure. A new relation based on changes with stress is proposed as an alternative expression of Voight’s relation, which is widely used to describe the accelerating precursory signals before material failure and broadly applied to volcanic eruptions, landslides and other phenomena. The new generalized relation reduces to Voight’s relation if stress is limited to increase at a constant rate with time. This implies that the time-derivatives in Voight’s analysis may be a subset of a more general expression connecting stress derivatives, and thus provides a potential method for forecasting these events. PMID:27306851

  8. A relation to predict the failure of materials and potential application to volcanic eruptions and landslides

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hao, Shengwang; Liu, Chao; Lu, Chunsheng; Elsworth, Derek

    2016-06-01

    A theoretical explanation of a time-to-failure relation is presented, with this relationship then used to describe the failure of materials. This provides the potential to predict timing (tf ‑ t) immediately before failure by extrapolating the trajectory as it asymptotes to zero with no need to fit unknown exponents as previously proposed in critical power law behaviors. This generalized relation is verified by comparison with approaches to criticality for volcanic eruptions and creep failure. A new relation based on changes with stress is proposed as an alternative expression of Voight’s relation, which is widely used to describe the accelerating precursory signals before material failure and broadly applied to volcanic eruptions, landslides and other phenomena. The new generalized relation reduces to Voight’s relation if stress is limited to increase at a constant rate with time. This implies that the time-derivatives in Voight’s analysis may be a subset of a more general expression connecting stress derivatives, and thus provides a potential method for forecasting these events.

  9. A relation to predict the failure of materials and potential application to volcanic eruptions and landslides.

    PubMed

    Hao, Shengwang; Liu, Chao; Lu, Chunsheng; Elsworth, Derek

    2016-01-01

    A theoretical explanation of a time-to-failure relation is presented, with this relationship then used to describe the failure of materials. This provides the potential to predict timing (tf - t) immediately before failure by extrapolating the trajectory as it asymptotes to zero with no need to fit unknown exponents as previously proposed in critical power law behaviors. This generalized relation is verified by comparison with approaches to criticality for volcanic eruptions and creep failure. A new relation based on changes with stress is proposed as an alternative expression of Voight's relation, which is widely used to describe the accelerating precursory signals before material failure and broadly applied to volcanic eruptions, landslides and other phenomena. The new generalized relation reduces to Voight's relation if stress is limited to increase at a constant rate with time. This implies that the time-derivatives in Voight's analysis may be a subset of a more general expression connecting stress derivatives, and thus provides a potential method for forecasting these events. PMID:27306851

  10. A simple nonlocal damage model for predicting failure of notched laminates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kennedy, T. C.; Nahan, M. F.

    1995-01-01

    The ability to predict failure loads in notched composite laminates is a requirement in a variety of structural design circumstances. A complicating factor is the development of a zone of damaged material around the notch tip. The objective of this study was to develop a computational technique that simulates progressive damage growth around a notch in a manner that allows the prediction of failure over a wide range of notch sizes. This was accomplished through the use of a relatively simple, nonlocal damage model that incorporates strain-softening. This model was implemented in a two-dimensional finite element program. Calculations were performed for two different laminates with various notch sizes under tensile loading, and the calculations were found to correlate well with experimental results.

  11. Hybrid neural intelligent system to predict business failure in small-to-medium-size enterprises.

    PubMed

    Borrajo, M Lourdes; Baruque, Bruno; Corchado, Emilio; Bajo, Javier; Corchado, Juan M

    2011-08-01

    During the last years there has been a growing need of developing innovative tools that can help small to medium sized enterprises to predict business failure as well as financial crisis. In this study we present a novel hybrid intelligent system aimed at monitoring the modus operandi of the companies and predicting possible failures. This system is implemented by means of a neural-based multi-agent system that models the different actors of the companies as agents. The core of the multi-agent system is a type of agent that incorporates a case-based reasoning system and automates the business control process and failure prediction. The stages of the case-based reasoning system are implemented by means of web services: the retrieval stage uses an innovative weighted voting summarization of self-organizing maps ensembles-based method and the reuse stage is implemented by means of a radial basis function neural network. An initial prototype was developed and the results obtained related to small and medium enterprises in a real scenario are presented. PMID:21809475

  12. Tension Strength, Failure Prediction and Damage Mechanisms in 2D Triaxial Braided Composites with Notch

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Norman, Timothy L.; Anglin, Colin

    1995-01-01

    The unnotched and notched (open hole) tensile strength and failure mechanisms of two-dimensional (2D) triaxial braided composites were examined. The effect of notch size and notch position were investigated. Damage initiation and propagation in notched and unnotched coupons were also examined. Theory developed to predict the normal stress distribution near an open hole and failure for tape laminated composites was evaluated for its applicability to 2D triaxial braided textile composite materials. Four different fiber architectures were considered; braid angle, yarn and braider size, percentage of longitudinal yarns and braider angle varied. Tape laminates equivalent to textile composites were also constructed for comparison. Unnotched tape equivalents were stronger than braided textiles but exhibited greater notch sensitivity. Notched textiles and tape equivalents have roughly the same strength at large notch sizes. Two common damage mechanisms were found: braider yarn cracking and near notch longitudinal yarn splitting. Cracking was found to initiate in braider yarns in unnotched and notched coupons, and propagate in the direction of the braider yarns until failure. Damage initiation stress decreased with increasing braid angle. No significant differences in prediction of near notch strain between textile and tape equivalents could be detected for small braid angle, but the correlations were weak for textiles with large braid angle. Notch strength could not be predicted using existing anisotropic theory for braided textiles due to their insensitivity to notch.

  13. Prediction of failure in notched carbon-fibre-reinforced-polymer laminates under multi-axial loading.

    PubMed

    Tan, J L Y; Deshpande, V S; Fleck, N A

    2016-07-13

    A damage-based finite-element model is used to predict the fracture behaviour of centre-notched quasi-isotropic carbon-fibre-reinforced-polymer laminates under multi-axial loading. Damage within each ply is associated with fibre tension, fibre compression, matrix tension and matrix compression. Inter-ply delamination is modelled by cohesive interfaces using a traction-separation law. Failure envelopes for a notch and a circular hole are predicted for in-plane multi-axial loading and are in good agreement with the observed failure envelopes from a parallel experimental study. The ply-by-ply (and inter-ply) damage evolution and the critical mechanisms of ultimate failure also agree with the observed damage evolution. It is demonstrated that accurate predictions of notched compressive strength are obtained upon employing the band broadening stress for microbuckling, highlighting the importance of this damage mode in compression. This article is part of the themed issue 'Multiscale modelling of the structural integrity of composite materials'. PMID:27242302

  14. Failure of Tube Models to Predict the Linear Rheology of Star/Linear Blends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hall, Ryan; Desai, Priyanka; Kang, Beomgoo; Katzarova, Maria; Huang, Qifan; Lee, Sanghoon; Chang, Taihyun; Venerus, David; Mays, Jimmy; Schieber, Jay; Larson, Ronald

    We compare predictions of two of the most advanced versions of the tube model, namely the Hierarchical model by Wang et al. (J. Rheol. 54:223, 2010) and the BOB (branch-on-branch) model by Das et al. (J. Rheol. 50:207-234, 2006), against linear viscoelastic data on blends of monodisperse star and monodisperse linear polybutadiene polymers. The star was carefully synthesized/characterized by temperature gradient interaction chromatography, and rheological data in the high frequency region were obtained through time-temperature superposition. We found massive failures of both the Hierarchical and BOB models to predict the terminal relaxation behavior of the star/linear blends, despite their success in predicting the rheology of the pure star and pure linear. This failure occurred regardless of the choices made concerning constraint release, such as assuming arm retraction in fat or skinny tubes, or allowing for disentanglement relaxation to cut off the constraint release Rouse process at long times. The failures call into question whether constraint release can be described as a combination of constraint release Rouse processes and dynamic tube dilation within a canonical tube model of entanglement interactions.

  15. A Predictive Safety Management System Software Package Based on the Continuous Hazard Tracking and Failure Prediction Methodology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Quintana, Rolando

    2003-01-01

    The goal of this research was to integrate a previously validated and reliable safety model, called Continuous Hazard Tracking and Failure Prediction Methodology (CHTFPM), into a software application. This led to the development of a safety management information system (PSMIS). This means that the theory or principles of the CHTFPM were incorporated in a software package; hence, the PSMIS is referred to as CHTFPM management information system (CHTFPM MIS). The purpose of the PSMIS is to reduce the time and manpower required to perform predictive studies as well as to facilitate the handling of enormous quantities of information in this type of studies. The CHTFPM theory encompasses the philosophy of looking at the concept of safety engineering from a new perspective: from a proactive, than a reactive, viewpoint. That is, corrective measures are taken before a problem instead of after it happened. That is why the CHTFPM is a predictive safety because it foresees or anticipates accidents, system failures and unacceptable risks; therefore, corrective action can be taken in order to prevent all these unwanted issues. Consequently, safety and reliability of systems or processes can be further improved by taking proactive and timely corrective actions.

  16. A numerical stress based approach for predicting failure in NBG-18 nuclear graphite components with verification problems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hindley, Michael P.; Mitchell, Mark N.; Erasmus, Christiaan; McMurtry, Ross; Becker, Thorsten H.; Blaine, Deborah C.; Groenwold, Albert A.

    2013-05-01

    This paper presents a methodology that can be used for calculating the probability of failure of graphite core components in a nuclear core design, such as that of the Pebble Bed Modular Reactor. The proposed methodology is shown to calculate the failure of multiple geometries using the parameters obtained from tensile specimen test data. Experimental testing of various geometries is undertaken to verify the results. The analysis of the experimental results and a discussion on the accuracy of the failure prediction methodology are presented. The analysis is done at 50% probability of failure as well as lower probabilities of failure.

  17. Intravenous Lignocaine to Blunt Extubation Responses: A Double-Edged Sword.

    PubMed

    Haldar, Rudrashish; Dubey, Madhulika; Rastogi, Amit; Singh, Prabhat K

    2016-01-01

    Extubation after general anesthetic procedures is often accompanied by transient undesirable responses such as hypertension, tachycardia, coughing, bucking, and raised intracranial and intraocular pressures. In neurosurgical procedures, they need to be stringently controlled to prevent the rise in cerebral blood flow, increase in intracranial pressure, and intracranial bleeding. Intravenous (IV) lignocaine (1-1.5 mg/kg) administration is one such method to blunt extubation responses. We describe a case where IV lignocaine was administered within the recommended doses to inhibit the extubation response, but the same resulted in generalized convulsions because of the clinical and physiological status of the patient at that point of time. Intravenous lignocaine administered to obtund extubation responses can itself manifest in toxic reactions depending on the preexisting clinical and physiological state of the patients. Thus, extreme caution and vigilance is to be maintained whenever IV local anesthetics are used for such purposes. PMID:25807045

  18. Development of A Tabulated Thermo-Viscoplastic Material Model with Regularized Failure for Dynamic Ductile Failure Prediction of Structures under Impact Loading

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buyuk, Murat

    It is important to understand the dynamic failure behavior of structures subjected to impact loading in order to improve the survivability. Materials under impact are utterly affected by large deformations, high strain-rates, temperature softening and varying stress-states, which finally may lead to failure. It is shown that the impact characteristics are prone to change with several independent factors such as; impact speed, material thickness, and shape and orientation of the impacting object. Validated numerical simulations of impact tests reveal that the failure on ductile metals occur at certain locations of the failure locus that is constructed on a space as a function of all three stress invariants, which indicates that the failure depends profoundly on the state-of-stress. It is shown that existing material models are not always successful enough to cover the whole range of the failure locus and predict the failure. Therefore, it is a common practice to use different sets of material model parameters tuned or calibrated to cover a specific region of the failure loci in an ad hoc manner for practical reasons to match particular test results. Even in that case, specially tuned material properties are not capable of predicting these limited cases if differences in the mesh size and pattern need to be considered. In this dissertation a new, generic, thermo-elastic/viscoplastic material model with regularized failure is introduced. The new material model is implemented into a non-linear, explicit dynamics finite element code, LS-DYNA. A von Mises type isotropic, isochoric plasticity is utilized, where isotropic hardening, strain-rate hardening and temperature softening is considered. The model takes adiabatic heating and softening into account due to the plastic work. The constitutive relation is coupled with a new regularized accumulated failure law that is specifically developed to cover a large extent of the failure locus as a function of state

  19. Predicting Ductility and Failure Modes of TRIP Steels under Different Loading Conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Choi, Kyoo Sil; Liu, Wenning N.; Sun, Xin; Khaleel, Mohammad A.

    2010-06-12

    We study the ultimate ductility and failure modes of a TRIP (TRansformation-Induced Plasticity) 800 steel under different loading conditions with an advanced micromechanics-based finite element analysis. The representative volume element (RVE) for the TRIP800 under examination is developed based on an actual microstructure obtained from scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The evolution of retained austenite during deformation process and the mechanical properties of the constituent phases of the TRIP800 steel are obtained from the synchrotron-based in-situ high-energy X-ray diffraction (HEXRD) experiments and a self-consistent (SC) model. The ductile failure of the TRIP800 under different loading conditions is predicted in the form of plastic strain localization without any prescribed failure criteria for the individual phases. Comparisons of the computational results with experimental measurements suggest that the microstructure-based finite element analysis can well capture the overall macroscopic behavior of the TRIP800 steel under different loading conditions. The methodology described in this study may be extended for studying the ultimate ductile failure mechanisms of TRIP steels as well as the effects of the various processing parameters on the macroscopic behaviors of TRIP steels.

  20. The Effect of Delamination on Damage Path and Failure Load Prediction for Notched Composite Laminates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Satyanarayana, Arunkumar; Bogert, Philip B.; Chunchu, Prasad B.

    2007-01-01

    The influence of delamination on the progressing damage path and initial failure load in composite laminates is investigated. Results are presented from a numerical and an experimental study of center-notched tensile-loaded coupons. The numerical study includes two approaches. The first approach considers only intralaminar (fiber breakage and matrix cracking) damage modes in calculating the progression of the damage path. In the second approach, the model is extended to consider the effect of interlaminar (delamination) damage modes in addition to the intralaminar damage modes. The intralaminar damage is modeled using progressive damage analysis (PDA) methodology implemented with the VUMAT subroutine in the ABAQUS finite element code. The interlaminar damage mode has been simulated using cohesive elements in ABAQUS. In the experimental study, 2-3 specimens each of two different stacking sequences of center-notched laminates are tensile loaded. The numerical results from the two different modeling approaches are compared with each other and the experimentally observed results for both laminate types. The comparisons reveal that the second modeling approach, where the delamination damage mode is included together with the intralaminar damage modes, better simulates the experimentally observed damage modes and damage paths, which were characterized by splitting failures perpendicular to the notch tips in one or more layers. Additionally, the inclusion of the delamination mode resulted in a better prediction of the loads at which the failure took place, which were higher than those predicted by the first modeling approach which did not include delaminations.

  1. Methods for predicting peak discharge of floods caused by failure of natural and constructed earthen dams

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Walder, J.S.; O'Connor, J. E.

    1997-01-01

    Floods from failures of natural and constructed dams constitute a widespread hazard to people and property. Expeditious means of assessing flood hazards are necessary, particularly in the case of natural dams, which may form suddenly and unexpectedly. We revise statistical relations (derived from data for past constructed and natural dam failures) between peak discharge (Q(p)) and water volume released (V(0)) or drop in lake level (d) but assert that such relations, even when cast into a dimensionless form, are of limited utility because they fail to portray the effect of breach-formation rate. We then analyze a simple, physically based model of dam-breach formation to show that the hydrograph at the breach depends primarily on a dimensionless parameter ?? = kV0/g1/2d7/2, where k is the mean erosion rate of the breach and g is acceleration due to gravity. The functional relationship between Q(p) and ?? takes asymptotically distinct forms depending on whether ?? << 1 (relatively slow breach formation or small lake volume) or ?? >> 1 (relatively fast breach formation or large lake volume). Theoretical predictions agree well with data from dam failures for which k, and thus ??, can be estimated. The theory thus provides a rapid means of predicting the plausible range of values of peak discharge at the breach in an earthen dam as long as the impounded water volume and the water depth at the dam face can be estimated.

  2. Prediction of early lethal SEGR failures of VDMOSFETs for commercial space systems

    SciTech Connect

    Titus, J.L.; Wheatley, C.F.; Wheatley, T.H.

    1999-12-01

    Quantitative risk assessments are presented for two radiation-hardened MOSFETs (Harris FSL11A0 and FRL11A0) using an extracted expression, integral flux curves representing different conditions, and experimentally-determined signature curves taken at different ion impact angles. The effectiveness of certain parameters including the selected orbit, spacecraft shielding thickness, drain and gate biases, device hardness, and time of exposure are discussed. Failures are studied using normalized Monte Carlo simulations validated by statistical methods. These validated Monte Carlo simulations are then used to extract and present an extracted expression. The concept of a lethal ion rate is discussed. Single event gate rupture (SEGR) failure thresholds at different ion impact angles are measured and reported on the Harris FSL11A0 and FRL11A0 (radiation-hardened vertical MOSFETs having similar layouts but with different SEGR sensitivities). Integral flux curves are presented for various orbits and conditions. Predictions of very early failures are performed using the extracted expression, the integral flux curves, and the new signature curves. Based upon these predictions, the influence of selected parameters are evaluated.

  3. An endometrial gene expression signature accurately predicts recurrent implantation failure after IVF

    PubMed Central

    Koot, Yvonne E. M.; van Hooff, Sander R.; Boomsma, Carolien M.; van Leenen, Dik; Groot Koerkamp, Marian J. A.; Goddijn, Mariëtte; Eijkemans, Marinus J. C.; Fauser, Bart C. J. M.; Holstege, Frank C. P.; Macklon, Nick S.

    2016-01-01

    The primary limiting factor for effective IVF treatment is successful embryo implantation. Recurrent implantation failure (RIF) is a condition whereby couples fail to achieve pregnancy despite consecutive embryo transfers. Here we describe the collection of gene expression profiles from mid-luteal phase endometrial biopsies (n = 115) from women experiencing RIF and healthy controls. Using a signature discovery set (n = 81) we identify a signature containing 303 genes predictive of RIF. Independent validation in 34 samples shows that the gene signature predicts RIF with 100% positive predictive value (PPV). The strength of the RIF associated expression signature also stratifies RIF patients into distinct groups with different subsequent implantation success rates. Exploration of the expression changes suggests that RIF is primarily associated with reduced cellular proliferation. The gene signature will be of value in counselling and guiding further treatment of women who fail to conceive upon IVF and suggests new avenues for developing intervention. PMID:26797113

  4. A general model for predicting coolant activity behaviour for fuel-failure monitoring analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    El-Jaby, A.; Lewis, B. J.; Thompson, W. T.; Iglesias, F.; Ip, M.

    2010-04-01

    A mathematical treatment has been developed to predict the release of volatile fission products from operating defective nuclear fuel elements. The fission product activity in both the fuel-to-sheath gap and primary heat transport system as a function of time can be predicted during all reactor operating conditions, including: startup, steady-state, shutdown, and bundle-shifting manoeuvres. In addition, an improved ability to predict the coolant activity of the 135Xe isotope in commercial reactors is discussed. A method is also proposed to estimate both the burnup and the amount of tramp uranium deposits in-core. The model has been validated against in-reactor experiments conducted with defective fuel elements containing natural and artificial failures at the Chalk River Laboratories. Lastly, the model has been benchmarked against a defective fuel occurrence in a commercial reactor.

  5. NASA Langley developments in response calculations needed for failure and life prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Housner, Jerrold M.

    1993-01-01

    NASA Langley developments in response calculations needed for failure and life predictions are discussed. Topics covered include: structural failure analysis in concurrent engineering; accuracy of independent regional modeling demonstrated on classical example; functional interface method accurately joins incompatible finite element models; interface method for insertion of local detail modeling extended to curve pressurized fuselage window panel; interface concept for joining structural regions; motivation for coupled 2D-3D analysis; compression panel with discontinuous stiffener coupled 2D-3D model and axial surface strains at the middle of the hat stiffener; use of adaptive refinement with multiple methods; adaptive mesh refinement; and studies on quantity effect of bow-type initial imperfections on reliability of stiffened panels.

  6. Failure prediction in ceramic composites using acoustic emission and digital image correlation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whitlow, Travis; Jones, Eric; Przybyla, Craig

    2016-02-01

    The objective of the work performed here was to develop a methodology for linking in-situ detection of localized matrix cracking to the final failure location in continuous fiber reinforced CMCs. First, the initiation and growth of matrix cracking are measured and triangulated via acoustic emission (AE) detection. High amplitude events at relatively low static loads can be associated with initiation of large matrix cracks. When there is a localization of high amplitude events, a measurable effect on the strain field can be observed. Full field surface strain measurements were obtained using digital image correlation (DIC). An analysis using the combination of the AE and DIC data was able to predict the final failure location.

  7. NASA Langley developments in response calculations needed for failure and life prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Housner, Jerrold M.

    1993-10-01

    NASA Langley developments in response calculations needed for failure and life predictions are discussed. Topics covered include: structural failure analysis in concurrent engineering; accuracy of independent regional modeling demonstrated on classical example; functional interface method accurately joins incompatible finite element models; interface method for insertion of local detail modeling extended to curve pressurized fuselage window panel; interface concept for joining structural regions; motivation for coupled 2D-3D analysis; compression panel with discontinuous stiffener coupled 2D-3D model and axial surface strains at the middle of the hat stiffener; use of adaptive refinement with multiple methods; adaptive mesh refinement; and studies on quantity effect of bow-type initial imperfections on reliability of stiffened panels.

  8. Risk Analysis of the Space Shuttle: Pre-Challenger Bayeisan Prediction of Failure

    SciTech Connect

    Dana L. Kelly

    2008-02-01

    Dalal et al performed a statistical analysis of field and nozzle O-ring data collected prior to the ill-fated launch of the Challenger in January 1986. The purpose of their analysis was to show how statistical analysis could be used to provide information to decisionmakers prior to the launch, information that could have been expected to lead to a decision to abort the launch due to the low temperatures (~30o F.) present at the launch pad on the morning of the scheduled launch. Dalal et al. performed a frequentist analysis of the O-ring data, and found that a logistic regression model provided a relatively good fit to the past data. In the second portion of their paper, Dalal et al. propagated parameter uncertainties through the fitted logistic regression model in order to estimate the probability of shuttle failure due to O-ring failure at the estimated launch temperature of ~30o F. Because their analysis was frequentist in nature, probability distributions representing epistemic uncertainty in the input parameters were not available, and the authors had to resort to an approximate approach based on bootstrap confidence intervals. In this paper, we will re-evaluate the analyses of Dalal et al. from a Bayesian perspective. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling will be used to sample from the joint posterior distribution of the model parameters, and to sample from the posterior predictive distributions at the estimated launch temperature, a temperature that had not been observed in prior launches of the space shuttle. Uncertainties, which are represented by probability distributions in the Bayesian approach, are propagated through the model to obtain a probability distribution for O-ring failure, and subsequently for shuttle failure as a result of O-ring failure. No approximations are required in the Bayesian approach and the resulting distributions can be input to a decision analysis to obtain expected utility for the decision to launch.

  9. Predicting heart failure decompensation using cardiac implantable electronic devices: a review of practices and challenges.

    PubMed

    Hawkins, Nathaniel M; Virani, Sean A; Sperrin, Matthew; Buchan, Iain E; McMurray, John J V; Krahn, Andrew D

    2016-08-01

    Cardiac implantable electronic devices include remote monitoring tools intended to guide heart failure management. The monitoring focus has been on averting hospitalizations by predicting worsening heart failure. However, although device measurements including intrathoracic impedance correlate with risk of decompensation, they individually predict hospitalizations with limited accuracy. Current 'crisis detection' methods involve repeatedly screening for impending decompensation, and do not adhere to the principles of diagnostic testing. Complex substrate, limited test performance, low outcome incidence, and long test to outcome times inevitably generate low positive and high negative predictive values. When combined with spectrum bias, the generalizability, incremental value, and cost-effectiveness of device algorithms are questionable. To avoid these pitfalls, remote monitoring may need to shift from crisis detection to health maintenance, keeping the patient within an ideal physiological range through continuous 'closed loop' interaction and dynamic therapy adjustment. Test performance must also improve, possibly through combination with physiological sensors in different dimensions, static baseline characteristics, and biomarkers. Complex modelling may tailor monitoring to individual phenotypes, and thus realize a personalized medicine approach. Future randomized controlled trials should carefully consider these issues, and ensure that the interventions tested are generalizable to clinical practice. PMID:26663507

  10. Failure prediction method for hydro forming simulation of thick walled tubes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kolleck, Ralf; Auer, Peter; Auer, Gerfried

    2011-05-01

    The industrial production of thick walled hydro formed steel parts is a process difficult to control. In particular the prevention of cracks in the production of these parts is very important. It is of utmost importance to have a virtual tool to predict forming results. Standard methods for the simulation of hydro formed parts base upon processes using a shell element formulation and implement a forming limit curve (FLC) for crack prediction. But the forming limit curve is limited to the case of linear strain paths. The initial FLC is no longer valid in the case of nonlinear strain paths. Because of the geometric specifications of the investigated parts—thick walls, compact dimensions, high strains—and the known limitations of the forming limit curve—which don't accord to the hydro forming process— these standard simulation methods are not applicable for the present investigations. A new approach to simulate thick walled hydro formed parts is the use of a volume element formulation in combination with a more complex failure criterion, which gives information about the risk of ductile normal fracture and ductile shear fractures with nonlinear strain paths. The onset of necking must be predicted directly by the volume elements. The aim of this work is to implement the failure criteria in a hydroforming simulation and to compare the results of the simulation with real cracked test parts. The commercial FEM code PamStamp 2G is used as a solver and a comprehensive fracture model is applied. This fracture model distinguishes between two mechanisms responsible for ductile fracture. One is the void growth and coalescence (ductile normal fracture) and the other one is the shear failure model (ductile shear fracture).

  11. A standardized model for predicting flap failure using indocyanine green dye

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zimmermann, Terence M.; Moore, Lindsay S.; Warram, Jason M.; Greene, Benjamin J.; Nakhmani, Arie; Korb, Melissa L.; Rosenthal, Eben L.

    2016-03-01

    Techniques that provide a non-invasive method for evaluation of intraoperative skin flap perfusion are currently available but underutilized. We hypothesize that intraoperative vascular imaging can be used to reliably assess skin flap perfusion and elucidate areas of future necrosis by means of a standardized critical perfusion threshold. Five animal groups (negative controls, n=4; positive controls, n=5; chemotherapy group, n=5; radiation group, n=5; chemoradiation group, n=5) underwent pre-flap treatments two weeks prior to undergoing random pattern dorsal fasciocutaneous flaps with a length to width ratio of 2:1 (3 x 1.5 cm). Flap perfusion was assessed via laser-assisted indocyanine green dye angiography and compared to standard clinical assessment for predictive accuracy of flap necrosis. For estimating flap-failure, clinical prediction achieved a sensitivity of 79.3% and a specificity of 90.5%. When average flap perfusion was more than three standard deviations below the average flap perfusion for the negative control group at the time of the flap procedure (144.3+/-17.05 absolute perfusion units), laser-assisted indocyanine green dye angiography achieved a sensitivity of 81.1% and a specificity of 97.3%. When absolute perfusion units were seven standard deviations below the average flap perfusion for the negative control group, specificity of necrosis prediction was 100%. Quantitative absolute perfusion units can improve specificity for intraoperative prediction of viable tissue. Using this strategy, a positive predictive threshold of flap failure can be standardized for clinical use.

  12. Progressive failure methodologies for predicting residual strength and life of laminated composites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harris, Charles E.; Allen, David H.; Obrien, T. Kevin

    1991-01-01

    Two progressive failure methodologies currently under development by the Mechanics of Materials Branch at NASA Langley Research Center are discussed. The damage tolerance/fail safety methodology developed by O'Brien is an engineering approach to ensuring adequate durability and damage tolerance by treating only delamination onset and the subsequent delamination accumulation through the laminate thickness. The continuum damage model developed by Allen and Harris employs continuum damage laws to predict laminate strength and life. The philosophy, mechanics framework, and current implementation status of each methodology are presented.

  13. Congestive heart failure and converting enzyme inhibition: failure of current prognostic criteria for predicting subsequent renal insufficiency.

    PubMed Central

    Odum, J.; Carson, P.; Russell, G.

    1991-01-01

    Angiotensin-1-converting enzyme inhibitors have an effective and established role in the treatment of patients with congestive heart failure. However, a small number of such patients will subsequently develop renal insufficiency. These patients may be identified prior to, or shortly after, commencement of therapy by recognized criteria. This report describes 4 patients with congestive heart failure who developed severe renal insufficiency secondary to either enalapril or captopril therapy in the absence of any currently recognized predisposing factors. One patient died. PMID:2068028

  14. Predictions of High Strain Rate Failure Modes in Layered Aluminum Composites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khanikar, Prasenjit; Zikry, M. A.

    2014-01-01

    A dislocation density-based crystalline plasticity formulation, specialized finite-element techniques, and rational crystallographic orientation relations were used to predict and characterize the failure modes associated with the high strain rate behavior of aluminum layered composites. Two alloy layers, a high strength alloy, aluminum 2195, and an aluminum alloy 2139, with high toughness, were modeled with representative microstructures that included precipitates, dispersed particles, and different grain boundary distributions. Different layer arrangements were investigated for high strain rate applications and the optimal arrangement was with the high toughness 2139 layer on the bottom, which provided extensive shear strain localization, and the high strength 2195 layer on the top for high strength resistance The layer thickness of the bottom high toughness layer also affected the bending behavior of the roll-bonded interface and the potential delamination of the layers. Shear strain localization, dynamic cracking, and delamination are the mutually competing failure mechanisms for the layered metallic composite, and control of these failure modes can be used to optimize behavior for high strain rate applications.

  15. Human Factors Predicting Failure and Success in Hospital Information System Implementations in Sub-Saharan Africa.

    PubMed

    Verbeke, Frank; Karara, Gustave; Nyssen, Marc

    2015-01-01

    From 2007 through 2014, the authors participated in the implementation of open source hospital information systems (HIS) in 19 hospitals in Rwanda, Burundi, DR Congo, Congo-Brazzaville, Gabon, and Mali. Most of these implementations were successful, but some failed. At the end of a seven-year implementation effort, a number of risk factors, facilitators, and pragmatic approaches related to the deployment of HIS in Sub-Saharan health facilities have been identified. Many of the problems encountered during the HIS implementation process were not related to technical issues but human, cultural, and environmental factors. This study retrospectively evaluates the predictive value of 14 project failure factors and 15 success factors in HIS implementation in the Sub-Saharan region. Nine of the failure factors were strongly correlated with project failure, three were moderately correlated, and one weakly correlated. Regression analysis also confirms that eight factors were strongly correlated with project success, four moderately correlated, and two weakly correlated. The study results may help estimate the expedience of future HIS projects. PMID:26262097

  16. Predicting the Probability of Failure of Cementitious Sewer Pipes Using Stochastic Finite Element Method

    PubMed Central

    Alani, Amir M.; Faramarzi, Asaad

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, a stochastic finite element method (SFEM) is employed to investigate the probability of failure of cementitious buried sewer pipes subjected to combined effect of corrosion and stresses. A non-linear time-dependant model is used to determine the extent of concrete corrosion. Using the SFEM, the effects of different random variables, including loads, pipe material, and corrosion on the remaining safe life of the cementitious sewer pipes are explored. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate the merit of the proposed SFEM in evaluating the effects of the contributing parameters upon the probability of failure of cementitious sewer pipes. The developed SFEM offers many advantages over traditional probabilistic techniques since it does not use any empirical equations in order to determine failure of pipes. The results of the SFEM can help the concerning industry (e.g., water companies) to better plan their resources by providing accurate prediction for the remaining safe life of cementitious sewer pipes. PMID:26068092

  17. Predicting the Probability of Failure of Cementitious Sewer Pipes Using Stochastic Finite Element Method.

    PubMed

    Alani, Amir M; Faramarzi, Asaad

    2015-06-01

    In this paper, a stochastic finite element method (SFEM) is employed to investigate the probability of failure of cementitious buried sewer pipes subjected to combined effect of corrosion and stresses. A non-linear time-dependant model is used to determine the extent of concrete corrosion. Using the SFEM, the effects of different random variables, including loads, pipe material, and corrosion on the remaining safe life of the cementitious sewer pipes are explored. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate the merit of the proposed SFEM in evaluating the effects of the contributing parameters upon the probability of failure of cementitious sewer pipes. The developed SFEM offers many advantages over traditional probabilistic techniques since it does not use any empirical equations in order to determine failure of pipes. The results of the SFEM can help the concerning industry (e.g., water companies) to better plan their resources by providing accurate prediction for the remaining safe life of cementitious sewer pipes. PMID:26068092

  18. Potential Impact of a Free Online HIV Treatment Response Prediction System for Reducing Virological Failures and Drug Costs after Antiretroviral Therapy Failure in a Resource-Limited Setting

    PubMed Central

    Revell, Andrew D.; Wang, Dechao; Pozniak, Anton; Montaner, Julio S.; Lane, H. Clifford; Larder, Brendan A.

    2013-01-01

    Objective. Antiretroviral drug selection in resource-limited settings is often dictated by strict protocols as part of a public health strategy. The objective of this retrospective study was to examine if the HIV-TRePS online treatment prediction tool could help reduce treatment failure and drug costs in such settings. Methods. The HIV-TRePS computational models were used to predict the probability of response to therapy for 206 cases of treatment change following failure in India. The models were used to identify alternative locally available 3-drug regimens, which were predicted to be effective. The costs of these regimens were compared to those actually used in the clinic. Results. The models predicted the responses to treatment of the cases with an accuracy of 0.64. The models identified alternative drug regimens that were predicted to result in improved virological response and lower costs than those used in the clinic in 85% of the cases. The average annual cost saving was $364 USD per year (41%). Conclusions. Computational models that do not require a genotype can predict and potentially avoid treatment failure and may reduce therapy costs. The use of such a system to guide therapeutic decision-making could confer health economic benefits in resource-limited settings. PMID:24175292

  19. Prediction of Heart Failure Decompensation Events by Trend Analysis of Telemonitoring Data.

    PubMed

    Henriques, J; Carvalho, P; Paredes, S; Rocha, T; Habetha, J; Antunes, M; Morais, J

    2015-09-01

    This paper aims to assess the predictive value of physiological data daily collected in a telemonitoring study in the early detection of heart failure (HF) decompensation events. The main hypothesis is that physiological time series with similar progression (trends) may have prognostic value in future clinical states (decompensation or normal condition). The strategy is composed of two main steps: a trend similarity analysis and a predictive procedure. The similarity scheme combines the Haar wavelet decomposition, in which signals are represented as linear combinations of a set of orthogonal bases, with the Karhunen-Loève transform, that allows the selection of the reduced set of bases that capture the fundamental behavior of the time series. The prediction process assumes that future evolution of current condition can be inferred from the progression of past physiological time series. Therefore, founded on the trend similarity measure, a set of time series presenting a progression similar to the current condition is identified in the historical dataset, which is then employed, through a nearest neighbor approach, in the current prediction. The strategy is evaluated using physiological data resulting from the myHeart telemonitoring study, namely blood pressure, respiration rate, heart rate, and body weight collected from 41 patients (15 decompensation events and 26 normal conditions). The obtained results suggest, in general, that the physiological data have predictive value, and in particular, that the proposed scheme is particularly appropriate to address the early detection of HF decompensation. PMID:25248206

  20. Failure Mode Classification for Life Prediction Modeling of Solid-State Lighting

    SciTech Connect

    Sakalaukus, Peter Joseph

    2015-08-01

    light power” of the SSL luminaire. The use of the Arrhenius equation necessitates two different temperature conditions, 25°C and 45°C are suggested by TM28, to determine the SSL lamp specific activation energy. One principal issue with TM28 is the lack of additional stresses or parameters needed to characterize non-temperature dependent failure mechanisms. Another principal issue with TM28 is the assumption that lumen maintenance or lumen depreciation gives an adequate comparison between SSL luminaires. Additionally, TM28 has no process for the determination of acceleration factors or lifetime estimations. Currently, a literature gap exists for established accelerated test methods for SSL devices to assess quality, reliability and durability before being introduced into the marketplace. Furthermore, there is a need for Physics-of-Failure based approaches to understand the processes and mechanisms that induce failure for the assessment of SSL reliability in order to develop generalized acceleration factors that better represent SSL product lifetime. This and the deficiencies in TM28 validate the need behind the development of acceleration techniques to quantify SSL reliability under a variety of environmental conditions. The ability to assess damage accrual and investigate reliability of SSL components and systems is essential to understanding the life time of the SSL device itself. The methodologies developed in this work increases the understanding of SSL devices iv through the investigation of component and device reliability under a variety of accelerated test conditions. The approaches for suitable lifetime predictions through the development of novel generalized acceleration factors, as well as a prognostics and health management framework, will greatly reduce the time and effort needed to produce SSL acceleration factors for the development of lifetime predictions.

  1. Slope Failure Prediction and Early Warning Awareness Education for Reducing Landslides Casualty in Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koay, S. P.; Tay, L. T.; Fukuoka, H.; Koyama, T.; Sakai, N.; Jamaludin, S. B.; Lateh, H.

    2015-12-01

    Northeast monsoon causes heavy rain in east coast of Peninsular Malaysia from November to March, every year. During this monsoon period, besides the happening of flood along east coast, landslides also causes millions of Malaysian Ringgit economical losses. Hence, it is essential to study the prediction of slope failure to prevent the casualty of landslides happening. In our study, we introduce prediction method of the accumulated rainfall affecting the stability of the slope. If the curve, in the graph, which is presented by rainfall intensity versus accumulated rainfall, crosses over the critical line, the condition of the slope is considered in high risk where the data are calculated and sent from rain gauge in the site via internet. If the possibility of slope failure is going high, the alert message will be sent out to the authorities for decision making on road block or setting the warning light at the road side. Besides road block and warning light, we propose to disseminate short message, to pre-registered mobile phone user, to notify the public for easing the traffic jam and avoiding unnecessary public panic. Prediction is not enough to prevent the casualty. Early warning awareness of the public is very important to reduce the casualty of landslides happening. IT technology does not only play a main role in disseminating information, early warning awareness education, by using IT technology, should be conducted, in schools, to give early warning awareness on natural hazard since childhood. Knowing the pass history on landslides occurrence will gain experience on the landslides happening. Landslides historical events with coordinate information are stored in database. The public can browse these historical events via internet. By referring to such historical landslides events, the public may know where did landslides happen before and the possibility of slope failure occurrence again is considered high. Simulation of rainfall induced slope failure mechanism

  2. Application of a neural network as a potential aid in predicting NTF pump failure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rogers, James L.; Hill, Jeffrey S.; Lamarsh, William J., II; Bradley, David E.

    1993-01-01

    The National Transonic Facility has three centrifugal multi-stage pumps to supply liquid nitrogen to the wind tunnel. Pump reliability is critical to facility operation and test capability. A highly desirable goal is to be able to detect a pump rotating component problem as early as possible during normal operation and avoid serious damage to other pump components. If a problem is detected before serious damage occurs, the repair cost and downtime could be reduced significantly. A neural network-based tool was developed for monitoring pump performance and aiding in predicting pump failure. Once trained, neural networks can rapidly process many combinations of input values other than those used for training to approximate previously unknown output values. This neural network was applied to establish relationships among the critical frequencies and aid in predicting failures. Training pairs were developed from frequency scans from typical tunnel operations. After training, various combinations of critical pump frequencies were propagated through the neural network. The approximated output was used to create a contour plot depicting the relationships of the input frequencies to the output pump frequency.

  3. Diagnostic prediction of renal failure from blood serum analysis by FTIR spectrometry and chemometrics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khanmohammadi, Mohammdreza; Ghasemi, Keyvan; Garmarudi, Amir Bagheri; Ramin, Mehdi

    2015-02-01

    A new diagnostic approach based on Attenuated Total Reflectance-Fourier Transform Infrared (ATR-FTIR) spectrometry and classification algorithm has been introduced which provides a rapid, reliable, and easy way to perform blood test for the diagnosis of renal failure. Blood serum samples from 35 renal failure patients and 40 healthy persons were analyzed by ATR-FTIR spectrometry. The resulting data was processed by Quadratic Discriminant Analysis (QDA) and QDA combined with simple filtered method. Spectroscopic studies were performed in 900-2000 cm-1 spectral region with 3.85 cm-1 data space. Results showed 93.33% and 100% of accuracy for QDA and filter-QDA models, respectively. In the first step, 30 samples were applied to construct the model. In order to modify the capability of QDA in prediction of test samples, filter-based feature selection methods were applied. It was found that the filtered spectra coupled with QDA could correctly predict the test samples in most of the cases.

  4. Failure Predictions of Out-of-Autoclave Sandwich Joints with Delaminations Under Flexure Loads

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nordendale, Nikolas; Goyal, Vinay; Lundgren, Eric; Patel, Dhruv; Farrokh, Babak; Jones, Justin; Fischetti, Grace; Segal, Kenneth

    2015-01-01

    An analysis and a test program was conducted to investigate the damage tolerance of composite sandwich joints. The joints contained a single circular delamination between the face-sheet and the doubler. The coupons were fabricated through out-of-autoclave (OOA) processes, a technology NASA is investigating for joining large composite sections. The four-point bend flexure test was used to induce compression loading into the side of the joint where the delamination was placed. The compression side was chosen since it tends to be one of the most critical loads in launch vehicles. Autoclave cure was used to manufacture the composite sandwich sections, while the doubler was co-bonded onto the sandwich face-sheet using an OOA process after sandwich panels were cured. A building block approach was adopted to characterize the mechanical properties of the joint material, including the fracture toughness between the doubler and face-sheet. Twelve four-point-bend samples were tested, six in the sandwich core ribbon orientation and six in sandwich core cross-ribbon direction. Analysis predicted failure initiation and propagation at the pre-delaminated location, consistent with experimental observations. Fracture analyses methods predicted failure loads in close agreement with tests. This investigation demonstrated a strength reduction of 10 percent due to a flaw of significant size compared to the width of the sample. Therefore, concerns of bonding an OOA material to an in-autoclave material was mitigated for the geometries, materials, and load configurations considered.

  5. Failure Predictions of Out-of-Autoclave Sandwich Joints with Delaminations under Flexure Loads

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nordendale, Nikolas; Goyal, Vinay; Lundgren, Eric; Patel, Dhruv; Farrokh, Babak; Jones, Justin; Fischetti, Grace; Segal, Kenneth

    2015-01-01

    An analysis and a test program was conducted to investigate the damage tolerance of composite sandwich joints. The joints contained a single circular delamination between the face-sheet and the doubler. The coupons were fabricated through out-of-autoclave (OOA) processes, a technology NASA is investigating for joining large composite sections. The four-point bend flexure test was used to induce compression loading into the side of the joint where the delamination was placed. The compression side was chosen since it tends to be one of the most critical loads in launch vehicles. Autoclave cure was used to manufacture the composite sandwich sections, while the doubler was co-bonded onto the sandwich face-sheet using an OOA process after sandwich panels were cured. A building block approach was adopted to characterize the mechanical properties of the joint material, including the fracture toughness between the doubler and facesheet. Twelve four-point-bend samples were tested, six in the sandwich core ribbon orientation and six in sandwich core cross-ribbon direction. Analysis predicted failure initiation and propagation at the pre-delaminated location, consistent with experimental observations. A building block approach using fracture analyses methods predicted failure loads in close agreement with tests. This investigation demonstrated a small strength reduction due to a flaw of significant size compared to the width of the sample. Therefore, concerns of bonding an OOA material to an in-autoclave material was mitigated for the geometries, materials, and load configurations considered.

  6. Failure Predictions of Out-of-Autoclave Sandwich Joints with Delaminations Under Flexure Loads

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nordendale, Nikolas A.; Goyal, Vinay K.; Lundgren, Eric C.; Patel, Dhruv N.; Farrokh, Babak; Jones, Justin; Fischetti, Grace; Segal, Kenneth N.

    2015-01-01

    An analysis and a test program was conducted to investigate the damage tolerance of composite sandwich joints. The joints contained a single circular delamination between the face-sheet and the doubler. The coupons were fabricated through out-of-autoclave (OOA) processes, a technology NASA is investigating for joining large composite sections. The four-point bend flexure test was used to induce compression loading into the side of the joint where the delamination was placed. The compression side was chosen since it tends to be one of the most critical loads in launch vehicles. Autoclave cure was used to manufacture the composite sandwich sections, while the doubler was co-bonded onto the sandwich face-sheet using an OOA process after sandwich panels were cured. A building block approach was adopted to characterize the mechanical properties of the joint material, including the fracture toughness between the doubler and face-sheet. Twelve four-point-bend samples were tested, six in the sandwich core ribbon orientation and six in sandwich core cross-ribbon direction. Analysis predicted failure initiation and propagation at the pre-delaminated location, consistent with experimental observations. A building block approach using fracture analyses methods predicted failure loads in close agreement with tests. This investigation demonstrated a small strength reduction due to a flaw of significant size compared to the width of the sample. Therefore, concerns of bonding an OOA material to an in-autoclave material was mitigated for the geometries, materials, and load configurations considered.

  7. Failure mechanisms and lifetime prediction methodology for polybutylene pipe in water distribution system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Niu, Xiqun

    Polybutylene (PB) is a semicrystalline thermoplastics. It has been widely used in potable water distribution piping system. However, field practice shows that failure occurs much earlier than the expected service lifetime. What are the causes and how to appropriately evaluate its lifetime motivate this study. In this thesis, three parts of work have been done. First is the understanding of PB, which includes material thermo and mechanical characterization, aging phenomena and notch sensitivity. The second part analyzes the applicability of the existing lifetime testing method for PB. It is shown that PB is an anomaly in terms of the temperature-lifetime relation because of the fracture mechanism transition across the testing temperature range. The third part is the development of the methodology of lifetime prediction for PB pipe. The fracture process of PB pipe consists of three stages, i.e., crack initiation, slow crack growth (SCG) and crack instability. The practical lifetime of PB pipe is primarily determined by the duration of the first two stages. The mechanism of crack initiation and the quantitative estimation of the time to crack initiation are studied by employing environment stress cracking technique. A fatigue slow crack growth testing method has been developed and applied in the study of SCG. By using Paris-Erdogan equation, a model is constructed to evaluate the time for SCG. As a result, the total lifetime is determined. Through this work, the failure mechanisms of PB pipe has been analyzed and the lifetime prediction methodology has been developed.

  8. Multi-Marker Strategy in Heart Failure: Combination of ST2 and CRP Predicts Poor Outcome.

    PubMed

    Dupuy, Anne Marie; Curinier, Corentin; Kuster, Nils; Huet, Fabien; Leclercq, Florence; Davy, Jean Marc; Cristol, Jean Paul; Roubille, François

    2016-01-01

    Natriuretic peptides (BNP and NT-proBNP) are recognized as gold-standard predictive markers in Heart Failure (HF). However, currently ST2 (member of the interleukin 1 receptor family) has emerged as marker of inflammation, fibrosis and cardiac stress. We evaluated ST2 and CRP as prognostic markers in 178 patients with chronic heart failure in comparison with other classical markers such as clinical established parameters but also biological markers: NT-proBNP, hs-cTnT alone or in combination. In multivariate analysis, subsequent addition of ST2 led to age, CRP and ST2 as the only remaining predictors of all-cause mortality (HR 1.03, HR 1.61 and HR 2.75, respectively) as well as of cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.00, HR 2.27 and HR 3.78, respectively). The combined increase of ST2 and CRP was significant for predicting worsened outcomes leading to identify a high risk subgroup that individual assessment of either marker. The same analysis was performed with ST2 in combination with Barcelona score. Overall, our findings extend previous data demonstrating that ST2 in combination with CRP as a valuable tool for identifying patients at risk of death. PMID:27311068

  9. Post-Exercise Heart Rate Recovery Independently Predicts Mortality Risk in Patients with Chronic Heart Failure

    PubMed Central

    Tang, Yi-Da; Dewland, Thomas A.; Wencker, Detlef; Katz, Stuart D.

    2009-01-01

    Background Post-exercise heart rate recovery (HRR) is an index of parasympathetic function associated with clinical outcomes in populations with and without documented coronary heart disease. Decreased parasympathetic activity is thought to be associated with disease progression in chronic heart failure (HF), but an independent association between post-exercise HRR and clinical outcomes among such patients has not been established. Methods and Results We measured HRR (calculated as the difference between heart rate at peak exercise and after 1 minute of recovery) in 202 HF subjects and recorded 17 mortality and 15 urgent transplantation outcome events over 624 days of follow-up. Reduced post-exercise HRR was independently associated with increased event risk after adjusting for other exercise-derived variables (peak oxygen uptake and VE/VCO2 slope), for the Heart Failure Survival Score (adjusted HR 1.09 for one beat/min reduction, 95% CI 1.05-1.13, p<0.0001) and the Seattle Heart Failure Model score (adjusted HR 1.08 for one beat/min reduction, 95% CI 1.05-1.12, p<0.0001). Subjects in the lowest risk tertile based on post-exercise HRR (≥30 beats/min) had low risk of events irrespective of the risk predicted by the survival scores. In a subgroup of 15 subjects, reduced post-exercise HRR was associated with increased serum markers of inflammation (interleukin-6 r=0.58, p=0.024, high sensitivity C-reactive protein r=0.66, p=0.007). Conclusions Post-exercise HRR predicts mortality risk in patients with HF and provides prognostic information independent of previously described survival models. Pathophysiologic links between autonomic function and inflammation may be mediators of this association. PMID:19944361

  10. Postoperative Prostate-Specific Antigen Velocity Independently Predicts for Failure of Salvage Radiotherapy After Prostatectomy

    SciTech Connect

    King, Christopher R. Presti, Joseph C.; Brooks, James D.; Gill, Harcharan; Spiotto, Michael T.

    2008-04-01

    Purpose: Identification of patients most likely to benefit from salvage radiotherapy (RT) using postoperative (postop) prostate-specific antigen (PSA) kinetics. Methods and Materials: From 1984 to 2004, 81 patients who fit the following criteria formed the study population: undetectable PSA after radical prostatectomy (RP); pathologically negative nodes; biochemical relapse defined as a persistently detectable PSA; salvage RT; and two or more postop PSAs available before salvage RT. Salvage RT included the whole pelvic nodes in 55 patients and 4 months of total androgen suppression in 56 patients. The median follow-up was >5 years. All relapses were defined as a persistently detectable PSA. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards multivariable analysis were performed for all clinical, pathological, and treatment factors predicting for biochemical relapse-free survival (bRFS). Results: There were 37 biochemical relapses observed after salvage RT. The 5-year bRFS after salvage RT for patients with postop prostate-specific antigen velocity {<=}1 vs. >1 ng/ml/yr was 59% vs. 29%, p = 0.002. In multivariate analysis, only postop PSAV (p = 0.0036), pre-RT PSA level {<=}1 (p = 0.037) and interval-to-relapse >10 months (p = 0.012) remained significant, whereas pelvic RT, hormone therapy, and RT dose showed a trend (p = {approx}0.06). PSAV, but not prostate-specific antigen doubling time, predicted successful salvage RT, suggesting an association of zero-order kinetics with locally recurrent disease. Conclusions: Postoperative PSA velocity independently predicts for the failure of salvage RT and can be considered in addition to high-risk features when selecting patients in need of systemic therapy following biochemical failure after RP. For well-selected patients, salvage RT can achieve high cure rates.

  11. Neuroendocrine prediction of left ventricular function and heart failure after acute myocardial infarction

    PubMed Central

    Richards, A; Nicholls, M; Yandle, T; Ikram, H; Espiner, E; Turner, J; Buttimore, R; Lainchbury, J; Elliott, J; Frampton, C; Crozier, I; Smyth, D

    1999-01-01

    Objective—To determine the relations of plasma levels of brain natriuretic peptide (BNP), atrial natriuretic factor (ANF), N-terminal ANF (N-ANF), cyclic guanosine monophosphate (cGMP; the cardiac peptide second messenger), and plasma catecholamines to left ventricular function and to prognosis in patients admitted with acute myocardial infarction.
Design—Plasma hormones and ventricular function (radionuclide ventriculography) were measured 1-4 days after myocardial infarction in 220 patients admitted to a single coronary care unit. Radionuclide scanning was repeated 3-5 months after infarction. Clinical events were recorded over a mean period of 14 months.
Results—Both early and late left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) were most closely related to plasma BNP (r = −0.60, n = 220, p < 0.001; and r = −0.53, n = 192, p < 0.001, respectively), followed by ANF, N-ANF, cGMP, and the plasma catecholamines. Early plasma BNP concentrations less than twofold the upper limit of normal (20 pmol/l) had 100% negative predictive value for LVEF < 40% at 3-5 months after infarction. In multivariate analysis incorporating all the neurohormonal factors, only BNP remained independently predictive of LVEF < 40% (p < 0.005). Survival analysis by median levels of candidate predictors identified BNP as the most powerful discriminator for death (p < 0.0001). No early deaths (within 4 months) occurred in patients with plasma BNP concentrations below the group median (27 pmol/l), and over follow up only three of 26 deaths occurred in this subgroup. Of all episodes of left ventricular failure, 85% occurred in patients with plasma BNP above the median (p < 0.001). In multivariate analyses, BNP alone gave additional predictive information beyond sex, age, clinical history, LVEF, and plasma noradrenaline for both subsequent onset of LVF and death.
Conclusions—Plasma BNP measured within 1-4 days of acute myocardial infarction is a powerful

  12. Predictions and Experimental Microstructural Characterization of High Strain Rate Failure Modes in Layered Aluminum Composites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khanikar, Prasenjit

    Different aluminum alloys can be combined, as composites, for tailored dynamic applications. Most investigations pertaining to metallic alloy layered composites, however, have been based on quasi-static approaches. The dynamic failure of layered metallic composites, therefore, needs to be characterized in terms of strength, toughness, and fracture response. A dislocation-density based crystalline plasticity formulation, finite-element techniques, rational crystallographic orientation relations and a new fracture methodology were used to predict the failure modes associated with the high strain rate behavior of aluminum layered composites. Two alloy layers, a high strength alloy, aluminum 2195, and an aluminum alloy 2139, with high toughness, were modeled with representative microstructures that included precipitates, dispersed particles, and different grain boundary (GB) distributions. The new fracture methodology, based on an overlap method and phantom nodes, is used with a fracture criteria specialized for fracture on different cleavage planes. One of the objectives of this investigation, therefore, was to determine the optimal arrangements of the 2139 and 2195 aluminum alloys for a metallic layered composite that would combine strength, toughness and fracture resistance for high strain-rate applications. Different layer arrangements were investigated for high strain-rate applications, and the optimal arrangement was with the high toughness 2139 layer on the bottom, which provided extensive shear strain localization, and the high strength 2195 layer on the top for high strength resistance. The layer thickness of the bottom high toughness layer also affected the bending behavior of the roll-boned interface and the potential delamination of the layers. Shear strain localization, dynamic cracking and delamination were the mutually competing failure mechanisms for the layered metallic composite, and control of these failure modes can be optimized for high strain

  13. The second Sandia Fracture Challenge. Predictions of ductile failure under quasi-static and moderate-rate dynamic loading

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Boyce, B. L.; Kramer, S. L. B.; Bosiljevac, T. R.; Corona, E.; Moore, J. A.; Elkhodary, K.; Simha, C. H. M.; Williams, B. W.; Cerrone, A. R.; Nonn, A.; et al

    2016-03-14

    Ductile failure of structural metals is relevant to a wide range of engineering scenarios. Computational methods are employed to anticipate the critical conditions of failure, yet they sometimes provide inaccurate and misleading predictions. Challenge scenarios, such as the one presented in the current work, provide an opportunity to assess the blind, quantitative predictive ability of simulation methods against a previously unseen failure problem. Instead of evaluating the predictions of a single simulation approach, the Sandia Fracture Challenge relied on numerous volunteer teams with expertise in computational mechanics to apply a broad range of computational methods, numerical algorithms, and constitutive modelsmore » to the challenge. This exercise is intended to evaluate the state of health of technologies available for failure prediction. In the first Sandia Fracture Challenge, a wide range of issues were raised in ductile failure modeling, including a lack of consistency in failure models, the importance of shear calibration data, and difficulties in quantifying the uncertainty of prediction [see Boyce et al. (Int J Fract 186:5–68, 2014) for details of these observations]. This second Sandia Fracture Challenge investigated the ductile rupture of a Ti–6Al–4V sheet under both quasi-static and modest-rate dynamic loading (failure in ~ 0.1 s). Like the previous challenge, the sheet had an unusual arrangement of notches and holes that added geometric complexity and fostered a competition between tensile- and shear-dominated failure modes. The teams were asked to predict the fracture path and quantitative far-field failure metrics such as the peak force and displacement to cause crack initiation. Fourteen teams contributed blind predictions, and the experimental outcomes were quantified in three independent test labs. In addition, shortcomings were revealed in this second challenge such as inconsistency in the application of appropriate boundary

  14. Pro: early extubation in the operating room following cardiac surgery in adults.

    PubMed

    Singh, Karen E; Baum, Victor C

    2012-12-01

    There is growing evidence that the general current approach in many centers of continued mechanical ventilation following cardiac surgery has evolved through historical experience rather than having a strong physiological basis in current practice. There is evidence going back several decades supporting very early (in the operating room [OR]) extubation in pediatric cardiac anesthesia. The authors provide evidence from numerous sources showing that extubation in the OR or shortly after arrival in the ICU is safe and cost-effective and is not prevented by the type of cardiac surgery or the use of cardiopulmonary bypass. They query if the paradigm should not be reversed and very early extubation be the routine unless contraindicated. Like any anesthetic technique, appropriate patient selection is called for, but this technique is widely appropriate. PMID:22798230

  15. Model for end-stage liver disease predicts right ventricular failure in patients with left ventricular assist devices.

    PubMed

    Yost, Gardner L; Coyle, Laura; Bhat, Geetha; Tatooles, Antone J

    2016-03-01

    High rates of right ventricular failure continue to affect postoperative outcomes in patients implanted with left ventricular assist devices (LVADs). Development of right ventricular failure and implantation with right ventricular assist devices is known to be associated with significantly increased mortality. The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score is an effective means of evaluating liver dysfunction. We investigated the prognostic utility of postoperative MELD on post-LVAD implantation outcomes. MELD scores, demographic data, and outcomes including length of stay, survival, and postoperative right ventricular failure were collected for 256 patients implanted with continuous flow LVADs. Regression and Kaplan-Meier analyses were used to investigate the relationship between MELD and all outcomes. Increased MELD score was found to be an independent predictor of both right heart failure and necessity for RVAD implantation (OR 1.097, CI 1.040-1.158, p = 0.001; OR 1.121, CI 1.015, p = 0.024, respectively). Patients with RV failure and who underwent RVAD implantation had reduced postoperative survival compared to patients with RV dysfunction (no RV failure = 651.4 ± 609.8 days, RV failure = 392.6 ± 444.8 days, RVAD = 89.3 ± 72.8 days; p < 0.001). In conclusion, MELD can be used to reliably predict postoperative right heart failure and the necessity for RVAD implantation. Those patients with RV failure and RVADs experience significantly increased postoperative mortality compared to those without RV dysfunction. PMID:26187243

  16. Predictive Values of Red Blood Cell Distribution Width in Assessing Severity of Chronic Heart Failure.

    PubMed

    Liu, Sen; Wang, Ping; Shen, Ping-Ping; Zhou, Jian-Hua

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND This retrospective study was performed to evaluate the value of baseline red blood cell distribution width (RDW) for predicting the severity of chronic heart failure (CHF) compared with N-terminal prohormone brain natriuretic peptide (NT-ProBNP) and other hematological and biochemical parameters. MATERIAL AND METHODS Hematological and biochemical parameters were obtained from 179 patients with New York Heart Association (NYHA) CHF class I (n=44), II (n=39), III (n=41), and IV (n=55). Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves were used for assessing predictive values. RESULTS RDW increased significantly in class III and IV compared with class I (14.3±2.3% and 14.3±1.7% vs. 12.9±0.8%, P<0.01). Areas under ROCs (AUCs) of RDW and NT-ProBNP for class IV HF were 0.817 and 0.840, respectively. RDW was markedly elevated in the mortality group compared with the survival group (13.7±1.7 vs. 15.8±1.8, P<0.01). The predictive value of RDW was lower than that of NT-ProBNP but was comparable to white blood cell (WBC), neutrophil (NEU), lymphocyte (L), and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (N/L) for mortality during hospitalization, with AUCs of 0.837, 0.939, 0.858, 0.891, 0.885, and 0.885, respectively. RDW and NT-proBNP showed low predictive values for repeated admission (≥3). RDW was an independent risk factor for mortality (OR=2.531, 95% CI: 1.371-4.671). CONCLUSIONS RDW increased significantly in class III and IV patients and in the mortality group. The predictive value of RDW is comparable to NT-proBNP for class IV and lower than that of NT-proBNP for mortality. Elevated RDW is an independent risk factor for mortality. PMID:27324271

  17. The EST Model for Predicting Progressive Damage and Failure of Open Hole Bending Specimens

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Joseph, Ashith P. K.; Waas, Anthony M.; Pineda, Evan J.

    2016-01-01

    Progressive damage and failure in open hole composite laminate coupons subjected to flexural loading is modeled using Enhanced Schapery Theory (EST). Previous studies have demonstrated that EST can accurately predict the strength of open hole coupons under remote tensile and compressive loading states. This homogenized modeling approach uses single composite shell elements to represent the entire laminate in the thickness direction and significantly reduces computational cost. Therefore, when delaminations are not of concern or are active in the post-peak regime, the version of EST presented here is a good engineering tool for predicting deformation response. Standard coupon level tests provides all the input data needed for the model and they are interpreted in conjunction with finite element (FE) based simulations. Open hole bending test results of three different IM7/8552 carbon fiber composite layups agree well with EST predictions. The model is able to accurately capture the curvature change and deformation localization in the specimen at and during the post catastrophic load drop event.

  18. Predicting success or failure of brace treatment for adolescents with idiopathic scoliosis.

    PubMed

    Chalmers, Eric; Westover, Lindsey; Jacob, Johith; Donauer, Andreas; Zhao, Vicky H; Parent, Eric C; Moreau, Marc J; Mahood, James K; Hedden, Douglas M; Lou, Edmond H M

    2015-10-01

    Adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) is a three-dimensional spinal deformity. Brace treatment is a common non-surgical treatment, intended to prevent progression (worsening) of the condition during adolescence. Estimating a braced patient's risk of progression is an essential part of planning treatment, so method for predicting this risk would be a useful decision support tool for practitioners. This work attempts to discover whether failure of brace treatment (progression) can be predicted at the start of treatment. Records were obtained for 62 AIS patients who had completed brace treatment. Subjects were labeled as "progressive" if their condition had progressed despite brace treatment and "non-progressive" otherwise. Wrapper-based feature selection selected two useful predictor variables from a list of 14 clinical measurements taken from the records. A logistic regression model was trained to classify patients as "progressive" or "non-progressive" using these two variables. The logistic regression model's simplicity and interpretability should facilitate its clinical acceptance. The model was tested on data from an additional 28 patients and found to be 75 % accurate. This accuracy is sufficient to make the predictions clinically useful. It can be used online: http://www.ece.ualberta.ca/~dchalmer/SimpleBracePredictor.html . PMID:26002592

  19. Predicting mortality in patients with acute heart failure: Role of risk scores

    PubMed Central

    Passantino, Andrea; Monitillo, Francesco; Iacoviello, Massimo; Scrutinio, Domenico

    2015-01-01

    Acute heart failure is a leading cause of hospitalization and death, and it is an increasing burden on health care systems. The correct risk stratification of patients could improve clinical outcome and resources allocation, avoiding the overtreatment of low-risk subjects or the early, inappropriate discharge of high-risk patients. Many clinical scores have been derived and validated for in-hospital and post-discharge survival; predictive models include demographic, clinical, hemodynamic and laboratory variables. Data sets are derived from public registries, clinical trials, and retrospective data. Most models show a good capacity to discriminate patients who reach major clinical end-points, with C-indices generally higher than 0.70, but their applicability in real-world populations has been seldom evaluated. No study has evaluated if the use of risk score-based stratification might improve patient outcome. Some variables (age, blood pressure, sodium concentration, renal function) recur in most scores and should always be considered when evaluating the risk of an individual patient hospitalized for acute heart failure. Future studies will evaluate the emerging role of plasma biomarkers. PMID:26730296

  20. Failure Predictions for VHTR Core Components using a Probabilistic Contiuum Damage Mechanics Model

    SciTech Connect

    Fok, Alex

    2013-10-30

    The proposed work addresses the key research need for the development of constitutive models and overall failure models for graphite and high temperature structural materials, with the long-term goal being to maximize the design life of the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP). To this end, the capability of a Continuum Damage Mechanics (CDM) model, which has been used successfully for modeling fracture of virgin graphite, will be extended as a predictive and design tool for the core components of the very high- temperature reactor (VHTR). Specifically, irradiation and environmental effects pertinent to the VHTR will be incorporated into the model to allow fracture of graphite and ceramic components under in-reactor conditions to be modeled explicitly using the finite element method. The model uses a combined stress-based and fracture mechanics-based failure criterion, so it can simulate both the initiation and propagation of cracks. Modern imaging techniques, such as x-ray computed tomography and digital image correlation, will be used during material testing to help define the baseline material damage parameters. Monte Carlo analysis will be performed to address inherent variations in material properties, the aim being to reduce the arbitrariness and uncertainties associated with the current statistical approach. The results can potentially contribute to the current development of American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) codes for the design and construction of VHTR core components.

  1. A state-based approach to trend recognition and failure prediction for the Space Station Freedom

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nelson, Kyle S.; Hadden, George D.

    1992-01-01

    A state-based reasoning approach to trend recognition and failure prediction for the Altitude Determination, and Control System (ADCS) of the Space Station Freedom (SSF) is described. The problem domain is characterized by features (e.g., trends and impending failures) that develop over a variety of time spans, anywhere from several minutes to several years. Our state-based reasoning approach, coupled with intelligent data screening, allows features to be tracked as they develop in a time-dependent manner. That is, each state machine has the ability to encode a time frame for the feature it detects. As features are detected, they are recorded and can be used as input to other state machines, creating a hierarchical feature recognition scheme. Furthermore, each machine can operate independently of the others, allowing simultaneous tracking of features. State-based reasoning was implemented in the trend recognition and the prognostic modules of a prototype Space Station Freedom Maintenance and Diagnostic System (SSFMDS) developed at Honeywell's Systems and Research Center.

  2. Perineural invasion on prostate needle biopsy does not predict biochemical failure following brachytherapy for prostate cancer

    SciTech Connect

    Weight, Christopher J.; Ciezki, Jay P.; Reddy, Chandana A.; Zhou Ming; Klein, Eric A.

    2006-06-01

    Purpose: To determine if the presence of perineural invasion (PNI) predicts biochemical recurrence in patients who underwent low-dose-rate brachytherapy for the treatment of localized prostate cancer. Methods and Materials: A retrospective case control matching study was performed. The records of 651 patients treated with brachytherapy between 1996 and 2003 were reviewed. Sixty-three of these patients developed biochemical failure. These sixty-three patients were then matched in a one-to-one ratio to patients without biochemical failure, controlling for biopsy Gleason score, clinical stage, initial prostate-specific antigen, age, and the use of androgen deprivation. The pathology of the entire cohort was then reviewed for evidence of perineural invasion on initial prostate biopsy specimens. The biochemical relapse free survival rates for these two groups were compared. Results: Cases and controls were well matched, and there were no significant differences between the two groups in age, Gleason grade, clinical stage, initial prostate-specific antigen, and the use of androgen deprivation. PNI was found in 19 (17%) patients. There was no significant difference in the rates of PNI between cases and controls, 19.6% and 14.3% respectively (p 0.45). PNI did not correlate with biochemical relapse free survival (p 0.40). Conclusion: Perineural invasion is not a significant predictor of biochemical recurrence in patients undergoing brachytherapy for prostate cancer.

  3. Prediction of reliability on thermoelectric module through accelerated life test and Physics-of-failure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, Hyoung-Seuk; Seo, Won-Seon; Choi, Duck-Kyun

    2011-09-01

    Thermoelectric cooling module (TEM) which is electric device has a mechanical stress because of temperature gradient in itself. It means that structure of TEM is vulnerable in an aspect of reliability but research on reliability of TEM was not performed a lot. Recently, the more the utilization of thermoelectric cooling devices grows, the more the needs for life prediction and improvement are increasing. In this paper, we investigated life distribution, shape parameter of the TEM through accelerated life test (ALT). And we discussed about how to enhance life of TEM through the Physics-of-failure. Experimental results of ALT showed that the thermoelectric cooling module follows the Weibull distribution, shape parameter of which is 3.6. The acceleration model is coffin Coffin-Manson and material constant is 1.8.

  4. Failure Mechanisms and Life Prediction of Thermal and Environmental Barrier Coatings under Thermal Gradients

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zju, Dongming; Ghosn, Louis J.; Miller, Robert A.

    2008-01-01

    Ceramic thermal and environmental barrier coatings (TEBCs) will play an increasingly important role in gas turbine engines because of their ability to further raise engine temperatures. However, the issue of coating durability is of major concern under high-heat-flux conditions. In particular, the accelerated coating delamination crack growth under the engine high heat-flux conditions is not well understood. In this paper, a laser heat flux technique is used to investigate the coating delamination crack propagation under realistic temperature-stress gradients and thermal cyclic conditions. The coating delamination mechanisms are investigated under various thermal loading conditions, and are correlated with coating dynamic fatigue, sintering and interfacial adhesion test results. A coating life prediction framework may be realized by examining the crack initiation and propagation driving forces for coating failure under high-heat-flux test conditions.

  5. Predicting treatment failure in severe sepsis and septic shock: looking for the Holy Grail

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Procalcitonin has been proposed as a specific biomarker of bacterial infections and has been related to the severity of sepsis. The prognostic ability of the initial concentrations of procalcitonin in sepsis is controversial. Some studies find higher initial concentrations in non-survivors but others find no differences. Prognostic assessment based on follow-up of procalcitonin levels may be better than evaluation of the initial levels of procalcitonin. The persistence of elevated procalcitonin levels is indicative of poor prognosis and is associated with mortality. Procalcitonin kinetics could be a tool for assessing the evolution of severe sepsis and sepsis shock. Procalcitonin should find its place as a biomarker for predicting treatment failure of severe sepsis and septic shock. PMID:24004571

  6. Improved measurement of soil moisture using an ultrasonic waveguide to predict rainfall-induced slope failure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tanaka, Katsuhiko; Hiraoka, Nobutaka; Nakano, Shunya; Kameda, Takuma; Fujimoto, Masamitsu; Fukagawa, Ryoichi

    2015-10-01

    Field monitoring of soil moisture and groundwater level is important to predict shallow slope failure stemming from heavy rainfall. We previously proposed a monitoring technique using ultrasonic waveguides in which soil moisture and groundwater levels are monitored on the basis of the intensity and propagation time of ultrasonic waves reflected from the underground soil surface, respectively. In field monitoring, the reflective intensity depends on the depth of monitoring points and the inhomogeneity of grains, so it has been difficult to examine the reflective intensity change quantitatively. In the present work, we propose improvements that will allow us to measure the intensity change quantitatively. Specifically, we utilize an ultrasonic waveguide of a constant length by using casing pipes with different lengths depending on the monitoring depth and cover the surface of coarse-grained soil with a homogeneous fine soil to obtain repeatable data for wetting and drying cycles. The positive effects of these improvements were confirmed by a field monitoring test.

  7. A co-training-based approach for prediction of remaining useful life utilizing both failure and suspension data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Chao; Youn, Byeng D.; Kim, Taejin; Wang, Pingfeng

    2015-10-01

    Traditional data-driven prognostics often requires some amount of failure data for the offline training in order to achieve good accuracy for the online prediction. Failure data refer to condition monitoring data collected from the very beginning of an engineered system's lifetime till the occurrence of its failure. However, in many engineered systems, failure data are fairly expensive and time-consuming to obtain while suspension data are readily available. Suspension data refer to condition monitoring data acquired from the very beginning of an engineered system's lifetime till planned inspection or maintenance when the system is taken out of service. In such cases, it becomes essentially critical to utilize suspension data which may carry rich information regarding the degradation trend and help achieve more accurate remaining useful life (RUL) prediction. To this end, this paper proposes a co-training-based data-driven prognostic approach, denoted by COPROG, which uses two data-driven algorithms with each predicting RULs of suspension units for the other. After a suspension unit is chosen and its RUL is predicted by an individual algorithm, it becomes a virtual failure unit that is added to the training data set of the other individual algorithm. Results obtained from two case studies suggest that COPROG gives more accurate RUL prediction, as compared to any individual algorithm with no use of suspension data, and that COPROG can effectively exploit suspension data to improve the prognostic accuracy.

  8. Failure behavior of internally pressurized flawed and unflawed steam generator tubing at high temperatures -- Experiments and comparison with model predictions

    SciTech Connect

    Majumdar, S.; Shack, W.J.; Diercks, D.R.; Mruk, K.; Franklin, J.; Knoblich, L.

    1998-03-01

    This report summarizes experimental work performed at Argonne National Laboratory on the failure of internally pressurized steam generator tubing at high temperatures ({le} 700 C). A model was developed for predicting failure of flawed and unflawed steam generator tubes under internal pressure and temperature histories postulated to occur during severe accidents. The model was validated by failure tests on specimens with part-through-wall axial and circumferential flaws of various lengths and depths, conducted under various constant and ramped internal pressure and temperature conditions. The failure temperatures predicted by the model for two temperature and pressure histories, calculated for severe accidents initiated by a station blackout, agree very well with tests performed on both flawed and unflawed specimens.

  9. High-Sensitivity C-Reactive Protein Predicts Mortality and Technique Failure in Peritoneal Dialysis Patients

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Shou-Hsuan; Li, Yi-Jung; Wu, Hsin-Hsu; Lee, Cheng-Chia; Lin, Chan-Yu; Weng, Cheng-Hao; Chen, Yung-Chang; Chang, Ming-Yang; Hsu, Hsiang-Hao; Fang, Ji-Tseng; Hung, Cheng-Chieh; Yang, Chih-Wei; Tian, Ya-Chung

    2014-01-01

    Introduction An elevated level of serum C-reactive protein (CRP) is widely considered an indicator of an underlying inflammatory disease and a long-term prognostic predictor for dialysis patients. This cross-sectional cohort study was designed to assess the correlation between the level of high-sensitivity CRP (HS-CRP) and the outcome of peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients. Methods A total of 402 patients were stratified into 3 tertiles (lower, middle, upper) according to serum HS-CRP level and and followed up from October 2009 to September 2011. During follow-up, cardiovascular events, infection episodes, technique failure, and mortality rate were recorded. Results During the 24-month follow-up, 119 of 402 patients (29.6%) dropped out from PD, including 28 patients (7.0%) who died, 81 patients (20.1%) who switched to hemodialysis, and 10 patients (2.5%) who underwent kidney transplantation. The results of Kaplan–Meier analysis and log-rank test demonstrated a significant difference in the cumulative patient survival rate across the 3 tertiles (the lowest rate in upper tertile). On multivariate Cox regression analysis, only higher HS-CRP level, older age, the presence of diabetes mellitus (DM), lower serum albumin level, and the occurrence of cardiovascular events during follow-up were identified as independent predictors of mortality. Every 1 mg/L increase in HS-CRP level was independently predictive of a 1.4% increase in mortality. Multivariate Cox regression analysis also showed that higher HS-CRP level, the presence of DM, lower hemoglobin level, lower serum albumin level, higher dialysate/plasma creatinine ratio, and the occurrence of infective episodes and cardiovascular events during follow-up were independent predictors of technique failure. Conclusions The present study shows the importance of HS-CRP in the prediction of 2-year mortality and technique survival in PD patients independent of age, diabetes, hypoalbuminemia, and the occurrence of

  10. Predicting outcomes among patients with atrial fibrillation and heart failure receiving anticoagulation with warfarin.

    PubMed

    Kim, Eun-Jeong; Ozonoff, Al; Hylek, Elaine M; Berlowitz, Dan R; Ash, Aelene S; Miller, Donald R; Zhao, Shibei; Reisman, Joel I; Jasuja, Guneet K; Rose, Adam J

    2015-07-01

    Among patients receiving oral anticoagulation for atrial fibrillation (AF), heart failure (HF) is associated with poor anticoagulation control. However, it is not known which patients with heart failure are at greatest risk of adverse outcomes. We evaluated 62,156 Veterans Health Administration (VA) patients receiving warfarin for AF between 10/1/06-9/30/08 using merged VA-Medicare dataset. We predicted time in therapeutic range (TTR) and rates of adverse events by categorising patients into those with 0, 1, 2, or 3+ of five putative markers of HF severity such as aspartate aminotransferase (AST)> 80 U/l, alkaline phosphatase> 150 U/l, serum sodium< 130 mEq/l, any receipt of metolazone, and any inpatient admission for HF exacerbation. These risk categories predicted TTR: patients without HF (referent) had a mean TTR of 65.0 %, while HF patients with 0, 1, 2, 3 or more markers had mean TTRs of 62.2 %, 57.2 %, 53.5 %, and 50.7 %, respectively (p< 0.001). These categories also discriminated for major haemorrhage well; compared to patients without HF, HF patients with increasing severity had hazard ratios of 1.84, 3.06, 3.52 and 5.14 respectively (p< 0.001). However, although patients with HF had an elevated hazard for bleeding compared to those without HF, these categories did not effectively discriminate risk of ischaemic stroke across HF. In conclusion, we developed a HF severity model using easily available clinical characteristics that performed well to risk-stratify patients with HF who are receiving anticoagulation for AF with regard to major haemorrhage. PMID:25948532

  11. Incremental and independent value of cardiopulmonary exercise test measures and the Seattle Heart Failure Model for prediction of risk in patients with heart failure

    PubMed Central

    Dardas, Todd; Li, Yanhong; Reed, Shelby D.; O’Connor, Christopher M.; Whellan, David J.; Ellis, Stephen J.; Schulman, Kevin A.; Kraus, William E.; Forman, Daniel E.; Levy, Wayne C.

    2016-01-01

    Background Multivariable risk scores and exercise measures are well-validated risk prediction methods. Combining information from a functional evaluation and a risk model may improve accuracy of risk predictions. We analyzed whether adding exercise measures to the Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) improves risk prediction accuracy in systolic heart failure. Methods and Results We used a sample of patients from the Heart Failure and A Controlled Trial Investigating Outcomes of Exercise TraiNing (HF-ACTION) study to examine the addition of peak VO2, VE/VCO2 slope, 6-minute walk distance (6MWD) or exercise duration (CPXDUR) to the SHFM. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to test the association between the combined endpoint (death, LVAD or cardiac transplantation) and the addition of exercise variables to the SHFM. 2152 patients were included in the sample. The SHFM and all exercise measures were associated with events (all p-values<0.0001) in proportional hazards models. There was statistically significant improvement in risk estimation when exercise measures were added to the SHFM. However, the improvement in c-index for addition of peak VO2 (+0.01), VE/VCO2 (+0.02), 6MWD (−0.001) and CPXDUR (+0.001) to the SHFM was small or slightly worse than the SHFM alone. Changes in risk assignment with the addition of exercise variables were minimal for patients above or below a15% 1-year mortality. Conclusions Exercise performance measures and the SHFM are independently useful for predicting risk in systolic heart failure. Adding CPET measures and 6MWD to the SHFM offers only minimal improvement in risk reassignment at clinically meaningful cutpoints. PMID:25940075

  12. Could "safe practice" be compromising safe practice? Should anesthetists have to deflate the cuff of the endotracheal tube before extubation?

    PubMed

    Priebe, Hans-Joachim

    2016-02-01

    Deflation of the cuff of the endotracheal tube (ETT) before tracheal extubation is considered mandatory and safe practice. However, there are potential shortcomings associated with this practice (e.g., aspiration around the uncuffed ETT, loss of positive airway pressure, difficulty in generating an effective cough at the time of extubation). By contrast, keeping the cuff inflated during extubation will minimize the risk of tracheal aspiration around the ETT, and it will reliably allow maintenance of positive airway pressure until extubation, effective lung recruitment before extubation, and generation of an effective cough during extubation. All of these factors might reduce the overall risk of immediate postextubation and postoperative respiratory and pulmonary complications. Mandatory monitoring of cuff pressure ensures a remaining rather small, highly compressible cuff volume around the ETT which is unlikely to carry per se the risk of producing laryngeal trauma. In my view, as the overall advantages of not deflating the cuff before extubation outweigh the disadvantages, anesthetists should not have to deflate the cuff of the ETT before extubation. Ultimately, only a randomized controlled trial will be able to assess the effect of such practice on patient outcome. PMID:26126979

  13. Strength Evaluation and Failure Prediction of Short Carbon Fiber Reinforced Nylon Spur Gears by Finite Element Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Zhong; Hossan, Mohammad Robiul

    2013-06-01

    In this paper, short carbon fiber reinforced nylon spur gear pairs, and steel and unreinforced nylon spur gear pairs have been selected for study and comparison. A 3D finite element model was developed to simulate the multi-axial stress-strain behaviors of the gear tooth. Failure prediction has been conducted based on the different failure criteria, including Tsai-Wu criterion. The tooth roots, where has stress concentration and the potential for failure, have been carefully investigated. The modeling results show that the short carbon fiber reinforced nylon gear fabricated by properly controlled injection molding processes can provide higher strength and better performance.

  14. The failure analysis and lifetime prediction for the solder joint of the magnetic head

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiao, Xianghui; Peng, Minfang; Cardoso, Jaime S.; Tang, Rongjun; Zhou, YingLiang

    2015-02-01

    Micro-solder joint (MSJ) lifetime prediction methodology and failure analysis (FA) are to assess reliability by fatigue model with a series of theoretical calculations, numerical simulation and experimental method. Due to shortened time of solder joints on high-temperature, high-frequency sampling error that is not allowed in productions may exist in various models, including round-off error. Combining intermetallic compound (IMC) growth theory and the FA technology for the magnetic head in actual production, this thesis puts forward a new growth model to predict life expectancy for solder joint of the magnetic head. And the impact of IMC, generating from interface reaction between slider (magnetic head, usually be called slider) and bonding pad, on mechanical performance during aging process is analyzed in it. By further researching on FA of solder ball bonding, thesis chooses AuSn4 growth model that affects least to solder joint mechanical property to indicate that the IMC methodology is suitable to forecast the solder lifetime. And the diffusion constant under work condition 60 °C is 0.015354; the solder lifetime t is 14.46 years.

  15. Long-term Failure Prediction based on an ARP Model of Global Risk Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Xin; Moussawi, Alaa; Szymanski, Boleslaw; Korniss, Gyorgy

    Risks that threaten modern societies form an intricately interconnected network. Hence, it is important to understand how risk materializations in distinct domains influence each other. In the paper, we study the global risks network defined by World Economic Forum experts in the form of Stochastic Block Model. We model risks as Alternating Renewal Processes with variable intensities driven by hidden values of exogenous and endogenous failure probabilities. Based on the expert assessments and historical status of each risk, we use Maximum Likelihood Evaluation to find the optimal model parameters and demonstrate that the model considering network effects significantly outperforms the others. In the talk, we discuss how the model can be used to provide quantitative means for measuring interdependencies and materialization of risks in the network. We also present recent results of long-term predictions in the form of predicated distributions of materializations over various time periods. Finally we show how the simulation of ARP's enables us to probe limits of the predictability of the system parameters from historical data and ability to recover hidden variable. Supported in part by DTRA, ARL NS-CTA.

  16. Life Prediction and Classification of Failure Modes in Solid State Luminaires Using Bayesian Probabilistic Models

    SciTech Connect

    Lall, Pradeep; Wei, Junchao; Sakalaukus, Peter

    2014-05-27

    A new method has been developed for assessment of the onset of degradation in solid state luminaires to classify failure mechanisms by using metrics beyond lumen degradation that are currently used for identification of failure. Luminous Flux output, Correlated Color Temperature Data on Philips LED Lamps has been gathered under 85°C/85%RH till lamp failure. The acquired data has been used in conjunction with Bayesian Probabilistic Models to identify luminaires with onset of degradation much prior to failure through identification of decision boundaries between lamps with accrued damage and lamps beyond the failure threshold in the feature space. In addition luminaires with different failure modes have been classified separately from healthy pristine luminaires. It is expected that, the new test technique will allow the development of failure distributions without testing till L70 life for the manifestation of failure.

  17. A Comprehensive Method for Predicting Fatal Liver Failure of Patients With Liver Cancer Resection

    PubMed Central

    Li, Jiangfa; Lei, Biao; Nie, Xingju; Lin, Linku; Tahir, Syed Abdul; Shi, Wuxiang; Jin, Junfei; He, Songqing

    2015-01-01

    Abstract There are many methods to assess liver function, but none of them has been verified as fully effective. The purpose of this study is to establish a comprehensive method evaluating perioperative liver reserve function (LRF) in patients with primary liver cancer (PLC). In this study, 310 PLC patients who underwent liver resection were included. The cohort was divided into a training set (n = 235) and a validation set (n = 75). The factors affecting postoperative liver dysfunction (POLD) during preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative periods were confirmed by logistic regression analysis. The equation for calculating the preoperative liver functional evaluation index (PLFEI) was established; the cutoff value of PLFEI determined through analysis by receiver-operating characteristic curve was used to predict postoperative liver function. The data showed that body mass index, international normalized ratio, indocyanine green (ICG) retention rate at 15 minutes (ICGR15), ICG elimination rate, standard remnant liver volume (SRLV), operative bleeding volume (OBV), blood transfusion volume, and operative time were statistically different (all P < 0.05) between 2 groups of patients with and without POLD. The relationship among PLFEI, ICGR15, OBV, and SRLV is expressed as an equation of “PLFEI = 0.181 × ICGR15 + 0.001 × OBV − 0.008 × SRLV.” The cutoff value of PLFEI to predict POLD was −2.16 whose sensitivity and specificity were 90.3% and 73.5%, respectively. However, when predicting fatal liver failure (FLF), the cutoff value of PLFEI was switched to −1.97 whose sensitivity and specificity were 100% and 68.8%, respectively. PLFEI will be a more comprehensive, sensitive, and accurate index assessing perioperative LRF in liver cancer patients who receive liver resection. And keeping PLFEI <−1.97 is a safety margin for preventing FLF in PLC patients who underwent liver resection. PMID:25929924

  18. Reduced Cognitive Function Predicts Functional Decline in Patients with Heart Failure over 12 months

    PubMed Central

    Alosco, Michael L.; Spitznagel, Mary Beth; Cohen, Ronald; Sweet, Lawrence H.; Colbert, Lisa H.; Josephson, Richard; Hughes, Joel; Rosneck, Jim; Gunstad, John

    2016-01-01

    Background Impaired activities of daily living (ADL) are common in heart failure (HF) patients and contribute to the elevated mortality and hospitalization rates in this population. Cognitive impairment is also prevalent in HF, though its ability to predict functional decline over time is unknown. Aims This study examined the longitudinal pattern of activities of daily living in HF persons and whether reduced baseline cognitive status predicts functional decline in this population. Methods 110 persons with HF completed the Lawton-Brody Activities of Daily Living Scale and were administered the Modified Mini-Mental Status Examination (3MS) at baseline and a 12-month follow-up. Three composite scores were derived from the Lawton-Brody, including total, instrumental, and basic ADLs. Results HF patients reported high rates of baseline impairments in instrumental ADLs, including shopping, food preparation, housekeeping duties, laundry, among others. Repeated measures analyses showed significant declines in total and instrumental ADLs from baseline to the 12-month follow-up in HF (p < .05). Hierarchical regression analyses showed that poorer baseline performance on the 3MS predicted worse total ADL performance at 12-months (β = .15, p = .049), including greater dependence in shopping, driving, feeding, and physical ambulation (p < .05 for all). Conclusion The current results show that HF patients report significant functional decline over a 12-month period and brief cognitive tests can identify those patients at highest risk for decline. If replicated, such findings encourage the use of cognitive screening measures to identify HF patients most likely to require assistance with ADL tasks. PMID:23754840

  19. Serum microRNA expression patterns that predict early treatment failure in prostate cancer patients

    PubMed Central

    Singh, Prashant K.; Preus, Leah; Hu, Qiang; Yan, Li; Long, Mark D.; Morrison, Carl D.; Nesline, Mary; Johnson, Candace S.; Koochekpour, Shahriar; Kohli, Manish; Liu, Song; Trump, Donald L.

    2014-01-01

    We aimed to identify microRNA (miRNA) expression patterns in the serum of prostate cancer (CaP) patients that predict the risk of early treatment failure following radical prostatectomy (RP). Microarray and Q-RT-PCR analyses identified 43 miRNAs as differentiating disease stages within 14 prostate cell lines and reflectedpublically available patient data. 34 of these miRNA were detectable in the serum of CaP patients. Association with time to biochemical progression was examined in a cohort of CaP patients following RP. A greater than two-fold increase in hazard of biochemical progression associated with altered expression of miR-103, miR-125b and miR-222 (p <.0008) in the serum of CaP patients. Prediction models based on penalized regression analyses showed that the levels of the miRNAs and PSA together were better at detecting false positives than models without miRNAs, for similar level of sensitivity. Analyses of publically available data revealed significant and reciprocal relationships between changes in CpG methylation and miRNA expression patterns suggesting a role for CpG methylation to regulate miRNA. Exploratory validation supported roles for miR-222 and miR-125b to predict progression risk in CaP. The current study established that expression patterns of serum-detectable miRNAs taken at the time of RP are prognostic for men who are at risk of experiencing subsequent early biochemical progression. These non-invasive approaches could be used to augment treatment decisions. PMID:24583788

  20. Systemic Inflammatory Response and Serum Lipopolysaccharide Levels Predict Multiple Organ Failure and Death in Alcoholic Hepatitis

    PubMed Central

    Michelena, Javier; Altamirano, José; Abraldes, Juan G.; Affò, Silvia; Morales-Ibanez, Oriol; Sancho-Bru, Pau; Dominguez, Marlene; García-Pagán, Juan Carlos; Fernández, Javier; Arroyo, Vicente; Ginès, Pere; Louvet, Alexandre; Mathurin, Philippe; Mehal, Wajahat Z.; Caballería, Juan; Bataller, Ramón

    2015-01-01

    Alcoholic hepatitis (AH) frequently progresses to multiple organ failure (MOF) and death. However, the driving factors are largely unknown. At admission, patients with AH often show criteria of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) even in the absence of an infection. We hypothesize that the presence of SIRS may predispose to MOF and death. To test this hypothesis, we studied a cohort including 162 patients with biopsy-proven AH. The presence of SIRS and infections was assessed in all patients, and multivariate analyses identified variables independently associated with MOF and 90-day mortality. At admission, 32 (19.8%) patients were diagnosed with a bacterial infection, while 75 (46.3%) fulfilled SIRS criteria; 58 patients (35.8%) developed MOF during hospitalization. Short-term mortality was significantly higher among patients who developed MOF (62.1% versus 3.8%, P <0.001). The presence of SIRS was a major predictor of MOF (odds ratio = 2.69, P=0.025) and strongly correlated with mortality. Importantly, the course of patients with SIRS with and without infection was similar in terms of MOF development and short-term mortality. Finally, we sought to identify serum markers that differentiate SIRS with and without infection. We studied serum levels of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, and lipopolysaccharide at admission. All of them predicted mortality. Procalcitonin, but not high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, serum levels identified those patients with SIRS and infection. Lipopolysaccharide serum levels predicted MOF and the response to prednisolone. Conclusion In the presence or absence of infections, SIRS is a major determinant of MOF and mortality in AH, and the mechanisms involved in the development of SIRS should be investigated; procalcitonin serum levels can help to identify patients with infection, and lipopolysaccharide levels may help to predict mortality and the response to steroids. PMID:25761863

  1. Prediction factors for failure to seek treatment following traumatic dental injuries to primary teeth.

    PubMed

    Firmino, Ramon Targino; Siqueira, Maria Betânia Lins Dantas; Vieira-Andrade, Raquel Gonçalves; Gomes, Genara Brum; Martins, Carolina Castro; Paiva, Saul Martins; Granville-Garcia, Ana Flávia

    2014-01-01

    The objective of this study was to evaluate prediction factors for failure to seek treatment following a traumatic dental injury (TDI) to primary teeth among preschool children in the city of Campina Grande, Brazil. A cross-sectional study was carried out involving 277 children 3 to 5 years of age, with TDI, enrolled in public and private preschools. Parents filled out a form addressing demographic data and whether or not they had sought treatment. Clinical examinations were performed by three dentists who had undergone a calibration exercise (Kappa: 0.85 to 0.90) for the evaluation of TDI. Bivariate and multivariate Poisson regression models were constructed (α=5%). Enamel fracture was the most prevalent type of TDI (48.7%) and the upper central incisors were the most affected teeth (88.4%). The frequency of seeking dental treatment was low (9.7%). The following variables were associated with failure to seek treatment following TDI: a household income greater than one minimum wage (PR=1.170; 95%CI 1.018-1.341), parents/caregivers' perception of a child's oral health as poor (PR=1.100; 95%CI 1.026-1.176), and the non-perception of TDI by parents/caregivers (PR=1.250; 95%CI 1.142-1.360). In the present study, the frequency of seeking treatment following TDI was low, and parents/caregivers with a higher income, a poor perception of their child's oral health and a lack of awareness regarding the trauma were more likely to fail to seek treatment following TDI to primary teeth. PMID:24918361

  2. Inappropriate fixation of an endotracheal tube causing cuff malfunction resulting in difficult extubation.

    PubMed

    Nag, Deb Sanjay; Samaddar, Devi Prasad

    2016-01-01

    We discuss a case of difficult extubation, due to inadequate deflation of the tracheal tube cuff, despite collapse of the pilot balloon, on its aspiration. This was caused by inadvertent kinking of the pilot balloon tubing due to inappropriate tape fixation of the endotracheal tube. PMID:27591469

  3. Predictive Values of Red Blood Cell Distribution Width in Assessing Severity of Chronic Heart Failure

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Sen; Wang, Ping; Shen, Ping-Ping; Zhou, Jian-Hua

    2016-01-01

    Background This retrospective study was performed to evaluate the value of baseline red blood cell distribution width (RDW) for predicting the severity of chronic heart failure (CHF) compared with N-terminal prohormone brain natriuretic peptide (NT-ProBNP) and other hematological and biochemical parameters. Material/Methods Hematological and biochemical parameters were obtained from 179 patients with New York Heart Association (NYHA) CHF class I (n=44), II (n=39), III (n=41), and IV (n=55). Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves were used for assessing predictive values. Results RDW increased significantly in class III and IV compared with class I (14.3±2.3% and 14.3±1.7% vs. 12.9±0.8%, P<0.01). Areas under ROCs (AUCs) of RDW and NT-ProBNP for class IV HF were 0.817 and 0.840, respectively. RDW was markedly elevated in the mortality group compared with the survival group (13.7±1.7 vs. 15.8±1.8, P<0.01). The predictive value of RDW was lower than that of NT-ProBNP but was comparable to white blood cell (WBC), neutrophil (NEU), lymphocyte (L), and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (N/L) for mortality during hospitalization, with AUCs of 0.837, 0.939, 0.858, 0.891, 0.885, and 0.885, respectively. RDW and NT-proBNP showed low predictive values for repeated admission (≥3). RDW was an independent risk factor for mortality (OR=2.531, 95% CI: 1.371–4.671). Conclusions RDW increased significantly in class III and IV patients and in the mortality group. The predictive value of RDW is comparable to NT-proBNP for class IV and lower than that of NT-proBNP for mortality. Elevated RDW is an independent risk factor for mortality. PMID:27324271

  4. A Statistical Approach to Predict the Failure Enthalpy and Reliability of Irradiated PWR Fuel Rods During Reactivity-Initiated Accidents

    SciTech Connect

    Nam, Cheol; Jeong, Yong-Hwan; Jung, Youn-Ho

    2001-11-15

    During the last decade, the failure behavior of high-burnup fuel rods under a reactivity-initiated accident (RIA) condition has been a serious concern since fuel rod failures at low enthalpy have been observed. This has resulted in the reassessment of existing licensing criteria and failure-mode study. To address the issue, a statistics-based methodology is suggested to predict failure probability of irradiated fuel rods under an RIA. Based on RIA simulation results in the literature, a failure enthalpy correlation for an irradiated fuel rod is constructed as a function of oxide thickness, fuel burnup, and pulse width. Using the failure enthalpy correlation, a new concept of ''equivalent enthalpy'' is introduced to reflect the effects of the three primary factors as well as peak fuel enthalpy into a single damage parameter. Moreover, the failure distribution function with equivalent enthalpy is derived, applying a two-parameter Weibull statistical model. Finally, the sensitivity analysis is carried out to estimate the effects of burnup, corrosion, peak fuel enthalpy, pulse width, and cladding materials used.

  5. Implicit and Explicit Attitudes Predict Smoking Cessation: Moderating Effects of Experienced Failure to Control Smoking and Plans to Quit

    PubMed Central

    Chassin, Laurie; Presson, Clark C.; Sherman, Steven J.; Seo, Dong-Chul; Macy, Jon

    2010-01-01

    The current study tested implicit and explicit attitudes as prospective predictors of smoking cessation in a Midwestern community sample of smokers. Results showed that the effects of attitudes significantly varied with levels of experienced failure to control smoking and plans to quit. Explicit attitudes significantly predicted later cessation among those with low (but not high or average) levels of experienced failure to control smoking. Conversely, however, implicit attitudes significantly predicted later cessation among those with high levels of experienced failure to control smoking, but only if they had a plan to quit. Because smoking cessation involves both controlled and automatic processes, interventions may need to consider attitude change interventions that focus on both implicit and explicit attitudes. PMID:21198227

  6. A model for predicting coolant activity behaviour for fuel-failure monitoring analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    El-Jaby, Ali

    A CANDU fuel element becomes defective when the Zircaloy-4 sheath is breached, allowing high pressure heavy water (D2O) coolant to enter the fuel-to-sheath gap, thereby creating a direct path for fission products (mainly volatile species of iodine and noble gases) and fuel debris to escape into the primary heat transport system (PHTS). In addition, the entry of D 2O coolant into the fuel-to-sheath gap may cause the UO2 fuel to oxidize, which in turn can augment the rate of fission product release into the PHTS. The release of fission products and fuel debris into the PHTS will elevate circuit contamination levels, consequently increasing radiation exposure to station personnel during maintenance tasks. Moreover, the continued operation of a defective fuel element may diminish its thermal performance due to fuel oxidation effects. It is therefore desirable to discharge defective fuel as soon as possible. Hence, a better understanding of defective fuel behaviour is required in order to develop an improved methodology for fuel-failure monitoring and PHTS coolant activity prediction. A mathematical model has been developed to predict the release of volatile fission products from operating defective nuclear fuel elements. The fission product activity in both the fuel-to-sheath gap and PHTS coolant as a function of time can be predicted during all reactor operations including steady-state operation as well as reactor shutdown, startup, and bundle-shifting manoeuvres. In addition, an improved ability to predict the PHTS coolant activity of the 135Xe isotope in commercial reactors is discussed. Moreover, a method to approximate both the burnup and the amount of the tramp uranium deposits in-core, as well as the tramp uranium fission rate is proposed. The model has been implemented as the STAR (Steady-state and Transient Activity Release) stand-alone code written in the C++ programming language using a custom developed finite-difference variable-mesh (FDVM) numerical

  7. Serum Uric Acid Predicts Declining of Circulating Proangiogenic Mononuclear Progenitor Cells in Chronic Heart Failure Patients

    PubMed Central

    Berezin, Alexander E.; Kremzer, Alexander A.; Samura, Tatyana A.; Berezina, Tatyana A.; Martovitskaya, Yulia V.

    2014-01-01

    Introduction: Serum uric acid (SUA) is considered a marker for natural progression of chronic heart failure (CHF) mediated cardiovascular remodelling. CHF associates with declining of circulating mononuclear progenitor cells (MPCs). The objective of this study was to evaluate the interrelationship between SUA concentrations and proangiogenic MPCs in ischemic CHF patients. Methods: The study population was structured retrospectively after determining the coronary artery disease (CAD) by contrast-enhanced spiral computed tomography angiography in 126 subjects with symptomatic ischemic mild-to-severe CHF and 128 CAD subjects without CHF. Baseline biomarkers were measured in all patients. Cox proportional multivariate hazard ratio was calculated for predictors of MPCs declining in both CHF and non-CHF patient population predictors of MPCs declining in CHF subjects were examined in stepwise logistic regression. C-statistics, integrated discrimination indices (IDI) and net-reclassification improvement were utilized for prediction performance analyses. Results: Cox proportional adjusted hazard ratio analyses for CD14+CD309+ and CD14+CD309+Tie2+ MPCs by SUA has shown that the higher quartiles (Q3 and Q4) of SUA compared to the lower quartiles (Q1 and Q2) are associated with increased risks of depletion of both CD14+CD309+ and CD14+CD309+Tie2+ MPCs. The addition of Q4 SUA to the ABC model improved the relative IDI by 13.8% for depletion of CD14+CD309+ MPCs and by 14.5% for depletion of CD14+CD309+Tie2+ MPCs. Conclusion: Circulating levels of proangiogenic MPCs are declined progressively depending on the levels of SUA in the HF subjects with CHF. We suggest that even mild elevations of SUA might be used to predict of relative depletion of proangiogenic MPCs among chronic HF patients. PMID:25320662

  8. Serum biomarkers may help predict successful misoprostol management of early pregnancy failure.

    PubMed

    Schreiber, Courtney A; Ratcliffe, Sarah J; Quinley, Kelly E; Miller, Carrie; Sammel, Mary D

    2015-06-01

    In order to simplify management of early pregnancy loss, our goal was to elucidate predictors of successful medical management of miscarriage with a single dose of misoprostol. In this secondary analysis of data from a multicenter randomized controlled trial, candidate biomarkers were compared between 49 women with missed abortion who succeeded in passing their pregnancy with a single dose of misoprostol and 46 women who did not pass their pregnancy with a misoprostol single dose. We computed the precision of trophoblastic protein and hormone concentrations to discriminate between women who succeed or fail single dose misoprostol management. We also included demographic factors in our analyses. We found overlap in the concentrations of the individual markers between women who succeeded and failed single-dose misoprostol. However, hCG levels ≥ 4000 mIU/mL and ADAM-12 levels ≥ 2500 pg/mL were independently associated with complete uterine expulsion after one dose of misoprostol in our population. A multivariable logistic model for success included non-Hispanic ethnicity and parity <2 in addition to hCG ≥ 4000 mIU/mL and ADAM-12 ≥ 2500 pg/mL and had an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) of 0.81 (95% confidence interval: 72-90%). Categorizing women with a predicted probability of ≥ 0.65 resulted in a sensitivity of 75.0%, specificity 77.1% and positive predictive value of 81.8%. While preliminary, our data suggest that serum biomarkers, especially when combined with demographic characteristics, may be helpful in guiding patient decision-making regarding the management of early pregnancy failure (EPF). Further study is warranted. PMID:26051455

  9. Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hatfield, Glen S.; Hark, Frank; Stott, James

    2016-01-01

    Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account risks attributable to manufacturing, assembly, and process controls. These sources often dominate component level reliability or risk of failure probability. While consequences of failure is often understood in assessing risk, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence will likely underestimate the risk. Managers and decision makers often use the probability of occurrence in determining whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. Due to the absence of system level test and operational data inherent in aerospace applications, the actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be appropriately characterized for decision making purposes. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

  10. Early warning and clinical outcome prediction of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure

    PubMed Central

    Chen, En-Qiang; Zeng, Fan; Zhou, Ling-Yun; Tang, Hong

    2015-01-01

    Hepatitis B virus (HBV) associated acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is an increasingly recognized fatal liver disease encompassing a severe acute exacerbation of liver function in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Despite the introduction of an artificial liver support system and antiviral therapy, the short-term prognosis of HBV-ACLF is still extremely poor unless emergency liver transplantation is performed. In such a situation, stopping or slowing the progression of CHB to ACLF at an early stage is the most effective way of reducing the morbidity and mortality of HBV-ACLF. It is well-known that the occurrence and progression of HBV-ACLF is associated with many factors, and the outcomes of HBV-ACLF patients can be significantly improved if timely and appropriate interventions are provided. In this review, we highlight recent developments in early warning and clinical outcome prediction in patients with HBV-ACLF and provide an outlook for future research in this field. PMID:26576085

  11. Failure location prediction by finite element analysis for an additive manufactured mandible implant.

    PubMed

    Huo, Jinxing; Dérand, Per; Rännar, Lars-Erik; Hirsch, Jan-Michaél; Gamstedt, E Kristofer

    2015-09-01

    In order to reconstruct a patient with a bone defect in the mandible, a porous scaffold attached to a plate, both in a titanium alloy, was designed and manufactured using additive manufacturing. Regrettably, the implant fractured in vivo several months after surgery. The aim of this study was to investigate the failure of the implant and show a way of predicting the mechanical properties of the implant before surgery. All computed tomography data of the patient were preprocessed to remove metallic artefacts with metal deletion technique before mandible geometry reconstruction. The three-dimensional geometry of the patient's mandible was also reconstructed, and the implant was fixed to the bone model with screws in Mimics medical imaging software. A finite element model was established from the assembly of the mandible and the implant to study stresses developed during mastication. The stress distribution in the load-bearing plate was computed, and the location of main stress concentration in the plate was determined. Comparison between the fracture region and the location of the stress concentration shows that finite element analysis could serve as a tool for optimizing the design of mandible implants. PMID:26227805

  12. Predicting time-to-failure in rock extrapolated from secondary creep

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hao, Sheng-Wang; Zhang, Bao-Ju; Tian, Ji-Feng; Elsworth, Derek

    2014-03-01

    Stress relaxation experiments are reported that culminate in energetic failure in rocks analogous to the loading cycle and subsequent localization or reactivation on brittle faults embedded in an elastic medium. Universally, rapid primary deformation arrests and transitions into a long secondary deformation phase that ultimately accelerates to catastrophic rupture. Primary deformation (u) conforms to Andrade's law as du/dt ~ (tc - t0)θ with a standard exponent of 2/3. In the long, and readily observable, secondary phase, the samples both deform and analogously shed load near linearly in time. This stress relaxation rate exhibits a robust power law dependency with time-to-rupture and exhibits the same 2/3 power law exponent observed in the primary phase. Similarly, the brittle strain energy released in the tertiary collapse scales with a normalized secondary stress relaxation rate. Together, these observations suggest a way to predict both the timing of rupture and its energetics from the observed stress (or strain) rate during the secondary relaxation stage.

  13. Prediction of the Chemoreflex Gain by Common Clinical Variables in Heart Failure

    PubMed Central

    Mirizzi, Gianluca; Giannoni, Alberto; Ripoli, Andrea; Iudice, Giovanni; Bramanti, Francesca; Emdin, Michele; Passino, Claudio

    2016-01-01

    Background Peripheral and central chemoreflex sensitivity, assessed by the hypoxic or hypercapnic ventilatory response (HVR and HCVR, respectively), is enhanced in heart failure (HF) patients, is involved in the pathophysiology of the disease, and is under investigation as a potential therapeutic target. Chemoreflex sensitivity assessment is however demanding and, therefore, not easily applicable in the clinical setting. We aimed at evaluating whether common clinical variables, broadly obtained by routine clinical and instrumental evaluation, could predict increased HVR and HCVR. Methods and results 191 patients with systolic HF (left ventricular ejection fraction—LVEF—<50%) underwent chemoreflex assessment by rebreathing technique to assess HVR and HCVR. All patients underwent clinical and neurohormonal evaluation, comprising: echocardiogram, cardiopulmonary exercise test (CPET), daytime cardiorespiratory monitoring for breathing pattern evaluation. Regarding HVR, multivariate penalized logistic regression, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) logistic regression and random forest analysis identified, as predictors, the presence of periodic breathing and increased slope of the relation between ventilation and carbon dioxide production (VE/VCO2) during exercise. Again, the above-mentioned statistical tools identified as HCVR predictors plasma levels of N-terminal fragment of proBNP and VE/VCO2 slope. Conclusions In HF patients, the simple assessment of breathing pattern, alongside with ventilatory efficiency during exercise and natriuretic peptides levels identifies a subset of patients presenting with increased chemoreflex sensitivity to either hypoxia or hypercapnia. PMID:27099934

  14. TBCs for Gas Turbines under Thermomechanical Loadings: Failure Behaviour and Life Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beck, T.; Trunova, O.; Herzog, R.; Singheiser, L.

    2012-10-01

    The present contribution gives an overview about recent research on a thermal barrier coating (TBC) system consisted of (i) an intermetallic MCrAlY-alloy Bondcoat (BC) applied by vacuum plasma spraying (VPS) and (ii) an Yttria Stabilised Zirconia (YSZ) top coat air plasma sprayed (APS) at Forschungszentrum Juelich, Institute of Energy and Climate Research (IEK-1). The influence of high temperature dwell time, maximum and minimum temperature on crack growth kinetics during thermal cycling of such plasma sprayed TBCs is investigated using infrared pulse thermography (IT), acoustic emission (AE) analysis and scanning electron microscopy. Thermocyclic life in terms of accumulated time at maximum temperature decreases with increasing high temperature dwell time and increases with increasing minimum temperature. AE analysis proves that crack growth mainly occurs during cooling at temperatures below the ductile-to-brittle transition temperature of the BC. Superimposed mechanical load cycles accelerate delamination crack growth and, in case of sufficiently high mechanical loadings, result in premature fatigue failure of the substrate. A life prediction model based on TGO growth kinetics and a fracture mechanics approach has been developed which accounts for the influence of maximum and minimum temperature as well as of high temperature dwell time with good accuracy in an extremely wide parameter range.

  15. GenSo-EWS: a novel neural-fuzzy based early warning system for predicting bank failures.

    PubMed

    Tung, W L; Quek, C; Cheng, P

    2004-05-01

    Bank failure prediction is an important issue for the regulators of the banking industries. The collapse and failure of a bank could trigger an adverse financial repercussion and generate negative impacts such as a massive bail out cost for the failing bank and loss of confidence from the investors and depositors. Very often, bank failures are due to financial distress. Hence, it is desirable to have an early warning system (EWS) that identifies potential bank failure or high-risk banks through the traits of financial distress. Various traditional statistical models have been employed to study bank failures [J Finance 1 (1975) 21; J Banking Finance 1 (1977) 249; J Banking Finance 10 (1986) 511; J Banking Finance 19 (1995) 1073]. However, these models do not have the capability to identify the characteristics of financial distress and thus function as black boxes. This paper proposes the use of a new neural fuzzy system [Foundations of neuro-fuzzy systems, 1997], namely the Generic Self-organising Fuzzy Neural Network (GenSoFNN) [IEEE Trans Neural Networks 13 (2002c) 1075] based on the compositional rule of inference (CRI) [Commun ACM 37 (1975) 77], as an alternative to predict banking failure. The CRI based GenSoFNN neural fuzzy network, henceforth denoted as GenSoFNN-CRI(S), functions as an EWS and is able to identify the inherent traits of financial distress based on financial covariates (features) derived from publicly available financial statements. The interaction between the selected features is captured in the form of highly intuitive IF-THEN fuzzy rules. Such easily comprehensible rules provide insights into the possible characteristics of financial distress and form the knowledge base for a highly desired EWS that aids bank regulation. The performance of the GenSoFNN-CRI(S) network is subsequently benchmarked against that of the Cox's proportional hazards model [J Banking Finance 10 (1986) 511; J Banking Finance 19 (1995) 1073], the multi

  16. A methodology for probabilistic prediction of structural failures of launch vehicle propulsion systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moore, N.; Ebbeler, D.; Creager, M.

    1990-01-01

    A quantitative methodology for estimating the probability of occurrence of critical structural failure modes of launch vehicle propulsion systems during mission operation is presented. In this approach, engineering analysis models that characterize specific failure modes based on the physics and mechanics of the failure phenomenon are used in a prescribed probabalistic structure in which quantified uncertainty in the information used in the analysis and quantified uncertainty of the engineering analysis models themselves are both considered in estimating failure risk. The methodology is applicable to high cycle fatigue, low cycle fatigue, flaw propagation stress rupture, and other failure modes of launch vehicle propulsion systems and other space-flight systems. The probabalistic failure assessment presented provides the capability of performing quantitative analyses to rank options to improve reliability, thereby enabling limited financial resources of development and improvement programs to be more effectively allocated.

  17. Lamivudine Concentration in Hair and Prediction of Virologic Failure and Drug Resistance among HIV Patients Receiving Free ART in China

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Zhe; Wu, Jianjun; Zhang, Jiafeng; Ruan, Yuhua; Hsi, Jenny; Liao, Lingjie; Shao, Yiming; Xing, Hui

    2016-01-01

    Background The assessment of adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) is important in order to predict treatment outcomes. Lamivudine (3TC) is one of the most widely used NRTIs in China, but its concentrations in hair and association with virologic failure and drug resistance have not been studied. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional survey to investigate 3TC concentrations in hair as a predictor of virologic failure and drug resistance among HIV patients receiving free ART. We also compared the capacity of hair 3TC concentrations with self-reported adherence in predicting virologic responses. Hair 3TC concentrations were detected through the LC-MS/MS system. Results In patients without HIV drug resistance (HIVDR), with a threshold hair 3TC concentration of 260 ng/g, the sensitivity and specificity in predicting virologic suppression were 76.9% and 89.9%, respectively. Some factors, including CD4+ cell counts, initial treatment regimens with 3TC, and current regimens with second-line drugs, influenced the association between hair 3TC concentrations and virologic suppression. In patients who experienced virologic failure with HIVDR, with a threshold of 180 ng/g, the sensitivity and specificity were 70.0% and 74.4%, respectively. Hair 3TC concentrations had higher sensitivity and specificity in predicting virologic failure and drug resistance than self-reported adherence. Conclusions The hair 3TC concentration was a stronger indicator than self-reported adherence in predicting virologic failure and drug resistance in HIV patients receiving free ART. PMID:27119346

  18. Genomic Prostate Cancer Classifier Predicts Biochemical Failure and Metastases in Patients After Postoperative Radiation Therapy

    SciTech Connect

    Den, Robert B.; Feng, Felix Y.; Showalter, Timothy N.; Mishra, Mark V.; Trabulsi, Edouard J.; Lallas, Costas D.; Gomella, Leonard G.; Kelly, W. Kevin; Birbe, Ruth C.; McCue, Peter A.; Ghadessi, Mercedeh; Yousefi, Kasra; Davicioni, Elai; Knudsen, Karen E.; Dicker, Adam P.

    2014-08-01

    Purpose: To test the hypothesis that a genomic classifier (GC) would predict biochemical failure (BF) and distant metastasis (DM) in men receiving radiation therapy (RT) after radical prostatectomy (RP). Methods and Materials: Among patients who underwent post-RP RT, 139 were identified for pT3 or positive margin, who did not receive neoadjuvant hormones and had paraffin-embedded specimens. Ribonucleic acid was extracted from the highest Gleason grade focus and applied to a high-density-oligonucleotide microarray. Receiver operating characteristic, calibration, cumulative incidence, and Cox regression analyses were performed to assess GC performance for predicting BF and DM after post-RP RT in comparison with clinical nomograms. Results: The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the Stephenson model was 0.70 for both BF and DM, with addition of GC significantly improving area under the receiver operating characteristic curve to 0.78 and 0.80, respectively. Stratified by GC risk groups, 8-year cumulative incidence was 21%, 48%, and 81% for BF (P<.0001) and for DM was 0, 12%, and 17% (P=.032) for low, intermediate, and high GC, respectively. In multivariable analysis, patients with high GC had a hazard ratio of 8.1 and 14.3 for BF and DM. In patients with intermediate or high GC, those irradiated with undetectable prostate-specific antigen (PSA ≤0.2 ng/mL) had median BF survival of >8 years, compared with <4 years for patients with detectable PSA (>0.2 ng/mL) before initiation of RT. At 8 years, the DM cumulative incidence for patients with high GC and RT with undetectable PSA was 3%, compared with 23% with detectable PSA (P=.03). No outcome differences were observed for low GC between the treatment groups. Conclusion: The GC predicted BF and metastasis after post-RP irradiation. Patients with lower GC risk may benefit from delayed RT, as opposed to those with higher GC; however, this needs prospective validation. Genomic-based models

  19. Predictive value of arterial ammonia for complications and outcome in acute liver failure

    PubMed Central

    Bhatia, V; Singh, R; Acharya, S K

    2006-01-01

    Background and aim In acute liver failure (ALF), the brain is exposed to high levels of ammonia. Human studies defining the clinical significance of ammonia in ALF are lacking. This prospective study evaluated the relationship of arterial ammonia levels at admission to complications and survival among patients with ALF. Methods Eighty consecutive ALF patients admitted from March 2001 to December 2003 were followed up until death or complete recovery. All had arterial ammonia estimation at admission (enzymatic method). Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent predictors of mortality. Results Forty two (52.5%) patients died. Non‐survivors had significantly higher median ammonia levels than survivors (174.7 v 105.0 μmol/l; p<0.001). An arterial ammonia level of ⩾ 124 μmol/l was found to predict mortality with 78.6% sensitivity and 76.3% specificity, and had 77.5% diagnostic accuracy. Patients with higher ammonia levels also developed more complications, including deeper encephalopathy (p = 0.055), cerebral oedema (p = 0.020), need for ventilation (p<0.001), and seizures (p = 0.006). Logistic regression analysis showed that pH, presence of cerebral oedema, and arterial ammonia at admission were independent predictors of mortality (odds ratios 6.6, 12.6, and 10.9, respectively). Incorporating these variables, a score predicting mortality risk at admission was derived: 2.53 + 2.91 ammonia + 2.41 oedema + 1.40 pH, where ammonia is scored as 0 (if <124 μmol/l) or 1 (if ⩾124 μmol/l); oedema is scored as 0 (absent) or 1(present); and pH is scored as 1 (if ⩽7.40) or 0 (if >7.40). Levels of partial pressure of ammonia were equally correlated with outcome. Conclusion Arterial ammonia at presentation is predictive of outcome and can be used for risk stratification. Ammonia lowering therapies in patients with ALF should be evaluated. PMID:16024550

  20. Positive Predictive Value of the WHO Clinical and Immunologic Criteria to Predict Viral Load Failure among Adults on First, or Second-Line Antiretroviral Therapy in Kenya

    PubMed Central

    Muttai, Hellen; Ng’ang’a, Lucy; Ackers, Marta; Kim, Andrea; Miruka, Fredrick; Erick, Opiyo; Okonji, Julie; Ayuaya, Tolbert; Schwarcz, Sandra

    2016-01-01

    Routine HIV viral load (VL) monitoring is the standard of care for persons receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in developed countries. Although the World Health Organization recommends annual VL monitoring of patients on ART, recognizing difficulties in conducting routine VL testing, the WHO continues to recommend targeted VL testing to confirm treatment failure for persons who meet selected immunologic and clinical criteria. Studies have measured positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value, sensitivity and specificity of these criteria among patients receiving first-line ART but not specifically among those on second-line or subsequent regimens. Between 2008 and 2011, adult ART patients in Nyanza, Kenya who met national clinical or immunologic criteria for treatment failure received targeted VL testing. We calculated PPV and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of these criteria to detect virologic treatment failure among patients receiving a) first-line ART, b) second/subsequent ART, and c) any regimen. Of 12,134 patient specimens tested, 2,874 (23.7%) were virologically confirmed as treatment failures. The PPV for 2,834 first-line ART patients who met either the clinical or immunologic criteria for treatment failure was 34.4% (95% CI 33.2–35.7), 33.1% (95% CI 24.7–42.3) for the 40 patients on second-line/subsequent regimens, and 33.4% (95% CI 33.1–35.6) for any ART. PPV, regardless of criteria, for first-line ART patients was lowest among patients over 44 years old and highest for patients aged 15 to 34 years. PPV of immunological and clinical criteria for correctly identifying treatment failure was similarly low for adult patients receiving either first-line or second-line/subsequent ART regimens. Our data confirm the inadequacy of clinical and immunologic criteria to correctly identify treatment failure and support the implementation of routine VL testing. PMID:27383834

  1. Better Adherence to Treatment Recommendations in Heart Failure Predicts Improved Cognitive Function at a One Year Follow Up

    PubMed Central

    Alosco, Michael L.; Spitznagel, Mary Beth; Cohen, Ronald; Sweet, Lawrence H.; Josephson, Richard; Hughes, Joel; Rosneck, Jim; Gunstad, John

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Treatment non-adherence is common in heart failure and associated with poor health outcomes in this population. Recent cross-sectional work in heart failure and past work in other medical populations suggests cognitive function is a key determinant of patient’s ability to adhere to treatment recommendations. However, it is also possible that treatment adherence is an important modifier and predictor of cognitive function, though no study has examined this possibility and we sought to do so in a sample of heart failure patients. Methods 115 patients with heart failure self-reported adherence to treatment recommendations. The Modified Mini Mental State Examination (3MS), Trail Making Test parts A and B, and the California Verbal Learning Test-II (CVLT-II) assessed cognitive function. These procedures were performed at baseline and a 12-month follow-up. Results Global cognition and memory abilities improved over the 12-month period. Regression analyses controlling for baseline and medical and demographic factors showed better baseline treatment adherence predicted improved 12-month performances on the 3MS and CVLT-II. Adherence to medication and diet regimens and smoking abstinence emerged as the most important contributors. Conclusions Better treatment adherence predicted improved cognition one-year later in HF. Prospective studies that utilize objective assessments of treatment adherence are needed to confirm our findings and examine whether improved treatment adherence preserves cognitive function in heart failure. PMID:25352233

  2. Serum Procalcitonin and Peripheral Venous Lactate for Predicting Dengue Shock and/or Organ Failure: A Prospective Observational Study

    PubMed Central

    Thanachartwet, Vipa; Desakorn, Varunee; Sahassananda, Duangjai; Jittmittraphap, Akanitt; Oer-areemitr, Nittha; Osothsomboon, Sathaporn; Surabotsophon, Manoon; Wattanathum, Anan

    2016-01-01

    Background Currently, there are no biomarkers that can predict the incidence of dengue shock and/or organ failure, although the early identification of risk factors is important in determining appropriate management to reduce mortality. Therefore, we sought to determine the factors associated with dengue shock and/or organ failure and to evaluate the prognostic value of serum procalcitonin (PCT) and peripheral venous lactate (PVL) levels as biomarkers of dengue shock and/or organ failure. Methodology/Principal Findings A prospective observational study was conducted among adults hospitalized for confirmed viral dengue infection at the Hospital for Tropical Diseases in Bangkok, Thailand between October 2013 and July 2015. Data, including baseline characteristics, clinical parameters, laboratory findings, serum PCT and PVL levels, management, and outcomes, were recorded on pre-defined case report forms. Of 160 patients with dengue, 128 (80.0%) patients had dengue without shock or organ failure, whereas 32 (20.0%) patients developed dengue with shock and/or organ failure. Using a stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis, PCT ≥0.7 ng/mL (odds ratio [OR]: 4.80; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.60–14.45; p = 0.005) and PVL ≥2.5 mmol/L (OR: 27.99, 95% CI: 8.47–92.53; p <0.001) were independently associated with dengue shock and/or organ failure. A combination of PCT ≥0.7 ng/mL and PVL ≥2.5 mmol/L provided good prognostic value for predicting dengue shock and/or organ failure, with an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.83 (95% CI: 0.74–0.92), a sensitivity of 81.2% (95% CI: 63.6–92.8%), and a specificity of 84.4% (95% CI: 76.9–90.2%). Dengue shock patients with non-clearance of PCT and PVL expired during hospitalization. Conclusions/Significance PCT ≥0.7 ng/mL and PVL ≥2.5 mmol/L were independently associated with dengue shock and/or organ failure. The combination of PCT and PVL levels could be used as prognostic

  3. Failure prediction of thin beryllium sheets used in spacecraft structures. Semiannual Status Report, 1 Jul. - 31 Dec. 1990

    SciTech Connect

    Roschke, P.N.; Papados, P.; Mascorro, E.

    1991-01-01

    In an attempt to predict failure for cross-rolled beryllium sheet structures, high order macroscopic failure criteria are used. These require the knowledge of in-plane uniaxial and shear strengths. Test results are included for in-plane biaxial tension, uniaxial compression for two different material orientations, and shear. All beryllium specimens have the same chemical composition. In addition, all experimental work was performed in a controlled laboratory environment. Numerical simulation complements these tests. A brief bibliography supplements references listed in a previous report.

  4. Predicting In-Hospital Treatment Failure (≤ 7 days) in Patients with COPD Exacerbation Using Antibiotics and Systemic Steroids.

    PubMed

    Crisafulli, Ernesto; Torres, Antoni; Huerta, Arturo; Guerrero, Mónica; Gabarrús, Albert; Gimeno, Alexandra; Martinez, Raquel; Soler, Néstor; Fernández, Laia; Wedzicha, Jadwiga A; Menéndez, Rosario

    2016-01-01

    Although pharmacological treatment of COPD exacerbation (COPDE) includes antibiotics and systemic steroids, a proportion of patients show worsening of symptoms during hospitalization that characterize treatment failure. The aim of our study was to determine in-hospital predictors of treatment failure (≤ 7 days). Prospective data on 110 hospitalized COPDE patients, all treated with antibiotics and systemic steroids, were collected; on the seventh day of hospitalization, patients were divided into treatment failure (n = 16) or success (n = 94). Measures of inflammatory serum biomarkers were recorded at admission and at day 3; data on clinical, laboratory, microbiological, and severity, as well data on mortality and readmission, were also recorded. Patients with treatment failure had a worse lung function, with higher serum levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), tumour necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α), interleukin (IL) 8, and IL-10 at admission, and CRP and IL-8 at day 3. Longer length of hospital stay and duration of antibiotic therapy, higher total doses of steroids and prevalence of deaths and readmitted were found in the treatment failure group. In the multivariate analysis, +1 mg/dL of CRP at admission (OR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.13) and use of penicillins or cephalosporins (OR, 5.63; 95% CI, 1.26 to 25.07) were independent variables increasing risk of treatment failure, whereas cough at admission (OR, 0.20; 95% CI, 0.05 to 0.75) reduces risk of failure. In hospitalized COPDE patients CRP at admission and use of specific class of antibiotics predict in-hospital treatment failure, while presence of cough has a protective role. PMID:26451913

  5. Predicting treatment failure in patients with community acquired pneumonia: a case-control study

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Treatment failure in community-acquired-pneumonia (CAP) patients is associated with a high mortality rate, and therefore are a matter of great concern in clinical management. Those patients have increased mortality and are a target population for randomized clinical trials. Methods A case–control study was performed in patients with CAP (non-failure cases vs. failure cases, discriminating by late and early failure). CRP, PCT, interleukin 1, 6, 8 and 10 and TNF were determined at days 1 and 3 of hospitalization. Results A total of 253 patients were included in this study where 83 patients presented treatment failure. Of these, 40 (48.2%) had early failure. A discriminative effect was found for a higher CURB-65 score among late failure patients (p = 0.004). A significant increase on day 1 of hospitalization in CRP (p < 0.001), PCT (p = 0.004), IL-6 (p < 0.001) and IL-8 (p = 0.02), and a decrease in IL-1 (p = 0.06) in patients with failure was observed compared with patients without failure. On day 3, only the increase in CRP (p < 0.001), PCT (p = 0.007) and IL-6 (p < 0.001) remained significant. Independent predictors for early failure were higher IL-6 levels on day 1 (OR = 1.78, IC = 1.2-2.6) and pleural effusion (OR = 2.25, IC = 1.0-5.3), and for late failure, higher PCT levels on day 3 (OR = 1.60, IC = 1.0-2.5), CURB-65 score ≥ 3 (OR = 1.43, IC = 1.0-2.0), and multilobar involvement (OR = 4.50, IC = 2.1-9.9). Conclusions There was a good correlation of IL-6 levels and CAP failure and IL-6 & PCT with late CAP failure. Pleural effusion and multilobar involvement were simple clinical predictors of early and late failure, respectively. Trial registration IRB Register: http://2009/5451. PMID:24996572

  6. Utility of Socioeconomic Status in Predicting 30-Day Outcomes After Heart Failure Hospitalization

    PubMed Central

    Eapen, Zubin J.; McCoy, Lisa A.; Fonarow, Gregg C.; Yancy, Clyde W.; Miranda, Marie Lynn; Peterson, Eric D.; Califf, Robert M.; Hernandez, Adrian F.

    2015-01-01

    Background An individual's socioeconomic status (SES) is associated with health outcomes and mortality, yet it is unknown whether accounting for SES can improve risk-adjustment models for 30-day outcomes among Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) beneficiaries hospitalized with heart failure (HF). Methods and Results We linked clinical data on hospitalized HF patients in the Get With The Guidelines®-HF™ database (01/2005–12/2011) with CMS claims and county-level SES data from the 2012 Area Health Resources Files. We compared the discriminatory capabilities of multivariable models that adjusted for SES, patient, and/or hospital characteristics to determine whether county-level SES data improved prediction or changed hospital rankings for 30-day all-cause mortality and rehospitalization. After adjusting for patient and hospital characteristics, median household income (per $5,000 increase) was inversely associated with odds of 30-day mortality (OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.95–1.00, p=0.032), and the percentage of persons with at least a high school diploma (per 5 unit increase) was associated with lower odds of 30-day rehospitalization (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.91–0.99).After adjustment for county-level SES data, relative to whites, Hispanic ethnicity (OR 0.70, 95% CI 0.58, 0.83) and black race (OR 0.57, 95% CI: 0.50–0.65) remained significantly associated with lower 30-day mortality, but had similar 30-day rehospitalization. County-level SES did not improve risk adjustment or change hospital rankings for 30-day mortality or rehospitalization. Conclusions County-level SES data are modestly associated with 30-day outcomes for CMS beneficiaries hospitalized with HF, but do not improve risk adjustment models based on patient characteristics alone. PMID:25747700

  7. The utility of biomarker risk prediction score in patients with chronic heart failure

    PubMed Central

    Berezin, Alexander E; Kremzer, Alexander A; Martovitskaya, Yulia V; Samura, Tatyana A; Berezina, Tatyana A; Zulli, Anthony; Klimas, Jan; Kruzliak, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Chronic heart failure (CHF) remains a leading cause of cardiovascular death worldwide. Current risk models allow better prognosis, however further tools for assessing risk are needed. Thus, this study was aimed to evaluate whether biomarker risk prediction score is powerful tool for risk assessment of three-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events in CHF patients. Methods: A prospective study on the incidence of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events, as well as the frequency of occurrence of death from any cause in a cohort of 388 patients with CHF during 3 years of observation was performed. Circulating levels of NT-pro brain natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP), galectin-3, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), osteoprotegerin and its soluble receptor sRANKL, osteopontin, osteonectin, adiponectin, endothelial apoptotic microparticles (EMPs) and mononuclear progenitor cells (MPCs) were measured at baseline. Results: Median follow-up of patients included in the study was 2.76 years. There were 285 cardiovascular events determined, including 43 deaths and 242 readmissions. Independent predictors of clinical outcomes in patients with CHF were NT-pro-BNP, galectin-3, hs-CRP, osteoprotegerin, CD31+/annexin V+ EMPs and EMPs/CD14+CD309+ MPCs ratio. Index of cardiovascular risk was calculated by mathematical summation of all ranks of independent predictors, which occurred in the patients included in the study. The findings showed that the average value of the index of cardiovascular risk in patients with CHF was 3.17 points (95% CI = 1.65-5.10 points). Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that patients with CHF and the magnitude of the risk of less than 4 units have an advantage in survival when compared with patients for whom obtained higher values of ranks cardiovascular risk score. Conclusion: Biomarker risk score for cumulative cardiovascular events, constructed by measurement of circulating NT-pro-BNP, galectin-3, hs-CRP, osteoprotegerin, CD31+/annexin V+ EMPs

  8. Time shift in slope failure prediction between unimodal and bimodal modeling approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ciervo, Fabio; Casini, Francesca; Nicolina Papa, Maria; Medina, Vicente

    2016-04-01

    within the Bishop stress theory framework (Ciervo et al., 2015). The proposed work tends to emphasize how a more accurate slope stability analysis that accounts dual-structure could be useful to reach a more accurate definition of the stability conditions. The effects in practical analysis may be significant. The highlighted discrepancies between the different approaches in describing the timing processes and strength contribution due to capillary forces may entail no negligible differences in slope stability predictions, especially in those cases where the possibility of a failure in unsaturated terrains is contemplated.

  9. Patency of Femoral Tunneled Hemodialysis Catheters and Factors Predictive of Patency Failure

    SciTech Connect

    Burton, Kirsteen R.; Guo, Lancia L. Q.; Tan, Kong T.; Simons, Martin E.; Sniderman, Kenneth W.; Kachura, John R.; Beecroft, John R.; Rajan, Dheeraj K.

    2012-12-15

    Purpose: To determine the patency rates of and factors associated with increased risk of patency failure in patients with femoral vein tunneled hemodialysis catheters. Methods: All femoral tunneled catheter insertions from 1996 to 2006 were reviewed, during which time 123 catheters were inserted. Of these, 66 were exchanges. Patients with femoral catheter failure versus those with femoral catheter patency were compared. Confounding factors, such as demographic and procedural factors, were incorporated and assessed using univariate and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analyses. Results: Mean catheter primary patency failure time was 96.3 days (SE 17.9 days). Primary patency at 30, 60, 90, and 180 days was 53.8%, 45.4%, 32.1%, and 27.1% respectively. Crude rates of risk of catheter failure did not suggest a benefit for patients receiving catheters introduced from one side versus the other, but more cephalad location of catheter tip was associated with improved patency. Multivariate analysis showed that patients whose catheters were on the left side (p = 0.009), were of increasing age at the time of insertion (p = 0.002) and that those who had diabetes (p = 0.001) were at significantly greater risk of catheter failure. The catheter infection rate was 1.4/1000 catheter days. Conclusion: Patients who were of a more advanced age and had diabetes were at greater risk of femoral catheter failure, whereas those who received femoral catheters from the right side were less at risk of catheter failure.

  10. Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hatfield, Glen S.; Hark, Frank; Stott, James

    2016-01-01

    Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account system integration risks such as those attributable to manufacturing and assembly. These sources often dominate component level risk. While consequence of failure is often understood, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence may underestimate the actual risk. Managers and decision makers use the probability of occurrence to influence the determination whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. The actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be fully understood due to the absence of system level test data or operational data. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

  11. Predicting the Velocity and Azimuth of Fragments Generated by the Range Destruction or Random Failure of Rocket Casings and Tankage

    SciTech Connect

    Eck, Marshall B.; Mukunda, Meera

    1988-10-01

    The details of a predictive analytical modeling process as well as the development of normalized relations for momentum partition as a function of SRM burn time and initial geometry are discussed in this paper. Methods for applying similar modeling techniques to liquid-tankage-over-pressure failures are also discussed. These methods have been calibrated against observed SRM ascent failures and on-orbit tankage failures. Casing-quadrant sized fragments with velocities exceeding 100 m/s resulted from Titan 34D-SRM range destruct actions at 10 sec mission elapsed time (MET). Casing-quadrant sized fragments with velocities of approximately 200 m/s resulted from STS-SRM range destruct actions at 110 sec MET. Similar sized fragments for Ariane third stage and Delta second stage tankage were predicted to have maximum velocities of 260 m/s and 480 m/s respectively. Good agreement was found between the predictions and observations for five specific events and it was concluded that the methods developed have good potential for use in predicting the fragmentation process of a number of generically similar casing and tankage systems. There are three copies in the file, one of these is loose.

  12. Attenuation of circulatory and airway responses to endotracheal extubation in craniotomies for intracerebral space occupying lesions: Dexmedetomidine versus lignocaine

    PubMed Central

    Kothari, Dilip; Tandon, Neelima; Singh, Meena; Kumar, Arun

    2014-01-01

    Objectives: The objective of the study is to compare the effect of dexmedetomidine versus lignocaine in attenuation of circulatory and airway responses during endotracheal extubation in craniotomies for intracerebral space occupying lesions (ICSOL). Materials and Methods: A total of 50 patients of American Society of Anesthesiologists Grade I and II of either sex, aged 18-50 years undergoing craniotomies for non-vascular ICSOL under general anesthesia were divided into two groups according to drug received. Group D (n = 25) received dexmedetomidine (0.5 mcg/kg) whereas group L (n = 25) received lignocaine (1.5 mg/kg). Both the drugs were given 5 min before the extubation over a period of 60 s. Values for heart rate (HR), systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), were recorded just before (A0) and 1, 3, 5 (A1, A3, A5) min after the study drug administration, at extubation (E) and 1, 3, 5, 10, 15 min after extubation (E1, E3, E5, E10 and E15). Respiratory rate, oxygen saturation and airway responses like coughing, breath-holding, laryngospasm/bronchospasm were recorded only at extubation (E) and 1, 3, 5, 10, 15 min after extubation (E1, E3, E5, E10, E15). Quality of extubation was recorded with four point scale. After extubation all these patients were also observed for sedation by Ramsey sedation score. Results: Both groups showed a statistically significant increase (D < L) in HR, SBP and DBP during (E) and immediately after extubation (E1) (P < 0.05). Dexmedetomidine (72%) produced a higher degree of sedation (Grade 3) as compare with lignocaine (0%) and with no incidence of coughing or breath holding (P < 0.05). Conclusion: Single dose of dexmedetomidine (0.5 mcg/kg) given 5 min before extubation produced significant attenuation of circulatory and airway responses produced during extubation as compared to Lignocaine (1.5 mg/kg) in ICSOL. PMID:25886109

  13. Comparison of tracheal extubation in patients deeply anesthetized with desflurane or isoflurane.

    PubMed

    Smith, I; Taylor, E; White, P F

    1994-10-01

    A randomized, single-blind study design was used to compare desflurane with isoflurane in 31 adults undergoing intraocular surgery to determine whether the lower blood:gas partition coefficient of desflurane would result in a more rapid emergence after endotracheal extubation of deeply anesthetized patients. A standardized general anesthetic technique was used, consisting of sufentanil, 0.25 microgram/kg, and propofol, 1.5 mg/kg, followed by either isoflurane (n = 15) or desflurane (n = 16) in an air/oxygen mixture. After the operation and reversal of residual neuromuscular block, spontaneous ventilation was reestablished and the patients' tracheas were extubated at equianesthetic concentrations of desflurane and isoflurane (i.e., approximately 1.4 times the minimum alveolar anesthetic concentration [MAC]). Spontaneous movements occurred 5.7 (+/- 2.4) and 8.7 min (+/- 3.1; P = 0.005) after extubation in the desflurane and isoflurane groups, respectively. Eye opening and orientation also occurred significantly earlier after desflurane compared to isoflurane. Patients receiving desflurane (versus isoflurane) were also able to be transferred from the operating room significantly earlier (10.4 +/- 3.7 vs 14.5 +/- 4.3 min, P = 0.01). Use of desflurane (versus isoflurane) was not associated with an increased incidence of coughing or airway irritation during the emergence period. However, use of desflurane did not significantly reduce the duration of the postanesthesia care unit (PACU) stay or alter later recovery events compared to isoflurane. In conclusion, the more rapid emergence would favor the use of desflurane when tracheal extubation during deep anesthesia is required. PMID:7943769

  14. Factors associated with extubation time in coronary artery bypass grafting patients

    PubMed Central

    Rezaianzadeh, Abbas; Maghsoudi, Behzad; Tabatabaee, Hamidreza; Keshavarzi, Sareh; Bagheri, Zahra; Sajedianfard, Javad; Gerami, Hamid

    2015-01-01

    Background and Objectives. Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death worldwide, with coronary artery disease being the most common. With increasing numbers of patients, Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting (CABG) has become the most common operation in the world. Respiratory disorder is one of the most prevalent complications of CABG. Thus, weaning off the mechanical ventilation and extubation are of great clinical importance for these patients. Some post-operative problems also relate to the tracheal tube and mechanical ventilation. Therefore, an increase in this leads to an increase in the number of complications, length of hospital stay, and treatment costs. Since a large number of factors affect the post-operative period, the present study aims to identify the predictors of extubation time in CABG patients using casualty network analysis. Method. This longitudinal study was conducted on 800 over 18 year old patients who had undergone CABG surgery in three treatment centers affiliated to Shiraz University of Medical Sciences. The patients’ information, including pre-operative, peri-operative, and post-operative variables, was retrospectively extracted from their medical records. Then, the data was comprehensively analyzed through path analysis using MPLUS-7.1 software. Results. The mean of extubation time was 10.27 + 4.39 h. Moreover, extubation time was significantly affected by packed cells during the Cardiopulmonary Bypass (CPB), packed cells after CPB, inotrope use on arrival at ICU, mean arterial pressure 1st ICU, packed cells 1st ICU, platelets 1st ICU, Blood Urea Nitrogen 1st ICU, and hematocrit 1st ICU. Conclusion. Considering all of the factors under investigation, some peri-operative and post-operative factors had significant effects. Therefore, considering the post-operative factors is important for designing a treatment plan and evaluating patients’ prognosis. PMID:26644972

  15. Accuracy of finite element analyses of CT scans in predictions of vertebral failure patterns under axial compression and anterior flexion.

    PubMed

    Jackman, Timothy M; DelMonaco, Alex M; Morgan, Elise F

    2016-01-25

    Finite element (FE) models built from quantitative computed tomography (QCT) scans can provide patient-specific estimates of bone strength and fracture risk in the spine. While prior studies demonstrate accurate QCT-based FE predictions of vertebral stiffness and strength, the accuracy of the predicted failure patterns, i.e., the locations where failure occurs within the vertebra and the way in which the vertebra deforms as failure progresses, is less clear. This study used digital volume correlation (DVC) analyses of time-lapse micro-computed tomography (μCT) images acquired during mechanical testing (compression and anterior flexion) of thoracic spine segments (T7-T9, n=28) to measure displacements occurring throughout the T8 vertebral body at the ultimate point. These displacements were compared to those simulated by QCT-based FE analyses of T8. We hypothesized that the FE predictions would be more accurate when the boundary conditions are based on measurements of pressure distributions within intervertebral discs of similar level of disc degeneration vs. boundary conditions representing rigid platens. The FE simulations captured some of the general, qualitative features of the failure patterns; however, displacement errors ranged 12-279%. Contrary to our hypothesis, no differences in displacement errors were found when using boundary conditions representing measurements of disc pressure vs. rigid platens. The smallest displacement errors were obtained using boundary conditions that were measured directly by DVC at the T8 endplates. These findings indicate that further work is needed to develop methods of identifying physiological loading conditions for the vertebral body, for the purpose of achieving robust, patient-specific FE analyses of failure mechanisms. PMID:26792288

  16. Health literacy and global cognitive function predict e-mail but not internet use in heart failure patients.

    PubMed

    Schprechman, Jared P; Gathright, Emily C; Goldstein, Carly M; Guerini, Kate A; Dolansky, Mary A; Redle, Joseph; Hughes, Joel W

    2013-01-01

    Background. The internet offers a potential for improving patient knowledge, and e-mail may be used in patient communication with providers. However, barriers to internet and e-mail use, such as low health literacy and cognitive impairment, may prevent patients from using technological resources. Purpose. We investigated whether health literacy, heart failure knowledge, and cognitive function were related to internet and e-mail use in older adults with heart failure (HF). Methods. Older adults (N = 119) with heart failure (69.84 ± 9.09 years) completed measures of health literacy, heart failure knowledge, cognitive functioning, and internet use in a cross-sectional study. Results. Internet and e-mail use were reported in 78.2% and 71.4% of this sample of patients with HF, respectively. Controlling for age and education, logistic regression analyses indicated that higher health literacy predicted e-mail (P < .05) but not internet use. Global cognitive function predicted e-mail (P < .05) but not internet use. Only 45% used the Internet to obtain information on HF and internet use was not associated with greater HF knowledge. Conclusions. The majority of HF patients use the internet and e-mail, but poor health literacy and cognitive impairment may prevent some patients from accessing these resources. Future studies that examine specific internet and email interventions to increase HF knowledge are needed. PMID:24282634

  17. Health Literacy and Global Cognitive Function Predict E-Mail but Not Internet Use in Heart Failure Patients

    PubMed Central

    Schprechman, Jared P.; Gathright, Emily C.; Goldstein, Carly M.; Guerini, Kate A.; Dolansky, Mary A.; Redle, Joseph; Hughes, Joel W.

    2013-01-01

    Background. The internet offers a potential for improving patient knowledge, and e-mail may be used in patient communication with providers. However, barriers to internet and e-mail use, such as low health literacy and cognitive impairment, may prevent patients from using technological resources. Purpose. We investigated whether health literacy, heart failure knowledge, and cognitive function were related to internet and e-mail use in older adults with heart failure (HF). Methods. Older adults (N = 119) with heart failure (69.84 ± 9.09 years) completed measures of health literacy, heart failure knowledge, cognitive functioning, and internet use in a cross-sectional study. Results. Internet and e-mail use were reported in 78.2% and 71.4% of this sample of patients with HF, respectively. Controlling for age and education, logistic regression analyses indicated that higher health literacy predicted e-mail (P < .05) but not internet use. Global cognitive function predicted e-mail (P < .05) but not internet use. Only 45% used the Internet to obtain information on HF and internet use was not associated with greater HF knowledge. Conclusions. The majority of HF patients use the internet and e-mail, but poor health literacy and cognitive impairment may prevent some patients from accessing these resources. Future studies that examine specific internet and email interventions to increase HF knowledge are needed. PMID:24282634

  18. Deformation, Failure, and Fatigue Life of SiC/Ti-15-3 Laminates Accurately Predicted by MAC/GMC

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bednarcyk, Brett A.; Arnold, Steven M.

    2002-01-01

    NASA Glenn Research Center's Micromechanics Analysis Code with Generalized Method of Cells (MAC/GMC) (ref.1) has been extended to enable fully coupled macro-micro deformation, failure, and fatigue life predictions for advanced metal matrix, ceramic matrix, and polymer matrix composites. Because of the multiaxial nature of the code's underlying micromechanics model, GMC--which allows the incorporation of complex local inelastic constitutive models--MAC/GMC finds its most important application in metal matrix composites, like the SiC/Ti-15-3 composite examined here. Furthermore, since GMC predicts the microscale fields within each constituent of the composite material, submodels for local effects such as fiber breakage, interfacial debonding, and matrix fatigue damage can and have been built into MAC/GMC. The present application of MAC/GMC highlights the combination of these features, which has enabled the accurate modeling of the deformation, failure, and life of titanium matrix composites.

  19. Exercise End-Tidal CO2 Predicts Central Sleep Apnea in Patients With Heart Failure

    PubMed Central

    Cundrle, Ivan; Somers, Virend K.; Johnson, Bruce D.; Scott, Christopher G.

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Increased CO2 chemosensitivity and augmented exercise ventilation are characteristic of patients with heart failure (HF) with central sleep apnea (CSA). The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that decreased end-tidal CO2 by cardiopulmonary exercise testing predicts CSA in patients with HF. METHODS: Consecutive ambulatory patients with New York Heart Association II to III HF were prospectively evaluated by CO2 chemosensitivity by rebreathe, cardiopulmonary exercise testing, and polysomnography (PSG). Subjects were classified as having either CSA (n = 20) or no sleep apnea (n = 13) by PSG; a central apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) ≥ 5 was used to define CSA. Subgroups were compared by t test or Mann-Whitney test and data summarized as mean ± SD. P < .05 was considered significant. RESULTS: At rest, subjects with CSA had higher central CO2 chemosensitivity (Δminute ventilation [V.e]/Δpartial pressure of end-tidal CO2 [Petco2], 2.3 ± 1.0 L/min/mm Hg vs 1.6 ± 0.4 L/min/mm Hg, P = .02) and V.e (15 ± 7 L/min vs 10 ± 3 L/min, P = .02) and lower Petco2 (31 ± 4 mm Hg vs 35 ± 4 mm Hg, P < .01) than control subjects. At peak exercise, the ventilatory equivalents per expired CO2 (V.e/V.co2) was higher (43 ± 9 vs 33 ± 6, P < .01) and Petco2 lower (29 ± 6 mm Hg vs 36 ± 5 mm Hg, P < .01) in subjects with CSA. In addition, CO2 chemosensitivity, peak exercise V.e/V.co2, and Petco2 were independently correlated with CSA severity as quantified by the AHI (P < .05). Peak exercise Petco2 was most strongly associated with CSA (OR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.08-1.54; P = .01; area under the curve, 0.88). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with HF and CSA, ventilatory drive is increased while awake at rest and during exercise and associated with heightened CO2 chemosensitivity and decreased arterial CO2 set point. PMID:25742609

  20. A longitudinal linear model of patient characteristics to predict failure to attend an inner-city chronic pain clinic

    PubMed Central

    Shaparin, N; White, RS; Andreae, MH; Hall, CB; Kaufman, AG

    2014-01-01

    Patients often fail to attend appointments in chronic pain clinics for unknown reasons. We hypothesized that certain patient characteristics predict failure to attend scheduled appointments pointing to systematic barriers to access chronic pain services for certain underserved populations. We collected retrospective data from a longitudinal observational cohort of patients at an academic pain clinic in Newark, New Jersey. To examine the effect of demographic factors on appointment status, we fit a marginal logistic regression using generalized estimating equations with exchangeable correlation. 1394 patients with 3488 total encounters between January 1, 2006 and December 31, 2009 were included. Spanish spoken as a primary language (alternatively Hispanic or other race) and living between five and ten miles from the clinic were associated with reduced odds of arriving for an appointment; making an appointment for a particular complaint such as cancer pain or back pain, an interventional pain procedure scheduled in connection with the appointment, unemployed status, and continuity of care (as measured by office visit number) were associated with increased odds of arriving. Spanish spoken as primary language and distance to the pain clinic predicted failure to attend a scheduled appointment in our cohort. If these constitute systematic barriers to access, they may be amendable to targeted interventions. Perspective We identified certain patient characteristics, specifically Spanish spoken as primary language and geographic distance from the clinic, that predict failure to attend an inner-city chronic pain clinic. These identified barriers to access chronic pain services may be modifiable by simple cost effective interventions. PMID:24747766

  1. A comparative study of early and late extubation following transoral odontoidectomy and posterior fixation

    PubMed Central

    Marda, Manish; Pandia, Mihir Prakash; Rath, Girija Prasad; Kale, Shashank Sharad; Dash, Harihara

    2016-01-01

    Background and Aims: Elective ventilation is the usual practice after transoral odontoidectomy (TOO) and posterior fixation. This practice of elective ventilation is not based on any evidence. The primary objective of our study was to find out the difference in oxygenation and ventilation in patients extubated early compared to those extubated late after TOO and posterior fixation. The secondary objectives were to compare the length of Intensive Care Unit (ICU)/hospital stay and pulmonary complications between the two groups. Material and Methods: After TOO and posterior fixation, patients were either extubated in the operating room (Group E) or extubated next day (Group D). The oxygenation (PaO2:FiO2 ratio) and ventilation (PaCO2) of the two groups before surgery, at 30 min and at 6/12/24 and 48 h after extubation were compared. Complications, durations of ICU and hospital stay were noted. Results: The base-line PaO2:FiO2 and PaCO2 was comparable between the groups. No significant change in the PaO2:FiO2 was noted in the postoperative period in either group as compared to the preoperative values. Except for at 12 h after surgery, there was no significant difference between the two groups at various time intervals. No significant change in the PaCO2 level was seen during the study period in either group. PaCO2 measured at 30 min after surgery was more in Group E (37.5 ± 3.2 mmHg in Group E vs. 34.6 ± 2.9 mmHg in Group D), otherwise there was no significant difference between the two groups at various time intervals. One patient in Group E (7.1%) and two patients in Group D (13%) developed postoperative respiratory complication, but the difference was not statistically significant. The mean ICU stay (Group D = 42 ± 25 h vs. Group E = 25.1 ± 16.9 h) and mean hospital stay (Group D = 9.9 ± 4 days vs. Group E = 7.6 ± 2.2 days) were longer in Group D patients. Conclusion: Ventilation and oxygenation in the postoperative period in patients undergoing TOO and

  2. Low-frequency nevirapine resistance at multiple sites may predict treatment failure in infants on nevirapine-based treatment

    PubMed Central

    Lehman, Dara A.; Wanalwa, Dalton C.; McCoy, Connor O.; Matsen, Frederick A.; Langat, Agnes; Chohan, Bhavna H.; Benki-Nugent, Sarah; Custers-Allen, Rebecca; Bushman, Frederic D.; John-Stewart, Grace C.; Overbaugh, Julie

    2012-01-01

    Background Resistance commonly arises in infants exposed to single-dose nevirapine (sdNVP) for prevention of mother to child transmission (PMTCT). While K103N and Y181C are common following sdNVP, multiple other mutations also confer NVP-resistance. It remains unclear whether specific NVP-resistance mutations or combinations of mutations predict virologic failure in infants when present at low frequencies prior to NVP-based treatment. Methods Twenty sdNVP-exposed infants who were subsequently treated with NVP-based highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) were examined. Pre-treatment plasma samples were tested for the presence of NVP-resistance mutations by allele-specific PCR (ASPCR) for K103N and Y181C and ultra-deep pyrosequencing (UDPS) for all primary NVP mutations. Viral levels were determined every 3 months for up to 24months on NVP-HAART. Cox proportional hazard models were used to determine correlates of viral failure. Results The NVP resistance mutations K103N or Y181C were detected in pre-treatment plasma samples in 6 infants by ASPCR. NVP resistance at these or other sites was detectable by UDPS in 10 out of 20 infants tested. Virologic failure occurred in 50% of infants with any NVP resistance mutations detected, while only 20% of infants without resistance experienced viral failure, but the difference was not significant (p=0.19). An increase in the number of NVP resistance mutations detectable by UDPS in an infant was significantly associated with an increased risk of virologic failure (HR=1.79 (95%CI: 1.07, 2.99), p=0.027). Conclusions Low frequencies of multiple NVP resistance mutations, in addition to K103N and Y181C, present in infants before NVP-based treatment may predict treatment outcome. PMID:22395670

  3. Predictive factors for renal failure and a control and treatment algorithm

    PubMed Central

    Cerqueira, Denise de Paula; Tavares, José Roberto; Machado, Regimar Carla

    2014-01-01

    Objectives to evaluate the renal function of patients in an intensive care unit, to identify the predisposing factors for the development of renal failure, and to develop an algorithm to help in the control of the disease. Method exploratory, descriptive, prospective study with a quantitative approach. Results a total of 30 patients (75.0%) were diagnosed with kidney failure and the main factors associated with this disease were: advanced age, systemic arterial hypertension, diabetes mellitus, lung diseases, and antibiotic use. Of these, 23 patients (76.6%) showed a reduction in creatinine clearance in the first 24 hours of hospitalization. Conclusion a decline in renal function was observed in a significant number of subjects, therefore, an algorithm was developed with the aim of helping in the control of renal failure in a practical and functional way. PMID:26107827

  4. Is there a way to predict failure after direct vision internal urethrotomy for single and short bulbar urethral strictures?

    PubMed Central

    Harraz, Ahmed M.; El-Assmy, Ahmed; Mahmoud, Osama; Elbakry, Amr A.; Tharwat, Mohamed; Omar, Helmy; Farg, Hashim; Laymon, Mahmoud; Mosbah, Ahmed

    2015-01-01

    Objective To identify patient and stricture characteristics predicting failure after direct vision internal urethrotomy (DVIU) for single and short (<2 cm) bulbar urethral strictures. Patients and methods We retrospectively analysed the records of adult patients who underwent DVIU between January 2002 and 2013. The patients’ demographics and stricture characteristics were analysed. The primary outcome was procedure failure, defined as the need for regular self-dilatation (RSD), redo DVIU or substitution urethroplasty. Predictors of failure were analysed. Results In all, 430 adult patients with a mean (SD) age of 50 (15) years were included. The main causes of stricture were idiopathic followed by iatrogenic in 51.6% and 26.3% of patients, respectively. Most patients presented with obstructive lower urinary tract symptoms (68.9%) and strictures were proximal bulbar, i.e. just close to the external urethral sphincter, in 35.3%. The median (range) follow-up duration was 29 (3–132) months. In all, 250 (58.1%) patients did not require any further instrumentation, while RSD was maintained in 116 (27%) patients, including 28 (6.5%) who required a redo DVIU or urethroplasty. In 64 (6.5%) patients, a redo DVIU or urethroplasty was performed. On multivariate analysis, older age at presentation [odds ratio (OR) 1.017; P = 0.03], obesity (OR 1.664; P = 0.015), and idiopathic strictures (OR 3.107; P = 0.035) were independent predictors of failure after DVIU. Conclusion The failure rate after DVIU accounted for 41.8% of our present cohort with older age at presentation, obesity, and idiopathic strictures independent predictors of failure after DVIU. This information is important in counselling patients before surgery. PMID:26609447

  5. A Novel MiRNA-Based Predictive Model for Biochemical Failure Following Post-Prostatectomy Salvage Radiation Therapy

    PubMed Central

    Stegmaier, Petra; Drendel, Vanessa; Mo, Xiaokui; Ling, Stella; Fabian, Denise; Manring, Isabel; Jilg, Cordula A.; Schultze-Seemann, Wolfgang; McNulty, Maureen; Zynger, Debra L.; Martin, Douglas; White, Julia; Werner, Martin; Grosu, Anca L.; Chakravarti, Arnab

    2015-01-01

    Purpose To develop a microRNA (miRNA)-based predictive model for prostate cancer patients of 1) time to biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy and 2) biochemical recurrence after salvage radiation therapy following documented biochemical disease progression post-radical prostatectomy. Methods Forty three patients who had undergone salvage radiation therapy following biochemical failure after radical prostatectomy with greater than 4 years of follow-up data were identified. Formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue blocks were collected for all patients and total RNA was isolated from 1mm cores enriched for tumor (>70%). Eight hundred miRNAs were analyzed simultaneously using the nCounter human miRNA v2 assay (NanoString Technologies; Seattle, WA). Univariate and multivariate Cox proportion hazards regression models as well as receiver operating characteristics were used to identify statistically significant miRNAs that were predictive of biochemical recurrence. Results Eighty eight miRNAs were identified to be significantly (p<0.05) associated with biochemical failure post-prostatectomy by multivariate analysis and clustered into two groups that correlated with early (≤ 36 months) versus late recurrence (>36 months). Nine miRNAs were identified to be significantly (p<0.05) associated by multivariate analysis with biochemical failure after salvage radiation therapy. A new predictive model for biochemical recurrence after salvage radiation therapy was developed; this model consisted of miR-4516 and miR-601 together with, Gleason score, and lymph node status. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was improved to 0.83 compared to that of 0.66 for Gleason score and lymph node status alone. Conclusion miRNA signatures can distinguish patients who fail soon after radical prostatectomy versus late failures, giving insight into which patients may need adjuvant therapy. Notably, two novel miRNAs (miR-4516 and miR-601) were identified that significantly improve

  6. On the development of life prediction methodologies for the failure of human teeth

    SciTech Connect

    Nalla, R.K.; Imbeni, V.; Kinney, J.H.; Marshall, S.J.; Ritchie, R.O.

    2002-09-18

    Human dentin is known to be susceptible to failure under cyclic loading. Surprisingly, there are few reports that quantify the effect of such loading, considering the fact that a typical tooth experiences a million or so loading cycles annually. In the present study, a systematic investigation is described of the effects of prolonged cyclic loading on human dentin in a simulated physiological environment. In vitro stress-life (S/N) data are discussed in the context of possible mechanisms of fatigue damage and failure.

  7. Microstructure-Based Constitutive Modeling of TRIP Steel: Prediction of Ductility and Failure Modes under Different Loading Conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Choi, Kyoo Sil; Liu, Wenning N.; Sun, Xin; Khaleel, Mohammad A.

    2009-05-01

    In this study, an advanced micromechanics-based finite element model is developed based on the actual microstructure of a TRIP (TRansformation-Induced Plasticity) 800 steel to model complex deformation behavior of TRIP steels, including its ductile failure behaviors. The evolution of volume fraction of retained austenite during loading and the mechanical properties of the constituent phases of the TRIP 800 steel are obtained from the synchrotron-based in-situ high-energy X-ray diffraction (HEXRD) experiments and a self-consistent (SC) model. The ductile failure of the TRIP 800 under different loading conditions is predicted in the form of plastic strain localization without any prescribed failure criteria for the individual phases. The computational results suggest that the response of the microstructure-based representative volume element (RVE) well represents the overall macroscopic behavior of the deformed TRIP 800 steel under different loading and boundary conditions. The methodology described in this study may be extended for studying the ultimate ductile failure mechanisms of TRIP steels as well as the effects of the various processing parameters on the macroscopic behaviors of TRIP steels.

  8. Seismic energy data analysis of Merapi volcano to test the eruption time prediction using materials failure forecast method (FFM)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anggraeni, Novia Antika

    2015-04-01

    The test of eruption time prediction is an effort to prepare volcanic disaster mitigation, especially in the volcano's inhabited slope area, such as Merapi Volcano. The test can be conducted by observing the increase of volcanic activity, such as seismicity degree, deformation and SO2 gas emission. One of methods that can be used to predict the time of eruption is Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM) is a predictive method to determine the time of volcanic eruption which was introduced by Voight (1988). This method requires an increase in the rate of change, or acceleration of the observed volcanic activity parameters. The parameter used in this study is the seismic energy value of Merapi Volcano from 1990 - 2012. The data was plotted in form of graphs of seismic energy rate inverse versus time with FFM graphical technique approach uses simple linear regression. The data quality control used to increase the time precision employs the data correlation coefficient value of the seismic energy rate inverse versus time. From the results of graph analysis, the precision of prediction time toward the real time of eruption vary between -2.86 up to 5.49 days.

  9. Seismic energy data analysis of Merapi volcano to test the eruption time prediction using materials failure forecast method (FFM)

    SciTech Connect

    Anggraeni, Novia Antika

    2015-04-24

    The test of eruption time prediction is an effort to prepare volcanic disaster mitigation, especially in the volcano’s inhabited slope area, such as Merapi Volcano. The test can be conducted by observing the increase of volcanic activity, such as seismicity degree, deformation and SO2 gas emission. One of methods that can be used to predict the time of eruption is Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM) is a predictive method to determine the time of volcanic eruption which was introduced by Voight (1988). This method requires an increase in the rate of change, or acceleration of the observed volcanic activity parameters. The parameter used in this study is the seismic energy value of Merapi Volcano from 1990 – 2012. The data was plotted in form of graphs of seismic energy rate inverse versus time with FFM graphical technique approach uses simple linear regression. The data quality control used to increase the time precision employs the data correlation coefficient value of the seismic energy rate inverse versus time. From the results of graph analysis, the precision of prediction time toward the real time of eruption vary between −2.86 up to 5.49 days.

  10. Predicting Student Nurse Academic Failures: An Analysis of Four Baccalaureate Classes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wold, Jean E.; Worth, Charles

    A study was done of pre-admission or early performance predictors of persistence versus academic failure among baccalaureate program nursing students. As part of a larger longitudinal research project, 155 students from four successive classes of students admitted to the program were studied, using multiple predictor and criterion variables. The…

  11. Predicting Success, Preventing Failure: An Investigation of the California High School Exit Exam

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zau, Andrew C.; Betts, Julian R.

    2008-01-01

    Many educators, parents, and policymakers continue to call for reforms to the California High School Exit Exam (CAHSEE), citing concern about the 10 percent of California students who do not graduate because of their failure to pass the test. By law, current funding for tutoring those at risk of failing the CAHSEE is targeted at those in grade 12…

  12. Predictive failure analysis: planning for the worst so that it never happens!

    PubMed

    Hipple, Jack

    2008-01-01

    This article reviews an alternative approach to failure analysis involving a deliberate saboteurial approach rather than a checklist approach to disaster and emergency preparedness. This process is in the form of an algorithm that is easily applied to any planning situation. PMID:18091086

  13. An Evolutionary Algorithm for Feature Subset Selection in Hard Disk Drive Failure Prediction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bhasin, Harpreet

    2011-01-01

    Hard disk drives are used in everyday life to store critical data. Although they are reliable, failure of a hard disk drive can be catastrophic, especially in applications like medicine, banking, air traffic control systems, missile guidance systems, computer numerical controlled machines, and more. The use of Self-Monitoring, Analysis and…

  14. Early Treatment Outcome in Failure to Thrive: Predictions from a Transactional Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Drotar, Dennis

    Children diagnosed with environmentally based failure to thrive early during their first year of life were seen at 12 and 18 months for assessment of psychological development (cognition, language, symbolic play, and behavior during testing). Based on a transactional model of outcome, factors reflecting biological vulnerability (wasting and…

  15. A data-driven feature extraction framework for predicting the severity of condition of congestive heart failure patients.

    PubMed

    Sideris, Costas; Alshurafa, Nabil; Pourhomayoun, Mohammad; Shahmohammadi, Farhad; Samy, Lauren; Sarrafzadeh, Majid

    2015-08-01

    In this paper, we propose a novel methodology for utilizing disease diagnostic information to predict severity of condition for Congestive Heart Failure (CHF) patients. Our methodology relies on a novel, clustering-based, feature extraction framework using disease diagnostic information. To reduce the dimensionality we identify disease clusters using cooccurence frequencies. We then utilize these clusters as features to predict patient severity of condition. We build our clustering and feature extraction algorithm using the 2012 National Inpatient Sample (NIS), Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) which contains 7 million discharge records and ICD-9-CM codes. The proposed framework is tested on Ronald Reagan UCLA Medical Center Electronic Health Records (EHR) from 3041 patients. We compare our cluster-based feature set with another that incorporates the Charlson comorbidity score as a feature and demonstrate an accuracy improvement of up to 14% in the predictability of the severity of condition. PMID:26736808

  16. Predicting the velocity and azimuth of fragments generated by the range destruction or random failure of rocket casings and tankage

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eck, Marshall; Mukunda, Meera

    1988-01-01

    A calculational method is described which provides a powerful tool for predicting solid rocket motor (SRM) casing and liquid rocket tankage fragmentation response. The approach properly partitions the available impulse to each major system-mass component. It uses the Pisces code developed by Physics International to couple the forces generated by an Eulerian-modeled gas flow field to a Lagrangian-modeled fuel and casing system. The details of the predictive analytical modeling process and the development of normalized relations for momentum partition as a function of SRM burn time and initial geometry are discussed. Methods for applying similar modeling techniques to liquid-tankage-overpressure failures are also discussed. Good agreement between predictions and observations are obtained for five specific events.

  17. Risk Prediction Models of Locoregional Failure After Radical Cystectomy for Urothelial Carcinoma: External Validation in a Cohort of Korean Patients

    SciTech Connect

    Ku, Ja Hyeon; Kim, Myong; Jeong, Chang Wook; Kwak, Cheol; Kim, Hyeon Hoe

    2014-08-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the predictive accuracy and general applicability of the locoregional failure model in a different cohort of patients treated with radical cystectomy. Methods and Materials: A total of 398 patients were included in the analysis. Death and isolated distant metastasis were considered competing events, and patients without any events were censored at the time of last follow-up. The model included the 3 variables pT classification, the number of lymph nodes identified, and margin status, as follows: low risk (≤pT2), intermediate risk (≥pT3 with ≥10 nodes removed and negative margins), and high risk (≥pT3 with <10 nodes removed or positive margins). Results: The bootstrap-corrected concordance index of the model 5 years after radical cystectomy was 66.2%. When the risk stratification was applied to the validation cohort, the 5-year locoregional failure estimates were 8.3%, 21.2%, and 46.3% for the low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups, respectively. The risk of locoregional failure differed significantly between the low-risk and intermediate-risk groups (subhazard ratio [SHR], 2.63; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.35-5.11; P<.001) and between the low-risk and high-risk groups (SHR, 4.28; 95% CI, 2.17-8.45; P<.001). Although decision curves were appropriately affected by the incidence of the competing risk, decisions about the value of the models are not likely to be affected because the model remains of value over a wide range of threshold probabilities. Conclusions: The model is not completely accurate, but it demonstrates a modest level of discrimination, adequate calibration, and meaningful net benefit gain for prediction of locoregional failure after radical cystectomy.

  18. Predicting the velocity and azimuth of fragments generated by the range destruction or random failure of rocket casings and tankage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eck, M.; Mukunda, M.

    The proliferation of space vehicle launch sites and the projected utilization of these facilities portends an increase in the number of on-pad, ascent, and on-orbit solid-rocket motor (SRM) casings and liquid-rocket tanks which will randomly fail or will fail from range destruct actions. Beyond the obvious safety implications, these failures may have serious resource implications for mission system and facility planners. SRM-casing failures and liquid-rocket tankage failures result in the generation of large, high velocity fragments which may be serious threats to the safety of launch support personnel if proper bunkers and exclusion areas are not provided. In addition, these fragments may be indirect threats to the general public's safety if they encounter hazardous spacecraft payloads which have not been designed to withstand shrapnel of this caliber. They may also become threats to other spacecraft if, by failing on-orbit, they add to the ever increasing space-junk collision cross-section. Most prior attempts to assess the velocity of fragments from failed SRM casings have simply assigned the available chamber impulse to available casing and fuel mass and solved the resulting momentum balance for velocity. This method may predict a fragment velocity which is high or low by a factor of two depending on the ratio of fuel to casing mass extant at the time of failure. Recognizing the limitations of existing methods, the authors devised an analytical approach which properly partitions the available impulse to each major system-mass component. This approach uses the Physics International developed PISCES code to couple the forces generated by an Eulerian modeled gas flow field to a Lagrangian modeled fuel and casing system. The details of a predictive analytical modeling process as well as the development of normalized relations for momentum partition as a function of SRM burn time and initial geometry are discussed in this paper. Methods for applying similar modeling

  19. A novel prediction methodology for detecting failures and instabilities in directional wireless networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coleman, David M.; Milner, Stuart D.; Davis, Christopher C.

    2012-10-01

    Even though advances in wireless technology have yielded lower power consumption, higher data rates, and numerous other improvements, the ability to develop a proactive strategy towards handling degradations and failures in directional wireless networks has evaded the research community. In this paper, we introduce a methodology using an analogy to molecular systems in which a directional wireless network utilizing free space optical (FSO) or RF links is modeled as a molecule whose links can grow/retract similarly to bonds. A normal mode analysis (NMA) is performed to identify link instabilities (degradations and failures) and an N-dimensional potential energy surface (PES) is derived with respect to network and environmental parameters to aide in the detection of when a new topology is available ahead of the topology computation stage. Together, the NMA and PES form a basis for a proactive network methodology aimed at improving performance in directional wireless networks.

  20. Texture feature analysis for prediction of postoperative liver failure prior to surgery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Simpson, Amber L.; Do, Richard K.; Parada, E. Patricia; Miga, Michael I.; Jarnagin, William R.

    2014-03-01

    Texture analysis of preoperative CT images of the liver is undertaken in this study. Standard texture features were extracted from portal-venous phase contrast-enhanced CT scans of 36 patients prior to major hepatic resection and correlated to postoperative liver failure. Differences between patients with and without postoperative liver failure were statistically significant for contrast (measure of local variation), correlation (linear dependency of gray levels on neighboring pixels), cluster prominence (asymmetry), and normalized inverse difference moment (local homogeneity). Though texture features have been used to diagnose and characterize lesions, to our knowledge, parenchymal statistical variation has not been quantified and studied. We demonstrate that texture analysis is a valuable tool for quantifying liver function prior to surgery, which may help to identify and change the preoperative management of patients at higher risk for overall morbidity.

  1. Comparative Study on Failure Prediction in Warm Forming Processes of Mg Alloy Sheet by the FEM and Ductile Fracture Criteria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Sang-Woo; Lee, Young-Seon

    2014-04-01

    An important concern in metal forming is whether the desired deformation can be accomplished without any failure of the material, even at elevated temperatures. This paper describes the utilization of ductile fracture criteria in conjunction with the finite element (FE) method for predicting the onset of fracture in warm metal working processes of magnesium alloy sheets. The uniaxial tensile tests of AZ31 alloy sheets with a thickness of 3 mm and FE simulations were performed to calculate the critical damage values for three kinds of ductile fracture criteria. The critical damage values for each criterion were expressed as the function of strain rate at various temperatures. In order to find out the best criterion for failure prediction, Erichsen cupping tests under isothermal conditions were carried out at various temperatures and punch velocities. Based on the plastic deformation histories obtained from FE analysis of the Erichsen cupping tests and the critical damage value curves, the initiation time and location of fracture were predicted under bi-axial tensile conditions. As a result, Cockcroft-Latham's criterion showed good agreement with the experiments.

  2. Crisis Management of Accidental Extubation in a Prone-Positioned Patient with Klippel-Feil Syndrome.

    PubMed

    Spond, Matthew; Burns, Tyler; Rosenbaum, Thea; Lienhart, Kristen

    2016-06-15

    We present the case of an accidental extubation in a prone-positioned patient with a challenging airway because of Klippel-Feil syndrome and previous cervical spine fusions. The surgical procedure was well underway when this occurred, which added substantially to the difficulties produced by this event. We herein highlight the corrective steps we took in our case. We also recommend the need for a comprehensive preoperative briefing with all operating room personnel together with an action plan for how to prevent this particular scenario. PMID:27301052

  3. Ply level failure prediction of carbon fibre reinforced laminated composite panels subjected to low velocity drop-weight impact using adaptive meshing techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farooq, Umar; Myler, Peter

    2014-09-01

    This work is concerned with physical testing and numerical simulations of flat and round nose drop-weight impact of carbon fibre-reinforced laminate composite panels to predict ply level failure. Majority of the existing studies on impact of composites by spherical nose impactors are experimental, computational models are simplified, and based on classical laminated plate theories where contributions of through-thickness stresses are neglected. Present work considers flat nose impact and contributions from through-thickness stresses and is mainly simulation based. A computational model was developed in ABAQUS™ software using adaptive meshing techniques. Simulation produced (2D model) stresses were numerically integrated using MATALB™ code to predict through-thickness (3D) stresses. Through-the-thickness stresses were then utilised in advanced failure criteria coded in MATLAB™ software to predict ply level failures. Simulation produced results demonstrate that the computational model can efficiently and effectively predict ply-by-ply failure status of relatively thick laminates.

  4. Serum sodium based modification of the MELD does not improve prediction of outcome in acute liver failure

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Acute liver failure (ALF) is a devastating clinical syndrome with a high mortality rate. The MELD score has been implied as a prognostic tool in ALF. Hyponatremia is associated with lethal outcome in ALF. Inclusion of serum sodium (Na) into the MELD score was found to improve its predictive value in cirrhotic patients. Therefore the aim of this study was to determine whether inclusion of serum Na improves the predictive value of MELD in ALF compared to established criteria. Methods In a prospective single center study (11/2006–12/2010), we recruited 108 consecutive ALF patients (64% females / 36% males), who met the criteria defined by the “Acute Liver Failure Study Group Germany”. Upon admission, clinical and laboratory data were collected, King’s College Criteria (KCC), Model of End Stage Liver Disease score (MELD), and serum sodium based modifications like the MELD-Na score and the United Kingdom Model of End Stage Liver Disease score (UKELD) were calculated and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve analyses were performed regarding the prediction of spontaneous recovery (SR) or non-spontaneous recovery (NSR; death or transplantation). Results Serum bilirubin was of no prognostic value in ALF, and Na also failed to predict NSR in ALF. The classical MELD score was superior to sodium-based modifications and KCC. Conclusions We validated the prognostic value of MELD-Na and UKELD in ALF. Classic MELD score calculations performed superior to KCC in the prediction of NSR. Serum Na and Na-based modifications of MELD did not further improve its prognostic value. PMID:23551795

  5. A Novel Risk Stratification to Predict Local-Regional Failures in Urothelial Carcinoma of the Bladder After Radical Cystectomy

    SciTech Connect

    Baumann, Brian C.; Guzzo, Thomas J.; He Jiwei; Keefe, Stephen M.; Tucker, Kai; Bekelman, Justin E.; Hwang, Wei-Ting; Vaughn, David J.; Malkowicz, S. Bruce; Christodouleas, John P.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: Local-regional failures (LF) following radical cystectomy (RC) plus pelvic lymph node dissection (PLND) with or without chemotherapy for invasive urothelial bladder carcinoma are more common than previously reported. Adjuvant radiation therapy (RT) could reduce LF but currently has no defined role because of previously reported morbidity. Modern techniques with improved normal tissue sparing have rekindled interest in RT. We assessed the risk of LF and determined those factors that predict recurrence to facilitate patient selection for future adjuvant RT trials. Methods and Materials: From 1990-2008, 442 patients with urothelial bladder carcinoma at University of Pennsylvania were prospectively followed after RC plus PLND with or without chemotherapy with routine pelvic computed tomography (CT) or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). One hundred thirty (29%) patients received chemotherapy. LF was any pelvic failure detected before or within 3 months of distant failure. Competing risk analyses identified factors predicting increased LF risk. Results: On univariate analysis, pathologic stage {>=}pT3, <10 nodes removed, positive margins, positive nodes, hydronephrosis, lymphovascular invasion, and mixed histology significantly predicted LF; node density was marginally predictive, but use of chemotherapy, number of positive nodes, type of surgical diversion, age, gender, race, smoking history, and body mass index were not. On multivariate analysis, only stage {>=}pT3 and <10 nodes removed were significant independent LF predictors with hazard ratios of 3.17 and 2.37, respectively (P<.01). Analysis identified 3 patient subgroups with significantly different LF risks: low-risk ({<=}pT2), intermediate-risk ({>=}pT3 and {>=}10 nodes removed), and high-risk ({>=}pT3 and <10 nodes) with 5-year LF rates of 8%, 23%, and 42%, respectively (P<.01). Conclusions: This series using routine CT and MRI surveillance to detect LF confirms that such failures are relatively common

  6. Prediction of ppm level electrical failure by using physical variation analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hou, Hsin-Ming; Kung, Ji-Fu; Hsu, Y.-B.; Yamazaki, Y.; Maruyama, Kotaro; Toyoshima, Yuya; Chen, Chu-en

    2016-03-01

    their spatial correlation distance. For local variations (LV) there is no correlation, whereas for global variations (GV) the correlation distance is very large [7]-[9]. This is the first time to certificate the validation of spatial distribution from the affordable bias contour big data fundamental infrastructures. And then apply statistical techniques to dig out the variation sources. The GV come from systematic issue, which could be compensated by adaptive LT condition or OPC correction. But LV comes from random issue, which being considered as intrinsic problem such as structure, material, tool capability… etc. In this paper studying, we can find out the advanced technology node SRAM contact CD local variation (LV) dominates in total variation, about 70%. It often plays significant in-line real time catching WP-DPMO role of the product yield loss, especially for wafer edge is the worst loss within wafer distribution and causes serious reliability concern. The major root cause of variations comes from the PR material induced burr defect (LV), the second one comes from GV enhanced wafer edge short opportunity, which being attributed to three factors, first one factor is wafer edge CD deliberated enlargement for yield improvement as shown in Fig. 10. Second factor is overlaps/AA shifts due to tool capability dealing with incoming wafer's war page issue and optical periphery layout dependent working pitch issue as shown in Fig. 9 (1)., the last factor comes from wafer edge burr enhanced by wafer edge larger Photo Resistance (PR) spin centrifugal force. After implementing KPIs such as GV related AA/CD indexes as shown in Fig. 9 (1) and 10, respectively, and LV related burr index as shown in Fig. 11., we can construct the parts per million (PPM) level short probability model via multi-variables regression, canonical correlation analysis and logistic transformation. The model provides prediction of PPM level electrical failure by using in-line real time physical

  7. Predicting the occurrence of mixed mode failure associated with hydraulic fracturing, part 2 water saturated tests

    SciTech Connect

    Bauer, Stephen J.; Broome, Scott Thomas; Choens, Charles; Barrow, Perry Carl

    2015-09-14

    Seven water-saturated triaxial extension experiments were conducted on four sedimentary rocks. This experimental condition was hypothesized more representative of that existing for downhole hydrofracture and thus it may improve our understanding of the phenomena. In all tests the pore pressure was 10 MPa and confirming pressure was adjusted to achieve tensile and transitional failure mode conditions. Using previous work in this LDRD for comparison, the law of effective stress is demonstrated in extension using this sample geometry. In three of the four lithologies, no apparent chemo-mechanical effect of water is apparent, and in the fourth lithology test results indicate some chemo-mechanical effect of water.

  8. A Comparison of Logistic Regression Model and Artificial Neural Networks in Predicting of Student’s Academic Failure

    PubMed Central

    Teshnizi, Saeed Hosseini; Ayatollahi, Sayyed Mohhamad Taghi

    2015-01-01

    Background and objective: Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have recently been applied in situations where an analysis based on the logistic regression (LR) is a standard statistical approach; direct comparisons of the results, however, are seldom attempted. In this study, we compared both logistic regression models and feed-forward neural networks on the academic failure data set. Methods: The data for this study included 18 questions about study situation of 275 undergraduate students selected randomly from among nursing and midwifery and paramedic schools of Hormozgan University of Medical Sciences in 2013. Logistic regression with forward method and feed forward Artificial Neural Network with 15 neurons in hidden layer were fitted to the dataset. The accuracy of the models in predicting academic failure was compared by using ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) and classification accuracy. Results: Among nine ANNs, the ANN with 15 neurons in hidden layer was a better ANN compared with LR. The Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristics (AUROC) of the LR model and ANN with 15 neurons in hidden layers, were estimated as 0.55 and 0.89, respectively and ANN was significantly greater than the LR. The LR and ANN models respectively classified 77.5% and 84.3% of the students correctly. Conclusion: Based on this dataset, it seems the classification of the students in two groups with and without academic failure by using ANN with 15 neurons in the hidden layer is better than the LR model. PMID:26635438

  9. Early detection of heart failure with varying prediction windows by structured and unstructured data in electronic health records.

    PubMed

    Wang, Yajuan; Ng, Kenney; Byrd, Roy J; Hu, Jianying; Ebadollahi, Shahram; Daar, Zahra; deFilippi, Christopher; Steinhubl, Steven R; Stewart, Walter F

    2015-08-01

    Heart failure (HF) prevalence is increasing and is among the most costly diseases to society. Early detection of HF would provide the means to test lifestyle and pharmacologic interventions that may slow disease progression and improve patient outcomes. This study used structured and unstructured data from electronic health records (EHR) to predict onset of HF with a particular focus on how prediction accuracy varied in relation to time before diagnosis. EHR data were extracted from a single health care system and used to identify incident HF among primary care patients who received care between 2001 and 2010. A total of 1,684 incident HF cases were identified and 13,525 controls were selected from the same primary care practices. Models were compared by varying the beginning of the prediction window from 60 to 720 days before HF diagnosis. As the prediction window decreased, the performance [AUC (95% CIs)] of the predictive HF models increased from 65% (63%-66%) to 74% (73%-75%) for the unstructured, from 73% (72%-75%) to 81% (80%-83%) for the structured, and from 76% (74%-77%) to 83% (77%-85%) for the combined data. PMID:26736807

  10. What Predicts Children's Fixed and Growth Intelligence Mind-Sets? Not Their Parents' Views of Intelligence but Their Parents' Views of Failure.

    PubMed

    Haimovitz, Kyla; Dweck, Carol S

    2016-06-01

    Children's intelligence mind-sets (i.e., their beliefs about whether intelligence is fixed or malleable) robustly influence their motivation and learning. Yet, surprisingly, research has not linked parents' intelligence mind-sets to their children's. We tested the hypothesis that a different belief of parents-their failure mind-sets-may be more visible to children and therefore more prominent in shaping their beliefs. In Study 1, we found that parents can view failure as debilitating or enhancing, and that these failure mind-sets predict parenting practices and, in turn, children's intelligence mind-sets. Study 2 probed more deeply into how parents display failure mind-sets. In Study 3a, we found that children can indeed accurately perceive their parents' failure mind-sets but not their parents' intelligence mind-sets. Study 3b showed that children's perceptions of their parents' failure mind-sets also predicted their own intelligence mind-sets. Finally, Study 4 showed a causal effect of parents' failure mind-sets on their responses to their children's hypothetical failure. Overall, parents who see failure as debilitating focus on their children's performance and ability rather than on their children's learning, and their children, in turn, tend to believe that intelligence is fixed rather than malleable. PMID:27113733

  11. Predicting outflow induced by moraine failure in glacial lakes: the Lake Palcacocha case from an uncertainty perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rivas, D. S.; Somos-Valenzuela, M. A.; McKinney, D. C.; Hodges, B. R.

    2014-09-01

    Moraine dam collapse is one of the causes of Glacier Lake Outburst Floods. Available models seek to predict both moraine breach formation and lake outflow. The models depend on hydraulic, erosion, and geotechnical parameters that are mostly unknown or uncertain. This paper estimates the outflow hydrograph caused by a potential collapse of the moraine dam of Lake Palcacocha in Peru and quantifies the uncertainty of the results. The overall aim is to provide a simple and robust method of calculation of the expected outflow hydrographs that is useful for risk assessment studies. To estimate the peak outflow and failure time of the hydrograph, we assessed several available empirical equations based on lake and moraine geometries; each equation has defined confidence intervals for peak flow predictions. Complete outflow hydrographs for each peak flow condition were modeled using a~hydraulic simulation model calibrated to meet the peak flows estimated with the empirical equations. Failure time and peak flow differences between the simulations and the corresponding empirical equations were used as error parameters. Along with an expected hydrograph, lower and upper bound hydrographs were calculated for Lake Palcacocha, representing the confidence interval of the results. The method has several advantages: first, it is simple and robust. Second, it evaluates the capability of empirical equations to reproduce the conditions of the lake and moraine dam. Third, this method accounts for uncertainty in the hydrographs estimations, which makes it appropriate for risk management studies.

  12. Predicting outflow induced by moraine failure in glacial lakes: the Lake Palcacocha case from an uncertainty perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rivas, D. S.; Somos-Valenzuela, M. A.; Hodges, B. R.; McKinney, D. C.

    2015-06-01

    Moraine dam collapse is one of the causes of glacial lake outburst floods. Available models seek to predict both moraine breach formation and lake outflow. The models depend on hydraulic, erosion, and geotechnical parameters that are mostly unknown or uncertain. This paper estimates the outflow hydrograph caused by a potential erosive collapse of the moraine dam of Lake Palcacocha in Peru and quantifies the uncertainty of the results. The overall aim is to provide a simple yet hydraulically robust approach for calculating the expected outflow hydrographs that is useful for risk assessment studies. To estimate the peak outflow and failure time of the hydrograph, we assessed several available empirical equations based on lake and moraine geometries; each equation has defined confidence intervals for peak flow predictions. Complete outflow hydrographs for each peak flow condition were modeled using a hydraulic simulation model calibrated to match the peak flows estimated with the empirical equations. Failure time and peak flow differences between the simulations, and the corresponding empirical equations were used as error parameters. Along with an expected hydrograph, lower and upper bound hydrographs were calculated for Lake Palcacocha, representing the confidence interval of the results. The approach has several advantages: first, it is simple and robust. Second, it evaluates the capability of empirical equations to reproduce the conditions of the lake and moraine dam. Third, this approach accounts for uncertainty in the hydrographs estimations, which makes it appropriate for risk management studies.

  13. A Personalized BEST: Characterization of Latent Clinical Classes of Nonischemic Heart Failure That Predict Outcomes and Response to Bucindolol

    PubMed Central

    Kao, David P.; Wagner, Brandie D.; Robertson, Alastair D.; Bristow, Michael R.; Lowes, Brian D.

    2012-01-01

    Background Heart failure patients with reduced ejection fraction (HFREF) are heterogenous, and our ability to identify patients likely to respond to therapy is limited. We present a method of identifying disease subtypes using high-dimensional clinical phenotyping and latent class analysis that may be useful in personalizing prognosis and treatment in HFREF. Methods A total of 1121 patients with nonischemic HFREF from the β-blocker Evaluation of Survival Trial were categorized according to 27 clinical features. Latent class analysis was used to generate two latent class models, LCM A and B, to identify HFREF subtypes. LCM A consisted of features associated with HF pathogenesis, whereas LCM B consisted of markers of HF progression and severity. The Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) Score was also calculated for all patients. Mortality, improvement in left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) defined as an increase in LVEF ≥5% and a final LVEF of 35% after 12 months, and effect of bucindolol on both outcomes were compared across HFREF subtypes. Performance of models that included a combination of LCM subtypes and SHFM scores towards predicting mortality and LVEF response was estimated and subsequently validated using leave-one-out cross-validation and data from the Multicenter Oral Carvedilol Heart Failure Assessment Trial. Results A total of 6 subtypes were identified using LCM A and 5 subtypes using LCM B. Several subtypes resembled familiar clinical phenotypes. Prognosis, improvement in LVEF, and the effect of bucindolol treatment differed significantly between subtypes. Prediction improved with addition of both latent class models to SHFM for both 1-year mortality and LVEF response outcomes. Conclusions The combination of high-dimensional phenotyping and latent class analysis identifies subtypes of HFREF with implications for prognosis and response to specific therapies that may provide insight into mechanisms of disease. These subtypes may facilitate

  14. Risk factors for post-extubation stridor in children: the role of orotracheal cannula.

    PubMed

    Nascimento, Milena Siciliano; Prado, Cristiane; Troster, Eduardo Juan; Valério, Naiana; Alith, Marcela Batan; Almeida, João Fernando Lourenço de

    2015-01-01

    Objective To determine the risk factors associated with stridor, with special attention to the role of the cuffed orotracheal cannula. Methods Prospective analysis of all the intubated patients submitted to mechanical ventilator support from January 2008 to April 2011. The relevant factors for stridor collected were age, weight, size and type of airway tube, diagnosis, and duration of mechanical ventilation. The effects of variables on stridor were evaluated using uni- and multivariate logistic regression models. Results A total of 136 patients were included. Mean age was 1.4 year (3 days to 17 years). The mean duration of mechanical ventilation was 73.5 hours. Fifty-six patients (41.2%) presented with stridor after extubation. The total reintubation rate was 19.6% and 12.5 in patients with and without stridor, respectively. The duration of mechanical ventilation (>72 hours) was associated with a greater risk for stridor (odds ratio of 8.60; 95% confidence interval of 2.98-24.82; p<0.001). The presence of the cuffed orotracheal cannula was not associated with stridor (odds ratio of 98; 95% confidence interval of 0.46-2.06; p=0.953). Conclusion The main risk factor for stridor after extubation in our population was duration of mechanical ventilation. The presence of the cuffed orotracheal cannula was not associated with increased risk for stridor, reinforcing the use of the cuffed orotracheal cannula in children with respiratory distress. PMID:26061076

  15. Risk factors for post-extubation stridor in children: the role of orotracheal cannula

    PubMed Central

    Nascimento, Milena Siciliano; Prado, Cristiane; Troster, Eduardo Juan; Valério, Naiana; Alith, Marcela Batan; de Almeida, João Fernando Lourenço

    2015-01-01

    Objective To determine the risk factors associated with stridor, with special attention to the role of the cuffed orotracheal cannula. Methods Prospective analysis of all the intubated patients submitted to mechanical ventilator support from January 2008 to April 2011. The relevant factors for stridor collected were age, weight, size and type of airway tube, diagnosis, and duration of mechanical ventilation. The effects of variables on stridor were evaluated using uni- and multivariate logistic regression models. Results A total of 136 patients were included. Mean age was 1.4 year (3 days to 17 years). The mean duration of mechanical ventilation was 73.5 hours. Fifty-six patients (41.2%) presented with stridor after extubation. The total reintubation rate was 19.6% and 12.5 in patients with and without stridor, respectively. The duration of mechanical ventilation (>72 hours) was associated with a greater risk for stridor (odds ratio of 8.60; 95% confidence interval of 2.98-24.82; p<0.001). The presence of the cuffed orotracheal cannula was not associated with stridor (odds ratio of 98; 95% confidence interval of 0.46-2.06; p=0.953). Conclusion The main risk factor for stridor after extubation in our population was duration of mechanical ventilation. The presence of the cuffed orotracheal cannula was not associated with increased risk for stridor, reinforcing the use of the cuffed orotracheal cannula in children with respiratory distress. PMID:26061076

  16. Incremental predictive value of natriuretic peptides for prognosis in the chronic stable heart failure population: a systematic review.

    PubMed

    Don-Wauchope, Andrew C; Santaguida, Pasqualina L; Oremus, Mark; McKelvie, Robert; Ali, Usman; Brown, Judy A; Bustamam, Amy; Sohel, Nazmul; Hill, Stephen A; Booth, Ronald A; Balion, Cynthia; Raina, Parminder

    2014-08-01

    The aim of this study was to determine whether measurement of natriuretic peptides independently adds incremental predictive value for mortality and morbidity in patients with chronic stable heart failure (CSHF). We electronically searched Medline®, Embase™, AMED, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and CINAHL from 1989 to June 2012. We also searched reference lists of included articles, systematic reviews, and the gray literature. Studies were screened for eligibility criteria and assessed for methodological quality. Data were extracted on study design, population demographics, assay cutpoints, prognostic risk prediction model covariates, statistical methods, outcomes, and results. One hundred and eighty-three studies were identified as prognostic in the systematic review. From these, 15 studies (all NT-proBNP) considered incremental predictive value in CSHF subjects. Follow-up varied from 12 to 37 months. All studies presented at least one estimate of incremental predictive value of NT-proBNP relative to the base prognostic model. Using discrimination or likelihood statistics, these studies consistently showed that NT-proBNP increased model performance. Three studies used re-classification and model validation computations to establish incremental predictive value; these studies showed less consistency with respect to added value. Although there were differences in the base risk prediction models, assay cutpoints, and lengths of follow-up, there was consistency in NT-proBNP adding incremental predictive value for prognostic models in chronic stable CSHF patients. The limitations in the literature suggest that studies designed to evaluate prognostic models should be undertaken to evaluate the incremental value of natriuretic peptide as a predictor of mortality and morbidity in CSHF. PMID:25120174

  17. VISA: a computer code for predicting the probability of reactor pressure-vessel failure. [PWR

    SciTech Connect

    Stevens, D.L.; Simonen, F.A.; Strosnider, J. Jr.; Klecker, R.W.; Engel, D.W.; Johnson, K.I.

    1983-09-01

    The VISA (Vessel Integrity Simulation Analysis) code was developed as part of the NRC staff evaluation of pressurized thermal shock. VISA uses Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the failure probability of a pressurized water reactor (PWR) pressure vessel subjected to a pressure and thermal transient specified by the user. Linear elastic fracture mechanics are used to model crack initiation and propagation. parameters for initial crack size, copper content, initial RT/sub NDT/, fluence, crack-initiation fracture toughness, and arrest fracture toughness are treated as random variables. This report documents the version of VISA used in the NRC staff report (Policy Issue from J.W. Dircks to NRC Commissioners, Enclosure A: NRC Staff Evaluation of Pressurized Thermal Shock, November 1982, SECY-82-465) and includes a user's guide for the code.

  18. Modeling and Prediction of Thermal Cycle Induced Failure in Epoxy-Silica Composites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kmita, Grzegorz; Nowak, Tomasz; Sekula, Robert

    2012-02-01

    Epoxy resins filled with dielectric mineral particles are frequently used as insulating materials in power industry applications. Due to their excellent dielectric properties and relatively good thermal performance (resistance, ageing and conductivity) their usability is common and extensive. However, the mechanical performance of the resins is influenced by several factors such as resistance to crack propagation, especially in low temperature applications. This phenomenon is normally linked with appearance of two phase systems where particle filled epoxy material interacts with metallic inserts having significantly different thermal expansion coefficients. This kind of epoxy-metal interface can produce relatively high stresses in the product structure during thermal cycle loading. The paper deals with mechanical problems of power industry products and introduces the methodology for numerical modeling of failure in silica filled epoxy systems subjected to severe temperature gradients. Various aspects of material behavior modeling are covered in this article, including polymerization process, viscoelastic stress relaxation as well as stochastic cracking.

  19. Tailor-made heart simulation predicts the effect of cardiac resynchronization therapy in a canine model of heart failure.

    PubMed

    Panthee, Nirmal; Okada, Jun-ichi; Washio, Takumi; Mochizuki, Youhei; Suzuki, Ryohei; Koyama, Hidekazu; Ono, Minoru; Hisada, Toshiaki; Sugiura, Seiryo

    2016-07-01

    Despite extensive studies on clinical indices for the selection of patient candidates for cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT), approximately 30% of selected patients do not respond to this therapy. Herein, we examined whether CRT simulations based on individualized realistic three-dimensional heart models can predict the therapeutic effect of CRT in a canine model of heart failure with left bundle branch block. In four canine models of failing heart with dyssynchrony, individualized three-dimensional heart models reproducing the electromechanical activity of each animal were created based on the computer tomographic images. CRT simulations were performed for 25 patterns of three ventricular pacing lead positions. Lead positions producing the best and the worst therapeutic effects were selected in each model. The validity of predictions was tested in acute experiments in which hearts were paced from the sites identified by simulations. We found significant correlations between the experimentally observed improvement in ejection fraction (EF) and the predicted improvements in ejection fraction (P<0.01) or the maximum value of the derivative of left ventricular pressure (P<0.01). The optimal lead positions produced better outcomes compared with the worst positioning in all dogs studied, although there were significant variations in responses. Variations in ventricular wall thickness among the dogs may have contributed to these responses. Thus CRT simulations using the individualized three-dimensional heart models can predict acute hemodynamic improvement, and help determine the optimal positions of the pacing lead. PMID:26973218

  20. Falling Off Track: How Teacher-Student Relationships Predict Early High School Failure Rates.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Miller, Shazia Rafiullah

    This paper examines the relationship between the climate of teacher-student relations within a school and individual student's likelihood of freshman year success. Using administrative data from the Chicago Public Schools and survey data, researchers used hierarchical linear modeling to determine whether teacher-student climate predicts students'…

  1. Developing EHR-driven heart failure risk prediction models using CPXR(Log) with the probabilistic loss function.

    PubMed

    Taslimitehrani, Vahid; Dong, Guozhu; Pereira, Naveen L; Panahiazar, Maryam; Pathak, Jyotishman

    2016-04-01

    Computerized survival prediction in healthcare identifying the risk of disease mortality, helps healthcare providers to effectively manage their patients by providing appropriate treatment options. In this study, we propose to apply a classification algorithm, Contrast Pattern Aided Logistic Regression (CPXR(Log)) with the probabilistic loss function, to develop and validate prognostic risk models to predict 1, 2, and 5year survival in heart failure (HF) using data from electronic health records (EHRs) at Mayo Clinic. The CPXR(Log) constructs a pattern aided logistic regression model defined by several patterns and corresponding local logistic regression models. One of the models generated by CPXR(Log) achieved an AUC and accuracy of 0.94 and 0.91, respectively, and significantly outperformed prognostic models reported in prior studies. Data extracted from EHRs allowed incorporation of patient co-morbidities into our models which helped improve the performance of the CPXR(Log) models (15.9% AUC improvement), although did not improve the accuracy of the models built by other classifiers. We also propose a probabilistic loss function to determine the large error and small error instances. The new loss function used in the algorithm outperforms other functions used in the previous studies by 1% improvement in the AUC. This study revealed that using EHR data to build prediction models can be very challenging using existing classification methods due to the high dimensionality and complexity of EHR data. The risk models developed by CPXR(Log) also reveal that HF is a highly heterogeneous disease, i.e., different subgroups of HF patients require different types of considerations with their diagnosis and treatment. Our risk models provided two valuable insights for application of predictive modeling techniques in biomedicine: Logistic risk models often make systematic prediction errors, and it is prudent to use subgroup based prediction models such as those given by CPXR

  2. Combined In-Plane and Through-the-Thickness Analysis for Failure Prediction of Bolted Composite Joints

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kradinov, V.; Madenci, E.; Ambur, D. R.

    2004-01-01

    Although two-dimensional methods provide accurate predictions of contact stresses and bolt load distribution in bolted composite joints with multiple bolts, they fail to capture the effect of thickness on the strength prediction. Typically, the plies close to the interface of laminates are expected to be the most highly loaded, due to bolt deformation, and they are usually the first to fail. This study presents an analysis method to account for the variation of stresses in the thickness direction by augmenting a two-dimensional analysis with a one-dimensional through the thickness analysis. The two-dimensional in-plane solution method based on the combined complex potential and variational formulation satisfies the equilibrium equations exactly, and satisfies the boundary conditions and constraints by minimizing the total potential. Under general loading conditions, this method addresses multiple bolt configurations without requiring symmetry conditions while accounting for the contact phenomenon and the interaction among the bolts explicitly. The through-the-thickness analysis is based on the model utilizing a beam on an elastic foundation. The bolt, represented as a short beam while accounting for bending and shear deformations, rests on springs, where the spring coefficients represent the resistance of the composite laminate to bolt deformation. The combined in-plane and through-the-thickness analysis produces the bolt/hole displacement in the thickness direction, as well as the stress state in each ply. The initial ply failure predicted by applying the average stress criterion is followed by a simple progressive failure. Application of the model is demonstrated by considering single- and double-lap joints of metal plates bolted to composite laminates.

  3. The predictive value of plasma biomarkers in discharged heart failure patients: the role of plasma BNP.

    PubMed

    Beltrami, Matteo; Palazzuoli, Alberto; Ruocco, Gaetano; Aspromonte, Nadia

    2016-04-01

    To date, heart failure (HF) prognosis is still difficult: symptoms and signs are often non-specific, and poor sensitive indicators for HF severity. Brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) is now included in the current guidelines for HF diagnosis, management and risk assessment because of its high specificity and sensibility. BNP became a first-line exam in HF patients' evaluation at hospital admission together with clinical and chest X-ray. In discharged patients, the prognostic role of BNP is associated with decongestion and its significant reduction compared to admission level appears one of the best outcome predictors. In fact BNP measurement could identify patients with increased risk of adverse events and left ventricular remodeling. Although a single BNP value assay and the absolute value during hospitalization is related to the prognosis, especially at discharge. On the other hand, hormone levels could be influenced by several factors (i.e., renal dysfunction, anemia, age, liver insufficiency, Body Mass Index) independently from systemic and pulmonary congestion. Therefore, a new approach which considers a multimodality strategy including BNP assay among the traditional clinical examination and imaging studies should be routinely encouraged to better define cardiac dysfunction's etiology and severity, as well as to recognize patients at risk of adverse outcome. PMID:26474369

  4. Initial emergency department systolic blood pressure predicts left ventricular systolic function in acute decompensated heart failure.

    PubMed

    Styron, Joseph F; Jois-Bilowich, Preeti; Starling, Randall; Hobbs, Robert E; Kontos, Michael C; Pang, Peter S; Peacock, W Frank

    2009-01-01

    Ejection fraction (EF) is often unknown in patients who present with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). The objective of this study was to determine whether a patient's systolic blood pressure is associated with their left ventricular EF. This study was a retrospective chart review of all patients admitted to an emergency department (ED) observation unit from January 2002 to December 2004. A low EF was defined as <40%. Among 475 patients, the median age was 72 years, 53% were men, 40% were white, 59% were black, and 59% had a low EF. Patients with low EFs were more likely male ( P<.0001), with prior congestive heart disease ( P<.0001), longer QRS duration ( P<.0001), left bundle branch block ( P<.0001), and higher B-type natriuretic peptide ( P<.0001). The low EF group was less likely to have diabetes ( P<.0001). Adjusted odds ratios for an EF >or=40% were significant at all systolic blood pressure readings >120 mm Hg. Having an ED systolic BP >120 mm Hg is associated with significantly higher rates of preserved left ventricular systolic function in patients with ADHF. PMID:19187401

  5. VISA-II: a computer code for predicting the probability of reactor pressure vessel failure

    SciTech Connect

    Simonen, F.A.; Johnson, K.I.; Liebetrau, A.M.; Engel, D.W.; Simonen, E.P.

    1986-03-01

    The VISA-II (Vessel Integrity Simulation Analysis code was originally developed as part of the NRC staff evaluation of pressurized thermal shock. VISA-II uses Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the failure probability of a pressurized water reactor (PWR) pressure vessel subjected to a pressure and thermal transient specified by the user. Linear elastic fracture mechanics methods are used to model crack initiation and propagation. Parameters for initial crack size and location, copper content, initial reference temperature of the nil-ductility transition, fluence, crack-initiation fracture toughness, and arrest fracture toughness are treated as random variables. This report documents an upgraded version of the original VISA code as described in NUREG/CR-3384. Improvements include a treatment of cladding effects, a more general simulation of flaw size, shape and location, a simulation of inservice inspection, an updated simulation of the reference temperature of the nil-ductility transition, and treatment of vessels with multiple welds and initial flaws. The code has been extensively tested and verified and is written in FORTRAN for ease of installation on different computers. 38 refs., 25 figs.

  6. Predicting Honeybee Colony Failure: Using the BEEHAVE Model to Simulate Colony Responses to Pesticides

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    To simulate effects of pesticides on different honeybee (Apis mellifera L.) life stages, we used the BEEHAVE model to explore how increased mortalities of larvae, in-hive workers, and foragers, as well as reduced egg-laying rate, could impact colony dynamics over multiple years. Stresses were applied for 30 days, both as multiples of the modeled control mortality and as set percentage daily mortalities to assess the sensitivity of the modeled colony both to small fluctuations in mortality and periods of low to very high daily mortality. These stresses simulate stylized exposure of the different life stages to nectar and pollen contaminated with pesticide for 30 days. Increasing adult bee mortality had a much greater impact on colony survival than mortality of bee larvae or reduction in egg laying rate. Importantly, the seasonal timing of the imposed mortality affected the magnitude of the impact at colony level. In line with the LD50, we propose a new index of “lethal imposed stress”: the LIS50 which indicates the level of stress on individuals that results in 50% colony mortality. This (or any LISx) is a comparative index for exploring the effects of different stressors at colony level in model simulations. While colony failure is not an acceptable protection goal, this index could be used to inform the setting of future regulatory protection goals. PMID:26444386

  7. Spiritual Peace Predicts 5-Year Mortality in Congestive Heart Failure Patients

    PubMed Central

    Park, Crystal L.; George, Login; Aldwin, Carolyn M.; Choun, Soyoung; Suresh, D. P.; Bliss, Deborah

    2015-01-01

    Objective Spirituality is favorably related to depression, quality of life, hospitalizations, and other important outcomes in congestive heart failure (CHF) patients but has not been examined as a predictor of mortality risk in this population. Given the well-known difficulties in managing CHF, we hypothesized that spirituality would be associated with lower mortality risk, controlling for baseline demographics, functional status, health behaviors, and religiousness. Method Participants were 191 CHF patients (64% male; Mage = 68.6 years, SD = 10.1) who completed a baseline survey and were then followed for five years. Results Nearly one third of the sample (32%) died during the study period. Controlling for demographics and health status, smoking more than doubled the risk of mortality, while alcohol consumption was associated with slightly lower risk of mortality. Importantly, adherence to healthy lifestyle recommendations was associated with halved mortality risk. While both religion and spirituality were associated with better health behaviors at baseline in bivariate analyses, a proportional hazard model showed that only spirituality was significantly associated with reduced mortality risk (by 20%), controlling for demographics, health status, and health behaviors. Conclusions Experiencing spiritual peace, along with adherence to a healthy lifestyle, were better predictors of mortality risk in this sample of CHF patients than were physical health indicators such as functional status and comorbidity. Future research might profitably examine the efficacy of attending to spiritual issues along with standard lifestyle interventions. PMID:26414488

  8. Crack modelling: A novel technique for the prediction of fatigue failure in the presence of stress concentrations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taylor, D.

    1997-07-01

    Finite element (FE) analysis and other computational methods have developed rapidly in recent years, allowing accurate predictions of elastic stresses in components of complex geometry. However, the prediction of fatigue failure in these components is still a non-trivial problem; one reason for this is the difficulty of assessing stress concentrations and regions of high stress-gradient. This paper describes a new technique, called "crack modelling", which addresses the problem through a modification of linear-elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM). LEFM is designed to deal with cracks in nominally elastic stress fields, using elastic analysis to derive a characteristic stress intensity, K or, for cyclic loading, a range Δ K. This methodology is modified in two ways. Firstly it is shown that LEFM can be extended to predict the fatigue behaviour of bodies containing notches of standard geometry, instead of cracks. Secondly, FE analysis is used in conjunction with a modelling exercise in order to extend the method to include bodies of arbitrary shape subjected to any set of loads. The method was first tested using standard notch geometries (blunt and sharp notches in beams), where accurate predictions of fatigue limit could be achieved. It was then applied to an industrial problem, giving a prediction of high-cycle fatigue behaviour for an automotive crankshaft. The method requires only simple mechanical-property data (the material fatigue limit and stress-intensity threshold) and uses only linear-elastic FE modelling. It allows fracture mechanics theory to be used without the need to specifically model the presence of a crack and uses far-field elastic stresses to infer behaviour in the region of a stress concentration.

  9. Prediction of Failure Due to Thermal Aging, Corrosion and Environmental Fracture in Amorphous and Titanium Alloys

    SciTech Connect

    Farmer, J C

    2003-04-15

    DARPA is exploring a number of advanced materials for military applications, including amorphous metals and titanium-based alloys. Equipment made from these materials can undergo degradation due to thermal aging, uniform corrosion, pitting, crevice corrosion, denting, stress corrosion cracking, corrosion fatigue, hydrogen induced cracking and microbial influenced corrosion. Amorphous alloys have exceptional resistance to corrosion, due in part to the absence of grain boundaries, but can undergo crystallization and other phase instabilities during heating and welding. Titanium alloys are extremely corrosion resistant due to the formation of a tenacious passive film of titanium oxide, but is prone to hydrogen absorption in crevices, and hydrogen induced cracking after hydrogen absorption. Accurate predictions of equipment reliability, necessary for strategic planning, requires integrated models that account for all relevant modes of attack, and that can make probabilistic predictions. Once developed, model parameters must be determined experimentally, and the validity of models must be established through careful laboratory and field tests. Such validation testing requires state-of-the-art surface analytical techniques, as well as electrochemical and fracture mechanics tests. The interaction between those processes that perturb the local environment on a surface and those that alter metallurgical condition must be integrated in predictive models. The material and environment come together to drive various modes of corrosive attack (Figure 1). Models must be supported through comprehensive materials testing capabilities. Such capabilities are available at LLNL and include: the Long Term Corrosion Test Facility (LTCTF) where large numbers of standard samples can be exposed to realistic test media at several temperature levels; a reverse DC machine that can be used to monitor the propagation of stress corrosion cracking (SCC) in situ; and banks of potentiostats with

  10. In the elderly, failure to update internal models leads to over-optimistic predictions about upcoming actions.

    PubMed

    Lafargue, Gilles; Noël, Myriam; Luyat, Marion

    2013-01-01

    Before an action is performed, the brain simulates the body's dynamic behavior in relation to the environment, estimates the possible outcomes and assesses the feasibility of potential actions. Here, we tested a hypothesis whereby age-related changes in sensorimotor abilities result in failure to update internal models of action in the elderly. Young and older adults were required to judge in advance whether or not they could stand on an inclined plane (Experiment 1). Relative to young adults, elderly adults overestimated their postural capabilities: although the two groups made similar feasibility judgments, elderly participants showed significantly worse postural performance levels. This tendency to overestimate their own ability persisted when elderly adults had to not only estimate the feasibility of an action but also endanger themselves by walking towards an obstacle that was too high for them to clear (Experiment 2). An age-related failure to update internal models may prompt the elderly to make over-optimistic predictions about upcoming actions. In turn, this may favor risky motor decision-making and promote falls. PMID:23326312

  11. Prediction of the fiber-matrix interface failure due to longitudinal tensile loading using finite element methods

    SciTech Connect

    Mahfuz, H.; Ahsan Mian, A.K.M.; Vaidya, U.K.; Brown, T.; Jeelani, S.

    1995-10-01

    A 3D-unit cell for 0.90 laminated composites has been developed to predict the composite behavior under longitudinal tensile loading condition. 3D contact element has been used to model the fiber matrix interface. Two interface conditions, namely, infinitely strong and weakly bonded, are considered in the analysis. Both large displacement and plastic strain behavior for the matrix are considered to account for the geometric and material non-linearities. Investigations were carried out at three temperatures to compare the composite response obtained from mechanical tests at those temperatures. Stress-strain behavior and the local stress distributions at the fiber as well as at the matrix are presented, and their effects on the failure of the interface are discussed in the paper. The material under investigation was SiC{sub f}/Si{sub 3}N{sub 4}.

  12. Fully Coupled Micro/Macro Deformation, Damage, and Failure Prediction for SiC/Ti-15-3 Laminates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bednarcyk, Brett A.; Arnold, Steven M.; Lerch, Brad A.

    2001-01-01

    The deformation, failure, and low cycle fatigue life of SCS-6/Ti-15-3 composites are predicted using a coupled deformation and damage approach in the context of the analytical generalized method of cells (GMC) micromechanics model. The local effects of inelastic deformation, fiber breakage, fiber-matrix interfacial debonding, and fatigue damage are included as sub-models that operate on the micro scale for the individual composite phases. For the laminate analysis, lamination theory is employed as the global or structural scale model, while GMC is embedded to operate on the meso scale to simulate the behavior of the composite material within each laminate layer. While the analysis approach is quite complex and multifaceted, it is shown, through comparison with experimental data, to be quite accurate and realistic while remaining extremely efficient.

  13. Post-Exercise Heart Rate Recovery Independently Predicts Clinical Outcome in Patients with Acute Decompensated Heart Failure

    PubMed Central

    Youn, Jong-Chan; Lee, Hye Sun; Choi, Suk-Won; Han, Seong-Woo; Ryu, Kyu-Hyung; Shin, Eui-Cheol; Kang, Seok-Min

    2016-01-01

    Background Post-exercise heart rate recovery (HRR) is an index of parasympathetic function associated with clinical outcome in patients with chronic heart failure. However, its relationship with the pro-inflammatory response and prognostic value in consecutive patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) has not been investigated. Methods We measured HRR and pro-inflammatory markers in 107 prospectively and consecutively enrolled, recovered ADHF patients (71 male, 59 ± 15 years, mean ejection fraction 28.9 ± 14.2%) during the pre-discharge period. The primary endpoint included cardiovascular (CV) events defined as CV mortality, cardiac transplantation, or rehospitalization due to HF aggravation. Results The CV events occurred in 30 (28.0%) patients (5 cardiovascular deaths and 7 cardiac transplantations) during the follow-up period (median 214 days, 11–812 days). When the patients with ADHF were grouped by HRR according to the Contal and O’Quigley’s method, low HRR was shown to be associated with significantly higher levels of serum monokine-induced by gamma interferon (MIG) and poor clinical outcome. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that low HRR was an independent predictor of CV events in both enter method and stepwise method. The addition of HRR to a model significantly increased predictability for CV events across the entire follow-up period. Conclusion Impaired post-exercise HRR is associated with a pro-inflammatory response and independently predicts clinical outcome in patients with ADHF. These findings may explain the relationship between autonomic dysfunction and clinical outcome in terms of the inflammatory response in these patients. PMID:27135610

  14. The predictability of renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system factors for clinical outcome in patients with acute decompensated heart failure.

    PubMed

    Nakada, Yasuki; Takahama, Hiroyuki; Kanzaki, Hideaki; Sugano, Yasuo; Hasegawa, Takuya; Ohara, Takahiro; Amaki, Makoto; Funada, Akira; Yoshida, Akemi; Yasuda, Satoshi; Ogawa, Hisao; Anzai, Toshihisa

    2016-06-01

    Although counter-regulation between B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels and renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS) activation in heart failure (HF) has been suggested, whether the regulation is preserved in acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) patients remains unclear. This study aimed to determine: (1) the relationship between RAAS activation and clinical outcomes in ADHF patients, and (2) the relationships between plasma BNP levels and degrees of activation in RAAS factors. This study included ADHF patients (n = 103, NYHA3-4, plasma BNP > 200 pg/ml). We studied the predictability of RAAS factors for cardiovascular events and the relationships between plasma BNP levels and the degrees of activation in RAAS factors, which were evaluated by plasma renin activity (PRA) and aldosterone concentration (PAC). PRA was a strong predictor of cardiovascular (CV) events over 1 year, even after accounting for plasma BNP levels (hazard ratio (HR): 1.04, CI [1.02-1.06], p < 0.01) and medication such as RAAS blockers (HR: 1.03, CI [1.01-1.05], p < 0.01), whereas PAC was borderline-significant (univariate analysis, p = 0.06). Cut-off value of PRA (5.3 ng/ml/h) was determined by AUC curve. Of the enrolled patients, higher PRA was found in 40 % of them. Although no correlation between the plasma BNP levels and PRA was found (p = 0.36), after adjusting for hemodynamic parameters, eGFR and medication, a correlation was found between them (p = 0.01). Elevated RAAS factors were found in a substantial number of ADHF patients with high plasma BNP levels in the association with hemodynamic state, which predicts poor clinical outcomes. The measurements of RAAS factors help to stratify ADHF patients at risk for further CV events. PMID:25964073

  15. Cartilage Status at Time of Arthroscopy Predicts Failure in Patients With Hip Dysplasia.

    PubMed

    Dwyer, Maureen K; Lee, Jo-Ann; McCarthy, Joseph C

    2015-09-01

    The purpose of our study was to determine whether chondral damage at the time of arthroscopy predicted conversion to THA in patients with dysplasia. We identified 166 patients with dysplasia who underwent hip arthroscopy. Forty-seven went on to receive THA. The articular cartilage of three regions of the acetabulum and femoral head were assessed for signs of chondral damage (absent, mild, or severe]). A stepwise multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed mild damage on the posterior femoral head (P=0.001) and severe damage on the anterior acetabulum (P=0.007) made a significant contribution to the predictor. The presence of mild posterior femoral head chondral changes was indicative of more global cartilage damage in this series of patients. Our findings show that chondral damage on the posterior femoral head and anterior acetabulum is a strong predictor of ultimate conversion to THA in dysplastic patients. PMID:26059500

  16. A physically-based method for predicting peak discharge of floods caused by failure of natural and constructed earthen dams

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Walder, J.S.; O'Connor, J. E.; Costa, J.E.

    1997-01-01

    We analyse a simple, physically-based model of breach formation in natural and constructed earthen dams to elucidate the principal factors controlling the flood hydrograph at the breach. Formation of the breach, which is assumed trapezoidal in cross-section, is parameterized by the mean rate of downcutting, k, the value of which is constrained by observations. A dimensionless formulation of the model leads to the prediction that the breach hydrograph depends upon lake shape, the ratio r of breach width to depth, the side slope ?? of the breach, and the parameter ?? = (V.D3)(k/???gD), where V = lake volume, D = lake depth, and g is the acceleration due to gravity. Calculations show that peak discharge Qp depends weakly on lake shape r and ??, but strongly on ??, which is the product of a dimensionless lake volume and a dimensionless erosion rate. Qp(??) takes asymptotically distinct forms depending on whether < ??? 1 or < ??? 1. Theoretical predictions agree well with data from dam failures for which k could be reasonably estimated. The analysis provides a rapid and in many cases graphical way to estimate plausible values of Qp at the breach.We analyze a simple, physically-based model of breach formation in natural and constructed earthen dams to elucidate the principal factors controlling the flood hydrograph at the breach. Formation of the breach, which is assumed trapezoidal in cross-section, is parameterized by the mean rate of downcutting, k, the value of which is constrained by observations. A dimensionless formulation of the model leads to the prediction that the breach hydrograph depends upon lake shape, the ratio r of breach width to depth, the side slope ?? of the breach, and the parameter ?? = (V/D3)(k/???gD), where V = lake volume, D = lake depth, and g is the acceleration due to gravity. Calculations show that peak discharge Qp depends weakly on lake shape r and ??, but strongly on ??, which is the product of a dimensionless lake volume and a

  17. Prediction of diffusion assisted hydrogen embrittlement failure in high strength martensitic steels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Q.; Zikry, M. A.

    2015-12-01

    A stress assisted hydrogen diffusion transport model, a dislocation-density-based multiple-slip crystalline plasticity formulation, and an overlapping fracture method were used to investigate hydrogen diffusion and embrittlement in lath martensitic steels with distributions of M23C6 carbide precipitates. The formulation accounts for variant morphologies based on orientation relationships (ORs) that are uniquely inherent to lath martensitic microstructures. The interrelated effects of martensitic block and packet boundaries and carbide precipitates on hydrogen diffusion, hydrogen assisted crack nucleation and growth, are analyzed to characterize the competition between cleavage fracture and hydrogen diffusion assisted fracture along preferential microstructural fracture planes. Stresses along the three cleavage planes and the six hydrogen embrittlement fracture planes are monitored, such that crack nucleation and growth can nucleate along energetically favorable planes. High pressure gradients result in the accumulation of hydrogen, which embrittles martensite, and results in crack nucleation and growth along {110} planes. Cleavage fracture occurs along {100} planes when there is no significant hydrogen diffusion. The predictions indicate that hydrogen diffusion can suppress the emission and accumulation of dislocation density, and lead to fracture with low plastic strains.

  18. Why achievement motivation predicts success in business but failure in politics: the importance of personal control.

    PubMed

    Winter, David G

    2010-12-01

    Several decades of research have established that implicit achievement motivation (n Achievement) is associated with success in business, particularly in entrepreneurial or sales roles. However, several political psychology studies have shown that achievement motivation is not associated with success in politics; rather, implicit power motivation often predicts political success. Having versus lacking control may be a key difference between business and politics. Case studies suggest that achievement-motivated U.S. presidents and other world leaders often become frustrated and thereby fail because of lack of control, whereas power-motivated presidents develop ways to work with this inherent feature of politics. A reevaluation of previous research suggests that, in fact, relationships between achievement motivation and business success only occur when control is high. The theme of control is also prominent in the development of achievement motivation. Cross-national data are also consistent with this analysis: In democratic industrialized countries, national levels of achievement motivation are associated with strong executive control. In countries with low opportunity for education (thus fewer opportunities to develop a sense of personal control), achievement motivation is associated with internal violence. Many of these manifestations of frustrated achievement motivation in politics resemble authoritarianism. This conclusion is tested by data from a longitudinal study of 113 male college students, showing that high initial achievement motivation combined with frustrated desires for control is related to increases in authoritarianism (F-scale scores) during the college years. Implications for the psychology of leadership and practical politics are discussed. PMID:21039527

  19. The stress response predicts migration failure but not migration rate in a semelparous fish.

    PubMed

    Cook, Katrina V; Crossin, Glenn T; Patterson, David A; Hinch, Scott G; Gilmour, Kathleen M; Cooke, Steven J

    2014-06-01

    Recent findings from iteroparous species suggest that glucocorticoid secretion following acute stress can mediate behavior and survival strategies, ultimately influencing fitness. However, these correlates of the stress response may not exist in semelparous animals given the inability to maximize fitness by delaying reproduction. We measured baseline and stress-induced cortisol concentrations in semelparous sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) following exposure to an acute stressor at the mouth of the Fraser River in British Columbia. The homing fish were then radio-tagged and tracked throughout their in-river migration. Findings reveal that the stress response (i.e. change from baseline to stress-induced cortisol) was predictive of mortality; fish failing to leave the release site had a significantly greater stress response (mean±SE=1004.0±75.3ng/mL) compared to fish capable of successfully migrating beyond one of the most difficult areas of passage over 100 river kilometers upstream (mean±SE=780.7±66.7ng/mL). However, there were no associations between swimming behaviors, both immediately following release and to last point of detection, and the stress response. This study also introduced an unique method of tagging migrating salmon that allows for rapid capture and sampling and thus provides the first assessment of true baseline cortisol concentrations at river-entry for migrating Pacific salmon in the wild. Results show the stress response to be linked to survival in a semelparous species and therefore set the stage for further exploration into how the evolutionary theories underlying relationships between stress responsiveness and fitness may differ between semelparous and iteroparous species. PMID:24769043

  20. Comparative assessment of ProSeal™ laryngeal mask airway intervention versus standard technique of endotracheal extubation for attenuation of pressor response in controlled hypertensive patients

    PubMed Central

    Singh, Raj Pal; Gulabani, Michell; Kaur, Mohandeep; Sood, Rajesh

    2016-01-01

    Background and Aims: Swapping of the endotracheal tube with laryngeal mask airway (LMA) before emergence from anaesthesia is one of the methods employed for attenuation of pressor response at extubation. We decided to compare the placement of ProSeal™ LMA (PLMA) before endotracheal extubation versus conventional endotracheal extubation in controlled hypertensive patients scheduled for elective surgeries under general anaesthesia. Methods: Sixty consenting adult patients were randomly allocated to two groups of thirty each; Group E in whom extubation was performed using standard technique and Group P in whom PLMA was inserted before endotracheal extubation (Bailey manoeuvre). The primary outcome parameter was heart rate (HR). The secondary outcomes were systolic, diastolic and mean blood pressure (MBP), electrocardiogram, oxygen saturation and end-tidal carbon dioxide. Two-tailed paired Student's t-test was used for comparison between the two study groups. The value of P < 0.05 was considered as statistically significant. Results: The patient characteristics, demographic data and surgical procedures were comparable in the two groups. A statistically significant decrease was observed in HR in Group P as compared to Group E. Secondary outcomes such as systolic, diastolic and MBP depicted a statistically insignificant difference. Conclusion: Bailey manoeuvre was not effective method to be completely relied upon during extubation when compared to standard extubation. PMID:27512160

  1. A physically-based method for predicting peak discharge of floods caused by failure of natural and constructed earthen dams

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Walder, J.S.

    1997-01-01

    We analyse a simple, physically-based model of breach formation in natural and constructed earthen dams to elucidate the principal factors controlling the flood hydrograph at the breach. Formation of the breach, which is assumed trapezoidal in cross-section, is parameterized by the mean rate of downcutting, k, the value of which is constrained by observations. A dimensionless formulation of the model leads to the prediction that the breach hydrograph depends upon lake shape, the ratio r of breach width to depth, the side slope ?? of the breach, and the parameter ?? = (V/ D3)(k/???gD), where V = lake volume, D = lake depth, and g is the acceleration due to gravity. Calculations show that peak discharge Qp depends weakly on lake shape r and ??, but strongly on ??, which is the product of a dimensionless lake volume and a dimensionless erosion rate. Qp(??) takes asymptotically distinct forms depending on whether ?? > 1. Theoretical predictions agree well with data from dam failures for which k could be reasonably estimated. The analysis provides a rapid and in many cases graphical way to estimate plausible values of Qp at the breach.

  2. The predicted relative risk of premature ovarian failure for three radiotherapy modalities in a girl receiving craniospinal irradiation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pérez-Andújar, A.; Newhauser, W. D.; Taddei, P. J.; Mahajan, A.; Howell, R. M.

    2013-05-01

    In girls and young women, irradiation of the ovaries can reduce the number of viable ovarian primordial follicles, which may lead to premature ovarian failure (POF) and subsequently to sterility. One strategy to minimize this late effect is to reduce the radiation dose to the ovaries. A primary means of reducing dose is to choose a radiotherapy technique that avoids irradiating nearby normal tissue; however, the relative risk of POF (RRPOF) due to the various therapeutic options has not been assessed. This study compared the predicted RRPOF after craniospinal proton radiotherapy, conventional photon radiotherapy (CRT) and intensity-modulated photon radiotherapy (IMRT). We calculated the equivalent dose delivered to the ovaries of an 11-year-old girl from therapeutic and stray radiation. We then predicted the percentage of ovarian primordial follicles killed by radiation and used this as a measure of the RRPOF; we also calculated the ratio of the relative risk of POF (RRRPOF) among the three radiotherapies. Proton radiotherapy had a lower RRPOF than either of the other two types. We also tested the sensitivity of the RRRPOF between photon and proton therapies to the anatomic position of the ovaries, i.e., proximity to the treatment field (2 ≤ RRRPOF ≤ 10). We found that CRT and IMRT have higher risks of POF than passive-scattering proton radiotherapy (PRT) does, regardless of uncertainties in the ovarian location. Overall, PRT represents a lower RRPOF over the two other modalities.

  3. Metabolic Response on Post-therapy FDG-PET Predicts Patterns of Failure After Radiotherapy for Cervical Cancer

    SciTech Connect

    Schwarz, Julie K.; Siegel, Barry A.; Dehdashti, Farrokh; Grigsby, Perry W.

    2012-05-01

    Purpose: To determine the patterns of failure in patients with cervical cancer treated with definitive radiotherapy and evaluated for metabolic response with early posttherapy {sup 18}F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET). Methods and Materials: The records of 238 patients with cervical cancer were reviewed. All patients were treated with a combination of external radiotherapy and intracavitary brachytherapy. Two hundred and nineteen patients (92%) received concurrent chemotherapy. All patients underwent pretreatment FDG-PET, and posttherapy FDG-PET was performed within 8-16 weeks of the completion of radiotherapy. Posttherapy FDG-PET results were categorized as complete metabolic response (CMR), partial metabolic response (PMR), and progressive disease (PD). Failure patterns were categorized as none, isolated local failure (central pelvis {+-} pelvic lymph nodes), distant failure, or combined local plus distant failure. Results: Of the 91 patients (38%) who had a recurrence, 22 had isolated local failures, and 69 had distant failures (49 distant failures and 20 combined local plus distant failures). Of the 173 patients with a CMR, 40 (23%) experienced treatment failure. All 25 patients with PD experienced treatment failure, which was distant in 24 patients (96%). Among the 40 patients with PMR, no failure has been observed for 14 patients (35%). Of the 26 failures within the PMR group, 15 (58%) were limited to the pelvis. Differences in the patterns of failure between the three groups (CMR, PMR, PD) were statistically significant (chi-square test; p < 0.0001). Conclusions: The majority of failures after definitive radiotherapy for cervical cancer include distant failures, even in the setting of concurrent chemotherapy. PMR within the cervix or lymph nodes is more commonly associated with isolated local recurrence.

  4. PSA nadir predicts biochemical and distant failures after external beam radiotherapy for prostate cancer: A multi-institutional analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Ray, Michael E. . E-mail: mray@umich.edu; Thames, Howard D.; Levy, Larry B.; Horwitz, Eric M.; Kupelian, Patrick A.; Martinez, Alvaro A.; Michalski, Jeff M.; Pisansky, Thomas M.; Shipley, William U.; Zelefsky, Michael J.; Zietman, Anthony L.; Kuban, Deborah A.

    2006-03-15

    Purpose: To determine the significance of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) nadir (nPSA) and the time to nPSA (T{sub nPSA}) in predicting biochemical or clinical disease-free survival (PSA-DFS) and distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) in patients treated with definitive external beam radiotherapy (RT) for clinical Stage T1b-T2 prostate cancer. Methods and Materials: Nine participating institutions submitted data on 4839 patients treated between 1986 and 1995 for Stage T1b-T2cN0-NxM0 prostate cancer. All patients were treated definitively with RT alone to doses {>=}60 Gy, without neoadjuvant or planned adjuvant androgen suppression. A total of 4833 patients with a median follow-up of 6.3 years met the criteria for analysis. Two endpoints were considered: (1) PSA-DFS, defined as freedom from PSA failure (American Society for Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology definition), initiation of androgen suppression after completion of RT, or documented local or distant failure; and (2) DMFS, defined as freedom from clinically apparent distant failure. In patients with failure, nPSA was defined as the lowest PSA measurement before any failure. In patients without failure, nPSA was the lowest PSA measurement during the entire follow-up period. T{sub nPSA} was calculated from the completion of RT to the nPSA date. Results: A greater nPSA level and shorter T{sub nPSA} were associated with decreased PSA-DFS and DMFS in all patients and in all risk categories (low [Stage T1b, T1c, or T2a, Gleason score {<=}6, and PSA level {<=}10 ng/mL], intermediate [Stage T1b, T1c, or T2a, Gleason score {<=}6, and PSA level >10 but {<=}20 ng/mL, or Stage T2b or T2c, Gleason score {<=}6, and PSA level {<=}20 ng/mL, or Gleason score 7 and PSA level {<=}20 ng/mL], and high [Gleason score 8-10 or PSA level >20 ng/mL]), regardless of RT dose. The 8-year PSA-DFS and DMFS rate for patients with nPSA <0.5 ng/mL was 75% and 97%; nPSA {>=}0.5 but <1.0 ng/mL, 52% and 96%; nPSA {>=}1.0 but <2.0 ng/mL, 40

  5. Serum activin A and B levels predict outcome in patients with acute respiratory failure: a prospective cohort study

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Introduction 30 day mortality in patients with Acute Respiratory Failure (ARF) is approximately 30%, defined as patients requiring ventilator support for more than 6 hours. Novel biomarkers are needed to predict patient outcomes and to guide potential future therapies. The activins A and B, members of the Transforming Growth Factor β family of proteins, and their binding protein, follistatin, have recently been shown to be important regulators of inflammation and fibrosis but no substantial data are available concerning their roles in ARF. Our objectives were to evaluate whether the serum levels of activin A, B and follistatin are elevated in 518 patients with ARF from the FINNALI study compared the concentrations in 138 normal subjects that form a reference range. Methods Specific assays for activin A, B and follistatin were used and the results analyzed according to diagnostic groups as well as according to standard measures in intensive care. Multivariable logistic regression was used to create a model to predict death at 90 days and 12 months from the onset of the ARF. Results Serum activin A and B were significantly elevated in most patients and in most of the diagnostic groups. Patients who had activin A and/or B concentrations above the reference maximum were significantly more likely to die in the 12 months following admission [either activin A or B above reference maximum: Positive Likelihood Ratio [LR+] 1.65 [95% CI 1.28-2.12, P = 0.00013]; both activin A and B above reference maximum: LR + 2.78 [95% CI 1.96-3.95, P < 0.00001]. The predictive model at 12 months had an overall accuracy of 80.2% [95% CI 76.6-83.3%]. Conclusions The measurement of activin A and B levels in these patients with ARF would have assisted in predicting those at greatest risk of death. Given the existing data from animal studies linking high activin A levels to significant inflammatory challenges, the results from this study suggest that approaches to modulate

  6. Simple Measures of Function and Symptoms in Hospitalized Heart Failure Patients Predict Short-Term Cardiac Event-Free Survival

    PubMed Central

    Cataldo, Janine; Mackin, Lynda

    2014-01-01

    Background. Heart failure (HF) is a prevalent chronic condition where patients experience numerous uncomfortable symptoms, low functional status, and high mortality rates. Objective. To determine whether function and/or symptoms predict cardiac event-free survival in hospitalized HF patients within 90 days of hospital discharge. Methods. Inpatients (N = 32) had HF symptoms assessed with 4 yes/no questions. Function was determined with NYHA Classification, Katz Index of Activities of Daily Living (ADLs), and directly with the short physical performance battery (SPPB). Survival was analyzed with time to the first postdischarge cardiac event with events defined as cardiac rehospitalization, heart transplantation, or death. Results. Mean age was 58.2 ± 13.6 years. Patient reported ADL function was nearly independent (5.6 ± 1.1) while direct measure (SPPB) showed moderate functional limitation (6.4 ± 3.1). Within 90 days, 40.6% patients had a cardiac event. At discharge, each increase in NYHA Classification was associated with a 3.4-fold higher risk of cardiac events (95% CI 1.4–8.5). Patients reporting symptoms of dyspnea, fatigue, and orthopnea before discharge had a 4.0-fold, 9.7-fold, and 12.8-fold, respectively, greater risk of cardiac events (95% CI 1.2–13.2; 1.2–75.1; 1.7–99.7). Conclusions. Simple assessments of function and symptoms easily performed at discharge may predict short-term cardiac outcomes in hospitalized HF patients. PMID:24672717

  7. Usefulness of C-Reactive Protein Plasma Levels to Predict Exercise Intolerance in Patients With Chronic Systolic Heart Failure.

    PubMed

    Canada, Justin McNair; Fronk, Daniel Taylor; Cei, Laura Freeman; Carbone, Salvatore; Erdle, Claudia Oddi; Abouzaki, Nayef Antar; Melchior, Ryan David; Thomas, Christopher Scott; Christopher, Sanah; Turlington, Jeremy Shane; Trankle, Cory Ross; Thurber, Clinton Joseph; Evans, Ronald Kenneth; Dixon, Dave L; Van Tassell, Benjamin Wallace; Arena, Ross; Abbate, Antonio

    2016-01-01

    Patients with heart failure (HF) have evidence of chronic systemic inflammation. Whether inflammation contributes to the exercise intolerance in patients with HF is, however, not well established. We hypothesized that the levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), an established inflammatory biomarker, predict impaired cardiopulmonary exercise performance, in patients with chronic systolic HF. We measured CRP using high-sensitivity particle-enhanced immunonephelometry in 16 patients with ischemic heart disease (previous myocardial infarction) and chronic systolic HF, defined as a left ventricular ejection fraction ≤ 50% and New York Heart Association class II-III symptoms. All subjects with CRP >2 mg/L, reflecting systemic inflammation, underwent cardiopulmonary exercise testing using a symptom-limited ramp protocol. CRP levels predicted shorter exercise times (R = -0.65, p = 0.006), lower oxygen consumption (VO2) at the anaerobic threshold (R = -0.66, p = 0.005), and lower peak VO2 (R = -0.70, p = 0.002), reflecting worse cardiovascular performance. CRP levels also significantly correlated with an elevated ventilation/carbon dioxide production slope (R = +0.64, p = 0.008), a reduced oxygen uptake efficiency slope (R = -0.55, p = 0.026), and reduced end-tidal CO2 level at rest and with exercise (R = -0.759, p = 0.001 and R = -0.739, p = 0.001, respectively), reflecting impaired gas exchange. In conclusion, the intensity of systemic inflammation, measured as CRP plasma levels, is associated with cardiopulmonary exercise performance, in patients with ischemic heart disease and chronic systolic HF. These data provide the rationale for targeted anti-inflammatory treatments in HF. PMID:26546248

  8. Symptomatology and Coping Resources Predict Self-Care Behaviors in Middle to Older Age Patients with Heart Failure

    PubMed Central

    Graven, Lucinda J.; Grant, Joan S.; Gordon, Glenna

    2015-01-01

    Background. Symptoms of heart failure (HF) and coping resources, such as social support and social problem-solving, may influence self-care behaviors. Research regarding the influence of HF symptomatology characteristics and components of social support and social problem-solving on self-care is limited. Objective. To identify predictors of HF self-care behaviors using characteristics of HF symptomatology, components of social support and social problem-solving, and demographic and clinical factors. Methods. Using a cross-sectional, correlational predictive design, a convenience sample (N = 201) of outpatients with HF answered self-report surveys. Multiple linear regression with stepwise variable selection was conducted. Results. Six predictors of HF self-care were identified: race, symptom frequency, symptom-related interference with enjoyment of life, New York Heart Association Class HF, rational problem-solving style, and social network (β = 34.265, R2 = 0.19, P = 0.001). Conclusions. Assessing the influence of race on self-care behaviors in middle to older age patients with HF is important. Clinical assessment that focuses on symptom frequency, symptom-related interference with enjoyment of life, and HF Class might also impact self-care behaviors in this population. Rational problem-solving skills used and evaluation of the size of and satisfaction with one's social network may be appropriate when assessing self-care. PMID:26618000

  9. Sequential organ failure assessment scoring and prediction of patient's outcome in Intensive Care Unit of a tertiary care hospital

    PubMed Central

    Jain, Aditi; Palta, Sanjeev; Saroa, Richa; Palta, Anshu; Sama, Sonu; Gombar, Satinder

    2016-01-01

    Background and Aims: The objective was to determine the accuracy of sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score in predicting outcome of patients in Intensive Care Unit (ICU). Material and Methods: Forty-four consecutive patients between 15 and 80 years admitted to ICU over 8 weeks period were studied prospectively. Three patients were excluded. SOFA score was determined 24 h postadmission to ICU and subsequently every 48 h for the first 10 days. Patients were followed till discharge/death/transfer from the ICU. Initial SOFA score, highest and mean SOFA scores were calculated and correlated with mortality and duration of stay in ICU. Results: The mortality rate was 39% and the mean duration of stay in the ICU was 9 days. The maximum score in survivors (3.92 ± 2.17) was significantly lower than nonsurvivors (8.9 ± 3.45). The initial SOFA score had a strong statistical correlation with mortality. Cardiovascular score on day 1 and 3, respiratory score on day 7, and coagulation profile on day 3 correlated significantly with the outcome. Duration of the stay did not correlate with the survival (P = 0.461). Conclusion: SOFA score is a simple, but effective prognostic indicator and evaluator for patient progress in ICU. Day 1 SOFA can triage the patients into risk categories. For further management, mean and maximum score help determine the severity of illness and can act as a guide for the intensity of therapy required for each patient.

  10. Role of galectin-3 and plasma B type-natriuretic peptide in predicting prognosis in discharged chronic heart failure patients.

    PubMed

    Feola, Mauro; Testa, Marzia; Leto, Laura; Cardone, Marco; Sola, Mario; Rosso, Gian Luca

    2016-06-01

    Galectin-3 demonstrated to be a robust independent marker of cardiovascular mid-term (18-month) outcome in heart failure (HF) patients. The objective of this study was to analyze the value of a predischarged determination of plasma galectin-3 alone and with plasma brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) in predicting mid-term outcome in frequent-flyers (FF) HF (≥2 hospitalization for HF/year)/dead patients discharged after an acute decompensated HF (ADHF) episode.All FF chronic HF subjects discharged alive after an ADHF were enrolled. All patients underwent a determination of BNP and galectin-3, a 6-minute walk test, and an echocardiogram within 48 hours upon hospital discharge. Death by any cause, cardiac transplantation, and worsening HF requiring readmission to hospital were considered cardiovascular events.Eighty-three patients (67 males, age 73.2 ± 8.6 years old) were analyzed (mean follow-up 11.6 ± 5.2 months; range 4-22 months). During the follow-up 38 events (45.7%) were scheduled: (13 cardiac deaths, 35 rehospitalizations for ADHF). According to medical history, in 33 patients (39.8%) a definition of FF HF patients was performed (range 2-4 hospitalization/year). HF patients who suffered an event (FF or death) demonstrated more impaired ventricular function (P = 0.037), higher plasma BNP (P = 0.005), and Gal-3 at predischarge evaluation (P = 0.027). Choosing adequate cut-off points (BNP ≥ 500 pg/mL and Gal-3 ≥ 17.6 ng/mL), the Kaplan-Meier curves depicted the powerful stratification using BNP + Gal-3 in predicting clinical course at mid-term follow-up (log rank 5.65; P = 0.017).Adding Gal-3 to BNP, a single predischarge strategy testing seemed to obtain a satisfactorily predictive value in alive HF patients discharged after an ADHF episode. PMID:27368017

  11. 1,25-Dihydroxyvitamin D to PTH(1–84) Ratios Strongly Predict Cardiovascular Death in Heart Failure

    PubMed Central

    Gruson, Damien; Ferracin, Benjamin; Ahn, Sylvie A.; Zierold, Claudia; Blocki, Frank; Hawkins, Douglas M.; Bonelli, Fabrizio; Rousseau, Michel F.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives Vitamin D deficiency and hyperparathyroidism are common in patients with heart failure (HF). There is a growing body of evidence supporting the role of vitamin D and parathyroid hormone (PTH) in cardiac remodeling and worsening of HF. Lack of reliable automated testing of 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D (1,25(OH)2D), the biologically active metabolite of vitamin D, has limited its contribution to the prognostic assessment of HF. Here, the association of 1,25(OH)2D and PTH(1–84) levels was evaluated for prediction of cardiovascular death in chronic HF patients. Methods We conducted a single center prospective cohort including 170 chronic HF patients (females n = 36; males n = 134; NYHA II-IV; mean age: 67 years; etiology: ischemic n = 119, dilated cardiomyopathy n = 51; mean LVEF: 23%). The primary outcome was cardiovascular death. Results Serum levels of 1,25(OH)2D decreased markedly with increased HF severity. Medians were 33.3 pg/mL for NYHA-II patients, 23.4 pg/mL for NYHA-III, and 14.0 pg/mL for NYHA-IV patients (p<0.001). Most patients had levels of 25(OH)D below 30ng/mL, and stratification by NYHA functional class did not show significant differences (p = 0.249). The 1,25(OH)2D to PTH(1–84) ratio and the (1,25(OH)2D)2 to PTH(1–84) ratio were found to be the most significantly related to HF severity. After a median follow-up of 4.1 years, 106 out of 170 patients reached the primary endpoint. Cox proportional hazard modeling revealed 1,25(OH)2D and the 1,25(OH)2D to PTH(1–84) ratios to be strongly predictive of outcomes. Conclusions 1,25(OH)2D and its ratios to PTH(1–84) strongly and independently predict cardiovascular mortality in chronic HF. PMID:26308451

  12. Role of galectin-3 and plasma B type-natriuretic peptide in predicting prognosis in discharged chronic heart failure patients

    PubMed Central

    Feola, Mauro; Testa, Marzia; Leto, Laura; Cardone, Marco; Sola, Mario; Rosso, Gian Luca

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Galectin-3 demonstrated to be a robust independent marker of cardiovascular mid-term (18-month) outcome in heart failure (HF) patients. The objective of this study was to analyze the value of a predischarged determination of plasma galectin-3 alone and with plasma brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) in predicting mid-term outcome in frequent-flyers (FF) HF (≥2 hospitalization for HF/year)/dead patients discharged after an acute decompensated HF (ADHF) episode. All FF chronic HF subjects discharged alive after an ADHF were enrolled. All patients underwent a determination of BNP and galectin-3, a 6-minute walk test, and an echocardiogram within 48 hours upon hospital discharge. Death by any cause, cardiac transplantation, and worsening HF requiring readmission to hospital were considered cardiovascular events. Eighty-three patients (67 males, age 73.2 ± 8.6 years old) were analyzed (mean follow-up 11.6 ± 5.2 months; range 4–22 months). During the follow-up 38 events (45.7%) were scheduled: (13 cardiac deaths, 35 rehospitalizations for ADHF). According to medical history, in 33 patients (39.8%) a definition of FF HF patients was performed (range 2–4 hospitalization/year). HF patients who suffered an event (FF or death) demonstrated more impaired ventricular function (P = 0.037), higher plasma BNP (P = 0.005), and Gal-3 at predischarge evaluation (P = 0.027). Choosing adequate cut-off points (BNP ≥ 500 pg/mL and Gal-3 ≥ 17.6 ng/mL), the Kaplan–Meier curves depicted the powerful stratification using BNP + Gal-3 in predicting clinical course at mid-term follow-up (log rank 5.65; P = 0.017). Adding Gal-3 to BNP, a single predischarge strategy testing seemed to obtain a satisfactorily predictive value in alive HF patients discharged after an ADHF episode. PMID:27368017

  13. Prediction of scuffing failure based on competitive kinetics of oxide formation and removal: Application to lubricated sliding of AISI 52100 steel on steel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cutiongco, Eric C.; Chung, Yip-Wah

    1994-07-01

    A method for predicting scuffing failure based on the competitive kinetics of oxide formation and removal has been developed and applied to the sliding of AISI 52100 steel on steel with poly-alpha-olefin as the lubricant. Oxide formation rates were determining using static oxidation tests on coupons of 52100 steel covered with poly-alpha-olefin at temperatures of 140 C to 250 C. Oxide removal rates were determined at different combinations of initial average nominal contact pressures (950 MPa to 1578 MPa) and sliding velocities (0.4 m/s to 1.8 m/s) using a ball-on-disk vacuum tribotester. The nominal asperity flash temperatures generated during the wear tests were calculated and the temperatures corresponding to the intersection of the the Arrhenius plots of oxide formation and removal rates were determined and taken as the critical failure temperatures. The pressure-velocity failure transition diagram was constructed by plotting the critical failure temperatures along isotherms of average nominal asperity flash temperatures calculated at different combinations of contact stress and sliding speed. The predicted failure transition curve agreed well with experimental scuffing data.

  14. Individual Differences in Self-Regulatory Failure and Menstrual Dysfunction Predict Upper Respiratory Infection Symptoms and Antibody Response to Flu Immunization

    PubMed Central

    Strauman, Timothy J.; Coe, Christopher L.; McCrudden, Megan C.; Vieth, Angela Z.; Kwapil, Lori

    2008-01-01

    Prior research indicates that cognitive priming manipulations that activate personal goals acutely increase or decrease natural killer cell cytotoxicity depending on whether individuals see themselves as making or failing to make progress toward their goals. Those findings in a laboratory setting revealed a psychobiological pathway whereby experiences of failure can influence health, but did not assess the impact of chronic perceived success/failure in goal pursuit on actual health outcomes. Three new studies investigated whether individual differences in perceived failure to attain personal goals influenced the self-reported symptoms of upper respiratory infections (URIs) as well as antibody response to flu immunization. Based on pilot data in young women, it also was hypothesized that the occurrence of menstrual dysfunction might interact with goal pursuit failure to more specifically predict cold and flu symptoms and optimal responses to vaccination. Perceived failure to attain goals did predict the reporting of URI symptoms as well as antibody levels post-immunization, both alone and in combination with menstrual dysfunction. PMID:18294813

  15. Effects of topical lidocaine on successful extubation time among patients undergoing elective carotid endarterectomies.

    PubMed

    Watkins, Jeremy; Lee, Doohee; White, William A; Mundy, Susan

    2012-04-01

    Little research has been done on the effects that topical intratracheal anesthesia have on the length of time required to successfully extubate patients after surgical interventions. This retrospective case-control study, using a convenience sample (n = 100 patients), explored the effects of using topical lidocaine laryngotracheal anesthesia injected into the adult trachea before insertion of the endotracheal tube on patients undergoing surgical treatment for blockage of the carotid artery. Both descriptive and inferential analyses were performed to evaluate differences among all variables. Multiple linear regression was also performed while adjusting for the confounding factors (age, gender, and smoking status). Results revealed that the use of lidocaine laryngotracheal anesthesia during induction of anesthesia prolonged the mean times for postoperative removal of the endotracheal tube by nearly 2 minutes. Extended time for removal of endotracheal tubes may lead to increased costs to the healthcare institution and to the patient, which in turn may lead to dissatisfaction within healthcare teams and possibly to patient discontent with care provided. PMID:22586878

  16. Extubation versus tracheostomy in withdrawal of treatment-ethical, clinical, and legal perspectives.

    PubMed

    Chotirmall, Sanjay Haresh; Flynn, Maura G; Donegan, Ciaran F; Smith, David; O'Neill, Shane J; McElvaney, Noel Gerard

    2010-06-01

    The provision of life-sustaining ventilation, such as tracheostomy to critically ill patients, is commonly performed. However, the utilization of tracheostomy or extubation after a withdrawal of treatment decision is debated. There is a dearth of practical information available to aid clinical decision making because withdrawal of treatment is a challenging scenario for all concerned. This is further complicated by medicolegal and ethical considerations. Care of the "hopelessly ill" patient should be based on daily evaluation and comfort making it impossible to fit into general algorithms. Although respect for autonomy is important in healthcare, it is limited for patients in an unconscious state. Beneficence remains the basis for withdrawing treatment in futile cases and underpins the "doctrine of double effect." This article presents a relevant clinical case of hypoxic brain injury where a question of withdrawal of treatment arose and examines the ethical, clinical, and medicolegal considerations inherent in such cases, including beneficence, nonmaleficence, and the "sanctity of life doctrine." In addition, the considerations of prognosis for recovery, patient autonomy, patient quality of life, and patient family involvement, which are central to decision making, are addressed. The varying legal frameworks that exist internationally regarding treatment withdrawal are also described. Good ethics needs sound facts, and despite the lack of legal foundation in several countries, withdrawal of treatment remains practiced, and the principles described within this article aim to aid clinician decision making during such complex and multifaceted end-of-life decisions. PMID:19850443

  17. Using a multi-parameter monitoring methodology to predict failures in the cryogenic plant of the cold neutron source at Australia's OPAL reactor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, Weijian; Thiering, Russell

    2012-06-01

    A 5 kW Brayton-cycle helium refrigeration plant provides cooling at 20 K to the Cold Neutron Source (CNS) at Australia's OPAL Reactor. During several years of operation to the present day, the plant has experienced an unusually high number of turbine and compressor failures. The root cause for some of the failures is known, but for others remains to be determined. All of the failures were catastrophic without any prior warning from standard industrial monitoring based on singular process variables such as temperature, pressure and vibration. The failures and the down time they caused have been very costly. As the operator of the plant, we have developed a multi-parameter monitoring (MPM) methodology to track the performance of the plant. The methodology utilises indicators obtained from a combination of process variables based on their thermodynamic relations. By studying the historical trends of appropriate indicators, especially during the past failures, we have found some indicators that would be able to improve our predictive capability so that we can avoid similar failures in the future.

  18. Spectral transfer function analysis of respiratory hemodynamic fluctuations predicts end-diastolic stiffness in preserved ejection fraction heart failure.

    PubMed

    Abdellatif, Mahmoud; Leite, Sara; Alaa, Mohamed; Oliveira-Pinto, José; Tavares-Silva, Marta; Fontoura, Dulce; Falcão-Pires, Inês; Leite-Moreira, Adelino F; Lourenço, André P

    2016-01-01

    Preserved ejection fraction heart failure (HFpEF) diagnosis remains controversial, and invasive left ventricular (LV) hemodynamic evaluation and/or exercise testing is advocated by many. The stiffer HFpEF myocardium may show impaired stroke volume (SV) variation induced by fluctuating LV filling pressure during ventilation. Our aim was to investigate spectral transfer function (STF) gain from end-diastolic pressure (EDP) to indexed SV (SVi) in experimental HFpEF. Eighteen-week-old Wistar-Kyoto (WKY) and ZSF1 lean (ZSF1 Ln) and obese rats (ZSF1 Ob) randomly underwent LV open-chest (OC, n = 8 each group) or closed-chest hemodynamic evaluation (CC, n = 6 each group) under halogenate anesthesia and positive-pressure ventilation at constant inspiratory pressure. Beat-to-beat fluctuations in hemodynamic parameters during ventilation were assessed by STF. End-diastolic stiffness (βi) and end-systolic elastance (Eesi) for indexed volumes were obtained by inferior vena cava occlusion in OC (multibeat) or single-beat method estimates in CC. ZSF1 Ob showed higher EDP spectrum (P < 0.001), higher STF gain between end-diastolic volume and EDP, and impaired STF gain between EDP and SVi compared with both hypertensive ZSF1 Ln and normotensive WKY controls (P < 0.001). Likewise βi was only higher in ZSF1 Ob while Eesi was raised in both ZSF1 groups. On multivariate analysis βi and not Eesi correlated with impaired STF gain from EDP to SVi (P < 0.001), and receiver-operating characteristics analysis showed an area under curve of 0.89 for higher βi prediction (P < 0.001). Results support further clinical testing of STF analysis from right heart catheterization-derived EDP surrogates to noninvasively determined SV as screening/diagnostic tool to assess myocardial stiffness in HFpEF. PMID:26475584

  19. Derivation of baseline lung impedance in chronic heart failure patients: use for monitoring pulmonary congestion and predicting admissions for decompensation.

    PubMed

    Shochat, Michael; Shotan, Avraham; Blondheim, David S; Kazatsker, Mark; Dahan, Iris; Asif, Aya; Shochat, Ilia; Frimerman, Aaron; Rozenman, Yoseph; Meisel, Simcha R

    2015-06-01

    The instantaneous lung impedance (ILI) is one of the methods to assess pulmonary congestion or edema (PCE) in chronic heart failure (CHF) patients. Due to usually existing PCE in CHF patients when evaluated, baseline lung impedance (BLI) is unknown. Therefore, the relation of ILI to BLI is unknown. Our aim was to evaluate methods to calculate and appraise BLI or its derivative as reflecting the clinical status of CHF patients. ILI and New York Heart Association (NYHA) class were assessed in 222 patients (67 ± 11 years, LVEF <35 %) during 32 months of frequent outpatient clinic visits. ILI, measured in 120 asymptomatic patients at NYHA class I, with no congestion on the chest X-ray and a low-normal 6-min walk, was defined as BLI. Using measured BLI and ILI values in these patients, formulas for BLI calculation were derived based on logistic regression analysis or on the disparity between BLI and ILI values at different NYHA stages. Both models were equally reliable with <3 % difference between measured and calculated BLI (p = NS). ΔLIR = (ILI/BLI - 1) × 100 % reflected the degree of PCE, or deviation from baseline, correlated with NYHA class (r = -0.9, p < 0.001) and could serve for monitoring. Of study patients, 123 were re-hospitalized for PCE during follow up. Their ΔLIR decreased gradually from -21.7 ± 8.2 % 4 weeks pre-admission to -37.8 ± 9.3 % on admission (p < 0.001). Patients improved during hospital stay (NYHA 3.7 ± 0.5 to 2.9 ± 0.8, p < 0.0001) with ΔLIR increasing to -29.1 ± 12.0 % (p < 0.001). ΔLIR based on calculated BLI correlated with the clinical status of CHF patients and allowed the prediction of hospitalizations for PCE. PMID:25193676

  20. In Patients Experiencing Biochemical Failure After Radiotherapy, Pretreatment Risk Group and PSA Velocity Predict Differences in Overall Survival and Biochemical Failure-Free Interval

    SciTech Connect

    Soto, Daniel E. Andridge, Rebecca R.; Pan, Charlie C.; Williams, Scott G.; Taylor, Jeremy M.G.; Sandler, Howard M.

    2008-08-01

    Purpose: To characterize the demographics and survival outcomes of localized prostate cancer patients who developed biochemical failure (BF) according to a prostate-specific antigen (PSA) nadir plus 2 ng/mL. Methods and Materials: We identified 375 prostate cancer patients who had undergone external beam radiotherapy without androgen deprivation therapy but with sufficient PSA data to study PSA kinetics. Of these patients, we identified 82 with BF. The pretreatment PSA velocity was calculated for each patient. Results: For the BF cohort, 26% were low-risk and 74% were intermediate- or high-risk patients. Of the 82 BF patients, 16 (20%) were noted to have both low-risk disease and a pretreatment low PSA velocity of {<=}2 ng/mL/y (termed 'low-risk low-velocity' [LRLV]). The remaining BF patients had either intermediate- or high-risk features or a high PSA velocity >2 ng/mL/y (termed 'higher risk' [HR]). For patients who had BF, the LRLV group had a delayed median time to BF of 55 months compared with 33 months for the HR patients (p = 0.04). With a median clinical follow-up of 112 months, the 5-year overall survival rate was 100% for the LRLV BF patients vs. 84% for the HR patients (p = 0.02). Conclusions: We observed that LRLV BF patients represent a sizeable proportion of all patients with treatment failure. However, when comparing LRLV BF with HR BF patients, the former had significantly better overall survival and a longer interval to BF. This suggests that not all BF events are equivalent and emphasizes the challenges associated with using BF alone as a surrogate for a survival endpoint.

  1. Heart Failure

    MedlinePlus

    ... version of this page please turn Javascript on. Heart Failure What is Heart Failure? In heart failure, the heart cannot pump enough ... failure often experience tiredness and shortness of breath. Heart Failure is Serious Heart failure is a serious and ...

  2. Numerical Predictions of Damage and Failure in Carbon Fiber Reinforced Laminates Using a Thermodynamically-Based Work Potential Theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pineda, Evan Jorge; Waas, Anthony M.

    2013-01-01

    A thermodynamically-based work potential theory for modeling progressive damage and failure in fiber-reinforced laminates is presented. The current, multiple-internal state variable (ISV) formulation, referred to as enhanced Schapery theory (EST), utilizes separate ISVs for modeling the effects of damage and failure. Consistent characteristic lengths are introduced into the formulation to govern the evolution of the failure ISVs. Using the stationarity of the total work potential with respect to each ISV, a set of thermodynamically consistent evolution equations for the ISVs are derived. The theory is implemented into a commercial finite element code. The model is verified against experimental results from two laminated, T800/3900-2 panels containing a central notch and different fiber-orientation stacking sequences. Global load versus displacement, global load versus local strain gage data, and macroscopic failure paths obtained from the models are compared against the experimental results.

  3. Pre-existing Arterial Micro-Calcification Predicts Primary Unassisted Arteriovenous Fistula Failure in Incident Hemodialysis Patients.

    PubMed

    Choi, Su Jin; Yoon, Hye Eun; Kim, Young Soo; Yoon, Sun Ae; Yang, Chul Woo; Kim, Yong-Soo; Park, Sun Cheol; Kim, Young Ok

    2015-01-01

    Vascular access micro-calcification is a risk factor for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in hemodialysis (HD) patients but its influence on vascular access patency is still undetermined. Our study aimed to determine the impact of arterial micro-calcification (AMiC) on the patency of vascular access in HD patients. One-hundred fourteen HD patients receiving arteriovenous fistula (AVF) operation were included in this study. During the operation, we obtained partial arterial specimen and performed pathological examination by von Kossa stain to identify AMiC. We compared primary unassisted AVF failure within 1 year between positive and negative AMiC groups, and performed Cox regression analysis for evaluating risk factor of AVF failure. The incidence of AMiC was 37.7% and AVF failure occurred in 45 patients (39.5%). The AVF failure rate within 1 year was greater in the positive AMiC group than those in the negative AMiC group (53.5% vs. 31.0%, p = 0.02). Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that the positive AMiC group had a lower AVF patency rate than the negative AMiC group (p = 0.02). The presence of AMiC was an independent risk factor for AVF failure. In conclusion, preexisting AMiC of the vascular access is associated with primary unassisted AVF failure in incident HD patients. PMID:25787294

  4. Effect of peri-operative intravenous infusion of lignocaine on haemodynamic responses to intubation, extubation and post-operative analgesia

    PubMed Central

    Jain, Shruti; Khan, Rashid M

    2015-01-01

    Background and Aims: Lignocaine in intravenous (IV) bolus dose has been used for minimising haemodynamic changes associated with intubation and extubation. Furthermore, IV infusion has been used for post-operative analgesia. We investigated whether IV peri-operative lignocaine (bolus and infusion) would be able to produce both the effects simultaneously in elective laparoscopic cholecystectomies. Methods: In this randomised prospective study, 60 patients undergoing elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy were randomly divided into two groups of 30 each. In Group A, patients received 6 ml normal saline as bolus over 10 min followed by 6 ml/h infusion whereas in Group B, patients received preservative free 2% lignocaine 1.5 mg/kg IV bolus (made to a volume of 6 ml with normal saline) administered over a period of 10 min and thereafter an infusion at a rate of 1.5 mg/kg/h (pre-diluted in normal saline made to a volume of 6 ml/h. P < 0.05 was considered as significant. Results: The rise in pulse rate (PR) and mean arterial pressure (MAP) were less in Group B as compared to the Group A (P < 0.05) during intubation as well as during extubation. Furthermore, the Group B had significant longer mean pain-free post-operative period of 5½ h as compared to 54.43 min in the Group A (P < 0.05). Conclusion: Administration of lignocaine infusion attenuates the rise in PR as well as MAP during the peri-intubation and peri-extubation period. Furthermore, infusion of lignocaine significantly increases the mean pain-free period post-operatively. PMID:26195829

  5. Factors predictive of treatment failure in staphylococcal prosthetic vascular graft infections: a prospective observational cohort study: impact of rifampin

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background There exists considerable debate concerning management of prosthetic vascular graft infection (PVGI), especially in terms of antimicrobial treatment. This report studies factors associated with treatment failure in a cohort of patients with staphylococcal PVGI, along with the impact of rifampin (RIF). Methods All data on patients with PVGI between 2006 and 2010 were reviewed. Cure was defined as the absence of evidence of infection during the entire post-treatment follow-up for a minimum of one year. Failure was defined as any other outcome. Results 84 patients (72 M/12 F, median age 64.5 ± 11 y) with diabetes mellitus (n = 25), obesity (n = 48), coronary artery disease (n = 48), renal failure (n = 24) or COPD (n = 22) were treated for PVGI (median follow-up was 470 ± 469 d). PVGI was primarily intracavitary (n = 47). Staphylococcus aureus (n = 65; including 17 methicillin-resistant S. aureus) and coagulase-negative Staphylocococcus (n = 22) were identified. Surgical treatment was performed in 71 patients. In univariate analysis, significant risk factors associated with failure were renal failure (p = 0.04), aortic aneurysm (p = 0.03), fever (p = 0.009), aneurysm disruption (p = 0.02), septic shock in the peri-operative period (p = 0.005) and antibiotic treatment containing RIF (p = 0.03). In multivariate analysis, 2 variables were independently associated with failure:septic shock [OR 4.98: CI 95% 1.45-16.99; p=0.01] and antibiotic containing rifampin [OR: 0.32: CI95% 0.10-0.96; p=0.04]. Conclusion Results of the present study suggest that fever, septic shock and non-use of antibiotic treatment containing RIF are associated with poor outcome. PMID:24775563

  6. Extubation process in bed-ridden elderly intensive care patients receiving inspiratory muscle training: a randomized clinical trial

    PubMed Central

    Cader, Samária Ali; de Souza Vale, Rodrigo Gomes; Zamora, Victor Emmanuel; Costa, Claudia Henrique; Dantas, Estélio Henrique Martin

    2012-01-01

    Background The purpose of this study was to evaluate the extubation process in bed-ridden elderly intensive care patients receiving inspiratory muscle training (IMT) and identify predictors of successful weaning. Methods Twenty-eight elderly intubated patients in an intensive care unit were randomly assigned to an experimental group (n = 14) that received conventional physiotherapy plus IMT with a Threshold IMT® device or to a control group (n = 14) that received only conventional physiotherapy. The experimental protocol for muscle training consisted of an initial load of 30% maximum inspiratory pressure, which was increased by 10% daily. The training was administered for 5 minutes, twice daily, 7 days a week, with supplemental oxygen from the beginning of weaning until extubation. Successful extubation was defined by the ventilation time measurement with noninvasive positive pressure. A vacuum manometer was used for measurement of maximum inspiratory pressure, and the patients’ Tobin index values were measured using a ventilometer. Results The maximum inspiratory pressure increased significantly (by 7 cm H2O, 95% confidence interval [CI] 4–10), and the Tobin index decreased significantly (by 16 breaths/ min/L, 95% CI −26 to 6) in the experimental group compared with the control group. The Chi-squared distribution did not indicate a significant difference in weaning success between the groups (χ2 = 1.47; P = 0.20). However, a comparison of noninvasive positive pressure time dependence indicated a significantly lower value for the experimental group (P = 0.0001; 95% CI 13.08–18.06). The receiver-operating characteristic curve showed an area beneath the curve of 0.877 ± 0.06 for the Tobin index and 0.845 ± 0.07 for maximum inspiratory pressure. Conclusion The IMT intervention significantly increased maximum inspiratory pressure and significantly reduced the Tobin index; both measures are considered to be good extubation indices. IMT was associated with a

  7. Compassionate extubation for a peaceful death in the setting of a community hospital: a case-series study

    PubMed Central

    Kok, Victor C

    2015-01-01

    Background The use of compassionate extubation (CE) to alleviate suffering by terminating mechanical ventilation and withdrawing the endotracheal tube requires professional adherence and efficiency. The Hospice Palliative Care Act, amended on January 9, 2013, legalizes the CE procedure in Taiwan. Methods From September 20, 2013 to September 2, 2014, the hospice palliative care team at a community hospital received 20 consultations for CE. Eight cases were excluded because of non-qualification. Following approval from the Ethics Committee, the medical records of the remaining 12 patients were reviewed and grouped by the underlying disease: A, “terminal-stage cancer”; B, “non-cancer out-of-hospital cardiac arrest”; and C, “non-cancer organ failure”. Time to extubation using a cut-off at 48 hours was assessed. Results The mean ages of patients (standard deviation) in groups A, B, and C were 66.3 (14.9) years, 72 (19.1) years, and 80.3 (4.0) years, respectively. The mean number of days of intubation at consultation were 6.8 (4.9), 7.3 (4.9), and 179.3 (271.6), respectively. The mean total doses of opioids (as morphine-equivalent dose) in the 24 hours preceding CE were 76 (87.5) mg, 3.3 (5.8) mg, and 43.3 (15.3) mg. The median times from extubation (range) to death were 97 (0.2–245) hours, 0.3 (0.2–0.4) hours, and 6.1 (3.6–71.8) hours. Compared to those requiring <48-hour preparatory time, patients requiring >48 hours to the moment of CE were younger (62.8 years vs 75.5 years), required a mean time of 122 hours (vs 30 hours) to CE (P=0.004), had shorter length of stay (33.3 days vs 77.8 days), required specialist social worker intervention in 75% of cases (vs 37.5%), and had a median duration of intubation of 11.5 days (vs 5.5 days). Conclusion CE was carried out according to protocol, and the median time from extubation to death varies determined by the underlying disease which was 0.3 hour in patients admitted after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest and

  8. Testing failure surface prediction methods and deposit reconstruction for the landslides cluster occurring during Talas Typhoon (Japan)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaboyedoff, Michel; Chigira, Masahiro; Arai, Noriyuki; Derron, Marc-Henri; Rudaz, Benjamin; Tsou, Ching-Ying

    2016-04-01

    Talas Typhoon hit Japan from 2 to 5 September 2011. It induced more than 70 deep-seated landslides in Kii peninsula. The hi-resolution topography of these landslides have been acquired by aerial 1 m LiDAR digital elevation models (DEM) before (pre-DEM) and after (post-DEM) the events (data from Nara prefectural Government and the Kinki Regional development Bureau of Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transportation, and Tourism). This extraordinary opportunity allows us to test methods to construct failure surface geometries, buried valley topographies and/or to rebuild deposits surfaces. We tested the sloping base local level method (SLBL) on 5 deep seated landslides which occurred during Typhoon Talas (Akatani, Kitamata, Nagatono, Shimizu and Akatani-East; see Chigira et al., 2013). The SLBL corresponds to a quadratic surface with a constant second derivative in all x-y directions. This curvature can be based on the knowledge of the length of the landslide and its maximum thickness. We used mainly hillshade DEM, slope maps and Coltop schemes to define the limits of landslides and to interpret their structures. Different attempts were performed to reconstruct the failure surface and deposits depending on a priori knowledge. Basically the morphological features extracted from the pre-DEM were used to delineate the limits of the landslides. The curvature of the failure surface was obtained by "expert" interpretations. The failure surfaces obtained using SLBL are in good agreement with the failure surface observed on the post-DEM. The results are improved when (1) they are adjusted to obtain similar estimate of the volume deduced by Chigira et al. (2013), and when (2) the contours of the landslides used comes from an interpretation of both post and pre-DEM. In order to obtain the expansion coefficient some of these landslide, the missing volume of the deposits (by river erosion) were calculated using inverse SLBL. The coefficient of expansion ranges from 13% to 30

  9. Prediction of Hip Failure Load: In Vitro Study of 80 Femurs Using Three Imaging Methods and Finite Element Models-The European Fracture Study (EFFECT).

    PubMed

    Pottecher, Pierre; Engelke, Klaus; Duchemin, Laure; Museyko, Oleg; Moser, Thomas; Mitton, David; Vicaut, Eric; Adams, Judith; Skalli, Wafa; Laredo, Jean Denis; Bousson, Valérie

    2016-09-01

    Purpose To evaluate the performance of three imaging methods (radiography, dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry [DXA], and quantitative computed tomography [CT]) and that of a numerical analysis with finite element modeling (FEM) in the prediction of failure load of the proximal femur and to identify the best densitometric or geometric predictors of hip failure load. Materials and Methods Institutional review board approval was obtained. A total of 40 pairs of excised cadaver femurs (mean patient age at time of death, 82 years ± 12 [standard deviation]) were examined with (a) radiography to measure geometric parameters (lengths, angles, and cortical thicknesses), (b) DXA (reference standard) to determine areal bone mineral densities (BMDs), and (c) quantitative CT with dedicated three-dimensional analysis software to determine volumetric BMDs and geometric parameters (neck axis length, cortical thicknesses, volumes, and moments of inertia), and (d) quantitative CT-based FEM to calculate a numerical value of failure load. The 80 femurs were fractured via mechanical testing, with random assignment of one femur from each pair to the single-limb stance configuration (hereafter, stance configuration) and assignment of the paired femur to the sideways fall configuration (hereafter, side configuration). Descriptive statistics, univariate correlations, and stepwise regression models were obtained for each imaging method and for FEM to enable us to predict failure load in both configurations. Results Statistics reported are for stance and side configurations, respectively. For radiography, the strongest correlation with mechanical failure load was obtained by using a geometric parameter combined with a cortical thickness (r(2) = 0.66, P < .001; r(2) = 0.65, P < .001). For DXA, the strongest correlation with mechanical failure load was obtained by using total BMD (r(2) = 0.73, P < .001) and trochanteric BMD (r(2) = 0.80, P < .001). For quantitative CT, in both configurations

  10. Response Prediction and Influence of Tolvaptan in Chronic Heart Failure Patients Considering the Interaction of the Renin-Angiotensin-Aldosterone System and Arginine Vasopressin.

    PubMed

    Kadota, Muneyuki; Ise, Takayuki; Yagi, Shusuke; Iwase, Takashi; Akaike, Masashi; Ueno, Rie; Kawabata, Yutaka; Hara, Tomoya; Ogasawara, Kozue; Bando, Mika; Bando, Sachiko; Matsuura, Tomomi; Yamaguchi, Koji; Yamada, Hirotsugu; Soeki, Takeshi; Wakatsuki, Tetsuzo; Sata, Masataka

    2016-07-27

    The renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS) and arginine vasopressin (AVP) regulate body fluids. Although conventional diuretics have been used for treating heart failure, they activate RAAS and exacerbate renal function. Tolvaptan, a newly developed vasopressin-2 receptor antagonist, elicits aquaresis and improves volume overload in heart failure patients, however, the predictors of tolvaptan effectiveness and the influence on the RAAS and renal function according to tolvaptan therapy are not established. We evaluated 26 chronic heart failure patients receiving therapy with 15 mg/day tolvaptan and examined their laboratory and urinary data before and after tolvaptan therapy. A response to tolvaptan was defined as a body weight decrease by more than 2 kg in a week and a urine volume increase by 500 mL/ day compared with that before tolvaptan administration. Body weight, urine volume, and brain natriuretic peptide levels significantly improved (P < 0.05), without any worsening of renal function represented by serum creatinine, sodium, and potassium. Moreover, no significant changes were observed in the plasma renin activity and plasma aldosterone concentration (PAC). In the responder group, urine osmolality before tolvaptan administration was significantly higher (P < 0.05) but declined significantly after tolvaptan administration (P < 0.05). The AVP/PAC ratio before administration was positively correlated with the efficacy of tolvaptan. Tolvaptan treatment could prevent RAAS activation in chronic heart failure patients. Moreover, monitoring the AVP/PAC ratio may be useful in predicting the tolvaptan response. PMID:27357439

  11. Prediction and Control of Network Cascade: Example of Power Grid or Networking Adaptability from WMD Disruption and Cascading Failures

    SciTech Connect

    Chertkov, Michael

    2012-07-24

    The goal of the DTRA project is to develop a mathematical framework that will provide the fundamental understanding of network survivability, algorithms for detecting/inferring pre-cursors of abnormal network behaviors, and methods for network adaptability and self-healing from cascading failures.

  12. Extended prediction rule to optimise early detection of heart failure in older persons with non-acute shortness of breath: a cross-sectional study

    PubMed Central

    van Riet, Evelien E S; Hoes, Arno W; Limburg, Alexander; Landman, Marcel A J; Kemperman, Hans; Rutten, Frans H

    2016-01-01

    Objectives There is a need for a practical tool to aid general practitioners in early detection of heart failure in the elderly with shortness of breath. In this study, such a screening rule was developed based on an existing rule for detecting heart failure in older persons with a diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The original rule included a history of ischaemic heart disease, body mass index, laterally displaced apex beat, heart rate, elevated N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide and an abnormal ECG. Design Cross-sectional data were used to validate, update and extend the original prediction rule according to a standardised state-of-the-art stepwise approach. Setting Primary care with 30 participating general practices. Participants Community-dwelling people aged ≥65 years with shortness of breath on exertion. Methods and results Validation of the existing screening rule in our population showed satisfying discrimination with a concordance statistic of 0.84 (range 0.80–0.85), but poor calibration. Performance measures were most improved by adding the predictors age >75 years, peripheral oedema and systolic murmur, resulting in a concordance statistic of 0.88 (range 0.85–0.90) and a net reclassification improvement of 31%. A risk score was computed, which showed high accuracy with a negative predictive value of 87% and a positive predictive value of 73%. Evaluating the improved rule in the derivation set and an independent set of patients with type 2 diabetes aged 60 years or older showed satisfying generalisability of the rule. Conclusions Our rule resulted in excellent prediction of heart failure in the large domain of the elderly with shortness of breath, and would help general practitioners to select those needing echocardiography. Trial registration number NCT01202006. PMID:26880668

  13. [Sugammadex reversal after extubation under muscle relaxation to prevent cough reflex in a patient with intractable spontaneous pneumothorax].

    PubMed

    Ota, Chiho; Ueta, Kazuyoshi; Imada, Tatsuyuki; Hayashi, Yukio; Mashimo, Takashi

    2013-08-01

    A 40-year-old man (168 cm tall and weighing 71 kg) with intractable pneumothorax was operated for resection of a bulla in the left lung. After insertion of epidural catheter via T 5-6 interspace, general anesthesia was induced and maintained with propofol, remifentanil and rocuronium. The duration of surgery was 1h 48 min and rocuronium given during surgery was 110 mg. After completion of surgery, the double-lumen tube was replaced with laryngeal mask airway to prevent cough reflex. However, infusion of sugammadex 200 mg induced mild cough reflex, resulting in air leakage from thoracic drainage. Because air leakage still continued after extubation, reoperation must be done and re-intubation was required. Since rocuronium 50 mg did not provide satisfactory muscle relaxation measured by train of four, additional dose of rocuronium 40 mg was administered and re-intubation was successfully performed without cough reflex. Reoperation lasted for 43 minutes and rocuronium infused was 100 mg. Nasal airway was inserted to prevent airway obstruction by the tongue and extubation was performed under muscle relaxation with infusion of rocuronium 10 mg. And then, immediate administration of sugammadex 400 mg could elicit spontaneous respiration without cough reflex. PMID:23984577

  14. High-Sensitivity Troponin I and Amino-Terminal Pro–B-Type Natriuretic Peptide Predict Heart Failure and Mortality in the General Population

    PubMed Central

    McKie, Paul M.; AbouEzzeddine, Omar F.; Scott, Christopher G.; Mehta, Ramila; Rodeheffer, Richard J.; Redfield, Margaret M.; Burnett, John C.; Jaffe, Allan S.

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION High-sensitivity cardiac troponin assays have potent prognostic value in stable cardiovascular disease cohorts. Our objective was to assess the prognostic utility of a novel cardiac troponin I (cTnI) high-sensitivity assay, independently and in combination with amino-terminal pro–B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), for the future development of heart failure and mortality in the general community. METHODS A well-characterized community-based cohort of 2042 participants underwent clinical assessment and echocardiographic evaluation. Baseline measurements of cTnI with a high-sensitivity assay and NT-proBNP were obtained in 1843 individuals. Participants were followed for new-onset heart failure and mortality with median (25th, 75th percentile) follow-up of 10.7 (7.9, 11.6) and 12.1 (10.4, 13.0) years, respectively. RESULTS When measured with a high-sensitivity assay, cTnI greater than the sex-specific 80th percentile was independently predictive of heart failure [hazard ratio 2.56 (95% confidence interval 1.88 – 3.50), P < 0.001] and mortality [1.91(1.49 – 2.46), P < 0.001] beyond conventional risk factors in this community-based cohort, with significant increases in the net reclassification improvement for heart failure. The prognostic utility of cTnI measured with a high-sensitivity assay goes beyond NT-proBNP, yet our data suggest that these 2 assays are complementary and most beneficial when evaluated together in identifying at-risk individuals in the community. CONCLUSIONS Our findings lay the foundation for prospective studies aimed at identification of individuals at high risk by use of a multimarker approach, followed by aggressive prevention strategies to prevent subsequent heart failure. PMID:24987112

  15. SU-F-BRD-16: Under Dose Regions Recalculated by Monte Carlo Cannot Predict the Local Failure for NSCLC Patients Treated with SBRT

    SciTech Connect

    Liu, H; Cherian, S; Stephans, K; Videtic, G; Qi, P; Xia, P; Zhuang, T

    2014-06-15

    Purpose: To investigate whether Monte Carlo (MC) recalculated dose distributions can predict the geometric location of the recurrence for nonsmall cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients treated with stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT). Methods: Thirty NSCLC patients with local recurrence were retrospectively selected for this study. The recurred gross target volumes (rGTV) were delineated on the follow-up CT/PET images and then rigidly transferred via imaging fusion to the original planning CTs. Failure pattern was defined according to the overlap between the rGTV and planning GTV (pGTV) as: (a) in-field failure (≥80%), (b) marginal failure (20%–80%), and (c) out-of-field failure (≤20%). All clinical plans were calculated initially with pencil beam (PB) with or without heterogeneity correction dependent of protocols. These plans were recalculated with MC with heterogeneity correction. Because of non-uniform dose distributions in the rGTVs, the rGTVs were further divided into four regions: inside the pGTV (GTVin), inside the PTV (PTVin), outside the pGTV (GTVout), and outside the PTV (PTVout). The mean doses to these regions were reported and analyzed separately. Results: Among 30 patients, 10 patients had infield recurrences, 15 marginal and 5 out-of-field failures. With MC calculations, D95 and D99 of the PTV were reduced by (10.6 ± 7.4)% and (11.7 ± 7.9)%. The average MC calculated mean doses of GTVin, GTVout, PTVin and PTVout were 48.2 ± 5.3 Gy, 48.2 ± 5.5 Gy, 46.3 ± 6.2 Gy and 46.6 ± 5.6 Gy, respectively. No significant dose differences between GTVin and GTVout (p=0.65), PTVin and PTVout (p=0.19) were observed, using the paired students t-test. Conclusion: Although the PB calculations underestimated the tumor target doses, the geometric location of the recurrence did not correlate with the mean doses of subsections of the recurrent GTV. Under dose regions recalculated by MC cannot predict the local failure for NSCLC patients treated with SBRT.

  16. The predictive value of plasma biomarkers in discharged heart failure patients: role of troponin I/T.

    PubMed

    Perna, Eduardo R; Címbaro Canella, Juan P; Coronel, Maria L; Macin, Stella M

    2016-04-01

    Hospitalization for heart failure (HHF) is a frequent manifestation of chronic heart failure (CHF), and represents the moment of greatest impact on costs and on risk for the patient, in particular after discharge. Contributing factors to this disappointingly high postdischarge event rate include the incomplete relief of fluid overload, insufficient patient education, the lack of implementation of evidence-based therapies, poor follow-up and inadequate risk stratification before leaving hospital. Among available tools, different biomarkers have been tested, including cardiac troponin (cTn). The value of cTn to monitoring and to stratifying risk before discharge has been evaluated by mean of three strategies: a single measurement before discharge, monitoring with serial sampling during hospitalization, and comparing admission and predischarge values to establishing the cTn "delta". Acute heart failure syndrome (AHFS) is an active and continuing process, which starts at admission, but its evolution might be unpredictable, and the prevention of ongoing myocardial damage (OMD) might be one of the important targets to improve prognosis. OMD is also a dynamic process and can be detected in CHF and HHF, at different moments and in diverse magnitudes, justifying the cTn monitoring. The favorable effect of drugs on cTn release and its association with better prognosis have increased our expectation for the role of serial determination in HHF patients. PMID:26603616

  17. Posttransplant Hyponatremia Predicts Graft Failure and Mortality in Kidney Transplantation Recipients: A Multicenter Cohort Study in Korea

    PubMed Central

    Han, Miyeun; Park, Jae Yoon; An, Jung Nam; Park, Seokwoo; Park, Su-Kil; Han, Duck-Jong; Na, Ki Young; Oh, Yun Kyu; Lim, Chun Soo; Kim, Yon Su

    2016-01-01

    Although hyponatremia is related to poorer outcomes in several clinical settings, its significance remains unresolved in kidney transplantation. Data on 1,786 patients who received kidney transplantations between January 2000 and December 2011 were analyzed. The patients were divided into two groups according to the corrected sodium values for serum glucose 3 months after their transplantations (<135 mmol/L vs. ≥135 mmol/L). Subsequently, the hazard ratios (HRs) for biopsy-proven acute rejection, graft failure, and all-cause mortality were calculated after adjustments for several immunological and non-immunological covariates. 4.0% of patients had hyponatremia. Patients with hyponatremia had higher risks for graft failure and all-cause mortality than did the counterpart normonatremia group; the adjusted HRs for graft failure and mortality were 3.21 (1.47–6.99) and 3.03 (1.21–7.54), respectively. These relationships remained consistent irrespective of heart function. However, hyponatremia was not associated with the risk of acute rejection. The present study addressed the association between hyponatremia and graft and patient outcomes in kidney transplant recipients. Based on the study results, our recommendation is to monitor serum sodium levels after kidney transplantations. PMID:27214138

  18. Donor preoperative oxygen delivery and post-extubation hypoxia impact donation after circulatory death hypoxic cholangiopathy

    PubMed Central

    Chirichella, Thomas J; Dunham, C Michael; Zimmerman, Michael A; Phelan, Elise M; Mandell, M Susan; Conzen, Kendra D; Kelley, Stephen E; Nydam, Trevor L; Bak, Thomas E; Kam, Igal; Wachs, Michael E

    2016-01-01

    .10). HC was independently associated with age, multi-pressor/red-cell transfusion status, arterial oxygen content, hypoxia score, and mean arterial pressure (r2 = 0.6197). The transplantation rate was greater for the later period with more liberal donor selection [era 2 (7.1/year)], compared to our early experience [era 1 (2.5/year)]. HC occurred in 63.0% during era 2 and in 29.4% during era 1 (P = 0.03). Era 2 donors had longer times for extubation-to-asystole (14.4 ± 4.7 m vs 9.3 ± 4.5 m, P = 0.001), ischemia (13.9 ± 5.9 m vs 9.7 ± 5.6 m, P = 0.03), and hypoxemia (16.0 ± 5.1 m vs 11.1 ± 6.7 m, P = 0.013) and a higher hypoxia score > 2.0 rate (73.1% vs 28.6%, P = 0.006). CONCLUSION: Easily measured donor indices, including a hypoxia score, provide an objective measure of DCD liver transplantation risk for recipient HC. Donor selection criteria influence HC rates. PMID:27022221

  19. Effluent Free Radicals are Associated with Residual Renal Function and Predict Technique Failure in Peritoneal Dialysis Patients

    PubMed Central

    Morinaga, Hiroshi; Sugiyama, Hitoshi; Inoue, Tatsuyuki; Takiue, Keiichi; Kikumoto, Yoko; Kitagawa, Masashi; Akagi, Shigeru; Nakao, Kazushi; Maeshima, Yohei; Miyazaki, Ikuko; Asanuma, Masato; Hiramatsu, Makoto; Makino, Hirofumi

    2012-01-01

    ♦ Objective: Residual renal function (RRF) is associated with low oxidative stress in peritoneal dialysis (PD). In the present study, we investigated the relationship between the impact of oxidative stress on RRF and patient outcomes during PD. ♦ Methods: Levels of free radicals (FRs) in effluent from the overnight dwell in 45 outpatients were determined by electron spin resonance spectrometry. The FR levels, clinical parameters, and the level of 8-hydroxy-2′-deoxyguanosine were evaluated at study start. The effects of effluent FR level on technique and patient survival were analyzed in a prospective cohort followed for 24 months. ♦ Results: Levels of effluent FRs showed significant negative correlations with daily urine volume and residual renal Kt/V, and positive correlations with plasma β2-microglobulin and effluent 8-hydroxy-2′-deoxyguanosine. A highly significant difference in technique survival (p < 0.05), but not patient survival, was observed for patients grouped by effluent FR quartile. The effluent FR level was independently associated with technique failure after adjusting for patient age, history of cardiovascular disease, and presence of diabetes mellitus (p < 0.001). The level of effluent FRs was associated with death-censored technique failure in both univariate (p < 0.001) and multivariate (p < 0.01) hazard models. Compared with patients remaining on PD, those withdrawn from the modality had significantly higher levels of effluent FRs (p < 0.005). ♦ Conclusions: Elevated effluent FRs are associated with RRF and technique failure in stable PD patients. These findings highlight the importance of oxidative stress as an unfavorable prognostic factor in PD and emphasize that steps should be taken to minimize oxidative stress in these patients. PMID:22215657

  20. Predictive Factors for the Effect of Treatment by Noninvasive Ventilation in Patients with Respiratory Failure as a Result of Acute Exacerbation of the Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

    PubMed Central

    Pejkovska, Sava; Kaeva, Biserka Jovkovska; Goseva, Zlatica; Arsovski, Zoran; Janeva, Jelena Jovanovska; Zeynel, Sead

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Noninvasive mechanical ventilation (NIV) applies ventilator support through the patient’s upper airway using a mask. AIM: The aim of the study is to define factors that will point out an increased risk of NIV failure in patients with exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients over the age of 40, treated with NIV, were prospectively recruited. After data processing, the patients were divided into two groups: 1) successful NIV treatment group; 2) failed NIV treatment group. RESULTS: On admission arterial pH and Glasgow coma scale (GCS) levels were lower (pH: p < 0.05, GCS: p < 0.05), and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE) score and PaCO2 were higher (p < 0.05) in the NIV failure group. Arterial pH was lower (p < 0.05) and PaCO2 and respiratory rate were higher (p < 0.05) after 1h, and arterial pH was lower (p < 0.05) and PaCO2 (p < 0.05), respiratory and heart rate were higher (p < 0.05) after 4h in the NIV failure group. CONCLUSION: Measurement and monitoring of certain parameters may be of value in terms of predicting the effectiveness of NIV treatment. PMID:27275303

  1. Prediction of the shape of a shallow failure on a mountain slope: The three-dimensional multi-planar sliding surface method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Okimura, Takashi

    1994-05-01

    A three-dimensional multi-planar sliding surface method developed from the two-dimensional method is proposed to identify the shape and/or volume of a shallow failure that appears on a mountain slope during heavy rainfall. The method is constructed to satisfy the equilibrium of forces in the cross-sectional and longitudinal directions on an assumed sliding mass that is regarded as being rectangular in plan shape. It was applied to a digital elevation model to determine the site and form of a critical sliding mass on a mountain slope. Calculations made with a testing model of a simple planar slope show that the safety factor calculated using this method is similar to factots obtained by the 3D Hovland and 3D simplified Janbu methods. The method was applied to an actual mountain slope on which a shallow failure caused by heavy rainfall took place. The most probable unstable mass calculated by the model was almost the same as that at the failed site. The method proposed can be used to predict a potentially unstable mass that leads to shallow failure.

  2. Prediction of Triggered Slip and Aftershocks in the Salton Trough: Which is Better, Dynamic or Static Coulomb Failure Stresses?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clark, J.; Verdugo, D.; Olsen, K.; Mellors, R.

    2005-12-01

    We have modeled static (CFS) and dynamic (dCFS(t)) Coulomb failure stresses within a 140 km by 140 km area in southern California for four recent historical M>6 earthquakes (1968 Borrego Valley, 1979 Imperial Valley, 1987 Elmore Ranch and 1987 Superstition Hills events) using a fourth-order finite-difference method and a layered crustal model. The dynamic stresses, quantified as the peak values of the dCFS(t), are computed using slip models estimated from measured surface offsets and extended down to the bottom of the fault. The CFS and dCFS(t) are correlated with aseismic slip recorded on nearby structures in the Salton Trough, as well as aftershocks from the four events. Our simple models suggest that, compared to static Coulomb failure stress patterns, the patterns of peak dCFS(t) show a higher correlation with triggered slip along nearby faults, and for some of the events, with the location of aftershocks that occurred up to four years after the events. This finding is due to the rupture propagation effects, particularly directivity, included in the dCFS(t) (e.g., Kilb et al, 2000), but omitted for the CFS. Future studies should include a 3D crustal model and refined rupture propagation in the dCFS(t) computation.

  3. Assessment of predictive models for the failure of titanium and ferrous alloys due to hydrogen effects. Report for the period of June 16 to September 15, 1981

    SciTech Connect

    Archbold, T.F.; Bower, R.B.; Polonis, D.H.

    1982-04-01

    The 1977 version of the Simpson-Puls-Dutton model appears to be the most amenable with respect to utilizing known or readily estimated quantities. The Pardee-Paton model requires extensive calculations involving estimated quantities. Recent observations by Koike and Suzuki on vanadium support the general assumption that crack growth in hydride forming metals is determined by the rate of hydride formation, and their hydrogen atmosphere-displacive transformation model is of potential interest in explaining hydrogen embrittlement in ferrous alloys as well as hydride formers. The discontinuous nature of cracking due to hydrogen embrittlement appears to depend very strongly on localized stress intensities, thereby pointing to the role of microstructure in influencing crack initiation, fracture mode and crack path. The initiation of hydrogen induced failures over relatively short periods of time can be characterized with fair reliability using measurements of the threshold stress intensity. The experimental conditions for determining K/sub Th/ and ..delta..K/sub Th/ are designed to ensure plane strain conditions in most cases. Plane strain test conditions may be viewed as a conservative basis for predicting delayed failure. The physical configuration of nuclear waste canisters may involve elastic/plastic conditions rather than a state of plane strain, especially with thin-walled vessels. Under these conditions, alternative predictive tests may be considered, including COD and R-curve methods. The double cantilever beam technique employed by Boyer and Spurr on titanium alloys offers advantages for examining hydrogen induced delayed failure over long periods of time. 88 references. (DLC)

  4. Methodology to predict delayed failure due to slow crack growth in ceramic tubular components using data from simple specimens

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jadaan, O. M.; Tressler, R. E.

    1993-04-01

    The methodology to predict the lifetime of sintered alpha-silicon carbide (S4SC) tubes subjected to slow crack growth (SCG) conditions involved the experimental determination of the SCG parameters of that material and the scaling analysis to project the stress rupture data from small specimens to large components. Dynamic fatigue testing, taking into account the effect of threshold stress intensity factor, of O-ring and compressed C-ring specimens was used to obtain the SCG parameters. These SCG parameters were in excellent agreement with those published in the literature and extracted from stress rupture tests of tensile and bend specimens. Two methods were used to predict the lifetimes of internally heated and pressurized SASC tubes. The first is a fracture mechanics approach that is well known in the literature. The second method used a scaling analysis in which the stress rupture distribution (lifetime) of any specimen configuration can be predicted from stress rupture data of another.

  5. Effect of Residual Stresses and Prediction of Possible Failure Mechanisms on Thermal Barrier Coating System by Finite Element Method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ranjbar-Far, M.; Absi, J.; Mariaux, G.; Shahidi, S.

    2010-09-01

    This work is focused on the effect of the residual stresses resulting from the coating process and thermal cycling on the failure mechanisms within the thermal barrier coating (TBC) system. To reach this objective, we studied the effect of the substrate preheating and cooling rate on the coating process conditions. A new thermomechanical finite element model (FEM) considering a nonhomogeneous temperature distribution has been developed. In the results, we observed a critical stress corresponding to a low substrate temperature and high cooling rate during spraying of the top-coat material. Moreover, the analysis of the stress distribution after service shows that more critical stresses are obtained in the case where residual stresses are taken into account.

  6. Leukemia-induced phenotypic and functional defects in natural killer cells predict failure to achieve remission in acute myeloid leukemia.

    PubMed

    Stringaris, Kate; Sekine, Takuya; Khoder, Ahmad; Alsuliman, Abdullah; Razzaghi, Bonnie; Sargeant, Ruhena; Pavlu, Jiri; Brisley, Gill; de Lavallade, Hugues; Sarvaria, Anushruthi; Marin, David; Mielke, Stephan; Apperley, Jane F; Shpall, Elizabeth J; Barrett, A John; Rezvani, Katayoun

    2014-05-01

    The majority of patients with acute myeloid leukemia will relapse, and older patients often fail to achieve remission with induction chemotherapy. We explored the possibility that leukemic suppression of innate immunity might contribute to treatment failure. Natural killer cell phenotype and function was measured in 32 consecutive acute myeloid leukemia patients at presentation, including 12 achieving complete remission. Compared to 15 healthy age-matched controls, natural killer cells from acute myeloid leukemia patients were abnormal at presentation, with downregulation of the activating receptor NKp46 (P=0.007) and upregulation of the inhibitory receptor NKG2A (P=0.04). Natural killer cells from acute myeloid leukemia patients had impaired effector function against autologous blasts and K562 targets, with significantly reduced CD107a degranulation, TNF-α and IFN-γ production. Failure to achieve remission was associated with NKG2A overexpression and reduced TNF-α production. These phenotypic and functional abnormalities were partially restored in the 12 patients achieving remission. In vitro co-incubation of acute myeloid leukemia blasts with natural killer cells from healthy donors induced significant impairment in natural killer cell TNF-α and IFN-γ production (P=0.02 and P=0.01, respectively) against K562 targets and a trend to reduced CD107a degranulation (P=0.07). Under transwell conditions, the inhibitory effect of AML blasts on NK cytotoxicity and effector function was still present, and this inhibitory effect was primarily mediated by IL-10. These results suggest that acute myeloid leukemia blasts induce long-lasting changes in natural killer cells, impairing their effector function and reducing the competence of the innate immune system, favoring leukemia survival. PMID:24488563

  7. Leukemia-induced phenotypic and functional defects in natural killer cells predict failure to achieve remission in acute myeloid leukemia

    PubMed Central

    Stringaris, Kate; Sekine, Takuya; Khoder, Ahmad; Alsuliman, Abdullah; Razzaghi, Bonnie; Sargeant, Ruhena; Pavlu, Jiri; Brisley, Gill; de Lavallade, Hugues; Sarvaria, Anushruthi; Marin, David; Mielke, Stephan; Apperley, Jane F.; Shpall, Elizabeth J.; Barrett, A. John; Rezvani, Katayoun

    2014-01-01

    The majority of patients with acute myeloid leukemia will relapse, and older patients often fail to achieve remission with induction chemotherapy. We explored the possibility that leukemic suppression of innate immunity might contribute to treatment failure. Natural killer cell phenotype and function was measured in 32 consecutive acute myeloid leukemia patients at presentation, including 12 achieving complete remission. Compared to 15 healthy age-matched controls, natural killer cells from acute myeloid leukemia patients were abnormal at presentation, with downregulation of the activating receptor NKp46 (P=0.007) and upregulation of the inhibitory receptor NKG2A (P=0.04). Natural killer cells from acute myeloid leukemia patients had impaired effector function against autologous blasts and K562 targets, with significantly reduced CD107a degranulation, TNF-α and IFN-γ production. Failure to achieve remission was associated with NKG2A overexpression and reduced TNF-α production. These phenotypic and functional abnormalities were partially restored in the 12 patients achieving remission. In vitro co-incubation of acute myeloid leukemia blasts with natural killer cells from healthy donors induced significant impairment in natural killer cell TNF-α and IFN-γ production (P=0.02 and P=0.01, respectively) against K562 targets and a trend to reduced CD107a degranulation (P=0.07). Under transwell conditions, the inhibitory effect of AML blasts on NK cytotoxicity and effector function was still present, and this inhibitory effect was primarily mediated by IL-10. These results suggest that acute myeloid leukemia blasts induce long-lasting changes in natural killer cells, impairing their effector function and reducing the competence of the innate immune system, favoring leukemia survival. PMID:24488563

  8. Associations Between Prolonged Intubation and Developing Post-extubation Dysphagia and Aspiration Pneumonia in Non-neurologic Critically Ill Patients

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Min Jung; Park, Young Sook; Song, You Hong

    2015-01-01

    Objective To identify the associations between the duration of endotracheal intubation and developing post-extubational supraglottic and infraglottic aspiration (PEA) and subsequent aspiration pneumonia. Methods This was a retrospective observational study from January 2009 to November 2014 of all adult patients who had non-neurologic critical illness, required endotracheal intubation and were referred for videofluoroscopic swallowing study. Demographic information, intensive care unit (ICU) admission diagnosis, severity of critical illness, duration of endotracheal intubation, length of stay in ICU, presence of PEA and severity of dysphagia were reviewed. Results Seventy-four patients were enrolled and their PEA frequency was 59%. Patients with PEA had significantly longer endotracheal intubation durations than did those without (median [interquartile range]: 15 [9-21] vs. 10 [6-15] days; p=0.02). In multivariate logistic regression analysis, the endotracheal intubation duration was significantly associated with PEA (odds ratio, 1.09; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01-1.18; p=0.04). Spearman correlation analysis of intubation duration and dysphagia severity showed a positive linear association (r=0.282, p=0.02). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) of endotracheal intubation duration for developing PEA and aspiration pneumonia were 0.665 (95% CI, 0.542-0.788; p=0.02) and 0.727 (95% CI, 0.614-0.840; p=0.001), respectively. Conclusion In non-neurologic critically ill patients, the duration of endotracheal intubation was independently associated with PEA development. Additionally, the duration was positively correlated with dysphagia severity and may be helpful for identifying patients who require a swallowing evaluation after extubation. PMID:26605174

  9. Feasibility and safety of on table extubation after corrective surgical repair of tetralogy of Fallot in a developing country: A case series

    PubMed Central

    Akhtar, Mohammad Irfan; Hamid, Mohammad; Anwar-Ul-Haq; Minai, Fauzia; Rehman, Naveed

    2015-01-01

    Fast-track extubation is an established safe practice in pediatric congenital heart disease (CHD) surgical patients. On table extubation (OTE) in acyanotic CHD surgical patients is well established with validated safety profile. This practice is not yet reported in tetralogy of Fallot (TOF) cardiac surgical repair patients in developing countries. Evidence suggests that TOF total correction patients should be extubated early, as positive pressure ventilation has a negative impact on right ventricular function and the overall increase in post-TOF repair complications such as low cardiac output state and arrhythmias. The objective of the case series was to determine the safety and feasibility of OTE in elective TOF total correction cardiac surgical patients with an integrated team approach. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first reported case series. A total of 8 elective male and female TOF patients were included. Standard anesthetic, surgical and perfusion techniques were used in these procedures. All patients were extubated in the operating room safely without any complications with the exception of one patient who continued to bleed for 3 h of postextubation at 2–3 ml/kg/h which was managed with transfusion of fresh frozen plasma at 15 mL/kg, packed red blood cells 10 mL/kg and bolus of transamine at 20 mg/kg. Apart from better surgical and bypass techniques, the most important factor leading to successful OTE was an excellent analgesia. On the basis of the case series, it is suggested to extubate selected TOF cardiac surgery repair patients on table safely with integrated multidisciplinary approach. PMID:25849700

  10. Feasibility and safety of on table extubation after corrective surgical repair of tetralogy of Fallot in a developing country: a case series.

    PubMed

    Akhtar, Mohammad Irfan; Hamid, Mohammad; Minai, Fauzia; Rehman, Naveed

    2015-01-01

    Fast-track extubation is an established safe practice in pediatric congenital heart disease (CHD) surgical patients. On table extubation (OTE) in acyanotic CHD surgical patients is well established with validated safety profile. This practice is not yet reported in tetralogy of Fallot (TOF) cardiac surgical repair patients in developing countries. Evidence suggests that TOF total correction patients should be extubated early, as positive pressure ventilation has a negative impact on right ventricular function and the overall increase in post-TOF repair complications such as low cardiac output state and arrhythmias. The objective of the case series was to determine the safety and feasibility of OTE in elective TOF total correction cardiac surgical patients with an integrated team approach. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first reported case series. A total of 8 elective male and female TOF patients were included. Standard anesthetic, surgical and perfusion techniques were used in these procedures. All patients were extubated in the operating room safely without any complications with the exception of one patient who continued to bleed for 3 h of postextubation at 2-3 ml/kg/h which was managed with transfusion of fresh frozen plasma at 15 mL/kg, packed red blood cells 10 mL/kg and bolus of transamine at 20 mg/kg. Apart from better surgical and bypass techniques, the most important factor leading to successful OTE was an excellent analgesia. On the basis of the case series, it is suggested to extubate selected TOF cardiac surgery repair patients on table safely with integrated multidisciplinary approach. PMID:25849700

  11. N-terminal pro b-type natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP) –based score can predict in-hospital mortality in patients with heart failure

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Ya-Ting; Tseng, Yuan-Teng; Chu, Tung-Wei; Chen, John; Lai, Min-Yu; Tang, Woung-Ru; Shiao, Chih-Chung

    2016-01-01

    Serum N-terminal pro b-type natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP) testing is recommended in the patients with heart failure (HF). We hypothesized that NT-pro-BNP, in combination with other clinical factors in terms of a novel NT-pro BNP-based score, may provide even better predictive power for in-hospital mortality among patients with HF. A retrospective study enrolled adult patients with hospitalization-requiring HF who fulfilled the predefined criteria during the period from January 2011 to December 2013. We proposed a novel scoring system consisting of several independent predictors including NT-pro-BNP for predicting in-hospital mortality, and then compared the prognosis-predictive power of the novel NT-pro BNP-based score with other prognosis-predictive scores. A total of 269 patients were enrolled in the current study. Factors such as “serum NT-pro-BNP level above 8100 mg/dl,” “age above 79 years,” “without taking angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blocker,” “without taking beta-blocker,” “without taking loop diuretics,” “with mechanical ventilator support,” “with non-invasive ventilator support,” “with vasopressors use,” and “experience of cardio-pulmonary resuscitation” were found as independent predictors. A novel NT-pro BNP-based score composed of these risk factors was proposed with excellent predictability for in-hospital mortality. The proposed novel NT-pro BNP-based score was extremely effective in predicting in-hospital mortality in HF patients. PMID:27411951

  12. N-terminal pro b-type natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP) -based score can predict in-hospital mortality in patients with heart failure.

    PubMed

    Huang, Ya-Ting; Tseng, Yuan-Teng; Chu, Tung-Wei; Chen, John; Lai, Min-Yu; Tang, Woung-Ru; Shiao, Chih-Chung

    2016-01-01

    Serum N-terminal pro b-type natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP) testing is recommended in the patients with heart failure (HF). We hypothesized that NT-pro-BNP, in combination with other clinical factors in terms of a novel NT-pro BNP-based score, may provide even better predictive power for in-hospital mortality among patients with HF. A retrospective study enrolled adult patients with hospitalization-requiring HF who fulfilled the predefined criteria during the period from January 2011 to December 2013. We proposed a novel scoring system consisting of several independent predictors including NT-pro-BNP for predicting in-hospital mortality, and then compared the prognosis-predictive power of the novel NT-pro BNP-based score with other prognosis-predictive scores. A total of 269 patients were enrolled in the current study. Factors such as "serum NT-pro-BNP level above 8100 mg/dl," "age above 79 years," "without taking angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blocker," "without taking beta-blocker," "without taking loop diuretics," "with mechanical ventilator support," "with non-invasive ventilator support," "with vasopressors use," and "experience of cardio-pulmonary resuscitation" were found as independent predictors. A novel NT-pro BNP-based score composed of these risk factors was proposed with excellent predictability for in-hospital mortality. The proposed novel NT-pro BNP-based score was extremely effective in predicting in-hospital mortality in HF patients. PMID:27411951

  13. Percentage of Biopsy Cores Positive for Malignancy and Biochemical Failure Following Prostate Cancer Radiotherapy in 3,264 Men: Statistical Significance Without Predictive Performance

    SciTech Connect

    Williams, Scott G. Buyyounouski, Mark K.; Pickles, Tom; Kestin, Larry; Martinez, Alvaro; Hanlon, Alexandra L.; Duchesne, Gillian M.

    2008-03-15

    Purpose: To define and incorporate the impact of the percentage of positive biopsy cores (PPC) into a predictive model of prostate cancer radiotherapy biochemical outcome. Methods and Materials: The data of 3264 men with clinically localized prostate cancer treated with external beam radiotherapy at four institutions were retrospectively analyzed. Standard prognostic and treatment factors plus the number of biopsy cores collected and the number positive for malignancy by transrectal ultrasound-guided biopsy were available. The primary endpoint was biochemical failure (bF, Phoenix definition). Multivariate proportional hazards analyses were performed and expressed as a nomogram and the model's predictive ability assessed using the concordance index (c-index). Results: The cohort consisted of 21% low-, 51% intermediate-, and 28% high-risk cancer patients, and 30% had androgen deprivation with radiotherapy. The median PPC was 50% (interquartile range [IQR] 29-67%), and median follow-up was 51 months (IQR 29-71 months). Percentage of positive biopsy cores displayed an independent association with the risk of bF (p = 0.01), as did age, prostate-specific antigen value, Gleason score, clinical stage, androgen deprivation duration, and radiotherapy dose (p < 0.001 for all). Including PPC increased the c-index from 0.72 to 0.73 in the overall model. The influence of PPC varied significantly with radiotherapy dose and clinical stage (p = 0.02 for both interactions), with doses <66 Gy and palpable tumors showing the strongest relationship between PPC and bF. Intermediate-risk patients were poorly discriminated regardless of PPC inclusion (c-index 0.65 for both models). Conclusions: Outcome models incorporating PPC show only minor additional ability to predict biochemical failure beyond those containing standard prognostic factors.

  14. Markers of beta cell failure predict poor glycemic response to GLP-1 receptor agonist therapy in type 2 diabetes

    PubMed Central

    Jones, Angus G; McDonald, Timothy J; Shields, Beverley M; Hill, Anita V; Hyde, Christopher J; Knight, Bridget A; Hattersley, Andrew T

    2016-01-01

    Objective To assess whether clinical characteristics and simple biomarkers of beta cell failure are associated with individual variation in glycemic response to GLP-1 receptor agonist therapy in patients with type 2 diabetes. Research Design and Methods We prospectively studied 620 participants with type 2 diabetes and HbA1c ≥58mmol/mol (7.5%) commencing GLP-1 receptor agonist therapy as part of their usual diabetes care and assessed response to therapy over 6 months. We assessed the association between baseline clinical measurements associated with beta cell failure and glycemic response (HbA1c change 0 to 6 months, primary outcome) with change in weight (0 to 6 months) as a secondary outcome using linear regression and ANOVA with adjustment for baseline HbA1c and co-treatment change. Results Reduced glycemic response to GLP-1R agonists was associated with longer duration diabetes, insulin co-treatment, lower fasting C-peptide, lower post meal urine C-peptide creatinine ratio and positive GAD or IA2 islet autoantibodies (p≤0.01 for all). Participants with positive autoantibodies or severe insulin deficiency (fasting C-peptide ≤0.25nmol/L) had markedly reduced glycemic response to GLP-1RA therapy (autoantibodies: mean HbA1c change -5.2 vs -15.2 mmol/mol (-0.5 vs -1.4%), p=0.005 C-peptide <0.25nmol/L: mean change -2.1 vs -15.3mmol/mol (-0.2 vs -1.4%), p=0.002). These markers were predominantly present in insulin treated participants and were not associated with weight change. Conclusions Clinical markers of low beta cell function are associated with reduced glycemic response to GLP-1R agonist therapy. C-peptide and islet autoantibodies represent potential biomarkers for the stratification of GLP-1R agonist therapy in insulin treated diabetes. PMID:26242184

  15. Comparison of Baseline versus Posttreatment Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction in Patients with Acute Decompensated Heart Failure for Predicting Cardiovascular Outcome: Implications from Single-Center Systolic Heart Failure Cohort

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Chao-Hung; Wen, Ming-Shien; Kuo, Chi-Tai; Tsai, Feng-Chun; Wu, Victor Chien-Chia; Chen, Tien-Hsing

    2016-01-01

    Aims The prognostic values of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) during heart failure (HF) with acute decompensation or after optimal treatment have not been extensively studied. We hypothesized that posttreatment LVEF has superior predictive value for long-term prognosis than LVEF at admission does. Methods and Results In Protocol 1, 428 acute decompensated HF (ADHF) patients with LVEF ≤35% in a tertiary medical center were enrolled and followed for a mean period of 34.7 ± 10.8 months. The primary and secondary end points were all-cause mortality and HF readmission, respectively. In total, 86 deaths and 240 HF readmissions were recorded. The predictive values of baseline LVEF at admission and LVEF 6 months posttreatment were analyzed and compared. The posttreatment LVEFs were predictive for future events (P = 0.01 for all-cause mortality, P < 0.001 for HF readmission), but the baseline LVEFs were not. In Protocol 2, the outcomes of patients with improved LVEF (change of LVEF: ≥+10%), unchanged LVEF (change of LVEF: –10% to +10%), and reduced LVEF (change of LVEF: ≤–10%) were analyzed and compared. Improved LVEF occurred in 171 patients and was associated with a superior long-term prognosis among all groups (P = 0.02 for all-cause mortality, P < 0.001 for HF readmission). In Protocol 3, independent predictors of improved LVEF were analyzed, and baseline LV end-diastolic dimension (LVEDD) was identified as a powerful predictor in ADHF patients (P < 0.001). Conclusions In patients with ADHF, posttreatment LVEF but not baseline LVEF had prognostic power. Improved LVEF was associated with superior long-term prognosis, and baseline LVEDD identified patients who were more likely to have improved LVEF. Therefore, baseline LVEF should not be considered a relevant prognosis factor in clinical practice for patients with ADHF. PMID:26752417

  16. Minimizing the cost of translocation failure with decision-tree models that predict species' behavioral response in translocation sites.

    PubMed

    Ebrahimi, Mehregan; Ebrahimie, Esmaeil; Bull, C Michael

    2015-08-01

    The high number of failures is one reason why translocation is often not recommended. Considering how behavior changes during translocations may improve translocation success. To derive decision-tree models for species' translocation, we used data on the short-term responses of an endangered Australian skink in 5 simulated translocations with different release conditions. We used 4 different decision-tree algorithms (decision tree, decision-tree parallel, decision stump, and random forest) with 4 different criteria (gain ratio, information gain, gini index, and accuracy) to investigate how environmental and behavioral parameters may affect the success of a translocation. We assumed behavioral changes that increased dispersal away from a release site would reduce translocation success. The trees became more complex when we included all behavioral parameters as attributes, but these trees yielded more detailed information about why and how dispersal occurred. According to these complex trees, there were positive associations between some behavioral parameters, such as fight and dispersal, that showed there was a higher chance, for example, of dispersal among lizards that fought than among those that did not fight. Decision trees based on parameters related to release conditions were easier to understand and could be used by managers to make translocation decisions under different circumstances. PMID:25737134

  17. Computational models can predict response to HIV therapy without a genotype and may reduce treatment failure in different resource-limited settings

    PubMed Central

    Revell, A. D.; Wang, D.; Wood, R.; Morrow, C.; Tempelman, H.; Hamers, R. L.; Alvarez-Uria, G.; Streinu-Cercel, A.; Ene, L.; Wensing, A. M. J.; DeWolf, F.; Nelson, M.; Montaner, J. S.; Lane, H. C.; Larder, B. A.

    2013-01-01

    Objectives Genotypic HIV drug-resistance testing is typically 60%–65% predictive of response to combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) and is valuable for guiding treatment changes. Genotyping is unavailable in many resource-limited settings (RLSs). We aimed to develop models that can predict response to ART without a genotype and evaluated their potential as a treatment support tool in RLSs. Methods Random forest models were trained to predict the probability of response to ART (≤400 copies HIV RNA/mL) using the following data from 14 891 treatment change episodes (TCEs) after virological failure, from well-resourced countries: viral load and CD4 count prior to treatment change, treatment history, drugs in the new regimen, time to follow-up and follow-up viral load. Models were assessed by cross-validation during development, with an independent set of 800 cases from well-resourced countries, plus 231 cases from Southern Africa, 206 from India and 375 from Romania. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was the main outcome measure. Results The models achieved an AUC of 0.74–0.81 during cross-validation and 0.76–0.77 with the 800 test TCEs. They achieved AUCs of 0.58–0.65 (Southern Africa), 0.63 (India) and 0.70 (Romania). Models were more accurate for data from the well-resourced countries than for cases from Southern Africa and India (P < 0.001), but not Romania. The models identified alternative, available drug regimens predicted to result in virological response for 94% of virological failures in Southern Africa, 99% of those in India and 93% of those in Romania. Conclusions We developed computational models that predict virological response to ART without a genotype with comparable accuracy to genotyping with rule-based interpretation. These models have the potential to help optimize antiretroviral therapy for patients in RLSs where genotyping is not generally available. PMID:23485767

  18. Generalized energy failure criterion

    PubMed Central

    Qu, R. T.; Zhang, Z. J.; Zhang, P.; Liu, Z. Q.; Zhang, Z. F.

    2016-01-01

    Discovering a generalized criterion that can predict the mechanical failure of various different structural materials is one of ultimate goals for scientists in both material and mechanics communities. Since the first study on the failure criterion of materials by Galileo, about three centuries have passed. Now we eventually find the “generalized energy criterion”, as presented here, which appears to be one universal law for various different kinds of materials. The validity of the energy criterion for quantitatively predicting the failure is experimentally confirmed using a metallic glass. The generalized energy criterion reveals the competition and interaction between shear and cleavage, the two fundamental inherent failure mechanisms, and thus provides new physical insights into the failure prediction of materials and structural components. PMID:26996781

  19. Generalized energy failure criterion.

    PubMed

    Qu, R T; Zhang, Z J; Zhang, P; Liu, Z Q; Zhang, Z F

    2016-01-01

    Discovering a generalized criterion that can predict the mechanical failure of various different structural materials is one of ultimate goals for scientists in both material and mechanics communities. Since the first study on the failure criterion of materials by Galileo, about three centuries have passed. Now we eventually find the "generalized energy criterion", as presented here, which appears to be one universal law for various different kinds of materials. The validity of the energy criterion for quantitatively predicting the failure is experimentally confirmed using a metallic glass. The generalized energy criterion reveals the competition and interaction between shear and cleavage, the two fundamental inherent failure mechanisms, and thus provides new physical insights into the failure prediction of materials and structural components. PMID:26996781

  20. Generalized energy failure criterion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qu, R. T.; Zhang, Z. J.; Zhang, P.; Liu, Z. Q.; Zhang, Z. F.

    2016-03-01

    Discovering a generalized criterion that can predict the mechanical failure of various different structural materials is one of ultimate goals for scientists in both material and mechanics communities. Since the first study on the failure criterion of materials by Galileo, about three centuries have passed. Now we eventually find the “generalized energy criterion”, as presented here, which appears to be one universal law for various different kinds of materials. The validity of the energy criterion for quantitatively predicting the failure is experimentally confirmed using a metallic glass. The generalized energy criterion reveals the competition and interaction between shear and cleavage, the two fundamental inherent failure mechanisms, and thus provides new physical insights into the failure prediction of materials and structural components.

  1. Fatigue life prediction using multiaxial energy calculations with the mean stress effect to predict failure of linear and nonlinear elastic solids

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nagode, Marko; Šeruga, Domen

    An approach is presented that enables the calculation of elastic strain energy in linear and nonlinear elastic solids during arbitrary thermomechanical load cycles. The approach uses the simple fact that the variation of both strain and complementary energies always forms a rectangular shape in stress-strain space, hence integration is no longer required to calculate the energy. Furthermore, the approach considers the mean stress effect so that predictions of fatigue damage are more realistically representative of real-life experimental observations. By doing so, a parameter has been proposed to adjust the mean stress effect. This parameter α is based on the well-known Smith-Watson-Topper energy criterion, but allows consideration of other arbitrary mean stress effects, e.g. the Bergmann type criterion. The approach has then been incorporated into a numerical method which can be applied to uniaxial and multiaxial, proportional and non-proportional loadings to predict fatigue damage. The end result of the method is the cyclic evolution of accumulated damage. Numerical examples show how the method presented in this paper could be applied to a nonlinear elastic material.

  2. Combination of Urinary Sodium/Creatinine Ratio and Plasma Brain Natriuretic Peptide Level Predicts Successful Tolvaptan Therapy in Patients With Heart Failure and Volume Overload.

    PubMed

    Sato, Yuichi; Dohi, Kaoru; Watanabe, Kiyotaka; Tanimura, Muneyoshi; Takeuchi, Tetsushiro; Sugiura, Emiyo; Sugimoto, Tadafumi; Kumagai, Naoto; Ogura, Toru; Nakamori, Shiro; Fujimoto, Naoki; Yamada, Norikazu; Ito, Masaaki

    2016-01-01

    To evaluate the short-term clinical and hemodynamic effects of tolvaptan therapy and to identify predictors of the therapeutic outcomes, we retrospectively recruited 60 consecutive hospitalized heart failure (HF) patients (70 ± 11 years) with volume overload. The subjects were divided into two groups on the basis of the changes in HF symptom scores and hemodynamic status assessed by right heart catheterization after tolvaptan therapy (median: 7 days). The majority of patients were successfully treated (group 1). However, 22% of patients (group 2) were unsuccessfully treated, in whom 1) the HF symptom score worsened or 2) there was a stationary HF symptom score ≥ 6 points, and mean PCWP > 18 mmHg and mean RAP > 10 mmHg, after tolvaptan therapy. HF symptom scores, hemodynamic parameters, and plasma brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) level improved in group 1, but all of these parameters remained unchanged in group 2. Lower urine sodium/creatinine ratio (UNa/UCr) and higher BNP level at baseline were independently associated with unsuccessful tolvaptan therapy, and UNa/UCr best predicts unsuccessful tolvaptan therapy with a cut-off value of 46.5 mEq/g·Cr (AUC 0.847, 95% CI: 0.718-0.976, sensitivity 77%, specificity 81%, P < 0.01). Double-positive results of UNa/UCr < 46.5 mEq/g·Cr and plasma BNP level > 778 pg/mL predicted unsuccessful tolvaptan therapy with high diagnostic accuracy (sensitivity 54%, specificity 100%, positive predictive value 100%, negative predictive value 89%, and accuracy 90%). In summary, short-term tolvaptan therapy ameliorated HF symptoms and provided hemodynamic improvement in the majority of patients, and UNa/UCr and BNP level strongly predicted the therapeutic outcomes. PMID:26973271

  3. The clustering-based case-based reasoning for imbalanced business failure prediction: a hybrid approach through integrating unsupervised process with supervised process

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Hui; Yu, Jun-Ling; Yu, Le-An; Sun, Jie

    2014-05-01

    Case-based reasoning (CBR) is one of the main forecasting methods in business forecasting, which performs well in prediction and holds the ability of giving explanations for the results. In business failure prediction (BFP), the number of failed enterprises is relatively small, compared with the number of non-failed ones. However, the loss is huge when an enterprise fails. Therefore, it is necessary to develop methods (trained on imbalanced samples) which forecast well for this small proportion of failed enterprises and performs accurately on total accuracy meanwhile. Commonly used methods constructed on the assumption of balanced samples do not perform well in predicting minority samples on imbalanced samples consisting of the minority/failed enterprises and the majority/non-failed ones. This article develops a new method called clustering-based CBR (CBCBR), which integrates clustering analysis, an unsupervised process, with CBR, a supervised process, to enhance the efficiency of retrieving information from both minority and majority in CBR. In CBCBR, various case classes are firstly generated through hierarchical clustering inside stored experienced cases, and class centres are calculated out by integrating cases information in the same clustered class. When predicting the label of a target case, its nearest clustered case class is firstly retrieved by ranking similarities between the target case and each clustered case class centre. Then, nearest neighbours of the target case in the determined clustered case class are retrieved. Finally, labels of the nearest experienced cases are used in prediction. In the empirical experiment with two imbalanced samples from China, the performance of CBCBR was compared with the classical CBR, a support vector machine, a logistic regression and a multi-variant discriminate analysis. The results show that compared with the other four methods, CBCBR performed significantly better in terms of sensitivity for identifying the

  4. Early Indication of Decompensated Heart Failure in Patients on Home-Telemonitoring: A Comparison of Prediction Algorithms Based on Daily Weight and Noninvasive Transthoracic Bio-impedance

    PubMed Central

    Bonomi, Alberto G; Goode, Kevin M; Reiter, Harald; Habetha, Joerg; Amft, Oliver; Cleland, John GF

    2016-01-01

    Background Heart Failure (HF) is a common reason for hospitalization. Admissions might be prevented by early detection of and intervention for decompensation. Conventionally, changes in weight, a possible measure of fluid accumulation, have been used to detect deterioration. Transthoracic impedance may be a more sensitive and accurate measure of fluid accumulation. Objective In this study, we review previously proposed predictive algorithms using body weight and noninvasive transthoracic bio-impedance (NITTI) to predict HF decompensations. Methods We monitored 91 patients with chronic HF for an average of 10 months using a weight scale and a wearable bio-impedance vest. Three algorithms were tested using either simple rule-of-thumb differences (RoT), moving averages (MACD), or cumulative sums (CUSUM). Results Algorithms using NITTI in the 2 weeks preceding decompensation predicted events (P<.001); however, using weight alone did not. Cross-validation showed that NITTI improved sensitivity of all algorithms tested and that trend algorithms provided the best performance for either measurement (Weight-MACD: 33%, NITTI-CUSUM: 60%) in contrast to the simpler rules-of-thumb (Weight-RoT: 20%, NITTI-RoT: 33%) as proposed in HF guidelines. Conclusions NITTI measurements decrease before decompensations, and combined with trend algorithms, improve the detection of HF decompensation over current guideline rules; however, many alerts are not associated with clinically overt decompensation. PMID:26892844

  5. Predicting Stereoselective Disposition of Carvedilol in Adult and Pediatric Chronic Heart Failure Patients by Incorporating Pathophysiological Changes in Organ Blood Flows-A Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Approach.

    PubMed

    Rasool, Muhammad Fawad; Khalil, Feras; Läer, Stephanie

    2016-07-01

    Chronic heart failure (CHF) is a systemic low perfusion syndrome resulting from impairment in the pumping function of the heart. The decrease in blood supply to body organs can potentially affect the pharmacokinetics (PK) of the drugs being administered. Carvedilol is administered as a racemic mixture and undergoes extensive stereoselective first pass metabolism. For such a drug, the pathophysiological changes occurring in CHF can have a profound impact on PK, and thus the resulting pharmacodynamic response, of both enantiomers. The aim of the current work was to predict stereoselective disposition of carvedilol after incorporating the pathophysiological changes in CHF into a whole-body physiologically based PK model using Simcyp, and to scale that model to pediatric CHF patients on a physiologic basis to investigate whether the same changes in the adult model can also be adopted for children. The developed model has successfully described PK of carvedilol enantiomers in healthy adults and in patients after the incorporation of reduced organ blood flows, as seen by the visual predictive checks and the calculated observed/predicted ratios for all PK parameters of interest. In contrast to adults, pediatric patients up to 12 years of age were better described without the reductions in organ blood flow, whereas older pediatric patients were better described after incorporating organ blood flow reductions. These findings indicate that the incorporated blood flow reductions in the adult model cannot be directly adopted in pediatrics, at least for the young ones; however, to draw definite conclusions, more data are still needed. PMID:27068272

  6. Plasma neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin as a marker for the prediction of worsening renal function in children hospitalized for acute heart failure.

    PubMed

    Elsharawy, Sahar; Raslan, Lila; Morsy, Saed; Hassan, Basheir; Khalifa, Naglaa

    2016-01-01

    Acute heart failure (AHF) is frequently associated with worsening renal function in adult patients. Neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) serves as an early marker for acute renal tubular injury. To assess the role of plasma NGAL in predicting worsening renal function (WRF) in children with AHF, we studied 30 children hospitalized for AHF; children with history of chronic renal disease or on nephrotoxic drugs were excluded. Twenty age- and sex-matched healthy children were included in the study as a control group. Echocardiographic examination was performed on admission. Blood urea nitrogen (BUN), serum creatinine, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and plasma NGAL levels were measured on admission and 72 h later. Seventeen (56.6%) patients developed WRF within the three-day follow-up period. At presentation, plasma NGAL level was significantly elevated in children who developed WRF. Admission plasma NGAL level correlated with renal parameters (BUN, creatinine and eGFR) as well as with left ventricular systolic parameters (ejection fraction and fractional shortening). For prediction of WRF, admission plasma, NGAL level>27.5 μg/L had sensitivity and specificity of 90% and 68%, respectively. The area under the receiver-operator curve was higher for NGAL (0.869) than for BUN (0.569) or eGFR (0.684). We conclude that admission plasma NGAL level can predict WRF in children hospitalized for AHF. PMID:26787566

  7. Prediction of Short-Term Outcome in Acute Superior Vestibular Nerve Failure: Three-Dimensional Video-Head-Impulse Test and Caloric Irrigation

    PubMed Central

    Rambold, Holger A.

    2015-01-01

    This retrospective study examines acute unilateral vestibular failure (up to seven days after onset) with modern vestibular testing (caloric irrigation and video-head-impulse test, vHIT) in 54 patients in order to test if the short-term outcome of the patients depends on the lesion pattern defined by the two tests. Patients were grouped according to a pathological unilateral caloric weakness without a pathological vHIT: group I; additional a pathological vHIT of the lateral semicircular canal (SCC): group II; and an additional pathological vHIT of the anterior SCC: group III. Patients with involvement of the posterior SCC were less frequent and not included in the analysis. Basic parameters, such as age of the subjects, days after symptom onset, gender, side of the lesion, treatment, and dizziness handicap inventory, were not different in groups I to III. The frequency of pathological clinical findings and pathological quantified measurements increased from groups I to III. The outcome parameter “days spent in the hospital” was significantly higher in group III compared to group I. The analysis shows that differential vestibular testing predicts short-term outcome of the patients and might be in future important to treat and coach patients with vestibular failure. PMID:26649042

  8. Kidney Failure

    MedlinePlus

    ... if You Have Kidney Disease Kidney Failure Expand Dialysis Kidney Transplant Preparing for Kidney Failure Treatment Choosing Not to Treat with Dialysis or Transplant Paying for Kidney Failure Treatment Contact ...

  9. Life and failure mechanism prediction of eco-friendly P2O5-SnO2-B2O3 glass frits

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, Hyoung-Seuk; Choi, Duck-Kyun

    2013-09-01

    Glass frits are used widely in the VFD, PDP, LCD, and OLED displays, solar cells, and automobiles. It is essential for glass frits to exhibit material properties such as low melting temperatures and coefficient of thermal expansion close to glass to prevent thermal shock and to lower the thermal stress. Glass frit containing 60%-85% of PbO lowers the melting temperature. However, PbO causes environmental pollution. In this study, we developed P2O5-SnO2-B2O3 glass frits and carried out life tests on these systems. In addition, life tests were also carried out on Pb-containing glass frits (VFD) for comparison to predict the life of the P2O5-SnO2-B2O3 systems. Subsequently, the failure mechanisms of VFD and Pb-free P2O5-SnO2-B2O3 glass frits were analyzed.

  10. Alloantibody Responses After Renal Transplant Failure Can Be Better Predicted by Donor-Recipient HLA Amino Acid Sequence and Physicochemical Disparities Than Conventional HLA Matching.

    PubMed

    Kosmoliaptsis, V; Mallon, D H; Chen, Y; Bolton, E M; Bradley, J A; Taylor, C J

    2016-07-01

    We have assessed whether HLA immunogenicity as defined by differences in donor-recipient HLA amino-acid sequence (amino-acid mismatch score, AMS; and eplet mismatch score, EpMS) and physicochemical properties (electrostatic mismatch score, EMS) enables prediction of allosensitization to HLA, and also prediction of the risk of an individual donor-recipient HLA mismatch to induce donor-specific antibody (DSA). HLA antibody screening was undertaken using single-antigen beads in 131 kidney transplant recipients returning to the transplant waiting list following first graft failure. The effect of AMS, EpMS, and EMS on the development of allosensitization (calculated reaction frequency [cRF]) and DSA was determined. Multivariate analyses, adjusting for time on the waiting list, maintenance on immunosuppression after transplant failure, and graft nephrectomy, showed that AMS (odds ratio [OR]: 1.44 per 10 units, 95% CI: 1.02-2.10, p = 0.04) and EMS (OR: 1.27 per 10 units, 95% CI: 1.02-1.62, p = 0.04) were independently associated with the risk of developing sensitization to HLA (cRF > 15%). AMS, EpMS, and EMS were independently associated with the development of HLA-DR and HLA-DQ DSA, but only EMS correlated with the risk of HLA-A and -B DSA development. Differences in donor-recipient HLA amino-acid sequence and physicochemical properties enable better assessment of the risk of HLA-specific sensitization than conventional HLA matching. PMID:26755448

  11. Neural Network Prediction of Failure of Damaged Composite Pressure Vessels from Strain Field Data Acquired by a Computer Vision Method

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Russell, Samuel S.; Lansing, Matthew D.

    1997-01-01

    This effort used a new and novel method of acquiring strains called Sub-pixel Digital Video Image Correlation (SDVIC) on impact damaged Kevlar/epoxy filament wound pressure vessels during a proof test. To predict the burst pressure, the hoop strain field distribution around the impact location from three vessels was used to train a neural network. The network was then tested on additional pressure vessels. Several variations on the network were tried. The best results were obtained using a single hidden layer. SDVIC is a fill-field non-contact computer vision technique which provides in-plane deformation and strain data over a load differential. This method was used to determine hoop and axial displacements, hoop and axial linear strains, the in-plane shear strains and rotations in the regions surrounding impact sites in filament wound pressure vessels (FWPV) during proof loading by internal pressurization. The relationship between these deformation measurement values and the remaining life of the pressure vessels, however, requires a complex theoretical model or numerical simulation. Both of these techniques are time consuming and complicated. Previous results using neural network methods had been successful in predicting the burst pressure for graphite/epoxy pressure vessels based upon acoustic emission (AE) measurements in similar tests. The neural network associates the character of the AE amplitude distribution, which depends upon the extent of impact damage, with the burst pressure. Similarly, higher amounts of impact damage are theorized to cause a higher amount of strain concentration in the damage effected zone at a given pressure and result in lower burst pressures. This relationship suggests that a neural network might be able to find an empirical relationship between the SDVIC strain field data and the burst pressure, analogous to the AE method, with greater speed and simplicity than theoretical or finite element modeling. The process of testing SDVIC

  12. Micromechanics analysis of space simulated thermal stresses in composites. I - Theory and unidirectional laminates. II - Multidirectional laminates and failure predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bowles, David E.; Griffin, O. H., Jr.

    1991-01-01

    A micromechanics analysis is used to study the effects of constituent properties on thermally induced stresses in continuous fiber reinforced composites. A finite element formulation is described, and results are presented for unidirectional carbon/epoxy laminates. It is shown that significant stresses develop in composites exposed to thermal excursions typical of spacecraft operating environments and that the fiber thermoelastic properties have a minimal effect on the magnitude of these stresses. The finite element micromechanics analysis is then extended to the study of multidirectional laminates using a simple global/local formulation. Damage initiation predictions are compared with experimental data, and factors controlling the initiation of damage are identified. Ways of improving the durability of composites are discussed.

  13. Micromechanics analysis of space simulated thermal stresses in composites. I - Theory and unidirectional laminates. II - Multidirectional laminates and failure predictions

    SciTech Connect

    Bowles, D.E.; Griffin, O.H. Jr. Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg )

    1991-09-01

    A micromechanics analysis is used to study the effects of constituent properties on thermally induced stresses in continuous fiber reinforced composites. A finite element formulation is described, and results are presented for unidirectional carbon/epoxy laminates. It is shown that significant stresses develop in composites exposed to thermal excursions typical of spacecraft operating environments and that the fiber thermoelastic properties have a minimal effect on the magnitude of these stresses. The finite element micromechanics analysis is then extended to the study of multidirectional laminates using a simple global/local formulation. Damage initiation predictions are compared with experimental data, and factors controlling the initiation of damage are identified. Ways of improving the durability of composites are discussed. 31 refs.

  14. Coronary Sinus Biomarker Sampling Compared to Peripheral Venous Blood for Predicting Outcomes In Patients with Severe Heart Failure Undergoing Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy: The BIOCRT Study

    PubMed Central

    Truong, Quynh A.; Januzzi, James L.; Szymonifka, Jackie; Thai, Wai-ee; Wai, Bryan; Lavender, Zachary; Sharma, Umesh; Sandoval, Ryan M.; Grunau, Zachary S.; Basnet, Sandeep; Babatunde, Adefolakemi; Ajijola, Olujimi A.; Min, James K.; Singh, Jagmeet P.

    2014-01-01

    Background A significant minority of patients receiving cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) remain non-responsive to this intervention. Objective To determine whether coronary sinus (CS) or baseline peripheral venous (PV) levels of established and emerging heart failure (HF) biomarkers are predictive of CRT outcomes. Methods In 73 patients (age 68±12; 83% male; ejection fraction 27 7%) with CS and PV blood drawn simultaneously at the time of CRT implantation, we measured amino-terminal pro-B type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), galectin-3 (gal-3), and soluble (s)ST2 levels. NT-proBNP concentrations>2000 pg/mL, gal-3>25.9 ng/mL, and sST2>35 ng/mL were considered positive, based on established PV cutpoints for identifying “high risk” individuals with HF. CRT response was adjudicated by HF Clinical Composite Score. Major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) was defined as the composite endpoint of death, cardiac transplant, left ventricular assist device, and HF hospitalization at 2 years. Results NT-proBNP concentrations were 20% higher in the CS than periphery, while gal-3 and sST2 were 10% higher in periphery than CS (all p<0.001). There were 45% CRT non-responders at 6 months and 22% MACE. Triple positive CS values yielded the highest specificity of 95% for predicting CRT non-response. Consistently, CS strategies identified patients at higher risk for developing MACE, with over 11-fold adjusted increase for triple positive CS patients compared to triple negative patients (all p≤0.04). PV strategies were not predictive of MACE. Conclusions Our findings suggest that coronary sinus sampling of HF biomarkers may be better than peripheral venous blood levels for predicting CRT outcomes. Larger studies are needed to confirm our findings. PMID:25014756

  15. Analyses and design tool for the prediction of structural failure of current and future composite wind turbine blades

    SciTech Connect

    Fronk, T.H.; Gebert, G.A.; Jones, D.L.; Blotteaux, R.J.

    1995-09-01

    A computer code was developed which models the aeroelastic-structural response of arbitrary wind turbine blades undergoing gust loading. The code couples a three-dimensional, time-domain, unsteady aerodynamic analysis with a geometric, nonlinear, finite element model of a laminated composite structural blade to predict the response of wind turbine blades. The full aerodynamic loading is accounted for by rapidly tracking the unsteady, 3-D, vortex filament wake shed behind each blade of the turbine. The program also makes estimates of the nonlinear aerodynamic loading in the both the pre- and post-stall regimes. In order to make it an effective design tool, the program can accept arbitrary blade geometries including user specified airfoil sections, taper ratio, blade twist, number of blades, laminate stacking sequence, and mass and material properties. In coupling the aerodynamics with the structural model, estimates of large blade deflections and stresses can be made. The program has been compared with experimental results of the Storm Master Turbine and showed good agreement of both the aerodynamics and the structural performance. The code can be used as a design tool handling virtually any blade geometry and gust loading.

  16. Examining the potential for gender bias in the prediction of symptom validity test failure by MMPI-2 symptom validity scale scores.

    PubMed

    Lee, Tayla T C; Graham, John R; Sellbom, Martin; Gervais, Roger O

    2012-09-01

    Using a sample of individuals undergoing medico-legal evaluations (690 men, 519 women), the present study extended past research on potential gender biases for scores of the Symptom Validity (FBS) scale of the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory-2 by examining score- and item-level differences between men and women and determining the extent to which FBS scores were able to correctly identify men and women who were divided into credible responders (n = 837) and noncredible responders (n = 372) on the basis of performance on symptom validity tests. Results indicated that women had slightly higher raw FBS scores than men (d = .29), and significant differences between men and women in item endorsement were demonstrated for 14 FBS items. Step-down hierarchical logistic regression procedures indicated predictive bias (χ²Δ = 23.72, p < .001). Follow-up analyses indicated intercept bias (χ²Δ = 23.51, p < .001) but not slope bias (χ²Δ = 0.22, p = .64). However, using the test publisher's recommended FBS cutoff scores (Ben-Porath, Graham, & Tellegen, 2009), classification accuracies were similar for women and men (T > 80, h = -.02; T > 100, h = -.22, respectively). On the basis of these results, we conclude there is no evidence of clinically meaningful bias in predictions of symptom validity test failure made using FBS scores for men and women. PMID:22309000

  17. Failure to attain stretched penile length after intracavernosal injection of a vasodilator agent is predictive of veno-occlusive dysfunction on penile duplex Doppler ultrasonography.

    PubMed

    Yafi, F A; Libby, R P; McCaslin, I R; Sangkum, P; Sikka, S C; Hellstrom, W J G

    2015-09-01

    Penile duplex Doppler ultrasound (PDDU) assesses the etiology of erectile dysfunction. Peak systolic velocity (PSV), end-diastolic velocity (EDV), and resistive index (RI) are common PDDU parameters. We assessed whether stretched penile length (SPL) in the flaccid state and measured penile length at peak erection after intracavernosal injection (ICI) of a vasodilator during PDDU correlated with the etiology of erectile dysfunction. We performed a retrospective review of 93 patients who underwent PDDU for erectile dysfunction. Normal and stretched penile length were measured, both at a flaccid state prior to ICI and at peak erection during PDDU. Collected data included patient demographics, vascular, and anatomic parameters. The mean age was 52 years. SPL was equivalent to peak penile length after ICI in 60 patients (65%, group 1) and did not match in 33 (35%, group 2). There were no significant differences between the two groups in terms of flaccid, stretched, and post-ICI erect penile lengths, IIEF score, PSV, percent rigidity or tumescence, and vasodilator dose used. Patients in group 2 had less of a change in penile length from flaccid to erect state (36% vs. 44%, p = 0.02), higher EDV (12.0 vs. 8.5, p = 0.041), lower RI (0.6 vs. 1.0, p = 0.046), and more veno-occlusive dysfunction (82% vs. 53%, p = 0.001). On multivariate analysis, failure to reach maximum SPL at peak ICI erection (OR 2.255, CI 1.191-4.271, p = 0.0126), EDV (OR 1.281, CI 1.115-1.471, p < 0.001) and RI (OR 0.694, CI 0.573-0.723, p = 0.009) predicted veno-occlusive dysfunction. Failure to reach maximal SPL during PDDU using ICI with a vasodilator agent predicted veno-occlusive dysfunction, which is independent of both penile rigidity and tumescence. This measurement could serve as another diagnostic tool for predicting veno-occlusive dysfunction when PDDU is not readily available. Limitations include the subjective nature of penile measurements and different PGE1 doses used. PMID

  18. Usefulness of Doppler echocardiographic left ventricular diastolic function and peak exercise oxygen consumption to predict cardiovascular outcomes in patients with systolic heart failure (from HF-ACTION).

    PubMed

    Gardin, Julius M; Leifer, Eric S; Kitzman, Dalane W; Cohen, Gerald; Landzberg, Joel S; Cotts, William; Wolfel, Eugene E; Safford, Robert E; Bess, Renee L; Fleg, Jerome L

    2012-09-15

    Heart Failure: A Controlled Trial Investigating Outcomes of Exercise Training (HF-ACTION) was a multicenter, randomized controlled trial designed to examine the safety and efficacy of aerobic exercise training versus usual care in 2,331 patients with systolic heart failure (HF). In HF-ACTION patients with rest transthoracic echocardiographic measurements, the predictive value of 8 Doppler echocardiographic measurements-left ventricular (LV) diastolic dimension, mass, systolic (ejection fraction) and diastolic (mitral valve peak early diastolic/peak late diastolic [E/A] ratio, peak mitral valve early diastolic velocity/tissue Doppler peak early diastolic myocardial velocity [E/E'] ratio, and deceleration time) function, left atrial dimension, and mitral regurgitation severity-was examined for a primary end point of all-cause death or hospitalization and a secondary end point of cardiovascular disease death or HF hospitalization. Also compared was the prognostic value of echocardiographic variables versus peak oxygen consumption (Vo(2)). Mitral valve E/A and E/E' ratios were more powerful independent predictors of clinical end points than the LV ejection fraction but less powerful than peak Vo(2). In multivariate analyses for predicting the primary end point, adding E/A ratio to a basic demographic and clinical model increased the C-index from 0.61 to 0.62, compared with 0.64 after adding peak Vo(2). For the secondary end point, 6 echocardiographic variables, but not the LV ejection fraction or left atrial dimension, provided independent predictive power over the basic model. The addition of E/E' or E/A to the basic model increased the C-index from 0.70 to 0.72 and 0.73, respectively (all p values <0.0001). Simultaneously adding E/A ratio and peak Vo(2) to the basic model increased the C-index to 0.75 (p <0.0005). No echocardiographic variable was significantly related to the change from baseline to 3 months in exercise peak Vo(2). In conclusion, the addition of

  19. End-Tidal CO2 Tension Is Predictive of Effective Nocturnal Oxygen Therapy in Patients with Chronic Heart Failure and Central Sleep Apnea.

    PubMed

    Sugimura, Koichiro; Shinozaki, Tsuyoshi; Fukui, Shigefumi; Ogawa, Hiromasa; Shimokawa, Hiroaki

    2016-01-01

    Central sleep apnea (CSA) is characterized by recurring cycles of crescendo-decrescendo ventilation during sleep, and enhances sympathetic nerve activity. Thus CSA has a prognostic impact in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). Although nocturnal oxygen (O2) therapy decreases frequency of CSA and improves functional exercise capacity, it is also known that some non-responders to the therapy exist. We thus aimed to identify predictors of responders to nocturnal O2 therapy in CHF patients with CSA. In 12 CHF patients with CSA hospitalized at our department, sleep study was performed at 2 consecutive nights. Patients nasally inhaled O2 at either the first or second night in a randomized manner. To predict the percentage reduction in apnea-hypopnea index (%ΔAHI) in response to the nocturnal O2 therapy, we performed multiple regression analysis with a stepwise method with variables including age, brain-natriuretic peptide, circulation time, baseline AHI, hypercapnic ventilatory response and end-tidal carbon dioxide tension (PETCO2). Nocturnal O2 therapy significantly decreased AHI (from 32 ± 13 /h to 12 ± 10 /h, P < 0.0001). Among the possible predictors, PETCO2 was the only variable that is predictive of % changes in AHI. Receiver operating characteristics analysis determined 4.25% as the optimal cutoff PETCO2 level to identify responder to nocturnal O2 therapy (> 50% reduction of AHI), with 88.9% of sensitivity and 66.7% of specificity. In conclusion, PETCO2 is useful to predict the efficacy of O2 therapy in CHF patients with CSA, providing important information to the current nocturnal O2 therapy. PMID:27169493

  20. A model to predict 3-month mortality risk of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure using artificial neural network.

    PubMed

    Zheng, M-H; Shi, K-Q; Lin, X-F; Xiao, D-D; Chen, L-L; Liu, W-Y; Fan, Y-C; Chen, Y-P

    2013-04-01

    Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scoring was initiated using traditional statistical technique by assuming a linear relationship between clinical features, but most phenomena in a clinical situation are not linearly related. The aim of this study was to predict 3-month mortality risk of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF) on an individual patient level using an artificial neural network (ANN) system. The ANN model was built using data from 402 consecutive patients with ACHBLF. It was trained to predict 3-month mortality by the data of 280 patients and validated by the remaining 122 patients. The area under the curve of receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) was calculated for ANN and MELD-based scoring systems. The following variables age (P < 0.001), prothrombin activity (P < 0.001), serum sodium (P < 0.001), total bilirubin (P = 0.015), hepatitis B e antigen positivity rate (P < 0.001) and haemoglobin (P < 0.001) were significantly related to the prognosis of ACHBLF and were selected to build the ANN. The ANN performed significantly better than MELD-based scoring systems both in the training cohort (AUROC = 0.869 vs 0.667, 0.591, 0.643, 0.571 and 0.577; P < 0.001, respectively) and in the validation cohort (AUROC = 0.765 vs 0.599, 0.563, 0.601, 0.521 and 0.540; P ≤ 0.006, respectively). Thus, the ANN model was shown to be more accurate in predicting 3-month mortality of ACHBLF than MELD-based scoring systems. PMID:23490369

  1. Establishment and validation of ALPH-Q score to predict mortality risk in patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure: a prospective cohort study.

    PubMed

    Wu, Sheng-Jie; Yan, Hua-Dong; Zheng, Zai-Xing; Shi, Ke-Qing; Wu, Fa-Ling; Xie, Yao-Yao; Fan, Yu-Chen; Ye, Bo-Zhi; Huang, Wei-Jian; Chen, Yong-Ping; Zheng, Ming-Hua

    2015-01-01

    Currently, there are no robust models for predicting the outcome of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF). We aimed to establish and validate a new prognostic scoring system, named ALPH-Q, that integrates electrocardiography parameters that may be used to predict short-term mortality of patients with ACHBLF. Two hundred fourteen patients were included in this study. The APLH-Q score was constructed by Cox proportional hazard regression analysis and was validated in an independent patient cohort. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve was used to compare the performance of different models, including APLH-Q, Child-Pugh score (CPS), model of end-stage liver disease (MELD), and a previously reported logistic regression model (LRM). The APLH-Q score was constructed with 5 independent risk factors, including age (HR = 1.034, 95% CI: 1.007-1.061), liver cirrhosis (HR = 2.753, 95% CI: 1.366-5.548), prothrombin time (HR = 1.031, 95% CI: 1.002-1.062), hepatic encephalopathy (HR = 2.703, 95% CI: 1.630-4.480), and QTc (HR = 1.008, 95% CI: 1.001-1.016). The performance of the ALPH-Q score was significantly better than that of MELD and CPS in both the training (0.896 vs 0.712, 0.896 vs 0.738, respectively, both P < 0.05) and validation cohorts (0.837 vs 0.689, 0.837 vs 0.585, respectively, both P < 0.05). Compared with LRM, APLH-Q also showed a better performance (0.896 vs 0.825, 0.837 vs 0.818, respectively).We have developed a novel APLH-Q score with greater performance than CPS, MELD, and LRM for predicting short-term mortality of patients with ACHBLF. PMID:25590846

  2. Interval to Biochemical Failure Predicts Clinical Outcomes in Patients With High-Risk Prostate Cancer Treated by Combined-Modality Radiation Therapy

    SciTech Connect

    Shilkrut, Mark; McLaughlin, P. William; Merrick, Gregory S.; Vainshtein, Jeffrey M.; Feng, Felix Y.; Hamstra, Daniel A.

    2013-07-15

    Purpose: To validate the prognostic value of interval to biochemical failure (IBF) in patients with high-risk prostate cancer (HiRPCa) treated with combined-modality radiation therapy (CMRT) with or without androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). Methods and Materials: We conducted a retrospective review of HiRPCa (prostate-specific antigen >20 ng/mL, Gleason score [GS] 8-10, or clinical T stage T3-T4) treated with either dose-escalated external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) or CMRT. Interval to biochemical failure was classified as ≤18 or >18 months from the end of all therapy to the date of biochemical failure (BF). Kaplan-Meier methods and Cox proportional hazards regression were used to evaluate the prognostic value of IBF ≤18 months for distant metastasis (DM) and prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM). Results: Of 958 patients with a median follow-up of 63.2 months, 175 patients experienced BF. In those with BF, there were no differences in pretreatment clinical characteristics between the EBRT and CMRT groups, except for a higher proportion of patients with GS 8-10 in the CMRT group (70% vs 52%, P=.02). Median IBF after all therapy was 24.0 months (interquartile range 9.6-46.0) in the EBRT group and 18.9 months (interquartile range 9.2-34.5) in the CMRT group (P=.055). On univariate analysis, IBF ≤18 months was associated with increased risk of DM and PCSM in the entire cohort and the individual EBRT and CMRT groups. On multivariate analysis, only GS 9-10 and IBF ≤18 months, but not the radiation therapy regimen or ADT use, predicted DM (hazard ratio [HR] 3.7, P<.01, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.4-10.3 for GS 9-10; HR 3.9, P<.0001, 95% CI 2.4-6.5 for IBF ≤18 months) and PCSM (HR 14.8, P<.009, 95% CI 2.0-110 for GS 9-10; HR 4.4, P<.0001, 95% CI 2.4-8.1 for IBF ≤18 months). Conclusions: Short IBF was highly prognostic for higher DM and PCSM in patients with HiRPCa. The prognostic value of IBF for DM and PCSM was not affected by the radiation

  3. Predictive value of cell-surface markers in infections in critically ill patients: protocol for an observational study (ImmuNe FailurE in Critical Therapy (INFECT) Study)

    PubMed Central

    Shankar-Hari, Manu; Weir, Christopher J; Rennie, Jillian; Antonelli, Jean; Rossi, Adriano G; Warner, Noel; Keenan, Jim; Wang, Alice; Brown, K Alun; Lewis, Sion; Mare, Tracey; Simpson, A John; Hulme, Gillian; Dimmick, Ian; Walsh, Timothy S

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Critically ill patients are at high risk of nosocomial infections, with between 20% and 40% of patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) acquiring infections. These infections result in increased antibiotic use, and are associated with morbidity and mortality. Although critical illness is classically associated with hyperinflammation, the high rates of nosocomial infection argue for an importance of effect of impaired immunity. Our group recently demonstrated that a combination of 3 measures of immune cell function (namely neutrophil CD88, monocyte HLA-DR and % regulatory T cells) identified a patient population with a 2.4–5-fold greater risk for susceptibility to nosocomial infections. Methods and analysis This is a prospective, observational study to determine whether previously identified markers of susceptibility to nosocomial infection can be validated in a multicentre population, as well as testing several novel markers which may improve the risk of nosocomial infection prediction. Blood samples from critically ill patients (those admitted to the ICU for at least 48 hours and requiring mechanical ventilation alone or support of 2 or more organ systems) are taken and undergo whole blood staining for a range of immune cell surface markers. These samples undergo analysis on a standardised flow cytometry platform. Patients are followed up to determine whether they develop nosocomial infection. Infections need to meet strict prespecified criteria based on international guidelines; where these criteria are not met, an adjudication panel of experienced intensivists is asked to rule on the presence of infection. Secondary outcomes will be death from severe infection (sepsis) and change in organ failure. Ethics and dissemination Ethical approval including the involvement of adults lacking capacity has been obtained from respective English and Scottish Ethics Committees. Results will be disseminated through presentations at scientific meetings

  4. A three-step approach for the derivation and validation of high-performing predictive models using an operational dataset: congestive heart failure readmission case study

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background The aim of this study was to propose an analytical approach to develop high-performing predictive models for congestive heart failure (CHF) readmission using an operational dataset with incomplete records and changing data over time. Methods Our analytical approach involves three steps: pre-processing, systematic model development, and risk factor analysis. For pre-processing, variables that were absent in >50% of records were removed. Moreover, the dataset was divided into a validation dataset and derivation datasets which were separated into three temporal subsets based on changes to the data over time. For systematic model development, using the different temporal datasets and the remaining explanatory variables, the models were developed by combining the use of various (i) statistical analyses to explore the relationships between the validation and the derivation datasets; (ii) adjustment methods for handling missing values; (iii) classifiers; (iv) feature selection methods; and (iv) discretization methods. We then selected the best derivation dataset and the models with the highest predictive performance. For risk factor analysis, factors in the highest-performing predictive models were analyzed and ranked using (i) statistical analyses of the best derivation dataset, (ii) feature rankers, and (iii) a newly developed algorithm to categorize risk factors as being strong, regular, or weak. Results The analysis dataset consisted of 2,787 CHF hospitalizations at University of Utah Health Care from January 2003 to June 2013. In this study, we used the complete-case analysis and mean-based imputation adjustment methods; the wrapper subset feature selection method; and four ranking strategies based on information gain, gain ratio, symmetrical uncertainty, and wrapper subset feature evaluators. The best-performing models resulted from the use of a complete-case analysis derivation dataset combined with the Class-Attribute Contingency Coefficient

  5. Detecting servo failures with software

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lew, D.; Quam, R.

    1979-01-01

    Program detects hardware failure in servosystems by comparing actual servo valve position with predictions of software model. In addition, system will also pick up most computer input/output failures. Process presents faster and more reliable results than previous failure detection methods.

  6. A Single Quantifiable Viral Load Is Predictive of Virological Failure in Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)-Infected Patients on Combination Antiretroviral Therapy: The Austrian HIV Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Leierer, Gisela; Grabmeier-Pfistershammer, Katharina; Steuer, Andrea; Sarcletti, Mario; Geit, Maria; Haas, Bernhard; Taylor, Ninon; Kanatschnig, Manfred; Rappold, Michaela; Ledergerber, Bruno; Zangerle, Robert

    2016-01-01

    Background. Viral loads (VLs) detectable at low levels are not uncommon in patients on combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). We investigated whether a single quantifiable VL predicted virological failure (VF). Methods. We analyzed patients receiving standard regimens with at least 1 VL measurement below the limit of quantification (BLQ) in their treatment history. The first VL measurement after 6 months of unmodified cART served as baseline VL for the subsequent analyses of the time to reach single VL levels of ≥200, ≥400, and ≥1000 copies/mL. Roche TaqMan 2.0 was used to quantify human immunodeficiency virus-1 ribonucleic acid. Factors associated with VF were determined by Cox proportional hazards models. Results. Of 1614 patients included in the study, 68, 44, and 34 experienced VF ≥200, ≥400, and ≥1000 copies/mL, respectively. In multivariable analyses, compared with patients who were BLQ, a detectable VL ≤ 50 and VL 51–199 copies/mL predicted VF ≥ 200 copies/mL (hazards ratio [HR] = 2.19, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.06–4.55 and HR = 4.21, 95% CI = 2.15–8.22, respectively). In those with VL 51–199 copies/mL, a trend for an increased risk of VF ≥400 and VF ≥1000 copies/mL could be found (HR = 2.13, 95% CI = 0.84–5.39 and HR = 2.52, 95% CI = 0.96–6.60, respectively). Conclusions. These findings support closer monitoring and adherence counseling for patients with a single measurement of quantifiable VL <200 copies/mL. PMID:27419163

  7. The comparison of stroke volume variation with central venous pressure in predicting fluid responsiveness in septic patients with acute circulatory failure

    PubMed Central

    Angappan, Santhalakshmi; Parida, Satyen; Vasudevan, Arumugam; Badhe, Ashok Shankar

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: The present study was designed to investigate the efficacy of stroke volume variation (SVV) in predicting fluid responsiveness and compare it to traditional measures of volume status assessment like central venous pressure (CVP). Methods: Forty-five mechanically ventilated patients in sepsis with acute circulatory failure. Patients were not included when they had atrial fibrillation, other severe arrhythmias, permanent pacemaker, or needed mechanical cardiac support. Furthermore, excluded were patients with hypoxemia and a CVP >12. Patients received volume expansion in the form of 500 ml of 6% hydroxyethyl starch. Results: The volume expansion-induced increase in  cardiac index (CI) was >15% in 29 patients (labeled responders) and <15% in 16 patients (labeled nonresponders). Before volume expansion, SVV was higher in responders than in nonresponders. Receiver operating characteristic curves analysis showed that SVV was a more accurate indicator of fluid responsiveness than CVP. Before volume expansion, an SVV value of 13% allowed discrimination between responders and nonresponders with a sensitivity of 78% and a specificity of 89%. Volume expansion-induced changes in CI weakly and positively correlated with SVV before volume expansion. Volume expansion decreased SVV from 18.86 ± 4.35 to 7.57 ± 1.80 and volume expansion-induced changes in SVV moderately correlated with volume expansion-induced changes in CI. Conclusions: When predicting fluid responsiveness in mechanically ventilated patients in septic shock, SVV is more effective than CVP. Nevertheless, the overall correlation of baseline SVV with increases in CI remains poor. Trends in SVV, as reflected by decreases with volume replacement, seem to correlate much better with increases in CI. PMID:26180432

  8. Respiratory Failure

    MedlinePlus

    Respiratory failure happens when not enough oxygen passes from your lungs into your blood. Your body's organs, such ... brain, need oxygen-rich blood to work well. Respiratory failure also can happen if your lungs can't ...

  9. Kidney Failure

    MedlinePlus

    ... enough red blood cells. This is called kidney failure. If your kidneys fail, you need treatment to ... providers, family, and friends, most people with kidney failure can lead full and active lives. NIH: National ...

  10. Left ventricular markers of global dyssynchrony predict limited exercise capacity in heart failure, but not in patients with preserved ejection fraction

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background The aim of this study was to prospectively examine echocardiographic parameters that correlate and predict functional capacity assessed by 6 min walk test (6-MWT) in patients with heart failure (HF), irrespective of ejection fraction (EF). Methods In 147 HF patients (mean age 61 ± 11 years, 50.3% male), a 6-MWT and an echo-Doppler study were performed in the same day. Global LV dyssynchrony was indirectly assessed by total isovolumic time - t-IVT [in s/min; calculated as: 60 – (total ejection time + total filling time)], and Tei index (t-IVT/ejection time). Patients were divided into two groups based on the 6-MWT distance (Group I: ≤300 m and Group II: >300 m), and also in two groups according to EF (Group A: LVEF ≥ 45% and Group B: LVEF < 45%). Results In the cohort of patients as a whole, the 6-MWT correlated with t-IVT (r = −0.49, p < 0.001) and Tei index (r = −0.43, p < 0.001) but not with any of the other clinical or echocardiographic parameters. Group I had lower hemoglobin level (p = 0.02), lower EF (p = 0.003), larger left atrium (p = 0.02), thicker interventricular septum (p = 0.02), lower A wave (p = 0.01) and lateral wall late diastolic myocardial velocity a’ (p = 0.047), longer isovolumic relaxation time (r = 0.003) and longer t-IVT (p = 0.03), compared with Group II. In the patients cohort as a whole, only t-IVT ratio [1.257 (1.071-1.476), p = 0.005], LV EF [0.947 (0.903-0.993), p = 0.02], and E/A ratio [0.553 (0.315-0.972), p = 0.04] independently predicted poor 6-MWT performance (<300 m) in multivariate analysis. None of the echocardiographic measurements predicted exercise tolerance in HFpEF. Conclusion In patients with HF, the limited exercise capacity, assessed by 6-MWT, is related mostly to severity of global LV dyssynchrony, more than EF or raised filling pressures. The lack of exercise predictors in HFpEF reflects its multifactorial

  11. Establishment and Validation of ALPH-Q Score to Predict Mortality Risk in Patients With Acute-on-Chronic Hepatitis B Liver Failure

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Sheng-Jie; Yan, Hua-Dong; Zheng, Zai-Xing; Shi, Ke-Qing; Wu, Fa-Ling; Xie, Yao-Yao; Fan, Yu-Chen; Ye, Bo-Zhi; Huang, Wei-Jian; Chen, Yong-Ping; Zheng, Ming-Hua

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Currently, there are no robust models for predicting the outcome of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF). We aimed to establish and validate a new prognostic scoring system, named ALPH-Q, that integrates electrocardiography parameters that may be used to predict short-term mortality of patients with ACHBLF. Two hundred fourteen patients were included in this study. The APLH-Q score was constructed by Cox proportional hazard regression analysis and was validated in an independent patient cohort. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve was used to compare the performance of different models, including APLH-Q, Child–Pugh score (CPS), model of end-stage liver disease (MELD), and a previously reported logistic regression model (LRM). The APLH-Q score was constructed with 5 independent risk factors, including age (HR = 1.034, 95% CI: 1.007–1.061), liver cirrhosis (HR = 2.753, 95% CI: 1.366–5.548), prothrombin time (HR = 1.031, 95% CI: 1.002–1.062), hepatic encephalopathy (HR = 2.703, 95% CI: 1.630–4.480), and QTc (HR = 1.008, 95% CI: 1.001–1.016). The performance of the ALPH-Q score was significantly better than that of MELD and CPS in both the training (0.896 vs 0.712, 0.896 vs 0.738, respectively, both P < 0.05) and validation cohorts (0.837 vs 0.689, 0.837 vs 0.585, respectively, both P < 0.05). Compared with LRM, APLH-Q also showed a better performance (0.896 vs 0.825, 0.837 vs 0.818, respectively). We have developed a novel APLH-Q score with greater performance than CPS, MELD, and LRM for predicting short-term mortality of patients with ACHBLF. PMID:25590846

  12. Usefulness of Doppler Echocardiographic Left Ventricular Diastolic Function and Peak Exercise Oxygen Consumption to Predict Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients with Systolic Heart Failure (From HF-ACTION)

    PubMed Central

    Gardin, Julius M.; Leifer, Eric S.; Kitzman, Dalane W.; Cohen, Gerald; Landzberg, Joel S.; Cotts, William; Wolfel, Eugene E.; Safford, Robert E.; Bess, Renee L.; Fleg, Jerome L.

    2012-01-01

    HF-ACTION was a multicenter, randomized, controlled trial designed to examine the safety and efficacy of aerobic exercise training versus usual care in 2,331 patients with systolic heart failure (HF). In HF-ACTION patients with resting transthoracic echocardiographic (echo) measurements, we examined predictive value of 8 echo-Doppler measurements—left ventricular (LV) diastolic dimension, mass, systolic (ejection fraction) and diastolic function (mitral valve [MV] peak early diastolic-to-peak late diastolic [E/A], peak MV early diastolic velocity-to-tissue Doppler peak early diastolic myocardial velocity [E/E’] ratios, and deceleration time), left atrial (LA) dimension, and mitral regurgitation severity (MR)—for primary endpoint of all-cause death or hospitalization and secondary endpoint of cardiovascular disease (CVD) death or HF hospitalization. We also compared prognostic value of echo variables versus peak oxygen consumption (VO2). MV E/A and E/E’ ratios were more powerful independent predictors of clinical endpoints than was LV ejection fraction (LVEF), but less powerful than peak VO2. In multivariate analyses for predicting primary endpoint, adding E/A ratio to a basic demographic/clinical model increased C-index from 0.61 to 0.62, compared with 0.64 after adding peak VO2. For secondary endpoint, 6 echo variables, but not LVEF or LA dimension, provided independent predictive power over basic model. Addition of E/E’ or E/A to the basic model increased C-index from 0.70 to 0.72 and 0.73, respectively (all p <0.0001). Simultaneously adding E/A and peak VO2 to basic model increased C-index to 0.75 (p <0.0005). No echo variable was significantly related to 0-to-3 month change in exercise peak VO2. In conclusion, addition of echo LV diastolic function variables improves prognostic value of a basic demographic/clinical model for CVD outcomes. PMID:22683041

  13. Failure of Viral Shells

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klug, William S.; Bruinsma, Robijn F.; Michel, Jean-Philippe; Knobler, Charles M.; Ivanovska, Irena L.; Schmidt, Christoph F.; Wuite, Gijs J. L.

    2006-12-01

    We report a combined theoretical and experimental study of the structural failure of viral shells under mechanical stress. We find that discontinuities in the force-indentation curve associated with failure should appear when the so-called Föppl von Kármán (FvK) number exceeds a critical value. A nanoindentation study of a viral shell subject to a soft-mode instability, where the stiffness of the shell decreases with increasing pH, confirms the predicted onset of failure as a function of the FvK number.

  14. Respiratory variations of inferior vena cava diameter to predict fluid responsiveness in spontaneously breathing patients with acute circulatory failure: need for a cautious use

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Introduction To investigate whether respiratory variation of inferior vena cava diameter (cIVC) predict fluid responsiveness in spontaneously breathing patients with acute circulatory failure (ACF). Methods Forty patients with ACF and spontaneous breathing were included. Response to fluid challenge was defined as a 15% increase of subaortic velocity time index (VTI) measured by transthoracic echocardiography. Inferior vena cava diameters were recorded by a subcostal view using M Mode. The cIVC was calculated as follows: (Dmax - Dmin/Dmax) × 100 and then receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were generated for cIVC, baseline VTI, E wave velocity, E/A and E/Ea ratios. Results Among 40 included patients, 20 (50%) were responders (R). The causes of ACF were sepsis (n = 24), haemorrhage (n = 11), and dehydration (n = 5). The area under the ROC curve for cIVC was 0.77 (95% CI: 0.60-0.88). The best cutoff value was 40% (Se = 70%, Sp = 80%). The AUC of the ROC curves for baseline E wave velocity, VTI, E/A ratio, E/Ea ratio were 0.83 (95% CI: 0.68-0.93), 0.78 (95% CI: 0.61-0.88), 0.76 (95% CI: 0.59-0.89), 0.58 (95% CI: 0.41-0.75), respectively. The differences between AUC the ROC curves for cIVC and baseline E wave velocity, baseline VTI, baseline E/A ratio, and baseline E/Ea ratio were not statistically different (p = 0.46, p = 0.99, p = 1.00, p = 0.26, respectively). Conclusion In spontaneously breathing patients with ACF, high cIVC values (>40%) are usually associated with fluid responsiveness while low values (< 40%) do not exclude fluid responsiveness. PMID:23043910

  15. Do patterns of mental healthcare predict treatment failure in young people with schizophrenia? Evidence from an Italian population-based cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Corrao, Giovanni; Soranna, Davide; Merlino, Luca; Monzani, Emiliano; Viganò, Caterina; Lora, Antonio

    2015-01-01

    Objective Little is known about the practice of predicting community-based care effectiveness of patients affected by schizophrenic disorders. We assessed predictors of treatment failure in a large sample of young people affected by schizophrenia. Methods A cohort of 556 patients aged 18–35 years who were originally diagnosed with schizophrenia during 2005–2009 in a Mental Health Service (MHS) of the Italian Lombardy Region was identified. Intensity of mental healthcare received during the first year after index visit (exposure) was measured by patients’ regularity in MHS attendance and the length of time covered with antipsychotic drug therapy. Patients were followed from index visit until 2012 for identifying hospital admission for mental disorder (outcome). A proportional hazards model was fitted to estimate the HR and 95% CIs for the exposure-outcome association, after adjusting for several covariates. A set of sensitivity analyses were performed in order to account for sources of systematic uncertainty. Results During follow-up, 144 cohort members experienced the outcome. Compared with patients on low coverage with antipsychotic drugs (≤4 months), those on intermediate (5–8 months) and high (≥9 months) coverage, had HRs (95% CI) of 0.94 (0.64 to 1.40) and 0.69 (0.48 to 0.98), respectively. There was no evidence that regular attendance at the MHS affected the outcome. Conclusions Patients in the early phase of schizophrenia and their families should be cautioned about the possible consequences of poor antipsychotic adherence. Physicians and decision makers should increase their contribution towards improving mental healthcare. PMID:26041489

  16. Predicting survival in heart failure case and control subjects by use of fully automated methods for deriving nonlinear and conventional indices of heart rate dynamics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ho, K. K.; Moody, G. B.; Peng, C. K.; Mietus, J. E.; Larson, M. G.; Levy, D.; Goldberger, A. L.

    1997-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Despite much recent interest in quantification of heart rate variability (HRV), the prognostic value of conventional measures of HRV and of newer indices based on nonlinear dynamics is not universally accepted. METHODS AND RESULTS: We have designed algorithms for analyzing ambulatory ECG recordings and measuring HRV without human intervention, using robust methods for obtaining time-domain measures (mean and SD of heart rate), frequency-domain measures (power in the bands of 0.001 to 0.01 Hz [VLF], 0.01 to 0.15 Hz [LF], and 0.15 to 0.5 Hz [HF] and total spectral power [TP] over all three of these bands), and measures based on nonlinear dynamics (approximate entropy [ApEn], a measure of complexity, and detrended fluctuation analysis [DFA], a measure of long-term correlations). The study population consisted of chronic congestive heart failure (CHF) case patients and sex- and age-matched control subjects in the Framingham Heart Study. After exclusion of technically inadequate studies and those with atrial fibrillation, we used these algorithms to study HRV in 2-hour ambulatory ECG recordings of 69 participants (mean age, 71.7+/-8.1 years). By use of separate Cox proportional-hazards models, the conventional measures SD (P<.01), LF (P<.01), VLF (P<.05), and TP (P<.01) and the nonlinear measure DFA (P<.05) were predictors of survival over a mean follow-up period of 1.9 years; other measures, including ApEn (P>.3), were not. In multivariable models, DFA was of borderline predictive significance (P=.06) after adjustment for the diagnosis of CHF and SD. CONCLUSIONS: These results demonstrate that HRV analysis of ambulatory ECG recordings based on fully automated methods can have prognostic value in a population-based study and that nonlinear HRV indices may contribute prognostic value to complement traditional HRV measures.

  17. Combination of liver biopsy with MELD-XI scores for post-transplant outcome prediction in patients with advanced heart failure and suspected liver dysfunction

    PubMed Central

    Farr, Maryjane; Mitchell, James; Lippel, Matthew; Kato, Tomoko S.; Jin, Zhezhen; Ippolito, Paul; Dove, Lorna; Jorde, Ulrich P.; Takayama, Hiroo; Emond, Jean; Naka, Yoshifumi; Mancini, Donna; Lefkowitch, Jay H.; Schulze, P. Christian

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND Functional and structural liver abnormalities may be found in patients with advanced heart failure (HF). The Model of End-Stage Liver Disease Excluding INR (MELD-XI) score allows functional risk stratification of HF patients on and off anti-coagulation awaiting heart transplantation (HTx), but these scores may improve or worsen depending on bridging therapies and during time on the waiting list. Liver biopsy is sometimes performed to assess for severity of fibrosis. Uncertainty remains whether biopsy in addition to MELD-XI improves prediction of adverse outcomes in patients evaluated for HTx. METHODS Sixty-eight patients suspected of advanced liver disease underwent liver biopsy as part of their HTx evaluation. A liver risk score (fibrosis-on-biopsy + 1) × MELD-XI was generated for each patient. RESULTS Fifty-two patients were listed, of whom 14 had mechanical circulatory support (MCS). Thirty-six patients underwent transplantation and 27 patients survived ≥1 year post-HTx (74%, as compared with 88% average 1-year survival in HTx patients without suspected liver disease; p < 0.01). Survivors had a lower liver risk score at evaluation for HTx (31.0 ± 20.4 vs 65.2 ± 28.6, p < 0.01). A cut-point of 45 for liver risk score was identified by receiver-operating-characteristic (ROC) analysis. In the analysis using Cox proportional hazards models, a liver risk score ≥45 at evaluation for HTx was associated with greater risk of death at 1 year post-HTx compared with a score of <45 in both univariable (HR 3.94, 95% CI 1.77–8.79, p < 0.001) and multivariable (HR 4.35, 95% CI 1.77–8.79, p < 0.001) analyses. Patients who died <1 year post-HTx had an increased frequency of acute graft dysfunction (44.4% vs 3.7%, p = 0.009), longer ventilation times (55.6% vs 11.1%, p = 0.013) and severe bleeding events (44.4% vs 11.1%, p = 0.049). The liver risk score at evaluation for HTx also predicted 1-year mortality after HTx listing (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS Patients

  18. A Thermodynamically-Based Mesh Objective Work Potential Theory for Predicting Intralaminar Progressive Damage and Failure in Fiber-Reinforced Laminates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pineda, Evan J.; Waas, Anthony M.

    2012-01-01

    A thermodynamically-based work potential theory for modeling progressive damage and failure in fiber-reinforced laminates is presented. The current, multiple-internal state variable (ISV) formulation, enhanced Schapery theory (EST), utilizes separate ISVs for modeling the effects of damage and failure. Damage is considered to be the effect of any structural changes in a material that manifest as pre-peak non-linearity in the stress versus strain response. Conversely, failure is taken to be the effect of the evolution of any mechanisms that results in post-peak strain softening. It is assumed that matrix microdamage is the dominant damage mechanism in continuous fiber-reinforced polymer matrix laminates, and its evolution is controlled with a single ISV. Three additional ISVs are introduced to account for failure due to mode I transverse cracking, mode II transverse cracking, and mode I axial failure. Typically, failure evolution (i.e., post-peak strain softening) results in pathologically mesh dependent solutions within a finite element method (FEM) setting. Therefore, consistent character element lengths are introduced into the formulation of the evolution of the three failure ISVs. Using the stationarity of the total work potential with respect to each ISV, a set of thermodynamically consistent evolution equations for the ISVs is derived. The theory is implemented into commercial FEM software. Objectivity of total energy dissipated during the failure process, with regards to refinements in the FEM mesh, is demonstrated. The model is also verified against experimental results from two laminated, T800/3900-2 panels containing a central notch and different fiber-orientation stacking sequences. Global load versus displacement, global load versus local strain gage data, and macroscopic failure paths obtained from the models are compared to the experiments.

  19. Investigating the Impacts of Preoperative Steroid Treatment on Tumor Necrosis Factor-Alpha and Duration of Extubation Time underwent Ventricular Septal Defect Surgery

    PubMed Central

    Poyrazoğlu, H. Hakan; Duman, Zeynel; Demir, Şerafettin; Avşar, M. Kemal; Atalay, Atakan; Çiftçi, Bahattin; Bayraktar, İhsan; Tor, Funda

    2016-01-01

    Background: Cardiopulmonary bypass is known to cause inflammatory events. Inflammation occurs due to many known important biological processes. Numerous mechanisms are known to be responsible for the development of inflammatory processes. Currently, there are many defined mediators as a tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) playing an active role in this process. Aims: This research was to investigate the effects of pre-operative steroid use on inflammatory mediator TNF-α and on time to extubation postoperatively in ventricular septal defect patients undergoing cardiopulmonary bypass surgery. Study Design: Controlled clinical study. Methods: This study included 30 patients. These patients were assigned into two groups, each containing 15 patients. 5 micrograms/kg methylprednisolone was injected intravenously 2 hours before the surgery to Group I, whereas there was no application to the patients in Group II. TNF-α (pg/mL) level was measured in arterial blood samples obtained at four periods including: the preoperative period (Pre TNF); at the 5th minute of cross-clamping (Per TNF); 2 hours after termination of cardiopulmonary bypass (Post TNF); and at the postoperative 24th hours in cardiovascular surgery intensive care unit (Post 24 h TNF). Results: The mean cross-clamp time was 66±40 and 55±27 minutes in Group I and Group II respectively. No significant difference was found between the groups in terms of cross-clamp time (p>0.05). The mean time to extubation was 6.1±2.3 hours in Group I and 10.6±3.4 hours in Group II. Group I extubation time was significantly shorter than Group II. Group I TNF-α levels at Post TNF and Post24h TNF was lower than Group II. These differences are also statistically significant (p<0.05). Conclusion: There is a strong indication that preoperative steroid treatment reduced the TNF-α level together with shortens duration of postoperative intubation and positively contributes to extubation in ventricular septal defect patients operated

  20. Risk Analysis and Prediction of Floor Failure Mechanisms at Longwall Face in Parvadeh-I Coal Mine using Rock Engineering System (RES)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aghababaei, Sajjad; Saeedi, Gholamreza; Jalalifar, Hossein

    2016-05-01

    The floor failure at longwall face decreases productivity and safety, increases operation costs, and causes other serious problems. In Parvadeh-I coal mine, the timber is used to prevent the puncture of powered support base into the floor. In this paper, a rock engineering system (RES)-based model is presented to evaluate the risk of floor failure mechanisms at the longwall face of E 2 and W 1 panels. The presented model is used to determine the most probable floor failure mechanism, effective factors, damaged regions and remedial actions. From the analyzed results, it is found that soft floor failure is dominant in the floor failure mechanism at Parvadeh-I coal mine. The average of vulnerability index (VI) for soft, buckling and compressive floor failure mechanisms was estimated equal to 52, 43 and 30 for both panels, respectively. By determining the critical VI for soft floor failure mechanism equal to 54, the percentage of regions with VIs beyond the critical VI in E 2 and W 1 panels is equal to 65.5 and 30, respectively. The percentage of damaged regions showed that the excess amount of used timber to prevent the puncture of weak floor below the powered support base is equal to 4,180,739 kg. RES outputs and analyzed results showed that setting and yielding load of powered supports, length of face, existent water at face, geometry of powered supports, changing the cutting pattern at longwall face and limiting the panels to damaged regions with supercritical VIs could be considered to control the soft floor failure in this mine. The results of this research could be used as a useful tool to identify the damaged regions prior to mining operation at longwall panel for the same conditions.

  1. Productive Failure

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kapur, Manu

    2008-01-01

    This study demonstrates an existence proof for "productive failure": engaging students in solving complex, ill-structured problems without the provision of support structures can be a productive exercise in failure. In a computer-supported collaborative learning setting, eleventh-grade science students were randomly assigned to one of two…

  2. Pre-antiretroviral therapy serum selenium concentrations predict WHO stages 3, 4 or death but not virologic failure post-antiretroviral therapy.

    PubMed

    Shivakoti, Rupak; Gupte, Nikhil; Yang, Wei-Teng; Mwelase, Noluthando; Kanyama, Cecilia; Tang, Alice M; Pillay, Sandy; Samaneka, Wadzanai; Riviere, Cynthia; Berendes, Sima; Lama, Javier R; Cardoso, Sandra W; Sugandhavesa, Patcharaphan; Semba, Richard D; Christian, Parul; Campbell, Thomas B; Gupta, Amita

    2014-11-01

    A case-cohort study, within a multi-country trial of antiretroviral therapy (ART) efficacy (Prospective Evaluation of Antiretrovirals in Resource Limited Settings (PEARLS)), was conducted to determine if pre-ART serum selenium deficiency is independently associated with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease progression after ART initiation. Cases were HIV-1 infected adults with either clinical failure (incident World Health Organization (WHO) stage 3, 4 or death by 96 weeks) or virologic failure by 24 months. Risk factors for serum selenium deficiency (<85 μg/L) pre-ART and its association with outcomes were examined. Median serum selenium concentration was 82.04 μg/L (Interquartile range (IQR): 57.28-99.89) and serum selenium deficiency was 53%, varying widely by country from 0% to 100%. In multivariable models, risk factors for serum selenium deficiency were country, previous tuberculosis, anemia, and elevated C-reactive protein. Serum selenium deficiency was not associated with either clinical failure or virologic failure in multivariable models. However, relative to people in the third quartile (74.86-95.10 μg/L) of serum selenium, we observed increased hazards (adjusted hazards ratio (HR): 3.50; 95% confidence intervals (CI): 1.30-9.42) of clinical failure but not virologic failure for people in the highest quartile. If future studies confirm this relationship of high serum selenium with increased clinical failure, a cautious approach to selenium supplementation might be needed, especially in HIV-infected populations with sufficient or unknown levels of selenium. PMID:25401501

  3. Heart Failure

    MedlinePlus

    ... together. About Rise Above HF Rise Above Heart Failure seeks to increase the dialogue about HF and improve the lives of people affected by the condition through awareness, education and support. Through the initiative, AHA strives to ...

  4. Testicular failure

    MedlinePlus

    ... Blood tests may show a low level of testosterone and high levels of prolactin, FSH , and LH . ... testes will be ordered. Testicular failure and low testosterone level may be hard to diagnose in older ...

  5. A simple approach to modeling ductile failure.

    SciTech Connect

    Wellman, Gerald William

    2012-06-01

    Sandia National Laboratories has the need to predict the behavior of structures after the occurrence of an initial failure. In some cases determining the extent of failure, beyond initiation, is required, while in a few cases the initial failure is a design feature used to tailor the subsequent load paths. In either case, the ability to numerically simulate the initiation and propagation of failures is a highly desired capability. This document describes one approach to the simulation of failure initiation and propagation.

  6. Transthoracic Echocardiography with Doppler Tissue Imaging predicts weaning failure from mechanical ventilation: evolution of the left ventricle relaxation rate during a spontaneous breathing trial is the key factor in weaning outcome

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Introduction There is growing evidence to suggest that transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) should be used to identify the cardiac origin of respiratory weaning failure. The aims of our study were: first, to evaluate the ability of transthoracic echocardiography, with mitral Doppler inflow E velocity to annular tissue Doppler Ea wave velocity (E/Ea) ratio measurement, to predict weaning failure from mechanical ventilation in patients, including those with atrial fibrillation; and second, to determine whether the depressed left ejection fraction and/or diastolic dysfunction participate in weaning outcome. Methods The sample included patients on mechanical ventilation for over 48 hours. A complete echocardiography was performed just before the spontaneous breathing trial (SBT) and 10 minutes after starting the SBT. Systolic dysfunction was defined by a left ventricle ejection fraction under 50% and relaxation impairment by a protodiastolic annulus mitral velocity Ea under or equal to 8 cm/second. Results A total of 68 patients were included. Twenty failed the weaning process and the other 48 patients succeeded. Before the SBT, the E/Ea ratio was higher in the failed group than in the successful group. The E/Ea measured during the SBT was also higher in the failed group. The cut-off value, obtained from receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis, to predict weaning failure gave an E/Ea ratio during the SBT of 14.5 with a sensitivity of 75% and a specificity of 95.8%. The left ventricular ejection fraction did not differ between the two groups whereas Ea was lower in the failed group. Ea increased during SBT in the successful group while no change occurred in the failed group. Conclusions Measurement of the E/Ea ratio with TTE could predict weaning failure. Diastolic dysfunction with relaxation impairment is strongly associated with weaning failure. Moreover, the impossibility of enhancing the left ventricle relaxation rate during the SBT seems to be the

  7. The ratio of oleic-to-stearic acid in the prostate predicts biochemical failure after radical prostatectomy for localized prostate cancer

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Our study examined lifestyle-related factors that may influence the prognosis of clinically localized prostate cancer, we evaluated the relative impact of obesity and prostatic fatty acid concentrations at diagnosis on risk of biochemical failure following radical prostatectomy. Height and weight w...

  8. Identifying Clients Predisposed To Failure

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carnes, G. D.

    1973-01-01

    Studies are reviewed that report the prediction of rehabilitation failure from personality measures. Related research is discussed that suggest the dynamics underlying a key concept, the "hypochondriacally organized personality" which is identifiable from the Rorschach anatomy response percentage. (Author)

  9. Can We Predict Oral Antibiotic Treatment Failure in Children with Fast-Breathing Pneumonia Managed at the Community Level? A Prospective Cohort Study in Malawi

    PubMed Central

    King, Carina; McCollum, Eric D.; Mankhambo, Limangeni; Colbourn, Tim; Beard, James; Hay Burgess, Debbie C.; Costello, Anthony; Izadnegahdar, Raza; Lufesi, Norman; Masache, Gibson; Mwansambo, Charles; Nambiar, Bejoy; Johnson, Eric; Platt, Robert; Mukanga, David

    2015-01-01

    Background Pneumonia is the leading cause of infectious death amongst children globally, with the highest burden in Africa. Early identification of children at risk of treatment failure in the community and prompt referral could lower mortality. A number of clinical markers have been independently associated with oral antibiotic failure in childhood pneumonia. This study aimed to develop a prognostic model for fast-breathing pneumonia treatment failure in sub-Saharan Africa. Method We prospectively followed a cohort of children (2–59 months), diagnosed by community health workers with fast-breathing pneumonia using World Health Organisation (WHO) integrated community case management guidelines. Cases were followed at days 5 and 14 by study data collectors, who assessed a range of pre-determined clinical features for treatment outcome. We built the prognostic model using eight pre-defined parameters, using multivariable logistic regression, validated through bootstrapping. Results We assessed 1,542 cases of which 769 were included (32% ineligible; 19% defaulted). The treatment failure rate was 15% at day 5 and relapse was 4% at day 14. Concurrent malaria diagnosis (OR: 1.62; 95% CI: 1.06, 2.47) and moderate malnutrition (OR: 1.88; 95% CI: 1.09, 3.26) were associated with treatment failure. The model demonstrated poor calibration and discrimination (c-statistic: 0.56). Conclusion This study suggests that it may be difficult to create a pragmatic community-level prognostic child pneumonia tool based solely on clinical markers and pulse oximetry in an HIV and malaria endemic setting. Further work is needed to identify more accurate and reliable referral algorithms that remain feasible for use by community health workers. PMID:26313752

  10. Genetic and ElectroNic medIcal records to predict oUtcomeS in Heart Failure patients (GENIUS-HF) - design and rationale

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Studies adopting electronic medical records and genomic information are becoming widespread. Through this new modality in research, it is possible to study how genetic variants influence susceptibility towards chronic conditions and can improve patient care. Our aim is to develop a biobank with 2,000 heart failure patients treated in a tertiary cardiology hospital containing electronic medical records data and biologic samples for performing genome-wide association studies for validation and development of medical decision routines aimed at helping the clinical management of patients. Methods/Design Patients between 18 and 80 years old with heart failure diagnosis of different etiologies and left ventricular ejection fraction ≤ 50% in the past 2 years will be eligible for enrollment on the cohort. After consent, patients will be submitted to clinical baseline, echocardiography, cardiograph impedance and biochemical evaluation. Study data will be collected and managed using Research Electronic Data Capture tools. The follow up will take place every 6 months to assess cardiovascular outcomes (all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, hospitalization for worsening heart failure and current medication use). Initial analytical strategy will focus on the establishment of the accuracy of electronic medical records extraction protocols for main predictor factors of morbidity and mortality in heart failure. Discussion Building a biobank with biologic samples and clinical data of 2,000 heart failure patients we will perform genome-wide association studies. By this way, we pretend to study how genetic variants influence susceptibility towards chronic conditions. Besides, it will be created a working group focused on the development and implementation of algorithms for validation and application of medical routines using the electronic medical records of the Heart Institute (InCor - HCFMUSP). Trial registration Current Controlled Trials NTC02043431

  11. Comparison of Ranson, Glasgow, MOSS, SIRS, BISAP, APACHE-II, CTSI Scores, IL-6, CRP, and Procalcitonin in Predicting Severity, Organ Failure, Pancreatic Necrosis, and Mortality in Acute Pancreatitis

    PubMed Central

    Khanna, Ajay K.; Meher, Susanta; Prakash, Shashi; Tiwary, Satyendra Kumar; Singh, Usha; Srivastava, Arvind; Dixit, V. K.

    2013-01-01

    Background. Multifactorial scorings, radiological scores, and biochemical markers may help in early prediction of severity, pancreatic necrosis, and mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP). Methods. BISAP, APACHE-II, MOSS, and SIRS scores were calculated using data within 24 hrs of admission, whereas Ranson and Glasgow scores after 48 hrs of admission; CTSI was calculated on day 4 whereas IL-6 and CRP values at end of study. Predictive accuracy of scoring systems, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of various markers in prediction of severe acute pancreatitis, organ failure, pancreatic necrosis, admission to intensive care units and mortality were calculated. Results. Of 72 patients, 31 patients had organ failure and local complication classified as severe acute pancreatitis, 17 had pancreatic necrosis, and 9 died (12.5%). Area under curves for Ranson, Glasgow, MOSS, SIRS, APACHE-II, BISAP, CTSI, IL-6, and CRP in predicting SAP were 0.85, 0.75, 0.73, 0.73, 0.88, 0.80, 0.90, and 0.91, respectively, for pancreatic necrosis 0.70, 0.64, 0.61, 0.61, 0.68, 0.61, 0.75, 0.86, and 0.90, respectively, and for mortality 0.84, 0.83, 0.77, 0.76, 0.86, 0.83, 0.57, 0.80, and 0.75, respectively. Conclusion. CRP and IL-6 have shown a promising result in early detection of severity and pancreatic necrosis whereas APACHE-II and Ranson score in predicting AP related mortality in this study. PMID:24204087

  12. Does Lymphovascular Invasion Predict Regional Nodal Failure in Breast Cancer Patients With Zero to Three Positive Lymph Nodes Treated With Conserving Surgery and Radiotherapy? Implications for Regional Radiation

    SciTech Connect

    Boutrus, Rimoun; Abi-Raad, Rita; Niemierko, Andrzej; Brachtel, Elena F.; Rizk, Levi; Kelada, Alexandra; Taghian, Alphonse G.

    2010-11-01

    Purpose: To examine the relationship between lymphovascular invasion (LVI) and regional nodal failure (RNF) in breast cancer patients with zero to three positive nodes treated with breast-conservation therapy (BCT). Methods and Materials: The records of 1,257 breast cancer patients with zero to three positive lymph nodes were reviewed. All patients were treated with BCT at Massachusetts General Hospital from 1980 to December 2003. Lymphovascular invasion was diagnosed by hematoxylin and eosin-stained sections and in some cases supported by immunohistochemical stains. Regional nodal failure was defined as recurrence in the ipsilateral supraclavicular, axillary, or internal mammary lymph nodes. Regional nodal failure was diagnosed by clinical and/or radiologic examination. Results: The median follow-up was 8 years (range, 0.1-21 years). Lymphovascular invasion was present in 211 patients (17%). In univariate analysis, patients with LVI had a higher rate of RNF (3.32% vs. 1.15%; p = 0.02). In multivariate analysis, only tumor size, grade, and local failure were significant predictors of RNF (p = 0.049, 0.013, and 0.0001, respectively), whereas LVI did not show a significant relationship with RNF (hazard ratio = 2.07; 95% CI, 0.8-5.5; p = 0.143). The presence of LVI in the T2/3 population did not increase the risk of RNF over that for those with no LVI (p = 0.15). In addition, patients with Grade 3 tumors and positive LVI did not have a higher risk of RNF than those without LVI (p = 0.96). Conclusion: These results suggest that LVI can not be used as a sole indicator for regional nodal irradiation in breast cancer patients with zero to three positive lymph nodes treated with BCT.

  13. The detection of donor-directed, HLA-specific alloantibodies in recipients of unrelated hematopoietic cell transplantation is predictive of graft failure

    PubMed Central

    Bray, Robert; Rosen-Bronson, Sandra; Haagenson, Michael; Klein, John; Flesch, Susan; Vierra-Green, Cynthia; Anasetti, Claudio

    2010-01-01

    Donor-directed human leukocyte antigen (HLA)–specific allo-antibodies (DSAs) cause graft failure in animal models of hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HCT). Archived pretransplantation sera from graft failure patients (n = 37) and a matched case-control cohort (n = 78) were tested to evaluate the role of DSAs in unrelated donor HCT. Controls were matched for disease, disease status, graft type, patient age, and transplantation year. Patients had acute myeloid leukemia, acute lymphoblastic leukemia, chronic myelogenous leukemia, or myelodysplastic syndrome; 98% received myeloablative conditioning regimens 100% received T-replete grafts, 97% received marrow, 95% HLA-mismatched, and 97% received calcineurin-based graft-versus-host disease prophylaxis. Among the 37 failed transplantations, 9 (24%) recipients possessed DSAs against HLA-A, B, and/or DP, compared with only 1 (1%) of 78 controls. Therefore, the presence of DSAs was significantly associated with graft failure (odds ratio = 22.84; 95% confidence interval, 3.57-∞; P < .001). These results indicate that the presence of pretransplantation DSAs in recipients of unrelated donor HCT is associated with failed engraftment and should be considered in HCT donor selection. PMID:20089963

  14. Excessive Dynamic Airway Collapse: An Unexpected Contributor to Respiratory Failure in a Surgical Patient.

    PubMed

    Lyaker, Michael R; Davila, Victor R; Papadimos, Thomas J

    2015-01-01

    Central airway collapse plays a significant, underrecognized role in respiratory failure after extubation of critically ill patients. Historically, airway collapse has been attributed to tracheomalacia (TM), softening of the cartilage in the trachea and other large airways. More recently, excessive dynamic airway collapse (EDAC) has been described as a distinct process unrelated to a loss of cartilaginous airway support. EDAC is caused by the posterior wall of the trachea bulging forward and causing airway obstruction during exhalation. This process is exaggerated when intrathoracic pressure is increased and results in a clinical picture of coughing, difficulty clearing secretions, dyspnea, and stridor. The increased use of computerized tomography and fiberoptic bronchoscopy has identified varying degrees of EDAC and TM in both symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. This has led to renewed consideration of airway collapse and the different processes that contribute to it. Here we describe a 43-year-old morbidly obese patient who failed repeated attempts at extubation after elective hysterectomy. We will discuss the processes of EDAC and TM, describe how this condition contributed to this patient's respiratory failure, and review diagnosis and management options. PMID:26167306

  15. Excessive Dynamic Airway Collapse: An Unexpected Contributor to Respiratory Failure in a Surgical Patient

    PubMed Central

    Lyaker, Michael R.; Davila, Victor R.; Papadimos, Thomas J.

    2015-01-01

    Central airway collapse plays a significant, underrecognized role in respiratory failure after extubation of critically ill patients. Historically, airway collapse has been attributed to tracheomalacia (TM), softening of the cartilage in the trachea and other large airways. More recently, excessive dynamic airway collapse (EDAC) has been described as a distinct process unrelated to a loss of cartilaginous airway support. EDAC is caused by the posterior wall of the trachea bulging forward and causing airway obstruction during exhalation. This process is exaggerated when intrathoracic pressure is increased and results in a clinical picture of coughing, difficulty clearing secretions, dyspnea, and stridor. The increased use of computerized tomography and fiberoptic bronchoscopy has identified varying degrees of EDAC and TM in both symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. This has led to renewed consideration of airway collapse and the different processes that contribute to it. Here we describe a 43-year-old morbidly obese patient who failed repeated attempts at extubation after elective hysterectomy. We will discuss the processes of EDAC and TM, describe how this condition contributed to this patient's respiratory failure, and review diagnosis and management options. PMID:26167306

  16. Heart Failure

    MedlinePlus

    ... Tiredness and shortness of breath Common causes of heart failure are coronary artery disease, high blood pressure and diabetes. It is more common in people who are 65 years old or older, African Americans, people who are overweight, and people who have ...

  17. Respiratory Failure

    MedlinePlus

    ... from inhaling smoke or harmful fumes Treatment for respiratory failure depends on whether the condition is acute (short-term) or chronic (ongoing) and how severe it is. It also depends on the underlying cause. You may receive oxygen therapy and other treatment to help you breathe. NIH: ...

  18. The effects of an intravenous bolus of dexmedetomidine following extubation in a mixed population of dogs undergoing general anaesthesia and surgery.

    PubMed

    Hunt, James R; Slingsby, Louisa S; Murrell, Joanna C

    2014-04-01

    An observer blinded, placebo controlled study evaluated the effects of 62.5 μg/m(2) dexmedetomidine administered IV on recovery from isoflurane anaesthesia in dogs. Forty-four healthy dogs, weighing 1.8-19.95 kg, presented for surgery that was expected to cause mild to moderate pain were studied. All were premedicated with 125 μg/m(2) dexmedetomidine and 20 μg/kg buprenorphine IM. Anaesthesia was induced with propofol and maintained with isoflurane. Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and local anaesthetics were administered as appropriate. Immediately prior to extubation dogs were treated with dexmedetomidine 62.5 μg/m(2) (group D) or an equivalent volume of heparinised saline (S). Assessments of heart rate, respiratory rate, pain (short form Glasgow composite pain scale [SF-GCPS], dynamic interactive visual analogue scale [DIVAS]), sedation (simple descriptive scale [SDS], DIVAS) and mechanical nociceptive threshold (MNT) were performed immediately before premedication, 20 min later, at the time of test drug administration (T0) and at 15-30 min intervals for four hours (T240 min). Recovery quality was scored 0 - 3 (SDS). Data were analysed with Student's t and Mann-Whitney U tests, two-way ANOVA and Fisher's exact test. Significantly fewer poor quality recoveries were observed in group D (D 2 [1-3]; S 2 [0-3]; P=0.02), however, sedation was increased in group D compared to group S from T15 to T150 min (P=0.0001). Pain scores were lower in group D compared to group S from T15 to T120 min (P=0.001), but the requirement for additional analgesia in the first 4h following extubation was not different between groups. Dexmedetomidine may decrease the incidence of poor quality anaesthetic recoveries in dogs. PMID:24582423

  19. Chromosomal translocations independently predict treatment failure, treatment-free survival and overall survival in B-cell chronic lymphocytic leukemia patients treated with cladribine.

    PubMed

    Van Den Neste, E; Robin, V; Francart, J; Hagemeijer, A; Stul, M; Vandenberghe, P; Delannoy, A; Sonet, A; Deneys, V; Costantini, S; Ferrant, A; Robert, A; Michaux, L

    2007-08-01

    Chromosomal translocations represent an important prognostic indicator in B-cell chronic lymphocytic leukemia (B-CLL). However, their value had been neither determined in homogeneously treated patients nor compared to that of IgV(H) mutational status. Sixty-five B-CLL patients were investigated using cytogenetics, interphase fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH), analysis of IgV(H) and of TP53 mutational status before treatment with 2-chloro-2'-deoxyadenosine (CdA). Translocations (n=45) were detected in 42% of the patients, including both balanced (n=12) and unbalanced (n=33) types. IgV(H) was mutated in 43% of the patients. Patients with translocations were more heavily pretreated (P=0.05), presented with more complex karyotypes (P<0.001), 17p abnormalities and TP53 mutations, and had a higher failure rate (59 vs 21% in patients without translocations, P=0.004). Patients with unbalanced translocations displayed a shorter median treatment-free survival (TFS, 6.9 vs 35.9 months, log rank 22.72, P<0.001) and overall survival (OS, 13.0 vs 68.0 months, log rank 16.51, P<0.001), as compared to patients without translocation. In multivariate analysis, unbalanced translocations were independently associated with therapeutic failure, short TFS and short OS. IgV(H) mutational status was independently associated with risk of failure and TFS, but not OS. In B-CLL patients treated with CdA, translocations are strong predictors of outcome. PMID:17541398

  20. Early Failure of Frontline Rituximab-containing Chemoimmunotherapy in Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma does not Predict Futility of Autologous Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation

    PubMed Central

    Hamadani, Mehdi; Hari, Parameswaran N.; Zhang, Ying; Carreras, Jeanette; Akpek, Görgün; Aljurf, Mahmoud D.; Ayala, Ernesto; Bachanova, Veronika; Chen, Andy I.; Chen, Yi-Bin; Costa, Luciano J.; Fenske, Timothy S.; Freytes, César O.; Ganguly, Siddhartha; Hertzberg, Mark S.; Holmberg, Leona A.; Inwards, David J.; Kamble, Rammurti T.; Kanfer, Edward J.; Lazarus, Hillard M.; Marks, David I.; Nishihori, Taiga; Olsson, Richard; Reddy, Nishitha M.; Rizzieri, David A.; Savani, Bipin N.; Solh, Melhem; Vose, Julie M.; Wirk, Baldeep; Maloney, David G.; Smith, Sonali M.; Montoto, Silvia; Saber, Wael

    2014-01-01

    The poor prognosis of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) patients relapsing within 1-year of initial diagnosis after first-line rituximab-based chemoimmunotherapy has created controversy about the role of autologous transplantation (auto-HCT) in this setting. We compared auto-HCT outcomes of chemosensitive DLBCL patients between 2000 and 2011 in two cohorts based on time to relapse from diagnosis. The early rituximab failure (ERF) cohort consisted of patients with primary refractory disease or those with first relapse within 1-year of initial diagnosis. The ERF cohort was compared with those relapsing >1-year after initial diagnosis (Late Rituximab Failure [LRF] cohort). ERF and LRF cohorts included 300 and 216 patients, respectively. Non-relapse mortality (NRM), progression/relapse, progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) of ERF vs. LRF cohorts at 3-years were 9% (95%CI 6–13) vs. 9% (95%CI 5–13), 47% (95%CI 41–52) vs. 39% (95%CI 33–46), 44% (95%CI 38–50) vs. 52% (95%CI 45–59) and 50% (95 CI 44–56) vs. 67% (95%CI 60–74), respectively. On multivariate analysis, ERF was not associated with higher NRM (relative risk (RR) 1.31, p=0.34). ERF cohort had a higher risk of treatment failure (progression/relapse or death) (RR 2.08, p<0.001) and overall mortality (RR 3.75, p<0.001) within the first 9 months post auto-HCT. Beyond this period, PFS and OS were not significantly different between ERF and LRF cohorts. Auto-HCT provides durable disease control to a sizeable subset of DLBCL despite ERF (3-year PFS 44%), and remains the standard-of-care in chemosensitive DLBCL regardless of the timing of disease relapse. PMID:25008330

  1. Early failure of frontline rituximab-containing chemo-immunotherapy in diffuse large B cell lymphoma does not predict futility of autologous hematopoietic cell transplantation.

    PubMed

    Hamadani, Mehdi; Hari, Parameswaran N; Zhang, Ying; Carreras, Jeanette; Akpek, Görgün; Aljurf, Mahmoud D; Ayala, Ernesto; Bachanova, Veronika; Chen, Andy I; Chen, Yi-Bin; Costa, Luciano J; Fenske, Timothy S; Freytes, César O; Ganguly, Siddhartha; Hertzberg, Mark S; Holmberg, Leona A; Inwards, David J; Kamble, Rammurti T; Kanfer, Edward J; Lazarus, Hillard M; Marks, David I; Nishihori, Taiga; Olsson, Richard; Reddy, Nishitha M; Rizzieri, David A; Savani, Bipin N; Solh, Melhem; Vose, Julie M; Wirk, Baldeep; Maloney, David G; Smith, Sonali M; Montoto, Silvia; Saber, Wael; Alpdogan, Onder; Cashen, Amanda; Dandoy, Christopher; Finke, Robert; Gale, Robert; Gibson, John; Hsu, Jack W; Janakiraman, Nalini; Laughlin, Mary J; Lill, Michael; Cairo, Mitchell S; Munker, Reinhold; Rowlings, Phil A; Schouten, Harry C; Shea, Thomas C; Stiff, Patrick J; Waller, Edmund K

    2014-11-01

    The poor prognosis for patients with diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL) who relapse within 1 year of initial diagnosis after first-line rituximab-based chemo-immunotherapy has created controversy about the role of autologous transplantation (HCT) in this setting. We compared autologous HCT outcomes for chemosensitive DLBCL patients between 2000 and 2011 in 2 cohorts based on time to relapse from diagnosis. The early rituximab failure (ERF) cohort consisted of patients with primary refractory disease or those with first relapse within 1 year of initial diagnosis. The ERF cohort was compared with those relapsing >1 year after initial diagnosis (late rituximab failure [LRF] cohort). ERF and LRF cohorts included 300 and 216 patients, respectively. Nonrelapse mortality (NRM), progression/relapse, progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS) of ERF versus LRF cohorts at 3 years were 9% (95% confidence interval [CI], 6% to 13%) versus 9% (95% CI, 5% to 13%), 47% (95% CI, 41% to 52%) versus 39% (95% CI, 33% to 46%), 44% (95% CI, 38% to 50%) versus 52% (95% CI, 45% to 59%), and 50% (95% CI, 44% to 56%) versus 67% (95% CI, 60% to 74%), respectively. On multivariate analysis, ERF was not associated with higher NRM (relative risk [RR], 1.31; P = .34). The ERF cohort had a higher risk of treatment failure (progression/relapse or death) (RR, 2.08; P < .001) and overall mortality (RR, 3.75; P <.001) within the first 9 months after autologous HCT. Beyond this period, PFS and OS were not significantly different between the ERF and LRF cohorts. Autologous HCT provides durable disease control to a sizeable subset of DLBCL despite ERF (3-year PFS, 44%) and remains the standard-of-care in chemosensitive DLBCL regardless of the timing of disease relapse. PMID:25008330

  2. Toward full-chip prediction of yield-limiting contact patterning failure: correlation of simulated image parameters to advanced contact metrology metrics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sturtevant, John L.; Chou, Dyiann

    2006-03-01

    Electrical failure due to incomplete contacts or vias has arisen as one of the primary modes of yield loss for 130 nm and below designs in manufacturing. Such failures are generally understood to arise from both random and systematic sources. The addition of redundant vias, where possible, has long been an accepted DFM practice for mitigating the impact of random defects. Incomplete vias are often characterized by having a diameter near the target dimension but a depth of less than 100% of target. As such, it is a difficult problem to diagnose and debug in-line, since bright and dark field optical inspection systems cannot typically distinguish between a closed, partially open and fully open contact. Advanced metrology systems have emerged in recent years to meet this challenge, but no perfect manufacturing solution has yet been identified for full field verification of all contacts. Voltage Contrast (VC) SEM metrology biases the wafer to directly measure electrical conductivity after fill / polish, and can therefore easily discern a lack of electrical connection to the underlying conductor caused by incomplete photo, etch, or fill processing. While an entire wafer can in principal be VC scanned, throughput limitations dictate very sparse sampling in manufacturing. SEM profile grading (PG) leverages the rich content of the secondary electron waveform to decipher information about the bottom of the contact. Several authors have demonstrated an excellent response of the Profile Grade to intentional defocus vectors. However, the SEM can only target discreet or single digit groupings of contacts, and therefore requires intelligent guidance to identify those contacts which are most prone to failure, enabling protection of the fab WIP. An a-priori knowledge of which specific contacts in a layout are most likely to fail would prove very useful for proactive inspection in manufacturing. Model based pre-manufacturing verification allows for such knowledge to be communicated

  3. Experimental aspects and mechanical modeling paradigms for the prediction of degradation and failure in nanocomposite materials subjected to fatigue loading conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Averett, Rodney D.

    2008-10-01

    The objective of the current research was to contribute to the area of mechanics of composite polymeric materials. This objective was reached by establishing a quantitative assessment of the fatigue strength and evolution of mechanical property changes during fatigue loading of nanocomposite fibers and films. Both experimental testing and mathematical modeling were used to gain a fundamental understanding of the fatigue behavior and material changes that occurred during fatigue loading. In addition, the objective of the study was to gain a qualitative and fundamental understanding of the failure mechanisms that occurred between the nanoagent and matrix in nanocomposite fibers. This objective was accomplished by examining scanning electron microscopy (SEM) fractographs. The results of this research can be used to better understand the behavior of nanocomposite materials in applications where degradation due to fatigue and instability of the composite under loading conditions may be a concern. These applications are typically encountered in automotive, aerospace, and civil engineering applications where fatigue and/or fracture are primary factors that contribute to failure.

  4. Metallization failures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Beatty, R.

    1971-01-01

    Metallization-related failure mechanisms were shown to be a major cause of integrated circuit failures under accelerated stress conditions, as well as in actual use under field operation. The integrated circuit industry is aware of the problem and is attempting to solve it in one of two ways: (1) better understanding of the aluminum system, which is the most widely used metallization material for silicon integrated circuits both as a single level and multilevel metallization, or (2) evaluating alternative metal systems. Aluminum metallization offers many advantages, but also has limitations particularly at elevated temperatures and high current densities. As an alternative, multilayer systems of the general form, silicon device-metal-inorganic insulator-metal, are being considered to produce large scale integrated arrays. The merits and restrictions of metallization systems in current usage and systems under development are defined.

  5. Heart Failure in South America

    PubMed Central

    Bocchi, Edimar Alcides

    2013-01-01

    Continued assessment of temporal trends in mortality and epidemiology of specific heart failure in South America is needed to provide a scientific basis for rational allocation of the limited health care resources, and strategies to reduce risk and predict the future burden of heart failure. The epidemiology of heart failure in South America was reviewed. Heart failure is the main cause of hospitalization based on available data from approximately 50% of the South American population. The main etiologies of heart failure are ischemic, idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy, valvular, hypertensive and chagasic etiologies. In endemic areas, Chagas heart disease may be responsible by 41% of the HF cases. Also, heart failure presents high mortality especially in patients with Chagas etiology. Heart failure and etiologies associated with heart failure may be responsible for 6.3% of causes of deaths. Rheumatic fever is the leading cause of valvular heart disease. However, a tendency to reduction of HF mortality due to Chagas heart disease from 1985 to 2006, and reduction in mortality due to HF from 1999 to 2005 were observed in selected states in Brazil. The findings have important public health implications because the allocation of health care resources, and strategies to reduce risk of heart failure should also consider the control of neglected Chagas disease and rheumatic fever in South American countries. PMID:23597301

  6. Progressive Failure Analysis Methodology for Laminated Composite Structures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sleight, David W.

    1999-01-01

    A progressive failure analysis method has been developed for predicting the failure of laminated composite structures under geometrically nonlinear deformations. The progressive failure analysis uses C(exp 1) shell elements based on classical lamination theory to calculate the in-plane stresses. Several failure criteria, including the maximum strain criterion, Hashin's criterion, and Christensen's criterion, are used to predict the failure mechanisms and several options are available to degrade the material properties after failures. The progressive failure analysis method is implemented in the COMET finite element analysis code and can predict the damage and response of laminated composite structures from initial loading to final failure. The different failure criteria and material degradation methods are compared and assessed by performing analyses of several laminated composite structures. Results from the progressive failure method indicate good correlation with the existing test data except in structural applications where interlaminar stresses are important which may cause failure mechanisms such as debonding or delaminations.

  7. Predicting Response to Early Reading Intervention from Verbal IQ, Reading-Related Language Abilities, Attention Ratings, and Verbal IQ-Word Reading Discrepancy: Failure To Validate Discrepancy Method.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stage, Scott A.; Abbott, Robert D.; Jenkins, Joseph R.; Berninger, Virginia W.

    2003-01-01

    Additional analysis of a previously published study involving 128 first-graders with double or triple deficit in language skills (rapid automatized naming, phonological, and orthographic processing) responded more slowly to early intervention than students without language deficits. Verbal IQ-word reading discrepancy did not predict response to…

  8. Failure of time-kill synergy studies using subinhibitory antimicrobial concentrations to predict in vivo antagonism of cephalosporin-rifampin combinations against Staphylococcus aureus.

    PubMed Central

    Brandt, C M; Rouse, M S; Tallan, B M; Wilson, W R; Steckelberg, J M

    1994-01-01

    Results of in vitro time-kill synergy studies using subinhibitory, inhibitory, or suprainhibitory concentrations of bactericidal agents were compared with treatment outcomes of experimental infective endocarditis due to a methicillin-susceptible strain of Staphylococcus aureus. For rifampin-cephalosporin combinations, in vitro synergy testing using recommended fractions of the MIC failed to predict antagonism in vivo while concentrations above the MIC corresponded with antagonism in vivo. PMID:7811044

  9. Biomarkers in acute heart failure.

    PubMed

    Mallick, Aditi; Januzzi, James L

    2015-06-01

    The care of patients with acutely decompensated heart failure is being reshaped by the availability and understanding of several novel and emerging heart failure biomarkers. The gold standard biomarkers in heart failure are B-type natriuretic peptide and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, which play an important role in the diagnosis, prognosis, and management of acute decompensated heart failure. Novel biomarkers that are increasingly involved in the processes of myocardial injury, neurohormonal activation, and ventricular remodeling are showing promise in improving diagnosis and prognosis among patients with acute decompensated heart failure. These include midregional proatrial natriuretic peptide, soluble ST2, galectin-3, highly-sensitive troponin, and midregional proadrenomedullin. There has also been an emergence of biomarkers for evaluation of acute decompensated heart failure that assist in the differential diagnosis of dyspnea, such as procalcitonin (for identification of acute pneumonia), as well as markers that predict complications of acute decompensated heart failure, such as renal injury markers. In this article, we will review the pathophysiology and usefulness of established and emerging biomarkers for the clinical diagnosis, prognosis, and management of acute decompensated heart failure. PMID:25911167

  10. Usefulness of right ventricular fractional area change to predict death, heart failure, and stroke following myocardial infarction (from the VALIANT ECHO Study).

    PubMed

    Anavekar, Nagesh S; Skali, Hicham; Bourgoun, Mikhail; Ghali, Jalal K; Kober, Lars; Maggioni, Aldo P; McMurray, John J V; Velazquez, Eric; Califf, Robert; Pfeffer, Marc A; Solomon, Scott D

    2008-03-01

    Severe right ventricular dysfunction independent of left ventricular ejection fraction increased the risk of heart failure (HF) and death after myocardial infarction (MI). The association between right ventricular function and other clinical outcomes after MI was less clear. Two-dimensional echocardiograms were obtained in 605 patients with left ventricular dysfunction and/or clinical/radiologic evidence of HF from the VALIANT echocardiographic substudy (mean 5.0 +/- 2.5 days after MI). Clinical outcomes included all-cause mortality, cardiovascular (CV) death, sudden death, HF, and stroke. Baseline right ventricular function was measured in 522 patients using right ventricular fractional area change (RVFAC) and was related to clinical outcomes. Mean RVFAC was 41.9 +/- 4.3% (range 19.2% to 53.1%). The incidence of clinical events increased with decreasing RVFAC. After adjusting for 11 covariates, including age, ejection fraction, and Killip's classification, decreased RVFAC was independently associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1.61, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.31 to 1.98), CV death (HR 1.62, 95% CI 1.30 to 2.01), sudden death (HR 1.79, 95% CI 1.26 to 2.54), HF (HR 1.48, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.86), and stroke (HR 2.95, 95% CI 1.76 to 4.95), but not recurrent MI. Each 5% decrease in baseline RVFAC was associated with a 1.53 (95% CI 1.24 to 1.88) increased risk of fatal and nonfatal CV outcomes. In conclusion, decreased right ventricular systolic function is a major risk factor for death, sudden death, HF, and stroke after MI. PMID:18308007

  11. Lifetime and failure strain prediction for material subjected to non-stationary tensile loading conditions: applications to Zircaloy - 4. [Monkman-Grant relationship

    SciTech Connect

    Bocek, M.

    1982-01-01

    The life fraction rule (LFR) is used to calculate the lifetime of materials subjected to stress and temperature ramp loading. The solutions for the individual nonstationary temperature and stress loading conditions can be applied to predict also the lifetime of structures loaded by superimposed ramps solely on the basis of normal 'iso'-stress rupture data. The concept is applied to tensional stress and temperature cycling as well. As compared with the peculiarities of the problem, the agreement between experiments and calculations is encouraging. 16 refs.

  12. Usefulness of plasma renin activity in predicting haemodynamic and clinical responses and survival during long term converting enzyme inhibition in severe chronic heart failure. Experience in 100 consecutive patients.

    PubMed Central

    Packer, M; Medina, N; Yushak, M; Lee, W H

    1985-01-01

    The relation between plasma renin activity before treatment and the haemodynamic and clinical responses to converting enzyme inhibition was determined in 100 consecutive patients with severe chronic heart failure who were treated with captopril or enalapril. Initial doses of captopril produced significant increases in cardiac index and decreases in left ventricular filling pressure, mean arterial pressure, mean right atrial pressure, heart rate, and systemic vascular resistance that varied linearly with the pretreatment value for plasma renin activity. In contrast, there was no relation between the pretreatment activity and the magnitude of haemodynamic improvement after 1-3 months of treatment with the converting enzyme inhibitors, and, consequently, a similar proportion of patients with a high (greater than 6 ng/ml/h; greater than 4.62 mmol/l/h), intermediate (2-6 ng/ml/h; 1.54-4.62 mmol/l/h), and low (less than 2 ng/ml/h; less than 1.54 mmol/l/h) pretreatment value improved clinically during long term treatment (64%, 60%, and 64% respectively). Long term survival after one, two, and three years was similar in the three groups. Estimating the degree of activation of the renin-angiotensin system by measuring pretreatment plasma renin activity fails to predict the long term haemodynamic or clinical responses to converting enzyme inhibitors in patients with severe chronic heart failure, and thus appears to be of limited value in selecting those patients likely to benefit from treatment with these drugs. PMID:2994697

  13. WE-G-BRD-09: Prediction of Local Control/Failure by Using Feature Histogram Selection in Follow-Up T2-Weighted MR Image in Spinal Tumors After Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy

    SciTech Connect

    Zhou, J; Harb, J; Jawad, M; Yee, S; Schulze, D; Liang, J; Grills D, Yan

    2014-06-15

    Purpose: In follow-up T2-weighted MR images of spinal tumor patients treated with stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT), high intensity features embedded in dark surroundings may suggest a local failure (LF). We investigated image intensity histogram in imaging features to predict LF and local control (LC). Methods: Sixty-seven spinal tumors were treated with SBRT at our institution with scheduled follow-up MR T2-weighted (TR 3200–6600ms; TE 75-132ms) imaging. The LF group included 10 tumors with 8.7 months median follow-up, while the LC group had 11 tumors with 24.1 months median follow-up. The follow-up images were fused to the planning CT. Image intensity histograms of the GTV were calculated. Voxels in greater than 90% (V90), 80% (V80), and peak (Vpeak) of the histogram were grouped into sub-ROIs to determine the best feature histogram. The intensity of each sub-ROI was evaluated using the mean T2-weighted signal ratio (intensity in sub-ROI / intensity in normal vertebrae). An ROC curve in predicting LF for each sub-ROI was calculated to determine the best feature histogram parameter for LF prediction. Results: Mean T2-weighted signal ratio in the LF group was significantly higher than that in the LC group for all sub-ROIs (1.1±0.4 vs. 0.7±0.2, 1.2±0.4 vs. 0.8±0.2, 1.4±0.5 vs. 0.8±0.2, for V90, V80, and Vpeak, p=0.02, 0.02, and 0.002, respectively). The corresponding areas-under-curve (AUC) of ROC were 0.78, 0.80, and 0.87, p=0.02, 0.03, 0.004, respectively. No correlation was found between T2-weighted signal ratio in Vpeak and follow-up time (Pearson's ρ=0.15). Conclusion: Increased T2-weighted signal can be used to identify local failure while decreased signal indicates local control after spinal SBRT. By choosing the best histogram parameter (here the Vpeak), the AUC of the ROC can be substantially improved, which implies reliable prediction of LC and LF. These results are being further studied and validated with large multi-institutional data.

  14. Stress-related increases in risk taking and attentional failures predict earlier relapse to smoking in young adults: A pilot investigation.

    PubMed

    Schepis, Ty S; Tapscott, Brian E; Krishnan-Sarin, Suchitra

    2016-04-01

    Substantial evidence links greater impulsivity and stress exposure to poorer smoking cessation outcomes. Results from adolescents also indicate that stress-related change in risk taking can impede cessation attempts. We investigated the effects of stress-related change in impulsivity, risk taking, attention and nicotine withdrawal, and craving in young adult smokers on time to smoking relapse in a relapse analogue paradigm. Twenty-six young adult smokers (50% women; mean age: 20.9 ± 1.8) were exposed to a stress imagery session followed by a contingency management-based relapse analogue paradigm. Participants smoked at least 5 cigarettes daily, with a mean baseline carbon monoxide (CO) level of 13.7 (±5.1) ppm. Repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA) and paired t tests examined stress induction validity and Cox regressions of proportional hazards examined the effects of stress-related changes in nicotine withdrawal, nicotine craving, attention, impulsivity, and risk taking on time to relapse. While stress-related change in impulsivity, nicotine craving and withdrawal did not predict time to relapse (all ps > .10), greater stress-related increases in reaction time (RT) variability (p = .02) were predictive of shorter time to relapse, with trend-level findings for inattention and risk taking. Furthermore, changes in stress-related risk taking affected outcome in women more than in men, with a significant relationship between stress-related change in risk taking only in women (p = .026). Smoking cessation attempts in young adults may be adversely impacted by stress-related increases in risk taking and attentional disruption. Clinicians working with young adults attempting cessation may need to target these stress-related impairments by fostering more adaptive coping and resilience. (PsycINFO Database Record PMID:26901590

  15. Application of a model of plastic porous materials including void shape effects to the prediction of ductile failure under shear-dominated loadings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morin, Léo; Leblond, Jean-Baptiste; Tvergaard, Viggo

    2016-09-01

    An extension of Gurson's famous model (Gurson, 1977) of porous plastic solids, incorporating void shape effects, has recently been proposed by Madou and Leblond (Madou and Leblond, 2012a, 2012b, 2013; Madou et al., 2013). In this extension the voids are no longer modelled as spherical but ellipsoidal with three different axes, and changes of the magnitude and orientation of these axes are accounted for. The aim of this paper is to show that the new model is able to predict softening due essentially to such changes, in the absence of significant void growth. This is done in two steps. First, a numerical implementation of the model is proposed and incorporated into the SYSTUS® and ABAQUS® finite element programmes (through some freely available UMAT (Leblond, 2015) in the second case). Second, the implementation in SYSTUS® is used to simulate previous "numerical experiments" of Tvergaard and coworkers (Tvergaard, 2008, 2009, 2012, 2015a; Dahl et al., 2012; Nielsen et al., 2012) involving the shear loading of elementary porous cells, where softening due to changes of the void shape and orientation was very apparent. It is found that with a simple, heuristic modelling of the phenomenon of mesoscopic strain localization, the model is indeed able to reproduce the results of these numerical experiments, in contrast to Gurson's model disregarding void shape effects.

  16. [Use of BiPAP during weaning from mechanical ventilation in a patient with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and acute respiratory failure].

    PubMed

    Sakai, T; Shimada, M; Ishizaki, T; Nakai, T

    1997-08-01

    In a 65-year-old man with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and acute respiratory failure, bi-level positive airway pressure device (BiPAP) was used as part of weaning from mechanical ventilation. As an outpatient, he had had dyspnea of grade V (Hugh-Jones) and was hypercapnic (PaCO2 of 70 torr) and hypoxemic (PaO2 of 60 torr), while he was receiving oxygen at 2 L/min via nasal cannula. Acute respiratory failure developed due to pneumonia, and mechanical ventilation was begun. However, he could not be weaned with a standard weaning technique (T-piece). On the fifth day of mechanical ventilation, he was extubated and treatment with BiPAP was begun. He did not complain of dyspnea even though PaCO2 did not decrease, which indicates that BiPAP reduced the work of breathing. Use of BiPAP might make reintubation unnecessary when acute ventilatory failure develops soon after extubation in patients with COPD. PMID:9366166

  17. Light water reactor lower head failure analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Rempe, J.L.; Chavez, S.A.; Thinnes, G.L.

    1993-10-01

    This document presents the results from a US Nuclear Regulatory Commission-sponsored research program to investigate the mode and timing of vessel lower head failure. Major objectives of the analysis were to identify plausible failure mechanisms and to develop a method for determining which failure mode would occur first in different light water reactor designs and accident conditions. Failure mechanisms, such as tube ejection, tube rupture, global vessel failure, and localized vessel creep rupture, were studied. Newly developed models and existing models were applied to predict which failure mechanism would occur first in various severe accident scenarios. So that a broader range of conditions could be considered simultaneously, calculations relied heavily on models with closed-form or simplified numerical solution techniques. Finite element techniques-were employed for analytical model verification and examining more detailed phenomena. High-temperature creep and tensile data were obtained for predicting vessel and penetration structural response.

  18. Acute kidney failure

    MedlinePlus

    Kidney failure; Renal failure; Renal failure - acute; ARF; Kidney injury - acute ... There are many possible causes of kidney damage. They include: ... cholesterol (cholesterol emboli) Decreased blood flow due to very ...

  19. What Is Heart Failure?

    MedlinePlus

    ... page from the NHLBI on Twitter. What Is Heart Failure? Heart failure is a condition in which the heart can' ... force. Some people have both problems. The term "heart failure" doesn't mean that your heart has stopped ...

  20. Heart failure - medicines

    MedlinePlus

    CHF - medicines; Congestive heart failure - medicines; Cardiomyopathy - medicines; HF - medicines ... You will need to take most of your heart failure medicines every day. Some medicines are taken ...

  1. Heart failure prognostic model.

    PubMed

    Axente, L; Sinescu, C; Bazacliu, G

    2011-05-15

    Heart failure (HF) is a common, costly, disabling and deadly syndrome. Heart failure is a progressive disease characterized by high prevalence in society, significantly reducing physical and mental health, frequent hospitalization and high mortality (50% of the patients survive up to 4 years after the diagnosis, the annual mortality varying from 5% to 75%). The purpose of this study is to develop a prognostic model with easily obtainable variables for patients with heart failure. METHODS AND RESULTS. Our lot included 101 non-consecutive hospitalized patients with heart failure diagnosis. It included 49.5% women having the average age of 71.23 years (starting from 40 up to 91 years old) and the roughly estimated period for monitoring was 35.1 months (5-65 months). Survival data were available for all patients and the median survival duration was of 44.0 months. A large number of variables (demographic, etiologic, co morbidity, clinical, echocardiograph, ECG, laboratory and medication) were evaluated. We performed a complex statistical analysis, studying: survival curve, cumulative hazard, hazard function, lifetime distribution and density function, meaning residual life time, Ln S (t) vs. t and Ln(H) t vs. Ln (t). The Cox multiple regression model was used in order to determine the major factors that allow the forecasting survival and their regression coefficients: age (0.0369), systolic blood pressure (-0.0219), potassium (0.0570), sex (-0.3124) and the acute myocardial infarction (0.2662). DISCUSSION. Our model easily incorporates obtainable variables that may be available in any hospital, accurately predicting survival of the heart failure patients and enables risk stratification in a few hours after the patients' presentation. Our model is derived from a sample of patients hospitalized in an emergency department of cardiology, some with major life-altering co morbidities. The benefit of being aware of the prognosis of these patients with high risk is extremely

  2. Heart failure prognostic model

    PubMed Central

    Axente, L; Sinescu, C; Bazacliu, G

    2011-01-01

    Heart failure (HF) is a common, costly, disabling and deadly syndrome. Heart failure is a progressive disease characterized by high prevalence in society, significantly reducing physical and mental health, frequent hospitalization and high mortality (50% of the patients survive up to 4 years after the diagnosis, the annual mortality varying from 5% to 75%). The purpose of this study is to develop a prognostic model with easily obtainable variables for patients with heart failure. Methods and Results. Our lot included 101 non–consecutive hospitalized patients with heart failure diagnosis. It included 49,5% women having the average age of 71.23 years (starting from 40 up to 91 years old) and the roughly estimated period for monitoring was 35.1 months (5–65 months). Survival data were available for all patients and the median survival duration was of 44.0 months. A large number of variables (demographic, etiologic, co morbidity, clinical, echocardiograph, ECG, laboratory and medication) were evaluated. We performed a complex statistical analysis, studying: survival curve, cumulative hazard, hazard function, lifetime distribution and density function, meaning residual life time, Ln S (t) vs. t and Ln(H) t vs. Ln (t). The Cox multiple regression model was used in order to determine the major factors that allow the forecasting survival and their regression coefficients: age (0.0369), systolic blood pressure (–0.0219), potassium (0.0570), sex (–0.3124) and the acute myocardial infarction (0.2662). Discussion. Our model easily incorporates obtainable variables that may be available in any hospital, accurately predicting survival of the heart failure patients and enables risk stratification in a few hours after the patients' presentation. Our model is derived from a sample of patients hospitalized in an emergency department of cardiology, some with major life–altering co morbidities. The benefit of being aware of the prognosis of these patients with high risk is

  3. STATISTICAL MODELS FOR WATER MAIN FAILURES

    EPA Science Inventory

    A detailed statistical analysis of pipe break records from New Haven, Connecticut, and Cincinnati, Ohio, water distribution systems focussed on deriving predictive models for pipe failure probabilities at the individual pipe level. The statistical methodology of the proportional ...

  4. Predicting vibrational failure of flexible ducting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Henry, R. H.

    1971-01-01

    Technique applies to liquid or gas transfer through flexible ducting and proves valuable in high velocity fluid flow cases. Fluid mechanism responsible for free bellows vibrational excitation also causes flexible hose oscillation. Static pressure stress influences flexible ducting fatigue life and is considered separately.

  5. Steam generator tube failures

    SciTech Connect

    MacDonald, P.E.; Shah, V.N.; Ward, L.W.; Ellison, P.G.

    1996-04-01

    A review and summary of the available information on steam generator tubing failures and the impact of these failures on plant safety is presented. The following topics are covered: pressurized water reactor (PWR), Canadian deuterium uranium (CANDU) reactor, and Russian water moderated, water cooled energy reactor (VVER) steam generator degradation, PWR steam generator tube ruptures, the thermal-hydraulic response of a PWR plant with a faulted steam generator, the risk significance of steam generator tube rupture accidents, tubing inspection requirements and fitness-for-service criteria in various countries, and defect detection reliability and sizing accuracy. A significant number of steam generator tubes are defective and are removed from service or repaired each year. This wide spread damage has been caused by many diverse degradation mechanisms, some of which are difficult to detect and predict. In addition, spontaneous tube ruptures have occurred at the rate of about one every 2 years over the last 20 years, and incipient tube ruptures (tube failures usually identified with leak detection monitors just before rupture) have been occurring at the rate of about one per year. These ruptures have caused complex plant transients which have not always been easy for the reactor operators to control. Our analysis shows that if more than 15 tubes rupture during a main steam line break, the system response could lead to core melting. Although spontaneous and induced steam generator tube ruptures are small contributors to the total core damage frequency calculated in probabilistic risk assessments, they are risk significant because the radionuclides are likely to bypass the reactor containment building. The frequency of steam generator tube ruptures can be significantly reduced through appropriate and timely inspections and repairs or removal from service.

  6. Advanced Heart Failure

    MedlinePlus

    ... High Blood Pressure Tools & Resources Stroke More Advanced Heart Failure Updated:Oct 8,2015 When heart failure (HF) ... content was last reviewed on 04/06/2015. Heart Failure • Home • About Heart Failure • Causes and Risks for ...

  7. Copeptin in Heart Failure.

    PubMed

    Balling, Louise; Gustafsson, Finn

    2016-01-01

    Heart failure (HF) is one of the most common causes of hospitalization and mortality in the modern Western world and an increasing proportion of the population will be affected by HF in the future. Although HF management has improved quality of life and prognosis, mortality remains very high despite therapeutic options. Medical management consists of a neurohormonal blockade of an overly activated neurohormonal axis. No single marker has been able to predict or monitor HF with respect to disease progression, hospitalization, or mortality. New methods for diagnosis, monitoring therapy, and prognosis are warranted. Copeptin, a precursor of pre-provasopressin, is a new biomarker in HF with promising potential. Copeptin has been found to be elevated in both acute and chronic HF and is associated with prognosis. Copeptin, in combination with other biomarkers, could be a useful marker in the monitoring of disease severity and as a predictor of prognosis and survival in HF. PMID:26975969

  8. Postinjury multiple organ failure.

    PubMed

    Dewar, David; Moore, Frederick A; Moore, Ernest E; Balogh, Zsolt

    2009-09-01

    Postinjury multiple organ failure (MOF) became prevalent as the improvements in critical care during the 1970s made it possible to keep trauma patients alive with single organ injury. Enormous efforts invested in laboratory and clinical research made it possible to better understand the epidemiology and pathophysiology of the syndrome. This has translated to improved strategies in prediction, prevention and treatment of MOF. With changes in population demographics and injury mechanisms and improvements in trauma care, changes in the epidemiology of MOF are also becoming evident. Significant improvements in trauma patient management decreased the severity and mortality of MOF, but the syndrome still remains the most significant contributor of late postinjury mortality and intensive care unit resource utilisation. This review defines the essential MOF-related terminology, summarises the changing epidemiology of MOF, describes our current understanding of the pathophysiology, discusses the available strategies for prevention/treatment based on the identified independent predictors and provides future directions for research. PMID:19541301

  9. Acute Decompensated Heart Failure Update

    PubMed Central

    Teerlink, John R; Alburikan, Khalid; Metra, Marco; Rodgers, Jo E

    2015-01-01

    Acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) continues to increase in prevalence and is associated with substantial mortality and morbidity including frequent hospitalizations. The American Heart Association is predicting that more than eight million Americans will have heart failure by 2030 and that the total direct costs associated with the disease will rise from $21 billion in 2012 to $70 billion in 2030. The increase in the prevalence and cost of HF is primarily the result of shifting demographics and a growing population. Although many large, randomized, controlled clinical trials have been conducted in patients with chronic heart failure, it was not until recently that a growing number of studies began to address the management of ADHF. It is the intent of this review to update the clinician regarding the evaluation and optimal management of ADHF. PMID:24251454

  10. Can the material properties of regenerate bone be predicted with non-invasive methods of assessment? Exploring the correlation between dual X-ray absorptiometry and compression testing to failure in an animal model of distraction osteogenesis.

    PubMed

    Monsell, Fergal; Hughes, Andrew William; Turner, James; Bellemore, Michael C; Bilston, Lynne

    2014-04-01

    Evaluation of the material properties of regenerate bone is of fundamental importance to a successful outcome following distraction osteogenesis using an external fixator. Plain radiographs are in widespread use for assessment of alignment and the distraction gap but are unable to detect bone formation in the early stages of distraction osteogenesis and do not quantify accurately the structural properties of the regenerate. Dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is a widely available non-invasive imaging modality that, unlike X-ray, can be used to measure bone mineral content (BMC) and density quantitatively. In order to be useful as a clinical investigation; however, the structural two-dimensional geometry and density distributions assessed by DXA should reflect material properties such as modulus and also predict the structural mechanical properties of the regenerate bone formed. We explored the hypothesis that there is a relationship between DXA assessment of regenerate bone and structural mechanical properties in an animal model of distraction osteogenesis. Distraction osteogenesis was carried out on the tibial diaphysis of 41 male, 12 week old, New Zealand white rabbits as part of a larger study. Distraction started after a latent period of 24 h at a rate of 0.375 mm every 12 h and continued for 10-days, achieving average lengthening of 7.1 mm. Following an 18-day period of consolidation, the regenerate bone was subject to bone density measurements using a total body dual-energy X-ray densitometer. This produced measurement of BMC, bone mineral density (BMD) and volumetric bone mineral density (vBMD). The tibiae were then disarticulated and cleaned of soft tissue before loading in compression to failure using an Instron mechanical testing machine (Instron Corporation, Massachusetts USA). Using Spearman rank correlation and linear regression, there was a significant correlation between vBMD and the Modulus of Elasticity, Yield Stress and Failure Stress of the

  11. Failure analyses of composite bolted joints

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, D. W.; Gillespie, J. W.; York, J. L.; Pipes, R. B.

    1980-01-01

    The complex failure behavior exhibited by bolted joints of graphite epoxy (Hercules AS/3501) was investigated for the net tension, bearing and shearout failure modes using combined analytical and experimental techniques. Plane stress, linear elastic, finite element methods were employed to determine the two dimensional state of stress resulting from a loaded hole in a finite width, semiinfinite strip. The stresses predicted by the finite element method were verified by experiment to lend credence to the analysis. The influence of joint geometric parameters on the state of stress and resultant strength of the joint was also studied. The resulting functional relationships found to exist between bolted joint strength and the geometric parameters, were applied in the formulation of semiempirical strength models for the basic failure modes. A point stress failure criterion was successfully applied as the failure criterion for the net tension and shearout failure modes.

  12. Failure analysis of high performance ballistic fibers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spatola, Jennifer S.

    High performance fibers have a high tensile strength and modulus, good wear resistance, and a low density, making them ideal for applications in ballistic impact resistance, such as body armor. However, the observed ballistic performance of these fibers is much lower than the predicted values. Since the predictions assume only tensile stress failure, it is safe to assume that the stress state is affecting fiber performance. The purpose of this research was to determine if there are failure mode changes in the fiber fracture when transversely loaded by indenters of different shapes. An experimental design mimicking transverse impact was used to determine any such effects. Three different indenters were used: round, FSP, and razor blade. The indenter height was changed to change the angle of failure tested. Five high performance fibers were examined: KevlarRTM KM2, SpectraRTM 130d, DyneemaRTM SK-62 and SK-76, and ZylonRTM 555. Failed fibers were analyzed using an SEM to determine failure mechanisms. The results show that the round and razor blade indenters produced a constant failure strain, as well as failure mechanisms independent of testing angle. The FSP indenter produced a decrease in failure strain as the angle increased. Fibrillation was the dominant failure mechanism at all angles for the round indenter, while through thickness shearing was the failure mechanism for the razor blade. The FSP indenter showed a transition from fibrillation at low angles to through thickness shearing at high angles, indicating that the round and razor blade indenters are extreme cases of the FSP indenter. The failure mechanisms observed with the FSP indenter at various angles correlated with the experimental strain data obtained during fiber testing. This indicates that geometry of the indenter tip in compression is a contributing factor in lowering the failure strain of the high performance fibers. TEM analysis of the fiber failure mechanisms was also attempted, though without

  13. Telemonitoring in chronic heart failure.

    PubMed

    Hasan, Ayesha; Paul, Vince

    2011-06-01

    Clinical management of refractory heart failure remains challenging, with a high rate of rehospitalizations despite advances in medical and device therapy. Care can be provided in person, via telehomecare (by telephone), or telemonitoring, which involves wireless technology for remote follow-up. Telemonitoring wirelessly transmits parameters such as weight, heart rate, or blood pressure for review by health-care professionals. Cardiac implantable devices (defibrillators and cardiac resynchronization therapy) also transmit continually interrogated physiological data, such as heart rate variability or intrathoracic impedance, which may be of value to predict patients at greater risk of hospitalization for heart failure. The use of remote monitoring techniques facilitates a rapid and regular review of such data by health-care workers as part of a heart failure management programme. Current evidence supports the feasibility of such an approach but routinely assessed parameters have been shown not to impact patient outcomes. Devices that directly assess cardiac haemodynamic status through invasive measurement of pressures are currently under investigation and could potentially increase the sensitivity and specificity of predicting heart failure events. The current evidence for telemonitoring and remote monitoring, including implantable haemodynamic devices, will be reviewed. PMID:21289040

  14. Failure to thrive: an update.

    PubMed

    Cole, Sarah Z; Lanham, Jason S

    2011-04-01

    Failure to thrive in childhood is a state of undernutrition due to inadequate caloric intake, inadequate caloric absorption, or excessive caloric expenditure. In the United States, it is seen in 5 to 10 percent of children in primary care settings. Although failure to thrive is often defined as a weight for age that falls below the 5th percentile on multiple occasions or weight deceleration that crosses two major percentile lines on a growth chart, use of any single indicator has a low positive predictive value. Most cases of failure to thrive involve inadequate caloric intake caused by behavioral or psychosocial issues. The most important part of the outpatient evaluation is obtaining an accurate account of a child's eating habits and caloric intake. Routine laboratory testing rarely identifies a cause and is not generally recommended. Reasons to hospitalize a child for further evaluation include failure of outpatient management, suspicion of abuse or neglect, or severe psychosocial impairment of the caregiver. A multidisciplinary approach to treatment, including home nursing visits and nutritional counseling, has been shown to improve weight gain, parent-child relationships, and cognitive development. The long-term effects of failure to thrive on cognitive development and future academic performance are unclear. PMID:21524049

  15. Failure Assessment Diagram for Brazed 304 Stainless Steel Joints

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Flom, Yory

    2011-01-01

    Interaction equations were proposed earlier to predict failure in Albemet 162 brazed joints. Present study demonstrates that the same interaction equations can be used for lower bound estimate of the failure criterion in 304 stainless steel joints brazed with silver-based filler metals as well as for construction of the Failure Assessment Diagrams (FAD).

  16. Intravenous colistin-induced acute respiratory failure: A case report and a review of literature

    PubMed Central

    Shrestha, Amardeep; Soriano, Sheryll Mae; Song, Mingchen; Chihara, Shingo

    2014-01-01

    The emergence of multi-drug-resistant gram negative bacillary infections has regained popularity of ancient drugs such as polymyxins. We report a case of acute respiratory failure induced by use of intravenous colistimethate, which is one of the forms of polymyxin. The patient is a 31 year old female with paraplegia due to spina bifida who underwent excisional debridement of large lumbosacral decubitus ulcer with osteomyelitis infected with pan-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa and MRSA. Six days after initiation of intravenous colistimethate and vancomycin, she developed acute respiratory failure requiring mechanical ventilation. Pan-culture was negative including a chest radiograph. V/Q scan showed low probability for pulmonary embolism. Echocardiogram showed normal right ventricle with no strain or pulmonary hypertension. Colistimethate was discontinued. Within 24 hours, she was extubated. In the early years after introduction of polymyxin, there were several reports of acute respiratory paralysis. The mechanism is thought to be noncompetitive myoneuronal presynaptic blockade of acetylcholine release. Though a direct causal relationship for respiratory failure is often difficult to establish in current era with multiple co morbidities, the timeframe of apnea, acuity of onset as well as rapid recovery in our case clearly point out the causal relationship. In addition, our patient also developed acute renal failure, presumably due to colistimethate induced nephrotoxicity, a possible contributing factor for her acute respiratory failure. In summary, colistimethate can induce acute neurotoxicity including respiratory muscular weakness and acute respiratory failure. Clinicians should consider its toxicity in the differential diagnosis of acute respiratory failure especially in critically ill patients. PMID:25337492

  17. Intravenous colistin-induced acute respiratory failure: A case report and a review of literature.

    PubMed

    Shrestha, Amardeep; Soriano, Sheryll Mae; Song, Mingchen; Chihara, Shingo

    2014-07-01

    The emergence of multi-drug-resistant gram negative bacillary infections has regained popularity of ancient drugs such as polymyxins. We report a case of acute respiratory failure induced by use of intravenous colistimethate, which is one of the forms of polymyxin. The patient is a 31 year old female with paraplegia due to spina bifida who underwent excisional debridement of large lumbosacral decubitus ulcer with osteomyelitis infected with pan-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa and MRSA. Six days after initiation of intravenous colistimethate and vancomycin, she developed acute respiratory failure requiring mechanical ventilation. Pan-culture was negative including a chest radiograph. V/Q scan showed low probability for pulmonary embolism. Echocardiogram showed normal right ventricle with no strain or pulmonary hypertension. Colistimethate was discontinued. Within 24 hours, she was extubated. In the early years after introduction of polymyxin, there were several reports of acute respiratory paralysis. The mechanism is thought to be noncompetitive myoneuronal presynaptic blockade of acetylcholine release. Though a direct causal relationship for respiratory failure is often difficult to establish in current era with multiple co morbidities, the timeframe of apnea, acuity of onset as well as rapid recovery in our case clearly point out the causal relationship. In addition, our patient also developed acute renal failure, presumably due to colistimethate induced nephrotoxicity, a possible contributing factor for her acute respiratory failure. In summary, colistimethate can induce acute neurotoxicity including respiratory muscular weakness and acute respiratory failure. Clinicians should consider its toxicity in the differential diagnosis of acute respiratory failure especially in critically ill patients. PMID:25337492

  18. Strength and failure models for epoxy mortar polymer concrete materials

    SciTech Connect

    Salami, M.R.; Zhao, S.

    1995-06-01

    Since the polymer concrete materials are used in construction, there is a need for developing a fundamental failure and constitutive model for predicting material behavior. The present research is undertaken as an initial step toward developing a fundamental failure and constitutive model for polymer concrete materials, as well as providing benchmark data on the strength and failure characteristics of material specimens for future work. The failure model will be developed based on introducing a failure function. This model will predict the changes in constitutive properties and resistance values in aggressive environments.

  19. Progressive Failure Analysis of Composite Stiffened Panels

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bednarcyk, Brett A.; Yarrington, Phillip W.; Collier, Craig S.; Arnold, Steven M.

    2006-01-01

    A new progressive failure analysis capability for stiffened composite panels has been developed based on the combination of the HyperSizer stiffened panel design/analysis/optimization software with the Micromechanics Analysis Code with Generalized Method of Cells (MAC/GMC). MAC/GMC discretizes a composite material s microstructure into a number of subvolumes and solves for the stress and strain state in each while providing the homogenized composite properties as well. As a result, local failure criteria may be employed to predict local subvolume failure and the effects of these local failures on the overall composite response. When combined with HyperSizer, MAC/GMC is employed to represent the ply level composite material response within the laminates that constitute a stiffened panel. The effects of local subvolume failures can then be tracked as loading on the stiffened panel progresses. Sample progressive failure results are presented at both the composite laminate and the composite stiffened panel levels. Deformation and failure model predictions are compared with experimental data from the World Wide Failure Exercise for AS4/3501-6 graphite/epoxy laminates.

  20. Earthquake prediction

    SciTech Connect

    Ma, Z.; Fu, Z.; Zhang, Y.; Wang, C.; Zhang, G.; Liu, D.

    1989-01-01

    Mainland China is situated at the eastern edge of the Eurasian seismic system and is the largest intra-continental region of shallow strong earthquakes in the world. Based on nine earthquakes with magnitudes ranging between 7.0 and 7.9, the book provides observational data and discusses successes and failures of earthquake prediction. Derived from individual earthquakes, observations of various phenomena and seismic activities occurring before and after earthquakes, led to the establishment of some general characteristics valid for earthquake prediction.

  1. Post Buckling Progressive Failure Analysis of Composite Laminated Stiffened Panels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anyfantis, Konstantinos N.; Tsouvalis, Nicholas G.

    2012-06-01

    The present work deals with the numerical prediction of the post buckling progressive and final failure response of stiffened composite panels based on structural nonlinear finite element methods. For this purpose, a progressive failure model (PFM) is developed and applied to predict the behaviour of an experimentally tested blade-stiffened panel found in the literature. Failure initiation and propagation is calculated, owing to the accumulation of the intralaminar failure modes induced in fibre reinforced composite materials. Hashin failure criteria have been employed in order to address the fiber and matrix failure modes in compression and tension. On the other hand, the Tsai-Wu failure criterion has been utilized for addressing shear failure. Failure detection is followed with the introduction of corresponding material degradation rules depending on the individual failure mechanisms. Failure initiation and failure propagation as well as the post buckling ultimate attained load have been numerically evaluated. Final failure behaviour of the simulated stiffened panel is due to sudden global failure, as concluded from comparisons between numerical and experimental results being in good agreement.

  2. Evaluation of a Progressive Failure Analysis Methodology for Laminated Composite Structures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sleight, David W.; Knight, Norman F., Jr.; Wang, John T.

    1997-01-01

    A progressive failure analysis methodology has been developed for predicting the nonlinear response and failure of laminated composite structures. The progressive failure analysis uses C plate and shell elements based on classical lamination theory to calculate the in-plane stresses. Several failure criteria, including the maximum strain criterion, Hashin's criterion, and Christensen's criterion, are used to predict the failure mechanisms. The progressive failure analysis model is implemented into a general purpose finite element code and can predict the damage and response of laminated composite structures from initial loading to final failure.

  3. Heart failure - home monitoring

    MedlinePlus

    ... this page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/patientinstructions/000113.htm Heart failure - home monitoring To use the sharing features on ... body and the symptoms that tell you your heart failure is getting worse will help you stay healthier ...

  4. Failures in psychodynamic psychotherapy.

    PubMed

    Gold, Jerry; Stricker, George

    2011-11-01

    This article addresses the issue of failures in psychodynamic psychotherapy. Drawing on the clinical and research literatures, and utilizing our clinical experiences, we first describe and define criteria for success and failure in treatment. We then review five factors that can lead to failure: client factors, therapist factors, technical factors, relationship factors, and environmental factors. We illustrate our presentation with a case example, and conclude by discussing ways in which the likelihood of failures in psychodynamic treatment can be lowered. PMID:21935934

  5. Ammonia tank failure

    SciTech Connect

    Sweat, M.E.

    1983-04-01

    An ammonia tank failure at Hawkeye Chemical of Clinton, Iowa is discussed. The tank was a double-wall, 27,000 metric-ton tank built in 1968 and commissioned in December 1969. The paper presented covers the cause of the failure, repair, and procedural changes made to prevent recurrence of the failure. (JMT)

  6. In Support of Failure

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carr, Allison

    2013-01-01

    In this essay, I propose a concerted effort to begin devising a theory and pedagogy of failure. I review the discourse of failure in Western culture as well as in composition pedagogy, ultimately suggesting that failure is not simply a judgement or indication of rank but is a relational, affect-bearing concept with tremendous relevance to…

  7. Sensor-Failure Simulator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Melcher, Kevin J.; Delaat, John C.; Merrill, Walter C.; Oberle, Lawrence G.; Sadler, Gerald G.

    1988-01-01

    Outputs of defective sensors simulated for studies of reliability of control systems. Real-time sensor-failure simulator (SFS) designed and built for use with Advance Detection, Isolation, and Accommodation (ADIA) program. Equipment consists of IBM PC/XT computer and associated analog circuitry. User defines failure scenarios to determine which sensor signals fail and method(s) used to simulate failure.

  8. Heart failure - palliative care

    MedlinePlus

    Chronic heart failure very often gets worse over time. Many people who have heart failure die of ... failure to take in enough calories and nutrients. Wasting of muscles and weight loss are part of the natural disease process. It can help to eat several small ...

  9. Forecasting the failure of heterogeneous magmas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vasseur, J.; Wadsworth, F. B.; Lavallée, Y.; Bell, A. F.; Main, I. G.; Dingwell, D. B.

    2015-12-01

    Eruption prediction is a long-sought-after goal of volcanology. Yet applying existing techniques retrospectively (hindcasting), we fail to predict events more often than we success. As much of the seismicity associated with intermediate to silicic volcanic eruptions comes from the brittle response of the ascending magma itself, we clearly require a good understanding of the parameters that control the ability to forecast magma failure itself. Here, we present suites of controlled experiments at magmatic temperatures using a range of synthetic magmas to investigate the control of microstructures on the efficacy of forecast models for material failure. We find that the failure of magmas with very little microstructural heterogeneity - such as melts - is very challenging to predict; whereas, the failure of very heterogeneous magmas is always well-predicted. To shed further light on this issue, we provide a scaling law based on the relationship between the microstructural heterogeneity in a magma and the error in the prediction of its failure time. We propose this method be used to elucidate the variable success rate of predicting volcanic predictions. We discuss this scaling in the context of the birth, life and death of structural heterogeneity during magma ascent with specific emphasis on obsidian-forming eruptions such as Chaitèn, 2008. During such eruptions, the repetitive creation and destruction of fractures filled with granular magma, which are thought to be the in situ remnants of seismogenic fracturing itself, are expressions of the life-cycle of heterogeneity in an otherwise coherent, melt-rich magma. We conclude that the next generation of failure forecast tools available to monitoring teams should incorporate some acknowledgment of the magma microstructure and not be solely based on the geophysical signals prior to eruption.

  10. Failure Assessment Diagram for Titanium Brazed Joints

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Flom, Yury; Jones, Justin S.; Powell, Mollie M.; Puckett, David F.

    2011-01-01

    The interaction equation was used to predict failure in Ti-4V-6Al joints brazed with Al 1100 filler metal. The joints used in this study were geometrically similar to the joints in the brazed beryllium metering structure considered for the ATLAS telescope. This study confirmed that the interaction equation R(sub sigma) + R(sub Tau) = 1, where R(sub sigma) and R(sub Tau)are normal and shear stress ratios, can be used as conservative lower bound estimate of the failure criterion in ATLAS brazed joints as well as for construction of the Failure Assessment Diagram (FAD).

  11. Failure risk assessment by analysis and testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moore, N.; Ebbeler, D.; Creager, M.

    1992-01-01

    The sources of information on which to base an evaluation of reliability or failure risk of an aerospace flight system are (1) experience from tests and flights and (2) engineering analysis. It is rarely feasible to establish high reliability at high confidence by testing aerospace systems or components. Moreover, failure prediction by conventional, deterministic methods of engineering analysis can become arbitrary and subject to serious misinterpretation when uncertain or approximate information is used to establish analysis parameter values and to calibrate the accuracy of engineering models. The limitations of testing to evaluate failure risk are discussed, and a statistical approach which incorporates both engineering analysis and testing is presented.

  12. The Predictable Failure of Educational Reform: Can We Change Course before It's Too Late? The Jossey-Bass Education Series and the Jossey-Bass Social and Behavioral Science Series.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sarason, Seymour B.

    Schools have been intractable to change and the attainment of goals set by reformers. A major failure has been the inability of reformers to confront this intractability. As a result, each new wave of reform learns nothing from earlier efforts and comes up with recommendations that have failed in the past. Nine chapters explore why reform efforts…

  13. Failure to Achieve a PSA Level {<=}1 ng/mL After Neoadjuvant LHRHA Therapy Predicts for Lower Biochemical Control Rate and Overall Survival in Localized Prostate Cancer Treated With Radiotherapy

    SciTech Connect

    Mitchell, Darren M. McAleese, Jonathan; Park, Richard M.; Stewart, David P.; Stranex, Stephen; Eakin, Ruth L.; Houston, Russell F.; O'Sullivan, Joe M.

    2007-12-01

    Purpose: To investigate whether failure to suppress the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level to {<=}1 ng/mL after {>=}2 months of neoadjuvant luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone agonist therapy in patients scheduled to undergo external beam radiotherapy for localized prostate carcinoma is associated with reduced biochemical failure-free survival. Methods and Materials: A retrospective case note review of consecutive patients with intermediate- or high-risk localized prostate cancer treated between January 2001 and December 2002 with neoadjuvant hormonal deprivation therapy, followed by concurrent hormonal therapy and radiotherapy was performed. Patient data were divided for analysis according to whether the PSA level in Week 1 of radiotherapy was {<=}1.0 ng/mL. Biochemical failure was determined using the American Society for Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology (Phoenix) definition. Results: A total of 119 patients were identified. The PSA level after neoadjuvant hormonal deprivation therapy was {<=}1 ng/mL in 67 patients and >1 ng/mL in 52. At a median follow-up of 49 months, the 4-year actuarial biochemical failure-free survival rate was 84% vs. 60% (p = 0.0016) in favor of the patients with a PSA level after neoadjuvant hormonal deprivation therapy of {<=}1 ng/mL. The overall survival rate was 94% vs. 77.5% (p = 0.0045), and the disease-specific survival rate at 4 years was 98.5% vs. 82.5%. Conclusions: The results of our study have shown that patients with a PSA level >1 ng/mL at the beginning of external beam radiotherapy after {>=}2 months of neoadjuvant luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone agonist therapy have a significantly greater rate of biochemical failure and lower survival rate compared with those with a PSA level of {<=}1 ng/mL. Patients without adequate PSA suppression should be considered a higher risk group and considered for dose escalation or the use of novel treatments.

  14. Birth control failure.

    PubMed

    Sophocles, A M

    1986-10-01

    Birth control failure usually results from the incorrect or inconsistent use of contraceptives. By providing anticipatory counseling, based on an understanding of the reasons for birth control failure, family physicians can help curtail the current epidemic of unwanted pregnancies. PMID:3766356

  15. Failure combination method

    SciTech Connect

    Hedin, F.; Le Coguiec, A.; Le Floch, C.; Llory, M.; Villemeur, A.

    1981-01-01

    The method described in this paper is an inductive method for combining failures (called the Failure Combination Method (FCM)). It is based on a preliminary analysis of the systems performed with an FMEA. As a study has been undertaken to test the method, the organization of the study as well as its first results from a methodological point of view are stressed. 8 refs.

  16. Ampoule Failure System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Watring, Dale A. (Inventor); Johnson, Martin L. (Inventor)

    1996-01-01

    An ampoule failure system for use in material processing furnaces comprising a containment cartridge and an ampoule failure sensor. The containment cartridge contains an ampoule of toxic material therein and is positioned within a furnace for processing. An ampoule failure probe is positioned in the containment cartridge adjacent the ampoule for detecting a potential harmful release of toxic material therefrom during processing. The failure probe is spaced a predetermined distance from the ampoule and is chemically chosen so as to undergo a timely chemical reaction with the toxic material upon the harmful release thereof. The ampoule failure system further comprises a data acquisition system which is positioned externally of the furnace and is electrically connected to the ampoule failure probe so as to form a communicating electrical circuit. The data acquisition system includes an automatic shutdown device for shutting down the furnace upon the harmful release of toxic material. It also includes a resistance measuring device for measuring the resistance of the failure probe during processing. The chemical reaction causes a step increase in resistance of the failure probe whereupon the automatic shutdown device will responsively shut down the furnace.

  17. Modeling Pathologies of Diastolic and Systolic Heart Failure.

    PubMed

    Genet, M; Lee, L C; Baillargeon, B; Guccione, J M; Kuhl, E

    2016-01-01

    Chronic heart failure is a medical condition that involves structural and functional changes of the heart and a progressive reduction in cardiac output. Heart failure is classified into two categories: diastolic heart failure, a thickening of the ventricular wall associated with impaired filling; and systolic heart failure, a dilation of the ventricles associated with reduced pump function. In theory, the pathophysiology of heart failure is well understood. In practice, however, heart failure is highly sensitive to cardiac microstructure, geometry, and loading. This makes it virtually impossible to predict the time line of heart failure for a diseased individual. Here we show that computational modeling allows us to integrate knowledge from different scales to create an individualized model for cardiac growth and remodeling during chronic heart failure. Our model naturally connects molecular events of parallel and serial sarcomere deposition with cellular phenomena of myofibrillogenesis and sarcomerogenesis to whole organ function. Our simulations predict chronic alterations in wall thickness, chamber size, and cardiac geometry, which agree favorably with the clinical observations in patients with diastolic and systolic heart failure. In contrast to existing single- or bi-ventricular models, our new four-chamber model can also predict characteristic secondary effects including papillary muscle dislocation, annular dilation, regurgitant flow, and outflow obstruction. Our prototype study suggests that computational modeling provides a patient-specific window into the progression of heart failure with a view towards personalized treatment planning. PMID:26043672

  18. Heterogeneity: The key to failure forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vasseur, Jérémie; Wadsworth, Fabian B.; Lavallée, Yan; Bell, Andrew F.; Main, Ian G.; Dingwell, Donald B.

    2015-08-01

    Elastic waves are generated when brittle materials are subjected to increasing strain. Their number and energy increase non-linearly, ending in a system-sized catastrophic failure event. Accelerating rates of geophysical signals (e.g., seismicity and deformation) preceding large-scale dynamic failure can serve as proxies for damage accumulation in the Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Here we test the hypothesis that the style and mechanisms of deformation, and the accuracy of the FFM, are both tightly controlled by the degree of microstructural heterogeneity of the material under stress. We generate a suite of synthetic samples with variable heterogeneity, controlled by the gas volume fraction. We experimentally demonstrate that the accuracy of failure prediction increases drastically with the degree of material heterogeneity. These results have significant implications in a broad range of material-based disciplines for which failure forecasting is of central importance. In particular, the FFM has been used with only variable success to forecast failure scenarios both in the field (volcanic eruptions and landslides) and in the laboratory (rock and magma failure). Our results show that this variability may be explained, and the reliability and accuracy of forecast quantified significantly improved, by accounting for material heterogeneity as a first-order control on forecasting power.

  19. Heterogeneity: The key to failure forecasting.

    PubMed

    Vasseur, Jérémie; Wadsworth, Fabian B; Lavallée, Yan; Bell, Andrew F; Main, Ian G; Dingwell, Donald B

    2015-01-01

    Elastic waves are generated when brittle materials are subjected to increasing strain. Their number and energy increase non-linearly, ending in a system-sized catastrophic failure event. Accelerating rates of geophysical signals (e.g., seismicity and deformation) preceding large-scale dynamic failure can serve as proxies for damage accumulation in the Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Here we test the hypothesis that the style and mechanisms of deformation, and the accuracy of the FFM, are both tightly controlled by the degree of microstructural heterogeneity of the material under stress. We generate a suite of synthetic samples with variable heterogeneity, controlled by the gas volume fraction. We experimentally demonstrate that the accuracy of failure prediction increases drastically with the degree of material heterogeneity. These results have significant implications in a broad range of material-based disciplines for which failure forecasting is of central importance. In particular, the FFM has been used with only variable success to forecast failure scenarios both in the field (volcanic eruptions and landslides) and in the laboratory (rock and magma failure). Our results show that this variability may be explained, and the reliability and accuracy of forecast quantified significantly improved, by accounting for material heterogeneity as a first-order control on forecasting power. PMID:26307196

  20. Heterogeneity: The key to failure forecasting

    PubMed Central

    Vasseur, Jérémie; Wadsworth, Fabian B.; Lavallée, Yan; Bell, Andrew F.; Main, Ian G.; Dingwell, Donald B.

    2015-01-01

    Elastic waves are generated when brittle materials are subjected to increasing strain. Their number and energy increase non-linearly, ending in a system-sized catastrophic failure event. Accelerating rates of geophysical signals (e.g., seismicity and deformation) preceding large-scale dynamic failure can serve as proxies for damage accumulation in the Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Here we test the hypothesis that the style and mechanisms of deformation, and the accuracy of the FFM, are both tightly controlled by the degree of microstructural heterogeneity of the material under stress. We generate a suite of synthetic samples with variable heterogeneity, controlled by the gas volume fraction. We experimentally demonstrate that the accuracy of failure prediction increases drastically with the degree of material heterogeneity. These results have significant implications in a broad range of material-based disciplines for which failure forecasting is of central importance. In particular, the FFM has been used with only variable success to forecast failure scenarios both in the field (volcanic eruptions and landslides) and in the laboratory (rock and magma failure). Our results show that this variability may be explained, and the reliability and accuracy of forecast quantified significantly improved, by accounting for material heterogeneity as a first-order control on forecasting power. PMID:26307196

  1. Modelling early failures in Space Station Freedom

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Navard, Sharon E.

    1993-01-01

    A major problem encountered in planning for Space Station Freedom is the amount of maintenance that will be required. To predict the failure rates of components and systems aboard Space Station Freedom, the logical approach is to use data obtained from previously flown spacecraft. In order to determine the mechanisms that are driving the failures, models can be proposed, and then checked to see if they adequately fit the observed failure data obtained from a large variety of satellites. For this particular study, failure data and truncation times were available for satellites launched between 1976 and 1984; no data past 1984 was available. The study was limited to electrical subsystems and assemblies, which were studied to determine if they followed a model resulting from a mixture of exponential distributions.

  2. Compression failure of angle-ply laminates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Peel, Larry D.; Hyer, Michael W.; Shuart, Mark J.

    1991-01-01

    The present work deals with modes and mechanisms of failure in compression of angle-ply laminates. Experimental results were obtained from 42 angle-ply IM7/8551-7a specimens with a lay-up of ((plus or minus theta)/(plus or minus theta)) sub 6s where theta, the off-axis angle, ranged from 0 degrees to 90 degrees. The results showed four failure modes, these modes being a function of off-axis angle. Failure modes include fiber compression, inplane transverse tension, inplane shear, and inplane transverse compression. Excessive interlaminar shear strain was also considered as an important mode of failure. At low off-axis angles, experimentally observed values were considerably lower than published strengths. It was determined that laminate imperfections in the form of layer waviness could be a major factor in reducing compression strength. Previously developed linear buckling and geometrically nonlinear theories were used, with modifications and enhancements, to examine the influence of layer waviness on compression response. The wavy layer is described by a wave amplitude and a wave length. Linear elastic stress-strain response is assumed. The geometrically nonlinear theory, in conjunction with the maximum stress failure criterion, was used to predict compression failure and failure modes for the angle-ply laminates. A range of wave length and amplitudes were used. It was found that for 0 less than or equal to theta less than or equal to 15 degrees failure was most likely due to fiber compression. For 15 degrees less than theta less than or equal to 35 degrees, failure was most likely due to inplane transverse tension. For 35 degrees less than theta less than or equal to 70 degrees, failure was most likely due to inplane shear. For theta less than 70 degrees, failure was most likely due to inplane transverse compression. The fiber compression and transverse tension failure modes depended more heavily on wave length than on wave amplitude. Thus using a single

  3. Micromechanics-Based Progressive Failure Analysis of Composite Laminates Using Different Constituent Failure Theories

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moncada, Albert M.; Chattopadhyay, Aditi; Bednarcyk, Brett A.; Arnold, Steven M.

    2008-01-01

    Predicting failure in a composite can be done with ply level mechanisms and/or micro level mechanisms. This paper uses the Generalized Method of Cells and High-Fidelity Generalized Method of Cells micromechanics theories, coupled with classical lamination theory, as implemented within NASA's Micromechanics Analysis Code with Generalized Method of Cells. The code is able to implement different failure theories on the level of both the fiber and the matrix constituents within a laminate. A comparison is made among maximum stress, maximum strain, Tsai-Hill, and Tsai-Wu failure theories. To verify the failure theories the Worldwide Failure Exercise (WWFE) experiments have been used. The WWFE is a comprehensive study that covers a wide range of polymer matrix composite laminates. The numerical results indicate good correlation with the experimental results for most of the composite layups, but also point to the need for more accurate resin damage progression models.

  4. Microseismic Signature of Magma Failure: Testing Failure Forecast in Heterogeneous Material

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vasseur, J.; Lavallee, Y.; Hess, K.; Wassermann, J. M.; Dingwell, D. B.

    2012-12-01

    Volcanoes exhibit a range of seismic precursors prior to eruptions. This range of signals derive from different processes, which if quantified, may tell us when and how the volcano will erupt: effusively or explosively. This quantification can be performed in laboratory. Here we investigated the signals associated with the deformation and failure of single-phase silicate liquids compare to mutli-phase magmas containing pores and crystals as heterogeneities. For the past decades, magmas have been simplified as viscoelastic fluids with grossly predictable failure, following an analysis of the stress and strain rate conditions in volcanic conduits. Yet it is clear that the way magmas fail is not unique and evidences increasingly illustrate the role of heterogeneities in the process of magmatic fragmentation. In such multi-phase magmas, failure cannot be predicted using current rheological laws. Microseismicity, as detected in the laboratory by analogous Acoustic Emission (AE), can be used to monitor fracture initiation and propagation, and thus provides invaluable information to characterise the process of brittle failure underlying explosive eruptions. Tri-axial press experiments on different synthetised and natural glass samples have been performed to investigate the acoustic signature of failure. We observed that the failure of single-phase liquids occurs without much strain and is preceded by the constant nucleation, propagation and coalescence of cracks as demonstrated by the monitored AE. In contrast, the failure of multi-phase magmas depends on the applied stress and is strain dependent. The path dependence of magma failure is nonetheless accompanied by supra exponential acceleration in released AEs. Analysis of the released AEs following material Failure Forecast Method (FFM) suggests that the predicability of failure is enhanced by the presence of heterogeneities in magmas. We discuss our observations in terms of volcanic scenarios.

  5. Student Drops and Failure in Principles Courses

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bosshardt, William

    2004-01-01

    Many studies have identified factors that contribute to success in economics principles courses, but few have examined the causes and effects of student drops and failure. The author follows 239 students through their economic principles course and tracks the students in the year after the course. The author constructs a model predicting student…

  6. Buckling failures in insect exoskeletons.

    PubMed

    Parle, Eoin; Herbaj, Simona; Sheils, Fiona; Larmon, Hannah; Taylor, David

    2016-02-01

    Thin walled tubes are often used for load-bearing structures, in nature and in engineering, because they offer good resistance to bending and torsion at relatively low weight. However, when loaded in bending they are prone to failure by buckling. It is difficult to predict the loading conditions which cause buckling, especially for tubes whose cross sections are not simple shapes. Insights into buckling prevention might be gained by studying this phenomenon in the exoskeletons of insects and other arthropods. We investigated the leg segments (tibiae) of five different insects: the locust (Schistocerca gergaria), American cockroach (Periplaneta americana), death's head cockroach (Blaberus discoidalis), stick insect (Parapachymorpha zomproi) and bumblebee (Bombus terrestris audax). These were tested to failure in cantilever bending and modelled using finite element analysis (FEA). The tibiae of the locust and the cockroaches were found to be approximately circular in shape. Their buckling loads were well predicted by linear elastic FEA, and also by one of the analytical solutions available in the literature for elastic buckling. The legs of the stick insect are also circular in cross section but have several prominent longitudinal ridges. We hypothesised that these ridges might protect the legs against buckling but we found that this was not the case: the loads necessary for elastic buckling were not reached in practice because yield occurred in the material, causing plastic buckling. The legs of bees have a non-circular cross section due to a pollen-carrying feature (the corbicula). We found that this did not significantly affect their resistance to buckling. Our results imply that buckling is the dominant failure mode in the tibia of insects; it likely to be a significant consideration for other arthropods and any organisms with stiff exoskeletons. The interactions displayed here between material properties and cross sectional geometry may provide insights for the

  7. Acute Lung Failure

    PubMed Central

    Mac Sweeney, Rob; McAuley, Daniel F.; Matthay, Michael A.

    2013-01-01

    Lung failure is the most common organ failure seen in the intensive care unit. The pathogenesis of acute respiratory failure (ARF) can be classified as (1) neuromuscular in origin, (2) secondary to acute and chronic obstructive airway diseases, (3) alveolar processes such as cardiogenic and noncardiogenic pulmonary edema and pneumonia, and (4) vascular diseases such as acute or chronic pulmonary embolism. This article reviews the more common causes of ARF from each group, including the pathological mechanisms and the principles of critical care management, focusing on the supportive, specific, and adjunctive therapies for each condition. PMID:21989697

  8. Damage mechanics - failure modes

    SciTech Connect

    Krajcinovic, D.; Vujosevic, M.

    1996-12-31

    The present study summarizes the results of the DOE sponsored research program focused on the brittle failure of solids with disordered microstructure. The failure is related to the stochastic processes on the microstructural scale; namely, the nucleation and growth of microcracks. The intrinsic failure modes, such as the percolation, localization and creep rupture, are studied by emphasizing the effect of the micro-structural disorder. A rich spectrum of physical phenomena and new concepts that emerges from this research demonstrates the reasons behind the limitations of traditional, deterministic, and local continuum models.

  9. A failure modes, mechanisms, and effects analysis (FMMEA) of lithium-ion batteries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hendricks, Christopher; Williard, Nick; Mathew, Sony; Pecht, Michael

    2015-11-01

    Lithium-ion batteries are popular energy storage devices for a wide variety of applications. As batteries have transitioned from being used in portable electronics to being used in longer lifetime and more safety-critical applications, such as electric vehicles (EVs) and aircraft, the cost of failure has become more significant both in terms of liability as well as the cost of replacement. Failure modes, mechanisms, and effects analysis (FMMEA) provides a rigorous framework to define the ways in which lithium-ion batteries can fail, how failures can be detected, what processes cause the failures, and how to model failures for failure prediction. This enables a physics-of-failure (PoF) approach to battery life prediction that takes into account life cycle conditions, multiple failure mechanisms, and their effects on battery health and safety. This paper presents an FMMEA of battery failure and describes how this process enables improved battery failure mitigation control strategies.

  10. New method to determine process window considering pattern failure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Seung-Hune; Moon, Seongho; Ser, Junghoon; Kim, Young-Chang; Choi, Sung-Woon; Kang, Chang-Jin

    2010-09-01

    In this paper, new metric, acid concentration distribution image log slope (AILS) is suggested to predict pattern failure in photo lithography. By introducing AILS, pattern fidelity can be determined as numbers. With evaluating at the top 10% and bottom 10% of photo resist, various kinds of pattern failures are categorized and they can be predicted to be failed or not. The simulation results are compared with wafer experiment results and shows great prediction accuracy. In order to evaluate hot spot regarding pattern failure in all possible pitch and duty ratio, in-house image quality analysis tool is used and compared with wafer experimental results. Minimum normalized AILS (NAILS) to cause pattern bridge is larger than that to cause lift off. Both pattern failures are dependent of AILS and CD but the effect of CD on pattern failure is stronger than AILS's

  11. Failure of underground concrete structures subjected to blast loadings

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ross, C. A.; Nash, P. T.; Griner, G. R.

    1979-01-01

    The response and failure of two edges of free reinforced concrete slabs subjected to intermediate blast loadings are examined. The failure of the reinforced concrete structures is defined as a condition where actual separation or fracture of the reinforcing elements has occurred. Approximate theoretical methods using stationary and moving plastic hinge mechanisms with linearly varying and time dependent loadings are developed. Equations developed to predict deflection and failure of reinforced concrete beams are presented and compared with the experimental results.

  12. Heterogeneity: The key to forecasting material failure?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vasseur, J.; Wadsworth, F. B.; Lavallée, Y.; Dingwell, D. B.

    2014-12-01

    Empirical mechanistic models have been applied to the description of the stress and strain rate upon failure for heterogeneous materials. The behaviour of porous rocks and their analogous two-phase viscoelastic suspensions are particularly well-described by such models. Nevertheless, failure cannot yet be predicted forcing a reliance on other empirical prediction tools such as the Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Measurable, accelerating rates of physical signals (e.g., seismicity and deformation) preceding failure are often used as proxies for damage accumulation in the FFM. Previous studies have already statistically assessed the applicability and performance of the FFM, but none (to the best of our knowledge) has done so in terms of intrinsic material properties. Here we use a rheological standard glass, which has been powdered and then sintered for different times (up to 32 hours) at high temperature (675°C) in order to achieve a sample suite with porosities in the range of 0.10-0.45 gas volume fraction. This sample suite was then subjected to mechanical tests in a uniaxial press at a constant strain rate of 10-3 s-1 and a temperature in the region of the glass transition. A dual acoustic emission (AE) rig has been employed to test the success of the FFM in these materials of systematically varying porosity. The pore-emanating crack model describes well the peak stress at failure in the elastic regime for these materials. We show that the FFM predicts failure within 0-15% error at porosities >0.2. However, when porosities are <0.2, the forecast error associated with predicting the failure time increases to >100%. We interpret these results as a function of the low efficiency with which strain energy can be released in the scenario where there are few or no heterogeneities from which cracks can propagate. These observations shed light on questions surrounding the variable efficacy of the FFM applied to active volcanoes. In particular, they provide a systematic

  13. Inverter ratio failure detector

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wagner, A. P.; Ebersole, T. J.; Andrews, R. E. (Inventor)

    1974-01-01

    A failure detector which detects the failure of a dc to ac inverter is disclosed. The inverter under failureless conditions is characterized by a known linear relationship of its input and output voltages and by a known linear relationship of its input and output currents. The detector includes circuitry which is responsive to the detector's input and output voltages and which provides a failure-indicating signal only when the monitored output voltage is less by a selected factor, than the expected output voltage for the monitored input voltage, based on the known voltages' relationship. Similarly, the detector includes circuitry which is responsive to the input and output currents and provides a failure-indicating signal only when the input current exceeds by a selected factor the expected input current for the monitored output current based on the known currents' relationship.

  14. Heart failure - discharge

    MedlinePlus

    ... any drugs you may be taking for Diabetes, high blood pressure, or other medical conditions you have. ... of the arteries Heart failure - overview Heart pacemaker High blood pressure Implantable cardioverter-defibrillator Smoking - tips on ...

  15. Common Cause Failure Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hark, Frank; Britton, Paul; Ring, Robert; Novack, Steven

    2015-01-01

    Space Launch System (SLS) Agenda: Objective; Key Definitions; Calculating Common Cause; Examples; Defense against Common Cause; Impact of varied Common Cause Failure (CCF) and abortability; Response Surface for various CCF Beta; Takeaways.

  16. Types of Heart Failure

    MedlinePlus

    ... to be made. Here we delve into the importance of shared decision making. This content was last ... heart failure. Popular Articles 1 Understanding Blood Pressure Readings 2 Sodium and Salt 3 Low Blood Pressure ...

  17. Classes of Heart Failure

    MedlinePlus

    ... to be made. Here we delve into the importance of shared decision making. HF Resources For Life ... heart failure. Popular Articles 1 Understanding Blood Pressure Readings 2 Sodium and Salt 3 Low Blood Pressure ...

  18. Premature Ovarian Failure

    MedlinePlus

    Premature ovarian failure (POF) is when a woman's ovaries stop working before she is 40. POF is different from ... There is no treatment that will restore normal ovarian function. However, many health care providers suggest taking ...

  19. What Causes Heart Failure?

    MedlinePlus

    ... the heart, leading to heart failure. High Blood Pressure Blood pressure is the force of blood pushing against the ... weaken your heart and lead to plaque buildup. Blood pressure is considered high if it stays at or ...

  20. Heart failure - tests

    MedlinePlus

    CHF - tests; Congestive heart failure - tests; Cardiomyopathy - tests; HF - tests ... An echocardiogram (Echo) is a test that uses sound waves to create a moving picture of the heart. The picture is much more detailed than a plain ...

  1. Kidney (Renal) Failure

    MedlinePlus

    ... renal function using ureteral stenting, nephrostomy, surgery or dialysis. What is kidney (renal) failure? How is kidney ... as a urinary stent or kidney stone removal. Dialysis , including hemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis: These procedures remove ...

  2. Failure to thrive

    MedlinePlus

    ... at puberty. Symptoms of failure to thrive include: Height, weight, and head circumference do not match standard ... or 20% below the ideal weight for their height Growth may have slowed or stopped The following ...

  3. Heart failure - overview

    MedlinePlus

    ... Your heart muscle is stiff and does not fill up with blood easily. This is called diastolic heart failure. As the heart's pumping becomes less effective, blood may back up in other areas of the body. Fluid ...

  4. What Causes Respiratory Failure?

    MedlinePlus

    ... easily move oxygen into your blood and remove carbon dioxide from your blood (gas exchange). This can cause a low oxygen level or high carbon dioxide level, or both, in your blood. Respiratory failure ...

  5. Equipment Failure Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    1980-01-01

    Tennessee Eastman uses NASTRAN to minimize lost production by pinpointing the causes of equipment failures and preventing recurrences. An example of the program's utility involves a large centrifugal fan which developed cracks during start-ups and shutdowns. This information prompted redesign of the fan. Tennessee Eastman has made extensive use of NASTRAN, both as failure analysis tool and as an aid in redesigning production hardware.

  6. Genesis Failure Investigation Report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Klein, John

    2004-01-01

    The-Genesis mission to collect solar-wind samples and return them to Earth for detailed analysis proceeded successfully for 3.5 years. During reentry on September 8, 2004, a failure in the entry, descent and landing sequence resulted in a crash landing of the Genesis sample return capsule. This document describes the findings of the avionics sub-team that supported the accident investigation of the JPL Failure Review Board.

  7. Pathophysiology of Heart Failure.

    PubMed

    Tanai, Edit; Frantz, Stefan

    2015-01-01

    Heart failure